Senate Democrats call for another half-point Fed rate cut - Democrats on Capitol Hill are calling for another big interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve this week to reduce housing costs. Sens. Elizabeth Warren and John Hickenlooper say recent data suggests there is "no need for restrictive interest rates" and easier monetary policy is necessary to lower housing costs.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by a quarter point -— The Federal Reserve approved its second consecutive interest rate cut Thursday, moving at a less aggressive pace than before but continuing its efforts to right-size monetary policy. In a follow-up to September's big half percentage point reduction, the Federal Open Market Committee lowered its benchmark overnight borrowing rate by a quarter percentage point, or 25 basis points, to a target range of 4.50%-4.75%. The rate sets what banks charge each other for overnight lending but often influences consumer debt instruments such as mortgages, credit cards and auto loans. Markets had widely expected the move, which was telegraphed both at the September meeting and in follow-up remarks from policymakers since then. The vote was unanimous, unlike the previous move that saw the first "no" vote from a Fed governor since 2005. This time, Governor Michelle Bowman went along with the decision. Stocks closed positive after the meeting wrapped, with the Nasdaq, whose holdings are tilted towards the tech sector, rallying 1.5% to lead the major averages. Both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 closed at record highs. Treasury yields plunged after roaring higher the day before. The post-meeting statement reflected a few tweaks in how the Fed views the economy. Among them was an altered view in how it assesses the effort to bring down inflation while supporting the labor market. "The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance," the document said, a change from September when it noted "greater confidence" in the process. Fed officials have justified the easing mode for policy as they view supporting employment becoming at least as much of a priority as arresting inflation. The statement slightly downgraded the labor market, saying "conditions have generally eased, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low." The committee again said the economy "has continued to expand at a solid pace." Officials have largely framed the change in policy as an attempt to get the rate structure back in line with an economy where inflation is drifting back to the central bank's 2% target while the labor market has shown some indications of softening. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has spoken of "recalibrating" policy back to where it no longer needs to be as restrictive as it was when the central bank focused almost solely on taming inflation."This further recalibration of our policy stance will help maintain the strength of the economy and the labor market and will continue to enable further progress on inflation as we move towards a more neutral stance," Powell said at his post-meeting news conference.There is uncertainty over how far the Fed will need to go with cuts as the macro economy continues to post solid growth and inflation remains a stifling problem for U.S. households.Gross domestic product grew at a 2.8% pace in the third quarter, less than expected and slightly below the second-quarter level, but still above the historical trend for the U.S. around 1.8%-2%. Preliminary tracking for the fourth quarter is pointing to growth around 2.4%, according to the Atlanta Fed.Generally, the labor market has held up well. However,nonfarm payrolls increased by just by 12,000 in October, though the weakness was attributed in part to storms in the Southeast and labor strikes. The decision comes amid a changing political backdrop. President-elect Donald Trump scored a stunning victory in Tuesday's election. Economists largely expect his policies to pose challenges for inflation, with his stated intentions of punitive tariffs and mass deportations for undocumented immigrants. In his first term, however, inflation held low while economic growth, outside of the initial phase of the Covid pandemic, held strong. Still, Trump was a fierce critic of Powell and his colleagues during his first stint in office, and the chair's term expires in early 2026. Central bankers assiduously steer clear of commenting on political matters, but the Trump dynamic could be an overhang for the course of policy ahead.
Fed cuts interest rate as chair Powell bats away questions on impact of Trump agenda -- Following the consequential political events of Tuesday, the Federal Reserve meeting over the next two days to set monetary policy was described as one of the more inconsequential of recent times. But future meetings may not be so calm. As expected, the Fed yesterday cut its interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point (25 basis points). That had been foreshadowed at its September meeting when the Fed reduced its rate by 50 points, the first cut since it began raising rates two and a half years ago. In his prepared remarks Fed chair Jerome Powell stuck to his steady-as-it-goes script, saying the Fed would seek to adhere to its so-called dual mandate of bringing price stability, defined in present conditions as an inflation target of 2 percent, while ensuring maximum employment. Presenting a picture of a strong US economy, with inflation coming down, growth of around 2.8 percent and a labour market which, while “cooling” was still strong, Powell said the Fed would continue to try to reach the so-called “neutral” rate, neither restrictive nor expansionary, “carefully” and “patiently.” “Nothing in the economic data suggests that the committee has any need to be in any hurry to get there,” he said. There was “strong economic growth” and “ongoing strength in the labor market.” But Powell pointedly sidestepped a question about his picture of a “strong” economy contrasting so markedly with the lived experience of millions of workers and their families dealing with a significant reduction in their living standards reflected in the turn against the Democrats. The return of Trump and the impact of his proposed agenda of massive tax cuts, sweeping tariffs and mass deportation of immigrants was raised in the question-and-answer session of the press conference at the conclusion of the meeting. Powell deflected these questions, refusing to be drawn on what effect the policies of the new administration would be. “We don’t guess, we don’t speculate, and we don’t assume,” he said. But there was an issue to which he gave a definitive answer. Back in the latter part 2019, when the stock market was demanding a rate cut, Trump insisted that Powell meet it. In a Twitter (now X) post in August 2019, Trump asked: “Who is our bigger enemy, Jay Powell or Chairman Xi [Jinping]”, the Chinese president. In line with Trump’s aim to fill crucial positions in his second administration with close cronies, some of his entourage have been pushing for Powell’s removal. Asked if he would step down if asked to do so, Powell replied: “No.” When asked whether he could be removed Powell said that was “not permitted under the law.” Insofar as longer-term economic questions were dealt with, one was the issue of US government debt. It is now rapidly approaching $36 trillion under conditions where the payment of the interest bill has risen from around $300 billion a year a few years ago to more than $1 trillion today. At present some 14 percent of total government outlays, that is one dollar in seven, is spent meeting this bill. Powell said the Fed would take material and persistent changes in the costs of US government borrowing into account. He also repeated previous remarks that while the present level of US debt was sustainable, the present path of debt accumulation was “unsustainable.”
Powell says he won't resign for Trump, can't be fired - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell had a clear, direct response when asked during a press conference Thursday if he would step down if asked to do so by President-elect Trump.“No,” said Powell, whose term as chair ends in 2026.When asked to elaborate and if he would be legally required to leave, he again said, “No.”Powell later said it is “not permitted under the law” for the president to fire or demote him or any of the other Fed governors with leadership positions.Trump appointed Powell during his first term in 2017 but repeatedly and publicly criticized the Fed and its chair for not cutting rates fast enough throughout his tenure.Powell also said in 2019 that he would not resign if asked by Trump. President Biden reappointed Powell in 2021 — despite objections from progressives who have criticized the chair — saying he has burdened the average American by keeping rates too high for too long.Trump suggested earlier this year that Powell, a lifelong Republican, was “political” and would cut rates ahead of the 2024 election to help Democrats. While the Fed did cut rates in September by a whopping 50 basis points, Trump handily defeated Vice President Harris this week.The Fed is a politically independent agency and closely guards its reputation. But in August, Trump suggested he should “have at least a say” in monetary policy, including interest rates, because he has “made a lot of money.”Trump later walked back his comments during an interview with Bloomberg.“I think it’s fine for a president to talk,” he said. “It doesn’t mean that they have to listen.”
Federal Open Market Committee press conference: Live coverage --The meeting comes just one day after Donald Trump was declared the winner of this week's presidential election, a development expected to usher sweeping changes to the economy — and potentially the Federal Reserve, too. While Trump's proposed tariff and tax-cut policies could have significant implications for future monetary actions, look for Powell to avoid commenting on fiscal policy proposals and politics writ large. The Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee will announce its interest rate decision at 2pm, followed by a press conference with Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell. Markets are expecting a 25 basis point rate cut at today's meeting. […]The Fed cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point Thursday afternoon, dialing down its monetary policy stance for the second meeting in a row.The FOMC voted unanimously to lower the target range for the federal funds rate from between 4.75% and 5% to between 4.5% and 4.75%. The move was broadly anticipated.In its official policy statement, the committee attributed the decision to an uptick in unemployment and continued progress on inflation since its last meeting. It added that the economy continued to expand and the overall jobless rate remains low. The committee said it will consider "incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks" as it considers further cuts moving forward.During its meeting Wednesday and Thursday, the FOMC opted to continue reducing its balance sheet holdings by up to $60 billion per month.The Fed will allow up to $25 billion of Treasury securities to mature monthly without replacing them.The mortgage-backed securities runoff will stay capped at $35 billion with excess runoff being reinvested into Treasuries.The Fed had not indicated that it would slow its balance sheet runoff, but the decision to hold steady indicates the committee was unbothered by a spike in overnight funding and repurchase agreement rates at the end of September. Some observers felt the episode could be an early sign of reserve scarcity — a byproduct of balance sheet reduction that the Fed is looking to avoid. The Fed has dropped roughly $2 trillion of assets since it began winding down its balance sheet in June 2022. The S&P 500 index didn't have much of a reaction to the Fed rate cut news, hovering around 5,966.30 as the press conference is about to begin. Rate cuts typically are seen as good news for the market, though this rate cut was widely telegraphed and may be baked into investors' assumptions. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said this week's presidential election outcome will have "no effect" on the central bank's monetary policy.During his post-FOMC press conference, Powell said it is too soon to know what policies the new Trump administration might implement and what their impact would likely be on financial and economic conditions."We don't know what the timing and substance of any policy changes will be," Powell said. "We therefore don't know what the effects might be on the economy, specifically, whether and to what extent those policies would matter for the achievement of our goals of maximum employment and price stability. We don't guess. We don't speculate."Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the FOMC is keeping an eye on elevated 10-year Treasury yields, but the committee is not yet changing its policies because of them. Long-term Treasury rates began trending up in the weeks running up to the presidential election, with observers attributing the trend to economic uncertainty and anticipation of an increase in government borrowing under a Trump presidency.Powell said long-term rates are important, but because they can change quickly based on a variety of factors, they are not a core component in the Fed's monetary policy. "It's material changes in financial conditions that last, that are persistent, that really matter," Powell said. "We're watching [Treasuries markets] for decompositions and reading others, but right now, it's not a major factor."Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said he would not vacate his post if asked or replaced by the incoming Trump administration.When asked if he would leave, Powell said simply, "No."When asked whether he feels that the president has the power to remove him, Powell similarly replied simply, "No." During his first term, President Trump openly speculated about removing Powell — who he first nominated to the post in 2017 — and Powell similarly said he would serve out his term as Fed chair.Powell further said when asked whether an incoming administration could remove other Fed Governors from either their posts on the board or their leadership positions within the Fed board, Powell said such a move is "not permitted under the law."
Campaign promises complicate outlook on Fed policy -- Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have both made a barrage of campaign promises on spending, taxation and trade policies that would come with hefty price tags. Those outlays could complicate the Federal Reserve's plans for lowering interest rates. The impact of both presidential candidates' fiscal promises around taxation and spending could have dramatic effects on the Federal Reserve's outlook for monetary policy, which has become more aggressive toward rooting out inflation.
Changes coming to the Fed in a Trump presidency -- Donald Trump's return to power all but guarantees that changes are coming to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, but the range of potential shake-ups varies widely. At a minimum, president-elect Donald Trump can make two appointments to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and choose new leadership. But more substantial changes could be in the offing.
10-year Treasury yield posts huge leap to 4.43% on Trump win --Treasury yields surged Wednesday as Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election over Vice President Kamala Harris, along with a strong showing for Congressional Republicans across the country.The 10-year Treasury yield jumped more than 14 basis points to trade at 4.433%, hitting its highest level since July during the session, as investors bet a Trump presidency would increase economic growth and potentially fiscal spending.The yield on the 2-year Treasury was up by about 7 basis points to 4.274%, reaching its highest level since July 31. One basis point is equivalent to 0.01%. Yields and prices have an inverted relationship.NBC News projected that Trump won the presidential election, driven by victories in North Carolina, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Georgia. NBC News also projected Republicans are expected to regain majority control of the U.S. Senate in 2025. The House was still up for grabs, leaving open the possibility of a Republican sweep. The general thinking on Wall Street ahead of the election was that bond yields could see a big pop in the event of a Trump win, and they could surge in a Republican sweep, where the party captures control of Congress and the White House. That is because Republicans may introduce tax cuts and steep tariffs, which could spark economic growth but also widen the fiscal deficit and reignite inflation. "If there's a Republican sweep of House, Senate and the presidency, I expect the bond market to be wobbly," Jeremy Siegel, finance professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, said on CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Tuesday. "I expect them to be worried that Trump would enact all those tax cuts, and I think bond yields would rise." Neither Trump nor Harris really promised fiscal discipline on the campaign trail, raising worries that investors will demand higher yields in exchange for holding Treasurys as the government is forced to issue more and more debt to fund its ballooning spending. Yields were moving higher even before the election. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield surged 50 basis points in October, marking the biggest monthly increase since September 2022. The big jump in rates comes even though the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rate in September and indicated further cuts ahead. On Thursday, the central will make its next decision on interest rates.
Dollar Soars, Euro Tumbles as Trump Wins US Presidential Election (Reuters) -The dollar soared to a four-month high on Wednesday after Republican Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election, with policies on immigration, tax and trade expected to spur higher U.S. growth and inflation. Trump beat Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris to retake the White House while Republicans also won a U.S. Senate majority. Control of the House of Representatives remains in question, with Republicans currently holding a majority. A full sweep by Republicans would allow the party to make larger legislative changes and in turn would likely provoke larger currency moves. Trump’s policies on restricting illegal immigration, enacting new tariffs, lower taxes and deregulation may boost growth and inflation and crimp the Federal Reserve’s ability to cut rates. "This can push inflation higher and force the Fed to a slower easing path, which is dollar-positive," said Nikos Tzabouras, senior market specialist at trading platform Tradu. The euro zone, Mexico, China and Canada are viewed as being at risk of potential new tariffs, which may hurt economic growth in the regions. That would widen their interest rate differentials with the United States and weigh on their currencies. The euro may also be weighed down by political uncertainty in Germany. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz sacked his Finance Minister Christian Lindner on Wednesday after weeks of wrangling over the economic direction of the government. Newspaper Bild had earlier reported that Lindner had recommended early elections as a solution to the budget impasse, a proposal Scholz had rejected. Nick Wood, head of execution at MillTechFX and Millennium Global notes that currency moves on Wednesday have been orderly, with some market participants holding relatively light positions heading into the U.S. election. “It seems like elements of the market were actually kind of running quite light in terms of risk, so therefore they can be a little bit more patient in terms of entering positions as opposed to feeling like you're the wrong side of something and having to exit a position at a speed,” he said. A complicating factor for the dollar outlook longer term, meanwhile, could be that Trump has stated a preference for a weak U.S. currency. “Both this year, but also during his previous stay at the White House, he had essentially challenged the longstanding strong dollar mantra, because he prefers a weaker currency to help with exports and American economic activity,"
Elon Musk draws skepticism with call for $2 trillion in spending cuts - Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s call for “at least” $2 trillion in cuts to federal spending is drawing skepticism from experts as the billionaire tech magnate cements himself as one of former President Trump’s most prominent backers.“How much do you think we can rip out of this wasted, $6.5 trillion Harris-Biden budget?” Howard Lutnick, a Wall Street CEO and Trump’s transition team co-chair, asked Musk at the former president’s recent rally held at Madison Square Garden in New York City. Without offering specifics, Musk said in response that he thinks “at least $2 trillion” in a brief moment that has since gained widespread attention online and drawn mixed reactions from budget world.While many experts agree that policymakers must take action to confront the nation’s climbing debt, which stands at nearly $36 trillion, some are tossing cold water on Musk’s comments.“He could be a big voice in the government, but, realistically, there isn’t much political willingness to do the tough stuff that [needs] to be done to get the budget under control,” Desmond Lachman, a senior fellow at the right-leaning American Enterprise Institute, said in an interview. “So, whatever Elon Musk thinks and whatever Donald Trump thinks, it’s got to get through Congress,” Lachman said. Figures from the Treasury Department show the federal government spent north of $6.7 trillion over the yearlong period that ended in September, running a deficit of more than $1.8 trillion during the time frame. A categorical breakdown of that spending showed Social Security at the top of the list, with a more than $1.4 trillion price tag, followed by other items such as health, interest payments, Medicare and national defense. Together, those items amounted to well more than half of government spending for the 12-month stretch.Trump pledged in September to establish a government efficiency commission headed up by Musk to conduct a “complete financial and performance audit of the entire federal government” and make “recommendations for drastic reforms.”Trump also repeatedly lauded Musk as a “cost-cutter” and said there are “a lot of roles he could take” during an interview with Fox News’s Sean Hannity earlier this week. “But here’s the thing, he feels there’s such waste, fraud and abuse in our budgets, and he’s right, and he’s a great cost-cutter,” Trump said, “and he’ll cut costs without anybody even knowing it.”“Nobody’s going to know, nobody’s going to feel it. He will cut costs, and he feels he can save $2 trillion. If he does that, our budget is more than balanced.”Pressed on how Trump’s proposed commission would help bring down the nation’s debt, Musk said in a recent online town hall that he would “consider it a victory even to slow down the debt,” before adding that, if he had “full power to take action,” he would “balance the budget immediately.”“Most importantly, we have to reduce spending to look within our means, and you know that that necessarily involves some temporary hardship, but it will ensure long-term prosperity,” he also said at the time.
US Bombers Arrive in Middle East as Part of New Deployment for Israel -US B-52 bombers arrived in the Middle East on Saturday as part of a new deployment to “defend” Israel amid speculation over whether or not Iran will respond to Israel’s October 26 attack. “B-52 Stratofortress strategic bombers from Minot Air Force Base’s 5th Bomb Wing arrived in the US Central Command area of responsibility,” US Central Command wrote on X. The Pentagon announced it was beefing up its military presence in the region on Friday, saying Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin ordered the “deployment of additional ballistic missile defense destroyers, fighter squadron and tanker aircraft, and several US Air Force B-52 long-range strike bombers to the region.” The Pentagon said the purpose of the deployment is the “protection of US citizens and forces in the Middle East, the defense of Israel, and de-escalation.” The US also recently deployed a THAAD missile defense system and about 100 troops to Israel. Iranian officials have been vowing there will be a response to Israel’s attack, which killed four Iranian soldiers and one civilian. Israel launched the airstrikes on Iran in retaliation for the October 1 Iranian missile barrage that was fired into Israel in response to a string of Israeli escalations and assassinations in the region. Axios has reported that Israeli intelligence suggests Iran is planning to launch a major attack from Iraqi territory and that it could happen before the US presidential election on November 5. However, a report published by The Wall Journal on Sunday said that Iran didn’t want to influence the US election and would likely wait until after. The Journal report, which cited unnamed Arab and Iranian officials, said Iran has told Arab diplomats it’s planning a complex response against Israel that would involve more powerful warheads and other weapons not used in its previous attacks on Israeli territory. One source said Iran would likely target military facilities again “but much more aggressively than last time.” Another Axios report said the US warned Iran that if it attacked, the US wouldn’t be able to restrain Israel. “We told the Iranians: We won’t be able to hold Israel back, and we won’t be able to make sure that the next attack will be calibrated and targeted as the previous one,” a US official told Axios.
Iran Says It Won't Be Deterred by US Bomber Deployment to Middle East - On Monday, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said the new US B-52 bomber deployment to the Middle East wouldn’t deter Iran as Iranian officials are vowing there will be a response to Israel’s October 26 attack on Iranian territory.The US heavy bombers arrived in the region on Saturday as part of a deployment meant as a threat to Iran. The Pentagon said the bombers and other US military assets were being sent to the region to “defend” Israel.When asked about the US deployment, Baghaei said, “We have always believed that the presence of America in the region is a destabilizing presence” and added that it “will not deter [Iran’s] resolve to defend itself.”According to media reports, Iran is planning a major attack on Israel that may be launched from Iraqi territory. Publicly, Iranian officials are saying a response is inevitable, and Baghaei said it will be “definite and decisive.”Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian suggested on Sunday that Iran would soften its attack on Israel if a ceasefire were reached in Gaza and Lebanon, but there’s no sign the Israelis are thinking about ending the slaughter. Israel has also ramped up attacks on Syria in recent days.On top of the US bombers being sent to the Middle East, the Pentagon said Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin also ordered the deployment of additional US Navy destroyers, a fighter squadron, and tanker aircraft. The US also has a THAAD missile defense system and about 100 troops in Israel. If Iran decides to launch a major attack on Israel, it could also target US assets since the US is vowing to defend Israel.
Report: US Warns Iraq Not To Allow Iran To Attack Israel From Iraqi Territory - The Biden administration has warned the Iraq government that if it allows Iran to attack Israel from its soil, the US won’t stop Israel from striking Iraq, Axios reported on Tuesday.The report said US and Israeli intelligence believe that Iran is preparing to launch a significant attack from Iraq in response to Israel’s October 26 airstrikes on Iran, which killed four Iranian soldiers and one civilian. Iranian officials have been vowing that there will be a response.US and Israeli officials claim Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has been moving drones and ballistic missiles to Shia militias in Iraq in preparation for a joint attack.The Axios report said National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Secretary of State Antony Blinken both spoke with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani this week and warned him not to allow Iran to attack from Iraqi territory. “If you don’t, we won’t be able to stop Israel from striking Iraq,” a US official said.The US is vowing to defend Israel from any potential attack and has deployed additional military assets to the region for that purpose. The US also deployed B-52 bombers to the Middle East as a threat to Iran.Iran has said that it would not be deterred by the new US deployments and said the American presence in the region is “destabilizing.” Since the US is vowing to defend Israel, US military assets could become targets of Iranian missiles, especially if Iran feels its attack will lead to a full-blown war.
Iraq Denies Reports That Iran Is Planning to Attack Israel From Its Territory - The Iraqi government on Wednesday denied reports that Iran is planning to launch a major attack against Israel from Iraqi territory, saying the rumors were “false pretexts” meant to justify aggression against Iraq.“Iraq’s national interests demand distancing its land and airspace from the hostilities fueled by Israel’s expansionist and aggressive policies toward nations and peoples in the region,” Iraq’s Council for National Security said, according to The Cradle.Iraqi Shia militias have launched drone attacks on Israel, but the reports coming from US media say Iran has been planning something much more significant. Axios reported on Wednesday that US and Israeli officials claimed Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has been moving drones and ballistic missiles to Shia militias in Iraq in preparation for a joint attack.The US has reportedly warned Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani that if Iran launched an attack from Iraqi territory, the US wouldn’t stop Israel from striking Iraq.Iranian officials have vowed they will respond to Israel’s October 26 airstrikes, an attack that killed four Iranian soldiers and one civilian. Israel’s strikes came after Iran fired a barrage of nearly 200 ballistic missiles at Israeli territory on October 1, which came in response to a series of Israeli escalations in the region.The US is vowing to defend Israel from any potential Iranian attack and deployed additional military assets, including B-52 bombers, as a threat to Iran. The US pledge to back Israel could make US troops and military assets in the region potential targets of Iranian missiles.
Unsealed charges reveal thwarted Iranian plot to kill Trump (AP) — The Justice Department on Friday disclosed an Iranian murder-for-hire plot to kill Donald Trump, charging a man who said he had been tasked by a government official before this week’s election with planning the assassination of the Republican president-elect. Investigators were told of the plan to kill Trump by Farhad Shakeri, an accused Iranian government asset who spent time in American prisons for robbery and who authorities say maintains a network of criminal associates enlisted by Tehran for surveillance and murder-for-hire plots. Shakeri told the FBI that a contact in Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard instructed him this past September to set aside other work he was doing and assemble a plan within seven days to surveil and ultimately kill Trump, according to a criminal complaint unsealed in federal court in Manhattan. The official was quoted by Shakeri as saying that “We have already spent a lot of money” and that “money’s not an issue.” Shakeri told investigators the official told him that if he could not put together a plan within the seven-day timeframe, then the plot would be paused until after the election because the official assumed Trump would lose and that it would be easier to kill him then, the complaint said. Shakeri is at large and remains in Iran. Two other men were arrested on charges that Shakeri recruited them to follow and kill prominent Iranian-American journalist Masih Alinejad, who has endured multiple Iranian murder-for-hire plots foiled by law enforcement. “I’m very shocked,” said Alinejad, speaking by telephone to The Associated Press from Berlin, where she was about to attend a ceremony to mark the anniversary of the tearing down of the wall. “This is the third attempt against me and that’s shocking.” In a post on the social media platform X, she said: “I came to America to practice my First Amendment right to freedom of speech — I don’t want to die. I want to fight against tyranny, and I deserve to be safe. Thank you to law enforcement for protecting me, but I urge the U.S. government to protect the national security of America.” Lawyers for the two other defendants, identified as Jonathan Loadholt and Carlisle Rivera, did not immediately return messages seeking comment. In Tehran, Esmail Baghaei, an Iranian foreign ministry spokesman, rejected the report and called it a plot by Israel-linked circles to make Iran-U.S. relation more complicated, the official IRNA news agency reported. Similar accusations in the past were rejected by Iran as their “erroneousness” were proved, he said. “Repeat of the accusation in the current time span is a disgusting plot by the Zionist and anti-Iran circles that has aimed at making US-Iran problems more complicated,” Baghaei said. Shakeri, an Afghan national who immigrated to the U.S. as a child but later was deported after spending 14 years in prison for robbery, also told investigators that he was tasked by his Revolutionary Guard contact with plotting the killings of two Jewish-Americans living in New York and Israeli tourists in Sri Lanka. Officials say he overlapped with Rivera while in prison as well as an unidentified co-conspirator. The criminal complaint says Shakeri disclosed some of the details of the alleged plots in a series of recorded telephone interviews with FBI agents while in Iran. The stated reason for his cooperation, he told investigators, was to try to get a reduced prison sentence for an associate behind bars in the U.S.
US military carried out 95 counter-ISIS operations in last 60 days -- U.S. forces in the Middle East have killed 163 Islamic State group militants and captured another 33 in dozens of operations in Iraq and Syria since late August, U.S. Central Command said in a Monday statement. Since Aug. 29, more than 95 Defeat ISIS (D-ISIS) operations, some of which included strikes in Syria, “resulted in 163 terrorists killed and 33 captured, including over 30 senior and mid-level ISIS leaders,” according to the command, which oversees American forces in the region. “These successful operations resulted in the seizure of significant enemy materiel that could aid in future disruptions,” the statement notes, adding that the sustained pressure on ISIS leaders has hindered their ability to operate and to plan attacks. The U.S. military along with security forces in Iraq and Syria have been involved in near constant strikes and raids in the two countries as of late in a bid to prevent a resurgence of the terrorist group following its defeat in 2019. One of the more notable attacks came in late October when U.S. troops targeted camps in the Syrian desert and several of the group’s senior leaders, killing as many as 35 militants, Centcom said at the time. Joint American-Iraqi strikes and raids on ISIS locations in central Iraq on Oct. 22 killed at least seven of the group’s operatives. Two U.S. service members were wounded during that operation by an explosion and had to be transported to Walter Reed National Military Medical Center in Maryland, while a third person was assessed for traumatic brain injury. There are about 900 U.S. forces operating in Syria while roughly another 2,500 are in Iraq participating in a counter-ISIS mission.
US Military Says It Was Involved in 95 Anti-ISIS Operations That Killed 163 in 60 Days - US Central Command said in a press release on Monday that its forces were involved in 95 operations against ISIS in Iraq and Syria since August 29. Some of the operations were conducted with Iraqi government forces in Iraq and Kurdish-led forces in Syria. The US also conducted several rounds of unilateral airstrikes in Syria.CENTCOM claimed the operations killed a total of 163 “terrorists” and the capture of 33 more. “These successful operations resulted in the seizure of significant enemy material that could aid in future disruptions,” the command said.There have been US casualties in the operations as well, although no US troops have been killed. In October, two US military personnel were wounded in a raid in Iraq. On August 29, seven Americans were hurt in an attack on ISIS hideouts in Iraq.Many of the nearly 100 US military operations came after Vice President Kamala Harris falsely claimed in a debate with former President Donald Trump that no US troops are deployed in combat zones.The US continues to be involved in military operations against ISIS in Iraq and Syria even though both governments don’t want the help. In Syria, the government in Damascus opposes the US military presence in the country, making it an illegal military occupation.In Iraq, Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has repeatedly stated that government forces could handle ISIS remnants in the country without the US-led anti-ISIS coalition. The US and Iraq have agreed to end the coalition’s mission by September 2025, but US troops will remain under a bilateral arrangement.ISIS holds no significant territory in Iraq and Syria, but there’s been an uptick in ISIS attacks this year as the group has benefited from the regional destabilization caused by Israel’s US-backed onslaught in Gaza.
Iran-Backed Houthis Reportedly Declare Ceasefire Shortly After Trump Victory - Former President Trump isn't even back in the White House, but news of his historic victory in the US presidential election has already sent shockwaves through the top leadership of the Iran-backed Houthi rebels. Reports on X indicate that the rebels have declared a ceasefire, halting a year of missile and drone strikes on Western-linked commercial and military vessels across the critical maritime chokepoint in the southern Red Sea. According to Defense Arabia on X, Houthi spokesman Yahya Sarea stated, "Our operations in international waters were purely defensive, and we announce their final cessation."Since October 2023, Houthi rebels have launched over 80 attacks on commercial ships in this critical maritime chokepoint, sinking two vessels and killing four sailors.
Trump says he’ll put ex-NFL player in charge of US missile shield --Former President Trump told supporters Sunday that he wants to put former NFL player and failed GOP Senate candidate Herschel Walker in charge of a new missile defense shield if elected. Walker, a staunch ally of Trump, appeared at a rally in Macon, Ga., where he flubbed the GOP presidential candidate’s name twice. “It is time for it to stop, and it stops on Tuesday when we vote for my friend, and your friend, Donald Trump Jr. — Donald Trump. Jonald J. Trump,” Walker said at the end of his speech. Trump, who spoke after Walker, said if elected, he would “build a missile defense shield all made in the USA,” and “put Herschel Walker in charge of that little sucker.” Trump over the past year has declared that he would create an “Iron Dome” for the United States in a second term, referring to the missile defense system used by Israel. On Sunday, he said “a lot of” such a system would be built in Georgia. But Iron Dome is used against short-range missiles, and any such system built to protect the U.S. mainland would come with an astronomical price tag and little use in stopping mid- to long-range missiles, such as from North Korea or Russia. It is unclear if Trump meant Walker would be in charge of overseeing all U.S. missile defenses or the process of building a new system. Walker spent 12 seasons in the NFL beginning in the late 1980s before retiring and pursuing business ventures in food processing, with no experience in missile defense or national security. He eventually made his way to politics and served under Trump as a co-chair of the President’s Council on Sports, Fitness, and Nutrition from 2019 to 2020. Walker launched his first political campaign in Georgia’s 2022 Senate election, during which he supported finishing Trump’s southern border wall and for Washington to “heavily invest” in the military. Walker’s campaign, however, was plagued by controversies and baffling and false statements. He mistakenly said there were 52 states, falsely claimed he was once an FBI agent, and lied about graduating from the University of Georgia, when in reality he had left to play professional football and did not complete his degree.
Israel Informs UN of Its Plan To End Relationship With Palestinian Relief Agency - Israel formally notified the United Nations on Monday of its decision to end its relationship with the UN’s Palestinian relief agency, UNRWA, which millions of Palestinians rely on to survive.Israel said it was ending a 1967 agreement that regulated its relations with UNRWA. The move came a week after the Israeli Knesset passed legislation to ban UNRWA activities inside Israel and effectively end its operations in the West Bank and Gaza as well.The legislation, which is set to fully take effect within 90 days of the bills being passed, prohibits any contact between UNRWA and Israeli authorities, making UNRWA aid deliveries into Gaza impossible. The US warned Israel against implementing the legislation, acknowledging it would mean cutting off food supplies to starving women and children, but that hasn’t stopped Israel from moving ahead with the plan.UNRWA is responsible for the most significant humanitarian relief operations in Gaza, and the Israeli legislation did not include a plan to replace the agency’s efforts. The UN’s World Food Program said Monday that it was not in a position to replace UNRWA, pointing to its services, including “the administration of emergency shelters, schools, and health centers.”Israel has waged war against UNWRA over the past year, killing over 200 of its staff members in Gaza. Israel has claimed a significant number of UNWRA’s staff are members of Hamas but has offered no evidence for the allegations, which have been strongly rejected by the UN agency. The Israeli Knesset passed the bills to ban UNRWA as the number of aid deliveries into Gaza was at its lowest point yet. In early October, Israel imposed a starvation blockade on northern Gaza as part of its efforts to carry out an ethnic cleansing campaign known as the “general’s plan.”UNICEF head warns everyone in Northern Gaza “is at imminent risk of dying” - Every man, woman and child who remains in northern Gaza “is at imminent risk of dying,” warned Catherine Russell, the director of the United Nations Children’s Fund, in a statement Saturday. Nearly one month ago, Israel began an assault on Northern Gaza to implement the so-called “generals’ plan” to ethnically cleanse the entirety of Northern Gaza. Virtually no food, water, or medical supplies have been allowed into the northern section of the Gaza Strip, forcing hundreds of thousands of people to flee. Those who remain, estimated at approximately 100,000 people, are cut off from all necessities of life and are being systematically starved or killed by Israeli bombardment. Israel’s “generals’ plan” is being carried out with the endorsement and support of the United States, which continues to fund and arm the Israeli genocide in Gaza. The US is also sending troops to the Middle East to aid Israel’s escalating war against the populations of Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and Iran. As a result of this starvation and killing campaign, “the entire Palestinian population in North Gaza, especially children, is at imminent risk of dying from disease, famine, and the ongoing bombardments,” Russell said. “This has already been a deadly weekend of attacks in North Gaza,” Russell added, noting that “In the past 48 hours alone, over 50 children have reportedly been killed in Jabalia, where strikes leveled two residential buildings sheltering hundreds of people.” She continued, “Taken alongside the horrific level of child deaths in North Gaza from other attacks, these most recent events combine to write yet another dark chapter in one of the darkest periods of this terrible war.” Russell said international law prohibits the targeting of civilians and humanitarian workers. “Yet these principles are being flouted over and over again, leaving tens of thousands of children killed, injured, and deprived of essential services needed for survival.” These statements were echoed by Rachel Cummings, a spokesperson for Save the Children, who told Al Jazeera: We are seeing the apocalypse now unfolding in the north of Gaza. People are being constantly bombarded with aerial attacks, and, of course, we know that the food and water are not sufficient. The convoys of food and water are being denied into the north... It is absolutely catastrophic. She added that 20,000 children are either missing or unaccompanied, and another 14,000 children have been confirmed killed. “[Children are] having to take on roles within family settings that are not for children. They take on caregiver roles. They have to take on fetching water, trying to find food,” she said. “They have seen things that no child should ever see.” The mass killing continued Sunday, with Israeli strikes killing 31 people in the Gaza Strip that day, Reuters reported. The killings took place in separate attacks on houses in Beit Lahiya town and Jabalia. Israeli forces attacked Kamal Adwan Hospital near Beit Lahiya, severely wounding a child and damaging the facility’s nursery. Dr. Hussam Abu Safia, director of the Kamal Adwan Hospital in northern Gaza, described to Al Jazeera the horrifying conditions that medical staff are working under. “As Israeli forces stormed the hospital and detained the entire medical staff, I, together with my assistant physician, we were left alone between a rock and a hard place, either to give up or start doing what we can to save lives,” Abu Safiya told Al Jazeera. “We’ve been flooded with victims suffering all kinds of injuries.” He concluded, “We have been abandoned by the whole world and left to work under unimaginably harsh and horrifying conditions.” In a statement, the Euro-Mediterranean Human Rights Monitor wrote: Since the beginning of August 2024, the Israeli army has targeted schools, hospitals, clinics, and shelter halls 65 times, including 39 times in the current month of October, killing 672 Palestinians and injuring over 1,000 more, according to the Euro-Med Monitor field team.
Gaza Tells Us Who We Are by Caitlin Johnstone -- Some days it’s hard to say which is more horrific: the Gaza genocide itself, or the moral decay throughout our society which makes it possible. I mean, the atrocities in Gaza have a couple million victims. If you add up the populations of the US, Europe, Canada and Australia, you’ve got around a billion people living in a dystopia whose collective conscience is so warped and twisted that they’d allow their governments to support a live-streamed genocide in full view of the entire world. A billion people who are so morally bankrupt that they find it tolerable for such a nightmare to be inflicted upon their fellow human beings right in front of them.This has been especially pronounced during the heat of a US presidential race, with tens of millions of voters falling all over themselves to cognitively sweep Gaza under the carpet so they can throw their support behind one of the two mainstream candidates who’ve both pledged to support the Zionist state which is perpetrating this genocide. At best they see Israel’s crimes as an annoying side issue which the left keeps disrupting their Kamala parties about, and at worst they support Israel’s actions entirely. What a pointless, meaningless, soulless way to live. What a betrayal of truth, and of our own humanity. How could anyone possibly find satisfaction in that kind of zombie-like existence? Mindlessly shuffling along to the beat of the status quo, devouring human flesh because it’s more comfortable than the cognitive dissonance which would come with divorcing the power-serving worldview you’ve been indoctrinated from birth into espousing. I was listening to an interview with a doctor who worked in Gaza during the genocide and he discussed the time many months ago when the IDF forced the evacuation of a hospital and left four premature babies to die in their incubators after assuring the staff they’d be taken care of. Their tiny bodies were found decomposing weeks later after Israeli forces cleared out of the area.How did that one incident, just by itself, not stop the world? How did it not stop us all in our tracks and force us to re-evaluate everything that led to this point? It wasn’t a secret that those four babies died; it was in the mainstream news. It was right there, right in front of us, and we did nothing.Such atrocities have been happening on a daily basis for thirteen months now, and still nothing.We’ve got to live like this. We’ve got to live in this genocidal dystopia, surrounded by shambling sleepwalkers covered in human blood. Our lives here in the west are far, far more comfortable than the lives of people in Gaza, but they are also far less truthful, and far less capable of nourishing the human spirit. We marinate in lies and psychopathy, watch lies and psychopathy, eat drink sleep and breathe lies and psychopathy. Our minds are full of garbage and our hearts are full of shit, and we are wading around up to our ankles in the blood, sweat and tears of the global south. This festering sore of a civilization is the only soil in which the western-backed genocide in Gaza could take root.The people in Gaza have to suffer the consequences of who we are and what we have become, but we have to live with who we are and what we have become. We’re killing their babies and leaving them to rot, but we’re the ones who have to live with the corpses of rotting babies in our souls. One way or another the killing in Gaza will end one day. But the forces within us which gave rise to that butchery will live on long after the sounds of the drones and explosions have ceased. We will have to live like that. We will have to live knowing that this is who we are.
State Department Spokesman Cracks Joke About Israel's Starvation Blockade on Gaza - State Department spokesman Matt Miller on Monday made a joke and laughed when pressed about Israel failing to meet US requests to allow more aid into Gaza as it’s imposing a starvation blockade on the northern part of the Strip. The Biden administration sent a letter to Israeli officials on October 14 that gave them 30 days to allow more aid deliveries into Gaza, a move dismissed by a former State Department official as a public relations stunt since the deadline falls after the presidential election. Since the letter was sent, the situation for Palestinians has only gotten worse, and October marked a record low in the number of aid trucks entering Gaza. The US letter said Israel should allow 350 aid trucks into Gaza per day, and Israel hasn’t gotten remotely close to that. When asked about the aid levels, Miller acknowledged Israel has “failed”to meet US requests so far but said there was still time until the 30-day deadline and that the US wouldn’t give a “grade” to Israel just yet. “It’s not the end of the semester. You don’t give out – you don’t hand out grades in the middle,” he said while laughing. Matt Lee, a reporter for The Associated Press, said in response, “I suspect that the levity is a little bit inappropriate.” Miller then said the situation in Gaza has not been “good enough” for some time. “The situation has not improved sufficiently in the 21, 22 days, whatever it is since we sent that letter,” he said.But the US has continued to provide weapons to Israel, ignoring foreign assistance laws that prohibit military aid to countries that intentionally block aid deliveries. In the letter sent to Israeli officials, the Biden administration said there may be “implications” under US foreign assistance laws if Israel failed to meet its requests, but there was no explicit threat to cut military aid. Miller has refused to say if there would be any consequences for Israel at the end of the 30-day period. When asked again on Monday what the US might do, Miller said, “I don’t want to forecast in any way what it is that we’ll do at the end of those 30 days.”
Netanyahu Congratulates Trump, Says They Discussed 'Iranian Threat' -Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke with President-elect Donald Trump to congratulate him on his victory against Vice President Kamala Harris and said the two discussed the “Iranian threat.”According to a statement released by Netanyahu’s office, the Israeli leader was “among the first to call” Trump after his victory.“Their conversation was warm and cordial,” the statement said. “The Prime Minister congratulated President-elect Trump on his election victory. The two agreed to work together for Israel’s security, and also discussed the Iranian threat.”In a separate statement, Netanyahu called Trump’s victory the world’s “greatest comeback” and appeared to take a shot at President Biden by saying Trump’s return to the White House “offers a new beginning for America and a powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America.” During his time in office, Trump was extremely pro-Israel, but his relationship with Netanyahu soured when the Israeli leader congratulated President Biden on winning the 2020 election when Trump was still disputing the results. The move angered Trump, who had harsh words for Netanyahu in 2021, but the two have been friendly as Trump has been on the campaign trail this year.
Israel Signs $5.2 Billion Contract With Boeing To Purchase F-15s With US Aid - Israel’s Defense Ministry said Thursday that it signed a $5.2 billion contract with Boeing to purchase 25 F-15 fighter jets using US military aid amid global calls for an arms embargo on Israel over the slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza.The contract is part of an arms sale the Biden administration approved for Israel back in August that’s worth $18.8 billion. The deal gives Israel the option for another 25 F-15 fighter jets and includes upgrades for its existing fleet of F-15s and other related equipment.Under the contract for the first batch of 25 jets, Israel will start taking deliveries of Boeing’s new F-15IA in 2031, and it’s expected to receive four to six of the aircraft annually.Earlier this year, Israel signed a $3 billion contract to acquire 25 Lockheed Martin-made F-35 jets, which was also financed by US military aid.Brown University’s Costs of War project said in a report last month that US support for Israel over the past year had cost US taxpayers at least $22.76. The total includes $17.9 billion in direct military aid and $4.8 billion in spending on US military operations in support of Israel, including the bombing campaign against the Houthis in Yemen. The new contract for the F-15 fighter jets brings total US spending on Israel since October 7, 2023, to about $27.96 billion.The Biden administration continues to provide weapons to Israel despite foreign assistance laws that prohibit military aid to countries that purposely block humanitarian aid. The administration has also received around 500 reports of US weapons being used by Israel to kill civilians unnecessarily, but no action has been taken.
US F-15 Fighter Jets Arrive in Middle East as Part of Buildup Aimed at Iran - The US military said Thursday that additional F-15 fighter jets arrived in the Middle East as part of a buildup meant as a threat to Iran as Tehran is vowing it will respond to Israel’s October 26 airstrikes on Iranian territory.“Today, US Air Force F-15E Strike Eagles from the 492nd Fighter Squadron, RAF Lakenheath, England, arrive in the US Central Command area of responsibility,” US Central Command wrote on X.The Pentagon announced last week that it was sending additional military assets to the region for the “defense” of Israel. CENTCOM said that B-52 bombers arrived in the region on November 2. According to flight and satellite data, six US B-52 bombers are at al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar. Haaretz reported that the US F-15 fighter jets were being sent to Jordan. The Pentagon said it would also be deploying additional US Navy destroyers and tanker aircraft to the region.Before the latest US deployments, the Pentagon sent a THAAD missile defense system and about 100 troops to Israel. The US assets in Israel and elsewhere in the region could become potential targets of Iranian missiles since the US is vowing to defend Israel.Recent media reports have said Iran is planning to launch a major attack on Israel from Iraqi territory. Baghdad has denied the rumors, sayingthey’re “false pretexts” to justify aggression against Iraq.
Report: Israel Considers Attacking Iranian Nuclear Sites During US Transition - Israel is considering hitting Iran’s civilian nuclear facilities during the US presidential transition period, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday.The report cited an Israeli official familiar with the thinking inside the Israeli security cabinet who said the handover period might provide Israel with a window to attack Iran’s nuclear program. Realistically, Israel would likely need US support if it wanted to do significant damage to Iranian nuclear facilities that are buried deep underground. A US official speaking to Bloomberg ruled out the idea of President Biden ordering an attack on Iranian nuclear sites in cooperation with Israel, but the US is vowing to defend Israel if Iran responds to recent Israeli airstrikes that hit Iranian territory.The fact that Israeli officials are discussing the idea of hitting Iran’s nuclear sites signals that they are looking for another escalation with Iran before President-elect Donald Trump is inaugurated. During the last transition period in 2020, Israel carried out a covert attack inside Iran that killed Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, a nuclear scientist.The Israeli official speaking to Bloomberg said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu considered Iran’s nuclear program an “existential threat,” although there’s no evidence that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has decided to build a nuclear weapon, something that’s recently been affirmed by the CIA. However, Israel’s aggression in the region has prompted calls inside Iran to reconsider the nuclear doctrine. Khamenei issued a fatwa in 2003 prohibiting the development of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction.Iran is currently enriching some uranium at 60%, which is the highest level it has achieved but still lower than the 90% needed for weapons-grade uranium. Israeli aggression led to Iran increasing uranium enrichment to 60% as it took the step in response to a sabotage attackon its Natanz nuclear facility in April 2021. Before that, Iran took the step to increase uranium enrichment to 20% in response to the Israeli assassination of Fakhrizadeh.
US Soldier Injured Earlier This Year on Gaza Pier Dies - A US Army soldier who was injured earlier this year while working on the US-constructed temporary pier off Gaza has died due to his wounds, CNN reported on Monday. Sgt. Quandarius Davon Stanley, 23, was one of three US soldiers injured while working on the pier in May. At the time, the Pentagon said two suffered very minor injuries while the other was hurt severely enough to be evacuated for medical care. The Pentagon insisted the injuries were “non-combat” related but didn’t share any details about the incident. It’s unclear what kind of injury Stanley suffered, but he was medically retired from the Army since he could no longer perform his job. The US Army told CNN that Stanley died on October 31. “Stanley was injured while supporting the mission that delivered humanitarian aid to Gaza in May 2024 and was receiving treatment in long-term care medical center,” an Army spokesman said. The Gaza pier failed to bring any relief to the Palestinians and only operated for about 20 days. It was repeatedly knocked out by weather since it was unable to handle the conditions in the Eastern Mediterranean. When President Biden ordered the construction of the pier during his State of the Union address back in March, aid groups dismissed it as a public relations stunt since it would have been far more efficient to send more aid trucks through land crossings. But Biden refused to pressure Israel to allow more aid into the Strip.
How Joe Biden Could Save Lives And Change American Politics on His Way Out the Door - Wait, what? We’re talking about Joe Biden? Why? He’s a “lame duck.” No matter who wins the US presidential election on November 5, he’s going home to Delaware on January 20. His chances of asking for, and getting, much from Congress during that two-and-a-half month interregnum are negligible. But as head of the US government’s executive branch, what he can do is follow the laws, no matter how loudly Congress howls, absent Supreme Court intervention in support of criminal behavior. He won’t do it now for fear of harming Kamala Harris’s chances versus Donald Trump, but once the votes are in he’s free to follow his conscience … if he still has one after decades in politics, where a conscience is a liability. The laws I’m speaking of are Section 620M of the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961 (22 U.S.C. 2378d), which applies to the Secretary of State, and its Department of Defense analog, 10 U.S.C. 362, informally known as the “Leahy Laws.” Those laws, according to the US State Department Fact Sheet on them, prohibit “the U.S. Government from using funds for assistance to units of foreign security forces where there is credible information implicating that unit in the commission of gross violations of human rights.” Evidence that Israeli units have committed, and continue to commit, gross violations of human rights in Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon isn’t just credible, it’s overwhelming. Israeli forces have killed at least tens of thousands, and more likely in the 200,000 range, in Gaza, the occupied West Bank, and Lebanon, since last October. Most of the dead are non-combatants, many of them children. Israeli forces have been caught red-handed in numerous atrocities, from bombing hospitals and refugee camps to anally raping male prisoners with metal rods. Israeli politicians openly defend and encourage even that last one. There’s no doubt whatsoever that Israeli forces are committing gross violations of human rights … and it is therefore illegal for the US government to provide one thin dime of military aid or assistance to those forces. Period. Why hasn’t Biden already ordered the Secretaries of State and Defense to stop writing checks and shipping weapons to Israel? Because Israel has a powerful political lobby in the US. Anything less than complete and unquestioning obedience to Benjamin Netanyahu’s every demand is a “third rail”… for politicians who face re-election. Biden doesn’t face re-election. And these days, the Israel lobby’s support goes mostly to Republicans. Its main intervention on behalf of Democrats is meddling in primaries to ensure “pro-Israel” Democrats get nominated in “safe” Democratic seats. At some point, there’s going to have to be one of those “national conversations” over whether it’s really in the interests of the United States to unstintingly support a violent, atrocity-prone, ethno-supremacist regime. That conversation is unlikely to go Israel’s way. But it has to be started by a figure of national stature who needn’t worry about re-election. If Biden does possess a conscience, or even just desires a big “legacy” accomplishment, he’ll cut the Israeli regime off come November 6.
Oh No, Now The US Will Have A President Who Does Bad Things - Notes From The Edge Of The Narrative Matrix – by Caitlin Johnstone - Democrats are sitting on a mountain of hundreds of thousands of human corpses they helped kill by mass military slaughter in the last four years, weeping and lamenting that now bad things are going to start happening. Democrats are shrieking so loud today because they know they’re wrong. They know their party ran a dogshit candidate. They know it was crazy to expect the left support the party that’s committing a live-streamed genocide. It’s not anger. It’s not fear. It’s cognitive dissonance. I should probably repeat what I said back in July: if you’re a Trump supporter who started reading me for my criticisms of the Biden administration, you are going to hate my guts after your guy gets in.Democrats will spend the next four years viciously attacking Trump. So will I. But while Democrats will attack Trump because of the few ways in which he is different from themselves, I will be attacking him because of the many ways in which he is the same as the Democrats. Both parties are in full alignment when it comes to the worst evils of the US empire. I and others like me will be focusing there, while the Democrats pour all their energy into pretending to be a real opposition party and exaggerating the differences between themselves and Trump. The reason US presidential elections are so close and US politics remain divided pretty much 50–50 is because both parties are constantly walking the tightrope of trying to give the donor class as much as possible while giving Americans as little as possible and still getting votes. As soon as they figure out they can make fewer concessions to ordinary voters and still have a chance at winning, they roll back those concessions to make concessions to the plutocrats who own them.
Donald Trump Is Not Your Friend -- – by Caitlin Johnstone - Virulent Iran hawk Brian Hook has reportedly been chosen by Donald Trump to help staff the State Department of the incoming administration, just in case you were still holding out hope that this time might be different and Trump really would end the wars and fight the deep state. Readers might remember Hook as the swamp creature who in 2017 was seen in a leaked State Department memo lecturing Rex Tillerson on the US government’s policy of using human rights as a cynical tool to undermine enemies and reinforce alliances. This is done, Hook explained, by ignoring human rights abuses when they are perpetrated by US allies while emphasizing them at every opportunity in the nations of enemy governments in order to “impose costs, apply counter-pressure, and regain the initiative from them strategically.”“The ‘realist’ view is that America’s allies should be supported rather than badgered, for both practical and principled reasons, and that while the United States should certainly stand as moral example, our diplomacy with other countries should focus primarily on their foreign policy behavior rather than on their domestic practices as such,” Hook wrote in the memo, saying that “In the case of US allies such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the Philippines, the Administration is fully justified in emphasizing good relations for a variety of important reasons, including counter-terrorism, and in honestly facing up to the difficult tradeoffs with regard to human rights.”“One useful guideline for a realistic and successful foreign policy is that allies should be treated differently — and better — than adversaries,” Hook wrote. “We do not look to bolster America’s adversaries overseas; we look to pressure, compete with, and outmaneuver them. For this reason, we should consider human rights as an important issue in regard to US relations with China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran. And this is not only because of moral concern for practices inside those countries. It is also because pressing those regimes on human rights is one way to impose costs, apply counter-pressure, and regain the initiative from them strategically.” Hook’s words, shared in confidentiality with the political neophyte Tillerson, were an excellent window into what western empire managers are doing when they feign outrage at alleged human rights abuses in nations they’ve targeted for destruction. The fact that his would be one of the first names chosen by Trump suggests we can expect more despicable foreign policy recklessness from the returning president.I’m already getting people telling me to “give Trump a chance” and stop criticizing him before he’s in office when I point out developments like this. Give Trump a chance? He had four years. He was the president for four fucking years. Trump showed us who he is: a murderous warmongering empire lackeyjust like his predecessors.The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior. There’s no reason to think this time will be different. Trump criticizes foreign interventionism because that kind of rhetoric is popular, not because he actually means it. In order to get to where he’s at Trump cut deals with Zionist oligarchs, powerful lobby groups, and more or less the exact same Republican voting base and donor class that’s given rise to every other disgusting Republican president in recent years. Even if he wanted to end wars and fight the establishment (and there is no evidence that he does), he’s already tied his own hands with the deals he’s made with the powerful establishment factions he’s promised his service to.
US Sending Ukraine New $425 Million Weapons Package - The Pentagon announced on Friday that it was sending Ukraine a new weapons package worth $425 million, which includes HIMARS ammunition, air defenses, artillery rounds, and other equipment. The weapons are being provided under the Presidential Drawdown Authority, which allows the Biden administration to ship them straight from US military stockpiles. The package was announced around the same time Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin spoke with his Ukrainian counterpart, Rustem Umerov. The new military aid comes as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is urging his Western backers to adopt his so-called “Victory Plan,” which calls for major escalations, including the provision of Tomahawk missiles. But there’s no sign the US and NATO are willing to take those steps. Despite the lack of a path toward a Ukrainian victory, the US continues to pour weapons into the conflict. According to the Pentagon, the new weapons package includes:
- Munitions for National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS)
- Stinger missiles
- Counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems (c-UAS) equipment and munitions
- Air-to-ground munitions
- Ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS)
- 155mm and 105mm artillery ammunition
- Tube-launched, Optically tracked, Wire-guided (TOW) missiles
- Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems
- Stryker Armored Personnel Carriers
- Small arms and ammunition
- Medical equipment
- Demolitions equipment and munitions
- Spare parts, ancillary equipment, services, training, and transportation
The Pentagon also released a fact sheet that said the Biden administration has committed $60.4 billion in weapons for Ukraine since Russia invaded on February 24, 2022. Factoring in other types of assistance and all the Ukraine spending in the $95 billion foreign military aid bill President Biden signed into law back in April, the proxy war has cost US taxpayers at least $186 billion so far.
Zelensky Wants NATO To Support Long-Range Strikes on North Korean Troops Inside Russia - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has again lashed out at his Western backers for not supporting long-range strikes on Russian territory with NATO missiles, which he believes could be used to target North Korean troops inside Russia. In a Telegram post on Friday night, Zelensky claimed Ukraine knew where North Korean troops were gathering in Russia. “Now we see every site where Russia is accumulating these soldiers from North Korea on its territory – all their camps,” The Ukrainian leader wrote. Zelensky continued, “We could strike preemptively if we had this opportunity – to strike at a sufficiently long range. And it depends on the partners. But instead of such necessary long-range, America is watching, Britain is watching, Germany is watching. Everyone is just waiting for the North Korean military to start attacking Ukrainians as well.” Russian President Vladimir Putin has made clear that long-range strikes inside Russian territory would risk nuclear war, and the US appears to have gotten the message, at least for now. Zelensky keeps pushing for the escalation as part of his so-called “Victory Plan,” which has received little support from Western governments.Zelensky has been fuming over the lack of support for long-range strikes now that the US has said it believes about 10,000 North Korean troops are in Russia and have moved West to the Kursk Oblast, where they could join the fighting. For their part, Russia and North Korea have not confirmed the deployments, but when asked about the US claims in recent days, officials from both countries have pointed to the new military agreement that Moscow and Pyongyang signed earlier this year, which includes a mutual defense clause. North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui was in Moscow on Fridayand said North Korea would stand with Russia until it wins its war. “We will always stand firmly by our Russian comrades until victory day,” Choe said.
Elon Musk joined Trump for a phone call with Zelenskyy - President-elect Donald Trump put billionaire Elon Musk on the line with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy when the Ukrainian leader called to congratulate the incoming U.S. president, according to a Ukrainian official with direct knowledge of the phone call. The person, who was not authorized to comment on the matter publicly, confirmed that Zelenskyy and Musk spoke during the call with Trump, but that Musk did not appear to be on the line for the entire conversation. Trump seemingly handed his phone over to Musk, the person said, and that the Ukrainian president thanked the SpaceX owner for assisting his country with access to the Starlink satellite internet platform. Trump’s interactions with Zelenskyy are being closely watched as he prepares to take over the presidency on Jan. 20 and has signaled a shift in Washington’s steadfast support for Ukraine against Russia’s nearly three-year-old invasion, Trump promised to end the war swiftly and suggested that Kyiv agree to cede some territory to Moscow in return for peace. The Trump transition said it would not comment on private meetings.
Ukrainian Officials Feeling 'A Lot of Anxiety' After Trump Victory -- On Wednesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky congratulated President-elect Donald Trump on his “impressive election victory,” but behind the scenes, Ukrainian officials are really feeling “a lot of anxiety,” according to a report from Financial Times.Trump campaigned on ending the war in Ukraine, although he never laid out a plan to reach that goal. His running mate, Sen. J.D. Vance, has been more explicit, saying he favors a deal to end the war that would freeze the current battle lines and guarantee Ukrainian neutrality and independence but still allow some sort of US military assistance for Ukraine.An unnamed Ukrainian defense official told FT that many people in the Ukrainian military are “afraid” that a Trump victory means US aid will stop and “we’ll lose Donbas at least.”Another Ukrainian official said, “For us, [US] support means life or death. We need to convince Trump to be with us.”Vice President Kamala Harris campaigned to continue the proxy war, although Zelensky has signaled that he expected the conflict to wind down in 2025 no matter who won. He has been pushing his so-called “victory plan,” which calls for NATO to support long-range strikes in Russia, among other escalations.Zelensky said on Wednesday that when he spoke with Trump in September, they “discussed in detail the Ukraine-US strategic partnership, the Victory Plan, and ways to put an end to Russian aggression against Ukraine.” During his time in the White House, Trump escalated US involvement in Ukraine by providing Javelin anti-tank missiles, which marked the first US provision of “lethal aid” to Ukraine. Trump later briefly delayed a shipment of military aid to Ukraine, which was used by the House to impeach him over allegations he was seeking a “quid pro quo” to get Zelensky to investigate Biden’s involvement in Ukraine, a claim the Ukrainian leader has always denied.
Ukrainian army suffers major setbacks, as Trump election sows doubt on US war plans in Ukraine - The Ukrainian army is suffering major setbacks as uncertainty mounts over what US policy towards Ukraine will be after Donald Trump’s re-election as president. Yesterday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky hailed Trump, claiming his victory would in fact allow for greater US-NATO intervention against Russia in Ukraine. He said, “Congratulations to Donald Trump on his impressive election victory! I recall our great meeting with President Trump back in September, when we discussed in detail the Ukraine-US strategic partnership, the Victory Plan, and ways to put an end to Russian aggression against Ukraine.” But neither Zelensky’s “Victory Plan” nor Trump’s “Art of the Deal” will solve the catastrophe of the war in Ukraine. NATO was not waging a war to defend Ukrainian democracy against an aggressive but militarily inept Russian foe, as the NATO imperialist powers have claimed during the nearly three-year war, but using Ukrainians as cannon fodder in a failed attempt to crush Russia. It is increasingly difficult even for imperialist media to hide that Ukraine has been not liberated but shattered, and that opposition to the NATO war is mounting among Ukrainian workers. Ukrainian forces are in full retreat. In October, Russian troops took Vuhledar, a city southeast of Donetsk, and began threatening Toretsk and Pokrovsk. According to Western military analysts, Pokrovsk, a key strongpoint and logistical center, is the last major obstacle blocking a Russian march on Dnipro and the Dniepr River, which cuts Ukraine in two. If Russian troops advanced along this line, it could force the Ukrainian army to withdraw from all of southeastern Ukraine to avoid being encircled. The French military newsletter La Vigie stated: Advances [by Russian forces] from Avdivka to Pokrovsk and Toretsk and the bypassing of Vuhledar come after major efforts, in regions highly valued and aggressively defended by both sides. The current apparent resignation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine contrasts with their initial combativeness. … If Toretsk falls, all the central Donbass will be open to Russian troop maneuvers. If Pokrovsk falls, there is no defense behind it until one reaches the Dniepr. If Vuhledar falls, the unification of the [Russian] fronts in the Donbass and Zaporizhzhya is possible. Moreover, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskiy said yesterday that the Kremlin is massing 45,000 troops north of Ukraine, near Kursk. He said 10,000 North Korean troops had joined Russian troops there. These forces, he said, aim to seize the pocket of Russian territory near Kursk held by Ukrainian troops and then drive into northern Ukraine near Sumy. Russian drones and missiles are attacking military and strategic targets across Ukraine, which Ukraine’s air defenses are powerless to prevent. Yesterday, they claimed to have shot down 38 of 63 drones launched at nine regions of Ukraine: Odesa, Mykolayiv, Kyiv, Sumy, Kirovohrad, Zhytomyr, Cherkasy, Chernihiv and Zaporizhzhya. The governor of Zaporizhzhya reported that missile strikes on his region had killed seven and wounded 25 yesterday.
Biden Team Wants To Rush Weapons Shipments to Ukraine Before Trump Inauguration - The Biden administration is preparing to rush over $6 billion in military aid to Ukraine before Inauguration Day, POLITICO reported on Wednesday.The report said the Biden team expects the incoming administration to end the weapons flow, as President-elect Donald Trump campaigned on ending the proxy war.The Biden administration has $4.3 billion in military aid that can be pulled from existing US stockpiles, known as the Presidential Drawdown Authority. There is also $2.1 billion available in the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, which provides money to put weapons under contract, meaning it takes longer to deliver.Biden officials are unsure if they’ll be able to rush all the aid to Ukraine before January 20 since any military equipment they send must be replaced, and it’s unclear if production levels are high enough to ship so many weapons in such a short period of time.“We have been sending whatever industry can produce each month, but the problem is you can only send these things as they are produced,” Mark Cancian, a former Pentagon budget official, told POLITICO. “The administration could dip into the stockpiles and send equipment more quickly, but it’s unclear the Pentagon would want to do that since it would affect its own readiness.” Even if the weapons are sent from US military stockpiles, the actual delivery time could still take months, and Biden officials are worried the next administration could cancel them before they arrive in Ukraine.
Facing tariff threat, Europe eyes options to appease Trump, including LNG - The European Union is considering options to appease Donald Trump on his return to the White House as it braces for a resumption of U.S. tariffs and other trade threats plus tough exchanges on how to treat China. Trump warned shortly before his U.S. presidential victory that the 27-nation bloc will have to "pay a big price" for not buying enough American exports. Brussels recognizes that threats of 10% tariffs on all U.S. imports and 60% on those from China are credible, not just campaign rhetoric, EU officials say. The European Commission has already begun modeling the impact on the bloc as a whole and on those nations likely to be hardest hit. They could include major car producer Germany and Italy, the second largest EU exporter to the United States. Though cagey in public, some governments expressed anxiety in the lead-up to the election, EU diplomats say. In addition to the direct hit to a sluggish EU economy from tariffs on its products, the EU could face a second blow as Chinese producers, effectively facing greater barriers to the U.S., may steer more exports to Europe. In response to Trump's 2018 tariffs on EU steel, the EU put in place safeguard measures to limit imports of steel tariff-free to its markets. But these measures are due to expire in June 2026, with no extension possible under EU or WTO rules. The EU will seek to contact the future Trump administration before his inauguration and is already mulling future areas of cooperation that could ease or even remove the tariff threat. One possible field is liquefied natural gas (LNG), which the EU could import more of from the U.S. to ease the trade deficit that preoccupies Trump. In 2018, Trump and then EU Executive Chief Jean-Claude Juncker agreed a deal that included an EU wish to import more U.S. LNG. It helped ward off fresh tariffs on EU goods beyond steel and aluminum. Brussels hopes Trump will prove a president it can do business with again. Investments in the EU to diversify energy supply, particularly after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, could lead to increased LNG flows from the U.S., EU officials believe. Some EU diplomats suggest China, on which U.S. policy is likely to toughen, could be another area of cooperation, although the EU wish to stick to global trade rules and "de-risk" but not de-couple from China will make discussions tough. A Trump presidency has other major implications for Europe, which faces the long-term challenge of how to finance welfare spending for an aging population during modest economic growth. If Trump reduces support for the NATO military alliance and the Ukraine war, Europe's governments would have to fund increased defense spending from budgets already stretched by national debt levels close to 90% of output. Trump's proposals, if enacted, will weigh on European growth and likely lower inflation, especially if manufacturers, already suffering through a lengthy industrial recession, start to curb workforces. Increased imports from China could also weaken prices, while more U.S. oil drilling and coal production could add to deflationary pressures. Trump's inflationary tariffs and higher budget deficit will likely strengthen the U.S. dollar, so the U.S. may export some of its own inflation, but that will not be enough to offset the other factors that weigh on prices. This could force the European Central Bank to cut interest rates below 2% next year, where it will once again stimulate growth after several years of restrictive policies.
Opinion: Trump-led oil and gas export boom may go bust in Europe trade spat -- Oil and gas producers in the U.S. expect to find it easier to ramp up production and exploration under the incoming second administration of Donald Trump. Finding local and lucrative markets for their wares may be the bigger challenge. Producers expect the new administration to streamline permit processes relating to fossil fuel extraction and distribution that should result in a climb in U.S. oil and natural gas output, which is already at record highs. That bodes well for firms that export liquefied natural gas (LNG), crude oil and refined fuels and will likely encourage further growth in U.S. export capacity of those products. However, energy exporters also run the risk of getting caught in trade-related crossfire should Trump's plan to impose steep tariffs on a slew of imported goods trigger retaliatory responses in consumer markets. European nations are particularly likely to be targeted with tariffs by the incoming administration as the long-standing U.S. trade deficit with Europe - around $240 B annually - is a major irritant for Trump allies. President-elect Trump said last month that Europe would "pay a big price" for not buying enough American exports and has threatened to impose blanket tariffs on European goods. However, Europe is also the single largest market for both U.S. LNG and crude oil exports, accounting for 49% of all U.S. LNG shipments and 47% of U.S. crude exports this year, according to ship-tracking data from Kpler. Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Europe has had to import record volumes of fuels and oil from other suppliers, and the U.S. has been the main beneficiary by shipping out record volumes of those commodities. In 2023, U.S. LNG export revenue was > $30 B and two-thirds of all U.S. LNG shipments went to Europe, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and Kpler. The U.S. exported around $10 B of crude oil in 2023, with just under half sent to Europe, EIA data showed. Those U.S. LNG and oil shipments have resulted in a profit boom for U.S. exporters and valuable tax revenue for the U.S. Treasury which the next administration will want to protect. However, the high price tag of energy imports has also hurt European consumers and is accelerating Europe's energy transition away from fossil fuels. A slowdown in economic activity has also curbed industrial gas use and power consumption and has triggered a more than 20% drop in Europe's LNG imports over the first 10 months of 2024 from the same period of 2023. Europe's imports of U.S. crude oil have climbed to a record so far in 2024 but the continent's overall crude imports have contracted by around 1%, showed data from Kpler. This indicates that European energy product importers have scope to reduce purchases of U.S. LNG and crude as overall gas use remains stunted while crude supplies from alternative sellers are abundant. European policymakers are already planning responses to Trump's intended tariff impositions, wary of a potential deterioration in economic ties with a key trade partner while embroiled in a trade spat with China. Trade experts in Brussels - home to the European Union's policy arm - will want to avert any further souring in the region's economy and will likely seek to maintain strong ties with the U.S. during Trump's next term. However, they will not shy away from proposing tariff measures of their own during negotiations, if only to avert being steam-rolled by blanket tariff threats from the U.S. U.S. energy products are likely to be an attractive option for retaliatory tariffs as Europe can readily source LNG and oil from other keen sellers and thereby hurt U.S. suppliers without harming their own consumers. On paper, U.S. energy product exporters could redirect cargoes to other buyers if Europe somehow becomes shut off during a trade scuffle. But in reality, the loss of European buyers would be a heavy blow to U.S. firms, especially LNG exporters. All current U.S. LNG export terminals are located on either the East Coast or in the U.S. Gulf and so are better situated to service a Pan-Atlantic trade route than across the Pacific to buyers in Asia. The U.S. to Europe journey is also only a fraction of the distance and time to major buyers in Asia. The roughly 12-day trip from Cove Point LNG terminal in Maryland to Wilhelmshaven in Germany - a major European LNG import hub - is a third of the time of the trip to Guangdong in China, the world's largest LNG buyer. Longer journeys mean longer turnaround times for LNG sellers, who need speedy vessel turnover to maximize revenue. So while U.S. sellers could feasibly maintain total export volumes by redirecting cargoes if Europe became off limits, they would most likely incur sharply higher shipping costs and longer return times if they had to go to Asia instead.
China urges U.S. cooperation as Trump trade threat looms — China emphasized the need for greater cooperation with the U.S., a day after it became clear President-elect Donald Trump would become the next leader of the White House. "The Chinese side is willing, on the basis of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation, to increase communication with the U.S., expand cooperation and resolve differences," He Yongqian, spokesperson at China's Ministry of Commerce, told reporters Thursday in Mandarin, according to a CNBC translation. She was responding to a question about China's views and planned countermeasures, given the potential for increased U.S. tariffs and restrictions on high-end tech. "Together [we can] push China-U.S. economic and trade relations toward a stable, healthy and sustainable direction, for the benefit of both countries and the world," the commerce spokesperson said. Her comments echoed those of Chinese President Xi Jinping, who earlier in the day noted the benefits of bilateral cooperation in a congratulatory message to Trump, according to a Ministry of Foreign Affairs readout. Washington turned tougher on Beijing under Trump's first four-year term that began in 2017. This year, the president-elect threatened additional tariffs on Chinese goods while campaigning for his second mandate. Yue Su, principal economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said Trump will likely impose such tariffs in the first half of next year. She added that the Whiote House leader could speed up the process by invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act or Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows the president to impose tariffs of up to 15% in response to a serious balance-of-payments deficit. Other analysts are less concerned about a significant increase in U.S. tariffs targeting China. "Trump's current tariff proposal is likely the worst-case scenario," David Chao, Global Market Strategist, Asia Pacific (excluding Japan) at Invesco, said in a note Thursday. "I suspect the new administration will hold off imposing these tariffs in order to win concessions, whether that may be more purchases of American soybeans or even geopolitical ones." He added, "More so, I don't think Trump's proposed 60% tariff policy on China will significantly impact [multinational corporations'] confidence or sentiment." Chao nevertheless said that a potential 10% tariff on all exports to the U.S. would likely have a bigger impact, weakening global demand and hitting China and the rest of Asia.
