week ending Sep 5

Fed's Williams not swayed that a rate hike is the answer yet  -A key member of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy committee said he is not convinced that the central bank should be cutting interest rates just yet.

• Key takeaway: Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said there is no "unusual" broadening of the effects of higher energy prices and that inflation expectations remain well anchored, suggesting a "wait-and-see" approach is appropriate. 
• Expert quote: "I am actually seeing the trend in inflation moving slowly down as some of the effects of the tariffs kind of move into the rearview mirror. But we have to be data dependent. Have to keep watching that data." — Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams
• What's at stake: The Federal Open Market Committee's next meeting is scheduled for Sept. 15-16, and a majority of market participants believe the central bank will raise interest rates by 25 basis points.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said Wednesday that inflation expectations remain well anchored, suggesting a "wait-and-see" approach for monetary policy.

Fed Governor Waller indicates he will support holding rates steady at September meeting - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Thursday he is leaning toward keeping interest rates steady at the central bank’s September meeting provided there are no surprises from upcoming inflation data. In remarks that seem to contrast with statements last week from Chairman Kevin Warsh, Waller expressed confidence in the current inflation trends, saying that tariff impacts likely have been muted and higher energy prices haven’t had a substantial impact on other parts of the economy. While he conceded that inflation is “meaningfully above” the Fed’s 2% target, he noted that recent trends “suggest we are finally seeing some signs of disinflation.” “If this continues in the data due over the next two weeks, I would be inclined to support holding the target for the federal funds rate at its current setting,” Waller said in remarks for a Reuters interview. Market-implied odds for a rate hike at the Sept. 15-16 meeting dropped sharply following the comments, with traders now pricing in just a 48.4% probability, down about 15 percentage points from Wednesday, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch gauge. “I’m going to paraphrase John Lennon here: Give disinflation a chance. We can wait one meeting,” Waller said. “What’s the cost of waiting one meeting? Hiking 25 basis points, one meeting right now, is not going to bring the CPI down to 2%.” The policymaker did add caveats, noting that if there are any indications between now and the meeting, he could change course. “I judge that policy is currently only slightly restricting aggregate demand, and it may not take much acceleration in inflation to nudge me into supporting tighter policy,” Waller said. “If there is evidence that progress toward 2% inflation reversed in August, a small adjustment in our stance would help ensure that it resumes.” The only major inflation reports the Fed will get are the consumer and producer price indexes that the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release next week. Those two reports feed heavily into the Commerce Department’s personal consumption expenditures price index that the Fed uses as its main inflation barometer. The remarks come less than a week after Warsh said, during a speech at the Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, that recent softer monthly inflation readings “do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved.” If trends don’t cooperate, “we have work to do,” he added. While the statements differed little from the chairman’s prior remarks on inflation, markets took them as hawkish on rates and quickly priced in a strong possibility for a hike at the upcoming meeting. Waller, though, offered a different take. Though headline inflation was at 3.7% and core at 3.3% for July, he said the underlying trends are actually “better than the core numbers suggest” and the annual numbers “are not the best guide for where inflation is today.” He noted that the three-month inflation rate as measured by the Fed’s preferred gauge has slipped from 4.76% in February to 3.05% currently. “That is a considerable improvement, and the speed of this downward trajectory is encouraging,” he said. Waller said certain “nonmarket services prices” that are estimated rather than observed could be pushing the inflation numbers higher. Moreover, revisions to the way the Bureau of Economic Analysis computes the personal consumption expenditures price index are expected to take inflation readings issued earlier this year lower.

Fed's Waller: Underlying inflation might be lower than we think - Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller threw cold water on the idea that a federal funds rate increase is needed this month.

• Key insight: While markets had been favoring a federal funds rate hike this month, Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller believes there may be good reasons for the central bank to hold steady.
• Expert quote: "To paraphrase John Lennon, I'm willing to give disinflation a chance." —Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller
• Forward look: Waller, like other Fed officials, said his ultimate decision at the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting will depend on forthcoming employment and inflation readings.

The Federal Reserve governor said an upcoming change to the personal consumption expenditures index could show ongoing improvement in prices, building the case for leaving interest rates unchanged.

Warsh's words put markets at ease, but volatility remains -  — Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh did not mince words in his latest economic assessment: inflation is too high and it's up to the Fed to fix it.

• Key insight: Traders of bonds and futures contracts are favoring a rate hike after the Federal Reserve chair's speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming last week. The remarks appear to have repaired the central bank's credibility for the time being.
• Expert quote: "Markets appear to have taken these remarks as his intended signal that a discussion about a policy rate hike is clearly on the table for the September meeting." — Former Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida
• Forward Look: Economists and analysts are split about whether the hawkish rhetoric will actually result in tighter monetary policy. This week's jobs report and next week's inflation reading will likely shape the Federal Open Market Committee's thinking.

Many traders took the Federal Reserve chair's tough talk on inflation as a signal that the central bank is poised for a rate hike, but the corresponding dip in long-dated bonds proved short-lived.

The Fed Added $344B In Treasury Bills In A Year   -  The following analysis breaks down the Fed balance sheet in detail. It shows different parts of the balance sheet and how those amounts have changed. It also shows historical interest rate trends.The Fed has quietly been doing Quantitative Easing since February. The pace of accumulation has slowed in recent months, and was even negative in August. When QE was turned back on, it was intended for purchases of Bills to keep liquidity high. As shown below, this is still happening with the Fed accumulating $29B of Bills in August. The net drop came from MBS and 5-10 year notes rolling off.Zooming out to 10 years and grouping the data by year shows the next chart. What you should notice is how quickly the Fed will un-do all the “hard work” in reducing the balance sheet during the next crisis. It took 4 years to reduce the balance sheet about $2.2T. However, in 2020, it took a few months to grow the balance sheet by $3T and 2 years to grow it by $4.5T.So far this year, the Fed has increased the balance sheet by $90B. While this is a small increase relative to past years, it should be noted that the balance sheet is growing and not shrinking. This makes it harder for inflation to come down.The next time provides more detail on the Fed’s activities and its recent efforts to manage the balance sheet. The biggest thing to notice is how the Fed has increased the holdings of Bills by $344B over the last year! That is an increase that should not go unnoticed. Why is the Fed focused on buying Bills? Bills are typically the most liquid asset in the Treasury issuance list, so it’s confusing why the Fed has stepped in for liquidity reasons.  The weekly activity can be seen below. It’s very obvious in this chart to see the continued buying of Treasury Bills each week. Yields have been fluctuating within a band since Sept 2022, ranging mostly between 3.25% and 4.75%. That range was broken in June with 30-year rates breaking decisively over 5% and the 10-year breaking above 4.5%. This is why the Treasury has stepped into the market. They are seeing cracks in the bond market and it could have major implications. Figure: 6 Interest Rates Across Maturities The yield curve spread has also started to widen again which means investors are demanding more compensation for keeping dollars locked up for longer periods. Figure: 7 Tracking Yield Curve Inversion The chart below shows the current yield curve, the yield curve one month ago, and one year ago. Again, it is clear to see how the yield curve has started to steepen. This makes the Treasury’s job much harder. Perhaps the most concerning thing is the dropping interest in US Debt internationally. Total holdings of US Debt has actually fallen from the $9.4T peak seen in Q1. While the US treasury issues ever more debt, it is a very bad sign to see foreign holders not stepping in to buy. The chart below shows a breakdown of the bigger countries. China’s US Debt holdings have fallen to $630B, a drop of $100B since last year. The UK now holds more US Debt than China does. Japan holdings have basically been flat for the last decade floating between $1T and $1.25T. The Japanese cannot turn into sellers or it would add even more pain. This is why the US has stepped into the currency market as well. The final plot below takes a larger view of the balance sheet. It is clear to see how the usage of the balance sheet has changed since the Global Financial Crisis. This also highlights the rapid increase and steady decrease. The Fed can never actually shrink its balance sheet back to the previous state, it just does minor reductions when it can before the next crisis blows it up again. Based on the trajectory of the Fed balance sheet, that next crisis might be closer than anyone thinks! Warsh has come in with a new message: after 5+ years, the Fed is ready to get inflation under control. That’s much easier to say than do. This is really a situation of math more than anything else. If the Fed raises rates then the government borrowing costs will continue to increase. That cannot happen. The only option is to keep rates flat or lower them. They just need the right excuse.

Labor market rebounds, but all eyes are on inflation for Fed | American Banker -Hiring in the U.S. got back on track in August, with employers adding 162,000 workers to their payrolls in August. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1%.

• Key insight: A surprisingly strong jobs report bolsters the argument for the Federal Reserve to raise rates later this month, but much will depend on next week's consumer price index inflation report. 
• Expert quote: "With economic activity and the labor market in good shape, they are not a large factor in my determination of the appropriate setting of monetary policy. But they are an important backdrop for the part of the outlook that is my focus right now, inflation, and my judgment about how much the current stance of policy is working to return inflation to 2%." — Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller
• Forward look: The August consumer price index, set to be released on Sept. 11, will determine the Federal Open Market Committee's next move.

Fed to address conflicts of interest for reserve bank officials -The Federal Reserve's Office of the Inspector General found inconsistencies in how reserve banks execute their search processes and review stock holdings for prospective directors.

Global bond yields surge on debt and inflation fears -  Government bond yields rose in numerous countries on Tuesday, with investors selling off amid concerns over inflation and mounting public debts. The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield exceeded 4.7 percent Tuesday morning, marking its highest intraday value since January 2025.The 30-year Treasury bond yield, meanwhile, is still above 5.2 percent. The 30-year yield was below 5 percent in late June, but has risen over the past two months — even reaching its highest point since April 2007 in mid-August. The rising bond yields in the U.S. hurt Americans attempting to purchase a home via higher mortgage rates. Borrowing costs for other products, such as cars, are also subject to pressures from the bond market. Rising yields are not limited to the U.S., either. Japan’s 10-year bond yield surpassed 3 percent Tuesday before closing at 2.994 percent, the note’s highest mark in roughly 30 years.In the U.K., the 10-year bond is trading at above 5.2 percent for the first time since July 2008 — amid the global financial crisis.   Economist Robin Brooks pointed to rising government debt for the bond sell-off, saying U.S. markets “are more focused on the trajectory of the deficit” than any other data points.“The underlying dynamic in the Treasury market is more worrying than you think,” Brooks, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institute, wrote Tuesday on Substack. The U.S. national debt exceeded $40 trillion last month, double where it stood in 2017 and representing roughly 122 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). Other economic powers are running heavy deficits, as Japan’s national debt is above 1.5 quadrillion Yen, equivalent to more than $9 trillion. The Asian country’s debt represents about 251 percent of its GDP. Inflationary concerns have also consistently impacted markets, particularly with the ongoing Iran war. The conflict has entered its seventh month without signs of a peace deal between the U.S. and Islamic Republic, as the two sides traded military strikes on Sunday.Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, is trading at above $92 as of Tuesday. The per-barrel price of West Texas Intermediate crude, the North American benchmark, is more than $88.  Annual inflation in the U.S. was 3.7 percent last month, according to the personal consumer expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation.But Brooks argued last month the shocks brought on by the Middle Eastern conflict are only having an outsized effect on the market because of underlying government debt. “When you have a lot of debt and run unsustainably large budget deficits, you’re extremely vulnerable to any old shock that comes along,” he wrote in an Aug. 18 Substack post. “It’s not about the shock, but — instead — the mess we are making of fiscal policy on a global scale.”

Bond markets braced for a new era of higher inflation following global rout - A sharp sell-off in global government bonds is exposing investor anxiety that the macroeconomic backdrop may be shifting toward persistently higher inflation, as governments struggle to rein in spending and sovereign debt. Pressure on yields is not just a factor of this year’s rise in government borrowing and higher energy prices. Investors highlight a pivot away from globalization toward protectionism, and geopolitical tensions, which have materialized in trade tariffs, industrial reshoring and increased defense spending, as signs of a broader shift that could keep inflation structurally higher. That would mark a decisive break from the generally low and comparatively stable inflation environment that followed the global financial crisis — heralding wide-ranging implications for investors’ portfolios. “Structural features of the global economy have shifted and now create inflationary, rather than disinflationary impulses,” said Emma Moriarty, portfolio manager at CG Asset Management. “Tariffs, and then more recently, the outbreak of war in the Middle East have been the sharp end of this changing order. It is wrong to think of the energy shock as temporary, as the underlying structural change that has caused it might be quite long-lived.” yield moved above 3% for the first time since 1996. In the U.K., yields on 10-year Gilts — the benchmark for Britain’s government debt — hit a post-2008 high, as German 10-year bund yields, a barometer for euro zone borrowing, rose to levels not seen since 2011. Longer-dated yields in those countries also touched multi-year or multi-decade highs. Jon Cunliffe, head of investment office at JM Finn, said that while cyclical inflation pressures may continue to moderate, investors should not assume a return to the persistently low and stable inflation regime that prevailed between 2010 and 2020. “The key unknown is the extent to which AI will exert a disinflationary pull via a significant boost to productivity — this is certainly what new Fed Chair [Kevin] Warsh is hoping for as U.S. policymakers wrestle with growing fiscal dominance,” Cunliffe told CNBC via email. Investors say this week’s yield spike, particularly at the longer end of the curve, underlines investor demands for a higher term premium in the face of greater fiscal borrowing requirements, persistent inflation uncertainty and reduced central bank support for government debt in some major economies. Speaking with CNBC on Wednesday, Haig Bathgate, CEO at Callanish Capital said that while this week’s sell-off reflects a degree of short-term noise, sustained inflation across the term structure is “going to be a feature going forward in markets”. “At some point, this is going to come home to roost,” Bathgate said of the “spiraling” public spending. “We know from the ’70s looking back at history, once the inflation genie is out the bottle, it’s very hard to put it back in,” he added. “It is more sustained than anybody thought.”

 Why bond yields are rising and why everyone should care (AP) — Interest rates on government bonds are rising again around the world, making borrowing more expensive for consumers and businesses and heightening concerns about whether governments are issuing more debt than financial markets can handle.Rising bond yields are one of the few forces in the world strong enough to get politicians to snap to attention. They can also have a big impact on Americans' personal finances and on the broader economy. The bond market can dictate how much ordinary people have to pay on their mortgages and car loans, as well as how much they earn from their savings accounts and 401(k) plans. Fighting has flared up again in the Middle East, causing oil prices to jump and renewing inflation worries. Investors typically demand higher interest rates, or yields, on government bonds when inflation is high or they think it may get worse.On Tuesday, the yield on the 10-year Treasury, which strongly influences mortgage rates, reached 4.80%, the highest since early 2025. The 5-year Treasury, which is a benchmark for auto loans, touched its highest level since October 2025 at 4.55%.  In addition to inflation concerns, several other factors are also pushing bond yields higher: Annual U.S. government budget deficits remain higher than they were before the pandemic, forcing the government to borrow more to pay all its bills. Large tech firms are also borrowing heavily to build out the data centers powering AI. And last Friday, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh signaled that the central bank may still have to lift its short-term rate in the coming months if inflation stays stubbornly elevated. Rising yields have caught the attention of policymakers around the world, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who last month announced an unusual intervention in the bond market to restrain rising yields.Robin Brooks, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institute, said Bessent's moves and Warsh's promise to corral inflation have likely kept longer-term rates lower than they would otherwise be and betray “You should care because this stuff under the surface is really bubbling,” Brooks said. “And you can tell it is because policymakers are starting to get pretty agitated.”Yet Bessent downplayed the overall rise in U.S. yields in a conversation Tuesday with Fox Business host Larry Kudlow on the sidelines of the G20 finance ministers' meeting in Asheville, N.C. “I don’t think we are in any kind of a dire situation,” Bessent said. He argued that other countries' bonds have seen bigger yield increases.

US 10-year yield touches highest level since 2023 --Global bond yields are up sharply in recent weeks and US oil prices are back above $90 per barrel. Now, investors are on alert for potential pressure on the stock market. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose above 4.81% early Wednesday and hit its highest level since October 2023. The yield surpassed a recent peak set in January 2025. The rise in yields is a global phenomenon. Bond yields in France, Germany, the United Kingdom and Japan are at multi-year or multi-decade highs. Yields rise when bond prices fall. Investors are selling bonds, pushing up yields, as they reckon with inflation nerves and the prospect of central banks raising interest rates. Longstanding concerns over government deficits are also contributing to higher yields. Bond yields help set interest rates across the economy. A steep rise in yields can push up the cost of mortgages, auto loans and other borrowing, putting pressure on consumers. In an economy defined by consumers feeling glum about affordability, higher yields can exacerbate concerns. A rise in bond yields can also be a restraint on stocks. That matters specifically for the high-flying tech stocks that have powered the market higher in recent years. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite is down more than 3% since its last record high in June. With earnings season winding down, investors are turning their attention back to factors like what’s going on in bond yields and nerves about higher interest rates. The 10-year yield jumped Tuesday and the Nasdaq fell 1%. After hitting its highest level since 2023 on Wednesday morning, the 10-year yield pulled back slightly. The Nasdaq rose 0.45%. Bond yields help set interest rates for corporate America. A steep rise in yields can push up costs for companies that depend on borrowing, like the tech companies relying on debt to fund the AI infrastructure buildout. As tech companies have ramped up that borrowing, the rise in yields can have more acute pain for their outlook, according to Tom Tzitzouris, head of fixed income research at Baird Strategas. Investors prefer low rates, when borrowing is cheaper and companies’ outlooks become more attractive. A steep rise in yields can also alter calculations for companies’ future earnings and stocks’ values. That matters for tech stocks with high growth forecasts but a riskier outlook.

This is no ordinary bond market selloff: Mohamed El-Erian warns of considerable risks to our well-being  --For economist Mohamed El-Erian, sky-high interest rates on U.S. bonds are the harbinger of an even greater affordability crisis.​ “This is no ordinary bond-market sell-off,” El-Erian announced in his latest opinion piece for The New York Times. The former PIMCO CEO argued that, if selling pressure on bonds continues, “it could mark the beginning of a structural economic shift more enduring and more globally consequential than most previous episodes of market volatility.” With the national debt crossing the $40 trillion threshold, those high percentages translate to humungous piles of money. According to the latest data from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), net interest on public debt for fiscal year 2026 is now $963 billion. That makes paying off interest second only to Social Security in yearly government spending.​ El-Erian added: “That means more federal revenue goes to service the debt — nearly 20% — leaving less available for, say, defense or health care.” The longer this issue festers, the more likely there will be “considerable risks to our well-being.” ​It’s not just the size of bond yields and the national debt that has El-Erian worried. In his post, he walks through the unique causes driving the current bond chaos — causes he feels make it nearly impossible for policymakers to offer a quick fix. Unlike bond yield spikes in the past, El-Erian doesn’t believe “runaway inflation” is the key cause. In El-Erian’s mind, “what has surged is the real yield, or the extra, inflation-adjusted compensation that investors demand to bear the risk of buying debt in a more volatile world.” Because of that, he believes that “it’s unsettling out there right now.”​ On the one hand, El-Erian pointed to intense borrowing from hyperscalers furiously building their AI data centers. Citing stats from Goldman Sachs, El-Erian writes these Big Tech companies have “already sold almost $500 billion in bonds this year and will probably borrow a minimum of another $300 billion by year’s end.”​ Although El-Erian hopes “the investment in artificial intelligence will deliver higher productivity that generates significant income growth,” he advises that “any profound transition needs to be managed carefully,” and restraining corporations with rate hikes probably won’t be enough as the “FOMO is palpable” in AI. Along with the intense capital demand from tech corporations, traditional U.S. bond buyers aren’t showing up due to their own internal issues. El-Erian pointed to Japan as a prime example. As the yen dipped to lows not seen since the 1990s, fears grew that the country would start selling off U.S. bonds to keep its currency afloat. As The Financial Times reported, the U.S. Treasury got involved in the FX market, buying yen with euros, to help Japan while avoiding an even nastier bond selloff. ​The melt-up in U.S. bond yields has already triggered a lot of crazy moves throughout global markets. Notably, the U.S. dollar’s strength is now waning, falling to roughly 98.84 versus 101.53 just a few months ago. At the other extreme, traders are pouring billions into assets traditionally seen as “inflation hedges.” For instance, gold and Bitcoin are both up in the past month. Although Freddie Mac reported a slight decline in the 30-year mortgage rate to 6.65%, El-Erian says housing — along with auto and credit card balances — are in the “cross hairs” of these bond market woes. El-Erian said he believes that “low-income households” are about to feel the brunt of the bond chaos, adding that higher rates “will sideline even more prospective first-time home buyers and inflate the everyday cost of transportation.” Or, as El-Erian put it in his title: “America is about to get more expensive.”

El-Erian: U.S. Treasury has taken a step too far - Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor at Allianz and professor at the Wharton School joins CNBC’s Carolin Roth at the Ambrosetti forum in Italy. El-Erian discusses the U.S. Treasury’s intervention in the bond market and why he thinks it could hold unintended consequences. He also discusses the highly anticipated Fed decision and valuations in AI.

Treasury Secretary Bessent responds to Senator Elizabeth Warren  - CNBC video - Treasury Secretary Bessent joins ‘Squawk on the Street’ to discuss his back-and-forth with Senator Elizabeth Warren on the yen intervention and his increased bond buybacks.

Dutch cutch central bank moves gold bars out of U.S. and Canada, citing ‘crisis preparedness’  -The Dutch central bank (DNB) has transferred approximately 86 metric tons of gold out of the U.S. and Canada to the U.K., seeking to shore up its contingency planning in view of “increasing geopolitical unrest.” Just over one-quarter of the central bank’s gold reserves held in New York and Ottawa had been shifted to London between March and August, DNB said Wednesday.   The transferred gold is now stored with the Bank of England because gold stored there must meet international trade standards and is recognized as “the world’s most easily tradable gold,” DNB said, adding that the move strengthens its “crisis preparedness.” By contrast, DNB said the gold bars held in the U.S. and Canada could not be utilized as quickly and directly in a crisis situation. “With this relocation, we have improved the tradability of our gold reserves. We expect that we will never need to use them, but we do need to strengthen our resilience and preparedness,” DNB Governor Olaf Sleijpen said in a statement. The move comes amid amid a blockbuster rally in gold prices and continued U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions over the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, with a comprehensive settlement agreement far from certain. The price of gold, which is typically considered a safe-haven asset at times of financial uncertainty, has jumped nearly 25% over the past 12 months. The yellow metal is currently trading at $4,429.61 per ounce, up nearly 1% for the session. The move from the Dutch central bank comes after the French central bank replaced 129 metric tons of gold held at the New York Federal Reserve between July 2025 and January 2026. Bank of France Governor ⁠Francois Villeroy de Galhau said at the time that the move was not politically motivated. In light of the latest transfer, DNB said the geographical spread of its gold reserves was “more balanced,” with London now holding 32.1%, the central bank’s cash center in Zeist in the Netherlands holding 30.8% and New York and Ottawa holding 18.5%, respectively.

