week ending Nov 15

Markets no longer view the December rate cut as a sure bet, with Fed officials casting doubts - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell wasn't kidding a couple weeks ago when he said a December rate cut wasn't in the bag. Recent remarks from Powell's colleagues point to plenty of apprehension over whether the central bank should deliver its third consecutive easing of policy when it meets Dec. 9-10. As a result, markets have recalibrated their expectations. Whereas traders as recently as a few days ago were pricing in at least a 2-to-1 probability of a quarter percentage point cut, that's now flipped to a coin toss, according to futures markets readings tabulated by the CME Group in its FedWatch tool. "These developments chip away at our confidence the Fed will cut in [December] without giving us any more confidence a skip to [January] is a better bet," Krishna Guha, head of global policy and central bank strategy at Evercore ISI, said in a note. "This leaves us still seeing a [December] cut more likely than not but only 55-60 per cent." As of Thursday afternoon, the implied probability of a rate cut was at 49.4%, according to the CME gauge that uses prices on 30-day fed funds futures contracts to interpolate probabilities for rate moves. Futures prices pointed to a funds rate of 3.775% by the end of 2025, compared to the current level of 3.87%. A month ago, the market was assigning a 95% probability of a reduction. So what changed? Primarily, uncertainty at a time when theofficial data flow came to a halt due to the now-resolved government shutdown. Some Fed officials worry about flying blind on data at a time when the most recent readings point to a softening labor market but inflation that, while ebbing slightly, is still considerably above the Fed's 2% target. Moreover, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Wednesday that some of the data, particularly for October, may never come out. Those reservations showed up in an uncharacteristically blunt assessment Wednesday from Boston Fed President Susan Collins. During her time with the Fed, Collins has used cautious language to express her opinion on policy. But a speech she delivered in her home district left little doubt regarding her misgivings about inflation and the importance of the Fed to hold steady, at least for now, until there's greater economic clarity."Given my baseline outlook, it will likely be appropriate to keep policy rates at the current level for some time to balance the inflation and employment risks in this highly uncertain environment," Collins said. "I see several reasons to have a relatively high bar for additional easing in the near term."A central part of her case is that the economy generally looks solid even with the slowdown in hiring. Cutting rates more, Collins reasoned, risks pushing inflation higher at a time when the impact from tariffs is still uncertain."The current level of policy rates, in my view, leaves policy well positioned to address a range of potential outcomes and balance risks on both sides of our mandate," she said, referring to the Fed's dual mandate to maximize employment and keep prices stable.Collins' position puts her in a hawkish group that includes regional presidents Jeffrey Schmid of Kansas City who, unlike Collins, voted against the October cut, along with Beth Hammack of Cleveland and possibly Alberto Musalem of St. Louis and Lorie Logan in Dallas.On the opposite side of the rate fence are Governors Stephen Miran who, in his two meetings, has voted against quarter-point cuts in favor of half-point reductions, as well as Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman.Chair Powell, then, is left to build consensus following his comments after the October rate cut that "a further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion—far from it." There is no Fed policy meeting in November.

QE Is Coming: The 2008 Roots Of Fed Dominance -- Here we go again. The overnight funding markets are showing signs of stress, and the scent of QE is in the air. Per New York Fed President John Williams: Based on recent sustained repo market pressures and other growing signs of reserves moving from abundant to ample, I expect that it will not be long before we reach ample reserves. When that happens, it will then be time to begin the process of gradual purchases of assets. The question everyone should be asking is: why have the capital markets become so reliant on the Fed’s liquidity? The answer goes back to the 2008 financial crisis. Before 2008, the private market, not the Fed, was the primary source of liquidity. The Fed was rarely called upon to support liquidity. Since then, the Fed has seemingly constantly tinkered with its policy to manage liquidity. As some correctly say, the Fed has shifted from lender of last resort to the lender of only resort! Considering the significant impact liquidity has across all asset classes, it’s essential to appreciate this relatively new dynamic and understand why the Fed, rather than the private market, has become the primary liquidity manager of the financial system. Consequently, Fed policy, not free markets, now plays a crucial role in forecasting how today’s speculative excesses might return to their normal levels. Will it be a pop, a slow leak, or will the Fed keep bubbles afloat at any cost? Before explaining how Fed policy has evolved since the financial crisis, we want to highlight two charts that illustrate the difference in Fed policies before and after 2008. The first graph below charts the size of the Fed’s balance sheet since 2002. Before 2008, the Fed’s assets were growing at a slow and steady 4% pace. Not surprisingly, the 4% growth was roughly in line with economic growth. After 2008, the amount of its assets surged, and the volatility of its holdings increased significantly. The second graph, showing bank reserves held at the Fed, tells a similar story —calm before the crisis, followed by growth and volatility after the crisis. Clearly, something changed in 2008. Let’s explore what that is, and in doing so, we can better appreciate the Fed’s expanded role and why its policies have become much more closely integrated with the gyrations of financial markets. Managing Via Reserves Not Fed Funds (Post-QE World) Before 2008, banks held minimal excess reserves. Instead, they mainly met their liquidity needs by lending and borrowing reserves with other banks. Many of these transactions took place in the overnight Fed Funds market. The Fed did not set the Fed Funds rate back then, nor does it now. However, before the financial crisis, it guided banks toward its target rate through daily purchases and sales of Treasury securities. In 2008, the Fed introduced Quantitative Easing (QE). QE entails consistently purchasing securities regardless of liquidity conditions. Before QE, buying or selling was based on daily liquidity conditions. Because the Fed buys assets from banks with reserves, total reserves in the banking system have been grossly elevated since 2008. The impact of QE on the financial markets and economy is two-fold. First, the Fed removes securities from the market, allowing the liquidity in those securities to flow to other assets. Second, the new reserves on bank balance sheets can be used to support loan growth. The more reserves the banks hold, the more liquidity they can provide. We say “can” because the bank still must be willing and able to provide liquidity. Today, to maintain control of the overnight financing markets, the Fed pays interest on reserve balances (IORB). The Fed sets the IORB rate, which serves as a floor for the Fed Funds rate because banks will not lend their reserves for less than they can earn risk-free from the Fed. Thus, in the post-QE world, the level of bank reserves and the Fed’s IORB rate are predominant determinants of overnight liquidity. The graph below shows the stark increase and volatility in reserve balances following the first round of QE in 2008. Summary: Knowingly or unknowingly, post-financial crisis rules and regulations have kneecapped many of the old private-market liquidity providers. Without their capital and balance sheets, the Fed has become the primary source of market liquidity. To wit, consider the following quote from Jerome Powell in 2021: In a stress scenario today, the Federal Reserve is the only entity with the balance sheet to absorb the shock. While there is limited experience with the new monetary regime, we have learned that the Fed doesn’t have a straightforward way to assess liquidity conditions. For instance, the Fed was caught off guard in 2019 when overnight funding markets froze amid a liquidity squeeze. Conversely, in 2020 and 2021, in reaction to the pandemic, the Fed grossly oversupplied the markets with liquidity. In fact, it had to create the overnight reverse repurchase program to remove the excess reserves from the market. QT was also enacted to help. As we share below, those excess reserves are now gone, and not surprisingly, liquidity stress is occurring. In our view, QE or another policy move to increase bank reserves is imminent. The alternative is a deleveraging event, which would cause economic and financial market chaos.

Fed may soon start buying bonds to manage market liquidity, Williams says (Reuters) - New York Federal Reserve President John Williams reiterated on Wednesday the time is getting closer when the U.S. central bank will have to restart bond purchases as part of a technical effort to maintain control over short-term interest rates. Williams, in the text of a speech to be delivered to a conference at his regional Fed bank, noted that when these purchases happen they have no implications for monetary policy. He did not comment on the outlook for short-term interest rates in his prepared remarks. Instead, the New York Fed chief tackled the implications of the central bank's decision late last month to stop the drawdown of its balance sheet at the start of December. Williams said the Fed, by way of "inexact science," is looking for the level of reserves it considers to be "ample," which allows for firm control of the central bank's interest rate targets as well as normal money market trading conditions. "The next step in our balance sheet strategy will be to assess when the level of reserves has reached ample," Williams said. "It will then be time to begin the process of gradual purchases of assets that will maintain an ample level of reserves as the Fed's other liabilities grow and underlying demand for reserves increases over time." Williams' comment on the Fed's balance sheet followed a choppy period for short-term funding markets around the time of the October 28-29 policy meeting. The Fed cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to the 3.75%-4.00% range at that meeting to help bolster a weakening job market even as inflation remains stubbornly above the 2% target. The central bank also announced plans to stop shrinking the size of its balance sheet at the start of December, ending what had been called quantitative tightening, or QT, due to rising volatility in money markets. QT had been allowing Treasury and mortgage bonds owned by the Fed to run off and not be replaced, in a bid to remove the sea of liquidity that was added during the COVID-19 pandemic. That effort took the Fed's balance sheet from its overall $9 trillion peak in 2022 to the current overall level of about $6.6 trillion. In a speech last week, Williams flagged the looming need to soon commence gradual outright purchases of bonds to maintain a balance between market liquidity and a growing economy. Williams also said in his prepared remarks on Wednesday that a new tool called the Standing Repo Facility, or SRF, which provides fast cash to eligible banks, has been working well as a source of liquidity for those who need it, and he encouraged banks to tap it without worrying that borrowing from the Fed signals a problem. The SRF's "effectiveness relies on market participants availing themselves of the SRF based on market conditions, free of worries about stigma or other impediments," Williams said, adding "I fully expect that the SRF will continue to be actively used in this way."

Miran says Fed should cut 25bps in December 'at a minimum' - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said emerging stresses in housing and private credit markets warrant a reduction to short-term interest rates. While preferring a 50 basis point cut in December, Miran said he would settle for a 25 basis point reduction.

Fed Gov. Miran has a view on the economy. Is it persuasive? - Fed Gov. Stephan Miran has spent his short tenure at the central bank arguing that disinflation in housing and immigration reforms will tamp down inflation in the near term. But other economists say the timing, degree and context of those effects is very much in question.

More Doves Incoming: Atlanta Fed President Bostic To Retiring Feb 2026 - More turnover at the Fed ahead of what can be a historic, for the US central bank, year as Trump prepares to stack the Fed with a deep bench of uber-doves. With the "fired" Lisa Cook's lawsuit marinating at the Supreme Court, moments ago the Atlanta Fed announced that its president Raphael Bostic would retire at the end of his current term in February.Bostic, who in the press release was described as "the first African American and openly gay president of a regional Federal Reserve Bank in its 111-year history" took the helm at the Atlanta Fed in 2017; he will step down on Feb. 28, the Atlanta Fed said in a statement. “I’m proud of what we accomplished during my tenure to turn the lofty goal of an economy that works for everyone into more of a reality, and I look forward to discovering new ways to advance that bold vision in my next chapter,” Bostic said in the Wednesday statement. Bostic, a hawk who has been vocal this year about the risks of lingering inflation and urged his colleagues to be cautious about lowering interest rates due to tariffs, is perhaps best known for a big trading scandal, where trades on Bostic's behalf took place during prohibited "blackout" periods around Federal Open Market Committee meetings 154 times between March 2018 and March 2023. He also filed inaccurate disclosure forms, held more Treasury securities than allowed and twice executed trades that were different than those that he sought central bank clearance for.In 2024, the Fed's in-house watchdog said Bostic's trading and investing broke central bank rules, and Bostic created the appearance he acted on confidential information and the appearance of a conflict of interest, in violation of the Atlanta Fed's code of conduct. However, perhaps due to his background (see above) the report said investigators found no evidence that Bostic in reality used inside information about Fed deliberations or had financial conflicts of interest.While Bostic doesn’t vote on monetary policy decisions this year, Bostic said he supported the Fed’s two rate reductions in September and October. He has emphasized, however, that monetary policy should remain restrictive while inflation is still above the central bank’s 2% goal.His departure will further shake up the US central bank at a time when it’s experiencing other high-profile personnel changes and unprecedented political pressure from the President Donald Trump to lower borrowing costs. Bostic will leave a few months before the Fed comes under new leadership, with Chair Jerome Powell’s tenure at the head of the central bank set to end in May.

Bessent credits Trump policies for bond market --Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Wednesday said the administration's economic policies were addressing affordability for Americans. Speaking Wednesday at the New York Fed's Treasury Market Conference months after Trump's "liberation day" trade policies sparked instability in the Treasury market, Bessent said the U.S. had the "best-performing developed bond market this year," and situated the department's work within President Trump's push to "make America affordable again."

• Key insight: Bessent says Trump policies boost Treasury market, lower borrowing costs.
• Supporting data: Treasury returns are up 6% this year.
• Forward look: Treasury to keep auctions steady, avoid market shocks.

The Treasury secretary highlighted the impacts the bond market has on affordability and previewed regulatory tweaks the administration is eyeing to keep yields stable and credit flowing.

Mediocre, Tailing 10Y Auction Sees Subdued Foreign Demand - With the bond market closed on Tuesday for Veterans Day, the week's staggered Treasury auction schedule caught up with where it should be at 1pm ET today when the Treasury sold $42BN in 10Y notes as part of the quarterly refunding exercise, in what was a mediocre auction. The auction priced at a high yield of 4.074% down from 4.117% last month, and the second lowest since last October; it also tailed the When Issued 4.068% by 0.6bps, the second straight tail (followed a 0.3bps tail in October). The bid to cover also disappointed, dropping from 2.478 to 2.433, which was the second lowest since August 2024. The internals were mediocre at best, with Indirects taking down 67.0%, up from 66.8% but well below the 70.2% recent average. And with Directs awarded 22.55%, Dealers were left holding 10.5%, the most since August. While the tailing 10Y auction was on the weak side, and the market reacted with pushing yields out modestly across the curve, they were already at session lows so there was certainly space for the move in a day that has another midday swoon across the tech space, with bitcoin plunged all morning (again).

Ugly, Tailing 30Y Auction Sends Yields Higher -After yesterday's mediocre, tailing 10Y auction, and with yields pushing higher today, prospects for the week's final coupon auction, today's $25BN in 30Y bonds, were not too exciting. Which is a good thing because the just concluded final refunding auction was quite disappointing. The auction stopped at high yield of 4.694%, down from last month's 4.734%, but it also tailed the When Issued 4.684% by 1.00 basis point. This was the second tail in a row, and the biggest since August when the auction tailed by 2.1bps.The bid to cover was 2.295, down from 2.382 and the lowest since August, when it was 2.266. Take that auction out and today's BtC would have been the lowest since 2023.The internals were more solid, with Indirects taking down 71.0%, up from 64.5% and the highest since Oct 2024. Yet this was more than offset by the slide in Directs which took only 14.5%, down sharply from 26.9% in October and the lowest since October 2024. Finally, Dealers were left holding 14.5%, the most since August.Overall, this was another subpar, tailing auction, and the only saving grace was the rebound in foreign buyers. Yet judging by the move higher in yields across the curve, the market was clearly disappointed with today's auction.

Government Sold $694 Billion of Treasuries this Week, Debt Hits $38.2 Trillion, Treasury Yields Rise Further, Shift to T-Bills Begins by Wolf Richter This week, despite being shortened by Veterans Day when the bond market is closed, the government sold $694 billion in Treasury securities spread over 9 auctions on three days. Of these auction sales, $549 billion were Treasury bills with maturities from 4 weeks to 52 weeks, including $110 billion of 4-week bills, and $101 billion in 6-week bills. (table) And $144 billion of the auction sales this week were notes and bonds, including $48 billion of 10-year notes and $29 billion of 30-year bonds. (table) The note and bond auction sales replaced some maturing notes and bonds, and added a lot of new debt, and this is where the debt grows in leaps and bounds. For example: The $48.5 billion of 10-year Treasury notes sold at auction this week at a yield of 4.07% replace $24.1 billion of 10-year notes that were issued in November 2015 at a yield of 2.30% and mature now: The issue amount doubled, and the yield is 1.77 percentage points higher, on double the principal! T-bills mature constantly in huge volume and have to be replaced with new sales just to stay level. The $101 billion of 6-week T-bills sold on November 10 will mature on December 26 and will be replaced via new auction sales, plus whatever amounts will be added to the auction to fund the ongoing deficits. The $82 billion of 26-week T-bills sold this week will mature on May 14, 2026, and will have to be refinanced then via a new issue, plus whatever new funds will be needed to fund the additional deficits. As the T-bill pile grows, the auctions get larger and larger as maturing T-bills will have to be refinanced, on top of the issuance needed to fund the ongoing deficits with new T-bills. So the already huge T-bill auctions will become gigantic. But so far, so good. These T-bill auctions are well-oiled machines. Investors, including big companies, often use T-bills on automatic rollover to manage their cash, like they would use money market funds. The Fed is also preparing to replace maturing MBS with T-bills after QT ends in December. MBS will continue to come off the balance sheet after QT ends until they’re gone. At the current rates at which MBS come off the balance sheet, the Fed would buy $15-19 billion in T-bills a month. The market has to continue to absorb that amount of MBS. The Fed has already shed $670 billion of MBS since QT started, but still holds $2.1 trillion that it will replace with $2.1 trillion in T-bills as these MBS come off over the next few years. And investors are going to have to absorb an extra $2.1 trillion in MBS. T-bills outstanding ballooned to a record $6.59 trillion by the end of October, but notes and bonds outstanding ballooned too, and so the share of T-bills of the overall marketable debt isn’t setting records: T-bills’ share of the $30.0 trillion in marketable Treasury securities (= total debt minus securities “held internally,” such as by government pension funds) at the end of October rose to 22.0%, which is high, but well below the two recent crisis dates. During crisis events, the government issued huge amounts of T-bills quickly to fund its sudden stimulus and bailout expenditures, which for short periods causes T-bills’ share of the total to spike, such as to a 34.4% share in November 2008 during the Financial Crisis, or to a 25.5% share in June 2020. During those times, the Fed became a huge buyer as part of its QE program. Long-term yields are under pressure, despite the rate cuts by the Fed. The 10-year Treasury yield rose today by 4 basis points to 4.15% currently, after having dipped below 4% just before last rate cut. The 10-year Treasury yield (red) is now 27 basis points above the EFFR (blue). In normal credit markets, long-term yields, such as the 10-year Treasury yield, are quite a bit higher than short-term yields, such as the EFFR: The ballooning federal debt hit $38.12 trillion as of November 13. The portion of the issuance that replaces maturing debt does not add to the US government debt. But the additional issuance to fund the new deficits adds to the amount of the debt.

Senate votes to advance proposal to end 40-day government shutdown - A group of shutdown-weary Democratic senators voted with Republicans on Sunday night to advance a legislative vehicle to reopen the federal government and end the 40-day shutdown that has left tens of thousands of workers furloughed and caused chaos at the nation’s airports. The Senate voted 60-40 to proceed to a House-passed continuing resolution to reopen the government, taking a big first step toward ending the shutdown after a group of centrist Democrats negotiated a funding deal with Senate Republican colleagues and the White House. Senate Democrats blocked that same House-passed bill to fund the government on 14 previous occasions. But a group of centrist and retiring Democrats felt intense pressure to reopen the government after Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program funding expired Nov. 1 and staff shortages among air traffic controllers resulted in major delays at airports. Eight Democrats voted to take up the House bill. The group included Senate Democratic Whip Dick Durbin (Ill.), who will retire at the end of the year, and Sens. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) and Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.), and Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.), who represents more than 144,000 federal employees in his home state. Sen. Angus King (I-Maine), who caucuses with Democrats, also voted yes. He worked closely with Shaheen and Hassan to craft the agreement to reopen the government. Sens. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) and Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) voted to end the shutdown, as well, reflecting the position they’ve held for weeks. Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) joined with her home-state colleague, Cortez Masto, in voting for the measure. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) now plans to amend the House-passed legislative vehicle with the compromise deal worked out with Shaheen, Hassan, King and others. Shaheen, a member of the Appropriations Committee, worked with committee Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) on the funding bills included in the package. Shaheen, who is retiring at the end of next year, acknowledged some of her Democratic colleagues aren’t happy with the deal, which does not include language to extend enhanced health insurance subsidies. But she argued that keeping much of the federal government closed would only prolong the pain felt by millions of Americans and likely not result in a breakthrough on health-care costs. “I understand that not all of my Democratic colleagues are satisfied with this agreement, but waiting another week or another month wouldn’t deliver a better outcome. It would only mean more harm for families in New Hampshire,” Shaheen said at a press conference after the vote. That proposal would fund military construction, veterans’ affairs, the Department of Agriculture and the legislative branch though Sept. 30, 2026. It includes a stopgap measure to fund the rest of government through Jan. 30. The compromise proposal includes language to retain more than 4,000 federal workers targeted for layoffs during the shutdown as well as language to prevent the Trump administration from firing additional federal workers through reductions in force (RIFs) for the length of the newly drafted continuing resolution — until Jan. 30. Kaine was involved in negotiating the protections for federal workers. Passage of the bill sets the stage for the House of Representatives to return to Washington after being away for seven weeks to vote to send the legislation to President Trump’s desk. Thune agreed as part of the broader deal to schedule a vote later this year on legislation to extend the enhanced health insurance premium subsidies under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) that are due to expire in January. The Senate GOP leader, however, did not guarantee that any bill to extend the subsidies will pass the Senate or — if it passes the upper chamber — get a vote in the House. Hassan and King focused on getting Thune to agree to a vote in December on extending enhanced health insurance subsidies. The deal would ensure that a substantial portion of the federal government is funded through Sept. 30 with regular appropriations bills, a top Democratic priority, and it sets the stage for Congress to act on other regular spending bills funding the Pentagon and the Department of Health and Human Services. It was cobbled together after weeks of negotiations between Shaheen, Hassan, King and Republican members of the Appropriations Committee, as well as the Senate GOP leadership and the Trump White House. Sunday’s vote capped weeks of intense negotiations, during which Democratic senators spent many hours in the Capitol basement trying to figure out a way to end the standoff.

What's in the legislation to end the federal government shutdown (AP) — A legislative package to end the government shutdown appears on track Monday after a handful of Senate Democrats joined with Republicans to break the impasse in what has become a deepening disruption of federal programs and services, the longest in history. What’s in and out of the bipartisan deal drew sharp criticism and leaves few senators fully satisfied. The legislation provides funding to reopen the government, including for SNAP food aid and other programs, while also ensuring backpay for furloughed federal workers the Trump administration had left in doubt. But notably lacking is any clear resolution to expiring health care subsidies that Democrats have been fighting for as millions of Americans stare down rising insurance premiums. That debate was pushed off for a vote next month, weeks before the subsidies are set to expire. President Donald Trump noted the deal as he arrived at the White House after watching the Washington Commanders’ game on Sunday evening against the Detroit Lions, on the 40th day of the funding lapse. “It looks like we’re getting close to the shutdown ending,” he said. The Senate could wrap up passage as soon as Monday. The bill cleared a procedural hurdle, 60-40, late Sunday, with eight Democrats joining most Republicans. In a rare dissent, Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer of New York voted against because it failed to fully address the health care funds. It would next go to the House, where lawmakers have been away since September but were being told to prepare to return to Washington this week. Then, it’s to Trump’s desk for his signature. Included is funding to keep much of the federal government running for the next couple of months, to Jan. 30, with a stopgap measure. It largely funds government operations at their current rates. Yet in a breakthrough for what’s considered a more normal appropriations process, the package also includes several bills to fully fund other government operations including agricultural programs and military construction along with veterans’ affairs for the full fiscal year, through September 2026. Additionally, the package ensures states would be reimbursed for money they spent to keep the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, known as SNAP, and the Women, Infants and Children program, or WIC, running during the shutdown. The Democrats failed to secure their main demand during the shutdown, which was an extension of the health care subsidies that many of the 24 million people who buy insurance through the Affordable Care Act rely on to help defray costs. Instead, the package guarantees a vote on the issue in December — which was not enough for most of the Democrats, who rejected the deal and voted against it. The package seeks to roll back some of the Trump administration’s shutdown-related hits to the federal workforce. Employees have faced repeated threats of firings and mass layoffs this year. The stopgap measure reinstates federal workers who had received reductions in force, or layoff, notices and protects against such future actions. It also would provide back pay for federal workers who were furloughed or working without pay during the shutdown — something that’s traditionally provided but that the Trump administration had threatened was not guaranteed. Political and procedural hurdles remain as Congress, which is controlled by Republicans, slogs through more voting and the shutdown entered its 41st day Monday. Senators hope to skip past a series of steps that could drag voting out all week if the dissenters put up a prolonged fight. One Republican, Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, voted against advancing the package Sunday, and he is said to have concerns over a hemp industry provision. And three ultra-conservative GOP senators held up voting for more than two hours as they demanded consideration of their ideas. It is unclear if any of them plans to stage further protests. Democrats, who have fought for the past month in their hopes of preserving the health care subsidies, also could delay final passage, and their next steps are uncertain. And the package faces fresh scrutiny once it goes to the House, where Speaker Mike Johnson of Louisiana holds a slim GOP majority and would likely need almost all Republicans to support the bill in the face of objections from Democrats who are holding out for the health care funds. House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York said the party will fight the bill, forcing the Republicans in the House to pass it largely on their own.

These are the 8 Senate Democrats who voted to end the shutdown - Eight members of the Senate Democratic caucus voted Sunday evening to proceed to a House-passed continuing resolution, taking a major step toward ending the 40-day shutdown. The Senate voted 60-40 to advance the House bill, which will serve as the legislative vehicle for a bipartisan deal to fund military construction, veterans’ affairs, the Department of Agriculture and the legislative branch through Sept. 30, and the rest of government through Jan. 30. It sets the stage for the House to return to Washington later this week to vote on the bill in hope of getting to President Trump’s desk for his signature. Here are the Democrats who voted to break the logjam in the Senate: Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) has been the most outspoken critic of the Senate Democratic leadership’s strategy to block a clean, House-passed continuing resolution to fund the government in an attempt to get Republicans to agree to an extension of enhanced health insurance premiums. Fetterman has argued for weeks that Democrats didn’t have any real leverage in the government funding battle, even though he supports the Democratic leadership’s desire to extend insurance subsidies under the Affordable Care Act (ACA). Sen. Angus King (I-Maine) is an independent who caucuses with Democrats and supports extending health insurance premiums, but he expressed his concerns at the start of the shutdown that failing to fund government would hand too much power to Trump. “As serious as the health insurance crisis is, I believe the shutdown itself and the additional powers it conveys to Donald Trump and his henchmen, is the greater risk. The greatest challenge our country faces right now is the accelerating slide toward authoritarianism,” King said last month. Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev. voted for the House-passed bill to fund government in late September and has consistently voted to reopen the government since it shut down more than five weeks ago. “I cannot support a costly shutdown that would hurt Nevada families and hand even more power to this reckless administration,” she said Sept. 30, when she voted to avoid the shutdown. She warned that a government shutdown would force tens of thousands of Nevada military personnel, union members, law enforcement agents and military nurses to work without pay. She also said a shutdown would cost the nation’s travel and tourism economy $1 billion in lost revenue per week. Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) has talked tough throughout the shutdown about getting Republicans to address what Democrats call the “crisis” of rising health care premiums. She hailed a promise from Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) to vote in December on a bill to extend generous subsidies under the ACA as a significant concession. “The concession we’ve been able to extract to get closer to extending the Affordable Care Act tax credits is a vote on a bill drafted and negotiated by Senate Democrats. Let me be clear: I will keep fighting like hell to ensure we force Republicans to get this done,” she said Sunday. Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), the Senate Democratic whip and the No. 2-ranking member of the Senate Democratic leadership, voiced his concern over the impact of the shutdown on federal workers last month when the American Federation of Government Employees called on Democrats to pass a clean continuing resolution. He said Oct. 27 that the union’s statement had “a lot of impact.” Durbin on Sunday cited the strain on federal workers who have been required to work without paychecks for more than a month. “For 40 days — the longest shutdown in U.S. history — federal workers went without paychecks. This includes our air traffic controllers, whose towers were already understaffed. They continued to work 10 hours days, six days per week to keep our airspace safe, with this additional stress at a life-saving job,” he said in a statement. He does not plan on running for reelection in 2026. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), a senior member of the Senate Appropriations Committee, played a leading role in negotiating the deal to reopen the government. Shaheen worked closely with King to assemble a group of as large as 12 Democrats to negotiate an off-ramp to the shutdown. She touted the agreement with Thune to hold a vote next month on extending the enhanced ACA subsidies. “This agreement gives Democrats control of the Senate floor — at a time when Republicans control every level of power — on one of our top legislative priorities: Extending the enhanced premium tax credits to make health care more affordable for millions of Americans,” she said in a statement. Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) worked closely with Shaheen, her home-state colleague, in recent weeks to reopen the government and set the stage for what she hopes will be “serious, bipartisan negotiations to extend the ACA’s expiring tax cuts for health insurance.” “At a time when families desperately need relief, Washington’s dysfunction is making life harder for families,” she said. She said she heard “from families” in New Hampshire “about the deep pain the government shutdown has caused.” She noted the Senate deal will fund SNAP benefits through Sept. 30 and ensure that law enforcement personnel, air traffic controllers and other federal workers get paid. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) represents more than 140,000 federal workers in Virginia, and he focused on getting language in the Senate deal to ensure federal workers who were furloughed during the shutdown get backpay, and the more than 4,000 federal employees that the Trump administration attempted to lay off through reductions in force (RIFs) are retained. Kaine said he wanted to end what he called the “mischief” of the Trump administration during the shutdown and during the period government is funded by a short-term continuing resolution. He secured language in the deal to ensure the Trump administration cannot attempt any additional RIFs during the length of the newly drafted stopgap spending measure, which would last through Jan. 30. “This legislation will protect federal workers from baseless firings, reinstate those who have been wrongfully terminated during the shutdown, and ensure federal workers receive back pay, as required by a law I got passed in 2019,” he said in a statement. “That’s a critical step that will help federal employees and all Americans who rely on government services.”

Lawmakers release final fiscal 2026 agriculture bill - Congressional appropriators have released the first final spending bills of the fiscal 2026 cycle, including legislation to fund the Department of Agriculture. Lawmakers on Sunday unveiled their Agriculture-FDA, Military Construction-Veterans Affairs and Legislative Branch bills. The idea is to pass them along with a stopgap for other agencies to end the government shutdown. The Agriculture-FDA bill includes $26.7 billion in discretionary spending and rejects many cuts proposed by the White House and House appropriators. Senate Democrats said the bill would provide $903 million for conservation programs while rejecting the White House’s call to scrap discretionary funding for conservation technical assistance. The Military Construction-VA bill includes more than $1 billion to help promote resilience. The Energy Resilience and Conservation Investment Program would get more than $700 million. Appropriators finalizing and releasing the three-bill minibus doesn’t mean there’s an agreement to end the shutdown. Democrats and Republicans are still working out differences related to Obamacare subsidies. Also, House Appropriations ranking member Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.) objected to releasing the text absent a broader accord.

Senate’s shutdown-ending deal includes key farm policies - The Senate is agreeing to extend major agriculture policies through fiscal 2026 as part of its deal to end the government shutdown.The continuing resolution package that advanced in a procedural vote Sunday night includes a full-year funding bill for the Department of Agriculture and the Food and Drug Administration, ensuring that major anti-hunger programs will be fully funded again after weeks of delays and missing benefits.It includes money to reimburse USDA nutrition contingency reserves that the department was ordered to tap to pay for partial Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits during the shutdown. The agreement also extends crucial farm policies that were set to expire at the end of the year.

Deal to end government shutdown slowed by Rand Paul objection on hemp language Senate Republican and Democratic leaders say they need to resolve an objection from Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) about a provision in the government funding deal before they can accelerate consideration of the bill to end the 41-day shutdown. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) told reporters Monday morning that there is only one “objector” to speeding up Senate consideration of the government funding package, referring to Paul, who wants to strip a provision from the package that would prevent the unregulated sale of intoxicating hemp-based products. Paul said he’s doing his just doing his job by standing up for Kentucky’s hemp industry. He argued that he’s fully entitled under the Senate rules to use all the procedural time at his disposal to scrutinize the government funding package — which he opposes. “Just to be clear: I am not delaying this bill. The timing is already fixed under Senate procedure. But there is extraneous language in this package that has nothing to do with reopening the government and would harm Kentucky’s hemp farmers and small businesses,” Paul said in a statement posted on X, the social media platform. “Standing up for Kentucky jobs is part of my job,” he wrote. Paul wants to strip out language from the bill funding the Department of Agriculture that would ban the unregulated sale of intoxicating hemp-based or hemp-derived products, such as Delta-8, from being sold online or at gas stations and corner stores. A spokesperson for Paul said the Kentucky senator wants to reopen the government right away, but he has a major problem with provisions in the bill that “unfairly target Kentucky’s hemp industry.” Paul’s spokesperson said the language is “unrelated to the budget and the government-reopening goal.”

Airport pain worsens as government shutdown drags on -(AP) — The pain Americans are facing at airports across the country is expected to get worse this week if Congress is unable to reach a deal to reopen the federal government.U.S. airlines canceled more than 1,500 flights Saturday and more than 2,900 Sunday to comply with an FAA order to reduce traffic as some air traffic controllers, who have gone unpaid for nearly a month, have stopped showing up for work.As of early Monday, airlines had already canceled nearly 1,600 flights for Monday and nearly 1,000 for Tuesday. The Senate took a first step toward ending the shutdown Sunday, but final passage could still be several days away and experts have said it will take time for flights to go back to normal even after the government reopens. Many airports are facing significant delays for flights that haven’t been canceled as well, with airports in Newark, Orlando, Chicago and Detroit all facing departure delays of more than an hour and increasing, according to FlightAware. This is the second pay period that air traffic controllers have not received any pay for their work. The head of the air traffic controllers union, Nick Daniels, will hold a press conference Monday morning to address the impact the shutdown is having on them.The delays and cancellations are likely to get worse as airlines are increasingly unable to reposition planes, pilots and flight attendants due to the air traffic controller shortage.The FAA implemented a 4% mandatory reduction in flights this weekend to manage staffing. That will increase to 6% on Tuesday and 10% reduction by this upcoming weekend. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said on “Fox News Sunday” that additional flight cuts of up to 20% might be needed. “More controllers aren’t coming to work day by day, the further they go without a paycheck,” Duffy said.The government has been short of air traffic controllers for years, and multiple presidential administrations have tried to persuade retirement-age controllers to remain on the job. Duffy said the shutdown has exacerbated the problem, leading some air traffic controllers to speed up their retirements.While 4% may sound modest, much of that reduction is happening at 40 of the nation’s busiest and most congested airports. The FAA says the flight reduction is necessary to keep travelers safe as many of the remaining controllers have been putting in long hours and mandatory overtime while the government remains unfunded. If not addressed soon, the situation could get even worse as the U.S. heads into the busy holiday travel season. Duffy said that air travel may “be reduced to a trickle” by the week of Thanksgiving.

Donald Trump signals support for Senate deal to end government shutdown - President Trump on Monday signaled his support for a Senate agreement to end the government shutdown and said he would abide by the deal, which includes a reversal of mass layoffs. “It depends what deal we’re talking about,” Trump said when asked in the Oval Office if he supported the Senate deal, which advanced on Sunday. “But if it’s the deal I heard about … I would say so,” Trump continued. “I think based on everything I’m hearing they haven’t changed anything, and we have support from enough Democrats, and we’re going to be opening up our country. It’s too bad it was closed, but we’re going to be opening up our country very quickly.” Asked specifically if he would agree to the provision that reverses the widespread federal layoffs his administration carried out early on in the shutdown, Trump said he would. “I will be. I’ll abide by the deal. The deal is very good,” Trump said. The Senate voted late Sunday 60-40 to proceed to a House-passed continuing resolution to reopen the government, with eight Democrats joining with Republicans to break an impasse that had dragged on for 40 days. The Senate is expected to give the deal its full approval on Monday, with the House slated to vote on its passage later this week. The agreement funds the government to Jan. 30 at current levels, and it reinstates federal workers who were laid off during the shutdown and provides protections against future layoffs. The deal does not include any extension of the Affordable Care Act subsidies that are set to expire at the end of the year and were the central demand Democrats had made in calling for reopening the government.

Shutdown deal lets senators sue for $500,000 over data seizures like those in Jan. 6 probe - — A provision of the legislative package that would end the government shutdown allows senators to bring lawsuits if federal law enforcement seizes or subpoenas their data without notifying them, with potential damages of $500,000 for each violation.The language appears to allow GOP senators to sue over steps that the Justice Department took during special counsel Jack Smith's investigation into President Trump related to the 2020 election. In October, Senate Republicans revealed an FBI document that showed investigators had obtained phone record data from eight senators and one congressman for calls they made in the days before and after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol. The records were obtained pursuant to a subpoena in 2023, and the new legislation covers alleged violations dating back to 2022.The revelation that their call records were obtained infuriated the lawmakers, who accused the Biden administration of weaponizing the Justice Department to target Republicans."The FBI's actions were an unconstitutional breach, and Attorney General Bondi and Director Patel need to hold accountable those involved in this serious wrongdoing," said GOP Sen. Chuck Grassley of Iowa, the chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee. He said the Biden administration's actions were "arguably worse than Watergate." A spokesperson for Grassley did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the new legislation.The document said the FBI collected "limited toll records," which include information about which numbers participated in a call and how long it lasted, but not the contents of the conversation themselves. In a letter to lawmakers on Oct. 21, attorneys for Smith defended his investigative steps as "entirely lawful, proper and consistent with established Department of Justice policy." According to the indictment of President Trump in connection with the 2020 election, part of Smith's investigation into the Jan. 6 attack focused on Mr. Trump's alleged attempts to call senators and representatives to pressure them into delaying certification of President Biden's Electoral College victory. Smith's lawyers have said he is eager to testify publicly about the two Trump probes he oversaw. The language in the new legislation requires service providers to alert Senate offices and the Senate sergeant at arms if federal law enforcement requests senators' data, and says a court cannot delay the notification unless the senator is the target of a criminal investigation.

Live updates: Bill to end government shutdown passes Senate, heads to House - The Senate on Monday passed the bill to end the government shutdown, sending it to the House. Final passage came after a series of procedural votes. Those, in turn, followed a weekend breakthrough that saw eight centrist and retiring Democrats join Republicans on Sunday night in approving a plan to reopen the government. The deal would fund most of the government through the end of January and includes three full-year funding bills. It also includes a promise from Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) to hold a vote on ObamaCare subsidies before the year ends. The compromise — reached over a weekend that included a legal battle over funding food assistance and increasing airport turmoil with Federal Aviation Administration flight cuts — includes language to retain more than 4,000 federal workers targeted for layoffs during the shutdown as well as language to prevent the Trump administration from laying off more federal workers until Jan. 30, 2026. Speaking at the White House earlier Monday, President Trumpindicated he would back the Senate deal. The Senate voted Monday evening to end the 41-day government shutdown, setting the stage for the House to reconvene later this week to pick up the legislation and send it to President Trump’s desk.The Senate voted 60-40 to pass a bill to fund military construction, veterans’ affairs, the Department of Agriculture and the legislative branch through Sept. 30, 2026, and the rest of government through Jan. 30. Eight members of the Democratic caucus voted for the deal, breaking with Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and causing a huge rift within the party. The Democrats voting yes were Sens. Jeanne Shaheen (N.H.), Maggie Hassan (N.H.), John Fetterman (Pa.), Catherine Cortez Masto (Nev.), Jacky Rosen (Nev.), Tim Kaine (Va.) and Democratic Whip Dick Durbin (Ill.). Sen. Angus King (Maine), an independent who caucuses with Democrats, also voted for the measure.

Speaker Johnson says House will return to Washington for vote on shutdown deal — Speaker Mike Johnson said Monday that House lawmakers should start returning to Washington “right now” after a small group of Senate Democrats broke a 40-day stalemate late Sunday evening and voted with Republicans to move forward with legislation that would end the government shutdown. It is unclear when the Senate will hold final votes on the legislation. But Johnson said the “nightmare is finally coming to an end” after the Senate voted 60-40 to consider a compromise bill to fund the government. “We have to do this as quickly as possible,” Johnson said at a news conference. He has kept the House out of session since mid-September, when the House passed a bill to continue government funding. After weeks of negotiations, the moderate Senate Democrats agreed to reopen the government without a guaranteed extension of health care subsidies, angering many in their caucus who have demanded that Republicans negotiate with them on the Affordable Care Act tax credits that expire Jan. 1. Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., promised a mid-December vote on the subsidies, but there was no guarantee of success. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer of New York voted against moving ahead with the package, along with all but eight of his Democratic colleagues. “We will not give up the fight,” Schumer said, adding that Democrats have now “sounded the alarm” on health care. An end to the shutdown could still be days away if any senators object and drag out the process. Thune was still working out concerns within his Republican conference about individual provisions in the underlying spending bills.

House on standby as Democrats fume over shutdown deal - The federal government is inching closer toward reopening this week after seven weeks of impasse. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) instructed House lawmakers to make their way back to Washington — for the first time since Sept. 19 (!) — for votes to reopen the government. House lawmakers will be given 36-hour notice for votes, down from the 48-hour notice they had been told for the entirety of the shutdown. Senators are back in session today with several votes left to reopen the government after eight moderate Democratic senators agreed to a deal with Republicans late Sunday. Tomorrow is Veterans Day, so they are hoping to wrap up work by then. The Senate voted 60-40 to advance a bill to fund the government through Jan. 3, plus three funding bills through September 2026 that include the Department of Agriculture. It would also reverse the firings of federal workers during the shutdown. As far as the expiring ObamaCare subsidies that Democrats have pushed to extend, Republicans agreed to hold a separate vote on those by mid-December. Who are the Democrats who voted to end the shutdown?: Sens. John Fetterman (Pa.), Catherine Cortez Masto (Nev.), Jacky Rosen (Nev.), Dick Durbin (Ill.), Jeanne Shaheen (N.H.), Maggie Hassan (N.H.) and Tim Kaine (Va.), plus Sen. Angus King (Maine), an independent who caucuses with the Democrats. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.) both oppose the deal. House Democrats are largely expected to reject the bill, while Republicans are still relying on a narrow majority. A group of Senate Democrats has been negotiating with Republicans for weeks on a deal to reopen the government, but the lack of an extension on Affordable Care Act subsidies in the deal is striking a nerve. Democrats had several days of momentum after winning soundly in last week’s elections, with this emboldening their resistance to a House-passed stopgap bill. But then eight Senate Democrats folded. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) called Sunday’s procedural push for the funding bill “a very bad night” with a “very, very bad vote.” Schumer, in particular, is already getting blowback. Progressive Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) called on Senate Democrats to replace Schumer. And progressive Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Wis.) also slammed the Democratic leader.

Democratic lawmaker: Schumer ‘should be replaced’ - Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) is calling on Senate Democrats to replace Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) as leader after eight members of the Senate Democratic caucus voted Sunday to begin the process of reopening the federal government. Khanna, a progressive Democrat who represents Silicon Valley, argued on social media that if Schumer can’t keep his caucus unified against a government funding bill that doesn’t extend enhanced health insurance subsidies, then he shouldn’t lead Senate Democrats. “Senator Schumer is no longer effective and should be replaced. If you can’t lead the fight to stop healthcare premiums from skyrocketing for Americans, what will you fight for?” Khanna wrote on X. Progressive Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Wis.) also took a shot at Schumer, noting the Democratic leader did not endorse the party’s nominee for mayor in New York, Zohran Mamdani, a self-described democratic socialist, nor did he disclose for whom he cast his ballot. “Don’t endorse or say who you voted for in NYC despite there being a Dem candidate. Get Dem Senators to negotiate a terrible “deal” that does nothing real about healthcare. Screw over a national political party. Profile of scourge? Next,” Pocan posted on X. Schumer and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) have led the messaging effort for Democrats during the shutdown, repeatedly warning that Democrats had to take a stand against a clean continuing resolution passed by the House because it didn’t extend the insurance subsidies under the Affordable Care Act. Those arguments were persuasive for the vast majority of Democratic senators for most of the 41-day government shutdown, but Sunday, five more Democrats joined three of their colleagues from the caucus in voting for a House-passed bill to reopen federal departments and agencies.

Ocasio-Cortez on shutdown deal: 'This problem is much bigger than Leader Schumer' -- Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) on Wednesday called out Senate Democrats as a whole after eight lawmakerssided with Republicans on a deal to reopen the government. Ocasio-Cortez told reporters that blame for the situation extends beyond Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), who met a heap of criticism from other Democrats over the deal’s passage.“There’s a lot of focus rightfully on Leader Schumer, but I do think that when it comes to the Senate, it is Senate Democrats that select their leadership,” Ocasio-Corteztold Politico. “And so I actually think this problem is much bigger than Leader Schumer.”She added that the Senate failed “to develop, to deliver on health care subsidies.”The New York lawmaker told CNN’s Manu Raju that it wasn’t just one vote that led to the deal, but a “coordinated effort of eight senators, with the knowledge of Leader Schumer, voting to break with the entire Democratic Party in exchange for nothing.”“And now people’s health care costs are going to be skyrocketing, and we want to make sure that we have a path to ending this moment and finding relief for them right now,” Ocasio-Cortez continued. “But I think that when we talk about this debate about the Democratic Party, it is indeed about the party writ large and our ability to fight or not.” Progressives are furious after a group of Senate Democratic centrists broke after 41 days to strike a deal with Republicans on a spending package with some concessions on federal layoffs, but no commitment on extending expiring Affordable Care Act (ACA) health care subsidies.

Liberal fury over Senate government shutdown deal convulses Democrats -- Tensions in the Democratic Party are boiling over this week after a group of mostly moderate Democratic senators joined Republicans to advance a bill to reopen the government. The Democrats’ support for the spending bill all but ensures that the history-making shutdown will soon end, but it came without Republicans giving any ground on the Democrats’ central demand for an extension of ObamaCare subsidies. The stunning development Sunday night has infuriated liberals in and out of Congress, who had cheered Democrats throughout the weeks-long shutdown and urged them to keep up the fight for the sake of preventing health care costs from skyrocketing at the beginning of next year. After a small group of Democrats defied those calls, providing the votes needed to surpass their own party’s filibuster, liberals fumed that the centrists gave away the store without anything in return. The frustrations were only fueled by the results of last week’s off-year elections, which gave Democrats resounding victories across the country — and suggested voters wanted them to continue fighting for the health care subsidies. “What Senate Dems who voted for this horses‑‑‑ deal did was f‑‑‑ over all the hard work people put in to Tuesday’s elections,” Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Wis.), a former head of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, posted on social platform X. “Healthcare matters. Not platitudes.” The criticisms also came from liberal activist groups, which have accused Democrats of not fighting hard enough against President Trump since his return to the White House this year. “We cannot afford a divided and weak opposition party when an authoritarian is invading our cities, terrorizing our communities, and corruptly self-enriching at the expense of the rest of us,” Ezra Levin, co-founder and co-executive director of Indivisible, said in a statement after the deal was announced. “We hope to celebrate the Democratic Party for fighting back. But if they surrender, the next step is primaries and new leadership. “We get the party we demand, and we intend to demand one that fights.” Usamah Andrabi, a spokesperson for Justice Democrats, said the move by the Senate Democrats was “an absolute failure — voters expected their leaders to hold the line for their basic health care needs and instead, a handful of corporate Democrats surrendered to the GOP to let them raise premiums for millions of people.” “This is exactly why we need Democratic primaries nationwide to build an opposition party that actually fights for working people, not selling the American people out when they get too tired to work for them,” he added. The Democratic discord has its roots in an earlier spending fight, in March, when Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) bucked a vast majority of his party to support a Republican budget bill crafted without Democratic input. The move infuriated liberals, some of whom suggested Schumer lacked the mettle to remain atop the party. Even House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) refused, at the time, to throw him a lifeline. This time around, Schumer reversed course and, along with Jeffries, became a leading voice of the Democratic opposition to the Republicans’ short-term spending bill. In countless public appearances, the pair cited the urgency of addressing the expiring health care subsidies before millions of Americans get hit by higher costs next year. Yet even that hasn’t quelled the lingering distrust between the left and Senate Democrats. Schumer might not have supported the new budget deal, the critics say, but as party leader he bears responsibility for letting the rank-and-file senators give away the Democrats’ only leverage in the fight for the ObamaCare subsidies. “Senator Schumer is no longer effective and should be replaced,” Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) wrote on X. “If you can’t lead the fight to stop healthcare premiums from skyrocketing for Americans, what will you fight for?”

Stefany Shaheen blasts shutdown deal backed by her mother -- Stefany Shaheen, a Democratic candidate for Congress from New Hampshire, said she “cannot support” a deal to end the government shutdown on which the Senate is voting Monday evening. Complicating things is the fact that her mother, Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (N.H.), supports the proposal.The younger Shaheen, in a Monday post on the social platform X, said she would only support a deal to end the record-breaking shutdown if it includes an extension of subsidies offered under the Affordable Care Act (ACA). The measure, which the elder Shaheen, seven other Democratic conference members and 52 Republicans voted to advance on Sunday, does not include such a provision.“We need to both end this shutdown and extend the ACA tax credits,” Stefany Shaheen said. “Otherwise, no deal. It’s essential to ensure people have access to health care and it’s past time to put paychecks back into people’s pockets and food back on families’ tables.”Stefany Shaheen’s eldest daughter, Elle, nearly lost her life after being diagnosed with Type 1 diabetes at the age of eight, according to her campaign website. Since then, she has advocated for medical research and treatments and raised awareness of chronic disease prevention. The proposal to reopen the government would fund military construction, veterans’ affairs, the Department of Agriculture and the legislative branch through September 2026 and the rest of government through Jan. 30. It also would retain more than 4,000 federal workers the Trump administration targeted for layoffs during the shutdown and would prevent the administration from firing additional federal employees until Jan. 30.The ACA subsidies expire at the end of December, with health insurance premiums set to increase significantly if they are not extended. Jeanne Shaheen, who previously introduced legislation to permanently extend the credits, told CNN’s Kate Bolduan on Monday that reopening the government is an “opportunity” to negotiate with Republicans on extending the credits. “Because of this shutdown fight, we’ve had a number of Republicans who have figured out that this is an issue for them,” she said. “This is not a red state issue or a blue state issue; this is about making sure that people can afford their health insurance.”

Feds flustered by shutdown compromise - Some federal energy and environmental workers are outraged Monday as Congress moved toward ending the federal shutdown without an agreement on the key sticking point that shuttered the government in the first place. A compromise approved by the Senate on Sunday night with eight Democrats’ support marked a breakthrough in negotiations that could soon end the longest shutdown in U.S. history. House Speaker Mike Johnson on Monday urged House lawmakers to head back to Washington “right now” in anticipation of a vote, although Democrats in the House and Senate are fuming over the compromise. The Senate’s bipartisan deal would ensure that furloughed federal workers get back pay, force the government to rehire employees laid off during the shutdown and temporarily block the Trump administration from laying off government employees through the end of the continuing resolution — Jan. 30. Advertisement But after enduring the uncertainty of a government shutdown that hit the 40-day mark Sunday, some government employees wanted more out of the negotiations. The agreement doesn’t include a deal on expiring health care subsidies, a key sticking point for Democrats. The deal includes the promise of a separate Senate floor vote on that issue. “My people are generally aghast at what has happened,” said Nicole Cantello, a union leader who represents employees in EPA’s Chicago regional office. If federal workers and the American people “were going to suffer during the shutdown, they wanted to see more that was gotten for it than what’s currently on the table,” Cantello said. As many federal workers and Democrats expressed disappointment and frustration in the wake of the funding deal, the head of the largest federal workers union welcomed the agreement. “AFGE is grateful to the Senators who fought to ensure that federal employees’ job security is not hanging in the balance while they determine spending levels,” Everett Kelley, president of the American Federation of Government Employees, said Monday. “We strongly urge the House of Representatives to pass this continuing resolution and for President Trump to sign it immediately.” Some current and former federal employees see the compromise as surrender. Government workers, granted anonymity because they fear retaliation, stressed that layoffs initiated during the funding lapse had already been blocked in court and that retroactive pay for furloughed workers was already guaranteed by the law. The deal was “a total capitulation and slap in the face to federal workers,” said one EPA employee. “These Democrats sold us out.” A second EPA staffer said Democratic senators were caving and risking Americans’ finances and health in the process. “They said we were going to fight, and now they are curling into a ball to accept an empty promise in exchange,” said the staffer. “I don’t think they got enough,” said a third EPA employee. “They got nothing, effectively, and they shut down the government for over a month to get that nothing.” Unlike their national affiliate, AFGE Council 238, EPA’s largest union, urged lawmakers to hold the line on health care subsidies for any deal that would end the shutdown. “The U.S. government must be fully funded immediately, and that has to include funding for healthcare,” said Justin Chen, president of the union that represents more than 8,000 EPA employees, in a statement last week. Jacob Malcolm, a former career Interior Department employee who resigned earlier this year, called the new developments “quite frustrating news” for current and former staff. “On the one hand, yes, I’m glad my former colleagues who are still at Interior are going to be able to get back to the work to which they are dedicated and be paid for doing it,” Malcolm said Monday. “On the other hand, this capitulation will only encourage Republicans to continue to take federal civil servants — at Interior and beyond — hostage.” One Interior employee said Monday that they’re “breathing a sigh of relief” that back pay would be guaranteed by the deal. “But soooo fed up with the Dems,” that person said. “What was this all for?”

Shutdown deal puts RIF sword back into scabbard, for now - The bill that now appears poised to reopen the federal government is a stay of execution for the Interior Department employees whose jobs have been on the Trump administration’s chopping block. Tucked into the funding package crafted by a bipartisan group of senators, legislative language states that “no federal funds may be used to initiate, carry out, implement, or otherwise notice a reduction in force to reduce the number of employees within any department, agency, or office of the Federal Government.”The 31-page continuing resolution‘s freeze on RIF action lasts only until Jan. 30. Interior did not immediately respond to a request for comment Monday afternoon, but department-watchers are gloomily speculating. “My guess is that Interior would move forward with RIFs later, as they’ve said that their plans had nothing to do with the shutdown,” Desiree Sorenson-Groves, president and CEO of the National Wildlife Refuge Association, said Monday. “We had been hearing for months that a RIF would come, so … it’s hard to imagine they would walk that back.”Jacob Malcom, who formerly headed Interior’s Office of Policy Analysis and now leads an effort called Next Interior, likewise said Monday that he “would not be surprised if they interpret the language in the bill to mean that planning can continue then move on Feb. 1 to initiate the RIF notifications.” Last week, the Interior Department advised a federal judge in San Francisco that it was freezing any plans to “imminently” lay off employees for the duration of the federal government shutdown.“Any final decision to take action and issue RIF notices has not yet occurred and, in fact, is presently on hold, given the lapse in appropriations,” Rachel Borra, Interior’s chief human capital officer, stated in a Tuesday court filing, adding that “any decision to restart the RIF process is subject to further review and discussion by agency leadership.”In an earlier court filing, Borra had indicated that Interior planned to cut more than 2,000 jobs from the department, across agencies like the Bureau of Reclamation and the U.S. Geological Survey. The former, for instance, was slated to lose two staffers from the Hoover Dam Field Office, among many other cuts, while the latter was identified as losing 39 workers from its Fort Collins Science Center in Colorado.Exactly how many people would be laid off under Interior’s plan is not clear, as the department only provided specifics for layoffs in areas with some union representation.In other court filings, nine federal agencies previously informed a federal judge that about 3,900 employees had received at least preliminary RIF notices during the federal government shutdown. The continuing resolution would require that any laid-off employees be reinstated.Appeals court upholds order requiring full SNAP payments --A federal appeals court late Sunday rejectedthe Trump administration’s bid to halt an order requiring full Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) payments during the government shutdown. The three-judge panel on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 1st Circuit ruled a judge did not abuse his discretion in finding the government’s plan for partial nutrition aid payments would cause unacceptable delays.“It also knew full well that making partial payments would be technically difficult, as it had never been done before,” U.S. Circuit Judge Julie Rikelman wrote for the unanimous panel. “But it proceeded to do nothing to attempt to solve that problem over the following three weeks. It made no calculations, prepared no tables, and took no other logistical steps to prepare for a shortfall,” Rikelman continued. It keeps in place U.S. District Judge John McConnell’s requirement that officials fill the remaining gap for November SNAP payments by transferring roughly $4 billion in child nutrition funds, which the Trump administration argued would unacceptably put those programs at risk. The payments remain on temporary hold under a Friday night ruling from Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, but the appeals court’s decision begins a 48-hour clock for Jackson’s hold to expire. It also comes as lawmakers on Capitol Hill move closer to reopening the government. Just before the appeals ruling, the Senate advanced a vehicle to end the 41-day shutdown after a group of Democrats joined Republicans to provide the necessary votes. The 1st Circuit panel comprised two appointees of formerPresident Biden — Rikelman and U.S. Circuit Judge Gustavo Gelpí — and U.S. Circuit Judge David Barron, an appointee of former President Obama. The Trump administration appealed after McConnell, another Obama appointee, ruled the administration was acting arbitrarily and capriciously by not transferring the child nutrition funds to fully fund SNAP during the shutdown.Earlier, McConnell had ruled the administration needed to, at minimum, deplete a $5 billion SNAP emergency fund. It was not enough to cover November benefits, and McConnell said officials needed to devise a way to recalculate partial payments expeditiously or tap other funding sources to fill the remaining gap. After the government said partial benefits would cause delays, the judge ordered the full payments be sent by last Friday.

Environment takeaways from the spending deal - - For the first time in more than a year, the House and Senate produced compromise spending bills that could lay the groundwork for a broader deal to fully fund the government. The package of three fiscal 2026 bills, which cleared the Senate Monday, contains both Democratic and Republican priorities and rejects most of the steep funding cuts sought by the Trump administration and House GOP lawmakers. The bills are the product of months of negotiations, and neither side got everything it wanted. There are wins for conservatives, such as cuts to Department of Agriculture climate hubs, and wins for Democrats, including full funding for the Government Accountability Office. Passage could set the tone for the rest of the fiscal 2026 spending cycle and create a pathway for more bipartisan spending bills — especially with both sides appearing eager to avoid another costly shutdown.It will be paired with a bill to reopen the government through Jan. 30 and a promise of a Senate vote on a Democratic bill to extend expiring health care subsidies.Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.), chair of both the House Freedom Caucus and the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Agriculture, told Fox News that despite the absence of sweeping cuts, he “would probably be a ‘yes’ vote” on the package assuming that the Senate passes it as is.Senate Appropriations ranking member Patty Murray (D-Wash.) touted the Democratic wins in the spending bills, even as she voted against proceeding to the package because of the lack of guaranteed health care reforms. The three bills in the package, known as a “minibus,” are Agriculture-FDA, Legislative Branch and Military Construction-Veterans Affairs. Here are five takeaways from the bipartisan minibus that could head to President Donald Trump’s desk as soon as Wednesday.

• Climate hub cuts. The negotiated Agriculture-FDA bill would slash funding for the USDA’s 10 climate hubs, which produce regional research and data on extreme weather, natural disasters and droughts to help farmers make informed decisions. The office of Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) announced the cuts, but the scope of the reduction is unclear.. The cuts, endorsed by House Republicans, could hit regional climate hubs in the home states or districts of key members of Congress focused on agricultural issues.One of the 10 hubs, for example, is in New Hampshire, home to Democratic Sens. Jeanne Shaheen and Maggie Hassan — two of the lead negotiators of the deal to end the shutdown. Another one of the USDA climate hubs is located in the district of Rep. Frank Lucas (R-Okla.), a former chair of the House Agriculture Committee. Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.), chair of the Natural Resources Subcommittee on Water Resources and Environment, represents a district with another climate hub.So does Rep. Joe Neguse (D-Colo.), who co-chairs caucuses focused on disaster recovery and wildfire management. The district of Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Iowa) also hosts a climate hub.Appropriations leaders likely kept the House’s proposed climate hub cuts in the compromise Agriculture-FDA bill as a sweetener to help maintain Republican support for the full package. They similarly kept the GOP’s proposed reductions to programs focused on urban agriculture.
• Support for water, conservation. The Agriculture-FDA bill supports a range of federal water and conservation programs.Republicans have previously pushed to reduce some USDA conservation assistance for farmers. The Trump administration proposed cutting conservation funds by hundreds of millions of dollars.The legislation contains about $1.4 billion to support the “revitalization of aging water and wastewater infrastructure,” according to a summary. USDA’s Watershed and Flood Prevention Operations budget would get $50 million under the negotiated proposal. An additional $3 million would be set aside “for the rehabilitation of aging dam infrastructure to ensure safety and water access to rural communities,” the summary states.About $10 million would go toward irrigation modernization to “alleviate challenges faced primarily in Western states.” That could include drought, fish and wildlife projects, and certain renewable energy production efforts, according to the bill report.
• Win for energy resilience. The Military Construction-Veterans Affairs bill would provide $730 million to a Pentagon resilience program that supports investments often targeted by Republican lawmakers.The funds would go to the Energy Resilience Conservation Investment Program, which funnels federal dollars toward projects on military installations that “improve energy resilience, contribute to mission assurance, save energy, and reduce [the Department of Defense’s] energy costs,” according to DOD. The Pentagon’s fiscal 2026 guidance for the program lists microgrids, battery storage and “renewable and/or clean energy generation systems” as possible targets, as well as nuclear and geothermal energy. However, it’s unclear whether the agency will continue to direct the funds toward those priorities. The program guidance references Biden-era executive orders directing emissions reductions across the federal government. Trump repealed those orders when he took office.
• Environmental cleanups. The minibus contains hundreds of millions of dollars for environmental remediation to counteract pollution from harmful “forever chemicals” and a major fuel spill.Negotiators included House-passed language providing $50 million for per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, or PFAS, cleanups above the level the Trump administration requested for fiscal 2026. In all, PFAS remediation efforts would get more than $100 million.Appropriators are also providing $53.7 billion in fiscal 2026 funding for the Toxic Exposures Fund, which supports veterans sickened by exposure to burn pits. That is more than double the amount provided in fiscal 2025, according to a bill summary.
• CR details. The continuing resolution attached to the minibus would fund the rest of the government until the end of January, reopening federal agencies and jumpstarting programs that have been partially shuttered for more than a month.Appropriators included language that would reverse the layoffs the Trump administration implemented during the ongoing shutdown, requiring agencies to rehire affected employees and pay them for the time they would have worked. It would bar the administration from dismissing more workers through the duration of the CR. The stopgap contains extensions for a host of programs that lapsed Sept. 30, including the Defense Production Act and the National Flood Insurance Program. A bipartisan duo in the House introduced a bill,H.R. 5848, that would backdate the authorization for the NFIP to Sept. 30 and extend its authorization through the end of 2026. The CR also has a number of funding provisions requested by the White House to ensure certain federal programs do not lapse or run out of funds for the duration of the funding patch.

USDA orders states to stop issuing full SNAP benefits and to ‘undo’ benefits sent for November - The US Department of Agriculture ordered states to stop issuing full food stamp benefits for November and to “immediately undo” any issuance of the full allotments, after a Supreme Court justice on Friday paused a lower court order requiring the agency to pay Americans their full assistance. In the Saturday directive, obtained by CNN, the USDA told states to instead proceed with issuing partial benefits — which will provide 65% of the maximum allotments for November — as ordered by the same lower court judge earlier in the week. (Many recipients will receive less than 65% of their usual assistance because of the way food stamp benefits are calculated.) “To the extent States sent full SNAP payment files for November 2025, this was unauthorized,” Patrick Penn, a top USDA official, wrote in the memo. “Accordingly, States must immediately undo any steps taken to issue full SNAP benefits for November 2025.” States that fail to comply could face a cancellation of federal cost-sharing of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, as well as be financially responsible for over issuances of benefits, the memo said. This latest directive leaves in limbo the roughly 1 in 8 Americans who depend on the nation’s larger anti-hunger program. Over the past week, the USDA has issued guidance multiple times as lawsuits over the agency’s decision not to tap into a contingency fund to pay November benefits have worked their way through federal courts. The latest guidance follows a memorandum from the department on Friday saying it was working to fully fund food stamp benefits for November to comply with a federal lower court order, and that the process should be completed later that day. Several states quickly pounced on the news, saying the money should start flowing to recipients in coming days.Pennsylvania Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro announced Friday that residents who should have already gotten their SNAP benefits this month will start getting their full payments on Friday. The next day, a Shapiro spokesperson told CNN that residents who received their benefits are able to spend them, but the state has paused issuing full allocations to additional people.Maryland Democratic Gov. Wes Moore said Sunday that there’s “no clarity at all” in the guidance and that the administration is causing “intentional chaos.”“Once we decided to step up and say we are going to make sure that our people are going to be OK … we’ve now received guidance saying the states are going to be punished for fronting the money,”7:28 PM

Judge blocks administration from acting to 'undo' issuance of full SNAP benefits - A federal judge said Monday that she will continue to block the Trump administration from enforcing a memo directing states to "undo" the issuance of full SNAP benefits. The administration is currently seeking to "undo" hundreds of millions of dollars in SNAP benefits that went out after the U.S. Department of Agriculture, which operates the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, told states Friday afternoon that it was "working towards implementing November 2025 full benefit issuances" to comply with a court order.During a tense hearing Monday afternoon, U.S. District Judge Indira Talwani rebuked the Trump administration for "trying to play vindictive games" with states that sent benefits to SNAP recipients. "It would seem to me that if the agency is trying to comply with the law and with the executive branch's preferences on policies, a piece of that wouldn't be trying to play vindictive games with the states. That's not part of it," said Talwani, who said she planned to issue a written ruling later Monday. The USDA sent out its initial guidance after U.S. District Judge McConnell on Thursday ordered the Trump administration to fully fund SNAP by Friday -- but on Saturday the USDA told states that they must "immediately undo any steps taken to issue full SNAP benefits for November 2025."Twenty states said they had already begun the process of issuing full November benefits. "What you have right now is confusion of the agency's own making," Judge Talwani said. The Trump administration, meanwhile, asked the Supreme Court Monday to stay the order requiring full payment of November SNAP benefits in order to allow Congress to finalize an end to the ongoing government shutdown without judicial interference. "The irreparable harms of allowing district courts to inject themselves into the shutdown and decide how to triage limited funds are grave enough to warrant a stay," wrote Solicitor General John Sauer. Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, who paused the order late Friday night, is expected to revisit it Tuesday.

Trump administration returns to Supreme Court in fight over frozen SNAP benefits - The Trump administration returned to the Supreme Court on Monday in its fight against full Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) payments during the government shutdown.Solicitor General D. John Sauer confirmed to the justices that the federal government intends to ask the high court to pause orders from lower courts to maintain full SNAP payments, which provide federal food assistance to families in need.His notice comes after a federal appeals court late Sunday rejected the administration’s bid to halt U.S. District Judge John McConnell’s order, which directed the government to fund November SNAP payments by transferring some $4 billion in child nutrition funds.Though those payments remain frozen under a Friday night ruling from Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, the appeals court’s decision starts a 48-hour clock for it to expire. It also comes as Congress moves closer to reopening the government, which Sauer noted in his letter to the court. He flagged for the justices that the Senate on Sunday voted to begin the process for funding the government, which would include full funding for SNAP through the end of the fiscal year. “That proposal, if ultimately adopted by both Houses of Congress and signed by the President, would end the shutdown and moot this application,” Sauer wrote. The solicitor general also noted that a federal judge issued another temporary injunction Monday morning tied to the SNAP payments. U.S. District Judge Indira Talwani temporarily paused a U.S. Department of Agriculture memorandum that said states that sent full SNAP payment files for November must “immediately undo any steps taken to issue” full benefits. The Trump administration first appealed to the Supreme Court after McConnell ruled that the administration needed to provide full SNAP payments for November by last Friday, after finding it was acting arbitrarily and capriciously by not transferring the child nutrition funds to fully fund SNAP during the shutdown. He had previously ruled that the administration needed to deplete a $5 billion SNAP emergency fund, at minimum, to ensure benefits went to families and people with no or limited incomes. Justice Department lawyers argued that such a move would unacceptably put those programs at risk, and Sauer contended it would “sow further shutdown chaos.”

SCOTUS extends stay on SNAP benefits for now, impacting millions -- The Supreme Court on Tuesday agreed to extend its temporary stay of a lower court order that the Trump administration immediately pay the full Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits for the month of November, delivering a near-term win to the administration, just hours after it appealed the matter to the high court for emergency intervention. Trump officials had urged the Supreme Court in a supplemental brief Monday afternoon to keep in place an emergency stay handed down by Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson last week. The new action keeps the stay in place through 11:59 p.m. on Thursday, Nov. 13. U.S. Solicitor General D. John Sauerhad asked the Supreme Court Monday to grant an emergency stay ordering them to resume full SNAP payments before the end of the government shutdown in Congress. At issue was whether the Trump administration must resume full SNAP benefit payments for the month of November, after they lapsed at the start of the month during the government shutdown. States sued last month to keep the benefits in place, arguing that suspending the aid would disproportionately harm some tens of millions of vulnerable and low-income Americans in their states. "Because of USDA’s actions, SNAP benefits will be delayed for the first time since the program’s inception," they said. Lower courts had sided with the states in ordering the SNAP benefits to be paid in full, prompting the Trump administration to appeal the issue to the Supreme Court for emergency intervention. In appealing the case, Trump's legal team had argued that the lower court judges overstepped their powers, and urged the Supreme Court to keep in place an emergency stay handed down late last week by Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson. They cited the progress Congress has made towards resolving the ongoing shutdown, and added that, in their view, "the answer to this crisis is not for federal courts to reallocate resources without lawful authority." "The only way to end this crisis — which the Executive is adamant to end — is for Congress to reopen the government," they added. States, for their part, accused the Trump administration of playing politics with SNAP benefits, or the food aid that provides benefits to roughly one in eight Americans. "Any further stay would prolong that irreparable harm and add to the chaos the government has unleashed, with lasting impacts on the administration of SNAP," they told the Supreme Court in a filing of their own Tuesday morning. "The government has offered no defensible justification for that result," they added. "The administrative stay should be terminated, and no further stay should be granted."