Taiwan Receives Its First Batch of HIMARS Rocket Systems From the US - Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said Wednesday that the island received its first batch of US-made High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), which it first ordered in 2020.The HIMARS is a truck-mounted mobile rocket launch system that can fire a variety of munitions, including the Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), which Taiwan has purchased. The ATACMS have a range of about 186 miles.The US approval of a sale to Taiwan for HIMARS and ATACMS in 2020 was significant since it marked the first time the US offered weaponsthat could reach mainland China. The sale also included AGM-84H cruise missiles, which have a range of 168 miles and can be fired by Taiwan’s F-16 fighter jets.Taiwan ordered 11 of the HIMARS systems in 2020 and ordered another 18 in 2022. The island’s Defense Ministry said the first 11 have arrived, and Taiwanese troops are reportedly undergoing training to use them.The US has deployed troops to Taiwan for training in recent years, including on the outer islands of Kinmen, which are just a few miles off mainland China’s coast.Taiwanese troops were recently in the US training on HIMARS at Fort Sill, Oklahoma. Taiwan’s Central News Agency reported that at least 17 soldiers from Taiwan completed training on the HIMARS in August, and Fort Sill’s Facebook page shared a photo of the Taiwanese troops. The US has continued to increase military support for Taiwan despite constant warnings from China that the island is the “first red line” in US-China relations that must not be crossed.
BofA on Trump Policy -- CR Note: I'll be assessing the impact of Trump's election on the economy, but we have to remember he doesn't do most of what he says. For example, in 2016 he promised to deport 10 million residents, but that never happened. He said he'd repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act; didn't happen. He promised an infrastructure bill. Nope.But we do know he will increase tariffs and cut taxes on the wealthy. A few excerpts from a BofA research note:
- Tariffs:We think tariffs on China are likely to increase significantly and in short order after Trump assumes office. The outlook for tariffs against other countries is less clear. In our view, Europe could also see higher tariffs, but Mexico and Canada should continue to enjoy free trade relations with the US.
- Immigration and deregulation: We do not have a strong view on the timing and extent of changes to immigration policy. Roughly speaking, we would expect weaker immigration flows to be a mild, persistent headwind to labor supply and GDP growth. On the flip side, we think broad deregulation, including in energy and financial services, will likely be a tailwind to growth. Increased energy production could marginally offset the increase in headline inflation from tariffs and fiscal easing.
- Tariffs could derail the Fed cutting cycle:We don’t expect the Fed to pre-judge the Trump policy agenda. But we think it will pause the cutting cycle if large tariff increases are announced, assuming the economy is still on solid footing.
Trump's proposed tariffs could raise prices for consumers and slow spending --For retailers and consumers finally feeling some relief from inflation, President-elect Donald Trump's tariffs proposal introduces fresh uncertainty around how prices could change during his presidency, analysts said Wednesday.Trump, who NBC News projects won a second term in a decisive victory, said during his presidential campaign that he would impose a 10% to 20% tariff on all imports, including tariffs as high as 60% to 100% for goods from China. Companies, retail trade groups and industry analysts have warned the move could fuel higher prices on a wide range of Americans' purchases such as sneakers and party supplies. "The adoption of across-the-board tariffs on consumer goods and other non-strategic imports amounts to a tax on American families," National Retail Federation CEO Matthew Shay said in a statement Wednesday. "It will drive inflation and price increases and will result in job losses." Earlier this week, the NRF released a study on the impact of Trump's proposed tariff increases and said they would lead to "dramatic" double-digit-percentage price spikes in nearly all six retail categories that the trade group examines. Those categories are apparel, footwear, furniture, household appliances, travel goods, and toys. The cost of clothing, for example, could rise between 12.5% and 20.6%, the analysis found. The CEO of E.l.f. Beauty, which primarily relies on China to manufacture its beauty products, told CNBC in a Wednesday interview it could be forced to raise prices if the proposed tariff hikes take effect. "We do have pricing power. If we saw we needed to leverage pricing, we would," said E.l.f. CEO Tarang Amin. "It will depend on what we see in terms of the tariffs. It depends on the magnitude of the tariffs." In a research note Wednesday, GlobalData managing director Neil Saunders said tariff hikes would "create an enormous headache" for retailers, which are likely to pass those costs on to consumers. The result is likely to be softer spending from already price-conscious shoppers."Despite Trump's assertions to the contrary, tariffs are paid by the companies or entities importing goods and not by the countries themselves. This means the cost of buying products from overseas, whether directly or as an input for manufacturing, would rise sharply," said Saunders. "Given the trade between Chinese manufacturers and US retailers, a strict tariff policy would mean retailers initially either taking a massive hit on profits or being forced to put up prices, which would fuel inflation and dampen retail volume growth," he said.Over time, supply chains would adjust to this change in tariff policy but it would be "incredibly disruptive" in the short term, said Saunders."The small hope is that the tough talk on tariffs is more of a negotiating ploy and that what is finally implemented will be relatively modest in scope," he said.
Trump Spokesperson Affirms Day 1 Plans for Nation's 'Largest Mass Deportation Operation' -President-elect Donald Trump is set to begin his promised mass deportation of undocumented immigrants as soon as he takes office on January 20, 2025, even as rights groups are mobilizing to stop him. Trump national press secretary Karoline Leavitt toldFox News Wednesday morning that "the American people delivered a resounding victory for President Trump.""It gives him a mandate to govern as he campaigned, to deliver on the promises that he made, which include, on Day 1, launching the largest mass deportation operation of illegal immigrants that Kamala Harris has allowed into this country," Leavitt said."We have a simple message for President-elect Trump or his deputies if they decide to make good on their despicable plans: We will see you in court."Trump has pledged to conduct the largest deportation in U.S. history, with running mate and now Vice President-elect JD Vance promising 1 million deportations each year. The plan would likely rely on mobilizing federal agencies, the military, diplomats, and Republican-led states while using federal funds to pressure uncooperative states and cities into complying.The stocks of private prison companies like GEOGroup and Core Civicrose significantly after Trump's win, and private contractors had already been discussing ahead of the election how to build enough detention space to accommodate Trump's plans. A study released by the American Immigration Council in October foundthat a massive, one-time deportation program of the estimated 13.3 million migrants in the country without legal status would cost the government at least $315 billion while a 1-million-a-year approach would cost $88 billion a year for a total of $967.9 billion. It would also shrink the nation's gross domestic product by between 4.2 and 6.8%, not to mention the massive human cost to immigrant families, as around 5.1 million children who are U.S. citizens live with an undocumented family member.The council also warned that such a program would likely threaten the well-being of all immigrants and increase vigilantism and hate crimes. "As bad as the first Trump administration was for immigrants, we anticipate it will be much worse this time and are particularly concerned about the use of the military to round up immigrants," Lee Gelernt, a lawyer with the American Civil Liberties Union who fought the first Trump administration on family separation and other policies,toldThe Washington Post. "As always, we will go to court to challenge illegal policies, but it is equally essential that the public push back, as it did with family separation."
Trump's immigration plan: 'No price tag' for mass deportations --President-elect Trump said in an interview Thursday with NBC News that “there is no price tag” when it comes to his mass deportation plan.Throughout the campaign cycle, Trump touted a “Day 1 agenda” that oftentimes focused on border and immigration crackdowns, saying at nearly every rally, “On Day 1, I will launch the largest deportation program in American history.” Trump has said the mass deportations will target those in the country illegally and especially those with a criminal record. He has also said he will largely rely on local police departments for assistance, but the program will need coordination with federal agencies and would likely face pushback from some local jurisdictions.When asked about the finances of his plan during his interview with NBC News, Trump insisted that “there is no price tag.”“It’s not a question of a price tag. It’s not — really, we have no choice. When people have killed and murdered, when drug lords have destroyed countries, and now they’re going to go back to those countries because they’re not staying here. There is no price tag,” he said, as reported by NBC News.Trump had also said during the interview that people should still be able to come into the country.“We obviously have to make the border strong and powerful and, and we have to — at the same time, we want people to come into our country,” he said. “And you know, I’m not somebody that says, ‘No, you can’t come in.’ We want people to come in,” NBC News reported that Trump said during the phone interview.Though Democrats tried to pry Latino voters away from Trump using his remarks about immigrants and a racist joke about Puerto Rico told by a comedian at one of his recent rallies, his performance among Latino voters showed significant support.A CNN exit poll revealed that Trump won Latino men by 12 points over Vice President Harris — a 35-point swing since 2020, when President Biden won the group by 23 points. Harris, however, did comfortably win among Latino women, pulling ahead of Trump by 22 points, but that is a stark difference to the 39-point lead that broke for Biden among the cohort just four years ago.The poll also showed Harris winning Latino voters over Trump 52 percent to 46 percent, which is a single-digit lead compared to Biden, who outpaced Trump among the group, with 65 percent support to Trump’s 32 percent in 2020.
Illinois governor tells Trump: ‘You come for my people, you come through me’ -Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker (D) held a press conference Thursday to discuss the aftermath of the election, issuing a warning that if anyone tries to “come for my people,” they will have to “come through me.”“People have often said that I’m a happy warrior, and I’ve always taken seriously my role as a happy warrior on behalf of this state. Even today, when I’m struggling with many of the difficult questions this election poses, my optimism for the future remains undiminished,” Pritzker said.“To anyone who intends to come take away the freedom and opportunity and dignity of Illinoisans: I would remind you that a happy warrior is still a warrior,” he continued. “You come for my people, you come through me.”The governor noted that in his state, he will continue working to protect all people, no matter what a second Trump term looks like.“Perhaps this time may be different. But if it isn’t, Illinois will remain a place of stability and competent governance,” Pritzker said.
Trump unlikely to undo Biden's IRA climate legislation, TotalEnergies executive says - French oil major TotalEnergies does not anticipate that Donald Trump would pull the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement on climate change or undo Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) legislation, the company's strategy director said on Monday. Aurelien Hamelle made the comments while presenting Total's energy outlook forecasting global demand scenarios to 2050. The company's current trends scenario also does not project a lifting of the current U.S. ban on new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities. Trump had campaigned on a platform involving a rollback of climate regulations passed under President Joe Biden designed to curb the release of greenhouse gases from the oil and gas industry. That includes leaving the Paris Agreement, under which countries pledge to limit global warming to 2°C by 2050, and potentially undoing Biden's flagship IRA, which provides massive subsidies and incentives to clean energy technologies. TotalEnergies is a major buyer of U.S. natural gas for export, with 10 metric MMtpy under contract, several upstream U.S. shale field holdings, and a pipeline of future projects. The company also has a 25-gigawatt (GW) portfolio of solar, wind and battery projects in the U.S., and is considering several production sites for renewable fuels. "We take into account existing legislation in our current trends scenario, and for the IRA to be called into question you would need a Republican-controlled Congress, which the polls say is unlikely," Hamelle said. "What we also see with the IRA, which has offered a framework of support for private finance in all low-carbon technologies, is that Republican states and districts have also benefited from the job creation ... What is clear is that the United States will set the pace of the global energy transition ... We have not forecast a 'worse than current trends' scenario."
The Inflation Reduction Act: A Looming Political Earthquake -If it weren’t for the election season swamping news coverage, odds are more people would be talking about the revelation that, to quote a Bloomberg headline, “The World Bank Somehow Lost Track of at Least $24 Billion.” In fact, that may understate the reality: the World Bank’s “accounting gap” could be as big as $41 billion. The missing funds in question were for “climate finance” projects, “financed by taxpayer dollars from its member countries, the biggest being the US.” According to the Oxfam report that was the source for the Bloomberg story, “There is no clear public record showing where this money went or how it was used, which makes any assessment of its impacts impossible.” It is possible that much, maybe even most, of the missing money went to the intended people and purposes. But only the hopelessly naïve would dismiss the probability of rampant waste, malfeasance, graft, and outright theft as explanations for that “gap.” Spending of such magnitude and velocity with sloppy oversight is an invitation to thieves. But the oversight scandal at the World Bank is chump change compared with the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and its massive planned “climate finance” program. The misnamed IRA is, in the words of its advocates, the “largest climate policy in US history.” The law’s ambitions dwarf those of the World Bank. By various estimates, the IRA will lead to some $3 trillion in direct spending on grants, subsidies, and the like, plus another $3 trillion in related spending induced by mandates and rules. For perspective, that’s far more than the cost of Obamacare, and even more than the $4 trillion the U.S. spent (inflation adjusted) to fight World War II. It makes zero difference which side you’re on regarding the urgency of climate change: the associated policies and spending are almost entirely about trying to create an “energy transition.” Nor does it matter what you think about whether such a transition is sensible (it isn’t): the sheer immensity of IRA spending represents a “whole of government” opportunity for waste, abuse, and fraud on an unprecedented scale.If the likelihood for waste and abuse doesn’t strike you as obvious, consider a few well-documented features of federal spending in general. A March 2024 Government Accountability Office (GAO) report on overall federal government spending in FY2023 found that “more than $175 billion of errors were overpayments—for example, payments to deceased individuals or those no longer eligible for government programs,” and “$44.6 billion were unknown payments.” [emphasis added] The only “good news,” the GAO wrote, was that the “unknown” was $11 billion less than in the previous fiscal year, when Covid money was still being liberally ladled out. Again, only the naïve would conclude that waste, fraud, and abuse didn’t account for any of those “unknown” payments and “errors” in the normal course of our government’s $6 trillion annual budget. Now along comes the IRA, another federal government gusher, with its overall $6 trillion directed at “climate finance,” with far fewer administrative and oversight guardrails than one normally finds in federal programs. What could go wrong?
Will Musk Influence Trump on Climate Change and Electric Vehicles? - The New York Times -- Elon Musk has described himself as “pro-environment” and “super pro climate.” But he also threw himself wholeheartedly into electing as president someone who has dismissed global warming as a hoax.Now, as President-elect Donald J. Trump prepares to enter the White House, one big question is how much sway — if any — Mr. Musk’s views on climate change and clean energy might have in the new administration.During the campaign, Mr. Trump noticeably softened his rhetoric on electric vehicles as he grew more friendly with Mr. Musk, the billionaire chief executive of Tesla. After months of bashing plug-in cars and promising to halt their sales, Mr. Trump backtracked slightly this summer.“I’m constantly talking about electric vehicles, but I don’t mean I’m against them. I’m totally for them,” he told a crowd in Michigan. “I’ve driven them and they are incredible, but they’re not for everybody.”At the time, Mr. Musk claimed credit for Mr. Trump’s apparent shift, telling Tesla shareholders at a June meeting, “I can be persuasive.” Referring to Mr. Trump, he said, “A lot of his friends now have Teslas, and they all love it. And he’s a huge fan of the Cybertruck. So I think those may be contributing factors.” Now Mr. Musk, who spent election night at Mr. Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence and posed for a group photograph with the president-elect’s family, is expected to have a direct line to the White House in the coming months. Mr. Musk’s companies, including Tesla and SpaceX, already make billions from government contracts and federal policies, and he is expected to seek additional advantages for his businesses.
Pollster Frank Luntz warns of impact of Trump victory on Supreme Court -- Republican pollster Frank Luntz warned of the impact former President Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election would have on the U.S. Supreme Court. “The Supreme Court, with the Senate going red and with Trump at this point more than likely to be elected, still not a sure thing, but if he gets elected then he gets the appointment and with the Senate going Republican whomever he wants is going to end up on the Supreme Court,” Luntz said during his Tuesday night appearance on NewsNation. “That is about as big of an impact as you can have this election evening because there are a couple justices that will probably be retiring in the next year or two,” he added without noting which justices might be retiring soon. Luntz’s remarks came before Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) called Pennsylvania, a battleground state, for Trump and ultimately the election itself on early Wednesday for the Republican nominee. During his first term in the White House, Trump appointed three justices: Justices Brett Kavanaugh, Neil Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett. With their addition to the bench, Roe. v. Wade was overturned in 2022, ending the federal right to abortion and punting it back to the states. The pollster argued that with a majority in the Senate, Trump will have an easier time implementing some of his policy proposals. “If he has the Senate, it becomes easier for him to put forward his economic policies and some of it doesn’t even require a vote of Congress, but if you’re looking for that, that tariff policy is more likely than not to come into play,” Luntz said.
House Democrats urge southern states to address potential insurance fraud -- Democrats on the House Oversight Committee are calling on five southern states to explain how they are keeping constituents from being ripped off by insurance companies. As communities across the Southeast begin repairing the damage from Hurricanes Helene and Milton, “we must ensure that they are not further victimized by insurance companies refusing to fairly pay out claims,” Ranking Member Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) wrote, in a letter co-signed by Democratic Florida Reps. Jared Moskowitz and Maxwell Frost. The letters to the governments of Tennessee, North and South Carolina, Georgia and Florida come as the onslaught of the two hurricanes this fall exposed gaping holes in the nation’s flood insurance coverage.Those gaps, as well as the increasing withdrawal of insurance companies from areas at risk of natural disaster, represent a weak point in the systems of municipal finance that serve as the lifeblood for cities and towns across the U.S., and threaten to drive them into economic death spirals if home insurance fails. On a smaller scale, losing insurance coverage before a storm — or having claims denied after — can wipe out the life savings of homeowners, leaving them with a totalled house they can neither sell nor afford to repair.So far, insurers in the state of Florida alone have already denied 37,000 claims in the aftermath of Milton and Helene — or 10 percent of the total number that have been submitted, Newsweek reported And September reporting by CBS News uncovered widespread allegations by former insurance industry claims adjusters that the companies they worked for had previously altered their reports to avoid paying out claims to Florida homeowners.Separate reporting by The Washington Post found that Florida homeowners received payouts “45 to 97 percent” lower than the damages estimated by field adjusters after Ian. In a sense, the House Oversight lawmakers acknowledged in their letters, such issues in the insurance industry are nothing new. “There is a decades-long pattern of bad actors in the insurance industry—both large and small insurers—shortchanging customers in the wake of natural disasters,” the members wrote to the governments of the five states.But they emphasized that risk of nonpayment of coverage consumers paid for was particularly urgent as climate change drives up the number of billion dollar disasters, “and as hurricanes reach further inland and higher elevations.” In particular, they flagged three potential methods by which insurance buyers could be defrauded — and called on the states to specifically collect documents on them. First, the lawmakers wrote, there are cases in which an insurance company revises the damage amounts logged by a field adjuster by more than 90 percent — the type of distortion reported on by the Post and CBS. Then, they continued, there are cases in which claims are cut by more than 10 percent on the basis that they are flood damage — a form of insurance that few Americans have, and virtually none of those who took significant damage during Helene — rather than wind damage, which is commonly covered. Finally, the members called on state regulators to audit the guidance that insurance companies were giving to employees and contractors about how to process — and when to deny — claims. In contrast with the actions called for in the letter, Florida has sought to tackle the rising costs — and widespread de-insurance — in its insurance sector by targeting not insurers’ practices, but those of homeowners who take legal action against them.
Elizabeth Warren, Adam Schiff urge FTC, USDA to probe grocery chains' pricing - Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) are calling on administration officials to investigate Albertsons and other major grocery chains for “predatory practices” they say may have violated federal laws. Warren and Schiff wrote a letter to Federal Trade Commission Chair Lina Khan and Department of Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack asking them to investigate whether the grocers are overcharging customers. The lawmakers noted that last month, California district attorneys reached a nearly $4 million settlement with Albertsons and its subsidiaries, Safeway and Vons, after it was found they “unlawfully charged customers prices higher than their lowest advertised or posted price” and overcharged people by placing inaccurate weights on labels for products. For example, if a product was sold based on an item’s net weight, the grocer would overcharge customers by including the weight of the packaging in the cost, the Democrats said in a press release. “Albertsons is one of the largest food retailers in the United States, boasting over 2,200 stores across the country. This settlement covers the 589 Albertsons stores in California, but all U.S. customers should be protected from predatory pricing,” the lawmakers wrote in their letter. Warren and Schiff are urging Khan and Vilsack to investigate whether other Albertsons stores or other grocery chains across the country have participated in “similar wrongdoing” and hold the parties responsible. Warren is one of the leading lawmakers tackling price gouging and inflated prices at grocery stores for Americans. The lawmakers noted that Albertsons’s proposed $24.6 billion merger with Kroger threatens to drive up prices and “harm grocery store workers and consumers. In an emailed statement, a spokesperson for Albertsons Companies said the organization is committed to customers paying the “lowest advertised price on a product.” “We closely follow all local pricing rules and regulations in the various communities where we operate, and we work quickly to correct any price discrepancies,” the spokesperson said. The spokesperson’s statement said the lawsuit filed in California stemmed from administrative errors at a local store level and the company has since made changes to its processes to reduce the risk of a similar error happening in the future. The Federal Trade Commission confirmed it had received the letter from the Democrats, but had no further comment.
Wartime economy vs. public education: Harris’ platform promotes the school-to-military industry pipeline - No matter which of the two big-business candidates for US president takes office, Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, the frontal assault on the social right to high-quality public education will escalate. Alongside the termination of thousands of jobs and the reorganization of US industries, including mass layoffs of auto, tech and logistics workers, the education system is being upended and thousands of school workers are losing their jobs. Schools are being put on rations in both “red” and “blue” states.The goals of education are themselves being degraded through this bipartisan policy. In numerous ways, young people are being discouraged from pursuing their interests and intellect, and instead being groomed to enter the workforce or military, and the sooner the better. Discipline and obedience are promoted, with growing numbers of police in the schools, endless shooting drills, cell phone bans, library and book bans. Military recruiters are being invited onto campuses and the ROTC (Reserve Officers’ Training Corps) is being promoted in middle and high schools. Brutality is becoming routine.For their part, Trump and the Republicans make no pretense of improving working class schools, instead pushing for a vast expansion of vouchers and other forms of taxpayer funding for private schools. Project 2025, written by Trump supporters and former aides, calls for an end to the US Department of Education and the transformation of Title I (federal assistance for public schools) and IDEA (Individuals with Disabilities Education Act) into block grants in order to cut their budgets. The fascist Republicans are using their “anti-DEI” campaigns to demonize educators and students, censor educational materials, and demand the promotion of religion, the military and patriotism in schools.The Democrats—also fully serving Wall Street—seek the same ends, just by slightly different means. Under the Democratic administration of Biden/Harris, COVID-19 ESSER (Elementary and Secondary School Emergency Relief) funds have been terminated, and districts across the country are shutting schools, ending tutoring, and laying off teachers, nurses, counselors and support staff. The job outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. puts 2024 cuts to education jobs at 25,396, up 222 percent from last year. This is just the beginning, with as many as 384,000 education jobs to be cut, according to industry consultant Chad Ferguson.These cuts are devastating districts from coast to coast. To give a sense of the widespread assault, one can point to over 100 schools at risk for closure or consolidation in Chicago, up to 13 schools to be closed or merged in Milwaukee, 14 schools slated for closure or consolidation as well as the closure of three alternative or special education programs in Pittsburgh, and more. This week, teachers in Ann Arbor, Michigan told the media that they face a possible doubling of their healthcare costs. Albany, Oregon teachers voted by 92 percent to strike in opposition to low pay, overcrowded classrooms and lack of resources for students. For decades, the Democrats have boasted of supporting “school reform” privatization schemes and, together with the Republicans, systematically cutting budgets. The priority of the Democratic Party is the corporate-financial oligarchy’s demand for expanding US wars of aggression. Discussion in ruling circles is that the US is heading for “total war,” requiring a “whole society” effort and a wartime economy.The ruling class sees funding for public education as an overall deduction from the surplus value created by the working class, and, as such, a diversion from profits. Any social resources that once went into schools and social programs are being diverted to war.The Biden/Harris administration has allocated over $1 trillion in the current budget for military spending, an all-time record. These vast sums are supplemented by many hundreds of millions of special appropriations to the fascist Netanyahu regime, which is carrying out genocide in Gaza and now raining down death on Lebanon. Hundreds of millions of dollars have been allocated for the proxy war in Ukraine being conducted by the US and NATO against nuclear-armed Russia.The demands of “total war” mean not just budget cuts, but also more munitions and more enlistments. To that end, millions in new dollars are being made available to promote technical training for semiconductor production and other necessary war-time goods.Kamala Harris toured Michigan’s Hemlock Semiconductor Plant this past Monday to emphasize her support for expanding semiconductor manufacturing in the US, which has been a major aspect of the Biden administration’s preparations for war. Harris’ tour coincided with the announcement of hiring at a nearby new facility that is set to become the nation’s largest silicon wafer production plant, a key component in semiconductor manufacturing.At the plant, she said, “I believe that as we think of industries of the future and the future of America’s workforce, we need to get beyond this idea that the only high skilled jobs require a college degree.” She proceeded to declare that one of her first actions as president would be to reassess federal jobs and identify which ones did not require a college degree.Harris’ comments are nearly identical to those which the Biden administration has been emphasizing to youth as part of a strategy to shift semiconductor production to the United States. Last year, President Biden’s wife, Dr. Jill Biden, was featured in Teen Vogue magazine with stories of her visiting community colleges and telling young people, “You don’t need a four-year degree to get a good-paying job.” Labor Secretary Julie Su traveled with her to promote the US Department of Labor’s “Youth Employment Works” strategy, which is directed at expanding employment for young people 14 to 24 years of age.
No pardon planned for Hunter Biden, White House says -The White House said Thursday there are still no plans for President Biden to pardon his son, Hunter, before leaving office, in the wake of President-elect Trump’s victory.“Our answer stands, which is no,” press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters.Asked about the possibility of a commutation, Jean-Pierre said, “That’s not what we’re going to do.”Hunter Biden, the son of the president, was found guilty in June of lying about his use of illicit drugs when applying to purchase a gun six years ago and unlawfully possessing it thereafter, marking the first criminal conviction of a sitting president’s child.A federal judge agreed to push back Hunter Biden’s sentencing to Dec. 4. Hunter Biden in September pleaded guilty to all nine federal tax charges he faced, staving off his second criminal trial this year, just before it was set to begin.President Biden and other White House officials have repeatedly said he would not pardon his son before leaving office.Trump said late last month that he would not rule out a pardon for Hunter Biden if he were to win the election.“I wouldn’t take it off the books. See, unlike Joe Biden, despite what they’ve done to me, where they’ve gone after me so viciously, despite what — and Hunter’s a bad boy. There’s no question about it. He’s been a bad boy,” Trump told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt.
Judge allows Elon Musk $1 million daily giveaway to continue - A Pennsylvania judge on Monday refused the Philadelphia district attorney’s request to block daily $1 million giveaways from Elon Musk’s pro-Trump super PAC in the lead-up to the election. Judge Angelo Foglietta refused to block the giveaways in a one-page order with no explanation. He said he would detail his reasoning in writing separately.The decision comes just one day before Election Day, the final day that America PAC plans to hand out a $1 million check to a registered swing state voter. Musk’s lawyer Chris Gober argued at Monday’s hearing that the super PAC does not choose winners at random but rather for their potential as spokespeople, seeking to contradict Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner’s (D) accusation that it is running an “illegal lottery.” “The $1 million recipients are not chosen by chance. We know exactly who will be announced as the $1 million recipient today and tomorrow,” Gober said, according to The Associated Press. He also noted that America PAC’s final giveaways will go to registered voters in Arizona and Michigan and will not impact Pennsylvania. The super PAC launched the giveaway in late October. Registered voters in seven swing states, including Pennsylvania, who signed the PAC’s petition supporting free speech and the right to bear arms were eligible. America PAC has handed out 16 checks worth $1 million each so far, with four going to registered voters in Pennsylvania. Krasner sued Musk and his super PAC last week, accusing them of running an “illegal lottery” under Pennsylvania state law and asking the court to put the giveaways on hold ahead of the election. The Philadelphia district attorney said Monday he would also seek financial penalties against Musk and America PAC, according to Reuters. Musk’s lawyers attempted to move the case to federal court. However, U.S. District Judge Gerald Pappert rejected the request Friday, sending the case back to state court and allowing a hearing to proceed before Election Day.
MLK Jr's daughter denounces AI-generated video praising Trump - Bernice King, daughter of civil rights icon Martin Luther King Jr., is calling for a Trump-supporting social media account to remove an AI-generated ad featuring her father. In a video posted to X, the account @MAGAResource shares a “deepfake” video of King praising former President Trump. “We’ve been told again and again that we cannot vote for the man that did more for the Black community than any other president,” the ad begins, with King’s famed baritone. “If a Black man dares speak out in support of Donald Trump, a Democrat is always there to call that man an Uncle Tom, a house negro or even worse.” The ad alleged that Democrats are failing Black Americans and have taken the demographic for granted for decades. The account the video was posted to is not officially affiliated with the Trump campaign. Bernice King denounced the video, demanding the account delete it and saying that it stands in opposition to everything her father was for. “It’s vile, fake, irresponsible, and not at all reflective of what my father would say,” King wrote. “And you gave no thought to our family.” The King family has become increasingly involved in the 2024 presidential race, with some members endorsing first President Biden then Vice President Harris. They have repeatedly denounced Trump, particularly as the GOP nominee has continually invoked the civil rights legend’s name.
Meta Extends Restrictions On New Election Ads Past Tuesday -- Meta announced Monday it is extending its ban on new ads about social issues, elections or politics generally to an unspecified time later this week—a decision that came just one day before the ban was set to expire on Election Day. Meta said the restriction period for new ads related to the three topics “is being extended until later this week” in an update posted to the policy page Monday.The policy—which prevents any new political ads during the final week before the general election—was first put in place in 2020 as a way to “recognize there may not be enough time to contest new claims made in ads” in the final days before an election.Meta announced on Sept. 30 the policy would be in place this year, and originally said the ban on new ads—meaning they hadn’t served at least one impression—would run from 12:01 a.m. PDT on Oct. 29 through 11:59 p.m. PST on Tuesday.The policy was first put in place during the 2020 presidential election, with CEO Mark Zuckerberg saying at the time that while he believes “the best antidote to bad speech is more speech,” there wouldn’t be enough time before the election to contest new claims made by either side. Political and issue-based ads that had already run were still allowed because they would have already been published, allowing “fact-checkers and journalists (to) scrutinize them.” When the policy first went into effect in late October 2020 it faced struggles, with some political advertisers saying ads were being incorrectly blocked or complaining there were still misleading posts that broke rules, The Washington Post reported. CNBC reported some advertisers limited ad spending on Facebook in the 2022 election cycle after the ban was implemented again. This year from Oct. 26 to Nov. 1, pages supporting both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have spent millions of dollars on advertising on Meta platforms, according to Meta’s advertising data.Google is also blocking election ads, but only after the last polls close Tuesday. U.S. election ads and ads referring to the processes or outcomes of the election will not be allowed, though “public information campaign ads run by state or federal government bodies responsible for administering election processes” are allowed. Google did not specify when its ban will end.
Election Day bomb threats disrupt swing state voting -The U.S. saw a rash of discredited bomb threats called in at polling places in multiple states on Election Day, in some cases spurring the need for extended voting hours. Faulty bomb threats were called into at least five states, something the FBI later attributed to Russian accounts. At least seven different polling locations in Georgia were targeted with bomb threats, something Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R) likewise attributed to a “foreign state actor.” Similar threats were made at polling places in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, along with hoax bomb threats made at polling places in the Navajo Nation in Arizona. None of the bomb threats were deemed credible, but they nonetheless caused disruption at polling places, sparking evacuations and delays. “We’ve also been made aware that in the course of the last hour, multiple bomb threats have been called into polling locations and municipal buildings across Pennsylvania,” Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) said at a press conference Tuesday. “State and local law enforcement, along with the FBI, are investigating these threats and thus far there is no credible threat to the public.” The FBI attributed the threats in multiple states to Russia, noting the threats stemmed from Russian accounts. “The FBI is aware of bomb threats to polling locations in several states, many of which appear to originate from Russian email domains,” the FBI said in a statement. “None of the threats have been determined to be credible thus far.”
New York officials seized social media star Peanut the squirrel from its owner and killed it, becomes a political issue days before presidential elections - On 30 October, an orphaned squirrel named Peanut, who became a social media sensation, was euthanised by New York state officials after being seized from the home of his caretaker, Mark Longo. According to reports, New York officials raided Longo’s house and seized the squirrel along with a rescued raccoon named Fred. Both animals were euthanized on the same day they were taken from Longo, apparently to test if they had rabies.The death of the beloved squirrel has sparked a backlash among fans of Peanut and animal welfare advocates. The matter has now become linked to the ongoing US Presidential Elections, with Republicans slamming the govt accusing it of overreach. Billionaire Elon Musk also voiced support for Longo.Authorities from New York’s Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) and Chemung County’s health department raided Longo’s house based on a complaint alleging potential health risks related to housing wildlife. Following the raid, Peanut and Fred were removed from Longo’s home in Pine City. Reportedly, a woman named Monica Keasler had lodged the complaint.Based on the complaint, a judge issueds a search warrant, after which officers from the state Department of Environmental Conservation raided Mark Longo’s house, and took away the two animals after a 5-hour search. “On Oct. 30, DEC seized a raccoon and squirrel sharing a residence with humans, creating the potential for human exposure to rabies,” officials said. Officials claimed that during the seizure, a DEC officer was bitten by the squirrel. As a result, both animals were subsequently euthanised to test for rabies. A joint statement from DEC and Chemung County confirmed, “The animals are being tested for rabies, and anyone in contact with these animals is encouraged to consult their physician.”However, Longo has denied that the squirrel bit anyone, saying he didn’t witness any such incident. Peanut, the beloved squirrel which was rescued and lived in the Longo’s house for 7 years, had garnered tens of thousands of followers on Instagram and TikTok. Longo frequently posted videos of Peanut performing tricks, enjoying snacks, and wearing tiny hats. After rescuing the squirrel, Mark started an animal rescue initiative called P’Nuts Freedom Farm Animal Sanctuary.Following the squirrel’s death, heartbroken fans expressed outrage on social media. A post from Peanut’s Instagram account criticised the decision to euthanise the animals, calling it a “devastating decision” that left the sanctuary community in shock. He stated that he was in the process of securing a certification for Peanut as an educational animal when the seizure occurred. He alleged that officials used excessive force during the seizure and that the raid continued for hours, during which he was not allowed to feed his rescued animals, including horses.
Trump claims 'powerful mandate' after Fox News projects he has won US presidency (Reuters) - Republican Donald Trump claimed victory in the 2024 presidential contest after Fox News projected that he had defeated Democrat Kamala Harris, which would cap a stunning political comeback four years after he left the White House."America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate," he said early on Wednesday to a roaring crowd of supporters at the Palm Beach County Convention Center, flanked by his vice presidential running mate, Senator JD Vance, Republican leaders and members of Trump's family.He also spent several minutes praising Elon Musk, the richest man in the world, who pumped some $120 million into backing Trump's campaign. Trump has said he will appoint Musk to lead a government efficiency commission.Other news outlets had yet to call the race for Trump, but he appeared on the verge of winning after capturing the battleground states of Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia and holding leads in the other four, according to Edison Research. Harris did not speak to her supporters, who had gathered at her alma mater Howard University. Her campaign co-chair, Cedric Richmond, briefly addressed the crowd after midnight, saying Harris would speak publicly on Wednesday. The former president was showing strength across broad swaths of the country, improving on his 2020 performance everywhere from rural areas to urban centers.Republicans won a U.S. Senate majority after flipping Democratic seats in West Virginia and Ohio. Neither party appeared to have an edge in the fight for control of the House of Representatives where Republicans currently hold a narrow majority.Trump went into Election Day with a 50-50 chance of reclaiming the White House, a remarkable turnaround from Jan. 6, 2021, when many pundits pronounced his political career to be over. That day, a mob of his supporters stormed Congress in a violent attempt to overturn the results of the 2020 election.Trump picked up more support from Hispanics, traditionally Democratic voters, and among lower-income households that have keenly felt the sting of price rises since the last presidential election in 2020, according to exit polls from Edison.Trump won 45% of Hispanic voters nationwide, trailing Harris with 53% but up 13 percentage points from 2020.About 31% of voters said the economy was their top issue, and they voted for Trump by a 79%-to-20% margin, according to exit polls. Some 45% of voters across the country said their family's financial situation was worse off today than four years ago, and they favored Trump 80% to 17%.Global investors were increasingly pricing in a Trump win late on Tuesday. U.S. stock futures and the dollar pushed higher, while Treasury yields climbed and bitcoin rose - all flagged by analysts and investors as trades that favor a Trump victory.No matter who won the election, history was in the making. Trump, 78, the only president to be impeached twice and the first former president to be criminally convicted, would also become the first president to win non-consecutive terms in more than a century and would be the oldest presidential candidate ever elected.
David Axelrod says racism, sexism partly to blame for Kamala Harris's loss -- Democratic strategist David Axelrod called out “racial bias” and “sexism” for what he labeled as their “impact” on the outcome of the presidential election. “Let’s be honest about this. Let’s be absolutely blunt about it: There were appeals to racism in this campaign, and there is racial bias in this country, and there is sexism in this country,” Axelrod said on CNN early Wednesday morning, after former President Trump was projected as the winner over Vice President Harris.“And anybody who thinks that that did not in any way impact on the outcome of this race is wrong,” he added in the interview, highlighted by Mediaite. The strategist noted, however, that he doesn’t think these are the main reasons why Harris lost and Trump secured a second term. He also commended the former president’s team for running a “very smart” campaign. “I think they ran, honestly, strategically, his campaign — and I’ve said it many times — they ran a very smart campaign,” he said. “It was an ultimately rational, well-conceived and well-executed campaign for an irrational, often irrational candidate.” Harris addressed sexism, along with several other topics top of mind for voters, in an interview with NBC News last month, dismissing concerns that sexism is at play in the race.“Well, I’m clearly a woman; I don’t need to point that out to anyone,” Harris said at the time. “The point that most people really care about is: Can you do the job, and do you have a plan to actually focus on them?”When asked if the country is ready for a woman and a woman of color to be president, the vice president replied, “Absolutely. And I am seeing that in terms of every walk of life of our country.”A September survey from The Associated Press/NORC Research Center showed 38 percent of voters think being a woman hurt Harris’s chances of winning, and only 13 percent of voters said the same about the GOP nominee. The claim that sexism and racism are present in the race was amplified last month as Rep.Maxwell Frost (D-Fla.) said he thinks they “still exist” in U.S. politics, citing the presidential race as an example. “We’ve come a long way in terms of making sure of equity in this country, but there’s still a lot of this bigotry in this country in terms of sexism, in terms of racism. And we still have to work at getting over that.”
US election 2024: Netanyahu and Starmer lead world leader congratulating Trump – BBC - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the UK's Keir Starmer have been among the first world leaders to congratulate Donald Trump - the projected winner of the US presidential election. The election of a new president is not just a big deal for the US - a new leader in the White House can transform the country's foreign policy and its position towards its friends and foes internationally. Here is how some of the world's leaders have reacted so far. In his statement, Netanyahu - who has had a difficult relationship with President Joe Biden - spoke of "history’s greatest comeback", adding that Trump's return to office offered a "new beginning for America, a powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America". UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said: "I look forward to working with Trump in the years ahead". “From growth and security to innovation and tech, I know that the UK-US special relationship will continue to prosper on both sides of the Atlantic for years to come,” Sir Keir added. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban - a close Trump ally - said his election was "a much-needed victory for the world". "The biggest comeback in US political history!" he wrote in a post on X. Orban had openly endorsed Mr Trump's re-election bid, after being the first and only EU leader to back him in 2016. X/Reuters Orban standing next to Trump, both with their thumbs upX/Reuters Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban meets Donald Trump at Trump's Mar-a-Lago home in Florida in July 2024 French President Emmanuel Macron also congratulated Trump, saying he was ready to work together with him just as before, "with respect and ambition. For more peace and prosperity". Macron also said that he had held talks with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, over working to defend Europe's interests and values while co-operating with the US. Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte said Trump's leadership "will again be key to keeping our alliance strong. I look forward to working with him again to advance peace through strength through Nato". Donald Trump has been critical of the Nato alliance, accusing its European allies of not paying enough for security. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on X: "I appreciate President Trump’s commitment to the 'peace through strength' approach in global affairs. This is exactly the principle that can practically bring just peace in Ukraine closer." Trump promised to push Zelensky to cut a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin, one that may involve a loss of territory. Ukraine fears he will reduce US military and financial support. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni congratulated Mr Trump in a post on X, saying Italy and the US were "linked by an unshakable alliance, common values and a historic friendship. It is a strategic bond, which I am sure we will now strengthen even further." Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez also congratulated Mr Trump on X: "We will work on our strategic bilateral relations and on a strong transatlantic partnership." In her congratulatory message to Trump, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the EU and the US were "more than just allies". Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated Trump, describing him as a friend on X: "As you build on the successes of your previous term, I look forward to renewing our collaboration to further strengthen the India-US Comprehensive Global and Strategic Partnership. "Together, let's work for the betterment of our people and to promote global peace, stability and prosperity."
Volodymyr Zelensky congratulates Donald Trump on 'impressive election victory' -- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky offered former President Trump his congratulations Wednesday, after Trump was projected to win the 2024 presidential election.“Congratulations to @realDonaldTrump on his impressive election victory! I recall our great meeting with President Trump back in September, when we discussed in detail the Ukraine-U.S. strategic partnership, the Victory Plan, and ways to put an end to Russian aggression against Ukraine,” Zelensky wrote in a post on the social platform X. He added that he admires Trump’s “commitment to the ‘peace through strength’ approach in global affairs.” “This is exactly the principle that can practically bring just peace in Ukraine closer,” the Ukrainian leader continued. “I am hopeful that we will put it into action together.” Trump met with Zelensky last month amid the nearly three-year war in Ukraine. The former president highlighted his relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin during the interaction and implied he could make a deal end the war “very quickly.”However, at a rally in South Carolina in February, Trump told a story from his first term in office where he spoke to another leader of a NATO country, saying he would “encourage” Russia “to do whatever the hell they want” if the country was “delinquent” in payments to the security alliance.“One of the presidents of a big country stood up, said, ‘Well, sir, if we don’t pay and we’re attacked by Russia, will you protect us?’” Trump said at the rally. “I said, ‘You didn’t pay, you’re delinquent.’ He said, ‘Yes, let’s say that happened.’ No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want.” Despite scrutiny that has followed the threat, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte also extended his congratulations to the president-elect.
Vladimir Putin doesn't plan to congratulate Donald Trump on election win - Russian President Vladimir Putin has no plans to congratulate former President Trump on his election night victory, the Kremlin said Wednesday amid speculation the Republican president-elect will have closer relations with Moscow. Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov said at a Wednesday briefing that he was not aware of any plans to congratulate Trump and made clear that relations with the U.S. were at a historic low. “It is practically impossible to make relations between the United States and Russia any worse as they are already at their lowest point in history,” Peskov said, according to Russian state-run media outlet TASS.However, Peskov said the next administration has the chance to change its position on dialogue with Russia.“President Putin has repeatedly said that he is open to a constructive dialogue based on justice, equality, and mutual respect for each other’s concerns. And President Putin remains committed to this position and has reiterated it multiple times,” Peskov added. “But today, the U.S. administration holds a contrary position. Let’s wait and see what happens in January,”Trump has pledged to end the war in Ukraine by the time he takes office Jan. 20, a move that may involve ceding territory to Russia, which has taken swaths of eastern Ukrainian territory in the nearly three-year-old war.The U.S. under President Biden has supported Kyiv with advanced weapons to defend against the Russian invasion, but Trump has called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky the “greatest salesman” for his ability to win billions of dollars in aid from Washington and expressed doubt about supporting a war that has destroyed parts of Ukraine.Trump has also made remarks praising Putin, including calling him a “genius” after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Trump also reportedly called the Russian president seven times since he left the White House in January 2021 and sent him COVID-19 test kits during his last year in office in 2020. Zelensky, who met with Trump in September, congratulated the president-elect shortly after he secured enough Electoral College votes in the presidential election against Vice President Harris early Wednesday morning.
Putin congratulates Trump, expresses readiness for discussions --Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday congratulated President-elect Trump on his election victory and said he was ready to hold discussions with the incoming president. Putin made his remarks during a speech at the Valdai Discussion Club, a conference held in the Black Sea resort town of Sochi, according to the Russian state-news site TASS. Putin reportedly said he was impressed by Trump’s response to the assassination attempt in July, calling him a “courageous man,” and added he was ready to hold discussions with the president-elect. The Kremlin said Wednesday that Putin was holding off on congratulating Trump. Trump has boasted of having a friendly relationship with Putin and that he would call the Russian leader to end Russia’s war in Ukraine before inauguration day. Trump has not confirmed or denied reports that he has spoken with Putin at least seven times since leaving office in 2021. But he said on the campaign trail that it would be “smart” for him to talk with the Russian leader. Putin noted in his remarks that Trump’s campaign statements deserve attention, according to TASS. Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky said that he had a “productive conversation” with Trump following his victory over Vice President Harris. “It was a productive conversation, a good conversation,” Zelensky said of his phone call with Trump on Wednesday. “Of course, we cannot yet know what his actions will be. But we do hope that America will become stronger.”
Marco Rubio predicts pragmatic foreign policy in second Donald Trump term -Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), the ranking member of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said early Wednesday that the U.S. is entering a period of “pragmatic foreign policy,” following former President Trump’s victory in the presidential election.Rubio, in an interview on CNN, said the U.S. needs to be “very pragmatic and wise in how we invest overseas and what we do, how we approach things,” citing threats from the closer ties of Russia, North Korea, Iran and China.Rubio’s comments serve as an early window into how Republicans, who will take control of the Senate in January, will prioritize foreign policy threats in a second Trump administration and amid anxiety among America’s allies in Europe and Asia that the U.S. under Trump will retreat from its leadership position on the international stage in standing up against adversaries. The Florida senator on CNN did not address reports that Moscow is behind a plot that sought to send explosive devices through air mail, but said one of the first priorities for a Trump administration is to address Russian hybrid warfare that is occurring on European and NATO territory. “We know that the Russians have been involved in attempted sabotage operations throughout Europe as a way of inflicting costs on nations in Europe that are assisting Ukraine, and I think that’s an area we need to focus on and that the Trump administration would make a priority, in my opinion,” he said. Rubio, a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, did not address whether he would serve in a Trump administration; his name has been floated as a possible option of secretary of State. “I haven’t had any such conversations with anybody in the Trump administration, and either way I plan to work with them — whether it’s in the Senate, which is an important place to be, or in some other capacity,” he said.
Harris says ‘we must accept' election results, commits to peaceful transfer of power Kamala Harris delivers a concession speech after losing the election to Trump WATCH NOW VIDEO11:36 Kamala Harris told supporters "we must accept the results of this election" after she conceded defeat Wednesday to President-elect Donald Trump. "Earlier today, I spoke with President-elect Trump and congratulated him on his victory," Harris said at the vice president's alma mater Howard University, in Washington, D.C. It was the first time that Harris had spoken on camera to the public since Trump declared victory early Wednesday morning. "We will continue to wage this fight in the voting booth, in the courts and in the public square," she said. Harris was joined by her husband, Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff, along with her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, and other family members and campaign staff. Many members of the crowd were teary-eyed as the vice president delivered her remarks. "I know folks are feeling and experiencing a range of emotions right now," Harris said. "I am so proud of the race we ran and the way we ran it." Harris urged her supporters to remain hopeful in the coming administration. "While I concede this election, I do not concede the fight that fueled this campaign," Harris said. "The fight for freedom, for opportunity, for fairness and the dignity of all people." "This is not a time to throw up our hands," she added. "This is a time to roll up our sleeves." Over the course of her 107-day campaign, Harris broke fundraising records and regularly held rallies attended by tens of thousands of people. She also collected an array of high-profile endorsements — from music superstars like Taylor Swift and Beyoncé to staunch conservatives like former Republican Vice President Dick Cheney and his daughter, former Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney. "We have been intentional about building community and building coalitions, bringing people together from every walk of life and background, united by love of country," Harris said.
Democrats grovel before Trump - In statements issued by Vice President Kamala Harris Wednesday and President Joe Biden Thursday, the leaders of the Democratic Party have adopted a posture of outright complicity with the incoming fascist president-elect Donald Trump. Harris said that she had called Trump and congratulated him on his victory in the November 5 election. “I also told him that we will help him and his team with their transition,” she continued, “and that we will engage in a peaceful transfer of power.” She made no reference to previous statements that Trump was a fascist and a threat to the democratic rights of the American people. Biden’s statement Thursday was even more cowardly. He went on national television, not to warn the American people about the dangers of dictatorship, but to extend a welcome to his fascist successor: Yesterday I spoke with president-elect Trump and congratulated him on his victory. I assured him that I would direct my entire administration to work with his team to ensure a peaceful and orderly transition. That is what the American people deserve… I will do my duty as president. I will fulfill my oath. I will honor the Constitution. On January 20, we will have a peaceful transfer of power in America. But the re-entry of Donald Trump into the White House, regaining the most powerful political office in the world, is anything but a normal political occasion. Four years ago, Trump staged a violent political coup, attempting to overturn the outcome of the 2020 election and maintain his grip on power. He summoned a mob of supporters to Washington and they stormed the Capitol on January 6, 2021, aiming to block congressional certification of Biden’s victory. After the failure of the coup, Trump refused to attend Biden’s inauguration, and he conducted his election campaign in 2024 on the basis of the “big lie” of a stolen election. Biden made no mention of this history. He was entirely silent on the repeated declarations by Trump that from January 20 he will act as a dictator, ordering mass roundups of immigrants and imprisoning millions in detention camps for immediate deportation. He made no reference to Trump’s declaration to supporters that this was the last election in which they would be voting. He said nothing about Trump’s threats to arrest and prosecute “the enemy within,” a category that includes journalists, civil liberties groups, students protesting the Gaza genocide, socialists, and leaders of the Democratic Party, including Biden himself. In 2016, after Trump’s surprise victory over Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama welcomed him to the White House with the revealing comment that the election had represented only an “intramural scrimmage.” He was acknowledging that the rival factions of the American ruling class, whatever their election mudslinging, were united in the defense of the interests of American capitalism. Biden is going even further. He is not a naif. He has been in bourgeois politics for more than a half-century. He knows what Trump is and what he is preparing to do. He didn’t express a word of concern about the plans for mass deportations, which would have devastating social consequences and have a truly police state character. His promise to facilitate the transition to Trump thus goes beyond mere fecklessness or prostration. Through Biden, the Democratic Party is declaring in advance its complicity with the frontal assault on the working class that the Trump administration will carry out.
Sanders ignites Democratic battle over election loss - Democrats are pointing fingers and scrambling for answers over what went wrong with their message on the economy after a resounding loss by Vice President Harris to President-elect Trump that saw her fall in every single swing state.Harris’s loss was a bad one that extended to the Senate, where the GOP has picked up three seats and hopes to win a fourth in Pennsylvania. Several other Democrats in the Senate skated through tight races. In the House, the party is scrambling to win the majority. If Republicans hold their majority, it will give the GOP unified power of the executive and legislative branches and allow Trump a chance to reshape a host of policies — a nightmare for Democrats.The depths of the loss can also be seen in some of the margins in deep-blue states. In New Jersey, Harris only won by around 5 points after President Biden took the state by 16 points in 2020. Illinois has voted for Democratic presidential candidates by double digits in every such election since the 1990s. Harris looks like she will win it by 8 points. The searing loss has exposed Democratic divisions, with leading progressives arguing their party lost its voice and failed to offer a message that resonated with working-class voters who abandoned the party. They say Harris and the party at large lost its voice on the economy, the single more important issue in the fight with Trump. While the Republican offered simple messages that appeared to resonate with the electorate — tariffs, tariffs, and tariffs, coupled with a message that Biden and Harris had broken the economy and Trump would fix it — Harris’s message was muddled. “It should come as no great surprise that a Democratic Party which has abandoned working class people would find that the working class has abandoned them,” Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) said Wednesday in a blistering statement. “First, it was the white working class, and now it is Latino and Black workers as well,” he added. But Jaime Harrison, the chair of the Democratic National Committee, called the remarks by Sanders “straight up BS.” “Biden was the most-pro worker President of my life time- saved Union pensions, created millions of good paying jobs and even marched in a picket line and some of MVP’s plans would have fundamentally transformed the quality of life and closed the racial wealth gap for working people across this country,” he wrote in a post on the social platform X. “From the child tax credits, to 25k for a down payment for a house to Medicare covering the cost of senior health care in their homes. There are a lot of post election takes and this one ain’t a good one.” Democratic strategist Melissa DeRosa on Thursday told anchor Marni Hughes on “NewsNation Live” that the Democratic Party “lost the script” at some point in the race. “I think that we are talking to ourselves in places like MSNBC and NPR and The New York Times and we have completely lost touch with the working men and women, which is ironic given that the Democratic Party is the party of the labor movement,” she said. “We’ve got to get back to basics, and I think following this election we’ve got to do a lot more listening, and a lot of that starts with understanding that while the Dow Jones can be off the charts, inflation was crushing American families and real wages were not rising.” Harris ran on an array of proposals centered on showcasing her willingness to work to bring prices down. She pledged to reinstate a child tax credit, she offered a plan to go after price gouging by large companies, and she said she would work to build homes to take down housing prices. She at times adopted Trump positions, such as a proposal to eliminate taxes on tips, and at other times saw Trump co-opt Democratic policies, like the child tax credit. But her campaign also focused even more prominently on abortion rights and Trump’s threat to democracy, a theme underscored by her campaign trips with former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.). She also struggled to differentiate herself from Biden’s record, at one point telling the hosts of “The View” that she couldn’t think of a thing she would have done differently from Biden. Trump’s arguments on the campaign trail may have resonated with workers who have seen low wage growth over the past several decades. Trump for years has blamed that situation on the negative impacts of free-trade deals supported by both parties, saying it hollowed out the U.S. industrial base. Those antiglobalization arguments were shared by progressives. Sanders pointed to wage stagnation in his angry response aimed at Democrats. Inflation-adjusted weekly wages for the average American worker “are actually lower now than they were 50 years ago,” he said Wednesday. Biden and Harris both sought to reassure Americans in their handling of the economy by pointing to strong top-line numbers, such as the 4.1 percent jobless rate in October and the steady growth of the U.S. economy under their watch. But neither the White House nor campaign found a way to overcome voter frustration about inflation after prices rose more than 20 percent since Biden took office. “It is not the overall economy, but inflation,” Cornell University economist Kaushik Basu wrote in a commentary. “We know from history that inflation can damage the party in power. … Unlike other economic variables, people do not need official statistics to see inflation.” Many Democrats fumed throughout the election that voters were not giving them enough credit for their handling of the economy, nor their plans to fight inflation. “Many attitudes of voters can be summed up that it’s easier to be angry than it is to be informed,” Democratic strategist Antjuan Seawright told The Hill in an interview. Strategists and pundits across the political spectrum, however, say Harris’s loss to Trump suggests a fundamental issue with the Democratic Party’s approach to the economy. Progressive group Way to Win, which focuses on advancing diversity and multiracial democracy, said Democrats have to open their eyes to a new reality. “There’s simply no denying that we are playing on a new landscape where none of the old rules apply, and Democrats must start entirely from scratch to meet this emerging era in American history,” Way to Win President Tory Gavito said in a statement.
DNC Chair Jaime Harrison Calls Sanders Critique of Election Loss 'Straight Up BS' After U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders offered his perspective on why Vice President Kamala Harris lost both the popular vote and Electoral College to President-elect Donald Trump in Tuesday's election—repeating his consistent warning that the Democratic Party must center economic justice—top official Jaime Harrison signaled once again that the party is unlikely to hear Sanders' call.Harrison, the chair of the Democratic National Committee and a former lobbyist for clients including Bank of America and BP, called Sanders' statement "straight up BS" and touted pro-worker policies embraced by the Biden-Harris administration, suggesting that the party has sufficiently worked for economic justice—and appearing to ignore all evidence that working-class voters gravitated toward Trump and the Republican Party."[President Joe] Biden was the most-pro worker president of my lifetime—saved union pensions, created millions of good-paying jobs, and even marched in a picket line," said Harrison.In his statement on Thursday, Sanders said "it should come as no great surprise that a Democratic Party which has abandoned working-class people would find that the working class has abandoned them."He asked whether the "well-paid consultants who control the Democratic Party" would "learn any real lessons from this disastrous campaign?" "Probably not," he added.
Democratic Party debacle hands presidency to Trump - Fascist former president Donald Trump has won the US presidential election, according to overnight projections of state-by-state results, which showed him winning 276 electoral votes, above the 270 required for victory. While votes are still being counted in many states, and three of the seven “battleground” states were still not called by the Associated Press, Trump won the remaining four, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. This is not so much a victory for Trump as it is a debacle for the Democratic Party. Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, the sitting vice president, ran behind the vote totals won by President Joe Biden in 2020, in virtually every state and county across the US. With the bulk of the ballots counted, except in the heavily Democratic West Coast, Trump leads Kamala Harris by a commanding five million votes and a 51-47 percent margin. Four years after Trump attempted a coup to overthrow the Constitution, he appears to have won election for a second term. Exit polls indicate a collapse of the Democratic Party’s strategy of combining a ruthless, genocidal imperialist agenda with appeals to identity politics. Trump made substantial inroads among young people who voted, winning a majority of young men. Among first-time young voters nationwide, Trump won by 9 percent, compared to a 30-point loss to Biden in 2020. State exit polling data shows Trump won a majority of Latino voters in Pennsylvania, a majority of young voters in Michigan, and a majority of Latino men in North Carolina, and that he doubled his support among African-American voters in Wisconsin. Turnout appears to have been high overall, and exit polls show an electorate that was motivated by profound social anger over economic conditions. Two thirds of voters said economic conditions in the country are bad, with only 35 percent saying they are good. Just under half of voters said their own economic situation was worse than four years ago, double the number who said their economic situation had improved under the Biden administration. These voters went for Trump over Harris by a 40-point margin. Seventy-five percent said inflation had caused their family hardship in the last year. Over 70 percent of voters said they were angry or dissatisfied with the state of the country, with only 7 percent saying they were enthusiastic. In Pennsylvania, voters were asked “How much change is needed in the way the country is run?”, to which 81 percent said “total upheaval” or “substantial change.” Harris underperformed even in some traditional Democratic strongholds. With 95 percent of votes tallied in New York City, Harris leads Trump with only 68 percent of the vote—the lowest margin for any Democrat since 1988. Harris lost in the heavily Arab-American neighborhood of southern Dearborn, Michigan, where there is massive opposition to the Biden-Harris administration’s involvement in the ongoing genocide in Gaza. Biden won south Dearborn by 88 percent in 2020. Republicans have won control of the Senate, flipping at least West Virginia, Montana and Ohio from the Democrats, with Republicans presently leading in previously Democratic seats in Pennsylvania and Nevada. It appears that the Republicans have narrow control of the House of Representatives, though final results will not be known for several days, at least.
A huge victory for America’s oligarchy - Democracy for Sale -- Well, now we know. Donald Trump will be the 47th president of the United States. The shady $140 million fund that Republican donors had set up for “election integrity” won’t be needed. The Democrats have lost, and will concede defeat. When Trump won the presidency eight years ago I was in New York covering the election. This time around, I watched his victory speech from my living room. But even from thousands of miles away something about Trump’s rambling speech hit me. Hard. Forget the digressions and the wild promises. (Forget, if you can, that he was briefly joined onstage by the boss of the Ultimate Fighting Championship.) Trump’s speech was shocking because it told us who is in complete control of US democracy now - oligarchs, plutocrats and vested interests. American democracy has always been for sale. Public office sold to the highest bidder. Political lobbyists paid millions to water down legislation.Take the opioid epidemic that did so much to propel Trump to the White House in 2016. It was largely created by a single company. Purdue Pharma was allowed to mass market a highly addictive drug after it handed huge paychecks to regulators and politicians such as Trump’s bestie Rudy Giuliani.The corporate influence on US politics has always been there, but often unspoken. This morning Trump said the quiet part loud.Trump was at pains to single out Elon Musk as a “super genius” who needs to be protected. And how might Musk - who gave $75million to a Trump Super pac and has been blatantly flouting US election law on the Republicans’ behalf - be protected?Well, given Tesla’s declining market share, a huge tariff on Chinese electric vehicles will definitely bolster the richest man in the world’s bottom line. As will scrapping any pesky regulatory proposals that might stem the flow of disinformation on Musk’s X/Twitter.But Trump did not just namecheck Musk. In a bizarre segment, Trump said that anti-vax activist Robert J Kennedy Junior was going to “help make America healthy again” but warned him to “leave the oil to me”. “Bobby,” Trump said, “stay away from the liquid gold. Other than that, go have a good time, Bobby.” So who will be in charge of the “liquid oil”? The oil bosses who Trump promised to increase drilling and reverse pollution rules in exchange for $1billion in campaign contributions at a dinner in Mar-a-Lago earlier this year. The billion dollars never materialised but the oil and gas industry did give more than $75million to Trump PACs recently. Trump’s victory is a big win for Vladimir Putin (and Viktor Orban) but is a gamechanger for America’s emergent oligarch class. The president elect has pledged to rip up the state, liberating public assets and resources for the new private sector masters of the universe. Jeff Bezos understood this when he pulled a Harris endorsement from his Washington Post. Forget “democracy dies in darkness”, this is “my personal wealth flourishes through silence”. The LA Times’s proprietor pulled the same trick. The power of traditional media in the US to inform debate - to call out what’s actually going on - is effectively dead. The ‘low propensity’ voters that flocked to Trump don’t read traditional media, they get their news on X, TikTok, Insta and the plethora of other options. This isn’t just a US problem - and the issue of how to give people verified, trustworthy news in a format they want is something we have been thinking about a lot at Democracy for Sale - but the collision between the information age and democracy is most cataclysmic across the Atlantic. Trump will be a boon for vested interests. British American Tobacco - which as we reported earlier this week gave $17.2million to the Republicans - will be cock a hoop. As will Peter Thiel, the democracy agnostic tech billionaire, and the Silicon Valley tech bros who have bankrolled the political career of vice president elect JD Vance.This is who the Trump that appeared on stage this morning will represent. People who are unashamed in their commitment to ripping up rights and turning public goods into private assets. While I was doom scrolling on my phone in the early hours of this morning, I came across a couple of news stories - both from Ohio - that I expect will mostly be missed in the fulminations of today.One was the victory of Ohio senate candidate and crypto cheerleader Bernie Moreno. The crypto industry’s Defend American Jobs Pac spent more than $40million backing the Republican. And guess who the chair of the Senate Banking Committee is? Yep, Ohio’s defeated sitting Democrat Sherrod Brown. (And who else is a recent convert to crypto? Donald J. Trump.)The other story from Ohio that caught my eye was a proposal on the ballot that would have ended gerrymandering by creating an independent redistricting commission. A no brainer, surely? Well, no. Doubtlessly helped by “incredibly deceptive ballot language”, the measure failed. Politicians - Republicans - will stay in charge of carving up Ohio’s electoral boundaries. This, folks, is how democracy dies. Amid a swell of dark money and disinformation. With elected leaders paying fealty to the oligarchs who delivered them into office.
On the election of Donald Trump - WSWS Editorial Board - The election of Donald Trump is a critical event in the protracted crisis of American democracy, whose shattering will be felt throughout the world. A fascist demagogue—who attempted in January 2021 to violently overthrow the last presidential election—has decisively won the 2024 election with both an electoral and popular vote majority. He will be re-installed in the White House in little more than 70 days. Trump owes his political triumph to the bankruptcy of the Democratic Party, whose fixation with the identity politics of the affluent middle class, arrogant indifference to the devastating impact of inflation on workers’ living standards, and unrelenting support for war in Ukraine and genocide in Gaza prepared the ground for the election debacle. The major pillars of the capitalist press are already attempting to downplay the political implications of Trump’s victory. “Mr. Trump’s election poses a grave threat,” writes the New York Times, “but he will not determine the long-term fate of American democracy.” The Times reassures its readers that Trump will be a lame-duck president because he is barred by the Constitution from seeking another term. This is wishful thinking. Trump openly proclaimed that this would be the last election, and that his supporters would not have to vote again. The political reality is that the election of Trump sets the stage for an unprecedented wave of social counterrevolution, which he plans to enforce with an iron heel. Trump has pledged to become “dictator” and deploy the military to crush “the enemy within.” He plans to deport 11 million undocumented immigrants, an operation that would require placing major American cities under martial law. He has floated eliminating the income tax and promises to slash taxes for the rich and end corporate regulations. The devastating impact that these policies will have on the working class cannot be overstated. He is not a political accident. However it was achieved—and this is not to minimize the political complicity of the Democratic Party—the coming to power of a second Trump administration represents the violent realignment of the American political superstructure to correspond with the real social relations that exist in the United States. Donald Trump speaks not simply as one criminal individual but as the representative of a powerful capitalist oligarchy that has taken shape over the last three to four decades. Mega-millionaires and billionaires—led by the likes of Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, Peter Thiel and Larry Ellison—are utilizing Trump to effect in their interests a reactionary restructuring of American society. They will use the time leading up to the January 20 inauguration to prepare the barrage of repressive and socially reactionary measures that will be unleashed as soon as Trump is once again ensconced in the White House. He was able to exploit the absence within the political establishment of any articulation of the interests of the vast majority of the population. The Harris campaign was opposed to making any social appeal to the working class. They pitched their campaign to the most affluent voters, promoting hated warmongers like Liz Cheney and promising to place Republicans in the cabinet. Harris, Barack Obama and other Democratic surrogates traveled the country haranguing voters that a failure to turn out for Harris would be proof of misogyny or racism. They combined incessant appeals to racial and gender identity with full-throated endorsement of war abroad. The Democrats pledged further support for Israel’s genocidal assault on Gaza and called for an escalation of the US-NATO war against Russia in Ukraine. The Democrats offered nothing to address the escalating social crisis in the United States, instead presenting the country as “on the right track” to a population which almost unanimously believes the opposite. Figures like Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez presented the absurd lie that the Biden-Harris administration had improved conditions for working people and that Harris would challenge the domination of “the billionaire class.” Mimicking Hillary Clinton’s 2016 claim that the working class consists of “a basket of deplorables,” Biden called Trump’s supporters “garbage” in the final days of the election. The vote totals show not a surge in support for Trump, who appears to have lost votes compared to his 2020 totals, but a staggering collapse in support for the Democrats, with Harris winning somewhere between 10 and 15 million fewer votes than Joe Biden in 2020.
Progressives Say Trump Win Spotlights Rot of Political System 'Bought and Paid for by Billionaires' -As progressives in the United States and around the world assessed the dire implications of Donald Trump's victory and prepared to fight his coming administration, the advocacy group Justice Democrats said Wednesday that the Republican's win is a devastating indictment of a political system "bought and paid for by billionaires and corporations" committed only to accruing more wealth and power for themselves."These monied interests are on the frontlines of destroying our democracy, taking away the power of voters through their unprecedented spending in elections—while those in power refuse to stand up and fight back," Alexandra Rojas, the executive director of Justice Democrats, said in a statement, condemning the leadership of both major parties as servants of corporate power. "It's time to end the era of career politicians and the corrupt campaign finance laws that keep them in power," Rojas added.The 2024 contest was the most expensive in U.S. history, according to the watchdog organization OpenSecrets, which noted in an Election Day blog post that outside spending in the race reached a record-shattering $4.5 billion. More than half of that spending, OpenSecrets observed, came from "groups that do not fully disclose the source of their funding." Such dark money groups have proliferated widely since the U.S. Supreme Court's 2010 Citizens United decision, which—along with other rulings and congressional inaction—allowed torrents of untraceable cash to flood the nation's political system, warping and undermining the electoral process. "It's Citizens United's world, we're just living in it," researcher Becca Lewis wrote Wednesday morning."As long as our party has cozied up with corporate CEOs, right-wing billionaires, and big money super PACs, everyday people in this country have seen Democrats' populist platitudes as hypocrisy at best, and outright deceitful at worst."As OpenSecrets' Tuesday analysis made clear, both Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris—and their parties—benefited from massive sums of dark money and super PAC cash, as well as donations from billionaire families. "Super PACs aligned with each major party's leaders in the House and Senate have taken hundreds of millions of dollars from dark money groups funded by anonymous donors during the 2024 cycle," the watchdog reported. "During the 2024 election cycle, the four main nonprofits aligned with Republicans and Democrats in Congress churned about $250 million from anonymous donors to allied super PACs. Senate Democrats' flagship dark money group, Majority Forward, accounted for over $113.2 million of that, more than any prior election." Despite that massive influx of cash, Democrats lost control of the U.S. Senate after the GOP flipped seats in Ohio, Montana, and West Virginia—underscoring Justice Democrats' call for a "new era" of Democrats "not beholden to corporations and billionaires."Rojas acknowledged Wednesday that "there are no easy answers for where we as a country and movement go from here" following such a decisive win for Trump and his far-right Republican Party, which has no interest in reforming the federal campaign finance system."But what is clear to us is that politically courageous leaders at the federal level are needed now more than ever," she said, warning that the Democratic Party is "rapidly losing its legitimacy amongst the everyday people and marginalized communities continuously used as stepping stones to win elections.""For as long as our party has cozied up with corporate CEOs, right-wing billionaires, and big money super PACs," Rojas added, "everyday people in this country have seen Democrats' populist platitudes as hypocrisy at best, and outright deceitful at worst."
Trump Puts An Appropriately Ugly Face On A Very Ugly Empire -Caitlin Johnstone - The only thing I like about Trump is exactly what so many empire managers hate about him: he gives the game away. He says the quiet parts out loud. He’s the only president who’ll openly boast that US troops are in Syria to keep the oil or lament that they failed to take the oil from Venezuela, or just come right out and tell everyone he’s bought and owned by Zionist oligarchs. Trump is the opposite of Obama, who was very skillful at putting a pretty face on the evil empire. Trump puts a very ugly face on a very ugly thing. He is a much more honest face to have on the empire. A crude, stupid plutocrat who is owned by other plutocrats is the perfect representative of that tyrannical power structure.
