week ending Oct 12

FOMC Minutes: "Some participants noted that there had been a plausible case for a 25 basis point rate cut at the previous meeting" - From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee. Excerpt: With regard to the outlook for inflation, almost all participants indicated they had gained greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward 2 percent. Participants cited various factors that were likely to put continuing downward pressure on inflation. These included a further modest slowing in real GDP growth, in part due to the Committee's restrictive monetary policy stance; well-anchored inflation expectations; waning pricing power; increases in productivity; and a softening in world commodity prices. Several participants noted that nominal wage growth was continuing to slow, with a few participants citing signs that it was set to decline further. These signs included lower rates of increases in cyclically sensitive wages and data indicating that job switchers were no longer receiving a wage premium over other employees. A couple of participants remarked that, with wages being a relatively large portion of business costs in the services sector, that sector's disinflation process would be particularly assisted by slower nominal wage growth. In addition, several participants observed that, with supply and demand in the labor market roughly in balance, wage increases were unlikely to be a source of general inflation pressures in the near future. With regard to housing services prices, some participants suggested that a more rapid disinflationary trend might emerge fairly soon, reflecting the slower pace of rent increases faced by new tenants. Participants emphasized that inflation remained somewhat elevated and that they were strongly committed to returning inflation to the Committee's 2 percent objective. ... In their consideration of monetary policy at this meeting, participants noted that inflation had made further progress toward the Committee's objective but remained somewhat elevated. Almost all participants expressed greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward 2 percent. Participants also observed that recent indicators suggested that economic activity had continued to expand at a solid pace, job gains had slowed, and the unemployment rate had moved up but remained low. Almost all participants judged that the risks to achieving the Committee's employment and inflation goals were roughly in balance. In light of the progress on inflation and the balance of risks, all participants agreed that it was appropriate to ease the stance of monetary policy. Given the significant progress made since the Committee first set its target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent, a substantial majority of participants supported lowering the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 4-3/4 to 5 percent. These participants generally observed that such a recalibration of the stance of monetary policy would begin to bring it into better alignment with recent indicators of inflation and the labor market. They also emphasized that such a move would help sustain the strength in the economy and the labor market while continuing to promote progress on inflation, and would reflect the balance of risks. Some participants noted that there had been a plausible case for a 25 basis point rate cut at the previous meeting and that data over the intermeeting period had provided further evidence that inflation was on a sustainable path toward 2 percent while the labor market continued to cool. However, noting that inflation was still somewhat elevated while economic growth remained solid and unemployment remained low, some participants observed that they would have preferred a 25 basis point reduction of the target range at this meeting, and a few others indicated that they could have supported such a decision. Several participants noted that a 25 basis point reduction would be in line with a gradual path of policy normalization that would allow policymakers time to assess the degree of policy restrictiveness as the economy evolved. A few participants also added that a 25 basis point move could signal a more predictable path of policy normalization. A few participants remarked that the overall path of policy normalization, rather than the specific amount of initial easing at this meeting, would be more important in determining the degree of policy restriction. Participants judged that it was appropriate to continue the process of reducing the Federal Reserve's securities holdings.

FOMC Minutes Show Fed Considerably More Divided Over Size Of Rate Cut -- Since the last FOMC meeting on September 18th, bonds have suffered a bloodbath while gold, stocks, and the dollar are all up modestly... Graph Series Source: Bloomberg. Despite the apparent dovish pivot, the market's expectations for rate-cuts (this year and next) has plunged dramatically... This should not come as a huge surprise as Powell's raison d'etre for major rate cuts evaporated as US macro data has surged higher, surprising to the upside almost non-stop... It's hard to justify slashing rates any further in the face of that macro backdrop without exposing the 'political' decision-making process behind The Fed's move. So, now we see the Minutes - what exactly is it that The Fed wants us to believe they are thinking? Despite there only being one dissent against the 50bps cut (Michelle Bowman), The Fed Minutes suggest that the members are considerably more divided than headlines suggested…

• Given the significant progress made since the Committee first set its target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent, a substantial majority of participants supported lowering the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 4-3/4 to 5 percent. These participants generally observed that such a recalibration of the stance of monetary policy would begin to bring it into better alignment with recent indicators of inflation and the labor market. They also emphasized that such a move would help sustain the strength in the economy and the labor market while continuing to promote progress on inflation, and would reflect the balance of risks.
• Some participants noted that there had been a plausible case for a 25 basis point rate cut at the previous meeting and that data over the intermeeting period had provided further evidence that inflation was on a sustainable path toward 2 percent while the labor market continued to cool. However, noting that inflation was still somewhat elevated while economic growth remained solid and unemployment remained low, some participants observed that they would have preferred a 25 basis point reduction of the target range at this meeting, and a few others indicated that they could have supported such a decision.
• Several participants noted that a 25 basis point reduction would be in line with a gradual path of policy normalization that would allow policymakers time to assess the degree of policy restrictiveness as the economy evolved.
• A few participants also added that a 25 basis point move could signal a more predictable path of policy normalization.
• A few participants remarked that the overall path of policy normalization, rather than the specific amount of initial easing at this meeting,would be more important in determining the degree of policy restriction. Participants judged that it was appropriate to continue the process of reducing the Federal Reserve's securities holdings.

Breaking down some specific topics...

• Participants generally noted it was important to communicate decisions are conditional on evolution of economy, implications for balance of risks and therefore not on a preset course.
• Staff outlook for the September meeting was for the economy to remain 'solid': though the forecast for growth in H2 24 was 'marked' down reflecting softer-than-expected labor indicators.
• "Those who commented on the degree of restrictiveness of monetary policy observed that they believed it to be restrictive, though they expressed a range of views about the degree of restrictiveness. "
• "..., and most remarked that the downside risks to employment had increased,"

Finally on INFLATION: "With regard to the outlook for inflation, almost all participants indicated they had gained greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward 2 percent. Participants cited various factors that were likely to put continuing downward pressure on inflation. These included a further modest slowing in real GDP growth, in part due to the Committee's restrictive monetary policy stance; well-anchored inflation expectations; waning pricing power; increases in productivity; and a softening in world commodity prices""Several participants noted that nominal wage growth was continuing to slow, with a few participants citing signs that it was set to decline further. These signs included lower rates of increases in cyclically sensitive wages and data indicating that job switchers were no longer receiving a wage premium over other employees. A couple of participants remarked that, with wages being a relatively large portion of business costs in the services sector, that sector's disinflation process would be particularly assisted by slower nominal wage growth.""In addition, several participants observed that, with supply and demand in the labor market roughly in balance, wage increases were unlikely to be a source of general inflation pressures in the near future. With regard to housing services prices, some participants suggested that a more rapid disinflationary trend might emerge fairly soon, reflecting the slower pace of rent increases faced by new tenants."

Fed's Goolsbee Sees Gradual Policy Rate Cuts Over Next 12-18 Months (Reuters) - Chicago Federal Reserve Bank Austan Goolsbee on Thursday said he sees a series of interest-rate cuts over the next year to year and a half, noting that inflation is now near the Fed's 2% goal and the economy is about at full employment, and the Fed's goal is to freeze those conditions in place. "Over a 12-18 month period, I think we are going to gradually, whatever word you want to use, move to a steady state" on the policy rate, Goolsbee said in a CNBC interview. He noted that there was broad agreement among policymakers that rates need to drop a "fair amount" over that time period. Near-term, he said, there are likely to be more meetings where policy decisions will be close calls, as last month's was, as central bankers sift through sometimes conflicting data.

Fed's Goolsbee shrugs off CPI report, points to inflation trend - Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said he wasn't overly concerned with a higher-than-forecast September inflation report and stuck by his view that the U.S. central bank has moved past its singular focus on price pressures. The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago president stuck by his view that the U.S. central bank has moved past its singular focus on price pressures.

Fed vice chair: Discount window 'effective' but still needs to evolve -- Change is coming to one of the Federal Reserve's oldest policy tools, but as the central bank's No. 2 official said, that is nothing new. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson discussed the history of the central bank's last-resort lending facility. He characterized the Fed's latest outreach as part of a century-long effort to fine-tune the discount window.

Near Record Foreign Demand For Tailing 10Y Auction --After yesterday's ugly, tailing 3Y auction, which saw a plunge in foreign demand as a result of the recent spike in yields as faith in the Fed's easing plans has been deeply shaken in recent weeks, moments ago the Treasury sold $39BN in 10Y paper (in the form of reopening of 9Y-10M cusip LF6), in a sale that was substandard at best. The auction stopped at a high yield of 4.066%, up sharply from last month's 3.648% (which was the lowest since May 2023), and tailed the When Issued 4.062% by 0.4bps, a big reversal from last month's 1.4bps through auction (but nowhere near as bad as the 3.1bps tail in August). The bid to cover was subpar, sliding to 2.481 from 2.637 in September, and was also below the 6-auction average 2.50. Curiously, the internals were not bad at all, perhaps as foreign central banks sought to load up on US paper now that yields are back over 4%, and the Indirect takedown rose to 77.6%from 761%, and just shy of the all time high hit in Feb 2023 when indirects took down just under 80%. And with Dealers awarded 13.9%, that left Directs holding just 8.4% of the auction, the lowest since Nov 2018. Overall, this was a curious auction, one which saw near record foreign demand yet where the metrics were subpar at best. Which is probably why after rising to a session high 4.07% just before the auction, yields were unchanged after the result. Meanwhile, stocks continue to push ever higher to new all time highs, completely obvious of the latest surge in yields.

US spending on Middle East conflict tops $22B since Oct. 7: Research -The United States government has spent more than $22 billion on fighting the conflict in the Middle East since war erupted a year ago on Oct. 7, 2023, according to new research. The Costs of War project at Brown University found the U.S. has spent at least $22.76 billion on supporting Israel over the past year and for related American military operations in the region, including battling the Iranian-backed Houthi militants in the Red Sea. The data, which captures costs through Sept. 30, shows the U.S. has provided at least $17.9 billion to support Israeli military operations in Gaza, at the border with Lebanon, in the West Bank, against Iran and other Iranian-backed groups in the Middle East. The amount provided to Israel in the past year is the highest it’s been since direct U.S. aid to the nation began in 1959, according to researchers. The U.S. has been a top provider of military aid to Israel for decades and has been distributing for years some $3 billion annually to the country. The aid to Israel includes artillery shells, air defense munitions, precision-guided munitions and heavy bombs, which have been used to devastating effect in Gaza, where more than 41,000 people have died. The Biden administration has been holding a shipment of 2,000 pound bombs since May out of concern of their use to disproportionately harm or kill civilians in Gaza. The U.S. has spent at least $4.86 billion to support military assets in the region and operations against the Houthi rebels in Yemen, who have been attacking commercial shipping in the Red Sea since November, according to the research. American troops began a more direct military campaign against the Houthis in January, which has included frequent strikes to knock out incoming attacks and larger strikes to degrade military assets. In some cases, the Navy has been firing expensive missiles, which can cost up to $4 million, to take out cheap Houthi drones. The Houthis have hijacked, sunk or heavily damaged several ships in their campaign, which they claim is tied to the Gaza war. Brown University researchers said the Houthis have inflicted a $2.1 billion impact on maritime trade so far. The U.S. has also deployed around 43,000 troops to the Middle East as part of an effort to deter a wider regional war. Strategic military assets sent to the region include the USS Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group, amphibious assault ships and a guided missile submarine. The research is considered a conservative estimate and likely does not account for the full cost of operations. The Washington Post reported earlier this year that the U.S. has provided 100 small arms deliveries that fall under the threshold of a certain dollar amount that would require congressional notification.

Support for Israel Has Cost US Taxpayers At Least $22.76 Billion in One Year - Support for Israel’s onslaught in Gaza and other escalations in the Middle East has cost the US at least $22.76 billion since October 7, 2023, Brown University’s Costs of War project said in a paper published on Monday. Costs of War reached the number, which is a very conservative estimate, by combining the cost of US military aid to Israel and the cost of related US military operations in the region, including the war against the Houthis in Yemen.The report found that the US government has approved at least $17.9 billion in military aid to support Israeli military operations in Gaza and elsewhere in the region over the past year, significantly more than any other year since the US began providing military aid to Israel in 1959.The paper notes the difficulty in tracking US military support for Israel due to the Biden administration’s lack of transparency. “For instance, the Biden administration has made at least 100 arms deals with Israel since October 2023 that fell below the value that would have triggered the requirement to notify Congress of the details,” the paper reads.Chart from the Costs of War report. The $17.9 billion also does not include a major $20.3 arms deal that the State Department approved for Israel in August since the money will be spent in the coming years. It’s also unclear at this time how much of the $20.3 billion, which includes an $18.8 billion deal for F-15 fighter jets, will be covered by US military aid.The paper details how the US has provided Israel with weapons for decades. “The US has been Israel’s top arms supplier for over five decades. Israel is the largest cumulative recipient of US aid in the world since World War II, and it is in the midst of a ten-year, $38 billion military aid agreement, which was negotiated under the Obama administration, covering the fiscal years 2019 to 2028,” the paper reads.The report says the US has spent at least $4.8 billion on its own military operations in the Middle East, including $2.4 billion on intercepting Houthi missiles and drones and launching missile strikes on Yemen. Another $2.4 billion for spending on US operations in the region was included in the $95 billion foreign military aid bill President Biden signed into law in April. The paper adds another $50-$70 million in additional combat pay for US military personnel. The costs for the US taxpayer will continue to rise as there’s no end in sight to Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza or its bombing campaign in Lebanon. The risk of a full-blown war with Iran is also extremely high as the US is coordinating with Israel on its plans to attack Iran in retaliation for the Iranian missile barrage that hit Israel last week, which was a response to several Israeli escalations. The US bombing campaign in Yemen has also failed to deter the Houthis, who have vowed they would only stop their attacks on shipping if there were a ceasefire in Gaza.

Harris Defends Providing Military Aid to Israel Amid Major Escalations - Vice President Kamala Harris has defended the Biden administration’s continued military aid to Israel amid major Israeli escalations in Lebanon and the relentless onslaught in the Gaza Strip.“The aid that we have given Israel allowed Israel to defend itself against 200 ballistic missiles that were just meant to attack the Israelis and the people of Israel,” Harris said in an interview with 60 Minutes.“And when we think about the threat that Hamas, Hezbollah presents Iran, I think that it is without any question, our imperative to do what we can to allow Israel to defend itself against those kinds of attacks,” she added.Harris made the comments when asked if the US had any sway over Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The interviewer noted that Netanyahu had done many things the Biden administration said it opposed, including the escalation in Lebanon. The US hasn’t put any real pressure on Netanyahu to change course since it keeps providing weapons for Israel’s military operations.Harris claimed that the US would push Israel to reach a hostage and ceasefire deal with Hamas, but the administration hasn’t publicly criticized Netanyahu for doing everything he could to sabotage the chances of an agreement.When pressed further about Netanyahu, Harris said, “The work that we have done has resulted in a number of movements in that region by Israel that were very much prompted by, or a result of, many things — including our advocacy for what needs to happen in the region.”When asked if the US has a “close ally” in Netanyahu, Harris said, “I think, with all due respect, the better question is do we have an important alliance between the American people and the Israeli people. And the answer to that question is yes.”Harris has been a staunch supporter of Israel throughout her political career and has vowed that the US would continue providing military aid to Israel if she’s elected in November.

US Says It Doesn't Want a Ceasefire in Lebanon, Supports Israeli Offensive - The State Department said Tuesday that it doesn’t want to see a ceasefire in Lebanon and supports the heavy Israeli bombardment of the country to “degrade Hezbollah.”State Department spokesman Matt Miller was asked about comments from Hezbollah Deputy Sheikh Naim Qassem, who said the group supports efforts by Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri to reach a ceasefire without mentioning that it must also include a ceasefire in Gaza. “Now that Hezbollah is on the back foot and is getting battered, suddenly, they’ve changed their tune and want a ceasefire,” Miller told reporters.Miller claimed the US “ultimately wants a diplomatic solution” but voiced strong support for Israeli military operations, which have killed more than 1,250 people, including over 100 children. “We support Israel’s efforts to degrade Hezbollah’s capability,” he said.The US is also calling for Lebanon to hold new presidential elections amid the Israeli bombardment. Lebanon hasn’t had a president since 2022, as the many different factions in parliament haven’t agreed to elect one. Hezbollah’s political wing currently holds 15 seats in the nation’s 128-seat parliament.“What we want to see come out of this situation ultimately is Lebanon able to break the grip Hezbollah has had on the country … break the stranglehold that Hezbollah has had over the country,” Miller said.The US is still characterizing the Israeli assault on Lebanon as a “limited incursion” despite the massive bombings in Beirut and across the country.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signaled on Tuesday that more escalations were coming. In a threatening message to the people of Lebanon, he called for them to “free” the country of Hezbollah or they will face “destruction and suffering like we see in Gaza.”Before Israel launched a strike that killed Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, the US was calling for a temporary 21-day ceasefire. But the US put no real pressure on Israel to accept the truce since it provided amassive new military aid package as Netanyahu was rejecting the idea of a ceasefire.Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib said that Nasrallah agreed to a 21-day ceasefire with Israel just days before he was killed and that the US was informed of his decision. The State Department denied that the US was informed Nasrallah accepted the truce, but CNN later reported that a Western source familiar with the negotiations said Hezbollah had agreed to the ceasefire.

US Opposes Ceasefire In Lebanon, Urges Israel To 'Degrade' Hezbollah The State Department said Tuesday that it doesn’t want to see a ceasefire in Lebanon and supports the heavy Israeli bombardment of the country to "degrade Hezbollah." State Department spokesman Matt Miller was asked about comments from Hezbollah Deputy Sheikh Naim Qassem, who said the group supports efforts by Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri to reach a ceasefire without mentioning that it must also include a ceasefire in Gaza. "Now that Hezbollah is on the back foot and is getting battered, suddenly, they’ve changed their tune and want a ceasefire," Miller told reporters. Miller claimed the US "ultimately wants a diplomatic solution" but voiced strong support for Israeli military operations, which have killed more than 1,250 people, including over 100 children. "We support Israel’s efforts to degrade Hezbollah’s capability," he said. The US is also calling for Lebanon to hold new presidential elections amid the Israeli bombardment. Lebanon hasn’t had a president since 2022, as the many different factions in parliament haven’t agreed to elect one. Hezbollah’s political wing currently holds 15 seats in the nation’s 128-seat parliament."What we want to see come out of this situation ultimately is Lebanon able to break the grip Hezbollah has had on the country … break the stranglehold that Hezbollah has had over the country," Miller said.The US is still characterizing the Israeli assault on Lebanon as a "limited incursion" despite the massive bombings in Beirut and across the country.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signaled on Tuesday that more escalations were coming. In a threatening message to the people of Lebanon, he called for them to "free" the country from Hezbollah or they will face "destruction and suffering like we see in Gaza."Before Israel launched a strike that killed Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, the US was calling for a temporary 21-day ceasefire. But the US put no real pressure on Israel to accept the truce since it provided a massive new military aid package as Netanyahu was rejecting the idea of a ceasefire.

Biden must immediately issue an evacuation order for Americans in Lebanon -In an alarming escalation that threatens to provoke a full-blown regional war, Israel has launched a ground invasion of southern Lebanon in recent days and major airstrikes throughout that country, including in its capital, Beirut. Lebanon currently has approximately 86,000 U.S. citizens and green-card holders. Although7,000 people have already registered with the U.S. State Department for evacuation assistance, the Biden administration has made just 1,800 seats available on commercial airlines to U.S. citizens since the situation began deteriorating on Sept. 28. I am in touch with families who describe a chaotic scramble reminiscent of the mad dash to the airport and family separation we saw in Afghanistan in 2021. One family tells me they chose to split up siblings, deciding to have the older children fly out of the country first. Another client is a vet who had been visiting Lebanon to oversee his retirement project, a pro bono internet cafe. While Beirut-Rafic Hariri International Airport remains operational, commercial flights are at a reduced capacity with exorbitant ticket prices, flight cancellations and limited seats. The State Department has said it hopes to organize more flights but is not making these plans public as they may not materialize “for whatever reason.” With the violence only escalating, it’s likely a matter of days before commercial flights cease operations. We are on the brink of a potential disaster with many American lives on the line, which is why the Biden administration must issue a noncombatant evacuation order, before it’s too late.Such an order in Lebanon would not be unprecedented. In 2006, the Department of Defense and the State Department executed one, during which the military evacuated 15,000 Americans from a warzone over three months. However, there were notable shortcomings. First, the magnitude of the crisis taxed the State Department’s capacity. Second, the State Department failed to communicate effectively with the public and potential evacuees. Third, the different cultures and systems of the State and Defense departments impeded their ability to work together, resulting in miscommunications and delays in chartering ships and planes to evacuate.Yet, despite these flaws, the very existence of such an operation proves that the U.S. government can, and should, take similar action again. Waiting for the situation to escalate further would be a failure of leadership — something the Biden administration cannot afford. Indeed, this is the administration’s opportunity to be proactive instead of reactive when Arab and Muslim lives are on the line. Last October, before Israeli ground operations began in Gaza, the State Department moved lightning-fast to bring Israeli Americans to safety. Dubbed the “Estia plan,” chartered cruise ships took thousands of Israeli Americans from the port city of Haifa to Cyprus, which has a history of acting as a temporary hub for American evacuees. From there, Israeli Americans, their immediate relatives, and at least four pet dogs were flown home on chartered jets. Meanwhile, Palestinian Americans were abandoned by the State Department, which made a crisis intake form briefly available but otherwise refused to facilitate the exit of Americans through the Rafah Crossing. To save the lives of Palestinian Americans, it took a group of us filing evacuation lawsuits and raising the alarm in the media. Yet Americans remain trapped in Gaza, dodging Israeli bombstheir tax dollars have paid for. In June, my client, a green card holder, was killed in an Israeli bombardment while waiting for evacuation assistance. Lebanon does not have to be another moral and legal failure for the Biden administration, as Gaza has been. The arguments this administration used in refusing Palestinian Americans evacuation assistance simply do not work in Lebanon. Unlike Gaza, Lebanon is not occupied territory and, as of now, its borders remain open and the international airport and U.S. embassy also remain open. Under domestic and international law, the U.S. government has an obligation to safeguard its citizens during times of crisis, regardless of where they are in the world. The Constitutionmandates the protection of American citizens, and U.S. law requires the State Department to use all available resources to evacuate Americans when necessary. This includes not just military or government action but a full range of diplomatic, logistical and transportation resources. American citizens and green-card holders in Lebanon have every right to expect that their government will prioritize their safety. The path forward is clear. The Biden administration must issue a noncombatant evacuation order for Lebanon to ensure the safety of American citizens and their loved ones. This is not just a political issue; it is a moral imperative. We cannot afford to wait until the situation becomes irreversible. It is time to act — now.

Israel seeks to reshape Middle East, with force and with US backing --One year after Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack, Israel is reshaping the Middle East by force, taking the fight to Iran and its proxies with the help of the United States — despite pleas from the Biden administration for diplomacy. While President Biden is warning Israel against a major attack on Iran in retaliation for a missile barrage last week, Israel’s ambassador to the United States is warning “a long and arduous path” lies ahead. “Following the carnage of Oct. 7, all our enemies in the region and globally smelled the blood, sensed weakness and vulnerability and rose to hit us,” said Michael Herzog, Israel’s envoy in Washington, during a memorial ceremony Monday at the Israeli Embassy. “One year on, the story of this war is also of Israel rising to its feet, turning the tide, restoring its deterrence and dismantling the ring of fire that Iran has built around us.” The Israeli ambassador’s message was delivered in front of national security adviser Jake Sullivan, deputy national security adviser Jon Finer, and White House coordinator for the Middle East Brett McGurk — officials who were blindsided last month when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly rejected a cease-fire proposal with Hezbollah the White House had coordinated with Jerusalem behind closed doors. Since then, Israel has forged ahead with its plans to dismantle Hezbollah, weaken Iran and suppress Hamas in the Gaza Strip — largely without consulting the United States beforehand, but relying heavily on military and political support from Washington. “It must be said, we wouldn’t be where we are today were it not for the steadfast support of our close friend and ally the United States of America,” Herzog told the assembled diplomats, along with members of Congress from both sides of the aisle. The episode demonstrates how the Israeli government, under Netanyahu, is reframing its war aims toward a vision of long-lasting regional dominance. “This is our war of existence — ‘the war of redemption.’ This is how I would like the war to be called officially,” Netanyahu said during a Cabinet meeting on Monday. “We are changing the security reality in our region, for our children and for our future, in order to ensure that what happened on Oct. 7 does not recur. Never again.” While rocket fire still emanates from the Gaza Strip and Hamas holds 101 hostages it kidnapped from Israel on Oct. 7, the Israeli military has shifted operations to take on the threats from Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Israel estimates Hezbollah has fired 9,500 rockets into the country since Oct. 8, 2023, and considers the group its most dangerous, proximate adversary, with a well-stocked, organized and disciplined fighting force. But the exact goals of Israel’s operations against Hezbollah are not entirely clear. United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 calls, generally, for the absence of weapons between Israel’s northern border and Lebanon’s Litani River. But Netanyahu, in a speech Tuesday night, called for the Lebanese to “stand up and take their country back” from Hezbollah.

Report: US Considers Launching Airstrikes Against Iran To Support Israeli Attack - The US has discussed the idea of supporting Israel’s expected attack on Iran with intelligence or with airstrikes of its own, NBC News reported on Tuesday, citing two unnamed US officials.The report said senior US military officials have discussed launching “very limited” airstrikes against Iranian targets inside Iran or outside of the country, though the US officials said intelligence support for Israel was more likely.So far, no final decision on US action has been made, according to the report, and the US officials said Israel has not briefed the US on its specific plans to strike Iran in response to the Iranian missile barrage that hit Israel last week.Iran launched nearly 200 ballistic missiles into Israel in response to multiple Israeli escalations in the region, including the July 31 assassination of Hamas’s political chief, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran. In the aftermath, the US said it would work with Israel to ensure Iran faces “severe consequences” for the attack.The NBC report said US officials were worried that Israel could launch its attack while Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant is meeting with Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin at the Pentagon on Wednesday. However, after the report was published, Gallant’s trip to the US has been canceled.Israeli media said the trip was postponed because Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants to speak with President Biden and wants the Israeli security cabinet to agree on a plan to attack Iran before Gallant heads to Washington.The Israelis are considering several types of targets to hit in Iran: military and intelligence infrastructure, air defenses, and energy facilities. Based on media reports, Israel does not plan to strike Iranian nuclear facilities in its first attack, but could if Iran hits back and the situation turns into a full-blown war, which Israeli officials think is likely to happen.

Biden Holds Phone Call With Netanyahu On Iran Strike Plans After Gallant Trip Blocked --President Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are holding a crucial phone call Wednesday morning focused on Israel's plans to strike back at Iran for the Oct.1st ballistic missile attack, which saw some 200 warheads launched, many of which hit targets on the ground including key airbases.It marks the first call since Iran's attack, and also the first between the leaders in two months, and comes as Washington has signaled it is deeply worried that a bigger regional war could break out if Israel's retaliation goes too far. The call is scheduled for 10:30ET. NBC is reporting that Vice President Kamala Harris will join the call.The call comes amid some internal Israeli drama, given the open spat between Netanyahu and his Defense Minister. Netanyahu has forced Gallant to cancel a planned trip to Washington. It was set for Wednesday, and he was to meet with counterparts in the Pentagon about "ongoing Middle East security developments," a Pentagon statement had indicated."An Israeli official, who asked not to be identified discussing the decision, cited last-minute objections to the trip by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu," Bloomberg confirms."Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who has sparred with Netanyahu about the conduct of the yearlong war in Gaza and on other fronts, had been due to fly to Washington for talks," the report adds.And Axios has filled in some further details as follows:

• Netanyahu told Gallant his trip wouldn't be approved he had received a call from Biden and the Israeli security cabinet had approved the attack plans.
• The Biden-Netanyahu call was already scheduled before the flare-up between Netanyahu and Gallant, according to a source familiar with the issue.

As it stands, Biden is opposing both Israeli potential plans to strike nuclear facilities, and also energy sites such as oil and gas depots."A Netanyahu aide told Axios that once a decision was made, Netanyahu would want to brief Biden," Axios noted. Is the Wednesday call all about Bibi getting a final go ahead from the White House?

Biden, Harris Speak With Netanyahu To Discuss Attacking Iran - President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday to discuss Israel’s plans to attack Iran in retaliation for the Iranian missile barrage fired at Israel last week.Iran fired nearly 200 ballistic missiles at Israel in response to multiple Israeli escalations, including the assassination of Hamas’s political chief, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran. Israeli officials told Axios that Israel’s retaliation would likely involve airstrikes on Iranian military sites coupled with covert operations similar to the Haniyeh assassination.NBC News reported on Tuesday that the US was considering supporting Israel’s attack with direct airstrikes of its own, although US officials said intelligence support was more likely. The US has also committed to defending Israel from any Iranian response.The White House readout of Biden and Harris’s call with Netanyahu said Biden “affirmed his ironclad commitment to Israel’s security” and “condemned unequivocally Iran’s ballistic missile attack against Israel on October 1.”According to Axios, Netanyahu will meet with his security cabinet on Thursday to get approval for military action in Iran, which Israeli officials believe will likely lead to full-blown war. Iran has vowed it would respond to any Israeli attack.Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant was due to visit Washington on Wednesday, but his trip was postponed. According to Israeli media, Netanyahu wanted to speak with Biden and get approval from the security cabinet to attack Iran before Gallant’s trip.Gallant issued a threat to Iran on Wednesday, saying, “The Iranian attack was aggressive but inaccurate. In contrast, our attack will be deadly, pinpoint accurate, and most importantly, surprising — they will not know what happened or how it happened. They will just see the results.”

Harris says Iran is America's 'greatest adversary' -- Vice President Kamala Harris said she considers Iran to be America's "greatest adversary," in a new interview on the CBS show "60 Minutes Overtime." The Democratic presidential nominee's choice of Iran, rather than Russia or China, underscores how much the Mideast war has shifted U.S. foreign policy priorities. Speaking with "60 Minutes" correspondent Bill Whitaker, Harris was asked which nation she considers "to be our greatest adversary.""I think there's an obvious one in mind, which is Iran," Harris replied. "Iran has American blood on their hands. This attack on Israel, 200 ballistic missiles.""What we need to do to ensure that Iran never achieves the ability to be a nuclear power, that is one of my highest priorities," she added.Whitaker followed up, asking, "If Iran is building a nuclear weapon, would you take military action?""I'm not going to talk about hypotheticals at this moment," said the vice president.That Iran would be among America's primary adversaries is hardly a surprise. The Islamic Republic has been locked in an asymmetrical Cold War by proxy with the United States for more than 40 years. But the fact that, for Harris, concerns about Iran appear to have eclipsed those about China, Russia and North Korea, even briefly, is noteworthy.Iran's adversarial relationship with the United States, already set in stone, has been degraded further in the past year as military confrontations between Israel and Iran have expanded what was formerly localized operations into a regional Middle East war.Last month, Iran fired nearly 200 ballistic missiles at Israel in response to Israeli strikes on Lebanon that killed hundreds, including longtime Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. U.S. and Israeli armed forces intercepted the missiles.Global financial markets fell on fears that Israel could respond by striking Iranian oil facilities, a move that President Joe Bidendiscouraged in a press conference Friday.Former President Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Obama-era Iran Nuclear Deal in 2018, which had provided sanctions relief to Iran in exchange for limitations on its nuclear program. Iran is still formally part of the deal, but has not been honoring it since the reinstatement of U.S. sanctions under Trump.The Biden administration encouraged talks on reviving the deal in 2022. But they collapsed after the White House accusedTehran of providing lethal weapons and training to Russian forces invading Ukraine.In September, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said that Iran was ready to restart multilateral nuclear negotiations on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York. The White House reportedly signaled that the United States was not ready to resume nuclear talks with Iran.

Trump Says Israel Should Strike Iran's Nuclear Sites - Former President Donald Trump said on Friday that Israel should target Iran’s nuclear facilities, criticizing President Biden for saying he didn’t support such strikes. “They asked him, what do you think about Iran, would you hit Iran? And he goes, ‘As long as they don’t hit the nuclear stuff.’ That’s the thing you want to hit, right?” Trump said at a campaign event in Fayetteville, North Carolina. “I think he’s got that one wrong,” Trump added. “Isn’t that what you’re supposed to hit? I mean, it’s the biggest risk we have, nuclear weapons.”The former president also claimed that soon Iran will have nuclear weapons, but there’s no evidence Tehran is working to make a bomb, something that’s been acknowledged by US intelligence this year. Iran is a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and all of its nuclear facilities are for civilian purposes.In contrast, Israel is not a signatory to the NPT and has a secret nuclear weapons program that the US does not officially acknowledge. It’s estimated that Israel has somewhere between 90 and 300 nuclear warheads.Trump’s comments about Iran’s nuclear sites come as the world is anticipating an Israeli attack on Iran in retaliation for the Iranian missile barrage that was fired at Israel last week, which was a response to several Israeli escalations in the region.The US is closely coordinating with Israel on its plans to attack Iran and is expected to participate in some way, whether by sharing intelligence or more direct participation. Bide said the possibility of striking Iran’s oil infrastructure was being discussed, though he later cautioned against the idea. “If I were in their shoes, I’d be thinking about other alternatives than striking oil fields,” he said on Friday.

CIA Says No Evidence Iran Has Decided To Build a Nuclear Weapon - CIA Director William Burns said Monday that there’s no evidence Iran has decided to build nuclear weapons, comments that come amid calls in the US and Israel for strikes on Iranian nuclear sites.“No, we do not see evidence today that the supreme leader has reversed the decision that he took at the end of 2003 to suspend the weaponization program,” Burns told the Cipher Brief security conference, according toNBC News.In 2003, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued a fatwa prohibiting the development of nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction. His predecessor, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, also rejected the idea of starting a WMD program while facing chemical attacks from a US-backed Saddam Hussein during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s.Burns said that if Iran did move to make a nuclear weapon, US intelligence would likely be aware of the decision. “I think we are reasonably confident that — working with our friends and allies — we will be able to see it relatively early on,” he said.The CIA chief noted that Iran has increased uranium enrichment levels since the US withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal, known as the JCPOA, in 2018. Iran is enriching some uranium at 60%, which is still below the 90% needed for weapons-grade.Iran increased uranium enrichment to 60% in 2021 following an Israeli sabotage attack on Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility, which was timed to sabotage indirect negotiations between Washington and Tehran.Burns claimed Iran would only need one week to “produce one bomb’s worth of weapons-grade material,” but the NBC report noted most experts say it would take at least one year to build an actual nuclear warhead.

Report: US To Give Israel 'Compensation' If It Hits Only US-Approved Targets in Iran - --The US has offered Israel a “compensation package” if it avoids hitting certain targets in its planned attack on Iran, The Jerusalem Post reported Sunday, citing the Israeli TV channel Kan 11. Amichai Stein, a correspondent for Kan 11, said the package would include military aid and a guarantee that the US would provide total diplomatic support. “An American official said, ‘If you don’t hit targets A, B, C, we will provide you with diplomatic protection and an arms package,” Chair said. “Israeli officials responded saying, ‘We consider the United States and listen to them. But we will do anything and everything we can to protect the citizens and the security of the State of Israel.'”The US is coordinating with Israel on its plans to respond to the Iranian missile barrage that hit Israel last week, which came in response to several Israeli escalations throughout the region, including the July 31 assassination of Hamas’s political chief, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran.The US has said it will ensure Iran faces “severe consequences” but has warned against certain types of attacks, including attacks on Iran’s civilian nuclear facilities. President Biden said the US and Israel were discussing the idea of strikes on Iranian oil sites, but later said if he was in Israel’s shoes,he would be thinking about “other alternatives than striking oil fields.”Other attacks Israel is considering include strikes on Iran’s air defense systems or more targeted assassinations inside Iran. The US is expected to support the attack in some way, whether by providing intelligence or more direct support and is vowing to defend Israel from any Iranian retaliation.Any Israeli attack on Iran risks provoking a major war as Iran is vowing that Israel will face a harsher attack if it retaliates. On Friday, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that Iran and its allies in the region won’t back down in the face of Israeli attacks.

The role of Iran’s oil and gas in US war plans against China - The United States and Israel are on the brink of war with Iran. While the Biden administration has publicly stated that it does not want “escalation,” it has made clear that it will support Israel regardless of what Netanyahu does. Nearly every bomb dropped on Gaza and Lebanon was made in the US and given for free to Israel by the Biden-Harris administration. For Netanyahu, who faces multiple criminal indictments once he leaves office, this moment presents an opportunity to realize the long-held, grotesque ambitions of the Israeli ruling class: to destroy the Iranian regime through war. As the Financial Times warned this past weekend, “the chances of an Israeli attempt to topple the Iranian regime cannot be fully discounted.” The paper noted that last week Netanyahu declared, “When Iran is finally free—and that moment will come a lot sooner than people think—everything will be different.” The Trump faction of the American ruling class has expressed its full backing for such a war. Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and former Middle East adviser, wrote a long post on X arguing for Israel and the US to topple the Iranian regime. He stated, “Iran is now fully exposed. … Failing to take full advantage of this opportunity to neutralize the threat is irresponsible.” Though other sections of the ruling class have voiced concerns about the spiraling situation, the logic of their position—unconditional support for Israel’s actions—puts them on the same road toward war with Iran. The Democrats may have tactical differences with Trump about how to overthrow the Iranian regime but both salivate at the prospect of doing so. The removal of the Iranian regime, while a geopolitical end in itself for American imperialism, is also a critical steppingstone in its economic and military confrontation with its chief adversary: China. All factions of the American ruling class unconditionally support Israel because they know that controlling the resource-rich Middle East—and ending the Ayatollah’s power—will significantly increase their power and flexibility in a war with China. Iran is a large country, roughly the size of Spain, Ukraine and France combined. Eighty-nine million people live there. Compared to Iraq, its neighbor, which was invaded by the US in 2003, Iran has almost four times as many people and a far more sophisticated military and economy. Iran has a long history of colonial subjugation, including British control over its oil industry in the first half of the 20th century, the CIA-MI6 coup in 1953 to prevent the nationalization of its oil industry and several decades of bloody rule by the US-backed Shah. Everyone knows that Iran’s wealth primarily comes from its oil. Iran produces a little more than 3 million barrels of oil per day, about 3 percent of the world’s total. What is not as well understood, however, is the potential for Iran’s oil production to expand. Only three other countries in the world have larger reserves of commercially realistic oil (Saudi Arabia, Russia and Iraq). Additionally, Iran has the second-largest reserve of natural gas in the world after Russia. Oil and natural gas remain the energetic bedrock of the global economy. Despite efforts to promote new alternative energies, the “energy transition” under capitalism remains a half-hearted and contradictory affair. The principal concern of the US and Europe with their investment in EVs and critical minerals is not stopping global warming but ensuring their economic and geopolitical supremacy vis-à-vis China, which has excelled in this area. Fifty-seven percent of the world’s energy comes from oil and gas, another 27 percent from coal, and just 1 percent comes from solar, a record high. Given the enduring supremacy of oil and gas, countries holding large, cheap reserves of the commodity remain essential to geopolitical calculations. It is striking that Russia, Iraq and Iran—after Saudi Arabia—are the world’s largest holders of cheap oil reserves. Each country has been a principal target of US imperialism over the last quarter-century. The US invaded Iraq and is now on the brink of war with both Russia and Iran, the second and third largest holders of oil and gas reserves. What is more, each of them—partially due to being squeezed and sidelined by economic sanctions—has a relatively underdeveloped oil industry, deprived of vital streams of capital and advanced technology required for production. This is evident in the case of Iraq, where after the US’s brutal invasion, American and European oil companies significantly raised production, increasing output from 2 million to almost 5 million barrels per day today.It is important to stress that a key driver of US imperialism is the growing military and economic collision with China’s development. The US and its allies are fundamentally opposed to giving Chinese capitalism a “seat at the table” of the most advanced capitalist countries.For several decades, China served as the cheap goods platform for the world’s major companies. But due to its own internal development—particularly in education and more advanced manufacturing processes—China has now created domestically controlled industries that seriously challenge US and European companies.This is most obvious in the realm of automobiles, where Chinese EVs, advanced and cheaper than those of the US, have experienced rapid growth. In just a few years, China’s auto exports have gone from being a small fraction of those of Japan, the US and Germany to now overtaking all of them.

Israel Jails American Journalist for Reporting on Iranian Missile Strikes - Jeremy Loffredo, an American journalist for The Grayzone, has been arrested by the Israeli military for his reporting inside Israel.Loffredo was jailed just a few days after releasing a report on Iranian missile strikes in Israel, information the Israeli military has been trying to censor. According to the Israeli news site Ynet, because of the report, Loffredo faces charges of “aiding the enemy during wartime and providing information to the enemy.” Representatives from the US embassy attended a hearing on a police request to extend Loffredo’s detention, but so far, the US government has been silent and has not publicly called for his release.The report Loffredo released before being arrested by the Israeli military“Israel is detaining and prosecuting an American journalist for doing journalism. Will his media colleagues defend him?” Aaron Maté, a journalist for The Grayzone, wrote on X.An independent journalist who was arrested alongside Loffredo but has since been released said they were beaten and blindfolded by the Israeli military.“Today I was beaten, kidnapped, blindfolded and taken to a military base by the Israeli Occupation Forces, together with 4 other journalists,” the journalist, Andrey X, wrote on X. “Two of us were held for 11 hours without charges, my phone was confiscated (stolen), and one of us is still in custody.”British journalist Kit Klarenberg, a contributor to The Grayzone, is asking people to contact the US embassy in Israel (JerusalemACS@state.gov) and urge pressure on the Israeli government to release Loffredo.

Israeli Snipers Routinely, Deliberately Shoot Palestinian Kids In The Head - Caitlin Johnstone -- There’s yet another doctor testimonial about Israeli forces constantly shooting Palestinian children in the head, this one published in The New York Times. The report, titled “65 Doctors, Nurses and Paramedics: What We Saw in Gaza,” begins as follows:“I worked as a trauma surgeon in Gaza from March 25 to April 8. I’ve volunteered in Ukraine and Haiti, and I grew up in Flint, Mich. I’ve seen violence and worked in conflict zones. But of the many things that stood out about working in a hospital in Gaza, one got to me: Nearly every day I was there, I saw a new young child who had been shot in the head or the chest, virtually all of whom went on to die. Thirteen in total.   “At the time, I assumed this had to be the work of a particularly sadistic soldier located nearby. But after returning home, I met an emergency medicine physician who had worked in a different hospital in Gaza two months before me. ‘I couldn’t believe the number of kids I saw shot in the head,’ I told him. To my surprise, he responded: ‘Yeah, me, too. Every single day.’” Numerous named medical staff who worked in Gaza then testify in the report about routine encounters with children who’d been shot in the head and chest by Israeli forces, as well as children and infants suffering from severe malnutrition and easily preventable infections.Such reports have been coming out all year. Because Israel has not been allowing foreign press into Gaza, medical staff have in many ways become the de facto western journalists on the ground in the enclave — and they are all saying the same thing. Back in July a group of 45 doctors and nurses who’d been working in Gazasigned an open letter to President Biden testifying that “every single signatory to this letter treated children in Gaza who suffered violence that must have been deliberately directed at them.” “Specifically, every one of us on a daily basis treated pre-teen children who were shot in the head and chest,” the letter continues. Also in July, Politico published an article by two American surgeons named Mark Perlmutter and Feroze Sidhwa titled “‘Nothing Prepared Us for What We Saw’: Two Weeks Inside a Gaza Hospital,” which contains the following passage:“We started seeing a series of children, preteens mostly, who’d been shot in the head. They’d go on to slowly die, only to be replaced by new victims who’d also been shot in the head, and who would also go on to slowly die. Their families told us one of two stories: the children were playing inside when they were shot by Israeli forces, or they were playing in the street when they were shot by Israeli forces.” In April an article titled “‘Not a normal war’: doctors say children have been targeted by Israeli snipers in Gaza” was published in The Guardian, citing nine doctors who’d worked in Gaza after October 7 who “reported treating a steady stream of children, elderly people and others who were clearly not combatants with single bullet wounds to the head or chest.”Forensic pathologists were able to identify bullets used by the Israeli military in these attacks on children:“The Guardian shared descriptions and images of gunshot wounds suffered by eight children with military experts and forensic pathologists. They said it was difficult to conclusively determine the circumstances of the shootings based on the descriptions and photos alone, although in some of the cases they were able to identify ammunition used by the Israeli military.”In February the Los Angeles Times published an article titled “I’m an American doctor who went to Gaza. What I saw wasn’t war — it was annihilation”. The author, a reconstructive surgeon named Irfan Galaria, writes as follows:“On one occasion, a handful of children, all about ages 5 to 8, were carried to the emergency room by their parents. All had single sniper shots to the head. These families were returning to their homes in Khan Yunis, about 2.5 miles away from the hospital, after Israeli tanks had withdrawn. But the snipers apparently stayed behind. None of these children survived.”

It's So, So Bad, And It's About To Get A Whole Lot Worse - Caitlin Johnstone -- Things are so, so bad in the middle east right now, and from the looks of things they’re about to get a whole lot worse. Israel is going full scorched-earth on northern Gaza in advancement of itslong-planned ethnic cleansing of the area. The IDF is besieging and attacking civilian populations throughout the north, and the UN World Food Programme reports that no food aid whatsoever has been allowed in so far this month.Hossam Shabat, one of the last remaining journalists in northern Gaza, reports the following on Twitter:“The Israeli occupation has besieged us in this area, which includes Beit Hanoun, Beit Lahia, and the Jabalia refugee camp, for the past eight days. Since October 1st, they have stopped all food, water, and medical supplies from entering. They have threatened hospitals to shut down, stopped fuel from entering in order for hospitals to operate, and are targeting anyone who moves. So far, 400 people have been killed. People are bleeding in the streets, and we can’t reach them.”Another post from Shabat:“Due to the Israeli occupation siege on Jabalia camp, most injuries caused by the occupation’s bullets and shelling lead to death, as there are no medical resources or capabilities available to effectively treat the wounded.”Another post, the most recent as of this writing:“We are literally living our final moments. O Allah, grant us a good end.”The western media have been working fanatically to facilitate these atrocities.     A CNN report on the World Food Programme’s findings titled “UN says no food has entered northern Gaza since start of October, putting 1 million people at risk of starvation” does not mention the word “Israel” until the twelfth paragraph, and then somehow manages to go the entire rest of the article without making it clear that Israel is blocking the food.  A BBC report describes Israel’s policy of laying total siege to a population of hundreds of thousands of civilians as merely “controversial”, with an amazingly delicate headline that reads “‘Surrender or starve’: Attack on Jabalia hints at controversial Israeli plan for northern Gaza”. In a recent interview on CNN, a doctor who worked in Gaza for two weekscorrected CNN anchor Kate Bolduan for absurdly referring to the results of Israel’s war crimes as a “humanitarian crisis”, saying “This is not a humanitarian crisis, Kate, and I’m gonna say it very clearly for your viewers to hear: this is genocide.”   In southern Lebanon, Israel has been deliberately targeting healthcare facilities so extensively that nearly half of the medical centers in areas of conflict have already been closed. More UN peacekeepers have been wounded by Israeli fire as Israel continues to deliberately target staff from the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon. The Israeli military is now saying they’re going to start attacking ambulances because the ambulances are Hezbollah. And as horrifying as both these developing stories are, they’re going to be shifted to the back burner as soon as Israel begins its planned attack on Iran. As we discussed previously, Iran has already said it will respond to any further attacks by Israel with attacks of its own, and that its days of restraint in this stand-off are over.The US now reportedly has boots on the ground in Israel, with American troops set to operate the THAAD anti-ballistic missile systems that are being sent by Israel’s superpower ally. It seems inevitable that the US will become further and further involved in this conflict the more Israel escalates against Iran, and nobody in the White House seems particularly invested in preventing it from doing so. And of course the mass media are helping to pave the way toward this next war as well. The Washington Post has published unverified documents that were given to them by the Israeli military which purport to show Hamas plotting to petition Iran for assistance in the October 7 attack, admitting all the way down in paragraph 14 that “the documents’ authenticity could not be definitively established.” The New York Times published its own report on the documents, which it claims it “verified” by asking the Israeli military and some Palestinian sources who aren’t even in Gaza if they appeared authentic.

US Thought Risk of Russia Using a Nuclear Weapon Was at 50% in 2022, New Woodward Book Says - US intelligence determined in September 2022 that there was a 50% chance of Russia using a nuclear weapon in Ukraine, a new book by journalist Bob Woodward alleges, The Associated Press reported Wednesday.According to the book, titled “War,” the warning came in late September 2022, with US intelligence believing Russia could use a nuke if its forces were surrounded in Kherson City. Russia withdrew from the city not long after, in November 2022.The book says the warning caused alarm within the Biden administration as it moved the chance of Russia using a nuclear weapon from 5% or 10% way up to 50%. Around the same time, President Biden said publicly that the risk of nuclear “armageddon” was higher than it had been at any time since the Cuban Missile Crisis.“I don’t think there is any such a thing as the ability to easily use a tactical nuclear weapon and not end up with Armageddon,” Biden told donors at a fundraiser in New York City in October 2022. “We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban Missile Crisis.”Despite the huge risk of nuclear war, Biden did not alter course on US involvement in the proxy war, which has only escalated since then. The Woodward book says that the US issued several warnings and threats on the potential consequences of what could happen if Russia used a nuclear weapon in Ukraine.Woodward says that Biden told National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan to “get on the line with the Russians. Tell them what we will do in response.” In September 2022, Sullivan said publicly that Russia would suffer “catastrophic consequences” if it used a nuke and said the US conveyed that in private conversations. A few months later, The Wall Street Journalreported that Sullivan had been holding secret talks with Russian officials.The Woodward book says that Biden also sent a message to Putin that there would be “catastrophic consequences” if a nuke was used, but there has been no known contact between Biden and the Russian leader since Russia launched its invasion in February 2022.The book also says that when Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin spoke with then-Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu in October 2022, he warned, “Any use of nuclear weapons on any scale against anybody would be seen by the United States and the world as a world-changing event. There is no scale of nuclear weapons that we could overlook or that the world could overlook.”The risk of the Ukraine proxy war turning nuclear is still very high as Putin has ordered changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine in direct response to threats of escalation from the West, specifically the idea of the US and NATO supporting long-range strikes inside Russian territory. The US appeared poised to sign off on the long-range strikes but seems to have backed down, at least for now.

Russia Blasts Kamala Harris For 'Outrageous, Boorish' Remarks On Putin -- Russia has blasted the "outrageous" remarks of US Vice President Kamala Harris when talking about President Vladimir Putin during a Howard Stern interview aired live on SiriusXM radio.In the Tuesday show she called Putin a "murderous dictator". If she's elected the remarks are unlikely to ever be forgotten by the Russian side, making the possibility of improved diplomacy extremely difficult, and perhaps that's the point.The Russian Embassy in Washington has issued official statement Wednesday: "The recent unacceptable statements made by US Vice-President Kamala Harris towards Russian President Vladimir Putin are outrageous. However, we have to admit that such a boorish language has become a habit among the current so-called American statesmen," it reads."It only shows the frustration and impotence of the ruling circles in Washington. Due to their inability to deal with the Russian Federation and inflicting 'a strategic defeat,' their speech apparatus channels anger and offensive rhetoric," the embassy continued."The US authorities should come to terms with the fact that Russia is pursuing a policy based on its national interests. Such US escapades insult the entire Russian people, who demonstrate unwavering unity around the leader of our country," the statement underscored.Harris during the Stern interview was responding to questions raised about journalist Bob Woodward's new book, which bizarrely alleges that during the height of the Covid pandemic then President Trump secretly sent coronavirus tests to Putin as a gesture of good will.This action, even if true (the Trump campaign has slammed it as a falsehood), hardly rises to the level of a national scandal. But of course, the Democrats are trying to spin the allegations, or what essentially appears meager Trump efforts to improve diplomacy with Moscow, into big headlines."He admires strongmen, and he gets played by them because he thinks that they’re his friends," Harris said. "And they are manipulating him full time."

Trump-Putin ties face fresh scrutiny with Woodward book -- Less than a month before the U.S. presidential election, former President Trump is facing fresh scrutiny on his relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin. A bombshell book by celebrated journalist Bob Woodward, previewed this week by multiple outlets, revealed the two have secretly been in touch over the last few years, speaking at least seven times since Trump left office. The book also claimed that while still in office, the Republican nominee sent COVID-19 testing equipment to Putin in the early days of the pandemic. The revelations, denied by the Trump team and partly confirmed by the Kremlin, have raised new questions into the nature and legality of the relationship between the two men, one of whom is an avowed adversary of the United States. The criticism came quickly from current and former Biden administration officials and lawmakers. White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said the administration was “not aware” of calls between Trump and Putin and could not confirm if they had taken place, but if the claims are true, the administration would have “serious concerns.” “It is concerning, especially when we know the former president was lobbying against more aid for Ukraine … to defend themselves against Russia,” Jean-Pierre said in a Wednesday press briefing. “We’re talking about President Putin here. We see what’s happening in Ukraine, Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, that’s about democracy, that’s about Ukrainians fighting for their freedom,” she added later. Wendy Sherman, former deputy secretary of state under Biden from 2021 to 2023, called Trump’s alleged conversations with Putin “disloyal” to the U.S. “Clearly [Trump] works for Vladimir Putin; not for the American people. Dangerous, outrageous, disloyal, disqualifying,” she wrote on the social platform X. Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), meanwhile, said former presidents “shouldn’t be calling foreign leaders, especially when they are our adversaries,” calling it “incredibly concerning.” “Putin is a guy who illegally attacked our ally, Ukraine, who is intentionally committing war crimes within Ukraine, and the former president has some sort of special relationship,” Kelly said Wednesday on CNN. “I think it highlights the risk involved in putting Donald Trump back into the White House as commander in chief.” Former White House adviser and United Nations Ambassador Susan Rice suggested such calls would violate the Logan Act, which makes it illegal for American citizens to negotiate with foreign governments in dispute with the United States without prior approval. The statute is meant to prevent unauthorized diplomacy from undermining the current administration’s position.

Kamala Harris Admits She Won't Do Anything Different From Biden -- In her first live appearance on… anything besides the debate, Kamala Harris again floundered and handed the Trump campaign a huge gift.Harris appeared on The View, obviously expecting a completely easy ride. But somehow she even managed to look bad here too. Harris was asked if she would change any one thing Biden had done as president, and she actually said that she couldn’t think of anything AT ALL.“There is not a thing that comes to mind. And I’ve been a part of most of the decisions that have had an impact,” she answered.But it was even worse than this sounds.Harris was also asked “What do you think would be the biggest specific difference between your presidency and a Biden presidency?”Harris responded, “We’re obviously two different people.”Oh really? She continued, “but we have a lot of shared life experiences, for example, the way we feel about our family and parents and so on, but we’re also different people. I will bring those sensibilities to how I lead.” What? What does that even mean?

More than 13,000 immigrants convicted of homicide are living outside immigration detention in the U.S., ICE says – NBC News --More than 13,000 immigrants convicted of homicide — either in the United States or abroad — are living outside of Immigration and Customs Enforcement detention, according to data ICE provided to Congress earlier this week.The immigrants are part of ICE’s “non-detained” docket, meaning the agency has some information on the immigrants and they have pending immigration cases in the U.S., but they are not currently in detention either because they are not prioritized for detention, they are serving time in a jail or prison for their crimes, or because ICE cannot find them, three law enforcement officials said.Two of the officials said it is not known how many are incarcerated because ICE is not always privy to that data from state and local law enforcement agencies.Acting ICE Director P.J. Lechleitner sent the data, collected as of July 21, as part of a request sent in March from Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales of Texas.A spokesman for the Department of Homeland Security said the data sent to Gonzales is being misinterpreted, and goes back four decades, long before the Biden administration. It is not clear when the first migrant of the 13,000 crossed into the U.S. Two law enforcement officials familiar with the data told NBC News many of the migrants on ICE’s non-detained docket, including serious criminals, crossed into the U.S. under previous administrations, including that of former President Donald Trump.A high number of non-detained immigrants with criminal convictions is not new, though it has grown in recent years. A 2016 DHS Inspector General's report found there were 368,000 criminal immigrants who were not detained by ICE. According to ICE's fiscal year 2023 budget justification, there were 405,786 convicted criminal immigrants on the non-detained docket as of June 5, 2021, just under five months after Trump left office, indicating many crossed during the Trump administration. As of July of this year, according to the data provided by ICE to Rep. Gonzales, over 435,719 convicted criminal immigrants were on ICE's non-detained docket.A DHS spokesman told NBC News in a statement: "The data in this letter is being misinterpreted. The data goes back decades; it includes people who entered the country over the past 40 year or more, the vast majority of whose custody determination was made long before this administration. It also includes many who are under the jurisdiction or currently incarcerated by federal, state or local law enforcement partners."During a campaign stop in Michigan on Friday, Trump used the data to criticize Vice President Kamala Harris for current immigration policies.“I can finally look at them and say ‘I told you so’ to the fake news,” Trump said. “These are hard, tough, vicious criminals that are free to roam in our country.”