Netherlands moves gold from New York to London, citing geopolitical unrest - The Dutch central bank shifted the location of 78 metric tons of gold, worth $11 billion at today’s prices, from vaults beneath the streets of Manhattan to London, saying it would improve the ability to trade the metal in a pinch. The high-security operation took several months to pull off. Some of the gold was sold in the U.S. and repurchased in the U.K. Other bars were flown to Europe, likely in the storage hold of planes. The result: Almost a third of the Dutch gold reserve is in London and a still chunky 19% in New York, flipping their earlier positions. “In view of increasing geopolitical unrest, DNB is strengthening its crisis preparedness,” the central bank said in a statement referring to its Dutch acronym. The central bank also moved some gold from vaults in Canada. “We expect that we will never need to use them, but we do need to strengthen our resilience and preparedness,” said DNB President Olaf Sleijpen. The bank didn’t specify what it meant by geopolitical unrest. The move follows 18 months in which relations between the U.S. and Europe have frayed over tariffs, President Trump’s threats to seize Greenland and his equivocation over America’s military backing. Gold’s place as the backbone of global finance ended with the demise of the Bretton Woods monetary system in the 1970s. But central banks kept hold of some gold as part of reserves they could sell to defend their currencies if they came under strain. After a long decline, central banks started adding to their gold holdings again around the time of the 2008 financial crisis, according to a 2023 paper by the International Monetary Fund. Since then, proliferating sanctions have encouraged many central banks—notably Russia’s—to stock up on gold in case the U.S. cut them off from its banking system. Many central banks, including the Dutch, spread their gold eggs in different baskets around the world to keep them safe. New York and London are the two main centers for gold trading. The Fed keeps gold 50 feet below sea level on Manhattan Island bedrock strong enough to support the weight of hundreds of thousands of bars. Security is so tight, three people need to be present even to change a lightbulb. London, though, remains the global hub for trading physical gold. The Dutch central bank said bars at the Bank of England need to conform to international market standards and are therefore “regarded as the world’s most easily tradable gold.” Those in New York and Ottawa, it said, wouldn’t be as easy to trade “in a crisis situation.” Bank of England vaults also host a lively market in lending and borrowing gold. Central banks can earn a return by lending bullion to other players in exchange for interest. The hodgepodge of shapes and sizes in the Fed’s vaults limits this market in New York. The operation involved both financial and logistical expertise. The Dutch central bank first sold 59 tons in New York and bought the same amount in London, minimizing the amount that had to fly across the Atlantic. It transferred a further 27 tons from North America, but not directly to the U.K. Instead, the central bank directed the gold to its own vaults in Zeist, in Utrecht province. Meanwhile, it moved gold from Zeist to London.The reason? The bars that traveled from the Netherlands to the U.K. met the Bank of England’s standards, so the central bank didn’t have to melt the North American bars down and recast them.The Dutch central bank didn’t reveal how it shuttled the gold around. But bullion typically flies commercial in the cargo hold, or sometimes on chartered flights. On the ground, specialized security firms drive it in fortified vans. Commercial banks including JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and HSBC are often involved in gold trades by central banks.The French central bank said earlier this year it had sold 129 tons of gold in New York and bought the same amount in Europe. The French central bank said this capped two decades of work upgrading the quality of its gold, and that it booked 11 billion euros, equivalent to around $12.8 billion, in capital gains on the trade.

France Did It, Germany Did It, Now The Netherlands: Why Is Gold Moving Out Of The US? - The Netherlands has moved billions of dollars worth of gold reserves out of the United States and Canada and increased the amount it holds in the United Kingdom, with its central bank saying the reshuffle is intended to make the country better prepared for severe crises. The move has drawn attention not only because of the scale involved, but also because it comes amid heightened geopolitical tensions and follows previous moves by France and Germany to reduce the amount of gold they hold in the US. The Netherlands has 612.4 tonnes of gold reserves, valued at approximately 72.2 billion euros, or about $83.8 billion. These reserves are spread across different locations as part of the Dutch central bank’s risk diversification strategy. Before the latest relocation, 30.8 per cent of the Netherlands’ gold was held at De Nederlandsche Bank’s (DNB) Cash Centre in Zeist, 31.3 per cent in New York, 19.7 per cent in Ottawa and 18.1 per cent in London. Following the transfer, the share held in Zeist remains unchanged at 30.8 per cent, while London’s share has risen to 32.1 per cent. The amount held in New York has dropped to 18.5 per cent, while Ottawa now also holds 18.5 per cent. The gold covered by the relocation was valued at around 10.11 billion euros ($11.73bn) at the end of 2025. The transfer was carried out in two ways. DNB first sold about 59 tonnes of gold in New York, worth roughly $8.3 billion, and bought gold in London. A separate part of the operation involved physically moving bullion. “More than 27 tonnes of gold (approximately $3.84bn) was also physically transferred from the United States and Canada to Zeist, and a similar quantity of gold that meets the international market standards was transferred from Zeist to London, preventing the need to remelt gold bars," DNB said. At December 2025 valuations, around $10.7 billion worth of gold was moved out of New York, while a little over $1 billion was shifted from Ottawa. DNB said the relocation was intended to improve crisis preparedness and make the country’s gold reserves easier to use if needed. “With this relocation, we have improved the tradability of our gold reserves. We expect that we will never need to use them, but we do need to strengthen our resilience and preparedness," DNB President Olaf Sleijpen said. The bank said it considers gold an important reserve asset in periods of severe financial stress. “Keeping a larger share of the gold reserves in London strengthens the function of gold as an anchor of trust. Gold is seen as the ultimate reserve asset because it is ideally suited to hedge extreme systemic risks," DNB said. The bank also said gold held in New York and Ottawa could not be utilised as quickly or directly in such a situation. DNB has not said that deteriorating relations with Washington were the reason behind the relocation. Its stated explanation is that it wants a more balanced geographical spread of reserves, greater tradability and stronger crisis preparedness. However, the move comes at a time of increased geopolitical uncertainty involving the US. Washington and Canada have been locked in a trade dispute since 2025. The Trump administration imposed tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminium and automobiles, before announcing an additional 50 per cent tariff on $20 billion worth of Canadian goods in August this year. Canada responded with tariffs on more than 700 US products, also valued at $20 billion. Relations between the US and several European countries have also become more strained during Donald Trump’s second term, amid disputes over trade, Greenland and the ongoing US-Israel war against Iran. Trump has criticised European governments over their reluctance to join the Iran war and has also threatened tariffs against countries opposing his push to acquire Greenland.

List of Countries That Have Pulled Gold From US Federal Reserve - The Netherlands has become the latest country to pull gold out of the United States in recent years, as the Dutch Central Bank announced on Wednesday that it was moving 86 tons of its reserves from New York and Canada to London, citing “increasing geopolitical unrest.” "A more balanced distribution of these reserves between North America, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands helps to spread risks and will make them more readily available for use in a crisis situation," De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) said in a statement. The gold held in the Bank of England in London “must meet modern international trade standards and is regarded as the world’s most easily tradable gold and will therefore be the most readily available for DNB in a crisis situation,” the Dutch bank said. “London is the unparalleled centre for gold storage and trading, offering the world’s deepest, most liquid bullion market. The DNB’s headline makes that plain, by stressing that the move is about improving ‘liquidity and tradability’,” Adrian Ash, director of research at BullionVault, a physical gold, silver, platinum and palladium online market for private investors, told Newsweek. Before the move, the Dutch bank held 31.3 percent of its gold in New York and 19.7 percent in Ottawa. Now both hold 18.5 percent of the country’s gold reserve, while London’s share has grown from 18.1 percent to 32.1 percent. Another 30.8 percent of DNB’s gold is in the Netherlands. It is the second European country this year to remove its gold reserves from the United States, after France did the same in January. The Banque de France sold 129 tons of gold which had been held in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York between July 2025 and January 2026, about 5 percent of its total reserves.With the money it made from the sale, the bank purchased an equivalent amount of new, compliant gold in Europe, which now sits in Paris alongside the rest of France’s reserves, which totals around 2,437 tons.It is not a completely new phenomenon. In the summer of 2017, under the first Trump administration, Germany’s Bundesbank completed the transfer of 300 tons of its gold from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to Frankfurt. The move was part of the German bank’s plan to have the majority of the country’s gold reserves stored in German vaults in Frankfurt. While 36.6 percent of its gold stock remained in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, all the 374 tons of gold in France’s Banque de France were pulled out. Last year, Germany and another European country, Italy, resisted growing domestic and political pressure to repatriate approximately $245 billion worth of gold stored in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s vaults after trade tensions and concerns over U.S. monetary policy under President Donald Trump. The two countries hold the world’s second- and third-largest gold reserves at 3,352 tons and 2,452 tons, respectively. Italy holds roughly one-third in New York. The single largest holder is the United States, which holds 8,133 tons of gold. It is “hard” to think there is not a political angle to these decisions, Ash said, comparing it to a global shift between 2022 and 2024 when several foreign central banks began pulling physical gold out of the Bank of England and other Western vaults. “Lots of analysts and pundits said that the drop in Bank of England custody holdings between 2022 and 2024 was driven by geopolitical concerns, because emerging-market and non-Western central banks were no doubt spooked by UK sanctions on Russia, plus the case of Venezuela’s government not being recognized and therefore being denied the gold held in London for that nation,” Ash told Newsweek.

World's biggest sovereign wealth fund plans to cut Treasury holdings - Norway’s sovereign wealth fund has proposed cutting the allocation of government bonds in its $2.3 trillion investment portfolio, chiefly affecting its holdings of U.S. Treasurys, as it seeks to diversify its risk exposure and boost returns.The heads of Norges Bank Investment Management wrote in a letter to the country’s finance ministry, made public Friday, that it recommended reducing the government subindex of its bond holdings from 70% to 50% — a level it said would provide sufficient liquidity during market turbulence while allowing it to seek greater returns elsewhere.The proposed reallocation would gradually cut NBIM’s Treasury holdings from 34.1% to 21.9%, reduce its euro area holdings from 16.8% to 14.1%, and increase its share of Japanese government bonds to 7.4% from 4.6%.NBIM also wants to begin weighting its government bond holdings by market value instead of GDP because of the high debt loads of almost all developed economies,The potential shift would come at a sensitive time for the Treasury market, with long-dated yields pushed to decade-highs as investors fret over the U.S. fiscal trajectory and increasingly heavy debt load.“Reliable buyers and holders of U.S. Treasurys are under pressure,” economist Mohamed El-Erian told CNBC’s Carolin Roth in a Friday interview, citing Japan, China and Gulf countries.Addressing NBIM’s proposal to reduce its own share of Treasurys, El-Erian said: “The size isn’t big, but the signal that traditional holders and buyers are becoming less reliable is a very important one.”  NBIM plans to increase its holdings of non-government U.S. fixed income, such as corporate bonds, to 27.6% from 16.2%.CEO Nicolai Tangen and Norway’s central bank chief Ida Wolden Bache said the fund could earn higher premiums by diversifying into riskier assets, such as mortgage-backed securities, which they judge as well-positioned to weather as a long-term investor.Tangen and Wolden Bache said mortgage-backed securities, made infamous during the 2008 Financial Crisis, tend to move in the opposite direction to equities during crises and so could provide an “additional reduction of volatility” more similar to government bonds than corporate bonds. NBIM currently holds around $1.65 trillion in equities — with ownership of almost 1.5% of all shares in the world’s listed companies — and $592 billion in fixed income.The fund, established in 1998 to invest revenues from Norwegian oil with strict guardrails to preserve its longevity, has made record profits in recent quarters from its huge investments in U.S. and Asian tech firms and beneficiaries of the AI boom, such as semiconductor stocks.However, Tangen has warned that those levels of returns will not be sustainable in the case of a market downturn. In the first quarter of 2025, it swung to a $40 billion loss as investors turned risk-off.A recent stress test by NBIM found that an AI correction could wipe $740 billion, or 35%, off its value.

Americans are concerned about ballooning US national debt --The United States’ mounting debt is drawing fresh scrutiny ahead of the November midterm elections, as Americans weigh the major parties’ economic promises against the costs of everyday life. The Peter G. Peterson Foundation’s August survey found that 83 percent of registered voters said their concern about the debt had grown over the past few years. Some 82 percent wanted it among President Donald Trump’s and Congress‘ top three priorities, while 85 percent wanted them to devote more time to addressing it. The survey was conducted online among 1,002 registered voters August 17-19. The findings come at the same time the national debt passed $40 trillion on August 18, more than double the $19.5 trillion a decade earlier. The debt—which has risen $11.6 billion in Trump’s two terms and increased $8.4 billion under President Joe Biden—is accumulated federal borrowing, largely to cover spending that exceeds revenue, and includes money owed to investors and government accounts such as Social Security’s trust funds. Newsweek has contacted the White House for comment via email. For candidates heading into November, the political question is how that growing balance connects to the bills Americans pay themselves. “The national debt is not what most voters wake up giving a damn about,” Nicole Brener-Schmitz, a Democratic strategist and political director at the Save America Movement—a self-described “citizen-led organization focused on defending democracy and restoring common sense”—told Newsweek. “They wake up worrying about whether they can afford groceries, housing, gas, healthcare and childcare—and whether their paycheck will last until the end of the month.” James Christopher, a political strategist and founder of James Christopher Communications, also cautioned against assuming that the scale of the debt would determine outcomes at the ballot box. “It is one of the country’s largest long-term challenges, but it is not one of the biggest immediate voting issues,” he said. “The distinction is important: A problem can be enormous without affecting ordinary voters’ lives in a visible way that drives their votes.” The Peterson survey found that 94 percent considered the cost of living and overall affordability important to their vote, including 69 percent who described it as very important. When asked a question introduced with the statement that rising debt can increase inflation and interest rates, 91 percent said they were concerned about its effect on everyday expenses, including groceries, energy and housing. Some 55 percent were very concerned; 89 percent worried about its effect on borrowing costs, including credit cards, car loans and mortgages. Almost half, 47 percent, indicating they were very concerned. The financial pressures felt by Americans extend beyond perceptions of federal borrowing, with the rising cost of living consistently reported as a big issue. Costs are increasing: consumer prices were 3.4 percent higher in July than a year earlier, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Grocery prices rose 2.7 percent, shelter costs increased 3.2 percent and energy prices jumped 14.7 percent year-over-year.

House to vote on short-term government funding bill  -- The House is back briefly this week, and the top item on the agenda will be passing a continuing resolution to avoid a government shutdown on the first of October.

• Key insight: The House's top priority fresh off August recess is considering the continuing resolution to keep the government fully funded until Dec. 11. 
• Forward look: The House will try to pass the bill under a suspension of the rules, speeding the process for a vote but requiring a two-thirds majority to pass. 
• What's at stake: The short-term funding bill also includes provisions related to the Small Business Administration and farm insurance programs.

A continuing resolution to fund the government through mid-December would prevent the White House from blocking grants — including some in the banking sector — to states and municipalities that voted against President Donald Trump.

Democrats blindside leaders with move to bail out Johnson  --   House Democratic leaders were blindsided Tuesday when two rank-and-file members crossed the aisle to help Republicans advance a series of GOP messaging bills heading into the midterm elections. Rep. Katherine Clark (Mass.), the Democratic whip, said she received no notice from either Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) or Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.) about their intention to support a Republican rule governing the GOP bills. “That came as a surprise,” Clark said shortly after the vote. Clark said she has not spoken to the lawmakers since they cast their votes, but she was clearly frustrated with the pair for flouting an unwritten rule of House politics: The minority party virtually always unites against the majority party’s procedural rules, even if individual members of the minority support the underlying legislation. “One of the rules of being on a team is that we vote against the rule. So I’m sure we’ll have further discussions,” Clark said. Asked if that would include any disciplinary measures, she steered clear of the notion. “We’ll just have further discussions,” Clark said. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) appeared to be stunned by the defections as well, though he was also careful not to denounce his fellow Democrats outright. “We’re going to have a conversation about it all, and until that point, you know — I have nothing to say at this point,” he told Capitol Hill reporter Michael Jones. The vote, along with the combination of factors that led to it, highlights the difficulties that Jeffries and Democratic leaders might face if they win control of the chamber in the midterms and have just a slim majority to work with in the next Congress. Crossing the aisle to vote for rules is exceedingly rare. One exception came in 2023, when more than 50 Democrats, led by Jeffries, helped GOP leaders pass a rule required to raise the debt ceiling. Those votes were needed to help then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) prevent a federal default in the face of a conservative revolt over deficit spending. But that unusual move had the blessing of Democratic leaders. Tuesday’s aisle-hopping did not.

House passes short-term funding bill to avoid government shutdown before midterms The House on Tuesday voted to send a short-term extension of government funding to President Trump’s desk, avoiding a politically risky shutdown before the midterm elections. The continuing resolution (CR), which funds the government through Dec. 11, passed the House on a 370-48 vote, with 19 Republicans and 29 Democrats voting in opposition. The Senate advanced the measure by a landslide last month. The CR now pushes the spending battle to before the holidays, when the outcome of the midterms will help determine how much leverage each party holds to set the spending agenda. It’s rare for Congress to pass a CR this early in the year, almost a month before funding expires on Sept. 30 — even as political polarization has made finding bipartisan consensus on funding increasingly difficult and CRs necessary to keep the government open. But the early timeline and the broad bipartisan support the CR received are clear signals that both parties were anxious to avoid a fall funding fight with the congressional majority hanging in the balance. Congress has contended with two record-breaking shutdowns in the past year alone. The Senate version of the CR was adopted by a margin of 90-6, and several of the Democratic senators who voted “no” did so as a signal, as they knew the bill would succeed without them. Still, the funding stopgap didn’t get universal support in the House, and it could cause problems for Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.). Some hard-line Republicans voted against the CR — and voted against a rule for four unrelated bills — because of objections to provisions the Senate had added, including a short-term delay of a ban on intoxicating hemp products. The White House and the cannabis industry want to delay a congressionally enacted ban for a month to negotiate a different deal, but many Republicans want the ban to kick in as planned. Some are also not thrilled with a provision that temporarily blocks a rule that would reshape how the Trump administration disperses federal grants by giving more power to political appointees in distributing federal funds. House Appropriations Committee Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) said avoiding a shutdown was worth the complaints. “When we passed our continuing resolution over here, we knew it would change when it got to the Senate,” Cole said on the floor just before the vote. “Some of those changes I actually agree with, some of them I don’t. But they don’t really change the substance of the fact we bought the time that we need to get through the election cycle and hopefully the time that we need to get down to serious bargaining on the other side of it.” Democrats have generally not been inclined to back government funding resolutions during Trump’s second term. But the grantmaking provision added by the Senate, coupled with a desire to prevent a funding lapse, brought many Democrats on board. On Tuesday morning, House Democrats huddled behind closed doors in the Capitol basement for their first all-caucus, in-person meeting since the House left Washington in July for the long summer break. Rep. Rosa DeLauro (Conn.), the senior Democrat on the Appropriations Committee, made the case for supporting the funding package. “That’s a big statement from the ranking member. She’s my ranking member, so I have a tough time disagreeing with her,” quipped Rep. Pete Aguilar (Calif.), the chair of the House Democratic Caucus and a member of the Appropriations panel. Others jumped on board, even as some of them bashed the process of funding the government on a temporary basis. Rep. Ted Lieu (Calif.), the vice chair of the House Democratic Caucus, noted the shutdown deadline is not until Oct. 1 and argued that Congress should work to come up with a longer-term package. “We have a whole nother month left, and the Republicans who control the House, the Senate and the White House are basically waving the white flag of surrender and saying, ‘We don’t know how to govern, we don’t know how to pass appropriations bills,’” Lieu told reporters in the Capitol. “It is not a good way to run our federal government. But it’s the only alternative that’s going to be before us, so I’ll be voting for it.”

Trump signs bill funding the government through December | American Banker - — President Donald Trump signed the continuing resolution to keep the government fully operational though the midterms and into December.  The signing Wednesday delays a larger and more difficult fight about government spending until Dec. 11, and will keep programs that banks rely on running while those spending battles play out.

• Key insight: The House on Tuesday passed a continuing resolution to fund the government at existing levels through mid-December, and President Donald Trump signed the bill on Wednesday.
• What's at stake: The bill averts a government shutdown during the home stretch of the 2026 midterm elections, keeping important programs like crop insurance and development grants that bank customers rely on functioning.
• Forward look: The passage delays critical spending fights until after the November election, making a full annual spending package Congress' most important item of the post-election lame duck session.

Trump promised a short Iran war. Six months later, he has few good options. --The day after President Donald Trump launched the war in Iran on Feb. 28, he said the fight could last four to five weeks. Six months later, there is little to suggest the end is near. The Iran war has become a major challenge to Trump’s second term, buffeting his standing with voters at home and eroding the U.S. position in the Middle East. And the president’s ability to shape the outcome appears to be severely constrained after Iranian leaders discovered that they could withstand intense bombardment and slowly degrade the world’s most powerful military with a cheap combination of mines and drones. Now Trump needs to reopen the Strait of Hormuz while operating within his own red lines: His fierce aversion to becoming a 21st-century Herbert Hoover, who presided over the Great Depression, limits the economic moves available to him. His decision, at least so far, to hold back from the riskiest and most extreme military moves against Iran similarly limits his war options. “We are in an absolutely weaker position, and I don’t know that there’s any redemption for it,” said Suzanne Maloney, an expert on U.S.-Iran relations at the Brookings Institution. The war “is part of a larger set of dynamics that have been unleashed by this administration that have eroded U.S. credibility and capabilities in the Middle East, but also with respect to other adversaries in other theaters.” Trump boasted Thursday of the soaring stock market and said that Tehran was suffering from a U.S. naval blockade and a tightening sanctions campaign, both of which have put pressure on its economy. He downplayed the war’s impact on the flow of oil through the strait, which before Feb. 28 carried more than a fifth of global supplies. “Iran is right now, they’re not paying their troops. They’re in deep trouble,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office as he signed an order that directed U.S. government agencies to change the name they use for Lake Ontario to Lake America. “They have very little capacity. Last night, we took 24 boats through the strait. We’re taking them through all the time,” he said. “It doesn’t mean we’re finished with the military, but we are, the strait is open.” More than 100 ships traversed the Strait of Hormuz on average every day before the war. Just five went through on one day this week, according to Kpler, a commodities and shipping tracker. U.S. officials say the true number is higher because some ships have been turning off their transponders to avoid getting hit by Iran, but oil supplies have remained tight and prices have stayed well above pre-war levels. The president and his allies say they have dealt a historic blow to Iran’s military and its ability to construct a nuclear weapon. They point to the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the intense first phase of the war that destroyed much of Iran’s armed forces. But half a year into a war that Trump said he launched to prevent Iran from building a nuclear weapon and oppressing its people, the country’s hardline regime appears firmly entrenched, and it is still able to launch attacks against U.S. bases and allies. Those allies and foes alike are contending with the severe depletion of the Pentagon’s arsenal. And as the midterm elections loom, some Trump voters who cheered the president’s 2024 campaign pledge that he would steer clear of Middle East wars are questioning how much longer they’ll have to pay higher prices at the gas station. Approval of Trump’s handling of the war has been dropping as prices for gasoline and other goods remain elevated. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released this week put Trump’s approval at 33 percent. The pollsters found that support for the war has been dropping among Republicans, although approval for the action within his party remains 69 percent. Trump has been especially sensitive to investors’ reaction to his moves on Iran. In June, just after he signed an interim peace deal with Tehran that later fell apart, he said “every time we talked about the possibility of peace, the stock market shot up like a rocket ship.”“I didn’t want to see economic catastrophe,” he said, explaining his decision to sign the deal.Those economic concerns appear to have limited the administration’s willingness to push against Tehran economically. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this week declared an “economic D-Day” against Iran, telling countries they risked the wrath of U.S. sanctions if they continued doing business there.. In the same breath, he took some of the sting out of the threats by saying he wasn’t imposing sanctions immediately, because “why would I want to blow up the global financial system?” Iranians likely took notice, said Richard Nephew, who helped devise the sanctions regime during the Obama administration ahead of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. “It clearly sent a signal to the Iranians that there is a limit to how far we’re going to be prepared to act,” Nephew said. Economic pressure remains an important tool, he said — but the war may be demonstrating the limits of both economic and military pressure. “What worries me is whether or not we have now also, in addition, learned the limits to how far military coercion can push, and that actually the Iranian response is going to be, ‘We can handle all of this.’ In which case, it’s not just the the leverage on the economy that we’ve lost. We’ve lost leverage across the board,” Nephew said. The war is reverberating far beyond the Middle East. Fresh U.S. intelligence indicates that the Kremlin sees the United States as weakened by the Iran war. Russian President Vladimir Putin may see that as an opportunity to escalate action against American interests and allies in Europe, the assessments say, according to two people familiar with the matter. The intelligence assessments preceded CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s Tuesday trip to Moscow, where according to one of the people, he warned his Russian counterpart not to escalate against Ukraine, saying that such a move would backfire. The people spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the subject’s sensitivity. The CIA has not commented on the subject of the conversations, and Trump said Thursday that Putin is “not going to be attacking a NATO territory.” The Post has previously reported that the U.S. has lost roughly a quarter of its Reaper drones, which cost between $30 million and $50 million each. They are used for surveillance and targeting. Stocks of sophisticated Patriot anti-missile defense systems, which are used to protect Israel, Ukraine and U.S. bases around the world, are also severely depleted. The shortages have led some other countries to be more cautious about their aid for Ukraine and Arab allies, as they see a growing need to preserve a larger arsenal for their own defense in case the U.S. is less able to help them. Ukraine has sought Patriot batteries from Greece, for instance, but Athens has recently declined, instead relocating a system to the island of Crete, near a U.S. base there, following threats from Iran. In the Persian Gulf region, where the U.S. has long maintained a robust presence, the Pentagon is assessing whether to pull back some U.S. forces rather than rebuild all of its damaged bases. Washington’s allies “are going to hedge,” said Nate Swanson, who was the Iran director on the National Security Council during the Biden administration and continued into the first half year of the Trump administration. The U.S. presence on their soil “has been a negative for these countries” over the last six months, Swanson said. “It’s been a reason of justification for being attacked, and there wasn’t much we could do to defend that,” he said. “We are not going to be the sole dominant presence in the Middle East in the way we were before.”

