tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33621514224497208412024-03-19T04:48:00.236-04:00global glass onionreality is only those delusions that we have in common...rjshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15681812432224138582noreply@blogger.comBlogger761125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3362151422449720841.post-71076479406208337612024-03-16T23:12:00.006-04:002024-03-17T02:34:43.383-04:00week ending Mar 16Fed's cautious approach to cutting rates reinforced by new inflation reading --Fresh evidence of sticky inflation released Thursday will likely reinforce the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to rate cuts and could add to questions about whether interest rates will remain elevated for longer than expected in 2024. "Given the stickier than expected nature of inflation, it’s going to be veryrjshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15681812432224138582noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3362151422449720841.post-67671155567275507392024-03-09T22:42:00.001-05:002024-03-10T00:31:34.477-05:00week ending Mar 9Watch Live: Fed Chair Powell Delivers Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report To Congress (video, 3:30) In prepared remarks, released ahead of his 'Humphrey-Hawkins' testimony this morning, Fed Chair Powell reiterated to lawmakers that the US central bank is in no rush to cut interest rates until policymakers are convinced they have won their battle over inflation.“The committee does not expect that rjshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15681812432224138582noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3362151422449720841.post-27610946002406924282024-03-02T22:21:00.006-05:002024-03-03T02:02:13.944-05:00week ending Mar 2Fed's Williams says a debate around three 2024 cuts is reasonable, US PCE due - --
Fed's Williams (voter) said there is still some ways to go before hitting the 2% inflation target and sees a likely uneven path back to 2% inflation, while he said will let the incoming economic data determine the monetary policy path. Williams said the debate over rate cuts is a sign of progress on lowering rjshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15681812432224138582noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3362151422449720841.post-82637578723068213992024-02-24T22:22:00.004-05:002024-02-25T02:16:18.729-05:00week ending Feb 24FOMC Minutes: "Most participants noted the risks of moving too quickly to ease the stance of policy" - From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 30–31, 2024. Excerpt: In discussing risk-management considerations that could bear on the policy outlook, participants remarked that while the risks to achieving the Committee's employment and inflation goals were rjshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15681812432224138582noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3362151422449720841.post-60588566282204465502024-02-17T22:45:00.004-05:002024-02-18T02:34:55.181-05:00week ending Feb 17
Fed seen deferring rate cuts as inflation stays elevated --Federal Reserve policymakers looking for more evidence that price pressures are easing got little of that on Tuesday, after a government report showed consumer inflation ran higher than expected last month. The consumer price index rose 3.1% in January from a year earlier, down from its 3.4% pace in December but more than the 2.9% rjshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15681812432224138582noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3362151422449720841.post-23627168272226922882024-02-10T23:09:00.001-05:002024-02-11T02:35:54.349-05:00week ending Feb 10Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$1.34 Trillion from Peak, to $7.63 Trillion, Lowest since March 2021 By Wolf Richter The Fed’s Quantitative Tightening continued on track in January. Total assets on the Fed’s balance sheet dropped by $51 billion in December, to $7.63 trillion, the lowest since March 2021, according to the Fed’s weekly balance sheet today. Since the end of QE in April 2022, the Fed has shedrjshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15681812432224138582noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3362151422449720841.post-53669243931515764672024-02-03T22:33:00.002-05:002024-02-05T16:38:25.679-05:00week ending Feb 3FOMC leaves rates unchanged, drops tightening language -- The Federal Open Market Committee left the fed funds rate unchanged Wednesday, disappointing public officials advocating for a quick start to cuts that officials have made plans for this year."The committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is movingrjshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15681812432224138582noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3362151422449720841.post-83937429471510171862024-01-27T22:46:00.003-05:002024-01-28T02:25:52.421-05:00week ending Jan 27Fed to wind down emergency lending facility in March -- The emergency lending facility set up by the Federal Reserve to stem last spring's banking crisis will sunset starting in March.The Bank Term Fund Program, or BTFP, will stop making new loans on March 11, the central bank announced Wednesday night. Until then, banks and other depository institutions will still be able to borrow from the rjshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15681812432224138582noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3362151422449720841.post-59819477493655234002024-01-20T22:34:00.006-05:002024-01-21T02:26:47.927-05:00week