week ending Oct 26

Fed officials call for 'gradual' and 'modest' rate cuts -- Three Federal Reserve officials reiterated Monday that they see the central bank moving gradually to lower rates, giving the Fed time to assess any uncertainties associated with the job market and inflation. Kansas City Fed president Jeff Schmid called for a "cautious and gradual" approach to easing monetary policy. Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari said he expects "modest cuts over the next quarters." And Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan repeated her prior view that rates will come down "gradually," citing an increased risk that the job market could worsen and a danger that inflation could still heat up again. "If the economy evolves as I currently expect, a strategy of gradually lowering the policy rate toward a more normal or neutral level can help manage the risks and achieve our goals," Logan said in a speech at the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association annual meeting in New York. Schmid was even more direct, saying, "My preference would be to avoid outsized moves." “Lowering rates in a gradual fashion would provide time to observe the economy’s reaction to our interest rate adjustments and give us the space to assess at what level interest rates are neither restricting nor boosting the economy,” Schmid added in a speech in Kansas City, Mo. titled, "How far and how fast." The Fed last month lowered rates for the first time in more than four years, by half a percentage point, while estimating that rates would move even lower over the next 12 to 18 months. Fed officials penciled a median estimate of two more smaller rate cuts for the remainder of this year. Fed officials will meet again on Nov. 6-7, and traders are currently betting on a 25 basis point rate cut. Fed officials were split at their last meeting about whether to start with a big or small cut, but many have since said they prefer to move at a measured pace going forward. Fed governor Chris Waller said last week the Fed needs to proceed with "more caution" when cutting rates. Logan said Monday the economy is "strong and stable" but that "meaningful uncertainties" remain in the outlook. The downside risks to the job market have increased, she added, despite a stronger-than-expected jobs report for the month of September that caused traders to question whether the labor market was gaining more strength. Inflation has come down after a Fed campaign to cool prices, Logan said, but there are still risks it could bubble up again. Her comment comes after a warmer-than-expected inflation reading for the month of September, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, caused some to wonder if the Fed could slow or pause its new rate-cutting cycle.

The Future of QT, Balance Sheet Composition, and Liquidity: Fed’s Lorie Logan -by Wolf Richter . Lorie Logan, president of the Dallas Fed, is a leading voice on the technicalities of the Fed’s balance sheet and QT. Prior to the current job, she was an executive VP of the New York Fed, managing the System Open Market Account (SOMA) which handles the operations of the Fed’s securities portfolio. Her hawkish commentary on Monday about the future of QT, the balance sheet composition, and liquidity contributed to roiling the bond market, with longer-term yields and mortgage rates spiking to multi-month highs. She was the one who said in January 2024 that QT would eventually drain Overnight Reverse Repos (ON RRPs) to near zero, from over $2.3 trillion at the peak, which was a shock for lots of folks because it implied far bigger QT than they’d feared.ON RRPs are a way for money market funds and other counterparties to deposit excess cash at the Fed and get paid interest on it. She said when they “eventually approach zero,” it would be time to slow the pace of QT. In March, with ON RRP balances plunging apparently straight toward zero,Logan became more detailed and explained why QT should slow when ON RRPs approach zero: “Moving more slowly can reduce the risk of an accident that would require us to stop too soon,” she said.In May, with ON RRPs down by about $2 trillion and still plunging, the FOMC announced that it would slow QT starting in June. But then, ON RRP stopped their descent for a while and then slowly zigzagged lower, and are currently at $238 billion (see chart of ON RRPs below this article in the comments).Reserves (cash that banks put on deposit at the Fed and get paid interest on) have started to finally drop a little. Bringing reserves down from “abundant” to merely “ample” has been the purpose of QT all along. But after two years and nearly $2 trillion of QT, reserves are still considered “abundant.” On Monday, she gave another speech on the balance sheet, titled “Normalizing the FOMC’s monetary policy tools” – at the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association annual meeting. Here are the salient points on the future of QT and the balance sheet.QT will continue despite rate cuts. QT and “gradually lowering the policy rate toward a more normal or neutral level” are both part of monetary policy normalization, she said, and added:“Normalizing the fed funds rate means bringing it down from the elevated levels that were needed to restore price stability and returning to a level that will be consistent with sustaining maximum employment and price stability over time.”“Normalizing our balance sheet means bringing our asset holdings down from the elevated quantity that was necessary to support the economy during the pandemic and returning to a balance sheet size that will be consistent with implementing monetary policy efficiently and effectively.” Liquidity is still “more than ample.” The purpose of QT is to reduce liquidity from “abundant” to “ample.” Since no one knows where “abundant” ends and “ample” begins, Logan is looking at clues that money markets are giving off.“One sign liquidity remains in abundant supply, and not merely ample, is that money market rates continue to generally run well below IORB [the interest rate the Fed pays the banks on reserves, currently 4.9%]. The tri-party general collateral rate (TGCR) on repos secured by Treasury securities has been averaging 8 basis points below IORB [currently at 4.82%]. Because reserves and Treasury repos are both essentially risk-free overnight assets – and reserves are, if anything, more liquid – the spread of IORB over TGCR indicates reserves remain in relatively excess supply compared with other liquid assets.”“Unsecured funding conditions [in the federal funds market]also continue to reflect abundant liquidity. The effective federal funds rate has been running 7 basis points below IORB and remains insensitive to short-term fluctuations in reserve levels.”“And the continuing substantial balances in the Fed’s overnight reverse repo (ON RRP) facility provide another sign that liquidity remains more than ample.”Get used to money market spreads widening briefly. The Fed is going to tolerate these brief events, especially at the end of the quarter because they’re “price signals” that markets need in order to distribute liquidity. She said:“For example, on September 30 and October 1, the spread between SOFR and TGCR widened by 7 to 12 basis points. This widening reportedly resulted from limited balance sheet availability at dealers that intermediate between the triparty and centrally cleared market segments.”“Such temporary rate pressures can be price signals that help market participants redistribute liquidity to the places where it’s needed most. And from a policy perspective, I think it’s important to tolerate normal, modest, temporary pressures of this type so we can get to an efficient balance sheet size.”ON RRPs should essentially vanish from the balance sheet. She said it would be “appropriate in the long run to operate with only negligible balances in the ON RRP facility.”And if ON RRPs refuse to vanish… “I anticipate the remaining balances will move out of the facility as repo rates rise closer to IORB, but if they do not, reducing the ON RRP interest rate [currently 4.8%] could incentivize participants to return funds to private markets” instead of leaving them parked at the Fed.Get rid of MBS, maybe sell them to speed up the process. “We intend to hold primarily Treasury securities in the long run,” Logan said, citing what the Fed has said for years. But getting rid of MBS has been slow going. MBS come off the balance sheet mostly via passthrough principal payments when the underlying mortgages are paid off or are paid down. But much higher mortgage rates have caused mortgage refis to collapse and sales of mortgaged homes to plunge, and passthrough principal payments have slowed to a trickle. She said:“As indicated in the minutes of the May 2022 FOMC meeting, a number of FOMC participants have suggested it could be appropriate at some point to sell MBS to move the mix of assets closer to our goal. But that’s not a near-term issue in my view.” So maybe medium-term?Shifting Treasury holdings toward shorter maturities. Logan expects the balance sheet composition to shift toward shorter maturities, where the Fed would replace maturing long-term securities with T-bills and shorter-term securities. She said the “two most plausible options in the long run” for this shift are:Either “hold a roughly neutral Treasury portfolio, meaning one with a maturity composition similar to that of the Treasury universe.”The Fed is overloaded with longer-term maturities, and only 4.5% ($195 billion) of its Treasuries are T-bills. But 22% of marketable Treasury securities outstanding are T-bills. To get to a neutral composition with T-bills at 22% of its Treasury holdings, the Fed would have to replace a lot of longer maturities with T-bills.Or “tilt toward shorter maturities” which “would allow more flexibility.” So even more T-bills would replace even more longer-term securities. That’s how the Fed used to do it before 2008.The flexibility a “tilt toward shorter maturities” provides would matter if the Fed cut interest rates to 0% (the effective lower bound), and the economy still needs more help with lower long-term rates. In that case, instead of restarting QE, the Fed could let T-bills run off the balance sheet and buy longer maturities, which would keep the balance sheet size the same but would push down longer-term yields.“Either way, the System Open Market Account portfolio is significantly underweight Treasury bills, and its weighted average maturity remains significantly longer than that of marketable debt outstanding. The tradeoffs around how to move toward a more neutral portfolio are complex and will require thoughtful policy deliberations,” she said.The Fed’s role as liquidity provider to banks. As QT removes more liquidity, and as reserves decline toward “ample,” the Fed’s classic role of short-term liquidity provider to banks is expected to make a comeback. Logan briefly discussed two basic liquidity tools, the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) and the Discount Window.The Standing Repo Facility was revived in July 2021, a year before QT started, after the Fed had shut it down in 2009 because the massive amount of new liquidity from QE had made it useless. Before 2009, banks used it on a daily basis to manage their liquidity. And the Fed used the SRF to deal with market problems before QE. For example, on 9-11, when markets were shut down for days, the SRF was the balance sheet tool the Fed used to calm the waters – and not QE.But use of the SRF is not automatic. Banks have to get set up and approved. Logan exhorted banks “to consider the potential benefits of establishing access to the SRF.”And there was a little bit of use at the end of the quarter, when lots of liquidity flows all over the place. On September 30, banks borrowed $2.6 billion from the Fed via overnight repos that matured on October 1. It was minuscule, and it was just for one day, but it was the first draw on the SRF since its revival. Logan referred to it:“I was pleased to see the SRF drawn on over the quarter-end turn as market participants worked through frictions in the redistribution of liquidity.”The discount window. Logan exhorted banks: “Every bank in the United States should be operationally ready to access the discount window. That means completing the legal documents, making collateral arrangements and testing the plumbing…. Take out and repay small-dollar test loans. And practice moving collateral between the window and other collateralized funding sources, in case a scenario arises where you can’t get the funding you want from those sources. The window is an important tool for healthy banks to meet their liquidity needs, but it works only when banks are ready to use it.”

Bank of America CEO urges Fed to not go too hard on rates -- Bank of America’s Chief Executive Brian Moynihan has urged Federal Reserve policymakers to be measured in the magnitude of interest-rate reductions. The danger for the central bankers is that "they go too fast or too slow and that risk is higher now than it was six months ago," BofA Chief Executive Brian Moynihan said.

Fed's Beige Book: "Economic activity was little changed" --Fed's Beige Book On balance, economic activity was little changed in nearly all Districts since early September, though two Districts reported modest growth. Most Districts reported declining manufacturing activity. Activity in the banking sector was generally steady to up slightly, and loan demand was mixed, with some Districts noting an improvement in the outlook due to the decline in interest rates. Reports on consumer spending were mixed, with some Districts noting shifts in the composition of purchases, mostly toward less expensive alternatives. Housing market activity has generally held up: inventory continued to expand in much of the nation, and home values largely held steady or rose slightly. Still, uncertainty about the path of mortgage rates kept some buyers on the sidelines, and the lack of affordable housing remained a persistent problem in many communities. Commercial real estate markets were generally flat, although data center and infrastructure projects boosted activity in a few Districts. The short-lived dockworkers strike caused only minor temporary disruptions. Hurricane damage impacted crops and prompted pauses in business activity and tourism in the Southeast. Agricultural activity was flat to down modestly, with some crop prices remaining unprofitably low. Energy activity was also unchanged or down modestly, and lower energy prices reportedly compressed producers’ margins. Despite elevated uncertainty, contacts were somewhat more optimistic about the longer-term outlook. On balance, employment increased slightly during this reporting period, with more than half of the Districts reporting slight or modest growth and the remaining Districts reporting little or no change. Many Districts reported low worker turnover, and layoffs reportedly remained limited. Demand for workers eased somewhat, with hiring focused primarily on replacement rather than growth. Worker availability improved, as many contacts reported it had become easier to find the workers they need. Inflation continued to moderate with selling prices reportedly increasing at a slight or modest pace in most Districts.

Ugly, Dovish Beige Book Warns Of Manufacturing Decline In "Most Districts", Greenlights Further Rate Cuts - Back in September, the otherwise sleepy and mostly boring report that is the Fed's Beige Book report (which nobody otherwise reads due to its sheer size) got a sudden boost of notoriety and popularity when none other than Jerome Powell explained after the Fed's 50bps rate cut, that he had been closely following the Beige Book which had emerged as a driving force behind the Fed's unexpected "jumbo" 50bps rate cut. And unlike others, we actually do read the Beige Book, which is why two weeks before the FOMC rate cut we titled our analysis of the latest report as follows: "Ugly Beige Book Reveals Economic Activity "Flat Or Declining", Consumer Spending Slowing In Most Districts." So one can see why Powell panicked. Fast forward to today when moments ago the Fed published its latest, October, Beige Book which indicated a continuation of the "ugly" sluggish conditions observed in September, and which on its own, will likely be sufficient to enable further rate cuts in coming months.According to the Fed's latest report, economic activity on balance was "little changed in nearly all Districts since early September, though two Districts reported modest growth." Worse, "most Districts reported declining manufacturing activity." Additionally, reports on consumer spending were mixed, "with some Districts noting shifts in the composition of purchases, mostly toward less expensive alternatives" indicating the Fed will likely have to ease further to boost the low-end income consumer.It wasn't all bad, as activity in the banking sector was "generally steady to up slightly, and loan demand was mixed, with some Districts noting an improvement in the outlook due to the decline in interest rates." Also, housing market activity has generally held up: inventory continued to expand in much of the nation, "and home values largely held steady or rose slightly. Still, uncertainty about the path of mortgage rates kept some buyers on the sidelines, and the lack of affordable housing remained a persistent problem in many communities." At the same time, commercial real estate markets were generally flat, "although data center and infrastructure projects boosted activity in a few Districts."Elsewhere, agricultural activity also called for easier conditions, as it was "flat to down modestly, with some crop prices remaining unprofitably low. Energy activity was also unchanged or down modestly, and lower energy prices reportedly compressed producers’ margins." Despite elevated uncertainty, the Fed founds that its contacts were somewhat more optimistic about the longer-term outlook, surely the result of the recent easing cycle. Turning to one-time items, the Fed wrote that "the short-lived dockworkers strike caused only minor temporary disruptions. Hurricane damage impacted crops and prompted pauses in business activity and tourism in the Southeast."Some more details from the Beige Book, starting with Labor Markets:

• Employment increased slightly during this reporting period, with more than half of the Districts reporting slight or modest growth and the remaining Districts reporting little or no change.
• Many Districts reported low worker turnover, and layoffs reportedly remained limited.
• Demand for workers eased somewhat, with hiring focused primarily on replacement rather than growth.
• Worker availability improved, as many contacts reported it had become easier to find the workers they need. However, contacts noted that it remained difficult to find workers with certain skills or in some industries, such as technology, manufacturing, and construction.
• Wages generally continued to rise at a modest to moderate pace. With the improvement in worker availability, contacts in multiple Districts pointed to a slowdown in the pace of wage increases. Still, larger than usual pay increases were reported for some workers, such as those in the skilled trades or in remote areas.

Turning to prices:

• Inflation continued to moderate with selling prices reportedly increasing at a slight or modest pace in most Districts.
• Still, the prices of some food products, such as eggs and dairy, were reported to have increased more sharply.
• Home prices edged up in many Districts, while rents were reported to be steady or down slightly.
• Many Districts noted increasing price sensitivity among consumers.
• Input prices generally rose moderately.
• Contacts across several industries noted more acute pressures from rising insurance and healthcare costs (which the Fed has no control over).
• Multiple Districts reported that input prices generally rose faster than selling prices, compressing firms’ profit margins.

Which Foreign Countries Bought the Recklessly Ballooning US Debt: An Increasingly Crucial Question. Many Piled it up. Cleanest Dirty Shirt? -by Wolf Richter - The question on our worry-list is how long foreign investors will continue to support the recklessly ballooning US Treasury debt, that has soared to $35.8 trillion, from $35.0 trillion on July 27. If demand slacks off, yields will have to rise to create more demand, and that could get expensive. Foreign investors play a big part in this demand, but proportionately not as big as years ago. The importance of China and Japan has dwindled, while the Euro Area, big financial centers, and other countries, including Canada, Taiwan, and India, have piled up Treasury securities and have become large holders. So far, knock on wood, there has been solid demand from foreigners: They piled up Treasury securities at an accelerated pace since late 2022 as the Fed’s rate hikes and higher long-term yields made US Treasury debt more attractive than a lot of sovereign debt that yields less than US debt. For example, Italy’s 10-year yield is at 3.36% currently, versus 4.08% for the US 10-year yield, which has risen since the rate cuts. France’s 10-year yield is at 2.90%, Germany’s is at 2.19%, Japan’s is at 0.97%, which is far below Japan’s inflation rate (core CPI increased by 2.4%). And they all have their ballooning-debt problems, none more than Japan. So for investors, these foreign yields are crummy deals compared to the US 10-year yield of 4.08%, and so there is demand. Cleanest dirty shirt. Treasury debt held by all foreign entities jumped by 2.0% in August from July, and by 11.5% year-over-year (+$880 billion), to an all-time high of $8.50 trillion, according to Treasury Department data Thursday afternoon (red line in the chart below). In summary, the biggest holders: Top six financial centers: $2.51 trillion, +3.6% month-over-month, +14.2% YoY (blue). They are: London, Belgium, Luxembourg, Switzerland, Cayman Islands, and Ireland. Euro Area: $1.69 trillion, +2.3% MoM, +13.5% YoY (green). This includes three of the financial centers above (Belgium, Luxembourg, and Ireland). Japan: $1.13 trillion, +1.2% MoM, +1.2% YoY (gold). China and Hong Kong combined: $1.01 trillion, +0.3% MoM, +0.2% YoY (purple). The chart also shows how the importance of Japan and China has dwindled over the past 12 years, from being by far the top two foreign creditors in 2012, to being far below the financial centers and the Euro Area in 2024 The share of foreign holdings had dropped from the peak of 34% in 2015 to a low of 22.2% by October 2023, as the US debt ballooned faster proportionately than foreigners increased their pile of it – they increased their pile but more slowly than the debt grew. But since October 2023, foreigners increased their holdings at a faster pace than the debt ballooned, and the share of the debt that foreign investors are holding has risen, and in August reached 24.1%, the highest in two years. The six largest financial centers: +3.6% MoM, +14.2% YoY, to a record $2.51 trillion. Their holdings more than tripled since 2012! These countries specialize in handling the financial holdings of global companies, individuals, and governments. Ireland is a favorite for US mega-corporations to store their profits. So some of the holdings at these financial centers are actually held for US entities, and not foreign investors.

• UK (“City of London” financial center): +2.1% MoM, +18.5% YoY, to $744 billion
• Luxembourg: +0.5% MoM, + 9.9% YoY, to $402 billion
• Cayman Islands: +11.0% MoM, +35.5% YoY to $420 billion
• Ireland: +2.9% MoM, +9.5% YoY, to $322 billion
• Belgium (home of Euroclear): +2.9% MoM, +2.6% YoY, to $325 billion
• Switzerland: +3.8% MoM, +4.5% YoY to $296 billion.

Euro Area v. China + Hong Kong. China and Hong Kong combined have reduced their holdings from $1.45 trillion in 2015 to $1.01 trillion in August (blue). Over the past five months, their holdings have inched up. Year-over-year, their holdings were essentially unchanged.The countries of the Euro Area have more than tripled their holdings in 12 years, from $534 billion in 2012 to a record $1.69 trillion August (red).The Euro Area’s holdings surged by 2.3% MoM and by 13.5% YoY (or by $200 billion YoY)!There have been reports that China has shifted some of its USD holdings from Treasury securities to US Agency securities due to their slightly higher yields. US Agency debt is not included here.

• Japan’s holdings: +1.2% MoM, +1.2% YoY, to $1.13 trillion. Authorities have been struggling to contain the plunge of the yen. It currently trades at around 150 yen to the USD. Since early 2022, the yen has lost roughly 30% of its value against the USD because the Bank of Japan has decided that it would do the absolute minimum as late as possible to tighten monetary policy.The BoJ has hiked policy rates twice, two tiny baby steps, from -0.1% to 0.25% currently. And over the past few months, it started slow-motion QT. To prevent the yen from collapsing further, the Ministry of Finance intervened in the foreign exchange markets multiple times, selling large amounts of USD holdings to buy yen with it.Despite big gyrations in its Treasury holdings, in August, they were where they’d been in mid-2013.
• United Kingdom: +2.1% MoM, +18.5% YoY, to $744 billion. The City of London is one of the top financial centers in the world, and so a portion of those securities could be held for US clients. The UK is also included in the Top Six Financial Centers above.
• Canada: -3.3% MoM, +23.8% YoY to $365 billion. Since March 2021, holdings have more than tripled. Over the past 12 years, holdings have multiplied by a factor of 7!
• Taiwan: +3.4% MoM, +18.0% YoY, to $284 billion:
• India: +3.0% MoM, +5.8% YoY, to $246 billion. Its holdings have multiplied by a factor of 6 since 2012:
• Brazil: +1.8% MoM, +4.5% YoY, to $233 billion. Between 2018 and 2021, Brazil cut its holdings by about one-third, undoing the entire spike of its holdings in 2018. Since January 2023, its holdings have zigzagged higher.

US THAAD Missile Defense System Now Operational in Israel - The US Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery that has been deployed to Israel with about 100 US troops is now operational, the Israeli broadcaster Kan reported on Sunday.The US deployed the missile defense system amid anticipation of an Israeli attack on Iran in retaliation for the October 1 Iranian missile barrage that was fired at Israel, which came in response to a series of Israeli escalations in the region.The US and Israel are anticipating Iran to hit back in response to any Israeli attack, making the US troops deployed with the THAAD system a potential target of Iranian ballistic missiles.Israel’s Channel 12 reported on Friday that Israel has requested the US to send another THAAD system, signaling Israel is expecting major escalations. There’s been no word yet on whether the US is considering the request.Throughout the past year, the US has deployed additional military assets to the Middle East to show support for Israel, but sending to the THAAD system was the first significant US deployment on Israeli territory, although an unknown number of US special operations forces have been on the ground in Israel helping with intelligence.The US may support Israel’s attack on Iran either by launching airstrikes of its own or by providing intelligence. Either way, the US will be directly involved in a full-blown Iran-Israel war since it’s vowing to defend Israel from any Iranian reprisal.

Blinken heads to Middle East in wake of Sinwar's killing --Secretary of State Antony Blinken is going to the Middle East in the wake of the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.“On my way to Israel and other stops in the Middle East for intensive discussions about the importance of ending the war in Gaza, returning the hostages to their families, and alleviating the suffering of the Palestinian people,” Blinken said in a post on the social platform X Monday. Blinken’s trip comes after the death of Sinwar last week amid an Israeli military operation in Gaza, according to the Israeli military. In a joint statement with German Foreign Affairs Minister Annalena Baerbock last week, Blinken called the Hamas leader and architect of the Oct. 7 attack last year against Israel “a brutal murderer and terrorist who was bent on eradicating Israel and its people.”“Sinwar stood in the way of a ceasefire in Gaza. His death can create a momentum to end the conflict,” Baerbock and Blinken said in the statement. “All hostages must be released. At the same time, humanitarian aid must be surged to the civilians in Gaza in need.”According to a statement from State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller, the secretary “will discuss the importance of bringing the war in Gaza to an end, securing the release of all hostages, and alleviating the suffering of the Palestinian people” amid his trip.In a Thursday statement, President Biden said “the opportunity for a ‘day after‘ in Gaza without Hamas in power, and for a political settlement that provides a better future for Israelis and Palestinians alike” exists “now[.]”“Yahya Sinwar was an insurmountable obstacle to achieving all of those goals. That obstacle no longer exists. But much work remains before us,” Biden said.

Netanyahu and Blinken Discuss 'Uniting Against' Iran - Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem on Tuesday and discussed “uniting against” Iran.“The issue of the Iranian threat was raised, including the need for both countries to unite against it,” Netanyahu’s office said in a statement on the meeting. “The Prime Minister thanked the American Secretary of State for the support of the US in the fight against Iran’s axis of evil and terrorism.”The State Department said in a readout of the meeting that the two officials discussed efforts to “deter further regional aggression from Iran and its proxies” and said Blinken “reaffirmed the United States’ ironclad commitment to Israel’s security.” The meeting comes amid anticipation of an Israeli attack on Iran in response to the Iranian missile barrage that was fired at Israeli territory, which was retaliation for a string of Israeli escalations, including the killing of Hamas’s political chief, Ismail Haniyeh, while he was visiting Tehran.It’s unclear how big Israel’s attack on Iran will be or when it will happen, but it’s expected to take place before the US presidential election on November 5. According to Israeli media, Israel could use a Hezbollah drone attack that targeted Netanyahu’s home as a pretext to justify more extensive strikes on Iran.Iran has denied any role in the attack on Netanyahu’s home, which wasofficially claimed by Hezbollah on Tuesday. Blinken and Netanyahu discussed the attack during their meeting, according to the statement of Netanyahu’s office, which made clear Israel was still blaming the incident on Iran.“The American Secretary of State expressed the US’s deep shock over the Iranian attempt, via Hezbollah, to eliminate the Prime Minister of Israel, and made it clear that this was an exceptionally extreme incident,” the statement said.The US is supporting Israel’s plans to attack Iran by vowing to defend Israel from any retaliation. The US has deployed a THAAD air defense system and about 100 troops to operate it on Israeli territory, which could become a potential target of Iranian missiles. It’s also possible that the US directly supports the Israeli attack on Iran either by providing intelligence or launching strikes of its own.

Netanyahu Declines Blinken Request To Publicly Reject Gaza Ethnic Cleansing Plan - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his aides rejected a request from Secretary of State Antony Blinken to publicly say that Israel is not implementing an ethnic cleansing plan in northern Gaza, known as the “general’s plan,” The Washington Post reported Tuesday.The report said Netanyahu and his top aide Ron Dermer told Blinken that the general’s plan was “absolutely not our policy” and that the perception has been “deeply damaging to us.” But when asked to state that publicly, they declined.The Times of Israel also reported that Netanyahu rejected the request to publicly denounce the ethnic cleansing plan.While Israeli officials have told the US they’re not carrying out the ethnic cleansing plan, Israeli soldiers told Haaretz last week that it’s already underway in northern Gaza, where Israel has ordered hundreds of thousands of Palestinians to flee to the south and imposed a full siege. More than 500 Palestinians have been killed by the renewed assault, which has been focused on the Jabalia refugee camp.The general’s plan calls for the forced evacuation of all Palestinians from northern Gaza. Under the plan, after a certain amount of time, the entire north will be declared a closed military zone, and anyone who stays behind will be killed by military action or through a starvation blockade.The completion of the general’s plan could pave the way for Jewish settlements in Gaza, an idea favored by many Israeli ministers and members of the Knesset. At a “resettle Gaza” conference held on Monday, May Golan, a member of Netanyahu’s Likud party and the minister for social equality, called for a new “Nakba” in Gaza.

Blinken discusses mass extermination plan with Netanyahu, pledges “ironclad commitment” to Israel US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday to hold a “friendly and productive” discussion about the Israeli government’s plan—known as the “General’s Plan”—to ethnically cleanse northern Gaza and kill all Palestinians who remain. While the extermination plan was not mentioned in the public readouts from either government, US officials told multiple newspapers that it was a central focus of the discussion. In its report of the meeting,the Washington Post wrote: US officials told Netanyahu there is a “perception” that Israel is pursuing a strategy of “isolating the north, telling people that if they don’t leave they’re effectively targets and denying food to go in,” said the official. When Israeli officials made pro forma claims that this was not the official government policy, “US officials then insisted that Netanyahu should ‘go to greater lengths’” to say that publicly, the official said, adding that the Israelis declined to make such a commitment. In other words, US officials acknowledged that they were aware of the Netanyahu government’s mass extermination plan, and when they asked it to publicly declare that it was not the policy, the Israeli government refused. In response to this blunt declaration, Blinken issued a communique declaring the United States’ blanket support for Israel: “The Secretary reaffirmed the United States’ ironclad commitment to Israel’s security” and pledged to continue “ongoing efforts by the United States and its partners” to support Israel. In their discussions, Israeli officials allegedly told Blinken that they were increasing food to Gaza—a ridiculous falsehood contradicted by reports from multiple human rights agencies, which have indicated that less food has been allowed into Gaza this month than ever before. Blinken allegedly accepted this claim, with the New York Times reporting, “Mr. Blinken acknowledged to them that the United States had seen some recent improvement.” The significance of Blinken’s visit is clear: He has given the United States’ stamp of approval for the ethnic cleansing, mass starvation and ultimate annexation and settlement of northern Gaza by Israel. The communique’s assertion that the United States is calling for more food to enter Gaza constitutes nothing but wartime disinformation, aimed at hiding the fact that the United States government fully supports and enables the genocide of the Palestinian people. Over the past year, the United States has provided Israel with $17.9 billion in aid, including more than 14,000 2,000-pound bombs, which have been used to destroy or damage the majority of buildings in Gaza, effectively leveling the enclave. This month, the US announced the deployment of US combat troops to support Israel’s war throughout the Middle East. Blinken’s visit was timed to correspond with a rally addressed by Israeli government officials on the Gaza border in an event titled “Preparing to Resettle Gaza.” “We can renew settlements in Gaza,” National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir told rally participants, to the sound of explosions over the Gaza border and smoke in the distance. Ben-Gvir called for Israel to “encourage emigration” of Palestinians from Gaza, declaring, “We’re giving you the option, leave to other countries, the Land of Israel is ours.” One conference participant was even more direct in remarks to Sky News regarding the Palestinians in Gaza: “We should kill them, every last one of them. And if the government won’t do that, then we should just kick them out. This is our land.” As Blinken met with Netanyahu and Ben-Gvir called for the displacement of the Palestinians, the ethnic cleansing operation was in full force. In a statement on Tuesday, Philippe Lazzarini, commissioner-general of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), gave a harrowing account of life in Gaza: Nearly three weeks of non-stop bombardments from the Israeli Forces as the death toll increases. Our staff report they cannot find food, water, or medical care. The smell of death is everywhere as bodies are left lying on the roads or under the rubble. Missions to clear the bodies or provide humanitarian assistance are denied. In northern Gaza, people are just waiting to die. They feel deserted, hopeless, and alone. They live from one hour to the next, fearing death at every second.

Blinken gives US stamp of approval for Netanyahu’s war of extermination in Gaza - In June of 1941, Nazi Germany launched Operation Barbarossa, the invasion of the Soviet Union. It was to be a “war of annihilation,” a “Vernichtungskrieg,” involving not only the destruction of cities and economic infrastructure but the extermination of the population in preparation for settlement of the land by German citizens. Populated areas of the Soviet Union under Nazi control were subjected to the “Hunger Plan” devised by SS Senior Group Leader Herbert Backe, with Nazi officials concluding that “millions of people will die of starvation” as a result of the plan. This month, the state of Israel adopted the 21st century version of Nazi Germany’s “Hunger Plan.” The role of Herbert Backe is today played by Giora Eiland, a retired major general of the Israel Defense Forces and a former head of the Israeli National Security Council. For over one year, Eiland has advocated the deliberate starvation of the population of Gaza as a means of exterminating and displacing the people from the territory. In recent months, Eiland consolidated his plan into an actionable proposal to block the entry of all food into Northern Gaza, so that, in his words, “People will not be able to live there. The water will dry up.” Israel would then turn the entire area into a free-fire zone in which extermination squads—modern-day versions of Nazi Germany’s Einsatzgruppen mass extermination squads—would kill everyone who resisted forcible displacement. On October 12, CNN reported: A former senior military official who is aware of the Israeli government and security leadership’s thinking—though not directly involved in decision-making—told CNN that the cabinet had adopted “a version of” Eiland’s proposal, which has come to be known as “The General’s Plan.” Eiland told CNN the claim was “quite true.” In keeping with the plan, Israel has stopped the entry of all food into Northern Gaza, with less food entering the Gaza Strip than at any point since Israel launched its military offensive last year. Israeli army units have surrounded hospitals, carried out indiscriminate airstrikes and besieged refugee camps, forcing their residents to move south at gunpoint. In the course of the operation, more than 700 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces, with countless others starved or killed by preventable disease. It is against this backdrop that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken made his eleventh trip to Israel since the start of the war. On Tuesday, he met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for what the prime minister’s office called a “friendly and productive” discussion of Israel’s war against the Palestinian people. Subsequent media reports have made clear that the discussion revolved around the mass extermination plan. According to the Washington Post: US officials told Netanyahu there is a “perception” that Israel is pursuing a strategy of “isolating the north, telling people that if they don’t leave they’re effectively targets and denying food to go in,” said the official. When the US delegation asked whether the Netanyahu government would, for public relations purposes, disavow the mass extermination plan, “the Israelis declined to make such a commitment,” the Washington Post wrote. In response to this blunt declaration, Blinken issued a communique declaring the United States’ blanket support for Israel: “The Secretary reaffirmed the United States’ ironclad commitment to Israel’s security” and pledged to continue “ongoing efforts by the United States and its partners” to support Israel. Blinken’s visit carries with it enormous political, legal and historical significance. A top representative of the American government was briefed on the plan of mass extermination and proceeded to give what amounted to an unconditional and blanket endorsement of Israeli policy.This means the Israeli “Hunger Plan” is the policy not merely of the Netanyahu government but also of the Biden administration, which is funding, arming and politically supporting the genocide.But as soon as Blinken emerged from his meeting, he began lying about the content of the discussion. “I heard from the prime minister, who is the authoritative word on these things,” Blinken said, that the Israeli government rejects “Israeli reoccupation of Gaza.”No one saw fit to point out to Blinken that Israel has illegally and permanently occupied or controlled the Gaza Strip since 1967—a period of more than 57 years—and that Israel has demolished the majority of the region’s buildings and displaced 95 percent of its people over the past year. But no, Blinken insists, Israel has no interest in “reoccupying” Gaza, and the United States would never support such a policy.Such statements by Blinken constitute a form of wartime disinformation, aimed at creating a smokescreen for the actual US government policy. But unlike traditional wartime disinformation, whose aim is to deceive an enemy army about troop deployments and plans, the target of this deception is the American population, from whom the Biden administration is attempting to hide its complicity in genocide.Let’s be blunt. Blinken came to Israel to sign off on the deliberate starvation of Gaza, the ethnic cleansing of Northern Gaza and the systematic extermination of all who remain. Every crime of which Robert Jackson, the lead prosecutor at the Nuremberg tribunal, accused the leaders of Nazi Germany is being committed on a somewhat smaller scale by the Biden administration. Jackson said that by condemning the leaders of Nazi Germany, the American government was putting a “poisoned chalice … to our own lips as well” if itever carried out similar crimes. Blinken has gulped the chalice down to the dregs.Blinken, Biden and Harris are war criminals. They speak not only for American imperialism but for all the imperialist powers, which are openly embracing every form of social barbarism. In remarks this month, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, a leading member of the Green Party, openly defended attacks on civilians. She said: When Hamas terrorists hide behind people, behind schools, then we end up in very difficult waters. But we’re not shying away from this. This is why I made it clear at the United Nations that civilian sites could lose their protected status if terrorists abuse this status. That’s what Germany stands for—and that’s what we mean when we refer to Israel’s security. This declaration, in its own way, is a restatement of what Eiland has been saying for over a year, that “the ‘poor’ women of Gaza … are all the mothers, sisters or wives of Hamas murderers” and should be killed alongside those engaging in armed resistance. The imperialist powers are declaring that civilians are fair game for extermination

Blinken struggles to heal US-Israel rift after Hamas leader’s death --Secretary of State Antony Blinken left Israel this week with little tangible progress on scaling up humanitarian deliveries to the Gaza Strip or brokering a cease-fire and hostage release deal, despite U.S. hopes that the killing of Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar last week would be a turning point toward ending the war. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has shown little interest in diplomacy or halting military operations, instead pointing to Sinwar’s death as evidence that he was right to ignore Western warnings about Israel expanding its crushing war on Hamas. “It is now clear to everyone, in Israel and in the world, why we insisted on not ending the war,” Netanyahu said shortly after Sinwar’s death was confirmed. Following a two-and-a-half-hour meeting with Blinken on Tuesday, Netanyahu said Sinwar’s death was “likely to have a positive influence on the return of the hostages … and the day after the war.” It was one of the few times Netanyahu has publicly expressed openness to discussing the future of the Gaza Strip absent Hamas leadership. Still, Netanyahu’s words and actions over the past week demonstrate the gap with the U.S., as President Biden pushes for a weeks-long cease-fire deal in Gaza — contingent on Hamas releasing hostages — that would theoretically create space to negotiate the terms for an end to the war. “The Israelis are no longer taking the advice of the United States, particularly when it comes to Gaza, across the board,” Steven Cook, senior fellow for Middle East and North Africa studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, said during a press call following Sinwar’s death. “And there’s a sense [in Israel] … that the United States has just been wrong on a variety of things,” he continued, “that Israel needs to stop taking advice from people who couldn’t get it done in, you know, Afghanistan and other places. That may be unfair, but that was their perspective on things.” The region remains on edge as it awaits an expected Israeli attack against Iran in retaliation for the the country’s Oct. 1 strike against Israel. On Sunday, Hezbollah in Lebanon, which is backed by Iran, targeted Netanyahu’s personal home on the Israeli coast with an explosive drone. The U.S. has deployed a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense missile defense system in anticipation of blowback from Israel’s looming strike on Iran, but U.S. officials have reportedly said they received assurances from the Israelis that they would avoid provocative targets like Iran’s oil and nuclear facilities. Netanyahu on Tuesday said he told Blinken the Hezbollah attack was a “dramatically significant issue that must not be ignored.”

Iran Says Biden Has Shown US Approval and Support for Israeli Attack - Iran’s mission to the UN has said in a letter to the UN Security Council that President Biden has shown “tacit approval and explicit support for Israel’s unlawful military aggression against Iran,” Reuters reported on Monday.The Iranian mission to the UN pointed to comments Biden made in Germany on Friday when he said he had a “good understanding” of Israel’s plans to attack Iran and when it might occur.“The United States will bear full responsibility for its role in instigating, inciting and enabling any acts of aggression by Israel against the Islamic Republic of Iran … as well as for the catastrophic consequences on regional and international peace and security,” Iran’s mission said.The US has been coordinating closely with Israel on its plans to respond to the Iranian missile barrage fired at Israeli territory on October 1, which was retaliation for a string of Israeli escalations in the region, including the killing of Hamas’s political chief, Ismail Haniyeh, while he was visiting Tehran.The US may provide support for the Israeli attack on Iran, whether by providing intelligence or potentially launching strikes of its own. The US has vowed to defend Israel from any Iranian reprisal and deployed a THAAD missile defense system and about 100 troops to Israel, making them potential targets of Iranian missiles. Over the weekend, two “top secret” Pentagon documents were published on a Telegram channel that detailed Israeli preparations for an attack on Iran. The documents said the US observed the Israeli military using air-launched ballistic missiles (ALBMs), air-to-surface ballistic missiles, fighter jets, UAVs, and refueling tankers previously used during Israeli strikes on Houthi sites in Yemen in military drills.

Lying Western Press Scramble To Frame Israel's Attack On Iran As Self-Defense - Caitlin Johnstone - Israel has launched a round of airstrikes on Iran which the western news media are falling all over themselves to falsely frame as “retaliatory” strikes against an unprovoked missile attack by Iran. As always, history begins the moment Israel is attacked, and all events leading up to that attack vanish from the official record as the imperial propaganda services churn out their headlines.“Israel Launches Airstrikes Against Iran in Retaliatory Attack,” reads a headline from The New York Times, subtitled “Israel had promised strikes after Iran fired several waves of ballistic missiles at Israel earlier this month.” “Israel has begun its retaliatory strikes on Iran, source says,” reads a headline from CNN.“Israel begins retaliatory strikes against Iran following missile barrage targeting Israelis,” reads a headline from Fox News.“Israel launches retaliatory attack against Iran,” reads a headline from Axios.“Live updates: Israel says it has launched retaliatory attacks in Iran,” reads a headline from NBC News.“Israel fires retaliatory strikes against Tehran over ballistic missile barrage,” reads a headline in The New York Post.“Israel Launches Strikes Against Iran In Response To Ballistic Missile Attacks,” reads a headline from Forbes. What the imperial propaganda services are omitting from their headlines is the fact that Iran’s ballistic missile strikes on Israel earlier this month were themselves a retaliatory attack against multiple Israeli assassination strikes. Israel had launched an attack on Iranian soil when it assassinated the leader of Hamas’ political wing Ismail Haniyeh in July, and then killed an Iranian military official in an assassination strike in Beirut.Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps released a statement at the time making it clear that the missile strikes were in response to the assassinations of Haniyeh and IRGC commander Abbas Nilforoushan, as well as Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah. This is all publicly available information. There is no nation on earth that would accept a foreign nation openly assassinating its military officials and conducting assassination strikes on its soil. Any nation would consider such aggressions an act of war, including — and especially — the United States.The western media are portraying Israel as the innocent victim who was attacked out of nowhere by Muslim barbarians because the western media are propaganda services for the western empire. Their job is to frame the US and its allies as virtuous freedom fighters defending their people against unprovoked attacks by evil villains, in order to manufacture consent for the murderous and tyrannical agendas of the US power alliance.The PR spin of these shameful press institutions is so indistinguishable from state propaganda that their messaging mirrors perfectly the position of the US government, who said in a statement following the Israeli airstrikes that they were an act of “self-defense” in retaliation for an Iranian attack.“We understand that Israel is conducting targeted strikes against military targets in Iran as an exercise of self-defense and in response to Iran’s ballistic missile attack against Israel on October 1,” said White House National Security Council spokesperson Sean Savett.We still don’t know whether this latest round of violence will spiral into the horrifying new war we’ve all been fearing as the worst-case nightmare scenario in the fallout from Israel’s murderous behavior this past year. While Axios and its Israeli intelligence insider Barak Ravid report that the US expects Iran to retaliate, as of this writing it appears that the fighting could stop here as long as Israel doesn’t keep attacking.“Both Iranian media, unofficial accounts, and those of aligned militias are downplaying the attacks,” the Quincy Institute’s Trita Parsi said on Twitter, adding the significant caveat: “HOWEVER, only the first phase of the attack has been completed. Whether the effort to downplay the strikes can survive the night and several phases of attacks, remains to be seen.”We’ll find out soon enough, I suppose.

Israel's Use of Human Shields in Gaza Sparks Calls for US Probe - (video) The Israel Defense Forces’ use of Palestinians – who are often handcuffed and forced to wear IDF uniforms – as human shields prompted the leading U.S. Muslim advocacy group on Monday to call on the Biden administration to investigate what experts say is a war crime by the No. 1 recipient of American military aid.International law prohibits the use of combatants or civilians as human shields. However, numerous reports have emerged during Israel’s yearlong assault on Gaza – which has left more than 152,000 Palestinians dead, wounded, or missing and is the subject of an International Criminal Court genocide case led by South Africa – of IDF troops forcing captured Palestinians, including children, to protect Israeli forces in life-threatening situations.“The State Department and the Department of Justice must investigate these credible charges of widespread and systematic human rights abuses by military forces that receive weapons paid for by American taxpayers and used against a civilian population,” Nihad Awad, the national executive director of the Council on American-Islamic Relations, said in a statement.“These abuses, and the obvious and open ethnic cleansing of Gaza, violate our nation’s laws,” Awad added. “The Biden administration’s complicity with this genocide stains our national reputation and will haunt our diplomats for generations to come when they are told to ‘remember Gaza’ whenever they bring up the subject of human rights.”International media outlets including Al Jazeera, the Israeli newspaperHaaretz, Britain’s The Guardian, and The New York Times have reported how Israel uses abducted Palestinian militants and civilians to proceed ahead of IDF troops in underground tunnels and buildings in order to protect their captors during life-threatening missions.In May, a report published by Defense for Children International-Palestine revealed that Palestinian minors are forced to walk ahead of IDF soldiers during dangerous raids. Subsequent Al Jazeera reports of a Palestinianstrapped to the hood of an Israeli combat vehicle to deter attack and Gazans being sent into buildings and tunnels to ensure the locations weren’t rigged with explosives sparked international outrage and initial IDF denials.“It’s hard to recognize them. They’re usually wearing Israeli army uniforms, many of them are in their 20s, and they’re always with Israeli soldiers of various ranks,” Haaretz reported in August. But upon closer examination, “you see that most of them are wearing sneakers, not army boots. And their hands are cuffed behind their backs and their faces are full of fear.” According to an Al Jazeera article published Sunday:By dressing Palestinian civilians in Israeli military uniforms and casting them as combatants the Israeli military purposefully conceals their vulnerability. It deploys them as shields not to deter Palestinian fighters from striking Israeli soldiers, but rather to draw their fire and thus reveal their location, allowing the Israeli troops to launch a counterattack and kill the fighters. The moment these human shields, masked as soldiers, are sent into the tunnels, they are transformed from vulnerable civilians into fodder.One 35-year-old Palestinian man, who declined to be identified by his real name for fear of his life, told The Guardian that “the Israeli soldiers put a GPS tracker on my hand and told me: ‘If you try to run away, we will shoot you. We will know where you are.'” “I was asked to go to knock on the doors of four houses and two schools and ask people to leave – women and children first and then the men,” he added. “At one of the schools, the situation was very dangerous. I shouted to everyone in the school to leave quietly, but at that moment there was heavy shooting by the Israeli army and I thought I was going to die.” Former IDF soldiers told The New York Times that IDF commanders instructed them that “the lives of terrorists were worth less than those of Israelis – even though officers often concluded their detainees did not belong to terrorist groups and later released them without charge.”

House Democrats urge Biden to push Israel for press freedom in Gaza - Dozens of House Democrats are pressing the Biden administration to get tougher on Israel when it comes to press freedoms in Gaza, warning that a lack of media access in the war-torn territory has stifled any push for accountability surrounding military operations that have killed tens of thousands of Palestinians. In a letter to President Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken, 65 House Democrats voiced their “deep concern” that Israel’s near blockade on foreign press access — combined with the inherent dangers facing the local journalists who are covering the conflict — have left the world with a dim understanding of what’s actually happening on the ground in Gaza, where international aid groups report a burgeoning humanitarian crisis. “The restrictions on media reporting have created significant challenges in obtaining accurate, verifiable information from Gaza, leading to increased skepticism about the limited reports that do emerge,” the lawmakers wrote earlier in the month. “At a time when reliable information is more critical than ever, the restrictions on foreign reporting undermine the very foundation of press freedom and democratic accountability.” The Democrats noted that international media groups have pressed for months to grant better access, only to have Israeli leaders rebuff those requests. The “few controlled [media] trips arranged by the Israeli military” are not enough to fill the void, the lawmakers wrote, particularly given the extraordinarily high casualty rate of reporters on the ground in Gaza. Of the 99 reporters killed worldwide in 2023, 72 were Palestinian journalists killed in Gaza by Israeli attacks, according to the Committee to Protect Journalists. “This effective ban on foreign reporting has placed an overwhelming burden on local journalists who are documenting the war they are living through,” the Democrats wrote. “Tragically, at least 130 journalists have lost their lives since the start of the war, and those who remain face conditions of extreme hardship and danger.” The lawmakers want Biden and Blinken “to take immediate action to advocate for unrestricted, independent media access to Gaza.”

Meta’s Israel Policy Chief Tried to Suppress Pro-Palestine Instagram Posts -- A FORMER SENIOR Israeli government official now working as Meta’s Israel policy chief personally pushed for the censorship of Instagram accounts belonging to Students for Justice in Palestine — a group that has played a leading role in organizing campus protests against Israel’s ongoing war in Gaza. Internal policy discussions reviewed by The Intercept show Jordana Cutler, Meta’s Israel & the Jewish Diaspora policy chief, used the company’s content escalation channels to flag for review at least four SJP posts, as well as other content expressing stances contrary to Israel’s foreign policy. When flagging SJP posts, Cutler repeatedly invoked Meta’s Dangerous Organizations and Individuals policy, which bars users from freely discussing a secret list of thousands of blacklisted entities. The Dangerous Organizations policy restricts “glorification” of those on the blacklist, but is supposed to allow for “social and political discourse” and “commentary.” It’s unclear if Cutler’s attempts to use Meta’s internal censorship system were successful; the company declined to say what ultimately happened to posts that Cutler flagged. It’s not Cutler’s decision whether flagged content is ultimately censored; another team is responsible for moderation decisions. But experts who spoke to The Intercept expressed alarm over a senior employee tasked with representing the interests of any government advocating for restricting user content that runs contrary to those interests.“It screams bias,” said Marwa Fatafta a policy adviser with the digital rights organization Access Now, which consults with Meta on contentmoderation issues. “It doesn’t really require that much intelligence to conclude what this person is up to.”Meta did not respond to a detailed list of questions about Cutler’s flagging of posts but argued that writing an article about her was “dangerous and irresponsible.” In a statement, spokesperson Dani Lever wrote “who flags a particular piece of content for review is irrelevant because our policies govern what is and isn’t allowed on platform. In fact, the expectation of many teams at Meta, including Public Policy, is to escalate content that might violate our policies when they become aware of it, and they do so across regions and issue areas. Whenever any piece of content is flagged, a separate team of experts then reviews whether it violates our policies.”Cutler did not respond to a request for comment; Meta declined a request to interview her.Lever said that The Intercept’s line of questioning “deliberately misrepresents how our processes work,” but declined to say how so.Cutler joined Meta, which owns Facebook and Instagram, in 2016 after years of high-level work in the Israeli government. Her resumé includes several years at the Israeli Embassy in Washington, D.C., where she worked in public affairs and as its chief of staff from 2013 to 2016, as well as a stint as a campaign adviser for the right-wing Likud party and nearly five years as an adviser to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Upon her hiring in 2016, Gilad Erdan, then minister of public security, strategic affairs and information, celebrated the move, saying it marked “an advance in dialogue between the State of Israel and Facebook.”In interviews about her job, Cutler has stated explicitly that she acts as a liaison between Meta and the Israeli government, whose perspectives she represents inside the company. In 2017, Cutler told the Israeli business outlet Calcalist that Facebook works “very closely with the cyber departments of the Ministry of Justice and the police and with other elements in the army and Shin Bet,” Israel’s domestic intelligence agency, on matters of content removal. “We are not the experts, they are in the field, this is their field.”A 2020 profile in the Jerusalem Post described Cutler as “Our woman at Facebook,” hired to “represent Israel’s interests on the largest and most active social network in the world.” In an interview with the paper, she explained, “My job is to represent Facebook to Israel, and represent Israel to Facebook.” In a follow-up interview for the Post’s YouTube channel, Cutler added that “inside the company, part of my job is to be a representative for the people of Israeli, [a] voice of the government for their concerns inside of our company.” Asked “Do they listen?” by the show’s host, Cutler replied, “Of course they do, and I think that’s one of the most exciting parts about my job, that I have an opportunity to really influence the way that we look at policy and explain things on the ground.”

Poll: Majority of Young Republicans Want Arms Embargo on Israel - A new poll for Data for Progress that surveyed Americans ages 18 to 29 who are likely to vote in the upcoming presidential election found the majority of young Republicans favor cutting off US military aid to Israel. According to the poll, 52% of young Republicans favor an arms embargo on Israel, while 36% oppose the idea, and 17% said they were unsure. The results signal that Israel is in trouble when it comes to long-term support from the US since Republicans are the more pro-Israel party.The poll also found that 62% of young Democrats were in favor of ending weapons shipments to Israel, while 21% opposed, and 17% said they were unsure.Factoring in independent and third-party voters, the poll found that 55% of all likely voters ages 18 to 29 support a US arms embargo on Israel, while 29% oppose the idea and 16% are undecided.The poll focused on how young Americans plan to vote this November, and the majority favored Vice President Kamala Harris over former President Donald Trump. Both candidates have vowed to continue arming Israel, which enables the genocidal slaughter of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. Previous Data for Progress polls have found that the majority of Americansfavor a permanent ceasefire in Gaza. The Biden administration has claimed it seeks a temporary truce but hasn’t put any real pressure on Israel to agree to one since the weapons shipments have continued to flow.

Former US State Department Official Says 30-Day Deadline for Israel To Let More Aid Into Gaza Is a PR Ploy - A former Arabic language spokeswoman for the State Department, who resigned over US support for the genocidal slaughter in Gaza, said in an interview that aired Wednesday that the Biden administration’s warning to Israel to allow more aid into Gaza within 30 days was nothing more than a pre-election public relations stunt.“I can tell you, as someone that worked within the State Department PR machine, that this, unfortunately, is a public relations ploy. I am sad to say it, but it’s the truth. It is conveniently 30 days, marking the time after the election,” Hala Rharrit told Democracy Now. “Also, it was conveniently leaked. It’s not typical for a statement like this to be leaked to the press, but it was.” The Biden administration sent the letter to Israeli officials on October 14 and suggested that if the demands aren’t met, US military aid could be affected. However, the letter didn’t explicitly threaten to cut off weapons shipments, and the State Department also declined to say if there would be any consequences for Israel.“The reality is that the State Department and the administration at this point is trying to give voters, especially those that are so concerned about the conflict in Gaza, some level of hope: ‘As long as you vote for us, after this 30 days, we’ll enforce the law, and we will make a change.’ This is absolutely a deception for the voters and for the American people,” Rharrit said.Rharrit said the US was violating multiple foreign assistance laws by providing military aid to Israel. “The reality is that we, as the United States government, are in violation of US law, of multiple of laws that your viewers can Google for themselves: the Leahy Law, the Foreign Assistance Act, the Arms Export Control Act. We continue to willfully violate laws so that we surge US military assistance to Israel,” she said.Discussing State Department spokesman Matt Miller, Rharrit called him a liar. “As to Matthew Miller, I’m going to be unequivocal: He’s lying. And I know, I realize it’s quite a forceful thing for me to say, but as a former diplomat, I can assure that,” she said.Rharrit pointed to the fact that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahuhas been the obstacle to a ceasefire deal, while the State Department has always blamed Hamas. “There have been ceasefire deals that Hamas has agreed to. I am not one to advocate for the terrorist organization whatsoever, and I want to be clear about that. But facts are facts. Hamas has repeatedly agreed to ceasefire deals. It is Benjamin Netanyahu who has reneged on those deals,” she said.Rharrit resigned from her post in the State Department back in April. She was a career diplomat, first entering the foreign service in 2006. She is one of 13 officials from US government agencies who have publicly resigned over President Biden’s full-throated support for the slaughter in Gaza.

CAIR Demands Biden Admin Act as UN Aid Official Says ‘Entire Population of North Gaza is at Risk of Dying’ - The Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), the nation’s largest Muslim civil rights and advocacy organization, today demanded that the Biden administration take concrete actions to stop Israeli’s genocide after the United Nation’s top humanitarian aid official said, “the entire population of North Gaza is at risk of dying.”

• Joyce Msuya, Acting Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator said: “What Israeli forces are doing in besieged North Gaza cannot be allowed to continue. Hospitals have been hit and health workers have been detained. Shelters have been emptied and burned down. First responders have been prevented from saving people from under the rubble. Families have been separated and men and boys are being taken away by the truckload. Hundreds of Palestinians have reportedly been killed. Tens of thousands have been forced to flee yet again.”
• Save the Children’s Alexandra Saieh said: “No military goal could justify the mass-scale slaughter of civilians that we see in Gaza now every single day.”
• UN human rights chief Volker Türk said: “As we speak, the Israeli military is subjecting an entire population to bombing, siege and risk of starvation.”

Yesterday, CAIR said the Israeli government’s latest slaughter of babies and children in Gaza should “shock the conscience” of Biden administration officials supporting the genocide in Gaza.Israel has already slaughtered almost 43,000 people in Gaza, mostly women and children, and has destroyed most of the civilian infrastructure and forcibly displaced almost all of the civilian population, and imposed forced starvation. In a statement, CAIR National Executive Director Nihad Awad said:“The Biden administration must listen to those who actually care about the systematic extermination of an entire population using American taxpayer-funded weapons and with the unceasing and uncritical support of administration officials who do not seem to care about the far-right Israeli government’s violations of U.S. and international law. This administration’s support for and complicity with genocide must end and the Palestinian people must be acknowledged as human beings worthy of life and dignity.” Last week, CAIR condemned the latest massacres by the far-right Israeli government in Gaza and Lebanon and also condemned reports that Israeli forces are putting numbers on detained Palestinian men. The Washington, D.C., based Muslim civil rights organization also condemned the shipment of weapons to Israel by the United States and United Kingdom through an air bridge in which over 6,000 aircraft were used in a year to carry out the genocide.Earlier last week, CAIR called on the Biden administration to address whether the Israeli government’s reported plan for U.S. intelligence operatives and mercenaries to take control of aid distribution in Gaza and set up mass, walled-off internment camps for Palestinians is true. The reported use of American personal in these camps comes after Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu rejected a U.S. request to publicly repudiated the so-called “General’s Plan” in which every human being left in northern Gaza would be either starved or killed.

Harris Campaign Says She Denies Israel Is Committing Genocide in Gaza - Vice President Kamala Harris’s presidential campaign has clarified that she does not believe Israel is committing genocide in Gaza after an incident at a rally suggested that she did.At a campaign event at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, a protester interrupted Harris and said she invested “billions of dollars in genocide” and pressed her about the massive child casualties in Gaza, repeatedly describing the Israeli onslaught as a genocide.Addressing the students, Harris said, “What he’s talking about, it’s real. That’s not the subject that I came to discuss today, but it’s real, and I respect his voice.”A spokesperson for Harris’s campaign said Sunday that the comments made by the protester “don’t reflect the position of the Biden-Harris administration or the vice president’s stance.”The spokesperson added that Harris “didn’t agree with defining the war as a genocide, and she has not expressed such a stance in the past, as this is not her position.”The International Court of Justice (ICJ) has ruled that its “plausible” Israel is committing genocide against the Palestinian population of Gaza. There have been massive civilian casualties in the onslaught, and Israeli forces have purposely targeted children.A group of 99 American healthcare workers who volunteered in Gaza said in an open letter to Harris and President Biden that each one of them “treated pre-teen children who were shot in the head or chest on a regular or even a daily basis.” The American healthcare workers also estimated that over 118,000 Palestinians had been killed in Gaza, or about 5% of the population. Despite the mass slaughter, the Biden administration maintains Israel is not committing genocide since that would mean US officials are supporting genocide.

In CNN town hall, Harris refuses to place conditions on Israeli military support, pledges to work with Republicans on border wall - With the US election less than two weeks away and early voting taking place in a majority of states, the Democratic nominee for president, Vice President Kamala Harris, took part in a CNN Town Hall Wednesday night hosted by Anderson Cooper in Delaware County, Pennsylvania. According to a tracker maintained by the AP, some 1.1 million people have already voted in Pennsylvania, one of a handful of “battleground” states that will decide the election. In total, the AP estimates that some 25.7 million early ballots have already been cast this election.Major polling surveys published in the last week indicate that the race has tightened significantly, with Trump leading in some nationwide polls. CNBC, the Wall Street Journal and the HarrisX/Forbes all released polls in the last week that found Trump leading by two points. This is within the margin of error in each poll but an improvement for Trump over previous surveys.That the race is close at all is an indictment of the Democratic Party, which has proven incapable and opposed to anything that addresses the social crisis in the United States, while focused on the escalation of war abroad.Wednesday’s town hall was originally supposed to be the second debate between Harris and former President Donald Trump, but the latter refused to participate. This did not prevent Trump’s far-right program from dominating the event, as Harris and the Democrats continue to adopt Trump’s fascistic anti-immigrant policies while defending the genocide in Gaza.Wednesday’s event began with Harris ceding the “fight for democracy” to un-elected generals that served in Trump’s administration. She recapped former White House Chief of Staff John Kelly’s recent remarks characterizing Trump as a fascist who yearned for “the kind of generals” Hitler had, by which Trump means officers loyal to him and willing to carry out any order, no matter how illegal. Cooper noted that in Harris’s response that she quoted what Kelly had said, but did she herself believe Trump was a fascist? Harris replied: Yes, I do. Yes, I do. And I also believe the people that know him best on this subject should be trusted. Career people ... highest roles in national security, generals in our military.Prior to and as the coup unfolded on January 6, the Democrats refused to appeal to the broader population to defend democratic rights. Their entire orientation, then and now, is to the military and the intelligence agencies.Harris went on to tout the immense support she has received in her campaign from Republicans, including war criminals that have served in previous Republican administrations stretching back to Ronald Reagan. Harris boasted:I traveled this state and others with Liz Cheney, former Congress-member who was a very high-ranking Republican. She has endorsed me; her father the former vice president of the United States, Dick Cheney, is voting for me. Over 400 members of, previous members of the, the administration from Ronald Reagan, to both Presidents Bush, to Donald Trump even, have endorsed my candidacy.These Republicans are not supporting Harris because she will defend “democracy” but because they think she will defend the interests of American imperialism more effectively than the aspiring dictator Trump.

The West's Support for Israel's Genocide Is Destroying the World as We Know It - The horrifying images from Gaza last week of fire consuming a Palestinian teenager confined to his hospital bed with an intravenous drip may come to define Israel’s genocide, as completely as earlier images of human depravity have defined the world. The flames that burned alive 19-year-old Shaaban al-Dalou, along with his mother and two others, in a tent on the grounds of al-Aqsa Hospital in Deir al-Balah were almost certainly unleashed by US- or German-supplied missiles, fired by Israeli pilots. Dalou was in the tent recovering from an Israeli air strike a week earlier on Deir al-Balah that had killed 26 people. He was already malnourished and immunocompromised from many months of an Israeli blockade, which has denied the entry of food and aid into Gaza. Dalou’s two sisters, father and younger brother all sustained severe burns from the fire caused by the strike. His 10-year-old brother succumbed to his wounds days later. The victims in Deir al-Balah were charred into oblivion – and with them the “rules-based international order” the West helped establish to prevent a repeat of the horrors of the Second World War. The year-long genocide in Gaza is entirely a western co-production. The US and Europe send the weapons, provide the diplomatic cover, orchestrate support from their pliant state- and billionaire-owned media, and stifle all domestic dissent.The modern era of international humanitarian law that the West proclaimed, as well as the institutions the West championed to uphold it, are going up in flames.The parties unravelling – week after week, month after month – the rules that kept in check the dangers of a third world war are not the so-called “terrorists”. It’s not Hamas, Hezbollah, al-Qaeda or the Islamic State. It’s not even Iran, Russia or China. It is the West. It is Washington and its allies. They are the arsonists.The humanitarian catastrophe Israel has engineered in Gaza has no precedent in the modern era. Israel’s genocide is not just pitiless, like so many other wars. It has been brazen, celebratory even, in its orgy of destruction. The bombs strike the very “safe zones” Israel declares. They hit hospitals, schools serving as shelters for displaced families, bakeries, mosques and churches.There is nothing secret about Israel’s long starvation of Gaza’s “human animals”: 2.3 million people, or however many of them are still alive after the enclave lost the capacity to count its dead months ago.Israel is now doing to Gaza precisely what it threatened to do long before it was able to exploit the pretext of 7 October. It is pummelling the enclave to send it “back to the Stone Age”. It is not Hamas that is being eliminated in Gaza. It is the fundamentals of humanitarian law: the principle of “distinction” between combatants and non-combatants, and the principle of “proportionality” in weighing military advantage against the endangerment of civilians. All of this is happening out in the open, concealed only by the refusal of western politicians and media to admit what everyone else can see. What Israel has made clear, supported by western capitals, is that there is no safe place, not even for those recovering in a hospital bed from Israel’s earlier atrocities. There are no “non-combatants”, no civilians. There are no rules. Everyone is a target. It is only because Israel knows it has left the international order in tatters, and that Washington is fully on board, that it dares to carry out its genocide in Gaza to the bitter end.Barely mentioned in the western establishment media has been Israel’s so-called “Generals’ Plan”: turning an area Israel has declared as “northern Gaza” into an official, industrial-scale extermination camp. The plan, published last month by a group of influential military reservists, involves giving some 400,000 Palestinians in northern Gaza a week to flee southwards. Anyone left will be starved to death or executed as a “Hamas terrorist”. Frustrated by Israel’s failure to defeat Hamas, these senior officers want to erase any last traces of protections for civilians. The question left unanswered is what happens to southern Gaza after the north has been ethnically cleansed. All the evidence so far suggests that anything done to northern Gaza will arrive soon enough in the south.