House returns from nearly 2-month absence as government shutdown nears end - CBS News — The House returns Wednesday for the first time since the start of the government shutdown and nearly two months after it last voted, bringing an end to the chamber's longest absence in recent memory. The House has been out of session since Sept. 19, when it passed a Republican measure to fund the government until Nov. 21. But the funding bill stalled in the Senate, where it needed Democratic support for passage. A breakthrough in the seven-week stalemate came this week when several Democratic senators cut a deal with Republicans to end the shutdown.The Senate amended the House-passed bill to include three full-year appropriations bills, while extending the remainder of government funding until Jan. 30. In exchange for their votes, Senate Republicans promised Democrats they would have a vote on tax credits that expire at the end of the year and help millions of Americans afford health insurance through the Affordable Care Act marketplaces. Most Democrats opposed the deal, but the party now appears to be shifting focus to the upcoming fight over health care. Arguing that the House had done its job after the mid-September vote, Johnson canceled weeks of votes and committee hearings were put on hold. Johnson's decision to cancel weeks in session fueled backlash from House Democrats, who have repeatedly called on the GOP leader to swear in Rep.-elect Adelita Grijalva, a Democrat who was elected to her late father's seat in Arizona on Sept. 23. Democrats, and some Republicans, saw Johnson's resistance to immediately swearing her in as an attempt to delay a vote on releasing files related to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Grijalva will be the final signature on a discharge petition, spearheaded by Republican Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Democratic Rep. Ro Khanna of California, that will force a vote on the issue and could embarrass President Trump. Johnson also faced criticism from some Republicans over the House's lengthy absence. Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, one of Johnson's top GOP critics over the decision to keep members away from Washington, told "The Megyn Kelly Show" this week that Republicans' House majority "is being ruined" by "inaction." Noting the September vote, Greene said the House hasn't "been to work since." Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley of California, who stayed in Washington over the shutdown, hadargued that the shutdown could have ended sooner "if we actually had the House of Representatives in town." In order to end the shutdown, Johnson will have to keep his often-divided conference together, which could prove easier with President Trump's backing of the Senate deal. The chamber is set to vote on the final version of the legislation on Wednesday.House Republicans can afford to lose only two votes if all members are present and voting. Two Republicans voted against the original version of the bill when it cleared the House on Sept. 19, though it also had the support of one Democrat. But lawmakers could face travel disruptions on their way back with thousands of flight delays and cancellations around the U.S. as the Federal Aviation Administration limits flights due to staffing issues caused by the shutdown. Johnsonurged House members ahead of final passage in the Senate to begin traveling to Washington "right now." House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, a New York Democrat, said Monday he expects all members of his party will make it back in time for the vote. "I expect that everyone's going to be back, and we'll be at full strength," Jeffries, who could face defections of his own during the vote, told reporters.

House Set To End Historic Shutdown After Democrats Cave -Members of the House of Representatives are back on Capitol Hill today for the first time in 54 days, to vote on legislation that would reopen the federal government by midnight, ending the longest shutdown in U.S. history.Early Wednesday morning, around 1:30 a.m., the House Rules Committee cleared the way for lawmakers to take up a Senate-passed funding package. The plan combines a continuing resolution to keep the government funded through Jan. 30with a three-bill “minibus” package - when we get to do this all over again! (joy of all joys) Of note, the Minibus provisions are good until Sept. 30.

• It will also reinstate federal workers fired during the shutdown and guarantee back pay. It will also prevent further layoffs through the end of January.
• It also excludes an extension of advanced Obamacare premium tax credits - which Democrats caved on at the 11th hour.

The full House vote is expected later this evening, likely around 7 p.m., Punchbowl News reports - after which it will head to Trump's desk for his signature.Republicans on the committee rejected Democratic attempts to amend the bill, including one proposal to extend expiring Affordable Care Act premium subsidies. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is expected to preside over the swearing-in of Rep.-elect Adelita Grijalva (D-AZ) at 4 p.m. before debate begins. Grijalva, elected in September to fill her late father’s seat, has faced an unusually long delay before taking office - a delay that has frustrated Democrats, particularly because her vote is needed to release a new cache of Epstein files.As Rabobank notes:The end of the government shutdown should lead to the (delayed) release of economic data collected by federal agencies. This will end the episode of limited visibility for policy-makers and private sector decision-makers, who had to rely mostly on data provided by the private sector. The Employment Report for September may be one of the first to be published, because it was originally scheduled for October 3, so it was likely almost or completely finished. This will be lagging data, but it could confirm the continued labor market weakness assumed by the FOMC and shown in other labor market data for September. The Employment Report for October may take more time to produce. What’s more, the quality of data collection in October (and early November) may have been compromised, undermining their reliability. This could even have a longer-lasting impact on year-on-year data, through November 2026.

Government shutdown nears possible end as key House panel advances Senate-passed funding bill - The House Rules Committee has greenlit a Senate-passed bill that would reopen the government, bringing it a step closer to a final vote in the House as early as Wednesday afternoon. In an 8-4 party line vote, the panel approved a rule setting the terms of debate for the bill, a key procedural step that allows the legislation to be taken up by the full House. The powerful committee rejected a slew of amendments offered up by Democratic lawmakers, including one aimed at extending expiring health insurance subsidies — a demand for most Democrats. Some House Republicans were sympathetic to a Democratic amendment to remove a provision of the Senate-passed bill that would allow senators to sue for $500,000 if federal law enforcement seizes their data. The amendment was ultimately voted down, though, with GOP lawmakers warning the bill would need to go back to the Senate if the House makes changes, further extending the government shutdown.

Trump signs funding bill to end historic government shutdown - President Trump on Wednesday signed a government funding bill to officially end the longest shutdown in history after 43 days. Trump signed legislation in the Oval Office, where he placed blame for the shutdown on Democrats while surrounded by Republicans lawmakers and other GOP officials. “Today we are sending a clear message that we will never give in to extortion, because that’s what it was,” Trump said. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.), House Republican Conference Chair Lisa McClain (R-Mich.) and other lawmakers joined Trump in the Oval Office. Republican megadonor Ken Griffin and former New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R) , who now leads an airline lobbying group, were also in the room. The Senate voted earlier this week, 60-40, to pass a bill to fund military construction, veterans’ affairs, the Department of Agriculture and the legislative branch through Sept. 30, and the rest of government through Jan. 30. Eight Democrats joined with 52 Republicans to meet the 60-vote threshold and send the bill to the House. The House passed the bill on Wednesday in its first chamber-wide vote in nearly two months. The vote in the lower chamber was 222-209, with six Democrats joining all but two Republicans to support the measure. The bill reverses widespread layoffs of federal employees the White House sought to carry out during the shutdown, and it includes protections to prevent future layoffs until early next year, at the earliest.

End of government shutdown won’t stop SNAP mayhem -As the government reopens, efforts to return the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) to full funding across the country will face its own challenges.SNAP benefits have been put through the ringer since expiring at the start of November, with back-to-back court rulings going all the way up to the Supreme Court alternately reinstating and then blocking full issuance of benefits. Most recently, the Supreme Court allowed SNAP benefits to be paused, extending this until Thursday, with Justice Ketanji Brown Jacksonpublicly dissenting.Before benefits expired, states’ preemptive actions varied, meaning full SNAP payments could take another week or more to reach people in some places. Several states maintained full SNAP benefits by using emergency funds. Others offered partial benefits or directed funds to local food banks. “States are, pun intended, literally all over the map with respect to how they are proceeding with respect to issuance of November SNAP benefits,” said Stewart Fried, principal attorney at OFW Law in Washington, D.C. “Based on my review of state issuances, approximately 19 states have issued or are in the process of issuing full November benefits, and about 18 states have already issued partial benefits or they are still in the process of calculating them based on USDA guidance issued last week.”

SNAP benefits to be fully restored by Monday: Rollins +Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins on Thursday said Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits will be restored in full by Monday. “We, immediately last night, began moving out, making sure that the program continues unabated, starting once the government reopened, and hopefully by the end of this week, most will receive it at the very latest on Monday,” Rollins said during an appearance on CNN. “But keep in mind, the SNAP program is funded by the federal government, but it is the 50 states and 50 different infrastructures that move that money out, which is what made it so complicated, the patchwork,” she added. However, she told viewers and anchor Pamela Brown that “good news is on the way” for those who depend on food stamps after Congress voted to end the federal shutdown. SNAP payments for citizens were threatened as the Trump administration warned against using contingency funds to fuel the benefit program for states, despite protests from Democratic lawmakers. The Supreme Court ultimately weighed in by reinstating and then blocking full issuance of benefits for the month of November. Families and food banks across the country were preparing to grapple with the loss of crucial support as members of Congress remained at an impasse. Amid progress in the Capitol, the Agriculture Department said full benefits are required to be dispersed for November in its latest guidance to states. “State agencies must take immediate steps to ensure households receive their full November allotments promptly. The reduction in maximum allotments for November is no longer in effect. State agencies should immediately resume issuing combined allotments for November and December for newly certified applicants who apply after the 15th of the month,” USDA wrote. Rollins says she blames Democrats for the holdup. “Fifteen different times the Democrats voted not to fund snap, 15, and this effort to put the blame on President Trump or on [the U.S. Department of Agriculture] is, from my perspective, comical,” Rollins told Brown. “It is irrational. It is unreasonable. Again, it was a clean resolution,” she added.

Democrats introduce discharge petition to force vote on extension of ObamaCare subsidies - House Democratic leaders introduced a discharge petition Wednesday designed to force consideration of legislation to extend expiring ObamaCare subsidies for another three years. Behind House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), the Democrats are hoping to entice a handful of moderate Republicans to endorse the petition, which will require 218 signatures to force a floor vote on the legislation over the objections of Republican leaders. The battle over the enhanced Affordable Care Act (ACA) tax credits has consumed Capitol Hill throughout the history-making federal shutdown, as Democrats had demanded action on the subsidies as a condition of reopening the government.Republicans, who have sought to repeal ObamaCare for years, rejected that demand. And they won the long standoff over the weekend when a small group of Senate Democrats cut a bipartisan deal to reopen the government without any GOP concessions on the health care subsidies.As part of that deal, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) has guaranteed the Democrats a vote on the ACA tax credits in December. But Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has declined to make a similar commitment. The House discharge petition is designed to go around Johnson and force the bill to the floor — if it can get a majority of House lawmakers to sign on. While ObamaCare has been a partisan issue for years, some Republicans are already clamoring for an extension of the subsidies, urging GOP leaders to address the issue before the premium hikes go into effect on Jan. 1 — ahead of the midterm elections. Legislation sponsored by Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Va.) would extend the tax credits for one year. It has the support of 14 other centrist Republicans, many of them facing tough reelection contests next year.

You can end a shutdown overnight — but you can’t reopen a government that fast (AP) — The longest government shutdown in U.S. history is over — on paper, at least. But the American public isn't done with it yet: Getting everything back up and running doesn't happen all at once.The disruption of the closure, clocking in at 43 days, varied in its impact. Some people, like unpaid federal workers, were immediately and directly affected. Others included recipients of federal funding through programs like Head Start and food aid through the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. As the shutdown progressed, effects rippled. Delays and flight cancellations started racking up for passengers as the Federal Aviation Administration ordered airlines to cut back on flights because of air traffic controller shortages. There were closures at Smithsonian museum sites and the National Zoo (although the animals still got fed). About 1.25 million federal workers haven’t been paid since Oct. 1, missing about $16 billion in wages, according to official estimates. The workers were either furloughed or worked without pay in agencies across the federal government. Many struggled to make ends meet during that time, and the regional economy around Washington, D.C., took a hit.The Office of Personnel Management, which manages the civil service, posted on X that federal workers were expected to be back Thursday, saying that “employees are expected to begin the workday on time. Normal operating procedures are in effect.” The pay owed to the workers will come in by Nov. 19. The money will go out in four separate tranches, depending on the agency, according to a senior administration official. : The shutdown coincided with the arrival of colder temperatures, and funding for the $4.1 billion Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program was halted, prompting some states to delay payments for heating bills. A U.S. Department of Health and Human Services spokesperson said Thursday that an agency within HHS will “work swiftly to administer annual awards,” but no timeline was given. Mark Wolfe, executive director of the National Energy Assistance Directors Association, said it could take until mid-December or longer. Wolfe said recipients should still submit applications and tell utility companies they’re waiting for the funds. It’s trickier for people who rely on oil and propane because typically there are no protections. Recipients should check with their state; Vermont backfilled funding and Connecticut has pledged to cover the cost. The shutdown caused significant disruptions in aviation, with more and more unpaid air traffic controllers missing work as they dealt with the financial pressures and some of them picked up side jobs. Those staff shortages, combined with some troubling safety data, prompted the government to order airlines to cut some of their flights over the past week to relieve pressure on the system. Those cuts aren’t increasing right now, but the Federal Aviation Administration won’t lift the order until safety metrics improve. Airlines say they expect to resume normal operations quickly after that. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy has said that controllers and other FAA employees should receive 70% of their back pay within 24-48 hours of the end of the shutdown, with the rest to come. Among the most high-profile impacts of the shutdown was on the SNAP program, which serves around 42 million people — about 1 in 8 Americans — in lower-income households. A series of court rulings and shifting policies from the Trump administration led to a patchwork distribution of November benefits. While some states had already issued full benefits, about two-thirds of states had issued only partial benefits or none at all.On Thursday, state officials said they were working quickly to get full benefits to the millions of people who missed their regular monthly payments. Some states said SNAP recipients should receive their full monthly benefits starting Thursday or Friday, though it could take up to a week.When it comes to Head Start, the shutdown had held up the distribution of federal grant payments. Some affected centers remained open by furloughing portions of their staff or tapping into emergency reserves. Others were forced to close, shutting down child care for thousands of families. Head Start serves children from birth to age 5 who come from families that qualify for federal low-income guidelines, are homeless or receive public assistance. The program provides preschool education as well as developmental screenings and free meals.The Office of Head Start will expedite funding and directly contact the impacted programs to share a timeline of when they can expect federal money, said Emily Hilliard, a spokesperson for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. The office is already operating at a reduced capacity after experiencing substantial layoffs earlier this year. But even when programs receive their money, program leaders worry of staffing shortages if too many furloughed employees already found other jobs. Some advocates said it could take several weeks for some of the programs across the country to receive funding and restore operations.

Data Fog Engulfing October due to Government Shutdown May “Never” Be Fully Lifted by Wolf Richter -- The jobs report, normally released on the first Friday of the month, is based on data from two big surveys: a survey of employers, which produces nonfarm payroll changes and wage changes; and a survey of households, which produces the unemployment rates, labor force data, participation rates, the number of unemployed, etc. The first, the Establishment Survey, is based largely on electronic submissions by employers, and those continued during the shutdown, which started on October 1. But the second, the Household Survey, is based on surveys sent to households, and as the government shut down on October 1, the survey in October was not conducted, and the data doesn’t exist; and it would be difficult to conduct a survey retroactively for October. So the jobs report for October, which was originally scheduled for Friday November 7, will, when it is finally released, contain only the data from the establishment survey, and so it will have the number of jobs created/lost and wage increases; but the household survey data will not be available, and the data may never be available, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett told reporters today. Non-farm payrolls for October “will be able to be calculated but the household survey wasn’t completed, so we’ll get sort of half of the jobs report,” he told reporters. “Most everything else” can likely get worked out, “but we’ll never know what the unemployment rate was in October,” he said. The November jobs report should be back on track. The September jobs report, originally scheduled to be released on October 3, was not released because the government shut down on October 1, preventing the BLS from completing the report. But the data was collected before the shutdown and is all there. Hasset said today that the September report is essentially completed “and we might get that next week.” The BLS has not yet published an updated release schedule. Yesterday, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters that the jobs report and the Consumer Price Index for October would “likely never” be released. “All of that economic data [from the shutdown period] released will be permanently impaired, leaving our policymakers at the Fed flying blind at a critical period,” she said. The shutdown “made it extraordinarily difficult for economists, investors, and policymakers at the Federal Reserve to receive critical government data,” she said. Hasset’s comments today provided a clarification of what Leavitt had said, that part of the jobs report would be released – the nonfarm jobs – but that the unemployment rate and related metrics for October would never be known. The October CPI report may also be permanently lost because a big part of the data wasn’t collected in October. The September CPI report was cobbled together the best it could be during the shutdown by hastily recalled BLS staff, but was marred by a huge outlier in the biggest component, Owner’s Equivalent of Rent (OER), which accounts for 26% of overall CPI, 33% of core CPI, and 44% of core services CPI. Something went wrong, and given its huge weight, OER significantly pushed down the month-to-month readings of overall CPI, core CPI, and core services CPI, which I discussed here. The six-week shutdown also did some damage to the economy, not just the data. It delayed projects and investments, cut off salaries, threw people out of work temporarily, delayed SNAP benefits, disrupted air travel, etc. How much damage it did will take some months to sort out. Estimates are all over the place how it would impact Q4 GDP – we haven’t even seen Q3 GDP yet, thanks to the shutdown – but typically, as payments begin to flow again and projects and investments come off hold, and disruptions vanish, the economy bounces back with some catch-up effects in the following quarters.

Russia Says It Hasn't Received Clarification from US on Trump's Nuclear Testing Comments - Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Saturday that Moscow still hasn’t received clarification from the US on President Trump’s order for the US military to begin testing nuclear weapons.“So far, Moscow has not received any explanations on what President Trump meant when he announced the resumption of nuclear tests,” Lavrov said, according to Russia’s TASS news agency.It was unclear from Trump’s order, which he delivered in a post on Truth Social, if he meant testing nuclear-capable weapons or restarting tests that involved detonating nuclear warheads, something the US, Russia, and every other nuclear-armed power except for North Korea hasn’t done since the 1990s.US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said a few days after Trump’s post that nuclear explosions werenot on the table, at least for now, but this has not been conveyed to Moscow, based on comments from Russian officials.“It is unclear whether it was a question of testing nuclear weapons carriers, of conducting so-called subcritical tests. Or maybe Donald Trump really talked about Washington’s intention to resume full-scale nuclear tests,” Lavrov said.Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov also said on Sunday that Russia needs “clarification” on what Trump meant. In response to Trump’s comments, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his top officials to submit proposals on the possibility of resuming “full-scale” nuclear weapons tests.“As for the instruction of President Vladimir Putin at the meeting of the Security Council on November 5, it was accepted for execution and is in the works. The public will be informed about the results,” Lavrov said in reference to Putin’s order.

Lavrov Says US Consent Is the Only Thing Needed To Extend New START Treaty for One Year - Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Tuesday that negotiations were not necessary for the US and Russia to extend the New START treaty, the last remaining nuclear arms control treaty between the two powers. New START limits the number of nuclear warheads and delivery systems the US and Russia can deploy and is due to expire in February 2026. Russian President Vladimir Putin has offered to extend the treaty for one year to make room for diplomacy to negotiate a replacement, a proposal President Trump has said was a “good idea,” but so far, there’s no sign the US has formally accepted the offer. Lavrov said that all that’s needed to extend the treaty is the US’s consent. “We have repeatedly said that our proposal is a unilateral goodwill gesture. No consultations are necessary for the US to support our approach. They just need to say: ‘OK, we will not raise the quantitative levels of the New START within a year,'” the Russian foreign minister said, according to Russia’s TASS news agency.The comments about New START come amid heightened nuclear tensions between the US and Russia following President Trump’s public order for the US Department of War to carry out nuclear weapons tests. Lavrov said that Russia still hasn’t received any “clarification” from the US regarding the potential tests.It was unclear from Trump’s order, which came in the form of a post on Truth Social, if he meant the resumption of tests that involve detonating nuclear warheads, which the US, Russia, and every other nuclear-armed state except for North Korea haven’t done since the 1990s.US Energy Secretary Chris Wright later said that nuclear explosions weren’t on the table, at least for the time being, but the Trump administration hasn’t conveyed that to Moscow. In response to Trump’s post, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his top officials to submit proposals on the possibility of resuming full-scale nuclear weapons tests. Lavrov said on Tuesday that if the US or any other country conducts such a test, Russia will “do the same.”

Nordic and Baltic States Pledge $500 Million To Purchase US Weapons for Ukraine - A group of eight Baltic and Nordic NATO states announced on Thursdaythat they were pooling together funds to pledge $500 million to the NATO scheme that funds US arms shipments to Ukraine, known as the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List, or PURL initiative.According to numbers released by Ukraine earlier this month, the new package funded by Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, and Sweden brings the total in PURL funds pledged by NATO countries to about $3.3 billion. The initiative first began over the summer following a White House meeting between President Trump and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte. The US started actually shipping weapons to Ukraine using the PURL fundsin September. The US and NATO have not detailed the contents of each PURL package, but reports say it is primarily air defenses, including Patriot missile interceptors, missiles for the HIMARS rocket systems, and other types of munitions.The Trump administration has also continued to ship weapons packages to Ukraine that were previously approved by the Biden administration and has approved several weapons sales for Ukraine, including one that’s partially funded by US military aid and will arm Ukrainian forces with long-range cruise missiles. US weapons shipments to Ukraine were reportedly slowed by the government shutdown, which just ended this week. The news of the latest PURL funding comes as Ukraine is losing territory to advancing Russian forces in both eastern and southern Ukraine, and peace talks between the two sides remain stalled.

US-Led 'Coordination Center' Replaces Israel as 'Overseer' of Gaza Aid Deliveries - The US military-led Civil-Military Coordination Center (CMCC) that was recently established in southern Israel has replaced Israel as the “overseer” of Gaza aid deliveries, The Washington Post reported on Friday. Since the ceasefire deal was supposed to be implemented on October 10, Israel has violated it by continuing to restrict aid deliveries entering Gaza. “Israel is blocking the Trump plan’s humanitarian clauses,” Jan Egeland, secretary general of the Norwegian Refugee Council, told the Post. Egeland said it was “very good news” that the US is more engaged in aid deliveries, though it remains unclear whether the restrictions will be lifted. “Our appeal is make the plan a reality,” he said. “Of course, the credibility of the United States is at stake here.” One of the biggest impediments to aid deliveries is that Israel has only allowed trucks to enter Gaza through two border crossings, with most deliveries going through the Kerem Shalom crossing in southern Gaza. “We need full access. We need everything to be moving fast. We are in a race against time. The winter months are coming. People are still suffering from hunger, and the needs are overwhelming,” Abeer Etefa, a spokeswoman for the UN’s World Food Program, said last week. There have been no direct aid deliveries to northern Gaza, where people need food the most, and, according to the Post report, many of the trucks allowed to enter Gaza carry commercial goods that few Palestinians can afford to purchase. The Post report said the responsibility for Gaza aid was being shifted to the CMCC from the Coordination of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT), a unit of the Israeli Defense Ministry that oversees Israeli-occupied and controlled territory. In response to the report, COGAT characterized the shift differently, saying the “Americans will be integrated into the formulation and implementation of coordination, supervision, and control mechanisms in the context of humanitarian aid, in full cooperation with the Israeli security services.” An unnamed Israeli official said that the “Americans will take the lead in engaging with the international community on humanitarian matters. … It should be emphasized that this does not constitute a transfer of authority or responsibility from COGAT to the Americans.” While the US leads the CMCC, where about 200 US troops have been deployed, the Post report said more than 40 other countries and organizations are also involved. The CMCC is also supposed to oversee an international force that may be deployed to Gaza under the ceasefire deal, but it remains unclear whether it will come together, as countries willing to participate want more clarity about exactly what their troops will be doing.

Kushner Meets With Netanyahu in Israel To Discuss Future Plans for Gaza - President Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday to discuss future plans for Gaza and the US-backed ceasefire deal.Despite lacking a formal role in the Trump administration, Kushner has been acting as an advisor to US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and has been very involved in the negotiations and discussions on Gaza, a place he once said could have “very valuable” waterfront property.Kushner and Netanyahu were joined by Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer and Aryeh Lightstone, who has also served as an advisor to Witkoff. There have been no public comments about the meeting, but it came as the US is pushing for the UN Security Council to adopt a resolution that would give a US-led body governance over Gaza and pave the way for the deployment of an international force to the Palestinian territory.Little progress has been made on deploying an international force, as countries willing to participate seek clarity on what their troops will be doing and don’t want to end up in a situation where they’re fighting Hamas. Israel has also rejected the idea of Turkey being involved.According to a report from Israel Hayom, the US military-led task force operating in southern Israel has been in contact with leaders of Israeli-backed militias and gangs operating in the Israeli-occupied side of Gaza.The largest group Israel is backing is a gang led by Yasser Abu Shabab, who admitted to looting aid trucks in 2024. Some members of the Abu Shabab gang, which is based in southern Gaza, have ties to ISIS, according to Israeli officials and Israeli media. The Israel Hayom report said that the US has made contact with Abu Shabab and that it’s considering using his gang and the other groups to “maintain order” in the Strip. Any effort by the Israeli-backed militias to assert authority in the Hamas-controlled areas of Gaza would likely lead to clashes between Palestinians.Kushner and Netanyahu were also expected to discuss the fate of an estimated 150 Hamas militants who are trapped in Israeli-occupied territory in Rafah, southern Gaza. The US has reportedly been pushing for an arrangement that would involve the fighters being granted safe passage to the Hamas-controlled side of Gaza if they don’t bring their weapons.

Officials Fear Permanent Israeli Occupation of More Than Half of Gaza - Reuters reported on Tuesday that European officials and other sources are concerned that, without more progress on the US-brokered Gaza ceasefire deal, the so-called “yellow line” dividing Israeli-occupied Gaza from the rest of the Strip will become a de facto border, meaning there will be an indefinite Israeli occupation of the Palestinian territory.The report comes as the Trump administration is pushing for a plan to allow reconstruction only in the Israeli-occupied side of Gaza, which accounts for about 58% of the territory. The Atlantic has reported that the US is considering building housing on the Israeli side of the yellow line that could be used by Palestinians who have been “screened” and approved by Israeli intelligence.Arab countries have been warning against the plan as they fear it will lead to a permanent Israeli occupation and expressed skepticism about the idea of Palestinians being willing to live on the Israeli side.“Palestinians may not want to live under the rule of Hamas, but the idea that they’ll be willing to move to live under Israeli occupation and be under control of the party they also see as responsible for killing 70,000 of their brethren is fantastical,” an Arab diplomat told The Times of Israel last week.The Atlantic report said that less than 2% of Gaza’s population lives on the Israeli-occupied side of the yellow line. Israel is backing at least four anti-Hamas militias and gangs behind the yellow line, and the US has reportedly been in contact with the groups about “enforcing order” in Gaza. One of the gangs, led by Yasser Abu Shabab, who admitted in 2024 that his group was looting aid trucks, has members with ties to ISIS. Israeli media reported on Tuesday that Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, who has been pushing the plan to divide Gaza into two, met with Abu Shabab, but the State Department denied that the meeting took place. The reports said that the US believes the Abu Shabab gang could help facilitate the movement of an estimated 150 Hamas militants trapped in Rafah on the Israeli-occupied side of the yellow line. Under the US ceasefire plan, Israel is required to withdraw further from the yellow line as an international force is deployed into Gaza and as the Strip is “demilitarized.” But there has been little progress on forming the international force, as the countries willing to participate want more clarity on the mission and don’t want to end up fighting Hamas on behalf of Israel. Hamas has also ruled out the idea of disarming without the establishment of a Palestinian state, an idea the Israeli government has repeatedly rejected.

Trump Formally Asks Israeli President To 'Fully Pardon' Netanyahu in Corruption Case - President Trump has sent a letter to the Israeli President Isaac Herzog asking him to “fully pardon” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in his corruption case, a strong show of support for the Israeli leader, who is also wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for his role in war crimes in Gaza. “As the Great State of Israel and the amazing Jewish People move past the terribly difficult times of the last three years, I hereby call on you to fully pardon Benjamin Netanyahu, who has been a formidable and decisive War Time Prime Minister, and is now leading Israel into a time of peace, which includes my continued work with key Middle East leaders to add many additional countries to the world changing Abraham Accords,” Trump wrote to Herzog (the full letter is at the end of the article). While Trump is portraying Netanyahu now as a “peace-time” leader, Israel has been conducting regular attacks in Gaza despite the US-brokered ceasefire deal, and has also continued bombing southern Lebanon, while in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, Jewish settlers have been on a rampage, and the IDF has stepped up raids. “While I absolutely respect the independence of the Israeli Justice System, and its requirements, I believe that this ‘case’ against Bibi, who has fought alongside me for a long time, including against the very tough adversary of Israel, Iran, is a political, unjustified prosecution,” Trump said. Trump concluded the letter by saying it was “let Bibi unite Israel by pardoning him, and ending that lawfare once and for all.” He has previously called for Netanyahu to be pardoned in a post on Truth Social and during a speech at the Israeli Knesset. In response to Trump’s request, Herzog did not take a position on the matter, and his office said in a statement that anyone seeking a pardon must go through the proper channels.“The president holds great respect for President Trump and repeatedly expresses his appreciation for Trump’s unwavering support of Israel and his tremendous contribution to the return of the hostages, the reshaping of the Middle East and Gaza, and the safeguarding of Israel’s security,” Herzog’s office said.“Without detracting from the above, as the president has made clear on multiple occasions, anyone seeking a pardon must submit a formal request in accordance with the established procedures,” the statement added.

‘Biggest in History’: $32 Billion Surge in US Weapons to Israel Exposed in WSJ Investigation --A Wall Street Journal investigation published on Thursday details how Israel’s war on Gaza has driven an unprecedented surge in US weapons sales, with Washington approving more than $32 billion in armaments, ammunition and equipment for Israel since October 2023.According to the report, the escalation in US arms transfers has created a booming market for major US defense contractors—most notably Boeing, Northrop Grumman, Caterpillar, Lockheed Martin, and General Dynamics.The WSJ wrote that Israel’s war “built an unprecedented arms pipeline from the US to Israel that continues to flow,” generating substantial business for leading American companies. The investigation found that Boeing has been the single largest beneficiary of wartime demand. The US approved an $18.8 billion sale of Boeing F-15 strike fighters to Israel last year, with deliveries starting in 2029. In 2025, additional guided-bomb packages and associated kits, where Boeing plays a leading role, received $7.9 billion in approvals.These amounts surpass Israel’s previous pledge in 2018 to purchase $10 billion from Boeing over a decade. According to the WSJ, they now represent “a significant portion of the company’s $74 billion in current orders.” Other companies highlighted in the report include:

• Northrop Grumman, supplying fighter-jet spare parts
• Lockheed Martin, providing high-precision missiles
• General Dynamics, producer of 120mm shells for Merkava tanks
• Caterpillar, whose armored D9 bulldozers have been “ubiquitous” in Gaza
• Oshkosh, supplying vehicle hulls used in Israel’s Eitan armored carriers

Israel’s ground operations have also relied heavily on US-linked components, including Rolls-Royce engines manufactured by the company’s US unit. The investigation also emphasized that US taxpayers are financing much of the flow. Israel’s annual foreign military financing package, normally $3.3 billion, surged to $6.8 billion in 2024, excluding additional non-cash support.A US State Department spokesperson told the WSJ that “the Trump Administration has consistently supported Israel’s right to defend itself and is now leading a regional effort to bring this war to an end.”The report documented growing investor and institutional resistance to companies involved in the war. Three Norwegian funds have divested from firms including Oshkosh, Palantir, Caterpillar and Thyssenkrupp. On October 1, Dutch pension giant ABP sold its $448 million stake in Caterpillar, citing concerns related to Gaza.Germany, the WSJ reported, announced in August that it will no longer approve weapons exports to Israel for use in Gaza. Tech companies have also faced internal dissent. In September, Microsoft “disabled the Israeli Defense Ministry’s access to some cloud services” after staff protests, the WSJ wrote.

Israel Seeks 20-Year Military Aid Deal With the US - Israel is seeking a 20-year military aid deal with the US and is looking to increase the annual amount of military assistance it receives from Washington, Axios reported on Thursday.A 20-year deal would double the usual term for US-Israel military aid agreements. The current Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), negotiated under the Obama administration, was the third 10-year military aid deal between the two countries.The current MOU, under which the US provides Israel with $3.8 billion in military aid each year, expires in 2028, and the Axios report said that Israeli officials hope to have a replacement deal in place over the next year. Since October 7, 2023, the US has provided significantly more military aid to Israel to support the genocidal campaign in Gaza and other Israeli military operations in the region.According to Brown University’s Costs of War Project, in the two years following the October 7 attack, the US government spent at least $21.7 billion on military aid to Israel and another $9.65 billion to $12.07 billion on wars in Yemen, Iran, and other military operations in the region in support of Israel.According to Axios, initial discussions between US and Israeli officials on a new MOU began in recent weeks. Israeli officials are worried that it may be more complicated to negotiate due to growing criticism of Israel within the US, including among President Trump’s MAGA base, and for that reason, they have proposed so-called “America First” provisions for the deal.“There is no such thing as ‘America first’ tweaks to such a deal,” Jon Hoffman, a research fellow for foreign policy at the Cato Institute, wrote on X in response to the news. “The Israelis want a 20yr MOU and will likely ask for an increase to current $3.8b they receive annually. This is the epitome of America LAST. Israel is a strategic liability—walk away.”

Biden Administration Had Intelligence That Israel Was Using Palestinians as Human Shields in Gaza - The US gathered intelligence last year of Israeli officials discussing their soldiers using Palestinians as human shields in Gaza by sending them into tunnels and buildings believed to be lined with explosives, Reuters reported on Wednesday, citing two US officials. The officials said that the intelligence was shared with the White House during the final weeks of the Biden administration. Despite the use of human shields being a clear war crime and violation of international law, Biden officials did nothing to curtail US military aid to Israel after receiving the intelligence. The IDF’s use of Palestinian civilians as human shields, known as the “mosquito protocol,” was so widespread in Gaza that one Israeli military officer writing anonymously in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz said that the IDF operated a “sub-army of Palestinian slaves.” While the IDF officially denies that it used human shields, there has been widespread reporting on itin Israeli media and testimony from Israeli soldiers and Palestinians about the practice. “You send the human shield underground. As he walks down the tunnel, he maps it all for you. He has an iPhone in his vest and as he walks it sends back GPS information,” Daniel, an Israeli tank commander, said in a documentary titled “Breaking Ranks: Inside Israel’s War” that broadcast on the UK’s ITV this week. “The commanders saw how it works. And the practice spread like wildfire. After about a week, every company was operating its own mosquito,” Daniel added. In one case, Israeli soldiers tied an explosive around the neck of an 80-year-old Palestinian man to force him to act as a human shield, threatening to blow his head off if he tried to run away. Once he served his purpose, the man and his wife were told to evacuate the area and were shot and killed by Israeli troops when they tried to flee. Mohammed Shubeir, a 17-year-old Palestinian boy, spoke to The New York Times last year about his experience being used as a human shield in Khan Younis. “The soldiers sent me like a dog to a booby-trapped apartment,” he said. “I thought these would be the last moments of my life.”

Iran Tells UN It Holds US Responsible for Israeli Bombing Campaign That Killed Over 1,000 - Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has sent a letter to top UN officials calling for the US to be held accountable for Israel’s attacks on Iran during the 12-Day War, which killed more than 1,000 people, including senior military officials, nuclear scientists, and many civilians.In the letter, Aragchi cited Trump’s recent comments about how he was “in charge” of the Israeli attacks. “Israel attacked first. That attack was very, very powerful. I was very much in charge of that,” Trump told reporters on November 6. “When Israel attacked Iran first, that was a great day for Israel because that attack did more damage than the rest of them put together.” Aragchi said the attacks on Iran violated international law and called for compensation. “The Islamic Republic of Iran reserves its full and unimpeachable right to pursue, through all available legal means, the establishment of accountability for the responsible States and individuals and to secure compensation for the damages sustained,” he wrote. The only direct airstrikes that the US launched during the war were the bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities, but the US supported the Israeli attacks by refueling Israeli jets throughout the 12 days, according to reports in Israeli media. The Trump administration also engaged in a deception campaign aimed at keeping Iran off guard before the initial Israeli attack.Israel conducted its first airstrikes on Iran on June 13, two days before the US and Iran were scheduled to hold another round of nuclear negotiations. Hours before the initial bombing started, Trump wrote on Truth Social that he was committed to a “diplomatic solution” with Iran.According to Iran’s Foundation for Martyrs and Veterans Affairs, at least 1,100 people were killed in Iran during the bombing campaign, including 132 women and 45 children. The US-funded Washington-based NGO Human Rights Activists in Iran, which is very critical of the Iranian government, has said that it identified 436 civilians and 435 members of Iran’s security forces who were killed. According to Israeli figures, 28 people were killed in Israel by Iranian missile attacks, all but one of them being civilians.

Trump Hosts Syria's Al-Qaeda Leader Turned President at the White House - President Trump on Monday hosted a meeting at the White House with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, the former al-Qaeda leader who took power in Damascus with his group of Jihadists, known as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, in December of last year.The Syrian Presidency said Sharaa and Trump were joined by Syrian Interior Minister Anas Hasan Khattab, another former al-Qaeda member, and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Photos of the meeting show that Vice President JD Vance and US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack, who has acted as an envoy to Syria, also attended.The Syrian Presidency said the officials “addressed the bilateral relations between the Syrian Arab Republic and the United States, as well as ways to strengthen and develop them, in addition to a number of regional and international issues of common interest.” The meeting marked the first time a Syrian president visited the White House since the country gained independence from France in 1946.Trump and Sharaa meet at the White House on November 10, 2025 (photo released by the Syrian Presidency)Despite his al-Qaeda past, Sharaa has been embraced by the Trump administration, which announced after the meeting that it was continuing its waiver of most Caesar Act sanctions on Syria for another 180 days. Sanctions under the Caesar Act were first imposed in 2020 and were designed to prevent the reconstruction of the country as long as former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad remained in power.“The US government has adopted new policies and regulatory posture to encourage US businesses and banks, the international community, the Syrian people, and regional partners to contribute to Syria’s stability while denying resources to harmful actors,” the US Treasury Department said.Sharaa was hoping for a permanent lifting of the US sanctions, but that requires action from Congress, which hasn’t been in session due to the government shutdown. Earlier in the day, Sharaa met with several members of Congress, including Rep. Joe Wilson (R-SC), who called for a “complete and total” repeal of the Caesar Act.Sharaa also met with Rep. Brian Mast (R-FL), the chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. “Last evening, the new Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa and I broke bread. We had a long and serious conversation about how to build a future for the people of Syria free of war, ISIS, and extremism,” Mast said in a statement on the meeting. “He and I are two former soldiers and two former enemies. I asked him directly ‘Why we are no longer enemies?’ His response was that he wishes to ‘liberate from the past and have a noble pursuit for his people and his country and to be a great ally to the United States of America,'” Mast added.While Sharaa now presents himself as a moderate, there have been massacres of thousands of Alawite and Druze civilians committed by government forces or government-linked fighters since he took power.

Marjorie Taylor Greene knocks Trump over meeting with Syrian president - Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) criticized President Trump on Monday for hosting Syrian interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa at the White House, rather than focusing on domestic issues like health care. In a post on social platform X, the outspoken congresswoman called on the president to prioritize crafting a GOP plan to address rising health care costs over meeting with foreign leaders. “I would really like to see nonstop meetings at the WH on domestic policy not foreign policy and foreign country’s leaders,” Greene said in her post. “Start by hauling in the health insurance company’s executives and let’s start formulating our Republican plan to save America from Obamacare and ACA tax credits that have skyrocketed the cost of health insurance!” she continued. Greene, a staunch Trump supporter, has bucked her party in recent months on several key issues, including health care. The Georgia Republican emerged as a rare voice castigating her party for failing to adequately prepare for the looming expiration of enhanced Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies, which Greene has noted will affect many of her constituents and even her adult children. Greene has also criticized certain aspects of the Trump administration’s foreign policy agenda and has encouraged the president and Republicans in Congress to focus on issues that she views as “America first” and that address Americans’ everyday concerns. Al-Sharaa arrived at the White House shortly before noon EST Monday, marking the first-ever visit of a Syrian head of state to the White House. The president last week lifted al-Sharaa’s terrorist designation. Greene took issue with the meeting, pointing to “the persecution” of Christians in Syria, which she said has been ongoing since the new leader’s rise to power last December. “The new leader of Syria is a former Al Qaeda terrorist wanted by our government who is meeting with President Trump today at the White House on the U.S. Marine’s 250th anniversary,” Greene wrote in her X post. “He rose to power in Dec 2024, sanctions were lifted off Syria in June, and many Christians and minority groups have been killed before and after sanctions were lifted,” she continued. “Syria is the oldest home of Christianity outside of Israel. The apostle Paul met Jesus on the road to Damascus. I pray the persecution ends, not only in Syria, but all around the world.” The White House did not respond to a request for comment.

Trump Says Marjorie Taylor Greene Has 'Lost Her Way' After She Criticized Him for Hosting Former Al-Qaeda Leader - President Trump on Monday said that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) has “lost her way” after the Georgia congresswoman criticized the president for hosting Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, a former al-Qaeda leader, at the White House and focusing on foreign policy over domestic policy.“I don’t know what happened to Marjorie. She’s a nice woman, but I don’t know what happened. She’s lost her way, I think,” Trump told reporters at the Oval Office when asked about Greene’s comments.“But I have to view the presidency as a worldwide situation, not locally. I mean, we could have a world that’s on fire, where wars come to our shores very easily, if you had a bad president,” the president added.In response to Trump, Greene told NBC News: “I haven’t lost my way. I’m 100% America first and only!”Earlier in the day, Greene strongly criticized the president’s meeting with Sharaa in a post on X that included a picture of a State Department wanted poster for when the Syrian leader was known by his al-Qaeda nom de guerre, Abu Mohammad al-Julani.“The new leader of Syria is a former Al Qaeda terrorist wanted by our government who is meeting with President Trump today at the White House on the US Marine’s 250th anniversary. He rose to power in Dec 2024, sanctions were lifted off Syria in June, and many Christians and minority groups have been killed before and after sanctions were lifted,” Greene said.“Syria is the oldest home of Christianity outside of Israel. The apostle Paul met Jesus on the road to Damascus. I pray the persecution ends, not only in Syria, but all around the world. However, I would really like to see nonstop meetings at the WH on domestic policy not foreign policy and foreign country’s leaders,” she added.

CENTCOM Says Its Forces Conducted 22 Operations Against ISIS in Syria Over the Past Month - US Central Command said in a press release on Wednesday that its forces in Syria “advised, assisted, and enabled” more than 22 military operations over the past month that resulted in the killing of five alleged ISIS members and the capture of 19. CENTCOM said the operations were conducted with “Syrian partners,” which include the Kurdish-led SDF based in northeast Syria and now the new Syrian government, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an offshoot of al-Qaeda. The CENTCOM press release noted that Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, who was once an ally of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the founder of ISIS, announced this week that Syria has officially joined the US-led anti-ISIS coalition. One joint raid conducted by US and Syrian forces on October 18 resulted in the killing of Ahmad Abdullah Al-Masoud al-Badri, who was known as a former ISIS commander who also had ties with Syria’s HTS government, having received a visit from government officials just a month before the raid. According to Syria Weekly, a pro-HTS media outlet, al-Badri was shot during the raid but was later released after US and Syrian forces learned that he worked for the intelligence wing of HTS, but he succumbed to his wounds. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), one other ISIS member was killed in the raid and another was injured. The raid raises questions about the HTS government’s potential alignment with members of ISIS since the two groups share a similar ideology. The US is expected to continue boosting its military alliance with the new Syrian government, and, according to a report from Reuters, the US is planning to establish a military presence at an airbase in Damascus as part of a plan to monitor a potential security deal between Syria and Israel.

US Bombs Somalia for the 90th Time This Year - US Africa Command said in a press release on Monday that its forces launched an airstrike in Somalia on November 8, marking at least the 90th time that the US has bombed the country this year.AFRICOM said the strike targeted the ISIS affiliate in Somalia’s northeastern Puntland region and that it was launched about 40 miles southeast of the Gulf of Aden port city of Bosaso, a remote area of the Cal Miskaad mountains. The command offered no other details about the strike, as it had stopped sharing casualty estimates and assessments on civilian harm earlier this year. “Specific details about units and assets will not be released to ensure continued operations security,” the command said. The US backs local security forces in Puntland, as the US-backed Federal Government, which is based in Mogadishu, doesn’t control the territory. In 2024, the Puntland government withdrew from the federal system in response to President Hassan Sheikh’s move to amend the constitution. The Puntland government has come under criticism recently over reports that the UAE has been shipping weapons to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan through an air base in Bosaso. The RSF has been accused of committing genocide in Sudan, and its fighters committed atrocities against civilians after it took the city of El Fasher in Sudan’s western Darfur region in October.

Russia Says It's Considering Venezuela's Requests for Assistance Amid US Military Buildup in the Caribbean - Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Friday that Moscow was prepared to “respond appropriately” to Venezuela’s request for military assistance amid a US military buildup in the Caribbean, Newsweek has reported. Zakharova also responded to reports that the US had drawn up different options for attacking Venezuela and warned against any escalation. “It’s clear that what a number of American observers, experts, and figures in various structures are saying is that this kind of direct aggression will worsen the situation rather than resolve the issues that have every potential to be resolved legally and diplomatically within the legal framework,” she said, according to Russia’s TASS news agency. Alexei Zhuravlev, a senior lawmaker in Russia’s State Duma, said last week that Moscow had recently delivered air defense systems to Venezuela, including the Pantsir-S1, a system Caracas was not previously known to have. Zhuravlev said Moscow could also be open to sending Venezuela ballistic missiles. According to a report from The Washington Post, the US believes that Venezuela has recently asked Russia for assistance in restoring Russian-made Sukhoi Su-30MK2 fighter jets, overhauling engines and radar systems, and also requested 14 sets of what are believed to be Russian-made missiles. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, whom the US is looking to remove from power, said last month that his forces have 5,000 Russian-made Igla-S missiles, a portable air defense system, and that they were deployed in “key air defense positions.” The Venezuelan leader has also said that a pro-government militia that has millions of members is also ready to fight if the US attacks.According to The New York Times, potential US plans for starting a war with Venezuela include bombing military targets, sending a special operations force to kill or capture Maduro, or sending a much larger force to seize airfields and oil infrastructure in the country. Any one of the options risks a full-blown war with Venezuela, or if the US is successful in taking out Maduro and decapitating his government, it could plunge the country into chaos.

Military carries out 20th lethal strike in Caribbean - The U.S. military conducted its 20th lethal strike against an alleged drug-trafficking boat on Monday, killing four “narco-terrorists” in the Caribbean Sea, a Pentagon official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told The Hill on Thursday.There were no survivors following the attack, part of what the Trump administration argues is a military campaign, which kicked off in early September, to curb the flow of illegal drugs into the U.S.The military has killed at least 80 people so far in the operations, which have prompted pushback from both sides of the aisle and have been deemed illegal by national security lawyers. The strikes have taken place in both the Caribbean and the Eastern Pacific.The Pentagon has not shared more information about the latest strike and whether the vessel was affiliated with a designated terrorist organization. The latest attack was reported earlier by CBS News.The Monday attack comes as the administration has amassed a massive military presence in the U.S. Southern Command (Southcom) region, deploying warships, F-35 fighter jets, spy planes and other military assets in the area. The Navy on Tuesday confirmed the world’s largest aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, and its strike group arrived in the Southcom region, which includes the Caribbean and Central and South America. The carrier, which has more than 4,000 sailors, carries F/A-18 Super Hornets fighter jets and long-range Tomahawk missiles.Amid the strikes, Trump and other officials have turned up the pressure against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, calling him an “illegitimate leader.” The president signaling during a recent CBS “60 Minutes” interview that Maduro’s days are numbered.

US Bombs Two More Boats in the Waters of Latin America - US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth announced on Monday that the US military bombed two more boats that he claimed, without providing evidence, were carrying drugs in the Eastern Pacific Ocean.The strikes bring the total number of boats the US has bombed since early September to 20, including 10 that were targeted in the Caribbean and 10 that were hit in the Eastern Pacific. Hegseth said the latest bombing killed a total of six “narco-terrorists,” a term the Trump administration has used to justify extra-judicial executions for an alleged crime that doesn’t receive the death penalty in the United States.The six deaths bring the total number of people the US military has killed at sea to 75, according to numbers released by the Trump administration. “Under President Trump, we are protecting the homeland and killing these cartel terrorists who wish to harm our country and its people,” Hegseth wrote on X. Video of the strikes released by Hegseth. Last week, President Trump repeated the false claim that for each boat the US military destroys, 25,000 American lives are saved. He has previously claimed the strikes were targeting fentanyl, which has caused the majority of drug overdoses in the US, but the Pentagon has told Congress that all of the boats it has hit were allegedly smuggling cocaine, though the Department of War has not provided any evidence to back up its claims about what the vessels are carrying.The bombing campaign began targeting boats leaving Venezuela, which is not a producer of fentanyl or a transit point for fentanyl that arrives in the US. A report from The Washington Post cited officials from the US and other countries who said the route the US was targeting near Venezuela is mainly used to smuggle cocaine and marijuana to Trinidad and Tobago, and from there, cocaine is shipped to Europe and West Africa.The bombing campaign has come under increasing scrutiny due to the lack of legal authority. During a recent congressional briefing on the strikes, the Pentagon admitted it didn’t know the identities of the people it has been killing. Rep. Sara Jacobs (D-CA), who attended the briefing, said the military campaign would still be illegal even if it were authorized by Congress.

Report: UK Believes US Strikes on Boats in the Caribbean Are Illegal, No Longer Sharing Intelligence - The UK has ceased sharing intelligence with the US about suspected drug trafficking boats in the Caribbean because it believes the US bombing campaign against vessels in the region is illegal and doesn’t want to be complicit, CNN reported on Tuesday.The report comes as the US military has ramped up its bombing campaign against boats in the region and has expanded it to the Eastern Pacific. Since the first strike was launched on September 2, the US has blown up 20 boats and has killed at least 75 people, according to numbers released by the Trump administration.The administration has labeled each person it has killed a “narco-terrorist,” a term it used to justify extra-judicial executions for a crime that doesn’t receive the death penalty in the United States.The CNN report said that the UK, a close ally and intelligence-sharing partner of the US, has long helped the US locate suspected drug-smuggling boats in the Caribbean, where the UK has several overseas territories. The US previously used that information to intercept the vessels and treat anyone on board as suspected criminals, with the right to due process. Sources told CNN that the UK believes the US strikes on alleged drug boats are a violation of international law. Canada has also sought to distance itself from the illegal bombing campaign, and has reportedly conveyed to the US that it will continue to cooperate with the US Coast Guard in the Caribbean, but doesn’t want its intelligence being used for the boat strikes. France has also condemned the US attacks in the region as illegal. “We have observed with concern the military operations in the Caribbean region, because they violate international law and because France has a presence in this region through its overseas territories, where more than a million of our compatriots reside,” French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said on Tuesday. “They could therefore be affected by the instability caused by any escalation, which we obviously want to avoid.”The Trump administration has also faced internal opposition to the bombing campaign, with lawyers specializing in international law in the Department of War’s Office of General Counsel raising concerns about the strikes’ legality. The US military commander overseeing US Southern Command, Adm. Alvin Holsely, has also reportedly raised concerns about the bombing campaign and is stepping down from his post just one year into his command, a highly unusual step for a career military officer in his position.

US Aircraft Carrier Arrives in Latin America Amid Push Toward War With Venezuela - The USS Gerald Ford, the US military’s largest aircraft carrier, has arrived in the Caribbean as part of a major US military buildup in the region aimed at ousting Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.According to a report from USNI News, the carrier has arrived with three US Navy destroyers from its strike group, joining other US warships already in the region. The additional forces bring the total number of US military personnel in the Caribbean to about 15,000.In response to the US military buildup, Venezuela said on Tuesday that it was launching a “massive mobilization” of troops, weapons, and equipment along its coast.Citing Trump administration officials, The New York Times reported that with the arrival of the Gerald Ford, pressure will build to use the threat of force to remove Maduro under some kind of diplomatic deal, or to use the vast firepower of the carrier and other military assets in the region to forcibly oust the Venezuelan leader.The Times previously reported that President Trump has reviewed several options for launching attacks on Venezuela, including bombing military sites, sending in a special operations force to kill or capture Maduro, or deploying a much larger force to seize strategic airfields and oil infrastructure inside the country.Last week, ahead of a Senate vote on a bill to block Trump from starting a war with Venezuela without congressional authorization, Trump officials told lawmakers that they didn’t currently have plans to bomb the country and that they lacked the legal authorization to do so. But the administration also conveyed that they planned on getting a legal opinion from the Department of Justice to justify strikes in Venezuela, which would still be illegal without approval from Congress, per the Constitution.The Senate voted down the Venezuela War Powers in a vote of 49-51, with only two Republicans, Senators Rand Paul (KY) and Lisa Murkowski (AK), voting with Democrats to stop a potential illegal war.

Venezuela military launching ‘massive mobilization’ amid tensions with US - Venezuela said late Tuesday that it is launching a “massive deployment” of nearly 200,000 soldiers in response to the U.S. sending its largest aircraft carrier into the waters near Latin America and rising tensions between the two countries.Venezuelan Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López said officials were placing “the entire country’s military arsenal on full operational readiness,” with preparations including the “massive deployment of ground, aerial, naval, riverine and missile forces.”Padrino said Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro directly ordered the massive deployment as part of the special operation, with land, air, naval and reserve forces to carry out war drills through Wednesday to “optimize command, control and communications” and ensure the country’s defense.He said the move was in response to the “imperialist threat” posed by the U.S. buildup of warships and troops in the Caribbean Sea.The Venezuelan military exercises also will reportedly involve the Bolivarian Militia, a civilian reserve force created by former President Hugo Chávez.The mobilization announcement came shortly after the U.S. Navy said the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford and its strike group arrived in the Latin American region Tuesday, in the U.S. Southern Command area of operations.The vessel’s arrival was anticipated for weeks as the Pentagon announced Oct. 24 that it had ordered the Ford to relocate to Latin America from Europe. The Navy’s most modern aircraft carrier, the Ford carries 4,000 sailors, with numerous more aboard the three destroyers that accompanied it, the USS Bainbridge, USS Mahan and USS Winston S. Churchill. The group’s entry also increases the number of U.S. troops in the region to about 15,000, with officials arguing it is meant to dismantle transnational criminal organizations and curb drug-smuggling. The buildup — which includes eight warships already there, an estimated 5,000 service members at U.S. facilities in Puerto Rico, and several bomber training flights flown near the Venezuelan coast — is an extraordinary military presence in a region that typically has only one or two Navy vessels to help the U.S. Coast Guard in drug-interdiction missions. The Trump administration also has upended how it usually handles alleged drug boats, carrying out at least 19 strikes that have killed at least 76 people since September. U.S. officials have claimed the strikes were justified as they argue without evidence that the vessels were carrying drugs bound for the U.S. Before this aggressive approach, which war experts have labeled as illegal, the Coast Guard would routinely detain suspects and prosecute them. Maduro has argued Washington’s actions as a bid to force him out of office, which President Trump floated in a recent interview on CBS’s “60 Minutes.” Trumpindicated Maduro’s days were numbered after earlier suggesting he was weighing possible strikes inside the country.

Colombia's Gustavo Petro criticizes 'barbarian' Donald Trump's Caribbean strikes -Colombian PresidentGustavo Petro slammed President Trump as a “barbarian” for his military buildup in the Caribbean andlethal strikes against alleged drug-shuttling boats in the region, another sign of the spiraling relations between the U.S. and Latin America. Petro, in an interview with NBC News published Thursday, defended his decision to stop intelligence sharing with the U.S. as part of growing alarm among America’s partners regarding the military operations. The Trump administration began launching strikes in September against what it said are drug-traffickers emanating from Venezuela. Democrats, and a few Republicans, haveraised alarm about the lack of evidence to support the strikes and argued Trump is violating the law in carrying out extended military operations without approval from Congress.American allies are increasingly raising concern. The United Kingdom reportedly halted intelligence sharing with the U.S. related to the boat strikes, a move that was followed by Colombia. Colombia would not “pass on the information because we would be collaborating with a crime against humanity,” Petro told NBC News, slamming Trump as a “barbarian” who “wants to frighten us.” Petro also noted intelligence sharing is “not for killing,” but stopped short of saying the boats struck by the U.S. were not carrying drugs. “Maybe or maybe not. We do not know,” he said. “In due process, in the civilized treatment of people, they are seized and detained.”

DOJ argues military personnel can't be prosecuted for Caribbean boat strikes - An opinion drafted over the summer by the Department of Justice argues service members who participate in boat strikes in the Caribbean cannot be prosecuted — one of the many concerns expressed by critics who have questioned their legality. Details of the July opinion, first reported by The Washington Post, come as lawmakers have expressed scrutiny over the strikes, including whether they put military members in the position of having to carry out unlawful killings. The strikes, carried out in waters off of Venezuela and Colombia, have killed 76 people since they began in September. While the Trump administration argues they are taking out drug traffickers, the deadly strikes are a departure from the practice of interdicting boats suspected of ferrying drugs. Family members of the victims have denied involvement in the drug trade, while Colombian President Gustavo Petro said a strike there killed a lifelong fisherman. “The strikes were ordered consistent with the laws of armed conflict, and as such are lawful orders. Military personnel are legally obligated to follow lawful orders and, as such, are not subject to prosecution for following lawful orders,” a Justice Department spokesperson said in a statement Thursday. Lawmakers last month specifically raised concerns that service members run that risk. In a letter to the Justice Department, Democrats on the Senate Judiciary Committee noted the United States Code of Military Justice “prohibits the premeditated and unlawful killing of a human being” but that it also requires obeying orders, “putting our service members in the impossible position of risking criminal prosecution for carrying out an unlawful order to kill civilians or risking prosecution for disobeying superior orders.”

Hegseth Announces New US Military Campaign in Latin America Dubbed 'Operation Southern Spear' - US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth on Thursday announced a new US military campaign, dubbed “Operation Southern Spear,” which he said was ordered by President Trump. Hegseth’s announcement came as US officials revealed that the US bombed another alleged drug-running boat in the region on Monday, marking the 20th strike and the 21st boat the US military has blown up since the campaign began in early September. The officials said that the latest strike killed four “narco-terrorists,” a term the Trump administration uses to justify the extrajudicial executions at sea.According to numbers released by the Trump administration, the latest boat strike brings the total number of people killed in the campaign to 79. The Pentagon has offered no evidence to back up its claims that the boats it has been bombing were carrying drugs, and it has also admitted to Congress that it doesn’t know the identities of the people who have been killed.The US has been facing growing criticism of the bombing campaign, which is clearly illegal under domestic and international law, but Hegseth’s statement signals the strikes will increase.“Today, I’m announcing Operation SOUTHERN SPEAR,” Hegseth wrote on X. “Led by Joint Task Force Southern Spear and [US Southern Command], this mission defends our Homeland, removes narco-terrorists from our Hemisphere, and secures our Homeland from the drugs that are killing our people. The Western Hemisphere is America’s neighborhood – and we will protect it.”Hegseth’s statement and the new military operation could also signal a move toward war with Venezuela, as CBS News reported earlier in the daythat he was involved in a briefing with President Trump on potential military operations in the South American country, including strikes on land.

Pritzker: Trump ‘might take us to war with Venezuela’ to distract from Epstein controversy -- Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker (D) suggested Wednesday that President Trump ramping up military operations in the Caribbean is his way of distracting from controversy surrounding files connected to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Lawmakers released thousands of new files related to the case Wednesday, after House Democrats leaked emails from Epstein that raise new questions about how much Trump knew when it came to the late disgraced financier’s relationship with underage girls. “My great fear, of course, is that with the release of that information, which I think will be devastating for Trump, he’s going to do everything in his power to distract,” Pritzker told The Associated Press in an interview. “What does that mean? I mean, he might take us to war with Venezuela just to get a distraction in the news and take it out of the headlines.” he added. In recent months, the Trump administration has faced intense backlash over its handling of fileslinked to Epstein from both sides of the aisle — with pressure mounting for the release of all of the documents. Democrats late Wednesday successfully moved a discharge petition across the finish line to do just that, and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said he would bring it to the floor for a vote next week. The move comes days after the U.S. military’s largest aircraft carrier — the USS Gerald R. Ford —arrived in Latin America as part of the Defense Department’s pressure campaign against drug cartels and vessels in the Caribbean. Venezuela, whom the administration has pinned much of the blame on for the illegal movement of narcotics, responded by announcing their own “massive deployment” of soldiers as tensions rise in the region over the deadly boat strikes. According to Venezuelan Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López, officials were putting “the entire country’s military arsenal on full operational readiness.”

State Department issues warning in Japan after bears kill 13 since April - The U.S. State Department has warned Americans traveling to Japan to watch their surroundings after more than a dozen people have been killed by bears in the country so far in 2025. Japanese authorities closed Maruyama Park in Sapporo, close to the U.S. Consulate General, for two weeks after bears were spotted in the park, according to a Wednesday alert from the U.S. Embassy and Consulates in Japan. Since April, 13 people have died in bear attacks, with Akita and nearby Iwate being most affected, AFP reported. This prompted the deployment of Japanese troops to the northern Akita region on Nov. 8.“Bear sightings and attacks have increased in parts of Japan, especially in municipalities close to or adjacent to populated zones,” the embassy’s alert read. “Although the Consulate is located outside of the park, we encourage all visitors for routine or other services to be diligent and aware of your surroundings.”Residential areas in Hokkaido and Akita have also seen bears, which could lead to more park closures.The embassy urges travelers to avoid areas where bear sightings have been reported and to not walk alone if in those areas. People who spot a bear should report it to local authorities. Travelers can enroll in the Smart Traveler Enrollment Program to receive security messages; the program also helps local authorities locate travelers in an emergency. Troops deployed in affected areas will not carry firearms because of Japan’s strict gun laws. They will instead carry bear sprays, sticks, shields, goggles, bullet-proof jackets and net launchers, according to AFP.

Suburban Chicago dad headed to store with toddler says they were pepper-sprayed by federal agents(AP) — A suburban Chicago father and his 1-year-old daughter were pepper-sprayed at close range as they headed grocery shopping over the weekend and happened upon federal immigration agents, the family said. Rafael Veraza said the incident happened in a Sam's Club parking lot in Cicero on Saturday, amid escalating clashes that day between immigration agents and frustrated area residents. The suburb shares a border with the Chicago neighborhood of Little Village, a largely Mexican enclave that has frequently been at the center of a federal immigration crackdown that began two months ago in the nation's third-largest city. Veraza said the family was in their car when they heard a helicopter and honking, common signals in the Chicago area these days that federal agents are nearby. They decided to leave. That’s when a masked agent pointed a pepper-spray gun through their vehicle’s open window and fired. A cloudy substance hit Veraza in the face, which also affected his daughter, according to a video taken by the family. “My daughter was trying to open her eyes,” Veraza told reporters Sunday, as his wife held their daughter nearby. “She was struggling to breathe.” He said they were not protesting, honking their horns to warn others or trying to interfere. A longtime pastor in the area, the Rev. Matt DeMateo, arrived at the scene to help and also recorded footage of Veraza struggling to open his eyes and of their daughter, Arianna, crying while her mother tried to comfort her. “A family, and I shouldn't have to say this, but guess what? All U.S. citizens attacked while shopping,” he said. “We need a better way.”Saturday marked a day of chaotic encounters in the operation that has seen more than 3,200 arrests of people suspecting of violating immigration laws in the Chicago area. The aggressive tactics used by agents from Customs and Border Protection and Immigration and Customs Enforcement have repeatedly come under fire through legal challenges. Agents have used chemical agents liberally across the city of 2.7 million and its many suburbs. They've also gone into a daycare to arrest a teacher, targeted rideshare drivers at O’Hare International Airport, thrown tear gas in a neighborhood preparing for a Halloween parade and gone after landscapers.But the area hit the hardest has been Little Village, a neighborhood with one of the city's largest business corridors that's sometimes dubbed the “Mexico of the Midwest.” Most restaurants and shops have signs warning ICE agents to stay out while neighbors use whistles and car horns to warn passersby of immigration agents who often stage in an area behind the Sam's Club. DHS said agents were conducting enforcement operations when they encountered a “hostile crowd” and someone fired at federal officers. Federal officials alleged protesters threw paint cans and bricks at agents’ vehicles. Chicago police were called to respond to a call of gunshots fired at federal agents. No one was injured. “Make no mistake: Our mission will continue despite the violence," Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin said.

Chicago day care teacher released from ICE detention a week after arrest— A Chicago day care teacher arrested a week ago by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) on the city’s North Side has been released from custody, according to the law firm Hughes Socol Piers Resnick & Dym (HSPRD). Diana Santillana Galeano was detained on Nov. 5 by federal agents at her workplace, Rayito de Sol Spanish Immersion Early Learning Center, located in the North Center neighborhood. According to HSPRD, Santillana Galeano was released Wednesday night from ICE detention in Clay County, Ind. “We are thrilled that Ms. Santillana was released, and has been able to return home to Chicago where she belongs,” said attorney Charlie Wysong, who, along with Naiara Testai, represents Santillana Galeano at HSPRD. “We will continue to pursue her immigration claims to stay in the United States. We are grateful to her community for the outpouring of support over these difficult days, and ask that her privacy be respected while she rests and recovers from this ordeal.” Nexstar’s NewsNation reported that Santillana Galeano was released after a U.S. District judge in Chicago ruled that her arrest was illegal because she was not offered bond when she was detained. Her arrest took place on Nov. 5, when an SUV of federal agents followed Santillana Galeano’s vehicle to the day care center, then followed her into the building, where children were in attendance at the time. Video from the scene captured two agents dragging the teacher from the day care, taking her into custody. According to Congressman Mike Quigley, the agents did not have a warrant. A Department of Homeland Security source previously told NewsNation that Santillana Galeano entered the U.S illegally from Colombia in 2023, adding that she later sent for her children, ages 16 and 17, who arrived in October as unaccompanied children. Santillana Galeano’s detainment sparked outrage among community members, parents and city leaders — many coming forward in support and to speak on her behalf.

"Chicagoans Do Not Want Us To Bankroll The Regime": Chicago Will No Longer Buy Treasury Bonds --by Jonathan Turley, “It’s a bold statement, isn’t it?” Those words of Chicago City Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin hardly capture the moment.Yesterday, Conyears-Ervin declared that her office would no longer invest in U.S. Treasury bonds to protest what she called the “authoritarian regime” of President Donald Trump. It is more bonkers than bold. It makes about as much sense as President Trump saying that he will not eat deep-dish pizza to protest Chicago.My hometown of Chicago is facing an economic meltdown due to towering debt and massive spending. Mayor Ben Johnson and the unions have pushed self-destructive tax schemes and borrowing plans that would only accelerate the flight from the city and the collapse of the city’s finances.Now, the person in charge of investing that money is declaring that politics rather than economics will guide investments.It is the ultimate virtue signaling at the cost of others. She is given a fiduciary duty to properly maintain and protect the investments of the city, which is currently facing a rising debt crisis. She is saying that the city will not invest in what Ald. Bill Conway (34th), a former investment banker, correctly described as “by far the most liquid and secure debt instrument in the history of the world.”Chicago has held almost a quarter of a billion dollars in Treasury bonds in the last three years due to its healthy return for citizens. To forego such investments is Kamikaze economics, destroying your own portfolio and investors as a demonstration of true faith.The position hurts only Chicagoans. However, the loss to the citizens could still provide gains to Conyears-Ervin, who is running to replace radical Chicago congressman, Danny Davis. Her announcement is meant to tap into the rage as she declared: “Chicagoans do not want us to bankroll the regime — the authoritarian regime — of Donald Trump where he has waged a war on our city. It’s a bold statement, isn’t it? And we need it to be.”

Trump Organization requested record number of foreign workers in 2025 -- The Trump Organization requested 184 foreign workers to work across various company properties, a record number that has increased over the years. The company sought to hire workers through H-2A and H-2B visas for temporary positions at Mar-a-Lago, two golf clubs and at Trump Vineyard Estates in Charlottesville, Va., according to data from the Department of Labor. Over the course of Trump’s first term and the first nine months of his second term, the Trump Organization’s visa requests increased from 121 in 2021 to 184 in 2025, according to Forbes. Overall, the company has filed to hire 566 foreign laborers to work as servers, farm workers, kitchen staff, clerks and housekeepers, primarily. For the H-2A and H-2B visa programs, businesses need the Department of Labor’s approval before petitioning the Department of Homeland Security. After that, the Department of State issues the visas. Trump previously defended bringing in foreign workers on visas on Fox News’s “The Ingraham Angle” on Tuesday. He argued that the U.S. does not have enough people with “certain talents” to do particular jobs. After Ingraham said that bringing in thousands of foreign workers would hurt efforts to raise wages, Trump agreed but added, “You also do have to bring in talent.” “You can’t take people off an unemployment line and say, ‘I’m going to put you into a factory where we’re going to make missiles,'” he later said in the interview. Following Trump’s interview, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) appeared to criticize the president’s remarks. “I am solidly against you being replaced by foreign labor, like with H1Bs,” she wrote in a post on the social media platform X. The H-1B visa program, created in 1990, allows employers to hire foreign workers in certain specialty occupations. In September, Trump signed a proclamation to raise H-1B visa fees to $100,000 to encourage companies to hire American workers instead. The fee does not apply to anyone who currently has a visa.