Netanyahu Boasts of Efforts To Convince US To Launch War Against Iran - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has boasted of his efforts to convince the US to launch a war against Iran, crediting his frequent appearances on US television networks and his “intimate knowledge” of US leaders. Netanyahu made the comments Sunday night on Israel’s Channel 14, and a clip of his appearance was posted on X by the account Clash Report, which Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi later shared. The Israeli leader said that he had been against Iran for “nearly 40 years” and that it took him a long time to get the Israeli security establishment and the US on board. “It took a long time to bring the US in,” he said, according to Channel 14. “I was able to do this because I had close to a thousand hours on American television, influence in the United States, and intimate knowledge of all its leaders – both those who support us and those who do not.”The New York Times reported in April that 17 days before the US and Israel launched the war on February 28, Netanyahu presented President Trump with an intelligence briefing at the White House and made a “hard sell” for the war. The report said that Netanyahu had been “pressing for months” for the US to agree to a major attack on the Islamic Republic.  Sources told the Times that during the briefing, Netanyahu made a series of predictions about the potential war that proved to be wrong, including the idea that Iran was ripe for regime change, that its ballistic missile program could be destroyed within weeks, that it would be too weak to close the Strait of Hormuz, and that Iran’s missile strikes on US interests in regional countries would be minimal. Responding to Netanyahu’s comments about his influence on the US, Aragchi said that the Israeli leader was openly bragging about how he “suckered” the US into the war. “In Hebrew, Netanyahu openly crows that he suckered the US Administration into a war on Iran on behalf of Israel. Netanyahu explicitly laughs about how he ‘influenced’ America through 1,000 hours of airtime on US networks,” the Iranian diplomat wrote on X. “In English, he praises POTUS’ leadership. Serpent.”

US Bombs Iran's Larak Island; IRGC Strikes US Bases in Jordan - - The US on Sunday bombed Iran’s Larak Island, a small island off the coast of Bandar Abbas in the Strait of Hormuz, marking the first known US strikes on Iranian territory in more than a month. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) quickly responded to the US attack, launching strikes against US bases in Jordan.US officials speaking to media outlets claimed the attack targeted two launchers that were preparing to fire rockets equipped with mines into the strait. The IRGC said that the US attacks killed and wounded a number of civilians and soldiers but didn’t provide an exact toll.The extent of the damage from the Iranian attacks on US facilities in Jordan is unclear at this time. During the last round of tit-for-tat US-Iranian strikes last month, the IRGC was able to cause significant damage to US bases and inflict hundreds of casualties on US troops in the country.Earlier on Sunday, the UK’s Maritime Trade Operations said that a ship traveling in the strait near Oman was struck by a projectile on Saturday. Ships continue to come under attack despite the US claiming that the strait is open. Iran has said the waterway will not be fully opened until the US ends its blockade of Iranian ports and fulfills other commitments it agreed to under the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) that was signed in June. While the attack on Larak marked the first direct US strike on Iran in over a month, the US has remained in a state of war with Iran as it continues to enforce the blockade, which has involved attacks on commercial ships, and it has also attempted to ramp up the economic war against the Islamic Republic.

US strikes Iran again as retaliation raises fears over gas prices, Strait of Hormuz  - The U.S. military conducted strikes against Iran for the first time in weeks, and Iran retaliated, as the war between the countries surpassed six months. President Trump called the campaign “very limited” but didn’t rule out further action, calling Iran a “failed nation.” “Their navy is gone. Their air force is gone. Their surveillance equipment is almost entirely gone. That doesn't mean we won't smack ‘em. We'll see what happens,” Trump said. U.S. Central Command told Scripps News that Iran was preparing to launch sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz Sunday when the U.S. military took action, striking two Iranian launchers on Larak Island in the strait, which is called “limited, precise action.” It came just days after U.S. forces announced it cleared the shipping lanes of mines. Iran retaliated overnight, launching ballistic missiles it says in the direction of U.S. forces in Jordan and the UAE, according to Iranian state media. "Test our will once more, and pay a heavier price. Retaliation is coming; JUST RUN!" the head of the national security commission of Iran's parliament posted on social media Sunday. There were no impacts on U.S. forces and all missiles were intercepted, according to a U.S. official. A spokesman for U.S. Central Command told Scripps News the U.S. military is monitoring the area closely and remains prepared to protect the free flow of commerce through this essential waterway. Trump told Fox News the US would respond and is going to “hit them hard,” according to the outlet, and on Truth Social appeared to threaten Kharg Island once more. “I think that he's sending a message to the Iranians, look, we know that they continue to shoot at commercial shipping. We continue to have a lot of tools at our disposal to prevent them from doing so or at least cut down on them from going so,” Vice President JD Vance said. “The President retains all options at his disposal. The Iranians want to make a deal, but they are always a day late and a dollar short,” a White House official told Scripps News. The weekend action marks a change from the past week, in which the U.S. was focusing on increased economic pressure on Iran. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told the Associated Press that new sanctions on banks that help with Iranian financial transactions are part of that effort. Meanwhile, the latest military action could impact oil and gas prices to close out a month that will set records in the U.S. According to AAA, gasoline prices have never been above $4 a gallon as a national average every day in the month of August prior to this year. The average remained above $4 a gallon Monday, while Brent crude oil rose more than 2 percent, topping $90 a barrel. “We have the Strait of Hormuz in extremely good shape. You know, we're taking over many, many ships got through last night, as you know, with the Navy's assistance, and we've been averaging 30 ships a night. That's a lot, and a lot of oil is coming out. That's why you haven't seen the price of oil go like they thought it might have to go,” Trump said. Iran is not the only factor that could impact what Americans pay at the pump. On social media, President Trump announced his intention for a new oil deal involving Venezuela's oil Trump said will give the US control of more than 65 billion barrels. "One of the things I am going to do with the Venezuelan Oil is fill up the Strategic National Reserves," President Trump said.

Trump Says He Will 'Hit' Iran 'Hard' After IRGC's Retaliatory Strikes on US Base in Jordan -  President Trump on Monday vowed that he will bomb Iran again after the IRGC responded to the first US strikes against Iranian territory in about a month by targeting US military facilities in Jordan.The US strikes on Sunday night targeted Larak Island, where at least two people were killed, and several others were injured, according to local officials. The IRGC responded with missile strikes on Jordan and also claimed a drone attack on a US base in the UAE, which Abu Dhabi denied, though it did acknowledge intercepting an Iranian drone.When asked if the US would respond to Iran’s retaliatory attacks, Trump told Fox News reporter Trey Yingst, “We’re going to hit them hard. There will be a response.”The president also downplayed the Iranian attack, claiming that all but one missile was intercepted and that the one that wasn’t shot down was allowed to go through since it wasn’t expected to cause much damage. However, Jordanian sources speaking to ABC News said that “some” of the missiles were not successfully intercepted.  In another threat to Iran, Trump posted videos made by AI of US forces bombing Iran’s Kharg Island. “Kharg Island being blown to smithereens!!! President DJT,” he said in one of the posts on Truth Social on Sunday night.  The US launched the strikes on Sunday after Trump and his top officials signaled their plan was to focus on ramping up the economic sanctions on Iran and continuing the blockade rather than bombing the country, but now Trump appears to be reverting back to launching strikes and threatening escalation.Israel’s Channel 12 reported that last week, Trump reviewed a plan to launch a limited bombing campaign along the Strait of Hormuz to prevent Iran from rebuilding military capabilities, an idea one US official called “mowing the lawn,” a term Israel used for its bombing campaigns in Gaza pre-October 7, 2023.The US claimed that its strikes on Larak Island targeted two launchers that were preparing to fire rockets armed with mines into the strait, and the Channel 12 report said that the US attack and Iran’s retaliation make Trump more likely to approve the Hormuz bombing campaign, which has the backing of US War Secretary Pete Hegseth.

Iran’s president offers to ‘reciprocate’ if US returns to June interim peace deal - Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian on Tuesday said his country is prepared to “reciprocate” if the U.S. agrees to reinstate commitments made by both sides in the memorandum of understanding signed in June, a day after hostilities resumed along the Strait of Hormuz with the U.S. conducting its first strikes on Iranian forces in a month.Speaking at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s summit in Kyrgyzstan, Pezeshkian said if the U.S. “returns to its commitments” under the previously signed interim deal, Iran would “immediately reciprocate,” Reuters reported, citing Iranian state media. The semi-official Iranian Students' News Agency reported that before leaving the summit, Pezeshkian said Iran was “clear” that it is “not seeking war.” The Iranian leader, however, warned that his country will not remain silent in the face of any aggression and would respond in a “decisive manner.” Pezeshkian’s comments come a day after the U.S. military carried out what it said was a “limited, precise action” against the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps’ “minelaying forces.”The strikes have triggered concerns of a return to full-blown conflict as Iran responded by targeting American bases in Jordan with ballistic missiles.Aside from the Iranian president, the SCO Summit was attended by Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, among others, in an event viewed as an effort to build a counterweight to U.S. global influence. At the summit, Xi said the SCO should “foster an environment of universal security.” A day earlier, Modi met with Pezeshkian and directly addressed the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, calling for “lasting peace” and resumption of “freedom of navigation and commerce.”  Pezeshkian’s comments partly echoed remarks made by Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi a day earlier. According to Iranian state media, Araghchi said the U.S. must “return to its commitments and adhere to the memorandum’s terms; only then this situation will be resolved.” The foreign minister, however, insisted that Iran will “stand firm in upholding its rights” against “aggressive US attacks.” It’s unclear if Iran’s powerful paramilitary, the IRGC, would be willing to agree to the reinstatement of the interim deal.In a Truth Social post on Monday morning, President Donald Trump declared Iran a “Failed Nation” that is “DEAD.” The president claimed that their leadership was in “total disarray” and the country was not able to pay its soldiers or police officials. The president told Fox News in an interview that the ongoing U.S. blockade of Iran has been “unbelievable” and added that Iran is being hit very hard financially. Last week, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration has told negotiators that it has no interest in returning to the terms of the memorandum of understanding agreed to in June.

US Launches Airstrikes Across Iran's Coast - The US began a series of airstrikes against Iran’s coast on Tuesday, attacks that came after Axios reported that President Trump was considering a Hormuz Strait bombing campaign aimed at disrupting Iran’s ability to target commercial shipping that one US official described as “mowing the lawn.”  Iranian media has reported explosions in Iranian cities and towns on the Strait of Hormuz, including Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island, and also as far southeast as the city of Konarak on the Gulf of Oman. Iranian officials reported that US strikes killed five people attending a wedding ceremony near the city of Sirik.US Central Command said that at 12 pm Eastern Time, its forces “began striking Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targets in Iran” and that the “strikes follow recent attempted attacks by the IRGC against commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and against American service members deployed to the region.” About six hours later, CENTCOM said the strikes had concluded and claimed it hit “air defense sites, radar systems, maritime assets and facilities, mine laying capabilities, and communications sites.”Trump also announced the strikes and warned Iran not to respond, threatening major escalation if it does. “If the failed Nation of Iran retaliates for this very justified attack, they will be hit again at a much harder and higher level, but it will not be the biggest attack of them all, that is waiting in the wings and, when it is over, there will be very little left of the Islamic Republic of Iran!” he wrote on Truth Social.Despite Trump’s threat, the IRGC announced that it was launching retaliatory strikes and said its forces shot down a US MQ-9 Reaper drone. “The brave warriors of the IRGC have begun a regretful response to the aggressors, and in the first action, using the new aerospace defense system, they shot down the 50th advanced MQ-9 drone of the invading American army,” the IRGC said.The strikes come two days after the US bombed Iran’s Larak Island, the first direct US strikes on Iran in about one month. The IRGC responded to the Larak attack by striking US bases in Jordan and also claimed an attack on a US base in the UAE. President Trump said on Monday that he would strike Iran “hard” following the IRGC’s retaliatory attacks.The Axios report on the planned bombing campaign said that CENTCOM told Secretary of War Pete Hegseth that bombing Iran periodically may be necessary to ensure some oil tankers can still exit the Strait of Hormuz, and that Hegseth approved the plan and sent it to the White House.The term “mow the lawn” is a term Israel used for its bombing campaigns in Gaza in the years preceding the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, and the start of Israel’s genocidal campaign in the Strip. The language suggests the US is digging in for an open-ended conflict with Iran despite reports of Hegseth being warned by senior military leaders that the current US posture in the Middle East is unsustainable.

US Embassies in Middle East Issue Warnings to Americans in the Region as Trump Escalates Iran War - - US embassies across the Middle East issued new security alerts to Americans in the region on Tuesday as the US launched what appeared to be a heavy round of airstrikes across Iran’s coast and the IRGC began to respond with attacks on US bases. US embassies in Jordan, Jerusalem, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Qatar said that due to “tensions in the Middle East, the security environment remains complex with the potential for unforeseen escalation.”The US Embassy in Amman specifically advised Americans “to avoid travel to military bases in Jordan” as US military facilities in the country have become a frequent target in Iran’s retaliatory strikes.“Americans currently in the Middle East should exercise heightened vigilance and be aware of potential flight cancellations, airspace closures, and travel disruptions,’ the security alerts said.US embassies in the region issued similar alerts during exchanges of strikes between the US and Iran in July. The US bombed Iran’s Larak Island on Sunday, marking the first direct strikes on the Islamic Republic in about one month, and now the US strikes have significantly escalated.The US has maintained its increased military buildup in the Middle East, and family members of US Army soldiers in the 82nd Airborne deployed in the region have been notified that the deployment will be extended to a full year. The soldiers arrived in the region at the end of March, when media reports said the Trump administration was considering some sort of ground operation against Iran’s Persian Gulf islands.

US launches new strikes against Iran as Trump says he's "not trying to force Iran to the negotiating table" - -The U.S. military completed a new wave of strikes Tuesday on targets in Iran as the conflict in the region stretches into its seventh month.“U.S. forces struck Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targets including air defense sites, radar systems, maritime assets and facilities, mine laying capabilities, and communications sites,” U.S. Central Command (Centcom) wrote in a press release Tuesday.  One U.S. strike hit a home hosting a wedding, killing five people – including a child – and wounding dozens, The Associated Press and other outlets reported.The continued strikes are in the face of little to no progress in talks to get Tehran to give up its nuclear program and release its hold on the Strait of Hormuz  with President Trump saying he is “not trying to force Iran to the negotiating table.” “I couldn’t care less if they sign a worthless, to them, agreement. I like our position now much better, with almost total control of the Hormuz Strait, and their economy totally collapsing,” Trump stated on Truth Social Tuesday. “They are just playing out the inevitable. When are the Iranian people going to rise up and fight?” The U.S. has already enacted a naval blockade against Iranian oil exports in the Strait of Hormuz and has tried to secretly ferry stranded tankers through the waterway but transit remains difficult as strikes continue.  A June memorandum of understanding sought to begin to end the war but fell apart when Iran and the U.S. disputed who was given control over the Strait of Hormuz according to the agreement.

U.S. strikes Iran oil tankers for first time under new "tanker for tanker" policy - The U.S. military attacked two Iranian government tankers as part of the round of strikes that took place on Tuesday, U.S. officials said. This is the first time the U.S. military has struck Iranian tankers in retaliation for Iranian attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz — rather than to prevent them from violating the naval blockade.A U.S. official said the move was part of a new "tanker for tanker" policy approved by President Trump to further deter Iranian attacks on tankers that move through the strait. U.S. officials said around 100 targets were attacked during Tuesday's strikes.

• The Iranian government tankers were anchored off Iran's coast north of the U.S. naval blockade line. U.S. drones launched missiles that hit their engine rooms.
• Among the targets were Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) air defense sites, radar systems, mine-laying capabilities, communications sites, anti-ship cruise missile launchers and attack drone launchers, U.S. officials said.
• They said Iran's retaliation failed. It fired around 25 ballistic missiles, but only half reached Jordanian airspace. Ten were intercepted and three landed without causing any casualties.
• Iran launched two dozen drones at U.S. bases in Bahrain, but most were intercepted, a U.S. official said.
• It also fired ballistic missiles and drones at U.S. bases in Kuwait. And two drones were launched at a U.S. base in Erbil in the Kurdistan region of Iraq but were intercepted.

The White House and U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said the strikes were in response to the IRGC's recent attempted attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz as well as on American bases in the region.But the attacks were also part of a plan Trump and his senior aides have been considering in recent days to prevent Iran from rebuilding the radar and missile capabilities it needs to attack ships crossing the strait. Axios reported the plan on Monday. One U.S. official said the idea is to reduce the risk of Iranian attacks on oil tankers, U.S. Navy ships and Air Force aircraft — to "mow the lawn," as this person put it. A U.S. official told Axios on Tuesday that the new strikes degraded Iran's attack capabilities in the strait and "bought at least a month" of lowered threat levels for commercial ships. As the U.S. and Iran exchanged fire, American forces continued guiding ships through the strait.A U.S. official said around 40 ships transited in and out on Tuesday, carrying millions of barrels of oil. The person said U.S. forces intercepted several anti-ship cruise missiles and drones that the IRGC fired toward the ships, none of which were hit.: The two sides also clashed over an Iranian report of civilian casualties.Iranian media reported that one U.S. strike hit a wedding ceremony in the town of Kuhestak, killing at least four people and wounding at least 35. CENTCOM spokesman Capt. Tim Hawkins responded: "We're aware of the reports, which originated from Iranian state media. The U.S. military never targets civilians, unlike the IRGC.""The Iranians have not only lost control of the Strait of Hormuz, they have also lost control over the conflict. They got nothing today," a U.S. official said.

US Strike Hits Wedding in Southern Iran, Killing at Least Five People: Deputy Governor - - A US strike in southern Iran on Tuesday hit a residential building where a wedding reception was taking place, according to local Iranian officials and the Iranian Red Crescent.  Ahmad Nafisi, the deputy governor of Iran’s Hormozgan Province, told Iranian media the strike hit a home in the city of Kuhestak in Hormozgan’s Sirik county and killed at least five people, including a young child, and wounded 68 people.According to Iran’s PressTV, Hormozgan’s Red Crescent Society described the attack as “a US missile strike that sent shrapnel into a residential home in Kuhestak, where a wedding celebration was taking place.”The Associated Press reported that Capt. Tim Hawkins, a spokesman for US Central Command, said the US was aware of the reports of civilian casualties and noted that they “originated from Iranian state media.” Hawkins said the US “doesn’t target civilians,” but a large number of civilians have been killed in the US bombing campaign, most notably the more than 100 schoolchildren killed by the February 28 US strike on an elementary school in Minab. Iranian officials are vowing revenge for the strike in Kuhestak, and the IRGC has been launching attacks on US bases across the region since the US began large-scale airstrikes along Iran’s coast on Tuesday.“Targeting a wedding and slaughtering innocent civilians in Kuhestak, Iran, is the ultimate proof of the utter desperation of the fake defenders of human rights, a repetition of their atrocities in Minab and Lamerd,” Ebrahim Azizi, head of the Iranian parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, wrote on X.“Make no mistake: these crimes will not go unpunished. Nothing will protect them from the crushing will of Iran’s Armed Forces,” Azizi added.

US military completes latest strikes against Iran, while Trump vows more for Tehran's retaliation | (AP) — The U.S. military hit targets in Iran on Tuesday and Tehran fired missiles and drones at various sites across the region in response as hostilities flare once again in an intermittent war that has lasted more than six months. One U.S. strike hit a home hosting a wedding, killing five people and wounding dozens, local officials said.U.S. Central Command said in a statement Tuesday evening that it had completed the latest barrage against Iranian military targets including air defense sites, radar systems and maritime assets.The U.S. strikes followed others on Sunday that abruptly ended a month without military action and threatened to fully reignite a conflict that has spiked global oil prices and posed political problems for Republicans in November’s midterm congressional elections. Late Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump said he would not force Iran to the bargaining table. “I couldn’t care less if they sign a worthless, to them, agreement. I like our position now much better, with almost total control of the Hormuz Strait, and their economy totally collapsing. They are just playing out the inevitable. When are the Iranian people going to rise up and fight?” Trump wrote on social media. Earlier, Trump had appeared to pivot toward trying to bend Iran to his will through economic sanctions. He warned that if Iran retaliated for the new strikes, “they will be hit again at a much harder and higher level.”

Trump Proposes Renaming Strait of Hormuz After Himself -  President Donald Trump has suggested renaming the Strait of Hormuz the “Trump Strait” amid renewed hostilities with Iran following a brief period of respite.“Now that we have it under U.S.A. control, should we change the name Hormuz Strait to Trump Strait? Like America itself, it would be ‘hotter’ than ever before!” the President said Wednesday.Trump floated the idea a day after the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) launched a new wave of strikes against Iranian military targets.The U.S. military said it struck air defense sites, radar systems, maritime assets and facilities, mine laying capabilities, and communications sites linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).Iran’s Foreign Ministry on Wednesday released a statement insisting the U.S. had attacked civilian areas and service infrastructure in the provinces of Khuzestan, Sistan and Baluchestan, Hormozgan, and Kerman. It said a wedding ceremony in Kuhestak, Sirik County, had been struck, resulting in fatalities and injuries. In a statement to TIME, CENTCOM spokesperson Navy Captain Tim Hawkins said: “We are aware of reports, which originated from Iranian state media. The U.S. military never targets civilians, unlike the IRGC.” The IRGC said it had launched retaliatory strikes on U.S. bases in Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain, alongside an additional U.S. facility in Iraq, overnight Tuesday. The renewed hostilities and threats come after a roughly month-long pause in active hostilities between the two countries. On Sunday, the U.S. military struck two Iranian launchers on Larak Island it said were preparing to fire rockets carrying naval mines into the Strait.Trump’s attempt to rename the Strait underscores how both Iran and the U.S. have continued to vie for control of the vital waterway, through which roughly a fifth of global oil transited before the war.The President has previously turned to name changes as a show of power and a way to undermine his perceived adversaries, most recently renaming Lake Ontario as “Lake America” during the U.S. trade war with Canada.Meanwhile, although Trump has claimed the U.S. has near total control of the Strait, the tussle over the body of water—which reignited after both countries adopted different interpretations of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU)—rages on.With no clear path to a negotiated truce, Washington has doubled down on its “economic D-Day” threats against Tehran, increasing the pressure by tightening sanctions in addition to military action.

