FOMC leaves rates unchanged, drops tightening language -- The Federal Open Market Committee left the fed funds rate unchanged Wednesday, disappointing public officials advocating for a quick start to cuts that officials have made plans for this year."The committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%," the FOMC said in a statement issued at the end of its two-day meeting on Friday.What may be more important is what was not in the statement."They removed any language about the potential for future rate hikes," Melissa Cohn, regional vice president of William Raveis Mortgage, noted in an email.Fed Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed the growing consensus on a cut in a subsequent press conference but also said that another meeting will likely pass without one."I don't think it's likely that the committee will reach a level of confidence by the time of the March meeting," he said.MBS pricing vacillated Wednesday but more due to weak results from New York Community Bancorp that revived concerns about the U.S. banking sector and impacted Treasuries, said Walt Schmidt, senior vice president of mortgage strategies at FHN Financial."It's bounced around a lot, but the Treasury market is way up right now. So mortgage rates could be lower tomorrow," he said in an interview late Wednesday.The Fed's comments about March likely did have a small impact on the mortgage market, but the outlook for rates remains uncertain with jobs data set for release Friday holding the potential for shifting it again, said Barry Habib, founder and CEO of MBS Highway.For the time being, although the Fed may not be interested in cutting in March, it looks like they could cut at the next meeting, Habib said."We're still forecasting that by May 1, we will get a rate cut, but now diminishing the odds for March," he said.The Fed's immediate inaction was largely anticipated but out-of-step with what some members of Congress such as Sen. Sherrod Brown, D.-Ohio, and lenders would like to see. The committee makes regular reports to Congress but has autonomy in its monetary policy decisions."Higher rates are locking Americans out of two primary means of building wealth — buying a home and starting or growing a small business," Brown said in a Jan. 30 letter to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell that CNN was the first to share.Weakness in housing is unlikely to be a priority for the Fed because valuations remain strong, according to Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan."Housing certainly is slow, but prices are still up because of supply issues. So I think they're not going to worry about that," Duncan said in an earlier interview.But the FOMC may be considering a policy change around the Fed's Treasury bond holdings, which aren't as directly tied to long-term mortgage rates but do factor into the outlook for housing finance, Duncan said."They have to be looking at the volume of Treasuries that's going to come into the market this year," he said.Policymakers may be particularly interested in this because the relationship between short- and long-term Treasuries has been inverted compared to the usual yield curve they form.More typically, long-term rates are higher than short-term rates, but the reverse has been true of late. That has raised concerns because it can be indicative of a pending recession and upends some typical rate relationships mortgage lenders and other businesses rely on in their funding models.The curve has gotten closer to its normal shape since policymakers indicated an intent to move into easing mode at some point this year (and for other reasons, Fannie recently backed off its call for a recession) — but it's still somewhat inverted.
FOMC Statement: No Change to Policy -- Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC Statement: Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have moderated since early last year but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks. In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective. In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.
Wow, Fed’s Statement Pushes Back against Rate-Cut Mania and End-of-QT Mania. Holds Rates at 5.50% Top of Range, QT to Continue as Planned By Wolf Richter The FOMC statement released today by the Fed after its two-day meeting pushed back aggressively against the market’s massive rate cut expectations this year – what we’ve come to call “rate-cut mania” – and it pushed back against the expectations of an early end of QT.The FOMC voted unanimously today to maintain its five policy rates, with the top of its policy rates at 5.50%, as had been broadly telegraphed in recent weeks in speeches, interviews, and panel discussions by Fed governors in their efforts to push back against the rate-cut mania that had broken out in early November last year. The last rate hike occurred at its meeting in July. The Fed added entirely new language to its statement, explicitly pushing back against the markets’ rate-cut mania and end-of-QT mania. I don’t think I have ever seen anything like this in an FOMC statement. It said:“In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.“The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent. “In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.”So QT continues, with the Treasury roll-off capped at $60 billion per month, and the MBS roll-off capped at $35 billion per month as per plan. The Fed has already shed nearly $1.3 trillion in assets since it started QT in July 2022. The Fed removed the paragraph about “tighter financial and credit conditions for households and businesses” due to the banking crisis weighing “on economic activity, hiring, and inflation.” It likely removed it because financial and credit conditions have loosened recently, and the banking crisis is no longer on the front-burner. Today, the Fed kept its policy rates at:
- Federal funds rate target range between 5.25% and 5.5%.
- Interest it pays the banks on reserves: 5.4%.
- Interest it pays on overnight Reverse Repos (RRPs): 5.3%.
- Interest it charges on overnight Repos: 5.5%.
- Primary credit rate: 5.5% (banks’ costs to borrow at the “Discount Window”).
Note the plateaus after the rate hikes. The one from June 28, 2006 through September 14, 2007 lasted nearly 15 months: Today’s meeting was one of the four meetings a year when the Fed does not release a “Summary of Economic Projections” (SEP), which includes the “dot plot” which shows how each FOMC member sees the development of future policy rates. SEP releases occur quarterly at meetings that are near the end of the quarter. The next SEP will be released at the March 19-20 meeting. At the last meeting in December, the median projection in the “dot plot” indicated three rate cuts in 2024. Here is the whole statement:
Here’s my Powell Cocktail, Not Quite in his Own Words - By Wolf Richter -- Powell’s press conferences that follow the FOMC meetings are somewhere between a hoot and a mess, because the reporters are trying by hook or crook, with often inane questions and speculative scenarios, to get Powell to say something that, when read in between the lines, could be twisted into “Powell was dovish,” which has been standard operating procedure for the past 18 months. So, while we wait for the “Powell was dovish” commentary to come out of the woodwork, I have created a cocktail that consists of quotes of what Powell said, and summaries of what he said, at today’s post-meeting press conference concerning inflation and rate cuts, all mixed together, stirred, not shaken, and served with a smile. Here’s the Powell cocktail, not quite in his own words: We’ve jacked up our policy rates by 525 basis points over the past two years and moved it well into restrictive territory, and we’ve done nearly $1.3 trillion in QT, we’ve significantly tightened monetary policy, and we have been seeing the effects on inflation. Inflation has eased over the past six months, and that’s very good, so I’d say our policy rate is likely at its peak for this tightening cycle, but we will need to see continuing evidence to build confidence that inflation is moving down sustainably toward our goal before we cut rates. But this cooling inflation could be a head fake, the decline in prices of durable goods might not last, and rent inflation might not play along with it, and other services might not play along with it, so we’re not rushing to cut rates, we’re going to watch this carefully. The economy is good, it has expanded faster in 2023 than we expected despite the tightened policy. And the labor market is rebalancing well, it’s still tight, and the pay increases are still strong, but it’s not out of whack like it was. We’re not trying to slow the economy, but we need to make sure that inflation actually stays on track to 2% core PCE, and we need to make sure that we don’t fall for a head fake. We want to take advantage of this situation and finish the job on inflation while keeping the labor market strong. So you ask, a rate cut in March? It’s premature to think rate cuts are right around the corner, we haven’t decided anything yet, it’s meeting by meeting, but no way Jose, I mean, that’s not my base case. That’s why we included that rate-cut mania push-back language in the statement, to signal clearly that, with strong growth, strong labor market, inflation coming down, the committee intends to move carefully as we consider when to dial back the restrictive stance. We will be data-dependent as we approach that question of when to begin to dial back restrictions. We will be looking at this meeting by meeting. But based on the meeting today, I would tell you that I don’t think it’s likely that we’ll reach a level of confidence by the time of the March meeting to identify March as the time to cut rates. But that doesn’t mean we wait around to see the economy tank, because it’ll be too late. We are really in risk-management mode – of managing the risk that we move too soon or move too late. So there is a risk that inflation will re-accelerate. When we look back, what will we see? Will inflation have dipped then come back up? Are the last six months flattered by factors that won’t repeat themselves? Of course, if inflation were to surprise by moving back up, we would have to respond, and that would be a surprise at this point, but that’s why we are keeping our options open here, and why we are not rushing. But I think the greater risk is that inflation will stabilize at a level meaningfully above 2%. That is more likely to me. Both of those are risks, but I think the more likely risk is that inflation will stabilize at a level meaningfully above 2%. If we see inflation being stickier, or higher, or those sorts of things, we would argue for cutting rates later. If we see an unexpected weakening in the labor market that would certainly weigh on cutting sooner. So you ask, what good reason is there to keep policy rates above 5%? As you know, almost every participant on the Committee believes it will be appropriate to reduce rates. We feel like inflation is coming down. What we are trying to do is identify a place where we’re really confident about inflation getting back down to 2% so we can then begin the process of dialing back the restrictive level. The median participant wrote down three rate cuts this year. But I think to get to that place where we feel comfortable starting the process, we need confirmation that inflation is in fact coming down sustainably to 2%. So you ask, will this rate cut when it finally comes, be just a one-off? You know, that will really depend on how the economy evolves. We’ll be looking at the economic data, and we’ll make our decisions based on that. There are risks that would cause us to go slower, for example, stronger inflation. And there are risks that would cause us to go faster or sooner, for example, a weakening in the labor market or very persuasive lower inflation. So we will just be reacting to the data. That is the only way we can really do this.
Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$1.34 Trillion from Peak, to $7.63 Trillion, Lowest since March 2021 | Wolf Street By Wolf Richter -- The Fed’s Quantitative Tightening continued on track in January. Total assets on the Fed’s balance sheet dropped by $51 billion in December, to $7.63 trillion, the lowest since March 2021, according to the Fed’s weekly balance sheet today. Since the end of QE in April 2022, the Fed has shed $1.34 trillion. The Fed re-affirmed QT explicitly in yesterday’s FOMC statement and inPowell’s press conference.And the Fed finally shut down the arbitrage opportunity at the bank-bailout facility, the BTFP, that had opened up in early November when longer-term yields plunged. We’ll get to this mess in a moment. But in the first three weeks of January before the loophole was closed, banks ran up $27 billion in BTFP loans, which is why total assets dropped by only $50 billion in January, and not by close to $90 billion. During QT #1 between November 2017 and August 2019, the Fed’s total assets dropped by $688 billion, while inflation was below or at the Fed’s target (1.8% core PCE in August 2019), and the Fed was just trying to “normalize” its balance sheet. Now inflation has come down a lot, driven by price drops in durable goods, and a plunge in energy prices, but it’s still rocking and rolling in services, with “core services” CPI at an annualized rate of over 5%. QT on autopilot. Treasury securities: -$61 billion in January, -$1.08 trillion from peak in June 2022, to $4.69 trillion, the lowest since December 2020. The Fed has now shed 33% of the $3.27 trillion in Treasury securities that it had added during its pandemic QE. Treasury notes (2- to 10-year securities) and Treasury bonds (20- & 30-year securities) “roll off” the balance sheet mid-month and at the end of the month when they mature and the Fed gets paid face value. The roll-off is capped at $60 billion per month, and about that much has been rolling off, minus the inflation protection the Fed earns on Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) which is added to the principal of the TIPS. The function of Treasury bills to steady the pace of QT. These short-term securities (1 month to 1 year) are included in the $4.69 trillion of Treasury securities on the Fed’s balance sheet. The Fed lets them roll off (doesn’t replace them when they mature) if not enough longer-term Treasury securities mature and roll off to get to the $60-billion monthly cap. As long as the Fed has T-bills, the roll-off of Treasury securities can reach the cap of $60 billion every month. When the Fed runs out of T-bills to fill in the gaps, the Treasury roll-off will start to fall below the $60 billion cap. From March 2020 through the ramp-up of QT, the Fed held $326 billion in T-bills that it constantly replaced as they matured (flat line in the chart). In September 2022, T-bills first started rolling off to fill in the gap to get the Treasury roll offs to $60 billion a month. In December, $6 billion in T-bills rolled off, reducing them to $210 billion. Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS): -$15 billion in January, -$323 billion from the peak, to $2.42 trillion, the lowest since August 2021. The Fed has now shed 24% of the MBS it had added during pandemic QE. The Fed only holds government-backed MBS, and taxpayers carry the credit risk. MBS come off the balance sheet primarily via pass-through principal payments that holders receive when mortgages are paid off (mortgaged homes are sold, mortgages are refinanced) and when mortgage payments are made.
Powell says balance sheet will get a look in March as rates stay put — The Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee Wednesday left interest rates — already at a two-decade high — unchanged, and further cast doubt on whether a rate cut would come at its next meeting in March. Even so, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell suggested in a press conference following the FOMC meeting that rate cuts may come later this year."We believe that our policy rate is likely at its peak for this tightening cycle, and that if the economy evolves broadly as expected, it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraints at some point this year," he said. But the data that the FOMC uses to decide the time is right to cut rates has not yet suggested that rates are too high, Powell said, and would be unlikely to change significantly between Wednesday's meeting and the next FOMC meeting in March. "I don't think it's likely that the committee will reach a level of confidence by the time of the March meeting to identify March as the time to do that," he said. "But that's to be seen." FOMC's Wednesday decision will hold the Fed's benchmark interest rate steady between 5.25 and 5.5 percent. The Fed clarified that it wants to see more progress on inflation before it commits to more cuts. Officials, including Fed Gov. Christopher Waller, suggested earlier this month that the Fed should lower interest rates as inflation falls. "The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%," the Fed said in its post-meeting statement on Wednesday.Powell did say that the FOMC will begin considering whether to slow the pace of quantitative tightening — letting securities roll off its balance sheet — at the March meeting, but insisted that any discussions about adjustments to the balance sheet will happen independently from conversations about rate changes, Powell said. "We see those as independent tools," he said. "If you're normalizing policy, you might be reducing rates but continuing to run off the balance sheet. In both cases that is normalization, but from a strict monetary policy standpoint you could say that we're loosening and not tightening, so that could happen." The Fed's decision comes as election-year politics are beginning to take hold in earnest, bringing heightened scrutiny on the central bank and its monetary policy decisions. While President Joe Biden has touted a generally improving economy, some progressives — including Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown — are pressing regulators on high costs, particularly around housing.
Letter to the editor: The Fed needs to be more careful with its 'money printer' | American Banker -- 2024 is anticipated to be the year of victory in combating inflation and a light at the end of the tunnel for record level interest rates. The Federal Reserve is expected to reduce rates three times in 2024 and potentially up to 10 times over the next two years. The difficulty in going into 2024 is that any interest-rate-sensitive segment of the economy (which is essentially the vast majority of the economy) will continue to take a wait-and-see approach until a meaningful reduction in interest rates occurs. Economic statistics last year showed signs of a strong economy, but statistics can easily be manipulated to serve a specific agenda. Take, for instance, real estate. Real estate is the backbone of the U.S. GDP between construction, finance, real estate transactions and so much more. 2023 was one of the most stagnant years for real estate in the country's history. We saw housing transaction volume plummet drastically due to an ultra-aggressive increase in interest rates. We saw three of the largest bank failures in U.S. history with interest rates being a significant factor leading to their demise. We have a commercial real estate crisis on the horizon, predominantly in the office sector, which was prompted by the COVID-19 pandemic and compounded by interest rates.While some may say these actions were needed to combat inflation and the concerns mentioned above are simply collateral damage, the Fed must go into 2024 remembering that printing $7 trillion in less than two years is the sole reason we ever got to this point. The most basic lesson in economics is supply and demand. Since the pandemic, the supply of the U.S. dollar has increased by 40%. This was not earned money; this was money that was printed and handed out. The chair of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, has acknowledged the system was flooded with money, but has not acknowledged this is the reason Americans had to deal with inflation at its highest level in 40 years. As we go into the New Year, we ask the Federal Reserve to make a New Year's resolution that responsibility for the money printing machine in Washington is not to be taken lightly. Next time, let's not treat our currency like Monopoly money. Pierre E. Debbas, Managing Partner, Romer Debbas
Great to Have a Good Job Market with Surging Wages, but Rate-Cut Mania Takes a Hit. And We Fret about Inflation Reheating | By Wolf Richter -- The employment data today poured some cold water on the raging Rate-Cut Mania: The 10-year yield spiked by 17 basis points within a couple of hours (but surely, they’re going to try to brush the employment data off too,like they’re trying to brush off the FOMC’s push-back statement and Powell’s post-meeting press conference): The employment data, released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, was fine; it was as you’d expect from an economy that is growing at a good pace. The number of payroll jobs created was revised up for the entire year 2023 by 359,000 jobs. And in January, an additional 353,000 jobs were created, after the upwardly revised 333,000 jobs in December. So businesses are hiring on net at a very solid pace. That acceleration over the past two months is now visible in the chart: The acceleration can also be seen in the three-month moving average, which irons out some of the month-to-month squiggles. The 3MMA rose by 289,000 in January, the biggest increase since March last year, and bigger than any increase in the years before the pandemic, after it had already increased by 227,000 in December. So this is not just a blip: To be able to hire and retain these workers, employers have re-accelerated their wage increases. We’ve been talking about this for a few months, and it just keeps powering higher, which is great for workers (but not so great for companies, whose costs are rising), and it’s great for consumer spending – these wage increases will power consumer spending nicely, which is great for GDP and overall economic growth. But it’s also one of the potential fuels for consumer price inflation. Average hourly earnings of all employees jumped by 0.55% in January from December, the biggest increase since March 2022. That translates into an annualized increase of 6.8%. The three-month-moving average jumped by 0.44%, which translates into an annualized increase of 5.4%, the hottest since May 2022: On a year-over-year basis, average hourly earnings rose by 4.5%, up from 4.3% in December, November, and October, thereby marking the re-acceleration even on a year-over-year basis: It’s not just the top 10% or whatever who get the wage increases. Average hourly earnings of “production and non-supervisory employees” jumped by 0.44% in January from December, which translates into an annualized rate of 5.4%. These “production and non-supervisory employees” – the bulk of total employment but not management types – are working supervisors and all employees in nonsupervisory roles, such as construction workers, plumbers, cleaning staff, factory workers, engineers, designers, doctors and nurses, teachers, office workers, sales people, bartenders, technicians, drivers, retail workers, wait staff, etc. In terms of the three-month moving average, it jumped by 0.42%, an annualized increase of 5.2%, the third month in a row of acceleration: These types of wage increases are not, as Powell would say, consistent with 2% inflation. In other words, they’re providing fuel for increased demand from consumers, and for increased consumer spending, which is great, but this increased demand also provides further inflationary pressures. And then there is the element of rising labor costs in products and services that employers will make every effort to pass on to consumers, and consumers, armed with these wage increases, might be willing to pay them, which translates directly into higher consumer price inflation. And then Powell gets to re-explain to the reporters why these kinds of wage increases “are not consistent with 2% inflation,” and why “we will be very careful… etc. etc.” The number of unemployed workers keeps dropping. Unemployment is another key metric for the Fed. The headline unemployment rate remained at 3.7% which is historically low. And going a little into the weeds, we see that the number of unemployed people who want to work dipped for the third month in a row to 6.25 million. This is a reversal because it had been rising from very low levels of 5.79 million a year ago to a still low 6.38 million in October. But since October, the number has been dropping again – a sign of the reacceleration of the labor market that we have seen elsewhere, including in wages. The blue line shows the monthly data, the red line shows the 3MMA. The reversal is now getting clearer, indicating that the labor market is beginning to retighten just a tad:
The Fed Prepares For A Bank Crisis While Telling Americans The Economy Is Strong - -- Last Thursday, Bloomberg reported that federal regulators are preparing a proposal to force US banks to utilize the Federal Reserve’s discount window in preparation for future bank crises. The aim, notes Katanga Johnson, is to remove the stigma around tapping into this financial lifeline, part of the continuing fallout from the failures of several significant regional banks last year.This new policy is reminiscent of the Fed’s actions during the 2007 financial crisis, where financial authorities encouraged large banks to tap into the discount window, taking loans directly from the Federal Reserve, to make it easier for distressed banks to do the same. The hesitancy from financial institutions to tap into this source of liquidity is justified. If the public believes a bank needs support from the Fed, it is rational for depositors to flee the bank. The Fed’s explicit aim is to provide cover from at-risk banks, trying to hold off bank runs that are an inherent risk in our modern fractional reserve banking system.By strong-arming healthy banks to comply, the Fed is escalating moral hazard and leaving customers more vulnerable. They are deliberately trying to remove a signal of institutional risk. The regulator’s concerns about bank fragility are justified. The Fed’s low-interest rate environment meant financial institutions seeking low-risk assets bought up US treasuries with very low yields. As inflationary pressures forced rates upward, the market value of these bonds decreased in favor of new, higher-yield bonds. It was this pressure that sparked the failure of Silicon Valley Bank last year. Additionally, the state of commercial real estate is a further stress for regional banks, which are responsible for 80 percent of such mortgages. In the previous low-interest rate environment, investors viewed commercial real estate as “a haven for investors in need of reliable returns.” Unfortunately, this same period experienced major changes in consumer behavior. Online shopping, remote work, and shared office space increased at the expense of traditional brick-and-mortar locations. Covid lockdowns only further amplified these trends.As a result, commercial real estate debt is viewed as one of the most dangerous financial assets out there today, sitting right on the balance sheets of regional banks across the country.These stresses have had a major impact not only on this latest policy from federal regulators but the depth of their response to last year’s failures. Following the failure of SVB, the Fed created the Bank Term Funding Program, which allowed banks and credit unions to borrow using US Treasuries and other assets as collateral. This emergency measure reflected fears of other banks being at risk. The Fed has signaled its willingness to let this program expire in March, with the aim of transitioning banks to increasing their use of the discount window.
Warren urges Powell to cut rates to help alleviate housing costs - Senator Elizabeth Warren and three Democratic colleagues urged Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to lower interest rates to help bring down housing costs ahead of the central bank's policy meeting this week."High interest rates have aggravated the country's persistent crisis of housing access and affordability," the senators wrote in a letter dated Jan. 28. "As the Fed weighs its next steps in the new year, we urge you to consider the effects of your interest rate decisions on the housing market and to reverse the troubling rate hikes that have put affordable housing out of reach for too many."Warren, a Democrat from Massachusetts and a frequent critic of the Fed's rate-hike campaign, was joined by Colorado's John Hickenlooper, Nevada's Jacky Rosen and Rhode Island's Sheldon Whitehouse. The letter was first reported by CNN.The Fed raised interest rates to a range of 5.25% to 5.5% — a 22-year high — over the past two years in an effort to cool rapid inflation. The policy led the effective rate on a 30-year mortgage to top 8% last year, though it's since fallen from that peak.Warren and her colleagues argued higher mortgage rates have worsened a crisis in housing supply, and that higher rates are also putting upward pressure on rental costs. The Fed slowed down its pace of rate hikes last year and hasn't raised rates since July. Powell and his colleagues have signaled that the next move is likely a cut, with markets expecting that to come as early as the spring. Fed officials penciled in three interest-rate cuts this year in projections released in December.
Treasury Department Trying Very Hard to Push Down Yields with its Quarterly Refunding Announcements. So We Take a Look The actual actual increase in marketable Treasury securities is far higher than the “actual” increase announced in the “Marketable Borrowing Estimates.” By Wolf Richter 00 The Treasury Department’s Quarterly Refunding announcements, normally cause of a global yawn, have turned into a market-moving circus: Longer-term Treasury yields surged from August through October 2023 after the Treasury Department said in its Quarterly Refunding announcement at the beginning of August that it would issue a tsunami of longer-term Treasury notes and bonds. Then three months later, at the beginning of November, the Treasury Department attempted to undo some of the damage and said that it would shift the huge borrowing needs more to short-term Treasury bills, which caused longer-term yields to fall sharply.And today, the Treasury Department announced in its “Marketable Borrowing Estimates” that – despite the fiscal deficit that has ballooned in recent months – it would have to borrow less in Q1 than it had forecast in the October announcement, and that it would have to borrow relatively little in Q2. And yields fell again. Everyone likes a good market manipulation scheme to push up bond prices and push down longer-term yields?Today, in its announcement, the Treasury department said that:In Q1, it plans to add $760 billion in new debt to outstanding marketable Treasury securities, which is a huge amount, but that’s $55 billion lower that the estimate announced in October for Q1 ($816 billion), assuming a balance in its checking account – the Treasury General Account, or TGA – at the end of Q1 of $750 billion.It said the $55 billion reduction in borrowing needs was due to higher tax receipts than previously expected and a higher Q1 beginning balance in its TGA – which started Q1 at $766 billion (instead of the projected $750 billion).In Q2, it plans to add $202 billion to outstanding marketable Treasury securities, assuming an ending balance of the TGA of $750. On April 15, income taxes and estimated quarterly taxes are due, so there are usually huge inflows of tax receipts. On Wednesday, the Treasury Department will release the Quarterly Refunding details, including projections of the amounts of Treasury bills, notes, and bonds to be issued.The Treasury Department’s “actual” amounts of marketable securities added to the pile in Q3 and Q4 — the data released today, see screenshot — don’t quite match the actual increase in marketable securities.The total Treasury securities outstanding ($34.1 trillion currently) come in two portions: marketable securities ($27.0 trillion currently), which all kinds of investors buy and trade; and non-marketable securities ($7.1 trillion currently), which are held by US government pension funds, the Social Security Trust fund, etc. The Treasury department is talking about issuance of marketable securities. So the Treasury department said today that it added $1.01 trillion (“actual”) in Q3 to marketable securities and $776 billion (“actual”) in Q4, or $1.786 trillion combined. We marked these “actuals” in red on the “Sources and Uses Reconciliation Table” released today (excerpt; total table here):
Early GDP Tracking: Solid Start for Q1 -- From Goldman: We left our Q1 GDP tracking estimate unchanged on net at +2.8% (qoq ar) and our Q1 domestic final sales estimate also unchanged at +3.2%. [Feb 2nd estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 4.2 percent on February 1, up from 3.0 percent on January 26. [Feb 1st estimate]
Three American Troops Killed in Drone Attack in Jordan - Three US troops were killed by an overnight drone attack in northeastern Jordan, the first Americans to die by enemy fire in the region since President Biden threw the US’s weight behind the Israeli onslaught in Gaza.According to CNN, one-way attack drones hit Tower 22, a small US outpost in Jordan near the Syrian border. Over 30 troops were also wounded in the attack.Since mid-October, US bases in Iraq and Syria have come under attack over 150 times in response to US support for the Israeli slaughter in Gaza. The overnight drone attack in Jordan appears to be the first time Tower 22 was targeted.President Biden released a statement blaming the attack on “Iran-backed militant groups,” referring to Shia militias that operate in Iraq and Syria. Later in the day, Biden said the US “shall respond” but didn’t specify how.A spokesman for the Jordanian government initially said the attack happened in Syria, not in Jordanian territory. But later, Jordan appeared to confirm it happened on its side of the border.“Jordan condemned the terrorist attack that targeted an outpost on the border with Syria, killing three US soldiers and injuring two others from the US forces that are cooperating with Jordan in countering terrorism and securing the border,” Jordan News Agency reported.The New York Times reported last week that President Biden and his top aides thought it was just a matter of time before an American soldier was killed in one of the attacks on US bases. The report said that if an American were killed, the US would likely attack Iran directly, which could escalate the situation into a major war.The Pentagon has previously said it has no evidence that Iran has been directing attacks on US forces in the region, and Tehran has repeatedly denied that it’s been involved in the operations.
3 U.S. Service Members Killed, Others Injured in Jordan Following Drone Attack > Three U.S. soldiers were killed yesterday in Jordan, while more than 40 other service members were injured following an uncrewed aerial system attack at a military base near the Syrian border. Those service members were in Jordan to support Operation Inherent Resolve, which is the U.S. and coalition mission to ensure the defeat of ISIS. The three soldiers killed are Sgt. William Jerome Rivers of Carrollton, Georgia; Spc. Kennedy Ladon Sanders of Waycross, Georgia; and Spc. Breonna Alexsondria Moffett of Savannah, Georgia. All three were assigned to the 718th Engineer Company, 926th Engineer Battalion, 926th Engineer Brigade, Fort Moore, Georgia. The attack occurred in the early morning at the logistics support base located at Tower 22 of the Jordanian Defense Network. Approximately 350 U.S. Army and Air Force personnel are deployed to the base. The three soldiers were killed when a one-way uncrewed aerial system impacted their container housing units. "I am outraged and deeply saddened by the deaths of three of our U.S. service members and the wounding of other American troops in an attack last night against U.S. and coalition forces, who were deployed to a site in northeastern Jordan near the Syrian border to work for the lasting defeat of ISIS," Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III said in a statement released yesterday following the attack. "These brave Americans and their families are in my prayers, and the entire Department of Defense mourns their loss." During a briefing at the Pentagon today, Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh said that in addition to the three deaths, more than 40 service members were also injured in the attack. Of those, eight had to be evacuated.
U.S. beefing up air defenses at base in Jordan where 3 soldiers were killed in drone attack - The U.S. is sending additional air defenses to the base in northeast Jordan where three American soldiers were killedin a drone attack on Sunday, according to a U.S. official. The outpost that was hit had not been the target of previous attacks and thus its air defenses were not as strong as U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria that have been under constant threat of attack since October, the official said. The air defense system heading to the outpost is designed to intercept drones. About 350 U.S. Army and Air Force personnel are stationed at the outpost, known as Tower 22, according to the Defense Department. The Pentagon said Monday that the number of wounded had risen to more than 40 after a drone strike hit their sleeping quarters in the pre-dawn hours on Sunday. "People were actually in their beds when the drone impacted," Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh told reporters Monday. Singh said the attack was inconsistent with prior strikes because it hit living quarters and was early in the morning. The Defense Department is investigating how the drone evaded air defenses, she said. "We are trying to figure out how a one-way attack drone was able to evade air defenses and was able to kill three of our service members and injure dozens more," she said. Tower 22 did not have the same air defenses as the special forces base located about 15 miles north in al-Tanf, Syria, which has been under frequent attack. The deadly attack on Tower 22 was the first time a drone had landed on the Jordanian side of the border. Since Oct. 17, there have been at least 165 attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq, Syria and now Jordan by Iranian-backed groups.
Yet More US-Driven Escalations Toward War In The Middle East by Caitlin Johnstone - Well, it finally happened. The scores of attacks on US troops in the middle east in response to Israel’s US-backed atrocities in Gaza have resulted in American deaths, just as critics of US foreign policy have been saying would happen for months. At least now we can stop bracing for it, I guess. Antiwar’s Dave DeCamp, among those who have long warned of this eventuality, writes the following: “Three US troops were killed by an overnight drone attack in northeastern Jordan, the first Americans to die by enemy fire in the region since President Biden threw the US’s weight behind the Israeli onslaught in Gaza.“According to CNN, one-way attack drones hit Tower 22, a small US outpost in Jordan near the Syrian border. Over 30 troops were also wounded in the attack.“Since mid-October, US bases in Iraq and Syria have come under attack over 150 times in response to US support for the Israeli slaughter in Gaza. The overnight drone attack in Jordan appears to be the first time Tower 22 was targeted.” The Biden administration immediately claimed the attack was backed by Iran, with profoundly influential news agencies like AP and Reuters regurgitating this claim as established fact in their headlines immediately thereafter. As DeCamp notes in the aforementioned article, back in October a US officialacknowledged to CNN that that there’s actually a “persistent intelligence gap” as to how much these Shia militias are in fact beholden to the orders of Tehran, but apparently this attack being linked to Iran is now being treated as established gospel truth anyway. This attribution has allowed perpetually war-horny Republican senators Lindsey Graham, Tom Cotton and John Cornyn to call on Biden to attack Iran directly. US officials actually told the press last week that Biden would consider direct strikes on Iran if and when the attacks on US troops led to American deaths, with The New York Times reporting the Biden administration knew it was “only a matter of time” before this occurred. In a statement on the attacks Biden said the US “will hold all those responsible to account at a time and in a manner our choosing,” meaning yet another military escalation in the middle east is on its way under this murderous administration. A full-scale war with Iran would be the absolute worst-case scenario resulting from the violence which erupted in the middle east this past October, potentially with mass deaths on a scale that would make what’s been happening in Gaza look like child’s play.
Report: Drone that killed US troops in Jordan mistaken for US drone (AP) — U.S. forces may have mistaken an enemy drone for an American one and let it pass unchallenged into a desert base in Jordan where it killed three U.S. troops and wounded dozens more, officials said Monday.Details of the Sunday attack emerged as President Joe Biden faced a difficult balancing act, blaming Iran and looking to strike back in a forceful way without causing any further escalation of the Gaza conflict.As the enemy drone was flying in at a low altitude, a U.S. drone was returning to the small installation known as Tower 22, according to a preliminary report cited by two officials, who were not authorized to comment and insisted on anonymity,As a result, there was no effort to shoot down the enemy drone that hit the outpost. One of the trailers where troops sleep sustained the brunt of the strike, while surrounding trailers got limited damage from the blast and flying debris. While there are no large air defense systems at Tower 22, the base does have counter-drone systems, such as Coyote drone interceptors. Aside from the soldiers killed, the Pentagon said more than 40 troops were wounded in the attack, most with cuts, bruises, brain injuries and similar wounds. Eight were medically evacuated, including three who were going to Landstuhl Regional Medical Center in Germany. The other five, who suffered “minor traumatic brain injuries,” were expected to return to duty.
US Hawks Demand War With Iran After Attack on American Troops in Jordan - Warhawks in the United States wasted no time agitating for direct military conflict with Iran after a drone attack on a military base just inside Jordan's border with Syria on Sunday killed three American troops and injured dozens more.Both Republican and Democratic members of Congress called on U.S. President Joe Biden to quickly respond with strikes inside Iran, whichdenied any connection to Sunday's attack."The only answer to these attacks must be devastating military retaliation against Iran's terrorist forces, both in Iran and across the Middle East," said Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), a longtime supporter of war with Iran. "Anything less will confirm Joe Biden as a coward unworthy of being commander-in-chief."Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.) called Iran "an existential threat to the U.S. and our allies in the region" and said Tehran "must be held accountable for the murder of three U.S. soldiers."That sentiment was echoed by a number of lawmakers, including Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) and Sens. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.).United Against Nuclear Iran, a group chaired by former Sen. Joseph Lieberman, also demanded "a decisive U.S. military response against targets inside Iran." "The U.S. should attack and destroy Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) military and intelligence targets in Iran, as well as missile and drone bases where the Iranian regime’s proxies are trained," the group said."Those who have consistently counseled only violence to address the crisis unleashed on October 7 should be ashamed of the disastrous outcomes they have so far reaped."Biden claimed in a statement Sunday that "radical Iran-backed militant groups operating in Syria and Iraq" were responsible for Sunday's drone attack, but acknowledged that the U.S. is "still gathering the facts.""Have no doubt—we will hold all those responsible to account at a time and in a manner [of] our choosing," the president said.U.S. forces stationed in the Middle East have faced increasingly frequent attacks since Israel launched its large-scale war on the Gaza Strip following the deadly Hamas-led assault on southern Israel on October 7. Sunday marked the first time since October that American troops have been killed in a Middle East attack.The Biden administration has blamed the attacks on Iran-aligned militias and responded with airstrikes in Iraq and Syria, intensifying concerns that the U.S. is fueling a regionwide conflict. The administration has also launched a series of unauthorized strikes in Yemen in response to Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea.Despite the above, the Pentagon continues to insist that the U.S. is "not at war in the Middle East." Contrary to the growing calls for a military response to attacks on U.S. troops, analysts and progressive lawmakers have argued that the only way to halt the escalating violence in the region is to secure a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip, where Israeli forces armed by the U.S. have killed more than 26,000 people in less than four months. The Biden administration has repeatedly stonewalled international efforts to secure a cease-fire.
The Tower-22 Strike in Jordan Triggers US, Israel Into All-Front War – The Arabs and Iran Are Ready, the Russians Too - The Hamas offensive of October 7 caught the Israel Defence Forces asleep at their posts. This weekend’s drone strike against Tower-22, a US troop base in northeastern Jordan, caught the US Army troops asleep. The response, according to President Joseph Biden’s statement, is that “we will hold all those responsible to account at a time and in a manner our choosing….we know it was carried out by radical Iran-backed militant groups operating in Syria and Iraq.” General Lloyd Austin, the US Secretary of Defense, repeated: “Iran-backed militias are responsible for these continued attacks on U.S. forces, and we will respond at a time and place of our choosing.” The details of the Tower-22 attack, and Iran’s reinforcement at the Strait of Hormuz, reveal that the Arabs and the Iranians are ready and waiting. The Russians too. The drone attack on the US troop base known as Tower-22, in the northeastern corner of Jordan, caught the US forces, reportedly reservists, asleep. The base reportedly holds 350 Army and Air Force personnel. At least three have been confirmed killed; eight have been evacuated with life threatening injuries, according to US Central Command (CENTCOM); about three dozen have beencounted as wounded. The operational success of the strike for the attackers is strategic. Tower-22 is a logistics, supply, and rear guard post for the Al-Tanf base which US troops are operating thirty kilometres north across the border in Syria. The attack demonstrates that both Tower-22 and Al-Tanf, Jordan and Syria, are newly vulnerable to weapons which the US forces have failed to detect and neutralize. Just as significantly, the massive US airbase called Muwaffaq Salti, 230 kilometres west across Jordan, is also vulnerable now. For analysis of how these bases, and other anti-Palestinian targets in Jordan, are connected and targeted by the Axis of Resistance, read this from October. Biden’s statement said only “we are still gathering the facts of this attack”.Reporters of the New York Times were told by their official briefers that “the drone strike in Jordan on Sunday demonstrated that the Iran-backed militias — whether in Iran or Syria, or the Houthis in Yemen — remained capable of inflicting serious consequences on American troops despite the U.S. military’s efforts to weaken them and avoid tumbling into a wider conflict, possibly with Iran itself.”The newspaper added a warning against escalation from the Joint Chiefs of Staff at the Pentagon: “ ‘We don’t want to go down a path of greater escalation that drives to a much broader conflict within the region,’ Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said on Sunday. Asked in a pre-recorded session on ABC News’s This Week whether he thought Iran wanted war with the United States, General Brown, echoing assessments from the U.S. intelligence agencies, said, ‘No, I don’t think so.’ ”The official line in Washington on Sunday evening, according to its New York platform, is that “the Americans killed on Sunday were the first known fatalities from hostile fire in the region since the Oct. 7 attacks by Hamas…It was unclear on Sunday why air defences at the outpost failed to intercept the drone, which former military commanders said appeared to be the first known assault on the location since attacks on U.S. forces began soon after the Oct. 7 incursion.”
Iran denies role in deadly drone attack on U.S. troops in Jordan as Iran-backed group claims strikes nearby - Iran has denied it was behind a drone strike that killed three U.S. troops at a military base in northeast Jordan on Sunday, but an Iran-backed militia based in Iraq said it had carried out four attacks in the area. "Regional resistance factions do not receive orders from Iran, and Iran does not interfere in the decisions of the resistance to support Palestine or defend itself," Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani said at a press briefing Monday.The Iran-backed militia group Islamic Resistance in Iraq put out a statement Monday saying it had targeted a U.S. garrison at al-Tanf, just across the Jordan-Syria border from the U.S. Tower 22 base that came under attack over the weekend, as well as two other U.S. bases in the region and an Israeli oil facility.Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh on Monday blamed the attack on an Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-backed militia and said the U.S. was trying to determine which one."Iran continues to arm and equip these groups to launch these attacks, and we will certainly hold them responsible," Singh said.A U.S. defense official said initial reports indicated that a drone flew in low and slow at the same time that a U.S. drone was returning to the Tower 22 base from a mission. Because the auto-response features of the air defense system were turned off to avoid shooting down the returning American drone, there was little to no warning of the incoming attack.Most of the roughly 350 U.S. troops at the base were still in their sleeping quarters when the attack occurred in the early hours of the morning. The accommodations on the base offer very little structural protection from an incoming attack. More than 40 people were injured in the attack, Singh told reporters Monday.
US seizes upon deaths of troops in Jordan to justify escalation against Iran -- The deaths of three US Army reserve soldiers in Jordan Sunday have been used to launch a campaign within the US political and media establishment for military escalation targeting Iran. The Biden administration claimed the attacks were carried out by Kataib Hezbollah, a militia group the US asserts is backed by Iran. Iran has denied any link to the attacks. More than 45,000 US troops are deployed in the Middle East, associated with decades of US wars throughout the region that have collectively killed over one million people. The attack on US troops deployed on the other side of the world is being used to justify long-planned military escalations. Blaming the attack on a “radical Iran-backed militant groups,” US President Joe Biden declared, “We will hold all those responsible to account at a time and in a manner of our choosing.” Over the past two months, US imperialism has provoked a regional war in the Middle East, having already launched multiple strikes on Iraq, Syria and Yemen. Now, the US military is threatening to directly attack Iran, which would engulf the entire region in a bloodbath. The Biden administration is playing with fire, creating the conditions for a catastrophe. It has systematically provided funding, logistical support and political cover for Israel’s genocide in Gaza, knowing full well that this would provoke retaliation against US forces deployed throughout the region, whose deaths would be used as a pretense for further military escalation. In response to all criticism of its provocative actions, the Biden administration has responded by declaring that it has no intention of waging war against the countries it is militarily encircling. Asked repeatedly at Monday’s press briefing whether the US government is “actively considering potential attacks inside Iran,” White House National Security spokesman John Kirby repeatedly replied, “We are not looking for a war with Iran.” Notably, on January 12, Kirby used the exact same language with regard to Yemen, declaring, “We’re not interested in a war with Yemen.” And yet, the United States has carried out dozens of missile strikes inside Yemen over the past three weeks, on over half a dozen separate days. It seems that the best predictor of what country the US military will illegally bomb next is the one the US government declares it has absolutely no intention to wage war against. The most ridiculous version of this argument was presented in a White House briefing on January 16. A reporter noted repeated US statements that “we’re not looking to expand this conflict,” and asked, “How do you square that” with US attacks on Yemen that had just been carried out. To this, Kirby made the following response: It’s a very simple equation: By removing military capability from the Houthis, we are making it harder for them to conduct these attacks. ... So, the very act of taking these strikes, knocking out their capability—in some cases before they could use it—that is, by definition, taking the tensions down. In this Orwellian language, any US attack on the military forces of any country is an act of “de-escalation.” And if the United States military were to attempt to destroy China’s and Russia’s military capacity by attacking all of their bases with nuclear weapons, that would be the most de-escalatory act of all. These absurd verbal gymnastics are an attempt to cover up the White House’s far-reaching plans for military escalation from the American population, which overwhelmingly opposes further US military intervention in the Middle East.
Senators Call for US to Bomb Iran in Response to Drone Attack in Jordan - Some US senators are calling for direct strikes on Iran in response to thekilling of three American troops in a drone attack in Jordan near the Syrian border.President Biden blamed the attacks on “Iran-backed militants,” referring to Iraqi Shia militias. But the militias are known to act independently, and there’s no evidence Iran was involved. But Iran hawks in the Senate are jumping at the opportunity to start a war with Iran.“The only answer to these attacks must be devastating military retaliation against Iran’s terrorist forces, both in Iran and across the Middle East. Anything less will confirm Joe Biden as a coward unworthy of being commander-in-chief,” Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) said in a statement.In a post on X, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) called for the Biden administration to “strike targets of significance inside Iran.” He added: “Hit Iran now. Hit them hard.” Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) also took to X to call for war with Iran. “Target Tehran,” he wrote.The New York Times reported last week that President Biden thought it was only a matter of time before an American soldier was killed in the region and that he might target Iran directly in response. Since mid-October, US forces have come under attack in Iraq and Syria over 150 times.
Are US, Iran already at war? -- More than 160 attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq, Syria and Jordan, 37 clashes in the Red Sea with the Houthis — and now five dead U.S. service members. America’s mounting proxy battle with Iran over the past three months is spurring questions about whether the countries are at war. It’s also raising questions about whether the U.S. can continue to hit back at Iranian-backed militia groups without seeking congressional authorization. The Biden administration argues it has successfully contained the Israeli war against the Palestinian militant group Hamas to Gaza and that there is not a wider conflict. But the sheer number of attacks on U.S. forces points to tensions spinning out of control. “It is already a larger conflict. It’s a question of degrees,” said Robert Murrett, a retired Navy vice admiral. But he said the fighting is “not out of control yet.” “Calling it a war is probably overstating things,” said Murrett, now a professor at Syracuse University. “But the tensions, the hostilities that exist between Iran and [the U.S.] are at the highest level they’ve been for some time.” The tit-for-tat battles reached a boiling point after a Sunday attack in Jordan, which the U.S. has said likely came from an Iranian-backed militia group in Iraq, Kata’ib Hezbollah. A suicide drone exploded in a housing unit at the Tower 22 base near Iraq and Syria, killing three Army soldiers. The U.S. also lost two sailors during a covert mission off the coast of Somalia to intercept Iranian missiles bound for the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen. While the mission was a success, two sailors died after falling into the rough waters. The deaths sparked mourning across the U.S. and calls for more action, particularly among Republicans, some of whom urged Biden to strike back inside Iran. Washington is already deploying significant resources to defend ships in the Red Sea from the Houthis and to carry out airstrikes in Yemen and Iraq, none of which have deterred the militia groups from stopping their attacks. The latest Houthi attack came Tuesday night, when a cruise missile launched from Yemen into the Red Sea came within a mile of a U.S. destroyer before it was shot down — the closest such an attack has come to an American vessel, CNN reported. And U.S. forces on Wednesday morning destroyed a Houthi surface-to-air missile that the group was preparing to launch into the waterway, U.S. Central Command said in a statement. Even the Biden administration admits the situation is veering dangerously close to a powder keg moment. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Monday warned that the “incredibly volatile” environment in the Middle East is as dangerous as it’s been in the region “since at least 1973, and arguably even before that.” President Biden has vowed to respond to the Jordan attacks, but the commander in chief also stressed he was trying to prevent the conflict from escalating. “I don’t think we need a wider war in the Middle East,” Biden told reporters Tuesday. “That’s not what I’m looking for.” When asked if the wider war was already here, Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh said she was “not discounting that tensions are high in the region by any means.” “These Iranian-backed groups are targeting our military members with the intention of trying to kill them,” she said at a Monday briefing. “But we don’t seek a war.” Iran also appears to be trying to pull away from a growing conflict. Iranian officials quickly denied any responsibility for the Jordan attack, claiming that Tehran does not give direct orders to the militia groups it backs.
Biden says he has decided on response to deaths of U.S. soldiers in Jordan - President Joe Biden said Tuesday that he has made a decision on how to respond to the drone attack that killed three U.S. soldiers and injured dozens of others at a base in northeast Jordan.As Biden departed the White House on Tuesday morning, a reporter asked him whether he had made a decision in response to the attack by Iran-backed militants Sunday. He replied, "Yes."Biden vowed Sunday to retaliate and “hold all those responsible to account at a time and in a manner [of] our choosing" for the deadly attack, which injured more than 30 soldiers.Asked whether he holds Iran responsible for the attack, he said he does “in the sense that they’re supplying the weapons to the people who did it.”The attack led to the first U.S. deaths at the hands of Iranian-back militant groups since the Israel-Hamas war began Oct. 7. The explosives-laden drone blew up near a shelter where some troops slept at a logistics support base in northeast Jordan, two U.S. officials told NBC News. Eight of the injured were evacuated from the country to receive higher-level care and are stable, U.S. Central Command said Sunday. Iran’s mission to the United Nations denied the country’s involvement in the drone strike.“Iran had no connection and had nothing to do with the attack on the U.S. base,” the mission said in a statement Monday published by the state news agency IRNA, Reuters reported.“There is a conflict between U.S. forces and resistance groups in the region, which reciprocate retaliatory attacks,” it added.In a statement Sunday, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for drone attacks on Al-Shaddadi base in Syria, Al-Rukban and Al-Tanf bases at the Syria-Jordan border and the Zevulun naval facility in Israel. It is unclear whether the Islamic Resistance in Iraq is responsible for the attack on U.S. troops in Jordan.
Rep. Massie Hints at Impeachment if Biden Starts a War With Iran - Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) on Wednesday appeared to threaten to pursue the impeachment of President Biden if he started a war with Iran.Massie posted a video from 2007 on X of then-Senator Biden threatening President George W. Bush with impeachment if he went to war with Iran without congressional approval.“I made it clear to the president that if he takes this nation to war in Iran without congressional approval, I will make it my business to impeach him,” Biden said in the video.In his post, Massie wrote: “In 2007, Sen. Biden put the President on notice that he would impeach him for going to war with Iran without Congressional approval. Consider this your notice [President Biden].”Massie’s post came amid reports that President Biden is planning to launch a weeks-long bombing campaign that could target Iranian assets outside of Iran in response to the drone attack in Jordan that killed three US troops. The Pentagon has admitted it has no evidence Iran was involved in the drone attack beyond its arming of the Shia militias the US believes was responsible. Another comment Biden made during the Trump administration related to Iran has surfaced amid the tensions. “Let’s be clear: Donald Trump does not have the authority to take us into war with Iran without Congressional approval. A president should never take this nation to war without the informed consent of the American people,” he tweeted on January 6, 2020, a few days after Trump killed Iranian Gen. Qasem Soleimani by drone strike in Baghdad.
Report: US Plans Weeks-Long Bombing Campaign Against Iranian Targets - US officials told NBC News that the US is planning to launch a weeks-long bombing campaign in the Middle East in retaliation for the drone attack in northeast Jordan that killed three American soldiers. The officials said that the targets are expected to include Iranian targets outside of Iran, and the campaign will involve strikes and cyber operations. Other reports have said the US is considering targeting Iranians in Iraq and Syria or the Iranian navy.While the potential targets are not inside Iran, direct attacks on the Iranian military could provoke a full-blown war between the US and Iran. The US is considering taking this course of action even though the Pentagon admitted it has no evidence Iran was directly involved in the drone attack in Jordan.The Pentagon has said the Jordan attack had the “footprints” of Kataib Hezbollah, one of the main Shia militias in Iraq. The US says that Iran is responsible only because it arms Kataib Hezbollah and other Shia militias. US officials told The New York Times that while Iran arms and funds the Shia militias, there’s no evidence Tehran is “calling the shots.”White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Wednesday that US intelligence suggests the drone attack was carried out by the Islamic Resistance of Iraq, a shadowy umbrella group of Iraqi Shia militias.The Islamic Resistance has taken credit for many of the 160 attacks that have been launched against US forces in Iraq and Syria since mid-October. The attacks started in response to US support for the Israeli slaughter in Gaza.
Iran Denies Role in Drone Attack That Killed Three US Troops - Iran has denied involvement in the drone attack in northeastern Jordan that killed three American troops and wounded at least 34.Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani said the resistance factions in Iraq and Syria were targeting US forces due to the US-backed Israeli massacre in Gaza, not because Tehran is directing them.“As we have clearly stated before, the resistance groups in the region are responding [to] the war crimes and genocide of the child-killing Zionist regime and… they do not take orders from the Islamic Republic of Iran,” he said. “These groups decide and act based on their own principles and priorities as well as the interests of their country and people.”US bases in Iraq and Syria have come under attack about 160 times since mid-October due to President Biden’s support for Israel. An umbrella group of Shia militias known as the Islamic Resistance in Iraq has taken credit for many of the operations. It’s unclear which specific Iraqi militias are members of the group.The Islamic Resistance in Iraq took credit for attacks on US troops in Syria on the same day three Americans were killed in Jordan. The group said they targeted areas near the Syria-Jordan border but did not say they targeted a US base inside Jordan.US officials say the attack hit Tower 22, a US base just inside Jordan on the Syrian border that supports the US occupation of eastern Syria. A Jordanian spokesman initially denied the attack targeted Jordan’s territory and claimed it hit the Al Tanf garrison across the border in Syria. But Jordan later released a statement that condemned a “terrorist attack” that killed three Americans who were stationed inside Jordan in an “advanced position” very close to the borders with Syria.
Pentagon Admits It Has No Evidence Iran Was Behind Drone Attack That Killed 3 US Troops in Jordan -The Pentagon on Monday said Iran “bears responsibility” for the drone attack in northeastern Jordan that killed three US troops but admitted it has no evidence that Iran was directly involved. Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh said the responsibility fell on Iran due to its support for Iraqi Shia militias the US believes carried out the attack.“In terms of attribution for the attack, we know this is an [Iran]-backed militia. It has the footprints of Kataib Hezbollah, but [we’re] not making a final assessment,” Singh said at a press conference. “Iran continues to arm and equip these groups to launch these attacks, and we will certainly hold them responsible.”When asked if the US knew Iran and Iranian leaders were “actually behind this attack, as in planned, coordinated, or directed it,” Singh admitted the US had nothing to show that.“We know that Iran certainly plays a role with these groups, they arm and equip and fund these groups. I don’t have more to share on — terms of an intelligence assessment on if leaders in Iran were directing this attack,” she said.Singh was again asked about the claim that Iran was behind the attack and said the US just knows that “Iran funds these groups” and had nothing more to add. Later in the press conference, she said Iran “bears responsibility” for the killing of three American soldiers.Also on Monday, The New York Times reported that US intelligence officials have no evidence Iran had advanced knowledge of the attack. “American intelligence officials say that while Iran provides weapons, funding and sometimes intelligence to its proxy groups, there is no evidence that it calls the shots — meaning it may not have known in advance about the attack in Jordan,” the report reads.Iran has strongly denied it was behind the attack and said the resistance factions were targeting the US forces in the region due to its support for the Israeli slaughter in Gaza. Since mid-October, US bases in Iraq and Syria have come under attack about 160 times, and the US has never produced evidence to show Iran was directing the operations.
Iraq's Kataib Hezbollah Suspends Military Operations Against US - Kataib Hezbollah, one of the main Shia militias in Iraq, has announced it’s suspending operations against US troops in Iraq and Syria.“We announce the suspension of military and security operations against the occupation forces,” Kataib Hezbollah said in a statement on Tuesday. The group said it was suspending the operations because it did not want to cause “embarrassment to the Iraqi government.”The Pentagon said it would ignore the announcement and that it would not change the US response to the drone attack in northeastern Jordan that killed three US troops. The Pentagon has said the attack had the “footprints” of Kataib Hezbollah, but the group has not taken credit.The US is also blaming Iran for the attack since it arms Kataib Hezbollah and other Iraqi militias, but the Pentagon has admitted it has no evidence Tehran was directly involved.According to Al Mayadeen, Kataib Hezbollah said Iran was not involved in its operations. “Our brothers in the Axis [of Resistance], especially in Iran, do not know the specifics of our jihadist work, and they have repeatedly declared opposition to our escalation against the US forces in Iraq and Syria,” said the group’s leader, Abu Hussein al-Hamidawi.Al-Hamidawi said Kataib Hezbollah would continue to work to defend Gaza through other means. US bases in Iraq and Syria have come under attack about 160 times since mid-October, according to the Pentagon. Most attacks have been claimed by the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a shadowy umbrella group of Iraqi Shia militias. The US has blamed Kataib Hezbollah for some of the other recent attacks and targeted the group with airstrikes.Kataib Hezbollah was founded in 2003 following the US invasion of Iraq and is part of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a coalition of Iraqi militias that was formed in 2014 to fight ISIS. The US and the PMF were on the same side during major battles against ISIS, and the PMF is still part of the Baghdad government’s security forces.
Iraqi Militia Suspends Attacks on US Forces, Paving Way for Troop Withdrawal - A militia group that the Biden administration blamed for the deadly attack on U.S. forces stationed at a shadowy base in Jordan said Tuesday that it would stop targeting American troops in Iraq, a move that could clear the way for the withdrawal of U.S. soldiers more than two decades after the 2003 invasion.“We announce the suspension of military and security operations against the occupation forces—in order to prevent embarrassment to the Iraqi government,” Abu Hussein al-Hamidawi, the leader of Kata’ib Hezbollah, said in a statement. “Our brothers in the Axis, especially in the Islamic Republic of Iran, they do not know how we conduct our Jihad, and they often object to the pressure and escalation against the American occupation forces in Iraq and Syria.”Pentagon officials have specifically named Kata’ib Hezbollah as one of the groups behind the drone attack on U.S. troops in Jordan over the weekend. U.S. President Joe Biden and administration officials have said they ultimately hold Iran responsible for the attack, accusing that country’s government of funding and arming Kata’ib Hezbollah and other militia groups in the region.Kata’ib Hezbollah’s leader said in his statement that the group has launched attacks on U.S. forces at its “own will, and without any interference from others.” Biden administration officials have admitted they have no evidence that Iran directed the Jordan attack.Biden told reporters on Tuesday that he has decided how to respond to the Jordan attack but declined to provide any details.Asked during a media briefing about Kata’ib Hezbollah’s statement, Pentagon Press Secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said he doesn’t “have a specific comment to provide, other than actions speak louder than words.”The drone attack on American forces in Jordan came a day after the U.S. and high-ranking Iraqi officials held their first round of formal talks on the process of removing the roughly 2,500 U.S. troops still deployed in the country.Analysts have argued that the continued presence of U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria has dramatically increased the likelihood of a broader regional war. The Intercept‘s Ken Klippenstein reported Tuesday that U.S. military personnel in Iraq received a memo this month instructing them to be “on standby to forward deploy to support troops in the case of on-ground U.S. involvement in the Israel-Hamas war.”Hisham al-Rikabi, an adviser to Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani,toldCNN on Tuesday that Kata’ib Hezbollah’s vow to suspend its attacks on U.S. forces “is the result of efforts made by” Iraq’s government to “ensure the smoothness of the negotiation process and in order to complete the withdrawal [of U.S. troops] from Iraq.”The New York Timesreported Tuesday that Kata’ib Hezbollah had previously ignored the Iraqi government’s requests to stop attacking U.S. forces, “but once the attack in Jordan on Sunday took American lives, Mr. Sudani demanded a complete halt from Kata’ib Hezbollah.”“Mr. Sudani reached out directly to Iran, according to a military strategist for the Revolutionary Guards who works closely with the Axis groups in Iraq,” theTimes added.Erik Sperling, executive director of Just Foreign Policy, said in response to al-Rikabi’s comments that, “if true, this is the least bad outcome.”
Report: Iraqi Government, Iran Pressured Kataib Hezbollah to Stop Attacking US - The Iraqi government and Iran pressured Kataib Hezbollah and other Iraqi Shia militias to suspend attacks against US forces in an effort to de-escalate tensions in the region, Reuters reported on Wednesday. Kataib Hezbollah, one of Iraq’s main Shia militias, announced on Tuesdaythat it was suspending operations against the US because it didn’t want to “embarrass” the Iraqi government. In its statement, Kataib Hezbollah said Iran had “repeatedly declared opposition to our escalation against the US forces in Iraq and Syria.”The announcement came as the US is preparing to respond to the drone attack in northeastern Jordan that killed three US troops. The US has not formally blamed Kataib Hezbollah but said the attack had the group’s “footprints.” The White House said on Wednesday that intelligence pointed to the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a shadowy umbrella group of Shia militias that Kataib Hezbollah is believed to be a part of.The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed most of the 160 attacks that have been launched against US forces in Iraq and Syria in response to US support for the Israeli slaughter in Gaza. The group has not officially taken credit for killing the three US troops but said it launched attacks in Syria near the Jordanian border that day.According to Reuters, killing US troops in Jordan was a step too far for the Iraqi government. Farhad Alaadin, adviser to Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, confirmed that the Iraqi government worked to de-escalate and get Kataib Hezbollah to agree not to attack the US.“Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani has been hard at work in the past few days, engaging with all relevant parties inside and outside Iraq,” Alaadin said, according to The Cradle. “All sides need to support the efforts of the Prime Minister to prevent any possible escalation.”
US military shoots down Iranian drones, Houthi missiles, over Gulf of Aden -- The USS Carney shot down three Iranian drones and one antiship ballistic missile Wednesday launched from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen, the U.S. Central Command said in a statement. The Houthi missile was headed toward the Gulf of Aden at about 8:30 p.m. local time. Forty minutes later, the USS Carney shot down three Iranian unmanned aerial vehicles nearby. The U.S. Central Command said there were no injuries or damage reported. The attack comes amid an uptick in tensions in the region. Houthis have been targetingcommercial ships and vessels in the Red Sea, prompting U.S. forces to respond with a series of precision strikes The Houthis say the attacks, which began in November, are intended to protest the Israel-Hamas war in the region, but many of the recent ships attacked have no direct ties to Israel. As a result, shipping companies have been forced to find alternative shipping routes, driving up oil prices and delaying the delivery of goods, raising concerns about the effect on the global economy. U.S. officials said earlier this week that U.S. troops have come under fire from Iranian-backed groups more than 160 times since late October. The attack also comes just a few days after three U.S. service members were killed and about 40 others injured in a deadly drone strike in Jordan on Sunday. Biden has pledged to respond to the attack in a “time and manner of our choosing” but has also made clear he does not seek a larger war.
US Navy Ship Had Close Call With Houthi Missile in the Red Sea - The US Navy destroyer USS Gravely had a close call with a Houthi missile in the Red Sea on Tuesday night, US officials told CNN. The officials said a cruise missile launched by the Houthis came within one mile of the Gravely, the closest one has come to a US warship. That means the missile got past the Gravely’s sophisticated Aegis defense system. The missile was downed by the Gravely’s Close-In Weapon System (CWS), a machine gun that’s designed for close-range interceptions and is one of the ship’s last lines of defense. The incident highlights the danger to US warships and Navy sailors deployed in the Red Sea to combat the Houthis. While a Houthi missile or drone has not successfully hit a US warship yet, it could just be a matter of time as the situation in the region continues to escalate. The US launched more strikes against the Houthis early Thursday morning Yemen time, marking at least the 12th time the US has bombed Yemen since President Biden started his new war against the Houthis on January 12. US Central Command claimed the strikes targeted a Houthi drone station. The escalations continued throughout the day on Thursday as CENTCOM said it downed a Houthi drone and destroyed a drone boat. Later, the Houthis targeted a British-linked cargo vessel, but CENTCOM said the missiles impacted the water and did not hit the ship. Since the US and the UK launched their first round of strikes against the Houthis, the situation has escalated dramatically. The Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, began targeting American and British commercial shipping and have vowed their operations won’t stop until the US backs down and Israel’s slaughter in Gaza ends.
US Launches 11th Round of Strikes Against Houthis in Yemen - The US launched more strikes against the Houthis on Wednesday, marking at least the 11th time the US has targeted Yemen since President Biden started the bombing campaign on January 12. US Central Command claimed the strikes targeted a Houthi surface-to-air missile. “US forces identified the missile in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen and determined that it presented an imminent threat to US aircraft,” the command said. Yemen’s Al-Masirah TV reported US and British strikes north of the city of Sadaa. The UK has joined the US for some of the bombings in Yemen, but CENTCOM did not say Britain was involved in the latest round. Also on Wednesday, the Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, said they fired missiles at the US Navy Destroyer USS Gravely. Houthi military spokesman Yahya Sarea said US warships will continue to be targeted “within the legitimate right of defending our country, our people, and our nation.” CENTCOM said the USS Gravely shot down one Houthi anti-ship missile on Tuesday night, but it’s unclear if it was the same incident mentioned by Sarea. Some members of Congress have criticized Biden for bombing Yemen without authorization and say he’s violating the Constitution. President Biden has acknowledged his bombing campaign was not working to deter the Houthis but vowed it would continue anyway. Since the first round of strikes against the Houthis, the situation has escalated dramatically as the Houthis began targeting American commercial shipping in response. The Houthis have made clear they would only stop attacks on Israel-linked commercial shipping if the slaughter in Gaza comes to an end.
House Lawmakers Tell Biden He Must Seek Authorization to Bomb Yemen - Nearly 30 bipartisan members of the House have sent a letter to President Biden urging him to get authorization from Congress before launching more strikes against the Houthis in Yemen.The letter, led by Reps. Ro Khanna (D-CA) and Warren Davidson (R-OH), said President Biden was violating the Constitution by launching a new war against the Houthis.“We believe the US’s unauthorized strikes in Yemen violate the Constitution and US statute. We ask that your Administration outlines for us the legal authority used to conduct these strikes, and we urge your Administration to seek authorization from Congress before conducting any more unauthorized strikes in Yemen,” the letter reads.“As representatives of the American people, Congress must engage in robust debate before American servicemembers are put in harm’s way and before more US taxpayer dollars are spent on yet another war in the Middle East. No President, regardless of political party, has the constitutional authority to bypass Congress on matters of war,” the letter says.Four senators sent a similar letter to President Biden that questioned his legal authority for the strikes.The US has now bombed Yemen 10 times since January 12. Britain joined the US in some of the strikes, but most have been unilateral US strikes. The latest US attack was conducted early Saturday morning Yemen time, according to US Central Command.CENTCOM claimed the strikes on Saturday targeted a Houthi anti-ship missile that was aimed at the Red Sea. Yemen’s Al-Masira TV reported the strikes targeted the Ras Issa port, Yemen’s main oil export terminal, which is located in the western Hodeidah province.The US strikes have done nothing to deter the Houthis, as they have broadened their attacks on commercial shipping to include American and British vessels. Before President Biden started bombing Yemen, the Houthis said they were only targeting Israel-linked shipping to protest the Israeli massacre in Gaza.A tanker with links to the UK was struck by a Houthi missile on Saturday and was on fire for several hours. The Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, have vowed they won’t back down and say the only way to reduce tensions is for the US-backed Israeli slaughter in Gaza to end.
'Dangerous': Pelosi Calls for FBI to Investigate Cease-Fire Supporters -- As The New York Timesreported Sunday that more than 1,000 Black American pastors have joined the widespread call for a cease-fire in Gaza, U.S. Rep. Nancy Pelosi suggested the demand was "Putin's message" and said the FBI should investigate groups that are speaking out about Biden's pro-Israel policies. On CNN, the former House speaker, a California Democrat, told Dana Bash that the "call for a cease-fire is [Russian President Vladimir] Putin's message" and said she thinks some of the protests that have erupted across the U.S. since October to demand the U.S. push for an end to Israel's killing of civilians in Gaza "are connected to Russia." "I think some financing should be investigated and I want to ask the FBI to investigate that," Pelosi said. A number of progressives pointed out that the demand for a cease-fire is hardly coming from the fringes of American society, but rather frommore than two-thirds of Americans in a November poll by Reuters/Ipsos. Three-quarters of Democrats in the survey backed a cease-fire, along with half of Republicans.The Times detailed calls from more than 1,000 Black pastors who represent hundreds of thousands of congregants across the U.S. and who have written open letters and spoken to White House officials at sit-down meetings in support of a cease-fire, warning that "it's going to be very hard to persuade our people to go back to the polls and vote for Biden." The Intercept reporter Prem Thakker pointed to other groups supportive of the call, including the Democratic parties of Arizona and Texas; the United Auto Workers, which endorsed Biden last week; and Doctors Without Borders.
Pelosi accuses anti-genocide protesters of being agents of Putin -In toxic comments that combine equal parts political blindness and malicious slander, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi appeared on national television Sunday morning to declare that the widespread protests against Israeli genocide in Gaza were actually financed and promoted by Russian President Vladimir Putin.Pelosi was responding to a question by host Dana Bash on CNN’s interview program “State of the Union,” about whether young people, Arab Americans and “progressives” might stay home rather than vote for Biden in November, because of their hostility to US-Israeli actions in Gaza. This exchange followed, according to the transcript posted by the network:
- PELOSI: Well, let me just say this, because I have been the recipient of their, shall we say, exuberances, and it’s as recently as in Seattle on Thursday, unfortunately wanted to disrupt our very exciting Democratic meeting there. They’re in front of my house all the time. … So let’s address that. But for them to call for a cease-fire is Mr. Putin’s message, Mr. Putin’s message. Make no mistake, this is directly connected to what he would like to see. Same thing with Ukraine. It’s about Putin’s message. I think some of these—some of these protesters are spontaneous and organic and sincere. Some, I think, are connected to Russia. And I say that having looked at this for a long time now, as you know.
- BASH: You think some of these protests are Russian plants?
- PELOSI: I don’t think they’re plants. I think some financing should be investigated. And I want to ask the FBI to investigate that.
Groups opposed to discrimination against Arabs and Muslims, like the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), denounced Pelosi’s comments. CAIR National Executive Director Nihad Awad said, “We are deeply disturbed by former House Speaker Pelosi’s comments. Rep. Pelosi’s claim that some of the Americans protesting for a Gaza ceasefire are working with Vladmir Putin sounds delusional and her call for the FBI to investigate those protesters without any evidence is downright authoritarian. “Sadly, Rep. Pelosi’s comments echo a time in our nation when opponents of the Vietnam War were accused of being communist sympathizers and subjected to FBI harassment. Hundreds of thousands of Americans, including many young people, progressive activists, and Jewish, Muslim, Palestinian, and Black Americans, have been protesting to call for a ceasefire in Gaza. Millions more Americans support a ceasefire, including the majority of Democrats, according to mainstream surveys.” But there was little reaction to Pelosi’s McCarthyite smear in the major corporate media. The New York Times published a single brief news article, while the Washington Post and Wall Street Journal did not comment. Only CNN, the network where Pelosi had appeared, reported any negative reaction to her remarks, while the other broadcast and cable networks said nothing.
Democrats Are Demented Genocidal War Sluts - by Caitlin Johnstone -President Biden is reportedly preparing to begin a new weeks-long bombing campaign in the middle east in retaliation for a drone attack which killed three US troops this past weekend. These strikes are expected to include Iranian targets, tempting the nightmare scenario of a full-blown war with Iran, despite the public acknowledgement that there’s no evidence Iran was behind the drone strike.Antiwar’s Dave DeCamp explains:“US officials told NBC News that the US is planning to launch a weeks-long bombing campaign in the Middle East in retaliation for the drone attack in northeast Jordan that killed three American soldiers.“The officials said that the targets are expected to include Iranian targets outside of Iran, and the campaign will involve strikes and cyber operations. Other reports have said the US is considering targeting Iranians in Iraq and Syria or the Iranian navy.“While the potential targets are not inside Iran, direct attacks on the Iranian military could provoke a full-blown war between the US and Iran. The US is considering taking this course of action even though the Pentagon admitted it has no evidence Iran was directly involved in the drone attack in Jordan.”Iran threatened to “decisively respond” to any US attack, either upon the Islamic Republic itself or upon the nation’s “interests and nationals under any pretexts.”So this looks to be yet another dramatic escalation in the middle east by the warmongering policies of the sitting US president, who has also been waging a new bombing campaign in Yemen and backing a genocide in Gaza ofunbelievable savagery where starving Palestinians are now eating grass and drinking polluted water in a desperate attempt to survive. According to a memo obtained by The Intercept, US troops have been put on standby for possible involvement in Israel’s assault on Gaza as well.Longtime Democratic Party leader Nancy Pelosi has been behaving even more freakishly. The former House Speaker said this past Sunday that people advocating a ceasefire in Gaza are promoting “Mr. Putin’s message,” claiming on no basis whatsoever that some pro-Palestine demonstrations are backed by Russia and should be investigated by the FBI. In a video posted the very next day by antiwar activist group Code Pink, Pelosi is seen admonishing protesters against Biden’s Gaza genocide to “Go back to China where your headquarters is.” Pelosi’s demented accusation is presumably a reference to a New York Times smear piece which used sleazy insinuations to falsely imply a connection between Code Pink and the Chinese government without ever actually showing one to exist, and not even that smear piece ever claimed that Code Pink had a headquarters in China. The “progressive” wing of the Democratic Party isn’t much better, with political pop stars like Bernie Sanders flailing all over the place to avoid advocating a ceasefire and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez saying she fully supports Biden despite his actions in Gaza and adamantly refusing to say if the president is backing a genocide.
US Rep. Mast, a Former IDF Soldier, Says Palestinian Babies Killed in Gaza Are Not 'Innocent Civilians' - (video) Members of the antiwar activist group Code Pink confronted Rep. Brian Mast (R-FL), a former member of the Israeli Defense Forces, about the Palestinian babies being killed by Israel in Gaza. Mast told them the babies were not innocent. Medea Benjamin, co-founder of Code Pink, asked Mast, “You haven’t seen the pictures of all the babies being killed?” Mast replied, “These are not innocent Palestinian civilians across the world.” Another activist asked about the 500,000 Palestinians who are starving in the Gaza Strip. “The half a million people starving to death are people that should go out there and put a government in place that doesn’t go out there and attack Israel on a daily basis,” Mast said. The congressman was also asked about the sheer destruction caused by the Israeli bombing campaign, which is comparable to the Allied strategic bombing campaigns of World War II. “They’ve destroyed more infrastructure in Gaza than they did in Dresden,” during World War II, one activist said. Mast replied, “And there’s more infrastructure that needs to be destroyed.” Mast previously invoked World War II to justify Israel’s slaughter in Gaza, which has killed over 27,000 Palestinians. “I would encourage the other side to not so lightly throw around the idea of innocent Palestinian civilians, as frequently said,” he said on the House floor in November. “I don’t think we would so lightly throw around the term ‘innocent Nazi civilians’ during World War II.”
US pauses funding to UN agency for Palestinians after claims staffers were involved in Hamas attack (AP) — The U.N. agency for Palestinian refugees fired a number of its staffers in Gaza suspected of taking part in the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas and other militants on southern Israel, its director said Friday, prompting the United States — the agency’s biggest donor — to temporarily halt its funding. The agency, known by its acronym UNRWA, has been the main agency providing aid for Gaza’s population amid the humanitarian disaster caused by Israel’s offensive against Hamas in Gaza triggered by the Oct. 7 attack. UNRWA officials did not comment on the impact that the U.S. halt in funding would have on its operations.UNRWA chief Philippe Lazzarini said it terminated contracts with “several” employees and ordered an investigation after Israel provided information alleging they played a role in the attack. The U.S. State Department said there were allegations against 12 employees. UNRWA has 13,000 staffers in Gaza, almost all of them Palestinians, ranging from teachers in schools that the agency runs to doctors, medical staff and aid workers. In a statement, Lazzarini called the allegations “shocking” and said any employee “involved in acts of terror will be held accountable, including through criminal prosecution.” He did not elaborate on what the staffers’ alleged role was in the attacks. In the unprecedented surprise attack, Hamas fighters broke through the security fence surrounding Gaza and stormed nearby Israeli communities, killing around 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and kidnapping some 250. Other militants joined the rampage. “UNRWA reiterates its condemnation in the strongest possible terms of the abhorrent attacks of 7 October” and calls for the immediate and unconditional release of all Israeli hostages, Lazzarini said.Since the war’s start, Israel’s assault has killed more than 26,000 Palestinians, most women and children, and wounded more than 64,400 others, Gaza’s Health Ministrysaid Friday. The ministry does not differentiate between combatants and civilians in its death toll. More than 150 UNWRA employees are among those killed — the highest toll the world body has suffered in a conflict — and a number of U.N. shelters have been hit in the bombardment. More than 1.7 million of Gaza’s 2.3 million people have been driven from their homes by the war — with hundreds of thousands of them crowded into schools and other shelters run by UNRWA.Israel’s near-complete seal on Gaza has left almost the entire population reliant on a trickle of international aid able to enter the territory each day. U.N. officials say about a quarter of the population now faces starvation.The U.S. State Department said it was “extremely troubled” by the allegations against the UNRWA staffers and has temporarily paused additional funding for the agency. The U.S. is the biggest donor to the agency, providing it with $340 million in 2022 and several hundred million in 2023.
Notes From The Edge Of The Narrative Matrix: Commemorating A Past Holocaust While Cheerleading The Current One - by Caitlin Johnstone -- The US and eight of its allies have suspended funding to UNRWA, the primary humanitarian agency in Gaza, following Israeli allegations that a dozen employees of the 30,000-staff organization were involved in the October 7 attack by Hamas. The allegations conveniently sprung up at the same time as the International Court of Justice rulings against Israel in the genocide case brought against it by South Africa, quickly supplanting the ICJ ruling in western mass media headlines. The US has continued to dismiss the South African case as unfounded. A senior Israeli official told Axios that Israeli intelligence agencies came upon the information about the UNRWA staffers largely through “interrogations of militants who were arrested during the Oct. 7 attack.” Israel has an extensive history of using torture in its interrogations, and there’s no reason to believe it hasn’t been used on captured Hamas fighters in recent months.So to recap —
- Accusations of genocide deemed credible by the International Court of Justice:Preposterous lies. Not worth opposing a single massacre over.
- Unsubstantiated claims about UNRWA staff extracted via torture: Gospel truth. Worthy of ending humanitarian support to Gazans for.
How does ANY unproven claim by the Israeli government get treated seriously by ANYONE anymore? There ought to be a limit on how many lies you can get caught circulating before the entire political/media class just starts laughing at you whenever you make any claim about anything. It’s been so surreal watching empire managers issue solemn words in honor of Holocaust Memorial Day while enthusiastically facilitating a modern-day genocide in Gaza.
Ocasio-Cortez: US Should Restore UNRWA Funding 'Immediately' -- U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Monday urged the Biden administration to restore funding for the United Nations' Palestinian refugee agency without delay and condemned the decision to suspend aid as an act of collective punishment."Cutting off support to UNRWA—the primary source of humanitarian aid to 2 million+ Gazans—is unacceptable," Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) wrote on social media. "Among an organization of 13,000 U.N. aid workers, risking the starvation of millions over grave allegations of 12 is indefensible. The U.S. should restore aid immediately."The U.S. State Department announced last week that it would temporarily pause any additional funding for the U.N. Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East as it reviews Israel'sallegations that a dozen of the agency's employees were involved in Hamas' October 7 attack on southern Israel.Several countries have followed the U.S. in suspending aid to the UNRWA, including Germany, Canada, the United Kingdom, and Japan, putting the agency's critical operations in Gaza at risk of total collapse.Observers noted that the U.S. and other Israel allies were quick to suspend aid to the UNRWA but have refused to cut off military assistance to the Israeli government despite the overwhelming evidence that it is committing war crimes in Gaza.U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres said Sunday that nine of the 12 UNRWA employees that Israel accused of taking part in the October 7 attack have been fired, one is confirmed dead, and the "identity of the two others is being clarified."Guterres pledged that "any U.N. employee involved in acts of terror will be held accountable, including through criminal prosecution"—but warned that funding cutoffs to the entire UNRWA over the alleged actions of a handful of employees could have dire consequences forstarving, desperate Gazans who depend on the agency's assistance.The UNRWA's current funding levels are only enough to sustain its Gaza operations through February, Guterres said."While I understand their concerns—I was myself horrified by these accusations—I strongly appeal to the governments that have suspended their contributions to, at least, guarantee the continuity of UNRWA's operations," the U.N. chief added. "The abhorrent alleged acts of these staff members must have consequences. But the tens of thousands of men and women who work for UNRWA, many in some of the most dangerous situations for humanitarian workers, should not be penalized. The dire needs of the desperate populations they serve must be met."