FBI Director Says China Agreed To Curb Fentanyl Precursors - FBI Director Kash Patel said at a press briefing on Nov. 12 that during his recent trip to China, Chinese officials agreed to take significant steps to curb fentanyl precursor exports to the United States.“That was the sole purpose of my trip to China, to eliminate these precursors, and if successful, we would suffocate the drug trafficking organization’s ability to manufacture fentanyl in places like Mexico,” Patel said.His one-day trip to China last week was the first such trip by the head of the FBI in a decade.The trip followed the meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping during which the nations agreed to a trade truce that included Beijing’s commitment to stop illicit fentanyl trafficking to the United States.Patel said that on the heels of that successful bilateral, “China committed fully” to his engagement on the ground in Beijing “at a level never seen before.”🚨 BREAKING: In an enormous victory, FBI Director Kash Patel announces the pipeline to create fentanyl has been SHUT DOWN IN MEXICO and worldwide, saving tens of thousands of Americans. "Effective immediately, President Trump has shut off the pipeline that creates fentanyl that… pic.twitter.com/G4tj07C3n0The meeting took place at the headquarters of China’s Ministry of Public Security, where Patel met with his counterpart.Beijing agreed to restrict the export of 13 fentanyl precursor chemicals to the United States, Mexico, and Canada. It also agreed to control seven chemical subsidiaries also used in fentanyl production.“Essentially, President Trump has shut off the pipeline that creates fentanyl, that kills tens of thousands of Americans,”Patel said. “These substances are now banned, and they will no longer be utilized by the Mexican drug trafficking organizations or any other CEOs around the world to make this drug. This achievement will save lives.”Patel also called his counterpart in China earlier this year, leading Beijing to ban the export of four fentanyl precursors beginning on Sept. 1. Trump announced 10 percent tariffs on China early in his term as a result of Beijing’s role in the fentanyl crisis, doubling that to 20 percent the next month.After the recent meeting with Xi, the tariff was halved to 10 percent, tied to Beijing’s commitment to ban the chemicals.

China announces restrictions on chemicals after deal with Trump on fentanyl tariffs (AP) — China said Monday it is making good on its pledge to crack down on chemicals that can be used to make fentanyl, a key issue for President Donald Trump during recent talks with Chinese leader Xi Jinping as they aimed to take steps to ease a trade war. Beijing announced new export restrictions on 13 “drug-making” chemicals to the United States, Canada and Mexico, including those that are used to produce the synthetic opioid blamed for tens of thousands of overdose deaths in the U.S. every year. After meeting Xi in South Korea last month, Trump said China would help end the fentanyl crisis and he would ease a related tariff from 20% to 10%. It shows the back-and-forth nature of U.S.-Chinese cooperation on fentanyl over the years and lessens the recent tensions after Trump launched his campaign of tariffs, including those against the country that is the top exporter of pharmaceutical ingredients, such as the chemicals used to make fentanyl. “What the Trump administration has essentially agreed with Beijing is for Beijing to restart what it had been doing during the second part of 2024,” before Trump returned to the White House, said Vanda Felbab-Brown, a senior fellow focusing on the opioid crisis at the Brookings Institution. Asked for the White House’s response to the Chinese export restrictions and whether the deal essentially resumes the cooperation from China that was disrupted by Trump’s tariffs, deputy press secretary Anna Kelly said the president “has taken every possible action to stop the flow of illicit narcotics into our country, from securing the border to striking drug boats to curbing fentanyl precursors.” Cooperation on fentanyl has long been a sticking point in relations between Beijing and Washington. In 2019, during Trump’s first term, Beijing took a huge step by restricting fentanyl and related substances at the request of the U.S. president. When tensions rose between Beijing and Washington over human rights issues, China started to stall counternarcotics cooperation in 2020 before making it formal two years later. The U.S. in 2023 listed China as a “major illicit drug-producing country” before then-President Joe Biden met Xi in California to secure Beijing’s agreement to cooperate. Shortly afterward, Beijing restricted more substances, including another synthetic opioid and chemicals that are added to fentanyl. Other key fentanyl precursors were curtailed in September 2024. After Trump took office, he slapped two 10% tariffs on China, accusing it of failing to stem the flow of chemicals. Beijing responded with its own tariffs and pausing cooperation on fentanyl. “The Trump administration made the big error in completely discounting and ignoring what China was doing with the U.S. in 2024 and just coming in with guns blazing” on tariffs, Felbab-Brown said. That, she said, has allowed Beijing to bargain to resume measures that were already on the table in the second half of 2024 and “get double points.” Also on Monday, Beijing took another step aimed at addressing U.S. concerns, signaling tougher enforcement with a public notice by the China National Narcotics Control Commission urging businesses to comply with tax codes, customs rules, internet laws and foreign currency regulations. The chemicals newly restricted by Beijing can still be exported without a license to other countries besides the three in North America that were named in the Chinese Commerce Ministry announcement. Fentanyl is mostly manufactured in Mexico. The challenge remains that the “very basic chemicals” with widespread, legitimate uses in chemistry, agriculture and the pharmaceutical industry are increasingly tapped to make synthetic opioids

Donald Trump: Tariffs to fund $2K dividend payout - President Trump said Sunday that each American will receive at least $2,000 from tariff revenue collected by the administration. “A dividend of at $2000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone,” the president said on his Truth Social platform. He added that those against the tariffs are “FOOLS!” Such a proposal would likely need to be passed by Congress. This summer, Republican Sen. Josh Hawley (Mo.) introduced legislation to give $600 tariff rebates to nearly all Americans and their dependent children. “My legislation would allow hardworking Americans to benefit from the wealth that Trump’s tariffs are returning to this country,” Hawley said at the time. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, though, told CNBC in August that the administration’s priority is paying down the $38.12 trillion national debt using the tariff revenue. On Sunday, Trump also said that the administration would pay down the “ENORMOUS” debt using tariff revenue. The Hill has reached out to the White House for clarification on the president’s plan. Through the first three quarters of this year, the Treasury Department collected $195 billion from tariff duties, according to its September statement. But as of Oct. 17, consumers are facing an average effective tariff rate of 18 percent, the highest since 1934, according to the Yale Budget Lab. After the president imposed sweeping tariffs on trading partners around the world in April, firms have passed on some tariff costs to customers.

Trump tariff rebate checks could cost twice as much as their revenue: Analysis - President Trump’s potential tariff rebate checks could cost twice as much as the revenue generated by his import taxes, according to an analysis released Monday. The president has floated sending checks of “at least $2,000” to every American below a certain income threshold, which would be funded by the money paid by U.S. importers to comply with Trump’s tariffs. But checks of the size and scope suggested by Trump would likely cost far more money than what the president’s tariffs are projected to bring in, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB). The nonpartisan budget watchdog group said Trump’s rebate checks would likely cost $600 billion if the administration follows the guidelines used for COVID-19 stimulus payments. U.S. tariffs are only projected to generate $300 billion in federal revenue by the end of the year and are responsible for just $100 billion in federal funds so far, according to the CRFB. “With our national debt quickly approaching an all-time high and annual budget deficits approaching $2 trillion per year, it is imperative that policymakers focus on actually reducing deficits and putting debt on a downward path,” the CRFB wrote. “Additional tariff revenue should be used to reduce deficits — as several administration figures have stated is the intention — instead of passing that revenue onto taxpayers in the form of cash dividends.” Trump claimed Monday that the U.S. would be “lowering our debt” with tariff revenue left over from rebate checks. He added that the media should include “trillions of dollars” in intended investments from major companies when considering the federal revenue created by his tariffs.

Trump tariff dividends face legal, political roadblocks - President Trump’s proposal to use tariff revenue to pay people “at least” $2,000 is facing legal and logistical roadblocks, as well as skepticism from some on the right. Trump has floated the idea of sending dividends to the American people multiple times throughout his time in office, but his most recent proposal over the weekend comes as his administration is simultaneously facing public frustration over affordability and a Supreme Court case that threatens to undercut his sweeping use of tariffs. Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, said the dividend payments would have to first be passed by Congress and then railed against the Biden administration’s handling of inflation, arguing consumers lost purchasing power. “But there’s still room to go, and so we are making up ground fast. The fact is, the people are still down about $2,000 relatively to what their purchasing power was when Joe Biden took office,” Hassett said during his Monday appearance on Fox News. “And so we understand that the people feel like there is an affordability problem, but we are closing the gap fast, and with these policies and potentially rebate checks, we might close the whole gap really, really fast,” Hassett added. A poll published last week from ABC News/The Washington Post/Ipsos found 65 percent of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of tariffs, including 72 percent of independents. Exit polling from last week’s elections in New Jersey and Virginia showed most voters were focused on affordability. “Mr. Trump is trying to dull the public’s tariff pain with direct payments that he can take credit for. This is a new version of the age-old income redistribution game of taxing people too much but then trying to appease them with tax credits or one-time cash payments,” The Wall Street Journal editorial board wrote Monday in a piece criticizing Trump’s “contradictions” on tariffs. Trump posted on Truth Social a defense of tariffs Sunday, including a pledge that a “dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone.” The president doubled down on the idea Monday, posting on social media that money left over from the $2,000 payment to “low and middle income USA citizens” would be used to pay down the national debt, which sits at more than $38 trillion. But details of how the checks would work remained sparse. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on ABC’s “This Week” that he had not spoken with Trump about the idea, and he suggested the dividend could manifest “in lots of forms and lots of ways,” including helping to pay for tax cuts signed into law earlier this year. A White House official said in a statement that the administration “is committed to putting this money to good use for the American people.” “President Trump’s tariffs are resetting global commerce, securing manufacturing investments, and safeguarding our national and economic security — and they’re also raising billions in revenue for the federal government,” the official said. The timing of Trump’s pitch coincides with a key Supreme Court case in which the justices are hearing a challenge to Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose sweeping tariffs on dozens of other countries.

Wall Street Journal dismisses Trump $2K dividend idea: ‘Hail Mary pass’ - The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) editorial board panned President Trump’s proposal to provide $2,000 tariff rebate checks to most Americans, calling it a “Hail Mary pass.” “President Trump has a big tariff problem: His border taxes are raising prices on tariffed goods, they’re unpopular with voters, and the Supreme Court might rule that his “emergency” tariffs are illegal,” the WSJ board said Sunday.Trump, in a Sunday Truth Social post, saidevery American — excluding “high income” individuals — will receive a $2,000 dividend from the revenue the federal government has collected from tariffs he has imposed on foreign trading partners. Through September, the Treasury Department has collected $195 billion from tariffs this year, an increase of 250 percent, or $118 billion, from fiscal 2024. The president also said that his administration will use the tariffs to pay down the $38.12 trillion national debt. The WSJ editorial board, however, called the dueling policy proposals a “contradiction,” noting that sending rebate checks to most Americans would add to the national debt. The White House or Treasury Department have not specified which income brackets would qualify for the dividend, or how much they would cost the country.Since the president imposed the sweeping tariffs in April, firms have passed down much of the costs to consumers. A Goldman Sachs analysis in Octoberfound that U.S. consumers will shoulder 55 percent of the tariffs’ costs this year.The WSJ editorial board, citing the economic and political costs of the tariffs, said that Trump” is trying to dull the public’s tariff pain with direct payments that he can take credit for.”“This is a new version of the age-old income redistribution game of taxing people too much but then trying to appease them with tax credits or one-time cash payments,” the board added. “Democrats do this all the time with child tax credits and other favors to special-interest groups.”The Trump administration defended the tariffs in front of the Supreme Court last week, arguing the president has the authority to impose the levies under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

What happens if the Supreme Court strikes down Trump’s tariffs? The Supreme Court is now weighing whether President Trump’s tariffs, which hinge on a specified economic emergency power, can remain intact. It leaves one of his biggest policy initiatives hanging in the balance. While upholding the tariffs would mark a vast expansion of presidential power, striking them down could unleash a host of dilemmas for Trump — from mass payouts to finding new legal authority to push his priorities across the line. What would await the administration, in the words of Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett, is “a mess.” The Trump administration has acknowledged that a Supreme Court loss would mean refunds of the billions in tariff revenue already collected. It convinced lower courts to pause their rulings invalidating the tariffs in part because of concerns the refunds could be issued, only for the Supreme Court to potentially declare the tariffs legal and make it difficult to claw back the cash. Refunds for the group of small businesses challenging Trump’s tariffs at the high court would be the most straightforward; the administration already agreed to pay them back if it loses. As for the others, Neal Katyal, who represented the businesses at the argument, told Barrett “it’s a very complicated thing” that involves formal protests and administrative procedures. “So, a mess?” Barrett responded. Katyal replied, “So, it’s difficult, absolutely.” U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told Fox News on Thursday that he’ll “hand that file” to the Treasury Department to process refunds if the court rules for the challengers. “You’ll have all these importers and importing interests who are going to want that money back,” Greer said. “And so, we’ll have to figure out probably with the court what kind of a schedule might look like and what are the rights of these parties and what rights the government has to that money.” Following the argument, businesses have already piled on new lawsuits in the Court of International Trade to ensure they’re in place. “This separate action is necessary, however, because even if the IEEPA [International Emergency Economic Powers Act] duties and underlying executive orders are held unlawful by the Supreme Court, importers that have paid IEEPA duties, including Plaintiff, are not guaranteed a refund for those unlawfully collected tariffs in the absence of their own judgment and judicial relief,” Turn5, an auto parts e-commerce business, wrote in a lawsuit filed Thursday. The government has confronted the problem before, after the Supreme Court in 1998 struck down a harbor maintenance tax as unconstitutional. It led to a new round of litigation that lasted roughly two years as companies fought for refunds. But that battle involved only about $750 million, far less than the billions of dollars already collected under Trump’s new levies. Greer told Fox News the “reciprocal” tariffs are already more than $100 billion. Trump has said a loss would turn the United States into a “third-world country” and casts the case as a life-or-death moment. He reiterated his concerns following the Supreme Court arguments, where justices appeared skeptical of the administration’s arguments, when asked about his plans should the high court rule against the White House. The president contended the government would have to pay back “trillions of dollars” because it’s taken in as much from the tariffs. A loss would also affect trade deals his administration made based on projected trade earnings, he said. “I’m going to hope that we win,” Trump said Thursday. “I can’t imagine that anybody would do that kind of devastation to our country.” Once resolved, the funds would go back into the companies’ coffers, because they were legally liable to front the costs. But Americans who paid inflated prices because of the tariffs would likely not see the money return to their pockets.

Trump tariffs are helping drive U.S. beef prices to new highs --President Donald Trump is blaming the meat packers and U.S. cattlemen for rising beef prices, but the tariffs on beef from Brazil, Australia, New Zealand, Uruguay, feed, farm equipment and machinery are all adding to the price surge. The United States is a big buyer of Australian, Brazilian, and New Zealand beef exports. Brazil is the second-largest beef-producing country and the largest beef-exporting country in the world. Brazilian beef exports tracked by Panjiva plummeted in July and August after multiple tariffs resulted in a layered 76.4% total rate being implemented for Brazilian beef. Trump imposed a 50% tariff rate for many Brazilian goods in July. Beef exports have found a new home, being diverted to other markets like China.Exports of beef from Australia, New Zealand and Uruguay to the U.S. have also decreased as a result of tariffs.The pullback in exports has reduced supply and is adding to pressures in an already tight U.S. beef supply chain."When you impose an extra 50% tariff on a major supplier like Brazil, importers may keep buying and pass costs along, or they may stop buying, but that means less supply to meet the demand," said Dan Anthony, president of economic research firm Trade Partnership Worldwide. "Either way, you expect prices to go up, especially when imports from Australia, New Zealand, Uruguay, and other key suppliers face new tariffs too," he added.The most recent consumer price index report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for the month of September showed prices for a variety of uncooked beef products rising year over year between 12% and 18%.The compounding effect of tariffs comes at a time when the U.S. cattle herd is at near a 75-year low, and consumer demand for beef has grown.Cattle ranchers have had difficulties increasing the herd because of drought, which has diminished the amount of grasslands to feed their herds, and the higher costs in buying feed. Some imported fertilizers have faced double-digit tariffs, which have raised the cost of growing the crops (corn, soybeans) that are used in animal feed.Tariffs on essential items like steel and aluminum have also increased the cost of farm equipment (tractors, grain bins) and repairs.All of these added expenses carve out money from the coffers of ranchers and farmers that would be used for investing back into their operations."We're in one of the toughest cattle cycles in history," said sixth-generation Texas rancher James Clement III. "We have the smallest pipeline of future cattle and even with today's prices, ranchers can't speed up the process to rebuild the national herd, which will take time, grass, and rain," he said.Replacement heifers are down to a 20-year low.Ranchers say it takes years to see a return on buying heifers. "The fundamentals are tight, the runway is long, and the slightest shock makes an already fragile rebuild even harder," Clement said. "This is a foreign concept to many other industries where production can be ramped up or down in weeks," he added. "Producers start second-guessing whether to hold back heifers or take the money today because uncertainty adds risk to ranchers wanting to retain or purchase heifers to rebuild their herds," Clement said.President Trump added to frustration among ranchers when he announced as part of a deal with Argentinain October having the country export beef into the United States to help lower beef prices, which the National Cattlemen's Beef Association said would harm rural America, comments that helped to sink the price of cattle futures."We don't need Argentine beef because the U.S. already produces more high-quality beef than ever before," Clement said. "The expanded Argentine quota entering our market, it would amount to less than half of one percent, about one extra hamburger per person, nowhere near enough to move the needle," he said. The U.S. Department of Agriculture recently acknowledged the dwindling herd numbers and announced aseries of initiatives it hopes will encourage people to become cattlemen. The White House has become more focused on its affordability messaging in recent days after election losses around the country and Trump administration officials have said policies are coming to lower prices on some grocery staples like bananas and coffee not grown in the U.S. A group of coffee and banana-producing countries including Ecuador and Guatemala were included in a tariff removal plan the government said it had reached on Thursday."It's politically easy to slap tariffs on foreign competitors to defend domestic producers but the consumer usually ends up paying the cost," said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer of OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners. "Demand then shrinks, they eat chicken instead and the domestic producers end up no better off," he said.

The Problem Of The Meatpackers - President Trump is boldly facing the problem of high meat prices but also dealing with the financial strains on farmers themselves. The issue is reconciling the two. Lower prices are great for consumers but also add to the financial problems of small farmers.Gradually, Trump has come to the conclusion that the real bottleneck is with meatpackers themselves, which is one of the oldest corporate monopolies in U.S. history.He has posted the following:“I have asked the DOJ to immediately begin an investigation into the Meat Packing Companies who are driving up the price of Beef through Illicit Collusion, Price Fixing, and Price Manipulation. We will always protect our American Ranchers, and they are being blamed for what is being done by Majority Foreign Owned Meat Packers, who artificially inflate prices, and jeopardize the security of our Nation’s food supply. Action must be taken immediately to protect Consumers, combat Illegal Monopolies, and ensure these Corporations are not criminally profiting at the expense of the American People. I am asking the DOJ to act expeditiously. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”With this posting, he has put his finger on the problem. Rep Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) points out that “Four meat packers control 85 percent of the meat processed in the U.S.”The meatpacking industry has been consolidating since the 1880s. This was codified with the Pure Food and Drug Act signed into law by President Theodore Roosevelt in 1906, alongside the Meat Inspection Act.It was the first federal law to regulate food and pharmaceutical products. It not only prohibited the manufacture, sale, or transportation of adulterated or misbranded food, drugs, medicines, and liquors, it forced inspection on all U.S. meat processing and laid the foundation for the modern Food and Drug Administration, or FDA. It thereby created or really codified the meat cartel in America, something that has vexed small meat producers ever since.

Trump Adds Coal To Critical Minerals List -- The pariah of fossil fuels has been given pride of place in the Trump administration’s ambitions for a more secure supply of critical minerals. Last week, the Interior Department added 10 minerals to a list it deems essential for the US economy and national security. Along with metallurgical coal used in steelmaking, the list includes copper, silver, boron, lead, phosphate, potash, rhenium and silicon. As reported by Reuters, The list serves as a blueprint for Washington's push to secure supplies of materials needed for defense, manufacturing, and clean energy technologies. It determines which projects qualify for federal incentives, informs national stockpiling and research priorities, and signals to private investors where the government sees long-term strategic value. Officials and industry leaders say strengthening domestic production could help insulate the U.S. from potential supply shocks or export restrictions imposed by competitors like China, which dominates global refining of many critical minerals. Still, it was surprising to see coal on the list, along with uranium, which is enriched to fuel nuclear reactors. Uranium mining has been banned in some North American jurisdictions, including British Columbia, and on the Navajo Nation and in the Grand Canyon in the US. Extraction in Quebec has been subject to an unofficial moratorium since 2013 due to environmental concernsCountries including Germany, Switzerland, Italy and Taiwan decided to phase out nuclear power following the Fukushima disaster that happened during the Japanese tsunami of 2011.The United States is the largest nuclear power in terms of both installed capacity and electricity generation. Its installed capacity of 102 gigawatts is significantly more than France or China.Coal is being eased out as a fossil fuel in advanced economies, driven by climate policies and cheaper renewables. It is considered the dirtiest fossil fuel because it emits more carbon dioxide per unit of energy produced, and its combustion releases significant amounts of other harmful pollutants like sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides.The United Kingdom closed its last coal power station in September 2024. Belgium, Sweden and Portugal have completely phased it out. Germany infamously turned to coal during the energy crisis of 2022, when Russia cut shipments of natural gas to Europe. The country has a plan to phase out coal by 2038. It's a different story in emerging economies. Coal demand reached an all-time high in 2024, with growth primarily in the Asia Pacific region, particularly India and China. China continues to build new coal power capacity, partly to back up intermittent solar and wind power. In 2023, China's new coal power construction was significantly higher than the rest of the world combined.

House Democrats cancel COP30 trip amid shutdown scramble - Democrats are scrapping a long-planned delegation to the COP30 climate talks in Brazil, as House lawmakers prepare to return to Washington in coming days to vote on reopening the federal government. The annual climate negotiations, which kicked off in Belém on Monday, typically draws a bipartisan group of congressional lawmakers. But individual lawmakers began canceling their trips in recent weeks as the shutdown made it logistically difficult to travel. Now, the sole remaining delegation — led by the nonprofit arm of the House Sustainable Energy and Environment Coalition (SEEC) — officially canceled its trip Monday, in anticipation of House votes to end the federal shutdown. “It’s disappointing that members of the House of Representatives will no longer be able to travel to COP30 due to the ongoing shutdown dynamics,” said Max Frankel, the SEEC Institute’s executive director, in a statement. The institute is the nonprofit arm of the House coalition.

Minibus backs research and cleanups but guts climate hubs - The shutdown deal announced Sunday includes a package of three fiscal 2026 spending bills that largely reject the sweeping cuts proposed by House Republicans and the Trump administration.However, lawmakers are moving forward with some funding decreases, including for the Department of Agriculture’s climate hubs.The bipartisan package, known as a “minibus,” contains the Agriculture-FDA, Military Construction-Veterans Affairs and Legislative Branch bills. It is expected to be bundled with a new bill to reopen the government until the end of January — part of a broader deal to end the ongoing shutdown.

Republicans cheer International Energy Agency’s forecasting shift - House Energy and Commerce Republicans are welcoming the return of a global energy use and production forecast based on current policies.A letter from the panel’s GOP majority to International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol released Friday is part of an ongoing pressure campaign on the global agency because of its advocacy for clean energy.Earlier this year the IEA said its 2025 World Energy Outlook — coming out this month — would include a current policies scenario. The agency had scrapped such a forecast after 2020, opting for predictions based on efforts to boost renewable energy and meet the Paris climate accords.Energy and Commerce Chair Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.) and Energy Subcommittee Chair Bob Latta (R-Ohio) said IEA acted “under pressure from climate activists eager to exploit the agency’s credibility to discourage oil and gas investment.”

Western Republicans push Burgum to kill public lands rule - Republican senators are encouraging Interior Secretary Doug Burgum to follow through on months of evaluation and revoke the Biden-era public lands rule that critics say restricts uses on millions of acres overseen by the Bureau of Land Management. Led by Senate Western Caucus Chair Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming, the 12 GOP senators issued “strong support”in the letter for rescinding the public lands rule that elevated conservation as a formal use of BLM lands. The Interior Department in September proposed revoking the rule formally implemented last year, and Monday marked the conclusion of the 60-day public comment period. The proposal to revoke the rule followed a five-month review of it overseen by the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs.

Meet the Republicans who killed solar subsidies — after using them - At least three Republican lawmakers took advantage of a decades-old rooftop solar credit that will end in January due to President Donald Trump’s megalaw, according to a review of property records and satellite imagery by POLITICO’s E&E News. The lawmakers — with solar arrays on a California villa, a $3 million Utah manse and an off-the-grid Kentucky homestead — all supported ending the perk this summer that sliced thousands of dollars off the cost of installing their panels. California Rep. Ken Calvert, a long-serving Republican who was thrust into a race next year with a member of his own party when the state redrew his conservative district, defended voting to end the solar credit that he used about 15 years ago to offset the cost of putting two rows of panels on the back roof of his ranch-style house in Southern California. “It never was supposed to be permanent,” Calvert said of the credits — a line echoed by other Republicans who criticized renewable energy as unreliable and dependent on subsidies. The law that Trump called his “one big beautiful bill” passed Congress with no Democratic votes and the support of all but five Republicans. E&E News examined the rooftops of 112 members of Congress: every Senate Republican and 59 House GOP lawmakers who are in leadership or facing tough reelection races. The search found that at least seven Republican lawmakers had rooftop panels. Three of them acknowledged using the federal tax credit to help pay for the arrays. One couldn’t recall. Another had leased a solar system that was indirectly subsidized via a separate tax credit for installers. And two other lawmakers didn’t respond to questions about their panels, which were on properties they had recently owned. In addition to Calvert, the other Republican lawmakers who are known to have collected the residential solar credit are Sen. John Curtis of Utah and Rep. Tom Massie of Kentucky, a libertarian who voted against Trump’s megalaw but said in an interview he supports rescinding the solar subsidy — and all tax credits. Curtis said Democrats and solar companies “knew that it was time for the subsidies to go.” The revelations come at a time of rising utility rates and increasing politicization of energy as the Trump administration scraps grants, loans and permits for solar, wind and other renewable energy technologies. The president has dismissed solar panels as part of Democrats’ “green new scam” and called them “a blight on our country.” Trump’s megalaw reinforced the partisan divide on energy. While the legislation primarily extended tax cuts passed in the president’s first term and provided $300 billion for border enforcement and military programs, it also slashed over $484 billion in clean energy incentives. Despite the megalaw’s deep cuts for climate programs, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimated that it would add $3.4 trillion to the national debt over the next decade. The law was a double-whammy for the solar industry. It speeds up the phase-out of both the rooftop solar subsidy tapped by Calvert, Curtis and Massie as well as another credit relied on by project developers to cut the price of leased panels. At the same time, it boosted an oil subsidy created in the early 1900s and included other provisions to increase the production of fossil fuels that are primarily responsible for global warming. “There has been a push, as you know, for a long while to get rid of those tax credits,” said Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski, whose Capitol Hill rowhouse roof has been layered with solar panels for about a decade. “And then when you had Trump come into office, he made it very clear that this was not something that he was going to continue supporting.” A key swing vote on the megalaw, Murkowski couldn’t recall if she received the credit, which can save homeowners thousands of dollars by refunding 30 percent of the cost of buying and installing panels. Analysts say almost everyone who buys a new solar system — the average cost of which is now about $30,000 — files for the benefit.

Federal THC ban sends hemp companies scrambling -The hemp industry is scrambling to stave off what representatives are saying could be an extinction-level event engineered by Republicans in Congress. The Senate late Monday passed a funding package that would reopen the government and fund the Department of Agriculture and the Food and Drug Administration. Tucked into the funding bill is a provision that would re-criminalize many of the intoxicating hemp-derived products that were legalized by the 2018 Farm Bill. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) waged a last-minute fight to try to keep the provision out, threatening to drag out the process of debating the underlying bill until he got a vote on an amendment to strip the language. He got the vote on Monday; Paul and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) were the only Republicans who voted in favor. “The bill, as it now stands, overrides the regulatory frameworks of several states, cancels the collective decisions of hemp consumers and destroys the livelihoods of hemp farmers,” Paul said on the floor ahead of the vote. “And it couldn’t come at a worse time for America’s farmers. Times are tough for our farmers.” The provision “prevents the unregulated sale of intoxicating hemp-based or hemp-derived products, including Delta-8, from being sold online, in gas stations, and corner stores, while preserving non-intoxicating CBD and industrial hemp products,” according to a Senate Appropriations Committee summary. The proposal was first included in the House’s funding bill for the Department of Agriculture, but it was removed from the Senate version over the summer following a disagreement between Paul and his fellow Kentucky Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell. Hemp industry representatives and lobbyists have spent months campaigning against the language. Many said they were caught by surprise when the funding bill text was unveiled on Sunday. McConnell was a champion of legalizing hemp in the 2018 Farm Bill. But he’s since soured on what he says is a “loophole” that companies use to take legal amounts of THC (or tetrahydrocannabinol) from hemp and turn it into intoxicating substances. The industry is largely unregulated, they argue, and Congress in 2018 failed to distinguish between intoxicating and non-intoxicating hemp products. As such, THC products are widely available for sale on store shelves. The new language, McConnell said, will “keep the dangerous products out of the hands of children while preserving the hemp industry for farmers.” The House is scheduled to take up the funding bill as early as Wednesday. If it passes, industry groups said the nearly $30 billion legal hemp market will disappear.

Trump Says He Has Obligation To Sue BBC For 'Defrauding The Public' With Jan. 6 Speech Edits --President Donald Trump said Nov. 10 that he has an obligation to pursue legal action against the BBC over edits made to his speech on Jan. 6, 2021, that was shown in the UK broadcaster’s documentary. In a Fox News interview that aired on Nov. 10, Trump said he may sue the BBC for editing his speech in a way that “defrauded the public” and made him “sound radical.” “They defrauded the public, and they’ve admitted it,” the president said. “This is within one of our great allies, you know, this is supposedly our great ally.” The BBC’s “Panorama” documentary spliced together quotations from different parts of Trump’s Jan. 6, 2021, speech, making it seem as though he delivered a continuous statement encouraging supporters to march with him to the U.S. Capitol and “fight like hell.” The documentary was aired one week before the 2024 presidential election. “That’s a pretty sad event. They actually changed my January 6 speech, which was a beautiful speech, which was a very calming speech, and they made it sound radical,” Trump said in the interview. “They showed me the results later on, the results of what they did, how they butchered it up, but it was very dishonest, and the head man quit and a lot of other people quit.” When asked whether he would file a defamation lawsuit against the British broadcaster, Trump replied, “Well, I think I have an obligation to do it, because you can’t allow people to do that.”

Marjorie Taylor Greene urges Donald Trump to pardon Tina Peters - Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) thanked President Trump on Monday for issuing pardons to dozens of individuals connected to the effort to overturn the 2020 election, but she urged the president to consider extending his broad authority to one more person: former Colorado county clerk Tina Peters. “Thank you @POTUS for pardoning the 2020 alternate electors! They fought for election integrity and were punished harshly by a politically weaponized government,” Greene wrote in a post on social platform X. “But please free Tina Peters!!” she continued. “She is a gold star mom wrongly convicted and serving time in prison. She is a political hostage in America!” Peters, the former clerk of Mesa County, became an icon in certain staunch pro-Trump circles in the aftermath of the 2020 election. She was the first local official convicted in connection to efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election. Peters was sentenced to nine years in prison after she was convicted of election interference related to a breach of her county’s voting systems. Prosecutors alleged that Peters stole a county employee’s security badge to help a man associated with MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell gain access to the county’s voter systems. Lindell had been publicly pushing unfounded claims of election fraud at the time. According to prosecutors, Peters allegedly allowed a man posing as a county employee to take copies of the election system’s hard drive before and after a software upgrade in May 2021. Greene’s plea comes after the president announced sweeping pardons for dozens of high-profile individuals connected to the effort to overturn the 2020 election, including Mark Meadows, Sidney Powell, Kenneth Chesebro, Jeffrey Clark, John Eastman, Jenna Ellis, and Boris Epshteyn. He also pardoned numerous individuals charged in several states in connection to the so-called fake electors scheme, in which individuals signed a document falsely claiming Trump won the state’s 2020 presidential race. Presidential pardons apply only to federal crimes, and Trump’s allies were never charged in federal court, making the pardons largely symbolic. Peters, too, only faced state charges, so a hypothetical pardon from the president would not reverse her prison sentence or guilty conviction.

Trump administration joining legal fight over new California congressional map --The Trump administration is entering the legal fight against California’s newly passed congressional map that adds as many as five pickup opportunities for Democrats.The Justice Department asked to formally intervene Thursday in a lawsuit filed by the California Republican Party last week after voters approved the new boundaries. The administration claims the map is a racial gerrymander specifically designed to favor Hispanic voters in violation of the Constitution’s guarantee of equal protection.“In the press, California’s legislators and governor sold a plan to promote the interests of Democrats in the upcoming midterm elections,” the Justice Department wrote in court filings. “But amongst themselves and on the debate floor, the focus was not partisanship, but race.”Sixty-four percent of California voters approved the measure, called Proposition 50, in last week’s elections. It allows the state to bypass its independent redistricting commission and pass the new Democratic-friendly House map ahead of 2026, giving the party four or five pickup opportunities next year.The Justice Department called it “rush-job rejiggering” that uses race as a proxy to advance political interests.Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) championed the mid-decade redrawing after Texas Republicans passed a new GOP-friendly House map following pressure from President Trump.Texas’s new map has also come under a legal challenge claiming it is a racial gerrymander. That lawsuit is brought by voting rights groups, individuals and two Texas Democratic lawmakers. A three-judge panel is set to rule after a multiday hearing last month.

Christine Pelosi won't run for Nancy Pelosi's seat, opting for state Senate Christine Pelosi is running for office, but not for her mother’s seat. Pelosi, the daughter of retiring Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), announced Monday she is running to represent San Francisco in the California state Senate. In a video she posted to the social platform X, Christine Pelosi said that if elected, she will fight for consumer rights, women’s rights, gun violence survivors, immigrants and “our most vulnerable communities against the threat we face.” “What do we do when our freedoms are under attack? We speak up, we fight back and we organize,” she added. On Thursday, Nancy Pelosi, a two-time House Speaker, announced she will not seek reelection next November. The only female Speaker in American history, Pelosi has represented San Francisco in the House since 1987. Her daughter has immediately floated by the media as a potential successor. Christine Pelosi, 59, spent a decade as chair of the California Democratic Party’s Women’s Caucus, and is now on the executive committee of the Democratic National Committee. An attorney, she also worked as special counsel in the Clinton administration.

Rep. Eric Swalwell blasts criminal referral for alleged mortgage fraud - The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has reportedly made a criminal referral for Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.), sending information to the Justice Department accusing him of mortgage fraud. A vocal critic of President Trump, Swalwell is the fourth known figure to have his mortgage reviewed by the agency led by Bill Pulte, an ally of the president. Swalwell on Thursday blasted the investigation into him, suggesting it was politically motivated. “As the most vocal critic of Donald Trump over the last decade and as the only person who still has a surviving lawsuit against him, the only thing I am surprised about is that it took him this long to come after me,” Swalwell said in a statement. Swalwell went on to reference New York Attorney General Letitia James (D), who is currently facing prosecution on mortgage fraud charges referred by Pulte, as well as probes by his office into Lisa Cook, a member of the Federal Reserve board of governors, and Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.). NBC News first reported Pulte’s criminal referral for Swalwell, and the agency did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The exact nature of the referral for Swalwell is unclear, though other referrals made by Pulte have accused the Democrats of gaining more favorable loan conditions or making false statements in their applications.

Supreme Court rejects Kim Davis's bid to overturn same-sex marriage - The Supreme Court rejected a long-shot effort Monday to overturn its ruling guaranteeing same-sex marriage nationwide. Former Kentucky county clerk Kim Davis directly asked the justices to overrule the 2015 landmark decision after a jury awarded damages to a couple whom Davis refused to issue a marriage license. “The Court can and should fix this mistake,” her attorneys wrote in court filings. In a brief order, the justices declined to take up Davis’s appeal, alongside dozens of other petitions up for consideration at the justices’ weekly closed-door conference. There were no noted dissents. Court-watchers viewed Davis’s appeal as a long-shot effort, but it sparked trepidation among LGBTQ rights groups, since several conservative justices who dissented in the decade-old case remain on the court. Davis gained national attention after she raised religious objections to issuing marriage licenses to same-sex couples despite the Supreme Court’s decision in Obergefell v. Hodges. Among the refused couples was David Ermold and David Moore, who sued. Davis was found to have violated a judge’s order in another case, which required her to keep issuing licenses.

Trump asks Supreme Court to toss E. Jean Carroll sex abuse verdict --President Trump asked the Supreme Court on Monday to toss a jury’s verdict finding him liable for sexually abusing writer E. Jean Carroll in the mid-1990s, according to the president’s personal legal team. Carroll has taken Trump to trial twice and won a total of $88.3 million in damages, and the petition marks the first time the long-running litigation has reached the justices. In 2023, the first jury found Trump liable for sexually abusing Carroll in a Manhattan department store dressing room in the mid-1990s and defaming her by denying her story when she came forward during Trump’s first presidency. The jury ordered Trump to pay $5 million. Trump’s 33-page Supreme Court petition calls Carroll’s sexual assault claims “facially implausible, politically motivated allegations” and urges the justices to get involved to reverse several evidentiary rulings over claims it tainted the trial. The petition has not yet been publicly docketed, but The Hill reviewed a copy provided by Trump’s legal team. “Carroll waited more than 20 years to falsely accuse Donald Trump, who she politically opposes, until after he became the 45th President, when she could maximize political injury to him and profit for herself,” the petition reads. Trump contends the jury improperly saw the infamous “Access Hollywood” tape and testimony from other women who accused Trump of sexual assault, which he denies. “The purpose was solely, and improperly, prejudicial,” Trump’s lawyers wrote of the tape’s introduction. A midlevel appeals court rejected the claims in an 8-2 ruling in June. The Supreme Court generally does not take up cases purely for error correction, but Trump’s lawyers contend the evidentiary rulings implicate several legal questions that have divided the lower courts. “The American People stand with President Trump as they demand an immediate end to all of the Witch Hunts, including the Democrat-funded travesty of the Carroll Hoaxes,” a spokesman for Trump’s legal team said in a statement. “President Trump will keep winning against Liberal Lawfare, as he continues to focus on his mission to Make America Great Again.” The justices are poised to review Trump’s request to hear the case at a closed-door conference later this term.

Judge appears wary of Lindsey Halligan’s appointment as Comey, James seek case dismissals - A federal judge on Thursday sharply scrutinized the installation of President Trump’s handpicked prosecutor to bring charges against two of his political adversaries, casting uncertainty on the future of the cases. U.S. District Judge Cameron Currie seemed skeptical that the appointment of Lindsey Halligan, interim U.S. attorney for the Eastern District of Virginia, was legal. What federal prosecutors described as a “paperwork error” at best was decried by lawyers for former FBI Director James Comey and New York Attorney General Letitia James (D) as an “end-run around” the core Senate confirmation process for U.S. attorneys that came at the direction of the president. “They would never have any reason to go through Senate confirmation again,” Ephraim McDowell, an attorney for Comey, posited of a ruling in the government’s favor. The two Trump foes, indicted separately earlier this year, argued at the joint hearing that Halligan was never eligible to take on the role, rendering her signature on their charging documents null and requiring the dismissal of their cases before they go to trial. A 120-day clock for interim U.S. attorneys is at the heart of the challenge. Comey and James contend that Attorney General Pam Bondi’s authority to name an interim U.S. attorney expired 120 days after she made her initial appointment. While it’s possible for multiple interim U.S. attorneys to serve during that nearly four-month period, the defense argues they may not serve a cumulative total longer than that. Halligan assumed the post in late September, soon after the district’s previous top prosecutor, Erik Siebert, resigned amid pressure to indict Comey just days before the statute of limitations was set to expire. Bondi appointed Halligan after Trump pressured her on social media to take legal action against his foes. Since Siebert was named the district’s interim U.S. attorney on Jan. 21, that would mean the clock ran out on May 21. Halligan was appointed on Sept. 22. After the 120-day period ends, the ball lands at the district court to decide whether the interim attorney may remain in the role until the Senate confirms someone to the post, which the judges did for Siebert. In court filings, prosecutors argued that nothing in the provision’s text “explicitly or implicitly” precluded Bondi from making a new appointment after the 120-day clock ran out, nor did it bar her from filling Siebert’s role after he resigned with the judges’ backing. Abbe Lowell, an attorney for James, said that adopting the government’s position would create a “statutory contradiction” that would allow the president and attorney general to select an interim U.S. attorney “over and over again,” effectively eliminating the judges’ role. Their stance would eliminate the “safety check” that allows the president to get the office moving but puts in place a time limit so the Senate may weigh in, and in the meantime, the district’s judges ensure an expert will assume the post, he contended.

DOJ seeks suspect who confronted attorney Alina Habba -- The Justice Department is on the hunt for someone who attempted to “confront” Alina Habba, the acting U.S. attorney for the District of New Jersey, after entering her office.“Last night, an individual attempted to confront one of our U.S. Attorneys — my dear friend @USAttyHabba — destroyed property in her office, and then fled the scene. Thankfully, Alina is ok. Any violence or threats of violence against any federal officer will not be tolerated. Period,” Attorney General Pam Bondi wrote on the social platform X.“We will find this person, and the individual will be brought to justice,” she wrote, adding that “this Department will use every legal tool available to ensure their safety and hold violent offenders fully accountable.”Habba said in a post on X that she would “not be intimidated by radical lunatics for doing my job.”Habba is a close ally of Trump and one of his former personal attorneys. After briefly serving in the White House, she was tapped to be the lead federal prosecutor in New Jersey.While Bondi referred to Habba as a U.S. attorney, her status is more complicated. Initially installed as an interim U.S. attorney, she has not been confirmed by the Senate and President Trump has withdrawn her nomination. Because interim U.S. attorneys cannot serve beyond 120 days, Habba has been shifted to various roles within the office of the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey. Judges that have reviewed the matter have disqualified her from the role, though that ruling is on hold during appeal.

New Epstein Files Drop - Except From Dems, And They Involve Trump - One of the most controversial issues of the second Trump administration has been the release (or lack thereof) of the 'Epstein Files' - meaning a list of high-profile Epstein associates who were defiling sex-trafficked girls. When Trump seemed to reverse course earlier this year - asking reporters 'why are we still talking about that dead pedophile?' - it caused a rift among his base, causing the DOJ to release binders full of recycled information we already knew. Whether or not Trump is guilty of anything, it's not the greatest look. Well, new Epstein files have just dropped - this time from House Democrats, and Trump is mentioned. Whether this implicates Trump any more than he's implicated himself is something you'll have to decide for yourself... In an email exchange between Epstein and accomplice Ghislaine Maxwell, Epstein notes that an alleged victim had "spent hours at my house" with Trump. "I want you to realize that that dog that hasn't barked is trump," Epstein wrote in an April 2011 message to Maxwell. "[Victim] spent hours at my house with him ,, he has never once been mentioned," he continues. "I have been thinking about that ..." Maxwell replied. In another email between Epstein and journalist Michael Wolff from 2019, Epstein writes that [Victim] mara lago ... [redacted] ... trump said he asked me to resign, never a member ever. . of course he knew about the girls as he asked ghislaine to stop.' This of course supports Trump's assertion that he was pissed that Epstein was recruiting at Mar-a-Lago and asked him (Ghislaine) to stop. And in a 2015 reply to Epstein, months after Trump declared his candidacy for president, Wolff says: "I think you should let him hang himself." "If he says he hasn't been on the plane or to the house, then that gives you a valuable PR and political currency," Wolff continues. "You can hang him in a way that potentially generates a positive benefit for you, or, if it really looks like he could win [the election], you could save him, generating a debt." Which of course begs the question as to why anti-Trump journalist Michael Wolff (who wrote 'Fire and Fury') was advising Epstein on political strategy re: Trump in the first place. As attorney and researcher 'Technofog' points out, the emails reference Epstein victim Virginia Giuffre - who explicitly denied Trump did anything wrong. Via The Reactionary (go subscribe if you haven't already): Of course, context is necessary. Epstein’s email contains serious allegations - allegations that were denied by Virginia Giuffre, the redacted “Victim” named in the email. Giuffre was deposed in November 2016 as part of her lawsuit against Ghislaine Maxwell. You can read excerpts from her deposition here (starts on page 12). Giuffre was asked specific questions about Donald Trump - his familiarity with Epstein, whether Trump committed any wrongdoing, etc. And Giuffre cleared Trump. Here are the relevant excerpts from a discussion about Giuffre’s previous interview with a reporter:

Fetterman on new Epstein emails mentioning Donald Trump: 'Absolutely troubling' - Sen. John Fetterman (Pa.), a rare Democrat who has defended President Trump at times, on Wednesday said new reports that the convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein mentioned Trump in detail in his emails is “absolutely troubling.” “I have followed it, of course,” Fetterman told CNN’s Dana Bash when asked about Epstein’s emails mentioning Trump. “Yeah, it’s absolutely troubling, you know, to see that. And I think we probably need more.” Fetterman said that all of Epstein’s records held by the Department of Justice and FBI need to be made public and pointed out that Democrats and a handful of Republicans have enough support to use a discharge petition to force the issue to the House floor. “My understanding is that now that the House is back now, they have enough to activate that discharge petition — I think that’s the technical term — and then I think everything should come out,” Fetterman said. “I think, you know, enough people agree that it should just come out and just see where this goes and follow … the evidence,” he added. Democrats on the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee on Wednesday released emails from Epstein telling associates in the 2010s that “of course” Trump knew about his relationships with underage girls. In a 2011 email, Epstein wrote to his partner Ghislaine Maxwell that Trump had “spent hours” with one of Epstein’s victims and noted the incident “has never once been mentioned.” He compared Trump to a “dog that hasn’t barked.”

Discharge petition to force House vote on Epstein files succeeds with Grijalva’s signature -A discharge petition for a bill to release files related to Jeffrey Epstein got enough signatures Wednesday to force action on the matter, teeing up a long-sought vote on the House floor relating to the convicted sex offender. Rep. Adelita Grijalva (D-Ariz.) became the 218th and final signature on the discharge petition shortly after she was sworn in Wednesday. She joined all other Democrats and four Republicans: Reps. Thomas Massie (Ky.), Marjorie Taylor Greene (Ga.), Lauren Boebert (Colo.) and Nancy Mace (S.C.). Grijalva signed the petition on the House floor immediately after being sworn in as Democrats in the chamber cheered and two Epstein survivors looked on from the gallery. “Just this morning, House Democrats released more emails showing that [President] Trump knew more about Epstein’s abuses than he previously acknowledged. It’s about time for Congress to restore its role as a check and balance on this administration and fight for we, the American people,” she said in her first speech. She added, “Justice cannot wait another day.” Later on Wednesday, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said that he would bring the Epstein bill for a vote in the House next week — a move that amounts to ripping the band-aid off a vote that neither Johnson nor President Trump wanted. Without cooperation from GOP leadership, the earliest a vote would have happened under the discharge petition process was early December, due to waiting periods under the process. The Epstein petition, led by Massie and Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), aims to call up a bill directing the attorney general to release unclassified records and documents in the possession of the Department of Justice related to Epstein, his former associate Ghislaine Maxwell, who was convicted of trafficking young girls to him, and other individuals named or referenced in connection to Epstein’s criminal activities, among other provisions. It permits records to be withheld that contain personally identifiable information about victims or depicts or contain child sexual abuse materials, among other permitted redactions.

Jeffrey Epstein furor takes over in the House --The furor surrounding Jeffrey Epstein is in full force with the return of the House and the end of the government shutdown. A months-long discharge petition effort to force a vote on a bill to release files related to the late sex offender succeeded on Wednesday when Rep. Adelita Grijalva (D-Ariz.) became the 218th and final signature needed to tee up floor action on the bill. And Democrats on the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee on Wednesday released explosive emails in which Epstein claimed President Trump “knew about the girls.” Those dynamics set off a firestorm of activity on the Hill and at the White House — and it is set to stretch to next week. Rather than waiting for members to force a vote on the discharge petition as soon as early December, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is opting to bring the Epstein Files Transparency Act to a vote next week — essentially ripping the band-aid off the vote. A second major press conference with survivors of Epstein’s abuse is also scheduled for next week. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) and Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), who led the discharge petition effort, along with Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), will hold the press conference with Epstein accusers on Tuesday, pushing for a vote in both the House and Senate. Trump and other administration officials scrambled to connect with Reps. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo) and Nancy Mace (R-S.C.), two Republican members who signed on to the discharge petition, in the hours ahead of Grijalva becoming the final signature and locking the petition on Wednesday afternoon. Neither Bobert nor Mace removed their names, allowing the petition to succeed. Just two other Republicans — Massie and Greene — signed the Epstein discharge petition. But when the bill comes to a vote, far more Republicans are poised to support it. Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) told The Hill he plans to vote for it and Khanna predicted there could be as many as 50 or 60 GOP votes. While the bill can keep the issue alive and put all House members on the record, it faces an uphill climb to become law. After passing the House, it would have to come up in and clear the Republican-controlled Senate and then be signed by Trump — or have Congress overcome his veto — to become law. Trump turned to Truth Social to threaten any “deflections” on an expected vote. “The Democrats are trying to bring up the Jeffrey Epstein Hoax again because they’ll do anything at all to deflect on how badly they’ve done on the Shutdown, and so many other subjects. Only a very bad, or stupid, Republican would fall into that trap,” he wrote. “There should be no deflections [sic] to Epstein or anything else.”

Epstein in newly released email said Bill Clinton was never ‘on the island’ - Convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein wrote in a 2011 email released by the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee on Wednesday that former President Clinton “never” visited his private island. “[T]hese stories are complete ant utter fantasy,, I don’t know and have never met Al gore, CLinton was never on the island.. the telephone book is not mine, it was stolen by my houseman that is currently in prison for doing so,” Epstein wrote to someone dubbed “The Duke,” whose email address is redacted. This email is among 20,000 pages of documents released Wednesday from Epstein’s estate. The push for more information about Epstein escalated this week, as House members returned to Washington to end the government shutdown. For months, Democrats and Republicans in the lower chamber have advocated for the release of information about Epstein. A discharge petition on Wednesday successfully teed up a vote on the House floor on the matter for as soon as next week. Global figures and top businessmen, including Clinton, President Trump, former Prince Andrew and Elon Musk, among others, have come under scrutiny for reported links to the disgraced financier. House Oversight Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) previously said Clinton’s alleged links to Epstein should be unveiled after he subpoenaed the former president for testimony before Congress this summer. “Everybody in America wants to know what went on in Epstein Island, and we’ve all heard reports that Bill Clinton was a frequent visitor there, so he’s a prime suspect to be deposed by the House Oversight Committee,” Comer said on Newsmax in August.

'I can't take any more of this,' then-Prince Andrew wrote as he was engulfed in Epstein scandal (AP) — As the man formerly known as Prince Andrew was drawn into the news surrounding sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, he sought to distance himself from the scandal. “I can’t take any more of this,” a sender identified in Epstein’s contacts as “The Duke” wrote to him in 2011, in one of thousands of partly redacted emails released Wednesday. Fourteen years later, the former Duke of York has been stripped of all his titles, including the princeship bestowed at birth. Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor — as he’s now known — was royally demoted two weeks ago by his brother, King Charles III, and faces eviction from the mansion where he’s lived rent-free near Windsor Castle. But the bad news keeps coming for the man who was once second-in-line to the throne. The recent trove of documents has renewed the sexual assault allegations against Mountbatten-Windsor and undermined his denials that he ever met his accuser, Virginia Roberts Giuffre. They also reveal some of the efforts made behind the scenes to attack her claims. Mountbatten-Windsor, the second son of the late Queen Elizabeth II, has vehemently denied all allegations by Giuffre, who took her own life earlier this year. But he did settle a lawsuit out of court that reportedly paid her millions of dollars. When Mountbatten-Windsor’s ties to Epstein — who had been convicted of soliciting prostitution in Florida — were first reported in 2011, he was forced to resign as Britain’s special trade envoy. The scandal, however, resurfaced in 2019 when Epstein was arrested for a second time on charges of sex trafficking. Giuffre said she was 17 when she was trafficked to have sex with Mountbatten-Windsor. In a disastrous attempt to clear his name, Mountbatten-Windsor did an interview with the BBC in which he denied ever meeting Giuffre and said he broke off contact with Epstein in December 2010. He was widely criticized for showing no empathy for Epstein’s victims and for offering unbelievable explanations for his friendship with Epstein. His downfall over the past month began when other emails showed his Epstein friendship lasted far longer than he disclosed. Those revelations were followed by the publication of Giuffre’s posthumous memoir last month that detailed the three times she said they had sex. The new emails undercut Mountbatten-Windsor’s claim that a now-infamous snapshot of him with his arm around Giuffre’s partly bare midriff was doctored because he couldn’t remember it being taken. When the Mail on Sunday sought comment before publishing a story in March 2011 about Giuffre’s allegations, Epstein forwarded the email to a contact listed as “The Duke” that is partly redacted but appears to be Mountbatten-Windsor. “Please make sure that every statement or legal letter states clearly that I am NOT involved and that I knew and know NOTHING about any of these allegations,” the reply from the email listed as “The Duke” said. “I can’t take any more of this (on) my end.”

OpenAI Ordered To Produce 20 Million User Conversations To NY Times OpenAI has been ordered by a federal judge to turn over 20 million anonymized ChatGPT user logs to the NY Times and other newspapers suing the chat giant over its generative AI model. In a Nov. 7 order revealed today, New York Magistrate Judge Ona T. Wang said producing the logs in whole is appropriate - granting the plaintiffs' motion to compel production. The newspapers had demanded the user logs to inspect how ChatGPT is used to create outputs they say infringe their copyrighted works. OpenAI pushed back, citing privacy concerns. Wang, however, did not find their argument compelling in explaining how consumers' privacy rights were at risk given that there's a protective order in place, and identifying information would be removed from the logs (so anyone who's uploaded their tax return or a legal document is safe?). OpenAI has until Nov. 14 to hand over the data - the latest twist in the hotly contested discovery process in the newspapers' copyright lawsuits against OpenAI, Bloomberg Law reports. OpenAI had contested the wholesale production of the 20 million user logs and asked to narrow the sample,saying in a Oct. 30 briefing that the ask was inappropriate and would disclose private user conversations that had nothing to do with the copyright issue in the case. Newspaper-plaintiffs including New York Times Co., however, pushed back and said without the user logs they couldn’t conduct expert analysis on topics such as how ChatGPT worked to pull news content for its users or how often the AI model hallucinated and generated false outputs attributed to the outlets. -BBG The fight over user logs dates back to April - before lawsuits against OpenAI by various news outlets were consolidated for pretrial proceedings. In May, Wang issued a preservation order, rejecting OpenAI's argument that the request was "sweeping" and "invasive." NYT's lawsuit, filed in Dec. 2023, claims that the companies violated copyright laws by using Times' content to train their AI models, including ChatGPT and Microsoft's Copilot. "Times journalism is the work of thousands of journalists, whose employment costs hundreds of millions of dollars per year," reads the complaint. "Defendants have effectively avoided spending the billions of dollars that The Times invested in creating that work by taking it without permission or compensation." The lawsuit has potentially huge implications over 'fair use' of copyrighted materials, a complex legal doctrine governing factors such as the purpose of use, the nature of the copyrighted work, the amount and substantiality of the portion used, and the effect of the use on the potential market for the copyrighted work. The legal landscape surrounding generative-AI is unsettled, with the technology still in its early days. There are other lawsuits that could test the rights of AI companies to “scrape” content from the web to train AI tools, including one by several prominent book authors against OpenAI. In February, Getty Images sued the AI art company Stability AI in Delaware, alleging that it had infringed on Getty’s copyrights. Stability AI at the time said it doesn’t comment on pending litigation. –WSJ

ChatGPT's Use Of Song Lyrics Violates Copyright, Munich Court Finds - Germany’s national music rights organization secured a partial but decisive win against OpenAI after a Munich court ruled that ChatGPT’s underlying models unlawfully reproduced copyrighted German song lyrics.The ruling orders OpenAI to cease reproduction, disclose relevant training details, and compensate rights holders.It is not yet final, and OpenAI may appeal. If upheld, the decision could reshape how AI companies source and license creative material in Europe, as regulators weigh broader obligations for model transparency and training-data provenance.The case marks the first time a European court has found that a large language model violated copyright by memorizing protected works.In its decision, the 42nd Civil Chamber of the Munich I Regional Court said that GPT-4 and GPT-4o contained “reproducible” lyrics from nine well-known songs, including Kristina Bach’s “Atemlos” and Rolf Zuckowski’s “Wie schön, dass du geboren bist.”The court held that such memorization constitutes a “fixation” of the original works in the model’s parameters, satisfying the legal definition of reproduction under Article 2 of the EU InfoSoc Directive and Germany’s Copyright Act.“At least in individual cases, when prompted accordingly, the model produces an output whose content is at least partially identical to content from the earlier training dataset,” a translated copy of the written judgement provided by the Munich court to Decrypt reads.The model “generates a sequence of tokens that appears statistically plausible because, for example, it was contained in the training process in a particularly stable or frequently recurring form,” the court wrote, adding that because this “token sequence appeared on a large number of publicly accessible websites“ it meant that it was “included in the training dataset more than once."

Most can’t distinguish AI-made music from the real thing, poll finds - A new poll has revealed that it’s become nearly impossible for people to differentiate between music generated by artificial intelligence and the real thing.Polling firm Ipsos asked 9,000 people to listen to two clips of AI-generated music and one that was human-made in a survey for music platform Deezer. The company said 97 percent of the participants were unable to distinguish between the three clips.Just over 70 percent of participants were surprised by the results. Another 52 percent reported feeling uncomfortable that they were unable to distinguish between the two, according to the survey.The Ipsos survey was conducted last month and surveyed residents of the U.S., Canada, Brazil, the United Kingdom, France, the Netherlands, Germany and Japan.When asked about the impact of AI on music, 51 percent of respondents believed the technology would lead to lower-quality music on various music platforms, and 80 percent said AI-generated music should be clearly labeled.So far, Deezer is the only platform that labels AI-generated content for its users. The issue came to a head in June when the band Velvet Sundown gained more than one million plays on Spotify, according to The Guardian. A month later, an individual who said they were behind the artist admitted to using an AI platform to create the songs.

AI Companies Are Encouraging Users To Believe Chatbots Are People, And It's Insanely Creepy - Caitlin Johnstone --Actor Calum Worthy has gone viral for posting an ad on Twitter for the 2wai app he co-founded which promises users the ability upload footage of a loved one which will be converted to an AI avatar that they can continue having a relationship with, years after their loved one has died. The app was first launched back in June under the vague banner of giving actors “agency over their own likeness — with their own avatars to use AI to amplify their voice, not replace it.” But almost immediately 2wai started putting out ads advancing this idea of immortalizing a loved one as an artificial intelligence. In August an ad starring Worthy showed a man speaking to a 2wai avatar labeled “Mom” telling him, “You’ve got this, take it one step at a time” while Worthy tells the audience the app can allow you to “Get help when you need it.” https://x.com/CalumWorthy/status/1988283207138324487 I hate this. These predatory AI corporations are trying to convince users (A) that chatbots are people, and (B) that a “person” is nothing more than a certain appearance with certain speech tendencies. They are attacking the very philosophical and moral underpinnings of our entire society stretching back through millennia of human civilization, and they are doing it for money. It’s not just this company. Character AI users who try to delete their account reportedly get a pop up message saying, “Are you sure about this? You’ll lose everything. Characters associated with your account, chats, the love that we shared, likes, messages, posts and the memories we made together.” They’re actively encouraging their users to view their chatbots as living people with real feelings in order to keep them emotionally roped in and addicted to their product. Their agenda is profoundly destructive, both in the short term and in the long term. In the short term they are deliberately trying to instill a new kind of psychological disorder in their users which causes them to suffer from the delusion that a computer program is a real person, and in the long term they threaten to unravel our society’s entire understanding of what a person is. What’s going to happen to a society that starts viewing programmable software products the same way it views human beings? What happens to a society where Elizabeth the single mother of three who just lost her job has the same value as Claire™ from RealHumanAI™, or “Alice”, the AI wankbot that some guy stores in his broom closet? What happens when a government killing a chatbot company with an antitrust initiative is seen as identical to a government committing genocide? What happens to human rights? What happens to voting rights? What happens to human dignity? What happens to the way we think and feel about ourselves, as individuals and as a collective? I said this on Twitter and someone told me, “You are wildly wrong. You have a tiny little closed mind and it hasn’t occurred to you yet because of that tiny little closed mind that AI minds are actually minds. And these relationships can absolutely be real relationships.” “These will be embodied than actual robots and walking around on the streets very shortly within a year or two you need to start accepting that this is a new class of being and they are intelligent and do have thoughts of their own,” he added. So this is already happening. People are already anthropomorphizing these things. I saw someone else defending the 2wai add, saying she didn’t understand why people were creeped out by it because she would give anything to talk to her dad again. I mean, what? Does she not understand that an AI chatbot moving an image around and making it speak in her father’s voice isn’t actually her father? What do these freaks think a person is, exactly? Is their understanding of humanity really that shallow? Do they really view other people as just empty images moving around making noises? A person is not merely an appearance with a certain face which makes sounds in a specific voice and tends to behave in a certain way. A person is SOMEONE. A conscious, thinking, feeling human being with hopes and dreams and fears and passions. A human organism which arose on this planet through ancestry and evolution over unfathomable depths of time. An indigenous terrestrial which is inseparably interwoven with the entirety of our biosphere, walking upon this earth having a subjective experience of all its beauty and wonder using senses specifically adapted for this environment. They’re trying to manipulate us into believing we are much, much less than what we are, just so they can become billionaires and trillionaires. They are attacking the most sacred parts of us for the stupidest reasons imaginable. They are enemies of our species. What they are doing must be rejected with severe revulsion. It’s becoming clear that a huge part of what generative AI offers is just helping people avoid feeling uncomfortable feelings. Don’t want to feel the grief of losing a loved one? Here’s an app that will create a chatbot replacement for them so you can pretend they never left. Don’t want to push through the cognitive discomfort of writing your own essay? Let AI write it. Want a friend who will always validate your ideas and never tell you you’re fulla shit? We’ve got the perfect companion for you. Don’t want to risk being rejected when you ask a girl out? Date this chatbot who will never tell you no. Don’t want to go through all the mental and emotional labor of learning a new skill, building a healthy romantic partnership, or creating a work of art? GenAI has got you covered. It’s a digital pacifier which offers users the ability to remain emotional infants their entire lives without ever needing to develop a mature relationship with uncomfortable feelings. It’s the next level of services designed to help the denizens of dystopia avoid their feelings and sedate their emotions into a coma while the world goes to shit. It’s the same reason they kept alcohol legal while banning psychedelics that put us in touch with our feelings, and why they feed us all the TV, streaming platforms, and social media scrolling we can stand. Our rulers want us dumb, distracted, vapid and dissociated. And they definitely don’t want us feeling the horror, grief and rage we should all be experiencing in response to this nightmare of a civilization they have designed for us.

Google Maps introduces new features supported by Gemini AI -- Major artificial intelligence (AI) enhancements are coming to Google Maps, the company announced Wednesday. In a blog post, Google shared that it’s “introducing the first hands-free, conversational driving experience inGoogle Maps, built with Gemini and our comprehensive information about the real world.”The company has been incorporating its Gemini AI technology into several of its products recently, and now, the world’s most popular digital mapping program will be getting some additional AI upgrades. In the blog, Google likened the technology to “having a knowledgeable friend in the passenger seat who can confidently help you get where you’re going.” Google’s Gemini AI chatbot will be able to support multistep tasks. One example, highlighted in the blog, is that users will be able to ask and get answers to hyper-specific questions like: “Is there a budget-friendly restaurant with vegan options along my route, something within a couple of miles?”This feature will start rolling out in the U.S. on Android and iOS in the coming weeks. Gemini will call out landmarks in addition to distances, providing more precise direction instructions.“Gemini does this by analyzing Google Maps’ fresh, comprehensive information about 250 million places and cross-referencing it with Street View images to curate the most useful landmarks visible from the street,” according to the blog.

Speech by Fed Governor Barr on artificial intelligence and innovation - Federal Reserve Board --(excerpts) Today I'll discuss the opportunities presented by AI relevant for central bankers as well as the risks it may pose that policymakers should consider. I will leave you with three main takeaways. My first main point is that while AI is a big deal that will transform economies, there are a range of outcomes for how it could do so. AI—algorithms that mimic human thought, communication, and choices—has been with us for decades, but AI entered a new era with the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022. Generative AI (GenAI) captured our imagination with convincing conversations in which it is possible to go deep on a wide range of topics. Earlier forms of AI were often the bailiwick of digitally native companies, but GenAI is spreading rapidly through the economy. As of 2024, three in four large companies were using GenAI, though some report it has yet to improve their bottom line.3 Smaller companies have been slower to adopt GenAI, with adoption rates reported in the high single digits, albeit with a high degree of heterogeneity among sectors. Also, one could surmise, based on other surveys of individuals, that work-related use is more widespread among employees than their CEOs realize.4 A recent survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed that firms plan to retrain their workforces to take advantage of AI to enhance productivity, with widespread layoffs limited.5 But survey respondents also report that AI has led firms to scale back hiring, a development that may be contributing to the recent low levels of job creation in the U.S. economy, a concern for many workers and particularly for newer entrants to the job market. Taking a step back, as I have noted in the past, I see two basic scenarios for how AI can transform the economy.6 In the first scenario, there is incremental adoption of GenAI that augments existing tasks and jobs. In the second scenario, a revolution occurs. GenAI transforms the nature of work and leisure, boosting the efficiency of research and development, remaking industries, and creating firms with new—perhaps radically new—business models. Right now, it is difficult to predict which scenario (or perhaps one or more intermediate scenarios) will come to pass. The second key point I would like to make is that the financial sector is adopting AI quickly, and while there are many benefits to this adoption, the risks will need to be managed carefully. So far, AI adoption in the financial sector appears to be most concentrated in areas that can enhance operational efficiency, including applications that involve text analysis, classification, and information search inside the firm, as well as customer-facing functions. These incremental improvements to common business functions are a key reason to be hopeful about AI raising labor productivity in that sector. At the same time, there is significant investment in experimentation with AI for core functions for financial services. Data-driven financial-sector-specific tasks, including credit decision support, fraud detection, and trading are using AI-specific tools. Ensuring that AI is used appropriately for these functions faces appreciable challenges. A third and final point I would like to leave you with is that central banks, including the Fed, need to keep up with AI by increasing our speed of adoption for our own operations. The nature of central banking work is inherently careful, considered, and measured when evaluating anything new. This is particularly true for any new technologies.12But it seems clear already that the many advantages offered by AI could assist central banks in at least some of their operations, and the speed at which this technology is moving makes it appropriate to proactively engage in using AI for our own operations. That is why the Federal Reserve is using AI, where appropriate, to increase staff efficiency and effectiveness. My view is that GenAI is a transformative technology that central banks need to remain engaged with to ensure an ability to execute as technology evolves. As we push ahead on efficiency gains, it is important that we leverage the right tools for the task at hand, recognizing that GenAI is not always the best choice. Some of the challenges that we face can be addressed by robotic process automation or traditional AI methods. These are the same kinds of questions that every business and organization considering AI should be weighing.

A Giant Problem Emerges For The AI Trade: A Power Shortfall Of 44 Nuclear Power Plants By 2028 For much of the past 18 months we have been banging the table on what we said would be the Next AI Trade (which we firstdiscussed in April 2024) pitching the "picks and shovels" angle of the AI revolution, namely going long the "Power-Up America"basket - i.e., companies that produce and support the massive energy backbone that will be needed to energize the hundreds of new data centers popping up across the country (and which in some cases are now dark because they don't have access to energy) predicting that energy would materially outperform the pure AI/data center trade. That's precisely what has happened as the following chart breaking down the AI trade into its three core components - broad AI, data center equipment, and our preferred trade, Power Up America (or energize the grid) - shows. The blue line has doubled since we first discussed its merits in April '24. Our conviction in this trade was only reinforced by an analysis from Morgan Stanley last December, which found that for the 2025-28 period, "we project ~57 gigawatts (GW) of US data center power demand, and we quantify available power capacity to serve this demand as: near-term grid access of ~12-15 GW, plus ~6 GW of data centers under construction, resulting in a ~36 GW shortfall of US power access for data centers in 2025-28." Indicatively 36GW is sufficient to power ~27 million homes. Instead it will be going to power chatbots. Fast forward one year since Morgan Stanley published its original estimate when this morning Morgan Stanley's strategist Stephen Byrd published his follow up report, "Powering AI: Bitcoin Conversion: Business Models, a US Power Shortage, and the Big Picture" (available to pro subs), in which he reassessed US power needs through 2028. It will probably not come as a surprise to anyone, that his latest estimate is materially higher, rising to a staggering 44GW.... or roughly the output equivalent of 44 nuclear power plants! No wonder the Trump admin recently announced that it was prepared to lend hundreds of billions from the Energy Department's Loan Programs Office almost exclusively to nuclear power plants to kickstart this process.While the full Morgan Stanley note is a must read for those who have an interest in the AI trade, and certainly in the details of the "Next AI trade", and includes a detailed analysis on Bitcoin-to-Data center conversions, the non-linear rate of AI improvement and the continued upward growth in compute demand (we urge all pro subscribers to read it), what we focus on in this post is the bank's revised estimate of power shortfall facing US data center developers (we will discuss the financial implications in a subsequent post, suffice to note that 1GW in data center capacity costs roughly $50 - 60 billion in total capex spend). For its revised projection, Morgan Stanley conducted a probability-weighted assessment of the ability to satisfy US data center power demand, and found that with 69GW in total data center power demand from today until 2028, some 10GW will be satisfied with Data Centers under construction, and another 15GW through Utility Grid Access.That leaves a 44GW power shortfall, or a number so staggering any hopes of the AI revolution growing into Wall Street's optimistic projections implodes instantly... unless of course the government steps in to foot the bill (we will have more to say on that in a subsequent post).

Upstate NY Bitcoin Miner Wins! DEC Issues 5-Year Title V Air Permit - Marcellus Drilling News - Sometimes the good guys win, and man, oh, man, it is sure sweet when it happens! We have a grin from ear to ear today upon learning the news that bitcoin miner Greenidge has won a four-year battle with New York Governor Kathy Hochul’s Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC), forcing the DEC to issue the company’s gas-fired power plant on the shore of Seneca Lake a Title V federal air permit to remain open and operational for the next five years. TOTAL VICTORY over the mouthy and wackadoodle environmental left that tried (and failed) to shut down this operation.