Jean-Pierre says ICE data showing 13,000 illegal immigrant murder convicts are in US is 'confusing' Americans - -White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre was pressed by Fox News' senior White House correspondent Peter Doocy on the news that tens of thousands of illegal immigrants in the U.S. have serious criminal records.Jean-Pierre responded to the line of questioning about the Border Patrol numbers by claiming it was a "false representation of the data."Doocy said, "13,000 people who have been convicted of murder across the border illegally and are living among us. So how much danger are U.S. communities in right now?" "I think it's important to correct the record here," she responded. "It's been fact-checked by some of your colleagues here, by multiple outlets. That has been debunked on what has been falsely misrepresented, misrepresented here. So we have to call that out." White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre addressed data that 13,000 noncitizens facing deportations have homicide convictions.Doocy responded, "Can you clarify what the misrepresentation is?" Jean-Pierre responded, "If we're going to report something, data that's out there, we got to do it in a way that is not confusing the American people and certainly not lying.""If you look at the total returns and removal of the past year, that has been higher than every year under the previous administration since 2010," she said, reiterating claims the story has been fact-checked and falsely represented. New data released to Republican lawmakers showed the number of noncitizens who have final orders of removal or are going through removal proceedings but are not in ICE custody. Out of 7.4 million people on that docket, 425,431 are convicted criminals and 222,141 have pending criminal charges. In the latest data, the criminal records included 62,231 convicted of assault, 14,301 convicted of burglary, 56,533 with drug convictions and 13,099 convicted of homicide. An additional 2,521 have kidnapping convictions, and 15,811 have sexual assault convictions. There are an additional 1,845 with pending homicide charges, 42,915 with assault charges, 3,266 with burglary charges and 4,250 with assault charges.The Department of Homeland Security released a statement pushing back on the figures, stating, "[The data] includes individuals who entered the country over the past 40 years or more... It also includes many who are under the jurisdiction or currently incarcerated by federal, state or local law enforcement partners."

Trump, Vance Wrong About 'Illegal Immigrant Murderers' - FactCheck.org -- In campaign appearances over the weekend in the swing state of Pennsylvania, former President Donald Trump and his running mate, Sen. JD Vance, falsely accused Vice President Kamala Harris of letting more than 13,000 “illegal immigrant murderers” into the United States.It’s true that there were 13,099 noncitizens convicted of murder, as of July 21, who were not being detained by the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement.But the “vast majority” of them entered the country prior to the Biden administration and had their custody status determined “long before this Administration,” the Department of Homeland Security said in a statement, noting that many were in prison. Also, the noncitizens include those who entered the country legally, such as green-card holders.Trump and Vance distorted the contents of a Sept. 25 letter that Patrick Lechleitner, the acting director of ICE, sent to Rep. Tony Gonzales. The Republican congressman had requested the number of noncitizens who had committed a crime but were not in ICE custody — a list known as the agency’s non-detained docket.Lechleitner’s response included a chart that showed there are 13,099 noncitizens convicted of murder who were not being detained by ICE. Homeland Security later clarified in its statement that “many” are in prisons, although it did not tell us how many are incarcerated when we inquired.Gonzales posted Lechleitner’s letter to X on Sept. 27. The next day, Vance referenced the 13,099 murderers at a campaign event in Newtown, Pennsylvania, and Trump did the same in Prairie du Chien, Wisconsin. A day later, Trump repeated the claim in Erie, Pennsylvania.

• Vance, Sept. 28: Do you know that there are 13,000 — I know some of you are nodding because some of you saw this — 13,000 illegal immigrant murderers in the United States of America right now. They’re in this country because Kamala Harris let them in this country.
• Trump, Sept. 29: During her term, it’s not even believable, she let in 13,099 convicted murderers. Some of them had murdered 10 people, some murdered seven. One murdered six.

In its statement, the Department of Homeland Security said data in Lechleitner’s letter had been “misinterpreted.”“The data goes back decades; it includes individuals who entered the country over the past 40 years or more, the vast majority of whose custody determination was made long before this Administration,” the statement said. “It also includes many who are under the jurisdiction or currently incarcerated by federal, state or local law enforcement partners.”Similarly, Michelle Mittelstadt, director of communications for the nonpartisan Migration Policy Institute, told us that people have been on the non-detained docket “for decades.” “There is a lot of confusion around the non-detained docket,” including “who is on it and how long they’ve been on it,” Mittelstadt said in an email. “This docket has grown under multiple administrations, including the Trump one. Significant numbers of people on the docket have been on it for decades.”For example, the ICE acting director said in his letter that there are 425,431 convicted criminals on the agency’s non-detained docket as of July 21. But, as Mittelstadt noted, ICE reported in a budget document “that there were 405,786 convicted criminal noncitizens on the non-detained docket in June 2021 – so the vast majority would have gotten on during the prior administrations as the Biden administration by then was just five months old.” The number of people on the docket has increased by nearly 5% in about three years.She also told us that “the non-detained docket includes not just unauthorized immigrants but green-card holders and noncitizens on long-term non-immigrant visas who have made themselves removable by virtue of a criminal conviction.”The ICE letter to Gonzales did show that, as of July 21, there were an additional 1,845 noncitizens on the non-detained docket who face murder charges. But, again, we don’t know when those 1,845 people entered the United States, how many of them may have entered illegally and when they committed their alleged crimes. We also do not know if they are being held by other local, state or federal law enforcement agencies. A Homeland Security spokesperson did not respond when we asked for such information.

A GOP rep asked ICE for an update. Then Trump ran with the number -- A previously obscure immigration dataset entered the public lexicon over the past week, sparking a new attack line for Republicans and a deluge of fact-checking over an accurate, yet decontextualized, number. Last week, Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas) drew attention to the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) “non-detained docket,” one of the datasets that, for most people, is not just a few clicks away. “I asked [acting ICE Director Patrick Lechleitner], one, how many criminal aliens are in this country? What I mean by that, I’m not talking about your abuelita that came over years ago and may or may not be documented. I’m not talking about the guy that’s maybe building a house, or none of that, or 8-year-old — I’m talking about convicted criminal aliens. That’s what I’m talking about. That was the number I asked him. At the time he goes, ‘Tony it’s a lot,’” Gonzales told The Hill. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) publishes massive amounts of data, both on immigration and on border enforcement, though some databases are kept under wraps. “There has been extensive effort in the transparency community to get the U.S. government to produce more data about its operations, and the amount of information available about the immigration enforcement system today is unprecedented. Much of this is data that the U.S. government has had for generations but has not shared with the general public,” said Aaron Reichlin-Melnick, a senior fellow at the American Immigration Council. Lechleitner opened up the books and sent Gonzales a letter with ICE criminal detainee numbers and the non-detained docket, an accounting of foreign nationals convicted of criminal charges or pending criminal charges who are known to be or have been in the United States and who are not in ICE detention. The raw numbers shocked Gonzales, who made the letter public. ICE’s non-detained docket reports more than 600,000 alleged or convicted foreign-national criminals likely in the United States and not in ICE detention, including about 13,000 convicted murderers. Former President Trump quickly grasped on that figure, claiming his election rival Vice President Harris was responsible for releasing 13,000 murderers onto the streets. “In total during her term, it’s not even believable, she let in 13,099 convicted murderers. Some of them had murdered 10 people, some murdered seven, one murdered six. I’m looking at these. These are stone-cold killers, and they let in people that are worse than any criminal we have,” Trump said at a rally in Erie, Pa., last weekend. Trump’s representation of the numbers was wrong: The vast majority of the non-detained docket has built up over decades, and it includes any deportable foreign national in the criminal justice system not in ICE custody, including criminals in jails and prisons. “It’s not just disingenuous. It’s an intentional misuse of information in order to further the dehumanization that we’ve seen cause so much harm and violence over the past few weeks. So it’s not accidental,” said Heidi Altman, director of federal advocacy at the National Immigration Law Center. So who is on the docket? It’s complicated, say experts. “We can’t know for certain, because they haven’t given out that information, but someone like [Joaquín] Chapo Guzman, so long as he had had an interaction with ICE while in the United States, which seems likely, he will probably be on ICE’s non-detained docket, because he is a non-citizen who is removable, who is not detained by ICE,” said Reichlin-Melnick. “Zacarias Moussaoui, sometimes called the 20th [9/11] hijacker, who’s been in federal detention since 2001 and is currently serving a life sentence at ADX Florence, the supermax prison in Colorado. He’s probably on ICE’s non-detained docket. Richard Reed, the British shoe bomber, the guy responsible for us having to take our shoes off at TSA. He is a removable non-citizen who is also serving a life sentence in Colorado. He also is probably on ICE’s non detained docket as a British citizen.” The docket is also likely to include people who have left the United States, and it includes any foreign nationals with a record, including those released after serving criminal sentences, who either interacted with ICE or left the country and returned. Not all crimes render all foreign nationals deportable, but in some cases decades-old citations or minor convictions have landed unsuspecting permanent residents in hot water with ICE — those permanent residents would count toward the docket shared in Lechleitner’s letter. “They just didn’t give any sense of time frame here. And I think that is a little bit suspect, knowing full well how this would play in our polarized media climate, that they would just put that out without any context. It’s just troubling,” said Adam Isaacson, director for defense oversight at the Washington Office on Latin America. In the aftermath of Gonzales’s publication of the letter, DHS issued a statement delineating some of that context. “The data in this letter is being misinterpreted. The data goes back decades; it includes individuals who entered the country over the past 40 years or more, the vast majority of whose custody determination was made long before this administration. It also includes many who are under the jurisdiction or currently incarcerated by federal, state or local law enforcement partners,” said Luis Miranda, a DHS spokesperson.

"Lawless Narco-State": Mexican Mayor Decapitated Just Six Days Into Office - The severed head of a newly elected mayor in southern Mexico was found on top of his vehicle just six days into his tenure. Footage of the gruesome scene was shared on X, highlighting Mexico as a lawless narco-state run by ultra-violent cartels. On Sept. 30, Alejandro Arcos was sworn in as the mayor of Chilpancingo, the capital and second-largest city of the Mexican state of Guerrero. The newly elected mayor didn't even last a week because, on Sunday, he was assassinated, with his head severed and placed on the top of the vehicle as a reminder to local government officials that cartels run the show. Arcos represented an opposition coalition that included the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI). His party took to social media, calling the assassination of the mayor a "cowardly crime." PRI called for justice early this week. "Enough of violence and impunity! The people of Guerrero do not deserve to live in fear," PRI wrote on X. Just three days before Arcos' killing, another city official, Francisco Tapia, was killed, according to PRI president Alejandro Moreno. "They had been in office less than a week," Moreno wrote on social media, adding, "They were young and honest public servants who were seeking progress for their community."

Mexico president rules out new 'war on drugs' - Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum on Tuesday ruled out launching a new war against drug cartels, as she presented a national security plan aimed at reducing raging criminal violence. Sheinbaum, the first woman to lead the Latin American nation, said her government would prioritize tackling the root causes of crime, as well as making better use of intelligence. "The war on drugs will not return," the leftist president told a news conference, referring to an offensive launched in 2006 involving the military and supported by the United States. Since then, a spiral of criminal violence has left more than 450,000 people dead and tens of thousands missing. Sheinbaum, a former Mexico City mayor who was sworn in on October 1, pledged to stick to her predecessor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's "hugs not bullets" strategy of using social policy to address the causes of crime. "We are not looking for extrajudicial executions, which is what was happening before. What are we going to use? Prevention, attention to the causes, intelligence and presence" of authorities, she said. While Lopez Obrador prioritized prevention over force, he controversially put the National Guard under the control of the armed forces. Critics said the move marked another step toward the militarization of the country -- a claim that both Lopez Obrador and his ally Sheinbaum have denied. "There are families that today do not have access to reliable municipal police or to a fully strengthened state police force. That's where the National Guard will play an important role," Sheinbaum's public security minister, Omar Garcia Harfuch, said. Sheinbaum outlined her strategy amid shock over the murder and reported beheading on Sunday of Alejandro Arco, mayor of the capital of the violent southern state of Guerrero. Meanwhile, in the northwestern cartel stronghold of Sinaloa, bloodshed blamed on gang infighting has left more than 150 people dead in a month, while violence has spiked in Guanajuato and Chiapas states.

Karine Jean Pierre, Fox News' Peter Doocy spar over Helene response - White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and Fox News reporter Peter Doocy sparred Monday over the Biden administration’s response to the damage and destruction wrought by Hurricane Helene. “President Biden is fond of saying ‘Show me your budget and I can tell you what you value.’ If he’s got money for people in Lebanon, what does it say about his if there is not enough money for people in North Carolina?” Doocy asked during Monday’s briefing.“Your whole premise of your question is misinformation, sir,” Jean-Pierre shot back. “I just mentioned to you that we provided more than $200 million to folks who are impacted in the area,” noting she was talking about the Small Business Administration disaster loan.“That’s money for people in North Carolina,” Doocy insisted. “They’re the ones saying it’s running out.”“Peter, this is nothing new,” she responded. “Congress comes together, they provide money — millions of dollars — for disaster relief.” Doocy referenced a recent letter from Biden to congressional leaders asking for them to return from recess to approve more funding for hurricane relief efforts, asking the press secretary of Biden’s letter directly “that’s not misinformation is it, yes or no?”“No, the way you’re asking me the question is misinformation,” she responded. “There is money we are allocating to the impacted areas.”“You can’t call a question you don’t like misinformation,” Doocy shot back.“No, what we’re asking Congress to do is come back and do their job,” Jean-Pierre said, picking up a large binder from the podium and beginning to leave. “You may not want that, but that’s OK. That’s what this president wants, and that’s what the vice president wants. Thanks everybody.”Former President Trump has made the federal government’s response to Helene an issue on the campaign trail, claiming the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is “going out of their way to not help people in Republican areas” and that Vice President Harris, his opponent in next month’s presidential election, “spent all her FEMA money, billions of dollars, on housing for illegal migrants.”

DeSantis rips Harris again for butting into Milton response: 'No role in this process' - -Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis briefed President Biden on the fallout from Hurricane Milton Thursday morning while hammering Vice President Kamala Harris once again over her swipe at him for not taking her call earlier this week. The Sunshine State governor chided that Harris “doesn’t understand what it means to respond to these natural disasters,” and again accused her of politicizing the crisis. “She has no role in this process. And I’ve been dealing with these storms in Florida under both [former President Donald] Trump and [President] Biden. Neither of them ever politicized it,” DeSantis told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” hours after Milton made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane. “In fact [during] all of the storms I dealt with under this administration, although I worked well with the president, she has never called … She has never offered any support,” the Republican emphasized. “She’s trying to inject herself into this because of her political campaign.” Earlier this week, multiple reports emerged that DeSantis’ staff had turned down an attempt by Harris to reach him late last month in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene making landfall Sept. 26. When pressed about those reports on Monday, Harris, 59, attacked DeSantis, 46, without using his name. “People are in desperate need of support right now and playing political games at this moment in these crisis situations — these are the height of emergency situations — is utterly irresponsible and it is selfish,” she told reporters. DeSantis has insisted he had no knowledge of the veep’s initial attempts to reach him. “I don’t have time for those games,” he said Thursday. “I don’t care about her campaign, obviously I’m not a supporter of hers. “For her to say that my focus should be on catering to her rather than worrying about my own people just shows she doesn’t understand what it means to respond to these natural disasters.”

DeSantis rips Wall Street analysis over Milton assessment - - Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, discussing Hurricane Milton at a Thursday press conference, called out a Wall Street analyst who predicted the storm would cost the state $50 billion. The Republican was responding to a question from a reporter who asked if the state had any sort of plans for the predicted losses from the storm.“How the hell would a Wall Street analyst be able to know? It’s been dark all day. What, you’re just going to know that you’re going to do? I mean, like, give me a break on some of this stuff,” DeSantis said.He then pointed to the “negative storm surge” in some areas off Florida’s coast where water was sucked out of the bay instead of producing a huge storm surge.“I’m not saying there’s not going to be damage, there will be,” the governor said. “It cut across the state in a way that Helene did not.”DeSantis added that he doesn’t think the state will see the same kind of damage that it experienced with Hurricane Ian in 2022.“So, we’ll see. There’ll be a lot more that’ll need to be done to assess the extent of the damage, but what I think we can say is we have a lot of resources in play here in Florida,” he said.CNBC earlier this week cited an analysis that put estimated damages at a cost of $50 billion or even $175 billion in a worst-case scenario. “While too early to make insured loss estimates, a major hurricane impact in one of Florida’s most heavily populated regions could result in mid-double-digit billion dollar loss,” Jefferies equity analyst Yaron Kinar and others wrote in a note reported by CNBC. “A 1-in-100 year event is estimated by some to result in $175 [billion] in losses for landfall in the Tampa region, and $70 [billion] in losses in the [Fort] Myers region.”The worst-case scenario of a heavy storm with a huge storm surge making a direct hit on Tampa did not come to pass with Milton.

White House 'in touch' with airlines as hurricanes Helene, Milton spark price-gouging fears --The Department of Transportation said Tuesday it is in contact with airlines about the affordability of their flights in areas hit by Hurricane Helene and those bracing for Hurricane Milton, as concerns about price gouging grow."DOT officials have been in touch with airlines to get more information about the capacity and affordability of flights in the affected areas," a DOT spokesperson told CNBC in a statement. It is typical for the alarm around price gouging to grow louder in disasters such as hurricanes, when demand spikes from consumers scrambling for items such as last-minute flights and survival supplies.Price gouging is the practice of retailers artificially inflating prices dramatically when the retailer's costs have not increased. In times of crisis, when urgent demand vastly outpaces supply, consumers can be especially vulnerable to price gouging.Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said in a Monday post on social media platform X that his agency was "keeping a close eye on flights in and out of areas affected by Hurricane Milton to make sure airlines are not charging excessively increasing fares.""The Department takes all allegations of airline price-gouging seriously," he added.Florida is preparing for Hurricane Milton to make landfall on its western coast Wednesday, deepening the wounds left by the devastation of Hurricane Helene, which ravaged the southeastern U.S. about a week earlier.In areas where Milton is expected to have the worst impact, local officials have urged residents — and in some cases ordered them — to evacuate.Flights in and out of Tampa International Airport have been suspended since Tuesday morning. The nearby Orlando International Airport plans to suspend operations at 8 a.m. ET on Wednesday.American Airlines and United Airlines have added flights to help get people out of the area. American also said it protectively capped fares on flights for certain Florida airports.Nonetheless, demand for airline tickets and other goods has shot up and spiked some prices, compounding concerns that companies could take advantage of consumers in a moment of crisis.The Florida Attorney General's Office on Saturday extended the state's "price gouging hotline," offering consumers a way to file complaints as the state braces for Milton.The attorney general's office has received more than 450 consumer contacts alleging price gouging related to Helene, which "mostly concern fuel," a spokesperson told CNBC. The office has received more than 200 contacts related to Milton, mostly about fuel and water.Though the price-gouging panic is normal during natural disasters, just the term "price gouging" has political implications, less than a month out from a presidential election that is extremely close.Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris has proposed a federal ban on price gouging in the grocery sector as part of her campaign's economic platform, though she has acknowledged that the bulk of corporations do not artificially inflate prices.

Biden To Announce $2.6 Billion In Wisconsin For Replacing Lead Pipes -President Joe Biden will be in Wisconsin on Oct. 8 to announce a $2.6 billion investment to replace lead pipes, according to senior administration officials.The funding was allocated under the 2021 Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, which set aside $15 billion over five years for replacing lead pipes. The Clean Water State Revolving Fund under the bill gives an additional $11.7 billion that can be used toward this effort. While in Milwaukee, Biden will also announce a finalized Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) rule that requires water systems nationwide to replace lead service lines within a decade. The new standard for the action level—or how much water in a water system is contaminated—of pipes will be 10 parts per billion. The current standard is 15 parts per billion.Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), who is running for reelection, will not be with the president as he makes the announcement.“Senator Baldwin had a previously scheduled event at a family farm in Eau Claire to receive the American Farm Bureau Federation’s ‘Friend of Farm Bureau’ award recognizing her leadership fighting for America’s hardworking farmers, growers, and producers,” the senator’s communications director, Eli Rosen, told The Epoch Times.One senior administration official said Baldwin is “an amazing partner in this administration and leading the charge in the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law.”Under the EPA rule, at least 49 percent of the funding must be provided to disadvantaged communities as funds that do not need to be repaid. The rule updates what is called the Lead and Copper Rule, which was first enacted in 1991.“The EPA’s new lead rule will begin to reverse the massive public health disaster of lead-contaminated tap water that has affected generations of our children. Every person has a right to safe and affordable drinking water, no matter their race, income, or zip code,” said Manish Bapna, president and CEO of the Natural Resources Defense Council, in a statement obtained by The Epoch Times.

Trump tells Detroit he’ll make car loan interest tax-deductible - Former President Trump laid out his pitch to strengthen the auto industry in an economic address in Detroit on Thursday, proposing to make interest on car loans fully tax deductible, pledging to renegotiate trade deals and vowing to use tariffs to target foreign auto imports. Trump, in a speech to the Detroit Economic Club, made clear his economic vision for bolstering the industry would rely heavily on tariffing foreign nations. He also spoke disparagingly about Detroit itself at times, calling the city in which he was speaking a “developing area more than most places in China.” The former president said he would propose making interest on car loans fully tax deductible, a policy he argued would “stimulate massive domestic auto production and make car ownership dramatically more affordable for millions and millions of working American families.”The idea is in line with Trump’s series of proposals to eliminate taxes on various forms of income, including overtime work, tipped wages and Social Security benefits. Trump also said he would notify Mexico and Canada that he would invoke the six-year renegotiation provisions of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which was approved in 2020 in place of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The former president previously said he would impose tariffs on American companies that outsource manufacturing to incentivize domestic production, and he has vowed to impose a tariff on all imports, a tactic he suggests would bring more companies into the U.S. “I want German car companies to become American car companies. I want them to build plants in America. Otherwise, I’d rather not have their cars here,” Trump said Thursday.While Trump has claimed the use of tariffs would lower costs, economists have repeatedly saidit would cause companies to pass higher costs on to consumers and could worsen inflation. And experts have disputed the former president’s claim that tariffs would bring in billions of dollars for the U.S. government.Trump has offered few details about the specifics of the various tax cuts he’s proposing, including how they would be paid for. The former president has also vowed to extend the individual tax cuts from his 2017 law that are set to expire in 2025. An analysis by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget found that Trump’s tax and spending plans would add $7 trillion to the national debt over a decade.

Harris proposes expanding Medicare to cover long-term care at home --Vice President Kamala Harris announced a new proposal on Tuesday that would require Medicare to cover the costs of long-term care at home. That coverage could potentially allow millions of seniors and people with disabilities to get care at home rather than in a nursing facility.More than 37 million people, or 14% of the adult population, provide some form of unpaid eldercare in the United States, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The majority of these caretakers, around 59%, are women. Harris' universal in-home care proposal would require congressional action. But it could offer unprecedented relief to Americans who currently act as caregivers for family members. The vice president pointed out that her plan could be especially beneficial to those caring for both their aging parents and their children. "It's just almost impossible to do it all, especially if [caregivers] work," Harris said on ABC's "The View," where she first laid out her plan. "We're finding so many are them having to leave their jobs, which means losing a source of income, not to mention the emotional stress." Tricia Neuman, senior vice president and executive director of the Program on Medicare Policy at KFF, said Harris' proposal was historic. "It's been a long time – decades – since a presidential candidate put forward a Medicare proposal to help middle income families cope with the crushing cost of home care," Neuman said. Medicare currently doesn't typically cover long-term care services at home. Medicaid is the primary source of public support for such care, but families have to demonstrate a very low income to qualify. Coverage and eligibility also vary widely by state. "This leaves many middle income families on the hook for the cost of caring for an aging parent or grandparent," Neuman said. The cost of providing in-home long-term care services is staggering. KFF estimated that paying for a professional live-in home health aide, for example, can cost more than $288,000 a year.

JD Vance suggests defunding Planned Parenthood in second Trump term -- Republican vice presidential candidate Sen. JD Vance (Ohio) indicated over the weekend that a second Trump administration would again seek to defund Planned Parenthood if it continues to provide late-term abortions. “On the question of defunding Planned Parenthood, look, I mean, our view is we don’t think that taxpayers should fund late-term abortions,” Vance told RealClearPolitics on Saturday. “That has been a consistent view of the Trump campaign the first time around. It will remain a consistent view.” The bulk of Planned Parenthood’s federal funding comes from Medicaid reimbursements. Former President Trump and Vance have largely shied away from committing to federal action on abortion, repeatedly saying they believe it should be an issue left up to states, though Vance has spoken in support of making abortion illegal nationally. During the vice presidential debate against Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) last week, Vance said the GOP had to “do so much better of a job at earning the American People’s trust back on [abortion] where they frankly just don’t trust us.” The Trump administration had sought to defund Planned Parenthood through different avenues, including issuing a rule that facilities receiving Title X funding cannot also provide or give referrals for abortion services. This led to Planned Parenthood withdrawing from Title X. The Biden administration ended the Title X “gag rule” in 2021. Vance’s remarks appeared specifically targeted at late-term abortions, which generally refers to abortions carried out in the third term of pregnancy. Such procedures are rare and almost always due to a medical emergency. The Hill has reached out to the Trump campaign and Planned Parenthood for additional comment. Harris campaign spokeswoman Lauren Hitt said in a statement that Vance’s statement showed “a second Trump term is too big a risk for American women and their families.” “JD Vance made it clear tonight — a Trump-Vance administration will defund Planned Parenthood and deny millions of women basic health care, including birth control, cancer screenings and even prenatal care — just like he did when he was president,” she said.

Supreme Court won’t revive lawsuit over DOJ school board memo - The Supreme Court won’t revive a lawsuit from parents in Michigan and Virginia who sued Attorney General Merrick Garland after he directed federal authorities to address threats against school board members and educators at public schools nationwide. The lawsuit, filed in October 2021 by the conservative American Freedom Law Center (AFLC) on behalf of Loudoun County, Va., and Saline, Mich., parents, accused Garland of using federal law enforcement resources to “silence” parents who openly oppose “progressive” policies in public schools.The parents asked the Supreme Court to determine whether they have standing to challenge Garland’s directive, which they said created a “chilling effect on their right to freedom of speech and reputational harm.” On Monday, the justices declined. A memorandum Garland issued to the FBI and U.S. attorneys in early October 2021 spurred the parents’ lawsuit. In the memo, Garland noted a “disturbing” spike in threats to school administrators, board members, teachers and staff, and urged law enforcement to address the matter. “While spirited debate about policy matters is protected under our Constitution, that protection does not extend to threats of violence or efforts to intimidate individuals based on their views,” Garland wrote. Though the memo does not mention “parents” or suggest they are at fault, the coalition of Virginia and Michigan parents said in court filings they were the “intended targets” of Garland’s directive. “The Attorney General has pejoratively designated these parents as ‘threats’ and ‘domestic terrorists,’ deeming them worthy of investigation and surveillance by the federal government,” AFLC lawyers Robert Muise and David Yerushalmi wrote in the parents’ petition to the Supreme Court. A Trump-appointed federal judge dismissed the lawsuit on standing in 2022, ruling that Garland’s request did not impose regulations, requirements or enforcement actions on anyone, “much less the plaintiffs.” “Further, even if the alleged policy contained any kind of restriction, regulation, or proscription, it would not apply to the plaintiffs’ conduct,” U.S. District Judge Dabney Friedrich wrote in his10-page ruling. “The plaintiffs represent that their conduct includes verbal opposition and peaceful protests, akin to ‘private citizens petitioning their government officials for a redress of grievances,’ but never ‘threat[s] of criminal violence.’” A federal appeals court affirmed the district court’s ruling last year.

Supreme Court declines to block Biden rules on planet-warming methane, toxic mercury -The Supreme Court on Friday left in place Biden administration regulations aimed at curbing oil and gas facility emissions of methane, a major contributor to climate change. In a separate action, the court also rejected a bid to block a separate regulation aimed at curbing emissions of mercury and other toxic pollutants from coal-fired power plants. In both cases, the court rejected emergency applications without comment, with no noted dissents. Litigation will continue in lower courts. A separate emergency application seeking to block Biden regulations concerning greenhouse gas emissions from coal- and gas-fired power plants remains pending. The court's decision in the methane case means that an Environmental Protection Agency regulation that was finalized in March and is intended to cut methane emissions by up to 80 percent over the next 14 years will remain in effect. Methane is a greenhouse gas that is 80 times more potent than carbon dioxide at trapping heat once emitted into the atmosphere, hence contributing to global warming. The regulation has been challenged by Republican states led by Oklahoma and various oil and gas industry groups. The challengers portray the regulation in stark terms, with industry groups calling it an "authoritarian national command from the EPA" in their court filing. They say the regulation goes further than is allowed under the Clean Air Act, which gives states a role in implementing emissions reduction programs. The states similarly argued in court papers that the administration is using provisions of the Clean Air Act that were never envisioned to address climate change to "shut down power plants in favor of other sources of generation." Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar, representing the Biden administration, dismissed those concerns, saying in her own filing that the agency has not trampled over the states in issuing its emissions guidelines. "Like all EPA emission guidelines under that provision, those guidelines allow the states to decide what particular regulations to adopt," she wrote. New presumptive standards issued by the EPA "simply give states a model that they may rely on if they choose," she added. The mercury regulation has less sweeping impacts, according to the EPA. In that case, the court rejected an emergency request filed by conservative states and industry groups that want to block the EPA regulation issued this year. Under the Clean Air Act provision in question, the EPA is required to curb hazardous pollutants while taking costs into account. The regulation tightens existing regulations on mercury and other metals, such as arsenic and chromium.

FCC chair rebukes Trump’s calls to revoke CBS, ABC broadcast licenses - The chair of the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) is forcefully pushing back on calls from former President Trump to punish broadcast networks that he says are not fair to him. “While repeated attacks against broadcast stations by the former President may now be familiar, these threats against free speech are serious and should not be ignored,” FCC Chair Jessica Rosenworcel said Thursday in a statement to The Hill. Rosenworcel was referencing a string of posts the former president made on his Truth Social website suggesting CBS and ABC, two mainstream broadcast networks he regularly ridicules, should be investigated over what he says is bias against him and in favor of Democrats. Trump first ratcheted up his attacks against ABC News earlier this fall after anchors David Muir and Linsey Davis, who moderated his debate against Vice President Harris last month, offered real-time fact checks of his false or misleading statements that night. This week, Trump went after CBS News after it aired an extensive interview with Harris on “60 Minutes,” which the former president said the network “sliced and diced” to cast her in a positive light. “60 Minutes is a major part of the News Organization of CBS, which has just created the Greatest Fraud in Broadcast History,” Trump wrote online Thursday. “CBS should lose its license, and it should be bid out to the Highest Bidder, as should all other Broadcast Licenses, because they are just as corrupt as CBS — and maybe even WORSE!” “60 Minutes” invited Trump to participate in a similar interview, which Trump accepted and then backed out of after the network said it would fact-check him. Rosenworcel shot back at Trump in her statement Thursday, defending the broadcast networks that have landed in the former president’s crosshairs. “As I’ve said before, the First Amendment is a cornerstone of our democracy,” she said. “The FCC does not and will not revoke licenses for broadcast stations simply because a political candidate disagrees with or dislikes content or coverage.” Trump has previously called for Comcast, the parent company of NBC News and MSNBC, to be investigated “for treason” over coverage he says is too critical of him.

Major US pro-Palestinian group comes out against Trump - Democrat Kamala Harris got a potential boost Tuesday after a pro-Palestinian group threatening to draw votes from her in swing state Michigan came out strongly against her Republican opponent Donald Trump. The Uncommitted movement stopped short of explicitly endorsing Harris, but warned in a video on social media that “it can get worse” under Trump. One of the group’s co-founders, Lexi Zeidan, said voters should consider “the better antiwar approach” rather than “who is the better candidate.” The Harris campaign is worried about losing votes in places like Michigan, where anger among the state’s large Arab American community over the White House’s support for Israeli operations in Gaza and Lebanon has threatened to narrow already thin margins for Democrats. The Uncommitted shift to openly opposing Trump, who is close to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, will come as some relief to Harris, the vice president. However, Abandon Harris, another group of anti-war voters, has endorsed fringe Green Party candidate Jill Stein, potentially turning her into a spoiler that would help elect Trump in swing states decided by just a few thousand votes. Both groups, drawing heavily from Arab, Palestinian and Muslim voters, emerged in protest at President Joe Biden’s backing of Israel despite mounting civilian casualties in Gaza. Harris has attempted to walk a tightrope on the issue, saying at the Democratic presidential nomination she would get a Gaza ceasefire “done” and ensure Palestinians realize their right to “dignity, security, freedom and self-determination.” But Harris has rejected protesters’ demands, such as an arms embargo on Israel — a longtime key US ally.

The preferred face of Wall Street: Harris campaign raises $1 billion in less than three months -- Citing sources close to the Democratic campaign, the New York Times reported Wednesday that Vice President Kamala Harris has raised $1 billion since replacing President Joe Biden at the top of the party’s ticket in July. The Times, citing “people with knowledge of her haul” reported that the massive figure was reached in less than 80 days, the fastest ever for a US political campaign. In the 2020 presidential elections, Biden’s campaign became the first to officially raise over $1 billion. The Times did not report an exact figure and the paper noted that the Harris campaign did not want to announce its September fundraising haul “partly out of concern that bragging about the gush of donations could diminish donor interest in the race’s final weeks, people briefed on the strategy said.” Since replacing Biden, Harris has held several private fundraisers with multimillionaires and celebrities that have garnered tens of millions of dollars. At the end of September, the Harris campaign announced it had raised $55 million at two campaign events in California in a single weekend. On September 28, the campaign held a fundraiser at the Palace of Fine Arts in San Francisco, which featured remarks from former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and netted the campaign $27 million. The following day the campaign claimed to have raised $28 million at an event in downtown Los Angeles that featured “performances by Alanis Morissette and Halle Bailey” according to Reuters. Reuters reported that at both events, Harris called herself “a capitalist” and that while she thought she was still the “underdog” in the election she would win. There is no question that larger sections of Wall Street and corporate America are opening up their wallets for the Harris campaign as she sheds any pretense that her campaign would infringe on the unearned wealth and extravagant lifestyle of the ultra rich. Harris has already walked back Biden’s previous proposals on raising the capital gains tax and is openly courting millionaire and billionaire support. Last week, the Financial Times reported on “Kamala’s Wall Street charm offensive” which included corralling “Democratic donors and bundlers such as Blackstone’s [Jonathan] Gray, Centerview’s Blair Efron and Lazard’s Ray McGuire to help broker relationships with the country’s financiers.” As the president and chief operating officer of Blackstone, the billionaire Gray is officially the largest corporate landlord in America. The massive private equity firm he heads has over $1 trillion in assets and owns “almost 350,000 units of rental housing in the US and many more around the world,”according to a July report from tenant advocacy groups Private Equity Stakeholder Project (PESP) and the Alliance of Californians for Community Empowerment (ACCE). The report noted that since 2021, Blackstone has expanded its “residential real estate empire” by “over 256,000 units.” An analysis by the groups in San Diego found that since 2021 Blackstone had “acquired 66 rental properties with 5,800 total units” in the city. After purchasing the properties, in less than three years, the rent had increased by “38 percent” from $1,696 a month to $2,339 month. This increase, according to the report’s authors, “was almost double the average rent increase for all apartments in the San Diego market, which was just 20 percent during this period.” After the Biden-Harris administration ended the eviction moratorium in 2022, Blackstone began filing eviction notices at a furious clip. PESP and ACCE found that at the end of the year in Florida and Georgia, the company filed more eviction cases “in a typical week than the total for the first seven months of 2022.” Reflecting on the benefit evictions had on Blackstone’s bottom line, PESP and ACCE quoted Blackstone executive Nadeem Meghji saying during an internal company meeting that the company was “seeing a meaningful increase in economic occupancy as we move past what were voluntary eviction restrictions that had been in place for the last couple of years.” Sludge reported on Thursday that Blackstone chief operating officer Gray, “donated $413,000 to the Harris Action Fund in late July, just after President Biden dropped out of the race.”

Deloitte takes fire from Trump-Vance allies over leaked employee messages - Deloitte has come under fire from close allies of former President Trump and Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) after one of its employees shared private conversations with Vance from 2020 in which the vice presidential candidate criticized Trump. Donald Trump Jr., who identified the individual as Deloitte employee Kevin Gallagher, suggested that Republicans reevaluate the government’s nearly $3 billion in contracts with the consulting firm. “An executive at @Deloitte named Kevin Gallagher decided to interfere in the election & leak private convos with JD Vance to help Kamala Harris,” the former president’s son wrote in a post on social platform X, first reported by The Washington Post. “Maybe it’s time for the GOP to end Deloitte’s taxpayer funded gravy train?” he added in the late September post, tagging Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.). Trump Jr.’s comments were shared on X by Vance’s communications director William Martin. Trump adviser Jason Miller also reposted the comments with his own message, “Kevin Gallagher FAFO,” an acronym for the phrase “f‑‑‑ around and find out.” The revelation that the leaked conversations had come from a Deloitte employee also drew concern from at least one member of Congress. “This is outrageous and @Deloitte should immediately and publicly respond to this scandal,” Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.) wrote on X. Deloitte noted in a statement that it is a nonpartisan firm and that Gallagher “shared private personal messages on his own volition without the knowledge of Deloitte.” “Deloitte is deeply committed to supporting our government and commercial clients and we have a long track record of doing so across parties and administrations,” the company added. The saga began shortly after the Post published Vance’s direct messages from 2020 in which he criticized his now running mate. The newspaper did not reveal Gallagher’s identity in the piece. “Trump has just so thoroughly failed to deliver on his economic populism (excepting a disjointed China policy),” Vance wrote in one message in February 2020. In another message in June 2020, Vance predicted that Trump would lose the upcoming election. The Ohio Republican has since refused to say whether the former president lost the 2020 election. Vance’s private comments suggest his change of heart about the former president occurred later than previously understood. Prior to running for the Senate, Vance was particularly critical of Trump, at one point describing him as “America’s Hitler.” He has since walked back his criticism of the former president and become one of Trump’s most prominent supporters in Congress. “I was wrong about him. I didn’t think he was going to be a good president … and I was very, very proud to be proven wrong. It’s one of the reasons why I’m working so hard to get him elected,” Vance said in May, amid rumors he was in contention to be Trump’s running mate. However, Vance’s private messages from 2020 show he continued to criticize the former president throughout the last year of his presidency.

Intel defensive briefings surge as adversaries seek to influence congressional races - Intelligence community officials said they have given three times the number of defensive briefings this year to those who may be the target of foreign influence efforts as in past election cycles. The details come as officials warn that China, Russia and Cuba are making a concerted effort to target congressional races in the U.S., using tactics similar to those seen in bids to influence the presidential election. Intelligence agencies offer defensive briefings when it believes a foreign country has tried to interfere with a campaign or candidate — including when Iran hacked the Trump campaign over the summer. While officials won’t disclose whom the briefings were provided to, the spike shows the growth in efforts to shape the U.S. election. “Moscow is leveraging a wide range of influence actors in an effort to influence congressional races, particularly to encourage the U.S. public to oppose pro-Ukraine policies and politicians. Russian influence actors have planned and likely created and disseminated content, particularly over social media, intended to encourage the election of congressional candidates Moscow assesses will oppose aid to Ukraine,” an official with the Office of the Director of National Intelligence told reporters Monday. China has similarly been seeking to influence elections based on candidates’ positions on Taiwan, which China considers to be one of its territories. Intelligence officials said Cuba “almost certainly has considered influence operations targeting some candidates,” adding the country will likely try to “curry favor” with various politicians. “Havana is very focused on a handful of policy issues that it believes to be negatively impacting the regime. This includes the U.S. embargo on Cuba and other economic and travel restrictions, all of which Havana perceives as an effort to force regime change. Havana considers election influence activities as part of its standing requirements to influence those policies, and Florida is a prime target of their activities,” the official said. “To that end, we have observed Cuba tailoring influence activities based on its perception of candidates, stances on policies towards Cuba in 2020. For example, Havana intended to denigrate specific candidates in Florida and pushed influenced narratives to the Latin American community.”

Judge agrees to unseal additional filings from Jan. 6 case as Trump signals challenge -U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan on Thursday agreed to unseal additional filings from special counsel Jack Smith laying out his election interference case against former President Trump, something Trump’s attorneys signaled they plan to challenge. Chutkan agreed to a request from Smith to unseal exhibits that accompany his 180-page brief asserting that prosecutors can still bring much of their Jan. 6 case against Trump in the wake of a Supreme Court decision granting former presidents broad criminal immunity. Smith argues Trump’s efforts to thwart the transfer of power were the unlawful actions of a private citizen, not of a president. Chutkan granted Smith’s motion to post redacted versions of the exhibits, something that could include grand jury transcripts, texts and other evidence assembled by prosecutors. “The court determines that the Government’s proposed redactions to the Appendix are appropriate, and that Defendant’s blanket objections to further unsealing are without merit. As the court has stated previously, ‘Defendant’s concern with the political consequences of these proceedings’ is not a cognizable legal prejudice,’” she wrote.Trump opposed both the unsealing of Smith’s motion as well as the accompanying evidence.“There should be no further disclosures at this time of the so-called ‘evidence’ that the Special Counsel’s Office has unlawfully cherry-picked and mischaracterized — during early voting in the 2024 Presidential election,” Trump’s team wrote in an earlier filing Thursday.But Chutkan also agreed to stay her ruling for seven days after an earlier motion from Trump’s legal team asked for additional time “so that President Trump can evaluate litigation options relating to the decision.”A motion to reconsider or appeal Chutkan’s decision would be sure to eat up more time in a case already delayed by Trump’s appeal to the Supreme Court and other efforts.Trump already has until Nov. 7 — just days after the election — to file his own response to Smith’s 180-page brief with one of his own that will make his case for why the charges should be dropped after the Supreme Court’s decision.It’s unclear just how much information might be gleaned from the appendix Smith wishes to unseal. His arguments for proceeding in the case did include some new evidence not yet uncovered by reporters or the now-disbanded Jan. 6 committee, including details from contemporaneous notes former Vice President Mike Pence took while speaking with Trump.

Has the special counsel botched the Trump indictments? -The legal system has utterly failed to disqualify former President Trump from office. Whether he becomes the next president is now anybody’s guess. Much of the fault may be laid at the feet of special counsel Jack Smith, who has pursued Trump with the zeal of Inspector Javert, but has thus far come up empty handed.The open-and-shut case involving Trump’s mishandling of the classified Mar-a-Lago documents has been dismissed on unprecedented legal grounds involving Smith’s standing to prosecute him. The Washington case involving Trump’s conspiracy against democracy is back to the start, with Smith losing on immunity in the Supreme Court.Straining to right a listing ship, Smith has filed a 165-page, procedurally irregular dump of hisgrand jury materials, containing evidence that Trump cannot refute. The filing obviously flouts the internal Justice Department rule that “Federal prosecutors … may never select the timing of any action, including investigative steps, criminal charges, or statements, for the purpose of affecting any election.” So Smith has not played it by the book. Veteran prosecutor Elie Honig calls the brief “Smith’s October Cheap Shot.” It is certainly a late hit. None of the facts in Smith’s submission are game-changing reveals. The narrative is the same as before, with the new details only fleshing out the case under the guise of trying to get around the Supreme Court’s immunity decision. Obviously, the aim is to blacken Trump further on the eve of the election. We now have new details on Trump’s effort to pressure Vice President Mike Pence to throw the election his way; Trump’s phone use and use of Twitter as the Capitol was attacked; and his conversations with family members about efforts to contest his electoral defeat, ostensibly after he knew he had lost. Most damning is Trump’s callousness when informed of the peril his vice president encountered at the hands of the mob he unleashed. He posted to Twitter that Pence had lacked the “courage” to do what was right. The mob became enraged, and the Secret Service took Pence to a secure location. Trump’s reaction: “So what?” What’s sauce for the goose ought to be sauce for the gander. Democrats, justly outraged in 2016 by FBI Director James Comey’s explosive revelation that Hillary Clinton’s emails were found on the laptop of Anthony Weiner, husband of Clinton aide Huma Abedin, on the brink of the election should have a similar reaction to Smith’s filing. Both prosecutors violated the long-standing Justice Department practice not to take investigative steps just before an election. The reasons for the rule not to mix politics with law enforcement are obvious. Neither revelation served any legitimate law enforcement purpose. Smith could have waited a month. There was no hurry.This was not the only prosecutorial mistake Smith has made. He is a bloodhound who can’t catch the hare. He took more than 2 1/2 years to indict Trump over Jan. 6 in the first place. Did he not think that Trump would make motions, seek delays and throw a monkey wrench into his timetable under the venerable principle that I learned in the U.S. attorney’s office decades ago? “No trial, no conviction.”Then he brought the slam-dunk Mar-a-Lago documents case in Florida. He could have brought it in Washington. The jury pool in Florida would be favorable to Trump. In 2020, Trump won Florida with 51.2 percent of the vote. In Washington, he won just 5.4 percent. Was Smith nuts?Florida was the home of Trump-friendly Judge Aileen Cannon, twice rebuked by the 11th Circuit for off-the-wall rulings on the Mar-a-Lago search warrant. Cannon’s bias in favor of Trump was so self-evident that two federal judge colleagues advised her to decline the case when it was assigned to her. Smith bet he could avoid Cannon in Florida, but badly miscalculated the odds. Smith’s chances of landing before Cannon, because of the peculiarity of local rules, were 1 in 3. It was a sucker’s bet, and Smith crapped out.Smith also overprosecuted his case. He did not need to join Trump’s valet, Walt Nauta, and his Mar-a-Lago property manager, Carlos De Oliveira, as co-defendants with Trump. It only complicated discovery and played into Trump’s strategy of delay. Smith should have anticipated that Nauta and De Oliveira would argue with some force for time for document review and discover. The two could have been indicted separately. The evidence against Trump’s agents would have been admissible against Trump in a trial where Trump was the only defendant.So Smith is left spinning wheels, desperately seeking to save two cases that will obviously be dismissed if Trump is elected. And if Vice President Harris is elected, the cases may go away anyway.

Ex-Adams aide charged with witness tampering in campaign finance probe day after resigning -- A former New York City official, who until Monday worked in the Adams administration, has been arrested and charged with witness tampering and obstruction of justice, according to federal prosecutors. In a new complaint from the U.S. Attorney's office for the Southern District of New York, prosecutors allege Mohamed Bahi, 40, organized fundraisers for Mayor Eric Adams' 2021 campaign and accepted straw donations. Prosecutors say Bahi obstructed the federal investigation into those donations by deleting the encrypted messaging app Signal from his cellphone when FBI agents arrived at his house in July 2024 with a search warrant. Bahi is also accused of ordering "third parties" to lie to federal agents and did so after meeting with "OFFICIAL-1," Adams, according to the complaint."As alleged, Mohamed Bahi obstructed a federal criminal investigation by instructing witnesses to lie and then destroying evidence," U.S. Attorney Damian Williams said in a statement. "The charges unsealed today should leave no doubt about the seriousness of any effort to interfere with a federal investigation, particularly when undertaken by a government employee. Our commitment to uncovering the truth and following the facts wherever they may lead is unwavering."Bahi's criminal complaint alleges that he organized a fundraiser at the Brooklyn headquarters of a construction company in December 2020, where Bahi suggested that the company's owner have his employees make donations to Adams' campaign and then refund the workers for the $2,000 payments – a little under the maximum allowed by any individual donor in the city.Four employees and the owner made donations to the campaign, with the workers' payments reimbursed by the company, according to the complaint. All have subsequently spoken to law enforcement, and the owner admitted his involvement in the illegal straw donations, according to prosecutors.In his own indictment, Adams is also accused of knowingly accepting illegal donations from straw donors – in his case, conspiring to take campaign contributions from Turkish nationals and disguising the payments by routing them through U.S. citizens. That enabled Adams to unlock public funds that provide an eight-to-one match for small-dollar donations, prosecutors said. Bahi is charged with witness tampering and destruction of records, each of which is punishable by up to 20 years in prison, according to prosecutors. He's the first person other than Adams to be charged in the investigation.

DJT: Trump Media stock soars, continues rally --Shares of Trump Media surged nearly 19% on Tuesday, putting the Truth Social operator on track for its fourth straight day of gains — its longest positive price streak since June. DJT shares at one point jumped to $22 in extremely heavy trading, nearly 90% higher than the company's intraday low of $11.75 per share on Sept. 24.Trump Media ended the trading day up 18.5% at $21.80 per share.But the stock price remains well below its peak in late March, when shares hit $79.38 during the company's trading debut on the Nasdaq.More than 45 million DJT shares were exchanged Tuesday, more than tripling its 30-day average volume.

Jamie Dimon denies Trump's claim that JPMorgan CEO has endorsed him - JPMorgan Chase on Friday flatly denied that its CEO, Jamie Dimon, has endorsed Donald Trump for president, minutes after the Republican nominee claimed on social media that Dimon is now backing him."Jamie Dimon has not endorsed anyone. He has not endorsed a candidate," Dimon spokesman Joe Evangelisti told CNBC in a phone call.Trump on Truth Social had posted a screenshot falsely claiming, "New: Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase, has endorsed Trump for President."The claim appears to have originated from a verified account on X earlier Friday. It was quickly amplified on social media by other pro-Trump accounts, and then the former president himself, before the bank issued its denial.When NBC News asked Trump about the post later Friday, Trump said he did not know about it and that it was not posted by him. "Somebody put it up," Trump said, adding, "I don't know."The post, published at 1:56 p.m. ET, was still visible on Trump's official account more than two hours later. The Trump campaign did not respond to CNBC's requests for comment.

AI tracker charts growth in deepfakes ahead of election -- The German Marshall Fund has launched a tool to track deepfakes created by artificial intelligence (AI) that are targeting elections and circulating in the U.S. and across the globe. The tool comes in a historic year for elections. More than half the globe has or will hold elections in 2024, a detail that collides with a surge in AI-created audio, video and images often providing false narratives and information about candidates.The U.S. has already seen its fair share of AI-generated content targeting the election, from fake audio claiming to be President Biden encouraging New Hampshire voters to skip the primary to former President Trump posting fake images of Taylor Swift falsely suggesting the singer endorsed him. Dubbed “Spitting Images,” the project charts only deepfakes that have gained significant traction or been debunked by journalists.In addition to providing a fact check for voters, Lindsay Gorman, the project’s lead, is hopeful the tool will also spot trends that can help policymakers weigh how to regulate the use of artificial intelligence in elections.“We wanted to understand, how is [AI] actually being deployed in the real world over this historic election year? And for policymakers that are thinking through potential legislation or potential guardrails on artificial intelligence — particularly around political AI — should they have transparency requirements when it comes to politicians and elections? Where should they be focusing their efforts?” Gorman said.The tracker, pulling data assembled over the last year, has charted 133 deepfakes released over 30 different countries.Gorman said a few trends have clearly emerged, including a reliance on audio deepfakes, which accounted for almost 70 percent of tracked cases.“The fact is that the current state of the technology is just not that convincing when it comes to images and videos, but it is when it comes to audio. It’s very difficult to tell when something’s been AI-generated,” she said.AI-generated audio already has played a role in a major election in Slovakia, where fake audio purportedly showing one of the candidates, Michal Šimečka, discussing rigging the election as well as planning to raise the price of beer if elected.The fake audio emerged during the country’s 48-hour moratorium on campaigning, making it difficult to debunk.

OpenAI detects attempts to use AI for election interference --OpenAI has seen continued attempts by cybercriminals to use its artificial intelligence (AI) models for fake content aimed at interfering with this year’s elections, the ChatGPT maker said in a new report. According to OpenAI’s report, released Wednesday, the AI developer discovered and disrupted more than 20 operations this year that tried to influence the election with the company’s technology, including its popular ChatGPT tool. These deceptive networks attempted to use OpenAI’s models to generate a variety of fake content, some of which was intended to be shared by fake personas on social media, the report stated. OpenAI’s models were also used to make articles for websites, analyze and reply to social media posts or debug malware, the tech giant said. This activity was detected in-part by OpenAI’s own AI tools, which often caught it in a matter of minutes, according to the report. While threat actors may be “experimenting” with OpenAI models, the company emphasized its reach is limited. “Threat actors continue to evolve and experiment with our models, but we have not seen evidence of this leading to meaningful breakthroughs in their ability to create s ubstantially new malware or build viral audiences,” the report said. It also laid out several examples of the misuse it observed in recent months. In early July, for example, the company said it banned several ChatGPT accounts from Rwanda after discovering they were being used to generate comments about the country’s elections. And in August, OpenAI disrupted a “covert Iranian influence operation” which produced social media comments and long-form articles about the U.S. election, conflict in the Middle East, Venezuelan politics and Scottish independence. Most of these posts received little engagement, and there were no indications they were shared across social media sites, the report noted.

Microsoft unveils AI tools to enhance health care workflow -- Microsoft unveiled several new artificial intelligence (AI) tools on Thursday aiming to support health care organizations through medical imaging models, health care agent services and an AI-driven workflow solution for nurses. The announcement detailed how each tool will improve workflow for busy health care professionals. The AI imaging tool, developed in collaboration with partners like Providence and Paige.ai, enables health care organizations to integrate and analyze various data types beyond just text, including medical images, clinical records and genomic data. Microsoft says the tool would allow health care organizations to “rapidly build, fine-tune and deploy AI solutions tailored to their specific needs.”Carlo Bifulco, chief medical officer of Providence Genomics and a co-author of the Prov-GigaPath study, noted the models may help with cancer research and diagnostics. “These models can complement human expertise by providing insights beyond traditional visual interpretation and, as we move toward a more integrated, multimodal approach, will reshape the future of medicine,” he said. The AI tools will also help nurses and clinicians time on administrative tasks. According to a report from the Office of the Surgeon General, nurses will spend 41 percent of their time on documentation alone. The tools aim to rapidly decrease that strain on medical professionals by streamlining those administrative tasks, such as through drafting flow sheets for review.Additionally, Microsoft announced a new public preview of an AI health care agent service, which would aid in appointment scheduling, clinical trial matching, patient triaging and more. The statement detailed that medical organizations can “leverage the health care agent service to help create connected patient experiences, improve clinical workflows, and empower healthcare professionals.”“We are at an inflection point where AI breakthroughs are fundamentally changing the way we work and live,” said Joe Petro, corporate vice president of healthcare and life sciences solutions and platforms at Microsoft, in a statement.“Microsoft’s AI-powered solutions are helping lead these efforts by streamlining workflows, improving data integration, and utilizing AI to deliver better outcomes for healthcare professionals, researchers and scientists, payors, providers, medtech developers, and ultimately the patients they all serve,” he added.

FTC antitrust case against Amazon moves forward, several state claims dismissed -- The Federal Trade Commission’s (FTC) antitrust case against Amazon will move forward, but several state claims against the e-commerce giant were dismissed, according to a newly unsealed ruling. In a ruling filed last week under seal, U.S. District Judge John Chun dismissed claims brought by Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Oklahoma and Maryland. However, Chun denied Amazon’s motion to dismiss the FTC’s claims, as well as several other state claims. “We are pleased with the court’s decision and look forward to moving this case forward,” FTC spokesperson Douglas Farrar said in a statement. “The ways Amazon illegally maintains its monopolies and the harm they cause—including suppressed competition and higher prices for shoppers and sellers—will be on full display at trial,” Farrar continued. “This case ultimately seeks to pry loose Amazon’s monopolistic control and restore competition.” The FTC and 17 states sued Amazon in September 2023 for allegedly engaging in anticompetitive practices that harm both shoppers and sellers. Puerto Rico and Vermont also joined the suit in March. The agency accused Amazon of keeping prices higher across the internet by using anti-discounting tactics that deter other online retailers from offering lower prices. It also argued the e-commerce giant makes it more expensive for sellers to offer their products on other platforms by tying their eligibility for Prime to their use of Amazon’s fulfillment services. However, Amazon argued in its motion to dismiss that its practices actually “benefit consumers and are the essence of competition.”