Biden-Harris DoJ Reportedly Winding Down Trump Criminal Cases --Special Counsel Jack Smith, overseeing two federal cases against former President Donald Trump, has considered a possible pathway to end the cases, according to two sources familiar with the matter who spoke to NBC News. This news from the MSM outlet comes hours after Trump won the US presidential election.Here's more from NBC News:The latest discussions stand in contrast with the pre-election legal posture of Special Counsel Jack Smith, who in recent weeks took significant steps in the election interference case against Trump without regard to the electoral calendar.But the sources say DOJ officials have come to grips with the fact that no trial is possible any time soon in either the January 6th case or the classified documents matter—both of which are mired in legal issues that would likely prompt an appeal all the way to the Supreme Court, even if Trump had lost the election.Now that Trump will become president again, DOJ officials see no room to pursue either criminal case against him—and no point in continuing to litigate them in the weeks before he takes office, the people said.The outlet continued:The sources said it will be up to Smith to decide exactly how to unwind the charges, and many questions remain unanswered. Could the prosecutions resume after Trump leaves office or would they be time-barred? What happens to the evidence? What about the two other defendants charged with helping Trump hide classified documents? Will Smith write a report, as special counsels usually do?The sources say all those issues require study and research.At the same time, Trump's legal team is weighing their own next steps for how to resolve the outstanding federal cases in the former president's favor now that he is the projected winner of the election. The ultimate goal is to get all of the federal and state cases wiped out completely — the strategic call is how best to accomplish that task, according to a person familiar with the discussions. If the Trump side, for example, moved again in court to dismiss the charges in Washington for election interference, then the Justice Department could use its legal response to explain its position on not moving forward with that case. As a reminder, Axios noted that there are four separate federal and state cases that involve Trump:
- New York hush money case: Trump was convicted in May on all 34 felony counts in his New York criminal trial, for falsifying business records to cover up a payment to adult film actress Stormy Daniels before the 2016 election.
- Georgia election interference case: The sprawling racketeering case has been on hold since July, pending a legal battle over whether prosecutor Fani Willis should be removed from the case. Oral arguments are set for December 5th.
- Federal January 6th case: Special counsel Jack Smith's criminal case over Trump's alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election is on hold while Judge Tanya Chutkan decides how much of the case can proceed in light of the Supreme Court's presidential immunity ruling.
- Federal classified documents case: The federal case, which was filed in Florida, was dismissed in July after Judge Aileen Cannon ruled Smith had been unlawfully appointed. Smith appealed the dismissal.
The former president has stated that he intends to end the federal criminal cases once he returns to the White House. Surprisingly, the Biden-Harris DoJ may move first, well ahead of January 20th. As Jonathan Turley notes, Donald Trump’s victory was the largest jury verdict that some of us anticipated for years of unrelenting weaponization of the legal system. Smith’s prosecutions ended with the 270th Electoral College vote secured around 2 a.m. Wednesday. His unrelenting efforts to convict Trump and then, when prevented from holding a trial, to release damaging material before the election have collapsed with the blue wall in the Midwest. Trump has said he plans to fire Smith on Day 1. That means the end of both the January 6 and the classified documents cases. That leaves James and Bragg as residue of long-forgotten lawfare battles, but even there Trump’s prospects look good. James was able to secure a fellow lawfare warrior in Justice Arthur Engoron, who imposed a grotesque $455 million in fines and interest. That ruling is pending an appeal that is expected to be a partial or even total victory for Trump.
How 5 key groups voted in the 2024 Election, according to AP VoteCast data - (AP) — Donald Trump won the presidency after holding tight to his core base of voters and slightly expanding his coalition to include several groups that have traditionally been a part of the Democratic base. That finding comes from AP VoteCast, a sweeping survey of more than 120,000 voters nationwide that shows what issues mattered to voters in this election. Trump picked up a small but significant share of Black and Hispanic voters, and made narrow gains with men and women. As Trump chipped away at parts of the Democratic coalition, Vice President Kamala Harris wasn’t able to make enough of her own gains. Trump succeeded in locking down his traditionally older, white base of voters, and he slightly expanded his margins with other groups into a winning coalition. A look at how five key demographic groups voted, according to AP VoteCast. Most Trump voters were white, a trend that continued from 2020. Slightly more than 8 in 10 Trump voters in this election were white, roughly in line with 2020. About two-thirds of Harris’ voters were white, and that largely matched President Joe Biden ’s coalition in the last election. White voters make up a bulk of the voting electorate in the United States, and they did not shift their support significantly at the national level compared to 2020. A majority of white voters cast their ballot for Trump, unchanged from the 2020 election that he narrowly lost. About 4 in 10 white voters backed Harris, which is about the same as Biden received in 2020. White voters were also more likely to support Trump over Harris and Biden in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, even though Trump lost those states in 2020. Trump’s share of Black voters rose slightly, driven largely by younger men. Trump was able to make slight inroads with Black voters nationally, who made up about 1 in 10 voters across the country. Nationally, about 8 in 10 Black voters supported Harris. But, that was down from about 9 in 10 in the last presidential election who went for Biden. Trump about doubled his share of young Black men – which helped him among key Democratic voting group. About 3 in 10 Black men under the age of 45 went for Trump, roughly double the number he got in 2020. Slightly more Hispanic voters supported Trump in 2020. While Harris won more than half of Hispanic voters, that support was down slightly from the roughly 6 in 10 Hispanic voters that Biden won. Hispanic voters were more open to Trump than they were in 2020. Roughly half of Latino men voted for Harris, down from about 6 in 10 who went for Biden. Trump benefitted from narrow gains among both men and women, with Harris modestly underperforming compared with Biden in 2020. Harris had the advantage among women, winning 53% to Trump’s 46%, but that margin was somewhat narrower than Biden’s. Biden won 55% of women, while 43% went for Trump. His support held steady among white women — slightly more than half supported him, similar to 2020. Trump made a similar gain among men, with a modest shift increasing his advantage. The shifts by gender were concentrated among younger voters, as well as Black and Latino voters. White voters across genders and older voters across genders voted similarly in 2024 as they did in 2020.
Trump 2024 election win: Tech CEOs give their congratulations --Leaders of major technology companies congratulated President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President-elect JD Vance on their victory in the U.S. presidential election Wednesday.The messages were similar, with CEOs remarking that they wish Trump success when he returns to the Oval Office, and look forward to working with his administration.Amazon founder and Executive Chairman Jeff Bezos celebrated Trump's win in a post on X, calling it an "extraordinary political comeback and decisive victory."Bezos, who also owns The Washington Post and founded space company Blue Origin, has had a rocky relationship with Trump and was a frequent target of the former president during his first term. Trump repeatedly took aim at Bezos' ownership of the Post, Amazon's tax record and its relationship with the Postal Service. Bezos also took swings at Trump, remarking in a 2015 social media post, "#sendDonaldtospace." Bezos recently struck a more conciliatory tone and in July praised Trump for his "courage under literal fire" following the attempted assassination of Trump at a Pennsylvania rally. Bezos has posted twice on X this year, with both posts mentioning Trump.In the lead-up to Election Day, Bezos and the Post became embroiled in controversy after the paper opted not to endorse a candidate in the presidential election for the first time in decades. The Post reported that Bezos made the call after the editorial board drafted an endorsement of Democratic nominee Kamala Harris. Bezos defended the decision in a Post op-ed, saying endorsements create the "perception of bias."Andy Jassy, who took the helm from Bezos when he stepped down as Amazon's CEO in 2021, also extended his congratulations to Trump."Congratulations to President-elect @realDonaldTrump on a hard-fought victory," Jassy wrote in a post on X. "We look forward to working with you and your administration on issues important to our customers, employees, communities, and country."Apple CEO Tim Cook congratulated Trump on his victory in a post on X. "We look forward to engaging with you and your administration to help make sure the United States continues to lead with and be fueled by ingenuity, innovation, and creativity," Cook wrote.OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said in a post on X that he hopes Trump will see "huge success in the job." In a follow-up post, he wrote, "it is critically important that the US maintains its lead in developing AI with democratic values."Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg called Trump's election win a "decisive victory" and said he looks forward to working with the Trump administration. "We have great opportunities ahead of us as a country," Zuckerberg wrote in a post on Threads, Meta's rival to Elon Musk's X app.The two men have also had a rocky relationship at times. In 2021, Facebook banned Trump for two years shortly after the Jan. 6 insurrection. Trump in March referred to Zuckerberg as "Zuckerschmuck" and called Meta's Facebook "the true enemy of the people" while saying he opposes a ban of social media app TikTok.Trump also reportedly claimed Zuckerberg was "plotting" against him in the 2020 presidential election and said the CEO could "spend the rest of his life in prison" if he did it again, in a coffee table book released in September.Musk, who also runs electric vehicle maker Tesla, space exploration company SpaceX, and brain tech startup Neuralink, also unsurprisingly cheered Trump's win.Musk has been a key ally for Trump in his campaign for the White House, with the former president promising prior to his election to appoint Musk as the head of a government efficiency commission. Musk also contributed nearly $75 million to America PAC, a pro-Trump super political action committee that he established earlier in the year. Tesla shares rallied more than 13% on Wednesday afternoon as investors were optimisticthat a Trump win would benefit the vehicle maker.Sundar Pichai, CEO of Google parent Alphabet, also congratulated Trump on his victory and said he's committed to working with the president-elect's administration.Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said: "Congratulations President Trump, we're looking forward to engaging with you and your administration to drive innovation forward that creates new growth and opportunity for the United States and the world."Venture capitalist and LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffmanpenned a lengthy post where he acknowledged Trump "has again won the presidency in a country where we enjoy relatively unfettered rights to vote, speak out, and steer our futures." Hoffman, who was a high-profile supporter of Harris' campaign, also called for unity among Americans."Now we get to the hard work of bridging divisions and ensuring that all Americans can enjoy safe, secure, and prosperous futures," Hoffman wrote. "Onward."
Pollster Frank Luntz warns of impact of Trump victory on Supreme Court -- Republican pollster Frank Luntz warned of the impact former President Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election would have on the U.S. Supreme Court. “The Supreme Court, with the Senate going red and with Trump at this point more than likely to be elected, still not a sure thing, but if he gets elected then he gets the appointment and with the Senate going Republican whomever he wants is going to end up on the Supreme Court,” Luntz said during his Tuesday night appearance on NewsNation. “That is about as big of an impact as you can have this election evening because there are a couple justices that will probably be retiring in the next year or two,” he added without noting which justices might be retiring soon. Luntz’s remarks came before Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) called Pennsylvania, a battleground state, for Trump and ultimately the election itself on early Wednesday for the Republican nominee. During his first term in the White House, Trump appointed three justices: Justices Brett Kavanaugh, Neil Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett. With their addition to the bench, Roe. v. Wade was overturned in 2022, ending the federal right to abortion and punting it back to the states. The pollster argued that with a majority in the Senate, Trump will have an easier time implementing some of his policy proposals. “If he has the Senate, it becomes easier for him to put forward his economic policies and some of it doesn’t even require a vote of Congress, but if you’re looking for that, that tariff policy is more likely than not to come into play,” Luntz said.
Trump picks Susie Wiles for White House chief of staff --Susie Wiles, who led President-elect Trump’s campaign for the past two years, will serve as his chief of staff when he takes office in January.“Susie Wiles just helped me achieve one of the greatest political victories in American history, and was an integral part of both my 2016 and 2020 successful campaigns,” Trump said in a statement.“Susie is tough, smart, innovative, and is universally admired and respected. Susie will continue to work tirelessly to Make America Great Again,” he added. “It is a well deserved honor to have Susie as the first-ever female Chief of Staff in United States history. I have no doubt that she will make our country proud.”The chief of staff pick was the first administration post Trump has announced since he clinched the presidency in the early hours of Wednesday morning.Wiles is a widely respected GOP operative from Florida who has avoided the spotlight even as she steered Trump’s third White House campaign alongside Chris LaCivita. She navigated the largely male-dominated campaign without making enemies, and Trump allies were quick to congratulate her on the role.“This is great news. Susie was a huge asset to President Trump on the campaign and will be a huge asset in the White House. She’s also just a really good person. Onward!” Vice President-elect JD Vance posted on social platform X.Trump called on Wiles to speak during his victory speech Wednesday morning, but, as evidence of her tendency to avoid the spotlight, she declined. “We call her the ice baby,” Trump joked. “Susie likes to stay in the background. She’s not in the background.”Prior to serving as a top Trump adviser in the 2024 election, Wiles led his Florida operations in the 2016 campaign. She went on to work with Ron DeSantis (R) on his gubernatorial campaign in Florida, but she left DeSantis’s team amid rising tensions.Chief of staff is seen as the most influential job in the White House, aside from the presidency itself, and Wiles will be tasked with managing Trump and his team of at-times competing factions — a job that proved difficult and thankless during his first term.Trump went through four chiefs of staff during his first term in office. His first pick, Reince Priebus, lasted six months before being replaced by John Kelly, who has since become an outspoken critic of Trump.
Self-Styled Working Class Fighter Trump Readies Cabinet Shaped by Billionaires Having won Tuesday's election after hammering home a message about high prices and garnering the support of many working-class voters, President-elect Donald Trump has begun the process of staffing top positions for his second term—drawing from Wall Street and reportedly taking the advice of billionaire backer Elon Musk.As Axiosreported on Thursday, "Musk is helping staff the top ranks of the incoming White House and will run an unregulated entity to recommend ways to cut and reorganize government"—the so-called government efficiency commission Musk proposed with the aim of "conducting a complete financial and performance audit of the entire federal government."Hedge fund billionaire John Paulson is reportedly in the running to be treasury secretary, a position that would give him influence over the tax cuts and deregulation both he and Trump support. Paulson is also a proponent of tariffs, which Trump touted as the answer to everything from expensive grocery bills to high childcare costs.Economists and Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee in the November 5 election, warned voters that tariffs on imports would worsen inflation by pushing U.S. companies to offload costs onto consumers.Other potential candidates to lead the Treasury Department include hedge fund manager Scott Bessent, a top fundraiser for Trump and unofficial adviser to the Trump campaign, and transition team co-chair Howard Lutnick, CEO of financial services firm Cantor Fitzgerald.Lutnick is also a backer of cyptocurrency firm Tether, which the Biden administration has been investigating for allegedly violating anti-money laundering rules. As journalist Jacob Silverman said on Wednesday, that probe is likely to be closed when Trump takes office.Days before the election, Lutnick signaled in a CNN interview that Trump's team is likely to elevate former independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to a high-level position related to health, telling the network that a conversation with Kennedy led him to believe the debunked view that vaccines cause autism.Trump has also said Kennedy, an environmental lawyer who has no background in medical care or public health but has long promoted anti-vaccination conspiracy theories, will have a "big role" in the administration. Last week Kennedy toldNBC News that he would push for fluoride, which reduces tooth decay, to be removed from public drinking water.Other wealthy members of Trump's inner circle who are expected to serve in the administration include his former Small Business Administration leader, Linda McMahon, whose name as been floated as a possible secretary of commerce, and former Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy.Ramaswamy, a billionaire who has billed himself as a "scientist" but ismore accurately described as a biotech financier, has hinted at a potential role as homeland security secretary. He staged an appearance in which he arrived at a Trump campaign event on the back of a sanitation truck—a reference to President Joe Biden's response to a racist joke at a Trump rally in which Biden appeared to call the Republican's supporters "garbage."
Trump’s second term Cabinet: Here’s who may fill key roles - President-elect Trump’s transition team has already started vetting potential candidates to serve in key administration posts once he takes office for a second time in January. The process is likely to emphasize loyalty to Trump and his vision for the country, and the president-elect and his team have identified a handful of close allies who will likely be either nominated for Cabinet posts or find an appointed role in his White House. “As he chooses the best people to join his team and best policies to pursue, his transition team will ensure the implementation of President Trump’s common sense agenda starting on Day 1,” transition co-chairs Linda McMahon and Howard Lutnick said in a statement. Elon Musk became one of Trump’s most vocal supporters this election season, and he is set to reap the benefits by being an influential figure in the next administration.Musk, the head of Tesla and SpaceX and owner of the social media platform X, is not expected to have a Cabinet position, and it’s still unclear if he will have a formal government title. He has said he would be interested in serving on a commission to cut back government spending.Regardless, he is expected to have Trump’s ear on issues like immigration, electric vehicles and regulation. The New York Times reported Musk has recommended some employees from one of his companies, SpaceX, for government jobs.Trump has spoken openly about giving Robert F. Kennedy Jr. a large portfolio in a new administration dealing with “health,” “food” and “women’s health.”“He wants to do some things, and we’re gonna let him go to it,” Trump said Wednesday morning as he declared victory. That job is not expected to be a Cabinet post, one source said, but rather an appointment to a czar-type position overseeing health and food regulation. People taking Cabinet roles must be confirmed by the Senate, and that could be difficult for Kennedy even with a GOP majority.Kennedy has already signaled how he might seek to dramatically reshape public health policy, regardless of his role. He has said a Trump administration will call for the removal of fluoride from the country’s drinking water, a decision typically made at the local level. He has said “entire departments” of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) should be eliminated and that he will seek more data on vaccines, though he has said he won’t seek to take away vaccinations. Kennedy has long drawn criticism for his anti-vaccine comments. The early front-runner to be Trump’s chief of staff is Susie Wiles, the low-profile but widely respected Florida operative who helped steer Trump’s campaign for the past two years.Wiles is a behind-the-scenes operator who has largely avoided the spotlight, but she navigated the largely male-dominated Trump campaign without making enemies.Trump went through four chiefs of staff during his first term in office.A chief of staff is not a Cabinet position, but historically it has been seen as the second most powerful role in Washington, behind the presidency itself. Like other White House positions, it does not require confirmation. Stephen Miller served as a senior adviser to Trump throughout his first term in office, and he is once again expected to join the White House in a similar capacity.Miller was the architect of some of Trump’s first-term immigration policies, including family separation and an order to ban travel into the U.S. from several majority-Muslim countries. Sources said he will have a key role as the president-elect looks to follow through on his promises to carry out mass deportations, wind down protected status for some groups and severely restrict the flow of migrants into the country. It will likely be a role that does not require confirmation by the Senate. Marco Rubio is in the mix for secretary of State, according to multiple sources.He has served on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and as the top Republican on the Senate Intelligence Committee. He was a finalist to be Trump’s running mate, and while some members of Trump’s base may view the senator skeptically, he would have no trouble getting confirmed by his Senate colleagues.Trump has at times telegraphed that Doug Burgum, the North Dakota governor, will be his choice to run the Energy Department.The former president previously told a rally crowd the governor “probably knows more about energy than anybody I know.” When Trump called Burgum to inform him he wasn’t picking the governor as his running mate, the former president greeted him on the phone as “Mr. Secretary.” Bill Hagerty served as Trump’s ambassador to Japan during his first term and is viewed as a likely administration pick out of the Senate. He could be tapped to lead the State Department, the Treasury Department or the Commerce Department. Prior to serving as an ambassador and a senator, Hagerty worked as an economic adviser in the George W. Bush White House and later as a top economic official in Tennessee.Robert O’Brien is considered a serious candidate to lead the State Department or to take on another senior role as part of Trump’s national security team. He previously served as Trump’s top hostage negotiator and later as his national security adviser. Mike Waltz is an Army veteran who has been open about his willingness to serve in the Trump administration.He could be tapped for Defense secretary or to lead the Department of Veterans Affairs.Richard Grenell is a top Trump ally who previously served as ambassador to Germany and acting director of intelligence. This time around, he could be poised for a larger job, as sources said he is in the mix to potetially lead the State Department. Grenell joined Trump during a recent meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and was an active presence on the campaign trail.John Paulson is reportedly among those under consideration for Treasury Secretary. Paulson is a hedge fund manager who has contributed to each of Trump’s three campaigns for the White House. This is the top economic position in an administration and is a part of the Cabinet. Steve Mnuchin served as Trump’s Treasury secretary in his first administration.Eric Schmitt is well liked by Trump and his allies and could be the choice to serve as attorney general.Schmitt, who served as his state’s attorney general, aided Trump with debate prep ahead of his June showdown with President Biden.The attorney general leads the Justice Department, where investigations of Trump were launched over the last four years. Trump is likely to see loyalty as the most important trait for his new attorney general. Trump ended up on the outs with his first attorney general, former Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.), early in his administration after Sessions recused himself from investigations into Russia’s attempted interference in the 2016 elections. Trump’s last attorney general, Bill Barr, also frustrated him when he found there was no evidence of widespread election fraud in the 2020 election.One Trump ally said James Blair, who oversaw the campaign’s political operation, could be in line for a White House job if he wanted one, and that campaign spokesperson Steven Cheungcould end up in a communications role. Margo Martin, who served in the press office in Trump’s first administration and was part of his team since he left office, is expected to have a role in his second term.Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), who has had a hot-and-cold relationship with Trump, has said he’s “ready and willing” to accept an agriculture role in the next administration. Tulsi Gabbard, the former Democratic presidential candidate who became a staunch Trump supporter, could be considered for an administration job. So could Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), who Punchbowl News has reported could be in the mix to serve as ambassador to the United Nations.Brooke Rollins, who previously served as Trump’s head of domestic policy during his first term, leads the influential America First Policy Institute and is among those who could fill a senior White House role.
Trump says he will give RFK Jr. a major health role. Here's what that means for patients, drugmakers --Donald Trump has made one clear promise about who could help take up the government's health reins during his second term as president: notorious vaccine skeptic and conspiracy theorist Robert F. Kennedy Jr.Trump has been elected the 47th president of the U.S. in an extraordinary comeback for a former president who refused to accept his defeat just four years ago. Trump said last week that Kennedy, who ended his own independent White House campaign earlier this year and endorsed Trump, will have a "big role" in health care in his administration. Last month, Trump said he would let Kennedy "go wild" on health, food and drug regulation.It's unclear what exactly Kennedy's role would look like, but the possibility is already raising alarm bells in the broader health community. Some health experts said elevating Kennedy, even in an informal Trump administration position, could potentially lead to severe consequences for patients, drugmakers and the nation's public health overall. "I think it would be a world turned upside down," Dr. Paul Offit, a vaccine expert at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia who has been an open critic of Kennedy, told CNBC. "Things would not be grounded in scientific truth, just grounded in whatever he or his acolytes believe. It would be a free-for-all. It would be uncertainty and instability. It would be chaos." He said "chaos" could potentially look like lower vaccination rates, increases in preventable disease and greater distrust in federal health agencies, such as the Food and Drug Administration and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That could exacerbate the nation's existing public health challenges, such as declining childhood vaccination rates for several preventable diseases, some experts say. The U.S. also has the lowest life expectancy at birth, the highest rate of people with multiple chronic diseases, and the highest maternal and infant death rate among other high-income nations, according to a 2023 report by the Commonwealth Fund, an independent research group. Kennedy, who does not have any medical or scientific credentials, believes drug companies and the federal health agencies that regulate them are making Americans less healthy. He has suggested that some vaccines should be taken off the market — a stance that Trump did not rule out Monday. The former environmental lawyer may also bring uncertainty to the pharmaceutical industry, which relies on federal health agencies to greenlight new products, keep old ones on the market, and, in some cases, fund research and development. It will likely be difficult for Kennedy to change the drug approval process, but experts said he could gain a new platform to politicize certain treatments he opposes and tout others that aren't proven to be safe and effective.Top leadership roles, such as the FDA commissioner, require confirmation by the Senate, which some experts noted could pose a hurdle for Kennedy. But Kennedy has met with Trump transition officials and could take a broad White House "health czar" position that would not need Senate confirmation, The Washington Post reported Saturday. Regardless of what the position looks like, Kennedy will likely gain a "new podium to spread his views," said Drew Altman, president and CEO of health policy organization KFF. "It's giving one of the chief architects for health misinformation a national podium backed by the president," Altman told CNBC. "Many more people will hear what he has to say, believe it and act on it. That could pose a risk to their health."A second Trump term could allow Kennedy to elevate anti-vaccine rhetoric, regardless of whether he holds a major role at a federal health agency.Health experts said that could deter more Americans from receiving Covid shots and routine immunizations against various diseases that have for decades saved millions of lives and prevented crippling illnesses."By elevating his message, it normalizes people, parents, opting out of the vaccination schedule," said Genevieve Kanter, associate professor of public policy at the University of Southern California. "I think we could reasonably predict that there would be a decline in vaccination rates among children, and perhaps vaccination overall."
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. criticizes FDA, eyes role in Trump's healthcare team -- Former presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is slated to hold a potentially big role in a new Trump administration, said Wednesday there are “entire departments” within the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) that “have to go.”“In some categories … there are entire departments, like the nutrition department at the FDA … that have to go, that are not doing their job, they’re not protecting our kids,” Kennedy said during an interview on MSNBC.Kennedy endorsed President-elect Trump in August after initially running as a Democratic candidate for president, and then as an independent. Trump’s win in the presidential race sets Kennedy up as a winner himself, who is likely to play some kind of role in health care for the Trump administration.Kennedy last week said Trump assured him he would get a role in The White House if he won the presidential election.“We don’t know what I’m going to do. I talked to the president about it yesterday, and he asked me what I wanted, and I said, we’re developing a proposal now,” Kennedy said during a separate interview with Fox News anchor Martha MacCallum, who asked if Kennedy is getting the job of Health and Human Services secretary.That job would require Senate confirmation. Republicans appear likely to have a majority in the Senate of at least 52 seats, but it is unclear how easy it would be to get Kennedy confirmed. There has been plenty of speculation that Kennedy would serve in a role that does not require Senate confirmation.Howard Lutnick, the co-chair of Trump’s transition team, recently said Kennedy is “not getting a job” as HHS leader.When asked if he would eliminate any health agencies, Kennedy told MSNBC, “to eliminate the agencies, as long as it requires congressional approval, I wouldn’t be doing that.”“I can get the corruption out of the agencies,” he added.
GOP eyes Senate majority as Casey trails in Pennsylvania --Senate Republicans are feeling optimistic they’ll expand their majority to 53 seats next year as Sen. Bob Casey (D) is trailing Republican David McCormick in Pennsylvania by more than 50,000 votes with 95 percent of the vote counted. They had a huge night on Tuesday, picking up Sen. Joe Manchin’s (I) seat in West Virginia and knocking off 3rd-term Sens. Sherrod Brown (D) and Jon Tester (D) by comfortable margins in Ohio and Montana to guarantee themselves a 52-seat Senate majority next year. Now Senate GOP strategists are feeling confident about defeating Casey, who has represented Pennsylvania in the Senate since 2006, as well. “Pennsylvania is likely R,” said a Senate GOP strategist. Election officials are still waiting to count about 50,000 ballots in Cambria County, a Republican stronghold, because of scanner malfunctions. Mark Davin Harris, a consultant to McCormick’s campaign, predicted on the social media platform X that the uncounted 10,000 mail-in ballots from Democratic-leaning Chester County and the uncounted 30,000 mail-in ballots from Philadelphia would not be enough to allow Casey to catch up to McCormick. “Not only can Casey not [catch] McCormick but the odds are McCormick lead will grow in the hours to come. This is all over but the official call,” he posted. McCormick helped former President Trump’s decisive victory in the state. Trump carried Pennsylvania with 51 percent of the vote, leading Harris by more than 155,000 votes with 95 percent of the vote counted. Senate Republicans could even grow their majority to 54 seats as the race between Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) and Republican Sam Brown is a “toss-up” in Nevada. Brown leads Rosen by fewer than 1,000 votes with 84 percent of the vote counted.
Republicans win majority in the Senate, flipping control of upper chamber, CBS News projects — Republicans gained control of the Senate in the 2024 elections, with GOP wins in a handful of key races cementing the new majority and flipping party control of the upper chamber. With a Senate map heavily in their favor, Republicans flipped West Virginia and Ohio giving them at least a 51-seat majority as a handful of races remained toss ups. One race that became surprisingly competitive in the final stretch of the campaign, Nebraska, brought the GOP over the finish line. Democrats currently have a 51-49 majority in the Senate. But Sen. Joe Manchin's decision to leave Congress all but guaranteed a Republican flip in deep-red West Virginia, and opportunities for Republican pickups in a handful of other states spelled trouble for the Democrats. Meanwhile, Democrats had set their sights on possible pickup opportunities in Florida and Texas — which are projected to remain in Republican hands — while working to defend their most vulnerable seats. Republicans last won a majority in the Senate in 2018, before Democrats went on to secure a narrow majority in the two most recent elections. The Republican victory will have major implications for the new administration — either bolstering the president's agenda, or serving as a blockade for the opposing party. The win tees up a high-stakes race for leadership of the chamber, after Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell announced plans earlier this year to step down from leadership. Minority Whip John Thune, a South Dakota Republican, and Sen. John Cornyn, a Texas Republican, are considered the front-runners in the race to replace the longest-serving party leader in Senate history.
Bitcoiners celebrate as Bernie Moreno ousts Sherrod Brown, Ohio upset --Crypto fans are celebrating the results of the Ohio Senate race, where blockchain entrepreneur Bernie Moreno has defeated Senate Banking Chair Sherrod Brown, a three-term incumbent, in a contest that was key in the battle for control of the U.S. Senate.Some $40 million of crypto money was directed at defeating Brown, with one PAC paying for five ads designed to boost awareness of Moreno, a businessman who worked as a luxury car dealer and had virtually no name recognition going into the contest. The race was also a litmus test for whether the more than $245 million raised by the crypto industry this cycle would prove effective at the ballot box. The Ohio contest drew more ad spending than any Senate race in history, and was the biggest single target of crypto money this cycle. Brown was unpopular with crypto fans, in part because he backed Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., in holding hearings on whether digital tokens were tied to terrorism. He voted against pro-crypto legislation, called for more regulation of the sector and regularly posted anti-crypto rhetoric on social media. Ripple's billionaire co-founder, Chris Larsen, told CNBC on Tuesday night that Brown's loss is "more fallout from the disastrous decision by President Joe Biden to outsource financial regulation to Sen. Warren." "Tonight I'm sad, but I'm never giving up," Brown said in brief concession remarks Tuesday evening.In December, Brown told journalists that he wasn't concerned about the crypto industry's rumblings against him."Bring 'em on," Politico quoted Brown as saying to a crowd of reporters last year.His antagonists are now taking a victory lap.Tyler Winklevoss, one of the top individual crypto contributors this election cycle, called Brown a "crypto public enemy," a "co-conspirator" to Warren, and a "Gary Gensler crony," referring to the chair of the SEC. In a post on X, Winklevoss wrote, "The crypto army is striking!"Bitcoin could hit $100k before inauguration if Trump delivers on pro-crypto campaign pledges Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong is equally excited."Tonight the crypto voter has spoken decisively — across party lines and in key races across the country," Armstrong wrote in apost to X.Armstrong called it the "most pro-crypto Congress ever" with more than 219 crypto-friendly candidates elected to the House and Senate.The Stand With Crypto Alliance, launched by Coinbase last year, started a "Live election results" lander for crypto investors to keep track of the results. According to the tracker, 224 pro-crypto candidates have been elected to the House, against 106 anti-crypto House candidates who have won. In the Senate, 14 pro-crypto candidates have been elected, while nine anti-crypto candidates have been victorious.Coinbase gave more than $75 million to Fairshake and its affiliated PACs, including a fresh pledge of $25 million to support the group in the 2026 midterms. Armstrong personally was among crypto's top individual donors, giving over $1.3 million to a mix of candidates up and down the ballot.Coinbase has been battling Gensler in court for more than a year over claims it sells unregistered securities.The industry hopes that a pro-crypto Congress will pass rules that will apportion more of the regulatory responsibilities to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which has traditionally been softer on its approach to policing the sector.
John Fetterman criticizes AP's call in Pennsylvania Senate race --Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) criticized The Associated Press on Thursday over its call for the Republican challenger in the Pennsylvania Senate race, saying the outlet “shouldn’t make a call in this race” just yet.“We still have tens of thousands of votes to be counted across the Commonwealth,” Fettermansaid in a post on social platform X. “@AP_Politics shouldn’t make a call in this race until every Pennsylvanian has their vote counted.”The AP said Thursday that Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) had lost his race to Republican Dave McCormick.Decision Desk HQ, The Hill’s partner, has not yet called the race. According to election results from Decision Desk HQ, McCormick is leading Casey by 0.5 percentage points, with McCormick at 49 percent and Casey at 48.5 percent, as of 6 p.m. EST.“As the Pennsylvania Secretary of State said this afternoon, there are tens of thousands of ballots across the Commonwealth still to count, which includes provisional ballots, military and overseas ballots, and mail ballots,” Casey campaign spokesperson Maddy McDaniel said in a statement posted to X about 25 minutes after AP announced its race call.“This race is within half a point and cannot be called while the votes of thousands of Pennsylvanians are still being counted. We will make sure every Pennsylvanian’s voice is heard.”
California Republican who impeached Trump wins reelection -- Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.)will win another term representing his House district, a key victory for Republicans trying to keep their narrow House majority, Decision Desk HQ projects. Valadao defeated Democrat Rudy Salas in a rematch of the 2022 race for California’s 22nd Congressional District. His win is particularly notable because he was running in a district that comfortably voted for President Biden in 2020, making him a prime target for Democrats. He also was likely to have to rely on split-ticket voting again with Vice President Harris expected to carry the district. One poll from October showed her leading former President Trump by 14 points. Valadao only beat Salas two years ago by 3 points but was able to hang on for another term. Salas is a former California state Assembly member. Valadao’s victory is also notable because he’s one of two remaining House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump following the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol. The other one is Rep.Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.), who won reelection earlier on Thursday, according to Decision Desk/The Hill HQ.The other eight House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump either declined to run for reelection or lost in the 2022 midterms. Trump boosted primary opponents to several of these members but did not focus as much as ousting Valadao.
Several uncalled House races will determine party control of the chamber -Control of the House has yet to be determined as a number of critical races remain too-close-to-call, leaving lawmakers — and voters — waiting to see which party will hold the majority next year. Republicans had secured 214 seats in the lower chamber as of Thursday evening, with Democrats trailing at 200 seats, according to Decision Desk HQ. A total of 21 races have not yet been called: Democrats are leading in 13 of the contests while GOP candidates are ahead in the other eight. Republicans, nonetheless, are wasting no time in claiming victory even as the final tally remains unclear. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has said the House is poised to remain in GOP hands, and he has already launched his bid to retain hold of the gavel. Democrats, meanwhile, are holding out hope that they could eke out a razor-thin majority. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) on Thursday said “it has yet to be decided who will control” the House next year, pointing to ongoing ballot counting in Oregon, Arizona and California. Here are the uncalled races to watch in the quest for control of the House.
- California’s 21st congressional district - Rep. Jim Costa (D-Calif.) is fighting for his political life in California’s 21nd congressional district in a race that has surprisingly emerged as a nail-biter this cycle. Costa, a 10-term lawmaker, was leading Republican Michael Maher, a former FBI agent, by 0.8 percentage points — or 1,009 votes — at the time of publication, according to Decision Desk HQ, with 58 percent of the vote in.The race was never expected to be close. The district broke for President Biden by 20.3 percentage points in 2020, and Cook Political Report said the seat was a “solid Democrat.” A victory by Maher would flip the district red.
- California’s 9th congressional district - Rep. Josh Harder (D-Calif.) is locked in a tight race against Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln (R) in California’s 9th congressional district, a contest that is threatening to end the incumbent’s tenure on Capitol Hill. Harder, who was first elected to the House in 2018, was leading Lincoln by 1.4 percentage points at the time of publication, with 56 percent of the vote reported. A victory by Lincoln, who has served as mayor of Stockton since 2021, would be a boon for Republicans: Biden won the district by 12.6 percentage points in 2020, making the district reliably blue. Cook Political Report had rated the district “likely Democrat.”
- California’s 47th congressional district - The race to succeed outgoing Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.) in California’s 47th congressional district is coming down to the wire, with Republican Scott Baugh, a former assemblyman, and Democratic state Sen. Dave Min running neck-and-neck for the seat. Baugh, who previously served as the state’s Assembly minority leader and Orange County GOP chair, was leading Min by 0.4 percentage points — or 1,133 votes — as of publication, with 76 percent of ballots reported. A Baugh victory would flip the seat red and mark the first time the district has a GOP representative since 2003. Biden won the district by 11.1 percentage points in 2020. Cook Political Report rated the district a “lean Democrat.”
- Maryland’s 6th congressional district - The race to succeed outgoing Rep. David Trone (D) in Maryland’s 6th congressional district is tight, with fewer than 500 ballots separating the two candidates. Democrat April McClain-Delaney, who served in the Commerce Department during the Biden administration, was leading Republican Neil Parrott, a former member of the Maryland House of Delegates, by 1,318 votes — or 0.4 percentage points — Thursday evening, with 89 percent of the vote in.
- Alaska’s at-large congressional district - Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska) is fighting for political survival in Alaska’s at-large congressional district, where she is currently trailing Republican entrepreneur Nick Begich in the ranked-choice-voting state. Begich was leading Peltola 49.6 percent to 45.5 percent with 74 percent of the vote in at the time of publication. Alaskan Independence Party candidate John Howe secured 3.9 percent and Democrat Eric Hafner pulled in one percent.The lone Alaska district is one of six that President-elect Trump won in 2020, making it a key pick-up target for Republicans. That year, Trump beat Biden in the state by 10.1 percentage points.
- Arizona’s 1st congressional district - Rep. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.) is battling for another term representing Arizona’s 1st congressional district against former Democratic Arizona House member Amish Shah. Schweikert was leading Shah by 2.8 percentage points with 81 percent of the votes counted. The district is a top priority for Democrats, who were hoping to oust Schweikert and install a Democrat after the district broke for Biden 1.5 percentage points in 2020. It is one of 17 districts Biden won in the last presidential cycle that are currently represented by Republicans.
- Arizona’s 6th congressional district - The race in Arizona’s 6th congressional district has become as close as it can be. Former Democratic state lawmaker Kirsten Engel was leading Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.), a first-term lawmaker, by just 70 votes with 76 percent of ballots tallied. The two candidates were tied at 48.9 percent apiece. The district is as purple as any can get: In 2020, Biden won the area by 0.1 percentage points.
- California’s 13th congressional district - Rep. John Duarte (R-Calif.) is leading former Democratic state assemblymember Adam Gray in California’s 13th congressional district, but the closely watched race remains uncalled. With 53 percent of the vote in, Duarte — a first-term lawmaker — was ahead of Gray by 2.8 percentage points.
- California’s 22nd congressional district -Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.) is fighting to retain his seat in California’s 22nd congressional district — and as things currently stand, he is poised to spend another two years on Capitol Hill. The California Republican was leading Democratic challenger Rudy Salas by 10 percentage points — or just over 9,800 votes — as of publication, with 57 percent of the vote in.
- California’s 27th congressional district -Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.) is slightly ahead in his race against Democrat George Whitesides, the former Virgin Galactic CEO who also served as NASA chief of staff during the Obama administration — but the numbers are tight.Garcia, a first-term lawmaker, is leading Whitesides by 2.1 percentage points with 72 percent of the vote in.A win by Garcia would let out a sigh of relief among Republicans, who were under pressure to defend the seat amid a strong Democratic effort. Democrats consider the district a top pick-up opportunity, citing the fact that it broke for Biden by 12.4 percentage points in 2020.
- California’s 41st congressional district - Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Calif.) is fighting tooth and nail to hold his seat in California’s 41st congressional district. Calvert — a 30-plus year veteran of the House who is a cardinal on the Appropriations Committee — was leading Democrat Will Rollins, a former federal prosecutor, by 2.8 percentage points with 69 percent of the vote in.
- Colorado’s 8th congressional district - Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-Colo.) is hanging on in Colorado’s 8th congressional district by a slim margin against Republican state Rep. Gabe Evans.Caraveo, a first-term lawmaker, led Evans by 0.8 percentage points with 79 percent of the vote in.Cook Political Report rated the seat a “toss up.”
- Oregon’s 5th congressional district - Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Ore.) is in danger of being defeated in Oregon’s 5th congressional district, where Democratic state Rep. Janelle Bynum is leading the incumbent. Bynum was ahead of Chavez-DeRemer by 2.4 percentage points with 80 percent of the vote in. Independent Brett Smith earned 4.6 percent of the vote, Libertarian Sonja Feintech notched 1.5 percent, and Libertarian Sonja Feintech secured one percent.
- Washington’s 3rd congressional district - Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.) looked poised to squeak out a victory against Republican Joe Kent, staying on despite being one of the most vulnerable Democrats up for reelection this cycle. Gluesenkamp Perez, a first-term lawmaker, was leading Joe Kent, a retired Green Beret backed by Trump, by 3.6 percentage points with 86 percent of the vote in.
- California’s 49th congressional district -Rep. Mike Levin (D-Calif.) is close to securing another two years in Congress, though the race has not yet been called as more ballots are counted.Levin, a three-term lawmaker, was leading Republican business owner Matt Gunderson by two percentage points as of publication time, with 74 percent of the vote accounted for. Cook Political Report rated the seat a “lean Democrat,” which sits in a district that Biden won by 11.4 percentage points in 2020.
- California’s 6th congressional district - Rep. Ami Bera (D-Calif.) is poised to win another term representing California’s 6th congressional district, as he is leading Republican Christine Bish by a healthy margin.With 45 percent of the vote in, Bera, a first-term lawmaker, was leading Bish, a small business owner, by 13.6 percentage points, though the race had not yet been called by Decision Desk HQ.
- California’s 38th congressional district -Rep. Linda Sanchez (D-Calif.) is enjoying a healthy lead against Republican Eric Ching in California’s 38th congressional district. Sanchez, a six-term lawmaker, was leading Ching by 13.6 percentage points with 61 percent of the vote in. The race, however, has not yet been called.
- California’s 26th congressional district -The race between Rep. Julia Brownley (D), a six-term lawmaker, and Michael Koslow, a Republican businessman, remained uncalled as of publication, but the incumbent is poised to pick up another two years in Washington. Brownley led Koslow by 8.8 percentage points Thursday evening, with 67 percent of votes reported.
- California’s 39th congressional district - Rep. Mark Takao (D-Calif.) is likely to win another term on Capitol Hill, though votes are still being tallied in California’s 39th congressional district. As of Thursday evening, Takano led Republican business owner David Serpa by 10.3 percentage points with 56 percent of the vote reported.
- Oregon’s 6th congressional districtFirst-term Rep. Andrea Salinas (D-Ore.) is in good position to beat out Republican businessman Mike Erickson in Oregon’s 6th congressional district.Salinas was leading Erickson by seven percentage points with 69 percent of the vote in. Her current lead is larger than the final margin of her match-up against Erickson in 2020. That cycle, Salinas beat Erickson by 2.5 percentage points.
- California’s 45th congressional district - Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Calif) has a healthy lead against Democrat Derek Tran, though the race has not yet been called.With 72 percent of the vote in, Steel, a two-term lawmaker, was ahead of Tran, a consumer rights attorney, by 4.2 percentage points.The district is one of the 17 areas Biden won in 2020 that are currently represented by a Republican, making it a top pick-up target for Democrats. Biden won the area, which includes Orange and Los Angeles Counties, by 6.1 percentage points in 2020. Cook Political Report rated the seat a “toss up.”
Republicans on brink of clinching US House control (Reuters) - Republicans on Saturday appeared close to clinching control of the U.S. House of Representatives, a critical element for President-elect Donald Trump to advance his agenda when he returns to the White House in January. With votes still being counted from the Nov. 5 general election, Republicans had won 212 seats in the 435-member House, according to Edison Research, which projected on Friday night that Republican Jeff Hurd had enough votes to keep Republican control of Colorado's 3rd congressional district. Republicans need to win six more seats to keep control of the House and they already have enough victories to wrest control of the U.S. Senate from Democrats, though Edison Research projected late on Friday that Democratic U.S. Senator Jacky Rosen won reelection in Nevada. With Trump's victory in the presidential election and Republican control of the Senate already decided, keeping hold of the House would give Republicans sweeping powers to potentially ram through a broad agenda of tax and spending cuts, energy deregulation and border security controls. Results of 19 House races remain unclear, mostly in competitive districts in Western states where the pace of vote counting is typically slower than in the rest of the country. Ten of the seats are currently held by Republicans and nine by Democrats. Fourteen seats were widely seen as competitive ahead of the election. Republican senators will decide next week who will serve as the party's leader in the Senate in 2025 with John Thune, John Cornyn and Rick Scott vying for the job. On Saturday, Senators Bill Hagerty and Rand Paul endorsed Scott over the more senior Thune and Cornyn, who have been viewed as favorites.
Dow soars 1,500 points to record high in best day since 2022 after Trump election win: Live updates -- Stocks rallied sharply on Wednesday, with major benchmarks hitting record highs, as Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election.The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 1,508.05 points, or 3.57%, to a record close of 43,729.93. The last time the blue-chip Dow jumped more than 1,000 points in a single day was in November 2022.The S&P 500 also hit an all-time high, popping 2.53% to 5,929.04. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 2.95% to a record of its own of 18,983.47.NBC News projects that Trump will defeat his Democratic rival, Kamala Harris, after winning at least 291 Electoral College votes, including key swing states of Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia.Investments seen as beneficiaries under a Trump presidency erupted as the former president appeared set for victory.Tesla, whose CEO Elon Musk is a prominent backer of Trump, saw shares surge more than 14%. Bank shares got a boost with JPMorgan Chase climbing 11.5% andWells Fargo jumping 13%.The small-cap benchmark Russell 2000 surged 5.84%, hitting a 52-week high. Small companies, which are more domestic-oriented and cyclical, are believed to enjoy outsized benefits from Trump's tax cuts and protectionist policies."Trump is viewed as supporting lower corporate tax rates, deregulation, and industrial policies that favor domestic growth, all of which could provide more stimulus to the U.S. economy and benefit risk assets. … During the 2016 election, the S&P 500 Index gained nearly 5% from the day before the presidential election through the end of the year in what became known as the Trump rally. We expect a similar trend could play out this time around, too," Marc Pinto, head of Americas equities at Janus Henderson Investors, said in a note. Bitcoin, which could benefit from relaxed regulation, soared to an all-time high and topped $76,000. The dollar index climbed to its highest level since July on the belief that Trump's proposed tariffs against major U.S. trading partners would boost the greenback. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to around 4.43% on speculation Trump's proposed tax cuts and other spending plans would spark economic growth, but also widen the fiscal deficit and reignite inflation.Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group, a social media company closely tied to Trump, finished up 5.9% after a volatile trading session.In the race for Congress, NBC News projects that Republicans will win back the Senate. Leading up to election, Democrats were expected to take control of the House, but so far it was still up for grabs, leaving open the possibility of a so-called red sweep. A Republican wave could lead to more drastic spending changes or a big revamp of tax policy."It looks like a Trump presidential win but also a win for Republicans in House and Senate. If that happens, you're going to see the U.S. economy really taking off," Mark Mobius, Mobius Emerging Opportunities Fund chairman, told CNBC early Wednesday.
Foreign automaker stocks slide on Trump tariff fears — Stock prices of foreign automakers, including Chinese and German manufacturers, fell sharply on Wednesday amid concerns the U.S. will hike tariffs on imported vehicles under President-elect Donald Trump. European-traded shares of BMW and Mercedes-Benz were off around 6.5%, while Porsche was down by 4.9% and Volkswagen declined 4.3%. Shares of U.S.-traded Chinese automakers such as Li Auto and Nio also were down 3.3% and 5.3%, respectively. Over-the-counter shares of BYD , which aren't publicly listed in the U.S. but can be bought through a broker, declined 4.5%. Trump has repeatedly said he will increase tariffs on many products, including new cars and trucks from China, Europe and Mexico, where many automakers, including Europeans, have established manufacturing hubs. U.S.-traded shares of Japanese automakers Toyota Motor and Honda Motor closed Wednesday up less than 0.5% and down 8%, respectively. Both also reported declines in quarterly earnings earlier in the day. Trump made several proclamations regarding tariffs during his campaign, including calling for a more than 200% duty or tax to be levied on imported vehicles from Mexico. He also has threatened, as he did during his first term in office, to increase imports on European vehicles.
Pro-crypto House member wins Senate seat in California - Soon after the polls closed in California at 8 p.m. local time, major news outlets called the race for Adam Schiff, a Democrat who currently represents the state's 30th Congressional District just outside of Los Angeles, encompassing the city of Burbank. Adam Schiff, known as a pro-cryptocurrency lawmaker, has also introduced bills that would regulate "revolving door" employment at banking regulators.
'A new American renaissance' — crypto celebrates Trump's return -- Crypto advocates took a victory lap on Wednesday as the vast amounts of money they poured into the U.S. elections yielded huge dividends, from Donald Trump's reelection to down-ballot wins for politicians friendly to the sector. Once a crypto skeptic, Trump corralled tens of millions of dollars in industry support for Republican candidates by promising to make America the Bitcoin superpower of the world.
Dogecoin and other memecoins surge as Trump wins presidential election -- Memecoins surged Wednesday as former President Donald Trump clinched a second term in office. Dogecoin surged more than 15% and Shiba Inu gained 6%, according to Coin Metrics. The moves came as bitcoin rose to a fresh record above $76,000. NBC News projects that Trump will defeat his Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, after winning 276 Electoral College Votes, including some key swing states. "With the crypto markets experiencing low volatility in the lead up to the election as the industry looks to gain clarity on future regulatory conditions, traders are bracing for volatility once results start to come out," said Chris Chung, CEO at Titan, a decentralized exchange aggregator built on the Solana blockchain. "Certain sectors that have buoyed prices, such as the renewed interest in memecoins, may experience major price movements as individual states report election results." In the lead-up to Election Day, memecoins and AI-related crypto tokens outperformed the overall crypto market. The sector of the crypto market is used as a measure of retail investors' risk appetite. A ramp-up of memecoin activity is a sign that retail investors are participating and have appetite to speculate much further down the risk curve, Ryan Rasmussen, head of research at Bitwise Asset Management, told CNBC. "Given that memecoins have low market caps and liquidity, I'm not surprised to see them skyrocketing alongside the broader crypto rally," he said. "If crypto sells off, I'd expect the same outsized move in memecoins to the downside.""I'd urge long-term investors to not place too much emphasis on memecoin activity," he said. "In the long term, there will be very few winners in the memecoin market, and with thousands of coins launching daily, picking a specific memecoin is akin to buying a lotto ticket."The president-elect is seen as the more favorable candidate for the broader crypto market beyond bitcoin as he has promised a more cypto-friendly Securities and Exchange Commission if elected for another term."Trump has largely been seen as extremely positive for the cryptocurrency markets, and any indication of a possible victory will likely push prices up extremely quickly in anticipation of a flood of capital being deployed," Chung said."Dogecoin specifically could also be rallying on "the very real prospects that Elon Musk [a long-time Dogecoin proponent] could be appointed to head the Department of Government Efficiency in a Trump admin," said Nic Puckrin, co-founder and CEO at crypto education platform Coin Bureau.That refers to remarks made by Trump in September, when he said he would appoint the Tesla CEO to a "government efficiency commission." Musk, who has called himself the "Dogefather" in the past and has been known to make public comments about the memecoin that influence its price, has since on his social media platform X referred to the commission as the "Department of Government Efficiency," or "D.O.G.E."
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong $2 billion richer on election stock pop --Election Day proved hugely successful for the crypto industry. Nobody was a bigger winner than Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong.Coinbase shares soared 31% on Wednesday, their best day on record, as investors celebrated the company's victorious effortsto get pro-crypto candidates into office. Fairshake, the Coinbase-backed PAC, says that of the 58 candidates it supported, 46 won, with the remaining contests 12 still undecided.Armstrong, who co-founded Coinbase in 2012 and took itpublic in 2021, remains the crypto exchange's biggest investor, with ownership of well over 10% of the company's outstanding shares. As of the latest proxy filing, he owned 34.8 million Class A and Class B shares, a stake that jumped by about $2.1 billion in value on Wednesday to almost $9 billion."Being anti-crypto is simply bad politics," Armstrong wrote in apost on X, after Ohio Republican Bernie Moreno was declared the winner in his state's Senate race over incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown. In a lengthier follow-up post on Wednesday, Armstrong said "no matter how you slice it, this election was huge win for crypto." Bitcoin jumped over 9.5%, reaching a record of over $76,400.A Coinbase spokesperson declined to comment further.We're in a good position for liquidity cycles for crypto, says Neoclassic Capital's Michael BucellaSome $40 million of crypto money was directed at defeating Brown, the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee. One PAC paid for five ads designed to boost awareness of Moreno, a blockchain entrepreneur with very little name recognition entering the race.The Stand With Crypto Alliance, which Coinbase launched last year, gave Brown an "F" grade, while it issued Moreno an "A."Moreno flipped the seat, winning 50.3% of votes cast to 46.3% for Moreno, according to NBC News. His win helped ensure amajority for the Republicans in Senate, alongside Republican nominee Donald Trump's victory in the presidential contest."I am so grateful to Ohioans for their resounding support in this race," Moreno said in a statement Tuesday night. "I look forward to working with the new Republican Senate majority to fix our economy, secure our border, and return to American strength at home and abroad."Moreno's statement made no mention of crypto, despite the fact that the industry bankrolled his campaign. For Armstrong, politics has become a big part of the job as his company fights for a friendlier Washington and more amenable regulatory environment.Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler sued Coinbase last year over claims that it sells unregistered securities. A judge has since ruled that the case should be heard by a jury. Coinbase has fought back vociferously, and has also said that it wants to work with regulators to come up with a proper set of laws governing the nascent industry. Armstrong told CNBC in September that his visits to the nation's capital used to take place once or twice a year. Then it got to be at least a quarterly occasion. And the pace has only increased."In the beginning, a lot of people didn't know what crypto was," Armstrong said of his earlier trips. Now, "the discussion has advanced, really, to, how do we pass clear rules, create legislation in the United States?" In the 2024 election cycle, Coinbase was one of the top corporate donors, giving more than $75 million to Fairshake and its affiliate PACs, including a fresh pledge of $25 million to support the pro-crypto super PAC in the 2026 midterms. Armstrong personally contributed more than $1.3 million to a mix of candidates up and down the ballot. Coinbase stayed out of the presidential contest and focused its finances exclusively on congressional races, in an effort to assemble a group of lawmakers with favorable views of the industry.Coinbase's big post-election pop more than makes up for the 15% drop in the stock last week after the company reported disappointing quarterly results due to lower transaction revenue and a drop in subscriptions services revenue. Paul Grewal, Coinbase's chief legal officer, attended multiple fundraisers for Trump in the months before the election. As the results were rolling in Tuesday, Grewal said in a post on X that he hopes the SEC "understands what has happened tonight.""Stop suing crypto," Grewal wrote. "Start talking to crypto. Initiate rulemaking now. There's no reason to wait." Armstrong reposted the Grewal's comments, adding one word of his own: "True."
Crypto won the 2024 elections. Now comes the easy part. - The cryptocurrency industry, once an afterthought for policymakers, is poised to have more power in Washington than ever before.The return of President-elect Donald Trump and a potential GOP Congress are delivering a dream-come-true scenario for crypto executives and investors who spent more than $130 million on the 2024 elections.Trump’s second term is expected to usher in the first expressly pro-crypto administration after he courted digital asset enthusiasts during the campaign and vowed to enact an array of industry-friendly changes. On Capitol Hill, crypto allies will likely be elevated to key committee leadership posts.“This is massive,” Digital Chamber President Cody Carbone said. “We now have the most crypto-friendly Congress and administration coming into Washington that we’ve ever had.”Taken together, it all but ensures that Washington will soon overhaul an array of financial regulations in ways that align with the crypto industry’s biggest asks. And Republicans may go even further, with once-unimaginable ideas like a “strategic bitcoin reserve” not sounding so far-fetched in the new political world unleashed this week.“What happened [Tueday] night was a watershed moment for crypto,” said Paul Grewal, chief legal officer of crypto giant Coinbase, which was the top contributor to the industry’s super PAC group.The industry’s wish list includes legislation that would carve out a bespoke path to legitimacy among regulators who have for much of crypto’s existence put a strong emphasis on reining in its potential risks to consumers and the financial system. The top target would be limiting the reach of the Securities and Exchange Commission, which in the Biden era has cracked down on the industry. Trump has vowed to fire SEC Chair Gary Gensler, who is crypto’s top foe in the nation’s capital, and said he will enact new regulations that “will be written by people who love” crypto. Some proposals go even further. Trump pledged to commute the sentence of Ross Ulbricht, the founder of the online illegal drug marketplace Silk Road, which used bitcoin for transactions. And Trump and other Republicans haveendorsed differing plans to have the federal government stockpile bitcoin, despite skepticism from economists and some GOP lawmakers.The spending by industry-funded super PACs helped elect a wave of lawmakers who have signaled support for crypto’s policy goals. They include at least six new pro-crypto senators and more than a dozen crypto-friendly House members, ranging from progressive Democrats to Trump-aligned Republicans.The crypto super PACs’ biggest and riskiest bet of this cycle, a $40 million campaign against Senate Banking Chair Sherrod Brown in Ohio, paid off. The Democrat, who has been a hurdle to the industry’s legislative interests, fell to Republican Bernie Moreno, a longtime crypto enthusiast.“That’s a move that will be remembered as being very bold, but one that will have resonated with lawmakers in Washington,” said Blockchain Association CEO Kristin Smith, whose group represents major crypto players like Coinbase, the venture capital firms Andreessen Horowitz and Paradigm and decentralized finance firm Uniswap Labs.Some crypto players are already doubling down in advance of the next election cycle. The super PAC network, Fairshake, has amassed more than $78 million to spend on the 2026 midterms, a significant initial haul intended to signal that crypto’s influence machine is here to stay.
What Trump promised the crypto industry ahead of the election --As Donald Trump celebrated his prospective victory on Election Night at Mar-a-Lago, he was joined by a roster of high-profile supporters. Among them were Elon Musk, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick. One thing those three people have in common: crypto.It's an industry that Trump talked little about until recently but has counted on for large amounts of cash for his campaign and related PACs. Getting that money required him to make big promises pertaining to the crypto industry. Digital asset markets surged on Election Night, with bitcoin hitting a record of over $75,000, as his victory began looking likely. Crypto-linked stocks like Coinbase andMicroStrategy moved higher as well in after-hours trading Tuesday.With a Republican-controlled Senate on the horizon, Trump has few roadblocks to putting in place a more pro-crypto platform. Here are some of the things he's pledged to do:In Nashville in July, Trump headlined the biggest bitcoin conference of the year. In his keynote address, the former president said that if he returned to the White House, he would ensure the federal government never sells off its bitcoin holdings. However, he stopped short of proposing a formal federal reserve of digital currency."For too long our government has violated the cardinal rule that every bitcoiner knows by heart: Never sell your bitcoin," Trump said during his keynote speech.Trump pledged to maintain the current level of bitcoin holdings that the U.S. has amassed from seizing assets from financial criminals. "If I am elected, it will be the policy of my administration, United States of America, to keep 100% of all the bitcoin the U.S. government currently holds or acquires into the future," he said.Currently, the U.S. Marshals Service regularly auctions off bitcoin as well as other cryptocurrencies held in the country's coffers such as ether and litecoin. These sales can sometimes trigger drops in crypto prices, like earlier this year when Germany began to liquidate hundreds of millions of dollars worth of bitcoin it had seized.In public remarks for months, Trump has promised to unseat U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler."On day one, I will fire Gary Gensler," Trump said, referencing the Joe Biden-appointed SEC chairman who has taken an aggressive approach to crypto regulation.The president does not have the power to fire the SEC chair. Even if Trump were to appoint a new chairman, Gensler would remain a commissioner on the independent agency.Gensler has brought more than 100 actions against crypto firms during his tenure at the helm of the commission. In multiple interviews, the SEC chair has said he believes much of the industry already belongs under its jurisdiction, and its lawsuits are simply bringing the sector under compliance.Crypto firms argue that the recent legal battles haven't given the regulatory clarity the industry has been seeking, and they instead reflect a gross overreach by the commission.Trump also vowed to create a "bitcoin and crypto presidential advisory council.""The rules will be written by people who love your industry, not hate your industry," he said.Trump has expressly spoken out about his qualms with Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., who is widely viewed by the crypto community as an existential threat.
Crypto mergers expected to rise under Trump; Tether and Stripe eye acquisitions -- A number of merger consultants and venture capitalists surveyed by Bloomberg believe that during Donald Trump's presidency, the number of mergers and acquisitions in the cryptocurrency sector will increase significantly.“With Trump in the White House, we expect 2025 to be a much more successful year for deal-making,” said Casper Johansen, head of digital asset consulting at Spartan Group.According to Haseeb Qureshi, managing partner at Dragonfly Capital, Trump’s victory and the change in leadership at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will ease concerns over deal-blocking, business bans, or legal action from the SEC.According to CryptoSlate, crypto firms that have already announced plans to make deals include the brokerage firm FalconX and Tether. Specifically, Tether announced in June that it plans to invest $1 billion in acquiring new businesses over the next 12 months.Additionally, last month, the fintech company Stripe Inc., valued at around $70 billion, announced plans to acquire the stablecoin startup Bridge for approximately $1.1 billion.Some investment bankers specializing in digital assets have stated that they expect mergers and acquisitions to be used more frequently to accelerate expansion plans during Trump’s second term.However, even with relaxed SEC oversight, there are several obstacles to increased activity in this sector. The primary issue is the differing valuations of companies by sellers and buyers. Most crypto companies raised funding during a bull market, which ended in 2022. This means that their latest funding valuations are much higher than current market valuations, making it challenging for buyers and sellers to reach agreements.
BankThink:To regulate cryptocurrencies, treat the tech as a tool, not a threat The conversation around cryptocurrency regulation has thus far been framed as adversarial: traditional finance vs. decentralized finance, Web 2.0 vs. Web 3.0, regulated institutions vs. the "Wild West." To move forward, a shift in perspective is necessary. This isn't the first time the development of a new technology has required new financial regulation. In the past, regulators have not only adapted existing regulations, but they have also made use of technological innovations to better achieve their mission of safe and stable markets. Financial regulators and policymakers should seize the opportunity that is before them today: Decentralized blockchain technology can help further their own objectives. Decentralized digital ledgers offer financial services supervisors extraordinary access to information while eliminating concerns about information reliability. That should be reflected in regulatory attitudes toward crypto.
Donald Trump's presidency makes payments regulations uncertain The Republican party's lurch to the populist right has changed the traditional script for payments industry deregulation, which is bad news for credit card interests hoping for less antitrust pressure, but good news for those hoping to cash in on cryptocurrency. A digital dollar is likely on the way out in favor of non-government crypto, but those betting for fewer restrictions on fees and less antitrust litigation will likely be disappointed.
Fintechs need to be more proactive about regulatory compliance -- In the wake of Synapse's collapse and multiple enforcement actions against banks involved in fintech partnerships, regulators and legislators are stepping up demands for stricter oversight and clearer guidelines to ensure better accountability in the industry. The Federal Reserve'srecent enforcement action against Evolve serves as a stark reminder of why appropriate focus on the "fin" part of fintech is critical — and what can happen when banks and fintechs drop the ball. The Synapse failure and recent enforcement actions make it clear that fintechs need to up their regulatory compliance game. At the same time, they have an opportunity to help shape future rules.
CFTC Warns of Potential Dangers for Messaging App Users | CFTC — The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Office of Customer Education and Outreach today released a customer advisory alerting messaging app users to beware of schemes to defraud them of assets, specifically crypto assets.Fraudsters are exploiting the default settings of commonly used messaging apps, telephone networks, and mobile devices to lure users into crypto pump-and-dump schemes and other scams.The customer advisory, Use Caution Responding to Messaging Apps, informs users of the default settings of WhatsApp, Telegram, and other popular messaging apps that allow scammers to add random or targeted phone numbers to group chats that are used for fraudulent activity. Similarly, default SMS text settings on smart phones allow for a greater number of spam texts that can result in fraud.“People who use these apps may not be familiar with the risks and frauds commonly associated with crypto assets,” said Melanie Devoe, director of the CFTC’s Office of Customer Education and Outreach. “Receiving a group message promising 300% or 1,000% returns with zero risk or getting in on a supposed crypto opportunity, can be enticing, but it is best to not engage.” The customer advisory, provides easy actions app users should take if they receive a message from an unfamiliar person or number saying “you’ve been added to a messaging app’s group chat”:
- Do not reply.
- Delete the messages or group discussions, block the senders and send text messages to junk or forward it to7726 (SPAM).
- Change your privacy settings to protect your information and reduce future spam.
- Most apps, mobile carriers and devices provide ways to restrict who may contact you or block specific numbers. Check each messaging apps’ settings. Next, check your carrier’s account app settings, and your device settings. Many major carriers also offer free SMS spam-blocking or call filtering apps that can be added to your phone.
Fraudsters are contacting potential victims on their phones to try to lure them into cryptocurrency scams with promises of guaranteed returns. Spot the fraud by remembering all trades involve a risk of loss. Be suspicious of any messages you receive via WhatsApp, Telegram, SnapChat, WeChat, SMS texts, or other apps that promise guaranteed oversized returns. By default, messaging apps allow anyone with your phone number to call or add you to a discussion group. Scammers use this vulnerability to add random or targeted phone numbers to WhatsApp groups or Telegram chats. You might see a message that you’ve been added to a group, then other messages follow. They might talk about trading crypto futures with leverage, “cooperative trading projects” (also called pump-and-dump schemes), 100, 500, 1,000 percent profits, advanced artificial intelligence, can’t-miss investment programs, or other supposed opportunities. You might also see testimonials from other group members. It’s all fake, lies designed to steal your money. Stranger danger applies to your mobile device too. Responding or complaining confirms to scammers that your number is active and will only lead to more fraud attempts. The same is true for answering unknown callers. Scammers sometimes use robocalls to identify working numbers.Caller ID can be easily faked. If you don’t recognize the phone number, or message sender, do not respond. If you receive an urgent message about a financial account, or from law enforcement, the CFTC, or other government agencies, visit the entity’s official website and confirm the message with customer service staff. Do not use phone numbers or links provided in the message.You should only trade futures with regulated individuals and firms that follow strict qualification, supervision, and customer protection requirements. Learn more about registration at cftc.gov/check. Taking financial advice from unregistered, random people online or trading with unregistered companies that don’t have a physical presence in the United States substantially increase your fraud risk
Colorado Resident Scammed Out of Thousands in Bitcoin by Fake Jury Duty Call - A Keystone, Colorado resident fell victim to a sophisticated crypto scam last week, losing over $6,000 in Bitcoin after fraudsters posed as law enforcement officials threatening arrest for missed jury duty, according to the Summit County Sheriff's Office. According to documentation reviewed by Decrypt, an additional $4,000 transfer was in the works, though deputies were able to intervene before it pushed through. Despite this, the Summit County Sheriff's Office disclosed that the perpetrators had already obtained sensitive personal information during the call. "A deputy will never call anyone to notify them of a warrant for their arrest and then offer to clear it in exchange for gift cards, wire transfers, or Bitcoin," the office stated in its incident report. Call logs from the report indicate that similar incidents continue to emerge across the state, with a separate incident in Denver describing how a woman lost almost $5,000 in Bitcoin after scammers impersonating Denver Police officers convinced her she had missed jury duty. The victim, believing she must have overlooked a jury notice, followed the perpetrator's instructions to clear a fake warrant by sending payment through a Bitcoin ATM. Upon contacting Denver Police to confirm the transaction, she discovered she had been defrauded. Though her bank has been notified of the fraud, the patrol report claims that "it's not likely the money will be recovered." The case mirrors a September incident where Keystone bank staff prevented another resident from transferring $8,000 in crypto after receiving similar fraudulent calls. Scammers have increasingly adopted number spoofing techniques to make calls appear to originate from legitimate law enforcement agencies. Colorado's crypto fraud landscape has expanded significantly, with state investigators documenting over 1,300 cases totaling $81 million in losses during 2023. The state ranks 15th nationally for crypto-related crimes, according to law enforcement data. FBI Denver also issued a warning earlier this year in relation to token impersonation scams, including high-profile cases where some $3.2 million in crypto was allegedly misappropriated by a pastor and his wife, targeting victims through their Christian community, shilling a token called INDXcoin.
Crypto needs to increase defenses against 654% spike in deepfake scams -- Deepfake scams are everywhere, and detecting them with the naked eye is fast becoming impossible. Awareness and education need to be improved. Between 2016’s Bitfinex hack, 2018’s Coincheck hack and other controversial incidents in recent years, the crypto industry has faced significant reputational challenges.In 2024, a new threat emerged: crypto scams featuring celebrity “deepfakes” — highly convincing images of people appearing genuine but who are not. These scams use realistic deepfake images and videos of famous personalities to deceive crypto enthusiasts, leveraging this technology to exploit the unsuspecting, perpetrate fraud and confuse less tech-savvy individuals. As deepfake technology gets increasingly convincing — even to those with a trained eye — deepfake scams threaten not only our wallets but our very sense of reality. The old saying “if it looks like a duck…” may not ring true for much longer. Deepfake technology has advanced rapidly in a short time, making it increasingly difficult to distinguish authentic images or videos from fake ones. Deepfakes of Elon Musk, for example, have been used in countless crypto scams, using Musk’s likeness to endorse crypto scam websites and collect tokens from unassuming victims. From 2023 to 2024, deepfakes in the crypto sector saw a startling growth of 654%, and of all the detected deepfake attempts in 2024, 74% happened in the crypto industry. Initially used for entertainment and artistic purposes, deepfakes have found a darker application in the realm of identity theft, cybercrime, blackmail, social engineering or other nefarious purposes. The erosion of trust in the media or inlegal realms due to visual or audio evidence now being less reliable is also a growing risk. Fraudsters continue to target the unregulated, and the crypto community — awash in possible value and filled with tech-savvy members — has become a prime target for these sophisticated scammers looking to make some quick cash. The “hype” around crypto — that it’s still newer and exciting and full of possible riches — also creates an ecosystem hospitable for scams.The crypto space is further vulnerable to deepfake scams due to its reliance on digital interactions and the high value of many transactions. Scammers use deepfakes to create convincing personas of well-known figures to trick individuals into investing in fraudulent schemes, as well as deepfakes of everyday people to steal their identity and gain access to digital wallets. From political ads to attempts to manipulate personal security protocols to simple mischief or chaos, deepfakes are becoming more and more prevalent, and we need to take this new threat seriously. The days of deepfake videos featuring humans with 16 fingers or a mouthful of teeth resembling a shark are largely behind us. Current deepfakes are deeply convincing, especially in the social media age where consumers may only spend 10 seconds looking at a video, and even less on an image — particularly when a celebrity is a subject, as there is inherent trust in a familiar face. As with any emerging threat, awareness is key, and education on these signs is crucial.Due to the threat to the public, lawmakers in 15 US states introduced legislation in 2024 to combat misinformation and deepfakes, particularly their use in political campaigns. While it’s useful that politicians are aware of the deepfake issue and attempting to curb its use, consumer education remains paramount, as many people don’t directly engage with political content regularly. Social media platforms also bear responsibility for thwarting the distribution of deepfake content and must implement stricter measures to penalize those who spread misinformation, as well as implement detection tools to prevent further spread of misinformation.Beyond the risk of celebrity deepfakes luring users to scam exchanges, there’s an extra layer of complexity with crypto fraud and deepfakes. Everyday users are also left open to identity theft through the leveraging of deepfakes — particularly in the age of social media, where many users share enough information to empower scammers of almost any skill level. The responsibility lies with the crypto exchanges to ensure all checks are in place, especially Know Your Customer, and to recognize patterns in fund exchanges. The rise and impact of crypto fraud, especially those stemming from deepfakes, means both government and enterprise intervention through establishing frameworks and roadblocks to protect all users.