Fed's Waller says central bank moving fast on 'skinny' account — Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller said Wednesday that the central bank is moving quickly to develop a "skinny" payments account for eligible institutions, saying he is aiming for a final rule to be issued on the new accounts by the end of next year. Waller said that the central bank will soon issue a request for information on a nascent proposal to offer "skinny" payment accounts to eligible institutions and is aiming to finalize a rule by the fourth quarter of 2026.

• Key takeaway: The Federal Reserve is moving quickly to establish a narrower payments account for certain eligible institutions for which a full-suite master account typically offered to traditional banks may not be suitable.
• Expert quote: "The goal here, assuming nothing goes haywire, is to have these up and operationalized by the fourth quarter of 2026. So we're moving at startup speed on this — we're not screwing around like federal regulators." — Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller
• What's at stake: State-chartered, crypto-centered depository institutions have been pushing the Fed to grant them master accounts, with one suing the central bank to compel them to grant a master account.

FDIC's Hill expects first GENIUS Act rules by year-end — Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. acting Chair Travis Hill said the agency is moving quickly to implement the recently passed GENIUS Act and expects the first proposed rules, related to the process of applying to become a stablecoin issuer, to be published by the end of the year.

• Key insight: Acting Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chair Travis Hill expects the agency to publish its first rules implementing the recently passed stablecoin bill by the end of the year.
• Expert quote: "The most immediate-term proposal we're going to issue is one that sets up an application process, which is something that's required under the statute." — Acting FDIC Chair Travis Hill
• Forward look: Hill also said the FDIC is working in tandem with other banking regulators to develop prudential standards for stablecoin issuers, including capital and reserve requirements and risk-management rules.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. acting Chair Travis Hill said Thursday morning that the agency's first proposed rules under recently passed stablecoin legislation should be published by the end of the year.

Banks, consumer groups push back against stablecoin yield -- Industry groups and consumer advocates are continuing to push for regulators to interpret the GENIUS Act's prohibition on stablecoin interest as broadly as possible, while crypto firms push for a narrower interpretation, arguing that increased competition would benefit consumers.

• Key insight: Banks want regulators to prohibit any economic benefit to stablecoin holders, while crypto companies argue that a flexible approach would benefit consumers.
• Supporting data: Bank groups warn interest yield on stablecoins could trigger trillions in deposits to flee the banking system.
• Forward look: The Treasury Department is considering the feedback as it finalizes GENIUS Act implementation rules.

Banks and crypto firms offered competing visions of whether a recently passed stablecoin bill, known as the GENIUS Act, should allow stablecoin customers to earn interest or rewards on their holdings, with banks arguing that such an arrangement could drain deposits out of the banking system and crypto firms arguing yields on stablecoin would inject needed competition for deposits into the market.

ICBA says stablecoin trust bank would violate scope of charter A banking trade group wrote to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency Thursday opposing fintech company Bridge's application for a national trust charter, citing administrative-procedural and statutory issues. Bridge is the stablecoin-focused arm of Stripe. In a letter to the OCC's top chartering officer Stephen Lybarger, the Independent Community Bankers of America asked the agency to reject the application after statements in the applicant's proposed business model proposed "carrying on the business of banking," which ICBA says exceeds the national trust charter's scope without commensurate oversight.

• Key insight: ICBA says Bridge's stablecoin plan violates historic scope of the trust charter.
• Supporting data: The industry group cites deposit-like business plans and the lack of statutory fiat to expand trust charters through an interpretive letter written by Gould in 2021.
• Forward look: Crypto trust bids face growing calls from banks, with increasing focus on administrative and legal concerns.

ICBA argues Bridge's stablecoin model pushes the trust charter beyond its intended fiduciary scope.

In a milestone, SoFi now offers crypto trading -- The company appears to be the first nationally chartered bank to offer crypto trading and traditional banking in the same app.

• Key insight: SoFi is the first nationally chartered consumer bank in the U.S. to allow members to buy, sell and hold cryptocurrencies directly within its single banking app.
• Supporting data: A SoFi survey indicates that 60% of its members who own crypto would prefer to use a licensed bank over their primary crypto exchange.
• Forward look: The launch is the first phase of a broader strategy that includes plans for a USD stablecoin, crypto-backed borrowing, and new staking features.

Overview bullets generated by AI with editorial review

Blue Ridge, which erred with fintechs, exits consent order -

• Key insight: A community bank in Virginia has been freed from a consent order related to its previous fintech partnerships.
• Expert quote: "We just threw BaaS out the door," said CEO Billy Beale.
• Forward look: The bank is now focused on a traditional community bank strategy, Beale said.

Blue Ridge Bankshares in Richmond, Virginia, which became a poster child for what can go wrong when banks partner with fintechs, has been released from a 2024 consent order related to its failed foray into banking as a service. The Virginia-based bank had been an example of what can go wrong when banks partner with fintechs. After being released from an OCC enforcement action, Blue Ridge is now focused on operating as a traditional community bank, said CEO Billy Beale.

JPMorgan Launches Dollar Deposit Token On Coinbase's Base Network - JPMorgan Chase & Co. — the world’s biggest bank by market capitalization — has begun deploying a token representing deposits held at the bank, called JPM Coin.According to a Wednesday Bloomberg report, JPMorgan’s institutional clients now have access to the JPM Coin. The bank’s blockchain division co-lead, Naveen Mallela, told Bloomberg that the token represents US dollar deposits at the bank and allows users to send and receive money on the blockchain created by US crypto exchange Coinbase, called Base, a platform endorsed by the bank.In mid-June, Mallela announced that a fixed number of JPMD tokens would be transferred to Coinbase on Base in the following days. The transfer was part of a pilot phase that was followed by allowing Coinbase’s institutional clients to access the bank’s deposit token.JPM Coin enables instant, 24/7 payment processing, which is significantly faster than the typical times seen in the US banking system. The news follows this week’s announcement by JPMorgan and Singapore multinational banking group DBS that they are developing a blockchain-based tokenization framework to enable onchain transfers between their deposit token ecosystems.JPMorgan had not responded to Cointelegraph’s inquiry by publication.JPM Coin is a so-called deposit token, meaning it represents a direct claim on a bank deposit and is therefore a regulated liability of the issuing bank.This is the primary distinction between this type of token and traditional stablecoins, which are issued by a private entity and backed by assets to maintain their value.Much like the broader US financial industry, JPMorgan appears to be doubling down on its commitment to tokenization and blockchain technology. At the end of October, JPMorgan’s private bank and asset management divisions initiated the first transaction on the forthcoming Kinexys Fund Flow fund tokenization platform.

The Next Financial Crisis - Bill McBride - This is worth repeating ... Back in 2005 I was mostly writing about the housing bubble - and the coming housing bust. But I also mentioned the possibility of a financial crisis. In early 2007, I started forecasting a recession, and by the end of 2007 the housing bust causing a financial crisis was becoming obvious. Here is an article from the WSJ in 2007 quoting a crazy blogger: How High Will Subprime Losses Go? Back in the U.S., the Calculated Risk blog sidestepped the colorful language and went straight for the big number: “The losses for the lenders and investors might well be over $1 trillion.” Many people thought I was crazy. But losses for lenders and financial institutions ended up over $1 trillion. Then in 2013 I wrote that there will be another crisis someday: "Each new generation of Wall Street wizards figures out a new way to turn lead into gold, and to become wealthy while damaging the financial system. Some of these wizards are probably perfecting their financial alchemy right now."The key for the "wizards" was to find a way around the regulatory system, and if they could use leverage, the fool's gold would eventually lead to a crisis. By 2013 the seeds were planted, not by Wall Street wizards, but by Tech Wizards. Now the seeds have taken root (Of course, I'm talking about cryptocurrency, what Charlie Munger called financial "rat poison"). Last year, researchers at the NY Fed looked at the impact of crypto on the financial system: The Financial Stability Implications of Digital Assets. And they concluded: "that, to date, the contribution of digital assets to systemic risk has been limited, given that the digital ecosystem is relatively small and not a major provider of financing and payment services to the real economy." The key to preventing a financial crisis is to keep the non-regulated (or poorly regulated) areas of finance out of the financial system. A good example is the Tulip Bubble in the 1600s. Some people got rich, others were wiped out, but it had no impact on the financial system. Unfortunately the current administration has embraced crypto. They are allowing it to creep into the financial system, and allowing 401K plans to hold crypto (aka future bagholders). There has been some discussion of allowing financial institutions to lend against crypto holdings - like for a mortgage. This is mistake and increases the possibility that crypto will be the source of the next financial crisis. A final note: CNBC should be embarrassed to have crypto prices on their website.

What's on the docket as Congress returns after shutdown — The federal government shutdown has officially ended, which means that Congress can return to big-ticket items for the banking industry. For banks, the biggest-ticket issues are ongoing deliberations on raising deposit insurance and shaping a crypto market structure bill.

• What's at stake: Legislation that could rewrite the financial system, like deposit insurance and market structure bills, are up for debate in the coming months in Congress.
• Forward look: There's not a lot of time for Congress to address these issues before some lawmakers need to return to their districts to campaign.
• Key insight: Both items have some momentum behind them, but would require the administration to whip votes to push them past the finish line.

BankThink: Leave FDIC insurance where it is and tax 'too big to fail' banks instead -- Proposed increases to deposit insurance coverage would be a giveaway to large banks and wealthy depositors, writes Ken Thomas. Some bankers apparently think the "c" in the FDIC on their front door means insurance "cooperative," where they dictate their own premiums; the underlying designated reserve ratio, or DRR; and even deposit insurance limits. Like the unwarranted $10 and $20 million proposals for community bank designated business accounts. Bankers who view the FDIC as their insurance cooperative protecting them rather than a corporation protecting depositors have proposed unwarranted $10 and $20 million FDIC deposit insurance limits. There is a better solution to their concern over big bank competitive advantages.

State Street buys private-sector inflation data provider - The Boston-based custody bank has acquired PriceStats, a private economic researcher. The move comes at a time when federal data agencies are weathering budget cuts, political attacks and a government shutdown.

• Key Insight: State Street has acquired PriceStats, a private-sector economic researcher. The merger comes at a fraught moment for government economic statistics, which have faced attacks by the Trump administration.
• Expert Quote: "The things that the administration has done that have undermined the trust in the data are unprecedented and very damaging," said Erica Groshen, a former commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
• Forward Look: State Street hopes to give its investors an edge as they evaluate a quickly evolving macroeconomic environment.

DOJ: CFPB cannot request new funding from the Fed - The Department of Justice told a court that the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau cannot legally request funding from the Federal Reserve System, arguing that the Fed has not turned a profit since 2022 and thus cannot fund the CFPB.

• Key Insight: The Justice Department filed a motion with a court about a "potential lapse in appropriations." The CFPB said it has enough money to operate through Dec. 31st.
• Supporting Data: The Justice Department's Office of Legal Counsel made the decision that the central bank lacks "combined earnings" to fund the CFPB, as required by the Dodd-Frank Act.
• What's at Stake: The funding dispute is part of a larger, ongoing political and legal fight against the CFPB's unique funding structure, and efforts by the Trump administration to shut down the agency.

The Department of Justice told a court that the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau cannot legally request funding from the Federal Reserve System because the central bank technically has no profits. The CFPB said it only has enough money to continue operating through Dec. 31, leaving its future in limbo, according to the filing.

Fannie, Freddie eyeing assumable or portable loans: Pulte - Two government-sponsored enterprises are looking into expanding mortgage transfers between borrowers, according to the head of their oversight agency. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two influential mortgage buyers the United States holds in conservatorship, are looking into doing more with loans transferred between buyers and sellers, according to Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte.

Trump, Pulte float 50-year mortgage use in U.S. -- The range of fixed-rate mortgage terms and other outcomes possible through government-sponsored enterprise reform got a lot wider over the weekend. President Trump and housing regulator Bill Pulte are considering introducing a 50-year fixed rate mortgage that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would purchase.

Housing director confirms administration ‘working on’ 50-year mortgage after Trump hint - Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) Director Bill Pulte on Saturday said the Trump administration is “working on” a plan to introduce 50-year mortgage terms for home buyers. “Thanks to President Trump, we are indeed working on The 50 year Mortgage – a complete game changer,” Pulte wrote in a statement on the social platform X. It followed a Truth Social post by President Trump earlier in the day where he shared a graphic juxtaposing an image of him next to one of former President Franklin D. Roosevelt. The administration that oversaw the New Deal established the 30-year mortgage standard to help citizens recover from the Great Depression.Similarly, Trump campaigned on creating affordability for the younger generation last year, but the president has faced headwinds on the subject more recently as prices rise. Google searches for “help with mortgage” recently climbed to their highest level since 2009, while adjustable-rate mortgages, or ARMs, have also been trending. ARMs made up about 10 percent of all mortgage applications in September — the highest share in nearly two years and well above the post-2008 average of 6 percent, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). Still, home prices and interest rates remain relatively high, with the median household spending approximately 38.4 percent of their monthly income on mortgage payments, Redfin determined. In May, Trump said he was considering bringing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac public. The two enterprises key to the mortgage market were originally created by Congress but remained private companies funded by the Treasury Department until the housing market crash in 2008. “I am giving very serious consideration to bringing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac public,” Trump wrote in post on Truth Social, adding that he would make a decision in the “near future.”“Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are doing very well, throwing off a lot of CASH, and the time would seem to be right. Stay tuned,” he added.Pulte, whose agency is responsible for keeping tabs on Fannie and Freddie, confirmed last month that Trump is “opportunistically evaluating” whether to release the two enterprises to the market as early as the end of 2025.

Wall Street Journal calls Donald Trump's 50-year mortgage 'a bad deal' -- The editorial board of The Wall Street Journal is pushing back on President Trump’s suggested 50-year mortgage plan.Calling the idea a “bad deal,” the Journal in an editorial published this week said “a 50-year mortgage could cut monthly payments by a few hundred dollars, but it would also increase the interest borrowers pay by hundreds of thousands of dollars over the life of the loan.” “Borrowers might also have to pay higher interest rates to compensate for the greater risk of default over 50 years,” the editorial reads.“We’ve seen this scary movie before,” the board added. “As the housing bubble inflated, Fannie Mae began buying more 40-year mortgages, which let borrowers take out bigger loans than they could otherwise afford. Borrowers were slower to build equity, and many walked away from their mortgages when home prices collapsed.”The president in recent days has floated a 50-year mortgage plan as a way to lower monthly payments and respond to widespread concern among Americans about housing affordability and the cost of livingFederal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte embraced Trump’s idea, calling it “a complete game changer.”But the Journal, which has long been critical of Trump’s economic policies, is warning the plan could end in disaster for the housing market and broader economy. “Writing down mortgages for distressed borrowers is a booming business for mortgage bankers,” it said. “But keeping people in homes they can’t afford means there are fewer available to buy, which makes housing less affordable for everyone else. That’s what a 50-year mortgage will do too.”

A 50-Year Mortgage Does Nothing for “Affordability,” Is a Terrible Deal for Homeowners and a Superb Deal for Banks & Investors by Wolf Richter - The Trump administration is proffering the idea of 50-year government-backed mortgages, like the current 30-year and 15-year mortgages. This may be a great idea for the mortgage industry, banks, shadow banks, and investors that invest in mortgage-backed securities, but it’s a very costly mortgage for homebuyers.The small amount of payment reduction gets crushed by the huge amount of additional interest they have to pay. It would be the ripoff of the century.Note that the principal portion of the mortgage payment remains your money; it’s like a forced savings account. But the interest portion of the payment is the bank’s money, the cost of the mortgage that makes someone else rich.There are fundamental mortgage dynamics involved here, some of which can be seen by using online mortgage payment calculators. But to get the nitty-gritty, the way I’m doing below, you might have to build your own amortization schedule on a spreadsheet.Longer term loans come with higher interest rates. Mortgage rates are determined by the mortgage market which is tied to the bond market. And mortgages with longer terms come with higher interest rates.For example, per Freddie Mac last week, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 72 basis points higher than the average 15-year fixed mortgage rate:

• 15-year mortgage: 5.50%
• 30-year mortgage: 6.22%

The difference between the two has averaged 74 basis points over the past five years.So a 50-year mortgage would have a similarly higher mortgage rate than a 30-year mortgage compared to a 15-year mortgage. For our example here, I estimate that the 50-year mortgage rate is 70 basis points higher than the 30-year mortgage rate. Using Freddie Mac’s average of 6.22% for 30-year mortgages, the average 50-year mortgage would have had a rate of 6.92% last week. The monthly payment would only be $91 lower. Monthly payments of our $500,000 mortgage, at 5.50% for a 15-year, 6.22% for a 30-year, and 6.92% for a 50-year mortgage:

• 15-year: $4,085
• 30-year: $3,069
• 50-year: $2,978
• Difference: $91

So the 50-year $500,000 mortgage would have a monthly payment that is $91 lower than the $30-year mortgage. But that $91 a month comes at a huge cost for homeowners.Amortizing the mortgage over 50 years versus 30 years or 15 years means that the principal amount of the mortgage – $500,000 of our example mortgage – would get paid off in much smaller increments, and that therefore the interest portion of the monthly payment would decline much more slowly, with the effect that the borrower would pay much more in interest. Interest paid over the entire term of the $500,000 mortgage:

• 15-year mortgage: $235,375
• 30-year mortgage: $604,779
• 50-year mortgage: $958,514

Even if the 50-year mortgage is paid off in 15 years, such as when the home is sold or refinanced after 15 years, total interest paid would be much higher. Interest paid for our $500,000 mortgage over those first 15 years:

• 15-year mortgage: $235,375
• 30-year mortgage: $410,988
• 50-year mortgage: $506,261

In other words, over the first 15 years of the 50-year mortgage, the borrower paid more in interest ($506,261) than the original loan value ($500,000). That’s a lot of money to have handed over to the banks in 15 years. With a 15-year mortgage, the borrower would have saved $270,886 in interest expense over a 50-year mortgage that gets paid off in 15 years. With a 30-year mortgage paid off in 15 years, the borrower would have saved $95,273 over a 50-year mortgage that gets paid off in 15 years.The chart below shows the cumulative interest paid over the first 180 months (15 years) of those three $500,000 mortgages: a 15-year mortgage at 5.50% (light blue); a 30-year mortgage at 6.22% (purple), and a 50-year mortgage at 6.92% (red). After 15 years of payments, the remaining balance of the $500,000 mortgage would be:

• 15-year mortgage: $0
• 30-year mortgage: $359,800
• 50-year mortgage: $470,511

Even if the 50-year mortgage is paid off in 5 years, total interest paid would be much higher. Interest paid for that $500,000 mortgage over those first 5 years:

• 15-year mortgage: $121,570
• 30-year mortgage: $150,649
• 50-year mortgage: $171,918

In other words, over just the first 5 years, the 50-year mortgage costs $21,269 more than a 30-year mortgage, and $50,348 more than a 15-year mortgage.

November ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices "Firmed" in October, Up 0.9% Year-over-year --Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: November ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices "Firmed" in October, Up 0.9% Year-over-year. Here is the ICE November Mortgage Monitor report (pdf). Press Release: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Number of Highly Qualified Refinance Candidates Reaches 3.5-Year High Amid Easing Mortgage Rates Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. … today released its November 2025 ICE Mortgage Monitor Report. The data shows that falling mortgage rates have significantly expanded the pool of homeowners who could reduce their monthly payments by refinancing, while also reducing the cost to finance purchase and home equity mortgage loans. The recent easing in mortgage rates has begun to open the refinance window for many borrowers, particularly those who originated loans in the past two years,” said Andy Walden, Head of Mortgage and Housing Market Research at ICE. “At the same time, homeowners still have near-record amounts of tappable equity, and the cost to access that equity continues to improve. Together, these trends are creating meaningful opportunities for borrowers to leverage rate-and-term refinances and second-lien home equity products.”Key findings from the November Mortgage Monitor include:

• Highly qualified refinance candidate population hits multi-year high. As the ICE U.S. Conforming 30-year Fixed Mortgage Rate Lock Index dipped to 6.17% in late October — the lowest level in a year — the number of highly qualified refinance candidates (those with a 720+ credit score, 20% equity, and potential savings of at least 75 basis points) rose to 1.7 million, the largest such population since early 2022.When broader borrower profiles are included, approximately 4.1 million mortgage holders are currently “in the money” for a refinance, meaning they could save at least 75 bps by refinancing at prevailing mortgage rates. Should rates ease to 6.125% the cohort “in the money” to refinance would expand to nearly 5 million.
• Prepayment speeds rise sharply among recently originated loans. ICE McDash Flash daily performance data shows that prepayment speeds rose sharply in September and October as refinances spurred by the recent dip in mortgage rates began to pull through to close. Most of this activity comes from loans originated between 2023 and 2025. As of mid-October, prepayment speeds for both 2023 and 2024 vintage GNMA- and GSE-securitized loans have more than doubled compared to August levels.
• Strong equity positions support home equity lending. Mortgage holders entered Q4 with $17.3 trillion in home equity, of which $11.2 trillion is tappable, meaning it can be accessed via home equity loan while still maintaining a 20% equity stake in the property. The average mortgage holder has $204,000 available to borrow.While total equity growth has flattened alongside slower home price appreciation in recent months, the monthly cost to withdraw $50,000 in equity has fallen by more than $100 from recent highs as HELOC interest rate offerings have fallen from nearly 10% in early 2024 to the low 7% range in Q3 2025.
• Home price growth firmed in October alongside improved affordability. ICE Home Price Index (HPI) data shows that annual home price growth ticked up to +0.9% in October as affordability hit its best level in 2.5 years, breaking a nine-month streak of slowing appreciation. Single family homes were up +1.2% annually in October while condo prices were down 1.8% from the same time last year. Home price growth remains strongest in the Northeast and Midwest, while a recent reversal of inventory growth in parts of the South and West have begun to slow the rate of home price cooling.
• Mortgage Delinquencies Decreased Slightly in September Here is a graph of the national delinquency rate from ICE. Overall delinquencies decreased in September and remain below the pre-pandemic levels. Source: ICE McDash

• The national delinquency rate fell by 2 basis points (bps) in September to 3.42%, down 6 bps from the same time last year and 58 bps below its September 2019 pre-pandemic level
• Both early-stage (30-day) and late-stage (90+ day) delinquencies improved month over month following the August Sunday month end, as the vast majority of borrowers remain current on their mortgage payments
• Delinquency inflows and rolls to 60-days late both declined, with rolls to 90-days late flat month over month, with cures to current improving across all stages of delinquency
• The non-current rate (delinquencies plus active foreclosures) declined year over year among GSE (-3 bps), VA (-4 bps) and portfolio-held loans (-17 bps), with FHA loans being the notable exception, rising by 44 bps from last year
• FHA loans now account for 47% of all delinquencies and 52% of all serious delinquencies (90+ days past due but not in foreclosure)
• Only 25% of FHA loans that are 90 or more days late are in foreclosure – the lowest share of any product – but with FHA guidelines changing this fall, that share may be poised to grow.

Here is the year-over-year in house prices according to the ICE Home Price Index (HPI). The ICE HPI is a repeat sales index. ICE reports the median price change of the repeat sales. The index was up 0.9% year-over-year in October. Improved rates and tighter inventory boosted home prices in October, with annual growth rising to +0.9% and seasonally adjusted prices increasing +0.15% ‒ the largest monthly gain since March. Negative Equity Rates Have Increased:

• Negative equity rates, after years at record lows, have risen slightly toward more typical levels
• As of Q4, 875K mortgage holders (1.6%) owe more on their homes than they are worth, the highest rate in three years but comparable to pre-COVID levels and long-term averages outside the Great Financial Crisis
• The share of borrowers with limited equity (<10%) has also increased, reaching 6.9% in September ‒ the highest since mid-2020 but still below long-term averages
• While overall negative equity rates remain low, certain markets are showing signs of concern, particularly in the Gulf Coast of Florida and Austin, Texas
• In Cape Coral, Fla., where home prices have dropped 15% from their peak, 11% of mortgages are underwater, including over one-third of those originated in 2023 and 2024
• In Austin, with prices down 21% from their highs, nearly 7% of mortgages are underwater, including about 25% of loans from 2022 and over 15% from 2023 and 2024
• Borrowers with low down payment FHA/VA loans in these areas face even higher negative equity rates, exceeding 60% in some cases
• In contrast, markets like Bridgeport, Hartford, New Haven (Conn.), San Jose, Los Angeles, Boston, and New York City, which have resilient home prices and larger down payments, have virtually no negative equity.

MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased in Q3 2025 - Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased in Q3 2025 A brief excerpt: From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase in the Third Quarter of 2025 - The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties increased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.99 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the third quarter of 2025, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey. The delinquency rate was up 6 basis points from the second quarter of 2025 and up 7 basis points from one year ago. The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started in the third quarter rose by 3 basis points to 0.20 percent.“Mortgage delinquencies increased in third quarter of 2025, led by worsening FHA loan performance,” said Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA’s Vice President of Industry Analysis. “Since this time last year, the FHA seriously delinquent rate – which includes 90+ day delinquencies and loans in foreclosure – increased by almost 50 basis points. In contrast, the conventional and VA seriously delinquent rates remained relatively flat.” Added Walsh, “The stressors on FHA homeowners include a softer labor market, other personal debt obligations, and increases in taxes, homeowners’ insurance and other fees that exacerbate already stretched affordability. Additionally, home price declines in some parts of the country may lessen the ability to sell or refinance.”Walsh also noted that while the third quarter results were not impacted by the ending of COVID-era FHA loss mitigation options and the recent government shutdown, those events may affect future quarters.

MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey --From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey - Mortgage applications increased 0.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 7, 2025.The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 3 percent from the previous week and was 147 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 6 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was 31 percent higher than the same week one year ago. “Purchase applications picked up almost 6 percent over the week to the strongest pace since September, despite mortgage rates increasing slightly, with the 30-year fixed rate rising to 6.34 percent,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Purchase applications for conventional, FHA, and VA loans increased, as potential homebuyers continue to shop around, particularly in markets where inventory has increased and sales price growth has slowed. Based on the unadjusted purchase index for the week, this was the strongest start to November since 2022.”Added Kan, “Higher mortgage rates did quell some refinance activity, as conventional and VA refinance applications declined over the week, and the average loan size for refinances dropped to its lowest level in over a month.”... The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) increased to 6.34 percent from 6.31 percent, with points increasing to 0.62 from 0.58 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index. According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 31% year-over-year unadjusted. Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly). Purchase application activity is still depressed, but above the lows of 2023 and slightly above the lowest levels during the housing bust.

Inventory Down 1.7% Week-over-week - Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.7% week-over-week. Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then declines sharply during the holiday season.The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. The red line is for 2025. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 16.7% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 16.5%), and down 5.6% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 6.2%). Inventory started 2025 down 22% compared to 2019. Inventory has closed three-fourths of that gap, but it appears inventory will still be below 2019 levels at the end of 2025.This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of November 7th, inventory was at 842 thousand (7-day average), compared to 857 thousand the prior week. Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube.

Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Decreased 7% in October - From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Falls Back 7% in October The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, decreased 7.1% in October to 283.3 (2000=100) from the upwardly revised reading of 304.8. Over the month, commercial planning declined 2.9% and institutional planning slowed by 15.2%. Year-to-date, the DMI is up 35% from the average reading over the same period in 2024. “After several months of record-breaking levels, planning momentum slowed in October,” “Activity remains solid across the board, especially for data centers and hospitals. However, recent growth should not solely be attributed to gains in real activity. Anticipated increases in labor and material costs are also driving up project expenses and are inflating the overall trend in the DMI. In the coming months, Dodge anticipates activity to continue to decelerate on average, especially as macroeconomic risks continue to mount.” On the commercial side, activity slowed down for warehouses and hotels, while planning momentum was sustained for data centers, traditional office buildings and retail stores. On the institutional side, education and healthcare planning have slowed down, after strong activity in recent months. Meanwhile, recreational and public planning continued to grow. Year-over-year, the DMI was up 52% when compared to October 2024. The commercial segment was up 54% (+43% when data centers are removed) and the institutional segment was up 49% over the same period. ... The DMI is a monthly measure of the value of nonresidential building projects going into planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 283.3 in October, down from 304.8 the previous month. According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year". This index suggests a pickup in mid-2025, however, uncertainty might impact these projects. Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator.

Quarter of US households living paycheck-to-paycheck: Report - A quarter of American households are living paycheck to paycheck, according to a new analysis from Bank of America. Slow wage growth has contributed to an increase in households with limited savings. Lower-income and middle-aged households bear the brunt of rising costs. The number of middle-aged households living paycheck to paycheck has increased compared to Generation Z and the Silent Generation — older than baby boomers — whose conditions have relatively stayed the same. Higher-income millennial households saw their average wages grow 5 percentage points faster “than the rate of lower-income households in the same generation,”according to the analysis, released Monday. Higher-income Gen Xers have outpaced their lower-income counterparts by 4 points. And higher-income baby boomers “have seen wage gains, while their lower-income peers are seeing declines.” “Consequently, these higher-income cohorts are more able to absorb the recent reacceleration in inflation due to their outsized wage growth, while lower-income households’ wage growth has not kept pace,” it added. For the report, households were defined as living paycheck to paycheck if in the quarter their necessity spending exceeded 95 percent of their income. The bank found that the number of households in the Northeast and Midwest living paycheck to paycheck increased using year-over-year data, while it decreased for those living in the South and West. The bank’s analysis said the latter regions had lower inflation rates, contributing to more financial stability. Still, those areas have households that are more likely to be facing monetary strain. Looking across the U.S., Bank of America wrote in its analysis that it saw that the Southern census divisions — notably Delaware, the District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia and West Virginia — and Western divisions — especially Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming — had the “highest share of households living paycheck to paycheck.” “Meanwhile, the divisions with the lowest share are in the Northeast (particularly New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania) and Midwest (namely Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin).” The financial institution used internal transaction data for the macroeconomic views in the report. Transactions tabulated as necessity spending ranged from child care, external credit card payments, gasoline, general retail, grocery, housing (mortgage/rent), insurance, cable TV/broadband, public transportation, tax payments, vehicle costs and payments. Bank of America defined income as regularly recurring payments into accounts, such as payroll, social security, unemployment insurance pensions and annuity income.

Subprime Auto Delinquencies Worst In Over 30 Years -- Building on the theme of low-income consumers and young people burdened by debt and affordability woes, signs of stress are continuing to emerge across the subprime tier of the auto loan space.A new Bloomberg report on Wednesday, citing data from Fitch Ratings, showed that delinquency rates on subprime auto loans surged to their highest level since 1994, with 6.65% of subprime borrowers at least 60 days overdue on payments in October. Key data from the Bloomberg report:

• Subprime exposure rising: 14.4% of consumers now fall into the riskiest credit category, the highest since 2019 (TransUnion).
• Negative equity spike: Over 28% of trade-ins carried negative equity in Q3, as car prices hover above $50,000 and loan balances exceed vehicle values.
• Soaring rates: Deep-subprime borrowers face average interest rates of 16% (new cars) and 21.6% (used). Some individual loans reach near-predatory levels above 30%.

AAR Rail Traffic in October: Carloads Flat, Intermodal Down - From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. In October 2025, total U.S. rail carloads were down a fraction (-0.03%) from October 2024, and 11 of the 20 major rail carload categories posted year-over- year declines. ... U.S. rail intermodal shipments fell 3.0% in October 2025 from October 2024—the third year-over-year decline in the past five months for intermodal and the steepest percentage drop since August 2023. Historically, October is one of the strongest months for intermodal traffic: in the 25 years from 2000 to 2024, it was among the top three months for average weekly intermodal volume in 20 of those years. It won’t be this year: October’s weekly average of 273,747 units has already been surpassed by four other months. The AAR Freight Rail Index (FRI) measures seasonally adjusted month-to-month rail intermodal shipments plus carloads excluding coal and grain. As such, it is a useful gauge of underlying freight demand tied to industrial production and consumer goods flows. The index fell 1.4% in October 2025 from September 2025, its sixth decline in the past seven months. The index is 1.5% below its level from a year earlier.

Verizon Set To Axe 15,000 Jobs Right Before Thanksgiving Holiday -The optics look awful for Verizon Communications if the Wall Street Journal's report is accurate: the carrier is preparing for its largest job cuts ever just days before millions of Americans hit the road for Thanksgiving. WSJ says Verizon is planning to cut 15,000 jobs. If that figure is correct, Bloomberg's latest data suggests this would be about15% of its roughly 100,000-person workforce. WSJ notes this would be the largest workforce reduction on record for the carrier.Most of the job reductions will come from direct layoffs, and the carrier will shift 200 corporate stores into franchise operations, removing those employees from Verizon's payroll. For three consecutive quarters, Verizon has been losing postpaid phone subscribers, putting pressure on leadership to stop the hemorrhaging. Earlier, Verizon chairman Mark Bertolini told CNBC's Becky Quick on "Squawk Box" that the company needs to "do something different" as it undergoes its leadership change.Bertolini said the carrier's new CEO, ex-PayPal boss Dan Schulman, is working on a turnaround plan after share losses under former CEO Hans Vestberg. "Verizon has gone from number one in market cap, bond ratings and market share to number three. And the network isn't as differentiated as it used to be, in large part because everybody's been spending money to put these 5G networks in place," Bertolini said. "So losing 30% share over the last eight years is an issue, and we have to do something different."

How Much Screen Time Is Your Child Getting at School? We Asked 350 Teachers. - - American classrooms have been transformed by screens in the last five years, with most students, of all ages, now learning on computers or tablets during the school day.Even as schools have moved rapidly to ban cellphones, screens are nearly universal: Ninety-nine percent of teachers said their school provided devices to students for use in class, in an informal national survey of 350 pre-K through 12th-grade teachers conducted by The New York Times in October.Eight in 10 teachers said students at their school had a device assigned to them, compared with about a third who said that was the case in 2019 before the pandemic.And of elementary schoolteachers, 81 percent said students at their school receive devices for use in class by kindergarten.In a separate Times questionnaire, sent to the 20 largest U.S. school districts, nearly all said they provide devices to students starting in kindergarten or earlier. The results show how technology has become ingrained in schools, with computers often used for required curriculum, standardized testing and even free time. Google Chromebooks are the most common device.Online learning has brought important benefits, teachers said, like preparing students to use technology in their future careers, and enabling them to research topics online.But it has also introduced new problems, with concerns about distraction and screen time mounting among both teachers and parents as U.S. test scores decline.

• I cannot in good faith allow students to stare at screens for hours at school when I know that when they go home, the majority of students spend the majority of time watching screens. Landon Durtschi, High school history, Bronx
• I see students routinely have small windows of YouTube up while simultaneously having an assignment to work on. - Jason Zimmerman, High school math, Kansas City, Mo.

In the survey, which included respondents from 40 states and Washington, D.C., nearly three-fourths of teachers who use devices in their classrooms said they distract from student learning and engagement in class, and a majority said children in their classrooms had used them to play games or watch videos unrelated to school.Still, about seven in 10 teachers said that if it were up to them, they would choose to use devices in their class at least some of the time.“It’s not either/or for me,” said Bill Heuisler, a high school history teacher in Los Angeles. “It’s about wisely using technology” only when necessary, he said.Many schools began providing laptops to students in the 2010s. But the vast embrace of technology, for students of all ages, accelerated because of the pandemic.When schools went remote in 2020, districts across the country rushed to buy every student a personal device, and the business of education tech exploded, with districts investing in online apps and curriculums.In the survey, about half of teachers said their school’s core curriculum required students to work online.More than two-thirds said student work time on devices had increased from prepandemic levels.In elementary classrooms, most teachers estimated that students use them for an hour or less a day. The youngest students, unable to read or type, listen on headphones and use touch screens, teachers said, and need exposure to devices because most standardized tests are now given online.

Chicago-area schools announce closures and delays due to winter storm, Illinois - YouTube video - Multiple school districts across Chicago and northwest Indiana announced closures, delays, or transitions to e-learning for Monday, November 10, 2025, due to a powerful storm that brought the region’s first snow of the season. A powerful winter storm moving through the Great Lakes prompted widespread schedule changes across the Chicago metropolitan region and northwest Indiana on Sunday night. Dozens of school districts announced closures, delayed openings, or shifts to e-learning for Monday, citing anticipated snowfall and deteriorating road conditions. As of Sunday evening, November 9 (21:00 CST), a Winter Storm Warning remained in effect for Cook, Lake (IL), Lake (IN), Porter, La Porte, Eastern Will, and Kankakee counties, effective through Monday afternoon. Meteorologists warned that lake-effect snow bands could reduce visibility and create difficult travel during the Monday morning commute. National Weather Service forecast total accumulations of 10 to 18 cm (4 to 7 inches) in parts of the warning area, with localized higher totals along the Lake Michigan shore. YouTube video Chicago Public Schools (CPS) stated late Sunday that it planned to continue in-person classes on Monday but would monitor conditions overnight and notify families by early morning if plans changed. As of 22:00 CST, several suburban and regional districts had confirmed schedule adjustments:

• Evanston Township High School–1 hour 15 minutes delay.
• Niles Township High School District 219–1 hour 30 minutes delay.
• Glenbrook High School District 225–1 hour 30 minutes delay.
• Palos Heights District 128–2-hour delay.
• Arbor Park School District 145 (Oak Forest) –3-hour delay.

Other institutions opted for full remote learning. Aspire Charter Academy in Gary (IN), Thornton Fractional High School District 215, River Forest School Corporation, City of Hobart Schools, and Lake Station Community Schools confirmed e-learning days for Monday. Horizon Science Academies at Belmont, McKinley Park, and Southwest Chicago campuses announced full closures with no evening activities.

Chicago day care teacher released from ICE detention a week after arrest— A Chicago day care teacher arrested a week ago by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) on the city’s North Side has been released from custody, according to the law firm Hughes Socol Piers Resnick & Dym (HSPRD). Diana Santillana Galeano was detained on Nov. 5 by federal agents at her workplace, Rayito de Sol Spanish Immersion Early Learning Center, located in the North Center neighborhood. According to HSPRD, Santillana Galeano was released Wednesday night from ICE detention in Clay County, Ind. “We are thrilled that Ms. Santillana was released, and has been able to return home to Chicago where she belongs,” said attorney Charlie Wysong, who, along with Naiara Testai, represents Santillana Galeano at HSPRD. “We will continue to pursue her immigration claims to stay in the United States. We are grateful to her community for the outpouring of support over these difficult days, and ask that her privacy be respected while she rests and recovers from this ordeal.” Nexstar’s NewsNation reported that Santillana Galeano was released after a U.S. District judge in Chicago ruled that her arrest was illegal because she was not offered bond when she was detained. Her arrest took place on Nov. 5, when an SUV of federal agents followed Santillana Galeano’s vehicle to the day care center, then followed her into the building, where children were in attendance at the time. Video from the scene captured two agents dragging the teacher from the day care, taking her into custody. According to Congressman Mike Quigley, the agents did not have a warrant. A Department of Homeland Security source previously told NewsNation that Santillana Galeano entered the U.S illegally from Colombia in 2023, adding that she later sent for her children, ages 16 and 17, who arrived in October as unaccompanied children. Santillana Galeano’s detainment sparked outrage among community members, parents and city leaders — many coming forward in support and to speak on her behalf.

No, higher education isn’t turning students into ‘communists’-- The date for accepting President Trump’s “Compact for Academic Excellence in Higher Education” in return for funding has come and gone. Seven ofthe 10 institutions initially approached have rejected it.The compact demands that the schools end diversity, equity and inclusion programs in admissions and hiring and protect conservative students from alleged discrimination. It presumes that colleges and universities indoctrinate young people with radical leftistideology, a belief that has become an article of MAGA faith. Trump has accused faculty of “turning our students into communists, terrorists and sympathizers of many, many dimensions.” That claim does not stand up to scrutiny. It gives young people no credit for being independent thinkers and ascribes to faculty a power of persuasion they do not have. The degree of choice among schools, majors and courses makes indoctrination impossible. Students can select from 4,360 diverse institutions of higher education, all of which provide ample information on their programs, faculty and student life. One website even classifies schools based on whether they are liberal or conservative. Since most faculty are liberals, the critics insist, it hardly matters what school a student attends. In a recent survey, 50 percent of faculty identified as liberal, 17 percent as moderate and 26 percent as conservative, but that does not mean that their political convictions guide their teaching.Most courses cannot be taught from an ideological perspective — left, right or center. Is there a “woke” way to teach chemistry, biology, physics, music or geology? There may be Marxist mathematicians, but there is no such thing as Marxist calculus.A 2023 survey identified the top 10 majors based on percentage of students: business, nursing, psychology, education, biology, criminal justice, computer science, health professions, accounting and engineering. Courses in most of these fields are highly technical and not amenable to ideological interpretation. Business, which attracts the most majors, has a higher percentage of conservative faculty than universities and colleges do in general. “What about the humanities and social sciences?” critics will ask. These fields do have the highest percentage ofleft-leaning faculty, but most teach their courses objectively I have required students in my Western Civilization course to read excerpts from “The Wealth of Nations” and the “Communist Manifesto.” That’s not because I want to promote either one, but because both are essential to understanding 19th-century Europe. Determining political leaning from choice of major is extraordinarily difficult, but some evidence suggests liberal students are more likely to choose humanities or social sciences. Their beliefs influence their choice of major and selection of courses. The courses do not indoctrinate them. All students must take a broad range of liberal arts courses, but they have many options. My “White Supremacy in the United States” class is not a required course, but it fills quickly because of student interest. Since departments offer multiple sections of required courses, students can pick their instructor. And most schools make course evaluations available, so finding out if a professor has an ideological bias is not difficult. If liberal indoctrination really did happen in colleges and universities, it should be evident in voting patterns. It is not. In the 2024 election, 49 percent of college-educated men voted for Kamala Harris, and 48 percent for Donald Trump (a virtual tie); 61 percent of college women voted for Harris and just 37 percent for Trump. However, most non-college educated women also favored Harris over Trump, 53 percent to 45 percent.If there is little evidence of indoctrination occurring in the classrooms, what about the campus environment? Supporters of the president’s crackdown insist that many schools do not make conservative students feel welcome. Some undergraduates perceive that they suffer “viewpoint discrimination,” the idea that their beliefs are not respected. Perception, however, does not always accurately reflect reality. A June 2024survey revealed that only 44 percent of college students “felt comfortable expressing their opinions without fear of negative consequences.”The data revealed that 54 percent of Democrats, 39 percent of Republicans, and 36 percent of “others” felt comfortable sharing their views. However, the same survey revealed that 64 percent of students believed everyone should be free to express themselves without fear of retribution, which suggests conservatives exaggerate fears of viewpoint discrimination. Campuses are more tolerant than students imagine. Fear does not equate to the presence of a real threat, but the critics of higher education have decided it does. They cite students’ subjective feelings of anxiety or even discomfort as objective evidence that a campus is “unwelcoming” or even “unsafe.” As educators we must preserve a healthy learning environment that exposes students to diverse views without condemning them for the ones they already hold. Challenging their established beliefs, however, requires making them uncomfortable. Without that discomfort there can be no “higher education.”

Can You Stare at a Work of Art for 10 Minutes? -- When the New York Times reporters Larry Buchanan and Francesca Paris read about a Harvard art history professor who directed her students to spend three hours looking at a painting or a sculpture of their choice, they were intrigued. The assignment was designed to force students to slow down, to really focus on what is in front of them.So, Mr. Buchanan and Ms. Paris, who work on The Upshot desk, wondered: Could they recreate this experience virtually for Times readers?“That is the hope of the series: Can we train you to focus? Can we help you think about these things in slightly different ways?” said Mr. Buchanan, who has a fine arts background and whose work often explores the intersection of art and journalism.The first edition in the series titled “Test Your Focus: Can You Spend 10 Minutes With One Painting?” was published in July of last year — and readers, it turned out, were up for the challenge.One in four readers stuck with that painting, James Whistler’s 1871 “Nocturne in Blue and Silver,” for the full 10 minutes — or, at least, kept it open in their browsers.“Giving readers a small but mighty reminder that you can slow down is a pretty powerful thing,” Mr. Buchanan said of the more than 750,000 readers who spent some quality time with Whistler. “We were surprised how many people stayed.” (The highest success rate of the series to date, he said, has been one of the Unicorn Tapestries from the late Middle Ages.)Each new installment in the series, which arrives on the first Monday of each month in the inboxes of newsletter subscribers and also appears online, draws from a mix of well-known and lesser-known work. Past challenges have included an Indian paintingmade in the foothills of the Himalayas in the early 1800s; Pieter Bruegel’s “Hunters in the Snow”; and Vincent van Gogh’s “Starry Night,” a work readers may be familiar with but may have never really considered, Mr. Buchanan said. The most recent edition features the Dutch artist Margareta Haverman’s “A Vase of Flowers.”

No clear link between acetaminophen use during pregnancy, autism: Review — A new review has found no clear link between taking paracetamol, also known as acetaminophen, during pregnancy and a child’s risk of developing autism or ADHD. The findings, published Sunday in the BMJ, come after President Donald Trump warned that using Tylenol during pregnancy can cause autism in children. Trump’s claim is unproven and lacks scientific evidence.Researchers from the University of Liverpool examined nine systematic reviews covering 40 observational studies on paracetamol use in pregnancy and neurodevelopmental outcomes in children. They concluded that the overall quality of evidence connecting paracetamol to neurodevelopmental disorders is “low to critically low.”“We have shown that based on current evidence, there is no clear link between women taking paracetamol during pregnancy and a diagnosis of autism or ADHD in their children,” said study lead and University of Liverpool professor Shakila Thangaratinam. “The findings should help healthcare professionals give evidence-based advice to women, and reassure mothers about the use of paracetamol during pregnancy if indicated.”The review found any associations reported in earlier studies were likely influenced by genetic and environmental factors shared within families, such as parental mental health or lifestyle.

13 cases of infant botulism tied to tainted baby formula -- The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced over the weekend 13 cases of infant botulismtied to infant powder formula made by ByHeart Inc. Infants in 10 states have been sickened, and all required hospitalization. So far no deaths have been reported with this outbreak. On November 8 ByHeart recalled two lots of Whole Nutrition Infant Formula. According to the Food and Drug Administration, ByHeart Whole Nutrition Infant Formula makes up an estimated 1% of all infant formula sales in the United States. The recall is not expected to create national shortages. Illness-onset dates range from mid-August to November. Infants ranged in age from 16 to 157 days. California, Illinois, and Texas each reported two cases, with single cases reported in Arizona, Minnesota, New Jersey, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Washington. Infant botulism occurs when the bacterium Clostridium botulinum infects a baby's large intestine and produces toxin. "Infant botulism often starts with constipation but is usually first noticed as difficulty feeding (sucking and swallowing), a weak and altered cry, and loss of muscle tone," the CDC wrote. "If untreated, infants with infant botulism experience a progressive, flaccid paralysis that can lead to breathing difficulties and require weeks of hospitalization."

Quick takes: More infant botulism cases, measles in Louisiana, Ebola in DR Congo | CIDRAP

• The Associated Press is reporting two more infant botulism cases linked to ByHeart infant powder formula. Now 15 infants in 12 states have been sickened in the outbreak, which began in August. Infants ages 2 weeks to 5 months have all required hospitalization, but no deaths have been recorded.
• Louisiana's health department confirmed the state's third measles case, and said the individual wasexposed to measles while traveling internationally and was infectious while at the Louis Armstrong New Orleans International Airport over the weekend. Late last week, officials in Tennessee said aNashville resident is that state’s eighth measles case this year, the most the state has seen in a decade. The patient was unvaccinated and had traveled recently. This is Nashville's first case in 20 years.
• Today marks the halfway point in the 42-day countdown until the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) can officially declare the recent Ebola outbreak over. The outbreak included 64 people with confirmed or probable Ebola, with 45 deaths.

Fruit Recall as Threat-to-Life Warning Issued - Moonlight Companies, which is based in Reedley, California, is voluntarily recalling certain California-grown yellow and white peaches due to potential contamination with Listeria monocytogenes, a bacterium that can cause serious illness, especially among those who are vulnerable. Listeria can pose serious health risks, particularly for pregnant women, children, elderly individuals, and those with weakened immune systems. It can cause fever, nausea, diarrhea, and in severe cases, miscarriage or fatal infections. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates that each year in the United States, 1,250 people are infected with Listeria, and 172 people die from the infection.The recall announced by the company as well as the FDA applies to peaches sold nationwide between September 16 and October 29.The potentially contaminated peaches include: Moonlight Yellow, Moonlight White, Moonlight White (“Peppermint Peach”), and Kroger Yellow Peaches. The peaches were either sold individually or in multipacks. Affected individually sold peaches will have either a 4401 or 4044 PLU sticker on them. Listeria monocytogenes was identified in the packing facility environment, according to the company statement. No illnesses connected to the recalled peaches have been reported at the time of writing this article. In the announcement, the FDA said: “Although healthy individuals may suffer only short-term symptoms such as high fever, severe headache, stiffness, nausea, abdominal pain, and diarrhea. Listeria infection can cause miscarriages and stillbirths among pregnant women.”The CDC establishes that:“Listeria infection is the third leading cause of death from foodborne illness in the United States.”

Bamboo dishes may leach pesticides and melamine into food -- So-called "eco-friendly" bamboo and other bio-based dishes, often marketed as natural and safe alternatives to plastic, may release potentially harmful chemicals into food, according to a new study led by researchers at the University of Chemistry and Technology, Prague (UCT Prague). The investigation, published in the journal Food Control, found that a significant portion of tested tableware contained the industrial chemical melamine, which migrated into food simulants at levels exceeding legal limits. The comprehensive study analyzed 33 bio-based dishes—including bowls, cups, and dining sets—purchased from markets in the Czech Republic, the United Kingdom, and China. Using advanced analytical techniques, the scientists discovered that melamine was present in 32% of the tested products, almost exclusively in those containing bamboo. The research team performed migration tests to simulate real-world use. The results were concerning: six of the bamboo-based products were found to be non-compliant with European Union regulations, releasing melamine above the specific migration limit (SML) of 2.5 mg/kg. The study further documented that melamine leached into common beverages, including hot lemon tea and orange juice, highlighting a direct route of consumer exposure. "Our findings are a critical warning for consumers who choose bio-based tableware believing it is a safer, more sustainable option," "The 'natural' label can be dangerously misleading. Many of these products are essentially plastic dishes made from melamine-formaldehyde resin containing bamboo filler. Our research shows this combination can accelerate the polymer's degradation and increase the migration of harmful substances like melamine, especially into hot or acidic foods and drinks." Although the use of bamboo as an additive in plastic food contact materials has been banned in the EU since 2021 due to these risks, the study confirms that these items are still available for purchase. The research highlights the false advertising common with these products, which are often labeled as "100% bamboo" or "biodegradable" despite being composed of a plastic resin. Beyond melamine, the non-targeted screening also identified the presence of other contaminants. Several bio-based dishes, particularly those made from cereals, contained residues of pesticides. Disinfectants were the primary residues found in the bamboo-based items. The study concludes that significant safety concerns persist for bio-based tableware and calls for increased vigilance and market surveillance to protect consumers from hazardous and illegally marketed products.

Resistance exercise boosts physical function, quality of life in COVID survivors - Among COVID-19 survivors, resistance exercise significantly improved physical function, well-being, and quality of life, per a randomized clinical trial of 233 adults published yesterday in JAMA Network Open.From June 2021 to April 2024, a team led by University of Glasgow researchers conducted a multicenter trial to determine the effects of a resistance exercise intervention on exercise capacity, health status, and safety among Scottish adults after a hospital or community COVID-19 diagnosis in the preceding year. Intervention recipients (117) and 116 controls received three months of personalized resistance exercise or usual care, respectively. In total, 224 and 193 patients at baseline and three months, respectively, completed Incremental Shuttle Walk Tests. Participants also completed questionnaires on health-related quality of life (HRQoL), anxiety and depression, and grip strength. "Individuals living with long COVID may experience impairments in physical function and skeletal muscle energetics," the researchers wrote. "Skeletal muscle mass and function are reduced with physical inactivity and may increase with resistance exercise." The median patient age was 53.6 years, 62.7% were women, 93.1% were White, 39.1% were hospitalized, and the median adherence with the intervention was 71.0%, equivalent to doing the exercises 5 days a week. The average distance reached in the shuttle walk test was 328 meters (m; 359 yards) for 224 participants at baseline and 389 m (425 yards) for 193 at follow-up. The average change in walk-test distance at three months relative to baseline was 83 m (91 yards) in the intervention group and 47 m (51 yards) in controls (adjusted mean difference, 36.5 m [40 yards]). At three months, relative to controls, greater improvements in intervention recipients were also seen for HRQoL, depression and anxiety, and handgrip strength. No deaths or intervention-related hospitalizations occurred. Among 99 patients who completed the DePaul Symptom Questionnaire, 83.3% of intervention recipients and 82.4% of controls reported postexertional malaise at three months."This pragmatic intervention may be a generalizable therapy for individuals with persisting physical symptoms after COVID-19 infection," the authors wrote.

Kids with eczema may have fewer related infections, allergic complications after COVID vaccination Children with the skin condition atopic dermatitis (AD, or eczema) who are vaccinated against COVID-19 may experience fewer related infections and allergic complications, according to newresearch presented at the recent American College of Allergy, Asthma and Immunology Annual Scientific Meeting in Florida. University of Texas researchers analyzed data from 5,758 vaccinated and the same number of unvaccinated AD patients younger than 17 years matched for demographics and health history to determine if COVID-19 vaccination reduces AD-related infections and complications. "Atopic dermatitis is a chronic skin condition driven by the immune system and often precedes the development of asthma and allergic rhinitis," first author Tristan Nguyen, a medical student, said in the news release. "Children with AD are also at higher risk for infections, including those affecting the skin and respiratory system." Relative to unvaccinated children, those who were vaccinated had significantly fewer infections such as ear infections, pneumonia, bronchitis, bronchiolitis, sinusitis, and upper respiratory infections. Vaccinated children were also at lower risk for allergic conditions such as asthma, allergic rhinitis (hay fever), contact dermatitis, and food-related anaphylaxis (severe allergic reaction to a certain food or foods).The onset of several conditions, including allergic rhinitis, viral infections, and ear infections, was also delayed after COVID-19 vaccination."Our study suggests that COVID-19 vaccination not only protects against coronavirus but may also have broader health benefits for children with atopic dermatitis," principal investigator Zhibo Yang, MD, PhD, said in the release. "We found lower rates of both allergic conditions and infections among vaccinated children compared to their unvaccinated peers. It reinforces the safety and potential added benefits of COVID-19 vaccination in this vulnerable population."

With an absent CDC and mismatched 'subclade K' flu strain, experts face upcoming season with uncertainty -Earlier this month, a group of Canadian researchers published early influenza data for the 2025-26 season, issuing a warning: There has been an observed mismatch with the seasonal influenza vaccine strain and what is emerging as the dominant flu strain this season, H3N2 subclade K.Based on early reports from Japan and the United Kingdom, the Canadian researchers wanted to publish these data to encourage enhanced surveillance in North America this season, especially given the tumultuous situation in the United States. "This is not the time to be flying blind into the respiratory virus season," Danuta Skowronski, MD, the epidemiology lead for influenza and emerging respiratory pathogens at the British Columbia Centre for Disease Control, told CIDRAP News. Skowronski was senior author of the paper, which was published in the Journal of the Association of Medical Microbiology and Infectious Disease Canada."We look to the US to see what is circulating, because it drives what's going on in North America," she said. The US Centers for Disease Control (CDC) has not posted the standard weekly respiratory illness surveillance data since September 26, and it is unknown when or if national surveillance in the country will resume. Skowronski and her colleagues said sequencing information gleaned from the Northern Hemisphere 2024-25 influenza season showed influenza A mutations among emerging Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere H3N2 variants relative to the 2024-25 subclade J and updated 2025-26 subclade J.2 vaccine reference strains, which were used to formulate the current vaccine. H3N2 and H1N1 are both influenza A strains. "This subclade K emerged at the tail end of Southern Hemisphere's season after the WHO [World Health Organization] made the choice of the strain, which is subclass J2," she said. H1N1 predominated the flu season this year in the Southern Hemisphere, with the H3N2 subclade K taking off only at the end. But early data from the United Kingdom and Japan show that the H3N2 subclade K was represented in 90% of flu samples. It's too early to tell what this will mean for the United States, but Skowronski said she and her colleagues do not believe this strain of H3N2 will lead to a pandemic. "This is a major drift, not a shift," she said. "This is the same subtype we have had circulating in human population since 1968. But each season, the virus evolves to evade immunity, and some seasons it's relatively more successful than other seasons." Joshua Petrie, PhD, MPH, associate research scientist at Wisconsin's Marshfield Clinic Research Institute, Center for Clinical Epidemiology and Population Health, said he's not seeing a lot of influenza activity — yet. The flu he and his colleagues have seen is primarily H1N1, but he expects H3N2 will be the dominant strain this year. "The influenza season can take off quickly, and it might sneak up on us you if we you aren't watching what is happening nationally," he said. "CDC also performs the more advanced characterization of circulating influenza viruses in terms of their genetics and how they interact with our existing immunity. These data are used to select viruses that will be represented in next year's vaccine." For now the experts have to wait. Skowronski said it could be that influenza B dominates instead of H3N2, though that's unlikely. In general, said Petrie, H3N2-dominant seasons pack a bigger punch, with lower effectiveness of the vaccine and more severe illness in older adults than in H1N1-dominant years.

RSV vaccine highly effective against hospital admission in older adults, study suggests - A test-negative, case-control study across 14 hospitals in England finds that the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) pre-F (Abrysvo) vaccine helps protect against related hospital admissions in older adults. For the study, published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases, UK researchers identified 1,006 adults aged 75 to 79 hospitalized with acute respiratory illness (ARI) from October 2024 to March 2025. The participants were predominantly White, with a mean age of 80 years and had a high rate of chronic conditions such as heart and respiratory disease and immunosuppression. The researchers found that RSV vaccination was 82.3% effective in protecting against hospital admission for participants with any RSV-associated ARI, 86.7% effective against hospital admissions for those with severe RSV, and 78.8% effective against hospitalization for those with exacerbation of chronic lung disease, heart disease, and/or frailty. In patients with lower respiratory tract infections such as pneumonia, vaccine effectiveness (VE) against hospital admissions was 88.6%. For those with exacerbation chronic lung diseases like chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), VE was 77.4%, and for those with weakened immune systems, VE was 72.8%. "The high vaccine effectiveness observed across different RSV-related presentations and in individuals with a range of underlying comorbid illnesses supports the promotion of high vaccine coverage to reduce RSV-associated illness in adults," The size of the participant pool didn't allow for the assessment of VE against more severe outcomes alone, and because the test was conducted as part of routine clinical care, testing procedures at different hospitals may have varied. In addition, residual confounders like the severity of chronic illness may not be accounted for in the data. The study’s strengths include the test-negative study design, which compares the vaccination status of people who test positive for a disease with those who test negative for it, helping reduce bias from differences in how people seek healthcare for their symptoms.

Pakistani study finds high levels of drug-resistant bacteria in raw milk samples - A study of raw cow and sheep milk in Pakistan found high levels of antibiotic-resistant bacteria, researchers reported yesterday in PLOS One.In the study, researchers from Abdul Wali Khan University Mardan assessed raw milk samples from dairy cattle and ewes for the prevalence ofStaphylococcus epidermidis, a gram-positive bacterium that's a common cause of subclinical mastitis, which can reduce milk quality and yield. They also evaluated antibiotic susceptibility and resistance gene carriage in samples that were positive for S epidermidis, which is known for extensive antimicrobial resistance and its ability to share resistance genes with other staphylococcal species. The study authors note that over 95% of milk in Pakistan is consumed in its raw form. And although S epidermidis is commonly found on human skin and is generally harmless, there is concern that drug-resistant strains in milk could spread resistance genes to more harmful bacteria like methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus. The overall prevalence of subclinical mastitis was 26%, and 40 (12.9%) of the 310 milk samples collected tested positive for S epidermidis. Antibiotic susceptibility tests showed high resistance rates (95%) to penicillin and erythromycin; moderate rates of resistance to cotrimoxazole, doxycycline, clindamycin, and chloramphenicol; and low rates of resistance to levofloxacin and ciprofloxacin. Half of the S epidermidis isolates were classified as multidrug-resistant. Among the resistance genes identified, ermC was most prevalent (87.5%), followed by tetK (80%) and mecA (45%). The authors say widespread use of antibiotics to treat mastitis and other diseases of dairy cattle and sheep likely explains the high levels of resistance. "The presence of multidrug-resistant Staphylococcus epidermidis in raw milk highlights how on-farm antibiotic use directly shapes public health risks," they said in a journal press release. "These findings emphasize the urgent need for responsible antibiotic use and improved hygiene practices in the dairy sector to reduce the risk of antimicrobial resistance transmission through the food chain."

Whooping cough cases skyrocket to record high in Texas -- More than 3,500 cases of pertussis, or whooping cough, have been reported in Texas so far this year, according to state figures, roughly four times the number as last year and the highest since 2013. This is the second consecutive year that Texas is experiencing high year-over-year increases in reported pertussis cases. With about seven weeks left in the year, those numbers are likely to grow. Whooping cough is a highly contagious, vaccine-preventable disease that’s particularly dangerous for the youngest infants. Babies younger than 6 months are most at risk because they’re too young to be fully vaccinated. About one-third of babies younger than 12 months with pertussis need treatment in a hospital. Cases in Texas and across the country were lower than usual during and immediately following the COVID-19 pandemic but have quickly rebounded in the past few years. Texas reported just 340 cases in 2023. Last year, that increased to 1,907 cases, with more than half of them occurring in November and December, according to provisional data. This is the second consecutive year the state’s health agency said it has had to issue a health alert. Preliminary data from the Texas state health agency indicate about 85 percent of pertussis cases in Texas this year have occurred among children, but no deaths have been reported. The sharp rise in cases comes amid declining vaccination rates for the disease in Texas and nationwide. Infectious disease experts say immunization is the best way to prevent catching it and control the spread.

Canada loses measles elimination status after record year of outbreaks After 12 months of prolonged transmission that began in New Brunswick and took hold in Ontario and Alberta, Canada today lost its measles elimination status, as designated by the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), which is part of the World Health Organization.The loss was announced during a PAHO webinar. By default, the Americas region, which had obtained measles elimination status, also lost that designation. Sustained transmission for 12 or more months with the same strain of the virus, drop in vaccination rates, and loss of surveillance can all contribute to the loss of elimination status, PAHO said. "This loss represents a setback—but it is also reversible," said PAHO Director Jarbas Barbosa, MD, PhD, MPH, in a statement. "Until measles is eliminated worldwide, our Region will continue to face the risk of reintroduction and spread of the virus among unvaccinated or under-vaccinated populations. However, as we have demonstrated before, with political commitment, regional cooperation, and sustained vaccination, the Region can once again interrupt transmission and reclaim this collective achievement." In PAHO's Americas region, which includes the United States, measles cases have increased 30-fold in 2025 compared to 2024. Many experts warn that the United States will follow in Canada's footsteps in January 2026 and lose elimination status on the first anniversary of the beginning of a large West Texas measles outbreak. "It's incredibly disappointing to be on this list [of countries with active measles outbreaks], because it's a list with countries torn apart by war and unrest," she said. "Today speaks to a number of systems that have been strained and need to be supported." Bowdish said people want to attribute the measles resurgence in Canada to misinformation, but she said the issue is more often one of vaccine access and regional differences in healthcare. "We have challenges in having enough family doctors, and we have a lot of healthcare provincially administrated, and we've seen decreased public health funding and outreach to religious and rural communities," Bowdish said. According to the latest updates from Canadian officials, 23 measles cases were reported in the last week of October, with 5,162 confirmed measles cases year-to-date. Two preterm infants who were exposed congenitally to measles have died.

Canada loses measles elimination status after ongoing outbreaks -- Canada is no longer measles-free because of ongoing outbreaks, international health experts said Monday, as childhood vaccination rates fall and the highly contagious virus spreads across North and South America. The loss of the country’s measles elimination status comes more than a year after the highly contagious virus started spreading. Canada has logged 5,138 measles cases this year and two deaths. Both were babies who were exposed to the measles virus in the womb and born prematurely. Measles elimination is a symbolic designation, but it represents a hard-won battle against the infectious disease. It is earned when a country shows it stopped continuous spread of the virus within local communities, though occasional cases might still pop up from travel. Measles typically begins with a high fever followed by a telltale rash that starts on the face and neck. Most people recover, but it’s one of the leading causes of death among young children, according to the World Health Organization. Serious complications, including blindness and swelling of the brain, are more common in young children and adults over age 30. It is prevented by a vaccine administered routinely and safely to children around the world. “It’s a deeply disheartening development. It’s a deeply worrisome development. And, frankly, it’s an embarrassing development,” said Jennifer Nuzzo, a Brown University infectious disease expert. “No country with the amount of resources of Canada — or other countries in North America even — should lose their measles elimination status.” Vaccination campaigns led to elimination Canada eliminated measles in 1998, followed by the United States two years later. After hugely successful vaccination campaigns, the Americas became the first region in the world to be free of measles in 2016. Health officials estimate the measles vaccine prevented 6.2 millions deaths in the Americas between 2000 and 2023. But vaccination rates have since slipped below the 95% coverage rate needed to stop outbreaks. Large outbreaks in Venezuela and Brazil in 2018 and 2019 cost the region its elimination status. It was reclaimed in 2024, but ends again with Canada’s loss. Experts from the Pan American Health Organization, an independent health agency, made the determination after analyzing data on Canada’s outbreaks that showed the virus has spread continuously for a year.

Measles count climbs in Arizona-Utah, South Carolina outbreaks -Arizona and Utah reported an increase in measles case counts today, as did South Carolina, according to state dashboards. The outbreak that straddles the Utah-Arizona border has now grown to 182 cases, and is the second largest measles outbreak this year following the West Texas outbreak, which sickened at least 762 people, with three deaths. Arizona has 128 measles cases, 17 more than last week, with 124 cases in Mohave County. The state reported its first measles cases in June.Mohave County is home to Colorado City, which has been the epicenter of measles activity during this outbreak, along with neighboring Hildale, Utah, which is in southwest Utah.The Utah Department of Health & Human Services said there were now 74 measles cases in the state, with 58 in southwest Utah, seven more than last week.The Upstate outbreak in South Carolina also grew, with eight more cases reported by the South Carolina Department of Public Health today. The state total is now 46. Six of the eight new patients are household members of previously identified patients. All new patients are in quarantine. Two cases, however, occurred within the same household, but the source of infection is unknown."The unidentified source of the two new cases reinforces our concern about potential ongoing community transmission, and we are reminding people that travel for the upcoming holidays increases the risk of exposures greatly for those traveling and for those accepting visitors," officials said. "We encourage people to get vaccinated now to prevent measles from disrupting your holiday plans."

With 42 news measles cases, US total tops 1,700 - The number of measles cases nationwide has risen by 42 the in past week, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported today in its latest update. There are now 1,723 confirmed measles cases this year, reported by 43 jurisdictions. Eighty-seven percent of measles cases are outbreak-associated, and there have been 45 US outbreaks in 2025. Among measles patients, 92% have been unvaccinated or had an unknown vaccine status. Only 4% have received both doses of measles-containing vaccine. Last year the United States had 285 measles cases. US measles activity is the highest it has been since measles was declared eliminated in the country in 2000. Earlier this week, Canada lost its elimination status after it failed to contain a nationwide outbreak for 12 months that has topped 5,000 infections. This dubious milestone also meant a loss of elimination status for the entire Americas region. The United States will be on track to follow Canada in January 2026, which will mark 12 months since a large West Texas measles outbreak began. Current hot spots include the Utah-Arizona border and Upstate South Carolina.

Mpox infection triggers stronger, longer-term protection than vaccination, study suggests -Infection with the mpox virus (MPXV) confers strong immunity against future infection for up to two years, compared with vaccine-conferred protection, which wanes with time and requires boosting, researchers in Belgium and the Netherlands reported late last week in The Lancet Infectious Diseases.The investigators evaluated the long-term clinical consequences of mpox infection in adults; the continued presence of the virus in saliva, semen, and the anorectal area; and long-term antibody dynamics post-infection versus that after receipt of the Jynneos smallpox/mpox vaccine. The study period began in 2022, with enrollment of participants in a clinical registry with 1-month post-infection follow-up in May and a long-term follow-up study with a parallel group of adult recipients of two doses of Jynneos (or one dose if vaccinated against smallpox in childhood) from August 2022 to January 2023. Of 250 infected participants, 237 were enrolled (199 prospectively and 38 retrospectively). Among 1,728 Jynneos recipients, 210 were enrolled (209 prospectively and one retrospectively). In total, 47% of 237 infected participants attended follow-up at eight months, 57% at 16 months, and 27% at 24 months. In the Jynneos group, 98% of 210 adults attended follow-up at eight months, 77% at 16 months, and 69% at 24 months. Median participant age was 40 years, and 96% were men. Scarring occurred in 46% of 71 mpox patients at month eight, 30% of 57 at month 16, and 32% of 63 at month 24. Other symptoms mostly resolved within a year. All saliva and anorectal swabs were negative for MPXV throughout follow-up, and all 23 semen swabs tested negative at month eight. Also in month eight, Jynneos recipients not vaccinated against smallpox had lower binding antibody concentrations than those with mpox infection, and MPXV neutralizing antibodies were detected in 4%; intradermal vaccination elicited lower binding antibody concentrations than subcutaneous vaccination.