DOJ indicates it’s considering Google breakup following monopoly ruling -The Department of Justice late Tuesday made recommendations for Google's search engine business practices, indicating that it was considering a possible breakup of the tech giant as an antitrust remedy.The remedies necessary to "prevent and restrain monopoly maintenance could include contract requirements and prohibitions; non-discrimination product requirements; data and interoperability requirements; and structural requirements," the department said in a filing.The DOJ also said it was "considering behavioral and structural remedies that would prevent Google from using products such as Chrome, Play, and Android to advantage Google search and Google search-related products and features — including emerging search access points and features, such as artificial intelligence — over rivals or new entrants."Additionally, the DOJ suggested limiting or prohibiting default agreements and "other revenue-sharing arrangements related to search and search-related products." That would include Google's search position agreements with Apple's iPhone and Samsung devices — deals that cost the company billions of dollars a year in payouts. The agency suggested one way to do this is requiring a "choice screen," which could allow users to pick from other search engines.Such remedies would end "Google's control of distribution today" and ensure "Google cannot control the distribution of tomorrow."The recommendations come after a U.S. judge in August ruledthat Google holds a monopoly in the search market. That ruling came after the government in 2020 filed the landmark case, alleging that Google has kept its share of the general search market by creating strong barriers to entry and a feedback loop that sustained its dominance. The court found that Google violated Section 2 of the Sherman Act, which outlaws monopolies.Kent Walker, Google's president of global affairs, said the company plans to appeal the ruling and highlighted the court's emphasis on the high quality of Google's search products, which the judge also noted in his ruling. The DOJ also recommended Google make available to competitors its data within its search index and models, including its AI-assisted search features and its ad ranking data. The DOJ is also considering remedies that would "prohibit Google from using or retraining data that cannot be effectively shared with others on the basis of privacy concerns," according to the filing.

US Antitrust Officials Consider Google Breakup As 'Trustbusting Era' May Return - The US Department of Justice and a group of states submitted a document detailing a proposed remedy framework in the ongoing antitrust case against big tech giant Google. The case centers around Google's violations of Section 2 of the Sherman Act for illegally maintaining monopolies, including general search services and text advertising. On Aug. 5, US District Judge Amit Mehta, Washington, DC, ruled that Google violated antitrust law by spending billions of dollars to create an illegal monopoly as the world's default search engine on smartphones, computers, and tablets. The ruling paved the way for antitrust enforcers to submit a 32-page document on Tuesday that explained the potential remedies for the judge to consider as the case moves into the remedy phase. On page 9 of the remedy framework document, the DoJ specifies the government has a "full range of tools previously identified such asstructural and additional behavioral remedies as well as term extensions" to restore competition in the marketplace that would modify Google's business from using products such as its Chrome browser or Android operating system to create advantages for the big tech firm's search engine. "Fully remedying these harms requires not only ending Google's control of distribution today, but also ensuring Google cannot control the distribution of tomorrow," DoJ said. Antitrust enforcers said Google colluded with other big tech companies to make its search engine the default option on devices. Google quickly responded in a blog post titled "DOJ's radical and sweeping proposals risk hurting consumers, businesses, and developers" to the remedy framework document on Tuesday evening. Google Vice President of Regulatory Affairs Lee-Anne Mulholland wrote in the post that the DoJ's remedy framework is "radical" and could have "negative unintended consequences for American innovation and America's consumers."Google's market capitalization (as of Tuesday's close) of just a little over $2 trillion makes it the world's fourth-largest company. Mounting legal pressure sent shares down around 1% in premarket trading in New York.

Supreme Court rejects Martin Shkreli appeal on pharma fine --The Supreme Court in an order Monday rejected a bid by notorious 'pharma bro' Martin Shkreli to hear his appeal of a $64 million financial penalty on the fraudster for blocking competition to a lifesaving drug whose price he had raised by more than $700 per pill.Shkreli's request that the Supreme Court take his appeal of afederal judge's decision was his last chance to overturn the penalty that held him personally responsible for disgorging profits his company made from selling the drug Daraprim.The Supreme Court in rejecting that request did not explain its reason for doing so. There were no noted dissents by any justice to Monday's order.Shkreli's lawyer had asked the Supreme Court to take the appeal to resolve a so-called circuit split between the appeals court that upheld his financial penalty and two other federal appeals court circuits that the attorney said would have limited his financial liability.Federal Trade Commission Chair Lina Khan, whose agency had filed the antitrust lawsuit against Shkreli with seven states, in a tweet about the Supreme Court's order said, "Executives that break the law will face accountability from @FTC.".Shkreli's attorney, Thomas Huff, told CNBC, "Although we were disappointed in the disposition, we also think it is just a matter of time before the Supreme Court overturns the Second Circuit [federal appeals court's] outlier approach to equitable disgorgement — an approach that in this case permitted a district court to order Mr. Shkreli to 'disgorge' over $64 million in profits that never touched his possession or control.""If and when the Supreme Court does so, Mr. Shkreli will have a strong argument for modifying the order accordingly," Huff said in an email.

America's largest water utility hacked as US infrastructure targeted -- American Water, the largest water utility in the U.S., disclosed that it had been hit by a cyberattack. The Camden, New Jersey-based company said in a security statement on its website that it had learned of "unauthorized activity in our computer networks and systems" last Thursday, which it determined "to be the result of a cybersecurity incident." The company said on Tuesday that it shut down its customer service portal, and as a result, its billing function "until further notice" and will not charge any late fees or other fees related to billing as long as the system is down. Some recent hacks of major U.S. companies have brought key online systems to a halt and created chaos for consumers and businesses, such as the hack of UnitedHealth which led to nationwide difficulty among patients needs prescriptions filled and health-care professionals needing to be paid for services. Hacks targeting U.S. water infrastructure, in particular, have been increasing, with some of the attacks linked to geopolitical rivals of the U.S., including Iran, Russia and China.Taking out critical national infrastructure has become a top priority for foreign-linked cybercriminals. "All drinking water and wastewater systems are at risk — large and small, urban and rural," an EPA spokesman recently told CNBC.American Water provides drinking water and wastewater services to more than 14 million people with regulated operations in 14 states and on 18 military installations.One recent Russian-linked hack in January of a water filtration plant in a small Texas town, Muleshoe was located near a U.S. Air Force base. "Water is among the least mature in terms of security," Adam Isles, head of cybersecurity practice for Chertoff Group, recently told CNBC.The FBI warned Congress in February that Chinese hackers had penetrated deeply into United States' cyber infrastructure in an attempt to cause damage, targeting water treatment plans, the electrical grid, transportation systems and other critical infrastructure. America Water said it remains early in the investigation and "currently believes" that no water or wastewater facilities or operations have been impacted and water remains safe to drink.

Hackers used two Fidelity accounts to steal data from 77,000 customers -- Cybercriminals recently stole personal information on 77,099 consumers using two Fidelity Investments customer accounts they created posing as legitimate customers, the investing platform said in a public disclosure Wednesday. The investing platform disclosed a data breach this week, offering few details on the impact or how customer accounts could cause such damage.

Truist customers affected by February data breach of third party -- Truist publicly disclosed last week that a February data breach at a third party that affected 4.2 million consumers included some bank customers. A debt collection agency that provided services to Truist suffered a data breach in February affecting 4.2 million people. The data had been in the possession of debt collection agency Financial Business and Consumer Solutions, or FBCS.

LEGO's website hacked to push cryptocurrency scam --On Friday night, cryptocurrency scammers briefly hacked the LEGO website to promote a fake Lego token that could be purchased with Ethereum.During the breach, the hacker replaced the main banner for the official LEGO website with an image showing crypto tokens branded with the "LEGO" logo and text stating, "Our new LEGO Coin is officially out! Buy the new LEGO Coin today and unlock secret rewards!"According to LEGO Reddit moderator "mescad," the breach took place at 9 PM EST and lasted approximately 75 minutes until 10:15 PM ET, when the site was restored.Unlike many cryptocurrency scams, this one did not promote a malicious site with a crypto drainer that stole your assets when you connected your wallet.Instead, clicking the "Buy now" link brought visitors to the Uniswap cryptocurrency platform, where you could purchase the LEGO scam token using Ethereum.LEGO confirmed the breach to BleepingComputer but would not share details on how the threat actors gained access to their website."On 5 October 2024, an unauthorised banner briefly appeared on LEGO.com. It was quickly removed, and the issue has been resolved," LEGO told BleepingComputer."No user accounts have been compromised, and customers can continue shopping as usual. The cause has been identified and we are implementing measures to prevent this from happening again."Overall, the attack was a failure, with only a few people purchasing the LEGO token for a few hundred dollars.For such a high-profile site like LEGO, it is surprising that the threat actors would waste their access on a crypto scam.Website breaches are instead more commonly used to inject malicious JavaScript into web pages to stealthily steal customer information and credit cards. This data is then used to extort companies for high payouts, sold on darknet marketplaces, or used to make fraudulent purchases online.

Crypto relationship scams pose 'catastrophic harm,' SEC says. How to avoid them -Investors are at a heightened risk of cryptocurrency scams tied to fake relationships established over social media, dating apps and networking sites, federal officials warn.Such frauds occur when scammers use dating apps, social media platforms, professional networking sites or encrypted messaging apps to pose as a romantic interest, old friend, investment professional or other acquaintance. Fraudsters gain the trust of targets over time. At some point, they broach the idea of investing in crypto — and then defraud victims via fake investments. "Relationship investment scams, including those involving crypto asset investments, pose a risk of catastrophic harm to retail investors, and the threat is increasing rapidly as these scams become more popular with fraudsters," Gurbir S. Grewal, director of the Securities and Exchange Commission's Division of Enforcement, said in a press statement.Last month, the SEC brought its first-ever enforcement actions tied to crypto relationship frauds. The SEC alleged criminals pilfered millions of dollars of investors' money in two separate schemes tied to WhatsApp, LinkedIn and Instagram and fake crypto asset trading platforms NanoBit and CoinW6.Crypto, examples of which includes bitcoin and ethereum, is a digital currency. Its use has grown among criminals, according to the Federal Bureau of Investigation.Consumers lost an estimated $5.6 billion from crypto-related scams in 2023, up 45% from 2022, the FBI said in a recent fraud report.Investment scams accounted for about 71% of those total losses in 2023, the agency said. There are "many variations" of crypto investment fraud, but the most prominent last year was the relationship scam, the FBI said."The dollar losses can be huge," Kim Casci-Palangio, head of the romance scam recovery group at the Cybercrime Support Network, said on a recent podcast published by the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, a federal brokerage regulator."For our program, the dollar losses average about $178,000 a person," Casci-Palangio said.Criminals have turned to crypto more readily as an outlet for fraud because of its decentralized nature, the speed of irreversible transactions and ability to move money around the world, the FBI said.Advancements in artificial intelligence will likely make romance scams tied to crypto harder to detect, said Micah Hauptman, director of investor protection at the Consumer Federation of America, a nonprofit consumer advocacy group.These frauds are often "long cons," Hauptman said.Here are tips from the FBI, SEC and financial experts on how to protect yourself from crypto romance scams:

86-Year-Old Ex-Attorney Hit with $14M Restitution in Crypto Ponzi Case - David Kagel, an 86-year-old former attorney from California, has been sentenced to five years of probation and ordered to pay nearly $14 million in restitution after admitting to his role in a multi-million-dollar crypto Ponzi scheme. The sentencing was handed down on October 8 by Judge Gloria Navarro in a Las Vegas federal court, following Kagel’s guilty plea in May to one count of conspiracy to commit commodity fraud. Kagel, now in hospice care at a senior facility in Las Vegas due to declining health, will serve his probation at the facility. If he leaves, he will be required to wear a monitoring device. The sentencing comes after prosecutors charged him last year for his involvement in the fraudulent scheme that spanned from December 2017 to June 2022. According to the prosecution, Kagel, along with two accomplices, lured investors into a deceptive crypto bot trading program, falsely promising high returns with no risk. The trio reportedly “fraudulently promoted and solicited investments,” raising about $15 million from victims under the guise of legitimate cryptocurrency trading ventures. Kagel played a key role in building trust with investors by drafting letters on his law firm’s official letterhead, adding a veneer of legitimacy to the scheme. These letters, prosecutors noted, convinced victims they were participating in a reliable investment opportunity that employed trading bots to generate profits in the cryptocurrency market. The fraudulent scheme promised investors guaranteed returns ranging from 20% to 100% within 30 days, along with assurances that their principal investments would be protected. Kagel also claimed to possess a wallet containing 1,000 Bitcoin, worth $11 million as of January 2018, allegedly held in escrow to secure the investments. Additionally, he misrepresented his previous experience in cryptocurrency to further gain investor trust. In 2023, the California Supreme Court revoked Kagel’s law license for failing to respond to disciplinary charges related to the misappropriation of $25,000 in client funds. His license had been suspended twice before, in 1997 and 2012. Meanwhile, his co-defendants, David Saffron and Vincent Mazzotta, have pleaded not guilty and are awaiting trial in a Los Angeles federal court set for next April.

US charges 3 companies, 15 people with cryptocurrency fraud (Reuters) - Three cryptocurrency companies and 15 people have been charged with engaging in widespread fraud and market manipulation following an investigation in which the FBI for the first time directed the creation of a new digital token to help authorities ferret out crime. Federal prosecutors in Boston charged the firms Gotbit, ZM Quant, CLS Global and the leaders and employees of those and other companies in a takedown that has led to four arrests, agreements by five people to plead guilty and the seizure of over $25 million worth of cryptocurrency. Acting U.S. Attorney Joshua Levy said the defendants engaged in sham trades to artificially inflate the trading volume of various cryptocurrency tokens before selling them off, "leaving innocent investors holding the bag." "This is a case where new age technology, crypto, meets an old school fraud, in this case a 'pump and dump' scheme, which is as old as the stock markets," Levy told reporters. As part of the investigation, the FBI directed the creation of a cryptocurrency company, NexFundAI, which had a token on the Ethereum blockchain that prosecutors said ZM Quant, CLS Global and another company, MyTrade, agreed to help manipulate. Authorities said that token was traded but that they carefully monitored to minimize the risk retail investors might buy it before disabling trading. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filed related civil cases as well. Prosecutors said that Saitama, the largest of the companies involved, at one point had a market value of $7.5 billion, after its leadership began manipulating trading of its tokens and secretly sold them. Its chief executive, Manpreet Kohli, opens new tab, was arrested on Monday in the United Kingdom. Five other current or former employees were also charged, and three have pleaded guilty. Others charged, were Aleksei Andriunin, CEO of Gotbit, a cryptocurrency "market maker" who lived in Russia and Portugal. He was arrested in Portugal on Tuesday. Two of his company's employees in Russia were also charged. Prosecutors said that from 2018 to 2024, Gotbit engaged in "wash trading," a form of sham trading, and market manipulation on behalf of several cryptocurrency clients to help artificially inflate trading volume for their tokens. Also charged were four other individuals who worked at cryptocurrency "market makers" that prosecutors said advertised market manipulation services to clients. They are Liu Zhou, the founder of market maker MyTrade, who according to court papers has agreed to plead guilty; Riqui Liu of the United Kingdom and Hong Kong and Baijun Ou of Hong Kong, who both worked at ZM Quant; and Andrey Zhorzhes of the United Arab Emirates, an employee of CLS Global.

FTX bankruptcy judge approves more than $14 billion payback plan - Almost all of the creditors of failed crypto company FTX will end up profiting from the money they put into the exchange, a federal bankruptcy judge ruled Monday. Nearly two years after FTX spiraled into bankruptcy, a Delaware judge approved the company's reorganization plan, which involves paying out more than $14 billion to customers of the collapsed cryptocurrency exchange."Looking ahead, we are poised to return 100% of bankruptcy claim amounts plus interest for non-governmental creditors through what will be the largest and most complex bankruptcy estate asset distribution in history," said John Ray, who took over as FTX CEO following the company's bankruptcy filing in late 2022, in a statement on Monday. Ray, who also shepherded Enron through bankruptcy, added that the estate is working to finalize arrangements to make distributions to creditors around the world. The company says it has collected between $14.7 billion and $16.5 billion worth of property for distribution. FTX previously estimated that it owes creditors around $11.2 billion. According to the plan approved by Delaware bankruptcy Judge John Dorsey, 98% of FTX's creditors will get 119% of the amount of their allowed claim as of November 2022, when the exchange filed for bankruptcy protection. The price of bitcoin is up roughly 260% since FTX's failure. FTX raised the money by selling a number of assets, including venture investments held by the exchange and other investments held by Alameda Research, Bankman-Fried's crypto hedge fund. One of FTX's most high-profile investments was in artificial intelligence startup Anthropic, which is backed by Amazon. FTX sold most of its stake in Anthropic this year for nearly $900 million. The bankruptcy estate says it will make a separate announcement about the date the payout plan will go into effect and when it anticipates the start of distributions. FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried was convicted of seven criminal counts last November, including charges related to stealing billions of dollars from FTX's customers. He received a 25-year prison sentence.

Korean news giant Chosun Ilbo accused of supporting $3 billion KOK crypto scam - Victims of the KOK crypto scam have called out South Korea’s largest daily newspaper for promoting the fraudulent scheme, which led to at least $2.97 billion in losses. According to an Ajlu press report, a coalition of victims has accused Chosun IIbo subsidiaries IT Chosun and Digital Chosun Ilbo of deliberately promoting the fraudulent KOK token scheme to the public.The coalition alleges that these media outlets provided extensive coverage that lent legitimacy to the token, including reporting on the launch of KOK’s main transaction server and awarding the company a grand prize for consumer satisfaction.Jin Eun-ja, the coalition leader, claims scheme operators reportedly used these endorsements to mislead investors into trusting the project when concerns about it emerged, ultimately contributing to their financial losses.Meanwhile, Attorney Lee Min-suk, representing the coalition, pointed out the suspicious timing of Chosun Ilbo’s coverage and awards, suggesting that it played a key role in giving the scheme an air of credibility, ultimately drawing more unsuspecting investors into the scam. He called for a special investigation to determine whether Chosun Ilbo’s actions helped key figures in the scam avoid legal trouble early on, particularly in light of the Ulsan District Prosecutor’s Office investigation, which has yet to produce meaningful results.Eun-ja also expressed frustration that one of the key promoters of KOK, identified only as Mr. Han, remains free in the United States despite being a red-notice fugitive. As of the last update, Han was arrested in the US earlier this year and is awaiting extradition to South Korea.

FBI Creates Crypto Token to Expose Fraud — Seizes $25M in Cryptocurrency, Charges 18 – Featured Bitcoin News

Moo Deng meme coin investor turns $800 into $7.5 million as hippo-inspired cryptocurrency skyrockets -- A fringe cryptocurrency inspired by a viral hippo has shot up in price by nearly a million per cent after the token went viral.Moodeng, which is named after a two-month-old pygmy hippopotamus called Moo Deng, rose in value so sharply that one crypto trader was able to turn an $800 investment into $7.5 million.The so-called memecoin was created shortly after the baby hippo gained online fame when the Khao Kheow Open Zoo in Thailand posted pictures of the “bouncy pig” to Facebook.The gains, first spotted by crypto publication Decrypt, come as investors proclaim the beginning of “meme season”, with several other so-called memecoins hitting all-time-highs in recent days.Popcat, a crypto project inspired by a viral cat named Oatmeal, hit a record high on Monday of $1.45 – up from below 1 cent at the start of the year – as some traders called for a “memecoin supercycle”.The Popcat meme inspired an eponymous crypto token that hit an all-time-high on Monday, 7 October (Screenshot)After peaking in price towards the end of September, Moo Deng saw its price retreat before rallying once again on Monday.The latest rally comes after Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin sold 10 billion Moodeng worth more than $800,000 and donated a portion to an anti-airborne-disease charity.The crypto founder regularly receives memecoins when new projects are launched, typically donating them to charities. His specific mention of Moondeng following his latest donation saw it surge nearly 400 per cent in less than 24 hours.“I appreciate all the memecoins that donate portions of their supply directly to charity,” Mr Buterin wrote in a post to X on Monday.“Anything that gets sent to me gets donated to charity too (thanks moodeng! The 10B from today is going to anti-airborne-disease tech), though I truly prefer if you guys send to charity directly, maybe even make a DAO and get your community directly engaged in the decisions and process.

Ripple launches new crypto storage services for banks, fintechs in bid to diversify - U.S. blockchain startup Ripple made a major expansion of its crypto custody business on Thursday, launching new services aimed at helping banks and financial technology firms to store digital assets on behalf of clients. The San Francisco-based company told CNBC it is debuting a slew of features to enable its banking and fintech clientele to keep and maintain digital tokens — as part of a broader push into custody, a nascent business for Ripple under its Ripple Custody division, which was formed last year. These features include pre-configured operational and policy settings, integration with Ripple's XRP Ledger blockchain platform, monitoring of anti-money laundering risks to maintain compliance, and a new user interface that's easier to use and engage. The move will help Ripple, which is primarily known for the XRP cryptocurrency and its Ripple Payments platform, to diversify beyond its core payment settlement business. Ripple Payments is a messaging platform based on blockchain — the technology that underpins cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin — which lets banks share updates on the status of money movements in a global, distributed network. Thursday's development marks Ripple's first significant move to consolidate its custody products under one brand, Ripple Custody, and take on a slew of companies that already offer products and services in this space, such as Coinbase, Gemini, and Fireblocks. Custody is a nascent but fast-growing space within the digital asset space. Custodians play a key role in the crypto market, helping clients safeguard private keys, which are the alphanumeric codes required to unlock access to digital assets and authorize transactions. Custodians don't just store crypto. They also help with payments and settlements, trading, and ensuring regulatory compliance with global laws governing digital currencies. The crypto custody market is forecast to reach at least $16 trillion by 2030, according to the Boston Consulting Group. Ripple said that custody is one of the fastest-growing areas for the startup, with Ripple Custody posting customer growth of over 250% year-over-year growth this year and operating in over 20 countries. It counts the likes of HSBC, the Swiss arm of BBVA, Societe Generale and DBS as clients. Gambling that a growing number of real-world assets will become tradable as digital tokens in the future, Ripple said it will allow customers of its custody services to tokenize real-world assets — think fiat currencies, commodities like gold and oil or real estate — by using XRP Ledger. Ripple said that the integration with its XRP Ledger tech would give firms access to its own native decentralized exchange, a platform that helps match buyers and sellers of a range of digital assets without any middlemen involved for faster, low-fee trading.

BankThink: Cross-border payments don't need to be so complicated and expensive -- Community banks in rural Mexico cannot participate in money transfers between the U.S. and Mexico, which is one of the largest pipelines for remittances in the world, transferring a whopping $66 billion in 2023 alone. This is because these smaller, often independently owned banks don't have the clearing and transfer technology needed to accept or process paymentsacross country borders. Around the world, low-income communities are routinely cut off from modern payment infrastructures, causing serious economic harm. We must work toward a future in which they are included.

How Zelle fraud compares to other payment apps - By some measures, Zelle is a less popular target for scammers and fraudsters than other peer-to-peer, or P2P, payment platforms in the U.S., according to a variety of data sources. By others, it is a major offender — in line with its overall high usage. Depending on the data, Zelle can be seen either as a leading target for fraudsters and scammers, or better than average at stopping these criminals.

How banks can respond to pressure as payment fraud spikes -- Attention banks: liability for certain payments-related fraud could soon be dumped in your lap. As regulators and Congress push for stronger consumer protections as losses mount, payment experts say there are steps companies should be taking now to respond.

State regulators push back on Treasury call for federal payments rules -- A group representing state-level bank and financial regulators pushed back on the premise of an initiative put forth by Treasury Under Secretary for Domestic Finance Nellie Liang calling for a federal regulatory framework for domestic payments. The Conference of State Bank Supervisors cast doubt on an initiative unveiled by Treasury Under Secretary for Domestic Finance Nellie Liang that would establish a federal regulatory framework for domestic payments, saying that state-level supervision "does not … constitute a regulatory gap."

Tensions rise between banks and tech companies over online fraud liability in the UK - Tensions are escalating between banking and payment companies and social media firms in the U.K. over who should be liable for compensating people if they fall victim to fraud schemes online. Starting from Oct. 7, banks will be required to start compensating victims of so-called authorized push payment (APP) fraud a maximum £85,000 if those individuals affected were tricked or psychologically manipulated into handing over the cash. APP fraud is a form of a scam where criminals attempt to convince people to send them money by impersonating individuals or businesses selling a service. The £85,000 reimbursement sum could prove costly for large banks and payment firms. However, it's actually lower than the mandatory £415,000 reimbursement amount that the U.K.'s Payment Systems Regulator (PSR) had previously proposed. The PSR backed down from its bid for the lofty maximum compensation payout following industry backlash, with industry group the Payments Association in particular saying it would be far too costly a sum for the financial services sector to bear. But now that the mandatory fraud compensation is being rolled out in the U.K., questions are being asked about whether financial firms are facing the brunt of the cost for helping fraud victims. On Thursday, London-based digital bank Revolut accused Meta of falling "woefully short of what's required to tackle fraud globally." The Facebook-owner announced a partnership earlier this week with U.K. lenders NatWest and Metro Bank, to share intelligence on fraud activity that takes place on its platforms. Woody Malouf, Revolut's head of financial crime, said that Meta and other social media platforms should help cover the cost of reimbursing victims of fraud and that, by sharing no responsibility in doing so, "they have no incentive to do anything about it." Revolut's call for large tech platforms to financially compensate people who fall for scams on their websites and apps isn't new. Tensions have been running high between banks and tech companies for some time. Online fraud has risen dramatically over the last several years due to an acceleration in the usage of digital platforms to pay others and buy products online. In June, the Financial Times reportedthat the Labour Party had drafted proposals to force technology firms to reimburse victims of fraud that originates on their platforms. It is not clear whether the government still plans to require tech firms to pay compensation out to victims of APP fraud. Riccardo Tordera, director of policy and government relations at industry body the Payments Association, told CNBC that, given the "disproportionate amount" of fraud that happens on social media, it's "unacceptable" tech firms don't take a mandated responsibility for reimbursing fraud victims.

JPMorgan client who lost $50 million amid dementia denied trial - A once-wealthy JPMorgan Chase client whose portfolio crumbled as he slid into dementia lost a legal battle seeking to recoup his fortune from the bank. The case is one of the latest to question if firms can be held liable for costly investment decisions made by clients showing signs of mental decline.

Feds slap TD Bank with $3.1 billion in fines for money laundering of fentanyl trafficking and terrorist financing - TD Bank today pled guilty and agreed to pay over $1.8 billion in penalties to resolve the Justice Department’s investigation into violations of the Bank Secrecy Act (BSA) and failure to comply with anti-money laundering rules. Separately, the Financial Crimes Enforcement network penalized the New Jersey-based subsidiary of the Canadian banking giant $1.3 billion over the violations.At a press event this afternoon, U.S. attorney general Merrick Garland said TD Bank was the largest bank in U.S. history to plead guilty to Bank Secrecy Act failures, and the first bank in history to plead guilty to conspiracy to commit money laundering. “By making its services convenient for criminals, it became one,” he said. A statement from FinCEN called the $1.3 billion settlement “the largest penalty against a depository institution in U.S. Treasury and FinCEN history.” From January 2014 to October 2023, TD Bank had “long-term, pervasive, and systemic deficiencies in its U.S. AML policies, procedures, and controls,” according to the Department of Justice’s statement, “but failed to take appropriate remedial action.” Senior executives at TD Bank enforced a budget mandate, referred to internally as a “flat cost paradigm,” requiring that TD Bank’s budget not increase year-over-year, despite its profits and risk profile increasing significantly over the same period. Although TD Bank maintained elements of an AML program that appeared adequate on paper, regulators say fundamental and widespread flaws in its AML program made TD Bank an “easy target” for perpetrators of financial crime.This resulted in approximately $18.3 trillion of transaction activity from Jan. 1, 2018, to April 12, 2024 that went unmonitored, according to the statement. According to employees cited in the DOJ statement these failures made it “convenient” for criminals, allowing three money laundering networks to collectively transfer more than $670 million through TD Bank accounts between 2019 and 2023. From January 2018 to February 2021, one money laundering network processed more than $470 million through the bank through large cash deposits into nominee accounts. As part of the settlement, according to the FinCEN statement, TD Bank admitted that it willfully failed to implement and maintain an AML program that met the minimum requirements of the BSA and FinCEN’s implementing regulations. FinCEN says its investigation showed that TD Bank knew its AML program deficient. Among other failures, TD Bank processed transactions on Venmo and Zelle that were “indicative of human trafficking” and as a result of the deficiencies, “failed to identify and timely report these transactions” to the regulator.“The vast majority of financial institutions have partnered with FinCEN to protect the integrity of the U.S. financial system. TD Bank did the opposite,” said Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Wally Adeyemo in the statement. “From fentanyl and narcotics trafficking, to terrorist financing and human trafficking, TD Bank’s chronic failures provided fertile ground for a host of illicit activity to penetrate our financial system.”

TD Bank hit with record $3 billion fine over drug cartel money laundering, source says | CNN Business -- TD Bank will pay $3 billion to settle charges that it failed to properly monitor money laundering by drug cartels, regulators announced Thursday.The fine includes a $1.3 billion penalty that will be paid to the US Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, a record fine for a bank. TD also intends to pay $1.8 billion to the US Justice Department and plead guilty to resolve the US government’s investigation that the bank violated of the Bank Secrecy Act and allowed money laundering.The US Department of Justice said in a statement that TD Bank had “long-term, pervasive, and systemic deficiencies” in its procedures of monitoring transactions. The Wall Street Journal first reported the news late Wednesday.“By making its services convenient for criminals, it became one,” said Attorney General Merrick Garland, at a press conference Thursday.More than 90% of transactions went unmonitored between January 2018 to April 2024, which “enabled three money laundering networks to collectively transfer more than $670 million through TD Bank accounts,” according to a legal filing.“I want to be clear, these systemic failures did not just create hypothetical vulnerabilities, but they resulted in actual, material harm to American citizens and communities,” Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo said in a statement. “Time and again, unlike its peers, TD Bank prioritized growth and profit over complying with the law. The bank enabled drug trafficking.”In one instance, TD Bank employees collected more than $57,000 worth of gift cards to process more than $470 million in cash deposits from a money laundering network to “ensure employees would continue to process their transactions” and not declare them in required reports, the DoJ said.In a related statement, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), a US agency that regulates banks, said TD processed hundreds of millions of dollars of transactions the clearly indicated highly suspicious activity.“This is a difficult chapter in our bank’s history,” TD Bank CEO Bharat Masrani in a statement. “These failures took place on my watch as CEO and I apologize to all our stakeholders.” “We have taken full responsibility for the failures of our US [anti-money laundering] program and are making the investments, changes and enhancements required to deliver on our commitments,” Masrani added. TD is ramping up its anti-money laundering surveillance efforts, including the hiring of more than 700 new specialists with “experience and qualifications in money laundering prevention, financial crimes, and AML remediation,” as well deploying new processes to “better prevent, detect and measure financial crime risk,” the bank said.The Canadian bank will be subject to four years of monitoring by FinCEN to observe the lender more closely and ensure it is following the agreement.The US Federal Reserve also fined TD Bank and will force the company to relocate to the United States its anti-money laundering compliance office.And, in a significant part of the agreement, the OCC is restricting TD Bank’s growth in the United States. Although extraordinary, it is not unprecedented for a bank to be monitored and its growth restricted by the US government. Wells Fargo was saddled with similar restrictions on growth and a hefty fine for “widespread consumer abuses” in 2018 and has yet to convince regulators to remove that asset cap. Wells Fargo previously admitted that its workers responded to wildly unrealistic sales goals by creating as many as 3.5 million fake accounts.The tough penalties from regulators on Thursday caught Wall Street off guard. TD Bank’s (TD) US-listed shares slumped 6% as investors brace for higher legal expenses and weaker growth.TD ensured that it has adequate liquidity to pay the fine and continue operations. In a call with analysts, the bank said it expects a one-time charge of $1.5 billion after taxes and will reduce 10% of its assets to address the massive fine.

'Profits over compliance': TD takes record $3 billion guilty plea -- The sweeping enforcement actions will be a watershed event for TD's U.S. subsidiary, which had previously been a promising growth engine.

5 things to know about the TD Bank drug money laundering scandal -Toronto-Dominion Bank, commonly referred to as TD Bank, is facing unprecedented fines and penalties from U.S. officials after allegedly failing to stop hundreds of millions of dollars in drug money laundering. The bank agreed to pay more than $3 billion to various U.S. agencies and limit its growth until officials say TD Bank has done enough to fix its internal oversight issues. The U.S. may also force TD Bank to reduce its assets if it can’t shape up along the terms of the settlement. Here are five things to know about the TD Bank money laundering scandal.

• Money laundering networks moved $670M through TD accounts. Three money laundering networks took advantage of TD Bank’s alleged failures, moving more than $670 million through TD accounts between 2019 and 2023, according to the Department of Justice. During a six-year stretch from January 2018 through April 2024, the bank failed to monitor $18.3 trillion in customer activity — 92 percent of its total transaction volume. “TD Bank created an environment that allowed financial crimes to flourish. By making its services convenient for criminals, it became one,” Attorney General Merrick Garland said at a press conference Thursday.
• An ‘easy target’ for criminals. One scheme allegedly moved more than $470 million in illicit funds through TD Bank between January 2018 and February 2021 and bribed TD employees with more than $57,000 worth of gift cards, the government said. The individual behind the scheme, whom TD employees knew as David, “had attempted to launder money through numerous financial institutions, but he found that TD Bank had the most permissive policies and procedures and so chose to launder most of his funds there,” Garland said. The attorney general described David’s conduct as “obvious to say the least,” noting that he deposited more than $1 million in cash in a single day on multiple occasions that he immediately moved out of the bank using bank checks and wire transfers. In another scheme, five TD employees helped launder $39 million to Colombia. A third money laundering network maintained accounts for at least five shell companies at TD Bank that they used to transfer nearly $120 million.
• TD Bank makes unwelcome history. The bank is the largest in U.S. history to plead guilty to charges brought under the Bank Secrecy Act (BSA), which forces banks to keep records meant to prevent and detect financial crimes. TD Bank will also pay the largest fine issued for a BSA violation and is also the first bank to ever plead guilty to conspiracy to commit money laundering. “Our anti-money laundering laws dictate that a bank that willfully fails to protect against criminal schemes is also a criminal. That is what TD Bank was,” Garland said. The crackdown on TD Bank is the most aggressive federal action taken against a major bank since the historic penalties slapped on Wells Fargo in 2018. Wells Fargo was fined $1 billion and has been forced to cap its total assets at $1.9 trillion after a series of sales scandals.
• TD Bank may be forced to downsize. Like Wells Fargo, TD Bank will be subject to a cap on its assets, which will prevent the bank from growing beyond $434 billion — its asset level as of Sept. 30. But TD Bank may also be forced to shrink if it fails to make changes specified by federal bank regulators. If TD Bank can’t achieve those changes within a timeline set by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) — its main federal regulator — it will be forced to reduce its total assets by up to 7 percent. The OCC could ask TD Bank to make another cut of up to 7 percent for each year it fails to comply with the new order.
• Bank critics say more must be done. While the TD Bank settlement may be historic, it has done little to appease critics of the financial sector and policymakers who support stricter bank rules. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), a longtime critic of big banks, said the $3 billion in fines is simply “the cost of doing business” for a firm the size of TD Bank. “This settlement lets bank executives off the hook for allowing TD to be used as a criminal slush fund. @TheJusticeDept & @USOCC must do better in enforcing anti-money laundering laws.” Warren and other financial regulatory hawks have long called on agencies to break up big banks that violate laws.

TD Bank settlement shows that asset caps are here to stay - For the second time ever, an asset growth cap has been applied to a banking organization in the U.S. because of regulatory violations. Experts say that the move, while extreme, could indicate that regulators are prepared to deploy it when they feel it is warranted. The Canadian bank is indefinitely prohibited from growing assets at its two U.S. subsidiaries as the result of a sweeping settlement over money laundering violations. While only the second imposition of such a penalty ever, experts say it will not be the last.

A UniCredit takeover of Commerzbank would create stronger, more diversified group: Moody's Ratings - Nick Hill, managing director and co-head of global banking at Moody's Ratings, discusses Commerzbank and UniCredit's ratings in regards to a potential merger.

US Basel impasse casts doubt on international capital accord - As U.S. regulators grapple over a joint capital reform proposal, the future of international collaboration on bank supervision could hang in the balance. Europe's top finance ministers are questioning the U.S.'s commitment to the global capital standards. The mistrust could have consequences for international regulatory efforts.

The Fed is finally cutting rates, but banks aren't in the clear just yet --Falling interest rates are usually good news for banks, especially when the cuts aren't a harbinger of recession.That's because lower rates will slow the migration of money that's happened over the past two years as customers shifted cash out of checking accounts and into higher-yielding options like CDs and money market funds.When the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rate by half a percentage point last month, it signaled a turning point in its stewardship of the economy and telegraphed its intention to reduce rates by another 2 full percentage points, according to the Fed's projections, boosting prospects for banks.But the ride probably won't be a smooth one: Persistentconcerns over inflation could mean the Fed doesn't cut rates as much as expected and Wall Street's projections for improvements in net interest income — the difference in what a bank earns by lending money or investing in securities and what it pays depositors — may need to be dialed back."The market is bouncing around based on the fact that inflation seems to be reaccelerating, and you wonder if we will see the Fed pause," said Chris Marinac, research director at Janney Montgomery Scott, in an interview. "That's my struggle."So when JPMorgan Chase kicks off bank earnings on Friday, analysts will be seeking any guidance that managers can give on net interest income in the fourth quarter and beyond. The bank is expected to report $4.01 per share in earnings, a 7.4% drop from the year-earlier period.While all banks are expected to ultimately benefit from the Fed's easing cycle, the timing and magnitude of that shift is unknown, based on both the rate environment and the interplay between how sensitive a bank's assets and liabilities are to falling rates.Ideally, banks will enjoy a period where funding costs fall faster than the yields on income-generating assets, boosting their net interest margins.But for some banks, their assets will actually reprice down faster than their deposits in the early innings of the easing cycle, which means their margins will take a hit in the coming quarters, analysts say.For large banks, NII will fall by 4% on average in the third quarter because of tepid loan growth and a lag in deposit repricing, Goldman Sachs banking analysts led by Richard Ramsden said in an Oct. 1 note. Deposit costs for large banks will still rise into the fourth quarter, the note said.Last month, JPMorgan alarmed investors when its president said that expectations for NII next year were too high, without giving further details. It's a warning that other banks may be forced to give, according to analysts."Clearly, as rates go lower, you have less pressure on repricing of deposits," JPMorgan President Daniel Pinto told investors. "But as you know, we are quite asset sensitive."There are offsets, however. Lower rates are expected to help the Wall Street operations of big banks because they tend to see greater deal volumes when rates are falling. Morgan Stanley analysts recommend owning Goldman Sachs,Bank of America and Citigroup for that reason, according to a Sept. 30 research note.

FDIC proposal sparks overreach debate between critics and supporters— The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.'s proposed guidelines on corporate governance are problematic and could discourage talent from joining the boards of FDIC-regulated banks, state regulatory advocates and industry experts say. Tentative FDIC guidelines would impose stricter governance and risk management standards on banks exceeding $10 billion of assets, drawing concern over potential regulatory overreach and conflicts with state laws.

FDIC extends comment period on brokered deposits proposal -- The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. has extended the comment period for its proposal on brokered deposit restrictions that would potentially force banks to recategorize a large number of deposits. Banks now have until Nov. 21 to provide feedback on the FDIC's proposed rule on brokered deposits that could lead to higher costs for some insured depositories.

Dimon says regulators should reduce hurdles to going public Regulators in the United States and the U.K. should make it easier for companies to go public,JPMorgan Chase Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said. The JPMorgan Chase CEO said it's "odd" that there's been no commensurate rise in IPOs with the surge in public market valuations.

Biden urges SBA fund replenishment in Hurricane Milton's wake - President Joe Biden called on Congress to return to Washington to make sure Small Business Administration loans don't run out after Hurricanes Milton and Helene devastated large swaths of the Southeast.

Are Democrats Even a Little Serious About Stopping Private Equity? - By Maureen Tkacik - Ralph de la Torre, the abusive former cardiac surgeon who used other people’s money to buy some 43 community hospitals across the United States, then mortgaged them to buy yachts and planes and sumptuous accommodations on at least three continents, is not a man known for his sense of shame. In 2023, de la Torre hired a U.K.-based private intelligence firm called Audere International to orchestrate a “false flag operation” against one of his critics, the short seller stock analysis firm Viceroy Research. Audere in turn deployed a team of operatives to smear Viceroy founder Fraser Perring, including former spy and famed author of the Trump “pee tape” dossier Christopher Steele, whom the firm paid 29,000 pounds to prep British parliamentarian Liam Byrne for a speech he delivered to the House of Commons savaging Perring as an agent of the Kremlin who was working to undermine British defense contractors. Five security professionals from a firm called Greyprism staked out Perring’s house and installed a tracker on his car, and an unidentified team created a fake Twitter persona called @viceroyleaks to taunt Perring and his colleagues with vague threats, accusations, and references to a fellow short seller he had dated. But it wasn’t enough, a man professing to be a former Audere executive claimed in a recorded phone call. De la Torre wanted more, he told the intelligence firm’s principals, including the former executive, on a conference call. “He asked, how much would it cost to cut the brake lines on Fraser Perring’s car,” the executive said on the recording, a portion of which Perring provided to the Prospect after posting on X about the incident. “This is … just the type of person he is,” he went on. A Viceroy attorney said the executive had contacted Perring’s research firm last spring after leaving Audere over his disagreements with the firm’s conduct throughout the Steward project; in January, a trade publication reported that the intelligence firm had in recent months been plagued by departures. A spokesperson told the Prospect that “Dr. de la Torre vehemently denies making any such statements.” Last month, de la Torre was asked to appear before the Senate to answer questions about the financial decisions that led to the bankruptcy of his hospital chain, Steward Health (from which he stepped down as CEO this week). Instead he retained a new lawyer, William Burck, famous for representing Mike Pompeo, Steve Bannon, and New York Mayor Eric Adams, to file a lawsuit against Bernie Sanders, Bill Cassidy, and 18 other members of the 21-member Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions committee that had subpoenaed him, accusing the senators of violating his constitutional rights in the service of a show trial with “no legislative purpose.” Even veteran Ralph watchers were dumbfounded by the move. “The balls on this guy, galaxy balls,” one analyst said upon hearing the news. “Didn’t even show up to plead the Fifth, then sues committee for being held in contempt … it’s unreal.” But did his lawyers have a point? AS UNIQUELY AND UNAPOLOGETICALLY SHAMELESS as Ralph de la Torre is, he is not terribly unique from a business model perspective. He founded Steward with backing from Cerberus Capital Management in 2010, the year the Affordable Care Act passage triggered what would become a trillion-dollar stampede of private equity funds into hospitals, nursing homes, surgery centers, pediatric dental clinics, and so forth. An increasingly voluminous body of research has been published documenting the consequences of this craze: showing that private equity control of health care institutions is associated with a 27 percent increase in patient falls, a 38 percent increase in central line infections, a 10 percent increase in nursing home mortality, price increases ranging from 26 percent for anesthesiology practices to 90 percent for emergency medicine, etc. De la Torre’s cash-starved hospitals, for their part, were more than three times likelier than the average hospital be cited by CMS inspectors for placing the health of patients in “immediate jeopardy,” the most serious infraction. Last month, de la Torre was asked to appear before the Senate to answer questions about the financial decisions that led to the bankruptcy of his hospital chain, Steward Health (from which he stepped down as CEO this week). Instead he retained a new lawyer, William Burck, famous for representing Mike Pompeo, Steve Bannon, and New York Mayor Eric Adams, to file a lawsuit against Bernie Sanders, Bill Cassidy, and 18 other members of the 21-member Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions committee that had subpoenaed him, accusing the senators of violating his constitutional rights in the service of a show trial with “no legislative purpose.” Perhaps most significantly, the orgy of private equity buyouts was followed by a spate of service disruptions and facility shutdowns that left thousands jobless and made it more impossible for certain types of sick patients to find a hospital bed. Private equity extraction has closed hospitals across the country and nursing homes, maternity wards, and medical clinics in virtually every state, and with those closures have come a litany of headaches for public officials: massive job losses and attendant tax revenues, last-ditch deals to save community hospitals, bad headlines, calls from angry constituents, etc.And so over the past year or so, legislators across the country introduced a flurry of bills designed to subject health care transactions involving private investors to increased preemptive scrutiny, and in some cases protect the clinicians working in those institutions from having their clinical decisions directed by corporate bean-counters. The Oregon House of Representatives passed a bill outlawing a favored private equity trick of appointing “friendly doctors” as sham owners of medical institutions. The Minnesota House introduced a bill banning another favored private equity tactic of doing “sale-leasebacks” on hospital buildings and pocketing the proceeds for investors. The Massachusetts Senate passed a bill explicitly inspired by de la Torre and Steward, giving the state more powers to demand information about and block private equity health care transactions. And both houses of the California legislature passed bills strengthening the state’s corporate practice of medicine doctrine and subjecting private equity health care transactions to enhanced paperwork requirements and attorney general scrutiny. Sen. Ed Markey (D-MA), too, introduced a federal version of some of these bills, the Health Over Wealth Act, that would require private equity firms to get special HHS licenses before acquiring health care providers, and to subject such transactions to increased oversight.But one by one, all the state bills shriveled: The Oregon bill was killed by a fierce lobbying campaign and an unusually short legislative session; the Minnesota bill never made it to a vote; the Massachusetts bill passed the Senate but—rather unforgivably given that Gov. Maura Healey has admitted that bailing out just five of Steward’s hospitals will likely cost the state around $700 million—the bill never made it to a vote in the House. And then with a stroke of a pen last weekend, California Gov. Gavin Newsom killed off that state’s private equity health care oversight bill, which had passed both houses by overwhelming, ostensibly veto-proof margins, if the California legislature ever bothered to override a veto.

Dems renew effort to curb private equity with Stop Wall Street Looting Act -- A large group of congressional Democrats led by Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., are reintroducing the Stop Wall Street Looting Act, a bill that would crack down on private equity misconduct. The issue of how private equity interacts with consumer-facing businesses is getting more scrutiny among Democratic lawmakers and policymakers, including Democratic presidential nominee and Vice President Kamala Harris.

Taylor Swift is now the world’s richest female musician with $1.6 billion: Forbes --It’s time to write Taylor Swift’s name atop the list of the world’s wealthiest female music artists — the “Shake it Off” singer is now in the No. 1 spot, according to Forbes.The business magazine estimated in an update this week that Swift’s net worth comes in at $1.6 billion. The staggering figure surpassed the amount amassed by the previous holder of the title, Rihanna, who Forbes reported is worth $1.4 billion.The 34-year-old Swift, who made headlines last month with her high-profile endorsement of Vice President Harris in the White House race — reportedly became a billionaire last year because of earnings from her worldwide “The Eras Tour” and music catalog.On Forbes’s list of the world’s billionaires, Swift took 2,117th place. Her wealth comes in second among entertainers only to Jay-Z. The rapper and business mogul’s net worth totals $2.5 billion, the publication reported.

ICE Mortgage Monitor: Insurance Costs "Spike", Especially in Florida Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Insurance Costs "Spike", Especially in Florida
Brief excerpt: Press Release: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Average Payment Hits All-Time High; Spiking Insurance Costs Rising at 3X the Rate of Principal, Interest, and Taxes

• The average monthly payment (principal, interest, taxes and insurance, or PITI) among active mortgages hit a record $2,070 in August; up $140 (+7.2%) from last year and $399 (+19.3%) since the start of 2020
• Average PITI on loans originated in the last two years is $600 per month higher than that of 2020/2021 vintage mortgages, with two-thirds of each payment devoted to paying down interest
• In contrast, just 12% of the monthly payment among 2023/24 mortgages goes directly toward principal reduction – less than half the comparative average for other recent vintages
• Though older loans have lower PITI, 35% of those payments go toward variable costs, such as taxes and insurance, that are at risk of increase even as principal and interest components remain fixed
• All aspects of mortgage payments are rising as home prices, loan balances, interest rates and taxes have trended higher, with average principal, interest and tax payments up 15-17% since the start of 2020
• Increased property insurance costs stand out; the average monthly insurance payment is up 52% since the start of 2020, with increases in some higher-risk areas as high as 90% over that same period
• Rising premiums are due, in part, to higher home prices, but a direct comparison of mortgages analyzed shows a sharp jump from an average $4.65 per $1K covered from 2013-2022 to $5.38/$1K in July 2024
• In New Orleans and Miami, property insurance is ~$17/$1K in coverage, more than 3X the U.S average; higher costs also extend beyond hurricane zones and into the tornado and hail risk of the central states
• On average, insurance premiums account for 9.4% of monthly mortgage payments, up from less than 7.7% from 2013-2020, hitting their highest share on record
• In high-risk areas, property insurance can make up as much as 25% of the average mortgage holder’s overall monthly PITI payment

Here is a graph on delinquencies from ICE. Overall delinquencies decreased slightly in August and are below the pre-pandemic levels. Source: ICE McDash

• • The national delinquency rate fell 3 basis points (bps) to 3.34% in August, dropping 0.9% for the month but up 5.1% from last year
• • The number of borrowers a single payment past due dropped by -26K, while 60-day delinquencies rose marginally by 1K
• • Serious delinquencies (loans 90+ days past due but not in active foreclosure) rose 14K (+3.3%) to a six-month high, but remain historically low
• • Nearly 70% of seriously delinquent mortgages are still protected from foreclosure via either forbearance, loss mitigation, or bankruptcy

Here is a graph of the average annual insurance premium per $1,000 of coverage.

• • While rising insurance premiums are due, in part, to higher home prices, the cost per $1,000 of coverage has been rising sharply as well
• • For example, the annual insurance premium per $1,000 in coverage has risen from an average of $4.65 from 2013 – 2022 to $5.38 in July, up 12% ($0.57) over the past 19 months
• • It’s also worth noting that property insurance coverage amounts are typically based on replacement costs rather than the total underlying value of a home, with coverage amounts as a share of underlying home values shrinking from over 100% in 2013-2015 to 88% today

The largest insurance increases are in Florida (for obvious reasons). Please stay safe this week with Hurricane Milton!

• • While monthly principal, interest, and property tax obligations are up an average 15-17% since the beginning of 2020, the average monthly property insurance payment is up a whopping 52% over that same period
• • In New Orleans, as well as Florida markets such as Deltona, Jacksonville and Cape Coral, monthly property insurance payments increased more than 80%
• • Premiums also surged in areas with rising home values, including Utah; Boise, Idaho; and Midwest/Eastern Slope markets like Omaha, Denver and Colorado Springs, which have faced increased risks from tornados and hail damage

There is much more in the mortgage monitor.

Zillow adds climate risk data to home listings - Insured losses for Hurricane Helene are now estimated at over $6 billion, but the uninsured losses are far higher. That's because the vast majority of homes impacted by the storm, especially in hard-hit North Carolina, did not have flood insurance. New risk-assessment technology is designed to help change that for the future. Most homeowners in North Carolina do not have flood insurance, because they are not in flood zones designated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Government-backed mortgages require flood insurance in those designated areas. Just 4% of North Carolina homes are in a FEMA flood zone. But climate risk firm First Street, which incorporates the effects of climate change into its property risk scores, shows nearly 12% of homes in the state at flood risk. First Street just launched a suite of climate risk data for every for-sale property listed on Zillow. "Climate risks are now a critical factor in home buying decisions," said Skylar Olsen, chief economist at Zillow, in a release. "We're providing buyers and sellers with clear, property-specific climate data so they can make informed decisions. As concerns about flooding, extreme temperatures, and wildfires grow, this tool also helps agents inform their clients in discussing climate risk, insurance, and long-term affordability." Each for-sale listing on Zillow now displays First Street risk scores for flood, fire, wind, air and heat. They also show those same risk percentages estimated 15 years and 30 years into the future — the standard lengths for fixed-rate mortgages. On properties with some risk now, it often shows that risk rise over time, as First Street incorporates the effects of climate change. This is especially true for the flood risk, because climate change is already intensifying the severity of rainfall, even in minor storms. The data also includes a recommendation as to whether the homeowner should have flood insurance and a link to the First Street site, which will help estimate insurance costs. "A lot of people think that they are safe from flood if they're not in a FEMA flood zone, and that's decidedly not true. Heavy rainfall can affect many, many people across the country, and there's no indication from the FEMA flood zone designation that that is a risk for you," said Ed Kearns, chief science officer at First Street. "We've created these new flood maps that do bring that into account, that will allow consumers to make that informed choice about whether they need flood insurance." More than 80% of buyers now consider climate risk when purchasing a home, according to a survey by Zillow. Respondents ranked flood risk as their highest concern, followed by fire. A Zillow analysis of August listings found that more homes nationwide had a major climate risk than did those listed for sale five years ago. That was true across all five climate risk categories, the analysis found. For new listings in August, 16.7% are at major wildfire risk and 12.8% show a major risk of flooding, according to Zillow and First Street data. As more and more consumers consult these climate scores in their purchase decisions, the effect on home values will surely increase. The cost of insurance is already factored into home prices, and as both the cost and necessity of insurance rise, home values in the most affected areas will fall. "I think that's going to be the most direct impact of having scores on homes that quantify risk is that there may be some direct impact on real estate values, but a lot of that is going to go through the amount of insurance necessary to cover that home," Kearns added.

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey --From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey - Mortgage applications decreased 5.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending October 4, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 5.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 9 percent from the previous week and was 159 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 0.1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 0.1 percent compared with the previous week and was 8 percent higher than the same week one year ago. “In the wake of stronger economic data last week, including the September jobs report, mortgage rates moved higher, with the 30-year fixed rate rising to 6.36 percent – the highest since August,” . “Conventional loan refinances, which tend to have larger balances than government loans and hence are more responsive for a given change in mortgage rates, fell to a greater extent over the week. Purchase application volume was little changed over the week and was 8 percent above last year’s level.” “The largest constraint for many prospective homebuyers over the past year had been the lack of inventory. Now, there are more homes available in many markets across the country, and with mortgage rates still low compared to recent history, at least some potential homebuyers are moving ahead.” ... The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) increased to 6.36 percent from 6.14 percent, with points increasing to 0.62 from 0.61 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index. According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 8% year-over-year unadjusted. Purchase application activity is up about 19% from the lows in late October 2023, but still about 1% below the lowest levels during the housing bust. The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index increased significantly recently as mortgage rates declined but decreased slightly over the last two weeks with as rates increased.

Housing Oct 7th Weekly Update: Inventory up 0.4% Week-over-week, Up 36.7% Year-over-year - Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.4% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 48.6% from the February seasonal bottom. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 36.7% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 36.7%), and down 23.1% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 23.4%). Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is closing. This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of October 4th, inventory was at 734 thousand (7-day average), compared to 731 thousand the prior week. This is the highest level of inventory since May 2020. Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.

House Prices to Income - Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: House Prices to Income A brief excerpt: One of the metrics we'd like to follow is a ratio of house prices to incomes. Unfortunately, most income data is released with a significantly lag, and there are always questions about which income data to use (the average total income is skewed by the income of a few people). And for key measures of house prices - like Case-Shiller - we have indexes, not actually prices. But we can construct a ratio of the house price indexes to some measures of income. For the following graph I decided to look at house prices and the National Average Wage Index released this morning for 2023 from Social Security. The National Average Wage Index increased to $66,621.80 in 2023, up 4.43% from $63,795.13 in 2022. This was the third consecutive year with strong wage gains, and wages are up almost 20% over the last 3 years. The last time we saw 3-year wage gains this high was in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Another reason to compare the current housing cycle to the 1978 to 1982 period (not the housing bubble and bust).

Moody's: Retail Vacancy Rate Decreased Slightly in Q3 - Note: I covered apartments and offices in the newsletter: Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Unchanged in Q3; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High From Moody’s Analytics economists: Multifamily Performance Steadied, Office Stress Continued to Manifest, Retail Vacancy Declined, And Industrial Cooled DownThe Q3 2024 data indicated a slight decrease in the longstanding 10.4% vacancy rate for the retail sector, dropping to 10.3% this quarter. Asking rents saw a marginal increase of 0.3% to $21.85, while effective rents rose by 0.4% to $24.87 per square foot. Consumer spending in the third quarter has thus far exceeded expectations, particularly in July, which experienced a 1.1% increase. Although August saw a modest 0.1% increase, it surpassed the anticipated -0.2% decrease. These results were propelled by robust performance in online purchases and core retail sales, excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials, and food services, alongside a decline in the unemployment rate following four consecutive monthly increases.This graph shows the strip mall vacancy rate starting in 1980 (prior to 2000 the data is annual). Back in the '80s, there was overbuilding in the mall sector even as the vacancy rate was rising. This was due to the very loose commercial lending that led to the S&L crisis. In the mid-'00s, mall investment picked up as mall builders followed the "roof tops" of the residential boom (more loose lending). This led to the vacancy rate moving higher even before the recession started. Then there was a sharp increase in the vacancy rate during the recession and financial crisis.Recently the vacancy rate has held fairly steady at a high level as online shopping continues to impact brick and mortar stores.