20+ NGOs Condemn 'Reckless' Decision to Cut Off UNRWA Aid -- More than 20 humanitarian aid organizations on Monday condemned the decision by the United States and a growing list of nations to suspend funding for the United Nations agency that provides vital services to Palestinians suffering through a genocidal Israeli assault on the Gaza Strip. Following Israeli claims—reportedly extracted from Palestinian prisoners in an interrogation regime rife with torture and abuse—that 12 of the more than 13,000 United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) workers in Gaza were involved in the October 7 Hamas-led attacks on southern Israel, the United States and nine other nations cut off funding to the largest humanitarian aid organization operating in the besieged coastal enclave.UNRWA has fired several employees in the wake of the Israeli allegations, while the U.N. Office of Internal Oversight Services, the world body's highest investigative authority, has launched a probe of the matter."We welcome UNRWA's swift investigation into the alleged involvement of a small number of U.N. staff members in the October 7 attacks. We are shocked by the reckless decision to cut a lifeline for an entire population by some of the very countries that had called for aid in Gaza to be stepped up and for humanitarians to be protected while doing their job," the 21 NGOs said in a statement."This decision comes as the International Court of Justice ordered immediate and effective action to ensure the provision of humanitarian assistance to civilians in Gaza," the groups continued, referring to last week's ICJ interim ruling in a South African-led case that found Israel is "plausibly" perpetrating genocide. "The countries suspending funds risk further depriving Palestinians in the region of essential food, water, medical assistance and supplies, education, and protection.""We urge donor states to reaffirm support for the vital work that UNRWA and its partners do to help Palestinians survive one of the worst humanitarian catastrophes of our times," the statement added. "Countries must reverse these funding suspensions, uphold their duties towards the Palestinian people, and scale up humanitarian assistance for civilians in dire need in Gaza and the region."According to UNRWA chief Phillipe Lazzarini, more than 2 million of Gaza's 2.3 million people depend upon UNRWA for their "sheer survival." With more than 90% of Gazans displaced by Israel's bombardment and invasion, over 1 million Palestinians are living in UNRWA-run shelters. As Gaza teeters on the brink of famine and hundreds of thousands of its residents suffer infectious diseases, the agency is providing critical food, medicine, and healthcare. It also runs hundreds of schools in the strip. All this while working under relentless Israeli bombardment that's sometimes targeted UNRWA convoys, schools, shelters, and other facilities. The agency says at least 152 of its employees have been killed by Israeli bombs and bullets since October 7. Overall, more than 26,600 Palestinians have been killed and over 65,300 others wounded during Israel's 115-day onslaught, according to Gaza officials. Most of these casualties have been women and children.
Is Biden Starving Gaza? – Code Pink - This week Chicago made history by becoming the largest city in the United States to call for a ceasefire in Gaza! While the people are rallying in support of a ceasefire and for the liberation of Palestine, what is our president doing? Biden just suspended US funding to the UN agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA) whose main focus since October 7 has been distributing food and aid to Palestinians in Gaza. Two million Palestinians rely on UNRWA in some way, shape or form. The Biden administration made this crushing announcement to stop funding aid to Palestinians the same day the World Court declared it was plausible that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza. Australia, Austria, Britain, Canada, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Romania and Switzerland have also joined ranks in suspending funding for UNRWA. The US and Germany are the top two funders of UNRWA, contributing hundreds of millions to the agency. These funding cuts are deliberately timed to exacerbate the already dire humanitarian crisis in Gaza caused by Israel’s bombardment, hastening the death of potentially hundreds of thousands. Israel triggered this attack on UNRWA by alleging that a dozen UNRWA employees were involved in the October 7 attacks on Southern Israel. UNRWA, supported by UN resolution 194, recognizes Palestinians displaced to Gaza, the West Bank, Syria, Lebanon, and Jordan as refugees with a right to return to their homeland—a threat to the Zionist political movement. Israel’s repeated displacement of Palestinians since 1948 created the necessity for a UN agency solely for Palestinian refugees. Right now, nearly two million people in Gaza are displaced—400,000 are experiencing famine, and every civilian is without reliable access to clean water. The people of Gaza rely on the critical aid provided by UNRWA. It is unjustifiable for the Biden administration to make this devastating decision when over 30,000 Gazans, including 152 UNRWA employees, have already been murdered by Israel. We must demand Biden answer to the consequences of his actions. The desperate attempts by the US and Israel to destroy Gaza is proof that our action is threatening their goals. We must keep applying pressure every day! Check out our page with quick actions you can take for Palestine daily, and do your part to end the horrific nightmare Palestinians have been experiencing long before October 7.
White House Denies Report That It's Considering Leverage Military Aid to Israel - The White House on Sunday dismissed a report from NBC News that said the Biden administration was considering leveraging military aid to Israel to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to scale down the violence in Gaza.The report said the White House asked the Pentagon to review what weapons could be used as leverage and that no decisions have been made. But in response to the report, the White House said the policy of unconditional support for the mass killing of Palestinians in Gaza hasn’t changed. “Israel has a right and obligation to defend themselves against the threat of Hamas, while abiding by international humanitarian law and protecting civilian lives, and we remain committed to support Israel in its fight against Hamas. We have done so since October 7, and will continue to. There has not been a change in our policy,” an unnamed National Security Council spokesperson said.US and Israeli officials recently met in Washington to advance several major arms deals that will arm Israel with more F-35 and F-15 fighter jets and Apache helicopters. Israel will procure 25 F-35s under an agreement that will be paid for by $3 billion in US military aid.Where the funding for the F-15s and Apaches will come from is unclear, but the US is trying to give an additional $14 billion in military aid to Israel on top of the $3.8 billion the country receives each year.
US Troops Put on Standby for Potential US Ground Involvement in Gaza - US Air Force personnel in Iraq received a memo in January ordering them to be on standby to support potential US ground involvement in Gaza, The Intercept reported on Tuesday. The memo contained orders for the airmen to be placed “on standby to forward deploy to support troops in the case of on ground US involvement in the Israel Hamas war.” A separate personnel document also obtained byThe Intercept showed the order was meant for personnel deployed to Iraq last year. The document does not suggest US ground operations in Gaza are definitely going to happen, but it does demonstrate the lengths the US might be willing to go to support the Israeli slaughter of Palestinians. Israel has been receiving support from US special operations soldiers on intelligence matters, but there’s no indication US troops have been on the ground in Gaza. The revelation of the memo comes as the situation in the Middle East continues to escalate. President Biden could potentially target the Iranian military in the wake of a drone attack in Jordan that killed three US troops even though the Pentagon admitted it has no evidence Tehran was directly involved.
US to Deploy Nukes in the UK for the First Time in 15 Years - The US will deploy nuclear weapons to the UK for the first time in 15 years in a move Russia will view as a provocation, The Telegraph reported, citing Pentagon documents.Pentagon procurement contracts show that the US is planning to station B61-12 nuclear warheads at RAF Lakenheath, a base in Suffolk, England. The US pulled its nuclear weapons out of the UK in 2008, and its decision to redeploy them demonstrates the low state of US-Russia relations.According to The Telegraph, Russia said a US deployment of nukes to the UK would be an “escalation” that would require “compensating counter-measures.”The US already has nukes stationed in Germany, Belgium, Italy, Turkey, and the Netherlands as part of NATO’s nuclear sharing program. Last year, Russia announced it was deploying nuclear weapons to Belarus amid tensions over the proxy war in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin pointed to NATO’s nuclear sharing program to justify his decision.The B61 is the US’s primary nuclear gravity bomb, and the B61-12 is its newest iteration. It’s considered a tactical nuclear weapon, which have a lower yield than strategic warheads. But the B61-12 has a maximum yield of 50 kilotons, more than three times as powerful as the bomb the US dropped on Hiroshima, Japan.The UK has a nuclear arsenal of its own and announced in 2021 that it was expanding, raising questions about Britain’s commitment to the Non-Proliferation Treaty. The UK said it was raising the ceiling of its nuclear warhead stockpile from 180 to 240 and that it would no longer publish information about the number of warheads it maintains in an operational status.
Five Things Liberals Say To Avoid Taking A Real Position On Gaza - Here are five noises western liberals often make to avoid having to take a real position on Gaza:
- 1. “It’s heartbreaking!” - Liberals love talking about how “sad” and “heartbreaking” what’s happening in Gaza is like it’s some kind of natural disaster, some tragically tragic tragedy that their government has been passively witnessing instead of actively facilitating. It lets them express their progressive humanitarian feelings without actually taking a meaningful political position against what’s being done in their name with their tax dollars and with their tacit consent. In reality the genocide in Gaza is not sad or heartbreaking or tragic; those are words you use for diseases and accidents. When someone is murdered with malicious intent, we don’t heave a heavy sigh and shed a tear and move on — we prosecute their murderer. It isn’t raining bombs in Gaza because that’s just the unfortunate weather there today, those bombs are being dropped by Israel with genocidal intent with the full backing of the United States and its allies. This is a crime which requires outrage and punishment, not empty crocodile tears.
- 2. “It’s complicated!” - No it isn’t. An apartheid regime has been oppressing and abusing an ethnic group which doesn’t receive the same rights and treatment as others, and now they’re dropping bombs on a population trapped in a giant concentration camp. If it was Jewish people enclosed in Gaza while any other ethnicity rained military explosives on them for four months, no liberal in the world would have trouble recognizing what they’re seeing and calling it what it is.
- 3. “BUT TRUMP!” -- Push a Biden supporter hard enough on what their president is doing in Gaza and eventually they’ll start babbling about how bad Donald Trump is. As though Trump being bad somehow negates the depravity of backing an active genocide. Or as though backing an active genocide is an excusable offense if it means a little more student debt forgiveness or something. Democrats have no way to reconcile Gaza with what they believe about themselves and what values they supposedly hold, so when confronted with the horrifying reality of what their president is doing in the middle east they’re left with no option but to plunge their heads into the sand and scream “TRUMP!!!” as loud as they can. Nothing has exposed the true nature of the Democratic Party like a Democrat president running for re-election during a US-backed genocide.
- 4. “I really hope there can be peace there someday!” - Like “It’s tragic!”, this one replaces a meaningful political position with empty emotional fluff to create the false impression that the liberal has said something relevant which aligns with their stated values and ideology. By saying you want peace but refusing to say how you want the peace to come about, the “peace” you purport to support could mean anything. If Israel bombs Gaza into rubble and drives survivors into refugee camps in the Sinai desert, they could call that “peace” because there won’t be a war anymore. If Israel murders everyone in Gaza, they can call that “peace” because the bombs are no longer falling. Even going back to the status quo of October 6 wouldn’t be “peace”, it would just be returning to the abusive conditions which gave rise to October 7.
- 5. “I support a two-state solution!” The “two-state solution” is functionally just a psychological box that liberals mentally tick off so they can pretend they have a real position on Israel-Palestine. Israeli leaders publicly spit onthe notion of a Palestinian state with its own military and national sovereignty, and there is no political wherewithal to make such a thing happen. It’s nothing more than a conceptual construct which lets liberals feel nice about their personal politics without actually taking a stand against the western-backed tyrannical power structure that is the state of Israel. In reality there cannot be peace until Israel ceases to be an abusive apartheid ethnostate, until it and its allies pay massive reparations to the Palestinians, and until all the wrongs of the past are made right. This is entirely possible, but it would be a massive, massive effort toward a goal that would make the current status quo of Israel-Palestine completely unrecognizable from what it currently is. Merely flicking an intellectual thumbs-up to empty notions about a “two-state solution” is just more liberal psychological compartmentalization.
Other popular noises liberals make to avoid taking a real position on Gaza include “Something something antisemitism!” and “It’s just Netanyahu and a few far-right jerks making things bad!” The specific words don’t matter much, because liberals will make whatever noises they need to make to avoid the crushing weight of cognitive dissonance and resist the increasingly loud demands from reality that they dramatically restructure their worldview.
US pauses decisions on LNG export terminals - The Biden administration will “temporary pause” pending decisions for liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals. “My administration is announcing today a temporary pause on pending decisions of liquefied natural gas exports – with the exception of unanticipated and immediate national security emergencies,” the White House said in a statement. The US will pause pending decisions on exports of LNG to non-FTA countries until the Department of Energy can update the underlying analyses for authorizations. “During this period, we will take a hard look at the impacts of LNG exports on energy costs, America’s energy security, and our environment. This pause on new LNG approvals sees the climate crisis for what it is: the existential threat of our time,” the statement said. This move, which comes as President Joe Biden enters an election year, has been reported in several media reports this week and it could potentially delay final investment decisions on several projects. The projects include Venture Global’s CP2 LNG terminal, which is awaiting the final approval from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and also the non-FTA export authorization from the Department of Energy. Responding to media reports earlier this week, a spokeswoman for Venture Global said that “such an action would shock the global energy market, having the impact of an economic sanction, and send a devastating signal to our allies that they can no longer rely on the United States.” “The true irony is this policy would hurt the climate and lead to increased emissions as it would force the world to pivot to coal,” she said. Texas-based Energy Transfer is also planning to take a final decision this year to build its Lake Charles LNG export facility in Louisiana, depending on the export approval by the DOE. Moreover, Commonwealth LNG also aims to take FID this year on its 9.3 mtpa LNG facility under development in Cameron, Louisiana.
Biden’s Natural Gas Export Freeze Draws Fire From Moderate Democrats - -- President Joe Biden’s move to pause liquefied natural gas export approvals won praise from progressives and climate activists - but some moderate Democrats from gas producing states are saying not so fast. A group of 10 Democratic House lawmakers from states including Texas, Alaska and California sent a letter to Biden asking him to “refocus” his policies on LNG exports. “The United States must continue to lead the way in ensuring the security of our own energy supplies and those of our allies,” the lawmakers, led by Texas Representative Marc Veasey, wrote in the letter made public Friday. “Every molecule of US LNG exported helps limit the growth of global emissions and provides energy security around the world.” Senate Democrats from the battle-ground state of Pennsylvania, the second-largest natural gas producing state in the US, were more pointed in their criticism. “While the immediate impacts on Pennsylvania remain to be seen, we have concerns about the long-term impacts that this pause will have on the thousands of jobs in Pennsylvania’s natural gas industry,” Senators Bob Casey and John Fetterman said in a joint statement Thursday. “If this decision puts Pennsylvania energy jobs at risk, we will push the Biden administration to reverse this decision.” The Biden administration announced it was pausing the approval of licenses to export LNG while it scrutinized the affect of the shipments on climate change and other factors amid a campaign by environmentalists and others who have come to view the projects as a symbol of the president’s green credentials. Opponents of the massive export terminals, which include environmentalist Bill McKibben, who successfully led a push to block the Keystone XL pipeline a decade ago, argue the infrastructure will lock in the use of fossil fuels for decades to come. “We don’t have time to keep pretending that natural gas is a climate solution,” Representative Jared Huffman, a California Democrat, said during a Capitol Hill press conference where frontline environmental leaders declared victory in securing the pause. “We don’t have time to keep pretending that LNG is clean energy.” But critics of the moratorium, which threatens to disrupt billions of dollars in LNG export projects from companies such as Commonwealth LNG and Energy Transfer LP, have dismissed it as a political ploy to help Biden get the votes of young progressive voters angered by the president’s decision to approve the Willow drilling project in Alaska as well as his support for Israel. It also puts lawmakers from natural gas producing states in a politically tough position. Senator John Hickenlooper, a Colorado Democrat who once drank fracking fluid to vouch for the safety of the drilling technique, said he needed more information before deciding if he supported a move being pushed by Republicans to strip the Energy Department’s role in approving LNG export licenses entirely. “I’d like to get the facts of the issue before I start making decisions on whose authority should be expanded or limited,” Hickenlooper said in an interview. Biden’s LNG export pause will be scrutinized at a pair of House and Senate hearings next week, including one led by Senator Joe Manchin, the West Virginia Democrat who hasn’t been shy about opposing Biden administration policies that hurt his state’s abundant supply of both coal and natural gas. But Manchin, who has expressed concern about the impact of exporting LNG on domestic prices in the past, issued a statement following the White House’s LNG moratorium announcement that stopped short of saying he opposed the move. “I have always said that our first concern must be protecting American consumers and growing American businesses, and we need a safety valve in place to ensure Americans aren’t unnecessarily stuck paying a premium for the abundant resources we’re blessed to have,” Manchin said. “But as the superpower of the world, we also have a responsibility to our allies and trading partners who, in our absence, may have no other choice but to turn to countries that don’t share our values.”
Biden’s 'Pause' on LNG Exports Is Impulsive and Destructive | Cato at Liberty Blog - On January 26, the Biden administration announced it would pause new approvals of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. The official news followed several leaked stories—including one prominent article by The New York Times—that triggered criticism from LNG supporters and praise from climate activists.The announcement appears to be a concession to the “keep it in the ground” movement and the 65 federal lawmakers who asked for the policy change in November 2023. However, some pragmatic progressives see the pause as misguided: “The urgency of the energy transition cannot excuse counterproductive purity tests,” wrote Elan Sykes and Neel Brown of the Progressive Policy Institute.From the libertarian perspective, the pause is unwise energy policy, an encroachment on free trade, and a continuation of the Biden administration’s use of uncertainty as a political weapon against energy suppliers. Let’s dig in. LNG is the liquefied version of natural gas (mostly methane, CH4). Shippers cool the gas to approximately negative 260 degrees Fahrenheit to make it a liquid that is portable via tanker ships. International trade in LNG has spiked in part because of the abundant natural gas resources in the United States, which were enabled by technological improvements in unconventional production from shale formations.The United States did not export significant quantities of LNG until about 2015, so one might say the industry is in uncharted waters. The aggressive growth in LNG exports (particularly relative to historic levels of imports) can be seen in the graph below. (Source.)Although the large quantities of exports are new, the legal apparatus is not. Specifically, under the Natural Gas Act (NGA), the Department of Energy (DOE) must approve any import or export of natural gas. Congress passed the NGA in 1938, so the statute predates the organization of the DOE itself, which was formed by Congress in 1977 by the DOE Organization Act.Before the DOE was established the responsibilities in this section of the NGA were carried out by the Federal Power Commission (renamed in 1977 to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission or FERC). Now the two agencies each regulate different parts of the LNG industry. DOE explains their roles as follows:The NGA directs DOE to evaluate applications to export LNG to non‐FTA [Free Trade Agreement] countries. … Typically, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) has jurisdiction over the siting, construction, and operation of LNG export facilities in the US In these cases, FERC leads the environmental impact assessments of proposed projects consistent with the National Environmental Policy Act, and DOE is typically a cooperating agency as part of these reviews. Obtaining a DOE authorization to export LNG to non‐FTA countries is an important step for most projects in their path toward financing and construction.The Biden administration said the DOE will now scrutinize applications to export LNG through the lens of climate change and other factors in determining whether additional US LNG exports are in the public interest. The White House stated:The current economic and environmental analyses DOE uses to underpin its LNG export authorizations are roughly five years old and no longer adequately account for considerations like potential energy cost increases for American consumers and manufacturers beyond current authorizations or the latest assessment of the impact of greenhouse gas emissions. Today, we have an evolving understanding of the market need for LNG, the long‐term supply of LNG, and the perilous impacts of methane on our planet.The DOE has never denied an LNG export application, so this is a big shift in public policy.
Washington Post Editorial | Biden’s natural gas curbs aren’t good for the climate or the world - -- Currently accounting for 22 percent of global primary energy consumption, natural gas will remain crucial to the world’s energy mix through 2050, even as alternative energy use grows, according to the latest International Energy Agency projections. Though it’s a fossil fuel and, as such, a source of carbon dioxide emissions, gas still provides baseload grid power needed to complement renewable electricity, and it’s generally cleaner than coal. Unfortunately for the world, Russia produces much of this vital resource, as Europe discovered to its dismay when President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine — with an army that had been funded by earnings from Russian gas exports. Fortunately for the world, the United States has emerged as the top exporter of the supercooled form known as liquefied natural gas, or LNG. In fact, after the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Biden administration launched a largely successful effort to help allies substitute American LNG, delivered via ships, for pipelined Russian gas. “The United States now plays a critical balancing role in the global LNG market, adding supply and flexibility that has boosted global energy security,” in the words of a recent Center for Strategic and International Studies report.On Friday, however, that same Biden administration ordered a de facto halt to the approval of new facilities for exporting the resource to countries with which the United States does not have free-trade agreements — a category that includes all of Europe. It’s an election-year sop to climate activists that will do much more to unsettle vital U.S. alliances than to save the planet. At issue were federal permits for LNG projects planned on the Gulf of Mexico coast. One of these, known as Calcasieu Pass 2, or CP2, has already secured financing, and the company that owns the Louisiana facility had signed a 20-year contract to supply Germany. But under the new Biden administration policy, approvals could be delayed through the November election, while regulators apply heightened scrutiny to the impacts on carbon emissions and domestic energy costs.To be sure, the eight LNG export projects currently in operation will remain unaffected, as will 10 projects already approved and under construction. In the short run, there will be little disruption to Europe’s economy or, for that matter, to what is generally a well-supplied market around the world. The problem is what might happen beyond that in, say, the next quarter-century. “If additional U.S. LNG export capacities don’t materialize, it would risk increasing and prolonging the global supply imbalance,” warned Eurogas, the trade association for Europe’s natural gas industry. “This would inevitably prolong the period of price volatility in Europe and could lead to price increases with the consequent implications that would have for economic turmoil and social impact.”The main short-run damage the administration’s obviously political decision does is to the United States’ reputation for rational, fact-based policymaking, and for wise consideration of climate control in the context of geopolitics. You cannot change demand for energy by destroying supply: If the United States did indeed curtail LNG exports, it would just drive customers into the arms of competitors such as Australia, Qatar, Algeria and, yes, Russia. Quite possibly, some potential customers would choose to meet their needs with coal instead.
Moderates adopt Freedom Caucus tactics in show of shaky House GOP majority --Hard-line tactics and overt rebellions in the House GOP are no longer limited to the conservative wing of the party. A group of moderate New York Republicans took a page out of the House Freedom Caucus playbook this week, threatening to tank a procedural vote and hold up floor action to protest one of their top priorities — an increase in the State and Local Tax Deduction (SALT) — being left out of a bipartisan tax bill that leadership moved to pass Wednesday with the help of Democrats. The development showcased how House GOP leaders are engulfed in a multifront battle as they scramble to keep a governing majority with its razor-thin edge over Democrats. And it shows that the repeated rebellions in the 118th Congress may have not only led up to the ouster of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) but permanently altered House procedure and laid the groundwork for more dysfunction and confrontation in the lower chamber. “I don’t blame them,” Rep. Max Miller (R-Ohio), who has called for internal consequences for members who forced a Speaker battle, said of the New Yorkers’ move. “Do I think it’s reckless? Yeah, I do. But I mean, people, when they act out, get what they want around here, and we’ve disincentivized hard work and working together as a team.” The tax legislation spurred a tactical exchange between lawmakers who are often on opposite ends of intraparty battles and the ideological spectrum. Rep. Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.) said there was an “odd coalition that’s formed between Freedom Caucus members and the SALT Caucus members.” LaLota told reporters that the New Yorkers got counsel from Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), a highly visible member of the House Freedom Caucus who is a stickler for process issues, as they mounted their procedural move. Moderates and conservatives were both opposed to the tax deal, though over different issues. The legislation at the center of it all, the Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act, is the result of a deal struck between House Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) and Senate Finance Committee Chair Ron Wyden (D-Ore.). It pairs an expansion of the child tax credit with business deductions for research development costs, interest payments and capital investments, among other provisions. The bill advanced out of the House Ways and Means Committee earlier this month in a resounding 40-3 vote, with all Republicans voting in favor. But moderates were disappointed that it did not include an increase in the $10,000 SALT deduction cap. Some conservatives, meanwhile, lamented that the child tax credit provision expanded the “welfare state” and that families with undocumented migrants would remain able to claim the tax credit. The bill maintains the standard set in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act passed under former President Trump, which requires children to have Social Security numbers for the parents to claim the benefit. In previous years, the bill’s broad bipartisan support would mean that it would enjoy a relatively undramatic path to House passage, even with Republican opposition. But in this turbulent Congress, confrontational conservatives have repeatedly upended regular procedural votes on the rules for various bills — a vote dictating the terms of debate for legislation and which amendments can be considered on the House floor. Normally, members of the majority party vote in favor of the rule and the minority party votes against the rule, even though they might vote differently on passage of the underlying legislation, making it a test of party strength. Until 2023, a rule vote had not failed on the floor since 2002.
Tlaib Is a 'No' on Tax Breaks for Rich to Get 'Crumbs' for the Poorest -U.S. Rep. Rashida Tlaib is calling on her fellow Democrats to "stay at the table and demand a better deal for our children" instead of supporting the Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act, a bill that pairs a partial expansion of the child tax credit with major tax breaks for corporations and the wealthy, which was expected to reach the House floor for a vote Wednesday evening.Tlaib (D-Mich.) echoed the concerns of Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.), a longtime champion of an expanded child tax credit (CTC), saying Democrats and Republicans have negotiated a bill that "gives billions of dollars in tax breaks to the rich, while leaving behind millions of children living in poverty."A number of progressive groups have joined Republicans in calling for the passage of the bill (H.R. 7024), which was negotiated by Rep. Jason Smith (R-Mo.) and Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), but Tlaib and DeLauro have each analyzed the legislation and found that while it offers an average of $57,530 in tax breaks for the richest 0.1% of Americans, the poorest 20% of households would receive just $60 in tax credits."Our families deserve so much better than a bill that trades massive tax breaks for the richest Americans for crumbs for a fraction of the poorest children in our country. In the first year, the richest 120,000 households would get a larger share of the tax benefits than the bottom 88 million families," said Tlaib.Like DeLauro, Tlaib said Democrats should not accept the CTC provisions in H.R. 7024 after seeing the transformative difference the American Rescue Plan (ARP) made in U.S. poverty rates in 2021.Childhood poverty was slashed by 30% by the enhanced CTC included in the ARP, reaching 61 million children and allowing their parents and guardians to pay for groceries, childcare, and other essentials."This deal falls short, and will only reach a fraction of the most vulnerable," said Tlaib.With Republicans insisting on minimum income and work requirements for the CTC, the provision in H.R. 7024 leaves out the poorest families while ensuring households that earn up to $400,000 per year get a $2,000 credit.Meanwhile, said Tlaib, "corporations who are already dodging paying their fair share of taxes" will benefit from "another handout" if the legislation is passed.
House passes $78 billion tax bill in bipartisan vote - The House passed a $78 billion tax bill on Wednesday that boosts the child tax credit and reinstates business deductions that were rescinded during the Trump administration, sending the bipartisan, bicameral legislation to the Senate for consideration. The chamber cleared the measure, dubbed the Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act, in an overwhelmingly bipartisan 357-70 vote. Passage of the legislation — which was crafted by House Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) and Senate Finance Committee Chair Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) — marks a rare show of bipartisanship in this Congress, which has been defined by bitter partisan clashes and labeled as highly unproductive.“The numbers speak for itself, it shows that when you’re trying to deliver for the American people, people will join together and that’s what we saw today,” Smith told reporters after the vote, walking into an office with cheering staffers. It is also one of the few instances this session when a nonessential bill — legislation that is not required to keep the government running — has a chance of being enacted. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) on Wednesday said he is supportive of the tax bill and is working with Wyden “to figure out the best way forward.”But approval was not unanimous: Conservative Republicans, progressive Democrats and some moderate New York Republicans expressed opposition to the bill, racking up some “no” votes. The resistance from the Empire State lawmakers — furious that the legislation did not include an increase in the state and local tax (SALT) deduction — sparked a near-revolt on the House floor Tuesday, a sign of the anger among the group. Hard-line GOP lawmakers, for starters, took aim at the expanded child tax credit, arguing that the provision would grow the “welfare state.” They also claimed that the legislation would allow families with immigrants in the country illegally to continue receiving the benefits — even though the provision is in line with the 2017 tax bill enacted during the Trump administration that requires children to have Social Security numbers in order for their parents to receive the benefits.“Unfortunately, as happens in this town, this legislation comes with provisions that, frankly, the people I represent are tired of,” Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), a member of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, said on the House floor Wednesday. “And it’s provisions that would continue to expand the welfare state, as ‘The Wall Street Journal’ editorialized about, by expanding the child tax credit in ways that will continue to fund people directly through refundable credits which we find to be problematic, and we think undermines the kind of economic activity and incentive to work and incentive to, you know, produce value that we think is critically important for economic growth,” he added.They were also frustrated that GOP leadership brought the bill to the floor under suspension of the rules, a fast-track process that requires two-thirds support for passage but also avoids having to first pass a rule, which Republican opponents of the bill may have tanked.Progressive Democrats, meanwhile, argued that the legislation favored corporations over those eligible for a child tax credit. Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.), the ranking member of the House Appropriations Committee, bemoaned the “inequity” between the corporate benefits and those delivered to families under the child tax credit. Corporations, she said, will get the benefits “immediately,” while “we have to phase in on the child tax credit.”
The new expansion of the child tax credit won’t disincentivize work - The child tax credit deal reached by Rep. Jason Smith (R-Mo.) and Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), the chairmen of Congress’s two tax-writing committees, would provide relief to low-income families. Some conservative organizations in Washington have expressed concern that such a significant societal change for children and families comes with a price — a disincentive for parents to work. But if anything, the tax package is designed to ensure a proper and continued connection between the child tax credit and employment.The Smith-Wyden package incorporates two recent proposals from the Tax Policy Center (see Options 2 and 3) that would reduce poverty among families with children while preserving strong work incentives.First, it eliminates the separate cap that prevents low-income families from claiming the full $2,000 per-child credit if they lack sufficient income-tax liability. (That limit was $1,700 per child in 2023.) In theory, repealing the separate cap could even increase work incentives by allowing affected families to continue receiving additional credit as their earnings rise, while also giving those families greater resources.Second, the package phases in the credit at a faster rate for families with more than one child. This expansion would be a sensible reform with a significant impact for larger families. It would work by changing the limit of 15 percent of earnings to 15 percent of earnings per child. Thus, it would preserve the credit’s phase-in rate at 15 percent for families with one child but boost the phase-in rate to 30 percent for families with two children, and so on.Larger families require greater resources to escape poverty, so differentiating the earnings requirements based on family size targets benefits efficiently. In addition, receiving an extra 30 or 45 cents per dollar earned is a stronger work incentive than receiving only 15 cents, making this provision pro-work as well. And this sort of variation has precedent; the Earned Income Tax Credit phase-in rate increases with the number of children. Even with the inclusion of the “look-back” provision, the proposed reform still incentivizes employment. This provision allows families to use their prior-year income to determine credit eligibility if that amount provides a better result than current-year income. As Kyle Pomerleau of the American Enterprise Institute explains, concerns that the look-back provision will discourage work are unwarranted. To take advantage of this, a person would have to work one year on, one year off. This means parents who want to game the provision would have to decide to quit their jobs in, say, January 2024, in anticipation of a credit they would receive when they file their taxes 15 months later (and which they would still receive if they continued working). Ryan Ellis of the Center for a Free Economy notes that for low-income families living paycheck to paycheck, leaving the workforce for a year and then returning the following year because they will receive a couple thousand dollars more than a year later doesn’t make any sense.According to a recent report by the Bipartisan Policy Center, the legislation’s child tax credit improvements — refundability of the full amount, increasing the earnings phase-in for larger families, the one-year look-back and indexing the credit to inflation — should not have significant impacts on work, employment or inflation.Even worthy policy improvements have a cost, however, and I agree with the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget that if it’s important enough to enact into law, it’s important enough to fund without increasing the deficit. As my colleague Andrew Moylan has explained, the pandemic-era Employee Retention Credit has ballooned in cost since its inception and has seen hundreds of thousands of fraudulent claims by unscrupulous promoters. At present, businesses have until April 2025 to make claims, despite the pandemic being long over — and despite a rising number of these claims being fraudulent.
McConnell bedeviled as Trump, GOP move goalposts on border - Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) has made supporting the war in Ukraine a signature policy priority, but his efforts have been complicated by fellow Republicans, including former President Trump, who are moving the goalposts on the issue. McConnell appeared to be on solid footing when he told President Biden and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in phone calls before Thanksgiving that Biden’s funding request for Ukraine would not pass the Senate “without a credible border solution.” “I did make it clear to both of them that we have to have a credible solution to the wide-open border in order to get a bill … across the Senate floor,” he said at the time. “I hope they understood the message.” But at a special meeting of the Republican conference Wednesday afternoon, McConnell acknowledged, according to a GOP senator in the room, that “the political situation has drifted.” A big reason is Trump, who in the interim has won the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary, tightening his grip on the GOP. Republican senators say Trump is now telling GOP lawmakers he wants to deny President Biden a victory and run on the issue — a motivation that Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) on Thursday blasted as “appalling.” Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said Republicans would make a serious mistake by walking away from the border deal in the belief that it will somehow help Trump beat Biden in the November election. “If we fail to get this passed, I’m going to file exactly the same bill if Trump wins and we have a majority of the Senate. I’ll guarantee you that everybody who’s against it. It’s all about politics and not having the courage to respectfully disagree with President Trump and tell him: ‘This will help him.’ He has requested it before,” Tillis said. “I didn’t come here to have a president as a boss or a candidate as a boss. I came here to pass good, solid policy that will help a president who is serious [about] securing the border,” he said. Senate and House Republicans at one time seemed unified about attaching border security language to an emergency defense spending bill funding Ukraine, Israel and the defense of Taiwan. But that has steadily shifted. GOP senators who support the bill say the biggest obstacle to passing any border security legislation is Trump, who in 2018 urged Congress to act on border legislation. Trump said in November 2018 the “only long-term solution to the crisis and the only way to ensure the endurance of our nation as a sovereign country is for Congress to overcome open borders obstruction.” Trump complained at the time that caravans of illegal migrants were drawn to the country by “Democrat-backed laws” and “left-wing judicial rulings” that tied his hands as president. “It’s a disgrace we have to put up with it,” he said. Five years later, Trump is arguing against action by Congress, saying the emerging bill is insufficient and calling on Republicans to reject it, without seeing all of its details. “I do not think we should do a Border Deal, at all, unless we get EVERYTHING needed to shut down the INVASION of Millions & Millions of people,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. Some Republican senators think some of their conservative colleagues have also shifted on the need to have a border bill, to align themselves with Trump and take shots at their leadership. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) told Fox News’s Jacqui Heinrich this week: “We don’t need a border bill.” But in 2019, when Trump was president, he argued Congress needed to act to help him secure the border. “There is a crisis at our border,” he tweeted in June of that year. “We cannot remain [idle as] the [Customs and Border Patrol] works tirelessly to protect our border. Congress needs to do its job & provide CBP the support they need.” McConnell has argued the emerging border deal is the only opportunity in the foreseeable future to get any Democratic votes to reform the nation’s asylum laws and give the president more authority to detain and deport migrants, arguing such proposals wouldn’t get any Democratic support under a Republican president. Trump, when he was president, even acknowledged he couldn’t get any bipartisan support in Congress for border security reform. “It’s open border obstruction. No votes. You can come up with the greatest border plan, the greatest immigration plan. You won’t get one vote from a Democrat,” Trump said five years ago. The emergency defense supplemental bill would include more than $14 billion to secure the border in addition to reforming asylum policy and giving the president enhanced authority to detain and deport migrants. Senate Republicans who support a package funding Ukraine and reforming the nation’s asylum laws feel let down by Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), who has consulted with Trump frequently on the border crisis, and warned colleagues in a letter Friday that the Senate bill — unless dramatically changed — wouldn’t even get a vote in the House. “If rumors about the contents of the draft proposal are true, it would have been dead on arrival in the House anyway,” Johnson said in the letter. GOP senators see that as a departure from what he told GOP colleagues in early December that making changes to U.S. border policy would be their “hill to die on” in negotiations over funding for Ukraine and Israel. Johnson also told President Biden and other congressional leaders at a White House meeting on Jan. 17 that “we must have change at the border, substantive policy change.” The House passed H.R. 2, the Secure the Border Act, in May, which would have required Customs and Border Patrol to maintain their staffing at 22,000 agents, required the Biden administration to restart construction of the southern border wall, and end the policy of paroling migrants into the country, which critics call “catch and release.” Johnson told Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) in a phone call on Nov. 30 that he could only pass Ukraine funding if border security language was attached to it. The Speaker insisted on the call that the House-passed bill, H.R. 2, be part of the package, but Schumer informed him at that time the House bill was a “non-starter” and would have to be modified.
Biden said he'd shut the U.S.-Mexico border. What does that mean? (AP) — President Joe Biden has made some strong claims over the past few days about shutting down the U.S.-Mexico border as he tries to salvage aborder deal in Congress that would also unlock money for Ukraine.The deal had been in the works for months and seemed to be nearing completion in the Senate before it began to fall apart, largely because Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump doesn’t want it to happen.“A bipartisan bill would be good for America and help fix our broken immigration system and allow speedy access for those who deserve to be here, and Congress needs to get it done,” Biden said over the weekend. “It’ll also give me as president, the emergency authority to shut down the border until it could get back under control. If that bill were the law today, I’d shut down the border right now and fix it quickly.”A look at what Biden meant, and the political and policy considerations at play:Biden wants continued funding for Ukraine in the face of Russia’s invasion. Senate Republicans had initially said they would not consider more money for Kyiv unless it was combined with a deal to manage the border.As the talks have progressed, Biden has come to embrace efforts to reach a bipartisan border security deal after years of gridlock on overhauling the immigration system. But his statement that he would shut down the border “right now” if Congress passed the proposed deal is more about politics than policy.He is seeking to disarm criticism of his handling of migration at the border as immigration becomes an increasing matter of concern to Americans in the leadup to the presidential election. Would the border really shut down under the deal? No. Trade would continue, people who are citizens and legal residents could continue to go back and forth.Biden is referencing an expulsion authority being negotiated by the lawmakers that would automatically kick in on days when illegal crossings reached more than 5,000 over a five-day average across the Southern border, which is currently seeing as manyas 10,000 crossings per day. The authority shuts down asylum screenings for those who cross illegally. Migrants could still apply at ports of entry until crossings dipped below 3,750 per day. But these are estimates, the final tally hasn’t been ironed out.There’s also an effort to change how asylum cases are processed. Right now, it takes several years for a case to be resolved and in the meantime, many migrants are released into the country to wait. Republicans see that as one reason that additional migrants are motivated to come to the U.S.The goal would be to shrink the resolution time to six months. It would also raise the standards for which migrants can apply for asylum in the first place. The standard right now is broad by design so that potential asylum seekers aren’t left out, but critics argue the system is being abused.Trump vowed to “shut down” the U.S-Mexico border entirely — including to trade and traffic — in an effort to force Mexico to do more to stem the flow of migrants. He didn’t follow through, though. But the talk was heavily criticized by Democrats who said it was draconian and xenophobic. The closest Trump came was during the pandemic, when he used emergency authorities to severely limit asylum. But trade and traffic still continued.The recent echoes of the former president by Biden, who had long argued that Trump’s border policies were inhumane, reflect the growing public concern about illegal migration. But Biden’s stance threatens to alienate progressives who already believe he has shifted too far right on border policies.House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Trump ally and critic of the proposed deal, has argued that presidents already have enough authority to stop illegal border crossings. Biden could, in theory, strongly limit asylum claims and restrict crossings, but the effort would be almost certainly be challenged in court and would be far more likely to be blocked or curtailed dramatically without a congressional law backing the new changes.
Elon Musk Blasts Biden's Push For Border Deal: "No Laws Need To Be Passed" President Joe Biden’s call for a bipartisan Senate deal to tackle the border crisis drew criticism from Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who said the president was overlooking—or refusing to see—simple fixes that don’t require new laws to address the problem. On Friday, President Biden posted a statement on X calling for Congress to pass legislation giving him new emergency authority to shut down the border when it becomes overwhelmed.“If given that authority, I would use it the day I sign the bill into law,” the president insisted while reiterating his call for Congress to approve more money for border security.“If you’re serious about the border crisis, pass a bipartisan bill, and I will sign it,” he said. Mr. Musk, who recently argued that the Biden administration was “actively aiding illegal immigration” by suing Arizona and Texas to block state-level efforts to secure the border, posted a critical take on President Biden’s insistence on the deal. “No laws need to be passed. All that is needed is an executive order to require proof before granting an asylum hearing. That is how it used to be,” Mr. Musk said in his post. A flurry of other reactions to President Biden’s message featured some supportive messages—but also many critical takes.The latter included calls for restoring the Trump-era “Remain in Mexico” policy that required asylum-seekers to wait south of the border until their claims were processed. This policy has been credited with having a meaningful reduction of illegal crossings.The Biden administration moved to suspend “Remain in Mexico” on the president’s first day in the White House in January 2021.Meanwhile, a purported leaked draft of the deal being pushed by President Biden prompted House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) to remark it would be “dead on arrival” in the lower chamber. Former President Donald Trump recently urged Republicans to reject anything but a “perfect” deal on border security.No details are known about the contents of the deal, but it reportedly includes funding for Ukraine and Israel amid ongoing military conflicts.President Biden’s push for the deal comes as illegal border crossings in December shattered previous records.
Biden's Trojan Horse Immigration Deal Would Allow Another 1.8 Million Migrants - Mish Republican Senators are willing to sell the farm for what would be a terrible deal even if Biden elected to honor the terms..CBS reports Biden and senators on verge of striking immigration deal aimed at clamping down on illegal border crossings:
- The agreement is expected to give the executive branch a new legal authority to effectively suspend asylum in between official ports of entry when migrant crossings surpass certain thresholds.
- The power, which Mr. Biden referred to as an authority to “shut down the border” on Friday, would be mandated after average daily migrant crossings hit 5,000 over seven days, or 8,500 in a single day.
- It could also be activated on a discretionary basis after average daily crossings surpass 4,000 in a week.
- There would also be a limit on the number of days each year the president could invoke the authority.
- 1: Biden already the authority to secure the border. He has no interest in doing so or he would have already done so. The administration even ripped open holes in the razor wire fence that Texas erected. If that’s not a come on in message, what is?
- 2: Has anyone done the math on this? 5,000 a day for 365 days is 1,825,000. There’s your trojan horse right there. We already know what’s inside.
- 3: Point three is a joke. What’s with this “could” stuff as if Biden would actually do it. Besides, does anyone expect a legitimate count?
- 4. Point four is an even bigger joke. It would limit the number of days Biden could shut the border even if he wanted to.
The irony of the deal is that the flip side is over a hundred billion in additional spending on Ukraine and Israel that should not be spent at all.
Biden’s latest challenge: Democrats are lining up against the border bill - President Biden and Senate Democrats are facing an unlikely source of resistance as they race to secure a hard-fought deal linking Ukraine aid with tougher border security: their Democratic allies in the House. Until now, it appeared that the greatest threat to the emerging national security package would be House Republicans, who are vowing to quash the legislation in no uncertain terms. But if conservatives are lining up against the legislation for being too soft on would-be migrants, liberal Democrats are bashing it for being too hard on the same group. The Democratic critics — many of them representing the Congressional Hispanic Caucus (CHC), the Progressive Caucus, or both — are up in arms that they’ve been cut out of the Senate negotiations and furious that the emerging legislation appears to exclude key Democratic priorities. That list includes protections for asylum-seekers and a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants already in the country, particularly a group of young people known as Dreamers. A large and growing chorus of these Democrats are already warning that they’ll oppose the legislation if it does somehow reach the House floor, creating a potential messaging headache for Biden and other Democratic leaders who are casting advance blame on Republicans for blocking Congress’s best shot in years at a bipartisan border bill. “Everything that I’ve heard that’s in this bill is going to set immigration reform — real comprehensive immigration reform — back 10 or 15 years,” said Rep. Nanette Barragán (D-Calif.), the head of the Hispanic Caucus. “If there was something in there like pathways [to citizenship] or Dreamers, that would be a very different conversation,” she continued. “But there was no negotiation. It was really a hostage-taking, and saying, ‘OK, what more do you want?’ And it was mostly concessions on things that there’s evidence is not going to fix the problem.” The Democratic critics are quick to emphasize that no Senate deal has been finalized, and no formal legislative text has been released. But based on numerous media reports outlining some of the border changes purportedly locked into the bill, many House liberals say they’d oppose the package if those details ring true. “The things that are in the bill that were negotiated are things that are Trumpian kind of policies that have never worked to actually address the issues that we have,” said Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), head of the Congressional Progressive Caucus. “So I’m disappointed, frankly, that the president, the White House and some other Democrats are giving in to that kind of narrative, because it undermines what we really do need to do that would fix the problem.”
Greene says she ‘absolutely’ deserves credit for Mayorkas impeachment markup - Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) said she “absolutely” deserves credit for House Republicans moving forward with impeachment proceedings against Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas this week, citing the two times she moved to force votes on booting the embattled Cabinet head last year. In a phone interview with The Hill on Monday — one day before the House Homeland Security Committee is set to mark up articles of impeachment against Mayorkas — the Georgia Republican argued that her pair of procedural gambits in November were the impetus for this week’s panel vote. “Absolutely this is happening because I forced that floor vote,” Greene said. The congresswoman claimed that Rep. Mark Green (R-Tenn.), the chair of the Homeland Security Committee, has given her credit for setting the process in motion in their panel. She noted that while the Judiciary Committee typically handles impeachment proceedings, the Homeland Security Committee has jurisdiction over Mayorkas’s impeachment because the House voted to refer Greene’s articles to that panel when she moved to force votes on the matter last year. “Chairman Green and my committee have given me credit for our committee’s ability to be able to mark up articles of impeachment and make that vote tomorrow. Because Homeland Committee would never have the jurisdiction to do that. Articles of impeachment are usually marked up — I think they’re always marked up in Judiciary Committee, and historically that’s been the case,” Greene said. “But because I forced that floor vote back in November, and told them I was going to do it over and over again until this was taken seriously, we’re finally having a vote on impeachment out of Homeland tomorrow, which is where the my articles of impeachment got referred after that first vote, and they wouldn’t be there,” she continued. The victory lap from Greene comes as the Homeland Security Committee readies for Tuesday’s markup of two articles of impeachment against Mayorkas.Republicans on the panel are accusing him of “willful and systemic refusal to comply with the law,” pointing to claims that the secretary violated immigration laws through Biden administration policies, in addition to “breach of trust,” which is based on allegations that he did not carry out his responsibilities, misled Congress and obstructed its investigation.The Department of Homeland Security in a recent memo said Tuesday’s markup of the impeachment resolution “is just more of the same political games from House Homeland Security Committee” Republicans.
Johnson says Ukraine aid and border policy reform ‘likely’ to be split - House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) told the three leaders of the Baltic parliaments that President Biden’s national security supplemental that includes aid for Ukraine is “likely” to be split up over concerns about border policy reforms, according to a source familiar with the conversation. Johnson said the decision would ultimately depend on the border text that emerges from Senate negotiators, he told the senior European lawmakers, according to the source. The Hill reached out to Johnson’s office for comment. The Speaker’s remarks were first reported by Semafor. Johnson spokesperson Raj Shah told Semafor that the comments were made in a hypothetical context. The remarks come as Johnson and other Republicans have signaled that the Senate deal, which would pair Ukraine aid with changes to migration and border policy, would be “dead on arrival” in the House if the text of the bill is in line with reports about its contents. One major rumored provision in the deal that is eliciting strong GOP pushback concerns the executive branch power to halt migration if illegal crossings exceed 5,000 per day. Republicans opposed to the deal argue that the threshold should be far lower. Former President Trump has pushed for Republicans to reject any bipartisan border deal to rob President Biden of a legislative victory. Democrats have accused Republicans of tanking the deal out of a desire to help Trump in his 2024 bid against Biden, but Johnson said that notion was “absurd” earlier this week.While House Republicans are increasingly opposed to more aid for Ukraine, allies in Europe have expressed confidence that Johnson, and a majority in Congress, support continued U.S. assistance for Ukraine. Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), one of the negotiators of the border policy reform, said there’s still consensus on keeping border policy reforms as part of the larger national security supplemental, which includes aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. “We have a deal. I think the bigger problem we’re trying to solve is whether there are the votes in the Republican conference to pass this,” he said. “I think demands to have border and Ukraine together have been pretty consistent not just in the Senate but in the House as well.” Even as Congress has yet to move forward on passing new aid for Ukraine, European lawmakers have consistently expressed confidence that Democrats and Republicans will ultimately move forward on continued U.S. military and economic assistance for Kyiv. The three heads of the Baltic parliaments spoke with a group of journalists Wednesday morning and said the meeting with Johnson was positive, and that he expressed U.S. support for Ukraine. Lauri Hussar, speaker of the Parliament of Estonia, said the House Speaker expressed “his readiness” to deliver U.S. assistance to Ukraine, saying there “should be a way to find a solution to the problems” and “domestic issues” standing in the way. “He expressed his readiness to work for the solution to continue the helping of Ukraine,” Hussar said. Daiga Mieriņa, Speaker of the Parliament of Latvia, said the Baltic leaders are confident that there is a majority of support in Congress to provide aid for Ukraine. “Yesterday we had the opportunity to meet with various congressman, with committee leaders, and of course opinions are different, we heard different views, but overall we are pleased to say there’s broad support for Ukraine,” she said. “Speaker Johnson also affirmed this close partnership [with the Baltics] and that this close partnership would continue going forward.”
Senators reach a deal on border policy bill. Now it faces an uphill fight to passage (AP) — Senate negotiators on Friday reached a deal on a proposal to overhaul the asylum system at the U.S. border with Mexico, clearing the way for Democratic and Republican Senate leaders to begin the difficult task of convincing Congress to pass a national security package that will include tens of billions of dollars for Ukraine and immigration enforcement, as well as funding for Israel and other American allies. Sen. Chris Murphy, the lead Democratic negotiator, posted on social media Friday that a deal had been reached and that text of the bill would be released over the weekend. Senators are still working on finishing the rest of the package, which was initiated by a request from President Joe Biden for $110 billion for wartime aid for allies, domestic defense manufacturing, humanitarian assistance for conflicts around the world and managing the influx of migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border. Senators are preparing for a key test vote on the package next week, but it already faces a steep climb through Congress. Republicans in both chambers have balked at compromises on border security policy. Senate Republicans had initially demanded that the package include border policy changes, but Donald Trump, the GOP’s likely presidential nominee, has become a vocal opponent of the legislation. “Republicans said the border is a priority and we should craft a bipartisan bill to help control the border. We did that. We have a deal,” Murphy said on the platform X, formerly Twitter. He added: “It’s decision time.” The core group of negotiators has been laboring for months to craft a package that can win support from a bipartisan coalition of moderates in Congress. As they prepared to allow the details of the bill to be scrutinized, it remained to be seen whether they could cobble together the requisite votes from both sides of the aisle. “The criticisms are based on rumors and misconceptions,” Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, an Arizona independent who was central to crafting the bill, said on Thursday. Senate Democrats, increasingly wary of the political vulnerabilities facing Biden and their party on immigration, have become more comfortable with the contours of the package, though progressive and Hispanic members of the House are still expected to oppose the border policy changes in droves if it passes the Senate. The wartime aid for Israel could also divide Democrats. Sen. Bernie Sanders, an independent of Vermont, said Friday he would push to strip funding for offensive weaponry for Israel from the package while maintaining funds for defensive systems. On the right, many conservatives oppose both continued funding for Ukraine as well as compromises on border enforcement. House Speaker Mike Johnson has repeatedly declared he won’t compromise on hardline border enforcement measures, but he has said he will not pass final judgment until he is able to read the bill.
Cuellar: GOP lawmakers ‘irresponsible’ to reject border bill when ‘nobody has seen the text’ - Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas) said it is “irresponsible” to reject a bipartisan border bill “without even reading it” in a post on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, Saturday. “The crisis at our Southern Border should not be about party politics. The entire nation is finally feeling the burden that border communities have felt for years,” Cuellar’s post read. “It is irresponsible to reject a bipartisan border security bill without even reading it. We have a crisis at our border that demands solutions now.” “Democrats and Republicans must come together to get the job done,” Cuellar continued. Cuellar also included a clip of a recent interview he did on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” in which he questioned how someone could push back against a bipartisan border bill that they haven’t read. “Nobody has seen the text,” Cuellar said. House Republicans appear to be close to striking down a chance at border legislation, despite a history of wanting changes to border and migration policy tied with more Ukraine In a Dear Colleague letter last Friday, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said Senate legislation on border security and Ukraine aid, if the proposed terms that came out so far were accurate, would be “dead on arrival” in the House. “I wanted to provide a brief update regarding the supplemental and the border, since the Senate appears unable to reach any agreement,” he wrote. “If rumors about the contents of the draft proposal are true, it would have been dead on arrival in the House anyway.” GOP members in the House are painting upper chamber colleagues recently as sellouts who want to compromise with Democrats. “This is why we don’t listen to the Senate Republicans,” Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) said in a Fox News interview. “What they did in the Senate is once again some ham-handed deal that would help the Democrats save face, give Republican leadership an ability to say that they did something. And if it became law, the American people would quickly realize nothing changed, except that the politicians patted themselves on the back”
Lt. gov.: Texas ‘will not stop’ putting up razor wire on border after Supreme Court ruling - Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R) said Monday the state will continue to build razor wire and other fencing on the U.S.-Mexico border, despite a Supreme Court order last week allowing federal law enforcement to tear down state-erected barriers. “We are putting up wire, Martha, everywhere we can,” he told Fox News’ Martha MacCallum on Monday. “We will continue. We will not stop. If they cut it, we will replace it.” A small section of the border near Eagle Pass, Texas, is at the center of a standoff between the state and the Biden administration over border authority and security. Federal authorities claimed the Texas National Guard blocked off federal Border Patrol access to Shelby Park, which was previously used by the Border Patrol to process migrants and for its Rio Grande boat ramp.The Supreme Court ruled that the federal government can remove Texas’s barriers in the area, ensuring access of federal law enforcement to all parts of the border. Patrick threatened a “confrontation” with state authorities if the Biden administration sent Border Patrol to remove barriers.“I was down there Friday with our troops to thank them, support them, and also to stand with them in the event the Biden administration did send Border Patrol there,” he said. “Wisely, they did not. We’re thankful they did not. We don’t want a confrontation, but we want this border secure.”Gov. Greg Abbott (R-Texas) claimed last week that the state has a right to fight off an “invasion” and that state authority “supersedes” federal law. Some Democrats have called on Biden to nationalize the Texas National Guard and force them to tear down state barriers and enforce federal access to the border. GOP governors fromabout two dozen states have backed Abbott, showing support and criticizing the court’s ruling.Abbott’s statement Wednesday specifically claims the federal government has “broken the compact” with the states, justifying ignoring federal law and the Supreme Court. The so-called “compact theory” is a rejected idea of state supremacy used to justify the secession of Confederate states during the Civil War. The Supreme Court repeatedly shot down the legal theory in the early years of the U.S., when it was first proposed to nullify federal legislation during former President John Adams’s time in office.The conflict comes as congressional Republicans push Biden and Democrats further on border security demands amid negotiations on a bipartisan border bill.
25 GOP Governors 'Stand With Texas' in Defying Supreme Court at Border = Twenty-five Republican governors have lent their support to GOP Gov. Greg Abbott as he doubles down on his defiance of a U.S. Supreme Court order to allow the federal government to remove the razor wire that the state had put up along a stretch of the United States-Mexico border with Mexico at Eagle Pass. Abbott first posted on social media on Tuesday that the Texas National Guard would "continue to hold the line" at Eagle Pass. Then, in a statement released Wednesday, Abbott claimed that the Biden administration had "broken the compact" between the states and federal government by, in Abbott's view, failing to enforce immigration laws. He has won the support of at least 25 governors for declaring immigration an "invasion" and invoking "Texas' constitutional authority to defend and protect itself."In a column published in The Philadelphia Inquirer on Thursday, Will Bunch observed that some online commenters had likened the potential standoff at Eagle Pass to the one at Fort Sumter, North Carolina, that triggered the Civil War. However, he thought another historical comparison had merit."Abbott's reckless, cruelty-is-the-point policies and his defiant stand are also posing the greatest threat to federal authority since the South's 'massive resistance' in the 1950s and '60s to the Supreme Court's landmark Brown v. Board of Ed ruling that mandated school integration," Bunch wrote."If Biden is the one who backs down at Eagle Pass, then—at the risk of paraphrasing Trump—we won't have a country anymore." In his statement, Abbott referenced founding fathers James Madison and Alexander Hamilton and based his argument on the U.S. Constitution. He pointed to Article IV, Section 4, which promises federal protection against "invasion" and Article 1, Section 10, Clause 3, which acknowledges a state's "sovereign interest" in protecting its borders. He wrote:The failure of the Biden administration to fulfill the duties imposed by Article IV, § 4 has triggered Article I, § 10, Clause 3, which reserves to this state the right of self-defense. For these reasons, I have already declared an invasion under Article I, § 10, Clause 3 to invoke Texas' constitutional authority to defend and protect itself. That authority is the supreme law of the land and supersedes any federal statutes to the contrary. The Texas National Guard, the Texas Department of Public Safety, and other Texas personnel are acting on that authority, as well as state law, to secure the Texas border.After Abbott posted his statement on social media, several GOP governors reshared it with messages of support. "Virginia stands with Texas," wrote Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin on Wednesday, arguing that "t he Biden administration has turned every state into a border state."
Abbott says nationalizing Texas National Guard would be severe Biden ‘political blunder’ - Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) said it would be a severe “political blunder” if President Biden were to nationalize the Texas National Guard amid the ongoing power struggle between the state and administration over the southern border.“This is the No. 1 issue in America. Americans want a secure border. If Joe Biden federalizes our National Guard, that would be the biggest political blunder that you can make, and that’s why I think he will not do it,” Abbott told Fox News’s Sean Hannity on Monday.“That said, of course, I am prepared in the event that they do make such a blunder to make sure that Texas will be able to continue to secure our border,” he continued.Abbott previously said he would be “shocked” if Biden were to federalize the state’s National Guard but has maintained that he is prepared in the “unlikely event” that he does so.Last week, the Texas National Guard appeared to ignore a U.S. Supreme Court decision that cleared the way for Border Patrol to remove razor wire installed along the U.S.-Mexico border by the state, and continued construction along the border. Abbott has justified his decision and criticized Biden for not enforcing immigration laws.Republican governors in multiple states have backed Abbott in his standoff against the federal government. In the Monday interview, Abbott thanked his fellow GOP governors and said “half of American now is standing against the Biden administration.”The Texas governor has repeatedly said the increased roles of the Texas Department of Public Safety and the Texas National Guard at the border are part of the state’s constitutional authority to defend itself against invasion.“So, Texas has every constitutional right in this case, and I believe, when the sun sets on this, Texas will be vindicated, and the Constitution will be strengthened,” he said.
Texas’s Abbott encouraging criminal white extremists to come to border, Latino rights group says -- The country’s oldest Latino civil rights group on Monday accused Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) of inciting extremists to commit acts of violence amid escalating tensions between Texas and the federal government over border management. League of United Latin American Citizens (LULAC) National President Domingo García warned that Abbott’s rhetoric could incite violent bigots like the shooter who killed 23 people and injured 22 others in an El Paso, Texas, Walmart in 2019. “False and inciteful political rhetoric from Governor Greg Abbott is agitating people to possibly commit acts of violence and mass murder. We urge our members, especially those in Texas, to be on alert for armed out-of-state extremists with a hate agenda,” said García in a statement. The 2019 attack, a premeditated act specifically targeting Mexicans, marked a key moment for many Hispanics, who saw xenophobic rhetoric translated into violent action against their community. García’s warning comes in the wake of reports of a group called the “Take Our Border Back Convoy” organizing rallies, starting Monday in Virginia Beach, Va., and planning convoys to Texas. “We strongly condemn any violence as we call for everyone to be in honor and have clean hands. This convoy is meant to bring our country together in love, kindness and in peace. We call on everyone to respect our public police, sheriff’s, law enforcement, military or anyone in a public authority position,” reads the group’s declaration. The LULAC statement released Monday makes specific reference to the convoy and reports that at least some of its organizers called themselves “God’s army.” Abbott last week escalated a standoff with the Biden administration over border security, issuing a statement doubling down on his description of conditions along the border as an “invasion.” The escalation followed a Supreme Court decision to allow officials with the Border Patrol, a federal agency, to cut and remove razor wire set up by Texas law enforcement agencies, including the Texas Department of Public Safety and the Texas National Guard. “Abbott and his supporters are creating a media circus for political gain and to raise money. LULAC abhorrently condemns hate speech, actions, and lies that hurt human life, especially those coming to the United States to survive deplorable conditions and seek refuge,” said García.
Biden administration announces steps to prohibit use of salary history for federal employees, contractors - The Biden administration announced two new steps Monday to prohibit the use of salary history for federal employees and federal contractors. For federal workers, the Office of Personnel Management announced a new regulation for agencies that will prohibit the use of salary history in setting pay for roles in the government. For federal contractors, the administration announced a proposed rule that would prohibit contractors from seeking and considering information about job applicants’ past compensation when making employment decisions. The proposed rule, which the Federal Acquisition Regulatory Council will publish Monday, would also institute pay transparency measures that require contractors to disclose compensation ranges in job postings. “Relying on a candidate salary history can exacerbate pre-existing inequality in our pay structures and disproportionately impact women and workers of color,” Shalanda Young, director of the Office of Management and Budget, told reporters. The regulation and proposed rule are both part of an effort for federal employers to disclose expected salary ranges in job postings and reduce pay secrecy to help workers negotiate. The Biden administration marked the 15-year anniversary of the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act with the announcements. The law, signed during the Obama administration, expanded important protections against pay discrimination. “Despite this progress, the fight for equal pay continues. Women workers are still paid on average 84 cents for every dollar paid to men, and the disparities are even greater for many women of color. Today, my Administration is taking new actions to advance pay equity for the federal workforce and employees of federal contractors,” President Biden said in a statement. The regulation for federal employees will be pushed Jan. 30 and go into effect 60 days later. The proposed rule for federal contractors will go into a public comment period for 60 days.
Struggling For Recruits, US Navy Lowers Education Standard - The U.S. Navy said on Jan. 26 that it will start to enlist those who didn’t graduate from high school in the latest attempt to fill its ranks in the wake of a recruiting crisis that troubles every branch of the U.S. military. Under the new plan, Navy recruits without a high school diploma will be able to join as long as they score 50 or higher on the Armed Forces Qualification Test (AFQT), which is used to determine basic eligibility for military service. The highest possible AFQT score is 99.Those without a General Educational Development, or GED, credential can also enlist as long as they meet the same AFQT score threshold. The GED consists of four academic subject tests—math, science, social studies, and reasoning through language arts—and passing those tests certifies that the taker has the skills and knowledge equivalent to a high school graduate.The last time that the Navy allowed those who lacked education credentials to enlist was in 2000, according to the Chief of Naval Personnel’s office. In a statement announcing the change, Navy officials said it is “another pathway of opportunity for previously excluded individuals to serve” and that it could fill some 500 to 2,000 empty slots at sea every year.In addition, the new plan could help to accommodate those who struggled to graduate high school because of the COVID-19 pandemic, a period marked by widespread school closures, social isolation, and on-and-off online classes. The pandemic also forced military recruiters out of high schools, where they traditionally reach prospective candidates at events such as career day fairs.“This policy update benefits the Navy by expanding the potential applicant pool of highly qualified and motivated future Sailors who may have been impacted by COVID-19 trends of non-traditional schooling, early exit from high school to support their family, or a variety of other individual circumstances,” Navy officials said in the statement.Once they are in the service, sailors can take advantage of free academic skills training programs and test preparation courses to work toward a GED, according to the statement. “Sailors who enlist under this policy change can achieve personal and professional growth by earning their GED while gaining experience in cutting-edge technologies and learning professional skills that allow them to exceed their expectations while serving in the Navy,” it stated.
Mitch McConnell’s Plan to Sabotage Social Security From Within - Mitch McConnell and his fellow Republicans hate Social Security, because it is popular, effective, and doesn’t make any money for their billionaire donors. But McConnell understands the political dangers of being openly hostile to Social Security. So instead, he is plotting to sabotage it from within. The latest instrument of that sabotage is Andrew Biggs, a senior fellow at the billionaire-funded American Enterprise Institute. Biggs is McConnell’s pick to serve on the Social Security Advisory Board (SSAB), which “provides advice and recommendations to the President, Congress, and the Commissioner of Social Security on matters related to the Social Security and Supplemental Security Income programs and policies.”If confirmed to the SSAB, Biggs would have increased influence with policymakers and the media. Biggs has a long history that shows how he would use that influence: To push for Social Security cuts that would devastate working and middle class Americans, while shielding billionaires from paying their fair share into the system.Biggs seems to think everyone has a cushy, billionaire-funded desk job like his, and would be happy to work until they die.Biggs served as an associate commissioner of Social Security under former President George W. Bush and was instrumental in Bush’s push to privatize Social Security. His goal was to hand the American people’s earned benefits over to Wall Street. Thankfully, the Bush privatization push failed due to massive grassroots opposition.Biggs supports raising the retirement age, and has testified before Congress that people should work longer. In his words:Go back to 1950, when we had a highly industrialized economy. You had coal miners, and farmers, and factory workers. The average age of initial Social Security claiming then was 68. Today, when your biggest on the job risk is, you know, carpal tunnel syndrome from your mouse or something like that, it’s 63... [T]he idea that we can’t have a higher retirement age, I think it just flies in the face of the fact that people did, in fact, retire later in the past, and today’s jobs are less physically demanding than they were in the past. Nurses, firefighters, auto workers, and so many others would be surprised to hear that their jobs aren’t physically demanding! Biggs seems to think everyone has a cushy, billionaire-funded desk job like his, and would be happy to work until they die.Biggs also wants to turn Social Security from an earned benefit into a poverty-level flat benefit. That means huge cuts for middle class workers who’ve been paying into the program their entire lives. It would destroy Social Security’s political popularity by turning it into a welfare program—a sitting duck for Republicans to make even larger cuts.What Biggs doesn’t want is for his billionaire donors to pay their fair share into Social Security. He doesn’t want the American people to know that if billionaires pay into Social Security all year long on all of their income, not only can we protect Social Security—we can expand benefits.Andrew Biggs is an enemy of Social Security, and we need to keep him off the SSAB. The Senate Finance Committee is holding a hearing on the nomination this week, and the Senate may hold a vote soon. Democrats have a majority in the U.S. Senate, and they must stand united to protect Social Security from Mitch McConnell’s saboteur.
Dems Slam Social Security Board Nominee Over History of Supporting Benefit Cuts -- Democrats on the U.S. Senate Finance Committee raised alarm Wednesday over the nomination of American Enterprise Institute senior fellow Andrew Biggs to serve on the Social Security Advisory Board, pointing to his long record of supporting privatization effortsand benefit cuts. President Joe Biden first nominated Biggs to the independent board in 2022 and renominated him early last year following the end of the 117th Congress. By nominating Biggs, a conservative, to the post, Biden adhered to the board's tradition of bipartisanship. But during the finance committee's confirmation hearing for Biggs and other nominees, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) said that she doesn't "understand why we are being asked to confirm someone whose plan for strengthening Social Security is to gut its protection" to a spot on the Social Security Advisory Board (SSAB), which advises lawmakers, the president, the Social Security commissioner on how to bolster the New Deal program. "In all fairness to Mr. Biggs, his views are not extreme outliers," Warren added. "His plan is Republicans' plan. Republican policymakers have spent years trying to undermine Social Security by pushing to reduce benefits, to raise the retirement age, and to cut payroll taxes that keep the program alive." Warren pressed Biggs on whether he supports raising taxes on the wealthy to ensure Social Security's solvency over the long term, as Democratic lawmakers have proposed. In 2023, millionaires stopped paying into Social Security just two months into the year thanks to a cap on the amount of income subject to the program's payroll tax. Biggs said he would "prefer not to" lift the payroll tax cap. "So you oppose it, OK," Warren responded. "Raising the payroll tax income cap so that the wealthiest Americans pay their fair share would extend Social Security's solvency by 75 years. But if you take raising revenue from the wealthiest people off the table, then that leaves one option to extend Social Security's solvency, and that is benefit cuts." Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) pointed to Biggs' tenure on a George W. Bush administration commission that suggested partially privatizing Social Security by allowing workers to move a portion of their payroll tax contributions into private accounts, a change that would have compromised the program's primary funding source. "I'm concerned about your record on Social Security, as you know," Brown said Wednesday, adding that Biggs and his allies support letting "Wall Street gamble with people's guaranteed retirement security." "You advocated privatizing Social Security," said Brown. "You and your allies back off that sometimes, saying you're not—but you have been." Biggs told Brown that he does not support privatizing Social Security,breaking with his previous view. Biggs also said that his proposed frameworks for Social Security reform have not included raising the retirement age—but acknowledged he has said in the past that it's not an "unreasonable idea." During a Senate Finance Committee subcommittee hearing in 2013, Biggs said the "idea that we can't have a higher retirement age I think it just flies in the face of the fact that people did, in fact, retire later in the past, and today's jobs are less physically demanding than they were in the past." Wednesday's hearing came two weeks after the Republican-controlled House Budget Committee voted largely along party lines to advance legislation to create a fiscal commission for the nation's trust fund programs. Opponents of the bill say it's a ploy to fast-track cuts to Social Security and Medicare.
Cori Bush Demands Apology After GOP Lawmaker Calls Her Husband 'Thug' --Democratic Missouri Congresswoman Cori Bush on Tuesday demanded an apology after one of her Republican colleagues called her husband a "thug" and suggested that she shouldn't be so outspoken if she does not wish to receive death threats.Commenting on the U.S. Justice Department probe of Bush's alleged misuse of campaign funds to pay her now-husband Cortney Merritts to provide private security services, Rep. Troy Nehls (R-Texas) toldCNN's Melanie Zanona that the progressive congresswoman "doesn't even support the police.""But the idea to pay her thug money to try to help protect her this and that, for what?" he added. "Maybe if she wouldn't be so loud all the time, maybe she wouldn't be getting threats."Asked by Zanona if Bush deserved to be threatened, Nehls replied: "No, what I'm saying is, is that when you're out there talking the way she does... she's pretty radical. And maybe she should tone it down a little bit."Bush—who denies the allegations against her—said on social media that Nehls "just called my husband, a Black man and Army veteran, a thug. And I'm the loud Black woman who needs to be silent in order to be safe from violence, or else?""Squad" members including Bush and Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez(D-N.Y.), Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), and Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) haverepeatedly received death threats from white supremacists and others opposed to their progressive politics. Nehls' remarks resemble some of the worst threats Bush has received.Tlaib said on social media that Nehls' "comments are racist, dangerous, and unacceptable."
Boebert finishes fifth in straw poll of new district --Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) came in fifth place in a straw poll of voters in the district where the controversial congresswoman recently relocated and is trying to win reelection to the House. Boebert, who was first elected to represent Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District in 2020,announced last month she would switch districts and instead run for reelection this year in the 4th District, after its House member, Rep. Ken Buck (R), decided to retire from Congress. The new district for Boebert would likely give her a significantly better chance at reelection if she wins the Republican nomination. She currently represents a swing district, and Boebert had seemed likely before her switch to face off a second time against Democrat Adam Frisch, whom she defeated in 2022 by fewer than 600 votes. The 4th District, meanwhile, is a solidly Republican district that has elected a Democratic House member only once in the past 50 years. But the results of the straw poll Thursday, which followed the first debate among GOP candidates running for that district, indicates Boebert may have an uphill battle.
Cheers erupt as Graham tells Zuckerberg ‘you have blood on your hands’ - Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) on Wednesday blasted Mark Zuckerberg, the CEO of Meta, over the company’s content moderation policies, specifically regarding children and teenagers, which was the subject of a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing.“Mr. Zuckerberg, you and the companies before us, I know you don’t mean it to be so, but you have blood on your hands,” Graham said as cheers erupted from spectators in the hearing room.“You have a product that’s killing people,” he added.Zuckerberg, X CEO Linda Yaccarino, TikTok CEO Shou Chew, Snap CEO Evan Spiegel, and Discord CEO Jason Citron all appeared before the panel during its hearing titled “Big Tech and the Online Child Sexual Exploitation Crisis.”“It is now time to repeal section 230,” Graham said, referring to a federal law that allows online operators and publishers to moderate content on their platforms as they wish.Earlier during the hearing, Zuckerberg told the committee, “These issues are important every parent and every platform committed to continuing to work in these areas. And I hope we can make progress today.” A person in the audience at the hearing, which is filled with parent advocates in the crowd, yelled out “no thanks” in response.
Hunter Biden Partner Says Payments From China Were Delayed Until Joe Biden Left Office - A former partner of President Joe Biden’s son has told members of Congress that members of the Biden family were not paid by China until after the Obama administration ended.Hunter Biden and associates started working with CEFC, a Chinese firm linked to the ruling communist party, in 2015.But payments for the work did not start flowing until after President Biden in January 2017 departed as vice president, Rob Walker, the former partner of Hunter Biden, was said to have told members.“Today’s interview confirmed Hunter Biden and his associates’ work with the Chinese government-linked energy company began over a year before Joe Biden left the vice presidency, but the Bidens and their associates held off being paid by the Chinese while Joe Biden was in office,” Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.), chairman of the U.S. House of Representatives Oversight Committee, said in a Jan. 26 statement. President Biden was vice president from 2009 to 2017.Mr. Walker, who testified behind closed doors, could not be reached.In a prepared opening statement, Mr. Walker said that he spent years pursuing “legitimate business” with Mr. Biden and that President Biden “was never involved in any of the business activities we pursued.”“Hunter made sure there was always a clear boundary between any business and his father,” Mr. Walker said. The White House said that Mr. Walker’s testimony had refuted Republican claims about President Biden. Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), ranking member of the House Oversight Committee, said that “Mr. Walker reaffirmed today what we already know by now: Joe Biden was not involved in, did not profit from, and took no official actions in relation to his family’s business dealings.”Republicans in the House are interviewing former associates of Mr. Biden as part of an impeachment inquiry. Mr. Biden has not yet sat for questions in the probe.Mr. Walker told FBI agents in 2020 that President Biden stopped in while Mr. Walker, Mr. Biden, and Chinese businessmen were eating lunch at the Four Seasons, according to a transcript given to Congress by IRS whistleblowers. Mr. Walker also said President Biden met with CEFC officials while still vice president.The interview with Mr. Walker confirmed that the meeting happened, Mr. Comer said in a summary. A transcript of the interview is expected to be released at a later date.Shortly after the Obama administration ended, a Chinese company paid Mr. Biden and associates $3 million “as a ‘thank you’ for the work they did while Joe Biden was in office,” Mr. Comer added. “Members of the Biden family received payments from the Chinese deal even though they did not work on it. This is the type of swampy influence peddling the American people want us to end.”A spokesman for Mr. Comer did not respond when asked for more details about what Mr. Walker told members.
Hunter Biden business associate tells House Oversight Committee GOP allegations are 'preposterous' - A longtime business partner of Hunter Biden, Eric Schwerin, said in a closed-door interview Tuesday with members of the House Oversight Committee that he is "not aware of any financial transactions or compensation" that then-Vice President Joe Biden received related to business conducted by this family members, calling the allegations "preposterous," according to Schwerin's opening statement obtained by ABC News.Schwerin was called the appear before the Oversight Committee as part of the Republican-ledimpeachment inquiry into the President Joe Biden, for whom Schwerin previously worked as a financial adviser before going into business with his son, Hunter Biden."I am not aware of any financial transactions or compensation that Vice President Biden received related to business conducted by any of his family members or their associates nor any involvement by him in their businesses. None," Schwerin told the committee, according to his statement. "I cannot recall any requests for Vice President Biden to take any official action on behalf of any of Hunter's clients or his business deals, foreign or domestic," Schwerin said. "In fact, I am not aware of any role that Vice President Biden, as a public official or a private citizen, had in any of Hunter's business activities. None." Schwerin, who "managed almost every aspect of [Hunter Biden's] financial life" for years, according to Kathleen Buhle, Hunter Biden's ex-wife, in her 2022 memoir, "If We Break," also told committee members that he never asked President Biden to "take any official actions for the benefit of Hunter's clients or any other client.""Furthermore, I have no recollection of any promises or suggestions made by Hunter or myself to any clients or business associates that his father would take any official actions on their behalf. None," he said. According to what Schwerin said he previously told Oversight Committee staff, between 2009 and 2017 he performed a number of administrative and bookkeeping tasks for then-Vice President Joe Biden related to his household finances, and helped him and his accountants in their preparation of his taxes and his annual financial disclosure statements.Schwerin told the Oversight Committee Tuesday that "in my discussions with the Vice President concerning his personal finances, he was always crystal clear that he wanted to take the most transparent and ethical approach consistent with both the spirit and the letter of the law.""Given my awareness of his finances and the explicit directions he gave to his financial advisers, the allegation that he would engage in any improper conduct to benefit himself or his family is preposterous to me," Schwerin said.