ending Jan 20Fed’s Balance Sheet QT, Liabilities: RRPs -$1.78 trillion from Peak, to $590 Billion, but Reserves Rise to $3.6 Trillion as Liquidity Drains and Shifts - By Wolf Richter -- As the Fed’s Quantitative Tightening hums along on autopilot, its assets have fallen by nearly $1.3 trillion as of its weekly balance sheet released on Thursday, and its liabilities have fallen in equal amounts. The dropping rjshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15681812432224138582noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3362151422449720841.post-17680892171333076642024-01-13T22:23:00.002-05:002024-01-14T02:06:46.485-05:00week ending Jan 13New York Fed president says central bank not close to ending QT - — Recent developments on the Federal Reserve's balance sheet have some officials and analysts eyeing the end of quantitative tightening efforts. But one Fed leader says not to expect policy changes anytime soon. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams, in a speech delivered Wednesday, said he does not expect the rjshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15681812432224138582noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3362151422449720841.post-24075831809864959072024-01-06T22:53:00.005-05:002024-01-08T14:30:17.586-05:00week ending Jan 6Fed Minutes Push Back On Powell's Dovish Pivot --The Fed Minutes appear to be far less dovish than Powell suggested.
No sign of imminent rate cuts: Policymakers say their projections imply reductions “would be appropriate by the end of 2024” and several suggest rates could stay at current level for longer than they currently anticipate
The benchmark rate was seen as likely at or near its rjshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15681812432224138582noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3362151422449720841.post-62427412871318194332023-12-30T22:51:00.003-05:002023-12-31T02:08:59.560-05:00week ending Dec 30
Soft Landing -- by Robert Waldmann - Brad DeLong asked me if I had an explanation of how the US economy managed to land softly. He is confident that it is softly landing. This encourages me to actually try to do my job for once and act as a macroeconomist, and also to return to blogging here some. In the spirit of challenging reopening, I will indulge myself by skimping on links, simply rjshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15681812432224138582noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3362151422449720841.post-39475028785451162952023-12-23T23:12:00.005-05:002023-12-24T02:45:56.328-05:00week ending Dec 23Fed Members Fan Out to Douse Raging Rate-Cut Fires by Wolf Richter - All heck re-broke loose in the markets last Wednesday after the Fed announced that it would keep its five interest rates steady, with the top at 5.5%, and with the “dot plot” in its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) showing that 11 of the 19 participants expected three or more rate cuts in 2024 while 8 expected between zero rjshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15681812432224138582noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3362151422449720841.post-13163179988340842162023-12-16T22:31:00.004-05:002023-12-17T02:39:34.505-05:00week ending Dec 16FOMC Statement: No Change to Policy - Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC Statement: Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity has slowed from its strong pace in the third quarter. Job gains have moderated since earlier in the year but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the rjshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15681812432224138582noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3362151422449720841.post-35765410150114176662023-12-09T23:01:00.004-05:002023-12-11T12:21:33.148-05:00week ending Dec 9Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$1.23 Trillion from Peak, -$129 billion in November, to $7.74 Trillion, Lowest since April 2021 - The Fed’s Quantitative Tightening (QT) continues on track, and the unwinding of the March bank-panic measures took a leap forward as the FDIC paid off the rest of its loans from the Fed. Total assets on the Fed’s balance sheet dropped by $129 billion in November, to $7.74 rjshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15681812432224138582noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3362151422449720841.post-72486657258406807202023-12-02T22:56:00.005-05:002023-12-03T02:54:51.744-05:00week ending Dec 2Fed's Waller raises possibility of a rate cut by spring if inflation keeps slowing (AP) — A key Federal Reserve official raised the possibility Tuesday that the Fed could decide to cut its benchmark interest rate as early as spring if inflation keeps declining steadily. The official, Christopher Waller, a member of the Fed’s Board of Governors, cautioned that inflation is still too high and that rjshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15681812432224138582noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3362151422449720841.post-41519852367690972132023-11-25T23:27:00.004-05:002023-11-27T11:18:33.838-05:00week ending Nov 25The Fed’s balance sheet isn’t so boring after all - FT Alphaville - Like “watching paint dry”, but if the paint was the US banking system…All the will-they-or-won’t-they chatter about December rate hikes has taken