BLS: CPI Increased 0.2% in September; Core CPI increased 0.3% -- From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in August and July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.4 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for shelter rose 0.2 percent in September, and the index for food increased 0.4 percent. Together, these two indexes contributed over 75 percent of the monthly all items increase. The food at home index increased 0.4 percent in September and the food away from home index rose 0.3 percent over the month. The energy index fell 1.9 percent over the month, after declining 0.8 percent the preceding month. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in September, as it did the preceding month. Indexes which increased in September include shelter, motor vehicle insurance, medical care, apparel, and airline fares. The indexes for recreation and communication were among those that decreased over the month. The all items index rose 2.4 percent for the 12 months ending September, the smallest 12-month increase since February 2021. The all items less food and energy index rose 3.3 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index decreased 6.8 percent for the 12 months ending September. The food index increased 2.3 percent over the last year. The change in CPI was slightly above expectations. I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.

Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.3% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.3% in September - The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI.
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in September. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.3%. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report". This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 4.1% (down from 4.2% in August), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.2% (unchanged from 3.2%), and the CPI less food and energy rose 3.3% (up from 3.2%). Core PCE is for August was up 2.7% YoY, up from 2.6% in July. Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details. Motor fuel decreased at a 39% annual rate in September.

YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter - Here are a few measures of inflation: The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year. This declined and is now up 4.4% YoY. This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through September 2024. Services were up 4.7% YoY as of September 2024, down from 4.8% YoY in August. Services less rent of shelter was up 4.4% YoY in September, up from 4.3% YoY in August.The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions. Durables were at -2.9% YoY as of September 2024, up from -4.2% YoY in August. Commodities less food and energy commodities were at -1.2% YoY in September, up from -1.7% YoY in August.Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report (through September) and housing from the PCE report (through August) Shelter was up 4.8% year-over-year in September, down from 5.2% in August. Housing (PCE) was up 5.3% YoY in August, up from 5.2% in July.The BLS noted this morning: "The index for shelter rose 0.2 percent in September, and the index for food increased 0.4 percent. Together, these two indexes contributed over 75 percent of the monthly all items increase." This is still catching up with private data. Core CPI ex-shelter was up 2.0% YoY in September.

Cost of Living Adjustment increases 2.5% in 2025, Contribution Base increased to $176,100 - With the release of the CPI report this morning, we now know the Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA), and the contribution base for 2025. From Social Security: Social Security Announces 2.5 Percent Benefit Increase for 2025 Social Security benefits and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments for more than 72.5 million Americans will increase 2.5 percent in 2025, the Social Security Administration announced today. On average, Social Security retirement benefits will increase by about $50 per month starting in January. Over the last decade the COLA increase has averaged about 2.6 percent. The COLA was 3.2 percent in 2024. ... Some other adjustments that take effect in January of each year are based on the increase in average wages. Based on that increase, the maximum amount of earnings subject to the Social Security tax (taxable maximum) is slated to increase to $176,100 from $168,600. Currently CPI-W is the index that is used to calculate the Cost-Of-Living Adjustments (COLA). Here is a discussion from Social Security on the current calculation (2.5% increase) and a list of previous Cost-of-Living Adjustments. The contribution and benefit base will be $168,600 in 2024. The National Average Wage Index increased to $ 66,621.80 in 2023, up 4.4% from $63,795.13 in 2022 (used to calculate contribution base).

Wholesale Used Car Prices Decreased in September; Down 5.3% Year-over-year - From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Declined in September - Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were lower in September compared to August. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) fell to 203.0, a decline of 5.3% from a year ago. The seasonal adjustment to the index amplified the change for the month, as non-seasonally adjusted values fell slightly. The non-adjusted price in September decreased by 0.1% compared to August, moving the unadjusted average price down 4.9% year over year. This index from Manheim Consulting is based on all completed sales transactions at Manheim’s U.S. auctions.The Manheim index suggests used car prices decreased in September (seasonally adjusted) and were down 5.3% year-over-year (YoY).

Trade Deficit Decreased to $70.4 Billion in August - The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $70.4 billion in August, down $8.5 billion from $78.9 billion in July, revised. August exports were $271.8 billion, $5.3 billion more than July exports. August imports were $342.2 billion, $3.2 billion less than July imports. Exports increased and imports decreased in August. Exports are up 5.1% year-over-year; imports are up 7.6% year-over-year. Both imports and exports decreased sharply due to COVID-19 and then bounced back - imports and exports have generally increased recently. The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products. Note that net, exports of petroleum products are positive and have been increasing. The trade deficit with China increased to $27.9 billion from $25.9 billion a year ago.

AAR: Rail Carloads Down YoY in September, Intermodal Up --From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Year-to-date total carloads in 2024 through September were down 3.3% (285,871 carloads) from last year and down 3.0% from the first nine months of 2022. So far in 2024, total carloads fell on a year over-year basis every month except August. ... Year-to-date U.S. intermodal in 2024 through September was 10.2 million units, up 9.5% (882,064 units) over last year and the fourth highest January-September total ever. This graph from the Rail Time Indicators report shows the six-week average for carloads for the last 3 years. Total carloads were down 0.5% in September YoY. Carloads excluding coal were more promising: they were up 2.9% in Q3 2024 over Q3 2023, suggesting continued appetite for rail transportation. Excluding coal, total carloads were 1.4% (86,782 carloads) higher in the first nine months of 2024 than in the same period in 2023.And on Intermodal: U.S. intermodal originations in September 2024 were up 10.7% (108,257 containers and trailers) over September 2023, marking more than a year of consecutive year-over-year gains. In Q3 2024, intermodal was up 11.0% over Q3 2023, the biggest year-over-year percentage gain for a quarter since Q2 2021. Total intermodal originations averaged 274,500 in Q3 2024. Only 2018 had a better third quarter for total intermodal. Note: rail traffic was weak even before the pandemic. As AAR noted: "Trade tensions and declining mfrg. output lead to lower rail volumes" in 2019.

GM halts production at two major U.S. plants due to Hurricane Helene— General Motors has temporarily halted vehicle production at two U.S. factories that assemble highly profitable large pickups and SUVs due to impacts to suppliers as a result of Hurricane Helene.The automaker canceled shifts Thursday and Friday at a plant in Flint, Michigan, that produces its heavy-duty trucks as well as at Arlington Assembly in Texas, which produces full-size SUVs such as the Chevrolet Tahoe, Cadillac Escalade and GMC Yukon.A GM spokeswoman declined to speculate on when the plants were expected to restart production as of Friday morning. A Thursday message to workers in Arlington viewed by CNBC said production at that plant was expected to resume Monday."We are working with these suppliers to resume operations as quickly and safely as possible for their employees and communities, as we seek to minimize impacts on our plants," GM said in an emailed statement. Hurricane Helene made landfall in Florida late last week and hit the southeastern United States and parts of western North Carolina particularly hard. At least 215 people have died and hundreds are still missing.GM declined to disclose what suppliers are impacted or where they are located. Jeffrey Morrison, GM vice president of global purchasing and supply chain, on Thursday said the hurricane and the port workers strike were disruptive events for the automaker. The strike ended later Thursday and dockworkers returned to the job Friday.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 258,000 -The DOL reported: In the week ending October 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 258,000, an increase of 33,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 225,000. This is the highest level for initial claims since August 5, 2023 when it was 258,000. The 4-week moving average was 231,000, an increase of 6,750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 224,250. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 231,000. The previous week was unrevised. Weekly claims were above the consensus forecast. The increase this week is partially hurricane related, for example North Carolina had a sharp increase in initial claims from 2,941 the prior week to 11,475 in the week ending Oct 5th.

Georgia Supreme Court reinstates 6-week abortion ban -- Georgia’s Supreme Court on Monday reinstated the state’s six-week abortion ban, halting a ruling from a trial court judge from just one week ago that had overturned the law. The order takes effect at 5 p.m. Monday, and will remain in place while the state’s appeal is heard. Fulton County Superior Court Judge Robert McBurney on Sept. 30 ruled the state constitution’s guaranteed right to “liberty” includes a person’s right to make decisions about their own health care. “Whether one couches it as liberty or privacy (or even equal protection), this dispute is fundamentally about the extent of a woman’s right to control what happens to and within her body” and to reject state interference with her health care choices, he wrote. The state appealed the ruling two days later. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) signed the ban into law in 2019, but implementation had been blocked until the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022. The law banned abortion after fetal cardiac activity was detected, which is usually about six weeks into pregnancy, before many people know they are pregnant. The state Supreme Court left in place part of the trial court’s ruling blocking a separate provision of the law giving state district attorneys broad access to the medical records of abortion patients in their respective counties. Monica Simpson, executive director of SisterSong Women of Color Reproductive Justice Collective, one of the plaintiffs in the case, said the court’s ruling was “unconscionable.” “Every minute this harmful six-week abortion ban is in place, Georgians suffer,” Simpson said in a statement. “Despite all evidence that this ban is killing us, the Court sided with those more interested in limiting our access to care than seeing us live and thrive. The right to bodily autonomy transcends partisanship; it’s a human right that every Georgian deserves.”

US Department of Justice investigation finds Texas juvenile detention system tortures children - The US Department of Justice released a devastating report on August 1 on the juvenile detention system in Texas, which is maintained by the Texas Juvenile Justice Department (TJJD), detailing rampant and systemic physical, sexual and psychological abuse of children by TJJD staff under the guise of rehabilitation and reintegration. A little over two months after the report was released, Shandra Carter, executive director of the TJJD, was given a $34,000 pay raise by the TJJD board, resulting in a total salary of $261,352, confirming the abuse is in fact the policy of the government. The agency houses 66 percent of incarcerated children in the state. The children against whom the state government commits these crimes are some of the most vulnerable in society, who are, on average, seven grades behind their peers. Ninety-one percent of the girls incarcerated are identified as clear or possible concerns for being victims of sex trafficking. The titles of the report’s chapters give an idea of the crimes committed by the TJJD against these children. The first chapter is titled, “TJJD uses excessive force on children,” and it has the subchapters “1.1 TJJD harms children by using pepper spray excessively and without adequate decontamination procedures,” and “1.2 TJJD harms children by using excessive physical force and dangerous restraint techniques.” The Justice Department report says that the TJJD uses force that causes “the unnecessary and wanton infliction of pain,” which it correctly states “violates the Constitution.” A review of video footage and incident reports revealed staff routinely use force that causes “the unnecessary and wanton infliction of pain” and is “excessive to any legitimate government purpose. This violates children’s constitutional rights.” Staff used pepper spray on numerous occasions in 2022 on children, with little to no attempt to “engage verbally” with the children in question. Some of the children were handcuffed at the time. More recently, former TJJD staff Ron Jackson was charged with assault and indicted on the charge of official oppression in February 2024 after both surveillance camera and body camera footage showed him “lift a child up and slam him to the floor, causing a laceration above the child’s eye and a concussion.” In another instance, two Evins [Regional Juvenile Center in Edinburg] staff were charged with criminal offenses after body cam and surveillance footage showed them “slamming a child’s head into a brick pillar, knocking him unconscious.” The child was handcuffed with his hands behind his back. To add insult to injury, one of the staff allegedly turned off their body cameras and spat on the child before they dragged the boy to solitary confinement (called RSU). Other instances of physical abuse include the use of dangerous physical restraint typically used by police forces, such as kneeling on childrens’ backs and torsos, which can easily lead to cardiac arrest. Numerous people are killed each year in such a manner by police in the US, such as in the infamous case of George Floyd in 2020 by Minneapolis police in Minnesota and Kenneth Knotts in 2023 in Texas. Chapter 2 is titled “TJJD harms children through excessive use of isolation.” Its subchapters include “2.1 Children spend excessively long periods in RSU under unnecessarily restrictive conditions.” Subchapter 2.2 reads “Children are isolated for excessively long periods of time in the general population units.” The report cites from the National Commission on Correctional Health Care, which stated in a 2016 position statement that for children, “time spent in solitary confinement [is] even more difficult and the developmental, psychological, and physical damage more comprehensive and lasting. They experience time differently—a day for a child feels longer than a day to an adult—and have a greater need for social stimulation.” Of note is a section of the report which states that “Although TJJD policy appropriately limits most initial RSU admissions to one to two hours, we found many instances where children spent days or weeks in the RSU. In some cases, TJJD placed children there for non-behavioral reasons.” It further notes that children typically spent “22-23 hours a day in their cells, with some children spending twenty-four hours a day there.” Children are regularly spending 17-22 hours per day alone locked in their cells in general population units as well. It is worth citing an excerpt from the United Nations Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) on this specific part: The Mandela Rules, updated in 2015, are a revised minimum standard of UN rules that defines solitary confinement as “the confinement of prisoners for 22 hours or more a day without meaningful human contact.” Solitary confinement may only be imposed in exceptional circumstances, and “prolonged” solitary confinement of more than 15 consecutive days is regarded as a form of torture. Under the definition provided by OHCHR and the Justice Department’s findings, it can be reasonably said that the Texas government is routinely and consistently torturing children in its detention centers.

FAA allows Oklahoma schools to train new air traffic controllers - The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) announced Wednesday it will be allowing two Oklahoma schools to move forward with programs that would allow new air traffic controllers to skip the agency’s training academy. Tulsa Community College and the University of Oklahoma will be the first to administer the “Enhanced Air Traffic – Collegiate Training Initiative (AT-CTI).” The FAA said the college program will offer the same curriculum and technology as the FAA Air Traffic Controller Academy in Oklahoma City and will create a greater pipeline of air traffic controllers as the industry struggles with personnel shortages and burnout. “The FAA is working to hire and train more air traffic controllers, in order to reverse the decades-long decline in our workforce and ensure the safety of the flying public. The Enhanced AT-CTI program is an important part of that effort,” agency Administrator Michael Whitaker said. “We’re excited to have these schools become pioneers in this initiative and look forward to seeing more applications from schools as we build out these partnerships.” Those who participate in the program will skip the FAA’s academy and go straight to facility training after graduation. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg had also said earlier this year that the agency needs more air traffic controllers. “If you look at just a chart over the last 30 years or so, the number of air traffic controllers has gone down and down and down, until recently where we finally got that number going up,” Buttigieg said. “We hired 1,500, then 1,800 in this year. We’re requesting a budget from Congress and let us hire 2,000 next year so that you don’t have as much of this concern about controllers being overworked,” he added. In April, the FAA announced new regulations intended to combat air traffic controller fatigue.

Brown votes against student proposal to divest from companies allegedly connected to war in Gaza -- Brown University announced Thursday it will not divest from companies that pro-Palestinian students say contribute to Israel’s war efforts in Gaza. The Corporation of Brown University decided against the measure Tuesday after agreeing in the spring to listen to a student proposal on divestment and take a vote on it in exchange for the activists’ encampment coming down. The board voted in support of Brown’s Advisory Committee on University Resources Management’s (ACURM) recommendation against divestment. “In particular, Corporation members noted ACURM’s finding that Brown’s exposure to the 10 companies identified in the divestment proposal is de minimis, that Brown has no direct investments in any of the companies targeted for divestment and that any indirect exposure for Brown in these companies is so small that it could not be directly responsible for social harm, as defined in ACURM’s charge,” University Chancellor Brian Moynihan and President Christina Paxson said in a letter to campus. “These findings alone are sufficient reason to support ACURM’s recommendation,” they added. The corporation also discussed whether a vote to divest would send a political message to the university that would squander free thought. “The Corporation reaffirmed that Brown’s mission is to discover, communicate and preserve knowledge. It is not to adjudicate or resolve global conflicts,” the letter reads. The move is a major disappointment for the Brown Divest Coalition group after the school had been one of the few to negotiate successfully with its student activists.

CFPB bans arbitration platform for deceiving student borrowers - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has banned a dispute resolution platform, Ejudicate, after the Los Angeles company misled student borrowers and initiated arbitration proceedings without their consent. Los Angeles dispute res olution platform Ejudicate was banned by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau for forcing borrowers into arbitration with an affiliated creditor.

Penicillin allergies pose problem for nursing home residents, study suggests --A study of long-term care (LTC) facilities in Massachusetts found that residents with a documented penicillin allergy were 95% less likely to receive beta-lactam antibiotics, researchers reported yesterday in Antimicrobial Stewardship & Healthcare Epidemiology.For the study, researchers from Tufts University and the Massachusetts Department of Public Health analyzed data on antibiotic prescriptions and penicillin allergies at 20 LTC facilities across the state. The aim of the study was to measure the impact of documented penicillin allergies on the prescribing patterns of beta-lactam antibiotics in LTC facilities, where an estimated 50% to 75% of residents receive at least on antibiotic annually. Previous research has shown that penicillin allergy labels are frequently inaccurate and can result in the selection of broader-spectrum antibiotics, which contribute to antimicrobial resistance and have an increased risk of side effects."Inaccurate penicillin allergy labeling poses a critical health threat in this vulnerable population because older individuals are more susceptible to mortality from multidrug-resistant infections and adverse effects from broad-spectrum antibiotics," the study authors wrote.Among 2,345 LTC residents, 449 (19.1%) received an antibiotic, and 156 of the antibiotic recipients (34.7%) had a documented penicillin allergy. The primary indications for antibiotic prescriptions were urinary tract infections (UTIs) (45.4%), respiratory tract infections (RTIs) (29.2%), and skin and soft-tissue infections (SSTIs) (18.5%). Beta-lactams accounted for 45.5% of all antibiotic prescriptions.

Researchers say life expectancy nearing its limit --Humanity is hitting the upper limit of life expectancy, according to a new study. Advances in medical technology and genetic research—not to mention larger numbers of people making it to age 100—are not not translating into marked jumps in lifespan overall, according to researchers who found shrinking longevity increases in countries with the longest-living populations."We have to recognize there's a limit" and perhaps reassess assumptions about when people should retire and how much money they'll need to live out their lives, said S. Jay Olshansky, a University of Illinois-Chicago researcher who was lead author of the study published Monday by the journal Nature Aging.Mark Hayward, a University of Texas researcher not involved in the study, called it "a valuable addition to the mortality literature.""We are reaching a plateau" in life expectancy, he agreed. It's always possible some breakthrough could push survival to greater heights, "but we don't have that now," Hayward said.Life expectancy is an estimate of the average number of years a baby born in a given year might expect to live, assuming death rates at that time hold constant. It is one of the world's most important health measures, but it is also imperfect: It is a snapshot estimate that cannot account for deadly pandemics, miracle cures or other unforeseen developments that might kill or save millions of people.In the new research, Olshansky and his research partners tracked life expectancy estimates for the years 1990 to 2019, drawn from a database administered by the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. The researchers focused on eight of the places in the world where people live the longest—Australia, France, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain and Switzerland.The U.S. doesn't even rank in the top 40. But is also was included "because we live here" and because of past, bold estimates that life expectancy in the U.S. might surge dramatically in this century, Olshansky said.Women continue to live longer than men and life expectancy improvements are still occurring—but at a slowing pace, the researchers found. In 1990, the average amount of improvement was about 2 1/2 years per decade. In the 2010s, it was 1 1/2 years—and almost zero in the U.S.The U.S. is more problematic because it is harder hit by a range of issues that kill people even before they hit old age, including drug overdoses, shootings, obesity and inequities that make it hard for some people to get sufficient medical care.But in one calculation, the researchers estimated what would happen in all nine places if all deaths before age 50 were eliminated. The increase at best was still only 1 1/2 years, Olshansky said.Eileen Crimmins, a University of Southern California gerontology expert, said in an email that she agrees with the study's findings. She added, "For me personally, the most important issue is the dismal and declining relative position of the United States." The study suggests that there's a limit to how long most people live, and we've about hit it, Olshansky said. "We're squeezing less and less life out of these life-extending technologies. And the reason is, aging gets in the way," he said.

Study links COVID infection to heart attacks, strokes -New research shows COVID-19 infections increase the risk of heart attack, stroke, and death, in some cases doubling the likelihood of major cardiac events in the 3 years following infection.The findings are published in the American Heart Association journal Arteriosclerosis, Thrombosis, and Vascular Biology."These findings reveal while it’s an upper respiratory tract infection, COVID-19 has a variety of health implications and underscores that we should consider history of prior COVID-19 infection when formulating cardiovascular disease preventive plans and goals," said study author Stanley Hazen, MD, PhD, chair of cardiovascular and metabolic sciences in Cleveland Clinic’s Lerner Research Institute, in a press release from Cleveland Clinic.To conduct the study, researchers at Cleveland Clinic and the University of Southern California used UK Biobank data from 10,005 people who had COVID-19 and 217,730 people who did not get infected between February and December 2020. The UK Biobank tracked 503,325 adults living in the United Kingdom who were 40 to 69 years old at enrollment between 2006 and 2010.Outcomes were major adverse cardiovascular events, including heart attack, stroke, and all-cause death through October 31, 2022, approximately 3 years after COVID infection. Overall, the risk of a major cardiac event was elevated in COVID-19 patients at all levels of severity (hazard ratio [HR], 2.09; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.94 to 2.25]) and to a greater extent, in those hospitalized for COVID-19 (HR, 3.85; 95% CI, 3.51 to 4.24), the authors said.In fact, the authors found that hospitalization for COVID-19 was a bigger risk factor for a cardiac event than having cardiovascular disease without COVID-19. Patients with COVID-19 had a 21% greater risk of heart attack, stroke, and death than people with cardiovascular disease without COVID-19 infection.In a further analysis using UK Biobank data, the researchers also looked at how and if blood types influenced cardiac outcomes after COVID-19. Overall, non-O blood types (A, B, A/B) were more likely to suffer a major cardiac event after hospitalization, with an increased risk of thrombotic events in study participants with non-O blood types (HR, 1.65; 95% CI, 1.29 to 2.09)."The association uncovered by our research indicates a potential interaction between the virus and the piece of our genetic code that determines blood type and signals the need for further investigation," Hazen said."A better understanding of what COVID-19 does at the molecular level may potentially teach us about pathways linked to cardiovascular disease risk." The study authors said 60% of the world’s population has a non-O blood type and thus may be at increased risk for cardiac events following COVID-19 infection.

Data: COVID reinfection in unvaccinated more severe than breakthrough infections The rate of hospitalization and death is significantly higher after COVID-19 reinfection among unvaccinated US veterans than after breakthrough infection among never-infected vaccine recipients, according to an analysis published yesterday in The Journal of Infectious Diseases. Researchers from the Veterans Affairs (VA) Pittsburgh Healthcare System and Weill Cornell Medical College created 13,976 matched pairs of vaccinated adults never infected with COVID-19 and unvaccinated COVID-19 survivors using the VA COVID-19 National Database. The median age was 56 years, 91% were men, and 80% were White. Vaccination was considered receipt of at least two doses of an mRNA vaccine. Of the vaccinated group, 39% had completed only the primary vaccine series, and 61% had also received at least one booster dose.Among 13,976 vaccinated veterans not previously infected with COVID-19, 11.2% had a breakthrough infection; among them, 11.8% were hospitalized or died within 28 days. Of the 13,976 unvaccinated, previously infected veterans, 18.3% experienced a reinfection; of them, 17.3% were hospitalized or died.The rate of breakthrough infection in vaccinated participants resembled that of reinfected unvaccinated participants (0.30 and 0.31 per 1,000 person-days, respectively). "While overall rates were similar, it is important to note that unvaccinated high-risk subgroups, including those 65 years or older, and those with a higher comorbidity burden were more likely to develop reinfection compared with vaccinated individuals who had a lower rate of breakthrough infections," the researchers wrote.The hospitalization and death incidence, however, was much higher after reinfection than after breakthrough infection (7.31 vs 4.69). Vaccinated participants were more likely to experience severe infection if they had received their last dose more than 3 months before. "This may suggest that vaccination provides stronger earlier protection against reinfection compared with natural infection," the study authors wrote. "The observation of lower reinfection rates 3 and 6 months after first infection compared with breakthrough infection 3 and 6 months after vaccination may indicate longer protection duration from natural infection but may also indicate a depletion of vulnerable individuals early on among the reinfected group." This finding has several possible explanations. "Survivors of an initial natural COVID-19 infection may experience severe consequences of infection, which may exacerbate pre-existing comorbidities or lead to development of new comorbidities, which may predispose these individuals to more severe outcomes after reinfection," they wrote. "Conversely, COVID-19 vaccination may prevent such consequences."Some demographic and behavioral factors may also indirectly protect vaccinated people against severe outcomes. "For example, vaccine acceptance is higher among individuals with higher socioeconomic status and those who also receive other preventive health services like influenza vaccination," the researchers wrote."Finally, the immunity generated by natural infection may be quite variable depending on viral and host factors, e.g. severity of initial illness, viral variant, and immune status of the individual," they added.

Study shows fatigue prominent feature of long COVID -Results from an online survey in Denmark describe fatigue and post-exertional malaise as prominent features 2 to 18 months after COVID-19 infections for both mild and severe cases. The study appeared today JAMA Network Open.The study was based on responses from 50,115 individuals (median age 57), of whom 25,249 (50.4%) were test positive and 24,866 (49.6%) were test negative at the time of study enrollment. The participants completed repeated, self-reported online questionnaires that collected information on fatigue."The index test date for the majority of test-positive and test-negative participants took place during the Omicron-dominant period," the authors said.When compared to COVID test-negative participants, test-positive participants had a significant 3% increase in scores for fatigue compared with test-negative participants (score ratio [SR] 1.0; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03 to 1.04). The test-positive participants also had higher odds of self-reported postexertional malaise (odds ratio, 2.04; 95% CI, 1.81 to 2.30).Participants who were hospitalized with COVID-19 had increased fatigue scores by 23% (SR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.20 to 1.26) compared with test-negative participants."Of the possible predisposing factors explored, acute SARS-CoV-2 hospitalization had the greatest impact on fatigue scores," the authors concluded. Contrary to other findings, the authors said their study did not show a link between preexisting psychiatric conditions and long COVID fatigue."We observed a greater risk of PCC [post–COVID-19 condition] fatigue symptoms among individuals who tested positive during the Alpha wave, when most were not yet vaccinated," the authors concluded. "Persons who had received no or only 1 vaccine dose before testing had higher SRs across several follow-up points, compared with persons who had received 2 or 3 doses."

Brain imaging reveals changes linked to long COVID - Using ultra-powered magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), researchers from the Universities of Cambridge and Oxford have demonstrated that COVID-19 infections can damage the brainstem, the brain’s "control center." The findings are published in Brain. The study was based on the MRI images of 30 people who had been hospitalized with severe COVID-19 before the availability of COVID-19 vaccines. The images were captured with a 7-Tesla machine, which can measure inflammation levels in the brain. Typically, brainstems can only be imaged postmortem, but the 7-Tesla allows researchers to look at the nuclei of brainstems in living participants.“Things happening in and around the brainstem are vital for quality of life, but it had been impossible to scan the inflammation of the brainstem nuclei in living people, because of their tiny size and difficult position.” said first author Catarina Rua, PhD, in a press release from the University of Cambridge. The COVID patients were scanned 93 to 548 days after hospital admission for COVID-19, and their images were compared to 51 age-matched controls without a history of COVID-19 infection. Among the 30 participants, breathlessness, fatigue, and chest pain were common symptoms in the days and weeks after infection.The authors found that certain areas of the brainstem, including the medulla oblongata, pons, and midbrain, showed signs of inflammation. The inflammation was greatest in patients with longer hospital stays, higher COVID severity, more prominent inflammatory responses, and worse functional outcomes, the authors said."The fact that we see abnormalities in the parts of the brain associated with breathing strongly suggests that long-lasting symptoms are an effect of inflammation in the brainstem following Covid-19 infection," said Rua. "These effects are over and above the effects of age and gender, and are more pronounced in those who had had severe Covid-19."The authors said COVID-19 infection can result in a "brainstem insult" that results in clusters of physical long-COVID symptoms. "A similar pattern is observed following post severe traumatic brain injury, with patients reporting fatigue and dizziness but also tachycardia, tachypnoea and hypertension, linked to acute or chronic brainstem dysfunction," they wrote.

Autumn COVID wave develops in Germany -An autumn coronavirus wave has been developing in Germany for several weeks, as is shown by all indicators. The German government’s infection radar, which analyses the viral load in wastewater based on data from over 100 sewage treatment plants, shows that the incidence of infection had only fallen minimally compared to the summer wave. In recent weeks, the numbers have risen again significantly. At the peak of the summer wave in July, the viral load was 118,000 gene copies per litre of wastewater. At the beginning of August, it fell to 103,000 and is currently at 163,000 gene copies. Overall, the viral load was therefore more than twice as high throughout the summer as the previous year. According to estimates by GrippeWeb, a portal of the Robert Koch Institute public health body, the current COVID-19 incidence rate in the population is around 1,400 per 100,000 inhabitants. This means that 1.4 percent of the German population is infected with the virus every week. The increase is steep. The previous week the incidence was 1,200, at the beginning of August it was 600. In Bavaria, wastewater monitoring shows an even more significant increase. In Munich, for example, the viral load in wastewater has more than doubled compared to the previous week and is thus higher than it has been since the beginning of the year. The Oktoberfest, which, with its 6.7 million visitors, served as a two-week-long superspreader event, bears central responsibility for this. In Rhineland-Palatinate, the State Investigation Office reported a 78 percent increase in the number of cases compared to the previous week. Various other indicators from the federal government’s infection radar also show a sharp rise in the number of infections. For example, the number of visits to the doctor due to acute respiratory illnesses with COVID-19 is two to three times higher than in the summer, at 89 per 100,000 inhabitants per week. The number of hospitalisations due to severe respiratory illness with COVID-19 stands at a seven-day incidence of 2.2, which is three times higher than at the beginning of July. The number of deaths, which currently stands at 80 per week, has also tripled compared to the beginning of July. Virologist and specialist in microbiology and infection epidemiology Timo Ulrichs told Focus Online: “An autumn wave could well be imminent, and the new fitness of the sub-variant KP.3.1.1 could also contribute to this.” KP.3.1.1, a successor to the JN.1 lineage, is already dominant in several countries and does, indeed, play a central role in the current autumn wave in Germany. A new study by Japanese scientists published in the medical journal The Lancet states: “KP.3.1.1 has a significantly higher reproduction number than its predecessors KP.2, KP.2.3 and KP.3.” The predecessor variants KP.2 and KP.3 had already led to an increase in infections in the summer months, although the weather conditions are less favourable for the spread of the disease in summer than in winter. In Germany, KP.3.1.1 currently accounts for 43 percent of infections and is therefore predominant. At the same time, the recombinant subline XEC has a share of 28 percent—and the trend is rising. XEC was first discovered in Germany in June and has spread from there to 27 countries. Virologists estimate that it has around twice the growth advantage of KP.3.1.1 and will be the dominant variant in winter. Above all, the emergence of new variants disproves the lie that the pandemic is over. In fact, the pandemic is not over, and it is only a matter of time before an even deadlier variant emerges. Contrary to the claims made by politicians and the media, COVID-19 is therefore in no way comparable to influenza.

Is COVID-19 infecting wild animals? Researcher test species from bats to seals to find out --Over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers have found coronavirus infections in pet cats and dogs and in multiple zoo animals, including big cats and gorillas. These infections have even happened when staff were using personal protective equipment.More disturbing, in December, the United States Department of Agriculture confirmed the first case of a wild animal infected with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. Researchers found an infected wild mink in Utah near a mink farm with its own COVID-19 outbreak.Are humans transmitting this virus to wildlife? If so, what would this mean for wild animals—and people too? We are two scientists who study viruses in wildlife and are currently running a study investigating the potential for SARS-CoV-2 transmission from humans into domestic and wild animals.When viruses move from one species into another, scientists call it spillover. Thankfully, spillover doesn't occur easily.To infect a new species, a virus must be able to bind to a protein on a cell and enter the cell while dodging an immune system the virus hasn't encountered before. Then, as a virus works to avoid antibodies and other antiviral attackers, it must replicate at a high enough volume to be transmitted on to the next animal.This usually means that the more closely related two species are, the more likely they are to share viruses. Chimpanzees, the species most closely related to humans, can catch and get sick from many human viruses. Earlier this month, veterinarians at the San Diego Zoo announced that the zoo's troop of gorillas was infected with SARS–CoV–2. This indicated it is possible for this virus to jump from humans to our close relatives.Some viruses tend to stay in a single species or in closely related species, while other viruses seem innately more capable of large species jumps. Influenza, for example, can infect a wide variety of animals, from sparrows to whales. Similarly, coronaviruses are known to regularly jump between species.The question of how many and which species can be infected by SARS-CoV-2—and which ones might be able to support continued circulation of the virus—is an important one.For human-to-wildlife spillover of SARS-CoV-2 to occur, an animal needs to be exposed to a high-enough viral dose to become infected. The highest-risk situations are during direct contact with humans, such as a veterinarian's caring for an injured animal. Contact between a sick person and a pet or farm animal also poses a risk, as the domestic animal could act as an intermediate host, eventually passing the virus to a wild animal.Another way COVID-19 could spill over from humans into animals is through indirect infection, such as through wastewater. COVID-19 and other pathogens can be detected in waste streams, many of which end up dumped, untreated, into environments where wildlife like marine mammals may be exposed. This is thought to be how elephant seals in California became infected with H1N1 influenza during the swine flu pandemic in 2009.To study whether spillover of SARS-CoV-2 is happening, our team at Tufts is partnering with veterinarians and licensed wildlife rehabilitators across the U.S. to collect samples from and test animals in their care. Through the project, we have tested nearly 300 wild animals from over 20 species. So far, none—from bats to seals to coyotes—have shown any evidence of COVID-19 by swab or antibody tests.Other researchers have launched targeted surveillance of wild animals in places where captive animals have been infected. The first confirmed infection in a wild mink was found during surveillance near an infected mink farm. It's not yet clear how this wild mink got the coronavirus, but the high density of infected minks and potentially infectious particles from them made it a high-risk location.When a virus infects a new species, it sometimes mutates, adapting to infect, replicate and transmit more efficiently in a new animal. This is called host adaptation. When a virus jumps to a new host and begins adapting, the results can be unpredictable. In late 2020, when SARS-CoV-2 jumped into farmed mink in Denmark, it acquired mutations that were uncommon in humans. Some of these mutations occurred in the part of the virus that most vaccines are designed to recognize. And it didn't just happen once—these mutations independently arose in mink farms multiple times. While it's not yet clear what impact, if any, these mutations may have on human disease or the vaccine, these are signs of host adaptation that could allow novel variants of the virus to persist and reemerge from animal hosts in the future.But perhaps the biggest risk to humans is that spillover could result in the coronavirus establishing a reservoir in new animals and regions. This could provide opportunities for reintroduction of COVID-19 into humans in the future. This month, researchers published a paper showing that this had already happened on a small scale with human–to–mink–to–human transmission on mink farms in Denmark.

CDC: 35% flu vaccine efficacy in South America may predict similar for US season --The effectiveness of the seasonal flu vaccine against hospitalization among high-risk groups during the 2024 seasonal flu season in five Southern Hemisphere countries was low (35%), down from 50% in 2023 but not outside the expected range, which may portend similar efficacy during the upcoming Northern Hemisphere flu season if similar A(H3N2) viruses predominate, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) researchers report.The interim estimates, published late last week in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR), come from Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay, where an average of only 21.3% of patients hospitalized for flu from March to July 2024 (the Southern Hemisphere flu season) had received the flu vaccine."While Southern Hemisphere data cannot predict exactly what will happen in the Northern Hemisphere, what we can say is that if we see similar influenza viruses (strains or clades) circulating this season in the Northern Hemisphere, we can expect similar vaccine effectiveness against influenza-related hospitalizations," lead author Erica Zeno, PhD, epidemic intelligence service officer with the CDC’s Influenza Division, told CIDRAP News in an email.This flu season, the United States is using trivalent (three-strain) vaccines with the same components as those in Southern Hemisphere vaccines, Zeno said. On August 29, the CDC forecasted that the upcoming flu season "will be similar to or lower than that of the 2023-2024 season rate of 8.9 weekly laboratory-confirmed hospitalizations per 100,000, with moderate confidence," it wrote. "However, past seasons have varied widely in the number of illnesses, hospitalizations, and deaths, depending on the subtypes circulating, population immunity to different subtypes, and vaccine effectiveness against circulating subtypes."The study population was made up of 11,751 SARI patients from three Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) vaccination target groups: young children (58.3%), older children and people with underlying medical conditions (14.5%), and older adults (27.2%). Case-patients had SARI and tested positive for flu, while control patients had SARI and tested negative for flu and COVID-19. Data were pooled from 30 hospitals in Argentina, 2,477 in Brazil, 13 in Chile, 5 in Paraguay, and 10 in Uruguay beginning 2 weeks after each country's flu vaccination campaign. Vaccination status was confirmed using national electronic vaccination records. All countries used World Health Organization (WHO)–recommended egg-based Southern Hemisphere formulations. Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay used trivalent (three-strain) vaccines containing antigens from A/Victoria/4897/2022 (H1N1)pdm09–like virus, A/Thailand/8/2022 (H3N2)–like virus, and B/Austria/1359417/2021 (B/Victoria lineage)–like virus, while Paraguay used quadrivalent (four-strain) vaccines that also contained the B/Yamagata lineage–like virus.The five countries reported 11,751 flu-related SARI cases and an average low seasonal flu vaccination rate. "The documented influenza vaccination coverage levels (21.3%) were below pre–COVID-19 norms," the researchers wrote. "This finding is consistent with postpandemic declines in vaccination coverage across the Americas associated with vaccine misinformation, hesitancy, and disruptions in routine immunization services, prevalent during the COVID-19 pandemic."The adjusted VE was 34.5% against hospitalization, 36.5% against the predominant A(H3N2) influenza substrain, and 37.1% against the A(H1N1)pdm09 substrain. VE was 58.7% among patients with chronic conditions, 39.0% among young children, and 31.2% among older adults.

Mpox pace remains brisk in Africa as virus resurfaces in Brazzaville --African countries reported nearly 3,200 mpox cases last week, and 53 people died from their infections, with the Republic of Congo capital, Brazzaville, reporting its first case in 6 weeks, the head of the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) said today at a weekly briefing. Though 16 countries in the region have reported cases this year, five make up more than 98% of cases: The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Burundi, Nigeria, Ivory Coast, and Uganda. Jean Kaseya, MD, MPH, director-general of the Africa CDC, said the burden of the disease in children younger than 15 years remains high in the DRC, Burundi, Nigeria, Ivory Coast, and Central African Republic. He added that more epidemiologic information is needed to show how the virus is spreading in this vulnerable population. In the DRC, the hardest-hit country, five provinces are reporting only the novel clade 1b mpox virus, and two, including Kinshasa and Tshopo, are reporting a mix of clade 1a and 1b infections. Meanwhile, Burundi is reporting clade 1b in its confirmed cases, with children making up just over half of cases. The DRC began vaccinating high-risk groups in some of its hot spots on October 5. Nicaise Ndembi, MSc, PhD, a senior advisor to the Africa CDC, said 1,654 people have been vaccinated so far in North Kivu, South Kivu, and Tshopo provinces. Health officials said the next steps are launching vaccination campaigns in the remaining affected provinces and health zones and that preparations are under way for vaccination in Kinshasa. The Africa CDC said monitoring is under way for allocation of the LC 16 vaccine, donated by Japan, for the vaccination of children younger than 18 years.

Mpox vaccine campaign launches in DRC, with first doses to healthcare workers - Over the weekend, the World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed it began a Jynneos vaccination campaign in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) in an effort to stem an ongoing mpox outbreak. The DRC has reported more than 30,000 suspected and laboratory-confirmed mpox cases this year, including 990 deaths. The outbreak has spread to 15 other African nations. A total of 265,000 doses of Jynneos, donated by the European Union, were distributed in the DRC. According to the WHO, the vaccination campaign will be rolled out in 11 of the most affected health zones in Equateur, North Kivu, Sankuru, South Kivu, Sud-Ubangi, and Tshopo provinces. "Africa CDC remains committed to working closely with the DRC to ensure vaccines reach those who need them the most, while also working to strengthen health systems to prevent future outbreaks. Our top priority is to secure safe and effective vaccines for children in the next phase of vaccination," the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) said in a press release announcing the start of the vaccine campaign. Health workers in North Kivi province are among the first to receive the vaccines. North Kivi has been a hotspot for the current outbreak: 34% of the reported confirmed cases are individuals living in camps for internally displaced people, and approximately 75% of mpox cases in the province are among children 0 to 17, according to the latest situation report on the outbreak.

Rwanda’s Marburg total rises as vaccine trial launches - The health ministry in Rwanda has reported a steady rise in Marburg virus cases over the past few days, and in quickly evolving developments, the country received a shipment of investigational Marburg vaccine and began immunizing healthcare workers.In updates over the last 3 days, Rwanda’s health ministry announced the confirmation of 20 more cases and 1 more death, raising the outbreak total to 56 cases, which includes 12 people who have died from their infections.Meanwhile, the country’s health ministry yesterday announced that it had received 700 Marburg vaccine doses the evening before, which would immediately be distributed to doctors and healthcare workers, a group hit hard by the outbreak. Earlier reports said the majority of the cases involved healthcare workers, especially those in two hospitals in Kigali, the country’s capital.Health officials are now administering the vaccines though mobile clinics. At a media briefing, Rwanda’s health minister Sabin Nsanzimana, MD, PhD, said the vaccine has been used in other countries, including Uganda and Kenya. He also added that two drugs are being used to help Marburg patients in Rwanda, remdesivir and monoclonal antibodies.The vaccine is from the Sabin Vaccine Institute, based in Washington, DC, which said in an October 5statement that it had shipped an initial 700 doses of the investigational vaccine for a trial targeting frontline health workers. It said the clinical trial agreement with the Rwanda Biomedical Centre applies to a rapid-response phase 2 open-label study targeting at-risk adults, beginning with health workers. The vaccines will be given at six clinical trial sites in Rwanda. The group added that it will provide more doses, pending a request from Rwanda and authorization from the US Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), which is part of the Department of Health and Human Services. Currently, there are no approved treatments or vaccines for Marburg virus infection, which has a case-fatality rate as high as 88%.

IV fluid shortages worsened by Hurricane Helene likely to linger despite larger allocations - Shortages of intravenous (IV) fluids, worsened by Hurricane Helene damage at Baxter's Marion, North Carolina, manufacturing plant, are expected to continue for months, although allocations to customers and distributors have increased, the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) said in a letter to hospitals yesterday. Since the hurricane triggered flooding at the plant in late September, many hospitals across the country have been delaying non-urgent surgeries and substituting oral electrolyte fluids (eg, Gatorade, Pedialyte). Baxter supplies about 60% of IV fluids to hospitals in the United States. In the letter, HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra, JD, noted current shortages of normal saline IV fluids, normal saline irrigation fluid, sterile water irrigation, and dextrose 5% IV fluids. "In the coming weeks, supply may continue to be constrained, and we understand that certain products are on allocation; however, Baxter reported that they have resumed shipments to hospitals and dialysis providers and patients after the temporary hold last week, based on allocations as previously communicated," he said. In the short-term, the inventory will support current allocations while several global Baxter plants scale up production, other domestic manufacturers step in to fulfill orders within their allocations, and the FDA works with Baxter to identify any products already in the company's system, expedite consideration of any requests for expiration-date extensions, and consider temporary product imports. HHS's Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR) is working with Baxter and other partners to support infrastructure repairs, the letter said. Based on this, the company's efforts to increase manufacturing capacity at other plants, and anticipation of inbound products and air shipments, the company said yesterday that it has increased allocations of its highest-demand IV fluids from 40% to 60% for direct customers and from 10% to 60% for distributors. "We are also increasing high concentration dextrose and sterile water for injection allocations and expect to be in a position to make additional increases for certain product codes by early November," Baxter said. "Due to the vulnerable patient population they serve, allocations for IV solutions and nutrition products for designated children’s hospitals were increased to 100%." The goal, the company said, is to ramp up production and return to 90% to 100% allocation of certain IV solutions by the end of the year.

Understaffed hospitals have higher rates of infection | A lack of infection prevention and control staffing leads to more healthcare-associated infections, according to a new study published today in the American Journal of Infection Control.The study is based on a new online calculator aimed at providing facility-specific recommendations for infection prevention staffing instead of a standard infection preventionists (IPs) per inpatient bed.Researchers used the calculator to analyze the IP staffing needs at 390 acute care hospitals and the number of optimal IPs was based on factors such as the presence of an emergency department, burn unit, stem cell transplant unit, or inpatient rehabilitation unit.The majority of the 390 hospitals surveyed (79.2%) were understaffed according to the calculator in infection control personnel, which assumed a baseline staffing level of 1 full-time IP per 85 beds.Staffing levels ranged from 1 IP per 40 beds at small hospitals (fewer than 25 beds) to a peak of 1 IP per 161 beds in hospitals with 301 to400 beds. Overall, the median IP full-time equivalent to bed ratio was 121.0 beds for the 390 hospitals.The authors found a significant association between IP staffing levels and healthcare-associated infections, including central line-associated bloodstream infections (CLABSI), catheter-associated urinary tract infections (CAUTI), Clostridioides difficile infections, and colon surgical site infections.Almost 90% of hospitals that were staffed above expected were in the low CAUTI range, compared to only 57.6% of hospitals that were staffed at a below than expected level. In 25% of hospitals that were staffed below expected levels, there were higher colon surgical site infection rates compared to only 14.6% of the hospitals staffed above expected levels.

Babesiosis rates rising steadily in the US -- Rates of babesiosis, a tickborne disease, increased by 9% per year in the United States from 2015 to 2022, according to a study today in Open Forum Infectious Diseases.The study also found 4 in 10 people with babesiosis were coinfected with another tickborne illness, including Lyme disease.Babesiosis is caused by the Babesia parasite which is transmitted by black-legged ticks found mostly in the Northeast and Midwest. The infection attacks the red blood cells, and though most people recover after flu-like symptoms, infection can be deadly in the elderly and immune compromised.To assess the prevalence of the parasite, researchers from the Penn State College of Medicine identified 3,521 individuals who were infected with babesiosis between October 2015 and December 2022 through TriNetX, a large, national database of clinical patient data from over 250 million patients.They found increasing diagnoses made each summer, for an average annual increase of 9%. The prevalence of 1 or more coinfections was 42% (95% confidence interval, 40% to 43%). Among all patients diagnosed with babesiosis, 41% were co-infected with the bacterium responsible for Lyme disease, and 3.7% and 0.3%, respectively, were co-infected with bacteria that cause ehrlichiosis and anaplasmosis.The authors said the increase in cases was likely due to climate changes, which have led to increasing habitats for black leg ticks.

Case report: Live Oropouche virus found in semen 16 days after symptom onset --A study published yesterday in Emerging Infectious Diseasesdescribes prolonged shedding of Oropouche virus RNA in a symptomatic traveler's whole blood, serum, and urine, while viral replication was detected in semen 16 days after infection, which the authors say suggests a risk of sexual transmission. Oropouche virus, an emerging zoonotic arbovirus, is spread mainly by biting midges and Culex quinquefasciatus mosquitoes. Infection typically causes influenza-like symptoms but can lead to short-term meningitis or meningo-encephalitis. Endemic to the Amazon region of South America, the virus has also caused travel-related outbreaks in the Caribbean, Europe, and the United States, where 90 cases have been reported by five states, mostly in Florida.Oropouche's link to rare but notable adverse pregnancy outcomes in Brazil in 1982 and 2024 bears a worrisome resemblance to that of another tropical mosquito-borne virus, Zika, which causes abnormally small head size in infants.On August 2, 2024, the 42-year-old Italian case-patient, who had traveled to Cuba in July, sought medical care for an acute illness. The day before he returned from Cuba, he began experiencing a fever of 39.0°C (102.2°F), headache, and general malaise. The fever lessened after 2 days but returned 2 days later. No meningeal irritation was observed, and blood culture was negative for Zika and two other mosquito-borne viruses, dengue and chikungunya.Reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing of serum, whole-blood, and urine samples collected 4 days after symptom onset revealed a diagnosis of Oropouche fever. By day 10, the patient had recovered completely.RT-PCR remained positive in whole-blood and urine samples collected 10, 16, and 32 days after symptom onset, while serum was positive for Oroupouche RNA at 10 but not 16 days. RNA was detected in semen and whole blood, but not urine, on days 16 and 58. Infectious Oropouche virus was cultured on day 16, with viral replication confirmed by the observation of clear cytopathic effects after 5 days and elevated viral RNA concentrations in spent cell growth medium. Higher levels of RNA were still being shed in higher levels in semen than in serum and whole blood on day 32, but the ability to replicate could no longer be established.

Record dengue surge continues in the Americas, as San Diego County reports first local case -In a new epidemiological alert, the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) said more than 11.7 million dengue cases have been reported from the Americas region this year, and it urged countries in South America to strengthen their response plans as its new dengue season begins. In a related development, the San Diego County Department of Public Health this week said it is investigating its first locally acquired dengue case, which would bring California’s total this year to six.The number of dengue cases this year is more than double the number reported for all of 2023, which itself was a record year, PAHO said in a statement.In its full report, it said dengue cases have continued to increase in the Central American isthmus and Mexico, as the South American region faces the start another season.Southern Cone countries have experienced a significant surge, with cases up 250% compared to the same period in 2023. “While the case fatality rate has remained relatively low in the subregion, the possibility of increased cases could lead to more severe outcomes and place a burden on health systems,” PAHO said, urging countries to prepare health facilities to manage larger case numbers during peak transmission season.All four serotypes are circulating in Americas countries, increasing the risk of serious illness, it said.Of 6,650 fatal dengue cases reported from the Americas region so far, 97% were from six countries: Brazil, Argentina, Peru, Colombia, Paraguay, Ecuador. In a statement, San Diego County health officials said the local case involves a patient from Escondido, which is about 30 miles north of the city of San Diego.The county began spraying for mosquitos at about 170 homes in Escondido. Aedes mosquitoes that spread dengue were first detected in San Diego County in 2014. Aside from the first locally acquired case, the county had detected 49 travel-related cases this year.

Anthony Fauci reveals struggle with West Nile virus and recovery --Former White House chief medical adviser Anthony Fauci said he feared he would never “return to normal” after he contracted West Nile virus. Fauci, who served as the face of the Trump and Biden administration responses to the COVID-19 pandemic and served as the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases for nearly four decades, wrote an op-ed published Monday in The New York Times about his hospitalization and recovery.“After I spent more than 50 years chasing and fighting viruses, one fought back and nearly took me down,” Fauci wrote.Fauci, 83, said he likely contracted the virus outside his home in Washington. In mid-August, he began to feel weak and exhausted but thought it could have been lingering symptoms from contracting COVID-19 in July.He was admitted to the hospital on Aug. 16, “delirious and incoherent with a temperature of 103 degrees.” Fauci spent five and a half days in the hospital, where he was treated for sepsis before blood testing revealed he had West Nile virus.“There is no treatment for West Nile virus disease, and I was left to deal with its toll on my body. It was terrifying,” he wrote, detailing how weak he became both physically and mentally.“A very scary part of the ordeal was the effect on my cognition. I was disoriented, unable to remember certain words, asking questions of my family that I should have known answers to,” Fauci said. “I was afraid that I would never recover and return to normal.”The West Nile virus is spread through mosquito bites. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said it can lead to body aches, fever, rash and diarrhea. No vaccines or treatments are currently available, and about 1,000 Americans are hospitalized with a severe form of the illness. Fauci’s spokesperson confirmed in August that he had been hospitalized and was home resting. Although Fauci details in his op-ed that he was concerned about making a recovery, his spokesperson said he was expected to make a full recovery.As of early October, Fauci said he was walking multiple miles a day and his cognitive issues had cleared. He said he was on his way to total recovery, but “it has been a harrowing experience.”“I tell my story because West Nile virus is a disease that, for many people, can have devastating and permanent consequences,” he said.Fauci warned that the virus has risks of permanent neurological damage and even death. While it’s been identified in 46 states across the country this year, not much is being done about West Nile “from scientific and public awareness perspectives,” he said. “Considerably more resources must be put into addressing this threat now, not when the threat becomes an even greater crisis,” Fauci said. “As a society, we cannot accept this as the status quo.”

California probes likely H5 infection in another dairy worker The California Department of Public Health (CDPH) on October 5 reported a potential third human H5 avian influenza infection in a worker who had contact with sick cows at a Central Valley farm.Confirmation testing is underway at the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). If confirmed, the illness would mark the third recent H5 infection in a California dairy worker.The CDPH said there is no known link to the two recent cases, and that all three patients had contact with infected animals at three different farms. Like the first two cases, the most recent probable patient had mild symptoms that included conjunctivitis. None of the patients were hospitalized.If confirmed by the CDC, the latest illness would push the nation’s human H5 case count since the first of the year to 17. All but one—which involves a patient from Missouri—have been connected to contact with sick cows or poultry.In related developments, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has confirmed 26 more H5N1 outbreaks in cows at California dairy farms, pushing the national total to 282 across 14 states.The latest confirmations make California the hardest hit state, with 82 outbreaks reported so far. California, which has ramped up surveillance around affected farms with weekly bulk-milk testing, now has the most outbreaks of any state, despite the fact that it reported its first outbreaks in cows at the end of August. California is the nation’s largest dairy producer.

California reports 2 more likely avian flu infections in dairy workers - The California Department of Public Health (CDPH) todayannounced two more presumptive H5 avian flu positives in dairy workers, which if confirmed by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), would raise the state’s total to five over the past few weeks. The two new possible cases were reported from the Central Valley, and so far there are no known links among the human cases, suggesting that only animal-to-human transmission is occurring in the state, the CDPH said in a statement. Also, the group added that the CDC has confirmed its recently reported third case, which was found in state testing, with the sample forwarded to the CDC.“All cases so far have experienced mild symptoms, including eye redness or discharge (conjunctivitis). None of the individuals has been hospitalized,” the CDPH said.At a briefing last week, federal health officials commended California for actively monitoring workers and quickly identifying and following up on people with symptoms. If the CDC confirms that state’s two latest cases, the national total would rise to 19 since the first of the year. Except for a patient in Missouri, all infections were linked to contact with sick cows or poultry. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) hasconfirmed 13 more H5N1 avian flu outbreaks in California’s dairy cows, bringing the state’s total since late August to 96.The first outbreak in the state was reported in September, and the rapid pace of spread in California—the nation’s largest dairy producer—has already made it the hardest-hit state. The new outbreaks push the national total to 296 across 14 states. As the investigation continues into how the virus is spreading among California’s farms, recent sampling from harvested wild birds in one of the affected Central Valley counties has turned up positive H5N1 findings. According to the APHIS wild bird confirmation list, the five birds that tested positive in Tulare County were sampled between September 17 and 21. Species included starlings, blackbirds, and a dove.

Avian enthusiasts try to counter the deadly risk of Chicago high-rises for migrating birdsWith a neon-green net in hand, Annette Prince briskly walks a downtown Chicago plaza at dawn, looking left and right as she goes. It's not long before she spots a tiny yellow bird sitting on the concrete. It doesn't fly away, and she quickly nets the bird, gently places it inside a paper bag and labels the bag with the date, time and place. "This is a Nashville warbler," said Prince, director of the Chicago Bird Collision Monitors, noting that the bird must have flown into a glass window pane of an adjacent building. "He must only weigh about two pennies. He's squinting his eyes because his head hurts." For rescue groups like the Chicago Bird Collision Monitors, this scene plays out hundreds of times each spring and fall after migrating birds fly into homes, small buildings and sometimes Chicago's skyscrapers and other hulking buildings. A stark sign of the risks came last fall, when 1,000 migrating birds died on a single night after flying into the glass exterior of the city's lakefront convention center, McCormick Place. This fall, the facility unveiled new bird-safe window film on one of its glass buildings along the Lake Michigan shore. An injured Nashville warbler, a kind of migrating songbird, sits on the ground after likely striking a glass window pane Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024, in downtown Chicago. Credit: AP Photo/Erin Hooley The $1.2 million project installed tiny dots on the exterior of the Lakeside Center building, adorning enough glass to cover two football fields. Doug Stotz, senior conservation ecologist at the nearby Field Museum, hopes the project will be a success. He estimated that just 20 birds have died after flying into the convention's center's glass exterior so far this fall, a hopeful sign.