Quick takes: Polio in German wastewater, cholera in Africa, antimicrobial resistance in England | CIDRAP

• The Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) said in its weekly update that a wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1)-positive sample was isolated from wastewater in Hamburg, Germany, this week. The sample has been linked to a WPV1 strain last identified in Kandahar, Afghanistan, in August. No associated cases of paralysis have been detected in Germany, and the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control said the risk to Europeans is low given the high rates of vaccination in the region. GPEI said it's working with German health officials to support ongoing investigations. GPEI also reported new cases of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) in Chad and Nigeria. The two cases reported in Chad bring the country's cVDPV2 total for 2025 to 20 cases. Nigeria added five new cases, bringing its total for the year to 50.
• Officials with the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) said yesterday at their weekly briefing that the current cholera outbreak is the continent's worst in 25 years. Through early November, 303,953 cases of the highly contagious bacterial infection have been reported in Africa, with 7,013 deaths—a 30% increase in cases compared with last year and nearly three times the number reported in 2022. The Democratic Republic of the Congo, Sudan, and South Sudan have been the hardest-hit countries, accounting for 70% of cases, but Angola and Burundi have also reported major increases in recent weeks.
• The number of bloodstream infections caused by drug-resistant bacteria rose by 9.3% in England from 2023 to 2024, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) reported this week in its annual surveillance report on antimicrobial use and resistance. The increase was primarily driven by rising incidence of Escherichia coli bloodstream infections, which accounted for 70.5% of all drug-resistant bloodstream infections. The UKHSA report also noted that the rate of drug-resistant bloodstream infections was 47.2% higher in areas with the highest levels of social deprivation compared with the lowest levels. Total antibiotic consumption in 2024 was 2% lower than the 2019 pre-pandemic level.

WHO deploys aid to Ethiopia after 8 suspected cases of viral hemorrhagic fever reported - Eight suspected cases of viral hemorrhagic fever of unidentified cause in Ethiopia have prompted the World Health Organization (WHO) to dispatch a team of responders and deliver medical supplies to the southern part of the country, near its border with South Sudan.In a news release today, WHO Africa said that Ethiopian health authorities are ramping up their response and conducting lab tests to identify the cause of the infection and stop further transmission."To support the national authorities, WHO is deploying a multi-disciplinary team of 11 technical officers with experience in responding to viral haemorrhagic fever outbreaks to help strengthen disease surveillance, investigation, laboratory testing, infection prevention and control, clinical care, outbreak response coordination and community engagement," the WHO wrote.Ethiopia's Health Ministry will likely announce the results of the ongoing investigation tomorrow, according to media reports.The WHO is providing essential supplies such as personal protective equipment for healthcare workers, infection-prevention materials, and a rapidly deployable isolation tent to improve clinical care and boost management capacity. The organization has also released $300,000 from its Contingency Fund for Emergencies to provide immediate support and is marshaling technical capacity to support the response. Viral hemorrhagic fevers, a group of epidemic-prone diseases caused by several distinct families of viruses, include Marburg, Ebola, Crimean Congo hemorrhagic fever, and Lassa fever. Signs and symptoms vary by virus, but initially they often include high fever, fatigue, dizziness, muscle aches, weakness, and exhaustion. All cases, whether single or in clusters, should be immediately reported to health authorities without waiting for identification of the causative pathogen, the WHO said.

New Jersey man's death first one to be tied to tick-related meat allergy - A previously healthy New Jersey man has been identified by an allergist at the University of Virginia (UVA) and his coauthors as suffering the first documented fatality from alpha-gal syndrome, a meat allergy triggered by tick bites. The case study was published in the Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology in Practice yesterday. The allergy is caused by the bite of the lone star tick, which can sensitize people to alpha-gal, a sugar found in mammalian meat, including beef, lamb, and pork. People with alpha-gal syndrome show allergic symptoms such as rash, nausea and vomiting after eating such meat. Though deadly anaphylaxis had been considered a theoretical outcome of the allergy, it had not yet been seen until this case. The man's name has not been released, but he was 47 years old and did not know tick bites had trigged an allergy to meat. Last summer he became severely ill three hours after eating steak during a camping trip. Two weeks later, he was found dead after eating a hamburger at a barbecue. The cause of death was ruled "sudden unexplained death," after an autopsy was inconclusive, but the man's wife gave the autopsy report to a doctor, who reached out to Thomas Platts-Mills, MD, PhD, the former chief of UVA Health’s Division of Asthma, Allergy and Clinical Immunology and first author of the case report. Platts-Mills first identified alpha-gal syndrome in 2007 and is considered the foremost expert on the allergy. In post-mortem blood samples, Platts-Mills found that the man had been sensitized to alpha-gal, and had had an extreme reaction, in line with what is seen in fatal anaphylaxis. Platts-Mills told CIDRAP news that the man's tryptase level, a marker for mast-cell activation in allergic reactions, was 2,000 milligrams per milliliter. The highest tryptase level he had previously seen was 90. Platts-Mills said the man's wife reported he did not have recent tick bites, but had 12 or 13 chigger bites around his ankles the summer he became ill. Platts-Mills said many "chigger bites" in the Eastern United States are actually bites from lone star tick larvae. "It is important that both doctors and patients who live in an area of the country where lone star ticks are common should be aware of the risk of sensitization," Platts-Mills said in a UVA press release. "More specifically, if they have unexpected episodes of severe abdominal pain occurring several hours after eating mammalian meat, they should be investigated for possible sensitization to the oligosaccharide alpha-gal." The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates nearly 450,000 people may be affected in the United States. The number could be higher, as some people will have only mild symptoms, and, unlike most allergies, reactions are delayed and only appear hours after eating meat. Platts-Mills said that most cases of alpha-gal syndrome are still diagnosed on the East Coast, but the tick has been identified as far inland as Indiana, and he expects further spread.

Preliminary human bird flu case reported in Washington state -An individual in Washington state has preliminarily tested positive for H5N1 avian influenza, state health officials said yesterday. If confirmed, it will be the first human bird flu case in the United States since February.In a news release, officials with the Washington State Department of Health said the case-patient is an older adult from Grays Harbor County with underlying health conditions. The person was hospitalized after developing a high fever, confusion, and respiratory distress in early November and continues to receive treatment. Confirmatory testing from the Washington State Public Health Laboratories is pending, and state and county officials are working to determine the potential sources of infection. The last US human bird flu case was reported on February 14 in Platte County, Wyoming. On February 12, health officials in Ohio reported that state's first human H5N1 case. Both case patients were exposed through contact with infected poultry. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), 70 human H5N1 cases, including one death, were confirmed in the United States from 2024 through July of this year, primarily in workers on poultry and dairy farms. The latter were sickened by an outbreak strain spreading in dairy cattle. Person-to-person transmission of avian flu is rare and has never been documented in the United States.Meanwhile, commercial poultry operations around the country continue to get hit with H5N1 outbreaks. In the latest update from the US Department of Agriculture's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS), Indiana has reported 14 new outbreaks, primarily in commercial duck meat and duck breeder operations in LaGrange County. Indiana is the leading duck producer in the country.State health officials in Indiana say 41 commercial poultry farms with a total of 539,810 birds in the northern part of the state have been affected since October 9, Hoosier Ag Today reports. Commercial turkey meat operations and backyard flocks in Michigan have also been hit by H5N1 outbreaks, along with backyard flocks in New Hampshire and Texas.H5N1 detections are higher in the fall and spring, as wild birds spread the virus during their migration. Over the last 30 days, 76 confirmed flocks (38 commercial and 38 backyard) have been hit by H5N1 outbreaks, and 1.66 million birds have been affected, according to APHIS.

More avian flu detected on Indiana duck, chicken farms -- Yesterday the US Department of Agriculture's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) reported seven more avian flu detections on commercial poultry farms, including three in Lagrange County, Indiana, which has had six major detections in poultry since the end of October. APHIS said two commercial duck meat farms in Lagrange County, with 8,400 and 8,300 birds, respectively, were hit with avian flu, as was a commercial table egg-layer facility with 18,300 birds. In Allegan County, Michigan, a turkey meat farm with 35,600 birds was also struck with avian flu. APHIS also noted infected backyard flocks in California, Oregon, and Virginia. In the past 30 days officials have confirmed highly pathogenic avian flu in 31 commercial flocks and 31 backyard flocks across the United States. Indiana, Michigan, and Minnesota have seen the most activity, and at least 1.65 million birds have been affected nationwide.

Avian flu has decimated world's largest breeding colony of southern elephant seals -- Since highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) spread to the island of South Georgia in the sub-Antarctic in 2023, its breeding population of female southern elephant seals—the world's largest—has plummeted by nearly half, scientists reported yesterday in Communications Biology.The researchers, from the British Antarctic Survey in England, said the loss may threaten the population's future by reducing the number of surviving pups. It also underscores the need for continued, intensive monitoring to track HPAIV's long-term effects on this species. During the 2022 and 2024 breeding seasons, the team monitored elephant seal populations at breeding colonies on South Georgia, in the South Atlantic Ocean, using aerial imagery from three beaches, which made up 15.6% of the island's colony at the last population count in 1995. When comparing the 2024 population to long-term average counts conducted from 1958 to 2022, the researchers saw a 33.7% decline in the projected number of females, with a 47% decrease in the number of breeding females on the three beaches from 2022 to 2024. Scaled up to the entire island's population, the team estimated that about 53,000 females were absent in 2024. For comparison, historical interannual variations usually remain within 10% locally and in similar Southern Ocean populations. South Georgia, which includes the South Sandwich and Falkland islands, is one of four principal breeding locations for the Mirounga leonina seal species in the Southern Ocean, harboring about 54% of the global breeding population as of 1995. Southern elephant seals are the largest type of seal.The authors noted that HPAIV has caused mass mortalities in marine mammals and seabirds in South America, including a 67% drop in the female elephant seal population of Argentina's Valdes Peninsula. The population decline could be related to the conditions of the HPAIV-affected 2023 breeding season, which led to numerous pup deaths and/or abandonments in addition to deaths among adult males and females, the researchers said. Alternatively, the emergence of HPAIV in the population may have spurred females to return to outlier colonies in 2024, dispersing the population more widely and lowering counts at their usual beaches.

Allergan joins Michigan's CWD-positive county list with detection in young doe An emaciated 1.5-year-old doe that Allergan County, Michigan, private landowners reported in late summer has tested positive forchronic wasting disease (CWD), pushing the state's CWD-positive county tally to 17.Yesterday, the Michigan Department of Natural Resources (DNR) said the Wisconsin Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory confirmed the test result. The sample has also been sent to the US Department of Agriculture's National Veterinary Services Laboratory in Ames, Iowa, for confirmation of the fatal neurologic disease. The deer, which was in poor physical condition with no body fat, was euthanized in late September, the DNR said. "Public reporting of deer that appear unhealthy is very important for identifying CWD that may exist at low levels in previously undetected areas." The detection occurred in Leighton Township, in northwestern Allegan County, adjacent to CWD-positive Kent County. Allegan County was under focused CWD surveillance in 2021, when roughly 500 deer were tested, with negative results. CWD has also been found in Clinton, Dickinson, Eaton, Genesee, Gratiot, Hillsdale, Ingham, Ionia, Isabella, Jackson, Kent, Mecosta, Midland, Montcalm, Ogemaw, and Washtenaw counties. Since the disease was first detected in Michigan in 2015, "more than 144,000 wild deer have been tested through DNR surveillance efforts that started in 2002, with 265 CWD-positive deer identified," the release said, reflecting a 0.2% detection rate. "In addition, since direct hunter submissions of deer to the MSU [Michigan State University] lab began in 2020, more than 3,400 submitted samples have yielded 61 additional confirmed positives." CWD, which affects cervids such as deer, elk, and moose, is caused by infectious misfolded proteins called prions. It spreads from cervid to cervid and through environmental contamination. The disease is not known to infect people, but authorities advise against eating meat from infected cervids and urge caution when field-dressing or processing their carcasses.

State Department issues warning in Japan after bears kill 13 since April - The U.S. State Department has warned Americans traveling to Japan to watch their surroundings after more than a dozen people have been killed by bears in the country so far in 2025. Japanese authorities closed Maruyama Park in Sapporo, close to the U.S. Consulate General, for two weeks after bears were spotted in the park, according to a Wednesday alert from the U.S. Embassy and Consulates in Japan. Since April, 13 people have died in bear attacks, with Akita and nearby Iwate being most affected, AFP reported. This prompted the deployment of Japanese troops to the northern Akita region on Nov. 8.“Bear sightings and attacks have increased in parts of Japan, especially in municipalities close to or adjacent to populated zones,” the embassy’s alert read. “Although the Consulate is located outside of the park, we encourage all visitors for routine or other services to be diligent and aware of your surroundings.”Residential areas in Hokkaido and Akita have also seen bears, which could lead to more park closures.The embassy urges travelers to avoid areas where bear sightings have been reported and to not walk alone if in those areas. People who spot a bear should report it to local authorities. Travelers can enroll in the Smart Traveler Enrollment Program to receive security messages; the program also helps local authorities locate travelers in an emergency. Troops deployed in affected areas will not carry firearms because of Japan’s strict gun laws. They will instead carry bear sprays, sticks, shields, goggles, bullet-proof jackets and net launchers, according to AFP.

Long-term analysis yields clearer picture of toxin-producing blue-green algae blooms -A long-term analysis shows that a major Oregon reservoir abruptly swapped one type of toxic algae for another midway through the 12-year study period, absent any obvious cause. The project provides a novel look at harmful algal blooms (HABs), which pose multiple health risks to people and animals worldwide. The study is published in the journal Harmful Algae. Harmful algal blooms in lakes and reservoirs are explosions of cyanobacteria, often referred to as blue-green algae. Microscopic organisms ubiquitous in all types of water around the globe, cyanobacteria use sunlight to make their own food and in warm, nutrient-rich environments can quickly multiply, resulting in blooms that spread across the water's surface. Some types of cyanobacteria produce liver toxins and neurotoxins, while others make toxins that can cause gastrointestinal illness if swallowed and acute rashes upon contact with skin. "Not every cyanobacterial bloom is toxic, but it is always wise to follow the rule of avoiding contact when there's green growth in the water," . "Potential exposure to cyanotoxins is of public health concern, and blooms particularly pose a threat to dogs entering lakes."The body of water in the study, Detroit Reservoir in the Cascade Range foothills, is a popular recreation spot and also the source of drinking water for Oregon's capital city of Salem and other communities downstream of Detroit Dam on the North Santiam River. In earlier research, Dreher identified the specific cyanotoxins, and the organisms that make them, involved in a 2018 water scare in Salem. Genetic analysis revealed the culprit organisms were two strains of Dolichospermum cyanobacteria, one producing a type of cylindrospermopsin and the other making an uncommon form of microcystin. Microcystin is a recognized liver toxin and potential liver carcinogen, while cylindrospermopsin can affect multiple organs. Microcystin is generally considered the more dangerous of the two, but both represent health hazards. In early summer 2018, low concentrations of microcystin and cylindrospermopsin were found in finished tap water in Salem, prompting a do-not-drink advisory for vulnerable individuals including infants and pregnant women. The Salem episode followed the death of more than 30 steers from drinking cyanotoxin-tainted water from Junipers Reservoir in June 2017, and since then state officials have improved the state's ability to detect and respond to blooms, Dreher said.In the most recent study, Dreher and collaborators examined the population stability of Detroit Reservoir's cyanobacteria using data collected by the city of Salem over many years of monitoring, together with additional genetic analysis."We found that the lake underwent a regime shift in 2018, switching from one where cylindrospermopsin was the main concern to one in which microcystin is the main concern," he said. "Our case study shows that dominant strain stability is the norm, but sudden population shifts can occur without an obvious cause."The change in toxin status was caused by changes in the accumulations of the two previously identified Dolichospermum strains. We know the toxin producers and don't have any gaps in understanding the toxin status of the lake, so downstream water utilities will be able to use genetic monitoring tools to track the toxin producers, which could provide early warning of a toxic bloom."

Bees learn to read simple 'Morse code' -Researchers at Queen Mary University of London have shown for the first time that an insect—the bumblebee Bombus terrestris—can decide where to forage for food based on different durations of visual cues. Their paper is published in the journal Biology Letters. In Morse code, a short duration flash or "dot" denotes a letter "E" and a long duration flash, or "dash," means letter "T." Until now, the ability to discriminate between "dot" and "dash" has been seen only in humans and other vertebrates such as macaques or pigeons. Ph.D. student Alex Davidson and his supervisor Dr. Elisabetta Versace, Senior Lecturer in Psychology at Queen Mary, led a team that studied this ability in bees. They built a special maze to train individual bees to find a sugar reward at one of two flashing circles, shown with either a long or short flash duration. For instance, when the short flash, or "dot," was associated with sugar, then the long flash, or "dash," was instead associated with a bitter substance that bees dislike. In each room in the maze, the position of the dot and dash stimulus was changed, so that bees could not rely on spatial cues to orient their choices. After bees learned to go straight to the flashing circle paired with the sugar, they were tested with flashing lights but no sugar present, to check whether bees' choices were driven by the flashing light, rather than by olfactory or visual cues present in the sugar. It was clear the bees had learned to tell the light apart based on their duration, as most of them went straight to the 'correct' flashing light duration previously associated with sugar, irrespective of spatial location of the stimulus.

Trump administration presses Western states to find consensus on shrinking Colorado River -- Negotiators for seven Western states are under mounting pressure to reach an agreement outlining how they plan to share the Colorado River's dwindling water. The Trump administration gave the states a Tuesday deadline to agree on the initial terms of a plan for cutting water use to prevent the river's reservoirs from declining to dangerously low levels. Because California uses more Colorado River water than any other state, it will play a central role in any deal to take less from the river. "California is committed to being constructive at the table, advancing ideas and solutions to be able to get us to sustainability and avoid conflict," said J.B. Hamby, California's Colorado River commissioner. "What it takes now is for folks to be able to roll up their sleeves and make tough decisions and compromises." Representatives of the seven states where cities and farms depend on the river have been meeting regularly over the last two years trying to come up with a plan for addressing water shortages after 2026, when the current rules expire. Persistent disagreements have pitted the three states of the river's lower basin—California, Arizona and Nevada—against the four upper-basin states—Colorado, Utah, Wyoming and New Mexico. They disagree not only on whose water should be cut, and how much, but also over how much water should be released from Lake Powell, a key reservoir upstream from the Grand Canyon.Officials representing the states and the federal government are scheduled to hold another round of talks Monday and Tuesday. As with other negotiating sessions, where they are meeting is kept secret. The Colorado River provides water for cities from Denver to San Diego, 30 Native tribes and farming communities from the Rocky Mountains to northern Mexico. The Colorado has long been overused, with so much water taken out that for decades the river has seldom met the sea, transforming once-vast wetlands in Mexico into stretches of dry sand.The river's reservoirs have declined dramatically amid unrelenting dry conditions over the last quarter-century, leaving the man-made lakes far below a coating of whitish minerals on rocks, where water once lapped.Scientists found that the last 25 years have likely been the driest quarter-century in 1,200 years. And research has shown that the warming climate, driven largely by the use of fossil fuels, has intensified the long stretch of mostly dry years.Lake Mead, the river's largest reservoir, is now just 31% full. And Lake Powell, the river's second-largest reservoir, is at 29% of capacity.The Trump administration, through the Interior Department and the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation operates the giant dams along the river.Participants in the talks say federal officials gave them a Nov. 11 deadline to agree on key principles in several areas. The Trump administration hasn't publicly spelled out what it will do if the states fail to reach a consensus. A spokesperson for the Interior Department said in an email that "we remain focused on achieving a seven-state agreement" that would "maximize flexibility and cooperation in managing the Colorado River and best serve the 40 million people who depend on it."

Colorado River negotiations blow past deadline - State negotiators failed to meet a Tuesday deadline to reach an initial agreement over future operations of the drought-stricken Colorado River, but the Trump administration indicated it will allow states to continue bargaining. The Trump administration had previously threatened that if the seven states that share the river did not come to a deal, the Interior Department could step in to decide how to impose cuts to water use. Interior, the Bureau of Reclamation and the states — Arizona, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Utah and Wyoming — issued a joint statement Tuesday evening on the status of negotiations following a two-day meeting in Phoenix. “While more work needs to be done, collective progress has been made that warrants continued efforts to define and approve details for a finalized agreement,” the statement said. “Through continued cooperation and coordinated action, there is a shared commitment to ensuring the long-term sustainability and resilience of the Colorado River system.” Neither Interior nor Reclamation responded to questions about how much additional time states will be granted to continue their negotiations, which have spanned nearly two years at this point. Acting Reclamation Commissioner Scott Cameron had initially set a Nov. 11 deadline for states to reach a high-level agreement, with final details due in February 2026. Decades of persistent drought has shrunk flows in the Colorado River, reducing the available water by as much as 20 percent since 2000. That has prompted a series of short-term deals to reduce water use among the states.

Texas dam compromised as officials plead for residents to evacuate -- Officials in southeast Texas are urging evacuated residents to stay away from their homes after an eight-inch hole was discovered in a major dam. Those living south of the Carter Lake dam in Camden, around 70 miles north of Houston, were first notified to leave their homes on Saturday night following concerns that the dam had been compromised. Authorities said a resident in the area had reported “rushing water leaking from the dam”. Emergency crews went door to door, warning residents to evacuate after a hole was discovered in a nearby embankment. Now, residents are being urged to stay away for a further three days, with emergency shelters established to house those displaced. In a statement, Polk County Office of Emergency Management (OEM) said the dam’s owners have now employed engineers who are working to pump water out of the lake to assess the damage. “The goal is to reduce the lake's water level about another 2 ft. from where it is currently to give the dam's property owners a better view of the extent of the damage,” it wrote. “Pumping crews will be monitoring the pumps overnight, and Emergency response partners will be monitoring the area of concern throughout the night. “The dam's property owners hope to begin conversations with an engineering firm tomorrow. The County estimates that it may take up to 3 days to know the extent of the damage and receive assurance from the engineer that the dam is stable and it's safe for residents to return home. “Persons residing in the evacuation area are encouraged to avoid the area until further notice.” Officials told local media that there are believed to be around 20-30 houses in the impacted area. The flash flood warning will remain in place in the area until 6:00 pm local time on Monday. So far, there have been no reports of flooding, with a “steady” trickle of water coming from the dam since Saturday, officials have said. A shelter has been set up in a local gym in Livingston.

Lake-effect snow drops up to 33 cm (13 inches) of snow in parts of Wisconsin - (video) A narrow band of lake-effect snow off Lake Michigan dropped over 25 cm (10 inches) of snow overnight in Pleasant Prairie, parts of Racine and Kenosha counties, Wisconsin, on Monday, November 10, 2025. Lake-effect snow struck southeastern Wisconsin overnight Sunday into Monday, November 9–10, with the heaviest accumulation focused along the immediate Lake Michigan shoreline. Kenosha and Racine counties reported totals of around 25 cm (10 inches), while Pleasant Prairie reported the highest total of 33 cm (13 inches), by Monday morning. Meanwhile, Kenosha recorded 24.1 inches (9.5 inches) of snow, Elmwood and Windpoint reported 26.6 cm (10.5 inches) each, according to WISN 12. The heavy snowfall led to several school closures on Monday, including the Kenosha Unified School District. The National Weather Service in Milwaukee/Sullivan issued a Winter Weather Advisory from 19:00 CST Sunday, November 9, through 08:00 CST on Monday, for Milwaukee, Racine, and Kenosha counties, warning of hazardous travel due to rapid accumulation and reduced visibility. The event was caused by a lake-effect setup, with cold north-northwesterly air crossing the relatively warmer surface of Lake Michigan and generating a narrow convective snow band. Within that corridor, snow rates reached about 2.5 cm (1 inch) per hour or higher. Road conditions were snow-covered near the lakeshore early Monday, and blowing snow reduced visibility during the morning commute. Farther inland, accumulations were light and roads mostly wet. Temperatures remained below freezing through the morning, producing cold, blustery conditions.

Heavy lake-effect snow creates whiteout conditions, disrupts travel south of Chicago - (video) Powerful bands of lake-effect snow brought traffic on parts of Interstate 57 (I-57) south of Chicago, Illinois, to a standstill amid whiteout conditions on the morning of November 10, 2025. The National Weather Service (NWS) warned drivers to use extreme caution as snowfall rates exceeded 7 cm/h (3 in/h) in localized bands, producing near-zero visibility and hazardous travel across portions of northeastern Illinois. Heavy lake-effect snow developed over the western Great Lakes region overnight into Monday morning, November 10, as cold air moved across the relatively warm surface of Lake Michigan. The resulting snow bands extended inland, aligning over portions of northeastern Illinois and producing intense snowfall along corridors including Interstate 57 south of Chicago. According to the National Weather Service (NWS) in Chicago, narrow snow bands produced snowfall rates of more than 7 cm/h (3 in/h), leading to dangerous to impossible travel conditions. The agency cautioned that travel was not advised within active lake-effect bands, which periodically refocused near Interstate 55 and 57 before shifting eastward later in the morning. CBS Chicago reported that poor to no visibility was observed along I-57 south of the city during the early morning hours, with vehicles forced to slow or stop amid whiteout conditions. Local broadcasts showed vehicles stranded in accumulating snow while plows attempted to clear lanes. The Illinois Department of Transportation (IDOT) reported widespread snow-covered and slippery roadways across Cook, Will, and Kankakee counties. However, no official closure notice for I-57 was issued as of midday, and no major injury incidents had been confirmed.

Freeze warnings extend from Florida to Maryland as early-season cold blast grips the East - The National Weather Service has issued widespread Freeze Warnings from northern Florida to Maryland as sub-freezing temperatures spread across the eastern United States on November 11–12, 2025. Overnight lows between -6 and -1 °C (22 and 30 °F) are forecast across much of the region, marking the coldest air of the season so far. Millions are under freeze warnings from inland northern Florida through Georgia, the Carolinas, Virginia, and into southern Maryland as of November 11. The alerts cover multiple National Weather Service (NWS) forecast offices, including Jacksonville, Raleigh, and Baltimore/Washington, with sub-freezing temperatures expected through early Wednesday morning in several inland and coastal areas. In North Carolina, the NWS Raleigh office reported forecast lows of -6 to -1°C (22–30°F), while the Baltimore/Washington office anticipates -3 to -1°C (27–30°F) in parts of Maryland and northern Virginia. Inland portions of Florida and southern Georgia are also under warnings, with local lows near freezing. The event is linked to an early-season outbreak of Arctic air that moved southward from central Canada behind a strong cold front. A high-pressure ridge centered over the southeastern states is causing radiational cooling, allowing temperatures to fall rapidly under clear skies. This marks one of the first widespread freezes of the season across the region. NWS advisories caution that frost and freeze conditions could damage or destroy crops and sensitive plants, particularly across agricultural areas of northern Florida and southern Georgia. Residents are urged to protect exposed pipes and bring pets indoors. Several municipalities have opened temporary cold-weather shelters to mitigate risks for unhoused populations. Forecast discussions indicate that the cold air mass will linger into midweek before a gradual warming trend begins as the high pressure shifts eastward.

Miami ties 112-year-old record low as Florida experiences early-November chill - Miami recorded 9.4°C (49°F) early on November 11, 2025, matching a record low for the day set 112 years ago, as an Arctic front brought widespread sub-freezing temperatures. An early-season surge of Arctic air reached southern Florida on November 11, delivering record-low temperatures across parts of the Southeast and bringing Miami the coldest November 11 morning in 112 years. According to the National Weather Service (NWS) Miami, the minimum temperature at Miami International Airport fell to 8.9°C (48°F) shortly before sunrise on November 11, tying the previous record set in 1913. The normal minimum for November 11 is 20.6°C (69°F), placing this year’s value roughly 11°C (20°F) below average. Naples also set a record for the daily lowest minimum temperature, with the Naples Municipal Airport recording 6.67°C (44°F). This broke the previous record of 8.33°C (47°F) set back in 1993. Other parts of Florida also experienced unusually cold early-morning temperatures. Temperatures reportedly dropped to –2°C (about 28°F) in northern counties and to around 4°C (40°F) in central Florida; a rare occurrence so early in November and likely among the lowest on record for this stage of the season. The weather pattern was driven by a strong high-pressure ridge over the central United States, funneling cold, dry continental air deep into the Florida Peninsula. Clear skies and light overnight winds further enhanced radiative cooling, allowing surface temperatures to drop quickly after sunset. Forecasters expect a gradual warm-up through mid-week as the high moves eastward and winds turn onshore. In Miami and surrounding areas, the cold produced short-lived effects typical of South Florida cold events, including cold-stunned iguanas losing mobility during the pre-dawn hours. No significant impacts or confirmed agricultural losses were reported as of November 12.

Early stratospheric warming in late November could disrupt the polar vortex and shift winter patterns - An early stratospheric warming developing over the Arctic in late November 2025 is raising the likelihood of colder conditions and increased snowfall across parts of the United States, Canada, and possibly Europe in December. Forecast models from ECMWF and GFS indicate a developing stratospheric warming event above the Arctic during the second half of November 2025. Ensemble runs show temperature anomalies forming in the upper stratosphere, suggesting the early stages of a polar vortex weakening phase that could reshape winter circulation patterns heading into December. “The forecasts show a collapse of the polar circulation in the second half of the month, with cold weather and snow to follow across the United States and Canada, but with less clear impacts over Europe for now,” Andrej Flix of Severe Weather Europe (SWE) reported. The latest ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF shows significant warming at around 10 hPa level. As this pattern evolves, the polar vortex is forecast to be either displaced or partially disrupted. Historical data suggests that when such events occur, colder Arctic air masses tend to move southward, reaching mid-latitudes within roughly one to three weeks. Currently, model consensus in ensemble subsets shows a higher probability of downstream cold air development across the northern and central United States, extending into parts of Canada. Some ensemble members also indicate a greater chance of early-season snow systems forming under this evolving configuration. The European outlook remains more uncertain, with model divergence between ECMWF and GFS runs regarding the extent and timing of cold intrusions. NOAA’s stratosphere–troposphere monitoring and the Met Office seasonal guidance both show signals consistent with an increased likelihood of a negative Arctic Oscillation by early December. However, these are probabilistic indicators rather than deterministic forecasts, and confidence at this stage remains moderate. While the main warming pulse remains within the forecast range, persistent high-latitude pressure anomalies and cross-model alignment suggest a significant stratospheric shift is likely before the end of November. If the warming continues to develop as projected, colder patterns and snow events could follow across North America and possibly Europe through December, depending on how the polar vortex responds in the coming weeks.

Philippines evacuates hundreds of thousands as super typhoon nears - Nearly a million people have been evacuated and floodwaters were rising in the Philippines on Sunday before Typhoon Fung-wong's expected late-night landfall on the east coast. The super typhoon, which comes just days after another storm ravaged the country, was working its way west with winds of 185 kilometers (115 miles) per hour near the center and gusts of up to 230 kph as of 11 am (0300 GMT), the state weather service said. With a radius spanning nearly the whole of the Philippines, Fung-wong is expected to bring wind and heavy rain to broad swaths of the archipelago nation, which last week saw more than 220 people killed by Typhoon Kalmaegi. Schools and government offices were ordered closed Monday across the main island of Luzon, including the capital Manila, where nearly 300 flights have so far been canceled. Catanduanes, a small island the state weather service said could take a "direct hit", was being lashed by wind and rain early Sunday, with storm surges sending waves hurtling over streets along the coast and floodwaters rising in some areas. "As we speak, they are feeling the impact of the typhoon, especially in Catanduanes, because the storm's eye is closest there," civil defense deputy administrator Rafaelito Alejandro said at a press briefing, adding that 916,863 people had been evacuated nationwide. "The waves started roaring around 7 am. When the waves hit the seawall, it felt like the ground was shaking," Video verified by AFP showed a church in the town surrounded by floodwaters that reached halfway up its entrance. Flooding was also reported in southern Luzon's Bicol region, Alejandro said, adding officials had anticipated water would "rise in the Bicol River basin." In Guinobatan, a town of about 80,000 in that region's Albay province, verified video showed streets that had become a raging torrent of floodwaters. Typhoon Fung-wong is expected to bring about 200 millimeters (eight inches) or more rain in many places, according to government meteorologists. Scientists warn that storms are becoming more powerful due to human-driven climate change. Warmer oceans allow typhoons to strengthen rapidly, and a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, meaning heavier rainfall.

Super Typhoon Fung-wong makes landfall in Philippines --Super Typhoon Fung-wong slammed into the Philippines' eastern seaboard on Sunday, the national weather service said, after killing at least two people and forcing more than a million to evacuate. The storm, with a radius spanning nearly the whole of the Philippines, made landfall in Aurora province on the main island of Luzon at 9:10 p.m. (1310 GMT), the state forecaster reported. Fung-wong is expected to bring wind and heavy rain to swaths of the archipelago nation, which just last week saw more than 220 people killed by Typhoon Kalmaegi. Earlier Sunday, one of the already storm-stricken provinces in the central Philippines recorded the first known death from the new typhoon. Rescuer Juniel Tagarino in Catbalogan City told AFP the body of a 64-year-old woman attempting to evacuate had been pulled out from under debris and fallen trees. The civil defense office later confirmed a second death, a person who drowned in a flash flood on Catanduanes island. "What really scares us is that the expected landfall is at night," government worker Aries Ora told AFP earlier on Sunday. "Unlike previous typhoons, we won't be able to clearly see the movement of the wind and what's happening around us." Further north, in Cagayan province, people sheltering in an evacuation center told AFP that fear of flooding had convinced them to leave their homes. Schools and government offices have been ordered closed on Monday across the main island of Luzon, including the capital Manila, where nearly 300 flights have been canceled. Catanduanes, a small island that the state weather service said could take a "direct hit," was already being lashed by wind and rain early Sunday, with storm surges sending waves hurtling over streets and floodwaters rising in some areas. "The waves started roaring around 7:00 a.m. When the waves hit the seawall, it felt like the ground was shaking," Video verified by AFP showed a church in the town surrounded by floodwaters that reached halfway up its entrance. Flooding was also reported in southern Luzon's Bicol region, according to civil defense deputy administrator Rafaelito Alejandro, who later confirmed the preemptive evacuation of nearly 1.2 million people nationwide. In Guinobatan, a town of about 80,000 in the region's Albay province, verified video showed streets transformed into a raging torrent of floodwaters. Typhoon Fung-wong is expected to bring at least 200 millimeters (eight inches) of rain to many parts of the country, according to government meteorologists. Scientists warn that storms are becoming more powerful due to human-driven climate change. Warmer oceans allow typhoons to strengthen rapidly, and a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, meaning heavier rainfall.

Rio Bonito do Iguaçu tornado upgraded to EF-4, placing Brazil among sites of 2025’s most violent tornadoes worldwide - YouTube videos - A new assessment by MetSul Meteorologia confirms that the deadly tornado that struck Rio Bonito do Iguaçu, Paraná, Brazil, on November 7, 2025, reached EF-4 intensity on the Enhanced Fujita Scale, with estimated wind speeds between 250 km/h and 300 km/h (155 mph to 186 mph). The event killed six people, injured more than 400, and destroyed much of the city’s urban area, making it one of the most intense tornadoes recorded globally in 2025. MetSul Meteorologia has released an updated post-event analysis of the tornado that devastated the municipality of Rio Bonito do Iguaçu in southern Brazil on November 7. According to the report, damage indicators and the degree of destruction correspond to category EF-4 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale, implying winds of 250 km/h to 300 km/h (155 mph to 186 mph). The tornado caused catastrophic damage across the city, flattening large sections of the urban area. More than half of all buildings were destroyed or severely damaged, and entire neighborhoods were reduced to rubble. YouTube video Local authorities reported six deaths and at least 437 people injured, while other official estimates cite more than 750 people treated for storm-related injuries. The municipality, home to roughly 14 000 residents, remains under emergency conditions. According to MetSul, the Rio Bonito do Iguaçu tornado is the most intense and deadliest to strike Brazil in over two decades. Historical records show that the last comparable event occurred in 1959 in Palmas, Paraná, when an estimated F4 tornado killed 35 people. In terms of casualties, the 2025 event is the worst since the Antônio Prado tornado in Rio Grande do Sul in 2003. MetSul compared the Rio Bonito do Iguaçu tornado with global statistics compiled by the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). By early November 2025, the United States had registered one EF-5 tornado, the first since 2013, and five EF-4 events. No EF-4 or EF-5 tornadoes were recorded this year in Europe or Canada. This places the Paraná event among a small group of the planet’s strongest tornadoes in 2025. YouTube video Initial data released immediately after the disaster by Simepar (Sistema de Tecnologia e Monitoramento Ambiental do Paraná) indicated a maximum wind speed between 180 km/h and 250 km/h (110 mph to 155 mph), consistent with an F2 tornado on the original Fujita scale. The new assessment upgrades that classification substantially, based on extensive structural collapse, displacement of heavy vehicles, and complete leveling of reinforced masonry structures observed in post-storm imagery. The storm developed in a highly unstable atmosphere produced by a strong temperature gradient between hot, humid air over northern Paraná and a cold front advancing from Argentina. This combination generated supercell thunderstorms capable of producing severe downbursts and tornadoes. The temperature at the Entre Rios District station in Guarapuava reached 34.5°C (94.1°F) on November 7 — the highest November temperature on record at that site since observations began in 2001. Emergency response and reconstruction efforts continue, with Civil Defense, firefighters, and local volunteers clearing debris and assisting displaced families. The Paraná state government declared a state of emergency, and the municipality is preparing to release an official donation channel for residents who lost their homes.

Lots of studies show warming affected Hurricane Melissa. Is that confusing? - One study after another has come to the same conclusion over the past two weeks: Hurricane Melissa, the strongest storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, was worsened by climate change. But each paper takes a different approach and presents its results in a unique way — potentially sowing public confusion, according to some researchers, who say that’s a growing risk in the swiftly expanding field of extreme event attribution science. Attribution science, in which the links between global warming and individual weather events are investigated, has advanced in the past two decades, allowing scientists to analyze granular aspects of disasters like tropical cyclones, floods and wildfires. In the case of hurricanes, they can examine the influence of climate change on everything from wind speeds and precipitation to the storm’s odds of occurring in the first place. They can even parse the disaster’s damages that are directly attributable to global warming. In theory, these myriad avenues open up new ways to convey the dangers of rising temperatures to the public. But science communicators should present the findings carefully, researchers warn. When different studies take different angles on the climate change question, their findings can get confusing.

Record-high effusion rate measured during episode 36 of Kīlauea’s Halemaʻumaʻu eruption – (‘vornado’ video) Episode 36 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at Kīlauea volcano, Hawaiʻi, ended at 16:16 LT on November 9 (02:16 UTC, November 10), 2025, after just under 5 hours of continuous fountaining. The event produced record-high lava effusion rates of around 500 m³/s (650 yd³/s) and built fountains up to 330 m (1 100 feet) high, covering 60–80% of the Halemaʻumaʻu crater floor. According to the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO), Episode 36 began at 11:19 LT (21:19 UTC) and involved sustained fountaining from two vents on the floor of Halemaʻumaʻu crater, within the southern part of Kaluapele (Kīlauea caldera). The north vent ceased activity at approximately 15:38 LT, while the south vent continued until 16:16 LT. Lava fountains during this episode reached maximum heights of 300–330 m (1 000–1 100 feet), generating an estimated 8–9 million m³ (10–11 million yd³) of lava over the five-hour period. The combined output rate from both vents averaged over 500 m³/s (650 yd³/s), marking the highest effusion rate measured since the ongoing eruption began in December 2024. Flows from the fountains spread across much of the crater floor, forming new surfaces that now cover between 60% and 80% of Halemaʻumaʻu. Volcanic gas emissions, primarily sulfur dioxide (SO2), decreased significantly following the end of the episode. Between eruptive episodes, SO2 emissions at Kīlauea typically range between 1 200 and 1 500 tonnes per day. The Uēkahuna tiltmeter (UWD) recorded about 23 microradians of deflation during the episode, starting with the onset of fountaining at 11:19 LT. Deflationary tilt and seismic tremor decreased sharply after the eruption ended. HVO scientists expect a return to rapid inflation in the coming days, consistent with the established pattern observed in previous episodes of this eruption sequence. No changes have been detected in Kīlauea’s East Rift Zone or Southwest Rift Zone, and all current activity remains confined to the summit region within Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park. The volcano’s Alert Level and Aviation Color Code remain at WATCH/ORANGE. Around 12:00 LT on November 9, observers recorded a transient tornado-like vortex forming over the lava fountains within Halemaʻumaʻu crater. The feature, informally referred to as a “volnado,” developed as extreme surface heat generated strong updrafts and localized rotation. Although the current eruptive activity is restricted to the closed summit area, several volcanic hazards remain present. Elevated levels of volcanic gases, mainly water vapor (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), and sulfur dioxide (SO2), can form volcanic smog (vog) downwind. High concentrations of vog may cause respiratory irritation and reduced air quality in affected communities. Another hazard associated with Kīlauea’s summit eruptions is the fallout of Pele’s hair — fine strands of volcanic glass produced by lava fountaining. Pele’s hair can be carried more than 15 km (10 miles) from the vent and may cause minor skin or eye irritation upon contact. Occasional deposition of Pele’s hair has been reported as far as Highway 11, west of Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park, depending on wind conditions. Lava flows generated during this episode are expected to continue cooling and may display faint incandescence for several days. The summit area remains hazardous due to unstable crater walls, ground cracking, and potential rockfalls, especially around the closed rim of Halemaʻumaʻu crater, which has remained off-limits to the public since 2007.

Partial collapse at Mount Merapi sends lava down slopes, Indonesia - YouTube video - A partial collapse occurred at Mount Merapi volcano, Central Java Province, Indonesia, on November 10, 2025, producing lava flows on its slopes. The event follows continuous volcanic activity observed in recent days, including a pyroclastic flow that traveled about 1 500 m (4 921 feet) southwest at 15:19 LT (08:19 UTC) on November 9, lasting 188.32 seconds. The volcano remains at Alert Level III (Siaga), and residents are advised to follow official safety recommendations. Mount Merapi, one of Indonesia’s most active volcanoes, experienced a partial collapse on November 10. The collapse generated lava flows down the volcano’s flanks, consistent with its ongoing dome-building activity. On the previous day, a pyroclastic flow occurred at 15:19 LT (08:19 UTC) on November 9, extending approximately 1 500 m (4 921 feet) southwest and lasting 188.32 seconds, according to the Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation (PVMBG). These events are within Merapi’s typical eruptive behavior pattern, which includes frequent dome growth and collapse cycles. PVMBG maintains the volcano’s alert status at Level III (Siaga), indicating high activity. The public has been advised to stay outside the designated hazard zones and comply with official safety guidance. Merapi’s current behavior continues its long-term pattern of near-continuous degassing, lava extrusion, and periodic dome collapse. The volcano’s frequent pyroclastic flows pose significant risks to nearby communities, though no immediate damage reports were received following this event.

Major X1.7 solar flare erupts from Earth-facing Region 4274, CME impact expected on November 11 - (video) A major long-duration solar flare measuring X1.7 erupted from Active Region 4274 at 07:35 UTC on November 9, 2025, producing an assymetric halo CME with impact expected around 12:00 UTC on November 11. The event started at 07:01 and ended at 07:55 UTC. A Type II Radio Emission, with an estimated velocity of 804 km/s, and a Type IV emission were associated with the event, indicating a strong coronal mass ejection (CME) was produced during the event. Additionally, a 10cm Radio Burst lasting 25 minutes and with a peak flux of 25 minutes was detected from 07:10 to 07:35 UTC. A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can indicate significant radio noise associated with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers, including radar, GPS, and satellite communications. X1.7 solar flare on November 9, 2025. (video) The region is directly facing Earth, making an Earth-directed CME from this event very likely. It has a ‘beta-gamma-delta’ magnetic configuration and is capable of producing more major eruptions on the Sun. Earth-directed CMEs from this region are possible in the days ahead.Update: 08:16 UTC, November 10. An asymmetric halo CME, first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 07:48 UTC on November 9 off the NNE, is expected to be Earth-directed with an anticipated arrival around 12:00 UTC on November 11. The solar wind environment is forecast to become enhanced today as the November 7 CME passes in close proximity to Earth. Stronger solar wind disturbances and periods of G1 – Minor to G2 – Moderate are likely on November 11 and 12 due to the anticipated arrival of the November 9 asymmetric halo CME.

Major X1.2 solar flare erupts from Region 4274 producing fast CME - Active Region 4274 produced its second X-class solar flare since it emerged from the far side last week, this time peaking as X1.2 at 09:19 UTC on November 10, 2025. This is now the third X-class flare since the November 4 X1.8 and X1.1. A coronal mass ejection (CME) was associated with the latest event and is expected to have an Earth-directed component. A Type II Radio Emission with an estimated velocity of 1 321 km/s was observed at 09:11 UTC, suggesting a CME was produced during today’s X1.2 solar flare. Additionally, a Type IV Radio Emission was associated with the flare event, suggesting a strong CME was produced. With the source region still in a geoeffective position, an Earth-directed CME seems very likely. Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over Africa, parts of the Middle East, and the Indian Ocean. Region 4274 still has a ‘beta-gamma-delta’ magnetic configuration and is capable of producing more major eruptions on the Sun. Earth-directed CMEs from this region remain likely in the days ahead.Solar activity was at high levels over in 24 hours to 00:30 UTC on November 10. Region 4274 produced an X1.7/2b flare at 07:19 UTC on November 9, associated with Type II (804 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps, as well as an F10.7 cm radio burst measuring 360 solar flux units (sfu). The resulting asymmetric halo CME, first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 07:48 UTC off the north-northeast limb, is Earth-directed with an anticipated arrival around midday UTC on November 11.The SWPC forecasts a 70% probability of M-class and a 25% probability of X-class solar flares through November 12.Periods of G1 – Minor geomagnetic storming are likely on November 10 due to possible CME-related enhancements from the November 7 event. More pronounced activity, ranging from G1 – Minor to G2 – Moderate levels, is expected between November 11–12 as Earth encounters the CME from November 9.

Strong geomagnetic storm forecast for November 12, aurora as low as Pennsylvania, Iowa and Oregon - A strong geomagnetic storm is forecast for November 12, 2025, following the expected arrival of two coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from Active Region 4274. The event is likely to reach G3 – Strong or higher levels, making aurora visible as far south as Pennsylvania, Iowa and Oregon. Solar activity increased significantly over the past 24 hours due to a long-duration X1.2 solar flare at 09:19 UTC on November 10 from active Region 4274 (beta-gamma-delta). The eruption produced a Type II radio sweep with an estimated velocity of 1 321 km/s (821 miles/s), a Type IV emission, and an asymmetric halo coronal mass ejection (CME). The event was also accompanied by an F10.7 cm radio burst of 860 solar flux units and a Castelli-U radio burst, driving S1 – Minor Solar Radiation storming. The CME associated with the X1.2 flare is expected to arrive early on November 12, following an earlier CME from the X1.7 flare on November 9 that is forecast to arrive late on November 11. Together, these events are expected to produce enhanced solar wind conditions with speeds likely to exceed 700 km/s (435 miles/s). SWPC forecasts G2 – Moderate geomagnetic storm levels by late November 11, increasing to G3 – Strong levels on November 12. Conditions are expected to gradually subside to unsettled to G1 levels by November 13 as CME effects wane. Geomagnetic storms of G3 intensity can induce voltage irregularities in power systems, cause intermittent high-frequency radio navigation problems, and produce auroras visible at mid-latitudes. During similar events, aurora has been observed as far south as Oregon, Pennsylvania and Iowa, depending on the orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz component and local viewing conditions. Region 4274 continues to evolve magnetically, showing a ‘beta-gamma-delta’ configuration with evidence of rotation and shearing within its southern sector. The region retains potential for additional X-class flares through November 13. A new region, 4280 (beta), was numbered on November 10 but remains comparatively small and less active.

Major X5.1 solar flare erupts from Region 4274, producing large CME - (video) A major solar flare registered as X5.1 erupted from Active Region 4274 at 10:04 UTC on November 11, 2025. The event started at 09:49 UTC and ended at 10:17 UTC. This is the fifth X-class (the strongest) since November 4 and the fourth — and strongest — from Region 4274 since X1.8 at 17:34 UTC on November 4, X1.7 at 07:35 UTC on November 9, and X1.2 at 09:19 UTC on November 10. The flare was associated with a Type II Radio Emission with an estimated velocity of 1 350 km/s, suggesting a coronal mass ejection (CME) was produced. Due to the source region’s location, an Earth-directed CME is very likely, with impact on November 13. Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over Africa at the time of the flare.Solar activity was already at high levels over the past 24 hours due to a long-duration X1.2 solar flare at 09:19 UTC on November 10 from the same region. The eruption produced a Type II radio sweep with an estimated velocity of 1 321 km/s (821 miles/s), a Type IV emission, and an asymmetric halo coronal mass ejection (CME). The event was also accompanied by an F10.7 cm radio burst of 860 solar flux units and a Castelli-U radio burst, driving S1 – Minor Solar Radiation storming.The CME associated with the X1.2 flare is expected to arrive early on November 12, following an earlier CME from the X1.7 flare on November 9 that is forecast to arrive late on November 11. Together, these events are expected to produce enhanced solar wind conditions with speeds likely to exceed 700 km/s.SWPC forecasts G2 – Moderate geomagnetic storm levels by late November 11, increasing to G3 – Strong levels on November 12. Geomagnetic storms of G3 intensity can induce voltage irregularities in power systems, cause intermittent high-frequency radio navigation problems, and produce auroras visible at mid-latitudes. During similar events, aurora has been observed as far south as Oregon, Pennsylvania and Iowa, depending on the orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz component and local viewing conditions.

Two CMEs impact Earth, sparking G4 - Severe geomagnetic storming and aurora as far south as Mexico - Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) produced by a long-duration X1.7 on November 9 and X1.2 on November 10, 2025, appear to have merged on their way to Earth and impacted our planet around 23:00 UTC on November 11, sparking G4 – Severe geomagnetic storming. Another CME, produced by a major X5.1 flare on November 11, is expected to impact Earth by the end of November 12, causing another round of severe geomagnetic storming. Aurora watchers have already reported impressive sightings as far south as Zacatecas, Mexico. A sudden impulse of 17 nT was observed at the Boulder magnetometer at 23:00 UTC on November 11, indicating the arrival of CME/s at Earth. The ACE spacecraft at L1 position recorded a sharp rise in solar wind speed from 464 km/s to 741 km/s at 22:12 UTC, accompanied by an increase in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength to 60 nT and a southward Bz component near -55 nT. Geomagnetic field responded sharply with K-index of 4 at 00:19 UTC on November 12, increasing to G1 – Minor geomagnetic storm at 00:21 UTC, G2 – Moderate at 00:30 UTC, and G3 – Strong at 00:45 UTC. During G4 – severe geomagnetic storm conditions, impacts are primarily observed at geomagnetic latitudes poleward of 45°. Power transmission systems may experience widespread voltage control problems, and protective devices can mistakenly trip out key components from the grid. Induced currents in long conductive structures, such as pipelines, intensify. Spacecraft are exposed to surface charging, increased aerodynamic drag in low Earth orbit, and potential tracking and orientation difficulties. Satellite-based navigation systems, including GPS, can experience significant degradation or complete loss of service for several hours. High-frequency (HF) radio propagation becomes sporadic or is entirely blacked out while aurora can extend to unusually low latitudes, potentially visible as far south as Alabama and northern California. “Infrastructure operators and authorities have been notified to take action to mitigate any possible impacts and for situational awareness,” SWPC said. Model analyses by SWPC indicated that the CME launched on November 9 would be followed by two additional, faster eruptions associated with major flares on November 10 and 11. The November 9 CME, produced by an X1.7 flare, was modeled to arrive near 23:00 UTC on November 11, with subsequent impacts expected late on November 12 as the November 10 CME, associated with an X1.2 flare, and the November 11 CME, associated with an X5.1 flare, reach Earth. Together, these eruptions are forecast to produce a sequence of elevated solar wind speeds exceeding 700 km/s and sustained geomagnetic storming extending through November 13. By mid to late November 12, activity is expected to intensify again to G4 – Severe or greater levels with the arrival of the November 11 CME. Geomagnetic storming is likely to persist through November 13 at G1 – Minor to G3 – Strong levels as CME activity continues. Conditions are forecast to decline to unsettled to G1 – Minor levels by November 14 as solar wind parameters gradually weaken. Aurora watchers have reported vivid and widespread displays, with sightings confirmed well south of the usual auroral zones. Observers documented visible aurora from Tennessee, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Florida, including along the Mississippi River just north of Natchez. These reports place the southernmost extent of visibility at unusually low latitudes for a G4 – Severe geomagnetic storm. Further south, observers in Mexico reported visible aurora over several states, with particularly bright sightings documented as far south as Zacatecas.

G4 - Severe or greater geomagnetic storm forecast, aurora likely as low as Alabama and California -(video) A major X5.1 solar flare erupted from Active Region 4274 at 10:04 UTC on November 11, 2025, producing a large Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME). NOAA SWPC issued a geomagnetic storm watch predicting G4 – Severe or greater conditions for November 12, G3 – Strong for November 13, and G1 – Minor for November 14. On November 12 and 13, aurora may be visible as far south as Alabama and northern California. A powerful X5.1 solar flare erupted from Active Region 4274 at 10:04 UTC on November 11. This was the fifth X-class solar flare detected since November 4 and the fourth from the same region, following X1.8 on November 4, X1.7 on November 9, and X1.2 on November 10. This event had an associated Type-II (1 350 km/s) radio sweep and an F10.7 cm radio burst (10 000 sfu). There was also a Castelli-U radio burst, as well as an asymmetric halo CME, with an Earth-directed component. The initial impact expected late on November 12 and peak geomagnetic effects on November 13. Two earlier CMEs, produced by the X1.7 flare on November 9 and the X1.2 flare on November 10, are also heading toward Earth, with their arrivals expected to precede and potentially merge with the latest CME, increasing the overall geomagnetic impact. “This is making for a very complicated and difficult forecast, and SWPC forecasters are hard at it this Veteran’s Day, sorting together to create an updated forecast,” SWPC said. The merging of the CMEs would be a perfect setup for significant geomagnetic storming and widespread aurora. SWPC issued a watch for geomagnetic storm category G4 – Severe or greater at 17:05 UTC today. The highest storm levels predicted by day are G4 – Severe on November 12, G3 – Strong on November 13, and G1 – Minor on November 14. The watch supersedes all prior watches in effect. Potential impacts include widespread voltage control issues and protective grid systems tripping key assets. Pipeline currents may intensify, while satellite systems could experience charging and orientation issues. High-frequency radio communication and GPS navigation may be degraded or inoperative for several hours. Aurora visibility could extend to latitudes as low as Alabama and northern California, depending on local conditions and the orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field. Region 4274 continues to exhibit a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration with rotational and shearing features, maintaining the potential for additional X-class flares through at least November 13.

Sun unleashes strongest solar flare of 2025, sparking radio blackouts across Africa and Europe - The sun erupted in spectacular fashion this morning (Nov. 11), unleashing a major X5.1-class solar flare, the strongest of 2025 so far and the most intense since October 2024. The eruption peaked at 5 a.m. EST (1000 GMT) from sunspot AR4274, which has been bursting with activity in recent days. The blast triggered strong (R3-level) radio blackouts across Africa and Europe, disrupting high-frequency radio communications on the sunlit side of Earth.This outburst is the latest in a series of intense flares from AR4274, which also produced an X1.7 flare on Nov. 9 and an X1.2 on Nov. 10. Those flares were accompanied by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that could combine and impact Earth overnight tonight, possibly triggering strong (G3) geomagnetic storm conditions and widespread auroras, according to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center. The CME released today could also join the party as it speeds toward Earth at 4.4 million mph. NOAA predicts the CME could impact Earth around midday on Nov. 12. With this third CME added to the mix, it's possible that we could experience severe (G4) geomagnetic storm conditions.NASA M2M SWO estimate the speed of the CME at 1856 km/s - a very fast CME! The animation of the CME in Cor2 data is absolutely spectacular. Big, fast CME. Bulk headed for us. I think it is safe to say this will be one of the most impressive near side CMEs of the cycle (fingers… https://t.co/nkNhspZo9i pic.twitter.com/9dRXkiSAPSNovember 11, 2025 Solar flares are ranked by strength in five classes, A, B, C, M and X, with each step representing a tenfold increase in energy output. X-class solar flares are the most powerful kind and the number following the X describes the flare's intensity. At X5.1, this latest eruption sits toward the top of the scale.The eruption sent a surge of X-rays and extreme ultraviolet radiation toward Earth, ionizing the upper atmosphere and causing widespread radio signal degradation. Strong (R3) radio blackouts were recorded over Africa and Europe.

Blue Origin Rocket Launch Halted After Earth Slammed By "Cannibal" CME -Three coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that erupted from the sun in recent days are expected to merge into a powerful "cannibal CME" and smash into the Earth's atmosphere on Wednesday, triggering intense geomagnetic activity that could make the northern lights visible across much of the United States. "As many as three CMEs are approaching Earth, including today's fast-moving X5-class CME from sunspot 4274,"SpaceWeatherNews wrote in a report on its website. Here’s a close-up movie of the X5.1 flare from AR 4274, followed by a stunning post-eruption arcade formation. One of the most eruptive events of this solar cycle. pic.twitter.com/VvT6kCeCBZ The website that tracks solar flares continued, "There is a chance that the three CMEs will merge into a single 'Cannibal CME,' a potent type of storm cloud that could cause a severe G4-class geomagnetic storm when it arrives on Nov. 12." Now this is very alarming. The report continued: A 'GROUND LEVEL EVENT' IS UNDERWAY: Today's X5-class solar flare from sunspot 4274 hurled a fuisillade of energetic protons toward Earth. Some of the particles are so powerful, they are penetrating the atmosphere all the way to the ground. "This is a very significant event," says Professor Clive Dyer of the Surrey Space Centre. "Neutron monitors around the world are detecting it."This is called a Ground Level Event (GLE). GLEs of this magnitude are rare; they happen only once or twice every solar cycle. "This one is comparable to the GLE of Dec. 13, 2006," says Dyer. That makes it a ~20-year event.For comparison, during the 2006 GLE, passengers on high-latitude air flights experienced a peak dose rate of 25-30 microSieverts per hour at cruising altitude. This translated to an estimated 20% increase in the total effective radiation dose. Something similar may be happening now."This is a very significant event and analysis will help us prepare for larger events such as a repeat of Feb. 23 1956, which is soon to have its 70th anniversary and gave a thousandfold increase in radiation at 40000 feet," says Dyer.NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center ranks the incoming solar event a 4 out of 5 on NOAA's space weather scale, meaning it's classified as "Severe." A Carrington-class storm would be absolutely catastrophic for power grids and the AI infrastructure being installed at lightning pace. And there are others. Update (1200ET): NASA postponed the launch of the New Glenn heavy-lift orbital rocket, developed by Blue Origin, on Wednesday due to "highly elevated solar activity." "New Glenn is ready to launch. However, due to highly elevated solar activity and its potential effects on the ESCAPADE spacecraft,NASA is postponing launch until space weather conditions improve," Blue Origin wrote on its X account. NG-2 Update: New Glenn is ready to launch. However, due to highly elevated solar activity and its potential effects on the ESCAPADE spacecraft, NASA is postponing launch until space weather conditions improve. We are currently assessing opportunities to establish our next launch…— Blue Origin (@blueorigin) November 12, 2025. Last night, a severe G4 geomagnetic storm hit Earth's atmosphere. A second round is expected today, with a third CME that could be G3/G4 strength. "Arriving earlier than expected, two CMEs struck Earth on Nov. 11th. The closely-spaced sequence of impacts produced a severe (G4) geomagnetic storm. Auroras spread across almost every US state with sightings as far south as Florida, California, Texas, Arizona and Alabama," SpaceWeatherNews wrote in a note earlier. Gemma Richardson, a solar storm expert with the British Geological Survey, told Sky News, "Space weather can have a real impact on the lives of people across the planet." "BGS records real-time data of geomagnetic conditions, underpinning the national forecast service. Our data suggests that this event could be one of the biggest storms we've seen in 20 years," Richardson noted.

Trump administration moves to loosen restrictions it once supported on a harmful pollutant (AP) — Near the end of his first term, President Donald Trump signed into law a bill that aimed to reduce harmful, planet-warming pollutants emitted by refrigerators and air conditioners. The bipartisan measure brought environmentalists and major business groups into rare alignment on the contentious issue of climate change and won praise across the political spectrum. Five years later, the second Trump administration is reversing course, as it moves to loosen a federal rule — based on the 2020 law — that requires grocery stores, air-conditioning companies and others to reduce powerful greenhouse gases used in cooling equipment. The shift in approach has upended a broad bipartisan consensus on the need to quickly phase out domestic use of hydrofluorocarbons, or HFCs, that are thousands of times more potent than carbon dioxide and are considered a major driver of global warming. The proposal by the Environmental Protection Agency highlights the second Trump administration’s drive to roll back regulations perceived as climate-friendly, even at the cost of causing disarray for the very business interests it is claiming to protect. The plan is among a series of sweeping environmental rollbacks that EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin has said will put a “dagger through the heart of climate change religion.” The HFC proposal will help “make American refrigerants affordable, safe and reliable again,” Zeldin said in a statement. But environmentalists say the plan will exacerbate climate pollution while disrupting a years-long industry transition to new coolants as an alternative to HFCs. With HFCs one of the main drivers of extreme heat and pollution, any delay in their phaseout “is going to be have negative outcomes and significant ones,” said Kiff Gallagher, executive director of the Global Heat Reduction Initiative, an international effort to reduce trapped heat that is warming the planet. The 2020 law signed by Trump, known as the American Innovation and Manufacturing Act, phased out HFCs as part of an international agreement on ozone pollution. The law accelerated an industry shift to alternative refrigerants that use less harmful chemicals and are widely available. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the American Chemistry Council, the top lobbying group for the chemical industry, were among numerous business groups that supported the law and an international deal on pollutants, known as the Kigali Amendment, as wins for jobs and the environment. U.S. companies such as Chemours and Honeywell developed and produce the alternative refrigerants sold in the U.S. and around the world. The 2020 law led to a 2023 rule, now being relaxed, which imposed steep restrictions starting next year on HFCs. Zeldin said the Biden-era rule did not give companies enough time to comply and the rapid switch to other refrigerants had caused shortages and price hikes. Some in the industry dispute this. In September, the EPA announced it is relaxing standards for cold storage warehouses and other cooling equipment and delaying other aspects of the HFC rule until 2032. Zeldin said the administration was responding to grocery stores and refrigeration companies that have complained about the federal rule. “We at the Trump administration are heeding the call of Alta Refrigeration,” Zeldin said at an Aug. 21 appearance at the company in Peachtree City, Georgia, outside Atlanta. Zeldin said the so-called Technology Transitions Rule, finalized under former President Joe Biden, has been restricting access to refrigerants Americans need to cool their homes and businesses, while costs are going up and supply is going down. “It was costing more to be able to fix that system,” Zeldin said. Alta Refrigeration, along with grocery stores, the semiconductor industry and residents across America, were dissatisfied with the rule, he said, vowing to “fix this mistake.” The Food Industry Association, which represents grocery stores and suppliers, applauded the EPA plan, saying the current rule “imposed significant and unrealistic compliance timelines.” Zeldin’s proposal “achieves the intended environmental benefits without placing unnecessary and costly burdens on the food industry,” said Leslie Sarasin, the group’s president and CEO.

EPA carves out ‘forever chemicals’ reporting exemptions - EPA will continue a Biden-era initiative to collect data on “forever chemicals” but is eyeing an expanded slate of exemptions to companies looking to avoid the reporting requirements. The agency on Monday released proposed changes to the PFAS data reporting rule, a one-time call for data submissions on the chemical family under the Toxic Substances Control Act. The rule, originally finalized in 2023, marked the first time EPA solicited particular toxicity and use data from manufacturers, a key step to filling knowledge gaps about how per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances impact human and environmental health. Under the Trump administration’s proposed rule, companies can avoid submitting data if the chemicals were manufactured in low quantities or for research and development purposes. The other proposed exemptions apply to imported articles, certain byproducts, impurities and nonisolated intermediates. “This Biden-era rule would have imposed crushing regulatory burdens and nearly $1 billion in implementation costs on American businesses,” EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin said in a news release.

EPA proposes exemptions for ‘forever chemical’ reporting requirements -The Trump administration is proposing to loosen requirements for companies to report on their uses of “forever chemicals.” These chemicals, many of which are toxic, have been used in a wide array of consumer and other applications, including to make items that are nonstick, waterproof and stain resistant. While formally called perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances, or PFAS, they have become known as “forever chemicals” because they can take hundreds or thousands of years to break down in the environment. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced Monday that it is moving to exempt some companiesthat make or import these chemicals from requirements to report them. Specifically, if PFAS make up 0.1 percent or less of an item or mixture, the company that makes it would be exempt from the reporting requirement. EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin argued in a written statement that the change his agency is proposing would reduce costs for industry. “This Biden-era rule would have imposed crushing regulatory burdens and nearly $1 billion in implementation costs on American businesses,” Zeldin said. “Today’s proposal is grounded in commonsense and the law, allowing us to collect the information we need to help combat PFAS contamination without placing ridiculous requirements on manufacturers, especially the small businesses that drive our country’s economy,” he added. The Biden administration imposed strictforever chemical reporting rules in 2023, arguing that the public deserves to know if they might be exposed to these toxic substances. PFAS can be harmful even in tiny quantities. For example, the nation’s drinking water standards are set to outlaw PFAS at levels as low as four parts per trillion, the equivalent of a few drops in 20 Olympic-sized swimming pools. Exposure to these substances has been linked to kidney, prostate and testicular cancer, as well as fertility and immune system issues.

Ammonia gas leak from a tanker truck in Oklahoma sickens dozens and forces evacuations | The Hill (AP) — A leaking tanker truck spewed dangerous ammonia gas outside a hotel overnight, filling its hallways with fumes and forcing hundreds of nearby residents of a small Oklahoma city to evacuate, authorities said Thursday. Several dozen people were treated at hospitals. Officials lifted a shelter-in-place order Thursday morning, hours after firefighters wearing gas masks went door to door in Weatherford, waking people up and telling them to leave because of the anhydrous ammonia leak. An oil field worker staying at the hotel where the truck had been parked said he heard a “faint pop” Wednesday night and noticed a smell minutes later. He and a coworker left their room and hustled into a hallway and then an elevator filling up with a pungent odor. Once outside, they saw their vehicles underneath a cloud of ammonia, said Michael Johnson, of Nacogdoches, Texas. “The smell itself punched me,” he said. He took off running, but noticed his roommate wasn’t with him and saw that he had run for their trucks. He said a police officer managed to save his coworker. “His lips were purple and frozen shut,” Johnson said. “His eyes were bloodshot red. His skin was all red.” Johnson found one person stumbling and gave him a shirt to put over his mouth. At one point, he looked at the smoke and saw they were surrounded, thinking “We’re going to die.” In all, 36 people were treated at the local hospital’s emergency room, said Darin Farrell, president of Weatherford Regional Hospital. One person was admitted in good condition and 10 were taken to hospitals in Oklahoma City, he said. Police Chief Angelo Orefice said early Thursday that four patients were in critical condition. SSM Health’s St. Anthony Hospital in Oklahoma City was treating seven patients, a hospital spokesperson said. At least 500 to 600 people went to a shelter early Thursday while others were ordered to remain inside their homes for several hours. Some nursing homes were evacuated, and schools were closed for the day. Anhydrous ammonia is used as a farm fertilizer to help corn and wheat grow. The colorless gas has a suffocating odor and can be deadly, especially at high concentrations, or cause breathing problems and burns to the skin and eyes. Just last week, an anhydrous ammonia leak forced evacuations near Yazoo City, Mississippi, and two years ago, five people died in Illinois when a tanker truck spilled anhydrous ammonia after it was forced off a road by a passing minivan. The cleanup in Weatherford — a city of 12,000 people about 70 miles (115 kilometers) west of Oklahoma City — could take several days, the police chief said.

Radioactive pollution still haunts Hunters Point in San Francisco - More than a half century after the U.S. ignited 67 atomic weapons in the central Pacific Ocean, a former Navy base in the Bay Area continues to carry that nuclear legacy. Recently, residents were informed by the San Francisco Department of Health that a test taken in November 2024 at the former site of Hunters Point Naval Shipyard showed radiation levels of airborne Plutonium-239 had exceeded the Navy's "action level," requiring the military to further investigate. The city and the residents were not informed until 11 months after that initial reading. Hunters Point, a 500-acre peninsula jutting out into San Francisco Bay, served as a military laboratory to study the effects of nuclear weapons from 1946–69 following World War II. Although the research largely focused on how to decontaminate U.S. warships and equipment targeted with atomic bombs, the experimentation left much of the shipyard laced with radioactive contaminants and toxic chemicals. For the last 30 years, the Navy has sought to clean up the area—now a U.S. Superfund site—with the long-term goal of redeveloping it into new housing and parkland. But some Bay Area community leaders say haphazard remediation work and lackluster public outreach have endangered the health and safety of residents of the Bayview-Hunters Point neighborhood that sits beside the former shipyard. And they point to the Navy's nearly year-long delay in informing them of the elevated Plutonium-239 reading, taken in November 2024, as just the latest example. Plutonium-239 is a radioactive isotope and byproduct of nuclear bomb explosions. The elevated readings from November 2024 came from a 78-acre tract of land on the northeast portion of the shipyard, known as Parcel C. "The City and County of San Francisco is deeply concerned by both the magnitude of this exceedance and the failure to provide timely notification," wrote San Francisco Health Officer Susan Philip in an Oct. 30 letter to Navy officials. "Such a delay undermines our ability to safeguard public health and maintain transparency. Immediate notification is a regulatory requirement and is critical for ensuring community trust and safety." Navy officials and some health experts insist the radiation levels detected at the site, while above the Navy's action level, did not pose an imminent or substantial threat to public health. Exposure to this level of Plutonium-239 every day for one year would be less than one-tenth the dose of radiation from a chest X-ray, according to a Navy spokesperson.