Creator of Crypto Mixer 'Bitcoin Fog' Gets 12 1/2 Years In Prison - The founder of cryptocurrency mixing service Bitcoin Fog was sentenced on Friday to 150 months in prison for operating what prosecutors described as one of the “largest and longest-running money laundering services.” According to prosecutors, the service was used to launder over $400 million in criminal proceeds since being created in 2011. The case was one that challenged the idea that cryptocurrencies, because they are not fiat currency, can operate outside of normal legal frameworks. As blockchain analysis and crypto payment tracing techniques have matured and become central to criminal investigations, it was a matter of time before the services key to scrambling the origins of money would come under scrutiny themselves. Besides money laundering, mixers can be charged with running unlicensed money transmitting businesses. Basically, allowing people to send and receive money without checking their identities.In layman’s terms, cryptocurrency mixers are big pools where crypto users deposit their tokens, after which the cryptocurrency gets shuffled, then redistributed back to users equal to the original amount they put in, minus a service fee taken by the mixer. The idea is to prevent forensic accountants from following that money’s trail, though proponents of the services say they just help individuals maintain their privacy.As part of sentencing, Sterlingov, 36, was ordered to forfeit his interest in a Bitcoin Fog wallet with containing Bitcoin valued at more than $103 million. Sterlingov has said that his crypto holdings came not from Bitcoin Fog but from early investment in cryptocurrencies. He did concede that he used the service as a user seeking privacy, and suggested those transactions led prosecutors to wrongly tie him to the service’s operations.Sterlingov maintained throughout trial that he never operated Bitcoin Fog. After sentencing, however, Sterlingov expressed remorse. “I am sorry for any harm that may have come from my actions,” he told the judge. “I’m fully committed to becoming a better person.”The government tied Sterlingov to the service by showing a trail of financial transactions from 2011 linking him to payments made to register the Bitcoinfog.com domain. Bitcoin Fog operated on the dark web, but Bitcoinfog.com advertised how to find the site. Sterlingov said in court that he worked in 2011 as a web designer for a Swedish marketing company, implying he might have made the site for a client. But he also said he couldn’t remember for sure as it was so long ago.WIRED back in 2022 explained more of the government’s evidence:The funds to pay for that domain traveled through several accounts and were eventually exchanged from Bitcoin for the now-defunct digital currency Liberty Reserve, according to prosecutors. But the IRS says IP addresses, blockchain data, and phone numbers linked with the various accounts all connect the payments to Sterlingov. A Russian-language document in Sterlingov’s Google Account also described a method for obfuscating payments similar to the one he’s accused of using for that domain registration.Prosecutors concluded, and the jury agreed, that despite a lack of service logs or other evidence linking Sterlingov to the operations of Bitcoin Fog, the overwhelming evidence supported it beyond a reasonable doubt. The defendant’s statements can’t “be reconciled with the jury’s verdict,” prosecutors wrote in their sentencing memo.The co-founder of another crypto mixer, Tornado Cash, was sentenced in May to 64 months in prison after being found guilty by a Dutch court of laundering over $1.2 billion.
Investors who suffered losses in SW Kansas bank-closing cryptocurrency scam awarded restitution - Millions of dollars seized by the government as the result of a $47.1 million cryptocurrency scheme will be divided among investors who suffered financial losses. A federal judge ordered the restitution on Monday in the case of a scheme that caused a Kansas bank to fail. In August 2024, Shan Hanes, 53, of Elkhart was sentenced to 293 months in prison after pleading guilty to one count of embezzlement by a bank officer. In the video above, you can see coverage that followed Hanes’ sentencing. While the chief executive officer (CEO) of Heartland Tri-State Bank (HTSB), Hanes initiated outgoing wire transfers of bank funds to a cryptocurrency wallet belonging to third parties. This caused Heartland to collapse, and the bank investors to lose approximately $9 million. The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) recovered $8 million in funds associated with the fraud. “The U.S. Attorney’s Office – District of Kansas thanks the FBI for its diligent investigations that led to the discovery and recovery of over $8 million in stolen funds. Through Hanes’ conviction and prison sentence, the Department of Justice obtained justice for the victims, and now with this court order, those victims will receive some financial relief,” said U.S. Attorney Kate E. Brubacher. The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation – Office of Inspector General (FDIC-OIG), Federal Reserve Board - Office of Inspector General (FRB-OIG), and Federal Housing Finance Agency – Office of Inspector General ((FHFA-OIG) investigated the case. Assistant U.S. Attorney Aaron Smith prosecuted the case.
Buffett T-bills & Chills: Piled up T-bills, Ditched Stocks, Bonds, and Share Buybacks in Q3 By Wolf Richter - Cash is king for Warren Buffett. His investment vehicle, Berkshire Hathaway, continued to dump its two biggest stock holdings in Q3, Apple and Bank of America. It was a net-seller of stocks for the eighth quarter in a row, selling $36.1 billion of stocks, and buying only $1.5 billion, for net sales of $34.5 billion. It didn’t buy back any of its own shares. And it further increased its already huge pile of cash, particularly its Treasury bills, according to Berkshire’s Q3 earnings report released on Saturday. In the quarter through September 30, Berkshire Hathaway piled on an additional $48 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and Treasury bills, bringing the total cash pile to $325 billion, nearly double where it had been a year ago. The increase was all in T-bills (+$53 billion); its cash and cash equivalents declined (-$5 billion). Total cash holdings, including T-bills, jumped by $48 billion in Q3:
- Q3 2024: $325 billion
- Q2 2024: $277 billion
- Q1 2024: $189 billion
- Q4 2023: $167 billion
- Q3 2023: $157 billion
- Q1 2022: $106 billion, when interest rates on cash began to rise.
The pile of T-bills jumped by $53 billion, to $288 billion in Q3.. Buffett piled on T-bills even as T-bill yields declined throughout the quarter. The 6-month T-bill yield fell by 90 basis points during Q3, from 5.3% to 4.4%. The 1-year yield fell by 110 basis points, from 5.1% to 4.0%. And yet, T-bill and chill. If Berkshire earned an average of 4.8% on its T-bills in Q3, interest income from those T-bills would amount to $3 billion in the quarter, with zero credit risk and very high liquidity. To put this $3 billion of interest income into perspective: That’s 50% more than Berkshire’s underwriting income from GEICO in Q3 ($2.0 billion) and 67% more than its operating income from its railroad BNSF ($1.8 billion). This T-bill interest would amount to about 30% of Berkshire’s total operating profit (excluding capital gains) of $10.1 billion generated by the conglomerate’s insurance, freight rail, utilities & energy, manufacturing, service, and retailing businesses. T-bill and chill has worked for Buffett. More strategically, he now sits on this huge pile of dry powder to be deployed if and when the big S hits the fan, after which point there would be finally some stocks out there worth buying. Ditching Stocks. Berkshire dumped on net $34.6 billion of stocks in Q3, after dumping $75 billion of stocks in Q2. Its Apple holdings were whittled down by another 25%; it dumped about 100 million shares in Q3, after having dumped 390 million shares in Q2. So far in 2024, Berkshire has dumped over 600 million of its Apple shares. Its holdings are down to about 300 million shares, from 908 million shares two years ago. That remaining stake was worth $69.9 billion at the end of Q3. Apple has been hugely profitable for Berkshire. It first disclosed purchasing Apple in 2016 when the stock was in the $26-range. At the end of Q3, the stock was at $233 a share. On Friday, it closed at $222.91. The media hype-and-hoopla that ensued when Buffett started buying Apple, and that re-ensued each time he disclosed more Apple purchases, was in part responsible for driving up the shares. Well done! Its Bank of America holdings were also whittled down further in Q3, to about 794 million shares, from 1.03 billion shares at the peak, shaving his stake down from 13.2% to 10.2%, according to separate SEC filings. That remaining stake was worth $31.7 billion, according to the Q3 earnings report.
Judy Dimon, wife of JPMorgan CEO, knocks on doors for Kamala Harris -Judy Dimon, the prominent political donor and wife of JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s top executive, canvassed voters in Michigan over the weekend in support of Kamala Harris' presidential bid. Judy Dimon is a longtime donor to Democratic candidates and an education advocate who has been public in her support for Vice President Kamala Harris
What's at stake for bankers in the 2024 election - As voters head to the polls on Election Day, a number of issues that matter to bankers — including Federal Reserve policy, inflation and regulation — are indirectly on the ballot. Analysts are watching both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump for potential regulatory picks, as well as how strongly Trump advocates for policies like tariffs and deportations that could impact the economy, inflation and bankers' prospects.
BankThink: No matter who wins the election, uncertainty looms for banks -- As voters head to the polls on Election Day, a number of issues that matter to bankers — including Federal Reserve policy, inflation and regulation — are indirectly on the ballot. Banks have favored the low-regulation vision of former President Donald Trump in the 2024 election, but his victory could imperil institutions and norms that banks rely on. Vice President Kamala Harris is more likely to preserve the status quo — including the Biden regulatory agenda.
Trump wins presidency, ushering an era of less regulation for banks - Donald Trump was elected the president of the United States. The Associated Press called the race at 6:15 a.m. on Monday. Former President Donald Trump rode waves of voter discontent over inflation to win key swing states that he lost in 2020 and reach the necessary 270 votes. He told supporters Wednesday morning that he's been given "an unprecedented and powerful mandate."
Bank stock prices soar on hopes that Trump will ease regulation -- Bank stocks surged Wednesday morning after former President Donald Trump won his bid to return to the White House, which seems likely to bring laxer regulation to the industry. An index of bank stocks rose 8.5% early Wednesday after Donald Trump won his bid to return to the White House.
Another banking progressive could replace Katie Porter in House -- Rep. Katie Porter, D-Calif., who's been a thorn in the side of banks since she took office in 2019, is not running for reelection after mounting an unsuccessful campaign for the U.S. Senate earlier this year. California's 47th Congressional district, which is being vacated by Rep. Katie Porter, D-Calif., after her unsuccessful bid for California's senate seat, is being sought by law professor and Democrat David Min, who has been an outspoken progressive on banking issues. Running against him is Republican Scott Baugh, who ran unsuccessfully against Porter in 2022.
Trump win likely to delay Basel III, imperil Biden bank regulation -- The incoming Trump administration is likely to lead to swift turnover at bank regulatory agencies, which would push finalization of new capital standards for large banks further down the road. Experts anticipate that Trump's victory and expected shifts in regulatory leadership will delay finalizing Biden-era capital rules for large banks, with new officials likely favoring a less stringent Basel III framework and softer capital requirements.
Judge approves TD Bank plea deal, including five years of probation — A federal judge on Thursday accepted the terms of a plea agreement between federal prosecutors and TD Bank after an investigation found money laundering and violations of the Bank Secrecy Act. The plea agreement, which includes a fine of more than $1.4 billion, penalizes TD for systemic money laundering violations. "We have the ability to profit, and we should be able to profit, but not at the expense of the law," said U.S. District Judge Esther Salas.
Are big bank deals back? What Trump could mean for M&A Bankers are hopeful that President-elect Donald Trump's return to office will bring a friendlier environment for mergers, reversing the dealmaking doldrums of recent years. During Donald Trump's last presidency, the massive merger that created Truist shook up the industry. What's coming this time around?
Ex-TD Bank employee in AML unit charged with check fraud-related felony - TD Bank was already in hot water for its anti-money-laundering failures. Now a former employee in the bank's AML department is facing a felony charge in connection with a separate alleged criminal scheme. Daria Sewell pleaded not guilty to possessing customers' personally identifiable information. The case adds to the Canadian bank's anti-money-laundering woes.
BankThink Why do US banks persist in breaching AML regulations? | American Banker -- A detailed analysis of the reasons for the $3 billion civil monetary penalty levied against TD Bank for money laundering — the largest in the U.S. Treasury's history — as well as theregulator's charges against Wells Fargo in September, reveals unexpected facts. The real effectiveness of anti-money-laundering, or AML, programs does not directly depend on the size of the compliance department and its IT budget. This prompts us to investigate potential inefficiencies in the way different elements of banks' AML control systems interact. An uptick in fines associated with anti-money-laundering failures demonstrates that U.S. banks still have much work to do in terms of optimizing their internal systems to identify and stop the flow of dirty money.
Banks' gripes with big credit unions are gaining momentum — Consumer advocates and banks often disagree on financial regulation, but both groups and their allies in recent months have renewed calls for federal policymakers to apply greater scrutiny towards credit unions, especially as the tax-exempt firms continue to buy banks. Consumer groups and banks are pushing for increased regulation on credit unions, aligning on concerns over tax exemptions, consumer protection standards, and the rising trend of credit union acquisitions of community banks. Rep. Claudia Tenney, R-N.Y., last week called for a Congressional hearing on credit unions' favorable tax and regulatory treatment compared with that of banks.
CFPB sanctions Navy Federal for improper overdraft fees - The Consumer Finance Protection Bureau levied its largest-ever fine on a credit union Thursday, sanctioning Navy Federal in Vienna, Virginia, for what it termed "illegal surprise" overdraft fees. The Vienna, Virginia-based credit union will pay tens of millions of dollars in penalties over what the agency said was "junk fees" charged to Navy Federal's customers.
Financial Technology Association challenges CFPB's BNPL rule -- The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has been issuing a barrage of rules and enforcement actions ahead of next year's change in the White House, including an interpretive rule on buy now/pay later products. It will soon have to defend that rule — and others — in court. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau will soon have to defend its interpretive buy now/pay later rule in court following an industry advocacy group lawsuit. Here's what's at stake.
Trump will change the CFPB's course — but how much is unclear = With President-elect Donald Trump's victory in Tuesday's election, expectations are rising that the next administration will make dramatic changes at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, an agency that has vexed industry since Director Rohit Chopra took office in 2021. President Trump initiated changes at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau in his first term, and the industry's frustration with the bureau has grown since he left office. But how far a second Trump administration can or will go depends on factors outside the president's control.
Office CMBS Delinquency Rate Spikes to 9.4%, Highest Since Worst Months after the Financial Crisis – Wolf Richter - The office sector of commercial real estate has been in a depression for about two years, with prices of older office towers plunging by 50%, 60%, or 70% from their last transaction, and sometimes even more, with some office towers selling for land value, with the building by itself being worth next to nothing even in Manhattan.Landlords of office buildings are having trouble collecting enough in rent to even pay the interest on their loans, and they’re having trouble or are finding it impossible to refinance a maturing loan, and so many of them have stopped making interest payments on their mortgages, and delinquencies continue to spike.The delinquency rate of office mortgages backing commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) spiked to 9.4% in October, up a full percentage point from September, and the highest since the worst months of the meltdown that followed the Financial Crisis. The delinquency rate has doubled since June 2023 (4.5%), according to data by Trepp, which tracks and analyzes CMBS. Office CRE fund managers have spread the rumor that office CRE has bottomed out, but the CMBS delinquency rate doesn’t agree with this bottomed-out scenario; it’s aggressively spiking. Three months ago, the delinquency rate surpassed the surge in delinquencies that followed the American Oil Bust from 2014 through 2016, when hundreds of companies in the US oil-and-gas sector filed for bankruptcy as the price of oil had collapsed due to overproduction, which devastated the Houston office market in 2016. But now there’s a structural problem that won’t easily go away with the price of oil: A huge office glut has emerged after years of overbuilding and industry hype about the “office shortage” that led big companies to hog office space as soon as it came on the market with the hope they’d grow into it. However, during the pandemic, companies realized that they don’t need all this office space, and vast portions of it sits there vacant and for lease, with vacancy rates in the 25% to 36% range in the biggest markets. Mortgages are considered delinquent by Trepp when the borrower fails to make the interest payment after the 30-day grace period. A mortgage is not considered delinquent here if the borrower continues to make the interest payment but fails to pay off the mortgage when it matures. This kind of repayment default, while the borrower is current on interest, would be on top of the delinquency rate here. Loans are pulled off the delinquency list if the interest gets paid, or if the loan is resolved through a foreclosure sale, generally involving big losses for the CMBS holders, or if a deal gets worked out between landlord and the special servicer that represents the CMBS holders, such as the mortgage being restructured or modified and extended.Survive till 2025 has been the motto. But that might not work either. The Fed has cut its policy rate by 50 basis points in September and is likely to cut more but in smaller increments. Many CRE loans are floating-rate loans that adjust to a short-term rate (SOFR), and short-term rates move largely with the Fed’s policy rates. And floating-rate loans will have lower interest rates as the Fed cuts.Long-term rates, including fixed-rate mortgage rates have risen sharply since the Fed started cutting rates, so that option isn’t appealing.So the hope in the CRE industry is that rate cuts will be steep and many, thereby reducing floating-rate interest payments, making it easier for landlords to meet them. And so the prescription was: Survive till 2025, when interest rates would be, they hope, far lower than they were.But rate cuts will do nothing to address the structural issues that office CRE faces. The landlord of a nearly empty older office tower isn’t going to be able to make the interest payment even at a lower rate when the tower is largely vacant.And these older office towers face the brunt of the vacancy rates, amid a flight to quality now feasible because of vacancies even at the latest and greatest properties. And there are a lot of these older office towers around that have been refinanced at very high valuations in the years before the pandemic, but whose valuations have now plunged by 50%, 60%, or 70%, and they have become a nightmare for lenders and CMBS holders.
BankThink CFPB and DOJ have badly overreached in the Fairway redlining case - American Banker = My career has been dedicated to the fight for civil rights for all. I headed the housing section of the Civil Rights Division of the U.S. Department of Justice. The division filed a record number of housing and lending discrimination cases during my tenure, including the initial claims ofredlining. In private practice, I have continued to counsel lenders on proper approaches to compliance and defend those who are challenged unjustly. I am proud of my work in fighting the good fight. Therefore, it pains me greatly to say it, but I believe that the federal government's enforcement of anti-housing discrimination laws has gone awry. It is nonsensical for the government to sue one of the leading lenders in an underserved minority community as a means of encouraging more lending in that community.
Mortgage Delinquencies Decrease Slightly in the Third Quarter of 2024, Up on Annual Basis - From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decrease Slightly in the Third Quarter of 2024, Up on Annual Basis The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased slightly to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.92 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the third quarter of 2024 compared to one year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey.The delinquency rate was down 5 basis points from the second quarter of 2024 but up 30 basis points from one year ago. The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started in the third quarter rose by 1 basis point to 0.14 percent.“Mortgage delinquencies have inched up over the past year,” . “Even though there was a small, third-quarter decline in the overall delinquency rate compared to the previous quarter, this was driven by a decrease in 30-day delinquencies. Later-stage delinquencies rose last quarter, and overall delinquencies were up thirty basis points from one year ago.” “While delinquencies remain low by historical standards, the composition of loans in delinquency is changing, with more 60-day delinquencies and 90-day+ delinquencies across all major loan types, compared to last quarter and one year ago.”Walsh further noted that the effects of Hurricanes Helene and Milton will likely appear in the next reporting period of the National Delinquency Survey, given the timing of the storms at the end of September and beginning of October. The following graph shows the percent of loans delinquent by days past due. Overall delinquencies increased in Q2. The sharp increase in 2020 in the 90-day bucket was due to loans in forbearance (included as delinquent, but not reported to the credit bureaus). The percent of loans in the foreclosure process decreased year-over-year from 0.49 percent in Q3 2023 to 0.45 percent in Q3 2024 (red) and remains historically low. Key findings of MBA's Third Quarter of 2024 National Delinquency Survey:
- Compared to last quarter, the seasonally adjusted mortgage delinquency rate decreased for all loans outstanding. By stage, the 30-day delinquency rate decreased 14 basis points to 2.12 percent, the 60-day delinquency rate increased 3 basis points to 0.73 percent, and the 90-day delinquency bucket increased 7 basis points to 1.08 percent.
- By loan type over the previous quarter, the total delinquency rate for conventional loans decreased 1 basis point to 2.63 percent. The FHA delinquency rate decreased 14 basis points to 10.46 percent, and the VA delinquency rate decreased 5 basis points to 4.58 percent.
- On a year-over-year basis, total mortgage delinquencies increased for all loans outstanding. The delinquency rate increased 13 basis points for conventional loans, increased 96 basis points for FHA loans and, increased 82 basis points for VA loans from the previous year.
- The delinquency rate includes loans that are at least one payment past due but does not include loans in the process of foreclosure. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the third quarter was 0.45 percent, up 2 basis points from the second quarter of 2024 and 4 basis points lower than one year ago.
- The non-seasonally adjusted seriously delinquent rate, the percentage of loans that are 90 days or more past due or in the process of foreclosure, was 1.55 percent. It increased 12 basis points from last quarter and increased 3 basis points from last year. The seriously delinquent rate increased 5 basis points for conventional loans, increased 46 basis points for FHA loans, and increased 19 basis points for VA loans from the previous quarter. Compared to a year ago, the seriously delinquent rate decreased 3 basis points for conventional loans, increased 29 basis points for FHA loans and, increased 27 basis points for VA loans.
- The five states with the largest quarterly increases in their overall delinquency rate were: Texas (24 basis points), Arkansas (14 basis points), Florida (13 basis points), Arizona (12 basis points), and Wyoming (9 basis points).
- For the purposes of the survey, MBA asks servicers to report loans in forbearance as delinquent if the payment was not made based on the original terms of the mortgage.
The primary concern is the increase in 30- and 60-day delinquency rates, and even though the rate is historically low, it has increased from 2.30% in Q2 2023 to 2.85% in Q3 2024 (the rate declined in Q3). I don’t think this increase is much of a worry, but it is something to watch. We will see an increase in 30-day delinquencies in Q4 due to the hurricanes.
ICE Mortgage Monitor: "Annual home price growth cooled for the seventh consecutive month" Press Release: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Record Levels of Tappable Equity, Fed Rate Cuts Could Spur Resurgence in Home Equity Withdrawals
- As of the end of Q3 2024, U.S. mortgage holders held $17.2T in equity, of which $11.2T is ‘tappable,’ meaning it can be borrowed against with the homeowner maintaining a 20% equity stake in their home
- The average homeowner with a mortgage now has $319K of equity in their home, of which $207K is tappable
- Though Q3 withdrawals hit a two-year high – both collectively and individually among second lien products ($27B) and cash-out refinances ($21B) – the total represented just 0.42% of available tappable equity
- Borrowers have been withdrawing equity at less than half the 10-year average 0.92% extraction rate, with second lien products 26% below typical levels and cash-outs 69% below the norm
- The past 10 quarters have seen half the equity extraction to be expected in a ‘normal’ market, meaning $476B has gone untapped and not flowed back through the broader economy
- In recent quarters, introductory rates on HELOCs have topped 9.5%, more than doubling the $167 March 2022 monthly interest-only payment needed for a $50K withdrawal to a high of $413 in January 2024
- Recent Federal Reserve cuts to short-term interest rates – more directly tied to HELOC than 30-year mortgage offerings – have already made equity withdrawals modestly more affordable and attractive
- If both market expectations for an additional ~1.5 pp in additional Fed cuts and current spreads hold true, we could see HELOC rate offerings in the low 7% range by the end of 2025
- That would drop the monthly payment needed to withdraw $50K in equity back down below $300; still notably higher than the historical average, but more than 25% below recent high
Here is a graph on delinquencies from ICE. Overall delinquencies increased in September but are below the pre-pandemic levels. Source: ICE McDash
- • The national delinquency rate rose 14 basis points (bps) to 3.48% in September, up 4.3% for the month and 5.7% year over year ‒ the fourth consecutive monthly increase
- • Serious delinquencies (loans 90+ days past due but not in active foreclosure) rose 26K (+5.9%) to their highest level since May 2023, up +4.6% year over year
- • The number of borrowers a single payment past due climbed 42K to a three-month high, while 60-day delinquencies rose by 12K to their highest level since January 2021
- • Inflows of newly past-due loans and rolls to later stages of delinquency increased across the board, as cures fell by 11% overall with declines in both early- and late-stage cures
One of the key metrics to watch for mortgage stress is early-stage delinquencies. These are borrowers that are delinquent within 6 months of origination. This was one of the obvious warning signs during the housing bubble.There has been a steady increase in early-stage delinquencies for VA loans.
- • Early-stage delinquencies – borrowers already past due six months after origination – have been gradually rising as well, most notably among VA originations
- • Overall, 1.7% of 2024 vintage originations have been delinquent six months after origination, the highest share for any vintage since 2008 – outside of pandemic-era payment shocks
Note that national mortgage performance is being impacted by the hurricanes.
- • Along with credit related drivers, physical damages and financial fallout from recent hurricanes are also impacting homeowners’ ability to make their housing payments
- • 4.9 million mortgage holders, carrying a combined $1 trillion in unpaid principal balances (UPB) on their homes, were either in the path of hurricanes Helene and Milton or in areas that sustained flooding in their wake, with an unlucky 429K finding themselves in the path of both storms
- • Very early impacts from Hurricane Helene can already be seen in September mortgage performance, with an estimated 3.5K mortgage holders already past due as a result of the storm
- • The heaviest impacts are likely to manifest in borrowers’ ability to make October and November payments, given that the storms made landfall in late September
There is much more in the mortgage monitor
Mortgage rates surge on Trump victory, causing housing stocks to fall - President-elect Donald Trump's victory spurred a rise in in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield. Mortgage rates, which loosely follow the benchmark yield, are also climbing. The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage surged 9 basis points Wednesday to 7.13%, according to Mortgage News Daily. That is the highest rate since July 1 of this year, though not quite the surge some had expected. "The expectation among bond traders coming into the election was that rates would move higher in the event of a Trump victory and especially a red sweep. While the latter is not yet clear, the former is enough for another bump to rates that have already risen abruptly with Trump's victory odds," said Matthew Graham, chief operating officer at Mortgage News Daily. Housing stocks reacted in turn, with both the big public builders and building material companies falling sharply. Lennar, D.R. Horton and PulteGroup were all down more than 4% in midday trading Wednesday. Retailers Home Depot and Lowe's also fell, more than 3% apiece. "The builder stocks are highly sensitive to mortgage rates and mortgage rate expectations. Inflation expectations are higher now, which impacts long-term rates," said John Burns, CEO of John Burns Real Estate Consulting. While Trump did not lay out a detailed housing plan, he did talk about deregulation and opening federal land for more home construction. The National Association of Home Builders congratulated the president-elect with a statement from its chairman, Carl Harris, saying, "NAHB looks forward to working with the incoming Trump administration and leaders in Congress from both parties to enact a pro-housing legislative and regulatory agenda that increases the nation's housing supply and eases the nation's affordability woes." Big builders have been buying down mortgage rates for their customers, but that has been cutting into their margins. Mortgage rates hit a recent low of 6.11% on Sept. 11, but have been rising steadily since, despite the recent rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Mortgage rates don't follow the Fed, but do react to the central bank's thinking on the economy. Stronger-than-expected economic reports in September and October caused bond yields, and consequently mortgage rates, to move higher. To put it in perspective for consumers, a homebuyer purchasing a $400,000 home with a 20% down payment on a 30-year fixed mortgage, would have had a monthly payment of $1,941 in early September. Today that payment would be $2,157, a difference of $216. Sales of existing homes have seen an unusual surge this fall. Pending sales, which represent signed contracts, rose 7% in September compared with August, according to the National Association of Realtors. That was before rates surged significantly higher. The sales increase is largely due to more supply. There were 29.2% more homes actively for sale in October compared with October 2023, reaching the highest level of active inventory since December 2019, according to Realtor.com. "The path ahead is anyone's guess and will ultimately be determined by inflation, the economy, and Treasury issuance," Graham added.
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey --From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly SurveyMortgage applications decreased 10.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending November 1, 2024.The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 10.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 12 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 19 percent from the previous week and was 48 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent compared with the previous week and was 2 percent higher than the same week one year ago.“Ten-year Treasury rates remain volatile and continue to put upward pressure on mortgage rates. The 30- year fixed rate last week increased to 6.81 percent, the highest level since July,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Applications decreased for the sixth consecutive week, with purchase activity falling to its lowest level since mid-August and refinance activity declining to the lowest level since May. The average loan size on a refinance application dropped below $300,000, as borrowers with larger loans tend to be more sensitive to any given changes in mortgage rates.” ...The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) increased to 6.81 percent from 6.73 percent, with points decreasing to 0.68 from 0.69 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 2% year-over-year unadjusted. Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly). Purchase application activity is up about 4% from the lows in late October 2023, but still about 13% below the lowest levels during the housing bust. The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index increased significantly as mortgage rates declined September but decreased over the last six weeks as rates moved back up.
CoreLogic: US Home Prices Increased 3.4% Year-over-year in September, "Slowest growth rate in over a year" - This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for September. The CoreLogic HPI is a three-month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). From CoreLogic: CoreLogic: Annual Home Price Slowdown Continues in September.
• On an annual basis, home prices rose by 3.4% in September, the slowest growth rate in over a year, and are projected to slow to 2.3% by the same time next year.
• Miami continued to post the highest gain of tracked U.S. metro areas, at 6.8%, followed closely by Chicago at 6.7%.
• Rhode Island reported the highest annual growth rate of all states at 9%.
• Twenty-seven states reached new home price highs in September.
U.S. home price growth continued to cool, slowing to a 3.4% year-over-year in September. Compared to with the month prior, home prices rebounded to post a very slight uptick (0.02%) following months of modest monthly declines. Taken together, home price levels have been relatively flat since late summer. Besides the uncertainty regarding the U.S. election and mortgage rate volatility, the mixed signals around the current state of the U.S. economy may be dampening demand and price appreciation. According to the latest numbers from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the economy added just 12,000 jobs in October 2024, the fewest in almost four years. On the other hand, the most recent consumer spending data showed solid continued spending and an upbeat consumer outlook. “Like much of the housing market at the moment, home prices remained relatively flat coming into the fall,” said “Despite some improved affordability from lower mortgage rates during August, homebuyers mostly kept on the sidelines and decided to wait out the mortgage rate drop for a potentially better opportunity next year, when the current volatility, uncertainty surrounding the election’s outcome, and the impact on longer-term rates may be slightly clearer. And while the mortgage rate and economic outlook is full of questions, home prices are likely to maintain their leveled path until early next year when buyers return to the housing market.” This was a smaller YoY increase than reported for August, and down from the 5.8% YoY increase reported at the beginning of 2024. This map is from the report. Nationally, home prices increased by 3.4% year over year in September. One state posted an annual home price decline. The states with the highest increases year over year were Rhode Island (9%) and New Jersey (up by 8.6%).Hawaii was the only state to record a year-over-year home price loss (-0.4%).
Housing Nov 4th Weekly Update: Inventory Unchanged Week-over-week, Up 29.8% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was unchanged week-over-week.The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 29.8% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 30.8%), and down 19.4% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 20.7%). Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is more than half closed. This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of Nov 1st, inventory was at 736 thousand (7-day average), compared to 736 thousand the prior week. Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.
Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year --Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt: Another monthly update on rents.Tracking rents is important for understanding the dynamics of the housing market. Slower household formation and increased supply (more multi-family completions) has kept asking rents under pressure. ... National Rent Report.The national median rent dipped by 0.7% in October, as we get further into the slow season for the rental market. The median monthly rent nationally fell by $10, putting it at $1,394, and we’re likely to see that number continue to dip modestly through the remainder of the year. ...Realtor.com: 14th Consecutive Month with Year-over-year Decline in Rents In September 2024, the U.S. median rent continued to decline year-over-year for the fourteenth month in a row, down $8 or -0.5% year-over-year for 0-2 bedroom properties across the top 50 metros, faster than the rate of -0.3% seen in August 2024.
In Q2, almost 20% of Units Started Built-for-Rent were Single Family -Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: In Q2, almost 20% of Units Started Built-for-Rent were Single Family Brief excerpt: Along with the monthly housing starts report for September released last month, the Census Bureau also released Housing Units Started by Purpose and Design through Q2 2024. The first graph shows the number of single family and multi-family units started with the intent to rent. This data is quarterly and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA). Although the majority of units built-for-rent’ are still multi-family (blue), there has been a significant pickup in single family units started built-for-rent (red). In 2020, there were 44,000 single family units started with the intent to rent. In 2023, that number almost doubled to 77,000 units. There were 23,000 single family units started in Q2 2024 built-for-rent, up from 21,000 in Q2 2023. For multi-family, there were 83,000 units started to rent in Q2 2024, down almost 40% from 136,000 in Q2 2023. A total of 106,000 units were started built-for-rent in Q2, with 19% single family units.
Trade Deficit Increased to $84.4 Billion in September - The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $84.4 billion in September, up $13.6 billion from $70.8 billion in August, revised.September exports were $267.9 billion, $3.2 billion less than August exports. September imports were $352.3 billion, $10.3 billion more than August imports. Exports decreased and imports increased in September. Exports are up 2.4% year-over-year; imports are up 8.8% year-over-year. Both imports and exports decreased sharply due to COVID-19 and then bounced back - imports and exports have generally increased recently. The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.Note that net, exports of petroleum products are positive and have been increasing. The trade deficit with China increased to $31.8 billion from $28.4 billion a year ago. It is possible some importers are trying to beat potential tariffs.
ISM® Services Index Increases to 56.0% in October The ISM® Services index was at 56.0%, up from 54.9% last month. The employment index increased to 53.0%, from 48.1%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI® at 56% October 2024 Services ISM® Report On Business® The Services PMI® registered 56 percent, which is the highest reading since July 2022 and indicates sector expansion for the 50th time in 53 months. “In October, the Services PMI® registered 56 percent, 1.1 percentage points higher than September’s figure of 54.9 percent. The reading in October marked the eighth time the composite index has been in expansion territory this year. The Business Activity Index registered 57.2 percent in October, 2.7 percentage points lower than the 59.9 percent recorded in September, indicating a fourth month of expansion after a contraction in June. The New Orders Index decreased to 57.4 percent in October, 2 percentage points lower than September’s figure of 59.4 percent. The Employment Index landed in expansion territory for its third time in four months; the reading of 53 percent is a 4.9-percentage point increase compared to the 48.1 percent recorded in September. The PMI was well above expectations.
Boeing machinists end strike after approving labor contract with 38% raisesBoeing machinists approved a new labor deal Monday, ending a costly seven-week strike that halted most of the company's aircraft production, worsening its mounting losses. Machinists voted 59% in favor of the new contract, which includes 38% wage increases over four years and other improvements. The approval is a relief for Boeing's new CEO, Kelly Ortberg, who took the top job in August to steer the company through its safety and manufacturing crises. The company raised more than $20 billion in a share sale last week to weather its financial problems after warning it will likely burn cash through 2025.Ortberg last month said Boeing will cut 10% of its 170,000 workforce including mangers, executives and employees, to slash costs, with layoff notices going out in mid-November. He painted a picture of a leaner Boeing, focusing on its core commercial and defense businesses."While the past few months have been difficult for all of us, we are all part of the same team. We will only move forward by listening and working together," Ortberg said after the contract passed. "There is much work ahead to return to the excellence that made Boeing an iconic company."Boeing will now be able to resume production, key to its recovery since the bulk of the aircraft price is paid when they are handed over to customers. But getting up to target production rates, particularly for the 737 Max, Boeing's cash cow, will take time."While the strike ending and workers returning to the shopfloor is a meaningful step in the right direction, ramping back up will take time," said Bank of America aerospace analyst Ron Epstein. He said some workers will need to be retrained.The machinists, who build planes such as the bestselling 737 Max, the 777 and 767 aircraft must return to their jobs no later than Nov. 12 the union said. They could return as early as Wednesday."Yesterday's resolution of the strike was low hanging fruit in our view," Jonathan Root, senior vice president at Moody's Ratings, said in a note Tuesday. "Relieving the impediments to achieving and then sustaining strong positive free cash flow remains the challenge."
Stellantis to indefinitely lay off 1,100 workers at Jeep plant in Ohio — Automaker Stellantis announced plans Wednesday to cut a manufacturing shift and indefinitely lay off roughly 1,100 workers at a Jeep plant in Ohio. The company, which has been battling high inventory levels andlower earnings this year, said the decision at its Toledo South Assembly Plant to cut production to one shift will better align output with demand of the Jeep Gladiator pickup — the factory's sole product."As Stellantis navigates a transitional year, the focus is on realigning its U.S. operations to ensure a strong start to 2025, which includes taking the difficult but necessary action to reduce high inventory levels by managing production to meet sales," Stellantis said in an emailed statement.The layoffs will be effective as early as Jan. 5, according to Stellantis. The automaker announced the layoffs in conjunction with required notices to government agencies under the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act.The United Auto Workers union, which represents Stellantis employees at the plant, did not immediately respond for comment.In accordance with the company's 2023 contract with the UAW, Stellantis said it will provide laid off employees with one year of supplemental unemployment benefits in combination with any eligible state unemployment benefits, equalling 74% of their pay, followed by one year of transition assistance. Health-care coverage also will continue for two years. Stellantis, including its Jeep brand, is attempting to execute a turnaround plan following a yearslong decline in U.S. sales. Jeep, a coveted brand in the automotive industry, has been in a U.S. sales rut that has included five years of annual sales declines, with 2024 on pace to potentially become the sixth.The plan has included lowering pricing across its lineup, including on high-volume models such as the Jeep Compass and Grand Cherokee SUVs; rolling out special offers such as incentives or 0% financing; and increasing spending on marketing and advertising. Jeep's U.S. sales have plummeted 34% from an all-time high of more than 973,000 SUVs sold in 2018 to less than 643,000 units last year. While most auto brands increased sales last year, Jeep was off by about 6%.
Florida's abortion rights amendment fails to pass -Florida’s abortion-rights ballot initiative fell short of passing on Tuesday, leaving in place a six-week abortion ban that has helped restrict access across almost all of the Southern U.S. The measure’s defeat is a significant victory for Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), who engaged multiple levers of state-sponsored power to oppose it. Florida is now the first state to defeat an abortion rights amendment since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022. The measure needed a 60 percent supermajority to pass, the highest threshold in the country. No abortion measure to date has passed with 60 percent of the vote. Florida was one of 10 states voting on abortion-related ballot measures Tuesday. All the others needed a simple majority to pass. The state previously had a 15-week ban, but the six-week ban took effect in May. Florida’s ban has effectively shut off abortion access in the South, where neighboring states already enforce near-total abortion bans or severe restrictions. Abortion-rights advocates were hoping to change that and spent nearly $100 million on the effort. The amendment would have enshrined protections for abortion up to the point of fetal viability (about 24 weeks) into the state constitution, preventing the state from passing laws to “prohibit, penalize, delay, or restrict abortion” until that point. Prior to this year, abortion ballot measures have won in every state that has voted on them since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022. But the DeSantis administration worked hard to overcome that trend. Earlier this year, the state attorney general tried to stop the measure from qualifying for the ballot. Florida requires ballot measures to undergo a review by the state Supreme Court, and Attorney General Ashley Moody (R) unsuccessfully argued the language was misleading. This summer, a Republican-controlled state panel added what supporters said was a misleading financial statement beneath the question, stating that the amendment could cost the state money because of lawsuits. In September, the state agency in charge of running Florida’s Medicaid program launched a website attacking the amendment. At least three public agencies have aired television and radio ads against the measure. The state Department of Health threatened local television stations that had run an ad supporting the amendment, and a state election police unit visited residents’ homes as part of a fraud investigation into the signature-gathering process months after the measure was certified with almost 1 million verified signatures. “Republicans, Democrats and Independents do not support these extreme bans on abortion. A bipartisan group of voters today sent a clear message to the Florida legislature,” Campaign Director for the official “Yes on 4” movement Lauren Brenzel said Tuesday night. “I look forward to legislators keeping their campaign word. We are mandating you to end Florida’s extreme abortion ban this legislative session.”
Milwaukee public education under attack, with 13 schools targeted for closure - In a further attack on public education, Milwaukee Public Schools (MPS) district in Wisconsin is considering closing 13 school buildings as part of its long-range facilities master plan. The 13 buildings are located in a three-mile square area of the poorest neighborhoods of the city, with six of the buildings in the single poorest ZIP code of the city. While avoiding any public comments on the school closing plan, the operation is largely being overseen by Democratic Mayor Cavalier Johnson and the Democratic-controlled Common Council. At a press conference in June, Johnson warned about “deep problems” in the state’s largest school district, saying they “require solutions and they require prompt solutions.” The mayor said he was not interested in taking over the school district and had confidence in the current school superintendent and board of education officials to address the financial crisis. The Democrats—who control the governorship and one of the two houses of the state legislature—have also reduced state aid to the Milwaukee schools by $81 million in 2024-25. In addition, the Biden-Harris administration has allowed federal COVID school funding to expire. Wisconsin received $2.4 billion in Elementary and Secondary School Emergency Relief, or ESSER, funding. The Milwaukee school district used three rounds of ESSER funding—totaling $786.42 million—to hire staff, purchase technology and textbooks and improve air quality in the classrooms. After the funding ended, the district laid off nearly 300 school workers. MPS’s announcement is part of a nationwide assault on public education. Most recently, Seattle Public Schools (SPS) declared it will close between 17 and 21 elementary schools next year, leading to hundreds of teachers and staff being laid off. In Chicago, more than 100 schools are on the chopping block. In an email sent by Chicago Teachers Union leaders to the entire union membership on September 13, they stated, “Over 100 schools are being analyzed for possible cuts, closures, or consolidations.” The leaders of the American Federation of Teachers, the National Education Association and their state and local affiliates, which are aligned with the Democratic Party, have been complicit in the school closures. Strikes, walkouts or protests have not been called, and the history of school closures—especially in Chicago, where the Democratic Party government implemented the closure of 50 schools following the CTU’s sellout of the 2012 teachers’ strike—serves as a sober lesson to educators everywhere. The fight against school closures must be taken up by educators forming rank-and-file committees to wage a struggle independently of the union bureaucracies. The district hired Perkins Eastman—an architectural, urban design, and strategic planning firm based in New York—to draw up its school closing and merger plan. Last week, the district held a “town hall” session at which both school officials and representatives from Perkins Eastman presided. The event was open to the public and attended by parents and teachers. The findings and recommendations of the firm were presented from a deck of 56 slides, which bore the logos of both MPS and Perkins Eastman. The firm used a “sorting tree” strategy to apply one of seven recommendations to each building. The “closure or merger” recommendation applied to buildings with a utilization rate of less than 50 percent, with a steady or declining enrollment, and that were within one mile of another building. Presumably, redirecting students to a nearby school with capacity could enable closure of a building and realizing any associated cost savings. One parent who attended the town hall session challenged the plan, declaring, “You’re saying, ‘merge a school, and give that one school more investment,’ versus putting investment in each and every school and community.” It is important to note that students in the school system are not geographically bound to a particular school. Parents are permitted to send their children to any school in the entire district.
Wartime economy vs. public education: Harris’ platform promotes the school-to-military industry pipeline - No matter which of the two big-business candidates for US president takes office, Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, the frontal assault on the social right to high-quality public education will escalate. Alongside the termination of thousands of jobs and the reorganization of US industries, including mass layoffs of auto, tech and logistics workers, the education system is being upended and thousands of school workers are losing their jobs. Schools are being put on rations in both “red” and “blue” states.The goals of education are themselves being degraded through this bipartisan policy. In numerous ways, young people are being discouraged from pursuing their interests and intellect, and instead being groomed to enter the workforce or military, and the sooner the better. Discipline and obedience are promoted, with growing numbers of police in the schools, endless shooting drills, cell phone bans, library and book bans. Military recruiters are being invited onto campuses and the ROTC (Reserve Officers’ Training Corps) is being promoted in middle and high schools. Brutality is becoming routine.For their part, Trump and the Republicans make no pretense of improving working class schools, instead pushing for a vast expansion of vouchers and other forms of taxpayer funding for private schools. Project 2025, written by Trump supporters and former aides, calls for an end to the US Department of Education and the transformation of Title I (federal assistance for public schools) and IDEA (Individuals with Disabilities Education Act) into block grants in order to cut their budgets. The fascist Republicans are using their “anti-DEI” campaigns to demonize educators and students, censor educational materials, and demand the promotion of religion, the military and patriotism in schools.The Democrats—also fully serving Wall Street—seek the same ends, just by slightly different means. Under the Democratic administration of Biden/Harris, COVID-19 ESSER (Elementary and Secondary School Emergency Relief) funds have been terminated, and districts across the country are shutting schools, ending tutoring, and laying off teachers, nurses, counselors and support staff. The job outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. puts 2024 cuts to education jobs at 25,396, up 222 percent from last year. This is just the beginning, with as many as 384,000 education jobs to be cut, according to industry consultant Chad Ferguson.These cuts are devastating districts from coast to coast. To give a sense of the widespread assault, one can point to over 100 schools at risk for closure or consolidation in Chicago, up to 13 schools to be closed or merged in Milwaukee, 14 schools slated for closure or consolidation as well as the closure of three alternative or special education programs in Pittsburgh, and more. This week, teachers in Ann Arbor, Michigan told the media that they face a possible doubling of their healthcare costs. Albany, Oregon teachers voted by 92 percent to strike in opposition to low pay, overcrowded classrooms and lack of resources for students. For decades, the Democrats have boasted of supporting “school reform” privatization schemes and, together with the Republicans, systematically cutting budgets. The priority of the Democratic Party is the corporate-financial oligarchy’s demand for expanding US wars of aggression. Discussion in ruling circles is that the US is heading for “total war,” requiring a “whole society” effort and a wartime economy.The ruling class sees funding for public education as an overall deduction from the surplus value created by the working class, and, as such, a diversion from profits. Any social resources that once went into schools and social programs are being diverted to war.The Biden/Harris administration has allocated over $1 trillion in the current budget for military spending, an all-time record. These vast sums are supplemented by many hundreds of millions of special appropriations to the fascist Netanyahu regime, which is carrying out genocide in Gaza and now raining down death on Lebanon. Hundreds of millions of dollars have been allocated for the proxy war in Ukraine being conducted by the US and NATO against nuclear-armed Russia.The demands of “total war” mean not just budget cuts, but also more munitions and more enlistments. To that end, millions in new dollars are being made available to promote technical training for semiconductor production and other necessary war-time goods.Kamala Harris toured Michigan’s Hemlock Semiconductor Plant this past Monday to emphasize her support for expanding semiconductor manufacturing in the US, which has been a major aspect of the Biden administration’s preparations for war. Harris’ tour coincided with the announcement of hiring at a nearby new facility that is set to become the nation’s largest silicon wafer production plant, a key component in semiconductor manufacturing.At the plant, she said, “I believe that as we think of industries of the future and the future of America’s workforce, we need to get beyond this idea that the only high skilled jobs require a college degree.” She proceeded to declare that one of her first actions as president would be to reassess federal jobs and identify which ones did not require a college degree.Harris’ comments are nearly identical to those which the Biden administration has been emphasizing to youth as part of a strategy to shift semiconductor production to the United States. Last year, President Biden’s wife, Dr. Jill Biden, was featured in Teen Vogue magazine with stories of her visiting community colleges and telling young people, “You don’t need a four-year degree to get a good-paying job.” Labor Secretary Julie Su traveled with her to promote the US Department of Labor’s “Youth Employment Works” strategy, which is directed at expanding employment for young people 14 to 24 years of age.
Harris holds rally at Muhlenberg College in wake of firing of professor for speaking out against Palestinian genocide --Democratic Party presidential nominee Kamala Harris visited Muhlenberg College in Allentown, Pennsylvania on Monday on the final day of the 2024 US election campaign. The venue was clearly chosen as a political signal of the candidate’s commitment to support Israeli genocide in Gaza.Muhlenberg College has been ground zero for the systematic assault initiated on basic democratic rights in the wake of mass protests that began last year against the Israeli government’s war on the Palestinians. Earlier this year, the college terminated Maura Finkelstein, a tenured professor of anthropology, for speaking out against the genocide of the Palestinian people on her personal social media account. As the World Socialist Web Site wrote previously, Finkelstein’s removal “is believed to be the first tenured faculty member fired for constitutionally-protected free speech opposing Israel’s genocide—in her case speech that took place outside the classroom, thereby trampling on both her academic freedom and her basic democratic rights.”Finkelstein’s case has begun to gain national attention following the release of a Department of Justice email detailing the flimsy nature of the various complaints which led to the teacher’s termination. Several articles have appeared in the national media following the WSWS’s lengthy interview with Finkelstein in which she defended her anti-Zionist views.Harris, speaking from Muhlenberg’s auditorium, predictably said nothing about any of this. Over the weekend, Harris had visited Michigan for her campaign. While she avoided speaking in predominantly Arab American cities such as Dearborn and Hamtramck in the Detroit area, she was compelled to give verbal acknowledgement of the mass suffering in Gaza, while promising nothing.In Pennsylvania, the Democratic candidate gladly dropped this charade. Her appearance was not geared toward making any statements in defense of democratic rights, but in effect lent her campaign’s stamp of approval to the college’s effort to banish Finkelstein and other opponents of genocide. Harris’s speech, book-ended by banal declarations featured in her various other appearances, called on audience members to fight for the “ideals of America,” without explaining what those were. She also did not say how it would be possible to do so under conditions in which freedom of speech was being extinguished on college campuses in the United States with the approval of the Democratic administration in which she is second in command.In her remarks, Harris praised Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro, who has threatened Pennsylvania schools for alleged weakness in confronting student protesters. Some of the most vicious attacks on school protests have occurred in Pennsylvania, including the removal of University of Pennsylvania’s president Liz Magill for her perceived failure to crack down on protests. The most recent is the effort to administratively remove Philadelphia high school teacher Keziah Ridgeway for letting her students create a pro-Palestinian school exhibit.
America's Most Common Nutrient Deficiencies And How To Spot Them - This infographic, via Visual Capitalist's Pallavi Rao, lists some of the American population’s most common nutrient deficiencies along with the symptoms to spot them, and the sources of food they can be found in. Data is sourced from the Micronutrient Information Center at Oregon State University, accessed October, 2024. They studied how much of the population falls below the estimated average requirement (EAR) for each nutrient.The EAR is a threshold of dietary intake that meets the needs of half the healthy people in a specific age and gender group. The data in this chart is for adults aged 18 and older.Per the data, most Americans do not get enough calcium or Vitamin D from their diet. However, Vitamin D is particularly difficult to meet through diet alone, as the primary source is sunlight. Experts recommend at least 15 minutes in the sun per day, though people with darker skin tones may need more.Deficiency results in aches and pains in the muscles and bones, fatigue, and even depression. Prolonged low levels can lead to osteoporosis—where bones become brittle and fragile, and break easily, also a symptom of low calcium levels.While Vitamin D occurs naturally in mushrooms, beef, fish, and egg yolks, it’s also added to milk, cereals, and certain foods like breakfast bars to help boost levels.Meanwhile, it’s estimated that around 50% of the population doesn’t meet their Vitamin A dietary requirement. A lack of it lead to vision loss, skin issues, delayed wound healing, and infertility.In general, American diets are energy-rich and nutrient-poor, because of a heavy reliance on processed foods and carbohydrates. Dieticians recommend more nutrient-dense foods (fruits, vegetables, certain meats, eggs, dairy, and whole grains) to meet all requirements.
FDA proposes removing ineffective decongestant found in most cold medicine -- The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is proposing to remove from the market a common ingredient found in most oral over-the-counter cold medicines because it doesn’t work. The move brings FDA one step closer to getting products containing oral phenylephrine pulled from stores. FDA officials said an agency review of the available data found oral phenylephrine is not effective as a nasal decongestant when taken in liquid or pill form, more than a year after an agency advisory panel came to the same conclusion. It’s still considered to be effective in nasal sprays. Currently, oral phenylephrine is widely used either as a standalone ingredient or in combination with others to ease cold and flu symptoms in products like Tylenol Cold and Flu, Mucinex, and Dayquil. The agency said the presence of phenylephrine doesn’t affect how the other active ingredients work. “It is the FDA’s role to ensure that drugs are safe and effective,” said Patrizia Cavazzoni, the director of the agency’s drug division. “Based on our review of available data, and consistent with the advice of the advisory committee, we are taking this next step in the process to propose removing oral phenylephrine because it is not effective as a nasal decongestant.” FDA said its proposal was not based on safety concerns, so companies can still market oral drugs containing the common ingredient. The proposal is open to public comments. If the agency makes a final decision, then the drugs would have to be removed from shelves. The agency said it would provide manufacturers with “appropriate time to either reformulate drugs containing oral phenylephrine or remove such drugs from the market.” An FDA advisory panel of independent experts met last year and unanimously agreed with FDA staff that there was no scientific evidence to support the claim that phenylephrine was an effective decongestant at standard or even higher doses. In briefing documents, FDA staff said “a significant amount of money is spent by consumers every year” buying a product with an ingredient that doesn’t work. Phenylephrine became the main decongestant in over-the-counter cold and allergy medicines in 2006, after the more effective decongestant pseudoephedrine was moved behind the counter and restricted, because it could be used to make methamphetamine. FDA reaffirmed the efficacy of phenylephrine in 2007, but agency staff called into question the quality of those studies during last year’s advisory meeting. The Consumer Healthcare Products Association, which represents manufacturers and marketers of over-the-counter medicines, protested the agency’s proposal. President and CEO Scott Melville argued consumers need a choice, and pulling phenylephrine (PE) would be immensely disruptive. “PE is the only oral OTC decongestant available without purchase restrictions,” Melville said in a statement. “Consumers need options for self-care, and freedom of choice for self-care is a core attribute of our nation’s healthcare system.” “PE should remain an available option for consumers, because Americans deserve the option to choose the safe and effective OTC medicines they prefer and rely on,” he added.
MIS-C much more common in kids not vaccinated against COVID-19, data reveal -A new large study of children in California shows that unvaccinated kids are at a much higher risk of developing multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) if they were unvaccinated with two doses of Pfizer's mRNA COVID vaccine before contracting COVID-19.The protection was significant in all children ages 5 to 17 years, but most notable in children ages 12 to 17, where even one dose of vaccine offered strong protection against developing the severe condition.MIS-C was first identified in the initial months of the pandemic. Clinically similar to Kawasaki disease or toxic shock syndrome, MIS-C occurs 2 to 8 weeks following COVID-19 infection in a small percentage of children."MIS-C is severe, with all children hospitalized, half requiring care in the intensive care unit, and 1–2 % dying," the authors wrote. "However, little is known about the effect of vaccination on the development of MIS-C, especially in the youngest children."In the study, the authors looked at all MIS-C cases in California reported from January 2, 2021, to June 23, 2022. Vaccination history was linked to MIS-C cases.A fully vaccinated MIS-C case was defined as a case occurring more than 14 days after the second dose of mRNA vaccine, the authors said.In total, 133 children with MIS-C (60 aged 5 to 11 and 73 aged 12 to 17 ) were included in the study, though California officials noted another 5 cases of MIS-C in children who were partially vaccinated during the study's time frame.In the 5- to 11-year-old age-group, 85% of those with MIS-C were unvaccinated, and the incidence rate ratio (IRR) of MIS-C in unvaccinated children was 3.3 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.6 to 6.7) times higher than in fully vaccinated children.Among 12- to 17-year-olds, 90% of those with MIS-C were unvaccinated, and the IRR of MIS-C in unvaccinated children was 22.9 times higher (95% CI, 10.5 to 49.8).When partially vaccinated children—those who received one vaccine dose— were added to the analysis with fully vaccinated children, the IRR of MIS-C among unvaccinated children aged 5 to 11 years was 3.4 times higher (95% CI, 1.7 to 6.6), and in the older age-group it was 16.0 times higher (95% CI, 8.4 to 30.3).
Study finds no adverse brain development in kids exposed to COVID in utero --A study of children exposed to maternal COVID-19 before birth found no adverse neurodevelopmental outcomes by 2 years and a slight increase in parent-reported infant self-regulatory behavior—a generally positive finding—at 6 months. A University of Calgary–led research team compared neurodevelopmental outcomes among 96 children prenatally exposed to SARS-CoV-2 infection in utero with those of 800 unexposed children during the first 2 years of life. Mothers reported on their children's temperament at ages 6 and 24 months and development and socio-emotional milestones at 12 and 24 months. The children were part of the Canadian Pregnancy During the COVID-19 Pandemic cohort, which enrolled participants from April 2020 to July 2022. Nearly all children (99%) who had prenatal SARS-CoV-2 infection exposure confirmed by polymerase chain reaction had symptoms, 54% had persistent symptoms, and 5% were hospitalized.The research was published yesterday in JAMA Network Open."Prenatal exposure to SARS-CoV-2 infection had a negligible association with child neurodevelopment during the first 2 years of life," the study authors wrote. "These differences should be interpreted with caution as they are preliminary, and the sample and cell sizes are small. Follow-up research is warranted to determine whether these predominantly null effects persist into later childhood."
Research shows nasal swab could help predict COVID-19 severity Involving a new research tool named FlowBEAT, a study in Science Translational Medicine links self-targeting antibodies in the airways and nose to milder cases of COVID-19 and more efficient recovery in patients, which means a nasal swab could help predict disease severity. The study is based on findings from 125 participants with varying levels of COVID-19 (from mild to severe) for up 2 years. The participants who had mild to moderate courses of illness had higher levels of autoantibodies in the nose. The finding is counterintuitive, the authors explained: Previous studies have shown autoantibodies in the blood of a COVID-19 patient are a sign of more significant infection. But nasal autoantibodies had not been studied."The nasal autoantibodies showed up soon after infection, targeting an important inflammatory molecule produced by the patient's cells," said senior author Eliver Ghosn, PhD, from the Lowance Center for Human Immunology and Emory Vaccine Center, in a press release from Emory Health Sciences. "While autoantibodies in the blood were linked to bad prognosis, producing them only in the nose soon after infection is linked to efficient recovery."The authors explained that the nasal autoantibodies likely latched on to viral molecules, preventing excessive inflammation, and helping the body return to homeostasis (healing) after infection.
Surveys reveal Americans' persistent mistrust in COVID vaccine science -- Levels of mistrust in the science behind COVID-19 vaccines have hovered at about 35% for the past 3 years among US adults, while the greatest levels of trust were seen among men, those with university degrees and high median outcomes, and those who had lost someone to COVID-19, according to an analysis of surveys published in Vaccine: X. Researchers from the City University of New York (CUNY) and the Barcelona Institute for Global Health in Spain evaluated responses to online surveys conducted in 2021, 2022, and 2023 as part of a larger study to understand determinants of COVID-19 vaccine acceptance in 23 countries. "As the pandemic evolved, the significance of general trust in science emerged at the forefront of public health discussions as a pivotal factor influencing vaccine uptake and particularly the willingness to receive future COVID-19 vaccine boosters," the team wrote.Slightly over half (50.9%) of respondents were women, and 35.7 % were university graduates. In 2023, 36.1% of participants each reported incomes above and below the US median. One-fifth (20.7%) reported no income, 31.5% said they had lost a family member or close friend to COVID-19, and 10% reported experiencing the loss within the past year.In 2021, 2022, and 2023, 63.9%, 67.2%, and 63.8% of respondents, respectively, said they trusted science, and the differences were nonsignificant. Those proportions were lower than the global averages reported in previous studies, averages for the larger 23-country surveys, and samples from other high-income countries. In 2023, trust in COVID-vaccine science was significantly higher in men (adjusted odds ratio [aOR, 1.42]), university graduates (aOR, 2.37), and those with incomes higher than the median, relative to no income (aOR, 1.74). These findings, the authors said, "suggest that science literacy needs to be fostered more vigorously among younger age and less affluent groups in our society. Science education in lower, middle, and high schools could be a powerful learning platform to explain the contributions of scientific thinking towards human well-being and promote science literacy."Trust in science wasn't significantly correlated with age or race but was significantly higher in participants reporting the loss of someone to COVID-19 within the past year (aOR, 3.91) or more than a year ago (aOR, 2.20), relative to no such loss. "On one hand, direct confrontation with the severity of a disease may heighten an individual's appreciation for the need for new or more effective scientific efforts to combat it, thus enhancing trust in science and the willingness to accept vaccines," the authors wrote. "On the other hand, grief and the perception of failure to protect loved ones can erode trust in the very scientific endeavors meant to safeguard the public's health." In 2023, 83.0% of respondents reported vaccine acceptance, and 72.2 % of vaccinees said they were willing to receive future recommended COVID-19 boosters. Vaccine acceptance over time was consistently higher among respondents who reported loss of family member or friend to COVID-19, with 2023 acceptance at 89.9%. Those who didn't experience personal loss had significantly lower acceptance rates, especially in 2021 (63.5%), but they reached 80% in 2023.
Recent COVID-19 vaccination tied to lower risk of long COVID - New data from the VENUS (Vaccine Effectiveness, Networking, and Universal Safety) study in Japan reveal that the risk of developing long COVID is significantly lower when people have been recently vaccinated before infection. The study was published yesterday in Vaccine. The retrospective study followed participants diagnosed with COVID-19 between August 2020 and December 2022. The incidences of 36 post-COVID-19 conditions were monitored 3, 5, and 8 months after infection. In total, 84,464 participants were assigned one of three vaccination status groups (distant, intermediate, or recent vaccination), with distant vaccination occurring 365 days or more prior to infection, intermediate being 150 to 364 days after their last vaccine dose, and recent meaning receiving the vaccine 14 to 149 days before infection. The overall mean age was 53 years, and the mean age by group was 36 years for the distant group, 57 years for the intermediate group, and 65 years for the recent group, the authors said. Of the 84,464 participants, 9,642 (11.4%) developed post-COVID-19 conditions over 8 months. Lower risk of heart, respiratory symptoms The distant vaccination group had a higher risk for most of the 36 long-COVID symptoms compared to the most recent group, especially for respiratory conditions and heart conditions. "Respiratory conditions are the most common symptom of COVID-19 in the acute phase, and their incidence were the lowest in the recent group in all three follow-up periods," the authors wrote.
Trial shows safety of getting COVID, flu vaccines at same time -Results from a randomized control trial published yesterday inJAMA Network Open show that participants who received mRNA COVID-19 and inactivated influenza vaccines simultaneously had no more adverse effects than those who received the two shots sequentially, 1 or 2 weeks apart. The study included 335 people who were vaccinated from October 2021 to June 2023 at one of three US study sites. All participants were ages 5 years and older and intended to receive both flu and mRNA COVID-19 vaccines. The average age of participants was 33.4 years, and 63% were female. In total, 169 received the vaccines simultaneously, while 166 received them sequentially. The authors said the main outcomes of the study were reactogenicity, including fever, chills, muscle aches, and/or joint pain of moderate or greater severity within 7 days after vaccination. Serious adverse events and adverse events of special interest were assessed for 121 days. Over half of participants (57.0%) reported a history of SARS-CoV-2 infection or had detectible antibodies to the virus at the time of study enrollment. The authors found that the proportion of study participants with the primary composite reactogenicity outcome in the simultaneous group (25.6%) was noninferior to the proportion in the sequential group (31.3%). "Fewer than 13% of participants in either group (simultaneous, 14 [8.3%]; sequential, 21 [12.6%]) had a severe reaction for any of the solicited reactions, and no participants sought medical attention for a solicited reaction," the authors wrote. Similarly, there was no difference between the two groups in health-related quality of life indexes.
Australian COVID inquiry promotes “let it rip,” denounces public health measures - The report of a government commissioned inquiry into Australia’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic was released on Tuesday. The inquiry spanned a year. The report runs to 892 pages. It is, however, completely worthless from an analytical or scientific standpoint, adding nothing to an understanding of pandemics and public health in general, or the experience of COVID-19 in particular. Instead, the report is a crude promotion of the profit-driven “let it rip” policies that persist to this day. It is noteworthy only as yet another marker of the assault on public health and the rights of the population that this homicidal program has entailed. That conclusion was preordained. When the Labor government initiated the inquiry in September last year, they instigated a “public discussion” that focussed solely on the adversity associated with public health measures, such as social distancing, lockdowns and school closures. In one interview, for instance, Labor’s Health Minister Mark Butler referred to these measures, declaring: “We don’t want to do that next time. We don’t want to do that in the next pandemic.” The government selected a three-person panel that was always going to arrive at the conclusion Butler had already outlined. Robyn Kruk, who has been in the upper echelons of the public sector bureaucracy, working with pro-business governments for decades, was its chair. Economist Dr Angela Jackson was on the panel. The only individual of the three with medical expertise was Professor Catherine Bennett, Deakin University chair of epidemiology. Throughout the pandemic, Bennett was one of the epidemiologists who most aggressively supported the lifting of public health measures and insisted that the population would have to “live with the virus.” Under conditions where many principled epidemiologists and doctors sharply denounced this policy, the selection of Bennett as the sole public health expert on the panel made a mockery of its purported independence. Professor Catherine Bennett [Photo: Department of the Prime Minister and the Cabinet] Most fundamentally, the report presents the COVID-19 crisis entirely as a thing of the past. In a document supposedly about official preparedness for pandemics, the pandemic that continues is all but ignored. With the dismantling of official testing and reporting across the country, case numbers and other metrics are almost impossible to track. But it is clear that the virus continues to spread. In fact, COVID-contributed fatalities this year have occurred at a rate of 497.5 per month, barely lower than the 512 per month recorded in 2023. Other basic elements of the pandemic are simply ignored. The fact that COVID deaths resulted in the first decline in Australian life expectancy in at least 50 years does not rate a mention. To the extent that the mass deaths are referenced, more than 25,000 official COVID fatalities, it is in the coldest and most unsympathetic manner. In a report of such length, there is inevitably substantial padding. The authors attempt at times to adopt a pretence of even-handedness to bolster the credibility of their findings. But the overall thrust is a denunciation of the successful public health measures that limited COVID deaths in the first two years of the pandemic to 2,239, and an insistence that they never be implemented again.
CDC reports slight flu rise in children, first kid's flu death of season --In its weekly flu season update today, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said though activity remains low nationally, there are slight increases in children, along with the first confirmed pediatric flu death of the 2024-25 season. A few markers showed small increases last week, including percent positivity, which remains below the national baseline. Emergency department visits for flu increased a bit in pediatric age-groups.Of two child flu deaths reported to the CDC this week, one was reported from February and was added to the previous season's pediatric deaths, which are now at 204. The other occurred in the middle of October and was related to an unsubtyped influenza A virus. In updates on other respiratory viruses, today the CDC said COVID-19 activity is stable and declining in most areas. Wastewater SARS-CoV-2 levels remain low and are highest in the Midwest. Tracking byWastewaterSCAN, a national wastewater monitoring system based at Stanford University in partnership with Emory University, shows virus detections in the low category, with a downward trend over the past 3 weeks. In a SARS-COV-2 variant update today, the CDC reported the first decline in KP.3.1.1 proportions, which dropped from 57% to 52% over the past 2 weeks. Meanwhile, the proportion of XEC, a recombinant of two JN.1 viruses, continued a steady rise, up from 17% to 28% over the same period. Another variant, called MC.1, also showed increasing proportions. In an update last week from the CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, the group said MC.1 is a descendant of KP.3.1.1 and that the updated vaccine is expected to work well against new variants that may become dominant, including XEC and MC.1.Regarding respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), the CDC said it is seeing signs of rising activity in the southern, southeastern, and middle Atlantic regions, especially in young children.
Flu deaths high in hospitalized elderly, up to 30 days after discharge, new data show --A new study based on pre–COVID-19-pandemic data from nine US states shows that all-cause mortality burden is substantial among patients hospitalized with flu. The study is published in Clinical Infectious Diseases. The study collected data from the 2010-11 through 2018-19 seasons from the Influenza Hospitalization Surveillance Network, then linked flu cases to death certificates to find patients who died from any cause during their influenza hospital stay or within 30 days post discharge. In total, among 121,390 patients hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed influenza over 9 seasons, 5.5% of case-patients died. And 48% of deaths occurred within 30 days of hospital discharge. The average time between discharge and death was 9 days. Among those who died, 76% were age 65 years or older, and 71% were non-Hispanic White. Only 37% of deaths had "influenza" on their death certificate, the authors said. "Among patients that died post-discharge, 36.9% were discharged to a nursing home or long-term care facility, 36.7% to hospice, and 23.3% to a private residence," the authors said. Patients who died within a month of hospital discharge were more likely to have one or more of several underlying health conditions, including cardiovascular disease, chronic lung disease, immunosuppressive conditions, chronic metabolic disease and neurologic disease. Medical providers should be aware of the residual risk for mortality soon after discharge from an influenza-associated hospitalization, particularly among older adults. "Medical providers should be aware of the residual risk for mortality soon after discharge from an influenza-associated hospitalization, particularly among older adults," the authors concluded. "Influenza surveillance systems should consider capture of post-discharge outcomes to better characterize immediate and short-term impacts of influenza on morbidity and mortality.
CDC tracks rise in pertussis activity --Pertussis (whooping cough) cases in the United States this year have risen fivefold compared to the same time last year, as disease activity returned to a prepandemic pattern, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said yesterday. So far this year, cases are tracking higher than 2019, the year before the COVID-19 pandemic. Some state health departments have warned of rising cases, including Washington, which said yesterday that, as of November 2, nearly 1,200 cases have been reported statewide, up sharply from 51 cases reported during the same period in 2023. It said it expects a further rise in cases in both unvaccinated and vaccinated people given waning immunity from the acellular vaccine. Tao Sheng Kwan-Gett, MD, a pediatrician and chief health officer at the Washington State Department of Health, said the surge in cases is a reminder of the critical role of vaccines for protecting vulnerable people, especially infants younger than 1 year old. "To protect babies from whooping cough, people of all ages should get up to date on pertussis vaccination, and anyone with symptoms should see a health care provider to see if testing and antibiotic treatment are needed."The CDC said several factors are probably contributing to a post-pandemic rise in pertussis activity. Aside from waning vaccine immunity, they include improved recognition by healthcare providers, greater access to and use of diagnostics, and increased surveillance and reporting to health departments.Caused by Bordetella pertussis, the disease is highly contagious and can begin with common cold symptoms including runny nose, but can lead to severe coughing that can last weeks to months. Infants are at highest risk for severe illness and death. In Washington, 28 pertussis patients were hospitalized, including 12 babies.