Study shows neonicotinoids are harmful to birds on all fronts -- Neonicotinoids are widely used insecticides in agriculture and horticulture. However, neonicotinoids usage is highly contentious because of their unintended harmful effects on various types of organisms. Researcher Elke Molenaar of the Wageningen University & Research (WUR) says, "There have been concerns about the negative impact of neonicotinoids on insect populations for some time, but the general consensus for many years was that birds suffered relatively little from their toxicity. "Direct effects through ingestion of food were thought to be minimal. A new study conducted by WUR in collaboration with Vogelbescherming Nederland (VBN, Birdlife Netherlands) shows that direct harmful effects do occur when birds eat food containing neonicotinoids. These effects should absolutely not be underestimated." The study is published in the journal Ecology Letters. An analysis of global data from nearly 50 studies on 12 different bird species shows that neonicotinoids adversely affect all investigated aspects of bird life. In these studies, birds were exposed to neonicotinoids through their food or via direct administration, and more than a thousand effects were investigated, the vast majority being negative. One example of such effects is reduced orientation, causing migrating birds to lose their course. Other effects include young chicks with birth defects, birds with abnormal blood levels and birds that lived shorter lives after exposure to these substances. The study examines the effects of five different types of neonicotinoids. Two of them, imidacloprid and thiamethoxam, have already been extensively studied scientifically, while the other three—acetamiprid, clothianidin and thiacloprid—have barely been studied. Yet, according to Molenaar, the results show that the effects of the substances hardly differ between them: "For all of them, we see negative effects." Although neonicotinoids are mostly banned within the EU for use in open agriculture and horticulture, they are still used outside of the region. There are also exceptions within the EU, whereby farmers can still get permission to use neonicotinoids via "emergency licenses." Meanwhile, new insecticides that are chemically very similar to neonicotinoids are rapidly being developed and marketed. VBN calls it worrying that these harmful agents still pass the authorization procedures and are wrongly labeled as safe for humans, animals and the environment. For example, pesticides are often used on a large scale for years, while subsequent research shows that it is not at all safe for birds and perhaps other organisms that ingest it.

Michigan Department of Natural Resources confirms state's worst deer disease outbreak since 2012 -- The Michigan Department of Natural Resources has confirmed the state's worst deer disease outbreak since 2012 with cases found in 11 southwest counties, officials said. The DNR Wildlife Health Section confirmed epizootic hemorrhagic disease, or EHD, in wild deer populations in Barry, Berrien, Branch, Calhoun, Cass, Hillsdale, Kalamazoo, Kent, Ottawa, St. Joseph and Van Buren counties, according to a department press release. EHD is transmitted to white-tailed deer through infected midge bites. Deer cannot transmit the disease, which is sometimes fatal for them, directly to one another. There is no evidence that humans can contract the virus from midges, infected deer or venison, and the disease poses no threat to human health, state officials said. "The outbreak this year is the worst we've seen since 2012, but we expect a similar recovery to local deer numbers like we saw after the 2012 event," Chad Fedewa, acting deer specialist for the DNR Wildlife Division, said in the release. "So, while hunting and deer sightings will be affected in the short term, there are no long-term concerns with the overall deer population." EHD outbreaks typically occur in the late summer to early fall, but the first frost usually kills the midge population, according to the release. Deer infected with EHD show symptoms like loss of appetite, reduced fear of humans, weakness, excessive salivation, rapid pulse, increased respiration and fever. Infected deer may also seek water to cool their body temperatures. DNR officials do not expect EHD to have large-scale impacts on the state's deer population, but the disease could affect local areas if the mortality is severe, Fedewa said in the release. "After an outbreak, local deer populations usually rebound after a few years," he said. "That has been the case over the last decade or so each time we have seen this virus show up." Local herds showed signs of rebounding after a few years and fully recovered after four to five years after the 2012 outbreak, according to the release. Officials ask that anyone suspecting a deer has died or contracted EHD submit their observation to the DNR online. Nearly 2,000 deer had been reported through DNR's online form as of Wednesday. DNR encourages reporting suspected cases even though it's not necessary to continue testing once the virus has been confirmed in a county. EHD's effects are not usually countywide, state officials reported. The disease usually affects deer near water sources with exposed mud, where midge flies lay their eggs. Property owners must properly dispose of deer carcasses if they wish to remove them by leaving them to decompose, burying them at a sufficient depth or disposing them in approved landfills, according to the release.

Sardinia's sheep farmers battle bluetongue as climate warms Bluetongue can cause nosebleeds, swollen heads, fever and turn an infected animal's tongue blue. The sheep huddle together, bleeding from the nose, aborting lambs or suffocating on saliva as they succumb to bluetongue, a virus sweeping through flocks on the Italian island of Sardinia. Some 20,000 sheep have died so far this year on the island, which is home to nearly half Italy's flock and plays an important role in the production of famed Italian cheeses such as Pecorino. It is another blow for farmers in a region already battered by a drought aggravated by man-made climate change—which experts say is also fueling the spread of bluetongue and longer outbreaks. "The virus hit about two and a half months earlier than usual," 39-year-old farmer Michela Dessi told AFP as she scanned her flock for panting or limping sheep in her fields in Arbus in western Sardinia. Bluetongue does not present any risks to humans but in animals it causes swollen heads, high fevers, mouth ulcers, difficulty swallowing and breathing, and can turn an infected animal's tongue blue. It is transmitted between animals by biting midges. While cattle, goats and deer can get it too, sheep are the most severely affected, according to the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH). Infected and pregnant ewes abort or their lambs are born deformed, and survivors can lose their wool. Sunken sides are a sign the ewes are carrying dead fetuses. The sick animals struggle to expel them. Sardinia is home to nearly half the sheep in Italy. The infection rate this year on Dessi's farm is about 60 percent, and some 30 percent of her sheep have aborted. Around 50 of her 650 sheep have died—and in a way she said was "horrible to watch". With high fevers, "they refuse food and water and some suffocate or drown in their own saliva", she said, adding that it is illegal to euthanise them. Nearly 3,000 outbreaks have been recorded so far this year in Sardinia, compared to 371 last year—and the end is not yet in sight. Bluetongue used to peak in Sardinia in August but has done so as late as November in recent years, according to the region's veterinary research institute (IZS). "Climatic conditions heavily influence midge populations," the animal health division at the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization in Rome told AFP. Bluetongue once peaked in August but in recent years has done so in November. They affect "their biting behavior and the speed of development of the virus, with climate change likely driving the virus's expansion... and contributing to larger outbreaks". Cases have been reported this year in other European countries, from neighboring France to Portugal, Spain, Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands. Bluetongue has been present in Sardinia since 2000 but Italy's farming lobby Coldiretti says authorities are too slow each year to vaccinate the island's flocks. The costs of failing to rein it in are high. A University of Bologna study last year found the 2017 outbreak, which killed 34,500 sheep, cost an estimated 30 million euros ($33 million). That included damages suffered by farms—deaths, reduced milk yields, infertility, abortions—costs to animal health authorities and subventions paid by the region to affected farms. The virus can cause ewes to abort or reduce their milk yields. "The first outbreaks occur in the same at-risk areas each year," meaning highly targeted measures could theoretically prevent outbreaks, said Stefano Cappai from research institute IZS. There are three variants on the island this year, two of which can be vaccinated against, with mortality rates twice as high among unvaccinated sheep. Flocks should be vaccinated in March or April, Cappai said, but vaccines were only issued by the region in mid-June this year. By that point, the virus had begun to spread unchecked. Even if the vaccines had been made available earlier, some farmers fear to use them. Others only vaccinate part of their flock, which means they fail to reach herd immunity, Cappai said. And some farmers—like Dessi—vaccinated her flock, only for the sheep to catch the variant for which there is no vaccine yet.

New bluetongue virus serotype, BTV-12, identified in the NetherlandsA new variant of the bluetongue virus has been identified in a sheep in Kockengen. It was identified as bluetongue serotype BTV-12, according to research by Wageningen Bioveterinary Research (WBVR, part of Wageningen University & Research). The European Bluetongue Reference Laboratory in Madrid confirmed that the animal in question was infected with BTV-12. Following the detection of BTV-12 in the sheep in Kockengen, additional research was commissioned by LVVN in eight ruminants in the immediate vicinity (radius of 5 km). One of these animals, a cow, also proved positive for BTV-12 in the analysis of Wageningen Bioveterinary Research. This sample has also been offered to the European Reference Laboratory for confirmation. These results are expected early next week. The cow in question calved in September. The calf was sampled by the NVWA and is currently being examined for the presence of bluetongue. The Dutch ministry of Agriculture, Fishery, Food Security and Nature (LVVN) and the Dutch Food and Consumer Product Safety Authority (NVWA) have been informed about the new bluetongue variant. Due to the determination of BTV-12, LVVN minister Femke Wiersma has ordered that all bluetongue-positive samples submitted for testing since September 1, to be analyzed again and checked for the presence of BTV-12. The results of this retrospective analysis are expected during the coming week. Genetically, the two bluetongue variants, BTV-3 and BTV-12, are unrelated. Melle Holwerda, virologist and head of the National Reference Laboratory, therefore cannot yet say anything about the origin of the new variant. "Nor do we know where BTV-12 occurs other than the two positive cases we have identified thus far." According to Holwerda, the finding of the new variant does highlight the importance of continuing to report suspicions to the NVWA.

Two elephants die in flash flooding in northern Thailand - Two elephants drowned during flash flooding in popular Thai tourist hotspot Chiang Mai, their sanctuary said Sunday, as local authorities evacuated visitors from their hotels and shops closed in the city center. More than 100 elephants at the Elephant Nature Park in Chiang Mai province were moved to higher ground to escape rapidly rising flood waters, an employee who gave her name as Dada, told AFP. But two elephants—named in local media as 16-year-old Fahsai and 40-year-old Ploython, who was blind—were found dead on Saturday. "My worst nightmare came true when I saw my elephants floating in the water," Saengduean Chailert, the director of the Elephant Nature Park in northern Thailand, told local media. "I will not let this happen again, I will not make them run from such a flood again," she said, vowing to move them to higher ground ahead of next year's monsoon. In Chiang Mai city center, people waded through muddy water close to knee height in the night bazaar, and water flowed into the central train station, which has now been closed. Tourists were forced to evacuate hotels and a local TV station showed a monk carrying a coffin through floodwaters to a cremation site. Major inundations have struck parts of northern Thailand as recent heavy downpours caused the Ping River to reach "critical" levels, according to the district office. The water level peaked on Saturday but had receded slightly by Sunday. Thailand's northern provinces have been hit by large floods since Typhoon Yagi struck the region in early September, with one district reporting its worst inundations in 80 years. Twenty provinces are currently flooded, the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation said Sunday.

Whale sharks on collision course as warming seas may force them into shipping lanes—new study -Global warming has the potential to reshuffle the spaces used by life on Earth, across all ecosystems. And our new research shows whale sharks—the world's largest fish—could be at risk, as warming oceans may force them into busy human shipping lanes.More than 12,000 marine species are expected to redistribute in future as seas warm up. Those animals that are unable to move to remain within suitable environments risk being wiped out entirely.But things are different for larger and highly mobile animals that can move freely to find conditions that suit their needs. For them, changing ocean conditions may not be such a huge threat in isolation, as they can migrate to cooler seas. Rather, shifting conditions may force species into new and more dangerous areas where they come into contact with ship propellers and other direct human threats.We fear this will happen with whale sharks. These huge sharks can reach up to 18 meters—about four cars end to end—but despite their size and robust appearance, their numbers have already declined by over 50% in the last 75 years.In previous research we discovered this decline may be partly due to collisions with large ships. Whale sharks are particularly vulnerable as they cruise around feeding on plankton and other tiny organisms, rarely needing to swim faster than human walking pace. While spending long periods moving slowly near the surface, they're often struck by ships and killed.Our new research builds on this previous work. We find that climate change will put these docile giants in even greater danger as their preferred habitats move in into new areas with heavy ship traffic.

Documenting the impact of a fungal outbreak on a forest over half a century - An entomologist and his ecologist daughter have outlined the dramatic changes that have occurred over the past half-century in the forests of White Oak Canyon in the Shenandoah National Park due to a canker fungus. In their paper published on the open-access site PLOS ONE, Richard Karban with the University of California-Davis, and Claire Karban with the University of Colorado, Boulder, describe how the forest looks today compared to the late 1970s as a means of highlighting the impact that fungal infections can have on a forest environment. As the Karbans note, in the 1920s, researchers conducted a survey of the forest at White Oak Canyon—they noted that chestnuts and oaks were the dominant canopy trees there. Later, in 1950, botanist and ecologist Lucy Braun described the tree composition of the forest in her book "Deciduous Forests of Eastern North America"; she, too, noted the dominance of oak and chestnut trees. In 1977, Richard Karban surveyed the forest and found it very much like Braun had described it. But when he returned to the forest in 2021, this time with his daughter, he was surprised to find that fundamental changes had occurred. The pair soon learned from prior research that the fungus Cryphonectria parasitica—a canker fungus—was primarily responsible for the changes. It had killed almost all the chestnut trees. The researchers noted that the forest appeared to be responding slowly—instead of oaks taking over to become the only dominant large tree in the forest, smaller trees, such as birch, had begun to fill in the gaps. The researchers noted that not all traces of the chestnut tree had vanished—there still remained trees that had reverted to shrub form. The researchers plan to continue study of the forest, hoping to better understand why it has been so slow to respond to the relatively sudden disappearance of a dominant tree species. They also plan to document other changes, such as the increase in the deer population, as an increase in brush has led to a larger food supply. They also wonder if the absence of large fires in the forest is due to the change in canopy trees.

Diverse forests better at capturing planet-warming carbon dioxide, study finds --Forests with a greater diversity of trees are more productive—potentially leading to greater efficiency in capturing planet-warming carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, a new study reveals.Researchers found that trees that grow quickly, and capture carbon faster, tend to be smaller and have shorter lifespans, leading to lower carbon storage and faster release back into the atmosphere.Slower growing species live longer and grow larger, tending to capture more atmospheric carbon—particularly in the setting of more diverse forests.Analyzing 3.2 million measurements from 1,127 species of trees across the Americas—from southern Brazil to northern Canada—an international team of experts mapped life expectancies for trees ranging from 1.3 to 3,195 years.In an article published Oct. 3 in Science, an international group including researchers from South America, Central America, Europe and North America—led by ETH Zurich, Switzerland—further identify four main types of tree life-cycles: Fast-growing species with shorter lifespans and low maximum sizes, plus three clusters of slow-growing species.At one end of the three conservative growth clusters are tree species with high life-expectancies and small maximum sizes, while at the other end are species with low life expectancies and large maximum sizes. Co-author Dr. Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert, Brazilian researcher based at the University of Birmingham, commented, "Tree growth and lifespan trade-offs are crucial for the planet's carbon balance. The positive relationship between trait diversity and productivity suggests that maintaining diverse forests is crucial for ecosystem health and climate change mitigation.

One-third of European plant species could be in trouble due to declining seed disperser populations -- A team of ecologists at the University of Coimbra, Aarhus University and the University of Bristol has found that approximately one-third of plant species in Europe are under threat of population reduction as the number of seed dispersals declines. In their study, published in the journal Science, the group created a European-wide seed dispersal network and then compared it with disperser population numbers to learn more about the problems plants in Europe are facing. Many plants rely on animals to carry their seeds to distant places to reduce competition and also to increase their range. In this new effort, the research team wondered what sort of impact plants in Europe might experience due to well-known reductions in population numbers of common dispersers such as birds, mammals, reptiles and insects. They carried out an extensive study of the literature looking for instances of interactions between plants and European animal species that disperse their seeds. In so doing, they came up with a list of 592 species of plants native to Europe that are known to have evolved in tandem with dispersers. They also found 398 animals that are known to disperse seeds. They noted that many such creatures were dispersers for more than one type of plant. To make sense of their data, the team created a list of more than 5,000 pairings of plants and their dispersers. The research team next turned their attention to the dispersers and found that approximately one-third of them were ranked as threatened or as dwindling. That led them to conclude that approximately one-third of plant species in Europe may be dwindling or disappearing as well. The researchers note that the next step for their team, or another one, is to look at changes in ecosystems across Europe that are already taking place as the numbers of dispersers has dwindled.

Wildlife loss is taking ecosystems nearer to collapse, new report suggests - Even for a conservation biologist numbed to bad news about nature, the biennial Living Planet report from the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) is a stark reminder of our failure to arrest the loss of biodiversity—the variety of living things and the ecosystems they live in. The 2024 report uses an index that has tracked the fate of 35,000 populations of 5,495 species of wild vertebrates—that's animals with a spinal column, so mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians and fish—from 1970 to the present day. Over the past 50 years (1970–2020), the average size of these monitored wildlife populations has shrunk by 73%. Freshwater populations (think fish, frogs and salamanders) are doing much worse, declining by 85%. Marine populations are faring slightly better, with declines of 56%. However, given emerging threats to the ocean ranging from microplastic accumulation to deep-sea mining, it is best not to regard these figures as absolute guides to conservation priorities.There is also huge regional variation in these results. Latin America and the Caribbean have reported 95% declines in wild vertebrate populations since 1970, compared with 35% in Europe and Central Asia. Has the world lost nearly three-quarters of all its wildlife? Well, no. The trends actually reflect relative changes in population sizes. These may encompass trends for the same species faring differently in different regions. The challenge of compressing so much variation into a single index can create confusion. Many assume the figure relates to an absolute measure of loss of individuals or extinctions.The Living Planet Index used in this report has attracted periodic criticism from ecologists. It was recently argued that removing sparse data from poorly monitored populations (more often in the tropics) is necessary to reduce bias. However, these biases are inherent in our understanding of the conservation status of wildlife.There are more studies from countries in the temperate zone (Europe and North America, for example) and fewer from tropical ones; there are more studies on large or attractive birds and mammals, but fewer on everything else. Removing what sparse data we have from the tropics just compounds these biases.The smaller declines in Europe and elsewhere in Earth's temperate zone can be misleading. Huge changes in the populations of vertebrate life took place here millennia ago when agricultural expansion erased most of the forests, natural grasslands and wetlands. The cumulative change across the ages is certainly far higher than the rather arbitrary 1970 baseline reveals. Ecologists call this "shifting baseline syndrome".Crucially, scientists lack long-term monitoring data for most tropical species that are threatened by massive habitat losses happening right now. Conservation biology is a crisis discipline—it can't wait until all available data is in before sounding the alarm.There is broad agreement between many data sources that biodiversity is being eroded at a planetary scale. For example, research I led has highlighted that about half of all bird species probably have declining populations, versus 6% with increasing trends. Beyond species, the WWF report has a particular focus on planetary tipping points. These are thresholds in the Earth system which, if breached, lead to irreversible consequences for people and nature.For example, there may exist a tipping point beyond which the Amazon rainforest rapidly dies off. Studies suggest that once around 20–25% of the total forest has been lost, the entire ecosystem could degenerate into some form of more open wooded ecosystem that would harbor much less carbon and far fewer species. Forest loss is currently around 17%. This would not only unleash a cascade of extinctions for Amazonian biodiversity. It would also have local, regional and global effects on the climate that could imperil crops across the western hemisphere and beyond. Amazonian wildlife also has an incredibly important role in keeping the rainforest resilient, as do species in other ecosystems at risk of crossing tipping points. These interconnected outcomes speak to the overarching challenge that humanity faces. Is exporting soybeans grown on land that was once rainforest to feed far-off fish farms the best use of resources? The report mentions food 181 times, as its production is the leading cause of habitat loss on land. Even if data on population trends for tropical species is sparse, satellite and ground-based assessments are unanimous in showing a reduction in the extent of tropical habitats such as rainforests and savannas. Their replacement with farms and other land uses will not support the original biodiversity. So the implications of what we put on our plates reverberate across the biosphere. Changing our patterns of consumption is critical to both stopping habitat loss and sparing land for wildlife and the ecosystem services that global agriculture is dependent on.

Death toll from Hurricane Helene rises to 227 (AP) — The death toll from Hurricane Helene inched up to 227 on Saturday as the grim task of recovering bodies continued more than a week after the monster storm ravaged the Southeast and killed people in six states.Helene came ashore Sept. 26 as a Category 4 hurricane and carved a wide swath of destruction as it moved northward from Florida, washing away homes, destroying roads and knocking out electricity and cellphone service for millions.The number of deaths stood at 225 on Friday; two more were recorded in South Carolina the following day. It was still unclear how many people were unaccounted for or missing, and the toll could rise even higher.Helene is the deadliest hurricane to hit the mainland U.S. since Katrina in 2005. About half the victims were in North Carolina, while dozens more were killed in Georgia and South Carolina.The city of Asheville, in the western mountains of North Carolina, was particularly battered. A week later workers used brooms and heavy machinery to clean mud and dirt outside of New Belgium Brewing Company, which lies next to the French Broad River and is among thousands of city businesses and households affected. So far North Carolinians have received more than $27 million in individual assistance approved by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, said MaryAnn Tierney, a regional administrator for the agency. More than 83,000 people have registered for individual assistance, according to the office of Gov. Roy Cooper. In Buncombe County, where Asheville is located, FEMA-approved assistance has surpassed $12 million for survivors, Tierney said Saturday during a news briefing. “This is critical assistance that will help people with their immediate needs, as well as displacement assistance that helps them if they can’t stay in their home,” she said. She encouraged residents impacted by the storm to register for disaster assistance. “It is the first step in the recovery process,” she said. “We can provide immediate relief in terms of serious needs assistance to replace food, water, medicines, other life safety, critical items, as well as displacement assistance if you cannot stay in your home.”

Helene inflicts over $6 billion in agricultural and forestry losses in Georgia, impacting key U.S. crop production - Georgia farmers have suffered over $6 billion worth of losses due to Hurricane “Helene,” according to preliminary estimates released on Thursday, October 10, 2024. The full extent of the damage is still being assessed, and the numbers could increase further. Farmers in Georgia have suffered approximately $6.46 billion in losses due to Hurricane “Helene,” according to preliminary estimates by the University of Georgia College of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences (CAES). Georgia’s agriculture contributes over $83 billion annually to the state’s economy, making it the state’s leading industry. The estimates provided by CAES include direct crop losses, losses to businesses supporting agriculture and forestry, impacts on workers in related industries, and projected recovery and restoration costs that agricultural businesses will face. This estimate is based on projections by University of Georgia commodity analysts, Georgia Forestry Commission foresters, and a model of the Georgia state economy and should be interpreted as preliminary, as it will take months to understand the full scope of Helene’s damage due to the widespread nature of the damage. “Helene is the third named storm to hit the State of Georgia in the past 13 months, and it could not have come at a worse time for Georgia farmers and producers, who were already facing economic hardship caused by inflation, high input costs, and depressed commodity prices,” CAES said in a press release. Prior to Helene, US Net Farm Income was projected to drop by $6.5 billion in 2024, following a decline of $35.6 billion in 2023. Blueberry crops have been the hardest hit, while cotton, peanuts, and the pecan industry have sustained comparatively lesser but still significant damage. Clay McKinnon, a farmer in Douglas City, suffered extensive damage to his blueberry, peanut, and cotton crops due to the storm. He is estimated to have lost approximately $3.5 – $4 million in farm infrastructure. “We’ve lost around $3.5 to $4 million in infrastructure and crops. On a farm, you handle millions of dollars a year, but a very small fraction of that is yours to keep. We’re already about $1.5 million out of pocket just for rebuilding,” McKinnon said. Georgia Agriculture Commissioner Tyler Harper said the future is uncertain for thousands of Georgia farmers and farm families who were devastated by Helene. Governor Brian Kemp called a conference on Thursday, October 10, to allocate federal disaster relief funds to affected farmers. In addition, 40 agricultural industry organizations have joined forces to create a farmers’ relief fund to provide assistance. “Following the immense losses caused by Hurricane Helene, and with Hurricane Milton possibly bringing further impacts to our state, I’m urging all of our local, state and federal partners to join efforts in bringing them relief,” Governor Kemp said. “That’s why we’re calling on the federal government and Congress to act quickly in appropriating relief funds and helping them rebuild their livelihoods.” “I have seen the devastation first-hand in visits to the affected regions, and I have heard of the struggles our friends and neighbors have faced since Hurricane Helene,” said UGA CAES Dean Nick Place. “From significant losses in the agricultural sector to challenges meeting basic needs like food and water, it has been a difficult time for Georgians.” “We’ve seen agricultural producers across the state dealing with power loss and property damage, both of which have short- and long-term effects on their crops and livelihood. In the coming weeks and months, it will be critical that we do all we can to support Georgia producers as they navigate lost income and determine the next steps forward in their operations.”

Tropics: Latest on Kirk, Leslie; Milton over Gulf of Mexico - On the heels of Hurricane Helene, the Category 4 storm that wrecked Florida's Gulf coast and most of the Southeast, the tropics are not slowing down. The National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring three named storms still strengthening in the Atlantic and in the Gulf of Mexico. Upgraded to hurricane status Tuesday night, now Category 3 Kirk is expected to hold at this strength for the next few days, the NHC said. Kirk is located about 1,155 miles west of the Azores with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph and a minimum central pressure of 964 mb, making the system a major hurricane. Small fluctuations in intensity could happen over the next few days, but Kirk is expected to begin weakening over the weekend. While the monster system is not expected to hit any land, the NHC warns people in the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, the Greater Antilles and U.S. east coast that swells from Kirk will start spreading westward soon. Over the weekend, these areas could see life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Hurricane Leslie has been upgraded into a hurricane after strengthening over the Atlantic Ocean on Friday, according to the National Hurricane Center. Hurricane Leslie has maximum sustained winds of 90 mph and a minimum central pressure of 980 mb. Leslie is expected to follow a quicker west-northwestward movement over the weekend. The NHC is closely monitoring Hurricane Milton, in the Caribbean Sea, which could slam Florida as a Cat 3 storm. Regardless of any formation, the system is expected to be a major rain event for Florida.

Tropical Storm “Milton” forms, forecast to strike Florida as a hurricane - Tropical Storm “Milton” formed in the Gulf of Mexico at 17:25 UTC on October 5, 2024, as the 13th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. The current forecast track takes it right toward Florida, strengthening into a hurricane before making landfall. At the time of formation, the center of Milton was located approximately 355 km (220 miles) north-northeast of Veracruz, Mexico, and 590 km (365 miles) west-northwest of Progreso, Mexico. The system had maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h (40 mph), with higher gusts, and was moving slowly north-northeast at 6 km/h (3 mph). The storm’s minimum central pressure was estimated at 1 006 hPa. The current forecast calls for strengthening in the coming days and Milton is expected to reach hurricane strength before striking central Florida’s west coast next week. Areas of heavy rainfall will also impact portions of Florida on Sunday and Monday, October 5 and 6, well ahead of the tropical system, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected by later Tuesday through Wednesday, October 9. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding. Residents in the affected areas are advised to monitor updates and prepare for severe weather conditions.

Hurricane Milton is a Category 5. Florida orders evacuations and scrambles to clear Helene’s debris (AP) — Milton rapidly strengthened in the Gulf of Mexico on Monday to become a Category 5 hurricane on a path toward Florida, threatening a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay, leading to evacuation orders and lending more urgency to the cleanup from Hurricane Helene, which swamped the same stretch of coastline less than two weeks ago.A hurricane warning was issued for parts of Mexico’s Yucatan state, and much of Florida’s west coast was under hurricane and storm surge watches. Florida’s Lake Okeechobee, which often floods during intense storms, was also under a hurricane watch.“This is the real deal here with Milton,” Tampa Mayor Jane Castor said at a news conference. “If you want to take on Mother Nature, she wins 100% of the time.” Milton intensified quickly Monday and was expected to become a large hurricane over the eastern Gulf. It had maximum sustained winds of 160 mph (257 kph), the National Hurricane Center said. The storm’s center was about 130 miles (210 kilometers) west-northwest of Progreso, Mexico, and about 720 miles (1,160 kilometers) southwest of Tampa at midday Monday, moving east-southeast at 9 mph (15 kph).Its center could come ashore Wednesday in the Tampa Bay area, and it could remain a hurricane as it moves across central Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean. That would largely spare other states ravaged by Helene, which killed at least 230 people on its path from Florida to the Appalachian Mountains. Forecasters warned of a possible 8- to 12-foot storm surge (2.4 to 3.6 meters) in Tampa Bay and said flash and river flooding could result from 5 to 10 inches (13 to 25 centimeters) of rain in mainland Florida and the Keys, with as much as 15 inches (38 centimeters) in places. The Tampa Bay area is still rebounding from Helene and its powerful surge. Twelve people died, with the worst damage along a string of barrier islands from St. Petersburg to Clearwater.Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said Monday that it was imperative that messes from Helene be cleared ahead of Milton’s arrival so they don’t become projectiles. More than 300 vehicles picked up debris Sunday but encountered a locked landfill gate when they tried to drop it off. State troopers used a rope tied to a pickup truck and busted it open, DeSantis said. “We don’t have time for bureaucracy and red tape,” DeSantis said.Lifeguards in Pinellas County, on the peninsula that forms Tampa Bay, removed beach chairs and other items that could take flight in strong winds. Elsewhere, stoves, chairs, refrigerators and kitchen tables waited in heaps to be picked up.Sarah “They’ve screwed around and haven’t picked the debris up, and now they’re scrambling to get it picked up,” “If this one does hit, it’s going to be flying missiles. Stuff’s going to be floating and flying in the air.” Hillsborough County, home to Tampa, ordered evacuations for areas adjacent to Tampa Bay and for all mobile and manufactured homes by Tuesday night. “Yes, this stinks. We know that, and it comes on the heels of where a lot of us are still recovering from Hurricane Helene,” Sheriff Chad Chronister said. “But if you safeguard your families, you will be alive.” Milton’s approach stirred memories of 2017’s Hurricane Irma, when about 7 million people were urged to evacuate Florida in an exodus that jammed freeways and clogged gas stations. Some people who left vowed never to evacuate again. Even though Tanya Marunchak’s Belleair Beach home was flooded with more than 4 feet (1.2 meters) of water from Helene, she and her husband were unsure Monday morning if they should evacuate. She wanted to leave, but her husband thought their three-story home was sturdy enough to withstand Milton.If residents don’t evacuate, it could put first responders in jeopardy or make rescues impossible: “If you remain there, you could die and my men and women could die trying to rescue you,” Hillsborough Fire Rescue Chief Jason Dougherty said. The University of Central Florida in Orlando said it would close midweek, but Walt Disney World said it was operating normally for the time being. All road tolls were suspended in western central Florida. The St. Pete-Clearwater International Airport said it would close after the last flight Tuesday, and Tampa International Airport said it planned to halt airline and cargo flights starting Tuesday morning.All classes and school activities in Pinellas County, home to St. Petersburg, closed Monday through Wednesday, and schools were being converted into shelters. Officials in Tampa freed city garages to residents hoping to protect their cars from flooding.The coastal Mexican state of Yucatan canceled classes along the coast after forecasters predicted Milton would brush the northern part of the state. The cancellations included its most heavily populated Gulf coast cities, like Progreso; the capital, Merida; and the natural protected area of Celestun, known for its flamingoes. It has been two decades since so many storms crisscrossed Florida in such a short period of time. In 2004, an unprecedented five storms struck Florida within six weeks, including three hurricanes that pummeled central Florida.

Why experts are so scared of Hurricane Milton - The nation’s eyes are on Florida as Hurricane Milton seems poised to strike the state this week — nearly two weeks after experiencing the destruction of Hurricane Helene. Residents of the Sunshine State are no strangers to hurricanes, but experts are sounding the alarm over Milton. The storm rapidly intensified into a Category 5 hurricane Monday, only one day after it officially became a hurricane, and “is expected to grow in size and remain an extremely dangerous hurricane when it approaches the west coast of Florida on Wednesday,” according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Here’s why experts are concerned about the storm. The storm officially became a hurricane Sunday, according to the NHC, and on Monday, it had already intensified into a Category 5 hurricane. Rapid intensification, per the NHC, is when “the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone” rise “at least 30 knots in a 24 hour period[.]” Thirty knots is equal to just below 35 miles per hour (mph). “This is what rapid intensification looks like, going to sleep to a meh category 1 hurricane & waking up to a monster category 5 with 160 mph winds,” CNN meteorologist Elisa Raffa said in a post on the social platform X Monday that featured maps with Milton. “Truly mind-boggling & scary,” Raffa continued in her post. “This is the trend as our oceans continue to trap heat & fuel stronger storms.” The science nonprofit Climate Central noted Milton’s rapid intensification in a thread on X Monday, stating that oceans rising in temperature “due to human-caused climate change, are fueling stronger tropical cyclones.”“#Milton rapidly intensified over sea surface temperatures in the Western Gulf of Mexico, which have been made hundreds of times more likely to be anomalously warm due to climate change,” Climate Central said later in the thread.A Florida meteorologist who recently got emotional when talking about the severity of Milton said that the Gulf of Mexico, where the storm is currently located, has waters that are “so incredibly hot.”“You know what’s driving that, I don’t have to tell you … global warming, climate change leading to this and becoming an increasing threat,” John Morales said.The NHC said in a forecast discussion Monday that “Milton is expected to grow in size and remain an extremely dangerous hurricane when it approaches the west coast of Florida on Wednesday.” “A large area of destructive storm surge will occur along parts of the west coast of Florida on Wednesday,” the agency continued. “This is an extremely life-threatening situation, and residents in those areas should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate immediately if told to do so.”Beyond the storm surge, the NHC also said that possibly “devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the west coast of Florida where a Hurricane Warning is in effect” and that zones “of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night.”“This rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding,” the agency continued.Bryan Bennett, a Tampa-area meteorologist, said in a post on X Monday that Milton “COULD BE OUR KATRINA,” referencing the cataclysmic 2004 storm that caused mass destruction in New Orleans.“Winds rotate counterclockwise around a hurricane,” Bennett said. “If the storm makes landfall in Pasco [County] or Pinellas [County], not only will it significantly flood [Clearwater] & St. Petersburg, but much of south Tampa, MacDill [Air Force Base], & downtown Tampa may go underwater.”Bennett also said when the storm makes landfall, “winds are going to be sustained around 125, gusting to 155 mph,” adding that a wind speed at “150 mph wind is strong enough to take off a roof and damage exterior walls of a well built home.”“I typically try to keep my message calm & low key,” Bennett said in his post. “But, the potential devastation that this storm may cause is the reason for my concern/worry for my home -Tampa Bay. That is also why I am pushing for so many people to please evacuate.”

Florida meteorologist chokes up talking about Hurricane Milton - A south Florida meteorologist got emotional as he described the severity of Hurricane Milton, a Category 5 storm raging through the Gulf of Mexico on Monday that is expected to make landfall in the U.S. this week. “It’s just an incredible, incredible, incredible Hurricane,” said John Morales, a certified consulting meteorologist and hurricane specialist for NBC6 in Miami. Morales’s voice cracked as he described the storm rapidly gaining in intensity, noting the hurricane’s pressure has dropped 50 millibars in 10 hours.“I apologize,” he said on the station’s air, “but this is just horrific.”Milton has maximum sustained winds of 160 miles per hour and is currently passing through the Gulf of Mexico, where the seas are “so incredibly hot,” Morales reported. “You know what’s driving that, I don’t have to tell you … global warming, climate change leading to this and becoming an increasing threat,” he continued, noting many of the people in Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula, which will be in the path of the storm, “have just the very basics.” Milton’s impending landfall in Florida comes just days after Hurricane Helene ravaged several states in the Southeastern U.S. and led to widespread devastation across western North Carolina.

Yucatán Peninsula in path of extremely dangerous Category 5 Hurricane “Milton” — Florida braces for major impact on Wednesday - Hurricane “Milton” rapidly intensified into a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale at 15:55 UTC on October 7, 2024, making it the strongest Gulf of Mexico hurricane this late in the calendar year in the satellite era (since 1966). Milton is forecast to move near or just north of the Yucatán Peninsula today and Tuesday, then cross the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by Wednesday.

• Damaging hurricane-force winds are expected across portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. A life-threatening storm surge with damaging waves is also likely along portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.
• There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches are now in effect for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula and residents in that area should follow any advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to do so.
• Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding.

At 15:55 UTC (10:55 CDT) on October 7, the eye of Category 5 Hurricane “Milton” was located 200 km (130 miles) WNW of Progreso, Mexico, and 1 150 km (720 miles) SW of Tampa, Florida. The system had maximum sustained winds of 250 km/h (160 mph) and a minimum central pressure of 925 hPa. Milton is moving east-southeast at 15 km/h (9 mph). An eastward to east-southeastward motion is expected through tonight, followed by a turn toward the east and northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. The hurricane is forecast to move near or just north of the Yucatán Peninsula today and Tuesday, October 8 then cross the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by Wednesday, October 9. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 km (30 miles) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 130 km (80 miles). Milton’s intensification to a Category 5 hurricane marks the third fastest rapid intensification recorded in the Atlantic Basin, according to the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center. This rapid development places Milton behind only hurricanes Wilma in 2005 and Felix in 2007 in terms of speed of intensification. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for areas from Celestún to Río Lagartos. Residents in these regions should prepare for severe weather conditions. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for areas from Río Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Campeche to south of Celestún, and the Florida Gulf coast from Chokoloskee to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay. Additionally, the Dry Tortugas and Lake Okeechobee are under a Hurricane Watch, as conditions may worsen in the coming hours. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the Florida Gulf coast from Flamingo northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River. This includes Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay, where rising water levels pose a significant risk to coastal communities. A Tropical Storm Warning is currently in effect for Río Lagartos to Cancún, as well as Campeche to the south of Celestún. These regions are expected to experience tropical storm conditions soon. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Florida Gulf coast from Flamingo to south of Chokoloskee, and the Florida Gulf coast north of the mouth of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass. This also includes the Lower, Middle, and Upper Florida Keys, as well as Florida Bay, where tropical storm conditions are possible.

Hurricane Milton tracker: Dangerous Category 5 storm with sustained 180 mph winds heads toward Florida, massive evacuations ordered - Hurricane Milton rapidly intensified Monday morning, strengthening from a Category 4 to a dangerous Category 5 hurricane with sustained winds of around 180 mph as it took aim at Florida’s Gulf Coast, which is still reeling from Helene’s record-breaking landfall just over a week ago.“Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida,” the National Hurricane Center said in its 5 p.m. ET update. Millions are facing the prospect of evacuation as Milton gains steam along its path toward the Tampa Bay area, where it is expected to make landfall Wednesday evening. If it remains on its current path, Milton could be the worst storm to hit the Tampa area in over 100 years.The hurricane is one of only 40 hurricanes on record that have escalated to a Category 5 level in the Atlantic, and one of seven hurricanes to have gone from a Category 1 classification to a Category 5 in 24 hours or less. Officials with the Federal Emergency Management Agency described Milton as the third-fastest-growing storm on record in the Atlantic, following Hurricanes Wilma (2005) and Felix (2007), during a call with reporters Monday afternoon. Speaking at a press conference Monday alongside Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, the state’s director of emergency management, Kevin Guthrie, urged those in the Tampa Bay area to evacuate.“I beg you. I implore you,” Guthrie said. “Drowning deaths due to storm surge are 100% preventable if you leave.”DeSantis said Monday that 51 counties in Florida are now under a state of emergency. President Biden declared a state of emergency in Florida on Monday, ordering federal assistance to help supplement state and local efforts responding to Hurricane Milton. The Mexican government issued a hurricane watch for the coast of Mexico from Celestún to Cabo Catoche, and a tropical storm warning from Celestún to Cancún, according to the National Hurricane Center. Those in the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys and the northwestern Bahamas are also being urged to monitor the hurricane’s progress. As of 5 p.m. ET Monday:

• Milton was located around 80 miles west-northwest of Progreso, Mexico.
• It was about 675 miles southwest of Tampa.
• The storm had maximum sustained winds of 180 mph.
• The storm was moving east-southeast at 10 mph.

The NHC warned Monday morning of “an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning Tuesday night or early Wednesday.”“Residents in that area should follow any advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to do so,” the hurricane center said.Portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys can expect rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals up to 15 inches through Wednesday night. Such rainfall brings “the risk of considerable flash, urban and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding,” meteorologists said. Meanwhile, portions of the northern Yucatán Peninsula can expect 2 to 4 inches of rainfall. As of 5 p.m. ET Monday, a hurricane warning is in effect for:

• Celestún to Rio Lagartos, Mexico
• Florida’s west coast, from Bonita Beach to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay

A “hurricane warning” means hurricane conditions are expected within the area. Precautions and preparation for people and property should be completed.A storm surge warning is in effect for: The west coast of Florida from Flamingo to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor A "storm surge warning" means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36 hours.As of Monday morning, the Florida Division of Emergency Management had ordered evacuations for six Florida counties along the state’s west coast.During a press conference Monday morning, DeSantis urged residents to follow orders but stressed they do not have to travel far to be safe.“You don’t have to evacuate hundreds of miles,” he said. “If you’re in areas that are susceptible to storm surge, you go to areas that are not susceptible to that. Every county has places within them where you can go. Maybe it’s a friend’s house, maybe it’s a hotel, maybe it’s a shelter.”Mandatory evacuations are in effect for:

• Charlotte County, especially in zones on the water along the Gulf, Charlotte Harbor and the Myakka and Peace rivers
• Hillsborough County
• Pasco County, especially those living in low-lying areas or manufactured homes, mobile homes or RVs
• Pinellas County and its residential health care facilities across three specific county zones

Hurricane Milton sets storm intensity records as it moves toward Florida Gulf Coast- - Hurricane Milton became one of the strongest storms ever recorded in the Atlantic on Monday as it reached maximum sustained winds of 180 miles per hour and barreled across the Gulf of Mexico toward Florida. The intense Category 5 hurricane is currently projected to make landfall in the Tampa Bay region—an area with more than 3.3 million residents—late on Wednesday with life-threatening force. Evacuation orders were issued for millions of people in nine Florida counties as of Monday evening including Charlotte, Citrus, Hillsborough, Lee, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas and Sarasota. More than 50 Florida counties are now under state of emergency orders. Florida’s emergency management director Kevin Guthrie said people needed to leave vulnerable areas on Monday, rather than wait any longer. “If your plan calls for you to evacuate, you should do so today,” he said. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued a statement at 5:00 p.m. on Monday that said, “Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida.” The storm achieved what is known as “extreme rapid intensification,” which is defined as a 58 miles per hour increase in 24 hours. Milton leapt from a Category 1 to 5 storm as winds increased by 95 miles per hour in 24 hours. Meteorologists have described the explosive intensification of the storm—which is fueled by record-warm water temperatures in the Gulf driven by capitalist-induced climate change—as “remarkable,” “horrific,” “scary” and “astronomical.” Noah Bergren of Fox 35 Orlando wrote on Twitter/X, “I am at a loss for words to meteorologically describe [to] you the storm’s small eye and intensity. 897mb pressure with 180 MPH max sustained winds and gusts 200+ MPH. This is now the 4th strongest hurricane ever recorded by pressure on this side of the world. The eye is TINY at nearly 3.8 miles wide. This hurricane is nearing the mathematical limit of what Earth’s atmosphere over this ocean water can produce.” Milton is expected to reach peak intensity by Tuesday morning and then fall to a Category 4 or 3 hurricane as it makes landfall. However, it will also scale up in dimension and the NHC is warning of a surge of 5 to 10 feet along most of the Florida’s Gulf Coast and up to 10 to 15 feet in Tampa Bay. These are the highest storm surge predictions ever made for the Tampa Bay region and nearly double the levels reached two weeks ago by Hurricane Helene which struck Florida’s Big Bend region as a Category 4 storm with 140 miles per hour winds. Piles of debris remain outside flood-damaged homes up and down the western Florida coast. The refuse from the previous storm is expected to contribute to Milton’s damage as it is whipped around in the high winds. Helene moved north over a 500-mile stretch of destruction inundating parts of Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia and Tennessee and, as of this writing, killing 241 people. Some of the most devastating hurricanes to hit the Gulf Coast have been former Category 4 or 5 storms that were weakening but expanding in size at landfall, including Katrina (2005), Rita (2005) and Opal (1995). Speaking to CNN, Jamie Rhome, deputy director of the NHC, said wind speeds could dip below 130 miles per hour but Milton will become more damaging. Rhome said, “These big storms, these large-size storms, produce more impact. So, this growth in size is going to more than compensate for the reduction in intensity, and it’s going to cause problems because you’re going to get a broader swath of impact, and then things like storm surge are actually made much worse by the bigger size.” Rhome continued, “This case it’s going to be a direct impact, a direct shot, and more powerful at that. So we’re going to have potentially catastrophic wind damage over a densely populated portion of the Florida peninsula. … Plus, the storm surge is going to be worse than we saw in Helene in some cases.”

Tampa mayor Jane Castor tells those in single story homes who haven't left that they will "ultimately be in a coffin" - Storm surge will hit “immediately” for Floridians, especially in Tampa and surrounding areas. ABC’s Good Morning America today aired a clip of the city’s mayor, Jane Castor, issuing a sobering warning to those who haven’t evacuated: “If you’re in a single story house and we get a 15ft surge, which means that water comes in immediately, there’s nowhere to go. That home that you’re in ultimately will be a coffin.” Yesterday, Castor also bluntly told residents that if they’re remain in an evacuation area, “you’re going to die.”

Hurricane Milton could cause as much as $175 billion in damage, according to early estimates - Hurricane Milton's once-in-a-century potential could cause damage of more than $50 billion, with the potential to leave behind devastation approaching $175 billion or more in a worst-case scenario, according to leading Wall Street analysts.That would be on top of the carnage already left behind by Hurricane Helene, posing a potential record-breaking path of wreckage."While too early to make insured loss estimates, a major hurricane impact in one of Florida's most heavily populated regions could result in mid-double-digit billion dollar loss," Jefferies equity analyst Yaron Kinar and others said in a note. "A 1-in-100 year event is estimated by some to result in $175 [billion] in losses for landfall in the Tampa region, and $70 [billion] in losses in the [Fort] Myers region."The extent of the potential is hard to pin down and will depend on timing and location, with a landfall closer to Fort Myers being less costly. For a historical comparison, analysts need only to look back two years, when Hurricane Ian hit near the Fort Myers area as a Category 4 storm and left behind more than $50 billion in losses. Ian was considered a 1-in-20-year event. "Should Milton's path through the more developed Tampa region hold, potential losses could be greater," Kinar said.Milton is currently at Category 4 as well, though it could weaken by the time its full force is felt.Wells Fargo noted that the "market seems to be factoring in a loss of over $50 billion (greater than Ian) at this point." The firm set a wide range for potential damage, from $10 billion to $100 billion.The region already has been rocked — Helene barreled through the region 12 days ago, and left behind devastation thatMoody's on Tuesday estimated at some $11 billion. In addition to the property damage, Moody's figures that the National Flood Insurance Program likely will see losses approaching $2 billion. The firm's analysts have not yet estimated potential damage from Milton. "Hurricane Helene is by far the most impactful event of the current 2024 hurricane season thus far, though this may quickly change with Major Hurricane Milton due to impact Florida in the coming days," said Mohsen Rahnama, chief risk modeling officer at Moody's.Moody's also noted that many in the worst-affected regions of where Helene hit do not have flood insurance, "meaning most of the damage will be uninsured, and economic property losses will far outweigh insured losses," said Firas Saleh, the firm's director of U.S. inland flood models.Milton weakened a bit Tuesday but was still carrying winds of 145 mph. It is expected to hit Tampa on Wednesday morning and bring 10- to 15-foot storm surges to Tampa Bay.While the danger and damage to the region are expected to be enormous, the storm does not pose the same danger to adjoining states that Helene pummeled.

Florida gas stations are running out of fuel as people flee Hurricane Milton --Nearly 16% of gas stations in Florida had run out of fuel as of late-morning Tuesday as people flee north to escape the path of Hurricane Milton, according to data from GasBuddy. Many stations simply can't keep up with gasoline demand as millions of Floridians collectively evacuate, said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. About 1,200 of the state's 7,900 gas stations are currently without fuel, according to the data."The sheer bulk of this is simply people getting out of harm's way," De Haan told CNBC. Prices should not rise as a consequence of the storm because infrastructure and refineries are not expected to be impacted, he said.Milton is forecast to make landfall on the west-central coast of Florida on Wednesday night and then move east-northeastward across the central part of the state through Thursday, according to the National Hurricane Center.Milton is currently a Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph. The storm is forecast to remain "an extremely dangerous hurricane" through landfall in Florida, according to the forecasters. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said Tuesday morning that the state was stockpiling fuel ahead of the storm. Gas stations are running out of fuel and lines are long but there is not a shortage in the state, DeSantis said.

7th confirmed tornado of the day hits Florida as Milton’s storm surge begins - (2 videos) Meteorologists at the National Weather Service in Miami have confirmed the 7th tornado linked to Hurricane “Milton” just hours before its expected landfall in Florida. As of 14:40 LT, 39 Tornado Warnings have been issued, with more tornadoes possible through the night. Tropical-storm-force winds have begun impacting Florida’s west coast, while rising water levels at the Naples Pier indicate the start of Milton’s storm surge across southwestern coastal areas. Multiple warnings remain in effect across the Florida peninsula. Meteorologists at the National Weather Service (NWS) office in Miami have confirmed 7th tornado associated with Hurricane “Milton” just hours before its landfall in Florida. “We’ve just received reports of structures damaged in Lakeport, FL as the most recent tornado-warned storm moved through the area. This is at least the 7th confirmed tornado of the day and the second tornado to impact Lakeport today. As of 14:40 LT, the office has issued 39 Tornado Warnings. Additional tornadoes are possible today and tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds are now moving onshore the west coast of Florida, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) reported at 19:00 UTC. There are also multiple warnings in effect across the Florida peninsula. Views from the Naples Pier this afternoon indicate that Milton’s surge is beginning to arrive across coastal southwestern Florida with water levels steadily rising during what should be low tide.

LIVE UPDATES: Hurricane Milton spawns multiple tornado warnings— Meteorologists in Severe Weather Center 9 are tracking Hurricane Milton as it approaches Florida.

• 5:55 p.m. update: A tornado warning was issued for some areas in Brevard County, including Merritt Island. Tornado Warning including Merritt Island FL, Rockledge FL and Cocoa FL until 6:15 PM EDT pic.twitter.com/qsBqDMcQJl — NWS Melbourne (@NWSMelbourne) October 9, 2024
• 5:30 p.m. update. A tornado warning was issued for some areas in Brevard County. Tornado Warning including Merritt Island FL, Cocoa Beach FL and Satellite Beach FL until 5:45 PM EDT pic.twitter.com/JNvzr96yZW — NWS Melbourne (@NWSMelbourne) October 9, 2024
• 5:15 p.m. update - As tornado warnings were issued across Central Florida, viewers captured photos of the weather. This picture was sent into WFTV from viewer Jodi:
• 5 p.m. update: According to the National Weather Service, Milton is approaching West-Central Florida as a Category 3 storm. There is a high chance of life-threatening storm surge, damaging winds and flooding rains expected across portions of Central and Southwest Florida.Currently, Milton has maximum sustained winds of 120 mph, moving at 17 mph.The central pressure is at 948 MB.
• 4:30 p.m. update -A tornado warning was issued for parts of Orange and Osceola Counties.This advisory lasts until 5:15 p.m.Tornado Warning including Conway FL, Azalea Park FL and Pine Castle FL until 5:15 PM EDT pic.twitter.com/6HulDu4cTv— NWS Melbourne (@NWSMelbourne) October 9, 2024
• 3:30 p.m. update: An active Tornado Warning has been extended into parts of southeastern Orange County.The advisory also includes most of east Osceola County, including Holopaw and Deer Park.Tornado Warning including Lake Mary Jane FL, Holopaw FL and Deer Park FL until 4:00 PM EDT pic.twitter.com/dY9sJT6Pmt — NWS Melbourne (@NWSMelbourne) October 9, 2024 The Tornado Warning is expected to last until 4 p.m.
• 3:18 p.m. update: The National Weather Service said Florida has reported 53 tornado warnings Wednesday as of 3 p.m. This comes as Hurricane Milton continues to make its way to impact Florida’s Gulf Coast.10/9 at 3pm: Here is a view of all of the *Tornado Warnings* issued by NWS Tampa Bay, NWS Miami, and NWS Melbourne thus far. As of 3pm, 53 total tornado warnings have been issued today... 41 issued by NWS MiamiPlease remain aware for current and future tornado warnings! https://t.co/j3fr86cifC pic.twitter.com/Zc3WjqD7D6— NWS Miami (@NWSMiami) October 9, 2024The areas generating the tornado warnings have been moving north through Polk, Osceola and Brevard counties.Channel 9 will have continuing coverage of active tornado warnings and Hurricane Milton on WFTV.
• 2:55 p.m. update: The National Weather Service said a large portion of southeastern Central Florida is seeing multiple tornado warnings.NWS released a map showing at least 8 active tornado warnings.
• 2:48 PM | All red-highlighted areas on this map are under a Tornado WARNING. As you can see, this is a large portion of east central Florida. Please have multiple ways to receive warnings and seek shelter if a warning is issued for your location! pic.twitter.com/gtTUnLwX0w — NWS Melbourne (@NWSMelbourne) October 9, 2024Some of the active areas are in Polk, Osceola and Brevard counties.WFTV has live coverage of the storms now on Channel 9.
• 2:25 p.m. update: A Tornado Warning has been issued for parts of Osceola County and Brevard County.The advisory includes parts of southern Osceola County, including Yeehaw Junction, Kenansville, and Deer Park.The advisory also includes the rural area of southwest Brevard County.Tornado Warning including Brevard County, FL, Indian River County, FL, Osceola County, FL until 3:00 PM EDT pic.twitter.com/IXGu1iQoOU— NWS Melbourne (@NWSMelbourne) October 9, 2024

Hurricane Milton makes landfall, slamming into Florida with destructive winds, catastrophic storm surge - Hurricane Milton made landfall as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds on Wednesday near Siesta Key, Florida, slamming into the state's west coast before churning its way eastward.The catastrophic landfall comes barely two weeks after Hurricane Helene, which battered Florida before causing devastation in North Carolina. Florida residents have spent the interim boarding up windows and evacuating their homes in preparation for Milton."Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida," the National Hurricane Center said Wednesday.The storm is expected to pass over central Florida and into the Atlantic through Wednesday night and into Thursday morning. As of 9 p.m., power was out for 1 million customers, while the storm spurred tornadoes throughout the state. Milton poses a threat of a historically deep storm surge, as well as wind gusts well over 100 mph over the next 36 hours. Storm surge forecasts along the central western coast are predicting 10 to 15 feet of water topped with devastating waves driven by hurricane-force winds, according to FOX Weather. "Yes, you might have ‘been through hurricanes before,'" FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross said. "But you weren't through the 1921 storm that put water over much of Pinellas County, or the 1848 hurricane that put 15 feet of Gulf water where downtown Tampa is today." Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has activated thousands of National Guard members who are standing by to conduct search and rescue following the storm. President Biden's administration has also pre-deployed resources and hundreds of personnel.Biden declared Florida a disaster area ahead of Milton's landfall to facilitate FEMA's preparations and response.The National Hurricane Center in Miami warned early Wednesday evening that the northern eyewall of Hurricane Milton had started to spread onshore along the Florida Gulf Coast, and told residents to "shelter in place as these extremely dangerous hurricane-force winds overspread the region."Public Safety Information Manager for Florida’s Incident Support Team James Lucas warned that weather conditions will prevent rescuers from saving lives as Hurricane Milton makes landfall and wallops the state. "Weather conditions will deteriorate so rapidly that rescue workers cannot get in," Lucas told Fox News Digital’s Gabriele Regalbuto. "That means that law enforcement officers are not going to be able to respond to any emergencies … as the storm is pushing through at 100 mph." Lucas said the life safety of first responders and citizens is paramount."We’re not going to be able to make it into those affected areas during the storm," Lucas said. "That’s why the Mayor of Tampa, the Governor of Florida is asking people in those areas to evacuate."