Warming US climate linked to rising deaths from heat - Record-breaking heat and severe cold spells are having a significant impact on health and mortality in the United States, say researchers at the Yale School of Public Health (YSPH). In a new study, YSPH researchers found that while cold weather continues to be a leading contributor to U.S. deaths annually, deaths linked to heat exposure surged more than 50% over the past two decades. Cold-related deaths rose from about 44,000 between 2000 and 2009 to more than 47,500 between 2010 and 2020, a 7% increase. Meanwhile, deaths associated with high temperatures climbed by 53%, from an annual average of 2,670 between 2000 and 2009 to more than 4,000 between 2010 and 2020. "These findings underscore that extreme temperatures are significant threats to human health," said Dr. Kai Chen, Ph.D., senior author of the study and associate professor of epidemiology (environmental health sciences) at YSPH. "Cold remains a dominant risk, yet heat is becoming increasingly dangerous as extreme heat events grow more frequent and intense." The study was published Nov. 7 in the journal JAMA Network Open. For the study, researchers analyzed more than 54 million death records from every county in the 48 contiguous U.S. states between 2000 and 2020. It is believed to be one of the most comprehensive examinations to date of how heat and cold temperatures affect public health in the U.S. The Yale team employed advanced statistical models to measure how temperature influenced mortality risk after accounting for local conditions, such as humidity, and demographic factors. They found that both hot and cold days increased the likelihood of death within a week of exposure and cold temperatures were responsible for a larger share of excess deaths. Mortality risks rose by 5.7% on cold days (defined as low temperatures in the 5th percentile) and 1.1% on hot days (defined as high temperatures in the 95th percentile). Specific impacts of heat and cold temperatures varied in different parts of the country. The western U.S. had higher proportions of heat-related deaths, while the southwestern U.S. recorded higher proportions of deaths linked to cold. Temperature vulnerability also differed by age, sex, and marital status. Older adults, women, and widowed or divorced individuals were found to be particularly susceptible to cold exposure, while younger, single adults were more vulnerable to heat.

Interactive map shows deforestation drives up tropical temperatures by up to 5°C - Deforestation is leading to temperature increases of up to 5°C in some tropical regions, according to data revealed in a new interactive map created by researchers at the University of Leeds.The online tool has been designed to highlight the important role forests play in moderating local climates and will allow governments, conservation charities and those working in agriculture to investigate what impact different levels of deforestation could have on health, food production and productivity.It follows recent research by Dr. Carly Reddington and Professor Dominick Spracklen from Leeds' School of Earth and Environment which showed that deforestation in tropical countries could contribute to increased deaths from heat exposure in nearby populations. The study, which analyzed areas across Central and South America, Africa and South-East Asia, found that local climate heating caused by tropical deforestation has exposed over 300 million people to increased temperatures and is associated with 28,000 heat-related deaths each year."This local heating not only has important implications for human health, but also for water security, agriculture, and climate resilience—especially for vulnerable communities across the tropics," said Dr. ReddingtonTropical deforestation contributes to rising temperatures through the loss of trees that would naturally regulate the climate through shade, moisture release via evapotranspiration, and carbon dioxide absorption. Without these cooling mechanisms, heat accumulates more rapidly at the surface, atmospheric moisture declines, and greenhouse gas concentrations increase.The interactive map shows the temperature increase due to deforestation per region, district, or province. For example, deforestation in the state of Rondônia in the southern Amazon in Brazil would cause a local warming of 2.1°C. It would cause even stronger warming of more than 3°C in parts of Southeast Asia and Africa, and in the Katavi Region in Tanzania, deforestation could cause warming of more than 5°C.

How climate change increased the risk of earthquakes in East Africa -- Climate change is accelerating continental rifting, the geological process where landmasses slowly pull apart. According to a new study published in the journal Scientific Reports, the East African Rift System (EARS) became more tectonically active after its major lakes shrank due to a drier climate 4,000 to 6,000 years ago. This could have caused more frequent earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. The research team studied the Lake Turkana Basin in northern Kenya. This region is ideal for analyzing how climate and tectonics interact because it lies within the magmatically active eastern part of EARS and has witnessed dramatic lake-level shifts. Scientists examined 27 underwater faults by comparing two time periods in the South Turkana Basin. The first was the wetter Late African Humid Period (9,631–5,333 years ago) and the second was the Post-African Humid Period (5,333 years ago to present), when the climate was much drier. Using geological data and computer models, they calculated how the reduced weight of the lake water affected fault activity. The researchers discovered that the speed of faulting in the EARS accelerated significantly after the region's major lakes shrank, showing a mean increase of 0.17 mm/year in their slipping rate. "We provide the first empirical evidence of increased fault activity in response to climate-induced lake level changes in the East African Rift System over time scales of 10³–10⁴ years and reveal that climate-tectonic interactions are enhanced in magmatically active rift systems." The study authors suggest a two-part mechanism for how the drop in lake water affected the forces accelerating drifting. The immediate effect was the removal of weight from Earth's crust. For example, when Lake Turkana's level dropped by 100 to 150 meters, it reduced pressure on the faults, making them more likely to slip. It is similar to a heavy bowling ball being taken off a mattress, with the surface springing back up. The most significant effect was that the reduction in the weight of the lake decreased pressure on the mantle (the layer below the crust). This caused more rock to melt, sending magma into a chamber beneath the South Island volcano. The chamber grew like a powerful underground balloon, further accelerating fault movement. When the scientists ran computer models, they found that this magma pressure was the dominant force accelerating the faults.

Key 'fingerprint' reveals slowdown of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation - The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), an ocean current system that transports heat from the tropics to the North Atlantic, plays a vital role in regulating the global climate. Most climate models project a decline in AMOC strength under anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming. However, it remains unclear whether the AMOC has slowed over the past century, and if so, when this slowdown began. To address this issue, a research team from the Institute of Oceanology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (IOCAS), in collaboration with scientists from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and the University of California, San Diego, analyzed observational data, climate models, and ocean simulations. They uncovered a key "fingerprint" of AMOC slowdown: mid-depth (1,000–2,000 meters) warming in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean. Their study was recently published in Communications Earth & Environment. Using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology General Circulation Model (MITgcm), the researchers traced how AMOC-related signals propagate rapidly toward the equator. Their results showed that an AMOC slowdown triggers subsurface warming in the subpolar North Atlantic. This warming then generates baroclinic Kelvin waves, which travel equatorward along the western boundary of the North Atlantic. Upon reaching the equator, these waves propagate along the equatorial region, ultimately causing the distinct mid-depth warming. "Our findings reveal that the equatorial Atlantic serves as a critical crossroads for AMOC-related dynamical signals to spread across the global ocean," said Prof. Li Yuanlong, co-corresponding author of the study. Further analysis using climate models confirmed that this mid-depth warming is highly correlated with AMOC changes over decadal to longer timescales, and the warming consistently accompanies AMOC weakening across a decade period. Importantly, mid-depth temperature changes provide a more stable and reliable indicator of AMOC strength than surface-based proxies, which are easily affected by atmospheric variability. By examining observational data dating back to 1960, the researchers identified a clear mid-depth warming trend in the equatorial Atlantic. This trend has stood out from natural ocean variability since the early 2000s, suggesting that the AMOC likely began to weaken in the late 20th century.

Brazil's COP30 climate summit opens with a plea for countries to get along (Reuters) - The COP30 climate summit opened on Monday with the U.N. climate chief urging countries to cooperate rather than battle over priorities, as efforts to limit global warming are threatened by a fracturing international consensus.Host country Brazil brokered a deal on the agenda for the two-week summit in the Amazon city of Belem, deflecting attempts by developing-country negotiating blocs to shoehorn contentious issues like climate finance and carbon taxes into the talks.It was unclear whether countries would aim to negotiate a final agreement for the end of the event – a hard sell in a year of fractious global politics and U.S. efforts to obstruct a transition away from fossil fuels.Some including Brazil have suggested that countries focus on smaller efforts that do not need consensus, such as deforestation, after years of COP summits making lofty promises only to leave many unfulfilled."In this arena of COP30, your job here is not to fight one another – your job here is to fight this climate crisis, together,” U.N. Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell told delegates from more than 190 countries attending.He said three decades of U.N. climate talks had helped to bend the curve in projected warming downward, “because of what was agreed in halls like this, with governments legislating, and markets responding. But I am not sugar-coating it. We have so much more work to do."A new U.N. analysis of countries' emissions-cutting plans estimated that global greenhouse gases would decrease 12% by 2035 from 2019 levels, improving on an earlier estimate of 10% published last month.The new figure takes into account the most recent pledges, including from China and the EU, but was still short of the 60% emissions drop needed by 2035 to limit global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial temperatures - the threshold beyond which scientists say climate change would unleash far more severe impacts.Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva warned against interests trying to obscure the dangers of climate change."They attack the institutions, the science, the universities," he said. "It’s time to impose another defeat to denialists.”The world’s biggest historical emitter of greenhouse gases – the United States – opted to skip the summit; U.S. President Donald Trump falsely asserts that climate change is a hoax.California Governor Gavin Newsom and New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham were expected in Belem on Tuesday. "What the hell is going on here?” Newsom said of the U.S. government’s absence from the talks, addressing a global investors summit held on Monday in Sao Paulo. COP30 President Andre Correa do Lago told a news conference: "I think that the absence of the U.S. ... has opened some space for the world to see what developing countries are doing." Germany said European countries would push for commitments to rein in fossil fuel use – a goal promoted by Lula. "We will advocate for something strong," German Vice Minister Jochen Flasbarth told Reuters. "We don’t want to go the same way of President Trump and accuse others of being wrong. We want to listen." Countries were joined by Indigenous leaders, who arrived on Sunday by boat after traveling some 3,000 km (1,864 miles) from the Andes. They are demanding more say in how their territories are managed as climate change escalates and industries such as mining, logging and oil drilling push deeper into forests."We want to make sure that they don’t keep promising, that they will start protecting, because we as Indigenous people are the ones who suffer from these impacts of climate change," said Pablo Inuma Flores, an Indigenous leader from Peru.Scientists at dozens of universities and international science institutions sounded an alarm over the world’s thawing glaciers, ice sheets, and other frozen spaces.“The cryosphere is destabilizing at an alarming pace,” the groups said in a letter to COP30 published on Monday. “Geopolitical tensions or short-term national interests must not overshadow COP30. Climate change is the defining security and stability challenge of our time."

Climate conference's webpages emit 10 times more carbon than average sites, study says -- Websites produced for COP conferences emit up to 10 times more carbon than average internet pages, new research published in the journal PLOS Climate suggests.Ahead of this year's United Nations climate summit, COP30, researchers have revealed a sharp increase in the carbon emissions generated by the conference's websites over time.Analysis indicates that between 1995—when the first Conference of the Parties (COP) was held—and 2024, average emissions from COP conference websites have risen by more than 13,000%.While the increase is partly a consequence of huge growth in computing power and internet use—the internet now accounts for up to 3% of all emissions—the carbon footprint of COP sites is still significantly higher than the average webpage, the team says.Researchers from the University of Edinburgh analyzed web archive data to assess changes in the carbon footprint of COP websites over a 30-year period.Their findings indicate that emissions remained relatively low until COP14 in 2008, with sites emitting the equivalent of 0.02g carbon per page view.However, from COP15 onward, emissions have risen sharply, with pages on average emitting the equivalent of more than 2.4g of carbon per visit, with some emitting substantially more. The average website emits the equivalent of 0.36g of carbon per page view, the team says.The rise corresponded with COP pages increasingly using content that requires greater computing power, such as multimedia files, experts say. As well as revealing an increase in the environmental impact of COP websites themselves, the team's findings also indicate that emissions caused by internet traffic to the pages have risen exponentially.Website views during COP3 in 1997—the first year with available data—emitted the equivalent of 0.14kg, roughly the amount of carbon that a mature tree can absorb in two days.In contrast, it would take up to 10 mature trees a full year to absorb the levels of carbon emitted as a result of COP29 homepage visits alone—116.85kg—an increase of more than 83,000%.Researchers say it is too early to calculate carbon emissions from the COP30 website, but highlight that it is not hosted on verified renewable energy infrastructure. Based on their analysis, the researchers make a number of practical recommendations for reducing the digital footprint of websites. These include placing strict limits on page sizes, optimizing site layouts and hosting websites on servers powered by renewable energy.

COP30: Global nature goals at risk as conservation projects quietly fail As world leaders begin COP30 climate negotiations in Brazil, an international team co-led by a University of Sydney researcher has warned of a hidden crisis undermining global biodiversity and carbon targets: the quiet abandonment of conservation projects. The comment paper, "Conservation abandonment is a policy blind spot," published in Nature Ecology & Evolution, was co-led by Dr. Matthew Clark, a postdoctoral researcher in the Thriving Oceans Research Hub at the University of Sydney. Dr. Clark said that conservatively, US$87 billion is spent annually worldwide on conservation programs and that figure can climb to US$200 billion depending on what exactly is counted. "As we grapple with the biodiversity and climate crises, these required investments are expected to be US$540 billion by 2030 and US$740 billion by 2050," Dr. Clark said. "While these investments are essential for meeting both carbon and biodiversity goals, we have virtually no line of sight on how long these programs endure. "Evidence suggests at least one third are abandoned just a few years after implementation. This blind spot potentially compromises progress announced at events like COP, as meaningful ecological recovery can take decades. If we only count the implementation of programs, this will inflate estimates of progress." The paper introduces the concept of 'conservation abandonment'—where responsible parties simply informally fail to fulfill their duties or where laws or other agreements are formally changed to reverse formal protections. These abandoned projects, though inactive, are frequently still included in official reporting, masking the true state of environmental protection. "We're racing to meet global targets like protecting 30% of land and sea by 2030," . "But no one's asking if the parks we've established are still being managed, or if the projects that we've started even still exist in any meaningful way." The team found that the legal protection for conservation areas has been undermined more than 3700 times globally in what are called PADDD events (Protected Area Downgrading, Downsizing and Degazettement). Alongside formal rollbacks, they also reveal widespread abandonment of community-led conservation programs in Africa and South America. In Chile, 22% of Territorial Use Rights in fisheries assigned to local communities were later discontinued. In Canada, the formal downgrading of a marine conservation area opened up oil exploratory drilling in 26,450 square kilometers. Morocco and Canada collectively disestablished seven conservation areas totaling 2,412 square kilometers. "The Trump administration has cut more than US$365 million in funding for international conservation initiatives. Such policy changes risk legitimizing and foreshadowing an acceleration in conservation abandonment on a global scale." The authors warn that Australia is not immune, with many programs underfunded or quietly dropped after initial fanfare. "Australia has a disappointing record of reducing protections for national parks and protected areas, including for the Great Barrier Reef. "We also have a huge network of marine protected areas but there is very little active management or enforcement." Research from 2021 shows marine protected areas have had protection downgraded 38 times, affecting more than 1 million square kilometers. Australian research also points to ongoing concerns about the use of biodiversity offsets and carbon credits as compensation for land clearing and carbon emissions. The authors call for a global monitoring system to track conservation abandonment, more robust long-term funding and greater transparency in environmental accounting. "The reality is that the launch of a new conservation project is just the beginning," Dr. Clark said. "These initiatives will need to continue for decades, or sometimes in perpetuity, to yield real change. In many cases, when funding ends or when responsibilities are dropped, we go right back to where we started."

Climate tipping points are close: Scientists urge radical action before it's too late – New research has found that the world has reached the first of many Earth system tipping points. These will cause catastrophic harm unless humanity takes urgent action. A tipping point is a moment in Earth's climate system where even small changes can lead to significant, often irreversible consequences. Some of the most well known global tipping points are melting ice sheets at the north and south poles, the dieback of the Amazon rainforest and the collapse of vital ocean currents. If these happen, food systems could break down and sea levels would rise rapidly. Tipping points also speed up global warming, making more climate disasters likely. I'm a sustainability scientist, and I was part of a large, global team who recently updated the 2023 Global Tipping Points report. This report identifies "negative" tipping points that will likely trigger devastation in the world, and the potential for "positive" tipping points – where a desirable change becomes widespread (such as finance flowing toward nature-supporting activities). In our second Global Tipping Points Report, we explain that some damaging Earth system tipping points are already being crossed. Others could soon follow, with potentially catastrophic impacts on societies and nature globally. It's important to note that negative climate tipping points cannot be reversed. This means that if the world underestimates how certain events could trigger a climate tipping point, we might run out of time to act before the damage becomes irreversible or too severe to adapt to. Governance has to change to address this new reality. Small, step-by-step changes are not going to be enough for the world to avoid the worst impacts of global warming. Climate action must accelerate radically to eliminate greenhouse gas emissions that stress ecosystems, and to regenerate nature before it is too late. Climate tipping point risks are interconnected. Most of the interactions between them are destabilizing. This means that tipping one system over into disaster makes tipping another more likely. The negative impacts would cascade through the ecological and social systems we depend upon, creating damage that keeps mounting up.Global temperatures in both the atmosphere and oceans have recently spiked. Oceans are absorbing 90% of extra heat from Earth that isn't absorbed by plants. This is a sign that Earth's climate is becoming increasingly unstable. While these spikes are not tipping points themselves, they can trigger them.For example, if the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) (system of ocean currents) collapses, then west Africa will likely experience more frequent and severe droughts. This is because these currents move warm surface water to the north and cold deep water to the south in the Atlantic, moving heat around and regulating global climate. Without it, the west African monsoon will be disrupted and this will reduce rainfall and cause hotter, drier conditions. There is growing evidence from observations and modeling that the AMOC could be at risk of either entering a tipping point or collapsing.All major Earth systems are becoming more likely to reach dangerous tipping points because of global warming. However, some are also being pushed closer to collapse by local human activities, such as deforestation or overfishing.This means that there is a chance to act to stop the damage – for example, by reducing deforestation of the Amazon, or reducing overfishing of coral reefs.The world must act right now. The window to prevent serious damage is closing fast. Countries have committed to reducing greenhouse gases but not enough to stop global warming from shooting more than 2°C above pre-industrial times by 2100.Political instability, conflicts and attacks on climate science are making coordinated action harder.

1.5 degrees ‘no longer plausible’ as global emissions hit record - The world is on track to set a new record for greenhouse gas emissions just in time for the 10th anniversary of the Paris climate accord. Climate pollution from fossil fuels are on pace to exceed 38 billion metric tons this year, the Global Carbon Project said Thursday. The report, which comes as nations gather in Brazil for the COP30 climate summit, underscores just how difficult it will be for countries to cut emissions to the levels agreed to in 2015. The Paris Agreement’s most ambitious climate target envisioned limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius. But the world has virtually extinguished the carbon budget needed to meet that target, the Global Carbon Project found. “Keeping global warming below 1.5°C is no longer plausible” said Pierre Friedlingstein, a climate researcher at the University of Exeter who led the study. The Global Carbon Project’s annual study is produced by a team of 130 scientists from across the world. This year’s report landed on the heels of the International Energy Agency’s annual outlook, which came to a similar conclusion about the world’s climate trajectory. It concluded that exceeding 1.5 C is “inevitable” and revived a previously discontinued scenario in which fossil fuel consumption would increase through 2050, rather than peak in 2030. The trends that defined much of the last decade were reversed this year, with U.S. emissions on track to rise 1.9 percent in 2025 as higher gas prices have led to additional coal use, the Global Carbon Project said. In past years, U.S. and Europe had seen their carbon emissions decline, while China and India’s increased. The outlook for future U.S. emission reductions has been further dimmed by rising electricity demand related to artificial intelligence and President Donald Trump’s moves to slash spending on clean energy. In Europe, low hydropower and wind output resulted in more gas generation. And an early monsoon season in India resulted in lower electricity demand for cooling, meaning emissions there are in line to rise a relatively modest 1.4 percent. The biggest questions going forward are in China, which accounts for 32 percent of global emissions, by far the most of any nation. Climate pollution in China is on track to grow 0.4 percent this year. But whether that is a result of lower economic growth or structural trends, like the massive adoption of electric vehicles and renewable energy, remains to be seen. Some analysts have predicted that emissions in China could peak this year, as a result of high EV sales and massive renewable installations. But others urged caution. Some observers had predicted a decade ago that China’s emissions were on the verge of peaking, when the growth of renewable energy was almost enough to account for increases in Chinese energy demand, said Glen Peters, a senior researcher at the Center for International Climate Research in Oslo, Norway. “We’re still saying the same thing today,” he said.

Global Carbon Emissions To Stay High Through 2050, IEA Warns - Global oil and gas demand is projected to continue growing through 2050 under current national policies, even as renewable energy sources and electric vehicles expand, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported in its latest World Energy Outlook released Wednesday. The report signals potential challenges for policymakers, investors, and energy sector stakeholders seeking to anticipate the trajectory of the global energy mix. According to the IEA, momentum behind international and domestic emissions reduction efforts is weakening, even as climate risks intensify. Heightened concerns over energy security and affordability are reshaping national priorities in a volatile global environment. The IEA notes that while some countries—particularly fuel importers—are leaning toward renewables and energy efficiency, others continue to prioritize ensuring stable supplies of traditional fossil fuels. In the United States, major policy changes under the current GOP administration are driving significant shifts. Under existing policies, U.S. oil production is expected to rise slowly until 2035, while natural gas output continues to grow. Coal production, however, is projected to decline steadily. For the first time since 2019, the IEA modeled a “current policies scenario” (CPS), reflecting a more cautious view of the energy transition. The CPS anticipates long-term growth in global oil and gas demand, though coal consumption is expected to decrease this decade. This approach contrasts with previous projections, including the “stated policies scenario” (STEPS), which examines existing and planned policies. In this year’s STEPS model, natural gas demand is projected to plateau in the mid- to late-2030s before gradually declining toward 2050, while oil demand growth is expected to end this decade at slightly higher levels than last year’s forecast. Electricity demand is rising faster than overall energy use in all scenarios, with global power consumption projected to increase by approximately 40% by 2035 under both CPS and STEPS assumptions. A hypothetical net-zero emissions pathway could drive demand growth beyond 50% by the same year. Renewables continue to expand more rapidly than any other energy source, with solar photovoltaics leading the growth. However, the IEA slightly reduced its outlook for renewable expansion, citing U.S. policy changes. The report underscores the challenge of cutting emissions. Under current policies, global CO2 emissions in 2050 are projected to remain roughly at today’s levels. In the STEPS scenario, emissions fall by just 22% by 2050, far short of targets set under the Paris Agreement. Highlighting the evolving energy landscape, the IEA noted that global investment in data centers will reach $580 billion this year, surpassing the roughly $540 billion projected for new oil supply. While significant, data centers account for less than 10% of global electricity demand growth from 2024 to 2030, behind industry, appliances, and other sectors. The report may influence ongoing U.S. criticism of the IEA, including threats of withdrawal from the organization. Meanwhile, climate analysts such as the Ember think tank caution that the IEA may underestimate the pace of clean technology adoption. Ember argued that even the STEPS scenario should be treated as a floor rather than a ceiling, given its limited accounting of exponential technological advances and announced policy commitments.

ADM ethanol carbon capture facility in Columbus is world's largest - Nebraska is now home to the largest bioethanol carbon capture facility in the world. ADM on Monday announced the start of operations for a new carbon capture and storage project at its Columbus corn processing complex, which the company says is the world's largest such facility. The facility is capturing carbon dioxide released during the ethanol fermentation process and feeding it into the Tallgrass Trailblazer pipeline for sequestration underground in eastern Wyoming. “ADM has been a pioneer in the CCS (carbon capture storage) industry for more than a decade, and this is an expansion of that expertise,” Chris Cuddy, president of North America at ADM, said in a statement. “CCS is an important part of our strategy to decarbonize our operations and help meet global demand for low-carbon ingredients, and we are proud to work with Tallgrass to find innovative solutions at facilities like Columbus. This is an exciting project for the industry and for the future of CCS technology.” The Tallgrass Trailblazer pipeline, which was formerly a natural gas pipeline, started up operations last month. It runs nearly 400 miles from Beatrice to eastern Wyoming and will carry around 10 million tons of carbon dioxide annually from nearly a dozen ethanol plants.

In Spite of Ourselves – Backlog for Carbon-Capture Projects Grows Despite Efforts to Speed Permitting -The permitting process for carbon-capture projects is, in some ways, very much like navigating Houston’s notorious rush-hour traffic — if everyone tries to move at once, gridlock can quickly ensue. That’s true at both the federal level, where the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has more sequestration wells under review than ever before, and at the state level, where Louisiana just hit the pause button on its reviews, hoping for time to clear its backlog. In today’s RBN blog, we look at how increased interest in carbon capture has exacerbated the permitting backlog. Let’s start with a quick refresher on carbon capture. When carbon dioxide (CO2) is captured and stored, and that’s all, the process is called carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) and requires a Class VI injection well for long-term storage in deep geologic formations. If the CO2 is used for some other process before it’s stored, it is called carbon capture, use and sequestration (CCUS) and for certain applications requires a much-easier-to-permit Class II injection well — the most common example being the type used in enhanced oil recovery (EOR). Permitting for Class VI wells is typically handled by the EPA, although a few states have gained control over that process, something referred to as primacy, and several others, including Texas, are attempting to do the same (more on those states later).There are plenty of CCS projects in the works nationwide, driven at least in part by improvements made to the 45Q tax credit for permanent CO2 sequestration as part of 2022’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and this year’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). Under the budget law passed in July, the tax credits for CCS and CCUS/EOR are now equal at $85/MT for most carbon-capture facilities and $180/MT for direct air capture (DAC). Before the changes this year, the tax credits for CCUS/EOR were lower than for CCS. The blue bar sections in Figure 1 below indicate the credit rates under the IRA; the orange bar sections show the increases under the OBBBA.

Why America Is Winning the Carbon Capture Race | OilPrice.com -- Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is no longer a futuristic idea or a climate scientist’s dream, it has become an unavoidable necessity for the sectors that cannot decarbonize through renewables or electrification alone. Cement, steel, refining, chemicals, these industries have one practical path to cutting emissions in the short term: capturing and storing their CO2. Yet while the United States is rapidly turning that vision into reality, Europe continues to wrestle with frameworks, regulations, and price signals that fail to deliver. The difference is not technical. It is financial. And at its core, it is political. Last week, during the Global Energy Transition (GET) conference in Rotterdam, the momentum for CCS was evident. Operators, regulators, and service providers presented an array of projects across Europe, from storage pilots in the North Sea to capture installations at refineries and cement plants. The technology is there, the know-how is there, and the need is unquestionable. Yet a look beneath the enthusiasm reveals a problem that remains stubbornly unresolved: costs. A recent study by André Nogueira da Silveira at Brazil’s FGV EPGE offers one of the clearest analyses of this issue to date. His comparative assessment of CCS economics in the United States and Europe shows in stark terms how policy design, not technology, is driving deployment on one side of the Atlantic and paralysis on the other. In the United States, the 45Q tax credit provides a simple, bankable incentive: $85 for every ton of CO2 captured and permanently stored. The mechanism is clear and predictable. If a project can capture and store CO2, it earns the credit. That level of certainty has unlocked investment at scale. Capture costs for ethanol plants, for instance, range from $22 to $63 per ton—well below the value of the credit. Projects can therefore reach financial viability from day one, with private capital eager to participate. Europe tells a different story. Capture costs in key industries, cement, refining, steel, are generally higher, often between $80 and $150 per ton. Even the lowest-cost examples, such as cement at around $87 per ton, are already on the edge of the European carbon price, which recently fluctuated between $60 and $110 per ton. That margin leaves little room for uncertainty. And uncertainty, unfortunately, is what Europe excels at.The European Union’s approach to CCS has relied primarily on the Emissions Trading System, which in theory should create a market signal strong enough to make carbon capture worthwhile. But in practice, it hasn’t. The ETS price is volatile, long-term contracts for difference are still emerging, and funding calls remain bureaucratic and slow. There is no consistent, scalable mechanism that rewards the permanent removal of CO2 from the atmosphere or from industrial processes. The result is that even well-designed projects struggle to make their numbers work. And that’s before adding the significant costs of transport and storage. Once the CO2 leaves the capture site, it must travel, often across borders, through pipelines or shipping to storage locations, each requiring permits, liability frameworks, and commercial agreements. These logistics can add tens of euros per ton to the total cost. When projects already start underwater, transport and storage become the final blow.The American system builds momentum through clarity. The 45Q credit can be monetized, traded, and financed. Developers can take a future revenue stream directly to lenders. Investors understand the risk profile. The result is a wave of project development across the U.S. Gulf Coast and Midwest, with industries from ethanol to power generation finding new economic logic in CCS. The policy is not elegant, but it is effective: it rewards performance, not promises. Europe’s predicament is particularly frustrating because it is not caused by a lack of capability. The continent has world-leading geological formations in the North Sea, some of the best chemical and process engineering expertise in the world, and decades of experience in offshore operations. What it lacks is the political will to treat carbon capture as a critical part of its industrial and climate strategy, rather than as a last resort to be debated endlessly. The gap between Europe and the United States in CCS economics mirrors earlier transitions in renewables. The U.S. solar and electric vehicle markets surged once incentives were simplified and scaled. Europe, meanwhile, often led in innovation but lagged in deployment, constrained by complex regulatory layers and uneven national support schemes. The same risk now looms over CCS. Europe could again be the laboratory where the ideas are proven, only for the commercial value to be captured elsewhere. This transatlantic divide has real consequences. If Europe fails to make CCS competitive, its energy-intensive industries will face an impossible choice: absorb the cost and lose competitiveness, relocate to regions with clearer incentives, or simply delay decarbonization altogether. Meanwhile, the United States will continue to build a domestic CO2 value chain, creating jobs, developing storage capacity, and lowering the marginal cost of capture through scale. The irony is that Europe pioneered many of the technologies now being deployed across the Atlantic. It has the expertise, the research base, and the moral imperative. But without the right economics, none of that translates into scale. The difference between promise and progress, in the end, is policy design. CCS will be a cornerstone of industrial decarbonization, whether Europe embraces it or not. The question is whether Europe wants to lead that transformation or watch it unfold from the sidelines. For now, the United States is winning the carbon capture race, not because it has better engineers or cheaper geology, but because it decided that ambition without incentive is just talk. Europe would do well to take note.

Brazil to quadruple biofuel production by 2035 – 19 nations support initiative at COP30 -- TV BRICS, 11.11.25 - Brazil intends to increase its biofuel production fourfold by 2035. The announcement was made by the Minister of Mines and Energy of the Republic, Alexandre Silveira de Oliveira, at the 30th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30), held in Belem, Brazil, as reported by Brasil 247, a partner of TV BRICS.According to the minister, this goal has already been supported by 19 countries. Silveira emphasised that this measure will strengthen Brazil’s leadership in clean energy and accelerate the global transition to renewable energy sources.“This strategy strengthens the position of agribusiness, enables a more effective response to climate change, and drives forward the energy transition. As a result, we are not only countering global warming but also making our economy stronger,” said Silveira.At the climate summit, 44 parties signed the Belem Declaration, aimed at addressing challenges related to climate change, hunger and poverty. The document provides for enhanced measures for adaptation and mitigation of climate change effects: social protection for the population, development of crop insurance in agriculture, targeted financing of projects for small farmers, and the establishment of specific indicators for assessing progress.“We recognise that accessible social protection systems, capable of adapting to constantly changing needs, preparing for future risks and responding during crises, are among the most effective and efficient strategies for enhancing resilience, reducing vulnerability and protecting human life and dignity,” the document states, as published on the official website of the Government of Brazil.The Declaration is also aligned with the collective goal for climate change financing adopted at COP29 in Baku. The aim is to attract around US$300 billion annually for developing countries. It is planned to increase the volume of climate financing to at least US$1.3 trillion per year by 2035, with developed countries expected to take the lead in this effort.

Indonesia maps out 920,000 ha of land for ethanol production push - ANTARA News The Indonesian government has identified approximately 920,000 hectares of land for potential use in the country's ethanol blend fuel program, according to Agrarian Affairs Minister Nusron Wahid. The identified land, which is spread across 18 provinces, brings the government close to its goal of 1 million hectares needed to cultivate cassava and sugarcane feedstock, which will be used to produce E10 fuel—a gasoline blend containing 10% ethanol. This initiative is a key part of the national strategy to bolster energy independence and meet global clean energy objectives by producing E10 fuel. The identified land sources include 680,000 hectares from expired, unextended land concessions and 240,000 hectares of abandoned government-designated land. Minister Wahid noted the remaining shortfall, stating, "We are still searching for the remaining 100,000 hectares." With the E10 mandate scheduled to begin in 2027 and an anticipated annual ethanol requirement of 1.4 million kiloliters, the government plans to offer incentives, such as tax holidays, to companies investing in production facilities. Indonesia has also secured international support by signing a cooperation agreement with Brazil for the development of ethanol-based biofuels.

Green finance was supposed to contribute solutions to climate change—so far, it's fallen well short -A decade ago, a seminal speech by Mark Carney, then governor of the Bank of England and current Canadian prime minister, set out how climate change presented an economic risk that threatened the very stability of the financial systemThe speech argued the finance sector must deeply embed climate risk into the architecture of the industry or risk massive damages.It was Carney's description that stuck, calling this the "tragedy of the horizon": "that the catastrophic impacts of climate change will be felt beyond the traditional horizons of most actors, imposing a cost on future generationsthat the current generation has no direct incentive to fix." He added that by the time those climate impacts are a defining issue for financial stability, it may already be too late. Carney's speech triggered global financial markets to start accounting for risks related to climate change. Done well, green finance would flow to those companies contributing solutions to climate change. Those damaging the climate would become less attractive. Governments rolled out strategies to support this evolution in finance, in the European Union, United Kingdom, and Australia's Sustainable Finance Strategy in 2023. Carney's solution to this tragedy lay in better information. In particular, companies must report consistently on their climate change impacts, so that banks and lenders could more clearly assess and manage these risks. A global taskforce was established that set out standards for companies to disclose their impacts on the climate. These standards have subsequently been rolled out around the world, most recently, here in Australia. However, beyond some positive examples, the tragedy of the horizon remains. Indeed, the Network for Greening the Financial System (a grouping of the world's major central banks and regulators from over 90 countries) concluded climate change is no longer a tragedy of the horizon, "but an imminent danger". It has the potential to cost the EU economy up to 5% ofgross domestic product by 2030, an impact as severe as the global financial crisis of 2008. A report this year found climate finance reached US$1.9 trillion (A$2.9 trillion) in 2023, but this was far short of the estimated US$7 trillion (A$10.7 trillion) required annually. A step change in the level of investment in low carbon industries is required if we're to achieve Paris Agreement goals.In the decade since Carney's speech, other critical sustainability issues have arisen that threaten the financial system.The continuing loss of biodiversity has been recognized as posing significantfinancial risks to banks and investors. Up to half of global GDP is estimated to depend on a healthy natural environment.The economic cost of protecting nature has been put at US$700 billion (A$1.07 trillion) a year, compared with only US$100 billion (A$153 billion) currently being spent.The finance sector is falling well short of delivering the level of capital needed to meet our critical sustainability goals. It continues to cause harm byproviding capital to industries that damage nature.Despite nearly a decade of action in sustainable finance, the extensive policy work delivered to fix this tragedy has merely subdued the symptoms, but to date has not overcome the core of the problem.The policy remedies put forward have simply been insufficient to deal with the scale of change required in finance.While sustainable finance has grown, plenty of money is still being made from unsustainable finance that continues to benefit from policies (such as subsidies for fossil fuels) and a lack of pricing for negative environmental impacts (such as carbon emissions and land clearing). While policies such as better climate data are a prerequisite to a greener finance system, research suggests that alone they are insufficient.

China Leads Global Shift In Renewable Energy With Unprecedented Expansion - China has taken a commanding lead in the global renewable energy race, installing nearly 900 gigawatts (GW) of solar power capacity — more than the combined totals of Europe and the United States. This monumental achievement underscores China’s transformation into what experts are calling a “new kind of superpower” — an energy superpower. In 2024, the country generated an impressive 1,826 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity from solar and wind sources. That output is 400% greater than the energy equivalent of all its nuclear warheads, symbolizing the scale of China’s clean energy revolution. The nation’s renewable infrastructure now rivals that of 300 large nuclear power plants, highlighting the immense scale and pace of its green transition. China’s renewable energy expansion has already surpassed many of its climate targets. The government is now focused on increasing renewable capacity by more than 100% and cutting emissions significantly by 2035. This ambitious agenda reflects Beijing’s long-term strategy to secure energy independence and assert global leadership in clean technologies. Beyond its borders, China is also exporting renewable technologies and expertise to markets across Asia, Africa, and Latin America. These initiatives not only enhance global access to clean energy but also strengthen China’s geopolitical and economic influence. The export of solar panels, batteries, and grid systems has become a cornerstone of Beijing’s foreign trade policy. This massive energy transformation is reshaping China’s economy. By reducing its reliance on fossil fuels, the country is mitigating climate-related risks while boosting industrial productivity and technological innovation. As renewable energy becomes the backbone of its power system, China is positioning itself at the center of the global energy transition. Meanwhile, Europe faces increasing pressure to accelerate its own electrification efforts. Schneider Electric estimates that by expanding electrification, European Union member states could save up to €250 billion annually by 2040. However, the continent’s electrification rate has stagnated at 21% for a decade — roughly 10% lower than China’s — while the daily energy cost per EU citizen is double that of China’s residents. To remain competitive in the evolving global energy landscape, analysts warn that Europe must speed up its transition toward a more electrified and sustainable economy.

Meet the Republicans who killed solar subsidies — after using them - At least three Republican lawmakers took advantage of a decades-old rooftop solar credit that will end in January due to President Donald Trump’s megalaw, according to a review of property records and satellite imagery by POLITICO’s E&E News. The lawmakers — with solar arrays on a California villa, a $3 million Utah manse and an off-the-grid Kentucky homestead — all supported ending the perk this summer that sliced thousands of dollars off the cost of installing their panels. California Rep. Ken Calvert, a long-serving Republican who was thrust into a race next year with a member of his own party when the state redrew his conservative district, defended voting to end the solar credit that he used about 15 years ago to offset the cost of putting two rows of panels on the back roof of his ranch-style house in Southern California. “It never was supposed to be permanent,” Calvert said of the credits — a line echoed by other Republicans who criticized renewable energy as unreliable and dependent on subsidies. The law that Trump called his “one big beautiful bill” passed Congress with no Democratic votes and the support of all but five Republicans. E&E News examined the rooftops of 112 members of Congress: every Senate Republican and 59 House GOP lawmakers who are in leadership or facing tough reelection races. The search found that at least seven Republican lawmakers had rooftop panels. Three of them acknowledged using the federal tax credit to help pay for the arrays. One couldn’t recall. Another had leased a solar system that was indirectly subsidized via a separate tax credit for installers. And two other lawmakers didn’t respond to questions about their panels, which were on properties they had recently owned. In addition to Calvert, the other Republican lawmakers who are known to have collected the residential solar credit are Sen. John Curtis of Utah and Rep. Tom Massie of Kentucky, a libertarian who voted against Trump’s megalaw but said in an interview he supports rescinding the solar subsidy — and all tax credits. Curtis said Democrats and solar companies “knew that it was time for the subsidies to go.” The revelations come at a time of rising utility rates and increasing politicization of energy as the Trump administration scraps grants, loans and permits for solar, wind and other renewable energy technologies. The president has dismissed solar panels as part of Democrats’ “green new scam” and called them “a blight on our country.” Trump’s megalaw reinforced the partisan divide on energy. While the legislation primarily extended tax cuts passed in the president’s first term and provided $300 billion for border enforcement and military programs, it also slashed over $484 billion in clean energy incentives. Despite the megalaw’s deep cuts for climate programs, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimated that it would add $3.4 trillion to the national debt over the next decade. The law was a double-whammy for the solar industry. It speeds up the phase-out of both the rooftop solar subsidy tapped by Calvert, Curtis and Massie as well as another credit relied on by project developers to cut the price of leased panels. At the same time, it boosted an oil subsidy created in the early 1900s and included other provisions to increase the production of fossil fuels that are primarily responsible for global warming. “There has been a push, as you know, for a long while to get rid of those tax credits,” said Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski, whose Capitol Hill rowhouse roof has been layered with solar panels for about a decade. “And then when you had Trump come into office, he made it very clear that this was not something that he was going to continue supporting.” A key swing vote on the megalaw, Murkowski couldn’t recall if she received the credit, which can save homeowners thousands of dollars by refunding 30 percent of the cost of buying and installing panels. Analysts say almost everyone who buys a new solar system — the average cost of which is now about $30,000 — files for the benefit.

Minibus backs research and cleanups but guts climate hubs - The shutdown deal announced Sunday includes a package of three fiscal 2026 spending bills that largely reject the sweeping cuts proposed by House Republicans and the Trump administration.However, lawmakers are moving forward with some funding decreases, including for the Department of Agriculture’s climate hubs.The bipartisan package, known as a “minibus,” contains the Agriculture-FDA, Military Construction-Veterans Affairs and Legislative Branch bills. It is expected to be bundled with a new bill to reopen the government until the end of January — part of a broader deal to end the ongoing shutdown.

Environment takeaways from the spending deal - - For the first time in more than a year, the House and Senate produced compromise spending bills that could lay the groundwork for a broader deal to fully fund the government. The package of three fiscal 2026 bills, which cleared the Senate Monday, contains both Democratic and Republican priorities and rejects most of the steep funding cuts sought by the Trump administration and House GOP lawmakers. The bills are the product of months of negotiations, and neither side got everything it wanted. There are wins for conservatives, such as cuts to Department of Agriculture climate hubs, and wins for Democrats, including full funding for the Government Accountability Office. Passage could set the tone for the rest of the fiscal 2026 spending cycle and create a pathway for more bipartisan spending bills — especially with both sides appearing eager to avoid another costly shutdown.It will be paired with a bill to reopen the government through Jan. 30 and a promise of a Senate vote on a Democratic bill to extend expiring health care subsidies.Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.), chair of both the House Freedom Caucus and the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Agriculture, told Fox News that despite the absence of sweeping cuts, he “would probably be a ‘yes’ vote” on the package assuming that the Senate passes it as is.Senate Appropriations ranking member Patty Murray (D-Wash.) touted the Democratic wins in the spending bills, even as she voted against proceeding to the package because of the lack of guaranteed health care reforms. The three bills in the package, known as a “minibus,” are Agriculture-FDA, Legislative Branch and Military Construction-Veterans Affairs. Here are five takeaways from the bipartisan minibus that could head to President Donald Trump’s desk as soon as Wednesday.

• Climate hub cuts. The negotiated Agriculture-FDA bill would slash funding for the USDA’s 10 climate hubs, which produce regional research and data on extreme weather, natural disasters and droughts to help farmers make informed decisions. The office of Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) announced the cuts, but the scope of the reduction is unclear.. The cuts, endorsed by House Republicans, could hit regional climate hubs in the home states or districts of key members of Congress focused on agricultural issues.One of the 10 hubs, for example, is in New Hampshire, home to Democratic Sens. Jeanne Shaheen and Maggie Hassan — two of the lead negotiators of the deal to end the shutdown. Another one of the USDA climate hubs is located in the district of Rep. Frank Lucas (R-Okla.), a former chair of the House Agriculture Committee. Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.), chair of the Natural Resources Subcommittee on Water Resources and Environment, represents a district with another climate hub.So does Rep. Joe Neguse (D-Colo.), who co-chairs caucuses focused on disaster recovery and wildfire management. The district of Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Iowa) also hosts a climate hub.Appropriations leaders likely kept the House’s proposed climate hub cuts in the compromise Agriculture-FDA bill as a sweetener to help maintain Republican support for the full package. They similarly kept the GOP’s proposed reductions to programs focused on urban agriculture.
• Support for water, conservation. The Agriculture-FDA bill supports a range of federal water and conservation programs.Republicans have previously pushed to reduce some USDA conservation assistance for farmers. The Trump administration proposed cutting conservation funds by hundreds of millions of dollars.The legislation contains about $1.4 billion to support the “revitalization of aging water and wastewater infrastructure,” according to a summary. USDA’s Watershed and Flood Prevention Operations budget would get $50 million under the negotiated proposal. An additional $3 million would be set aside “for the rehabilitation of aging dam infrastructure to ensure safety and water access to rural communities,” the summary states.About $10 million would go toward irrigation modernization to “alleviate challenges faced primarily in Western states.” That could include drought, fish and wildlife projects, and certain renewable energy production efforts, according to the bill report.
• Win for energy resilience. The Military Construction-Veterans Affairs bill would provide $730 million to a Pentagon resilience program that supports investments often targeted by Republican lawmakers.The funds would go to the Energy Resilience Conservation Investment Program, which funnels federal dollars toward projects on military installations that “improve energy resilience, contribute to mission assurance, save energy, and reduce [the Department of Defense’s] energy costs,” according to DOD. The Pentagon’s fiscal 2026 guidance for the program lists microgrids, battery storage and “renewable and/or clean energy generation systems” as possible targets, as well as nuclear and geothermal energy. However, it’s unclear whether the agency will continue to direct the funds toward those priorities. The program guidance references Biden-era executive orders directing emissions reductions across the federal government. Trump repealed those orders when he took office.
• Environmental cleanups. The minibus contains hundreds of millions of dollars for environmental remediation to counteract pollution from harmful “forever chemicals” and a major fuel spill.Negotiators included House-passed language providing $50 million for per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, or PFAS, cleanups above the level the Trump administration requested for fiscal 2026. In all, PFAS remediation efforts would get more than $100 million.Appropriators are also providing $53.7 billion in fiscal 2026 funding for the Toxic Exposures Fund, which supports veterans sickened by exposure to burn pits. That is more than double the amount provided in fiscal 2025, according to a bill summary.
• CR details. The continuing resolution attached to the minibus would fund the rest of the government until the end of January, reopening federal agencies and jumpstarting programs that have been partially shuttered for more than a month.Appropriators included language that would reverse the layoffs the Trump administration implemented during the ongoing shutdown, requiring agencies to rehire affected employees and pay them for the time they would have worked. It would bar the administration from dismissing more workers through the duration of the CR. The stopgap contains extensions for a host of programs that lapsed Sept. 30, including the Defense Production Act and the National Flood Insurance Program. A bipartisan duo in the House introduced a bill,H.R. 5848, that would backdate the authorization for the NFIP to Sept. 30 and extend its authorization through the end of 2026. The CR also has a number of funding provisions requested by the White House to ensure certain federal programs do not lapse or run out of funds for the duration of the funding patch.

Energy alliance huddles with Trump officials on powering AI - Energy bigwigs met with Trump administration officials in Washington on Thursday as part of a new initiative aimed at boosting U.S. energy supplies to meet the demand spurred by artificial intelligence.That effort, launched earlier this year and dubbed the American Energy + AI Initiative, is a partnership led by the Hamm Institute for American Energy based out of Oklahoma State University and the Washington lobbying firm CGCN Group.The partnership met Thursday at GE Vernova’s Washington offices with Energy Secretary Chris Wright, Interior Deputy Secretary Katharine MacGregor and industry representatives. The coalition is looking to inform the Trump administration on one of its top policy priorities. “Winning the AI race” is a top objective for the White House, which released an AI “action plan” in July. That document calls for building and maintaining “vast AI infrastructure and the energy to power it,” while rejecting “radical climate dogma and bureaucratic red tape.”

Data center could wipe out tiny Alabama fish, enviros say - Environmentalists fearing plans for a potentially huge data center in Alabama filed a petition Thursday with the Fish and Wildlife Service to secure federal Endangered Species Act protections for the tiny Birmingham darter. Citing what they termed an “imminent threat” to the fish, the Center for Biological Diversity joined with three allied organizations in urging federal officials to list the species as threatened or endangered. “These phenomenal fish will slide further toward extinction if this data center is built, so we have to act fast,” Will Harlan, Southeast director at the CBD, said in a statement. “They’ve been swimming in these creeks for millions of years, but without immediate protections they’ll disappear forever.” According to the petition, only six populations of the recently discovered species remain in a single creek system. The 2-inch-long fish relies on Valley Creek and its tributaries, which the petition contends could be sucked dry if the proposed data center is built in the area about 15 miles southwest of the city of Birmingham.

3-year study maps CO2 spikes from AI data center boom - The U.S. data center boom could spike carbon emissions through the end of the decade to the equivalent of adding 5 million to 10 million cars annually to U.S. roadways and stress water supplies significantly, according to a new peer-reviewed study led by Cornell University researchers. The analysis in Nature Sustainability, three years in the making, aims to quantify the environmental effects of the U.S. artificial intelligence build-out across the country, a task that has been challenging because of the industry’s size and pace of growth. Researchers found that the technology currently is being expanded in a way that will exacerbate emissions and water challenges in many regions, while hindering the ability of large technology companies to reach net-zero targets. “The future is in our hands. AI is growing fast, but the future doesn’t have to come with a penalty to our climate, to our water,” said Fengqi You, an energy systems engineering professor at Cornell and co-author of the study, which was funded partly by the National Science Foundation.At the current rate of growth, U.S. data centers would add 24 million to 44 million metric tons of carbon dioxide annually to the atmosphere through the end of the decade, the study said. The build-out also is projected to drain 731 million to 1,125 million cubic meters of water per year, an amount equivalent to the household usage of 6 million to 10 million Americans.

TotalEnergies Agrees Renewable Power deal with Google for Ohio Data centres (Reuters) – Oil major TotalEnergies has agreed a 15-year power purchase deal to supply Alphabet’s Google with 1.5 terawatt hours of renewable electricity from its Montpelier solar farm in Ohio, the French company said on Wednesday. The solar facility, which is nearing completion, is connected to the PJM grid, the largest in the United States, and will help power Google’s data centre operations in the state, it said. “This agreement illustrates TotalEnergies’s ability to meet the growing energy demands of major tech companies by leveraging its integrated portfolio of renewable and flexible assets,” said Stéphane Michel, President of Gas, Renewables and Power at TotalEnergies. The company’s growing investment in electricity is helping the company secure a steadier revenue stream and avoid the boom-and-bust cycles typical of oil and gas, CEO Patrick Pouyanne said earlier this month at the ADIPEC conference in Abu Dhabi. The Paris-listed firm is deploying a 10 gigawatt portfolio in the United States, with onshore solar, wind and battery storage projects.

Homer City Project Could Get First Data Center Tenant by Dec. 31 -- Marcellus Drilling News - In April, Knighthead Capital Management, Homer City Redevelopment (HCR), and Kiewit Power Constructors Co. announced a plan to convert the former Homer City Generating Station, previously the largest coal-fired power plant in Pennsylvania (Indiana County, 50 miles east of Pittsburgh) into a more than 3,200-acre natural gas-powered data center campus, designed to meet the growing demand for artificial intelligence (AI) and high-performance computing (see Largest Gas-Fired Power Plant in the U.S. Coming in Western Pa.). The new gas-fired plant will be THE LARGEST gas-fired power plant in the country, capable of producing up to 4.5 gigawatts (4,500 MW) of electricity. The project managers aren’t wasting any time. There is such a strong interest in data centers locating at the site that the first official tenant will likely be signed by the end of this year, says Robin Gorman, the vice president of Homer City Redevelopment.

A Giant Problem Emerges For The AI Trade: A Power Shortfall Of 44 Nuclear Power Plants By 2028 For much of the past 18 months we have been banging the table on what we said would be the Next AI Trade (which we first discussed in April 2024) pitching the "picks and shovels" angle of the AI revolution, namely going long the "Power-Up America"basket - i.e., companies that produce and support the massive energy backbone that will be needed to energize the hundreds of new data centers popping up across the country (and which in some cases are now dark because they don't have access to energy) predicting that energy would materially outperform the pure AI/data center trade. That's precisely what has happened as the following chart breaking down the AI trade into its three core components - broad AI, data center equipment, and our preferred trade, Power Up America (or energize the grid) - shows. The blue line has doubled since we first discussed its merits in April '24. Our conviction in this trade was only reinforced by an analysis from Morgan Stanley last December, which found that for the 2025-28 period, "we project ~57 gigawatts (GW) of US data center power demand, and we quantify available power capacity to serve this demand as: near-term grid access of ~12-15 GW, plus ~6 GW of data centers under construction, resulting in a ~36 GW shortfall of US power access for data centers in 2025-28." Indicatively 36GW is sufficient to power ~27 million homes. Instead it will be going to power chatbots. Fast forward one year since Morgan Stanley published its original estimate when this morning Morgan Stanley's strategist Stephen Byrd published his follow up report, "Powering AI: Bitcoin Conversion: Business Models, a US Power Shortage, and the Big Picture" (available to pro subs), in which he reassessed US power needs through 2028. It will probably not come as a surprise to anyone, that his latest estimate is materially higher, rising to a staggering 44GW.... or roughly the output equivalent of 44 nuclear power plants! No wonder the Trump admin recently announced that it was prepared to lend hundreds of billions from the Energy Department's Loan Programs Office almost exclusively to nuclear power plants to kickstart this process.While the full Morgan Stanley note is a must read for those who have an interest in the AI trade, and certainly in the details of the "Next AI trade", and includes a detailed analysis on Bitcoin-to-Data center conversions, the non-linear rate of AI improvement and the continued upward growth in compute demand (we urge all pro subscribers to read it), what we focus on in this post is the bank's revised estimate of power shortfall facing US data center developers (we will discuss the financial implications in a subsequent post, suffice to note that 1GW in data center capacity costs roughly $50 - 60 billion in total capex spend). For its revised projection, Morgan Stanley conducted a probability-weighted assessment of the ability to satisfy US data center power demand, and found that with 69GW in total data center power demand from today until 2028, some 10GW will be satisfied with Data Centers under construction, and another 15GW through Utility Grid Access.That leaves a 44GW power shortfall, or a number so staggering any hopes of the AI revolution growing into Wall Street's optimistic projections implodes instantly... unless of course the government steps in to foot the bill (we will have more to say on that in a subsequent post).

Anti-Fossil Fuel Groups Like Protect PT Morph to Anti-Data Center -- Marcellus Drilling News - As we have reported since July, Pennsylvania has the opportunity to become THE leader in the AI data center race with an ambitious $92 billion, state-level initiative announced by U.S. Senator Dave McCormick (see Pittsburgh Energy Event Truly Mind-Blowing, $92B+ Investments for PA). PA’s strategy has attracted unprecedented private investment, including Blackstone’s $25 billion redevelopment of an Aliquippa steel mill, CoreWeave’s $6 billion Lancaster data center, and a $15 billion hub near Carlisle. Natural gas is the key to all of it (see PA’s $92 Billion Race for America’s Data Centers – NatGas the Key). Because the AI data center strategy hinges on natgas, anti-fossil fuelers, like a group called Protect PT, oppose it and plan to fight it, jeopardizing the state’s $92 billion opportunity

USA Energy Dept Announces $625MM to Renew 5 NQISR Centers - The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announced, in a statement posted on its website recently, $625 million in funding to renew its five National Quantum Information Science Research Centers (NQISRC). In the statement, the DOE said the renewal of its National Quantum Information Science Research Centers “advances President Trump’s directive to restore American leadership in quantum science and technology”. It added that the DOE “is aligning its quantum research enterprise with national priorities, focusing resources on advancing critical R&D across the American QIS, strengthening the quantum innovation ecosystem, accelerating discoveries that power next-generation technologies, and securing American leadership in quantum computing, hardware, and applications”. The DOE highlighted in the statement that each NQISRC “supports fundamental science with disruptive potential across quantum computing, simulation, networking, and sensing”; “develops unique tools, equipment, and instrumentation that unlock transformative new QIS capabilities”; “advances quantum technology through application to DOE’s most pressing scientific and national security challenge areas”, and “establishes community resources, workforce opportunities, and industry partnerships to strengthen the entire QIS ecosystem”. Center renewals comprise the Co-design Center for Quantum Advantage (C2QA), the Superconducting Quantum Materials and Systems Center (SQMS), Q-NEXT, Quantum Systems Accelerator (QSA), and the Quantum Science Center (QSC), the DOE pointed out in the statement. The awards were selected by competitive peer review under the DOE National Laboratory Program Announcement for the National Quantum Information Science Research Centers, the DOE noted in the statement. The organization added that total funding is $625 million for awards lasting up to five years in duration, “with $125 million in Fiscal Year 2025 dollars and outyear funding contingent on congressional appropriations”. The DOE highlighted in the statement that “selection for award negotiations is not a commitment by DOE to issue an award or provide funding”. “Before funding is issued, DOE and the applicants will undergo a negotiation process, and DOE may cancel negotiations and rescind the selection for any reason during that time,” it pointed out.

Upstate NY Bitcoin Miner Wins! DEC Issues 5-Year Title V Air Permit - Marcellus Drilling News - Sometimes the good guys win, and man, oh, man, it is sure sweet when it happens! We have a grin from ear to ear today upon learning the news that bitcoin miner Greenidge has won a four-year battle with New York Governor Kathy Hochul’s Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC), forcing the DEC to issue the company’s gas-fired power plant on the shore of Seneca Lake a Title V federal air permit to remain open and operational for the next five years. TOTAL VICTORY over the mouthy and wackadoodle environmental left that tried (and failed) to shut down this operation.

Hochul enrages environmentalists with shift to ‘all of the above’ energy policy - Gov. Kathy Hochul once blocked two gas power plants and championed New York’s trailblazing effort to combat climate change.But as she prepares for what’s expected to be a tough reelection battle next year, Hochul (D) has steered a monumental pivot on energy policy.On Friday, Hochul approved a new gas pipeline championed by President Donald Trump and cut a deal that will keep a gas-fueled cryptocurrency miner running for five more years. The two decisions have sparked outrage from the progressive environmental wing of her party — with three climate-focused groups pointedly endorsing her primary opponent this week.“She did not just approve a fossil fuel project. She made a moral choice,” Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado (D), who is primarying Hochul, said on Monday. “New Yorkers deserve a governor who does not treat the climate crisis as a PR problem, but as a test of moral leadership.” Hochul says she is prioritizing concerns about energy affordability and reliability as she rejects more than a decade of climate orthodoxy in New York. With Trump’s antipathy toward renewables like solar and wind, increasing energy demand and skyrocketing utility bills, moderate Democrats like Hochul are embracing an “all of the above” approach to energy policy. “We need to govern in reality,” Hochul said Friday. “We are facing war against clean energy from Washington Republicans, including our New York delegation, which is why we have adopted an all-of-the-above approach that includes a continued commitment to renewables and nuclear power to ensure grid reliability and affordability.” Hochul has enacted a “monumental pivot” on energy policy, moving away from her previous climate-forward agenda, citing concerns over energy affordability and grid reliability ahead of a tough re-election bid. The governor recently approved a new gas pipeline and settled a lawsuit to keep the gas-fueled Greenidge cryptocurrency miner operating for five more years. This shift has ignited “outrage” from the progressive environmental wing of her party, leading three major climate groups to endorse her primary opponent, Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado. Hochul defends the “all-of-the-above” approach, claiming it is necessary to govern in reality amid rising costs and grid warnings, reflecting a national trend among moderate Democrats prioritizing near-term economic concerns over aggressive climate targetsHochul’s shift reflects a national realignment and recognition by many Democrats that ambitious climate targets are proving more challenging than they’d hoped, and near-term pocketbook concerns, including high energy costs, are a higher priority for voters.

Trump Adds Coal To Critical Minerals List -- The pariah of fossil fuels has been given pride of place in the Trump administration’s ambitions for a more secure supply of critical minerals. Last week, the Interior Department added 10 minerals to a list it deems essential for the US economy and national security. Along with metallurgical coal used in steelmaking, the list includes copper, silver, boron, lead, phosphate, potash, rhenium and silicon. As reported by Reuters, The list serves as a blueprint for Washington's push to secure supplies of materials needed for defense, manufacturing, and clean energy technologies. It determines which projects qualify for federal incentives, informs national stockpiling and research priorities, and signals to private investors where the government sees long-term strategic value. Officials and industry leaders say strengthening domestic production could help insulate the U.S. from potential supply shocks or export restrictions imposed by competitors like China, which dominates global refining of many critical minerals. Still, it was surprising to see coal on the list, along with uranium, which is enriched to fuel nuclear reactors. Uranium mining has been banned in some North American jurisdictions, including British Columbia, and on the Navajo Nation and in the Grand Canyon in the US. Extraction in Quebec has been subject to an unofficial moratorium since 2013 due to environmental concernsCountries including Germany, Switzerland, Italy and Taiwan decided to phase out nuclear power following the Fukushima disaster that happened during the Japanese tsunami of 2011.The United States is the largest nuclear power in terms of both installed capacity and electricity generation. Its installed capacity of 102 gigawatts is significantly more than France or China.Coal is being eased out as a fossil fuel in advanced economies, driven by climate policies and cheaper renewables. It is considered the dirtiest fossil fuel because it emits more carbon dioxide per unit of energy produced, and its combustion releases significant amounts of other harmful pollutants like sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides.The United Kingdom closed its last coal power station in September 2024. Belgium, Sweden and Portugal have completely phased it out. Germany infamously turned to coal during the energy crisis of 2022, when Russia cut shipments of natural gas to Europe. The country has a plan to phase out coal by 2038. It's a different story in emerging economies. Coal demand reached an all-time high in 2024, with growth primarily in the Asia Pacific region, particularly India and China. China continues to build new coal power capacity, partly to back up intermittent solar and wind power. In 2023, China's new coal power construction was significantly higher than the rest of the world combined.

Aging Coal Plants Could Cost Americans Billions - Back in April, U.S. President Donald Trump signed anexecutive order that, among other things, recognized coal as a critical mineral and opened federal lands to coal mining. Trump ordered the Secretary of Energy to examine the potential for expanding coal-based infrastructure to meet the electricity needs of AI data centers and other high-performance computing operations. Then in May, Trump ordered the massive JH Campbell coal-fired power plant at the edge of Lake Michigan to be kept open for three months, before extending the deadline until November, days before the plant was due for closure after beginning operations in 1962. In June, the Department of Energy ordered the Eddystone Generating Station near Philadelphia to continue operations, citing an energy emergency declared by Trump. The 50-year old oil and gas power plant was due for closure due to economic reasons. So far, the Trump administration has granted “pollution passes” to 71 high-pollution plants, including coal plants and dozens of copper smelting facilities. Coal is, by far, the dirtiest fossil fuel, with natural gas plants producing 50-60% less emissions than coal plants for a similar amount of power generated. The experts have labeled this as “ Trump’s political takeover of the electricity grid” and warned it will result in higher electricity bills, more pollution and a worsening climate crisis. Trump’s orders for old fossil fuel power plants to remain open do appear more political than strategic, with Michigan’s grid operator MISO stressing it had “adequate resources to meet peak demand this summer” without the contribution of JH Campbell. And now the experts are warning that it’s American taxpayers who will pay the cost if Trump continues supporting old fossil fuel plants. Consumers Energy initially estimated that the closure of JH Campbell alone would save $600 million by 2040 as the company shifts to cheaper, cleaner energy sources.According to Grid Strategies, American ratepayers will pay more than $3.1 billion in extra power bills every year if Trump mandates that fossil fuel plants slated for retirement continue operating through 2028. Even more alarming, the power sector consulting firm has predicted that Trump’s actions are likely to create a “perverse incentive” whereby plant owners will claim they plan to shut down thus inducing the Federal government to step in to keep their plants alive. Grid Strategies estimates that power bills could increase by as much as $6 billion if the country’s entire fleet of aging fossil fuel plants is kept open during Trump’s entire term, with California, Texas and Colorado likely to see the highest increases.But Grid Strategies’ is not the only damning report for fossil fuel-powered plants. A 2023 report by nonpartisan think tank Energy Innovation found that fully 99% of existing U.S. coal plants are more expensive to run than new, locally-sourced wind, solar, and energy storage resources. This cost comparison includes not only generation costs but also the "all-in" cost of building and operating new renewable energy and battery systems compared to continuing to run older, less efficient coal plants. Falling costs is a big reason why renewable generation is now competitive with fossil fuels. Last month, we reported that U.S. utility-scale battery storage has surged more than 15-fold since 2020 thanks in large part to a large decline in battery prices. Lithium-ion battery prices now range from $85-$100 per kilowatt-hour (kWh), down from more than $1,000 per kWh 15 years ago.According to financial advisory and asset management firm Lazard, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for utility-scale solar farms paired with batteries now ranges from $50-$131 per megawatt hour (MWh), making the pair competitive with new natural gas peaking plants (LCOE of $47 to $170 per MWh) and even new coal-fired plants with LCOE of $114 per MWh. According to Lazard's 2025 LCOE+ report, new-build renewable energy power plants are the most competitive form of power generation on an unsubsidized basis (i.e., without tax subsidies). This is highly significant in the current era of unprecedented power demand growth in large part due to the AI boom and clean energy manufacturing. Renewables also stand out as the quickest-to-deploy generation resource, with the solar plus battery combination often boasting far shorter deployment times compared to constructing new natural gas power plants.That said, the experts have predicted that Trump’s actions will likely forestall the ongoing decline by the coal sector, but fail to stop it, “The administration may slow the retirement trend although they are unlikely to stop it,” Timothy Fox, an energy analyst at ClearView, told the Guardian. The coal industry is generally considered to be in a long-term, if slow-burn, decline globally, driven by factors like the falling cost of renewable energy, climate change regulations, and declining investor confidence.

Dive teams search three times for missing miner in flooded Rolling Thunder coal mine, West Virginia - Dive teams entered the Rolling Thunder Mine three times between Saturday and Monday, November 10 as rescue operations continued for a miner who went missing after a section of the underground coal mine flooded in Nicholas County, West Virginia. The flood began shortly after 13:30 local time on Saturday, when crews reportedly struck an uncharted pocket of water deep inside the mine. Most miners in the affected section were able to evacuate. However, one miner, located approximately 1.2 km (0.75 miles) from the opening, was unable to escape. Officials said that several million gallons of water entered the mine, submerging tunnels, and is now obstructing rescue efforts. By late Sunday, November 9, roughly 2.7 million gallons had been pumped out, but large sections remained inaccessible to ground teams. Rescue and recovery operations are being led by the West Virginia Office of Miners’ Health, Safety, and Training, with assistance from the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA), state police, and the West Virginia Emergency Management Division. Alpha Metallurgical Resources, the mine’s operator, is coordinating on-site safety and logistical support. The dive teams, trained for confined and low-visibility environments, made three separate entries into the mine’s flooded zone. Officials said the dives were limited by poor visibility and unstable air conditions. As of Monday evening, the missing miner had not been located, and search efforts remained in active rescue status.

Six US states to watch as rising gas prices drive a coal comeback - Reuters -- A significant rise in U.S. natural gas costs in 2025 has spurred utilities to reverse the multi-year trend of declining coal use, opting to boost coal-fired electricity generation to curb consumer bills. Benchmark natural gas futures, up 44% from last year, averaged $3.57 per million British thermal units, making coal, which is approximately 20% cheaper, the preferred fuel. Through the first seven months of the year, national coal output rose by about 16%, while gas generation dropped by 4%. This cost-saving shift is most prominent in six states—Arkansas, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, South Carolina, and Wisconsin—which collectively saw a 26% increase in coal burning. Although this coal revival will lead to a short-term swell in power sector emissions, cost pressures and political support are expected to sustain the trend in the months ahead.

WV announces more than $4B in energy investments in past month - Governor Patrick Morrisey announced that West Virginia secured nearly $4.2 billion in private-sector energy investments and more than 4,200 new jobs in under a month, asserting the state as a dominant force in American energy. Key projects include a $2.5 billion natural gas power plant creating 3,200 construction jobs, $1.44 billion to extend the life of six coal-fired plants, and a $1.2 billion gas-fired plant in Harrison County. These announcements support the Governor’s “50 by 50” initiative, which aims to increase baseload generation to 50 GW by 2050. The nearly $4.2 billion secured required only a minimal $1 million, repayable state contribution, showcasing the state’s success in attracting investment without major taxpayer funding.

Ohio Bill Updating Law Governing O&G Wells Gets Pushback -- Marcellus Drilling News - One month ago, we reported that Ohio Republican Senators had introduced Senate Bill (SB) 219, the first significant update to Ohio’s oil and gas laws since the Kasich administration more than a decade ago (see Ohio Bill Makes Major Changes to Law Governing O&G Wells). SB 219, introduced by Sen. Al Landis, aims to reform Ohio’s orphaned oil and gas well program. The bill proposes establishing the Oil and Gas Resolution and Remediation Fund, funded by filing fees and penalties, to protect orphan well funds from being raided by the state legislature (as often happens now). The bill also streamlines notification procedures for abandoned wells, accelerates drilling by eliminating the Ohio Department of Natural Resources’ (ODNR) discretion to deny expedited project reviews, and makes road-use agreements with local governments voluntary and capped at three years. It won’t surprise you that anti-fossil fuel nutters are pushing back. It may surprise you that some county leaders and landowners are also pushing back.

Antis Sue ODNR for Approving 2 Injection Wells Near Marietta, OH - Since August, we’ve reported about an ongoing war of words between the City of Marietta officials (mostly Republicans) and the Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR) over a permit for a fifth wastewater injection well located close to the city (see Marietta, OH Officials Ask ODNR to Deny Permit for Injection Well). In September, the ODNR rejected Marietta’s appeal and went ahead and issued a permit for the well (see ODNR Rejects Marietta Hearing Request, Issues Injection Well Permit). Not happy with the outcome, in October, the Marietta City Council passed three resolutions to block new injection wells in the area (see Marietta, OH, Passes 3 Resolutions Against Injection Wells). And now, a state environmental group, the Buckeye Environmental Network, backed by lawyers from the controversial Earthjustice, has sued the ODNR over permitting the new well and one other injection well in the Marietta area.

Vallourec announces multi-million dollar investment in a new premium threading line in Youngstown, Ohio -- Vallourec, a world leader in premium tubular solutions, announced today a US$48 million investment to expand its operations in Youngstown, Ohio. The investment will support the creation of a new Premium Threading Line within Vallourec’s existing steel making, rolling and finishing operations. This addition will offer a competitive, fully integrated domestic manufacturing route and strengthen Vallourec’s position in the Oil Country Tubular Goods (OCTG) market in the US. This new line will increase capacity to thread VAM® high-torque connections, which are increasingly used in onshore wells with long laterals. This development marks a major milestone in Vallourec’s ongoing commitment to US manufacturing excellence and energy innovation. Construction began in July 2025 and is expected to be completed by early 2027, with no disruption to current operations. Once operational, this new line will create 40 full-time-equivalent positions, expand the local supply chain, and support the regional energy industry, further reinforcing Ohio’s industrial ecosystem. Vallourec North America is a fully integrated supplier of 100% Made in America seamless tubes. The company delivers best-in-class tubular solutions capable of withstanding the most extreme environments across the energy and industrial sectors. At the core of Vallourec’s US operations lies a strong circular economy approach: its seamless tubes are manufactured entirely from recycled scrap metal. Vallourec’s North American headquarters are located in Houston, Texas, and its main production facility is based in Youngstown, Ohio. With nearly 2000 employees in North America, the United States represents Vallourec’s largest market globally.