Study finds high prevalence of resistant bacteria in infants in low-resource countries -A systematic review and meta-analysis found a that a "substantial" proportion of infants younger than 3 months in low-resource countries were colonized with antimicrobial-resistant bacteria, researchers reported today in JAMA Network Open. Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, and Staphylococcus aureus are leading causes of bacterial infections in newborns in LMICs and have been identified as the three main pathogens responsible for deaths attributable to antimicrobial resistance (AMR). But data on resistant infections in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is scarce because of limited access to healthcare and microbiologic testing, and even less is known about resistant infections in newborns because of sample-collection challenges and low positivity rates of blood cultures. To better understand the problem, a team of French researchers analyzed literature on bacterial colonization, reasoning that colonization with resistant bacteria is less dependent on access to healthcare, samples are easier to collect, and colonization often precedes subsequent infection. The review yielded 67 studies involving 17,152 infants, with 51 evaluating 3GCRE and CRE colonization and 16 evaluating MRSA colonization. The meta-analysis found that the pooled prevalence of 3GCRE colonization was 30.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 21.4% to 40.7%), varying from 18.2% in non-hospitalized infants to 48.2% in hospitalized infants. The prevalence of CRE and MRSA colonization was 2.6% (95% CI, 0.7% to 8.8%) and 2.7% (95% CI, 1.0% to 6.7%), respectively. Among the 19 studies that reported risk factor analysis, 11 reported risk factors for 3GCRE colonization. Analysis of those studies found that increased risk of 3GCRE colonization was associated with hospital birth (odds ratio [OR], 1.87; 95% CI, 1.33 to 2.64), neonatal antibiotic use (OR, 2.96; 95% CI, 1.43 to 6.11), and prolonged rupture of membranes (OR, 3.86; 95% CI, 2.19 to 6.84). "Health care settings and neonatal antibiotic administration appear to be important factors in the acquisition of antibiotic-resistant bacteria, highlighting the importance of strengthening infection control and antimicrobial stewardship in maternity and neonatal units in LMICs," the authors wrote. The authors say the high prevalence of resistant pathogens found in newborns can be explained in part by conceptualizing the neonatal microbiome as "an empty biological niche." At birth, microbial diversity in the microbiome is low, and it doesn't reach adult levels until the age of 3. As a result, even limited exposure to resistant pathogens that live in hospitals in LMICs can lead to colonization. "This limited diversity may facilitate the establishment of antibiotic-resistant pathogens in neonates even after brief exposure," they wrote. "Additionally, it may lead to faster bacterial selection following antibiotic administration, potentially increasing the effect of antibiotic administration on the acquisition of antibiotic-resistant pathogens in neonates compared with adults or children." The authors note that high heterogeneity among the studies suggests that the results should be interpreted with caution. Nonetheless, they say the findings may provide a basis for future research and design of interventions aimed at preventing neonatal colonization with resistant bacteria.
South African study finds high risk of TB infection in kids - A prospective birth cohort study conducted in South Africa found that children who grow up in a setting where tuberculosis (TB) transmission is common have a high risk of TB infection and disease, with up to 10% developing the disease by age 10, researchers reported yesterday in The Lancet Child & Adolescent Health.Although 1.2 million children globally develop TB disease every year, and roughly 200,000 die from it, few studies have investigated the risk of developing TB during childhood, particularly in high-burden countries like South Africa. Approximately 15% to 20% of all TB cases in South Africa, which has one of the highest TB incidence rates in the world, are likely to occur in children.To assess the risk, researchers from the Boston University School of Public Health (BUSPH), the University of Cape Town, and the University of Sao Paulo followed 1,137 women and their 1,143 children who were living near Cape Town from 2012 through 2023 and were enrolled in the Drakenstein Child Health Study, a cohort study of children born in a setting with high TB and HIV burdens. A previous study of this cohort found high rates of tuberculin skin test conversion (presumptive evidence of TB infection) and TB disease in the first 5 years of life.For this study, the researchers extended their work to examine the children through the first 10 years of life. They tested the children for Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection and TB disease using tuberculin skin tests at 6 months and 12 months of age, then annually in children with a negative test. "To the best of our knowledge, this is the first birth cohort study to prospectively investigate M tuberculosis infection and tuberculosis disease in the first decade of life in an area with a high tuberculosis burden," the study authors wrote. Over the follow-up period, the annual risk of tuberculin skin test conversion was 6.6 per 100 person-years, ranging from 4.4 to 9.3, with the greatest annual risk occurring at 1 year (9.3%) and 8 years (8.9%). The cumulative hazard of tuberculin skin test conversion was 36% at age 8 years, and the cumulative hazard of TB disease was 10% at age 10. "These results are striking and show that children in these communities in South Africa are at extraordinarily high risk," study co-senior author Leonardo Martinez, PhD, MPH, assistant professor of epidemiology at BUSPH, said in a university press release. "It’s clearly an urgent health problem with both short and long-term impacts on these children and their families."
Four cases of sexually transmitted fungal infection reported in New York -A paper published last week in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report describes four US cases of an emerging, sexually transmitted fungal infection.The infections were caused by Trichophyton mentagrophytes type VII (TMVII), a sexually transmitted fungus that causes genital tinea (ringworm). TMVII infections have previously been reported in patients who had contact with sex workers in Southeast Asia and men who have sex with men (MSM) in France. The first US case was reported in June in a man who reported sexual contact with multiple men while traveling in Europe and California.The four case-patients were diagnosed with tinea between April and July, and fungal cultures and DNA sequencing identified TMVII as the cause of the infection. All four patients were men aged 30 to 39 years from New York City who reported recent sexual contact with other men; one was a sex worker, two had sex with each other, and one reported recent travel to Europe. All presented with rashes on the face, buttocks, or genitals and were successfully treated with antifungals.The authors of the report, including clinicians from Columbia University Irving Medical Center and New York University Grossman School of Medicine, say healthcare providers should be aware that TMVII can spread through sexual contact and cause lesions in the genitals, buttocks, face, trunk, or extremities and should advise patients with TMVII infection about the importance of avoiding skin-to-skin contact with the affected areas."Public health surveillance, health care provider and patient education and awareness, and increased access to dermatophyte identification and antifungal susceptibility testing could help detect, monitor, and prevent the spread of TMVII," they wrote.
ICU study shows emergence of highly resistant Acinetobacter strain -A new study by Chinese and British researchers suggests that a virulent strain of carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (CRAB) could be spreading widely across Asia and beyond. The study, published late last week in Nature Communications,describes a 3-month longitudinal genomic study conducted in 2021 by researchers from Zhejiang University School of Medicine and the University of Birmingham in a 28-bed intensive care unit (ICU) in Hangzhou, China. The study was a follow-up to a similar study conducted in the same ICU in 2019, which found that nearly a third of the ICU patients were infected with CRAB, primarily by representatives of global clone 2 (GC2), one of the two strains that account for most CRAB globally. Because of its high levels of antibiotic resistance, limited treatment options, and ability to persist in hospital environments and cause severe and deadly infections in critically ill patients, CRAB is considered a priority pathogen by the World Health Organization. The findings from the initial study led to the development and implementation of CRAB-focused infection prevention and control (IPC) interventions in the ICU in September 2020."Once introduced, the suite of interventions targeted ICU patients, the ICU environment (including equipment and sinks), and ICU staff," the study authors wrote. In the follow-up study, researchers performed whole-genome sequencing (WGS) on 518 A baumanniisamples collected from the ICU environment and patients. Their aim was to evaluate how the CRAB population in the ICU had developed in response to the IPC interventions. They found that 80.9% of the A baumannii isolates were CRAB, but with higher-level resistance to carbapenems. Furthermore, WGS revealed that the proportion of GC2 isolates fell from 99.5% in 2019 to 50.9%. The remaining CRAB isolates belonged to highly clonal sequence type (ST)164, a strain that was not present in the initial study. The ST164 isolates carried five acquired antibiotic-resistance genes (including two carbapenemase genes), had twice the levels of carbapenem resistance as GC2 isolates, and had been evolving in the ICU since mid-2020.
CDC: US hospitals saw declines in healthcare-associated infections last year -- A progress report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) shows that rates of healthcare-associated infections (HAIs) at US hospitals fell in 2023.The 2023 National and State HAI Progress Report, based on data provided to the CDC's National Healthcare Safety Network by 38,000 acute-care hospitals, inpatient rehabilitation facilities (IRFs), and long-term acute-care hospitals (LTACHs), shows overall declines in HAIs compared with 2022. The declines, primarily seen in acute-care hospitals, reflect a continuing downward trend in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, with some HAIs falling below pre-pandemic levels.Overall, US acute-care hospitals in 2023 saw a 15% decline in central line-associated bloodstream infections (CLABSIs) compared with 2022, an 11% drop in catheter-associated urinary tract infections (CAUTIs), and a 5% decline in ventilator-associated events (VAEs). Additionally, hospital-onset methicillin-resistantStaphylococcus aureus bacteremia was down 16% compared with 2022, and hospital-onset Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI) fell by 13%.At the state level, 30 states performed better in 2023 on at least two infection types, 21 states performed better on three infection types, and 9 states performed better on four infection types. The declines were not observed in all healthcare settings, however. In IRFs and LTACHs, only hospital-onset CDI fell significantly in 2023 (by 13% and 14%, respectively). IRFs also saw an 8% increase in CAUTIs.
Columbus among top 10 unhealthiest cities in United States, according to Forbes (WCMH) – Columbus is among the top 10 unhealthiest cities in the United States, according to a recent study by Forbes. Between 2020 and 2050, the number of adults aged 50 and older with at least one chronic disease is projected to nearly double. Some cities are more impacted than others, with analyses suggesting income level, education and commuting patterns may influence how healthy a city’s residents are, according to Forbes. A study by the media company compared the 50 most populated cities in the country across eight metrics, including the number of adults who reported inactivity and smoking, as well as the percentage of adults with diabetes and high blood pressure. All data was sourced from The City Health Dashboard from 2021. Columbus came in as the 10th most unhealthy city in America. The city experienced about 200 heart disease deaths and 57 opioid deaths per 100,000 residents in 2021. Additionally, about 19% of adults reported binge drinking, 19% reported smoking and 37% reported being obese. Taking the No. 1 spot as the unhealthiest city in the country was Detroit, which had the highest percentage of adults who reported obesity (45.5%) and smoking (28.5%). Coming in second place was Milwaukee, which had the highest number of opioid overdoses (59.2) and the highest percentage of adults who reported binge drinking (22.6%). In third place was Memphis, Tennessee, followed by Philadelphia; Tulsa, Oklahoma; Indianapolis; Las Vegas; Louisville, Kentucky; and Nashville, Tennessee. On the other hand, the healthiest city was San Jose, California. The city had the second-lowest number of opioid deaths per 100,000 residents (8.3) and the second-lowest percentage of adults who reported obesity (20.9%). San Jose was followed by Austin, Texas; Seattle; San Diego; and Denver.
UK detects clade 1b mpox in household contacts of earlier case ==The UK Health Security Agency (HSA) yesterday announced two more clade 1b mpox cases, both of them contacts of the country's first imported case. In a statement, the HSA said both patients are receiving care in London at Guy's and St Thomas' National Health Service Foundation Trust.Susan Hopkins, MB BCh, the HAS's chief medical adviser, said, "Mpox is very infectious in households with close contact and so it is not unexpected to see further cases within the same household." She added that the overall risk to the UK population remains low.The country reported its first clade 1b case on October 30 in a person in London who had recently traveled to countries in Africa where the virus is spreading. The United Kingdom was the fifth country outside of Africa to report an imported case of clade 1b mpox, which is different from the clade 2 virus spreading globally.The novel clade 1b virus was first detected in April amid a large outbreak under way in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). It is circulating among other mpox clades in the DRC and some of its neighbors, such as Uganda and Burundi.
Cases top 50,000 in Africa's mpox outbreak - Last week African countries reported 2,532 new mpox cases, mostly in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Burundi, pushing the total since the first of the year to 50,840 cases, officials from Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) said today. The officials also reported 32 more deaths from the virus. At the briefing, Jean Kaseya, MD, MPH, Africa CDC's director-general, said cases continue to rise in Uganda and the outbreak has spread to one more district of Central African Republic (CAR), Paoua, which is on the border with Chad. Rwanda, after going 4 weeks with no new cases, reported 20 more, which, according to Ngashi Ngongo, MD, PhD, leader of Africa CDC's mpox incident management team, reflects a testing backlog. The country has also been battling a Marburg virus outbreak. Countries are making progress, especially with testing. And those that have started vaccine campaigns are reporting good uptake. Officials said, however, that a remaining challenge is immunization hasn't yet started for children, one of the hardest-hit groups, because of regulatory and supply issues. Currently, the Bavarian Nordic Jynneos vaccine is recommended for adolescents and adults only. Kaseya said Africa CDC is still working with Japan on a plan to receive about 3 million doses of the LC16 vaccine, which the country used in the 1970s to vaccinate young children.Rwanda and the DRC, the two countries that have started vaccinating, have met or passed their vaccine targets. Nigeria's campaign was slated to begin on October 29, but due to logistical issues is now expected to launch on November 18.Kaseya urged countries outside of Africa to follow through on their pledges of support. He noted that the United States has pledged 1 million vaccine doses and $500 million to support the outbreak response. He said he looks forward to continuing talks with the United States and its incoming administration about strategic health relationships. In related developments, Africa CDC and its partners, including the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), Gavi, UNICEF, and the World Health Organization, yesterday announced that the 899,000 doses of mpox vaccine has been allocated for nine countries.In a joint statement, the groups said the allocation mechanism is designed to ensure that limited doses are used efficiently and fairly. The nine countries are the CAR, Ivory Coast, the DRC, Kenya, Liberia, Nigeria, Rwanda, South Africa, and Uganda, with 85% earmarked for the DRC, the hardest-hit country. The vaccines came from Canada, Gavi, the European Union, and the United States. More than 5.85 million doses are expected by the end of the year.
Quick takes: RSV vaccine access in the Americas, polio in Gaza, malaria vaccine in Sudan | CIDRAP
- The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) announced last week that it will provide countries in the Region of the Americas with affordable access to the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine. PAHO said that around 13 million children are born in the region each year who could benefit from the World Health Organization (WHO)-approved vaccine, which is recommended for pregnant women between 32 and 36 weeks of gestation by PAHO's Technical Advisory Group. Countries in the region that request the vaccine will be able to access it through PAHO next year.
- The United Nations (UN) reports that Israeli air strikes in northern Gaza over the weekend hit a polio vaccine center, injuring six people, including four children. The air strikes occurred as UN agencies and partners are working to ensure that 100,000 children receive their final dose of the polio vaccine. The vaccination campaign in Gaza began following the detection of a circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 case in a child and positive findings from environmental samples. More than 58,600 children in Gaza received a second vaccine dose on November 2, according to UNICEF officials.
- Sudan today became the latest country in Africa, and the first in the WHO's Eastern Mediterranean Regions, to introduce the malaria vaccine, according to media reports and a post on the social media site X (formerly known as Twitter). China's Xinhua news agency reports that the Sudanese Health Ministry launched the integration of the vaccine into routine childhood vaccinations in Gedaref State and Blue Nile State in southern Sudan. Sudanese Health Minister Haitham Mohamed Ibrahim said Sudan records 2 to 3 million malaria cases annually.
Quick takes: Polio in 7 countries, lab monkey escape, pneumonic tularemia in Colorado | CIDRAP
- Seven countries reported new polio cases the week, including Pakistan, with four new infections involving wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1), according to the latest weekly update from the Global Polio Eradication Initiative. Pakistan and Afghanistan are the two remaining countries where WPV1 is still endemic, and both have reported steep rises this year. Pakistan's new cases—one in Balochistan and three in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa—push the country's total for the year to 45 cases. In Africa, five countries reported more vaccine-derived poliovirus cases, including Senegal, with its first circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) case for the year. The other four are the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Niger, and Nigeria. In the Middle East, Yemen reported two cVDPV2 cases in Aden in patients with paralysis onset in September.
- Law enforcement officials in South Carolina's Beaufort County have alerted residents about an escape of 43 rhesus macaque monkeys from an Alpha Genesis research facility, CBS News reported. The company provides the animals to research labs, conducts research, and oversees a colony of free-range monkeys on South Carolina's Morgan Island. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said the public health risk is low as long as people don't approach or come in contact with the monkeys. Authorities said the escapees are very young females that hadn't yet been used for research. In a Facebook update today, the Yemassee Police Department said the primates haven't been recaptured yet and are playfully exploring the company's perimeter fence as the company keeps close watch of the situation.
- In Colorado, Boulder County reported its first human tularemia case since 2015, which involves a person who lives near Boulder who has the rare pneumonic form of the disease. In a November 1 statement, the county said the patient's symptoms began on October 2 with fever, which worsened to include altered mental status and fluid on the lungs. An investigation found that the patient had exposure to a cat and a dog, though the animals have shown no illness signs. Health officials said they aren't ruling out an insect bite as the infection source. Tularemia is caused by the bacterium Francisella tularensis, and wild animals such as rodents and rabbits are known to carry the pathogen, which is highly infectious and is classified as a high-priority bioterrorism agent by the US government.
California, Washington report more suspected H5 avian flu cases - Two states affected by avian flu outbreaks in dairy cattle and commercial poultry reported more probable H5 avian flu infections in farm workers over the last few days, four in California and three in Washington.In other developments, federal officials reported more outbreaks in dairy cows and poultry, and in California, Los Angeles County announced that H5 has been detected in wastewater for the first time. With the 4 new infections, the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) has now reported 20 cases, of which 17 have been confirmed by testing at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).The CDPH also notes one other probable case in a dairy worker who met the probable case definition and had a sample that tested positive at a local lab; however, the CDC's confirmation test was negative.Also, the Washington State Department of Health on November 1 reported 3 more probable cases in people exposed to sick poultry, raising the state's total to 12, of which 9 have been confirmed by the CDC. The patients traveled while they were sick to Oregon, which has recently reported the virus in poultry, including at a backyard farm where a pig also recently tested positive, the first known case in US swine.In an October 31 statement, the Oregon Health Authority said the patients were monitored by Oregon health officials while in the state. All had been exposed to sick poultry in Washington. The agency added that the three people have returned to Washington for monitoring for 10 days after their last exposure to infected birds.In its November 1 update on confirmed human cases so far this year, the CDC listed 41 cases in six states, with the jurisdiction pending for 1 case in patient exposed to poultry.In animal health developments, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has confirmed 38 more H5N1 outbreaks in dairy cattle, 30 in California and 8 in Utah, which the state had earlier said are located in Cache County. The virus has now been confirmed in 442 herds across 15 states. When factoring in all livestock, including swine and alpacas, APHIS has confirmed 444 detections in 16 states. Also, today APHIS confirmed more poultry outbreaks in three western states, including a commercial turkey farm in California's Sacramento County that houses 48,300 birds. The agency also confirmed two outbreaks in backyard flocks in Washington, one in Okanogan County and the other in Stevens County, as well as an event involving backyard birds in Oregon's Jackson County. H5 detected in LA County wastewaterThe Los Angeles County Department of Public Health announced on November 1 that H5 avian flu has been detected at one of its wastewater sampling sites for the first time.No human cases have been reported in the county, and the overall risk to residents remains low, the county said. It added that it is actively engaging with key risk groups, such as dairy and meat processing workers, to pinpoint any possible sources of the H5 virus in wastewater.
CDC recommends testing more farmworkers for H5N1 bird flu -Federal officials said Thursday that farmworkers exposed to bird flu should be tested for the virus even if they are not showing any symptoms, especially if they were not wearing the proper personal protective equipment. The recommendation follows the release of a new Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) showing some dairy workers have been unknowingly infected with the virus. In the report, officials write that blood tests were taken over the summer from 45 dairy farmworkers in Michigan and 70 farmworkers in Colorado where cows had tested positive for the virus. Results from the blood sample testing show eight of those workers had evidence of a recent H5N1 bird flu infection. The serum tests were conducted between 47 days and 59 days after the virus had been confirmed in a herd on each farm, the report notes, and most of the workers reported having multiple job tasks like cleaning cow manure, milking cows or moving and hauling cattle. Those workers who tested positive for the virus all reported having cleaned the room or building where cows are milked and 88 percent reported having milked cows. None of the workers whose blood work showed signs of infection said they used respiratory protection when working and only three said they used eye protection, according to the report. Only one of the eight workers reported having close contact with infected cows. “All eight were Spanish speakers … none wore respiratory protection, and less than half wore eye protection highlighting the need for better tools to support worker protection,” Demetre Daskalakis, head of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Disease, said during a call with reporters. Out of the 115 workers, 40 percent said they started to feel sick after bird flu was detected in the cows on the farms where they worked. Out of the eight workers who showed signs of infection in the blood work, only four said they felt sick after being exposed to the infected cows. The most common bird flu symptoms among those sick workers were red, itchy eyes with discharge, while the other four reported no symptoms at all. The data shows that those who are infected with H5N1 may not show symptoms, Nirav Sha, the CDC’s principal deputy director, said during a call with reporters. “That means that we in public health need to cast a wider net in terms of who is offered a test so that we can identify, treat and isolate those individuals,” he said.
CDC expands avian flu testing for farm workers, notes 7% infection rate in those exposed to infected cows - An eagerly anticipated serology study in farm workers exposed to H5N1-infected dairy cattle shows that 7% had antibodies suggesting prior infection, findings that today triggered enhanced testing, prophylactic (preventive) treatment, and use of personal protective equipment (PPE) from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The number of H5 avian flu infections in farm works continues a slow but steady rise. California yesterday reported one more infection in a dairy worker, and Washington state reported two more in poultry cullers. The cases boost the CDC'sconfirmed case total to 46. The serology study included blood samples collected from June to August from 115 farm workers who had been exposed to sick cows in Colorado and Michigan. The samples were collected between 15 and 90 days after exposure. CDC scientists and their state health partners detailed the findings today in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR).At a media briefing today, Demetre Daskalakis, MD, MPH, who directs the CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said the serology testing involved a multistep protocol that was done to rule out cross-contamination from seasonal flu viruses. Of the 115 samples, 8 were positive for H5 avian influenza antibodies. He added that the 7% infection level isn't far from other recent seroprevalence studies for H5N1, such as in Egyptian market workers, which found a 4.6% level.Dairy workers, all of whom spoke Spanish, were also interviewed about prior symptoms, the types of jobs they did on the farms, and the protective equipment they used, which Daskalakis said was done so that health officials can better understand the human infection dynamics on the farms. Four of the workers said they remembered having symptoms, which included conjunctivitis. Tasks included milking cows and cleaning barns. None of the workers wore respiratory protection, and less than half used eye protection. Only one of the workers reported working with cows known to be infected.
- The United Kingdom today reported one more clade 1b mpox case, in the third household member of the country’s first imported case, the Health Security Agency (HSA) said today in an update. The UK has now reported four cases, the first cluster outside of Africa. The latest patient is receiving care at a hospital in London. Health officials said further cases in the same household aren’t surprising, given how infectious it is in that setting. The UK’s index patient was exposed to the virus during recent travel to African countries experiencing mpox outbreaks.
- Over the last 2 days, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has confirmed one more H5N1 avian flu outbreak in dairy cattle, which involves a ninth herd in Utah. The event pushes the national total in dairy cows to 443 outbreaks across 15 states. Also, APHISconfirmed one more H5N1 outbreak in poultry, which involves backyard birds in Montana’s Flathead County.
- The UK’s Department for Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) yesterday raised the risk level for highly pathogenic H5 avian influenza from medium to high following the identification of H5N5 at a commercial poultry farm in Yorkshire. It said though detections in wild birds in recent years have been dominated by H5N1, the identification of H5N5 was likely and follows earlier detections in Great Britain and continental Europe.
Scientists track emergence of novel H5N1 flu reassortant in Cambodia - Toward the end of 2023 as Cambodia faced a dramatic rise in human H5N1 avian flu cases, the country's scientists identified a novel reassortant that combined genes from an older 2.3.2.1c clade known to circulate in Southeast Asia with internal genes from the newer 2.3.4.4b clade that has spread globally, infecting a wide range of animals, even reaching Antarctica. In a preprint study yesterday, a team led by the Pasteur Institute in Cambodia published a detailed genetic analysis of the novel H5N1 reassortant, which yielded new details on the spillover timeline and emphasized the need for stepped-up surveillance. After almost a decade with no human H5N1 cases, Cambodia experienced a startling rise in infections, with 16 cases reported from February 2023 to August 2024. Investigators found that patients had contact with sick poultry or poultry environments. At least three of the patients died from their infections. No human-to-human spread was reported.The team's genomic analysis revealed two spillover phases, one in February 20233 caused by the older 2.3.2.1c clade and one that began in October 2023 that involved the novel reassortant that combined genes from the two clades. Examination of the viruses from Cambodian poultry found that the novel reassortant has replaced the circulating 2.3.2.1c clade.The new virus has mutations, including PB2 E627K, that have been linked to adaptation to mammals and airborne transmission. The authors praised Cambodia's One Health response to the spike in human cases and said more efforts are needed to reduce human exposure to the virus, especially in higher-risk rural areas. Also, they said more training is needed for healthcare workers on early detection and clinical case management.More risk assessment studies are critical to help better understand the zoonotic risk from the new reassortant, the group wrote. "In addition, the detection of the PB2 627K mutation in poultry is 296 also a concern, as it may become established in widespread circulation." The surge in human cases underscores the ongoing threat from avian influenza viruses to global health security, and despite the global attention on the expanded host range of the 2.3.4.4b clade, 2.3.2.1c remains a concern in Asia, where both clades cocirculate.
Surveillance turns up 18 previously undetected cases of tick-borne Yezo virus in China --Disease surveillance and genomic analyses in northeast China identifies the emerging tick-borne Yezo virus in 2% of 988 participants, prompting researchers to urge clinicians to be vigilant in patients with symptoms of infection.For the study, published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases, researchers from Shandong University conducted Yezo virus surveillance at a hospital in Heilongjiang Province.The team collected sera from patients who sought care for a tick bite from May to July in 2022, 2023, and 2024 to conduct genomic sequencing, real-time-polymerase chain reaction, and indirect immunofluorescence assay. They used cell culture to isolate the virus."Yezo virus (YEZV) is an emerging tick-borne pathogen, which was initially reported in Japan in 2021," the authors noted. "Only one patient had been reported in China so far." Eighteen participants had Yezo virus infections (12 male, 6 female; median age, 53 years), and 8 were hospitalized. Symptoms included fever (100%), headache (56%), dizziness (50%), malaise (17%), low back pain (17%), cough (17%), gastrointestinal problems (50%), and neurologic issues (28%). Signs included rash (50%), abnormal lymph nodes (22%), and, among 16 patients, low levels of lymphocytes (63%) and platelets (31%).High liver transaminase levels were observed in 72% of participants, while elevated concentrations of the enzymes lactate dehydrogenase or α-hydroxybutyric dehydrogenase were seen in 50%, serum amyloid protein A in 72%, and C-reactive protein in 56%.Eight (7%) of 119 Ixodes persulcatus ticks—or taiga ticks—removed from patients tested positive for Yezo, and three strains were isolated from sera. Phylogenetic analyses showed that Yezo viruses in patients or ticks belonged to two clades with distinct mutations."YEZV should be differentiated from those with other tick-borne pathogens, which can cause similar clinical manifestations," the researchers wrote.In a related commentary, Keita Matsuno, DVM, of Hokkaido University, called for expanded surveillance: "Further studies are needed to identify currently unrecognised endemic areas of Yezo virus infections, especially in northern Europe and northern Asia, where I persulcatus ticks are widely distributed."
California scientists unlock new key to mosquito-borne disease spread -- Male mosquitoes that fail to hear potential females do not end up mating — a phenomenon that could have major implications for insect-borne disease spread, a new study has determined. The mating process for mosquitoes occurs midair and lasts for just a few seconds, after a male insect responds to the sound of a female’s wingbeats, according to the study, published on Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.When the study authors removed a single gene, called trpVA, to render the male mosquitoes deaf, they found that they had killed the insects’ libidos entirely.“You could leave them together with the females for days, and they will not mate,” senior author Craig Montell, a neurobiology professor at the University of California Santa Barbara, said in a statement.These findings, the scientists stressed, could have major effects on how people control problematic mosquito vectors like Aedes aegypti, which infect hundreds of millions of people with disease-causing viruses every year.The researchers suspected that hearing played a role in mosquito mating behavior after observing the courtship routines for Aedes aegypti — mosquitoes that spread diseases like dengue, Zika and yellow fever.Females flap their wings at around 500 Hz, after which males take off and start buzzing at about 800 Hz — rapidly modulating this frequency when the females are nearby, per the study.Following a quick midair meeting, they go their separate ways and males scout out new partners, the scientists noted. “On summer evenings, we often see swarms of mosquitoes gathered by the water or under streetlights,” co-lead author Yijin Wang, a former postdoctoral scholar at UC Santa Barbara, said in a statement.“These gatherings are essentially mass mating events,”
First CWD case in Montana's Ruby Mountains detected in elk -- An elk in Montana's Ruby Mountains has tested positive for chronic wasting disease (CWD), a first for Hunting District 322, Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks reports.In a news release, the agency said a hunter harvested the elk next to the lower Ruby Valley, which has a high prevalence of the fatal prion disease in white-tailed deer and mule deer. The Ruby Mountains are located between Madison and Beaverhead counties in the southwest part of the state."While this is the first time CWD has been detected in elk in the Ruby Mountains, it was expected to eventually occur given the presence of the disease among deer populations that use the same habitats," the release said. "It's unlikely this detection will result in changes to elk hunting regulations in this area, which already has liberal harvest regulations for elk."The agency urged hunters to help slow the spread of CWD by disposing of animal carcasses after harvesting the meat by leaving the remains at the kill site or bagging it and taking it to a Class 2 landfill. First detected in Montana's wild herds in 2017, CWD is a neurologic disease caused by misfolded infectious proteins called prions. The disease affects cervids such as deer, elk, moose, and reindeer. Prions are extremely resilient and can persist in the environment for years. The disease isn't known to infect humans, but officials recommend not eating meat from a sick animal and using precautions when field-dressing or butchering cervids.
CWD encroaches into more Wyoming deer and elk hunt areas -Hunter-harvested animals in Wyoming's Deer Hunt Areas 31 and 94 and Elk Hunt Area 126 have tested positive for chronic wasting disease (CWD) for the first time, the Wyoming Game and Fish Department confirmed yesterday. Deer Hunt Area 31 is located in the Sheridan region, which is bordered by five areas positive for CWD in mule deer (29, 19, 22, 34, and 169). Deer Hunt Area 94, in the Lander region, is bordered by areas 92, 160, 97, 96, and 131, which have also had detections in mule deer. The Casper region is home to Elk Hunt Area 126, which is bordered by seven CWD-positive elk areas (3, 7, 122, 129, 113, 123, and 117). The news release gave no information on the number of CWD-positive cervids identified in the latest detections."In 2023, Game and Fish personnel tested more than 5,000 CWD lymph node samples from deer and elk—primarily submitted by hunters—and continue to evaluate new recommendations for trying to manage the disease," the news release said. CWD is a fatal neurodegenerative disease in cervids caused called by extremely resilient misfolded proteins called prions, which can be transmitted among cervids and through environmental contamination. While CWD isn't known to infect people, the World Health Organization and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommend against eating meat from an infected animal and urge taking precautions when field-dressing or butchering cervids.
Mississippi announces new CWD detection in Marshall County deer - Mississippi yesterday reported a new chronic wasting disease (CWD) case in deer. The Mississippi Department of Wildlife, Fisheries and Parks (MDWFP) said the new case was detected last week in Marshall County, a North Mississippi CWD management zone, per WJTV. No other details were given. Mississippi has detected 321 cases of the fatal neurodegenerative disease in 16 counties since it was first identified in the state in 2018. CWD is a fatal neurodegenerative disease in cervids such as deer, moose, and elk caused by extremely resilient misfolded proteins called prions, which can be transmitted from animal to animal and through environmental contamination. While CWD isn't known to infect people, the World Health Organization and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommend against eating meat from an infected animal and urge taking precautions when field-dressing or butchering cervids.
Not the usual suspects: Research reveals novel genetic basis of pest resistance to biotech crops - If left unchecked, insect pests can devastate crops. To minimize damage and reduce the need for insecticide sprays, crops have been genetically engineered to produce bacterial proteins that kill key pests but are not harmful to people or wildlife. However, widespread planting of such transgenic crops has led to rapid adaptation by some pests. A new study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences reveals a novel genetic basis of resistance to transgenic crops in one of the most important crop pests in the United States. Researchers from the University of Arizona Department of Entomology used genomics to investigate the genetic changes causing resistance to transgenic crops in field populations of the corn earworm, also known as cotton bollworm or Helicoverpa zea. They discovered that in this voracious pest, field-evolved resistance was not associated with any of the 20 genes previously implicated in resistance to the pest-killing proteins in transgenic crops. "The corn earworm is one the world's most challenging pests in terms of its ability to quickly evolve resistance in the field to genetically engineered crops. We identified 20 genes that harbor mutations conferring resistance to pest-killing proteins based on previous work with lab-selected strains of corn earworm as well as resistant field populations and lab strains of other lepidopteran pests," said senior study author Bruce Tabashnik, head of the U of A Department of Entomology. "We call these 20 genes 'the usual suspects.' Contrary to our expectations, in seeking the culprit for field-evolved resistance of corn earworm, none of the usual suspects were guilty." To gain protection from the corn earworm and some other major caterpillar and beetle pests, crop plants have been genetically engineered to produce proteins from the common bacterium Bacillus thuringiensis, or Bt. Unlike broad-spectrum insecticides, Bt proteins are active against relatively few insect species. Whereas broad-spectrum insecticides are nerve poisons, Bt proteins can exert toxicity only if they are eaten and subsequently bind to specific gut receptors that are absent in most non-pest species, including humans. In the United States in 2024, Bt varieties accounted for 86% of the corn and 90% of the cotton planted. However, the evolution of resistance by pests such as the corn earworm has decreased the benefits of Bt crops. The corn earworm is one of the most economically significant pests in the United States, causing hundreds of millions of dollars in damage and costs annually. It attacks a wide range of crops, including corn, cotton, soybean and tomato. To analyze the genetic basis of field-evolved resistance of the corn earworm, the U of A researchers collaborated with colleagues at Texas A&M University who had used bioassays to evaluate resistance by testing insects derived from the field. "Bioassays are used routinely to determine if insects are resistant by exposing them to Bt proteins in the lab," In this innovative partnership, the insects from bioassays conducted at Texas A&M were frozen and sent to the U of A for DNA extraction and sequencing to enable scanning the entire genome for genetic differences between the resistant and susceptible corn earworm caterpillars. Including some previously sequenced specimens, the genomic analysis included 937 corn earworms from 17 sites in seven states across the southern United States, sampled from 2002 to 2020. "We carefully examined 20 genes that affected how pests responded to Bt proteins in previous studies. Our evidence indicates changes in these genes are not causing resistance to Bt crops in wild populations of the corn earworm," "Instead, we found resistance was associated with a cluster of genes that was duplicated in some resistant field populations. But it remains a mystery as to how many of these genes contribute to resistance and how they confer resistance." Despite not narrowing the cause of resistance to a single gene, researchers say the study provides an important reminder that the genetic basis of resistance can differ between the field and the lab. This is a critical caveat for developing tools to monitor resistance in the field. The results also demonstrate how bioassays can be used with genomic analyses.
Invasive species posing 'immediate threat' found in California, a first in North America An invasive mussel that poses a significant threat to other bivalves and the health of statewide water conveyances has been detected for the first time in North America in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, according to the California Department of Fish and Wildlife. Golden mussels were recently discovered in the Port of Stockton by wildlife officials and may have also infiltrated Merced County. Genetic testing is underway to see if the discovery at O'Neill Forebay in Merced County was golden mussels. "The species poses a significant immediate threat to the ecological health of the Delta and all waters of the state, water conveyance systems, infrastructure and water quality," the Department of Fish and Wildlife said Thursday in a news release. Native to China and Southeast Asia, golden mussels proliferated across South America while posing problems similar to other invasive mussels. They clogged pipes and altered the food web, according to the University of Wisconsin. The presence of golden mussels has resulted in diminished water quality, wildlife officials said. The bivalves most likely invaded California through a ship traveling from an international port. It could soon spread from the California Delta through freshwater bodies across the United States, wildlife officials said. Residents should clean, drain and dry water equipment to prevent their spread, the release said. Wildlife officials are also inspecting boats at O'Neill Forebay. Organisms suspected to be golden mussels should be reported to the Department of Fish and Wildlife's invasive species program. People are asked to include the specific location it was found, at least one photo of the animal and contact information.
Freshwater jellyfish sightings rise in Canadian lakes - As a lake researcher, I have in recent years had quite a few people ask me whether jellyfish really do live in lakes. Some people think they are seeing things, or that their friends or family are. I've even heard of marital spats over the issue. So, are jellyfish present in Canadian freshwater lakes or not? Yes, jellyfish do exist in lakes here in Canada. These organisms are related to saltwater jellyfish (Cnidaria), only much smaller. The reasons why more people are suddenly becoming aware of these creatures is simply due to their growing numbers—numbers that are on the rise due to climate change. The bottom line is that freshwater jellyfish are real, and Canadians need to get used to their growing presence in our lakes as the planet warms. Currently, the most observed genus in many parts of the world, including Canada, is Craspedacusta, with the most common species being Craspedacusta sowerbii. Some have given it the common name of Peach Blossom Jellyfish. In French, it is simply known as the "méduse d'eau douce".This species of freshwater jellyfish was first described and scientifically named in 1880 at the Royal Botanical Gardens in London. They are an introduced species outside of their native China and have been observed on all continents except Antarctica. These jellyfish are not able to sting humans—so no need to worry about encountering them while swimming. They are somewhere between one to two-and-a-half centimeters in diameter and mostly transparent. They can be very abundant when their "blooms" occur, appearing in the hundreds to thousands. However, these blooms typically only last about a week or two—just long enough for them to carry out sexual reproduction.Freshwater jellyfish have been around some lakes in southern Canada for a long time. The earliest reported detection that we know of was in a Québec lake in 1938. So why are we only hearing more about them now? There are a couple of main reasons.The Peach Blossom Jellyfish spends most of its life cycle as a tiny polyp about one to two millimeters in length. A population of polyps can survive for years in this asexual phase, reproducing by budding.In this form, they live attached to vegetation, rocks and other surfaces near the bottom of lakes and are hard to see. They feed on other passing organisms; mainly small crustaceans called zooplankton and particularly those that live near the edges of lakes. During periods when the environment is colder with less abundant food, they enter a dormant phase called a podocyst.But it is sightings of the larger bell-shaped gelatinous forms, typical of the marine jellyfish we all know (and try to avoid when swimming), that are being increasingly reported. What is the connection?The mature form of the Peach Blossom Jellyfish is only produced under the right environmental conditions. A critical trigger appears to be warm temperatures. When water temperatures exceed 25 C, fully grown jellyfish can suddenly appear in large quantities.The species has already been living there as polyp, maybe for years, and suddenly ghost-like jellyfish appear as if out of nowhere, forming abundant blooms in a lakeIt is thought that the first observation of the most common freshwater jellyfish resulted from imported Chinese plants in the Royal Botanical Gardens; plants to which polyps or their dormant forms could easily have been attached. This is a typical way in which aquatic invasive species get moved around the planet.
Heat, Air Pollution, Disease: How Climate Change Affects Health -- Record-breaking heat, extreme weather events, air pollution and the spread of infectious disease: climate change poses an already vast yet rising threat to the health of humans around the world, experts warn. The latest round of UN climate talks begin next week during what is expected to be the hottest year in recorded history - and in the shadow of climate sceptic Donald Trump's re-election as US president. The COP29 negotiations will be held in Azerbaijan as the world continues to emit increasing levels of planet-heating fossil fuels, even as many nations have been lashed by devastating floods, droughts, heatwaves and storms. “Climate change is making us sick, and urgent action is a matter of life and death,” the World Health Organization warned this week. The EU's climate monitor said this week that 2024 is“virtually certain” to surpass last year to become the hottest year in recorded history. It is also expected to be the first year that is more than 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average. Out of 15 ways that climate change impacts health being tracked by experts as part of The Lancet Countdown, 10 have now “reached concerning new records”, according to the group's latest report. The number of over-65s who died from heat has risen by 167 percent since the 1990s, just one of the recent all-time highs, the report said. Extreme heat leads to numerous health risks such as kidney disorders, strokes, adverse pregnancy outcomes, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, organ failure and ultimately death. Jeni Miller, executive director of the Global Climate and Health Alliance, said“this year has underlined the growing impacts of a warming climate on people's health and wellbeing”. She pointed to extreme heat leading to 700 deaths and more than 40,000 cases of heat stroke in India,“climate-exacerbated” rains causing a dam to collapse in Nigeria killing 320, and 48 out of 50 US states“experiencing moderate or worse drought”. Spain is meanwhile still recovering from its deadliest floods in a generation, while parts of the United States and Cuba are picking up the pieces after recent hurricanes. Droughts, floods and other extreme weather events are also expected to hit global crops, leading to rising hunger in many regions. Almost all - 99 percent - of the world's population breathes air that exceeds the World Health Organization's guidelines for air pollution. This pollution has been found to increase the risk of respiratory diseases, strokes, heart disease, lung cancer, diabetes and other health problems, posing a threat that has been compared to tobacco. Almost seven million premature deaths a year are linked to air pollution, according to the WHO. Just last week, Pakistan's second-biggest city Lahore recorded air pollution at 40 times the level deemed acceptable by the WHO. In better news, the Lancet Countdown report found that deaths from fossil fuel-related air pollution fell by nearly seven percent from 2016 to 2021, mainly due to efforts to reduce pollution from burning coal. The changing climate means that mosquitoes, birds and mammals will roam beyond their previous habitats, raising the threat that they could spread infectious diseases with them. Dengue, chikungunya, Zika, West Nile virus and malaria are all mosquito-borne diseases that could spread wider in a warming world. The transmission risk of one dengue-spreading mosquito has risen by 43 percent over the last 60 years, according to the Lancet Countdown. A new global record of over five million dengue cases was recorded last year. Storms and floods create stagnant water that are breeding grounds for mosquitoes, and also increase the risk of water-borne diseases such as cholera, typhoid and diarrhoea.
Rising hunger predicted across 16 global hotspots - (UN Press Conference video) Food insecurity in 16 global regions, spanning 14 countries and two regional clusters, is expected to intensify from November 2024 through May 2025, according to a recent UN report. A recent FAO-WFP report projects that during the outlook period from November 2024 to May 2025, acute food insecurity will likely worsen in 16 hunger hotspots, which include 14 nations and two regional clusters of eight countries. The areas at the highest alert levels include Sudan, Palestine, South Sudan, Haiti, and Mali. Other affected areas with high alert levels include Chad, Lebanon, Myanmar, Mozambique, Nigeria, the Syrian Arab Republic, and Yemen. Since May 2024, Kenya, Lesotho, Namibia, Niger, Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Malawi, Somalia, Zambia, and Zimbabwe have been categorized as hotspots with a high alert level. The total number of people facing acute food insecurity across these regions is nearly 170 million. This includes 31.8 million in Nigeria, 21.1 million in Sudan, 19 million in Yemen, 15.8 million in Ethiopia, 13.3 million in Myanmar, 12.9 million in the Syrian Arab Republic, 7.1 million in South Sudan, 6 million in Zimbabwe, 5.8 million in Zambia, 5.7 million in Malawi, 5.5 million in Haiti, 4.4 million in Somalia and 3.8 million in Chad. The report gives country-specific recommendations for immediate emergency responses and preventive steps to address basic human needs and develop short-term measures before new crises emerge. It focuses on the most severe and worsening acute hunger situations. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP) warn in the report that acute food insecurity is expected to worsen. “The situation in the five hunger hotspots of highest concern is catastrophic. People are experiencing an extreme lack of food and face unprecedented, prolonged starvation fueled by escalating conflicts, climate crises, and economic shocks,” said QU Dongyu, FAO Director-General. Dongyu also said that a truce is urgently needed to prevent acute starvation and malnutrition, alongside efforts to restore access to nutritious food and revive local food production. However, these measures alone are insufficient; long-term stability and food security are essential. According to the FAO Director General for food security, peace is crucial, as farmers need a stable environment to grow, harvest, and maintain their livelihoods. Access to nutritious food is recognized not only as a basic need but as a fundamental human right. “Worldwide, conflicts are escalating, economic instability is rising, and climate disasters are becoming the new norm. With more effective political and financial support, humanitarians can and will continue to implement proven, scalable solutions to address hunger and reduce needs over the long term,” said Cindy McCain, WFP Executive Director. McCain added that world leaders must step up and collaborate with the organization to help millions of people suffering from starvation. The upcoming La Niña weather pattern, expected to affect global climates from November 2024 to March 2025, will likely worsen existing food challenges. Although some areas may see improved agricultural conditions, La Niña could cause severe floods in Nigeria and South Sudan and dry conditions in Somalia, Kenya, and Ethiopia. These extreme weather events jeopardize already vulnerable food systems, putting millions at risk of starvation.
Climate change is drying out the US West, even when rain pours: Study --Climate change-induced warming is drying out the American West by not only reducing precipitation, but also by accelerating evaporation — even amid adequate rainfall, a new study has found. Evaporation accounted for 61 percent of the region’s drought severity from 2020 to 2022, while reduced precipitation was responsible for just 39 percent of these conditions, according to the study, published Wednesday in Science Advances.Historically, drought in the U.S. West was driven by a lack of rainfall, while evaporative demand — the amount of water that the atmosphere can absorb from the Earth’s surface — has only played a small role, the study authors noted.But climate change caused by burning fossil fuels has brought about higher average atmospheric temperatures and has increased the contributions of evaporation to drought severity, the researchers explained. “For generations, drought has been associated with drier-than-normal weather,” co-author Veva Deheza, executive director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Integrated Drought Information System, said in a statement.“This study further confirms we’ve entered a new paradigm where rising temperatures are leading to intense droughts, with precipitation as a secondary factor,” Deheza added.To explore the impacts of higher temperatures on drought, the researchers separated “natural,” weather-driven droughts from those they attributed to climate change across a 70-year period.They found that climate change was responsible for 80 percent of the surge in evaporative demand since 2000 and that during drought periods, this figure rose to more than 90 percent.Climate change, they concluded, has been “the single biggest driver increasing drought severity and expansion of drought area since 2000.” Since the turn of the century, about 66 percent of the historical and emerging drought-prone areas had high evaporative demand that could alone cause drought — regardless of precipitation status, according to the study.Prior to the year 2000, the same could only be said for 26 percent of that region, the researchers noted.
Record number of states facing drought conditions --The U.S. has droughts in every state except Alaska and Kentucky — the greatest number in history, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.According to the tracker, just more than 45 percent of the U.S. and Puerto Rico and about 54 percent of the lower 48 states are in drought this week.The 48 states experiencing moderate drought or worse this week is an increase of two states since last week and three since last month, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. This is up 71.8 percent since last month and 8.1 percent since last week.More than 150 million people in the country and 149.8 million in the lower 48 states are affected by drought this week, a 34.4 percent increase since last week and a 153.5 percent increase since last month.More than 318 million acres of crops in the country are experiencing drought conditions, the tracker showed. While this doesn’t reflect any increase since last week, it is a 57.1 percent uptick since last month, the monitor showed.This comes as an October report revealed that the world’s water cycle — the movement of water between the Earth and atmosphere, such as water evaporation and precipitation — is out of balance “for the first time in human history.”The Global Commission on the Economics of Water, which is made up of global experts, attributed the imbalance to “decades of collective mismanagement and undervaluation of water.”The report had said that food systems are running out of fresh water and cities are sinking as aquifers beneath them dry up. More than half of the world’s food production is in an area where water supplies are expected to decrease, the report noted.
Delaware River Basin Commission Calls For Efficient Water Use; Sets Nov. 19 Hearing On Declaring A Water Supply Emergency - On November 6, Delaware River Basin Commission Executive Director Steve Tambini announced a special hearing to be held on November 19 at 1:30 p.m. for the Commission to accept public input on the persistent dry conditions throughout the Delaware River Basin and how to address them. The purpose of the hearing, which will be held virtually, is to seek input from interested parties as the Commission considers declaring a “water supply emergency” if conditions worsen. A special DRBC business meeting on the issue will be set on or after November 21. “Many areas in the Delaware River Basin continue to experience significantly below-normal precipitation with resulting effects on streamflows, groundwater levels and reservoir storage,” said Tambini. “These conditions have already prompted the states of New Jersey, New York, Delaware and Pennsylvania to declare drought watches or warnings in most or all of the counties that lie within the Basin.” Beginning in October, low flows in the Delaware River prompted the DRBC to direct releases of stored water from a federal reservoir, Beltzville (Carbon County., Pa.) to meet the minimum flow objective for the river at Trenton, N.J. “As of 8 a.m. today, approximately 1.12 billion gallons (BG) of water has been released from Beltzville Reservoir to meet the Trenton Flow Objective,” said Amy Shallcross, DRBC’s Water Resource Operations Manager. An additional source of water in the lower basin that is available for use to meet the Trenton Flow Objective is Blue Marsh Reservoir (Berks Co., Pa.). The purpose of the Trenton Flow Objective is to control the “salt front” in the tidal Delaware River. Freshwater is needed to keep salty or brackish water from advancing up the Delaware Bay during low-flow conditions and reaching drinking water intakes for Philadelphia and New Jersey communities, and industrial intakes along the river. “The salt front is currently 17 river miles upstream from its normal location for this time of year despite the reservoir releases,” said Shallcross. “If more water is needed to address salt front management, we expect continued decreases in reservoir storage and additional drought risks.” Unless precipitation trends change in the near term, initial drought management actions are reductions in flow objectives for the main stem Delaware River and out-of-basin diversions to conserve reservoir storage. In a drought emergency, the drought plan gives the DRBC the authority to call for releases from additional reservoirs to increase river flow. The Basinwide drought management plan is based on the amount of combined storage in the three New York City reservoirs, the largest in the Delaware River Basin. As of 8:00 a.m. November 6, the combined storage in NYC’s Delaware River Basin reservoirs is currently 38 billion gallons above the level that initiates a drought watch.
'The nastiest soils on Earth' are getting recognized as a bigger problem -Acid sulfate soils are characterized by their orange hue and their tendency to kill surrounding vegetation and fish. Anders Johnson's extensive research along Sweden's coastline reveals the widespread presence of these soils, underscoring their significant impact on water quality and ecosystem health. As human activities accelerate the emergence of new acid sulfate soils, it becomes crucial to understand the roles that geochemistry and microbiology play in this process to find effective mitigation strategies. A new doctoral thesis provides valuable insights into the microbiology of acid sulfate soils, sometimes dubbed "the nastiest soils on Earth" because of the threat they pose to ecosystems. Acid sulfate soils become active when sulfide-rich sediments, typically found in current or historical coastal areas, are exposed to oxygen either by natural or human activity. This triggers chemical reactions, sped up by the resident microbial communities, that lower the soil pH and release harmful acids and metals. "When these areas experience a rainfall or snowmelt, the accumulated acid and dissolved metals are washed into nearby water bodies, potentially killing plants and fish given high enough concentrations," says Johnson, researcher and Doctor in Ecology at Linnaeus University. While these soils release various heavy metals, aluminum is one to note. High concentrations of aluminum in waterways leads to fish kills, as the metal binds to the gills of fish and prevents them from getting oxygen from the water. A major fish kill in northern Sweden was directly attributed to acid and metals released from acid sulfate soils. Additionally, some wetlands around Kalmar recently experienced unexplained fish kills that could possibly be linked to acid sulfate soils that we have identified nearby. Johnson's dissertation is based on research along Sweden's 2000-kilometer coastline. Sweden and Finland have the highest presence of boreal acid sulfate soils in the world. A report from Finland in 2002 found that acid sulfate soils account for more acid and metals released into the environment than all Finnish industry. The extent of these soils in Sweden is still not fully known, but Johnson's doctoral thesis provides valuable knowledge. Researchers have known about large areas of these soils in northern Sweden. This research, which covers Sweden's 2000-kilometer coastline, has now expanded those known areas into southern Sweden as well. "And while the field sizes of acid sulfate soils are generally smaller in southern Sweden, they have the tendency to become more acidic and release more acid and metals into the environment," says Johnson. The sulfate-rich sediments that can turn into acid sulfate soils do so when they are exposed to oxygen by draining and drying. The process has become more frequent and will be an even bigger problem in the future because of human activities, Johnson explains. "Acid sulfate soils in Sweden will become a much bigger problem as droughts become more frequent and as wetlands are drained for agriculture,"
Rapidly shrinking Salton Sea raises toxic dust concerns for nearby communities, California The Salton Sea, California’s largest inland lake, is receding faster than anticipated, primarily due to water diversions from the Colorado River to urban areas like San Diego. A recent study led by Ryan Sinclair of Loma Linda University, involving community scientists and balloon mapping techniques, has documented shoreline changes, revealing that toxic dust levels could further deteriorate air quality for nearby residents. Since the end of mitigating water inflows in 2017 and, more recently, due to intensified water reallocation policies in 2018, the lake’s shoreline is retreating at an accelerated rate, particularly impacting its North Shore. This has created significant dust issues, as toxins such as arsenic, selenium, and pesticide residues from agricultural runoff are now airborne, raising serious health concerns for surrounding communities. The Salton Sea, California’s largest inland lake, has receded quicker than expected. As more lakebeds are exposed, the dry, poisonous dust thrown into the atmosphere exacerbates the bad air quality in the neighboring areas. According to the most recent research, the Salton Sea’s shoreline retreated by an alarming 300 m (984 feet) in the north and 160 m (525 feet) in the south between 2002 and 2020, with an accelerated pace of recession after 2017. “This research was a direct response to a request from the community, which wanted to be involved in impactful research questions to understand shoreline reduction,” said Ryan Sinclair, PhD, MPH, associate professor of environmental microbiology at Loma Linda University School of Public Health and primary investigator of the study. “The community wants to be able to live next to a Salton Sea that they’re proud of.” These changes have resulted in increased levels of PM10, a harmful particulate matter linked to respiratory diseases, particularly asthma, which is becoming more prevalent among the local population.
Nevada lithium mine will crush rare plant habitat US said is critical to its survival, lawsuit says - (AP) — Conservationists and an advocacy group for Native Americans are suing the U.S. to try to block a Nevada lithium mine they say will drive an endangered desert wildflower to extinction, disrupt groundwater flows and threaten cultural resources. The Center for Biological Diversity promised the court battle a week ago when the U.S. Interior Department approved Ioneer Ltd.’s Rhyolite Ridge lithium-boron mine at the only place Tiehm’s buckwheat is known to exist in the world, near the California line halfway between Reno and Las Vegas. It is the latest in a series of legal fights over projects President Joe Biden’s administration is pushing under his clean energy agenda intended to cut reliance on fossil fuels, in part by increasing the production of lithium to make electric vehicle batteries and solar panels. The new lawsuit says the Interior Department’s approval of the mine marks a dramatic about-face by U.S wildlife experts who warned nearly two years ago that Tiehm’s buckwheat was “in danger of extinction now” when they listed it as an endangered species in December 2022. “One cannot save the planet from climate change while simultaneously destroying biodiversity,” said Fermina Stevens, director of the Western Shoshone Defense Project, which joined the center in the lawsuit filed Thursday in federal court in Reno. “The use of minerals, whether for EVs or solar panels, does not justify this disregard for Indigenous cultural areas and keystone environmental laws,” said John Hadder, director of the Great Basin Resource Watch, another co-plaintiff. Rita Henderson, spokeswoman for Interior’s Bureau of Land Management in Reno, said Friday the agency had no immediate comment. Ioneer Vice President Chad Yeftich said the Australia-based mining company intends to intervene on behalf of the U.S. and “vigorously defend” approval of the project, “which was based on its careful and thorough permitting process.” “We are confident that the BLM will prevail,” Yeftich said. He added that he doesn’t expect the lawsuit will postpone plans to begin construction next year. The lawsuit says the mine will harm sites sacred to the Western Shoshone people. That includes Cave Spring, a natural spring less than a mile (1.6 kilometers) away described as “a site of intergenerational transmission of cultural and spiritual knowledge.” But it centers on alleged violations of the Endangered Species Act. It details the Fish and Wildlife Service’s departure from the dire picture it painted earlier of threats to the 6-inch-tall (15-centimeter-tall) wildflower with cream or yellow blooms bordering the open-pit mine Ioneer plans to dig three times as deep as the length of a football field. The mine’s permit anticipates up to one-fifth of the nearly 1.5 square miles (3.6 square kilometers) the agency designated as critical habitat surrounding the plants — home to various pollinators important to their survival — would be lost for decades, some permanently. When proposing protection of the 910 acres (368 hectares) of critical habitat, the service said “this unit is essential to the conservation and recovery of Tiehm’s buckwheat.” The agency formalized the designation when it listed the plant in December 2022, dismissing the alternative of less-stringent threatened status. “We find that a threatened species status is not appropriate because the threats are severe and imminent, and Tiehm’s buckwheat is in danger of extinction now, as opposed to likely to become endangered in the future,” the agency concluded.
Storms and tornadoes sweep through Oklahoma injuring at least 11 and leaving 95 000 without power – (4 videos, including 1:30 and 3:30) Severe weather swept through Oklahoma in the early hours of Sunday, November 3, 2024. Several tornadoes were reported, including one in the Valley Brook area that received a preliminary EF-2 rating and another in Harrah estimated at EF-3. At least 11 people were injured in areas around Oklahoma City. Numerous homes were destroyed, and approximately 95 000 customers across the state experienced power outages. Heavy rainfall was recorded across the region, prompting authorities to issue flash flood warnings for parts of the state. Severe storms swept through Oklahoma during the early hours of Sunday, with multiple tornadoes reported across the region. According to Oklahoma City Police Department Captain Valerie Littlejohn, the severe weather injured at least six people and caused widespread damage across Oklahoma City. The number of injured people later rose to 11. Several power lines were damaged, resulting in power outages affecting 95 000 customers across Oklahoma. Numerous homes sustained damage, with some losing their roofs. Gas lines and vehicles were also damaged by the severe weather, which brought down multiple trees. According to NWS Norman, one of the reported tornadoes received a preliminary rating of EF-2 due to the damage it caused in the Valley Brook area, part of the Oklahoma City Metropolitan Area. The tornado caused significant damage across the area, several homes were completely ripped apart, some had their roofs torn off and several vehicles were also overturned in the area. A tornado that tore through the Harrah neighborhood ripped apart several homes and damaged several vehicles across the area. Initial reports mentioned at least EF-3 damage. In the town of Choctaw, located just outside Oklahoma City, authorities reported that a tornado struck one neighborhood shortly after midnight. Firefighters and police officers went door-to-door to check for injuries, and officials opened an elementary school gym as a shelter, according to the Choctaw Police Department. The Oklahoma Department of Emergency Management reported flooding in some areas and confirmed that one house caught fire after being struck by lightning. The Oklahoma Heart Hospital South also sustained damage. The Oklahoma Fire Department rescued two people from an overturned mobile home. At the University of Oklahoma, school officials urged students and staff to seek shelter and move to the lowest floor as storms approached the campus after midnight. The National Weather Service (NWS) office in Norman also issued urgent warnings, posting on social media, “If you’re in the path of this storm, take cover immediately!” The National Weather Service (NWS) issued a Tornado Watch on Sunday morning for parts of Oklahoma and Texas, set to expire at 09:00 local time (LT). According to the NWS, a severe thunderstorm with a tornado moving through eastern Oklahoma City toward Midwest City and Tinker Air Force Base was reported shortly before 01:30 LT. As of 10:24 LT, several parts of Oklahoma recorded 50 – 100 mm (2 – 4 inches) of rainfall, with regions near the Oklahoma City metro area recording 100 – 150 mm (4 – 6 inches) of rain. Parts of Oklahoma remain at risk for additional heavy rainfall and thunderstorms later on Sunday. According to the NWS, flash floods are likely with continuing storms on Sunday afternoon, particularly just southeast of Oklahoma City. A flash flood warning is in effect for Coal, Johnston, and Pontotoc till 13:00 LT on Sunday.
Severe storms spawn tornadoes and flooding across Arkansas and Oklahoma - (4 damage videos) A severe line of storms produced multiple tornadoes and widespread flooding across Northwest Arkansas and Northeast Oklahoma on November 4, 2024. The storms primarily impacted cities such as Little Flock, Siloam Springs, and Oklahoma City, causing significant damage to homes and infrastructure. The severe weather outbreak began late Saturday night and intensified into early Sunday morning, leading to 11 injuries and extensive property destruction. Meteorologists attributed the severe conditions to a combination of atmospheric instability, a moisture influx, and the clash of warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico with cooler, drier air, facilitating the formation of supercells capable of producing tornadoes. Emergency response teams were mobilized to assist those affected and manage the aftermath. The storms, which began late Saturday night, November 2, and continued into early Sunday morning, November 3, were part of a severe weather outbreak that has persisted for three consecutive days across the central and southern United States. There were three confirmed tornadoes in the Arkansas area. One touched down in Adair County, west of Siloam Springs. Another occurred south of Siloam Springs along Highway 59. The third tornado struck the Little Flock area around 16:50 LT in Benton County. According to reports, at least one tornado was rated EF-3, while others were classed as EF-2. Along with tornadoes, the storms caused flash flooding, toppled trees, and fell power lines, leaving people without power and triggering emergency declarations in many counties. The National Weather Service (NWS) office in Norman, Oklahoma, reported that forecasters believe at least seven tornadoes touched down across the region, with estimates potentially rising to 12 or 13. Injuries to at least 11 individuals were reported, along with extensive damage to homes and various properties. Officials in Oklahoma City reported that 39 structures had been destroyed. Furthermore, 43 buildings suffered significant damage, while 54 others experienced minor damage. First responders were quickly mobilized to search for those trapped in debris and to assist those affected. Over 30 000 customers in Oklahoma and Texas were without electricity on Sunday afternoon. Specifically, according to city officials, around 5 000 residents in Oklahoma City were impacted by power outages. On Sunday, Governor Kevin Stitt declared a state of emergency for Cleveland, Garvin, Lincoln, McClain, Oklahoma, and Stephens counties in response to the tornadoes, straight-line winds, and flooding caused by the storms that began on Saturday. Southbound lanes of I-44 to I-40 west in Oklahoma County are closed due to flooding. Southeast 29th Street between Indian Meridian and Peebly, Peebly between Reno and Southeast 29th Street, 50th Street between Dobbs and Harrah Road, and Harrah Road between Northeast 63rd and Northeast 50th Street are closed. All east and westbound lanes of US-62 and Northeast 23rd Street are shut down between Peebly Road and the Kickapoo Turnpike due to storm damage. Additionally, southbound I-35 is reduced to one lane from I-44 to Northeast 50th Street due to a crash, while northbound I-35 is also limited to one lane at Northeast 50th Street as a result of flooding. Locations like Choctaw and Newcastle in Oklahoma also experienced tornado touchdowns and related damage. According to the Choctaw Police Department, a tornado struck the Railhead Estates addition in Choctaw, causing considerable damage to homes in the vicinity. In Newcastle, the tornado also caused damage to Newcastle Elementary School, tearing the roof off the fourth and fifth grade center as well as the gymnasium. The geographical terrain, with its mixture of urban areas and rural landscapes, influenced how the storms impacted different communities. On Monday, severe thunderstorms continued to pose a threat as another line of storms approached eastern Oklahoma and northern Texas, prompting the NWS to issue warnings for additional tornado activity. A level 3 out of 5 threat for severe thunderstorms was established, signaling the potential for strong tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. Local emergency responders quickly mobilized to assist those trapped in damaged homes and businesses. First responders rescued two individuals from an overturned mobile home, and several others were safely helped. Emergency response teams, including local fire departments and the National Guard, were mobilized to help with rescue efforts and clear debris from highways to restore access to emergency services. Local disaster management officials, including the Oklahoma Department of Disaster Management and the National Weather Service, closely monitor the situation and coordinate responses.
Flash flooding blamed for 5 deaths in Missouri, including 2 poll workers (AP) — A couple in their 70s who served as election poll workers were among at least five people killed in Missouri after torrential rains caused flash flooding across the state. Up to 8 inches (20 centimeters) of rain fell over two days in parts of Missouri, leading to widespread flooding and dozens of water rescues. It was part of a storm system that also spawned tornadoes in Oklahoma and Arkansas. In Wright County, Missouri, a county of about 19,000 residents 210 miles (340 kilometers) southeast of Kansas City, a 70-year-old man and 73-year-old woman were in a vehicle swept away by flooding at Beaver Creek around 4:30 a.m. Tuesday, the state patrol said. The bodies of the couple from Manes, Missouri, were found more than four hours later. Wright County Clerk Loni Pedersen confirmed that both of the people who died were poll workers. “This is a tragic loss for Wright County,” Pedersen said in an email. “They were dedicated citizens who valued fair and honest elections.” Three people in two other cars swept away by the fast-rising creek were able to swim to safety, the patrol said. Two other deaths were reported in St. Louis County. Firefighters were called Tuesday morning after a submerged SUV was spotted near flooded Gravois Creek, near Interstate 55. Crews broke through the sunroof and pulled out a woman, who was pronounced dead, Lemay Fire Protection District spokesperson Jason Brice said. Hours later, a man’s body was found in the same flooded creek, Brice said. Authorities were investigating how the body got there. Fire crews rescued 10 other people from flooded vehicles, Brice said. On Monday, Missouri state troopers recovered a 66-year-old man’s body after a car was swept off a bridge in Ironton, about 90 miles (145 kilometers) south of St. Louis. The National Weather Service said four likely tornadoes, and possibly more, touched down in parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas on Monday. There were no reports of deaths or injuries from the tornadoes. Keli Cain, spokesperson for the Oklahoma Department of Emergency Management, said assessments of the damage were underway. The storms struck a day after tornadoes injured at least 11 people in the Oklahoma City area in central Oklahoma. Cain said the department worked with the Oklahoma State Election Board to ensure that polling places were not disrupted.
New Mexico governor declares emergency as western winter storm leaves thousands without power (AP) — New Mexico’s governor declared an emergency Thursday after a powerful winter storm left tens of thousands of people without power as heavy snow, fierce winds and freezing temperatures marched across the northern two-thirds of the state and into Colorado. Dozens of crews with Public Service Co. of New Mexico were mobilized to address widespread outages that had been reported overnight and in the early morning hours from Albuquerque to Santa Fe and beyond as the snow brought tree branches crashing down onto power lines. The utility acknowledged frustrations and urged residents to be patient, saying there were about 19,000 people still affected by the outages Thursday evening. That was down from 50,000 earlier in the day. “This really is an unprecedented storm in the fact that it came so earlier and so heavily while leaves were still on the trees. That has caused limbs to be much heavier that they would normally be,” PNM spokesman Jeff Buell said, adding that crews were dealing with hundreds of separate repair jobs in Albuquerque alone. With more snow in the forecast, Buell said there could be additional outages into Friday. Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham’s declaration unlocks state funding for emergency response efforts. Funding also will be funneled to the New Mexico National Guard, which has been helping to clear roads. Schools in Santa Fe, Los Alamos and elsewhere across northern New Mexico canceled classes, while authorities warned people to stay off the roads. Plows were busy trying to keep major highways clear, but state police announced midday that Interstate 25 just south of the Colorado border was closed in both directions. The National Weather Service in Albuquerque issued a blizzard warning for parts of the state and reported that more than 100 vehicles were stranded on highways in the state’s northeast corner. Forecasters warned of “very dangerous driving conditions” that were made worse by low visibility because of blowing snow. Interstate 70 across Colorado’s Eastern Plains also was closed, as residents in that state braced for what some said could be the biggest snowstorm to hit the Denver area in November in years. Some people reported Thursday that they already had more than 14 inches (35.56 centimeters) of snow on the ground. The National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center said extensive and widespread disruptions could be expected as the storm moves through New Mexico and Colorado, dropping between 1 and 2 inches (5 centimeters) of snow within an hour in some spots. Tonja Goode Ross said she would be staying home and enjoying a cup of hot chocolate instead of trying to brave what was the “first real snow” of the season for Corona. This rural part of central New Mexico was turned into a winter wonderland, its pastures covered by a thick blanket of snow and its tree branches bowing from the weight of fresh powder. Almost a foot (30.48 centimeters) of snow had fallen by early morning and another 2.5 inches (6.35 centimeters) fell within a 2-hour period. “Moisture is always a blessing here — no matter the form it comes in,” she said. The weather service warned that the storm could bring historic amounts of snow through Friday. More than 4 feet (1.22 meter) was expected in some parts. Snow drifts could top 6 feet (1.83 meter), making some travel impossible — potentially for days, forecasters said. In Albuquerque, city officials said the frigid temperatures and snowfall resulted in about 120 traffic crashes while the fire department answered more than 100 calls related to downed power lines and fallen trees.
Impossible travel, near blizzard conditions, and historic snowfall totals expected in parts of New Mexico and Colorado - A severe winter storm impacting parts of Colorado and New Mexico is expected to bring additional heavy snowfall on Friday, November 8, 2024. Parts of the area had already accumulated 25 – 50 cm (10 – 20 inches) of snow by Thursday night, November 7, prompting the Colorado governor to declare a disaster emergency for what could be Denver’s most severe snowstorm in 30 years. Snowfall rates of 2.5 – 5 cm per hour (1 – 2 inches per hour) are anticipated to continue across the region, with total snow accumulations forecast to reach 30 – 120 cm (1 – 4 feet) in some areas. Impossible travel, near blizzard conditions, and historic snowfall totals expected in New Mexico and Colorado
- Heavy snowfall rates of 25 – 50 mm per hour (1 – 2 inches per hour) will continue through tonight across northeast New Mexico and eastern Colorado, with additional accumulations of 30 – 60 cm (1 – 2 feet) expected in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Raton Mesa, and surrounding areas.
- Historic snowfall totals of 90 – 120 cm (3 – 4 feet) are anticipated in parts of the Raton Mesa and Palmer Divide regions.
- Near-blizzard conditions will affect major highways, including the I-25 and I-70 corridors, resulting in low visibility, snow-covered roads, and prolonged closures; travel is not recommended.
- Strong winds and heavy snow are likely to cause scattered power outages and tree damage, impacting infrastructure in affected areas.