VIDEO: Tampa slammed by Hurricane Milton as destructive wind pummels city — Hurricane Milton slammed the Tampa-St. Petersburg areawith over 100 mph wind gusts and torrential rain Wednesday, knocking out power to well over a million in the metro area and damaging the home of the city's baseball team.St. Petersburg's airport reported more than three hours of gusts over 70 mph, including seven gusts over 90 mph and a peak gust of 101 mph just after 10:30 p.m. ET. The ferocious winds caused significant damage to Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, where video showed massive tears in the stadium's fabric roof. The facility is home to the Tampa Bay Rays. Tropicana Field was being used as a temporary staging location for hundreds of first responders. According to local authorities, there were no reports of any injuries associated with the damage to the stadium.Tampa International Airport recorded a peak gust of 83 mph so far. Power outages reached over 1.25 million customers just in Hillsborough and Pinellas County alone, according to PowerOutage.us.Milton roared onshore just south of the St. Petersburg area in Siesta Key on Wednesday evening as a major Category 3 storm. But while the southern landfall spared the area from a feared record storm surge in Tampa Bay, flooding became an issue anyway as Milton dumped several inches of rain in minutes.A Flash Flood Emergency covered 2 million people in the metro area. Over 5 inches of rain fell in one hour in St. Petersburg’s Albert Whitted Airport, over 10 inches in 3.5 hours, and 18 inches in 24 hours.FOX Weather Meteorologist Steve Bender reports from Tampa where gusts over 80 mph have left over 1 million in the metro area without power and a Flash Flood Emergency amid several inches of rain. "This is a particularly dangerous situation," the National Weather Service warned. "Seek higher ground now!"

Hurricane Milton live tracker: Storm weakens to Category 2 after landfall on Florida coast; 1.9 million customers left without power - Hurricane Milton made landfall as an "extremely dangerous" Category 3 storm on Florida's coast Wednesday night, knocking out power to more than 1.9 million homes and businesses. The storm made landfall near Siesta Key, located around 7 miles south of Sarasota, with maximum sustained winds of around 120 mph, the National Hurricane Center said.Pounding, heavy rains unloaded on the Tampa area, which was under a flash flood emergency until 2:30 a.m. ET. Storm surge continued to build south of where the storm made landfall.Milton, which has weakened to a Category 2 storm, made landfall in Florida just weeks after Hurricane Helene made landfall in Florida as a Category 4 storm. Over 1.9 million utility customers were without power in Florida as of 11:30 p.m. ET, according to PowerOutage.us. After Hurricane Milton hit Tampa Bay with heavy rainfall and strong winds, the fabric roof of Tropicana Field, where the Tama Bay Rays baseball team play, was left in tatters. Video posted by WFTS meteorologist Jason Adams captured the damage. Flash flood emergency declarations, the most severe flood warning issued by the National Weather Service, are following the path of Hurricane Milton as it pushes along Florida's I-4 corridor, the agency said late Thursday. "Flash Flood Emergencies are expanding across the I-4 corridor. This situation is extremely rare and only issued for a severe threat to life due to flooding," NWS said in a post to X.The agency urged Florida residents in the region to take the following steps:

• Stay where you are; do not drive
• Plan for water to rise and have a path to higher ground
• Call 911 if you need emergency help

On its website, the NWS says that flash flood emergencies are issued for "the exceedingly rare situations when extremely heavy rain is leading to a severe threat to human life and catastrophic damage from a flash flood is happening or will happen soon. Typically, emergency officials are reporting life-threatening water rises resulting in water rescues/evacuations." Footage captured by the dashcam of a Lee County sheriff’s deputy shows multiple electrical transformers bursting simultaneously across the tree line.The storm has left an estimated 1.6 million homes and businesses in Florida without power, according to PowerOutage.us. The National Weather Service has released an updated list of ongoing warnings for Florida. As of 11 p.m. ET, a storm surge warning is in effect for

• Florida's west coast from Flamingo northward to Anclote River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
• Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the St. Johns River

A hurricane warning is in effect for

• Florida's west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay
• Florida's east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach

With maximum sustained winds of 105 mph and higher gusts, Hurricane Milton was "bringing devastating rains and damaging winds inland over portions of central Florida," the National Hurricane Center said in its 11 p.m. ET advisory.Milton is moving east-northeast at around 16 mph, meteorologists said in the bulletin, adding "this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday, followed by a turn toward the east on late Thursday."Overnight into Thursday, Milton "will continue to move across the central part of the Florida peninsula overnight, and emerge off the east coast of Florida on Thursday.""Milton is forecast to maintain hurricane intensity while crossing Florida overnight," forecasters said. "After moving into the Atlantic, Milton is expected to gradually lose tropical characteristics and slowly weaken."

Flying object strikes CNN's Anderson Cooper during live report --CNN’s Anderson Cooper was hit by a flying object Wednesday during a live shot while reporting from Florida on Hurricane Milton. Cooper was reporting from Bradenton, Fla., as Milton made landfall, bringing with it 120 mph wind gusts and heavy rainfall. “The wind has really picked up,” Cooper said in remarks highlighted by Mediaite. “The water’s really moving.” “It’s coming from kind of the north, I guess northeast. And the water is now really starting to pour over. If you look at the ground … woah,” Cooper said when he was interrupted by an unidentified square object hitting him in the face and chest.He took a pause and step back, then addressed viewers again.“OK, that wasn’t good,” he said, noting he would head inside shortly.Officials had warned of the risks of flying debris from Milton, particularly given the destruction already caused by Hurricane Helene just two weeks ago.

Hurricane Milton plows across Florida, pounding cities and whipping up tornadoes. At least 4 dead (AP) — Hurricane Milton barreled into the Atlantic Ocean on Thursday after plowing across Florida, pounding cities with ferocious winds and rain, and whipping up a barrage of tornadoes. It caused at least four deaths and compounded the misery wrought by Helene while sparing Tampa a direct hit.The storm tracked to the south in the final hours and made landfall as a Category 3 storm Wednesday night in Siesta Key, about 70 miles (112 kilometers) south of Tampa. While it caused a lot of damage and water levels may continue to rise for days, Gov. Ron DeSantis said it was not “the worst case scenario.”The deadly storm surge feared for Tampa appears not to have materialized, though the situation in the area was still a major emergency. The storm brought up to 18 inches (45 centimeters) of rain to some parts of the area, according to the governor.DeSantis said the worst storm surge appeared to be in Sarasota County, where it was 8 to 10 feet (2.5 to 3 meters) — lower than in the worst place during Helene.“We will better understand the extent of the damage as the day progresses,” he said. “The storm was significant but thankfully, this was not the worst case scenario.”As dawn broke Thursday, officials repeated that the danger had not passed: Storm surge warnings were issued for much of the east-central coast of Florida and northward into Georgia, and tropical storm warnings were in place along the coast into South Carolina. Officials in the hard-hit Florida counties of Hillsborough, Pinellas, Sarasota and Lee urged people to stay home, warning of downed power lines, trees in roads, blocked bridges and flooding.“We’ll let you know when it’s safe to come out,” Sheriff Chad Chronister of Hillsborough County, home to Tampa, said on Facebook.The storm knocked out power across a large section of Florida, with more than 3.2 million homes and businesses without electricity, according to poweroutage.us, which tracks utility reports.The fabric that serves as the roof of Tropicana Field — home of the Tampa Bay Rays baseball team in St. Petersburg — was ripped to shreds by the fierce winds. It was not immediately clear if there was damage inside. Before the storm hit, first responders were moved from a staging area there.

Hurricane Milton leaves behind a swath of devastation from Tampa Bay to Daytona Beach - Hurricane Milton careened across the Florida Peninsula throughout Wednesday night and moved off over the Atlantic Ocean early Thursday morning. A dozen people are known to have died as a result of Milton, so far. At least five were killed in the widespread outbreak of tornadoes preceding landfall of the massive storm late Wednesday. Insurers estimate the total losses from Milton could reach $60 billion. Milton was a Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 130 mph (209 kph) when it made landfall 70 miles south of Tampa at Siesta Key, a barrier island partially in the city of Sarasota. After rapidly intensifying into a powerful Category 5 storm over the Gulf of Mexico with winds exceeding 180 mph (289 kph) on Monday, Milton’s wind speeds decreased as the storm approached the west coast of Florida. More than 3.3 million people were without power at the peak Thursday and just a few hundreds of thousands have been restored since. There are at least 12 active boil water notices issued across the state. Sarasota County, where Milton made landfall, saw the highest storm surge at between 8-10 feet. Elsewhere, storm surges varied between 3-6 feet from Charlotte Harbor to Naples. Tampa Bay experienced a “reverse storm surge,” which caused water to drain out of the bay rather than inundate it. This phenomenon was due to Milton landing south of the area where the offshore winds moved in a clockwise, east-west direction away from shore. The hurricane dumped at least 6 to 12 inches of rain on its course from the Gulf of Mexico to the Atlantic Ocean. The heaviest rainfall was concentrated in a relatively narrow strip of the state, extending from the Tampa area in the southwest, through Orlando, and up toward Daytona Beach in the northeast. A flash flood emergency was issued from Tampa to St. Petersburg which recorded almost 19 inches of rain. Plant City, about 30 miles east of Tampa, suffered devastating flooding. Home of the largest strawberry farms in Florida, the average income for a household in the unincorporated city is $37,584. Residents in one mobile home park reported waist-deep water early Thursday morning. St. Petersburg, with a population of roughly 261,000, bore the brunt of Milton’s winds. The fabric roof covering Tropicana Field, home of the Tampa Bay Rays baseball team, is in tatters. While no one was injured, the stadium was to have been a staging area for emergency responders, with thousands of cots set up on the field. A construction crane, which is building what will be the tallest residential tower on Florida’s Gulf Coast, smashed into a neighboring building that houses the newsroom of the Tampa Bay Times. No one was injured in the accident. The most distinctive, and surprising, feature of Milton was the onslaught of tornadoes that arrived ahead of its landfall. While it is not uncommon for hurricanes to produce tornadoes, they arrived earlier than expected and were exceptionally strong and long-lived. As reported by the Washington Post, the National Weather Service issued 126 tornado warnings, with as many as 18 active at the same time across the state. There were 48 confirmed reports of tornadoes touching down, some of which may have traveled over five miles, exceeding the average tornado distance of 3.5 miles. Once the National Weather Service confirms the number of tornado touchdowns, this outbreak could be among the worst in Florida’s recorded history. Previously, the highest number of tornadoes recorded in Florida in a single day was 22.

Tampa Bay Rays announcer describes 'devastating' damage to Tropicana Field - Tampa Bay Rays announcer Dewayne Staats described the damage from Hurricane Milton to Tropicana Field, home of the Tampa Major League Baseball team, as “devastating” and questioned if the roof of the stadium, which was ripped off the storm, could be rebuilt in time for the new season. “It’s devastating. What’s happened here with Tropicana Field and other parts of this community,” Staats said in an interview with Blake Burman, moderator of “The Hill” and chief Washington correspondent for NewsNation. “It’s difficult to believe that they could reconstruct the top of this ballpark again in time for the new season. Now, nothing is impossible in today’s world, but as we look at that right now, it looks a very difficult task,” Staats added. The field was being used as a shelter for first responders prior to its roof getting torn off. The Tampa Bay Times on Thursday reported that only a few panels of the roof remain, and that there was “no other obvious structural damage to the building viewed from the outside.” Staats, who’s been an on-air commentator for the Rays since 1998, added that while the challenges related to fixing the field are “major,” there are still greater concerns for the community. “Going forward, with all of the challenges in this community of the ballpark, it’s a major one, but it is second or third or fourth or fifth down the line, because there are a lot of people hurting and looking for places to stay,” Staats said. “And our hearts go out to all of those who have lost loved ones and who have lost their homes, and what has been an overwhelming experience here in the Tampa Bay region,” he added.

Ex-Hurricane “Kirk” brings record breaking floods in Seine-et-Marne, France - Torrential rains from Ex-Hurricane “Kirk” caused widespread flooding across Seine-et-Marne, France, on Thursday, October 10, 2024, with several rivers surpassing water levels recorded during the 2016 floods. The Grand Morin River rose to 3.66 m (12 feet), prompting evacuations and power outages in affected areas. Other regions were also severely impacted, including Paris, where the National Assembly was inundated.

• The Grand Morin River in Seine-et-Marne reached 3.66 m (12 feet) on October 10, surpassing the flood levels of the 2016 disaster, as Ex-Hurricane “Kirk” brought heavy rainfall to the region.
• The flooding caused widespread power outages, school closures, and road blockages. In Coulommiers, 400 homes were left without electricity, and several schools were closed or severely affected by the rising water.
• All outdoor activities are prohibited till Friday due to the extreme flooding, with Red and Orange alerts being active across the affected regions.
• The National Assembly in Paris was flooded after a drainage pipe burst flooding courtrooms and offices in the building.

Severe flooding hit Seine-et-Marne on Thursday, October 10 as Ex-Hurricane “Kirk” passed over the region, bringing heavy rainfall. The Grand Morin River overflowed, causing significant floods in the surrounding areas. Kirk’s remnants started affecting France on Wednesday and by Thursday afternoon the water level of the Grand Morin had already reached 3.66 m (12 feet), surpassing the peak of the 2016 floods, which topped out at 3.42 m (11.2 feet). Water levels were expected to rise further with a potential peak Thursday evening or during the early hours of the night.Several rivers, including the Loing, have also overflowed due to Kirk’s impact. According to the Seine-et-Marne prefecture, special attention is being given to the Petit Morin and Yerres rivers, while the Marne’s levels are of particular concern.The Marne River has been placed under an orange alert by Vigicrues, with the flood peak expected by late Friday morning, October 11 Significant flooding could occur between Condé and Charenton, especially overnight from Thursday to Friday. Firefighters have responded to at least 336 flood-related incidents, primarily rescuing motorists trapped in their vehicles. Fortunately, no injuries or casualties have been reported in the Seine-et-Marne region.

Heavy rainfall across Karnataka claims 3 lives after 130 mm (5.1 inches) overnight, India - Severe flooding hit northern Karnataka overnight on Saturday, October 5, 2024, as heavy rains, triggered by cyclonic activity in the Bay of Bengal, claimed three lives, injured two, and damaged 150 houses. The torrential downpour, with over 130 mm (5.1 inches) of rainfall, caused widespread destruction across multiple districts, including Ballari and Bengaluru.

• Heavy rains of around 130 mm (5.1 inches) led to widespread flooding across several districts in northern Karnataka, including Ballari and Bengaluru, causing significant damage to homes, crops, and infrastructure.
• The intense rainfall was attributed to cyclonic activity in the Bay of Bengal, which resulted in deadly lightning strikes, house collapses, and flash floods.
• The flooding claimed three lives, left two injured, and washed away 9 000 ha (22 240 acres) of crops, including paddy, banana, and chilli, impacting local agriculture and livelihoods.
• Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast more heavy rainfall and issued orange alerts for several regions in the coming days.

Heavy rains lashed northern Karnataka on Saturday night, resulting in severe flooding across the region. The downpour, attributed to cyclonic activity in the Bay of Bengal, saw around 130 mm (5.1 inches) of rain fall overnight, claiming three lives, injuring two, and damaging 150 houses. In Vijayanagara district, two people were killed by lightning strikes on Sunday, October 6, while in Davanagere district, a man died when his house collapsed. His son and daughter-in-law were also injured in the incident and were transported to the hospital. The Ballari district and surrounding areas experienced intense flooding due to the heavy rainfall. Raichur, Koppal, Yadgir, and Kalaburagi districts also reported significant rainfall. In the Sandur mining area, around 55 trucks were stranded in the floodwaters. Local residents rescued 25 drivers from their vehicles. Authorities reported that 9 000 ha (22 240 acres) of paddy, banana, and chilli crops were destroyed by the floods. Floodwaters also submerged roads in Naragund and Gadag districts after two hours of torrential rain on Saturday night. Homes in the area were flooded as rainwater mixed with sewage water. Bengaluru was similarly affected by the heavy rains from Saturday night into Sunday morning. Several neighbourhoods were inundated, and around 15 trees were uprooted. Significant damage was reported, particularly in the southern, western, and Yelahanka zones of the city. In Yelahanka, a 15.2 m (50 feet) high compound wall near Yelahanka Lake collapsed due to the intense rainfall. The collapse caused knee-deep flooding at the Kendriya Vihar Apartment Complex, submerging several vehicles and leading to power outages for residents. Authorities responded quickly, with personnel from Bruhat Bengaluru Mahanagara Palike (BBMP), the National Disaster Relief Force (NDRF), and the Fire Department deployed to manage the situation. Emergency rations were distributed to affected residents. In the Madhuvana and Vijaynagar areas, at least 10 houses were flooded after a sewage line overflowed. The Palike Bazaar area saw severe inundation. In the Binnypet area, a 2.1 m (7 feet) high compound wall collapsed onto several two-wheelers, also bringing down an electric pole, which caused damage to a nearby house. Mudradi in Udupi district experienced flash floods after a cloudburst over Kabbinale Betta. The sudden flooding swept away several vehicles and submerged acres of paddy, rubber, areca, and coconut plantations.

Torrential rain causes massive flooding in Mecca, Saudi Arabia - Heavy rainfall and thunderstorms caused severe flooding in the Mecca (Makkah) region, Saudi Arabia on Thursday, October 10, 2024. Warnings were issued for 8 regions including Madinah, Makkah, and Jazan. Intense downpours, accompanied by thunderstorms, caused severe flooding in Makkah Al-Mukarramah, Saudi Arabia, on Thursday. Regions including the Eastern Province, Madinah, Asir, Jazan, Al-Baha, Hail, and Tabuk were also affected. Parts of Madinah and Jazan were also affected by torrents, thunderbolts, high-speed winds, and dust. Several warnings were issued through an early warning system by local authorities across the affected regions. Local authorities issued a warning for the Eastern Province due to low visibility, light rains, and winds. This warning was in effect until Thursday evening. Visuals shared on social media showed submerged streets in the Makkah region, with vehicles wading through floodwaters high enough to submerge almost half of a car.

Dust storm triggers massive 60-car pileup on US 95 near Genesee, Idaho - A severe dust storm caused a 60-car pileup on US Highway 95 near Genesee, Idaho, on October 4, 2024, injuring several people. Authorities reported no fatalities, but the highway was closed for hours as crews cleared the wreckage and investigated the crash. Dust storm triggers massive 60-car pileup on US 95 near Genesee, Idaho. Image credit: Idaho Department of Environmental Quality A severe dust storm led to a significant traffic incident on US Highway 95 near Genesee, Idaho, resulting in a 60-car pileup. Several individuals sustained injuries, though no fatalities have been reported. The incident occurred on Friday afternoon, October 4, causing extensive road closures and significant delays. The Idaho State Police reported that the dust storm severely reduced visibility, contributing to the chain-reaction crash. The highway was closed for several hours as crews worked to restore normal traffic flow. “Multiple off-duty, good Samaritan medical personnel along with Genesse Ambulance were able to assess injuries and three individuals were transported to the local hospital by ground ambulance,” the Idaho State Police said in a statement, adding that the use of seatbelts was able to reduce the number and severity of injuries in the various crashes. 9 vehicles were determined to have crashed at the scene with 3 distinctive chain reactions of 3 vehicles apiece. A far majority of motorists involved were able to avoid striking other vehicles during the pileup. The Idaho State Police is reminding the motoring public that low visibility and hazardous weather conditions require slower speeds and caution when driving on Idaho roadways.

Rio Negro falls to record levels amid the Amazon drought - Ongoing drought and reduced rainfall in the Amazon Basin caused the water levels of the Rio Negro River to fall to 12.66 m (41.5 feet) on Friday, October 4, 2024, the lowest on record since 1902 when records began. The Amazon River basin has been experiencing severe drought and wildfires this year. The river basin experienced a record drought in September after several riverbeds fell significantly below their average water levels. The continuing drought conditions and reduced rainfall caused the Rio Negro River to fall to a depth of 12.66 m (41.5 feet) on Friday, the lowest on record since measurements began in 1902. Researchers in the port city of Manaus, Brazil believe water levels could fall further through October as the dry spell continues. “This is now the most severe drought in over 120 years of measurement at the Port of Manaus,” said Valmir Mendonca, the port’s head of operations. The Rio Negro is a major tributary of the Amazon River. It drains more than 10 percent of the water in the Amazon River basin and is the sixth-largest river in the world by average discharge. Some experts told local media that the Rio Negro could fall below 12 m (39.4 feet) before the end of October. Friday’s measurements surpassed the record low set last year, later in the dry season.

Over 200 feared buried in large landslide in Manacapuru, Brazil - (video) A large landslide in Brazil’s Terra Preta in Mancapur is feared to have buried over 200 people on October 7, 2024. A landslide occurred at the port area of Manacapuru, Brazil’s Amazonas state on October 7, 2024. The Military Firefighters Corps of the state of Rio de Janeiro reported that land supporting part of the port on the Amazon River’s banks slid for reasons yet unknown. Sorry, the video player failed to load.(Error Code: 101102) More than 200 people who were loading and unloading goods at the time of the incident are feared to have been buried in the landslide. Initial reports confirmed that a boat carrying an entire family was also buried in the landslide. Search and rescue operations are ongoing, led by Civil Defense teams and the Military Firefighters Corps. Reports suggest that riverbank erosion, exacerbated by the ongoing drought in the Amazon Basin, may have contributed to the landslide.

High energy explosion followed by lava flow at Stromboli volcano, Italy - The WatchersThe INGV-Etneo Observatory reported a sequence of volcanic events on Stromboli within an hour on Sunday, October 6, 2024, starting with a high-energy explosion from the North crater at 00:17 UTC. This eruption triggered a lava flow along the Sciara del Fuoco, with ongoing spattering activity observed as of Sunday morning. Stromboli, an active volcano located in the Aeolian Islands of Italy, experienced a series of eruptions early on October 6. The INGV-Ethneo Observatory reported that the volcanic activity began at 00:17 UTC with a major explosion originating from the North crater. Surveillance cameras captured the event, showing material falling along the Sciara del Fuoco, a steep slope formed by previous lava flows. The explosion triggered a significant seismic signal that was recorded across all monitoring stations on the island. According to the observatory, the explosion was part of a sequence of events that caused high-energy seismic activity. The average magnitude of the tremor initially surged to a very high level before gradually decreasing to a high level after the event. In terms of ground deformations, no significant changes were observed in the GNSS network, though the clinometric station (TDF) was being upgraded at the time of the eruption. Approximately an hour later, the observatory reported further volcanic activity. A spattering event, which began in the North crater following the major explosion, intensified and evolved into sustained lava flow along the Sciara del Fuoco.

Major X2.1 solar flare erupts from AR 3842 - The Watchers A major solar flare measuring X2.1 erupted from Active Region 3842 at 19:13 UTC on October 7, 2024. The event started at 19:02 and ended at 19:31 UTC. The event comes just 4 days after X9.0 — thus far the strongest solar flare of Solar Cycle 25, also from Region 3842. The event was associated with a 10cm Radio Burst (tenflare) lasting 4 minutes and with a peak flux of 640 sfu. A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications. At the time of press, there were no radio signatures that would suggest a coronal mass ejection (CME) was produced. Even if it was, the location of this region now close to the west limb does not favor Earth-directed CMEs. Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over the Pacific Ocean at the time of the flare. Solar activity is expected to be moderate with 75% for M-class solar flares and 30% for isolated X-class flares through October 9. The CME produced by the X9.0 solar flare on October 3 impacted Earth on October 6, producing G2 – Moderate geomagnetic storming. The auroras spread across more than 20 U.S. states, including Alaska, Maine, Vermont, Minnesota, North Dakota, Washington, Wisconsin, New York, South Dakota, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Illinois, Virginia, Kentucky, Missouri, Kansas, North Carolina, Mississippi, California. The storm turned out to be significantly weaker than expected, and according to Dr. Tony Phillips of SpaceWeather it was ‘rescued by the autumnal Russell-McPherron effect.’ At this time of year, even weak CMEs can cause a geomagnetic storm.

G3 - Strong geomagnetic storm following CME impact produced by X9.0 solar flare - Geomagnetic field levels started increasing following the impact of CME produced by the X9.0 solar flare and reached a K-index of 5 (G1 – Minor geomagnetic storm) threshold at 22:41 UTC on October 6. This is thus far the strongest solar flare of Solar Cycle 25.G2 – Moderate geomagnetic storm (K-index of 6) threshold was reached at 13:34 UTC on October 7, subsiding in periods back to G1 before increasing again to G2 and reaching G3 – Strong levels at 02:42 UTC on October 8. G3 – Strong geomagnetic storms primarily affect regions poleward at a geomagnetic latitude of 50 degrees. Geomagnetic storms of this intensity can cause power system voltage irregularities, with the possibility of triggering false alarms on protection devices. Spacecraft systems can experience surface charging, while increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems are possible. Navigation systems, including GPS, may face intermittent issues such as loss of lock and increased range errors. High-frequency radio communication can become unreliable and the aurora is often visible as far south as Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Oregon.Even at G2 levels, aurora spread across more than 20 U.S. states on October 7, including Alaska, Maine, Vermont, Minnesota, North Dakota, Washington, Wisconsin, New York, South Dakota, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Illinois, Virginia, Kentucky, Missouri, Kansas, North Carolina, Mississippi, and California.A rare display of red auroral pillars was visible low on the northern horizon from the Texas South Plains on the night of October 8. The phenomenon was captured by the National Weather Service in Lubbock around 21:30 LT approximately 24 km (15 miles) northwest of Lubbock. Here’s a selection of sightings from across the U.S., Canada, and Europe, along with a notable one captured by Matthew Dominick aboard the Dragon Endeavor, which was docked to the front of the International Space Station on October 7, 2024.’

Major X1.8 solar flare produces Earth-directed CME, impact expected late October 10 – (video) A major solar flare measuring X1.8 erupted from Earth-facing Active Region 3848 at 01:56 UTC on October 9, 2024. The event started at 01:25 and ended at 02:43 UTC. A fast-moving full halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was produced during the event, with the impact expected from late October 10 to early on October 11. Solar proton counts started sharply rising at 02:40 UTC and reached S2 – Moderate solar radiation storm levels at 07:30 UTC. A significant, long-duration solar flare classified as X1.8 erupted from geoeffective Active Region 3848 at 01:56 UTC on October 9, 2024. The flare produced a fast-moving coronal mass ejection (CME), expected to impact Earth between late October 10 and early October 11. X-class flares are the most intense category, with X1.8 indicating a strong burst of radiation. A Type II Radio Emission, with an estimated velocity of 5 176 km/s was detected at 01:44 UTC. Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the Sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event. A Type IV Radio Emission was detected at 01:43 UTC. Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the Sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms. Additionally, a 10cm Radio Burst (tenflare) lasting 174 minutes and with a peak flux of 2 700 sfu was detected from 01:36 to 04:0 UTC. A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications. The CME is expected to impact Earth between late October 10 and early October 11. Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over the Pacific Ocean at the time of the flare.

X1.4 solar flare erupts on the Sun’s west limb — second X-class flare of the day - An impulsive solar flare measuring X1.4 erupted on the Sun’s west limb at 15:47 UTC on October 9, 2024. The event started at 15:44 and ended at 15:53 UTC. x1.4 solar flare october 9 2024 goes-16 131a f X1.4 solar flare on October 9, 2024. Image credit: NOAA/GOES-16, The Watchers A major, impulsive solar flare measuring X1.4 erupted at 15:47 UTC on October 9, from a departing region located on the west limb — most likely AR 3842 — the source of X9.0 solar flare on October 3, thus far the strongest solar flare of Solar Cycle 25, and X2.1 and X1.0 on October 7. The event was associated with a Type IV Radio Emission, typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar radiation storms. In addition, a 10cm Radio Burst lasting 3 minutes and with a peak flux of 2 300 sfu was registered from 15:54 to 15:47 UTC. A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications. Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over South America at the time of the flare. While the location of this region doesn’t favor Earth-directed CME, this event has the potential to furtherenhance the solar radiation storm currently in progress.

Strong solar radiation in progress, severe geomagnetic storm watch in effect - A strong solar radiation storm is currently in progress as a result of a major X1.8 solar flare at 01:56 UTC on October 9, 2024. A strong solar radiation storm is currently underway following a major X1.8 solar flare at 01:56 UTC on October 9, 2024. Proton flux counts began rapidly increasing after the flare, reaching the S1 – Minor solar radiation storm threshold at around 04:40 UTC. Levels reached S2 – Moderate by 07:30 UTC and S3 – Strong by 12:30 UTC. Potential impacts include increased radiation exposure for passengers and crew on high-altitude, high-latitude flights, as well as elevated radiation risks for astronauts conducting extra-vehicular activities. Spacecraft may experience single-event upsets to satellite operations, noise in imaging systems, and slight reductions in solar panel efficiency. Additionally, polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation could be degraded or experience episodic blackouts. The storm was produced by a significant, long-duration solar flare classified as X1.8 that erupted from geoeffective Active Region 3848 at 01:56 UTC on October 9. The flare produced a fast-moving coronal mass ejection (CME), expected to impact Earth between late October 10 and early October 11. As a result, a G4 – Severe or Greater Geomagnetic Storm Watch is in effect for October 10 and 11. Potential impacts of G4 – Severe geomagnetic storms are primarily expected poleward of 45 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Power grids may experience widespread voltage control issues, and protective systems could mistakenly trip key assets, while induced pipeline currents may intensify. Spacecraft systems could face surface charging, increased drag on low Earth orbit satellites, and issues with tracking and orientation. Satellite navigation (GPS) may be degraded or inoperable for hours, and HF (high frequency) radio propagation could be sporadic or blacked out. Auroras may be visible as far south as Alabama and northern California.

Fast CME produced by X1.8 solar flare impacts Earth, producing G4 - Severe geomagnetic storm - Coronal mass ejection (CME) produced by X1.8 solar flare on October 9, 2024, impacted Earth at 15:15 UTC on October 10, at nearly 2.4 million km/h (1.5 million miles per hour), triggering G4 – Severe geomagnetic storm. 23z aurora forecast october 10 2024 f Aurora forecast for 16:30 UTC on October 10, 2024. Image credit: TW Coronal mass ejection (CME) produced by X1.8 solar flare on October 9 impacted Earth at 15:15 UTC on October 10, triggering a G4 – Severe geomagnetic storm. This is the 4th G4 storm since May 11, 2024, when G5 conditions were observed. The previous G4 storms were observed on September 17, August 12 and June 28. According to the SWPC, the storm could affect ongoing recovery efforts for hurricanes Helene and Milton in key areas. Communication systems reliant on low-Earth orbit satellites and high-frequency communications may experience disruptions. Power grids, already stressed from the hurricanes, could face additional strain, while GPS services, crucial for disaster relief operations, may be degraded. The Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) has already informed FEMA and state agencies involved in recovery efforts of the potential impacts. There is still a possibility that we could reach G5 – Extreme) levels, although the likelihood of this is decreasing, SWPC said at 21:40 UTC. Potential impacts of G4 – Severe geomagnetic storms are primarily expected poleward of 45 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Power grids may experience widespread voltage control issues, and protective systems could mistakenly trip key assets, while induced pipeline currents may intensify. Spacecraft systems could face surface charging, increased drag on low Earth orbit satellites, and issues with tracking and orientation. Satellite navigation (GPS) may be degraded or inoperable for hours, and HF (high frequency) radio propagation could be sporadic or blacked out. Auroras may be visible as far south as Alabama and northern California. Geomagnetic activity can vary considerably during storm progression with intermittent periods of escalation or weakening as the major disturbance in the solar wind continues.

Arctic ozone reaches record high in positive step for climate -Earth's ozone layer holes over polar regions, where the stratospheric ozone level is significantly depleted, have been a prevalent feature of climate change news in recent decades. Anthropogenic-sourced chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are the primary cause, released from household items such as coolants in fridges, air conditioners and spray cans. Restricting their use has been and remains paramount to ozone hole recovery as they have multi-decadal lifetimes in the atmosphere. Policies to address ozone depletion, such as the 1987 international agreement of the Montreal Protocol, aim to stop the production and consumption of ozone-depleting substances in order to heal these ozone holes by 2045 and 2066 over the Arctic and Antarctic respectively. As such, since early 2000, levels of stratospheric ozone-depleting inorganic chlorine and bromine in the Arctic have declined, albeit rather slowly. Amidst this bleak forecast, research published in Geophysical Research Letters has hinted at a brighter future to come. Dr. Paul Newman, Chief Scientist for Earth Scientists at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, and colleagues identified March 2024 as a record high month for Arctic ozone since the 1970s, following a period of overall increase through winter 2023 to 2024. Above-average ozone levels continued to persist through September 2024. This is significant as, previously, spring has been associated with ozone depletion when high CFC levels were coincident with large, cold, rotating low-pressure meteorological systems, known as polar vortices.The research team highlight the significance of this research as preliminary evidence that CFC levels are now declining, in order to allow the ozone layer to begin its lengthy recovery. Dr. Newman said, "Ozone is the Earth's natural sunscreen. Increased ozone is a positive story, since it's good for the environment and encouraging news that the global Montreal Protocol agreement is producing positive results." The March 2024 ozone average peaked at 477 Dobson units (DU), which is 6 DU higher than the previous record in March 1979 and 60 DU higher than the average for the study period (1979 to 2023). Daily record levels for the Arctic occurred for approximately half of the month, with March 20th seeing the maximum of 499 DU. They found that the lowermost portion of the stratosphere (10–20 km above Earth's surface) experienced record high temperatures for 23 days of the month, coincident with these elevated ozone levels due to warmer weather systems moving up from the underlying troposphere into the stratosphere. This contrasts with known extreme ozone depletion events in 1997, 2011 and 2020, which occurred during periods of prolonged polar vortices. The causal mechanism for these anomalous temperature and ozone levels in March 2024 is attributed to enhanced winter eddy heat fluxes from atmospheric Rossby waves. These waves move into the stratosphere and cause a downward motion in the polar regions, leading to warmer polar temperatures. "Arctic ozone is controlled by direct depletion of ozone by chlorine and bromine compounds and ozone transport," Dr. Newman explains. "The stronger than normal transport seems to be caused by a random weather year with significant propagation of Rossby waves into the stratosphere. It is likely that the declining levels of oxygen depleting substances and rising levels of carbon dioxide helped further elevate Arctic ozone to a record level." Given that carbon dioxide levels are still projected to increase in the years to come, Dr. Newman states that is "highly likely" that more of these record ozone events will continue to occur."Climate change is believed to be impacting the strength and stability of the stratospheric polar vortex. For example, changes in surface temperature and pressure that result from sea ice loss can increase generation of Rossby waves, resulting in a weaker and unstable polar vortex. "In addition, global ozone is expected to slowly increase because of the Montreal Protocol. The combination of these two factors will create favorable conditions for higher polar ozone values."

Supreme Court declines to block Biden rules on planet-warming methane, toxic mercury -The Supreme Court on Friday left in place Biden administration regulations aimed at curbing oil and gas facility emissions of methane, a major contributor to climate change. In a separate action, the court also rejected a bid to block a separate regulation aimed at curbing emissions of mercury and other toxic pollutants from coal-fired power plants. In both cases, the court rejected emergency applications without comment, with no noted dissents. Litigation will continue in lower courts. A separate emergency application seeking to block Biden regulations concerning greenhouse gas emissions from coal- and gas-fired power plants remains pending. The court's decision in the methane case means that an Environmental Protection Agency regulation that was finalized in March and is intended to cut methane emissions by up to 80 percent over the next 14 years will remain in effect. Methane is a greenhouse gas that is 80 times more potent than carbon dioxide at trapping heat once emitted into the atmosphere, hence contributing to global warming. The regulation has been challenged by Republican states led by Oklahoma and various oil and gas industry groups. The challengers portray the regulation in stark terms, with industry groups calling it an "authoritarian national command from the EPA" in their court filing. They say the regulation goes further than is allowed under the Clean Air Act, which gives states a role in implementing emissions reduction programs. The states similarly argued in court papers that the administration is using provisions of the Clean Air Act that were never envisioned to address climate change to "shut down power plants in favor of other sources of generation." Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar, representing the Biden administration, dismissed those concerns, saying in her own filing that the agency has not trampled over the states in issuing its emissions guidelines. "Like all EPA emission guidelines under that provision, those guidelines allow the states to decide what particular regulations to adopt," she wrote. New presumptive standards issued by the EPA "simply give states a model that they may rely on if they choose," she added. The mercury regulation has less sweeping impacts, according to the EPA. In that case, the court rejected an emergency request filed by conservative states and industry groups that want to block the EPA regulation issued this year. Under the Clean Air Act provision in question, the EPA is required to curb hazardous pollutants while taking costs into account. The regulation tightens existing regulations on mercury and other metals, such as arsenic and chromium.

Zillow adds climate risk data to home listings - Insured losses for Hurricane Helene are now estimated at over $6 billion, but the uninsured losses are far higher. That's because the vast majority of homes impacted by the storm, especially in hard-hit North Carolina, did not have flood insurance. New risk-assessment technology is designed to help change that for the future. Most homeowners in North Carolina do not have flood insurance, because they are not in flood zones designated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Government-backed mortgages require flood insurance in those designated areas. Just 4% of North Carolina homes are in a FEMA flood zone. But climate risk firm First Street, which incorporates the effects of climate change into its property risk scores, shows nearly 12% of homes in the state at flood risk. First Street just launched a suite of climate risk data for every for-sale property listed on Zillow. "Climate risks are now a critical factor in home buying decisions," said Skylar Olsen, chief economist at Zillow, in a release. "We're providing buyers and sellers with clear, property-specific climate data so they can make informed decisions. As concerns about flooding, extreme temperatures, and wildfires grow, this tool also helps agents inform their clients in discussing climate risk, insurance, and long-term affordability." Each for-sale listing on Zillow now displays First Street risk scores for flood, fire, wind, air and heat. They also show those same risk percentages estimated 15 years and 30 years into the future — the standard lengths for fixed-rate mortgages. On properties with some risk now, it often shows that risk rise over time, as First Street incorporates the effects of climate change. This is especially true for the flood risk, because climate change is already intensifying the severity of rainfall, even in minor storms. The data also includes a recommendation as to whether the homeowner should have flood insurance and a link to the First Street site, which will help estimate insurance costs. "A lot of people think that they are safe from flood if they're not in a FEMA flood zone, and that's decidedly not true. Heavy rainfall can affect many, many people across the country, and there's no indication from the FEMA flood zone designation that that is a risk for you," said Ed Kearns, chief science officer at First Street. "We've created these new flood maps that do bring that into account, that will allow consumers to make that informed choice about whether they need flood insurance." More than 80% of buyers now consider climate risk when purchasing a home, according to a survey by Zillow. Respondents ranked flood risk as their highest concern, followed by fire. A Zillow analysis of August listings found that more homes nationwide had a major climate risk than did those listed for sale five years ago. That was true across all five climate risk categories, the analysis found. For new listings in August, 16.7% are at major wildfire risk and 12.8% show a major risk of flooding, according to Zillow and First Street data. As more and more consumers consult these climate scores in their purchase decisions, the effect on home values will surely increase. The cost of insurance is already factored into home prices, and as both the cost and necessity of insurance rise, home values in the most affected areas will fall. "I think that's going to be the most direct impact of having scores on homes that quantify risk is that there may be some direct impact on real estate values, but a lot of that is going to go through the amount of insurance necessary to cover that home," Kearns added.

ADM’s CCS project can’t seal the deal -- Last week, grain processing giant ADM announced it was suspending CO2 injections at its Illinois carbon capture and storage (CCS) facility after detecting a potential well leak — the second this year — leaving the future of this underground climate solution up in the air. In the first major US initiative of its kind, ADM (Archer-Daniels-Midland) launched CCS operations at its Decatur, IL ethanol plant in 2021. This involves capturing CO2 emissions from the plant, purifying and compressing the CO2 into a liquid-like form, then transporting it into CO2 injection wells to be injected into sealed-off geologic formations ~5,550 feet underground for permanent sequestration. Next to these injection wells, which require federal permits known as Class VIs, are two deep monitoring wells that track the movement of the injected CO2 plume, the integrity of the injection well, and groundwater quality. However, at the end of last year, ADM said it detected "some corrosion" in a section of one monitoring well, and subsequently plugged the well and no longer uses it. This March, the company reportedly discovered possible leakage in the rock formation above the CO2 injection well, at a depth of 5,000 feet — just above the zone where ADM is permitted to inject (5,553-7,043 feet underground). Tests confirmed the presence of CO2. By August, the EPA issued a violation notice alleging that the company hadn’t complied with its federal permit. And at the end of September, while investigating, ADM said it discovered more potential movement of fluid "between different formations" 5,000 feet underground, prompting worries that the leak violates the Clean Drinking Water Act (although drinking water wells are only 110 feet deep).This landmark ADM CCS project was intended to prove out CCS as a climate solution in the US, and already faced strong oversight from the EPA to receive the first Class VI permit granted. The EPA must approve each well and rigorously test to ensure that CO2 can be safely sequestered there, and the bureaucratic process typically takes 18 months. (Only recently did the EPA grant some states primacy, or the ability to permit wells within their own jurisdiction themselves.) There’s currently an extreme backlog for these permits, with only 15 being approved, only 4 of which are from the EPA rather than through primacy.Given that it was the first project to receive this type of permit, the project plans were supposed to be airtight (figuratively and literally). These failures raise new concerns — from the local community, the climate community, and the federal government. Proper CO2 storage remains crucial to the success of these projects. This issue may lead to stricter regulations and longer approval timelines, creating an even greater bottleneck for future CCS projects. Any postponement can lead to significant cost overruns and erode confidence in CCS projects, both from investors and stakeholders. Ensuring reliable and timely permitting is essential to maintaining the financial viability and momentum of the sector within the US (and decarbonizing heavy industry at large). If it becomes harder to secure storage permits, developers may choose to cancel US-based projects. Key takeaways:

• Permitting isn’t just about getting the permit. While receiving approval for permits can be an arduous process, keeping the license to operate (both legally and socially) requires meticulous continued oversight. Because CCS is still a relatively emerging technology, it faces these types of challenges when it comes to scalability and commercial viability. And relying on it to decarbonize can be tricky: While ADM is ceasing injections for now, operations at its CO2-emitting plant aren't stopping — and for ADM, which has 2035 decarbonization goals, that means more unaccounted-for emissions.
• FOAKs face extra regulatory scrutiny. Some states have recently been granted "primacy" over Class VI permits, allowing them to issue permits independently from the EPA. However, this incident may prompt the EPA to reconsider these delegations given concerns it does not have proper resources to monitor projects. Meeting global decarbonization goals will require unlocking greater CCS capacity than currently exists — and ensuring it is done safely.
• Outside the US, CCS is pushing ahead. The UK government announced a pledge of up to $28bn over 25 years to support the country's first CCS large-scale commercial projects, also last week. As part of the UK’s net-zero by 2050 goal, it aims to develop two offshore storage sites and associated pipelines, capable of storing over 8.5m tonnes of CO2 annually, as well as to enable CCS at three industrial sites producing hydrogen, power, and energy from waste.

Carbon storage projects hit a hurdle: Corroding steel - EPA has concluded that dozens of planned projects contain dangerous design flaws — a discovery that may slow the rollout of a technology central to the Biden administration’s plans to confront climate change. A leak at the country’s first commercial carbon dioxide sequestration project was likely caused by corrosion of the steel used in the well, a finding by federal regulators that poses a significant risk to dozens other projects around the country planning to use the same type of metal. The steel, 13 Chrome, has been used for decades in oil and gas wells, but it appears to be vulnerable to corrosion when exposed to the liquids in carbon sequestration wells. Using an alternate material would likely be more expensive and could delay many of the projects that the agricultural and energy industries are hoping to deploy to access the federal tax credits and address the pollution driving climate change. Carbon sequestration technology, which typically injects climate-warming carbon dioxide into deep underground saline aquifers, is a nascent technique that the Biden administration has hoped will offer polluting industries a viable path to reducing their impact on the climate. The 2022 Inflation Reduction Act includes billions of dollars in incentives for carbon capture and sequestration as part of its effort to cut greenhouse gas emissions sharply. Both EPA and the well’s owner, Archer-Daniels-Midland, have pointed to the corrosion of the 13 Chrome stainless steel used at the Decatur, Illinois, facility for a leak in a monitoring well that allowed liquid carbon dioxide to escape from the containment reservoir. The company reported a second leak on a separate monitoring well to EPA last week and is running additional tests to shed light on what might have caused it.

How personal care products affect indoor air quality -- The personal care products we use on a daily basis significantly affect indoor air quality, according to new research by a team at EPFL. When used indoors, these products release a cocktail of more than 200 volatile organic compounds (VOCs) into the air, and when those VOCs come into contact with ozone, the chemical reactions that follow can produce new compounds and particles that may penetrate deep into our lungs. Scientists don't yet know how inhaling these particles on a daily basis affects our respiratory health. The EPFL team's findings have been published in Environmental Science & Technology Letters. It all began when Dusan Licina, a tenure-track assistant professor at EPFL, and his group drew up an apparently unremarkable shopping list: roll-on deodorant, spray deodorant, hand lotion, perfume and dry shampoo hair spray—all produced by leading brands and available in major stores across Europe and elsewhere. Licina leads EPFL's Human-Oriented Built Environment Lab (HOBEL) at the Smart Living Lab in Fribourg, home to environmental chambers—unique experimental facilities resembling real indoor spaces that enable precise control and monitoring of indoor air quality. The research project, led by Licina's former postdoc Tianren Wu, worked in association with researchers from Germany and Sweden to mimic the use of these personal care products in an indoor environment. In one test, the researchers applied the products under typical conditions, while the air quality was carefully monitored. In another test, they did the same thing but also injected ozone, a reactive outdoor gas that occurs in European latitudes during the summer months. Ozone can infiltrate homes through open windows, but can also come from indoors, for example, when using laser printers and 3D printers. Around five sophisticated measuring instruments were deployed to quantify and identify the gases and particles present in the chamber. It took the scientists two years to process all the collected data. In the first case without ozone, over 200 VOCs were emitted from the personal care products, which gradually dissipated with ventilation. The most abundant molecules they found were ethanol and monoterpenes, typically used in these products. However, when ozone was introduced into the chamber, not only new VOCs but also new particles were generated, particularly from perfume and sprays, exceeding concentrations found in heavily polluted urban areas such as downtown Zurich. "Some molecules 'nucleate'—in other words, they form new particles that can coagulate into larger ultrafine particles that can effectively deposit into our lungs," explains Licina. "In my opinion, we still don't fully understand the health effects of these pollutants, but they may be more harmful than we think, especially because they are applied close to our breathing zone. This is an area where new toxicological studies are needed."

Biden To Announce $2.6 Billion In Wisconsin For Replacing Lead Pipes -President Joe Biden will be in Wisconsin on Oct. 8 to announce a $2.6 billion investment to replace lead pipes, according to senior administration officials.The funding was allocated under the 2021 Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, which set aside $15 billion over five years for replacing lead pipes. The Clean Water State Revolving Fund under the bill gives an additional $11.7 billion that can be used toward this effort. While in Milwaukee, Biden will also announce a finalized Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) rule that requires water systems nationwide to replace lead service lines within a decade. The new standard for the action level—or how much water in a water system is contaminated—of pipes will be 10 parts per billion. The current standard is 15 parts per billion.Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), who is running for reelection, will not be with the president as he makes the announcement.“Senator Baldwin had a previously scheduled event at a family farm in Eau Claire to receive the American Farm Bureau Federation’s ‘Friend of Farm Bureau’ award recognizing her leadership fighting for America’s hardworking farmers, growers, and producers,” the senator’s communications director, Eli Rosen, told The Epoch Times.One senior administration official said Baldwin is “an amazing partner in this administration and leading the charge in the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law.”Under the EPA rule, at least 49 percent of the funding must be provided to disadvantaged communities as funds that do not need to be repaid. The rule updates what is called the Lead and Copper Rule, which was first enacted in 1991.“The EPA’s new lead rule will begin to reverse the massive public health disaster of lead-contaminated tap water that has affected generations of our children. Every person has a right to safe and affordable drinking water, no matter their race, income, or zip code,” said Manish Bapna, president and CEO of the Natural Resources Defense Council, in a statement obtained by The Epoch Times.

4 dead after house explosion in Ohio – YouTube (Youngstown)

New Complaint Alleges Negligence in Realty Tower Explosion – Youngstown Business Journal Daily– A Chase Bank employee has sued natural gas supplier Enbridge Inc. and 12 other entities stemming from the deadly explosion at Realty Tower in May.Toussaint Blake and his wife, Gabrielle, filed a complaint Oct. 3 alleging defendants breached their duty “by failing to use reasonable care to warn, inspect, advise, instruct, and communicate with the contractors working in Realty Tower basement,” regarding information about a pressurized natural gas pipe that workers cut into, causing the explosion.The lawsuit says Toussaint Blake suffered personal injuries, was required to seek medical care, suffered great pain of mind and body and experienced loss of wages because of the explosion. The lawsuit also cites “other injury, damage and loss, all of which will continue into the future,” and added that Blake’s “injuries are permanent.”In addition to Enbridge, the complaint names subsidiaries Enbridge Gas Distribution LLC, Enbridge Elephant Holdings LLC, Enbridge Alternative Fuel LLC, Enbridge Pipelines Inc., Enbridge Genoa Holdings LLC, Enbridge U.S. Inc. and Enbridge EOG Holdings LLC.

The Secret Playbook Behind Effort to Kill Solar in an Ohio County — ProPublica -Report Highlights

• Intense Debate Over Solar: A large solar farm proposed in Knox County, Ohio, has drawn about 4,000 public comments — more than any other solar project in the state.
• Newspaper Misinformation: After the local paper was sold to Metric Media, part of a “pink slime” network, the Mount Vernon News published one-sided coverage and dubious claims about solar power.
• Fossil Fuel Influence: Opposition to solar was stoked by a group whose major donor — a retired gas-industry executive — also leads a pro-gas dark-money organization.

Word tends to spread fast in rural Knox County, Ohio. But misinformation has spread faster.The first article in the Mount Vernon News last fall about a planned solar farm simply noted that residents were “expressing their concern.” But soon the county’s only newspaper was packed with stories about solar energy that almost uniformly criticized the project and quoted its opponents.Then a new “grassroots” organization materialized and invited locals to an elaborate event billed as a town hall, with a keynote speaker who denied that humans cause climate change.Someone sent text messages to residents urging them to “stop the solar invasion” and elect two county commission candidates who opposed the solar farm. And one day this past March, residents received an unfamiliar newspaper that contained only articles attacking Frasier Solar, a large project that would replace hundreds of acres of corn and soybeans with the equivalent of 630 football fields of solar panels.To many in the deep-red central Ohio community, it seemed that solar had become the focus of news and politics. They were right. Fossil fuel interests were secretly working to shape the conversation in Knox County.Each cog in the anti-solar machine — the opposition group, the texts, the newspaper, the energy publication — was linked to the others through finances and overlapping agendas, an investigation by Floodlight, ProPublica and The Tow Center for Digital Journalism found.The campaign against solar power benefited from a confluence of two powerful forces funded by oil and gas interests. A former executive at Ariel Corporation, the county’s largest employer and one of the world’s biggest manufacturers of methane gas compressors, was working behind the scenes. And helping in a more public way is the Mount Vernon News, a newspaper now in the hands of Metric Media, which operates websites that reportedly engage in pay-to-play coverage.Ariel and the former executive did not respond to requests for comment. Metric Media’s leader did not answer questions for this story; he has previously denied that his news outlets are partisan.Across the country, the oil and gas industry and power companies have exploited a struggling news industry and a fraught political process to fight the transition to clean energy and maximize profits, Floodlight and its partners have reported. In Florida, two power companies paid a consulting firm to hire newspapers to attack a pro-solar politician. In Alabama, the state’s largest monopoly electric companypurchased a historic Black newspaper, then didn’t write about soaring power bills. In California, Chevron launched its own newsroom when other papers shuttered; it doesn’t cover itself critically.In Mount Vernon, a city of 17,000 where the local university named its new sports complex CH4 after the chemical formula for methane, a variety of tactics have been deployed simultaneously, creating an anti-solar echo chamber.

Ohio high court races will decide future of state’s energy transition and utility fairness -This fall’s election for three seats on the Supreme Court of Ohio is expected to play a pivotal role in deciding the state’s direction on renewable energy, utility accountability and other energy issues.In addition to deciding appeals from lower courts dealing with energy and other topics, the seven-member Supreme Court of Ohio hears all challenges to cases from the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio and Ohio Power Siting Board. The commission broadly decides what utilities can do and how much they can charge ratepayers, while the siting board approves where energy generation and other infrastructure get built.Judicial candidates do not campaign on issues, so voters won’t have a full picture of how they are likely to rule on energy-related cases. However, endorsements, campaign contributions, and a handful of decisions by incumbents offer some clues. The Ohio Environmental Council Action Fund has endorsed all three Democratic candidates — Michael Donnelly, Melody Stewart, and Lisa Forbes. Donnelly and Stewart are incumbents seeking another six-year term. Forbes is an appellate judge in Cuyahoga County, which includes much of greater Cleveland.Meanwhile, the Ohio Oil and Gas Association and NiSourcehave given money to the campaigns of all three Republicans —Joseph Deters, Dan Hawkins, and Megan Shanahan. American Electric Power also gave money for Shanahan’s and Deters’ campaigns, data compiled by Open Secrets show. Deters was appointed by Gov. Mike DeWine last year to fill a partial term and is challenging Stewart for a full term. Hawkins and Shanahan are trial court judges in Franklin and Hamilton Counties, respectively. Ideally, party jurisdiction should not matter when candidates run for judicial office, said Heidi Gorovitz Robertson, a law professor at Cleveland State University. And some past energy rulings have been unanimous, including a 2021 ruling reversing a PUCO decision favoring a FirstEnergy affiliate while Sam Randazzo was chair. Starting in 2022, however, a new state law added party affiliations on fall election ballots for appellate court judges. Republicans hold a 4-3 majority on the Ohio Supreme Court, but that balance could flip depending on the outcome of this election. These are some of the energy issues the new court is likely to take up in the coming years:The Ohio Supreme Court still has to hear oral arguments and then decide solar farm siting cases for the Kingwood Solar andBirch Solar projects. Supporters of the projects argue the Ohio Power Siting Board acted unlawfully by treating the volume oflocal opposition as a deciding factor, rather than considering whether the substance of the objections outweighed other factors supporting the projects.“How the judges approach those questions is going to have a big impact on how renewable energy projects move forward in this state into the future,” said Chris Tavenor, an attorney speaking on behalf of the Ohio Environmental Council Action Fund.If the court sides with the siting board, it could give local opposition groups more sway in project siting than a 2021 law already grants to county governments. The result could further empower groups with links to fossil fuel interests, which sometimes stoke fears about renewable power to build opposition.The Kingwood case docket includes a friend-of-the-court brief filed on behalf of the Ohio Senate’s Republican majority, which was written as if it came from the whole Ohio Senate. Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost then moved to strike a separate brief filed on behalf of the seven Democrats in support of the project. An August 7 ruling denied Yost’s motion, but Deters dissented and would have denied the Democratic Caucus a say in the case. Another case, Moraine, presents ongoing questions about the timing of Supreme Court appeals. In Moraine, the court let an energy consulting company appeal several PUCO decisions about out-of-state renewable energy credits, in essence taking the commission to task for delays in deciding the company’s request for it to reconsider the rulings. The court’s August 27 procedural ruling said the PUCO can’t avoid its legal duty to rule on rehearing requests within 30 days by giving itself more time. Donnelly agreed with the ruling, Stewart dissented, and Deters didn’t take part.On one hand, the ruling should speed up renewable energy cases and maybe let developers get projects built more quickly. The ruling should also shorten how long consumers may have to pay contested charges that may ultimately be ruled unlawful.On the other hand, the ruling on timing represents a shift in the law. The Ohio Power Siting Board’s arguments in an earlierKingwood Solar appeal were very similar to those the PUCO made in the Moraine case. Yet in September 2023, six judges, including Donnelly, Stewart and Deters, agreed to dismiss the earlier Kingwood Solar case.On September 4, the PUCO held the new Moraine ruling means rehearing requests in other cases were denied by law and suggested the time for any appeal has passed. An October 2ruling repeated that position. “Instead of embracing the court’s pro-consumer ruling, the PUCO is undermining it,” said Ohio Consumers’ Counsel Maureen Willis.An AES Ohio case aims to block more than $150 million in refunds for allegedly unlawful “stability charges” that the PUCO said would be refundable “to the extent permitted by law.” The utility had gone back to the old subsidy rider after a later one was ruled unlawful. AES is also trying to use the August 27 Moraine ruling to say the Ohio Consumers’ Counsel missed its opportunity to appeal in any event. “AES’s latest move to avoid giving refunds to its 500,000 consumers should meet with sound defeat,” Willis said. “To protect consumers, the court should proceed to oral argument and allow justice to run its course.”The case will test the limits of language about refunds in a 2019 case, which held FirstEnergy’s so-called distribution modernization rider was unlawful. Donnelly’s opinion there said no refund was available for the money already paid, because the PUCO hadn’t made the rider refundable. Stewart was among the judges who agreed.A review of those rider charges is now among four FirstEnergy cases before the PUCO relating to the ongoing House Bill 6 corruption scandal. An evidentiary hearing on another of the cases dealing with corporate separation is set to start this month. The rider review and the other three cases will likely have hearings next year.Hundreds of millions of dollars are at stake. Charges in at least one case may be refundable through future bill adjustments. And even if consumers don’t get refunds in the other cases, FirstEnergy could be liable for penalties. So, some or all of the cases will likely end up at the Ohio Supreme Court. Deters recused himself from a case last year in which the court let the Ohio Attorney General’s office seize assets of former PUCO chair Sam Randazzo. Although the notice didn’t say why, Deters previously worked with lobbyist Matt Borges, who was convicted last year on federal criminal charges related to HB 6. Deters also has sat out several appeals from the PUCO, where his brother is a commissioner. Natural gas cases could also end up at the Ohio Supreme Court. One case challenges the constitutionality of a 2023 law that labeled natural gas “green energy” and jump started regulatory action to allow drilling and fracking under state parks and wildlife areas. Briefing ended last year. The trial court has not yet made its decision.Another case seeks to challenge instances in which the Ohio Oil and Gas Land Management Commission decided to solicit bids to lease areas under specific state parks and wildlife areasfor drilling and fracking. The trial court dismissed the appeals in February. The case is currently on appeal.Whether either case goes to the Ohio Supreme Court isn’t a foregone conclusion. Much will depend on how the courts rule, said Megan Hunter, an attorney with Earthjustice who represents several environmental groups in the cases.Common Cause encourages voters to Judge the Ads for court candidates with a skeptical eye. Watch for emotional framing. And question claims that may be inaccurate or taken out of context. Also note which groups pay for those ads, Common Cause advises: Question who is behind those groups and what they may stand to gain.Just as importantly, listen carefully to the candidates. “Focus on judges who are talking about principles of fairness and upholding our democracy as an important aspect of how our state works,” Tavenor said.“And really just pay attention to whether or not the judges are talking in partisan language versus nonpartisan language,” he added. “Our judges really shouldn’t be focused on the goals of political parties.”