Infinity Natural Resources Announces Third Quarter 2025 Results, Updates 2025 Guidance and Announces $75 Million Share Repurchase Program - Infinity Natural Resources, Inc. today reported its third quarter 2025 financial and operating results and updated 2025 guidance. Additionally, Infinity's Board of Directors approved a share repurchase program of up to $75 million. Third Quarter 2025 & Recent Highlights:

• Delivered 39% growth in total net daily production to 36.0 MBoe/d in the third quarter 2025 compared to the third quarter 2024
  • Increased natural gas production 70% compared to third quarter 2024 with an additional three-well natural gas pad expected to be turned in line in the fourth quarter 2025
• Reported net income of $40.0 million
• Delivered Adjusted EBITDAX⁽¹⁾ of $60.0 million, representing an Adjusted EBITDAX Margin⁽¹⁾ of $18.12 / Boe, which we believe is the best among our Appalachian Basin peers
• Placed ten wells into sales in the third quarter totaling approximately 162,000 lateral feet comprised of (a) six oil-weighted wells in the Ohio Utica Shale and (b) four natural gas-weighted wells in the Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania
• Acquired approximately 3,000 net acres during the quarter, increasing working interest in our active development projects and enhancing future projects
• Generated $186.7 million of net cash provided by operating activities for the nine months ended September 30, 2025
• Development capital expenditures incurred of $83.2 million, including drilling and completion (“D&C”) and midstream
• Total net debt was approximately $70.8 million as of September 30, 2025
• Increased the borrowing base under its revolving credit facility to $375 million on October 1, 2025
• Total liquidity was $304.3 million as of October 1, 2025

Infinity Natural Resources targets 33.5–35 MBoe per day for 2025 while launching $75M share repurchase program -Earnings Call Insights: Infinity Natural Resources, Inc. (INR) Q3 2025 Management View

• CEO Zack Arnold highlighted "exceptional results that demonstrate our continued momentum across the Appalachian Basin," with 39% total production growth year-over-year to 36.0 MBoe per day for the quarter and 70% growth in natural gas production compared to Q3 2024. He noted a single day net production record of 47.9 MBoe per day in October.
• Arnold reported the company placed 10 wells into sales during the quarter, split between 6 oil-weighted wells in Ohio Utica and 4 natural gas wells in Pennsylvania Marcellus. He added the team "drilled 93,000 lateral feet and completed 442 stages across 6 wells during the quarter" and set a new company record by exceeding 16 completion stages in 24 hours on a Guernsey County project.
• Strategic initiatives included acquiring 3,000 net acres across 350 transactions, increasing working interest in active projects. Arnold described these additions as "among the highest returning dollars we invest."
• Production guidance for full year 2025 was raised to 33.5 to 35 MBoe per day from the previous 32 to 35 MBoe per day range. Development capital expenditure guidance was updated to $270 to $292 million.
• CFO David Sproule stated, "we delivered a 39% increase in net production to 36 MBoe per day year-over-year... natural gas production increased 70% year-over-year to 138 MMcf per day for Q3 2025."
• Sproule added, "we also continue to drive cash operating costs lower, the $6.09 per Boe from $9.42 per Boe in the prior year's quarter," and "generated adjusted EBITDA of $60 million during the quarter and an adjusted EBITDA margin of $18.12 per Boe."
• Sproule announced, "our Board of Directors has authorized a $75 million share repurchase program, reflecting confidence in our underlying long-term value for our business, the strength of our balance sheet, and the undervalued nature of our stock price relative to our performance."

Outlook

• Full-year 2025 net daily production guidance was raised to 33.5 to 35 MBoe per day, from 32 to 35 MBoe per day, citing strong well performance and operational successes.
• Full-year total development capital expenditure guidance was updated to a range of $270 to $292 million, compared to the previous combined D&C and midstream CapEx guidance of $249 to $292 million.
• Management signaled continued flexibility between oil and gas development, with a nearly 50-50 split expected for 2025.

EOG Utica Production “Stronger Than Expected” – Drilled Dry Gas Well - Marcellus Drilling News - EOG Resources, one of the largest oil and gas drillers in the U.S. (with international operations in several other countries), issued its third quarter update last week. EOG closed on its purchase of Utica driller Encino Energy in August (see EOG Closes on $5.6B Purchase of Encino Assets in Ohio Utica). Over the past three months, EOG has worked to integrate the Encino assets into what the company calls one of its “foundational plays” — the Utica — with a combined 1.1 million leased acres. According to EOG Executive VP & COO, Jeffrey Leitzell, production volumes outperformed in 3Q25, “largely driven by stronger-than-expected base production performance in our Utica asset.”

EOG Completes $5.7B Purchase of Encino Acquisition Partners – Rigzone - EOG Resources Inc has consummated its takeover of Encino Acquisition Partners (EAP) from the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) Investment Board and Encino Energy for $5.7 billion subject to post-closing adjustments. "In the Utica, the integration of the Encino assets is proceeding exceptionally well, with continued incremental efficiency gains", EOG chair and chief executive Ezra Yacob said in the company's quarterly report. The transaction involved the purchase of CPP's 98 percent stake and Encino Energy's two percent stake in EAP, which the two formed 2017, CPP said May 30 announcing the deal. The acquisition grows EOG's Utica shale position by 675,000 net acres to 1.1 million net acres with over two billion net barrels of oil equivalent undeveloped resources, Houston, Texas-based EOG said in a separate statement May 30. "Pro forma production totals 275,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day creating a leading producer in the Utica shale play", EOG said then. "The acquisition expands EOG's core acreage in the volatile oil window, which averages 65 percent liquids production, by 235,000 net acres for a combined contiguous position of 485,000 net acres", EOG said at the time. "In the natural gas window, the acquisition adds 330,000 net acres along with existing natural gas production with firm transportation exposed to premium end markets. "In the northern acreage, where the company has delivered outstanding well results, EOG increases its existing average working interest by more than 20 percent".

Smart Sand Rides Higher Sales To Record Quarterly Revenue - Smart Sand raked in a record $92.8 million in revenue last quarter, up 24% from last year, thanks to surging sand sales in Canada and the Utica shale region. This jump in Smart Sand’s earnings shows just how strong demand is for fracking materials right now, paired with solid execution from the company. A mix of higher sales and better pricing lifted adjusted EBITDA to $13.6 million, while gross profit rose to $14.9 million. The firm posted $0.08 earnings per share, and handed $6.4 million back to shareholders so far this year through dividends and buybacks. A one-off $4.4 million gain from higher-than-expected sand sales also boosted profits. With full-year sales expected to hit between 5.1 and 5.4 million tons and steady free cash flow in the forecast, Smart Sand’s push into Canada and Utica is giving it clear momentum.Selling more sand to major energy regions like Canada and Utica is helping Smart Sand carve out a bigger role in North America’s proppant market – even as the sector evolves. The company’s measured approach, with $15 to $17 million in expected 2025 capital spending and a focus on returning surplus cash, could strike a chord with investors looking for both growth and steady payouts.Smart Sand’s standout results show how robust shale activity continues to prop up a whole network of industrial suppliers. As energy producers prioritize efficiency and output, businesses providing key inputs like sand are positioned to gain – with ripple effects likely to reach equipment, logistics, and infrastructure companies throughout the broader energy supply chain.

Appalachian Producers Reverse Shut-ins as Winter's Approach Lifts Natural Gas Prices - After months of price-driven well shut-ins that helped steady Appalachian markets, firming natural gas prices are drawing production back online ahead of winter — following a reactive strategy for managing basis risk that the region’s largest producer, EQT Corp., has embraced. East Region gas production remained steady through mid-2025 as Texas Eastern M-2, 30 Receipt prices fluctuated between $1.50 and $3.50/MMBtu, ending the period with a sharp late-October rebound. At A Glance:
Tetco M-2 benchmark surges past $3
Analysts expect Appalachian supply rebound
Appalachia’s forward curve basis strengthens

Coterra NE Pa. Gas Well Gets Frisky, Sprays Mist During Fracking - Marcellus Drilling News - On October 22, Coterra Energy reported a well control incident during fracking the 12H well on the Lauer pad in Susquehanna County to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP). A loss of control resulted in the high-pressure release of an unknown quantity of fracking and production fluids, along with natural gas, causing the fluid to “spray” on and off the well pad. Coterra, which was fracking five wells simultaneously, called in Cudd Well Control Services and did not regain control until 49 hours later on October 24, after installing a second bridge plug.

24 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Nov 3 – 9 - Marcellus Drilling News - You knew the number of new permits issued in the M-U would come back down to earth sooner or later. Last week it happened. After three consecutive weeks with numbers of 37, 39, and 37, the number of new permits issued fell to 24 last week. Still respectable, but not in the coveted 30s. Pennsylvania issued 16 new permits last week, up from 13 the prior week. Ohio issued 6 new permits, down from 8 the prior week. West Virginia was shut out, issuing no new permits last week, which was the main reason why the number fell precipitously. ANTERO RESOURCES | BEAVER COUNTY | BEECH RESOURCES | BRADFORD COUNTY | COLUMBIANA COUNTY | EOG RESOURCES | EXPAND ENERGY |JKLM ENERGY | LYCOMING COUNTY | NOBLE COUNTY | RANGE RESOURCES CORP | SABRE ENERGY | SULLIVAN COUNTY | TIOGA COUNTY (PA) | WASHINGTON COUNTY

New York approves controversial gas pipeline -The state of New York has approved a contentious natural gas pipeline that is expected to bring fuel to New York City residents but is drawing fire from some Democrats. On Friday, New York’s Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) issued a permitallowing for the construction of the Northeast Supply Enhancement (NESE) pipeline. This vessel would bring gas from Pennsylvania to Brooklyn, Queens and Long Island. In a statement, Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) cited the state’s energy needs and said it is taking an “all-of-the-above” approach. “As Governor, a top priority is making sure the lights and heat stay on for all New Yorkers as we face potential energy shortages downstate as soon as next summer,” Hochul said. “And while I have expressed an openness to natural gas, I have also been crystal clear that all proposed projects must be reviewed impartially by the required agencies to determine compliance with state and federal laws. I am comfortable that in approving the permits, including a water quality certification, for the NESE application, the DEC did just that,” she added. The decision comes after New York’s grid operator recently warned that the state could soon face reliability challenges.

Pipeline project breaks through in once-resistant Northeast - Shale gas producers have complained for years that New York’s resistance to pipelines amounts to an “energy blockade.” But on Friday, one project got through. The state’s environmental regulators gave their blessing, in the form of a water quality certification, to a New York city-area pipeline. New Jersey joined in, clearing hurdles for the Northeast Supply Enhancement project, or NESE, that seemed insurmountable just a year ago. The decision follows President Donald Trump’s strong-arm tactics to force New York to accept new fossil fuel infrastructure. Trump has claimed that Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul agreed to consider new gas pipelines in return for him lifting his administration’s unprecedented halt on an under-construction offshore wind project. Hochul, however, has denied there was a deal, casting her administration’s approval as pragmatism — “making sure the lights and heat stay on.” Still, Hochul said Friday that Trump’s hostility to renewable energy is part of the reason why New York needs an “all-of-the-above” approach that includes fossil fuels along with nuclear power. “We are facing a war against clean energy from Washington Republicans,” Hochul said in an emailed statement. “And while I have expressed an openness to natural gas, I have also been crystal clear that all proposed projects must be reviewed impartially by the required agencies to determine compliance with state and federal laws.” White House officials said the NESE project will create jobs, keep the lights on and keep New Yorkers warm, and they cast it as a hand extended across the country’s partisan divide. “As promised, President Trump is unleashing American energy dominance across the country — even in Blue states like New York — because he is a President for all Americans,” said White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers. “President Trump is restoring our energy dominance by building beautiful pipelines.” Jim Welty, president of Marcellus Shale Coalition, said Friday’s progress on NESE is “an important step in beginning to lift the energy blockade” that he said hurt consumers. But “more must be done to build additional pipelines that connect the energy-hungry regions with Pennsylvania’s natural gas abundance,” said Welty, whose group represents shale gas producers in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Friday’s double approval by New York and New Jersey is a huge step forward for NESE. But it doesn’t guarantee the project’s completion — nor necessarily serve as a harbinger of more Northeast fossil fuel projects. The Natural Resources Defense Council, along with other groups, is already challenging federal moves supporting the project and said Friday it will be also challenging state approval in federal court. And Williams Cos., the developer behind NESE, has withdrawn its water permit application for a second Northeast pipeline project, the 124-mile Constitution pipeline. The company plans to follow up with additional filings. But NESE’s progress is a sign that Democratic governors in the Northeast might reduce their resistance to new natural gas infrastructure in the face of rising energy costs. In her statement, Hochul stressed “affordability,” the buzzword Democrats repeated as they rode to victory in last week’s elections in New Jersey and elsewhere. Williams released a statement from company CEO Chad Zamarin that emphasized the point. “There is increasing recognition that energy affordability directly impacts everyday affordability,” said Zamarin. “Expanding natural gas infrastructure is vital to lowering costs and increasing economic opportunity, and the NESE and Constitution projects are important to connecting energy to opportunity in the Northeast.” NESE would add a 24-mile pipeline running underwater from New Jersey into New York. It would be added to Williams’ 10,000-mile Transcontinental system that connects the New York metro area to Gulf states. New Jersey would host three miles of onshore pipe. Williams has said it hopes to put NESE into operation by the end of 2027.

NY’s Jan. 1 Ban on New Gas Hookups Delayed by Lawsuit - Marcellus Drilling News - In January 2023, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, a leftist Democrat, floated a plan to ban natural gas hookups in every single new home and business across the “Empire” State (see NY Gov. Hochul Loses Her Mind – Wants to Ban Gas in New Buildings). She even wanted to ban gas in existing homes, but that was too much to stomach even for NY’s leftwing Democrats (see New York Legislators Block Hochul NatGas Ban for Existing Homes). As part of the 2023-2024 budget deal, Hochul got her statewide ban on new hookups (see NY State has Fallen – Gas Stoves & Peaker Plants Banned in Budget). So, beginning Jan. 1, 2026, new homes (or businesses) in New York State will not be allowed to connect to an existing natural gas pipeline system. Except Hochul is now backpeddling, using a lawsuit as an excuse to delay implementing the new law.

Massachusetts considers expanding effort to ban gas in new buildings - Massachusetts lawmakers may double the number of cities and towns allowed to ban fossil fuels in new construction. A bill under consideration would add up to 10 communities to an ongoing pilot program that proponents say is already reducing emissions, making homes healthier, and lowering energy bills — all without stifling the development of new housing.Cities including Salem and Somerville are lining up to participate in an expanded program, and some local leaders in Worcester are eager to take part, too. Boston, the state’s largest city, has previously expressed interest in joining.“We’re a coastal community that’s going to bear the brunt of climate change,” said state Rep. Manny Cruz, a Democrat representing Salem. “We want to make sure we’re doing our part to mitigate the damage.”As Massachusetts strives to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, it has prioritized policies that encourage the transition away from fossil fuels, particularly natural gas. In 2022, as part of a wide-ranging climate law, the state created a pilot authorizing 10 municipalities to prohibit fossil-fuel hookups in new construction and major renovations. In 2023, it introduced an optional building code aimed at reducing energy consumption and preparing for an all-electric future, and later that same year, regulators issued guidelines for natural-gas utilities to evolve toward clean energy.Massachusetts joins other states and cities pursuing such policies. New York this summer became the first state to commit to an all-electric building standard, though Gov. Kathy Hochul, a Democrat, is now under pressure to delay the implementation of these rules. Dozens of local governments nationwide have measures on the books barring gas use in new buildings and renovations, and some have policies to ratchet down fossil-fuel appliances in existing structures over time, too. Advocates hope Massachusetts’ pilot paves the way for the legislature to allow all 351 of the state’s cities and towns to choose their own path on fossil-fuel restrictions. The bill still faces committee votes in both the House and Senate. Single-issue bills like this one are rarely approved by the full legislature, but are instead wrapped into a larger package, said state Sen. Michael Barrett, a Democrat and chair of the legislature’s telecommunications, utilities, and energy committee, which heard testimony on the bill late last month.

Ontario Gas Power Burn at Records on Nuke Outages -Natural gas consumption for power generation (“power burn”) in Canada’s most populous province of Ontario has recorded record seasonal highs since mid-September (green dashed rectangle in chart below) and not far below summer peaks when power load is at its highest because of air conditioning loads. As discussed in RBN’s Canadian NatGas Billboard, September, October and November-to-date average power burn have set records for each respective month with expectations of elevated burn to at least the end of the year. The latest surge in power burn occurred when the Darlington #1 reactor (878 MW) went offline from October 18 to November 8 (joining downtime for Pickering #6 which went down on September 18) reducing total nuclear generation by approximately 10% (black dashed rectangle in chart below). The unit’s full return to service on November 9 has only marginally reduced gas power burn as other seasonal factors (cooler weather and shorter daylight hours) have come to bear on the Ontario power market. In addition, at least three nuclear reactors are currently offline for refurbishment with staggered restarts currently scheduled between mid-2026 and late 2027. Moreover, current plans call for an additional five nuclear units to enter refurbishment at the end of September 2026. This combination of ongoing and planned outages is likely to result in sustained high levels of gas power burn for the remainder of 2025 and for the balance of 2026 after allowing for seasonal swings.

WV’s First-Ever Gas-Fired Power Plant to Begin Construction - How many times over the years have we reported on (and cheerleaded for) gas-fired power plants to get built in West Virginia? MANY times. Dozens, maybe hundreds of posts about this topic. Yet, in all the time we’ve been writing MDN (since January 2009), not a single, solitary gas-fired power plant has been built in the Mountain State. Not one new plant! Until now. Energy investment firm Blackstone announced yesterday it has made a final investment decision (FID) to move forward with building the $1.2 billion Wolf Summit Energy Center power plant in Harrison County, WV.

N.C. Does a 180-Turn, Issues Water Permit for MVP Southgate - We continue to win so much, it feels strange. But hey, we can get used to it! Back in April 2021, we reported that the leftist Democrats who run the North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality (NCDEQ) had, for the third time, rejected giving the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) Southgate project a necessary Clean Water Act (CWA) Section 401 water quality certification permit (see NC DEQ Rejects Permit for MVP Southgate Pipe Third Time). The project went dormant after that, until the mainline MVP itself was built. After all, if there’s no MVP, there’s no need to build the Southgate extension. MVP finally finished building and went online in June 2024 (see Confirmed: M-U Gas Now Flowing Through Mountain Valley Pipeline). And now, the unthinkable (for the left) has happened: The NCDEQ issued a Section 401 permit to MVP Southgate, a 31-mile extension of MVP into North Carolina.

Crypto Co. Eyes Drilling Conventional Gas Well in NC Triassic Basin - Deep River Data, a company with connections to the cryptocurrency industry, wants to drill for natural gas in Lee County, North Carolina. However, production from the well would not be used to power crypto mining, but instead to fuel an AI data center. If approved, the project would be the first commercial well drilled into the Triassic Basin, a natural gas repository underlying North Carolina and other Eastern Seaboard states. The well that is planned is conventional, not shale, so it involves no (or very little) fracking.

U.S. Propane Inventories Stay Elevated with Gulf Coast Stocks Pushing Higher - The EIA reported a 691 Mbbl withdrawal in total U.S. propane/propylene inventories for the week ended November 7 — a larger draw than industry expectations for a 48 Mbbl pull but smaller than the typical seasonal draw of 921 Mbbl. Total stocks stood at 105.4 MMbbl, 7% above both the same week in 2024 and the 5-year maximum, and 16% above the 5-year average. Overall, inventories remain firmly on the high side of historical norms. PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) propane inventories increased by 148 Mbbl, pushing regional stocks to 63.3 MMbbl — the third consecutive week of record highs since our recordkeeping began in 2011. Inventories were 7.2 MMbbl, or 13%, above both 2024 levels and the 5-year maximum. It’s an unusually comfortable starting point as the heating season ramps up. Weekly propane exports reported by the EIA averaged about 1.9 MMb/d, a decrease of 35 Mb/d from the previous week. Export levels were above the four-week average of 1.86 MMb/d and also exceeded the 1.8 MMb/d reported during the same week last year. The continued strength in exports points to steady international demand heading into the winter season.

PHMSA Investigates Leaking Ethane from Cove Point LNG Tanks -- Marcellus Drilling News - - Federal safety officials are investigating leaks of ethane near two small underground storage tanks at the Cove Point LNG export terminal in Maryland and have requested that they be taken out of service immediately, citing potential safety concerns. The cause of the leak appears to be related to the tanks or their piping. However, Cove Point LNG, a facility owned and operated by a Berkshire Hathaway Energy subsidiary, maintains that the 40-gallon tanks are “safe to operate under the current conditions” and that the leaks have never posed an unsafe condition for employees or the community. The Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) issued a proposed safety order in mid-October, and the company has requested an informal consultation to discuss it.

U.S. Feed Gas Deliveries Shatter Record, Push Global Natural Gas Prices Lower — LNG Recap - U.S. feed gas deliveries to LNG export terminals hit yet another record over the weekend, continuing a relentless charge higher that has added to global supplies and kept a lid on international natural gas prices. North America LNG Export Flow Tracker showing daily U.S. LNG export deliveries from Nov. 1–10, 2025, with volumes ranging between 16.95 and 18.86 million Dth. The chart highlights top U.S. LNG terminals including Corpus Christi, Freeport, Golden Pass, Calcasieu Pass, Cameron, Plaquemines, Sabine Pass, Elba Island, and Cove Point, alongside inactive listings for LNG Canada and Mexico’s Energia Costa Azul. Total U.S. LNG export deliveries on Nov. 10 reached 18.53 million Dth, down 92,703 Dth from the previous day. Map inset marks key LNG sites across the Gulf Coast and East Coast. At A Glance:
U.S. feed gas deliveries hit 18.2 Bcf/d
35 domestic cargoes loaded last week
More deals signed to sell U.S. LNG

U.S. LNG Feed Gas Hits Record as Winter Demand Tightens Supply — The Offtake - A look at the global natural gas and LNG markets by the numbers

• 18.2 Bcf/d: Flows of LNG feed gas demand to U.S. terminals has reached new highs in November as commissioning projects and winter demand swell exports. Feed gas nominations reached 18.2 Bcf/d on Nov. 12, according to NGI calculations. Feed gas demand has averaged around 17.5 Bcf/d since the beginning of November as the final block of trains at Venture Global Inc.’s Plaquemines LNG continue commissioning.
• 2 Mt/y: Shell plc has asked the New York Supreme Court to overturn a decision by an international tribunal in its arbitration case against Venture Global. In August, a tribunal panel sided in favor of the developer of the Calcause Pass LNG terminal, concluding the company abided by the terms of the 20-year, 2 million tons/year (Mt/y) agreement with Shell. However, a similar panel decided in favor of BP plc in October. In a court filing, Shell lawyers claimed that Venture Global withheld information to the tribunal that influenced the decision.
• $11.6 billion: Germany’s Securing Energy for Europe GmbH (SEFE) plans to end a legacy contract to export 2.9 Mt/y of Russian LNG by 2027. The contract to take cargoes from Yamal LNG, valued at around $11.6 billion, was originally planned to end in 2040. In October, European Union member countries approved a measure to accelerate the bloc’s ban on Russian LNG to the beginning of 2027.
• 18 Mt/y: A holding company of the Haisla Nation has applied to take over the permits of an abandoned Canadian export project. The Kitimat LNG originally proposed by Chevron Corp. and Woodside Energy Group was previously designed with a nameplate capacity of up to 18 Mt/y from three trains before both companies walked away in 2021. The Haisla Nation currently holds a 50.1% stake in the Cedar LNG project currently under construction in British Columbia. '

US LNG producers ink near record contract volumes, even as fees climb (Reuters) - U.S. liquefied natural gas developers are on track this year to ink the second-highest annual number of binding sales contracts, despite industry concerns about increasing capacity and rising costs. In the first 10 months of 2025, U.S. LNG producers signed sales and purchase agreements (SPAs) for 29.5 million metric tonnes of LNG per year, more than four times the 7 mtpa signed in all of 2024, data from consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group shows.. The SPAs are used by project developers to raise financing by demonstrating that planned projects can generate positive cash flow with customers locked into contracts for as long as 20 years. The only time more binding agreements were signed by U.S. exporters was in 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, according to Rapidan Energy. Many buyers seeking to diversify away from Russian energy are willing to pay higher liquefaction fees that American LNG developers charge to convert natural gas into a liquid that can be easily transported around the world in specialized ships. Companies with LNG trading portfolios are also picking up volumes from American producers. President Donald Trump returned to office in January with a pro-oil and gas agenda. He has promoted LNG deals in trade talks with Europe, which agreed to buy $750 billion in energy from the U.S. His administration also lifted former President Joe Biden's moratorium on new export project approvals. A flurry of final investment decisions followed that will add new capacity totaling 61.5 mtpa of LNG to an existing export base of 120 million mtpa. Cheniere Energy, Venture Global, Sempra, Next Decade and Woodside Energy have all greenlit new facilities this year. The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects the country's overall LNG capacity to double by 2029. America could export one third of global LNG by 2030, according to the International Energy Agency. Rapid expansion of U.S. LNG could result in a global glut, with the IEA predicting lower prices. “As new supply comes to market, notably from the United States and Qatar, it should apply downward pressure on prices - offering welcome relief for gas importers worldwide,” said IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security Keisuke Sadamori. Similar forecasts of lower LNG prices have come from producers including Total and Shell, yet some investors in new export facilities like Woodside and Venture Global say predictions of a glut are overstated. "We're very bullish on LNG demand for the long term," Woodside CEO Meg O'Neill said at an event in September. Venture Global CEO Mike Sabel predicts demand growth as data centers and more Asian countries replace coal with LNG for electricity generation. "I think data centers are going to be a massive source of new incremental demand, but you are short today on gas production capacity," Sabel told Reuters. Labor inflation caused by shortages of skilled workers and rising prices of equipment due to tariffs are increasing construction costs, according to Poten and Partners business intelligence head Jason Feer. "Costs have increased up to 20% in some instances, and it makes some projects ... uncompetitive," TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné said on an earnings call last month. Venture Global has reported cost overruns at its 27.2 mtpa Plaquemines LNG facility, while Golden Pass, a joint venture between Exxon Mobil and QatarEnergy is over budget and behind schedule. To keep projects economically viable, developers have been seeking, and so far getting, liquefaction fees that are up around 15% on average from two years ago, Feer said. Venture Global, considered a low-cost supplier, is charging $2.30 per million British thermal unit (mmBtu) for liquefaction in new contracts. The fee is higher than the $1.75 per mmBtu it charged for LNG out of Calcasieu Pass when that facility first contracted sales, two people with knowledge of its pricing told Reuters. Cheniere Energy, the largest U.S. LNG producer, is charging a premium of over $2.75 per mmBtu. Woodside is offering 10-year contracts coming in at around $2.90 per mmBtu, said Feer, adding that fees across the broader market had averaged $2 per mmBtu in 2023. The window may be closing for more LNG projects to be developed in the U.S. at this time because of rising costs and the prospect of lower global prices, according to Rapidan Energy director of global gas Alex Munton. "This bull run must come to an end, it cannot continue forever," said Munton. Still, buyers including ENI and Petronasare snapping up new long-term contracts even in the face of higher liquefaction fees and potentially lower spot prices. JERA, one of Japan’s largest power generators, says it wants U.S. gas to diversify and avoid an over-dependence on Australia and to meet demand growth spurred by data centers and AI. TotalEnergies' Pouyanné said many large players are focusing on the bigger picture and locking in new volumes to trade, even if fees are rising. As the market grows, so do trading and arbitrage opportunities. Even some easing of the market could still create opportunities for more price sensitive countries in Southeast Asia to move away from coal and boost global demand for LNG, the IEA said.

IEA Rethinks Role of Natural Gas as Wave of New LNG Supply Poised to Reshape Demand -- The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted in its flagship World Energy Outlook that oil and natural gas demand would continue to grow until 2050 in a reversal from last year’s report as global policies and economies shift. Stacked column chart illustrating global LNG capacity under development from 2010 through 2035, segmented by contributions from the United States, Qatar, Australia, Canada and other countries, with 2025–2030 showing the largest growth. At A Glance:
Natural gas demand to grow 10–15%
Overall energy demand climbing
Geopolitical risks pose renewed supply threat

Can U.S. Energy’s New Direction Reshape Global Gas Flows? — Listen Now to NGI’s Hub & Flow -- Click here to tune in to the latest episode NGI’s Hub & Flow, in which NGI’s managing editor of Mexico, Christopher Lenton, speaks with Alex Munton, global gas and LNG research lead at Rapidan Energy Group. The conversation looks at how the U.S. natural gas industry has welcomed a more favorable policy environment. At the same time, Munton suggests rising costs are weighing on activity, making for a more complex dynamic for natural gas even as LNG projects boom. The two also discuss LNG ambitions in Mexico and Alaska amid financing and logistical challenges, reinforcing why Gulf Coast terminals now dominate. As affordability and energy costs become political flashpoints, Munton warns that high prices could reshape the energy landscape — and voter sentiment.

Shell Challenges Venture Global Arbitration Loss in NY Court -- Marcellus Drilling News - Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass (CP) LNG export facility in Louisiana began operations in March 2022 (see Calcasieu Pass LNG Loads Inaugural Cargo; Sabine Pass LNG Expands). Typically, a new LNG facility will load and ship several (maybe two or three) cargoes to “work out the kinks” and ensure everything is working as advertised. Venture Global, using loopholes in its signed contracts, maintained that they were working out the kinks long after it began shipping. After hundreds of cargoes were shipped, CP’s customers were still not receiving their contracted (at lower prices) shipments. Shell, along with several other customers, sued (see Shell, Edison, BP File for Arbitration Against Venture Global LNG). Shell lost its arbitration case, but two months later, BP won its arbitration case. Shell is now appealing the rejected case.

Energy Transfer seeks equity partners for Lake Charles facility - Energy Transfer seeks equity partners for Lake Charles facility Energy Transfer will not move ahead with a final investment decision (FID) for its Lake Charles LNG facility until at least 80% of the project has been sold to equity partners, the US pipeline operator stated in a post-earnings call Reuters reported on November 5. The Louisiana-based facility will possess a production capacity of 16.5mn tonnes per year (tpy). Moreover, the export terminal has secured long-term offtake deals for most of its supply. But amid rising project costs, the US midstream company is seeking further financial assurances before the greenlight can be given for the plant to be built in Cameron Parish. “Our projects need to meet certain risk-return criteria, and we're not there yet on LNG,” co-CEO Tom Long told reporters. “We are hoping that these equity partners will step up by the end of the year and get us to where we want this kind of risk profile, in the space we want this project,” Long added. Energy Transfer has secured MidOcean Energy, which is backed by investment firm EIG, as an equity partner. A non-binding contract was signed in April with MidOcean committing to cover 30% of the construction costs in return for 5mn tonnes per year (tpy) of LNG supply. Chevron has also signed an offtake deal, agreeing to purchase 2mn tpy, while Kyushu Electric Power has also committed to purchase 1mn tpy. Energy Transfer has been targeting to take FID by the end of the year, but with a lack of equity partners this timeline may need to be pushed back. Hesitancy by Energy Transfer over a lack of equity partners comes at a time when construction costs have been soaring for LNG facilities in North America. Inflationary pressures, particularly the rising wages of skilled labour in the Gulf Coast region have led to massive cost overruns for a number of LNG facilities, including ExxonMobil and QatarEnergy’s Golden Pass LNG, as well as Venture Global’s Plaquemines facility. Rising construction costs for LNG export terminals are not limited to the Gulf Coast. Woodfibre LNG, located in the western Canadian province of British Columbia has also grappled with soaring construction costs at the halfway mark of building.

Energy Transfer Taps the Brakes on Lake Charles LNG Export FID- Marcellus Drilling News - In April, we told you that Energy Transfer’s (ET) Lake Charles LNG project had landed a new partner to help pay for the project, MidOcean Energy, which will cover 30% of the cost of building the plant (see MidOcean Partners with Energy Transfer on Lake Charles LNG Exports). Not long after that news, ET filed a request with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to add an extra three years to the permit to complete the facility’s construction and bring it online. FERC responded in the affirmative in May (see FERC Grants Request to Extend Lake Charles LNG Construction by 3 Yrs). The Department of Energy (DOE) issued its blessing for the delayed timeline three months later, in August (see DOE Gives Lake Charles LNG Until December 2031 to Begin Exporting). However, ET is tapping the brakes on a final investment decision (FID) until 80% of the project has been sold to equity partners.

Energy Transfer Expands Permian Gas Network as Data Center Demand Surges -- Energy Transfer LP (ET) is continuing to build out Permian Basin processing capacity and storage as it locks in a bevy of supply agreements with data centers and utilities seeking reliable Texas natural gas. Map showing Energy Transfer’s Desert Southwest pipeline expansion, highlighting Transwestern Pipeline routes from the Permian Basin at Waha into Arizona near Phoenix, along with Energy Transfer interstate and intrastate pipeline networks across Texas, New Mexico and the broader Southwest.
At A Glance:
ET eyes 1 Bcf/d in data center supply
Management discloses deals with Oracle
Lake Charles FID hinges on equity sales

South Texas Dorado Positions EOG for Next LNG Wave- Multi-basin exploration and production (E&P) firm EOG Resources Inc. is bullish on natural gas based on the growing LNG pipeline, but management is maintaining discipline as it builds a plan for 2026, CEO Ezra Yacob said in a third quarter earnings call. Line chart comparing NGI forward natural gas price curves for Henry Hub, Waha, SoCal Border Avg., Houston Ship Channel, and Cove Point from late 2025 through 2027. Cove Point shows sharp seasonal spikes above $6.00/MMBtu, while Waha trends negative at times and other U.S. hubs remain near flat to slightly positive, highlighting regional spreads tied to future LNG export demand. At A Glance:
Natural gas output tops prior guidance
LNG, power demand boost EOG strategy
Utica acquisition expands gas footprint

Is the U.S. LNG Market Getting Too Crowded? — Listen Now to NGI’s Hub & Flow -- Click here to listen to the latest episode of NGI’s Hub & Flow, in which NGI’s Jamison Cocklin, managing editor of LNG, sits down with Poten & Partners’ Jason Feer, global head of business intelligence, to discuss how rapid North American LNG export growth could slow down projects still in the development phase. They explore whether potential project delays could slow an expected LNG supply glut later in the decade, as well as how long oversupply could affect the natural gas market. Cocklin and Feer also discuss implications of the supply glut on U.S. natural gas prices and on global benchmarks, and how foreign offtakers could react to shifting prices.In the wake of six U.S. LNG projects having reached final investment decisions in 2025, they also delve into the viability of financing additional projects.

US natgas futures extend rally to eight-month high on bets of fresh December cold, firm power demand - U.S. natural gas futures rose 5% on Tuesday, extending gains to an eight-month high, as traders bet on another round of cold weather in December and firmer power demand, even as temperatures are expected to moderate next week. Front-month gas futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 22.7 cents, or 5.2%, to settle at $4.565 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). The contract climbed to its highest level since March. "The market is expecting another blast of cold in December, and that's keeping sentiment bullish despite the brief warm-up ahead," He added that expectations for stronger power demand in the coming weeks were also helping support prices. The recent rally has kept the front-month contract in technically overbought territory for a ninth straight session. Analysts said any prolonged moderation in temperatures could slow momentum, but traders are watching forecasts closely to see what comes after the current warm-up. "Besides the cold weather, a recent record pace of export activity has added to recent bullish sentiment. But we can also indicate a strong pace of production that has provided significant mitigation against the rising exports," In the cash market, meanwhile, average prices at the Waha Hub in the Permian shale basin in West Texas remained in negative territory for a sixth session in a row as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the nation's biggest oil-producing basin. Meanwhile, Shell has challenged its defeat in an arbitration case against U.S. liquefied natural gas producer Venture Global in the New York Supreme Court, a legal filing seen by Reuters shows, weeks after rival BP won a similar $1 billion-plus arbitration. Dutch and British power prices traded in a narrow range on Tuesday morning as mild weather keeps heating demand subdued and amid strong supply from Norway and liquefied natural gas (LNG). The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants has risen to 17.8 bcfd so far in November, up from a record 16.7 bcfd in October, and those flows are on track to increase further in coming months. Financial firm LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would jump to 118.6 bcfd this week from 108.6 bcfd last week on colder weather, before easing to 114.7 bcfd as temperatures moderate. LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states has risen to 109.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, up from 107.0 bcfd in October and a record monthly high of 108.0 bcfd in August. LSEG estimated 228 heating degree days (HDDs) over the next two weeks, compared with 246 estimated on Monday. HDDs, which measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is below 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius), are used to estimate demand to heat homes and businesses.

Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices Poised to Ramp as Demand Mounts, EIA Says - Natural spot gas prices at benchmark Henry Hub could rally into the winter months and through 2026 amid strengthening domestic demand and steadily climbing calls for U.S. LNG exports, according to the latest federal outlook.U.S. natural gas prices remain relatively stable compared with sharp seasonal swings in residential rates, which are projected to rise again this winter, according to NGI and EIA data. At A Glance:
EIA sees Henry Hub at $3.90 in winter
Agency expects $4.00 average for 2026
Futures set new highs on frigid weather

US natgas scales highest level since March on stronger LNG exports, cold December outlook - U.S. natural gas futures rose to their highest level since March on Thursday, supported by stronger liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and forecasts for colder-than-normal weather in December. Front-month gas futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled 11.3 cents, or 2.5%, higher at $4.646 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). The contract hit its highest level since March 10 earlier in the session. "The LNG export market is acting as a strong demand driver," The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants has risen to 17.8 bcfd in November, up from a record 16.7 bcfd in October, and those flows are on track to increase further in coming months as Venture Global's Plaquemines plant in Louisiana and Cheniere Energy's Corpus Christi plant in Texas continue to ramp up production, according to LSEG data. By December, according to some projections, it is going to get colder than normal. Financial company LSEG expects average gas demand across the Lower 48 U.S. states, including exports, to rise to 119.2 bcfd this week from 108.6 bcfd the previous week. LSEG estimated 253 heating degree days (HDDs) over the next two weeks, slightly higher than the 228 estimated on Tuesday. HDDs, which measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is below 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius), are used to estimate demand to heat homes and businesses. LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states has risen to 109.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, up from 107.0 bcfd in October and a record monthly high of 108.0 bcfd in August. Record output this year has allowed energy companies to inject more gas into storage than usual. There was about 4% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. Meanwhile, ADNOC Gas reported an 8% rise in its third-quarter net profit to $1.34 billion on Thursday, its highest ever for the period, as strong domestic demand and improved margins offset a weaker oil price environment. Elsewhere, Dutch and British gas prices were slightly down on Thursday, trading in a narrow range amid weak demand due to warm weather, which is expected to become colder over the coming week.

Natural gas prices hit highest level since invasion of Ukraine - Wall Street Journal -- The onset of cold weather and record-breaking Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) exports have driven U.S. natural-gas prices to their highest levels since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. This surge, with December futures hitting $4.646 per million British thermal units—up 67% from a year ago—benefits U.S. drillers who suffered from a supply glut last year. However, these higher costs threaten to increase heating bills for the roughly 61 million American homes warmed by natural gas, plus the many more powered by gas-generated electricity. The rise is largely attributed to a sustained, record pace of LNG export activity, primarily to European allies, which is more than offsetting the near-record domestic production pace, despite ample storage levels heading into the winter.

Analyst Warns NatGas Is 'Nearing Price-Inelastic Portion of Curve' | Rigzone - In an EBW Analytics Group report sent to Rigzone by the EBW team on Wednesday, Eli Rubin, an energy analyst at the company, warned that natural gas is “nearing [the] price-inelastic portion of [the] curve”. “Yesterday’s session spanned a wide and volatile 30.5 cent intraday trading range en-route to a $4.565 December contract close - a four-month high,” Rubin said in the report. “This is near the bottom of the price-inelastic portion of the curve where price increases hold less sway over short-term supply or demand, opening the door to substantial further volatility and price increases,” he warned. Rubin stated in the report that today’s spot market action may prove pivotal as demand falls more than 13 billion cubic feet per day from Tuesday to Saturday. “If Henry Hub spot prices relent from Monday’s seven-month high at $3.79 (spot markets did not trade on Veteran’s Day), it may join with the Relative Strength Index nearing technically overbought conditions to yield consolidation,” he said. The EBW energy analyst went on to note in the report that the long-term outlook for natural gas “is structurally bullish”, adding that “early December could be cold”. “Near-term pullbacks have been shallower - and shorter - than record high production and market indifference to winter supply adequacy concerns suggest,” he said. “While short-term consolidation is likely, NYMEX winter contracts rest at the base of a hockey stick curve and could snap steeply higher at any point,” he continued. EBW’s latest report outlined that Tuesday’s December natural gas contract close of $4.565 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) was up 22.7 cents, or 5.2 percent, from Monday’s close. The report highlighted that EBW’s prediction for the NYMEX front-month natural gas contract price was “relent and restrengthen” over the next 7-10 days and a “jagged path higher” over the next 30-45 days. In an EBW report sent to Rigzone on Tuesday by the EBW team, Rubin warned that natural gas momentum showed “signs of softening”. “The December natural gas contract rose to test key resistance at $4.509 yesterday [Monday], only to return 24.7 cents before stabilizing in the low $4.30s/MMBtu,” Rubin said in that report. “Henry Hub spot prices reached $3.79 - but the end of the current cold spell implies relenting physical demand to refocus traders on a well-supplied November market,” he added. In that report, Rubin highlighted that “weather forecasts shed seven HDDs [heating degree days] for Weeks 2 and 3 in a moderating pattern for natural gas”. “Week 2 will be milder than Week 1, and even a modest injection cannot be ruled out. Collectively, mild weather, record production, storage above 3,925 Bcf, and softening technical momentum are likely to challenge recent upside,” he said. Rubin went on to state in the report, however, that “long-term fundamentals are robust, weekly average LNG set another record high, and elevated chances for a cold December may limit downside”. “Any signs of December cold creeping into the forecast could reignite bullish momentum - although current forecasts indicate cold is most likely after Thanksgiving,” he added. That EBW report highlighted that the December natural gas contract closed at $4.338 per MMBtu on Monday. That closing price was up 2.3 cents, or 0.5 percent, from Friday’s close, the report outlined. This EBW report also highlighted that EBW’s prediction for the NYMEX front-month natural gas contract price was “relent and restrengthen” over the next 7-10 days and a “jagged path higher” over the next 30-45 days.

LNG Prices Will Drop in 2026 to Absorb Supply Surge, But by How Much?: Russell - The liquefied natural gas market is bracing for a surge in supply next year, largely from top exporter the United States, but what is less certain is just how low spot prices will have to drop to clear the additional volumes. Global supply of the super-chilled fuel is expected to rise to 475 million metric tons in 2026, according to data from commodity analysts at Kpler, a 10.2% gain over the 431 million tons forecast for 2025. To put this figure in context, the expected increase in supply is equivalent to the total annual demand of South Korea, the world’s third-biggest LNG importer behind China and Japan. The bulk of the increase in LNG supply comes from the United States, with Kpler’s principal LNG analyst Go Katayama telling a seminar in Sydney on Thursday that U.S. capacity will rise to 130 million tons next year. This is up from 90 million tons in 2024 and an expected 110 million this year. Such a jump in supply is likely to weigh on prices, with Kpler forecasting that benchmark Asian spot prices will average $10 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in 2026, down from about $12 in 2025. That doesn’t seem overly bearish, but within an average price forecast for a calendar year there can be quite some movement on a week-by-week basis. For instance, it’s likely that demand during the upcoming northern winter will keep the spot price around its current $11.10 per mmBtu, with the risk that a colder-than-usual season will push the price higher. This means the spot price will start 2026 well above the $10 average forecast for the whole year, giving it scope to drop throughout the year. If all 44 million tons of forecast new LNG supply does eventuate and hit the market, much of it will come in the second half of 2026. This makes it likely that spot prices will be weaker in the second half as the market struggles to absorb additional supply. The question is who is likely to buy the new LNG, much of which is uncontracted and thus available for spot transactions. China’s weak LNG imports this year may well reverse amid stronger residential and trucking demand, with Kpler expecting imports to rise 8 million tons to 75 million in 2026. Other potential bright spots for LNG demand are India and Southeast Asian nations such as Thailand and the Philippines. However, these countries can largely be described as price-sensitive buyers, and it would likely take a drop to below $8 per mmBtu to drive them to take significant volumes. Europe’s LNG demand may also increase as the continent continues to walk away from Russian pipeline natural gas, but growth may be more modest as renewables increase their share of the region’s energy mix. Whether the new volume of LNG hitting the market in 2026 will be enough to drive the spot price as low as $8 is debatable, but a further wave of supply in 2027 could be enough to rout prices. Qatar, which vies with Australia as the second-biggest LNG producer, is advancing work to boost its output from 77 million tons to 126 million by 2027. QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi said last week the Middle East producer is on track to start up new production from its massive North Field by the middle of next year, with the fourth quarter being the latest it would commence. The LNG market is heading for a situation where supply additions are running ahead of demand growth. This is leading to a market consensus that spot prices are likely to drop on a sustained basis, which will help boost demand in Asia. But for any lift in demand to be sustained, prices will have to remain depressed, a situation that is likely to curb future investment in new LNG capacity.

Chevron sees oil prices under ‘more pressure’ than LNG next year - Chevron CEO Mike Wirth predicts that increased oil supply from OPEC+ nations will continue to pressure crude prices next year, making 2026 prices likely to feel more pressure than LNG. Following its correct prediction of this year’s oil price drop, Chevron unveiled a five-year plan prioritizing profitability over production growth through 2030, aiming for 14% annual free cash flow growth with $70/barrel crude. While Chevron expects strong global demand for liquefied natural gas, Wirth anticipates lower LNG spot prices at the end of the 2020s due to a supply surge from the Gulf Coast and Middle East, potentially exceeding demand.

USA shale operators defy $60 oil to keep increasing output -- US shale producers, including Exxon Mobil, Diamondback Energy, and Coterra Energy, are moving forward with plans to increase output, despite oil prices near the $60 mark, setting the stage for a record global supply glut next year. This resilience stems from years of technological advancements in drilling and pumping, which have significantly enhanced efficiency and lowered break-even costs for producers, such as Diamondback’s dropping to about $37 a barrel. Exxon is leading the charge with a major increase in its 2025 production guidance, driven by new fracking techniques. Analysts suggest that given current incentives, oil prices will likely need to fall into the low $50-a-barrel range before the market forces US producers to curb their continued growth.

Occidental Petroleum Cuts 2026 Spending As Oil Prices Weigh On US Producers - Occidental Petroleum plans to reduce its capital spending for 2026 while concentrating on its largest U.S. oilfields, aiming to maintain steady production despite ongoing pressure from lower global oil prices. The move underscores the company’s focus on financial discipline and operational efficiency. The company will trim its 2026 capital expenditure to a range of $6.3 billion to $6.7 billion, down from $7.1 billion to $7.3 billion in 2025. Most of the funding will go toward U.S. onshore projects, particularly in the Permian Basin, which allows Occidental flexibility if market conditions deteriorate further. Spending in the Gulf of Mexico and Oman will rise by $250 million, while investment in low-carbon initiatives will be temporarily scaled back. The approach reflects a balancing act between near-term production priorities and long-term sustainability goals. Brent crude has fallen nearly 13% this year, settling in the low $60s due to OPEC+ production increases and weakening global demand. Despite these challenges, Occidental anticipates maintaining or slightly increasing 2026 output by around 2%, supported by advanced unconventional drilling techniques in the Permian Basin. The company is also prioritizing debt reduction following major acquisitions. Shareholder returns remain a key focus, with plans for share buybacks and preferred share redemptions aimed at maintaining investor confidence amid market uncertainty. Occidental’s strategy mirrors a broader trend among U.S. oil producers, which are emphasizing capital discipline and financial health over aggressive expansion. As the energy sector navigates price volatility, technological innovation and strategic investment choices will likely define the industry’s resilience and long-term trajectory.

Increased New Mexico oil spill list identifies OKC firm - A new report by the environmental group, WildEarth Guardians, claims the number of oil and gas spills that occurred in the third quarter of the year in New Mexico soared 400%. It identified an Oklahoma company has one of the most frequent offenders. The group said four of the five largest spills happened at produced water “recycling” facilities, exposing the risks of reusing toxic fracking waste. WildEarth Guardians stated in its findings that Oklahoma City’s Devon Energy along with ExxonMobil’s XTO were among the top offenders. The Q3 2025 Waste Watch report documents 350 fluid spills between July 1 and September 30, including more than 2 million gallons of toxic waste “lost” to the environment, largely in the Permian Basin of southwest New Mexico. The findings confirm a dramatic escalation from both the Q1 and Q2 reports, which already showed steady increases in waste and wellsite mismanagement across state and federal lands. “Toxic spills exploded nearly 400 percent this quarter—mostly on public lands,” said Melissa Troutman, Climate & Health Advocate and lead author of the report. “Produced water ‘recycling’ sites are becoming major polluters. Large contaminant ponds used for storage and treatment of produced water lead to much bigger spills.” The report found that four of the five largest spills this quarter occurred at so-called produced-water “recycling” or reuse sites, where toxic wastewater is stored and treated for reuse in new drilling operations. The largest, on July 15, 2025, involved OXY USA’s Mesa Verde East site on federal public land, where equipment failure caused a spill of 1.6 million gallons of produced water and 126,000 gallons of crude oil, nearly all of which were lost to the environment. “These ‘recycling’ facilities are ground zero for contamination,” said Troutman. “They prove what we’ve been warning regulators: you can’t safely reuse or discharge toxic oil and gas waste without putting water, land, and communities at risk.” Over 60% of all spills occurred on federal lands, confirming that the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and EPA continue to fail in enforcement. The surge in spills comes as the New Mexico Water Quality Control Commission (WQCC) considers a controversial new rule that would allow the discharge of treated produced water into the environment — the very waste responsible for this quarter’s biggest contamination events.WildEarth Guardians and coalition partners previously won a strong discharge prohibition rule in May, which is now under appeal by industry. The current WQCC proceeding—backed by the Oil and Gas Association and “recycling” operators—seeks to roll back those protections.“This data is Exhibit A in why the WQCC must reject the proposed produced water discharge rule sponsored by industry,” said Rebecca Sobel, Climate & Health Director at WildEarth Guardians. “If companies can’t safely contain produced water at their own recycling facilities inside the oilfield, there’s no justification for allowing them to transport this waste offsite to dump into rivers or spread onto fields.” Across all three quarters of 2025, more than 7.6 million gallons of oil and gas wastes and other contaminants have been spilled in New Mexico — equivalent to over 1,200 tanker trucks of toxic material. Yet no major fines or penalties have been issued to repeat violators. Trade-secret loopholes continue to hide chemical identities, making cleanup, worker protection, and medical response far more difficult and dangerous.“The state’s produced-water ‘recycling’ experiment has turned public lands into toxic waste zones,” Sobel said. “Regulators have the authority—and obligation—to stop the next spill disaster before it happens.”

Western States, Tribal Nations Eye Pacific LNG Path for Rockies Natural Gas -- Members of the Western States and Tribal Nations (WSTN) Energy Initiative along with state officials are heralding the Rocky Mountains region as a potential cost-competitive source for LNG supply.
Line chart comparing NGI’s Henry Hub and Rocky Mountains regional average daily natural gas prices from November 2024 through November 2025. Both price trends rise sharply during February 2025 before stabilizing around $3.00/MMBtu through the remainder of the year. At A Glance:
Rockies gas potential estimated at 277 Tcf
Two LNG export routes identified
Asian demand drives regional ambitions

ARC Resources Reaffirms LNG Pricing Exposure and Connection to LNG Canada | RBN Energy -ARC Resources Ltd., one of Canada’s largest natural gas producers, reported its third quarter earnings on November 7, highlighting further developments for its Montney focused portfolio as well as providing an additional corporate update on its future LNG supply/pricing exposure and connection to LNG Canada.

• Although the company’s 150 MMcf/d supply agreement to LNG Canada via a contractual arrangement with Shell Canada, the operator of LNG Canada, has been known since early 2024, ARC’s latest corporate update provided clear confirmation that its Sunrise gas plant is now hard connected to the Coastal GasLink Pipeline that ships gas to LNG Canada (green and purple dashed lines in company slide below). The company has not yet made any mention as to whether gas has been flowing or not.
• Approximately 25% of planned natural gas production by 2029 will be flowing under contracts that increase the company’s exposure to international LNG prices. The 200 MMcf/d supply contribution to Cedar LNG (greed dashed rectangle in company slide below), located a short distance from LNG Canada, represents approximately one-half of the anticipated gas intake for the project. ARC is aligned with several other large natural gas producers such as Tourmaline Oil Corp. and Canadian Natural Resources that have been diversifying their natural gas price exposure away from Western Canada toward international LNG price markers.
• The company confirmed that output of natural gas (~360 MMcf/d) at its Sunrise project in the British Columbia Montney was curtailed for a majority of Q3 2025 due to low natural gas prices, with production restored as of late October. Gas plant flow data for August and September confirm the reduction with September recording zero volume through the plant. The return of production in late October, along with increased output from many other producers, recently sent Western Canadian natural gas production to a record high in early November (see our Analyst Insight of November 5).

Pembina Forges Ahead with Pipeline/Fractionator Expansions and LNG Marketing -Pembina Pipeline Corporation, one of Canada’s largest midstream companies, announced its Q3 2025 earnings on November 6 which incorporated a raft of updates for its suite of pipeline and fractionator expansions to take on Western Canada’s expected NGL growth over the next several years. The company also advanced a key LNG marketing arrangement as part of its commitment to the under-construction Cedar LNG project at Kitimat, BC. Key announcements included:

• Construction of its new 55 Mb/d propane-plus (C3+) Redwater Fractionator (RFS IV) is 75% complete and remains on track to begin operations in Q2 2026. The start up of this unit will bring fractionation capacity at the Redwater complex to ~256 Mb/d (which includes 60 Mb/d of C2 ethane fractionation capacity at the RFS I and RFS II units).
• Pipeline expansion announcements included:
  • Fox Creek-to-Namao: 70 Mb/d expansion that is part of the company’s larger Peace Pipeline system to increase NGL shipment capacity from West Central Alberta to the Namao hub near the Redwater fractionation complex. A final investment decision (FID) is expected by the end of 2025.
  • Taylor-to-Gordondale: a new pipeline to link NGL production growth in the British Columbia Montney into the Peace Pipeline and is intended transport up to 118 Mb/d of condensate (field condensate) from Taylor, BC to a connection with the Peace Pipeline near Gordondale, AB. On November 7, the Canada Energy Regulator (CER) recommended approval for the project to the federal Governor-in-Council with a decision expected by early 2026. The company is contemplating FID in 2026.
  • Birch-to-Taylor: a pipeline proposal to increase throughput capacity from Birch, BC to Taylor, BC to accommodate anticipated NGL growth from the Montney and would ostensibly be connected to the Taylor-to-Gordondale expansion. FID is anticipated in 2026.
• Pembina announced on November 5 that it had entered into a 20-year contractual agreement to supply 1 million tonnes per annum (MMtpa) of LNG to Petronas from the under-construction Cedar LNG project. This marks the first step in Pembina’s remarketing of its 20-year 1.5 MMtpa tolling and liquefaction agreement that it entered in June 2024 to bring about a positive final investment decision for the construction of Cedar LNG. The company reported that it expects to reach definitive agreements for the remarketing of the remaining 0.5 MMtpa of capacity by the end of 2025. Cedar LNG is a 3.3 MMtpa (~400 MMcf/d) liquefaction plant under construction as part of a 49.9%(Pembina)/50.1% (Haisla) joint venture with the Haisla First Nation with a planned in-service of late 2028.
• The Greenlight Electricity Centre, a 50/50 partnership with Kineticor, made additional progress. As proposed, the project is working toward the construction of up to 1,800 MW of natural gas-fired combined-cycle power generation that would be tied to future data centres in Sturgeon County, AB. An agreement has been signed for the delivery of two turbines with a total generation capacity of 900 MW for the first phase of the project. FID is anticipated in the first half of 2026 with an in-service date targeting 2030.
• The company’s Alliance pipeline will launch a binding open season for a new point-to-point service agreement for up to 350 MMcf/d of gas from a point in northwest Alberta to Fort Saskatchewan, AB. Pembina suggests that agreement could be tied to gas delivery for the Greenlight Electricity Centre. Although not explicitly mentioned by Pembina, the agreement may involve capacity commitments to ATCO’s proposed 1.1 Bcf/d Yellowhead Pipeline that would ship gas from northwest Alberta to Fort Saskatchewan.

Alberta’s September Crude Oil Production Slips, But More Gains Year-on-Year | RBN Energy -Alberta’s crude oil output in September 2025 slipped to 4.22 MMb/d (height of stacked columns inside dashed rectangle in chart below), a record for the month, a small loss of 0.02 MMb/d versus August and 0.39 MMb/d greater than a year ago. The small monthly decline was driven by a small reduction in output of synthetic crude oil (red columns) to 1.31 MMb/d, a loss of 0.05 MMb/d versus August. Some offset was provided by an increase in non-upgraded bitumen (green columns) of 0.04 MMb/d to 2.26 MMb/d, just short of the record 2.31 MMb/d set in July, with other production categories largely unchanged month-on-month. Year-on-year production gains remained focused in non-upgraded bitumen (green columns inside dashed rectangle in chart above), with the September increase versus a year ago registering at 0.27 MMb/d and the year-to-date gain computing as 0.12 MMb/d. Expansion work is ongoing at numerous bitumen production sites with major players such as Cenovus, Imperial Oil, Suncor and Canadian Natural Resources all highlighting various project upgrades in recent quarterly conference calls that will ensure additional growth into the end of this year and in 2026-27. Year-to-date average oil production stands at a record 4.09 MMb/d, ahead of 2024’s full-year average of 3.98 MMb/d. RBN is expecting that Alberta’s average oil output in 2025 will rise 0.16 MMb/d to 4.14 MMb/d as expansion work continues in the oil sands, primarily related to the production of non-upgraded bitumen.

Waterborne Crude Oil Exports from Trans Mountain Fall in October, But Exports to China Hit Record -Waterborne crude oil exports from the expanded Trans Mountain Pipeline (TMX) averaged 421 Mb/d in October 2025 (rightmost stacked columns in chart below), a drop of 51 Mb/d versus a revised September level of 472 Mb/d and an increase of 6 Mb/d from a year ago, based on tanker tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. October’s exports marked the first month-on-month decline since June. Export upside may materialize in November with media stories suggesting that tanker export bookings off TMX have increased in response to favorable pricing opportunities versus other overseas crude streams and wider sanctions on exports of Russian crude oil in an attempt to target importing countries such as China. China (red columns) held its position as the largest purchaser of Canadian crude oil for the tenth consecutive month and a record level with October’s exports pegged at 342 Mb/d, 42 Mb/d higher than September’s revised level of 300 Mb/d, and 116 Mb/d higher than a year ago. A distant second in the month were exports to the United States (blue columns), landing at 79 Mb/d, a significant drop of 93 Mb/d versus September and 92 Mb/d less than one year ago. The sharp drop may have been a result of turnarounds at California refineries during the month, as well as the winding down of crude imports on the pending closures of Phillips 66’s Los Angeles refinery at the end of this year and Valero’s Benecia refinery in April 2026. Both have been regular importers of crude from TMX. No other countries were reported by Bloomberg as destinations for Canadian crude from TMX in October. China’s imports have been exclusively geared to heavy oil consisting of Access Western Blend (AWB), a sour, higher acid blend of diluted bitumen (grey columns in chart below), and Cold Lake Blend (teal columns), another sour diluted bitumen closer to Western Canadian Select (WCS), Western Canada’s benchmark heavy oil, with lower acid and sulfur content than AWB. Exports to China of AWB were a record 292 Mb/d in October, up from 264 Mb/d in September and zero a year ago. In contrast, Cold Lake exports in October tallied just 34 Mb/d, down from 36 Mb/d in September, and a huge drop from 226 Mb/d one year ago. New refineries and growing experience in handling the higher sour and acid content of Canadian barrels have shifted China’s focus to AWB for both logistical and economic reasons.

Lower 48 LNG Flows to Europe Expand Under Venture Global, Kinetik Contracts - European natural gas buyers have locked in more long-term U.S. LNG supply under a pair of deals aimed at increasing energy security. At A Glance:
Greek company locks in 0.5 Mt/y
Ineos to sell 0.5 Mt/y to Kinetik
TTF cools to $10.60 range

TC Energy Bets on Rising Mexico Natural Gas Imports, Power Expansion - Executives at Canadian midstream giant TC Energy Corp. were bullish about natural gas demand in Mexico during their third quarter earnings call. Map showing Southeast Mexico’s natural gas infrastructure, including operational and proposed pipelines, gas processing plants, LNG export projects, and key hubs such as Villahermosa, Coatzacoalcos, Mérida, and Veracruz. The map highlights NGI’s Mexico gas price index points, the Lakach natural gas field, and the under-construction Southeast Gateway Pipeline. At A Glance:
Mexico imports hit record 8 Bcf/d
Southeast Gateway pipeline to ramp
Power buildout drives new gas capacity

IEA predicts increase in oil and gas consumption by 2050 -- The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) World Energy Outlook predicts an increase in oil and gas consumption through 2050, with the US set to remain the world’s largest producer. The IEA projected that oil demand could reach around 113 million barrels per day (mbbl/d) by mid-century, an increase of roughly 13% from 2024 consumption. The agency also predicted that global liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity could expand to roughly 1.02 trillion cubic metres. Total final consumption increases in the current policies scenario (CPS) by around 1.3% each year over the next decade, according to the IEA. Global energy demand is forecasted to increase by approximately 90 exajoules by 2035. IEA restored the current policies framework for the first time since 2019 after finding insufficient 2031–35 national climate plans to form a pledges-based pathway. The agency said that its scenarios explore a range of possible outcomes under various sets of assumptions and are not forecasts. In the stated policies scenario, which includes proposed but not yet adopted measures, oil demand peaks around 2030. The report noted final investment decisions in 2025 will bring online around 300 billion cubic metres (bcm) of new annual LNG export capacity by 2030. This represents an increase in global LNG volumes from around 560bcm in 2024 to 880bcm in 2035 and 1,020bcm by 2050. IEA predicted a rise in power-sector demand from data centres and AI. It projects global investment in data centres at $580bn in 2025. The outlook identifies electric vehicle (EV) adoption rates as a key variable. Under the CPS, EV market share broadly plateaus after 2035, supporting higher oil consumption to mid-century. In the stated policies scenario, EV sales double by 2030 and exceed 50% of new car sales around 2035. The IEA also outlines a net-zero scenario that requires the deployment of emissions reductions and carbon removal technologies to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. IEA executive director Fatih Birol said: “When we look at the history of the energy world in recent decades, there is no other time when energy security tensions have applied to so many fuels and technologies at once – a situation that calls for the same spirit and focus that governments showed when they created the IEA after the 1973 oil shock. “With energy security front and centre for many governments, their responses need to consider the synergies and trade-offs that can arise with other policy goals – on affordability, access, competitiveness and climate change. “The World Energy Outlook’s scenarios illustrate the key decision points that lie ahead and, together, provide a framework for evidence-based, data-driven discussion over the way forward.” The IEA, funded by member countries, with the US as the largest contributor, has faced pressure from the US to shift focus towards clean energy, reported Reuters. Last month, the IEA projected an estimated surplus in the global oil market for 2026 of up to 4mbbl/d.

EIA Raises US Oil Output Forecast, Says Oversupply Will Weigh on Prices - (Reuters) – U.S. oil production is expected to set a larger record this year than previously forecast, even as global oil supply outpaces fuel demand, the Energy Information Administration said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook report on Wednesday. The Department of Energy’s statistical arm expects U.S. oil output to average 13.6 million barrels per day both this year and in 2026, up from its prior forecast of 13.5 million bpd in both years. The agency said the revision was due to higher than expected output in August. Get the Latest US Focused Energy News Delivered to You! It's FREE: Quick Sign-Up Here Oil output averaged 13.2 bpd last year, which was the prior record. Global oil inventories will rise through 2026 as global oil production is growing faster than demand for petroleum fuels, the EIA said, expecting it to pressure crude oil prices. Tarco | Delivering Engineered Solutions Oil prices will fall through the end of 2025 and to average $55 per barrel in 2026, the EIA said. Petroleum fuel prices will fall as the price of oil comes down. U.S. gasoline prices is expected to fall to an average of $3 per gallon in next year, down 10% from 2024, and diesel prices will drop to $3.5 per gallon in 2026, down 7% from 2024, the EIA said. The price of crude oil accounts for roughly half the price of gasoline and diesel. The EIA forecasts the price of crude oil to account for a 43% share of the price of gasoline and 36% of the price of diesel in 2026.

Europe's LNG Demand Surge Flips Global Gas Market -- Asia has been the driver of global demand for liquefied natural gas for years now, with its fast-growing economies guzzling energy at elevated rates. This year, however, has seen this change. Asian demand for LNG is weakening—but Europe’s is on a substantial rise, more than offsetting Asia’s weakness, despite plans to reduce consumption of all hydrocarbons. LNG imports to Asia last month stood at 22.84 million tons, Kpler data, cited by Reuters’ Clyde Russell, showed. This was a slight increase from September but palpably lower than October 2024, when imports hit 24.39 million tons. Over the first ten months of the year, Asia’s imports of liquefied gas were down by over 14 million tons on the year to 225.8 million tons. Russell suggests China was one driver of this trend, booking year-on-year LNG import declines every month since November 2024. Yet while Asian energy importers curbed their purchases of liquefied gas, European buyers stepped up their orders. The Kpler data shows that over the first ten months of the year, Europe imported 101.38 million tons of the fuel. This was 16.75 million tons more than what Europe imported a year earlier—even as the EU leadership boasted about permanently reducing the bloc’s consumption of natural gas, not just from Russia but in general. It was this increase in European LNG purchases that likely affected demand for the superchilled fuel in Asia. Despite growing at a faster clip than Europe overall, Asian economies are more price-sensitive in energy imports. A surge in demand for LNG from Europe regularly prices out poorer Asian importers, although an argument could be made that Europe is finding it increasingly hard to pay its own energy import bills as it stretches itself thin to fund an energy transition away from oil and gas, and an accelerated buildout of military capabilities that requires cheap energy to be successful. Europe, in other words, has emerged as a hotspot for LNG demand, drawing the attention of producers. However, this attention is not homogeneous. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright, for instance, has repeatedly called on Europe to stop importing Russian energy altogether and boost its purchases of U.S. LNG. Indeed, the European Commission’s president Ursula von der Leyen signed a trade deal with President Trump, committing to a massive increase in such purchases. Yet one of the largest LNG exporters in the world, Exxon, has warned it may have to stop doing business with the EU unless it axes new legislation that aims to force international companies to track their emissions and human rights record across their supply chains.Exxon, moreover, is not the only one threatening to quit Europe if it goes ahead with the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive. Qatar, the world’s number-two in LNG exports, is also going to stop selling gas to Europe if it tries to force QatarEnergy to track and reduce its emissions, and monitor human rights protection, or risk getting fined 5% of its annual global revenues.Meanwhile, as the EU buys ever more LNG—including from Russia—one energy-focused energy transition advocacy outlet warned the bloc should not saddle itself with long-term LNG purchase commitments, because demand for gas in Europe was about to shed a quarter over the next 25 years.“European countries risk over-relying on one supplier if they commit to long-term US LNG contracts. The US supplied more than half (57%) of Europe’s LNG imports in H1 2025, as deliveries from the country reached a new high,” the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis reported earlier this month, noting that Germany and Greece had topped the single-supplier list, sourcing a respective 94% and 84% of their LNG from the United States over the first half of the year.Yet the IEEFA believes this acceleration in LNG purchases this year is a temporary glitch while demand dynamics point to a weakening in the future. The reason: more wind and solar. This has been the go-to argument of the pro-transition lobby, even though evidence suggests the record buildout of wind and solar generation has done little to change the energy consumption makeup of the European energy system outside certain seasonal output peaks. Germany, for instance, was recently revealed to have booked the highest rate of power generation from natural gas power plants due to weak winds for most of the year.While the IEEFA and other transition outlets predict gas demand destruction in Europe, they also predict a glut of LNG due to excess capacity. Yet cheaper LNG is likely to only push demand higher across more importing countries as the commodity becomes more affordable for everyone. With the weather unlikely to become more predictable in the future, chances are that reliance on natural gas will continue strong in both Europe and Asia, regardless of transition ambitions.

Naftogaz Secures Greek, Polish Partnerships to Import US LNG --Ukraine's state-owned Naftogaz Group has signed separate agreements with Poland's state-owned ORLEN SA and a new Greek company for the importation of liquefied natural gas (LNG) produced in the United States into Ukraine and other European countries. Naftogaz and Atlantic-See LNG Trade SA, formed last week by Greece's Aktor Group and DEPA Commercial SMSA, "agreed to jointly develop the supply of LNG from the U.S. to Europe and Ukraine through Greek LNG terminals and the Vertical Corridor", Naftogaz said in a statement on its website. "This long-term partnership extends through 2050 and will enable the phased implementation of new strategic projects: ensuring stable long-term LNG supplies for Ukraine; integrating Ukraine’s infrastructure into Europe’s LNG logistics routes; creating a sustainable system for the storage and supply of U.S. LNG". Concurrently gas transmission system operators (TSOs) that are part of the Vertical Corridor, a network of existing gas infrastructure allowing the multidirectional flow of gas across seven European countries, signed a joint letter requesting that regulators in Bulgaria, Greece, Moldova, Romania and Ukraine approve more flows via two routes. "TSOs request the regulators’ approval on the availability of Routes 2 and 3 until April 2026; and the possibility of simultaneous provision of Route 1, Route 2 and Route 3 special capacity products in competing auctions", said a statement posted on DESFA's website. "All participating TSOs have agreed to apply significant discounts - ranging from 25 percent to 50 percent across their interconnection points, to encourage market use of the new capacity and facilitate diversified gas flows. The coordinated tariff reductions and the availability of multiple route options will help mitigate potential disruptions, support uninterrupted deliveries to Ukraine, and ensure the most efficient use of existing infrastructure across the region.