We Really Are The Bad Guys And This Really Is The Evil Empire -Caitlin Johnstone - It takes some learning and insight to understand that western civilization really is the absolute worst. There can be a kind of hipster outsider tendency to judge your own society more harshly than you do others, and at first glance it can look like that’s what’s going on when you see western critics of the western empire denouncing the criminality of their own government and its allies much more harshly than governments like Russia, China or Iran. It’s not until you’ve done a fair bit of research that you go, wait, okay no, we are actually quantifiably far more destructive than any other power structure on earth, by an extremely massive margin. We really are the bad guys. We really are the evil empire, and everyone slamming our side as murderous monsters are absolutely correct.Whenever I say this I get westerners going “Oh yeah well I’d much rather live here then over there” or “Oh well if it’s so bad here then why don’t you go live over there?”, but the fact that they immediately start babbling about where they’d prefer to live is just a symptom of how sick and twisted this civilization is. They’re so cognitively and emotionally divorced from the violence and tyranny their government is inflicting upon the global south that they think the question of which countries are worse than others is a question of how pleasant it would be for them personally to live in. It’s like yes asshole, it’s very nice to be living in the imperial core that’s receiving the benefits of mass murder and imperialist extraction, and it’s less nice to live in the countries where the murder and extraction is happening. That’s the entire fucking point here.It can be nice to live in the western world, but the western world is not nice. Ours is the most savage and thuggish civilization on this planet, and it’s not even close.The Only Good Thing About This Nightmare Is That It's Exposing The Monsters For Who They Are -Caitlin Johnstone -- A really extraordinary moment occurred on the CNN “town hall” with Vice President Kamala Harris on Wednesday.Asked by an audience member what she would do to end the slaughter of Palestinians by US-sponsored bombs, Harris delivered her usual canned answer about how “far too many” Palestinians have died and the need for a two-state solution, after which host Anderson Cooper asked a follow-up question.“What do you say to voters who are thinking about supporting a third-party candidate, or staying on the couch, not voting at all because of this issue?” Cooper asked.What followed was an absolutely jaw-dropping answer from the vice president. In essence she says that people who have strong feelings about the genocide in Gaza need to get over it and vote for her anyway if they want abortions and affordable groceries, because she supports the genocide and that’s not going to change. “Listen, I am not going to deny the strong feelings that people have,” Harrissaid. “I don’t know that anyone who has seen the images who would not have strong feelings about what has happened, much less those who have relatives, who have died and been killed. And I and I know people and I’ve talked with people, so I appreciate that.”“But I also do know that for many people who care about this issue, they also care about bringing down the price of groceries,” Harris continued. “They also care about our democracy and not having a president of the United States who admires dictators and is a fascist. They also care about the fact that we need practical, common-sense solutions from a leader who is willing to work across the aisle on behalf of the American people and not themselves. They want a president who cares about a fundamental freedom to make decisions about your own body, understanding that we’re not trying to change anyone’s belief, but let’s not have the government telling women what to do with their body.”Which is just wild. I mean, technically she’s not saying anything different from what liberals have been shouting for months at Americans who oppose the Gaza genocide, but she’s not supposed to say that! She’s not supposed to come right out and admit that she’s a genocidal monster and tough shit if you don’t like it because the other candidate is the greater evil. That’s normally the sort of disgusting manipulation you let other people do for you while pretending to be a good person. The only positive thing coming out of this nightmare is that it’s exposing the real monsters for who they are.More and more people are seeing that the US government is much too evil to be allowed to rule the world.More and more people are seeing that the state of Israel is much too evil to be allowed to continue to exist in its present iteration.More and more people are seeing that the western press are propaganda services for the US power alliance and should never be trusted.More and more people are seeing that the Democratic Party exists solely to protect the murderous and corrupt oligarchic status quo of the US empire and not to promote the interests of ordinary human beings.More and more people are seeing that western liberalism is just a more photogenic version of fascism.When you’ve got a leading presidential candidate standing in front of the nation saying that yes she will continue an active genocide but you’d better vote for her anyway if you want abortions and affordable groceries, that shows people something about the kind of nation they live in that you could never get across to them by sheer argumentation.When you’ve got evidence of mass atrocities entering people’s social media feeds on a daily basis while the entire political-media class tells them this is fine and normal, that communicates a message which would be hard to receive in words alone. There is so very, very little to say about this horror that is remotely positive. But it is opening eyes. And enough open eyes is all that’s required to change the world.

Gaza WILL Get Worse Under Trump. It'll Also Get Worse Under Harris. Caitlin Johnstone -Notes From The Edge Of The Narrative Matrix - The thing about people who argue that Gaza will get worse if Trump wins is that they’re technically not wrong: Gaza will get worse if Trump wins. But it will also get worse if Harris wins. Know how I know? Because it’s been getting worse and worse in Gaza for a whole year, and both Trump and Harris have pledged to continue unconditionally supporting the state that’s making it worse and worse.The other day a Muslim streamer named Frogan enraged every western liberal on earth by making the very correct and obvious observation that the US military is a force of immense evil in our world and the people who work for the US military directly perpetrate those immense evils. (video) She’s right. If you are offended by part of the things she said you’re a bootlicker and a loser.I’m an avowed socialist but I have more in common with a US libertarian who opposes the Gaza genocide than with any lefty I agree with about every issue besides Palestine. If you get Gaza right you’re a better person than someone who gets it wrong, even if the rest of your politics are ridiculous and the rest of their politics are solid.

Trump claims Harris ‘guaranteed’ to get US into World War III - Former President Trump claimed that Vice President Harris is “guaranteed” to get the United States into World War III if she is elected president, continuing intense rhetoric common throughout the 2024 campaign. Trump spoke at a rally in the key battleground state of Pennsylvania on Saturday, arguing that Harris would be incompetent at dealing with other country’s leaders like Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin. “To make her president would be to gamble with the lives of millions of people,” he said. “She would get us into a World War III guaranteed because she is too grossly incompetent to do the job.” Trump continued that people’s “sons and daughters will end up getting drafted to go fight for a war in a country that you’ve never heard of.” Later in the speech, Trump vowed that he would avoid World War III even as the country has “never been so close” to it occurring. Trump also repeated past arguments that conflicts like the one stemming from Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel would not have happened if he had been president. The former president’s remarks come after House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) released a letter on Friday denouncing Harris’s calling Trump a “fascist,” a term that Trump himself has used for Harris. Johnson and McConnell said, “The Democratic nominee for President of the United States has only fanned the flames beneath a boiling cauldron of political animus. Her most recent and most reckless invocations of the darkest evil of the 20th century seem to dare it to boil over.” “Labeling a political opponent as a ‘fascist’ risks inviting yet another would-be assassin to try robbing voters of their choice before Election Day,” they said, referencing the two assassination attempts on Trump earlier this year. Harris had previously not used the word fascist to describe Trump but said she believed he is one at the CNN town hall she participated in on Wednesday. The answer came in response to a question about Trump’s former chief of staff John Kelly, saying Trump “certainly falls into the general definition of fascist.”

Trump: Saudi crown prince ‘a great guy’ - Former President Trump says the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who faces unrelenting criticism over his government’s human rights record, is a “great guy.”“I think it’s fine right now,” Trump said of the U.S.-Saudi Arabia relationship in a recent interview with Al Arabiya. “When I was president, it was great with capital letters. G-R-E-A-T, great.”“And so much respect for the king, so much respect for Mohammed, who is doing great. I mean, he’s really a visionary. He’s done things that nobody else would have even thought about,” he continued.In the interview with Al Arabiya’s Washington Bureau Chief Nadia Bilbassy-Charters, Trump later added that the crown prince is a “great guy” who is “respected all over the world.”Earlier this year, the Trump Organization announced it would be building a Trump Tower building in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The building is the Trump Organization’s first development in the country and is in partnership with a Saudi-owned developer. The Saudi government has also invested $2 billion with Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner. The crown prince said last year that Kushner’s private equity fund would not be affected by a second Trump term.

ACLU Leadership Rejects Staff Demands to Condemn U.S. Role in Israel’s Gaza War - STAFFERS AT THE American Civil Liberties Union began to circulate an internal petition earlier this year urging its leadership to take a public stance against the U.S. support for Israel’s war in Gaza and Israel’s illegal occupation of Palestinian territories. The petition — which also calls on the ACLU to disclose and divest potential investments in Israel and oppose U.S. military aid to Israel — cites previous moments in history when the ACLU condemned international events, such as its opposition to the Vietnam War and South African apartheid. As of early October, 681 staffers from across the free speech organization’s national office and local chapters had signed on to support the petition, about one-third of its overall staff. In early October, the ACLU’s national board of directors convened to vote on the petition. The governing body rejected the staffers’ calls with a 50-4 vote and one abstention, according to documents obtained by The Intercept. This week, after continued requests from staffers, ACLU leadership also rejected requests for a town hall meeting where staffers could hear leaders’ reasons for dismissing the petition. ACLU leadership explained its rejection to staff in a memo, sent by Board President Deborah Archer and Executive Director Anthony Romero, stating that while the organization is committed to fighting for the free speech rights of those who are protesting around the war in Gaza, “a position on the war is not needed to carry out this essential domestic work.” Several months before the vote, Romero had recommended against the petition, stating that “weighing in on this international matter is beyond the ACLU’s remit,” the memo said. Archer and Romero also stated that the ACLU does not have “an overall framework or guiding principle for deciding which conflicts or countries to engage in a consistent or justifiable manner” around the issue of human rights violations. “The ACLU lacks expertise and staff dedicated to this region or conflict, and does not have a staff presence in the region,” the memo continued. The Intercept also obtained a document highlighting executive leaders’ recommendations against the petition. The document includes statements from board members, executive directors of local ACLU affiliates, and a breakdown of the ACLU’s investments in Israeli companies. A key part of the staff petition was the demand for divestment from “any company that profits from the Israeli government’s human rights violations — including but not limited to companies providing offensive weaponry, policing, and surveillance technology,” following the model set during the South African divestment movement.

Austin Visits Ukraine, Announces New $400 Million Weapons Package - Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin made an unannounced visit to Ukraine on Monday and announced a new $400 million weapons package.The Pentagon said that during the visit, Austin will “meet with Ukrainian leadership and underscore the US commitment to providing Ukraine with the security assistance it needs to defend itself from Russian aggression on the battlefield.”Austin’s visit comes as Russian forces are taking back territory in Russia’s Kursk Oblast and continuing to make gains in eastern Ukraine. In the face of these advances, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has unveiled his so-called “Victory Plan,” which is essentially a list of demands for more military aid from his Western backers.Zelensky is also asking for NATO to support long-range strikes inside Russian territory and for NATO countries to help shoot down Russian missiles and drones over Ukraine. But so far, those requests, which risk nuclear war, have been rejected by the US and NATO.Despite no clear path for a Ukrainian victory, the US continues to fuel the proxy war with fresh weapons shipments. The $400 million arms package Austin announced will be provided through the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), which allows the US to send weapons straight from US military stockpiles.The Pentagon said in a press release that the package includes:

• Ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS)
• 155mm and 105mm artillery ammunition
• 60mm, 81mm, and 120mm mortar systems and rounds
• Tube-launched, Optically tracked, Wire-guided (TOW) missiles
• Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems
• M113 Armored Personnel Carriers
• Satellite communication equipment
• Small arms and ammunition
• Grenades and training equipment
• Demolitions equipment and munitions
• Equipment to protect critical national infrastructure
• Spare parts, ancillary equipment, services, training, and transportation

The Pentagon also released a fact sheet that said the US has committed $59.5 billion in weapons for Ukraine since Russia invaded on February 24, 2022. Including other types of aid, the proxy war has cost US taxpayers at least $186 billion so far.

Pentagon Chief Says He Can't Confirm Claims About North Korean Troops Preparing to Fight in Ukraine - Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said Saturday that he couldn’t confirm reports about North Korean troops being sent to Russia to prepare for fighting in Ukraine, a narrative being pushed hard by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as he’s looking for more support from the West.“I’ve seen those reports in the media. I can’t confirm those reports at this point in time. This is something that we will certainly continue to investigate,” Austin said.A day earlier, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said the alliance had no evidence that North Korean troops were already fighting on the ground in Ukraine. “At this moment, our official position is that we cannot confirm reports that North Koreans are actively now as soldiers engaged in the war effort,” he said.South Korea’s spy agency claimed in a statement on Friday that North Korea sent 1,500 special operations soldiers to eastern Russia to support the war in Ukraine. Seoul cited satellite images that purported to show a Russian ship moving North Korean soldiers and other images that showed troop formations inside eastern Russia.The South Korean statement was followed by a video published by Ukraine that purported to show North Korean troops receiving Russian military equipment at a training camp in Russia’s eastern Primorye region, which shares a small border with North Korea. But the video released by Ukraine has not been independently verified, and even if it showed what the Ukrainians claimed, it would not be evidence that the North Korean soldiers were preparing to fight for Russia. Zelensky has claimed without evidence that North Korea is preparing to deploy 10,000 troops to join the Russian war effort, a deployment he said would be “the first step to a World War.” In his nightly address on Sunday, Zelensky said he expected Ukraine’s Western backers to have a “strong” response to his claims about North Korean troops.“Now we have clear evidence that people are being supplied to Russia from North Korea, and these are not just workers for industries, but also military personnel. And we expect a normal, honest, strong reaction from our partners to this. In fact, this is another state joining the war against Ukraine,” Zelensky said.

Pentagon Now Says North Korean Troops Are Mustering In Russia - For the first time of the war, the Pentagon has assessed that North Korean troops appear to be in Russia. "We are seeing evidence that there are North Korean troops that have, that have gone to… Russia," Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin told reporters in Rome on Wednesday. "What exactly they’re doing, left to be seen."He also noted that "Our analysts... continue to look at this" - in reference to the intelligence community. "If they’re co-belligerents, if their intention is to participate in this war on Russia’s behalf, that is a very, very serious issue," he said of the North Koreans. "It will have impacts, not only in Europe. It will also impact things in the Indo-Pacific as well." The Ukrainian government has been loudly alleging that North Korean troops are already fighting Ukrainian forces in the east of the country. The Pentagon chief strongly suggested that this is a sign of growing Russian weakness and manpower problems.The Washington Post wrote, "Austin said it was unclear what North Korea would get out of the deployment. But he said it suggested significant weaknesses in the military capability of Russia, which has had to tap allies Iran and North Korea for aid in its war against Ukraine.""This is an indication that he may be even in more trouble than most people realize," Austin emphasized in reference to Russian President Vladimir Putin. This new US 'confirmation' marks a reversal of sorts. As recently as the start of this week the Pentagon refused to back Ukrainian and South Korean spy agency claims that some 10,000 North Korean troops are headed into the conflict.

Key Republican: US should consider ‘direct military action’ if North Korean troops enter Ukraine -House Intelligence Committee Chair Mike Turner (R-Ohio) on Wednesday said the U.S. should consider taking “direct military action” if North Korean troops enter the war in Ukraine, following the revelation that thousands of soldiers from the isolated country are in Russia. The White House said earlier Wednesday that Washington had assessed at least 3,000 North Korean troops are undergoing training at military bases in eastern Russia, with fears they will eventually be sent to Ukraine to fight alongside Kremlin forces. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Tuesday the U.S. has seen evidence that North Korean troops were in the former Soviet state. “The Biden-Harris Administration must make clear that North Korean troops entering this conflict are a red line for the United States,” Turner said in a statement. “If North Korean troops were to invade Ukraine’s sovereign territory, the United States needs to seriously consider taking direct military action against the North Korean troops,” he added. Between early to mid-October, North Korea moved at least 3,000 soldiers into eastern Russia via ships from the Wonsan region in North Korea to the eastern Russian city of Vladivostok, White House national security spokesperson John Kirby told reporters. The soldiers then traveled onward to three military sites in eastern Russia where they are undergoing basic combat training, Kirby said. “We do not yet know whether these soldiers will enter into combat alongside the Russian military, but this is certainly a highly concerning probability,” he said. He added that after completing training, the soldiers could travel to western Russia and then engage in combat against the Ukrainian military, a development that would “demonstrate Russia’s growing desperation in its war against Ukraine.” The U.S. has briefed the Ukrainian government on the situation, to include the implications of such a move and how the U.S. might respond, according to Kirby. He also gave a stark warning that should the North Korean troops be employed against Ukraine, “they will become legitimate military targets.” “If they do deploy to fight against Ukraine, they’re fair game, they’re fair targets, and the Ukrainian military will defend themselves against North Korean soldiers the same way they’re defending themselves against Russian soldiers,” he said. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky last week warned that North Korea was sending close to 10,000 troops to Ukraine to fight for Russian forces. Speaking in Brussels, Belgium, Zelensky said Pyongyang had already sent tactical personnel and officers to his country. Reports of the North Korean troops on the brink of possibly entering the fight have ignited calls for the U.S. to lift restrictions on the use of long-range weapons given to Ukraine, with Zelensky repeatedly calling on Washington to do so. “I have long challenged the Biden-Harris Administration’s unwise position on restricting Ukraine’s use of U.S. weapons against targets within Russian territory,” Turner said in his statement. “If North Korean troops attack Ukraine from Russian territory, Ukraine should be permitted to use American weapons to respond.” Asked why the U.S. would not greenlight long-range missiles for Ukraine, Kirby replied that it is still up in the air whether the North Korean soldiers would be deployed into combat, and it was too early to tell the kind of impact they would have on the battlefield. “We don’t know what they’re going to do, we don’t know if they’re going to deploy into combat or not, we don’t know if they do at what strength,” he said, adding that the U.S. will monitor the situation closely and continue to surge security assistance to Kyiv.

House Intel Chief Says US Must Consider 'Direct Military Action' If North Korean Troops Fight in Ukraine - Rep. Mike Turner (R-OH), the chair of the House Intelligence Committee, has called for the US to consider “direct military action” if North Korean troops are sent to fight in Ukraine. “If North Korean troops were to invade Ukraine’s sovereign territory, the United States needs to seriously consider taking direct military action against the North Korean troops,” Turner wrote on X.The Ohio congressman also said if North Korean troops attack Ukraine from Russian territory, the US should support long-range Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory using NATO-provided missiles, which Russia has made clear risks nuclear war.“I have long challenged the Biden-Harris Administration’s unwise position on restricting Ukraine’s use of US weapons against targets within Russian territory,” Turner said. “If North Korean troops attack Ukraine from Russian territory, Ukraine should be permitted to use American weapons to respond.”Turner’s comments come after Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said there was “evidence” of North Korean troops being sent to eastern Russia. North Korea has denied that it sent troops to Russia, and when asked about the allegations on Thursday, Russia’s envoy to South Korea said he couldn’t confirm the reports.“I cannot confirm these reports. To my mind, what has been provided as evidence of this is not convincing,” said Russian Ambassador Georgy Zinovyev. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has claimed that about 10,000 North Korean troops could enter the war. He is hyping up the threat to push the US and NATO to adopt his so-called “victory plan,” which calls for significant escalations in military support, including long-range strikes on Russian territory with NATO missiles and NATO countries shooting down Russian missiles and drones over Ukrainian territory.

Enormous fire rips through US military base in South Korea - A massive fire has reportedly ripped through a warehouse at a United States military base in South Korea. The blaze broke out at 6:31 p.m. KST on Thursday at the U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) Busan base, according to The Korea Times. Video shows a giant plume of black smoke rising from the enormous flames as it burns through the building. 'U.S. Army Garrison Daegu has activated mutual aid agreements with the Busan Fire Dept. in response to a warehouse fire of unknown origin at the Busan Storage Center,' the USFK said. 'The warehouse is under renovation and empty, and was not occupied when the fire broke out.' USAG Daegu Public Affairs Officer Phil Molter told DailyMail.com the blaze is fully contained and they are putting out small spot fires. Over 160 personnel and 51 pieces of fire equipment were enlisted to put out the fire. Busan fire officials raised their response to a Level 2 at 7:55 p.m. KST which allowed them to get aide from up to 11 nearby fire stations. The USFK was established to help deter aggression in Northeast Asia and defend South Korea. Tensions with North Korea are at their highest point in years, with the pace of Kim Jong Un's weapons programs intensifying, despite heavy international sanctions. South Korea's military said the USS Vermont, a nuclear-powered and fast-attack submarine, arrived at the southeastern South Korean port city of Busan on September 23 to take on supplies and allow its crew to rest.

US, Canadian Warships Sail Through the Taiwan Strait - The US and Canada each sent a warship through the Taiwan Strait on Sunday in a joint operation that came less than a week after the Chinese military conducted blockade drills around the island.The US Navy’s Seventh Fleet said the guided-missile destroyer USS Higgins and the Canadian frigate HMCS Vancouver made the transit. The US framed the operation as “routine,” but Beijing always views US military activity in the sensitive waterway as a provocation.China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) said the US and Canadian warships “disturbed the situation and undermined peace and stability.” Col. Li Xi, a spokesman for the PLA’s Eastern Theater Command, said Chinese forces monitored the ships throughout the transit.The US frequently sails warships through the Taiwan Strait and has been encouraging its Western allies to join in on the provocations. Last month, German warships sailed through the sensitive waterway for the first time since 2002, which drew sharp condemnation from China.On October 14, the PLA conducted drills simulating a blockade around Taiwan in response to a speech by Taiwanese President William Lai Ching-te, where he said Taiwan, officially known as the Republic of China, was not “subordinate” to mainland China, known as the People’s Republic of China.The Chinese military also made clear the drills were a warning to the US over its increasing support for Taiwan. “Relevant parties should cease supporting ‘Taiwan independence’ and stop undermining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait,” Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman Wu Qian said in a statement on the exercises. China conducted its first blockade drill around Taiwan in August 2022 in response to then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) making a provocative visit to the island despite major protests from Beijing.The US has ignored China’s concerns about Taiwan and continues to increase military and diplomatic support for the island. In September, President Biden approved a $567 million arms package for Taiwan.The US military is also openly planning for a war with China over Taiwan despite the risk of any direct US-China war turning nuclear. The US Navy recently unveiled a plan to prepare its forces for war with China by 2027.

Bipartisan House members call for tighter sanctions on oil field servicers in Russia - A bipartisan coalition of more than 50 congressional representatives called on the Biden administration to tighten sanctions on Russian oil and specifically address a major U.S. oil field servicer’s presence in Russia. In the letter, led by Reps. Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas) and Jake Auchincloss (D-Mass.), the members asked Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Secretary of State Antony Blinken to restrict activity by the firm SLB (aka Schlumberger) in Russia after the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Since the invasion, they wrote, SLB has imported millions of dollars worth of equipment into Russia, including hydraulic packers and drilling tools. At least $3 million of the equipment SLB has imported into Russia in the final five months of 2023 falls into categories that should be subject to international controls if exported from the U.S. or Europe, they wrote. “This U.S.-based company is keeping Vladimir Putin’s war machine well-oiled with financing for the barbaric invasion of Ukraine. We urge you to continue supporting our Ukrainian allies by pursuing more rigorous oil sanctions to effectively restrict Putin’s profits,” the members wrote. “In concert with our allies in the [Group of Seven], we must tighten oil sanctions to prevent the billions in revenue currently flowing into the Kremlin’s budget. Permitting Western investment in the oil and gas sector strengthens Russia’s wartime economy and its military strength.” The representatives asked Yellen and Blinken to clarify whether SLB is aware of “where the guard rails are” regarding sanctions, as a State Department official has reportedly said it is. They also questioned whether the current sanctions program is effective in its goals if it allows an arrangement where American companies can import equipment into Russia from third nations, and they requested a list of all approved exceptions to American sanctions.

F-35s Have Failed to Hit Readiness Marks for Six Years, GAO Says - All versions of the F-35, the world’s costliest weapons program, have failed to meet minimum combat readiness rates for six straight years, according to the watchdog agency for Congress. That’s despite the Army, Navy and Marine Corps spending $12 billion, or about 21%, of $57.2 billion for aircraft operations and maintenance appropriated by Congress during that time on the fighter jet built by Lockheed Martin Corp., according to a Government Accountability Office tally released Monday.

Navy fires top commanders of ship repair facility in Japan- The Navy over the weekend fired both the commanding and executive officers of a U.S. naval ship repair facility in Yokosuka, Japan, citing “a loss of confidence in their ability to command,” according to a service statement. Capt. Zaldy Valenzuela and Cmdr. Art Palalay on Sunday were relieved of their duties as commanding officer and executive officer, respectively, at the U.S. Naval Ship Repair Facility and Japan Regional Maintenance Center (SRF-JRMC). Capt. Dan Lannamann, former commanding officer of the Mid-Atlantic Regional Maintenance Center in Norfolk, Va., has temporarily taken over as head of the facility, and Cmdr. Timothy Emge, the center’s operations officer, has assumed the position of executive officer until a permanent replacement is selected. “The Navy holds commanding officers and others in authority to the highest standards,” the statement noted. “Naval leaders are entrusted with significant responsibilities to their Sailors and commands.” The release did not include further details as to why the two officers were fired, as the Navy rarely reveals why it makes such decisions other than noting a “loss of confidence.” The Navy this year has had a number of high-profile dismissals, including the SEAL commodore for Navy Special Warfare Group Eight, fired in March; the removal of the commanding officer of the USS Ohio guided missile submarine that same month; the Feb. 6 firing of the head of the Japan-based Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Howard; and the commanding officer of the submarine USS Georgia’s blue crew, relieved in January.

Trump bashes FEMA, NC governor as he tours Helene storm damage -Former President Trump on Monday attacked the federal response to Hurricane Helene by repeating debunked claims about funding and bashed North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D) during a stop in storm-ravaged Asheville, N.C. Trump met with local officials and viewed damage from Hurricane Helene ahead of a pair of campaign events in the Tar Heel State. The former president praised the enthusiasm of voters despite the storm damage amid sizable early turnout, but he also swiped at his political opponents over the response to Helene.Trump told reporters he would be in favor of Congress returning early from recess to approve more disaster response funding for the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).“You know, in theory they’re supposed to have it, but they spent a lot of money on bringing illegal migrants, people that came into our country illegally, and taking them in and all of the money they spent. Numbers that nobody can even believe. So they don’t have any money for people that live here,” Trump said, calling FEMA’s response “a disgrace.”The White House and local officials in affected areas have for weeks pushed back on similar claims from Trump and his allies, making clear that FEMA’s disaster relief fund is specifically allocated for natural disaster response. The agency has separate programs administered by the Department of Homeland Security to shelter migrants.The former president was asked about a recent report that an armed man in North Carolina was threatening FEMA workers, and whether his rhetoric attacking the agency made it harder to respond to the storm.“Well, I think you have to let people know how they’re doing,” Trump said. “If they’re doing a poor job we’re supposed to not say it?”Asked about Cooper’s handling of the storm, Trump said he was “not hearing the good things about the governor here like I’m hearing about the governor in Georgia, as an example.”“I’m hearing the governor in Georgia’s done a very good job, and I don’t really know the governor here. But I’m not hearing that he’s done a very good job. So that’s the only thing I can say,” Trump said.

An ‘Obamacare’ for homeowners insurance could protect against climate change --In the wake of the devastation caused by Hurricanes Milton and Helene, it has become painfully clear that the financial security of millions of Americans is under threat, not just from extreme weather, but from the crumbling homeowners insurance system. These storms are the latest in a series of climate-driven disasters that have stretched insurance markets to the breaking point. As wildfires sweep through the West, hurricanes batter the Gulf and floods inundate inland areas, homeowners insurance markets are facing unprecedented disruption — and it’s only getting worse. Americans, particularly those in the most vulnerable regions, are feeling the squeeze. Insurers are fleeing states like Florida and California, leaving homeowners scrambling to secure coverage. Even where coverage is still available, costs are skyrocketing, pushing premiums to levels that make owning a home a precarious financial risk for many families. This isn’t a crisis that will fix itself. If the U.S. doesn’t take bold steps to overhaul homeowners insurance markets, we risk a catastrophic fallout — one that could crash real estate markets, destabilize local economies and derail efforts to build resilience to climate change. What’s happening in homeowners insurance markets today echoes the dysfunction we saw in health insurance markets before the passage of the Affordable Care Act, commonly known as Obamacare. Before Obamacare, millions of Americans faced rising costs, coverage denials for preexisting conditions and confusing, inadequate health plans. The law tackled these issues head-on with a cooperative federalism approach, leveraging both state and federal expertise to create affordable, accessible health coverage. It’s time we took a similar approach to homeowners insurance, which is currently regulated solely by states but demands broader federal intervention to address today’s climate challenges. As with health insurance, there’s a national interest in stabilizing homeowners insurance markets. After all, homes that aren’t insured can’t be sold, and uninsured homeowners can’t rebuild after a disaster. This can trigger a ripple effect, undermining real estate markets and leaving taxpayers to foot the bill for disaster recovery through the National Flood Insurance Program and FEMA emergency assistance. States are ill-equipped to handle this insurance crisis on their own. Many rely on outdated regulatory strategies — such as pre-approval of premium changes to ensure they are not “excessive” — which can backfire by driving insurers out of the market. In California, insurers like State Farm and Allstate have pulled out of the market, largely due to the state’s aggressive rate regulation that doesn’t reflect the new realities of climate risks. That’s why a federal intervention modeled on Obamacare makes sense. The solution lies in cooperative federalism: setting federal standards for homeowners insurance while allowing states the flexibility to adapt those standards to their unique risks. (I describe this proposal in depth in a forthcoming Harvard Environmental Law review article.) Much like Obamacare did for health insurance, federal standards for homeowners insurance should mandate comprehensive coverage, including for climate-driven risks like floods and wildfires. It should also ensure that prices remain affordable through progressive subsidies for low-income households. Further echoing Obamacare, federal reform should focus on promoting managed competition among private insurers in lieu of outdated state regulation of “excessive” rates, which can be accomplished by establishing state-run insurance exchanges on which competing insurers sell standardized coverage on an apples-to-apples basis. Even more than Obamacare, such structured competition would help contain insurance rate increases, as there are numerous competing homeowners insurers in every region of the country.

Central Park 5 sue Donald Trump for defamation over debate comments -The exonerated Central Park Five sued former President Trump for defamation Monday over his comments at the recent presidential debate about the group’s wrongful convictions for rape and assault. During a segment on race and politics at the Sept. 10 debate against Vice President Harris, Trump said “they admitted — they said, they pled guilty.” “And I said, well, if they pled guilty they badly hurt a person, killed a person ultimately. And if they pled guilty — then they pled we’re not guilty,” Trump continued. The five Black and Hispanic teenagers were wrongfully convicted of the 1989 rape and assault of a woman jogging in New York City’s Central Park. They spent years in prison before their convictions were overturned in 2002, once the true culprit confessed and was corroborated by DNA evidence. The lawsuit notes the five members never pleaded guilty and the victim wasn’t killed, claiming Trump’s comments were made with a “reckless disregard for their falsity” to the tens of millions of Americans who tuned into the debate.“Defendant Trump’s conduct at the September 10 debate was extreme and outrageous, and it was intended to cause severe emotional distress to Plaintiffs,” the complaint states. Members of the Central Park Five have chastised Trump as he hopes to win a second White House term, including by addressing the Democratic National Convention this summer. The lawsuit, filed in federal court in Pennsylvania, includes claims of defamation, false light and intentional infliction of emotional distress. It asks for an unspecified amount of damages. “This is just another frivolous, Election Interference lawsuit, filed by desperate left-wing activists, in an attempt to distract the American people from Kamala Harris’s dangerously liberal agenda and failing campaign,” Trump campaign spokesperson Steven Cheung said in a statement.“The frantic lawfare efforts by Lyin’ Kamala’s allies to interfere in the election are going nowhere and President Trump is dominating as he marches to a historic win for the American people on November 5th,” he added.

Trump tax plans could exempt 93 million Americans from income taxes -- Former President Donald Trump’s tax reform ideas could offer total or partial income tax exemptions to roughly 93.2 million Americans, a meaningful chunk of the U.S. electorate, according to CNBC’s analysis of several estimates. As part of his economic pitch to voters, Trump has floated a sweeping tax overhaul, including a slate of income tax breaks. So far, the Republican presidential nominee has officially proposed eliminating income tax on tips and Social Security benefits, along with overtime pay. And last week, in an interview on the sports media site OutKick, Trump said he would consider tax exemptions for firefighters, police officers, military personnel and veterans.These exemptions are part of Trump’s larger vision to transition away from the income tax system and replace it with the revenue he says would be generated by his hardline tariff proposals.“In the old days when we were smart, when we were a smart country, in the 1890s and all, this is when the country was relatively the richest it ever was. It had all tariffs. It didn’t have an income tax,” Trump said at a sit-down with voters in New York on Friday for “Fox & Friends.” “Now we have income taxes, and we have people that are dying.” Trump has pledged to impose a 20% universal tariff on all imports from all countries with a specific 60% rate for Chinese imports.Tax experts reject the notion that tariff revenue could offset the losses incurred by eliminating income taxes. “The math doesn’t work out,” Garrett Watson, a senior policy analyst at the nonpartisan Tax Foundation, told CNBC.He said Trump’s tariffs would raise approximately $3.8 trillion over the next decade, far less than the roughly $33 trillion of estimated revenue generated by income taxes over the same period.Given that tariffs are paid by U.S. importers and those costs have historically been passed on to consumers, Trump’s strategy appears to be based around a notion of replacing income tax revenue with a kind of invisible sales tax.Tariffs, much like sales tax and other point-of-sale costs, tend to have the biggest impact on low-income consumers, for whom the amounts represent proportionately larger slices of their monthly budgets.If implemented, Trump’s income tax exemptions could affect tens of millions of taxpayers.Roughly 68 million Americans receive Social Security benefits each month, according to the Social Security Administration. And in 2023, about 4 million workers were in tipped jobs, according to an estimate from Yale University’s Budget Lab.The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs approximated in March 2023 that there were 18.6 million living veterans. There are 1.3 million active-duty military personnel, according to the Department of Defense. And there are 800,000 sworn law enforcement officers and roughly 500,000 paid firefighters.Taken together, these reforms could leave about 93.2 million people off the hook for at least a portion, if not all, of their income taxes.That accounts for about 38% of the 244 million Americans eligible to vote in 2024.This total excludes the many more people who would be exempt from part of their income taxes if Trump executed his proposed elimination of taxes on overtime pay. And the total could vary based on how much overlap there is between the taxpayer groups Trump has proposed to give tax breaks to.The tax exemptions on tips, overtime pay and Social Security benefits would reduce federal tax revenue by $2 trillion over the next 10 years, according to the Tax Foundation.“Trump’s proposed tax exemptions for tips, Social Security benefits, overtime work, and potentially for workers of certain occupations follows a trend of promising narrowly targeted tax benefits without a strong underlying policy rationale and no consideration on how these proposals would impact revenue collections or the complexity of the tax system,” the Tax Foundation’s Watson told CNBC. Factoring in Trump’s tariff plans and other tax cuts, his overall plan would reduce federal tax revenue by an estimated $3 trillion from 2025 to 2034, the Tax Foundation estimated. Analysts see Trump’s scheme to move away from income taxes as something of a pipe dream. “Spoiler alert: We don’t think tariffs will replace income taxes,” Evercore analysts wrote in a June report.

Trump plan would hasten Social Security insolvency: Budget group -Former President Donald Trump's campaign plans would significantly accelerate the already-fast-approaching date when Social Security is projected to run out of money, a nonpartisan budget group said Monday.Trump's agenda would make the popular government program, relied upon by millions of American seniors, insolvent in six years — shrinking the current timeline by a third, the group found.The Republican nominee's proposals would also expand Social Security's cash shortfall by trillions of dollars and lead to even steeper benefit cuts in the coming years, said US Budget Watch 2024, a project of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget."We find President Trump's campaign proposals would dramatically worsen Social Security's finances," the CRFB budget group said in a blog post.The Trump campaign pushed back fiercely on the post."The so-called experts at CRFB have been consistently wrong throughout the years," spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said in a statement to CNBC.Trump "will continue to strongly protect Social Security in his second term," Leavitt said. She claimed that Democratic nominee Kamala Harris posed the real threat to the program's solvency, arguing that her policies would usher in a flood of undocumented immigrants that would "cause Social Security to buckle and collapse."Only certain noncitizens are eligible to qualify for Supplemental Security Income benefits.Social Security trust funds are set to be exhausted by Fiscal Year 2034, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Fiscal years begin in October.The Social Security trustees' projections show the program's combined funds may only be able to pay full benefits until 2035. However, the trust fund Social Security relies on to pay retirement benefits may run out even sooner, in 2033.Both Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, have vowed to "protect" Social Security and the government-run health insurance program Medicare, while opposing any cuts.At the same time, Trump has vowed to enact a growing list of tax cuts targeting key groups of Americans.He has proposed eliminating taxes on seniors' Social Security benefits, ending taxes on service workers' tips and overtime wages, lowering the corporate tax rate even further, and imposing sweeping across-the-board tariffs, which are taxes on imported goods.The tax-cut plans, along with Trump's pledge to carry out mass deportations as soon as he takes office, "would all widen Social Security's cash deficits," the CRFB said in Monday's post.Specifically, the group found that his agenda would:

• Boost Social Security's 10-year shortfall by $2.3 trillion through FY 2035;
• Accelerate its insolvency timeline to FY 2031 from FY 2034;
• Cause a 33% across-the-board benefit cut in 2035 (up from the 23% cut the CBO currently projects);
• Increase its annual shortfall by about 50% in FY 2035; and
• Force an equivalent reduction of current benefits by about one third, or an increase in revenue by about one half, to restore Social Security's 75-year solvency.

Those findings are no surprise, given that Trump's plans involve cutting taxes that bring significant revenue to Social Security's trust funds, said Maria Freese, senior legislative representative at the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare."If you cut income taxes and cut payroll taxes, then you're going to have an impact on Social Security," Freese said."Depending on the proposal that you're looking at, it could have a dramatic impact over time, and particularly when you're looking at a trust fund depletion date that's within the decade anyway," she said.The National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare has endorsed Harris for president."I don't believe the Trump campaign is looking to undermine Social Security," said Andrew Biggs, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and former principal deputy commissioner of the Social Security Administration. "I just don't believe it's front of mind for them as they put out various proposals."While certain proposals directly affect Social Security, such as ending taxes on benefits or certain kinds of income, other policies, such as curbing immigration, would also have consequences for the program, he said."It is such a large program that any policy that changes the economy or the tax code is likely to have some effect on Social Security," Biggs said. "And likewise, Social Security is so big, any changes to Social Security will affect other things."With Social Security's funding depletion dates approaching, both campaigns could provide more details on how they would reform the program, he said.

Biden extends student loan payment pause by 6 months for 8 million SAVE plan borrowers -- Federal student loan payments for some 8 million borrowers will remain on pause for six months or longer, a spokesperson for the U.S. Department of Education said. The development on Monday comes as the Biden administration has been dragged into a slew of legal battles waged by Republicans over its recent student loan relief efforts. The borrowers who are excused from their monthly payments are those enrolled in the Biden administration's new SAVE plan. SAVE enrollees will be placed in an interest-free general forbearance, the Education Department spokesperson said.A federal court issued an injunction earlier this year preventing the department from implementing parts of the Saving on a Valuable Education plan. The agency had billed SAVE as the most affordable repayment plan in history, and many people were expected to see their monthly bills cut in half. Republican attorneys general in Kansas and Missouri, who led the legal challenges against SAVE, argue that President Joe Biden is essentially trying to find a roundabout way to forgive student debt after the Supreme Court blocked its sweeping debt cancellation plan in June 2023.SAVE comes with two key provisions that lawsuits have targeted: It has lower monthly payments than any other federal student loan repayment plan, and it leads to quicker debt erasure for those with small balances.Before the legal challenges, the Education Department had already forgiven $5.5 billion in student debt for 414,000 borrowers through the SAVE Plan.

White House proposes coverage for over-the-counter contraception --The White House on Monday announced a proposal that would require insurers to cover the cost of forms of contraception like over-the-counter birth control pills and condoms under the Affordable Care Act.The proposed rule would cover emergency contraception like the Plan B pill, condoms, nonprescription birth control pills and spermicides. The White House said if approved, the rule would expand coverage of contraception for 52 million women of reproductive age who have private health insurance.“At a time when contraception access is under attack, Vice President Harris and I are resolute in our commitment to expanding access to quality, affordable contraception,” President Biden said in a statement. “We believe that women in every state must have the freedom to make deeply personal health care decisions, including the right to decide if and when to start or grow their family,” he added. “We will continue to fight to protect access to reproductive health care and call on Congress to restore reproductive freedom and safeguard the right to contraception once and for all.”Harris, the Democratic nominee for president, has made protecting reproductive rights and abortion access a central pillar of her campaign for the White House. She has repeatedly warned that if former President Trump is elected, Republicans will attempt to restrict access to contraception and abortion.In a statement on Monday, Harris cited GOP votes against legislation to protect a right to contraception and to protect in vitro fertilization (IVF), a procedure that has come under scrutiny after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022.“President Biden and I stand with the majority of Americans — Republicans and Democrats alike – who support access to contraception,” Harris said. “And we continue to call on Congress to pass federal legislation that restores reproductive freedom nationwide.”The Biden White House has taken steps in the aftermath of the Roe v. Wade ruling to try toprotect access to birth control.Trump, who appointed three conservative Supreme Court justices who voted to overturn Roe, has taken credit for sending the issue of abortion back to the states and has praised the patchwork of laws as a “beautiful thing to watch,” as some states enact near-total bans on the procedure.The former president has also said he would veto federal legislation to ban abortion if it reached his desk.

Florida official says DeSantis's office ordered him to threaten TV stations over abortion ads --John Wilson, general counsel for the Florida Department of Health, wrote in a sworn affidavit that officials from Gov. Ron DeSantis’s (R) office pushed him to threaten television stations with criminal prosecutions if they did not take down ads in support of a Florida abortion rights measure.Wilson, who resigned from his position on Oct. 10, wrote in the affidavit that he received prewritten letters directing him to send the threatening letters under his name on behalf of the Florida Department of Health.He said he received the letters on Oct. 3 from Sam Elliot, assistant general counsel for the executive office of the governor. Wilson said he was also directed to send the letters by Ryan Newman and Jed Jody, two other officials in DeSantis’s office.Wilson did send the letters, which pressured the TV stations to take down political advertisements in support of Amendment 4, a ballot measure that, if approved, would broaden access to abortion in the state of Florida. The measure, which needs the support of 60 percent of voters to pass, would effectively reverse a six-week ban on abortion. “A man is nothing without his conscience,” Wilson wrote in his resignation letter reported by the Miami Herald and Tampa Bay Times. “It has become clear in recent days that I cannot join you on the road that lies before the agency.” Wilson is now being sued, along with Joseph Ladapo, the Florida surgeon general and head of the Department of Health, by Floridians Protecting Freedom, the group sponsoring Amendment 4. It claims the threatening letters sent to the television stations violated their First Amendment rights.

Supreme Court rebuffs challenge to job protections for consumer watchdog leaders -- The U.S. Supreme Court declined on Monday to hear a conservative challenge to job protections for the leaders of the federal consumer product safety watchdog in a case that would have given the justices a chance to reassess a 1935 precedent that limits a president's ability to fire certain agency heads.The justices turned away an appeal by plaintiffs led by the conservative group Consumers' Research of a lower court's ruling upholding the protections involving the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission, an independent agency within the federal government's executive branch.The 1972 federal law that established the agency makes its five commissioners removable only for "neglect of duty or malfeasance," not at the whim of a president, as lawmakers sought to insulate it from presidential control. The plaintiffs sued the agency, arguing that this law violates the U.S. Constitution's principle of separation of powers among the government's executive, legislative and judicial branches.The suit was brought after the agency denied information requests filed under the Freedom of Information Act by Consumers' Research and a second plaintiff in the case, a Texas company called By Two.Lawyers for Democratic President Joe Biden's administration had urged the Supreme Court to turn away the appeal, arguing that the plaintiffs lacked the required legal standing to sue the agency and that their claims are foreclosed by Supreme Court precedent.Texas-based U.S. District Judge Jeremy Kernodle, appointed to the bench by Republican former President Donald Trump, in 2022 ruled in favor of the plaintiffs, finding that these job protections violated the Constitution's Article II, which states that the "executive power shall be vested in a president of the United States of America."On appeal, the New Orleans-based 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals reversed Kernodle's ruling. The 5th Circuit upheld the legal shield in place for commissioners of the consumer protection agency under the Supreme Court's 1935 ruling in a case called Humphrey's Executor v. United States.In that case, the Supreme Court found that a president does not have unfettered power to remove commissioners of the U.S. Federal Trade Commission, faulting then-President Franklin Roosevelt's firing of an FTC commissioner for policy differences.The current Supreme Court, with a 6-3 conservative majority, has taken an expansive view of presidential powers in recent years and has shown skepticism toward broad authority forfederal agencies. This case gives the conservative justices a chance to rein in or depart from Humphrey's Executor.The challenge led by Consumers' Research has drawn support from 11 Republican U.S. lawmakers including Senator Ted Cruzand Representative Darrell Issa as well as the Republican attorneys general of 16 states, and various conservative and libertarian groups. Consumers' Research on its website asks people to report "woke" actions by companies, saying, "Many corporations are putting progressive activists and their dangerous agendas ahead of customers." It also opposes the ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) investing principle that puts a premium on environmental and issues, and corporate governance.

Supreme Court to consider which courts can weigh challenges to some EPA actions - The Supreme Court will take up a series of cases to determine which federal courts can take on cases related to certain Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) actions, it said Monday. The cases stem from two seemingly separate issues: whether Oklahoma and Utah need to requirements that their gasoline contain a percentage of ethanol. However, they share an underlying question: which courts can hear objections to a rejection from the EPA. The states, whose plans were rejected, want their case to be heard in the 10th Circuit Court of Appeals, while the refineries, whose exemption petitions were rejected, want their case to be heard in the 5th Circuit. By taking up the cases, the Supreme Court could be barreling toward a judgment about where challenges to a wide array of EPA actions can be heard. And some circuits have reputations for different ideologies: The 5th Circuit in particular is regarded as the nation’s most conservative. The ruling will only pertain to cases heard under the Clean Air Act, which has a provision that says challenges to “nationally applicable” clean air actions need to be heard in the District of Columbia Circuit. The states and refineries argue that the questions at issue are “locally” rather than “nationally” applicable and should therefore be heard in regional courts. In the oil refineries case, the EPA argued that the action is actually nationally applicable because it applies “a uniform methodology to 105 petitions for exemptions” for ethanol-blending requirements. Justice Samuel Alito sat out of consideration of whether to take the smog cases.

Mark Cuban says Kamala Harris campaign rejected X interview with Elon Musk -- Billionaire investor Mark Cuban said Monday that Vice President Harris’s campaign rejected a live interview on the social platform X with billionaire Elon Musk, who owns the platform. Cuban, who has been campaigning for the vice president, said in an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that he told the Harris campaign he could try to facilitate a meeting with Musk. However, he said they “didn’t trust the fact that [Musk] wouldn’t go on X and just say something to distort the purpose of the meeting.” Musk responded to Cuban’s comments in a post on X, saying he would be “happy to have a live discussion, so there can’t be any ‘distortion.’” “That would be so awesome,” the Tesla and SpaceX CEO added. “Please can we do this. Pretty please.” Cuban later clarified the “distortion” comment, saying it was the “wrong choice of words on my part” and suggesting that “disclosure” would have been a better choice. He also asked Musk if he would like to meet privately if Harris wins the election. During his interview on CNBC, Cuban said “100 percent yes” when asked if he believes there could be a relationship between Harris and Musk if she becomes president. “I’ve had that conversation,” he said.

McDonald’s says it doesn’t endorse political candidates after Trump visit -- McDonald’s is seeking to emphasize its political neutrality after former President Trump spent some time behind the counter at a Pennsylvania location of the fast-food giant, which says it does not endorse political candidates. “As we’ve seen, our brand has been a fixture of conversation this election cycle. While we’ve not sought this, it’s a testament to how much McDonald’s resonates with so many Americans,” the company said in a Monday statement. “McDonald’s does not endorse candidates for elected office and that remains true in this race for the next President. We are not red or blue — we are golden.” The statement added that the request to visit the Pennsylvania franchise was handled locally.“Upon learning of the former President’s request, we approached it through the lens of one of our core values: we open our doors to everyone,” it said.“It’s with that same approach that franchisees have invited Vice President Harris and [Minnesota] Governor [Tim] Walz to their restaurants, in order to share how McDonald’s provides meaningful pathways to economic opportunity and feeds and fosters local communities.”In Bucks County on Sunday, Trump worked a McDonald’s drive-thru for a short time after spending weeks mocking Harris’s past experience working for the chain as a young woman. The Harris campaign launched an ad in August highlighting her upbringing in an effort to appeal to middle-class voters, noting that Harris worked at McDonald’s while earning her college degree at Howard University. She had referenced the experience during past campaigns as well.

Tulsi Gabbard Announces Switch To GOP - Former presidential candidate and congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, who left the Democratic Party two years ago, announced Tuesday that she’s joining the Republican Party because of her love for America and former President Donald Trump’s leadership. Gabbard made the surprise announcement during a speech at Trump’s rally in Greensboro, North Carolina. “It is because of my love for our country, and specifically because of the leadership that President Trump has brought to transform the Republican Party and bring it back to the party of the people and the party of peace, that I’m proud to stand here with you today, President Trump, and announce that I’m joining the Republican Party,”Gabbard said.Moments prior to revealing her decision, Gabbard explained her reasoning. She said that the Republican Party was welcoming to “independent-minded people” who are committed to the U.S. Constitution and to freedom, such as herself.“I am joining the party of the people, the party of equality, the party that was founded to fight against and end slavery in this country. It is the party of common sense and the party that is led by a president who has the courage and strength to fight for peace,” said Gabbard, who serves in the U.S. Army Reserves. She noted that Trump has “pledged to end wars, not start them.” Gabbard served as a member of Congress from 2013 through 2021, representing Hawaii’s second district as a Democrat.

As Harris campaigns with Liz Cheney, Bernie Sanders hails war criminal Joe Biden in New Hampshire - With the US presidential election two weeks away, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders appeared Tuesday alongside outgoing President Joe Biden and several other Democratic politicians at a White House-organized event in Concord, New Hampshire. Vice President Kamala Harris was not present for the event, as she continued to crisscross battleground states with arch-conservative warmonger and former Wyoming Representative Liz Cheney. The Democrats are deploying the daughter of George W. Bush’s Vice President Dick Cheney, who has likewise endorsed Harris, in a bid to appeal to influential Republicans who view former President Donald Trump as too unreliable to manage rising class conflict at home and the expanding global war in the Middle East, Eastern Europe and ultimately China. Appearing at an event with Liz Cheney and Maria Shriver in Oakland County, Michigan, on October 21, Harris touted her time on the Senate Foreign Intelligence Committee and attacked Trump for campaigning on ending the war in Ukraine. “He would surrender; he would have Ukraine surrender its fight against an aggressor,” Harris said. Cheney expanded on Harris’s response, saying that there has been an “embrace of isolationism” within the Republican Party. To this, Harris added that “Trump’s approach would be to surrender.” She continued, “Understand what that would mean. That is signaling to the president of Russia, he can get away with what he has done. Understand, look at the map, Poland would be next.” While Harris and Cheney campaigned on defending US imperialism, Tuesday’s event at Concord Community College in New Hampshire was focused on the “progress” the Biden White House and the Democratic Party have made in lowering prescription drug prices through the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. The legislation was passed along party lines, with all Democrats and those that caucus with them voting in favor. The bill was sold as a major advance in the fight against global warming, inequality and inflation control. In reality, the pro-corporate legislation does nothing of the sort. Inflation continues to devour workers’ paychecks, and the number of billionaires in the US increased from 704 in 2022 to 748 in 2023, according to Forbes. A March report from inequality.org found that in the last four years, three of which encompass the Biden-Harris administration, billionaire wealth in the US almost doubled, increasing from $2.947 trillion to $5.529 trillion. The impotent efforts to combat climate change included in the bill are in the form of tax credits and handouts for so-called “green energy” projects, such as geothermal plants that use hydraulic fracking and tax credits for electric vehicle purchases. The bill provides no caps on greenhouse gas emissions or enhanced penalties for major polluters. All of the significant social reform measures were stripped out of the final legislation, leaving only a few changes at the margins in contrast to the billions in handouts to corporations. Among the tepid reforms that remained in the bill was empowering Medicare to negotiate some prescription drug prices with the major pharmaceutical companies, which other government agencies, including the Veterans Administration, have been able to do for decades. The ineffectual character of the legislation was borne out in the politicians’ remarks. While Sanders praised the bill as a step forward in the reduction of drug costs, the Vermont senator was forced to admit that the “top 10 pharmaceutical companies made over $110 billion in profit last year and paid their CEOs exorbitant compensation packages,” while “one in four Americans cannot afford the medicine their doctors prescribe.” In fact, the five largest pharmaceutical companies reported a market capitalization of $81.9 billion in 2022, an increase of over $8 billion from 2021, according to a 2023 analysis by Accountable.US.A June report from Fierce Pharma found that Eli Lilly, the largest pharmaceutical company in the world, paid its CEO Dave Ricks $26.6 million in 2023. Johnson & Johnson CEO Joaquin Duato was the highest paid pharma CEO in 2023, pulling in $28.4 million, a 116 percent leap in pay from the previous year.Merck CEO Robert Davis received an 8 percent pay increase in 2023, to $20.3 million, up from $18.7 million the year before. Former AbbVie CEO Richard Gonzalez, who retired in July of this year, took home $25.7 million in 2023. Finally, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla was paid $21.56 million in 2023 on top of the staggering $33 million he was paid in 2022.

Trump campaign accuses UK Labour Party of “foreign interference” in US election - In a dramatic example of the problems posed to the European ruling class by the US elections, Republican candidate Donald Trump has filed an official complaint against Britain’s ruling Labour Party alleging “blatant foreign interference”. The letter was prompted by the despatch of 100 Labour Party staffers to America to aid the campaign of Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. Trump’s complaint, submitted to the Federal Election Commission, alleges that “the relationship between the Harris campaign and the Labour Party create a reasonable inference that the Labour Party has made, and the Harris campaign has accepted, illegal foreign national contributions.” It cites reports from the Washington Post that “strategists linked to Britain’s Labour Party have been offering advice to Kamala Harris about how to earn back disaffected voters”, and from The Daily Telegraph that “Morgan McSweeney, the Prime Minister’s chief of staff, and Matthew Doyle, director of communications, attended the convention in Chicago and met with Ms Harris’ campaign team” and “Deborah Mattinson, [prime minister] Sir Keir’s director of strategy, also went to Washington in September to brief Ms Harris’ presidential campaign on Labour’s election-winning approach.” The Telegraph reported on a LinkedIn post by Labour’s head of operations advertising, “I have nearly 100 Labour Party staff (current and former) going to the US in the next few weeks heading to North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Virginia. I have 10 spots available for anyone available to head to the battleground state of North Carolina—we will sort your housing.” According to the paper, “Labour activists who want to help with the Harris campaign have been told they will need to pay for their own flights and car hire but that Democrat volunteers would provide accommodation… any staff intending to travel are expected to book annual leave for the duration of their trip.” Unpaid volunteer work by foreign nationals has previously been ruled legal by the Commission, which is why the Trump campaign alleges financial contributions. Starmer responded on this basis by waving the matter aside, telling reporters that Labour volunteers were “doing it in their spare time, they’re doing it as volunteers, they’re staying, I think, with other volunteers over there. That’s what they’ve done in previous elections, that’s what they’re doing in this election and that’s really straightforward.” Except there is nothing “straightforward” about this election for the British ruling class. Whether the work is legal and usual is not the issue. What matters is that Starmer has found himself attacked—in the Republican’s usual absurd fashion—as a “far-left” inspiration for “Kamala’s dangerously liberal policies and rhetoric” by the team around the man he is working desperately to please as the potential next president of the United States. In fact, as Politico reports, the Labour Party is mostly advising the Democratic Party how to shift further to the right on immigration, scrap any green pretensions, mix “pragmatism with patriotism”, “temper uncompromising activist positions” and “shed the far-left stigma”, with reference to the purges against Jeremy Corbyn’s supporters. The Republicans’ complaint against the Labour Party even invokes the American War of Independence against its activities: “When representatives of the British government previously sought to go door-to-door in America, it did not end well for them.” Yet Starmer’s only answer to a question about whether the row would damage his relationship with Trump was to point to his fawning meeting with the would-be dictator in New York last month: “We established a good relationship. We’re grateful for him for making the time... for that dinner… We had a very good, constructive discussion and, of course, as prime minister of the United Kingdom I will work with whoever the American people return as their president in their elections, which are very close now.” The British in particular, but all of Europe’s ruling classes and their governments are caught in a painful limbo as the US election draws nearer.

DOJ Warns Musk Over $1M Voter Giveaway: Report -- While the Biden-Harris DOJ has been silent over allegations that Democrat fundraising platform ActBlue is using illegal straw donors, they sure seem to have a problem with Elon Musk's super PAC - and has issued a warning in an alleged letter that its $1 million daily giveaway in battleground states may violate federal law, NBC News reports (based on an anonymous source, so who knows). According to the report, the letter follows mounting pressure to stop the program. The letter, which was earlier reported by CNN, follows mounting pressure on state and federal authorities to investigate Musk’s lottery as a potential violation of election laws, including a ban on paying people to register to vote. On Monday, a group of ex-prosecutors and other former government officials sent a letter to the Justice Department requesting an investigation. News of the letter come on the same day that left-wing public advocacy group Public Citizen filed a complaint with the Federal Elections Commission alleging that the contest violates campaign finance law because "the purpose of the $1 million reward for signing the petition appears to be to motivate voter registration and voting at the polls by those sympathetic with the candidacy of Donald Trump in the key swing states for the 2024 presidential election."According to the complaint, because the contest is only available to registered voters, it may constitute an illegal financial incentive to get people to register to vote.On the other hand, Musk's PAC, the America PAC, is asking people to sign a petition for the chance to win $1 million - not explicitly rewarding them for registering to vote.On Sunday, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) told Meet the Press that the contest was "concerning," and "something that law enforcement could take a look at."

The oligarchs’ election - The 2024 presidential election, to a degree that surpasses even previous elections, is dominated by a massive level of direct involvement by a handful of billionaires and capitalist oligarchs who control both political parties. This fact was graphically illustrated over the weekend, when the world’s richest man, Elon Musk, announced that he would provide a $1 million check each day from now to the election to a randomly selected individual who signs a right-wing petition to uphold the First and Second amendments to the US Constitution. Tesla and X boss Musk (net worth $250 billion) announced the payoff Saturday at a rally he hosted in Pennsylvania to promote the campaign of fascist Republican Donald Trump. The money will come from America PAC, a pro-Trump political action committee established by Musk with a $75 million donation. America PAC set up the online petition, supposedly directed in support of “free speech” (against efforts to curb fascist postings on social media) and individual “gun rights,” as interpreted by the ultra-right Supreme Court. The only requirements for the winners is that they are registered voters and live in one of the seven “battleground” states, which are the most closely contested in the presidential race: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Musk has used the online America PAC petition to generate political support for Trump. He first offered $47 for every referral resulting in a signature (the president elected next month, whether Trump or Harris, would be the 47th in US history). He later raised the incentive to $100, before deciding on the latest publicity stunt.Since he fully came on board with the Trump campaign three months ago, Musk has become one of the top four financial backers of the fascist Republican, joining Timothy Mellon (family net worth $14 billion), heir to the banking fortune, who donated $150 million to the Make America Great Again super PAC; Miriam Adelson (net worth $35 billion), who gave $95 million to the Preserve America super PAC; and Richard Uihlein (net worth $6 billion), who pumped $49 million into the Restoration PAC.The section of the ruling class behind Trump is openly breaking with constitutional forms of rule, backing Trump’s fascistic attack on the “enemy within,” by which is meant all opposition to the policies of the corporate and financial oligarchy.An article in Forbes published last week, however, notes in its headline that “Kamala Harris Has More Billionaires Prominently Backing Her Than Trump.” Forbes’ breakdown recorded 79 billionaires backing the Democratic candidate, compared to 50 behind the Republican.Among the 28 billionaires who donated at least $1 million to groups supporting Harris are former Google CEO Eric Schmidt (net worth $38 billion); Michael Bloomberg (net worth $105 billion); Home Depot co-founder Arthur Blank (net worth $9.5 billion); and heir to the Cargill food empire Gwendolyn Sontheim Meyer (net worth $5.1 billion), among many others.The leading PAC for the Democratic wing of the capitalist oligarchy, Future Forward, has raised $700 million, mainly from pro-Democratic IT moguls in California’s Silicon Valley. Facebook co-founder Dustin Moskovitz has given more than $50 million since 2020, by one report.The PAC money is in addition to the vast sums raised directly by the candidates and the two corporate-controlled parties. According to the latest filings with the Federal Election Commission, fundraising committees for the Harris campaign, the Democratic National Committee and state Democratic Party committees raised $652 million in the third quarter of this year. This was nearly double the $340 million the Trump campaign and the Republican Party raised during the same three months, ending September 30.These massive financial resources are being focused almost entirely on the seven battleground states, and particularly the so-called “blue wall” Northern industrial states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, which Trump won in 2016 over Hillary Clinton and lost to Joe Biden in 2020.In Pennsylvania alone, the battleground state with the most electoral votes, 19, the two capitalist parties have spent nearly half a billion dollars on advertisements, according to the firm AdImpact--$275.1 million for the Democrats and $222.5 million for the Republicans. Michigan is approaching that total, followed by Georgia and Wisconsin.Anyone watching television or going online in a battleground state is immediately bludgeoned with campaign appeals, of a generally fascistic character from Trump (usually demonizing immigrants) or from Harris (portraying the millionaire defender of capitalism as concerned about the conditions of life of working people).The immense role of the capitalist oligarchy is a reflection of the reality of the state, which is not a neutral arbiter but an instrument of class rule.The elections themselves unfold under conditions of a conspiracy of silence on the fundamental issues confronting the population in the United States and the world, including the ongoing genocide in Gaza, the escalation of war in the Middle East and against Russia, the breakdown of democratic forms of rule and the colossal growth of social inequality.And while billionaires compete over the buying of their preferred candidates, any genuine opposition is excluded. Commenting on Musk’s $1 million payouts, Socialist Equality Party candidate for president Joseph Kishore noted: Third parties and independent candidates in the US are hampered at every turn by a vast array of undemocratic measures, from ballot access laws, to restrictions on coverage, to censorship by the media.We focused attention on the historical significance of this vast social gulf in its 2024 New Year editorial statement. We wrote:All talk about defending democracy and fighting fascism while ignoring the fundamental question of class and economic power—and, therefore, recognizing the necessity for the mobilization of the working class on a global scale for the overthrow of capitalism—is cynical and politically impotent demagogy.The wealth of the billionaires must be expropriated, and the gigantic corporations must be transformed, without compensation to the large shareholders, into publicly controlled utilities, run on the basis of social need, not private profit. The anti-democratic institutions and repressive organs of the capitalist state (the professional military, police and intelligence agencies) must be abolished and replaced by organizations of workers’ control and power, to establish a democratic and planned economy on a world scale.The experience of the 2024 election campaign has only underscored the truth of this assessment and the urgent necessity for the working class to combine the defense of democracy and democratic rights with the political struggle to expropriate the wealth of the oligarchs.

Billionaire Ripple founder has given more than $11.8 million to Harris campaign - Fresh election data shows that with two weeks to go until the general election, the crypto industry mostly donated to Vice President Kamala Harris. Chris Larsen, co-founder and chairman of Ripple, contributed nearly $9.9 million to Future Forward in September, in addition to more than $800,000 to the Harris Victory Fund, according to FEC data compiled by the Breadcrumbs crypto market and blockchain analyst James Delmore and independently verified by CNBC.Including Larsen’s August contribution of $1 million worth of XRP tokens, the billionaire has given more than $11.8 million to PACs supporting the Harris campaign, making him one of the crypto industry’s largest individual donors this cycle.Larsen, who’s backed candidates across the aisle the last few years, told CNBC in an interview that his comfort level with Harris comes from conversations he’s had with people inside the campaign and what he’s seen from the vice president since she replaced President Joe Biden at the top of the ticket in July.It helps that Harris is from the Bay Area.“She knows people who have grown up in the innovation economy her whole life,” Larsen previously told CNBC. “So I think she gets it at a fundamental level, in a way that I think the Biden folks were just not paying attention to, or maybe just didn’t make the connection between empowering workers and making sure you have American champions dominating their industries.”Larsen’s affection for the Democratic nominee isn’t new. In February, he gave the maximum personal contribution of $6,600 to Harris (which would cover the primary and general election), about five months before she became the Democratic presidential nominee, Federal Election Commission filings show. At the same time, he contributed $100,000 to the Harris Action Fund PAC.Larsen, 64, has a net worth of $3.1 billion, according to Forbes, primarily from his ownership of XRP and involvement in Ripple, which provides blockchain technology for financial services companies.He’s part of an industry that’s become suddenly prominent in political fundraising, though more heavily in support of Republicans. Nearly half of all the corporate money flowing into the election has come from the crypto industry, according to a recent report from the nonprofit watchdog group Public Citizen.The Trump PAC has raised about $7.5 million crypto donations since early June.Fairshake, which is one of the top spending PACs this year, is targeting close House races. The committee gave out nearly $29 million in September.Of that sum, $20 million went to two affiliated PACs — $15 million to the Defend American Jobs PAC, a single-issue committee focused on cryptocurrency and blockchain policy that’s favored Republicans, and $5 million to Protect Progress, which has only supported Democrats.The remaining $8.8 million spent by Fairshake last month mostly went to House races in New York, Nevada and California, according to FEC data compiled by the Breadcrumbs crypto market and blockchain analyst Delmore and verified by CNBC. Several of those races are considered toss-ups by the Cook Political Report. Among the recipients were Southern California Republicans David G. Valadao and Michael Garcia, who are in tight contests to keep their seats. They’ve received $1.3 million and $1 million, respectively For the 2024 cycle, political donations from or supporting the crypto industry reached around $190 million and so far, crypto groups have spent over $130 million of that cash in congressional races for this year’s election, including the primaries.