Critical (Energy) Election for Ohio Supreme Court Judges This Nov. - Marcellus Drilling News - The stakes in this November’s election are incredibly high—for the country as a whole and for shale energy everywhere, including here in the Marcellus/Utica. Pennsylvania has been the focus this election season due to the presidential race. However, there is another M-U state, Ohio, where the outcome of a statewide race is also very important: that of the Ohio Supreme Court. There are seven judges on Ohio’s high court, with Republicans holding a slim 4-3 majority. There are three seats up for election. It is anticipated that the Ohio Supreme Court will handle an appeal by anti-fossil fuel zealots of the state’s law that allows drilling under (not on) state land and state parks. If the high court tips to the radical left, drilling under state land is in jeopardy.

Hold state legislative candidates accountable for voting to frack Ohio state parks – Save Ohio Parks - In December 2023, during the Christmas holiday lame duck session – with no public participation — the Ohio General Assembly stuffed a poultry bill with fossil fuel amendments and passed a law requiring fracking of Ohio’s state parks and public lands for gas and oil. HB 507 also falsely defined fracked gas as a “green energy,” despite climate scientists’ warnings that methane is 80 times more potent as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. Ohio public lands include state parks, forests, wilderness and wildlife areas, public colleges and universities, and Ohio Department of Transportation rights of way. Save Ohio Parks, the statewide, all-volunteer group concerned about the effects of fracking on human health, the environment, its fresh water, and planet warming, lists in a Candidate Accountability document the legislators who voted yes on H.B. 507 and are running for office in 2024 – 13 for Ohio Senate seats and 35 for Ohio House. Download the Save Ohio Parks Voting Guide for Park Lovers“Your vote can hold accountable the politicians running for re-election this year for industrializing pristine lands dedicated in 1949 for the enjoyment and leisure of all Ohioans,” said Cathy Cowan Becker, steering committee member at Save Ohio Parks. “These lands belong to the people of Ohio, not politicians.” Save Ohio Parks suggests voters should ask candidates in local political forums why they voted to frack our beloved state parks, wildlife areas, and other public lands, then consider voting for their opponents. “We need leaders who care about Ohioans’ quality of life and the future of our public lands for our children and grandchildren. We need lawmakers who serve the citizens of Ohio, not the oil and gas industry,” Cowan Becker said. Methane emissions from fracking operations and transportation are a top cause of planet- warming carbon pollution driving the climate crisis. Warmer oceans supercharge storms and make hurricanes like Helene and Milton more frequent and increasingly dangerous. “Climate change is real, and climate change is here,” Cowan Becker said. “We need to halve our greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, and simultaneously ramp up clean, renewable energy like wind, solar and geothermal. We’ve already breached 1.5 degrees Celsius warming, and climate scientists now say we’re on a trajectory to an unlivable planet if we do not transition our energy sources away from fossil fuels.” Cowan Becker said people need to educate themselves on fracking, methane emissions and climate change and urge lawmakers at local, state and federal levels to create energy policy that will allow the survival of the planet and humankind.

Utica Oil: EOG's New Downspacing Test Came on With 1,108 Bbl/d | Hart Energy --EOG Resources’ five-well, 700-ft downspacing Utica oil test came on with more than 72,000 bbl in its first 13 days online, according to new data from Ohio state files. The pad, Shadow CBR07 in Carroll County, is near EOG’s four-well, 1,000-ft spaced Timberwolf CBN16, which came online in August 2023. Shadow’s five wells’ total 72,022 bbl, averaging 1,108 bbl/d, according to Ohio Department of Natural Resources well files. At Timberwolf, the first three of its wells produced 137,632 bbl in their first 37 days, averaging 1,239 bbl/d each. A fourth well was turned into sales four months later for 658 bbl/d its first three months. Through June 30, Timberwolf has produced 919,551 bbl, averaging nearly 740 bbl/d per each of the four wells in their combined 1,243 days online. EOG is expected to provide an update on the Shadow pad and other Ohio results during its third-quarter earnings call in the coming weeks. The operator’s roughly 445,000 net acres, which are more than 90% HBP in the Utica’s volatile oil window, span a roughly 140-mile north-south stretch through eastern Ohio. EOG also owns the minerals under 135,000 of the net acres. Six of Ohio’s Top 10 oil wells in the second quarter were made by privately held Encino Energy, including its four Sproul TC RSH pad wells in Tuscarawas County, according to the Ohio DNR. In their first 80 days online, the wells surfaced 507,712 bbl, averaging about 1,587 bbl/d each. Separately, privately held Encino’s new four-well Sparkman GY CEN pad in Guernsey County made 383,773 bbl in its first 78 days, averaging 1,230 bbl/d each. In particular, Sparkman #1H surfaced 109,110 bbl, averaging 1,399 bbl/d, and the #205H made 105,349, averaging 1,351 bbl/d. Another new pad—the five-well Dutch Valley 7-5-1—produced 528,288 bbl, averaging 733 bbl/d since it was brought online in March. In Columbiana County, Encino’s four-well Lehwald CL BUT pad that came online at year-end 2023 has produced 455,729 bbl, averaging 633 bbl/d through June 30. In Harrison County, its four-well SHC Enterprises HN MON pad that came on in the fourth-quarter of 2023, produced 790,963 bbl through June 30, averaging 821 bbl/d per each of the well’s first eight months online. One of the wells in particular, the #4H, made 224,133 of the barrels, averaging 930 bbl/d in its first 241 days. Its first-two-months production averaged 1,498 bbl/d. In addition, Encino’s four-well Williams CR MON, which came online in October 2022 in Carroll County, made 1.57 MMbbl through this past June 30, averaging 616 bbl/d per well. Also privately held, Infinity Natural Resources brought on Ohio’s No. 3 oil producer of the second quarter: Casper #5HU in Carroll County with 1,361 bbl/d in its first 88 days online. Infinity turned to sales the state’s No. 9 well also: Casper #1HU with an 88-day average of 1,112 bbl/d. The four-well Casper pad’s two additional wells—Casper #3HU and #7HU—brought the pad’s first-88-day average to 1,085 bbl/d per well, according to the Ohio DNR. NGP- and Pearl Energy Investments-backed Infinity began leasing in Ohio in 2021 and has amassed 60,000 net Utica acres. It filed an S-1 with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Oct. 4 to go public. Another private producer—Ascent Resources, which has mostly focused on the Utica’s adjacent NGL and dry-gas windows in far eastern Ohio—took the No. 6 position with the Slabaugh W RCH GR #1H. The Guernsey County well produced 1,158 bbl/d in the quarter’s 91 days, according to the Ohio DNR well files. The #1H had already been online for 42 days, making 54,604 bbl in February and March. Its first-133-day output through June 30 was 159,980 bbl, averaging 1,203 bbl/d. It and the #3H and #5H in the three-well Slabaugh pad produced 414,711 bbl in their combined first 395 days online, averaging 1,050 bbl/d each. Also in Guernsey County, Ascent brought on its four-well Caston NE LND GR pad in the second quarter, producing 1,117 bbl/d per well in their first 70 days online. Nearby, Ascent turned into sales five new Donna wells—#1H, #3H, #5H, #7H and #9H—averaging 1,090 bbl/d each in their first 47 days online. A three-well pad it brought online in August and September of 2023—the Jackalope NE #5H and Jackalope NW #1H and #3H in Guernsey County—produced 727,861 bbl through this past June 30, with each of the three wells averaging 802 bbl/d. With the adjacent three-well Jackalope S, SE and SW pad, the six-well development has produced 1.58 MMbbl, averaging 782 bbl/d. Its three-well Wampum RC GR pad in Guernsey County has produced 809,838 bbl since coming online in March of 2023, averaging 596 bbl/d each and, in their first three months online, averaging 1,212 bbl/d each.

More petrochemical leaks likely, UC professor says – WVXU --Petrochemical leaks have harmed communities in Ohio over the past few years — and they’re likely to continue happening as the oil and gas industry grows.University of Cincinnati Environmental Science Professor Amy Townsend-Small says it is common for trains traveling through towns to be transporting chemicals made from oil and gas.The train car that leaked in Whitewater Township last week was carrying an oil-derived chemical called styrene. Similarly, the vinyl chloride spilled from a tanker in East Palestine was made from oil.Production of the oil and gas used to make these chemicals is on the rise. Last year, the U.S. produced more crude oil than any country, ever, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.“That's been helpful in making the United States less reliant on foreign oil and gas, helped bring down gasoline prices, energy prices for home heating, things like that,” Townsend-Small said. “It's also spurred more production of plastics, which are made from oil and natural gas.”In eastern Ohio, several plastics manufacturing plants are being built near natural gas fracking operations, according to reporting from Inside Climate News.“Nobody really wants natural gas pipelines being built, so that's how they're accommodating all this excess natural gas, by making plastics,” Townsend-Small said.There are also plastics manufacturers near Cincinnati, like the INEOS facility where the styrene-leaking tanker was headed to.So, as more oil and gas is produced and transported to plastics manufacturers via truck, train and barge, the likelihood of leaks increase. That’s why Townsend-Small says petrochemical spills, like the styrene leak, will probably happen again.Nearly 100 community members showed up to a joint meeting of the Whitewater and Miami Township boards of trustees Tuesday night, almost a week after many had evacuated their homes because of the styrene leak.Several people asked the same question as one Whitewater Township resident: “What can we do to prevent the toxic tank to be parked that close to the school, water and community?”Brian Stussie, a representative of the Central Railroad of Indiana, said the company had to move all goods and products for everybody, including hazardous material. He cited freight railroads’ “common carrier obligation.”Increased regulation of the rail industry could improve safety measures. Following the train derailment in East Palestine, U.S. senators introduced the bipartisan Railway Safety Act of 2023.

Water Worries re Water Used for Fracking During Ohio Drought - Parts of Ohio (like other areas in the northeast) have experienced a moderate drought over the past several months. The Muskingum Watershed Conservancy District (MWCD) manages ten lakes and four dry dams in southeastern Ohio for purposes of flood control, recreation, and conservation. One of its biggest customers for water sales is the shale oil and gas industry. With the ongoing drought, MWCD recently stopped water sales from Atwood Lake, a popular boating and fishing spot southeast of Canton that has experienced a foot-and-a-half drop in water levels over the past few months. It is the only location where MWCD has had to stop water sales.

DEP Issues Violations To 3 Shale Gas Drillers For Failing To Report Fracking Chemicals, Including At EQT’s Lumber Well Pad In Greene County -- The Department of Environmental Protection issued notices of violation to EQT Production Company in Greene County, Range Resources-Appalachia, LLC in Washington County and Greylock Production LLC (unknown location) last week for failing to report chemicals used in fracking shale gas wells. All three violations involved situations where the companies listed chemicals as “proprietary,” but failed to submit those chemicals under separate, confidential cover to DEP as required by law. These violations follow violations DEP issued on September 8, 2024, to Apex Energy (PA) LLC for failing to submit a list of fracking chemicals used to frack 37 shale gas wells in Salem and Hempfield Townships, Westmoreland County between March 20, 2018 and February 17, 2024. Read more here. The new violations include--

• -- On September 26, 2024, DEP issued a notice of violation to EQT Production Company for failing to submit the list of chemicals used in fracking eight shale gas wells at the Lumber Shale Gas Well Pad in Springhill Township, Greene County. DEP said the violations occurred on April 22, 2024. The well owner was asked to submit a response to the violation by October 10, 2024. The Lumber Shale Gas Well Pad is at the center of a dispute with the surrounding community over whether a “frack-out” of a well at that pad caused the contamination of private water supplies in 2022. On November 29, 2023 the Environmental Hearing Board accepted a settlement agreement between the Department of Environmental Protection and EQT Production Company involving appeals of DEP actions related to a June 19, 2022 frack-out and the Lumber and Spleen Splitter shale gas well pads both in Springhill Township, Greene County. Read more here. DEP said it could not determine if the EQT fracking caused the contamination of the nearby water supply wells. Read more here. On September 10, 2024, WESA reported EQT Corporation is facing accusations from Greene County residents in a class-action lawsuit filed this summer.The complaint, filed June 20, alleges the company’s natural gas drilling operations in New Freeport contaminated the community’s groundwater aquifers in June 2022. Read more here.
• -- On September 26, 2024, DEP issued a notice of violation to Range Resources-Appalachia, LLC for failing to submit the list of chemicals used in fracking one shale gas well at the Brownlee Kelley 12333 Unit Shale Gas Well Pad in Hopewell Township,Washington County. DEP said the violations occurred on March 19, 2024. The well owner was asked to submit a response to the violation by October 10, 2024. On September 26, 2024, DEP issued a notice of violation to Greylock Production LLC for failing to submit the list of chemicals used in fracking.The company said some chemicals were listed as “proprietary,” but failed to submit those chemicals under separate, confidential cover to DEP. Since this notice of violation was not available online, the location and the name of the shale gas wells cited were not available.To find documentation of DEP’s NOV search DEP’s Oil & Gas Compliance Database for September 26, 2024 and Greylock Production LLC.

The Derrick: PUC Considering Emergency Order To Have Aqua Pennsylvania Take Over 6 Rhodes Estate Water Companies [Fallout Continues From Conventional Oil Well Wastewater Spill 15 Months Ago In Venango County] - On October 10, The Derrick reported that on October 8, a draft emergency order was filed with Public Utility Commission Administrative Law Judge Mark A. Hoyer to appoint a temporary receiver to operate six Rhodes Estate water companies as a result of the resignation of the certified water system operators. The Venango Water Company supplying water to the Village of Reno is already operated by Aqua Pennsylvania under a PUC receivership order issued on August 11, 2023 due to contamination of one of its water sources by a wastewater spill from a conventional oil well owned by Petro Erie, Inc. [Read more here]The draft order was filed by the Office of Consumer Advocate and the PUC Bureau of Investigation and Enforcement who are parties in the PUC hearing on the future of the Venango Water Company and the six other Rhodes Estate water companies that started this past July. According to the draft order, Randall and Kevin Rhodes gave notice to parties in the case they would be resigning their positions as certified water system operators effective October 31. Without a certified system operator “it is likely that the Rhodes Utilities will cease providing water and wastewater service to its customers on November 1, 2024,” according to the draft order. The Rhodes Estate water utilities include the Sugarcreek Water Company, West Hickory Water Company, Plumer Water Company, Fryburg Water Company, Cooperstown Water Company, and Blaine E. Rhodes Sewer Company, in addition to the Venango Water Company.. Since “it appears that the Rhodes Utilities do not have a plan that would result in the hiring of a certified operator by November 1,” the draft order requests the Commission to name Aqua Pennsylvania as the receiver to also operate the six other Rhodes Estate water companies. The order suggests a schedule for considering the emergency receivership order that would result in a decision by October 23. Judge Hoyer has scheduled a telephone hearing on the draft emergency order for October 15 at 10:00 a.m.

EPA Files $4.2 Million Settlement Of Air Pollution Violations For 2019 Philadelphia Refinery Explosion, Fire; Public Comments Invited -On October 8, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency announced the federal government has settled its final federal Clean Air Act (CAA) claim against Philadelphia Energy Solutions Refining and Marketing, LLC pertaining to the June 21, 2019 fire and explosion at its former South Philadelphia refinery. EPA alleged that the company violated CAA section 112(r) which requires facility owners and operators to ensure that regulated and other extremely hazardous substances are managed safely. Specifically, EPA alleged that PES violated CAA 112(r) and implementing regulations found at 40 C.F.R. Part 68, which requires facilities to identify and assess the hazards posed by regulated substances, develop an accident prevention program to reduce the risk of accidental releases, and develop an emergency response program. According to EPA, the company violated these requirements by, among other things, failing to ensure that its refining operations, particularly the hydrofluoric acid unit, were designed, built, and operated in accordance with recognized and generally accepted good engineering practices. The proposed $4.2 million settlement, filed in U.S. Bankruptcy Court represents the largest CAA 112(r) penalty EPA has ever imposed for a single incident. EPA has three previous settlements with PES from 2020, one regarding CAA Renewable Fuel Standards, one for compliance issues related to a prior CAA Consent Decree, and the other for recovery of EPA costs related to the refinery’s explosion and fire under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act. The proposed settlement in which PES did not admit liability will have a 30-day public notice and comment period and require final court approval. If approved by the court as an allowed general unsecured claim in the PES bankruptcy matter, the penalty will be paid pursuant to a court-approved bankruptcy reorganization plan. Any monies collected will go to the U.S. Department of Treasury. The former refinery no longer stands or operates at the South Philadelphia location. The current owners intend to use the property as a warehouse distribution center.

20 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Sep 30 – Oct 6 | Marcellus Drilling News There were 20 permits issued to drill new shale wells in Marcellus/Utica for the week of Sept. 30 - Oct. 6, down eight from the 28 issued the prior week. The Keystone State (PA) had eight new permits, with five going to Southwestern Energy (now Expand Energy following a merger with Chesapeake) in both Susquehanna and Wyoming counties. The other three permits went to Laurel Mountain Energy for a pad in Butler County. ASCENT RESOURCES | BUTLER COUNTY | COLUMBIANA COUNTY | ENCINO ENERGY | EQT CORP | HARRISON COUNTY | HG ENERGY | LAUREL MOUNTAIN ENERGY | LEWIS COUNTY | MARSHALL COUNTY | MONROE COUNTY | SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY | SUSQUEHANNA COUNTY |WEEKLY PERMITS | WYOMING COUNTY (PA)

Woodside Acquisition of Tellurian, Driftwood LNG Heads Toward Finish Line with Shareholder Approval Tellurian Inc. shareholders have agreed to accept the acquisition of the firm, and its 27.6 million ton/year (Mt/y) Driftwood LNG project, by Woodside Energy Group Ltd., bringing the Australian energy giant a step closer to expanding its North American strategy. The Houston-based company disclosed Friday that a majority of shareholders approved the merger agreement in a transaction valued at $1.2 billion, including debt. With stockholder approval, Woodside has guided that the deal could be closed by the end of the year, pending regulatory confirmation. “Woodside is a highly credible operator, with better access to financial resources and a greater ability to manage offtake risk, and I am confident it is the right developer to take Driftwood forward,” Executive Chairman Martin Houston said in a July letter to shareholders.

Driftwood LNG Renamed to Woodside Louisiana LNG with Closure of Tellurian Merger Tellurian Inc.’s long-proposed LNG export facility is moving forward under a new name after Woodside Energy Group Ltd. closed its $1.2 billion acquisition of the Houston company and its Louisiana project. The 27.6 million ton/year (Mt/y) liquefied natural gas project currently under early-site work near Lake Charles, LA, has been renamed to Woodside Louisiana LNG from Driftwood LNG, the Australian energy giant disclosed Tuesday. “This is a major growth opportunity that significantly expands our U.S. LNG position, enabling us to better serve global customers and capture further marketing optimization opportunities across both the Atlantic and Pacific Basins,” Woodside CEO Meg O’Neill said.

US natgas prices drop 4% to one-week low ahead of Hurricane Milton (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 4% to a one-week low on Monday on expectations Hurricane Milton will cut the amount of gas power generators need to burn later this week by knocking out electricity service to potentially millions of homes and businesses in Florida. The U.S. National Hurricane Center projected Milton will slam into the west coast of Florida as a major storm late on Wednesday before sweeping across the central part of the state by Thursday morning. Those Florida outages will add to the over 200,000 homes and businesses still without power in the Carolinas and Georgia since Hurricane Helene moved inland after slamming into Florida on Sept. 26. Front-month gas futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 10.8 cents, or 3.8%, to settle at $2.746 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since Sept. 26. But with gas futures up in five of the past six weeks, speculators boosted their net long futures and options positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges for a fifth week in a row to their highest since June, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report. One factor that has supported prices in recent weeks - the front-month has gained about 41% over the past six weeks - was a drop in the amount of fuel utilities have injected into storage for the 2024-2025 winter heating season. Storage builds in July, August and September were at record lows, according to federal energy data going back to 1997. That is because many producers reduced their drilling activities so far this year after average spot monthly prices at the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low in March. Prices have remained relatively low since then. Even though storage injections have been lower than usual in 20 of the past 21 weeks, the amount of gas in inventory was still about 5% above normal levels for this time of year due to low heating demand during the mild winter of 2023-2024. Financial company LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to 101.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, down from 101.8 bcfd in September. That compares with a record 105.5 bcfd in December 2023. LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will ease from 96.4 bcfd this week to 96.2 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants fell to an average of 12.2 bcfd so far in October, down from 12.7 bcfd in September. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. That reduction was due mostly to the planned Sept. 20 shutdown of Berkshire Hathaway Energy's 0.8-bcfd Cove Point LNG export plant in Maryland for around three weeks of annual maintenance, which will likely end later this week.

US natgas prices fall 3% to 1-week low as Hurricane Milton targets Florida (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures slid about 3% to a one-week low on Wednesday on expectations power generators would burn less gas after Hurricane Milton knocks out power to potentially millions of homes and businesses in Florida. The U.S. National Hurricane Center projected Milton will slam into the west coast of Florida as a major storm on Wednesday night before sweeping across the central part of the state on Thursday. Milton has already caused about 48,000 homes and business to lose power in Florida. Those outages will add to the roughly 118,000 customers still without electric service in North Carolina and Georgia since Hurricane Helene moved inland after hitting Florida on Sept. 26. In 2023, power generators in Florida burned a record 3.9 billion cubic feet per day of gas to keep the lights on for the state's roughly 11.5 million power customers, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration and PowerOutage.us. That means every 1 million in customer outages reduces the need to burn around 0.3 bcfd of gas on average. Front-month gas futures NGc1 for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 7.3 cents, or 2.7%, to settle at $2.660 per million British thermal units, their lowest close since Sept. 26 for a fourth day in a row. That was the first time the contract dropped for four days in a row since late August. During that time, it was down about 11%. One factor that has weighed on futures prices all year has been low spot or next-day prices at the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana. The spot market has traded below front-month futures for 168 out of 194 trading days so far this year, according to data from financial firm LSEG. Next-day prices at the Henry Hub were down about 5% to $2.39 per mmBtu for Wednesday. Analysts have noted that so long as spot prices remain far enough below front-month futures to cover margin and storage costs, traders should be able to lock in arbitrage profits by buying spot gas, storing it and selling a futures contract.

Natural Gas Prices Digesting Damage from Hurricane Milton - Natural gas prices are digesting the damage from Hurricane Milton in Sarasota Country, Tampa, and other areas caught in the band, Frederick J. Lawrence, the ex-Independent Petroleum Association of America (IPAA) Chief Economist told Rigzone in an exclusive interview late Thursday. “This hurricane compounded the losses already felt from Hurricane Helene and power restoration will obviously be a priority,” Lawrence told Rigzone. “Milton has caused lost power to at least 3.2 million homes and businesses thus far and will impact demand in the Gulf Coast region. Florida is the third largest consumer of electricity in the U.S. after California and Texas,” he added. Lawrence told Rigzone that the storm missed supply in the Gulf of Mexico but said the larger issue will be resupplying gasoline stations, adding that “Florida is the third largest gasoline consuming state in the United States”. According to data on the GasBuddy website, 24.80 percent of gas stations in Florida were without fuel as of 10.30am ET on October 10. The site showed that 62.97 percent of stations in Tampa/St. Petersburg, 43.68 percent of stations in Sarasota, and 36.63 percent of stations in Fort Myers/Naples were without fuel as of 10.30am ET on Thursday. In another exclusive interview with Rigzone late Thursday, David Seduski, the Head of North American Gas at Energy Aspects, highlighted that Hurricane Milton’s “landfall and pass over Florida is going to cut the state’s gas power demand by up to 1.5 billion cubic feet per day for the next few days”. “The total impact is hard to judge, since it will depend on how quickly power outages can be restored. We are already seeing a sharp decline in the state’s gas demand because of the storm though,” he told Rigzone. A release posted on Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’ website on October 10 pointed out that, at around 8.30pm EDT on October 9, Hurricane Milton “made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 120 miles per hour near Siesta Key in Sarasota County”. “Milton moved quickly across central Florida overnight, producing significant flooding and damaging winds near its path,” the release added. A fact sheet posted on the White House website on October 10 stated that, “before Hurricane Milton made landfall, the federal government pre-staged personnel and resources to ensure a robust and immediate response effort could begin once the storm passed”. “Following Hurricane Milton’s impact on Florida, the Biden-Harris administration is working alongside state and local officials to carry out life-saving response efforts,” it added. “As conditions on the ground begin to improve, first responders have begun assessing damage and assisting communities. The top response priorities include search and rescue, power restoration, route clearance, and debris clean-up,” it continued. The fact sheet highlighted that more than 50,000 workers from 42 states, the District of Columbia, and Canada “already are dedicated to the power restoration efforts”. In a statement posted on its website back in August, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) warned that “atmospheric and oceanic conditions continue to support an above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, with a 90 percent probability of this result”. “2024 has only a 10 percent chance of a near-normal season and a negligible chance of a below-normal season,” it added at the time. NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) website is no longer tracking Hurricane Milton. At the time of writing, the site is monitoring two weather disturbances in the Atlantic. These comprise Tropical Storm Leslie and an unnamed disturbance situated in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic. The Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) did not activate its hurricane response team in response to Hurricane Milton. In September, BSEE activated its hurricane response team in response to two storms – Helene and Francine.

US natgas prices slide 2% to 2-week low on Hurricane Milton power outages (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures slid about 2% to a two-week low on Friday aspower generators burnedless gas after Hurricane Milton knocked out power to millions of homes and businesses in Florida. The price decline came despitea decline in output so far this monthand forecasts for the amountof gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants to increase onceCove Point in Maryland returns to service, which could happen any day now. Front-month gas futures NGc1 for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 4.3 cents, or 1.6%, to settle at $2.632 per million British thermal units, their lowest close since Sept. 26. For the week, the contract was down about 8% after sliding about 2% last week. Hurricane Milton slammed into the west coast of Florida as a major storm Wednesday night and swept across the central part of the state on Thursday. The storm has now dissipated in the Atlantic Ocean. There were still around 2.3 million customers without power in Florida from Milton on Friday, down from a high of around 3.4 million on Thursday. There were also still about 66,000 customers without power in North Carolina and Georgia after Hurricane Helene moved inland after hitting Florida on Sept. 26. In 2023, power generators in Florida burned a record 3.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd)of gas to keep the lights on for the state's roughly 11.5 million power customers, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration and PowerOutage.us. That means every 1 million customer outages reduces the need to burn around 0.3 bcfd of gas on average. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to 101.2 bcfdso far in October, down from 101.8 bcfd in September. That compares with a record 105.5 bcfd in December 2023. That is because many producers reduced their drilling activities so far this year after average spot monthly prices at the U.S. Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low in March. Prices have remained relatively low since then. Meteorologists projected the weather in the Lower 48 states will remain mostly milder than normal through at least Oct. 26. But even though the weather will be mild, it is still turning seasonally cooler with the coming of winter. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants slid to an average of 12.4 bcfd so far in October, down from 12.7 bcfd in September. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. That reduction was due mostly to the planned Sept. 20 shutdown of Berkshire Hathaway Energy's 0.8-bcfd Cove Point LNG export plant in Maryland for around three weeks of annual maintenance. That Cove Point outage could end soon. The company told customers it was seeking to purchase gas on Oct. 11, but also noted some gas flows would be restricted until further notice due to unplanned maintenance at the Pleasant Valley compressor station in Virginia.

Henry Hub Spot Prices to Average $3.10 in 2025 as U.S. LNG Capacity Increases, Says EIA -Henry Hub natural gas spot prices rose by 15% month/month in September and should continue to climb into 2025 on the back of more domestic LNG capacity, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). NGI's Henry Hub daily and bidweek Henry Hub natural gas prices graphed alongside U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates for U.S. natural gas prices showing historical volatility. In the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) for October, researchers noted that spot gas prices in September averaged $2.28/MMBtu, up from $1.98 in August. The rise in prices was partly attributed to Hurricane Francine, which made landfall on the Louisiana coast on Sept. 11, EIA researchers noted. About 53% of Gulf of Mexico (GOM) gas production was taken offline because of the storm.

Government Won't Sell New Oil Leases For The First Time Since 1958 - Despite gas prices still being high, the federal government hasn't held any new oil and gas lease sales this year—the last time this happened was in 1958. This means America is becoming more dependent on other countries for energy. Jay Young, founder and CEO of King Operating Corporation, told KTRH that this, of course, means higher prices. He said, "If you did not have horizontal drilling and fracking, this country would be so dependent on Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and other countries that people would be walking everywhere." Young also said that this will make it harder for oil companies to secure investments because of the industry's volatility. He explained, "Pensions and teachers' retirements put hundreds of billions of dollars at risk. All the companies that put all the money at risk lost." He says they aren't likely to invest in the oil industry again. Young also warned that if Kamala Harris wins the presidency in November, don’t expect this situation to improve at all.

2 Dead After Chemical Leak at Pemex Houston Area Refinery | Rigzone --2 Dead After Chemical Leak at Pemex Houston Area Refinery -- Two people are dead and 35 are injured after a chemical release. Image by Sean Pavone via iStock Two people are dead and 35 are injured after a chemical release at a Houston area refinery owned by Mexico’s state oil company. The Deer Park plant halted some operations after the leak late yesterday, according to a statement from Petroleos Mexicanos. The workers who died were contractors and not Pemex employees, Chief Executive Officer Victor Rodriguez Padilla said in a press conference Friday. “We were not able to recover the bodies until dawn due to the area remaining contaminated for a few hours,” Padilla said. The state-owned company has come under scrutiny in recent years for its poor safety record, which including a 2021 offshore platform accident that killed five, and numerous fires at its network of oil refineries. Pemex in 2022 acquired the Deer Park plant, which had been a joint venture between the state oil company and Shell Plc. The refinery shut at least three units following the leak, Padilla said. Among them were a coker that processes residual oil and a hydrotreater that removes sulfur from refined products.

NGO calls for more action to mitigate oil spill risk before production restart of pipeline connected to platform trio off California - Santa Barbara-based nonprofit Environmental Defense Center (EDC) has urged the government to postpone the restart of a pipeline in California that caused an oil spill nine years ago until the state provides access to all relevant documentation, conducts an environmental review, and enables public engagement to allow greater transparency into the plans made by Sable Offshore, a Texas-based oil company, to bring the pipeline back online and transport hydrocarbons produced at three offshore platforms linked to it. EDC and 13 legislators representing coastal communities sent letters to the state fire marshal seeking an environmental review as required by the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) before authorizing the plan to restart the former Plains All-American pipeline on the Gaviota Coast.The pipeline’s rupture in 2015 caused the Refugio oil spill, deemed one of the worst oil spills in recent California history. According to Sable, the operation, including the pipeline, is planned to be restarted by the year’s end.“We have grave reservations regarding the restart of (the pipelines), which have already caused a catastrophic oil spill, and which Sable intends to restart without effective protection from corrosion,” the state legislators wrote in a letter spearheaded by State Senator Monique Limón. “The safety of these pipelines is a serious concern for many in our community, and it is important that the public is aware of the conditions of the pipelines and what is being done to make them operate safely.”As the approval process has been conducted behind closed doors with no opportunity for the public to review or comment on the restart plans, the letters also request that the fire marshal hold hearings and release documents related to the plan to allow public input.In 2015, the corroded Plains All-American pipeline ruptured near Refugio Beach. Based on EDC’s data, the spill destroyed 150 miles of the California coast and thousands of acres of shoreline and subtidal habitat, killed many animals, shut down fisheries, cost hundreds of millions to clean up, and resulted in criminal convictions for the former owner.According to a draft environmental impact report from Santa Barbara County, restarting the compromised pipeline would likely result in a spill every year, and a major rupture every four years. The county predicted that ruptures could be nearly twice the size of the Refugio spill, even if Sable installs modern safety valve technology.In response to a public records request by EDC, Sable sued the state and EDC in July to prevent the release of the company’s oil spill contingency plan. Despite being required to submit this document to the California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW), Sable claimed this would compromise national security and the company’s trade secrets.The Sacramento County Superior Court ruled in favor of the state and EDC in August, giving access to Sable’s contingency plan. The NGO claims that the plan suggests that a worst-case spill from its onshore pipelines could be at least 14 times the volume of the Refugio spill. Furthermore, the document contains no plan to respond to another spill nor proof of the financial means to remedy one. “Should (the state Fire Marshal) approve the Restart Project, our clients and our community will bear the consequences,” EDC’s letter stated. “All we are asking for is a voice in a decision that will directly and substantially impact our community and the future of the Central Coast.” The pipelines and other equipment were formerly owned by ExxonMobil. The NGO claims that the operation – known as the Santa Ynez Unit (SYU) – was responsible for more than half of Santa Barbara County’s total greenhouse gas emissions when operational. The SYU comprises an onshore oil and natural gas processing facility near Goleta, California, and three offshore platforms – Hondo, Heritage, and Harmony. The oil and gas are transported through a subsea pipeline and treated at the Las Flores Canyon oil and gas plant and the Pacific Offshore Pipeline Company (POPCO) gas plant, both located in Las Flores Canyon. The platforms are located 5 to 9 miles offshore in shallow water and service 112 wells, comprised of 90 producers, 12 injectors and 10 idle with well over 100 identified, undrilled opportunities. Before shut-in, the operations produced approximately 34 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d). The onshore facilities separated oil, propane, butane, sulfur products, and fuel-quality gas, with oil transferred to the All American Pipeline for final processing at a refinery. Since the pipeline was shut down in May 2015, SYU assets have not produced commercial quantities of hydrocarbons. According to Sable, if necessary permits are not obtained and production restarted by January 1, 2026, the assets are to be reverted to ExxonMobil under the terms ofthe purchase and sale agreement. On its part, the Texan player says it continued preparing for the restart of production by hiring additional employees and contracting repair crews to begin its anomaly repair program and other requirements necessary to meet conditions of the federal court consent decree on California pipelines Line 324 and Line 325 in cooperation with and under the supervision of the California Office of the State Fire Marshal (OSFM). While the fire marshal has the final say over whether Sable can restart its failed onshore pipeline, additional approvals are needed before the Texan player can restart the SYU, including from Santa Barbara County, the State Lands Commission, and the CDFW.

Illegal construction cited on Refugio oil spill pipeline -The California Coastal Commission is accusing the company that owns the Refugio Oil spill pipeline of doing unpermitted construction. The Coastal Commission first sent a violation letter in September, asking Sable Offshore Corp. to stop all work on the pipeline until it secured the proper coastal permits. Sable agreed, but last week, the Commission learned construction had not stopped. In a second letter, the Commission warned that it would issue a cease-and-desist order if the unpermitted work didn’t stop right away. A decade ago, this pipeline spilled over 100,000 gallons of oil that flowed into the ocean. Alex Helperin, an attorney for the Coastal Commission, said the permit rules are in place to protect the environment. “We've seen the consequences of a past failure of this pipeline. We need to be able to look at all the resources that could be affected if something were to go wrong here and to make sure that nothing does go wrong,” Helperin said. Sable Offshore Corp. said in a statement that it has moved crews out of the coastal zone and is complying with the Commission's requests. The pipeline has been shut down since the 2015 oil spill, but work is underway to reopen it. If construction continues in the coastal zone, Helperin said the Commission could take more action, including filing a lawsuit to seek penalties

U.S. Sends More Natural Gas to Brazil Amid Drought — Brazil’s LNG imports are on the rise as the country’s dry season nears an end. A drought has reduced hydroelectric production and forced the country to buy more spot liquefied natural gas cargoes. Imports hit 230,000 tons last week, above the four-week moving average of 150,000 tons and the highest level since November 2021, according to Kpler data. About 190,000 tons were delivered from the United States last week, while the rest came from Trinidad and Tobago, according to Kpler. Brazil’s dry season typically runs from May to November before rains set in and help to boost hydroelectric output each year.

Chevron Sells Canadian Oil Sands, Duvernay Shale Assets for $6.5B - Chevron’s indirect subsidiary Chevron Canada Ltd. said Oct. 7 that it and a related entity had entered into an agreement to sell interests in the Athabasca Oil Sands project and the Duvernay Shale to Canadian Natural Resources Ltd.In exchange for Chevron Canada’s 20% interest in Athabasca and 70% interest in the Duvernay, the company will receive $6.5 billion cash. The assets subject to the agreement contributed 84,000 boe/d, net of royalties, to Chevron in 2023.Chevron has previously said it expected its Duvernay assets to fetch about $500 million, suggesting that the Athabasca assets made up the lion’s share of the sale price.The $6.5 billion all-cash transaction is in line with previously announced plans by the supermajor to divest between $10 billion and $15 billion in assets by 2028. Chevron is optimizing its global energy portfolio following the company’s pending acquisition of Hess Corp. for a $53 billion.The Hess deal remains on pause as Exxon Mobil and Chevron work through arbitration related to Hess’ offshore Guyana assets. The oil sands and Duvernay transactions have an effective date of Sept. 1, 2024, and is expected to close in fourth-quarter 2024, subject to regulatory approvals.

Colombia Reports Giant Offshore Find as Natural Gas Shortfall ‘Crisis’ Looms -Colombian state oil and gas firm Ecopetrol SA in partnership with Brazilian oil giant Petrobras SA have potentially struck it rich in the Caribbean Sea offshore Guajira. State-owned Petrobras said that the Sirius-1 and Sirius-2 developments offshore Guajira in Colombia could hold about 6 Tcf of natural gas, “confirming the magnitude of the discoveries made in the area and its importance for the Colombian gas market.” Ecopetrol officials said the find could meet 80% of Colombia’s natural gas demand.

TTF Rally Ends, but Middle East Tensions Keep Global Natural Gas Prices Elevated – LNG Recap European natural gas prices declined Monday in a sign futures contracts were overbought amid a rally last week that was sparked by escalating tensions in the Middle East. European Union Natural Gas Storage. The November Title Transfer Facility contract gave up about 3% on Monday to finish just under $13/MMBtu. TTF closed at its highest point all year on Friday, when it settled at $13.21 days after Iran attacked Israel with about 200 ballistic missiles. The contract charged higher most of last week, driven by a European market that’s still concerned about supply disruptions more than two years after Russia invaded Ukraine and cut off nearly all natural gas exports to the continent.

Another FSRU Enters Service in Europe as Winter Heating Season Gets Underway -- Greece’s first floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) entered service last week to serve central and Southeast Europe as the continent continues to diversify its natural gas supplies. Gastrade AE said the Alexandroupolis LNG Terminal started service on Oct. 1. It was sanctioned in January 2022 – just before Russia invaded Ukraine and later cut off most natural gas exports to Europe. The terminal includes an FSRU and pipelines that connect to Greece’s gas transmission system. The 5.5 billion cubic meter/year facility would import liquefied natural gas for delivery to Bulgaria, Greece, Hungary, Moldova, North Macedonia, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia and Ukraine.

Global Natural Gas Demand Seen Hitting New Highs Amid Limited LNG Supply Growth -Worldwide natural gas demand is forecast to break records in 2024 and 2025, with modest growth in LNG supply driving tightness in the market, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). International Energy Agency's (IEA) bar chart showing global natural gas demand forecast changes from 2023 to 2024 for 2050. The global energy watchdog expects global gas demand in 2024 to grow by more than 2.5% to reach a record 4,200 billion cubic meters (Bcm), with the Asia Pacific region accounting for almost 45% of the growth. Researchers detailed their findings in IEA’s Global Gas Security Review, published earlier this month. North American gas consumption is forecast to rise by 1% year/year, “with growth primarily supported by the power sector,” the IEA team said. “In 2025 natural gas demand is projected to remain close to its 2024 levels.”

Exclusive: BP abandons goal to cut oil output, resets strategy -- (Reuters) - BP has abandoned a target to cut oil and gas output by 2030 as CEO Murray Auchincloss scales back the firm's energy transition strategy to regain investor confidence, three sources with knowledge of the matter said.When unveiled in 2020, BP's strategy was the sector's most ambitious with a pledge to cut output by 40% while rapidly growing renewables by 2030. BP scaled back the target in February last year to a 25% reduction, which would leave it producing 2 million barrels per day at the end of the decade, as investors focused on near-term returns rather than the energy transition. The London-listed company is now targeting several new investments in the Middle East and the Gulf of Mexico to boost its oil and gas output, the sources said. Auchincloss, previously BP's finance head, has sought to distance himself from the approach of his predecessor Bernard Looney, who was sacked for lying about relationships with colleagues, vowing instead to focus on returns and investing in the most profitable businesses, first and foremost in oil and gas. The company continues to target net zero emissions by 2050."As Murray said at the start of year... the direction is the same – but we are going to deliver as a simpler, more focused, and higher value company," a BP spokesperson said. BP shares were up 0.8% by 0912 GMT.Rival Shell has also slowed down its energy transition strategy since CEO Wael Sawan took office in January, selling power and renewable businesses and scaling back projects including offshore wind, biofuels and hydrogen. The shift at both companies has come in the wake of a renewed focus on European energy security following the price shock sparked by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in early 2022.BP has invested billions in new low-carbon businesses and sharply reduced its oil and gas exploration team since 2020.But supply chain issues and sharp increases in costs and interest rates have put further pressure on the profitability of many renewables businesses. A company source said that while rivals had invested in oil and gas, BP had neglected exploration for a few years.BP is currently in talks to invest in three new projects in Iraq, including one in the Majnoon field, the sources said. BP holds a 50% stake in a joint venture operating the giant Rumaila oilfield in the south of the country, where it has been operating for a century.In August, BP signed an agreement with the Iraqi government to develop and explore the Kirkuk oilfield in the north of the country, which will also include building power plants and solar capacity. Unlike historic contracts which offered foreign companies razor-thin margins, the new agreements are expected to include a more generous profit-sharing model, sources have told Reuters.BP is also considering investing in the re-development of fields in Kuwait, the sources added.In the Gulf of Mexico, BP has announced it will go ahead with the development of Kaskida, a large and complex reservoir, and the company also plans to green light the development of the Tiber field. It will also weigh acquiring assets in the prolific Permian shale basin to expand its existing U.S. onshore business, which has expanded its reserves by over 2 billion barrels since acquiring the business in 2019, the sources said. Auchincloss, who in May announced a $2 billion cost saving drive by the end of 2026, has in recent months paused investment in new offshore wind and biofuel projects and cut the number of low-carbon hydrogen projects down to 10 from 30.

Oil spill expected from sunken HMNZ Manawainui -- Seventy-five crew members of the New Zealand Navy Ship, the HMNZS Manawanui were rescued after it ran aground and sank off the coast of Samoa's main island of Upolu over the weekend. The vessel was surveying the sea floor, just two kilometres from shore, when it ran into a reef on Saturday night and caught fire. Samoa's acting Prime Minister Tuala Tevaga Iosefo Ponifasio said Samoa police assisted in the evacuation of 75 crew members who were later taken to the New Zealand High Commission in Apia. "A call was received from the rescue coordination centre in New Zealand that the crew would be abandoning ship and getting into life rafts," said the acting Prime Minister. "The Manawanui is not recoverable and has sunk into the sea...the possibility of an oil spill is highly probable," he added.

New Zealand Navy ship sinks near Samoa, raising oil spill fears - The Washington Post — A New Zealand navy ship sank one mile off the coast of Samoa on Sunday, prompting fears of an environmental and ecological disaster. The roughly $60 million ship, the HMNZS Manawanui, was conducting a hydrographic reef survey on Saturday when it ran aground near the southern coast of Upolu, Samoa, according to a statement released by the New Zealand navy. The cause of the accident is not yet known. An inquiry has been launched into what the navy said was its first peacetime loss of a vessel. The last naval ship loss was during World War II. The 75 personnel on board evacuated in life rafts and safely made it to the nearby shore with the help of rescuers, officials said. “The HMNZS Manawanui is not recoverable,” Tuala Tevaga Iosefo Ponifasio, acting prime minister of Samoa, said in a statement posted to social media Sunday. The possibility of an oil spill occurring was highly likely, he said, and government agencies were beginning to conduct environmental impact assessments on the marine ecosystem.“The most immediate threat to the local reef ecosystem stems from the release of fuel oil which is likely already occurring,” Nick Ling, an associate professor of science at the University of Waikato in New Zealand, said in an email. Recovery efforts will be challenging, he said, “given the exposed nature of the site and the dangers for any salvage vessels working in such close proximity to the reef.” Chris Battershill, a professor and coastal science expert at the same university, said ship hulls can be “quite damaging” to fragile coral reef systems — particularly if they’re painted with older varieties of antifouling paint, used to deter marine pests, which can contain tin and other toxic materials. The ship has come to rest about 500 feet from the ocean surface — a depth that means it is less likely to be disturbed by future storms, exacerbating any existing hull damage. But that depth also makes salvage efforts more difficult, Battershill said. “Crew may need decompression chambers, and there’s only a narrow window of time to seal any fuel leaks,” he wrote in the publication the Conversation.

CNOOC Started Production in Seven Oil and Gas Projects in 2024 - CNOOC Ltd. has begun production in the Bozhong 19-2 Oilfield Development Project in central Bohai Bay, the seventh oil and gas project put onstream by the Chinese state-backed company this year. The oil and gas explorer and producer expects the project to reach 18,800 barrels of heavy crude per day in peak production in 2025. CNOOC Ltd., majority-owned by China National Offshore Oil Corp. (CNOOC), aims to commission 59 development wells in the project, 34 of which would be for production. “Smart engineering and standardized construction have remarkably reduced the project’s construction cycle”, CNOOC said in a press release. “It has strongly promoted the efficient development of offshore oil and gas resources and laid a solid foundation for the production growth in the Bohai oilfields, the largest crude oil production base in China”. Bozhong 19-2 has an average water depth of about 20 meters (65.6 feet). The production facilities include a new central processing platform and four unmanned wellhead platforms. CNOOC Ltd. is the sole owner. Late last month CNOOC Ltd. put online the Shenhai-1 Phase II Natural Gas Development Project in the northern South China Sea. It expects the Qiongdongnan Basin project to reach 162 million cubic feet and 3,931 barrels of condensate per day in peak production in 2025. CNOOC Ltd. aims to commission 12 development wells in the second-phase project. “The project has successfully overcome the world-class challenge of deepwater high-pressure oil and gas reservoir development”, CNOOC Ltd. chair Wang Dongjin said in a statement September 27. “It witnesses effective large-scale conversion of reserves into production from the ‘South China Sea trillion-cubic-meters-level gas region’, and provides stable supply of clean energy for the economic and social development of South China. “In the future, CNOOC Limited will accelerate the development of new quality productivity of marine energy and strengthen the exploration and development of deepwater oil and gas resources, thereby further contributing to the high-quality development of China’s offshore oil industry”. Shenhai 1 started operation June 2021 using the world's first deepwater semi-submersible oil production and storage platform, according to the 100 percent operator. The second-phase project has an average water depth of about 900 meters (2,952.8 feet). The production facilities include a new fixed production platform and three centralized subsea wellheads. Earlier in September CNOOC Ltd. said the Liuhua 11-1/4-1 Oilfield Secondary Development Project in the eastern South China Sea had started production. It expects the project, which consists of oilfields Liuhua 4-1 and Liuhua 11-1, to reach around 17,900 barrels of oil equivalent a day (boed) in peak output in 2026. CNOOC Ltd. aims to commission 32 wells in the project. Liuhua 11-1/4-1 is the first oil project in Asia “to be developed with the 'Deepwater Jacket Platform + Cylindrical FPSO' mode”, CNOOC Ltd. chief executive and president Zhou Xinhuai said in a media release September 19. The production facilities include a new deepwater jacket platform and a cylindrical floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) unit. Liuhua 11-1/4-1 has an average water depth of around 305 meters (1,000.7 feet). “While revitalizing the deepwater oilfields with original oil in place over 100 million tons, the new mode has substantially reduced the construction and production costs”, Zhou said. “It provides a Chinese solution for the efficient development of similar deepwater oil and gas fields”. CNOOC Ltd., listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, is the sole developer. On September 4 it said it had started up the Wushi 17-2 Oilfields Development Project, located in the Beibu Gulf in water depths of approximately 28 meters (91.9 feet) on average. CNOOC Ltd. expects the project to achieve about 9,900 boed in peak production 2026. It plans to commission 43 development wells, 28 of which would be production wells. CNOOC Ltd. operates the project with an 80 percent interest. Before the four projects put onstream over the last two months, CNOOC Ltd. started up three projects in 2024: the Suizhong 36-1/Luda 5-2 Oilfield Secondary Adjustment and Development Project, the Bozhong 19-6 Gas Field 13-2 Block 5 Well Site Development Project and the Wushi 23-5 Oilfields Development Project. “Technological breakthroughs made the Company more competitive in the market”, CNOOC Ltd. said in a financial report August 28. “Progress in exploration theory and technology guided the discovery of multiple oil and gas fields such as Lingshui 36-1, Bozhong 8-3 South and Longkou 7-1. “In terms of development and construction, Liuhua 11-1/4-1 Oilfield Secondary Development Project adopted the innovative mode of ‘deep-water jacket platform + cylindrical FPSO’, creating a brand-new solution for the efficient development of deepwater oil and gas fields in offshore China. “For drilling and completion, the Company drilled an ultra-deep extra extended reach well in Enping 21-4 oilfield, the first one of its type, setting new records for the deepest offshore drilling depth and horizontal length in offshore China. The well would significantly improve production efficiency of the project”. On September 10 CNOOC Ltd. declared “the first major exploration breakthrough in ultra-deepwater carbonate rocks offshore China” after drilling nearly 3,000 meters (9,842.5 feet) deep into the Pearl River Mouth Basin. The well sits in a water depth of nearly 1,640 meters (5,380.6 feet) in the Baiyun Sag, the biggest hydrocarbon sag in the Pearl River Mouth Basin according to the company. The total depth was nearly 4,400 meters (14,435.7 feet). "Previously, exploration in China's ultra-deepwater areas mainly focused on clastic rocks”, the company’s chief geologist, Xu Changgui, said then. “The success of this well has, for the first time, revealed the enormous potential of carbonate rocks in China’s ultra-deep waters, marking significant breakthroughs in both exploration understanding and operational techniques”. In the first half of 2024 CNOOC Ltd. produced 362.6 million boe, a 9.3 percent year-on-year increase and the company’s highest production in the January–June period.

The Conflict in the Middle East Continuing to Drive the Market Higher - The crude market on Monday continued to add to the previous week’s gains with the conflict in the Middle East continuing to drive the market higher. The market posted a low of $73.62 soon after it opened before it bounced off that level and never looked back as the market weighed the threat of a broader conflict in the Middle East on the first anniversary of Hamas’ October 7^th attacks against Israel, which led to its retaliation in Gaza. The oil market extended its gains to over 3.8% as it traded to $77.22 by mid-day. The market later erased some of its gains and settled in a sideways trading range ahead of the close. The November WTI contract settled up $2.76 at $77.14 before it rallied to a high of $77.40 in the post settlement period. Meanwhile, the Brent market traded over the $80 level for the first time since August, posting a high of $81.08. The December Brent contract settled up $2.88 at $80.93. The product markets remained well supported as well, with the heating oil market settling up 8.35 cents at $2.3962 and the RB market settling up 5.8 cents at $2.1538. On Monday, Hamas’ armed wing attacked Israel’s Tel Aviv with a missile salvo. The Israeli military said sirens were sounded in central Israel. Meanwhile, Hezbollah rockets hit Israel’s third largest city Haifa early on Monday as the country looked poised to expand ground incursions into southern Lebanon on the first anniversary of the Gaza War. The growing conflict has raised fears that the United States and Iran will be sucked into a wider war in the oil-producing Middle East. Israel’s military, in a statement, said five rockets were launched at Haifa from Lebanon. It said 15 other rockets were fired inland at Tiberias in Israel’s northern Galilee region, some of them intercepted.Chevron said all personnel from its Blind Faith platform in the Gulf of Mexico have been transported and the facility has been shut in ahead of Hurricane Milton. It said production from its other Gulf of Mexico assets remain at normal levels.IIR Energy reported that U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 873,000 bpd of capacity offline in the week ending October 11^th, increasing available refining capacity by 383,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 795,000 bpd in the week ending October 18^th. Energy giant Shell warned Monday it expects to post a sharp drop in its refining margins for the third quarter of 2024 as a result of a slump in global demand for refined products. It sees its refining margin of just $5.5 per barrel down from $7.70 per barrel in the second quarter. Shell noted its downward revision was the result of a slowdown in China’s economy and a slump in the European industrial sector as well as increased supply of products coming out of the Middle East as new refineries come online.Sable Offshore said it was expecting to restart the Santa Ynez oil and gas pipeline off California’s coast by the end of the year after it was shut for nearly a decade following a major oil leak. However, the company cautioned that there was no assurance it would obtain the necessary permits to restart the pipeline. The Santa Ynez unit includes three offshore oil platforms, an onshore processing facility and a pipeline off the coast of California, connecting the Santa Barbara Channel to the Las Flores Canyon liquids storage terminal.

U.S. crude oil jumps more than 3%, closes above $77 as market waits for Israel strike against IranU.S. crude oil jumped more than 3% on Monday, as the market waited for Israel to strike Iran. Oil prices spiked last week on fears that Israel could hit Iran's oil industry in retaliation for Tehran's ballistic missile attack.U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate surged 9.09% last week for the biggest weekly gain since March 2023. Global benchmark Brent jumped 8.43% for the largest weekly advance since January 2023. Here are Monday's closing energy prices:

• West Texas Intermediate November contract: $77.14 per barrel, up $2.76, or 3.71%. Year to date, U.S. crude oil has gained more than 7%.
• Brent December contract: $80.93 per barrel, up $2.88, or 3.69%. Year to date, the global benchmark is ahead about 5%.
• RBOB Gasoline November contract: $2.1538 per gallon, up 2.77%. Year to date, gasoline has advanced more than 2%.
• Natural Gas November contract: $2.746 per thousand cubic feet, down 3.78%. Year to date, gas is ahead more than 9%.

President Joe Biden on Friday discouraged Israel from striking Iranian oil facilities, after prices jumped about 5% a day earlier when the president suggested the U.S. was discussing the possibility of such an attack. Biden has also said he opposes Israel hitting Iran's nuclear facilities. It's still unclear what form Israeli retaliation will take, said Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets. The impact on the oil market would be significant if Israel struck Kharg Island, through which 90% of Iran's crude exports pass, Croft said."We do really have to see what the Israelis hit, what would the Iranian response mechanism be" Croft told CNBC's"Worldwide Exchange" on Monday. "But certainly we have not been closer to a regional war in a long time."The market right now is only pricing in the possibility of Israel striking Iran's oil facilities but that is not the worst-case scenario, Alan Gelder, vice president of oil markets at Wood Mackenzie, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Monday. The worst-case scenario is a disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's crude exports flow, Gelder said. Iran might target the strait in response to an Israeli strike, which would have a far more dramatic effect on crude prices, the analyst said. The war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza has now ground on for a year with no end in sight. The conflict has increasingly escalated into a multifront war in the Middle East. Israel is battling Hezbollah in Lebanon and has struck Houthi militants in Yemen, in relation for rocket attacks by those groups. Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis are allied with Iran. The war in the Middle East has not led to a disruption of crude supplies so far, but analysts warn the risk is rising the longer the conflict continues.