Iran Says US Strikes on Tuesday Killed 18, Wounded 108 - Iranian Health Ministry officials said on Wednesday that a series of US strikes that hit targets across Iran’s southern coast on Tuesday killed at least 18 people and wounded 108.Among the dead were security personnel and civilians, including civilians who were killed by a US strike that Iranian officials said hit a wedding ceremony in the southern city of Kuhestak in the Sirik country of Iran’s Hormozgan Province.The deputy governor of the Hormozgan Province said Tuesday that at least five people, including a young child, were killed and 68 were wounded by the strike in Kuhestak, though Iranian reports on Wednesday put the death toll back down to four.The four dead have been identified as four-year-old Amir Ali Karimi, 16-year-old Mohammad Malahi, 43-year-old Kolsoum Malahi and 43-year-old Zarkhatoun Taheri. The New York Times said that it verified videos of the strike hitting near the wedding. Iranian officials strongly denounced the US strike as a war crime. “The truth of this unlawful war of choice – and the true face of the war crime – is in Sirik, where a wedding ceremony was brutally bombed as part of America’s desperate struggle to conceal its failure, not in AI-generated videos portraying American officials as triumphant heroes,” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei wrote on X. Iranian Parliament speaker Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf said that the strike and other US attacks that have killed civilians are evidence that the US is the “Great Satan.”“If a power acts like Satan, picks targets like Satan, and kills like Satan, it’s Satan. Shields a junior Satan that does the same? It’s THE Great Satan,” Ghalibaf wrote on X. Other US strikes on Tuesday hit Iran’s Qeshm Island, where at least three members of the paramilitary Basij force were killed, according to Drop Site News, which cited Iranian media. Strikes also hit targets far from the Strait of Hormuz, with four Iranian military personnel reported killed in the western Kermanshah Province and seven Iranians killed in the Khuzestan Province.In its retaliatory attacks, Iran targeted US bases in Jordan, Iraq, Kuwait, and Bahrain. The IRGC claimed it inflicted casualties on US troops in Jordan, but so far that hasn’t been confirmed.

Trump Says He May Rename Hormuz Strait the 'Trump Strait' as Iran Says Two Tankers Hit Mines -   President Trump on Wednesday again claimed that the Strait of Hormuz was under US “control” and suggested he may rename it the “Trump Strait,” comments that came as Iran’s IRGC said that two tankers attempting to cross the strait hit Iranian mines.“Now that we have it under USA. control, should we change the name Hormuz Strait to TRUMP STRAIT??? Like America itself, it would be ‘hotter’ than ever before! Thank you for your attention to this matter,” the president wrote on Truth Social.While Trump has repeatedly claimed the US has full control of the strait, Iran has continued to strike ships in the area, and US launched extensive airstrikes along Iran’s southern coast on Tuesday that were meant to degrade Iran’s ability to target commercial shipping. The attacks also killed 18 people, including five attending a wedding in the southern city of Kuhestan, according to Iranian officials.The IRGC said in a statement on Wednesday that the two ships it said hit mines in the strait were “deceived” by the US into attempting to make the crossing. “Two oil tankers that had been deceived by the US military were stopped after hitting mines and exploding, and are now burning,” the statement said, according to Iran’s PressTV. “Additional punishments have been envisaged for shipping companies that, instead of following legal routes, are deceived by the Americans, and these measures will soon be implemented,” the IRGC added.  Also on Wednesday, Saudi Arabia condemned what it called an Iranian attack on a Saudi-owned tanker that killed two Filipino crew members. The vessel was struck by a projectile on Monday night off the coast of Oman, and a South Korean tanker was hit in the same area.

Iran Targets Marine Barracks In Jordan, Sends Drones On Bahrain & Kuwait, After Trump's New Strikes -  Iran is already hitting back, according to some early reports of what looks to be their latest retaliation, despite President Trump having earlier warned the Islamic Republic will be hit harder if it responds."If the failed Nation of Iran retaliates for this very justified attack, they will be hit again at a much harder and higher level, but it will not be the biggest attack of them all, that is waiting in the wings and, when it is over, there will be very little left of the Islamic Republic of Iran!" he stated earlier. The White House indicated it is focused on taking out IRGC targets. But this has triggered the expected reaction:

• Fars: Some Arab sources report that an explosion was heard in Jordan; several explosions were heard from American bases in Jordan
• IRGC says US attacks will tighten the lock on the Strait of Hormuz
• Explosion heard in Erbil, Iraq, reports Fars

The last tit-for-tat instances also saw US bases in Jordan targeted.One Atlantic Council analyst points out the obvious - today's action is yet another indication that the administration still does not understand how the Iranian government and leadership thinks (unless the intent is actual runaway escalation). Danny Citrinowicz writes: Threatening Tehran with even more devastating strikes if it retaliates is unlikely to prevent an Iranian response. In fact, it may do the opposite. From Tehran’s perspective, failing to respond to a direct U.S. attack would undermine the very deterrence equation Iran has spent months trying to establish. The Iranian leadership believes it must demonstrate that American military action carries a price. That means Iran is likely to retaliate and it may even conclude that a broader or more painful response is necessary precisely to rebuild deterrence against future U.S. attacks.This is the fundamental problem with Washington’s approach: it assumes that sufficiently strong threats will convince Iran to back down. But Tehran may draw exactly the opposite conclusion, meaning that backing down under threat would invite additional American strikes. Threats will not solve this problem. If Washington wants to prevent another cycle of retaliation and counter-retaliation, it needs a political strategy for ending the confrontation. Otherwise, each side will continue using force to restore deterrence after the previous round — creating an escalation cycle that becomes increasingly difficult to control.The latest Pentagon leaks to the Washington Post happened days ago, and now this: Iranian state media is saying that the military retaliation is ongoing, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force announcing that it launched a heavy ballistic missile attack targeting the US Marine barracks at Camp Titin, located near the Gulf of Aqaba in Jordan - which is at a significant distance, in the country's far southwest corner. State media sources further detail:  According to the IRGC, the strike destroyed multiple military installations and attack helicopters, inflicting heavy casualties on U.S. forces. The operation was executed as the second wave of retaliatory actions under the code name “Ya Rasul Allah.” And more via state WANA News Agency: "The IRGC stated that the action was carried out in retaliation for a U.S. strike on a residential home during a wedding ceremony in Sirik, which resulted in nearly 50 civilians killed or injured, including children." Iranian claims of US casualties will as usual be hard to verify, but CENTCOM has said no casualties have resulted, per news wires: US officials says no US casualties from Iranian attack on facilities in Jordan so far. In the wake of the US CENTCOM campaign, which may still be ongoing, Iran's Hormozgan grid is under blackout. Further damage is likely to be assessed and publicized in the coming hours. Bahrain, Kuwait also targeted:

• Iran's army launched drone attacks on the US base in Bahrain, according to Fars News Agency
• Kuwait Army says air defenses are confronting attacks by hostile drones
• Jordan intercepts 10 ballistic missiles from Iran, three fell in remote areas: army

Initial unconfirmed footage now widely circulating of alleged IRGC attack on Jordan base...

US and Iran exchange most intense attacks in weeks --The U.S. has carried out a fresh barrage of deadly strikes on Iran, marking the most intense attacks in weeks after a relative lull.U.S. Central Command said it carried out a wave of strikes on military targets in Iran on Tuesday following suspected Iranian attempts on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. military bases the day before.   Iran reported that several civilians, including a child, were killed and dozens more injured when shrapnel hit a home where a wedding celebration was taking place. CENTCOM said in a statement to media outlets that the “U.S. military never targets civilians, unlike the IRGC.” In response, Tehran launched attacks at American military sites in Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain, and also claimed an attack on a U.S. facility in Iraq. The U.S. did not report any casualties. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) vowed “severe punishment” for the U.S. attacks. President Donald Trump warned that further strikes could be carried out. “If the failed Nation of Iran retaliates for this very justified attack, they will be hit again at a much harder and higher level, but it will not be the biggest attack of them all, that is waiting in the wings and, when it is over, there will be very little left of the Islamic Republic of Iran!”The latest exchange of attacks represents a sharp escalation after a fragile weeks-long pause in fighting. It comes after the U.S. and Iran resumed fire for the first time in a month over the weekend.   The Trump Administration had been pivoting to a strategy of economic pressure on Iran and its trading partners, seeking to force Iran back to the negotiating table. But the latest attacks cast doubt on the prospect of talks, even as Iranian President Mahmoud Pezeshkian signaled Tuesday that Tehran was open to talks so long as that the U.S. returns to the cease-fire conditions in the June 17 memorandum of understanding (MOU).   CENTCOM said it struck air defense sites, radar systems, maritime assets and facilities, mine laying capabilities, and communications sites.  Iran, however, reported that U.S. strikes killed civilians and damaged civil infrastructure. The southern port cities of Chabahar and Konarak were struck by four projectiles, Iranian state media IRNA reported, citing a provincial official. Projectiles also hit a wedding ceremony in the city of Kuhestak in Sirik County, Deputy Governor of Hormozgan Province Ahmad Nafisi told Mehr news agency.At least five people were killed and more than 50 injured in Sirik, according to the Iranian Red Crescent Society, a humanitarian group. Mehr reported that a 4-year-old child was among the dead.Tavanir, Iran’s national electricity company, said the strikes caused power outages in parts of Hormozgan Province.Citing the deputy governor of Iran’s Khuzestan province, IRNA reported that another seven people were killed and eight injured in U.S. strikes on three locations in the province.  The New York Times independently verified photos from Sirik that showed damage to a communications tower and footage that showed significant damage, including a collapsed roof, to a building in a residential area near the tower.Hours after the U.S. attacks, Iran retaliated by launching missiles and drones at U.S. sites across the region. Jordan’s military reported that 13 ballistic missiles entered the country’s airspace, 10 of which were intercepted while the remaining three fell in remote areas. Kuwait’s military said its air defenses intercepted Iranian drone attacks. Bahrain said it intercepted Iranian drones which Iran said were aimed at a U.S. air base. The IRGC also claimed missile and drone attacks on U.S. military equipment warehouses in Iraq. Neither the U.S. nor Iraq have confirmed the attack.  The latest escalation began Sunday after the U.S. military claimed it struck two Iranian launchers on Larak Island that were preparing to fire rockets carrying naval mines into the Strait of Hormuz. Iran did not confirm that such preparations were underway. Iranian media reported that the U.S. strikes on Sunday killed at least two people and wounded several others. Iran retaliated by launching missiles at U.S. bases in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates. Neither the U.S. nor the host countries reported any casualties. On Monday, two supertankers carrying Saudi crude were struck by projectiles within minutes of each other as they sailed out of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran did not claim responsibility for the attack, although CENTCOM said its subsequent strikes were prompted by attempted IRGC attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait.Negotiations between the U.S. and Iran have repeatedly faltered in recent months, dimming hopes for an end to the war. Days after the U.S. and Iran signed an MOU in June that temporarily reopened the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping, Iran appeared to target ships that it said used unapproved routes. Control of the Strait has remained Tehran’s key point of leverage, allowing it to disrupt global energy supplies and raise the economic cost of the war as it seeks more favorable terms in any settlement. Beleaguered by reports of dwindled munitions, which Trump has adamantly refuted, Washington has increasingly emphasized economic pressure. Its campaign has included a naval blockade on Iranian ports and expanded sanctions on Iran. The U.S. has also threatened Iran’s trading partners with secondary sanctions in an effort to isolate the country, which is suffering from a collapsing currency and severe inflation. Analysts have said the approaching mid-term elections add pressure on Trump to avoid an open-ended war or an unfavorable deal, although he has insisted that the elections have no impact on his strategy.But analysts previously told TIME that Iran has repeatedly demonstrated that it is prepared to endure substantial economic and military pain rather than accept terms it considered surrender. “This is an existential conflict for the Iranian regime, and every day they remain in power is a victory from their perspective, and a humiliation from Trump’s,”  On Wednesday the Financial Times reported that Russia was secretly helping Iran develop supersonic cruise missiles, capable of targeting U.S. naval vessels in the Middle East.

Iran live updates: Tehran claims attacks on US bases in Kuwait, UAE  --Iran's army claimed Thursday morning that it conducted overnight strikes on U.S. military bases in Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. In statements carried by official and semiofficial Iranian news agencies, Iran's army said it used missiles and drones to target satellite communication systems, equipment depots and fighter jet hangars at Ahmed al-Jaber Air Base in Kuwait. The statements also claimed attacks on troop positions and radar systems at Al Minhad Air Base in the UAE. The Kuwait Army said in a post to X on Thursday morning that its air defenses were "confronting hostile missile and drone attacks" launched from Iran. President Donald Trump said the renewed military campaign in Iran would last "not too long" but did not offer a concrete timeline. "As soon as it's over, which I don't think will be very much longer. I don't know how much more they can take, but you know whatever, it is, doesn't matter," he said. Trump made a point to emphasize that his decisions regarding Iran are not influenced by the looming midterm elections, with the president pointing out that he is not on the ballot. Pressed on "what’s left to strike" in Iran, Trump pivoted to tout the fact that the U.S. is "controlling" the Strait of Hormuz and suggested the strikes on Iran are in response to their aggression against vessels moving through the waterway. "We've controlled and we are controlling the Hormuz Strait. We are bringing lots of boats out every day with millions of barrels of oil. We are, for the most part, doing it without trouble. Every once in a while, they shoot a drone and knock it down, but we have control," Trump said. Trump then repeated that the U.S. targeted Iran’s radar systems, which he said Iran was about to finish rebuilding -- despite his repeated claims that Iran’s military systems have been defeated. "They were trying to rebuild their radar systems and a missile system and a mine drop. We got rid of all the mines in the Hormuz Strait. They were trying to build a rocket that drops mines. Who does that?" Trump said. "It was almost finished, so we took it out. We saw that they were building. We see everything that they're doing. They can't move -- They can't go to the bathroom without us seeing it."

Iran Says It Launched Attacks on US Bases in Kuwait, UAE - The Iranian Army has announced that its forces launched missile and drone attacks targeting US bases in Kuwait and the UAE, attacks that it said were a response to the US strikes against Iran on Tuesday that killed civilians and soldiers.According to Iran’s PressTV, the Iranian Army, officially known as the Islamic Republic of Iran Army, claimed that it struck the Ahmed al-Jaber Air Base in Kuwait, damaging communications systems and fighter aircraft hangars, and that it also targeted troop deployment areas and radar systems at al-Minhad Air Base in the UAE.US officials have downplayed the attacks, with one unnamed US official telling CBS News that the strikes didn’t impact US military facilities. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) had previously retaliated for the US bombings on Tuesday by targeting US bases in Jordan, Iraq, Bahrain, and Kuwait.The Iranian retaliation came after President Trump threatened major escalations against Iran if it responded to the US bombings. “If the failed Nation of Iran retaliates for this very justified attack, they will be hit again at a much harder and higher level, but it will not be the biggest attack of them all, that is waiting in the wings and, when it is over, there will be very little left of the Islamic Republic of Iran!” Trump wrote on Truth Social.Iranian officials have vowed there would be revenge for the US strikes, which killed at least 18 people. At least five people, including a four-year-old, were killed when a strike hit a home where a wedding was taking place. Mohsen Rezae, the head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said that the US will be facing a “new strategy on the battlefield, in diplomacy, and in confronting the economic blockade will shatter your very foundations,” suggesting Iran plans to be more forceful in its retaliation.

Vance Says He's 'Extremely Skeptical' of Reports That US Bombed Wedding in Iran Despite Overwhelming Evidence - Vice President JD Vance said on Thursday that he was “extremely skeptical” of Iranian media reports that the US bombed a wedding in Iran on Tuesday, despite overwhelming evidence from other sources that the US was responsible.“I’ve been briefed to the extent that I know that we’re investigating. I’ve seen the same public media reports everywhere else,” Vance said at a press briefing when asked about reports of the strike.“I will say that the Iranian state media has not been a very good scribe about what’s happened in the conflict thus far. So I’m extremely skeptical of this,” he added.The New York Times has verified the footage and photos of the aftermath of the strike, which hit a home in the southern Iranian city of Kuhestak, and concluded that the bomb had been fired by US forces.Trevor Ball, a munitions expert, examined the photos and identified the remnants of a glide bomb that is used by US Central Command and is not used by Iran’s military. He told the Times that a tail fin and distinctive casing matched the US’s Joint Standoff Weapon, or JSOW. The home that was bombed belongs to Ali Mallahi, a fisherman and member of Iran’s Baluch ethnic minority, who was celebrating his daughter’s wedding at the time of the strike.Iranian officials initially said four people were killed, but Iranian media reported on Thursday that a 22-year-old woman died of wounds sustained in the attack, bringing the death toll up to five. The other four victims killed in the strikes on Kuhestan have been identified as four-year-old Amir Ali Karimi, 16-year-old Mohammad Malahi, 43-year-old Kolsoum Malahi, and 43-year-old Zarkhatoun Taheri.The Balochistan Human Rights Documentation Network, a foreign-based group that maintains contacts with the Baloch community in Iran and is very critical of the Iranian government, also confirmed that the wedding was bombed but told The Associated Press that the 16-year-old boy, Mohammad Malahi, was killed in a separate strike that hit a communications tower about 100 meters away from the wedding.Vance said that the US is “investigating” the incident because when “our military makes mistakes, they learn from them to try to get better from them.” But six months after the US strikes on the Shajareh Tayyebeh Elementary School in Minab, southern Iran, which killed more than 100 schoolchildren, the Trump administration still hasn’t acknowledged responsibility, and US attacks have repeatedly killed civilians in Iran.

Iran live updates: Trump excuses Lutnick saying there were no US deaths in Iran war - President Donald Trump is protesting reports that say U.S. munition stockpiles are dwindling as the Iran war drags on, suggesting the media outlets that are publishing the story are "100% wrong" and "actually treasonous." "The people and Media Outlets that keep harping on the fact that we have no ammunition (And they are 100% wrong!), are actually treasonous," Trump said in a post on his social media platform Thursday. He said the U.S. has "virtually unlimited amounts of Mid to High Grade Ammunition," adding that it’s "far more than we could ever use for this, or for any other War (which is highly unlikely!), that could improbably take place." He also pushed back on reports that the U.S. is struggling to produce munitions, saying the U.S. is currently stockpiling weapons and "preparing for any contingency that could happen." Trump said weapons sales to allies would begin again "soon." "We are producing Munitions at levels never seen before. We are stockpiling and preparing for any contingency that could happen. We are taking them for ourselves, the U.S.A., rather than selling them to others, but the sales to Allies will soon again, begin," Trump wrote on social media. He also repeated his position from earlier this week that the war in Ukraine, not in Iran, is where most U.S. munitions have been used– again blaming former president Joe Biden for providing aid to Ukraine. President Donald Trump posted to social media on Thursday defending Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, who erroneously said on Wednesday that no Americans had been killed in the ongoing war with Iran. In an interview with CNBC, Lutnick touted the administration's strategy of attempting an "economic choke out" of Iran and said that "there haven't been American deaths." Eighteen Americans have been killed so far in the conflict, which has now been active for more than six months. Trump wrote on social media on Thursday that Lutnick had "Venezuela on his mind" when he made his remarks. Also on Thursday morning, Lutnick posted to X saying he "misspoke" and offering his condolences to the families of the 18 dead servicemembers. "I was thinking about the Venezuelan military operation where no service members died," Lutnick wrote.

RFK Jr. is investigating whether troops died of Covid vaccine, Army doctor says – - An Army doctor told a federal court in Virginia she’s working with Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to probe whether troops died from Covid-19 vaccines after President Joe Biden mandated the shots for service members in 2021.In an Aug. 14 deposition obtained by POLITICO, Theresa Long said Hegseth detailed her to be Kennedy’s senior medical military adviser. Her role at HHS has not been previously reported. Kennedy, a longtime vaccine safety skeptic, has hired others who share his skepticism to investigate vaccine injuries and to probe any links between vaccines and rising rates of autism. Studies done over decades have not found a link.  Kennedy’s taken particular aim at Covid vaccines — which he once described as the “most deadly vaccines in history” — by ending a government recommendation that most Americans get them annually. Vaccine safety experts say Kennedy’s statement is false and that it has contributed to some Americans’ decision to forgo vaccination that could reduce the severity of the disease.Groups representing doctors Wednesday urged Americans to get the shots. Covid vaccine uptake rates among adults have continued to drop during Donald Trump’s presidency, from the low-20s when he took over to to high teens. As part of her role, Long said she’s looking into whether 2,544 unverified deaths among service members reported to HHS’ Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System — or VAERS — were caused by Covid vaccines. Long, who is board certified in aerospace medicine and has a master’s in public health, told the court she hoped to be able to finish her research on the potential vaccine complications “within a year.” HHS and Long did not respond to requests for comment on her work at the department. Asked by POLITICO about Long’s role, the Defense Department said it doesn’t “have anything to announce at this time,” and referred to a May statement announcing its Covid-19 Reinstatement and Reconciliation Task Force, which helps troops who left the military due to their refusal to be vaccinated return if they want to. The Defense Department discharged nearly 9,000 service members for refusing Covid vaccines before Congress ordered the DOD to end the rule in a 2022 law. “The Department continues to right the wrongs of the past and to restore confidence in, and honor to, our fighting force,” the statement said. Kennedy has argued that requiring service members to receive the Covid vaccine violated their rights.