Crypto's $130 million election binge has boosted Utah's John Curtis — John Curtis, a Republican congressman from Utah, has become a favorite of the crypto industry in his bid to win the Senate seat held by the departing Mitt Romney. He took a somewhat oblong route through the telecommunications sector to get there. At an event in Salt Lake City last week, Curtis told a few dozen crypto enthusiasts that he had a conversation a few years ago with some fellow House members about internet service providers and how to incentivize them to boost their offerings. The various lawmakers were throwing around different connection speeds — 50 megabits, 100 megabits — but when Curtis asked whether they'd ever run a speed test, he got puzzling responses. "They looked at me like I was from another planet," Curtis told the crowd at the Permissionless conference. U.S. Rep. John Curtis speaks during the Utah Senate primary debate for Republican contenders battling to win the seat of retiring U.S. Sen. Mitt Romney, June 10, 2024, in Salt Lake City. Rick Bowmer | AP Curtis, 64, said he realized then that lawmakers needed to be smarter about regulations and actually understand the user experience. That's particularly true in crypto, he said. "This is so important to get government involved, because if they don't understand what you're doing, they'll make really bad decisions," the Provo-based congressman said, as the attendees nodded their head in unison. "The worst part of regulation is its unpredictability." Curtis' attitude toward crypto is a big reason why digital coin enthusiasts have filled his coffers in his campaign against Democratic candidate Caroline Gleich, setting him up for what appears to be a landslide victory next month. The Defend American Jobs PAC, a single-issue committee focused on cryptocurrency and blockchain policy, has contributed more than $1.9 million to Curtis' campaign, according to Federal Election Commission data compiled by crypto market and blockchain analyst James Delmore and verified by CNBC. Additionally, the PAC spent more than $1.5 million to oppose Curtis' Republican primary challenger, Trent Staggs. Crypto PAC money backs Utah Senate candidate and others across U.S.WATCH NOW VIDEO02:04 Crypto PAC money backs Utah Senate candidate and others across U.S. Ben Lucas, Curtis' campaign spokesman, declined an interview on behalf of the congressman. He sent a statement from Corey Norman, the chief of staff, saying that, "John has always been a strong supporter of the crypto industry as it will help Utah's economy continue to grow and be a great place to create jobs." The sprawling and decentralized digital asset industry is backing Curtis and others who are publicly adopting a pro-crypto policy within their campaigns. The crypto industry accounts for nearly half of all donations made by corporations this election cycle as the sector outpaces both the big banks and oil. Of the 42 primary candidates that crypto-backed super PACs supported, they were successful in 36. In total, crypto groups have spent over $130 million in congressional races for this year's election, including the primaries, according to FEC data. Venture firm Andreessen Horowitz found in its recent State of Crypto report that more than 40 million Americans hold crypto, a group that's young and bipartisan. The report said 51% of them indicated they're likely to throw their weight behind crypto-friendly candidates. Curtis says the best thing the industry can do is police itself, and then come to lawmakers with the right kind of guardrails, striking a balance of safety and security without excessive regulation. Three crypto PACs, which are primarily backed by Coinbase , Ripple, and Andreessen Horowitz, have been targeting competitive Senate and House races across the U.S. Protect Progress has given more than $10 million apiece to Senate candidates in Arizona and Michigan. In Arizona, the group favors Democrat Ruben Gallego, who is vying for the seat being vacated by Kyrsten Sinema. In Michigan, the preferred choice is Elissa Slotkin, who is currently a Democratic House member. U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) becomes emotional as the crowd cheers on Day 4 of the Democratic National Convention (DNC) at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois, U.S., August 22, 2024. Kevin Wurm | Reuters The Republican candidates in Indiana and West Virginia have each received more than $3 million from Defend American Jobs. In Massachusetts, a super PAC for Republican John Deaton has pulled in $2.6 million from the crypto industry. Deaton, however, is polling way behind Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who is one of the crypto sector's top antagonists in Washington. "Elizabeth Warren is not going to lose her election in Massachusetts, so the industry can't get rid of Warren," said Delmore. "But they can at least help to vote out candidates who are allied with her against the crypto industry." One big target is Ohio Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, the chair of the banking committee. Some $40 million of crypto money has been directed at defeating Brown, and one PAC has paid for five ads designed to boost awareness of his Republican rival, Bernie Moreno, a blockchain entrepreneur. The race is currently very close and is crucial in determining which party will control the Senate. In House races, around $3.6 million in crypto PAC money has gone to candidates in Arizona, $5.4 million in New York, more than $4.8 million in Virginia, and $5.7 million in California, with half of that spend going to Republican Michelle Park Steel. Crypto PAC money has been party agnostic and not just focused on battleground districts. The focus is on supporting lawmakers who embrace regulation that favors the technology rather than getting in its way. "When we talk about digital assets, when we talk about crypto, that is not about Republicans and Democrats," said House Majority Whip Rep. Tom Emmer (R-Minn.), at Permissionless. "That's about Americans, that's about decentralization of a system that has been, literally, consolidated at the top."

Senate battle goes from bad to worse for Democrats --Senate Democrats are facing an increasingly tough road to keeping their majority in the upper chamber as races in crucial swing states tighten with just two weeks until Election Day.The path to 51 seats was always going to be a long shot for Democrats, who are facing a difficult Senate map featuring multiple incumbents in solidly GOP territory. But now Democrats are also dealing with Republican candidates in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin quickly closing the gap. The nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report this month shifted both races from “lean Democrat” to “toss-up.” Along with Michigan, the “blue wall” states are now all in the “toss-up” category.This is heaping pressure on the party to hold the fort in the final stretch. “This is never going to be easy,” Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) told reporters Tuesday at the Capitol. “But I believe these races are essentially tied. … To me, it feels like it’s 50-50 all the time.”“This is an unpredictable world. I don’t know what’s going to happen,” said Bennet, who previously served as chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.Democrats have long acknowledged the problems of the map. Republicans need to win only two more seats to control the chamber, and Sen. Joe Manchin’s (I-W.Va.) retirement certainly will put that state in the Republican column.All four seats rated as “toss-ups” by Cook are held by Democrats. Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) is fighting to keep his seat in a state that has trended solidly red in recent years, and Cook last month shifted Montana, where Democratic Sen. Jon Tester is fighting for a fourth term, to “lean Republican.”Tightening polls in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, as well as for the open seat in Michigan, are exacerbating those problems.According to Decision Desk HQ/The Hill, Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) leads Republican challenger Eric Hovde by only 1.8 points after leading by about 5 points a month ago. In Pennsylvania, DDHQ/The Hill’s average of polls shows Sen. Bob Casey (D) leading Republican David McCormick by 3.3 points, down from a 10-point margin in August.Strategists on both sides of the aisle say Republicans are closing the gap between their numbers and former President Trump’s, who is expected to run ahead of all of them. This has given Republicans life at an opportune time, though they caution the races have some differences. “We have all the momentum [in Wisconsin and Michigan] … and compared to where we were six months ago, we’re in a very strong spot,” one GOP operative said. “Pennsylvania’s different. It’s a really close race. It’s hard to know. Casey’s just there. He doesn’t look liberal, and he’s been there for a long time.”Pennsylvania is the latest to see a tightening in recent surveys, with McCormick finally being within shouting distance of Trump after struggling for months to bring some of the former president’s supporters fully behind him. Political observers have also pointed to Casey’s recent ad showing off that he agrees with the ex-president on trade and tariffs as a sign of the shifting tide in the Keystone State. Some Democrats, however, thought it was smart for the three-term senator, especially given the current state of play.

GOP leaders plan for Trump's first 100 days in potential majority -- Senate and House Republicans are setting the table for what they hope — and increasingly expect — will be unified GOP control of the White House and Congress after the election. Republican leaders in both chambers are mapping out an agenda for Donald Trump’s first 100 days back in office, and they expect to move quickly on a massive budget reconciliation package that would fulfill his promise of cutting taxes by trillions of dollars. Staff for Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.), Senate GOP Whip John Thune (S.D.), Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) met recently to map out their agenda for 2025 if Election Day is a big success for their party, according to sources familiar with discussions. In addition, Johnson, who has said he intends to run for reelection as Speaker if Republicans keep the House, has kept in regular contact with Trump in the run-up to the election, and Scalise, another Trump ally, says he has spoken to the GOP presidential nominee about his top priorities for 2025. GOP policymakers are looking at funding a major new border security initiative that would include completion of Trump’s signature border wall and possibly defunding parts of the government that Trump allies argue have become “weaponized” under the Biden administration. But the top priority of Republican leaders in both chambers will be to extend the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act — Trump’s signature legislative achievement — before it expires at the end of 2025. How far they go beyond that will be a subject of intense debate among Republican lawmakers in the months ahead, assuming Trump defeats Vice President Harris and Republicans win back control of the Senate and keep their House majority. “The plotting, the strategizing and trying to get prepared for [budget] reconciliation has been going for several months,” a Senate GOP aide said. “Over the August recess and over this October recess, those efforts have been ramping up a lot.

House GOP braces for bitter fight over the power to oust a speaker - House Republicans are gearing up for an intra-party war early next year over the ability to defenestrate a speaker. While the majority of Republicans despise the tool, which has single-handedly caused repeated chaos this Congress, a number of conservatives are prepared to fight to keep it. Speaker Mike Johnson and other leadership allies have openly signaled that they want to raise the number of members required to force a vote on deposing a speaker; currently, a single lawmaker can call for a referendum. But that fight is inextricably tied to Johnson’s ambitions to remain speaker — the members who want to see the rule to remain as it is are some of the same ones who haven’t committed to supporting his bid for the gavel, and they’re not afraid to leverage that power. It’s not hard to see why most Republicans want to change the rule. The so-called motion to vacate allows a small faction of lawmakers to highly influence the agenda and strips power from leadership. Johnson himself has publicly said that the tool has “harmed this office and our House majority.” Right now, there are enough conservatives who oppose changes to block any adjustments to the status quo. In interviews with POLITICO, five Republicans said they believe that group is big enough that it would also be highly difficult to change the rule next year. One GOP lawmaker said there are at least eight members who will automatically oppose any adjustments. Of course, House Republicans have to keep control if they want to set the rules — but if they succeed in November, it all sets the stage for a huge fight in the coming months. The debate would not only influence whether Johnson could be speaker in the next Congress, but also leadership’s power to shape the conference’s agenda over the wishes of frequently rebellious hardliners. In short, if Johnson or other leaders can’t overcome the right flank’s red line, they’re set for another potentially chaotic Congress.

Abercrombie ex-CEO Mike Jeffries charged with sex trafficking --Former Abercrombie & Fitch CEO Mike Jeffries and two other men were arrested on charges of sex trafficking and interstate prostitution that allegedly occurred when Jeffries was leading the iconic clothing brand, authorities said Tuesday.Jeffries, 80, and his romantic partner Matthew Smith are accused of coercing men into sex acts and paying for dozens of others to travel around the world to have sex with them for money, often leading the men to believe it would result in modeling work for Abercrombie. The third defendant, James Jacobson, 71, was employed to recruit men "to perform commercial sex acts" for Jeffries and the 61-year-old Smith, according to a graphic, 16-count indictment in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of New York.The indictment, which alleges criminal conduct spanning from 2008 to 2015, says that in some instances Jeffries and Smith engaged in "non-consensual" sexual activity with the men, who were trafficked in the U.S. and to England, France, Italy, Morocco and St. Barts at the cost of millions of dollars."Many of the victims, at least one of whom was as young as 19 years old, were financially vulnerable and aspired to become models in the fashion industry, a notoriously cut-throat world," prosecutors wrote in a court filing."Indeed, some of the men they recruited had previously worked at Abercrombie stores or modeled for Abercrombie."U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of New York, Breon Peace, speaks during a news conference regarding the indictment of the former CEO of Abercrombie & Fitch, Mike Jeffries on sex trafficking and prostitution charges, in Brooklyn, New York, U.S., October 22, 2024. Jeffries served as CEO from 1992 through 2014 at Abercrombie. The company is in the midst of a comeback underCEO Fran Horowitz, who took the reins in 2017.All three defendants face a mandatory minimum sentence of 15 years in prison if convicted of sex trafficking, and the potential for a life sentence on that charge alone. The criminal case comes a year after the clothing company, Jeffries and Smith were sued in Manhattan federal court for allegedly turning a blind eye to sexual misconduct by the former CEO.Jeffries and Smith are accused in that civil class-action complaint of operating a sex trafficking ring that exploited young men who had hoped to become models for the company."The message from today's prosecution is clear: Sexually exploiting vulnerable human beings is a crime, and doing so by dangling of dreams of a future in fashion or modeling or any other business is no different," Breon Peace, U.S. attorney for the Eastern District of New York, said at a news conference Tuesday.

Luxury Cars & Wild Parties: $22 Million Crypto Scam Dupes 40,000 Investors - A gang of convicted Austrian fraudsters financed their luxurious life with money acquired from a giant crypto scam. Among other luxuries they purchased were a shark tank, a villa, a luxury car, private jet travels, and nights at club parties, Heute, an Austrian news outlet, reported on October 23. Around 40,000 people were reportedly victimized by the scheme, with around $21.6 million (20 million euros) accumulated from the fraud. The operation of the fraudulent investment scheme was based on investments in the EXW Wallet, as well as in EXW crypto tokens and real estate projects. EXW promises an attractive 0.1% to 0.32% daily return, which catches the attention of most investors. Following its activation in 2019, the EXW Wallet began to fail in 2020. After adding suspects, authorities accused eight people in September 2023 with money laundering, pyramid scheme operations, and commercial fraud.By October 23, the Klagenfurt Regional Court had convicted five of those accused in the fraud. Two received five-year prison terms without parole, while two others received sentences of 30 months. An additional defendant received 18 months, while five were acquitted. Of three prior convictions with the defendants, three were counted towards the sentence, and some of the convicted are reportedly planning appeals.As Heute called it, “Austria’s biggest fraud trial” took longer than a year: 60 days in court, 300 long hours of negotiations, and 3,000 case files. According to Prosecutor Caroline Czedik-Eysenberg, the scam wasn’t simple since it involved operations in several countries without extradition treaties, such as the UAE.To further obfuscate the financial trails, the fraudsters used encrypted Telegram communications and even enlisted the assistance of companies who are expert in the field. Some carried funds in plastic bags to Austria, the report disclosed.Czedik-Eysenberg described the operation as never intending to pursue profitable projects, with initial promises only meant to attract victims. Defense attorneys argue that some defendants merely lost control as the scheme got too big for them to handle.

Historic bitcoin theft tied to Connecticut kidnapping, luxury cars, $500K bar bills - Two young men accused of committing one of the largest person-to-person crypto thefts in U.S. history went on a brazen spending spree that included buying exotic cars and a $2 million wristwatch, renting mansions and running up nightclub tabs of hundreds of thousands of dollars apiece, new court records reveal.The Aug. 18 cyber heist swindled a Washington, D.C., resident out of $230 million in cryptocurrency. To date, at least $100 million in bitcoin stolen from the victim remains unaccounted for, prosecutors said in a recent court filing in District of Columbia federal court. Police now say that another crime, the mysterious Aug. 25 kidnapping of a Connecticut couple in broad daylight while they were house hunting, may be connected to the Washington crypto theft. The couple was driving a Lamborghini they said was rented by their son at the time they were carjacked and abducted. The accused kidnappers "targeted" the couple "because the co-conspirators believed the victims' son had access to significant amounts of digital currency," an indictment against the six defendants in that case says. Those men, all from Florida, "planned to kidnap the victims ... and hold the victims against their will at a house rented" by one of the men "and then demand payment in the form of digital currency from the son of [the couple] in return for the safety," the indictment in Connecticut federal court says. In addition to federal conspiracy and carjacking charges, the six men also face state criminal charges related to the kidnapping, which occurred a week after the heist of 4,100 bitcoins from the victim in Washington, D.C. The six Florida men charged in the kidnapping have not been charged in connection with the cryptocurrency theft. Nor has the unidentified son of the couple who was abducted.On Sept. 19, just a month after the crypto heist, the U.S. Attorney's Office for the District of Columbia announced that the FBI had arrested two men — Malone Lam, 20, and Jeandiel Serrano, 21 — on conspiracy charges related to the alleged theft and subsequent laundering of the stolen bitcoin.Serrano, who uses the online monikers "VersaceGod" and "@SkidStar," was wearing a $500,000 watch at the time of his arrest in Los Angeles, where he lives, according to prosecutors.A month before they were arrested, Serrano, Lam and other, unnamed, co-conspirators targeted a man in Washington "because they believed he held a considerable amount of virtual currency" after they "identified him as a high net-worth investor from the early days of cryptocurrency," court filings say. In early August, one co-conspirator caused an "unauthorized Google account access" notification to be sent to the victim, making it appear that the purported access attempts had occurred overseas, a court filing said. "In reality, this was just the conspirators laying the groundwork for their imminent theft through sophisticated social engineering," prosecutors wrote in a filing. On Aug. 18, members of the conspiracy called the man, claiming they were from Google's security team, and asking him about the recent unauthorized access attempts. "Through a series of prompts and misrepresentations," the co-conspirators managed to manipulate the man into giving them enough information to access his Google drive, "where they quickly located personal financial information, including the location of his virtual currency holdings with Gemini," a crypto exchange, a filing said. Serrano and other scheme participants then called the man back and Serrano posed as a member of Gemini's support team, prosecutors said. While he talked to the victim, Serrano and his co-conspirators were communicating with each other on the Discord and Telegram messaging apps, strategizing on ways to "manipulate the victim into providing private keys to his virtual currency holdings and enough computer access for the conspirators to steal his entire savings," the filing said.

Stripe's $1.1 billion deal for Bridge marks much-needed win for VC - In March 2022, venture capitalist Chris Ahn was pushing to get into a hot crypto startup that was trying to make it easy for businesses to transact using digital currencies. The company was Bridge Network. As part of his pitch, Ahn flew to a small town in northern Montana with a term sheet in hand for founders Zach Abrams and Sean Yu, who had both previously worked at Coinbase and Block . "Nobody else had flown out to see them in person," Ahn, who was a partner at Index Ventures at the time, recounted in an interview on Tuesday. The three of them hiked together on a path with melting snow, and then conversed over drinks and dinner, as Ahn aimed to convince the founding duo that they should take Index's money. At the restaurant, he looked to seal the deal. "I told them I was going to the bathroom, and I ran over to my car, grabbed the term sheet and came back," Ahn said. "It's hard to fit a piece of paper in a jacket without crumbling it, and I didn't want to give them a crumpled piece of paper, so I left it in the car." Index landed the investment, getting into Bridge's seed round in 2022. The firm was part of a more recent round, in August of this year, that included Sequoia and Ribbit Capital and valued Bridge at about $350 million, according to a person with knowledge of the matter who asked not to be named because the valuation was confidential. Also in the deal was Haun Ventures, founded by former Andreessen Horowitz partner Katie Haun. Ahn left Index to join Haun in 2022. Both his old firm and his new employer have reason to celebrate this week, after Stripe agreed to buy Bridge for $1.1 billion. With that outcome, Index and Haun are poised to triple their investment in a matter of months. An Index spokesperson declined to comment. It's a particularly notable exit for venture investors during an extended IPO drought, and marks a big win for crypto, which has had few of them despite bundles of cash pouring into the industry. For Stripe, one of the most richly valued tech startups, the Bridge purchase will be its largest to date. Bridge said the transaction is still subject to regulatory approvals and other conditions and is expected to close in the coming months.

Payment fintechs invest in stablecoin, but where are the users? -- Stripe, Circle and Ripple all made deals in recent days to boost scale for a form of cryptocurrency that has struggled to reach mainstream consumers and businesses. Stablecoins have yet to take off outside of the cryptoverse, but that's not for a lack of trying.

BankThink: Compliance is banking's superpower; that goes double in an era of AI - Banks' compliance teams have often been the source of innovative technologies with applications far beyond financial services. That is likely to hold true with artificial intelligence-related compliance solutions.

Don't blame vendors for AI bias, Adrienne Harris tells bankers - Adrienne Harris, New York's Superintendent of Banking, has some stern words for banks about vendor management and AI risk. At the Most Powerful Women in Banking conference this week, New York's top banking regulator said banks need to take full responsibility for the artificial intelligence models they use, even if they bought them from a third party. New York's Banking Superintendent Adrienne Harris, shared her AI regulation priorities with American Banker Editor-in-Chief Chana Schoenberger at the Most Powerful Women in Banking conference on Tuesday.

Fed cites bank named in Ponzi scheme suit -The Federal Reserve issued an enforcement action against a Washington state bank that was recently used to facilitate an alleged Ponzi scheme. The Federal Reserve said it identified consumer compliance deficiencies in a recent examination of Washington State-based UniBank.

FDIC cites three Texas banks over risk management, liquidity — Three Texas banks are facing regulatory scrutiny after the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Texas Department of Banking Friday issued consent orders against the firms for various risk management deficiencies. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and Texas banking regulators issued consent orders against Industry State Bank, Fayetteville Bank and Citizens State Bank, requiring major overhauls of their management, capital and risk controls.

BankThink: State efforts to set rules for national banks are a dangerous trend -- Why are America's financial system and economy the strongest in the world? In a word, choice. Our market-driven system provides maximum choice to consumers and businesses — including the choice for businesses like banks to operate under uniform national rules that minimize the cost, disruption and confusion of a patchwork of local rules. The freedom to choose a single set of national standards yields efficiencies that benefit American consumers and businesses, both economically and operationally. Two former comptrollers of the currency argue that state-level efforts to regulate nationally chartered banks fly in the face of both the law and good sense, threatening to take the country back to the era of "wildcat" banking.

OCC's Hsu endorses federal standards for money transmission licenses -- Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu said the bankruptcy of Synapse earlier this year highlights regulatory gaps around the state-based licensing of businesses that transfer money.

Basel head urges capital rule finalization 'as soon as possible' -- The new chief of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision is urging the world's top economies to "lock in" the latest version of the group's international standards "as soon as possible." The new chair of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision called for member nations to finish the job of implementing post-financial crisis regulations. He also warned them not to put economic goals over safety considerations.

CFPB's Chopra wants Basel rule finalized 'as quickly as possible' - Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra said Wednesday that he favors finalizing the Basel III endgame bank capital proposal with revisions rather than re-proposing the rule and starting the rulemaking process again. Chopra said regulators urgently need to implement the Basel III endgame bank capital proposal, suggesting his opposition to the revised rule centers on the process of re-proposal rather than more substantive opposition to suggested revisions.

Unlikely allies support stricter federal oversight of ILCs - In an unusual alliance, banking trade groups and consumer advocates are speaking out in favor of a proposed Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. regulation that would tighten the screws on the corporate parents of industrial loan companies. Industry groups and consumer advocates are joining forces in support of proposed regulatory changes.

'Open banking' rules for consumer data unveiled by US watchdog (Reuters) - The top U.S. consumer finance watchdog on Tuesday unveiled long-awaited rules that would make it easier for consumers to switch between financial services providers, a move the agency said was aimed at boosting competition. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's "open banking" rule governs data sharing between fintech firms and traditional banks, allowing consumers to easily transfer their personal data between providers free of charge. Banks, which stand to lose out, were quick to criticize the rule, saying it could jeopardize consumer data security and exceeded the agency's legal powers, while fintech groups praised it, saying it would promote the safe transfer of consumer data. A pair of U.S. banking groups, the Bank Policy Institute and the Kentucky Bankers Association, filed a lawsuit in U.S. District Court late Tuesday challenging the rule, arguing the regulator overstepped its authority. The groups asked the court to halt the rule from taking effect. CFPB Director Rohit Chopra compared the new rule to regulations that now allow mobile phone users to switch providers while keeping the same number, and said the change should help bring U.S. payments systems more in line with advances in other developed countries. He also said the rule incorporates strong privacy protections and consumer choices. "A company that ingests a consumer's data can use the data to provide the product or service the consumer asked for, but not for unrelated purposes the consumer doesn't want," he said in a speech at a financial technology event held by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. First proposed a year ago, the new rules were 14 years in the making, having been called for in the 2010 Wall Street reforms enacted following the 2008 financial crisis. According to the CFPB, the rules would also allow consumers to borrow on better terms, for example by allowing lenders to issue loans using data held by other financial institutions, and to make payments directly from their bank accounts rather than by card. Consumers will also be able to revoke access to their data immediately, the CFPB said. Ahead of the announcement, CFPB officials said the agency had made some changes to the version originally proposed in response to concerns from industry and public comment, sparing banks with less than $850 million in assets from having to provide data, for example. Companies will also have more time than originally proposed to come into compliance. Larger financial technology companies will have until 2026, while the smallest will have until 2030. Republican chair of the U.S. House Financial Services Committee Patrick McHenry welcomed the announcement, calling for Congress to codify the new rule's protections into law. "This is progress for American innovation and consumers but we can't stop here," he said in a statement. Data aggregators, such as Plaid and Akoya, which provide connections among banks and financial tech services, and the Financial Technology Association, whose members include aggregators and payments companies like PayPal, praised the rule, saying it would promote the secure transfer of consumer data. But other trade groups said they were not happy. Lindsey Johnson, head of the Consumer Bankers Association, said in a statement the CFPB had "contorted" the congressional statute authorizing the rule to enable "thousands of third parties' to access consumers' data." The American Fintech Council (AFC), on the other hand, complained the consumer data provisions were too restrictive, including by improperly barring the "secondary use" of consumer data for cross-selling services and targeted advertising. .

CFPB's Chopra: 1033 will stop 'incumbents' who 'exploit' data— Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra framed the vocal opposition to the bureau's newly finalized open banking rule as an attempt by financial firms to maintain their dominant position over consumers and smaller competitors. Chopra said opposition to the bureau's recently finalized open banking rule should be viewed as banks and other large firms attempting to quash competition and stymie consumer data protection.

CFPB's 1033 open banking final rule expands scope to payment apps -The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau added payment apps and other financial products to its final open banking rule and in keeping with its focus on innovation, provided for some secondary uses of data. The CFPB expanded the scope of the 1033 rule to include payment apps, provides for some secondary uses of data, and extends the timeline for compliance.

CFPB's 1033 rule sparks ire from banks over data security - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's open banking rule provided no additional liability protection for banks, putting the financial institutions on the hook for potential fraud and data breaches of third-party fintechs and setting up a clash with the bureau. JPMorgan Chase and bank trade groups criticized the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's open banking rule for not providing enough data security.

CFPB's open banking rule faces suit from Bank Policy Institute - The Bank Policy Institute, the Kentucky Bankers Association and a community bank in Lexington, Kentucky, filed a lawsuit late Tuesday against the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and Director Rohit Chopra, challenging the agency's open banking rule.

Trade groups challenge CFPB’s open banking rule on Day 1 | Banking Dive -The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s final open banking rule didn’t go a full day before facing a legal challenge from the banking industry Tuesday. The Bank Policy Institute, the Kentucky Bankers Association and Lexington, Kentucky-based Forcht Bank filed a lawsuit Tuesday in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Kentucky, charging the CFPB with overstepping its authority and asserting the rule would put consumers and the banking system at risk.The CFPB declined to comment on the lawsuit Wednesday.David Sewell, a partner and U.S. head of the financial services regulatory practice at law firm Freshfields, said the lawsuit “will be a really interesting test case,” since the open banking rule is one of the highest-profile and most controversial regulatory moves announced since the Supreme Court overturned the Chevron doctrine in June. That the lawsuit was filed in Kentucky, rather than in Washington, D.C., points to a “much greater willingness of the industry to sort of test what are perceived to be more friendly circuits and district courts and bring challenges there,” Sewell said.The rule, rolled out Tuesday, is nearly 600 pages, and much of it seems to address comments the CFPB received during the rulemaking process – indicating the agency expected litigation and may have been trying to get ahead of it, Sewell said. The rule requires financial institutions, credit card issuers and other firms to transfer personal financial data to other providers for free at the consumer’s request. That applies to data linked to bank accounts, credit cards, mobile wallets and payment apps. The CFPB argues the rule will give consumers greater control over their financial data by requiring banks to share deposit account and credit card data. The greater freedom of movement can stoke competition, enabling consumers to comparison-shop which, in turn, will prod providers into offering better products, the bureau said.Consumer advocacy groups and fintech trade associations praised the requirement Tuesday, but banking industry groups such as the Consumer Bankers Association and the American Bankers Association blasted the rule, saying it “misses the mark” and “longstanding concerns about scope, liability, and cost remain largely unaddressed.”The banking industry’s willingness to challenge financial services regulators has skyrocketed in recent years, and almost any rule of consequence is likely to be challenged at this point, particularly one as high-priority and potentially costly to the industry as the open banking rule, Sewell said.One big concern on the part of banks is the liability question: Once data leaves a bank’s environment, will a consumer affected by a breach somewhere downstream look to blame the bank? It’s not hard to imagine class-action litigation, said Jonah Crane, a partner at financial services advisory firm Klaros Group. Sewell said he wasn’t surprised that banks didn’t get more liability protection in the final rule, since that’s an argument the bureau and its director, Rohit Chopra, haven’t seemed to display patience for. However, Sewell said he does see it as a meaningful risk for banks. Bank trade groups Tuesday were quick to note the potential data security issues they see with the requirement, if they’re forced to hand over sensitive customer data to any third party; it was a key issue flagged in the lawsuit. However, third-party oversight frameworks have been developed in other industries, such as healthcare, to address these downstream concerns, Crane noted, so there are likely solutions to such issues in the banking arena.“It’s not a trivial challenge,” but it’s “not the kind of challenge we haven’t faced in other areas,” Crane said.Industry rhetoric around open banking has been mostly around bank switching, but Crane said he “just [doesn’t] see that as the primary impact.”“Open banking is really about allowing all those different solutions to be connected to each other in a way that makes it more seamless, and hopefully secure,” he said.Interpretations around secondary use of data and consumer requests to delete it – and how far those extend – will be crucial, Crane said. Banks and credit unions with less than $850 million in assets are exempt from the rule. However, Crane expressed concern that that would leave them behind in the long run. If bank customers come to expect that their data can be made available, and small banks don’t take part because they’re not required to, those lenders could fall behind in “a new, unbundled world,” rather than figuring out how to survive in it, he said. “Banks have, for a long time, been kind of missing out on the opportunity side of this equation, and always seeing open banking as a threat rather than an opportunity,” he said. Crane expressed hope, though, that, as open banking standards are adopted across the industry, solutions will become available to small banks through their core providers.

What the CFPB's open banking rule will do to data privacy, security - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) released its final open banking rule on Tuesday, requiring banks over the next six years to allow customers to share their financial information with third parties like budgeting app providers, lenders and even other financial institutions. A ban on screen scraping and new disclosures to consumers about data usage are among the new elements of the data protection rule.

Open banking rule unlikely to spur payment innovation - Pay by bank has been touted as one of the alternative payment methods to compete with credit cards, and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's finalized rule on open banking was supposed to help drive innovation in the space. Payment experts think it missed the mark. Section 1033 promised to increase competition in banking and improve the ability to offer novel payment methods, but experts say the regulation isn't clear enough to have a major impact.

CFPB issues guidance on modern-day worker surveillance -The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau issued guidance Thursday warning companies about legal requirements when using technology to track their workers' performance, a practice that has become more widespread with the emergence of the so-called gig economy. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau warned companies about modern-day surveillance of workers and requirements to follow the Fair Credit Reporting Act.

Goldman Sachs likely to pay CFPB fine over credit card business lapses - Goldman Sachs Group is expected to pay a fine tied to a Consumer Financial Protection Bureau probe into its credit-card business, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.

CFPB hits Apple, Goldman Sachs over Apple Card failures -- The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau said Goldman Sachs failed to investigate tens of thousands of disputes, while Apple misled iPhone purchasers about interest-free payment options. The two companies were ordered to pay $89 million.

Townstone Financial may settle redlining case with CFPB - A Chicago area mortgage lender that emerged victorious in a redlining complaint last year may now settle those claims with a federal regulator. A federal appeals court this year reversed Townstone Financial's earlier victory, ruling the regulator had authority to apply a lending law to prospective applicants.

MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 0.34% in September - From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 0.34% in September - The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance increased to 0.34% as of September 30, 2024. According to MBA’s estimate, 170,000 homeowners are in forbearance plans. Mortgage servicers have provided forbearance to approximately 8.3 million borrowers since March 2020. The share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance remained the same as the previous month at 0.13% in September 2024. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance increased by 10 basis points to 0.76%, and the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) increased 2 basis points to 0.37%. “The percentage of loans in forbearance increased for the fourth consecutive month,” “Since May 2024, Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance increased by almost 40 basis points, compared to six basis points for portfolio and PLS loans and three basis points for Fannie and Freddie loans.” “We are seeing some weakening in loan performance, particularly among government products. Overall government loan performance reached a new low for the year in September. In addition, the share of government post-forbearance workouts that are current dropped considerably over the past four months. These trends indicate that some homeowners are exhibiting signs of distress – whether because of economic hardships, natural disasters, or other reasons.” At the end of August, there were about 170,000 homeowners in forbearance plans.

ICE: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increased in September - From ICE: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: September Sees Prepayments at Two-Year High, Slowly Rising Mortgage Delinquencies
• The national delinquency rate rose 14 basis points to 3.48% in September, up 4.3% from August and 5.7% year over year
• September marked the fourth consecutive year-over-year rise in mortgage delinquencies, the longest such stretch since early 2018 outside of the initial impact of the COVID pandemic
• A 5.9% bump brought serious delinquencies (90+ days past due but not yet in active foreclosure) to a 16-month high and delivered a second consecutive month of year-over-year increases
• 30-day delinquencies hit a three-month high and 60-days were at the highest since January 2021; foreclosure activity remained muted, with both starts and sales/completions down in September
• The number of loans in active foreclosure was up marginally (+0.4%) month over month but down 12.5% from this time last year and still 34% below pre-pandemic levels
• Prepayment activity rose to a level not seen since August 2022; a +2.5% increase from the month prior and up +43.2% from last September.
Here is a table from ICE.

Mortgage Rates Explode to 6.82%, 10-Year Treasury Yield Jumps to 4.20%, +55 Basis Points since Monster Rate Cut by Wolf Richter – (4 graphs) The 10-year Treasury yield jumped today by about 12 basis points, to 4.20% at the moment, the highest since July 26, up by 55 basis points from September 17, on the eve of the big-fat rate cut, when the 10-year yield had bottomed out at 3.65%. Today’s action may have been driven by hawkish commentary by Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan on the future of the Fed’s QT (article coming), by renewed fretting about inflation, and by concerns about the recklessly ballooning government debt that would pile up new supply, or by whatever.Markets move in a mysterious way, and the “why” may remain elusive, but we do see the outcome, and we know that QT, inflation, and supply are the triple enemies of bondholders (blue = effective federal funds rate which the Fed targets with its headline policy rate):Mortgage rates, oh my. There goes the housing market, what’s left of it. The daily measure of the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumped by 14 basis points today, to 6.82%, the highest since July 26, and up by 71 basis points from the eve of the Fed’s mega rate cut.At the time of the rate cut, this daily measure of mortgage rates by Mortgage News Daily had dropped by 187 basis points from the peak in October a year ago, to 6.11%, on just a wing and a prayer, having priced in 2% inflation forevermore and many rate cuts.So now, with a 50-basis point cut under the belt, and with smaller fewer cuts being outlined for the future, and with CPI inflation having risen on a month-to-month basis for the third month in a row, it’s time to unwind some of the exuberant craziness?The 6-month yield and 30-year yield un-invert. The 30-year Treasury yield today jumped about 11 basis points to 4.50% (red), now matching the 6-month yield (blue). So this is another piece of the yield curve that has now un-inverted.Normally, the 30-year yield is far higher than the 6-month yield. But in July 2022, with the rate hikes pushing up the 6-month yield, and the 30-year yield following more slowly, the pair inverted when the 6-month yield became higher than the 30-year yield. Now the pair has un-inverted.This came as a shock to real-estate folks who’d promised lower mortgage rates once the rate cuts start, as the rate cuts would drive down mortgage rates even further. They’d hoped that the yield curve would un-invert with short-term yields plunging on densely-spaced monster rate cuts, and long-term yields falling more slowly but still falling a lot.Instead, the yield curve is un-inverting with short-term yields falling with the Fed’s rate cuts and dialed-back expectations of rate cuts, while long-term yields are rising on inflation fears, Qt, and the dreaded onslaught of supply of new debt to fund the huge and reckless deficits.Only the Treasury yields in the 3-year to 5-year range were still below 4%, by just a hair.The 1-year yield rose to 4.25%, as the Treasury market has been backpedaling on rate-cut expectations. Since September 24, it has risen by 37 basis points.The 2-year yield jumped 7 basis points to 4.04%, the highest since August 19. But it has roughly been in this range since October 9.The pair of the 2-year yield and the 10-year yield had un-inverted on September 6, at the time because the 2-year yield had plunged amid rate-cut-mania and continued to plunge until the eve of the actual rate cut. Since then, it has risen by 48 basis points.

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey -- From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey- Mortgage applications decreased 6.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending October 18, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 6.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 7 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 8 percent from the previous week and was 90 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week and was 3 percent higher than the same week one year ago. “Mortgage rates saw mixed results last week, but the 30-year fixed rate remained unchanged at 6.52 percent. Application activity decreased to its lowest level since July, as both purchase and refinance applications saw declines,” “Purchase applications continued to run stronger than last year’s pace for the fifth consecutive week. Even though rates have been on a recent upswing, they are over a full percentage point lower than a year ago, which has kept some homebuyers in the market. For-sale inventory has started to loosen, and home-price growth has eased in some markets, providing more options for buyers in combination with these lower rates.” ... The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) remained unchanged at 6.52 percent, with points decreasing to 0.64 from 0.65 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The effective rate remained unchanged from last week. The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index. According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 3% year-over-year unadjusted. Purchase application activity is up about 5% from the lows in late October 2023, but still about 13% below the lowest levels during the housing bust. The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index increased significantly as mortgage rates declined last month but decreased over the last four weeks as rates increased.’

Housing Oct 21st Weekly Update: Inventory Up 1.0% Week-over-week, Up 33.4% Year-over-year - Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.0% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 49.7% from the February seasonal bottom. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 33.4% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 34.0%), and down 21.0% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 22.6%). Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is closing.This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of October 18th, inventory was at 739 thousand (7-day average), compared to 732 thousand the prior week. Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.84 million SAAR in September, New Cycle Low - From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Slid 1.0% in September - Existing-home sales drew back in September, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Three out of four major U.S. regions registered sales declines while the West experienced a sales bounce. Year-over-year, sales fell in three regions but grew in the West. Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – receded 1.0% from August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.84 million in September. Year-over-year, sales waned 3.5% (down from 3.98 million in September 2023). ... Total housing inventory registered at the end of September was 1.39 million units, up 1.5% from August and 23.0% from one year ago (1.13 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 4.3-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 4.2 months in August and 3.4 months in September 2023. This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994. Sales in September (3.84 million SAAR) were down 1.0% from the previous month and were 3.5% below the September 2023 sales rate. The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes. According to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.39 million in September from 1.37 million the previous month. Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer. The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory. Inventory was up 23.0% year-over-year (blue) in September compared to September 2023. Months of supply (red) increased to 4.3 months in September from 4.2 months the previous month. The sales rate was below the consensus forecast. I'll have more later.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.84 million SAAR in September, New Cycle Low; Median House Prices Increased 3.0% Year-over-Year - Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.84 million SAAR in September, New Cycle Low Excerpt: Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2023 and 2024. Sales declined 3.5% year-over-year compared to September 2023. This was the thirty-seventh consecutive month with sales down year-over-year.

New Home Sales Increase to 738,000 Annual Rate in September - The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 738 thousand. The previous three months were revised down.Sales of new single-family houses in September 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 738,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 4.1 percent above the revised August rate of 709,000 and is 6.3 percent above the September 2023 estimate of 694,000. The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate. New home sales were close to pre-pandemic levels. The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply The months of supply decreased in September to 7.6 months from 7.9 months in August. The all-time record high was 12.2 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.3 months in August 2020. This is well above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal)."The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of September was 470,000. This represents a supply of 7.6 months at the current sales rate. "Sales were above expectations of 710 thousand SAAR, however, sales for the three previous months were revised down.

New Home Sales Increase to 738,000 Annual Rate in September; Median New Home Price is Down 7% from the Peak due to Change in Mix - Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 738,000 Annual Rate in September Brief excerpt:The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 738 thousand. The previous three months were revised down. .. The next graph shows new home sales for 2023 and 2024 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). Sales in September 2024 were up 6.3% from September 2023. New home sales, seasonally adjusted, have increased year-over-year in 17 of the last 18 months. Note that this is the opposite of Existing Home sales that have been down year-over-year for thirty-seven consecutive months!

NMHC: "Apartment Market Conditions Continue to Loosen" --Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NMHC on Apartments: "Looser market conditions for the ninth consecutive quarter" Excerpt: From the NMHC: Though the Apartment Market Continues to Loosen, Deal Flow Increases for Third Consecutive Quarter as Debt and Equity Conditions Improve Apartment market conditions showed signs of improvement in the National Multifamily Housing Council’s (NMHC’s) October 2024 Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions. All but the Market Tightness (37) index indicated more favorable conditions this quarter, with Sales Volume (67), Equity Financing (63) and Debt Financing (77) all coming in above the breakeven level (50) ... The Market Tightness Index came in at 37 this quarter – below the breakeven level of 50 – indicating looser market conditions for the ninth consecutive quarter. While close to half of respondents (46%) thought market conditions were unchanged relative to three months ago, 40% of respondents thought markets have become looser, up from 27% in July. Fifteen percent of respondents reported tighter markets than three months ago.This index has been an excellent leading indicator for rents and vacancy rates, and this suggests higher vacancy rates and a further weakness in asking rents. This is the ninth consecutive quarter with looser conditions than the previous quarter. There is much more in the article.

AIA: Architecture Billings Declined in September; Multi-family Billings Declined for 26th Consecutive Month - Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Architecture firm billings worsened in September- The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score was 45.7 for the month, as the majority of firms continued to report declining billings. Despite recently announced rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, clients are still cautious about future projects. Inquiries into potential new projects continued to increase, but the pace has slowed since the beginning of the year. And the value of newly signed design contracts at firms decreased for the sixth consecutive month in September, although the pace of that decline has moderated somewhat over the last few months. However, firms continue to report average backlogs of 6.4 months, which remains above pre-pandemic historical averages and is a good indicator of existing work in the pipeline, even if new work coming in has slowed. Conditions remained soft across the country as well in September. Billings were softest at firms located in the West for the third consecutive month, followed by firms located in the Midwest. Business conditions may be close to turning positive at firms located in the South, though, where they only declined slightly this month. By firm specialization, firms with a multifamily residential specialization saw billings soften further in September, while billings also remained fairly weak at firms with a commercial/industrial specialization. Although billings continued to decline at firms with an institutional specialization as well, the pace of that decline remained more modest than at firms of other specializations, which has been the case since the beginning of the summer. ... The ABI score is a leading economic indicator of construction activity, providing an approximately nine-to-twelve-month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. The score is derived from a monthly survey of architecture firms that measures the change in the number of services provided to clients.
• Northeast (46.4); Midwest (45.0); South (49.5); West (42.6)
• Sector index breakdown: commercial/industrial (44.2); institutional (48.5); multifamily residential (41.7)
This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 45.7 in September, unchanged from 45.7 in August. Anything below 50 indicates a decrease in demand for architects' services. This index has indicated contraction for 23 of the last 24 months. This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions. This index usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months, so this index suggests a slowdown in CRE investment into 2025. Note that multi-family billing turned down in August 2022 and has been negative for twenty-six consecutive months (with revisions). This suggests we will see a further weakness in multi-family starts.

October Vehicle Sales Forecast: 15.9 million SAAR, Up 3.6% YoY -- From WardsAuto: October U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Forecast to Start Q4 with Small Gain (pay content). Brief excerpt: The fourth quarter is forecast to total 4.13 million units, 6.0% above year-ago’s 3.89 million, which was tamped down because of labor-related strikes at three automakers that pared inventory This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for October (Red). On a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis, the Wards forecast of 15.9 million SAAR, would be up 0.8% from last month, and up 3.6% from a year ago.

Retail: October Seasonal Hiring vs. Holiday Retail Sales -- Every year I track seasonal retail hiring for hints about holiday retail sales. At the bottom of this post is a graph showing the correlation between October seasonal hiring and holiday retail sales. Here is a graph of retail hiring for previous years based on the BLS employment report: This graph shows the historical net retail jobs added for October, November and December by year. Retailers hired 574 thousand seasonal workers last year (using BLS data, Not Seasonally Adjusted), and 156 thousand seasonal workers last October. Note that in the early '90s, retailers started hiring seasonal workers earlier - and the trend towards hiring earlier has continued. The following scatter graph is for the years 2005 through 2023 and compares October retail hiring with the real increase (inflation adjusted) for retail sales (Q4 over previous Q4). In general October hiring is a pretty good indicator of seasonal sales. R-square is 0.72 for this small sample. Note: This uses retail sales in Q4, and excludes autos, gasoline and restaurants. NOTE: The dot in the upper right - with real Retail sales up over 10% YoY is for 2020 - when retail sales soared due to the pandemic spending on goods (service spending was soft). When the October employment report is released on Friday, November 1st, I'll be looking at seasonal retail hiring for hints on what the retailers actually expect for the holiday season.

33,000 Boeing machinists vote down latest pro-company contract by 64 percent - In voting Wednesday, Boeing machinists rejected by 64 percent another pro-company contract presented to them by Boeing and the International Association of Machinists (IAM) bureaucrats and brokered by acting Labor Secretary Julie Su. This is the second sellout contract which workers have overwhelmingly rejected. Workers voted down the first by 95 percent in mid-September, forcing the union to call the strike of 33,000 workers. Wednesday’s deal again fell far short of workers’ demands. The 35 percent pay raise does not make up for years of stagnating wages alongside record inflation, the single extra floating holiday does not allow workers time to spend with their friends and families, and medical coverage has not kept up with the rising costs driven by the healthcare industry. In addition to demanding a minimum 40 percent raise, machinists are also calling for the restoration of their pensions stolen in 2014, when the IAM allowed Boeing to extort workers by threatening to move production of the 737 jetliner to its nonunion plant in South Carolina. In rejecting the deal, workers have dealt a powerful blow not just to Boeing management, but to the IAM bureaucracy and, above all, to US imperialism and the pro-corporate political establishment. Both Wall Street and the American government were relying on the union apparatus to end the strike, which has now gone on for six weeks, to clear up the supply chains for war. The key strategic issue now is bringing broader sections of the working class into a joint struggle with Boeing machinists. The growth of struggles across the global aerospace industry, including three strikes at Boeing supplier Eaton, mass layoffs at Airbus and a contract rejection at Embraer show the immense potential for Boeing workers to mobilize workers across the US and the world. This requires that workers begin organizing through the Boeing Workers Rank-and-File Committee to assert their democratic will over the conduct of the strike. As the committee wrote Monday in a statement calling for a no vote, “we propose … The mobilization of the working class behind our strike. We must fan out to the docks, the schools, the factories and other workplaces, setting up informational pickets and using other methods to urge them to support our fight.” The next stage of the strike will pit workers more directly against Wall Street and the White House. The lessons of past struggles, particularly that of the fight by railroaders in 2022, are critical. Then, in order to overwrite the democratic will of some 120,000 workers which rejected multiple sellout contracts, Congress stepped in to impose the contract and pre-emptively ban a strike. That struggle pit railroaders against the rail union bureaucrats, who worked with Washington to buy them the time they needed to prepare the legislation. In response, workers formed the Railroad Workers Rank-and-File Committee. Defeating government intervention, the Committee explained in its founding statement, “depends not only on organizing ourselves independently to ensure maximum unity and solidarity, but also that we hold no illusions in the bought-and-paid-for political stooges of Wall Street.”

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 227,000 --The DOL reported: In the week ending October 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 227,000, a decrease of 15,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 241,000 to 242,000. The 4-week moving average was 238,500, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 236,250 to 236,500. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 238,500. The previous week was revised up. Weekly claims were below the consensus forecast. The recent increase was partially hurricane related.

Waste Of The Day: States Are $811 Billion In Debt --America’s 50 state governments will need an extra $811 billion to pay off their current debt, according to the annual “State of the States” report from Truth in Accounting. State governments had $2.9 billion in debt and only $2.1 trillion in assets at the end of fiscal year 2023, Truth in Accounting, a nonpartisan organization that promotes fiscal transparency and accountability, found. The gap will need to be covered by taxpayers sometime in the future. Twenty-seven states have “taxpayer burdens,” meaning their budget is not balanced and they would need to collect at least $900 from every person in the state to eliminate their debt. Massachusetts, Illinois, New Jersey and Connecticut received a letter grade of “F” because they would need over $25,000 from every resident to pay their bills. Only 23 states had what Truth in Accounting calls a “taxpayer surplus,” meaning they could pay off all of their debt and still have money to return to taxpayers. Four states received a letter grade of “A” because they have a taxpayer surplus above $10,000: North Dakota, Alaska, Wyoming and Utah. Unfunded pension liabilities contributed $840 billion to the debt. States have promised to eventually pay pensions to teachers, firefighters, cops and more, but have only saved up 70% of the necessary cash. Other post-retirement benefits are underfunded by $493 billion. They mostly consist of lifetime healthcare plans, for which states have saved up only 14% of the money they’ve promised to current employees. Researchers wrote that “Unfortunately, some elected officials have used portions of the money owed to pension and OPEB funds to keep taxes low and pay for politically popular programs. This is similar to charging earned benefits to a credit card without having the money to pay off the debt.” Underreporting pension liabilities is just one “accounting trick” politicians use to falsely claim their budgets are balanced, according to Truth in Accounting. Some states also overstate their revenue, count borrowed money as income, and more.

Oklahoma parents and teachers sue to stop top education official's classroom Bible mandate (AP) — A group of Oklahoma parents of public school students, teachers and ministers filed a lawsuit Thursday seeking to stop the state’s top education official from forcing schools to incorporate the Bible into lesson plans for students in grades 5 through 12.The lawsuit filed with the Oklahoma Supreme Court also asks the court to stop Republican State Superintendent Ryan Walters from spending $3 million to purchase Bibles in support of his mandate.The suit alleges that the mandate violates the Oklahoma Constitution because it involves spending public money to support religion and favors one religion over another by requiring the use of a Protestant version of the Bible. It also alleges that Walters and the state Board of Education don’t have the authority to require the use of instructional materials.“As parents, my husband and I have sole responsibility to decide how and when our children learn about the Bible and religious teachings,” plaintiff Erika Wright, the founder of the Oklahoma Rural Schools Coalition and parent of two school-aged children, said in a statement. “It is not the role of any politician or public school official to intervene in these personal matters.”The plaintiffs are represented by several civil rights groups, including the Oklahoma chapter of the American Civil Liberties Union, the Freedom From Religion Foundation, Americans United for Separation of Church and State, and the Oklahoma Appleseed Center for Law & Justice.The suit also notes that the initial “request for proposal” released by the State Department of Education to purchase the Bibles appears to have been carefully tailored to match Bibles endorsed by former President Donald Trump that sell for $59.99 each. The RFP was later amended at the request of state purchasing officials. It is the second lawsuit filed in Oklahoma seeking to challenge Walters’ mandate. Another lawsuit filed in June by a Locust Grove man currently is pending in Mayes County.Walters said in a statement posted to his account on X that he will “never back down to the woke mob.”“The simple fact is that understanding how the Bible has impacted our nation, in its proper historical context, was the norm in America until the 1960s and its removal has coincided with a precipitous decline in American schools,” Walters wrote.Walters, a former public school teacher elected in 2022, ran on a platform of fighting “woke ideology,” banning books from school libraries and getting rid of “radical leftists” who he claims are indoctrinating children in classrooms.

Judge will hear arguments to block Louisiana's Ten Commandments display requirement in schools (AP) — A federal judge on Monday will hear arguments on whether he should temporarily block a new Louisiana law requiring that the Ten Commandments be displayed in every public school classroom by Jan. 1. The hearing on that and other issues in a pending lawsuit challenging the new law is expected to last all day. It’s unclear when U.S. District Judge John W. deGravelles will rule. Opponents say the law is an unconstitutional violation of separation of church and state and that the display will isolate students, especially those who are not Christian. Proponents argue the measure is not solely religious, but has historical significance to the foundation of U.S. law. Louisiana, a reliably Republican state that is ensconced in the Bible Belt, is the only state with such a requirement. In June, parents of Louisiana public school children, with various religious backgrounds, filed the lawsuit arguing that the legislation violates First Amendment language forbidding government establishment of religion and guaranteeing religious liberty.Gov. Jeff Landry, a conservative Republican who has backed the new law, for months has said that he looks forward to defending the mandate in court. When asked during an August press conference what he would say to parents who are upset about the Ten Commandments being displayed in their child’s classroom, he replied: “If those posters are in school and they (parents) find them so vulgar, just tell the child not to look at it.” Across the country, there have been conservative pushes to incorporate religion into classrooms, from Florida legislation allowing school districts to have volunteer chaplains to counsel students to Oklahoma’s top education official ordering public schools to incorporate the Bible into lessons. The new law in Louisiana has been touted by conservatives, including former President Donald Trump.Louisiana’s legislation, which applies to all public school K-12 and state-funded university classrooms, requires the Ten Commandments to be displayed on a poster or framed document at least 11 inches by 14 inches (28 by 36 centimeters) where the text is the central focus and “printed in a large, easily readable font.” Each poster must also be paired with the four-paragraph context statement.Additionally, tens of thousands of posters will likely be needed to satisfy the new law, considering Louisiana has more than 1,300 public schools Louisiana State University has nearly 1,000 classrooms at the Baton Rouge campus alone.The mandate does not require school systems to spend public money on the posters, with Republicans saying the displays will be paid for by donations or the posters themselves will be donated by groups or organizations. Questions still linger about how the requirement will be enforced if a teacher refuses to hang up the Ten Commandments and what happens if there are not enough donations to fund the mandate.

Louisiana’s Ten Commandments law faces court challenge over church-state separation (WVUE) - A legal battle over Louisiana’s controversial Ten Commandments law is set to unfold in court on Monday (Oct. 21) as state officials and opponents prepare to argue whether the law violates constitutional principles. The case centers on a law requiring the display of the Ten Commandments in every public school classroom across the state. Opponents, including national advocacy groups, claim the mandate breaches the separation of church and state. “Religious training belongs in the home, or the house of worship, not in the classroom,” said Alex Luchenitser, Associate Legal Director for Americans United for Separation of Church and State, one of several organizations suing to block the law. Luchenitser argues that the law directly conflicts with a 1980 Supreme Court ruling that struck down a similar mandate in Kentucky. “This Ten Commandments law violates religious freedom and the principle of separation of church and state. It contravenes longstanding Supreme Court precedent,” he said. However, supporters of the law, such as State Senator Adam Bass, argue that the Ten Commandments have a rightful place in American institutions, citing their presence in the U.S. Supreme Court. “Although this is a religious document, it is also placed in over 180 places, including the Supreme Court of the United States of America,” said Bass. He described the Commandments as “a historical document on which the laws of this country are founded.” Louisiana’s Attorney General Liz Murrill defended the law, stating it is constitutional. In a statement, Murrill said, “...Regardless of how people feel about the proposed law, it is constitutional...,” adding that she looks forward to presenting the state’s arguments in court.

GAO report shows how US schools spent pandemic relief funds, including on better ventilation - A new report from the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) concludes that, by the end of the 2021-22 school year, US school districts had spent about $60 billion in federal COVID-19 emergency aid through the Elementary and Secondary School Emergency Relief (ESSER) fund.Eighty percent of this money was used to address students' social-emotional needs and to keep schools running, while 20% went to addressing health concerns, including improving ventilation, enhanced cleaning and disinfection, and hiring school psychologists.To conduct the report, GAO investigators visited 17 school districts in six states, including rural, urban, and suburban schools.Of the schools visited and surveyed, nearly half (48.2%) said they used the federal relief funds to increase building ventilation. Another 51.7% used funds for physical distancing measures, and 67.1% said they used the funds to enhance cleaning and disinfection practices.Eighty percent of ESSER spending through school year 2021-22 went to addressing students' academic, social, and emotional needs and continuing school operations, the report said. For example, most of the districts that GAO visited added instructional time, and many bought new curricula. Officials from 12 of the 17 school districts surveyed said they hired social workers or school psychologists or purchased telehealth therapy services.In addition to mental health services, ESSER funds were used to cover new staff salaries, buy school supplies, and purchase technical or professional services."Officials from 14 of our 17 districts told us they intended to sustain at least one ESSER-funded activity after funding expired," the report said. "For example, officials from one district said that they had seen strong academic gains from students that participated in the district's enhanced summer programming and would maintain that effort."Several school districts reported using funds to hire more counselors, in part to address rising mental health issues among students. Schools in rural districts, however, reported trouble accessing such staff.Overall, school officials interviewed in the report said they did not know if ESSER funding would solve all the problems the pandemic presented to US students. Many officials voiced concern that they would not be able to offer a continuity of ESSER-funded programs in the coming school years, and student re-engagement is an ongoing struggle.

New York Student Sentenced To Year In Dubai Prison After Touching Airport Security Guard During Layover – - A 21-year-old American college student was sentenced to one year in a Dubai prison after being accused of “assaulting and insulting” airport staff during a layover, according to legal experts. Elizabeth Polanco De Los Santos was denied boarding on July 15 while traveling through Dubai International Airport. She was subjected to unpleasant, humiliating, and offensive searches when traveling from Istanbul to New York via the international hub.“Elizabeth’s experience transiting through Dubai International Airport has left our organization, Detained in Dubai, calling for increased travel warnings to U.S. citizens,” founder Radha Stirling said in a statement.“Elizabeth only intended to transit through Dubai for six hours, but she’s been there for months on end and has lost $50,000 in expenses and lawyers costs,” she continued. “She’s now been told she has a one-year prison sentence but that if all ‘goes well, she will only be detained until she can book a flight out of the UAE.Polanco De Los Santos was traveling to Turkey with a friend and had a 10-hour layover in the United Arab Emirates.“We thought it would be a more modern and futuristic city, but we were completely wrong,” she said in a press release shared by Detained in Dubai, an organization that assists foreigners in the UAE. Authorities told her to remove the doctor-mandated waist-training brace she wore while going through airport security. She hesitantly agreed and was led to a booth where women security officers took the trainer off in a “rough” manner, according to the press release.“I felt really violated,” the student said, adding she was “uncomfortable and afraid.”Polanco De Los Santos attempted to put the trainer back on, which usually requires two people and asked for help. The security officers blocked her exit, and the student nudged one of them while calling her friend for help.“I gently touched her arm to guide her out of the way, then desperately started crying to my friend for help,” the 21-year-old said.After the search came back clear, officials told her she would be detained for “touching the female customs officer.” She was kept for several hours as the officers filed a complaint, accusing Polanco De Los Santos of “assaulting and insulting” them.Since the incident, she has been unable to return home to New York. Polanco De Los Santos’ apartment lease has expired, and classes at Lehman College, where she is enrolled, have resumed, according to the Economic Times.An Aug. 24 court ruling required her to pay an AED10,000 fine ($4,500), but customs officials have appealed the decision. A new hearing is scheduled for Oct. 24, and, according to Detained in Dubai, Polanco De Los Santos may face jail time.The 21-year-old reached out to the organization after it helped Tierra Young Allen, an American also detained in Dubai after being accused of yelling in public and violating the obscenity law. Allen was released and brought back to the United States after four months.

Teaching must be made more attractive as a profession to tackle shortages, researchers say --Teaching must be made more attractive to a wider pool of graduates to tackle shortages in the profession, according to new international research comparing 18 countries.The worldwide comparison led by Durham University, UK, shows that the level of pay relative to other graduate professions, lack of resources and poor student behavior all play a part in recruitment and retention issues.The work appears in Research Papers in Education.Popular quick-fix strategies used across the world to attract and retain teachers, such as bursaries, scholarships and performance-related pay, do not work, according to the research. The study found that much more emphasis must be put into targeting those with the potential to be teachers but who may currently not be interested, as opposed to merely offering current teachers more of what they want.This should include raising the profile and prestige of the profession, increasing pay, and providing schools with better resources. These measures could also help with retention of teachers.The researchers analyzed data from 18 countries across the world on areas such as teachers' pay, working conditions, and teaching practices. These factors were considered in the context of wider educational policy, cultural factors and economic conditions. This included how countries plan for teacher supply, location of schools, legal status of teachers, how valued teachers are and salaries of graduates in other professions.Research has shown that 35 out of 43 education systems in Europe have a shortage of teachers, despite years of investment in recruiting and retaining teachers. International organizations, such as the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) have called for this issue to be addressed urgently.Lead author, Professor Stephen Gorard, from the School of Education at Durham University, said, "The shortage of teachers is a major problem for many countries despite years of investment in recruiting and retaining teachers. Our findings suggest that there are some key factors governments should focus on which include pay, resources and student behavior. "It's also important to look beyond those who are already planning to enter the profession or are currently working as teachers and make the job more attractive to graduates overall." In England, the situation is particularly serious for secondary schools because the pupil population has grown, and recruitment for initial teacher training has failed to meet its intake targets for several consecutive years. Teachers in England also have more teaching hours than in many other countries, which the study shows can impact on recruitment and retention.bThe study found that only 25% of teachers in England think that they are valued by society and only 10% feel they are valued by policymakers. The study shows that countries such as England, France and Japan, where teachers are less valued, are significantly more affected by teacher shortages.In countries like Singapore, South Korea and Finland, teachers are more appreciated by the government and the public, and these countries do not generally report major issues with teacher supply.Professor Gorard added, "Our analysis showed that it's more effective for recruitment and retention to increase teachers' pay rather than use funding for temporary incentives or bonuses which have been shown not to work. Funding could also be used to increase classroom resources, which would be a cheaper solution than providing temporary measures."One priority area to tackle is the abuse and intimidation of teachers by students, as policymakers could implement policy and changes in practice without the need for a major financial commitment."

Your A student is average — don’t blame the SAT and ACT --The Nov. 1 early application deadline for most colleges is almost here. More than at any time in the year — especially since COVID upended many college admissions precedents — I get a litany of questions from parents about the SAT and ACT and college admissions. The most common refrain from parents is that their child “is a good student but a bad test-taker.” This comment reveals a fundamental disconnect between what parents understand about grades from school and standardized test scores. So here’s what parents need to understand about seemingly divergent grades and test scores, to help them position their kids for academic success. Some students are, in fact, just bad test takers, which typically means they don’t perform well under pressure. But, in my experience tutoring thousands of students, this explanation only applies to a small percentage of students. In most cases, an alternate explanation is true: Despite having a sky-high GPA in honors classes, the student is actually just an average student. According to UCLA’s Higher Education Research Institute Freshman Survey, 86 percent of the surveyed students at BA-granting universities had A-averages in high school. Thus, A-averages are not rare at all. They are, in fact, average. Since we’re discussing average grades, you might wonder what average test scores are. The median SAT score is 1020. The median ACT score is 18. It can be shocking to parents that their A-average student is expected just to break 1000 on the SAT or score around an 18 on the ACT. But those are average scores, and, in today’s academic climate, A-students are, well, average. But most parents don’t know that their A-student is just average. This makes it extremely difficult to convince them that their A-student should expect average, not stellar, standardized test scores. Put simply, it’s much easier to blame poor test performance on being a “bad test taker” than admitting your kid is average, at least academically speaking.Last October, John Latting, dean of admissions at Emory, may have said it best: “We’re not as trusting, frankly, of GPA these days,” adding, “Grades are definitely inflated and not as connected to true class performance as they used to be.” But grade inflation is only part of the problem. In reality, there is another issue at play: Misinformation started by test prep companies has eroded trust in SAT and ACT scores.To make a quick buck, in the 1980s and 1990s the test prep giants of the past essentially advertised that the SAT and ACT only measure how you do on the SAT and ACT. They argued that the tests are gameable and largely meaningless, and that the smart approach is to do test prep to quickly boost one’s scores by learning the secret information that only they possess. So what’s the truth? It turns out that the SAT and ACT each cover over 200 topics and skills including vocabulary, rhetorical skills, grammar, mathematics, reading, logical thinking and data analysis. These tests are no longer just about measuring how you do on the tests themselves. They are, in fact, measuring important, meaningful skills that students need to do well in college. And because the SAT and ACT are standardized assessments covering a broad range of concepts and skills, parents should trust the results to help them understand their child’s academic preparedness. For most students, they should trust the results more than any GPA their child brings home from school. Not only do the SAT and ACT help predict success in college, but, at some schools, the SAT and ACT are better predictors than a student’s high school grades. Don’t take it from me. Take it from the most highly regarded institutions of higher education:

• “SAT and ACT tests are better predictors of Harvard grades than high school grades.”
• “Test scores are the single largest predictor of a student’s academic performance at Yale, and this is true over all four years, and it’s true even when we control for every other available variable that we can.”– Mark Dunn, assistant director of admissions at Yale, on the Yale Admissions Podcast
• “Standardized test scores are a much better predictor of academic success than high school grades.” – Christina Paxson, president of Brown University, quoted by the New York Times (2024)
• “SAT scores have significant predictive value for academic achievement over and above other measures such as high school GPA.” – Dartmouth Admissions Research
• Dartmouth puts numbers behind its statement: “High school GPA by itself explains 9 percent of the variation” in the first-year GPA of Dartmouth students. An SAT score by itself explains “about 22 percent of the variation.” Thus, at least for Dartmouth students, SAT/ACT scores are about 2.4 times more predictive of academic success than high school grades.

When you understand what the SAT and ACT are actually testing, this predictive capacity makes perfect sense. The SAT and ACT do not test students on random content or how well they perform an arbitrary task. They evaluate students as designed: measuring a student’s ability on the most fundamental and important knowledge and skills they need for higher education.