Oil Prices Plunge as China Fails to Deliver New Stimulus - Oil plunged as China’s top economic planner ended a highly anticipated briefing on Tuesday without new stimulus measures, sparking a risk-off mood across markets. Global benchmark Brent crude and US benchmark West Texas Intermediate both lost 4.6%, snapping five-session rallies. China’s National Development and Reform Commission said it’s confident the country will reach its economic targets this year, but the lack of new spending disappointed investors. “The disappointment — for traders expecting to see new fiscal spending — is what has tamped down on most commodity prices today.” said Thierry Wizman, global foreign exchange and rates strategist at Macquarie. Still, the oil market remains susceptible to a flare-up in the Middle East. Traders are watching for Israel’s retaliation against Iran following a missile attack last week, which raised concerns of an all-out war. Crude pared some of its earlier losses midday after NBC reported that Israel is still considering striking Iran’s energy facilities, among a number of options. Iron ore and base metals slumped following the NDRC’s comments, and Hong Kong shares had their worst day since 2008, falling almost 10%. Chinese officials said that they would speed up spending while largely reiterating plans to boost investment. Oil demand from China, the world’s top crude importer, has been a major cause for concern among investors, and prices slumped in the third quarter largely due to those worries. With crude rallying more than $7 a barrel since Iran first launched missiles at Israel, some investors are also likely booking profits as markets await new developments, traders said. “After the recent massive rally, it wouldn’t be surprising to see some profit-taking,” said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group. “Geopolitical premiums tend to fade as fewer headlines emerge, even when underlying risks remain present.” WTI for November delivery declined 4.6% to settle at $73.57 a barrel. Brent for December settlement dropped 4.6% to $77.18 a barrel. Israel, meanwhile, escalated fighting against Iran-backed groups, keeping the market on edge. On Tuesday, the Israel Defense Forces said a fourth army division is being deployed into Lebanon a week after the start of a ground operation against Hezbollah, and that about 135 projectiles were fired by the Iran-backed militia into Israel. The Middle East accounts for a third of global crude supply, and President Joe Biden has sought to discourage Israel from attacking Tehran’s oil fields. Israel’s defense minister is set to travel to Washington as the country weighs how to respond to Iran’s attack. A gauge of implied volatility for Brent remains near the highest in a year. There’s been a deluge of call options — which profits buyers when futures gain — and prices have also closed above some key long-term moving averages. “In the short term, the risk is for higher prices,” Pierre Andurand, founder of Andurand Capital Management, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. While speculative net bets on rising Brent prices are near record lows, “we have lots of supply risks potentially in Iran,” he added.

Energy Companies Began Shutting Down Their Pipelines in Tampa - The crude market on Tuesday posted an outside trading day, as it continued on its upward trend in follow through strength seen on Monday before it sold off on profit taking. The market quickly rallied to a high of $78.46 on the opening overnight. However, the market just as quickly erased its gains on concerns over China’s economy as traders were disappointed after China’s top economic planner ended a briefing on Tuesday without announcing new stimulus measures to spur growth in the sluggish economy. The oil market continued to trend lower and extended its losses to $4.45 as it posted a low of $72.69 in afternoon trading. The market was also pressured by the reports that Hezbollah left the door open to a ceasefire with Israel. The crude market later retraced some of its sharp losses ahead of the close. The November WTI contract settled down $3.57 at $73.57 and the December Brent contract settled down $3.75 at $77.18. The product markets also ended the session sharply lower, with the heating oil market ending the session down 9.9 cents at $2.2972 and the RB market settling down 8.57 cents at $2.0681. The EIA estimated in its Short Term Energy Outlook that world petroleum demand in 2024 will increase by 920,000 bpd to 103.06 million bpd, unchanged from a previous estimate and expects demand to increase by 1.2 million bpd to 104.3 million bpd in 2025, up 0.29% from a previous estimate of 104.6 million bpd. World oil output is forecast to increase by 500,000 bpd to 102.5 million bpd in 2024, up 0.29% from a previous estimate of 102.2 million bpd, while output in 2025 is forecast to increase by 2 million bpd to 104.5 million bpd, down 0.1% from a previous estimate of 104.6 million bpd. U.S. oil output is forecast to increase by 290,000 bpd to 13.22 million bpd in 2024, down 0.23% from a previous forecast of 13.25 million bpd and output in 2025 is expected to increase by 320,000 bpd to 13.54 million bpd, which is down 0.95% from a previous estimate of 13.67 million bpd. Meanwhile, U.S. oil demand in 2024 is forecast at 20.3 million bpd, unchanged from a previous estimate. Demand in 2025 is forecast to increase by 200,000 bpd to 20.5 million bpd, which is down 0.49% from a previous forecast. Israel’s Defense Minister said it appeared the replacement for slain Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah had been “eliminated”. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant made the announcement about Hashem Safieddine as Israel began ground operations in southwest Lebanon, expanding its incursions to a new zone, and as Hezbollah left the door open to a negotiated ceasefire. Energy companies began shutting down their pipelines and fuel-delivery terminals in Tampa, Florida ahead of Hurricane Milton. Kinder Morgan Inc shutdown its pipelines that are part of its central Florida pipeline system and closed all terminals in the Tampa area in response to Hurricane Milton. Citgo also shut down its Tampa terminal as Hurricane Milton approaches the Florida coast. Buckeye has suspended operations at its Tampa terminal facilities on Tuesday. Meanwhile, an increasing number of gasoline retailers were running out of fuel on Tuesday amid some panic buying ahead of Hurricane Milton’s landfall. According to GasBuddy, as many as 15.8% of Florida’s gasoline stations had run out of fuel on Tuesday morning.

Crude prices slide over 4% on possible Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire (Reuters) - Oil prices slid on Tuesday, settling down more than 4% on news of a possible ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel, although prices found some support on fears of a potential attack on Iranian oil infrastructure. Brent crude futures settled down $3.75, or 4.63%, at $77.18 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures finished down $3.57, or 4.63%, at $73.57 a barrel. At their session lows, both were down more than $4 a barrel. "This morning, we heard about the potential ceasefire. Then we got indications targets are still being dialed in and energy targets are in the mix." "That Hezbollah is open to a ceasefire, is the kind of headline that people jump on," "There should be a lot of volatility up and down on this conflict."On Monday, Brent rose above $80 per barrel for the first time since August after more than a 3% daily gain. That followed the largest weekly gain in over a year, roughly 8%, in the week to Friday on rising concerns of a spreading war in the Middle East.Hezbollah left the door open to a negotiated ceasefire after Israeli forces raised the stakes in the conflict with its Iran-backed enemy by making new incursions in the south of Lebanon. Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant said it appeared the replacement for slain Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah had also been eliminated. Late on Tuesday, Israel's military warned people away from specific buildings in the southern suburbs of Beirut.The oil price rally began after Iran launched a missile barrage at Israel on Oct. 1. Israel has sworn to retaliate and said it was weighing its options. Some analysts said an attack on Iranian oil infrastructure was unlikely and warned oil prices could face considerable downward pressure if Israel focuses on any other target. In the U.S., Hurricane Milton intensified into a Category 5 storm on its way to Florida after forcing at least one oil and gas platform in the Gulf of Mexico to shut on Monday. U.S. crude oil stocks rose by nearly 11 million barrels last week, while fuel stockpiles fell, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. Crude stocks rose by 10.96 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 4, the sources said on condition of anonymity. Gasoline inventories fell by 557,000 barrels, and distillate stocks fell by 2.60 million barrels, they said.

Oil Prices Decline as Traders Take Profits In a market analysis sent to Rigzone today, George Pavel, General Manager at Capex.com Middle East, said oil prices declined on Tuesday as traders took profits following a sharp rally that had pushed prices to their highest levels in over a month. “The recent surge was mainly driven by fears of potential supply disruptions stemming from escalating tensions in the Middle East due to recent attacks involving Iran-backed Hezbollah and Israel’s response,” Pavel said in the analysis. “While geopolitical tensions remain high, the market appears to be pricing in a low likelihood of direct attacks on Iranian oil infrastructure. OPEC’s spare production capacity is also giving confidence that any potential shortages could be managed,” he added. Pavel also noted in the analysis that, on the demand side, concerns about slow growth in China have contributed to the cautious outlook for oil. “Traders are also keeping an eye on upcoming U.S. inflation data and crude oil inventory reports,” he said, adding that “a rise in crude could further pressure prices if they indicate weaker demand”. “Whilst geopolitical tensions could still create volatility, the market may experience a bearish trend in the near term as market participants digest recent gains and reconsider supply and demand dynamics,” Pavel stated in the analysis. He went on to note, however, that “any significant escalation in geopolitical risks or unexpected strength in demand could provide further upside momentum for crude prices”. In a report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team on Tuesday, Thierry Wizman, Global FX & Rates Strategist at Macquarie Group, highlighted that “oil prices aren’t rising again today”. “That’s not because peace has broken out in the Mid-East. In fact, peace seems more elusive,” he said in the report. “Ominously, Israel’s defense minister is in the U.S. this week, ostensibly to discuss Israel’s response to Iran’s attack of last week. The visit may mean there’ll be no response until those discussions end,” he added. “But it makes the size and scope of the response feel no less significant. As for oil, there’s the premise that Iran’s oil infrastructure may be attacked, of course, but there’s also the threat that Iran may deliberately blockade the Strait of Hormuz in response to Israel’s response,” he continued. “The prospect that oil prices rise to $100 per barrel is, no doubt, intended to put pressure on Israel to refrain from attacking Iran at all,” Wizman went on to state. In the report, Wizman said that, if oil prices do end lower today, it will probably be because of China, not the Mid-East. “Traders overnight were said to have been let down by the lack of emphasis from China policymakers on pushing more fiscal stimulus through the system,” he stated in the report. In a separate market analysis sent to Rigzone earlier today, Antonio Di Giacomo, a Senior Market Analyst at XS.com, said oil prices saw a significant increase on Monday. “This rise is due to growing tensions in the Middle East following an attack by Iran on Israel. Brent, one of the main international benchmarks in the oil market, reached the $81.10 per barrel mark, while WTI rose to $78.42 per barrel,” he highlighted in the analysis. “This upward trend reflects market concerns about the impact a prolonged conflict in the region could have on the global oil supply,” he went on to state.

Surprise Crude Inventory Spike Slams Oil Prices --Crude oil inventories in the United States rose by a shocking 10.9 million barrels for the week ending October 4, according to The American Petroleum Institute (API). Analysts had expected a build of 1.95 million barrels.For the week prior, the API reported a 1.5-million-barrel decrease in crude inventories.So far this year, crude oil inventories have slumped by just 5 million barrels since the beginning of the year, according to API data. On Tuesday, the Department of Energy (DoE) reported that crude oil inventories in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) rose by 0.3 million barrels as of October 4. SPR inventories are now at 382.9 million barrels, a figure that reflects an increase of more than 35 million from its multi-decade low last summer, yet 252 million from when President Biden took office. At the current rate of replenishment, it will take more than five years to return to January 2020 levels.Oil prices shrugged off what is now becoming rather for the markets—threats of a possible supply shock in the wake of continued conflict in the Middle East. WTI and Brent fell sharply ahead of the API data release as traders took handsome profits from the recent oil rally and their kept their eyes on soft demand from China. At 3:39 pm ET, Brent crude was trading down $3.46 (-4.28%) on the day at $77.47—a nearly $4 per barrel gain from this time last week. The U.S. benchmark WTI was also trading sharply down on the day by $3.29 (-4.26%) at $73.85—a $3.70 per barrel gain from this time last Tuesday.

WTI Holds Losses After Large Crude Build, Huge Gasoline Draw -Oil prices are falling once again as hope for more China demand (stimmies) fade and last night's huge crude inventory build reported by API (likely storm-related).The slide in prices overshadowed nervousness about an escalation of hostilities in the Middle East, particularly a possible retaliatory strike by Israel on Iran’s oil facilities following a missile barrage last week.“Heightened geopolitical risks have supported oil prices and appear likely to continue to do so,” Morgan Stanley analysts including Martijn Rats and Charlotte Firkins said in a note.“However, the underlying balance has continued to weaken.”So, the question is, will the official data confirm API's big builds...API

• Crude +10.9mm (+1.95mm exp)
• Cushing +1.359mm
• Gasoline -557k
• Distillates -2.59mm

DOE

• Crude +5.81mm (+1.95mm exp) - biggest build since April 2024
• Cushing +1.247mm
• Gasoline -6.304mm - biggest draw since Nov 2023
• Distillates -3.124mm

The official data confirmed API's reported large crude build (though smaller) but it also showed a huge gasoline draw (largest since Nov 2023) as we suspect Hurricane Helene had some significant impact in the supply chain...

Oil falls as swelling US supply counters Middle East and hurricane risks (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Wednesday after U.S. data showed rising crude inventories, but losses were limited by the risk of Iranian supply disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict and Hurricane Milton in the U.S.Brent crude futures settled at $76.58 a barrel, falling 60 cents, or 0.8%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures settled down 33 cents or 0.5%, at $73.24 a barrel.Crude inventories jumped by 5.8 million barrels to 422.7 million barrels last week, the Energy Information Administration said, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 2 million-barrel rise.The build was smaller than estimated on Tuesday by trade group American Petroleum Institute, which also limited declines in oil prices, Larger-than-expected drawdowns in gasoline and distillates also helped soften the impact to prices,."There's a bullish element in the gasoline number, which might have been a rebound from the hurricane," , referring to Hurricane Helene, which struck the U.S. late last month.The country is bracing for a second major storm, Hurricane Milton, which spawned tornadoes and lashing rain hours ahead of its expected landfall in Florida on Wednesday. The storm has already driven up demand for gasoline in the state, with about a quarter of fuel stations selling out of supplies, which has helped support crude prices.Markets remained on edge about a potential Israeli attack on Iranian oil infrastructure, even after oil prices tumbled by more than 4% on Tuesday on a possible Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire deal being reached.U.S. President Joe Biden spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about Israel's plans concerning oil-producer Iran in a call on Wednesday. Neither the White House nor Netanyahu's office provided details of the discussion. "We're still on tenterhooks with the Middle East situation," "Speculation of a strike on Iran is worth about $5 a barrel."Even with threats to the oil-producing Middle Eastern region top of mind, economic problems in top crude importer China made it difficult for prices to advance."Despite the current heightened tensions in the Middle East, it is easy to forget that the oil market is very much vulnerable to corrections due to the ongoing bearish macro narrative centered on China," China said on Tuesday it was "fully confident" of achieving its full-year growth target but refrained from introducing stronger fiscal steps, disappointing investors who had banked on more support for the economy.Investors have worried about slow growth dampening fuel demand in China, the world's largest crude importer.Weak demand continues to underpin the fundamental outlook. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Tuesday downgraded its demand forecast for 2025 on weakening economic activity in China and North America.

Oil prices edge up on US storm and Israel-Iran fears - Oil prices edged higher on Thursday, underpinned by a spike in fuel demand as a major storm barrelled into Florida, with Middle East supply risks also in focus. Brent crude futures rose 58 cents, or 0.8%, to $77.16 a barrel by 0847 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were up 61 cents, or 0.8%, at $73.85. In the United States, the world's largest oil producer and consumer, Hurricane Milton made landfall in Florida, where about a quarter of fuel stations sold out of gasoline, helping to support crude prices. Prices spiked this month after Iran launched more than 180 missiles against Israel on Oct. 1, raising the prospect of retaliation against Iranian oil facilities. With Israel yet to respond, crude benchmarks have eased once more and remained relatively flat through the week. But investors remained wary, given Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant promised that any strike against Iran would be "lethal, precise and surprising". U.S. President Joe Biden spoke to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about Israel's plans concerning Iran, though ANZ analysts said there is growing concern that Israel's allies have little influence on its strategy. Even with threats to the oil-producing Middle Eastern region in the spotlight, demand concerns continue to underpin the fundamental outlook. "Without a genuine demand excess or supply shortage, the risk will remain skewed to the downside. Even if the Israeli bellicose rhetoric is embodied in an Israeli assault on Iranian oil infrastructure, the price reaction could be brief, albeit violent," said Tamas Varga at oil broker PVM. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Tuesday downgraded its demand forecast for 2025 on weakening economic activity in China and North America. EIA data on Wednesday showed crude inventories last week built more than expected by analysts in a Reuters poll.

The Market Remained Concerned Over the Escalating Tensions Between Israel and Iran - The oil market on Thursday traded within its recent trading range after the market retraced its previous losses as the market remained concerned over the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. The market posted a low of $73.26 on the opening and began its upward trend for the day. The crude market remained well supported after Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Wednesday promised that any strike against Iran would be “lethal, precise and surprising.” The market was further supported as Israeli forces fired on positions used by U.N. peacekeepers in Lebanon on Wednesday and Thursday, as Israel warned Lebanese civilians not to return to homes in the south and pursued a widening offensive against the Iran-backed Hezbollah group. The market retraced more than 62% of its move from a low of $71.53 to a high of $78.46 as it rallied to a high of $76.24 on the close. The November WTI contract settled up $2.61 at $75.85 and the December Brent contract settled up $2.82 at $79.40. The product markets ended the session sharply higher, with the heating oil market settling up 7.4 cents at $2.3509 and the RB market settling up 8.45 cents at $2.1509. Three Gulf sources said Gulf states are lobbying the U.S. to stop Israel from attacking Iran’s oil sites because they are concerned their own oil facilities could come under fire from Tehran’s proxies if the conflict escalates. The sources stated that as part of their attempts to avoid being caught in the crossfire, Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar are also refusing to let Israel fly over their airspace for any attack on Iran and have conveyed this to Washington. A White House National Security Council spokesperson said the U.S. is deeply concerned about reports that Israeli forced fired on U.N. peacekeepers’ positions in southern Lebanon and is pressing Israel for details on the incidents. The North Dakota Pipeline Authority estimated that oil production in North Dakota fell by 60,000-90,000 bpd due to the ongoing wildfires. It said the associated wellhead natural gas production is estimated to be down 0.17-0.27 bcfd. Libya’s National Oil Corporation said that it has restored production close to levels before the country’s central bank crisis, reaching 1.22 million bpd on Thursday. Last week, Libya’s eastern-based government and Tripoli-based NOC announced that all oilfields and export terminals had been reopened after a dispute over leadership of the central bank was resolved. Oil and condensate production levels reached 1.217 million bpd on Thursday, up from 1.158 million bpd on Wednesday. NOC says that Libya produced about 1.3 million barrels per day before output at the Sharara, El Feel and Essider oilfields was halted in late August and early September. U.S. consumer prices increased slightly more than expected in September, but the annual increase in inflation was the smallest in more than 3-1/2 years, potentially keeping the Federal Reserve on track to cut interest rates again next month. The Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said the Consumer Price Index increased 0.2% in September after gaining 0.2% in August. In the 12 months through September, the CPI increased 2.4%. That was the smallest year-on-year rise since February 2021 and followed a 2.5% advance in August. Analysts had forecast the CPI increasing 0.1% and rising 2.3% year-on-year. Excluding the food and energy components, the CPI increased 0.3% in September after rising 0.3% in August. In the 12 months through September, the core CPI increased 3.3%. That followed a 3.2% gain in August.

Oil Eases After Choppy Trading Amid Israel-Iran Tensions -Oil eased following a day of choppy trading as investors booked profits and unwound some positions ahead of Israel’s expected retaliation against Iran and the potential rollout of fresh economic stimulus in China. West Texas Intermediate settled below $76 a barrel while Brent settled near $79 a barrel. Both benchmarks jumped more than 3% on Thursday. Israel’s government has yet to decide how to retaliate against Iran for a missile attack last week, according to an official familiar with the matter. While US President Joe Biden has counseled against an attack on energy facilities in the third-largest OPEC producer, the lingering possibility is leaving investors on edge. Tumult in the Middle East has boosted price volatility and prompted hedge funds to bolster net-long positions. “We are waiting for the event on Israel’s retaliation, with no one really sure what they are going to do,” said Scott Shelton, an energy specialist at TP ICAP Group Plc. “Most of the people I know who trade actively are sidelined and waiting for the retaliation rather than actively getting in front of it.” Meanwhile, the US is expanding its sanctions on Iran’s oil and petrochemicals sectors in response to the country’s Oct. 1 ballistic-missile attack on Israel, according to a statement from the Treasury Department. Beijing has scheduled a briefing for this weekend to give more details on a potential stimulus package. Faltering oil consumption and slowing economic growth in the world’s biggest crude importer have weighed on market sentiment this year. In yet another sign of flailing demand, BP Plc said lower margins from processing crude will hit earnings by $400 million to $600 million, adding to similar projections from Exxon Mobil Corp. and Shell Plc. WTI for November delivery fell 0.4% to settle at $75.56 a barrel. Brent for December settlement slid 0.5% to settle at $79.04 a barrel.

Oil settles down on Florida fuel demand worries, Mideast risk drives weekly gains (Reuters) - Oil prices settled lower on Friday but rose for the second straight week as investors weighed factors such as possible supply disruptions in the Middle East and Hurricane Milton's impact on fuel demand in Florida. Brent crude oil futures settled down 36 cents, or 0.45%, at $79.04 a barrel. EDT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled down 29 cents, 0.38%, to $75.56 per barrel. For the week however, both benchmarks rose by more than 1%. Money managers raised their net long positions on Brent crude by 123,226 contracts to 165,008 in the week to Oct. 8, according to the Intercontinental Exchange. "Markets can feel the tension, as Israel contemplates the size and form for their response to Iran's massive missile attack. If Israel destroys Iran's oil & gas infrastructure, prices will rise," Crude benchmarks spiked so far this month after Iran launched more than 180 missiles against Israel on Oct. 1, raising the prospect of retaliation against Iranian oil facilities. Israel has yet to respond. "$75 per barrel for WTI is sort of the fair value area for elevated tensions," Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant has said that any strike against Iran would be "lethal, precise and surprising." "We need to wait and see how Israel responds, but I think until that point the oil market will keep a risk premium," Iran is backing several groups fighting Israel, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen. Gulf states are lobbying Washington to stop Israel from attacking Iran's oil sites out of concern their own oil facilities could come under fire from Tehran's allies if the conflict escalates, three Gulf sources told Reuters.Weighing on prices, Hurricane Milton plowed into the Atlantic Ocean on Thursday after cutting a destructive path across Florida, killing at least 10 people and leaving millions without power.Gasoline shortages gripped the state earlier in the week as drivers stocked up ahead of the hurricane, with nearly a quarter of 7,912 gasoline stations in Florida out of fuel by Wednesday morning, but the destruction could go on to dampen fuel consumption in the hurricane's aftermath. Florida is the third-largest gasoline consumer in the U.S., but there are no refineries in the state, making it dependent on waterborne imports. And reservations over high crude inventories and a possibly more gradual monetary easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve have also helped put the recent rally in oil prices on hold. On the supply side, Libya's national oil corporation (NOC) said on Friday it had restored oil production to levels before the country's central bank crisis as it reached 1.25 million barrels. Meanwhile, easing third quarter earnings for big oil may have also weighed on investor sentiment, with weak refining margins due to a slowdown in global demand for fuel and lower oil trading, putting a dent in BP's third-quarter profit by up to $600 million, the British oil major said on Friday.

Israeli Airstrikes Target Aid Trucks in Central Syria, Wound Three - Israeli attacks against Syria continued apace over the weekend, with strikes reported against humanitarian aid trucks in the Homs Province of Central Syria. The trucks were carrying food and blankets, along with medical aid, from the Iraqi Red Crescent. Details are still emerging. The attacks reportedly took place in an industrial area, near a car factory. Three members of the relief teams sent from Iraq were reported wounded in the strikes, and their condition is not at present clear.It has been reported that in the last 72 hours, some 150 trucks have entered Syria through Iraq’s Abu Kamal border crossing, and that the focus is to offer relief to the large number of Lebanese who have fled into Syria after the Israelis began ground invasions of Lebanese over the past week. Since Israel has been attacking Syria almost daily since then, it’s clear that they couldn’t simply flee from Lebanon to escape the onslaught.Israel has not commented on the attacks on aid shipments, and probably won’t do so, since such strikes would tend to be embarrassing to them to admit. Israeli media often speculates that such attacks are because Iran is smuggling arms under the guise of humanitarian aid, though clearly it being humanitarian aid isn’t much of an obstacle to Israeli attacks.

Israel Jails American Journalist for Reporting on Iranian Missile Strikes - Jeremy Loffredo, an American journalist for The Grayzone, has been arrested by the Israeli military for his reporting inside Israel.Loffredo was jailed just a few days after releasing a report on Iranian missile strikes in Israel, information the Israeli military has been trying to censor. According to the Israeli news site Ynet, because of the report, Loffredo faces charges of “aiding the enemy during wartime and providing information to the enemy.” Representatives from the US embassy attended a hearing on a police request to extend Loffredo’s detention, but so far, the US government has been silent and has not publicly called for his release.The report Loffredo released before being arrested by the Israeli military“Israel is detaining and prosecuting an American journalist for doing journalism. Will his media colleagues defend him?” Aaron Maté, a journalist for The Grayzone, wrote on X.An independent journalist who was arrested alongside Loffredo but has since been released said they were beaten and blindfolded by the Israeli military.“Today I was beaten, kidnapped, blindfolded and taken to a military base by the Israeli Occupation Forces, together with 4 other journalists,” the journalist, Andrey X, wrote on X. “Two of us were held for 11 hours without charges, my phone was confiscated (stolen), and one of us is still in custody.”British journalist Kit Klarenberg, a contributor to The Grayzone, is asking people to contact the US embassy in Israel (JerusalemACS@state.gov) and urge pressure on the Israeli government to release Loffredo.

Israel seeks to reshape Middle East, with force and with US backing --One year after Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack, Israel is reshaping the Middle East by force, taking the fight to Iran and its proxies with the help of the United States — despite pleas from the Biden administration for diplomacy. While President Biden is warning Israel against a major attack on Iran in retaliation for a missile barrage last week, Israel’s ambassador to the United States is warning “a long and arduous path” lies ahead. “Following the carnage of Oct. 7, all our enemies in the region and globally smelled the blood, sensed weakness and vulnerability and rose to hit us,” said Michael Herzog, Israel’s envoy in Washington, during a memorial ceremony Monday at the Israeli Embassy. “One year on, the story of this war is also of Israel rising to its feet, turning the tide, restoring its deterrence and dismantling the ring of fire that Iran has built around us.” The Israeli ambassador’s message was delivered in front of national security adviser Jake Sullivan, deputy national security adviser Jon Finer, and White House coordinator for the Middle East Brett McGurk — officials who were blindsided last month when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly rejected a cease-fire proposal with Hezbollah the White House had coordinated with Jerusalem behind closed doors. Since then, Israel has forged ahead with its plans to dismantle Hezbollah, weaken Iran and suppress Hamas in the Gaza Strip — largely without consulting the United States beforehand, but relying heavily on military and political support from Washington. “It must be said, we wouldn’t be where we are today were it not for the steadfast support of our close friend and ally the United States of America,” Herzog told the assembled diplomats, along with members of Congress from both sides of the aisle. The episode demonstrates how the Israeli government, under Netanyahu, is reframing its war aims toward a vision of long-lasting regional dominance. “This is our war of existence — ‘the war of redemption.’ This is how I would like the war to be called officially,” Netanyahu said during a Cabinet meeting on Monday. “We are changing the security reality in our region, for our children and for our future, in order to ensure that what happened on Oct. 7 does not recur. Never again.” While rocket fire still emanates from the Gaza Strip and Hamas holds 101 hostages it kidnapped from Israel on Oct. 7, the Israeli military has shifted operations to take on the threats from Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Israel estimates Hezbollah has fired 9,500 rockets into the country since Oct. 8, 2023, and considers the group its most dangerous, proximate adversary, with a well-stocked, organized and disciplined fighting force. But the exact goals of Israel’s operations against Hezbollah are not entirely clear. United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 calls, generally, for the absence of weapons between Israel’s northern border and Lebanon’s Litani River. But Netanyahu, in a speech Tuesday night, called for the Lebanese to “stand up and take their country back” from Hezbollah.

Israeli Strikes Kill Over 100 Children in Lebanon in 11 Days - At least 100 children have been killed by Israeli strikes in Lebanon since Israel dramatically escalated its attacks on the country on September 23, the UN’s child relief agency, UNICEF, said Friday. Citing Lebanon’s Health Ministry, UNICEF said 127 children have been killed by Israeli strikes in Lebanon over the past year, with more than 100 dying between September 23 and October 4. Israeli attacks on Lebanon have wounded at least 890 children since October 8, 2023. “Doctors tell us of treating children who are bloodied, bruised, and broken, suffering both physically and mentally. Many are experiencing anxiety, flashbacks, and nightmares related to explosions. No child should be subjected to such horrific situations,” said Adele Khodr, UNICEF’s director for the Middle East. The number of child casualties in Lebanon has likely risen since Friday as Israel continues to pound Lebanon. Israel launched its heaviest bombing yet on Beirut from Saturday into Sunday, with about 30 strikes reported in Dahiyeh, the city’s southern suburb. Lebanon’s children have also been suffering a massive displacement crisis in the wake of Israel’s escalations. Lebanon’s government has said more than 1.2 million people have been displaced, including over 400,000 children. Similar to the Israeli assault on Gaza, Israeli warplanes have bombed evacuation routes in Lebanon, including the Masnaa border crossing, which connects Lebanon and Syria. Israeli strikes on the crossing early Friday severely damaged the road, forcing Lebanese fleeing into Syria to travel by foot.

IDF warns of operations against Hezbollah along Lebanon's southern coast -Israel’s military on Monday said it would soon launch operations on Lebanon’s southern coast, which would mark a further escalation of its fight against Hezbollah. “Urgent warning to vacationers, beachgoers, and anyone using boats for fishing or any other use from the Awali River line southward, the IDF will soon operate in the maritime area against Hezbollah’s terrorist activities,” Avichay Adraee, the military’s Arabic spokesperson, warned in a post on the social platform X. “For your safety, refrain from being in the sea or on the beach from now until further notice. Being on the beach and boat movements in the area of ​​the Awali River line southward pose a danger to your life.” The warning, which applies to a 36-mile stretch along the Mediterranean, comes on the anniversary of the Hamas-led attack into Israel from the Gaza strip, which killed nearly 1,200 people — the deadliest attack in the country’s history. The Oct. 7, 2023, raid — which also saw the abduction of 250 people, 100 of whom are still being held as hostages — set off a brutal air and ground campaign against Hamas in Gaza and sparked a simmering conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon that has rapidly escalated in recent weeks. Israel has been trading cross-border fire with Hezbollah over the past year, but last month stepped up its bombing across Lebanon and began a limited ground campaign just over its shared border, threatening to tip the region into a wider war. On Monday, Israeli fighter jets hit Hezbollah positions inland in southern Lebanon with more than 120 strikes in an hour. Separate from its coastal warning, Israel’s military also told residents in several neighborhoods south of Beirut to evacuate Monday night local time. “For your safety and the safety of your families, you must evacuate these buildings and the surrounding ones immediately and move at least 500 meters away from them,” Adraee said in a post on X that showed a map of the area and marked buildings. The ongoing Israeli strikes — which killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on Sept. 27, killed some 1,400 people and displaced another 1.2 million — have drawn the ire of Iran, which last week hurled a barrage of some 180 missiles at Israel. Israel’s leaders have vowed to respond to the strikes. In a speech to mark the anniversary of the Hamas attacks, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed that Israel will “continue to fight.” “As long as the enemy threatens our existence and the peace of our country, we will continue to fight,” Netanyahu said at a ceremony in Ofakim, Israel. “As long as our hostages are still in Gaza, we will continue to fight.”

Israeli Strikes Kill 36 in Lebanon as Netanyahu Threatens To Turn the Country Into Gaza ---Israeli airstrikes continued to pound Lebanon on Tuesday, killing at least 36 people and wounding 150, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu threatened to destroy the country like he has Gaza.In a video he posted on social media, Netanyahu said he was addressing the people of Lebanon and told them to “save” the country of Lebanon or face the “destruction and suffering” that’s been inflicted on Gaza.“You have an opportunity to save Lebanon before it falls into the abyss of a long war that will lead to destruction and suffering like we see in Gaza,” Netanyahu said. “I say to you, the people of Lebanon: free your country from Hezbollah so this war can end.”Israeli strikes were reported across Lebanon on Tuesday, including in Dahiyeh, Beirut’s southern suburb that has been heavily targeted. Lebanon’s Health Ministry said Israeli strikes in Lebanon have killed 2,119 people in the country and injured 10,019 since October 2023, with the majority of the casualties inflicted since Israel escalated in mid-September.Also on Tuesday, Israel sent a fourth division of ground troops into southern Lebanon, where its forces have faced stiff resistance from Hezbollah. According to Middle East Eye, based on recent mobilizations, there may be 15,000 Israeli troops inside Lebanon.

Israel Has Killed Nearly 2,100 in Lebanon Since Last Year - Israeli strikes in Lebanon have killed at least 2,083 people and wounded 9,869 others since October 8, 2023, the Lebanese Health Ministry said on Monday.The majority of the deaths occurred since mid-September, when Israel dramatically escalated its attacks on Lebanon, first by blowing up Hezbollah pagers and walkie-talkies, then by ramping up airstrikes.The Health Ministry said since September 23, Israel has killed 1,251 people in Lebanon. The exact breakdown is unclear, but the casualties includemany civilians, and over 100 children have been killed since September.Al Jazeera reported Monday that Israel expanded its attacks on southern Lebanon and Dahiyeh, the southern suburb of Beirut that has been heavily targeted. One Israeli strike killed 10 fire fighters in the southern Lebanon town of Baraachit.Hezbollah also fired a barrage of rockets into Israel on Monday, hitting an area near the port city of Haifa. At least 10 people were wounded by the Hezbollah attack, which marked the first strike on Haifa since Hezbollah and Israel began trading fire across the border last year.Ground fighting between Israeli troops and Hezbollah fighters continues in south Lebanon. So far, Israel has confirmed that 11 of its soldiers have been killed on the ground.Israel’s assault on Lebanon has put Irish soldiers stationed as part of the UN’s peacekeeping mission in southern Lebanon, known as UNIFIL, in a dangerous situation. Reports say fighting between Hezbollah militants and Israeli troops took place just two kilometers from the Irish peacekeepers’ outpost, known as Post 6-52. Both the UN and Ireland have rejected an Israeli request to remove the peace keepers from the area.

Israeli Forces Kill 56 More Palestinians in the Gaza Strip - Gaza’s Health Ministry said Tuesday that Israeli forces killed at least 56 Palestinians and wounded another 278 in the previous 24-hour period as Israel continues to launch strikes across the Strip.The ministry said the latest violence brings its recorded death toll since October 2023 to 41,965 and the number of wounded to 97,590. The figures only include injured and dead Palestinians who arrived at hospitals or morgues and don’t account for the estimated 10,000 people who are missing and presumed dead under the rubble or indirect deaths caused by the Israeli siege.In an open letter to President Biden and Vice President Harris, 99 American healthcare workers who volunteered in Gaza said they believe over 118,000 Palestinians have been killed, a number that accounts for starvation deaths and other indirect causes.Israeli strikes on Tuesday included attacks on the Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza. On Sunday, Israel issued a new evacuation order for all of north Gaza, which signaled the start of an ethnic cleansing plan that has been reviewed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.The Palestinian news agency Wafa reported that the streets of Jabalia are strewn with the bodies of dead Palestinians. “Eyewitnesses said that a number of civilians were lying on the ground in the streets and alleys of Jabalia camp in the northern Gaza Strip, as civil defense crews were unable to rescue them due to the continuous Israeli occupation bombing,” the news agency said.The Cradle reported that the Qassams Brigade, the armed wing of Hamas,said its fighters were engaged in “fierce clashes” with Israeli forces in the Jabalia camp.An Al Jazeera journalist reporting from Jabalia said the Israeli military was ordering civilians to leave the camp but was also blocking the way out. “The army is blocking the way out. We are all trapped here. We don’t know what will happen in the next hours,” said Moath al-Kahlout.Heavy Israeli strikes were also reported in central Gaza in the refugee camps of Nuseirat and Bureij. Israel also hit targets in southern Gaza, withWafa reporting at least eight Palestinians were killed by a drone strike that targeted civilians gathered at a water filling station.

Israel orders 3 hospitals to be evacuated in northern Gaza: Health Ministry - The Israeli army ordered the evacuation of patients and staff at three hospitals in the northern Gaza Strip, the enclave’s Health Ministry said Tuesday. Israel “demands the evacuation of Kamal Adwan Hospital, the Indonesian Hospital, and Al-Awda Hospital from patients and health personnel,” it said in a statement. Israeli troops arrested "a paramedic who accompanied a critical care patient during their transfer from Kamal Adwan Hospital despite prior coordination,” according to the statement, that noted the army is besieging the Kamal Adwan Hospital and firing at its administrative headquarters. The army threatened the hospitals with "destruction, killing, and arrest" if they did not evacuate, similar to what happened at the Shifa Hospital in Gaza City which has been besieged for weeks at a time since last November, it added. The ministry warned that the Kamal Adwan Hospital could stop functioning within hours because of a lack of fuel. Gaza health officials pleaded for the "serious protection for health institutions and their staff, especially in the northern Gaza Strip." Hossam Abu Safia, director of the Kamal Adwan Hospital, said in an audio recording sent to reporters that "the Israeli army has given them 24 hours to completely evacuate the hospital of patients and health staff." "The army communicated directly and threatened us, saying we must evacuate the hospital or we would put ourselves in danger,” he said. Abu Safia described the Israeli move as dangerous, threatening the "collapse of the health care system in the northern Gaza Strip" and expressed concerns about a potential new plan to displace residents of northern Gaza by incapacitating the health care system. The Israeli army announced Sunday the beginning of a military operation in Jabalia, claiming it was to "prevent Hamas from regaining strength in the area," following hours of fierce attacks on the eastern and western areas of northern Gaza in the most intense fighting since May. Witnesses reported that Israeli ground military vehicles reached areas in northwestern Gaza. Earlier Tuesday, the Israeli army warned Palestinians to evacuate their homes in Jabalia town and its camp and head south through a "safe corridor," while the Gaza Interior Ministry cautioned residents about complying because it is "deception and lies." Israel has continued a brutal offensive on Gaza following an attack by Hamas last October, despite a UN Security Council resolution calling for an immediate cease-fire.

New Israeli Assault on North Gaza Signals Start of Ethnic Cleansing Plan - The Israeli military has launched a fresh assault on northern Gaza and ordered all Palestinian civilians living in the north to head south, signaling Israel may be enacting an ethnic cleansing plan that has been reviewed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.Known as the “general’s plan” since it was drawn up by retired IDF generals, the plan would result in the complete ethnic cleansing of Palestinians from areas in Gaza north of the Netzarim Corridor, a strip of land controlled by the Israeli military that separates Gaza City and other parts of the north from the south. Itsik Zuaret, a reporter for Israel’s public broadcaster Kan, said the general’s plan was underway. “In the future, the entire northern area of ​​the Gaza Strip will be cleansed according to the general’s plan,” he wrote on X.The first step of the plan is to transfer the estimated 300,000 Palestinian civilians out of northern Gaza, then impose a full siege on the north to starve out remaining Hamas fighters and other Palestinians who remain. Northern Gaza would be declared a “closed military zone,” meaning anyone who remains will be targeted by the IDF.Since Israel has bombed so-called “safe zones” throughout the war and the tent camps in the south are already extremely overcrowded, many Palestinian civilians are expected to ignore the new evacuation order. According to Al Jazeera, some Palestinians have started to head south, but Palestinian authorities are calling on civilians not to listen to the Israeli evacuation order.“Israeli claims about the presence of safe zones in southern Gaza are lies as Israel commits crimes and massacres in all areas of the enclave,” Gaza’s Interior Ministry said. “We call on citizens in northern Gaza to ignore Israeli threats.”Israeli forces are currently focusing their renewed assault in northern Gaza on the Jabalia refugee camp and have sent tanks into the area for the first time in months. At least 17 people, including nine children, were killed by Israeli attacks on Jabalia overnight Saturday into Sunday.The Israeli military said it has surrounded Jabalia, while Palestinian Islamic Jihad said its fighters have targeted Israeli troops attempting to penetrate the camp.Under the general’s plan, once Israel kills and starves the remaining Palestinians in northern Gaza, it can use the same tactics in other areas of the Strip. Israel’s assault on Lebanon and the looming Israeli attack on Iran has taken much of the world’s attention away from the genocidal war in Gaza, giving Netanyahu an opportunity to enact the ethnic cleansing plan with less global scrutiny.

One year of genocide in Gaza - October 7 marks one year since Israel and the United States launched the genocide of the Palestinian people in Gaza, as the first phase of a regional war throughout the Middle East that is now metastasizing into a US-Israeli war on Iran. The toll of the war of extermination against the civilians of Gaza is staggering. Between 40,000 people, according to official figures, and 186,000 people, according to an estimate published in the authoritative medical journal The Lancet, have been killed by Israeli bullets, bombs, or through famine or preventable disease. The entire remaining population of Gaza is being starved by Israel, with “the highest number of people facing catastrophic hunger ever recorded by the Integrated Food Security Classification system—anywhere, anytime,” in the words of UN Secretary General António Guterres. Gaza, one of the most densely populated urban areas in the world, has been turned into a wasteland, with the majority of its buildings damaged or destroyed. Every single university in Gaza has been leveled, along with hospitals, schools and cultural centers in a calculated and deliberate sociocide. The official justification for the genocide and ethnic cleansing now underway is the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel by Hamas. The US media seeks to present the events of October 7 as a bolt from the blue, an unexpected sneak attack by Hamas that could not have been predicted and had no antecedent factors. But this narrative fell apart within a matter of months. In December 2023, the New York Times published a report revealing that the Israeli government was in possession of the exact document that laid out “point by point” the plan for the attack, which was “implemented with alarming accuracy.” Moreover, Israeli military and intelligence forces operating on the Gaza border were ordered to carry out a deliberate stand-down, with border units withdrawn to other areas of Israel just days ahead of the attack. The official United Nations inquiry on the October 7 attacks asserted “that Israeli authorities failed to protect civilians in southern Israel on almost every front.” It was likewise revealed that a significant portion of Israeli casualties were killed by Israeli forces themselves, who fired indiscriminately into settlements where Hamas was operating, and deliberately targeted Israelis being held hostage. According to an official United Nations inquiry into the attack, Israeli forces “applied the so-called ‘Hannibal Directive’ and killed... Israeli civilians.” On October 18, 2023, US President Joe Biden visited Israel to declare that the events of October 7 were “Israel’s 9/11.” Indeed, there is a deep connection between the two events. The September 11, 2001 attacks were seized upon by the Bush administration to launch the long-planned invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan, together with sweeping attacks on democratic rights at home. Likewise, the October 7 attacks were used as a pretext to implement plans long in the making. On September 22, 2023, just two weeks before the October 7 attacks, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu displayed a map at the United Nations General Assembly of the “new Middle East,” showing Israel encompassing all of the Palestinian territories, as part of a geopolitical framework with the US-aligned Middle Eastern states of Egypt, Sudan, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. One year later, it is clear that Israel and the United States seized upon the events of October 7 to implement this vision of what he called the “new Middle East.” When Netanyahu spoke again at the United Nations on September 27, near the one-year anniversary of the October 7 attacks, he again referenced “the map I presented here last year,” declaring, “With American support and leadership, I believe this vision can materialize much sooner than people think.” The war now unfolding in the Middle East is part of a decades-long effort by US imperialism to subjugate the whole of the Middle East, Central Asia and North Africa, a continuation of the 2001 invasion of Afghanistan, the 2003 invasion of Iraq, and the regime-change operations in Libya and Syria. If the ferocity and homicidal character of this effort have become more intense, it is because the US-Israeli genocidal war in the Middle East is part of the eruption of a global war against Russia and China—both nuclear-armed states—in which the Middle East is only one front.

Israeli Forces Kill 39 More Palestinians in the Gaza Strip - Gaza’s Health Ministry said Monday that Israeli forces killed at least 39 more Palestinians and wounded another 137 in the previous 24-hour period. The ministry’s figures are based on the number of dead and wounded Palestinians that arrive at hospitals and morgues. “The Israeli occupation commits 4 massacres against families in the Gaza Strip, of which 39 martyrs and 137 injuries arrived at hospitals during the past 24 hours,” the ministry wrote on Telegram.The latest violence brings the ministry’s recorded death toll since October 7, 2023, to 41,909 and the number of wounded to 97,303. The numbers are an undercount since they don’t account for the estimated Palestinians missing and presumed dead under the rubble or the indirect deaths caused by the Israeli siege.The ministry said in a statement marking one year of Israel’s genocidal war that it’s estimated “many times those who were martyred died as a result of the lack of medical services.” In an open letter to President Biden and Vice President Harris, 99 American healthcare workers who volunteered in Gaza said they believe over 118,000 Palestinians have been killed, a number that accounts for starvation deaths and other indirect causes.The Israeli military on Monday issued a new evacuation order for the southern city of Khan Younis, claiming a rocket attack that targeted central Israel was launched from there. Hamas’s armed wing, al-Qassam Brigades, took credit for the attack. Israeli warplanes struck Khan Younis as Palestinian civilians were fleeing the city. Nowhere is safe in Gaza as Israel has repeatedly targeted so-called “safe zones” throughout the past year.Israeli forces also launched artillery strikes on the Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza, killing at least eight and wounding dozens. On Sunday, Israel ordered all remaining Palestinians in northern Gaza to head south,signaling the start of an ethnic cleansing plan that’s been reviewed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Israel Kills 45 More Palestinians in Gaza, Escalates in Northern Gaza - Gaza’s Health Ministry said Wednesday that Israeli forces have killed at least 45 Palestinians and wounded 130 in the previous 24-hour period as Israel is working to cleanse northern Gaza of Palestinians.The latest violence brings the ministry’s recorded death toll since October 7, 2023, to 42,010 and the number of wounded to 97,720. The figures do not include the estimated 10,000 Palestinians who are missing and presumed dead under the rubble.A group of American healthcare workers who volunteered in Gaza have saidthey believe over 118,000 Palestinians have been killed, a number that accounts for starvation deaths and other indirect causes.On Wednesday, the Israeli military escalated operations in northern Gaza, where it is carrying out an ethnic cleansing campaign based on an outline known as the “general’s plan.” On Sunday, the Israeli military ordered the estimated 300,000 Palestinians living in northern Gaza to head south.The renewed Israeli assault in the north has been focused on the Jabalia refugee camp. The Israeli military’s Arabic language spokesman issued a fresh evacuation order for the camp on Wednesday.“We reiterate our call that you in the Jabalia camp evacuate your homes and shelters immediately,” the spokesman said. “This is your chance. Move now without delay from your shelters and homes to the southern Gaza Strip.”While the Israeli military has been ordering Palestinians to leave Jabalia, it has also been firing at those trying to flee. CNN reported on Tuesday that Israeli drones were shooting Palestinians who were evacuating.“Drones were firing at everyone passing by on the road,” Mohammad Sultan, an eyewitness, told CNN. “Three people were shot right in front of me. My brother and I tried to help the injured get to the hospitals, but a little girl was shot in the neck, and her father was also injured.”Israel has also ordered the evacuation of all patients and medical staff from three hospitals in northern Gaza: the Kamal Adwan Hospital, the Indonesian Hospital, and the Al-Awda Hospital.

Israeli Strikes Kill 28 Palestinians Sheltering at School in Gaza - On Thursday, Israeli strikes targeted a school-turned-shelter for displaced Palestinians in Deir al-Balah, central Gaza, killing at least 28 and wounding 54.Gaza’s Health Ministry said the number of dead and wounded was based on bodies and injured people who were brought to hospitals and morgues, meaning the toll could rise.The breakdown of the casualties is unclear, but footage and photos of the aftermath of the attack show many women and children were killed and wounded. “Children and women were torn to pieces by the intensity of the strike,” said Al Jazeera reporter Tareq Abu Azzoum.“I saw with my own eyes lots of bodies that were torn to pieces, making it quite hard to identify them unless family members managed to find out who they were from some signs in their clothing in the hospital morgue,” Azzoum added. Nahed al-Zaneen, a Palestinian who teaches displaced children at tents outside of the Rafadi school, told Middle East Eye that he was just meters away from the blast. “I get out, and all I see is shreds of bodies all over the floor. Heads blown up, innocent children scattered across the floor,” he said.As usual, the Israeli military claimed it targeted a Hamas “command and control center” but offered no evidence for the claim. Schools sheltering displaced Palestinians have become frequent targets of the Israeli military.Strikes continued across other parts of Gaza on Thursday, including in north Gaza, where Israeli forces are trying to cleanse the entire area of Palestinians. Gaza’s Health Ministry said at least 55 Palestinians were killed and 166 were wounded in the previous 24-hour period, bringing its death toll since last October to 42,065 and the number of wounded to 97,886. A group of American healthcare workers who volunteered in Gaza have said they believe over 118,000 Palestinians have been killed, a number that accounts for starvation deaths and other indirect causes.

Israeli Snipers Routinely, Deliberately Shoot Palestinian Kids In The Head - Caitlin Johnstone -- There’s yet another doctor testimonial about Israeli forces constantly shooting Palestinian children in the head, this one published in The New York Times. The report, titled “65 Doctors, Nurses and Paramedics: What We Saw in Gaza,” begins as follows:“I worked as a trauma surgeon in Gaza from March 25 to April 8. I’ve volunteered in Ukraine and Haiti, and I grew up in Flint, Mich. I’ve seen violence and worked in conflict zones. But of the many things that stood out about working in a hospital in Gaza, one got to me: Nearly every day I was there, I saw a new young child who had been shot in the head or the chest, virtually all of whom went on to die. Thirteen in total.   “At the time, I assumed this had to be the work of a particularly sadistic soldier located nearby. But after returning home, I met an emergency medicine physician who had worked in a different hospital in Gaza two months before me. ‘I couldn’t believe the number of kids I saw shot in the head,’ I told him. To my surprise, he responded: ‘Yeah, me, too. Every single day.’” Numerous named medical staff who worked in Gaza then testify in the report about routine encounters with children who’d been shot in the head and chest by Israeli forces, as well as children and infants suffering from severe malnutrition and easily preventable infections.Such reports have been coming out all year. Because Israel has not been allowing foreign press into Gaza, medical staff have in many ways become the de facto western journalists on the ground in the enclave — and they are all saying the same thing. Back in July a group of 45 doctors and nurses who’d been working in Gazasigned an open letter to President Biden testifying that “every single signatory to this letter treated children in Gaza who suffered violence that must have been deliberately directed at them.” “Specifically, every one of us on a daily basis treated pre-teen children who were shot in the head and chest,” the letter continues. Also in July, Politico published an article by two American surgeons named Mark Perlmutter and Feroze Sidhwa titled “‘Nothing Prepared Us for What We Saw’: Two Weeks Inside a Gaza Hospital,” which contains the following passage:“We started seeing a series of children, preteens mostly, who’d been shot in the head. They’d go on to slowly die, only to be replaced by new victims who’d also been shot in the head, and who would also go on to slowly die. Their families told us one of two stories: the children were playing inside when they were shot by Israeli forces, or they were playing in the street when they were shot by Israeli forces.” In April an article titled “‘Not a normal war’: doctors say children have been targeted by Israeli snipers in Gaza” was published in The Guardian, citing nine doctors who’d worked in Gaza after October 7 who “reported treating a steady stream of children, elderly people and others who were clearly not combatants with single bullet wounds to the head or chest.”Forensic pathologists were able to identify bullets used by the Israeli military in these attacks on children:“The Guardian shared descriptions and images of gunshot wounds suffered by eight children with military experts and forensic pathologists. They said it was difficult to conclusively determine the circumstances of the shootings based on the descriptions and photos alone, although in some of the cases they were able to identify ammunition used by the Israeli military.”In February the Los Angeles Times published an article titled “I’m an American doctor who went to Gaza. What I saw wasn’t war — it was annihilation”. The author, a reconstructive surgeon named Irfan Galaria, writes as follows:“On one occasion, a handful of children, all about ages 5 to 8, were carried to the emergency room by their parents. All had single sniper shots to the head. These families were returning to their homes in Khan Yunis, about 2.5 miles away from the hospital, after Israeli tanks had withdrawn. But the snipers apparently stayed behind. None of these children survived.”

It's So, So Bad, And It's About To Get A Whole Lot Worse - Caitlin Johnstone -- Things are so, so bad in the middle east right now, and from the looks of things they’re about to get a whole lot worse. Israel is going full scorched-earth on northern Gaza in advancement of itslong-planned ethnic cleansing of the area. The IDF is besieging and attacking civilian populations throughout the north, and the UN World Food Programme reports that no food aid whatsoever has been allowed in so far this month.Hossam Shabat, one of the last remaining journalists in northern Gaza, reports the following on Twitter:“The Israeli occupation has besieged us in this area, which includes Beit Hanoun, Beit Lahia, and the Jabalia refugee camp, for the past eight days. Since October 1st, they have stopped all food, water, and medical supplies from entering. They have threatened hospitals to shut down, stopped fuel from entering in order for hospitals to operate, and are targeting anyone who moves. So far, 400 people have been killed. People are bleeding in the streets, and we can’t reach them.”Another post from Shabat:“Due to the Israeli occupation siege on Jabalia camp, most injuries caused by the occupation’s bullets and shelling lead to death, as there are no medical resources or capabilities available to effectively treat the wounded.”Another post, the most recent as of this writing:“We are literally living our final moments. O Allah, grant us a good end.”The western media have been working fanatically to facilitate these atrocities.     A CNN report on the World Food Programme’s findings titled “UN says no food has entered northern Gaza since start of October, putting 1 million people at risk of starvation” does not mention the word “Israel” until the twelfth paragraph, and then somehow manages to go the entire rest of the article without making it clear that Israel is blocking the food.  A BBC report describes Israel’s policy of laying total siege to a population of hundreds of thousands of civilians as merely “controversial”, with an amazingly delicate headline that reads “‘Surrender or starve’: Attack on Jabalia hints at controversial Israeli plan for northern Gaza”. In a recent interview on CNN, a doctor who worked in Gaza for two weekscorrected CNN anchor Kate Bolduan for absurdly referring to the results of Israel’s war crimes as a “humanitarian crisis”, saying “This is not a humanitarian crisis, Kate, and I’m gonna say it very clearly for your viewers to hear: this is genocide.”   In southern Lebanon, Israel has been deliberately targeting healthcare facilities so extensively that nearly half of the medical centers in areas of conflict have already been closed. More UN peacekeepers have been wounded by Israeli fire as Israel continues to deliberately target staff from the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon. The Israeli military is now saying they’re going to start attacking ambulances because the ambulances are Hezbollah. And as horrifying as both these developing stories are, they’re going to be shifted to the back burner as soon as Israel begins its planned attack on Iran. As we discussed previously, Iran has already said it will respond to any further attacks by Israel with attacks of its own, and that its days of restraint in this stand-off are over.The US now reportedly has boots on the ground in Israel, with American troops set to operate the THAAD anti-ballistic missile systems that are being sent by Israel’s superpower ally. It seems inevitable that the US will become further and further involved in this conflict the more Israel escalates against Iran, and nobody in the White House seems particularly invested in preventing it from doing so. And of course the mass media are helping to pave the way toward this next war as well. The Washington Post has published unverified documents that were given to them by the Israeli military which purport to show Hamas plotting to petition Iran for assistance in the October 7 attack, admitting all the way down in paragraph 14 that “the documents’ authenticity could not be definitively established.” The New York Times published its own report on the documents, which it claims it “verified” by asking the Israeli military and some Palestinian sources who aren’t even in Gaza if they appeared authentic.

A wave of desertions in Ukraine -This report on the growing wave of desertions in Ukraine was submitted to the WSWS from journalists of Assembly.org.ua. It documents crumbling front lines. While individual desertions are not a substitute for the development of a politically conscious movement by the working class, they indicate growing anti-war opposition among broad masses of Ukrainians who are being used as cannon fodder in the imperialist proxy war against Russia. The journalists, who have been forced into the underground by the dictatorial Zelensky regime, ask for donations to support their work at this link.