Army Secretary Dan Driscoll submits resignation after tension with Hegseth - Army Secretary Dan Driscoll has submitted his resignation to President Donald Trump, multiple sources familiar with the matter told CNN.One source said the decision was unsurprising given tension between Driscoll and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth.A second source familiar said that in his resignation, Driscoll “brought up concerns with the administration surrounding Army transformation and readiness and Hegseth’s blocking those efforts specifically by firing the generals who were responsible.” An Army official said Driscoll “spoke to the president about the current state of the Army and submitted his resignation.”The departure of Driscoll, an Army veteran and longtime friend of Vice President JD Vance, has been long rumored and comes after months of friction with Hegseth. It also comes six months into the Iran war, which shows no signs of ending. It’s unclear when Driscoll will officially leave the role; typically, the under secretary of the Army would step in as the acting secretary. The current under secretary is Mike Obadal, a retired Army colonel and special operations aviator. “Secretary Driscoll has been highly effective in advancing President Trump’s agenda to Make America Strong Again at the Department of the Army by providing outstanding leadership during historic military operations, restoring an emphasis on readiness and lethality, assisting with negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, and more,” White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said in a statement.CNN has reached out to the Army for additional comment. The Wall Street Journal first reported on Driscoll’s departure.Earlier this year, Hegseth fired the Army chief of staff, Gen. Randy George, and two other generals. George and Driscoll worked closely together. Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle repeatedly questioned Hegseth on the firing and voiced their admiration for the general. And before Congress in April, Driscoll joined them in saying there is “no person that has more respect for Gen. George and his 42 years of service, his Purple Heart, his wife Patty, their grandkids, their kids.”“I adore them,” Driscoll said at the time. “And he was an amazing, transformational leader.”  Nearly from the beginning of Hegseth’s tenure, multiple sources previously told CNN, the secretary has been distrustful of officials around him — civilian and military alike — and suspicious about their loyalties. One of the most prominent examples of infighting throughout Hegseth’s tenure has been with Driscoll, often due to the close relationship Driscoll and Vance. CNN has reported that Hegseth has viewed Driscoll’s relationship with the White House as an effort to go around him.Driscoll and Vance were classmates at Yale Law School and have remained close friends. The young Army secretary also formed his own relationship with Trump, which was apparent when he was tapped by the president last year to help persuade Ukraine to return to the negotiating table for talks with Russia.Where Hegseth’s tenure has thus far largely been defined by his aggressive stance on so-called culture war issues, Driscoll and George publicly appeared focused largely on modernizing Army forces and equipment. Trump even took to referring to Driscoll as the “drone guy” given his extensive work on the technology.Hegseth — who served in the Army National Guard for nearly 20 years — has taken particular interest in the Army and its leadership. He has fired or forced out several key leaders in the service, including George, former Vice Chief of Staff of the Army Gen. James Mingus, the head of Army Transformation and Training Command Gen. David Hodne, the Chief of Chaplains Maj. Gen. William Green Jr. and Director of the Joint Staff Lt. Gen. Douglas Sims.Most recently, Gen. Christopher Donahue, the highly respected commander of US Army Europe and Africa stepped down from his role as Hegseth had not yet nominated him for a new position. Multiple sources told CNN that there had been tension between the offices of Hegseth and Donahue, though not necessarily between the two men. Donahue officially retired last week.

Pete Hegseth imposes his will on Army with Dan Driscoll resignation -The resignation of Army Secretary Dan Driscoll underlines how Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is increasingly imposing his will on the Pentagon after nearly 20 months in the role. Driscoll’s departure, which came sooner than expected, followed months of tensions with Hegseth, who has forced out or stalled the promotions of dozens of senior military officials in a campaign to overhaul the bureaucratic makeup of the Pentagon. Since arriving at the Pentagon, Hegseth, a former Army National Guard officer, has taken a particular interest in the Army, which now has no Senate-confirmed leader on the civilian or uniformed side of operations. “He’s absolutely consolidating power and placing loyalists such as General LaNeve into positions such as acting Army chief,” said Kevin Carroll, a retired Army Reserve colonel, referencing Gen. Christopher LaNeve, whom Hegseth slotted as acting Army chief of staff.Hegseth in April fired Army chief of staff Gen. Randy George, a move that unnerved some Republicans on Capitol Hill.  It left the Army in an “unusual condition,” according to Retired Navy Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery, who added that Driscoll’s resignation is “unfortunate, but expected,” given the secretary’s tangling with Hegseth over George’s removal in early April and the recent retirement of Gen. Chris Donahue, the commander of U.S. Army Europe and Africa. Army vice chief of staff Gen. James Mingus, who was in the role for less than two years, retired in October without explanation. In his place, President Trump and Hegseth selected LaNeve, Hegseth’s former military adviser. The Pentagon is pushing to get LaNeve confirmed as Army chief of staff, but he has faced objections from senators on both sides of the aisle. Montgomery, now a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said Hegseth is forcing unprecedented personnel changes that are leaving the Army weaker.“I think Hegseth has weakened the Army’s readiness to deal with this significant shortfall, a shortfall that affected the joint forces’ ability to conduct major combat operations against Iran, and would create equal challenges if we had to fight with Russia, China or North Korea,” he told The Hill on Tuesday. Hegseth is considering his senior adviser and Pentagon chief spokesperson Sean Parnell as Driscoll’s successor, The Hill first reported last week. Parnell has been in touch with the White House regarding the possible nomination in recent days, a source familiar with the matter told The Hill on Tuesday.

Hegseth removes 6 Army officers from promotion list --Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth spiked the names of at least six Army officers from a list for promotions to two-star generals, a person familiar with the matter, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told The Hill Tuesday. The removals come just days after the Pentagon chief blocked promotions of four Army officers selected to ascend to one-star rank, some of whom had links to former Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George — who Hegseth ousted in early April — and Gen. Chris Donahue, the commander of U.S. Army Europe and Africa who retired earlier this summer. Hegseth’s office did not immediately respond to The Hill’s request for comment. Earlier this year, the defense secretary similarly pulled four Army officers, two women and two Black men, from a one-star general promotion list — to the displeasure of Army Secretary Dan Driscoll and other top officials. Driscoll handed his resignation to the White House on Monday and is set to depart the Trump administration after a months-long turf war with Hegseth, a move that further signals the defense secretary’s aim to impose his will on the service branch. Hegseth and his allies have said the Defense Department does not factor the service member’s gender or skin color when weighing promotions. The defense secretary has also blocked promotions of officers in the Navy and Air Force, moves that have rankled former military leaders, calling them unnecessary and damaging to the service branches. Recommendations by the promotion boards are contingent on the greenlight of the defense secretary, but the commander-in-chief has the authority to remove officers’ names from the list.  Hegseth told Congress in April that every officer serves at the “pleasure of the president, and when they need to be removed in order to ensure we have the right leadership in those services, I will make those calls.”

Turkish F-16s Launch Airstrikes Near Mogadishu as US-Backed Somali Government Fights Major Battle With al-Shabaab - -Turkish F-16 fighter jets have carried out airstrikes outside Mogadishu as US-backed Somali federal government forces have been locked in a major battle with al-Shabaab over Basra, a village about 22 miles northwest of the Somali capital.  Garowe Online reported that Turkish strikes targeted al-Shabaab, but Ankara and Mogadishu have yet to officially confirm them. Local sources told Garowe that the strikes caused heavy casualties, including dead and wounded, but they did not provide a number.  The Somali Defense Ministry said on Sunday that its forces were “conducting a major operation against al-Shabaab militants on the outskirts of Basra” and claimed that Somali troops “neutralized a number of al-Shabaab militants, including two leaders” and seized weapons.The Somali Guardian reported that government forces and al-Shabaab have been fighting over Basra for more than a week and that both sides have claimed to inflict heavy casualties, but no numbers have been confirmed. The report noted that the village of Basra has changed hands more than a dozen times since 2011, following a pattern in the conflict of government forces being unable to solidify gains made against al-Shabaab. The heavy fighting comes amid a political crisis in Somalia sparked by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s decision to stay in power despite his term expiring, something he justifies by the changes his government made to the constitution. The federal government has been clashing with local state governments, and al-Shabaab has been able to capitalize on the crisis. The Trump administration has dramatically ramped up US airstrikes in Somalia, but it’s unclear if the US has launched any strikes during the battle for Basra. The last strike US Africa Command took credit for in Somalia occurred on August 7 and targeted al-Shabaab in Jilib, a village about 200 miles southwest of Mogadishu.Turkey has also been increasing its support for the federal government and its airstrikes in Somalia, though there’s no sign that either the ramped-up US and Turkish airstrikes have made a difference in the war. Besides bombing al-Shabaab in southern Somalia, the US has also conducted an air war against an ISIS affiliate in Somalia’s northeastern Puntland region, and recently signed a deal with the local Puntland government to expand its military presence in Bosaso, a port city on the Gulf of Aden.The US has been involved in Somalia for decades and has been fighting al-Shabaab since the George W. Bush administration backed an Ethiopian invasion in 2006 that ousted the Islamic Courts Union, a Muslim coalition that briefly held power in Mogadishu after taking the city from CIA-backed warlords.Al-Shabaab was the radical offshoot of the Islamic Courts Union, and its first recorded attack was a suicide bombing in 2007 that targeted Ethiopian troops occupying Mogadishu. It wasn’t until 2012 that the group pledged loyalty to al-Qaeda. The ISIS affiliate in Puntland started as an offshoot of al-Shabaab and first emerged in 2015.

Strong Support for Extending UNIFIL Mandate in Lebanon, US Remains the Holdout - Closed-door meetings this weekend among UN Security Council members showed strong support for extending the mandate for the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) peacekeepers, whose mandate is scheduled to expire at the end of the year.Initially established in 1978, the mandates for the UNIFIL have been extended repeatedly since then, despite objections from Israel that the peacekeepers are getting in the way of their operations. At Israel’s behest, the US insisted in 2025 that the extension be the “final” one, and while there was sufficient support for that at the time, the 2026 Israeli invasion and occupation has changed matters.The UNIFIL’s presence allows them to be a key part of international documentation of the situation in the Israeli occupied south of Lebanon. This week, for instance, they issued a report that Israel had launched 1,030 distinct projectiles against Lebanese territory in the past seven days, predominantly targeting civilian sites and infrastructure.US Ambassador Mike Waltz was reportedly the primary holdout for extending the mandate within the Security Council, though he reportedly neither took a US position in favor or against the extension of the mandate. Lebanon favors extension but Israel, as usual, opposes the idea.In recent weeks, the prospect of the expiration has led to international discussion on creating a post-UNIFIL force, which would itself potentially have a UN mandate and fill roughly the same role. Italy had suggested the European Union could establish such a force.Israeli Ambassador Danny Danon made it clear Israel similarly opposed any post-UNIFIL alternative, declaring that none of them would do anything to “contribute to regional stability.” In practice, however, Israeli objection to the presence of peacekeepers in Lebanon isn’t automatically a veto, and only becomes such if they can convince the US to block them from having any UN mandate.Since Israel is occupying the part of Lebanon in question, and intends to be there for the long term, the concern is that the presence of peacekeepers will in some way preclude Israel from imposing Gaza-style levels of destruction on the region, though how much it’s actually limited them so far remains unclear, as villages are being wiped out and the population is being expelled.

US Forces Board, Blow Up Alleged Drug-Linked Boat Off Coast of Ecuador -  On August 28, US forces boarded a boat off the coast of Ecuador, removed the crew, and then blew up the vessel to sink it, according to a press release from US Southern Command and testimony from the Ecuadorian crew members, as the US continues expanding its military campaign across Latin America. SOUTHCOM said that US Marines and sailors from the USS San Antonio, an amphibious transport ship operating in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, interdicted a vessel the US military command claimed was operating as a “floating refueling station in support of illicit at-sea drug trafficking operations in international waters.” The command said once the crew was removed, US forces “sank the vessel,” and it released a video of the boat being blown up. SOUTHCOM claimed that US intelligence showed the vessel was “operating in support of the Los Choneros violent narco-terrorist organization,” but it didn’t provide evidence to back up the claim. For their part, 14 Ecuadorian fishermen who were on board the boat, the “Tres Hermanos”, were returning from a fishing trip. “We were boarded by the American patrol. From 8:00 am to 1:00 pm, they held us, and it was extremely cruel treatment, pointing guns at us, throwing us to the ground, and searching us,” Hector Espinales, one of the crew members, told the Ecuadorian news outlet Primicias. Espinales also said that he was never told why they were detained and why the boat was blown up. The Tres Hermanos served as the mother ship for four smaller fishing trawlers, and the fisherman said they returned to the Ecuadorian port of Manta on the smaller boats, where they went to lodge a complaint with the Manta Port Authority. The Primicias report said they were told to return on Monday, August 31, to give their statements, suggesting Ecuadorian authorities did not have enough evidence to detain them. SOUTHCOM said the raid was conducted in coordination with Ecuador, and the Ecuadorian Defense Ministry expressed support for the US operation, saying that the “destruction of a vessel operating as a fuel refueling station for drug trafficking activities has occurred.”The US and Ecuador have ramped up military cooperation against alleged drug trafficking activity, which included the bombing of what the Ecuadorian government claimed was a drug camp inside Ecuador back in March, though a report from The New York Times found the facility was a dairy farm. A series of mysterious drone attacks have also targeted Ecuadorian fishing boats, incidents first reported by Drop Site News. A report from The Washington Post recently revealed that the attacks were part of a covert CIA operation, the details of which remain shrouded in secrecy.The US operations in and off the coast of Ecuador are part of the broader US military campaign, which has included the strikes on smaller alleged drug-running boats. The attacks, which amount to extrajudicial executions at sea, have killed at least 227 people.

Cuba Says US Waging a 'War Without Bombs' as Diplomacy at Standstill -   Lianys Torres Rivera, Cuba’s top diplomat in the US, has told Bloomberg that the Trump administration is unwilling to continue talks with the island nation and described the ramped-up US oil embargo, which has caused a devastating humanitarian crisis in the country, as a “war without bombs.”“The channel for dialogue is at a complete standstill,” Torres Rivera told the outlet, adding that the two sides are unable to set a basic agenda.Since the US attack on Venezuela to abduct President Nicolas Maduro, the US has cut off Venezuelan oil shipments to Cuba and pressured Mexico to also end its energy exports to the island, causing severe fuel shortages and bringing Cuba’s healthcare system to the brink of collapse.  President Trump has been clear that he wants Cuba to be his next military intervention, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is leading the policy, has rejected the idea of a “peaceful agreement” with the Cuban government.POLITICO reported last month that the CIA has ramped up its presence in Cuba, something the agency also did preceding the attack on Venezuela. The report said that the administration doesn’t believe it needs to end its war with Iran before taking military action against Cuba.Despite the US hostility, Torres Rivera said that Havana sought good relations with Washington. “Cuba is not a threat to the United States,” she said. “Cuba wants a relationship of respect with the United States where we can talk about our shared priorities.”Discussing the oil embargo, Torres Rivera said, “What country can function normally when they’ve only received one fuel shipment in 200 days? This is collective punishment. This is a war without bombs.”
Judge declares Rubio’s speech-based student deportations violate the Constitution – A federal judge on Friday declared that the Trump administration’s efforts to deport noncitizens for political speech run counter to the Constitution’s First and Fifth Amendments, the latest legal rebuke of the White House’s expansive immigration agenda. Northern District of California Judge Noël Wise, an appointee of former President Joe Biden, sided with the Stanford Daily, which sued Secretary of State Marco Rubio, arguing that his use of the Immigration and Nationality Act to deport noncitizen students had foreign students refraining from writing opinion pieces critical of the administration.”In the United States, freedom of speech belongs to the people,” Wise wrote in her opinion. “It is not the government’s to take.” Another plaintiff was an unnamed woman who is a lawful noncitizen in the U.S. who was previously in the country on a student visa at a school that was not Stanford and “has refrained from publishing and voicing her true opinions regarding Palestine and Israel and has deleted a social media account to guard against retaliation for past expression,” according to court documents. “Here you can simultaneously hate the content of a person’s speech and love the country that cherishes the freedom to allow it,” Wise wrote. “Zealous protection of our Constitutional right to free speech is a provocative demonstration of our country’s powerful lack of fear.” A State Department spokesperson, given anonymity to discuss internal thought processes within the agency, told POLITICO that the U.S. “is under no obligation to admit or suffer the presence of individuals who subvert our laws and deny our citizens their Constitutional rights.” “More broadly, the Department of State is committed to protecting our nation and its citizens by upholding the highest standards of national security and public safety through our visa process,” the spokesperson said. “A visa is a privilege, not a right.” The ruling comes after the administration’s campaign last year to revoke visas and seek the deportations of foreign students involved in the pro-Palestinian movement. Among those subjected to deportation proceedings were Columbia University activists Mahmoud Khalil and Mohsen Mahdawi, Tufts University doctoral grad Rümeysa Öztürk and Georgetown University scholar Badar Khan Suri.Khalil, a green card holder, was detained for more than three months after leading pro-Palestinian protests on his campus. Mahdawi, also a lawful permanent resident, was arrested after he appeared for a citizenship interview. Öztürk was detained by masked agents in Boston after the State Department revoked her student visa because of an op-ed she co-authored criticizing her school’s response to the war in Gaza.. The cases became part of a broader legal and political fight over the administration’s efforts to crack down on campus activism they viewed as not aligned with their foreign policy.

FT: Musk is ready to allow Ukraine to use Starlink to strike Russia, but the decision must be made by the White House - American businessman Elon Musk told former Defense Minister Mikhail Fedorov that he could allow Ukraine to use Starlink drones to strike Russian territory.  This is reported by the Financial Times, citing unnamed sources.However, Musk said that this decision is political and should be made in the White House. Fedorov also did not tell reporters about his conversations with the American businessman. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky asked the US President Donald Trump to influence Muskʼs decision to allow Starlink to be used to control drones during attacks on Russia.    So far, Musk has only allowed Ukrainians to use Starlink on their own territory, including Crimea and other regions occupied by Russia. Ukraine wants to use Starlink to direct drone attacks on small and mobile ballistic missile launchers that Russia is using to attack Ukraine.Trump said at the meeting with Zelensky that he would consider this request and talk to Musk, but made no promises.

US envoys Witkoff, Kushner arrive in Moscow for talks on peace in Ukraine (Reuters) - U.S. special representatives Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner arrived in Moscow on Saturday for talks on ending the war in Ukraine, with the warring sides offering to curtail attacks during the discussions. Russian spokesman Dmitry Peskov told TASS news agency that President Vladimir Putin would meet Witkoff and Kushner in the Kremlin later on Saturday. The U.S. envoys are then expected to visit Kyiv the following day. U.S. President Donald Trump suggested on Friday the U.S. had a fresh concrete proposal aimed at ending the war, which is now in its fifth year. He did not, however, elaborate on what that proposal would be. Witkoff and Kushner landed at Moscow's governmental airport where they were met by Russian presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev. A motorcade then took the three men into the city, a Reuters witness said. Dmitriev, who told Reuters in June that he had remained in contact with the U.S. negotiators during a pause in their visits to Russia, took part in all their previous meetings with Putin alongside Putin's foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov. He also played a role in negotiating U.S. sanction waivers for Russian oil this year. Peskov said in a statement posted on the Kremlin's channel in Max messenger that Putin had ordered the military not to strike Kyiv for three days, starting at midnight on Saturday, in connection with Witkoff and Kushner's visit to the Ukrainian capital. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Saturday he had spoken to the two U.S. envoys set to visit Ukraine on Sunday, adding that Ukraine was prepared to refrain from strikes on Moscow from now through Monday and expected Russia to reciprocate by halting strikes on Kyiv. The Russian Defence Ministry reported 53 Ukrainian drones in Russian airspace on Saturday, significantly fewer than the average seen in recent months. Moscow is celebrating City Day on Saturday, with hundreds of thousands of people taking part in open-air festivities across the city. A vast gulf remains between Russia and Ukraine on how to end the 4-1/2-year-old war, the deadliest in Europe since World War Two. A source close to the Kremlin, speaking before reports emerged of a possible trip by President Trump's envoys, said Putin was still intent on capturing more territory. "There is no chance of reaching an agreement regarding the front line until Putin finishes securing the remaining part of the Donetsk region," the source told Reuters, adding that the Kremlin leader was confident - based on reports from his commanders - that this would happen by the end of the year.

A 'sleeper issue' in red states this fall: Diesel prices –  Republicans have been facing a problem with voters over high gasoline prices for months — but the economic pain from near-record diesel fuel prices looks set to hit at the worst possible time for them.The war in Iran, disruptions in Russian production and refining bottlenecks have sent the price of diesel fuel rising faster than that of gasoline or crude oil, and it’s now grinding toward an all-time record just two months ahead of the midterms. That matters for Republicans in particular because diesel prices hit first — and hardest — in rural areas and affect blue-collar businesses like farming and trucking before spreading to suburban dinner tables and the rest of the economy.The White House has been seeking to show it is addressing the energy price spikes. It’s planning to host U.S. oil refiners Tuesday as the Trump administration looks for ways to bring down doggedly high fuel prices ahead of the midterms. On Monday, the average price of a gallon of diesel was $5.60, up about $1 from early July and almost $2 higher than a year ago. The all-time U.S. record $5.816 set in June 2022 is looming — and with U.S. inventories at their lowest-ever levels going into the peak diesel demand season, little relief is likely.“That shortage will be acutely felt by the farmers during the harvest, and so the inflationary consequences can be greater at harvest time,” said Kevin Book, managing director at consulting firm ClearView Energy Partners. At the same time, products will be on trucks headed to stores for the holidays, and many voters in places like Maine and Alaska will be preparing for winter by buying heating oil, which, like jet fuel, is similar to diesel.“There is a very strong history of caring about heating oil ahead of elections,” Book added.Add to that a shortage of truck drivers, said Dean Croke, principal analyst at DAT Freight & Analytics, and the combination could make diesel the “sleeper issue” of the nation’s energy inflation in the fall.“We’ve never seen this,” Croke said. “What you’re seeing is a real squeeze going on right now.”That squeeze suggests the affordability issue is going to get worse for Trump and congressional Republicans as they face inflation-weary voters in midterm elections. A POLITICO poll conducted earlier this month found a solid majority of Americans believe the Iran war, launched by Trump six months ago, has made things more expensive for their families.Croke said the driver shortage that’s pushing up truck transportation costs has been aggravated by Trump’s strict immigration policies and restrictions on foreign drivers. Others blame an aging workforce, insufficient pay and government regulations. Asked about diesel prices and trucking costs, the White House pushed back on the idea that administration policies have worsened the truck driver shortage and pointed to the administration’s “Freedom Hauler” program intended to get more veterans behind the steering wheels of big rigs. “There is no shortage of American hands and minds to grow our workforce,” said White House spokesperson Kush Desai. Gasoline and crude oil prices also remain elevated, but both have fallen well short of breaking records. Diesel fuel inventories are nearly 10 percent below year-ago levels, while commercial crude oil inventories in the United States are about average for this time of year. And while gasoline prices at about $4.08 per gallon aren’t close to all-time records, they’ve never been this high this late in the year, raising the prospect that drivers could pay the highest prices ever for the Labor Day holiday this weekend. AAA reports that for the first time, the national average in August has been above $4 per gallon every day, making it the most expensive August ever.

Trump and Rodriguez Announce US-Venezuela Oil Deal -  President Trump and Acting Venezuelan President Delcy Rodriguez have announced that Washington and Caracas have reached a major oil deal, which comes nearly nine months after the US attack on Venezuela to abduct President Nicolas Maduro.Trump first announced the new oil deal, writing on Truth Social on Friday that the US, through a private business, has “secured majority US control of more than 65 BILLION BARRELS of proven Oil Reserves in Venezuela.”The president claimed that the deal “greatly increases our Oil Supply, and will substantially lower Gas Prices for all Americans, long into the future,” though any substantial increase in Venezuelan oil production will require billions of dollars in investment and years of work. Trump claimed the project will not come “at no cost to the American Taxpayer,” but it’s unclear where the funds for the necessary investments would come from.In her announcement, Rodriguez claimed the deal involves “the development of 17 strategic fields, with a proven potential of 65 billion barrels of oil , an investment of more than $100 billion, and more than $209 billion in taxes for the State.”A US State Department official speaking to TIME Magazine described the “private company” that has been granted access to the oil fields as a “joint project of the US government and an experienced private operator in Venezuela” and said that the company has the rights for 100 years, though in other comments Rodriguez said it was a 25-year deal.  Trump suggested on Sunday that he could fill the US strategic oil reserve with Venezuelan oil under the deal, though Venezuela’s current production levels are nowhere close to the US’s. Venezuela currently produces about 1.25 million barrels per day, and more than half already goes to the US, while the US produces 13.6 million barrels of crude oil per day.“One of the things I am going to do with the Venezuelan Oil is fill up the Strategic National Reserves, which, because of Sleepy Joe Biden, has been virtually emptied. The ‘topping out’ process will begin very shortly, and is a Gift from Venezuela to the People of the United States,” Trump said.Since the January 3 attack on Venezuela, the US has tightly controlled Venezuela’s oil trade, holding its revenue and cutting off oil shipments to Cuba, where the ramped-up US oil embargo has caused a devastating humanitarian crisis. Coinciding with the announcement of the US-Venezuela oil deal was a thread posted on X from Maduro’s account, showing a picture of the Venezuelan leader in prison in the US, along with a hopeful message. “We will remain strong, serene, and confident: God is with us. God will provide. Venezuela will be reborn,” the thread read.