Comer: Hunter Biden associates ‘had a hard time remembering the bad things’ -- House Oversight Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) provided an update Tuesday on the Hunter Biden probe, suggesting those they bought in for closed-door depositions were unable to remember his past.“Now, you know, all of the people that we brought in for depositions, they have a hard time remembering the bad things,” Comer said in an interview with Fox News’s Sean Hannity. Comer added that Eric Schwerin, a former business associate of President Biden’s son whoreceived a subpoena, was a “key central figure in paying all the bills and make sure Hunter Biden wasn’t over drafted in the bank.”The Kentucky lawmaker said Schwerin used “the same talking points” that other associates have used, which denies that President Biden had any involvement in his son’s foreign business dealings.“But one thing he said that I think is very interesting is he said he did all this for Joe Biden and never charged Joe Biden anything,” Comber said. “So, he provided a very valuable service to Joe Biden for free. That’s an ethics violation.”According to ABC News, he stated in opening remarks that he was not aware of any financial transactions or compensation that President Biden received related to business from any family members.Comer, who led the push to get the younger Biden to sit for a closed-door deposition — calling it a “huge victory” when the president’s son finally agreed — reiterated his allegation that if Schwerin “was doing President Biden’s books,” it is a “clear” ethics violation.“This is another example of comingling of accounting funds that the Bidens used. There was not a wall between Joe Biden and Hunter Biden and his schemes, like the president has always said,” Comer said. “There just wasn’t.”Schwerin told the committee that in his discussions with President Biden, who was vice president at the time, he was concerned about taking a transparent and ethical approach. He called the allegations led by the GOP “preposterous,” per ABC News. Hunter Biden and the president have both maintained that President Biden was not involved in his son’s business dealings. The depositions in the probe come as part of a multipronged impeachment inquiry into President Biden, who is currently running for reelection.
Prosecutors urge judge not to delay Jan. 6 defendant’s sentencing, alleging remaining incarcerated is his goal --nFederal prosecutors are urging a judge to deny a request to delay sentencing for a rioter who stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, alleging that he wants to remain incarcerated. Brandon Fellows was convicted on Aug. 31, 2023, of felony obstruction of an official proceeding and felony entering and remaining in a restricted building. He was also found guilty of three misdemeanor offenses, the Department of Justice (DOJ) reported. Fellows is a handyman who lives in a converted school bus in New York. He represented himself at trial, the DOJ said. He is seeking a stay, or a delay, in his sentencing until “at least mid-2024,” court documents said. “The defendant essentially seeks a postponement of the sentencing hearing in his case. The Government has no doubt that he would like to delay his sentencing by any means necessary,” prosecutors said. Prosecutors said Fellows is trying “yet another attempt” to “delay and obstruct the administration of justice in his case.” Fellows has been incarcerated since July 15, 2021, just over 30 months. The prosecution said his misdemeanor convictions carry a maximum sentence of 36 months, which makes it “possible that the Court could impose a sentence that the defendant has already served.” In a Dec. 13, 2023 hearing, Fellows allegedly said he was in no rush to proceed with sentencing, which the prosecution said points to his goal being to remain incarcerated. On Jan. 6, 2021, Fellows was photographed smoking marijuana inside Sen. Jeff Merkley’s (D-Ore.) office after breaching the Capitol. He was quoted in a 2021 Bloomberg article just days after the insurrection where he said he had no regrets. In July 2021, Fellows’ bail was revoked by a judge after he allegedly left lewd and rambling voicemails for his probation officer and her mother.
The Supreme Court can’t punt on Trump’s disqualification without threatening the Constitution - When the Supreme Court reviews Colorado’s decision to exclude President Trump from the state’s ballot, it will be delving into wholly uncharted territory. The Supreme Court has never interpreted the constitutional provision prohibiting former office-holding insurrectionists from holding future office. Several leading constitutional scholars argue that, in part for this reason, the constitutional ban cannot be enforced without prior congressional enactment of guiding directives. The high court may consider this option to provide a welcome off-ramp. But the position that the constitutional ban on insurrectionist office holders is not activated absent congressional legislation is not only incorrect, it also threatens the very foundations of America’s constitutional system. While our governmental system embraces democracy, our Constitution is anything but democratic. Our elected representatives cannot repeal any part of the Constituion by majority vote. Our system was grounded not only in democracy but in the need for checks and balances. The Framers recognized that democracies were always vulnerable to factions and tyranny. They therefore constructed the Constitution as a check on legislative and executive decisions. It was also decided early on that the unrepresentative, unaccountable courts would have final say as to the meaning of the Constitution’s directives. After all, what would be the point of imposing limits on majorities if those majorities had final say as to what those directives mean? To undermine that long-accepted system is to threaten the delicate balance between democracy and constitutionalism. Without some constitutional directive to the contrary, it is dangerous for the Supreme Court to defer to Congress in the interpretation of the Constitution. Section 3 of the 14th Amendment provides that no one who has “previously taken an oath … as an officer of the United States … to support the Constitution of the United States” shall hold “any office … under the United States” if they have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the United States. It further provides that “Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.” Certain scholars, noting that the 14th Amendment’s Section 5 vests in Congress the power to enforce the Amendment’s directives through legislation, have argued that Congress must first enact statutory guidelines for Section 3 to be triggered. This position is wrong for two reasons. First, it is inescapably inconsistent with Section 3’s explicit text. As already noted, Section 3 states that the ban may be “remove[d]” by a vote of two-thirds of both houses of Congress. If Section 3’s ban doesn’t exist prior to congressional legislation, there would of course be nothing to be “remove[d]” in the first place. Congress’s role is confined to the option to remove that ban, not by enacting legislation, which requires only a majority vote, but by a supermajority vote. The approach advocated by these scholars (as well as in Trump’s brief), in sharp contrast, argues that Congress prevents the ban from going into effect simply by refusing to legislate. More importantly, the scholars’ approach ignores the special role served by the Constitution. The Constitution is a limit on majorities; it makes no sense, then, to have the Constitution’s enforcement turn on the whim of majorities. The 14th Amendment’s directives are framed in mandatory terms, not subject to majoritarian whim. They are designed to protect minorities from majoritarian pressures and the majority from dictators. It is therefore the role of the Supreme Court, not Congress, to interpret the 14th Amendment’s provisions.
Trump NY fraud verdict now expected by mid-February: Court - A New York judge is expected to issue an “early to mid-February” ruling in the $370 million civil fraud case brought against former President Trump by the New York attorney general’s office, a court spokesperson said Thursday. Judge Arthur Engoron previously said he would aim to issue a decision by the end of January but emphasized that the deadline was not firm. The new mid-February deadline is a “rough estimate” and is “subject to modifications,” according to the court spokesperson. New York Attorney General Letitia James (D) sued Trump in 2022, claiming he falsely altered his net worth on key financial statements to receive tax and insurance benefits. The documents detailed the value of the Trump Organization’s various assets and were sent to banks and insurers to secure loans and deals. The state purports those transactions are evidence of fraud, while Trump has maintained that there was no fraud and the banks who received the documents did their own due diligence. The fraud trial ended in January after two months of testimony from 40 witnesses, including ex-Trump fixer Michael Cohen, top Trump Organization executives, Trump’s adult children involved in his business and the former president himself. Before the trial began, Engoron found Trump, the Trump Organization and several top executives, including his adult sons, liable for fraud. Trump and the judge have had a contentious relationship throughout the trial. In addition to the $370 million financial penalty, James has asked Engoron to ban Trump from New York’s real estate business for life. The judge could issue his decision at any time.
Trump says he’s interviewing new lawyers for Carroll case appeal, attacks judge - Former President Trump suggested late Tuesday night he may be shopping for new lawyers to represent him in an imminent appeal of the damages verdict in the case brought against him by writer E. Jean Carroll. A New York City jury last week ordered Trump to pay Carroll $83.3 million for defaming her in 2019, when he denied the longtime advice columnist’s accusation that he sexually assaulted her decades earlier. Trump said Tuesday he is “in the process” of interviewing several law firms to represent him in his appeal. “Any lawyer who takes a TRUMP CASE is either ‘CRAZY,’ or a TRUE AMERICAN PATRIOT,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “I will make my decision soon!” The former president was represented in the initial trial by attorney Alina Habba, a New Jersey-based lawyer who also represented Trump and his company during his New York civil fraud trial that ended earlier this month. It’s not uncommon to seek different representation when handling an appeal, and the post doesn’t make clear that Habba was removed from the case or Trump’s broader legal team. The Hill requested comment from representatives for Habba and Trump. Habba drops allegation after brushback from Carroll lawyer Habba and U.S. District Judge Lewis Kaplan, who oversaw the case, repeatedly butted heads throughout the trial. At one point, while discussing threats sent to Carroll, Habba said she had also received threats during the trial. The judge scolded her, saying the comment was “inappropriate.” In another exchange, Kaplan threatened to send Habba to jail after she interrupted him to make record of her argument over a slide presentation. “You are on the verge of spending some time in the lockup. Now sit down,” Kaplan told Habba.
Carroll says she would ‘absolutely’ sue Trump again if another case arises Longtime advice columnist E. Jean Carroll on Monday said she is “more than willing” to sue former President Trump again if another case arose in the future.A jury last week ordered Trump to pay a whopping $83.3 million for defaming Carroll in 2019 when he denied the writer’s allegation that he sexually assaulted her in the mid-1990s. MSNBC anchor Rachel Maddow, speaking with Carroll and her lawyers on Monday, brought up Trump’s recent posts on Truth Social, in which the former president shared multiple posts and articles about Carroll’s allegations.“He seems to be pushing it already in terms of whether or not he is going to go back to calling you a ‘liar’ or denying that he did what he did,” Maddow said.Maddow then asked Carroll if she would sue Trump again if her lawyers told her there is another case against him. Carroll answered, “Absolutely. Absolutely.”Maddow followed it up by asking Carroll if the trial wasn’t too much “wear and tear.”“Rachel, many people as you know, have been through much worse than I went through at that trial,” Carroll responded. “People suffered more difficult things than I’ve ever been through in my life. And I’m more than willing to do it again, because we achieved so much in a seven-day trial. We did what people thought was impossible. We beat Donald Trump.”Earlier in the interview, Carroll celebrated the verdict, telling Maddow she believes it “bodes well for the future.”“I think we planted our flag,” she said. “I think we’ve made a statement that things are going to be different, that there’s going to be a new way of doing things in this country because of this indestructible team of lawyers.”Last week’s jury verdict was the second time Carroll won damages from Trump after a separate jury last year found Trump liable for sexually abusing Carroll and defaming her in separate remarks. The former president was ordered to pay $5 million.Trump has maintained Carroll was lying and fabricated the accusation to sell her book and has repeated this claim in multiple social media posts over the past several days.In one Truth Social post hours before the verdict, Trump contended he was “wrongfully accused by a woman he never met, saw or touched (a photo line does not count!) and knows absolutely nothing about.”
'The Guy Is a Hero': IRS Contractor Who Leaked Trump Tax Returns Gets Max Sentence -- As the U.S. tax season began Monday, a former Internal Revenue Service contractor who leaked to the media the tax records of wealthy Americans including ex-President Donald Trump was sentenced to five years in prison and ordered to pay a $5,000 fine.U.S. District Judge Ana C. Reyes, an appointee of President Joe Biden, handed down the maximum sentence to Charles Littlejohn, whopleaded guilty to unauthorized disclosure of tax returns and return information in October. Littlejohn gave The New York Timesinformationon Trump—who is expected to face Biden in the November election—and shared with ProPublica data on Jeff Bezos, Michael Bloomberg, Warren Buffett, Bill Gates, Rupert Murdoch, Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, and more.While Reyes called the decision to release Trump's filings "an attack on our constitutional democracy" and Littlejohn told the court that he "acted out of a sincere but misguided belief that I was serving the public," others framed the 38-year-old's move as heroic."This guy is a hero who showed us how the superrich steal from the American public," Slate politics writer Alexander Sammon said Monday. "Naturally, the judge gave him a max sentence, claiming it was 'a moral imperative' to punish him as harshly as possible."Jeff Hauser of the Revolving Door Project noted that "this whistleblower's cause has been ignored by a LOT of people who have defended much more intrusive leaking. (Tax returns were public in the past, are in some countries now, and should be fully transparent—they're inherently public information, unlike, e.g., John Podesta's emails)."People's Policy Project founder Matt Bruenig similarly pointed out that "in Finland, these returns are public record available to anyone who wants to see them."After decades of presidential candidates voluntarily releasing income tax returns, Trump declined to do so—breaking his promise to make them public. The Republican also unsuccessfully fought to block Congress from receiving some of his tax records.
Election 2024: China sees two 'bowls of poison' in Biden and Trump (AP) — As the U.S. presidential campaign moves closer to a Donald Trump-Joe Biden rematch, China is watching uneasily.First, there are concerns about the campaign itself, where candidates are likely to talk tough on China. That could threaten the fragile improvements in U.S.-China relations seen in recent months.Then there’s the outcome of the November vote. Neither candidate is particularly appealing to Beijing. While Biden has looked for areas of cooperation with China, Beijing is concerned about his efforts to unite allies in the Indo-Pacific in a coalition against China. It’s also nervous about his approach to Taiwan after he has repeatedly said he would have U.S. troops defend it in a conflict with China. Trump, with his isolationist approach to foreign policy, might be more hesitant to defend Taiwan. But nothing can be ruled out given his unpredictability and his tough rhetoric on China, which he blames for the COVID-19 outbreak that dogged the end of his term. He also could deepen a trade war that hasn’t eased since his presidency.“For China, no matter who won the U.S. presidential election, they would be two ‘bowls of poison’,” said Zhao Minghao, a professor of international relations at Fudan University in Shanghai.Even with the slight improvement in relations, tensions remain high, particularly over Taiwan. The question of who is in the White House could have enormous consequences not only for U.S.-China relations but for peace in the Asia-Pacific region.Zhao’s views are echoed by a number of analysts in both countries, who suggest Beijing may find Biden the lesser of two evils for his steadiness over Trump’s unpredictability but also point out that the Chinese government agonizes over Biden’s success in building partnerships to counter China.“No matter who takes office, it will not change the overall direction of America’s strategic competition with China,” said Sun Chenghao, a fellow at the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University. “China doesn’t have any preference for who will win the presidential election because China has experience dealing with either of them for four years.”
Big business braces for potential return of Trump --Big business is bracing for the return of former President Trump, as Republican voters appear certain to give him a third shot at the White House. After Trump scored key wins in Iowa and New Hampshire against former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley — the preferred choice of some major business figures — corporate leaders seem keen on getting out of the former president’s crosshairs. “Most senior businessmen I talk to can’t stand the guy. They just recognize that he’s very dangerous for the country,” said Larry Harris, a finance professor at the University of Southern California and former chief economist at Securities and Exchange Commission.“But nobody wants to open their mouth. Because unless everybody acts simultaneously, whoever pops up gets beaten down immediately.”Harris suggested that most business leaders don’t want to suffer the consequences of standing against Trump alone. “I mean, look what happened to Disney by [former Republican presidential candidate and Gov. Ron] DeSantis in Florida, and DeSantis didn’t have anywhere near the power that Trump does,” he added.J.P. Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, who was urging fellow business leaders to back Haley just two months ago, offered praise for Trump’s first-term policies while at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, earlier this month.“Just take a step back and be honest,” Dimon said. “He was kind of right about NATO. He was kind of right about immigration. He grew the economy quite well. Trade, tax reform worked. He was right about some of China.” “I don’t like how he said things about Mexico, but he wasn’t wrong about some of these critical issues,” he added.Dimon also spoke up in defense of Trump’s supporters, urging President Biden and Democrats to “grow up.”“I mean, really, can we just stop that stuff and actually grow up and treat other people with respect and listen to them a little bit?”Stephen Schwarzman, chair and CEO of the investment firm Blackstone, has also shifted his tune on the former president. The GOP mega-donor came out against Trump in November, saying it was “time for the Republican Party to turn to a new generation of leaders.”However, at Davos, Schwarzman didn’t rule out supporting the former president again.“I’m in the, ‘Let’s wait and see how this works,’” he said when pressed on whether he would back Trump in the election. “I’m not into the hypothetical world yet, as much as you’d like me to be. And we’ll see what happens. There are always surprises in these elections.” Anthony Scaramucci, who briefly served as Trump’s White House communications director and has since become a frequent critic of the former president, accused Wall Street of being “basically nonchalant” about the 2024 election.“I think they view Donald Trump by and large as benign to somewhat beneficial to the economy and business,” he said in an interview with The Hill earlier this month.
Fincen fines ex-credit union staffer in elaborate money laundering plot — Treasury's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network Wednesday announced a $100,000 civil money penalty against a former credit union employee in connection with a cross-border money laundering operation that transformed roughly $1 billion in Mexican cash and checks to electronic deposits using the credit union's Fed master account. Fincen issued a consent order against Gyanendra Kumar Asre, formerly employed with the now-defunct New York State Employees' Federal Credit Union, which found that Asre willfully violated federal anti-money-laundering laws in his capacity at NYSEFCU and also by neglecting to register the money services business DDH Group LLC, where he served as chairman and chief executive officer, with the Treasury's crime unit. The consent order fined Asre $100,000 and barred him from working with any BSA-bound firm for five years. Asre has also pleaded guilty to related criminal charges filed by the Department of Justice. "Asre allowed millions of dollars in high-risk transactions to be processed without required anti-money-laundering controls or reporting to Fincen," said Fincen Director Andrea Gacki. "Today's action serves as a reminder that Fincen will not hesitate to take action against individuals when their conduct jeopardizes the integrity of our financial system." According to the order, Asre reportedly transformed the New York–based credit union from a single branch, not-for-profit credit union serving the state's civil servants with a single common-bond field of membership into a vessel for smuggling bulk paper notes and currency from abroad. Asre was also a senior employee of IBI Armored Car at the time he approached NYSEFCU in early 2014. After arrival, he quickly began to co-opt the NYSEFCU to allow two large Mexico-based banks to transform foreign nationals' wholesale cash and checks into electronic deposits. Asre offered to help manage the credit union — promising the credit union greater revenue — if, in turn, NYSEFCU would open its field of membership in order to bank IBI's 150 employees. In March 2015, after Asre took over as NYSEFCU's Bank Secrecy Act Compliance Officer, the credit union requested — and later received authorization from — the National Credit Union Administration to convert its charter to a multiple common-bond charter to accommodate the credit union's ability to serve the 150 IBI employees. Around the same time, Asre successfully pushed NYSEFCU to open a master account at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to facilitate international transfers for IBI. Asre then used a money services business named NYSEFCU-CUSO, LLC — partially controlled by Asre and established in July 2014 as a special purpose Credit Union Service Organization — to accept bulk cash deposits from a large unnamed Mexican bank. IBI then began to accept bulk cash from the Mexican Bank, which it physically deposited in IBI's NYSEFCU account. Once deposited, the New York employee credit union internally transferred the money to Asre's MSB NYSEFCU-CUSO. Using the newly acquired Fed master account, the credit union then would transmit such funds by wire transfer back to the foreign bank. The scheme continued for over a year according to Fincen, with Asre directing the transactions. Asre's promise to increase the credit union's revenue came to fruition. And while the cross-border cash-to-electronic-deposit scheme grew to encompass the vast majority of the credit union's revenue, Fincen noted, the alleged scheme also led to NYSEFCU's demise. "NYSEFCU's business model changed drastically to incorporate bulk currency transactions from Mexico, which ultimately became 99% of NYSEFCU's revenue before currency repatriation services were ceased," the consent order noted. "Thereafter, Asre controlled almost the entirety of the Credit Union's revenue source until the Credit Union ceased operations in October 2017."
Bank Fraud Enters a New Era: Bank-to-Bank Wire Transfers Loot Customers - By Pam and Russ Martens: February 2, 2024 ~ Yesterday, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee held a hearing under the title: “Examining Scams and Fraud in the Banking System and Their Impact on Consumers.” Let that title sink in for a moment – “Scams and Fraud,” “Banking System.” That’s the federally-insured banking system of the United States of America in which millions of Americans have entrusted their life savings because they believe it to be the safest place to put their money. Indeed, federally-insured banks had been the safest place to put money since 1933, when the Glass-Steagall Act was signed into law, until the repeal of the Act by the Wall Street friendly Bill Clinton administration in 1999. Thanks to that egregious repeal of critical consumer protection legislation, the following has happened:Trading casinos on Wall Street have been allowed to merge with federally-insured banks with a porous wall of separation;The trading activities of these so-called “universal banks” crashed the U.S. financial system in 2008, bringing about the worst economic crisis in the U.S. since the Great Depression of the 1930s;Because these trading casinos had created a protection racket of holding enormous sums of federally-insured deposits, they were deemed “too-big-to-fail” and received a secret $29 trillion bailout by the Federal Reserve from December 2007 through at least July of 2010;Today, an American consumer can walk into a federally-insured bank seeking to buy a federally-insured certificate of deposit and walk out with an uninsured product sold to them by a salesperson from the trading side of the bank;The criminal division of the Justice Department and federal regulators have had to bring non-stop charges of fraud against these “universal banks.” (The nonprofit watchdog, Better Markets, has tallied up the 23-year crime spree of just six of the Wall Street mega banks. The six banks have paid almost $207billion in settlements and fines – and yet the frauds continue.)Yesterday we learned from the Senate Banking hearing that some of these same banks are refusing to make their customers whole when a fraudulent wire transfer is made by a scam artist and loots the customer’s federally-insured deposits. Consider the following three examples cited in the written testimony of Carla Sanchez-Adams of the National Consumer Law Center. These three frauds occurred at Chase Bank, the federally-insured banking unit of the global trading firm, JPMorgan Chase, which has racked up five criminal felony counts since 2014.“Jeff Phipps from Columbus, Ohio lost $8,500 after the fraudster, impersonating a bank employee, called and convinced the man that his account had been hacked into and he needed to provide login information to protect it. They asked him if he had authorized a wire transfer and he replied, ‘no’. They kept him on the phone for an hour and 47 minutes. They said, ‘Well, we want to deactivate your account. Can you send us your username and your passcode?’ And he did thinking it was Chase. The fraudster took $8,500 with this information and Chase refused to refund the victim’s money since he had given information to the scammer, ‘authorizing’ it.“Kelli Hinton, 7 months pregnant at the time, received a text about a fraudulent wire transfer from her account, then a follow-up call from a fraudster posing as a Chase fraud agent, spoofing Chase’s real phone number. The fraudster kept her on the line for an hour and convinced her to change her username and password, allowing him to drain $15,000 from her account.“Just months after experiencing a near fatal collision that left him in a wheelchair, Todd Evans from West Chester Township [of Ohio] was called by a fake Chase fraud protection agent. The fraudster told him about a fraudulent purchase from his account, which Todd confirmed was appearing on his account and which neither he nor his wife had made. The fraudster then mentioned a $45,000 fraudulent wire transfer from the account. Todd and his wife were nervous about addressing the fraud and asked the caller to verify his identity. He asked the couple to look at the number he was calling from and verify it matched the number on their debit card. Based on this confirmation, the couple allowed the fraudster to guide them through a ‘wire reversal process.’ Hours later they were out $63,000.” Bank fraud has exploded over the past three years.
New York AG sues Citibank over allegedly lax defenses against fraud - The New York State Attorney General sued Citibank on Tuesday, accusing the megabank of failing to protect, respond to and reimburse customers who are victims of fraud.Attorney General Letitia James alleged that the U.S. banking subsidiary of Citigroup does not implement strong data security and anti-breach practices, fails to respond appropriately to customers' claims of wire-transfer fraud and does not quickly and adequately inform them about their rights after their accounts are hacked and funds are stolen. James is also accusing the bank of illegally denying reimbursement to victims.The lawsuit — James' latest action against a big bank — is calling for Citi to pay penalties, improve its anti-fraud defense systems and pay back, with interest, New York-based customers who were victims of fraud in the past six years and denied reimbursement."Banks are supposed to be the safest place to keep money, yet Citi's negligence has allowed scammers to steal millions of dollars from hardworking people," James said in a press release. "If a bank cannot secure its customers' accounts, they are failing in their most basic duty."In response to the accusations, a Citi spokesperson said in an email that the company "closely follows all laws and regulations related to wire transfers and works extremely hard to prevent threats and to assist [clients] in recovering losses when possible." Yet banks don't have to fully reimburse customers for such fraud when customers follow scammers' instructions and "banks see no indication the customers are being deceived," the spokesperson said.The Citi spokesperson added that the bank has "taken proactive steps to safeguard clients' accounts," given the industry-wide increase in wire-transfer fraud in recent years. Those steps include the addition of new security protocols and fraud prevention tools and more customer education."Our actions have reduced client wire fraud losses significantly, and we remain committed to investing in fraud prevention measures to help our clients secure their accounts against emerging threats," the Citi spokesperson said in the email.Among the allegations in the New York AG's lawsuit is a claim that Citi, once it has been notified by customers of stolen funds, locks customers' bank accounts and tells them to visit their local Citi branch. The result is "investigations that are delayed hours or days," which permits scammers to "escape with stolen funds held at beneficiary banks," according to the lawsuit.The suit also states that customers "have lost their life savings" as a result of the fraud, with criminals diverting "millions of dollars from New York consumers as a direct result of Citi's illegal and deceptive acts and practices."
OCC fines City National $65 million over risk management shortcomings | American Banker— The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency has fined the Los Angeles-based City National Bank $65 million after it found that the firm had systemic deficiencies in its risk management practices and engaged in unsafe or unsound practices.The OCC — the primary supervisor for nationally chartered banks — issued a consent order Wednesday against the $93 billion-asset bank over concerns about its management of third-party risks, lack of robust internal controls, deficiencies in operational risk event reporting, and shortcomings in fraud risk management. While the bank did not confirm or deny the allegations, CNB agreed to take remedial actions to avoid further enforcement actions from its regulator. "The OCC expressly reserves its right to assess civil money penalties or take other enforcement actions if the OCC determines that the bank has continued, or failed to correct, the practices and/or violations," the consent order states. "These actions could include additional requirements and restrictions, such as: (a) requirements that the bank make or increase investments, acquire or hold additional capital or liquidity, or simplify or reduce its operations; or (b) restrictions on the bank's growth, business activities, or payment of dividends."The OCC notice announcing the penalty notes CNB's board of directors consented to the issuance of the consent order and has undertaken corrective actions and committed to addressing the identified deficiencies "in the interest of cooperation and to avoid additional costs associated with administrative and judicial proceedings."
Fincen issues guidance on avoiding banking sanctioned Israeli extremists — The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network on Thursday advised financial institutions to watch for red flags that may indicate the financing of Israeli extremist settlers after the Biden Administration sanctioned individuals for violence against Palestinians in the West Bank."The United States seeks to impose tangible and significant consequences on those engaged in such activities, as well as to protect the U.S. financial system from abuse," the alert noted.The alert came alongside a presidential executive order Thursday that declared such settler violence a national emergency and authorized sanctions on foreign actors engaged in destabilizing violent action in the West Bank. "High levels of extremist settler violence, forced displacement of people and villages, and property destruction has reached intolerable levels and constitutes a serious threat to the peace, security, and stability of the West Bank and Gaza, Israel, and the broader Middle East," the E.O. said. "These actions undermine the foreign policy objectives of the United States, including the viability of a two-state solution and ensuring Israelis and Palestinians can attain equal measures of security, prosperity, and freedom." The agency advised institutions to be wary of payments to organizations or groups — including nonprofits — linked to violent extremist groups in the West Bank or which specifically list leaders or affiliates of Israeli violent extremists. The agency also notes that any references within transactions — such as in a memo field — expressing support for such groups could indicate suspicious activity. In addition, Fincen noted firms should watch for transactions that include rapid movement of funds with no apparent lawful economic or business purpose linked to nonprofits known for supporting settler violence — particularly those who have advocated for or solicited donations to that end on social platforms. They also indicated firms should scrutinize any purchases of military gear destined for non-government Israeli parties in the West Bank.
Vast Bank in Oklahoma exits the crypto market -- Vast Bank in Tulsa, Oklahoma, which has been offering its customers the ability to buy cryptocurrency through partnerships with the digital exchange Coinbase and German software company SAP since February 2021, has decided to shutter its crypto operations.The $1 billion-asset bank announced this week that it was disabling and removing the Vast Crypto Mobile Banking platform from both Apple and Google app stores effective Jan. 31, at which time all assets were liquidated and accounts closed. Customers who had money remaining in their accounts will have a cashier's check mailed to the address on file with the bank.The shift comes in the wake of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency's consent order signed by Vast in October of last year, which held that the bank "engaged in unsafe or unsound practices, including those related to capital, capital and strategic planning, liquidity risk management" and other areas. "That order is directed towards our crypto-currency play." Tom Biolchini, chief executive of Vast Bank, said in a local news story. "Vast Bank has made the strategic decision to exit it. … You have to separate cryptocurrency from the community banking that is Vast Bank." As part of the conditions of settling the OCC's prior cease-and-desist actions, the bank was required to draft new frameworks for managing capital, liquidity risk, interest rate risk, custody and more within 60 days of the order. These plans require the approval by the director of the OCC's Special Supervision Division before being put into action. Additional requirements include meeting and maintaining a total capital ratio of at least 13% as well as a leverage ratio of 10% or higher within that same period of time. As of Jan. 30, Vast reported a total capital ratio of 4.8% and a leverage ratio of 2.5% according to data from the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council.
One man's cynical crusade to follow the crypto money | American Banker --Bloomberg journalist Zeke Faux set out on an oracle-like mission to chronicle the phenomenon of crypto in 2021, around the time bitcoin and ethereum values were at all-time highs. An investigation that began rooted in cynicism and a decade of writing about scams turned into "Number Go Up," a feat that offers readers an accessible, entertaining, infuriating account of crypto's "wild rise and staggering fall.""Number Go Up" is a crash course into the wild world of crypto that covers a lot of ground, both topically and geographically. Faux, a self-described "Brooklyn dad with a minivan," trekked across four continents on a two-year journey, landing in places like a yacht party in the Bahamas, a shaved ice cart in El Salvador and an art exhibit in Switzerland.Faux originally hypothesizes that Tether, a crypto company behind an eponymous stablecoin and the backing for much of the crypto world, is fraudulent. Admittedly, Faux doesn't exactly prove it in the book, but "Number Go Up" works hard to tell a clear story about how $2 trillion dollars in the broader crypto industry went poof, and who was responsible. In 2022, prices of cryptocurrencies plummeted as exchanges went bankrupt, investments disappeared and one of the biggest players in the game, FTX, was shown to be fraudulent.The magnetism of the book comes from Faux's meticulous descriptions of near-fiction-like encounters and his reactions to them. In a 2021 interview with Alex Mashinsky, the then-CEO of Celsius Network, about the crypto company's business model and its investment in stablecoins, Faux's mounting skepticism bores through as he writes of "trying to keep a straight face." Celsius claimed users could park their crypto at the company and earn high interest rates, even when most savings accounts' rates were near zero.Faux asked Mashinsky if his claims were too good to be true. "'Somebody is lying,' Mashinsky said. 'Either the bank is lying or Celsius is lying.'"I was pretty sure I knew who was lying, and it wasn't J.P. Morgan," Faux writes. Celsius collapsed a year later, in July 2022.Personally, I've found that when concepts I'm reporting on aren't making sense, it's usually due to one of two potential explanations. The first, and far more frequent, is there's a key component that I'm missing. It's hard to understand calculus without knowing algebra, for example.The second, less-common possibility is that something isn't making sense because it fundamentally doesn't make sense.Faux consistently leads readers to the "this fundamentally doesn't make sense" camp, even when he finds himself literally at sea among crypto "bros" and seemingly everyone is making money on digital currencies. When describing the crypto crash in 2022, he writes, "If you're having trouble following this, that's actually a good sign about your investing instincts."Despite Faux's overall strong intuition about the fraudulent nature of some crypto businesses, Sam Bankman-Fried, the former CEO of FTX who was found guilty for overseeing the most notorious crypto scheme in history, didn't raise any of the journalist's alarms. In fact, "Number Go Up" includes several scenes where the author asks Bankman-Fried for help, advice or perspective. At one point, Bankman-Fried is presumably empathetically explaining that Faux's theory about stablecoins being fraudulent is false. The then-FTX CEO said: "'It's like the narrative would be way sexier if it was like, 'Holy shit, this is the world's biggest Ponzi scheme,' right?'"A chunk of "Number Go Up" recounts Faux's experiences at FTX's Bahamas headquarters, where he saw Bankman-Fried sleep on a beanbag and play a video game while fielding questions from the Economic Club of New York. Bankman-Fried's willingness to answer questions is refreshing, possibly in part because of the irony of his fate. (He was convicted of fraud in November and faces decades in prison. His sentencing is scheduled for March.)But not all the storylines in "Number Goes Up" have a resolution tied up with a bow. Tether, the company that spurred Faux's investigation, has "stayed alive." In a response to an interview request from Faux, Tether executive Giancarlo Devasini wrote, "'Bees don't waste their time explaining to flies that honey is better than shit.'"
The Fed Has a Dirty Little Secret: It’s Been Allowing the Wall Street Mega Banks to Calculate their Own Capital Requirements --By Pam and Russ Martens: On July 27 of last year, the Vice Chair for Supervision at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Michael Barr, made the following statement as part of the proposed new capital requirements for mega banks in the U.S. – revealing the stunning news that the serially-charged mega banks on Wall Street have been allowed to use their own internal risk models to tell the Fed how much risk-weighted assets they have and, thus, how much capital they need to hold. Barr stated:“For a firm’s lending activities, the proposed rules would end the practice of relying on a bank’s own individual estimates of their own risk and instead use a standardized, but risk-based measure of credit risk. Standardized credit risk approaches do a reasonably good job of approximating risks, while internal models are prone to underestimate such risks.“Second, for a firm’s trading activities, the proposed rules would adjust the way that the firm is required to measure market risk, which is the risk of loss from movements in market prices. These changes are intended to correct for gaps in the current rules.” Relying on the mega banks that have been regularly charged with criminal acts and manipulating markets and who brought the U.S. economy to its knees with their financial crash of 2008, because their risk models were as helpful as a row boat in a tsunami, is yet one more clear indication that federal banking regulators have been completely captured by the Wall Street mega banks.According to the Fed, the newly proposed capital rules will not stop federal regulators from relying on the mega banks to provide the information that sets their capital requirements, it will just change the models. The Fed and its fellow bank regulatorswrote as follows about their so-called Basel III reforms:“Under the proposed expanded risk-based approach, banking organizations would calculate total risk-weighted assets using (1) a new standardized approach for credit risk; (2) the revised approach for credit valuation adjustment (CVA) risk; (3) a new standardized approach for operational risk; and (4) the revised approach to market risk.” Two economists are now calling out this insanity in a new academic paper. Anat Admati is the Professor of Finance and Economics at Stanford Graduate School of Business. Martin Hellwig is a German economist. The two are co-authors of the newly released and expanded book The Bankers’ New Clothes: What’s Wrong with Banking and What to Do about It. To call attention to the lies that bankers and their lobbyists perpetuate to get watered-down or gutted rules from their regulators, Admati and Hellwig havereleased a paper debunking the 44 flawed claims that bankers have been getting away with. One of those flawed claims goes to the heart of this debate on required capital. The pair write: “Proper measurement of the risks to which a bank is exposed would have to consider the counterparty credit risks and their correlations with the underlying risks of the banks. The scope for doing so is limited by a lack of data and by the never-ending changes in risks and correlations that occur when counterparties change their own positions. In practice, the use of risk weights in bank regulation allows banks to be extremely highly indebted, masks important risks, and adds to the interconnectedness of the system. Whereas proponents of the system argue that it is important to require banks to have more equity funding when their assets are riskier, in fact the system allows banks to get away with much less equity funding when they say that their assets are less risky. A uniform ratio of required equity [equity capital] to total assets would provide a lower bound on the banks’ leverage and would enable supervisors to intervene when the ratio is breached before it may be too late. By contrast, because some risk weights are (near) zero, the risk-weighting system allows very high leverage.What the Fed and its fellow federal regulators have been effectively doing is turning capital requirements over to the casino. Consider what happened when the 158-year old Lehman Brothers failed in 2008 and filed for bankruptcy. Just five days before Lehman failed, it was sporting a capital ratio of 11 percent, suggesting that it was adequately capitalized. But four weeks after its bankruptcy on September 15, 2008, its debt was valued at only 9 cents on the dollar, suggesting its unsecured creditors were going to lose 91 percent of their money. While the recovery rate improved over time as market values stabilized, there is no question that Lehman’s regulators were in the dark – or chose to be in the dark – about just how highly leveraged this financial institution was in 2008.
As banks mull buybacks, the fate of Basel III looms large -Large and regional U.S. banks are taking a mixed-bag approach to share repurchases and dividend payments amid uncertainty about proposed new capital rules, which could limit their ability to return money to shareholders but also seem likely to be softened.Some of the banks, including JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup, plan to buy back stock at moderate levels this year. Some say they expect to repurchase shares, but they have not yet committed to a specific number. Others are planning to stay on the sidelines, at least for now, as the industry awaits clarity on the so-called Basel III endgame capital reforms, which have sparked one of the most intense battles in years between banks and their regulators.And while most banks haven't changed their dividends strategy, New York Community Bancorp said Wednesday that it will cut its common share dividend from 17 cents to five cents, a move executives say is designed to help the Long Island-based company boost its capital levels and meet regulatory requirements as a larger bank.Huntington Bancshares in Columbus, Ohio, is one of the banks choosing to defer buybacks as it seeks to increase its capital levels. The $188-billion asset company aims to boost its adjusted common equity Tier 1 ratio to somewhere between 9% and 10%, up from 8.6% in the fourth quarter."We are building capital as if the proposed regulations go forward," Chairman and CEO Steve Steinour said in an interview. "We believe that we should be in a strong position and the consequence of that is … we'll defer buybacks until we achieve performance at those levels."For many banks, the past four years have resulted in a stop-and-go-and-stop-again approach to share buybacks. In the early days of the pandemic, when the economic impact of the health crisis was uncertain, banks put a hard stop to their buyback programs. Some of them also cut their dividend payments in favor of reserving capital for potential losses.As concerns about the impact of the pandemic on the financial system eased, the Federal Reserve lifted a moratorium on buybacks, leading some banks that were flush with excess capital to quickly repurchase stock.Though most banks kept paying dividends in 2022, they pulled back once again on buybacks — a result of higher capital requirements, sharply rising interest rates and more economic uncertainty.Then, a year ago, several banks said they would revisit their share buyback programs and step up shareholder payouts, citing a buildup of capital and a slowdown of interest rate hikes. The arrival of the Basel III endgame rules, which were proposed in July, put a damper on some of those programs. The framework would impose higher capital requirements on U.S. banks with at least $100 billion of assets. The phase-in period would be three years, starting on July 1, 2025.
JPMorgan Chase Has Used the Same Auditor for 58 Years, Despite Giant Frauds at the Bank in the Last Nine Years -- By Pam and Russ Martens - While many other countries mandate that publicly-traded companies rotate their audit firms after a maximum number of years, there is no such requirement in the United States at the present time.The 10-K (annual report) that JPMorgan Chase filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on February 21, 2023 carried this statement under the auditor’s name of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (PwC): “We have served as the Firm’s auditor since 1965.”Let that settle in for a few moments as we take a quick tour through the last 10 years of JPMorgan Chase’s history under the same Chairman and CEO, Jamie Dimon, and the same audit firm.In 2013, after the U.S. Senate’s Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations found that JPMorgan Chase had lied to its regulators while gambling in derivatives in London using depositors’ money from its federally-insured bank and losing $6.2 billion, the bank kept the same audit firm. After the bank admitted to two felony counts in 2014 for money laundering involving the largest Ponzi scheme in U.S. history (Bernie Madoff), it kept the same audit firm. In 2016, after the Hong Kong subsidiary of the bank admitted to bribing Chinese government officials with jobs for their unqualified relatives in exchange for business deals, the bank kept the same audit firm.In 2021, Shaquala Williams, an attorney and financial crimes compliance professional with more than a decade of experience at multiple global banks, charged in a federal lawsuit that JPMorgan Chase was keeping two sets of books and brazenly flouting the non-prosecution agreement it had signed with the Justice Department in the Chinese bribery case. It was revealed during her deposition testimony, which became part of the court record, that one of the people being paid under her allegation of the bank keeping two sets of books was Tony Blair, the former Prime Minister of the U.K. (See our report: JPMorgan Whistleblower Names Former U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair in Court Documents as Receiving “Emergency” Payments from Bank.) The case was quietly settled for an undisclosed sum and the Board of Directors of JPMorgan Chase kept Dimon at the helm along with the same audit firm.Just last year, the Attorney General of the U.S. Virgin Islands charged in a federal lawsuit that JPMorgan Chase had not only facilitated the sex trafficking of underage girls by Jeffrey Epstein but that the bank “actively participated in Epstein’s sex-trafficking venture from 2006 until 2019.” A Memorandum of Law arguing for partial summary judgment in the case, made the following points:“Even if participation requires active engagement…there is no genuine dispute that JPMorgan actively participated in Epstein’s sex-trafficking venture from 2006 until 2019. The Court found allegations that the Bank allowed Epstein to use its accounts to send dozens of payments to then-known co-conspirators [redacted] provided excessive and unusual amounts of cash to Epstein; and structured cash withdrawals so that those withdrawals would not appear suspicious ‘went well beyond merely providing their usual [banking] services to Jeffrey Epstein and his affiliated entities’ and were sufficient to allege active engagement.”According to the U.S. Virgin Islands, the amount of hard cash that the bank funneled to Epstein tallied up to more than $5 million, without the bank filing the legally-mandated Suspicious Activity Reports – the same reports it was legally-mandated to file in the Madoff matter but didn’t.JPMorgan Chase settled the U.S. Virgin Islands’ case against it for $75 million, while settling a related federal lawsuit brought by victims of Epstein’s sex trafficking and sexual assaults for $290 million; $365 million is a lot of money to pay if you’re innocent of the charges.Even after JPMorgan Chase’s ties to Epstein’s sex-trafficking made scandalous headlines around the world, the Board of Directors kept the same audit firm and the same Chairman and CEO, Jamie Dimon. In fact, the Board bumped up Dimon’s pay for last year to $36 million from $34.5 million in 2022.
FDIC 'dismantled' tech office, GOP lawmakers say — Top Republicans on the House Financial Services Committee are preparing to send a letter to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. questioning the agency's changes to an office of "innovation," according to a draft of a letter first obtained by American Banker. In the last year, the FDIC has overhauled the "FDITech" office, originally established in 2019 under former Chairman Jelena McWilliams to foster a more welcoming environment for banks to adopt financial technology changes. According to a September report from the Government Accountability Office, the FDIC eliminated the portion of the office's mission focused on fostering innovation in January 2023, and now focuses the office on adopting technologies within the FDIC. The office was reorganized as a branch within the agency's Division of Information Technology, and it no longer focuses on external competition or innovation within the financial sector, the GAO report said. GOP leaders on the House Financial Services Committee said they are concerned about the direction that the FDIC is taking on innovation, as evidenced by the changes to the innovation office.In a letter that the lawmakers intend to send on Friday, House Financial Services Committee Chair Patrick McHenry of North Carolina, Subcommittee on Financial Institutions and Monetary Policy Chair Andy Barr of Kentucky and Subcommittee on Digital Assets, Financial Technology and Inclusion Chair French Hill of Arkansas said that the FDIC under the Biden administration, has "moved innovation backwards." "We are also concerned that there is no publicly available information detailing how the FDIC's posture on innovation will manifest in examinations," the lawmakers said. The Republicans said that the agency "has a troubling history of using extralegal pressures to attain anti-business results."
Massachusetts Wakes Up to a Hospital Nightmare - Erstwhile Boston media darling Steward Health Care has been strip-mining hospitals for a decade now. The power elite may finally be paying attention. by Maureen Tkacik - The group of fresh medical school grads knew something wasn’t right with Steward Health Care when they showed up in Dorchester, Massachusetts to start their residencies in Carney Hospital’s inaugural family medicine residency class during the summer of 2014 and learned the president who had recruited them had already been fired. Soon afterward, a Steward administrator admitted the new family medicine clinic and the pediatric ward they had toured on their recruitment visit were never actually opening, and that the nearby hospital at which residents were supposed to learn how to deliver babies was being shuttered entirely. Shortly after that, they showed up to work to learn their program director had been fired. Ultimately, the residents decided to call the graduate medical accreditation agency and get the program shut down. “It was all smoke and mirrors...they had no intention of giving us any of the resources we needed to learn what we needed to learn or do a good job,” remembers a preventative medicine physician and former Carney medical resident, recalling an afternoon when a patient had a heart attack and she had to Google “how to operate an EKG machine” because she could not find a single nurse or technician in the building to help her. In 2011, they promised the urologists of Brockton they were building a prostate cancer “center of excellence” at Good Samaritan Hospital: That never happened, though Steward apparently upgraded the ICU’s wiring, which we know because they allegedly skipped out on paying the contractor who did the job. In 2017, Steward told the government of Malta that it would turn the Mediterranean micro-state’s three aging hospitals into a hub for medical tourism, but instead they spent the 400 million euros they got for the job on … a lot of lawyers; an appeals court judge last fall called the contract a “simulation” designed “to draft contracts intended not to deliver quality medical service, but other things.” And in 2019, Steward promised the community of West Monroe, Louisiana, that Glenwood Regional Medical Center would become a leader in a “groundbreaking” new form of cardiac surgery; last fall, the state health department threatened to shut down the hospital after an inspection revealed it was so behind on its water, sewer, and utility bills its hot water had been cut off. State Rep. Mike Echols, who represents northern Louisiana and used to operate a large physician practice in the state, described Steward to the Prospect as “one of those corporate terrorists who come in and loot the ship and drain it dry.” Indeed. Yesterday, Steward announced it would be closing a hospital it owns in Texas at 7 a.m. next Friday. Its New England Sinai Hospital is shutting soon after that. The company has hired the restructuring adviser AlixPartners, which is often a precursor to a Chapter 11 filing. Physicians say that few of its 30-some hospitals are in shape to survive. Carney Hospital has long been nicknamed “Carnage,” and a group of Steward hospitals formerly named Wuesthoff Health System are still widely known within their northeastern Florida community as “Worst Off.” For ten years, the hospital chain, which originated as an agglomeration of nun-operated Boston-area neighborhood hospitals known as Caritas Christi, was owned by the private equity firm Cerberus, which extracted more than $800 million in excess of its investment out of the hospitals, then left during the pandemic. Company founder de la Torre was left to “finish the job,” which took more than three years because de la Torre, despite his penchant for mega-yachts and private jets, kept getting new bailouts from an Alabama real estate investment trust called Medical Properties Trust. Last year, MPT finally started to run out of cash—in part because most of its other tenants were not a whole lot more solvent than Steward—and the Justice Department sued Steward for violating the Stark Law against physician kickbacks, the flouting of which appears in hindsight to have been the entire underlying premise of Steward’s business model, back when he pretended to have one. As it stands, the company hasn’t had so much as a chief financial officer in more than a year, though its president identified himself as the company’s CFO in a court filing in October. Indeed, the mystery here is not “how Steward got in this situation” but what in God’s name took the state of Elizabeth Warren and Maura Healey so long to notice the brazenness at work in their proverbial backyard.
Ransomware attack forces hospitals in multiple states to divert some emergency room patients -Hospitals in multiple states have been diverting patients from their emergency rooms due to a recent cyberattack on a major health system. Ardent Health Services, a company that owns hospitals in six states, said Monday that it had been victimized by a cyber event on Thanksgiving that turned out to be a ransomware attack. “As a result, Ardent proactively took its network offline, suspending all user access to its information technology applications, including corporate servers, Epic software, internet and clinical programs,” Ardent said in a Monday statement. Ardent in the statement said that out of “an abundance of caution,” its hospitals were rescheduling “some non-emergent, elective procedures and diverting some emergency room patients to other area hospitals until systems are back online.” According to NBC News, Ardent said the attack occurred in states including Oklahoma, Texas and New Mexico. NBC reported that spokespeople at three Ardent-owned hospital chains told their reporters that some emergency rooms were being diverted as Ardent dealt with the cyberattack. Ardent in its statement said its patient care, however, continues to be delivered “safely and effectively.” “In the interim, while this incident results in temporary disruption to certain aspects of Ardent’s clinical and financial operations, patient care continues to be delivered safely and effectively in its hospitals, emergency rooms, and clinics,” Ardent said in its Monday statement. Ardent said it “cannot confirm the extent of any patient health or financial data that has been compromised.” “The investigation and restoration of access to electronic medical records and other clinical systems is ongoing,” the Ardent statement read. “Ardent is still determining the full impact of this event and it is too soon to know how long this will take or what data may be involved in this incident.” In a statement emailed to The Hill, Ardent said each of its hospitals “will continue to evaluate” their “ability to safely care for critically ill patients” in their Emergency Rooms. “Because this is rapidly changing and dependent upon a number of factors, we will continue to update our status as the situation changes,” the emailed statement read. “All hospitals continue to provide a medical screening exam and stabilizing care to any patients arriving at our Emergency Departments.”
BankThink: Earned wage access and advances on pay are very different products | American Banker --A multibillion-dollar Earned Wage Access (EWA) industry has developed over the past decade to enable workers to obtain, on demand, pay they have already earned. In parallel, a handful of personal finance fintechs have created what they consider to be a similar offering, a direct-to-consumer (D2C) advance product, delivering advances based on checking account data, marketed directly to end users. Now, regulators, policymakers and industry and consumer advocates are debating whether these arrangements constitute "credit" under state and federal consumer protection laws.If we really want to protect consumers, we need to understand each product's impact on consumers' financial health. That requires asking a quite different set of questions — and thinking beyond traditional regulatory frameworks that have, in some cases, been eclipsed by technological innovation.If families had sufficient income to cover their regular expenses and savings to fall back on in the event of an unexpected expense, biweekly pay — which is the most common mode of payment — could be a useful budgeting tool to help families manage their expenses.The reality, of course, is far from this rosy picture.According to the Financial Health Pulse 2023 U.S. Trends Report, 17% of individuals — and over a third of those with household incomes under $30,000 — are financially vulnerable, meaning that they are struggling with most or all aspects of their financial lives. Of those households, 60% report that their household expenses exceed their income, 69% report that they have more debt than is manageable and only 9% have three or more months of liquid savings.What's more, over the last 40 years, real wages of low-income workers have actually declined. Following the pandemic, facing worker shortages and renewed worker power, many of the nation's largest employers did raise hourly wages. But as the economy cools, some have also begun to lower them again.It is not surprising, then, that many families cannot consistently make it to the next paycheck without a cash infusion. Indeed, the FinHealth Spend Report 2023 found that, in workplaces in which EWA is offered, upwards of 40% of workers turn to it for liquidity. And, according to a recentGAO report, these users are overwhelmingly low-wage workers.EWA products and D2C advances are both designed to provide short-term liquidity to consumers, but they differ in some fundamental respects.EWA providers leverage technology to access payroll data, calculate an employee's earnings since the start of a pay period and provide the employee with access to some, or in some cases all, of those already-earned wages, with a corresponding reduction in the amount of the employee's next paycheck.In contrast, fintechs that offer D2C advances analyze transactional data from consumer checking accounts to forecast a consumer's income over a pay period and determine the advance amount subject to a stated maximum. Repayment occurs through an electronic debit of the consumer's bank account, timed to coincide with the expected date of deposit of her next paycheck.There are also cost differences between the two products. Both EWA and D2C advance providers generally provide no-cost access to those willing to wait a day or two to receive funds through the ACH network. But for consumers seeking immediate access — which is, after all, the rationale for these products — both EWA and D2C advance providers generally charge an "express delivery" fee.
New CSBS chief warns Washington against sidelining state agencies -- Brandon Milhorn took little time in making his opinion heard as the new president and CEO of the Conference of State Bank Supervisors on at least one hot-button issue. He recently added his voice to the growing chorus of criticism surrounding the Basel III capital framework proposed by the Federal Reserve, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. — Milhorn's former employer. Milhorn served as a senior aide to Vice Chairman Travis Hill, and as chief operating officer and chief of staff for former Chairman Jelena McWilliams. He is familiar with the thinking inside federal bank regulatory agencies. Still, in a speech last month before the American Bar Association's Banking Law Committee — his first since taking the reins at CSBS — Milhorn claimed their Basel proposal would "apply uniform capital requirements across an overly broad range of banks," contravening federal law, which mandates that regulation be tailored to institutions' complexity, size and risk profile. Basel III, which is aimed at institutions with $100 billion of assets or more, would increase capital requirements by 16% per some estimates. That could push banks at the Basel spectrum's smaller end toward consolidation, resulting in a more top heavy, less competitive sector, Milhorn said. The so-called Basel III endgame proposal "is an unfortunate example of the bias federal regulators have toward standardization, and one that will have real-world consequences for credit availability and economic activity," Milhorn said during the speech. Milhorn's critique of federal banking agencies extends beyond Basel III. He also cited the proposed governance guidelines FDIC unveiled in October as another prime example of overreach, coming as it does in an area where state rules have traditionally predominated. "Our members are concerned with this ill-advised proposal that intrudes on over a century of precedent and carefully calibrated duties established in each state," Milhorn said. An FDIC spokesman declined to comment on Milhorn's American Bar Association speech. The address added heft to the massive and, in many cases, unlikely alliance that has coalesced around criticism of Basel III, including banking trade groups and civil rights and consumer advocates. It also represented Milhorn's first foray into the limelight as CSBS CEO, a role he assumed in December.
Are credit-linked notes a good way for regional banks to offload risk? - Regional banks are turning to a new tool to unlock space on their balance sheets and offload some credit risk to nonbank investors.The instruments, called credit-linked notes or synthetic risk transfers, are becoming more popular as regulators attempt to toughen capital requirements on big lenders in the wake of the banking crisis last spring.With CLNs, banks bundle up chunks of their loans to auto borrowers, corporations or other bank clients and issue "notes" to investors that are linked to the credit performance of those loans. By transferring some of the risk of borrowers defaulting to investors, banks reduce their exposure to default risk and thus can hold a smaller cushion to guard against it.Banks that have entered into billions of dollars of CLN transactions recently include U.S. Bancorp in Minneapolis, Huntington Bancshares in Columbus, Ohio, and Santander Holdings USA, the U.S. subsidiary of the Spanish banking giant Banco Santander. Lawyers and advisors who work on CLNs say more such deals are set to follow, thanks to bank regulators' signing off on the arrangements."I don't think this is going away. You're going to see more and more of this," said Greg Hertrich of the Japanese bank Nomura, who advises U.S. banks on their balance-sheet strategies.CLNs are a "very natural evolution" in banks' efforts to ensure they're allocating their capital in the most efficient way possible, Hertrich said. CLNs are similar to the credit-default swaps that banks have long used, though they are safer in that banks get money from investors upfront, eliminating the "counterparty" risk of an investor that doesn't pay up.Their popularity has gotten the attention of Capitol Hill, where Sen. Jack Reed, a Democrat from Rhode Island, has asked bank regulators to scrutinize potential risks. The deals shift risk outside the highly regulated banking system onto less regulated nonbank investors, though some industry observers note that trend is a consequence of tougher bank regulations. Rules for banks are set to get even tougher under a package of proposals that the Federal Reserve and other regulators have rolled out. The industry has conducted an all-out assault on the proposed rules, which would lead to a sizable increase in the capital cushions banks are required to hold to guard against losses from defaulted loans. Bankers say such a large increase is unwarranted and would prompt them to cut back on lending, though regulators say it would make them safer.But the growth in CLNs also comes as losses on loans, ranging from credit cards to business loans, are ticking up and eating away at banks' capital. CLNs give banks a way to shed some risk and increase their capital levels, putting them in a better position to absorb losses. Still, cautioned Warren Kornfeld of the ratings firm Moody's Investors Service, CLNs don't offer the wide-ranging protections afforded by plain-old capital. He argued equity from shareholders can cover any kinds of losses, ranging from losses on loans to operational losses, which can stem from supervisory actions by regulators, cyberattacks or other unforeseen issues."The bank would be far stronger by issuing equity. Equity covers all losses," Kornfeld said.
Smaller regionals brush off commercial real estate worries - As investors fret about how a downturn in commercial real estate could hurt the U.S. banking sector, several small and midsize lenders with substantial exposure to CRE say not to worry. Banks whose commercial real estate portfolios have come under the microscope include Cullen/Frost Bankers in San Antonio, Florida-based BankUnited, Bank OZK in Arkansas, Seattle-based WaFd Inc. and Brookline Bancorp in Boston. At all five of those banks, which range in size from roughly $10 billion-$50 billion of assets, executives sought during recent earnings calls to reassure analysts about their commercial real estate books, even as high interest rates and remote work stamp the sector with question marks. The executives' efforts were generally successful. The share prices of all five banks have risen over the last five trading days — though some increased only slightly. The largest of the bunch, the $49 billion-asset Cullen/Frost, reported a rise in charge-offs during the fourth quarter. But CEO Phil Green said Thursday that commercial real estate loans, which make up 36% of the bank's $18.8 billion book, weren't the source. "We saw an increase in problem loans this quarter," he said during the company's earnings call, "but it really wasn't from commercial real estate at all." Nearly half of the Texas bank's CRE transactions are classified as investor real estate — a category that includes office, multifamily and industrial properties — while the rest are mostly owner-operated properties. The biggest exposure risk on paper relates to multifamily construction, rather than office properties, which have been a sore spot for the industry, Green said in an interview. He said that Cullen/Frost, the holding company for Frost Bank, actually had three paydowns of office properties that totaled $95 million. During the fourth quarter at Cullen/Frost, credit quality remained above historical levels, but charge-offs still rose year over year to $11 million from $3.8 million. Green said he expects further normalization in 2024. Cullen/Frost is hitching its wagon to the relationships it has built with borrowers, as well as the underwriting decisions it has made, Green said in the interview, which occurred after the company's fourth-quarter earnings call. "The reason I don't worry about that is because of the types of properties, the locations, the quality of the projects and, most importantly, the quality of the relationships that we have," Green said. "It's not something I'm really worried about. The reason is not because of anything we're doing now. You can't do very much now. It's about what you've done over the last few years as you develop your portfolio." Analysts at Wedbush Securities, which have a neutral rating on Cullen/Frost's stock, wrote in a research note that positive signs for the company include an elevated level of loan loss reserves. While Cullen/Frost's stock price fell by 1.8% on Friday, it was still up by 0.4% for the week. At Miami Lakes, Florida-based BankUnited, Chairman and CEO Rajinder Singh said Friday that the level of nonperforming loans, including CRE loans, is so low "it will be harder to drive them down further." Fourth-quarter net charge-offs were just 0.09% of average loans, which beat analysts' expectations. Some credit normalization appears headed BankUnited's way, but the trend will start off a very low base. While criticized commercial loans rose by 15% quarter over quarter to $1.14 billion, nonperforming loans declined by $10 million during the three months ending Dec. 31, finishing last year at 0.52% of total loans. "Overall on credit," Singh said during the company's quarterly earnings call, "I'm sleeping very well at night." BankUnited's office building loans are anchored in growing South Florida markets, as well as in Manhattan. In its Manhattan portfolio, the $35.8 billion-asset company is reporting a 96% occupancy rate. "We don't see much in the way of loss content," Chief Operating Officer Tom Cornish said on the conference call. Shares in BankUnited fell by 0.6% on Friday, but were up 0.5% for the week. Similar to Bank United, the $11.4 billion-asset Brookline Bancorp reported linked-quarter declines in both total and CRE nonperforming loans. The latter category ended 2023 at $19.6 million, down 7% from Sept. 30. Net charge-offs of $7.1 million amounted to an annualized 0.30% of total loans, down from 0.47% on September 30. Laurie Havener Hunsicker, an analyst who covers Brookline for Seaport Research Partners, raised her price target for the company's shares by $2 to $14, largely on the strength of its credit quality performance. "Credit costs continue to normalize, but have been better than our expectations," Hunsicker wrote Friday in a research note. Shares in Brookline, which reported its quarterly earnings on Wednesday, were up 5.5% this week. At Bank OZK in Little Rock, Arkansas, nonperforming loans totaled $61 million, or 0.23% of total non-purchased loans on Dec. 31. Bank OZK's national CRE lending unit reported full-year net charge-offs of $5 million, amounting to three basis points of its $16.9 billion portfolio. Credit quality at the $34.2 billion-asset bank is "relatively benign and limited to a handful of transactions," Chairman and CEO George Gleason said during a Jan. 19 earnings call.
BankThink: FHFA's Home Loan bank report is a policy unicorn. Don't let it escape. | American Banker -- The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) recently released its much-anticipated review of the Federal Home Loan Bank System, and it was worth the wait. The report, FHLB System at 100: Focusing on the Future, speaks to one of the most urgent problems in this country: affordable housing, especially for low- and moderate-income families. The average rent for an American has increased by 22% and the average home price has climbed by a whopping 46% since late 2019. Both the dream of first-time homeownership and the reality of monthly rent are increasingly unattainable for many young families. As the nationwide housing crisis escalates, the inadequacies of today's Home Loan Bank System — designed during the Great Depression to make home ownership achievable to more Americans — become even more glaring. It's time for a change.The FHFA report offers over 50 specific recommendations to address the system's shortfalls and is worth serious consideration.But there's another reason to act on this report: It's a policy unicorn. It's that rare thing you never see in the nation's capital anymore — a balanced plan on a complex issue that could have lasting impact on a difficult problem with broad public support and no impact on federal spending or taxes.As the CEO of IFF, one of the first Community Development Financial Institutions to join the Home Loan Bank System in 2010 after Congress opened the doors to us through legislation, I am both a booster and reformer of the system. I know firsthand how the Home Loan banks' liquidity can get more capital into communities. But I have also seen CDFIs struggle to access liquidity through opaque, inconsistent and unreasonable collateral requirements.As the chair of the CDFI-FHLB Working Group, I lead a coalition of 35 non-depository Home Loan bank-member CDFIs working for better access to capital for affordable housing and community development projects. We are active shareholding members of the Home Loan banks — with a stake in the system's success — but also mission-driven financial institutions deeply committed to building thriving and more equitable communities, not simply to maximizing shareholder profits.The report delineates a clear path for the FHFA, the Home Loan banks and member CDFIs to collaborate, using the system's tools and resources in service to our nation's communities. Rather than get stuck on a few hot-button issues, we see an opportunity to build upon the constructive conversations that led up to the report.Without a clear imperative for how the system should meet its mission, all other recommendations are meaningless. The system presently views its primary mission as providing liquidity to its private institutional members. But the FHFA's report clearly states that this liquidity must be in service to a public purpose like affordable housing and economic development, not simply private speculation like cryptocurrency investments. For the Home Loan Bank System to work for everyone, we must clarify its mission and how to measure it. The old business adage "what gets measured gets done" holds true here. Another key recommendation is for the Home Loan banks to voluntarily increase their Affordable Housing Program (AHP) contributions to at least 20% of their prior year's net earnings, up from the statutorily required minimum of 10%. The FHFA report makes clear that the Federal Home Loan banks retain substantially more earnings and, thus, could easily contribute more for the benefit of communities. That's the least they can do in exchange for their tax exemption, which allows them to pay hefty dividends to their members. No legislation is needed for this increase, and the Home Loan banks and the CEOs of our nation's largest banks have already agreed to an increase to 15%.Home Loan banks still struggle to understand and fairly treat CDFIs' collateral. To address this, the FHFA report recommends the creation of mission-oriented collateral programs, allowing CDFIs to pledge collateral with a strong connection to the system's public mission. It calls for the banks to expand voluntary and pilot programs, which help increase the production, rehabilitation and preservation of multifamily housing. Private banks have long understood that CDFIs can more effectively deploy capital to disinvested communities and borrowers. They invest hundreds of millions of dollars into CDFIs to meet theirCommunity Reinvestment Act obligations. Home Loan banks should similarly model their partnership with CDFI members. We shouldn't be surprised by the incredible potential of the FHFA's report. Its review process was thorough and transparent, including dozens of public roundtables and listening sessions and hundreds of written comments from a range of stakeholders. The report wasn't assembled in a smoke-filled room in Washington, D.C., but it's not without controversy. Any full-fledged review of the Home Loan Bank System — a complex, cooperative network of government-sponsored financial institutions — was bound to touch on a few sensitive issues.
Senator Sherrod Brown Takes on the Fed's Support of Wealth Stripping the Middle Class By Pam and Russ Martens: -- Wall Street banks extract wealth from the little guy in a multitude of insidious ways – from high interest credit cards to excessive fees, tricked-up mortgages and outright frauds. Nothing better illustrated this wealth stripping than the 2013 PBS program from Frontline called The Retirement Gamble. The program documented the following: If you work for 50 years and receive the typical long-term return of 7 percent on the stock mutual funds in your 401(k) plan, and your fees are 2 percent, almost two-thirds of your account will go to Wall Street. (We fact-checked the math and it’s correct; read our report here..) If an individual attempts to legally challenge being ripped off by Wall Street, they will end up in a private justice system created by Wall Street lawyers and run by a self-regulatory agency. You will not be allowed to take your claim to one of the nation’s courts where juries are randomly selected from a large pool of fellow citizens. You will have limited discovery and the arbitrators of your claim do not have to follow legal precedent or case law. Even when serious financial crimes are committed against our cities and counties, causing mass layoffs and economic suffering to millions, no one will go to jail. Prosecutors will allow Wall Street to pay a fraction of the amount stolen and walk away. After each illegal cartel on Wall Street is exposed, removing any doubt that this is an institutionalized wealth transfer system, new Wall Street cartels crop up faster than you can say “where are the customers yachts.”Add dark pools, high frequency trading, and stock exchange collusion to the 401(k), private justice system and cartel fleecing activity and you have an almost perfect system for wealth transfers with impunity. Many Americans believe that the Federal Reserve (“the Fed”) is the linchpin to Wall Street’s wealth transfer program to the 1 percent. Yesterday, the Chair of the Senate Banking Committee, Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH), raised similar concerns in a hard-hitting letter to Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Brown wrote in part: “…Because monetary policy operates on a lag, keeping interest rates elevated will continue to apply downward pressure on the labor market and wages, and drive up mortgage costs, while doing nothing to tackle the cause of continued high prices. When the Fed justifies higher interest rates for the sake of weakening demand, that is, in effect, a euphemism for suppressing wages and job creation. The burden of attaining price stability should not fall on the backs of workers and home-buyers… “To lower costs for all Americans, we must address inflation’s root causes without undercutting economic growth. Monetary policy does nothing to address the underlying cause of higher prices – namely, corporate price-gouging – but it does undermine economic growth. Higher rates are locking Americans out of the two primary means for building wealth—buying a home and starting or growing a small business… “Higher rates hurt prospective home buyers. I hear from so many Ohioans that they feel trapped – those who rent feel like they’ll never be able to afford to buy and those who already own their homes feel like they will never be able to afford a larger one if they decide to grow their family. Prices have been too high for too long for both renters and homebuyers across the country, and these challenges have only grown more acute as interest rates have stayed elevated. For prospective home buyers, the same mortgage for a home purchased today costs nearly double what it did in 2020. Higher rates have also given corporations an advantage over consumers in the housing market. As consumers face elevated interest rates, many of the biggest real estate investors have access to cheaper Wall Street financing, allowing them to buy up real estate with all-cash offers based on financing costs a working family could never get. As a result, institutional investors – including private equity and S&P 500 companies – are buying up formerly affordable manufactured housing communities and affordable single-family homes in far too many communities. Homeownership is the primary means for working-class and middle-class families to acquire wealth, and higher interest rates are making it harder for them to afford a mortgage to purchase a home, denying them the opportunity to build intergenerational wealth. “Higher interest rates are hindering growth in the housing supply. High interest rates are also contributing to high housing costs by exacerbating our years-long housing shortage as they limit affordable housing providers’ ability to finance new construction at price points that workers can afford. As a result, housing production remains thousands of units behind each year in communities across the country, and renters are forced to pay high prices month after month. In 2022, a record half of renters were paying more than they could afford for housing, pushing their ability to save for a down payment further out of reach. If affordable housing providers remain unable to build new units that these workers can afford, housing costs will only continue to contribute to rising prices. “Higher interest rates stall small business growth. Tightened credit conditions are making it difficult for small businesses to thrive. Keeping the policy rate higher for longer has driven up the cost of credit for small business loans. Today, a small business seeking to take out a loan will pay on average 9.3% in interest. For the small businesses who have already taken out loans, higher rates will increase their interest burden in 2024. Consequently, 9-out-of-10 small businesses think now is not a good time to expand their business. Small businesses employ half of America’s workers and higher rates are discouraging them from both hiring workers and increasing their employees’ wages to keep up with inflation. “For working Americans and small businesses who already feel the crush of inflation, higher housing costs and reduced access to credit will only make it worse. Keeping interest rates high will be detrimental to American workers and their families and do little to bring down prices or promote moderate economic growth. While more must be done to address the fact that costs remain too high, it is becoming increasingly evident that restrictive monetary policy is no longer the right tool for combatting inflation, and I urge the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy early this year.”
Academy Mortgage blamed for dragging its feet on hack alert --Academy Mortgage is accused of slow-walking its effort to inform customers of a data breach that took place in mid-2023, which has made them vulnerable to identity theft.A class action suit filed in the state of Utah by a former borrower alleges Academy lost control of its computer network and of highly sensitive personal information on March 21, 2023, but reported it to customers on Dec. 20, 2023, "an appalling nine months after the data breach occurred."A little over 280,000 customers had their birth dates and Social Security numbers compromised during the breach, a notice filed by Academy to the Office of the Maine Attorney General shows.The plaintiff, Lazaro Stern, blames Academy for failing to train its employees on cybersecurity, neglecting to adequately monitor its agents, contractors, vendors and suppliers handling PII and not maintaining reasonable security safeguards to protect customer data.All of the above rendered the Utah-based mortgage lender an "easy target for cybercriminals," the suit alleges. Academy Mortgage did not immediately respond to a request for comment. BlackCat, also known as Alphv, took credit for the data breach and has threatened to release customer data if a ransom is not paid. It is unclear whether the mortgage lender paid said ransom or if data was ever released to the dark web. International authorities in Decemberseized the ransomware gang's dark web leak internet site. BlackCat has also taken credit for a November attack on Fidelity National Financial. According to Stern's suit filed Jan. 5, Academy's breach notice was unclear about the nature of the cyber attack and the threat it posed, leaving out information regarding why it took so long for the lender to notify customers. The mortgage company's failure to report the incident in a timely manner "made the victims vulnerable to identity theft without any warnings to monitor their financial accounts or credit reports to prevent unauthorized use of their PII," the filing states. In doing so, Academy "violated state law and harmed an unknown number of its current and former consumers" and "betrayed" the trust of customers by not having up-to-date security practices to prevent a cyber attack, Stern's suit said.Academy in a consumer notice mailed Dec. 20 wrote it wiped and rebuilt affected systems and has taken steps to bolster network security. "We are also reviewing and altering our policies, procedures and network security software relating to the security of our systems," it said.The mid-sized mortgage lender boasts over $35 million in annual revenue, according to the suit. Academy is licensed to operate in all 50 states and in Washington D.C.
Planet Home Lending blames hack on vendor vulnerability --Planet Home Lending says a ransomware attack last fall compromised the Social Security numbers of 199,873 customers.The hack exploited vulnerabilities in Planet Home Lending's information security systems purchased from technology firm Citrix Systems, the lender said last week in a notice to the Office of the Maine Attorney General. The breach occurred Nov. 15, 2023, and Planet Home Lending said it discovered the intrusion the same day."Planet was able to determine with reasonable certainty that the threat actor accessed a read-only data folder, in which copies of loan files containing personally identifiable information of some of its customers were stored," the firm said in a consumer notice dated Jan. 24.The personally identifiable information compromised includes customers' names, addresses, SSNs, loan numbers and financial account numbers. The lender said it doesn't anticipate paying a ransom to the culprit in accordance with industry guidance; a ransom demand was not specified. The November hack is unrelated to Planet Home Lending's exposure in a different ransomware gang's vendor breach last June. Neither the company nor an attorney who filed the Maine disclosure responded to requests for comment Monday. The Citrix vulnerability was first discovered in August and the tech firm began releasing software updates in early October, according to the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency. The exploit, known as "Citrix Bleed," allows hackers to bypass multi-factor authentication to hijack user sessions for Citrix's NetScaler ADC and Gateway information security softwares. Planet Home Lending said prolific hackers LockBit were able to bypass its protections, although it didn't disclose further details around its security tools in place both before and after the incident. The company notified the FBI and hired a third-party consultant to perform a risk assessment of its systems. The lender claims there's no evidence of misuse of data and is providing affected consumers 24 months of complimentary credit monitoring and identity theft protection services through Experian's IdentityWorks. It's also offering up to $1 million in identity theft insurance, underwritten by Assurant-operated American Bankers Insurance Company of Florida.Planet Home Lending originated over $950 million in loan volume last year through September, according to data from S&P Global. The Meriden, Connecticut-based company ended last year with 179 sponsored mortgage loan originators, Nationwide Multistate Licensing System data shows, and 35 branches nationwide. The recent disclosure represents yet another major breach on a mortgage player in the past few months, following wide-ranging cyberattacks at Mr. Cooper and Loandepot, among others. Those firms, in required notices to federal entities, however did not provide as many details about the type of incidents they suffered.
Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rate Increased Slightly, Multi-family Unchanged in December -Single-family serious delinquencies increased slightly in December, and multi-family serious delinquencies were unchanged.Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in December was 0.55%, up from 0.54% November. Freddie's rate is down year-over-year from 0.66% in December 2022. This is below the pre-pandemic lows. Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic. Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency increased to 0.55% in December from 0.54% in November. The serious delinquency rate is down from 0.65% in December 2022. This is below the pre-pandemic lows. The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". Mortgages in forbearance are being counted as delinquent in this monthly report but are not reported to the credit bureaus.For Fannie, by vintage, for loans made in 2004 or earlier (1% of portfolio), 1.67% are seriously delinquent (down from 1.70% the previous month). For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (1% of portfolio), 2.53% are seriously delinquent (down from 2.58%).For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2023 (98% of portfolio), 0.47% are seriously delinquent (up from 0.46%). So, Fannie is still working through a handful of poor performing loans from the bubble years.Freddie Mac reports that the multi-family delinquencies rate was unchanged at 0.28% in December, and up from 0.12% in December 2022.This graph shows the Freddie multi-family serious delinquency rate since 2012. Rates were still high in 2012 following the housing bust and financial crisis.The multi-family rate increased following the pandemic and has increased recently as rent growth has slowed, vacancy rates have increased, and borrowing rates have increased sharply. This will be something to watch as more apartments come on the market.Here is a report on loan performance from CoreLogic: CoreLogic: Home Loan Performance Remains Strong and Steady in November CoreLogic®, a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released its monthly Loan Performance Insights Report for November 2023. In November 2023, 2.9% of all mortgages in the U.S. were in some stage of delinquency (30 days or more past due, including those in foreclosure), unchanged from November 2022 and up by 0.1 percentage points from October 2023. To gain a complete view of the mortgage market and loan performance health, CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency. In November 2023, the U.S. delinquency and transition rates and their year-over-year changes, were as follows:
- • Early-Stage Delinquencies (30 to 59 days past due): 1.5%, up from 1.4% in November 2022.
- • Adverse Delinquency (60 to 89 days past due): 0.4%, unchanged from November 2022.
- • Serious Delinquency (90 days or more past due, including loans in foreclosure): 0.9%, down from 1.2% in November 2022 and a high of 4.3% in August 2020.
- • Foreclosure Inventory Rate (the share of mortgages in some stage of the foreclosure process): 0.3%, unchanged from November 2022.
- • Transition Rate (the share of mortgages that transitioned from current to 30 days past due): 0.7%, unchanged from November 2022.
CoreLogic recorded very few upward movements in U.S. mortgage delinquency and foreclosure rates in November — a welcome trend, considering that all major rates remain at or near historic lows. The U.S. serious delinquency rate held at 0.9% for the fourth straight month, although more than 20 states posted numbers above the national average. Still, as noted in a recent CoreLogic analysis, a strong job market is enabling most borrowers with a mortgage to make payments on time, along with forbearance programs that help struggling homeowners temporarily suspend or modify their payment structures. “U.S. job growth continued at a steady pace in the final quarter of 2023, and the unemployment rate ended the year just slightly higher than its 50-year low,” said Molly Boesel, principal economist for CoreLogic. “The robust labor market is contributing to small mortgage delinquency numbers, with the overall delinquency rate remaining low and the serious delinquency rate at a record low. Mortgage performance should remain strong in 2024, as the job market is expected to remain healthy.” A key is to watch early-stage delinquencies (recent borrowers) and that remains low.
Condos growing as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac plan improvements - Condominium and homeowner associations are on track to grow in 2024, adding to a constrained supply of housing, and making financing for units increasingly important.The number is set to increase from 365,000 in 2023 to as much as 370,000 this in 2024, and they account for almost one-third of U.S. home inventory, according to a recent Foundation for Community Association Research study and forecast.Community associations also account for a significant share of the new homes that have become a key part of total for-sale inventory given that many existing owners loath to sell homes that many of them financed at relatively low rates."Approximately 67% of the homes completed in 2023 were in a homeowner's association, condominium or housing co-op. That's a big number," said Dawn Bauman, executive director of the foundation and chief strategy officer at the Community Associations Institute.Community associations new and old now account for around 30% overall housing stock as some jurisdictions cultivate them as a way to take some of the property maintenance the public sector's responsible for in the hands of private entities.But for lenders and investors, financing an association property has some complications compared to a traditional single-family home because underwriting has to account for additional factors like the finances of the building and potential super liens on units with unpaid fees.In addition to that, since the notorious collapse of a Surfside, Fla., condo building, the market's been perhaps rightfully more worried about the soundness of this housing stock as it ages.While the association component of new home construction is considerable, the total sector does also include a significant number of older buildings more than 40 years old, Bauman said.As a result, influential government-related mortgage investors have instituted stricter rules in response to Surfside, first on a temporary basis, and later in a more permanent form some lenders have found to be relatively more practical.Lenders and associations haven't argued with the need for some rule changes following the collapse but have looked for improvement in communication regarding which buildings have issues that bar financing and processes available to remedy such concerns.Those investors, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, have responded with plans to improve transparency for both associations and lenders. Not only is Freddie streamlining processes and is opening up an appeals process for associations, Fannie has plans to "introduce a new online lookup tool for homeowners' associations and their management companies to view project ineligibility information."Fannie's plans, noted briefly in a recent posting of the government-sponsored enterprise's website, are set to come to fruition in the third quarter of this year.While circumstances in this regard may be more copacetic this year, associations and lenders still expect some challenges."Fear of building structural integrity has created this environment where insurance premiums for condo buildings have skyrocketed," Bauman said.