Colleges left helpless as students rule out schools due to state politics -- Colleges and universities find themselves increasingly trapped with the politics of the state where they reside.As state legislatures pass sweeping measures on everything from abortion to LGBTQ rights, more than a quarter of students, representing both sides of the aisle, are writing off schools simply based on where they are.And there’s not much the colleges can do.“I think we are in a place and a time where colleges are increasingly being seen as political places, and so it makes every sense that students would be aware of this as they’re making decisions about where to enroll, and that they would factor that into whether or not this is an institution they want to apply to,” said Katharine Meyer, a fellow in the Brown Center on Education Policy at The Brookings Institution. A poll from the Art & Science Group released this month showed 28 percent of students ruled out a school due to the politics of the state the college is in. Among those who excluded certain schools, 75 percent of liberals avoided ones they saw as too far to the right on abortion rights or LGBTQ issues, while 66 percent of conservatives crossed off colleges in states they labeled as too Democratic, too liberal on LGBTQ issues or too lenient on crime. Texas was the most frequently excluded state, with 31 percent of those who eliminated schools based on state saying it was a dealbreaker for them. The other states that were ruled out by 15 percent or more were Alabama, California, Florida and New York.“Schools can try to be very public about being welcoming of everybody with different opinions and stuff like that,” said Dick Startz, professor of economics at the University of California, Santa Barbara. But he added, “I’m not so sure, when you’re talking about high school students who are looking for where to go, whether it’s really very easy to get that message across in any way.”“And of course, it’s also true that there are actually realistic restrictions in a bunch of states. So, you know, there are states that have made a decision that universities, public ones, can’t have DEI [diversity, equity and inclusion] offices, or these restrictions on abortion, and there are various examples like that that the schools really don’t have any control over, and it may matter to people,” Startz added. DEI offices are banned at state universities in Florida and Texas, which also have two of the nation’s most restrictive abortion bans.California and New York, meanwhile, are among the bluest states in the nation, with legislators there approving a bevy of liberal priorities, including extensive protections for abortion rights and transgender Americans.A poll from last year found similar results, with 1 in 4 college applicants eliminating schools based on the politics of their state.“I mean, it’s a challenge because there are certain dimensions of this where the institution has no control, and they are going to be asked to implement or enforce state policy. And in my experience, the vast majority of institutions are going to do that. They’re going to comply with that, and are not necessarily going to, you know, attempt to directly kind of challenge or to circumvent state policy. And so that means that there — there are certain laws that are going to be passed that are going to have ramifications for college students as well,” said Kevin McClure, associate professor of higher education at the University of North Carolina Wilmington. “I think, you know, some institutions are likely trying to emphasize that despite what may be happening in the state, there are different realities in their particular area, and that there is a greater diversity of students and viewpoints that you can find there that creates somewhat of an island, as it were, within the greater context, political context of the state,” McClure added. And the schools don’t have much recourse besides tailoring their pitch to convince potential students they are not defined by their state. “What we have to do is to double down on the role of higher education, how we are educating the next generation of leaders and what makes each institution unique, so that students can find the place that’s the right fit,” said Heidi Tseu, assistant vice president of national engagement for the American Council on Education.

Biden makes ‘long, long, long overdue’ apology for Indian boarding schools - President Joe Biden on Friday offered an emphatic apology to Native Americans for the federal government’s effort to eradicate tribal culture through a boarding school system that forcibly removed children from their homes, calling the 150-year-long program “one of the most horrific chapters in American history.”Biden made the historic statement before a crowd at a school in the Gila River Indian Community near Phoenix.“The federal government has never, never formally apologized for what happened,” Biden said. He then raised his voice to shout, “Until today: I formally apologize as president of the United States of America for what we did. I formally apologize.”During the Federal Indian Boarding School era between 1819 and 1969, the federal government routinely separated Native American children from their families and sought to extinguish their culture, language and identity in government-run or religious boarding schools.A total of 408 schools operated across 37 states or then-territories, including 21 schools in Alaska and seven in Hawaii.The Interior Department’s Bureau of Indian Affairs issued a report earlier this year detailing the deaths of nearly 1,000 children at the schools. That report included a series of eight recommendations to remedy the long-term effects of the separation policies, including the apology Biden issued Friday.“It’s long, long, long overdue. Quite frankly, there’s no excuse that this apology took 50 years to make,” Biden said. “The Federal Indian Boarding School policy and the pain it has caused will always be a significant mark of shame, a blot on American history. For too long, this all happened with virtually no public attention, not written about in our history books, not taught in our schools.”Interior Secretary Deb Haaland, the first Native American to lead the agency, on Friday announced the development of a 10-year national plan to preserve Native languages led by tribal leaders and Native language teachers.“The painful loss of our Indigenous languages has been a consistent topic as we have met with survivors across our nation from Hawaii to Michigan to right here in Arizona,” said Haaland, who became emotional during remarks in which she described her own grandparents’ experiences in boarding schools and their aftermath.“These federal Indian boarding schools have impacted every Indigenous person I know: Some are survivors, some are descendants, but we all carry the trauma that these policies and these places inflicted,” Haaland said.

Mexico Escalates Its War on Obesity by Declaring National Ban on Junk Food Sales in Schools -- Yesterday (Oct. 21), while Donald Trump was causing a stir by donning a McDonald’s uniform for the cameras and frying some fries, Mexico’s new Secretary of Public Education, Mario Delgado, announced the launch of a new nationwide program that is unlikely to be replicated north of the border any time soon. The goal of the program, titled “Vida Saludable” (Healthy Life), is to improve the nutrition and overall health of Mexican school children amid an epidemic of child obesity and diabetes. The program, enacted by the now-former AMLO administration on September 29, has four main pillars: prevent the sale of ultra-processed food and sugary drinks in school settings; promote the consumption of natural drinking water through the provision of water fountains; train educators in healthy nutrition; and promote sports and physical activity. The Claudia Sheinbaum government, still in its maiden month in office, has said it will also train the heads of school cooperatives to sell fruits, vegetables and seasonal foods.“Vida Saludable” will become mandatory for all state schools at all levels of the national education system on March 29. Schools will have just six months to end all sales of foods and drinks that have at least one health warning label from their snack stands, or their administrators could face steep fines.Of course, many children bring food from home, but the government says it has no intention of sanctioning parents who put junk food in their children’s lunchboxes. Instead, it will focus on explaining the harmful effects of these foods and the importance of eating a balanced diet. Implementing “Vida Saludable” is likely to be difficult, however. At most of Mexico’s 255,000 public schools, free drinking water is not available to students. Since 2020, only 4% of them have managed to install drinking fountains. There are also doubts about how the government will enforce the ban on the pavements outside schools, where vendors set up stalls of goods to sell to kids at breaktime. This being Mexico, one can expect a lively black market in comida chattara to spring up in many schools. Enterprising students will no doubt get rich.Nonetheless, drastic steps are necessary to combat Mexico’s soaring levels of child obesity and diabetes. An estimated 5.7 Mexican million children between the ages of 5 and 11 and 10.4 million adolescents between the ages of 12 and 19 are overweight or obese. In addition, an estimated 7 out of 10 schoolchildren and 5 out of 10 adolescents are physically inactive, which further aggravates the country’s public health crisis. In Mexico, obesity reached epidemic proportions after it joined NAFTA with the United States and Canada in the early 1990s, making processed food more easily available. As the New York Times reported in a 2017 investigation, the commercial opening of North America turbocharged the growth of convenience stores and US-owned fast food restaurants on Mexican soil. In addition, trade liberalisation allowed “cheap corn, meat, high-fructose corn syrup, and processed foods” from the United States to flood into Mexico. Diets quickly changed as many people, particularly those on lower incomes, replaced largely healthy traditional staples (corn tortilla, frijoles, Jamaica Water…) with highly processed alternatives (hotdogs, nuggets, sodas…). Granted, prior to NAFTA Mexico was already home to a burgeoning junk food industry, but what came after was on a whole different scale. Mexico is now the leading consumer of soft drinks in the world with an average consumption of 163 litres per person per year — 40% more than the US in second place, with 118 litres, according to a 2022 study from the University of Yale. Incredibly, there is one state in the country that consumes Coca Cola in per-capita volumes five times higher than the national average and 32 times higher than the global average: Chiapas, Mexico’s poorest state. “It is the epicentre of the epidemic of soft drink consumption,” Dr. Marcos Arana, a researcher at the Salvador Zubirán National Institute of Medical Sciences and Nutrition, told BBC Mundo: “Residents told me that before the road to Tenejapa arrived, there was no diabetes or cardiovascular problems there. That all began when the road arrived in town and the soft drinks, the chips…”, says Jaime Page Pliego, anthropologist and co-author of the study. Local organizations such as the Centre for Training in Ecology and Health for Peasants (CCESC), which Arana directs, point to the “aggressive” commercial practices of soft drink companies and the easy accessibility of their products in the area as the main drivers of this excessive consumption. “Coca-Cola is the most available product in Los Altos, you have to walk the farther to buy tortillas or anything else. The number of points of sale is excessive, without any control, and with prices reduced by up to 30%,” says Arana. As sugar consumption in Mexico has soared, waistlines have exploded. In the past 20 years the number of obese and overweight people has tripled, with a staggering 75% of the population and 35% of the child population now overweight. In addition to obesity, the change in diet has contributed to diabetes becoming the second leading cause of death, after heart disease and ahead of cancer. In 2016, a state of epidemiological emergency was declared in the country due to the high rates of obesity and diabetes.

Young children more likely to be hospitalized for COVID-19 than older kids, study shows - Today a Kaiser Permanente Northern California study of children during the COVID-19 pandemic finds children too young to be vaccinated had the highest hospitalization rate, while adolescents had the highest rate of intensive care unit (ICU) admission. The findings are published in Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses.The study relied on health records from 1,107,799 children ages 0 to 18 who were members of Kaiser Permanente Northern California (KPNC). The pediatric patients were followed from March 1, 2020, through either chart-confirmed COVID-related hospitalization, disenrollment from KPNC, age 18 years, receipt of COVID-19 vaccine, or death. In total, 423 children were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the study period, and infants 6 months and under—not eligible for vaccination—had the highest incidence of hospitalization. One hundred and three hospitalized children (24.3%) were less than 6 months of age, 40 (9.5%) were 6 to 11 months, 139 (32.9%) were 1 to 5 years old, 80 (18.9%) were 5 to 12 years, and 61 (14.4%) were 12 to 18 years of age.Hospitalizations increased with each new COVID variant for unvaccinated children, peaking for children 6 months and under during Omicron, with a monthly incidence rate of 22.4 per 100,000 person-months.Overall, 20.3% of hospitalized children were admitted to an ICU, but ICU admission disproportionately affected teens. Thirty-six percent of ICU admissions were among children 12 to 18 years. The vast majority of ICU patients (91.8%) had no comorbidities, the authors said.Of all children requiring ICU care, 16% were diagnosed as having multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C), 4% required mechanical ventilation, 2% were diagnosed as having myocarditis, and 0.9% died."Among the 5–11-year-olds, 36% were diagnosed with MIS-C," the authors wrote. "These results suggest that while older children might be less likely to be hospitalized compared to younger children, when they do get hospitalized, they require a higher level of care." The authors found Black and Hispanic children had a higher risk of hospitalization. Compared to White children, Black children had a risk ratio (RR) of 2.05 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.33 to 3.16), and Hispanic children had a risk ratio of 1.82.Sleep apnea, a compromised immune system, diabetes, cerebral palsy, and epilepsy were all linked to hospitalization. Overall, children with any comorbidities were at higher risk of hospitalization compared with those without a comorbidity (RR, 3.81; 95% CI, 2.94 to 4.95). Although the study did not compare hospitalization rates among vaccinated and unvaccinated children, the authors said the study shows the importance of vaccination for kids."One of the most effective ways to prevent severe COVID-19 in the general population has been vaccination, which have been available for children as young as 6 months since June 2022 and for older children since May 2021," the authors said. "However, vaccine uptake in the pediatric population has been suboptimal."

Maternal COVID infections may affect newborn heart development -- Maternal COVID-19 infection during pregnancy may adversely affect the development of the newborn's heart, resulting in congenital heart defects (CHD), researchers suggested yesterday in Scientific Reports.The study was based on outcomes seen among women who gave birth at the Shanxi Province Integrated Traditional and Western Medicine Hospital in China in 2023. The study included 119 pregnant women with COVID-19 and 412 pregnant women with no recorded COVID infections.The two cohorts did not have a significant difference in adverse obstetric history, which was observed in 1.68% of the COVID-19 cases and 3.16% of the controls. Similarly, the incidence of diabetes, thyroid disease, and preeclampsia were not significantly different.The researchers did, however, find a statistically significant difference in the prevalence of cardiac ultrasound abnormalities: 10.08% of the newborns in the COVID-19 group had abnormalities, compared with 4.13% in the control group.Among 12 infants with cardiac ultrasound abnormalities in the COVID group, 11 cases involved mothers who were infected before 8 weeks of pregnancy, while 1 case involved infection at 23 weeks of pregnancy. "The data demonstrate an increasing trend in the incidence of CHD over the 4 years, with a notable rise during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2023. The incidence rate of CHD in 2023, during the COVID-19 pandemic, was significantly higher at 5.46% compared to previous years," they wrote. The incidence in 2020 was 1.12%."The significant increase in congenital abnormalities during the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly the early gestational infections associated with specific types of cardiac abnormalities, emphasizes the need for ongoing monitoring and support for children born during the pandemic," the authors concluded.Key SARS-CoV-2 enzyme behind virus's infectiousness, researchers say -SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, is more infectious than severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) viruses because it contains an enzyme that can efficiently circumvent a host cell's innate defense mechanism, Kobe University–led researchers in Japansuggest in the Journal of Virology.The innate immune system attaches the molecular tag ISG15 to SARS-CoV-2's nucleocapsid protein, which contains the virus's genetic material, inhibiting viral replication. The team's laboratory experiments suggest that the virus's papain-like protease (PLpro) can remove the tag, recovering its ability to assemble new viruses and escape the innate immune response. While the SARS and MERS viruses belong to the same virus family and also have an enzyme that can remove the ISG15 tag, their versions are less efficient and have a different primary target than that of SARS-CoV-2.In a Kobe University news release today, senior author Ikuo Shoji, MD, PhD, said this finding may help guide the development of more effective and selective COVID-19 inhibitors that target SARS-CoV-2's nucleocapsid protein. "We may be able to develop new antiviral drugs if we can inhibit the function of the viral enzyme that removes the ISG15 tag," he said. "Future therapeutic strategies may also include antiviral agents that directly target the nucleocapsid protein, or a combination of these two approaches."

Studies show long-COVID symptoms distinct from other respiratory infections, common in Marines --Two new studies offer fresh insights into long COVID, with the first noting a greater neurological, cognitive, and fatigue impact compared with long-term symptoms after similar respiratory diseases, and the second demonstrating that a fourth of young Marines who contracted COVID-19 went on to develop long COVID. In the first study, published today in JAMA Network Open, researchers used data from the UK Biobank to compared postacute infection syndromes (PAIS) among patients with COVID-19 to other lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs). They showed that long-COVID patients have an increased risk of seven specific symptoms. A total of 191,710 eligible participants identified since March 1, 2020, were included in the study. Of those, 1,153 were hospitalized with COVID-19, 1,304 were hospitalized with other LRTIs, and 189,253 uninfected patients were used as a reference group. Patients hospitalized with COVID-19 were much more likely to report PAIS symptoms including loss of taste (odds ratio [OR], 2.27; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.87 to 2.75) and severe fatigue (OR, 2.18; 95% CI, 1.70 to 2.81) compared to the reference group. Overall, COVID patents were more likely to report 23 of 45 symptoms compared to the controls. Compared to patients hospitalized for other LRTIs, COVID patients were more at risk for seven particular symptoms, including loss of smell (OR, 1.80; 95% CI, 1.34 to 2.42), loss of taste (OR, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.13 to 2.03), rapid heart rate upon standing (OR, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.12 to 2.29), problems with thinking (OR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.14 to 1.62), bone pain (OR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.06 to 1.67), mild fatigue (OR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.40), and severe fatigue (OR, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.02 to 2.17).Patients with LRTIs were more likely to report a lingering persistent cough than were COVID patients."Compared with other LRTIs, COVID-19 appeared to impose an extra burden of neurological, cognitive, and fatigue symptoms,” the authors concluded. The second study, published in The Lancet Regional Health Americas, describes how 25% of previously healthy US Marines showed signs of long COVID following even mild or asymptomatic COVID-19. In the study, 899 Marines (91.7% male) who tested positive for COVID-19 by polymerase chain reaction testing were followed up for almost a year to determine risk factors for developing long COVID, which the authors defined as persistent symptoms at least 4 weeks after symptom onset or diagnosis. The authors found a 24.7% prevalence of long COVID. The Marines were young (median age, 18) and healthy, having passed a number of Marine physical fitness tests prior to study enrollment. The participants were asked to complete a survey about COVID infection and symptoms. Overall, 197 Marines (24.7%) developed persistent symptoms after COVID infection.The most prevalent symptoms reported by Marines were loss of taste and/or smell (41.6%), shortness of breath (37.6%), and cough (22.8%). When compared with a pre-COVID cohort of Marines, the authors found the Marines reporting persistent COVID symptoms had slower running times on fitness tests.The authors said their findings are important in considering the implications of long COVID on a young and previously healthy workforce. Long COVID could "decrease work productivity and increase healthcare costs," they wrote.A total of 307 participants (34.1%) had an asymptomatic infection. Among the 195 who described the severity of their infection, 77.4% reported a predominately mild illness, 20.0% reported moderate disease, and 2.6% reported severe illness. "The risk of long-term sequelae secondary to acute SARS-CoV-2 infection varies across studies; however, even in young healthy populations with very mild acute illness a proportion of infected individuals develop long-lasting symptoms," the authors wrote.

COVID genomic surveillance details rise, evolution of JN.1 in US this year - New genomic surveillance data published today in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report show that JN.1 and its descendants have been the most common SARS-CoV-2 variants in 2024, and they're still evolving. The genomic surveillance was conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's national SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance program, which previously detected both the Delta and Omicron variants.The new report covers detections from May 2023 through September 2024, from which researchers analyzed 208,357 SARS-CoV-2 sequences from 56 US jurisdictions.In the summer of 2023, the authors write, multiple Omicron XBB descendants, including EG.5-like lineages, FL.1.5.1-like lineages, and HV.1 lineages reached more than 10% prevalence in the United States.By the winter of 2023, however, JN.1 increasingly took hold. "The JN.1 variant emerged in the United States and rapidly attained predominance nationwide, representing a substantial genetic shift," the authors write. "Surges in COVID-19 cases occurred in winter 2024 during the shift to JN.1 predominance.”More surges were seen in the summer of 2024, the authors write, when cocirculation of JN.1 descendant lineages with identical substitutions, including the S31 deletion, R346T, and F456L emerged. These substitutions cause immune escape and increased transmissibility. “Continued monitoring to determine whether this pattern of divergent variant emergence followed by subsequent stepwise evolutionary changes continues will be important for updating COVID-19 vaccines and anticipating surges in COVID-19 activity," the authors conclude.US COVID markers continue to decline -After a long summer wave that peaked in August, COVID-19 activity continues to decline in most areas, with more downward trends seen in wastewater detections, test positivity, emergency department visits, and hospitalizations, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said in its latest respiratory virus updates today. Deaths remain at low levels. According to CDC provisional data, 341 deaths were reported last week. Wastewater detections remain at low levels nationally, but detections tracking a bit higher in the West and Midwest compared to other regions, according to CDC data. Similarly, WastewaterSCAN, a national wastewater monitoring system based at Stanford University in partnership with Emory University, said its monitoring has the nation at the medium level, with a downward trend over the past 3 weeks. It said the South and West are now in the low category. In updated variant proportion estimates today, the CDC said KP.3.1.1 is still dominant, making up 57% of viruses, similar to last week. However, levels of XEC—a recombinant of two JN.1 viruses—continue to rise steadily and are estimated to make up 17% of viruses, up from 10% 2 weeks ago. XEC has mutations that are thought to increase infectivity and evade immune response. The CDC said that, because the variant stems from JN.1 viruses, vaccines will likely provide protection because they include a JN.1 strain. In its weekly respiratory virus overview, the CDC said it expects to see a winter COVID peak higher than the summer peak, similar to COVID trends over the past 4 years. Flu activity, meanwhile, is minimal, the CDC said. And respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) activity remains low nationally, but there are signs of increased activity in the southeast, especially in young children.

Study: XEC characteristics position COVID variant to become dominant - The XEC variant will likely become the world’s predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the near future, researchers from the Sato Lab, based at the University of Tokyo, reported recently in a preprint study. XEC—first identified in Germany in early August—is a recombinant of two JN.1 descendant lineages, KS.1.1 and KP.3.3. In the United States, the KP.3.1.1 variant is still dominant and rising, making up an estimated 57.2% of SARS-CoV-2 viruses, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said in its latest projections. However, it also noted a steady rise in XEC viruses, which make up about 10.7% of sequenced samples. In comments on the study on X, Kei Sato, PhD, who leads the lab, said researchers compared the XEC variant with KP.3.1.1, finding that XEC has two spike mutations, compared to KP.3. The group’s phylogenetic epidemic dynamics modeling, based on surveillance from five countries, suggests that the reproduction number of XEC is greater than that of KP.3.1.1, which is currently the world’s dominant virus. The reproduction number is the average number of additional cases generated by each case in a susceptible population. When the researchers examined virological properties with pseudovirus experiments, they found that the increase in infectivity was due to one of the two spike mutations (S:F59S) in XEC. Experiments with XBB.1.5 and JN.1 sera to assess breakthrough infection found that neutralization titers for XEC and KP.3.1.1 were similar. However, compared to KP3.3 sera, neutralization against XEC was significantly lower than that of KP.3.1.1, and both mutations significantly increased resistance to KP.3.3 sera, suggestive of higher immune evasion. Sato wrote that the higher reproduction number of XEC when compared to KP3.1.1 is partly attributed to the more robust resistance to KP.3.3.

CDC vaccine advisers recommend second COVID vaccine dose for seniors, immune-compromised --The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) vaccine advisory group today recommended a second 2024-25 COVID-19 vaccine dose, spaced 6 months apart, for people ages 65 and older and for people in younger age-groups who have moderate or severe immunocompromising conditions. The group also recommended an extra dose, three or more, in people with immunocompromising conditions, based on shared decision-making between patient and doctor. The recommendation replaces a vaguer "additional doses" wording that the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) used in its advice over the summer for at-risk groups for the 2024-25 vaccines. The group made the change to simplify and standardize language used for its routine immunization schedules. The three-part vote passed unanimously. The ACIP work group that proposed the recommendation grappled with several factors, including a lack of seasonality of SARS-CoV-2 circulation, the epidemiology of the disease, waning vaccine effectiveness, and variant changes. Vaccine timing has become complex, especially given tough-to-predict waves involving new COVID variants that sometimes spike in warm-weather months, after protection from vaccination in the fall months has waned, but before updated vaccines arrive on the market. For example, over the past spring and summer, COVID activity circulated at a high level over many months. Hospitalization rates from COVID remain higher in seniors, especially those ages 75 and older. According to the CDC's latest data for the last respiratory disease season, 40% of adults ages 65 and older received one dose of the vaccine and 8.9% received a second dose, with second-dose levels higher in people in urban areas and in certain geographic regions. CDC experts told the group that a healthcare provider recommendation helped sway patients to receive a second dose. Meanwhile, second-dose coverage in immunocompromised people ages 18 and older was lower, at 5.4%. Also, along with the general two-dose recommendation for immunocompromised people ages 6 months to 64 years, in a move to create more flexibility with COVID vaccination, ACIP recommended additional doses—three or more—of the 2024-25 vaccine in people ages 6 months and older who are moderately to severely immunocompromised with shared clinical decision-making. CDC experts recommended a minimal 2-month vaccination interval to allow for flexibility based on the patient's risks and circumstances. The CDC director considers ACIP recommendations before making a formal recommendation.

Can COVID vaccines induce mucosal immunity? Two studies offer conflicting findings Two studies published today in Science Translational Medicinediffer on whether COVID-19 vaccine boosters can trigger an immune response in mucous cells in the nose and mouth—a longtime goal of vaccine researchers.Despite the disparate findings, editorial writers say mucosal immunization could go further than current intramuscular COVID-19 vaccines by preventing infection altogether, disrupting viral transmission and the ability of the virus to evolve. For the first study, researchers in Belgium and the Netherlands assessed mucosal SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibody responses in the sera and nasal secretions of 183 people after receipt of two doses of the AstraZeneca-Oxford COVID-19 adenovirus vector-based vaccine (99 participants) or the Pfizer/BioNTech mRNA vaccine (84) and after receipt of at least one dose of the Pfizer or Moderna booster vaccine. The first vaccine doses were administered in February or March 2021 and the boosters from September 2021 to January 2022.“To prevent infection by respiratory viruses and consequently limit virus circulation, vaccines need to promote mucosal immunity,” the researchers wrote, noting current vaccines’ ability to protect against severe disease but not infection. “Failure to achieve this allows for continued virus circulation with the risk for the emergence of new variants.”The team found that mRNA boosters triggered production of neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) against SARS-CoV-2 in nasal secretions to a greater extent than primary mRNA vaccination at 6 months, with waning thereafter. Nasal and serum levels of the antibodies immunoglobulin G and A (IgG and A) correlated, suggesting that there might be a serum threshold beyond which circulating antibodies migrate to the respiratory mucosa. “Whereas all study participants displayed virus neutralizing responses in the nasal cavity upon a third mRNA vaccination, approximately half of them experienced a breakthrough infection during the following 6 months,” the researchers wrote. “The time of booster vaccination in our cohort coincided with the emergence of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2, which readily evades antibody-mediated neutralization.”Previous COVID-19 infection was tied to higher nasal antibody levels after vaccination, and concentrations didn’t differ between the Pfizer or Moderna boosters. “Collectively, these results demonstrate that, especially upon repeated vaccination, the currently used COVID-19 mRNA vaccines can elicit mucosal NAbs and that vaccination might also stimulate mucosal immunity induced by previous SARS-CoV-2 infection,” the study authors wrote. “Moreover, migration of circulating antibodies to the respiratory mucosa might be a main mechanism.”The authors of the second study, from Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, reached a different conclusion: the 2023 COVID-19 XBB.1.5 mRNA booster robustly increased peripheral NAb and IgG levels but had little effect on mucosal NAb or IgA responses, although previous XBB infection substantially boosted mucosal NAb responses.The researchers performed NAb assays on blood and nasal swabs from 58 participants who did (31 participants) or didn’t receive (27) the XBB.1.5 mRNA booster at baseline and 3 weeks after receipt of the booster in fall 2023. Participants, about 80% of whom had a previous COVID-19 infection, received a median of four COVID-19 vaccine doses.“In this study, we show that the XBB.1.5 mRNA boosters induced robust serum binding and NAb responses against current circulating variants, including JN.1, consistent with other recent immunogenicity and effectiveness studies,” the authors wrote. “However, the XBB.1.5 mRNA boosters did not induce robust mucosal NAb or IgA responses and only induced modest mucosal IgG responses.”“These findings provide an immunological rationale for why mRNA vaccines provide robust protection against severe disease but minimal protection against infection,” they added. “Next-generation vaccines for COVID-19 and other respiratory pathogens should focus on improving induction of mucosal immunity.”

Carbapenem resistance remains elevated in Brazil post-COVID, study shows -Carbapenem resistance rates in critically ill hospital patients in Brazil rose during the COVID-19 pandemic and have remained higher than pre-pandemic rates, researchers reported last week in the American Journal of Infection Control.For the study, researchers retrospectively analyzed data on all critically ill, mechanically ventilated adults admitted to eight Brazilian hospitals from January 1, 2018, to April 30, 2023, stratifying the patients into three periods: pre-surge (January 1, 2018, to March 1, 2020), surge (March 1, 2020, to October 1, 2021), and post-surge (after October 1, 2021). The main outcome was the number of carbapenem-resistant gram-negative bacterial isolates across the three periods. Brazil had one of the highest COVID-19 burdens in the world, and notable increases in carbapenem use in Brazilian hospitals during the early months of the pandemic have previously been reported.Concerns about resistance rates remaining ‘permanently high’Of the 9,780 patients included in the study, 3,718 were in the pre-surge, 3,185 in the surge, and 2,247 in the post-surge period. The patients in the pre- and post-surge periods had similar characteristics and outcomes, while the patients in the surge period were younger (median age, 70 vs 74 pre-surge vs 75 post-surge), mainly male (57% vs 48% vs 51%), and had higher rates of mechanical ventilation (7 vs 5 days pre- and post-surge). The isolation of carbapenem-resistant gram-negative bacteria increased during the surge (rate ratio [RR], 1.8; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.5 to 2.2 compared to pre-surge), decreased in post-surge (RR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.6 to 0.9), and remained higher than pre-surge (RR, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.0 to 1.6). Resistance rates for Pseudomonas aeruginosa fell from 32% to 23% pre- to post-surge, whereas Klebsiella pneumoniae doubled during the surge, 26% to 52%, and remained higher (42%) than pre-surge. “In a post-COVID-19 world, with the emergence of new infectious diseases and ongoing challenges posed by existing pathogens, the importance of preserving the effectiveness of antimicrobials cannot be overstated,” the study authors wrote. “It is necessary to coordinate efforts to avoid antimicrobial resistance rates remaining permanently high and to prevent future similar antimicrobial stewardship breakdowns.”

City microbes surviving on disinfectants, research reveals -- New research shows microbes in our cities are evolving to resist the very cleaners we use to eliminate them. It also identifies novel strains living in Hong Kong that were previously only found in Antarctic desert soil. After the recent pandemic, the use of disinfectants has increased, but are efforts to create sterile urban environments backfiring? A study published in the journal Microbiome has identified novel strains of microbes that have adapted to use the limited resources available in cities and shown that our everyday behavior is changing the makeup of microorganisms in indoor environments. "Built environments offer distinct conditions that set them apart from natural and engineered habitats," says Dr. Xinzhao Tong, an assistant professor at Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University (XJTLU), China, and lead author of the study. "Areas with many buildings are low in the traditional nutrients and essential resources microbes need for survival, so these built environments have a unique microbiome. "Our use of cleaning and other manufactured products creates a unique setting that puts selective pressures on microbes, which they must adapt to or be eliminated, but the mechanisms by which microbes adapt and survive in built environments are poorly understood," Dr. Tong explains. The researchers collected 738 samples from a variety of built environments, including subways, residences, public facilities, piers and human skin in Hong Kong. They then used shotgun metagenomic sequencing to analyze the microbes' genomic content and understand how they have adapted to the challenging urban conditions. The team identified 363 microbial strains that have not been previously identified that live on the skin and the surrounding environment. Some of these strains' genomes contained genes for metabolizing manufactured products found in cities and using them as carbon and energy sources. This includes the discovery of a strain of Candidatus phylum Eremiobacterota, previously only reported in Antarctic desert soil. Specialized metabolic capacities of microbes in oligotrophic built environments. Tong et al. “Diverse and specialized metabolic capabilities of microbes in oligotrophic built environments.” Microbiome (2024). Credit: AJE Video Bytes, in partnership with Springer Nature Group (0) Dr. Tong says, "The genome of this novel strain of Eremiobacterota enables it to metabolize ammonium ions found in cleaning products. The strain also has genes for alcohol and aldehyde dehydrogenases to break down residual alcohol found in common disinfectants. "Microbes possessing enhanced capabilities to utilize limited resources and tolerate manufactured products, such as disinfectants and metals, out-compete non-resistant strains, enhancing their survival and even evolution within built environments. They could, therefore, pose health risks if they are pathogenic." The team identified 11 unique, previously uncharacterized strains of Micrococcus luteus, typically non-pathogenic but capable of causing opportunistic infections in immunocompromised individuals. "The issue of their adaptation to our behavior becomes particularly critical in clinical settings where hospitals serve as hotspots for diverse pathogens that cause hospital-acquired infections (HAIs). HAIs pose a significant threat, particularly in intensive care units where mortality rates can reach up to 30%," says Dr. Tong.

Study shows wastewater detections accurate for norovirus -Norovirus can be accurately tracked inwastewater samples, which can help identify outbreaks and trends, according to a new study based on California wastewater surveillance published inEmerging Infectious Diseases.Norovirus is one of the leading causes of gastroenteritis in the United States, but surveillance is challenging because many cases are unreported, the authors said. As wastewater surveillance has proved useful and accurate for viral detections, including COVID-19, the researchers assessed its usefulness for norovirus.The authors collected wastewater data from December 17, 2022, through December 17, 2023, from 76 California wastewater utilities, as part of the WastewaterSCAN program.The authors looked for norovirus viral RNA from wastewater samples and compared findings with Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National Respiratory and Enteric Virus Surveillance System (NREVSS) norovirus test positivity at the national and western US regional level.That data was then cross-referenced with California Norovirus Laboratory Network (NLN)–confirmed GII norovirus outbreaks, which are published monthly."We observed positive, statistically significant (p<0.001), moderate-to-strong correlations between California regional and statewide wastewater aggregates and US national and western regional NREVSS test positivity," the authors said.The authors said they observed distinct regional patterns to norovirus outbreaks in the state, with activity peaking February 22, 2023, in Southern California, and March 24, 2023, in the San Joaquin Valley.

Genomic surveillance tracks RSV evolution, identifies mutations in Minnesota - A new study shows that the addition of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) to Minnesota’s viral genomic surveillance program demonstrates that prospective monitoring of the respiratory pathogen can identify the emergence of important mutations and clades.Minnesota Department of Health (MDH) investigators, who published the findings yesterday in Emerging Infectious Diseases, conducted whole-genome sequencing of 575 respiratory specimens collected from hospitalized and nonhospitalized RSV patients at 11 state healthcare facilities from July 2023 to February 2024. The median patient age was 2 years, 91.8% were adults, 53.4% were female, and 5% were 65 years or older.“Investigators have applied whole-genome sequencing (WGS) for retrospective RSV surveillance and outbreak investigation in the United States, but WGS has not yet been documented as a tool for prospective surveillance,” they wrote. Sequencing classified 287 (49.9%) genomes as subgroup A and 288 (50.1%) as subgroup B. Most RSV-A genomes (98.9%) were distributed in four whole-genome lineages (A.D.1, 10.8%; A.D.3, 18.5%; A.D.5, 38.0%; and A.D.5.2, (31.7%), while 95.1% of RSV-B genomes belonged to the B.D.E.1 lineage.Comparisons of diagrams representing evolutionary relationships showed greater diversity among all RSV-A genomes than among RSV-B genomes. Time-scaled phylogenetic analyses specific to the genomes sequenced estimated that the divergence of lineages occurred 2 to 8 years before their earliest specimen collections.The team identified single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs; a type of mutation), with pairwise comparisons showing that 32.3% of genomes were identical to at least one other genome, while 53% had one SNP. Twenty-three clusters of three or more genomes were identical, including 19.5% of all genomes. One clade of eight RSV-B genomes had a mutation tied to resistance to the RSV monoclonal antibody nirsevimab (Beyfortus). The most recent common ancestor of this clade likely circulated in fall 2023.To evaluate their ability to link RSV genomes to known severe infections, the researchers cross-referenced the names and birthdates of RSV patients with sequenced specimens with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Respiratory Syncytial Virus Hospitalization Surveillance Network (RSV-NET). Of 531 genomes collected from October 2023 to January 2024, the peak months of specimen collection, 22% were found in RSV-NET cases, representing 6.3% of all hospitalizations for RSV during that period. Nine (39.1%) of the 23 clusters included one or more RSV-NET cases, and 13.4% of clustered cases were in RSV-NET. Two RSV-NET case-patients with sequenced RSV from A.D.5.2 infections had received nirsevimab. Of the eight RSV-B patients whose genomes carried the nirsevimab-resistance gene, one was found in RSV-NET.The team cautioned that their “skewed and localized convenience sampling limited the analytical potential of our findings. The limited geographic and temporal scope of our study also potentially introduced variability in our time-scaled analyses and location-specific discrepancies between RSV evolution in Minnesota and in other regions.”

Broad-spectrum antibiotics for pneumonia linked to increased risk of adverse events - A study of US adults who had community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) but were otherwise healthy found that broad-spectrum antibiotics were associated with increased risks of adverse drug events (ADEs), researchers reported yesterday in Clinical Infectious Diseases.Using national data from a large insurance database, researchers from Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis performed an active comparator new-user study to estimate the comparative risk of several individual ADEs between different outpatient antibiotic regimens for CAP among otherwise healthy, non-elderly adults. As the study authors note, uncertainty about the risks and benefits of different antibiotic regimens has resulted in a wide variation in antibiotic prescribing for CAP in outpatient settings, even though guidelines generally recommend narrow-spectrum agents when possible.The researchers included 145,137 adults aged 18 to 64 who were diagnosed as having CAP from July 1, 2007, through November 30, 2019, and evaluated CAP-related antibiotic regimen and ADEs experienced 2 to 90 days after treatment. Fifty-two percent of patients received narrow-spectrum antibiotics (44% macrolide, 8% doxycycline) and 48% received broad-spectrum antibiotics (39% fluoroquinolone, 7% beta-lactam, 3% beta-lactam plus macrolide). The most common ADEs were nausea/vomiting/abdominal pain, rash/urticaria, non–Clostridioides difficile diarrhea, and vulvovaginal candidiasis/vaginitisCompared with macrolide monotherapy, each broad-spectrum antibiotic was associated with increased risk of several ADEs. For example, beta-lactam was associated with increased risk of nausea/vomiting/abdominal pain (risk difference [RD] per 100, 0.32; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.10 to 0.57), non–C difficile diarrhea (RD per 100, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.25 to 0.68), and vulvovaginal candidiasis/vaginitis (RD per 100, 0.36; 95% CI, 0.09 to 0.69). Doxycycline largely conferred similar risk of ADEs as macrolide monotherapy. The authors say the results of the study add to accumulating evidence suggesting that efforts to shift prescribing from broad-spectrum to narrower-spectrum agents may prevent ADEs. “Ultimately, knowledge about antibiotic-related harms can help patients, prescribers, and stewardship programs make judicious decisions about antibiotic utilization," they wrote.

Antibiotic for liver disease is causing cross-resistance to daptomycin, study finds --A study by an international team of researchers suggests that widespread use of an antibiotic to prevent liver disease is causing cross-resistance to a last-resort antibiotic for treating vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium (VRE). The findings were published this week in the journal Nature.To understand the mechanisms behind increasing reports of daptomycin resistance in VRE, which is a multidrug-resistant pathogen and leading cause of hospital-related infections, a team led by researchers at the University of Melbourne conducted a combined genomic and phenotypic analysis of 998 VRE isolates collected in Australia from 2015 through 2018, 19.4% of which were daptomycin-resistant. The analysis revealed that daptomycin resistance in VRE is caused by an amino-acid substitution (rpoB) within the bacterial RNA of VRE that's associated with the use of rifaximin, an antibiotic predominantly prescribed to prevent recurrent hepatic encephalopathy in patients with liver cirrhosis, who are frequently colonized with VRE.Further analysis showed that the emergence of the rpoB mutations coincided with the first clinical use of rifaximin in 2006, that patients with recent exposure to rifaximin were more than eight times more likely to be colonized with VRE with rpoB mutations, and that VRE isolates with rpoB mutations have spread globally. In addition, animal experiments showed that administering rifaximin to VRE-colonized mice led to the emergence of daptomycin-resistant VRE strains within the gastrointestinal tract."We’ve shown that rifaximin makes VRE resistant to daptomycin in a way that has not been seen before," senior author Glen Carter, PhD, of the University of Melbourne, said in a university press release. "It is also of concern that these daptomycin-resistant VRE might be transmitted to other patients in the hospital; a hypothesis that we are presently investigating."Carter and his colleagues say the findings are surprising, since rifaximin was previously thought to be a low risk for resistance. They suggest daptomycin should be avoided for empiric therapy of VRE in patients receiving or recently treated with rifaximin, due to the higher risk of daptomycin resistance, and that rifaximin should remain a second-line option for hepatic encephalopathy prophylaxis

More than 300 products part of massive meat recall sold at Walmart, Target, Trader Joe’s, more– The USDA is warning people about additional ready-to-eat meat and poultry products that have been recalled due to a possible listeria contamination. Last week, the USDA released additional images of items that are part of the recall, which includes more than 300 items from many popular brands sold at major retailers. The products were sold at numerous chains including 7-Eleven, Trader Joe’s, Wegmans, Walmart, Target, Kroger, Meijer, H-E-B and more. The recall covers numerous items sold under popular brands such as Dole, Marketside, Atkins, Great Value, Good & Gather, Fresh Express and others. The USDA said nearly 10 million pounds of products are subject to recall, including items like pre-made salad kits and frozen dinners. The original recall was announced Wednesday, with additional products added to the list Thursday and Friday. The meat was produced by BrucePac, a food company located in Durant, Oklahoma. The products were produced from June 19, 2024, to Oct. 8, 2024, and shipped to distributors nationwide. The products subject to recall bear establishment numbers “51205 or P-51205” inside or under the USDA mark of inspection. So far, there have been no confirmed reports of illness, but anyone with concerns should contact a healthcare professional. Listeriosis can cause fever, muscle aches, headache, stiff neck, confusion, loss of balance and convulsions sometimes preceded by diarrhea or other gastrointestinal symptoms. The problem was discovered after officials performed routine testing of the meat and identified BrucePac RTE chicken as the source. Restaurants, institutions and other establishments are urged not to serve or use these products. These products should be thrown away or returned to the place of purchase.

Multistate E coli outbreak tied to McDonald's Quarter Pounders -US health officials are investigating a multistate Escherichia colioutbreak linked to McDonald's Quarter Pounder hamburgers.In a food safety alert posted yesterday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said the outbreak strain of E coli O157:H7 has infected 49 people in 10 states, with 10 hospitalizations and 1 death. More than half of the cases (26) have been reported in Colorado. The other affected states are Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Oregon, Utah, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.Along with the CDC, the US Department of Agriculture's Food Safety and Inspection Services (USDA-FSIS), the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), and public health and regulatory agencies in several states are collecting information on the outbreak.Of 18 people interviewed so far, all report eating at McDonald's prior to their illness, 16 report eating a beef hamburger, and 12 say they ate a Quarter Pounder. But a specific ingredient has not yet been confirmed as the source of the outbreak.USDA-FSIS is conducting trace-back investigations on hamburger patties served at McDonald's to determine if the ground beef is the source of the illness. The CDC, however, said preliminary trace-back and distribution data reviewed by the FDA indicate that fresh slivered onions could be the source. The Colorado Department of Public Health & Environment notes that the slivered onions used on Quarter Pounders are not on other McDonald's menu items. In a statement today, McDonald's said the onions are sourced from a single supplier that serves three distribution centers, and that the company has paused the distribution of all slivered onions in the impacted areas and instructed local restaurants to remove the product from their supply.McDonald's said it's also temporarily taking Quarter Pounders off the menu in restaurants in Colorado, Kansas, Utah, and Wyoming, as well as portions of Idaho, Iowa, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, and Oklahoma. E coli O157:H7 is a Shiga toxin–producing strain of E coli that causes severe stomach cramps, bloody diarrhea, and vomiting. Symptoms typically start 3 to 4 days after ingesting the bacteria, and most people recover without needing treatment. In addition to the one death, one hospitalized patient developed hemolytic uremic syndrome, which can cause kidney failure and even death. The CDC said illnesses in the outbreak started on dates ranging from September 27 to October 1. The age range of case-patients is 13 to 88 years. The agency advises people to call their healthcare provider if they've recently eaten a Quarter Pounder and are experiencing E coli symptoms.Michael Osterholm, PhD, MPH, director of the University of Minnesota's Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), which publishes CIDRAP News, says the number of people affected by the outbreak is likely much higher. "Based on our previous experience with foodborne outbreaks, seeing this many cases this early in an outbreak surely does support that there are many not-yet-reported cases."

McDonald's shares fall after CDC says E. coli outbreak linked to Quarter Pounders -- McDonald's shares dropped about 7% in premarket trading Wednesday morning after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said an E. coli outbreak linked to McDonald's Quarter Pounder burgers has led to 10 hospitalizations and one death. The agency said 49 cases have been reported in 10 states between Sept. 27 and Oct. 11, with most of the illnesses in Colorado and Nebraska. "Most" sick people reported eating a McDonald's Quarter Pounder, the CDC added. One of the patients developed hemolytic uremic syndrome, which is a serious condition that can cause kidney failure. An older adult in Colorado died. In a statement Tuesday, McDonald's said it is taking "swift and decisive action" following the E. Coli outbreak in certain states. The company said initial findings from the ongoing investigation show that some of the illnesses may be linked to slivered onions — or fresh onions sliced into thin shapes — that are used in the Quarter Pounder and sourced by a single supplier that serves three distribution centers. McDonald's has instructed all local restaurants to remove slivered onions from their supply and has paused the distribution of that ingredient in the affected area. This map shows where the 49 people in this E. coli outbreak live. Quarter Pounder hamburgers will be temporarily unavailable in several Western states, including Colorado, Kansas, Utah and Wyoming, and portions of other states, McDonald's said. It added that it was working with suppliers to replenish ingredients. The majority of states and menu items are not affected by the outbreak, McDonald's USA President Joe Erlinger said in a video. The company's other beef products, including the cheeseburger, hamburger, Big Mac, McDouble and the double cheeseburger, are not affected, he added. Those sandwiches use a different type of onion product. Quarter Pounder hamburgers are a core menu item for McDonald's, raking in billions of dollars each year. In 2018, McDonald's launched fresh beef for its Quarter Pounders across most of its U.S. stores. The CDC said the number of people affected by the outbreak is "likely much higher" than what has been reported so far. The agency said that is because many people recover from an E. coli infection without testing for it or receiving medical care. It also typically takes three to four weeks to determine if a sick patient is part of an outbreak, the CDC added.

More cases, hospitalizations reported in McDonald's-linked E coli outbreak -- The number of people infected in a multistate outbreak of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli linked to McDonald's Quarter Pounder hamburgers has risen from 49 to 75, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said today in an update.The outbreak of E coli O157:H7 has now affected people in 13 states, up from 10, with 22 people now hospitalized and 2 people diagnosed with hemolytic uremic syndrome, a serious condition that can cause kidney failure. One death was previously reported in an older adult in Colorado, which has reported the most cases (26).The other states affected by the outbreak are Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.Meanwhile, the investigation into the source of the outbreak continues. Of the 42 people who have been interviewed by the CDC so far, all 42 report eating at McDonald's, 39 report eating a hamburger, and 31 say the hamburger was a Quarter Pounder. While the Food and Drug Administration's Food Safety and Inspection Service (FDA-FSIS) is conducting trace-back investigations on hamburger patties, preliminary data reviewed by the agency are pointing to slivered onions as the source. In its update on the investigation, the FDA said that Taylor Farms, a California company with a Colorado facility that supplies slivered onions to the affected McDonald's locations, has initiated a voluntary recall of the product. Other customers who received onions from the company have been notified of the recall. The FDA says it's collecting onion samples for analysis and working with federal and state partners and the companies involved to evaluate records and distribution information as part of its investigation.The Associated Press reports that the outbreak has prompted other national restaurant chains to temporarily stop using fresh onions. Among them is Restaurant Brands, which owns Burger King and said that 5% of its restaurants use onions distributed by Taylor Farms' Colorado facility. Yum Brands, which owns Taco Bell, KFC, and Pizza Hut, is another.In addition to pausing distribution of all slivered onions supplied by Taylor Farms, McDonald's has also temporarily removed Quarter Pounders from restaurants in the impacted states.E coli O157:H7 causes severe stomach cramps, bloody diarrhea, and vomiting. Symptoms typically start 3 to 4 days after ingesting the bacteria, and most people recover without needing treatment. The CDC says people should call their healthcare provider if they've recently eaten a Quarter Pounder and are experiencingE coli symptoms.

What are you really eating? Study finds one in five seafood products are mislabeled -- If you eat seafood, you could be unknowingly consuming an endangered species without realizing it due to fish mislabeling. Mislabeling is a worldwide issue, and it occurs when the species of fish you think you're buying is not the one you actually receive. Tracing fish from capture to table is logistically complex, as fish products often pass through multiple countries. Along the way, products can be misidentified as another species or intentionally renamed to make more profit.For instance, a cheap fish like tilapia may be given the name of a more expensive fish, like red snapper, or an endangered species might be passed off as a better-faring alternative.Seafood mislabeling not only threatens vulnerable marine populations, but makes it harder for people to make informed, ethical choices about the food they eat.To investigate this issue in Canada, our recent research paper examined mislabeling and ambiguous market names in invertebrate and finfish products—fish with fins, like cod, salmon and tuna—in Calgary between 2014 and 2020. This was the first study of its kind in Canada to compare shellfish to finfish.University students sampled 347 finfish product and 109 shellfish—including shrimp, octopus and oysters—from Calgary restaurants and grocery stores. These samples were then genetically tested using a species-specific marker called a DNA barcode.In Canada, the Canadian Food Inspection Agency maintains a Fish List that provides the acceptable common names for the labeling of fish in Canada.A seafood product was considered mislabeled if it was sold using a name not found on the Fish List for the DNA-identified species. For instance, there is only one species that can be sold under the name salmon: Atlantic salmon. If sockeye salmon was sold as salmon without any other qualifier, it was considered mislabeled.We discovered that mislabeling is running rampant in Calgary, and that certain product names are more likely to hide species of conservation concern. The result: one in five finfish, and one in five shellfish, were not as advertised. These results fell within the predicted global rates of seafood mislabeling.It was not difficult for students to stumble upon examples of mislabeling. Notable findings include:

• 100 percent of snapper and red snapper products were mislabeled. They were either tilapia (79 percent) or a species of rockfish or snapper that cannot be sold under those names (21 percent).
• Nine salmon products were determined to be rainbow trout, which are cheaper.
• Three Pacific cod were determined to be Atlantic cod, which are listed as vulnerable by the International Union for Conservation of Nature.
• Two eel products were determined to be the critically endangered European eel.
• Cuttlefish, squid and octopus were often mislabeled as one another.

Some products, however, fared better than others. All Atlantic salmon, basa, halibut, mackerel, sockeye salmon and Pacific white shrimp were as advertised.Calgary's mislabeled seafoods has far-reaching and well-documented implications for public health, conservation and the economy.For instance, one student purchased "white tuna" at an all-you-can-eat sushi buffet that turned out to be escolar. Escolar is sometimes called the "laxative of the sea" for the effects its fatty acids can have on digestion. People have landed in the hospital because of this fish.Several examples of mislabeling involved substituting an expensive product for a cheaper species: tilapia for snapper, rainbow trout for Atlantic salmon. While companies in places like Miami and Mississippi have faced fines for such fraudulent practices, the global nature of fisheries makes legal action difficult. European eel are critically endangered, yet students found this species twice in the Calgary market. There is a global black market for European eel and a Canadian company was fined in 2021 for illegally importing them.Although red snapper is faring poorly in the wild, replacing it with tilapia is not helping snapper conservation. Instead it provides an illusion of snapper abundance.The situation is even murkier when it comes to invertebrates like shrimp, squid and octopus. Unfortunately, so little is known about their conservation status that we couldn't assess their risks.

Germany reports first mpox case from new clade - The Robert Koch Institute in Germany says the country has its first case of mpox cause by a new, more virulent variant causing a massive outbreak in Africa.The case-patient recently traveled abroad, but few other details were given by the institute.Germany is now the third country outside of Africa to report infections with what is being called mpox clade 1b. In August, Sweden and Thailand both reported a case.The Democratic Republic of the Congo has recorded the most cases of clade 1b, with the outbreak spreading to 17 neighboring countrieson the continent and 1,100 deaths now confirmed in Africa. According to the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, there have been 42,438 reported cases, with 8,113 confirmed as mpox, in Africa in 2024.

Mpox-measles co-infections reported in hard-hit DR Congo provinces -- Mpox activity in Africa continues at a steady pace, and though responders are seeing some promising trends, some countries face new challenges, including a rise in mpox-measles co-infections in children in two Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) provinces, officials from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) said yesterday. Ngashi Ngongo, MD, PhD, who leads Africa CDC's mpox incident management team, said suspected measles cases in South Kivu province began rising alongside mpox cases in early May, with a similar trend seen in North Kivu province. He said the pattern is very concerning.Coverage of measles-containing vaccine is very low in some areas, leaving a cohort of unvaccinated children vulnerable to the highly transmissible disease, he said. He added that trends underscore the risk of co-infection in treatment centers, especially in areas with low measles vaccination rates. Most of the cases have occurred in children younger than 15 years old.Ngongo said other factors likely play a role, such as high rates of childhood malnutrition, which can weaken the immune system and increase vulnerability to both diseases. He said researchers are still trying to understand the interaction between measles and mpox. He added that trends underscore the risk of co-infection in treatment centers, especially in areas with low measles vaccination rates. The region last week reported 2,729 new cases, 1,001 confirmed by lab tests. Twenty-six more people died from their infections. The DRC and Burundi accounted for 96% of last week's cases. So far this year, the region has reported 45,327 cases, including 1,014 deaths. Ngongo said Liberia, Kenya, and Uganda all reported rising cases. He noted several promising developments, however, including that 5 of the 18 affected countries haven't reported a confirmed case in 4 weeks: Cameroon, Gabon, Guinea, Rwanda, and South Africa.Another positive development in the outbreak response is high acceptance of the mpox vaccine in the DRC and Rwanda, including in congested setting in the DRC such as prisons and camps of internally displaced people. Vaccination is under way in Rwanda and in three DRC provinces. In the DRC, the vaccine campaign in Kinshasa is expected to begin on November 5. After a delay, Nigeria is slated to begin vaccinating on October 29. Ngongo said that, so far, 5.6 million doses of mpox vaccine have been confirmed, including 2.57 million doses of Bavarian Nordic's Jynneos vaccine and 3 million doses of the LC-16 vaccine from Japan.

Global cholera deaths are surging, WHO says -The number of cholera cases reported in 2024 has declined compared with 2023, but deaths have more than doubled, according to the latest outbreak report from the World Health Organization (WHO).Through September 29, a total of 437,724 cholera cases have been reported across five of the six WHO regions, a 16% drop from the previous year. But the 3,432 reported cholera deaths represent a 126% increase. The WHO says the spike in deaths may be attributed in part to where cholera outbreaks have occurred this year, such as conflict-affected areas where access to healthcare is compromised, regions where massive flooding has damaged critical infrastructure, and areas with inadequate medical facilities.These conditions, particularly when they occur in rural and remote regions, can boost transmission and significantly hamper efforts to contain the bacterial disease, which spreads through water and food contaminated with the Vibrio cholerae bacterium. Cholera causes severe diarrhea and dehydration that can be life-threatening if it goes untreated.Cholera cases have been rising globally since 2021, and case-fatality rates in some affected countries are some of the highest seen in a decade."The dynamics of cholera outbreaks are becoming increasingly complex, driven by factors that transcend borders—such as mass displacement, natural disasters, civil unrest, military conflict, and climate change,"the WHO said. "Recent severe floods across Central and West Africa, as well as South-East Asia, have intensified cholera transmission, with several countries continuing to report surges in cases."Among the countries that have been hardest hit by cholera this year are Afghanistan (143,327 cases), Pakistan (60,369), Yemen (36,404), the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC; 25,221), Ethiopia (23,391), and Sudan (20,062). The DRC and Sudan are among the countries in which ongoing conflict is increasing the risk of cholera transmission and preventing people from accessing healthcare.Since the September report, new cholera outbreaks have been reported in Niger (705 cases) and Thailand (15 cases), bringing the total number of affected countries this year to 30.The WHO said immediate investment is needed for rapid emergency response to the surge in cases, and that it will continue to work with UNICEF and other partners to continue streamlining the supply of essential cholera materials to countries in need. But it also noted that, as of October 14, the global supply of oral cholera vaccine is depleted, with no doses available. Of the 8.4 million doses requested by five countries from September 1 to October 14, only 7.6 million could be shipped.

Five countries report 17 new polio cases -Pakistan reported seven wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) cases this week, and Afghanistan reported one, all part of an ongoing spike, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) said in an update yesterday. And three African countries—Chad, Niger, and Nigeria—reported three, one, and five circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) cases, respectively.The seven WPV1 cases in Pakistan, with paralysis onsets in August and September, are from Balochistan in the Quetta, Pishin Noshki and Chaman districts; two are from Sindh in the Sanghar and Mirpurkhas districts; and one is from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in Lakkimarwat. The new cases bring this year's WPV1 total to 39.The one WPV1 case in Afghanistan, from Hilmand province in the Masaqalah district, takes the country's total WPV1 cases to 23 this year.In Chad, 3 new cVDPV2 cases in N'Djamena, Ouaddai, and Chari Baguirmi provinces in July and August boost the country's 2024 total to 11. Niger's 1 cVDPV2 case was reported in Zinder province in August, bringing the country's case tally to 10. With Nigeria's 5 new cVDPV2 cases—which were reported in August and September in Sokoto, Gombe, Jigawa, and Kaduna states—the country's case total is now 66.

Quick Takes: Polio vaccines in Gaza, dengue in Los Angeles County | CIDRAP

• A large-scale polio vaccination campaign in Gaza has been postponed due to increasing violence, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). The campaign is on its final leg and was supposed to reach 119,279 children across northern Gaza this week. "The current conditions, including ongoing attacks on civilian infrastructure continue to jeopardize people’s safety and movement in northern Gaza, making it impossible for families to safely bring their children for vaccination," the WHO said. Gaza reported its first polio case in 25 years in August, amid the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas. To date, 442,855 children under 10 years have been successfully vaccinated in central and south Gaza, representing 94% of the target.
• The Los Angeles County Department of Public Health reports one more dengue case in the Baldwin Park cluster, bringing the total number of cases to 6. The new case raises the county's total of locally acquired dengue to 9 for the season. All infected patients had no history of travel to places where dengue is common prior to their symptoms.

CDC traces Legionnaires' outbreaks on 2 cruise ships to hot tubs -Today in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR), researchers from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) describe two cruise-ship outbreaks of Legionnaires' disease tied to private balcony hot tubs.From November 2022 to June 2024, 12 cases of Legionnaires' disease were reported to the CDC among travelers on two cruise ships, with eight on ship A and four on ship B. The ship A outbreak was the largest cruise Legionnaires' disease outbreak that the CDC had investigated since 2008. Legionnaires' is a serious type of pneumonia caused by Legionella bacteria.CDC investigators interviewed the ill travelers and analyzed environmental samples, concluding that private balcony hot tubs were the most likely source of the bacteria.Hot tubs on ship A had been operating for months under conditions conducive to Legionella growth, which included maintaining a water temperature of 77°F to 113°F for multiple days without draining or residual disinfectant. Some tubs on this ship were located on decks only one floor above or below common outdoor amenities. The CDC noted that previous investigations have shown that hot tubs in private areas can spread pathogens via aerosols to common areas and expose people in those areas—even those who don't use the tubs themselves."Hot tubs offer favorable conditions for Legionella growth and transmission when maintained and operated inadequately, regardless of location," the researchers wrote. "Private hot tubs on cruise ships are not subject to the same maintenance requirements as are public hot tubs in common areas." The investigators recommend that cruise-ship water-management staff inventory and evaluate private balcony hot tubs and adapt maintenance and operations procedures used for public hot tubs for use in private outdoor hot tubs. Both cruise lines modified the operation and maintenance of the private hot tubs by removing the heating elements, draining water between uses, and cleaning and hyperchlorinating them more often.

WHO lauds Rwanda's Marburg response as country shares initial genetic findings -The head of the World Health Organization (WHO) yesterday praised Rwanda's Marburg virus outbreak response, including its success in treating patients infected with a disease known to have a high case-fatality rate.Rwanda has gone 7 days with no new cases, and the number of patients who are still in treatment has dwindled to 1, according to a daily update today from Rwanda's health ministry.The comments from WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, PhD, came during a press briefing alongside Rwanda's health minister Sabin Nsanzimana, MD, PhD. Tedros was in Rwanda over the weekend, where he visited the country's Marburg treatment center, the outbreak command post, a vaccine manufacturing facility, and President Paul Kagame."Leadership from the highest levels of government is essential in any outbreak response, and that's what we see here in Rwanda," Tedros said.The level of critical care that Marburg patients received in Rwanda was also impressive. He said two patients who had multiple organ failure and were put on life support were successfully intubated, then extubated as they recovered. "We believe this is the first time patients with Marburg virus have been extubated in Africa. These patients would have died in previous outbreaks," Tedros said. Nsanzimana said treatment focused on early management with antivirals, use of monoclonal antibodies, and supportive and clinical treatment.The outbreak stands at 62 confirmed cases, 15 of them fatal. So far, 46 people have recovered from their infections.

Marburg virus infects 1 more in Rwanda, 63 total -After 8 days with no new cases, Rwanda's health ministry yesterday reported 1 new illness, raising the outbreak total to 63 cases, as the number of deaths held steady at 15. Two patients are still in treatment, and 46 have recovered.At a media briefing with the Africa Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (Africa CDC), Rwanda Minister of Health Sabin Nsanzimana, MD, PhD, said the latest patient is a healthcare provider who works in the Marburg treatment center.Though the man tested positive, he is doing well and doesn't have the usual Marburg symptoms. The patient had been vaccinated against Marburg a few days ago, and it's not clear if he was exposed to the virus before or after vaccination. The patient had no contacts outside the Marburg treatment center and had been living in a setting where the infection prevention and control protocol was high.

Rwanda's latest Marburg virus case has links to cave site - For the second day in a row, yesterday Rwanda reported another Marburg virus case, which was found during follow-up of contacts of the outbreak's index patient.The latest illness lifts the number of confirmed cases to 64, with the number of deaths holding steady at 15, according to a daily health ministry update. In another update today, the ministry reported no new cases or deaths. Two people are in treatment, and 46 people have recovered from their infections.Regarding Rwanda's latest two cases, the World Health Organization (WHO) said in an outbreak updatetoday that one of the cases involves a healthcare worker who had been caring for Marburg patients, and the other is linked to a site where the index patient was exposed.At a weekly press briefing yesterday hosted by Africa Centres for Disease Prevention and Control (Africa CDC), Rwanda Minister of Health Sabin Nsanzimana, MD, PhD, said the index patient is thought to have contracted the virus in a cave where fruit bats, known to carry the virus, were living. He added that the cave is located in a mining area and that a current focus is making sure fruit bats are not interacting with humans.The WHO said the index patient is a man between the ages of 20 and 30. The agency said it doesn't yet know the date of symptom onset. The incubation period for Marburg infection can range from 2 to 21 days, with symptoms such as high fever, headache, and severe malaise that can appear abruptly. Rwandan scientists last week said genetic sequencing suggests the virus spreading in Rwanda is very similar to that reported before in the region.

Washington reports 4 suspected H5 avian flu infections in poultry workers - The Washington State Department of Health (WSDH) yesterday reported its first suspected avian flu infections in people, which involve four agricultural workers who tested positive after working with infected poultry at an egg-laying farm in Franklin County.Elsewhere, the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) on October18 reported 2 more confirmed H5 infections in people who were exposed to sick dairy cattle, raising the state's total to 13.The workers in Washington were at a facility where about 800,000 birds were culled after testing by the Washington State Department of Agriculture on October 15 showed the poultry were positive for avian flu. Franklin County is in the southeastern part of the state. The results in poultry have been confirmed by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS).The spurt of infections in poultry workers is reminiscent of what Colorado experienced over the summer, when nine infections were reported in cullers who were part of the response outbreaks on large commercial farms.The WSDH said the Benton-Franklin Health District conducted health checks of exposed workers and coordinated testing at the Washington State Public Health Lab. Samples have been sent to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for final confirmation. Similar to earlier infections in US poultry and dairy farm workers, the Washington patients had mild symptoms and have been provided with antiviral medication. The WSDH said test results on other farm workers are pending and that case numbers could change.The Benton-Franklin Health District is asking any employees or contractors who may have worked on a Benton or Franklin county poultry farm since October 7 to contact the health department if they have symptoms such as conjunctivitis or respiratory infection. Meanwhile, the USDA confirmed a second highly pathogenic avian flu outbreak in Washington poultry, which appears to involve a backyard facility that has 60 birds. The Washington and California cases, if confirmed, would push the national total this year to 31 human cases, all but 1 linked to contact with infected poultry or cattle. Amid an uptick in H5N1 detections in dairy cows and poultry, the USDA has confirmed an outbreak at a broiler farm in the same Central Valley area that has been hit hard by outbreaks in dairy cows. The virus was detected at a broiler facility in Tulare County that has 786,600 birds.Also, the USDA has confirmed the virus in 7 more California dairy herds, raising the state's total to 131 and the national total of confirmed outbreaks to 331 across 14 states.

Avian flu biomarker was circulating in Texas wastewater weeks before outbreaks in cattle Wastewater surveillance with an H5N1 avian flu probe retrospectively deployed to investigate unseasonably high influenza A in Texas in early 2024 was able to detect the virus 2 weeks before cases were reported and a month before the virus was confirmed, which may have been able to speed the public health response, according to study results presented at IDWeek.Researchers on the WastewaterSCAN team at Stanford University retrospectively developed and deployed a probe for a biomarker of avian influenza to plants across the United States. WastewaterSCAN monitors the levels of 11 viruses such as SARS-CoV-2 and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in 190 municipal wastewater systems three times a week to inform local, regional, and national public health responses.The probe detected the biomarker for H5N1 at three Texas treatment plants, with two confirming that animal protein had already left processing facilities such as dairy farms. The researchers then compared the results with clinical data on flu-related healthcare visits.The findings demonstrate the value of wastewater surveillance in tracking and flagging zoonotic viruses in agricultural facilities before cases appear in animals or people, the authors said. "Every second counts when responding to emerging pathogens—that's why wastewater surveillance is a critical tool in the public health toolbox," presenting author Alessandro Zulli, PhD, postdoctoral fellow at Stanford University, said in the IDWeek news release. "Expanded use of wastewater surveillance will give public health professionals the early warning system they need to address emerging infectious diseases threats."