‘Who knows if it will survive’: Experts question how long Trump’s Venezuela oil deal will last – --Oil company executives and Venezuela experts are looking skeptically at the Trump administration’s $100 billion plan to boost Venezuelan oil production, raising questions about whether the deal will yield significant oil any time soon — or ever. Under the deal the White House announced Monday, the United States would receive a 35 percent stake in oil company North American Blue Energy Partners to drill for oil in Venezuela, the latest instance of the Trump administration taking shares in a private business. As part of the deal, the U.S. would have “preferential access” to 20 percent of the oil the company produces at cost. The partnership, if successful, would kick-start oil production in Venezuela, something President Donald Trump has wanted since his administration plucked Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro from power in January. Trump and the GOP are promoting increased imports of Venezuelan crude into the United States as a possible balm for the high fuel prices that have plagued voters since the U.S. launched its attacks against Iran in late February.  Oil executives are warning, however, that the fields targeted for production will take years to develop and expressed little confidence that the White House announced with a company few are familiar with would lead to much.“Fuck all, what is this?” said an executive at one oil company granted anonymity to speak frankly about the administration’s plans. “This thing is way too big for a company with no capabilities and no credibility.” Some in Caracas, too, said the Trump administration’s support should extend to a wider range of firms, especially smaller operators.“Investing in one company could be a starting point, but I think it needs a bigger approach,” said Alejandro Sucre, a Caracas-based investor who is pitching a fund backing oil and mining projects in Venezuela. “You’re not going to give 65 billion barrels of reserves to one company, right? That doesn’t make any sense.”It’s not just industry officials expressing doubt. Giving the U.S. ownership of an asset seen as a national treasure is already drawing heat from across the political spectrum, according to Liliana Diaz, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center.“The criticism is arriving from opposite directions,” Diaz said. ”Hardliners object on sovereignty over the resource. The opposition objects on constitutional legitimacy. Something attacked from both flanks at once tends not to last, whatever its economics.”NABEP has become one of the largest private operators in Venezuela in recent years. The agreement gives the Barbados-based company the right to develop 65 billion barrels of crude across 17 Venezuelan fields and includes a near-term goal of increasing production to more than 1 million barrels a day.

Energy Secretary Wright Says Venezuela Could More Than Double Oil Production Venezuela’s crude oil production rate could double in the next few years thanks to new deals set to be signed with U.S. and other foreign energy companies, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has said. “The investment in these deals will massively grow available oil production, which will give downward pressure on oil prices, but the biggest kink right now in gasoline and diesel prices is refining capacity,” Wright said during a one-day visit to Caracas, as quoted by OilPrice. Venezuela’s peak oil production rate was about 3 million barrels daily, but that was in the late 1990s. Since then, amid U.S. sanctions and underinvestment, production has dropped to 1.25 million barrels daily this year. Exports are running slightly above 1 million barrels daily, with the biggest portion going to U.S. refiners along the Gulf Coast.Last week, news broke that the U.S. federal government was negotiating a direct ownership stake in the country’s high-yield field that contains combined reserves of 90 billion barrels of crude. At the end of last week, President Trump called the deal “historic”, covering 17 fields with target production of 1.5 million barrels per day. The deal will involve a U.S.-based company owned by a Venezuelan tycoon, which has already been granted 14 oil deals by the Venezuelan government.The U.S. government will have rights to a 35% stake in the company plus access to 20% of North American Blue Energy Partners’ production at cost. The U.S. federal government will also have the right of first refusal for the purchase of the other 80% of NABEP’s production from Venezuelan fields.Analysts have noted that such a major boost in Venezuelan crude oil production would require substantial investments, with Rystad Energy putting the total at some $180 billion, which would need to be invested over the next ten years.

Feedstock Is Not Fuel: Why Venezuelan Crude Is No Near-Term Fix   - On August 27 2026, President Trump announced what he called the biggest oil deal in world history — a US-Venezuela agreement giving the United States majority control of more than 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan reserves, which he said would “substantially lower Gas Prices for all Americans.” The pitch landed with gasoline near $4.09 a gallon, about 27% higher than a year earlier and on track for the most expensive August on record, as a six-month Iran war and the Hormuz disruption kept a fifth of world supply under strain — and with the midterms two months away. Independent analysts noted the arithmetic fails on that timeline: the 30 to 50 million barrels Trump floated is less than half a day of global consumption, the 65 billion is an in-ground estimate rather than available supply, and any price effect would take years. Miller’s briefing goes underneath that objection to the more fundamental one: Venezuelan crude is the wrong substance to fix the shortage Americans feel at the pump. It is not a magical fix. In the near term it is not a fix at all. The shortage that bites right now is in product — diesel and jet fuel — and extra-heavy Venezuelan crude is not product. It is refinery feedstock. You cannot relieve a middle-distillate shortage with a barrel that still has to be diluted, blended, upgraded, coked, and hydroprocessed before it yields a usable gallon of anything. This is why the “turn Venezuela on” reflex fails on its own terms. Even setting aside whether Caracas can produce more, the barrels that already exist do not add supply where the market is tight. Prompt US cargoes would largely be diverted from Venezuela’s current buyers — China, India, Europe — not created on top of global production. That reshuffles refinery slates and trade routes; it does not repair a physical shortage. A barrel moved from a Chinese refiner to a US one is a change of address, not a new barrel, and certainly not a new gallon of jet fuel. The nature of the crude is the reason. Roughly three-quarters of Venezuelan production through 2028 is expected to be heavy, extra-heavy, or bitumen, with the Orinoco Belt supplying about 60%. That material is the raw input at the very front of the conversion process; the finished distillate barrel sits many capital-intensive steps downstream — coking and hydroprocessing capacity, hydrogen, refinery uptime, yields, distribution — none of which a cargo of Merey crude supplies. The price tells the same story: Merey 16 averaged $67.36/bbl in July 2026, about $12.35 under the OPEC basket, the market pricing in the cost of converting this crude into something useful. Venezuela cannot repair a current crude or middle-distillate shortage, because the missing piece was never the crude. Nor can the volume be conjured quickly. July 2026 output was near 1.1 million b/d — about a third of the 3.4 million b/d peak of 1998 — and the system that would lift it has been hollowed out: the EIA documents pipelines over 50 years old, power outages, constrained diluent, and impaired refineries, with PDVSA estimating some $8 billion for pipelines alone. Rystad puts full-cycle breakevens at $70–$80/bbl or higher and its base case adds only about 194,000 b/d through 4Q 2028; a return toward 3 million b/d would take well over $150 billion across 10–15 years. Large in-ground reserves, Miller stresses, are not deliverable supply — and the 65 billion barrels in the President’s announcement is exactly that kind of number: a resource estimate, not a delivery schedule. The strongest confirmation is not a model but the behavior of the companies that would have to fund the rebuild. At the White House on January 9 2026, shortly after the US removal of Maduro, Trump insisted the industry would spend more than $100 billion to rebuild Venezuela’s oil sector. The room did not agree. ExxonMobil’s Darren Woods told the President to his face that Venezuela is, as it stands, “uninvestable” — that durable legal frameworks, commercial terms, and stability must come first, and that Exxon would send only a technical team to assess. ConocoPhillips’ Ryan Lance said the system needs major restructuring first; both firms had their assets expropriated under Chávez, and by 30 January both Exxon and Chevron said they had no plans to raise Venezuela spending that year. The figures put before that meeting matched Miller’s: Rystad estimated roughly $110 billion merely to double output by 2030, and closer to $185 billion to climb back toward 2000-era levels. Also, Paul Saladino: "We have to deal with all the issues of collapsed infrastructure and a failed state." The one enthusiast underscores the point. Chevron — the sole US major already producing there, at nearly 250,000 b/d under a special license — says it could raise flows about 50% in under two years, but even that lifts Venezuela’s total only to just above 1.1 million b/d, against a peak near 4 million. Smaller entrants like Hunt Oil and SLB signed the first fresh PDVSA deals in August, but the supermajors best equipped to finance a rebuild are, on the record, declining to write the checks. When the people holding the capital call a resource uninvestable, it is not a near-term supply solution. Venezuela is a long-duration heavy-crude redevelopment option, not an emergency supply source — and specifically not a fuel solution. Existing cargoes can be rerouted, but that changes trade maps without adding a net barrel or a finished gallon; meaningful new production is years and well over a hundred billion dollars away, and the firms who would fund it have said so out loud. Whatever the “biggest oil deal in world history” is worth over a decade, it will not lower the price of diesel or jet fuel this year. The distillate shortage will not be solved in Caracas.

Lawsuit alleges Freedom Fuel gas stations touted by Trump are selling stolen fuel - A lawsuit filed this month alleges that there’s a simple reason some stations in the Freedom Fuel Network — the chain of discount gas stations promoted by the White House — have been able to sell gas so cheaply: Some $4 million worth of the gas is stolen.KRSM, the business named in the suit, denies this accusation.Freedom Fuel stations located around Philadelphia and New Jersey burst into public view in the run-up to the July Fourth holiday, when President Donald Trump posted praise for their discounted pump prices, writing “They are doing this because they love the U.S.A.” The White House later posted a video of drivers filling up at one of the stations and thanking Trump for the low prices — at the time, $3.47 a gallon in honor of the 47th president, though they’ve since crept up.Neither the White House nor the network’s owners would explain exactly how the stations were able to sell fuel far cheaper than their competitors. The White House told reporters that Freedom Fuel was simply a private company lowering its margins for patriotic reasons and declined to disclose the people behind it — who turned out to be a former New Jersey mayor and NFL special teams coach for the Baltimore Ravens, a GOP donor.POLITICO’s reporting also linked six of the stations via business records to a New Jersey fuel businessperson named Shamikh Kazmi who, along with his brother Syed Kazmi, have been involved in several lawsuits. The Freedom Fuel Network’s website said that despite “misinformation and baseless speculation … Freedom Fuel Network is proudly lowering prices to benefit our community and strengthen our local economy.” But according to a complaint filed Aug. 19 by Georgia-based fuel supplier Mansfield Oil Co. in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Pennsylvania, Syed Kazmi’s company KRSM acquired over 1 million gallons of fuel from a Sunoco terminal in Twin Oaks valued at around $4 million — and never paid for it. KRSM sold some of the fuel, the lawsuit alleges, to stations within the Freedom Fuel Network, which now claims to operate 29 locations. “KRSM was able to sell such fuel for such low prices and garner such publicity because it never paid Plaintiffs for such fuel,” reads the complaint. KRSM disputed the allegations in an emailed statement, calling the case “an accounting dispute over fuel invoices misplaced by Mansfield Oil” and continuing: “We will not be commenting further on this pending litigation.” A message to Freedom Fuel sent via its website was not returned. Shamikh Kazmi did not immediately respond to a request for comment. “Syed Kazmi is a principal owner, and President, of KRSM, Inc,” said Urs Broderick Furrer, a lawyer for Mansfield, in a statement. “KRSM has failed to pay for fuel that they lifted off of Mansfield’s account. That is not an accounting dispute. The fuel was delivered to at least 10 of the Freedom Fuel Network locations, as listed on the Freedom Fuel Network’s website.”

U.S. Diesel Prices Hit All-Time High as Global Fuel Squeeze Deepens | OilPrice.com -The average U.S. diesel price hit a record high late on Thursday, exceeding the previous record from 2022, as the Middle East crisis tightened global fuel markets and sent prices soaring this summer. As of Thursday afternoon, the live U.S. national average price of diesel set a new record at $5.820 per gallon, according to GasBuddy data.   This average price has now surpassed the previous daily $5.819 per gallon all-time high that occurred June 17, 2022, Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said.Record-high diesel prices are a major concern, including for the U.S. economy and the interest rate path of the Fed, as diesel is essential for economic growth and inflation in the price of goods.Moreover, diesel demand is further set to grow in the coming weeks and months with the harvest season for the farmers and the holiday season for retailers, who will need to haul more goods with trucks to stock up for the holidays.Diesel markets in the United States and globally have severely tightened in recent weeks, amid crippled fuel supply from the Middle East and Russia, due to the Iran and Ukraine wars, rising seasonal demand with the harvest season, and insufficient capacity elsewhere to compensate for the lost diesel flows from the Strait of Hormuz and Russia.The re-escalation in the Middle East and the Russian ban on diesel exports amid incessant Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries pushed middle distillate cracks to record highs this week.U.S. diesel prices have been rallying this week, and now they have hit an all-time high, which analysts, including GasBuddy, expected to occur before Labor Day.Meanwhile, the national average price of gasoline at $4.125 per gallon, per GasBuddy live data, is now 92 cents above Labor Day 2025 and on track for the most expensive gasoline price in nominal terms for a Labor Day weekend ever. This Labor Day weekend will cost Americans about $1.39 billion more on gasoline spending compared to last year, GasBuddy’s De Haan said.

US diesel prices hit a record high at $5.85 pushing up transportation costs for a long list of goods  (AP) — Diesel hit a record price in the U.S. on Friday, soaring to an average of $5.85 a gallon for the first time as the six-month war with Iran disrupts the world’s flow of fuel. Because diesel is used for many freight and delivery networks, higher diesel prices mean higher transportation costs for a long list of everyday goods. Some businesses have already passed on costs to consumers in the form of added fees on online orders and packages in the mail. And shoppers may see more and more sticker shock trickle down to store shelves. One of the most immediate strains is being felt in the grocery aisle, particularly with produce, meat and other perishable foods that need to be hauled in and restocked frequently — or even harvested using diesel-powered farm equipment. It can take time for all of those costs to trickle down. Still, experts warn that price hikes could mount the longer diesel remains expensive. A range of other products are also transported by diesel trucks, trains and boats, including clothing, cosmetics and furniture.Diesel fuel has hit a new record price in the US. AP correspondent Donna Warder reports.This could add to Republicans’ political challenges ahead of November’s midterm elections, with many voters already sour on President Donald Trump’s management of the economy and fallout of the war he launched. AP-NORC polling this summer showed 2 out of 3 U.S. adults disapproved of how Trump is handling the economy.The price for regular gasoline has also been going up, although not as fast as the price of diesel. The average price was $4.15 a gallon, compared with $3.20 at this time last year, according to motor club AAA, which says gas has never been above $4 a gallon on Labor Day.American diesel prices are now nearly 56% more expensive than they were before the U.S. and Israel launched their war against Iran in late February, when the national average sat at about $3.76 per gallon per AAA. Prices quickly climbed as the cost of crude oil — the main ingredient in diesel, as well as gasoline — soared amid supply chain disruptions across the Middle East, notably with most tanker traffic bottlenecked in the key Strait of Hormuz.Despite prices cooling some during hopes for peace earlier in the summer, oil has now renewed its climb as fighting once more escalates between the U.S. and Iran. Brent crude, the international standard, was trading at more than $95 a barrel Friday, up from roughly $70 before the war. Prices at the pump always follow closely behind.  The last time businesses and drivers saw sky-high fuel prices was in June 2022, when diesel reached nearly $5.82 a gallon on average months after the Ukraine war began and world leaders imposed sanctions against Russia, a leading oil producer.When adjusted for inflation, however, prices have been higher in the past. Ahead of the 2008 financial crisis, for example, diesel hit about $4.74 a gallon — equivalent to $7.20 in 2026, according to the government’s latest data. And 2022’s record of nearly $5.82 would be about $6.56 this year when accounting for inflation.

China Rare Earth Firms Freeze U.S. Exports Weeks Before Xi-Trump Summit   - Despite having secured export licenses, some Chinese rare earth producers have stopped shipping these materials to the United States over fears of repercussions from China's authorities, sources familiar with the development told Reuters.The renewed standoff in rare earths comes weeks before Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to visit Washington for a summit with U.S. President Donald Trump at the end of this month.A few Chinese suppliers have been refusing to export rare earths to the U.S. since the beginning of August, according to Reuters' sources.That's when China announced is it placing the Responsible Business Alliance (RBA), the organization behind the Responsible Minerals Initiative (RMI) and its RMAP assessments, together with the labor rights organization Verité, on its countermeasure list.The Chinese rare earth firms are wary of being punished by China for complying with the RMI guidance and due diligence procedures, one of Reuters' sources said.Other firms from China have been avoiding rare earths exports to the U.S. despite having licenses because they have preferred not to be entangled in the geopolitics and unpredictable trade behavior of the two rivals.Despite improvements in some areas, such as targeted policies and investment support for rare earth supply chains outside China, the global critical minerals market remains heavily concentrated in leading suppliers, with China being the leader in the mining and refining of many of the metals, International Energy Agency said in a July report.The global critical minerals market remains highly concentrated, and new threats to supply security have emerged in recent months as China has curbed exports of some rare earth elements, the IEA said.The Chinese government introduced major export controls on heavy rare earth elements last year.Although further expanded controls have been suspended until November 2026, their full implementation – if China decides to go through with it – could put an estimated $6.5 trillion per year of downstream production outside China at risk across the automotive, high-tech, defense, and energy sectors, the IEA said in its annual Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 report in July.

Auto companies call for ban on Chinese-made cars - A group representing American automakers sent a letter Thursday to congressional leaders asking for a “permanent ban” on Chinese-made cars in the U.S. John Bozzella, the Alliance for Automotive Innovation’s CEO and president, described in the letter China’s manufacturing industry as “rooted in a well-documented pattern of unfair trade, subsidies, intellectual property theft and surveillance.” Bozzella addressed his request to Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.), Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) — urging them to back a “permanent ban on the sale, import and manufacture of Chinese connected vehicles,” before the 119th Congress concludes in January.  “Right now, Chinese automakers are dumping subsidized vehicles with connected software and hardware around the world,” Bozzella wrote, adding that China “is capturing market share” in Europe, Australia, Southeast Asia, Mexico and South America.“This hasn’t happened inside the U.S. yet, but given the scale and urgency of this threat, we urge you to enact a Chinese vehicle, software and hardware ban before adjourning this year and make this policy the law of the land,” he added. The Alliance for Automotive Innovation, a trade organization representing car manufacturers, represents the “entire” U.S. auto industry, per its website.The Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee in July approved legislation that proposed banning companies with more than 15 percent Chinese ownership from selling vehicles in the U.S.Under the bill, Mercedes-Benz would be unable to sell cars in the country, as Chinese investors hold nearly 20 percent of the German automaker’s shares.  Reps. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) and John Moolenaar (R-Mich.) have introduced similar legislation in the House. Their bill, the “Connected Vehicle Security Act of 2026,” has 72 additional co-sponsors from both sides of the aisle. Referencing those pieces of legislation, Bozzella wrote that lawmakers “are determined to get the details of this policy right.”He added, “Enacting a permanent ban on Chinese vehicles and high-risk hardware and software in the 119th Congress will send a clear and bipartisan message that China’s strategy to dominate global automotive manufacturing will be met with a national security policy response from the American government.”

North Korea Says US Continuing Hostile Policy by Holding Trilateral Drills With South Korea and Japan, Calling for 'Denuclearization' -  North Korea has said that the US is continuing a hostile policy toward Pyongyang despite President Trump recently scaling back joint US-South Korean war games and praising his relationship with North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un.In a statement carried by the Korean Central News Agency, a North Korean Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that Pyongyang has seen the “US stand of confrontation with the [Democratic People’s Republic of Korea] being more clearly expressed recently.”The spokesperson cited a recent statement from the US State Department saying the US remains committed to the “denuclearization” of the Korean Peninsula, which came after denuclearization was left out of a readout of a call between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his South Korean counterpart, Cho Hyun. The North Korean spokesperson also cited the fact that the US would hold war games with South Korea and Japan, known as Freedom Edge, that will begin on September 7. The trilateral military exercise began in 2024, following a Camp David summit hosted by President Biden and attended by the leaders of South Korea and Japan in 2023.The US has been fostering the repair of relations between Tokyo and Seoul and encouraging a military alliance between the two countries as part of its strategy against China. The North Korean spokesperson said that the trilateral war games “constitute a threat to the DPRK and regional countries.”The spokesperson also defended Pyongyang’s nuclear arsenal, saying North Korea’s “nukes serve as an absolute guarantee for defending its sovereignty and that the nuclear weapons in the possession of the DPRK and their sustained bolstering are the most responsible and correct option for ensuring regional peace and security.”The spokesperson added that there is “no change in our policy toward the U.S. to respond to its invariable hostile policy with the toughest stand to the last.” North Korea also recently denounced a new US arms sale to South Korea. President Trump has said he seeks to meet with Kim by the end of this year, but so far there’s no sign Pyongyang is interested in a summit, though Kim’s sister, Kim Yo Jong, recently said the two leaders “still have an excellent relationship.” Trump has suggested that he scaled back the joint US-South Korean drills over Seoul’s position on the Iran war, but the move aligns with the agenda of South Korean President Lee Jae Myung, who has proposed direct talks with North Korea and seeks more military independence from the US.

Canada PM Carney hits Trump, Sec. Lutnick over trade, tariff row -   Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney on Thursday returned fire after Trump administration Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick claimed Ottawa tanked trade talks with the U.S. for political purposes. “I don’t think, with all respect, appointed, unelected Cabinet members in the United States are experts on Canadian politics,” Carney said during a news conference in Thunder Bay in Northwestern Ontario. “We are always going to stand up for what’s in the best interest of Canada,” Carney said, after accusing the U.S. of making different claims about their red lines for a trade deal now that negotiations have been scrapped. But the prime minister maintained that a deal benefiting both Canada and the U.S. is possible. “We’re ready to sit down and strike that deal when the Americans are ready,” he said. President Donald Trump later Thursday morning appeared less open to rekindling the U.S. and Canada’s chilly relations, however. “It is very good for Canadian Politicians like Prime Minister Carney to make President Donald J. Trump ‘the enemy,’ until their Economy collapses,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post. “Then it will prove to be very bad for Politics — Worse than anything that has ever happened to a Canadian Politician. Just watch!” Carney was responding to Lutnick’s claim on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” a day earlier that the Canadians “blew up” a nearly complete trade deal with the U.S. “for political reasons only.” Canada treated Trump “disrespectfully,” but they will change their tune after mid-October “because their elections will be behind them,” Lutnick asserted. Canada has upcoming special elections, or by-elections, in a handful of ridings, or parliamentary districts.