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey - From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey - Mortgage applications decreased 7.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 26, 2024. Last week’s results included an adjustment to account for the MLK holiday. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 7.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 8 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 2 percent from the previous week and was 3 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 11 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 20 percent lower than the same week one year ago. “Mortgage rates changed little last week, with the 30-year fixed rate at 6.78 percent, which is close to where it has been for the past month, but lower than the recent peak of 7.9 percent in October 2023,”. “Applications decreased compared to a holiday-adjusted week, driven by a decline in purchase applications that offset a slight increase in refinance activity. Low existing housing supply is limiting options for prospective buyers and is keeping home-price growth elevated, resulting in a one-two punch that continues to constrain home purchase activity. The average loan size for purchase applications has picked up in recent weeks to $444,100, the largest average loan size since May 2022.” ...The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($726,200 or less) remained unchanged at 6.78 percent, with points increasing to 0.65 from 0.63 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index. According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 20% year-over-year unadjusted. Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly). Purchase application activity is up from the lows in late October and early November, but still close to the lowest levels during the housing bust. The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990. With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index declined sharply in 2022, and even with some recent increases, activity is barely off the bottom.
Our Housing Crisis Is Literally Killing People -Last week, my students and I worked with several unhoused persons who had been recently living in dangerous, unhealthy apartments or homes in our community of Indianapolis. One, a young mother of a toddler with another baby soon on the way, had just left a home where eight people across three generations were living. The house had no central heat, so space heaters were the only source of warmth during a month when the temperature dipped below zero for several days. Those heaters and everything else electrical in the house were linked to a complex web of extension cords connected to a solitary working outlet.On Thursday, we were in court with another client, a mother of four young children still living in a house where mold is spreading, windows are nailed shut, and electrical wires are exposed. This summer, a decrepit air conditioner unit overheated to the point where it nearly caught fire. The landlord repeatedly ignored the mom’s requests for repairs, claiming she accepted the home “as is”—a disclaimer that may be allowed with used car purchases but is explicitly illegal in rental housing. When the landlord finally did take some action, it was to simply paint over the mold.Also last week, I read that, in the Indiana city of South Bend, six children ranging in age from 17 months to 11 years old were killed when the home where they were living caught fire. The South Bend Tribune reports that the rental home failed a safety inspection in July after an inspector found ten separate violations, including an “electrical problem throughout the entire home.” Demetris Smith, 10 years old; Davida Smith, 9 years old; Deontay Smith, 5 years old; D’Angelo Smith, 4 years old; and Faith Smith, 17 months old, all perished. Angel Smith, 11 years old, survived for a few days before dying last week in Riley Children’s Hospital here in Indianapolis. Angel’s death officially made it the most deadly fire in the city’s history. Almost every person we speak with in eviction court, along with virtually every unhoused person we connect with, has been or still is living in housing that is seriously unhealthy and often dangerous. Health departments struggle to regulate housing codes. The handful of lawyers available to file claims against landlords are overwhelmed with their current docket, constantly having to turn away tenants who endure horrible conditions. We do our work in Indiana. Our state is certainly not alone in our struggle to ensure decent housing conditions, but we are among those who do the least to protect tenants. The Greater Indianapolis Multifaith Alliance told the stories of some Indiana renters in this short video; our student Jacob Purcell wrote a detailed analysis of the housing conditions crisis in a comprehensive reportavailable on our clinic web page. Ko Lyn Cheang, then of the IndyStar, wrotehere about one of the many local investor-owned apartment complexes where tenants are forced to live in egregious conditions.But we can add the toll that indecent housing conditions takes on low-income renters to the suffering caused by housing insecurity overall. A study by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Eviction Lab at Princeton University showeddramatic increases in mortality rates associated with evictions. “Simply being threatened with an eviction—even when that case did not result in an eviction judgment—was associated with a 19% increase in mortality,” the researchers reported. “Receiving an eviction judgment was associated with a 40% increase in the risk of death.”Add that startling finding on top of what we know happens post-eviction. It has long been clear that there is a hugely disproportionate death toll among unhoused people. Homeless individuals die at an average age of 50 years old.None of this comes as a surprise here: with our clients, it is easy to see the physical and mental pain caused by their housing crises. Fortunately, none have yet suffered the unimaginable tragedy that was visited on the Smith family in South Bend. But our housing crisis is definitely a life-and-death struggle, and this week a lot of people were losing that fight.
Housing January 29th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 0.6% Week-over-week, Up 7.9% Year-over-year ppAltos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.6% week-over-week. Inventory will likely decrease a little seasonally until the Spring (it could remain mostly flat for a few months like in 2019). This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of January 26th, inventory was at 503 thousand (7-day average), compared to 506 thousand the prior week. Inventory is still far below pre-pandemic levels. The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Note that inventory is up 85% from the record low for the same week in 2022, but still well below normal levels.Inventory was up 7.9% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 7.1%), and down 39.2% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week down 38.6%). Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels has closed a little.Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 5.1% year-over-year in November -S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for November ("November" is a 3-month average of September, October and November closing prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. From S&P S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Upward Trend Decelerates in November: The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.1% annual gain in November, up from a 4.7% rise in the previous month. The 10-City Composite showed an increase of 6.2%, up from a 5.7% increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 5.4%, up from a 4.9% increase in the previous month. Once again, Detroit reported the highest year-over-year gain among the 20 cities with an 8.2% increase in November, followed again by San Diego with an 8% increase. For the third month in a row, Portland fell 0.7% and remained the only city reporting lower prices in November versus a year ago. ... For the first time since January 2023, the U.S. National Index and 20-City Composite posted 0.2% month-over-month decreases in November, while the 10-City Composite posted a 0.1% decrease. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index and the 10-City Composite posted month-overmonth increases of 0.2%, while the 20-City Composite posted a month-over-month increase of 0.1%. The streak of nine monthly gains ended in November, setting the index back to levels last seen over the summer months. Seattle and San Francisco reported the largest monthly declines, falling 1.4% and 1.3%, respectively.” “November’s year-over-year gain saw the largest growth in U.S. home prices in 2023, with our National Composite rising 5.1% and the 10-city index rising 6.2%. Detroit held its position as the best performing market for the third month in a row, accelerating to an 8.2% gain. San Diego notched an 8% annual gain, retaining its second spot in the nation. Barring a late surge from another market, those cities will vie for the ‘housing market of the year’ as the best performing city in our composite.” “Six cities registered a new all-time high in November (Miami, Tampa, Atlanta, Charlotte, New York, and Cleveland). Portland remains the lone market in annual decline. The Northeast and Midwest recorded the largest gains with returns of 6.4% and 6.3%, respectively. Other regions are not far behind with the slowest gains in the West of 3%. This month’s report revealed the narrowest spread of performance across the nation since the first quarter of 2021.” The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000). The Composite 10 index is up 0.2% in November (SA) and is at a new all-time high. The Composite 20 index is up 0.1% (SA) in November and is also at a new all-time high. The National index is up 0.2% (SA) in November and is also at a new all-time high. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices. The Composite 10 SA is up 6.2% year-over-year. The Composite 20 SA is up 5.4% year-over-year. The National index SA is up 5.1% year-over-year. Annual price changes were below expectations..
Comments on November Case-Shiller and FHFA House Prices – McBride - Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 5.1% year-over-year in November Excerpt: S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for November ("November" is a 3-month average of September, October and November closing prices). November closing prices include some contracts signed in July, so there is a significant lag to this data. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA). The MoM increase in the seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller National Index was at 0.24%. This was the ninth consecutive MoM increase, but the smallest increase since February 2023. On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices increased in 14 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities on a month-to-month basis. Seasonally adjusted, San Francisco has fallen 8.8% from the recent peak, Seattle is down 7.2% from the peak, Portland down 4.5%, and Phoenix is down 3.4%..
Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in December; Up 6.6% Year-over-year Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in December; Up 6.6% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: On a year-over-year basis, the National FMHPI was up 6.6% in December, from up 6.1% YoY in November. The YoY increase peaked at 19.1% in July 2021, and for this cycle, bottomed at up 0.9% YoY in April 2023. ... As of December, 10 states were below their previous peaks, Seasonally Adjusted. The largest seasonally adjusted declines from the recent peak were in Maine (-3.4%), Idaho (-2.3%), Louisiana (-1.9%), and Washington (-1.8%). For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Austin continues to be the worst performing city.
Buyers can now afford $40K more house, Redfin finds -Homebuyers have gained at least $40,000 more in purchasing power as a result of mortgage rates falling at least 100 basis points since October. That shift has led to an increase in bidding wars, Redfin said.A potential buyer with a budget of $3,000 per month for their payments is now able to afford an approximately $453,000 home at the current average rate for the 30-year fixed mortgageat just under 6.7% as measured by Freddie Mac.When the 30-year FRM peaked at 7.79% in October (anecdotal reports had some lenders offering 8% mortgages), buyers at that same $3,000 budget could only afford a $416,000 property.Mortgage rates are unlikely to move meaningfully as the market moves forward, Redfin Chief Economist Darryl Fairweather said in a press release, echoing what her colleagues at Freddie Mac said in their Primary Mortgage Market Survey report last week.That means that buyers will not gain anything if they are looking to time the market, as they did during the "golden window" of record low rates in 2021, she stated."Instead, buyers should consider their own personal and financial circumstances: What matters most is whether the home meets your needs long term and whether you can afford it," Fairweather said. At current rates, the monthly payment for a typical U.S. home with a sales price of roughly $363,000, is $2,545. But that payment was nearly $200 higher each month, at $2,713, when rates were at 7.8% the last week of October.
HVS: Q4 2023 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates -- The Census Bureau released the Residential Vacancies and Homeownership report for Q4 2023 today. The results of this survey were significantly distorted by the pandemic in 2020. This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to track household formation, the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates. This survey might show the trend, but I wouldn't rely on the absolute numbers. Analysts probably shouldn't use the HVS to estimate the excess vacant supply or household formation, or rely on the homeownership rate, except as a guide to the trend. National vacancy rates in the fourth quarter 2023 were 6.6 percent for rental housing and 0.9 percent for homeowner housing. The rental vacancy rate was higher than the rate in the fourth quarter 2022 (5.8 percent) and virtually the same as the rate in the third quarter 2023 (6.6 percent). The homeowner vacancy rate of 0.9 percent was not statistically different than the rate in the fourth quarter 2022 (0.8 percent) and not statistically different from the rate in the third quarter 2023 (0.8 percent). The homeownership rate of 65.7 percent was not statistically different from the rate in the fourth quarter 2022 (65.9 percent) and not statistically different from the rate in the third quarter 2023 (66.0 percent). The Red dots are the decennial Census homeownership rates for April 1st, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020. The HVS homeownership rate decreased to 65.7% in Q4, from 66.0% in Q3. The results in Q2 and Q3 2020 were distorted by the pandemic and should be ignored. The HVS homeowner vacancy increased to 0.9% in Q4 from 0.8% in Q3. The homeowner vacancy rate declined sharply during the pandemic and includes homes that are vacant and for sale (so this mirrors the low levels of existing home inventory). The rental vacancy rate was unchanged at 6.6% in Q4 from 6.6% in Q3. This is up from 5.8% in Q4 2022. The quarterly HVS is the timeliest survey on households, but there are many questions about the accuracy of this survey.
Q4 2023 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate - The BEA released the underlying details for the Q4 advance GDP report on Friday. The BEA reported that investment in non-residential structures increased at a 3.2% annual pace in Q4. Investment in petroleum and natural gas structures increased in Q4 compared to Q3 and was up 5% year-over-year. The first graph shows investment in offices, malls and lodging as a percent of GDP. Investment in offices (blue) increased slightly in Q4 and was up 5.0% year-over-year. And mostly unchanged as a percent of GDP. Investment in multimerchandise shopping structures (malls) peaked in 2007 and was up about 8% year-over-year in Q4. The vacancy rate for malls is still very high, so investment will probably stay low for some time. Lodging investment decreased in Q4 compared to Q3, and lodging investment was up 5% year-over-year. All three sectors - offices, malls, and hotels - were hurt significantly by the pandemic. And the office vacancy rate is at a record high, and this will push down office investment. The second graph is for Residential investment components as a percent of GDP. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, RI includes new single-family structures, multifamily structures, home improvement, Brokers’ commissions and other ownership transfer costs, and a few minor categories (dormitories, manufactured homes). Investment in single family structures was $417 billion (SAAR) (about 1.5% of GDP) and was up 4% year-over-year. Investment in multi-family structures was up slightly in Q4 to $135 billion (SAAR) from Q3, and up 14% YoY. Investment in home improvement was at a $345 billion (SAAR) in Q4 (about 1.2% of GDP). Home improvement spending was strong during the pandemic but has declined as a percent of GDP recently. Note that Brokers' commissions (black) increased sharply as existing home sales increased in the second half of 2020 but declined when mortgage rates increased. Brokers' commissions were down 5% year-over-year in Q4.
Las Vegas December 2023: Visitor Traffic Up 3% YoY; Convention Traffic Down 11% –-From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: December 2023 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics - Closing out the year with roughly 3.4M visitors in December, Las Vegas ended 2023 with annual visitation of 40.8M visitors, +5.2% ahead of 2022. As the convention/group segment strengthened over 2022, annual est. convention attendance neared 6.0M in 2023, roughly 20% ahead of 2022's 5.0M tally. 2023 annual hotel occupancy reached 83.5%, +4.3 pts YoY, as Weekend occupancy reached 90.7% (+1.4 pts YoY) while Midweek occupancy improved to 80.3% for the year, +5.6 pts YoY. Annual ADR for 2023 surpassed $191, beating last year by 11.9% while RevPAR neared $160, up 18% vs. 2022. The first graph shows visitor traffic for 2019 (Black), 2020 (light blue), 2021 (purple), 2022 (orange), and 2023 (red). Visitor traffic was up 2.7% compared to last December. For all of 2023, visitor traffic was up 5.2% compared to 2022. Visitor traffic was down 2.0% compared to the same month in 2019. The second graph shows convention traffic. Convention traffic was down 11.0% compared to December 2022, and down 4.5% compared to November 2019. For all of 2023, convention traffic was up 19.9% compared to 2022. Note: There was almost no convention traffic from April 2020 through May 2021.
US EV Sales Climbed 29% In Q4 -- Plug-in electric vehicle sales in the United States rose by an annual 29% in the fourth quarter of the year, within the context of a much more moderate total car sales increase of 8%, Clean Technica reported. Tesla, the biggest EV seller, ranked eighth on a list that saw Toyota at the top with close to 524,000 cars sold during the quarter, followed by Ford, Chevrolet, Honda, and Hyundai completing the top five.The report suggests 2023 was a strong year for EVs in the United States, following an earlier report with annual sales data from Cox Automotive that said EV sales in the country had reached 1.2 million last year.This boosted the share of electric vehicles to 7.6% of the total car market but Cox Automotive added that there has been a clear slowdown in demand for EVs, even as Clean Technica said “Don’t believe all the EV anti-hype.”Cox Automotive, meanwhile, noted that EVs have yet to reach price parity with internal combustion engine vehicles and this was looking increasingly possible over the next few years—thanks to a selection of subsidies—but for now EVs remained quite expensive.A recent InsideEVs report on November EV sales in the United States confirmed the slowdown in sales growth. Citing data from S&P Global Mobility, the report said that total battery electric vehicle sales in November stood at 89,527, which was a 30% annual increase, it only represented a 1.2% increase in market share—to 7.7% from 6.5% a year earlier.That report noted that Tesla had registered a relatively modest increase in sales during the penultimate month of the year while other EV makers had seen double-digit sales growth, including Ford, with 21% higher sales in November than a year earlier. Kia and Hyundai saw a twofold increase in their EV sales in the U.S. in November.
New month’s data starts out with leading indicators in both manufacturing and construction indicating expansion – As usual, the new month’s data starts out with information on manufacturing and construction.The ISM manufacturing index has been a good leading indicator in that sector for 75 years. The difference over time, especially the last 20 years, is that manufacturing makes up a smaller share of the total US economy.With that caveat, after almost 18 months in contraction, the most leading new orders subindex in the ISM report rose from 47.0 to 52.5. Since any reading above 50 indicates expansion, this is welcome news (although I hasten to add that it is diametrically opposed to the poor regional Fed manufacturing readings for January). The Index as a whole rose from 47.1 to 49.1, still showing very slight contraction, but nevertheless a 1+ year high:This is (relatively) good news for the manufacturing sector.Construction spending continued its strong improvement. Total spending (light blue below) rose 0.9% in December, and the more leading residential construction sector (dark blue) increased 1.4%, both to new all-time (nominal) highs:Since producer prices for construction materials rose 0.6% in December (red), this indicates real growth of 0.8% in residential construction spending, a strong showing. The bottom line is that this is good news in both leading goods-producing sectors to start out the month. Manufacturing and construction have the most positive reports all year.
BLS: Job Openings Little Changed at 9.0 million in December -- From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings changed little at 9.0 million on the last business day of December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.6 million and 5.4 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.4 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.6 million) changed little. The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS. This series started in December 2000. Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for December; the employment report this Friday will be for January. Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data. Jobs openings increased in December to 9.03 million from 8.93 million in November. The number of job openings (black) were down 20% year-over-year. Quits were down 17% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (See light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").
ADP: Private Employment Increased 107,000 in January From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 107,000 Jobs in January; Annual Pay was Up 5.2%Private sector employment increased by 107,000 jobs in January and annual pay was up 5.2 percent year-over-year, according to the January ADP® National Employment ReportTM produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (“Stanford Lab”). The ADP National Employment Report is an independent measure and high-frequency view of the private-sector labor market based on actual, anonymized payroll data of more than 25 million U.S. employees. ... “Progress on inflation has brightened the economic picture despite a slowdown in hiring and pay,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Wages adjusted for inflation have improved over the past six months, and the economy looks like it's headed toward a soft landing in the U.S. and globally.” This was below the consensus forecast of 130,000. The BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 162 thousand non-farm payroll jobs added in January.
January Employment Report: 353 thousand Jobs, 3.7% Unemployment Rate --From the BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 353,000 in January, and the unemployment rate remained at 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, retail trade, and social assistance. Employment declined in the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction industry.... The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for November was revised up by 9,000, from +173,000 to +182,000, and the change for December was revised up by 117,000, from +216,000 to +333,000. With these revisions, employment in November and December combined is 126,000 higher than previously reported.The first graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.Total payrolls increased by 353 thousand in January. Private payrolls increased by 317 thousand, and public payrolls increased 36 thousand.Payrolls for November and December were revised up 126 thousand, combined.The second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968. In January, the year-over-year change was 2.93 million jobs. Employment was up solidly year-over-year.The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate. The Labor Force Participation Rate was unchanged at 62.5% in January, from 62.5% in December. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force. The Employment-Population ratio increased to 60.2% from 60.41% (blue line). The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7% in January from 3.7% in December. This was well above consensus expectations and November and December payrolls were revised up by 126,000 combined. On the annual benchmark revision: The seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment level for March 2023 was revised downward by 266,000. On a not seasonally adjusted basis, the total nonfarm employment level for March 2023 was revised downward by 187,000, or -0.1 percent. Not seasonally adjusted, the absolute average benchmark revision over the past 10 years is 0.1 percent.
January jobs report: a very strong report, but with pockets of significant weakness -- As per usual, the Establishment and Household portions of the jobs report gave somewhat different impressions, complicated by annual revisions to each. In general, not only was January excellent of the Establishment report, but most months in the past year were revised upward as well. The Household report mainly was “meh,” neither particularly improving nor declining. Finally, aggregate hours and payrolls were a little concerning. My focus remains on whether jobs gains are most consistent with a “soft landing,” i.e., no further deterioration, or whether deceleration is ongoing; and more specifically:
- Whether there is further deceleration in jobs gains compared with the last 6-month average (Needless to say, the answer to this was a resounding “NO!”)
- Whether the unemployment rate is neutral or decreasing; or whether there is further weakness; (As expected from the information from initial claims, there was no further weakness) and
- Based on the leading relationship of the quits rate to average hourly earnings, whether YoY wage growth continues to decline slightly (To the contrary, it rebounded).
Here’s my in-depth synopsis.
- 353,000 jobs added. On a YoY basis, jobs rounded to up 1.9%. Due to the annual revisions, this is now tied for the lowest YoY% gain since March 2021.
- Both November and December were revised upward, by 9,000 and 117,000 respectively, for a total of 126,000. Almost every month last year, there was a steady drumbeat of downward revisions. This has been all but wiped away by the annual revisions, in which 9 of the last 12 months were revised higher.
- Private sector jobs increased 317,000. Government jobs increased by 36,000.
- The alternate, and more volatile measure in the household report, declined by -451,000 before taking into account the annual revisions. After doing so, the month over month change would have been +239,000. More importantly, the YoY% gain in this report – which avoids issues with seasonal adjustment – declined sharply to +0.6%, the lowest since the pandemic lockdowns.
- The U3 unemployment rate remained at 3.7%.
- The U6 underemployment rate increased +0.1% to 7.2%, 0.7% above its low of December 2022.
- Further out on the spectrum, those who are not in the labor force but want a job now increased 122,000 to 5.793 million, its highest level since September 2022, vs. its post-pandemic low of 4.925 million set last March
- The average manufacturing workweek, one of the 10 components of the Index of Leading Indicators, declined sharply, by another -0.3 hours to 40.0, down -1.5 hours from its February 2022 peak of 41.5 hours, and the lowest level since June 2020.
- Manufacturing jobs rose 23,000.
- Within that sector, motor vehicle manufacturing jobs rose 3,100.
- Construction jobs increased by 11,000.
- Residential construction jobs, which are even more leading, rose by 2,500. This is a yet another new post-pandemic high.
- Goods jobs as a whole rose 11,000 to another new expansion high. These should decline before any recession occurs. After revisions, these are up 1.2% YoY, the lowest growth since early in the pandemic, but which is nevertheless average compared with most of the last 40 years.
- Temporary jobs, which have generally been declining late 2022, rose by 3,900, and are down about -250,000 since their peak in March 2022.
- The number of people unemployed for 5 weeks or fewer declined -51,000 to 2,140,000.
- Average Hourly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel increased $.13, or +0.4%, to $29.66, a YoY gain of +4.8%. The last 3 months have seen the previous deceleration in this metric stop.
- The index of aggregate hours worked for non-managerial workers fell -0.2% to the lowest level in 5 months, and after revisions is only up 0.2% YoY, the lowest since March 2021.
- The index of aggregate payrolls for non-managerial workers rose 0.2% and decelerated to being up 5.0% YoY. This is still 1.7% above the most recent YoY inflation rate. In the last 3 months, inflation has only averaged 0.1% monthly, so this may be a positive in real terms as well.
- Leisure and hospitality jobs, which were the most hard-hit during the pandemic, rose another 11,000, which is only -75,000, or -0.4% below their pre-pandemic peak.
- Within the leisure and hospitality sector, food and drink establishments rose 4,600,. This sector has completely recovered from its pandemic downturn.
- Professional and business employment increased 74,000. These tend to be well-paying jobs, This series had been declining since last May, but after revisions, the last 2 months have both made new record highs.
- The employment population ratio increased +0.1% to 60.2%, vs. 61.1% in February 2020.
- The Labor Force Participation Rate was unchanged at 62.5%, vs. 63.4% in February 2020.
SUMMARY : This month’s report was complicated by extensive revisions to the Establishment side, and population adjustments to the Household side. In general, the Establishment numbers were revised downward in the early part of last year, but upward in almost all months ever since. With these revisions, almost all of the monthly deceleration which I discussed monthly last year has disappeared, although it remains on a YoY basis – but the YoY level of growth is presently to 1.9%, which historically has been perfectly normal. As noted above, almost all of the leading (and coincident) job sectors showed gains, a number to new post-pandemic highs. Nonsupervisory wage gains appear to have leveled off (i.e., have stopped decelerating) on a real, inflation-adjusted basis. There were some negatives. The manufacturing workweek is practically screaming “recession” in that sector. In fact, this is a decline typical at the bottom of recessions. Additionally, aggregate hours declined, and aggregate real payrolls *may* have stalled. Also, the U6 underemployment rate increased again. This series only has a 30 year history, but during that history, the level of increase we have seen has only happened early in recessions. Overall, I interpret this as a very strong report, but with pockets of significant weakness.
Employment in January: Benchmark Revisions, Seasonality, Population Controls -by Menzie Chinn -The Employment Situation release for January 2024 incorporated annual benchmark revisions to establishment survey series, and reported population controls for the household survey series. NFP at +353 vs. +187 thousands Bloomberg consensus. (Last year at this time, NFP again surprised, at +517 thousand exceeding the Bloomberg consensus of +115 thousand.) Here’s nonfarm payroll employment according to several measures. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment from January 2024 incorporating benchmark revision (bold red), NFP from December 2023 (light red), and author’s calculation of implied benchmark revision using preliminary benchmark for March 2023 (blue), implied level from preliminary benchmark by author and Bloomberg consensus change for January (light blue square), Philadelphia Fed early benchmark (light green), and household survey series on civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept as reported (pink), and for January 2024, adjusted household series removing effect of revised population controls (purple square). Adjustment to remove revised population controls assumes overall civilian employment increases 0.957 of total control for all civilian employment. Source: BLS (January 2024, December 2023 releases), author’s calculations, BLS. Surprising (to me) is that the benchmark revised series far exceeded the preliminary benchmark revision I calculated (blue line), and the early benchmark calculated by the Philadelphia Fed (light green line).The CPS employment series adjusted to the NFP concept (a research series, not official), shows a sharp decline, mirroring the decline in the civilian employment series. A similar decline occurred a year ago, with the implementation of new population controls. I attempted to get a feeling for what impact new population controls might have, by using the ratio of adjusted employment to total employment (about 0.957) to adjust the -270 thousands coming from the January population control. This shows up as the purple square in Figure 1. Hence, unlike last year, the implied decline is not erased. That being said, it is important to recall that the population survey series incorporate much larger sampling error than the establishment survey series. For tracking business cycle movements, the household survey based series are typically less informative than the establishment survey based series.The January seasonal effect is quite large, typically. Hence, it is of interest to consider how big an impact a possible mis-estimation of the seasonal component might have. One way to see this is to compare the 12 month change in the seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted series. This is shown in Figure 2.Figure 2: Twelve month change in nonfarm payroll employment, January release (bold red), from not seasonally adjusted, January release (lilac), and December 2023 (light red), all calculated in log differences. Source: BLS and author’s calculations.Note the y/y growth rates from the seasonally adjusted and seasonally adjusted series for January 2024 do not differ a lot. On the other hand, the seasonally adjusted series for January 2024 vs. December 2023 do differ substantially.
Comments on January Employment Report -McBride - This was a very strong report; however, the benchmark revision showed job growth was slower over the last year than originally reported. Including revisions: The 3.06 million jobs added in 2023 was the 17th best year for job growth in US history (out of 84 years) following the two best years on record (2021 and 2022). The headline jobs number in the January employment report was well above expectations, and November and December payrolls were revised up by 126,000 combined. The participation rate was unchanged, the employment population ratio increased, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7%. Leisure and hospitality gained 11 thousand jobs in January. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 75 thousand jobs since February 2020. So, leisure and hospitality has now added back about 99% all of the jobs lost in March and April 2020. Construction employment increased 11 thousand and is now 522 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Manufacturing employment increased 23 thousand jobs and is now 199 thousand above the pre-pandemic level.Earlier: January Employment Report: 353 thousand Jobs, 3.7% Unemployment Rate. Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old. The 25 to 54 years old participation rate increased in January to 83.3% from 83.2% in December, and the 25 to 54 employment population ratio increased to 80.6% from 80.4% the previous month.Both are close to the pre-pandemic levels.The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES). There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later. Wage growth has mostly trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.5% YoY in January. From the BLS report:"In January, the number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.4 million, changed little. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs."The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in January to 4.42 million from 4.21 million in December. This is slightly above pre-pandemic levels These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that increased to 7.2% from 7.1% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 23.0% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.5%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is close to the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more. According to the BLS, there are 1.277 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, up from 1.245 million the previous month.This is down from post-pandemic high of 4.174 million, and up from the recent low of 1.050 million. This is close to pre-pandemic levels. Through January 2024, the employment report indicated positive job growth for 37 consecutive months, putting the current streak in 5th place of the longest job streaks in US history (since 1939). Summary: The headline monthly jobs number was well above consensus expectations, and November and December payrolls were revised up by 126,000 combined. The annual benchmark revision indicated job growth was lower than originally reported. The participation rate was unchanged, the employment population ratio increased, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7%. A strong employment report.
Walmart to offer managers company stock as compensation -The country’s largest retail store will now hand out stock grants to store managers as part of compensation packages. Walmart announced the change Monday, adding to an increase in salary made earlier this month. Store managers can now see stock grants as high as $20,000 per year for the largest stores, with smaller store managers eligible for grants of $15,000 or $10,000. Walmart already increased store manager wages by an average of 9 percent earlier this month to $128,000 per year, and expanded bonus compensation to up to 200 percent of salary. The moves discourage turnover at the key managerial positions. The company stock has skyrocketed in recent years, rising by 75 percent in the last five years. Stock is up about a half percent Monday on the news, closing just short of an all-time high at $165 per share. Walmart executive vice president Cedric Clark described the expanded compensation for managers as an “investment.” “We see an investment in you as an investment in our culture, our core values and in the day-to-day experience of every associate in every store,” he said earlier this month. “Investing in you is an investment in our future.” Walmart has over 10,000 stores in the U.S. and more than 1.6 million employees, according to the company. It is the single largest private employer in the country.
Prisoners in the US are part of a hidden workforce linked to hundreds of popular food brands (AP) — A hidden path to America’s dinner tables begins here, at an unlikely source – a former Southern slave plantation that is now the country’s largest maximum-security prison.Unmarked trucks packed with prison-raised cattle roll out of the Louisiana State Penitentiary, where men are sentenced to hard labor and forced to work, for pennies an hour or sometimes nothing at all. After rumbling down a country road to an auction house, the cows are bought by a local rancher and then followed by The Associated Press another 600 miles to a Texas slaughterhouse that feeds into the supply chains of giants like McDonald’s, Walmart and Cargill.Intricate, invisible webs, just like this one, link some of the world’s largest food companies and most popular brands to jobs performed by U.S. prisoners nationwide, according to a sweeping two-year AP investigation into prison labor that tied hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of agricultural products to goods sold on the open market.They are among America’s most vulnerable laborers. If they refuse to work, some can jeopardize their chances of parole or face punishment like being sent to solitary confinement. They also are often excluded from protections guaranteed to almost all other full-time workers, even when they are seriously injured or killed on the job.The goods these prisoners produce wind up in the supply chains of a dizzying array of products found in most American kitchens, from Frosted Flakes cereal and Ball Park hot dogs to Gold Medal flour, Coca-Cola and Riceland rice. They are on the shelves of virtually every supermarket in the country, including Kroger, Target, Aldi and Whole Foods. And some goods are exported, including to countries that have had products blocked from entering the U.S. for using forced or prison labor.Many of the companies buying directly from prisons are violating their own policies against the use of such labor. But it’s completely legal, dating back largely to the need for labor to help rebuild the South’s shattered economy after the Civil War. Enshrined in the Constitution by the 13th Amendment, slavery and involuntary servitude are banned – except as punishment for a crime.That clause is currently being challenged on the federal level, and efforts to remove similar language from state constitutions are expected to reach the ballot in about a dozen states this year.Some prisoners work on the same plantation soil where slaves harvested cotton, tobacco and sugarcane more than 150 years ago, with some present-day images looking eerily similar to the past. In Louisiana, which has one of the country’s highest incarceration rates, men working on the “farm line” still stoop over crops stretching far into the distance.In addition to tapping a cheap, reliable workforce, companies sometimes get tax credits and other financial incentives. Incarcerated workers also typically aren’t covered by the most basic protections, including workers’ compensation and federal safety standards. In many cases, they cannot file official complaints about poor working conditions. These prisoners often work in industries with severe labor shortages, doing some of the country’s dirtiest and most dangerous jobs. The AP sifted through thousands of pages of documents and spoke to more than 80 current or formerly incarcerated people, including men and women convicted of crimes that ranged from murder to shoplifting, writing bad checks, theft or other illegal acts linked to drug use. Some were given long sentences for nonviolent offenses because they had previous convictions, while others were released after proving their innocence. Reporters found people who were hurt or maimed on the job, and also interviewed women who were sexually harassed or abused, sometimes by their civilian supervisors or the correctional officers overseeing them. While it’s often nearly impossible for those involved in workplace accidents to sue, the AP examined dozens of cases that managed to make their way into the court system. Reporters also spoke to family members of prisoners who were killed.
Oregon Supreme Court rules GOP lawmakers who walked out can’t run for reelection | --The Oregon Supreme Court ruled Thursday that 10 GOP state senators cannot run for reelection after they refused to attend Senate sessions for about six weeks out of protest last year in an attempt to stall Democratic-backed bills.The court ruling upholds a secretary of state decision to keep the lawmakers off 2024 ballots, citing a 2022 referendum that bars lawmakers from seeking reelection if they have more than 10 unexcused absences.The six-week boycott of the session stopped work and prevented voting, the longest such freeze in the state’s history. The absent lawmakers demanded legislative concessions in exchange for their return.Republicans control a minority of the state Senate, 12 of the body’s 30 seats. By walking out, the Senate could not reach a quorum and conduct votes. Five of the lawmakers challenged the secretary of state decision, arguing that the specific wording of the 2022 referendum should allow them one more term before being barred from office.Court arguments focused on the grammar of the referendum, with each party arguing over when the election ban would take place. The constitutional amendment says a lawmaker is not allowed to run “for the term following the election after the member’s current term is completed.” The lawmakers argued that would let them run again, as the election is held before the end of their terms, with the secretary of state and ultimately the state Supreme Court disagreeing.
Texas AG Paxton sues cities over marijuana decriminalization - Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) is suing five Texas cities over their decriminalization of marijuana.In a Wednesday press release, the office of the attorney general (OAG) said it was suing the cities for “instructing police not to enforce Texas drug laws concerning possession and distribution of marijuana. The drug, the OAG added, is one that “psychologists have increasingly linked to psychosis and other negative consequences.”Paxton’s suit comes amid a broader push by the conservative state government to exert authority over its left-leaning cities.The five cities targeted in Wednesday’s suit are Austin, San Marcos, Killeen, Elgin and Denton, each of which enacted laws decriminalizing marijuana one to three years ago. Paxton did not clarify why he chose to bring the lawsuit now.Although none of the cities has legalized the drug — which would allow it to be bought and sold openly — each has passed ordinances directing police and prosecutors to deprioritize pressing charges against people holding small amounts of cannabis.In Austin, for example, a 2020 city council resolution directed police not to press charges against those caught with less than 4 ounces of marijuana.In November 2022, voters in the other cities now being sued by Paxton resoundingly approved ballot measures that decriminalized up to the same limit — though these reforms have drawn resistance from local law enforcement.That opposition was strong enough to cause a sixth city — Harker Heights — to drop its decriminalization ordinance just two weeks after voters passed it.And the Harker Heights city manager wrote in a 2022 letter that the responsibility to decriminalize rested with the state. That’s an opinion that Paxton’s office shares — and one that informs the suit against the five cities that still have decriminalized marijuana.
Do Food Dyes Make Kids Wild Out? - The Incidental Economist (Posts) (Healthcare Triage video with Dr Aaron Carroll) Avoiding certain food dyes to help improve a child’s behavioral issues is common advice, and not just on TikTok! Several doctors stand behind this recommendation as well. But several doctors also prescribe vitamin D, and that’s usually pretty useless according to the data. So where do the data stand on food dyes?
Study Finds Over 33 Million Instagram, TikTok Posts Promoting Harmful Content to Kids --As five Big Tech executives appeared before the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee on Wednesday, the group Ekō released a report highlighting how "social media companies are not only failing to safeguard young users from harm, but actively profiting from it.""This briefing serves as an urgent call for legislative action," says the 17-page publication from Ekō—previously called SumOfUs—which is addressed to the Senate panel on the first page and urges constituents to contact their members of Congress.The report builds on Ekō research from 2021 and 2023. Again, the group focused on TikTok and Meta-owned Instagram, examining posts about "body image issues, skin whitening, mental health issues, including suicide and self-harm, as well as incel and misogynistic content.""A handful of tech CEOs have manufactured a new public health crisis and it's harming kids with increasing ferocity.""This updated research, conducted between January 18th-25th, 2024 provides concrete data for members of the committee on how this kind of problematic content not only remains rampant on the platforms but in some cases has increased in volume," the document states.Ekō's investigation uncovered over 33.26 million posts on both platforms "under hashtags housing problematic content directed at young users." Specifically, researchers found:
- 8 hashtags about suicide leading to 1.54 million posts—a 33% increase in content since the group's research last year;
- 14 hashtags about involuntary celibate (incel) and manosphere content, leading to over a million posts—a 161% increase from 2023;
- 5 hashtags about eating disorders leading to more than 1.28 million posts;
- 16 hashtags about plastic and body modification surgeries leading to over 24.84 million posts—a 67% increase from 2021; and
- 22 hashtags about skin whitening leading to 4.54 million posts.
Meanwhile, the report points, "social media giants are making a staggering $11 billion in U.S. ad revenue from ads targeted at minors, and despite promising to take action to stop directing personalized ads to children, they continue to do so.""Health experts are increasingly worried about the role of social media platforms in fueling the child mental health crisis, while multiple studies have exposed the growing problem of child sexual exploitation online; and academics point to the growing evidence of addiction to social media among young people," the document adds, urging "decisive actions from lawmakers."Ekō campaigner Maen Hammad echoed that call to action in a statement, saying that "this research underscores what we've known for a very long time now—a handful of tech CEOs have manufactured a new public health crisis and it's harming kids with increasing ferocity.""Senators can ask Mark Zuckerberg as many questions as they like, but it's not going to fix the problem unless we also get robust new laws," Hammad added, referring to Meta's CEO. "The real question is how much more evidence do U.S. lawmakers need before they act to defend our children from these predatory tech monopolies."In addition to Zuckerberg, whose company also owns Facebook, members of the Senate Judiciary Committee heard testimony from TikTok's Shou Chew, Snap's Evan Spiegel, Discord's Jason Citron, and Linda Yaccarino of X, the platform formerly called Twitter and owned by billionaire Elon Musk.Ekō—which supports a full ban on surveillance advertising, the establishment of an algorithmic oversight board, and ending Big Tech's predatory business model based on personal data harvesting—was far from alone in demanding legislative action as the panel held its "Big Tech and the Online Child Sexual Exploitation Crisis" hearing.
Examining math anxiety among middle schoolers and how it affects their performance --Math anxiety, which can begin as early as kindergarten, negatively affects students' math performance both in the moment and throughout their math education. Most research focuses on the affective or physiological aspects of math anxiety—the feeling of your palms sweating or the sense that your heart is racing. But, as University of Delaware Associate Professor Jessica Namkung has shown, it's much more than that.In a study published in Psychology in the Schools, Namkung and her co-authors J. Marc Goodrich and Kejin Lee examine the dimensions of math anxiety and study whether the relationship between math anxiety and math performance varies by dimension.By "dimension," Namkung refers to two specific components of math anxiety:negative affect, which refers to unpleasant physiological responses, like tension, nervousness or a stomachache; and negative cognition, which refers to students' negative beliefs about their math performance, self-deprecating thoughts and worries, even during moments of calm.In their study of 243 sixth graders from two midwestern middle schools, Namkung and her co-authors found that math anxiety is indeed characterized by more than a feeling. Negative cognition is an important component of math anxiety, and it significantly impacts students' math performance.Overall, Namkung and her co-authors found that math anxiety accounted for 15.5% of the variance in students' grade-level computational skills—the skills needed to perform more advanced, multi-step math problems. But their specific finding about negative cognition is telling: Namkung and her co-authors found that negative cognition in particular significantly and negatively affected students' grade-level computational skills. By contrast, they did not find that the affective dimension of math anxiety impacted these skills."We often think about math anxiety as emotions, but math anxiety-induced worries and negative thoughts create cognitive interference," said Namkung, who specializes in math learning difficulties in UD's College of Education and Human Development (CEHD)."That is, they take up valuable cognitive resources, such as working memory, that should be devoted to solving math problems at hand. This, in turn, has a negative impact on students' math performance."
Q&A: For students still feeling pandemic shock the clock is ticking—report shows persistent achievement gaps -- A new report from the Education Recovery Scorecard, a collaboration between the Center for Education Policy Research at Harvard and the Educational Opportunity Project at Stanford University, shows that some states, including Massachusetts, are still struggling to close academic achievement gaps that widened during the pandemic. "The First Year of Pandemic Recovery: A District-Level Analysis" examined math and reading test scores in grades 3–8 in approximately 8,000 school districts in 30 states from spring 2019 to spring 2023. In a conversation about the findings, co-author Thomas Kane, an economist at Harvard's Graduate School of Education, urged school districts to invest remaining pandemic aid on academic recovery efforts before the funds expire in the fall. The interview was edited for clarity and length. (excerpts follow) If you looked across all the states, the recovery last year was actually large by historical standards. The recovery was twice as large as the average annual rate of change on the National Assessment of Educational Progress from 1990 to 2019 and 50% larger than the annual rate of change from 1990 to 2013, when math scores grew most rapidly. So, it was large, but it varied by state. Some states saw much bigger increases than others. But the most troubling finding was that higher-poverty districts which lost the most during the pandemic did not close the gap nationally. In some states, like Massachusetts, those gaps grew between 2022 and 2023. Alabama is the only state to be back above its pre-pandemic achievement in math, and there are three states that are above their pre-pandemic achievement in reading: Illinois, Mississippi, and Louisiana. But this doesn't mean that Alabama is finished with its recovery. Even in Alabama, the students in Montgomery are still about half a grade level behind. So, yes, there has been progress nationally and, in a few states, their average achievement is back above 2019 levels. But in most states, the achievement gaps between the high-poverty and the low-poverty districts are wider than they were in 2019. At this point, we can't say exactly what made Alabama different. Our report is analogous to the National Assessment of Educational Progress—we are describing where progress is being made, but we're not yet evaluating the efficacy of policies. We're describing what happened to achievement, not just at the state level, but at the individual district level. Soon, we and others will be using these data to understand what distinguished Alabama from Massachusetts. We're just trying to get these [findings] out to inform policymakers and school districts while there's still time.It's especially important right now because there are only eight months left before the federal pandemic relief dollars expire. As we reported last year, students in high-poverty school districts lost more ground than students in higher-income ones during the pandemic. The gaps that were already there in 2019 widened during the pandemic. The most important message from this report is that those widened gaps have not closed. In fact, in some states, just the opposite happened. Even though they lost less ground during the pandemic, wealthier districts like Newton, Wellesley, and Arlington began to recover between 2022 and 2023 while districts like Fall River, Lynn, and Revere, which have high proportions of students experiencing poverty, lost additional ground between 2022 and 2023. There were some states where the recovery is being led by the poorer districts, but even there—even in Alabama, where the recovery was larger for districts like Birmingham—the recovery wasn't enough to completely eliminate the increase in inequality that occurred during the pandemic. So even in Alabama, the poorer districts are lagging further behind their own 2019 achievement as the higher-income districts now exceed their 2019 achievement. We haven't quantified the role of absenteeism in the recovery, but we know from research that each day a student is absent results in lost learning, and, when many students are returning from absences, it disrupts learning for other students in the classroom because a teacher is constantly having to reteach topics. Future research will have to show just how big a role student absenteeism played, but, while we're waiting for that research, communities ought to be doing whatever they can to try to lower absenteeism rates. Absenteeism is one of the very few things that organizations outside of schools can help schools improve.
Neuralink implants the first human brain chip - Elon Musk’s brain-chip startup Neuralink achieved a significant milestone on Sunday, January 28, 2024, by implanting its first human patient with a brain-computer interface. Musk said on Monday the patient is recovering well and initial results are showing neuron spike detection. In a significant advancement in brain-computer interface (BCI) technology, Neuralink, a company founded by Elon Musk, has successfully implanted its first human patient with a brain-chip. The implantation, which took place on January 28, 2024, has shown promising initial results in neuron spike detection, as announced by Musk. The first product from Neuralink, named ‘Telepathy,’ enables users to control phones or computers, and subsequently any connected device, merely through thought. This groundbreaking technology is particularly aimed at helping individuals who have lost the use of their limbs. Musk illustrated the potential impact of this technology by referencing the late Stephen Hawking, suggesting that similar individuals could communicate faster than a speed typist or auctioneer. Neuralink uses a robot to surgically place the BCI in a brain region controlling movement intention. The company’s stated mission is to create a generalized brain interface to restore autonomy to individuals with unmet medical needs and to unlock human potential. The BCI, inserted into the brain by Neuralink’s surgical robot, is cosmetically invisible and designed to wirelessly transmit brain signals to an app that decodes movement intention. In May 2023, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted Neuralink clearance to conduct its first human trial. This approval followed an earlier rejection in 2022 due to major safety concerns. In September 2023, Neuralink announced a significant step forward when it received the green light to start recruiting participants for its first human clinical trial. This trial, named the PRIME Study (Precise Robotically Implanted Brain-Computer Interface), represents a pivotal moment in the field of medical device research. The study’s primary objective is to evaluate the safety and initial functionality of Neuralink’s fully implantable, wireless BCI technology. The study focuses on their implant, known as N1, and the surgical robot, R1. The N1 implant is designed with ultra-fine and flexible threads that are surgically placed into a specific brain region that governs movement intention using the R1 Robot. Once implanted, the N1 device is cosmetically invisible and functions to record and wirelessly transmit brain signals to an application that decodes the user’s movement intention.
How Georgia’s Small Power Companies Endanger Their Most Vulnerable Customers — ProPublica - In early 2019, Tina Marie Marsden needed more time to pay her electric bill. A mother in her mid-40s who lived on a fixed income because of a medical disability, she tried to explain to the local utility that the prospect of having no electricity was more than just an inconvenience. A mechanical pump kept her heart beating, and the pump ran on batteries that needed to be frequently charged. If the batteries ran out, Marsden could die. Marsden had recently moved nearly 40 miles south of downtown Atlanta to Griffin, Georgia, a city that provides electricity to more than 13,000 residents through the utility it owns. Griffin offered customers only a seven-day period to pay past-due bills before cutting off their power — regardless of their health. After seven days passed, the city shut off Marsden’s power. She called her family, pleading with her relatives to lend her money. She cobbled together enough cash to pay the city, and her power was restored before the day ended. Her relief was short-lived. That spring, when Marsden again fell behind on her bill, she asked a Griffin employee to consider her need for consistent power due to her heart condition. But the employee warned her that her condition would not keep her from being disconnected for nonpayment. The following month, when she missed another due date, the city cut off her power — and did so multiple more times in the years that followed. Georgia is one of more than a dozen states that require certain utilities to delay disconnections for seriously ill customers for 60 days or more, according to a National Consumer Law Center report. But Georgia’s regulation does not apply to its nearly 100 small electric utilities. These utilities, which are largely overseen by local elected officials or nonprofit board members, can choose to immediately disconnect seriously ill residents who fail to pay their bills on time. Only a handful of states, including Wisconsin and New York, have oversight of municipal utilities and require them to protect seriously ill customers. As is the case in many states, no Georgia agency tracks how often utilities disconnect people who rely on electric-powered medical devices. ProPublica has identified examples of these kinds of shut-offs across the state. In the small south Georgia city of Fitzgerald, the municipally run utility shut off power eight times to a man receiving at-home dialysis treatment. Another utility in Palmetto, less than 25 miles southwest of downtown Atlanta, several times disconnected a woman reliant on a device to treat sleep apnea, even after she submitted a letter from her medical provider saying losing power could kill her. In the northeastern Atlanta suburbs, Lawrenceville’s utility disconnected a woman who used an oxygen concentrator to treat her chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, leading her son to file a complaint with the utility. “I didn’t know you could just keep shutting off power w a disabled person on oxygen,” he wrote.
Ad firm that marketed OxyContin agrees to $350M settlement --An advertising agency that helped develop a marketing strategy to sell opioids like OxyContin agreed to a $350 million national settlement, attorneys general announced Thursday. The settlement will be paid by Publicis Health, part of the French media conglomerate Publicis Groupe and one of the world’s largest health care advertising companies. It marks the first time an advertising company has reached a major settlement over the U.S. opioid epidemic. The settlement money will be divided among every state and will mostly be used to fund opioid abatement, treatment and prevention efforts. Publicis agreed to pay the entire settlement in the next two months, including $7 million that will be used for states’ legal fees. The agreement prohibits Publicis from accepting any future contracts related to the marketing or sale of opioids and requires it to make public hundreds of thousands of internal documents detailing its work in opioid promotion. According to a court filing, OxyContin maker Purdue Pharma was Publicis’s top opioid client from 2010 until 2019, and Publicis was Purdue’s No. 1 marketing partner. Publicis worked with Purdue to promote branded opioids OxyContin, Butrans and Hysingla. The office of New York Attorney General Letitia James (D), who co-led negotiations with Colorado Attorney General Phil Weiser (D), said Publicis was responsible for creating advertisements and materials, such as pamphlets and brochures, that promoted OxyContin as safe and unable to be abused. According to James, Publicis implemented Purdue Pharma’s “Evolve to Excellence” scheme, which targeted the doctors who prescribed the most OxyContin and flooded them with sales calls and marketing touting the “abuse-deterrent” aspects of OxyContin and promoted the benefits of increasing patients’ dosages. That campaign was developed for Purdue by the consulting firm McKinsey & Co. McKinsey has already agreed to pay nearly $1 billion in a series of settlements for its role in the opioid crisis. “No amount of money can compensate for lives lost and addiction suffered, but with this agreement, Publicis will cease their illegal behavior and pay $350 million to help our communities rebuild,” James said.
Study shows a drink before bed can cause reductions in REM sleep --A team of neuroscientists and sleep researchers at E.P. Bradley Hospital Sleep Research Laboratory, working with colleagues from Brown University and Providence VA Medical Center, has found that rather than improving sleep, consuming an alcoholic beverage before bed can cause a reduction in REM sleep. The group describes their sleep experiments in the journal Sleep.Prior research has shown that REM sleep takes up approximately 20% of a typical night's sleep, but is still important. Though scientists have not yet figured out the purpose of REM sleep, they do know that people who do not get enough can experience emotional problems, mental acuity difficulties and memory issues.In this new study, the researchers explored whether consumption of alcohol prior to sleep might have a positive or negative impact on sleep quality and REM sleep in particular. To find out, they recruited 30 adult volunteers who spent three consecutive days and nights in a sleep lab on two occasions, where their brains could be monitored as they slept.To assess the impact of having a nightcap before going to bed, the researchers served only a mixer (non-alcoholic ingredients typically used to make cocktails) on one of their stays, and a mixer with added alcohol on the other. Both times the drink was consumed one hour before the volunteer went to bed.The research team found that drinking just one alcoholic beverage led to an increase inslow-wave sleep across all three nights. It also decreased the duration of REM sleep. Overall, they found that the volunteers were able to fall asleep faster after consuming alcohol, but their quality of sleep suffered due to shortened REM periods.They also noted that drinking an alcoholic beverage on consecutive nights did not change the amount of REM sleep impacted—their body did not adapt to overcome the effects of alcohol. The team concludes that drinking even a small amount of alcohol before bed can adversely affect sleep quality.
Three fourths of adults have hidden infectious illness to work, travel, or socialize, surveys suggest -- Up to 75% of adults have concealed an infectious disease from others in order not to miss work, travel, or social events, according to a new study in Psychological Science. The article, by researchers at the University of Michigan, is based on four studies and surveys given to 4,110 survey participants. All surveys were given after March 2020, when the COVID-10 pandemic began, and initial survey participants included 399 university healthcare employees. Only 5% of participants across all studies said they had concealed a COVID-19 infection. In the first study, the researchers surveyed 399 university healthcare employees and 505 students and asked how often they actively covered up symptoms of infectious diseases from others, came to campus or work without telling others they were feeling ill, or falsified answers to mandatory symptom screening tools that the university had required for anyone using campus facilities.Eighty-five percent of students reported concealing a contagious illness, as well as 61% of healthcare workers. Only 8% of healthcare workers and 3% of students said they concealed illness due do a university policy requirement. Instead, almost all efforts at hiding were made because of not wanting to miss social engagements, school, or work."Thematic qualitative coding revealed that participants frequently concealed illness because their illness would conflict with their other social goals (e.g., going on a date); very infrequently they cited pressure from institutional policies (e.g., lack of paid time off) as a motivation for concealment," the authors wrote. The second study was conducted on August 1, 2023, and asked 946 participants how and when they would consider hiding an infectious illness—but not COVID-19. Participants said they would consider concealment when the illness was described as being moderately transmissible and as having mild symptoms. A third study of 603 participants showed that illness duration—whether long or short—was not a strong factor in concealment. The fourth study included surveying both healthy and sick participants. The authors found that healthy participants reported being more likely to conceal when the potential harm of their imagined illness was low than when it was high, as did currently sick participants. "Currently sick participants reported concealing more than participants who merely imagined being sick," the authors said. The authors said their findings revealed an insensitivity among most participants."Healthy people forecasted that they would be unlikely to hide harmful illnesses—those that spread easily and have severe symptoms—but actively sick people reported high levels of concealment regardless of how harmful their illness was to others," said Wilson N. Merrell, a doctoral candidate and lead author of the study, in a press release from the Association for Psychological Science, which publishes the journal.
Older US adults mull costs, COVID, work when deciding on elective surgery - A survey study of older Americans who considered undergoing elective surgery in the previous 5 years reveals that concerns about out-of-pocket (OOP) costs, COVID-19 exposure, and taking time from work dissuaded some from going ahead with the procedure. A survey For the study, published yesterday in JAMA Network Open, a University of Michigan–led team surveyed a nationally representative sample of adults aged 50 to 80 years through the University of Michigan National Poll on Heathy Aging via the National Opinion Research Center AmeriSpeak panel in August 2021. Of 2,110 participants, 53% were women; average age was 63.7 years. A total of 32% of the 2,110 adults said they considered having elective surgery in the past 5 years, with 67% of them following through. The most commonly considered procedures were major joint surgery (eg, hip or knee replacement; 18%), eye surgery (eg, cataract surgery; 12%), abdominal surgery (eg, hernia repair, gall bladder removal, hysterectomy; 10%), cosmetic surgery (9%), and foot or leg surgery (7%). Of the 676 participants who considered surgery, 64% indicated being very or somewhat concerned about pain or discomfort, and 57% worried about a difficult recovery. They were most commonly very concerned OOP costs (23%), exposure to COVID-19 at the hospital or surgery center (19%), and time needed off work (20%). Multivariable models showed that adults with those three concerns were less likely than others to undergo surgery. The study authors noted that the proportion of employed US adults aged 60 and older doubled from 2000 to 2020. "These findings highlight opportunities to support older adults who consider elective surgery so that these decisions can be based on clinical benefits, risks, and each patient’s goals and preferences," they wrote. "Future studies should seek to clarify the implications of surgery for employment status and job productivity, in addition to identifying workplace policies that facilitate or limit time off for recovery."
US government failure to protect frontline workers from COVID led to thousands of deaths, scientists say - Thousands of frontline workers may have survived the COVID-19 pandemic if the US regulatory system had better protected them, report the authors of an analysis published yesterday in BMJ. The study is the first in a series that discusses the lessons learned from COVID-19 and the steps needed to avert deaths in the next pandemic and improve public health. Frontline workers are those who couldn't work from home and thus were at higher risk of exposure to SARS-CoV-2. Black and Hispanic workers and immigrants make up high proportions of "essential" workers, or those in healthcare, meatpacking plants, agricultural production, and public transportation. "Federal policies on workplace exposure were developed to protect the supply chain of food or other vital products, or to prevent staff shortages at healthcare facilities, rather than to protect frontline workers from virus exposure," wrote the George Washington University–led study authors. "Some employers, with the support (and encouragement) of elected officials, put production and profits ahead of worker safety and health." The study authors said social, legal, and economic provisions for low-wage workers were weak even before the pandemic, noting that the United States is one of only six countries without a national paid sick-leave policy and the only country in the 37-nation Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development without a national health insurance program. Frontline workers "were more likely to have precarious work arrangements with unpredictable scheduling and less control over the conditions of work," they wrote. "This lack of underlying protections created a perfect storm for vulnerable workers that was only partially mitigated by emergency measures during the early stages of the pandemic." Governmental social and economic protections during the pandemic (eg, stimulus checks, expansion of the federal child tax credit) gave workers some financial relief and better access to health insurance and to COVID-19 testing and care, averting some infections, hospitalizations, and deaths, the authors said. But the US Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) continued to have limited authority. "On a national level, OSHA has only enough inspectors to visit every workplace once every 190 years," they wrote. "So many of the agency's standards are insufficiently protective that it has taken the unusual step of recommending that employers adhere to standards developed by other agencies and organisations." In addition, guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) promulgated the disproven idea that SARS-CoV-2 was primarily transmitted through droplets and didn't incorporate traditional OSHA strategies for controlling airborne exposures (eg, ventilation, air cleaning). "It is now clear that the CDC (as well as the World Health Organization) erred in clinging to the droplet dogma," the study authors wrote. "CDC's insistence that the virus could be controlled by limiting exposure to droplets through surgical masks, distancing, and handwashing contributed to OSHA's inability to promote optimal control measures." Workers also had very limited access to personal protective equipment (PPE) early in the pandemic and faced reprisal for complaining about the lack of protections. When OSHA received thousands of worker complaints, it responded to only a tiny proportion of them and levied small fines that the authors said likely had little deterrent effect. "And at least one other opportunity was completely lost," they wrote. "The US president has the authority under the Defense Production Act to order the expansion of production from the US industrial base. During the pandemic President Trump invoked this power only once, in April 2020, in an attempt to order the meatpacking plants to continue to operate. The act could—and should—have been used instead to deal with the shortage of PPE early in the pandemic."
New COVID studies show varied viral clearance time in patients with lower immunity --Two new studies show immune-compromised patients, including those with cancer and HIV, have varied times until they clear the virus, with some at increased risk for persistent COVID-19 infections. In the first study, published The Lancet Microbe, researchers assessed 150 immunocompromised patients with COVID-19 from five US healthcare systems in 2022, when the Omicron strain was dominant. The study authors wanted to measure how long the patients tested positive for COVID-19, as persistent infections had been widely reported by clinicians treating patients with compromised immune systems. Moreover, immunocompromised patients with persistent viruses have been considered a possible source of mutated variants. "We were specifically looking at who was at risk for prolonged infection, such that they never cleared the virus," said lead study author Adam Lauring, MD, PhD in a press release. "In contrast to a lot of case reports, we were finding that very few people had prolonged infection." Lauring’s team found that only 25% of patients tested positive on polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests for 21 days or longer after onset of illness, and only 8% tested positive for live virus for 21 days or longer. In all, the median time to last positive test overall was 9 days in immunocompromised patients.The investigators noted differences in viral clearance among the patients. Of the 150 participants, 59 had a solid organ transplant with T-cell immunosuppression. Among that group, only 1 patient had an infection lasting longer than 56 days.Participants living with HIV (5) and B-cell cancers (18) like leukemias and lymphomas were more likely to have prolonged infections.Patients with non–B-cell malignancy (23) and autoimmune or autoinflammatory conditions (45) had a shorter time to viral clearance, with the latter group experiencing the shortest time to last positive test, at 4 days.In patients with prolonged infections, there was limited evidence of dangerous virus mutations. The second study, published in Science Translational Medicine, from researchers at Mass General Brigham, also highlights varied risk of persistent COVID-19 infection among immunocompromised patients, with patients who were more severely immunocompromised more likely to have prolonged infections. "Our results highlight the finding that the risk of chronic SARS-CoV-2 infection is not uniform across immunosuppressive conditions and provide clarity on which immunosuppression conditions predispose individuals to delayed SARS-CoV-2 RNA and culture clearance as well as viral evolution," the authors wrote.The 31 patients included in the study who had immune suppression deemed to be not severe, including those with autoimmune diseases receiving anti-tumor necrosis factor treatment, had similar viral shedding dynamics to non-immunocompromised participants.In contrast, the median times to nasal SARS-CoV-2 RNA and culture clearance in people with severe immunosuppression were 72 and 40 days, respectively, the authors said.
Excess death due to COVID in immunosuppressed populations varies - Immunosuppressed patient populations, including cancer patients and those with HIV, have different rates of excess mortality attributed to COVID-19, according to an analysis of 99 studies published in the Journal of Infection.The study, which attempted to standardize a method for categorizing the immunosuppressed as a clinical risk group, found that solid-organ transplant recipients and patients undergoing cancer treatment had a higher risk of mortality than COVID-19 patients with healthy immune systems.The 99 studies included in the analysis were published between 2020 and 2022 and included 1,542,097 and 56,248,181 unique immunosuppressed and immunocompetent patients with COVID-19 infection, respectively. The odds ratio (OR) for mortality for solid-organ transplant recipients compared to immunocompetent patients was 2.12 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.50 to 2.99) and was 2.02 (95% CI, 1.69 to 2.42) for cancer patients.People with rheumatologic autoimmune diseases and HIV had an only slightly elevated mortality risk compared to immunocompetent patients (ORs, 1.28 and 1.20, respectively). The authors said the findings, "may prove beneficial for prioritising scarce medical resources including booster vaccine doses, novel therapeutics and passive forms of immunisation such as convalescent plasma and monoclonal antibody transfusion."
Among SARS-CoV-2 variants, Beta had highest death rate, meta-analysis suggests -A global meta-analysis published yesterday in theInternational Journal of Infectious Diseases estimates that the deadliest SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern (VOC) was Beta, followed by Gamma, Alpha, Delta, and Omicron, with variant-specific case-fatality rates (CFRs) ranging from 0.7% to 4.2%.While the CFR for Omicron was lowest, a French study late last year revealed that it was still four time higher than for seasonal flu.A team led by researchers from the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences in Beijing reviewed 112 epidemiologic studies on COVID-19's CFR published from January 2020 to March 2023. They then used a random-effects model to calculate the pooled CFRs during periods dominated by the five VOCs.Of the 112 studies, 31 were from Asia, 23 from Europe, 16 from Africa, 15 from North America, 15 from South America, and 12 from Oceania. The studies were cross-sectional (62), retrospective observational (36), cohort (10), and ecological (4)."While most mutations have minimal impact, certain ones significantly affect SARS-CoV-2′s clinical and epidemiological characteristics, including increased transmissibility, pathogenicity, and reduced vaccine effectiveness," the study authors wrote. "These changes have profoundly shaped COVID-19 outbreaks, posing challenges for global epidemic prevention and control."The wild-type virus had a CFR of 3.6%, with elevated rates in South America (5.5%), North America (4.8%), Asia (3.5%), and Europe (3.2%), while lower rates were seen in Africa (3.0%) and Oceania (1.8%).The Alpha variant had a CFR of 2.6% (4.4% in Asia, 1.4% in Europe, and 2.7% in North America). CFRs during the Beta and Gamma periods were 4.2% and 3.6%, respectively. During Delta, the CFR was 2.0%, with rates in Africa, South America, North America, and Oceania of 3.5%, 2.8%, 2.5%, and 2.1%, respectively, while Asia (1.5%) and Europe (1.1%) had below-average rates.The researchers noted that the CFRs in Europe and North America during the Alpha period were lower than those during the wild-type period, while the opposite was seen in Asia. "A credible explanation for this was that European and North American countries had better monitoring and testing capacity of cases in the early stages of the epidemic, especially higher availability of identifying severe cases which resulted in more deaths attributed to COVID-19," they wrote. The CFR was lowest during the Omicron period (0.7%), with higher rates in Africa (1.7%) and Oceania (1.1%) and lower rates on other continents (less than 1%). By Omicron subvariant, CFRs were 1.0% for BA.1, 0.2% for BA.2, and 0.4% for BA.5.
Study: Cognitive slowing is associated with long COVID -In an attempt to establish a definitive objective cognitive marker for PCC, or post-COVID-19 condition, researchers tested long COVID patients in Germany and the United Kingdom with cognitive speed tests, and found long COVID patients have a significant lag, suggesting cognitive slowing. The study, published yesterday in eClincialMedicine, was based on findings on an initial 194 long COVID patient seen at a PCC clinic in Germany. Findings were then replicated in a follow up COVID clinic in the United Kingdom. All study participants had one or more symptoms of PCC at least 12 weeks following a lab-confirmed COVID-19 infection. They were compared to two control groups, one group that had never had a COVID-19 infection and one group that had COVID-19 12 or more weeks prior but no evidence of PCC. Cases and controls completed the same series of computer-based cognitive tests, which measured reaction time and number vigilance. They also completed questionaries about perceived PCC symptoms and mental health. The average reaction time (RT) for healthy controls (both no-COVID and no-PCC groups) was 0.34 seconds, but patients with PCC responded significantly more slowly, with a mean of 0.49 seconds, the authors said. More than half (53.5%) of patients with PCC had a response speed slower than 2 standard deviations from the control mean. There was not a significant correlation between the severity of mental health symptoms and chronic post-COVID cognitive deficit. "The present study reported a significant psychomotor slowing in individuals diagnosed with PCC," the authors said. "This might be an important factor contributing to some of the cognitive impairments reported in patients with PCC."
Racial minorities have greater long-term harms from COVID-19, data show -- A longitudinal study yesterday in Frontiers in Public Health shows Black, Indigenous, People of Color (BIPOC) COVID-19 patients in America had greater post-COVID-19 burdens than non-Hispanic, white peers. The long-term negative consequences were seen in health status, activity level and missed work, despite White and BIPOC patients having similar initial symptoms of infections. The findings are part of the ongoing INSPIRE study, a collaboration of eight major academic medical centers looking at the long-term effects of COVID-19. "While we don’t know what caused these different impacts, we know that these populations can have a harder time accessing health care, which may complicate their recovery," said study author Kari Stephens, PhD, of the University of Washington School of Medicine in a University of Washington press release on the study.The study was based on self-reported differences in symptoms and health-related impacts 3 and 6 months after the first SARS-CoV-2 infection documented from December 2020 to July 2022. Included were 2,402 adults with COVID-19 and 759 negative controls.Fourteen percent of COVID-19 positive participants were Hispanic, 11.0% were Asian, 7.9% were Black, 9.9% were other/multiple races, and 71.1% were White.Surveys included a list of 22 symptoms, including fatigue and shortness of breath.At 3 months, Hispanic participants were more likely than non-Hispanic participants to report fair or poor health (odds ratio [OR], 1.94; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.36 to 2.78) and much less reduced activity (OR, 2.23; 95% CI, 1.38 to 3.61). But by 6 months, differences by ethnicity were not present among Hispanics. At 3 months, Asian participants were more likely to report fair/poor health at the same rate as White participants, but at 6 months Asians were more likely to report poor health. At 3 months, reports of more than 5 missed workdays was similar across all race groups. But by 6 months, reports of missed work were much higher among Black participants. Compared to White respondents, Black respondents who had COVID 6 months prior were almost three times as likely to report missed work (OR 2.83; 95% CI, 1.60 to 5.00).
Some Economic Effects of the Ongoing Covid Pandemic - by Lambert Strether - NC seems not have had a round-up on the economic effects of the Covid pandemic recently. (Most of our work on this topic seems to have been done in 2020 and 2021, close to the Before Times. This article provides a useful summary of data from that time.). So, despite the crippling disability of not knowing much about mainstream macro, I thought I would undertake the task. A caveat: As with so much that is important, we don’t know very much. There is much we do not know simply because of time lags in data collection and publishing. We would know more if governments and public health establishments, at least in the West, and certainly the Anglosphere, hadn’t deliberately vandalized our Covid data collection capabilitities. We would also know more if the press and officialdom didn’t throw up their hands and exclaim “‘Tis a mystery!” at every encounter with immune dysregulation or loss of executive function, but instead investigated. We will also know more as the course of the pandemic continues, as it seems likely to do, and for some time. So this will in no sense be an exhaustive or even an expert post, but I hope it will serve you to at least create a coherent narrative about where we are, and even, perhaps, what to expect. And since I’m dependent now on the horridly crapified Google, I invite readers with sources I’ve missed to add them in comments. I’ll begin with global economic effects, then move to global and country studies, most of which will be expressed in dollar terms (or other currency). Then I will look at the economic effects of interventions, pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical. I will move to individual aspects of Covid, with particular focus on the labor market. Then I will move on to “belief scarring” and mortality. I won’t be doing a lot of analysis; just trying the get my arms round the fact set. Imagine me emptying out a box of index cards! The World Bank, in “Rebuilding economies after COVID-19: Will countries recover” (September 2023), presents this handy chart, comparing Before Time GDP projections to today’s: Summarizing:But COVID-19 caused the deepest global recession in decades, reducing global GDP by 3.1 percent in 2020. Today, 95 percent of people live in countries with lower GDP growth than forecast before the pandemic.From Statista, “Impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the global economy – Statistics & Facts” (2024):The global COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic had severe negative impacts on the global economy. During 2020, the world’s collective gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 3.4 percent. To put this number in perspective, global GDP reached 84.9 trillion U.S. dollars in 2020 – meaning that a 3.4 percent drop in economic growth results in over two trillion U.S. dollars of lost economic output. However, the global economy quickly recovered from the initial shock, reaching positive growth levels again in 2021…. As far as industries:The COVID-19 pandemic had a varied impact on different sectors and industries. As countries around the world closed their borders and imposed travel restrictions, especially the [superspreading –lambert] travel and tourism industry was heavily affected. The travel restrictions led to a sharp decrease in the number of flights worldwide. On the other hand, the internet trade boomed as an increasing number of people either chose or were forced to buy their non-essential goods online, as retailers were forced to close their shops during the pandemic. For instance, Amazon’s net sales revenue reached new records both in 2020 and in 2021, a trend that continued into 2022. Now to countries; mostly the United States, to be fair, due to the limitations of this temporally pressed researcher. For the United States, from Economic Modelling, “Macroeconomic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic” (March 2023), the Introduction: COVID-19 has had major consequences for the economy of the United States. Several studies have estimated its total impacts on GDP in the trillions of dollars, even before the Delta and Omicron variants ran their course (del Rio-Chanona et al., 2020; Dixon et al., 2020; Ludvigson et al., 2020; Thunström et al., 2020; Walmsley et al., 2021b). The pandemic’s total economic impacts are estimated to be twice as great as those of the Great Recession, 20 times greater than the 2001 World Trade Center attacks, and 40 times greater than any natural disaster that befell the country in this century (Rose, 2021). The more than 1,000,000 COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. through December 2022 (CDC, 2022), are greater than the U.S. death toll over the past four decades of the HIV/AIDS epidemic of approximately 700,000 people (KFF, 2021) and U.S. deaths from the Spanish Flu a century ago of approximately 675,000 people (CDC, 2020h). U.S. deaths from COVID-19 are more than nine times the country’s death toll from the influenza pandemic of 1957–1958 (CDC, 2020h) and the Hong Kong flu in 1968 (CDC, 2020h).The authors estimate the total impact nets out at $14 trillion. Given the litany of horrors in the Introduction, I’m not sure whether I care if it’s $12 trillion or $24; it’s real money no matter how you look at it.The numbers are also enormous for Long Covid alone. From David Cutler, “The Economic Cost of Long COVID: An Update” (2022):
US flu markers show hint of a second wind - After declining trends over the past few weeks, flu activity rose in some parts of the country, while COVID-19 and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) levels continued overall declines, according to the latest updates today from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Though flu indicators declined following the winter holidays, the CDC has said that it is watching for a second peak that sometimes occurs after the winter holidays. In its respiratory virus snapshot, the CDC said some regions are seeing rising flu indicators, especially in the Midwest and South-Central regions. Also, the percentage of respiratory samples that were positive for flu at clinical labs rose last week to 16.2%, compared to 14.2% the previous week, the CDC said in its weekly flu update. Influenza A is still dominant, with 60.4% of subtyped samples belonging to the 2009 H1N1 subtype. There were increases in the percentages of H3N2 and influenza B detections compared to the previous week. Outpatient visits for flulike illness held steady and have been above the national baseline since November. However, CDC surveillance shows a rise for one age-group: people ages 5 to 24 years.Eight more pediatric flu deaths were reported, lifting the season's total to 65. The deaths all occurred in January. Four were linked to influenza A, and four involved influenza B. Overall deaths from flu declined slightly compared to the week before. Most COVID markers declined last week, except for deaths, which held steady. Hospitalizations for COVID, one of the CDC's main severity indicators, decreased by 10.9% compared to the previous week. Among early indicators, test positivity declined 4.6% and it at 6.3% nationally. However, levels were a bit higher in the Midwest, South, and parts of the Northeast. Emergency department visits dropped 11% compared to the previous week and remain highest for infants and seniors.The CDC's wastewater tracking shows that virus detection levels are high, down from "very high" the week before. Meanwhile, Biobot wastewater tracking shows that a steady decline in SARS-CoV-2 detections since late December has slowed, with the western region showing a slight increase.In its every-other-week variant projections, the CDC said JN.1 continued to expand its dominance and now makes up 93.1% of sequenced samples, up from 84.3% in its last update. Earlier this week, South African virus sequencing experts identified a new lineage from samples in South Africa that has more than 100 mutations. Tulio de Oliveira, PhD, who directs South Africa's Centre for Epidemic Response and Innovation and is also deputy director of the Wellcome Sanger Institute Genomic Surveillance Unit, said on X (formerly Twitter) that the lineage is the most divergent one identified this year.The same group in South Africa was the first to identify the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant.Scientists have designated the new variant as BA.2.87.The lineage has been found in eight samples from two different provinces between September and November. It is distinct from currently circulating Omicron lineages and shows some diversity in the samples collected over a 10-week period.De Oliveira said enhanced genetic surveillance shows very few signs that the new variant is spreading widely or replacing current lineages. He added that work is under way to assess potential transmissibility and pathogenicity.The CDC said RSV activity has declined across many parts of the nation. Hospitalizations, still elevated, are declining in young children, but they remain elevated in older adults. In its vaccination updates, the CDC estimated that 20.8% of eligible adults ages 60 and older have received an RSV vaccine.
Why did NIH abruptly halt research on the harms of cell phone radiation? - In a shocking reversal, the National Toxicology Program (NTP) of the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences has quietly disclosed that it will stop studying the biological or environmental impacts of cell phone radiofrequency radiation.This decision comes despite results from the program’s carefully engineered and reviewed decade-long $30 million animal studies that found cancer, heart damage and DNA damage associated with exposure to cell phone radiofrequency radiation at levels comparable to those experienced by Americans today. The sudden end of civilian government efforts to study potential health impacts of wireless radiation constitutes a glaring abdication of responsibility. In contrast, the U.S. Department of Defense continues to study this problem.The European Union is providing multi-million dollar grants for multidisciplinary studies. The French government regularly monitors towers and phones and has recalled millions of phones for excessive radiation or other concerns, reflecting public concerns about both psychological and physiological impacts. In 2019, French Minsters passed an order ensuring phones had consumer information that included that teenagers and pregnant women avoid exposing their abdomens to wireless radiating devices.Just last year, the NTP declared on its 2023 fact sheet that it would perform follow-up studies to better understand the effects found in the long term animal studies. So what happened? At this juncture, it is unclear. Have the follow-up studies been completed already? Working with Swiss national engineering and U.S. government experts, the NTP had devised small-scale systems for exposing animals experimentally to controlled levels of wireless radiation. Yet results from these exposure systems have neither been publicly shared nor published.In a sudden and inexplicable turnaround of this long-scheduled and heavily reviewed workplan, the NTP now states that no more research on wireless radiation is planned due to costs of the studies and technical challenges. One must ask what is driving this flipflop. What has led to this sudden change in priorities, so that such an exponentially growing environmental exposure no longer merits study?The sole explanation from NTP for this turnaround raises more questions than it answers: “The research was technically challenging and more resource-intensive than expected. No additional [wireless radiation] studies are planned.”This defies modern medical and even casual public knowledge and concerns. For example, infertility clinics ask men what their habits are with respect to cell phones and other wireless devices. They tell them to take these phones off their bodies and out of their pockets because there is evidence of a correlation in rodents between wireless radiation exposure and low sperm count, poorer sperm quality, decreased testosterone and damage to the testes. Studies have also linked carrying a cell phone in one’s bra to increased risk of breast cancer. The list of adverse health effects associated with this exposure is long and our use of these devices growing constantly.