the spotlight another important Federal Reserve policy tool: Balance sheet run-off. This process is meant to be like “watching paint dry” etc— at least compared to the Bank of England’srjshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15681812432224138582noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3362151422449720841.post-59956255022822289352023-11-18T22:53:00.003-05:002023-11-19T02:26:56.540-05:00week ending Nov 18Fed will cut interest rates deeply this spring, new estimate says - The Federal Reserve is likely to make significant cuts to interest rates next year beginning as early as March, according to a new estimate from UBS Investment Bank.Slowing inflation could enable a 2.75 percent decrease in the interest rate over the course of the year, nearly halving the current rate of almost 5.5 percent, UBS rjshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15681812432224138582noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3362151422449720841.post-45656599602704254342023-11-11T22:04:00.005-05:002023-11-13T13:07:23.551-05:00week ending Nov 11Fed's Powell: "Not confident" policy is tight enough, supply-side help may be finished (Reuters) - U.S. Federal Reserve officials "are not confident" that interest rates are yet high enough to finish the battle with inflation, and may be nearing the end of how much help they can expect in lowering price pressures from improvements in the supply of goods, services and labor, rjshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15681812432224138582noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3362151422449720841.post-47675942970830406552023-11-04T22:03:00.004-04:002023-11-12T18:50:32.292-05:00week ending Nov 4FOMC Statement: No Change to Rates -Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC Statement:Recent indicators suggest that economic activity expanded at a strong pace in the third quarter. Job gains have moderated since earlier in the year but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated. The U.S. banking rjshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15681812432224138582noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3362151422449720841.post-43877183006008814842023-10-28T22:59:00.003-04:002023-10-29T02:18:56.374-04:00week ending Oct 28The Federal Reserve may not hike interest rates next week, but consumers are unlikely to feel any relief - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce it will leave rates unchanged at the end of its two-day meeting next week, even though the central bank's preferred inflation indicator remains well above the 2% target rate. Late last month, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said "inflation is still rjshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15681812432224138582noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3362151422449720841.post-35455977198440170582023-10-21T23:30:00.000-04:002023-10-24T04:38:38.843-04:00week ending Oct 21Fed’s Powell: High inflation and growth could mean more rate hikes - The economy continues to dash expectations for growth, hiring and consumer spending, complicating the Federal Reserve’s fight to tame inflation and raising questions about whether Americans are less susceptible to higher interest rates than ever before. Get a curated selection of 10 of our best stories in your inbox every rjshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15681812432224138582noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3362151422449720841.post-28351270967987118692023-10-14T22:42:00.004-04:002023-10-15T02:38:17.452-04:00week ending Oct 14Top Fed officials nod to higher bond yields as cause for caution on rates - (Reuters) - Top ranking Federal Reserve officials indicated Monday that rising yields on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, which directly influence financing costs for households and businesses, could steer the Fed from further increases in its short-term policy rate and substitute the work done by financial markets for rjshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15681812432224138582noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3362151422449720841.post-72517107356449507582023-10-07T21:36:00.006-04:002023-10-08T01:27:48.872-04:00week ending Oct 7Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$1.0 Trillion from Peak, to $7.96 Trillion, Lowest since June 2021. In September Alone -$146 billion by Wolf Richter - (see graphs) This is a big milestone of the Fed’s Quantitative Tightening (QT): Total assets dropped by $1.01 trillion since peak-QE in April 2022, to $7.96 trillion, the lowest since June 2021, according to the Fed’s weekly balance sheet today.In Septemberrjshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15681812432224138582noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3362151422449720841.post-21228572444866250242023-09-30T22:00:00.005-04:002023-10-01T01:26:09.254-04:00week ending Sep 30Absolute zero: Lessons learned from the Fed's zero interest rate experiment - Once a controversial move, lowering interest rates to effectively zero is now an accepted part of the Federal Reserve's crisis playbook, despite the havoc that a rapid increase in rates has wreaked on the housing market and banks' balance sheets. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he would not hesitate to take rates to their rjshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15681812432224138582noreply@blogger.com0