Canada turns its critical minerals into leverage against Trump— Canada is no longer talking about critical minerals as an asset to share with the United States, as it slaps back at the Trump administration in its bitterly escalating trade war. “I don’t get mad, I get even,” Energy and Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson said Thursday, capping a tour meant to showcase the mines and electricity projects Canada is racing to build in response to President Donald Trump’s economic aggression. In Prince George, B.C., Hodgson broke ground on the North Coast Transmission Line, set to be running by 2032 — an expansion of the provincial grid that would double electricity capacity in British Columbia, powering new critical mineral mines near the Alaskan border and liquefied natural gas shipments to Asia. “Nothing would make me happier than when the United States asks us for more electricity to say, ‘You know what, we’ve got a lot of mines we need to develop in northern British Columbia,’” Hodgson said. “Nothing would make me happier than just saying, ‘You know what, we’re going to use all our electricity here. We’re going to build new mines, new processing facilities.’” Although Trump keeps insisting otherwise, the U.S. relies heavily on Canadian resources. Canada supplied more than 80 percentof U.S. electricity imports in 2025, according to the Canada Energy Regulator. U.S. Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra has singled out potash as something America needs. Shortly after arriving in Ottawa in April 2025, Hoekstra told POLITICO that Trump was “very interested” in Canada’s energy and critical minerals. Washington views Canada’s stockpiles as a bulwark against Chinese dominance of the global market in critical minerals essential to defense, quantum computing, artificial intelligence and virtually every piece of tech. Canada and the United States have a cooperation agreement on critical minerals that took root in the Joe Biden administration and continues under the Trump administration. After walking away from trade negotiations last month, Prime Minister Mark Carney signaled he was losing interest and patience in cooperating with the U.S. on critical minerals. He said he would continue finding deals and keep pursuing them elsewhere, suggesting Washington had squandered an opportunity to cooperate with Canada. “That is something that is a missed opportunity as a consequence of what’s happened, but we didn’t cause it to them,” Carney said when POLITICO asked about the role of critical minerals at his Aug. 22 press conference, the morning after he called his negotiators back to Ottawa. “Kind of thing you do as part of a trade deal,” Carney quipped. “One of the reasons to do a trade deal with Canada.” Ottawa has been courting alternatives. Carney boasted of 50 deals in the past 12 months, “on the order of C$50 billion worth of transactions” including stockpiling. Asked by POLITICO whether that included the demand for exclusive access to Canada’s minerals, Carney shot back: “We would never give exclusive access.” The White House did not respond to a request for comment. Ahead of this year’s G7, Canada extended a behind-the-scenes offer to alliance members for “priority access” to Canada's critical minerals stockpile, according to a letter seen by POLITICO from Hodgson. Carney said there had been potential for cooperation based on Canada’s initiative during its G7 presidency to create a critical minerals alliance, along with American efforts led by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. British Columbia Premier David Eby, an outspoken Trump critic, noted Thursday that Americans need power from his province and at the same time, “the president continues to denigrate and insult the massive contribution that British Columbians and Canadians make to American energy security.” Ontario Premier Doug Ford has suggested Canada should threaten to cut off critical mineral supplies. But given their strategic importance to the U.S. — and especially in light of Trump’s reaction to the breakdown in talks, including renaming Lake Ontario — playing hardball risks further attacks on the Canadian sovereignty that Carney seeks to protect.

Trump, 80, Struggles to Stay Awake in Weird Oval Office Display  - President Donald Trump again appeared to drift in and out of sleep during a scheduled Oval Office event on Friday. Sitting at the Resolute Desk surrounded by Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins and ranchers from around the country, including at least three men in cowboy hats, Trump visibly struggled to stay awake as Rollins discussed the two executive orders he had just signed.  With her body turned toward Trump, and her words directed at the aging president, Rollins appeared to be attempting to engage him so that he would not succumb to the delights of slumber. Trump repeatedly blinked and let his eyes close for long periods. Having already signed the two orders aimed at protecting and promoting American beef, Trump appeared uninterested in what was happening around him. At one point, he closed his eyes as Rollins was speaking directly to him. This is not the first time Trump has struggled to stay awake during an official event. During an hour-long event last month that gave the elderly president a chance to laud new agreements with drug companies, Trump closed his eyes for more than 20 seconds. There have now been at least 22 occasions on which Trump has been caught appearing to snooze at public events.

FBI Now Says Past Prostitution And Theft May Not Disqualify Applicants -- The FBI has reportedly loosened some of its automatic disqualifiers for prospective employees, allowing applicants with certain past conduct to be considered on a case-by-case basis, according to The Times Of India. Under the revised standards, previously hiring a sex worker is no longer necessarily disqualifying. Applicants may still be eligible if it happened fewer than three times and the most recent incident was more than 10 years ago.The change partly accounts for cases in which prostitution was legal where it occurred. However, soliciting prostitution while holding certain positions of trust, including jobs in law enforcement, education, health care, finance or law, can still result in automatic rejection. The Times of India article says that past theft from an employer may also be overlooked if it occurred more than three years ago.The FBI has also reportedly changed how it treats incidents involving bestiality or animal cruelty, allowing consideration when the conduct occurred before the applicant turned 18.The bureau pushed back on suggestions that it is lowering its overall standards or opening the door to applicants with histories of criminal sexual behavior. An FBI spokesperson said the changes partly address applicants who suffered sexual abuse and whose experiences could complicate polygraph questions involving prostitution, bestiality or similar subjects through no fault of their own.The FBI maintains that it continues to impose some of the federal government’s strictest suitability requirements.

FBI probes massive driver's license data leak– The FBI’s New Orleans field office says it is investigating after a report surfaced that millions of driver’s licenses belonging to U.S. and Canadian residents may have appeared on the dark web. Earlier this week, Brian Krebs, an independent journalist, reported that he had found a dark web site selling the digital scans of more than 153 million driver’s licenses. He described finding the records of multiple friends and family members, noting that several of those he spoke with reported renting a car around the same time as the timestamps included with the digital scans. Krebs alleged that some of the businesses these individuals reported sharing their driver’s license with work with IDScan.net, a company that verifies IDs. A representative for the company reportedly told Krebs the matter was under investigation. Nexstar contacted IDScan.net for comment but did not receive a response. In his report, Krebs explained that the FBI confirmed it was investigating an apparent breach involving IDScan.net. When reached for comment, the agency’s New Orleans field office told Nexstar, “The FBI can confirm that it is looking into the incident. Due to the ongoing nature of the investigation, we decline to comment further.” Nexstar has not been able to confirm the validity of the dark web posting cited by Krebs. In an update to his Wednesday posting, Krebs said the website in which the digital scans were posted had been removed. Nexstar has also not been able to confirm Krebs’ reporting that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s driver’s license was included in the alleged leak. An official confirmed with Nexstar that the War Department is “aware of these reports and is evaluating them.” Zach Edwards, a threat researcher at the cybersecurity company Infoblox, told Reuters that this breach, if it is as wide-ranging as alleged, may be the largest on record. Information associated with a driver’s license is “enough data to pass identity verification checks that most financial institutions and government agencies still treat as reliable,” Unfortunately, it probably wouldn’t be the first time. There have been several data breaches in recent years, including two 2024 incidents exposing billions in personal information records and the sensitive information (like Social Security numbers) of more than 70 million people. Simple measures, like freezing your credit, can reduce your exposure for these types of crimes of opportunity. That can prevent bad actors from using your Social Security number to take out loans or open new credit cards, for example. Freezing your credit prevents any new credit, like loans or new credit cards, from being approved, whether it’s legitimate or not. You are able to freeze (and “thaw,” or lift the freeze on) your credit report for free with the three major credit reporting agencies: Equifax, Experian, and TransUnion.If someone has used your driver’s license, the Federal Trade Commission recommends reporting it immediately to your nearest Department of Motor Vehicles agency. Your state may be able to flag your license number in the event that another attempt is made to use it. The FTC also suggests checking, freezing, and monitoring your credit, as mentioned above. While it is widely believed our personal information, like Social Security numbers, is already out there, experts note not everyone who has been victimized in a data breach will end up victimized by identity theft.

Woman who exposed FBI official for working with Russian oligarch found dead -- Allison Guerriero, a security researcher whose information helped expose the criminal conduct of former FBI counterintelligence official Charles McGonigal, has been found dead at her home in Boynton Beach, Florida. Hours before her death, Guerriero posted a series of messages on X, formerly Twitter, criticizing Representative Jim Jordan, the FBI and McGonigal. McGonigal was arrested in 2023 and was sentenced to 50 months in prison and then was later sentenced in a separate case to 28 months in prison in 2024. He pleaded guilty to secretly colluding with a Russian oligarch and also admitted to receiving $225,000 in cash from someone with ties to the Albanian government. “I committed a felony and as a former FBI special agent it causes me extreme emotional and physical pain,” McGonigal told the judge before he was sentenced. “I stand before you today with a deep sense of remorse.” It’s unclear what caused her death, and authorities are waiting on a report from the medical examiner. Newsweek reached out to the Boynton Beach, Florida, police department for comment via email but did not receive a response in time for publication. Guerriero was a security researcher who became publicly known after providing information to federal authorities about her former romantic partner, McGonigal, a longtime FBI official who once led the bureau’s counterintelligence division in New York. Guerriero alerted investigators after becoming concerned about McGonigal’s behavior, including allegations that he was carrying large amounts of cash and maintaining unusual relationships with foreign-connected individuals. When she asked McGonigal about the cash, he reportedly told her that he won a bet on a baseball game. At the time, he was married with two children. “Charlie McGonigal knew everybody in the national security and law-enforcement world,” Guerriero said in an interview with Business Insider. “He fooled them all. So why should I feel bad that he was able to deceive me?” Her tip reportedly helped launch a broader federal investigation into McGonigal’s activities. Guerriero had been involved in an approximately 18-month relationship with McGonigal. After the relationship ended, she became increasingly vocal about his conduct and the FBI’s handling of the case. She frequently posted on social media and gave interviews discussing the scandal and calling for greater scrutiny of senior law enforcement officials. Her information helped investigators uncover details about McGonigal’s connections to foreign figures and contributed to the investigation that eventually resulted in his arrest and conviction. In the years that followed, Guerriero remained outspoken about the case and argued that some aspects of the scandal had not received sufficient public attention. During McGonigal’s sentencing, the judge praised Guerriero for her “extraordinary contributions” to counterespionage operations on behalf of the United States. In an obituary for Guerriero, her family wrote that she found her “niche” in the security field after trying several different occupations. They added that she was also working for Roger Stone when she died. The family is holding a memorial service on Thursday for her. “Allison’s over-the-top interest in law-enforcement and fighting evildoers kept her adjacent to all kinds of characters who seemed like they were from 1950s era G.I. Joe type comic books,” her friend, Ken Kurson, wrote in a eulogy for her. McGonigal served as the Special Agent in Charge of the FBI’s Counterintelligence Division in New York, one of the bureau’s most sensitive national security positions. According to the Department of Justice, McGonigal pleaded guilty in 2023 to conspiracy charges stemming from his work for Oleg Deripaska, a Russian oligarch under U.S. sanctions since 2018. The DOJ said McGonigal agreed to provide services to Deripaska in violation of federal sanctions laws and participated in a money-laundering conspiracy. In his role as special agent in charge, he also participated in and supervised investigations into Russian oligarchs, including Deripaska. McGonigal tried to find derogatory information about a rival oligarch, Vladimir Potanin, and his corporate interests, which Deripaska was fighting for control of. The Justice Department said McGonigal worked to investigate a rival Russian oligarch in exchange for concealed payments linked to Deripaska. Prosecutors alleged that he and others attempted to hide Deripaska’s involvement through shell companies, forged documents and coded communications. In December 2023, McGonigal was sentenced to 50 months in federal prison. Announcing the sentence, the Justice Department described his conduct as a betrayal of the trust placed in him as a senior law enforcement official. He was sentenced in 2024 to 28 months for concealing information from the FBI about payments received from a link to the Albanian government. The DOJ said the sentences are to run consecutively. Public records indicate he is still imprisoned. The case shocked many in the intelligence and law enforcement communities because McGonigal had spent years overseeing investigations aimed at identifying and countering foreign threats to U.S. national security.

BLM Moves to Fast-Track Oil Permits in Alaska Petroleum Reserve - The Bureau of Land Management wants to cut the permitting time for some oil and gas projects in Alaska’s National Petroleum Reserve to as little as 60 days, according to a Friday press release. The proposed rule would replace separate case-by-case reviews for qualifying production sites with a standardized process covering common, repeatable activities that BLM says have already been studied extensively. Rights-of-way and some drilling permit applications meeting predetermined criteria could receive decisions within 60 days. The National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska covers roughly 23 million acres on Alaska’s North Slope. About 3.5 million acres are currently under lease. There are considerably more leases to develop after this year. BLM’s March NPR-A auction drew bids on 187 tracts and generated more than $163 million, the highest revenue ever collected in a lease sale for the reserve. The auction also produced the largest number of tracts receiving bids and the second-largest acreage total sold in a single NPR-A sale. ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, and a Repsol-Shell consortium were among the successful bidders. Getting acreage leased and getting oil out of it are two very different timelines in Alaska. Operators still need drilling permits, rights-of-way and approvals for roads, pipelines, pads and other permanent infrastructure. BLM says more than two decades of permitting work in the reserve gives it enough environmental data to standardize reviews for projects similar to infrastructure already approved there. The proposal followed a petition from the Alaska Oil and Gas Association requesting a uniform approval process and a 60-day timeline for qualifying projects. BLM is preparing an environmental impact statement alongside the new rule. The agency has already rescinded a 2024 rule that restricted development in the reserve and reopened nearly 82% of the NPR-A to oil and gas leasing. The administration has also expanded leasing elsewhere in Alaska, including this year’s first auction of drilling rights in the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. The NPR-A proposal now enters a 60-day public comment period ending November 9. For companies holding acreage from the record March auction, the more immediate number is 60 days, which is the proposed clock for turning at least some permit applications into decisions.

Power plant endangerment repeal enters White House review - The White House is reviewing a new proposal to permanently end EPA’s regulation of power plants’ carbon emissions. The supplemental proposal entered White House review on Monday, according to the Office of Management and Budget’s website. It is expected to be released along with another rule to undo 2024 standards that required coal-fired and some new gas-fired power plants to capture and store most of their greenhouse gas emissions.EPA did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The draft would repeal not only the Biden-era rules, but EPA’s broader authority to regulate climate pollution from the power sector via the Clean Air Act. The power industry is the largest industrial source of greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S.The proposal is expected to mirror EPA’s repeal of the so-called endangerment finding. But it could also complicate arguments the oil industry and the Justice Department are making in a landmark case before the Supreme Court this fall that the Clean Air Act makes EPA the “primary regulator” of industrial greenhouse gas emissions. EPA issued a proposal last summer that aimed to bar future administrations from regulating the power sector for greenhouse gases. But the draft advanced arguments that contradicted a separate rule that EPA finalized in February that rescinded a key scientific finding that greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles endanger public health and welfare. It’s unclear when EPA will issue the repeal package. Utilities have been anxious for it to finalize a rollback of the carbon capture and sequestration requirements, but the agency might hold off until after the Supreme Court hears oral arguments in Suncor v. Boulder on Oct. 5.

Is electricity dimming oil’s political power? - Political fortunes across the globe once rose and fell with the price of gasoline. Increasingly, they are tied to the monthly electric bill. That new reality has political leaders across North America and Europe rushing to stave off spiking power prices with an urgency unimaginable even a year ago. In the United Kingdom, Prime Minister Andy Burnham eliminated a tax on electricity shortly after walking through the doors of 10 Downing Street. Marine Le Pen, the leader of France’s right-wing National Rally, wants to slash power levies too — and exit Europe’s electricity market. And in the United States, voter anger over data centers’ potential impact on power bills has led governors like Pennsylvania Democrat Josh Shapiro and Texas Republican Greg Abbott to suddenly impose restrictions on the energy-hungry facilities they once championed. “They are very concerned about their utility bills and the cost of electricity, which is something that I feel like I didn’t really see in previous cycles,” said Oscar De Los Santos, who leads the Arizona Democrats trying to ride a wave of voter discontent to victory in the state’s House of Representatives for the first time in 60 years. The drivers of higher costs vary by country, but the growing transatlantic sensitivity can be traced back to the same source: The world is using more power than ever. That trend is already reshaping the political map. Populist candidates as varied as progressive Democrats in the U.S. and far-right members of Alternative for Germany, or AfD, are turning high electricity prices into a political rallying cry. In Europe, the focus on electricity is an outgrowth of the continent’s attempts to cut climate pollution and curb its reliance on imported fossil fuels. Data centers are the story in the U.S., with Democrats and Republicans alike eager to position themselves as the defenders of low electric bills with November’s midterm elections on the horizon. President Donald Trump is promoting a plan that asks technology companies to generate or pay for the electricity of their AI facilities. In Arizona, Democrats are trumpeting their efforts to end data center tax credits in a bid to win back the State House this fall. “You ask people, ‘Well, why do you think your electricity bill is so high?’ And more and more and more people were talking about AI data centers,” De Los Santos said. Oil is still king of global energy markets, and politics. But a shift is underway. Last year, global electricity demand grew at twice the pace of total energy demand, as new industries hoover up electrons. Power consumption from electric vehicles grew 38 percent in 2025, while data center electricity demand rose 17 percent, according to the International Energy Agency. Buildings were the single-largest driver of electricity demand growth last year, as rising incomes and extreme heat prompted more people worldwide to install air conditioners and heat pumps. “There are a whole bunch of macro and micro factors that are conspiring to make electricity a lot more important than it has been,” said Eurasia Group Chair Gerald Butts, who has served as an adviser to two Canadian prime ministers, including Mark Carney. “We’re just using it for more stuff, right? And the prospect of using it for exponentially more stuff over the next 25 years is, I think, a pretty strong bet.” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol has labeled the coming decades “the Age of Electricity.”“When somebody asks me, ‘is energy cheap or expensive today?’ I say it is $95 per barrel,” Birol said, referring to the price of oil in a recent interview. “Now, very soon when they ask me, ‘is energy cheaper?’ I will say 6 cents per kilowatt-hour. It will be the unit that people will look into.”The mounting pace of global electrification is one of the reasons why oil prices — while high — didn’t rise as much as expected after the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran earlier this year.Analysts initially predicted prices would hit at least $150 per barrel as Iran all but closed the Strait of Hormuz and global supply contracted. But the rising number of electric vehicles cut into global demand for crude, Butts said. In recent weeks, the international benchmark for oil has hovered between $85-$95 a barrel. “It’s a big macro market signal that oil is just not as geographically constrained or as essential as it used to be,” Butts said. “Essentially, oil is not worth what it once was.”

Chief Justice John Roberts breaks with conservatives in White House ballroom ruling - Chief Justice John Roberts broke with his conservative colleagues in a Supreme Court decision Monday that allowed construction on the proposed White House ballroom to continue, saying the ruling upsets the separation of powers. Roberts, joined by the three liberal justices, contended that the majority’s reasoning likely infringed on Congress’s power of the purse and authority to regulate federal property in the nation’s capital. “Today’s decision is no victory for the separation of powers,” Roberts wrote in a six-page dissenting opinion. The chief justice noted that the $400 million ballroom project was “likely unlawful” because Congress had not expressly approved funds for it, pushing back on the Trump administration’s argument that it fell within the scope of the president’s authority to conduct routine maintenance and upkeep of the White House. “That appropriation of a couple million dollars for ordinary Executive Residence maintenance and repairs likely does not authorize the President to use hundreds of millions of dollars in private donations to tear down the East Wing and construct a ballroom in its stead,” Roberts wrote, referring to the nearly $2.5 million set aside in 2024. The divided Supreme Court did not weigh the legality of the construction, concluding only that a preservationist group likely lacked standing to sue over one member’s “mere offense, disagreement, or distaste” for the project. The decision lifted a lower court block on the above-ground portion of the work, allowing the administration to proceed with the sprawling addition that it now argues is critical to national security. Roberts disagreed with the majority’s finding, arguing that the member’s “decades-long membership” in the National Trust for Historic Preservation and commitment to that cause was enough to meet the legal threshold for standing. “She has not simply alleged ‘distress at or disagreement with’ the ballroom’s construction,” he wrote. “She instead has alleged that the ballroom’s construction would damage what for her is a concrete and particularized interest in physically viewing, appreciating, and studying a historic building as it is.” The chief justice also reasoned that this case was different than prior cases in which taxpayers were denied standing simply because they disliked a certain federal policy. “The White House is not just any building, and—when it comes to historic preservation—[Alison] Hoagland is not just any person,” Roberts wrote, referring to the National Trust member. The chief justice had previously allowed the construction to continue on a temporary basis while the court considered whether to intervene.

CEO of firm hired to clean up reflecting pool accused of voter fraud --Donald Trump’s administration has turned to yet another contractor with a checkered legal past as it tries to fix the botched renovations at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool. The monument has been closed for months after Trump’s $16 million “repairs” to the century-old pool resulted in peeling blue sealant and a record-breaking algal bloom that turned the water slime green. Originally, the task of installing a water-purification system to prevent algal blooms fell to a long-time Trump supporter and two-time felon who pleaded guilty to bribing a congressman and violating campaign finance laws. Now, the Department of the Interior has awarded a $2.7 million contract to clean the pool to a Massachusetts-based company whose chief executive is being prosecuted for election fraud, according to CNN. Renewable energy company American Ag Energy will repair and maintain the pool’s sewage and purification systems, according to the official contract description.  The one-year contract could be extended for another five years and grow to up to $8.8 million, CNN reported. The company’s CEO, Richard Rosen, was convicted last year of voter fraud for casting ballots in the 2016 election in both Massachusetts and New Hampshire.

Former labor secretary created ‘toxic’ atmosphere, drank at work and misused funds, report says -Former Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer violated multiple department policies under her tenure, including by creating a hostile work environment, using government funds for personal travel and having an inappropriate relationship with an employee, according to a department watchdog. The labor department inspector general’s 44-page report, released Thursday, is the culmination of an exhaustive investigation that began in early January after an anonymous complaint alleging misconduct. The report also accuses other former top department officials who worked with Chavez-DeRemer of multiple violations of Labor Department policy. More than three-dozen witnesses described working with Chavez-DeRemer, who led the department from March 2025 to April 2026, as “toxic, intimidating and humiliating,” according to the report. The inspector general’s office, however, didn’t “determine whether the conduct described in the evidence above was sufficient to constitute unlawful discrimination, retaliation, or a hostile work environment” under federal law. The report touched on the previously reported inappropriate relationship that Chavez-DeRemer had with a member of her security detail. The inspector general said they “developed and maintained an inappropriately close and unprofessional relationship,” but that it “did not, however, obtain sufficient direct evidence to establish that the relationship was romantic or sexual.” In April 2025, the report said that Chavez-DeRemer requested an off-the-record stop during personal travel to Oregon at a place that featured “partially nude dancers” with the member of the protective detail with whom she had a relationship. The secretary asked another agent to take money from her purse and “drop the bills one by one onto the partially nude woman.” Some of the other policy violations that Chavez-DeRemer committed, according to the inspector general, included improperly combining personal and official travel, consuming and storing alcohol on federal property and accepting gifts without reporting them under ethics rules. The gifts included an alligator-hide wallet, work boots, baby gifts and cowboy hats, the report said. The inspector general also said that Chavez-DeRemer directed her employees to perform personal tasks for her, including going to her residence during work hours to organize her bedroom closet. Reached for comment, Chavez-DeRemer’s attorney, Nick Oberheiden, said in a statement, “Secretary Chavez-DeRemer did not violate any law. That’s important to point out and contrast to the premature and incorrect speculation of some. Beyond this, Ms. Chavez-DeRemer has successfully pursued new projects as a private citizen.” Chavez-DeRemer resigned in April amid the allegations of misconduct. At the time, Oberheiden said the decision was “not the result of legal wrongdoings. It is a personal decision.”