Exposure to even moderate levels of radon linked to increased risk of stroke - Radon is the second leading cause of lung cancer. Now a new study has found exposure to this invisible, odorless gas is also linked to an increased risk of stroke. The study, which examined exposures in middle-aged to older female participants, found an increased risk of stroke among those exposed to high and even moderate concentrations of the gas compared to those exposed to the lowest concentrations. The study, published in the January 31, 2024, online issue of Neurology, does not prove that exposure to radon causes stroke; it only shows an association. Radon is a naturally occurring radioactive gas produced when metals like uranium or radium break down in rocks and soil. The gas can make its way into homes through cracks in basement walls and floors, construction joints and gaps around pipes. "Radon is an indoor air pollutant that can only be detected through testing that measures concentrations of the gas in homes," "Our research found an increased risk of stroke among participants exposed to radon above —and as many as two picocuries per liter (pCi/L) below—concentrations that usually trigger Environmental Protection Agency recommendations to install a home radon mitigation system." The study involved 158,910 female participants with an average age of 63 who did not have stroke at the start of the study. They were followed for an average of 13 years. During the study, there were 6,979 strokes among participants. To determine radon exposures, researchers linked participants' home addresses to radon concentration data from the U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The EPA recommends that average indoor radon concentrations do not exceed four picocuries per liter (pCi/L). For concentrations this high, the EPA recommends installing a radon mitigation system to lower radon levels in the home. In the group with the highest radon exposures, there were 349 strokes per 100,000 person-years compared to 343 strokes in the middle group and 333 strokes in group with the lowest exposure. Person-years represent both the number of people in the study and the amount of time each person spends in the study. After adjusting for factors such as smoking, diabetes and high blood pressure, researchers found participants in the highest group had a 14% increased risk of stroke compared to those in the lowest group. Those in the middle group had a 6% increased risk. "It's important to note that we found an increased stroke risk among those exposed to radon concentrations as much as two pCi/L below the current lung cancer-based threshold for recommending radon mitigation," said Whitsel. "More studies are needed to confirm our findings. Confirmation would present an opportunity to improve public health by addressing an emerging risk factor for stroke."
New Zealand to ban 'forever chemicals' in make-up - New Zealand is set to become one of the first countries to ban harmful "forever chemicals" from cosmetic products, environment watchdogs said Wednesday. The Environmental Protection Authority said it will ban long-lasting substances perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl—known as PFAS or "forever chemicals"—by 2027. Found in items like nail polish, shaving cream, foundation, lipstick and mascara, PFAS make products more durable, spreadable and water-resistant. They are virtually indestructible, but can build up in the body over time and studies have linked them to cancer, infertility and environmental damage. "Our concern is they don't break down, either in the body or the environment," Shaun Presow from the Environmental Protection Authority told AFP on Wednesday. "As they accumulate, they have been linked to a range of harmful effects, like some cancers and hormonal issues." The cosmetics industry has until December 31, 2026 to phase out the use of the chemicals. New Zealand will also ban the use of PFAS in firefighting foams from December 2025. Some US states have adopted policies protecting people from PFAS and the European Union is mulling a ban, but Presow says New Zealand is among the first banning them from cosmetics. "We're one of the first countries to do it, we haven't seen many others yet," he added.
‘This story isn’t over’: Anniversary of East Palestine train crash brings little closure --It’s been a year since a train carrying toxic chemicals derailed in the town of East Palestine, Ohio, prompting short-lived evacuations and far longer-lasting concerns about the crash’s potential impacts on the environment and the surrounding community. Most of the national attention that followed the derailment has long since died down, but for residents of the area, closure remains elusive. While they’re thankful no one was injured or killed, they continue to worry about lingering contamination and how it could affect them. And they say state and local authorities have been cagey with answers about such potential ongoing threats, while major railroad safety legislation intended to prevent similar disasters has stalled in the Senate. The Norfolk Southern train that derailed on Feb. 3 included 20 cars carrying hazardous substances, including vinyl chloride, a toxic material used in the production of plastics. Local officials conducted a controlled burn days after the crash in hopes of avoiding an explosion, and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) began leading an ongoing cleanup effort later that month. Misti Allison, an East Palestine resident who works with the group Moms Clean Air Force, said the news cycle moving on has created an impression that the situation is more resolved than it is. While the cleanup process is largely completed at ground zero for the crash site, she said, other potential byproducts are a continual concern in the town, and their impacts may not be apparent for months or years. For example, she told The Hill, creek sediment sampling is still ongoing. Earlier in January, she added, a preliminary report indicated Sulphur Run, a creek that is a tributary for Leslie Run in East Palestine, remains contaminated. “Those creeks, they run through businesses and right by houses all through town,” said Allison, who has contributed op-eds to The Hill. “So it’s not like it’s just an isolated event.” Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) told The Hill he’s heard similar concerns from constituents in the area. “People are still concerned about the cleanup efforts, making sure you actually clean up the community, they’re worried about the long-term health consequences,” Vance said. Another common worry, he said, is the possible financial implications of the crash and the cleanup efforts. Although the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is requiring Norfolk Southern to cover cleanup costs, Vance said residents are also worried about medical costs, a potential drop in the value of their homes and the possibility of owing taxes on the assistance they’ve received due to “weird tax rules.” Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) told The Hill a tax bill passed by the House Wednesday night contains a provision ensuring assistance is not taxed. “There’s a lot of things we continue to do, I keep listening,” said Brown, who said he has visited the town eight times since the crash. Allison said the federal response over the past year has been “a little underwhelming,” noting that President Biden never issued an emergency declaration and saying Jim McPherson, the FEMA disaster recovery coordinator Biden appointed for the cleanup process, did not meet with residents beyond “cherry-picked” local leaders.
Do Food Dyes Make Kids Wild Out? - The Incidental Economist (Posts) (Healthcare Triage video with Dr Aaron Carroll) Avoiding certain food dyes to help improve a child’s behavioral issues is common advice, and not just on TikTok! Several doctors stand behind this recommendation as well. But several doctors also prescribe vitamin D, and that’s usually pretty useless according to the data. So where do the data stand on food dyes?
123 passengers sickened aboard cruise ship: CDC - More than 100 passengers and crew aboard a Queen Victoria cruise ship have fallen sick with a gastrointestinal illness, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported. The Cunard Cruise Line ship departed on Jan. 22 and is set to return on Feb. 12, the CDC’s Vessel Sanitation Program (VSP) said. Among the ship’s 1,824 total passengers, 123 have reported being ill during the voyage. Of the 967-person crew, 16 have also become ill. The cases are for the entire trip so far and don’t represent the number of active cases. The cause of the sickness is unknown, but symptoms include diarrhea and vomiting. According to the CDC, the cruise line and crew have reported increased cleaning and disinfection procedures that are in accordance with the ship’s outbreak prevention and response plan. Sick passengers and crew are isolating. “VSP is remotely monitoring the situation, including reviewing the ship’s outbreak response and sanitation procedures,” the notice said. According to ABC News, the cruise departed Fort Lauderdale, Fla., and is scheduled to go to San Francisco before ending in Honolulu. “Cunard confirms that a small number of guests had reported symptoms of gastrointestinal illness on board Queen Victoria. They immediately activated their enhanced health and safety protocols to ensure the wellbeing of all guests and crew on board,” the company said in an emailed statement. Measures taken so far have been effective, the company said.
Sewage spill forces closure of Long Beach swimming areas - A 47,000-gallon sewage spill forced the closure Friday of all recreational swimming areas at or near Colorado Lagoon and Alamitos Bay in Long Beach. According to the city, the spill stemmed from Los Angeles County Sanitation District equipment amid Thursday morning’s heavy rainfall. The city’s health officer, Dr. Anissa Davis, had already issued a rain advisory Thursday urging people to avoid swimming in the ocean following this week’s rains, which can carry contaminated debris and bacteria to the water. But the sewage spill has now mandated an ocean-water closure. “The city of Long Beach Health Department’s Recreational Water Quality health inspection team is monitoring water quality in the bay areas,” read a statement from the city. “Water monitoring will continue until results comply with State water quality standards.”
Quad high-dose flu vaccine tied to fewer hospitalizations in seniors -- Danish seniors who received the quadrivalent (four-strain) high-dose influenza vaccine (QIV-HD) had fewer hospitalizations for flu and other conditions compared to their peers who received the standard quadrivalent flu vaccine (QIV-SD), according to a post-hoc analysis published late last week in Clinical Microbiology and Infection. The trial took place during the Northern Hemisphere's 2021-22 flu season. Researchers enrolled 12,477 participants, 6,245 who received QIV-HD and 6,232 who got the QIV-SD. Overall mean age was 71.1, and 47.1% were women. Just over 20% had underlying cardiovascular disease. The researchers looked at a number of outcomes when comparing the two groups, beginning 14 days after vaccination until May 2022. Hospitalizations for pneumonia or influenza, respiratory hospitalizations, cardiorespiratory hospitalizations, cardiovascular hospitalizations, all-cause hospitalizations, and all-cause death. The investigators found that receiving QIV-HD was associated with lower rates of hospitalization for flu and pneumonia—10 events in the QIV-HD group compared with 33 in the QIV-SD group. Incidence rate ratio (IRR) was 0.30 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.14 to 0.64), meaning 60% greater protection. Trends favoring QIV-HD were observed over time, even before the flu season was under way. The team found the first statistically significant reductions in flu and pneumonia hospitalizations by the third calendar week of 2022. There were 5 such events in the QIV-HD group versus 15 in the QIV-SD group. IRR was 0.33 (95% CI, 0.11 to 0.94). The researchers concluded that the impact on less specific outcomes outside of influenza circulation periods supports earlier findings, including from similar trivalent (three-strain) flu vaccines, that suggest broader effects from flu vaccination. "Our exploratory results correspond to a number needed to treat of 65 (95% CI 35-840) persons vaccinated with QIV-HD compared with QIV-SD to prevent one additional all-cause hospitalisation per season," the authors wrote. "Further research is needed to confirm these hypothesis-generating findings."
High rate of healthcare-associated infections, broad-spectrum antibiotic use reported in Greek hospitals A 2022 point-prevalence survey (PPS) in Greek hospitals found rising rates of healthcare-associated infections (HAIs), high resistance to first-line antibiotics, and extensive use of broad-spectrum antibiotics, researchers reported last week in Antimicrobial Resistance and Infection Control. The cross-sectional study, conducted in 50 of the 126 hospitals of the Greek National Health Care system from October through December 2022, collected data on HAIs and antibiotic use among patients admitted before 8:00 am on the day of the survey. In a 2016-2017 PPS conducted by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Greece was among the countries with the highest prevalence of HAI (10%) and antibiotic use (55.6%). Of the 9,707 inpatients included in the study, 1,175 (12.1%) had an HAI and 5,376 (55.4%) were receiving at least on antibiotic. Lower respiratory tract (28.9%), bloodstream (20%), and urinary tract infections (13.1%) were the most common HAIs. Intensive care unit patients had the highest HAI (45.7%) and antibiotic use (71.3%) prevalence. Gram-negative bacteria were the most frequent source of HAIs (58.4% of total isolates), with Klebsiella (20.5%) and Acinetobacter (12.8%) the most frequently identified. The prevalence of resistance to first-level antibiotic markers was 69.3%. Among the 9,003 antimicrobials recorded, piperacillin-tazobactam (10.9%) and meropenem (7.7%) were the most frequently prescribed, and the ratio of broad-spectrum to narrow-spectrum antibiotics was 1.4. As defined by the World Health Organization's AWaRe (Access, Watch, and Reserve) classification system, Watch and Reserve antibiotics constituted 76.7% of all antibiotics prescribed. The WHO suggests that at least 60% of antibiotics consumed at the national level come from the Access group. "The 2022 PPS study highlights the significant challenge that HAIs pose in patient care in Greece," the study authors wrote. "It clearly indicates an increased burden of HAIs together with the emergence of difficult-to-treat pathogens in inpatients, as well as the extensive use of broad-spectrum antimicrobials." The authors say strengthening infection prevention and control and antimicrobial stewardship in these settings is essential.
Gut microbes influence susceptibility to, severity of viral respiratory infections, mouse study suggests --Georgia State University (GSU) researchers report that the susceptibility of mice to respiratory virus infections (RVIs), as well as the infections' severity, depends at least in part on the microbiota in their intestines.The researchers measured viral concentrations in the lungs several days after infection to assess how differences in microbe mix can influence RVI outcomes in mice with different intestinal microbiomes and in those differing only in the presence or lack of segmented filamentous bacteria (SFB). The mice had been bred in captivity under well-controlled conditions that ensured the absence of specific microbes.The findings were published yesterday in Cell Host & Microbe. SFB are gram-positive, spore forming bacteria found in the gut of rodents, fish, and chickens. A relative ofClostridium, these bacteria have been found to trigger an immune response in mice. Whether naturally acquired or introduced, SFB protected mice against flu, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and SARS-CoV-2 infection (COVID-19). The protection required the presence of alveolar macrophages (AMs; immune cells) in the lungs at baseline. In mice without SFB, AMs were quickly depleted as RVI progressed, but AMs in SFB-positive mice were intrinsically altered to prevent flu-triggered depletion and inflammatory signaling. AMs directly disabled influenza virus, and transfer of SFB-transformed AMs into SFB-negative mice reinforced SFB-mediated protection against flu. "These findings uncover complex interactions that mechanistically link the intestinal microbiota with AM functionality and RVI severity," the study authors wrote.Andrew Gewirtz, PhD, co-senior author and regents' professor in the Institute for Biomedical Sciences at GSU, said the team thinks it is highly unlikely that SFB is the only gut microbe that can alter AMs, and consequently, vulnerability to RVI. "Rather, we hypothesize that gut microbiota composition broadly influences proneness to respiratory virus infection," he said in a GSU news release. "Microbiota mediated programming of basally resident alveolar macrophages may not only influence the severity of acute respiratory virus infection, but may also be a long-term post-respiratory virus infection health determinant."
Syphilis continues steep rise in US—up 17%—as gonorrhea declines - In an annual data update on sexually transmitted infections (STIs), US syphilis infections continued an alarming steady rise, overshadowing glimmers of good news about a drop in gonorrhea cases—the first in nearly a decade—and a leveling out of chlamydia infections.The new data cover 2022, with 2.5 million cases reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), similar to the previous year. The CDC said the most alarming concerns are epidemics of syphilis and congenital syphilis, which point to an urgent need for swift innovations and collaboration between all STI-prevention groups."As STI services and related resources continue to rebound from the U.S. COVID-19 pandemic and mpox outbreak, we must act now to mobilize and execute a whole-of-nation approach if we hope to turn the tide," the CDC said. Syphilis cases at all life stages rose 17% in 2022 compared to the previous year, with congenital syphilis cases up sharply, by 30%, though slightly lower than the 32% rise the CDC saw in 2021. Since 2018, overall syphilis cases have risen nearly 79%, with congenital cases up a staggering 183.4% over the same period. Over the past decade, congenital syphilis cases have risen 937%.Congenital syphilis, which occurs when mothers pass the infection during pregnancy to their newborn, can result in serious health problems, including musculoskeletal deformities, neurologic problems, and metabolic dysfunction. Maternal infections can also lead to miscarriage, premature birth, or death.The CDC said there were 282 stillbirths and infant deaths in 2022, up sharply from 220 in 2021.In its analysis, the CDC said some states and demographic groups were hit harder than others. For example, Texas, California, Arizona, Florida, and Louisiana had 57% of all reported congenital syphilis cases. Nearly every state, however, reported at least one case.American Indian and Alaskan Native groups had the highest rates of congenital syphilis, with Black and African American people experiencing about 30% of cases. In an attached statement, Laura Bachmann, MD, MPH, acting director of the CDC's STI prevention division, said the STI field has reached a tipping point, and decades-old prevention strategies are no match for the worsening epidemic."There are no shortcuts, and we have to meet people where they are," she said. "Some people face tremendous barriers to STI prevention and health services. So, the most important work is often outside the clinic, whether it be reaching out to communities with testing, interviewing patients to offer services to their partners, or delivering treatment directly to someone." With the release of the new data this week, the National Association of County and City Health Officials (NACCHO) called for more testing and immediate preventive treatment, with local health departments identifying counties with high syphilis rates and setting up injectable treatment delivery programs. ”Additionally, rapid syphilis testing and treatment, especially during pregnancy, should be encouraged in all emergency departments, syringe service programs, prisons/jails, and maternal and child health programs," NACCHO said.
Cervical cancer plummets after HPV vaccination in Scotland, but rising disease rates in poor US counties --Two new studies describe rates of invasive cervical cancer among women vaccinated against human papillomavirus (HPV, the causative pathogen) dropping to zero in Scotland with early vaccination but rising in women in low-income US counties. Last week in the Journal of the National Cancer Institute, a Public Health Scotland–led team published the results of an observational study using data from the Scottish cervical cancer screening system on women born from January 1988 to June 1996 and immunized against HPV at age 12 or 13 years.Scotland rolled out its national HPV vaccine program in 2008, with routine immunization of girls aged 12 or 13 and an initial 2-year catchup for girls aged 14 to 18 years. Of 447,845 records extracted, 239 documented invasive cervical cancer. No invasive cervical cancer cases were documented in women vaccinated against HPV at age 12 or 13, regardless of the number of bivalent vaccine doses. Women vaccinated at age 14 to 22 with three doses had a significantly lower rate of cervical cancer than unvaccinated women (3.2 cases per 100,000 people; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.1 to 4.6) versus 8.4 per 100,000 (95% CI , 7.2 to 9.6), for an estimated vaccine effectiveness of 78% (95% CI, 66.2% to 86.4%). In total, 124,069 participants aged 14 to 18 years were vaccinated, as were 3,601 of those older than 18. Twenty-nine cases of cervical cancer were found in the two groups combined. Late-stage cervical cancer diagnoses and deaths have been rising among US low-income White and Black women, respectively, suggests a study published late last week in the International Journal of Cancer. The study, led by University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center researchers, analyzed surveillance, epidemiology, and results data to track hysterectomy-corrected cervical cancer rates from 2000 to 2019 and death rates from 2005 to 2019 by county-level income, race, and cancer stage at diagnosis. Annual earnings in the low-income counties ranged from $19,000 to $39,000. Over the study period, 119,018 cervical cancer cases were reported, with hysterectomy-corrected rates of 14.1 per 100,000 people in low-income counties and 9.5 per 100,000 in high-income counties. After an initial decline, after 2006, cervical cancer rates rose 1.0% per year (95% CI, 0.1% to 4.5%) among White women in low-income counties, with a statistically significant 4.4% per-year (95% CI, 1.7% to 7.5%) climb in late-stage cancer. Rates of cervical cancer death increased 1.1% per year (95% CI, −1.4% to 3.7%) in both White and Black women in low-income counties (2.9% per year; 95% CI, −2.3% to 18.2%), but trends weren't statistically significant. Among low-income Hispanic women, late-stage cervical cancer rates rose 1.5% per year (95% CI, −0.6% to 4.1%), but this trend wasn't statistically significant. "The findings are quite concerning," lead author Trisha Amboree, PhD, said in a center news release. "Despite decades of improvement due to the widespread implementation of cervical cancer prevention programs in the U.S., our study shows women may be facing disruptions along the screening and treatment continuum that are leading to more distant-stage cancers and, potentially, more deaths."
Quick takes: Measles in LA, global polio cases, raw milk Campylobacter outbreak | CIDRAP
- The Los Angeles County Department of Public Health yesterday announced that a measles infection has been confirmed in a resident who traveled through Los Angeles International Airport while infectious on January 25. The individual arrived on a Turkish Airlines flight at 5 pm that afternoon. Department officials warned that people who were at terminal B may have been exposed and said they and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) are notifying certain passengers on the flight who may have been exposed. The new detection comes just a week after the CDC warned health providers about a rise in measles importations in recent weeks, part of a global increase in measles activity.
- Six countries—mostly in Africa—reported more polio cases this week, all involving vaccine-derived viruses, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative said in its latest update. All were detected in 2023 and were added to that year's totals. In Africa, Chad reported two more cases involving circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2), both from the same province. The Democratic Republic of Congo reported one cVDPV2 case and three linked to circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 1 (cVDPV1). Guinea reported eight more cVDPV2 cases from four different provinces, and Niger and Nigeria both added a few more cVDPV2 cases. In the Middle East, Yemen reported one more cVDPV2 case, bringing its 2023 total to four.
- The Pennsylvania Department of Agriculture this week urged consumers to discard raw milk sold by Conoco View Dairy following reports of 11 Campylobacter infections in December and January in people and tests that confirmed Campylobacter in the dairy's products. The products were sold at the dairy's retail outlet in Perry County and were delivered to retail outlets, people's homes, and drop-off points.
Bangladesh reports 2 fatal Nipah virus cases - A media outlet in Bangladesh has reported that two men have died from Nipah virus infections, and local officials said both had consumed raw date juice—a known risk factor for contracting the disease—before they became ill. The cases are the country's first of the year. Nipah virus cases in Bangladesh follow a seasonal pattern, from December through May. The period coincides with the harvesting of palm sap and festivities related to the process. The sap can be contaminated by the saliva, urine, or droppings from fruit bats, which are thought to harbor the virus. The virus can then spread from person to person. According to the Dhaka-based Business Post, one of the patients is a 38-year-old man who was admitted to a hospital in Manikganj district on January 16. Two days later, when his condition worsened, he was transferred to a hospital in Dhaka, where his Nipah virus infection was confirmed. The other patient is a 27-year-old man from the same district who was initially treated with products from a local pharmacy after his symptoms began and was hospitalized in Dhaka after his condition deteriorated. Bangladesh reported 14 cases in 2023, 10 of them fatal, putting the country's deaths from the virus at their highest level in 5 years. Nipah virus infections have a high case-fatality rate, between 45% and 75%. There are no approved treatments or vaccines, and the World Health Organization has designated it a priority disease for research and development. The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations has also prioritized Nipah virus for countermeasure development.
Nontuberculous mycobacteria outbreak linked to Florida cosmetic surgery clinic --A cluster of nontuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) skin infections across nine states has been linked to cosmetic surgery procedures and gaps in infection control at a clinic in Florida, researchers with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Florida Department of Health (FDOH) reported last weekin Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.After a non-Florida resident was identified with an NTM infection following a cosmetic procedure at a south Florida surgical clinic in February 2023, the CDC and FDOH issued a national Epidemic Information Exchange notice in March 2023 to identify additional cases. The subsequent investigation identified an additional 15 NTM infections in patients from nine states who underwent procedures at the same clinic (clinic A). An additional four patients experienced signs and symptoms of post-surgical infection but lacked confirmatory lab results.The infections were caused by Mycbobacterium abscessus, a multidrug-resistant NTM known to cause skin and soft-tissue infections following cosmetic procedures. The 15 case-patients were all women in their early 30s whose symptoms began a median of 69 days after the procedure. Treatment required prolonged courses of oral and intravenous antibiotics. Clinic A was shut down, and although the source of the initial NTM infection was not identified, an infection control assessment at clinic B—which had the same surgeon, staff, and protocols as clinic A—by FDOH detected gaps in environmental cleaning practices, use of personal protective equipment, and surgical device disinfection."FDOH will use these findings to develop additional training for cosmetic surgery clinic staff members statewide to help prevent future outbreaks in this setting," the authors wrote, adding that healthcare providers should be on the lookout for extrapulmonary NTM when evaluating patients for postsurgical infection after cosmetic procedures.
Cambodia reports 2 more human H5N1 avian flu infections - Over the past few days, Cambodia's health ministry has reported two human H5N1 avian flu cases, which involve patients from difference provinces who were exposed to sick poultry before their symptoms began. The cases are the first of 2024 and raise the country's number of cases since early 2023 to eight. Though officials haven't announced genetic sequencing results on the viruses that infected the two new patients, the rash of earlier cases was caused by clade 2.3.2.1c, an older H5N1 strain that has circulated in the region for more than a decade. The clade is different from the 2.3.4.4b clade that is currently circulating widely in wild birds and poultry, with sporadic detections in mammals and people. Cambodia reported its last human H5N1 cases—one of them fatal—in October. Of the 6 cases reported from Cambodia in 2023, 4 patient died and 2 survived after mild illnesses, according to background information from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.The ministry announced the first case on January 26 in a statement, which was translated and posted by Avian Flu Diary (AFD), an infectious disease news blog. The patient is a 3-year-old boy from Prey Veng province in the country's southeast who is currently hospitalized in an intensive care unit (ICU).Investigators found that, 10 days earlier, dead chickens were reported around the boy's home.Yesterday, the ministry announced a second case, which involves a 69-year-old man from Siem Reap province in the northwest who is also hospitalized and was admitted to the ICU, according to another official statement translated and posted by AFD.The ministry said the man raises 50 to 60 chickens at his home and that poultry deaths have been occurring over the past 2 weeks.
China reports woman's death from H3N2-H10N5 flu coinfection - Chinese health officials today announce that a 63-year-old woman from Anhui province who died in late November was coinfected with H3N2 seasonal flu and a H10N5 flu virus that is genetically related to avian subtypes.The country's National Administration for Disease Control and Prevention posted the details on its website, which were translated and posted by FluTrackers, an infectious disease news message board. The woman's symptoms began on November 30, including cough, fever, and sore throat. Officials said she had underlying health conditions.A few days later, she was hospitalized after her condition worsened. On December 7, the patient was transferred to a hospital in Zhejiang province, where she died on December 16. During routine surveillance on samples from fatal cases, lab scientists in Zhejiang province isolated H3N2 seasonal flu, along with the H10N5 subtype. Repeat testing at the China Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirmed the findings.Investigations involving the close contacts that the woman had in the two provinces found no suspicious cases, and nucleic acid tests were negative for people who were screened. Scientists also conducted complete sequencing of the H10N5 virus and found that it was completely of poultry origin and doesn't have the capacity to easily infect humans. Officials said the woman's illness is an example of cross-species transmission from poultry to humans. The report did not say how the woman may have contracted the H10N5 virus. Officials said the overall health risk is low and there is no sign of human-to-human transmission. Hong Kong's Centre for Health Protection said today that it is monitoring developments with the case. "All novel influenza A infections, including H10N5, are notifiable infectious diseases in Hong Kong," it added. The woman's H10N5 infection appears to be the first known case in a human. Background information oninfluenza A virus subtypes from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said most H10 infections in people have involved exposure to infected poultry.
Avian flu infects more poultry in 3 states - Over the past few days, three states reported more highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in poultry, including a commercial turkey farm in Indiana, according to the latest updates from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS). Indiana's outbreak—its first since May 2023—occurred at a facility in Daviess County that had 13,100 turkeys. Elsewhere, Florida and Maine reported outbreaks involving backyard flocks. Florida's outbreak was in DeSoto County, and in Maine, the virus struck a location in Kennebec County. After a steady rise in poultry outbreak that began in early October, the pace of newly reported events since early January has slowed dramatically. So far this month, outbreaks have affected 2.02 million birds, compared to 11.47 million in December. In related developments, APHIS reported about 60 more H5N1 detections in wild birds, mostly waterfowl across a wide swath of the country, from the Southwest to the Northeast. Most were wild birds found dead, including a few raptors, a gull, and an American crow.
First H5N1 avian flu detected in Antarctic penguins -- Animal health officials have confirmed highly pathogenic H5N1 avian flu for the first time in penguins in the Antarctic region, part of a southward expansion of the virus. The samples that tested positive were from a gentoo penguin and two chicks found dead off the coast of the Falklands Islands, considered a subantarctic region that is off the southern tip of Argentina. According to the Falklands Islands government website, the gentoo penguins were found on the Sea Lion Islands and were among a group of about 35 adults and chicks that were found sick or dead. The Sea Lion Islands are the southernmost group of inhabited islands in the Falklands Islands archipelago. The Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research, in its list of avian flu detections in the subantarctic and Antarctic regions, noted the confirmation in gentoo penguins. It also reported a suspected detection in king penguins from Fortuna Bay on the northeast coast of South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands. The area is about 925 miles east of the Falklands Islands. The suspected sample in the king penguins follows the recent detection of the virus elephant seals and fur seals from South Georgia an the South Sandwich Islands, which marked the first detection in mammals from the subantarctic region.Animal health groups have warned about the risk of further spread of H5N1 to Antarctica's wildlife, especially given that some species, including penguins, live in dense colonies.
CWD found in another Wyoming deer hunt area -The Wyoming Game and Fish Department (WGFD) reports that chronic wasting disease (CWD) has been identified in a buck mule deer in Deer Hunt Area 90 for the first time.In a news release, WGFD said yesterday that the CWD case was confirmed in December.Deer Hunt Area 90 is in the Lander region and borders Deer Hunt Areas 36, 89, 97, 157, and 160, all of which have had CWD cases.CWD is a fatal neurodegenerative disease caused by infectious misfolded proteins called prions. While CWD is not yet known to infect humans, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention advises hunters to not consume meat from any animal that is obviously ill or tests positive for the disease
Addressing rural veterinary shortages is essential to maintaining animal and public health Veterinarians strengthen our domestic and global food supply — from the farm to the dinner table. They help ensure the health and welfare of animals that produce eggs, milk, meat, wool and other protein and fiber products. Timely veterinary care is key to detecting and preventing highly contagious animal diseases, as well as maintaining a healthy, safe food supply. For years, rural communities have struggled with inadequate access to livestock and public health veterinarians. Shortages of these essential veterinarians can leave our food supply and farm animals at risk, all while weakening the nation’s critical animal health infrastructure. This impacts both animal and human welfare. The number of United States Department of Agriculture-designated shortage areas continues to increase. In Fiscal Year 2024, we have the highest number of shortage areas ever, with 240 in 47 different states. These shortages jeopardize animal and public health, endanger the nation’s food supply and agricultural economy, and compromise our ability to prevent the introduction and spread of disease. More than 80 percent of veterinarians graduate with educational debt that averages more than $185,000. This has a major impact on the ability to attract veterinarians to food animal or public health medicine, as these career opportunities typically pay less than companion animal practices. This earning disparity can make it financially difficult or even impossible for veterinarians to pursue food animal and public health careers. We must act now to increase veterinary services in these underserved rural communities by incentivizing more food animal and public health veterinarians to practice in the areas most in need.
Cancer in the Corn Belt Sparks Actions to Fight Farm Fertilizer Nitrate Contamination -- Prompted by compelling research showing that cancer-related diseases and deaths are climbing as contamination from common agricultural chemicals and manure increases in key farm states, lawmakers and health officials in Iowa, Minnesota, and Nebraska are pursuing an array of new strategies aimed at reducing the risks to human health presented by the ongoing farm-related contamination.A top concern for lawmakers and health professionals in the three states is reducing exposure to nitrates, which form when nitrogen from fertilizer and manure combine with oxygen. Babies can suffer severe health problems when consuming nitrates in drinking water, and a growing body of literature indicates potential associations that include an increased risk of cancer.“It’s pretty obvious that in the areas where levels of nitrates and other agrichemicals in water are higher, you get more pediatric cancers and birth defects,” said Eleanor Rogan, chair of the Department of Environmental, Agricultural, and Occupational Health at the University of Nebraska Medical Center. “So that sort of tells you maybe you should do something about this and get the levels down.” Rogan is one of the leaders of Nebraska’s active epidemiological investigation into the state’s high rate of birth defects and pediatric cancers in areas where groundwater is contaminated with nitrates and atrazine, a weed killer. State lawmakers last year approved $2.5 million to add a pediatric oncologist unit to the team of scientists and medical specialists at the Medical Center charged in part with identifying and controlling the sources of cancer in the state’s children. In 2022, the legislature approved grants available to households and communities to develop new sources of uncontaminated groundwater.In Iowa, first-term Democratic state Rep. Austin Baeth, an internal medicine specialist from Des Moines, is leading a bipartisan effort in the state legislature to end what he calls “Iowa’s cancer crisis.” Working with Democrats and Republicans, Baeth says a number of bills are being drafted for legislative consideration later this year.“One of the policies we are pursuing is to dedicate state resources to cancer epidemiology for us to start to try to find some of those linkages to figure out what are the key drivers of our cancer rate,” Baeth said. “I have been successful in finding champions on the Republican side who share my concern.”A proposal that Baeth and colleagues are developing would fund an epidemiological research program to more precisely evaluate potential causes of cancer, identify the sources of exposure, the number of people sickened, and the places where excess cancers are developing. The research findings would complement the Iowa Cancer Consortium projectto better understand and make the case for limiting exposure to pesticides, commercial fertilizer, and animal manure used and generated by Iowa agriculture, among other environmental contaminants. “I cannot say that we conclusively know that nitrates are the cause of our exceedingly high cancer in Iowa,” said Baeth. “But certainly nitrates and other potential toxins in the water are on the list of potential culprits. We know that high nitrate concentrations are linked to cancer.”In Minnesota, state Rep. Rick Hansen, the Democratic chairman of the House Environment Committee, is introducing a bill this year that levies what he calls a “polluter pays” tax on commercial fertilizer to help families and communities develop clean sources of drinking water. Minnesota farms apply roughly 3 million tons of commercial fertilizer annually, according to state figures. A $1 per ton tax on fertilizer that now sells for $720 a ton would raise $3 million.Hansen’s proposal is a response to some of the nation’s worst nitrate contamination found in groundwater and drinking water wells in nine southeast Minnesota counties. In November, the US Environmental Protection Agencyordered Minnesota to address “imminent and substantial endangerment to the health” of thousands of residents who were being exposed to high levels of nitrate contamination in their drinking water.
Trees struggle to 'breathe' as climate warms, researchers find -- Trees are struggling to sequester heat-trapping carbon dioxide (CO2) in warmer, drier climates, meaning that they may no longer serve as a solution for offsetting humanity's carbon footprint as the planet continues to warm, according to a new study led by Penn State researchers. "We found that trees in warmer, drier climates are essentially coughing instead of breathing," said Max Lloyd, assistant research professor of geosciences at Penn State and lead author on the study recently published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. "They are sending CO2 right back into the atmosphere far more than trees in cooler, wetter conditions." Through the process of photosynthesis, trees remove CO2 from the atmosphere to produce new growth. Yet, under stressful conditions, trees release CO2 back to the atmosphere, a process called photorespiration. With an analysis of a global dataset of tree tissue, the research team demonstrated that the rate of photorespiration is up to two times higher in warmer climates, especially when water is limited. They found the threshold for this response in subtropical climates begins to be crossed when average daytime temperatures exceed roughly 68 degrees Fahrenheit and worsens as temperatures rise further. The results complicate a widespread belief about the role of plants in helping to draw down—or use—carbon from the atmosphere, providing new insight into how plants could adapt to climate change. Importantly, the researchers noted that as the climate warms, their findings demonstrate that plants could be less able to draw CO2 out of the atmosphere and assimilate the carbon necessary to help the planet cool down. "We have knocked this essential cycle off balance," Lloyd said. "Plants and climate are inextricably linked. The biggest draw-down of CO2 from our atmosphere is photosynthesizing organisms. It's a big knob on the composition of the atmosphere, so that means small changes have a large impact." Plants currently absorb an estimated 25% of the CO2 emitted by human activities each year, according to the U.S. Department of Energy, but this percentage is likely to decrease in the future as the climate warms, Lloyd explained, especially if water is scarcer. "When we think about climate futures, we predict that CO2 will go up, which in theory is good for plants because those are the molecules they breathe in," Lloyd said. "But we've shown there will be a tradeoff that some prevailing models don't account for. The world will be getting warmer, which means plants will be less able to draw down that CO2."
Catalonia’s worst drought in a century prompts declaration of drought emergency, new water restrictions, Spain - Barcelona and the wider region of Catalonia have declared a drought emergency following three consecutive years of insufficient rainfall, leading to reservoir levels falling critically low. Pere Aragones, the head of the regional government, announced immediate water-saving restrictions affecting six million people. With reservoirs at less than 16% capacity, the emergency is described as the worst drought Catalonia has experienced in a century, necessitating drastic reductions in water usage for residents, municipalities, farmers, and businesses alike. Spain’s second-largest city, Barcelona, and the surrounding Catalonia region have been placed under a drought emergency as of Thursday, February 1, 2024. This declaration by Catalonia’s regional government head, Pere Aragones, comes after a prolonged period of dryness, with reservoirs in the Mediterranean area dropping below 16% capacity, a critical threshold that has led to the implementation of stringent water-saving measures affecting an estimated six million individuals. Pere Aragones highlighted the gravity of the situation in a press briefing, stating, “Catalonia is suffering the worst drought in the last century… we have never faced such a long and intense drought since rainfall records began.” The emergency protocols aim to reduce the daily water allocation from 210 liters (55 gallons) to 200 liters (52 gallons) per person, with further reductions to 180 liters (47 gallons) and then 160 liters (42 gallons) if conditions worsen. These measures extend to Barcelona and 201 neighboring local councils as of Friday, February 2. In addition to household restrictions, public amenities and private usage face severe limitations. Fresh water filling of swimming pools is banned, except for certain sports-recognized uses, and car washing and public garden irrigation must now utilize recycled or groundwater sources, respectively. Should the drought persist, more drastic restrictions are poised to be enacted, including the shutdown of public showers in gyms and a total ban on watering public parks. The agricultural and industrial sectors are not exempt, facing an 80% reduction in water for crop irrigation, a significant increase from the 40% cut implemented last November. Industrial water usage must decrease by 25%, up from the previous 15% requirement. This crisis comes as Catalonia experiences rainfall amounts consistently below average for the past three years, exacerbating a drought condition that has now surpassed the duration of the 2008 dry spell. Xavier Sanchez Vila, from Catalonia’s Polytechnic University, warned of a “catastrophic” scenario if the drought continues for another year.
Devastating drought in Amazon result of climate crisis, study shows - The climate crisis turned the drought that struck the Amazon rainforest in 2023 into a devastating event, a study has found.The drought was the worst recorded in many places and hit the maximum “exceptional” level on the scientific scale. Without planet-warming emissions from the burning of oil, gas and coal, the drought would have been far less extreme, the analysis found.It also showed the drought was made 30 times more likely to happen by global heating. The return of the natural El Niño climate phenomenon is associated with drier conditions but played only a small role, the scientists said.The climate crisis is supercharging extreme weather across the planet, but the extreme Amazon drought is a stark and worrying example because the rainforest is already thought to be close to a tipping point into a drier state. This would result in a mass die-off of trees in the world’s most important store of carbon on land, releasing large amounts of CO2 and driving global temperatures even higher.Millions of people in the Amazon have been affected by the drought, with some rivers at their lowest levels for more than a century. There have been drinking water shortages, failed crops and power cuts, as hydroelectric plants dried up. The drought also worsened wildfires and high water temperatures were linked to a mass mortality of river life, including the deaths of more than 150 endangered pink river dolphins in a single week. “The Amazon could make or break our fight against climate change,” said Regina Rodrigues, a professor at the Federal University of Santa Catarina, Brazil, and part of the World Weather Attribution team that did the analysis. “If we protect the forest, it will continue to act as the world’s largest land-based carbon sink,” she said. “But if we allow human-induced emissions and deforestation to push it through the tipping point, it will release large amounts of CO2. We need to protect the rainforest and move away from fossil fuels as quickly as possible.”Simphiwe Stewart, a researcher at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre in the Netherlands and also part of the team, said: “Many communities living in the Amazon simply haven’t seen a drought like this before. People were forced to make huge journeys, dragging boats over dried up sections of river, to access food, medicine and other essential goods. It’s critical that government interventions are geared towards supporting communities to prepare for intensifying drought as the climate warms.”The analysis used peer-reviewed methods to compare droughts in today’s climate, which is 1.2C hotter, with those that would have occurred in a cooler, pre-industrial climate. The researchers looked in particular at “agricultural drought”, which accounts for both low rainfall and the evaporation of water from soils and plants driven by high temperatures.They found that global heating is decreasing rainfall and increasing heat in the Amazon, making the drought from June to November 2023 about 30 times more likely. El Niño was responsible for some of the reduced rainfall, but the high temperatures were almost entirely due to climate change, making it the primary driver of the drought.The extreme drought of 2023 would be expected about once every 50 years in today’s climate, the analysis estimated. But if global heating reaches 2C, such a severe drought would be expected every 13 years.
Lithium Liabilities: The untold threat to water in the rush to mine American lithium - An investigation from the Howard Center at Arizona State University uncovered the coming electric battery revolution in America will require billions upon billions of gallons of water to mine lithium. Many of the new U.S. mines will be located in the drought-prone American West.Nyle Pennington, a veteran water scientist who tracks groundwater for local governments, stopped at a monitoring station just one mile from America's only active commercial lithium mine. For years this well in Central Nevada typically held enough fresh water to reach the height of a three-story building, or about 30 feet. Pennington said it supplied much-needed nourishment for local cattle grazing under the Nevada sun."Bone dry," he said. "If that would have had water in it, you would have heard a pronounced, loud splash."Pennington, hired by the Central Nevada Regional Water Authority to monitor groundwater levels, has documented a disturbing pattern: underground water sources are dwindling and even disappearing altogether near the Silver Peak lithium mine, which records show has pumped nearly four billion gallons of water from underground every year since 2020. The Silver Peak mine denied it is impacting freshwater aquifers, but Pennington said the evidence he recorded shows otherwise. Silver Peak, which began mining lithium in the 1960s, won't remain the only U.S. lithium mine for long. The Howard Center for Investigative Journalism at Arizona State University has documented a surge of proposals to open new lithium mines that will, like Silver Peak, need billions of gallons of water to operate at a time when much of America's West is still emerging from a recent megadrought.As part of a Biden administration push to "build America's electric future," U.S. officials are encouraging the domestic expansion of lithium mines by dangling federal incentives. The effort would decrease U.S. reliance on China, which controls most of the U.S. supply chain for the lithium, a crucial mineral needed to power computers and military night-vision goggles.The Howard Center launched a comprehensive, national investigation of the impact the proposed new lithium mines predicted they will have on U.S. water supplies. Reporters reviewed tens of thousands of pages of state and federal environmental impact statements and mining operation reports filed by companies involved in every proposed lithium project in the U.S. that sought permits or reached the physical exploration phase by the end of December 2023.Among the investigation's key findings:
- There are no federal rules governing how much water any type of mine can consume.
- America's only operating commercial lithium mine is responsible for drying up nearby monitoring wells, according to reports from Nevada's largest water authority.
- The vast majority of proposed lithium projects responding to calls for increased supplies of domestic lithium are, in fact, owned by foreign companies or their subsidiaries.
- The majority of proposed lithium projects in the U.S. intend to take water from already stressed sources like the Colorado River or strained groundwater systems.
- Federal authority to stop mines from extracting minerals, even from public land, is weak. The Department of the Interior, in more than 20 years, has not rejected a mining permit due to the harm a mine could cause.
- The federal government approved plans for a future lithium mine, even after its operators disclosed it would create 272 million metric tons of 'tailings' containing toxic waste.
Angling Trust reveals 83% of rivers in England polluted with phosphates, U.K. - (video) The Angling Trust has released the first annual Water Quality Monitoring Network (WQMN) report, revealing that more than 80% of rivers in England are polluted with phosphates, posing an urgent need for action against waterway pollution. To counter this, the Angling Trust launched the WQMN pilot in May 2022, mobilizing a community of angler citizen scientists to monitor and understand the ongoing changes below the water’s surface. As of December 2023, this initiative has seen the active participation of 641 anglers from 240 angling clubs, monitoring pollution on 190 rivers across 60 catchments. The distribution of over 400 WQMN monitoring kits has led to the collection of more than 3 800 samples, revealing the extent of pollution in English waterways. The results from the first full year of WQMN testing, spanning July 2022 to July 2023, have been particularly concerning. A staggering 44% of site averages for phosphate failed the England-wide upper standard for good ecological status. Furthermore, 83% of the 163 rivers with regular samples failed to meet the phosphate standard for good ecological status in at least one sample. Regions like the Medway; Swale, Ure, Nidd, and Upper Ouse; Severn Middle Worcestershire; Loddon and its tributaries, among others, recorded the highest phosphate site averages. Jamie Cook, CEO of the Angling Trust, emphasized the crucial role of the WQMN initiative in empowering members to actively contribute to the preservation of local rivers. He pointed out the necessity of enhanced enforcement and updated laws to tackle the issue of river pollution and hold responsible parties accountable. The Angling Trust’s Head of Campaigns, Stuart Singleton White, stressed the need for stronger regulations to ensure effective investment in areas that would lead to significant environmental improvements. The Angling Trust plans to expand the WQMN, extending its reach to include still waters and estuaries for a more comprehensive understanding of pollution dynamics in English water courses.
Pacific storm douses California, flooding roads, in first of one-two punch (Reuters) - The first in a one-two punch of atmospheric river storms soaked Southern California with drenching rains on Thursday, triggering scattered flooding and rush-hour road closures in a precursor to a larger, wetter blast expected to sweep ashore over the weekend. The city of Long Beach, just south of Los Angeles, was one of the hardest-hit areas, with rainwater flooding a stretch of freeway and adjacent streets beneath a railroad bridge, leaving several vehicles submerged up to their roofs. At least one motorist had to be rescued after his car stalled in the middle of an inundated roadway, leaving him trapped in his vehicle as water steadily rose around him. Flooding, mud flows and rock slides forced the closure of numerous other roads across the region, including a busy tunnel passage that connects Pacific Coast Highway with a freeway in Santa Monica and a major freeway on-ramp in L.A.'s San Fernando Valley. The California Highway Patrol reported at least 50 spinouts and crashes in central Los Angeles Thursday morning, and firefighters rescued a man trapped in an Orange County flood-control channel, according to the Los Angeles City News Service. A flash-flood warning was posted for Los Angeles County and flood advisories were issued for San Diego and Orange counties. But the storm's center passed through the region fairly swiftly, minimizing flood threats, the National Weather Service reported. The storm first blew into Oregon and Northern California on Wednesday and spread south, blasting the San Francisco Bay area with intense rains and strong, gusty winds. Heavy snow fell in the higher-elevations of California's Sierra Nevada range. A second, more potent storm was forecast to roll into California late Saturday and Sunday, bringing high winds back to the northern part of the state and much heavier downpours in the south, while dumping yet more snow in the mountains. "This system will likely produce 24 to 36 hours (or more) of continuous rain," the weather service said in a forecast notice. Early estimates call for widespread rainfall totals of 2-4 inches (5-10 cm) from Sunday through Wednesday, and likely twice that in some foothill and low-elevation mountain areas, forecasters added. Both storms formed from vast airborne currents of dense moisture called atmospheric rivers. They also fit the definition of a storm system known as a "Pineapple Express," drawing on especially warm, subtropical waters around the Hawaiian islands. A series of about a dozen atmospheric river storms lashed California in rapid succession last winter, causing mass evacuations, power outages, levee breaches and road closures in a state long preoccupied with drought and wildfires. At least 20 people perished in those storms, which nevertheless helped break the grip of a years-long drought in California.
Medicane “Nikolai” (Avgi) makes landfall in Israel - Medicane “Nikolai” — internationally known as Storm Avgi — formed during the afternoon hours (UTC) of February 1, 2024, near the coast of Egypt as the first medicane of the year. Before making landfall in Israel on February 2, the storm brought heavy rain and snow to parts of Greece and Cyprus. The Mediterranean Cyclone Center (MCC) confirmed that the system, which met the criteria for a medicane at 18:00 UTC on February 1, exhibited maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h (30 mph) and a minimum central pressure of 1 016 hPa as it approached the coast. After originating off Cyprus and taking a looping trajectory, Nikolai reached its southernmost point before steering east towards Israel. Despite limited time for intensification, Nikolai made landfall with winds of approximately 55 km/h (34 mph). The storm showcased well-organized convection bands and an intermittent eye-feature, with earlier ASCAT data suggesting winds were around 46 km/h (29 mph). Before reaching medicane status, Storm Avgi impacted Greece on Sunday, January 28, with heavy snowfall and significant temperature drops. Avgi made landfall in Cyprus on January 30, with up to 100 mm (4 inches) of rain expected in parts of the island. According to the MCC, the storm is expected to dissipate over land by 00:00 UTC on February 3. “We have already “got used” to the rains in the current rain system that has been going on for over a week and a half, but the last night was the windiest in this system mainly in the area of Gush Dan, Sharon, and Ono Beak,” Israeli Meteorological Service said early February 2. Since yesterday evening, 76 mm (3 inches) of rain has been measured at Kfar HaYarok station, 73 mm (2.9 inches) in Bik’at HaYarden, and 71 mm (2.8 inches) in Horshim, southeastern Sharon.
China issues warning for strongest winter weather since 2009 during Spring Festival travel - Amid the ongoing Spring Festival travel rush, China faces significant weather challenges with the National Meteorological Center issuing a blue alert for heavy snowfall in several provinces. China’s National Meteorological Center renewed a blue alert on Wednesday, January 31, 2024, for heavy snow in parts of the country. From Wednesday morning to Thursday morning, regions including Shaanxi, Shanxi, Hebei, Henan, Shandong, and Jiangsu are expected to experience snowstorms, with snowfall ranging from 2 cm to 5 cm (0.8 – 2 inches). This weather event is particularly significant during the ongoing Spring Festival travel rush, known as “chunyun,” a period when millions travel to reunite with family. Authorities have been advised to prepare for the impacts of extensive rain, snow, and freezing weather, which could affect roads, railways, electricity, and telecommunications. The Ministry of Emergency Management highlighted the severity of the current weather pattern, stating it as the strongest winter weather since 2009. As a response, a Level IV emergency response, the least severe in China’s system, has been activated for provinces including Hebei, Shanxi, Jiangsu, Shandong, Henan, Hubei, and Shaanxi. Pedestrians and drivers are urged to exercise caution during the snowy conditions. The ministry has called on the affected provinces to strengthen rescue forces, arrange for supply allocation, prepare disaster relief in advance, make every effort to respond to emergencies, and strictly prevent casualties and major property losses.
China issues first Orange alert for freezing rain and snow since 2010 - China’s meteorological authority issued the country’s first orange alert for freezing since 2010 on February 1, 2024, signaling expanding and intensifying freezing rain and snow. The severe weather, affecting areas from Henan to Chongqing, poses significant challenges to transportation in central China amidst the Spring Festival travel rush. The alert forecasts an escalation in severe weather conditions across central China, with the situation expected to deteriorate further over the next three days. Regions earmarked for the most significant impact include southern Henan, Hubei, central and northern Anhui, northern Jiangsu, central and northern Hunan, eastern Guizhou, and southeastern Chongqing. This widespread weather event is anticipated to pose considerable challenges to transportation networks, potentially complicating the ongoing Spring Festival travel rush—a critical period for millions traveling to reunite with family. China’s three-tier, color-coded freezing warning system designates red as the most severe condition, followed by orange, and then yellow. Prior to this unprecedented orange alert, only two yellow alerts for freezing conditions had been issued: one in February 2013 and another in December of the previous year. A Blue alert for heavy snow was renewed on Wednesday, January 31, targeting areas such as Shaanxi, Shanxi, Hebei, Henan, Shandong, and Jiangsu. These regions are expected to experience snowstorms delivering between 2 cm to 5 cm (0.8 – 2 inches) of snow, exacerbating conditions during one of the busiest travel seasons in the country. The Ministry of Emergency Management has underscored the severity of the current weather patterns, comparing the strength of this winter’s conditions to the most severe weather experienced since 2009. In response, a Level IV emergency response has been activated for affected provinces including Hebei, Shanxi, Jiangsu, Shandong, Henan, Hubei, and Shaanxi. This level of response, while being the least severe in China’s system, calls for heightened caution among pedestrians and drivers alike. Authorities across the affected regions have been instructed to bolster rescue operations, secure supplies, and prepare for disaster relief efforts well in advance. The Ministry has emphasized the importance of a rigorous response to the emergency, aiming to mitigate the impact on roads, railways, electricity, and telecommunications infrastructure, and to strictly prevent casualties and significant property losses.
Record highs in Victoria follow coldest January 12 in 55 years, Canada - Victoria, the capital of the Canadian province of British Columbia, recorded its warmest January 29 ever with 15.3 °C (59.5 °F) at the Gonzales weather station, surpassing the previous record of 13.3 °C (55.9 °F) set in 1931. This record-breaking warmth follows closely on the heels of the coldest January 12 in 55 years. The city of Victoria recently witnessed a dramatic shift in weather conditions, setting new temperature records across the region. On January 29, the Gonzales weather station in Victoria recorded the highest temperature of 15.3 °C (59.5 °F), breaking the previous daily record high of 13.3 °C (55.9 °F) set in 1931. This record-breaking temperature follows the coldest January 12 recorded at the same station in 55 years, when temperatures plunged to -11.5 °C (11.3 °F). Other locations on Vancouver Island also experienced record-breaking warmth. The University of Victoria, Victoria Harbour, and the Hartland area all set new high-temperature records. In the Malahat region, the temperature reached 14.2 °C (57.6 °F), exceeding the previous record of 12.6 °C (54.7 °F) established in 1992. Duncan and Nanaimo, further up the Island, recorded even higher temperatures, both reaching 16.5 °C (61.7 °F). These temperatures broke the previous records of 14.5 °C (58.1 °F) and 14.6 °C (58.3 °F), respectively, both set in 1995. Environment Canada meteorologist Alyssa Charbonneau attributed the recent record warmth to a series of atmospheric rivers that brought warm air from the tropics, along with significant rainfall. This contrasts with the record cold in early January, which was due to an arctic front.
Saskatchewan shatters January temperature record with 21.1 °C (70 °F) in Maple Creek, Canada - On January 30, 2024, Maple Creek in Saskatchewan, Canada, recorded a temperature of 21.1 °C (70 °F), marking the warmest January day on record in the province and falling just 1.1 °C (2.0 °F) short of the national Canadian January record.The record-breaking warmth was part of an unusual pattern that affected the Prairies, leading to temperatures 10 – 20+ °C (18 – 36 °F) above normal. This abnormal warmth led to multiple records being shattered across Saskatchewan.The temperature recorded in Maple Creek on Tuesday, January 30 reached 21.1 °C (70 °F), setting not only a January record for the community but also a new monthly record for Saskatchewan. This reading was just 1.1 °C (2.0 °F) shy of the national monthly record of 22.2 °C (72.0 °F) set in Niagara Falls, Ontario, on January 26, 1950. The average high for January 30 in Maple Creek is -5 °C (23 °F).In Swift Current, Saskatchewan, a notable record was also set on Tuesday with a temperature of 17 °C (62.6 °F), establishing it as the highest temperature recorded for the month in that location.On January 28, just two days before Maple Creek’s record-setting day, 14 other communities in Saskatchewan had already broken their temperature records. These communities included Buffalo Narrows, Collins Bay, Coronach, and Cypress Hills Provincial Park among others.
- Buffalo Narrows: 7.8 °C (46.0 °F), previous record 5.1 °C (41.2 °F) set in 2000
- Collins Bay: 0.9 °C (33.6 °F), previous record -2.1 °C (28.2 °F) set in 2000
- Coronach: 8.9 °C (48.0 °F), previous record 8.5 °C (47.3 °F) set in 1988
- Cypress Hills Park: 10.7 °C (51.3 °F), previous record 10 °C (50.0 °F) set in 1992
- Key Lake: 3.3 °C (37.9 °F), previous record 1.5 °C (34.7 °F) set in 1989
- La Ronge: 4.7 °C (40.5 °F), previous record 4.4 °C (39.9 °F) set in 2001
- Meadow Lake: 5 °C (41.0 °F), previous record 4 °C (39.2 °F) set in 2011
- Regina: 4.7 °C (40.5 °F), previous record 3.9 °C (39.0 °F) set in 1909
- Rockglen: 6.3 °C (43.3 °F), previous record 5.2 °C (41.4 °F) set in 2017
- Southend Reindeer: 1.5 °C (34.7 °F), previous record 0 °C (32.0 °F) set in 2001
- Stony Rapids: -3.4 °C (25.9 °F), previous record -3.4 °C (25.9 °F) set in 2020
- Uranium City: -0.4 °C (31.3 °F), previous record -2.7 °C (27.1 °F) set in 2000
- Waskesiu Lake: 7.7 °C (45.9 °F), previous record 3.5 °C (38.3 °F) set in 1992
- Wynyard: 5.4 °C (41.7 °F), previous record 3.8 °C (38.8 °F) set in 2016
Even in Manitoba, the town of Churchill on Hudson Bay recorded an unusually high temperature of 14.5 °C (58.1 °F), contributing to the wave of record-breaking temperatures across the Canadian Prairies. According to The Weather Network meteorologists, the abnormal warmth building over the Prairies arrived courtesy of the same pattern responsible for drenching rains in British Columbia.
University of Iceland professor warns of lava flow proximity to Reykjavík - Þorvaldur Þórðarson, a professor of volcanology at the University of Iceland, has expressed concerns about potential volcanic activity under Húsfellsbruna, a vast lava field situated between Bláfjalla and Heiðmerkur. His observations, published in Morgunblaðin, stem from recent seismic activity in the area, suggesting that the Brennisteinsfjöll volcanic system, located near the Reykjanes Peninsula, may have been activated. The series of earthquakes in this region has been interpreted as a sign of possible tension build-up at the bottom of the earth’s crust or magma accumulation in the molten rock reservoirs beneath the solid crust. This geological phenomenon is particularly significant considering that during the last eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula, Húsfellsbruna was the lava that flowed closest to the capital city, Reykjavík. Professor Þórðarson emphasized the gravity of the situation, stating that it is not out of the question for lava from this area to flow close to Reykjavík, potentially extending even further than during the last eruption. Given these risks, he advocates for the initiation of serious preventive measures and plans, stressing the importance of not relegating such measures to a secondary priority. He also recalled a historical precedent, noting that the last time an eruption occurred this far north on Brennisteinsfjallariinn, lava nearly reached the sea at Straumsvík. On January 31, the Icelandic Meteorological Office (IMO) has published its analysis following the seismic activity in the region between Húsfell and Bláfjalla. About 20 earthquakes were recorded last weekend, with the most significant occurring just after noon on Sunday, January 28. The largest earthquakes registered magnitudes of 3.1 at 05:28 UTC on Saturday, January 27, and 2.9 at 12:32 UTC on Sunday, January 28. Notably, one of these quakes was felt in Breiðholt. Since Monday, January 29, seismic activity in the area has been minimal, with only two small earthquakes recorded, both below magnitude 1.0. While the area has been quiet since then, there remains a possibility that the activity could intensify again. The quakes are located in Húsfellsbruna, north of a fault known as the Hvalhnúksmisgengið. Kristín Jónsdóttir, head of the department at the Icelandic Meteorological Office, clarified that there are no measurements indicating magma accumulation under the Brennisteinsfjöll. She stated that the seismic activity over the weekend is not attributed to magma movements, as observed in other regions like Fagradalsfjall and north of Grindavík. The earthquake series between Húsfell and Bláfjalla was linked to the known Hvalhnúksmisgengið fault. This area is prone to so-called bypass earthquakes, a phenomenon common in the South and the Reykjanes Peninsula. These earthquakes result from tectonic stresses accumulating as the North American and Eurasian Plates move past each other. Such tension is typically released in larger earthquakes, believed to occur on the peninsula roughly every 50 years. Given this pattern, another significant Brennisteinsfjall earthquake may be due. However, Jónsdóttir notes that no signs of land rise have been detected in the data, which would be indicative of magma gathering, as seen in areas like Svartsengi and Fagradalsfjall. She emphasizes the importance of remaining vigilant, as earthquakes originating from the Hvalhnúks Fault are the largest recorded in the Reykjanes Peninsula. In the event of a magnitude 6 earthquake on the Hvalhnúks fault, it would be felt widely across the country, including the capital area. The main concern would be sharp movements of joints, with the potential to move furniture. However, building standards in the region are designed to withstand such movements without significant weakening of structures.
Iceland builds massive dykes to shield against volcanic lava flows - Icelanders are building massive dykes to protect against possible lava flows from reactivated volcanoes near the capital, Reykjavik. The six volcanic systems, active for the first time in nearly 800 years, pose a significant threat to the Reykjanes peninsula, prompting around-the-clock construction efforts to safeguard homes and a crucial power plant. The Reykjanes peninsula, home to 30 000 people or nearly 8% of Iceland’s population, is under threat from six volcanic systems forecasted to remain active for up to three centuries. The urgency of the situation has led to the deployment of nearly 100 bulldozers, excavators, and haul trucks, working tirelessly around the Svartsengi geothermal power plant. Kristinn Hardarson, leading operations at HS Orka, the energy company that owns Svartsengi, outlined the scale of the operation, which involves the use of 560 000 m3 of gravel and solidified lava rock. This material, sufficient to fill 20 000 trucks, is being strategically placed to divert the lava flows away from critical areas rather than attempting to halt them entirely—a method recommended by Vidir Reynisson, head of Iceland’s Civil Protection and Emergency Management, due to the natural tendency of lava to accumulate and overflow barriers if obstructed. The defensive efforts extend beyond Svartsengi to the nearby town of Grindavik, a vital fishing port with nearly 4 000 residents. The town faced evacuations in December ahead of the most recent eruption. Initial barriers constructed around Grindavik successfully diverted lava away from the town, but subsequent fissures on the opposite side of the barriers led to lava reaching and igniting several houses. The scale of the barriers is monumental, with the largest being approximately 40 m (130 feet) wide, 8 to 10 m (36 – 33 feet) high, and 4 m (13 feet) wide at the top. Completing the 7 km (4.3 miles) half-circle around Grindavik is expected to take six weeks, requiring roughly double the material used at Svartsengi. This endeavor reflects the lessons learned from previous attempts to control lava flows in Iceland and elsewhere, such as Italy and Hawaii, though those efforts were on a much smaller scale.Historically, Iceland has faced numerous volcanic eruptions, but the Reykjanes peninsula’s situation presents a unique challenge due to its proximity to populated areas and essential infrastructure. Previous defensive measures, like those undertaken on the island of Heimaey in 1973, have provided valuable experience in managing lava flows. Engineers are now refining the design of the barriers based on this experience, optimizing their height and steepness to ensure effectiveness. In addition to constructing physical barriers, the Department for Civil Protection is taking steps to secure underground and overland infrastructure. Hot water pipelines are being buried deeper, while power and telecom lines are being elevated to minimize the risk of damage from lava. Further protective measures include insulating pipelines and power cables.
Grindavík’s eruption risk increases with significant magma influx, Iceland - Updated findings as of February 1, 2024, show a heightened eruption risk near Grindavík, with about 6.5 million cubic meters (229 million cubic feet) of magma flowing into the Svartsengi chamber. Recent GPS data analysis reveals a significant influx of magma into the Svartsengi chamber, indicating a heightened probability of eruption similar to previous incidents. Scientists from the Icelandic Meteorological Office and the University of Iceland, after reviewing the data on February 1, estimate approximately 6.5 million cubic meters (229 million cubic feet) have entered the chamber, potentially leading to an eruption within the next two weeks, if not days. “This means that the probability of magma flow and eruption has increased,” the Icelandic Met Office said. Magma flows are always accompanied by increased micro-seismic activity, and it is most likely that there will be a warning for at least one hour on the eve of a volcanic eruption, which will most likely find its way to the magma tunnel that formed last November 10. Seismic activity over the past week mirrors the previous period, with nearly 200 earthquakes detected, primarily minor tremors below magnitude 1.0. The largest recorded quake was a magnitude 1.8, nearly 1 km (0.62 miles) south of Hagafell. The Norwegian Meteorological Agency’s updated hazard map highlights increased risk levels, notably area 3 (Sýlingarfell – Hagafell) now in red (high risk) and areas 2 and 6 in orange (considerable risk).
Q&A: How ‘slow slip’ earthquakes may be driven by deep hydraulic fracturing | UW News The Cascadia Subduction Zone is a massive geologic fault that last ruptured in January 1700. But while this fault has stayed quiet for centuries, it regularly generates small tremors that accompany gradual, nondisruptive movement along the fault.The tiny tremor events and slow slippage are known collectively as “episodic tremor and slip.” Seismic waves associated with these tremor events are recorded and tracked by the UW’s Pacific Northwest Seismic Network. Other groups track the associated slow motion of the plates using GPS measurements. These paired types of events occur regularly and seem to fluctuate with tidal cycles, but they originate deep underground and their cause has been mysterious.A pair of papers published Jan. 29 provides new confirmation of speculations about a cause of these events. Taken together, the papers show that fluids deep underground create fractures in the rock, and that this creates rumblings that match what we observe at the surface.Marine Denolle, an assistant professor of Earth and space sciences at the UW, and Joan Gomberg, an affiliate associate professor at the UW who is based with the U.S. Geological Survey, are co-authors on the AGU Advances paper about the experimental findings. [“The life and death of cracks” – Harvard University press release, Jan. 29, 2024] Denolle began advising lead author Congcong Yuan as a faculty member at Harvard before joining the UW faculty in 2022. Denolle and Gomberg sat down with UW News to answer some questions about the study, and what it means for the Cascadia region.
New Evidence Reveals Fossil Fuel Industry Sponsored Climate Science in 1954 – DeSmog --In 1955 in the wilds of Big Sur, a young Caltech researcher named Charles David Keeling gathered carbon dioxide samples among Northern California’s towering redwoods. Crawling out of his sleeping bag several times a night on research trips conducted over the course of 18 months, from January 1955 to June 1956, Keeling measured background levels of carbon dioxide across the western United States — at Big Sur, but also at desert and high mountain stations, in forests and grassland, above the city of Los Angeles, and over the waters of the Pacific Ocean. Keeling’s findings would lead him to conduct a separate series of experiments from the top of the Hawaiian volcano Mauna Loa resulting in the famous Keeling Curve — a visual depiction of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) caused by the burning of fossil fuels. His work underpins our understanding of manmade climate change. Unknown until now, however, is the fact that Keeling’s earliest research into carbon dioxide across the western U.S. was funded in part by the fossil fuel industry via a private foundation — and that in 1954 this foundation was informed of the potential impact of manmade carbon dioxide emissions on both the climate and human civilization. Newly discovered documents affirm that the automobile and petroleum industries funded early climate science Keeling conducted at the California Institute of Technology (Caltech) between 1954 and 1956. Records show that “oil and auto companies” sponsored the scientist’s research via an organization called the Southern California Air Pollution Foundation, formed in 1953 to tackle Los Angeles’s infamous smog. American Motors, Chrysler, Ford, and General Motors were among 18 automotive companies that gave money to the foundation. A 1959 internal U.S. Public Health Service memo also identifies the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Western Oil & Gas Association — the oldest petroleum trade association in the U.S., which is now known as the Western States Petroleum Association — as “major contributors to the funds of the Air Pollution Foundation.” Its Board of Trustees included top-level representatives from the Southern California Gas Company, the Southern California Edison Co., Chrysler, General Motors, and Union Oil (now Chevron). And from mid-1955, these trustees were also appraised of research projects by a seven-man “technical advisory committee,” which included a senior official from API as well as scientists from the Richfield Oil Corporation (now BP) and Chrysler. With the discovery of these Air Pollution Foundation documents, it is now possible to date the earliest sponsorship of climate science by the fossil fuel industry to 1954, approximately a quarter of a century before Exxon’s internal research program of the late 1970s. These new documents provide important evidence that the fossil fuel industry has been intricately connected to climate science from its earliest beginnings — not only as a driver of the greenhouse effect behind climate change, but also as a contributor to the scientific discoveries that would transform our understanding of humanity’s relationship with the Earth and its atmosphere. It’s important to know that the oil industry sponsored climate science research in the 1950s because it reveals a picture of a much more nuanced, closely connected world of science and the frontiers of scientific discovery than the oil industry has admitted to.In addition, despite being warned about the potential climate impacts of CO2 in 1954, 35 years later numerous members and sponsors of the Air Pollution Foundation (including API, the Automobile Manufacturers Association, Chevron, and BP) participated in a multi-million dollar campaign attacking climate policiesaimed at tackling global warming and promoting denial of the science they themselves had helped to fund. Previously unseen correspondence between Caltech and the Air Pollution Foundation shows that the potential climate impact of fossil-fuel-generated CO2 emissions was communicated to the foundation in November 1954. Caltech’s research proposal, sent to the foundation by Keeling’s research director, Samuel Epstein, emphasized both the potential impact on Earth’s climate of burning “coal and petroleum,” and the prospect of using newly developed carbon isotope analysis at Caltech to identify “changes in the atmosphere.” The “possible consequences of a changing concentration of the CO2 in the atmosphere with reference to climate … may ultimately prove of considerable significance to civilization,” Epstein wrote.
Carbon sequestration could begin in Ohio's Wayne National Forest - - The Biden administration is considering a rule change to allow carbon dioxide from air or industrial processes to be captured and stored in national parks. Under the proposal, carbon sequestration could begin in Ohio's Wayne National Forest. Opponents say the move is a historic reversal of U.S. Forest Service policy protecting public lands. Randi Pokladnik, retired environmental scientist and volunteer for Save Our Parks Ohio, said carbon capture operations require pipelines similar to those used in fracking. She said pipelines ferrying CO2 would have to run deep into forested areas or grasslands, where the gas would be injected into underground wells. "They have to modify the rules that they use right now, because right now, you can't do anything permanent in national forests or grasslands," Pokladnik explained. "If they store carbon in Class Six injection wells, that will be permanent storage." According to an Energy Department estimate, carbon capture and sequestration would require 96,000 miles of pipeline by 2050. Supporters of the rule change, including the Carbon Capture Coalition, argued geologic storage of carbon dioxide beneath federal lands would be an opportunity to expand the domestic carbon-management industry and help meet global climate obligations. Pokladnik contends a host of problems would come with dumping large amounts of carbon dioxide into forests and grasslands, including potential water contamination and degradation of local ecosystems. "It is not a way to address climate change, it's just another way to keep allowing the fossil fuel companies to run us off the road," Pokladnik contended. "Then, the fact that they want to do this on public lands."There is little evidence carbon capture is effective on a large scale. According to the Ohio River Valley Institute, carbon capture could cost the nation $100 billion per year, and would likely raise average household electricity rates by 25%.
Carbon Capture & Storage Coming to Ohio’s Wayne National Forest? -- There are federal lands in the Marcellus/Utica. Did you know that? The Wayne National Forest (WNF) is a patchwork of public and private mineral rights that covers over a quarter million acres of Appalachian foothills of southeastern Ohio. For years, the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) blocked new permits and drilling in WNF. During the Trump administration, the BLM began to auction off federal leases and permits (see our stories about BLM auction in WNF here). However, a federal judge blocked drilling in WNF in 2021, after Biden had seized control of the White House (see Federal Judge Blocks Permits to Drill in OH’s Wayne Natl Forest). Although drilling in WNF is blocked, the Bidenistas are considering a rule change to allow the drilling of carbon dioxide wells in national parks, including WNF.
Ohio environmental groups skeptical of carbon-capture rule for public lands - The Biden administration is considering a rule change to allow carbon dioxide from air or industrial processes to be captured and stored in national parks. Under the proposal, carbon sequestration could begin in Ohio's Wayne National Forest. Opponents say the move is a historic reversal of U.S. Forest Service policy protecting public lands. Randi Pokladnik, retired environmental scientist and volunteer for Save Our Parks Ohio, said carbon capture operations require pipelines similar to those used in fracking. She said pipelines ferrying CO2 would have to run deep into forested areas or grasslands, where the gas would be injected into underground wells. "They have to modify the rules that they use right now, because right now, you can't do anything permanent in national forests or grasslands," Pokladnik explained. "If they store carbon in Class Six injection wells, that will be permanent storage." According to an Energy Department estimate, carbon capture and sequestration would require 96,000 miles of pipeline by 2050. Supporters of the rule change, including the Carbon Capture Coalition, argued geologic storage of carbon dioxide beneath federal lands would be an opportunity to expand the domestic carbon-management industry and help meet global climate obligations. Pokladnik contends a host of problems would come with dumping large amounts of carbon dioxide into forests and grasslands, including potential water contamination and degradation of local ecosystems. "It is not a way to address climate change, it's just another way to keep allowing the fossil fuel companies to run us off the road," Pokladnik contended. "Then, the fact that they want to do this on public lands." There is little evidence carbon capture is effective on a large scale. According to the Ohio River Valley Institute, carbon capture could cost the nation $100 billion per year, and would likely raise average household electricity rates by 25%.
Is clean hydrogen a climate solution? Depends how it’s made — and used - Hydrogen may be the lightest element in the universe, but it could play a hefty role in decarbonizing the economy.If, that is, it’s produced and used with the climate in mind. Hydrogen is flexible: It can be made from coal, fossil gas or water and electricity. It can be used to fuel a car or make important chemicals like ammonia. The problem is that not all methods of production and end uses are good for the planet.Recent policy changes have made these concerns much more pressing. The U.S. aims to drive a massive scale-up from the scant supply of emissions-free hydrogen available today to 10million metric tons annually by 2030. To succeed, the government is wielding the most generous hydrogen production subsidy in the world: a tax credit called 45V for its section of the tax code.Access to the incentive will require producers to prove their hydrogen emits little to no carbon pollution. But enforcement remains uncertain, and there’s little guidance to govern the other half of the hydrogen equation: its end uses.In the best-case scenario, the tax credit would incentivize producers to make hydrogen that’s truly emissions-free for industries that can’t decarbonize without it, like fertilizer manufacturing. But in the worst-case scenario, 45V would spur the production of “clean” hydrogen that actually increases emissions, at great taxpayer expense, to be squandered on applications that could more efficiently decarbonize without it, like home heating.The climate promise and peril of hydrogen depend on how exactly this coming surge in production and procurement plays out.Globally, about 95 percent of hydrogen made today is done via a process known as steam methane reforming (SMR). In this approach, a producer heats water to form steam that’s then reacted with methane in fossil gas to generate pure hydrogen. Planet-warming carbon pollution is the byproduct.But there are ways to make hydrogen with low or no emissions. One method of producing so-called “green hydrogen” uses a device called an electrolyzer and carbon-free electricity to zap water and free hydrogen from oxygen. Another approach, producing so-called “blue hydrogen,” uses the traditional SMR process but captures and stores the carbon emissions that result. There’s no guarantee, however, that these two methods make clean hydrogen. The carbon footprint or intensity of green and blue hydrogen depends entirely on the nitty-gritty details of a given production plant, including where it sources its fuel from.
The clean hydrogen paradox -- “Electrify everything” has become something of a calling card for the energy transition, and for good reason: We can cut the carbon emissions of our homes, our cars and so much more by simply swapping fossil fuels for electricity generated by renewable energy. But we may not be able to electrify everything. Certain essential but dirty industries, like cargo shipping and steelmaking, don’t lend themselves well to direct electrification, at least not with today’s technology. They’re too heavy, too hot or otherwise ill suited to run on electricity alone. To fully eliminate fossil fuels, then, we’ll need to complement clean electricity with some other carbon-free processes and energy sources. Clean hydrogen may well be the most overhyped solution to this existential problem. Here’s the tricky part: It may also be the most viable solution.This is the paradox of clean hydrogen. The gas is either a silver bullet or a fatal flaw in decarbonization plans, depending on how it’s made, how it’s used — and who you ask. Right now, the vast majority of hydrogen is decidedly dirty. It’s produced using fossil gas in an emissions-intensive process called steam methane reforming.The lowest-carbon alternative is to make hydrogen with water and renewable electricity in a process known as electrolysis. You’ve probably heard of “green hydrogen”; this is it. Some entities, including several fossil fuel giants, argue that traditional “dirty” hydrogen can be made clean by adding carbon-capture technology into the mix. This is called “blue hydrogen,” and its status as a climate solution is both unproven and highly controversial.Green and blue hydrogen make up a vanishingly small amount of the hydrogen produced today. But that’s about to change, fast.If certain projections are to be trusted — though there are good reasons that they ought not to be — the world might be able to produce 90 million metric tons of low- or zero-carbon hydrogen by the end of this decade. That’s an amount roughly equivalent to the volume of dirty hydrogen currently produced each year and vastly more than today’s low-emissions hydrogen production capacity of around 1 million metric tons.Even achieving a fraction of a fraction of that goal — reaching, say, 10 million to 15 million metric tons by 2030, as longtime clean-energy analyst Michael Liebreich argues is far more realistic — would still mean the industry is on the precipice of exponential growth. But hydrogen hype has been around for decades, and lofty expectations for its future are not new. Liebreich identifies waves of exuberance about the fuel’s liberatory potential in the 1970s and in the late 1990s. Misguided futurists have been holding it up as the best way to fuel a passenger vehicle for years. And yet today, hydrogen is mostly relegated to snoozy applications like oil and gas refining and fertilizer production.
US 'hydrogen hub' plan may push clean hydrogen to the wrong users - One of the most common analogies for clean hydrogen is that it’s like a Swiss Army knife for decarbonization — a handy tool that can kick dirty fossil fuel out of a number of different industries. But just because a tool can be used doesn’t mean it should be used — especially if it’s a “second- or third-best clean energy solution” that displaces much better options at hand.That’s how Robin Gaster, a senior fellow at Washington, D.C. think tank Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, described the limits of clean hydrogen in a January report.“The answer is finding actual use cases where hydrogen is the primary solution, not the third-best solution,” Gaster, who is also the president of data and analysis consultancy Incumetrics, told Canary Media. “I went through pretty much everything I could find that seemed like at least a half-baked case to show that we could get to significant hydrogen demand. And I struggled.”Gaster isn’t alone. A growing number of industry analysts are questioning whether hydrogen is viable for the applications where it’s often cited as a decarbonization solution, from long-haul trucking to replacing fossil gas in pipelines for heating buildings and generating power.And this group is increasingly worried that existing U.S. policy will push federally subsidized clean hydrogen into several of the industries where it makes neither economic nor environmental sense. That’s because current policies focused on making clean hydrogen cheaper aren’t matched with policies to drive its use in the industries where it actually can help replace fossil fuels.The Inflation Reduction Act’s 45V tax credit will create a multibillion-dollar incentive for U.S.-based hydrogen producers to make low- and zero-carbon hydrogen. But unlike the European Union, the U.S. has few incentives — and no mandates — encouraging certain industries to buy clean hydrogen to reduce their climate impact.Instead, the chief federal policy on the demand side is a program created by 2021’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law that will direct $7 billion toward “clean hydrogen hubs” — complexes of hydrogen production, transport, storage and end users.Some of the seven hubs selected in October by the Department of Energy do include plans to direct clean hydrogen toward industries with the greatest need for it, including fertilizer production, shipping and steelmaking. But far more of the focus at these hubs appears to be on developing clean-hydrogen markets in sectors where experts say it is likely to be a suboptimal — and potentially counterproductive — alternative to clean electricity.