Serologic tests rule out avian flu in Missouri health workers; CDC confirms 2 Washington infections -Officials from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) today said serologic testing has ruled out H5 avian flu infection among five healthcare workers who had symptoms around the time they were exposed to a patient in Missouri, though results suggest a household contact was likely infected at the same time.At a Department of Health and Human Services briefing today, CDC officials also said tests have confirmed H5 infection in two Washington poultry cullers, though the virus is the D.1.1 genotype, which is different that the B3.13 genotype circulating in US dairy cattle.Demetre Daskalakis, MD, MPH, who directs the CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said the CDC faced challenges with serologic tests to assess if symptomatic health workers exposed to an earlier confirmed hospitalized patient in Missouri, along with a household contact of the patient, had also contracted the virus. For example, the patient’s sample didn’t yield all sequences of the virus, and CDC scientists had to reverse-engineer it to develop serologic tests.Tests on blood samples of all five health workers were negative on all serologic tests, which rules out person-to-person spread in the hospital setting, Daskalakis said. The CDC today also detailed the findings in a Spotlight on its website. A sixth health worker had respiratory symptoms but tested negative for H5, so that patient didn’t undergo serologic testing.Results from the suite of three serologic tests showed that the patient’s household contact, who came down with gastrointestinal symptoms on the same day as the patient, was likely exposed to the virus but doesn’t meet the criteria to be counted as human H5N1 case. The patient and the household contact both tested positive on a microneutralization assay but not the other two tests. In earlier testing, the patient’s respiratory sample was positive on polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing.Daskalakis said the identical illness onsets of the patient and the household contact hint at exposure to an unknown animal source or animal product rather than human-to-human spread.Meanwhile, Nirav Shah, MD, JD, the CDC’s principal deputy director, said CDC tests have confirmed H5 in two of the four presumptive positives from Washington state poultry cullers. He added that further testing is under way on at least five other presumptive positives from the state.The cases, Washington’s first, were announced by state health officials on October 20. The workers were part of a team culling poultry in the wake of a large outbreak on a layer farm in Franklin County. Shah said the two patients with confirmed infections had mild respiratory symptoms and conjunctivitis.He said the genotype is D1.1 and belongs to the 2.3.4.4b clade that is circulating globally in wild birds, with occasional spillovers to poultry flocks. Though the D1.1 genotype is distinct from the B1.13 virus circulating in US dairy cattle, it causes similar mild symptoms, including conjunctivitis. He credited Washington state for its strong public health preparedness and said its health officials have been conducting exercises to prepare for outbreaks in animals and the arrival of human cases. Nirav said health officials were in the midst of such an exercise in the region where the poultry outbreak occurred on the same day the first human cases were picked up. “Some thought it was an injection into the exercise,” he said.For now, the national total of H5 infections this year is 31 cases, which Shah said is expected to rise as more confirmation tests are completed. Washington health officials had also said they expect the number of confirmed cases to rise, as state testing identifies more suspected cases. Health officials said the risk to the general public remains low but is higher for people who have occupational exposure to sick animals. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) confirmedthree more outbreaks in California dairy herds, raising its total to 137, and two more in Idaho, pushing the state’s total to 36. So far, tests have confirmed avian flu in 339 dairy herds across 14 states. Meanwhile, the Utah Department of Agriculture and Food (UDAF) yesterday announced mandatory weekly bulk tank sampling for all dairy herds in Cache County, following the confirmation of a large outbreak at a layer farm in Cache County that has more than 1.8 million birds.“Genetic sequencing has confirmed that the HPAI H5N1 virus recently detected in a Cache County commercial poultry facility is the same one that has impacted dairy cattle in other states,” the UDAF said. “Currently, there have been no confirmed cases of HPAI [highly pathogenic avian influenza] in Utah dairies.” A positive bulk milk-tank sample would trigger quarantine of the dairy herd and movement restrictions on lactating cows, except for those going directly to slaughter, the UDAF said.

Bird flu outbreak in California kills dairy cattle — Of the 27 known bird flu cases in humans, about half have been seen in California dairy workers.Most are fighting mild symptoms such as conjunctivitis and fever. None were hospitalized.The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention say the current public health risk of the disease to humans is low. However, there is urgent concern over dairy cows. In California’s Central Valley, the carcasses of dead cattle have been piling up, a phenomenon documented in videos taken by a local veterinarian.According to the CDC, there have been confirmed infections in more than 300 herds of cattle in the U.S. in 14 states since March.“The number of affected herds continues to grow nationally, with almost all new infections identified in herds in California,” the CDC said in an update from last week.All available data so far suggests sporadic instances of animal-to-human spread, according to the CDC.“CDC is watching the situation carefully and working with states to monitor people with animal exposures,” the agency said.There are nearly 2 million dairy cows in California that produce about 20% of the national supply.Federal and state health officials say milk found in grocery stores is safe to drink since it is pasteurized, which means it goes through a process that kills off viruses.Researchers have yet to figure out how, where and when the H5N1 virus is spreading at dairy farms as well as why the mortality rate among California’s dairy cows has been as high as 20%.“We do not know nearly enough about how this virus is transmitted among animals. That’s why what we’re doing right now is really important,” Kaitlyn Sarlo Davila, a researcher with the National Animal Disease Center, said. “We are evaluating the spread on milking equipment — but then we definitely need to consider some other avenues.”Experts say the virus has been tracked transferring from birds to cows and back again, making it harder to contain. Each transfer is believed to increase the chances of mutation in a way that makes it easier for people to get infected.

As bird flu outbreaks rise, piles of dead cattle seen in Central Valley – LATimes — There’s a sickness hovering over Tulare County‘s dairy industry. On a recent 98-degree afternoon, dead cows and calves were piled up along the roadside. Thick swarms of black flies hummed and knocked against the windows of an idling car, while crows and vultures waited nearby — eyeballing the taut and bloated carcasses roasting in the October heat. Since the H5N1 bird flu virus was first reported in California in early August, 124 dairy herds and 13 people — all dairy workers — had been infected as of Friday. And according to dairy experts, the spread of the virus has yet to abate. “I’m surprised there are that few reported,” Anja Raudabaugh, chief executive of Western United Dairies, a California dairy trade organization, said recently after being told the latest case number was 105. “This thing is not slowing down.” A similar observation was made by Jimmy Andreoli II, spokesman for Baker Commodities, a rendering company with facilities in Southern California. He said his workers are picking up a surge of dead cows throughout the San Joaquin Valley. “There’s definitely been an increased number of fallen animals lately, and some of that has got to be attributed to the long, hot summer we’ve had. And some of it, you know, certainly is attributed to the H5N1 virus,” he said, noting that one of his drivers picked up 20 to 30 animals at one farm in one day. Andreoli said that at some farms the cows are intentionally being left on the roadside to reduce contamination — preventing further inter-farm spread. At others, the animals are left on-site — but away from live animals and people. The diseased carcasses are brought to Baker’s rendering site in the Fresno County town of Kerman, where the bodies are “recycled” and turned into “high protein” animal feed and fertilizer, or rendered into liquids that are then used in fuels, paints, varnishes, lubricants “and all sort of different industrial products.” Despite the gruesome scene along the Tipton roadside, John Korslund, a retired U.S. Department of Agriculture veterinarian epidemiologist, said there was probably very little risk to public health in having the animals piled up — even if they were picked at and consumed by buzzards, ravens and flies. “At death, virus replication stops and putrefaction and heat begins to neutralize live virus,” he said. “Virus will survive on the carcass surface — not for long at 100 degrees — but temperature and acidification pretty rapidly neutralize it in the carcass, at least influenza viruses.” Raudabaugh said although she and the dairy farmers she represents had been reading about the virus for months before it hit, no one was prepared for the devastation and unevenness with which the virus has struck California’s dairy herds. She said on some farms, the cows seem virtually unaffected, despite being infected. While on others, the animals are dying in droves. She also said some breeds are hit harder than others. For instance, Holsteins seem to suffer more than Jerseys. “The reason is because Holsteins produce more milk. So they have more volume for the virus to enjoy,” she said, noting research showing the virus’ affinity for mammary tissue.

Avian flu infects 2 more dairy workers in California's Central Valley -The California Department of Public Health (CDPH) todayreported two more H5 avian influenza infections, both confirmed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), raising the state's total to 15.Earlier this week, Merced County, in the Central Valley, reported its first human H5N1 avian flu case, which involves a person who had direct exposure to sick cattle on a dairy farm. It's not clear if the case is reflected in California's latest total.In a statement, the county said the case was detected based on symptoms, with results confirmed by lab tests. All people who were exposed to the cattle have been notified and are being monitored for symptoms.The newly confirmed California cases raise the US number of human H5 infections this year to 27, which doesn't yet include four presumptive positive cases reported in poultry workers in Washington state.Meanwhile, US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) hasconfirmed one more H5N1 outbreak in a California dairy herd, raising the state's total to 134. In other H5 developments, Quest Diagnostics today announced that the CDC has awarded it several contracts to support testing and lab readiness for H5 avian flu and Oropouche virus, a vectorborne illness that is expanding its reach in the Americas.The H5 molecular test is intended for use in people with suspected infections and will be available with a prescription from a healthcare provider by the end of the month. The test is designed to identify the H5 avian flu virus, but not seasonal flu strains or other respiratory viruses. The test uses respiratory or conjunctival specimens. Currently, commercial labs don't do H5 subtyping, which requires that the samples be sent to state or local public health labs or to the CDC for avian influenza identification.

Biden administration finalizes ‘zero tolerance’ lead paint dust standard - The Biden administration on Wednesday announced the finalized version of a federal rule tightening standards for exposure to lead paint dust. The rule, which finalizes a proposal issued last June, will tighten the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) hazard level for lead dust to the point that any amount detected in a building would be considered dangerous. The agency estimates nearly 1.2 million people a year would be exposed to lower levels of lead under the rule, including as many as 326,000 children younger than six. Despite the nearly half-century old ban on lead paint, it remains in an estimated 31 million homes built before 1978, including 3.8 million homes where children under 6 live, an EPA official said on a call with reporters. Dust from flaking and peeling paint remains an ongoing threat as those structures age, and they are disproportionately located in Black, Latino and low-income neighborhoods. The official summarized the final rule as a “zero-tolerance standard,” saying that if lead levels exceed that threshold, abatement specialists will be deployed and “their jobs will not be considered done until they have reached the lowest levels of lead our labs can reliably detect.” Lead exposure has been linked to low birth weight and impaired brain development and motor skills in children. “Too often our children, the most vulnerable residents of already overburdened communities, are the most profoundly impacted by the toxic legacy of lead-based paint,” EPA Administrator Michael S. Regan said in a statement. “EPA is getting the lead out of communities nationwide. “These protections will reduce lead exposures for hundreds of thousands of people every year, helping kids grow up healthy and meet their full potential,” Regan continued. The final rule comes weeks after another EPA rule requiring water systems to replace all water lines containing lead in the next 10 years, projecting the standard would avert 900,000 cases of low birth weight in infants and 1,500 premature heart disease deaths per year.

CWD-infected deer identified for first time in Montana's Flathead Valley -A white-tailed deer in Kalispell, Montana, has tested positive for chronic wasting disease (CWD), the first detection of the fatal disease in a wild herd in Hunting District (HD) 170 in the Flathead Valley, Montana Fish, Wildlife, and Parks (FWP) reported yesterday.FWP said wildlife biologists euthanized a buck with CWD symptoms at the Flathead County Landfill after receiving reports on the animal. The deer tested positive for CWD, and a second follow-up test was sent for confirmation."FWP is working with Flathead County and will survey the landfill for any other potentially symptomatic deer on the property," the agency said in a news release. "Following the latest detection, all hunters in HD 170 are encouraged to get their harvested deer and elk tested for CWD."CWD, a neurologic disease caused by misfolded infectious proteins called prions, was first identified in wild herds in Montana in 2017. The illness affects cervids such as deer, elk, moose, and reindeer. Prions are extremely resilient and can persist in the environment for years. CWD poses an ongoing threat to cervids, because it can spread from animal to animal and through environmental contamination. The disease isn't known to infect humans, but officials recommend not eating meat from a sick animal and using precautions when field-dressing or butchering cervids.

Polar bears' exposure to pathogens is increasing as their environment changes, blood samples suggest - As the Arctic warms, polar bears now face a greater risk of contracting several pathogens than bears three decades ago. Karyn Rode and Caroline Van Hemert of the U.S. Geological Survey report these findings in a new study published October 23, 2024, in the open-access journal PLOS ONE. The environmental changes associated with global warming are creating new opportunities for viruses, bacteria and parasites to infect Arctic wildlife. Polar bears, a top predator with a large range, may be affected by changes in pathogen transmission. In the new study, researchers examined blood samples from polar bears in the Chukchi Sea in 1987–1994 and then three decades later, 2008-2017, looking for antibodies to six pathogens. Five of these pathogens had become more common in the later samples: the parasites that cause toxoplasmosis and neosporosis, the bacteria that cause rabbit fever and brucellosis, and the canine distemper virus. The increases in the prevalence of these pathogens represent some of the most rapid changes in exposure ever reported among polar bears. Researchers also looked at factors that increased the bears' risk of exposure to these pathogens and found that exposure varied with diet and was higher in females than males, potentially as a result of pregnant females denning on land to raise cubs. In the Arctic, where warming is occurring at nearly four times the global rate and polar bears are experiencing a rapid loss of their sea ice habitat, infectious diseases present a growing concern to both wildlife managers and human communities. People living in the Arctic sometimes hunt polar bears for food, and many of the pathogens whose presence was detected in this study can also be transmitted to humans. The researchers conclude that since polar bears face multiple stressors related to climate change and are a subsistence food, further work is warranted to screen these populations for signs of disease. The authors add, "For some pathogens, the number of polar bears testing positive for serum antibodies, an indicator of pathogen exposure, more than doubled and were among the highest levels identified in a population. These results suggest that pathogen transmission pathways have changed in this Arctic ecosystem."

Poaching suspected as camera traps find only 11 Sumatran tigers in 2 years (video) Camera-trap monitoring detected only 11 individual Sumatran tigers (Panthera tigris sumatrae) and no cubs between 2020 and 2022 in the Ulu Masen Ecosystem, Sumatra Island, Indonesia, reports a paper published in Scientific Reports. The high proportion of male tigers observed suggests severe levels of poaching are taking place, highlighting the urgent need for greater monitoring and targeted protection of this critically endangered species. Sumatran tigers are one of the rarest tiger subspecies, with as few as 400 individuals left in the wild. However, up to 70% of tigers live in unprotected areas outside National Parks where population data is sparse. Ulu Masen is a key habitat for tigers but is not part of a National Park and has been insufficiently surveyed for tigers. Researcher Joe Figel and colleagues conducted Ulu Masen's first status assessment of Sumatran tigers and their prey—including sambar, serow, wild boar, and southern red muntjac—between 2020 and 2022 using data from 52 camera trap stations. Across 6,732 nights of recording, tigers were seen 39 times and the authors identified 11 individual animals: eight males, one female, and two of unknown sex. No cubs were seen during this period. Only three tigers were seen more than once—including a three-legged male—and none of the individuals observed in 2020 were seen again in 2022. Tigers were estimated to occur across 52% of the study area. Sambar, a key prey for tigers due to their large size, were seen at 21 camera locations, while muntjac were seen at 48. Although the presence of 11 individual tigers suggests a sizable number of tigers may still live in Ulu Masen, the lack of breeding females and the apparent high population turnover are not indicative of a healthy population. These traits generally indicate severe levels of poaching, according to the authors. They recommend the introduction of greater protections for tigers in this region, including the deployment of between 560 and 640 trained rangers. They also recommend more comprehensive camera-trap monitoring of tigers, specifically focused on identifying the sex of the animal.

Wild animals can also experience trauma and adversity: Ecologists create an index to track the effects --Psychologists know that childhood trauma, or the experience of harmful or adverse events, can have lasting repercussions on the health and well-being of people well into adulthood. But while the consequences of early adversity have been well researched in humans, people aren't the only ones who can experience adversity.If you have a rescue dog, you probably have witnessed how the abuse or neglect it may have experienced earlier in life now influences its behavior—these pets tend to be more skittish or reactive. Wild animals also experience adversity. Although their negative experiences are easy to dismiss as part of life in the wild, they still have lifelong repercussions—just like traumatic events in people and pets.As behavioral ecologists, we are interested in how adverse experiences early in life can affect animals' behavior, including the kinds of decisions they make and the way they interact with the world around them. In other words, we want to see how these experiences affect the way they behave and survive in the wild.Many studies on humans and other animals have shown the importance of early life experiences in shaping how individuals develop. But researchers know less about how multiple, different instances of adversity or stressors can accumulate within the body and what their overall impact is on an animal's well-being. Wild populations face many kinds of stressors. They compete for food, risk getting eaten by a predator, suffer illness and must contend with extreme weather conditions. And as if life in the wild wasn't hard enough, humans are now adding additional stressors such as chemical, light and sound pollution, as well as habitat destruction. Given the widespread loss of biodiversity, understanding how animals react to and are harmed by these stressors can help conservation groups better protect them. But accounting for such a diversity of stressors is no easy feat. To address this need and demonstrate the cumulative impact of multiple stressors, our research team decided to develop an index for wild animals based on psychological research on human childhood trauma. Developmental psychologists began to develop what psychologists now call the adverse childhood experiences score, which describes the amount of adversity a person experienced as a child. Briefly, this index adds up all the adverse events—including forms of neglect, abuse or other household dysfunction—an individual experienced during childhood into a single cumulative score. This score can then be used to predict later-life health risks such as chronic health conditions, mental illness or even economic status. This approach has revolutionized many human health intervention programs by identifying at-risk children and adults, which allows for more targeted interventions and preventive efforts. So, what about wild animals? Can we use a similar type of score or index to predict negative survival outcomes and identify at-risk individuals and populations?These are the questions we were interested in answering in our latest research paper. We developed a framework on how to create a cumulative adversity index—similar to the adverse childhood experiences score, but for populations of wild animals. We then used this index to gain insights about the survival and longevity of yellow-bellied marmots.

Ground nesting birds declining faster than any other bird species in Europe --Ground-nesting bird populations are more likely to be in decline than any other European bird species, warns new report. As bird populations decline globally, with record losses in many European breeds having been recorded in recent years, researchers from the UCD School of Agriculture and Food Science, and the Spanish research institute, Instituto de Investigación en Recursos Cinegéticos (IREC), found ground-nesting birds were 86% more likely to suffer a population decline than birds with other nesting strategies. Published in the journal Global Ecology and Conservation, the new paper highlights that current habitat management measures have been ineffective in reversing these widespread declines and that predator control, although unpalatable to many conservationists, may be required in the short term to help reverse these decline. "Although the Birds and Habitats Directive have been in existence for many years their effect does not seem to be impact ground-nesting birds," said lead author Dr. Barry McMahon, UCD School of Agriculture and Food Science. Analyzing national bird population trends from ten European countries, including Ireland and the UK, Dr. McMahon found ground-nesting birds were 15.6 times more likely than other birds to have a declining trend across Europe, and ground-nesting birds in agricultural habitats were 17.8 times more likely to experience a drop in their numbers than those birds that nest in other habitats. Matching trends across Europe showed consistently that this probability of population decline was related to nesting strategy and breeding habitat. Most bird species in Europe classified as being at risk of various levels of extinction risk (Near Threatened, Vulnerable, Endangered or Critically Endangered) are ground-nesting species. Among these is the Eurasian (or Common) Curlew, one of the most threatened species in Ireland and the only Irish bird on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. The study expresses doubt that current legislation is sufficient to halt the widespread decline in ground-nesting birds; stating a need for new policy and conservation strategies including an efficient predation control system.

Burmese pythons can eat bigger prey than previously thought -Burmese pythons can consume prey even larger than scientists realized, according to a new study published in the journal Reptiles & Amphibians.That means more animals are on the menu across southern Florida, where the nonnative, invasive snakes have decimated populations of foxes, bobcats, raccoons and other animals.Pythons swallow deer, alligators and other prey whole. What they eat is limited in part by how big an animal they can wrap their flexible, stretchy jaws around. Researchers call this the snake's gape.University of Cincinnati Professor Bruce Jayne said measurements of snakes captured in and around Everglades National Park show that the biggest pythons have an even bigger gape than mathematical models would suggest.Jayne examined three of the largest snakes captured by research partners Ian Easterling and Ian Bartoszek at the Conservancy of Southwest Florida, measuring 15, 17 and 19 feet long. Researchers had previously examined pythons with a gape of 22 centimeters (or 8.7 inches) in diameter. But the largest of the snakes Jayne's research partners captured had a maximal gape of 26 centimeters (or 10.2 inches)."That doesn't sound like a lot—just 18% bigger," Jayne said.But the total area of the gape increased by a whopping 40%, Jayne said. The largest snakes had a gape circumference of more than 81 centimeters—the equivalent of a 32-inch waist on a pair of pants.That means snakes can consume far larger prey than was previously known. Based on prey items researchers found inside Burmese pythons, researchers know they will kill and consume animals nearly too big to swallow. Researchers observed one snake consuming a 77-pound deer, representing two-thirds of the snake's total mass."Watching an invasive apex predator swallow a full-sized deer in front of you is something that you will never forget," Bartoszek said. "The impact the Burmese python is having on native wildlife cannot be denied. This is a wildlife issue of our time for the Greater Everglades ecosystem."

Nonnative plants are a major force behind global insect invasions, study finds -- In an article in the journal BioScience, an international team of researchers led by Dr. Cleo Bertelsmeier from the University of Lausanne, Switzerland, argues that the global spread of nonnative plants is a key factor driving the growing number of insect invasions worldwide. The research challenges traditional assumptions about the principal causes of nonnative insect invasions. The authors note that when nonnative plants become established in new regions, they create ecological niches that permit the establishment of insect species from the plants' native ranges, which can produce further cascading effects. "Plant invasions facilitate insect invasions directly by providing ecological niches for arriving insect herbivores, and indirectly by favoring the establishment of insect predators and parasitoids," resulting in a cascade of effects described as an "invasional meltdown." Bertelsmeier and colleagues synthesize multiple lines of evidence to analyze insect invasions, finding that global flows of invasive plants are more tightly linked to insect invasions than are other factors, such as global trade or propagule pressure. "Macroecological analyses support the hypothesis that nonnative plant richness is a major determinant of nonnative insect richness," they say. These findings have important implications for biosecurity and invasive species management, fields in which future success will depend on appropriately addressing the complex dynamics driving biological invasions in our increasingly interconnected world. While current practices focus heavily on preventing new insect arrivals, the authors argue that more attention should be paid to limiting the spread of nonnative plants, say the authors. Adding, "Controlling the spread of undesired nonnative plant species would not only be beneficial because it mitigates the impacts of the plant species themselves, it would also reduce spillover of associated nonnative insects to native plant species."

Accurately weighing costs and benefits of different methods for controlling invasive species -- Invasive insect species bring a host of health, social, ecological and economic consequences, including crop damage, food insecurity, biodiversity loss, ecosystem disruption, human disease transmission and rising allergy rates. International trade, climate change, tourism and agricultural practices are accelerating the spread of invasive species. Our planet is under siege. The annual economic cost of damage caused by invasive insects and pest control is estimated at $165 billion in recent years. "The situation is urgent," said Jacques Brodeur, a professor in the Department of Biological Sciences at Université de Montréal and a researcher at the Institut de recherche en biologie végétale. Brodeur and his co-authors make a strong case for action in a recent article in One Earth, in which they discuss the potential risks and benefits of fighting invasive pests. They argue that there is a critical need for a science-based, interdisciplinary approach to accurately weigh the costs and benefits of different methods of controlling invasive species. But most importantly, biological control needs some serious rebranding. Biological pest control uses a species' natural enemies (predators, parasites, pathogens, viruses, bacteria, etc.) to prevent it from spreading and taking over a non-native environment. Brodeur is an expert on biological control and believes it is our most effective and sustainable means of containing insect invasions. Unfortunately, 19th century proponents of biological control didn't fully understand the underlying mechanisms and ended up introducing species that also became invasive. Their failings sparked an international outcry against what came to be seen as a counterproductive practice. "Today, biological control is a predictive science," Brodeur said. "It is governed by legislation and we know more about biological agents. Even so, many countries are still reluctant to use it. We need to burnish the image of biological pest control and show people that, when it's done right, it's a very attractive solution and our most powerful tool in the long run." There are also other ways of managing insect invasions. Pesticides are the most obvious, but they entail a never-ending cycle of application. Advances in molecular biology and genomics are yielding increasing numbers of new approaches that rely on genetic engineering. Another strategy is not intervening. However, the risks, benefits, and economic impact of all these methods need further study. We simply don't have enough information yet. Brodeur is pushing for a science-based approach to quantifiably assess the effects of action and inaction, and to provide government agencies with reliable data on pest control. "We'll need to enlist the help of biologists, ecologists and environmental scientists, as well as specialists in fields such as agronomy, public health, sociology and economics," he said. "It will take a multidisciplinary approach to build solid, evidence-based arguments that we can use to raise awareness within the government."

Bumblebee queens choose to hibernate in pesticide-contaminated soil, scientists discover - An alarming discovery from University of Guelph researchers raises concerns for bumblebee health, survival and reproduction. U of G environmental sciences researchers Drs. Nigel Raine and Sabrina Rondeau have found that bumblebee queens are more likely to hibernate in soil contaminated with pesticides than in clean soil—for reasons they still don't quite understand. "Some bee behaviors are not well understood, and we wanted to see if these bumblebee queens exhibited avoidance behavior that might reduce their risk of harm from pesticide exposure in the field," Raine says. "But these results were alarming." The team conducted field experiments in which newly emerged queens of the common eastern bumblebee (Bombus impatiens) were left to fly freely in outdoor enclosures, mate and then choose a site in which to hibernate for the winter. The choice was between clean soil or soil contaminated with one of five common pesticides, including insecticides and fungicides, across different concentrations. The School of Environmental Sciences researchers then carefully searched through the soils for hibernating bumblebee queens. They found queens avoided the pesticide-free soil and, in fact, were about twice as likely to be drawn to the pesticide-contaminated soil. Most bees in the study survived, but other consequences for the colony are highlighted in the study, published in Science of the Total Environment.The findings surprised both Raine and Rondeau, who is now a post-doctoral researcher at the University of Ottawa. The study was part of Rondeau's Ph.D. research at U of G's Ontario Agricultural College and was recently featured in the New York Times."This raises serious concerns for bumblebee health," says Raine, "especially as this group of important insect pollinators already face many challenges." Bumblebee queens typically hibernate underground during winter before emerging in spring to start new colonies. Researchers wanted to investigate how bees respond to contaminants at this key but vulnerable life stage. Previous studies showed that pesticides on crops can either attract or repel bees, depending on the type, the environmental situation and the concentration used. Raine and Rondeau initially speculated that bumblebee queens would simply choose to avoid pesticide residues in soil. "We were not expecting this result," Rondeau says. "It suggests that queens could actually prefer these contaminated soils, though we don't yet fully understand why." One possible explanation is that pesticides altered the soil properties and made it more appealing to the queens. For example, the fungicides used in the study could have killed soil fungi and nematodes, and queens might avoid soils with fungi because they can be harmful during hibernation. Another possibility is that the queens could have developed an "acquired taste" for pesticides, as researchers put it, due to prior exposure in their environment. They might also be looking for something new, as novelty-seeking behavior is common for bees and often leads the colony to discover new resources. More research is needed to fully understand the mechanisms behind this unexpected queen behavior. But the findings suggest the need to reconsider how pesticides are used and managed in agricultural settings.

Oriental hornets do not get sick or die when consuming very large amounts of alcohol, study shows A team of behavioral ecologists, zoologists and crop protection specialists from Tel Aviv University reports that Oriental hornets have the highest-known tolerance to alcohol in the animal kingdom. In their study published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the group fed ethanol solutions to hornets. Prior research has shown that many plants produce fruits or nectar that ferment naturally as they rot, which results in the production of ethanol. Fermented foods are a source of both nutrients and energy for many animals due to their high caloric content, and most animals that consume ethanol in concentrations higher than 4% suffer adverse effects, such as difficulties moving or flying normally. In this new study, the team in Israel noticed the Oriental hornets did not seem to be troubled by their diet heavy in rotten fruit. To find out more about the tolerance of ethanol consumption by Oriental hornets, the group collected multiple samples and brought them back to their lab for testing. The team gave the hornets solutions of sucrose with added ethanol. They began by giving them low doses and found that even at levels of 20%, the hornets showed no adverse effects. They kept upping the dose to 80%. At that level, the hornets behaved as if slightly tipsy for just a few moments, then sobered up and resumed their normal behavior. The research team notes that any other creature would have been killed by such high amounts of alcohol. Three adult Oriental hornet workers (V. orientalis) feeding on a ripe fig, a potential source of naturally occurring ethanol. Credit: Eran Levin Taking a closer look, the researchers found that the hornets have multiple copies of the alcohol dehydrogenase gene, which is involved in breaking down alcohol. This most likely explains the hornet's high tolerance for alcohol. They suggest extra copies of the gene likely evolved due to the mutualistic relationship the hornets have with fermenting brewer's yeast—prior research has shown they reside and even reproduce inside the hornets' intestines, a relationship that also helps the yeast move between hornets.

Molecular study of newly discovered tardigrade species helps explain ability to withstand high doses of radiation --A team of biologists affiliated with several institutions in China has learned more about the means by which tardigrades are able to withstand high doses of radiation. In their study, published in the journal Science, the group focused on a newly found species of the creature. Tardigrades are famous for their ability to survive in environments that other creatures cannot—they survive on the outside surface of the International Space Station, for example. In this new effort, the research team wanted to learn more about these remarkable abilities. The work began six years ago, after the researchers discovered a new species of tardigrade in Henan Province. They named it Hypsibius henanensis and sequenced its genome. They found it had 14,701 genes, of which approximately 30% were unique to tardigrades. They then turned their attention to the effects of bombarding the creature's DNA with gamma rays—from low to very high doses.The researchers discovered that 2,801 of the genes in the tardigrade's DNA were involved in DNA repair. More specifically, they found three key factors that helped it survive exposure to radiation. The first was its ability to repair its DNA once damaged. DNA is damaged by radiation, such as gamma rays, as they knock electrons loose from their constituent atoms, ionizing them. Ionization can lead to helix breakage and sometimes the development of cancerous tumors. H. henanensis, the researchers found, is able to quickly repair such damage using a protein made only by tardigrades called TRID1.The second factor involved a gene that was switched on during exposure to radiation, resulting in the generation of two proteins that are known to be important for mitochondrial synthesis of ATP—in tardigrades, it appears they also help with DNA repair.The third factor was H. henanensis's ability to minimize damage from radiation by producing a large number of proteins that serve as effective antioxidants—they clear out free radicals before they can cause problems in the creature's cells.

Nitrogen-fixing plant diversity declines with over-fertilization, study finds - Anthropogenic nitrogen deposition and climate change can reduce the competitive advantage of nitrogen-fixing plants, leading to reduced diversity of these plants in a community. Surprisingly, changes in temperature and aridity do not contribute to the observed temporal changes in the diversity of nitrogen-fixing plants, as an international research team including Dr. Thilo Heinken from the University of Potsdam found out. The results of the study have now been published in Science Advances.Biological nitrogen fixation is a fundamental ecosystem service, especially in nutrient-poor soils. As humans introduce additional nitrogen to agricultural land through fertilization, and industry as well as transport contribute to nationwide nitrogen deposition, nitrogen-fixing plants may lose their competitive advantage in the future. These plants include clover, lupins, peas and vetches, as well as alder trees."In our study, we investigated temporal trends in the diversity of these plants and their relationship to anthropogenic nitrogen deposition, taking into account changes in temperature and aridity," explains Dr. Thilo Heinken, botanist at the Institute of Biochemistry and Biology.The international team analyzed data sets from the forestREplot database on the species richness and phylogenetic diversity of forest-floor vegetation in temperate forests in Europe and the U.S. Baseline surveys for the selected plots were conducted between 1940 and 1999; the last resurveys were conducted between 1995 and 2019. They found that the abundance of nitrogen-fixing plants decreases with increasing nitrogen input, regardless of temperature changes and increasing aridity. The forest REplot database is an archive of information from sample plots of the herb layer in forests distributed across the temperate zones of Europe and North America. Global trends can be derived from this. Data on Brandenburg's forests is also fed to this database by Heinken. "If we understand past changes in the diversity of nitrogen-fixing plants, we can better predict future responses to human nitrogen deposition and climate change," he says.

Billionaires Are Not Going to Save Us -It was Shakespeare who wrote, “One touch of nature makes the whole world kin.” And yet, in the polarized news cycle since Hurricane Helene ravaged the southeastern United States and the hurricanes have kept coming, we’ve heard a tale not of shared humanity, but of ruin, discord, and political polarization. Hundreds are dead from that storm — the deadliest to hit the mainland U.S. since Hurricane Katrina in 2005 — hundreds more are missing, and hundreds of thousands of residences are still without power or clean water. And in addition to the staggering human loss and physical damage, a hurricane of misinformation and division has continued to pummel the region.There’s Elon Musk’s politicized deployment of Starlink satellite internet access, which he’s used to credit Donald Trump less than one month before the November election, while undermining the legitimacy of federal recovery efforts. Indeed, listen to Fox News or read Musk’s claims on his social media platform X, and there’s no mention of the pre-arrangements the federal government made with Starlink through the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to provide internet access — for local governments and the Eastern Band of the Cherokee Nation.Then, of course, there’s Donald Trump falsely claiming that the federal government’s response to Helene was delayed and insufficient because the funds that might have gone to hurricane victims are instead being used to house undocumented immigrants. (FEMA does spend some money on migrant housing, but through an entirely different program.) With this outrageous fearmongering, he’s fanning the flames of anti-immigrant hate that are already raging during this election season. His racist and xenophobic rhetoric has also forced FEMA and the White House to spend precious time and energy trying to counter his lies, rather than focusing their full attention on saving lives and rebuilding broken communities. And don’t forget Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, who insisted that the government actually controls the weather. This ludicrous claim is taken from conspiracy theorist Alex Jones (notorious for arguing that the Sandy Hook school shooting was a hoax), who suggested that the government directed Helene towards North Carolina “to force people out of the region so it could mine the state’s large reserves of lithium, a key component in the batteries that power electric vehicles and store renewable energy.”Such hateful lies and conspiracy theories (and there are more like them!) conveniently ignore the fact that conservative Republican lawmakers passed a funding bill that failed to allocate additional money to FEMA just days before Helene hit, even though the country was entering peak hurricane season in a time when the weather is growing ever more extreme. And it’s no surprise that these lawmakers are backed by billionaires who own some of the very companies most responsible for climate change. Through their scare tactics and anti-government misdirection, they have also provided rhetorical cover for the Christian nationalists and other extremists who were some of the first responders after the hurricane. The Southern Poverty Law Center confirms reports I’ve heard from local sources that “far-right militias and white supremacist organizations are moving into the region to provide assistance — and, if past disasters are any indication, drum up sympathy for their cause.”Hurricane Helene (like Hurricane Milton that followed it in a devastating fashion) should be a brutal reminder that none of us are truly safe from the worsening effects of the climate crisis. For years, local officials and real estate developers marketed Asheville, North Carolina, as a “climate haven.” With its temperate weather and mountain vistas 300 miles from the ocean, many falsely believed the area would be shielded from storms like Helene. No such luck. Meanwhile, the last few weeks have also served as a stark reminder that the climate devastation increasingly coming for all of us is experienced most intensely by poor and low-income communities. Just look at the (lack of) full-scale evacuation plans for Hurricane Milton in Florida and it’s clear that those who cannot afford a $2,400 flight or have access to a car and enough gas money to wait out the massive traffic jams of those fleeing such storms may just be out of luck.In western North Carolina, as rising waters from Helene consumed entire communities, many had nowhere to evacuate. Poor people living in rural areas, often with pre-existing health conditions and without health insurance, skipped hospital visits in the chaotic days immediately after the storm. Thankfully, some hospitals opened up beds for patients whose homes were destroyed. But those who don’t have flood insurance — and the residents of the areas hit hardest by Helene were the least likely to have such insurance — and can’t afford to rebuild may soon find themselves joining the many others who have been displaced and made homeless by the storm. Truly, as the experiences of Hurricane Helene — and now Hurricane Milton, Nadine, and potentially others, too — have proven, the economic disparities that are laid bare and intensified by the climate crisis are absent from the supposed “economic populism” of climate-change deniers like Donald Trump and J.D. Vance. In fact, it was Vance who called the study and analysis of climate change “weird science” during the vice-presidential debate. He has also praised the lead author of the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025, which proposes gutting FEMA, making it harder for states to get disaster relief, and blocking federal agencies from fighting climate change (not to mention 400 pages of other suggested cuts to this country’s social safety net). Storms like Hurricane Helene are a force amplifier of deep societal inequities that will worsen if Trump and Vance are elected in November, but in truth the issue runs deeper than just one political party. Indeed, over the last few years, extreme weather events, pandemics, and other public emergencies have exposed a deep societal disease that has only grown worse after decades of neoliberal policies. Worsening poverty and widening economic inequality should be considered pre-existing conditions that are only magnified during moments of crisis. Manoochehr Shirzaei, an associate professor of geophysics at Virginia Tech, recently put it this way: “The tragic flood event in the southeast U.S. is a poignant example of the confluence of multiple factors, including development in floodplains, inadequate infrastructure maintenance and management, and the specter of climate change, whose compounding effect can amplify the disaster.”

Heavy rains cause severe flooding in Monterrey, leaving three dead, Mexico - A cold front brought heavy rains to Monterrey, Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday, October 16 and 17, 2024, leading to severe floods and 3 deaths. Heavy rains triggered by a cold front struck Monterrey from Wednesday night through Thursday, leading to severe floods in the region. The downpours started around 18:00 local time (LT) and intensified at around 21:00 LT, dropping around 127 mm (5 inches) of rain over the Monterrey metropolitan area. At least three people were reported dead, 121 homes were flooded, and 164 cars were stranded due to the flooding. A family was rescued from a vehicle trapped in floodwaters in the Del Maestro neighborhood. Additionally, 27 fallen trees, 24 short circuits, and 16 fallen electric cables were also reported. According to Mayor Hector Garcia, a dam overflowed in the Nuevo Mexico neighborhood of Guadalupe Municipality, sweeping away 13 vehicles. The rainfall continued through Thursday and began intensifying after 18:00 LT in the metropolitan area. Floodgates of the La Boca dam were opened as the National Water Commission warned the communities of Monte Prieto and La Boca about the increased level of discharge. The Allende highway was blocked by floodwaters after the San Juan River overflowed, making it impossible to cross over to the San Bartolo community.

Roswell floods claim 2 lives after record rainfalls, New Mexico - Flash floods struck Roswell, New Mexico on Saturday, October 19, 2024, claiming two lives, after approximately 147 mm (5.78 inches) of rain fell over the region setting a new record for the region. Flights were canceled at the Roswell Air Center and the New Mexico National Guard reported conducting nearly 300 rescues. At least two people have been reported dead, 38 injured, and nearly 300 have been rescued from the floods that struck Roswell (population 46 500) on Saturday night. Information on the victims or the circumstances of their deaths was not clear at the time of press. Ad ends in 13 The Spring River Channel overflowed after record rainfall, leading to extreme flooding in downtown Roswell. Approximately 147 mm (5.78 inches) of rain fell over the region on Saturday alone, setting a new all-time daily record for the region, surpassing the previous record of 143.5 mm (5.65 inches) set on November 1, 1901. Several homes were inundated and streets were submerged by the flood waters. The New Mexico National Guard reported 290 rescues, 38 of whom were sent to local hospitals afterward. They deployed 57 personnel in the Roswell area to conduct search and rescue operations, which will continue as long as necessary. The Guard’s Community Emergency Response Team, or CERT, performed at least one swift water rope save overnight on Sunday.

Officials: 3 dead, 3 in critical condition in Simpson County bridge collapse - Three people have died and three are in critical condition after a bridge collapsed in Simpson County. The injuries and deaths were confirmed by Simpson County Sheriff Paul Mullins. According to the Mississippi Department of Transportation, a bridge over the Strong River on Highway 149 collapsed Wednesday afternoon during what they called “a work site accident.” The bridge has been closed to traffic since September 18 as part of a bridge replacement project. MDOT says that T.L. Wallace, the contractor for the project, was in the process of demolishing the bridge. Sheriff Mullins received a call Wednesday afternoon around 2:51 p.m. stating a bridge had collapsed right at the D’Lo water park. Once he got there, workers had stated th+ey had a bridge failure. He found a piece of equipment that had failed, along with the bridge down at the river. One of the three victims was still stuck in the rubble under debris, but has since been pulled out as of 8:45 p.m. The sheriff also confirmed that all were employees at T.L. Wallace Construction. Mississippi Governor, Tate Reeves, took to the social media site X Wednesday night to offer his condolences and prayers.

Hurricane Oscar forms, Tropical Storm Nadine makes landfall Saturday (WVUE) - Two more named storms formed Saturday morning (Oct. 19). The first was Tropical Storm Nadine, forming near Belize in the Caribbean overnight. Nadine made landfall in Belize early Saturday afternoon with sustained winds of 50 mph and is forecast to become post-tropical by Sunday. The second system is Oscar, which formed as a tropical storm Saturday morning and strengthened into a hurricane by early afternoon, with sustained winds of 80 mph. It developed near Turks and Caicos and is forecast to continue west-southwestward. Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Southeastern Bahamas, and the Cuban Provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cuba provences of Camaguey, Holguin and Las Tunas. Oscar will not have a path to the Gulf of Mexico. It will be battling strong wind shear, which could dissipate the storm, but an upper-level low-pressure system may swing by and pull the storm northward over the open Atlantic by midweek. Hurricane season lasts until late November, but in October, it becomes harder to bring tropical systems into the Gulf of Mexico due to strong cold fronts coming down from the north.

Floods and landslides triggered by Tropical Storm “Nadine” claim 3 lives, damage 1 290 homes in Mexico - Floods and landslides triggered by Tropical Storm “Nadine” have claimed at least three lives in Mexico as of October 22, 2024. Severe floods have affected over 1 200 homes in 20 municipalities of the state of Chiapas which has been the worst hit by the storm. Officials wading through flooded streets to asses damages in the Nuevo San Carlos ejido. Tropical Storm “Nadine” brought heavy rains to Mexico after making landfall in Belize on October 19, resulting in severe floods and landslides that have claimed three lives so far. In the municipality of Tila, two people lost their lives after being buried by a landslide in the town of Carrizal, according to local civil protection authorities. Another fatality occurred in the district of San Juan Chamula, where floodwaters swept away a vehicle, leading to the death of one person. The state of Chiapas has been severely affected, with at least 20 municipalities experiencing extensive damage. The state’s civil protection services reported that approximately 1 288 homes have been seriously impacted by the torrential downpours and subsequent flooding. Some regions saw streets submerged in up to 50 cm (19.7 inches) of floodwaters making them impassable. Several families residing near the Rayón, Tumbalá, Ocosingo, Tila, and Chilón rivers were evacuated after the rivers overflowed their banks. In the municipality of Cintalpa, at least 21 homes were affected by the flooding, with seven collapsing. Local civil protection services indicated that homes were inundated with 30 – 50 cm (11.8 – 19.7 inches) of water, resulting in significant damage. Authorities have been distributing food and other essential supplies to those displaced by the disaster. Flooding and landslides have also disrupted infrastructure, submerging fifteen sections of highways and fourteen rural roads. Civil protection services confirmed the formation of a sinkhole on the Palenque-Chancalá highway in La Cascada Ejido. The sinkhole, measuring 5.9 m (19.4 feet) in length and 5.3 m (17.4 feet) in width, forced the closure of a section of the highway. Meanwhile, authorities removed a fallen tree blocking the road leading to the Mitzit resort, allowing traffic to flow freely. Tropical Storm “Nadine” made landfall in Belize City at 16:00 UTC (10:00 local time) on Saturday, October 19, with maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h (60 mph). Nadine is the 14th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season and the first tropical cyclone to make landfall in Belize since Category 1 Hurricane “Lisa” in 2022. After moving over Belize, the center of Nadine entered northern Guatemala and moved over southern Mexico through Sunday, October 20.

Severe coastal flooding expected as Hurricane “Oscar” approaches Turks and Caicos - Tropical Storm “Oscar” formed at 15:00 UTC on October 19, 2024, as the 15th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season and intensified into a hurricane just 3 hours later. Oscar is expected to produce a dangerous storm surge on the Turks and Caicos Islands beginning this evening (local time). Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the southeastern Bahamas, Turks and Caicos Islands, and eastern Cuba during the next day or so. Satellite image of Hurricane "Oscar" at 19:30 UTC on October 19, 2024. Oscar is anticipated to bring hazardous weather conditions, including hurricane-force winds, to parts of the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and eastern Cuba within the next 24 hours. In light of the impending threat, a Hurricane Warning has been issued for these areas and residents were advised to take immediate precautions as the storm intensifies. A significant concern is the potential for a dangerous storm surge, particularly in the Turks and Caicos Islands. The surge is expected to begin this evening (local time), posing a risk of coastal flooding and damage to low-lying areas. Authorities are urging residents in vulnerable regions to remain vigilant and prepare for possible evacuations. In addition to the strong winds and storm surge, locally heavy rainfall is expected across the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas later today and into the night. These heavy rains could lead to flash flooding in some areas. The storm’s impact is projected to extend to eastern Cuba by Sunday, with heavy rain expected to spread across the region, increasing the risk of localized flooding there as well. At 18:00 UTC on October 19, the center of Hurricane “Oscar” was located 260 km (165 miles) east-southeast of the Southeastern Bahamas and 755 km (470 miles) east of Camagüey, Cuba. The system had maximum sustained winds of 130 km/h (80 mph) and a minimum central pressure of 989 hPa. Oscar is moving toward the west at approximately 19 km/h (12 mph), with this motion expected to gradually slow down and turn to the west-southwest over the next couple of days. Some additional strengthening is possible today before gradual weakening begins early next week. Oscar is a small hurricane, with hurricane-force winds extending outward up to 10 km (5 miles) from the center and tropical storm-force winds extending outward up to 75 km (45 miles).

Oscar makes landfall in Guantanamo as a Category 1 hurricane, Cuba - Category 1 Hurricane “Oscar” made landfall on the northern coast of eastern Cuba at around 21:50 UTC on Sunday, October 20, 2024. Tropical storm conditions are forecast to persist in eastern Cuba on Monday and are expected to affect the southeastern Bahamas tonight (LT) and Tuesday. Satellite image of Hurricane "Oscar" at 21:30 UTC on October 20, 2024.

• Through midweek, heavy rainfall from Oscar will lead to areas of significant, life-threatening flash flooding along with mudslides across portions of eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra.
• Localized flash flooding will be possible across the southeastern Bahamas.
• Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue today across portions of eastern Cuba.
• Tropical storm conditions are also expected in portions of the southeastern Bahamas tonight and Tuesday.

Hurricane “Oscar” made landfall in the Cuban province of Guantánamo at around 21:50 UTC on Sunday, October 20. Maximum sustained winds at the time of landfall were recorded at 129 km/h (80 mph), with a minimum central pressure of 986 hPa. Oscar weakened into a tropical storm after landfall, with wind speeds dropping to 97 km/h (60 mph). As of 06:00 UTC on Monday, October 21, the storm was located around 32 km (20 miles) east of Guantánamo, moving west-southwest at 8 km/h (5 mph) with a minimum central pressure of 996 hPa. The slow-moving storm is producing heavy rain and life-threatening flash floods across eastern Cuba. Rainfall of 150 – 300 mm (6 – 12 inches) is expected, with isolated amounts of up to 450 mm (18 inches), through Wednesday morning, October 23. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the provinces of Las Tunas, Holguín, and Guantánamo up to Punta Maisí. The southern coast of Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas are also under warning. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the central Bahamas and the north coast of Camagüey province in Cuba.

Cuba enacts emergency measures after largest power plant goes offline, leaving 10 million in the dark - The WatchersIn response to catastrophic blackouts lasting more than 12 hours per day for millions, Cuba’s government announced emergency measures, including the closure of non-essential workplaces on October 17, 2024. Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz stressed fuel shortages, poor infrastructure, and increased demand, all exacerbated by aftermath of Hurricane “Milton.” Cuba’s national electrical grid failed on Friday morning after the Antonio Guiteras power plant, the largest and most efficient on the island, went offline, leaving around 10 million people without electricity. In a desperate attempt to deal with an escalating electrical crisis affecting the entire island country, Prime Minister Marrero declared emergency measures that would be implemented by closing all non-essential workplaces in the vast state sector. This decision for emergency measures comes as millions of residents have been experiencing blackouts lasting more than 12 hours a day, with many places outside the capital, Havana, receiving less than six hours of energy daily.

Millions in Cuba remain without power as Hurricane Oscar makes landfall - Millions remained without power in Cuba for a third consecutive day as slow progress is made in restoring electricity following multiple major grid failures. Power is expected to be restored to everyone on the island by Tuesday, the minister of energy and mines, Vicente de la O Levi, told reporters at a news conference Sunday. The announcement, however, came before the Energy and Mines Ministry reported a fourth grid failure.Levi warned that even with the power restored, “we will continue to have blackouts because we continue with the lack of fuel.” He said the government is “in conversations” to acquire fuel.Hurricane Oscar, a Category 1 storm, made landfall on eastern Cuba’s northern coast Sunday evening with sustained winds of 80 mph. The storm could put an end to the power recovery efforts if it affects the plants in its path.Levi blamed the U.S.′ “brutal blockade” for the financial difficulties in acquiring fuel and spare parts for Cuba’s power plants, as well as for the current electric power crisis. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel and other top leaders have also blamed the U.S. embargo on Cuba.Cuba’s electric grid collapsed Friday morning, plunging the entire population of 10 million into darkness. As technicians slowly made progress with repairs, a second grid collapse occurred early Saturday, followed by another one late Saturday, as well as the collapse Sunday. Colombia, Mexico, Venezuela and Russia have offered help, according to Levi, and Cuba remains in communication with their governments.“The Cuban government has not requested assistance at this time,” a U.S. State Department spokesperson told NBC News in an emailed statement.“The Unites States obviously is not to blame for today’s blackout on the island, or the overall energy situation in Cuba,” the statement said.In the statement, the spokesperson blamed Cuba’s economic conditions on “long-term mismanagement of its economic policy and resources,” adding that they have “increased hardships” on the Cuban population.The spokesperson added that the U.S. “is closely monitoring today’s blackout on the island, and we are concerned about the potential humanitarian impacts on the Cuban people.” Some protests, or “cacerolazos,” broke out in different parts of the island Saturday night, with people demonstrating by banging on pots. Levi said the protests were “isolated incidences” and called them “incorrect” and “indecent.” Protesting is rare and not usually tolerated in Cuba. “The people and culture of Cuba are not accustomed to that,” he said about the protests.

Hurricane Kristy is upgraded to Category 3 as experts reveal chance of US being hit - Hurricane Kristy has been upgraded to a Category 3 as it strengthens in the Pacific Ocean. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued the alert Wednesday, locating the storm about 600 miles southwest of Mexico's Baja California peninsula. Travelers in Mexico are urged to 'exercise caution and expect weather-related disruptions,' including heavy rainfall, strong wind and flooding. Kristy is moving at 20 miles per hour with sustained winds of 125 miles per hour. 'The impressive rapid intensification of Kristy has continued this morning,' the NHC shared. 'The gradually warming eye of the hurricane is surrounded by a ring of very deep convection, with infrared cloud tops as cold as -75 to -80 deg C.' While models show the storm is moving north toward the Californian coast, forecasts have predicted that it will likely veer west and travel deeper into the Pacific. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued the advisory Wednesday, locating the storm about 500 miles southwest of of Mexico 's Baja California peninsula + AccuWeather meteorologist Jesse Ferrell has suggested that the hurricane could reach a Category 4 by this evening. Sitting at a Category 3 puts Kristy on par with Hurricane Milton that hit Florida on October 9. Kristy became a tropical storm Monday off of Mexico’s southern Pacific coast before strengthening Tuesday into a hurricane. This beast of a storm is churning away in the Pacific, intensifying and gaining speed as it barrels over the open ocean. 'The hurricane is moving quickly westward while being steered by a strong subtropical ridge to its north,' NHC stated. 'This quick westward motion should continue for the next 24-36 hours. 'Then, an upper-level trough between the Hawaiian Islands and the west coast of the United States is forecast to erode the western extent of the ridge. 'As a result, Kristy is expected to move toward the west-northwest and northwest late this week and into the weekend.' Kristy is moving at 20 miles per hour with sustained winds of 125 miles per hour. 'The impressive rapid intensification of Kristy has continued this morning,' the NHC shared Kristy is moving at 20 miles per hour with sustained winds of 125 miles per hour. 'The impressive rapid intensification of Kristy has continued this morning,' the NHC shared Waves produced by the storm are set to hit areas of the Baja California peninsula’s west coast late this week, causing potentially fatal surf and rip current conditions, according to the NHC. Forecasters are predicting a steady to rapid strengthening on Wednesday and Thursday, followed by moderate weakening beginning Friday. Brad Reinhart, a senior hurricane specialist at the center, said: 'This one is moving due westward at a quick forward speed well out to sea, so there are no concerns about land.' Because Kristy is expected to continue moving over open waters, officials have not issued coastal watches or warnings.

Hurricane “Kristy” peaks at Category 5, threatens significant swells for Baja California this weekend - Kristy rapidly intensified into a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale and peaked at 21:00 UTC on Thursday, October 24, 2024, about 1 565 km (970 miles) SW of the southern tip of Baja California. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect and Kristy will dissipate without affecting land, but swells generated by the storm are expected to affect portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula on Friday and Saturday, October 25 and 26. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Tropical Cyclone “Kristy” formed from the remnants of Tropical Storm “Nadine” on October 21, 2024. Nadine made landfall in Belize on October 19, moved over northern Guatemala and then over southern Mexico, flooding over 1 200 homes in 20 municipalities of the state of Chiapas and leaving at least 3 people dead. Kristy continued intensifying after exiting into the Pacific Ocean and on Thursday, October 24, it rapidly intensified into a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Kristy’s peaked at 21:00 UTC on October 24, with maximum sustained winds of 260 km/h (160 mph) about 1 565 km (970 miles) SW of the southern tip of Baja California. The system continued moving west at a speed of 26 km/h (16 mph) with a minimum estimated central pressure of 926 hPa.

Category 4 Atmospheric River leaves 2 people dead in British Columbia, Canada - (2 videos) Category 4 Atmospheric River (AR) made landfall over British Columbia on Friday, dropping record rains and leaving two people dead in Coquitlam after the landslide hit the area. West Vancouver received 134.6 mm (5 inches) of rain on October 18, breaking the previous daily record of 34.8 mm (1.37 inches) set in 1970. According to Environment Canada numbers issued Sunday afternoon, October 20, Coquitlam had 256 mm (10.07 inches) of rain since Friday, Tofino received 218 mm (8.5 inches), while West Vancouver saw 190 mm (7.4 inches). On Vancouver Island, the weather office reported that the Kennedy Lake area north of Ucluelet had received a remarkable 320 mm (12.5 inches) of rain since Friday. New daily rainfall records have been recorded in Victoria, Squamish, Vancouver, West Vancouver, White Rock, Langley, Abbotsford, Chilliwack, Hope, and Nakusp in the Interior, and Agassiz and Pitt Meadows. A mudslide destroyed a home in Coquitlam (population 154 528), and authorities are looking for the homeowner and other people who were probably present in the house. According to a Coquitlam RCMP statement issued Sunday, officers responded to a report of a slide along Quarry Road on the east side of Pinecone Burke Provincial Park at around 12:30 LT on Saturday. “The mudslide washed away one home, which is believed to have been occupied. Efforts continue to locate the home and resident(s),” says Cpl. Alexa Hodgins. She added, “First responders are in contact with the residents and confirmed that they can shelter in place, but there is no updated timeline as to when the road will be cleared.” Hodgins says Quarry Road has been damaged and several residents are affected on the other side of the slide. RCMP reported the second fatality in Port Alberni on Monday saying one person is dead and the second presumed dead following weekend flooding near Bamfield, about 200 km (124 miles) by road northwest of Victoria. Meanwhile, the River Forecast Centre in British Columbia decreased flood advisories for the Coquitlam River and southern Vancouver Island waterways on Sunday. Lower-level flood watches are in effect for the southern half of Vancouver Island and the rest of the province’s south coast, which includes the Sunshine Coast, Metro Vancouver, the Sea to Sky corridor, and the Lower Fraser River and its tributaries.

Eastern Cape floods claim at least 10 lives, displace over 3 000, South Africa - (2 videos) Heavy rains affecting Eastern Cape since Monday, October 21, 2024, flooded entire neighborhoods, destroyed roads and bridges, and left at least 10 people dead, including 4 children, as of Wednesday, October 23. Severe flooding was reported in parts of Gqeberha and Kariega, with Nelson Mandela Bay the worst affected. Thousands of families there were forced to evacuate. Damage to infrastructure included the collapse of at least 30 houses and the destruction of 12 bridges, which has also affected school attendance in the region. Displaced residents have been temporarily accommodated in community halls and recently constructed houses. The floods have further exacerbated damage to infrastructure caused by floods that hit the same region earlier this year. Zolile Williams, Eastern Cape MEC for Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs, blamed Nelson Mandela Bay municipality for a poor drainage system, describing the events that unfolded over the past 3 days as a ‘man-made disaster that could have been avoided.’ The humanitarian aid organization Gift of Givers is also saying the main reason for this is drainage that’s not being cleared. “The drainage just couldn’t cope with the amount of water that came down,” the organization’s representative for Southern Cape said. Local residents are blaming the same reason for flooding in Gqeberha where they had to unblock the drainage system themselves. Local government has activated disaster management teams in the worst affected Nelson Mandela Bay metro.

Tropical Storm “Trami” (Kristine) claims 3 lives in Bicol, Philippines ahead of landfall - Tropical Storm “Trami” (Kristine) has brought heavy rains, causing landslides and intense flooding in several parts of Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao, forcing thousands to evacuate their homes. Sea travel has been suspended, stranding hundreds of passengers and vessels at seaports. Three people have been reported dead in the Bicol region due to the storm’s impact, according to the Police Regional Office on Wednesday, October 23. As of 06:00 local time (LT), one person remains missing, and six have been reported injured. Meanwhile, the Office of Civil Defense (OCD) reported seven missing persons, while the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) reported only three missing persons and one injury due to the storm. Around 382 000 individuals have been affected by Trami in Bicol, Western Visayas, Eastern Visayas, and Zamboanga Peninsula, according to the NDRRMC. Around 12 330 of the affected people are staying in evacuation centers, while another 364 are taking shelter in other places. Some 57 homes have been damaged, of which 8 were destroyed. 35 areas in the affected regions are experiencing power outages, with one area reporting issues with communication lines. 34 seaports in Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol, Central Visayas, and Eastern Visayas have suspended operations due to Trami, stranding 4 753 passengers, 703 rolling cargoes, 26 vessels, and 13 motorized boats. Schools and work schedules have been suspended in hundreds of areas in the affected regions. Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) No. 2 has been raised over 31 areas in Luzon as Tropical Storm “Kristine” maintained its strength and accelerated toward the Isabela area, state weather bureau PAGASA said on Wednesday. As of 09:00 UTC on Wednesday, the storm was located roughly 304 km (189 miles) northeast of Manila. It had a minimum central pressure of 985 hPa and maximum sustained winds of 90 km/h (56 mph) with gusts up to 126 km/h (79 mph). Warning graphic for Tropical Storm Trami (Kristine). The storm is expected to make landfall near Isabela in Cagayan Valley at around 15:00 UTC (23:00 LT) on Wednesday, according to the JTWC.

Over 1 million tons of rice destroyed by floods in Bangladesh - Floods in Bangladesh destroyed around 1.1 million tons of rice this year with August and October 2024 having had the worst impact. According to the country’s Ministry of Agriculture, this year’s floods have destroyed nearly 1.1 million tons of rice, prompting higher rice imports as food prices increase. “The government is moving quickly to import 500 000 tons of rice and is expected to allow private sector imports soon,” said an official from the food ministry. More than 200 000 tons of vegetables were severely damaged by the floods. The estimated total agricultural losses due to flooding in the country are 45 billion taka ($338 million). Bangladesh’s increased imports may boost exports from India, which reduced the duty on parboiled rice to 10 % in September. August and October were the months most affected by heavy monsoon rains, causing floods that claimed about 75 lives and impacted millions. The eastern and northern regions bore the brunt of the damage, with the most severe crop losses in the country. Bangladesh is the third-largest rice producer in the world, typically producing around 40 million tons of rice annually. However, natural disasters often disrupt production and increase the need for imports.

5 reported dead after widespread floods hit Bengaluru, India - Five people were reported dead in Bengaluru on Tuesday following rain-related incidents, as heavy downpours over the past three days have caused widespread flooding across the city. Among the fatalities, three were laborers who died when a building collapsed due to the intense rainfall. In another tragic incident, two children drowned in Kengeri Lake after becoming trapped in a marsh, according to local police. Additionally, 14 people were rescued from the collapsed building, while three others remain missing. In response to the severe flooding, schools have been closed for Wednesday, October 23. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a Yellow Warning for the day, cautioning residents about potentially hazardous weather conditions. The Yellow Warning is in effect from 13:30 local time (LT) on Tuesday until 08:30 LT on Wednesday, with adverse weather expected during this period. According to some reports, over 1 000 homes have been flooded and almost 200 trees have fallen due to continuous rainfall that has caused over 30 areas to be waterlogged in the city. Several areas in the city are experiencing power outages due to the floods. Five teams from the National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) and State Disaster Response Force (SDRF) have been deployed to assist with evacuations in the worst-hit areas, including Yelahanka, one of the most affected districts. Rescue efforts on Tuesday included the use of coracles to reach people stranded by floodwaters. Yelahanka recorded 157 mm (6 inches) of rain in just six hours, from 00:00 to 06:00 LT on Tuesday, leading to severe flooding in the region. Waist-deep water accumulated in the Kendriya Vihar area, adding to the challenges faced by residents. In several low-lying areas, homes were submerged, causing damage to vehicles, electronics, and household items. Many roads were heavily congested, including Ballari Road, which saw a 7 km (4 miles) traffic jam due to flooding, impacting access to Kempegowda International Airport. The embankment of a lake in Dashrahalli was breached by the heavy rainfall, leading to flooding in areas under the Mahadevapura five zones layout. To address the flooding, 20 pumps have been installed to remove water from apartments and other low-lying areas. The Doddabommasandra Lake also overflowed for the first time in 17 years after the area received nearly 190 mm (7.48 inches) of rainfall.

1.5 million evacuating ahead of Severe Cyclonic Storm “Dana” landfall in Odisha, India - Severe Cyclonic Storm “Dana” has intensified and is expected to make landfall over the north Odisha and West Bengal coasts between Puri and Sagar Island, close to Bhitarkanika and Dhamara, between 18:00 UTC on October 24 and 00:00 UTC on October 25, 2024, with a wind speed of 100 – 110 km/h (62 – 68 mph), gusting to 120 km/h (74.6 mph).A storm surge with a height of 1 – 2 m (3.3 – 6.6 feet) above the astronomical tide is highly likely to inundate low-lying areas in the Kendrapara, Bhadrak, and Balasore districts of Odisha, as well as the East Medinipur district of West Bengal. Additionally, a surge of 0.5 – 1 m (1.6 – 3.3 feet) above the astronomical tide is expected to inundate low-lying areas in the South 24-Parganas of West Bengal and Jagatsinghpur district in Odisha during the time of landfall. Nearly 1.5 million people living in Dana’s expected path in Odisha and West Bengal are evacuating their homes and moving to temporary relief camps equipped with food and water. This includes more than 1 million from 14 districts in Odisha and over 300 000 from coastal areas of West Bengal. Dana is already affecting the region causing traffic disruptions and school cancellations. More than 200 trains and all flights from and to Bhubaneswar and Kolkata city airports have been suspended from Thursday evening to Friday morning. Local authorities have already deployed thousands of relief workers to minimize damage. At 09:00 UTC on October 24, the center of Severe Cyclonic Storm “Dana” was located approximately 150 km (93 miles) southeast of Paradip (population 95 000), Odisha, 180 km (112 miles) south-southeast of Dhamara (population 4 000), Odisha, and 250 km (155 miles) south of Sagar Island (population 212 037), West Bengal.

Severe Cyclonic Storm “Dana” makes landfall in Odisha, India - Tropical Cyclone “Dana” swept across the Odisha coast early Friday, October 25, 2024, after making landfall near Bhitarkanika National Park and Dhamara, bringing intense winds of up to 120 km/h (75 mph) and rainfall across Odisha and West Bengal. Extremely heavy rainfall is forecast for several regions with Red, Yellow, and Orange warnings in effect for over 100 districts across Odisha, Jharkhand, and West Bengal. The storm crossed the north Odisha coast close to Habalikhati Nature Camp in Bhitarkanika and Dhamara from 01:30 LT to 03:30 LT, with maximum wind speeds of 110 – 120 km/h (68 – 75 mph) and gusts of up to 130 km/h (81 mph). As of 08:30 LT, the storm was centered approximately 30 km (18.6 miles) NE of Bhadrak and about 50 km (31 miles) NNW of Dhamara. Maximum sustained winds near the center registered at 90 – 100 km/h (56 – 62 mph), with gusts of up to 100 km/h (62 mph). Strong winds produced by Dana uprooted trees, damaged several homes across coastal Odisha and West Bengal, and left numerous roads impassable. Several regions across Odisha and Bengal were inundated by heavy rainfall from the storm, with IMD issuing Red, Yellow, and Orange alerts for over 100 districts across Odisha, West Bengal, and southern Jharkhand. According to the regional Met Office at Alipore, Kolkata, the city recorded approximately 100 mm (3.9 inches) of rainfall in the 24 hours leading up to 11:30 LT on Friday. Strong winds produced by Severe Cyclonic Storm “Dana” in Rajnagar, Kendrapara, Odisha at 13:30 IST on October 24, 2024. Satellite image of Severe Cyclonic Storm “Dana” at 12:45 UTC on October 24, 2024 with rainfall radar. Nearly 1.5 million people living in Dana’s path in Odisha and West Bengal have evacuated their homes and moved to temporary relief camps equipped with food and water — an impressive effort. This includes more than 1 million from 14 districts in Odisha and over 300 000 from coastal areas of West Bengal. 000 people were evacuated to shelters in West Bengal. According to Mohan Charan Majhi, Chief Minister of Odisha, the state successfully achieved its zero-casualty target for the cyclone.