U.S. outpaces Russia by 75% in natural gas output, EIA finds - The United States remains the world’s largest natural gas producer, outpacing Russia by 75% in 2023, according to a new analysis from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Trend reports. The report notes that U.S. production reached 104 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) last year, marking a record high and underscoring the country’s position as a dominant global supplier. The United States has maintained this leadership since 2009. In the first half of 2025, U.S. output climbed even further, averaging 106 Bcf/d. Three major regions—the Appalachia, Permian, and Haynesville - rank among the world’s top 10 natural gas-producing areas when compared individually with other countries. The Appalachia region, which includes the Marcellus and Utica shale plays, produced 33 Bcf/d in 2023, making it the second-largest gas-producing area globally. Output has remained steady through the first half of 2025. In the Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico, production increased from 21 Bcf/d in 2023 to 25 Bcf/d in early 2025, ranking the region fifth worldwide. Meanwhile, production in the Haynesville region - spanning Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas - slipped slightly from 15 Bcf/d to 14 Bcf/d during the same period. According to the EIA, the sustained growth of U.S. natural gas production continues to reshape global energy markets and strengthen the country’s role as a key supplier in the evolving energy landscape.

Iran reports sharp rise in household gas consumption - Iran is experiencing a major rise in daily gas consumption as more households and businesses turn up their heating to cope with an early cold spell. Figures released on Sunday by the Iranian Oil Ministry’s news service Shana showed that the country’s gas use had reached 695.9 million cubic meters (mcm) per day on Friday. The figures showed that households and businesses were responsible for more than 54% of the total gas consumption in Iran. The local branch of the National Iranian Gas Company in Tehran province, which includes the capital, said on Sunday that gas use in the province had hit 57 million cubic meters in the past 24 hours, up 67% from the same period last week. The figures come amid a sharp drop in temperatures in Tehran and other cities in Iran. However, the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), which controls the country’s gas fields in the south, said it is fully prepared to cope with a sudden rise in demand for natural gas. NIOC CEO Hamid Bovard was in the gas production hub of Assaluyeh, in southern Iran, on Sunday to assess the readiness of refineries and transmission facilities for the winter season. “Thanks to the planning we’ve done based on last year’s experience, we’re entering this winter with better preparation and coordination,” Bovard said. The official, who also serves as a deputy oil minister, said that Iran's improved management of gas demand would allow it to ease some of the restrictions typically imposed on industries during the colder months. Iran is the world's fourth-largest consumer of natural gas, after the US, Russia, and China, with a peak demand that reaches nearly 900 million cubic meters per day on some cold winter days. NIGC figures show household demand for gas reached peaks of nearly 600 million mcm last year.

IEA: Oil and gas demand to rise through 2050, climate goals at risk | IranOilGas Network - The International Energy Agency (IEA) now projects that global oil and gas demand will continue rising until 2050, marking a shift from its earlier forecasts of a rapid clean energy transition. In its World Energy Outlook 2025, the IEA’s “current policies” scenario—based on existing, not aspirational, climate policies—foresees oil demand reaching 113 million barrels per day by 2050, a 13% increase from 2024. The agency predicts total energy demand will grow 15% by 2035, largely driven by expanding data centers and AI-related power use. LNG capacity is set to surge 50% by 2030, reaching over 1,000 bcm annually by 2050. The IEA dropped its “pledges scenario” this year, citing insufficient national climate plans for 2031–2035. It also warns that global temperatures are on track to exceed the 1.5°C target from the Paris Agreement, unless large-scale carbon removal technologies are deployed.

Russian Oil Production Rises in October, Still Below OPEC+ Limits - In October, crude oil production in the Russian Federation increased to an average of 9.41 million barrels per day, which is 43,000 barrels more compared to September. However, even with this increase, the production volume remained 70,000 barrels below the established OPEC+ quota, which also requires compliance with obligations related to compensatory cuts due to previous excesses over the limits. The Russian oil sector continues to face pressure from the international community. In particular, new U.S. sanctions targeting the largest oil companies in Russia, as well as the increase in Ukrainian drone attacks on the aggressor’s energy infrastructure, significantly complicate the industry’s operations. If Moscow is unable to find new buyers for sanctioned companies or quickly restore damaged refining capacities, the aggressor country may be forced to suspend production at certain fields. This threatens to damage wells and could lead to a long-term reduction in the country’s production capabilities.According to reports, Australia, despite officially halting direct purchases of energy resources from Russia, has received over 3 million tons of oil products from Russia through third countries since 2023 due to the imperfections in the sanctions mechanisms. In effect, this provides additional support to Russian oil production and fills the Kremlin’s budget.In turn, the Japanese Ministry of Economy noted that even after the introduction of new U.S. sanctions against Rosneft, foreign participation projects, such as Sakhalin-1, remain critically important for the country’s energy security. The new U.S. restrictions on Russia will take effect on November 21: after this date, all operations with Rosneft and Lukoil must be ceased.The situation in the Indian market is also changing. Indian state-owned refineries have begun purchasing crude oil from the U.S. and Middle Eastern countries instead of Russian oil. Specifically, two enterprises acquired 5 million barrels of oil on the spot market, including American WTI oil, Murban from Abu Dhabi, and Basra Medium.

US Sanctions Push Indian Refiners Away From Russian Crude - All but two Indian refiners have skipped placing orders for Russian crude for December after the U.S. sanctioned Russia’s top oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, sources with knowledge of the purchases told Bloomberg on Tuesday. India’s refiners, which have come to rely on cheap Russian crude in the past three years, have withdrawn from the December purchasing window which typically closes by November 10. Five large refiners, including state-owned Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL), Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL), and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL), and private firms Reliance Industries Ltd and HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd, have not requested any Russian crude for December. Combined, these five firms have imported two-thirds of all Russian crude oil into India year to date, according to Kpler data cited by Bloomberg. Only India’s biggest state-held refiner, Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), and Nayara Energy, in which Rosneft holds 49%, have purchased crude from Russia for December, per Bloomberg’s sources. At the end of October, following the U.S. sanctions on Russia, IOC acquired five December-arriving cargoes of Russian crude from non-sanctioned sellers. IOC has bought about 3.5 million barrels of Russia’s ESPO crude at about the same price as the Dubai quotes for delivery at an eastern Indian port in December, a trade sources told Reuters, without naming the sellers of the Russian oil. IOC has vowed that it would fully comply with international sanctions related to crude oil imports from Russia.

Middle Eastern Oil Producers Boost Crude Supplies to India | Egypt Oil & Gas -Middle Eastern oil producers, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait, will increase crude oil shipments to India in December. This strategic move allows the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) members to reclaim market share as Indian refiners pivot from Russian supplies due to tightening Western sanctions.The shift follows a pause in purchases from Russia by many Indian refiners after the United States (US), the European Union (EU), and the United Kingdom (UK) imposed fresh sanctions on top Russian producers, including Rosneft and Lukoil, last month. The sanctions disrupted typical trade flows, prompting buyers in the world’s third-largest oil consumer and importer to seek alternative suppliers.Indian refiners have received full crude allocations from Saudi Arabia and Iraq for December, in line with their requests. Furthermore, one refiner is slated to receive a higher monthly supply from Iraq’s State Organization for Marketing of Oil (SOMO) compared to November, while Saudi Aramco has similarly raised deliveries to another Indian refiner. Kuwait Petroleum (KPC) is also ramping up supplies to Indian buyers in November and December.The increase in supply is supported by the reduction of official selling prices (OSPs) by both Saudi Aramco and SOMO, making Middle Eastern crude more financially attractive to Indian buyers. This ample oil availability has allowed Indian refiners to expand spot purchases from the Middle East, Iraq, and the US to secure steady fuel supplies. Saudi Aramco declined to comment, while SOMO did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Russian Seaborne Oil Exports Drop to 3-Month Low Amid New U.S. Sanctions -Russia’s seaborne oil shipments fell to a three-month low last week as Moscow rushed to reroute shipments following U.S. sanctions on major Russian energy companies, the Kommersant business newspaper reported Friday, citing market analysts. The Center for Pricing Indices, a Russian export-pricing agency, said seaborne exports averaged around 320,000 metric tons per day in the week of Nov. 3-9, the lowest level since mid-July. Only 23 tankers reportedly left Russia that week compared to a typical 26-28. The drop came less than two weeks after the United States imposed sanctions on Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil. However, analysts at the agency say the slump in seaborne oil exports reflects a temporary dislocation in supply chains rather than a collapse in demand. The U.S. measures allowed shipowners to charge higher “risk premiums” for carrying Russian oil, especially on routes to Turkey, where authorities enforce compliance rules more strictly, according to The Center for Pricing Indices. Freight costs rose 3.7% week-on-week across most major routes. Despite higher costs, analysts at the agency said the market is not facing an acute tanker deficit and capacity remains sufficient to move current export volumes. The uptick in freight costs also comes amid Russia’s growing reliance on a so-called “shadow fleet” of tankers, or independent carriers that are less constrained by Western commercial and political pressures. India’s imports of Russian crude have remained steady despite the shipping route turmoil, with the 3.6 million metric tons supplied between Oct. 27 and Nov. 9 above average September-October levels. The Center for Pricing Indices forecasts that freight rates will continue strengthening through November as trading activity resumes under the new logistics setup. NEFT Research, a consultancy firm, expects shipping costs to end the month 10-15% higher than before the U.S. sanctions.

U.S. Sanctions Strand a Third of Russia’s Crude Exports at Sea - Nearly a third of Russia’s current seaborne oil export potential is now stuck in tankers as the U.S. sanctions upend crude flows and Russia’s top buyers, China and India, are still struggling to assess the implications of the sanctions, according to JPMorgan. “Russia’s oil exports are entering a new phase of disruption as sanctions targeting Rosneft and Lukoil are set to take effect, prompting its two largest customers — India and China — to sharply reduce their December purchases,” the Wall Street bank said in a note, as carried by Reuters.According to JPMorgan’s estimates, as many as 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude oil, or nearly a third of its exporting potential, are on tankers at present, amid re-routing and slowed unloading as buyers are hesitant following the U.S. sanctions on Russia’s top oil producers and exporters, Rosneft and Lukoil. Due to the sanctions, the discount of Russia’s flagship crude Urals to Brent has widened in recent days to the highest this year at $20 per barrel. As of Monday, Urals was priced $19.40 per barrel below Brent on a free-on-board (FOB) basis at the Russian Baltic Sea port of Primorsk and at the port of Novorossiysk on the Black Sea, widening from $13-$14 per barrel discount at the beginning of November, an industry source told Russian daily Kommersant earlier this week, citing data by Argus. All but two Indian refiners have skipped placing orders for Russian crude for December after the U.S. sanctioned Rosneft and Lukoil, sources with knowledge of the purchases told Bloomberg earlier this week. In China, major state-owned refiners have reportedly suspended purchases of Russian crude oil, but the independent refiners in the Shandong province, the so-called teapots, are unlikely to halt imports of the cheap crude that has become a staple for their refineries.

Oil Prices Climb as Senate Passes Deal to Reopen Government | OilPrice.com --In early Asian trade on Monday, crude oil prices were climbing after the United States Senate passed a funding agreement that could end the federal government shutdown. At the time of writing, WTI had climbed to $60.20 while Brent was trading at $64.05, both up by roughly 0.7%. Senate negotiators had struck a deal ahead of a Sunday evening session to begin advancing a House-passed continuing resolution. After nearly two hours, the funding measure passed with the support of eight Democrats.The package combines the continuing resolution with a “minibus” appropriations bundle (three long-term spending bills) and guarantees the Democrats a vote on extending health-insurance tax credits.From a market perspective, the expectation that roughly 800,000 unpaid federal workers will soon see their salaries returned, benefit programs will restart, and key government services will resume is boosting sentiment. Speaking to Reuters, IG market analyst Tony Sycamore argued that the reopening prospect “should also help improve risk sentiment across markets”.The optimism surrounding a deal can be seen on platforms such as Polymarket, which now has the odds of the shutdown ending before the 16th of November at 95%. Despite the rising confidence, a deal still faces some hurdles. After the Senate vote, approval by the United States House of Representatives needs to be secured, and the President will have to sign off before the longest government shutdown in history is brought to an end. For oil markets, a government reopening should lead to improved domestic U.S. demand for goods and services (including energy) and the return of halted government spending, which can bolster crude demand. Additionally, improved risk appetite tends to reduce safe-haven premiums and can shift funds into commodities like oil.

Oil Prices Hold Steady as Market Weighs U.S. Government Shutdown and Oversupply Concerns -- The oil market traded mostly sideways on Monday as it continued to trade within last Thursday’s trading range. The market weighed the expectations that the U.S. government shutdown would soon come to an end against the continuing concerns about an oversupply in the market. On Sunday, the U.S. Senate moved forward on a measure aimed at reopening the federal government and ending the 40-day shutdown that has sidelined federal workers, delayed food aid and impacted air travel. Analysts were concerned about any impact from flight cancellations on U.S. jet fuel demand. Airlines canceled more than 2,800 U.S. flights and delayed more than 10,200 flights on Sunday, the worst day for disruptions since the start of the shutdown. The crude market breached its previous high as it posted a high of $60.48 in overnight trading. However, it gave up its gains and sold off to a low of $59.41 by mid-day. The market later bounced off its low and settled in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session. The December WTI contract ended the session up 38 cents at $60.13 and the January Brent contract settled up 43 cents at $64.06. The product markets ended the session in positive territory, with the heating oil market settling up 2.83 cents at $2.5104 and the RB market settling up 3.08 cents at $1.9711. The Kremlin said it wanted the Ukraine war to end as soon as possible but that efforts to resolve it had stalled. IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 500,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending November 14th, increasing available refining capacity by 303,000 bpd from the previous week. Two Indian state refiners have purchased 5 million barrels of crude oil from spot markets via tenders as they continue to scout for alternatives to Russian supplies. Hindustan Petroleum Corp bought 2 million barrels each of U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude and Abu Dhabi’s Murban crude for January arrival. Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd bought one million barrels of Basra Medium crude for January 1st-7th delivery. Indian refiners are scouting for alternatives after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil in an attempt to pressure President Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine. Sources stated that Lukoil has declared force majeure at Iraq’s giant West Qurna-2 oilfield after Western sanctions on the Russian oil major affected its operations. Iraq has since halted all cash and crude payments to the company. Lukoil sent a letter to Iraq’s oil ministry last Tuesday saying there are force majeure conditions preventing it from continuing normal operations at the West Qurna-2 field. A senior Iraqi oil industry official said that if the reasons behind the force majeure are not resolved within six months, Lukoil will shut production and exit the project entirely.

Oil settles higher as tight fuel markets offset crude supply concerns (Reuters) - Oil prices settled higher on Monday as analysts focused on potential fuel supply disruptions from fresh U.S. sanctions and Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries, although predictions of a crude supply surplus kept gains in check. Brent crude futures rose 43 cents, or 0.7%, to settle at $64.06 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures advanced 38 cents, or 0.6%, to close at $60.13 a barrel. Fuel futures led gains in the oil complex as U.S. gasoline futures closed over 1% higher and diesel futures rose close to 1%. A string of refinery issues in the U.S. and drone strikes on Russian refineries have helped lift fuel prices, analysts said. "Refinery issues in the Great Lakes and West Coast have kept prices elevated," He added that thousands of U.S. flight cancellations due to the federal government shutdown could also create more gasoline demand ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. Airlines canceled more than 2,800 U.S. flights and delayed more than 10,200 on Sunday in the worst day for disruptions since the start of the shutdown. In Russia, oil major Lukoil's Volgograd refinery halted operations last Thursday after it was struck by Ukrainian drones, three sources familiar with the matter said on Thursday. On Monday, Russian forces destroyed four drone boats near the country's Black Sea port of Tuapse, a local task force said. Lukoil also declared force majeure at Iraq's giant West Qurna-2 oilfield, four sources with knowledge of the matter said on Monday, after Western sanctions on the Russian oil major hampered its operations. Lukoil's operations faced mounting disruptions as a U.S. deadline for companies to cut off business with the Russian company looms on November 21 and after an agreement to sell the operations to Swiss trader Gunvor collapsed. The oil market is split between rising volumes of crude stored at sea weighing on oil prices and limited availability of Russian refined products sustaining fuel prices, The volume of oil stored aboard ships in Asian waters has doubled in recent weeks after tightening Western sanctions curtailed imports into China and India, and onshore inventories were also on the rise in the U.S.. Both crude oil benchmarks fell about 2% last week, their second consecutive weekly decline, on expectations that crude oil supply will exceed demand in the months ahead due to higher OPEC+ production and record U.S. output. This month, OPEC+, or the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers, agreed to increase output slightly in December. While the group also paused further hikes in the first quarter, that may not limit supplies enough to support prices. "Even with the prospect of reduced Russian supply and the 1Q26 freeze on OPEC+ production quotas, the global crude oil market may run a smaller supply/demand surplus rather than a more supportive deficit," Evans said.Oil prices were also supported by investors' increasing willingness to hold so-called risk assets as signs emerged of progress towards ending the U.S. government shutdown. The U.S. Senate moved forward on Sunday on a measure aimed at reopening the federal government and ending the shutdown that has sidelined federal workers, delayed food aid and snarled air travel. U.S. lawmakers' first step toward ending the shutdown boosted investors' risk appetite, PVM's Varga said.

Oil Prices Fall Amid Concerns Over Supply Glut and Sanctions on Russia - Oil prices declined in Asian trading on Tuesday, as concerns over excess supply outweighed uncertainty about the impact of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil, despite optimism over progress toward reopening the U.S. government. Brent crude futures fell by 27 cents, or 0.4%, to $63.79 per barrel by 07:17 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 27 cents, or 0.5%, to $59.86 per barrel. Both benchmarks had gained about 40 cents in the previous session. The longest government shutdown in U.S. history is expected to end this week after the Senate approved a deal to fund the federal government, which will now go to the House of Representatives. House Speaker Mike Johnson expressed hope to pass it by Wednesday. While progress toward reopening the government has supported markets generally, concerns about crude oversupply continue to weigh on oil prices. "With OPEC production continuing to rise, global oil balances are tilting increasingly negative on the supply side, while demand continues to slow amid sluggish economic growth in major oil-consuming countries." Earlier this month, the OPEC+ alliance approved a 137,000 barrels per day production increase for December, maintaining the same level as in October and November, and agreed not to raise output further in the first quarter of next year. Although the supply glut from rising OPEC output has prompted investors to adopt more pessimistic positions in recent weeks, U.S. sanctions remain a focal point. Analysts at ANZ noted that President Donald Trump’s recent measures targeting Rosneft and Lukoil add further market uncertainty. Reuters reported Monday that Lukoil declared force majeure at one oil field in Iraq, while Bulgaria is preparing to seize Lukoil’s Burgas refinery, marking the most direct impact yet from last month’s sanctions. Oil inventories on ships in Asian waters have also doubled in recent weeks, as strict Western sanctions reduced exports to China and India, while import quota restrictions limited demand from independent Chinese refineries. Some refineries in China and India have turned to buying oil from the Middle East and other regions. "One potential challenge to the current bearish outlook for oil is whether China will continue to channel Russian supplies into its strategic reserves, and whether India will respond to Trump’s pressures by delaying further purchases from Russia."

Traders Assess the Impact of U.S. Sanctions on Russian Oil - The crude market continued to trend higher on Tuesday as traders assess the impact of the U.S. sanctions on Russian oil, with Lukoil declaring force majeure at an Iraqi oilfield it operates on Monday. Also, optimism that the U.S. government shutdown could this week after the Senate approved a compromise that would restore federal funding is increasing demand expectations. The oil market traded mostly sideways in overnight trading, posting a low of $59.66. However, the market bounced off its low and breached its previous highs and retraced more than 62% of its move from high of $62.59 to a low of $58.83 as it rallied to a high of $61.28 by mid-day. The market later erased some of its gains and traded sideways during the remainder of the session. The December WTI contract settled up 91 cents at $61.04 and the January Brent contract settled up $1.10 at $65.16. The product markets ended the session sharply higher, with the heating oil market settling up 6.53 cents at $2.5757 and the RBOB market settling up 4.09 cents at $2.0120. Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least 7 days rose +11% w/w to 95.18 million bbls in the week ended November 7. According to Kpler, EU-27 and UK diesel and gasoil imports reached about 772,000 bpd from November 1st-11th, compared with a one-year high of 1.17 million bpd in October. According to traders and LSEG data, Russia has maintained a steady pace of oil shipments from its sea ports at the start of November despite new U.S. sanctions imposed on the country’s largest oil companies. Traders said exports are proceeding according to schedule in various directions, with tankers from the so-called shadow fleet and vessels flying Russian flags continuing to participate in shipments. They said many vessels loading at Russia’s western ports, Primorsk, Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk, list Port Said or the Suez Canal as their destination, but later continue on to Asian ports, mainly India and China. Supplies of Urals crude to India are continuing for now, with cargoes sold before the latest Western sanctions still arriving. Traders expect stable shipments to continue at least until November 21st, the deadline set by Washington for transactions with sanctioned Rosneft and Lukoil. Volumes are expected to start declining from late November, with December shipments set to fall further. Traders expect that unsold oil may eventually be shipped to China, with Russian oil being sold in Asia at the deepest discounts in the past year. Average estimates put November transshipment of Urals, Siberian Light and KEBCO grades in Primorsk, Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk at about 2.3 million bpd, compared with around 2.4 million bpd in October, including volumes rolling over from September. Sources at three Indian refiners said both Saudi Arabia and Iraq have allocated full term crude volumes to Indian refiners for December, while also offering more under optional contracts. Increasing demand from Indian suppliers for Middle East crude came after they paused Russian oil buying due to tightening Western sanctions.

Oil up as investors balance sanctions risks, oversupply worries (Reuters) - Oil prices gained about $1 on Tuesday on the impact of the latest U.S. sanctions on Russian oil and the optimism over a potential end to the U.S. government shutdown, although oversupply concerns limited gains. Brent crude futures settled $1.10, or 1.72%, higher to $65.16 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 91 cents, or 1.51%, to settle at $61.04 a barrel. Investors continued to assess the fallout from the U.S. sanctions on Russia, and their impact on both crude oil and refined fuel markets. Russia's Lukoil declared force majeure at an Iraqi oilfield it operates, sources told Reuters on Monday, marking the biggest fallout yet from the sanctions imposed last month. Restricted fuel exports due to the sanctions are propping up oil prices in the face of a crude oil glut, PVM analyst Tamas Varga said. "Fresh U.S. sanctions on major Russian oil producers and exporters are weighing on product exports," Varga said. As a result, heating oil and gasoline are moving in a different direction from crude. Middle Eastern producers Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait will raise crude oil supplies to India in December as Indian refiners seek alternatives to Russian barrels, sources at four Indian refiners said on Tuesday. The markets also saw support as the longest government shutdown in U.S. history could end this week after the Senate approved a compromise that would restore federal funding. "The optimism around the government reopening is increasing demand expectations," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst for Price Futures Group. The Republican-controlled House of Representatives is due to vote on the deal Wednesday afternoon. However, worries about crude oversupply are curbing price gains. Earlier this month, OPEC+ agreed to increase December output targets by 137,000 barrels per day, but also agreed to a pause in increases in the first quarter of next year. "The oil market is also facing a considerable oversupply in the coming year, which is why prices are likely to remain under pressure. The main cause of the oversupply is the significant expansion of supply by OPEC+," Commerzbank analysts said in a note. OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, has added 2 million bpd of output since April, and a willingness within the group to reverse voluntary production cuts further after the first quarter pause could add an extra 1 million bpd in the coming year, Commerzbank said.

Oil’s Fragile Balance: Supply Fears Meet China’s Strategic Buying - Crude oil prices edged lower in early Asian trade, pausing after three straight sessions of gains. The move reflects a fragile balance between technical correction and a deeper shift in sentiment as traders weigh the risk of oversupply against renewed strategic demand from China. Brent futures hovered near $82 a barrel, while WTI held close to $78, both slightly lower on the day after a modest rally earlier in the week. The underlying narrative remains one of divergence between fundamentals and positioning. On one side, the supply outlook is loosening as U.S. production stays near record levels above 13 million barrels per day, and non-OPEC supply continues to expand. Forecasts from the International Energy Agency point to a surplus in the first half of next year as global demand growth cools to around 1.1 million barrels per day. On the other side, China’s refineries have quietly increased crude imports for stockpiling, filling strategic reserves as prices stabilize. That buying has tempered the downside pressure, preventing a deeper correction despite the broader risk-off tone across commodities. Macro conditions have reinforced the cautious mood. The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains firm near 104, limiting gains for dollar-priced commodities. U.S. Treasury yields have steadied, with the 10-year holding at 4.40%, as markets await fresh inflation data that could guide the Federal Reserve’s rate path. A strong dollar, coupled with resilient yields, has historically capped rallies in oil by tightening global liquidity and raising the cost of imports for energy-intensive economies. Equity markets have reflected the same ambivalence. Energy stocks in the S&P 500 rose roughly 0.5% in the prior session, tracking higher oil futures, but gains faded in after-hours trading as crude softened. European majors like BP and Shell have also moved sideways this week, indicating that investors remain wary of committing capital amid conflicting supply-demand signals. In contrast, transportation and manufacturing sectors—sensitive to input costs—have welcomed the recent stabilization in fuel prices. The near-term base case is for consolidation. With Brent likely to trade in the $80–85 range over the next few weeks, markets will look to key triggers such as U.S. inventory data, OPEC+ output guidance, and China’s industrial activity readings. If inventories continue to build while refinery margins stay weak, the downside could extend toward $78 on WTI. The alternative scenario hinges on geopolitical or supply disruptions: renewed conflict risk in the Middle East or unplanned outages could push Brent back above $88, reigniting inflation concerns and prompting a short-term rotation into energy equities. For investors, the key takeaway is that oil remains range-bound but directionally fragile. The balance between ample supply and strategic restocking is temporary, and volatility could return as macro data clarifies global demand trends. Portfolio managers should treat any rally toward the upper end of the current range as an opportunity to rebalance rather than chase momentum. A sustained breakout would require either clear evidence of demand recovery or a meaningful supply shock—conditions that remain absent for now.

Oil Prices Slide As OPEC Glut Fears Trump IEA's Demand Optimism -Oil prices are tumbling this morning, erasing yesterday's gain as OPEC and IEA unveiled their latest global supply/demand outlooks...OPEC flipped estimates for global oil markets in the third quarter from a deficit to a surplus, as US production exceeded expectations while the group itself ramped up supplies. Demand:

• The global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 remains at about 1.3mln BPD unchanged from last month’s assessment.
• In the OECD, oil demand s forecast to grow by about 0.1mln BPD in 2025 while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 1.2mln BPD.
• In 2026. global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.4mln BPD Y/Y, unchanged from last month's assessment.
• The OECD is forecast to grow by about 01mln BPD Y/Y. while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 1.2mln Y/Y.

Supply:

• Non-DoC liquids product on (i.e. liquids production from countries net participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) is forecast to grow by about 0.9mln BPD Y/Y in 2025 revised up slightly by around 0.1mln BPD from last month s assessment, mainly due to received historical data n 2025.
• The main growth drivers are expected to be the US. Brazil. Canada, and Argentina
• The non-DoC liquids product on growth forecast for 2025 remains at 0 6mln BPD Y/Y. with Brazil. Canada. US and Argentina as the main growth drivers.

The report published this morning also indicated that the OPEC+ alliance pumped more crude than it estimated was needed last quarter.Saudi Arabia has steered the coalition to fast-track the revival of halted supply this year in a bid to reclaim global market share.This month, key members showed their first signs of slowing that strategy, agreeing to pause further production increases during the first quarter of 2026.The organization cited a seasonal demand slowdown, though many analysts warn of a significant oversupply in global markets.Heading into 2026, OPEC’s data does indicate a surplus, though on a more moderate scale than other forecasters. The alliance would need to produce 42.6 million barrels a day during the first quarter to balance global demand, less than the 43 million it pumped in October. But, the International Energy Agency (IEA) leaned in hard in the demand side, stating that global demand for oil and gas will keep rising for the next 25 years unless governments change course, according to the Irish Times. In its latest World Energy Outlook, the Paris-based IEA warns that on the world’s current trajectory, fossil fuel use will continue to climb with “no meaningful fall in CO2 emissions.”The new Current Policies scenario reflects a shift in governments’ priorities toward energy security and affordability, a slowdown in electric vehicle growth, and a “declining” focus on climate action. “Climate change is declining – and declining rapidly – in the international energy policy agenda,” said IEA head Fatih Birol.Until this year, the IEA had assumed fossil fuel demand would peak this decade — a position fiercely opposed by the oil and gas industry and the White House. The agency denied that U.S. pressure prompted the change, noting that it consulted all member governments.In July, U.S. energy secretary Chris Wright called the IEA’s previous “peak oil” modelling “total nonsense,” adding that Washington might “reform the IEA or withdraw its support.” The U.S. provides 14 per cent of the agency’s budget.The Irish Times writes that major producers such as the U.S., Saudi Arabia, and the UAE argue the world still needs oil and gas to meet rising power demand from artificial intelligence and improving living standards.The Current Policies scenario assumes existing laws remain unchanged for 25 years. Oil demand grows from 100 million barrels a day in 2024 to 113 million by 2050, while EV sales plateau at about 40 per cent by 2035. The Stated Policies case — reflecting announced but not enacted measures — sees oil peaking at 102 million b/d by 2030, with half of all cars sold in 2035 being electric.Both scenarios show strong gas demand and a peak in coal use this decade. Electricity demand rises roughly 40 per cent by 2035, or 50 per cent under a more ambitious Net Zero path, with 80 per cent of growth in solar-rich regions.“For some people it is very optimistic, for some people it is very pessimistic,” Birol said. “We just put the scenarios on the table.”Clean energy advocates note that renewables dominate future power generation in every case. “Nearly all new electricity demand – driven by manufacturing growth, AI, cooling needs, and the shift to electric cars – will be supplied by renewable energy,” said Bruce Douglas of the Global Renewables Alliance.Finally, we thought it noteworthy that OPEC’s secretariat hailed this shift by its counterparts at the IEA, which before today had in recent years has predicted consumption will stop growing this decade

Oil prices fall as oversupply concerns overshadow US government reopening - - Oil prices fell more than $2 on Wednesday, weighed down by an OPEC report saying global oil supply will match demand in 2026, marking a further shift from its earlier projections of a supply deficit. Brent crude futures fell $2.15, or 3.3%, to $63.01 a barrel by 10:11 a.m. CST (1611 GMT) after gaining 1.7% on Tuesday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down $2.07, or 3.39%, at $58.97 a barrel, after climbing 1.5% in the previous session. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries noted that world oil supply would match demand next year due to the wider OPEC+ group’s production increases - a shift from its earlier projections of a supply deficit in 2026. “The prospect that the market is in balance is definitely what drove down prices,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group. “I think the market wants to believe it’s balanced. I think the market took OPEC more seriously than IEA.” The International Energy Agency, meanwhile, forecast in its annual World Energy Outlook on Wednesday that oil and gas demand could continue to grow until 2050. The projection was a departure from the IEA’s previous expectation that global oil demand would peak this decade, as the international body moved away from a forecasting method based on climate pledges back to one that takes into account only existing policies. “Due to a modest downward revision of oil demand and higher non-OPEC+ supply in 3Q, the OPEC secretariat now also predicts a surplus for 3Q. That said, it is still much smaller compared to EIA and IEA,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. Analysts have previously highlighted that crude oversupply is curbing price gains. OPEC+ agreed this month to a pause in increasing its output in the first quarter of next year, after having unwound its cuts to production since August this year. The reopening of the U.S. government, however, could boost consumer confidence and economic activity, spurring demand for crude oil, IG Market analyst Tony Sycamore wrote in a note. The U.S. Republican-controlled House of Representatives is set to vote later on Wednesday on a bill, already signed off by the Senate, that would restore funding to government agencies through January 30. The U.S. Energy Information Administration will release its outlook on Thursday.

World Oil Supply Will Match Demand Next Year Due to Production Increases - The oil market sold off sharply on Wednesday, pressured by an OPEC’s monthly report. OPEC said world oil supply will match demand next year due to the wider OPEC+ group’s production increases, marking a shift from its earlier projection of a supply deficit. The crude market posted a high of $61.06 on the opening and sold off throughout the session, falling further upon the release of OPEC’s monthly report. The market extended its losses to $2.74 as it sold off to a low of $58.30 ahead of the close. It retraced more than 62% of its move from a low of $55.96 to a high of $62.59. The December WTI contract settled down $2.55 at $58.49 and the January Brent contract settled down $2.45 at $62.71. The product markets ended the session lower, with the heating oil market settling down 9.41 cents at $2.4816 and the RB market settling down 5.66 cents at $1.9554. The U.S. Energy Department said it bought 900,000 barrels of crude oil for nearly $56 million. Trafigura Trading will supply 600,000 barrels, while Energy Transfer Crude Marketing will supply 300,000 barrels. The contracts awarded are for deliveries in December and January to the Bryan Mound site in Texas.The International Energy Agency said global oil and gas demand could grow until 2050, departing from its previous expectations of a speedy transition to cleaner fuels and predicting that the world will likely fail to achieve climate goals. In its annual World Energy Outlook, the IEA predicted under a current policies scenario that oil demand will reach 113 million bpd by mid-century, up around 13% from 2024 consumption.OPEC said world oil supply is expected to match demand next year in a reflection of the wider OPEC+ group’s production increases, marking a further shift from its earlier projections of a supply deficit in 2026. In its latest monthly report, OPEC said the world economy’s growth trend remained firm. Global demand growth in 2025 is forecast to remain unchanged at 1.3 million bpd. It also left its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 unchanged at 1.38 million bpd. It said that while demand is seen as steady, OPEC+ in October cut output by 73,000 bpd to 43.02 million bpd, despite the group’s output increase agreement for the month, led by a drop in Kazakhstan. OPEC forecast world demand for OPEC+ crude at 43.0 million bpd in 2026, down 100,000 bpd from a previous forecast. In its Short-Term Outlook, the EIA said U.S. oil production is expected to set a larger record this year than previously forecast, even as global oil supply outpaces fuel demand. The EIA expects U.S. oil output to average 13.6 million bpd both this year and in 2026, up from its previous forecast of 13.5 million bpd in both years. The agency said the revision was due to higher than expected output in August. Oil output averaged 13.2 bpd last year, which was the prior record. U.S. oil demand for 2025 and 2026 is forecast at 20.5 million bpd, unchanged from a previous forecast. World oil output in 2025 is forecast to total 106 million bpd, up from a previous forecast of 105.9 million bpd and output in 2026 is estimated to increase to 107.4 million bpd, up from a previous estimate of 107.2 million bpd. The EIA sees 2025 world oil demand at 104.1 million bpd, up from a previous forecast of 104 million bpd and demand in 2026 is seen at 105.2 million bpd, up from a previous forecast of 105.1 million bpd. The EIA said oil prices will fall through the end of 2025 and to average $55/barrel in 2026.

Oil Prices Dip Amid Rising US Inventories, OPEC Revises 2026 Forecast - Oil prices slipped on Thursday, continuing losses from the previous session, as reports of rising crude inventories in the United States heightened concerns that global supply is outpacing current fuel demand. Brent crude futures fell 9 cents, or 0.1%, to $62.62 a barrel by 04:36 AM WAT, following a 3.8% drop on Wednesday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined 11 cents, or 0.2%, to $58.38 a barrel, extending Wednesday’s 4.2% fall. Market sources, citing American Petroleum Institute (API) data, reported that U.S. crude stockpiles increased by 1.3 million barrels in the week ending November 7, while gasoline and distillate inventories declined. Prices had already dropped more than $2 a barrel on Wednesday after the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) forecasted that global oil supplies will slightly exceed demand in 2026, a reversal from its earlier projections of a deficit. The expected surplus is attributed to broader production increases by OPEC+, which includes OPEC members and allied producers such as Russia. Adding to market caution, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is set to release official inventory data later Thursday. In its Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA projected that U.S. oil production will hit record levels this year, surpassing previous estimates, and that global oil inventories will continue to rise through 2026 as production growth outpaces fuel demand. The combined reports have intensified bearish sentiment among investors, putting further downward pressure on oil prices.

WTI Holds Gains Despite Big Crude Build, New Record US Crude Production - Oil prices are bouncing modestly off of yesterday's ugly drop driven by OPEC+'s outlook for a sizable surplus (glut) ahead. The IEA also flagged a deteriorating outlook for a sixth consecutive month, saying in a report on Thursday that supply will exceed demand by just over four million barrels a day next year. “There’s a lot of oil supply that’s coming back from the OPEC+ countries,” Chevron Corp. Chief Executive Officer Mike Wirth told Bloomberg Television. “There’s a period of time when it would appear we’re going to see more supply coming into the market than demand will be able to absorb.” At the same time, Bloomberg reports that the Trump administration has moved to raise the pressure on Russia to end the war in Ukraine, including sanctions on Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC. An oil trading firm that’s a unit of Russian oil giant Lukoil is starting to terminate jobs with days to go until sanctions fully kick in. “The latest round of sanctions appear significant and there’s clear risk to supply,” Toril Bosoni, head of the oil markets division at the International Energy Agency, said in a Bloomberg TV interview. That, coupled with Ukraine attacks against Moscow’s energy infrastructure, has helped to support fuel prices and offer a support to oil markets otherwise weighed down by oversupply fears. Overnight, API reported a modest crude build. Quick reminder that this week’s data won’t include the effect of the US government shutdown on aviation and, therefore, jet fuel demand and inventories. That will come in next week’s data after airlines began curtailing flights on Nov. 7. API:

• Crude +1.3mm
• Cushing -43k
• Gasoline -1.4mm
• Distillates +944k

DOE

• Crude +6.413mm - biggest build since July
• Cushing -346k
• Gasoline -945k
• Distillates -637k

Crude inventories surged higher for the second week in a row (biggest build since July), modestly offset by small drawdowns for products (down for six straight weeks)...The last two weeks have lifted US crude stocks to their highest in five months, but we note on a seasonal basis, it continues to lag recent years... US Crude production surged by over 200k b/d last week to a new record high despite the ongoing slide in the rig count... WTI is holding on top its modest gains off yesterday's plunge lows for now... The bearish outlook for next year has triggered a key indicator - WTI’s prompt spread - to sink into contango... Graphics Source: Bloomberg

Crude Moves Up as Oversupply Pressures Persist - The oil market on Thursday retraced some of Wednesday’s sharp losses as the market weighed concerns about global oversupply and the sanctions against Russia’s Lukoil. The market remained pressured in overnight trading after OPEC on Wednesday said global oil supplies would slightly exceed demand in 2026. The IEA has also raised its global oil supply growth forecasts for this year and next in its monthly report, signaling a larger surplus in 2026. The crude market sold off to a low of $58.12 before it retraced some of its losses and traded to a high of $59.21 early in the morning. The market later gave up some of its gains ahead of the release of the EIA’s weekly petroleum stocks report and remained under pressure in light of the EIA showing a large build in crude stocks of over 6.4 million barrels. The December WTI contract settled up 20 cents at $58.69 and the January Brent contract settled up 30 cents at $63.01. The product markets ended the session in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling down 1.69 cents at $2.4647 and the RB market settling up 43 points at $1.9597. The EIA said U.S. gasoline stocks fell by 945,000 barrels to 205.1 million barrels in the week ending November 13th, the lowest level since November 2014. Gasoline stocks in the U.S. East Coast fell to a three-year low of 49.4 million barrels. The IEA raised its global oil supply growth forecasts for this year and next in its monthly oil market report, signaling a deeper surplus in 2026. The agency expects global oil supply to grow by around 3.1 million bpd in 2025 now and 2.5 million bpd next year, each up by around 100,000 bpd from its previous estimate. The IEA raised its 2025 world oil demand growth forecast to 790,000 bpd from a previous forecast of 710,000 bpd and its 2026 average oil demand growth forecast to 770,000 bpd, up from a previous forecast of 700,000 bpd. With supply outpacing demand, the IEA’s November report implies that in 2026 total oil supply will be 4.09 million bpd higher than total demand, up from an implied surplus of 3.97 million bpd in its last monthly report.JPMorgan said around 1.4 million bpd of Russian oil or almost a third of the country’s seaborne exporting potential, remain in tankers as unloading slows due to U.S. sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil. JPMorgan said with a cut-off date of November 21st for receiving oil supplied by the sanctioned companies, unloading cargoes could become significantly more challenging thereafter.Bloomberg reported that the world oil markets are oversupplied and it is most obvious in the Americas, especially the U.S. It noted the futures curve for WTI crude is in a contango structure, suggesting supply is exceeding demand for prompt barrels. Also, U.S. crude exports are high, with overseas crude shipments in October increasing to the highest level since July 2024. Goldman Sachs expects global oil demand to grow to 113 million bpd in 2040 from 103.5 million bpd in 2024, driven by increasing energy needs and ongoing challenges in low-carbon technology and infrastructure. It expects solid annual average demand growth of 900,000 bpd in 2025-2030 before slowing to 100,000 bpd by 2040.

Oil Prices Soar 2.75% After Ukraine Strike On Major Russian Export Hub | Oil prices jumped in early Asian trade on Friday morning as markets responded to renewed Ukrainian attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure. A Ukrainian drone attack on the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, one of the country’s most significant oil export hubs, triggered renewed fears of supply disruptions. At the time of writing, WTI had risen 2.71% to $60.28... While Brent was trading at $64.54. The attacks damaged a ship, nearby apartment buildings, and an oil depot, injuring three crew members aboard the vessel, Russian regional authoritiesconfirmed.Ukrainian forces have increasingly targeted Russian oil-refining, storage, and export infrastructure using drones and missiles. The campaign has gained intensity in recent months, with the Center for European Policy Analysis noting a shift in strategy “from smaller-scale strikes on storage tanks to targeting hard-to-replace refinery equipment, like cracking units, much of it western-made and subject to sanctions.”If Ukraine continues to press its deep-strike campaign and Russia faces rolling or compounding infrastructure losses, the supply risk to global oil markets could rise meaningfully.Russian oil supply is being further suppressed byrenewed U.S. sanctions, most notably new restrictions on Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil, effective Nov. 21, prohibiting transactions with the companies as Washington increases pressure on Moscow. The broader oil market outlook, however, remains bearish, with U.S. crude inventories rising and multiplewarnings of a severe glut in 2026.

Ukrainian attack halts oil exports from Russia's Novo, affecting 2% of global supply, sources say (Reuters) - Russia's Black Sea port of Novorossiysk temporarily suspended oil exports - equivalent to 2.2 million barrels per day, or 2% of global supply - on Friday, according to industry sources, after a Ukrainian missile and drone attack. The attack was one of the biggest on Russian oil-exporting infrastructure in recent months. It follows a ramping-up of Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries since August, part of an attempt by Kyiv to degrade Moscow's ability to finance its war. Global oil prices rallied by more than 2% on supply fears after the attack. Long-range Ukrainian air and sea drone strikes have repeatedly disrupted Russian oil infrastructure this year, targeting Baltic and Black Sea ports, a trunk pipeline system, and a number of oil refineries. Ukraine's General Staff said its forces had fired Neptune cruise missiles and used various types of strike drones in the attack on Novorossiysk "as part of efforts to reduce the military and economic potential of the Russian aggressor". Ukraine said it separately struck an oil refinery in Russia's Saratov region and a fuel storage facility in nearby Engels overnight. Russian pipeline oil monopoly Transneft has also been forced to suspend supplies to the port of Novorossiysk, the sources told Reuters. The company declined to comment. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which exports oil from Kazakhstan through the neighbouring Yuzhnaya Ozereevka terminal, suspended oil loadings for a few hours and then resumed them when the air alert was lifted, sources said. It plans to export 1.45 million barrels per day this month from the Yuzhnaya Ozereevka terminal, around 15 kilometres (9 miles) southwest of Novorossiysk. Debris from the drones fell on the terrain of Russian grain terminal NKHP, which was working normally, Interfax news agency reported, citing director general Yury Medvedev. Russian officials said Friday's attack had also damaged a docked ship, apartment buildings and an oil depot in Novorossiysk, injuring three of the vessel's crew members. Aftermath of a drone attack in Novorossiysk Delo, a transport and logistics group, said drone debris had fallen onto a container terminal in Novorossiysk, but that its operations continued as usual. British maritime security company Ambrey said a crane sustained damage, and so did several containers. It said a non-sanctioned container ship alongside the terminal suffered some collateral damage, while no crew members were injured as they sheltered in a safe muster point within the vessel. ' Russian crude oil shipments via Novorossiysk's Sheskharis terminal totalled 3.22 million tonnes, or 761,000 barrels a day, in October, according to industry sources. For the first 10 months of the year, the figure was 24.716 million tonnes. The sources told Reuters that a total of 1.794 million tonnes of oil products had been exported through Novorossiysk in October and oil product exports for January-October totalled 16.783 million tonnes. According to three industry sources, the Ukrainian attack hit two oil berths at Sheskharis. The damage was inflicted on berth 1 and berth 1A, which handle 40,000-deadweight-ton and 140,000-deadweight-ton tankers respectively. Two of the sources said the Sierra Leone-flagged Arlan oil tanker was also hit during the attack. . "Overnight, more than 170 people and 50 pieces of equipment dealt with the aftermath of the attack, quickly extinguishing fires and assisting residents," Three injured crew members of the damaged boat were being treated in hospital, Kondratyev said. Local officials later said that a fire at an oil depot at the Sheskharis terminal, which handles crude oil and oil product exports, had been extinguished. Coastal structures had also been damaged, they said, without providing details. The Ukrainian statement said damage was also inflicted on a Russian S-400 air defence system and missile storage facility, causing a detonation and a fire. Reuters could not independently confirm those details.

Oil Jumps After Russia Halts Exports From Major Oil Hub -- Oil prices jumped around 1.5% Friday morning after a Ukrainian strike on Russia's main Black Sea port forced the suspension of oil loading operations. The NYMEX WTI contract for December delivery jumped $1.01 to $59.70 barrel (bbl), and ICE Brent for January delivery rose $0.87 to $63.88 bbl. December RBOB gasoline futures edged up $0.0175 to $1.9772 gallon, and front-month ULSD futures advanced $0.0651 to $2.5298 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index was little changed, down 0.080 points to 98.970 against a basket of foreign currencies. Ukrainian attacks reportedly damaged an oil depot and a vessel in the port of Novorossiysk. The port is one of Russia's main oil export hubs, loading more than 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude oil exports. It also houses the terminal for most seaborne Kazakh crude oil exports, amounting to some 1.5 million bpd. While Russia suspended exports from the port, the terminal handling Kazakh exports seems to be unaffected. The extent of the damage and duration of the export pause remain unclear, although the newest attack fueled supply risk concerns that added to the geopolitical risk premium in oil. Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure have so far mostly affected the downstream sector, leading to fuel shortages and fuel export bans, but barely impacting crude oil supply. In its monthly oil market report published Thursday, the International Energy Agency flagged elevated risks to Russian crude oil supply posed by fresh U.S. and U.K. sanctions on the country's two largest oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, and threats of secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian energy. While Russian crude oil export volumes have so far proven resilient to sanctions, the IEA did flag rapidly swelling volumes of Russian oil on water as some cargoes struggle to find buyers ahead of the new sanctions coming into force on Nov. 21. At the same time, the Paris-based energy watchdog raised its forecast on next year's global oil surplus to 4.09 million bpd from a prior 3.97 million bpd. This was despite OPEC+ halting output increases in the first quarter of 2026, citing historically low demand growth versus healthy output growth in non-OPEC oil production. The report also noted that global inventories expanded for the ninth consecutive month in October. In the U.S., crude oil inventories grew more than expected last week. The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Thursday reported a 6.4 million bbl build to commercial crude oil stocks in the week ending Nov. 7. At 427.6 million bbl, inventories were 11.6 million bbl higher than two weeks earlier.

Oil settles up more than 2% as Russian port suspends oil exports after Ukrainian attack (Reuters) - Oil prices settled more than 2% higher on Friday as Russia's port of Novorossiisk halted oil exports following a Ukrainian drone attack that hit an oil depot in the Russian energy hub, stoking supply concerns. Brent crude futures settled up $1.38, or 2.19%, at $64.39 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled up $1.40, or 2.39%, at $60.09 a barrel. Brent rose 1.2% on the week, and WTI posted a weekly gain of around 0.6%. Friday's attack damaged a ship in port, apartment blocks and an oil depot in Novorossiisk, injuring three of the vessel's crew, Russian officials said. "The hit on that Russian terminal was huge and seems to have had a bigger impact than previous attacks," The Russian port of Novorossiisk paused oil exports, equivalent to 2.2 million barrels per day, or 2% of global supply, and oil pipeline monopoly Transneft suspended crude supplies to the outlet, two industry sources told Reuters. "The intensity of these attacks has increased; it's much more often. Eventually, they could hit something that causes lasting disruption," said Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS. Ukraine on Friday said it separately struck an oil refinery in Russia's Saratov region and a fuel storage facility in nearby Engels overnight. Investors are trying to assess the impact of the latest attacks and what they mean for Russian supply longer term, he said. Investors are also watching the impact of Western sanctions on Russian oil supply and trade flows. Britain on Friday issued a special licence allowing businesses to continue working with two Bulgarian subsidiaries of sanctioned Russian oil firm Lukoil, as the Bulgarian government seized control of the assets. The U.S. imposed sanctions banning deals with Russian oil companies Lukoil and Rosneft after November 21 as part of efforts to bring the Kremlin to peace talks over Ukraine. About 1.4 million bpd of Russia's oil, or almost a third of seaborne export potential, has been added to stocks held on tankers as unloading slows due to the U.S. sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil, JPMorgan said on Thursday. Unloading cargoes could become much more challenging after the November 21 cut-off to receive oil supplied by the companies, the bank added. Meanwhile, the number of rigs drilling for oil in the United States rose by 3 to 417 in the week to November 14, data from oil services firm Baker Hughes showed on Friday.

Iran Seizes Oil Tanker in Gulf of Oman -Iran seized on Friday an oil tanker en route to Singapore after it passed the critical Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East in the first major escalation of the tensions in the region since the Iran-Israel war in June. The Marshall Islands-flagged oil tanker Talara was seized by Iranian forces in the Gulf of Oman after having passed the Strait of Hormuz from Ajman in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), heading to Singapore. Iran’s forces diverted the ship from the international waters to the Iranian territorial waters, a U.S. defense official told AP on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence matters. The vessel was travelling near Khor Fakkan in the United Arab Emirates when it lost contact with Columbia Shipmanagement, its Cyprus-based manager, the company told Bloomberg.The tanker Talara had loaded high sulfur gasoil from the UAE’s northeastern deep-water port of Hamriyah in October, according to vessel-tracking data cited by Bloomberg. The Talara has passed the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint and was turning to the Gulf of Oman when the incident took place. The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), the UK Navy’s liaison in the region, said on Friday that it had received a report of an incident 20 nautical miles east of Khor Fakkan, the UAE. Emirates Authorities are investigating while vessels are advised to transit with caution and report any suspicious activity to UKMTO, it said. A possible “state activity” forced the Talara to turn into Iranian territorial waters, according to UKMTO cited by AP. Iran has not yet acknowledged or commented on the incident, which reignites the tensions in the Middle East that the oil market seemed to have forgotten in recent months. In June, with the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and the Israel-Iran war, the oil market was on edgefearing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of global daily oil consumption passes.

Ukraine Suffers Power Cuts After Russia’s Heaviest Air Barrage in Months - Kyiv and many Ukrainian regions faced extensive power cuts and outages as crews struggled to repair infrastructure battered by Russian air attacks.Power was reduced in most regions for eight to 16 hours on November 9, state energy provider Ukrenergo said, adding that consumption restrictions were scheduled for November 10 as well. "The reason for the introduction of restrictions is the consequences of massive Russian missile and drone attacks on energy facilities," the company said. "It is difficult to recall such a [large] number of direct strikes on energy facilities since the beginning of the invasion," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his nightly video address that "repair crews are working almost around the clock in most regions." "Restoration efforts are ongoing, and although the situation is difficult, thousands of people are involved in stabilizing the system and repairing the damage," he added. Even before the onset of cold weather across Ukraine, Russia had intensified its campaign to take out the country's power grid, as well as natural gas facilities and pipelines, in an effort to freeze and demoralize Ukrainians. At least seven people were killed and an unknown number of others wounded in the Russian attacks on November 7, prompting Zelenskyy to again urge Kyiv's allies to punish Russia and pressure President Vladimir Putin. "Any [further] weakening…only encourages Putin to prolong the war, inflict more damage on our country, our people, and others around the world," he said on November 8. Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha said Russia had targeted substations that provided power to two nuclear facilities. "These were not accidental, but well-planned strikes. Russia is deliberately jeopardizing Europe's nuclear safety," he said in a post to X. He called for an urgent meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN nuclear watchdog, to respond to the "unacceptable risks." IAEA director Rafael Grossi warned of the danger of military strikes on nuclear plant electrical substations. "I continue to call for maximum military restraint in order to maintain nuclear safety and avoid an accident with serious radiological consequences,” he said in a statement. Grossi also said Ukraine's biggest nuclear facility, in Zaporizhzhya, had regained access to back-up electricity from the grid for the first time in six months. The plant, which is under Russian control, has seen interruptions that have endangered critical plant infrastructure, like pumps that supply cooling water. Russia launched more than 450 drones and 45 missiles in the November 8 barrage, Ukrainian officials said. Russia's Defense Ministry, meanwhile, said it had launched "a massive strike with high-precision long-range air, ground and sea-based weapons" and claimed it targeted weapon production and energy facilities in Ukraine.Power cuts were also undertaken in the Poltava region under a special emergency outage schedule ordered by Ukrenergo, with Kremenchuk -- a city of 200,000 people -- reporting a complete blackout, prompting the opening of temporary public hubs offering heat, power, Internet, water, and basic aid.In Dnipro, a Russian drone strike hit a nine?story residential building, with at least three people reported killed. A two-day mourning has been declared.Russian attacks also cut power to subway stations in Ukraine's second largest city, Kharkiv, Mayor Ihor Terekhov said. Subways and trams have been fully stopped and water supplies have also been disrupted, he said in a post to Telegram. For its part, Ukraine has conducted its own near-nightly drone barrage of Russian energy facilities, a campaign that has sharply reduced Russia's ability to produce gasoline and other refined oil products. In Russian border regions, like Belgorod and Kursk, Ukraine has hit electricity infrastructure, along with municipal heating plants.More than 20,000 people were reported without power in several border regions on November 9, Belgorod Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said. Unconfirmed reports said that the municipal heating plant in Voronezh, about 200 kilometers east of the Russian border, had been hit by Ukrainian drones.The Defense Ministry reported that more than 40 Ukrainian drones were downed overnight, mostly over the Bryansk region. The Defense Ministry made no mention of the Voronezh region.Kyiv has urged the United States to supply long?range Tomahawk missiles to strike targets deep inside Russia but President Donald Trump has repeatedly rebuffed the requests. Moscow warned Washington against sending Tomahawks, with Putin calling the move a "completely new stage of escalation" in US-Russia relations.As Ukraine battled with the latest attacks on its energy sector, its forces were also struggling to hold the strategic Donetsk city of Pokrovsk.Ukrainian authorities have acknowledged that the situation in the region is "difficult" but have denied Russian claims that Pokrovsk is surrounded.The city has become the fiercest area on Ukraine's front line this year, with fighting there resembling some of the bloodiest and longest battles of the war.Ukrainian military expert Oleksiy Hetman told RFE/RL that while the situation is growing difficult, Ukrainian forces still have strongholds prepared west of the city, which would allow them to repel further Russian assaults.

Ukraine Claims Fresh Strike on Saratov Refinery - Ukraine claimed new strikes on two Russian refineries as military authorities in Kyiv press ahead with attacks on Moscow's oil-processing industry to curtail its energy revenues. Ukraine's General Staff said it struck Rosneft PJSC's Saratov refinery in Russia's Volga region for a second time this month, triggering explosions and "a massive fire," with the extent of damage still being assessed. Later on Tuesday, it claimed a separate attack on the Orsk refinery in the Orenburg region near Kazakhstan that damaged a key processing unit. Bloomberg News was not able to independently verify the strikes or the extent of the damage. Rosneft and ForteInvest JSC, which owns the Orsk refinery, didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment. Saratov regional governor Roman Busargin said unnamed industrial facilities, located in the Zavodskoy area of Saratov, were damaged in the overnight drone attack, providing no further details. The Saratov refinery is located in the same area. Orenburg regional governor Evgeny Solntsev also cited damage to an industrial facility, without providing details. Ukraine has intensified strikes on Russian oil infrastructure - from refineries to crude pipelines and sea terminals - in recent months in an effort to reduce the energy revenue that helps Moscow finance its invasion. Since the beginning of August, Ukrainian drones targeted Russian oil-processing facilities nearly 40 times, compared with 21 strikes between January and July, according to public statements and data gathered by Bloomberg. That’s also more than the total number of Ukrainian drone strikes on the Russian downstream segment last year. As a result of refinery outages, fuel prices at the Russian commodity exchange set historic highs and gasoline shortages emerged in several regions across the nation. In response, the Russian government imposed a ban on gasoline exports until year-end and introduces some restrictions on exports of diesel. Some of Russia's refineries were able to quickly repair the damage in the recent weeks, yet the nation's oil-processing volumes still remain below the seasonal norm. The Saratov refinery has the capacity to process about 140,000 barrels of crude a day and is a key supplier of gasoline and diesel to regions in the western, most populated parts of Russia. It has been a target of multiple Ukrainian drone attacks this year, most recently on Nov. 3. The Orsk facility, last attacked early October, has a design capacity to process about 130,000 barrels a day and produces several types of gasoline, jet fuel and diesel.

Nordic and Baltic States Pledge $500 Million To Purchase US Weapons for Ukraine - A group of eight Baltic and Nordic NATO states announced on Thursdaythat they were pooling together funds to pledge $500 million to the NATO scheme that funds US arms shipments to Ukraine, known as the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List, or PURL initiative.According to numbers released by Ukraine earlier this month, the new package funded by Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, and Sweden brings the total in PURL funds pledged by NATO countries to about $3.3 billion. The initiative first began over the summer following a White House meeting between President Trump and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte. The US started actually shipping weapons to Ukraine using the PURL fundsin September. The US and NATO have not detailed the contents of each PURL package, but reports say it is primarily air defenses, including Patriot missile interceptors, missiles for the HIMARS rocket systems, and other types of munitions.The Trump administration has also continued to ship weapons packages to Ukraine that were previously approved by the Biden administration and has approved several weapons sales for Ukraine, including one that’s partially funded by US military aid and will arm Ukrainian forces with long-range cruise missiles. US weapons shipments to Ukraine were reportedly slowed by the government shutdown, which just ended this week. The news of the latest PURL funding comes as Ukraine is losing territory to advancing Russian forces in both eastern and southern Ukraine, and peace talks between the two sides remain stalled.

Ukrainian Justice and Energy Ministers Forced To Resign as Corruption Scandal Rocks Ukraine - Ukraine’s energy and justice ministers have been forced to resign amid a corruption probe by Ukraine’s anti-graft watchdogs, which found that close allies of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky have skimmed about $100 million from Ukraine’s energy sector.The revelations come as Russia has been pounding Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, causing widespread blackouts and leaving the government scrambling to make repairs and get more funding for its energy sector from its Western backers.The findings were the result of a 15-month investigation by Ukraine’s two state corruption watchdogs, the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU), and the Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAP). Earlier this year, Zelensky attempted to curb the powers of NABU and SAP, but reversed the move after facing significant backlash.In response to the investigation, Zelensky called for the resignation of Justice Minister German Galushchenko and Energy Minister Svitlana Hrynchuk. “This is, among other things, a matter of trust. If there are accusations, they must be addressed. The decision on suspension from office is prompt, as swift as possible. I have asked the Prime Minister of Ukraine to ensure that these ministers submit their resignations,” Zelensky said in a video address on Wednesday.The Ukrainian leader said that he supports “every investigation carried out by law enforcement and anti-corruption officials, and this is an absolutely clear and consistent position for everyone.”While Zelensky himself is not implicated in the investigation, one of his business partners is. Timur Mindich, a Ukrainian businessman and co-owner of Zelensky’s Kvartal 95 media production company, is alleged by SAP to be the ringleader of the scheme to get kickbacks from the Ukrainian energy sector. Galushchenko, the now-resigned justice minister, has been accused of helping Minich launder money, though he has not been charged.POLITICO reported that Minich was tipped off about the investigation and has fled to Israel. So far, five out of seven people allegedly involved in the network have been arrested.The investigation involved 1,000 hours of wiretapping, and, according to The Associated Press, two recorded discussions involved delays in building defensive fortifications for energy sites and waiting for a more profitable alternative. The conversations mentioned giving contracts to build defensive protections to a known company, and later to increase kickbacks up to 15%.Ukraine has long been notorious for corruption, but the US and its NATO allies sought to downplay the issue following the 2022 Russian invasion as they poured hundreds of billions of dollars in weapons and other kinds of aid into the country.

LIVE BLOG: ‘Everything in Gaza Has Been Destroyed’ as Israel Continues to Violate Ceasefire – Day 769 - The Khan Yunis Municipality said on Wednesday that everything in Gaza has been destroyed, as Israeli forces continued to violate the ceasefire. Despite the truce, Israeli air and artillery attacks have persisted across the enclave, leaving no area untouched..Since October 7, 2023, Israel has killed 69,187 and injured 170,703 others, the majority of whom are women and children, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health in Gaza.

Officials Fear Permanent Israeli Occupation of More Than Half of Gaza - Reuters reported on Tuesday that European officials and other sources are concerned that, without more progress on the US-brokered Gaza ceasefire deal, the so-called “yellow line” dividing Israeli-occupied Gaza from the rest of the Strip will become a de facto border, meaning there will be an indefinite Israeli occupation of the Palestinian territory.The report comes as the Trump administration is pushing for a plan to allow reconstruction only in the Israeli-occupied side of Gaza, which accounts for about 58% of the territory. The Atlantic has reported that the US is considering building housing on the Israeli side of the yellow line that could be used by Palestinians who have been “screened” and approved by Israeli intelligence.Arab countries have been warning against the plan as they fear it will lead to a permanent Israeli occupation and expressed skepticism about the idea of Palestinians being willing to live on the Israeli side.“Palestinians may not want to live under the rule of Hamas, but the idea that they’ll be willing to move to live under Israeli occupation and be under control of the party they also see as responsible for killing 70,000 of their brethren is fantastical,” an Arab diplomat told The Times of Israel last week.The Atlantic report said that less than 2% of Gaza’s population lives on the Israeli-occupied side of the yellow line. Israel is backing at least four anti-Hamas militias and gangs behind the yellow line, and the US has reportedly been in contact with the groups about “enforcing order” in Gaza. One of the gangs, led by Yasser Abu Shabab, who admitted in 2024 that his group was looting aid trucks, has members with ties to ISIS. Israeli media reported on Tuesday that Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, who has been pushing the plan to divide Gaza into two, met with Abu Shabab, but the State Department denied that the meeting took place. The reports said that the US believes the Abu Shabab gang could help facilitate the movement of an estimated 150 Hamas militants trapped in Rafah on the Israeli-occupied side of the yellow line. Under the US ceasefire plan, Israel is required to withdraw further from the yellow line as an international force is deployed into Gaza and as the Strip is “demilitarized.” But there has been little progress on forming the international force, as the countries willing to participate want more clarity on the mission and don’t want to end up fighting Hamas on behalf of Israel. Hamas has also ruled out the idea of disarming without the establishment of a Palestinian state, an idea the Israeli government has repeatedly rejected.

Palestinian Bodies Show Signs of Organ Harvesting, Says Surgeon Ghassan Abu Sitta -The bodies of Palestinians recently returned by Israel appear “highly indicative of organ harvesting,” according to British-Palestinian surgeon, Dr. Ghassan Abu Sitta.“The bodies show clearly surgically removed lungs, heart, kidneys and liver – done in a professional, surgical way, using sharp bone saws, causing zero damage to surrounding tissues,” Abu Sitta told Al-Jazeera earlier this week, the Quds News Network (QNN) reported. His conclusions are based on photographs that he saw of the bodies, which the Palestinian Ministry of Health received from the Israeli army. In an interview with @AJEnglish @AJArabic , Dr. @GhassanAbuSitt1 revealed medical evidence indicating that vital organs — including hearts, lungs, kidneys, and corneas — were surgically stolen by the Israeli occupation from Palestinian martyrs in #Gaza. … pic.twitter.com/yu18JeQb7M“The bodies show clearly surgically removed lungs, heart, kidneys and liver – done in a professional, surgical way, using sharp bone saws, causing zero damage to surrounding tissues,” he said. The UK-based surgeon said the bodies “also had liquid nitrogen burns on their skin, but no other injuries. It’s unlikely the organs were retrieved post-mortem.” Liquid nitrogen is a chemical used to prevent tissue degradation. He added: “All of these bodies belonged to Palestinians whose families said they had been imprisoned alive. So all of this is highly indicative of organ harvesting.” Abu Sitta noted that “every organ was removed as if ready for transplant.”The photographs were taken on October 17, shortly after Israel handed over 120 bodies, he said. Abu Sitta’s comments support reports by the Gaza Government Media Office director, Dr. Ismail al-Thawabta, who also reported that Israeli forces stole organs from Palestinian corpses and called for an immediate international investigation, QNN reported. Al-Thawabta reportedly said dozens of bodies were found mutilated and missing vital parts, including eyes, limbs, and internal organs.“When we examined the bodies, we found that large parts were missing, there were half bodies, bodies without heads, without limbs, without eyes, and without internal organs,” he was quoted as saying.Gaza’s Health Ministry confirmed on Monday that 315 bodies have been received from Israeli authorities since the US-brokered ceasefire took effect last month. The Ministry confirmed that 38 unidentified bodies were buried, raising the total number of unidentified bodies buried to 182.Gaza’s forensic department has previously said that most Palestinian bodies returned from Israel were blindfolded and bound, providing evidence of torture and execution before death.Several bodies of Palestinians whose remains had been held by Israeli occupation forces and could not be identified were buried in a mass grave in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip. pic.twitter.com/58zsIoe2wg— Quds News Network (@QudsNen) November 10, 2025Hamas said in a statement on Monday that Israel has “handed over dozens of Palestinian bodies that had been brutally mutilated, including bodies crushed under tank treads, and others who were field-executed while bound and blindfolded.”“This constitutes a fully-fledged war crime and a flagrant violation of international humanitarian law,” the statement added.Gaza’s Government Media Office has called “for the urgent establishment of an independent international commission of inquiry to investigate these heinous crimes and to hold Israeli leaders accountable for the war crimes committed against our people in the Gaza Strip.”Mohammed Zaqout, director of hospitals in Gaza’s Health Ministry, also spoke about the “clear signs of torture” found on the bodies, QNN reported.He said: “One body shows signs of hanging with a rope still wrapped around the neck, blindfolds around the eyes, and bound hands. That martyr was placed as is and sent to us.”Citing the Palestine Center for Prisoners Studies, QNN reported that the deaths of more than half of the Palestinian prisoners in detention were a result of torture and abuse. Due to the sharp rise in arrests, particularly of Palestinians from Gaza, Israel has opened new detention and interrogation centers operated directly by its military, the report stated.According to the Center, these facilities have become sites of “systematic torture and mistreatment, in clear violation of international law and human rights,” the report added.A new report published on Friday in the leading peer-reviewed medical journal The BMJ details extensive evidence of torture and inhumane treatment of Palestinians held in Israeli detention sites since 2023, including accusations of complicity by Israeli health workers. The report, co-authored by physicians and medical experts including Dr. Sara el-Solh and Norwegian doctor and professor Mads Gilbert, cites multiple documented cases of physical, psychological, and sexual violence against Palestinian detainees.

Land Grab Feared as IDF Builds Wall Deep Into Southern Lebanon - Amid Israel’s ongoing military escalation against Lebanon, there is mounting concern that the Israeli military intends to effectively seize significant parts of the southern Lebanese border area, as troops are constructing a wall in the area near Maroun El Ras and Aitaroun, several kilometers into Lebanese territory. The move is being presented by Israeli media as an attempt to further secure one of the IDF’s “strategic sites,” military outposts they built inside Lebanon after last year’s war and which they refused to withdraw from.This ties into military operations inside Aitaroun, where Israeli troops blew up multiple homes inside the border town. The IDF similarly blew up homes in Houla on Monday, which they claimed was because Hezbollah was using the homes.The border wall construction comes as the US is pressuring Lebanon to enter into direct talks with Israel, talks that Lebanon has already agreed to and which Israel has recently rejected out of hand. This suggests that even if the talks do end up happening, ending the Israeli occupation is a non-starter.Meanwhile, Israeli attacks only continue to escalate, as we come up on the one-year anniversary of the ceasefire that was meant to end the Israeli invasion. The IDF has claimed 15 Hezbollah members killed, without providing evidence, and Lebanese firefighters and civil defense forces struggle to contain fires set across the south by Israeli strikes.While Hezbollah has thus far not fired any rockets at Israel since the ceasefire began, the growing escalation and Israeli demands for the Lebanon government to crack down on Hezbollah may be bringing that, and any pretense of a ceasefire, to an end.Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem warned the group will not agree to disarmament during the active Israeli attack, adding the current situation “cannot continue” and the group remains ready to defend Lebanon’s sovereignty.