Advocates worry hydrogen hub will fuel environmental injustice in Northwest Indiana - Indiana environmental and citizen groups say a lack of transparency for a planned regional hydrogen fuel hub is stoking fears that the project will primarily benefit polluting heavy industries – though the federally funded program is meant to be part of a clean energy transition.“If we don’t get this right, if this hydrogen hub program doesn’t unfold in a way that’s equitable and different from the extractive energy programs of the past, this will just be another handout for fossil fuels that harms communities,” said Lauren Piette, senior associate attorney for the environmental law firm Earthjustice.The U.S. Department of Energy last year awarded $1 billion to the Midwest Alliance for Clean Hydrogen’s “MachH2,” a consortium of companies, universities, and other entities in Indiana, Illinois, and Michigan, to ramp up hydrogen fuel production in the region. The funding is part of a broader effort to scale up and bring down the cost of the clean-burning gas, with the DOE spending $7 billion to fund seven hydrogen hubs nationwide. Since that announcement, though, environmental and citizen groups say they have received little information or outreach from MachH2 organizers. In that vacuum, based on what little information is publicly available, concerns are growing that the hub will perpetuate polluting heavy industry in Northwest Indiana and help drive construction of controversial carbon dioxide pipelines. Backers say the large-scale production of hydrogen in the Midwest could mean revolutionary decarbonization for regional industry and transportation, and create more than 13,000 jobs. “We’re looking at some heavy industry — steel, glass, concrete,” said Neil Banwart, chief integration officer for MachH2. “From the transportation perspective, we’re looking at heavy-duty long-haul trucking, and in the longer term certain marine applications, maybe rail — fuel cells on locomotives, agricultural production of fertilizer.”Environmental and citizens groups agree that hydrogen will have an important role in the clean energy economy, offering a clean-burning substitute for fossil fuels in certain industrial and transportation applications where electrification isn’t feasible. But they worry a focus on “blue hydrogen” — made with natural gas and carbon sequestration — will only keep polluters in business longer and distract from cleaner, cheaper climate solutions. “It’s at the point now where everything is going to be hydrogen. We’re going to be using hydrogen to make electricity and melt metals and fly planes and make concrete and run boats. It’s a bit of a gold rush,” said Kerwin Olson, executive director of Citizens Action Coalition. “We need to figure out what are the best uses of hydrogen, and what are the environmental impacts going to be of those choices.” Banwart said MachH2 is developing a community engagement plan, as required by the Energy Department, and will launch the process once negotiations with the DOE are complete and the hub’s first phase begins later this year. MachH2 has said their process will include community advisory councils, town halls and an online dashboard. Already, Banwart said, the hub organizers have held three state-specific community meetings and the DOE hosted a community meeting shortly after the announcement that MachH2 was chosen to receive funds. It is unclear if there will be public comment periods or other chances for stakeholder review of specific hydrogen hub proposals. But most projects would need to get operating permits and other approvals from state, local and federal agencies. “It’s extremely secretive,” Citizens Action Coalition program director Ben Inskeep said, “We’re really in the dark on a lot of the details.”
Tonawanda Seneca Nation asks DOE to reject Plug Power loan - The Tonawanda Seneca Nation is urging the Biden administration to reject a $1.6 billion loan sought by hydrogen producer Plug Power, alleging the company is evading federal environmental reviews at its planned Genesee County facility. At issue is what Plug Power will spend the money on should the federal government approve its loan application later this year. Company executives have discussed the loan as essential for the company after itfiled a statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission in November which stated “substantial doubt that we will have sufficient capital to fund our operations through the next 12 months.”In its initial application, Plug Power proposed spending a portion of the loan on its plant under construction at the Science, Technology and Advanced Manufacturing Park (STAMP), which borders Tonawanda Seneca Nation territory. That facility would use discounted electricity from the New York Power Authority to split water molecules to generate hydrogen. The company sells hydrogen batteries to companies including Amazon and Walmart.In a letter to the U.S. Department of Energy last week, Tonawanda Seneca Nation Chief Roger Hill said Plug Power has not been truthful about its plans for the loan money and its facility at STAMP. Hill asserts that Plug Power amended its loan application to say it would not use any of the money at its STAMP facility. That would enable it to avoid reviews under the National Environmental Protection Act and the National Historic Preservation Act. But, Hill noted, CEO Andy Marsh told The Buffalo News in November that Plug Power would use the loan money at STAMP to “get that plant online.” And on a call with investors last week, Marsh said the DOE loan “will play a pivotal role in scheduling our forthcoming plants in Texas and New York.”“Plug has desecrated ancestral Seneca territory and now seeks to leverage [DOE Loan Program Office] funding to stay in business while evading federal review of the impacts of its proposed facility in Western New York on the Nation,” Hill wrote.“They’re not being truthful to somebody,” he added in an interview with Investigative Post. plug Power’s STAMP facility — a $232 million investment for the company — is slated to benefit substantially from public assistance. In 2021, the New York Power Authority and Genesee County Economic Development Center approved tax breaks and power subsidies valued at $270 million. The company plans to hire 68 workers, which equates to $4 million in subsidies per job. Hill, in his letter, questioned how federal officials could ensure that Plug Power wouldn’t use loan money on the STAMP facility. Another concern: Failure to conduct the environmental and preservation studies could lead to harm to the Nation’s territory.“We have seen time and again that developers have sought to evade federal review by narrowly and sometimes misleadingly characterizing the scope of their projects, to the detriment of the Nation,” Hill wrote.The Nation has already sued the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service over a permit it granted for a wastewater pipeline running through the Iroquois National Wildlife Refuge that’s essential to STAMP operations.The Plug Power plant borders a forest that tribal members use for hunting, fishing and gathering plants. Hill said he worries that any kind of industrial disaster could irreparably harm the Nation’s land.“We can’t move to anywhere else, this is all the land we have left,” he said.Alex Page, an attorney who represents the Nation, noted that in addition to Plug Power seeking the loan, other STAMP tenants have indicated they’ll seek other forms of federal assistance, making it imperative for the government to engage with the Nation.“The United States should honor its treaty relationship with the Tonawanda Seneca Nation and enter into consultations with the Nation that include a robust review of how an industrial development next to the Nation’s territory will affect the Nation, its people, the environment, and future generations,” she told Investigative Post. A spokesperson for Plug Power did not respond to a request for comment for this story. A spokesperson for the Loan Program Office declined to comment on Hill’s letter, but confirmed the agency had received it and is working on a response.
Logistical woes and high pump prices stall California H2 market development - California's success in decarbonizing its transportation sector using hydrogen as a zero-emission fuel option is being hampered by the lack of reliable infrastructure and prolonged elevated hydrogen prices at fueling stations, according to an analysis by S&P Global. By requiring all new car sales to meet the net zero-emission threshold by 2035, the California Air Resource Board's (CARB) Zero-Emission Vehicle (ZEV) legislation aims to reduce emissions and promote the widespread adoption of ZEVs. Despite the progress made towards ZEV adoption, the hydrogen fueling system continues to face challenges across the supply chain.ZEV sales have grown 118% from 2018-2023, with electric vehicle sales making up most of the volume while the adoption of hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV) has been sluggish, according to ZEV and infrastructure data from the California Energy Commission (CEC).The CEC held a joint public workshop on Nov. 6, 2023, with CARB, the Governor Office of Business and Economic Development (GO-Biz) and several of the hydrogen fueling station providers to discuss the fuel cell driver experience and barriers to commercialization and deployment of FCEV's.The state's hydrogen fueling network had "poor reliability" that has frustrated drivers and stifled the proliferation of FCEVs, California's District 29 Senator Josh Newman said at the workshop.Some key challenges affecting hydrogen supply and prices according to an analysis by S&P Global are: fuel reliability, starting with challenges associated with cost of feedstocks haven risen due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine; station deficiencies; unforeseen costs of operating and maintaining fueling stations, and the decline in Low-Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) credit values.All of these challenges reflect the immature state of the FCEV fueling infrastructure and slow the transition away from fossil fuel based internal combustion vehicles.Platts last assessed California's retail hydrogen price at $33.48/kg Jan. 4, 2023, which is the weighted average hydrogen price offered at retail fueling stations across the state. The price has risen 112% from when Platts began the assessment in September 2021, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights data.On a fuel basis comparison with conventional gasoline sold in California, the Platts hydrogen price is three times more expensive than gasoline after being adjusted for fuel efficiency.
North Carolina utilities: Increased power demands prompt Duke Energy to expedite plans for new natural gas power plant - -- Duke Energy wants to expedite plans to build a new hydrogen-capable natural gas power plant in Person County.The energy company updated its Carolina Resources Plan Wednesday and filed new documents with the North Carolina Utilities Commission. The documents reveal that the company believes it needs to get the new plant up and running earlier than expected due to the ongoing population boom and business growth in North Carolina.The North Carolina Department of State said the economic boom continues to be impressive. This January alone has seen 14,000 new business applications filed.Small businesses are driving a lot of that expansion. Last year, North Carolina saw the second most filings ever for small businesses, with more than 171,000 new entities registered. The record for most new small businesses was set in 2021 when more than 178,000 filed."The Carolinas continue to experience phenomenal growth and demand for electricity," Duke Energy spokesperson Bill Norton said. "It's far outpacing our forecast from the spring that were the basis for our long-range plan."Recent energy usage numbers dwarfed Duke Energy's expectations. Because of that, the company had to increase its most recent usage projection by 2,000 megawatts."If you look at our plan from just two years ago versus now, we're expecting eight times the level of electricity demand by 2030 than two years ago," Norton said.Wednesday's updated urgency in getting the new plant up and running is a direct response to that increased energy demand."With new nuclear, increase hydrogen natural gas, with more solar, more wind -- it's going to be an all of above diverse mix," Norton said describing how Duke Energy plans to meet the energy needs of people in North Carolina. In addition to meeting those energy demands, the new hydrogen-capable natural gas power plant will help Duke Energy meet its environmental goal of completely cutting off the use of coal by 2035.
Is there any place for fossil fuels in the clean hydrogen future? - Should our clean energy future rely more on electrons or on molecules? That’s the question at the core of the battle over clean hydrogen, a potential fossil-fuel substitute that burns without emitting carbon dioxide. Right now, the vast majority of the world’s energy comes from molecules — dirty ones. They’re the product of billions upon billions of gallons of fossil fuels, pumped, refined and transported each year via the trillions of dollars of infrastructure that forms the circulation system for the modern industrial economy. Today, that system is owned and operated for the profit of private and government-owned fossil fuel companies.But there’s an alternative circulation system — the electric grid — that is inherently more efficient at delivering energy. It’s also the carrier of the clean electrons, generated from sun, wind, water and the earth’s heat, that are the heart of the energy transition.Much of the debate over clean hydrogen boils down to which of these two systems the world should prioritize in the fight to stop burning planet-warming fossil fuels.On the one side are the climate advocates, researchers, clean-energy analysts and a subset of hydrogen industry players arguing that the only way for clean hydrogen to help with the energy transition is if it’s made from carbon-free electricity and used for the tasks that clean electrons can’t currently handle, like long-haul aviation and fertilizer production.On the other are fossil fuel interests, as well as some energy experts skeptical of the potential for renewables to meet the world’s decarbonization needs. They argue that fossil gas is a perfectly fine feedstock for hydrogen, so long as carbon capture is involved. In their view, hydrogen molecules can and should compete with electrons in applications ranging from home heating to power generation, even when electrification is proven to be far more efficient.From oil majors like Chevron to gas pipeline operators like TC Energy, fossil fuel companies play leading roles in the groups pushing governments to support a clean-hydrogen economy that prefers molecules over electrons, including for the clean hydrogen hubs seeking $7 billion in federal grants. So, too, do their cousins in a U.S. utility industry still highly reliant on gas, coal and oil.Their vision includes repurposing and expanding existing fossil-fuel infrastructure to create and distribute clean hydrogen, adding carbon-capture equipment to dirty hydrogen production facilities to make “blue hydrogen,” and building pipeline and distribution networks to deliver that hydrogen far and wide. It also includes making as much clean hydrogen as possible, and encouraging its use in as many industries as possible, to drive down its costs.And they’re spending tens of millions of dollars in an escalating lobbying effort to try and make this reality come true — a reality in which combustion and fossil fuel extraction remain much more central to society than is compatible with the needs of our warming planet.But critics say this group’s arguments ignore hydrogen’s only real merit for the energy transition: to decarbonize the industries that can’t practically and cost-effectively do so with clean electricity alone. “Hydrogen is only a tool for decarbonization if it’s displacing fossil fuels,” said Julie McNamara, deputy policy director with the Union of Concerned Scientists. “For every unit of renewable electricity we have, we have to make that unit go as far as it can — and that’s almost always direct electrification.”This core conflict — molecules versus electrons, combustion versus circuitry — underlies almost every conflict now playing out in the federal agencies responsible for shaping U.S. hydrogen policy. And right now, clean-hydrogen skeptics fear existing policies are not structured to avoid directing hundreds of billions of dollars into a hydrogen infrastructure that saddles the country with more climate debt.
Hydrogen trains and trucks are coming — for better or worse - When a sleek new train rolls into Southern California later this year, it will be the first in the nation, and one of only a handful globally, to be running on hydrogen.The four-car commuter train is slated to arrive in San Bernardino County this summer after completing testing at a federal facility in Colorado. Its electric motors are powered by a combination of batteries and fuel cells, the latter of which convert hydrogen into electricity — emitting only water vapor as they do, not the toxic pollution that diesel engines spew. More hydrogen trains are soon to follow. Last year, the California Department of Transportation, or Caltrans, signed an $80 million contract for four sets of longer-distance models that will link cities in the Central Valley starting in 2027. Swiss company Stadler Rail, which has a manufacturing site in Salt Lake City, is making units for both projects.“We think this is going to be one of the most promising technologies for typical [rail] corridors in California,” said Kyle Gradinger, assistant deputy director of rail transportation for Caltrans. The fuel-cell trains will be hitting the rails at a pivotal yet contentious time for hydrogen-powered transportation in California and beyond.The Golden State has worked for decades to curb harmful tailpipe emissions from diesel- and gasoline-burning engines in its smog-choked cities — a push that’s being replicated in more than a dozen states. California has set increasingly stringent policies and invested billions of dollars over time to both spur development and drive adoption of “zero-emission” technologies for cars, buses, trucks, rail and heavy-duty cargo equipment.Today, the vast majority of zero-emission vehicles use only batteries. But the state’s tiny hydrogen-vehicle market recently received a giant jolt from the Biden administration.Late last year, the U.S. Department of Energy awarded $1.2 billion to California to establish one of seven “clean hydrogen hubs” nationwide, through a program created by 2021’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. In California, much of the funding will be directed toward accelerating heavy-duty hydrogen trucks and building out the necessary refueling infrastructure. Hydrogen trains and buses are likewise expected to proliferate as clean H2 supplies become available.“We’re entering a new era,” said Lewis Fulton of the University of California–Davis, who is chairing the transportation working group within California’s hydrogen hub. The regional hubs are also intended to clean up hydrogen production itself, given that nearly all H2 today is made with fossil gas using energy-intensive methods. The lowest-carbon alternative is to make hydrogen using water and renewable electricity through electrolysis, a process that’s not yet happening at commercial scale.
Electric Vehicles Use Half the Energy of Gas-Powered Vehicles -- As U.S. EV sales rise, more cars than ever are using the electrical grid to power up. It would be reasonable to assume that means the grid must now supply a vast amount of energy to those cars — but it actually won’t take as much as you might think.The reality: EVs require much less energy to operate than gasoline-burning vehicles. In fact, with the nation’s current electricity blend, an EV requires only about half the energy needed for a gasoline-powered internal combustion engine.U.S. residents are collectively burning about 8.9 million barrels of gasoline a day, or a little over one gallon each for every person in the country. That enormous sum has decreased by around 5% from the nation’s peak gasoline use in 2018.Today’s gasoline-fueled cars and trucks waste around 80% of the energy that gets pumped into their gas tanks. A car heats up as it burns fuel to move pistons and propel the wheels. The heat is not needed to move the car, so it is vented off, carrying away most of the energy in the fuel. This isn’t necessarily a design flaw; it’s an inevitable part of thermodynamics. Burning fuel to create motion tends to be an energy-wasting proposition. Electric vehicles operate with only around 11% energy loss, meaning that most of the energy that goes into the car ends up turning the wheels. Because the vehicle doesn’t burn fuel, there is no thermodynamic penalty for converting heat to motion. Also, EVs can recapture energy during braking, boosting overall efficiency.The electricity that charges EVs has to come from somewhere. It would be correct to point out that some types of electricity generation are also grossly inefficient, especially coal.Generators powered by coal, oil, or methane gas — commonly called natural gas — use a complex process, burning fuel to create steam that spins a turbine that generates an electrical current. Here, the thermodynamic problem arises yet again. Burning any type of fuel to make electricity ends up releasing the majority of the energy in the fuel as unused heat. You read that right: Most of the original energy is lost.Despite the major energy losses, a power plant is still more efficient than a car’s engine. Recall that an internal combustion engine loses around 80% of the energy that goes into it. A coal-burning power plant loses around 68% of its energy. Thus, an EV powered purely by coal still uses less energy than a car powered by gasoline.Methane gas power plants are more efficient than coal power, so an EV charged with electricity from methane gas uses about half as much energy as a similar car powered by gasoline.
Crash tests indicate nation's guardrail system can't handle heavy electric vehicles (AP) — Electric vehicles that typically weigh more than gasoline-powered cars can easily crash through steel highway guardrails that are not designed to withstand the extra force, raising concerns about the nation’s roadside safety system, according to crash test data released Wednesday by the University of Nebraska. Electric vehicles typically weigh 20% to 50% more than gas-powered vehicles thanks to batteries that can weigh almost as much as a small gas-powered car. And they have lower centers of gravity. Because of these differences, guardrails can do little to stop electric vehicles from pushing through barriers typically made of steel. Last fall, engineers at Nebraska’s Midwest Roadside Safety Facility watched as an electric-powered pickup truck hurtled toward a guardrail installed on the facility’s testing ground on the edge of the local municipal airport. The nearly 4-ton (3.6 metric ton) 2022 Rivian R1T tore through the metal guardrail and hardly slowed until hitting a concrete barrier yards away on the other side. “We knew it was going to be an extremely demanding test of the roadside safety system,” said Cody Stolle with the facility. “The system was not made to handle vehicles greater than 5,000 pounds.” The university released the results of the crash test at a time when the rising popularity of electric vehicles has led transportation officials to sound the alarm over the weight disparity of the new battery-powered vehicles and lighter gas-powered ones. Last year, the National Transportation Safety Board expressed concern about the safety risks heavy electric vehicles pose if they collide with lighter vehicles. Road safety officials and organizations say the electric vehicles themselves appear to offer superior protection to their occupants, even if they might prove dangerous to occupants of lighter vehicles. The Rivian truck tested in Nebraska showed almost no damage to the cab’s interior after slamming into the concrete barrier, Stolle said. In response to the release of the test results Wednesday, Rivian Automotive Inc. noted that the truck used in the testing received a 2023 Top Safety Pick+ award, the highest tier award issued by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. But the entire purpose of guardrails, found along tens of thousands of miles of roadway, is to help keep passenger vehicles from leaving the road, said Michael Brooks, executive director of the nonprofit Center for Auto Safety. Guardrails are intended to keep cars from careening off the road at critical areas, such as over bridges and waterways, near the edges of cliffs and ravines and over rocky terrain, where injury and death in an off-the-road crash are much more likely. “Guardrails are kind of a safety feature of last resort,” Brooks said. “I think what you’re seeing here is the real concern with EVs — their weight. There are a lot of new vehicles in this larger-size range coming out in that 7,000-pound range. And that’s a concern.” The preliminary crash test sponsored by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ Research and Development Center also involved a Tesla sedan crash, in which the sedan lifted the guardrail and passed under it. The tests showed the barrier system is likely to be overmatched by heavier electric vehicles, officials said. The extra weight of electric vehicles comes from their outsized batteries needed to achieve a travel range of about 300 miles (480 kilometers) per charge. “So far, we don’t see good vehicle-to-guardrail compatibility with electric vehicles,” Stolle said.
GM’s ‘all-in’ electric future now includes gasoline - General Motors introduced the plug-in hybrid car to America. Then the automaker killed it and foreswore ever making it again. And now, somehow, it’s back. The vacillations were on display Tuesday as GM, America’s largest automaker, said it would reintroduce a gasoline-electric car with a plug — a combination it effectively abandoned three years ago when it promised to go “all in” on electric vehicles and turn away from gasoline altogether. Advertisement GM is the latest automaker to signal that it’s returning to the plug-in hybrid. The vehicle type seemed to be on its way out until late last year. That’s when EV sales began slowing both in the U.S. and abroad, sending automakers back to the plug-in hybrid. It offers a compromise: a number of emissions-free electric miles, along with a gasoline tank that assures that long road trips won’t live or die on the country’s patchy network of EV charging stations. GM CEO Mary Barra mentioned the change only briefly Tuesday during a call with investors to discuss the company’s latest earnings statement. “Our forward plans include bringing our plug-in hybrid technology to select vehicles in North America,” she said. Barra did not discuss which models would be converted or on what timeline, and a GM spokesperson declined to add more detail. The reversal underscored how difficult it is for traditional automakers to navigate a transition to electric vehicles in the narrow space between investors who want a profit, regulators who want lower emissions and customers who don’t aren’t yet ready to make the all-electric jump. Barra said the new plug-in hybrids will be deployed to navigate increasingly strict emissions rules put in place by the Biden administration. “We are timing the launches to help us comply with the more stringent fuel economy and tailpipe emission standards that are being proposed,” Barra said. Automakers have opposed proposed rules by EPA, saying they are unrealistic and out of step with drivers’ tastes. The rules would in effect require the companies to produce fleets that are 67 percent EVs by 2032.Barra insisted that the reincarnation of the plug-in hybrid does not mean that the company is retreating from its plan, announced in 2021, to produce only electric vehicles by 2035.. “Let me be clear, GM remains committed to eliminating tailpipe emissions from our light duty vehicles by 2035,” she said. “But in the interim, deploying plug-in technology in strategic segments will deliver some of the environmental benefits of EVs as the nation continues to build its charging infrastructure.”
Greta Thunberg protests illegal wind turbines in Norway -- Swedish climate campaigner Greta Thunberg on Thursday joined indigenous Sami activists protesting in Oslo against wind turbines still operating on reindeer herding land two years after a court ruled them illegal. On October 11, 2021, Norway's Supreme Court found that two wind farms in the Fosen region of western Norway -- on land used by Sami reindeer herders -- violated the rights of the indigenous people, guaranteed by the UN, to practise their culture of reindeer husbandry. Two years later, the 151 turbines are still operating. To mark the anniversary on Wednesday, dozens of environment activists and Samis began a series of protests in the Norwegian capital expected to last several days, demanding the demolition of the turbines. On Thursday, Thunberg joined the activists to block the entrance to the headquarters of state-owned energy group Statkraft, which operates 80 of the 151 turbines in Fosen. "It's important to show solidarity when human rights violations are taking place especially in Scandinavia against the Sami people," Thunberg told AFP on Wednesday. She was speaking just after a court in the southern Swedish town of Malmo had fined her for public disobedience at a July 24th protest in Malmo. "All of us who can be there and show our support should," she said. On Thursday, she sat on the ground next to activists clad in traditional Sami clothing at the foot of a lavvu, a Sami tent erected outside the Statkraft entrance. Thunberg had already taken part in a demonstration in February to mark the 500th day since the Supreme Court ruling. "Greta Thunberg is an important ally supporting our cause," Sami activist and artist Ella Marie Haetta Isaksen said.
Climate activist Greta Thunberg cleared of public order offense during London oil protest — Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg on Friday was cleared of a public order offense over a protest at an oil and gas conference in October Thunberg was arrested Oct. 17 outside the InterContinental London Park Lane hotel after joining hundreds of protesters at an “Oily Money Out” demonstration organized by Fossil Free London and Greenpeace. Oil executives had been meeting inside the hotel on the first day of the Energy Intelligence Forum, formerly known as the Oil and Money conference.Thunberg appeared at London’s Westminster Magistrates’ Court this week alongside two Fossil Free London protesters and two Greenpeace protesters. All five defendants pleaded not guilty after being accused of breaching Section 14 of the Public Order Act 1986 by failing to move their protest to a designated area.The judge in the London court ruled she had no case to answer, and also acquitted the other defendants. “The prosecution evidence is insufficient for any reasonable court to properly convict and I exercise my discretion to acquit all five defendants,” Judge John Law said to applause in the gallery, according to Reuters.The Met Police said in a statement at the time that it had imposed conditions on those protesting under Section 14 of the Public Order Act “to prevent serious disruption to the community, hotel and guests.”The act allows the police to impose conditions on a public group in an effort to prevent issues such as “significant impact on persons or serious disruption to the activities of an organisation by noise; serious disorder [and] serious damage to property.”A prominent campaigner, the 21-year-old Thunberg has been arrested several times during climate protests across Europe over the past 12 months.Speaking in October last year after a Swedish court fined her for disobeying police at a protest, Thunberg reportedly said she was prepared to continue taking part in demonstrations even if it “leads to more sentences.“
ExxonMobil Says Activist Shareholders’ ‘Extreme Agenda’ Designed to Diminish Existing Operations - ExxonMobil is seeking to prevent some investors from using what it called a “Goldilocks Trojan Horse” strategy to diminish existing business operations. In a lawsuit filed earlier in January, the integrated major requested judicial relief to exclude a shareholder proposal by Arjuna Capital and Follow This. The lawsuit was filed in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Texas, Fort Worth Division (No. 4:24-cv-00069-O). “Most shareholders invest in companies to help the companies grow and see a return on their investment,” ExxonMobil stated in the lawsuit. “But Arjuna and Follow This are not like most shareholders. Driven by an extreme agenda, they pursue what Follow This calls a ‘Goldilocks Trojan Horse’ strategy: They (or their clients) become...
Energy Department sets efficiency standards for gas stoves - The Department of Energy unveiled a heavily anticipated, scaled-back regulation Monday to cut greenhouse gas emissions from stovetop cooking in the U.S., going with a compromise that pleased gas stove producers and environmentalists alike.Stoves that consume 1,770 thousand British thermal units (kBtu) per year of gas will be permitted under the new regulation, which aligns with a compromise floated last year by the Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers (AHAM) and the environmental group Appliance Standards Awareness Project. That’s a much more flexible regulation than the 1,204-kBtu threshold initially proposed by DOE.The decision follows months of political drama over allegations that Biden administration officials wanted to ban gas stoves from American’s homes. Republicans and some moderate Democrats, like Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), repeatedly blasted the administration over the plan to regulate gas stoves.Along with a rulemaking process at the Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) that could potentially restrict American access to gas stoves, critics said federal rules on gas stoves represents a federal infringement on American lives. Lawmakers introduced legislation to prohibit gas stove action at DOE and the CPSC.But the regulation, following months of aggressive industry pressure on DOE to abandon its plan, found a positive reception among industry. “This standard is a win for consumers appliance, manufacturers, and energy savings,” Kelly Mariotti, president of AHAM, said in a statement. “Manufacturers will have the flexibility they need to continue, offering the features and performance that consumers value in gas cooking products.” DOE was legally required by court decree to release the regulation by the end of January.The American Gas Association did not immediately respond to a request for comment Monday. The industry group is suing DOE to block a separate rule on gas furnaces.
‘Astonishing’ Lack of Interties Blocks Canada’s Climate Goals - Canadian power utilities will have to get better at sharing resources if the country is to meet its emission reduction and energy transition targets, according to a recent news analysis.The “dearth of cross-provincial electricity transactions” was enough to cause astonishment for a visiting politician from the United Kingdom, columnist Kelly Cryderman wrote last month for the Globe and Mail. Cryderman quotes Martin Callanan, a former Brexit minister who now holds the energy efficiency and green finance portfolio, speaking to an Alberta energy podcast during a recent visit to the province. “We’re not part of the EU,” but “I’ve lost count of the number of electricity interconnectors we now have with continental Europe,” he said. So “I was genuinely surprised to discover there isn’t even much electricity trading between the different provinces.”But despite a conversation about east-west transmission grids that dates back at least to the early 2000s (and reads like it was a long-standing issue even then), Cryderman says provincial grids “stand apart from one another like islands: for the most part, each province has its own electricity system, with different quirks and characteristics. There are fewer electricity interconnections, or interties, east-west in this country than there is capacity to export to the United States.”That’s a growing problem, she adds, “because everyone from environmentalists to the federal Liberals to conservative Prairie premiers want to make electricity a larger part of the national mix in order to green growing energy consumption, and meet climate goals. They are counting on the country’s bountiful, non-emitting hydro resources to help. But those resources aren’t spread evenly throughout Canada, and some sharing will be required.”(Those resources are also under increasing strain as climate change-induced droughts become more frequent and severe.)Cryderman points to a “long-simmering dispute” between Manitoba, which sells its surplus power to the U.S. Midwest, and SaskPower, which generates most of its power from coal and natural gas. In a recent complaint to the Canada Energy Regulator, Saskatchewan says Manitoba isn’t allowing domestic buyers into its electricity market, as its export permit stipulates.“Manitoba Hydro is selling low-cost, low-emitting power to the United States to the exclusion of a Canadian jurisdiction, for no discernible benefit to Manitoba Hydro,” Saskatchewan asserts. Manitoba counters that its neighbouring province is looking for special treatment and could ultimately set itself up as a competitor in export markets.However that dispute is eventually settled, “provinces will need—to the degree possible in our federation—to get past squabbles,” Cryderman writes, even if there are few living examples where that hope has worked out in practice. “This is not only for climate goals themselves but also to meet rising demand.” Without trading electricity as easily as the UK does with the EU, she warns, “Canada doesn’t stand a chance at electrifying as we want to in the decades ahead.”
The Holdouts in the Quest for a Better Power Grid - The Sprouse family farm covers thousands of acres of fertile glacial till, remnants of the last ice age, in northwestern Missouri. Each day, billions of cubic feet of natural gas and hundreds of thousands of barrels’ worth of crude oil pass underneath its fields and cow pastures. “At least the pipelines are out of sight, even if they aren’t out of mind,” Loren Sprouse, the youngest of three Sprouse brothers, said one morning in May as we were driving around in a utility terrain vehicle. “We’d rather have them than the transmission line.” The transmission line Sprouse was talking about is the Grain Belt Express, a planned eight-hundred-mile-long power line that will connect wind farms in southwestern Kansas to more densely populated areas farther East. The Grain Belt Express is designed to carry five thousand megawatts of electricity, enough to power approximately 3.2 million homes. The project has been in the works since 2010. It was taken over by Invenergy, a Chicago-based energy company, in 2020. After years of lawsuits and legislative wrangling, regulators in Missouri granted it final approval in October, 2023. If all goes as planned, construction will start in early 2025 and be completed in 2028. One of the biggest obstacles that the United States faces in its fight against climate change is getting renewable energy to the places that need the most electricity. Many of the best locations for wind and solar farms are, by their very nature, remote. And moving that energy elsewhere requires navigating a byzantine permitting process for transmission lines and winning over landowners—or, if they can’t be won over, then deciding whether and when the need for a given project outweighs their concerns. “The scale of the undertaking and the speed at which it needs to occur are incredibly daunting,” Romany Webb, the deputy director of the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law, at Columbia Law School, told me. “We’re talking about a massive build-out of new, large-scale infrastructure across the country, and we need to do it, like, yesterday.” Sprouse said that he wasn’t against renewable energy, but he couldn’t support something that would interfere with his family’s farming operations and, in his words, “be the dominant scar on the landscape.” The transmission towers that Invenergy plans to build are around a hundred and fifty feet tall. One of Sprouse’s main concerns is whether G.P.S.-guided equipment, like tractors and combines, would work near them. (A 2012 study from the University of Calgary suggests that they will.) He’s also worried about how the line could affect aerial spraying and his ability to maintain a pond that he had built last year, to say nothing of what he fears it might do to local property values. “It’s me working around them instead of them working with me,” he said, referring to Invenergy. “That’s the problem.”
China's wind, solar capacity forecast to overtake coal in 2024 (Reuters) - China's installed wind and solar capacity will overtake coal for the first time this year, an industry body forecast on Tuesday.The China Electricity Council (CEC) in a yearly report said grid-connected wind and solar would make up around 40% of installed power generation capacity by the end of 2024, compared with coal's expected 37%.By comparison, wind and solar together were around 36% of capacity at the end of 2023, and coal was just under 40%.China will have built around 1,300 gigawatts (GW) of wind and solar capacity by the end of 2024, the CEC expects, meaning it will have already exceeded its official target of 1,200 GW by 2030.The CEC also said that generating capacity from all non-fossil fuel sources - including nuclear and hydro - made up more than half of the total for the first time in 2023.However, it did not give a forecasted breakdown for actual power generation, which is still dominated by coal that provided nearly 60% of electricity consumed last year.The CEC sees electricity consumption growing by 6% this year, down just slightly from 2023's 6.7% growth rate, when demand was recovering from a low base following the pandemic.It said power supply could be tight during the peak demand for heating in winter and cooling in summer, recommending improved measures to curb consumption, such as time-of-use pricing.The CEC urged the government to develop a capacity payment system to incentivise battery storage and other new energy storage technologies as soon as possible to help incorporate renewable energy into the grid. It also suggested speeding up the construction of pumped hydro storage.
China's emissions from power sector may peak around 2024 | S&P Global Commodity Insights -China's carbon emissions from its power sector may peak around 2024, S&P Global Commodity Insights forecasted, but the development is subject to some uncertainties, including the pace of economic recovery and the extent to which rapid growth in renewable generation capacity can translate into reliable power supply.Although 2023 marked the end of China's battle against COVID-19, the country's weak real estate and export markets were a drag on power demand growth. During the first 11 months of 2023, power demand growth for the entire industrial and services sector was 6.1%, but it was largely due to a low base in 2022, S&P Global data showed.S&P Global forecasts that China's power demand will grow 5.4% to 9,665.42 TWh in 2024. However, exceeding this moderate level will depend on more pro-growth policies and effective stimulus measures to accelerate economic recovery.Despite the economic turbulence, China's renewables-based power generation capacity has been soaring in recent years, with S&P Global forecasting solar and wind capacity addition to reach 206 GW in 2024, on par with last year's high.Whether power sector emissions can peak in 2024 will depend on the development of energy storage systems and transmission infrastructures, which are essential to cope with intermittency and integrate renewables into the grid. Otherwise, growth in renewable capacity will bring simultaneous growth in coal-fired and gas-fired generation capacity.The coal and gas fleets added 46.5 GW and 6.94 GW of capacity in the first 11 months of 2023. In 2024, China's coal-fired capacity additions are expected to be 44 GW, while gas-fired capacity additions will reach 11 GW, S&P Global forecasts.With a significant amount of coal-fired generation being under construction, the capacity growth is expected to continue until the latter half of this decade. Nevertheless, a transitioning power grid is expected to see existing fossil-fuel-based generation operate at lower utilization rates as renewables ramp up, driving the shift in the emissions profile.
India to increase coal-fired capacity in 2024 by the most in at least 6 years (Reuters) - India will start operating new coal-fired power plants with a combined capacity of 13.9 gigawatts (GW) this year, its power ministry said in a statement to Reuters, the highest annual increase in at least six years. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government has cited energy security concerns amid surging power demand and low per-capita emissions to defend India's high dependence on coal. Power generation in 2023 increased by 11.3%, the fastest pace in at least five years. "In the next 18 months, about 19,600 MW (megawatts of) capacity is likely to be commissioned," the power ministry said in a statement on Thursday. That will include the 13.9 GW likely to be commissioned this year. The 2024 capacity increase will be more than four times the annual average in the last five years. India added 4 GW of coal-fired power capacity in 2023, the most in a year since 2019. Coal-fired output surged 14.7% during the year, outpacing renewable energy output growth for the first time since at least 2019. Green energy output rose 12.2% in 2023, an analysis of daily load dispatch data from the federal grid regulator showed. The south Asian nation failed to achieve a target to add 175 GW of renewable power capacity by 2022. The planned coal-fired capacity increase in 2024 will exceed its 2023 renewables increase of 13 GW. The Ministry of Power has envisaged adding at least 53.6 GW of coal-fired power capacity over the eight years ending March 2032, it said, in addition to the 26.4 GW currently being constructed. Coal currently accounts for over 50% of India's installed capacity of 428.3 GW.
Holtec to get $1.5 bln loan to re-open Michigan nuclear power plant -source (Reuters) - Holtec International is set to get a $1.5 billion conditional loan in February from the U.S. Energy Department to help it restart the Palisades nuclear power plant in Michigan, a person with knowledge of the matter said on Tuesday. The loan from the Department of Energy's Loan Programs Office (LPO) is likely to be announced in late February, the person said, declining to be identified as the information was not yet public.The energy technology firm said it was "optimistic" about the federal loan process, which would help the company re-open a closed U.S. nuclear power plant for the first time in history. "We hope for a timely approval to bring the plant back to full power operation toward the end of 2025," said Holtec spokesperson Nick Culp, declining to comment on the size or timing of the loan. Florida-based Holtec bought Palisades in 2022 from Entergy to decommission the plant after it struggled to compete with natural gas-fired plants and renewable energy.After interest rose from the administration of President Joe Biden in low-carbon power from nuclear energy, Holtec filed in October with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission to reopen the 800-megawatt plant, while also applying for an LPO loan.The Biden administration believes nuclear power is essential in the fight against climate change and for its goals to decarbonize the grid by 2035 and the economy by 2050. Nuclear plants are also a source of some of the highest-paying union jobs in the energy industry.The LPO said it could not confirm or deny the existence of an applicant as the information is business confidential.Bloomberg first reported that the administration was poised to loan the company $1.5 billion as soon as next month, citing sources.Holtec in September signed an agreement with Wolverine Power Cooperative, a not-for-profit energy provider, for the purchase up to two-thirds of the power generated by Palisades. The Biden administration earlier this month finalized $1.1 billion in credits to keep PG&E Corp's Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant in operation in California.
25 SMR license applications expected by 2029, plus six other takeaways from FERC, NRC joint meeting - Grid reliability and small modular reactors were key topics at a biennial meeting between the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission on Thursday.Here are seven takeaways from the meeting.
- Many SMRs in the pipeline. The NRC expects it will receive 25 licensing applications in the next five years for small modular reactors and advanced reactors, according to Andrea Kock, deputy office director for engineering, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation. The planned SMR units will likely be up to about 200 MW in size, she said.
- More utilities look to extend the life of existing nuclear plants. The NRC is reviewing applications for license extensions for 16 nuclear reactors “with more to come,” said John Wise, senior technical advisor for license renewal aging management in the NRC’s Division of New and Renewed Licenses. The United States has 93 licensed nuclear reactors.
- Nuclear is a critical tool for reliability and decarbonization. FERC Commissioner Mark Christie touted the benefits of nuclear power. “Number one, it's carbon free and that's great. Number two, it runs all the time,” he said. “So basically, any future where you want to have reliable power and reduce carbon emissions it's got to include nuclear.”
- NERC sees risks in the nation’s changing resource mix. The North American Electric Reliability Corp.’s just-issued long-term reliability assessment anticipates 83 GW of fossil-fueled and nuclear power plants will retire by the end of 2033, according to a presentation given at Thursday’s meeting by NERC Senior Vice President and Chief Engineer Mark Lauby. In the same period, NERC expects 62 GW of solar, 29 GW of gas, 21 GW of batteries and 5 GW of wind to come online, for a gain of 34 GW of nameplate capacity.
- But those risks can be managed. The shift to inverter-based resources creates risks, but they can be managed, according to Lauby. “We see more resources, especially around solar and battery support, and those are certainly good resources to have, but they create more uncertainty.”Reflecting those energy supply risks, one day in September, Germany’s 60 GW wind fleet produced only 2 GW, according to Lauby. “So we gotta make sure for those days that we have a place to go to back those systems up,” he said.
- Load-following nuclear offers flexibility. Some nuclear power plants are able to follow changing load patterns, according to NRC Chairman Christopher Hanson. “That flexibility is going to be really important,” Lauby said.
- Critical black start units are vulnerable to cold weather outages. During Winter Storm Elliott in December 2022, 155 designated black start units — generating units that can be used to restart the grid system after a wide-spread power outage — were hit with outages themselves, according to Heather Polzin, reliability enforcement counsel and attorney advisor in FERC’s Office of Enforcement. They totaled 19,000 MW, she said.
Encino Gives Evolution 3-Yr Contract Extension for Utica E-Fracking -- Marcellus Drilling News -- Evolution Well Services announced a three-year extension of their current electric fracturing partnership with Encino Energy after achieving operational efficiencies and milestones in 2023. Evolution uses “e-fracking” technology. Traditional fracking uses diesel-fueled engines to produce electricity to power pressure pumps for hydraulic fracturing operations. E-fracking uses natural gas from the well pad (or CNG or LNG) to power turbines to create electricity. E-fracking uses a different type of “engine” and different fuel. E-fracking fleets are roughly half the size of traditional diesel fleets — and a whole lot quieter.
Shell CEO Says PA Cracker Not Fully Online Until 2025/26, Cost $14B -Marcellus Drilling News - Yesterday, Shell’s new CEO, Wael Sawan, spilled some major beans about the company’s ethane cracker in Monaca (Beaver County), Pennsylvania. Sawan’s comments about the cracker came during a quarterly conference call with analysts to discuss the company’s performance during the fourth quarter of 2023. Until yesterday, Shell had steadfastly declined to disclose how much money it spent to build the Monaca ethane cracker facility. Sawan said yesterday the number was a massive $14 billion, far more than the estimated $6-$10 billion that had been bandied about for years.
27 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Jan 22 – 28 --Marcellus Drilling News -- There were 27 new permits issued to drill in the Marcellus/Utica during the week of Jan. 22 – 28, versus 20 permits issued during the prior week. Pennsylvania issued 19 new permits last week. Ohio issued 5 new permits. West Virginia issued 3 new permits last week. Olympus Energy scored the most new permits with 7, all of them in Westmoreland County, PA. Apex Energy came in second with 6 new permits, also in Westmoreland. In fact, Westmoreland County, in southwestern PA, received 15 new permits last week, by far the most of any county. Tags: Allegheny County | Antero Resources | Apex Energy | Ascent Resources | Belmont County | Butler County | CNX Resources | EQT Corp | Greene County (PA) | Guernsey County | Gulfport Energy | INR | Jefferson County (OH) | Laurel Mountain Energy | Lycoming County | Olympus/Huntley & Huntley | Range Resources Corp | Tyler County | Westmoreland County
Equitrans to Drill 2 New Gas Storage Wells in Greene County, PA | Marcellus Drilling News - Equitrans, the builder of the 303-mile Mountain Valley Pipeline project, is more than just a one-trick (one pipeline) pony. Equitrans owns 940 miles of FERC-regulated, interstate pipelines that have interconnect points to seven interstate pipelines and multiple local distribution companies (LDCs). The transmission and storage system is supported by 43 compressor units, with total throughput capacity of approximately 4.4 Bcf per day and compression of approximately 136,000 horsepower, and 18 natural gas storage reservoirs, which have a peak withdrawal capacity of approximately 820 million cubic feet (MMcf) per day and a working gas capacity of approximately 43 Bcf. Two of Equitrans’ 18 storage reservoirs — Hunters Cave and Swarts, both in Greene County, PA — are getting a fundament makeover.
Penn LNG CEO Says Philly Export Project on Hold, “Not Dead Yet” - Marcellus Drilling News On Monday, we told you the mayor of Chester, PA (a suburb of Philadelphia), Stefan Roots, boldly proclaimed that an LNG export project planned for his community called Penn LNG is “dead in the water” (see Chester, PA Mayor Claims PA LNG Export Project for Philly “Dead”). He bases his claim on Joe Biden’s recent declaration that all LNG export projects are “on pause” (see White House Makes it Official – Biden Declares War on LNG Exports). The radical-left Roots has been against the Penn LNG project from the beginning. However, the CEO of Penn America Energy, which plans to build the Penn LNG project, says it’s “not dead yet.”
CNX Exploring LNG, CNG, Hydrogen Opportunities to Drive Appalachian E&P Growth - CNX Resources Corp. expects efficiencies and new wells in the Appalachian Basin to help lower costs and maintain natural gas output in the years ahead as it explores alternative fuels. CNX, the first Lower 48 exploration and production (E&P) company to report fourth quarter earnings, said strong execution of last year’s program, along with more Utica Shale wells coming online in central Pennsylvania, should help drive capital lower moving forward. The company expects production volumes of 570-590 Bcfe this year. It also expects to spend $575-625 million. Heading into 2025, management is aiming to maintain production at 580 Bcfe, with annual spending set to fall below $500 million.
New York legislators propose ban on use of carbon dioxide to extract gas – WSKG - New York legislators introduced a bill on Friday to ban the use of carbon dioxide to drill and extract natural gas from the ground. The proposed legislation comes in response to a Texas-based company's plan to use carbon dioxide to drill for natural gas in the Southern Tier’s Marcellus and Utica Shales. The company, called Southern Tier CO2 to Clean Energy Solutions, has been asking landowners to lease their land. The state already prohibits high-volume hydraulic fracking, which uses water to extract gas from the ground. Legislators sponsoring the new bill say it builds on the previous ban, which the state formalized in 2015.“It’s legislation that will simply expand our current definition of fracking, to include not being able to use carbon dioxide as another medium to do dangerous fracking in New York state,” said Assemblymember Anna Kelles, the bill’s lead sponsor in the assembly.The actor Mark Ruffalo, who has long been involved in the movement to ban fracking in the state, joined the lawmakers for the announcement.“This is a fight we're willing to have,” Ruffalo said. “It's ridiculous that the gas industry is now trying to get around our fracking ban by using an experimental form of extracting gas out of shale with carbon dioxide.” Scientists and environmental advocates who joined the press conference emphasized that using carbon dioxide to drill and extract gas poses potential health and environmental risks to nearby communities. The process requires drilling into shale, which can put underground aquifers and water sources at risk of contamination. The rupturing of other pipelines that carry carbon dioxide has also resulted in serious health concerns.In December, more than 90 environmental, public health, and community organizations sent a letter to Governor Kathy Hochul and other officials calling for a ban on the practice.Southern Tier CO2 to Clean Energy Solutions did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
New York Democrats want to ban CO2 fracking in state budget - The fight to ban fracking in New York is back.State lawmakers on Friday introduced new legislationto expand the state's ban of the controversial drilling process to extract natural gas to include a newer practice that uses carbon dioxide to extract methane and circumvents the current policy.Fracking was first prohibited in the state a decade ago, and permanently banned in the 2021 state budget.Top Democrats in the Legislature want to expand the law to bar the use of CO2 as a medium to frack natural gas in New York. Texas-based company Southern Tier CO2 to Clean Energy Solutions has its sights set on drilling from the reserves of natural gas in upstate's Marcellus and Utica shales — using carbon dioxide instead of water."This is hydrofracking called by a different name," said bill sponsor Sen. Lea Webb, a lifelong Southern Tier resident. The legislation would make it illegal to push methane out of shale using high-pressure liquified carbon dioxide. Environmental advocates argue the practice requires horizontal drilling into shale, which releases toxic hydrocarbons like methane and cancer-causing vapors that threaten the public health of workers, surrounding communities and the environment."The fracking process, the extraction of methane, regardless of the solution used is the problem," said Assembly sponsor Anna Kelles, a Democrat from Ithaca. "This is just the current form."Southern Tier Solutions has sent letters to landowners in Broome, Chemung and Tioga counties offering a $10 lease for them to make a profit after they extract methane and storage CO2 on their properties. Last month, company president Bryce Phillips told Spectrum News 1 the company will strive to lease as many as 1 million acres to support up to a dozen 300 megawatt power plants, and to help power the Micron semiconductor chip manufacturing facility in Syracuse.Southern Tier Solutions has declined to publicly say how many people have signed leases with the company, or who is funding its operations."We have to do something and we most certainly will," Webb said during a virtual press conference Friday. "It is important folks even know what this means."As the company looks to expand across the state, Democrats focused on reducing New York's carbon emissions want to stop the practice before it takes off.Lawmakers like Assemblywoman Donna Lupardo wrote to the state Department of Environmental Conservation about the company's plans, and argue its project is not in keeping with the state's emission reduction goals set under the Climate Act. The agencyresponded Dec. 8 in a letter that the CO2 fracking process the company describes on its website has not been tried in New York to date.Democrats leading the charge to include the proposal in the budget, including Senate Finance Committee chair Liz Krueger, are hopeful they've started the push early enough to get in front of the issue, citing little coordinated support of the company or pushback to expanding the ban."I see no organized resistance to this," Lupardo said. "I don't necessarily see the [oil and gas] industry rallying around this group. I think we're going to want to get this on an agenda as soon as possible before it gets any additional traction."Academy Award-nominated actor Mark Ruffalo is again bringing the issue into the spotlight to push back against the natural gas industry. Ruffalo was a staunch advocate who fought to ban fracking in the state in the late 2000s until it first became law in 2014. "Make no mistake about it: If they start in the Southern Tier, that's not where this is going to end," Ruffalo told reporters Friday. This is going statewide because the Marcellus and Utica shales cover most of this state." Gov. Kathy Hochul has not indicated if she supports the proposal, but it could make budget negotiations depending on what the Legislature includes in the Assembly and Senate's counter budget proposals.Republican lawmakers who stood against the original fracking ban are already taking issue with expanding it. Sen. Tom O'Mara, ranking member of the Finance Committee, said it's too soon to ban the practice, and setting regulations should be left to scientists and experts — not elected officials."This is one aspect that's new that should be explored," O'Mara said Friday. "And it should be reviewed by scientists, not by knee-jerk, far-left wing Democrat members of the New York state Legislature in Albany."O'Mara represents Chemung and Tioga counties where the Southern Tier is soliciting landowners, including many communities adjacent to the Marcellus and Utica shales. He says the project could be a potential boost to the declining upstate economy."Across the Southern Tier where we're a very struggling economy, to not be able to take advantage of the most abundant natural resource that we have is very concerning to me," O'Mara said.
Environmentalists demand Northeast governors oppose gas pipeline expansion project - A multistate coalition of over 90 environmental organizations is demanding that the governors of Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island and New York publicly oppose a proposal to expand a major natural gas pipeline in the Northeast.Known as “Project Maple,” the expansion project would substantially increase the capacity of the Algonquin Gas Transmission line, which carries fracked natural gas from northern New Jersey through New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island and into Massachusetts where it connects to another pipeline at the Weymouth Natural Gas Compressor Station.The company behind the project, Enbridge, says piping more natural gas into the region will help stabilize energy prices, make the electric grid more reliable and help states meet their climate goals by burning less oil on cold days. But the coalition opposing the project — which includes groups like the Sierra Club, the Acadia Center, the Conservation Law Foundation and 350 Mass — disagrees.“More pipelines will only exacerbate our existing fracked-gas dependence, raise our energy bills, and harm our communities,” the coalition members wrote in letters they recently delivered to the four governors. “In order to mitigate the climate crisis, and to protect our communities, the amount of fossil fuels burned must be decreased immediately and [states must implement] policies that ensure the just and rapid transition to a cleaner, renewable energy-powered regenerative economy.”Andrea Honore, a resident of Weymouth, was one of the environmental activists who hand-delivered the letter to Gov. Maura Healey’s office this week.“Maura Healey had a record as [Attorney General] of standing up against gas and oil companies,” she said. “Now as governor, we would like to know how she plans on addressing Project Maple.”As recently as last fall, Gov. Healey has said, “No new fossil fuel power plants. No new fossil fuel transmission lines,” but Honore says language like that is cold comfort. Project Maple, she pointed out, would not technically be a “new” fossil fuel pipeline.When pressed on where Healey's administration stands on Project Maple, Maria Hardiman, a spokeswoman for Massachusetts Executive Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs, wrote in an email that the administration is “concerned that a large gas pipeline expansion will not address reliability issues in a way that is consistent with our net-zero emissions limits.” And while this is not an explicit promise to oppose Project Maple, Hardiman noted that the project is still in the planning phases and may not turn out to be viable. She also pointed out that late last year, the state’s Department of Public Utilities issued a landmark ruling intended to reduce the state’s reliance on natural gas and encourage the shift to cleaner sources of energy.
Why a natural gas storage climate ‘disaster’ could happen again - On a November afternoon in 2022, a 57-year-old well tapped into an underground natural gas storage reservoir in western Pennsylvania started leaking, fast enough that people a few miles away heard a loud, jet engine-like noise. By the time the leak was stopped nearly two weeks later, roughly 16,000 metric tons of methane had escaped into the atmosphere, the equivalent of more than the annual greenhouse gas emissions from 300,000 gas-powered cars. The blowout of a well at the Rager Mountain gas storage field was the worst methane leak from underground storage since Aliso Canyon in California in 2015. That incident forced thousands of people from their homes and sickened many of them, taking four months to contain. In 2021, 35,000 plaintiffs in one class-action lawsuit were awarded up to $1.5 billion in damages. While not as large or imminently dangerous to residents, the Rager Mountain leak was a “disaster,” according to one Pennsylvania regulator. Bloomberg labeled it the United States’worst climate disaster that year. The natural gas that leaked methane in Pennsylvania and California is not stored in tanks but in giant underground geological formations accessed by multiple wells. There are about 400 such storage fields across 32 states.According to a new report, there are thousands more potential opportunities for a similar situation across the country. The new analysis of data collected by federal regulators suggests there are as many as 11,446 storage wells in the country with the same key risk as the wells that failed at Rager Mountain and Aliso Canyon: They have only a single barrier to failure.“That population is a lot larger than we had estimated, or other researchers had estimated with state [data],” says Greg Lackey, an author on the study and researcher at the Department of Energy’s National Energy Technology Laboratory. All but one of Pennsylvania’s 49 gas storage fields has at least one potential single point of failure well, researchers found.Natural gas is primarily made up of methane, a greenhouse gas 80 times more powerful than carbon dioxide in the short-term. Methane leaks from oil and gas infrastructure are under increasing scrutiny in the United States and worldwide, as stopping them represents a relatively cheap and effective way to prevent greenhouse gas emissions, the primary cause of global warming. Leaks from gas storage are only one part of the industry’s methane problem. Such facilities also are at risk of dramatic blowouts that are hard to control because they are connected to large, pressurized reservoirs of gas.
Lawsuit Against WV’s 2022 Forced Pooling Law Still Alive, for Now - Marcellus Drilling News - Hopefully, we’re near the end of an effort to overturn a bill passed in early 2022 by the West Virginia legislature, Senate Bill (SB) 694, which finally brought forced pooling for shale wells to the Mountain State after eight years of trying (see WV House Passes Forced Pooling Bill, Done Deal When Gov Signs). A lawsuit brought by two West Virginia landowners seeking to overturn the state’s forced pooling (i.e., unitization) law was put on pause by a federal judge in December 2022 (see WV Landowner Lawsuit to Block Forced Pooling Law Dealt Another Blow). The federal judge said the lawsuit belongs in state court and that he did not have jurisdiction over the case. West Virginia officials disagreed and appealed the ruling to the next rung up the federal court ladder (see WV Appeals Lawsuit re Forced Pooling Law to Higher Fed Court). It took a while, but the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit ruled two days ago that the federal district court judge didn’t do his job right (he DOES have jurisdiction) and bounced the matter back to him for resolution.
Ohio woman charged after latching to Mountain Valley Pipeline equipment - — An Ohio woman is now facing several charges after locking herself to equipment at the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) construction site for nearly eight hours, in Giles County, on Monday morning. Virginia State Police (VSP) told WFXR that on Jan. 29 shortly after 7 a.m., troopers were notified that a group of protestors was gathered near Pocahontas Road in the Jefferson National Forest. State police said when authorities arrived, they found 42-year-old Madeline S. Ffitch, of Millfield, Ohio, attached to a drill. We’re told Ffitch used a “sleeping dragon” device to affix to the drill. As a result, a crew of specially-trained troopers responded to the scene to safely remove here from the device. According to VSP, Ffitch was checked by medics at the scene and was taken to the Giles County Magistrate Office.She was charged with the following:
- Unauthorized Use of a Vehicle
- Trespassing
- Two counts of Obstruction of Justice
- Interfering with Property Rights of Another
Ffitch is being held without bond in the New River Valley Regional Jail.Following these events, Appalachians Against Pipelines released the following statement from Ffitch stating that she is trying to ensure the safety of Appalachian families.I think being a parent has helped me be more fearless, more bold, get my priorities straight with what’s important. I take my cues from other mothers who make great sacrifices everyday to protect their children and families…And I also have a huge amount of respect that Appalachian families, especially Appalachian women, have been pushing for years to make sure there is clean water and clean air for their children to drink and breathe in a place that is too often seen as a sacrifice zone. I think mothers have common sense, fearlessness, and a no-nonsense sensibility to bring truth to power.”This protest is one of many that have occurred at the Mountain Valley Pipeline construction sites over the last four years. Work on the pipeline has been blocked by the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in Richmond. However, in July of 2023, the Supreme Court allowed construction to resume.The natural gas pipeline is being built through Virginia and West Virginia. The system spans approximately 303 miles and will be regulated by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.In response to the recent protest, organizers of the Mountain Valley Pipeline project said these dangerous activities must end.“In keeping with stringent security protocols, unauthorized persons are not permitted to access the right-of-way during construction or to be within the marked limits of disturbance. As we have consistently stated, the safe construction and operation of the MVP project remains our top priority and ensuring public safety is paramount,” said a spokesperson with the MVP.
2nd source of Hemlock oil spill found, EPA concerned on how removed material was disposed (WJRT) - Officials with the Environmental Protection Agency have recently found a second pipe leaking oil, contributing to an oil spill in the Hemlock area. There are now concerns some of the material wasn't disposed of properly. With the second pipe located, the cost of the clean-up is also going up. The spill is now creating flooding problems. "This is a major spill. This is not your ordinary, run-of-the-mill oil tank that got a hole punched in it. This is pretty significant," is what an EPA official told Saginaw County Public Works Commissioner Brian Wendling. The EPA says the source of that “significant” oil leak is on the property of C & J Bark Haulers in Hemlock, as oil was leaking from a sump pump into the McClellan Run drainage ditch for quite some time. The leak is bigger than first thought. "They found a second outlet pipe to the drain,” says Wendling. “EGLE (Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes and Energy) required them to shut that off, which created some water issues out front on M-46.” Doing so has caused flooding problems on nearby properties along M-46. "As a result, what has happened is caused some of this oil to start surfacing all over the place on the property," says Wendling. The latest EPA report on the leak indicates a total of 23,000 gallons of what is described as oily-liquid waste was transported and disposed of at a treatment facility in Kalkaska. The report also states that a semi-truck was hauling some of the excess water away from the site. An EPA official followed the semi-truck to see where it was dumping the water, which may have pollutants in it. The official saw the truck dump the oily water into another drainage ditch about two miles from the site. "Sounds like that was actually dumped into another county drain,” says Wendling. “We just found that out, so EGLE is requiring some testing of that.” The EPA did not respond to questions about that possible illegal dumping situation. The owner of the C & J Bark Haulers said in the past that the company is cooperating with the investigation. The original cost of the clean-up was set at $200,000, but it's now up to $850,000 and expected to climb.
3K gallons of oil recovered from Michigan trucking firm spill - — Federal regulators say they have recovered more than 3,000 gallons of oil and counting after the material escaped a Saginaw County truck yard. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency officials say the source of a large volume of oil they’ve spent the past month recovering from county drain in the Richland Township is “without a doubt” an adjacent trucking company named C&J Bark Haulers. “There’s definitely some type of historic release that’s been happening from that facility,” said Jon Gulch, EPA on-scene coordinator. “Then some type of spill happened at the end of December that caused that major amount of oil to leave the site.” As of mid-January, the EPA has spent more than $500,000 cleaning up a serious spill that state regulators discovered Jan. 3 after village of Hemlock residents began reporting oily odors. Most recovered oil has come from a county drain named McClellan Run, but Gulch said large volumes remain to be cleaned up from the truck yard and an adjacent railroad ditch. The material is a blend of fuel and lubricant oils of the type that would be used in vehicles and heavy equipment. Exactly what caused the spill is undetermined. The site features “many, many semi trucks,” he said. Gulch said C&J Bark Haulers ownership are letting EPA and responding agencies stage cleanup equipment on the company’s property, but that’s the extent of cooperation. “They’ve expressed to me that they don’t feel they are responsible and that they aren’t going to do any off-site cleanup,” Gulch said. The Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes and Energy (EGLE) and EPA have been coordinating cleanup off the company’s property. Gulch estimated an additional 5,000 gallons of oil must yet be recovered from a railroad ditch, which was receiving oil from a sump pump that’s now plugged. The EPA constructed an underflow dam to stop floating oil, which has been collected from the drain’s north branch with absorbent pads and vacuum trucks. The McLellan drain, which was rebuilt about five years ago, connects to the Shiawassee River and Saginaw River via Swan Creek. Oil had been tracked more than a mile downstream. According to EPA, a significant amount of contamination remains on the C&J property itself, where oil was documented as “bubbling out of the soil,” according to EGLE. Brian Wendling, Saginaw County Public Works Commissioner, said the county has taken a backseat role in the cleanup, but wants to see the drain and adjacent properties restored. “The county cannot take on any costs and I don’t expect any of the landowners out there to bear any expense for this,” he said. Gulch said the cleanup was hampered by freezing weather and snow accumulation this month, but the stretch of milder weather ahead should re-accelerate removal efforts. According to EPA documents, the closure of sump pumps on the C&J property coupled with recent snowmelt has caused some flooding around the site. The company has used tanker trucks to remove excess water, but EPA officials followed one truck on Jan 25 and watched it dump its oily water load into a local waterway about two miles away. Another truck was stopped afterward. “The facility will need to be cleaned up at some point or it’s just going to keep releasing to the environment into an area we just cleaned,” Gulch said. Gulch said the scale is “more than I typically have responded to from oil spills from just a facility.” “It was a significant amount of oil that left the site at some point.”
Drilling Permits on the Uptick in Lower 48 Natural Gas Plays - Drilling permits in the natural gas-rich Marcellus, Utica and Haynesville shale plays showed strong month/month growth in December 2023 but remained 16% below the December 2022 total, according to the latest tally by Evercore ISI. The three formations, which together supply about 53% of Lower 48 gas output, had a combined issued permit count of 359 in December 2023, versus 283 in November and 427 in December 2022. The Marcellus permit total was 122, up from 107 in November but down from the year-earlier level of 189, said the Evercore team led by James West.
US weekly LNG exports down to 20 shipments - US liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports decreased in the week ending January 24 compared to the week before, according to the Energy Information Administration.The agency said in its weekly natural gas report that 20 LNG carriers departed the US plants between January 18 and 24, seven vessels less compared to the week before.Moreover, the total capacity of these LNG vessels is 76 Bcf, the EIA said, citing shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance. Average natural gas deliveries to US LNG export terminals increased by 5.6 percent (0.7 Bcf/d) week over week, averaging 13.2 Bcf/d, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Louisiana increased by 14.2 percent (1.1 Bcf/d) to 9.1 Bcf/d, while natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Texas decreased by 11.7 percent (0.4 Bcf/d) to 3.2 Bcf/d. The agency said that natural gas deliveries to terminals outside the Gulf Coast were essentially unchanged at 0.9 Bcf/d. Cheniere’s Sabine Pass plant shipped seven cargoes and the company’s Corpus Christi facility sent four shipments during the period under review. Sempra Infrastructure’s Cameron LNG terminal shipped three LNG cargoes, while the Freeport LNG terminal, Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass terminal, and the Cove Point facility each shipped two cargoes during the week under review. The Elba Island LNG terminal did not ship cargoes. Last week, Texas and Louisiana experienced a cold snap, which affected operations at the Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi plants, the Cameron LNG terminal, and the Freeport terminal, according to reports. This report week, the Henry Hub spot price fell 43 cents from $2.87 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $2.44/MMBtu this Wednesday, the agency said. The price of the February 2024 NYMEX contract decreased 22.9 cents, from $2.870/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.641/MMBtu this Wednesday, it said.
Europe continues to be main destination for US LNG shipments -- France was the top destination for US liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies for the second straight month in November as Europe continues to receive the majority of volumes produced at US liquefaction plants, according to the Department of Energy’s newest monthly report.The DOE report shows that US terminals shipped 58.9 Bcf of LNG to France in November, 47.6 Bcf to the United Kingdom, 36.2 Bcf to the Netherlands, 31.2 Bcf to Turkiye, and 26.1 Bcf to South Korea.These five countries took 51.8 percent of total US LNG exports in November.In October, France was also the top destination for US LNG exports.Prior to this, the Netherlands was the top destination for US LNG supplies for five months in a row. The Netherlands was the number one destination for US LNG supplies during January-November last year and the country is followed by France, the UK, Japan, Spain, South Korea, Germany, Italy, China, and India, the DOE data shows.The US exported in total 386.2 Bcf of LNG in November to 28 countries, up by 28 percent compared to the same month last year and down 1 percent from the prior month, the DOE report shows.Europe received 267 Bcf, or 69.1 percent, of these volumes, Asia received 101.4 Bcf, or 26.3 percent, and Latin America/Caribbean received 17.8 Bcf, or 4.6 percent.US terminals shipped 124 LNG cargoes in November, the same as in the prior month.Cheniere’s Sabine Pass plant sent 42 cargoes and its Corpus Christi terminal shipped 18 cargoes, while the Freeport LNG terminal shipped 19 cargoes and Sempra’s Cameron LNG plant sent 23 shipments during November.In addition, Venture Global’s Calcasieu plant sent 13 cargoes, Elba Island LNG sent 3 cargoes, and Cove Point LNG dispatched 6 shipments.According to DOE’s report, the average price by export terminal reached 7.23/MMBtu in November and 7.35/MMBtu in the January-November period.Moreover, the report said that in the period from February 2016 through November 2023, the US exported 5508 cargoes or 17,514.2 Bcf to 41 countries.The DOE data shows that South Korea remains the top destination for US LNG with 568 cargoes, followed by Japan with 445 cargoes, France with 442 cargoes, the UK with 421 cargoes, and Spain with 417 cargoes.
US pauses decisions on LNG export terminals - The Biden administration will “temporary pause” pending decisions for liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals. “My administration is announcing today a temporary pause on pending decisions of liquefied natural gas exports – with the exception of unanticipated and immediate national security emergencies,” the White House said in a statement. The US will pause pending decisions on exports of LNG to non-FTA countries until the Department of Energy can update the underlying analyses for authorizations. “During this period, we will take a hard look at the impacts of LNG exports on energy costs, America’s energy security, and our environment. This pause on new LNG approvals sees the climate crisis for what it is: the existential threat of our time,” the statement said. This move, which comes as President Joe Biden enters an election year, has been reported in several media reports this week and it could potentially delay final investment decisions on several projects. The projects include Venture Global’s CP2 LNG terminal, which is awaiting the final approval from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and also the non-FTA export authorization from the Department of Energy. Responding to media reports earlier this week, a spokeswoman for Venture Global said that “such an action would shock the global energy market, having the impact of an economic sanction, and send a devastating signal to our allies that they can no longer rely on the United States.” “The true irony is this policy would hurt the climate and lead to increased emissions as it would force the world to pivot to coal,” she said. Texas-based Energy Transfer is also planning to take a final decision this year to build its Lake Charles LNG export facility in Louisiana, depending on the export approval by the DOE. Moreover, Commonwealth LNG also aims to take FID this year on its 9.3 mtpa LNG facility under development in Cameron, Louisiana.
Climate groups notch big win on LNG - Environmental groups are heralding the Biden administration’s pause on pending and future applications to export liquefied gas as a major win for climate activism. The White House announced the pause Friday, pledging in a statement from President Joe Biden to “heed the calls of young people and frontline communities who are using their voices to demand action from those with the power to act.” DOE’s pause doesn’t affect currently approved exports.Multiple environmental and advocacy organizations used the word “monumental” in statements to describe the Biden administration’s pause on LNG export approvals, which is expected to last several months. Gulf Coast front-line groups Friday canceled a planned, three-day sit-in next month at the Energy Department after the White House’s announcement.“This pause is a significant achievement because it paves the way for potential rejections and slows down the projects, making it harder for them to secure financing,” said Roishetta Ozane, founder of the environmental justice group Vessel Project of Louisiana, in a statement. On a press call Friday, Bill McKibben, founder of climate action group Third Act, said he hopes that the administration’s decision is a “beginning to the end” to treatment of the Gulf Coast as a sacrifice zone, that “maybe this campaign has helped start to wake people up around the country to understanding just what kind of abuse and damage has gone on down there.” Later, McKibben said the pause is the “imposition, really for the first time, of a climate test for new fossil fuel infrastructure and that climate test won’t be passed” by any LNG export projects.On the same call with reporters, Travis Dardar, a commercial fisherman in Louisiana who has reached out to Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm on X, said he’s excited about the White House pause but noted a pause can be “unpaused at any time.” Dardar is among a wide coalition of groups that oppose the Calcasieu Pass 2 project, proposed by developer Venture Global. The project — known as CP2 — is still awaiting approval from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, which so far hasn’t put the export terminal on its agenda.Senior administration officials on Thursday said the pause wouldn’t affect CP2, but the pause could include CP2 if FERC, an independent agency, approved the project. That’s because DOE said Thursday the pause applies to “current and future” pending applications until the review is finished.LNG Allies, an industry group, said the White House’s pause on LNG approvals is not aligned with a pledge the Biden administration made to the European Union after Russia launched its war against Ukraine in February 2022.Fred Hutchison, president and CEO of the group, said there’s still “substantial European interest in additional U.S. LNG contracts,” pointing to deals signed in recent months.“That interest won’t dissipate during a formal ‘pause’ in U.S. government decisionmaking to conduct more studies,” Hutchison said Friday.The administration’s pause does not affect the United States’ ability to supply allies in Europe and Asia, Granholm said Thursday on a call with reporters.“Through existing LNG production and export infrastructure, the U.S. has — and will continue — to deliver for our allies,” according to a fact sheet from the White House.Former President Donald Trump’s campaign panned the move. Biden “has once again caved to the radical demands of the environmental extremists in his administration,” said Karoline Leavitt, campaign press secretary, in a statement. “This decision to block the approval of new facilities to export American natural gas is one more disastrous self-inflicted wound that will further undermine America’s economic and national security,” she said, promising a different approach from Trump, if elected.
Inside Biden's climate test for LNG - The Biden administration is taking a fresh look at what U.S. liquefied natural gas exports mean for climate change. And the review could push the Energy Department to make President Joe Biden’s temporary pause on new LNG approvals permanent.Experts say the review will likely focus on two key assumptions that DOE has made under both the Trump and Biden administrations: that gas is a relatively clean fuel and that U.S. exports would replace other fossil fuels abroad, but not renewables.DOE’s current assertions on both issues came from a 2019 National Energy Technology Laboratory report, which found that “cradle-through-delivery” emissions from LNG exports are negligible. But experts see serious flaws with its methodology.The climate test announced by Biden last week could reverberate through global energy markets. If DOE finds that LNG exports are a significant driver of rising temperatures, it would be harder for the department to justify future export projects based on public interest. The Natural Gas Act requires that DOE make such a determination before approving export projects — a provision intended to safeguard U.S. consumers from high gas prices.If the department updates its analysis to attribute hefty carbon emissions to LNG facilities, that change, coupled with higher social cost of greenhouse gas figures recently adopted by the administration, could show that the climate harms of new projects greatly outweigh their economic benefits.“There’s a reason that we’re so happy and the oil and gas lobby is so panicked,” said Jeremy Symons, an environmental consultant and former EPA climate policy adviser. “And that is both of us know the same thing: These projects just won’t stand up to this kind of scrutiny.”The national lab’s cornerstone report in 2019 on life-cycle greenhouse gases of LNG relies on data from EPA’s Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program, which covers about 8,000 oil and gas sources, and from an annual inventory of emissions and carbon sinks the U.S. submits to the U.N. climate body.Environmentalists have long criticized those programs for relying on industry-furnished data based on assumptions about equipment leak rates that didn’t track with emissions levels detected through independent aerial surveys.Symons, who published a paper in November on the climate consequences of LNG exports, noted that several peer-reviewed studies based on empirical data were published in the last several years. Many of them showed that leak rates from production, processing and transmission are substantially higher than the lab’s report estimates.“Methane leaks at every stage of the process in our data has been slow to catch up, but we know a lot more now about what’s happening now,” Symons said.The Biden administration is now engaged in a broader overhaul of its assumptions about the life-cycle emissions of gas. So far, that has included tough new Clean Air Act standards and a proposal to increase default leak rates at oil and gas operations. The latter policy, which is due to be final this year, could greatly increase both the number of oil and gas operations required to report methane — the main ingredient in natural gas — and the volume of emissions they report. A forthcoming report by Cornell University ecology professor Robert Howarth, currently undergoing peer review, found that U.S. LNG exports have higher life-cycle emissions than coal, when the updated data was used.Max Sarinsky, an attorney with the Institute for Policy Integrity at New York University Law School, said if the Energy Department updates its analytical assumptions for gas, it could significantly change its calculus on approving new projects. “The harder piece of it is thinking through more seriously how exporting gas will affect the energy mix globally — and particularly in the countries that we’re exporting to — and what that could mean for the pace of renewables going forward,” said Sarinsky. The 2019 report acknowledged that gas has a climate footprint. The reason it asserted that exporting it abroad is neutral for the climate, or even mildly positive, hangs on another assumption: that an influx of U.S. gas to foreign markets will push aside other kinds of fossil fuels, but not renewable power.To reach that conclusion, the federal laboratory analyzed U.S. LNG’s potential to compete with three kinds of fuel: regional coal, LNG from other countries, and Russian gas transported by pipeline to Europe or Asia.“The use of U.S. LNG exports for power production in European and Asian markets will not increase global [greenhouse gas] emissions from a life cycle perspective,” the laboratory said. DOE has repeated that assertion when approving LNG export projects under both the Trump and Biden administrations. LNG projects that have already been approved in the U.S. won’t be affected by Biden’s pause last week. The projects that will be would have come online around the end of this decade. And their owners expect them to remain in operation for decades — well past when scientists say the world must stop burning fossil fuels.White House climate adviser Ali Zaidi on Friday linked the pause to last month’s agreement by nearly 200 nations to transition away from fossil fuels.
Biden’s Natural Gas Export Freeze Draws Fire From Moderate Democrats - -- President Joe Biden’s move to pause liquefied natural gas export approvals won praise from progressives and climate activists - but some moderate Democrats from gas producing states are saying not so fast. A group of 10 Democratic House lawmakers from states including Texas, Alaska and California sent a letter to Biden asking him to “refocus” his policies on LNG exports. “The United States must continue to lead the way in ensuring the security of our own energy supplies and those of our allies,” the lawmakers, led by Texas Representative Marc Veasey, wrote in the letter made public Friday. “Every molecule of US LNG exported helps limit the growth of global emissions and provides energy security around the world.” Senate Democrats from the battle-ground state of Pennsylvania, the second-largest natural gas producing state in the US, were more pointed in their criticism. “While the immediate impacts on Pennsylvania remain to be seen, we have concerns about the long-term impacts that this pause will have on the thousands of jobs in Pennsylvania’s natural gas industry,” Senators Bob Casey and John Fetterman said in a joint statement Thursday. “If this decision puts Pennsylvania energy jobs at risk, we will push the Biden administration to reverse this decision.” The Biden administration announced it was pausing the approval of licenses to export LNG while it scrutinized the affect of the shipments on climate change and other factors amid a campaign by environmentalists and others who have come to view the projects as a symbol of the president’s green credentials. Opponents of the massive export terminals, which include environmentalist Bill McKibben, who successfully led a push to block the Keystone XL pipeline a decade ago, argue the infrastructure will lock in the use of fossil fuels for decades to come. “We don’t have time to keep pretending that natural gas is a climate solution,” Representative Jared Huffman, a California Democrat, said during a Capitol Hill press conference where frontline environmental leaders declared victory in securing the pause. “We don’t have time to keep pretending that LNG is clean energy.” But critics of the moratorium, which threatens to disrupt billions of dollars in LNG export projects from companies such as Commonwealth LNG and Energy Transfer LP, have dismissed it as a political ploy to help Biden get the votes of young progressive voters angered by the president’s decision to approve the Willow drilling project in Alaska as well as his support for Israel. It also puts lawmakers from natural gas producing states in a politically tough position. Senator John Hickenlooper, a Colorado Democrat who once drank fracking fluid to vouch for the safety of the drilling technique, said he needed more information before deciding if he supported a move being pushed by Republicans to strip the Energy Department’s role in approving LNG export licenses entirely. “I’d like to get the facts of the issue before I start making decisions on whose authority should be expanded or limited,” Hickenlooper said in an interview. Biden’s LNG export pause will be scrutinized at a pair of House and Senate hearings next week, including one led by Senator Joe Manchin, the West Virginia Democrat who hasn’t been shy about opposing Biden administration policies that hurt his state’s abundant supply of both coal and natural gas. But Manchin, who has expressed concern about the impact of exporting LNG on domestic prices in the past, issued a statement following the White House’s LNG moratorium announcement that stopped short of saying he opposed the move. “I have always said that our first concern must be protecting American consumers and growing American businesses, and we need a safety valve in place to ensure Americans aren’t unnecessarily stuck paying a premium for the abundant resources we’re blessed to have,” Manchin said. “But as the superpower of the world, we also have a responsibility to our allies and trading partners who, in our absence, may have no other choice but to turn to countries that don’t share our values.”