Severe flooding in Baku leaves two dead, causes widespread damage, Azerbaijan - Severe flooding occurred in Baku and surrounding regions after heavy rains began on October 21, 2024 and continued for two days. The downpour overwhelmed drainage systems, flooding streets, homes, and public buildings, with significant disruptions in transportation. Two people were reported dead due to drowning, and property damage was widespread.

• The hardest-hit areas included districts like Sabunchu, Surakhani, Khazar, Binagadi and Yasamal.
• Emergency services were dispatched to rescue stranded individuals and mitigate the impact.
• Local authorities, including the Ministry of Emergency Situations, are coordinating recovery efforts and addressing infrastructural shortcomings that exacerbated the flooding.

Reports indicate at least two fatalities. The bodies of two individuals, one Elnur Fazil oglu Shirinov and another Koceri Farman oglu Abbasov, were retrieved from an inundated tunnel in the Subanchu district.As of 09:00 LT on October 22, the rainfall in Baku and the Absheron Peninsula reached 86 mm (3.3 inches) — representing 306% of the monthly norm. At least 31 people have been evacuated to safety by emergency forces, but the situation remains dire.Numerous individuals are still trapped in flooded homes, with reports indicating severe property damage. The rain damaged several public buildings, including the Azerbaijan State Art Academy and the Azerbaijan State Pedagogical University, where water leaked into classrooms. At Secondary School No. 123, a portion of the fence encircling the schoolyard collapsed. A two-story house on Abdulla Shaig Street in the Yasamal District fell, but emergency services rescued the residents. Local officials stated that this house had already been marked for demolition.

Global coral bleaching event biggest on record: US agency A global episode of heat-related coral bleaching has grown to the largest on record, US authorities said Friday, sparking worry for the health of key marine ecosystems. From the beginning of 2023 through October 10, 2024, "roughly 77 percent of the world's reef area has experienced bleaching-level heat stress," Derek Manzello of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) told AFP. Coral are marine invertebrates made up of individual animals called polyps which have a symbiotic relationship with the algae that live inside their tissue. When ocean water is too warm—such as during heat waves which have hit areas from Florida to Australia in the past year—coral expel their algae and turn white, an effect called "bleaching" that leaves them exposed to disease and at risk of dying off. The algae provide coral with food and nutrients, as well as their their captivating colors. Manzello said the ongoing bleaching event—the fourth since 1998—had surpassed the previous record of 65.7 percent in half the time, and "is still increasing in size." The consequences of coral bleaching are far-reaching, affecting not only the health of oceans but also the livelihoods of people, food security and local economies. Severe or prolonged heat stress leads to corals dying off, but there is hope for recovery if temperatures drop and other stressors such as overfishing and pollution are reduced. The last record had been set during the third global bleaching event, which lasted from 2014 to 2017, Manzello said, and followed previous events in 1998 and 2010. NOAA's heat-stress monitoring is based on satellite measurements from 1985 to the present day. It declared the latest mass bleaching event in April 2024. Pepe Clarke, with the environmental nonprofit WWF, said at the time that the "scale and severity of the mass coral bleaching is clear evidence of the harm climate change is having right now." Coral bleaching can occur following higher than normal ocean temperatures. Manzello on Friday said NOAA had confirmed reports of mass coral bleaching from 74 countries or territories since February 2023. "This includes locations in the northern and southern hemisphere of the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans," he told AFP by email. Australian authorities announced in March that the famed Great Barrier Reef was experiencing its fifth mass bleaching event in eight years. "Corals can recover if the marine heat stress is not too severe, or too prolonged," Manzello and colleague Jacqueline De La Cour told AFP in April. But there are "lasting physiological impacts for the survivors" and recovery "becomes increasingly challenging as bleaching events become more frequent and more severe," the pair added. The EU's Copernicus climate monitor reported last month that more than 20 percent of the world's oceans experienced at least one severe to extreme marine heat wave in 2023. The average annual maximum duration of such a heat event has doubled since 2008 from 20 to 40 days, its "Ocean State Report" said. More broadly, it also warned that the pace of ocean warming has almost doubled since 2005, as global temperatures rise because of human-caused climate change. The confirmation of the new record comes just ahead of a major UN biodiversity summit in Colombia, where an emergency special session has been called on the sidelines to discuss the mass bleaching event.

Broadcasting sounds of healthy coral reefs encourages coral larvae growth, study shows - Coral reefs worldwide are in trouble. These ecosystems support a billion people and more than a quarter of marine species. Still, many have been damaged by unsustainable fishing and tourism, coastal construction, nutrient runoff, and climate change. Now, researchers have shown that broadcasting the sounds of healthy reefs is a way to encourage larval corals to repopulate degraded sites and help revitalize them. A recent study done by researchers at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) showed that golfball coral larvae can be encouraged to settle when they hear the sounds of a vibrant, healthy reef. This is the second coral species to demonstrate a responsiveness to sound, indicating that this technique has the potential to be a widely applicable tool for reef restoration."Acoustic enrichment is continuing to show promise as a technique in the field and in the lab to enhance coral settlement rates," said Nadège Aoki, a doctoral candidate at WHOI and first author of the recently published paper in JASA Express Letters. "There is a very limited pool of species that have had any kind of acoustic work done with them so far, and this is the second one where the corals have responded to replayed sound and settled." During the larval stage of their life, corals drift or swim through the water looking for the right place to settle. To decide where they should attach to the seabed and mature into their stationary adult forms, coral larvae may rely on cues from chemicals, light, and—as Aoki and her colleagues demonstrated previously and in this study—sounds. Healthy coral reefs echo with a chorus of purrs and grunts from fish feeding, looking for mates, or defending their territories, underscored by the persistent crackling of snapping shrimp. Damaged or degraded reefs are much quieter, and it appears that some coral larvae can tell the difference.In July of 2022, Aoki and her colleagues collected larvae from Favia fragum—commonly known as golfball coral—in the U.S. Virgin Islands. They divided the larvae into cups and set them up in two quiet, sandy bays off the southeastern coast of St. John: Great Lameshur Bay and Grootpan Bay.At Great Lameshur, the researchers placed the cups of larvae one meter away from a solar-powered speaker playing sounds recorded at the nearby Tektite reef, which is considered relatively healthy and noisy. The researchers used the same setup in Grootpan Bay, but the speakers only played silence or sounds recorded in Grootpan.At each site, half of the larvae cups were in the water for 24 hours and half for 48 hours. After 24 hours, none of the larvae at the control site had settled to the bottom of their cups, but about 30% of the larvae hearing the sounds of a healthy reef had settled. After 48 hours, the settlement rates at both sites were much higher and roughly equivalent—around 73% at Great Lameshur and 85% at Grootpan. The sample sizes at both time intervals were too small for the results to be statistically significant. However, the researchers also conducted a similar experiment in fiberglass aquarium tanks. In the tanks, they checked for larval settlement after 24 and 72 hours of sound exposure. Combining these results, they found that golfball coral larvae settled at significantly higher rates when exposed to the sounds of a healthy reef during their first 36 hours. After that window, the larvae settled at basically the same rate, regardless of what they were hearing.

Dolphins sense military sonar at much lower levels than regulators predict, study shows - For the first time ever, a team including several UC Santa Cruz scientists have directly measured the behavioral responses of some of the most common marine mammals to military sonar. And the finding that surprised them most was that these animals were sensitive to the sounds at much lower levels than previously predicted.In a new study published on October 23 in the journal Royal Society Open Science, the international team sampled 34 dolphin groups, amounting to thousands of individuals, in experiments where simulated as well as operational military sonars were activated in carefully controlled conditions—or deliberately not played in experimental '"control'" conditions. The researchers then determined the types and likelihood of responses to known sonar exposures, which revealed unexpected behaviors."We see clear evidence of acoustic responses—fine-scale changes in movement including directed, sustained, strong avoidance, and changes in group configurations," said lead author Brandon Southall, a UC Santa Cruz research associate and senior scientist at Southall Environmental Associates (SEA)."While these behavioral changes occur and persist on variable time scales, they are surprising in that they collectively demonstrate responses at sound levels that are orders of magnitude lower than predicted in current regulatory impact assessments. These animals are clearly much more sensitive to noise exposure than we thought."

Fairbanks records its third wettest day in history as snow storm sweeps through Alaska, U.S. - Fairbanks experienced its third wettest day on record (since 1916) and set a new daily precipitation record, after recording 50.5 mm (1.99 inches) of rain on October 21. This surpassed the previous record of 7.9 mm (0.31 inches) set on October 21, 1935. Tanana recorded 20.1 mm (0.79 inches) of precipitation, breaking the previous daily record of 14 mm (0.55 inches) set in 1975. Bettles recorded 16.8 mm (0.66 inches), surpassing the prior record of 6.9 mm (0.27 inches) set in 1975. Nome broke its old daily precipitation record of 8.4 mm (0.33 inches), set in 1938, after recording 22.4 mm (0.88 inches) of rain on Monday. Notably, most of these locations received precipitation in the form of snow, but some coastal regions experienced only rain. The heavy precipitation was caused by an ongoing winter storm that brought significant snowfall to Fairbanks on Monday, October 21. Schools and businesses were closed after 10 – 25 cm (4 – 10 inches) of snow fell across the region, accompanied by freezing rain from Sunday night, October 20, into Monday morning. Snowfall and rain are expected to continue through Tuesday, October 22.

Early winter brings heavy snowfall to Turkey - (video) A sudden and severe snowfall impacted various regions of Turkey, especially high-altitude areas, beginning in mid-October 2024. On October 21, the General Directorate of Meteorology issued a Yellow Alert for seven provinces, Samsun, Ordu, Giresun, Trabzon, Rize, Gümüşhane, and Artvin, warning of heavy rain and snowfall. Emergency crews were deployed to assist stranded individuals and clear roads as the unexpected early winter conditions caught many residents off guard, with temperatures plunging well below seasonal norms. In provinces such as Kastamonu, snow accumulation has reached nearly 50 cm (20 inches) and in some locations up to 100 cm (40 inches), significantly disrupting daily activities and transportation infrastructure. On October 21, the General Directorate of Meteorology issued a Yellow Alert for seven northern and eastern Turkey provinces, warning of heavy rain and snowfall in the coming days. The affected provinces include Samsun, Ordu, Giresun, Trabzon, Rize, Gümüşhane, and Artvin. In these areas, meteorologists predicted rainfall up to 21 – 75 mm (0.8 – 3 inches) and heavy snowfall at higher altitudes. In particular, the high-altitude regions above 1 100-1 200 m (3 608 – 3 937 feet) in the eastern parts of these provinces are expected to experience heavy snowfall, with snow levels potentially accumulating. These severe weather conditions are expected to cause significant disruptions, including flooding, landslides, icing, and frost, potentially affecting transportation and daily life. Many places saw temperatures drop far below the seasonal normal, with Erzurum reaching -4 °C (25 °F). Snowfall was forecasted for the interior highlands of the Eastern Black Sea, while rain and showers will dominate in the lower regions of the Black Sea and Eastern Anatolia. Local governments acted immediately, dispatching snowplows and road-clearing teams. In Kastamonu, where snow depths reached 50 cm (20 inches), graders were deployed to clean key roads, while emergency management personnel helped stranded travelers in rural regions. Emergency crews were called in Giresun province to rescue individuals stuck in their cars owing to snow-covered roadways. In a similar situation, a shepherd became trapped on the snow-blanketed Beypınarı Plateau in the Düzköy district of Trabzon, prompting municipal teams to respond and provide assistance. The early blizzard has raised concerns about disruptions to transportation and daily activities, and weather warnings have been issued for potential hazards like icy roads, landslides, and power outages in impacted areas.

Northern China breaks mid-October records during an unusual cold spell - Northern China experienced an unusual cold wave in mid-October, with 21 weather stations shattering mid-month temperature records, including Beijing’s rare drop below freezing for the seventh time on record on Sunday, October 20, 2024. Najiao station in Beijing recorded a temperature of -4.1 °C (24.6 °F) on Sunday, breaking the previous mid-October low record of -3.9 °C (25.0 °F), which was set on October 20, 2007. The lowest temperature was recorded at Erenhot station in Inner Mongolia, where the temperature dropped to -12.1 °C (10.2 °F) on Sunday, surpassing the previous mid-October record of -11.5 °C (11.3 °F) set on October 18, 2010. Following this, Ulanqab station broke its previous record of -8.5 °C (16.7 °F), set on October 19, 1956, by recording a temperature of -11.6 °C (11.1 °F) on Sunday.

Wildfires are becoming faster and more furious in the U.S. West -Fast-growing flames have been responsible for the lion’s share of U.S. wildfire-related damage in recent years, despite being relatively rare occurrences, a new study has found. Nearly 90 percent of such destruction that took place between 2001 and 2020 occurred during “fast fires,” or those that thrust embers into the air ahead of encroaching flames, according to the study, published Wednesday in the journal Science. Fast fires, which can ignite homes before emergency responders are able to intervene, are becoming even faster across the U.S. West — jeopardizing millions of people, the study authors warned. “We hear a lot about megafires because of their size, but if we want to protect our homes and communities, we really need to appreciate and prepare for how fast fires move,” lead author Jennifer Balch, an associate professor of geography at the University of Colorado Boulder, said in a statement. “Speed matters more for keeping people safe,” added Balch, who is also a fellow at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, a joint initiative between the University of Colorado Boulder and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Balch and her colleagues — from multiple institutions across the U.S. West — focused on the December 2021 Marshall Fire, which destroyed more than a thousand homes in Boulder County. While the fire burned less than 6,100 acres in total, it grew quickly due to a combination of dry and windy conditions, the authors explained. Less than an hour after the fire was reported, it spread to a town 3 miles away — necessitating the evacuation of tens of thousands of people. In addition to focusing on the Marshall Fire, the researchers analyzed the growth patterns of fast fires in general by studying satellite data from more than 60,000 blazes that occurred in the contiguous U.S. between 2001 and 2020. Specifically, they applied a set of calculations to each satellite pixel that could identify and record the perimeter of all fires for every day they were active. “We harnessed Earth observations and remote sensing data to learn about fire growth across the nation in a systematic manner,” co-author Virginia Iglesias, interim director of the university’s Earth Lab, said in a statement. The scientists were then able to use their resultant fire perimeter maps to determine the growth rates of the fires as they progressed. Zooming in on fires that grew more than 4,003 acres in a single day, they found that the average maximum growth rate of these blazes underwent a 250 increase over the course of the research period. Meanwhile, the authors observed that fast fires were responsible for 88 percent of the home destruction caused by wildfires between 2001 and 2020, even though they represented only 2.7 percent of blazes on record. Incidents that ravaged more than 100 structures showed peak fire growth rates of more than 21,000 acres in a day, according to the study. Given these stark findings, the researchers warned government agencies and insurance companies that the wildfire risk models they are using may be insufficient — as such tools do not incorporate fire growth rate or speed. Going forward, they called for a change in these vital calculations and considerations. “Fires have gotten faster in the western U.S. in just a couple of decades,” Balch said. “We need to focus on what we can do to prepare communities: hardening homes and making robust evacuation plans.”

Future wildfires could trap tourists in Tahoe: Report -- Evacuations in certain parts of the Lake Tahoe Basin could take between 8.5 and 11 hours during fast-moving wildfires, area activists are warning. New simulations in three lakeside communities have revealed potentially fatal threats to residents, visitors and workers in flight — particularly during the coinciding peaks of tourism and wildfire seasons. Severe wildfires have become an increasing threat to the entire Lake Tahoe region, where fire-prone forests give way to vacation hotspots and crowded roadways. During the 2021 Caldor Fire, an infernal blaze burned nearly 222,000 acres over 69 days — destroying more than 1,000 structures and requiring more than 50,000 people to flee. The independent analysis, commissioned by the group TahoeCleanAir.org, focused on three areas: Douglas, West Shore and Eldorado. Approximately 23,000 people reside in the bounds of the last region, the El Dorado/South Lake Study Area, which includes several communities and parts of Lake Tahoe’s biggest city, South Lake. In addition to locals, there are more than 6,000 lodging rooms and camp sites in this region, as well as more than 2,300 short-term rentals, according to the report. Catering to this area’s hundreds of thousands of annual tourists are high concentrations of shopping, dining and recreation activities — served by limited roadway capacity, the authors warned. Depending on traffic conditions and road closures — which could create choke points — AI-powered simulations found that it could take between 8.5 and 11 hours to evacuate this summertime hotspot. The Douglas zone, on the Nevada side of the lake, has a local population that is about 5,406, as well as nearly 3,000 lodging rooms and more than 900 short-term rentals for seasonal vacationers, per the report. The researchers found that depending on traffic conditions, it could take 5 to 7.5 hours to evacuate this popular area. As for the West Shore, where researchers estimated a local population of about 4,346, the report found that fleeing this area could take from 4 to 8.5 hours. The region has only about 483 campsites and lodging rooms and 500 short-term rentals, but throngs of annual visitors still frequent the West Shore, according to the report. At the same time, the relatively isolated lakeshore communities located in this zone are accessible only by narrow neighborhood roads leading to two evacuation routes, the authors warned. “The carrying capacity in the Tahoe Basin is already beyond strained,” Doug Flaherty of TahoeCleanAir.org said in a statement. Flaherty, a former southern California Fire Combat Battalion Chief, emphasized a “need for Tahoe policy makers to provide better, more transparent public safety planning.” “Officials need to take a reality-based approach to land use planning decisions to help avoid issues experienced in other major wildfires,” he added.

Kanlaon volcano emits over 3 244 tonnes of sulfur dioxide amid ongoing increased unrest, Philippines - A series of brief ash plumes from Kanlaon volcano painted the sky gray on Saturday, October 19, 2024, with the clouds rising 500 m (1 640 feet) before drifting southwest and leaving traces of ash in the surrounding area.

• Kanlaon volcano is located in Negros Occidental and Negros Orientalis. The volcano has been under Alert Level 2 since June 3, 2024, following a significant eruption that sent ash plumes as high as 5 000 m (16 404 feet).
• Authorities are monitoring the volcano, advising residents to stay clear of the 4 km (2.5 miles) Permanent Danger Zone.

Kanlaon volcano emitted 3 244 tonnes of sulfur dioxide on October 19, as part of its ongoing increased unrest. The increase in sulfur dioxide emissions is linked to shallow magmatic movement beneath the volcano, raising concerns about potential explosive eruptions. Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) reported several brief episodes of gray ash emissions, which were observed at 06:41 local time, 07:01, and 08:01. These emissions lasted between two to six minutes and produced light-gray plumes that rose approximately 500 m (1 640 feet) above the crater before drifting southwest. Traces of ash were reported in Yubo and Ara-al, La Carlota City, and Sag-ang, La Castellana.

Significant volume of gas plume and volcanic material detected at Nyamulagira, DR Congo - The Toulouse VAAC is reporting the detection of a significant volume of gas and volcanic material over Nyamulagira Volcano in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, starting at approximately 11:15 UTC on October 25, 2024. Volcanic ash cloud was observed rising to 4 km (13 000 feet) above sea level at 13:00 UTC. As a result the Aviation Color Code was raised to Red. The volcano, located about 25 km (15 miles) north of Lake Kivu, has shown continuous lava effusion and strong seismic activity since early 2024. The Observatoire Volcanologique de Goma (OVG) and the Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) in Toulouse are closely monitoring the situation and issuing alerts to affected communities and aviation authorities. On October 25, the VAAC in Toulouse elevated the Aviation Color Code for Nyamulagira Volcano to Red, signifying severe potential risks to aviation in Central Africa due to an ongoing effusive eruption, accompanied by significant gas plume and volcanic products, currently confined to central crater. Between 13:00 UTC and 15:00 UTC on October 25, a volcanic ash cloud was observed rising to 4 km (13 000) a.s.l., promoting the Toulouse VAAC to raise the Aviation Color Code to Red. In recent months, Nyamulagira’s activity has been marked by continuous lava effusion, notably from the northern and western flanks. The Observatoire Volcanologique de Goma (OVG) reported in October that three active lava flows extended up to 7 km (4 miles) from the crater rim, with strong seismicity and a visible glow indicating robust volcanic activity. On October 23, 2024, the TROPOMI satellite detected an elevated sulfur dioxide (SO2) concentration of 4.29 Dobson Units (DU), located approximately 383.2 km (238 miles) from Nyamulagira.

Lake Erie fireball leaves glowing trail over Ohio, U.S. - (8 videos) A bright fireball streaked across the twilight sky over Lake Erie at 23:00 UTC (19:00 LT) on October 21, 2024. The event lasted several seconds before the object fragmented and disintegrated, leaving a glowing vapor trail near Ashtabula, Ohio. Fireball observed over Toronto on October 21, 2024 Among the three fireballs observed in the Great Lakes region on October 21, the Lake Erie fireball was especially remarkable for its widespread visibility and the bright trail it left in the Ohio sky. The American Meteor Society (AMS) received over 530 reports about a bright fireball seen over Lake Erie on October 21 from observers in Ontario, Michigan, New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, District of Columbia, Virginia, West Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky, and North Carolina. Observers reported a bright green flash with a yellow streak, slight fragmentation at the end, and a glowing vapor trail in the twilight sky. Several observers said the fireball looked like it hit the ground. The AMS received 10 videos of the event, which was also captured by cameras from the Southern Ontario Meteor Network, the NASA Fireball Network, and publicly accessible cameras as far away as Cincinnati. Analysis of the available data made by NASA’s Meteoroid Environment Office places the first visibility of the meteor at an altitude of 65 km (40 miles) above the Lake Erie shoreline near Willoughby, Ohio. The object moved north of east at a slow speed for meteors of 64 400 km/h (45 000 mph). It traveled nearly parallel to the Lake Erie shore for some 24 km (39 miles) before disintegrating 35 km (22 miles) above the water near Ashtabula, Ohio. This fireball was produced by a fragment of an asteroid weighing about 0.9 kg (2 pounds) and having a diameter of approximately 10 cm (4 inches), according to MEO. It is not associated with the currently active Orionid meteor shower. us fireball october 21 2024 2300 utc Lake Erie fireball heatmap and trajectory – on October 21, 2024. Image credit: AMS Video of Lake Erie fireball October 21, 2024 – October 21, 2024. Credit: AMS, Ryan Connor Video of Lake Erie fireball October 21, 2024 – October 21, 2024. Credit: AMS, Brad Hague With three fireballs recorded in the Great Lakes region on October 21, the Lake Erie fireball stands out due to its visibility and the glowing trail it left in the skies over Ohio.

Asteroid A11dc6D impacts Earth over eastern Pacific Ocean — 10th predicted Earth impactor on record - A small asteroid, currently designated A11dc6D, impacted Earth’s atmosphere over the eastern Pacific Ocean at 10:54 UTC on October 22, 2024. This marks the 10th recorded instance of an asteroid being detected prior to impacting Earth, and the third occurrence of such an event this year. Satellite image of asteroid A11dc6D impacting Earth over eastern Pacific Ocean on October 22, 2024 Satellite image of asteroid A11dc6D impacting Earth over eastern Pacific Ocean on October 22, 2024. Image credit: NOAA/GOES-West, RAMMB/CIRA, The Watchers According to data provided by the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), A11dc6D entered Earth’s atmosphere at a location far off the western coast of Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula, approximately 2 660 km (1 653 miles) from Los Angeles, California. The entry point was precisely at 30.0°N latitude and 136.0°W longitude. Asteroid A11dc6D was detected by the ATLAS (Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System) survey, U.S. just several hours before its impact. ATLAS is designed to detect smaller asteroids that might impact Earth with little warning, providing alerts just hours or days in advance of a potential impact. Preliminary measurements indicate the object was about 1 m (3.3 feet) in diameter, which is typical for small asteroids that tend to disintegrate in Earth’s atmosphere before reaching the surface. Upon entering Earth’s atmosphere, A11dc6D reached its peak brightness at an altitude of 38.2 km (23.7 miles). Entry velocity was estimated at approximately 12.6 km/s (7.8 miles/s). The impact of A11dc6D released an estimated 0.15 kilotons of energy, comparable to a small conventional explosion. The total radiated energy from the event was recorded at 4.5 x 10¹⁰ joules. While this is not enough energy to cause significant damage, impacts such as this prove the importance of tracking even small Near-Earth Objects (NEOs).

Major X3.3 solar flare erupts from returning Region 3842, source of strongest solar flare of Solar Cycle 25 - (video) A major, long-duration solar flare measuring X3.3 erupted from the Sun’s southeast limb at 03:57 UTC on October 24, 2024. The event started at 03:30 and ended at 04:28 UTC. The source is returning Region 3842. The eruption produced a fast full-halo coronal mass ejection (CME). While most of the ejecta is headed east, part of the CME is heading our way. This event was associated with a Type II Radio Emission with an estimated velocity of 610 km/s, suggesting a CME was produced, and a Type IV Radio Emission. Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the Sun and are typically associated with strong CMEs and solar radiation storms. In addition, a 10cm Radio Burst lasting 12 minutes and with a peak flux of 5 900 sfu was associated with this event. A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can indicate significant radio noise associated with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications. Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over SE Asia and Australia at the time of the flare. A fast full-halo CME was produced by this eruption. While the majority of the ejecta is moving eastward, a portion of the CME is expected to be Earth-directed. We will provide more information as it becomes available.

The U.N.’s Verdict on Climate Progress Over the Past Year: There Was None - The New York Times -One year after world leaders made a landmark promise to move away from fossil fuels, countries have essentially made no progress in cutting emissions and tackling global warming, according to aUnited Nations report issued on Thursday.Global greenhouse gas emissions soared to a record 57 gigatons last year and are not on track to decline much, if at all, this decade, the report found. Collectively, nations have been so slow to curtail their use of oil, gas and coal that it now looks unlikely that countries will be able to limit global warming to the levels they agreed to under the 2015 Paris climate agreement.“Another year passed without action means we’re worse off,” said Anne Olhoff, a climate policy expert based in Denmark and a co-author of the assessment, known as the Emissions Gap Report.The report comes a month before diplomats from around the world are scheduled to meet in Baku, Azerbaijan, for annual United Nations climate talks, where countries will discuss how they might step up efforts to address global warming. Lately, those efforts have faced huge obstacles Even though renewable energy sources like wind and solar are growing rapidly around the world, demand for electricity has been rising even faster, which means countries are still burning more fossil fuels each year. Geopolitical conflicts, from the U.S.-China rivalry to war in places like Ukraine and Gaza, have made international cooperation on climate change harder. And rich countries have failed to keep their financial promises to help poor countries shift away from oil, gas and coal. At last year’s climate talks in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, representatives from nearly every nation approved a pact that called for “transitioning away from fossil fuels” and accelerating climate action this decade. But the agreement was vague on how to do so and on which countries should do what, and so far there has been little follow-through.

Globe on Course for Warming of Up To 3.1C, Warns UN -A chronic lack of ambition and climate action by countries across the world over the past three years means the goal to keep global warming below 1.5C will soon be dead, the United Nations has warned in a new report. Continuing with current policies means the world will be on course for a temperature rise of 3.1C before the end of the century, while implementing promised reforms would at best lead to an increase of 2.6C — well above the level at which critical climate tipping points may be breached, the UN Environment Program said. Little progress has been made over the past few years despite repeated calls for stronger action plans. To underscore the lack of action, Madagascar is the only country that has come forward with a strengthened 2030 climate target this year, according to UNEP. The development does little to change the outlook for global emissions. “The emissions gap has not changed,” said Anne Olhoff, UNEP’s chief climate advisor, in an interview. “Countries have not responded to calls from the three last COPs to strengthen their 2030 targets and as a result, we are facing the same emissions gap and some dire temperature projections.” The world is yet to turn the tide on rising CO2 emissions, with the amount of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere climbing 1.3 percent last year, UNEP said. The landmark Paris Agreement in 2015 set a goal to limit global warming to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels, and ideally to 1.5C. To meet the more ambitious target, countries must collectively commit to cut emissions 42 percent by the end of the decade and 57 percent by 2035, compared with 2019 levels. “We need global mobilization on a scale and pace never seen before — starting right now, before the next round of climate pledges — or the 1.5C goal will soon be dead,” said Inger Andersen, UNEP’s executive director. The question of what more needs to be done to bend the curve of emissions will largely be left unanswered at this year’s COP29 summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, which is set to focus on how to scale climate finance from billions of dollars to trillions. A commitment to transition away from fossil fuels made at last year’s summit has been questioned by the likes of Saudi Arabia, who see it as one component of a “menu” of possible options. Countries are due to come back next year with updated climate plans that are aligned with the goal of keeping a global temperature rise to 1.5C. The bulk of the responsibility to curb greenhouse gases lies with the Group of 20 countries, which saw emissions increase last year, accounting for almost four fifths of the total. Seven members — including China and India — are yet to peak their emissions, UNEP said. Once they do so, emissions will have to drop rapidly. When it comes to finance, UNEP said the cost of the transition is relatively affordable. While funding for mitigation needs to be more focused on developing countries, investment globally must increase between $900 billion and $2.1 trillion per year, roughly 1 percent of the world’s total economic output, to achieve net zero by 2050. Despite the size of the existing emissions gap, there are some signs of progress. UNEP estimates there is a 70 percent chance that global emissions will decline this year — meaning 2023 saw the peak — if current clean tech growth continues and projections of other greenhouse gases, like methane, into the air are cut. China — the world’s biggest polluter — saw its CO2 emissions fall by 1 percent in the second quarter of this year, meaning it too may have peaked last year. But while the 1.5C goal remains “technically possible,” the UNEP report stressed it will require massive effort. Another goal set at COP28 to triple renewable power capacity by the end of the decade is at risk as the rollout of wind power lags. The future of climate policy in the world’s highest historical emitter — the US — also remains uncertain amid the prospect of a Donald Trump election win in November, just days before leaders assemble in Baku. “Climate crunch time is here,” Andersen said.

DOE awards $58.5M to 11 projects to help develop commercially viable atmospheric CO2 removal industry --The US Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management (FECM), with DOE’s Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Office (HFTO),announced more than $58.5 million in federal funding for projects to help develop a commercially viable carbon dioxide (CO₂) removal industry in the United States. The funding will support pilot projects and testing facilities to demonstrate and scale atmospheric CO₂ removal technologies.To support an emerging and necessary carbon dioxide removal industry, in 2021 DOE launched the Carbon Negative Shot—the US government’s first major carbon dioxide removal effort. Part of DOE’s larger Energy Earthshots Initiative, the Carbon Negative Shot is a Department-wide call for crosscutting innovation and commercialization of a wide range of carbon dioxide removal technologies and approaches.This Earthshot sets the portfolio-wide goal of reducing the cost of removing CO₂ from the atmosphere to less than $100 per net metric ton of CO₂-equivalent by 2032, together with robust measurement, monitoring, reporting, and verification and secure storage.The selected projects will aim to support Carbon Negative Shot objectives across carbon dioxide removal pathways through integrated pilot-scale testing of advanced technologies and detailed monitoring, reporting, and verification protocols.HFTO will manage the following project that supports small-scale biomass carbon removal and storage technology:

• Mote, Inc. (Los Angeles, California) will utilize wood waste to demonstrate a gasification system for hydrogen production coupled with CO₂ capture.

DOE’s National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), under the purview of FECM, will manage the remaining 10 projects. Four of these projects will also support small-scale biomass carbon removal and storage technology:

• Arbor Energy and Resources Corporation (El Segundo, California) will utilize unmarketable forest waste from land management practices, storing the inherent carbon in the biomass while producing power using a supercritical CO₂power system.
• Carba, Inc. (Minneapolis, Minnesota) will convert biomass to charcoal to demonstrate permanent CO2 storage as solid carbon underground in oxygen-free chambers.
• Carbon Lockdown Project Benefit LLC (Silver Spring, Maryland) will implement pilot biomass burial projects at three sites in the Appalachian region, demonstrating the utilization of a variety of residual biomass sources for carbon removal.
• Clemson University (Clemson, South Carolina) will demonstrate the injection of wood particles into the subsurface as a method for removing carbon from the atmosphere and storing it in geologic formations with high permanence.

Four projects will support enhanced mineralization technologies:

• Board of Trustees of the Leland Stanford Junior University (Stanford, California) intends to test a new enhanced weathering technology designed to enable rapid and scalable carbon dioxide removal in soil and durable storage as bicarbonate ions.
• Eion Corp (Princeton, New Jersey) plans to implement a digital measurement, reporting, and verification platform for a terrestrial enhanced weathering technology.
• Lithos Carbon (Dover, Delaware) will implement enhanced rock weathering on more than 3,000 acres of agricultural land in the southeastern United States, notably North Carolina.
• Northwestern University (Chicago, Illinois) will demonstrate an innovative enhanced weathering mineralization methodology for removing atmospheric CO₂ that will help Midwest farmers durably store carbon as dissolved bicarbonate.

Two projects will support testbed facilities suitable for evaluating, developing, and integrating multiple carbon dioxide removal pathways across different ecosystems, climates, and communities:

• Arizona Board of Regents on behalf of Arizona State University (Tempe, Arizona) will expand their existing testbed to evaluate direct air capture systems that capture CO₂ suitable for geologic storage or mineralization; grown and waste biomass carbon dioxide removal processed into biochar as an amendment to soils, low carbon concrete, and asphalt materials; and marine carbon dioxide removal pathways.
• University of North Dakota Energy & Environmental Research Center (Grand Forks, North Dakota) will expand its existing test facilities to facilitate carbon dioxide removal technology transition testing from laboratory-scale concepts to integrated pilot-scale carbon dioxide removal systems.

EPA awarding about $125M under Diesel Emissions Reduction Act -The US Environmental Protection Agency announced selections totaling nearly $125 million under the Diesel Emissions Reduction Act (DERA) National Grants Programwhich will incentivize and accelerate the upgrade or retirement of older diesel engines to cleaner and zero-emission solutions leading to significant emission reductions and air quality and public health benefits. These awards are in final workplan negotiations with the tentatively selected applicants.The DERA program prioritizes projects in areas that face air quality impacts, especially those projects that benefit disadvantaged communities and other areas that face particular public health or environmental justice risks or impacts.In total, EPA has tentatively selected approximately 70 national DERA projects to reduce diesel emissions across a range of transportation sectors including the engine replacements and upgrades to school buses, port equipment, and construction equipment. In addition to funding new cleaner diesel technologies, more than half of these selections will support replacing older equipment and vehicles with zero-emission technologies, such as all-electric school buses, terminal tractors, drayage trucks and shore power to marine vessels.All selected projects will reduce diesel pollution and benefit local communities, including disadvantaged communities and other areas facing environmental justice concerns. A small number of awards are still under processing. Once all legal and administrative requirements are satisfied and awards are finalized, EPA will update the DERA National Awards webpage.Eligible activities include the retrofit or replacement of existing diesel engines, vehicles, and equipment with EPA and California Air Resources Board certified engine configurations and verified retrofit and idle reduction technologies. New diesel engines must meet tight standards, however, nearly 8 million legacy diesel engines across transportation sectors remain in service and emit higher levels of harmful nitrogen oxides and particulate matter than newer diesel engines. These pollutants are linked to a range of serious health problems including asthma, lung and heart disease, other respiratory ailments, and premature death.In selecting projects for award, priority was given to projects that:

• Are in areas designated as having poor air quality.
• Reduce emissions from ports and other goods movement facilities.
• Benefit local communities.
• Incorporate local communities in project planning.
• Demonstrate planning or action towards reducing vulnerabilities to climate impacts.
• Illustrate preparation for workforce development.
• Demonstrate an ability to continue efforts to reduce emissions after the project has ended.

Supreme Court to consider which courts can weigh challenges to some EPA actions - The Supreme Court will take up a series of cases to determine which federal courts can take on cases related to certain Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) actions, it said Monday. The cases stem from two seemingly separate issues: whether Oklahoma and Utah need to requirements that their gasoline contain a percentage of ethanol. However, they share an underlying question: which courts can hear objections to a rejection from the EPA. The states, whose plans were rejected, want their case to be heard in the 10th Circuit Court of Appeals, while the refineries, whose exemption petitions were rejected, want their case to be heard in the 5th Circuit. By taking up the cases, the Supreme Court could be barreling toward a judgment about where challenges to a wide array of EPA actions can be heard. And some circuits have reputations for different ideologies: The 5th Circuit in particular is regarded as the nation’s most conservative. The ruling will only pertain to cases heard under the Clean Air Act, which has a provision that says challenges to “nationally applicable” clean air actions need to be heard in the District of Columbia Circuit. The states and refineries argue that the questions at issue are “locally” rather than “nationally” applicable and should therefore be heard in regional courts. In the oil refineries case, the EPA argued that the action is actually nationally applicable because it applies “a uniform methodology to 105 petitions for exemptions” for ethanol-blending requirements. Justice Samuel Alito sat out of consideration of whether to take the smog cases.

U.S. Supremes to Consider Moving EPA Cases Away from D.C. Circuit-- Marcellus Drilling News - Under the Clean Air Act, legal challenges to “nationally applicable” EPA rules must be tried in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit (D.C. Circuit). Unfortunately, that court is loaded with Constitution-ignoring liberals. The U.S. Supreme Court has just agreed to hear arguments in a set of cases that seek to move legal battles over certain EPA rules that aren’t “nationally applicable” from the D.C. Circuit to other appeals courts around the country. Is this the beginning of real justice, at least for some issues related to the out-of-control EPA?

DOE finalizes $162M loan guarantee for monitoring methane leaks - The Department of Energy gave a major boost Wednesday to a company working to track methane emissions across some of the most prolific U.S. oil and gas regions. DOE’s Loan Programs Office announced the closing of a $162.4 million loan guarantee to LongPath Technologies. The funds will help the Colorado-based company build more than 1,000 remote monitoring towers to continuously scan for emissions of the greenhouse gas. In a statement, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said blocking “harmful greenhouse gas emissions” from entering the atmosphere is a “key pillar” of the Biden administration’s agenda. DOE said the project is being financed through the Title 17 Clean Energy Financing Program created by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. The LPO loan guarantee will support up to 24,000 square miles of monitoring, DOE said in a news release, and include sites in top-producing states such as Colorado, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Texas and Pennsylvania. LongPath’s planned monitoring network could prevent methane emissions equivalent to at least 6 million metric tons of carbon dioxide from going into the atmosphere per year, according to the Energy Department.

DOE Spending $44M on Drilling Two CO2 Injection Wells in WV & OH - Marcellus Drilling News -- The Biden-Harris administration continues to spend money like drunken sailors. They can’t hand it out fast enough ahead of November 5th. We can’t even count how much has been doled out just this week—certainly several billion dollars. Some of the money flowing out of D.C. this week ($44 million) will go to a project that is part of the Appalachian Regional Clean Hydrogen Hub (ARCH2) to establish new carbon dioxide injection wells, one in Marshall County, WV, and one in Belmont County, OH.

Neste to re-evaluate its renewable H2 plan and withdraw from investing into a 120-MW electrolyzer at the Porvoo refinery - Neste has decided to withdraw from investing into a 120-MW electrolyzer project to produce renewable hydrogen (H2) at its Porvoo refinery in Finland. The decision follows the completion of the basic engineering phase, which commenced in May 2023. The reasons behind the withdrawal are the company’s challenging market conditions and financial performance, requiring critical assessment of any new investments. Evaluation of this project has been impacted by the tight limitations on the use of renewable H2 in the refinery’s processes in fulfilling the Finnish national distribution obligation. These limitations prevent the full economic utilization of an electrolyzer of this size. “While we are discontinuing the initial renewable H2 project, we are actively evaluating alternative pathways for securing renewable H2 in Porvoo. Our ambition remains to utilize renewable H2 at the Porvoo refinery, contributing also to fulfillment of the Finnish renewable fuels of non-biological origin (RFNBO) distribution obligation. Together with our partners, we continue the work to develop H2 ecosystems connected to our Porvoo refinery,” said Markku Korvenranta, Executive Vice President for Oil Products business unit at Neste.

Repsol freezes green H2 projects in Spain - Repsol has paused its planned green H2 projects in Spain, which would have had a combined electrolysis capacity of 350 MW, due to an unfavorable regulatory environment. This decision reflects concerns over regulatory uncertainty, including the potential for a permanent windfall tax on energy companies. Spain aims for 12 GW of green H2 production by 2030, making Repsol's halt significant for the country's green energy goals. The affected projects include a 100 MW initiative in Cartagena and others in Tarragona and the Basque Country. Repsol will proceed with its next electrolyzer project in Portugal instead. The company's stance against the windfall tax aligns with other oil firms, which argue that it threatens substantial investments in the energy transition.

California subsidies for manure-based biogas face rising scrutiny over pollution concerns --Tensions are rising in California’s agricultural heartland over state subsidies for manure-based biogas that are meant to help reduce planet-warming emissions but that environmental groups and locals argue are enabling widespread pollution. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) will vote next month on whether to lock in the subsidies, which the Golden State has for years been offering to industrial dairies for installing technology that deploys bacteria to break down animal waste and then repurposes it as “renewable natural gas.” California officials argue these anaerobic digesters are environmentally beneficial because they capture methane, a gas produced by dairy cows that is about 28 times more potent than carbon dioxide. But environmental groups and some residents of California’s Central Valley contend the technology also generates dangerous byproducts and encourages the propagation of polluting factory farms in vulnerable communities.The digesters emit byproducts like ammonia, nitrous oxide, residual methane, hydrogen sulfide and other odorous gases, according to a new report from nonprofit Friends of the Earth, which slammed the process as no more than “greenwashing.”The crediting for the subsidies occurs via the state’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard, an initiative launched in 2011 that requires fuel producers to meet specified carbon intensity standards — either by using lower-carbon resources themselves or by acquiring credits from industries that do so.The Low Carbon Fuel Standard allows dairy farmers to earn such credits by installing the digesters, due to their capacity to capture methane. At a public hearing held by CARB last month, however, activists criticized the Low Carbon Fuel Standard and its crediting system for perpetuating a technology that they believe is anything but renewable. “The Low Carbon Fuel Standard does not consider co-pollutants,” Phoebe Seaton, co-founder and co-executive director of the Leadership Counsel for Justice & Accountability, an environmental advocacy group, said at the hearing.The standard, she continued, fails to account for greenhouse gas “emissions both upstream and downstream associated with the creation of manure, the conversion of manure to methane gas and the disposal of the waste product.”Meanwhile, this week’s Friends of the Earth report argued that the manure digesters are not only producing dangerous emissions themselves, but they are also driving the expansion of concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs) — also known as “factory farms” — due to the convenient crediting system. “I can reach out my hands and I feel like I can touch a cow,” Josefa Gonzalez, who has lived in the small town of Pixley, Calif., for the past 19 years, told The Hill. “Our community is really small, and it’s completely surrounded by agricultural fields, where there’s fumigation and fertilizer.”Gonzalez’s tiny town is located in Tulare County, in the heart of California’s Central Valley and agriculture core. Tulare County is home to about 11 percent of the country’s so-called manure digesters: 49 dairy-adjacent facilities that harness a usable resource from the feces of area livestock, according to the Friends of the Earth report.The county now has about 295 such industrial-scale CAFOs and is home to around a third of California’s cows, per the report. Most of the county’s dairy facilities have 500 or more cows on site, the authors added.

US manufacturing generates $79B in annual climate costs, study finds - Manufacturing materials such as plastic, steel and cement generates $79 billion in climate damages each year, according to a new study. A team of researchers at the University of California, Davis, quantified the annual climate costs of producing nine common materials in the United States in a study released Thursday in Environmental Research Letters. The team used EPA’s social cost of carbon standard to show that the domestic manufacturing sector is generating tens of billions in climate costs, which go unreflected in the materials’ market prices. These hidden climate costs, as quantified by EPA, include the price of mitigating and addressing climate-related disasters. By putting a direct price tag on the manufacturing sector’s carbon emissions, the researchers hope to draw policymakers’ attention to the need to ensure the damages from carbon emissions get reflected in materials pricing, said the study’s lead author Elisabeth Van Roijen, who completed her Ph.D. at UC Davis earlier this year.

Researchers say Arkansas may have 19 million tons of lithium critical for battery power -Researchers said in a recent article that Arkansas may have 19 million tons of lithium, which isused in rechargeable batteries for important products like phones and electric cars.The researchers said in their article released last month in the journal Science Advances they had “calculated that there are 5.1 to 19 million tons of lithium in Smackover Formation brines in southern Arkansas,” making up “35 to 136% of the current US lithium resource estimate.”According to a Monday release from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), “the Smackover Formation is a relic of an ancient sea that left an extensive, porous, and permeable limestone geologic unit that extends under parts of Arkansas, Louisiana, Texas, Alabama, Mississippi, and Florida.”Lithium, which has been labeled by the USGS as a critical mineral, has been often obtained from brines or salt flats they evaporate into. According to a projection from the International Energy Agency, demand for lithium could increase by more than 40 times by 2040.According to the article, the researchers utilized a machine-learning model trained on “published and newly collected brine lithium concentration data,” making “a map of predicted lithium concentrations in Smackover Formation brines across southern Arkansas.” The article’s findings come from the work of both the USGS and the Arkansas Department of Energy and Environment’s Office of the State Geologist, according to the USGS release.

Biden approves Nev. lithium project, draws legal threat - The Biden administration Thursday signed off on a controversial plan to build one of the nation’s largest lithium mines and processing plants that would serve a coming electric vehicle boom, prompting a legal threat from environmentalists worried about the fate of an endangered wildflower.The Bureau of Land Management’s record of decision propels forward Ioneer’s proposal for an open-pit lithium and boron mine and processing plant in Esmeralda County, Nevada. Ioneer is angling to move the Rhyolite Ridge project into construction next year, with production beginning in 2028.“This permit gives us a license to commence construction in 2025 and begin our work in creating hundreds of good-paying rural jobs, generating millions in tax revenue for Esmeralda County, and bolstering the domestic production of critical minerals,” Ioneer Managing Director Bernard Rowe said. “I can say with absolute confidence there are few deposits in the world as impactful as Rhyolite Ridge,” Ioneer Executive Chair James Calaway added.Ioneer’s project, slated to cost $785 million, stands to pull in a $700 million federal loan commitmentfor the chemical processing plant, as well as lucrative contracts with lithium-hungry EV makers and possibly millions of dollars in tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act.Environmentalists immediately denounced the government’s go-ahead for the big project that’s incited years of debate, litigation and regulatory maneuvering.Patrick Donnelly, Great Basin director at the Center for Biological Diversity, said his group, the Western Shoshone Defense Project, and the Great Basin Resource Watch immediately sent BLM and the Fish and Wildlife Service a 60-day notice that they intend to sue under the Endangered Species Act. Donnelly said the federal action signals doom for Tiehm’s buckwheat, an endangered wildflower that only grows at the site where Ioneer intends to mine.“By greenlighting this mine, the Bureau of Land Management is abandoning its duty to protect endangered species like Tiehm’s buckwheat, and it’s making a mockery of the Endangered Species Act,” Donnelly said. “We need lithium for the energy transition, but it can’t come with a price tag of extinction.”Donnelly warned that further litigation is “now the only way [to] stop the Rhyolite Ridge mine from causing the extinction of Tiehm’s buckwheat, harm to cultural sites and resources, and destruction of water resources.”

Biden administration boosts renewables production tax credit -The Biden administration is expanding a federal tax credit that seeks to incentivize domestic production of components for solar and wind energy, as well as batteries. The Treasury Department issued final guidance Thursday that details how a renewables manufacturing credit from the Democrats’ climate tax and health care law will be implemented.Compared to a proposed guidance issued late last year, the final guidance makes the credit more lucrative for industry — which officials said could help expand both domestic manufacturing and domestic mining.The tax credit applies to the production of a wide range of components including the making of solar grade polysilicon, battery cells and the refining of key minerals. Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo told reporters Wednesday that under the expanded guidance, companies will be able to get credit for the costs of the materials they use to make the components. They will also be able to get credit for mining costs.“The Biden Harris administration understands how important onshoring the production of critical minerals is to developing secure, clean energy supply chains, and today’s rules represent a major step forward in that effort,” Adeyemo said. Under the previously proposed guidance companies could not get credit for “merely purchasing raw materials.”As a result of the change, an administration official told reporters, they expect lower costs for manufacturers and a greater incentive for domestic mining. The announcement comes days after the administration publicized the detection of large amounts of lithium found in Arkansas.

Dominion Energy firms up balance sheet with deal closing on Virginia offshore wind project -- Dominion Energy Inc. said Tuesday it closed on a deal to sell a 50-percent noncontrolling interest in the Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind (CVOW) commercial project to Stonepeak, an alternative investment firm specializing in infrastructure and real assets. Dominion Energy will retain full operational control of the construction and operations of the project, and Stonepeak will have customary minority rights under the transaction, which was announced Feb. 22.“Stonepeak is one of the world’s largest infrastructure investors in large energy projects such as offshore wind,” Dominion CEO Robert Blue said, “and its financial participation in CVOW will benefit both the project and the people who will rely on electricity from CVOW to keep the lights on and fuel economic growth in the Commonwealth.” At closing, Dominion Energy received proceeds of $2.6 billion, representing reimbursement of approximately 50 percent of project-to-date capital investment. Stonepeak will fund 50 percent of the remaining project costs as they are incurred, subject to certain conditions as previously disclosed, the utility company said.

U.S. Electricity Demand Jump Catches Power Utilities Unaware -- Earlier this month, the Department of Energy announced a grant pot of almost $2 billion to be distributed among 32 projects in 42 states. The purpose of the projects is to improve grid resilience. The challenge: $2 billion is a drop in the bucket as unexpected electricity demand calls for not just resilience improvements but a massive grid expansion. For about a decade, demand for electricity in the United States had been virtually flat. It reached a peak in the 2010s and plateaued. In that context, it was perhaps a foregone conclusion that demand will remain where it was. Yet it didn’t, because we have entered the era of data centers, which coincides with the push for the total electrification of everything. No grid in the world can handle both of these without some major adjustments. Indeed, a recent report from Wood Mackenzie says that the challenge for U.S. power utilities could become extra serious as future demand projections peg growth at between 4% and 15% between this year and 2029. The report cited “burgeoning data-centre development, a resurgence in energy-intensive US manufacturing, and greater transport and heating electrification driving electricity demand growth not seen since the 1990s,” as factors driving the demand growth. The firm’s analysts then pointed out that while certain rates of demand growth would be welcomed by the power utility industry, any faster growth presents a problem because the necessary upgrades to the grid take years to bring from plan to field.“In the power sector, however, new infrastructure planning takes 5 to 10 years, and the industry is only now starting to plan for growth,” Wood Mackenzie’s Vice Chairman of power and renewables, Chris Seiple, said. Meanwhile, demand is growing right now, with as much as 24 GW in new data center capacity announced in the first half of the year alone, according to the Wood Mac report. Since January 2023, new data center announcements have reached 51 GW. This alone would require a substantial additional supply of electricity and the grid infrastructure to bring it from the supplier to the data center consumer. But tech giants are not stopping there. The industry has really big plans for its artificial intelligence programs and will need more capacity. Now add to this the electrification drive strongly supported by the federal and state governments and the population growth in some parts of the country such as Texas, causing jumps in power demand. There is also the effect of the Inflation Reduction Act, commonly referred to as Biden’s climate bill, on U.S. manufacturing and, consequently, electricity demand. According to Wood Mac, the IRA subsidies are spearheading a renaissance in U.S. manufacturing, especially in batteries, solar wafers, and semiconductors. A rebound in manufacturing is good news for any economy—but not all good news for power utilities as, in this case, it would lead to an additional demand of up to 15 GW over the next few years, per Wood Mackenzie. As usual, there are sceptics that all of this additional demand would pan out. Fitch Ratings is one of these. In a July report, the ratings agency said that power utilities may be overestimating the additional electricity demand that data centers would create and risk overbuilding as a result because of “inconsistent methodologies for forecasting load.”In that same report, Fitch Ratings also noted the effect that this need to expand the grid would have on electricity prices—additional demand is not going to make electricity cheaper. This in itself could serve as a restraining factor in the buildout of demand-intensive new capacity, as evidenced by the delay or shelving of many IRA-funded projects because of unfavorable market conditions. The FT revealed the delays and indefinite pauses earlier this year, saying companies cited factors such as demand slowdown, macroeconomic conditions, and political uncertainty as reasons for their decision to not go ahead with initial plans in batteries, semiconductors, and solar components, among others. If an imbalance between demand for electricity and its supply pushes prices higher, this would only add to the woes of the industries spurred into fast growth by the IRA. The fast rate of projected demand growth in electricity is also presenting a challenge for grid decarbonization efforts as well. Wind and solar capacity is simply not expanding fast enough to accommodate all the additional demand, according to Wood Mac. According to factual power generation data, it never could—because it is not on-demand capacity, unlike coal, gas, and nuclear.In September, Reuters reported, citing data from LSEG, that coal and gas generation in the United States had represented 58% of the total in the first eight months of the year. While this was down from 60.4% in the first eight months of 2021, in absolute terms, the power output of coal and gas plants was higher than three years ago. Because demand was higher and these plants could ramp up output in response. In the context of growing power demand and a market imperative to satisfy it, baseload generators would be the only sure winners.

Big Tech Not Happy with OH Utility Counterproposal re Data Centers - Marcellus Drilling News -- Last week, MDN brought you a story about a developing issue of who, ultimately, should pay to build out new electricity sources for data centers (and AI) that increasingly use huge amounts of power (see Big Tech and Big Utility Tangle in Ohio re Data Center Electricity). A large utility company in central Ohio, AEP Ohio, is tangling with Big Tech companies, including Amazon, Google, and others, about the commitments those companies should make before it will risk investing billions to bring new power facilities (natgas, solar, wind, nukes, whatever) online. We have the next chapter in this ongoing saga. AEP Ohio filed a counterproposal on Wednesday that it hopes the state Public Utilities Commission of Ohio (PUCO) will adopt. Big Tech is NOT pleased and says Ohio risks losing out on constructing new data centers should AEP’s counterproposal go forward.

New Mexico indigenous communities oppose federal plans for transmission line - Northern New Mexico Indigenous communities and environmental groups are calling for the reconsideration of federal plans to run a new transmission line through an ecosystem they say is both vulnerable and critical to local tradition.The plans, proposed by the National Nuclear Security Administration and the Department of Energy, involve the construction of a 14-mile, 115-kilovolt line that would boost power reliability and redundancy for supercomputing and other projects at the Los Alamos National Labs (LANL).An LANL fact sheet summarizing the project describes the new power supply as critical to the site’s national security missions, which include “top supercomputers used to model weapon performance, climate change, disease progression, wildfires and more,” as well as a particle accelerator used for medical, nuclear and aerospace purposes.But the Electrical Power Capacity Upgrade Project would also traverse the Caja del Rio plateau, where activists are seeking to protect cultural and natural resources, vital biodiversity and environments that are woven into the fabric of adjacent Pueblo communities.“It’s so beautiful, and it has different variations of the land — there’s mesas, there’s canyons,” Reyes DeVore, a Jemez Pueblo member and program director for Pueblo Action Alliance, told The Hill.“But also, there are sacred sites in areas that the surrounding Pueblo people and communities have connection to,” DeVore continued. “When I think about the harmful impacts, I think about the disturbance of the land in itself, but also the stories that are held there.”Although the project accumulated more than 23,000 opposition statements during a public comment period that followed the release of a December environmental assessment, the plans have continued to advance. The project cleared one of its final hurdles last month, when the U.S. Forest Service released a draft decision indicating it found “no significant impact” on the Santa Fe National Forest. Such a declaration is necessary for the project to receive a Forest Service special use permit and right-of-way grant from the Bureau of Land Management, per the draft.The release of the draft decision launched an objection period, after which a final decision is expected to be issued on Jan. 1 when the project’s implementation could also begin.DeVore said that during this objection period, she and her colleagues are working with Tesuque Pueblo leaders and members of the Caja del Rio coalition to raise awareness. Their goal, she explained, is to push the Forest Service to reconsider its decision on the special use permit and convince officials of the need for a tribal-led ethnographic study. “As Indigenous people, we’re going to do what we need to do to protect our landscapes that we have connection to, but also to stop further development that could potentially harm — and we know that it will,” DeVore continued. Such calls have extended far beyond indigenous communities and local activist groups. In fact, Santa Fe’s City Council in June 2022 passed a resolution supporting the long-term preservation of the Caja del Rio plateau. “The Governing Body supports all efforts to empower Pueblo Nations and traditional Hispano communities in performing meaningful cultural interpretation, environmental education, and historical preservation of this treasured landscape,” the resolution stated.The month before, the Santa Fe County Board of County Commissioners adopted a similar resolution — likewise expressing support for “the permanent protection, long-term preservation and responsible stewardship of the Caja del Rio landscape.” Nonetheless, federal agencies have deemed the new transmission line necessary because two existing lines are expected to approach capacity by the end of 2027, according to the LANL. The project would also include the addition of a 100-foot-wide right-of-way corridor and a fiber optic line to improve communication between the LANL and the Los Alamos townsite.

The So-Called Transition to All-Electric is Powered by…Coal? -Marcellus Drilling News -- It seems the left’s proclamations that it had “won” the so-called “war on coal” were premature. So says none other than the lefties at Bloomberg. You may remember that Michael Bloomberg, the owner of the Bloomberg News Service, had donated over $1 billion to the odious (anti-American) Sierra Club in a bid to shut down every last coal-fired power plant in the United States. We’re far along the curve to completing that dubious goal. Except now, new coal-fired plants are popping up in other countries, and coal use is EXPANDING, not contracting. So, the only country truly harmed by Bloomberg’s mission is the United States. Bloomberg’s own news service is now admitting the truth—that coal is sticking around because without it, the lights would go out.

Amazon invests in X-Energy to support advanced small modular nuclear reactors; plans to collaborate to bring 5GW online in US by 2039\ - X-Energy Reactor Company, a nuclear reactor and fuel design engineering company,announced a Series C-1 financing round of approximately $500 million, anchored by Amazon. The investment will help meet growing energy demands by funding the completion of X-energy’s reactor design and licensing as well as the first phase of its TRISO-X fuel fabrication facility in Oak Ridge, Tennessee.Additionally, the funding will support future carbon-free projects that will use X-energy’s Xe-100 advanced small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs). Citadel Founder and CEO Ken Griffin, affiliates of Ares Management Corporation (Ares), NGP, and the University of Michigan join Amazon’s Climate Pledge Fund in the financing round.Amazon and X-energy are also collaborating to bring more than 5 gigawatts of new power projects online across the United States by 2039, representing the largest commercial deployment target of SMRs to date.The efforts will help meet growing energy demands in key locations through direct project investments and long-term power purchase agreements to help power Amazon operations. Further, X-energy and Amazon plan to establish and standardize a deployment and financing model to develop projects in partnership with infrastructure and utility partners.The companies will initially support a four-unit 320 MW project with regional utility Energy Northwest in central Washington with the option to increase that project to 12 units and 960 MW. Amazon is immediately committing a direct investment in the Energy Northwest project to fund early development work that X-energy will perform.Each reactor unit is engineered to provide 80 MW of electricity and is optimized in multi-unit plants ranging from 320 MW to 960 MW. The simplified modular design is road-shippable and intended to drive geographic scalability, accelerate construction timelines, and create more predictable and manageable construction costs.X-energy’s advanced reactor technology offers remarkable efficiency and resiliency to meet the requirements of energy-intensive data centers, allowing Amazon to align its growth and carbon-free energy goals.

Ohio Delays Decision on More Fracking Under Salt Fork State Park - The Ohio Oil & Gas Land Management Commission (OGLMC) met yesterday to consider whether to allow fracking under (not on) two Ohio state-owned lands, including the Leesville Wildlife Area in Carroll County and Salt Fork State Park in Guernsey County. Commissioners approved moving forward to the next step with Leesville, which is to accept bids. They also voted to delay a decision on more fracking under Salt Fork State Park.

Ohio opens state wildlife area for fracking; defers ruling on drilling expansion in state park - cleveland.com By Jake Zuckerman, A state panel on Monday approved an industry application to open about 62 acres of a preserved wildlife area in Carroll County for oil and gas drilling. The decision from the Oil and Gas Land Management Commission triggers a competitive bidding process through which the state will select the “highest and best” bid for mineral rights to access oil or gas reserves under Leesville Wildlife Area in eastern Ohio.

Sixty-two acres of land at Ohio's Leesville Wildlife Area are one step closer to being fracked • Ohio Capital Journal --About 62 acres of Leesville Wildlife Area were approved to move forward to bidding for fracking during Monday’s seven minuteOhio Oil and Gas Land Management meeting.This is about 15% of the total land in Leesville Wildlife Area, which is located in Carroll County. “The commission did not consider any ‘highest and best’ bids for the leasing of mineral rights at this meeting, only nominations were considered,” Ohio Department of Natural Resources spokesperson Karina Cheung said in an email. “According to statute, all nominations and bids remain anonymous until the ‘highest and best’ bidder is announced.”The new OGLMC Chair Theresa White decided to hold off on making a decision about 884 acres of land at Salt Fork State Park in Guernsey County. “Going through the comments and the documents submitted for these nominations, I wonder if we might hold off on making determinations on these nominations,” White said. “There were over 360 total comments submitted on these and I would appreciate some more time to weigh the pros and cons before making a decision. … I would like to request that we delay action on these nominations until our next meeting.”The two other commissioners who were present at the meeting — Jim McGregor and Stephen Buehrer — agreed to wait until the commission’s next meeting. The next meeting has not been scheduled yet. Anti-fracking advocates at Monday’s meeting were surprised White and the commissioners decided to delay the Salt Fork decision. “I see that as a positive,” Melinda Zemper, with Save Ohio Parks, said after Monday’s meeting. “We don’t know why, but we’re just going to continue trying to educate the people of Ohio about the irrevocable effects that fracking will have on our environment and people’s health and our natural resources. So we’ll be back at the next meeting and beyond.” Jenny Morgan, also with Save Ohio Parks, was not as optimistic. “Every time they hold off, they just come back and vote yes,” she said after the meeting. “So it didn’t mean anything to me, really. It just means they’ll come back and they’ll vote it in because it just seems like they have the ear of the industry. They haven’t listened to the public.”There were more than 1,400 fracking incidents associated with oil and gas wells in Ohio between 2018 and September 2023, according to FracTracker Alliance — a nonprofit that collects data on fracking pipelines. About 10% of those incidents were reported as fires or explosions.During that same time period, there were 56 total incidents in Guernsey County (where Salt Fork is located), according to FracTracker. Before Monday’s brief meeting, several Save Ohio Parks volunteers took turns speaking outside the Ohio Department of Public Safety building (where the OGLMC’s meetings are held). “Folks commonly say they love taking their kids or grandkids to our state parks, so why on Earth would anyone want to damage these cherished spaces?” Save Ohio Parks volunteer Shannon Flanders asked. “And how will the animals, plants, lakes, and woods survive such harm? … It is absurd to allow out-of-state oil and gas companies to disrupt the outdoor, natural sanctuaries we love in Ohio.” Cathy Cowan Becker read comments that were submitted to ODNR about the acres of land in question at Leesville Wildlife Area and Salt Fork State Park.“As a frequent boater on Leesville Lake and a year round resident of Carroll County, I am firmly opposed to fracking this wildlife area,” Cowan read from a comment that was submitted.

Encino Looks to Expand Drilling Under & Around Leesville Lake, OH - - Marcellus Drilling News - Encino Energy wants to establish new oil and gas wells on Leesville Lake lands owned by the Muskingum Watershed Conservancy District (MWCD) in Carroll County. The conservancy district’s board of directors is expected to consider a lease agreement with the company’s Ohio affiliate at its meeting tomorrow. The left is apoplectic. The MWCD manages over 54,000 acres of land in Ohio. Over the past decade, the MWCD has leased over half of that land for shale drilling. This isn’t the conservancy’s first rodeo with shale drillers. Encino is one of four operators the MWCD has leased with and is the largest of the four that leases MWCD-owned acreage.