A severe winter storm affecting northeast New Mexico and eastern Colorado is forecast to continue producing snowfall rates of 2.5 – 5 cm per hour (1-2 inches per hour) through late Friday, November 8, with additional accumulations predicted between 30 – 60 cm (1 – 2 feet) in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Raton Mesa, and nearby foothills. In localized areas within the Raton Mesa and Palmer Divide, total storm accumulation may reach historic 90 – 120 cm (3 – 4 feet), according to the NWS Weather Prediction Center. Snow is projected to taper off gradually by early Saturday, November 9. Strong wind gusts combined with heavy snowfall will likely create near-blizzard conditions across several major highways, including the I-25 and I-70 corridors. These conditions are expected to lead to snow-covered roads, severely reduced visibility and prolonged road closures. Officials advise against travel in these areas due to nearly impossible driving conditions in some locations. The weight of heavy snow, intensified by strong winds, is forecasted to result in scattered power outages and tree damage across the region, with potential impacts on infrastructure. Utility and transportation crews are preparing for extended road-clearing operations and service restoration where power outages and infrastructure damage may occur. Denver, Colorado is currently experiencing what could be its largest November storm since 1994. Snowfall began affecting the region on Tuesday, November 5, starting at around 17:00 local time (LT) and continued until midday on Thursday. Denver International Airport received 38 hours of steady snowfall between Tuesday and Thursday but heavy snowfall is forecast to affect the region again from Friday morning, lasting through midday Saturday. The region is expected to see over 41 cm (16 inches) of accumulated snowfall by Saturday. Lincoln, Elbert, and Washington counties recorded between 25 – 50 cm (10 – 20 inches) of snow as of Thursday night. The Conifer area recorded approximately 52 cm (20 inches) in 24 hours from Tuesday evening to Wednesday, November 6, while the Elizabeth area reported 43 cm (17 inches) in the same period.
Extreme hailstorms turn Saudi desert into rare winter wonderland, Saudi Arabia - (twitter videos) Extreme hailstorms and heavy rain have transformed parts of Saudi Arabia’s desert landscape into a winter-like scene over the past couple of days, with snow-like hail accumulation primarily affecting regions such as Al-Jawf, the Northern Borders, Riya This unusual weather event began last Wednesday, October 30, 2024 and continued through the weekend, prompting weather warnings that extend through Monday, November 4. Meteorologists attribute the hailstorms to a low-pressure system from the Arabian Sea, which brought moisture-laden air to the region, resulting in severe thunderstorms, flooding, and significant temperature drops. Saudi Arabia is experiencing an unusual bout of extreme hail storms and heavy rain, turning its typically arid landscapes into scenes resembling winter snowfall. The Kingdom’s Directorate-General of Civil Defense (DGCD) and the National Center of Meteorology (NCM) have issued warnings, encouraging residents to take appropriate measures. The most severe effects have been observed in Al-Jawf, the Northern Borders, Riyadh, and the Mecca region, with snow-like hail blanketing the hilly hills of Al-Jawf. The strange weather has also affected Asir, Tabuk, and Al Bahah sections. The road between the cities of Hail and Rafah was also severely impacted by the hailstorm. The hailstorms began last Wednesday and continued throughout the weekend, with meteorologists anticipating these extreme weather conditions to last until Monday, November 4. Weather alerts are still in effect, warning of further hail and thunderstorms in the coming days. The hailstorms were accompanied by heavy thunderstorms, resulting in local interruptions, valley flooding, and a considerable temperature drop throughout the impacted areas.
Subtropical Storm “Patty” impacting the Azores - Subtropical Storm “Patty” formed over the northern Atlantic at 09:00 UTC on Saturday, November 2, 2024, prompting the Azores Meteorological Service to issue Tropical Storm Warnings for all islands of the Azores at 12:05 UTC. Satellite image of Subtropical Storm "Patty" at 10:20 UTC on November 3, 2024. At 15:00 UTC on November 2, the center of the storm was located about 480 km (300 miles) WNW of the Portuguese archipelago of the Azores, moving southeast at 20 km/h (13 mph). Maximum sustained winds were recorded at around 100 km/h (65 mph). The storm had a minimum central pressure of 982 hPa, with winds of 66 km/h (40 mph) extending up to 330 km (205 miles) from the center. Patty approached the Azores by 21:00 UTC on Saturday with maximum sustained winds of 100 km/h (65 mph) and at 03:00 UTC on Sunday, November 3, its center was located about 115 km (75 miles) SSW of Lajes in the Azores. The system had maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h (60 mph) and was moving E at 31 km/h (20 mph). At 09:00 UTC on Sunday, Patty’s center was very near Sao Miguel Island (population 140 000) — the largest and most populous island in the archipelago. Forecast models indicate that Subtropical Storm “Patty” will continue moving eastward to east-northeast over the next few days. This trajectory is expected to bring the storm near the southeastern Azores later today. Residents in these areas should prepare for weather impacts as Patty draws closer. The storm’s intensity has decreased, with maximum sustained winds now recorded at 85 km/h (50 mph), though stronger gusts may still occur. Continued weakening is expected, and Patty is forecast to become a post-tropical system by early Monday, eventually dissipating by midweek. This transition should result in a gradual reduction of impacts over the affected regions.
Social murder in Spain: 217 dead, 1900 missing in Valencia flood -- The catastrophic impact and death toll from last Tuesday’s Valencia floods are an indictment of the social and political order. Valencia is well known to be one of Europe’s most flood-prone areas, and scientists have for years warned Spanish and European authorities of the urgent need to protect its population. Yet masses of people received no warning on Tuesday before walls of water from flash floods broke over their homes and workplaces. Spanish authorities tried to cover up the scope of the catastrophe and refused to publish a death toll, which was unknown until Friday night when notes of a meeting of the Valencia regional authorities were leaked to the press. They revealed that a staggering 1,900 people were missing and nearly 200 people confirmed dead. Since then, the number of confirmed dead has risen to 217 across Spain, including 213 in the Valencia region. According to photo data from the Copernicus Emergency Management Service, the European Union (EU) space program, the floods hit at least 77,000 buildings, home to 199,000 people. Mud has buried many of the bodies and floodwaters have carried others out to sea. Streets are littered with cars tossed about like matchboxes by the floodwaters. Thousands of people still do not have access to running water, electricity, heating or medicine, and stores and supermarkets across the region are in ruins. While Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez of the Socialist Party (PSOE)-Sumar government has ordered 10,000 soldiers and military police to the region, rescue operations are still largely being carried out by volunteers. The Spanish Health Ministry has warned that hospitals are “on the verge of collapse,” and by Friday, its emergency hotline had received 75,000 calls. The Mediterranean Corridor routes, on which 40 percent of Spanish goods pass, are closed. The Madrid-Valencia A3 highway is cut, trains in Valencia are stopped, and dozens of roads and bridges are demolished. Moreover, the storm is still lashing eastern Spain: Murcia, Almeria, Alicante, Castellon, Tarragona, and now southern Valencia again are all on flood alert. Valencia is the scene of a social crime. Scientists have long warned that human-induced climate change would raise the vulnerability of the Mediterranean region, and of eastern Spain specifically, to catastrophic floods. After Valencia flooded in 2019, the Red Cross issued a report warning of weak infrastructure, building construction taking place in flood-prone areas, and nonexistent disaster planning in Valencia and called for measures to protect its population from future floods. None of these warnings were heeded in official circles. The PSOE and Compromis, the Valencian allies of the middle-class pseudo-left Podemos and Sumar parties, set up an unfunded Valencian Emergency Union (UVE) shortly before leaving office. Their successor, Valencian Premier Carlos Mazón of the right-wing Popular Party (PP), scrapped the UVE after being elected in 2023. At the same time, Mazón cut inheritance taxes on landowners and handed €90 million in corporate subsidies to Volkswagen. As the storm approached, Mazón refused to take action, though Spain’s State Meteorological Agency gave warnings five days in advance, correctly predicting flood waters would peak Tuesday. He issued baseless assurances to the public that the rains would diminish over the course of the day. It was not until shortly after 8 p.m. Tuesday that his government issued a text message alert advising residents to stay indoors. But by that time, the region was flooded and hundreds were already dead.
Spain's catastrophic floods by the numbers: At least 219 dead, 93 missing and billions in damage (AP) — The catastrophic torrential rains that overflowed rivers and normally dry canals in eastern Spain last week triggered flash floods that submerged entire communities and killed scores of people. The deluge left behind a landscape of devastation, especially in Valencia, the hardest-hit region. The search for the dead and missing continues, more than a week since the Oct. 29 floods hit — as well as a gargantuan cleanup and recovery effort. The historic floods caused 219 deaths, 211 of them in the Valencia region alone. Another seven people died in neighboring Castilla La Mancha and one more in southern Andalusia. Ninety-three people have been officially declared missing, but authorities admit that the real number could be higher. Another 54 bodies remain unidentified. In total, 36,605 people have been rescued, according to authorities. The full extent of the damage is unknown, but Spain’s Consortium for Insurance Compensation, a public-private entity that pays insurance claims for extreme risks like floods, estimates that it will spend at least 3.5 billion euros ($3.8 billion) in compensation.The consortium has received 116,000 insurance claims for flood damage, with 60% of the claims for cars and 31% for homes. Spain’s Association of Insurance Companies anticipates the flooding will break a historic record for payouts.The Transport Ministry has so far repaired 232 kilometers (144 miles) of road and rail tracks but the highspeed train line between Valencia and Madrid is still demolished.The central government has approved a 10.6 billion-euro ($11.6-billion) relief package for families, business and townhalls. The Valencia regional government is asking Madrid for 31 billion euros ($33 billion) in aid as well. The drought that has hit the country for the past two years and record hot temperatures helped magnify the floods, scientists say. Spain’s meteorological agency says that 30.4 inches fell in one hour in the Valencian town of Turis, an all-time national record for rainfall set on Oct. 29. The devastated village of Chiva also received more rain in eight hours than the town had experienced in the preceding 20 months. The storms honed in on the Magro and Turia Rivers and the Poyo canal, turning them into swift currents that swept away everything in their path. To the human eye, it looked as if a tsunami-like wave of water and mud cut a swath through the southern outskirts of the city of Valencia. The European Space Agency said that, according to satellite images captured on Oct. 31, water covered an area of 15,633 hectares (38,600 acres). About 190,000 people were directly affected, the agency said.In all, 78 municipalities had at least one resident perish in the floods.The emergency operation mobilized by central authorities has grown to more than 17,000 troops and police officers.The operation includes 8,000 soldiers — 2,100 of them belonging to military emergency units specialized in disaster response — along with 9,200 additional police officers from other parts of Spain.Thousands of ordinary citizens volunteered, with no definite estimate as to exactly how many, have helped from day one with the cleanup effort. Spanish authorities have yet to say how many calls about missing people they received, give an estimate of the property damage, or release a calculation of how much land was devastated.And at this point, no one can guess when the recovery effort will be concluded.
Floodwaters wash away 30 vehicles in Cadaqués, Catalonia, Spain - Some 30 vehicles got washed away during flash floods in Cadaqués (population 2 802) after heavy rainfall in Spain’s Girona region on Friday, November 8. The incident occurred around 03:54 local time, with the vehicles being carried by the floodwaters and accumulating beneath a bridge; fortunately, they did not reach the sea and no injuries were reported. The flooding was attributed to intense rainfall, with forecasts indicating potential accumulations of up to 100 mm (3.9 inches) over 24 hours. “There has been a lot of water falling on the mountain and, although it has hardly rained in the town, the water has swept away some parked cars,” said the Mayor of Cadasques, Pia Serinana. The event comes just over a week after a powerful storm system delivered more than a year’s worth of rain in just one day, causing historic flooding in Valencia on October 29, 2024. This time the storm has been heavy in Cap de Creus, parts of the Costa Brava, and the Sierra de la Albera. In Tallada d’Empordà, 47.1 mm (1.85 inches) of rain fell, and in Portbou, 16.6 mm (0.65 inches) fell in 30 minutes, reaching a total of 48 mm (1.89 inches) in three hours.
150 people killed in Philippines in the wake of Typhoon Trami -- Massive flooding and landslides in the Philippines killed nearly 150 people in the wake of Severe Tropical Storm Trami. The storm headed on to Vietnam, wreaking similar havoc. The latest disaster follows massive storms earlier this year exacerbated by climate change and refusal of capitalist governments to prepare adequately for natural disasters. Trami, named Kristine in the Philippines, originated as a low-pressure system west of Guam on October 19. On October 22, the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) upgraded the system to a tropical storm, naming it Trami. On October 24, the now severe tropical storm made landfall in Luzon, the largest island of the Philippines, located in the north, with winds between 89 to 117 kilometers per hour. Heavy rainfall, however, caused most of the damage with landslides reported in Catanduanes Province and heavy flooding in Albay Province where 413 mm of rain fell in just 17 hours. This was the highest recorded rainfall in that province in over 18 years, equal to approximately two months of rain in just a single day. Similar record rainfalls were reported in other provinces. In Camarines Norte Province, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration or PAG-ASA recorded the highest 24-hour rainfall in nearly a century with 528.5 mm of rain. In the city of Naga, government officials estimate 700 mm of rain. This caused floods in the Bicol River Basin, the worst since 1969. Naga reported flood waters reaching as high as 1.8 meter. Floods in Quezon Province reportedly reached even higher at three meters. The Visayas Islands in central Philippines and Mindanao Island in the south were not spared. Flash floods were reported in the city of Bacolod on Negros Island. Strong waves were reported to have destroyed 50 houses in Zamboanga del Norte Province of Mindanao. The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) of the Philippines reported that over 5.9 million people were affected by the storm, which battered the capital, Manila, 73 provinces, and 828 cities and towns. Over 575,000 people were forced to evacuate with nearly 200,000 of those unable to reach or find shelter in the government designated evacuation centers. According to the council, confirmed casualties reached 145 dead and 37 missing, indicating that the death total could rise. At least 115 have been injured. More than 111,000 houses have been damaged across the country. The impact of the latest natural disaster, just as others in the past, has disproportionately impacted the poor. Government officials reported damaged or destroyed public infrastructure, including three bridges and 32 public school buildings, amounted to over $US16 million. The agricultural sector suffered more severely with damages totalling over $US24 million, affecting 35,900 fishermen and farmers. Over 31,000 hectares of land were also affected. In the wake of the storm, 122 cities and towns remained without electricity and 22 without water services as of last Tuesday evening. Trami is the 11th storm to strike the Philippines in 2024. This includes Typhoon Yagi in September, which killed 844 people across Southeast Asia. Nine more are expected before the year ends, including Super Typhoon Kong-rey, known in the Philippines as Leon, which hit the country last week.
Severe flooding in central Vietnam leaves 12 dead, 34 000 homes flooded - (4 videos) Severe flooding in central Vietnam, triggered by Tropical Storm “Trami” and a sweeping cold front, has killed 12 people, injured seven, and damaged thousands of homes and hectares of crops in Quang Binh Province since late October. Authorities are now cautioning residents about ongoing risks from rising river levels and additional rain expected through mid-November. As of October 31, the flooding has resulted in 12 deaths, seven injuries, and significant property damage, according to local authorities. Five ships have sunk, and over 34 000 homes are flooded. The worst damage is concentrated in Le Thuy District, which reported seven fatalities. Quang Ninh District reported four deaths, and Dong Hoi City reported one. Five of the injured are residents of Le Thuy, and two are from Quang Ninh. Le Thuy District remains heavily impacted, with over 1 500 homes submerged, and floodwaters completely isolating one village. Floodwaters began to recede in some areas by the afternoon of October 31, but water levels at the Kien Giang River station in Le Thuy remained elevated at 2.35 m (7.7 feet). From October 25 to 29, the province experienced heavy rainfall, with Song Thai Lake recording 1 210 mm (47.6 inches) and An Ma Lake 870 mm (34.3 inches). At its peak, the Kien Giang River in Le Thuy reached 4.14 m (13.6 feet), causing widespread flooding. Approximately 9 290 families have been evacuated, and nearly 34 500 homes are submerged in Quang Binh. Le Thuy District sustained the heaviest damage, with around 20 000 homes affected. Floods destroyed 791 ha (1 955.8 acres) of crops, over 70 500 poultry, and nearly 500 livestock while damaging 716 ha (1 769.3 acres) of fish farms. Infrastructure, including roads, sea dikes, and coastal areas, has also been affected, with estimated losses of around VND500 billion (USD19.7 million), according to the Provincial Steering Committee for Natural Disaster Prevention and Search and Rescue. This recent flooding is the second major flood in Quang Binh Province in four years. In October 2020, extensive flooding submerged large portions of Quang Ninh and Le Thuy Districts, reaching depths of 2 – 4 m (6.6 – 13.1 feet) and lasting over ten days, resulting in 25 fatalities and economic losses of VND3.5 trillion (USD138 million). The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting warns of ongoing flooding risks along rivers from Ha Tinh to Binh Dinh provinces through November 9. Flood levels on rivers in Quang Binh and Quang Tri are expected to reach alert levels 2 – 3, while other rivers from Ha Tinh to Binh Dinh may reach alert levels 1 – 2 or higher. These flood levels indicate an elevated risk of flash floods, landslides, and flooding in low-lying areas, especially along steep slopes in mountainous regions between Nghe An and Binh Dinh. Urban areas are also expected to face increased flood risks, especially from Ha Tinh to Quang Ngai. Authorities have issued warnings for residents across Ha Tinh, Quang Binh, and Quang Tri Provinces, as well as towns and cities in Thua Thien-Hue, advising them to stay cautious due to the risks of flash floods, landslides, and sudden land subsidence during heavy rains. Heavy rains are expected to continue in the region through November 10, with the potential for severe flooding due to a combination of meteorological factors, including a low-pressure system in the East Sea, ongoing cold air surges, and a strong easterly wind belt. Mai Van Khiem, head of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, noted that this weather pattern could lead to large-scale flooding in northern and central provinces, increasing risks of flash floods and landslides in mountainous areas. Given saturated soils from late October rains, risks are elevated along river valleys and in hilly regions. Further heavy rain events are anticipated to affect the central region through the remainder of November, starting after November 10.
Typhoon floods villages, rips off roofs and damages 2 domestic airports in northern Philippines (AP) — Typhoon Yinxing battered the northern Philippines with floods and landslides before blowing away from the country on Friday, leaving two airports damaged and aggravating a calamity caused by back-to-back storms that hit in recent weeks. There were no immediate reports of casualties from Yinxing, the 13th major storm to hit the disaster-prone Southeast Asian archipelago this year. Typhoon floods villages, rips off roofs and damages 2 domestic airports in northern Philippines -- Typhoon Yinxing battered the northern Philippines with floods and landslides before blowing away from the country on Friday, leaving two airports damaged and aggravating a calamity caused by back-to-back storms that hit in recent weeks. The typhoon, locally called Marce, was last tracked over the South China Sea about 100 kilometers (62 miles) west of the northern Philippine province of Ilocos Norte with sustained winds of up to 150 kilometers (93 miles) per hour and gusts of up to 205 kph (127 mph), according to government forecasters. It is expected to weaken further before hitting Vietnam. The typhoon flooded villages, toppled trees and electricity poles, and damaged houses and buildings in Cagayan province, where Yinxing made landfall Thursday afternoon, provincial officials said. More than 40,000 villagers were evacuated to safer ground in the province. In the northernmost island province of Batanes, Gov. Marilou Cayco said Yinxing’s fierce winds and rain blew away roofs of houses and damaged seaports and two domestic airport terminals. More details of damage, including in two northern mountain towns hit by landslides, were expected after provinces battered by the typhoon complete an assessment, officials said. The new damage will complicate recovery efforts from two powerful storms that lashed the northern region in recent weeks. Tropical Storm Trami and Typhoon Kong-rey left at least 151 people dead in the Philippines and affected nearly 9 million others, mostly in the northern and central provinces. More than 14 billion pesos ($241 million) in rice, corn and other crops and infrastructure were damaged. Trami dumped one to two months’ worth of rain in just 24 hours in some regions. In the hardest-hit province of Batangas, south of Manila, at least 61 people died in floods and landslides. More than 630,000 people were still displaced due to Trami and Kong-rey as of Thursday, officials said, including 172,000 who remained in emergency shelters as Yinxing blew across the country’s mountainous north.
Typhoon “Yingxing” makes double landfall over Phillipines, 17 000 evacuated - Typhoon ‘Yinxing’ made dual landfalls in the Philippines’ Cagayan region on Thursday, November 7, 2024, forcing the evacuation of thousands of people and delivering high-impact winds, storm surges, and torrential rainfall to the area. Satellite image of Typhoon "Yinxing"(Marce) at the time of first landfall over Santa Ana at 08:00 UTC on November 7, 2024 Satellite image of Typhoon "Yinxing" (Marce) at the time of first landfall over Santa Ana at 08:00 UTC on November 7, 2024. Regardless of the position of the center of the eye in the next few hours, it must be emphasized that potentially life-threatening conditions due to typhoon-force winds, storm surge inundation, and torrential rainfall will be experienced in the Babuyan Islands and the northern portions of mainland Cagayan, Ilocos Norte, and Apayao, PAGASA warned at 18:00 UTC today (02:00 LT, November 8). The typhoon is forecast to continue to weaken for the next few days after it emerges over the coastal waters of the Ilocos Region due to the possible dry air intrusion from the prevailing northeasterly wind flow. Nevertheless, it will remain a typhoon throughout its passage within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) region. Typhoon “Yinxing” — known as Marce in the Philippines, made landfall over Santa Ana in the country’s Cagayan region at approximately 08:00 UTC (16:00 local time) on Thursday, with maximum sustained winds of 175 km/h (109 mph) and gusts reaching up to 240 km/h (149 mph). The system’s central pressure was approximately 940 hPa at landfall. Six hours after making landfall in Santa Ana, the typhoon made a second landfall over Sanchez-Mira in Cagayan at around 22:00 LT on Thursday. Maximum wind speeds near the center reached around 175 km/h (109 mph), with gusts of up to 290 km/h (180 mph). The system’s minimum central pressure at the time of this second landfall remained at approximately 940 hPa. As of 02:00 LT on Friday, November 8, the system was located over Pasuquin, Ilocos Norte, with maximum sustained winds of 165 km/h (102 mph) and gusts of up to 275 km/h (171 mph). The system’s minimum central pressure was 945 hPa, and it was moving in a west-southwest direction at 20 km/h (12 mph). Wind Signal 4 has been issued for the northwestern portion of Cagayan, Babuyan Islands, the northern portion of Apayao, the northernmost portion of Abra, Ilocos Norte, and the northernmost portions of Ilocos Sur. Wind Signal 4 represents the highest level of wind warning issued by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). It indicates the potential for typhoon-force winds capable of causing significant damage. According to PAGASA, Yinxing will continue moving westward over the Ilocos Norte area and is expected to reach the waters west of the Ilocos Norte region on November 8 (LT). Potentially life-threatening conditions are forecast due to typhoon-force winds, storm surge inundation, and torrential rainfall for the Babuyan Islands and the northern portions of mainland Cagayan, Ilocos Norte, and Apayao. Evacuation orders were issued for several regions on Wednesday, November 6, and Thursday, November 7. According to a rescue official in the northernmost portion of Cagayan, at least 17 000 people were relocated from the province’s coastal areas to temporary shelters on Wednesday due to the risk of flooding triggered by heavy rains. In the mountainous province of Apayao, nearly 500 people have been evacuated. Many areas in the north have suspended classes, and government offices are on high alert to respond quickly to the typhoon. There is a high risk of life-threatening storm surge with peak surge heights exceeding 3 m (10 feet) in the next 48 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, and La Union, PAGASA forecasters said at 18:00 UTC on November 7 (02:00 LT, November 8). The seaboard of Babuyan Islands and Ilocos Norte, along with the northern seaboard of mainland Cagayan, may experience waves reaching up to 12 (39.4 feet) over the next 24 hours. Meanwhile, the remaining coastal waters of Cagayan, as well as the seaboards of Batanes and Ilocos Sur, could see waves of up to 7 m (23 feet). The remaining seaboard of the Ilocos Region is expected to encounter waves up to 5 m (16.4 feet), and the seaboards of northern Zambales and Isabela may experience waves as high as 4.5 m (14.8 feet).
Rafael strengthens near Cuba, may approach US later this weekend - Although the latest trends on the future path of the storm are good news for the United States, AccuWeather forecasters say it is too early to give the all clear on tropical impacts along the Gulf coast. AccuWeather’s Bernie Rayno and Jon Porter monitor Hurricane Rafael as it closes in on Cuba as a major hurricane. The storm is expected to continue across the Gulf of Mexico toward Louisiana next week. Flooding rain, damaging winds and the likelihood of flash flooding and mudslides are expected across Cuba. A storm surge of 6-10 feet can occur in parts of the south-facing coastline."Steering breezes will guide the hurricane across Cuba into Wednesday night," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said, "In this zone, waters are sufficiently warm, and disruptive breezes and wind shear will be low."The AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes is a 3 for Cuba. The RealImpact™ Scale considers the magnitude of rainfall, storm surge, mudslides, flooding and wind, as well as the economic impacts on populated areas. The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale only considers the storm's wind intensity. Rafael is expected to track into the Gulf of Mexico and spend some time as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane before losing some wind intensity due to progressively cooler waters and increasing wind shear. Once it enters the Gulf, AccuWeather hurricane experts say there are several routes the storm could take. "Once in the Gulf of Mexico, slight differences in Rafael's intensity and atmospheric steering winds could have a significant impact on its final track," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bill Deger said. Rafael and its winds will be large and strong enough to create rough seas over the Gulf of Mexico, building surf and triggering beach erosion along shores. Should the storm track make landfall, some coastal flooding is likely to the north and east of the storm track.The highest probability of any U.S. landfall is along the central Louisiana coast. However, since steering breezes may change a bit late this week and this weekend due to the approach of a non-tropical storm from the south-central U.S., there is a wide window as to where or if landfall will occur. Other scenarios take Rafael westward across the Gulf of Mexico rather than jogging it northward toward the U.S. In this case, the impact on the U.S. would be minimal."It is also possible Rafael is torn apart by strong winds high in the atmosphere and dissipates in the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall," Deger said.A stronger hurricane may also tend to track more to the east rather than north. In this case, impacts would be greater along the Florida Gulf coast, including from storm surge. This is the least likely scenario at this point.In yet another scenario, Rafael may lose so much wind intensity that it arrives in the U.S. as a tropical depression or wind and rainstorm. Regardless, this will not be a situation where a major strengthening hurricane makes landfall in the U.S.; rather, it will be something less intense in terms of wind intensity. Impacts from rainfall can still be experienced well inland. AccuWeather meteorologists say a zone of downpours will set up well ahead of Rafael over the southern Atlantic coast into the weekend. These preceding downpours can trigger incidents of flash flooding, but a repeat of the flooding disaster that led up to Heleneis not expected.
Hurricane Rafael makes landfall in Cuba as a Category 3 storm | CNN — Hurricane Rafael slammed into Cuba as a Category 3 hurricane Wednesday afternoon before losing some strength as it passed over the island on its way to the Gulf of Mexico.The powerful hurricane is the fifth major hurricane of the year in the Atlantic and the strongest this late in the year since 2020.The storm’s winds strengthened from 60 mph to 115 mph from Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday afternoon, an increase well over the 35 mph needed for rapid intensification. As Rafael moved over Cuba, it weakened slightly to a Category 2 hurricane, with 110 mph maximum sustained winds.Rapid intensification is happening more frequently as the atmosphere and oceans warm due to fossil fuel pollution; Rafael is the ninth storm to rapidly intensify in the Atlantic basin this year.After it tears through the Caribbean, the hurricane is expected to face some serious resistance in the Gulf of Mexico and could make landfall as a much weaker storm this weekend anywhere from the US Gulf Coast to northeastern Mexico.What, if any, threat Rafael poses to the Gulf Coast is still unclear but is coming into better focus, and a more confident forecast will be possible once the storm is in the Gulf on Thursday.Rafael’s threat to Cuba is clear: It’s delivering a devastating blow as the first Category 3 hurricane to hit the country since Ian in 2022.Heavy rain from the hurricane was spreading across Cuba and will deluge the country into Thursday. Double-digit rainfall totals are possible. Hurricane-force winds will batter the western part of the country through the evening.Thousands of people in the western Artemisa province have been evacuated from coastal zones, officials said on state TV before landfall. Rafael’s core came ashore just east of Playa Majana in the province.The national electric system was disconnected due to strong winds as Rafael approached the island, government officials said.The Cuban civil defense has placed western and central provinces under a state of alarm, urging people there to limit their movement. The normally bustling streets of Havana were largely emptied on Wednesday afternoon.While the center of the storm was about 30 miles southwest of Havana, one wind gust in the capital reached 93 mph while another at the international airport was measured at 71 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.This is the second blow from a hurricane in Cuba in recent weeks. Hurricane Oscar walloped Cuba in late October, killing at least seven people. The country’s power grid is also vulnerable and has collapsed multiple times, including when Oscar hit in October. Rafael is the strongest hurricane to roam the northwestern Caribbean in November since 2009, according to data from the NOAA.It’s forecast to become only the fifth hurricane to roam the Gulf of Mexico in November since 1966, according to hurricane expert Michael Lowry.
Cuba left reeling after Category 3 hurricane ravages island and knocks out power grid (AP) — Cuba was left reeling Thursday after a fierce Category 3 hurricane ripped across the island, destroying hundreds of homes, knocking out the country’s power grid and damaging other infrastructure. No fatalities were immediately reported in Cuba, and Hurricane Rafael had weakened to a Category 2 storm as it swirled across the gulf toward Mexico where heavy rains were expected in the coming days. Rafael crossed a western portion of Cuba on Wednesday evening about 75 kilometers (45 miles) west of Havana, where José Ignacio Dimas returned home from his night shift as a security guard to find his apartment building in the historic center of the city had collapsed. “The entire front wall of the building fell,” José Ignacio Dimas said in a tight voice as he scanned the damage early Thursday. Like many buildings in the capital, it was aging and lacked maintenance. 0:00 More than 461 homes collapsed because of the hurricane, Cuban authorities said. More than 283,000 people from across the country had been evacuated from their homes, 98,300 of which were in Havana, according to authorities. Streets across the western swath of the country were riddled with utility poles, wires and trees. In Havana, residents picked up what debris they could, but huge trees and fallen telephone lines lined the ground, blocking traffic. Concerned about food going bad due to blackouts, a group of residents opened an informal soup kitchen. “If we don’t work together as neighbors, nobody does it,” said Ariel Calvo, who was helping to shovel debris Thursday morning. Lázaro Guerra, electricity director for the Ministry of Energy and Mines, said power had been partially restored in the island’s western region and that generation units were powering back up. But he warned that restoring power would be slow-going as crews took safety precautions. On Thursday morning, the hurricane was located about 260 miles (420 kilometers) west-northwest of Havana. It had maximum sustained winds of 105 mph (165 kph) and was moving west-northwest at 9 mph (15 kph).
Duke Energy’s Hurricane Restoration Costs Could Hit $2.9 Billion -North Carolina giant electric utility, Duke Energy Corp., has provided estimates that the total cost to restore facilities damaged by Hurricanes Debby, Milton and Helene could fall in the range of $2.4 billion to $2.9 billion.According to CEO Lynn Good, tens of thousands of the company’s customers were left without power after Helene ripped away transmission lines and power poles, but the company managed to restore 5.5 million outages during the "historic storm season".Duke Energy made the announcement during the company’s third-quarter earnings call. The company’s reported earnings per share (EPS) was $1.60, good for a 17.6% Y/Y decline from the third quarter of 2023. The adjusted EPS figures excluded certain costs like the redemption of preferred securities and system post-implementation expenses, highlighting the company’s efforts to present a clearer picture of its ongoing financial health.Duke Energy’s Electric Utilities and Infrastructure segment reported income of $1.45 billion on a GAAP basis, a marginal increase from $1.44 billion in the previous year’s comparable quarter. However, adjusted net income declined to $1.46 billion from $1.53 billion, primarily driven by storm restoration costs, higher operational/maintenance expenses and increased depreciation and interest expenses.Last month, KeyBanc downgraded DUK shares to Sector Weight from Overweight, saying the recent storms may present a near-term challenge. Analyst Sophine Karp expects the final price tag will pressure Duke's balance sheet since the majority of storm costs will be capitalized, coming at a time when the company was closing in on achieving its 14% FFO/debt target in 2024. However, Karp said the company is well positioned to benefit from load growth, driven by broader economic development as well as data center demand, across its territories.
Mountain Fire destroys homes and leaves six injured in Ventura County, California - The Mountain Fire has burned through 8 287 ha (20 485 acres) of land since it broke out on Wednesday, November 6, 2024. The blaze has destroyed at least 132 structures and left six people injured, including one firefighter. The Mountain Fire that broke out in California’s Ventura County on Wednesday, November 6, grew rapidly due to high winds and long-range spotting, spreading to 8 287 ha (20 485 acres) as of 19:21 local time (LT) on Thursday, November 7. The blaze has caused five civilian injuries and one firefighter injury, and it is at 5% containment. It threatens approximately 11 768 structures. Several homes and other structures have been damaged; however, an assessment of the total number of structures damaged or destroyed has not yet been conducted. According to reports, the blaze has destroyed at least 132 structures so far and suggests that up to ten people may have been injured, most of whom suffered from smoke inhalation. Eleven out of the twelve zones affected by the blaze, including parts of Los Angeles, Santa Clara, and Santa Paula, are under evacuation orders affecting more than 10 000 people. Zone 7, which includes the area north of Highway 101, south and east of Beardsley Avenue, and south of Central Avenue, is under an evacuation warning. So far, 22 roads have been closed due to the blaze across the state. Around 2 420 firefighting personnel, along with 14 helicopters, 378 engines, 17 bulldozers, 202 water tenders, and 34 crews, are engaged in containing the blaze.
25 million people in California face ‘life-threatening’ fire warning | CNN — Powerful winds that fueled fast-moving wildfires across Southern California this week are expected to pick up momentum on Thursday –– worsening conditions for firefighters who are already battling limited visibility to save lives. The National Weather Service issued a Red Flag warning until 6 p.m. Thursday – which is used to describe “extreme and life-threatening fire behavior.” The warning is expected to affect 25 million people in Southern California and the greater San Francisco Bay area. Earlier this week, forecasters warned conditions appear concerningly similar to those responsible for “some of the worst fires in Southern California history.” All schools in Ventura County, northwest of Los Angeles, have been closed through Friday due to the fires. Here’s the latest:
- Ventura County’s Mountain Fire expanded in size on Wednesday after powerful Santa Ana winds came into contact with very dry air. The blaze is now moving at a “dangerous rate of spread,” Ventura County Fire Chief Dustin Gardner said at a news conference Wednesday, burning agricultural fields and hedgerows in the area.
- At least 800 firefighters and 58 fire engines have been deployed to contain the Mountain Fire on South Mountain. It has been unsafe for helicopters to operate, Fire Captain Trevor Johnson said in a news conference.
- Footage obtained by CNN from the town of Camarillo Hills shows orange embers searing through trees and homes late Wednesday, with structures barely recognizable and many burned to the ground.
- Officials haven’t determined the number of structures that have been damaged. In a statement announcing Federal Emergency Management Agency support for fire rescuers, California Gov. Gavin Newsom estimated roughly 3,500 homes, structures, and businesses have been affected by the Mountain Fire.
- At least two people have been transported to the hospital with possible smoke inhalation, fire officials said.
- As of Thursday morning, California’s Department of Forestry and Fire Protection estimated the Mountain Fire has burned at 14,148 acres with 0% containment. More than 14,000 people remain under evacuation orders, according to the Ventura County Sheriff’s Office.
Christina Noren, 50, and her husband Paul Boutin, 62, quickly evacuated from their home in Camarillo Heights around 12 p.m. Wednesday. They only had time to grab their dog, their laptops, some clothes, toothbrushes and Boutin’s thyroid medication. Noren said she started to get worried about the smoke in the sky around 11:00 a.m. Within 45 minutes, police and fire officials were knocking on doors in her neighborhood and telling people to leave immediately. “And they were really like, get the hell out of there now,” said Noren. Noren has collected art for 30+ years. She had to leave everything behind when she evacuated.
Wind-whipped California brush fire explodes to nearly 20,000 acres and spreading 'dangerously fast' - A wind-whipped Southern California brush fire that exploded to 20,000 acres in about 24 hours, destroying homes and prompting mass evacuations, remained out of control Thursday as Gov. Gavin Newsom rallied state and federal resources to battle the blaze. The November fire came amid unseasonably warm temperatures and strong Santa Ana winds. The National Weather Service issued red-flag warnings for Ventura and Los Angeles counties that are to remain in effect through at least Friday morning. Ventura County remains under an "extremely critical" wildfire warning while firefighters struggle to gain an edge on the Mountain Fire, which had burned 19,643 acres and destroyed an undetermined number of homes since starting near the town of Camarillo around 9:41 a.m. PT Wednesday. The blaze was 0% contained Thursday. Aerial footage from ABC Los Angeles station KABC showed what appeared to be row after row of destroyed homes in the towns Camarillo, Moorpark and Somis. Multiple people were taken to the hospitals to be treated for smoke inhalation and other injuries, Ventura County emergency officials said. Some victims became trapped in their cars as they raced from the fast-moving flames, officials said. "We do know we’ve lost homes, we do know we’ve had homes damaged, and we know of injuries but I do not have any counts," Officer Scott Dettorre, spokesman for the Ventura County Fire Department, told ABC News. At least 14,000 people were ordered to evacuate, said Ventura County Sheriff Jim Fryhoff. Newsom announced on Wednesday that he has mobilized statewide resources to help battle the fire and has secured a grant from the Federal Emergency Management Agency to make vital resources available to extinguish the fire. The California Office of Emergency Services said it had prepositioned 48 pieces of firefighting equipment, nine helicopters and over 100 personnel in 19 counties across California in advance of dangerous fire weather forecast in many parts of coastal and inland California. "This is a dangerous fire that’s spreading quickly and threatening lives," Newsom said in a statement. "State resources have been mobilized to protect communities, and this federal support from the Biden-Harris Administration will give state and local firefighters the resources they need to save lives and property as they continue battling this aggressive fire." The Mountain Fire is one of two wind-driven fires that broke out in Southern California, leading the NWS to issue a rare red flag warnings for Los Angeles and Ventura counties alerting of an "extreme fire risk" from Malibu into the San Gabriel Mountains, north of Los Angeles, where winds could gust near 100 mph. "A very strong, widespread, and long-duration Santa Ana wind event will bring widespread extremely critical fire weather conditions to many areas of Los Angeles and Ventura counties Wednesday into Thursday," according to the NWS warning. The cause of the fire remained under investigation Thursday.
At least 80 homes destroyed as Mountain fire chars Ventura County - Camarillo Heights resident Maurice Kerr stood inside the shell of his burned-out home Thursday morning.With the surrounding rubble still smoldering and smoke choking the air, the 68-year-old said he did his best to fight the wind-driven Mountain fire, which started raining embers on his home soon after it started Wednesday morning.But facing 50- to 60-mph winds, the lone fire hose he was using — hooked up to his indoor pool — to try to beat back the flames wasn’t enough. Nor were those of the firefighters who arrived and pulled him out as flames began to engulf the 4,800-square-foot ranch-style home, destroying his and dozens of other residences during the most extreme Santa Ana wind event to hit Southern California in years. “I finally had to hose myself down to put myself out,” he said.By Thursday afternoon, the Mountain fire had grown to more than 19,600 acres, forcing thousands to evacuate and straining local resources. The fire swept into foothill communities around Camarillo and Moorpark, pushed westward by offshore winds that the National Weather Service deemed “particularly dangerous.” Shooting embers from the fire sparked new blazes up to 2½ miles ahead of the main fire line, officials said.Early Thursday, officials issued additional evacuation orders for residents in the Santa Paula area, just north of the Santa Clara River. Officials warned that more than 30,000 people live in the potential path of the fire and need to be prepared for further warnings or orders as strong winds remain a concern through at least the evening.The California Governor’s Office of Emergency Management estimated that more than 5,000 homes were either under evacuation order or warning.“It remains dynamic and it remains dangerous,” Ventura County Fire Chief Dustin Gardner said. The fire was burning without containment.At one point, the chief acknowledged that “we did run out of water, high up in the heights,” then elaborated that there were areas where “water pressure was either diminished or water flow was diminished.”Firefighters on the ground did say the water supply interruptions slowed them from fighting fires at times.It remains unclear exactly how many homes have been lost, but Times reporters in the area counted more than 90 homes destroyed by the fire and several more damaged.
Fast-moving Mountain Fire prompts closures at Southern California colleges --A fast-moving wildfire in Southern California fueled by Santa Ana winds grew to nearly 20,000 acres Thursday as firefighters continued to try to control the blaze in Ventura County.Officials had not made progress on containing the fire, and there was no official count for the number of homes the Mountain Fire has destroyed in Camarillo Heights and other parts of Ventura County.Video shot by NBC Los Angeles showed homes burned to the ground and fires burning over a large area Wednesday night. Ten damage inspection teams were sent out Thursday, officials said."The fire did run through a heavily populated area, and we want to make sure that we’re thorough in there," Ventura County Fire Capt. Trevor Johnson told reporters Thursday.The Mountain Fire erupted at 8:51 a.m. Wednesday and was fueled by what fire officials called a significant Santa Ana wind event, with gusts of over 60 mph. Embers from the fire were carried over 2 miles and started spot fires. The cause of the fire remains under investigation, according to anincident update from the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, known as Cal FireAndy VanSciver, a Ventura County fire spokesperson, said the fire was "challenging.""We're still focusing on life safety and structure defense," he said at the news conference.Two people, not firefighters, were injured and taken to a hospital, Ventura County Sheriff James Fryhoff said. He did not have details about their statuses at Thursday's news conference.Authorities have contacted more than 14,000 residents in evacuation zones, Fryhoff said. He did not know how many people have evacuated.No people were reported missing in the aftermath of the fire Thursday, he said. No deaths have been reported. The fire was so fast-moving and dangerous that firefighters got people out of their homes and drove them out of the area in fire engines, Johnson has said. Steve Taylor was one of the Camarillo Heights residents whose homes burned to rubble.He told NBC Los Angeles that he grabbed a wedding ring and a few photos of his dad, who died about 10 years ago, before he jumped in his car and fled.“And 10 minutes later, I guess, the whole thing just blew up,” Taylor told the station. “So we were fortunate that everyone got out and everyone’s safe and we have our memories here. And we’ll make new memories.”
Earthquake swarm at Kamaʻehuakanaloa (Lōʻihi) volcano, Hawaii - A period of increased seismic activity started at Kamaʻehuakanaloa volcano (previously known as Lōʻihi) near Hawaii on November 1, 2024, with over 70 recorded earthquakes and two reaching M4.3. Seismicity remains above normal levels today, indicating magma movement beneath the volcano. The Kamaʻehuakanaloa seamount, located about 35 km (22 miles) southeast of Hawaii’s Big Island, entered a period of increased seismic activity at 04:00 UTC (18:00 HST) on November 1. The swarm included more than 70 earthquakes to 23:23 UTC on November 2, with 32 events exceeding M2 and two surpassing M4. The strongest event, a M4.3 earthquake, occurred at 22:05 UTC on November 1 at a depth of 5.8 km (3.6 miles) below sea level, or about 4.8 km (3 miles) beneath the volcano’s summit. The USGS has so far received only one felt report from the Island of Hawaiʻi for this event. Sorry, the video player failed to load.(Error Code: 101102) Although the exact cause of the activity remains uncertain, it may be related to magma movement within the volcano. The last confirmed eruption at Kamaʻehuakanaloa, formerly known as Lōʻihi, occurred in 1996 (VEI 0). Previous seismic swarms related to probable eruptions at the volcano involved thousands of thousands of earthquakes over days to weeks. Despite the current heightened seismicity, the HVO reported no anticipated impact on nearby volcanoes or infrastructure on the Island of Hawaiʻi. The volcano’s location and depth below the ocean surface mean that any eruptive activity would not pose a direct threat to residents on the island.
High-energy explosions and lava flows at Stromboli volcano, Italy - Stromboli experienced a series of high-energy explosions on November 2 and 3, 2024, starting with an eruption in the northern crater at 14:20 UTC, followed by another in the same area and a third in the central-southern crater. These events caused hot material to slip down the Sciara del Fuoco and initiated an active lava flow from the north crater.
- The volcanic activity continued into November 3, with regular explosive events noted despite the subsidence of the earlier lava effusion.
- Surveillance cameras from the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) monitored the explosions, while seismic instruments detected significant tremors associated with the volcanic activity.
A series of high-energy explosions were detected at Stromboli, starting at 14:20 UTC on November 2. The first explosion took place in the northern crater, quickly followed by a second explosion in the same area. At 14:21 UTC, another further explosion occurred in the central-southern crater region. The first incident resulted in the slip of hot material down the groove formed during the July 2024 volcanic activity in the upper Sciara del Fuoco. This prominent scarp funnels volcanic material toward the sea. .
Major eruption at Lewotobi volcano claims at least 10 lives, Indonesia -- A major eruption took place at Lewotobi Laki-laki volcano, Indonesia on Sunday, November 3, 2024, producing an ash column up to 12.2 km (40 000 feet) above sea level. The Aviation Color Code was raised to Red.
- Lava bombs and volcanic material rained down on villages located up to 4 km (2.1 miles) away, damaging homes and cars, and starting fires.
- At least ten people have been confirmed killed, with one body still remaining under the rubble, as of Monday morning (LT).
- More than 10 000 people were forced to evacuate to temporary relocation centers.
- The Alert Level was raised to 4 of 4.
According to the Center for Volcanology and Geological Disaster Mitigation (CVGHM), the first eruption took place at 16:57 UTC (23:57 LT) and was recorded on a seismograph with a maximum amplitude of 47.3 mm and a duration of 1 450 seconds, or approximately 24 minutes.The seismograph data indicating such a high amplitude and prolonged duration reflect a significant release of volcanic energy. The second eruption started at 18:27 UTC (01:27 LT, November 4) with a maximum amplitude of 17.7 mm and a duration of 180 seconds, or 3 minutes. According to the Volcanic Ash Advisory released by the Darwin Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) at 17:07 UTC, the Aviation Color Code was raised to Red. Satellite imagery from Himawari-9 showed volcanic ash moving northward at approximately 9 km/h (6 mph), with the ash cloud reaching a maximum altitude of 12.2 km (40 000 feet) above sea level. Forecasts suggest that volcanic ash at lower altitudes, up to approximately 9.8 km (32 000 feet), is expected to drift northwest, while ash at higher altitudes, between 9.8 km and 12.2 km (32 000 and 40 000 feet), will move northeast over the next 18 hours, potentially impacting air traffic hundreds of kilometers from the volcano. Darwin VAAC advisory issued at 18:07 UTC reports that volcanic ash is moving in two main directions — ash up to approximately 9.1 km (30 000 feet) is drifting north-northwest at a speed of about 9 km/h (5 mph), while higher-altitude ash, reaching up to 12.2 km (40 000 feet), is moving east-northeast at around 18 km/h (11 mph). The observed ash cloud extends significantly from the volcano’s summit, with satellite imagery from Himawari-9 indicating a strong ash signal. Due to meteorological clouds, some of the ash at lower altitudes is partially obscured in satellite images, but it remains visible due to its distinct infrared temperature readings. The Alert Level was raised to 4 of 4 and all activities within a 7 km (4 miles) radius were prohibited. Lava bombs and volcanic debris impacted villages within a 4 km (2.1 miles) radius, causing fires and structural damage. Abdul Muhari, spokesperson for the National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB), reported ten confirmed fatalities, with one individual still unaccounted for as of Monday morning, November 4. The eruption affected seven villages, leading to the evacuation of over 10 000 residents.
58-day state of emergency declared after eruption at Lewotabi claims 9 lives, damages 2 384 homes, Indonesia - --A powerful eruption took place at Indonesia’s Lewotobi volcano on November 3 on Indonesia’s Flores Island has resulted in at least 9 deaths and forced widespread evacuations, officials confirmed on November 5, 2024. The eruption took place on November 3, plunging nearby villages into darkness as lava, ash, and volcanic debris damaged homes and led to power outages. Authorities have declared a state of emergency, extending assistance to over 10 000 affected residents. Eruption at mount Lewotabi Laki Laki in Indonesia on November 5, 2024. Image credit: PVMBG The eruption lasted for 1 450 seconds and had an amplitude of 47.3 m (1.86 inches). Lava, rocks, and ash reached as high as 2 km (1.2 miles) and spread up to 4 km (2 miles), burning homes and destroying a Catholic convent in Hokeng village. Agusta Palma, head of the Saint Gabriel Foundation, reported one nun was killed and another is missing. Palma described the nuns fleeing for safety as volcanic ash fell in darkness. Heronimus Lamawuran, the spokesperson of East Flores regional government, reported seven villages were directly impacted. The death toll was revised from the previously reported 10 to 9. A total of 63 people were injured, and approximately 2 384 homes, along with at least 25 schools, were damaged. Authorities raised the alert to the highest level and set a 7 km (4 miles) exclusion zone. Several eruptions were recorded within a few hours following the initial eruption each lasting between 100 to 300 seconds with varying amplitudes. Lamawuran confirmed evacuations began on November 4, moving residents to areas 20 km (13 miles) from the crater. Images showed a red-lit sky, burning houses, residents wearing masks, and ash-covered roads. Indonesia’s National Disaster Management Agency warned of potential flash floods and cold lava flows in the days ahead. Agency spokesperson Abdul Muhari said rescuers continued searching for bodies under collapsed buildings within a 4 km (2.4 miles) radius. By November 4 afternoon, officials confirmed at least 10 000 people were affected across six villages in Wulanggitang District and four in Ile Bura District. Many sought refuge with relatives, while authorities prepared schools as shelters. About 16 000 people will have to be relocated. The government declared a 58-day state of emergency, enabling extended aid. Muhari noted the eruption temporarily closed Maumere Airport, affecting transport. Mount Lewotobi’s eruption is part of a recent series of volcanic events in Indonesia, located along the seismically active Pacific Ring of Fire. Earlier this year, Mount Ibu erupted on Halmahera Island, prompting evacuations. North Sulawesi’s Ruang volcano eruption in May displaced over 12 000, and flash floods and cold lava flows from Mount Marapi in West Sumatra led to over 60 fatalities in May.
New high-level eruption at Lewotobi Laki-laki volcano ejects ash up to 16.7 km (55 000 feet) a.s.l., Indonesia - A new powerful eruption took place at Indonesia’s Lewotobi Laki-laki volcano on November 7, 2024, producing a thick column of ash that rose up to 16.7 km (55 000 feet) above sea level. This eruption follows increased volcanic activity since the end of October and a powerful eruption on November 3 during which 9 people died and more than 2 000 homes were damaged by lava bombs. A new series of powerful explosions started at Laki-laki at 22:49 UTC on November 6 (05:49 LT on November 7) after a pause of just a couple of hours and intensified into Thursday, November 7. A massive ash cloud enveloped the region by 04:50 UTC on Thursday, significantly reducing visibility, while hazardous pyroclastic flows rapidly descended down the slopes of the volcano. According to Darwin VAAC advisory issued at 05:10 UTC, a high-level eruption to 16.7 km (55 000 feet) a.s.l. is moving south as well as laterally east and west. Meanwhile, volcanic ash to 7.3 km (24 000 feet) a.sl. is moving southwest. “The ash column was observed to be brown in color with thick intensity towards the southwest, west and northwest. When this report was made, the eruption was still ongoing,” PVMBG volcanologist Yohanes Kolli Sorywutun noted at 05:48 UTC (10:48 LT). The Aviation Color Code remains at Red and the Alert Level at 4 of 4. Satellite image of sulfur dioxide rising above Lewotobi Laki-laki volcano, Indonesia. Image credit: JMA/Himawari-9, RAMMB/CIRA, The Watchers. Eruption at Lewotobi volcano on November 7, 2024. Video credit: Eric Blank Following the eruption on November 3, Indonesian authorities issued evacuation orders for 16 000 people living within 7 km (4 miles) of the crater. On November 6, Indonesia announced permanent relocation for thousands of people, although the exact number was not specified.
What Trump's election to the White House could mean for EVs – President-elect Donald Trump's victory over Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to send the U.S. electric vehicle industry into a period of uncertainty. Republicans, led by the former president, have largely condemned EVs, claiming they are being forced upon consumers. Trump has vowed to roll back or eliminate many vehicle emissions standards under the Environmental Protection Agency as well as incentives to promote production and adoption of the vehicles such as the Biden administration's Inflation Reduction Act of 2022.Auto industry insiders and other officials have said it would be difficult for Trump to completely gut the IRA, but he could defund or limit EV subsidies through executive orders or other policy actions.Several people said they would expect Trump to target federalconsumer credits that currently offer up to $7,500 for the purchase of an EV rather than target industrial production credits for companies."The IRA will probably have some adjustments … I don't think the IRA will go away," David Rubenstein, co-founder and co-chairman of The Carlyle Group investment firm, told CNBC on Wednesday. "It has some really good things in it that I think Republicans and Democrats will like." Many of the investments into EV production under the IRA having been taking place in Republican states such as Ohio, South Carolina and Georgia.Automotive executives are also quick to say they don't base investment decisions on who holds the White House, but there are natural adjustments with new administrations. "Anytime there's an administration change, it's an interesting time for the industry because we have to go through new policies and regulations and have to bring new people up to speed on who we are and what we do," David Christ, group vice president and general manager of the Toyota Division in North America, said Wednesday during an Automotive Press Association event near Detroit. "Administrations sometimes change every four years, so we don't really do a lot of modifying the strategy." Several Wall Street analysts have speculated legacy automakers — specifically the "Detroit" companies General Motors,Ford Motor and Chrysler parent Stellantis — would be the biggest winners of a second Trump term and Republican control of Congress."We see F and GM as the main beneficiaries from the Trump administration," BofA Securities analyst John Murphy said in a Wednesday investor note. "The current environmental regime would pressure the core business of legacy [automakers, trucks,] to decarbonize by the end of the decade while shifting quickly to an EV portfolio."GM's aspirations for an "all-electric future" and profitable EV business in the near term are highly reliant on federal tax credits.
The Inflation Reduction Act: A Looming Political Earthquake -If it weren’t for the election season swamping news coverage, odds are more people would be talking about the revelation that, to quote a Bloomberg headline, “The World Bank Somehow Lost Track of at Least $24 Billion.” In fact, that may understate the reality: the World Bank’s “accounting gap” could be as big as $41 billion. The missing funds in question were for “climate finance” projects, “financed by taxpayer dollars from its member countries, the biggest being the US.” According to the Oxfam report that was the source for the Bloomberg story, “There is no clear public record showing where this money went or how it was used, which makes any assessment of its impacts impossible.” It is possible that much, maybe even most, of the missing money went to the intended people and purposes. But only the hopelessly naïve would dismiss the probability of rampant waste, malfeasance, graft, and outright theft as explanations for that “gap.” Spending of such magnitude and velocity with sloppy oversight is an invitation to thieves. But the oversight scandal at the World Bank is chump change compared with the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and its massive planned “climate finance” program. The misnamed IRA is, in the words of its advocates, the “largest climate policy in US history.” The law’s ambitions dwarf those of the World Bank. By various estimates, the IRA will lead to some $3 trillion in direct spending on grants, subsidies, and the like, plus another $3 trillion in related spending induced by mandates and rules. For perspective, that’s far more than the cost of Obamacare, and even more than the $4 trillion the U.S. spent (inflation adjusted) to fight World War II. It makes zero difference which side you’re on regarding the urgency of climate change: the associated policies and spending are almost entirely about trying to create an “energy transition.” Nor does it matter what you think about whether such a transition is sensible (it isn’t): the sheer immensity of IRA spending represents a “whole of government” opportunity for waste, abuse, and fraud on an unprecedented scale.If the likelihood for waste and abuse doesn’t strike you as obvious, consider a few well-documented features of federal spending in general. A March 2024 Government Accountability Office (GAO) report on overall federal government spending in FY2023 found that “more than $175 billion of errors were overpayments—for example, payments to deceased individuals or those no longer eligible for government programs,” and “$44.6 billion were unknown payments.” [emphasis added] The only “good news,” the GAO wrote, was that the “unknown” was $11 billion less than in the previous fiscal year, when Covid money was still being liberally ladled out. Again, only the naïve would conclude that waste, fraud, and abuse didn’t account for any of those “unknown” payments and “errors” in the normal course of our government’s $6 trillion annual budget. Now along comes the IRA, another federal government gusher, with its overall $6 trillion directed at “climate finance,” with far fewer administrative and oversight guardrails than one normally finds in federal programs. What could go wrong?
Will Musk Influence Trump on Climate Change and Electric Vehicles? - The New York Times -- Elon Musk has described himself as “pro-environment” and “super pro climate.” But he also threw himself wholeheartedly into electing as president someone who has dismissed global warming as a hoax.Now, as President-elect Donald J. Trump prepares to enter the White House, one big question is how much sway — if any — Mr. Musk’s views on climate change and clean energy might have in the new administration.During the campaign, Mr. Trump noticeably softened his rhetoric on electric vehicles as he grew more friendly with Mr. Musk, the billionaire chief executive of Tesla. After months of bashing plug-in cars and promising to halt their sales, Mr. Trump backtracked slightly this summer.“I’m constantly talking about electric vehicles, but I don’t mean I’m against them. I’m totally for them,” he told a crowd in Michigan. “I’ve driven them and they are incredible, but they’re not for everybody.”At the time, Mr. Musk claimed credit for Mr. Trump’s apparent shift, telling Tesla shareholders at a June meeting, “I can be persuasive.” Referring to Mr. Trump, he said, “A lot of his friends now have Teslas, and they all love it. And he’s a huge fan of the Cybertruck. So I think those may be contributing factors.” Now Mr. Musk, who spent election night at Mr. Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence and posed for a group photograph with the president-elect’s family, is expected to have a direct line to the White House in the coming months. Mr. Musk’s companies, including Tesla and SpaceX, already make billions from government contracts and federal policies, and he is expected to seek additional advantages for his businesses.
Beaver County plant to close in January, resulting in 140 layoffs -- A Beaver County plant that makes styrene beads will shut down at the start of the year, resulting in 140 layoffs. Styropek, which operates the BVPV Styrenics facility on 265 acres in Monaca along the Ohio River, will close the facility in January, the company wrote in a Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) notice filed with the Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry.“The permanent idling of the Monaca facility will result in the termination of employment of most employees at the site,” the company said in the filing. Some employees will be needed to wind down operations.In a statement, Styropek said it bought the facility, originally built in the 1940s, in 2020 and tried to make improvements to the plant, but that “it would require significant investment to reach the required conditions to meet current market demands.” “Styropek appreciates the dedication and contributions each one of its employees has made over the past four years, and is steadfast on meeting its commitment to them,” CEO Andreas Plettner said in the statement. “The company will provide severance payments and is exploring a variety of outplacement support services.” Styropek first announced the closure plan in August, but said then that a final decision was “subject to further discussions.” Mr. Plettner said at the time that Styropek knew it was buying an “aging facility.” “While we made progress in better operationalizing the plant … the industry has continued to evolve and the economics of the current (expandable polystyrene) market, paired with our long-term goals and sustainability initiatives, make continued investment increasingly difficult.” The beads made at the plant go into various styrofoam products, like cups, containers and packing materials. The company was sued by several environmental groups last year alleging violations of the Clean Water Act, which Styropek has denied. The groups cited state environmental inspections that found beads in stormwater outfalls, on the ground and in the soil around the site.
ADNOC-ADQ JV Award $2 Billion Build Contracts for Chemical Hub -- TA’ZIZ, an Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC) joint venture tasked with establishing a “chemicals and transition fuels ecosystem”, has awarded over $2 billion worth of engineering, procurement and construction contracts for the chemical infrastructure portion of the Al Ruwais project. Targeted to go onstream 2027, the chemical facility is expected to produce 4.7 million tons a year of chemicals by 2028. “TA’ZIZ will produce a range of chemicals, many of which have not previously been manufactured in the UAE, enabling the local manufacture of many new construction, agriculture and healthcare products”, ADNOC said in a statement. “In its initial phase, TA’ZIZ will produce six chemicals: caustic, ethylene dichloride, vinyl chloride monomer, polyvinyl chloride, low-carbon ammonia and methanol”. NMDC Group won the contract for the chemicals port of the project. “When the port is complete, it will facilitate the export of chemicals and transition fuels, ensuring operational connectivity to regional and global markets and enhancing access to imported supplies”, ADNOC said. Meanwhile Rotary Engineering–Abu Dhabi will build the terminal portion, which will have storage facilities, tank-to-jetty pipelines, jetty-to-tank pipelines and inter-site pipelines. “The dedicated chemicals port and terminal will enable exports from the 1 mtpa [million tons per annum] low-carbon ammonia production facility and world-scale methanol plant TAZIZ is building in Ruwais, as well as imports of key materials”, ADNOC said. Al Geemi Contracting won two contracts, one to build utilities including for power transmission, steam and water, and another to build ancillary infrastructure such as internal roads, buildings and security fencing. “A significant portion of the value of the contracts is expected to flow back into the UAE’s economy under ADNOC’s In-Country Value program, boosting economic growth and diversification in Al Dhafra region”, ADNOC added. “The awards will also accelerate TA’ZIZ’s efforts to establish a domestic low-carbon chemicals supply chain, while supporting ADNOC’s chemicals growth strategy and ambitions to become a top five global chemicals player”.
US regulator rejects bid to boost nuclear power to Amazon data center - The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) rejected an effort Friday to allow an Amazon data center to tap into additional power from a nearby Pennsylvania nuclear plant. The decision could throw a wrench in efforts by large technology companies to secure so-called “behind the meter” power from nuclear plants as they seek to meet the growing energy demands of artificial intelligence (AI). In a 2-1 decision, the FERC found the regional grid operator, PJM Interconnection, failed to prove that the changes to the transmission agreement with Susquehanna power plant were necessary. The regulator’s two Republican commissioners, Mark Christie and Lindsay See, outvoted Democratic chair Willie Phillips. The chair’s two fellow Democratic commissioners, David Rosner and Judy Chang, sat out the vote. “Co-location arrangements of the type presented here present an array of complicated, nuanced and multifaceted issues, which collectively could have huge ramifications for both grid reliability and consumer costs,” Christie wrote in a concurring statement. In a dissenting statement, Phillips argued the deal with Amazon “represents a ‘first of its kind’ co-located load configuration” and that Friday’s decision is a “step backward for both electric reliability and national security.” “We are on the cusp of a new phase in the energy transition, one that is characterized as much by soaring energy demand, due in large part to AI, as it is by rapid changes in the resource mix,” Phillips wrote. Amazon purchased a 960-megawatt data center next to the Susquehanna power plant for $650 million earlier this year. Following the announcement, PJM sought to increase the amount of power running directly to the co-located data center. However, the move faced pushback from regional utilities, including Exelon and American Electric Power (AEP). Tech giants have increasingly turned to nuclear energy to power AI. Last month, Google announced a deal to purchase nuclear energy from a fleet of small modular reactors, a new type of nuclear reactor, set to be built by Kairos Power. Just days later, Amazon unveiled a series of deals to invest in advanced nuclear reactors, including an agreement with Northwest Energy to build four small modular reactors in Washington. Nuclear energy operator Constellation Energy also announced a deal with Microsoft in September to reopen Three Mile Island to power the tech giant’s data centers for two decades starting in 2028.
- The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission on Friday rejected an amended interconnection service agreement, or ISA, that would have facilitated expanded power sales to a co-located Amazon data center from a nuclear power plant in Pennsylvania that is majority owned by Talen Energy.
- On a 2-1 vote, with FERC commissioners Mark Christie and Lindsay See in the majority, the agency found that the PJM Interconnection, which filed the amended ISA, failed to show that provisions in the agreement that contravene the grid operator’s existing, or pro forma, ISA were needed due to “specific reliability concerns, novel legal issues or other unique factors.”
- In a dissent, FERC Chairman Willie Phillips said the decision threatened national security and grid reliability. “In failing to accept the agreement, we are rejecting protections that the interconnected transmission owner says will enhance reliability while also creating unnecessary roadblocks to an industry that is necessary for our national security,” Phillips said. FERC commissioners David Rosner and Judy Chang didn’t participate in the case.
FERC’s decision is a surprise to investors, according to the investment firm Jefferies. “From our extensive investor conversations ... very few investors, including us, expected an outright FERC rejection of the ISA,” the company said Sunday. Jefferies expects a “sharp negative share response” for Constellation Energy, Talen, Vistra and Public Service Enterprise Group — companies that own nuclear power plants that could serve data centers.Constellation’s shares fell 12.6% to $225.65/share on Monday morning, while Talen stock dropped 8% to $160/share, PSEG dipped 4.8% to $33.10/share and Vistra declined 6.3% to $112/share.FERC’s order likely adds to uncertainty about the agency’s position on co-location, according to ClearView Energy Partners. “Amid this ambiguity, data centers could pursue more virtual power purchase agreements, at least in the near term, but we are skeptical that interest in co-location with existing, new (or reopened) power plants could completely wane,” the research firm said Monday.The decision comes as data center companies have been exploring co-locating their facilities at existing power plants. FERC held a technical conference on the issue on Friday during which one of the main issues was ensuring that co-located load paid its fair share of grid costs.In the move that led to FERC’s decision on the ISA, Talen Energy said in March it sold a data center campus in Pennsylvania to Amazon’s cloud computing unit, Amazon Web Services, for $650 million. Talen intends to sell power to AWS from its 2,228-MW stake in the Susquehanna nuclear power plant, according to the company.AWS has agreed to buy power from Talen in 120-MW increments for the data center, which could grow to 960 MW, according to Talen.To facilitate the sale of power to the co-located data center, PJM in June asked FERC to approve an amended ISA among the grid operator, Susquehanna Nuclear and PPL Electric Utilities. The amended ISA would have increased the behind-the-meter connection between the power plant and the co-located data center to 480 MW from 300 MW in the existing ISA.American Electric Power and Exelon — on behalf of their utilities —challenged the ISA, in part because they claim it could cause an annual shift of up to $140 million in transmission costs onto PJM ratepayers.In its decision, FERC said PJM failed to meet its high burden to show that its pro forma ISA was inadequate for the Talen-Amazon arrangement at the Susquehanna nuclear plant.PJM claims that the proposed amendments in the ISA address specific circumstances around the Susquehanna interconnection, and that its approval by FERC could be limited to those circumstances, according to Christie and See. However, significant aspects of the proposed non-conforming ISA provisions rely heavily on a co-location guidance document PJM issued after a stakeholder process failed to reach an agreement on rules for co-locating load, according to the decision.“This raises questions regarding whether PJM intends to offer these terms to all similarly situated interconnection customers,” Christie and See said. “We conclude that these provisions demonstrate that PJM has not met its burden to show that these provisions are necessary for any interest unique to the interconnection of the Susquehanna [power plant.]”In his dissent, Phillips said the “first of its kind” co-location arrangement raised unique issues that warrant a non-conforming ISA.Phillips said he would have accepted the proposed ISA and required PJM to submit regular filings to provide transparency into the arrangement’s operations, including on disputed issues, such as back-up service. The decision creates a national security risk, according to Phillips. “Maintaining our nation’s leadership in this ‘era defining’ technology will require a massive and unprecedented investment in the data centers necessary to develop and operate those AI models,” Phillips said. “And make no mistake: Access to reliable electricity is the lifeblood of those data centers. I am deeply concerned that in failing to demonstrate regulatory leadership and flexibility we are putting at risk our country’s pole position on this critically important issue.”
EOG to ramp Ohio Utica activity by 50% next year | Oil & Gas Journal --EOG Resources Inc., Houston, guided to fourth-quarter crude production volumes in line with those of the 3 months ended Sept. 30, but said natural gas production should tick up about 5%. Looking ahead to 2025, executives plan to grow their drilling activity in the Ohio Utica basin by 50%.During third-quarter 2024, EOG Resources averaged crude oil and condensate production of 493,000 b/d, up from 490,700 in second-quarter 2024. Total volumes averaged about 1,076,000 boe/d, an increase of nearly 3% from the prior quarter. For fourth-quarter 2024, chief executive officer Ezra Yacob and the EOG Resources team are forecasting that the latter number will grow to 1,084,500-1,113,200 boe/d as natural gas output climbs to 2.03-2.12 billion cu ft equivalent per day (bcfed).EOG executives have lauded delineation and testing work in the Utica in recent months and indicated they will dedicate more resources to the play (OGJ Online, Sept. 5, 2024). Speaking on a conference call Nov. 8, chief operating officer Jeff Leitzell said the operator will be “up to two full rigs and one full frac fleet by year-end” as the next step to boosting activity.“The Utica provides an ideal operational environment to make significant gains quickly. We have decreased drilling days to drill three-mile laterals 29% year-over-year and have already achieved a record of drilling more than two miles in a single day,” Leitzell said. “We also have made significant gains on the completion side, achieving a nearly 13% increase in completed lateral feet per day compared to last year.”Despite guiding to slightly higher production, the company is sticking to a full-year capital spending budget of about $6.2 billion. Fourth-quarter spending is expected to be $1.23-1.43 billion compared with just under $1.5 billion last quarter.EOG generated a third-quarter net profit of $1.67 billion on revenues of nearly $6 billion. Those numbers were down from $2.03 billion and $6.2 billion in the same period of 2023, when the company’s average oil price was 9% higher.
Utica's Encino Boasts Four Pillars to Claim Top Appalachian Oil Producer After acquiring Chesapeake’s Utica assets in 2018, Encino Energy ascended to claim the titles of the largest oil producer in Appalachia, the most active driller in the region and the seventh largest private U.S. E&P company. Founded in 2017, rapidly growing Encino Energy made waves in the oil and gas industry through its four-pillar investment thesis built upon leveraging market inefficiencies, long-term capital deployment, technological advancements and world class operations. “[Back in 2016], companies were being forced to sell assets and it was difficult for us to see where the buyers for those were going to be, especially larger assets,” Encino Energy CTO Tim Parker told the audience at Hart Energy’s DUG Appalachia Conference & Expo on Nov. 7.“Our argument was that we were going to be able to find better quality assets if we bought larger assets. That meant that we had to have access to a lot of capital,” Parker said.The company’s ability to access large-scale capital enabled it to make strategic acquisitions when others could not, taking advantage of what Parker called a “major market inefficiency.” The second pillar to Encino’s strategy was to adopt a patient capital model, allowing for disciplined investment that paid dividends in the long run. This allowed the company to combine technical work with operational efficiency to reduce risk and enhance returns, Parker said. With the advent of new data technologies, the company was able to harness detailed geological and production data to refine its approach to drilling and production, outperforming expectations and competitors and unlock the Utica’s potential. However, the most defining aspect of the company’s success was its fourth and final pillar: a commitment to operational standards to improve drilling efficiency, reduce costs and maximize production output, Parker said.“The Utica looked to us to have all of the things that we were looking for and we thought it was grossly misunderstood,” Parker said. “The datasets that we had access to enabled us to see what needed to be done and to make us very confident that this was going to prove that it would deliver the kinds of returns that our investors expected.” When the company acquired the Utica assets, it inherited an asset base with more than 700 producing wells across nearly 900,000 acres. Since the acquisition, the company has grown its acreage to approximately 1.1 million acres and now produces from more than 1,000 wells. Oil production has nearly tripled and the company has unlocked some of the most productive oil locations in the region. The company also has made major strides with its oil takeaway capacity.“We are now routinely delivering wells with better than 1,500 bbl/d of initial production, and we’ve turned the play from being something that was uneconomic with zero inventory, into something where we have more than 10 years’ worth of inventory that we recognize today of high-quality oil locations,” Parker said. By drilling more efficiently—32% faster than other operators—Encino was able to outperform competitors in well completions and lateral footage drilled per day. The company has not only driven operational excellence but also established itself as a leader in sustainability. With 87% of water used in operations being recycled, zero routine flaring and no spills, the company has made major steps in reducing its methane intensity, setting new standards in environmental stewardship. “We have gotten distinctly better year after year after year, and that all translates into real economic returns,” Parker said.“I’m sure that there are other people who argue that their economics are maybe a little better, but we really don’t care. The unescapable conclusion here is that the economics that we’re producing in the Utica are world class and we’re very proud that we have been able to do that.”