Opinion | Biden’s natural gas curbs aren’t good for the climate or the world - The Washington Post - By the Editorial Board -- Currently accounting for 22 percent of global primary energy consumption, natural gas will remain crucial to the world’s energy mix through 2050, even as alternative energy use grows, according to the latest International Energy Agency projections. Though it’s a fossil fuel and, as such, a source of carbon dioxide emissions, gas still provides baseload grid power needed to complement renewable electricity, and it’s generally cleaner than coal. Unfortunately for the world, Russia produces much of this vital resource, as Europe discovered to its dismay when President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine — with an army that had been funded by earnings from Russian gas exports. Fortunately for the world, the United States has emerged as the top exporter of the supercooled form known as liquefied natural gas, or LNG. In fact, after the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Biden administration launched a largely successful effort to help allies substitute American LNG, delivered via ships, for pipelined Russian gas. “The United States now plays a critical balancing role in the global LNG market, adding supply and flexibility that has boosted global energy security,” in the words of a recent Center for Strategic and International Studies report.On Friday, however, that same Biden administration ordered a de facto halt to the approval of new facilities for exporting the resource to countries with which the United States does not have free-trade agreements — a category that includes all of Europe. It’s an election-year sop to climate activists that will do much more to unsettle vital U.S. alliances than to save the planet. At issue were federal permits for LNG projects planned on the Gulf of Mexico coast. One of these, known as Calcasieu Pass 2, or CP2, has already secured financing, and the company that owns the Louisiana facility had signed a 20-year contract to supply Germany. But under the new Biden administration policy, approvals could be delayed through the November election, while regulators apply heightened scrutiny to the impacts on carbon emissions and domestic energy costs.To be sure, the eight LNG export projects currently in operation will remain unaffected, as will 10 projects already approved and under construction. In the short run, there will be little disruption to Europe’s economy or, for that matter, to what is generally a well-supplied market around the world. The problem is what might happen beyond that in, say, the next quarter-century. “If additional U.S. LNG export capacities don’t materialize, it would risk increasing and prolonging the global supply imbalance,” warned Eurogas, the trade association for Europe’s natural gas industry. “This would inevitably prolong the period of price volatility in Europe and could lead to price increases with the consequent implications that would have for economic turmoil and social impact.”The main short-run damage the administration’s obviously political decision does is to the United States’ reputation for rational, fact-based policymaking, and for wise consideration of climate control in the context of geopolitics. You cannot change demand for energy by destroying supply: If the United States did indeed curtail LNG exports, it would just drive customers into the arms of competitors such as Australia, Qatar, Algeria and, yes, Russia. Quite possibly, some potential customers would choose to meet their needs with coal instead.
Biden’s 'Pause' on LNG Exports Is Impulsive and Destructive | Cato at Liberty Blog - On January 26, the Biden administration announced it would pause new approvals of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. The official news followed several leaked stories—including one prominent article by The New York Times—that triggered criticism from LNG supporters and praise from climate activists.The announcement appears to be a concession to the “keep it in the ground” movement and the 65 federal lawmakers who asked for the policy change in November 2023. However, some pragmatic progressives see the pause as misguided: “The urgency of the energy transition cannot excuse counterproductive purity tests,” wrote Elan Sykes and Neel Brown of the Progressive Policy Institute.From the libertarian perspective, the pause is unwise energy policy, an encroachment on free trade, and a continuation of the Biden administration’s use of uncertainty as a political weapon against energy suppliers. Let’s dig in. LNG is the liquefied version of natural gas (mostly methane, CH4). Shippers cool the gas to approximately negative 260 degrees Fahrenheit to make it a liquid that is portable via tanker ships. International trade in LNG has spiked in part because of the abundant natural gas resources in the United States, which were enabled by technological improvements in unconventional production from shale formations.The United States did not export significant quantities of LNG until about 2015, so one might say the industry is in uncharted waters. The aggressive growth in LNG exports (particularly relative to historic levels of imports) can be seen in the graph below. (Source.)Although the large quantities of exports are new, the legal apparatus is not. Specifically, under the Natural Gas Act (NGA), the Department of Energy (DOE) must approve any import or export of natural gas. Congress passed the NGA in 1938, so the statute predates the organization of the DOE itself, which was formed by Congress in 1977 by the DOE Organization Act.Before the DOE was established the responsibilities in this section of the NGA were carried out by the Federal Power Commission (renamed in 1977 to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission or FERC). Now the two agencies each regulate different parts of the LNG industry. DOE explains their roles as follows:The NGA directs DOE to evaluate applications to export LNG to non‐FTA [Free Trade Agreement] countries. … Typically, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) has jurisdiction over the siting, construction, and operation of LNG export facilities in the US In these cases, FERC leads the environmental impact assessments of proposed projects consistent with the National Environmental Policy Act, and DOE is typically a cooperating agency as part of these reviews. Obtaining a DOE authorization to export LNG to non‐FTA countries is an important step for most projects in their path toward financing and construction.The Biden administration said the DOE will now scrutinize applications to export LNG through the lens of climate change and other factors in determining whether additional US LNG exports are in the public interest. The White House stated:The current economic and environmental analyses DOE uses to underpin its LNG export authorizations are roughly five years old and no longer adequately account for considerations like potential energy cost increases for American consumers and manufacturers beyond current authorizations or the latest assessment of the impact of greenhouse gas emissions. Today, we have an evolving understanding of the market need for LNG, the long‐term supply of LNG, and the perilous impacts of methane on our planet.The DOE has never denied an LNG export application, so this is a big shift in public policy.
LNG Sector Tallies Permit Pause Impact to Earnings as Contract Holders Raise the Alarm - The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) pause on new export project permits is not expected to impact the bottom lines of LNG equipment manufacturers in the mid-term, but others across the value chain are still assessing the temporary suspension’s potential effects. Following last week’s decision by the Biden administration to pause DOE approval of worldwide exports of U.S. liquefied natural gas, market speculation has swirled about the future of global supply and U.S. export capacity. The authorization freeze potentially impacts more than a dozen pending export projects on DOE’s docket, but is likely to immediately delay at least 10 proposed terminals in the United States and Mexico that haven’t reached a final investment decision.
IGU Decries Pause on U.S. LNG Export Permits Amid Growing Backlash - One of the world’s leading natural gas trade groups on Tuesday joined a growing chorus of stakeholders denouncing President Biden’s decision to pause U.S. LNG export permits, saying the move would derail global energy security and jeopardize decarbonization. The International Gas Union (IGU), which represents more than 150 members across the value chain in 80 countries that cover 90% of the global gas market, said America’s role as the world’s largest liquefied natural gas exporter has revolutionized the global gas market. The country’s flexible contracts that allow LNG to be delivered anywhere in the world helped keep the global energy system afloat after Russia cut off natural gas supplies to Europe beginning in late 2021, the group argued.
Pilot, Seapath secure land for Galveston LNG bunkering facility - Pilot LNG and Libra Group’s maritime unit Seapath have secured land for their planned LNG bunkering facility in Galveston, Texas.According to a statement by the two firms, their joint venture Galveston LNG Bunker Port (GLBP) has signed a lease agreement with the City of Texas City for 140 acres of land on Shoal Point in Galveston County. The land is located adjacent to the Texas City Ship Channel and in close proximity to the maritime centers of Texas City, Galveston, and Houston.Pilot and Seapath announced the LNG bunkering project in September last year.The two firms said then that they will initially invest about $150 million in the dedicated LNG bunkering facility in the US Gulf Coast.Pilot and Seapath anticipate announcing the final investment Decision (FID) details of the GLBP project by the second half of 2024, with operations starting in late 2026. Since the project was announced in September, GLBP has assembled a “top team of advisors” and continues its ongoing front-end engineering and design development for the project, the statement said.The project includes two tanks each with a capacity of 3 million gallons and two trains able to produce up to 600,000 gallons per day.Moreover, the first phase of the GLBP project is expected to produce 300,000 gallons per day of LNG for sale into the marine bunker fuel market in the Galveston Bay, and Western Gulf of Mexico region.GLBP estimates it will file applications with the necessary federal and state agencies to permit, construct, and operate the small-scale LNG terminal for marine fuel in early 2024, the statement said.
Houston says Driftwood LNG SPA and equity talks 'moving well' - Tellurian’s commercial activities are “moving well and at pace” as the company continues to work with Bechtel on the site at its Driftwood LNG project in Louisiana, according to Tellurian’s co-founder and chairman, Martin Houston.These commercial activities include SPA (sales and purchase agreement) discussions, equity discussions, and now, “some new approaches”, Houston said in his second letter to shareholders dated January 29.“I am pleased with progress and whilst I will not be drawn on dates or outcomes, I would say that we have clear internal timelines and anticipate some near-term decision points,” he said.In December, Tellurian appointed Houston as the chairman replacing Charif Souki, who has left the Driftwood LNG terminal developer.Houston said in his first letter to shareholders in December that Tellurian hired a financial adviser to assist with shaping commercial structures as well as balance sheet management.The company appointed investment banker Lazard, and in the meantime there was a press report that Tellurian was also looking into a potential sale of the company.Houston said in the new letter that “focus of the Lazard engagement is on commercial matters.”“While it is our policy not to comment in the media on M&A matters, we are aware of a misleading headline in a press report last week regarding our financial advisor,” he said.“Let me clarify: first and foremost, the purpose of hiring Lazard was to give us advice on unlocking the value of our asset base and to help expand our thinking. For customers and potential equity investors, we want to widen the commercial aperture. We believe Driftwood LNG is a powerful platform: our timeline, EPC contract, existing sitework, and fully permited status have high value in a growing LNG market,” Houston said.
Europe Demand to Drive $223B Gas Investment in Next Decade: Study - Europe’s demand for gas is driving $223 billion in new investment to produce the fuel globally during the next decade, according to a new study that casts a spotlight on the region’s broad carbon footprint even as it tries to rein in emissions. Two US liquefied natural gas companies — Venture Global LNG Inc. and Cheniere Energy Inc. — are set to lead spending on new developments going forward, climate activist group Global Witness said in its report, which analyzes data from Rystad Energy. Industry heavyweights TotalEnergies SE and Equinor ASA are also high on the list. Overall, the fossil fuel industry is set to invest $1 trillion in gas production for Europe through 2033, it said. The findings add to indications that Europe’s gas demand is set to continue its upward trajectory — despite efforts to slash emissions — as it rebuilds its energy framework after Russia cut most supplies in the fallout of war in Ukraine. Europe’s consumption of the fuel is forecast to grow by 3 percent this year — slightly higher than the global average, though lower than the world-leading 4 percent rate in Asia, according to the International Energy Agency. Although gas produces less pollution than other fossil fuels, its projects worldwide are under increasing scrutiny for their effects on climate change, raising questions about which facilities will ultimately get built. The Biden administration on Friday halted approval of new US licenses to export LNG while it studies the climate effects, a move that could disrupt billions of dollars in investment. The Global Witness study was compiled before that decision. Europe relies heavily on imported gas from the US and Qatar, the world’s top LNG suppliers. It’s also looking to boost production within its own borders to serve as a bridge during the energy transition. Germany, the region’s largest economy, is considering support for a massive expansion of its fleet of gas plants, which could ultimately burn hydrogen. “Europe is hurtling down a dangerous path by doubling down on fossil gas,” said Dominic Eagleton, senior fossil fuels campaigner at Global Witness. He called on the European Commission to set 2035 as a phase-out date for the fuel. Forecast production for Europe would lead to 6.6 billion tons of carbon dioxide entering the atmosphere until 2033 — equivalent to more than two decades-worth of France’s annual emissions, according to the group. Its study analyzes forecast operating and capital expenditures for gas production, compiled by researcher Rystad. The report covers demand and projects for all of Europe, not just EU nations, excluding Russia. Top spenders on total gas infrastructure for the region include some of the world’s biggest oil and gas companies, it said. Europe has generally been at the forefront of regional efforts to tame climate change. Next month the commission, the EU’s executive branch, will put forward its recommendation for an emissions-cut target of 90 percent by 2040, while acknowledging that fossil fuels will still continue to play a role, according to people familiar with the matter. The question is whether the deals signed by energy companies match up to those ideals. In the run-up to the COP28 climate summit in Dubai last year, the EU declared it will push for a global phase-out of fossil fuels well before 2050. Two days later Shell Plc signed a 27-year agreement to buy Qatari LNG for the Netherlands. TotalEnergies signed a similar contract. Global Witness’ analysis shows that those two companies, alongside Exxon Mobil Corp., Equinor and Eni SpA are set to spend a total of $144 billion on the gas supplies Europe needs over the next decade.
US natgas prices plunge to 9-month low on new front-month, mild forecasts (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures plunged to a nine-month low on Tuesday after the lower-priced March contract became the front-month and on forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. Analysts also noted that U.S. industrial demand for gas was depressed, primarily due to the ongoing outage of a liquefaction unit at Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas. The Freeport outage leaves more gas in the country at the same time that U.S. output is rising as wells return to service after freezing during extreme cold in mid-January. That Arctic freeze boosted gas demand to a daily record high and cut both U.S. gas output and feedgas to liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports plants to one-year lows. On its first day as the front month, gas futures NGc1 for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 2.3 cents, or 1.1%, from where that contract closed on Monday to settle at $2.077 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). That, however, was the lowest close for the front-month since April 13, 2023, and put it down about 17% from where the February contract closed when it was still the front-month on Monday. That was the biggest daily percentage drop for the contract since it fell by 26.0% on Jan. 28, 2022, and pushed the front-month into technically oversold territory for the first time since mid December. Rising price volatility has increased interest in gas trading in recent weeks, boosting open interest on the NYMEX to a 28-month high of 1.45 million contracts on Jan. 26. Financial company LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to an average of 103.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in January, down from a monthly record high of 108.0 bcfd in December. On a daily basis, however, gas output was on track to jump 15.1 bcfd from Jan. 17-30 to a preliminary three-week high of 107.1 bcfd on Monday. That was almost enough to replace the 17.2 bcfd drop in output from Jan. 8-16 to a 12-month low of 90.5 bcfd on Jan. 16, which was due primarily to freeze-offs and other cold weather events. Meteorologists projected temperatures in the Lower 48 states would remain warmer than normal through at least Feb. 14. LSEG forecast U.S. gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would remain around 125.4 bcfd this week and next. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Monday, while its forecast for next week was lower. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants fell to an average of 13.9 bcfd so far in January, down from a monthly record of 14.7 bcfd in December. Analysts said U.S. LNG feedgas would likely not return to record levels until U.S. energy firm Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas returns to full power likely in mid- to late-February.
US natgas edges up from 9-month low on Friday, but still down 23% for week (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% on Friday onforecasts for the return of seasonallycolder weather and higher heating demand later this month, a day after prices closedat a nine-month low. That put thefront-month down about 23% for the week after it gained about 8% last week and dropped about 24% two weeks ago. Traders noted prices gained on Friday even though the weather is expected to remain warmer than normal through mid-February, gas output was risingas more wells return to service after a mid-January freeze, and theamount of gas flowing to the nation's liquefied natural gas (LNG)export plants remainedlow due to a unit outageat Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas. Front-month gas futures NGc1 for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose 2.9 cents, or 1.4%, to settle at $2.079 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).On Thursday, the contract settled at its lowest since April 13, 2023. That kept the front-month intechnically oversold territory for a fourth day in a row. Risingprice volatility has increased interest in gas trading in recent weeks, boosting open interest in NYMEX futures to 1.48 million contracts on Jan. 31, the most since February 2020 for a second day in a row. In other news, a top U.S. Energy Department official will testify at the Feb. 8 Senate Energy Committee hearing looking into President Joe Biden'spause on new approvals for LNG exports. Financial company LSEG said gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to an average of 104.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February from 102.0 bcfd in January. That was still below the monthly record high of 106.3 bcfd in December. Meteorologists projected temperatures in the Lower 48 states would remain warmer than normal through at least Feb. 15 before turning near normal on Feb. 16-17. LSEG forecast U.S. gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would slide from 126.6 bcfd this week to 125.1 bcfd next week and 124.5 bcfd in two weeks. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Thursday. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 14.0 bcfd so far in February, up from 13.9 in January. That was still below the monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December. Analysts said U.S. LNG feedgas would likely not revisit record levels until Freeport LNG returns to full power, which is expected to occur in mid- to late-February. The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, ahead of recent leaders Australia and Qatar, as much higher global prices fed demand for more exports due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's war in Ukraine. Gas was trading around $9 per mmBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe TRNLTTFMc1 and the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia JKMc1.
Fed Keeps Borrowing Costs High, Maintaining Wildcard for Natural Gas Infrastructure Development, Prices - Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers on Wednesday, citing the resilience of the U.S. job market and broader economy, left interest rates at elevated levels. This, in turn, could deter borrowing and new investment at a time when natural gas producers are bracing for long-term growth to meet a surge in global LNG demand. At issue: The Fed pushed up its benchmark rate multiple times over the course of 2022 and last year – more than doubling borrowing costs. It did this as part of an effort to tame spending and curb inflation that reached a 40-year high of 9.1% in mid-2022. The interest increases made a big impact. The inflation rate stood at 6.5% at the end of 2022 and fell to 3.4% at the close of last year. Still, inflation continues to hover well above the Fed’s preferred 2% rate...
Baker Hughes won $5.6 billion in LNG equipment orders last year - US energy services firm Baker Hughes booked record $5.6 billion of LNG equipment orders in 2023. The company said the outlook for LNG FIDs over the next few years “remains strong”. Following record LNG equipment orders of some $3.5 billion in 2022, Baker Hughes booked $1.4 billion in LNG equipment orders in the first quarter of 2023, $900 million in the second quarter, and almost $2.5 billion in the third quarter.In October, Baker Hughes said it is on track to book almost $9 billion of LNG equipment orders across 2022 and 2023, or about $5.5 billion for just 2023. During the fourth quarter of this year, Baker Hughes booked about $800 million of LNG orders, including for Adnoc’s planned LNG export terminal in Al Ruwais, boosting the total to about $5.6 billion for the entire 2023. “In 2023, we were extremely pleased to book almost 80 Mtpa of LNG orders, which outpaced FIDs of 57 Mtpa,” CEO Lorenzo Simonelli told analysts during the company’s earnings call on Wednesday. “This variance was the result of the timing difference between orders and FIDs, which has been accentuated by the tightening LNG equipment market,” Simonelli said. Simonelli said the outlook for FIDs over the next few years “remains strong”, and the company see projects progressing across all markets. “For 2024 specifically, we expect LNG FIDs of around 65 Mtpa. However, it is important to note this includes a couple of major LNG orders that were booked during 2023, he said. “As we look out to 2025 and 2026, we could see between 30-60 Mtpa of FIDs annually, bringing total potential LNG FIDs to between 125 Mtpa and 185 Mtpa through 2026,” he said.
‘How to greenwash’: propane industry tries to rebrand fuel as renewable - Members of a propane industry lobbying group strategized to downplay the full climate impacts of propane and market it as “renewable” or “clean energy”, recordings reviewed by the climate newsletter Heated and the Guardian reveal.The Propane Education & Research Council (Perc), a US lobbying group, has spent nearly $30m over the last two years on advertisements for fossil fuel, according to data compiled by Drilled, a multimedia reporting project focused on climate accountability. The ads often promote propane, the vast majority of which is a by-product of natural gas or crude oil refining, as a form of clean and renewable energy.But in a public November 2022 meeting recorded by the Energy and Policy Institute, Perc board members acknowledged that that characterization was inaccurate.“Twenty-five percent [of people consider] natural gas to be renewable, in this millennial and gen Z bucket,” an unidentified Perc board member said. “There’s a perception out there – not reality, but that’s perception. We can attach to that for propane.” “You can’t say natural gas is renewable,” Perc board member Leslie Woodward cautioned.“Perception,” the unidentified board member repeated.Erin Hatcher, Perc’s senior vice-president of communications and marketing, agreed that propane should be perceived as clean energy. “We don’t want to be in that coal bucket,” she is heard saying on the recording. “We want to be in that clean energy bucket.”In a comment to Heated and the Guardian, Hatcher said she “did not recall any kind of comment” about mistaking propane as renewable. “Our concern about perception is that all fuels are demonized.”She added: “There’s no attempt to mislead whatsoever. It’s to educate, because the narrative that predominates the news is that there’s only one way to a clean future, and we don’t believe that.” Woodward did not respond to requests for comment, and Hatcher said she couldn’t identify the other board members who spoke at the meeting.To stabilize a safe climate, scientists say the world’s energy systems must reach net-zero greenhouse emissions by the year 2050. The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has said achieving net zero by 2050 will require “a substantial reduction of overall fossil fuel use”.Propane is a fossil gas, commonly liquified for use in heating and cooking. Typically a by-product of natural gas or crude oil refining, propane can also be made from non-fossil sources like plant, seed and animal oils – though currently, only 0.04% of it is, according to estimates from the EPA and the US Energy Information Administration. Propane – even “renewable propane” made from plants or cooking oil – emits carbon dioxide and other environmentally harmful fossil fumes. Propane made from fossil fuels emits less carbon than coal or diesel, but more than natural gas when burned as fuel, according to the US Energy Information Administration. In 2022, CO2emissions from propane in the US were a tiny fraction of the carbon emissions from other fossil fuels, but that’s because the US consumes far less propane than gas and oil – not because propane is necessarily cleaner.Still, Perc has invested millions in a multiyear strategy to rebrand propane from what it’s called a “dirty fossil fuel” to a so-called clean energy source. According to Drilled, Perc’s annual ad spending increased more than 17-fold from 2021 to 2022-23, from $1.7m to nearly $30m.In 2022 and 2023, Perc bought ads touting the “clean energy” potential of propane across 450 media properties, according to Drilled’s data, including more than $9m on YouTube channels, including YouTube Kids; $4.7m on Fox News; $2.6m on Southern Living; $1.5m on NBC; $979,000 on USA Today; and $746,000 on ESPN.A spokesperson for Google, which owns YouTube, said the company bans ads that deny climate change, or ads that claim human beings or greenhouse gases don’t contribute to global warming. “This policy does not prohibit other climate-related topics, including promotions of various energy sources,” the spokesperson said.
UWF research unveils potential cons of using 'COREXIT' dispersants in oil spill cleanups | WEAR -- It was the largest marine oil spill in U.S. history. The explosion of the Deepwater Horizon oil rig in 2010 released 3.19 million barrels of oil into the Gulf. The clean-up is still underway to this day. In 2016, the University of West Florida conducted a unique study on the spill and how dispersants, which are used to help break down the oil, have impacted the cleanup. Because of its complexity, it was published only days ago. "Because it's a unique study we've been able to generate information that nobody else, to our knowledge, has been able to do," Dr. Wade Jeffrey said. There are some species of bacteria that eat and break down oil. "Some people will say just completely leave them alone and the bacteria will do their thing," Jeffrey said. But companies have tried to aid this process by adding dispersants, which help break down bigger amounts of oil, so that it's easier for bacteria to eat it. "COREXIT" is one type of dispersant used. Dr. Jeffery and UWF conducted a study to see how COREXIT affected the bacteria in the Gulf. "How they respond, that's been the harder part. So this study is the first of its kind," Jeffrey said. What they found is that COREXIT seemed to cause some adverse effects in the bacteria, especially on surface waters where there is more sunlight. "We found that COREXIT, the dispersant, creates a stress response in the bacteria when we combined it with sunlight then that stress response increased even more," Jeffrey said. This makes it harder for it to eat and break down the oil, as well as hurt the other species of bacteria that do not break down oil. "I think this data shows that maybe putting COREXIT on surface waters is not a good approach, it creates more problems that may be greater than the benefits that it produces," Jeffrey said. Basically, seeing out how bacteria is affected by dispersants can help researchers figure out the best way to treat future spills, while having smaller -- if any -- impacts on the environment. "Maybe instead of using COREXIT, just using a simple soap would work," Jeffrey said. "Just to examine other chemicals or treatments that may give you a longer better terms result with creating the other deleterious effects." The study included international collaborators from France, Belgium, Germany and Scotland, led by Dr. Sabine Matallana-Surget from University of Stirling in Scotland. Dr. Jeffrey says he hopes this study will be a gateway for future research. Click here for the link to the full study.
Oil in, water out: Lawmakers timid about tackling booming oil and gas industry - New Mexico In Depth -- New Mexico legislators’ latest run at regulating the oil and gas industry by updating the 90-year-old Oil and Gas Act illuminated the continuing struggles faced with trying to craft rules for an industry that produces nearly half the state’s revenue. Their efforts at finding a balance continue to leave environmentalists frustrated with the ripple effects, including costs, that they see reaching frontline communities and ecosystems. Before its first hearing Thursday, lawmakers struck a requirement that oil and gas infrastructure be more than a third of a mile from schools, health facilities, multifamily housing, occupied homes, and at least 300 feet from waterways from a bill heard by the House Energy, Environment & Natural Resources committee. “I know there’s a lot of disappointment about that, and I share that disappointment,” said Rep. Matthew McQueen, D-Galisteo, chairman of the committee and a co-sponsor of the bill. McQueen presented a “substitute” bill during Thursday’s committee meeting. Substitute bills often come together following behind-closed-doors negotiations among lawmakers, lobbyists and various other parties. “The setback requirements were a sticking point,” McQueen said. Thursday’s decision removed a buffer intended to protect communities from environmental hazards. Living near oil and gas wells has been linked to higher levels of exposure to pollutants including toxic particulate matter, carbon monoxide, ozone, and volatile organic compounds that may affect health. But oil and gas industry representatives say there’s redundancy in this rule, and that the links between health issues and nearby oil and gas wells remain unproven. “Setbacks aren’t needed because communities in the Permian and the San Juan basins already have setbacks,” said Frederick Bermudez, vice president of communications for the New Mexico Oil and Gas Association. “Additionally, setback distances aren’t based on scientific necessity.” Thursday’s decision to remove the language about buffers also means New Mexico’s already vulnerable waters are denied a potential layer of protection, particularly after a U.S. Supreme Court ruling last year that found the Clean Water Act doesn’t apply to intermittent waterways, like streams that flow only seasonally or in sections, as well as arroyos, cienegas, and playa lakes. That decision carved out 95% of waterways and wetlands in the state from protection under that federal clean water law. As revised, the bill still would increase bonding requirements for oil and gas wells on state lands from $250,000 to $10 million, shifting the likely financial burden of cleaning up abandoned wells from taxpayers to the oil and gas industry. The legislation would also firm up methane rules that require oil and gas well operators to capture 98 percent of natural gas produced beginning in 2027. Fees and civil penalties are also increased. Oil and gas industry representatives and other pro-business interests spoke against the bill, arguing that it will force companies out of business or out of state, kill jobs, disproportionately hammer small producers, and gut state revenue. “Our overriding concern is that there continue to be burdensome regulations, fees and rules imposed on the industry that is currently providing about 40% to 50% of the state’s budget,” Carla Sonntag, president and CEO of the New Mexico Business Coalition, said at the committee meeting. “We’re seeing that the state is happy to take the money from this industry but it frequently is raising barriers and constraints that cause more harm to our operators.” In addition to the setbacks the bill would have required for homes and other buildings, it would have called for buffers of 660 feet from streams that flow year round as well as wetlands and irrigation structures, and 300 feet away from smaller streams that flow only part of the year.
New Mexico Bureau of Land Management Office Scraps Proposed Fossil Fuel Regulations -- On Dec. 22, the last day before the longest federal holiday of the year, the federal Bureau of Land Management’s field office in Farmington, New Mexico, announced (quietly, via a webpage update) a project cancellation that did the seemingly impossible: It united both conservation groups and oil and gas producers — in bafflement.“It’s not an acceptable outcome,” said Mike Eisenfeld, energy and climate program manager at San Juan Citizens Alliance. “If I was the oil and gas industry, I’d be livid.” “I do not pretend to know what the BLM is thinking,” said Jason Sandel, executive vice president of Aztec Well Servicing, an oilfield services company in Aztec, New Mexico. He said he hadn’t heard of the announcement until asked about it for this story. Sandel is also a board member with the New Mexico Oil and Gas Association, and when he asked others in the industry their thoughts, he said, “‘We don’t know’ was more of the response I got.”The catalyzing event was an announcement from the Farmington Bureau of Land Management office that work on an update and amendment to the district’s Resource Management Plans had been scrapped, with no replacement or path forward announced. The update, conducted in partnership with the Bureau of Indian Affairs, would have been selected from among one of four multifaceted options — or a continuation of the status quo — as outlined in a two-volume, 976-page tome, 10 years and countless meetings in the making. Whichever plan was eventually chosen would have rewritten the playbook for vetting new oil and gas development over more than 4 million acres of federal, private and Native lands in the San Juan Basin of northwestern New Mexico. Broadly speaking, the options ranged from halting all new oil and gas development in the area to dramatically increasing production. The office currently operates under a plan that dates to 2003, a time before resource- and labor-intensive, hydraulically fractured horizontal drilling techniques were widely used in the culturally and environmentally sensitive region. In particular, a new plan would have updated how the agency factored in Native cultural interests when approving developments.The Bureau of Land Management and the Bureau of Indian Affairs worked together to create the four update options, with the former taking the lead. They worked together because any update would cover development in the Navajo Nation and the so-called checkerboard area of intermixed federal, private and Native lands along the eastern edge of the Navajo Nation in northwest New Mexico.The Bureau of Land Management announcement listed five main reasons for dumping the plan after a decade of work:
- Interest in renewable energy projects has increased in recent years;
- Same for outdoor recreation;
- Other, active cultural preservation initiatives from both tribes and the bureau itself superseded plan options;
- Last June the Department of Interior (of which the bureau is a part) set aside 336,404 acres of land surrounding Chaco Culture National Historic Park, a site sacred to Native people across the region, from any future oil and gas development;
- Fossil fuel production across the district has declined overall in recent years.
However, a review of oil and gas production records kept by the state Oil Conservation Division shows that while the annual amount of natural gas produced and its value dropped by more than 50% between 2003 and 2023, oil production grew by 240% in that period while its total annual value rose ninefold. (2023 data is incomplete because the state gives companies a month and a half to file production reports.)“We’re pleasantly surprised they scrapped the plan,” said Miya King-Flaherty, Wild New Mexico organizing representative with the Sierra Club Rio Grande Chapter. She said the Bureau of Land Management and Bureau of Indian Affairs’ preferred proposal could have allowed more than 3,000 new oil and gas wells to be drilled in the region. “What remains to be seen is what now?” she said. “Drilling in the region was already controversial, and the … planning process was fraught with frustration.”Meanwhile, operations continue under the 2003 plan, which “allows industry to move at the speed of last century’s status quo,” says Atencio. “BLM is working with 20th century data rather than keeping up with the times.”
Backlash greets New Mexico governor's $500M proposal to treat fracking wastewater — Environmental activists pushed back on Jan. 22 against an initiative from the governor of New Mexico that would finance the treatment and recycling of oil-industry wastewater, warning that the plan relies on unproven technologies and might propel more water-intensive fracking for oil and natural gas.Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham is seeking legislation and regulatory changes that would allow the state to finance buying and selling treated water that originates from the used, salty byproducts of oil and natural gas drilling or from underground saltwater aquifers.The aim is to help preserve freshwater sources by providing a new source of recycled water for industrial uses, at the same time helping an arid state attract businesses ranging from microchip manufacturers to hydrogen fuel producers.An array of environmental and social-justice groups gathered outside the Statehouse to denounce the governor's plan as a handout to the oil and natural gas industry that won't necessarily decrease pressure on the state's ancient underground aquifers.
Oil and gas gave big in 2023. The industry flexed its muscles this week. - New Mexico In Depth - Large oil and gas companies gave nearly $800,000 in the past 12 months to Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, partisan legislative political action committees and individual state lawmakers, according to a partial review of campaign finance reports filed by lobbyists.That amount almost certainly will grow in coming months due to a quirk in New Mexico’s disclosure laws. Elected officials don’t have to report contributions they received in the last quarter of last year until this spring. The amount of money the industry showers on elected officials offers a glimpse into the influence it has at the state capitol during legislative sessions. The industry’s ability to shape legislation was on full display Thursday when a House committee substantively stripped a bill of new regulationsthat would have required oil and gas infrastructure to be set back more than a third of a mile from schools, health facilities, multifamily housing, occupied homes, and at least 300 feet from waterways. The political giving reflects the industry’s outsized dominance in a state that ranks second in oil production nationally and where more than 40% of funding for New Mexico’s state budget can be tied directly to the industry. The money spread around to New Mexico’s elected officials has been well-documented, as has its power. A March 2020 report by Common Cause New Mexico and New Mexico Ethics Watch detailed the largess over the years 2017-2019, with almost $12 million funneled into political campaign coffers, and more than a million more was given by October of that year. New Mexico In Depth also has documented the political spending and the push and pull over regulation through the years. In 2019, the first year Lujan Grisham took over as governor from Republican Gov. Susana Martinez, there was a push by environmentalists to implement greater regulations for the oil and gas industry, but in the end, the oil and gas industry had little to fear. The industry far exceeds other industries in its political giving, and has for many years. During the 2022 election, New Mexico In Depth reported on a new round of giving, pointing out the donations in particular of the biggest player, Chevron Corporation.Chevron continued its pattern of big spending in 2023, as did other large oil and gas companies, a review of lobbyist reports filed with the Secretary of State’s office shows. Lobbyists are required to file reports in May, October and January. Patrick Killen, a lobbyist for Chevron USA, contributed $479,000 on behalf of the company to Lujan Grisham, several legislative political action committees and individual state lawmakers, according to May and October campaign finance reports. Randi Valverde, a lobbyist for Marathon Oil and Permian Resources, donated $122,500 in the last quarter of 2023 to a mix of state lawmakers, both Democrats and Republicans. Matthew Jaramillo, a lobbyist for Exxon Mobil, gave lawmakers $93,000. Gabrielle Gerholt, a registered lobbyist reporting just one employer – ConocoPhillips – gave contributions in 2023 totaling $90,000.
2 Energy Companies Face $7.4 Million Penalty After Oil Spill On Tribal Land --The Justice Department and EPA issued two energy companies with a $7.4 million penalty after more than 300,000 gallons of crude oil spilled on tribal land. In July 2022, an underground leak was discovered at Skull Creek in northeast Cushing. Skull Creek feeds into the Cimarron River, whose aquifer provides water for agriculture and irrigation, and is owned by the Sac and Fox Nation. Tuesday the EPA said the spill 'severely hampered' water quality and aquatic environment, adding the settlement is an important step in holding companies accountable. Clean-up continues in the area, with Sac and Fox tribal monitors overseeing the effort. In addition to the multi-million-dollar payment, both companies have been ordered to improve pipeline integrity and expand their spill notification efforts to Tribal Governments. Company officials told News 9 that the failed piece of the pipeline was sent to a lab to be analyzed, and the pipeline was returned to service ten days after the spill with reduced pressure.
Loveland approves first oil drilling plan with restrictions - Inside the Capitol, state Environment Department Secretary James Kenney briefed a state Senate budget-writing on the administration's plan to underwrite the project with up to $500 million in bonds over a two-year period, to spur private investment in water-treatment and desalination infrastructure.Approval from the Legislature is necessary under a construction-spending bill that has not yet been introduced. The state's annual legislative session ends on Feb. 15.The Environment Department is proposing a new regulatory framework for reusing oil-industry wastewater and desalination of naturally occurring brine. On Monday, it also announced a related request for technical and economic briefings by people in business, academia, government agencies — or other interested individuals.
Texas Oilman Jim Finley's Key Role In Utah's Oil Boom - Jim Finley is a bit of a ghost. Outside of oil industry circles, few people have probably ever heard of the man. He rarely speaks in public.One exception was in October 2021, when Finley, the CEO of Texas-based Finley Resources, presented to a coalition of seven oil-producing counties in eastern Utah. Following his speech, coalition board members and staff applauded Finley for his investments in Utah’s oil-rich Uinta Basin, and thanked him for making time to speak. One person noted that he is a particularly difficult man to get hold of.“Sometimes nobody knows where I am,” Finley said. “On purpose,” someone else chimed in. Finley chuckled.The Texas oilman has played a key role in spearheading the kind of oil boom that has long evaded the remote basin. In just over a decade, he’s become one of the top producers in the Uinta and is now playing an outsize role in shaping Utah’s energy future. Finley has thrown his support behind a controversial rail line that would make it easier for him and the basin’s five other producers to export oil to out-of-state markets, while simultaneously boosting export capacity via trucking and existing rail. He has his fingers in every aspect of basin production, from drilling oil and mining sand for hydraulic fracturing to operating a transloading facility and a growing fleet of oil trains. Powerful political allies have helped him expand his empire, primarily by funneling public money toward infrastructure projects that benefit the oil sector. Chris Kuveke, a researcher at BailoutWatch, a watchdog group that provided HuffPost with extensive research on Finley’s portfolio and operations, called Finley “the mastermind” of the basin’s current oil boom.“He has a long history of using campaign finance and lobbying as influence to get his projects where he wants them to be,” Kuveke said. “He knows what he’s doing. He has a serious track record of influencing the industry that he wants to grow, being a linchpin. And that’s what he’s doing in the Uinta.”Finley and other producers’ long-term vision for the Uinta could lead to as much as 350,000 barrels of crude oil being railed from Utah to Gulf Coast refineries every day, roughly tripling current basin production andincreasing U.S. annual carbon emissions by 1%.Oil and gas industry players and longtime observers, including two who requested anonymity to speak plainly about the Uinta’s trajectory, credited Finley for the basin’s recent growth.“He kind of broke the seal,” a current industry official told HuffPost, adding that other basin producers have followed Finley’s lead in shipping oil out of state.A retired industry professional called Finley the “puppetmaster” of Utah energy policy, and admitted to having “a degree of rueful admiration” for how he’s secured public funds for his ventures.“It is a classic story of using ‘other people’s money’ — in this case, that of Utah taxpayers — while leaving them stuck with the environmental and public health bill,” the retired professional told HuffPost..
Crude oil spills at Mountrail County well site --- A tank leak is blamed for the spill of 12,600 gallons of crude oil at a well in Mountrail County in northwestern North Dakota. Liberty Resources Management Co. reported the Friday incident to the North Dakota Oil and Gas Division on Monday. The spill happened at a well about 15 miles from Powers Lake when a valve on the tank failed due to recent extreme weather, according to the spill report on file with the state. The 300 barrels of oil were contained on-site, and cleanup is underway, according to the state. At the time of the report 175 barrels of oil had been recovered. A state inspector has been to the location and will monitor additional cleanup.
Alaska Looking to Secure Vital Natural Gas Supplies Via Cook Inlet - As reserves in the Cook Inlet Basin dwindle, Alaska leaders are warning of natural gas shortages as early as 2027. Natural gas production in the basin has fallen to about 70 Bcf/year, according to the Alaska Department of Natural Resources (DNR). The reduced production was cited for shuttering operations at the Agrium Kenai Nitrogen Plant in 2007. The Kenai LNG facility also suspended operations in 2016. Enstar Natural Gas Co. President John Sims in a recent interview said supplies near-term could provide enough gas for the 150,000 customers. However, Sims told the Anchorage Daily News that he is “really, really concerned” about having enough supply around 2028.
Canadian Court Blocks Part of Quebec's Ban on O&G Drilling | Marcellus Drilling News -- The province of Quebec, Canada, with a huge supply of Utica Shale gas sitting beneath it, passed a new law in April 2022 — Bill 21 — outlawing all oil and natural gas production throughout the province (see Quebec Pulls Trigger & Commits Energy Suicide – Bans All O&G Prod.). It was a breathtaking grab of totalitarian power. It’s also energy suicide. Quebec said it would pay a piddly US$79.5 million to expropriate the oil and gas drilling rights of companies owning those rights in the province. A number of companies sued…
Petrolympic welcomes the Québec Superior Court's decision to suspend provisions of Bill 21- Petrolympic Ltd. is pleased to report on the decision made by the Québec Superior Court (Civil Division) to stay some provisions of Bill 21, the Act ending exploration for petroleum and underground reservoirs and production of petroleum and brine (the “Act”), for the duration of the judicial proceedings. In its ruling, the Court concluded to the legitimacy of Petrolympic’s claim that some provisions of the Act represent a serious legal matter which, if not stayed immediately, would cause serious or irreparable harm to the Company. The Court also ordered provisional execution despite appeal of this ruling, meaning that the judgement will be enforced even if the Attorney General files an appeal. This exceptional measure aims at preserving the Company’s rights while it continues to work toward a fair solution to the situation. Mendel Ekstein, President, and Chief Executive Officer of Petrolympic, commented: “We welcome this ruling as a crystal-clear message that the law must be fair. Petrolympic is not fighting Québec here, it is merely standing for its rights against an Act that we consider unfair and that unnecessarily harms the Company’s interests. We are also looking forward beyond the judicial proceedings, as we mean to continue contributing to the development of Québec’s energy resources.” Apart from its mining assets, Petrolympic holds in Québec an interest in a total of 753,058 hectares (1,860,839 acres) of oil and gas exploration licences in the St. Lawrence Lowlands and in the Gaspe Peninsula/Lower St. Lawrence region. In the St. Lawrence Lowlands, the Company’s joint venture properties encompass a large part of the prolific Utica shale gas play. A study by the Geological Survey of Canada in 2016 has estimated an original gas in place of 183 Tcf for the whole Utica Shale in the St. Lawrence Lowlands. The Company’s holdings in this area consist of a 30% interest in 216,933 hectares (536,051 acres) through a joint venture with Ressources et Énergie Squatex (“Squatex”), a 12% interest in 8,000 hectares (19,768 acres) through the Farmout Agreement with Canbriam Energy Inc. (now Pacific Canbriam Energy Ltd.), and a 100% interest in 55,951 hectares (138,247 acres). In the Gaspe Peninsula/Lower St. Lawrence region, the Company also holds several high-profile assets including the Massé Structure, that is held in joint venture with Squatex. The resource assessment for this structure indicates a potential of 53.6 BCF of gas and 52.2 million barrels of oil over a probable average area of 5.2 km2, for an oil equivalent total of 61.1 million barrels (MMBOE). These results have been announced in a press release dated May 17, 2016 (the full version of which can be found on www.sedarplus.ca under Petrolympic’s profile). The Company’s holdings in this region consist of a 30% interest in 431,160 hectares (1,065,415 acres) through a joint venture with Squatex and a 100% interest in a block of exploration licenses referred to as the Mitis and the Matapedia properties and totaling 41,014 hectares (101,347 acres).
Trans Mountain expansion runs into 'technical issues,' completion delay possible - The Trans Mountain pipeline expansion is facing delay yet again. The Crown corporation building the massive project, which had previously stated it expected to have the pipeline in-service near the end of the first quarter, said Monday it has once again run into construction challenges in B.C. In a statement on its website, Trans Mountain Corp. said Monday it has encountered "technical issues" and needs additional time to determine the "safest and most prudent actions for minimizing further delay." The company said the technical issues were discovered between Jan. 25 and Jan. 27 during construction work in the Fraser Valley between Hope and Chilliwack, B.C. "Trans Mountain is fully focused on the completion of the pipeline and will not be providing (media) interviews at this time as it works towards the anticipated in-service date in the second quarter of 2024," the company stated. The Trans Mountain pipeline is Canada's only oil pipeline to the West Coast and its expansion will increase the pipeline's capacity to 890,000 barrels per day from 300,000 bpd currently. Its construction, which is more than 98 per cent complete, has been underway for more than three years. Canadian oil producers have already begun ramping up production in expectation of the additional export capacity, which is expected to improve the prices Canadian oil companies receive. But Trans Mountain Corp. has been racing against the clock as it deals with difficulties drilling through hard rock in B.C. Its initial request to use a different size of pipe for the location in question was denied by the Canada Energy Regulator due to concerns around pipeline quality and integrity. Trans Mountain Corp. then asked the regulator to reconsider, saying in December that the project could face a worst-case scenario of a two-year delay in completion if it was not allowed to alter its construction plans. After an oral hearing in Calgary earlier this month, the regulator then agreed to allow a pipeline variance, as long as Trans Mountain Corp. abided by a number of conditions, including testing and documentation requirements for the pipe materials. The Trans Mountain pipeline is owned by the federal government, which purchased it in 2018 in an effort to get the expansion project over the finish line after it was scuttled by previous owner Kinder Morgan Canada. The project's costs have spiralled through the course of construction from an original estimate of $5.4 billion to the most recent estimate of $30.9 billion. Trans Mountain Corp. has blamed the ballooning costs on a number of things, including evolving compliance requirements, Indigenous accommodations, stakeholder engagement and compensation requirements, extreme weather, the COVID-19 pandemic and challenging terrain.
Alberta Water Agency Cuts Access for Fracking as Prairie Drought Continues - A water management agency in Alberta is cutting off access for oil and gas fracking operations as the province prepares for another summer of severe drought and a University of Saskatchewan water scientist raises serious concerns about groundwater levels.The Mountain View Regional Water Services Commission banned fracking operations from using water from its treatment plant on the banks of the Red Deer River northwest of Innisfail, in central Alberta. That decision came after the province issued its warning about a possible severe drought this year, Carstairs Mayor Lance Colby, who also chairs the water commission, told the Globe and Mail.Carstairs is one of six communities that use water from the Anthony Henday Water Treatment Plant, the Globe reports.“Everybody’s on the same page,” Colby said. “We know and understand what we can and can’t do with water, so there was no pushback when we passed the motion that the towns make sure that water isn’t being used on fracking.”There’s been no data until now on how much Mountain View water is being used for fracking, but now municipalities will be paying closer attention to bulk water sales, the Globe adds. “Our main goal is to make sure we supply the water to the residents,” Colby said. “Our mandate was never to supply water for fracking.”The Alberta government is also opening negotiations to “secure significant and timely reductions in water use,” Environment Minister Rebecca Schulz said in a news release. “This effort will be the largest water-sharing negotiation to have ever occurred in Alberta’s history.” Global News says some 25,000 businesses and organizations across the province currently hold licences for 9.5 billion cubic metres of water, enough to fill 3.8 million Olympic swimming pools.Those conversations are playing out as University of Saskatchewan water scientist John Pomeroy warns of declining groundwater levels in many parts of the province.The Marmot Creek well in Kananaskis Country has been there for generations, adjacent to a popular ski resort in what The Canadian Press describes as an Alberta mountain playground. It’s one of the few groundwater monitoring wells that Alberta has in the mountains. Away from any human influence, it’s a good indicator of what’s actually happening.“The lowest water levels are all in the last seven years and the levels are much lower now than they were in the ’70s and ’80s,” Pomeroy told CP.“It’ll be a climate signal that we’re seeing.”As predicted by climate change models, drought is desiccating the Prairies, especially southern Alberta. The province has already warned municipalities to plan for another dry summer, is preparing help for farmers, and aims to mobilize firefighting teams early.
Chevron to Sell Canadian Shale Stake - Chevron Corp. has decided to exit shale rock production in Canada as it refocuses investment on tight assets in the United States. The US energy major is divesting its 70 percent stake in the Duvernay play in the oil province of Alberta. “Chevron will be soliciting and reviewing expressions of interest, but there are no assurances of any sale”, San Ramon, California-based Chevron said in a recent statement. Chevron produced 126 million cubic feet of natural gas and 17,500 barrels of condensate and natural gas liquids from its Duvernay leaseholdings in 2022, according to data from the website of its Canadian arm. The unconventional, liquids-rich formation holds hydrocarbons at a depth of up to 4,000 meters (13,123.4 feet). Chevron’s extraction method for these resources employs horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. Chevron’s assets in the play, or a group of fossil fuel prospects in one area, span 245,000 net acres, Chevron Canada says. “The business holds significant value in both its current production as well as potential growth opportunities, which we expect to be attractive to other companies with complementary portfolios”, Chevron said. KUFPEC Canada Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Kuwait Foreign Petroleum Exploration Co., holds the remaining 30 percent interest. “Chevron is committed to safely delivering the affordable, reliable, ever-cleaner energy Canada and the world needs”, Chevron added. Chevron plans to offload assets for as much as $15 billion in pre-tax proceeds through 2028. It bared this plan when announcing a deal to merge with Hess Corp. last October. Chevron’s $60-billion all-stock, debt-inclusive acquisition of its New York City-headquartered competitor follows its absorption of similarly smaller US oil and gas rivals Noble Energy Inc. and PDC Energy Inc., completed 2020 and 2023 respectively. In a statement announcing the Hess deal, Chevron said, “With a stronger portfolio after closing, Chevron expects to increase asset sales and generate $10 to $15 billion in before-tax proceeds through 2028”. The companies expect to complete the transaction June 2024. The Federal Trade Commission launched a probe into the agreement last December, both firms confirmed in regulatory disclosures December. Following the agreement Chevron said for 2024 it would allot two-thirds of its expected upstream capital budget of about $14 billion for US operations. The US portion includes around $6.5 billion for tight portfolio assets, of which $5 billion is for the Permian basin. Downstream capital spending is pegged at $1.5 billion.
Canada Pension Plan Pours $100M into Fracking, LNG, as Biden Puts Industry Under Microscope -The pension fund that manages retirement savings for more than 21 million Canadians allowed US$100 million of those funds to be invested in industries now under the microscope after the Biden White House announced it would apply a climate test to liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, a research and advocacy group says.The C$576-billion Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB) placed the investment in 2022 with Kimmeridge Fund VI, which the board describes as “a U.S.-based alternative asset manager focused exclusively on the energy sector.” Those funds flowed through to natural gas fracking operations in Texas and the proposed Commonwealth LNG terminal on the Louisiana coast, Shift Action for Pension Wealth and Planet Health said on social media last week.Commonwealth was first put forward to U.S. regulators in July, 2017, was approved in November, 2022, and a final investment decision on the project was expected by the end of March, Offshore Technology reports. With capacity to export 9.3 million tonnes of LNG per year, Commonwealth would be almost the size of the 11.3-million-tonne Calcasieu Pass 2 project that will now be subject to a climate review, one of 17 new export terminals the U.S. gas industry is trying to bring online.“This is an alarming example of @cppinvestments indirectly pouring Canadians’ pension savings into an oil & gas expansion project that fuels the #climatecrisis and faces escalating regulatory, reputational, legal, transition, and financial risks,” Shift wrote Friday.“It also underscores a lack of transparency in Canada’s pension sector, with our retirement savings being quietly funneled into private equity funds with virtually no reporting from the CPPIB on how the money is eventually used for fossil fuel projects,” Shift added. “The CPPIB claims that it’s committed to climate action. But its continued investment in fossil fuel expansion projects is putting our shared climate and our pension savings at risk, while undermining the CPPIB’s own #netzero emissions commitment.”Shift Senior Manager Patrick DeRochie said the investment in Commonwealth LNG amounts to “chump change” compared to the size of CPPIB’s fund. But it’s still enough to produce an extra 50 megatonnes of greenhouse gas emissions.“With the amount of expertise they have, the sophistication with which they could assess climate risk, I don’t get how no one at the fund is looking at this problem,” he told The Energy Mix. CPPIB’s “finance wizards are investing a $576-billion portfolio on behalf of more than 20 million Canadians, and there’s no one there who thinks about how dumb and how risky it is to invest $100 million into dumping another 50 million tonnes of carbon pollution into the atmosphere.”“It’s gobsmacking,” he added. “It makes me wonder what planet CPP investment managers live on.”CPPIB’s media office did not respond to an email requesting comment on the criteria it would apply to an investment like Commonwealth LNG, how it would weigh the climate risks involved, and whether its assessment of those risks is shifting as international agencies call for an end to new fossil fuel extraction projects. DeRochie said he couldn’t comment on what they’re thinking because they haven’t been responding to his overtures, either.“We’ve had very few conversations with CPPIB investment managers, despite numerous attempts to reach out to them,” he said. “There hasn’t been an open door.”After seeing half of Canada on fire last year, whole cities evacuated, one town burned to the ground, and hundreds dead in heatwaves, DeRochie said CPPIB is funnelling its fossil investments through secretive private equity funds that make it very difficult to follow the dollars. “We essentially get no reporting from some pension funds in private equity, and it takes years of closely tracking where this money is going to have any idea of how it’s eventually being used,” he said. That amounts to a “serious transparency problem” that should have financial regulators like the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions paying attention.“It’s going to take regulation to require them to align their climate and energy transition plans with what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the International Energy Agency are saying is required to avert catastrophic climate change,” DeRochie said. “Every dollar a pension fund puts into fossil fuel expansion is a dollar that’s not being used to finance the energy transition that we so badly need,” and works against a “liveable future for their own members.”In the wake of last week’s White House decision, climate hawks have been declaring the win, while Politico points out the extensive fracking and LNG export activity still going on in the U.S. Canadian oil and gas companies are “reacting with dismay” to the news, The Canadian Press reports, while repeating industry claims that gas is a less emissions-heavy replacement for coal—a line that hasn’t stood up well in several years of studies.“Given the highly integrated nature of the North American energy market, CAPP is disappointed in the White House decision,” Lisa Baiton, president and CEO of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, told CP in an email Friday. Baiton is also a former member of CPPIB’s Global Leadership Team.“Our immediate view is any delay in the development of U.S. liquefied natural gas is a loss for the U.S., our allies, for U.S. jobs, and for efforts to cut emissions around the world,” added Enbridge Inc. spokesperson Gina Sutherland
Mexico Natural Gas Production Hits Highest Level Under AMLO, Though Still Outpaced by Imports - Mexico’s natural gas production averaged 4.3 Bcf/d in 2023, the highest full-year figure since President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, aka AMLO, took office in December 2018. The amount was up from 4.09 Bcf/d recorded in 2022, and 3.81 Bcf/d in 2019, data from upstream regulator Comisión Nacional de Hidrocarburos (CNH) show. Crude oil production, meanwhile, averaged 1.65 million b/d, the second-lowest total of the López Obrador era. The discrepancy between gas and crude is largely due to state oil company Petróleos Mexicanos’ (Pemex) development of the Quesqui and Ixachi onshore gas fields, discovered in 2019 and 2017, respectively. Quesqui was Mexico’s leading gas producing field in December at 638 MMcf/d, while Ixachi placed third with 375 MMcf/d.
Mexico LNG Export Projects Jolted by U.S. Permit Freeze – Spotlight - Mexico’s nascent LNG market could be impacted by the decision of U.S. authorities to pause export licenses as they review methodology and guidelines. The liquefied natural gas export projects planned in Mexico, which amount to as much as 6 Bcf/d, would use U.S. natural gas as feed stock. As such, they require U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) approval for exports to nations that lack free-trade agreements (FTA) with the United States. NGI’s Mexico GPI spoke to LNG developers and participants in the natural gas market to get a sense of potential ramifications. The projects most obviously impacted have yet to receive DOE permits. However, even Mexico LNG projects that have U.S. authorizations could be forced to speed up plans or face reapplying for permits under unknown...
Escalating Geopolitical Tensions Push European Natural Gas Prices Higher – LNG Recap - Escalating tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty over U.S. LNG exports combined Monday to push European natural gas prices higher. Despite weak fundamentals, “geopolitics remain in focus” for the global energy market, said Schneider Electric analyst Robbie Fraser. Three U.S. servicemen were killed in a drone strike in Jordan over the weekend that was linked to Iran. While crude prices retreated Monday, the risk of an oil price spike and its impact on other commodities remains, especially given Iran’s link to the Houthi militants attacking commercial vessels in the Red Sea. The United States has pledged a response to Sunday’s drone strike. The security situation in the region has forced dozens of natural gas and propane carriers to avoid the Red Sea and take the longer route round Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, which can add about nine days to the normally 18-day trip to Europe.
Global gas demand set for stronger growth in 2024 despite geopolitical uncertainty, says IEA -- Growth in global gas demand is set to pick up this year due to colder winter temperatures and easing prices, with emerging economies leading the increase in consumption, but geopolitical risks and supply-side concerns could trigger renewed price volatility, according to the International Energy Agency.In 2023, global gas demand rose by just 0.5%, as growth in China, North America and gas-rich countries in Africa and the Middle East was partially offset by declines in other regions, the IEA said in its latest Gas Market Report.As pandemic restrictions loosened and economic activity returned, China regained its position as the world’s largest LNG importer (although China’s LNG imports in 2023 were still below 2021 levels) as natural gas demand grew by 7%. In contrast, natural gas consumption in Europe fell by 7%, reaching its lowest level since 1995. This decline was compounded by the rapid expansion of renewables and an increased availability of nuclear power weighing on natural gas demand in both Europe and mature markets in Asia, driving prices lower, the agency said.According to the IEA, in 2024, global gas demand is forecast to grow by 2.5%, or 100 billion cubic metres (bcm). Expected colder winter weather in 2024, compared with the unusually mild temperatures experienced in 2023, is likely to bring increasing demand for space heating in residential and commercial sectors.“The global gas market is entering a new period as the world gradually emerges from an energy crisis that had profound impacts on both the supply and demand sides,” said Keisuke Sadamori, IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security. “We expect to see solid growth in global gas demand this year as prices have come down to relatively manageable levels. But the speed at which this new demand can be met will be critical, particularly as supplies are tight and substantial new LNG capacity will only come online after 2024,” he said in a statement.Natural gas prices have fallen sharply following the record highs seen in 2022, which is also supporting the recovery in gas demand. While prices remain well above historical averages, demand in price-sensitive industrial sectors will see a return to growth, according to the report. In power generation, gas use is forecast to increase only marginally, as higher gas burn in the Asia Pacific region, North America and the Middle East is forecast to be partly offset by reduced demand in Europe, the report said.On the supply side, gas availability remained relatively tight in 2023, as the increase in global LNG production fell short of expectations. As such, production growth was not sufficient to offset the continued decline of Russian piped gas deliveries to Europe. The growth in supply was also highly concentrated geographically, with the United States becoming the world’s largest LNG exporter, accounting for 80% of additional LNG supply in 2023.
Shell CEO Says Global LNG Demand Underpinned by Energy Security, Thirsty Asian Markets --An “exceptional” performance for Shell plc’s Integrated Gas trading unit, in parallel with higher LNG volumes, once again propelled profits in the final three months of 2023, with volumes set to climb higher as an Australian export project restarts, CEO Wael Sawan said. The London-based major reported sharply lower fourth quarter profits year/year, notably lacking the natural gas price volatility wrought in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, the world’s largest liquefied natural gas trader held steady on volumes. Look for that to continue in 2024, as Shell is set to restart the Prelude floating LNG project in Australia following a major turnaround.
China Seen Driving LNG Demand Growth Amid Various Supply Constraints - Global natural gas demand is set to rise by 2.5% or 100 billion cubic meters (Bcm) in 2024 versus 2023, likely accompanied by increased price volatility, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). This compares to a demand increase of 0.5% recorded in 2023, the global energy watchdog said in its latest quarterly Gas Market Report. Demand growth this year “is expected to be concentrated in fast-growing markets in Asia Pacific and gas-rich countries in Africa and the Middle East,” researchers said. “The increase in gas demand will be supported by industry, as well as the residential and commercial sectors – assuming a return to average winter weather conditions following mild seasonal weather in 2023.” The global LNG trade, meanwhile, is forecast to grow by 2.5%, or 100 billion cubic metres (bcm).
China to Hike the Price of Gasoline and Diesel -China will raise retail prices for gasoline and diesel starting today, to reflect the increase in international crude oil prices, Xinhua has reported. The price hike will be around $28 per ton for both fuels, the state news agency reported, citing a statement by the National Development and Reform Commission. The price hike is part of China’s standard response to higher international oil prices. Brent crude topped $80 per barrel earlier this month and both it and WTI posted their first monthly gain in January amid the intensifying crisis in the Red Sea and an escalation between the U.S. and Iran. The gain comes despite continued concern about China’s economic growth prospects, which deepened after Beijing reported that manufacturing activity in the country shrank for the fourth month in a row in January. "Economic momentum remained muted as the deflationary pressure persists," one analyst from Pinpoint Asset Management told Reuters and added that he expected the Chinese central bank to cut rates in the first half of the year in order to boost domestic consumption. "It is not clear if the latest rise in the PMIs reflects a further improvement in January or simply the easing of sentiment effects that have been weighing on the surveys," another expert told Reuters. "Either way, it adds to evidence that growth momentum in China is in the midst of a renewed recovery, albeit one that remains on shaky foundations and is unlikely to be sustained once current policy support is pared back," Evan Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics, said.
Shell Makes FID to Convert Hydrocracker, Halt Processing in Wesseling -Shell Deutschland GmbH is halting crude oil processing at the Wesseling site in Germany by 2025 and converting its hydrocracker into a production unit for base oils. Shell has made a final investment decision (FID) to convert the hydrocracker at the Energy and Chemicals Park Rheinland into a production unit for Group III base oils, used in making high-quality lubricants such as engine and transmission oils. Crude oil processing will continue at the Godorf site, the company said in a news release Friday. Shell’s Energy and Chemicals Park Rheinland is located near Cologne and is composed of two sites: Wesseling and Godorf. It currently has capacity to process over 17 million metric tons of crude oil per year, with 7.5 million metric tons being processed at the Wesseling site. The new base oil plant is expected to start operations in the second half of the decade. It will have a production capacity of around 300,000 metric tons per year, equivalent to around 9 percent of current EU demand and 40 percent of Germany’s demand for base oils, Shell said. The high degree of electrification of the plant, as well as the halt of crude oil processing at the Wesseling site, is expected to reduce Shell’s scope 1 and 2 carbon emissions by around 620,000 metric tons per year, the company added. The company had earlier invested in a 10-megawatt electrolyzer to produce renewable hydrogen and a biomethane liquefaction plant at the Rheinland park. Group III base oils are mineral base oils with a very high viscosity index, produced by hydrocracking technology. The market for high-quality engine and transmission oils, as well as e-fluids and cooling fluids, some of which are made from these base oils, is expected to grow, Shell noted
Lukoil shuts oil pipeline in Russia's northwest after decompression (Reuters) -Russian oil producer Lukoil has shut its oilfield pipeline in northwestern Komi Republic after a decompression, the state-run RIA news agency reported on Wednesday citing a company statement. Decompression was detected on an oil pipeline in Yarega within the borders of the administrative centre of Ukhta. The company is currently repairing the pipeline and there is no threat of an oil spill, RIA reported. Lukoil did not respond immediately to a request for comment.
Brazil investigates alleged oil spill from tanker in 2023 (Reuters) - Brazil is looking for information on an alleged September 2023 tanker oil spill off its northern coast, after non-governmental organization Arayara Institute on Thursday said satellite images showed an apparent 170-square-kilometer (66-square-mile) spill. According to a preliminary assessment, the potential leak may have originated from a Panamanian vessel, Arayara Institute, which is focused on environmental issues, the institute said in a statement. The executive secretary at Brazil's environment ministry, Joao Paulo Capobianco, told journalists in Brasilia the government was seeking more details and monitoring the "alleged oil spill". Capobianco said preliminary information the government gathered pointed to a potential oil spill located in international waters off Brazil's coast, though the information needed to be corroborated. The government planned to contact the International Maritime Organization and was coordinating with the Brazilian Navy to ascertain what vessels were present in the area around the time of the alleged incident.
India's Crude Oil Imports Edge Higher In December -- India's crude oil imports rose in December on firm demand, data from Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) showed on Monday. Crude imports in December rose 1.1% year-on-year to 19.83 million metric tons, the data showed, up 7.4% on a monthly basis. Fuel consumption in India, the world's third-biggest oil importer, rose to a seven-month high in December. "There is a general economic pick up, which is a contributor to rising imports," said Prashant Vasisht, vice president and co-head, corporate ratings at ICRA. Crude futures lost over 10% in 2023 in a tumultuous year of trading marked by geopolitical turmoil and concerns about the oil output levels of major producers. [O/R] Besides growing Indian oil demand, lower crude prices also supported imports, said Giovanni Staunovo, analyst at UBS. India's imports of Nigerian crude jumped from November to December, as the country took advantage of Nigeria's large overhang of cargoes, data showed. Data from the PPAC website also showed product imports decreased 4% to 3.89 million tons from December last year, while product exports were 2.5% higher over the same period to 5.84 million tons.
Iraq oil supplies to India surge - India’s import of crude oil reached a multi-year high of 4.9 million barrels a day in January and increased 13% from December 2023, according to data from energy cargo tracker Vortexa. Indian refiners cumulatively had imported 4.3 million barrels a day in December. The country imported 1.20 million barrels a day of Russian crude in January, down by 9% to from 1.32 million barrels a day imported in December 2023 as it continues to face issues in the delivery of Sokol grade of crude oil from the latter, as per Vortexa. Iraq, on the other hand, filled in for lacking Russian supplies and came close to becoming the top supplier with a 13% rise in its supplies to 1.11 million barrels a day in January. “There has been no Sokol crude being discharged in India in January, the second month in a row,” said Serena Huang, analyst at Vortexa. The disruption in Sokol imports is due to US sanctions on Sun Ship Management, whose vessels have been largely involved in the transport of Russian Sokol crude to India, she added.
Iraq’s oil export revenues exceed $8.3 billion in December - Iraqi News – The Iraqi Ministry of Oil confirmed on Sunday that oil export revenues through December surpassed $8.3 billion. According to final statistics issued by the State Organization for Marketing of Oil (SOMO), the total exports of crude oil during December were more than 108.05 million barrels, with revenues exceeding $8.31 billion. SOMO data revealed that the total quantities of crude oil exported during December from oil fields in central and southern Iraq were 107,592,532 barrels, and the quantities exported to Jordan were 464,058 barrels. The average price per barrel was $76.91, compared to $82.36 in November, when the total exports of crude oil were more than 102.97 million barrels, with revenues exceeding $8.48 billion. In October 2023, Iraq’s total exports of crude oil were more than 109.54 million barrels, with revenues exceeding $9.59 billion. The average daily quantity exported from Iraq in September exceeded 3.43 million barrels per day. Iraq exported more than 106.12 million barrels in August, with total revenues of $8,997,851. Iraq’s total exports of crude oil in July were more than 106.75 million barrels, with revenues estimated at $8.3 billion. The country’s oil export revenues in June were about $7.11 billion, compared to more than $7.3 billion in May.
Oil spill disaster impacts threatened pelicans in India The IFAW-Wildlife Trust of India (WTI) team was called on this January to provide technical expertise to the Tamil Nadu Forest Department and Besant Memorial Animal Dispensary (BMAD) on the rehabilitation and veterinary care of 10 spot-billed pelicans rescued from the Ennore oil leak disaster in Chennai, India. Spot-billed pelicans are listed as ‘Near Threatened’ on the IUCN Red List. They are also the only species of pelicans known to breed in India. However, over the past month, their population along the Chennai coast has been severely affected by the recent oil spill, part of the aftermath of the cyclone Michaung. Reported first on 4 December, an oil spill from the Chennai Petroleum Corporation Limited (CPCL) spread quickly along the Kosasthalaiyar River, the Ennore Creek, and into the sea. The floods, resulting from the cyclone Michaung, aided in the quick spread, causing a serious threat to wildlife and fishermen in the backwaters. Species inhabiting the area include large and median egrets, pond herons, cormorants, grey herons, stilts, Caspian terns, painted storks, and spot-billed pelicans. At its height, the team observed nearly 50-60 pelicans in the area in one day, and we predict there were as many as 200 pelicans affected. ‘Pelicans float [on] the surface and dive to catch fish, and this has been the reason why they have been the most affected species in this event,’ said Rudra Mahapatra, IFAW-WTI ERN responder. ‘The team also identified black-winged stilts and painted storks with oil sludge covering their legs. Other diving birds like cormorants and darters too have been affected.’ Tamil Nadu government promptly acted to contain the damage with ‘close to 900 personnel, including trained sea cleaning agencies and local fishermen, deployed to remove 105.82 kiloliters of oily water and 393.5 tonnes of oily sludge from the Enoore Creek’, as per an official statement by Supriya Sahu, Additional Chief Secretary of the Environment, Climate Change, and Forest Department. The (ERN) acts as a platform for expert and amateur rehabilitators and those working for wildlife conservation, including wildlife veterinarians, forest officials, biologists, and others, to exchange, share, and contribute their knowledge and professional skills in the care of animals in crisis and distress. ERN personnel trained in bird rescue, treatment, and rehabilitation deployed to the Ennore oil spill to join responders from BMAD in rescuing affected birds. Sadly, the pelicans can only be captured when they become weak, a process that requires diligent monitoring day to day. ’Once a bird is captured, it is given hydration, and the basic cleaning of orifices is done on the field,’ . ‘On being brought to the temporary enclosure, they are thoroughly cleaned using vegetable oil and liquid detergents capable of removing oil.’ The birds are initially tube-fed with fish broth before they start feeding on their own on live and dead fishes. The team has installed inflatable water tubs on sandy flooring for the birds inside the enclosures. There are also branches provided for them to perch upon. Ultraviolet lamps and sometimes blowers are used to provide warmth to the birds when required. Carcasses of cormorants and pelicans have also been recovered from the creek. There has been a high mortality of fish as well. To help large birds, the team established feeding stations by bringing in fresh fish from outside—the same species found in backwaters. ‘There are at least 20-25 more pelicans that need to be rescued and attended to,’ added Dr. NVK Ashraf, chief veterinarian with Wildlife Trust of India (WTI). ‘Once they are cleansed of oil and oil debris, they should be made fit to survive in the wild. The process is going to take some time.’
Reps urge oil companies to contain oil spillage in Southern Ijaw - The House of Representatives has called on the Management of all companies who own facilities along the coastal areas to immediately contain and stop the oil leakages in some communities of Southern Ijaw area of Bayelsa State. The House has also mandated its Committee on Petroleum (Upstream) to synergize with relevant Ministries, Departments and Agencies of government to carry out an extensive investigation into the immediate and remote causes of the Spillage. The committee is also to ascertain which company’s Facility is responsible for the Spill, remediation activities put in place to contain the Spillage and future occurrence, assess the extent of devastation and impact to the Coastal Communities of Southern Ijaw Federal Constituency and Report to the House for further legislative action. The further called on the National Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency (NOSDRA), National Oil Pollution Management Agency (NOPMA), National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA), Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA) and the Federal Ministry of Environment to pay assessment visits on the site with a view to ascertaining the level of environmental damage and recommend appropriate remedial measures. These resolutions followed the adoption of a motion of urgent public importance on the need to contain oil spillage in order to forestall further environmental damage in the affeected area, sponsored by Hon. Rodney Ambaiowei on Tuesday. He noted that Southern Ijaw Federal Constituency and several constituencies of the South-South Nigeria host Oil Installations, Facilities and companies in the Oil exploration, exploitation and production process in Nigeria, adding that several Oil companies like FIRST E& P, Connoil, NEPL, SPDC and NIGDEL UNITED OIL Company have pipelines and other facilities which traverses many coastal communities in Southern Ijaw. The lawmaker expressed shock that on the 3rd of January, 2024, the people of Foropah, Ekeni and Ezetu Kingdoms woke up to a devastating oil spillages from the atlantic which has destroyed their only source of livelihood, which is fishing and Farming, saying findings reveal that the Oil Spillage is occasioned by the leakages from the facilities operated by the following companies.
Nigeria oil enters unclear new era after Shell's onshore asset sale -Shell's exit from Nigeria's onshore oil sector highlights risks oil majors face in Africa's biggest exporter but has raised hopes that local firms could reverse the output decline from the Niger Delta, industry officials and analysts said. Shell – which pioneered Nigeria's oil industry – is the most prominent Western company to exit the Delta, a region blighted by pollution, oil theft and pipeline vandalism. Those issues have for years stymied investment – and throttled production and government finances. The company's sale of its subsidiary to five mostly local firms fits an ongoing trend of Western energy companies divesting onshore Nigerian oil fields. Exxon, Italy's Eni, Norway's Equinor and China's Addax have struck deals to sell assets in the country in recent years. "Nigeria has had well-established problems in policy in the oil sector, and the FX policy concerns have put constraints on investments. That's probably partially why you have seen the majors pulling out, and disinvesting to some extent," said Andrew Matheny, senior economist with Goldman Sachs. "It explains a significant portion of the decline in oil production in recent years." President Bola Tinubu took office last May pledging to remove obstacles faced by producers, including ending crude theft and pipeline vandalism. But seven months into his presidency, the asset sales, which were well underway before his election, highlight the inexorable changes to the country's oil sector. "If companies are now leaving the less capital-intensive onshore operations to focus on offshore operations, it sends a perfect picture of the risk involved in doing business in Nigeria," said Seyi Awojulugbe, a senior analyst at security consultancy SBM Intelligence in Lagos.
Iran’s oil exports rise 50% in 2023, reaching 5-year high: report - Tehran Times - Iran's crude oil exports grew by roughly 50 percent in 2023 to a five-year high of about 1.29 million barrels per day (bpd), with the vast majority going to China, Nikkei Asia reported. The report, citing the International Energy Agency (IEA), put Iran’s oil production at 2.99 million bpd last year, 440,000 barrels more than in 2022. As reported, IEA predicts a further rise of 160,000 barrels of Iran’s oil exports in 2024. This increase is expected to contribute to a less tight market, alongside increases by the U.S. and Brazil. The IEA sees global supply rising by 1.5 million bpd to an all-time high this year. The Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security forecasts the supply-demand balance flipping from a shortfall of 110,000 bpd last year to a 600,000-barrel surplus in 2024. Brisk Chinese demand is encouraging Iran to ramp up production. Roughly 90 percent of Iran's crude oil exports went to China, data from European research firm Kpler shows. While OPEC members and Russia have been coordinating output cuts, Iran is not subject to quotas despite being part of the bloc, due to its sanctions-fueled economic struggles. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi's administration has been building ties with Beijing amid the tensions with the U.S. and Europe. Raisi and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping met in China last February and agreed to call for U.S. sanctions to be lifted. China's 40-plus small and midsize independent refiners often buy oil from Iran with yuan, according to Reuters and other sources. Iranian crude traded at an average discount of $13 to Brent last year.
OPEC oil output falls in January on new cuts, Libya --OPEC oil output in January registered the biggest monthly drop since July, a Reuters survey found, as several members implemented new voluntary production cuts agreed with the wider OPEC+ alliance and unrest curbed Libyan output.The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped 26.33 million barrels per day (bpd) this month, down 410,000 bpd from December, the survey found. December's total strips out Angola, which has left OPEC.The latest decline marks a further drop in market share for OPEC, which began curbing output in late 2022, in order to support the market and counter increased output from non-OPEC countries such as Brazil and the United States.In January, the biggest decline came from Libya, one of the OPEC members not required to restrain output, after unrest prompted the shutdown of the Sharara oilfield, one of the country's largest.
Rising US oil production frustrates OPEC⁺ cuts (Reuters) - U.S. oil and gas drilling has slowed in response to the fall in prices over the last 18 months, but that has not yet translated into slower production, keeping prices under pressure. Exploration and production firms have continued to increase output despite drilling fewer wells, by concentrating on the best sites, accelerating drilling times and boring longer horizontal sections for each well. In the oil market, efficiency gains have frustrated efforts by Saudi Arabia and its allies in OPEC⁺ to drain global oil inventories and boost prices. In gas, where there is no equivalent of OPEC⁺, continued production growth has kept prices close to three-decade lows in real terms. The critical question is how much longer efficiency gains can keep driving significant output growth without an increase in prices and drilling. Front-month U.S. crude futures averaged $77 per barrel (49th percentile for all months since the start of the century) in November 2023, down from a high of $121 (82nd percentile) in June 2022, after adjusting for inflation. The slide in oil futures resulted in a slowdown in drilling activity with the expected delay of around five months, reflecting the time taken to finish drilling wells currently underway and for short-term contracts to expire. The number of active rigs drilling for oil averaged 498 in November 2023 down from a high of 623 in December 2022, according to weekly counts published by oilfield services company Baker Hughes. But production continued to increase and set a new monthly record of 13.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in November 2023, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Chartbook: U.S. oil and gas production. Production from the Lower 48 states excluding federal waters in the Gulf of Mexico hit 11.0 million b/d for the first time (“Petroleum supply monthly”, EIA, January 31, 2024). Lower 48 output had increased by 873,000 b/d (9%) compared with the same month a year earlier and there was no sign of growth decelerating significantly. Total production from the Lower 48 and other areas was up by 28 million barrels in November 2023 compared with the same month in 2022. For the first 11 months of 2023, total production increased by 337 million barrels compared with the same period in 2022. Persistent growth in U.S. production is one reason prices have remained around $70-80 despite multiple rounds of output cuts by Saudi Arabia and its allies. Front-month U.S. futures prices had fallen to an average of $3.06 per million British thermal units (12th percentile since 2000) in November 2023 down from $9.24 (79th percentile) in August 2022, after adjusting for inflation. The number of active rigs declined to an average of 117 in November 2023 from a high of 162 in September 2022, according to Baker Hughes. In contrast to oil, production growth has slowed, though not as much as might be expected given the sharp deceleration in drilling. Dry gas production climbed to a seasonal record of 3,178 billion cubic feet (bcf) in November 2023, according to the Energy Information Administration (“Natural gas monthly”, EIA, January 31, 2024). Production was 111 bcf (4%) higher than in the same month a year earlier but growth had slowed progressively from 168 bcf (6%) in February 2023. With no equivalent of OPEC⁺ to act as swing producer and support prices, gas prices have fallen more heavily than oil, with price signals playing a much bigger role in rebalancing the market. But like oil, persistent production growth has kept gas prices under pressure; they slid further to $2.54 (5th percentile) in December and $2.81 (9th percentile) in January 2024. Ironically, OPEC output cuts have intensified the downward pressure on gas prices. By keeping oil prices artificially elevated it has kept U.S. oil output higher than it would otherwise have been and in turn boosted production of associated gas from oil wells.