EIA: Utica Shale Gas Production Dropped 10% First 9 Mos. of 2024 - Marcellus Drilling News - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports that U.S. natural gas production from shale and tight formations declined by about 1% from January through September 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. Most of the decline comes from two shale plays—the Haynesville in Louisiana and Texas (down 12%) and the Utica Shale in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia (down 10%). Although the EIA’s analysis (below) is excellent and instructive, it misses one important detail about the decrease in Utica Shale gas production

OH Lawmakers Asked to Waive Competitive Bids to Plug Orphaned Wells -- Marcellus Drilling News - The Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR) asked a panel of lawmakers called the Ohio Controlling Board to waive the need for competitive bidding for $11.2 million in contracts to plug orphaned oil and gas wells around the state. Yesterday, the Controlling Board approved the request. The contracts were awarded to two companies: Next LVL Energy (owned by Diversified Energy) will receive $7 million, and CSR Services will receive $4.2 million

Ohio Oil and Gas Association opposes Issue 1 - Energy and Policy Institute - -The Ohio Oil and Gas Association has come out in opposition to Issue 1, the ballot initiative that aims to depoliticize how voting districts are drawn in Ohio and end partisan gerrymandering. “During its September meeting, OOGA’s Board of Trustees voted to OPPOSE Issue 1,” an Ohio Oil and Gas Association (OOGA)document posted with the group’s online 2024 election guide said.OOGA’s Board of Trustees includes more than forty individuals representing companies involved in the oil and gas industry, including Ariel Corporation, Blackrock Resources, CNX Resources, Enbridge, Energy Transfer, EOG Resources, EQT Corporation, Gulfport Energy, Knox Energy, and Southwestern Energy, which merged with Chesapeake Energy earlier this year. “VOTE NO on Issue 1,” a banner positioned at the top of OOGA’s online election guide now says. OOGA’s opposition to Issue 1 puts the oil and gas industry association at odds with a majority pof Ohio voters who plan to vote “Yes” on Issue 1, according to polling done by Bowling Green University in September. Partisan gerrymandering has enabled one-party rule by Republicans in Columbus. Republican state lawmakers have used their supermajorities in the Ohio House and Senate to enact controversial laws backed by OOGA and its members. Republican lawmakers passed House Bill 201 last year with support from OOGA. The new law allows gas utilities to charge Ohio customers millions of dollars annually to fund what H.B. 201 opponents like state senator Kent Smith, a Democrat, call pipelines to nowhere. In 2022, Republicans pushed through state legislation, House Bill 507, backed by OOGA to open up state parks to fracking for oil and gas. H.B. 507 also redefined methane gas, a fossil fuel, as “green energy” in Ohio. The move was backed by The Empowerment Alliance (TEA), a project of Republican megadonor couple Karen Buchwald Wright and Tom Rastin, whose family owns Ariel Corp. OOGA honored Buchwald Wright earlier this year with its Patriot Award. The OOGA document detailing the industry group’s opposition to Issue 1 links to the website of Ohio Works for more information. Ohio Works is a 501(c)(4) organization and ballot issue PAC that spent more than $1.7 million in September opposing Issue 1 and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris, according toFederal Elections Commission (FEC) filings. The Energy and Policy Institute emailed a spokesperson for OOGA to ask if the industry group or its PAC has contributed any money to Ohio Works, which has yet to disclose any of its donors in campaign finance filings with the FEC and Ohio Secretary of State. OOGA had not responded at the time this blog was published. Ohio Works’ website lists OOGA as a “NO ON 1 TEAM” member.

What Harris and Trump have said about fracking and the environment - Ohio Capital Journal -- Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump both say they don’t want to get rid of fracking, but that’s about where their similarities seem to end when it comes to their stance on the environment. Harris flip-flopped on her position of fracking. When she ran for president in 2019 she said she wanted to ban fracking, but changed her tune when she became President Joe Biden’s running mate. Now, she’s saying she would not ban fracking if elected president. “Let’s talk about fracking because we’re here in Pennsylvania,” Harris said during last month’s presidential debate in Philadelphia. “I made that very clear in 2020 I will not ban fracking. I have not banned fracking as vice president of the United States. … My position is that we have got to invest in diverse sources of energy so we reduce our reliance on foreign oil.”Pennsylvania is a key swing state in this year’s election and is one of the country’s largest producers of natural gas. Trump, who has been quick to point out Harris’ change in her stance on fracking, says he wants to increase fracking leases on federal lands. “We will drill, baby, drill,” Trump said over the summer at the Republican National Convention. Despite changing her stance on fracking, Save Ohio Parks doesn’t think that will hurt Harris. “I think I see that personally as a way to moderate her stances,” said Melinda Zemper, a volunteer with Save Ohio Parks. “Harris has been supportive of clean energy in the past, so we see her as more malleable in the terms of creating energy policy that is aggressive enough to allow us to have our children and grandchildren exist on a livable planet.” Fracking has been documented in over 30 states, according to the Center for Biological Diversity. Vermont, New York, Maryland, Washington and California all ban fracking, according to the Center for Biological Diversity. According to a recent Pew Research Center survey, 44% of Americans support more fracking for oil and gas in the United States and 53% are against it. The United States is producing more oil and natural gas than ever before and way more than any other country. Drilling companies can frack in Ohio State Parks and the Ohio Oil and Gas Land Management Commission has granted the mineral rights to many oil and gas companies so they can frack under land owned by the Ohio Department of Natural Resources and the Ohio Department of Transportation. There were more than 1,400 fracking incidents associated with oil and gas wells in Ohio between 2018 and September 2023, according to FracTracker Alliance — a nonprofit that collects data on fracking pipelines. About 10% of those incidents were reported as fires or explosions.“What ends up happening is you end up taking places like Appalachia, eastern part of Ohio, southeastern part of Ohio, and you make it like, frankly, a sacrifice zone in the name of resource colonization,” said Ted Auch, Fractracker Alliance Midwest Program Director. “We did this with coal, we do it with steel, we do it with timber, and now we’re doing with oil and gas.” Presidents do not have the ability to ban fracking without support from Congress. A president can, however, impact fracking on federal land, Auch said.“The way that I looked at it is like the Democrats talk a big game, end up doing very little in terms of pushing the needle on a renewable future, and they they are more polite and discreet about how they go about business, while the Republicans say the quiet part out loud, but at the end of the day, both parties are beholden to fossil fuel industry to varying degrees,” he said.

14 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Oct 14 – 20 - Marcellus Drilling News - For the week of Oct 14 - 20, there were 14 permits issued to drill Marcellus/Utica wells, up from 10 permits issued the prior week. The Keystone State (PA) had just four new permits (down from six the previous week), with three going to Southwestern Energy (now Expand Energy) in Susquehanna County and one for Seneca Resources in Lycoming County. The Buckeye State (OH) had seven new permits, with six going to Encino Energy (EAP) for two pads in Carroll County. The other OH permit was for Ascent Resources in Harrison County. The Mountain State (WV) issued three new permits, with all three going to Southwestern Energy (now Expand Energy) in Marshall County. ASCENT RESOURCES | CARROLL COUNTY | ENCINO ENERGY | HARRISON COUNTY | LYCOMING COUNTY | MARSHALL COUNTY | SENECA RESOURCES | SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY | SUSQUEHANNA COUNTY

PA Rig Count Stays Down, M-U @ 32; National Count Drops 1 @ 585 - Marcellus Drilling News - Two weeks ago, Pennsylvania lost two rigs, down to just 13 active rigs, the lowest PA's rig count has been since July 2016 (see PA Craters, Drops 2 Rigs, M-U @ 32; National Rig Count Adds 1 @ 586). That’s the lowest rig count for PA in more than eight years. Last week, PA and the other two Marcellus/Utica states, OH and WV, remained constant in their rig counts (13, nine, and ten, respectively). The national rig count collectively lost one rig last week and now stands at 585.

Range Resources marks 20th anniversary of first Marcellus Shale well - Pittsburgh Business Times -- Range Resources Corp. executives, employees and community members on Wednesday marked the 20th anniversary of a single 8,470-foot well in Mount Pleasant Township, Washington County, that spawned the American shale gas revolution. Range is one of the state's biggest natural gas producers, and it exclusively produces in southwestern Pennsylvania where it also has a big community presence and a regional headquarters at Southpointe. Range under a different name had a long history in conventional oil and gas drilling in Appalachia before October 2004, when geologist Bill Zagorski and the Range team found success in unlocking a reservoir of natural gas two miles under Mount Pleasant above a family farm. The company's success — and others like it in Pennsylvania, West Virginia and eastern Ohio — not only discovered how to bring to the surface oil, gas and other liquids from the Marcellus and Utica shales but they transformed the region into the biggest natural gas field in the United States with an estimate of more than 96.5 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in the Marcellus alone. And Pennsylvania, thanks to Range and others, have helped the United States become energy independent, something it wasn't in 2004 when the Renz well was drilled.

Murrysville Rejects Antis’ Petition to Cancel Leases Under Parks - - Marcellus Drilling News - Last December, Murrysville (PA) Council members voted to lease land for shale drilling under two town parks—Duff Park and Murrysville Community Park (see Murrysville, PA to Vote in Dec. on Plan to Drill Under Two Parks). Murrysville is located in Westmoreland County, in the southwestern part of the state. Olympus Energy pitched proposals to lease under both parks, using their adjacent leased acreage (on private land) to set up rigs to drill under the parks, which the council approved. The council also approved a lease last year with Apex Energy to drill and frack under Kovalczik Park. Last week, so-called environmental group Protect PT presented a petition to the council asking them to rescind the leases for drilling under the three parks.

PA Oil & Gas Weekly Compliance Dashboard - October 5 to 18 - Conventional Well Owners Issued 767 Violations For Abandoning Their Wells - So Far, More Than Double Number In 2019; Leaking Gas Storage Area Wells -From October 5 to 18, DEP’s Oil and Gas Compliance Database shows oil and gas inspectors filed 1,474 inspection entries, along with inspection reports from previous weeks. So far this year, DEP took these actions as of October 4--

• -- NOVs Issued In Last Week: 27 conventional, 13 unconventional
• -- Year To Date - NOVs Issued: 6,264 conventional and 791 unconventional
• -- Enforcements 2024: 398 conventional and 101 unconventional (orders, agreements)
• -- Inspections Last Week: 313 conventional and 318 unconventional
• -- Year To Date - Inspections: 13,117 conventional and 18,768 unconventional
• -- Wells Drilled Last Week: 4 conventional and 9 unconventional
• -- Year To Date Wells Drilled: 131 conventional and 235 unconventional

On October 3, 2024, DEP did follow-up inspections of 2 conventional wells-- GE Klayer 2 and Rahl & Burnwell 524-- serving the Eastern Gas Transmission & Storage Inc. North Summit Gas Storage Reservoir in Wharton Township, Fayette County and found them abandoned, not plugged and leaking gas. The original violations for abandonment were issued on August 16, 2024 and the well owner failed to permanently plug the wells and stop the gas leaks. DEP’s inspection reports [example] requested the well owner to again submit a plan by November 10, 2024 on how the wells will be brought into compliance. On October 11, 2024, DEP inspected the WK Stewart 1 conventional well owned by Big Sand Drilling Co Inc. in Lower Burrell City, Westmoreland County and found it to be abandoned and not plugged with a faint odor of gas.The owner also failed to submit production, waste generation and well integrity reports for at least five years.DEP’s inspection report requested the owner to submit a plan by October 31, 2024 on how the well will be brought into compliance.On October 15 & 16, 2024, DEP inspected 3 conventional oil and gas wells-- Detwiler Unit 1, James Noel 1, Walker 1616-- in Addison Township, Somerset County owned by Oil & Gas MGMT Inc. and found them all to be abandoned and not plugged.The original violations for abandonment were issued on or about November 14, 2023 and the well owner failed to do anything in response to the violations.DEP’s inspection reports [example] continued the abandonment violations and others for failure to submit annual production and waste reports and requested the well owner to submit a plan by October 25, 2024 on how the wells will be brought into compliance.On October 8, 2024, DEP did a follow-up inspection of the Allshouse 3492 conventional gas well owned by Diversified Prod LLC in Knox Township, Jefferson County and found the abandoned well was in the process of being plugged.DEP inspected the well on October 2 as part of a stray gas investigation and had issued violations related to abandonment on May 6, 2024. Read more here.DEP’s inspection report noted the plugging operation found the well casing was compromised by holes in multiple locations.DEP said the violations related to abandonment will be continued until the job is done. DEP also inspected at least 18 other conventional oil and gas wells with Unknown owners to confirm their coordinates and evaluate them for consideration under the federal conventional oil and gas well plugging program. So far in 2024, DEP issued 767 new or continued violations to conventional oil and gas well owners for abandoning and not plugging their wells.So far in 2024, 26 violations were issued or continued to 10 shale gas well owners [Diversified Prod LLC; Big Dog Energy LLC follow-up; Big Dog Energy LLC; EQT Production Co.; Diversified Prod LLC; Chesapeake Appalachia LLC, Atlas Resources, LLC; Atlas Resources, LLC (follow-up inspection)’ Repsol Oil & Gas, EQT Chap LLC; M4 Energy; M4 Energy (follow-up inspection); EQT (Rice Drilling B LLC); and Roulette Oil & Gas LLC; Roulette Oil & Gas LLC (follow-up inspection)] for abandoning wells and not plugging wells.On October 17, 2024, DEP reported sample results confirmed a spill of shale gas wastewater occurred at the Donna shale gas well pad in Terry Township, Bradford County owned by Chesapeake Appalachia, LLC.DEP found the spill on September 30 during a routine inspection.DEP’s inspection report includes additional violations related to the spill, and for failing to notify DEP. Because an unknown quantity of wastewater was released, DEP recommended Chesapeake remediate the area under the Act 2 Land Recycling Program.DEP again requested the well pad owner to submit a plan by November 8, 2024 on how the pad will be brought into compliance.On October 17, 2024, DEP reported sample results confirmed a spill of shale gas wastewater occurred at the Tract 726D shale gas well pad in Plunketts Creek Township, Lycoming County owned by PA General Energy Co LLC.The spills were discovered during a routine DEP inspection on October 3.Because an unknown quantity of wastewater was released, DEP recommended PA General Energy remediate the area under the Act 2 Land Recycling Program.DEP’s inspection report again requested the well pad owner to submit a plan by November 8, 2024 on how the pad will be brought into compliance.On October 7, 2024, DEP did a routine inspection of the Bowers 408 shale gas well pad in Jackson Township, Tioga County owned by Repsol Oil & Gas USA LLC and found a build up of wastewater in secondary containment around the waste storage tanks.Elevated levels of conductivity were also found outside the containment indicating there may be a leak. A Repsol representative contacted DEP the following day and said the wastewater had been removed from a well cellar and that it had been constructed of corrugated metal that deteriorated over time. DEP’s inspection report requested the well owner to submit a plan by October 24, 2024 on how the well pad will be brought into compliance.So far in 2024, DEP received or acted on 228 Act 2 Land Recycling notices and reports related to oil and gas facility site cleanups. Read more here.On October 1, 2024, DEP and a representative of EPA’s Underground Injection Control Program inspected the Green Glen Corp 4 conventional well being used as an observation well for the Povlik #1 underground oil and gas wastewater injection well owned by Danken-Sammer LLC in Huston Township, Clearfield County.The inspection found the Green Glen Corp 4 well was leaking gas and had increasing fluid levels indicating casing and/or cementing failures.DEP’s inspection report included violations related to failure to notify DEP of casing/cementing defects and failure to correct the problems. The well owner was requested to submit a plan by October 25, 2024 on how the well will be brought into compliance.DEP returned to the well on October 7, 2024 to take a sample of the gas for molecular and isotopic analysis to see if it matches gas from the Povlik #1 wastewater injection well. [DEP inspection report] On October 1, 2024, DEP inspected 7 conventional gas wells used as gas injection wells to service the Donegal Gas Storage Reservoir in Donegal Township, Washington County owned by Columbia Gas Transmission LLC and found them to be leaking gas.The wells included Columbia Gas 4078, Daisy Defrance 0, Stanley Buick L4077, Stanley Buick UX 3, Montgomery 1, Martin L3702 and Patterson L4079. DEP’s inspection reports [example] include multiple violations for leaking gas and request the well owner to submit a plan by November 2, 2024 to bring the wells into compliance.On October 6, 8 & 17, 2024, DEP inspected 6 more conventional gas wells used as gas injection wells to service the Donegal Gas Storage Reservoir in Donegal Township, Washington County owned by Columbia Gas Transmission LLC and found them all to be leaking gas.The wells included Patterson L3555, Grcich ET UX 0, DeFrance L4074, WS Main 4757; Daisy DeFrance 2 and Stanley Buick UX 0. DEP’s inspection reports [example] requested the well owner to submit plans by between November 9 and 17 (depending on the inspection date) for bringing the wells into compliance.These inspections continue DEP’s compliance review of Columbia’s Donegal Gas Reservoir which in the last several weeks found multiple abandoned and leaking gas wells. Read more here.On October 15, 2024, DEP’s Compliance Reporting Database shows a $1,000 penalty was assessed against BJS, LLC for failing to keep emergency contacting postings at three conventional well sites in the City of Warren up-to-date.On October 2, 2024, DEP was called to the site of three conventional wells in Warren after a lawnmower damaged a gas pipeline causing a leak. Read more here.The Warren Fire Department said incorrect information on emergency contact postings on the wells delayed a response to the incident.On October 8, 2024, DEP inspected the C&K Coal 13 conventional well in Boggs Township, Centre County owned by Capital Oil & Gas Inc. in response to a notification by the Capital well tender and the property owner of a wastewater spill.DEP found evidence of a spill and what “appeared to be a bullet hole” in the wastewater storage tank that caused the release of wastewater. DEP’s inspection report included violations for the spill and requested the well owner to submit a plan by October 28, 2024 on how the well site will be brought into compliance. On October 11, 2024, DEP inspected a surface water pipeline in Ward Township, Tioga County in response to a notification from Repsol Oil & Gas USA LLC the pipeline ruptured on October 10 and released an estimated 18,900 gallons of what the company was fresh water from an impoundment on DCNR State Forest land.The water washed out an area immediately at the site of the rupture, flowed into a roadside ditch and then into a culvert and across the lawn of a residence. DEP’s inspection report said conductivity measures confirmed it was fresh water and no violations were issued.

Environmental, Health Groups Submit Petition To Environmental Quality Board For More Protective Setbacks From Shale Gas Wells For Schools, Daycares, Hospitals, Buildings, Drinking Water Wells, Surface Water - On October 22, the Clean Air Council and Environmental Integrity Project filed a 358-page rulemaking petition with the Environmental Quality Board asking it to increase minimum setback distances from fracking wells. Setbacks, also referred to as protective buffers and no-drill zones in the context of fracking, are mandatory distances that fracking wells must abide by to keep them separated from homes, schools, hospitals, drinking water wells, and surface water. Pennsylvania’s current fracking well location requirements—which include a waivable 500-foot setback distance from buildings and a 1,000-foot setback distance from water supply extraction points—are woefully insufficient to protect public health and the environment from the numerous dangers of fracking, according to the petition..Clean Air Council, Environmental Integrity Project, and a coalition of environmental and public health organizations - called Protective Buffers PA - are calling for the following research-informed setbacks from any new unconventional shale gas well:

• -- 3,281 feet from any building;
• -- 3,281 feet from any drinking water well;
• -- 5,280 feet from any building serving vulnerable populations (e.g., schools, daycare centers, hospitals); and
• -- 750 feet from any surface water of the Commonwealth.

“The gas industry has dangerously encroached on our daily lives over the last twenty years.” said Alex Bomstein, Clean Air Council Executive Director. “Now, nearly 1.5 million Pennsylvanians live within a half mile of fracking. The harm that fracking inflicts on communities is unacceptable and no one deserves to live with fracking in their backyard.”“The research is clear that too many Pennsylvanians have suffered a decline in their health, quality of life, and property values as a result of oil and gas companies fracking too close to buildings, wells, and waters,” said Lisa Hallowell, Senior Attorney with the Environmental Integrity Project. “Pennsylvania agencies have a constitutional duty to heed the overwhelming evidence and require minimum setbacks to protect the Commonwealth’s residents and natural resources from further peril.”“20 years of fracking in Pennsylvania has spawned 20 years of research showing convincingly that living and working near fracking increases the risk of developing health problems,” said Ned Ketyer, MD, President of Physicians for Social Responsibility Pennsylvania. “And the closer you are to fracking the higher the risk. Increasing buffers from the present to at least 2500 feet from homes and 5000 feet from schools, hospitals, and other public buildings is a small but necessary step to protect the health of Pennsylvanians living near fracking.”“Living a little over 500 feet from Range Resources Augustine well pad has, for the past 4 years, caused many issues for my family of five,” said Michele Stonewark, Cecil Township, Washington County. “We’ve suffered health issues including headaches, nausea, and bloody noses, sleepless nights due to noise and vibrations and increased stress and anxiety that compounds all of the other issues. There are days we can not go outside due to awful diesel and chemical smells and my children are forced to stay indoors. All the while, the landowners of the pad, are the furthest away from the threat we live with every day. The importance of setbacks is an issue that I will fight with all of my being, not just for my family's health but for the health of all families in this Commonwealth.” “We have 12 well pads and one compressor station planned for our residential community and thousands of residents have already been harmed,” said Gillian Graber, impacted resident and Executive Director of Protect PT, Westmoreland County. “After a decade of working to protect my community, I am tired of waiting for our government agencies, Governor Shapiro, and our legislators to act in the best interest for Pennsylvanians. That is why we need to force the issue with this rulemaking petition to protect us from a toxic industry whose sole motivation is to make money as quickly and cheaply as possible.”When Governor Shapiro was Attorney General, the primary recommendation of the 43rd Statewide Investigating Grand Jury’s report on fracking was to enact a 2,500 foot no-drill zone between fracking and homes, as well as a 5,000 foot no-drill zone for schools and hospitals. [Read more here.]In the fall of 2023, Governor Shapiro instructed the Department of Environmental Protection to implement some of the Grand Jury recommendations for better protecting Pennsylvania residents from oil and gas operations, but this notably did not include setbacks. Instead of asking the DEP to develop greater setbacks for the oil and gas industry, he announced a partnership with CNX - a gas company with a history of environmental violations - that included a promise to adhere to voluntary, unenforceable setbacks from homes and schools at distances well below those recommended by the Grand Jury, according to the groups. [Read more here.]Fracking contaminates groundwater (used for public and private drinking water supplies) and also pollutes surface water, impacting headwater streams and other ecosystems. Furthermore, spills often occur in watersheds linked to drinking water sources, according to the groups.Dozens of peer-reviewed scientific studies show that a person’s proximity to fracking wells is associated with severe human health risks and a wide range of ailments, including increased cancer rates, increased hospitalization rates, and higher rates of respiratory, neurological, dermatological, and muscular symptoms. Vulnerable populations are particularly susceptible—numerous studies have shown that proximity to fracking wells harms health for infants and children. In addition to these studies, first-hand accounts of residents living near Pennsylvania fracking wells demonstrate the profound harms of living in close proximity to fracking, the groups said.The petitioners argue in detail-- “Establishing setback requirements as outlined in this Petition would constitute a valid exercise of the EQB’s authority granted by the Oil and Gas Act, the Air Pollution Control Act, and the Clean Streams Law, discussed in this in turn. “Indeed, failing to act on this Petition would violate many statutory obligations imposed on the Board to abate pollution in the state and limit public exposure to environmental harms.”“The EQB is also obligated by the ERA [Environmental Rights Amendment to the state constitution] to advance the Commonwealth’s duties as trustee of Pennsylvania’s public natural resources— a constitutional mandate with which all statutory directives must comport—further necessitating action on this Petition.” Click Here for a copy of the rulemaking petition. DEP must now evaluate the petition to determine if it meets the requirements for the Environmental Quality Board to take action on the issues it raises.DEP must notify the petitioner within 30 days of a petition’s receipt if it meets the requirements, although it has taken much longer for other petitions.Among the specific requirements is a determination of whether the EQB has the statutory authority to take the action requested by the petitioners.

Leftist Enviro Groups Ask PA EQB to Ban Fracking via Bigger Setbacks-- Marcellus Drilling News - Yesterday, the radicalized Clean Air Council and Environmental Integrity Project filed a rulemaking petition with the Pennsylvania Environmental Quality Board (EQB) asking the EQB to increase minimum setback distances from fracked wells. Setbacks, also referred to as protective buffers and no-drill zones in the context of fracking, are mandatory distances that fracked wells must abide by to keep them away from homes, schools, hospitals, drinking water wells, and surface water. PA already has a safe and sufficient setback of 500 feet. The groups want that increased by 650% to 3,281 feet. It would ban approximately 95% of all new shale wells in the state.

Susquehanna River Basin Conditions Trigger Low-Flow Water Use Restrictions At 9 Shale Gas Water Withdrawals In Bradford, Susquehanna, Tioga CountiesOn October 19, the Susquehanna River Basin Commission Hydrologic Conditions Monitor shows low stream flows in some areas have triggered water withdrawal restrictions to water users, including 9 shale gas development water withdrawals.Five more shale gas water withdrawals in Bradford, Tioga and Wyoming counties are approaching water restrictions. Shale gas water withdrawals tend to get hit first with withdrawal restrictions because they are often located on smaller streams.The shale gas water withdrawals impacted so far are-- Bradford County

• -- Repsol Oil & Gas USA, LLC - Fall Brook, Bense - Troy Township
• -- Repsol Oil & Gas USA, LLC - Sugar Creek - West Burlington Township
• -- Repsol Oil & Gas USA, LLC - Wappasening Creek Antisdel - Windham Township

Susquehanna County

• -- BKV Operating, LLC - UNT to Middle Branch - Wyalusing Creek - Forest Lake Township
• -- BKV Operating, LLC - East Branch Wyalusing Creek - Jessup Township
• -- Repsol Oil & Gas USA, LLC - Choconut Creek - Choconut Township
• -- SWN Production Company, LLC - Tunkhannock Creek - Lenox Township

Tioga County

• -- Seneca Resources Company, LLC - Crooked Creek - Middlebury Township
• -- Seneca Resources Company, LLC - Elk Run - Sullivan Township

Water withdrawals with restrictions found on the Hydrologic Conditions Monitor can be looked up on SRBC’s Search for Projects webpage.Contact the Susquehanna River Basin Commission to report suspected violations of these requirements.For more information on programs, training opportunities and upcoming events, visit the Susquehanna River Basin Commission website. Click Here to sign up for SRBC’s newsletter. Follow SRBC on Twitter, visit them on YouTube.

NYC Dem Politicians, Radical Groups Seek to Jail Big Oil Execs - Marcellus Drilling News - What is happening in American politics is shocking. Unfortunately, we are so shocked almost daily that we’re (as a society) becoming numb to it. Never in the history of our country have the members of one political party sought to jail their political opponents. It’s happening now, and the party/movement in question comes from the left. Democrat elected officials in New York City and progressive advocacy groups are pushing New York City’s prosecutors to charge fossil fuel companies AND their executives with crimes for “reckless endangerment” for their supposed role in causing “climate change.” Never mind that the left can’t prove mankind is catastrophically causing global warming (which is what they mean by climate change). They seek to jail people who disagree with them. It’s astonishing.

US shale production may decline for first time since 2000 - U.S. shale gas production is on track for its first annual decrease in nearly 25 years, according to the Energy Department’s statistical arm.Total U.S. shale gas production from January through last month dropped by roughly 1 percent compared to the same time period last year, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in a research analysis Thursday. The agency attributed the dip in output to low natural gas prices, which prompted production declines in the Haynesville and Utica plays.Natural gas prices at the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub hit record lows in the first half of 2024, “making drilling natural gas wells less profitable, particularly in the Haynesville,” EIA said. Production in the Haynesville play, which covers parts of Texas and Louisiana, decreased by 12 percent during the first nine months of the year. The decrease was 10 percent in the Utica play, which crosses through New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia.

U.S. shale natural gas production has declined so far in 2024 - U.S. EIA - U.S. natural gas production from shale and tight formations, which accounts for 79% of dry natural gas production, decreased slightly in the first nine months of 2024 compared with the same period in 2023. If this trend holds for the remainder of 2024, it would mark the first annual decrease in U.S. shale gas production since we started collecting these data in 2000.Total U.S. shale gas production from January through September 2024 declined by about 1%, to 81.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), compared with the same period in 2023, while other U.S. dry natural gas production increased by about 6% to 22.1 Bcf/d. Total U.S. dry natural gas production from January through September 2024 averaged 103.3 Bcf/d, essentially flat compared with the same period in 2023. The decline in shale gas production so far this year has been driven primarily by declines in production in the Haynesville and Utica plays. From January through September 2024, shale gas production decreased by 12% (1.8 Bcf/d) in the Haynesville and by 10% (0.6 Bcf/d) in the Utica compared with the same period in 2023. At the same time, shale gas production in the Permian play grew by 10% (1.6 Bcf/d). Production in the Marcellus play, which leads U.S. shale gas production, remained flat.The Haynesville play in northeastern Texas and northwestern Louisiana is a dry natural gas formation. The Utica and Marcellus plays in theAppalachian Basin produce lease condensate in addition to dry natural gas. In all three plays, natural gas prices mostly drive drilling and developing wells. The U.S. benchmark Henry Hub daily natural gas price has generally declined since August 2022 and reached record lows in the first half of 2024, making drilling natural gas wells less profitable, particularly in the Haynesville. Several operators in the Haynesville and the Appalachian Basin shut in natural gas production in reaction to historically low prices and intend to continue curtailments in the second half of 2024.In contrast, natural gas produced in the Permian play in western Texas and southeastern New Mexico is primarily associated gas from oil wells where drilling and development is driven by the oil price. Natural gas production in the Permian has increased this year along with increasing oil production.Shale natural gas production in the Utica was 5.6 Bcf/d in September, 33% less than the monthly high of 8.3 Bcf/d in December 2019 and 10% less than the average of 6.2 Bcf/d in 2023. At depths of 5,000 feet to 11,000 feet, wells in the Utica, which lies beneath the Marcellus, are slightly more expensive to drill than Marcellus wells because of their depth. Drilling costs of Haynesville wells, at depths of 10,500 feet to 13,500 feet, are even higher. Shale natural gas production in the Haynesville was 13.0 Bcf/d in September 2024, 14% less than the peak in May 2023. The Haynesville is the third-largest shale gas-producing play in the United States, behind the Marcellus and the Permian plays. In 2023, shale natural gas production in the Haynesville averaged 14.6 Bcf/d, accounting for 14% of total U.S. dry natural gas production. The U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas price fell 79% from the August 2022 inflation-adjusted high of $9.39 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) to an average of $1.99/MMBtu in August 2024. So far this year, the price has averaged $2.10/MMBtu compared with an inflation-adjusted average of $6.89/MMBtu in 2022 and $2.62/MMBtu in 2023. As natural gas prices declined, the economics of producing natural gas in the dry gas formations worsened, leading producers to shut in production and drop drilling rigs.Producers tend to increase or decrease the number of drilling rigs in operation as natural gas prices fluctuate. The number of natural gas-directed drilling rigs in the Haynesville, Utica, and Marcellus plays has decreased steadily since the end of 2022, according to data fromBaker Hughes. In the Haynesville, an average of 33 rigs were in operation in September 2024, 53% fewer than in January 2023. The number of rigs operating in the Haynesville in September was the lowest it has been since July 2020. In the Utica, an average of seven rigs were operating in September 2024, fewer than half the number that were operating in January 2023, and in the Marcellus, an average of 25 rigs were in operation, about 36% fewer than in January 2023. Although the productivity of newer wells has improved in recent years, the decline in rig counts has contributed to an overall decrease in production.In our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, we forecast total U.S. dry natural gas production to average 103.5 Bcf/d in 2024, down slightly from 103.8 Bcf/d in 2023, and to resume modest growth in 2025 at 104.6 Bcf/d.

WV’s Hope Gas Seeks to End “Farm Taps” for 600 Customers - Marcellus Drilling News - It is just coming to light for us now that back in August, Hope Gas, a large local utility company that provides gas service to more than 131,000 residential, industrial, and commercial customers in thirty-seven West Virginia counties, filed a rate case with the state Public Service Commission (PSC) looking to convert customers who use a “farm tap” gas system to either propane fuel or electric heat for their homes. The change would affect around 600 customers, removing them from the ability to use local natural gas.

Kentucky Utilities Want to Build 2 New NatGas Power Plants -- Marcellus Drilling News - Kentucky has seen unprecedented economic growth in recent years like other southern states. Data centers are looking to Kentucky for future expansion. Louisville Gas and Electric Company (LG&E) and Kentucky Utilities Company (KU), both part of PPL Corporation, are forecasting in their Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) the need for additional power generation due to the expected influx of data centers and economic development across their service territories. The companies want to build two new natural gas combined-cycle generation units---one in 2030 and another in 2031.

AES Indiana Committed to Converting Last Coal Plants to NatGas -- Marcellus Drilling News - AES Indiana, formerly known as Indianapolis Power & Light Company, is a utility company providing electric service to the city of Indianapolis. It is a subsidiary and largest utility of AES Corporation. In August, AES Indiana said that it wants to invest $1.1 billion in Pike County, IN, to convert the company’s two remaining coal-fired power plants to run natural gas instead (see AES Indiana Spending $1.1B to Convert Last Coal Plants to NatGas). Unfortunately, the coal lobby has pressured some Republican politicians, including Indiana's Republican candidate for governor, into opposing the plan. However, AES remains committed.

Natural Gas ‘Clear Winner’ as LNG Contracts and Equipment Orders Rising, Says Baker Hughes Chief -An “all-of-the above strategy” will be needed to meet the world’s growing energy consumption, but “in our view,” nothing beats natural gas, Baker Hughes Co. CEO Lorenzo Simonelli said Wednesday. Bar chart showing Baker Hughes' primary energy demand outlook through 2040 with historical comparison. Displays a modest energy growth forecast in Million tons of barrels of oil equivalent. Speaking with investors during the third quarter conference call, Simonelli noted that renewables demand is expanding significantly, providing a pathway to lower emissions. However, solar, wind and other alternatives cannot match the pace of global demand, he said. Meanwhile, oil consumption is flattening. That said, “natural gas is a clear winner,” he said. “This is the age of gas. By 2040, we expect natural gas demand to grow by almost 20%, and global LNG demand to increase at an even faster rate of 75%.”

ExxonMobil, Qatar get 3-yr extension to build their LNG plant in Texas -- Federal regulators on Thursday gave an ExxonMobil and Qatar Energy LNG joint venture a 3-yr extension to finish building their Golden Pass LNG plant, a regulatory document showed. The extension was granted due to delays caused when lead construction contractor Zachry Holdings filed for bankruptcy in March, according to a Federal Energy Regulatory Commision filing. The project, at the Sabine Pass site of a former gas-import terminal that was converted to process natural gas for LNG exports, is one of two large U.S. LNG facilities whose startups were expected to significantly expand supplies from the world's top exporter of the superchilled fuel in the next 12 months. The project's original main contractor, Zachry Holdings filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, saying the Golden Pass project - known as GPX - was at least $2.4 B over the original budget. Golden Pass is yet to announce a new EPC contractor and has been in negotiations with McDermott International to be the lead contractor on the project.

NextDecade Looks to Avoid Rio Grande LNG ‘Death Spiral’ with DC Circuit Court Rehearing - Rio Grande LNG LLC and Texas LNG Brownsville LLC have requested a rehearing in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia (DC) Circuit over a decision the firms said would derail U.S. project development and create judicial contradictions. The liquefied natural gas export project developers on Monday filed requests seeking a full panel of judges in the DC Circuit to revisit the August order that vacated and remanded FERC authorizations for Rio Grande LNG, the Rio Bravo Pipeline project and Glenfarne Energy Transition LLC’s proposed Texas LNG project (Nos. 23-1175, 23-1222). In Rio Grande LNG’s appeal, lawyers argued that taking the added step of vacating FERC’s authorization of the $18.4 billion LNG project is not supported by federal law and threatens to tank the project despite the likelihood that the Commission would grant its approval of the project for a third time.

Sharp Drop in U.S. Feed Gas Deliveries Stokes Natural Gas Price Volatility — Feed gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export facilities have slipped noticeably this week, largely because of outages at the Cameron and Sabine Pass terminals in Louisiana. Natural Gas Intelligence's (NGI) LNG export flow tracker showing operational export facilities' daily feed gas demand. Overall, deliveries were down 14% on Thursday to 12.4 Bcf/d from week-ago levels, when they hit their highest point of the year at 14.4 Bcf on Oct. 17, according to NGI data. Unplanned maintenance started at the Cameron liquefied natural gas facility over the weekend, and one train is expected to be offline until Friday, Rystad Energy analyst Masanori Odaka said Thursday. It’s unclear why the train is offline. Roughly 250 MMcf/d was impacted Tuesday and Wednesday because of scheduled work on the Columbia Gas Transmission system that helps feed Cameron, according to Wood Mackenzie.

Natural Gas Price Relief Prospects Shrinking as LNG Startups Delayed -The already slim prospects of additional feed gas demand lifting natural gas prices this year could be narrowing as the startup of another U.S. LNG export facility appears at risk of slipping into 2025. Natural Gas Intelligence's (NGI) graph showing all North American operational and under construction LNG export facilities. Graph shows when new export capacity would come online based on market estimates. Global expansions of liquefied natural gas export capacity are limited until 2030, leaving international buyers to hone in on any projects that might be able to help ease supply volatility in the near term. Most of those anticipated projects are sited on the Gulf Coast. However, construction delays have pushed the ramp up of one major project, Golden Pass LNG, to at least the second half of next year. That could limit the chances of added feed gas demand to raise domestic prices.

US natgas prices climb 2% on lower output, higher demand forecasts (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 2% on Monday on lower output so far this month and forecasts for cooler weather and more heating demand next week than previously expected. Capping gains,meteorologists forecast mostly warmer weather through early November, which should limit gas demand. Front-month gas futures NGc1 for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 5.4 cents, or 2.4%, to settle at $2.312 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Thefront-month remained intechnically oversold territory for a fourth straight day for the first time since February.On Friday, the contract closed at its lowest since Sept. 10. With gas futures down 22% over the past three weeks, speculators last week cut their net long futures and options positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges for a second week in a row to their lowest since April, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report. Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states slipped to 101.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, down from 101.8 bcfd in September. That compares with a record 105.5 bcfd in December 2023. Analysts projected energy firms would cut output in calendar 2024 for the first time since 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic cut demand for the fuel. Prices have remained relatively low since the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low in March after many producers reduced drilling activities. Meteorologists projected temperatures in the Lower 48 states will remain mostly warmer than normal through Nov. 5. Despite those mild forecasts, it will be cooler with more heating demand in early November than this week. The average temperature in the Lower 48 states will drop to around 56 degrees Fahrenheit (13.3 Celsius) by Nov. 5, according to the latest forecasts, down from an average of 63 F now. That, however, is well above the normal average of 51 F in early November. With cooler weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 96.0 bcfd this week to 100.2 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday, while its forecast for next week was higher. The amount of gas flowing to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 13.1 bcfd so far in October, up from 12.7 bcfd in September. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. Gas prices were trading around $13 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia JKMc1. NG/EU

U.S. natgas prices jump 8% on cooler weather, higher global gas prices U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 8% to a one-week high on Thursday on forecasts for cooler weather and more heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected and on rising prices for gas in global markets that should boost the value of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. That price increase came despite a bearish bigger-than-expected weekly storage build that was also bigger than the five-year average for the first time in 15 weeks. Front-month gas futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 18.0 cents, or 7.7%, to settle at $2.522 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), their highest close since Oct. 11. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 80 Bft3 of gas into storage during the week ended Oct. 18. That was much bigger than the 60- Bft3 build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 81 Bft3 in the same week last year and a five-year (2019–2023) average rise of 76 Bft3 for this time of year. Lower injections in recent weeks came because many producers reduced drilling activities this year after average spot monthly prices at the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low in March. Prices have remained relatively low since then. Even though the latest forecasts were for lower temperatures than previously expected in coming weeks, meteorologists still expect the weather in the Lower 48 states to remain warmer than normal through at least Nov. 8. With cooler weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 95.1 Bft3d this week to 99.4 Bft3d next week. The forecast for this week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday. The amount of gas flowing to the seven big U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants rose to an average of 13.0 Bft3d so far in October, up from 12.7 Bft3d in September. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 Bft3d in December 2023. The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, ahead of recent leaders Australia and Qatar, as much higher global prices feed demand for more exports due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Gas prices climbed to a 10-month high over $13 per MMBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and a five-week high near $14 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia.

US natgas prices climb 2% to 2-week high on lower output, soaring global gas prices (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures climbed about2% to a two-week high on Friday on lower output so far this month and a jump in global gas prices that could boost demand for more U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. Earlier in the session, U.S. gas futures were down on forecasts for mild weather through early November that should keep U.S. heating demand low and allow utilities to inject more gas into U.S. storage than is usual for this time of year. Front-month gas futures NGc1 for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 3.8 cents, or 1.5%, to settle at $2.560 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since Oct. 11 for a second day in a row.That put the front-month up about 13% this week after it fell about 22% over the prior three weeks. Analysts projected utilities were on track to inject more gas into storage this week than normal for a second week in a row for the first time since October 2023. Prior to last week, injections had been smaller than usual for 14 weeks in a row because many producers so far this year have reduced drilling activities after average spot monthly prices at the U.S. Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low in March. Prices have remained relatively low since then. NGAS/POLL HH/GAS Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states slipped to 101.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, down from 101.8 bcfd in September. That compares with a record 105.5 bcfd in December 2023. With so many firms curtailing drilling activities, analysts have projected that average output in calendar 2024 will decline for the first time since 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic cut demand for the fuel. The reduction in drilling activities was clear in Pennsylvania where drillers this week cut the number of rigs operating by one to a total of just 12, the lowest since July 2007, according to data from energy services firm Baker Hughes. Meteorologists projected the weather in the Lower 48 states would remain warmer than normal through at least Nov. 9. But even warmer than normal weather in early November is cooler than warmer than normal weather in late October. So, with seasonally cooler weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 95.4 bcfd this week to 99.2 bcfd next week and 102.4 bcfd in two weeks. The amount of gas flowing to the seven big U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants rose to an average of 13.0 bcfd so far in October, up from 12.7 bcfd in September. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. Analysts have noted that overall LNG feedgas will likely remain below record levels for at least a couple more weeks while some firms conduct maintenance on their plants in Louisiana, including Cheniere Energy LNG.N at Sabine and Cameron LNG at Cameron. Gas prices climbed to a 10-month high near $14 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and a six-week high also near $14 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia JKMc1.

Kinder Morgan Sanctions GCX Pipeline Expansion as LNG, Mexico Exports Seen Driving Natural Gas Demand Surge – -Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI) is moving ahead with a $455 million, 570 MMcf/d expansion of the Gulf Coast Express (GCX) natural gas pipeline serving the Permian Basin that could be in service by mid-2026, management said Wednesday. The expansion “will enable our customers who have signed long-term throughput agreements to move substantial additional gas” out of the Permian, said Executive Chairman Richard Kinder Wednesday during the Houston-based midstreamer’s third quarter earnings call. The project is designed to increase natural gas deliveries from the Permian to the Agua Dulce hub in South Texas.

Could the U.S. Election Have Ripple Effects on Natural Gas Trade Into Mexico? -The upcoming U.S. election between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is being watched closely by those involved in the burgeoning natural gas trade that crosses the border. Bar chart showing yearly value of U.S.-Mexico energy trade. The value of all energy trade between the United States and Mexico was $66.5 billion in 2023, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). This was down from $77.8 billion in 2022, adjusted for inflation, principally because of lower fuel prices that offset the increase in the volume of energy trade between the two countries. The U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas price averaged $2.57/MMBtu in 2023, about a 62% drop from the 2022 averages, according to EIA. This year, gas prices also have remained low. NGI’s spot Henry Hub daily natural gas price has averaged $2.124 through Tuesday, according to Daily Historical Data.

U.S. LNG Exports to Asia Continue Outpacing European Deliveries -- U.S LNG exports to Europe have declined this year as renewable energy output on the continent reached a record high and intense heat in Asia has found more cargoes heading toward the Pacific Basin. Bar graph showing U.S. LNG exports to the world by country. U.S. exports to Europe fell to 33 million tons (Mt) from January to September, down from nearly 57 Mt during the same period last year, as wind and solar power reached a 30% record share of European power generation, overtaking fossil fuels for the first time During the first four months of 2024, Europe remained the top destination for U.S. exports, but more U.S. cargoes sold to Asia from May to August due to extreme summer temperatures in India, China and South Korea.

Corpus Christi Is Now The World’s Third-Largest Oil Export Port -Soaring U.S. oil exports have made Corpus Christi the world’s third-largest crude export terminal as ports in the U.S. Gulf Coast are shipping growing volumes of American energy to the international markets, including crude oil, fuels, and LNG. The Port of Corpus Christi has just announced record-high volumes moved through the Corpus Christi Ship Channel, thanks to rising shipments of crude oil.The port currently handles more than half of all U.S. crude oil exports and is also the top LNG point of export. Corpus Christi is expanding and deepening the shipping channel to accommodate very large crude carriers (VLCCs) and more traffic, with the port “Moving America’s Energy,” as the port officials say.Total U.S. crude oil exports have jumped to more than 4 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, perEIA data, up from just 400,000 bpd before the Obama administration repealed 2015 the ban on American crude oil exports. Before 2016, U.S. crude was exported only to Canada. After the ban was lifted, crude oil from the United States was allowed to flow to overseas markets. Since then, America’s crude has become a key commodity in the global oil market.Surging U.S. crude exports, particularly WTI Midland, have dominated global markets in recent months, with record export volumes and a significant portion being sent to Europe.U.S. exports soared after the U.S. allowed crude oil exports and after midstream operators seized the opportunity to build pipelines in Texas and Louisiana, leading to the U.S. Gulf Coast export terminals.So influential has U.S. oil become that WTI Midland was included last year in the Dated Brent part of the Brent benchmark as one of several grades underpinning the contract.The Port of Corpus Christi has played an important role in helping U.S. crude gain international prominence. It now exports between 2.3 million bpd and 2.4 million bpd of crude, 99% of which goes to foreign markets.Since the U.S. lifted the export ban, Corpus Christi’s crude oil exports have soared 17 times, TJ Gonzalez, the port’s commercial and business development manager, told FreightWaves this month.“It’s what has put us on the map, being the No. 3 export gateway for crude oil in the world,” Gonzalez added.

Phillips 66 plans to cease operations at Los Angeles-area refinery in Q4 2025 --Phillips 66 plans to cease operations at its Los Angeles-area refinery in the fourth quarter of 2025 and will work with the state of California to supply fuel markets and meet ongoing consumer demand.The Los Angeles Refinery consists of two facilities linked by pipeline located five miles apart in Carson and Wilmington, California, approximately 15 miles southeast of Los Angeles. The Carson facility serves as the front end of the refinery by processing crude oil, and the Wilmington facility serves as the back end of the refinery by upgrading the intermediate products to finished products. Carson is 235 acres (approx.) and the Wilmington facility is 424 acres (approx.).Refinery facilities include crude distillation, naphtha reforming, fluid catalytic cracking, alkylation, hydrocracking, and delayed coking units. The refinery produces a high percentage of transportation fuels. The refinery produces California Air Resources Board (CARB)-grade gasoline. Other products produced include fuel-grade petroleum coke. Refined petroleum products are distributed to customers in California, Nevada and Arizona by pipeline and truck. Gasolines production capacity is 85 thousand barrels per day (MBD) and distillates production is 65 MBD.With the long-term sustainability of our Los Angeles Refinery uncertain and affected by market dynamics, we are working with leading land development firms to evaluate the future use of our unique and strategically located properties near the Port of Los Angeles. Phillips 66 remains committed to serving California and will continue to take the necessary steps to meet our commercial and customer demands.—Mark Lashier, chairman and CEO of Phillips 66. As the California Energy Commission’s analysis has indicated, expanding supply capabilities will be critical. Phillips 66 supports these efforts and will work with California to maintain current levels and potentially increase supplies to meet consumer needs. The company will supply gasoline from sources inside and outside its refining network as well as renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuels from its Rodeo Renewable Energy Complex in the San Francisco Bay area.Phillips 66 has engaged Catellus Development Corporation and Deca Companies, two leading real estate development firms, to evaluate the future use of the 650-acre sites in Wilmington, California, and Carson, California. The firms bring strong track records of solving complex redevelopment challenges and will collaborate with Phillips 66 in an advisory role to advance potential commercial development options that support the regional economy and other key stakeholder objectives.

Brazil’s Drought-Driven LNG Demand Ups Global Natural Gas Supply Anxiety Natural gas buyers in Latin America, and especially in drought-stricken Brazil, are adding global competition for LNG cargoes and upward pressure on spot prices. Latin American countries are expected to draw in more than 1 million tons (Mt) by the end of October, with more than half of those volumes coming from the United States, according to Kpler data. Brazil is expected to receive 0.35 Mt by the end of the month, a more than 37% increase over the same period last year. “Over the last few months, Brazil has stepped up liquefied natural gas imports to offset a steep drop-off in hydropower generation brought on by an intense drought,” Kpler researchers wrote in a recent note.

Japanese LNG Buyers Seek Supply Flexibility Amid Growing Global Price Volatility - Major Japanese energy firms, some of the largest private buyers of LNG in the world, are looking to the government to help negotiate more supply contract terms without destination clauses. Bar graph showing Japan's LNG imports since 2020. Traditionally, contracts with destination restrictions have prevented gas buyers from delivering or selling cargoes to recipients in other markets, allowing major liquefied natural gas sellers to avoid competing with themselves. Currently, Japan consumes nearly two-thirds of LNG imports and resells one-third in the global market. As Japan reduces the share of natural gas in its power generation, traders will be looking for more options to send cargoes secured under long-term contracts to other markets when they aren’t needed domestically. Japanese energy firms want the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) to help them negotiate contracts.

A 'tidal wave' of LNG supply will reshape global markets, says RBC Capital - The biggest influx of liquified natural gas (LNG) supply is coming online and it will transform the global market, bringing about wide and enduring effects, said RBC Capital Markets. "A wave of new LNG supply —the biggest yet— is set to reshape the global market in the coming years, with broader implications than prior growth given increasing inter-linkages between regional gas markets following the Russia-Ukraine conflict," analysts from the investment bank wrote in a note. The supply injection is likely to thrust the market into an extended period of oversupply by the end of 2026, which will remain until 2030, with prices possibly moving below double-digits, analysts such as RBC's Anan Dhanani have projected. Futures for the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) hub, a European benchmark for natural gas transactions, were trading at $12.78 per mmbtu on Wednesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Throughout the year, a growing chorus of analysts have warned that tepid demand growth coupled with looming waves of export capacity could lead to a massively oversupplied market. As a stream of planned infrastructure continues to flood the market, it's unclear if demand will increase to absorb each wave. Oversupply and depressed prices underscore the bearish sentiments in the LNG sector, said Rystad Energy senior analyst Masanori Odaka. Suppliers are now increasingly prioritizing LNG used for shipping utilization over arbitrage opportunities, i.e. profit margins. Commodity arbitrage involves the simultaneous or sequential buying and selling of commodities across different markets to profit from the price difference. Global LNG trade has doubled in the last decade, growing from around 240 metric ton in 2014 to more than 400 metric ton last year, largely caused by the disruption of Russian pipeline gas to Europe, according to RBC Capital. Some had perceived the geopolitical risk as an opportunity in the market. The investment bank projected that global liquefaction capacity, the total amount of LNG that can be produced annually, will grow by around 50% by the end of the decade. The U.S. and Qatar will hold onto their position as the world's biggest suppliers, with a combined market share of almost 50% in 2030, RBC added. Many private companies and state-owned entities have plans to boost capacity, "not only to backstop European consumption but to also capture an expected growth in consumption rates, particularly in Asia," RBC's analysts said. But demand from the Asia-Pacific region, the biggest importer of LNG, is only expected grow by an average of 5% annually. Around 70% of this growth will stem from China, India and South Korea. Meanwhile, LNG prices have not seen major fluctuations despite escalating geopolitical tensions. "Surprisingly quiet" was how Meg O'Neill, managing director and CEO of Woodside Energy, described the market. "For me, maybe that's a sign that there's sufficient supply sources around the world to help mitigate any temporary supply disruption coming out of the Middle East. And that's probably true for both oil and LNG," O'Neill told CNBC on the sidelines of the annual Singapore International Energy Week conference. There are other looming challenges to the LNG sector that could affect global markets. The 2024-25 Northern Hemisphere winter is in sight and existing contracts of Russian gas deliveries to Europe through Ukraine are set to expire at the end of 2024, the International Energy Agency pointed out. "This could mean an end to all piped gas deliveries to Europe from Russia through Ukraine," the IEA wrote in a recent note.. "This in turn would require higher LNG imports into Europe next year, resulting in a tighter global gas balance."

EU's Reliance on Russian LNG Is Growing -Russian LNG accounted for 20% of the EU’s liquefied natural gas imports in the first nine months of 2024, compared to 14% for the same period last year, amid markedly lower EU imports of the super-chilled fuel, a new report by the EU Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) showed on Tuesday.While the Russian LNG share of the EU’s total LNG imports grew, it was a share of a smaller pie. In the third quarter of 2024 alone, EU imports of LNG slumped by 23% compared to a year earlier, ACER, the EU regulator, said in the report.“As demand from other LNG importing regions increased, an otherwise balanced European gas market saw EU buyers shy away from competing for higher priced spot cargoes,” the report read.In the coming weeks, deliveries of LNG into Europe are set to increase with the start of peak gas consumption season, it added.Despite the lower LNG imports so far this year, the rising share of Russia’s LNG in EU supply comes as a concern for several EU member states that have been pushing for ways to curb Europe’s reliance on Russian LNG cargoes.Belgium is seeking a ban on Russian LNG imports into the European Union as the current sanctions regime cannot halt rising imports at EU import terminals, Belgian Energy Minister, Tinne Van der Straeten, told the Financial Times last month.Belgium – alongside the Netherlands, Spain, and France – has been one of the top importers of Russian LNG in recent months, especially after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the cutoff of many EU gas customers from Russian pipeline gas.Meanwhile, Europe’s natural gas prices increased over the second and third quarters of 2024 but remained marginally lower and considerably less volatile than last year, ACER said in its report.“Greater availability of Norwegian supply, a comfortable storage position and continued tepid European demand acted as counterweights to a tighter global LNG market due to rising global gas demand, geopolitical tensions and the growing precariousness of residual imports of Russian gas transited via Ukraine,” the watchdog noted.The EU’s natural gas storage is already at 95% full, data from Gas Infrastructure Europe show, after the bloc reached in August its target to have 90% full storage well ahead of its self-imposed binding deadline, November 1.

US Tightens Grip on Russia's LNG Exports - The U.S. is stepping up efforts to curb Russia's LNG exports as part of its broader strategy to cut off funds supporting Moscow's war in Ukraine. According to Geoffrey Pyatt, U.S. Assistant Secretary for Energy Resources, the aim is clear: reduce Russia's revenue from oil and gas. This push has included sanctions on Russia's Arctic LNG 2 plant, which has been particularly effective in stopping tankers from reaching foreign ports due to fears of U.S. retaliation. Located in the Gydan Peninsula in the Arctic, the Arctic LNG 2 project was considered key to Russia's efforts to boost its global LNG market share from 8% to 20% by 2030-2035. Arctic LNG 2 has been basically on ice since the U.S. imposed in November 2023 fresh sanctions on the Russian project. As a result, foreign shareholders suspended participation in Arctic LNG 2, effectively withdrawing from the financing of the project and for offtake contracts for the new plant.While the Arctic LNG 2 facility has faced restrictions, Russia's other LNG projects, such as Yamal and Portovaya, continue to operate and deliver fuel to Europe and Asia. Sanctioning these facilities would further tighten global LNG supply, which could drive prices up—a move the U.S. is closely monitoring.Pyatt emphasized that the U.S. will continue to "tighten the screws" on Russia's LNG flows, though he stopped short of revealing specific future sanctions. The U.S., as the largest supplier of LNG, enjoys greater flexibility in the market, making it easier to implement these restrictions while keeping supply stable."What I can tell you is that we're paying very, very close attention to where sanctioned Russian cargoes are heading, and you can be assured that the Biden administration is going to continue to tighten the screws against Russia's LNG exports," Pyatt said.The targeted approach against Russia's LNG exports has been one of Washington's rare successes in hindering Russian commodity flows. However, any additional moves against Russia's other LNG facilities will require a careful balance, as they could impact global energy markets and potentially push prices higher.

Russia's Crude Oil Exports Hit Four-Month High - Russian crude oil exports by sea continue to rise as heavy domestic refinery maintenance leaves more crude available for export.Russia exported on average 3.47 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude in the four weeks to October 20, up by 140,000 bpd compared to the four-week average to October 13, tanker-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg showed on Tuesday.The four-week average to October 20 was the highest export level for Russia since the end of June, according to the data reported by Bloomberg’s Julian Lee.At the same time, refining rates at Russian crude processing facilities are on track to decline to their lowest level for more than two years, since May 2022, per Bloomberg’s estimates.The rise in Russian crude shipments was attributed to a surge in crude volumes heading to Asia, the region which now takes nearly all, 95%, of Russia’s crude. Shipments to Asia surged to the highest levels in over five months, according to the data compiled by Bloomberg.Due to the increase in export volumes, the gross value of Russia’s observed crude shipments increased to $1.59 billion per week in the four weeks to October 20, up from $1.52 billion a week in the previous four-week period. This was the highest average weekly gross value since the middle of August.Russia has raised the refining capacity volumes it expects to be idle this month by 67% compared to an earlier plan, due to scheduled maintenance at major refineries, Reuters estimates showed earlier this month.In October, Russia expects to have 4.0 million metric tons of refining capacity offline, per Reuters’s calculations based on figures provided by industry sources. While that’s lower than the idle capacity in September, at 4.5 million tons, it is still higher than previously planned.Previously postponed maintenance at Rosneft’s Novokuibyshevsk Refinery in southwestern Russia and maintenance at a unit of Lukoil’s NORSI refinery have now increased the capacity that would be offline in October, thus leaving more crude for exports.

Bipartisan House members call for tighter sanctions on oil field servicers in Russia - A bipartisan coalition of more than 50 congressional representatives called on the Biden administration to tighten sanctions on Russian oil and specifically address a major U.S. oil field servicer’s presence in Russia. In the letter, led by Reps. Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas) and Jake Auchincloss (D-Mass.), the members asked Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Secretary of State Antony Blinken to restrict activity by the firm SLB (aka Schlumberger) in Russia after the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Since the invasion, they wrote, SLB has imported millions of dollars worth of equipment into Russia, including hydraulic packers and drilling tools. At least $3 million of the equipment SLB has imported into Russia in the final five months of 2023 falls into categories that should be subject to international controls if exported from the U.S. or Europe, they wrote. “This U.S.-based company is keeping Vladimir Putin’s war machine well-oiled with financing for the barbaric invasion of Ukraine. We urge you to continue supporting our Ukrainian allies by pursuing more rigorous oil sanctions to effectively restrict Putin’s profits,” the members wrote. “In concert with our allies in the [Group of Seven], we must tighten oil sanctions to prevent the billions in revenue currently flowing into the Kremlin’s budget. Permitting Western investment in the oil and gas sector strengthens Russia’s wartime economy and its military strength.” The representatives asked Yellen and Blinken to clarify whether SLB is aware of “where the guard rails are” regarding sanctions, as a State Department official has reportedly said it is. They also questioned whether the current sanctions program is effective in its goals if it allows an arrangement where American companies can import equipment into Russia from third nations, and they requested a list of all approved exceptions to American sanctions.

Investigation under way after Shell oil pipeline leak in Singapore | Upstream -- Operator assessing the volumes spilt into offshore waters.

Tons of Slop: Shell Scrambles After Major Oil Leak in Singapore Waters --Shell has confirmed an oil leak from a pipeline at its Shell Energy and Chemicals Park Singapore on Pulau Bukom island, with approximately 30-40 metric tonnes of slop–a mixture of oil and water–leaking into the water. The incident, which occurred at around 5:30 a.m. on October 20, 2024, prompted a swift emergency response to contain the spill in the East Johor Strait, within Singapore’s waters. Despite Shell’s quick response, oil sheens were detected in the water channel between Pulau Bukom Besar and Bukom Kecil by late morning. Shell deployed containment booms and anti-pollution crafts, and used dispersants to break up the oil slick. Shell said it is coordinating its efforts with the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) as well as other relevant agencies to mitigate the spill’s impact. Fortunately, no injuries have been reported. “Our priority is to ensure the safety of people and to limit environmental impact as we work on resolving this as quickly as possible,” Shell said in an official statement. The company also expressed appreciation for the cooperation of the authorities and local communities in assisting with the clean-up operations. MPA deployed seven craft equipped with dispersants together with craft from its contractor Singapore Salvage Engineers. It also deployed additional precautions to safeguard Singapore’s key ecological areas. As of October 21, no oil has been detected at sensitive locations, including Sentosa, Sisters’ Islands Marine Park, Labrador Nature Reserve, and East Coast Park. However, preemptive measures, including the deployment of oil absorbent booms, have been taken to protect these biodiversity-sensitive coastlines. Oil containment booms have also been installed near the seawater intake of Singapore’s desalination plants at Jurong Island and Marina East. The Public Utilities Board (PUB) is closely monitoring water quality, and operations at the plants have not been affected by the spill. As a precaution, the PUB has additionally installed containment booms at the Marina Barrage. The leak has raised concerns among businesses and waterfront companies in the area. Authorities have advised companies on Jurong Island and in the western region to take precautionary measures. While there have been no reports of oil sightings affecting local fish farms, the Singapore Food Agency remains in contact with farm operators to ensure vigilance in the coming days. Shell has also informed authorities in Indonesia and Malaysia to monitor for any potential oil sightings along their coastlines, though no cross-border impacts have been reported so far.

HazardEx - Oil leak at Shell Energy and Chemical Park Singapore has stopped -Energy major Shell has confirmed that around 30-40 metric tonnes of slop, a mixture of oil and water, leaked from a pipeline at the Shell Energy and Chemicals Park on Bukom island in Singapore on 20 October. No one was injured in the incident and operations were unaffected, however the company said it was taking steps to clean up a spill in a nearby water channel. Shell said in a statement that the leak occurred at around 05:30 local time from a land-based pipeline. The leak was stopped at around 15:00 although oil sheens were detected in the water channel between the Bukom Besar and Kechil islands. Shell said it had activated emergency response specialists to help manage the situation. There are no injuries reported and relevant authorities were informed, the energy major added. The company said it had deployed containment booms, anti-pollution crafts and spraying of dispersant to contain and break up the oil as part of on-going clean-up effort. An estimated 30-40 metric tonnes of slop leaked into the sea in total. Shell sold its Singaporean refinery and petrochemical plants in early May to a joint venture between Indonesian petrochemical company Chandra Asri and trading house Glencore. The sale is expected to be completed before the end of 2024.

IOCL plugs oil leakage at Paradip -- The IndianOil has issued a clarification over recent reports regarding crude oil leakage from its underground pipeline in Paradip. According to the clarification issued by GM (Corporate Communications), Eastern Region, Indian Oil Corporation Limited on the evening of October 20th, 2024, a leakage was detected in Jetty Pipeline at a spot near Nehru Bungalow, which is under repair since few months. The leakage was spotted while testing the repaired portion of the pipeline with all safety measures in place. As soon as the leakage was detected IOCL maintenance team present at the site immediately swung into action to arrest the leakage. Further, the spilled furnace oil was salvaged through Mobile Oil Spill Recovery Unit (MOSRU) prior to cleaning the area. The pipeline was continuously monitored during the night of 20th/ 21st October 2024 to identify further leakages throughout the jetty line. No further leakages were found at any other place. IndianOil has taken immediate action to address these operational concerns. There has been no ingress of any spilled oil to water bodies/mangroves affecting the marine life. The clarification stated that IndianOil remains committed to the safety and security of its operations and the safety of local communities. IOCL has stated that it will continue to take necessary measures to prevent such operational incidents in future.

Ennore oil spill: TNPCB demands Rs 74 crore compensation from CPCL - The Tamil Nadu Pollution Control Board (TNPCB) on Thursday demanded Rs 74 crore compensation from the Chennai Petroleum Corporation Limited (CPCL) for the 2023 oil spill in Ennore. The TNPCB made the demand when the National Green Tribunal (NGT) Southern Bench, was hearing a suo motu case related to the spill, allegedly caused by CPCL. It stated that the oil spill caused significant damage to the ecologically sensitive Ennore Creek and Kosathaliyar River, severely affecting the livelihoods of hundreds of fishermen. During the hearing, the TNPCB revealed that a committee constituted by the board had determined the compensation to be Rs 74 crore. Of this amount, Rs 35.43 crore would be allocated to address the socio-economic damages, while Rs 38.24 crore would be set aside for environmental damages. The NGT bench, comprising judicial member Justice Pushpa Sathyanarayana and expert member Satyagopal Karalapati, directed the government counsel and other parties to submit their reports and objections during the second hearing scheduled for January 24. The Tamil Nadu government had commissioned a study on the Ennore oil spill by IIT-Madras and the National Institute of Oceanography (NIO), Goa. According to the IIT-Madras report, the flooding of open tanks at CPCL during the floods was suspected as the primary source of the oil spill. The report estimated that the oil spill ranged between 647 cubic metres (or 517 tonnes) and 3,212 cubic metres (or 2,569 tonnes). The lower figure of 517 tonnes is a conservative estimate, while 3,212 cubic metres (2,569 tonnes) represents a less conservative assessment. The Tamil Nadu Water Resources Department (WRD) has accused CPCL of deliberately leaking oil through its pipelines during the monsoon periods. The WRD claimed that oil floating on the surface of the Buckingham Canal was visual evidence of this. They also argued that CPCL takes advantage of the monsoon’s dilution effect on the canal to release oil deliberately. The WRD urged the TNPCB to ensure that no such environmental hazards occur in the future and called for stricter enforcement against CPCL to prevent deliberate oil leaks.