Gulfport Spent $52M on Leases, Still Loves the Ohio Marcellus -Marcellus Drilling News --- Gulfport Energy, the third-largest driller in the Ohio Utica Shale (by the number of wells drilled), reported its third quarter 2024 numbers yesterday. The company drills Utica and Marcellus wells in Ohio. It also has an active drilling program in the Oklahoma SCOOP shale play. Gulfport’s net daily production for 3Q24 averaged 1,057.2 MMcfe/d (1.06 Bcfe/d), up slightly from 3Q23’s average of 1,056.9 MMcfe/d. Production in 3Q consisted of 861.6 MMcfe/d in the Utica/Marcellus (81%) and 195.6 MMcfe/d in the SCOOP (19%). The production mix comprised approximately 91% natural gas, 6% natural gas liquids (NGLs), and 3% oil and condensate. The company has spent $52 million on maintenance leasehold and land investment so far this year, pointing out that leasing still happens.
MPLX to Build New Harmon Creek III Gas Processing in PA Marcellus --Marcellus Drilling News - In late 2015, MPLX (i.e., Marathon Petroleum) bought out and merged in the Utica Shale’s premier midstream company, MarkWest Energy, for $15 billion (seeMarkWest Energy Investors/Unitholders Approve Merger with Marathon). The “new” MarkWest, aka MPLX, plays on a much larger stage now, including ownership and operation of major assets in the Permian Basin and the Bakken Shale, in addition to the Marcellus/Utica. Yesterday, MPLX issued its third quarter 2024 update with some exciting news for the Marcellus: MPLX will add a 300 MMcf/d (million cubic feet per day) processing plant and 40,000 bpd (barrels per day) de-ethanizer to its Harmon Creek facility in southwestern Pennsylvania (Smith Township, Washington County).
Deep Well Services Company In Southwest PA To Be Bought By United Arab Emirates Company - A joint venture based in the United Arab Emirates will acquire one of the region's largest energy companies Deep Well Services for $223 million. Enersol — owned by ADNOC Drilling Co. and Alpha Dhabi Holding PJSC — signed an agreement to acquire a 95% equity stake in Zelienople-based Deep Well. The transaction is subject to regulatory approval. Deep Well is an oilfield services company that provides well drilling and completion services for many of the country’s biggest oil and natural gas producers around the United States and elsewhere in the world. Deep Well is the 11th-biggest energy company in southwestern Pennsylvania with about 600 employees, according to the Pittsburgh Business Times Book of Lists. The company was founded in 2008 and is privately held with Mark Marmo as its founder and president. “This partnership will allow our company to grow domestically and into new international markets, creating unmatched value for our employees, customers, and esteemed shareholders,” Deep Well Services said in a statement on LinkedIn. Enersol said in a statement Deep Well Services “will play a role in contributing to the development of the UAE’s conventional and unconventional energy resources” and work with ADNOC Drilling’s $1.7 billion contract to build 144 unconventional wells. Deep Well has long been an innovator in oilfield services and has worked with at least 70 natural gas and oil companies. Data released by Enersol said Deep Well had $205 million in revenue in 2023 and has free cash flow of more than 10%. “DWS’s attractive operational and financial profile is aligned with Enersol’s acquisition strategy to acquire, and invest in, multiple businesses and foster a scalable portfolio, enhancing market value and optimizing operational efficiencies,” Enersol said. Enersol has made four energy-related acquisitions already in 2023.
PA Re-Adds One Rig to 13; National Rig Count Even 2nd Week @ 585 -Marcellus Drilling News --Two weeks ago, Pennsylvania lost another rig, going from 13 rigs down to 12 rigs, the lowest that state has operated in the last 17 years (see PA Drops Another Rig to 17-Year Low; National Rig Count Even @ 585). Last week, PA picked up one rig, so the tally is back to 13. It’s still not great, but we suppose it’s progress. A little over two months ago (as of August 23), PA operated 21 rigs. We went through a period of rapid rig loss in the Keystone State. Last week, Ohio and West Virginia maintained their respective counts of 10 active rigs each.
2 Radical Groups Appeal CNX Gas & Water Pipeline Project in SWPA -Marcellus Drilling News -- CNX Resources filed a request with the Pennsylvania Dept. of Environmental Protection (DEP) in April 2023 to build two pipelines—two for natural gas—along a 13.9-mile route in Bell, Loyalhanna, and Salem Townships in Westmoreland County. An additional 4-mile pipeline would be built for water. Called the Slickville Trunkline Project, the DEP originally told CNX its application was “incomplete.” The DEP later told CNX (in March of this year) the agency considered the application “withdrawn” because it hadn’t received any more information (see Temporary Setback for CNX Gas & Water Pipeline Project in SWPA). Since then, CNX was able to provide the information the DEP wanted, and in early October, the DEP issued permits for the project, which has torqued off the antis.
66 Water Withdrawals Now Restricted In Susquehanna River Basin Due To Low-Flow Water Conditions, Most Shale Gas-related --On November 7, the Susquehanna River Basin Commission Hydrologic Conditions Monitor reported another increase in low stream flows that have triggered water withdrawal restrictions on water users, including multiple shale gas development water withdrawals.A total of 66 water withdrawals are operating under water use restrictions-- most are shale gas-related-- and five more have hydrologic conditions approaching restrictions.Shale gas development-related water withdrawals are often affected first by low stream flows because they take water from smaller streams. Contact the Susquehanna River Basin Commission to report suspected violations of these requirements.Visit SRBC’s Hydrologic Conditions Monitor webpage to learn more. Water withdrawals with restrictions found on the Hydrologic Conditions Monitor can be looked up on SRBC’s Search for Projects webpage.
CEO of PA Fracking Company Says Frackers Idle, Hitting Rock Bottom -Marcellus Drilling News -- Dan Doyle is president of Reliance Well Services, a hydraulic fracturing (oilfield services, or OFS) company established in 2008 and based in Pennsylvania. Reliance works throughout the Appalachian and Illinois Basins. In an article published by Doyle on the OilPrice.com website, he says low natural gas prices, high interest rates, and reallocation of capital have led to a slump in demand for oilfield services like those offered by his company. Doyle said, “Frac’ers never want to admit that they’re idle, but we’re idle.”It’s hard for OFS companies to make money on the thin margins at which they operate, and investors are staying away. Doyle says in the article below that there are “measly 17 frack fleets covering the Marcellus and the Utica.” He calls this an unthinkably low number, a “hope-to-God bottom.” He provides a frank assessment of the OFS space, saying it’s overbuilt. If you took an OFS company CEO to the local bar and chatted him up “off the record,” this is what he might say after a few beers... Frac’ers never want to admit that they’re idle, but we’re idle. We need producers to work and right now they’re not working very much. Blame that on low natural gas prices, high interest rates, capital reallocation, stock buybacks, outsized dividends, election year follies, declining lease quality, burdensome regulations, or whatever other reason you like, but producers just aren’t working much these days. Inflation hasn’t helped our cause either. $58 oil in 2018 is the equivalent of $72 oil today. As a counter, frac pricing has nudged up, but nothing close to what we’ve lost to inflation. Eating into our margins too is discounting. Every attempt is being made by services companies to get E&Ps to work. But to be sober about it, not much is working. Consider the VanEck Oil Services ETF (ticker: OIH) in which small and midcap oil field services companies (OFS’s) make up 80% of the fund. Oilfield services companies just aren’t garnering investor favor these days. A year ago, OIH was trading at $337. Today it’s at a lethargic $272. That’s a 19% decline against a 31% S&P gain. Note too the April high of $353, the same month in which oil also hit a 52-week high ($87/bbl). That’s a spoiler alert. OIH tracks WTI. Lying between the WTI and OIH trades is producer sentiment. Without a work-on bias for E&Ps, OFS’s suffer. All this talk of burgeoning LNG markets in Asia and Europe, and natural gas as a transition fuel, and yet the polestar of natural gas production, the Marcellus/Utica, has seen frac spreads drop from 40 to 30 a few years ago, to the current 17. That’s 17 frack spreads feeding transcontinental pipelines and the northeastern power generation machine. Maybe someday some movement, or some jury decision in an otherwise activist court, will reverse this anti-carbon bias, allowing demand and perennially low gas prices to rise and LNG terminals to flourish, but in the meantime, entire frac fleets sit by idly rusting into grown-over lots. That makes for OFS blood in the water, and the E&Ps know it. Adrift and bleeding out are the drillers and cementers, frackers and wire-liners, all of us stuck in each other’s miserable company, quietly speculating on who will go to the bottom first. Below bottom really, because one of us will always reach down further, right through the bottom of profitability into the muck of chasing market share—a euphemism for bankruptcy. Over the years I’ve seen this price capitulation play out uninterruptedly, usually coming from the same group that talks up horsepower over profitability, that sells jobs at prices that miss the costs of pumping, let alone maintenance programs, cap ex replacements, (replacements, not expansions) benefits, salaries, Christmas parties. It’s playing out now at one of our frac camps. An out-of-state group rolled in and took work below even our costs. And we have the logistical benefits of being locals. But that’s their right. Anyone can lose money any way they want. But surely, they must understand, right? That service companies that go to the bottom, perish on the bottom, especially with their self-assurances of “this time it’ll be different.” Our willingness to capitulate to price deflation, our bloodletting, will never stop. And just the same, E&Ps will never stop exploiting because when one OFS fails there has always been another in a conga line of “next, next, next.” But what to do with the measly 17 frack fleets covering the Marcellus and the Utica? That’s an unthinkably low number, a hope-to-God bottom. It’s worse than last call at a singles bar. Of course you’re going to do something stupid, especially if you’re a services company desperate for work. Our survivor’s instinct will overrule good sense. In a stair step of lows to lower lows, one of us will succumb to the neural onset of a death wish, so desperate is our need to please our E&P masters, and—of course—to work, even if it means losses. It’s the buckets bailing out the sinking ship moment, in which, predictably, the end result is always the same—one of us taking a Swaney off the precipice of measured patience, financial prudence, good common sense. Following will be the inevitable trip to Sherwin Williams, when the colors of the most aggressive price cutters is painted over by the survivors. BJ, C&J, Superior, and Producers, all gone but their equipment living on under fresh coats of new paint. click for larger version Look above at the frack spreads and the rig count and the obvious answer is we’ve overbuilt; too much money chasing too little work. Look too and see if you don’t see “consolidation” in the graph. Like the E&P’s recent M&A run, the OFS sector may have a few more deals to go as well. If there isn’t room at the table for everyone, simply remove a chair or two. There’s more for everyone that way, at least for a while. Eventually, the industry will turn back on, but with it will come new demands for newer equipment, modifications, and even better practices than the gains in efficiencies we’re logging these days. Frac spreads started out as Tier 2, progressed to cleaner burning Tier 4, then dual fuel and now electric. Bringing out older equipment won’t satisfy the E&Ps any longer. ESG may be falling out of favor, but climate accountability may stick and with it demands for expensive things like electric fleets. Just as we serve our masters, the E&Ps must serve theirs—climate minded bankers and investors—and the occasional states’ AG who’s higher-office aspirations are generally marked by a rallying call of “just stop oil.” In the meantime, service companies will continue to struggle but the best of us have been built to struggle. What other industry sees constantly recurring swings in revenue of twenty, thirty, forty percent? How many other industries are constantly forced without much warning into right-sizing their enterprise, hiring, laying off, insurance-on, insurance-off, pleading with bankers, ignoring bankers, seeking investors, ignoring investors, maneuvering and not maneuvering, in a tug of war, a Jekyll and Hyde state of schizophrenic paranoia. Had Freud lived through the shale revolution, the Great Depression, the OPEC market share fixation of 2015 and 2016, the pandemic, and 2024, he’d have come up with a name for us, a condition, something about overachieving to the point of sure demise, something about working and innovating ourselves right into the poor house. So far, I’m putting the blame on my OFS brethren. But that’s like blaming the chicken for the wolf that ate it. It’s really the E&Ps. They’re the masters. Me and my service- side brothers and sisters are just the dogs. We jump, sit and bark at their command so long as we have spare capacity. And then, when E&Ps are working and there isn’t a single piece of equipment left in the yard, we dutifully remain obedient and self- denigrating because we can’t help ourselves. If there was an OFS Anonymous, it would be the best attended meeting in Texas, bigger even than half-off wings night at Little Woodrow’s Bar and Grill in Midland. To be fair, I really don’t know how E&Ps do it, especially in the gassier shale plays, which with the rise in associated gas is becoming more of them. The margins are just so thin, even with natural gas prices up a tick, though still abysmally low, seemingly forever low. But sorry guys. For now, this pity party is for us service folk alone. Most times it’s about you, but not this time. This time it’s for us, your best friend; really, man’s best friend.*
Cecil Township Supervisors In Washington County Adopt 2,500 Foot Setback From Shale Gas Well Pads From Homes, Businesses, 5,000 Foot Setback From Hospitals, Schools - On November 4, the Cecil Township Board of Supervisors in Washington County adopted an ordinance establishing setbacks from shale gas well pads of 2,500 feet from homes and businesses as “protected structures” and 5,000 feet from schools and hospitals. The proposed 25-page ordinance also gives property owners the ability to waive the setback, however, all property owners within the 2,500 foot setback must agree to a waiver. The setbacks for schools and hospitals cannot be waived under the ordinance. Well pads must also be located not less than 1,000 feet from any residential lot line. The ordinance also includes provisions requiring an environmental impact analysis to “describe, identify and analyze all environmental aspects of the site and of neighboring properties that may be affected by the proposed operations or the ultimate use proposed to be conducted on the site.” The ordinance also sets requirements for other oil and gas development facilities “which employ the use of compressors, motors or engines as part of the operations and/or produce air-contaminant emissions or offensive odors, subsurface facilities, including horizontal drilling facilities, gathering system facilities and production facilities.” Many residents’ pleas to the Board of Supervisors for increased setback distances have been based on their negative experiences of living near well pads and or the growing list of peer-reviewed research linking poor health outcomes to people living in close proximity to fracking. That public engagement has been crucial. This is not a ban on drilling in Cecil Township. [MDN: That statement is not correct. It is a defacto ban on all new drilling.] There are five existing well pads that will be grandfathered in and that cover more than 60% of the township. In addition, land owners who want to waive the 2,500 foot setback and have drilling on their property can do so, as long as everyone within that buffer zone agrees. [MDN: A moot point as some will never agree.] The ordinance was as a follow-up to a series of four public hearings held by the Township on the issue of regulating shale gas well pads. A fifth hearing was held right before the Supervisors voted on November 4.*
3rd Circuit Sides with PA Antis’ Appeal of REAE Permits 2nd Time --Marcellus Drilling News - Williams’ Transco Regional Energy Access Expansion (REAE) project expands the mighty Transco pipeline in Pennsylvania and New Jersey to deliver an extra 829 MMcf/d of Marcellus gas to Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Maryland. About 450,000 MMcf/d of the total capacity went online in late 2023 along Transco’s Leidy Line in Pennsylvania. Another 160 MMcf/d went online in PA and NJ in early July. On July 26, FERC granted Williams’s request to bring online the final 219 MMcf/d ahead of schedule (see FERC OKs Request to Place Balance of Transco REAE Online Early). Two PA-based anti-fossil groups are still trying to get permits for the project in PA invalidated. They won a minor victory in that regard with a federal court yesterday.
8 Mo. After NY Legislature Passed CO2 Frack Ban, Gov Has Not Signed -- Nearly eight months ago, the New York Senate passed a bill the Assembly had previously passed to ban the use of carbon dioxide in shale drilling (so-called “CO2 fracking”). Democrat Gov. Kathy Hochul, a reliable anti-fossil fueler, still has not signed the bill into law. What the heck is going on? Why is she missing in action? We've written about this a few times, beginning two months after the bill was passed (see our NY CO2 fracking stories here). No matter why she hasn't yet signed the bill, the longer it goes unsigned, the better chance we who live in NY have of trying to persuade Hochul not to sign it. We hesitate to offer any hope, but while there’s still time, there’s hope, however small it may
Marcellus Waiting to Exhale But Held Back by Regional, Economic Factors | Hart Energy --The U.S. natural gas market is in the midst of a sea change. Prices, adjusted for inflation, are as low as they’ve been in the last 30 years. Energy companies, however, continue to spend billions on new infrastructure in the hopes of a massive demand increase expected to hit before the end of the decade. Yet most of that development is happening on the Gulf Coast, via pipelines in Texas and LNG plants in Louisiana. The nation’s largest gas field on the eastern side of the U.S., the Marcellus Shale, has seen little of the transformations shaking the industry along the Gulf Coast. The Marcellus has steadily produced natural gas for more than a century and has plenty of reserves for a future of increased demand for exports and power generation. While producers continue to develop the region and extol the basin’s low-cost, high-quality virtues, low prices have led to flattened and—in some cases reduced—production. CEOs are often fighting political battles for permission to build infrastructure. An appeals court recently revoked a permit for a pipeline infrastructure project that was already operational, and the Mountain Valley Pipeline faced never-ending protests and court actions until the government intervened. “It’s never been more important for us to produce energy in this country—whether it’s increasing LNG exports to protect our allies, addressing the situation in Ukraine or powering the AI boom that’s taking place,” Toby Rice, president and CEO of EQT Corp., told Oil and Gas Investor (OGI). EQT bases its operations primarily in the Marcellus and the Upper Devonian in West Virginia. “It’s also never been more difficult to produce energy in this country. The last pipeline built in this country took an act of Congress. In order to provide the energy we need, we have to get back to building things.” The Middle Devonian Marcellus Shale stretches from the northeast in New York, to the mid-Atlantic in Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Maryland, and to the Midwest in Ohio. The formation is generally about a mile beneath the surface and about 1,000 feet above the Utica Shale. Due to the different depths, the two basins provide different products. The Utica is a major producer of oil and NGL. The Marcellus provides mostly dry gas, meaning it’s composed primarily of methane and requires little processing before being shipped to market. API describes it as the second-largest natural gas find on Earth. There are advantages and disadvantages to the Marcellus’ makeup. As of a result of its shallower depth, it’s cheaper to drill into the Marcellus than the Utica. Dry gas also costs less to commercialize because of lower processing fees. However, NGL can be a useful buffer for producers when natural gas prices dip. The NGL composite price held steady for much of the first half of the year at $6.91/MMbtu, while the cost of natural gas had fallen by about one-third, the Energy Information Administration said. The Marcellus does produce some NGL, but natural gas is the primary product by far. Pennsylvania led the basin in gas production, producing 85% of the region’s output in 2024, according to Rextag. “The United States has a vast natural gas resource in the Marcellus, but supplies are constrained due to lack of infrastructure. Costly pipeline project delays occur due to duplicative permitting processes, a lack of cooperation among regulatory agencies, and inadequate judicial review standards,” Larsen told OGI. “In fact, between 2013 and 2022, natural gas demand has grown by 43%, with only 25% growth in infrastructure to handle it. We can, and should, modernize the federal permitting process to benefit all energy sources, not just natural gas. Specifically, we are calling on Congress to restore the balance intended in the Natural Gas Act by removing the one-state veto power loophole in the current law.”
U.S. exports of ethane and ethane-based petrochemicals rose 135% from 2014 to 2023 - U.S. exports of ethane and ethane-based petrochemicals reached an all-time high of 21.6 MMt in 2023, up 135% since the U.S. began exporting ethane in 2014 and 17% more than in 2022, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The rapid expansion of U.S. ethane and ethane-based petrochemical exports has been fueled by the growth in domestic ethane production, which has increased with the country’s natural gas production and the buildout of export and production infrastructure. Ethane is a natural gas liquid that’s primarily extracted from raw natural gas during processing. It’s mainly used as a feedstock for ethylene production, one of the most important building blocks in the petrochemical industry. Ethylene is a gas used to produce a wide range of products, including plastics, resins, and synthetic rubber. All elements of the ethane value chain, are produced in, consumed in, and exported from the United States, including ethane, ethylene, polyethylene, and other ethylene derivatives. We publish data on U.S. ethane production, exports, and product supplied (deliveries to domestic consumers); the U.S. Census Bureau publishes export data for ethane and ethane-derived products. U.S. ethane exports. The U.S. started exporting ethane in 2014 via pipeline to petrochemical plants in Canada. In 2016, the United States began exporting ethane to countries in Europe from marine export terminals. U.S. ethane export capacity has increased since 2016 with the completion of two new pipelines and three more marine export terminals—Marcus Hook, Pennsylvania; Morgan’s Point, Texas; and Nederland, Texas. In addition, the number of destination countries continued to grow along with the fleet of specialty built tankers. U.S. ethane exports increased to a record high of 3.0 MMmt in 2023, up 12% from 2022. In 2023, U.S. ethane was mostly exported to China, which accounted for 45% (1.4 MMmt) of U.S. ethane exports, followed by India (16%), Canada (14%), Norway (9%), and the United Kingdom (7%). U.S. ethane exports to China increased fastest between 2022 and 2023, rising 35% last year. China’s Satellite Petrochemical has begun ethylene production at two new ethane crackers since 2021, which has increased domestic ethane demand in China. Ethane exports to Norway rose the second fastest, rising 32% to 288,000 metric tons in 2023. Other importers of U.S. ethane include Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Mexico, and Sweden. Ethane’s high ethylene yields and cost advantages over naphtha in ethylene production have driven export volumes of ethane higher since 2014. Most petrochemical crackers have some flexibility in switching between ethane and naphtha as a feedstock, depending on the relative profitability of each feedstock. In the United States, cracking ethane to produce ethylene has historically generated higher profit margins compared with the margins from cracking naphtha, the most common feedstock in Western Europe and East Asia. Global petrochemical manufacturers looking to secure low-cost ethane feedstock to produce ethylene are developing new petrochemical crackers and associated infrastructure.After ethylene is processed by a polymerization reactor or another production unit, petrochemical manufacturers can develop intermediate products such as:
- Low-density polyethylene (LDPE): a thermoplastic used for more flexible plastic products such as dispensing bottles, plastic bags, and trays
- High-density polyethylene (HDPE): a thermoplastic used for more rigid plastic products such as piping, water gallon jugs, cutting boards, and motor oil jugs
- Ethylene alpha olefins: used for products such as flexible packaging, molding, and car applications
The United States exported ethylene derivatives to over 100 nations in 2023. Unlike ethane and ethylene, which require cryogenic cooling to turn them from a gas to a liquid, ethylene derivatives do not require special handling and can be exported or imported through any port or overland route capable of handling containerized traffic.Total U.S. ethylene-derivative exports grew 20% to 16.9 MMt from 2022 to 2023, led by a 69% increase (2.2 MMt) in exports to Asia. U.S. exports to Canada fell by 10% to 1.5 MMt; exports to Mexico grew 3% to 2.4 MMt in 2023. Until 2017, North American destinations, particularly Canada and Mexico, accounted for the largest share of U.S. polyethylene and other ethylene-derivative exports.Canada and Mexico do not impose tariffs on exports of U.S. ethane-derived chemicals because of reciprocal free-trade agreements. These countries also benefit from proximity and being able to import these products over land at lower cost compared with waterborne imports. However, exports to overseas destinations have also grown since 2017, with the exception of 2021 when the global pandemic led to lower demand.
US shale gas production has declined for the first time in a quarter century - Natural gas production from shale rocks in the United States decreased by 1% in the first nine months of 2024, reaching 2,270 million cubic meters per day, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). If this trend continues through the end of the year, the US shale gas production decline will be recorded for the first time at least since 2000. The key reason was reduction of gas production at the Haynesville shale formation located in the states of Arkansas, Louisiana and Texas: according to the results of the first nine months of 2024, production there decreased by 12%, and in absolute terms – by 50 million cubic meters per day. Production from the Utica formation in Pennsylvania, New York, Ohio and West Virginia decreased by 10% (by more than 15 million cubic meters per day) over the same period, while production from the Marcellus formation, an Appalachian basin part, remained virtually unchanged. As a result, despite an increase in gas production in the Permian basin (by 45 million cubic meters per day), total shale gas production declined for the first time in a quarter century. The dynamics of gas production is strongly influenced by falling gas prices. For example, in September 2024, the average gas price at Henry Hub was 15% lower than in September 2023 and 71% lower than in September 2024 ($81 vs $95 vs $278 per thousand cubic meters). The lower prices forced the companies to curtail production in the least profitable wells. According to Baker Hughes, in September 2023, the average daily number of active drilling rigs at the Haynesville formation decreased by 53% compared to January 2023, the latest high. In turn, the Utica Formation’s active rig count halved over the same period, and the Marcellus Formation’s rig count decreased by 36%. Geologic differences also play an important role. On the Haynesville formation, dry gas is produced, and on the Utica and Marcellus formations, it is dry gas together with gas condensate, while in the Permian basin, gas is produced together with oil. This explains the difference in production dynamics. In the Permian basin, gas production is growing together with oil production, including under the impact of relatively high prices: in the first nine months of 2024, the average price of WTI oil was 3% higher than between January and September 2023 ($77.7 vs $75.1 per barrel). Overall, shale rocks accounted for 79% of US gas production. Production from conventional reserves increased by 6% (to almost 620 million cubic meters per day) in the first nine months of 2024. As a result, the US total gas production remained at the same level as last year.
With Trump presidency looming, Biden plans to publish draft gas export study this year --The Biden administration plans to publish a draft study by the end of this year that could have implications for the future of new gas exports. The administration said earlier this year that it would work to more fully assess the impacts of exporting U.S.-produced natural gas on climate change, national security and economics. Since that time, the Energy Department has worked on studying those impacts. An energy official told The Hill on Thursday the department planned to have a draft analysis out before the end of this year. Publication will be followed by a 60-day comment period. Bloomberg reported Thursday that the administration planned to finish the study this month. It’s not clear whether the final version of the study will be completed before President-elect Trump takes office. But if it does, the study’s findings could put information on the record that conflicts with an anticipated effort from the Trump administration to rapidly approve more gas export facilities.The Biden administration announced the assessment in conjunction with its since-halted pauseon approving new gas export terminals. It said at the time that it was taking on the study because current analyses may not “adequately account” for factors such as climate change.
Consumers Energy completes Mid-Michigan (U.S.) natural gas pipeline - Consumers Energy completes Mid-Michigan (U.S.) natural gas pipeline Consumers Energy completes Mid-Michigan (U.S.) natural gas pipeline 11/8/2024 Consumers Energy has completed its Mid-Michigan Pipeline, replacing and upgrading 55 mi of natural gas transmission pipeline in Clinton, Shiawassee, Ingham, Livingston and Washtenaw counties. Mid-Michigan is the last in a series of major projects representing a nearly $1.5-B investment to modernize the company’s natural gas system, ensuring the major arteries that keep natural gas flowing to homes and businesses are as safe and reliable as possible. Consumers Energy finished work on the Mid-Michigan Pipeline in time for this winter heating season. The project replaced 20-in. pipeline dating to the 1940s with 36-in. pipeline that will carry large volumes of natural gas more safely and reliably. “Our friends and neighbors count on us to safely and affordably heat their homes and businesses, and we take that responsibility seriously,” said David Hicks, the Consumers Energy vice president who oversaw the project. “The Mid-Michigan Pipeline and our other pipeline projects play a central role in Consumers Energy’s Natural Gas Delivery Plan to ensure we meet Michigan’s needs for decades to come.” The pipeline also illustrated Consumers Energy’s commitment to protecting the planet. This spring, officials released two dozen young turtles rescued from potential harm during the project’s construction. Consumers Energy planted wildflower seeds along the pipeline’s route to attract birds, bees and other pollinators. The Mid-Michigan Pipeline’s first phase, from Williamston to Ovid, was completed last year. This year, crews worked through Sleepy Hollow State Park to bring the project to completion, working carefully to protect natural resources and reduce the environmental footprint. This decade, Consumers Energy also has completed the four-county Saginaw Trail Pipeline in 2020 and the South Oakland Macomb Network, which finished in 2022. Consumers Energy is Michigan’s largest energy provider, providing natural gas and/or electricity to 6.8 MM of the state’s 10 MM residents in all 68 Lower Peninsula counties.
Enbridge 'Ideally Situated' for Rising North American Natural Gas Power Demand, CEO Says --Lifted by a huge expansion of its U.S. natural gas utility network and myriad projects across North America in the onshore and offshore, Calgary-based Enbridge Inc. is gearing up for expanded power generation growth in the years ahead. Bar chart showing Enbridge's estimated natural gas growth across North America. Enbridge, which reports in Canadian dollars (C$1.00/US72 cents), issued its third quarter results in late October. CEO Greg Ebel was joined by his executive team to deliver the results and provide guidance.Since the second quarter, the midstream giant’s backlog is up by C$3 billion, reaching C$27 billion at the end of September, Ebel told investors. The backlog extends from Western Canada to the deepwater Gulf of Mexico (GOM), tying service to LNG terminals, natural gas utilities, oil infrastructure and increasingly, renewables.
LNG producer Cheniere tops 3Q profit estimates, raises annual forecast - Top U.S. LNG exporter Cheniere Energy on Thursday raised its annual core profit forecast after higher demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) helped it top 3Q estimates. Results benefited from higher Asian spot LNG prices, which rose to their highest level in more than eight months in August, and an increase in exports. Cheniere exported 158 LNG cargoes in the quarter, up about 4% from the year-ago period. Its shares rose nearly 5% to $190.42 in midday trading. The company raised its full-year adjusted core profit outlook to between $6 B and $6.3 B, from its previous range of $5.7 B to $6.1 B. Cheniere's Corpus Christi Stage 3 project, an export facility in South Texas, is expected to soon start introducing natural gas into one unit, which will produce the first LNG before the end of the year, Cheniere CEO Jack Fusco said. Cheniere expects three trains of the 10-metric MMtpy expansion to produce LNG next year, which will add 3 MM tonnes of the superchilled gas to the spot market, he said. Sales of those cargoes will help provide funding for the capital requirements of the Stage 3 project's capital expenditures, said finance chief Zach Davis. On the proposed 20 MMtpy expansion at its Sabine Pass, Louisiana, facility, Cheniere said it is making "good progress" in discussions with potential buyers. Chief Commercial Officer Anatol Feygin said Cheniere expects continued growth in LNG demand from Asia, while Europe would remain stable in its gas consumption through the middle of the next decade.
Energy Transfer Readies FID on Permian Warrior in ‘Weeks,’ with Lake Charles LNG Accelerated on Trump Win --Energy Transfer LP is inching closer toward final investment decisions (FID) on two of its largest natural gas projects, management said Wednesday. Map showing Energy Transfer's Warrior Pipeline and other gas takeaway projects in South Texas. Expand Co-CEO Marshall McCrea during the second quarter earnings call in August had promised an FID for the Warrior natural gas pipeline would be announced during the 3Q2024 results, that did not come to fruition. However, “We are very likely within weeks of getting to FID. We're not there yet, but we've made a lot of strides.” Steel for the 42-inch diameter pipeline’s construction has already been purchased. The company also has begun examining ways to further expand the proposed system’s initial 1.5-2 Bcf/d capacity by another 700-800 MMcf/d.
Plaquemines Clears Another Regulatory Hurdle as Startup Nears — Venture Global LNG Inc. has received authorization from federal regulators to introduce hazardous fluid, or feed gas, to the high pressure and low pressure fuel gas systems and the warm flare system at its Plaquemines LNG project in Louisiana. “This is another step closer to initial liquefaction, as it helps move the entire pretreatment system closer to startup,” Criterion Research LLC said. The company has been working to bring the 20 million tons/year (Mt/y) Plaquemines facility online. It had been expected to bring up to six of the 36 smaller modular trains online by the end of the year, but analysts have pushed the timeline back as it awaits regulatory approvals.
Glenfarne Looks to Push Texas LNG Project to FID with Kiewit EPC Contract --Despite regulatory challenges, Glenfarne Energy Transition LLC is pushing forward to finalize the design of its 4 million ton/year (Mt/y) capacity Texas LNG project with the selection of its engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) partner. The LNG project developer disclosed it signed a lump-sum turnkey EPC contract with subsidiaries of Kiewit Corp. for its export project proposed in Brownsville, TX. But, before reaching a final investment decision (FID) on the terminal, Glenfarne CEO Brendan Duval said Texas LNG would be working with Kiewit to finalize engineering requirements. “Texas LNG received immense interest from world-class contractors that wanted to be involved in the project,” Duval said. “Kiewit’s proposal, capability and partnership vision for Texas LNG, as well as their significant execution and implementation expertise on the U.S. Gulf Coast, made a substantial impression on our project team.”
Sapphire Gas Looks to Boost ‘Constrained’ U.S. LNG Industry with International Container Exports -Small-scale LNG player Sapphire Gas Solutions is leaning on its experience with containerized transport to supply U.S. natural gas volumes to logistically challenged international markets. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) granted authorization for Sapphire to export 51.75 Bcf to free trade agreement (FTA) and non-FTA (NFTA) countries until the end of 2050. While long-term NFTA authorizations for large-scale LNG facilities have been impacted by a permit pause since the beginning of the year, DOE officials have said small-scale projects would be unaffected. Using transport units certified by the International Organization for Standardization (ISO), referred to as ISO containers, Sapphire CEO Sam Thigpen said the firm is looking to fill a growing gap in the international market for easily deployable and reliable volumes of natural gas.
Sempra Focuses on Port Arthur LNG Phase 2 Progress as Regulatory Risk Shrinks -With interest from long-term offtakers increasing and an end to regulatory issues in sight, Sempra Infrastructure management said the second phase of Port Arthur LNG in Texas is taking center stage. The LNG and Mexico infrastructure arm of San Diego-based Sempra is currently in the early phases of construction on the 13 million tons/year (Mt/y) Port Arthur LNG project and began commercializing its second phase. The two-train expansion at the facility southeast of Houston would increase export capacity to 26 Mt/y. In June, Saudi Arabian Oil Co., aka Saudi Aramco, became an anchor partner in the project, signing a heads of agreement for 5 Mt/y of offtake and a 25% stake. A non-free trade agreement (FTA) export permit for Port Arthur Phase 2 was delayed earlier in the year due to the Biden administration’s regulatory pause.
Commonwealth LNG Seeks Certification to Provide ‘Wellhead-to-Water’ Net-Zero Cargoes --Commonwealth LNG and its exploration and production affiliate Kimmeridge Texas Gas LLC (KTG) announced Friday that their operations would be certified by MiQ to better meet international demand for low-emissions natural gas supplies. The certification process for the 9.5 million tons/year Commonwealth facility being developed in Louisiana is expected to start within one month of reaching full commercial operations. Eagle Ford Shale-focused KTG, which produces 400 MMcfe/d, is expected to complete its certification in 2025. Kimmeridge Energy Management Co. acquired a 90% interest in Commonwealth in June. The company is targeting a final investment decision for the terminal next year. Management has said it expects its first cargo to be loaded in 2029.
NextDecade Advances FID Talks for Rio Grande Train 4 -NextDecade Corp. provided updates on the Phase 1 construction currently underway of Rio Grande LNG. The project received the necessary authorizations for construction from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and Department of Energy, NextDecade said in a Nov. 7 press release. Phase 1 development includes liquefaction Trains 1, 2 and 3, with a total capacity of 17.61 million tonnes per annum (mtpa). For the facility’s Trains 4 and 5, the company is awaiting a positive final investment decision (FID), which is still subject to maintaining government approvals and finalizing and entering into engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contracts, among other things, NextDecade said. NextDecade said its advancing commercial discussions with potential counterparties “to finalize commercial arrangements for Train 4 in the coming months to support an FID on Train 4.” On May 20, the company signed an LNG sales and purchase agreement (SPA) with ADNOC for 1.9 mtpa of LNG from Train 4. Additionally, Aramco entered June 13 into a heads of agreement for the sale of 1.2 mtpa of LNG from Train 4, but a finalized binding sale and purchase agreement is in the works. The company also anticipates TotalEnergies will exercise its option to purchase 1.5 mtpa of LNG from Train 4. NextDecade expects to begin the EPC contracting process for Train 5 after a positive FID on Train 4. As of September 2024, construction of Trains 1, 2 and 3 is on schedule, NextDecade reported. For Train 1, foundation pours continued throughout the third-quarter, including work on compressor foundations. Train 2 completed its first concrete pour while equipment relocation for deep soil mixing is in process for Train 3, NextDecade said. Phase 1 development also involves the construction of two LNG storage tanks, each with a capacity of 180,000 cubic meters (cu. m). Plans for the facility's marine infrastructure include two jetty structures designed to accommodate LNG carriers with capacities of up to 216,000 cu. m.
U.S. LNG exports to increase at slowest pace since 2016 - U.S. liquefied natural gas exports this year will increase about 2%, analysts estimate, the smallest annual increase since 2016 when the first big U.S. LNG export plant opened, launching a boom that drove the country's producers to the top of world gas exporters. Slower gains reflect delays and production outages and the absence of a new facility since March 2022 when Venture Global LNG's started up its Calcasieu Pass, Louisiana, project. This year's 2% increase in export volumes, to 12.1 Bft3d, is down from 12% last year and the average growth rate of 43% between 2018 and 2022, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The dollar value of U.S. exports reached a peak of $47.33 B in 2022, when prices skyrocketed after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Prices eased and last year's U.S. exports were valued at $34.27 B, according to U.S. government data. Faster growth should resume next year when new projects start. Gains could rise around 14% to an estimated 13.8 Bft3d in 2025, according to an EIA outlook. U.S. LNG capacity could more than double over the next four years, rising to around 17.8 Bft3d next year, 20.6 Bft3d in 2026, and reach 24.5 Bft3d in 2028, analysts estimate. The seven big LNG export plants are capable of turning around 13.8 Bft3d of natural gas into LNG for export. Since 2023 the U.S. has been the world's largest exporter of the superchilled gas. The 2024 forecast includes some output from two projects scheduled to start operation by year-end: Cheniere Energy's Sabine Pass, Texas expansion, and Venture Global's Plaquemines, Louisiana facility. A contractor's bankruptcy has delayed the third project that was due to open this year, the QatarEnergy and ExxonMobil Golden Pass joint venture. The partners say they expect to deliver first LNG in the second half of next year, but others see the delay stretching into 2026. "That sort of thing is very disruptive and so getting back up to speed when something like that is happening is a challenge," said Jason Feer, Poten and Partners Global head of business intelligence. This year's growth was constrained by maintenance and other outages at the second-largest U.S. export facility, Freeport LNG's 2.1-Bft3d plant in Texas. Its output was cut by more than half for almost four months from mid-January, according to the company and data from financial firm LSEG.
US natgas prices jump 4% on Freeport LNG return, Gulf of Mexico hurricane (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 4% on Monday with another hurricane expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico this week, the return to service of Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas and forecasts for stronger demand than expected. The U.S. National Hurricane Center forecast Tropical Depression 18 would strengthen into a hurricane as it moves northwest from the Caribbean Sea toward Cuba and the Gulf of Mexico, and then to weaken into a tropical storm before possibly hitting the U.S. Gulf Coast near Louisiana over the weekend. Hurricanes can boost gas prices by cutting output, although only about 2% of the nation's gas comes from the federal offshore Gulf of Mexico. But hurricanes can also reduce prices by destroying demand for gas through power outages and knocking liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants out of service. Some storms do some of both. Front-month gas futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose 11.8 cents, or 4.4%, to settle at $2.781 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Open interest in NYMEX futures, meanwhile, rose to a record high for a third day in a row, reaching 1.767 million contracts on Nov. 1. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states held at 101.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, the same as in October. That compared with a record 105.3 bcfd in December 2023. With so many firms still curtailing drilling activities, analysts projected average output in calendar 2024 will decline for the first time since 2020 when the COVID pandemic cut demand for the fuel. Analysts, however,projected producers would boost output later this year and in 2025 to meet rising liquefied natural gas (LNG) export demand with two new export plants - Venture Global LNG's Plaquemines in Louisiana and Cheniere Energy's Corpus Christi stage 3 expansion in Texas - expected to start producing LNG later this year. Meteorologists projected the weather in the Lower 48 states would remain warmer than normal through at least Nov. 19. But even if mid-November is warmer than normal, it will be cooler than early November. With seasonally cooler weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 101.0bcfd this week to 102.6bcfd next week. The forecasts for this week were higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday, while the forecast for next week was lower. The amount of gas flowing to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants fell to an average of 12.0bcfd so far in November from 13.1bcfd in October. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. The feedgas decline so far this month was mostly due to a shutdown at Freeport's 2.1-bcfd plant on Friday due to a power feed interruption at the pretreatement facility, according to a company report to Texas environmental regulators. Gas flows to Freeport were on track to rise to a preliminary 1.8 bcfd on Monday, according to LSEG data, up from 0.3 bcfd on Nov. 1 and near zero on Nov. 2. That compares with an average of 1.9 bcfd during the prior week.
US natural gas prices drop 4% on mild forecasts (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 4% on Tuesday on forecasts for mild weather to continue through late-November, keeping heating demand lower than usual for this time of year and allowing utilities to add more gas into storage for at least a couple more weeks. Analysts projected utilities injected more gas than normal intostorage last week for a thirdweek in a row for the first time since October 2023. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL Prior to last week, injections had been smaller than usual for 14 weeks in a row because many producers so far this year have reduced drilling activities after average spot monthly prices at the U.S. Henry Hubbenchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low in March. Prices have remained relatively low since then. Front-month gas futures NGc1 for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 11.1 cents, or 4.0%, to settle at $2.670 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). That price dropoccurred even though a hurricane threatened to reduce oil and gas output in the Gulf of Mexico later this week. The U.S. National Hurricane Center forecast Tropical Storm Rafael would strengthen into a hurricane on Wednesday as it moves from the Caribbean Sea northwest towardCuba and the Gulf of Mexico before itweakens back into a tropical storm and hitsthe U.S. Gulf Coast around Louisiana over the weekend. Hurricanes can boost gas prices by cutting output, although only about 2% of the nation's gas comes from the federal offshore Gulf of Mexico area. But hurricanes can also reduce prices by destroying demand for gas through power outages and knocking liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants out of service. Some storms do both. In the spot market, pipeline constraints caused next-day gas prices at the Waha hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in the Permian Shale in West Texas to remain in negative territory for a record 44th time this year. Analysts said the constraints were caused in part by reductions on Kinder Morgan's Permian Highway gas pipe in Texas that would likely continue through mid-November. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has slid to 100.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, down from 101.3 bcfd in October. That compared with a record 105.3 bcfd in December 2023. On a daily basis, output over the past three days wason track to drop by about 2.4 bcfd to a preliminary 26-week low of 99.2 bcfd on Tuesday. Part of that daily decline was caused by a force majeure on part of Kinder Morgan'sEl Paso pipeline after a leak on a line near a compressor in New Mexico. Meteorologists projected the weather in the Lower 48 states would remain warmer than normal through at least Nov. 20. LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 100.9 bcfd this week to 101.4 bcfd next week.
US natgas prices climb 3% on output decline, higher demand forecasts (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 3% on Wednesday on a drop in daily output so far this month due to pipeline issues and the evacuation of some oil and gas platforms in the Gulf of Mexico ahead of Hurricane Rafael, and on forecasts for slightly cooler weather and higher heating demand next week than previously expected. Front-month gas futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 7.7 cents, or 2.9%, to settle at $2.747 per million British thermal units. Donald Trump was elected U.S. president, capping a remarkable comeback four years after he was voted out of the White House. "President Trump’s return to the White House will reverberate across the natural gas sector, with predominant impacts on the demand side via lifting the moratorium on new LNG export approvals, and a slower energy transition improving long-term power sector gas demand," analysts at energy consulting firm EBW Analytics said in a note. "The natural gas supply curve could also shift outward, with an eventual more gas-friendly FERC (U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission) likely to speed gas infrastructure with lesser consideration of environmental impacts," EBW added. In its latest forecast, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said Rafael would crash across Cuba later Wednesday as it moves from the Caribbean Sea into the Gulf of Mexico. By Sunday, Rafaelis expected to weaken into a tropical storm in the western Gulf of Mexico. It is no longer certain whether the storm will reach land along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Earlier, the NHC expected Rafael to hit Texas or Louisiana early next week. Hurricanes can boost gas prices by cutting output, although only about 2% of the nation's gas comes from the federal offshore Gulf of Mexico area. But hurricanes can also reduce prices by destroying demand for gas through power outages and knocking liquefied natural gas export plants out of service. Some storms do both. About 7% of U.S. gas production from the Gulf of Mexico was shut in due to Rafael, according to the U.S.Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states slid to 100.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, down from 101.3 bcfd in October. That compared with a record 105.3 bcfd in December 2023. On a daily basis, output over the past four days was on track to drop by around 2.7 bcfd to a preliminary nine-month low of 98.9 bcfd on Wednesday. Analysts noted that preliminary data is often revised later in the day. In addition to curtailments for Rafael in the Gulf of Mexico, the daily output decline was also related to a few force majeures and reductions on Kinder Morgan's El Paso pipe in New Mexico over the past couple of days, and maintenance on Kinder Morgan's Permian Highway pipe in Texas.
What a Trump Presidency Means for Oil and Gas Markets -- Energy markets are trying to digest what a Trump presidency means for oil and gas prices. While the bulk of Trump’s policies are expected to be bearish for prices, the key upside risk is how the future president deals with Iran. “We have more liquid gold than any country in the world,” Trump mentioned in his victory speech, which ties in with previous comments from the president-elect that the US will “drill baby, drill.” And while the incoming administration will hold a more favorable view towards the oil and gas industry, ultimately the potential for production growth is going to be largely dictated by price. There is additional upside to US oil production, but we do not think it will significantly move the needle. According to the quarterly Dallas Fed Energy Survey, oil producers need US$64/bbl to profitably drill a new well, and the Kansas Fed Energy Survey shows a similar number. This compares to 2025 and 2026 forward prices of around $70/bbl and $67/bbl respectively. The potential additional growth in US output is likely to come from federal lands with a reversal of some of President Joe Biden’s policies – although it may take a while until we see the impact of this. Onshore oil production on federal lands made up around 12% of total output in 2023; if you include offshore production, this share grows to around 26%. The Biden administration reduced lease sales on federal land and also increased royalty payments and bond requirements for production on federal land. If we compare the number of new leases issued during Trump’s first three years in office, it totaled more than 4,000. In Biden’s first three years, new lease issuances totaled a little over 1,400. However, lower issuances of leases are having little impact on output so far, with oil production on federal lands growing every year that Biden has been in office. Any upside in oil production would likely also provide an upside to natural gas output through associated production. A Trump presidency may also provide more certainty to the industry and provide comfort to them to invest in pipeline infrastructure, alleviating a persistent bottleneck for the US natural gas market, particularly in the Permian region. Investment in natural gas pipeline capacity also leaves the potential for stronger crude oil output. In addition, under Trump's presidency, we are likely to see a lifting of Biden’s pause on LNG export project approvals. While this does not change the short to medium-term outlook for the global LNG market, it will help remove some of the longer-term uncertainty around LNG supply. Trade uncertainty is another factor that could have a negative impact on energy prices, specifically when it comes to US energy prices. Our house view is that Trump is likely to focus on domestic issues initially, but his attention will turn to trade eventually. This could happen in late 2025/early 2026. The potential for growing trade friction will likely provide headwinds to energy prices, particularly if energy trade gets entangled in any of these tensions. US trade tariffs could see retaliatory action taken against the US on some exports, much like we saw from China during the 2018 trade war. Chinese oil buyers were reluctant to purchase US crude oil due to the risk and the eventual implementation of tariffs. This saw the WTI-Brent discount widen from around US$3/bbl to more than US$11/bbl in 2018. A ratcheting up in the trade war with retaliatory tariffs – or even the risk of tariffs – could see the WTI-Brent spread coming under pressure once again. However, we may not see as much pressure on the spread given that in early 2018, close to a quarter of US crude exports went to China, while this share has fallen to around 7% currently. For natural gas, the risk arises from LNG exports. In 2018, China imposed retaliatory tariffs of 10% on US LNG imports, which were then increased to 25% in June 2019. This saw US LNG exports to China fall to zero and they only started to recover when China issued tariff waivers as part of the trade deal. Since 2018, there have been large shifts in the global gas market, with a tight LNG market and Europe a significantly more important buyer of US LNG – which may provide some comfort to the US, if China were to target US LNG. But timing is important as there is a significant amount of LNG capacity set to start up towards the end of this decade, and this is likely to push the LNG market to a buyer’s market. A Smaller Portion of US Crude Oil Exports End Up in China For energy markets when it comes to foreign policy, how president-elect Trump will handle the Russia/Ukraine war and the Middle East conflict will be most important. Trump has said that he will bring an end to the Russia/Ukraine war, but it is unclear how he will go about doing so. However, managing to broker a peace deal would likely remove a large amount of geopolitical risk hanging over energy markets. It is unclear whether any peace deal would also involve the removal of certain sanctions against Russia. It is difficult to see a scenario where Europe agrees to increase its reliance once again on Russian fossil fuels. It would be in the interest of the US that Europe continues to shun Russian fossil fuels, given the US oil and gas industry has been one of the key beneficiaries of this move. The Middle East is the other geopolitical factor that continues to hang over energy markets. While Trump is supportive of Israel (which was evident during his previous term), he has said that he would look to bring peace to the region. This will be no easy task. It's possible that he aims to achieve this by taking an aggressive stance against Iran, which would also put pressure on Iran’s proxies. Any de-escalation would take a large risk premium out of both the oil and gas market. Iran sanction risk. The biggest potential impact of an incoming Trump presidency could come from his stance against Iran. It was Trump who re-imposed sanctions against Iran in 2018, which saw a significant fall in Iranian oil exports. And while President Biden did not lift these sanctions, they have not been strictly enforced. This has allowed Iran to increase exports significantly during President Biden’s term. The upside risk for the oil market is that Trump once again takes a hawkish view against Iran and strictly enforces these sanctions. This leaves the potential for a loss of more than 1m b/d of supply from the oil market. This would be enough to erase the surplus that we currently expect through 2025 and would require us to revise our current 2025 Brent forecast of US$72/bbl. Trump would likely try to counter any strength in oil prices as a result of this by pressuring OPEC+ to increase output. This was a fairly common occurrence during his previous term.
Covia Energy and Black Mountain Sand Combine to Create Iron Oak Energy Solutions, a Leading North American Proppant Supplier -- Covia Energy LLC ("Covia Energy") and Black Mountain Sand Holdings LLC ("Black Mountain Sand") today jointly announced the closing of a definitive agreement to merge in an all-stock transaction. The combined company, which now operates under the name Iron Oak Energy Solutions LLC ("Iron Oak Energy" or the "Company") is a leading diversified proppant supplier in North America with an active annual production capacity of approximately 30 million tons of sand. The Company's assets include strategically located in-basin sand mines in the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford Shale, as well as premium Northern White Sand facilities with an extensive logistics network. Iron Oak Energy will be headquartered in Houston, Texas and will maintain a corporate presence in Fort Worth, Texas. "This combination creates a leading proppant provider across the most active oil and gas shale basins in North America, and with a debt-free balance sheet, Iron Oak Energy is well positioned to pursue further mergers and acquisitions," said Mr. Segura. "The scale and reach of the combined company are unmatched and allow us to better serve our existing customers' needs across multiple basins and capture new opportunities. Further, our diversified network of production facilities and significant storage position in the Permian Basin provide the scale, reliability, and deliverability of volumes required to meet the increasing proppant demands of longer-lateral, higher intensity completions."
Sempra’s Dual-Coast LNG Plans Progress with Gasoducto Rosarito Pipeline Startup Looming --In Mexico, Sempra Infrastructure’s plans to create a corridor for U.S. natural gas to Asia is nearing a new milestone as it anticipates the start of commercial operations for a major pipeline extension. In August, Sempra Infrastructure disclosed that construction delays would push the launch of commercial operations for phase one of Energía Costa Azul (ECA) into spring 2026. The 3 million tons/year (Mt/y) export project is now expected to produce first LNG volumes by the end of next year. ECA will be fed by U.S. natural gas exported into Mexico through the Gasoducto Rosarito pipeline project, a more than 180-mile pipeline connection bridging the facility to TC Energy Corp.’s North Baja system.
NFE Hunting for Buyers and Partners to Boost Value of Mexican LNG Export, South American Import Infrastructure - As it works to boost efficiency of its Fast LNG export project in Mexico, New Fortress Energy Inc. (NFE) is looking to streamline businesses and slim down debt with equity partnerships or asset sales. Map from Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) showing the Sur-de-Texas-Tuxpan pipeline and associated gas infrastructure in Mexico. The New York-based company has been shifting its focus on a building spree of LNG import terminals in South America and the Caribbean, as well as export assets in North America, to boosting its financial position, management told analysts during a third quarter call Wednesday. President Andrew Dete, formerly managing director, said NFE is working to close the gap between the real-world value of its infrastructure assets and the perception of the current debt and equity levels.
Could Guyana, Suriname Compete With Rising Latin American LNG Exporters? - Latin America could become a major LNG player with two additional countries looking to enter the fold: Guyana and Suriname. Combined, the two nations at the northeastern edge of South America could provide 12 million tons/year (Mt/y) of “cost competitive” LNG in the 2030s, according to new research conducted by Wood Mackenzie. Several gas developments are already underway in both countries.
New gas pipeline in Argentina promises more domestic supply - Argentine officials celebrated the formal kick off of a major natural gas pipeline on Monday, a project that will provide supply from the country's booming shale development to both homes and businesses as well as eventually allowing for exports. The start of operations for the Northern Natural Gas Pipeline, originating in western Neuquen province, will put an end to imports from neighboring Bolivia while moving supply to population centers in northern provinces. Neuquen is home to the massive Vaca Muerta shale formation, Argentina's main hope for additional domestic oil and gas production that could end the need for costly foreign supplies. The newly-inaugurated project cost $710 MM, with $540 MM financed by the World Bank and the Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean. The government in a statement touted the possibility of future natural gas exports to buyers in Bolivia, Chile and Brazil, marking a reversal in longstanding Argentine energy flows. The project involved the reversal in the direction of gas moving on the Northern Natural Gas Pipeline, in addition to the construction of the La Carlota-Tio Pujio pipeline.
Industrial End-Users Look to Escape Natural Gas Price Volatility, ‘Structural Disadvantage’ in Europe --Natural gas price volatility and shifting demand trends are pushing major European chemical manufacturers to revamp their strategies or search for other investments outside the region. Bar chart showing 2024 versus 2023 global natural gas demand expectations. While most of 2024 has been marked by falling Title Transfer Facility prices and slightly reduced LNG imports on the continent, a growing number of large European manufacturers have indicated in 3Q2024 that high energy prices have taken their toll on the sector. Dow Inc. CEO Jim Fitterling said that “while energy costs are higher” the European power market has “moderated a bit” as LNG imports created a “relatively competitive floor” for TTF.
Facing tariff threat, Europe eyes options to appease Trump, including LNG - The European Union is considering options to appease Donald Trump on his return to the White House as it braces for a resumption of U.S. tariffs and other trade threats plus tough exchanges on how to treat China. Trump warned shortly before his U.S. presidential victory that the 27-nation bloc will have to "pay a big price" for not buying enough American exports. Brussels recognizes that threats of 10% tariffs on all U.S. imports and 60% on those from China are credible, not just campaign rhetoric, EU officials say. The European Commission has already begun modeling the impact on the bloc as a whole and on those nations likely to be hardest hit. They could include major car producer Germany and Italy, the second largest EU exporter to the United States. Though cagey in public, some governments expressed anxiety in the lead-up to the election, EU diplomats say. In addition to the direct hit to a sluggish EU economy from tariffs on its products, the EU could face a second blow as Chinese producers, effectively facing greater barriers to the U.S., may steer more exports to Europe. In response to Trump's 2018 tariffs on EU steel, the EU put in place safeguard measures to limit imports of steel tariff-free to its markets. But these measures are due to expire in June 2026, with no extension possible under EU or WTO rules. The EU will seek to contact the future Trump administration before his inauguration and is already mulling future areas of cooperation that could ease or even remove the tariff threat. One possible field is liquefied natural gas (LNG), which the EU could import more of from the U.S. to ease the trade deficit that preoccupies Trump. In 2018, Trump and then EU Executive Chief Jean-Claude Juncker agreed a deal that included an EU wish to import more U.S. LNG. It helped ward off fresh tariffs on EU goods beyond steel and aluminum. Brussels hopes Trump will prove a president it can do business with again. Investments in the EU to diversify energy supply, particularly after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, could lead to increased LNG flows from the U.S., EU officials believe. Some EU diplomats suggest China, on which U.S. policy is likely to toughen, could be another area of cooperation, although the EU wish to stick to global trade rules and "de-risk" but not de-couple from China will make discussions tough. A Trump presidency has other major implications for Europe, which faces the long-term challenge of how to finance welfare spending for an aging population during modest economic growth. If Trump reduces support for the NATO military alliance and the Ukraine war, Europe's governments would have to fund increased defense spending from budgets already stretched by national debt levels close to 90% of output. Trump's proposals, if enacted, will weigh on European growth and likely lower inflation, especially if manufacturers, already suffering through a lengthy industrial recession, start to curb workforces. Increased imports from China could also weaken prices, while more U.S. oil drilling and coal production could add to deflationary pressures. Trump's inflationary tariffs and higher budget deficit will likely strengthen the U.S. dollar, so the U.S. may export some of its own inflation, but that will not be enough to offset the other factors that weigh on prices. This could force the European Central Bank to cut interest rates below 2% next year, where it will once again stimulate growth after several years of restrictive policies.
Opinion: Trump-led oil and gas export boom may go bust in Europe trade spat -- Oil and gas producers in the U.S. expect to find it easier to ramp up production and exploration under the incoming second administration of Donald Trump. Finding local and lucrative markets for their wares may be the bigger challenge. Producers expect the new administration to streamline permit processes relating to fossil fuel extraction and distribution that should result in a climb in U.S. oil and natural gas output, which is already at record highs. That bodes well for firms that export liquefied natural gas (LNG), crude oil and refined fuels and will likely encourage further growth in U.S. export capacity of those products. However, energy exporters also run the risk of getting caught in trade-related crossfire should Trump's plan to impose steep tariffs on a slew of imported goods trigger retaliatory responses in consumer markets. European nations are particularly likely to be targeted with tariffs by the incoming administration as the long-standing U.S. trade deficit with Europe - around $240 B annually - is a major irritant for Trump allies. President-elect Trump said last month that Europe would "pay a big price" for not buying enough American exports and has threatened to impose blanket tariffs on European goods. However, Europe is also the single largest market for both U.S. LNG and crude oil exports, accounting for 49% of all U.S. LNG shipments and 47% of U.S. crude exports this year, according to ship-tracking data from Kpler. Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Europe has had to import record volumes of fuels and oil from other suppliers, and the U.S. has been the main beneficiary by shipping out record volumes of those commodities. In 2023, U.S. LNG export revenue was > $30 B and two-thirds of all U.S. LNG shipments went to Europe, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and Kpler. The U.S. exported around $10 B of crude oil in 2023, with just under half sent to Europe, EIA data showed. Those U.S. LNG and oil shipments have resulted in a profit boom for U.S. exporters and valuable tax revenue for the U.S. Treasury which the next administration will want to protect. However, the high price tag of energy imports has also hurt European consumers and is accelerating Europe's energy transition away from fossil fuels. A slowdown in economic activity has also curbed industrial gas use and power consumption and has triggered a more than 20% drop in Europe's LNG imports over the first 10 months of 2024 from the same period of 2023. Europe's imports of U.S. crude oil have climbed to a record so far in 2024 but the continent's overall crude imports have contracted by around 1%, showed data from Kpler. This indicates that European energy product importers have scope to reduce purchases of U.S. LNG and crude as overall gas use remains stunted while crude supplies from alternative sellers are abundant. European policymakers are already planning responses to Trump's intended tariff impositions, wary of a potential deterioration in economic ties with a key trade partner while embroiled in a trade spat with China. Trade experts in Brussels - home to the European Union's policy arm - will want to avert any further souring in the region's economy and will likely seek to maintain strong ties with the U.S. during Trump's next term. However, they will not shy away from proposing tariff measures of their own during negotiations, if only to avert being steam-rolled by blanket tariff threats from the U.S. U.S. energy products are likely to be an attractive option for retaliatory tariffs as Europe can readily source LNG and oil from other keen sellers and thereby hurt U.S. suppliers without harming their own consumers. On paper, U.S. energy product exporters could redirect cargoes to other buyers if Europe somehow becomes shut off during a trade scuffle. But in reality, the loss of European buyers would be a heavy blow to U.S. firms, especially LNG exporters. All current U.S. LNG export terminals are located on either the East Coast or in the U.S. Gulf and so are better situated to service a Pan-Atlantic trade route than across the Pacific to buyers in Asia. The U.S. to Europe journey is also only a fraction of the distance and time to major buyers in Asia. The roughly 12-day trip from Cove Point LNG terminal in Maryland to Wilhelmshaven in Germany - a major European LNG import hub - is a third of the time of the trip to Guangdong in China, the world's largest LNG buyer. Longer journeys mean longer turnaround times for LNG sellers, who need speedy vessel turnover to maximize revenue. So while U.S. sellers could feasibly maintain total export volumes by redirecting cargoes if Europe became off limits, they would most likely incur sharply higher shipping costs and longer return times if they had to go to Asia instead.
Europe can replace gas coming via Ukraine using LNG terminals, Snam CEO says Europe can use several liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals to replace Russian gas flowing through Ukraine when a transit deal expires at the end of December, the CEO of Europe's biggest gas grid operator Snam said on Thursday. Russia shipped about 15 Bm3 of gas via Ukraine in 2023 - only about 8% of peak Russian gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018–2019 - supplying mainly Hungary, Slovakia and Austria. Ukraine has refused to renew the transit deal with Russia due to the ongoing military invasion. With the deal coming to an end this year, some concerns have arisen over energy security risks for these countries. "Europe has plenty of LNG facilities to offset this 15 Bm3 of Russian gas," Snam's Stefano Venier said, speaking at a post-result conference call. Venier mentioned an LNG terminal that started operations in Greece's northeastern port of Alexandroupolis in October, and a floating terminal that Snam will place offshore the Italian city of Ravenna early next year. The group has also finished works to boost its gas export capacity towards Austria to 9 Bm3 from a previous 6 Bm3. Snam on Thursday reported a 12% rise in nine-month core earnings to €2.09 B. Speaking after the results, Snam's Chief Financial Officer Luca Passa confirmed the group was in negotiations with Eni over the energy group's carbon capture and storage (CCS) division. "We are doing due diligence on the new Eni CCS unit spinoff to become a partner and eventually round up our stake... this would allow us to diversify our presence in this area of business," Passa said. Snam has completed the funding for this year and could start to do pre-funding activities for 2025 with future moves depending on the reaction of the financial markets to the U.S. elections, Passa said.
LNG Freight Rates Forecast to Stay Lower for Longer -- A lack of arbitrage opportunities, high storage inventories in Europe and Asia, an oversupply of vessels and export project delays have all combined to drag global LNG freight rates to the lowest levels in the last five years at this time of year. Natural Gas Intelligence's (NGI) West of Suez LNG vessel rate curve. The cost to hire an LNG vessel has dropped below $50,000/day. Spark Commodities assessed LNG freight rates at $19,750/day in the Atlantic on Tuesday, while they stood at $29,000/day in the Pacific, “bucking seasonal trends expected in the freight market as we head into winter,” Spark Commodities analyst Qasim Afghan told NGI. It is also the first time in the last five years that fourth quarter prices have dropped below $50,000/day in either the Atlantic or Pacific basins, according to Spark Commodities data.
Chevron CEO Says ‘Healthy’ Global LNG Inventory Unlikely to Tighten Up in 2025 - Global LNG demand may be growing, but Chevron Corp. CEO Mike Wirth said ample natural gas supply is stacking the cards against the market tightening in 2025. (chart: global natural gas demand outlook by region) Speaking with investors during the third quarter conference call, Wirth on Friday said all signals point to rising LNG consumption. “But it comes against a backdrop of very healthy inventories,” he said. The European inventory is “strong for this time of year. Inventories in the U.S. are very healthy for this time of the year. You see that reflected in Henry Hub prices. And so overall, we've got a market that currently has healthy inventories…”
Gazprom subsidiary files $880-MM claim against Linde - A subsidiary of Russia's gas major Gazprom has filed a claim for 85.7 B roubles ($879 MM) against global industrial gases and engineering company Linde and its subsidiaries, court documents showed on Wednesday. The Gazprom subsidiary, in charge of the Amur Gas Processing Plant, filed the claim on Oct. 29 in the Arbitration Court of the Amur Region, in Russia's east. Linde left Russia and the plant, which facilitates Russian gas exports to China via the Power of Siberia pipeline, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The plant's first technological line started operation in June 2021. The plant is expected to reach full annual capacity of 42 Bm3 of natural gas processing next year. Linde, the world's largest industrial gases company, said in 2022 it was suspending all business development activities in Russia, ceasing supply to certain customers, and divesting industrial assets to reduce its footprint in the country. Gazprom and Linde did not immediately reply to emailed requests for comment. There have been a number of claims against Linde in Russia following its departure from the country. In one of the cases, a Russian court ordered that assets worth around $1.15 B of a British subsidiary of Linde be frozen in a dispute over a gas processing plant in August.
Exxon targets first LNG from $30-B Mozambique Project by 2030 --ExxonMobil is expecting the first liquefied natural gas (LNG) output from its project in Mozambique in 2030, a company executive said on Thursday.Exxon, along with partners including Eni and China's CNPC are developing an LNG project in northern Mozambique, with the U.S. energy giant leading the construction and operation of the onshore liquefaction and related facilities."We will most likely next year start some early works in (the) Afungi (site) to get things going, keep it on track and allowing us to get first LNG (production) in 2030," Frank Kretschmer, general manager at the company's Mozambique unit, told delegates at an energy conference in Cape Town.The company said on Wednesday that it now expected a final investment decision for its Rovuma LNG project in Mozambique in early 2026. The cost of the project is estimated at about $30 B.
Adnoc Signs First Long-Term SPA for Ruwais LNG as Project Advances to 2028 Startup --Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (Adnoc) has signed its first long-term agreement to supply LNG from its Ruwais export project, which was sanctioned earlier this year. The company said it would supply an affiliate of Germany’s Securing Energy for Europe GmbH (Sefe) with 1 million tons/year (Mt/y) of the super-chilled fuel for 15 years. Deliveries are expected to start in 2028 when the terminal is scheduled to enter service. “This partnership with Adnoc supports our efforts to responsibly diversify our energy sources, enhance security of energy supply for Germany and Europe and to support our customers on their decarbonization journey,” said Sefe CEO Egbert Laege. “Furthermore, it is an important step for Sefe’s ambition to drive the energy transition and become a European energy major in the low-carbon economy.”
QatarEnergy Inaugurates Four LNG Carriers - QatarEnergy said Thursday it had held naming ceremonies to inaugurate four of the dozens of conventional-size liquefied natural gas (LNG) vessels it had ordered from South Korean builders. Three of the newly inaugurated ships, named “Lebrethah”, “Nuaijah” and “Umm Swayyah”, mark the first deliveries by Hanwha Ocean Co. Ltd. under QatarEnergy’s LNG fleet expansion program, state-owned QatarEnergy said in a statement. “This is a historic moment as these three LNG vessels prepare to set sail on their missions across the globe, providing a cleaner and more economic source of energy, and are equipped with state-of-the-art technologies to achieve optimal fuel efficiency and reduce emissions”, Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, president and chief executive of QatarEnergy and energy minister of Qatar, told one of the two separate ceremonies in Geoje, according to the online statement. The other ship, named “Id’asah”, will also be the first delivery by Samsung Heavy Industries Co. Ltd. under the program, QatarEnergy said. Both the Hanwha Ocean Shipyard and the Samsung Heavy Industries Shipyard are in the city of Geoje on the country’s southern coast. South Korean government representatives attended the ceremonies, QatarEnergy said. It gave no date when the ships would be deployed. Two months ago QatarEnergy inaugurated two of the 12 conventional-size LNG tankers it ordered from China State Shipbuilding Corp. CSSC. The two, one named after former Exxon Mobil Corp. chief executive Rex Tillerson, will be deployed by QatarEnergy Trading under long-term charters, QatarEnergy said in a press release September 10. On September 9 it announced it had contracted the Chinese state-owned shipbuilder for six more LNG ships, bringing the number of LNG vessels ordered by QatarEnergy under its fleet expansion program to 128. The new orders consist of QC-Max tankers, each with a capacity of 271,000 cubic meters (9.6 million cubic feet). The new orders, which QatarEnergy said are the biggest LNG carriers and will incorporate sustainable innovation, are scheduled for delivery between 2028 and 2031. The new orders increased the number of QC-Max ships in its fleet expansion program to 24, with all build contracts awarded to CSSC for a total contract value of about $8 billion. CSSC is building the carriers at the Hudong-Zhonghua Shipyard. Of the 18 earlier ordered, eight are set to be delivered between 2028 and 2029, the rest between 2030 and 2031, according to a QatarEnergy statement April 29.