In Shocking Reversal, Saudi State Unexpectedly Orders Aramco To Drop Oil Capacity Expansion Plans Oil traders were stunned this morning, when - in a huge reversal to its prior plans - the Saudi state ordered Aramco to stop work on expanding its maximum sustainable capacity to 13 million barrels daily, instead keeping it at 12 million bpd, ensuring that peak capacity will remain lower than projected rising demand for years to come, effectively pressuring oil prices much higher over the long run (unless of course the world figures out cold fusion in the next few years). The company said in a statement today that its maximum sustainable capacity is determined by the state under a law from 2017. Aramco added that it would update its capital spending plans for the year in accordance with the new government directive in March when it announces its 2023 financial results.Saudi Arabia currently has capacity for 12 million and is producing about 9 million a day, after it curbed output as part of OPEC+ efforts to revive the global oil market and prevent a surplus. Back in 2021, Saudi Arabia’s state oil company said it was working to boost its production capacity to 13 million barrels daily, a capacity expansion it predicted would come fully online by 2027 and in chunks, chief executive Amin Nasser said at the time.The surprise move comes after the world’s biggest oil exporter had said in November that it was progressing “very well” with the multibillion-dollar project to boost capacity to 13 million barrels a day by 2027 as demand in China and India continues to grow. The Saudi giant, the world’s biggest oil firm and the largest oil exporter globally, was working as fast as it could to reach that production capacity expansion, the executive said, noting that upstream investment has a long lead time.According to Bloomberg, the change in the investment plan ordered by the Saudi government comes at a time when Aramco has significantly increased dividend payments to the state, its primary owner. The kingdom is running a fiscal deficit as it spends tens of billions of dollars on efforts to diversify the economy into areas such as sports and tourism.The decision will take out a significant portion of the supply buffer that traders were expecting for later this decade, a gap that may be hard to fill by others. Maintaining additional spare capacity is expensive, especially when the country is already producing well below its maximum rate and demand growth is likely to slow with the energy transition. Ironically, Aramco’s CEO has often warned the market that the industry is underinvesting in new oil supply, which, regardless of many scenarios, will continue to be needed for decades. Well, as of today the biggest underinvestor is none other than Aramco, whose move is seen as either a draconian attempt to contain supply capacity in the face of growing Indian and Chinese demand, or - according to the bears - a signal that said demand will simply not materialize.
Drone Attack by Iran-Backed Militants on U.S. Troops in Northeastern Jordan - The oil market gapped higher on the opening on Sunday evening from $78.26 to $78.90 after three U.S. service members were killed and about 40 were wounded in a drone attack by Iran-backed militants on U.S. troops in northeastern Jordan near the Syrian border. The crude market quickly rallied to a high of $79.29 before it backfilled its gap in overnight trading. The market continued to trend lower despite the attack and any potential U.S. response that is likely to cause fears of wider conflict in the Middle East. The oil market erased some of last week’s sharp gains as it extended its losses to $1.60 and posted a low of $76.41 ahead of the close. The March WTI contract settled down $1.23 at $76.78 and the March Brent contract settled down $1.15 at $82.40. The product markets ended the session in negative territory, with the heating oil market settling down 95 points at $2.8339 and the RB market settling down 6.56 cents at $2.2285. The U.S. Energy Department said the Biden administration has awarded Strategic Petroleum Reserve contracts for 3.1 million barrels of oil worth more than $242 million to Exxon, Macquarie, Phillips 66 and Sunoco.On Sunday, U.S. President Joe Biden and U.S. officials said three U.S. service members were killed and at least 34 wounded in a drone attack by Iran-backed militants on U.S. troops in northeastern Jordan near the Syrian border. It is the first deadly strike against U.S. forces since the Israel-Hamas war started in October, and marks a major escalation in tensions that have engulfed the Middle East. President Biden asked for a moment of silence for the three killed service members during a campaign event in South Carolina, adding: "We shall respond." He said "Have no doubt - we will hold all those responsible to account at a time and in a manner of our choosing." U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin echoed that threat. He vowed that the U.S. would take “all necessary actions” to defend its troops. He and other senior officials briefed Biden earlier in the day on the attack. U.S. troops have been attacked over 150 times in Iraq, Syria and Jordan as well as on warships in the Red Sea, where Houthi fighters in Yemen have been firing drones and missiles at them. On Monday, Iran's mission to the United Nations said in a statement that Tehran was not involved in the attack. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella organization of hardline Iran-backed militant groups, claimed attacks on three bases, including one on the Jordan-Syria border. While the United States has thus far maintained an official line that Washington is not at war in the region, it has been retaliating against the Iran-backed groups in Iraq and Syria and carrying out strikes against Yemen’s Houthi military capabilities.U.S. National security spokesman, John Kirby, said the United States does not want a wider war with Iran or the region, adding that the administration believes a single drone was responsible for targeting U.S. service members in Jordan over the weekend. He said President Biden was looking at how to respond to the Jordan attack. On Monday, Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis said they had fired a rocket at U.S. warship Lewis B. Puller in the Gulf of Aden on Sunday.The North Dakota Pipeline Authority said less than 5% of North Dakota’s oil output remained shut in due to extreme cold weather and operational challenges. It said oil output in North Dakota was estimated to be down 10,000 bpd to 40,000 bpd.
Oil Erases Gains as Middle East Turmoil Escalates Erasing overnight gains, West Texas Intermediate futures and Brent crude stalled near two-month highs Monday morning after a weekend attack on a U.S. military base in northeast Jordan killed three U.S. service men and left dozens injured in a clear escalation of ongoing tensions across the Middle East. Additionally, Houthi militias struck an oil tanker carrying Russian fuel through the Gulf of Aden this weekend, forcing markets to reprice the risk of safe passage for Russian barrels through the Red Sea. Both WTI and Brent jumped 1.5% in Asian trading following Sunday's attack on U.S. military outpost Tower 22, located on the border between Jordan and Syria. The deadly attack marked the first time U.S. troops have been killed in the Middle East since the beginning of the war in Gaza. Pentagon officials have since said the drone was fired by one of the Iran-backed militias in Syria, but it is still being determined which militia group specifically is responsible. President Biden on Sunday vowed to hold those responsible for the attack accountable, saying that while facts are still being gathered, "We know it was carried out by radical Iran-backed militant groups operating in Syria and Iraq." For his part, Iran's Foreign Minister Nasser Kanaani denied Tehran's involvement in Sunday's attack, saying, "The regional resistance groups do not take orders from Iran," according to state news agency IRNA. Iran has either backed or sponsored over a dozen militia groups operating throughout the Middle East, including in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. . Oil futures have since erased overnight gains as investors assessed the degree of Iran's involvement in the attack on the U.S. outpost and a potential response from the Biden Administration. For the oil markets, a direct attack on a Russian oil tanker passing through the Gulf of Aden this weekend could have a more meaningful impact as it casts a shadow on safe passage for some 1.7 million barrels of Russian crude oil flowing through the Red Sea each day. So far, Russian oil flows have been unaffected by the ongoing conflict but that can change any moment as violence escalates. Near 7:45 a.m. EST, front-month Brent for March delivery on ICE traded at $83.51 barrel (bbl) after spiking to $84.80 bbl overnight. West Texas Intermediate futures for March delivery were little changed near $77.97 bbl. NYMEX February ULSD futures slipped $0.0062 to $2.8372 gallon and February RBOB futures declined $0.0150 to $2.2791 gallon. Limiting upside for the oil complex, the U.S. dollar strengthened 0.11% against the basket of foreign currencies to trade near 103.345 as investors digested the latest round of inflation data in the United States. The Personal Income and Outlays report -- a preferred inflation measure by the Federal Reserve, rose 2.6% in the 12 months ending in December, matching the annual increase in November. But the core PCE index dropped by a much steeper margin to 2.9% from November's 3.2% annual gain. This marked the lowest reading since before the pandemic. Interestingly, the retreat in inflation happened even as the personal consumption index surged 0.7% -- a much larger gain than expected by markets. Meanwhile, U.S. gross domestic product increased by a solid 3.3% during the final three months of 2023, well above the average growth rate of 2.3% from 2015-2019. Stronger-than-expected macroeconomic data again prompted repricing rate cuts this year, with investors almost equally split over the odds for the first rate cut in March. The Federal Open Market Committee will hold its first policy meeting of 2024 on Jan. 31.
Why oil prices are falling despite 'grave escalation' of Middle East crisis -- A drone strike Sunday killed three U.S. troops in Jordan over the weekend, raising the potential for further violence in the oil-rich Middle East, but the news failed to spark a lasting rise for crude prices on Monday. The deaths of three Americans represents a "grave escalation," in the Middle East conflict. "While the Pentagon may label any response as 'proportionate,' it's evident that participating U.S. forces will aim to neutralize threats decisively." Meanwhile, attacks on ships in the Red Sea by the Iran-backed Houthi rebel group have prompted ongoing U.S. airstrikes in Yemen, he said. "Iran's actions risk inviting a more robust U.S. air campaign against its regional assets, highlighting the precariousness of the situation and the potential for further escalation." Biden has said the U.S. "shall respond" to the attack, and "hold all those responsible to account at a time and in a manner (of) our choosing." Biden met Monday with his national security team to discuss the latest developments regarding the attack. Biden and oil But Anas Alhajji, an independent energy expert and managing partner at Energy Outlook Advisors, told MarketWatch that the Biden administration is "most likely to retaliate without affecting the oil markets." In a post on X Sunday, he said the Biden administration "cannot retaliate for the attack on the U.S. base on the Jordanian-Syrian border in a way that increases oil prices. Anything above $85 Brent is a danger zone in an election year." Everyone knows that the Biden administration does not want oil prices to increase above current levels, he told MarketWatch. In Monday dealings, global benchmark Brent crude for March delivery (BRN00) (BRNH24) traded at $82.66 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, down 89 cents, or 1.1%, after settling Friday at the highest since early November. U.S. benchmark March West Texas Intermediate crude (CL.1) (CLH24) fell 75 cents, or 1%, to $77.26 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. U.S. negotiators, meanwhile, have made progress toward an agreement under which Israel would pause military operations against Hamas in Gaza for two months in return for the release of m ore than 100 hostages captured in the Oct. 7 attack on Israel. That's contributed to lower prices for oil, Chinese oil demand, "or the lack thereof is still key concern" as well. That helps to explain "why the upside is limited" for oil. China's crude imports had fallen to a four-month low of 10.37 million barrels per day in November before rising rose 10% month on month in December to 11.44 million barrels per day, S&P Global Commodity Insights reported, citing data from China's General Administration of Customs. China is the world's largest importer of crude oil. Earlier this month, data from China's National Bureau of Statistics showed that gross domestic product expanded 5.2% in 2023, finishing the year at one of the lowest levels in decades. On Monday, in another sign of China's economic woes, a Hong Kong court ordered property-development giant Evergrande Group to liquidate after railing to reach a restructuring deal with creditors. China showed a massive increase in oil demand from 2022 to 2023, said Alex Hodes, energy analyst at StoneX, but that was due to the removal of COVID-19 restrictions and "not 'natural' growth." China has been an "opportunistic buyer in the oil market - filling up inventories when prices were distressed and this has provided a lower limit on where prices can go, along with OPEC cutting production," he said. For now, U.S. benchmark WTI oil prices are running into technical resistance at the 100-day moving average, which is "likely one of the biggest drivers of the price move lower," Hodes told MarketWatch. The 100-day moving average for the March WTI contract was at $77.82 Monday, FactSet data show. Looking at the bigger picture, Hodes said his outlook for oil this year is a "tale of two halves." The first half of the year is likely to see oil markets tighten in "response to the OPEC+ production cuts in place and geopolitical premium in the market," he said. In the latter half of the year, it is likely that markets "loosen and prices retrace," Hodes said, "setting the stage for an overall sideways market on the year." Any potential supply disruptions could be "alleviated by OPEC's large amount of production capacity on the sideline...which could be brought on in a moments notice," he said, estimating that amount at around 6 million barrels per day. "This should help dampen volatility in supply disruptions."
The Real Estate Crisis in China Fueled Concerns Over its Oil Demand - On Tuesday, the oil market traded within its recent trading range after the market sold off early in the session and later retraced its earlier losses. The crude market continued to trade lower and extended its previous losses on demand concerns after a Hong Kong court ordered the liquidation of China’s property developer Evergrande. The real estate crisis in China fueled concerns over its oil demand. The market sold off to a low of $75.85 early in the session. However, the market bounced off its low and retraced all of its losses. The crude market traded back over the $78.00 level amid concerns surrounding the conflict escalation in the Middle East after a drone attack launched by Iran-backed militia killed U.S. service members in Jordan over the weekend. U.S. President Joe Biden announced that he made a decision on how to respond to the drone attack, although he did not elaborate on his decision. Also, earlier in the morning, Saudi Aramco said it received a directive from the government to maintain its maximum sustainable capacity at 12 million bpd and not continue increasing its capacity to 13 million bpd, which would leave the country with a lower production buffer in the future in the event of supply shocks. The oil market posted a high of $78.14 in afternoon trading. The March WTI contract settled up $1.04 at $77.82 and the March Brent contract settled up 47 cents at $82.87. The product markets ended the session mixed, with the heating oil market settling down 2.71 cents at $2.8068 and the RB market settling up 3.22 cents at $2.2607.A Department of Energy document showed that the U.S. is seeking to buy about 3 million barrels of U.S. produced sour crude for the SPR for delivery in June.U.S. President Joe Biden said he has made up his mind on how to respond to a drone attack that killed U.S. service members in Jordan. He did not elaborate on his decision, which came after consultations with top advisers at the White House. He said the U.S. does not needs a wider war in the Middle East, echoing comments from other officials that the U.S. does not want a war with Iran. Meanwhile, White House national security spokesman John Kirby said the U.S. could have a tiered response to the drone attack that killed three U.S. service members in Jordan that could involve multiple actions rather than a single action. J.P. Morgan said the spreading conflict in the Middle East remains the most visible and growing risk for energy markets.The Kremlin, when asked about potential U.S. strikes on Iranian interests, said tensions in the Middle East were high and that steps were needed to de-escalate rather than destabilize the wider region.The U.S. State Department said the U.S. will not renew an expiring general license for Venezuela’s oil and gas sector unless there is political progress between President Nicolas Maduro's government and the opposition.Saudi Aramco said it would cut its planned maximum sustainable oil production capacity to 12 million bpd, down from 13 million bpd. A source said the move in no way reflects a change of view on future oil demand scenarios nor stems from any technical issue, but was simply a directive from the government.
Oil Reverse Losses as Markets Await US Response in Mideast -- Following choppy trading for most of the session, West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude futures eked out solid gains during the afternoon session Tuesday as market participants await a U.S. response to a deadly drone attack on a military outpost in Jordan as the Biden administration weighs options on how to retaliate against Iran-backed militias without triggering a wider conflict in the Middle East. John Kirby, Coordinator for Strategic Communications for the National Security Council, told reporters aboard Air Force One Tuesday that the United States is considering a "tiered approach, not a single action, but essentially multiple actions" in response to Sunday's attack on a U.S. military base that left three service members dead and dozens injured. There have been more than 159 attacks on U.S. troops in the Middle East since the outbreak of the Gaza War on Oct. 7. President Joe Biden on Tuesday said he "has made up his mind about the response," but did not provide any details on whether the United States would hit targets in Iran or its proxies across the region. Iran has either backed or sponsored over a dozen militia groups operating throughout the Middle East, including in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. Preliminary evidence suggests the drone strike that killed three U.S. servicemembers on Sunday was launched from Iraq by the "Islamic Resistance of Iraq," an umbrella group backed by Iran. Domestically, oil traders await the release of weekly U.S. inventory reports beginning with a private survey from the American Petroleum Institute scheduled for 4:30 PM ET, followed by the official data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration Wednesday morning. Consensus of analysts surveyed by the Wall Street Journal reveal commercial crude stockpiles likely fell by 800,000 bbl during the week-ended Jan. 26. This would follow an outsized 9.2 million bbl drawdown reported in the prior week that pressed nationwide inventories to 5% below the five-year average. In refined fuels, gasoline inventories are seen to have increased 1.4 million bbl, while distillate supplies are expected to have fallen 800,000 bbl in the reviewed week. Refinery runs are seen to have risen 1.7% for the week ended Jan. 26 to 87.2% of capacity, according to the survey. The muted start to Tuesday's trading session came as market participants digested the latest economic data out of the Eurozone, showing the 19-country bloc narrowly missed a recession last year. The Eurozone's gross domestic product was essentially flat at 0% during the final three months of 2023, following a 0.1% contraction reported in the second quarter, showed data released overnight from Eurostat. A rebound in the peripheral economies of Belgium, Spain, and Portugal, helped to mitigate a depressed growth across Europe's largest economies -- Germany and France. Germany in particular has become "Europe's sick man," having reported a contraction for the second consecutive quarter. A combination of high energy prices, slowing global trade, and record-breaking interest rates have been a drag on an export-oriented manufacturing-based German economy last year and the outlook doesn't look so bright in 2024. China, Germany's largest trading partner, is struggling to recover and return to its pre-pandemic growth rate and Russia, a former energy supplier for the German industries, has all but severed its trade ties with Berlin. The International Monetary Fund forecasts Germany will be the only G7 economy that shrank in 2023, contracting 0.9%, while growth is expected to remain well below the average of 1.4% for advanced economies in 2024. At settlement, the international crude benchmark Brent for March delivery gained $0.47 to $82.87 bbl, with the next-month April contract narrowing its discount to $0.37 bbl. WTI March futures increased $1.04 to $77.82 bbl. NYMEX February RBOB futures advanced $0.0322 to $2.2607 gallon, with the front-month ULSD contract an outlier, declining $0.0271 to $2.8068 gallon.
Data Showing That Manufacturing Activity in China Contracted for the Fourth Consecutive Month in January --The oil market remained pressured on Wednesday amid some weak economic data from China and an unexpected build in crude stocks. The market posted a high of $78.11 in overnight trading before it erased some of Tuesday’s gains. The market traded lower on data showing that manufacturing activity in China contracted for the fourth consecutive month in January. It was the latest sign of the country’s economy struggling to regain momentum after a court ordered the liquidation of property developer Evergrande. The market remained pressured throughout the session as the EIA reported an unexpected build in crude stocks of 1.2 million barrels on the week. It retraced little more than 38% of its move from $69.56 to a high of $79.29 as it sold off to a low of $75.52 in afternoon trading. The March WTI contract settled down $1.97 at $75.85 and the March Brent contract settled down $1.16 at $81.71. The product markets were mixed, with the heating oil market settling up 14 points at $2.8082 and the RB market settling down 7.74 cents at $2.1833. The EIA said U.S. weekly gasoline stocks increased by 1.2 million barrels in the week ending January 26th to 254.1 million barrels, the most since February 2021. U.S. Midwest gasoline stocks increased by 900,000 barrels to 60.7 million barrels, the highest level since February 2022. The EIA also reported that U.S. weekly field production increased by 700,000 bpd on the week to 13 million bpd as wells returned to service after freezing during extreme cold in mid-January.The U.S. Central Command said U.S. forces struck and destroyed Yemen’s Houthi surface-to-air missile which was prepared to launch. It stated that “U.S. forces identified the missile in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen and determined that it presented an imminent threat to U.S. aircraft.”Russian Deputy Prime Minister, Alexander Novak, said that current oil prices adequately reflect current market situation, while global oil demand is widely seen increasing by about 2 million bpd. The EIA reported that U.S. crude oil production in November increased 0.6% to a new monthly record of 13.31 million bpd. The EIA reported that U.S. crude oil exports fell to 3.967 million bpd in November from 4.112 million bpd in October, while total refined oil product exports increased to 2.882 million bpd in November from 2.811 million bpd in October. U.S. total oil demand in November increased by 2.5% or 496,000 bpd on the year to 20.71 million bpd. Distillates demand in November fell by 1.2% or 48,000 bpd to 4.011 million bpd and gasoline demand increased by 0.2% or 18,000 bpd to 8.845 million bpd.IIR Energy reported that U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 1.8 million bpd of capacity in the week ending February 2nd, cutting available refining capacity by 225,000 bpd.The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday but took a major step towards lowering them in coming months in a policy statement that tempered inflation concerns with other risks to the economy and dropped a longstanding reference to possible further hikes in borrowing costs.
Oil, Stocks Fall After Powell Dismisses Rate Cut in March - Oil futures nearest delivery deepened losses during the afternoon session Wednesday as a bearish inventory report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) was joined by a stronger U.S. dollar. It followed hawkish remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell who pushed back against cutting interest rates in March. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the federal funds rate unchanged at a 5% by 5.25% target range, delivering no surprise to the markets. FOMC "does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range for the fed funds rate until it has gained full confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward a 2% target," according to the FOMC policy statement released this afternoon following the committee's two-day policy meeting. However, Powell's comments during the news conference after the rate announcement signaled the Fed's reluctance to cut interest rates soon. "We are looking for greater confidence that inflation is moving towards 2%. We need to see more good data. We had six months of good inflation data. The question is: Does it send us a true signal that we are in fact on a sustainable path towards 2%?" said Powell. The economy finds itself at the crossroads of strong growth, a solid labor market and falling inflation -- a rare mixture of ingredients that have caused many economists to scratch their heads. U.S. gross domestic product expanded at a 3.3% clip during the fourth quarter of 2023, driven mainly by strong consumer demand. The labor market, although showing some signs of rebalancing to pre-pandemic norms, added an average of 190,000 new jobs during the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, inflation has come down significantly to an average of 2.6% on an annualized basis, according to the latest Personal Consumption and Expenditure Index. While Powell acknowledged progress with inflation, he cautioned against easing monetary policy too soon, seemingly dismissing the likelihood of a March rate cut. Following Powell's remarks, the U.S. dollar index rallied against a basket of foreign currencies, although still ending weaker at 103.089. Front-month West Texas Intermediate settled near a session low at $75.85 per barrel (bbl), down $1.97. The international crude benchmark Brent contract for March delivery expired $1.16 lower at $81.71 bbl, with the next-month April contract expanding its discount against the expired contract to $1.16 bbl. NYMEX February RBOB futures dropped back $0.0774 gallon to expire at $2.1833 gallon, with the next-month contract finishing the session at $2.2312 gallon. Moving in the opposite direction, NYMEX February ULSD contract firmed $0.0014 to settle at $2.8082 gallon, with the March contract edging $0.0086 higher at $2.7852 gallon. Wednesday's inventory report released midmorning by the EIA was mostly bearish for the oil complex, showing commercial crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased last week as crude production rebounded and refinery run rates continued lower following disruptions from an Arctic blast earlier this month. Refinery runs turned sharply lower during the week ended Jan. 26, falling 2.6% to the lowest run rate since December 2022 at 82.9% of capacity. Domestic refineries processed 428,000 barrels per day (bpd) less crude less week with crude inputs at 14.848 million bpd. Gulf Coast refineries decreased crude throughputs for the second straight week, averaging 7.758 million bpd last week which likely reflects an earlier start to the spring maintenance season. Domestic oil production, meanwhile, rebounded much quicker than initially expected, with operators recovering 700,000 bpd of shut-in crude from the prior week to lift output to 13 million bpd. Despite the turn lower in refinery runs amid maintenance, gasoline stocks continued to build amid weakness in domestic demand. Gasoline supplied to the U.S. market, a measure of demand, recovered 264,000 bpd from the prior week to 8.144 million bpd. Gasoline stockpiles increased 1.2 million bbl to 254.1 million bbl compared to expectations for a 1.4 million bbl build. Distillate inventories decreased 2.5 million bbl during the week ended Jan. 26 to 130.8 million bbl -- roughly 4% below the five-year average. Implied demand for middle distillates stalled near a depressed level of 3.757 million bpd.
Oil prices drop 2% on unsubstantiated ceasefire reports, refinery shutdown (Reuters) - Oil prices fell over 2% on Thursday after unsubstantiated reports of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas and after a power outage forced a large U.S. refinery to shut. A Qatari official told Reuters there was no ceasefire yet, but repeated that Hamas had received a ceasefire proposal made earlier this week positively. Brent crude futures dropped $1.85, or 2.5%, to settle at $78.70 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell $2.03, or 2.7%, to $73.82. Tensions in the Middle East have recently boosted oil prices. Attacks by Yemen-based Houthi forces on vessels in the Red Sea have persisted, driving up costs and disrupting global oil trading. The Houthi group also said it would keep up attacks on U.S. and British warships in what it called acts of self-defense. Meanwhile, BP Thursday said it was in the process of shutting down its 435,000 barrel-per-day (bpd) Whiting, Indiana, refinery after a power outage. The City of Whiting said the power outage prompted visible flaring as products were burned off. Earlier, two OPEC+ sources said the group would decide in March whether or not to extend voluntary oil production cuts in place for the first quarter, after a ministerial panel meeting made no changes to the group's output policy. OPEC+ currently has 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of voluntary oil production cuts, announced in November. Oil prices had climbed in earlier trading after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday said interest rates had peaked and would move lower in coming months, with inflation continuing to fall and an expectation of sustained economic growth. Lower interest rates and economic growth help oil demand. Powell declined to promise that rate cuts would come as early as the Fed's March 19-20 meeting, as investors had hoped. The U.S. also released on Thursday data showing worker productivity grew faster than expected in the fourth quarter, keeping unit labor costs contained and giving the Fed another boost in the fight against inflation. U.S. manufacturing stabilized in January amid a rebound in new orders, but inflation at the factory gate picked up.
Oil price news: oil drop deepens as Gaza talks push crude below key price levels - Oil slumped as talks to pause the Israel-Hamas war reduced crude’s geopolitical risk premium, with the decline accelerating after the commodity slipped below key technical levels. West Texas Intermediate fell 2.1 per cent to settle around US$72 a barrel. Futures are down 7.3 per cent since last Friday — the biggest weekly tumble since early October. Early negotiations to halt bombardments and release hostages are bolstering prospects for a resolution to the four-month conflict, which has threatened Middle East energy flows. Headlines on the talks and oil’s drop below its 200-day and 50-day moving averages triggered trend-following algorithms, exacerbating the decline. Meanwhile, there have been several indications that world markets remain adequately supplied. On Friday, WTI’s prompt spread — the difference between its two nearest contracts — flipped as much as 5 cents into contango, a bearish structure that shows weakening demand for near-term barrels. Embedded Image The spillover from the war in Israel and Gaza, most notably disruptions to shipping in the Red Sea, has been among the key drivers pushing crude futures higher this year. Still, Yemen-based Houthi militants continue to target merchant shipping in the Red Sea region, and the U.S. has been hinting at its response to a drone assault that killed American troops in Jordan. Meanwhile, fuel markets, which have been most impacted by the disruption in the Middle East, saw a dramatic dropoff in prices after news of a potential ceasefire. Gasoil futures fell more than 4 per cent on Friday, while diesel fell to $2.66 a gallon, the lowest since mid-January. Prices: WTI for March delivery slipped 2.1 per cent to settle at $72.28 a barrel in New York. Brent for April settlement slid 1.7 per cent to $77.33 a barrel.
WTI, Brent Slide 2% on USD, Hope for a Ceasefire in Gaza -- New York Mercantile Exchange oil futures and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange lost 2% in value during Friday's session, with all petroleum contracts registering weekly losses amid a one-two punch of a stronger U.S. dollar following a blowout employment report for January showing much stronger-than-expected job growth, and hope for a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, with both sides reportedly closing in on a tentative deal to exchange hostages. Oil traders continued to unwind a geopolitical risk premium tied to the conflict in the Middle East after Qatari officials, who mediated talks between Hamas and Israel, said both sides have given initial approval for a ceasefire agreement. "We tried to blend things together to come up with some sort of reasonable ground that brings everybody together," said Qatar's prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani at Washington's Atlantic Council think tank on Monday. While no oil supplies have been disrupted since the outbreak of the war on Oct. 7, the risk of hostilities spilling over into the broader Middle East region kept oil traders on edge. The fear is highlighted by actions by Iranian-backed militias in the Middle East, notably the Houthis in Yemen, who have consistently attacked commercial vessels in the Red Sea region since October, forcing some oil tankers to undertake costly rerouting around Africa's Cape of Good Hope, spiking freight rates. In financial markets, the U.S. dollar spiked 0.88% against a basket of foreign currencies to finish the volatile week at a 1-1/2 month high 103.781, as investors reacted to job growth of 353,000 by the U.S. economy in January, far exceeding expectations for a 170,000 gain. The national unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7% for the third consecutive month. The January employment report typically sees large seasonal adjustments for prior months which are designed to smooth out monthly volatility, with a consensus calling for a sizable downward revision for both November and December. Therefore, it was quite a surprise for markets when the Bureau of Labor Statistics instead revised jobs gains higher for both November and December by a combined 126,000. BLS also reported average hourly earnings in January rose 19 cents or 0.6% to $34.55, lifting annualized wage growth to 4.5% at the start of 2024. January's employment report offered further testament to the strength of the U.S. economy, with the International Monetary Fund earlier this week revising higher its forecast for U.S. gross domestic product for 2024 by 0.6% from its October outlook to 2.1%. However, strong job growth and higher wages add to inflationary pressures, complicating the Federal Reserve's path to lowering interest rates. The Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday left the federal funds rate unchanged in a 5% by 5.25% target range and signaled it would not be rushed into lowering rates unless either inflation starts cooling more rapidly or the labor market starts shedding jobs. In reaction to the data, investors all but priced out the likelihood for the FOMC to cut the federal funds rate in March, with odds for a May rate cut having also fallen sharply. "I think we could still see rate cuts certainly this year but how many and how quickly those start I think today's report is a reminder not to get ahead of ourselves on that," said Esther George, the former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas, adding that "I'd be resetting my own expectations around how soon rate cuts should come and say the economy has held up pretty well." At settlement, West Texas Intermediate futures for March delivery dropped back $1.54 to $72.28 bbl, while international crude benchmark Brent April futures declined $1.37 bbl to $77.33 bbl. NYMEX March RBOB futures fell $0.0473 to $2.1475 gallon, while the March ULSD contract eroded $0.0529 to $2.66 gallon.
Oil posts weekly losses as US data dents hopes for near-term rate cuts (Reuters) - Oil prices fell by about 2% on Friday and posted weekly losses after U.S. jobs data shrank the odds of imminent interest rate cuts in the world's largest economy, which could dampen crude demand. Faltering growth in China and the possibility of some easing of tensions in the Middle East also reduced prices. Brent crude futures settled at $77.33 a barrel, shedding $1.37, or 1.7%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled at $72.28 a barrel, falling $1.54, or 2%. Both benchmarks lost roughly 7% on the week. High interest rates, which tend to dampen economic growth and oil demand, in major economies like the United States and the euro zone appear to be here to stay in the near term. Data on Friday showed U.S. employers added far more jobs in January than expected, reducing the chances of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. The dollar jumped against all major currencies as a result. Also keeping oil prices lower was an outage at BP's 435,000 barrel-per-day oil refinery in Whiting, Indiana, following a power loss that disrupted operations on Thursday, said Bob Yawger of Mizuho. Power at the refinery had been restored by midday on Friday, but sources said BP had not yet set a date for restarting the plant. "You end up with barrels with no place to go that could be shoved into storage," Energy services firm Baker Hughes, opens new tab said the U.S. oil rig count, an early indicator of future supply, held steady at 499 this week. Money managers raised their combined futures and options oil position in New York and London by 18,082 contracts to 117,226 in the week to Jan. 30, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission said. Across the Atlantic, a European Central Bank policymaker also suggested it was too early to cut interest rates in the euro zone. Concern over China's economic recovery persisted, with the International Monetary Fund forecasting that the country's economic growth would slow to 4.6% in 2024 and decline further in the medium term to about 3.5% in 2028. The weekly loss for oil prices was already in motion after unsubstantiated reports of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas caused prices to settle more than 2% lower on Thursday. Mediators are awaiting a response from Hamas to a proposal drafted last week with Israeli and U.S. spy chiefs and passed on by Egypt and Qatar for the war's first extended ceasefire.A pause could ease political risk looming over Gulf and Red Sea shipping lanes, which are key for global energy flows.On Thursday, sources said the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, together known as OPEC+, had kept its output policy unchanged. The group will decide in March whether to extend the voluntary oil production cuts that are in place for the first quarter, the sources said.OPEC+ has output cuts of 2.2 million bpd in place for the first quarter, as announced in November.
Chevron stops oil exports via the Red Sea - US oil giant Chevron is sending cargoes of Kazakhstan’s Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) Blend oil to Asia via Africa’s Cape of Good Hope rather than through the Red Sea to avoid the risk of disruption by Yemen’s Houthis. The Iranian-linked Houthis have intensified attacks on US shipping despite airstrikes by the US and UK on the group in Yemen, prompting vessels to avoid the volatile Red Sea and Suez Canal, the shortest sea route between Europe and Asia. The CPC Blend crude is usually initially loaded at the Russian Black Sea terminal of Yuzhnaya Ozereevka near Novorossisk, before being shipped out of the Black Sea, into the Mediterranean and then towards Asia through the Suez Canal. The vessels will now head west through the Mediterranean and then around the west flank of Africa towards the south, a far longer voyage that will drive up shipping costs.In reality, most of the CPC Blend crude is from Kazakhstan, but some is from Russian companies, industry sources told Reuters. While Chevron cargoes are avoiding the route, the Russian-sourced CPC Blend will still travel via the Red Sea. Since the outbreak of the Red Sea skirmishes, CPC Blend supplies to Asia have more than halved from 1.2 million tonnes (t) in December to 550,000t in January.
Russia’s 14 oil tankers stuck in South Korean port due to US sanctions- : Several tankers loaded with 10 million barrels of Russia's Sokol grade crude oil are stranded oí the coast of South Korea, unsold due to US sanctions and payment issues, as reported by two traders and shipping data. More than a dozen vessels, including 11 Aframax vessels and three very large crude carriers (VLCCs), are currently stuck around South Korea's port of Yosu, representing a signiðcant challenge for Moscow and causing a disruption to Russian oil exports. The volumes, equivalent to 1.3 million metric tons, account for over a month's production of the Sakhalin-1 project, a former ñagship venture of US major Exxon Mobil. Exxon Mobil exited Russia in 2022 after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, impacting production levels at Sakhalin-1. Advertisement Sakhalin-1, initially established under a production sharing agreement, saw a decline in output following Exxon Mobil's departure, and the project has not fully recovered since then. The challenges in selling Sokol grade oil are notable disruptions to Russian oil exports, posing a signiðcant issue for Moscow in the face of Western sanctions. Last year, the United States imposed sanctions on various vessels and companies involved in transporting Sokol. The stranded vessels near South Korea are facing diîculties in ðnding buyers due to the impact of these sanctions. Washington has underlined that its sanctions aim to reduce revenues for President Vladimir Putin and the Russian military in Ukraine without disrupting global energy markets. The stored oil volumes on the stranded tankers represent 45 days of production from Sakhalin-1, which typically produces around 220,000 barrels per day (bpd). Some very large crude carriers (VLCCs), including La Balena, Nireta, and Nellis, are acting as ñoating storage for the Russian Sokol oil grade. Payment problems have also led to delays in Sokol oil shipments to the Indian Oil Corp (IOC), forcing India's largest reðner to tap into inventories and purchase additional oil from the Middle East. The disagreement over the currency used for payment is causing further complications in the oil trade between Russia and India. Neither IOC nor Rosneft, the Russian oil major, responded to Reuters requests for comments on the situation.
Ukraine's strikes hurt Putin's attempts to reassure Russians -- The wail of air raid sirens is commonplace in Belgorod, a Russian border city whose residents are on edge following a Ukrainian missile attack on a New Year’s holiday weekend that left dozens of people dead and injured.A spectacular explosion rocked a huge fuel export terminal on the Baltic Sea southwest of St. Petersburg this month from a Ukrainian drone, forcing the energy company Novatek to suspend operations for several days.Last week, an apparent drone attack in the Black Sea port of Tuapse in the southern Krasnodar region hit one of Russia’s largest refineries and ignited a fire, while another big refinery in the Volga River city of Yaroslavl, north of Moscow came under attack early Monday, but officials said there was no damage.There also have been strikes on a gunpowder factory in the Tambov region and arms producers and military facilities in the Bryansk, Smolensk and Tula regions.Attacks like these are dealing a heavy blow to President Vladimir Putin’s attempts to reassure Russians that life in the country is largely untouched by the nearly 2-year-old war.“Ukraine has increased its capacity to strike back against Russia,” Michael Kofman, a military expert with the Carnegie Endowment, said in a recent podcast.“You see increased Ukrainian attacks against Russian critical infrastructure, retaliatory attacks against cities like Belgorod and greater strikes against Russian military base in Crimea,” he said.
The Tower-22 Strike in Jordan Triggers US, Israel Into All-Front War – The Arabs and Iran Are Ready, the Russians Too - The Hamas offensive of October 7 caught the Israel Defence Forces asleep at their posts. This weekend’s drone strike against Tower-22, a US troop base in northeastern Jordan, caught the US Army troops asleep. The response, according to President Joseph Biden’s statement, is that “we will hold all those responsible to account at a time and in a manner our choosing….we know it was carried out by radical Iran-backed militant groups operating in Syria and Iraq.” General Lloyd Austin, the US Secretary of Defense, repeated: “Iran-backed militias are responsible for these continued attacks on U.S. forces, and we will respond at a time and place of our choosing.” The details of the Tower-22 attack, and Iran’s reinforcement at the Strait of Hormuz, reveal that the Arabs and the Iranians are ready and waiting. The Russians too. The drone attack on the US troop base known as Tower-22, in the northeastern corner of Jordan, caught the US forces, reportedly reservists, asleep. The base reportedly holds 350 Army and Air Force personnel. At least three have been confirmed killed; eight have been evacuated with life threatening injuries, according to US Central Command (CENTCOM); about three dozen have beencounted as wounded. The operational success of the strike for the attackers is strategic. Tower-22 is a logistics, supply, and rear guard post for the Al-Tanf base which US troops are operating thirty kilometres north across the border in Syria. The attack demonstrates that both Tower-22 and Al-Tanf, Jordan and Syria, are newly vulnerable to weapons which the US forces have failed to detect and neutralize. Just as significantly, the massive US airbase called Muwaffaq Salti, 230 kilometres west across Jordan, is also vulnerable now. For analysis of how these bases, and other anti-Palestinian targets in Jordan, are connected and targeted by the Axis of Resistance, read this from October. Biden’s statement said only “we are still gathering the facts of this attack”.Reporters of the New York Times were told by their official briefers that “the drone strike in Jordan on Sunday demonstrated that the Iran-backed militias — whether in Iran or Syria, or the Houthis in Yemen — remained capable of inflicting serious consequences on American troops despite the U.S. military’s efforts to weaken them and avoid tumbling into a wider conflict, possibly with Iran itself.”The newspaper added a warning against escalation from the Joint Chiefs of Staff at the Pentagon: “ ‘We don’t want to go down a path of greater escalation that drives to a much broader conflict within the region,’ Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said on Sunday. Asked in a pre-recorded session on ABC News’s This Week whether he thought Iran wanted war with the United States, General Brown, echoing assessments from the U.S. intelligence agencies, said, ‘No, I don’t think so.’ ”The official line in Washington on Sunday evening, according to its New York platform, is that “the Americans killed on Sunday were the first known fatalities from hostile fire in the region since the Oct. 7 attacks by Hamas…It was unclear on Sunday why air defences at the outpost failed to intercept the drone, which former military commanders said appeared to be the first known assault on the location since attacks on U.S. forces began soon after the Oct. 7 incursion.”
US to Deploy Nukes in the UK for the First Time in 15 Years - The US will deploy nuclear weapons to the UK for the first time in 15 years in a move Russia will view as a provocation, The Telegraph reported, citing Pentagon documents.Pentagon procurement contracts show that the US is planning to station B61-12 nuclear warheads at RAF Lakenheath, a base in Suffolk, England. The US pulled its nuclear weapons out of the UK in 2008, and its decision to redeploy them demonstrates the low state of US-Russia relations.According to The Telegraph, Russia said a US deployment of nukes to the UK would be an “escalation” that would require “compensating counter-measures.”The US already has nukes stationed in Germany, Belgium, Italy, Turkey, and the Netherlands as part of NATO’s nuclear sharing program. Last year, Russia announced it was deploying nuclear weapons to Belarus amid tensions over the proxy war in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin pointed to NATO’s nuclear sharing program to justify his decision.The B61 is the US’s primary nuclear gravity bomb, and the B61-12 is its newest iteration. It’s considered a tactical nuclear weapon, which have a lower yield than strategic warheads. But the B61-12 has a maximum yield of 50 kilotons, more than three times as powerful as the bomb the US dropped on Hiroshima, Japan.The UK has a nuclear arsenal of its own and announced in 2021 that it was expanding, raising questions about Britain’s commitment to the Non-Proliferation Treaty. The UK said it was raising the ceiling of its nuclear warhead stockpile from 180 to 240 and that it would no longer publish information about the number of warheads it maintains in an operational status.
Qatar says Gaza truce proposal to be sent to Hamas as war rages on - A framework to halt the Gaza fighting and for hostage releases is to be relayed to Hamas, mediator Qatar said Monday, as a bitter row flared around the UN aid agency for Palestinians. While deadly fighting again rocked Gaza, fears mounted of a widening regional conflict after Israel's top ally Washington vowed to respond to an attack that killed three US troops in Jordan. Israeli bombing of the Gaza Strip killed 215 more people within 24 hours, including 20 members of one family, said the health ministry in the Hamas-run Palestinian territory. Ground forces backed by tanks have focused on the main southern city of Khan Yunis, the hometown of Hamas's Gaza leader Yahya Sinwar. Sinwar's office, military sites and "a significant rocket manufacturing facility" were raided by troops, the army said. Since the war began, the Israeli military "eliminated over 2,000 terrorists above and below ground" in the Khan Yunis area, spokesman Daniel Hagari said Monday, without offering evidence. With Gazans facing dire humanitarian conditions after nearly four months of war, 20 international aid organisations said they were "outraged" at the suspension of funding to the UN agency for Palestinian refugees, UNRWA. At least 12 countries -- including top donors the United States and Germany -- have halted funds over Israeli claims that some UNRWA staff were involved in Hamas's October 7 attack that sparked the fighting. A UNRWA source, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the issue's sensitivity, told AFP it would be "a major disaster" if donors insist on stopping their support. In the latest efforts to broker a new truce, CIA chief William Burns met top Israeli, Egyptian and Qatari officials in Paris on Sunday. Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani confirmed that the framework -- which he said might lead to a permanent ceasefire -- includes a phased truce that would see women and children hostages released first, with aid also entering besieged Gaza. A senior Hamas official, Taher al-Nunu, said it wanted a "complete and comprehensive ceasefire, not a temporary truce", although it was not immediately clear if Hamas officials had received the text of the Qatari proposal. Once the fighting stopped, Nunu told AFP, "the rest of the details can be discussed", including hostage releases. Israel's relentless military offensive has killed at least 26,637 people in Gaza, most of them women and children, according to the territory's health ministry. Hundreds of thousands have been displaced in Gaza and rely on scarce aid, but there are fears of further shortages because of the rift between Israel and UNRWA. The European Union and other donors have urged an investigation into the allegations against UNRWA staff. In the southern Gaza city of Rafah, where 1.5 million displaced people have taken refuge, some told AFP the UN support was a lifeline. "We live on aid from UNRWA," said Sabah Musabih, 50. "If it stopped, we would die of hunger."
Israel Says 'Significant Gaps' Remain After Hostage Deal Talks - The office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said “significant gaps” remain following talks on a potential hostage deal that were attended by officials from the US, Israel, Qatar, and Egypt.“There are still significant gaps in which the parties will continue to discuss this week in additional mutual meetings,” Netanyahu said.The talks were held in Paris and were attended by CIA Director William Burns, Israeli Mossad chief David Barnea, Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, and Egypt’s intelligence chief Abbas Kamel. Ahead of the meeting, The New York Times reported that negotiators were moving closer to a deal that would see a two-month ceasefire in exchange for the release of the remaining Israeli hostages in Gaza.The Times report said other details need to be worked out, including the number of Palestinian prisoners who will be released in exchange for the Israelis. During the previous hostage deal that resulted in a seven-day pause, over 100 Israelis and over 200 Palestinians were freed.Hamas expects to get more Palestinians freed in exchange for releasing Israeli soldiers. The Times report said in the first 30 days of the potential deal, Hamas would release women, elderly, and wounded hostages. Over the next 30-day period, the Palestinian group would release Israeli men and soldiers.Hamas might not be willing to release all of the remaining Israeli hostages since it would be the end of what little leverage they have. Hamas previously offered to free them in exchange for a permanent ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, but Netanyahu strongly rejected the proposal.
Israeli Airstrikes Hit Damascus, Several Reported Killed - Israeli airstrikes hit targets south of the Syrian capital of Damascus on Monday, killing and injuring a number of people, Syria’s SANA news agency reported.Both Syria and Iran denied reports that said the strikes killed Iranian nationals or Iranian military advisors. Just over a week ago, Israeli airstrikes on a residential building in Damascus killed five members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).“In today’s attack of the Zionist regime fighter jets on Damascus, no Iranian advisory center in Syria was targeted,” Iran’s ambassador to Syria, Hossein Akbari, said of the Monday strikes. “None of the Iranian nationals or military advisers have been martyred.”Iran’s PressTV reported that at least two civilians were killed by the Israeli airstrikes. The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said seven people were killed, including one Syrian who was described as an “escort” for a member of the IRGC. But the reports are not confirmed.Israel has bombed Syria with impunity for years and has significantly stepped up its strikes on the country since October 7. The strikes are part of what appears to be a strategy by Israel to provoke a wider war in the region that would get the US directly involved.
Israel Plans to Attack Lebanon Because Israel Is Not Winning Against Hamas – by Yves Smith - Israel is not winning against Hamas. So it plans to take on a much tougher opponent, Hezbollah, which will be the result of executing on its plan to enter and occupy Lebanon up to the Litani River. This is not the way clear-thinking people operate.But as Alastair Crooke explains (more on this soon), the Israelis recognize that they are no longer feared militarily in their ‘hood. Maintaining that fear is fundamental to Israeli citizen’s sense of security. Proof comes via Israel having had to pull its citizens out of the border to Gaza and Lebanon and not having been able to turn things around so they can return. Although I cannot prove a negative, Crooke and some Twitterati maintain that this effective loss of territory very much puts Israel on the back foot, since Israel historically has used buffer zones as an interim step in increasing the area under its control, and understands the risks when that process goes the other way. Despite the assumption by many military experts at the start of the Israel campaign in Gaza, that the IDF would prevail given its much greater resources and ease of resupply, here we are, over 100 days in, and Israel is not all that much closer to victory, save in exterminating the Palestinian population in Gaza, as opposed to eliminating or at least crippling Hamas. Israel has not killed any of the leadership of Hamas’ military wing. Israel has not rescued any hostages. It is not clear how many Hamas fighters Israel has killed, but its claim of 10,000 versus the 27,000 dead reported in Gaza seems unreasonably high, particularly given admissions that schemes like flooding the tunnel system have not worked very well. Hamas has been retaking Northern Gaza after Israel claimed to have secured it. And on top of that, as an article in today’s Links pointed out, Israel is having to husband its artillery use in Gaza in light of global shortages. So they plan to take on Hezbollah with less than a full magazine?There are signs of dissent within Israel over where to go in the war. More and more family members of hostages have been getting sympathetic coverage in the press and support from some officials for their demand that Israel negotiate with Hamas now to get the hostages back. A new story in Christian Science Monitor recounts a key rupture: The cracks in what had been near universal public unity supporting Israel’s war aims in the conflict’s first few months have even reached the five-person wartime Cabinet tasked with prosecuting the campaign against Hamas.In a bombshell television interview on Israel’s Channel 12 this month, Gadi Eisenkot, a centrist politician and former military chief who joined Mr. Netanyahu’s wartime coalition in October, said the welfare of the hostages had to take precedence.The government, he added, needed to stop “selling fantasies” to the public that their release would be achieved through force alone. And the dissent continues:
Israel seeks destruction of Palestinian refugee agency and establishment of Jewish settlements in Gaza - Israel responded to the International Court of Justice’s (ICJ) ruling last Friday, requesting it to “take all measures within its power” to avoid acts of genocide, by redoubling its efforts to starve the Palestinians and planning for the repopulation of Gaza with Jewish settlements. The same day that the ICJ’s preliminary findings were issued, the United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA) said that Israel had provided the organisation with information alleging that 12 of its employees had taken part in the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led incursion and participated in massacres. One was accused of kidnapping a woman, another of handing out ammunition and a third of taking part in the massacre at a kibbutz where 97 people died. Seven were said to be teachers at UNRWA schools and two worked at the schools in other capacities. Israel initially said that its “information” on the 12 was the result of its interrogation, i.e. torture, of captured “militants”. It then changed its story, stating that intelligence services had monitored their cell phones. The move was a carefully planned counterblast to the ICJ. Israel had in fact handed its information to UNRWA Commissioner General Philippe Lazzarini last Sunday, January 21. He flew to New York for discussions with UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres before informing donors midweek and then making his announcement on Friday just as the ICJ was delivering its verdict. UNRWA announced it would fire the employees in question and refer them for criminal investigation. Nine were fired and two are reported dead. In sharp contrast to the months of polite appeals for Israel to abide by international law while it has murdered 30,000 Palestinians and reduced Gaza to rubble, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken immediately suspended funds to UNRWA. The was followed in quick succession by the UK, Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Romania, Finland, Canada, Australia and Switzerland. The European Union called on UNRWA to investigate all its staff to “confirm that they did not participate in the attacks.” Israel’s accusations and attempts to permanently delegitimise UNRWA have escalated since then. The Wall Street Journal and the Jerusalem Post reported that Israel had presented American officials with intelligence estimates that around 1,200 of the 12,000 people UNRWA employs in Gaza (other estimates of UNRWA’s employees range up to 30,000) “have links to Hamas or Palestinian Islamic Jihad, enough to warrant the suspension of funding to UNRWA. And about half have close relatives who belong to the Islamist militant groups.” A senior Israeli government official commented, “UNRWA’s problem is not just ‘a few bad apples’ involved in the October 7th massacre… The institution as a whole is a haven for Hamas radical ideology.” This is the answer of Israel and its backers to the meaningless appeal by the ICJ for it to “take immediate and effective measures immediately to enable the provision of urgently needed basic services and humanitarian assistance”.UNRWA handles most of the humanitarian aid to 2 million displaced people in Gaza, part of its providing of services to six million men, women and children in 58 refugee camps spread over Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, the West Bank and East Jerusalem and Gaza. Lazzarini pleaded, “I am shocked such decisions are taken based on alleged behaviour of a few individuals and as the war continues, needs are deepening and famine looms.” A US statement accepted that “UNRWA plays a critical role in providing lifesaving assistance to Palestinians, including essential food, medicine, shelter, and other vital humanitarian support,” and that “Their work has saved lives.” This only confirms that the imperialist powers are working with Israel to starve the Palestinians, kill thousands more and force them into exile.
Document spells out allegations against UNRWA workers Israel says participated in Hamas attack - (AP) — An Israeli document obtained Monday spelled out allegations against a dozen U.N. employees the country says took part in Hamas’ Oct. 7 assault — claiming seven stormed into Israeli territory, including one who participated in a kidnapping and another who helped to steal a soldier’s body. The allegations against staffers with the U.N. agency for Palestinian refugees prompted the United States and several other countries to freeze funds vital for the body, which is a lifeline for desperate Palestinians in Gaza. The White House indicated that funding could be restored depending on the agency’s investigation and subsequent actions. The U.N. condemned “the abhorrent alleged acts” and fired nine of the accused workers, who include teachers and a social worker. Two are reportedly dead, and the last is still being identified. The accusations come after years of tensions between Israel and the agency known as UNRWA over its work in Gaza, where it employs roughly 13,000 people. UNRWA is the biggest aid provider in Gaza, where Israel’s war against Hamas has displaced the vast majority of the population within the besieged territory and plunged it into a humanitarian catastrophe. U.N. officials say a quarter of the population is starving. With the majority of its budget in doubt, and because UNRWA spends contributions as they come in throughout the year, the agency says it will be forced to halt operations within weeks if funding isn’t restored.The threat to the U.N. agency came as Israel said cease-fire talks held Sunday were constructive but that “significant gaps” remained in any potential agreement. The talks are meant to bring about some respite to war-torn Gaza and secure the release of more than 100 hostages still held in the territory.Hamas spokesman Osama Hamdan told reporters in Beirut that discussions are continuing but that the group is still insisting on a more permanent cease-fire before releasing any more hostages.
Palestinians in Gaza see UNRWA funding cuts as 'death sentence' -- Palestinian mother Mazouza Hassan stood aghast at the potential threats to the work of the U.N. agency that handles most aid in Gaza after some Western states suspended funding to it over allegations employees took part in the Hamas attack on Israel. "We are thrown into tents and our children need to be vaccinated and pregnant women need to give birth ... Where will these people go?" said Hassan, one of the 85% of Gaza residents made homeless by Israel's military campaign in Gaza. The war has plunged Gaza into a humanitarian catastrophe, leaving its shelled-out population at risk from famine and disease with the medical system in collapse, schools turned into shelters and much of the population living in tents. For many of Gaza's 2.3 million Palestinians, the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) was already critically important even before the latest Israel-Hamas war began on Oct. 7. UNRWA ran Gaza's schools, primary healthcare clinics and other social services. As the main conduit for aid in the tiny, crowded enclave it now stands to many Palestinians as a last barrier between them and total disaster. An UNRWA spokesperson said the agency would not be able to continue such operations after February if funding were not resumed. More than 10 countries including major donor the United States have suspended funding. "UNRWA is our future and our life from the beginning until today. Who will support us?" Hassan said, standing near her children in Rafah at the southern end of the Gaza Strip. The agency employs about 13,000 people in Gaza, part of a total workforce of about 30,000 working with Palestinian refugees around the Middle East. Israel has alleged that 13 of UNRWA's Gaza employees took part in the surprise Hamas incursion into Israel that killed more than 1,200 people and triggered the conflict. A dossier Israel has produced says a total of 190 UNRWA staff have also been militants with Hamas or Islamic Jihad. The agency has said it has fired some staffers and is investigating Israel's allegations. Israel's assault on Gaza since Oct. 7 has killed at least 26,600 people, say health authorities in the Hamas-run enclave, prompting a South African charge of genocide, denied by Israel, at the International Court of Justice.
2 Qatari aircraft carrying aid for Palestinians in Gaza heads to Egypt's El Arish -Two Qatar Armed Forces aircraft arrived Monday in the city of El Arish in the sisterly Arab Republic of Egypt, carrying 41 tons of aid consisting of medical supplies, provided by the State of Qatar, bringing the total number of aircraft sent to 72, carrying a total of 2,144 tons of aid. The aid is part of the State of Qatar's full support to the brotherly Palestinian people currently subjected to difficult humanitarian conditions.
Israel Ministers Call for Ethnic Cleansing of Gaza at Settler Conference - Members of the Israeli government—including National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich—attended a far-right conference on Sunday calling for the "resettlement" of Gaza and increased Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank. The conference, at which both Ben-Gvir and Smotrich repeated calls for the removal of Palestinians from Gaza, came days after the International Court of Justice ordered Israel to "take all measures within its power" to prevent its military from committing genocide in Gaza."The colonial meeting in Jerusalem poses a blatant challenge to the International Court of Justice decision, accompanied by public incitement to forcibly displace Palestinians," the Palestinian Foreign Ministry wrote on social media."These are the people who are making policy in Israel, and these are the people who were calling for the ethnic cleansing of Gaza."Sunday's conference, titled "Conference for the Victory of Israel—Settlement Brings Security: Returning to the Gaza Strip and Northern Samaria," was organized by the right-wing Nahala organization, according to Haaretz and Al Jazeera. The group argues for an expansion of Jewish settlements in the West Bank, even though these settlements are illegal under international law, as Reuters explained.Israel also held settlements in Gaza for 38 years before withdrawing them in 2005. At Sunday's conference, Smotrich said that settlers who had left Gaza as children had returned as soldiers during Israel's ongoing bombardment and invasion of the enclave."We knew what that would bring and we tried to prevent it," Smotrich said of the 2005 withdrawal. "Without settlements, there is no security."Ben Gvir also said that he and others had warned against leaving Gaza."If we don't want another October 7, we need to return home and control the land," he said, as Reuters reported further. He also called for Israel to "encourage emigration" of Palestinians out of Gaza. Both Smotrich and Ben Gvir have made similar statements in the past, with Smotrich saying in December, "What needs to be done in the Gaza Strip is to encourage emigration," as Al Jazeera reported at the time.
Notes From The Edge Of The Narrative Matrix: Everything Israel Wants To Destroy Is Hamas by Caitlin Johnstone - UNRWA is Hamas. The hospitals are Hamas. The ambulances are Hamas. The journalists are Hamas. The schools are Hamas. South Africa is Hamas. People tweeting unfavorable things about Israel are Hamas. Basically everyone Israel and its supporters want killed is Hamas.Defunding UNRWA over a handful of alleged Hamas members who don’t even work there anymore makes no sense from a humanitarian perspective or a military perspective, but it makes a ton of sense from a genocidal perspective. Cutting off aid to the most aid-dependent population on earth would be a psychopathically monstrous act all by itself, even without having caused their extreme needfulness in the first place by backing a genocidal bombing campaign on a giant concentration camp full of children.The Pentagon has admitted that it has no evidence that Iran was behind the attack on a US base on the Jordan-Syria border which killed three American troops. The one and only reason the US government and its stenographers in the western press mentioned the word “Iran” a zillion times after that attack was to administer propaganda to manufacture public hostility toward a government long targeted for regime change by the US empire.Don’t talk to me about October 7. Don’t talk to me about hostages. I don’t care. I haven’t cared for months. Many, many times more Gazans are dying and suffering than the number of Israelis who died and are suffering. That means the death and suffering of Palestinians is much more urgent and matters much more than the death and suffering of Israelis. The only way to disagree with this is to believe Israeli lives are worth much, much more than Palestinian lives.The longer the mass atrocity in Gaza goes on for the less tragic and worthy of sympathy October 7 becomes. It’s already been diminished to a fraction of the significance it once had, and it’s getting smaller and smaller as this nightmare stretches on. This is not the fault of people like me, it is the fault of the people conducting this genocide. You don’t get to murder tens of thousands of people and then demand everyone weep over you losing a thousand. That’s not a thing.
Global ammunition shortage forces Israel to limit bombings -- A surge in ammunition usage during the wars in Gaza and Ukraine has triggered an unprecedented global shortage across all types of ammunition. And while the IDF avoids public discussion of the issue, Major General Eliezer Toledano acknowledged last month a reduction in air attacks, underscoring the imperative to "manage the economy of armaments" in anticipation of a protracted war. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu echoed these concerns, articulating the need for U.S. support with a succinct plea: "We need three things from the U.S.: armaments, armaments, armaments." In a recent press conference, Netanyahu declared Israel's intent to diminish reliance on global sources, a challenging objective that has raised skepticism about its feasibility.Despite the defense establishment's limited public discourse on the matter, it is actively addressing the ammunition shortage. Last week, Defense Ministry Director General Eyal Zamir finalized a substantial deal with the U.S. government, securing hundreds of millions of dollars for the supply of aerial ammunition. Over 25,000 tons of weapons have been delivered to Israel via approximately 280 aircraft and 40 ships from the U.S. since the onset of the conflict. Simultaneously, the Israeli defense industry is working diligently to replenish the IDF's stocks.Recent reports from Calcalist reveal that Israeli companies postponed supplying weapons exceeding $1.5 billion to global customers, redirecting resources to meet the IDF's combat requirements. In the last three months alone, the Defense Ministry has ordered weaponry worth more than 10 billion shekels ($2.7 million) from these companies. Importantly, the shortage does not result from budget constraints; rather, it stems from a scarcity of supply. The Treasury does not impose restrictions on the IDF's ability to purchase any type of ammunition. The heightened demand for armaments is attributed to the IDF's extensive bombing campaigns in Gaza since the war's inception. The military recently announced the targeting of 30,000 sites in Gaza. A security source informed Calcalist that the IDF's firing rate in the ongoing conflict mirrors that of a "superpower," comparable only to the demonstrated capabilities of the U.S. Foreign media extensively covers the Gaza campaign, labeling it one of the most intensive in history and drawing comparisons to the scale of bombings witnessed in Germany during World War II.
Hamas Reasserting Control Over Areas of Northern Gaza - Hamas militants have returned to northern Gaza and are mobilizing against Israeli forces and establishing a system of governance, The Guardian reported Tuesday, citing Israeli officials, Gaza residents, and aid officials.“We are hearing more, unfortunately, of the recovery of [an] insurgency in both central and northern Gaza … We’re hearing more and more that Hamas are doing policing in northern Gaza and governing trade, and that is a very bad outcome,” said Eyal Hulata, a former Israeli national security advisor.The Israeli military recently withdrew from some areas of the northern Gaza Strip and claimed it had taken out Hamas’s military structure in the area, saying only “pockets of resistance were left.” But the re-emergence of organized Hamas members in the area highlights the Palestinian group’s resilience and the unrealistic nature of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s goal of “eradicating” Hamas.The Guardian quoted Michael Milstein of the Institute for National Security Studies, an Israel-based think tank, who said Hamas had survived Israel’s brutal bombing campaign and ground operation in the north. “Hamas control these areas. There is no chaos or vacuum because it is the workers of Gaza municipality or civil rescue defense forces, who are effectively part of Hamas, who are enforcing public order. Hamas still exists. Hamas has survived,” he said.
IDF Troops Occupy, Burn Gaza Homes in Likely War Crimes -- Israeli troops invading the Gaza Strip are occupying and then burning Palestinian homes there, apparent war crimes that follow literally incendiary calls by some Israeli leaders to "burn Gaza"—actions and words under consideration in the South African-led genocide case before the International Court of Justice.The Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported Wednesday that IDF soldiers have burned hundreds of Gaza homes and everything in them, on direct orders of their commanders. Some Israeli troops have posted videos on social media showing them taking part in home burnings and describing their actions as revenge for fellow soldiers' deaths or the October 7 Hamas-led attacks on Israel. Israeli forces have also occupied homes, according to the newspaper. In one case, soldiers spared a home so that other IDF troops could use it, leaving a note reading, "We are not burning the house so you can enjoy it, and when you leave—you'll know what to do."According to Haaretz:Until last month, the army's combat engineering corps mostly used mines and explosives, and in some cases heavy machinery such as D9 bulldozers, to demolish structures. Setting fire to homes belonging to noncombatant civilians, for the mere purpose of punishment, is forbidden under international law.The U.S. has recently appealed to Israel, demanding that its forces stop destroying public buildings such as schools and clinics in Gaza, claiming that continuing to do so would harm the everyday life of Gazans who seek to return to their homes after the war.An analysis reviewed by the BBC found that at least half of all buildings in Gaza—between 144,000-175,000 structures—have been destroyed or damaged by Israeli forces since October 7. This has been a major factor in the displacement of what the United Nations says is more than 90% of Gaza's 2.3 million people, and has prompted debate by experts over whether Israel is committing domicide, or the systemic destruction of homes with the objective of rendering Gaza uninhabitable.Previous reports have documented Israeli troops burning humanitarian aid supplies including food meant for starving Gazans, vandalizing Palestinian businesses, and ransacking homes.IDF troops have also burned homes in the illegally occupied West Bank, where settlers from expanding apartheid colonies have also attacked Palestinian people and property. For decades, Israel's policy of destroying the homes of relatives of Palestinian resistance fighters has been condemned as illegal collective punishment.Several Israeli leaders including Deputy Knesset Speaker Nissim Vaturi, a member of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party, have called for the destruction, burning, and even nuclear annihilationof Gaza. Some of their statements have been entered as evidence in the South African-led genocide case against Israel at the ICJ in The Hague.According to Palestinian officials and international humanitarian groups, Israeli forces have killed, wounded, or left missing more than 100,000 Palestinians in Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem since October 7.
Pediatrician Details 'Cataclysmic' Reality for Gaza Kids Under Israel Assault -- In what one historian called "an understated plea for the world to not look away," a pediatrician who has provided care across the globe and in numerous war zones described in an interview with The New Yorker on Tuesday how over two weeks working in a hospital in Gaza recently, she saw firsthand how Israel's U.S.-backed assault on the blockaded enclave has created conditions unlike anything she has witnessed elsewhere.Dr. Seema Jilani, a senior technical adviser at the International Rescue Committee, told journalist Isaac Chotiner about the life-and-death decisions doctors in Gaza are being forced to make on a daily basis, even as they try to keep their own families safe from Israel's relentless air and ground attacks.Jilani arrived in central Gaza for a two-week assignment around Christmas Day and immediately began working alongside Palestinian doctors at Al-Aqsa Hospital in Deir al Balah, where she worked to save as many lives as she could as the facility faced a dwindling supply of medical equipment and medications including morphine—forcing them to rely on over-the-counter drugs like Motrin to provide pain relief to people with serious injuries and burns."Within the two weeks that I was there, I saw it go from a semi-functional hospital to a barely or nonfunctional hospital as a result of increasing violence in surrounding areas," Jilani told The New Yorker.The U.S.-born pediatrician, who has treated civilians in Iraq and Afghanistan previously, described a one-year-old boy who was among the first patients she treated at Al-Aqsa:His right arm and right leg had been blown off by a bomb, and flesh was still hanging off the foot. He had a bloodstained diaper, which remained, but there was no leg below. I treated the baby while he lay on the ground. There were no stretchers available because all the beds had already been taken, considering that many people were also trying to use the hospital as a shelter or safe space for their families. Next to him there was a man who was on his last breaths. He had been actively dying for the last twenty-four hours, and flies were already on him. All the while, a woman was brought in and was declared dead on arrival. This one-year-old had blood pouring into his chest cavity. He needed a chest tube so he wouldn't asphyxiate on his own blood. But there were neither chest tubes nor blood-pressure cuffs that were available in pediatric sizes. No morphine had been given in the chaos, and it wasn't even available. This patient in America would've immediately gone to the O.R., but instead the orthopedic surgeon bandaged the stumps up and said he couldn’t take him to the operating theater right now because there were more pressing emergencies. And I tried to imagine what was more pressing than a one-year-old with no hand and no legs who was choking on his own blood. So that, to me, was symbolic of the impossible choices inflicted on the doctors of Gaza, and how truly cataclysmic that situation is. Doctors and nurses in Gaza are trying to provide care in a state of "chaos," Jilani told the magazine, with patients arriving at the few remaining functional hospitals "on makeshift stretchers, if you're lucky, or by an ambulance that was overflowing with people, [or] via donkeys." Jilani's organization also posted a video of her speaking about her time in Gaza, where she saw one physician pitching in at the hospital after he had visited a friend who was there. "That's the level of devastation but the level of commitment that the Palestinian healthcare forces is having right now," said Jilani.
The Tower-22 Strike in Jordan Triggers US, Israel Into All-Front War – The Arabs and Iran Are Ready, the Russians Too - The Hamas offensive of October 7 caught the Israel Defence Forces asleep at their posts. This weekend’s drone strike against Tower-22, a US troop base in northeastern Jordan, caught the US Army troops asleep. The response, according to President Joseph Biden’s statement, is that “we will hold all those responsible to account at a time and in a manner our choosing….we know it was carried out by radical Iran-backed militant groups operating in Syria and Iraq.” General Lloyd Austin, the US Secretary of Defense, repeated: “Iran-backed militias are responsible for these continued attacks on U.S. forces, and we will respond at a time and place of our choosing.” The details of the Tower-22 attack, and Iran’s reinforcement at the Strait of Hormuz, reveal that the Arabs and the Iranians are ready and waiting. The Russians too. The drone attack on the US troop base known as Tower-22, in the northeastern corner of Jordan, caught the US forces, reportedly reservists, asleep. The base reportedly holds 350 Army and Air Force personnel. At least three have been confirmed killed; eight have been evacuated with life threatening injuries, according to US Central Command (CENTCOM); about three dozen have beencounted as wounded. The operational success of the strike for the attackers is strategic. Tower-22 is a logistics, supply, and rear guard post for the Al-Tanf base which US troops are operating thirty kilometres north across the border in Syria. The attack demonstrates that both Tower-22 and Al-Tanf, Jordan and Syria, are newly vulnerable to weapons which the US forces have failed to detect and neutralize. Just as significantly, the massive US airbase called Muwaffaq Salti, 230 kilometres west across Jordan, is also vulnerable now. For analysis of how these bases, and other anti-Palestinian targets in Jordan, are connected and targeted by the Axis of Resistance, read this from October. Biden’s statement said only “we are still gathering the facts of this attack”.Reporters of the New York Times were told by their official briefers that “the drone strike in Jordan on Sunday demonstrated that the Iran-backed militias — whether in Iran or Syria, or the Houthis in Yemen — remained capable of inflicting serious consequences on American troops despite the U.S. military’s efforts to weaken them and avoid tumbling into a wider conflict, possibly with Iran itself.”The newspaper added a warning against escalation from the Joint Chiefs of Staff at the Pentagon: “ ‘We don’t want to go down a path of greater escalation that drives to a much broader conflict within the region,’ Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said on Sunday. Asked in a pre-recorded session on ABC News’s This Week whether he thought Iran wanted war with the United States, General Brown, echoing assessments from the U.S. intelligence agencies, said, ‘No, I don’t think so.’ ”The official line in Washington on Sunday evening, according to its New York platform, is that “the Americans killed on Sunday were the first known fatalities from hostile fire in the region since the Oct. 7 attacks by Hamas…It was unclear on Sunday why air defences at the outpost failed to intercept the drone, which former military commanders said appeared to be the first known assault on the location since attacks on U.S. forces began soon after the Oct. 7 incursion.”
Indian navy rescues Iranian fishing boat hijacked by Somali pirates - India's navy said Tuesday it had freed an Iranian fishing vessel hijacked by Somali pirates, the second in as many days, after the latest attack on Indian Ocean shipping. The warship INS Sumitra "compelled the safe release" of the 19 Pakistani crew members and the Iranian-flagged Al Naeemi fishing vessel, the spokesman said. A total of "11 Somali pirates" had taken the crew hostage, the navy said. Photographs released by the navy showed Somali pirates wielding AK-47 rifles standing on the boat, and another with a navy helicopter hovering overhead. Further photographs showed commandos boarding the fishing boat in the dark, then standing with rifles over a group of pirates, the men kneeling at their feet with their hands tied behind their backs on the ship's deck. The rescue took place overnight Monday off the Somali coast, some 850 nautical miles (1,574 kilometres) west of the Indian city of Kochi. It came just 36 hours after India said its forces had freed 17 crew members of the Iranian-flagged Iman fishing vessel, also taken by Somali pirates. In a third case, commandos from the Seychelles on Monday freed the Sri Lankan fishing vessel Lorenzo Putha-4 and safely rescued its six-man crew. That boat had been hijacked three days earlier by Somali gunmen about 840 nautical miles (1,555 kilometres) southeast of Mogadishu, the capital of impoverished and war-ravaged Somalia.
US Establishes New Stockpile in Australia to Prepare for War Over Taiwan - The US created a new stockpile of military equipment during drills in Australia last summer to prepare for a future war with China over Taiwan,Reuters reported on Wednesday.The stockpile was left behind after the Talisman Sabre exercises, which ran from July 22 to August 4 and were billed as the largest-ever iteration of the drill, demonstrating US focus on preparing for a future conflict in the Asia Pacific.The Reuters report said the equipment left behind includes 330 vehicles and trailers and 130 containers in a warehouse in Bandiana, a suburb of Wodonga, a city in southeastern Australia.The supplies are enough to supply three logistics companies that would focus on getting equipment to US troops who are fighting a war elsewhere in the region. “We’re looking to do this more and more,” said Gen. Charles Flynn, the top Army commander in the Pacific. “There’s a number of other countries in the region where we already have agreements to do that.”The US is working to establish stockpiles in the Philippines, Japan, and other countries in the region. Congress is also looking to establish a weapons stockpile in Taiwan itself, something that might not be publicizeddue to the risk of provoking China.US Army Secretary Christine Wormuth said last year that the Army’s role in a future war with China would be to establish “staging bases for the Navy, for the Marines, for the Air Force” and to “provide intra-theater sustainment” using the weapons stockpiles and watercraft. Wormuth said the Army would also have a role to play in the homeland since a full-blown US-China war would likely spread around the globe. “If we got into a major war with China, the United States homeland would be at risk as well, with both kinetic attacks and non-kinetic attacks,” she said.US military officials are preparing for a direct war with China despite the obvious risk of it quickly turning nuclear. They say they’re trying to “deter” a war, but the military buildup in the Asia Pacific and the new levels of US support for Taiwan make a conflict more likely.
EU Plans to Sabotage Hungary's Economy If Orban Blocks Ukraine Aid - The EU is planning to sabotage Hungary’s economy if Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban blocks a 50 billion euro aid package to Ukraine at a summit of EU leaders that will happen on Thursday, Financial Timesreported on Monday.The plan that has been outlined by EU officials in a document obtained byFT looks to exploit Hungary’s economic weaknesses, hurt its currency, and scare off investors to hurt “jobs and growth” in the country. If Orban doesn’t lift his veto of the Ukraine aid, the EU plans to cut off all funding to Hungary. Without that funding, the document says, “financial markets and European and international companies might be less interested in investing in Hungary,” and that could “quickly trigger a further increase of the cost of funding of the public deficit and a drop in the currency.” An EU diplomat speaking to FT admitted that the plan to pressure Hungary is “blackmail.” In response to the report, Hungary’s envoy to the EU, Janos Boka, said Budapest doesn’t “give in to pressure” and would continue to negotiate on the issue. “Hungary does not establish a connection between support for Ukraine and access to EU funds, and rejects other parties doing so,” he said.Hungary has come under heavy criticism from other EU states and the US for its stance on the proxy war in Ukraine. US Ambassador to Hungary David Pressman slammed Orban last week for what he called a “fantasy foreign policy.” The EU has been trying for months to pass the 50 billion euro aid package that’s meant to be disbursed over four years to fund the Ukrainian government. President Biden is also struggling to get new spending for Ukraine. Kyiv has said Ukrainian government workers could face delays in the payment of their salaries or pensions if the US and the EU do not approve new aid packages soon.
EU Gets Hungary to Agree on 50 Billion Euro Aid Package for Ukraine - The EU successfully pressured Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban to approve a 50 billion euro ($54 billion) aid package to Ukraine, and EU leaders agreed to push through the spending on Thursday. Ahead of the summit, Financial Times reported that the EU was threatening to sabotage Hungary’s economy if Orban vetoed the spending package. A European diplomat acknowledged to FT that the strategy was “blackmail.”Orban also held one-on-one meetings with some other European leaders who convinced him to approve the aid.The 50 billion euros is economic aid meant to be disbursed to Ukraine from 2024 to 2027. As part of the negotiations, Orban wanted a chance to veto payments to Ukraine each year. But EU officials refused that condition and settled on allowing regular reviews of the spending.Orban portrayed his approval of the aid package as a victory and said Hungarian funds would not be going to Ukraine. “Mission accomplished. Hungary’s funds will not end up in Ukraine and we have a control mechanism at the end of the first and the second year,” he said. “Our position on the war in Ukraine remains unchanged: we need a ceasefire and peace talks.”
Protesting farmers start blocking motorways around Paris: AFP --Protesting French farmers began blocking several motorways around Paris on Monday to press their demands for better working conditions, higher pay and less red tape, AFP reporters said. In an intensifying standoff with the French government, the farmers began cutting off traffic at 2:00 pm (1300 GMT), with the target of establishing eight chokepoints along the major arteries to Paris in the course of the afternoon.
Violent clashes outside European Parliament amid massive farmer protests - European farmers took the protest near the EU summit in Brussels today, blocking roads with 1 300 tractors and clashing with police. The protests started earlier this month, but demonstrations have now spread across Europe as farmers from Belgium, France, Italy, and Spain demand help with taxes and rising costs. EU leaders acknowledged the crisis, amid calls for action ahead of European Parliament elections. Farmer protests have now become a pan-European phenomenon, with actions reported at key locations across the continent. Farmers from across Europe, including Belgium, France, Italy, and Spain, converged on Brussels on Thursday, February 1, 2024, escalating their protests to a new level of intensity. The protesters, numbering in the thousands and armed with 1 300 tractors, effectively paralyzed major thoroughfares in the city. Their actions outside the European Parliament turned violent as they hurled eggs and stones, started fires near the building, and detonated fireworks to capture the attention of European Union leaders gathered for a summit. The farmers’ demonstrations, marked by attempts to breach barriers near the Parliament and the damaging of a statue, were met with a robust police response. Officers deployed tear gas and water cannons in an effort to disperse the crowds and protect the summit venue at the European Council headquarters. YouTube video. The protests have not been confined to Belgium; they have become a pan-European phenomenon, with actions reported at key locations across the continent. In Portugal, farmers blocked roads near the Spanish border, while in France, a massive convoy of tractors headed towards Paris, and blockades disrupted traffic around the capital. On January 31, the French government deployed armored vehicles to safeguard a wholesale food market in Paris, indicating rising tensions amid ongoing farmer protests. Spanish and Italian farmers are also joining their counterparts in Germany in the demonstrations. The farmers’ grievances are multifaceted, centering on insufficient compensation, burdensome taxes, stringent environmental regulations, and unfair international competition. These issues have galvanized the farming community, leading to widespread protests ahead of the European Parliament elections in June.
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