Saudi Oil Export Revenue Slumps to Lowest in Over 3 Years | Rigzone -- Saudi Arabia’s revenue from oil exports has slumped to the lowest in more than three years as sluggish demand growth weighs on crude prices. Income from the sale of crude oil and refined products dropped to $17.4 billion in August, a 6% slide from the previous month, according to the state statistics agency. That’s the lowest level of monthly revenue since June 2021. The Saudi economy is still largely dependent on oil income for growth, even more so now that the country has embarked on an ambitious plan to expand its technology, tourism and manufacturing industries. The massive investment required to realize Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s plan to transform the economy relies on oil revenue to fund initiatives aimed at decreasing reliance on income from hydrocarbons. That effort has been complicated by falling oil prices and lower production. Global benchmark Brent crude is down about 1% this year and is trading around $75 a barrel. Growth in oil consumption has been sluggish, particularly in China, one of the most important import markets, while new supply from countries like the US — now the world’s top producer — is outpacing demand growth and weighing on prices. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies have been restricting output to prop up the market. That’s limited the amount of crude that Saudi Arabia, the leader of the alliance, can sell. The wider OPEC+ group, which includes producers like Russia, is set to roll back some of those cuts in December, though it’s left the door open to keeping those limits in place if needed to avoid oversupply. Oil is down 3% since the end of August.

Goldman Sachs Sees Limited Upside for Oil Prices in 2025 -Oil prices are expected to average $76 per barrel next year amid sufficient supply and ample spare capacity, according to Goldman Sachs.“Overall, we still see the medium-term risks to our $70-85/bbl range as two-sided but skewed moderately to the downside on net as downside price risks from high spare capacity and potentially broader trade tariffs outweigh upside price,” the investment bank’s analysts wrote in a note carried by Reuters.Oil prices are currently close to Goldman’s call for next year. Early on Wednesday, Brent Crude prices were down by over 1% to $74.60. The U.S. benchmark price, WTI Crude, was holding onto the $70 a barrel handle, trading down 1.8% to $70.40, after the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported late on Tuesday a crude inventory build that was larger than expected.By the end of this year, oil prices could rise due to what Goldman’s analysts described as Brent time spreads “underpricing physical tightness somewhat.” “Despite large global spare capacity and so far undisrupted Iran oil production, we don't think that a 2025 supply glut is a done deal,” Goldman analysts warned.They currently see the geopolitical risk premium as limited, but cautioned that the unresolved conflict in the Middle East could inflame the war risk premium and oil prices at any time.Two months ago, Goldman Sachs reduced its expected range for Brent by $5 to $70-$85 per barrel, citing weaker Chinese oil demand, high inventories, and rising U.S. shale production.Higher supply from America, and possibly from OPEC+ later this year and in 2025, has led Goldman Sachs to forecast that Brent Crude prices would average below $80 per barrel next year.Morgan Stanley has also recently revised its oil price forecasts downward, reflecting expectations of increased supply from OPEC and non-OPEC producers amid signs of weakening global demand. The bank now anticipates that while the crude oil market will remain tight through the third quarter, it will begin to stabilize in the fourth quarter and potentially move into a surplus by 2025.

Oil Prices Gain 2% After China Boosts Stimulus Measures - Oil markets have kicked off the new week on a strong footing with oil prices climbing after Chinese banks adopted extra stimulus measuresin a bid to spur economic growth. Brent crude for December delivery gained 2.01% to trade at $74.53 per barrel at 13.53 pm ET, while WTI crude for November delivery was up 2.61% to trade at $71.03 per barrel. Last month, the PBOC cut banks' reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points and the benchmark seven-day reverse repo rate by 20 basis points, the most aggressive stimulus since the pandemic. Chinese banks built on that on Monday by cutting their benchmark lending rates by a more than-expected 25 bp, a move expected to stimulate economic growth and boost energy demand by the world’s largest oil importer. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was lowered to 3.10% from 3.35%, surpassing expectations of a 20-bp cut while the five-year LPR was lowered to 3.60% from 3.85%, also higher than expectations of a 20-bp cut. Weak oil demand by China has been playing a major role in the ongoing bearish sentiment in oil markets. Bloomberg estimates that total Chinese oil demand this year (Jan-Sep) is down -3.8% y/y to 13.99 million bpd.Last week, the oil price rally reversed again thanks to a bearish economic report coming from China. China’s inflation data for September showed that consumer prices increased by a modest 0.4%, falling short of economist expectations of 0.6%. This marked the slowest price increase in three months, Reuters noted in its report. Whereas lower consumer prices are normally considered bullish for oil prices, the experts are interpreting China’s slowing inflation as a reflection of weaker demand that will continue to weaken as inflation slows.“China faces persistent deflationary pressure due to weak domestic demand. The change of fiscal policy stance as indicated by the press conference yesterday (Saturday) would help to deal with such problems,” the chief economist of Hong Kong-based Pinpoint Asset Management told Reuters.

The Market Remains Concerned Over the Expectation of an Israeli Retaliatory Attack -- The oil market posted an inside trading day on Monday as it retraced some of the previous week’s losses amid the continuing geopolitical tension in the Middle East. The market remains concerned over the expectation of an Israeli retaliatory attack on Iran. The market posted a low of $69.00 in overnight trading before it bounced off its low and retraced most of Friday’s losses amid escalated fighting in the Middle East, with Israel stepping up its operations against Palestinian militants in the Gaza Strip and carrying out targeted strikes on sites belonging to Hezbollah’s financial arm in Lebanon. The crude market rallied to a high of $71.03 in afternoon trading. The November WTI contract erased some of its gains ahead of the close and settled up $1.34 at $70.56. The December Brent contract settled up $1.23 at $74.29. Meanwhile, the product markets ended the session in higher territory, with the heating oil market settling up 3.11 cents at $2.1833 and the RB market settling up 1.27 cents at $2.0147. The head of the IEA, Fatih Birol, said China’s oil demand growth is expected to remain weak in 2025 despite recent stimulus measures from China as the country electrifies its car fleet and the economy grows at a slower pace. The IEA Executive Director said China, which has accounted for more than 60% of global oil demand growth in the last decade when its economy grew at 6.1% on average, is slowing down. He said Chinese oil demand would have been flat this year if not for petrochemicals. He added that another factor capping oil prices is the increase of supply from non-OPEC producers, the U.S., Canada, Brazil and Guyana, which is higher than global oil demand growth. Axios reported, citing two U.S. officials and two Israeli officials, that Israel gave the United States a document last week with its conditions for a diplomatic solution to end the war in Lebanon. It reported that Israel has demanded its IDF forces be allowed to engage in “active enforcement” to make sure Hezbollah doesn’t rearm and rebuild its military infrastructure close to the border. Israel also demanded its air force have freedom of operation in Lebanese air space. A U.S. official told Axios it was highly unlikely that Lebanon and the international community would agree to Israel’s conditions. The State Department said U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will make another push for a ceasefire when he heads to the Middle East on Monday, seeking to begin negotiations to end the Gaza war and also defuse the spillover conflict in Lebanon. It said the U.S. Secretary of State will discuss with regional leaders the importance of ending the war in Gaza, ways to create a post-conflict plan for the Palestinian enclave, and how to reach a diplomatic solution to the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to have about 819,000 barrels per day of capacity offline in the week ending Oct. 25, raising available refining capacity by 192,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 599,000 bpd in the week ending November 1st.

Oil prices rise nearly 2%, recovers some of last week's 7% decline (Reuters) - Oil prices settled nearly 2% higher on Monday, recouping some of last week's more than 7% decline, with no letup of fighting in the Middle East and expected Israeli retaliation on Iran worrying markets about supply from the region. Brent crude futures were up $1.23, or 1.68%, at $74.29 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were $1.34, or 1.94% higher, at $70.56 a barrel.Brent settled more than 7% lower last week, while WTI lost around 8%. Those were the contracts' biggest weekly declines since Sept. 2, due to slowing economic growth in China and falling risk premiums in the Middle East.Israeli forces besieged hospitals and shelters for displaced people in the northern Gaza Strip on Monday, medics said, as they stepped up operations against Palestinian militants. Israel also carried out targeted strikes on sites belonging to Hezbollah's financial arm in Lebanon.U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will make another push for a ceasefire when he heads to the Middle East on Monday, the State Department said, seeking to kick-start negotiations to end the Gaza war and also defuse the spillover conflict in Lebanon.U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein will hold talks with Lebanese officials in Beirut on Monday on conditions for a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, two sources told Reuters."Crude futures getting a lift this morning as escalated fighting continues in Middle East... Israel is also preparing for more retaliatory attacks likely into Iran," said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial."The sell-off in crude over the past two weeks was mostly on long liquidation as the crude market continues to search for an equilibrium between slowing demand and continued unrest in the Middle East," he added.China on Monday cut benchmark lending rates as anticipated, part of a broader package of stimulus measures to revive the economy.Data on Friday showed China's economy grew at the slowest pace since early 2023 in the third quarter, fuelling growing concerns about oil demand.China's oil-demand growth is expected to remain weak in 2025 despite recent stimulus measures from Beijing as the world's No. 2 economy electrifies its car fleet and grows at a slower pace, the head of the International Energy Agency said on Monday.Saudi Aramco's CEO told an energy conference in Singapore on Monday that he was still "fairly bullish" on China's oil demand in light of stepped-up policy support aimed at boosting growth, and on rising demand for jet fuel and liquid-to-chemicals.Meanwhile, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari on Monday repeated that he expects "modest" interest-rate cuts over the coming quarters, though a sharp weakening of labor markets could move him to advocate for faster rate cuts.Lower interest rates cut the cost of borrowing, which can spur economic activity and boost demand for oil.The U.S. Energy Information Administration said last week that weekly oilfield production rose by 100,000 barrels per day to a record 13.5 million bpd during the week ended Oct. 11.U.S. crude oil stockpiles likely rose by about 100,000 barrels last week, while distillate and gasoline inventories were seen down, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday.

Oil settles up 2% as Middle East war rages and supplies tighten -Oil prices settled higher for the second consecutive session on Tuesday, as traders downplayed hopes of a Middle East ceasefire and focused on signs of improving demand from China, which could tighten market balances in the months ahead. Brent crude futures for December gained $1.75, or 2.4%, to settle at $76.04 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for November delivery rose by $1.53, or 2.2%, to $72.09 a barrel and expired after Tuesday's settlement. Beijing's recent efforts to reinvigorate its slowing economy have led some analysts to raise expectations for oil demand in the world's largest crude-importing nation. Weak demand from China amid rapid electrification of its car fleets weighed heavily on oil prices in recent months. Both Brent and WTI rose nearly 2% on Monday, recouping some of last week's more than 7% decline, after China announced cuts to benchmark lending rates. Any improvement in economic growth should also boost fuel consumption. Still, it may take some time for the stimulus efforts to filter through to oil demand, said StoneX analyst Alex Hodes. "We have perhaps seen the low point in demand, but I do not know if there is much consensus regarding how much it can improve the situation," Hodes said. In a note to clients on Monday, analysts at Goldman Sachs said their China demand tracker rose by about 100,000 barrels per day in the prior week to a six-month high, partly as the country's industrial production and retail sales beat expectations. China on Tuesday set crude import quotas for next year at 257 million metric tons , up from this year's 243 million tons. Global oil inventories point to a supply deficit in the fourth quarter, which should support prices in the near term, Hodes said. Global petroleum stocks were around 1.24 billion barrels last week, 5 million barrels lower than last year, according to StoneX's review of data from major trading hubs. U.S. crude stocks rose 1.64 million barrels last week, whereas gasoline and distillate fuel combined fell by 3.5 million barrels, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. Analysts polled by Reuters expect a 300,000-barrel increase in crude stocks. Oil prices eased slightly in low-volume, after-hours trading, with Brent crude at $75.51 a barrel. Government data on U.S. stockpiles is due on Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. ET . [EIA/S] In the Middle East, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the first big push for a Middle East ceasefire since Israel killed the leader of Hamas last week. Washington hopes this will provide an opportunity for peace. Blinken has made little progress towards a ceasefire in his previous 11 visits to the region since the war in Gaza erupted, so there is skepticism among investors that this will be any different, said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho. Israel has so far shown no sign of relenting in its Gaza and Lebanon campaigns, while Iran-allied Hezbollah ruled out negotiations while fighting with Israel continues.

Oil scores back-to-back gains, but 'bearish landscape' remains -- Oil futures scored a second straight session of gains on Tuesday to claw back some of steep losses suffered last week, with prices supported by some upbeat prospects for Chinese demand and ongoing concerns that the Middle Eastern conflict will threaten crude flows from the region. Traders also awaited official U.S. data due out Wednesday that are expected to reveal weekly declines in U.S. crude and petroleum product supplies, though one analyst warned that oil remains bearish given a slowdown in global economic growth. Price moves -- West Texas Intermediate crude for November delivery CL.1 CLX24 rose $1.53, or 2.2%, to settle at $72.09 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on the contract's expiration day. The more actively traded December contract CL00 CLZ24 , which is now the front-month contract, rose $1.70, or 2.4%, to $71.74 a barrel. -- December Brent crude BRN00 BRNZ24, the global benchmark, gained $1.75, or 2.4%, at $76.04 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. -- November gasoline RBX24 tacked on 2.8% to $2.07 a gallon, while November heating oil HOX24 rose 2.5% to $2.24 a gallon. -- Natural gas for November delivery NGX24 settled at $2.31 per million British thermal units, down less than 0.1%. Market drivers The fundamental backdrop for the oil market "remains pretty black-and-white here as demand outlooks have been getting steadily revised lower amid fading momentum in global economic growth," said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Production and supply projections for the quarters ahead also continue to be revised to the upside, he told MarketWatch. Downward revisions to demand outlooks and upward changes to output forecasts provide 'a bearish landscape for oil that will likely result in oil futures trading with a $50 handle before a $90 handle.'Tyler Richey, Sevens Report Research "The product of those physical market dynamics is a bearish landscape for oil that will likely result in oil futures trading with a $50 handle before a $90 handle," Richey said. Still, oil prices have climbed, supported by more economic stimulus measures by China announced on Monday, as well as continued uncertainty over the potential for an Israeli retaliatory strike on Iran. Oil prices had ended lower last week after news reports said Israel had informed the U.S. it wouldn't target Iran's nuclear or energy facilities. Front-month WTI dropped more than 8% last week, while Brent lost more than 7%. However, the ongoing conflict is the "elephant in the room" for oil traders, and Israel's pledged retaliation for Iran's early October missile attack remains a "potential bullish wildcard to watch for the oil market here," said Richey. A retaliatory strike that meaningfully escalates tensions in the region poses an "upside threat to global oil prices as oil production, energy infrastructure, and shipping routes would all be at risk of disruption." Demand remains a concern, however. Based on processing, crude production and import statistics, the oil market in China was oversupplied by 930,000 barrels per day in September, Carsten Fritsch, commodity strategist at Commerzbank, said in a note. A month-on-month increase in processing, coupled with a decline in imports, reduced the implicit supply surplus by half compared with August, he said, but China's oil market remains "in a weak spot," Fritsch said. He added that China's implied oil demand, which is the difference between crude-oil processing and net exports of oil products, was down 2% year over year in September. In the U.S., the Energy Information Administration will release its weekly data on domestic petroleum supplies on Wednesday. On average, analysts forecast inventory declines of 800,000 barrels in crude supplies for the week ended Oct. 18, according to a survey conducted by S&P Global Commodity Insights. They also expect to see weekly decreases of 2.1 million barrels for gasoline and 2.4 million barrels for distillates.

WTI Dips After Largest Crude Inventory Jump Since April --After two days of gains, oil prices roller coastered overnight with WTI testing down to $70 before bouncing back up to $71.50 ahead of this morning's official inventory and supply data. API reported a mixed bag last night as we are sure the impact of the Hurricanes is still rippling through this data.API

• Crude +1.64mm (+800k exp)
• Cushing -216k
• Gasoline -2.02mm (-1.3mm exp)
• Distillates -1.48mm (-1.6mm exp)

DOE

• Crude +5.47mm (+800k exp)
• Cushing -346k
• Gasoline +878k (-1.3mm exp)
• Distillates -1.14mm (-1.6mm exp)

Crude stocks soared by 5.5mm barrels last week (well above expectations), Gasoline stocks unexpectedly built as gasoline inventories dropped for the 5th straight week...Including the 760k barrels added to the SPR, this is the biggest weekly build since April... That pushed total crude stocks up to their highest since August... US Crude production remains at record highs (13.5mm b/d)... WTI dipped off rebound highs after the official data...

Oil Falls on U.S. Inventory Build -Oil dropped as US crude inventories posted an unexpectedly high build and the Biden administration renewed efforts to secure a cease-fire in the Middle East.West Texas Intermediate fell about 1.4% to settle below $71 a barrel, while global benchmark Brent slid to settle at just under $75. US government figures showed the country’s crude stockpiles rose by 5.47 million barrels last week, more than the 1.6 million-barrel increase projected by an industry group on Tuesday.That caused WTI’s prompt spread — the difference between its two nearest contracts — to fall to the lowest intraday level since early this month during the session, a sign of a potential supply glut. On a seasonal basis, crude processing now is at the highest since 2018 as refineries increased runs. Crude prices found a floor during the day thanks to persisting geopolitical risks, “If we had seen something really notable on the production side, that may have been a bigger driver, but this is a number that the market can look through and say ‘Hey, what’s going on with the macro again?’” WTI pared losses on a report that Nigeria plans to defer as many as six cargoes of Forcados crude that were due to load next month into December.Oil has had a roller-coaster ride in October, with traders piling into options markets as hostilities in the Middle East raised the specter of supply disruptions in a region that accounts for about a third of world output. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed the recent killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar opened new possibilities for ending the conflict in Gaza.WTI for December delivery shed 1.4% to settle at $70.77 a barrel in New York. Brent for December settlement fell 1.4% to settle at $74.96 a barrel.

Oil falls more than 1% on higher US crude stocks as market watches Middle East -Oil prices fell on Wednesday after data showed U.S. crude inventories rose by more than expected even as refining activity rebounded, though futures remained up about 2% this week as traders factored in continuing conflict in the Middle East.Brent crude futures dropped $1.08, or 1.42%, to close at $74.96 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures shed 97 cents, or 1.35%, to settle at $70.77 a barrel.Oil had settled higher in the previous two sessions, paring last week's losses of more than 7%. Those declines stemmed from worries about Chinese demand and some easing concerns around Middle East oil supply being disrupted, but investor sentiment appeared to reverse at the start of this week.In the U.S., crude inventories rose by 5.5 million barrels to 426 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 18, the Energy Information Administration said, exceeding analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 270,000-barrel rise. "The large crude oil inventory build this week is offsetting the drop last week. But a lot of this is a result of the rebound in crude oil imports, a lot of it had to do with the hurricane," said Andrew Lipow, referring to the previous week's drawdown due to lower imports and demand post Hurricane Milton.As facilities exit from seasonal fall maintenance refinery runs continued to climb, yielding a build in gasoline and distillates showed a minor draw last week, analysts said.Also pressuring oil prices, the dollar index rose on Wednesday to its highest since late July. A firmer U.S. currency can hurt demand for dollar-denominated oil from buyers using other currencies.The impact of the crude stocks build on prices was countered somewhat by persistent concerns over potential oil supply risk from conflict in the Middle East."The market continues to wait for Israel's response to Iran's missile attack," ING analysts said on Wednesday, adding that Tuesday's price strength was possibly because of the lack of any outcome from U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken's latest visit to Israel.Blinken pushed on Wednesday for a halt to fighting between Israel and militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah, but heavy Israeli air strikes on a Lebanese port city Tyre demonstrated that there was no respite."Market participants priced for the Middle East conflict to drag for longer, with a ceasefire deal potentially seeing some gridlock,"

Concerns That Slow Economic Growth in Europe Could Reduce Energy Demand -- After posting an inside trading day on Wednesday, the oil market on Thursday posted an outside trading day. The market weighed the uncertainty surrounding the conflict in the Middle East against concerns that slow economic growth in Europe could reduce energy demand. The crude market traded higher in overnight trading and rallied to a high of $72.34 early in the morning on risk of wider conflict in the Middle East. Early Thursday, Israel launched strikes on the Syrian capital Damascus, the latest such attack alongside the war in Gaza. This followed Israeli strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs a day earlier and after Hezbollah said it fired precision guided missiles for the first time at Israeli targets. However, the oil market erased all of its earlier gains amid some less than supportive economic news concerning Europe, with euro zone business activity stalling this month and remaining in contractionary territory. The crude market sold off to a low of $69.77 in afternoon trading. The December WTI contract settled in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session and settled down 58 cents at $70.19. The December Brent contract settled down 58 cents at $74.38. The product markets ended the session lower, with the heating oil market settling down 1.93 cents at $2.2023 and the RB market settling down 1.37 cents at $2.0277. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the United States does not want a protracted Israeli campaign in Lebanon. He also said he hoped Iran was getting a clear message that any further attacks on Israel risked its own interests, with the region awaiting the retaliation Israel has vowed for an Iranian missile attack on October 1^st. An Israeli strike killed three Lebanese troops in south Lebanon on Thursday as France hosted a conference to rally support for Lebanese state forces which are seen as vital to any diplomatic resolution of the war between Israel and Hezbollah. The Lebanese army said the soldiers were killed as they were evacuating wounded people on the outskirts of southern village of Yater. There was no immediate comment on the strike from the Israeli military, which has previously said it is not operating against the Lebanese army. On Wednesday, the Pentagon said U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told his Israeli counterpart that Washington had deep concerns about reports of strikes against the Lebanese armed forces. He also urged Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant to make sure Israel takes steps to ensure the safety and security of the Lebanese armed forces and the U.N. peacekeeping mission in Lebanon. French President Emmanuel Macron reiterated his call for a ceasefire in Lebanon on Thursday, adding he regretted that Iran had engaged Hezbollah against Israel but also criticized Israel’s operations in the south of the country.Syria’s Defense Ministry said Israeli strikes on the Syrian capital Damascus and a military site near the western city of Homs early on Thursday killed one soldier and injured seven. The attacks targeted the central Damascus neighborhood of Kafr Sousa and a military site in the Homs countryside.Qatar’s Prime Minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, said the United States, Qatar, and Egypt continue their efforts to reach a ceasefire in Gaza and release Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners.

Oil prices ease on possible new Middle East ceasefire talks (Reuters) - Oil prices eased about 1% in volatile trade on Thursday on reports the U.S. and Israel will try to restart talks on a possible ceasefire in Gaza.Brent futures settled 58 cents, or 0.8%, lower at $74.38 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) slipped 58 cents, or 0.8%, to end at $70.19.Earlier in the session, both benchmarks traded up over $1 a barrel on concerns the ongoing conflict in the Middle East could result in oil supply disruptions and from uncertainty ahead of the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5."(The) energy complex continues to zig and zag as Middle East risk premium expands and contracts almost daily," analysts at energy advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.After Iran fired missiles at Israel on Oct. 1, Brent crude surged about 8% during the week ended Oct. 4 on worries Israel would attack Iran's oil infrastructure. It fell about 8% in the week ended Oct. 18 on reports Israel would not hit energy infrastructure, easing fears of supply disruptions.Iran is a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and produced about 4 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil in 2023, U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed.Iran was on track to export around 1.5 million bpd in 2024, up from an estimated 1.4 million bpd in 2023, according to analysts and U.S. government reports.Iran backs several groups fighting Israel, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen.With the fast-approaching U.S. presidential election, which could alter U.S. Middle East and oil policy, President Joe Biden's administration continued to push for peace between Israel and Hezbollah and Hamas."(Former President Donald) Trump is leading over (Vice President Kamala) Harris based on current data from betting markets and Trump has proposed making the U.S. a major oil supplier," said OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong, adding that such a move could depress prices. While betting markets put Trump ahead, other polls show the result is too close to call. In Europe, Euro zone business activity stalled again this month, remaining in contractionary territory as demand from both home and abroad fell despite firms barely increasing their prices, a survey showed on Thursday.In the UK, optimism among British firms has sunk, according to two surveys published on Thursday, six days before finance minister Rachel Reeves tries to chart a way between raising taxes and boosting growth in the new government's first budget.In the U.S., new applications for U.S. unemployment aid unexpectedly fell last week, but the number of people collecting benefits in mid-October was the highest in nearly three years, indicating it was becoming harder for those losing jobs to land new positions.

Oil settles up, weekly gain 4% as investors weigh Middle East risk and US election (Reuters) - Oil prices settled higher on Friday and gained 4% on the week, with investors taking stock of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East as well as the U.S. election next month.Brent crude futures settled up $1.67, or 2.25%, at $76.05 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled up $1.59, or 2.27%, to $71.78.Brent settled 4% up on the week, while WTI settled 3.7% higher on the week. "Really it seems like the market is bouncing around in a holding pattern till we get an answer to some of these questions on Israel, the war and the election," "The election is creating uncertainty in a lot of markets and people are pulling in their horns a little bit, not ready to be making big commitments because of the potential for spikes, volatility and uncertainty," Investors globally are piling into the U.S. dollar and betting on rising volatility ahead of these next crucial two weeks leading up to the Nov. 5 electionin the U.S., as well as an election in Japan, and three major central banks deciding on interest rates and the UK government presenting its new budget. Both benchmarks have fluctuated this week, rising on Monday and Tuesday before falling on Wednesday and Thursday, largely on expectations of heightened or reduced Middle East risk. "Geopolitics is the leading force today that we are seeing, otherwise we are just waiting to see what happens with the (U.S.) election, and what direction that will push markets in," An Israeli strike killed three journalists in south Lebanon on Friday, Lebanon's health ministry said, and the UN refugee agency warned that Israeli airstrikes on a border crossing with Syria were hindering refugees trying to flee the war.U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said there was a sense of urgency in getting to a diplomatic resolution to end the conflict in Lebanon between Israel and Iran-aligned Hezbollah, while calling for the protection of civilians.U.S. and Israeli officials are set to restart talks for a ceasefire and the release of hostages in Gaza in the coming days.Investors continue to await Israel's response to an Iranian missile attack on Oct. 1. A response could involve strikes on Tehran's oil infrastructure, though media reports last week said Israel would strike military rather than nuclear or oil targets.Elsewhere, traders are also seeking more clarity on China's stimulus policies, though analysts do not expect such measures to provide a major boost to oil demand.Goldman Sachs on Thursday left its oil price forecasts unchanged at between $70 and $85 a barrel for Brent in 2025, expecting the impact from any Chinese stimulus to be modest relative to bigger drivers such as Middle East oil supply.Bank of America is forecasting Brent crude to average $75 a barrel in 2025 without any rolling back of OPEC+ production cuts into next year, it said in a note on Friday.

WTI Breaks Key Level, Closes Week Higher -- Oil rose, notching a gain for the week, as traders kept an eye on the risk of escalation in the Middle East conflict and a deluge of other potentially pivotal market drivers. West Texas Intermediate climbed 2.3% to settle near $72 a barrel, while global benchmark Brent settled just above $76. The US benchmark pushed past its 50-day moving average of about $71.65, a technical level that can contribute to accelerated buying from algorithmic traders. WTI swung in a range of more than $3.50 over the last five sessions as tensions in the Middle East remain high. The US has signaled to Saudi Arabia — the largest source of OPEC’s spare capacity — that it’s ready to help defend the kingdom in the event of an escalation. The New York Times reported that Iran has ordered its armed forces to be prepared for war, though it’s also trying to avoid it. “If we had progress on cease-fire talks, that would probably calm the market a little more, but that’s not happening,” said Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist at US Bank. “So the market does have to tense up ahead of the weekend.” The market is also monitoring any possible changes to output plans from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies as well as the outlook for the US election, which is now less than two weeks away. The array of potential catalysts has spurred frenzied trading in options markets as traders seek to protect against price swings, while volumes have been comparatively more limited in futures. Oil has been whipsawed this month by the tensions in the Middle East, as well as concerns that the market may face a glut next year, driven by output growth from non-OPEC+ producers and plans by the cartel to ease curbs. WTI for December delivery climbed 2.3% to settle at $71.78 a barrel in New York. Brent for December delivery added 2.2% to settle at $76.05 a barrel.

Gallant Says Strike on Iran Will Show World Israel's 'Might' - Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Wednesday that he told a group of Israeli pilots and air crews that the world will see the Israeli military’s “might” once it launches an attack on Iran.“In my conversation with them I emphasized – after we attack Iran, everyone will understand your might, the process of preparation and training – any enemy that tries to harm the state of Israel will pay a heavy price,” Gallant wrote on X.He said in the post that Israel was fighting a war on “seven fronts,” referring to Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Iran.In a video of Gallant addressing the airmen, he said, “After we attack in Iran, they will understand in Israel and elsewhere what your preparations have included.”Gallant’s comments come amid anticipation of an Israeli attack on Iran in response to the October 1 Iranian missile barrage that was fired at Israel, which was retaliation for a series of Israeli escalations. The US has vowed to defend Israel from any Iranian response to the coming Israeli attack and deployed a THAAD missile defense system to Israeli territory for that purpose. The THAAD system was deployed with about 100 troops, who could become potential targets of Iranian missiles.

Iran could blast Israel with 1,000 missiles in horror revenge attack for any IDF assault - Iran could unleash 1,000 missiles towards Israel if a long-awaited revenge barrage hits its nuclear, oil or energy infrastructure, it was claimed last night. A potentially devastating weapons salvo would be Tehran’s potential retaliation if Israel breaches the Supreme Leader’s so-called missile attack red-lines. It comes as the Middle East braces for Israel’s response to Iran’s 200-strong missile attack on October 1, in revenge for Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s killing. And a further 38 Palestinians civilians have been killed in Gaza, whilst three journalists died in an Israeli airstrike on their compound in Lebanon. The clock is ticking on Israel’s response which, it has promised, will be launched before the November 5 US election - but the targets are being kept secret. According to US reports citing sources within Tehran’s shadowy Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, leader Ayotollah Khamenei had ordered preparations to hit Israel. Reports suggest Iran may not escalate in a further tit-for-tat exchange if Israel merely attacks its military bases and equipment stores - avoiding nuclear, oil and energy sites. Attacking the nuclear, oil and, or, energy sites could result in Iran firing off 1,000 ballistic missiles, possibly forcing a flare-up into a much wider regional battleground. The Iranian escalatory response would also include an attack from Tehran’s proxies, the Yemeni Houthis and Lebanese Hezbollah, who are fighting Israeli troops. Israel is suffering increasing losses in bloody battles in Lebanon - with ten IDF soldiers killed in 24 hours and many more injured. Mossad’s top spy master David Barnea is preparing for more Gaza ceasefire talks in Qatar. And the last orders from Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar have emerged - telling fighters to look after remaining hostages so they can be used as leverage. Notes penned by Sinwar before his recent killing emerged in reports from the Middle East. As ground battles rage in southern Lebanon around 130 IDF reservists have insisted on not fighting in Lebanon and Gaza. An attack on a "press-marked” guesthouse in Hasbaya, south east Lebanon, used by a dozen journalists killed three men working for Al-Manar TV and Al-Mayadeen TV. Lebanon's information minister said the attack was deliberate and described it as a "war crime.” An al-Jazeera journalist said on camera: “All official parties were told that this house was being used as a stay-house for journalists. An al-Jazeera journalist said on camera: “All official parties were told that this house was being used as a stay-house for journalists. “We coordinated with them all.” The Israeli military has not yet commented, but has previously denied targeting journalists. Those killed were camera operator Ghassan Najjar and engineer Mohamed Reda from pro-Iranian news channel Al Mayadeen, as well as camera operator Wissam Qassem from the Hezbollah-affiliated Al-Manar. The Lebanese ministry of health said three others were injured in the blast.

Israel launched strikes on Iran in a retaliatory attack. Here’s what we know -- Israel said on Saturday it had struck military targets inside Iran in response to earlier Iranian attacks, again raising fears that the long-running confrontation between the two powerful militaries could escalate into an all-out regional war that draws in the United States.The Israeli military said it had targeted Iranian missile manufacturing sites and aerial defense systems in what appeared to be a highly calculated response that avoided critical energy infrastructure, such as oil fields and nuclear facilities.Calling the strikes a “clear violation” of international law, Iran’s foreign ministry said in a statement that it “considers itself entitled and obligated to defend itself.”But Iran also appeared to downplay the impact, claiming its air defenses had successfully countered the strikes in three provinces – Tehran, Ilam and Khuzestan – and that the damage was “limited.”The Iranian army said Saturday morning that two soldiers were killed in the strikes, without clarifying where the deaths happened. The Iranian soldiers di ed “confronting the projectiles of the criminal Zionist entity,” a reference to Israel, the army said in a statement, which was published on state media.The US meanwhile described the attack as “an exercise in self-defense” that “specifically avoided populated areas and focused solely on military targets.”Israel had vowed Iran would pay for its large-scale missile attack on October 1 that saw around 200 missiles fired at Israel, forcing people across the country to take cover in bomb shelters. For weeks Israeli leaders have been deliberating on the nature and scope of such a response.In the early hours of Saturday local time, Israel launched direct airstrikes against Iran, conducting what it said was “precise strikes on military targets.”The Israeli military said its air force struck “missile manufacturing facilities” that it said were used to produce the missiles that Iran had fired at Israel over the last year.It also said the Israeli military struck “surface-to-air missile arrays and additional Iranian aerial capabilities, that were intended to restrict Israel’s aerial freedom of operation in Iran.” It is unclear if those manufacturing facilities also produced missiles launched by Iranian proxies Hezbollah, Hamas and Houthi rebels in Yemen.Iran later confirmed the attack but said the strikes caused only “limited damage” in some areas, while images broadcast on state media showed the calmness on the streets of the capital Tehran.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu monitors the attack on Iran from an undisclosed location. Parts of the image were obscured by the Israel Defense Forces.Iran’s state news agency reported strikes targeting “military centers in the provinces of Tehran, Khuzestan and Ilam” had been “successfully intercepted.”Several explosions were heard west of Tehran around 2:15 a.m. local time (7 p.m. ET Friday), according to the state news agency. Iranian officials said blasts heard around the country were related to air defense systems being deployed.The initial strikes were closely followed by a second wave, as video posted to social media by Tehran residents showed tracer fire and explosions illuminating the Iranian capital’s sky as dawn neared. A third and final wave then followed.By about 6 a.m. local time, the Israeli military said it has concluded its operation, saying the “mission was fulfilled” and Israeli jets “have safely returned home.”

Lying Western Press Scramble To Frame Israel's Attack On Iran As Self-Defense - Caitlin Johnstone - Israel has launched a round of airstrikes on Iran which the western news media are falling all over themselves to falsely frame as “retaliatory” strikes against an unprovoked missile attack by Iran. As always, history begins the moment Israel is attacked, and all events leading up to that attack vanish from the official record as the imperial propaganda services churn out their headlines.“Israel Launches Airstrikes Against Iran in Retaliatory Attack,” reads a headline from The New York Times, subtitled “Israel had promised strikes after Iran fired several waves of ballistic missiles at Israel earlier this month.” “Israel has begun its retaliatory strikes on Iran, source says,” reads a headline from CNN.“Israel begins retaliatory strikes against Iran following missile barrage targeting Israelis,” reads a headline from Fox News.“Israel launches retaliatory attack against Iran,” reads a headline from Axios.“Live updates: Israel says it has launched retaliatory attacks in Iran,” reads a headline from NBC News.“Israel fires retaliatory strikes against Tehran over ballistic missile barrage,” reads a headline in The New York Post.“Israel Launches Strikes Against Iran In Response To Ballistic Missile Attacks,” reads a headline from Forbes. What the imperial propaganda services are omitting from their headlines is the fact that Iran’s ballistic missile strikes on Israel earlier this month were themselves a retaliatory attack against multiple Israeli assassination strikes. Israel had launched an attack on Iranian soil when it assassinated the leader of Hamas’ political wing Ismail Haniyeh in July, and then killed an Iranian military official in an assassination strike in Beirut.Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps released a statement at the time making it clear that the missile strikes were in response to the assassinations of Haniyeh and IRGC commander Abbas Nilforoushan, as well as Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah. This is all publicly available information. There is no nation on earth that would accept a foreign nation openly assassinating its military officials and conducting assassination strikes on its soil. Any nation would consider such aggressions an act of war, including — and especially — the United States.The western media are portraying Israel as the innocent victim who was attacked out of nowhere by Muslim barbarians because the western media are propaganda services for the western empire. Their job is to frame the US and its allies as virtuous freedom fighters defending their people against unprovoked attacks by evil villains, in order to manufacture consent for the murderous and tyrannical agendas of the US power alliance.The PR spin of these shameful press institutions is so indistinguishable from state propaganda that their messaging mirrors perfectly the position of the US government, who said in a statement following the Israeli airstrikes that they were an act of “self-defense” in retaliation for an Iranian attack.“We understand that Israel is conducting targeted strikes against military targets in Iran as an exercise of self-defense and in response to Iran’s ballistic missile attack against Israel on October 1,” said White House National Security Council spokesperson Sean Savett.We still don’t know whether this latest round of violence will spiral into the horrifying new war we’ve all been fearing as the worst-case nightmare scenario in the fallout from Israel’s murderous behavior this past year. While Axios and its Israeli intelligence insider Barak Ravid report that the US expects Iran to retaliate, as of this writing it appears that the fighting could stop here as long as Israel doesn’t keep attacking.“Both Iranian media, unofficial accounts, and those of aligned militias are downplaying the attacks,” the Quincy Institute’s Trita Parsi said on Twitter, adding the significant caveat: “HOWEVER, only the first phase of the attack has been completed. Whether the effort to downplay the strikes can survive the night and several phases of attacks, remains to be seen.”We’ll find out soon enough, I suppose.

Israel Bombs Tehran, US Expects Iranian Response - Israel launched air strikes on the Iranian capital Friday night. While the extent of the damage is unclear, the US is expecting Iran to retaliate.Iranian media reported that some sites in the capital city of Tehran were targeted. A statement from the Israel Defense Forces confirmed the strikes. “In response to months of continuous attacks … The Israel Defense Forces is conducting precise strikes on military targets in Iran,” it said. According to Axios, the US expects Iran will retaliate. “US and Israeli officials believe Iran will respond militarily,” the outlet reported, adding, “but hope it will be limited and allow the two adversaries to break the tit-for-tat cycle.”However, the White House is concerned that Iran’s response to Israel will lead to a regional war. An official speaking with the Wall Street Journalconfirmed that Tel Avi did inform Washington it was preparing to strike Tehran but did not specify how far in advance Israel warned the US of its plans.The US claimed Israel’s attack on Iran was an act of self-defense. “We understand that Israel is conducting targeted strikes against military targets in Iran as an exercise of self-defense and in response to Iran’s ballistic missile attack against Israel on October 1st.” National Security Council spokesman Sean Savett continued, “We would refer you to the Israeli government for more information on their operation.”Last week, top-secret US intelligence documents provided some details of Israel’s preparations to strike Iran.Over the past year, the Middle East has moved closer to an all-out regional war as Israel has attacked several neighboring countries, conducted assassinations throughout the region, and slaughtered Palestinians.On October 1, Iran attacked military sites in Israel with nearly 200 missiles in response to Tel Aviv killing Hamas’s political leader in Tehran and assassinating Hezbollah’s leader in Beirut. Tel Aviv has been vowing retaliation for the Iranian attack throughout the month. Tehran has said itwill respond to any Israeli attack.Just before Israel attacked Iran on Friday, the US moved fighter jets from Europe to the Middle East.In the leadup to the Israeli strike on Iran, Tel Aviv requested the deployment of an American THAAD air defense system. The White House granted the request, and now 100 American soldiers are manning the system in Israel, making them a potential target for any Iranian response.

Middle East awaits Iran’s response to Israeli attack as Tehran says it is ‘entitled’ to defend itself – live - It’s just after 6.30pm in Tehran and 6pm in Tel Aviv. Here’s a roundup of the latest developments:

• Two soldiers were killed in Saturday morning’s Israeli airstrikes on Iran, according to the official news agency IRNA. The attacks, carried out in retaliation to the missile barrage launched by Iran on 1 October, were heard over several hours in Tehran, the capital, and at nearby military bases.
• The UK and US are among the nations to have warned against further escalation alongside the EU. Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Pakistan have all condemned the attacks.
• Iran’s foreign ministry has defended its right to “defend itself against external aggressive acts”. The ministry called the Israeli attack a violation of international law, adding that Tehran “recognises its responsibilities towards regional peace and security”.
• The internal debate on how Iran should respond turns on whether to treat Israel’s actions as too grave to be ignored, or to elect not to launch reprisals on the basis of advice coming from the region and from the US.
• Hezbollah has fired rockets at Israeli soldiers on the outskirts of Lebanon village Aita al-Shaab, and has also launched drones against an Israeli air base south of Tel Aviv. The “aerial attack with drones” against the Tel Nof base was the first claim of its kind in one year.
• Hezbollah also fired rockets at five residential areas in northern Israel on Saturday, including the outskirts of Krayot near Haifa. Elsewhere the Israeli military has said that it killed a Hamas militant during a raid in the West Bank on Saturday.
• Israeli forces have withdrawn from a hospital complex in northern Gaza one day after storming it. Medics said at least 44 of the 70-member team at the Kamal Adwan hospital in Jabalia had been detained by the army, with 14 later released.

Hezbollah has condemned Israel’s attack against Iran, calling it a “dangerous escalation in the region”. The US “bears full responsibility for the massacres, tragedies and pain” caused by Israel, the group said. The UN secretary-general, António Guterres, is “deeply alarmed” by the escalation in the Middle East following attacks overnight by the Israel Defense Forces on Iran, according to a statement from his spokesperson.“All acts of escalation are condemnable and must stop,” Guterres said in the statement, adding:The secretary-general urgently reiterates his appeal to all parties to cease all military actions, including in Gaza and Lebanon, exert maximum efforts to prevent an all-out regional war and return to the path of diplomacy. Joe Biden, the US president, has said he hopes the Israeli strikes on Iranovernight were “the end”.Biden also said it appeared that Israel had only struck military targets in its attack on Iran. Iran has said three sites were hit and that “limited damage” was caused.

Israel strikes Iranian military targets, reports of 'limited' damage ease escalation fear (Reuters) - Israel bombed military sites in Iran early on Saturday, but its retaliation for an Iranian attack this month did not target the most sensitive oil and nuclear facilities and drew no immediate vows of vengeance.The risk of a wider conflagration between heavily armed Israel and Iran has convulsed a region already on fire with warfare in Gaza and Lebanon, but Tehran's initial response appeared muted.Israel's military said scores of jets completed three waves of strikes before dawn against missile factories and other sites near Tehran and in western Iran, and warned its heavily armed arch-foe not to hit back.Iran said its air defences had successfully countered the attack but four soldiers were killed and some locations suffered "limited damage". A semi-official Iranian news agency said there would be a "proportional reaction" to the Israeli strikes.Tensions between Iran and Israel have grown rapidly since the Oct. 7, 2023 attack on Israel by Iran-backed Hamas, raising fears of a wider regional conflict that could drag in global powers and imperil world energy supplies.Fears of an escalation have increased since Oct. 1 when Iran launched about 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, killing one person in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, in response to earlier Israeli moves.Worsening conflict in Lebanon, where Israel is waging an intense campaign against Iran's main regional ally Hezbollah to stop it firing rockets into northern Israel, has raised the temperature still further.The United States and other countries responded to Israel's strikes by calling for an end to the cycle of confrontation. President Joe Biden said it appeared Israel had only struck military targets in its attack and that he hoped they were "the end".Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said his country has no limits when it comes to defending its interests, its territorial integrity and its people, according to the semi-official Tasnim news agency.An earlier statement from the Foreign Ministry said Iran was "entitled and obligated" to defend itself, but added that it "recognises its responsibilities towards regional peace and security", a more conciliatory statement than after previous bouts of escalation. Two regional officials briefed by Iran told Reuters that several high-level meetings were held in Tehran to determine the scope of Iran's response. One official said the damage was "very minimal" but added that several Revolutionary Guards bases in and around Tehran were also hit. Iranian news sites aired footage of passengers at Tehran's Mehrabad Airport, seemingly meant to show there was little impact. Israel's military, signalling it did not expect an immediate Iranian response, said there was no change to public safety restrictions across the country.Beni Sabti, an Iran expert at Tel Aviv's Institute for National Security Studies, said the Israeli strike had appeared designed to give Tehran an opportunity to avoid further escalation."We see that Israel wants to close this event, to pass this message to Iran that it is closed and we don't want to escalate it," he said.Videos carried by Iranian media showed air defences continuously firing at apparently incoming projectiles in central Tehran, without saying which sites were coming under attack.Israel's military said its jets had struck missile manufacturing facilities and surface-to-air missile arrays, and safely returned home."If the regime in Iran were to make the mistake of beginning a new round of escalation, we will be obligated to respond," the military said.Israel notified the U.S. before striking, but Washington was not involved in the operation, a U.S. official told Reuters. Targets did not include energy infrastructure or Iran's nuclear facilities, a U.S. official said.

Middle East expert: Strike on Netanyahu home 'a signal' from Hamas, Hezbollah -A recent drone strike targeting the home of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is sending “a signal” that Iran-backed militant groups are not “incapacitated,” despite losingsenior leadership in recent weeks, according to a Middle East expert. Daniel Levy, the president of the U.S./Middle East Project, in an interview with NewsNation Saturday, said he did not think the intention “necessarily was an extrajudicial killing of Netanyahu,” but the drone launch was a warning that Iran’s proxies — including Hamas and Hezbollah — are still formidable. “It sends an important signal, doesn’t it,” Levy told “Morning in America” host Hena Doba on Saturday morning.“It sends a signal that any talk that Hezbollah, as this came from Lebanon, has been incapacitated, they are done for. That’s clearly, not only premature, but basically a misreading of that reality,” he added. “I think any talk that Hamas are finished is equally misguided. It doesn’t understand what is the nature of a resistance movement rooted in the objective conditions of a people living without freedom.” His comments come after a drone was launched from Lebanon toward Netanyahu’s home in Caesarea early Saturday. Neither the Israeli leader nor his wife were at home at the time and no injuries were reported, the prime minister’s office said.The attack came just days after the Israeli military killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, the mastermind of the Oct. 7, 2023, terrorist attack on Israel — which killed around 1,200 people while some 250 hostages were taken — that sparked the ongoing war in the region.The targeting of Netanyahu’s residence also came less than a week after a Hezbollah attack on an Israeli military base killed four soldiers. That attack came after an Israeli strike on Beirut killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah late last month — the militant group and Iran have vowed retaliation.The Middle East expert said the latest attack showcased that the missile defense system cannot offer “full protection” and that “you cannot have 100 percent security.”

Israeli Strike in Northern Gaza Kills at Least 87 Palestinians - At least 87 Palestinians were killed by an Israeli strike on residential buildings in Beit Lahia, a city in northern Gaza, CNN reported on Sunday.The report cited Gaza’s Health Ministry, which said the dead included 27 bodies that had been retrieved and 60 bodies still stuck under the rubble. At least 40 people were wounded by the strike, and some are in very critical condition.Footage of the aftermath and at the Kadwan hospital, where the casualties were taken, showed that children were among the dead. An unidentified Palestinian man told CNN that the buildings were sheltering displaced families.“We call on the international community to end the war,” he said. “We beg you, we are civilians with no connection to anyone. We demand that you stop the war.”The massive strike on Beit Lahia comes as Israeli soldiers are attempting to carry out an ethnic cleansing plan, known as the “general’s plan,” in northern Gaza, which has been under a tightening siege for over two weeks and cut off from food, medicine, water, and other basic necessities.The Israeli military has ordered the evacuation of three hospitals in northern Gaza, but the staff refused to leave so they could continue to treat their patients. Gaza’s Health Ministry said Saturday that at least two patients have died at the Indonesian Hospital in Beit Lahia due to the Israeli siege. “The death of two patients inside the Indonesian Hospital in the northern Gaza Strip, as a result of the hospital’s siege and the power outage and medical supplies,” the ministry said. “The occupation has imposed a severe siege on hospitals in northern Gaza since midnight last night, as the Indonesian Hospital was bombed, and Al-Awda and Kamal Adwan Hospitals were besieged at the same time.”

Israeli Ministers Call for Expulsion of Palestinians at 'Resettle Gaza' Conference - On Monday, Israeli Knesset members and senior government ministersattended a conference on re-establishing Jewish settlements in the Gaza Strip that was held in southern Israel near the Gaza border.The conference, titled “Preparing to Resettle Gaza,” was organized by the Israeli settler organization Nachala and members of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party.At least ten out of the 32 Likud party members in the Israeli Knesset were set to attend the conference, including May Golan, who is in Netanyahu’s government as the minister for Social Equality and the Advancement of the Status of Women.In a speech at the rally, which drew hundreds of attendees, Golan vowed Palestinians in Gaza would face another “Nakba,” referring to the ethnic cleansing of Palestinian Arabs when the modern state of Israel was formed in 1948.“We will hit them where it hurts – their land,” Golan said, according toHaaretz. “Anyone who uses their plot of land to plan another Holocaust will receive from us, with God’s help, another Nakba that they will tell their children and their grandchildren about for the next 50 years.”National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, leader of the Jewish Power party, also delivered a speech at the conference, and he received a very warm welcome. Haaretz reported that attendees broke out in chants of “Look over here, it’s our next Prime Minister” and “Death penalty for terrorists,” referring to Ben Gvir’s calls to execute Palestinian prisoners to make room in Israeli prisons.In his speech, Ben Gvir said, “We will encourage the voluntary transfer of all Gazan citizens. We will offer them the opportunity to move to other countries because that land belongs to us.”Ben Gvir and other proponents of conquering Gaza have framed their idea as “voluntary” for the Palestinians, but the Israeli military campaign has made most of Gaza uninhabitable. Palestinians in northern Gaza are currently facing Israeli evacuation orders to move to the south under the threat of death by military action or starvation.Other Israeli ministers who attended the conference include Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and Yitzhak Wasserlauf, the minister for the development of the Negev and Galilee. Daniella Weiss, a leader of Nachala, vowed that Jewish settlements would begin popping up in Gaza within a year. “In less than a year, each one of you can call me and ask me if I succeeded in fulfilling my dream,” she told reporters at the conference. “Actually, you don’t even have to call me. You will witness how Jews go to Gaza and Arabs disappear from Gaza.”Weiss also made it clear that her ambitions for Israeli expansion did not stop in Gaza or the West Bank. “The real borders of greater Israel are between the Euphrates River and the Nile.” Haaretz recently reported that the Israeli government is not seeking to revive ceasefire talks with Hamas and is now pushing for the gradual annexation of large portions of the Gaza Strip.

‘Entire population of north Gaza at risk of dying,’ warns UN’s top humanitarian official – UN News - The UN’s top humanitarian official warned on Saturday that the entire population of northern Gaza is at risk of dying, calling for an immediate stop to “blatant disregard for basic humanity” by Israeli forces.“What Israeli forces are doing in besieged north Gaza cannot be allowed to continue,” said Joyce Msuya, acting Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and UN Emergency Relief Coordinator, in a statement posted on the social media platform X.Hospitals have been hit, health workers detained and first responders prevented from rescuing people trapped under the rubble, she noted.“Shelters have been emptied and burned down…families have been separated, and men and boys taken away by the truckload,” she added.According to reports, hundreds of Palestinians have been killed since Israeli security forces renewed their offensive in northern Gaza earlier this month. Tens of thousands of people have been displaced again. “The entire population of north Gaza is at risk of dying,” Ms. Msuya warned. “Such blatant disregard for basic humanity and for the laws of war must stop.”The head of the UN World Health Organization (WHO) also voiced deep concern over the situation, highlighting the severe impact on healthcare. In a post on X, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus described the situation as “catastrophic”.“Intensive military operations unfolding around and within healthcare facilities and a critical shortage of medical supplies, compounded by severely limited access, are depriving people of life saving care,” he said.He also noted that the Gazan health ministry informed WHO that the siege at Kamal Adwan Hospital – one of the last minimally functioning hospitals in the north – has ended, “but it came at a heavy cost.”Following the detention of 44 male staff members, only female staff, the hospital director and one male doctor are left to care for nearly 200 patients in desperate need of medical attention.Reports that hospital facilities and medical supplies were damaged or destroyed during the siege are deplorable, Mr. Tedros said.“The whole health system in Gaza has been under attack for over a year. WHO cannot stress loudly enough that hospitals must be shielded from conflict at all times. Any attack of healthcare facilities is a violation of international humanitarian law.” He added that the only path to safeguard “what remains of Gaza’s collapsing healthcare system” is through an immediate and unconditional ceasefire.“Lives depend on it!” he stressed.

Israel Starts Bombing Banks in Lebanon - Late Sunday, the Israeli military began launching a series of airstrikes in Beirut’s southern suburbs of Dahieh and in eastern Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley, targeting the branches of a bank.The strikes began shortly after an Israeli military spokesman said the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) would start hitting buildings that belong to al-Qard al-Hassan Association, a bank that Israel accused of financing Hezbollah.“The air force will launch extensive strikes on targets in the southern suburb of Beirut, targeting Hezbollah-linked economic assets,” IDF spokesman Daniel Hagari said not long before the strikes were launched.Al-Qard al-Hassan is under US sanctions over allegations related to Hezbollah, but the bank is also used by ordinary Lebanese citizens. According to Reuters, the bank has 30 branches across Lebanon, including 15 in densely populated parts of Beirut and its suburbs.Lebanon’s National News Agency reported at least 11 Israeli airstrikes hit Beirut’s southern suburbs, including one that landed near Beirut International Airport, and many targeted al-Qard al-Hassan buildings. Several strikes were also reported in the Bekaa Valley.The bank issued a statement assuring its customers that it had taken “all of the necessary procedures since the beginning of the war to safeguard your deposits and valuables and can confirm that you should not worry they are safe.” Israeli strikes have been pounding Dahieh in recent days despite the US assuring the Lebanese government that the attacks on the capital city and its suburbs would ease. On Saturday, at least a dozen Israeli strikes hit Dahieh.

Israeli Strikes Killed 63 People in Lebanon on Monday - Lebanon’s Health Ministry said Tuesday that Israeli strikes on Lebanon a day earlier killed at least 63 people and wounded 234.The Israeli strikes on Monday included an attack that hit residential buildings near the Rafik Hariri University Hospital just outside of Beirut. The strike killed at least 18 people, including four children, and wounded 60.The strike was not preceded by an evacuation order and also damaged the nearby hospital, shattering windows and solar panels located on the roof. The Israeli military insisted it didn’t target the hospital and said the attack was aimed at a “Hezbollah terror target” but offered no evidence for the claim. Israeli strikes continued to pound Lebanon on Tuesday, with four reported in Beirut’s southern suburbs of Dahieh. One strike near where Hezbollah was conducting a press conference leveled an 11-story apartment complex.According to AFP, an Israeli strike on the southern city of Nabatieh wounded three paramedics who were working with UN peacekeepers on a rescue mission. Israeli strikes were also reported near the southern city of Tyre. According to the latest figures from Lebanon’s Health Ministry, Israel has killed at least 2,530 in Lebanon since October 2023. An AFP tally of the ministry’s numbers found at least 1,552 have been killed since Israel dramatically escalated its airstrikes in Lebanon on September 23.

Photos: Moment 2,000lb Bomb Hits Beirut Building in Israeli Airstrike -- The path of the 2,000lb bomb was tracked as it hit the building A month after Israel escalated its war against Hezbollah in Lebanon, airstrikes continued to hit Beirut on Tuesday including one 2,000lb bomb which was caught on camera hitting and destroying an apartment building. A burst of images showed the descent of the bomb before it slammed into the multistorey block in the city’s Ghobeiry neighbourhood, quickly reducing it to rubble. There was no immediate confirmation of casualties from the destroyed building, which the Israelis said housed “Hezbollah facilities”. The strike, photographed at 30 frames a second, came exactly 40 minutes after a warning was issued to residents to evacuate the area. It also came less than a day after another deadly airstrike targeted a block in the same area, which is close to the country’s largest public hospital. With the bomb crater still smoking from the airstrike the night before, on Tuesday the rescue workers had to shout over the noise of excavators and men with sledgehammers trying to clear chunks of concrete and debris. Lebanese Civil Defence Rescue workers suddenly found a hole in the cleared wreckage and shoved their heads in, like foxes at a warren. They told everyone to be quiet. A young man phoned his missing friend. He cried after hearing a phone ringing beneath the rubble. Across the crater Juma, a local resident, hollered to his friend Ali to check again on their neighbours as the search for survivors continued. “So many people live here,” he told The Times. “Lebanese, Syrians, Sudanese. The Sudanese man’s home came down on top of him.” At least 18 people were killed — including four children — and dozens more injured in Monday night’s blast according to an updated death toll on Tuesday released by the Lebanese Ministry of Health. Of the wounded, seven were in a critical condition receiving treatment at the nearby Rafik Hariri University Hospital, which had its glass entrance hall shattered by the blast. In the vicinity, four buildings were flattened by the strikes. Israel’s military denied targeting the hospital, but also repeated its argument that Hezbollah was hiding fighters, weapons and money in densely packed residential areas. Ali, right, from Idlib in Syria, looks on as rescue workers search through the debris, near what was once his home “The IDF will continue to operate in accordance with international law against the Hezbollah terrorist organisation, which systematically embeds its terrorist assets into the civilian population,” the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) said. The strike, which the IDF said struck a “Hezbollah target”, took place at about 10.30pm local time on Monday — only 20 minutes after the Israeli military’s Arabic spokesperson, Avichay Adraee, warned local residents to leave with evacuation orders posted on X and Telegram. The area around the hospital, close to the main road to Beirut’s airport, was not mentioned in the evacuation order, Maan Khalil, the mayor of Ghobeiry, said. “Most of the people, they were children and they were sleeping at around 10.30pm,” he said before adding: “And that’s what led now to a lot of missing children under their houses.”

The West's Support for Israel's Genocide Is Destroying the World as We Know It - The horrifying images from Gaza last week of fire consuming a Palestinian teenager confined to his hospital bed with an intravenous drip may come to define Israel’s genocide, as completely as earlier images of human depravity have defined the world. The flames that burned alive 19-year-old Shaaban al-Dalou, along with his mother and two others, in a tent on the grounds of al-Aqsa Hospital in Deir al-Balah were almost certainly unleashed by US- or German-supplied missiles, fired by Israeli pilots. Dalou was in the tent recovering from an Israeli air strike a week earlier on Deir al-Balah that had killed 26 people. He was already malnourished and immunocompromised from many months of an Israeli blockade, which has denied the entry of food and aid into Gaza. Dalou’s two sisters, father and younger brother all sustained severe burns from the fire caused by the strike. His 10-year-old brother succumbed to his wounds days later. The victims in Deir al-Balah were charred into oblivion – and with them the “rules-based international order” the West helped establish to prevent a repeat of the horrors of the Second World War. The year-long genocide in Gaza is entirely a western co-production. The US and Europe send the weapons, provide the diplomatic cover, orchestrate support from their pliant state- and billionaire-owned media, and stifle all domestic dissent.The modern era of international humanitarian law that the West proclaimed, as well as the institutions the West championed to uphold it, are going up in flames.The parties unravelling – week after week, month after month – the rules that kept in check the dangers of a third world war are not the so-called “terrorists”. It’s not Hamas, Hezbollah, al-Qaeda or the Islamic State. It’s not even Iran, Russia or China. It is the West. It is Washington and its allies. They are the arsonists.The humanitarian catastrophe Israel has engineered in Gaza has no precedent in the modern era. Israel’s genocide is not just pitiless, like so many other wars. It has been brazen, celebratory even, in its orgy of destruction. The bombs strike the very “safe zones” Israel declares. They hit hospitals, schools serving as shelters for displaced families, bakeries, mosques and churches.There is nothing secret about Israel’s long starvation of Gaza’s “human animals”: 2.3 million people, or however many of them are still alive after the enclave lost the capacity to count its dead months ago.Israel is now doing to Gaza precisely what it threatened to do long before it was able to exploit the pretext of 7 October. It is pummelling the enclave to send it “back to the Stone Age”. It is not Hamas that is being eliminated in Gaza. It is the fundamentals of humanitarian law: the principle of “distinction” between combatants and non-combatants, and the principle of “proportionality” in weighing military advantage against the endangerment of civilians. All of this is happening out in the open, concealed only by the refusal of western politicians and media to admit what everyone else can see. What Israel has made clear, supported by western capitals, is that there is no safe place, not even for those recovering in a hospital bed from Israel’s earlier atrocities. There are no “non-combatants”, no civilians. There are no rules. Everyone is a target. It is only because Israel knows it has left the international order in tatters, and that Washington is fully on board, that it dares to carry out its genocide in Gaza to the bitter end.Barely mentioned in the western establishment media has been Israel’s so-called “Generals’ Plan”: turning an area Israel has declared as “northern Gaza” into an official, industrial-scale extermination camp. The plan, published last month by a group of influential military reservists, involves giving some 400,000 Palestinians in northern Gaza a week to flee southwards. Anyone left will be starved to death or executed as a “Hamas terrorist”. Frustrated by Israel’s failure to defeat Hamas, these senior officers want to erase any last traces of protections for civilians. The question left unanswered is what happens to southern Gaza after the north has been ethnically cleansed. All the evidence so far suggests that anything done to northern Gaza will arrive soon enough in the south.

Russia investigates the claimed shoot-down of a cargo jet in Sudan’s Darfur region (AP) — Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces said Monday they shot down a cargo jet in the country’s far western reaches of Darfur, a claim that Russian diplomats said they were trying to investigate in the war zone. Mobile phone footage showed what appeared to be a debris field with fighters from the paramilitary force, known as the RSF, showing off what appeared to be identity documents recovered from the crash. However, documents also shown in the footage from the crash site suggest the aircraft was affiliated with an airline previously linked to an effort by the United Arab Emirates to arm the RSF in the war, something that has been strenuously denied by the UAE despite evidence. A message from Russia’s Embassy in Khartoum confirmed its diplomats were investigating the incident in Sudan’s Malha region in northern Darfur near the border with Chad. The embassy’s message said Russians may have been on board at the time. The RSF has been at war with the Sudanese army since April 2023.The paramilitary force claimed in a statement it shot down a “foreign warplane” that had been aiding the Sudanese military. It alleged without providing evidence that the aircraft had been dropping “barrel bombs” on civilians. “All foreign mercenaries aboard the aircraft were eliminated in the operation,” the statement said. Mobile phone footage showed fighters among the burning wreckage, claiming they shot down the aircraft with a surface-to-air missile. Identity documents shown included a Russian passport and an ID that linked back to a UAE-based company, whose phone number was disconnected.

Putin suffers another massive defeat, this time in Moldova - Russian President Vladimir Putin is having a really bad week.White House National Security Communications advisor John Kirby confirmed that Russia’s military is losing 1,200 soldiers a day in Ukraine. Failing to win on the battlefield, Putin is now desperately resorting to trying to buy his would-be empire with rubles.But on Monday, Putin’s motley crew of oligarchs failed him yet again. This time it was in Moldova. Russia allegedly spent $15 million to bribe Moldovan voters against moving toward European Union membership. Moldovans, however, narrowly approved changes to their constitution that commit the country to joining the EU. The bribery plan was allegedly perpetrated by Ilan Shor, who was “accused of laundering the money and orchestrating the network, despite his political party being banned [in Moldova].” Shor is a Moldovan-Israeli industry mogul. Nonetheless, Putin’s Russian rubles for votes scheme in Chișinău fell short. Official Moldovan government results indicated a 50.46 percent to 49.54 percent victory for the small nation, which is wedged between Ukraine and Romania. Mad Vlad did achieve a Pyrrhic victory. Moldovan incumbent President Maia Sandu failed to win an outright majority. She secured just 41 percent of the vote and consequently faces a run-off election on Nov. 3 against Aleksandr Stoianoglo, who received 26 percent of the vote. Stoianoglo is supported by the pro-Russian Party of Socialists.Sandu accused Russia of committing an “unprecedented assault on democracy” by paying people to vote against the EU referendum. She says she has “clear evidence” that 300,000 votes were bought. EU spokesperson Peter Stano acknowledged the validity of Sandu’s claim. “This vote took place under unprecedented interference and intimidation by Russia and its proxies, aiming to destabilize the democratic processes in the Republic of Moldova,” he said. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied the accusation, calling for evidence to support her claims. That evidence was presented shortly thereafter, when a BBC reporter interviewed a woman at a polling station for residents of the breakaway region of Transnistria, who said she was offered 1,000 rubles to vote against the referendum and Sandu.

Russian invasion sends Ukraine population plummeting by 10 million: UN -Ukraine’s population has declined by around 10 million people, or about a quarter, since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, according to the United Nations. The number of Ukrainians living in the country has diminished due to the exodus of refugees, a collapse in fertility, and war deaths, Florence Bauer, the Eastern Europe head of the UN Population Fund, said on Tuesday. The invasion has accelerated an already evident population decline that began before the war, the UN agency said. That number drop matches a trend seen across much of Eastern Europe, but the conflict has worsened the situation. The largest deterioration in Ukraine’s population is due to the 6.7 million refugees now living abroad, primarily in Europe. War deaths are also a significant factor. “It’s difficult to have exact numbers, but estimates range around tens of thousands of casualties,” Bauer said. “The birth rate plummeted and is currently at around one child per woman, which is one of the lowest in the world,” the UN official added. A fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman is needed to maintain a stable population. Accurate population data for Ukraine won’t be available until after the conflict ends, and a complete census can be conducted, Bauer noted. Ukraine, which had a population of over 50 million when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, has, like almost all its Eastern European and Central Asian neighbours, undergone severe population decline in recent years. In 2021, ahead of the Russian invasion, the country had around 40 million people. Russia, meanwhile, with a pre-war population of over 140 million, has also seen its population deteriorate since it invaded Ukraine. The country recorded its lowest birth rate since 1999 in the first six months of this year; a development that the Kremlin called “catastrophic”.