Booming Iranian Oil Trade in the Spotlight after Trump Win | Rigzone --Donald Trump’s impending return to the White House has brought Iran’s booming oil flows back into focus — as well as the possibility that the president-elect will once again try to crush them. Back in 2019, Trump led the US in a so-called maximum pressure campaign designed to choke off the Islamic Republic’s exports and, with it, Tehran’s access to petrodollars. Under Joe Biden’s leadership, however, flows have boomed again with an emphasis on policies that cause friction to Iran’s shipments but don’t curtail them. Trump’s return to the Oval Office from January — along with rhetoric during his campaign that he would be tough on Iran — raises the question of whether he’ll target those flows again. To circumvent the US measures, Iran has increasingly relied on a fleet of tankers and trading practices that are outside of the West’s oversight. “I think this will have a material impact on Iranian oil exports,” Ben Cahill, energy markets and policy director at the University of Texas, said of Trump’s return. “It’s hard to put the genie back in the bottle entirely after the black market has developed for years and sanctions evasion and obfuscation has advanced. But I suspect Trump will lean on China.” Cahill estimates that Iran’s flows could be curtailed by between 750,000 barrels a day and 1 million barrels a day. If that were to prove accurate, it would take them back down to around the 1 million-a-day mark last seen during the early stages of Covid. Iran’s oil exports averaged 1.7 million barrels a day in the third quarter of this year, almost two-and-a-half times as high as they were in second half of 2019, according to data from TankerTrackers.com Inc., which has been monitoring the nation’s secretive shipments using satellite data for years. With widespread expectations that oil and diesel markets will be in surplus next year, the incoming president could also have room for maneuver. Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, says Trump will target ports that take Iran’s oil, and make the Middle East country a priority in his talks with top buyer China. A hard line sanctions policy has the potential to disrupt as much as 1.3 million barrels a day of Iranian crude flows, Rapidan estimates. A shift in global dynamics since Trump’s last term may also require the next president to recalibrate his approach to relations with Saudi Arabia, said McNally. The de facto leader of OPEC struck an agreement in 2023 to normalize relations with Tehran for the first time in seven years, and ties have become less tense in recent years. “Iran policy is the most important consequence of the election,” McNally said Wednesday in Abu Dhabi. “The vote between Harris and Trump was literally up or down on Iranian supply. Trump is going to crack down on Iran from day one as one of his biggest priorities.”
China Oil Imports Sink Again - Oil imports into China sank again last month, highlighting soft consumption in the largest buyer just as traders weighed the implications of Donald Trump capturing the White House and potential supply rises from OPEC+. Imports contracted to 44.7 million tons in October, according to customs data on Thursday. That’s about 2 percent lower than September, and almost 9 percent below the same period last year, according to Bloomberg calculations. Year-to-date shipments are now running more than 3 percent behind last year’s pace. Crude prices are lower year-to-date despite tensions in the Middle East, with US output running at a record rate, and OPEC+ planning to ease supply curbs. China’s consumption has been a weak spot for the market, and last month’s decline in inflows came as local refiners cut throughput amid weaker margins. Trump’s victory has prompted speculation it’s negative for prices. State-owned refineries in the Asian nation cut their run rates at the end of October to the lowest since December, according to data from Mysteel OilChem. More than half of 60 state-owned plants surveyed by the industry consultant were seen to have curtailed operations in the period. The roots of the slowdown in oil imports lie in the wider economy’s sluggish performance, with policymakers grappling with a drawn-out property crisis despite several round of stimulus. In addition, more of the nation’s trucking fleet has been switching away from diesel to liquefied natural gas.
Taiwan races to remove oil from grounded Chinese ship -- Taiwan on Friday raced to remove 284 tonnes of oil from a Chinese carrier that ran aground off the island after losing power in rough seas as Typhoon Kong-rey neared. The Chinese-flagged Yu Zhou Qi Hang was transporting three cranes from Keelung, in northeast Taiwan, to China on Tuesday when it stalled in wild weather, Taiwanese authorities said. A Taiwan coast guard vessel was deployed to rescue the 17 crew and the Chinese ship drifted to the shore of Yehliu Geopark, northeast of Taipei, where it ran aground. Sponsored The Yu Zhou Qi Hang was carrying 247 tonnes of heavy fuel oil and 37 tonnes of light diesel oil, the coast guard said. An AFP photographer on Friday saw red cranes above the water, one leaning heavily and touching the rocky shore, while the Yu Zhou Qi Hang was submerged. Tracking website vesselfinder.com said the ship was a 143-metre long heavy load carrier built in 2012. Authorities hoped to start recovering the oil on Friday afternoon, an official in the Maritime and Port Bureau told AFP. The Ocean Affairs Council estimated it would take two to three days to finish, with its minister, Kuan Bi-ling, saying no oil had been detected leaking from the ship.
Global Oil Demand to Hit 120.1mn Barrels per Day by 2050-OPEC - Kenyan Wall Street - The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) projects that global oil demand will reach 120.1 million barrels per day by 2050 from about 103mn barrels per day today, concurrent with a 24% rise in energy demand. Refinery runs are set to start slowing down in Canada, Europe, the US, and parts of Asia-Pacific from 2030 onwards, slowing down growth as transition policies take effect. But regions seeking a just transition energy policy are expected to fill the gap, with almost 90% of new refining capacity set to be located in Africa, the Middle East, and the Asia-Pacific. Most of Africa’s oil exports are expected to end up in Europe and Asia Pacific for the next 35 years, although the proportions for exports to the former will progressively slow towards 2050. “Demand will be fueled by a world economy that is expected to more than double in size to more than $360 trillion by 2050. Driving this economic growth is the rapidly expanding world population, expected to reach 9.7 billion from the current 8 billion,” Haitham Al Ghais, OPEC Secretary General, said in a keynote speech at the African Energy Week. While exports to the US & Canada are projected to increase in the next five years, OPEC estimates that they will slow down and ultimately plateau as exports from the Middle East dominate until 1940, and then Latin America’s exports grow in the decade after.
Oil Futures Advance as OPEC-Plus Postpones Large Output Hike -- Oil futures closest to expiration rallied Monday morning, following an announcement by OPEC+ to again push back a planned output hike.OPEC+ producers who shouldered an additional 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in production cuts postponed their plans to return production once more. Initially planned to end in October, the group on Sunday decided to extend these voluntary cuts into December. Weak demand among main OPEC crude oil consumers, particularly in East Asia, has been weighing on oil prices since the spring and dimmed global demand growth outlooks.OPEC had banked on Chinese oil demand growth this year, which all but failed to materialize in any meaningful way. Official government data show less crude oil processing and lower imports than last year as the country's industrial sector experienced little growth, domestic consumption stayed behind expectations and regional demand for refined products softened. China's official manufacturing PMI in October broke the 50-mark for the first time since April, at 50.1, finding itself barely in expansion territory. The Caixin manufacturing PMI in October at 50.3 also suggested slight growth, up from 49.3 in September. Caixin's index, which in the first half of the year pointed to solid growth, has been hovering around the 50-mark for the past four months. The Chinese government has until recently been reluctant to embrace meaningful stimulus measures, so far mostly opting for small cuts to interest rates. The Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, however, which is meeting all week, is now expected to draft new and additional stimulus measures.Barring a Middle Eastern war disrupting oil production and exports, the return of Libyan production and ever-growing non-OPEC oil output may leave the producer group in no better spot to hike output next month -- with or without Chinese stimulus. Near 8:15 a.m. EST, WTI for December delivery was trading near $71.43 barrel (bbl), up $1.94, and Brent for January delivery was up $1.88 near $74.98 bbl. December RBOB rose $0.0564 gal to $2.0229, and December ULSD gained $0.0478 gal to $2.2820.
Oil Rallies on OPEC+ Decision and US Election Jitters | Rigzone -Oil climbed after OPEC+ agreed to push back its December production increase and Iran outlined a possible response to Israel’s recent bombardment. Traders also braced for jumpy trading ahead of the US election. West Texas Intermediate rose 2.8% to settle near $71.50 a barrel, the biggest gain since early October, while Brent advanced 2.7% to settle above $75. Saudi Arabia and its allies delayed a series of monthly output hikes until early next year, a move anticipated by many traders amid an impending glut. Looking ahead, Macquarie analysts said the delay “casts doubt” on 2025 supply hikes, quelling speculation of a potential price war. If prices don’t get a boost from surprisingly strong China demand or weaker-than-expected non-OPEC production, “we can look forward to OPEC continuing to push back unwinding, in dribs and drabs,” said Stewart Glickman, an analyst at CFRA Research. Meanwhile, Iran escalated its rhetoric, with supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warning Saturday of a “crushing response” to Israel’s recent strike. The Wall Street Journal reported that Tehran told allies an attack would come after Tuesday’s US presidential vote, but before January’s inauguration, and it wouldn’t be limited to missiles and drones as two previous strikes were. Israel has kept up its campaign against Iranian proxies, striking Hezbollah intelligence sites in Damascus. The US election tomorrow is also contributing to heightened market volatility. The dollar weakened — offering another support to crude prices — after new polling suggested traders were underestimating the prospect of a win for Democrat Kamala Harris, leading investors to unwind their so-called “Trump Trade” bets. “The challenge for oil markets is that they’re getting caught up in the election uncertainty,” said Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist at US Bank. The event “isn’t necessarily driving prices, but it is driving investor sentiment.” With the OPEC+ decision helping to crystallize near-term supply outlook, traders will be honing in on a looming Fed rate decision and stockpile data this week to get a better sense of US demand, Haworth said. In the Americas, Tropical Storm Rafael threatens to menace offshore oil and natural gas production areas in the western Gulf of Mexico, and Shell said it would evacuate some non-essential personnel in the area. Oil prices have become increasingly volatile, with concerns of an oversupply next year and lackluster demand in top importer China vying against unrest in the Middle East, which supplies about a third of the world’s crude. The oil market has a number of other key events on the horizon this week, such as a meeting of China’s top legislative body. Saudi Aramco is scheduled to release its official prices for December, with the producer expected to lower its rates for Asia, according to a Bloomberg survey. WTI for December delivery climbed 2.8% to settle at $71.47 a barrel in New York. Brent for January settlement rose 2.7% to settle at $75.08 a barrel.
Oil jumps nearly 3% after OPEC+ delays output hike, US election in focus (Reuters) - Oil prices climbed nearly 3% on Monday on OPEC+'s decision for a month's delay in plans to increase output, while investors also focused on the U.S. presidential election.Brent futures were up $1.98, or 2.7%, at $75.08 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.98, or 2.85%, to $71.47. Last week, Brent declined about 4%, while WTI fell around 3%.On Sunday, OPEC+ said it would extend its output cut of 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) for another month in December, with an increase already delayed from October because of falling prices and weak demand.OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and other allies, had been due to increase monthly output by 180,000 bpd from December.The extension through the entire fourth quarter of 2024 "casts doubt on the group's commitment (or wherewithal) to return supply at all" in 2025, said Walt Chancellor, an energy strategist at Macquarie, adding that the announcement may allay some fears of a renewed OPEC+ "price war."OPEC remains very positive on demand for oil in both the short and long term, Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said on Monday.French oil major TotalEnergies forecast global oil demand will peak after 2030 in its two most likely energy transition scenarios in its annual energy outlook report.Meanwhile, the CEO of Italian energy company Eni said that OPEC+ oil supply cuts and recent efforts to unwind them had increased volatility in energy markets and hampered investment in new production. OPEC oil output rebounded in October as Libya resolved a political crisis, a Reuters survey found. In the previous month output was at its lowest this year. A further Iraqi effort to meet its cuts pledged to the wider OPEC+ alliance limited the gain.Iran has approved a plan to increase oil production by 250,000 barrels per day, the oil ministry's news website Shana reported on Monday. Libya's oil production is nearing 1.5 million bpd, the country's National Oil Corporation (NOC) said.U.S. Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump remain virtually tied in opinion polls ahead of Tuesday's Election Day, and the winner might not be known for days after voting ends.Investors also watched for any escalation in Middle East tensions.On Thursday, U.S. news website Axios said Israeli intelligence suggested Iran was preparing to attack Israel from Iraq within days, citing two unidentified Israeli sources. "Middle East tensions are once again on the forefront as traders await the Iranian response attack," Analysts expect draws this week in gasoline and distillate inventories, while crude stocks are estimated to rise. U.S. gasoline stocks fell to their lowest in two years in the week to Oct 25. Markets were also watching a new tropical storm that was forecast to form on Monday in the Caribbean and threaten offshore oil production along the Gulf of Mexico. Shell said it was moving non-essential personnel from six platforms, adding it currently expects no other impacts on its production across the Gulf of Mexico. Investor focus this week will be on the U.S. Federal Reserve as economists expect interest rates to be cut by 25 basis points on Thursday, and on China, where the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress meets and is expected to approve additional stimulus to boost the slowing economy.
Oil prices decline before US election, attempts to negotiate ceasefire in Gaza =On Tuesday, oil prices experienced a slight decline, reflecting ongoing uncertainty in the market as the US presidential election looms and reports indicate continued attempts to negotiate a cease-fire in Gaza. The international oil benchmark, brent crude, fell by 0.2 percent, settling at USD75.04 per barrel around 10:52 am local time (0752 GMT), compared to the previous session's closing price of USD75.19. Similarly, the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also saw a 0.2 percent drop, trading at USD71.25 per barrel, down from USD71.42 at the last close.As millions of Americans prepared to cast their votes for the presidency, Congress, state governors, and local officials, analysts noted that investor sentiment was cautious, with many avoiding high-risk positions ahead of the election. The uncertainty surrounding the electoral outcome has led market participants to be particularly attentive to potential shifts in US economic policy, which could have significant implications for oil demand. In addition to the electoral concerns, the market is also bracing for an important announcement from the US Federal Reserve regarding interest rates, set to be revealed on Thursday. This decision is anticipated to provide insight into the Fed's perspective on economic growth, further influencing market dynamics. Investors are particularly aware that the economic landscape will likely evolve based on the election results, impacting the outlook for oil consumption in the United States, the world's largest consumer of oil.Overall, the interplay between the upcoming election, geopolitical tensions, and monetary policy decisions continues to shape the oil market, leading to fluctuations in prices as traders assess the potential outcomes and their implications for future demand.
The Oil Market Traded Higher Ahead of the U.S. Presidential Election - The oil market continued to trade higher on Tuesday on a weaker U.S. dollar ahead of what was expected to be a close U.S. presidential election. The market continued to trend higher in follow through strength seen on Monday following the OPEC+ decision to delay plans to increase output in December. It was further supported by a weak U.S. dollar, which fell to a three-week low as traders squared their positions ahead of the U.S. presidential election results. The market was also supported by forecasts of Tropical Storm Rafael strengthening into the next hurricane of the season and moving into the Gulf of Mexico. Energy companies have started to evacuate non-essential workers from their Gulf operations. The crude market posted the day’s trading range by mid-day as it posted a low of $71.29 in overnight trading before it rallied to a high of $72.67. It retraced more than 50% of its move from a high of $77.70 to a low of $66.72. The market later gave up some of its gains and traded in a sideways trading range ahead of the close. The December WTI contract settled up 52 cents at $71.99 and the January Brent contract settled up 45 cents at $75.53. The product markets ended the session in positive territory, with the heating oil market settling up 2.01 cents at $2.3042 and the RB market settling up 2.54 cents at $2.0446. Major energy companies said they are evacuating some oil production workers and securing offshore platforms as they prepare for the approach of Tropical Storm Rafael to the Gulf of Mexico. BP said it has secured offshore facilities and removed some non-essential personnel from its Argos, Atlantis, Mad Dog, Na Kika and Thunder Horse facilities. Chevron, which operates six platforms in the Gulf, including Anchor, Blind Faith, Jack/St. Malo, Tahiti, Petronius and Big Foot, said it moved non-essential personnel, though production remains unaffected. Equinor said it has shut down production, with full evacuations expected by the day’s end. Shell said it began relocating personnel from its Appomattox, Vito and other assets in anticipation of the storm’s potential impact. The port of Freeport in south Texas closed to inbound vessel traffic due to offshore conditions ahead of tropical storm Rafael.Investors increased their oil futures and options trading in October to record levels in a bid to hedge increasing uncertainty as war continues in the Middle East and a bearish 2025 supply and demand outlook looms, triggering big swings in crude prices. According to data from the Intercontinental Exchange, about 68.44 million barrels of oil in futures and options were traded in October, surpassing the monthly record hit in March 2020 when Brent futures fell about $30/barrel as the COVID-19 pandemic cut global oil demand. Investors traded more than 8.38 million barrels in Brent options in October on the ICE, surpassing the April 2024 record of 6.02 million barrels. Meanwhile, the CME Group reported a single day volume record for weekly crude oil options on October 18th, with 58,132 contracts traded.Trade sources said trading firms will deliver about 5 million barrels of Middle East crude oil to the Shanghai International Energy Exchange this month, an unusually large volume, after domestic prices increased against global benchmark Brent. The volume of oil to be delivered into the November contract was likely the biggest for the year, as trade was mostly muted through 2024.
Oil prices edge up on Gulf of Mexico storm ahead of US election results (Reuters) - Oil prices edged up about 1% on Tuesday with a storm expected to cut U.S. output in the Gulf of Mexico and as the U.S. dollar weakened on Election Day with polls showing America's presidential race exceptionally close.Brent crude oil futures rose 45 cents, or 0.6%, to settle at $75.53 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 52 cents, or 0.7%, to settle at $71.99."Crude oil is bid (up) on bullish supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and election fever, with a little weather thrown in for good measure," The U.S. presidential contest between Republican former President Donald Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris hurtled toward an uncertain finish as Americans headed to the polls."The (election) result might not be known for days, if not weeks, and it will most plausibly be challenged and contested," said Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM, a brokerage and consulting firm that is part of TP ICAP.The U.S. dollar slid to a three-week low versus a basket of other currencies as traders squared positions ahead of election results.A weaker greenback makes oil less expensive in other countries.The U.S. services sector accelerated to a more than two-year high in October as employment rebounded strongly, suggesting last month's near stall in job growth was an aberration. The U.S. trade deficit surged to nearly a 2-1/2-year high in September. Elsewhere in the U.S., energy firms in the Gulf of Mexico started evacuating workers from offshore platforms ahead of Tropical Storm Rafael, on track to strengthen into a hurricane this week. Analysts say the storm could reduce oil production by about 4 million barrels. On Sunday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies in OPEC+ said they would push back a production hike by a month from December as weak demand and rising non-OPEC supply depress markets. Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia lowered the price for the flagship Arab light crude it sells to Asia in December.Still, risk-taking remains limited with a busy week - including the U.S. election, the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy meeting and a meeting of China's National People's Congress keeping many traders on the sidelines, said Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG International, a financial firm."Eyes are also on China's NPC meeting for any clarity on fiscal stimulus to uplift the country's demand outlook, but we are unlikely to see any strong commitment before the U.S. presidential results, and that will continue to keep oil prices in a near-term waiting game," Yeap said.The chairman and co-founder of Gunvor, one of the world's largest oil traders, said there is little growth in oil demand and the industry is probably over-investing somewhat.
Crude oil prices plummet 2.5% on strong US dollar; Brent slips below $74 -Crude oil prices slid 2.5% on Wednesday, November 6, snapping a five-day winning streak, weighed down by a stronger US dollar as early reports suggested that Republican candidate Donald Trump is edging closer to securing a second term in the White House. The stronger dollar exerts pressure on oil and other commodities, making them more expensive for buyers using other currencies. Brent crude oil futures fell to $73.64 per barrel, marking a 2.5% drop from the previous close of $75.53. Similarly, WTI crude futures declined to around $70.22, down 2.45% from the prior close of $71.99. Crude prices have experienced notable fluctuations in recent sessions, influenced by OPEC+'s decision to delay December production plans for the second time, escalating tensions in the Middle East, the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting decision, and signs of economic improvement in China, the world’s largest crude importer. Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities, Mehta Equities, said, "Crude oil prices experienced significant volatility last week, rebounding from earlier lows due to a decline in U.S. oil stocks and heightened geopolitical tensions. U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 0.5 million barrels, contrary to expectations of a 1.5-million-barrel increase, and well below the previous week’s stock level of 5.5 million barrels.""The recovery in crude prices was further supported by geopolitical unrest in the Middle East and the potential postponement of production increases by OPEC+ nations. However, gains were tempered by the strength of the US dollar and weak economic data from Europe," he added.Looking ahead, Rahul Kalantri anticipates crude oil prices to remain volatile this week, influenced by fluctuations in the dollar index and ongoing geopolitical tensions. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, surged by 1.9% to 105.30, reaching its highest level in nearly four months amid rising odds of a Trump victory in the US presidential election.In the past few sessions, the Dollar Index was under pressure after polls showed rising support for the Democratic presidential nominee and Vice President Kamala Harris in key swing states, prompting investors to unwind some of their positions betting on Trump’s victory.However, the actual trends showed that Trump is gaining ground over Harris in several critical swing states, leading to a sharp rebound in the dollar index. According to the Associated Press, Donald Trump won key Pennsylvania, putting him just three electoral votes shy of defeating Kamala Harris to win the White House. Trump has 267 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House. A win in Alaska or any of the outstanding battleground states — Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, or Nevada—would send the Republican former president back to the Oval Office, the report said. Pennsylvania, a part of the once-reliable Democratic stronghold known as the “blue wall” with Michigan and Wisconsin, was carried by Trump when he first won the White House in 2016 and then flipped back to Democrats in 2020. Trump also flipped Georgia, which had voted for Democrats four years ago, and retained the closely contested state of North Carolina, the report added.Analysts generally assume Trump's plans for restricted immigration, tax cuts, and sweeping tariffs, if enacted, would put more upward pressure on inflation and bond yields than Harris' center-left policies. Trump's proposals are also likely to push up the dollar and potentially limit how far U.S. interest rates might ultimately be lowered.
WTI Holds Rebound Gains After Across-The-Board Inventory Builds -Oil prices are bouncing back from weakness overnight (strong dollar and Trump 'drill, baby, drill' win).“Overnight trading saw widespread losses across the commodities sector,” Markets believe a Trump presidency “is expected to bring about the promised tariffs on imported goods, particularly targeting China, potentially triggering a new wave of trade tensions and economic disruptions.”The dollar has been lifted on expectations Trump's fiscal plans and tariff proposals would stoke inflationary pressures, curtailing the scope for Fed rate cuts.The strengthening dollar "leaves oil market participants grappling with election-related uncertainties that can only be answered in the coming months," Mukesh Sahdev, global head of commodities at Rystad Energy, said in a note.But for now, let's focus on the immediate fundamentals. API
- Crude +3.13mm (0.00mm exp)
- Cushing +1.72mm
- Gasoline -928k (-900k exp)
- Distillates -852k (-300k exp)
DOE
- Crude +2.15mm (0.00mm exp)
- Cushing +552k
- Gasoline +412k (-900k exp)
- Distillates +2.95mm (-300k exp)
A Green sweep of inventory builds across crude and all products last week with Distillates stocks soaring by the most since July.
The Largest One-Day Increase of the U.S. Dollar Since March 2020 - The oil market traded lower on Wednesday as the U.S. dollar rallied following Donald Trump’s re-election as president. Traders expect a Trump presidency to support the dollar as interest rates may need to remain high to lower inflation resulting from any new tariffs and polices that may further pressure China’s economy. The crude market traded lower in overnight trading and continued to sell off early in the morning as the U.S. dollar was set for its largest one-day increase since March 2020. The crude market extended its losses to $2.25 and retraced almost 50% of its move from a low of $66.72 to a high of $72.67 as it posted a low of $69.74. However, the oil market bounced off its low and retraced its losses as the market focused on the possibility that the president elect could renew sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, which could remove barrels from the market, and the fact that the war in the Middle East continues. The market, which largely ignored the EIA weekly inventory report showing a build of over 2 million barrels in crude stocks, traded to a high of $72.63 by mid-day and later traded in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session. The December WTI contract settled down 30 cents at $71.69 and the January Brent contract settled down 61 cents at $74.92. The product market ended the session in negative territory, with the heating oil market settling down 3.42 cents at $2.27 and the RB market settling down 92 points at $2.0354. The EIA said U.S. exports of petroleum products increased to a record high of 7.62 million bpd in the week ending November 1st. Total petroleum product exports increased by 1.3 million bpd on the week, the largest increase since the week ending June 7th. The previous record for total petroleum exports was also in the week ending June 7th at 7.5 million bpd. The EIA reported that U.S. Midwest gasoline stocks fell by 100,000 barrels to 44.3 million barrels, the lowest level since November 2023 and U.S. Midwest distillate fuel stocks fell by 100,000 barrels to 26.3 million barrels, also the lowest level since November 2023.Analysts said that president elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House could mean tougher enforcement of U.S. oil sanctions against Iran, potentially cutting global supplies, but they added that his administration could struggle to get China, Iran’s top crude customer, to cooperate. Enforcing sanctions on Iran would support global oil prices, but the effect could also be offset by the president elect’s other policies, from measures to expand domestic drilling, the imposition of tariffs on China that could cut economic activity or an easing of relations with Russia that could increase its sanctioned crude shipments. Jesse Jones, head of North American upstream at Energy Aspects said a Trump administration return to a maximum-pressure campaign on Iran could lead to a 1 million bpd decrease in Iranian crude exports.The Iranian Student News Agency reported that Iran’s Revolutionary Guards’ deputy chief Ali Fadavi said Iran is ready for confrontation with Israel and does not rule out a pre-emptive strike by the U.S. and Israel, after Donald Trump claimed victory in the U.S. presidential election.The U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said about 17% or 304,418 bpd of crude oil production and 7% or 131 million cubic feet of natural gas output in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico was shut in response to Hurricane Rafael.
Trump's victory may pressure oil prices through 2025, Citi says (Reuters) - Citi forecasted on Wednesday that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's second term could exert downward pressure on oil through 2025, with Brent crude forecasted to average at $60 per barrel, primarily due to potential trade tariffs and increased oil supply. The bank notes that Trump's influence on OPEC+, which is made up of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, might prompt the producer group to taper production cuts faster, while potentially reducing geopolitical tensions and releasing some oil on water back into the market. Trump's policy could favor the industry through potential tax incentives for capital investment in exploration and production and could reverse the Biden era's increases in royalties, costs for minimum bids, and lease rates on Federal lands, Citi noted. Citi further notes that Trump's policies could have mixed global economic growth implications, particularly negative for Europe and China, which remain exposed to the risk of trade tariffs. This could further dent into global oil demand growth, posing downside risks to Citi's current global oil demand growth expectations of 0.9 million barrels per day for next year. "Still, despite the more supportive oil and gas agenda, its immediate impact on physical oil markets is likely to be limited," Citi said. After Republican Trump recaptured the White House with a sweeping victory on Wednesday, Brent crude oil futures settled down 61 cents, or 0.8%, at $74.92 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) fell 30 cents, or 0.4%, to $71.69. Trump's reelection triggered a large sell-off that pushed oil prices down by more than $2 per barrel during early trade as the U.S. dollar rallied, currently at its highest level since September 2022.
Oil slips as investors digest US election fallout - Oil slipped on Thursday, extending a sell-off triggered by the U.S. presidential election, as a strong dollar and lower crude imports in China outweighed supply risks from a Trump presidency and output cuts caused by Hurricane Rafael. Donald Trump’s election win initially triggered a sell-off that pushed oil down more than $2 as the dollar rallied. But crude prices later pared losses to settle at a less than 1% decline by the end of Wednesday’s session. Brent crude oil futures fell 63 cents, or 0.8%, to $74.29 a barrel by 1253 GMT on Thursday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude lost 73 cents, or 1%, to $70.96. Downside factors include a strong dollar and sluggish demand, while upside pressures come from potentially increased sanctions on Iran and Venezuela under Trump, as well as conflict in the Middle East, said Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen. “Some of these potential drivers will have no impact in the foreseeable future, but they all add up to the current narrative leading to rangebound trading,” he said. “Absent any major geopolitical escalation, the short-term outlook leans toward downside risk in my opinion.” The dollar held near four-month highs on Thursday as investors prepared for several central bank decisions, including from the U.S. Federal Reserve. A strong dollar makes oil more expensive for other currency holders and tends to weigh on prices. “Historically, Trump’s policies have been pro-business, which likely supports overall economic growth and increases demand for fuel,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova. “However, any interference in the Fed’s easing policies could lead to further challenges for the oil market.” Further downward pressure came from data showing that crude oil imports in China fell 9% in October - the sixth consecutive month showing a year-on-year decline - as well as from a rise in U.S. crude inventories. Trump is expected to reimpose his “maximum pressure policy” of sanctions on Iranian oil exports. That could cut supply by as much as 1 million barrels per day (bpd), according to Energy Aspects estimates. In his first term, Trump also put in place harsher sanctions on Venezuelan oil. Those measures were briefly rolled back by the Biden administration but later reinstated. Actual, rather than feared, supply cuts also lent support. In the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, about 17% of crude output or 304,418 bpd has been shut because of Hurricane Rafael, the U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said.
Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision - The oil market ended the session higher after it was well supported early in the afternoon ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. Early in Thursday’s session, the crude market remained steady following a volatile trading session on Wednesday. The market seemed ready to post an inside trading day as it traded to $72.29 in overnight trading and sold off to a low of $70.66 early in the morning. The market was pressured by news of China’s crude oil imports falling by 6% in October, the sixth consecutive month showing a year-on-year decline. The market later bounced off that low and breached its previous highs as it rallied to a high of $72.88 ahead of the Fed decision. The market’s reaction to the expected 25 basis point interest rate cut was muted as the market remained range bound following the Federal Reserve announcement. The December WTI contract settled up 67 cents at $72.36 and the January Brent contract settled up 71 cents at $75.63. The product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 1.64 cents at $228.64 and the RB market settling up 1.82 cents at $2.0536. Russell Hardy, CEO of Vitol, said global oil prices are expected to stay in the $70 to $80/barrel range in 2025, similar to 2024, while geopolitical risks create uncertainty around supply. He said there’s still a lot of geopolitical tensions, unknowns around the Middle East, around Iranian exports and Venezuelan exports under the new U.S. Trump presidency. He said China’s oil demand is expected to grow by 700,000 bpd in 2025.According to the General Administration of Customs data, China’s crude oil imports in October fell 9% on the year to 44.7 million metric tons or about 10.53 million bpd. That was down from 11.07 million bpd in September and 11.53 million bpd in October 2023. China’s January-October crude oil imports were down 3.4% at 457 million metric tons or 10.76 million bpd.The U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said that over 22% or 391,214 bpd of crude oil production and 9% or 181 mcf of natural gas output in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico was shut in response to Hurricane Rafael.The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point on Thursday, lowering the overnight interest rate to the 4.50%-4.75% range, as widely expected as policymakers took note of a job market that has “generally eased” while inflation continues to move towards the U.S. central bank’s 2% target. The central bank’s rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee said “Economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace.”U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said some of the downside risks to the economy have diminished amid stronger economic data, including retail sales and revisions to the National Income and Product Accounts data. He said that no decision has been made on what sort of policy action the Fed will take in December. He said “we are prepared to adjust our assessment of the appropriate pace and destination” for monetary policy amid uncertainty.
Oil Resumes Drop As China Economy Disappoints Amid Trump Return Fears - Crude oil is back in sharp decline today with more than 1.5% losses for both brent and WTI.The renewed decline in oil prices comes as hopes fade over the possibility of providing more support packages for the Chinese economy, which reinforces concerns about the future of demand for crude from its largest importers. The declines also come amid concerns about the effects of Trump's policies that could weaken the Chinese Economy and deepen those concerns. The Standing Committee of the Chinese Legislative Council, after its meeting that lasted throughout the working days this week, approved a package equivalent to $1.4 trillion as part of a debt swap program. However, the disappointment comes with the lack of disclosure of financial measures to support the economy directly, and the debt swap measures will only push the maturity dates of the debts forward, according to what was reported by the Wall Street Journal, citing economists.Adding to these disappointments, concerns about China's economic recovery could intensify if Donald Trump returns to the White House next year. He has signaled a willingness to reintroduce protectionist policies, potentially imposing tariffs as high as 60% on Chinese imports. Such measures would likely hurt China's export sector-a critical driver of its growth recovery-and heighten worries about future crude demand, which explains today's steep losses.On the other hand, any of the policies that Trump previously spoke about may not actually be implemented, but rather will be a tool to negotiate new terms of trade and do not mean a rupture between the two economies, according to John Paulson, who is considered to take over the Treasury Department in the new administration.This is not the only thing that the oil market may fear, as Trump's intention to support the production and extraction of fossil fuels and ease regulatory restrictions will put downward pressure on crude prices with the increase in supply.I also believe that uncertainty may cloud the oil market regarding the likely path of inflation and interest rates in the United States, as Trump's protectionist policies may fuel inflation, which may encourage the Federal Reserve to slow down the pace of rate cuts.While this was reflected in Jerome Powell's cautious tone after the central bank announced its decision to cut rates by 25 basis points. Trump's victory also weakened the possibility of cutting interest rates in January of the new year, to remain below 30% after exceeding 60% a month ago, according to CME FedWatch Tool figures.As for the geopolitical side, we do not find any certainty regarding the possible steps that Trump may take towards the Middle East front. The escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel may lead to the disruption of oil supplies from the region, which may lead to a rise in inflation again, which is what Trump may not want. This is because reducing fuel prices is a major part of Trump's plan to reduce inflation.On the other hand, Trump's intention, at least the declared one, to de-escalate the situation in the region may clash with the desires of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and behind him the far-right coalition who call for expanding the war and are counting on the Republican administration to give them a free hand in the region. While these conflicting interests may keep the uncertainty high in the markets.
Oil Prices Decline As Hurricane Risk Fades, China Demand Weakens -Oil prices retreated in Friday’s session as fears of damage on oil and gas infrastructure in the U.S. Gulf by Hurricane Rafael receded. Concerns about weakening demand in China have also contributed to the oil price decline, after data showing crude imports in China fell 9% in October. That marked the sixth consecutive month that imports by the world's largest oil importer declined on a year-over-year basis. Brent crude for January delivery was down 2.7% to trade at $73.76 a barrel at 11.40 am ET while WTI crude for December delivery fell 2.9% to trade at $70.28 per barrel. "The weakening of oil imports in China is due to weaker demand for oil as a result of the sluggish economic development and rapid advance of e-mobility," Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch told Reuters. Oil markets witnessed choppy trading in Wednesday’s session, with oil prices declining in the intraday session before jumping after Donald Trump defeated Kamala Harris to clinch leadership of the White House.The mixed reactions by oil markets are not hard to decipher. On one hand, U.S. oil producers are looking forward to fewer regulations on crude production under a Trump presidency, meaning higher oil supply and consequently lower prices. On the other hand, a Trump win also means more sanctions on Iranian and Venezuelan barrels, potentially boosting prices.. Whereas the ongoing hurricane season has contributed to large oil price rallies in recent months, the extreme weather is proving very costly for energy companies. On Thursday, North Carolina giant electric utility, Duke Energy Corp has provided estimates that the total cost to restore facilities damaged by Hurricanes Debby, Milton and Helene could fall in the range of $2.4 billion to $2.9 billion. According to CEO Lynn Good, tens of thousands of the company’s customers were left without power after Helene ripped away transmission lines and power poles, but the company managed to restore 5.5 million outages during the "historic storm season".
Oil settles down 2% on receding hurricane risk, lackluster China stimulus (Reuters) - Oil prices settled more than 2% lower on Friday as traders grew less fearful of prolonged supply disruptions from a hurricane in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, while China's latest economic-stimulus packages failed to impress some oil traders. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures led the decline and settled at 70.35 per barrel, down by 2.7%, or $1.98. Global benchmark Brent crude futures fell by 2.3%, or $1.76, to$73.87 per barrel.Energy producers shut in more than 23% of oil output in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico by Friday to brace against Hurricane Rafael. However, the latest forecasts on trajectory and intensity reduced the risks Rafael poses to oil production."Threats of supply outages due to Hurricane Rafael are subsiding as the storms shifts to circling in the center of the Gulf of Mexico for the next five days or so," Alex Hodes, analyst at brokerage firm StoneX told clients in a note.The storm, which left a trail of destruction in Cuba this week, had weakened to a Category 2 hurricane on Friday, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center's latest advisory. Meanwhile, top oil importer China's latest round of fiscal support disappointed oil investors. Chinese authorities announced a package easing debt-repayment strains for local governments, but those measures do little to directly target demand, UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said."I guess some market participants were hoping for more stimulus measures coming from China," he said. "Hence, the disappointment weighing on prices earlier today."Deflationary pressures on the Chinese economy have been a heavy drag on oil prices this year, with customs data showing a sixth consecutive month of year-over-year declines in the country's crude oil imports for October.Despite Friday's losses, oil prices gained more than 1% week-over-week, drawing support from expectations of tighter sanctions on Iran and Venezuela by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, which could cut oil supply to global markets.The U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point on Thursday could also helped lift oil prices by more than 1% in the previous session.
Salvors Begin Oil Removal from Greek Tanker Damaged in Houthi Attacks -- Salvors have begun the operation to transfer the crude oil remaining in the cargo tanks of the damaged Greek tanker Sounion nearly three months after the ship was first targeted by Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels. Sounion is now at an anchorage just south of the Suez Canal in Egypt. Participating in the offloading operation are the tug Aigaion Pelagos and the tanker Delta Blue, where the removed oil will be transferred. Delta Blue had also been the target of four separate attacks by the Houthis within a 24-hour period in early August.Approximately 150,000 tonnes of crude oil are believed to still be in Sounion's cargo tanks. Egyptian shipping ministry officials expect the removal effort to take between three and four weeks due to the volume of oil involved. Sounion had been targeted by repeated attacks by the Houthis while transiting the Red Sea in late August. One attack involved the use of an explosives-laden unmanned boat, which was promptly intercepted and destroyed by a French Navy warship that had arrived in the area to render assistance to the tanker.A number of fires ignited on board, but the ship remained afloat long enough to permit it to be towed to a safe location.Salvage experts had initially advised against the towing of the damaged tanker, saying that prevailing conditions will make the endeavour more challenging, while the US State Department had earlier remarked that the Houthis’ continued attacks on the tanker threatened to spill a million barrels of oil into the Red Sea, an amount four times the size of the Exxon Valdez disaster.
Iran Says It Won't Be Deterred by US Bomber Deployment to Middle East - On Monday, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said the new US B-52 bomber deployment to the Middle East wouldn’t deter Iran as Iranian officials are vowing there will be a response to Israel’s October 26 attack on Iranian territory.The US heavy bombers arrived in the region on Saturday as part of a deployment meant as a threat to Iran. The Pentagon said the bombers and other US military assets were being sent to the region to “defend” Israel.When asked about the US deployment, Baghaei said, “We have always believed that the presence of America in the region is a destabilizing presence” and added that it “will not deter [Iran’s] resolve to defend itself.” According to media reports, Iran is planning a major attack on Israel that may be launched from Iraqi territory. Publicly, Iranian officials are saying a response is inevitable, and Baghaei said it will be “definite and decisive.”Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian suggested on Sunday that Iran would soften its attack on Israel if a ceasefire were reached in Gaza and Lebanon, but there’s no sign the Israelis are thinking about ending the slaughter. Israel has also ramped up attacks on Syria in recent days.On top of the US bombers being sent to the Middle East, the Pentagon said Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin also ordered the deployment of additional US Navy destroyers, a fighter squadron, and tanker aircraft. The US also has a THAAD missile defense system and about 100 troops in Israel. If Iran decides to launch a major attack on Israel, it could also target US assets since the US is vowing to defend Israel.Israel launched airstrikes against military targets in Iran on October 26 in retaliation for the October 1 Iranian missile barrage that was fired into Israel in response to a string of Israeli escalations and assassinations in the region. The Israeli attack killed four Iranian soldiers and one civilian and did some damage to Iranian air defenses, but the extent is unclear.
US F-15 Fighter Jets Arrive in Middle East as Part of Buildup Aimed at Iran - The US military said Thursday that additional F-15 fighter jets arrived in the Middle East as part of a buildup meant as a threat to Iran as Tehran is vowing it will respond to Israel’s October 26 airstrikes on Iranian territory.“Today, US Air Force F-15E Strike Eagles from the 492nd Fighter Squadron, RAF Lakenheath, England, arrive in the US Central Command area of responsibility,” US Central Command wrote on X.The Pentagon announced last week that it was sending additional military assets to the region for the “defense” of Israel. CENTCOM said that B-52 bombers arrived in the region on November 2. According to flight and satellite data, six US B-52 bombers are at al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar. Haaretz reported that the US F-15 fighter jets were being sent to Jordan. The Pentagon said it would also be deploying additional US Navy destroyers and tanker aircraft to the region.Before the latest US deployments, the Pentagon sent a THAAD missile defense system and about 100 troops to Israel. The US assets in Israel and elsewhere in the region could become potential targets of Iranian missiles since the US is vowing to defend Israel.Recent media reports have said Iran is planning to launch a major attack on Israel from Iraqi territory. Baghdad has denied the rumors, sayingthey’re “false pretexts” to justify aggression against Iraq.
Iraq Denies Reports That Iran Is Planning to Attack Israel From Its Territory - The Iraqi government on Wednesday denied reports that Iran is planning to launch a major attack against Israel from Iraqi territory, saying the rumors were “false pretexts” meant to justify aggression against Iraq.“Iraq’s national interests demand distancing its land and airspace from the hostilities fueled by Israel’s expansionist and aggressive policies toward nations and peoples in the region,” Iraq’s Council for National Security said, according to The Cradle.Iraqi Shia militias have launched drone attacks on Israel, but the reports coming from US media say Iran has been planning something much more significant. Axios reported on Wednesday that US and Israeli officials claimed Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has been moving drones and ballistic missiles to Shia militias in Iraq in preparation for a joint attack.The US has reportedly warned Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani that if Iran launched an attack from Iraqi territory, the US wouldn’t stop Israel from striking Iraq.Iranian officials have vowed they will respond to Israel’s October 26 airstrikes, an attack that killed four Iranian soldiers and one civilian. Israel’s strikes came after Iran fired a barrage of nearly 200 ballistic missiles at Israeli territory on October 1, which came in response to a series of Israeli escalations in the region.The US is vowing to defend Israel from any potential Iranian attack and deployed additional military assets, including B-52 bombers, as a threat to Iran. The US pledge to back Israel could make US troops and military assets in the region potential targets of Iranian missiles.
Report: Israel Considers Attacking Iranian Nuclear Sites During US Transition - Israel is considering hitting Iran’s civilian nuclear facilities during the US presidential transition period, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday.The report cited an Israeli official familiar with the thinking inside the Israeli security cabinet who said the handover period might provide Israel with a window to attack Iran’s nuclear program. Realistically, Israel would likely need US support if it wanted to do significant damage to Iranian nuclear facilities that are buried deep underground. A US official speaking to Bloomberg ruled out the idea of President Biden ordering an attack on Iranian nuclear sites in cooperation with Israel, but the US is vowing to defend Israel if Iran responds to recent Israeli airstrikes that hit Iranian territory.The fact that Israeli officials are discussing the idea of hitting Iran’s nuclear sites signals that they are looking for another escalation with Iran before President-elect Donald Trump is inaugurated. During the last transition period in 2020, Israel carried out a covert attack inside Iran that killed Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, a nuclear scientist.The Israeli official speaking to Bloomberg said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu considered Iran’s nuclear program an “existential threat,” although there’s no evidence that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has decided to build a nuclear weapon, something that’s recently been affirmed by the CIA. However, Israel’s aggression in the region has prompted calls inside Iran to reconsider the nuclear doctrine. Khamenei issued a fatwa in 2003 prohibiting the development of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction.Iran is currently enriching some uranium at 60%, which is the highest level it has achieved but still lower than the 90% needed for weapons-grade uranium. Israeli aggression led to Iran increasing uranium enrichment to 60% as it took the step in response to a sabotage attackon its Natanz nuclear facility in April 2021. Before that, Iran took the step to increase uranium enrichment to 20% in response to the Israeli assassination of Fakhrizadeh.
Israel Confirms July Ground Raid on Southern Syria - There have been reports circulating for some time about Israeli commandos conducting ground operations inside southern Syria. Today, Israel confirmed one of those operations just a few months ago, in which commandos captured a Syrian citizen. The raid took place in July, and the man captured was identified as Ali Soleiman al-Assi, who was from the southern village of Saida in the Daraa governate. He was captured in the nearby Quneitra Governate.With news of the raid being made public, Assi’s reported identity has been substantially changed. He was initially reported as a man who drove a milk delivery truck in Damascus. Now he’s being accused of watching Israeli military positions in the occupied Golan Heights, and doing so on behalf of Iran.Even that claim seems to be further embellished by Israeli media outlets, who are presenting him as an Iranian spy. Israeli media also claimed that he was personally under surveillance by them for months before the raid.Pro-government Syrian radio Sham FM also reported on the incident today, describing it as a kidnapping operation. Assi’s fate isn’t entirely clear, though Israel reported that he was initially taken for interrogation. Israel has been conducting air strikes against Syria for years, and the number of such strikes has been on the rise in recent weeks alongside the escalation everywhere else. This is the first official confirmation of a ground operation in Syria though, and that may be substantial if these sorts of incidents continue in the future.
Israel Imposed Evacuation in Much of East Lebanon, But Many Attacks Outside Those Zones - Last week, Israel imposed massive evacuation orders including a lot of heavily populated parts of eastern Lebanon, including an evacuation of the entire ancient city of Baalbek. People started fleeing, and within hours, the missiles started hitting the city and surrounding areas.But where do the people go? With airstrikes having already damaged the border crossings into Syria, most people are having to go to towns and villages outside the evacuation zones. But are they any safer there?Not so far they aren’t, as of the Israeli airstrikes into eastern Lebanon,more are hitting areas outside the evacuation zones than the zones themselves. On Friday, 14 airstrikes were reported in eastern Lebanon, and fully 10 of them were outside of the designated zones.That’s a big problem, because again, the zones included a lot of the most densely populated areas. The small towns and villages people are fleeing into are having enough problems trying to absorb all these people without also coming under attack themselves.This isn’t an issue just in eastern Lebanon, of course. Yesterday, Israel carried out another attack on the town of Haret Saida, in the country’s southwest. It was the third time they’d attacked the town this week though it too is outside the evacuation zone. Haret Saida reportedly had taken in some 17,000 people from the surrounding area because it was conspicuously outside the zones for cities in the coastal area.Over 3,000 people have been killed across Lebanon in the ongoing Israeli invasion, and at least 1.2 million people have been displaced by the evacuation orders, which cover more than a quarter of Lebanon’s population.Inside and outside the zones, the attacks seem to be killing more civilians than combatants, and there is growing international criticism of Israel’s air war. In eastern Lebanon too, despite Israel emphasizing that they are targeting Hezbollah strongholds, the casualties are heavily civilian, and included a number of children. Reports out of Baalbek suggest that about a third of the city’s 100,000 people stayed behind, most because they had nowhere to go. Since the areas outside the city don’t seem safer, those broad evacuation orders may be viewed skeptically by many in the future.
Israel Killed Over 50 Children in Jabalia in 48 Hours: UN - Israeli strikes in Jabalia, northern Gaza, killed over 50 children in just 48 hours, the UN’s child relief agency, UNICEF, said in a statement on Saturday.“This has already been a deadly weekend of attacks in North Gaza. In the past 48 hours alone, over 50 children have reportedly been killed in Jabalia, where strikes leveled two residential buildings sheltering hundreds of people,” said UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell.Jabalia has been the focus of an Israeli ethnic cleansing campaign in northern Gaza that began in early October. The campaign has involved a starvation blockade and massive strikes on civilians, and Israeli troopsare preventing the approximately 50,000 Palestinians who have been forced out of Jabalia from returning.Russell said Israeli strikes included an attack on UNICEF staff working on a polio vaccination campaign for children and an attack on a vaccination center. The World Health Organization said at least six people, including four children, were wounded in the Israeli strike on the vaccination center.“The attacks on Jabalia, the vaccination clinic, and the UNICEF staff member are yet further examples of the grave consequences of the indiscriminate strikes on civilians in the Gaza strip,” Russell said. “Taken alongside the horrific level of child deaths in North Gaza from other attacks, these most recent events combine to write yet another dark chapter in one of the darkest periods of this terrible war.”Israeli strikes continued to pound northern, central, and southern Gaza on Sunday. Medical sources told Al Jazeera that at least 35 Palestinians were killed, including 16 in the north. An Israeli attack on a residential building in the southern city of Khan Younis killed seven members of the same family, including four children.Gaza’s Health Ministry said in its death toll update on Sunday that at least 27 Palestinians were killed and 86 were injured in the previous 24-hour period. The latest violence brought the ministry’s death toll since October 2023 to 43,341 and the number of wounded to 102,105.The Health Ministry’s numbers are considered an undercount since they don’t account for Palestinians missing and presumed dead under the rubble or indirect deaths caused by the Israeli siege. A group of American healthcare workers who volunteered in Gaza have estimated the US-backed Israeli bombing campaign and siege has killed at least 118,908 Palestinians, including over 60,000 who have starved to death. The genocidal slaughter would not be possible without US military aid, as Israeli officials have acknowledged they couldn’t sustain operations in Gaza for more than a few months without US support. The Israeli news site Calcalist has estimated the US has funded about 70% of Israel’s military operations over the past year.
Israel Informs UN of Its Plan To End Relationship With Palestinian Relief Agency - Israel formally notified the United Nations on Monday of its decision to end its relationship with the UN’s Palestinian relief agency, UNRWA, which millions of Palestinians rely on to survive.Israel said it was ending a 1967 agreement that regulated its relations with UNRWA. The move came a week after the Israeli Knesset passed legislation to ban UNRWA activities inside Israel and effectively end its operations in the West Bank and Gaza as well.The legislation, which is set to fully take effect within 90 days of the bills being passed, prohibits any contact between UNRWA and Israeli authorities, making UNRWA aid deliveries into Gaza impossible. The US warned Israel against implementing the legislation, acknowledging it would mean cutting off food supplies to starving women and children, but that hasn’t stopped Israel from moving ahead with the plan.UNRWA is responsible for the most significant humanitarian relief operations in Gaza, and the Israeli legislation did not include a plan to replace the agency’s efforts. The UN’s World Food Program said Monday that it was not in a position to replace UNRWA, pointing to its services, including “the administration of emergency shelters, schools, and health centers.”Israel has waged war against UNWRA over the past year, killing over 200 of its staff members in Gaza. Israel has claimed a significant number of UNWRA’s staff are members of Hamas but has offered no evidence for the allegations, which have been strongly rejected by the UN agency. The Israeli Knesset passed the bills to ban UNRWA as the number of aid deliveries into Gaza was at its lowest point yet. In early October, Israel imposed a starvation blockade on northern Gaza as part of its efforts to carry out an ethnic cleansing campaign known as the “general’s plan.”
Israel withdraws from 1967 agreement with UNRWA - Israel notified the United Nations on Monday that it was withdrawing from the 1967 agreement with UNRWA, the main aid agency for Palestinian refugees, following passage of two laws in the country’s parliament, the Knesset, severely limiting the U.N. agency’s operations in Israel, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. The notification was delivered in a letter to U.N. General Assembly President Philémon Yang and Secretary-General António Guterres. The letter said Israel stands ready to work with international partners, including other U.N. agencies, to ensure delivery of humanitarian assistance to Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. Israel Foreign Minister Israel Katz criticized the U.N. as failing to address allegations that UNRWA staff in the Gaza Strip participated in Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack on Israel, and said other international aid agencies are sufficient to substitute UNRWA’s work. “There are other international aid agencies that are not tainted by terrorist activity,” Katz wrote in Hebrew on the social platform X. Israel’s law limiting UNRWA’s activity in Israel is expected to come into effect early next year. The U.N. in August completed an investigation into Israeli allegations of terrorist activity among 19 UNRWA staff, saying evidence on at least nine employees indicated participation in the attacks but evidence in nine other cases was insufficient, and no evidence was available in one case. UNRWA has further said it raised protest with Hamas when it discovered that munitions have been stored in its facilities and that it has taken steps to dismantle tunnels discovered in or near its facilities, publicizes this information and raises protest with Hamas. Israel calls these steps insufficient. The U.S. halted its funding for UNRWA in the wake of Israel’s allegations that staff with the organization had participated in the Oct. 7 attack. “UNRWA, of course, plays a critical role in providing services to Palestinians in Gaza, the West Bank, and throughout the broader — the wider region. And particularly in Gaza, they play a role right now that, at least today, cannot be filled by anyone else,” State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said last week. “They are a key partner in delivering food, water, and other humanitarian assistance to civilians in Gaza that wouldn’t have anyone else to get it from if UNRWA were to go away.” Miller further said there could be consequences with U.S. law; the Biden administration has warned Israel that the hindering of delivery of humanitarian assistance could impact the delivery of U.S. military assistance to the country. “They certainly have a legal obligation to allow humanitarian assistance in and not to erect roadblocks to humanitarian assistance to people in Gaza,” Miller said. “And we have made that clear since the outset of this conflict, and a great number of our engagements with the government of Israel have been around ensuring that they do let humanitarian assistance in, and that they do ensure that humanitarian assistance gets to the people that need it. And that is precisely one of our major concerns about this legislation.”
UNICEF head warns everyone in Northern Gaza “is at imminent risk of dying” - Every man, woman and child who remains in northern Gaza “is at imminent risk of dying,” warned Catherine Russell, the director of the United Nations Children’s Fund, in a statement Saturday. Nearly one month ago, Israel began an assault on Northern Gaza to implement the so-called “generals’ plan” to ethnically cleanse the entirety of Northern Gaza. Virtually no food, water, or medical supplies have been allowed into the northern section of the Gaza Strip, forcing hundreds of thousands of people to flee. Those who remain, estimated at approximately 100,000 people, are cut off from all necessities of life and are being systematically starved or killed by Israeli bombardment. Israel’s “generals’ plan” is being carried out with the endorsement and support of the United States, which continues to fund and arm the Israeli genocide in Gaza. The US is also sending troops to the Middle East to aid Israel’s escalating war against the populations of Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and Iran. As a result of this starvation and killing campaign, “the entire Palestinian population in North Gaza, especially children, is at imminent risk of dying from disease, famine, and the ongoing bombardments,” Russell said. “This has already been a deadly weekend of attacks in North Gaza,” Russell added, noting that “In the past 48 hours alone, over 50 children have reportedly been killed in Jabalia, where strikes leveled two residential buildings sheltering hundreds of people.” She continued, “Taken alongside the horrific level of child deaths in North Gaza from other attacks, these most recent events combine to write yet another dark chapter in one of the darkest periods of this terrible war.” Russell said international law prohibits the targeting of civilians and humanitarian workers. “Yet these principles are being flouted over and over again, leaving tens of thousands of children killed, injured, and deprived of essential services needed for survival.” These statements were echoed by Rachel Cummings, a spokesperson for Save the Children, who told Al Jazeera: We are seeing the apocalypse now unfolding in the north of Gaza. People are being constantly bombarded with aerial attacks, and, of course, we know that the food and water are not sufficient. The convoys of food and water are being denied into the north... It is absolutely catastrophic. She added that 20,000 children are either missing or unaccompanied, and another 14,000 children have been confirmed killed. “[Children are] having to take on roles within family settings that are not for children. They take on caregiver roles. They have to take on fetching water, trying to find food,” she said. “They have seen things that no child should ever see.” The mass killing continued Sunday, with Israeli strikes killing 31 people in the Gaza Strip that day, Reuters reported. The killings took place in separate attacks on houses in Beit Lahiya town and Jabalia. Israeli forces attacked Kamal Adwan Hospital near Beit Lahiya, severely wounding a child and damaging the facility’s nursery. Dr. Hussam Abu Safia, director of the Kamal Adwan Hospital in northern Gaza, described to Al Jazeera the horrifying conditions that medical staff are working under. “As Israeli forces stormed the hospital and detained the entire medical staff, I, together with my assistant physician, we were left alone between a rock and a hard place, either to give up or start doing what we can to save lives,” Abu Safiya told Al Jazeera. “We’ve been flooded with victims suffering all kinds of injuries.” He concluded, “We have been abandoned by the whole world and left to work under unimaginably harsh and horrifying conditions.” In a statement, the Euro-Mediterranean Human Rights Monitor wrote: Since the beginning of August 2024, the Israeli army has targeted schools, hospitals, clinics, and shelter halls 65 times, including 39 times in the current month of October, killing 672 Palestinians and injuring over 1,000 more, according to the Euro-Med Monitor field team.
Israeli Forces Kill 33 More Palestinians in Gaza Within 24 Hours - Gaza’s Health Ministry said Monday that Israeli forces killed at least 33 Palestinians and wounded another 156 in the previous 24-hour period. The Health Ministry also reported Israeli shelling of the Kamal Adwan Hospital in Beit Lahia, northern Gaza, which has come under repeated Israeli attacks, and said there were many injuries.“The occupation forces continue to bomb and destroy Kamal Adwan Hospital violently, affecting all the hospital facilities. There are many injuries among the medical staff and patients,” the ministry wrote on Telegram. “It seems that a decision has been made to execute all the staff who refused to evacuate the hospital.”The hospital’s director, Dr. Hussam Abu Safia, said the situation was “catastrophic” and he hadn’t received any notice before the attacks began. “Several of our staff have been injured, and we are unable to leave the hospital,” he said, according to Al Jazeera. “We do not understand the purpose behind this bombing that is targeting the hospital.”Due to the repeated Israeli attacks, Kamal Adwan has not been able to treat patients. Al Jazeera reporter Hani Mahmoud said northern Gaza has been left without a properly functioning healthcare facility. “The entire northern part of the strip is left without any proper healthcare facility, the whole healthcare system is gone, is completely collapsing,” he said.
Report Details Israel's Ethnic Cleansing Campaign in Beit Lahia, Northern Gaza -A report from the Israeli newspaper Haaretz published on Wednesdaydetailed the situation in Beit Lahia, a city in northern Gaza near the Israeli border where Israeli forces are implementing an ethnic cleansing campaign.At the beginning of October, Israel ordered hundreds of thousands of Palestinians living in northern Gaza to head south. Many ignored the order since there was nowhere safe to go, and the Israeli military focused its renewed assault on the north on Beith Lahia and neighboring Beit Hanoun and Jabalia, where it imposed a full siege to starve out civilians.The Israeli military has said it forcibly expelled 55,000 Palestinians from the Jabalia refugee camp, and it has no intention of allowing them back. According to Haaretz, only a few thousand civilians remain in Beit Lahia and Beit Hanoun.“There is no intention of allowing the residents of the northern Gaza Strip to return to their homes,” IDF spokesman Brig Gen Itzik Cohentold reporters on Tuesday. Google Maps screenshot that shows the cities of Beit Lahia, Beit Hanoun, and JabaliaThe Haaretz reporters traveled to Beit Lahia and al-Atatra, a neighborhood northwest of the city, and described the destruction they saw. “In [al-Atatra] and Beit Lahia, there isn’t a single house that people can return to and live in. The area looks like it was hit by a natural disaster. There are no civilians to be seen among the ruins,” the report says.As an attempt to remove any remaining civilians, the Israeli military fires artillery into Beit Lahia at night. “Those who want to return can’t do so, because the army prevents it. The bottom line is that it makes no difference what the IDF calls its actions. The army has begun the stage of cleansing the northern Strip while it prepares to hold onto the area for a long time to come,” the report reads.Israeli media has reported that the Israeli military is carrying out a version of the “general’s plan,” an outline for ethnic cleansing drawn up by retired IDF generals. The plan calls for the complete evacuation of all Palestinian civilians from northern Gaza to below the Netzarim Corridor, a strip of land controlled by the Israeli military. Under the plan, if civilians don’t leave, they are to be treated as combatants and killed either by military action or starvation.While the Israeli military claims its cleansing campaign is about removing Hamas, the IDF commander in charge of Beit Lahia, Col. Yaniv Barot, acknowledged they found no significant militant infrastructure in the area. “Barot says his mission is to continue to locate and eliminate terror infrastructure and Hamas activists. But he says that in the course of the most recent operation, no underground infrastructure, heavy war materiel or weapons production sites were found,” the report says.The Haaretz report said the activity on the ground proves that the Israeli military is bisecting northern Gaza, potentially to pave the way for the construction of Jewish settlements, an idea strongly supported by many Israeli ministers and members of the Knesset.The Biden administration has claimed it opposes any implementation of the “general’s plan” and the advancement of settlements but has continued to provide military aid for the ethnic cleansing campaign
Netanyahu Fires Defense Minister Gallant - On Tuesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that he fired Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who was recently calling for Israel to make “painful concessions” to reach a hostage deal with Hamas.“Unfortunately, over the past months, the trust between me and the minister of defense has been broken. There were significant gaps regarding the management of the [military] campaign, and these gaps were accompanied by statements and actions that contradicted the decisions of the government and of the Cabinet,” Netanyahu’s office said in a statement.Gallant is set to be replaced by Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz. Gideon Sa’ar, a former Netanyahu rival who joined the government after Israel’s dramatic escalations in Lebanon in September, will replace Katz as foreign minister.Netanyahu’s decision to fire Gallant was slammed by the Hostages and Missing Families Forum, which represents relatives of Israeli hostages in Gaza. According to Haaretz, the group said the firing was part of Netanyahu’s “efforts” to torpedo any chances of a hostage deal with Hamas.The firing was praised by Israeli Minister of National Security Itamar Ben Gvir, who has called for the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians from Gaza and wants the establishment of Jewish settlements in the Strip. “I congratulate the prime minister on the decision to dismiss Gallant. With Gallant, who is still deeply trapped in his own conception, it is impossible to achieve a complete victory,” Ben Gvir said.Israeli opposition parties called for protests against Netanyahu over the firing, and thousands of demonstrators took to the streets in Tel Aviv to block traffic and light fires.Netanyahu and Gallant have been at odds over much of the past year. In August, Gallant called Netanyahu’s goal of “total victory” in Gaza “nonsense.” Gallant has repeatedly called for a deal with Hamas but made clear he only wanted a temporary deal and didn’t want to end the genocidal war.Comments from Gallant in October 2023 are often cited as evidence of Israel’s genocidal intent in Gaza. On October 9, 2023, Gallant said he ordered a “complete siege” on Gaza and said Israel was fighting “human animals.”Katz, Gallant’s replacement, also called for a total siege at the time. “Humanitarian aid to Gaza? No electrical switch will be turned on, no water hydrant will be opened, and no fuel truck will enter until the Israeli abductees are returned home. Humanitarianism for humanitarianism. And no one will preach us morality,” he said.
Gallant Says There's 'Nothing Left' for Israeli Troops to Do in Gaza - Israeli media reported Thursday that former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told family members of Israeli hostages that there’s “nothing left” for Israeli troops to do in Gaza and that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was only keeping them in the Strip “out of a desire to stay there.” Netanyahu fired Gallant on Tuesday, and according to The Times of Israel, Gallant’s conversation with the hostage families came just hours before his firing went into effect and former Foreign Minister Israel Katz officially replaced him.According to Israel’s Channel 12, Gallant told the families that “conditions were ripe” for a hostage deal with Hamas back in July and that he tried to convince Netanyahu to reach an agreement. “The head of the Shin Bet, the chief of staff, and I think the head of the Mossad also agreed with me,” he said.During negotiations in the summer, Netanyahu began demanding that Israel maintain control of the Gaza-Egypt border, known as the Philadelphi Corridor. At the time, Israeli media reports and comments from officials made it clear that Netanyahu inserted the demand as a way to sabotage the chances of a deal.“I can tell you what there was not, security considerations. The IDF chief and I said there was no security reason for remaining in the Philadelphi Corridor,” Gallant told the hostage families. “Netanyahu said that it was a diplomatic consideration, I’m telling you there was no diplomatic consideration.”Gallant said Israel had no reason to keep soldiers in Gaza. “There’s nothing left in Gaza to do. The major achievements have been achieved,” he said. “I fear we are staying there just because there is a desire to stay there.”
China October exports record highest jump in 19 months, imports decline more than expected -China's exports in October rose at their fastest pace in 19 months, sharply beating analysts' estimates, according to data from the country's customs agency on Thursday. Exports rose by 12.7% year on year to $309.06 billion in October — the highest jump since March 2023 when they rose 14.8%, according to LSEG data. That compares with 2.4% growth in September and 8.7% in August. Analysts had pegged exports growth at 5.2% year on year in October, according to a Reuters poll. Imports, however, fell by a more-than-expected 2.3% in October, customs data showed. That compares with a modest growth of 0.3% in September and 0.5% in August. Analysts had forecast a decline of 1.5% in October exports, according to a Reuters poll. "The better-than-expected export figures can be attributed to delayed shipments in October due to improved weather conditions, ongoing price discounts to capture market share, and the traditional peak season leading up to Christmas," Bruce Pang, chief economist of Greater China at JLL told CNBC. The world's second-largest economy has been grappling with weakening domestic consumption and a protracted property crisis, with exports being a rare bright spot. China's growing reliance on exports comes amid rising trade tensions with the U.S. and European Union amid stiff tariffs on Chinese electric cars — exports of cars still rose 11% on year last month — and other goods. In October, China's exports to the U.S. rose 8.1% while imports picked up 6.6% from a year ago, according to a CNBC calculation of official data. China's exports to the European Union and the Association of Southeast Asian Nation increased 12.7% and 15.8% on year, respectively. Imports from the two regions fell over 6%. China's exports to BRICS partner Russia surged nearly 27% on year while imports dropped 2.8%. Export growth in the beginning of next year is expected to continue to "perform quite well year-on-year" as companies rush to ship out goods before a potential trade war with the U.S. kicks in, Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management told CNBC's "Squawk Box" after the data release on Thursday. Donald Trump's victory in U.S. elections has raised concerns about higher tariffs, particularly on Chinese exports."In 2025, rising protectionism by the US and Europe would crimp the growth of Chinese exports. It is therefore important that fiscal stimulus adequately boosts domestic demand," said Erica Tay, director of macro research at Maybank.Chinese officials has unveiled a flurry of stimulus measuressince late September, including interest rate cuts, lower cash reserve requirements at banks and loosened property purchase rules, in a bid to revive the ailing economy.In October, China's factory activity expanded for the first time since April, with the official purchasing managers' index coming in at 50.1, beating September's 49.8 and analysts' estimate of 49.9.China's parliament standing committee meeting is underway, with expectations that it will announce details about further fiscal stimulus when it concludes on Friday.
China urges U.S. cooperation as Trump trade threat looms — China emphasized the need for greater cooperation with the U.S., a day after it became clear President-elect Donald Trump would become the next leader of the White House. "The Chinese side is willing, on the basis of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation, to increase communication with the U.S., expand cooperation and resolve differences," He Yongqian, spokesperson at China's Ministry of Commerce, told reporters Thursday in Mandarin, according to a CNBC translation. She was responding to a question about China's views and planned countermeasures, given the potential for increased U.S. tariffs and restrictions on high-end tech. "Together [we can] push China-U.S. economic and trade relations toward a stable, healthy and sustainable direction, for the benefit of both countries and the world," the commerce spokesperson said. Her comments echoed those of Chinese President Xi Jinping, who earlier in the day noted the benefits of bilateral cooperation in a congratulatory message to Trump, according to a Ministry of Foreign Affairs readout. Washington turned tougher on Beijing under Trump's first four-year term that began in 2017. This year, the president-elect threatened additional tariffs on Chinese goods while campaigning for his second mandate. Yue Su, principal economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said Trump will likely impose such tariffs in the first half of next year. She added that the Whiote House leader could speed up the process by invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act or Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows the president to impose tariffs of up to 15% in response to a serious balance-of-payments deficit. Other analysts are less concerned about a significant increase in U.S. tariffs targeting China. "Trump's current tariff proposal is likely the worst-case scenario," David Chao, Global Market Strategist, Asia Pacific (excluding Japan) at Invesco, said in a note Thursday. "I suspect the new administration will hold off imposing these tariffs in order to win concessions, whether that may be more purchases of American soybeans or even geopolitical ones." He added, "More so, I don't think Trump's proposed 60% tariff policy on China will significantly impact [multinational corporations'] confidence or sentiment." Chao nevertheless said that a potential 10% tariff on all exports to the U.S. would likely have a bigger impact, weakening global demand and hitting China and the rest of Asia.
Germany's ruling coalition collapses as Chancellor Scholz fires finance minister -- Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced Wednesday he had dismissed Finance Minister Christian Lindner, bringing an end to Germany's ruling coalition after months of political wrangling and raising the possibility of snap elections in March. The three-year-old union between Scholz's Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Greens and Lindner's Free Democratic Party (FDP) had been on shaky ground for some time, with differing budget and economic policy positions causing tensions and clashes. Speaking at a press conference late Wednesday, Scholz launched a tirade against Lindner, saying he was not concerned about serving for the common good and he was dismissed to prevent harm to the country. Scholz said he would call for a vote of no confidence on Jan. 15 in parliament, raising the possibility of elections earlier than scheduled in March. "Anyone who joins a government must act responsibly and reliably, they cannot run for cover when things get difficult," Scholz said at the press conference, according to a Reuters translation. "They must be willing to make compromises in the interests of all citizens ... But that is precisely not Christian Lindner's focus right now, he is focused on his own clientele." Both the FDP and the Greens confirmed late Wednesday that Lindner's departure would mean an end to Berlin's fractious coalition, although the latter said it would remain in office. The situation had been coming to a head in recent weeks, with speculation about a potential collapse ramping up earlier in the week. That came after a series of moves from the three parties, including a paper by Lindner of the FDP that outlined his vision to revive the German economy — crucially, however, by arguing against fundamental positions of the SPD and Green party. The parties had also been struggling to agree upon a 2025 budget, which still had a funding gap of several billions of euros and was still being negotiated. The deadline for the budget was set for later this month. Lindner said at his own press conference Wednesday that his party had made suggestions for an economic shift, which had been rejected by Scholz. He called Scholz's counter-suggestions unambitious. "The Free Democrats are still ready to carry responsibility for this country and we will fight to also do this in a different government next year," Lindner told reports, according to a CNBC translation. Lindner said that Scholz had demanded a pause to Germany's debt brake, which he could not accept. Enacted in 2009, Germany's debt brake limits how much debt the government can take on, and dictates the maximum size of the federal government's structural budget deficit. The rules say it can be no bigger than 0.35 percent of Germany's annual GDP.
Macron says Europe needs to defend its interests after Trump win --France’s president Emmanuel Macron said Europe should not reflect on whether President-elect Trump’s victory is “good,” but instead consider how it will impact the continent’s priorities. “I think that our role here, in the European Union, is not to comment on Donald Trump’s election to see if it’s good or not. He was elected by the American people, and he will defend the interests of the Americans. This is legitimate and a good thing,” Macron said Thursday in a video on the social platform X. “The question is whether we are ready to defend the interests of Europeans,” he added. “This is the only question he asked us.” Macron’s comments were similar to statements he made in 2018 during Trump’s first term as president. At the time, he said it was his job to “deal” with the president and not judge him.Two months later, he criticized the leader for his international tariffs at the G7 summits, claiming Trump didn’t care about being “isolated.”Eight years later, the Trump is promising to raise tariffs again in addition to heavily taxing imports. “The question he asked us is, do we want to read history written by others, the wars launched by Vladimir Putin, the American elections, the choices made by the Chinese in terms of technology or trade, or do we want to write history,” Macron said in the Thursday post. “I think we have the strength to write it.” “Our economies are strong, our countries have sophisticated defense systems, and we represent something,” he added. He concluded by urging the European Union to meet for a discussion on their collective interests.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.