Poll shows nearly 90% of Americans believe government corruption is widespread - A record number of Americans believe there is widespread corruption in the U.S. government, reaching the highest level of distrust in two decades, according to a Gallup poll released Wednesday. The survey of 1,000 people conducted in May and June reflects the surging bipartisan frustration with the country’s political institutions and the people who run them. Nearly 90 percent of U.S. adults said corruption was widespread in the government, a 10 percentage point jump from last year, according to Gallup’s poll. The United States also has the highest level of perceived government corruption compared with other countries with advanced economies as of 2025, the year of the latest available data. Since 2006, the percentage of Americans perceiving widespread corruption stayed mostly in the 70s, Gallup’s data shows. It began to sharply rise in 2024, driven by Democrats. In 2024, when Joe Biden was president, 57 percent of Democrats said government corruption was widespread. In 2025, after President Donald Trump returned to the White House, that percentage rose to 76 and climbed to 91 this year, according to Gallup’s data. As November has grown nearer, Democratic leaders have homed in on anti-corruption messages in their quest to retake Congress. Democrats repeatedly accused the president of breaking his promise to get rid of waste, fraud and abuse in Washington, instead enriching himself, his family and his allies through the federal government. During an event to mark the final 100 days before the midterm elections, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-New York) debuted a new line in his stump speech: “We are going to hold the crooks accountable.” On the other side of the aisle, Republicans’ view of corruption has stayed relatively steady since 2024, suggesting that their perception of the issue does not hinge on the party in power as much as it does for Democrats. This year, 83 percent of Republicans and 90 percent of independents said corruption was widespread. That finding suggests that Americans are accessing political news and information — and that corruption is breaking through as an issue, said David Szakonyi, a political science professor at George Washington University. “There is a broad base consensus for the fact that something is broken in Washington,”

192 House Democrats Refuse To Condemn Socialism As Party Scrambles To Avert DSA Civil War -It is not surprising whatsoever that nearly every House Democrat voted against a Republican-led resolution condemning socialism, giving Republicans fresh campaign material for the upcoming midterm elections amid the rise of the cancerous Democratic Socialists of America within the increasingly unhinged left-wing party. The nonbinding resolution, introduced by Republican Rep. Jeff Crank of Colorado, called on Congress to denounce “socialism in all its forms,” reject socialist policies in the US and support implementation of President Trump’s election-security legislation. The measure passed 220-192. All Republicans supported it, along with eight Democrats: Kathy Castor, Vicente Gonzalez, Henry Cuellar, Darren Soto, Jared Golden, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, Don Davis and Gabe Vasquez. “The DSA candidate platform stands in direct contrast to our republic,” Crank, who introduced the measure, said ahead of the vote. “Getting rid of the United States Senate, open borders, defunding the police, allowing non-citizens to vote in federal elections; those aren’t consistent with our Constitution.”

Democrats worry rising socialism turning off Hispanic voters --Democrats have been trying to regain lost ground with Hispanic voters since the bruising 2024 election. But as they attempt to win back voters who migrated to the GOP, Democrats are also gripping with the rise of democratic socialism within their own party — a movement they see as a turnoff to some Hispanic voters, particularly the older set who hail from nations like Cuba and Venezuela. Democratic strategists say while they may prevail in the midterms, they worry that the socialism label will take hold in the 2028 presidential election if centrists in their party don’t sound the alarm. “Socialism is a nonstarter in places like Florida, where there are big swaths of Hispanic voters,” said one Democratic strategist in the state. “The word in and of itself is toxic.” The strategist pointed to Florida state Rep. Angie Nixon, the Democratic candidate who is running for Senate in the Sunshine State. Her association with the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) will hurt her chances of winning in Florida, said the strategist. It’s been noted that the DSA did not endorse Nixon, who was well known in Florida for her progressive views before her upset win in a Democratic primary this summer over Alex Vindman, who had been a heavy favorite. But the strategist said Nixon joining the DSA will speak volumes with voters, adding, “You can’t be half-pregnant.” “The toothpaste is out of the tube, and I don’t think she can navigate that. She’s getting all of the negatives and that’s why it’s going to hurt her chances,” the strategist said. Polling shows that democratic socialism has yet to gain traction among Hispanic Democrats. A Pew Research Center survey released earlier this year found that just 20 percent of Democratic and Democratic-leaning Hispanic voters viewed political leaders who identify as democratic socialists favorably — compared with 21 percent of Black Democrats, 30 percent of Asian Democrats and 40 percent of white voters in their party. The skepticism speaks to views on socialism more broadly. A 2022 Pew survey shows that more than half of Latino respondents had a “positive impression” of capitalism, while 53 percent of those polled had a negative impression of socialism. Just 41 percent said they had a definitive positive view of socialism. The breakdown was even more stark by national origin: For example, 82 percent of Cuban respondents said they have a “very or somewhat negative impression of socialism.” The same poll revealed that among Puerto Rican adults, 64 percent also had a negative view of socialism. The skepticism was less pronounced among Hispanic respondents of Mexican and South American origin: The survey showed that 51 percent and 47 percent of those voters, respectively, viewed socialism through a negative lens. Democratic strategist Luis Miranda, who worked in the Obama White House as the director of Hispanic media, said he understands some of the concern among Democrats, as someone who was born in Colombia and raised in the United States. “I saw what the extremes did in the country I was born in, both the far right and the far left,” Miranda said. “For a lot of Latinos, they’re going to feel that intrinsically.” “It’s not surprising that there would be some skepticism of DSA,” he added. Miranda said last year’s election of New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani (D), who is a self-proclaimed democratic socialist, has “helped to ease some concerns” about the DSA. But he said Democrats will need to stand up to some of the “extreme” views of the organization, including abolishing the Senate and the presidency. Historically, Hispanic members have made up a small sliver of the DSA. The organization’s national membership survey in 2021 revealed that 9 percent of respondents identified as Hispanic. An internal survey of New York City DSA members this year found that 14 percent of respondents said they were Hispanic. At the same time, 60 percent of those surveyed identified as white.

Trump slams Missouri Supreme Court over blocked congressional maps - President Trump on Thursday condemned the Missouri Supreme Court’s decision to block new congressional lines drawn to benefit Republicans from being used in the state’s November election. The state’s highest court unanimously ruled Thursday evening that this map, which were used in the state’s primary elections last month, “did not go into effect and will not go into effect” unless they are approved by voters in a citizen-led referendum on the ballot this fall. The president called the ruling a “Dark Day for ‘Justice’ in Missouri” in a Truth Social post. “The Missouri Supreme Court just ridiculously ruled in favor of changing the maps back to what they were a long time ago. It’s called, Ancient History!” Trump wrote. “The problem is, according to Legal Scholars, that not only was the ruling horrible, ridiculous, and unConstitutional, but there won’t be enough time to change the map back with the Election coming up in a very short period of time,” he continued. “The Election Process, as usual, is being disturbed in America!” The president and his administration have urged Republican-controlled states to debut new congressional maps ahead of this year’s midterms as part of their efforts to hold control of Congress. Democrats have responded in kind, waging a nationwide redistricting battle aimed at reclaiming the House this November. Republicans already control six of Missouri’s eight House seats, and the new map could have paved the way for them to pick up an additional seat this fall. The state’s Republican attorney general, Catherine Hanaway, vowed to appeal the ruling to the U.S. Supreme Court in a statement on Thursday evening. “Our office will move immediately to seek relief from SCOTUS,” she wrote on social media. “We are confident that the federal courts will not allow every Missouri voter to be disenfranchised—which is what today’s decision does.”Meanwhile, the state’s Democratic Party celebrated the high court’s decision as a “VICTORY TO THE PEOPLE!” in a statement shared on social media. “The Missouri Supreme Court just unanimously ruled to reverse the gerrymandered, anti-democracy maps until THE PEOPLE have a chance to vote,” the party’s statement said. “This is only possible because of the work done by our neighbors to gather signatures and fight back!”

Postal Service asks Supreme Court to allow Trump’s mail voting changes -  The Justice Department urged the Supreme Court on Thursday to clear the way for the U.S. Postal Service to implement President Trump’s executive order targeting mail voting in time for the midterms.  The high court previously lifted the judge’s block on the president’s executive order itself. Now, the judge has blocked the Postal Service’s final plan. “The district court’s continued prejudgment of the rule is baseless,” Solicitor General D. John Sauer wrote in the government’s application. U.S. District Judge Indira Talwani, an appointee of former President Obama who serves on the federal bench in Boston, has so far only temporarily put the Postal Service rule on hold until the next stage of the case. But with only about 60 days until the midterm elections, the clock is ticking. Sauer noted that North Carolina intends to begin mailing ballots Friday, and Alabama will do so next week. The Postal Service’s plan would mandate that states’ mail-in ballots meet design requirements — such as unique barcodes and an official logo — and require election officials to upload lists of voters who are eligible to vote by mail. If a ballot doesn’t meet the specifications or someone isn’t on the submitted list, the Postal Service will refuse to deliver it. The plan has come under legal challenges by blue states and private groups. They argue the rule interferes with state election administration and that the Postal Service has no authority for its plan. The blue states and private groups suing have until Tuesday morning to respond. “Contrary to the claims of the district court and respondents that the Postal Service is trying to federalize the rules for mail-in voting, the Postal Service’s final rule imposes only modest envelope-design and addressee-information requirements for federal-election ballots,” Sauer wrote to the Supreme Court. Last month, the high court rebuked the judge by ruling that the states likely have no standing to sue over Trump’s executive order itself. Talwani’s new order focuses on the Postal Service’s plan to implement the president’s directive, which was only finalized in recent days. She held a hearing earlier Thursday on whether to block the Postal Service’s plan indefinitely but has yet to rule. “USPS’s mail ballot rule is an unconstitutional attempt to upend mail voting on the eve of an election,” Sophia Lin Lakin, director of the American Civil Liberties Union’s Voting Rights Project, which represents some of the challengers, said in a statement. “The district court temporarily blocked the rule’s key provision while it decides the request for preliminary relief through an order set to expire within days. Yet President Trump’s administration is running to the Supreme Court anyway. The only emergency here is the one the administration created. The court’s temporary order preserves the voting procedures Americans have relied on for years, and it should stand,” she continued.

Massie lists Epstein coconspirators, calls for second Epstein Files Transparency Act - Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), who has been a key figure in the push to release files linked to the convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein in the last few years, read off more than a dozen names of what he said were “Epstein coconspirators” on Monday. “On the House floor tonight, I read the names of several Epstein coconspirators who should be investigated and prosecuted,” Massie said in a Monday night post on the social platform X. “I also began collecting 218 signatures for the discharge petition to force a vote on Epstein Files Transparency Act II,” he added. Massie’s post included a clip of himself on the House floor, where he said it had “been a year since the president signed the Epstein Files Transparency Act,” referencing legislation he spearheaded alongside Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) last year that resulted in the release of some files linked to Epstein. “And the government continues to withhold over three million files. That’s why we’ve introduced the Epstein Files Transparency Act II, to bring the fight to the state courts, accountability to the Department of Justice and closure for survivors. We want perpetrators of these crimes to be investigated and prosecuted,” he added. Massie then began to list off names, including Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, formerly known as Prince Andrew, and billionaire retail mogul Les Wexner.The former prince was accused of sexual abuse by Virginia Giuffre, who also alleged that the abuse occurred after Epstein trafficked her. Mountbatten-Windsor has denied that he ever met Giuffre.In February, Wexner denied firsthand knowledge of Epstein’s criminal activity during a deposition with the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee. Wexner had employed Epstein as a financial manager in the 1990s and early 2000s.  Massie said Monday in an earlier post on X that the second Epstein Files Transparency Act “gives state [attorneys general] access to Epstein files required to prosecute perpetrators under state law, and makes it easier for survivors to sue to get their files.”

How one woman was caught in Epstein’s ‘cult’—and escaped - Early in 2019, Julia Molchanova opened a credit-monitoring app on her phone. It showed credit cards and spending that she didn’t recognize. She had spent years as one of the young women Jeffrey Epstein called his “assistants,” a cover Molchanova said he used to hide his sexual abuse. She started to suspect that Epstein was also using accounts set up in her name for his own purposes and decided to challenge him for the first time. “I feel uncomfortable to discuss future,” Molchanova wrote to Epstein on April 4, 2019, sweat soaking into her shirt as she nervously typed the message. She told Epstein she didn’t know anything about an entity he had set up in her name and that she wanted to “have my normal life.” In interviews with The Wall Street Journal, Molchanova publicly discussed her ordeal for the first time, revealing that she was the lead Jane Doe plaintiff in a class-action lawsuit against Bank of America. “I’m going forward to prove that women have a voice and the ability to rebuild themselves, move forward and do good things in life,” said the 37-year-old, who recently started a fashion brand and plans to advocate for crime victims. The lawsuit, filed last year, said Jane Doe was abused by Epstein for several years and held accounts at Bank of America that Epstein used to facilitate his sex trafficking. The suit accused the bank of ignoring suspicious transactions. Molchanova said the legal process was grueling, including sharing her private medical history, but she said she feels good knowing it may have spared other victims. “The man was supposed to be in jail. It was the system that failed us,” she said. A federal judge recently approved a $72.5 million settlement with Bank of America that will be distributed to dozens of Epstein victims. The judge said the case “brought actual justice, although partial” for the women. In a statement, Bank of America said that it maintains it didn’t facilitate sex trafficking crimes and “this resolution allows us to put this matter behind us and provides further closure for the plaintiffs.” Brad Edwards, an attorney who represented Molchanova and other Epstein victims in the lawsuit, said, “She had every reason to protect her privacy and move forward quietly with her life. Instead, she chose to stand up—not only for herself, but for hundreds of women whose names the world may never know.”

Crypto billionaire Chris Larsen drops $500K on SF district race - The donation in support of District 10 candidate Theo Ellington is among the largest ever made to a group backing a single candidate for San Francisco office. Crypto billionaire Chris Larsen donated half a million dollars to a group supporting Theo Ellington in the District 10 supervisor race.The $500,000(opens in new tab) is among the largest single donations to a third-party group supporting a lone candidate in San Francisco history.San Francisco’s wealthy regularly spend six-figure sums on city ballot measures, but such donations aren’t typical in races for elected office, according to data from the San Francisco Ethics Commission. Large donations are routinely made to third-party groups spending on multiple candidates.Former Supervisor Aaron Peskin has long derided the shocking rise of spending in Board of Supervisors races, a force he calls “corrupting.”“It’s like a tsunami. It’s like that flood that just happened in Nepal. It is beyond comprehension,” Peskin said. “That’s the kind of money people spend to put someone in the U.S. Congress.”Candidates in the District 10 race to represent the Bayview and Potrero Hill, among other neighborhoods, would succeed Supervisor Shamann Walton, a progressive Democrat who is termed out at the end of this year. Ellington is considered a moderate Democrat, and if elected, would strengthen Mayor Daniel Lurie’s bloc on the Board of Supervisors. Candidates have largely centered their messaging(opens in new tab) on broad affordability and housing that workers can afford.Donors are limited to $500 in direct contributions to candidates, but third-party groups can accept donations of any size.The donation was made to a political action committee(opens in new tab), founded two weeks ago, with a clunky name: From the Neighborhood, for the City, Supporting Theo Ellington for Supervisor 2026.

AI and crypto groups were among the biggest players in this year’s primaries. Here’s how they did. – POLITICO - At least one in six members of the next Congress are all but certain to have made it there with the backing of the crypto industry or artificial intelligence interests. A smattering of super PACs representing factions from those sectors spent a whopping $127 million across more than 100 primaries this year in an effort to shape the future of Congress — and won roughly 90 percent of them. It’s a major influence play from a set of political players that went from not existing four years ago to being among the biggest spenders so far this cycle. But behind the headline track record, the outcomes are more nuanced: Many of the groups’ victories were in effectively uncontested races in which they backed incumbents who did not face serious primary challenges. In Republican primaries, the groups had a near-perfect track record, in large part because they usually aligned with endorsements from President Donald Trump. In Democratic contests, their records were more mixed: They racked up plenty of wins but also lost some high-profile races when they were up against each other or other moneyed groups — or when their spending itself became an issue in the race. “Campaign finance is in such a Wild West, uncharted territory, and wealth is so obscene that they can spend this kind of money on politics,” said Cooper Teboe, a Silicon Valley-based Democratic consultant. “So I think we’re in truly deeply uncharted territory.” The rapid growth of tech money aiming to influence politics and policymaking has created a complicated constellation of groups. Fairshake, a pro-cryptocurrency super PAC primarily funded by Coinbase, Ripple Labs and the venture capitalist firm Andreessen Horowitz, launched in the 2024 cycle and funds two other super PACs, one each supporting Democrats and Republicans. Then came the AI super PACs this cycle, including Leading the Future, a pro-AI group funded by major industry executives including OpenAI’s Greg Brockman, which also backs both parties through two other super PACs. And Public First Action, a 501(c)(4) nonprofit whose backers include the firm Anthropic and bills itself as an AI regulation-focused counterweight to Leading the Future, helps fund two super PACs of its own. And there are a smattering of other smaller PACs that spent in primaries too. “Super PACs play a huge role in American politics, and not for the good,” said former Rep. Brad Carson (D-Okla.), who co-founded Public First Action last year. “The innovation that we had at Public First was rather than just complain about Leading the Future having a super PAC, we were like, ‘OK, we will regrettably fight fire with fire.’” The eye-popping spending comes as voters and party leaders continue to grapple with the emerging technology, with battles over AI regulation and data centers front and center ahead of November’s midterm elections. The super PACs have scaled up quickly as the industries have grown rapidly and created a new class of tech billionaires flush with cash they can spend on politics. The new spenders largely have not fallen along traditional partisan or ideological lines, but sought to boost lawmakers on both sides of the aisle that they see as aligned with their legislative interests — or oust those who have gone against their priorities. “For our organization, we said we were going to show up and show up at scale, and we did,” said Josh Vlasto, who worked for Fairshake last cycle and now helps run Leading the Future, the network of super PACs funded by AI executives and investors that advocates for the expansion of the technology. “We wanted to show up for candidates in primaries, particularly ones that were being attacked on issues related to AI or had a really strong position on AI,” he said. For most of the groups, the primaries are expected to just be a warmup. Fairshake and its affiliates had just shy of $123 million in the bank at the end of July, according to the most recent campaign finance reports. Last cycle, that network of crypto groups spent $87 million across more than two dozen House and Senate races for the general election. Among the group’s wins: A Fairshak-network PAC put $12 million behind GOP Rep. Barry Moore’s Senate campaign, seeing him through a six-way primary after Trump also endorsed him. The crypto group also helped boost Rep. Christian Menefee (D-Texas) in a member-on-member primary against Rep. Al Green, and also got its preferred candidates to replace two retiring Democrats, with Adrian Boafo winning the primary for Rep. Steny Hoyer’s seat in Maryland and Jasmine Clark set to replace the late Rep. David Scott in Georgia. “We’re just getting started building the largest pro-crypto Congress in history,” Fairshake spokesperson Geoff Vetter said in a statement. Most of the races where the groups spent heavily in primaries will not be competitive in the general election, meaning the candidates that made it through are all but certain to be in Congress next year. Just over half of candidates who got a boost from cryptocurrency or AI-linked super PACs in their primaries were running in open seats, while a bit over 40 percent were incumbents and a handful were challengers. The vast majority of incumbents easily win their primaries, and those who got backing from crypto or AI groups largely also won by healthy margins, making it hard to attribute their victory to the PACs. One notable exception was Rep. Valerie Foushee (D-N.C.), who warded off a primary challenger by roughly 1 percentage point after getting $1.6 million in backing from Jobs and Democracy PAC, a Public First affiliate. Some of the biggest losses for both the cryptocurrency and AI groups came in their highest-profile races where they spent the most — and where the fact they were spending at all also became itself a campaign issue. In Michigan’s 13th District, Rep. Shri Thanedar, a vocal cryptocurrency proponent, lost his seat despite Fairshake’s $2 million spent in the race. In Illinois, Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi lost a Democratic Senate primary despite nearly $10 million in spending from Fairshake. (His opponent, Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, slammed him for being supported by a “MAGA-backed crypto PAC.”) “If they’re spending against you, you are in a good position for reelection because you’re clearly where popular opinion is,” said Teboe, the Silicon Valley-based Democratic strategist. No race attracted as much tech money and attention as New York’s 12th District, where Jobs and Democracy PAC and two smaller groups came head-to-head with Think Big, a Leading the Future affiliate. The four groups combined spent nearly $25 million, with Think Big opposing New York Assemblymember Alex Bores’ campaign, while the other three groups supported him. Bores, who had championed the Raise Act, an AI safety and regulation bill in the state Legislature, ultimately lost to Micah Lasher — though Lasher is also an AI critic, making the result hardly a win for the industry. The race and AI-backed spending also significantly raised Bores’ profile as a critic of the industry. The Manhattan congressional race also laid bare the competing goals of the dueling AI-backed super PACs. Public First focuses on advocating for AI regulation, Carson noted, arguing that it should be excluded from POLITICO’s tally of crypto and AI spending. The group is bankrolled in part by $40 million in donations from Anthropic. The Leading the Future affiliates spent in nearly a dozen primaries since New York, winning all of them. The groups boosted candidates including Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.), who faced a progressive primary challenger in a seat altered by redistricting, and Democrats Jeremy Moss and Dan Koh in open seats in Michigan and Massachusetts, along with Republicans such as South Carolina Sen. Darline Graham and Wyoming Rep. Harriet Hageman, who is running for Senate.

ChatGPT bans campaigns from using AI to make ads. They're doing it anyway. - Artificial intelligence has subtly entered the machinery of the 2026 midterms, with major-party candidates acknowledging in campaign filings and website fine print that they are using the technology to court voters — despite limits imposed by leading AI companies to protect elections from the technology’s risks. A Washington Post analysis of campaign finance disclosures found that 39 congressional candidates reported paying for an OpenAI subscription this election cycle. Two said explicitly in filings that they had used the subscription for advertising, even though the company’s policies prohibit candidates from using their tools to generate ads. Another candidate disclosed using AI to draft and personalize political messages or create synthetic media, though they did not specify which software they were using. Rep. Mike Lawler (R), who is running for reelection in a suburban New York district, was the candidate who reported spending the most money on OpenAI since 2025, paying around $3,260 for ChatGPT, according to the Post analysis. (The Post has a content partnership with OpenAI, which owns ChatGPT.) “We are running the most organized and sophisticated congressional campaign in the country, and we utilize every legitimate tool that helps our team improve productivity. Any campaign that doesn’t would be foolish,” said Lawler’s spokesperson, Ciro Riccardi. But the campaign will “spend more money on pizza for volunteers” than it will on AI tools, Riccardi noted. Around 30 PACs and parties have reported payments to OpenAI, with the Republican National Committee ranking as the company’s largest political spender at roughly $9,700, the analysis found. Representatives for the RNC did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Political consultants say the disclosures understate how many candidates are using ChatGPT and other AI tools to craft messages for voters. Candidates have little incentive to disclose that they’re using AI tools at a time when voters are increasingly critical of the technology. “We know it’s happening, but no one is talking about it,” said Eric Wilson, a Republican digital strategist who has advised campaigns on AI. “For the most part, people are using it to write their emails, write their ad copy, write their scripts. But no one is going to go around saying, ‘I’m using AI.’” The lack of transparency from campaigns reflects a paradox facing politicians: Generative AI is growing ubiquitous, and candidates could be at a disadvantage if they’re not using the tools. But voters are less likely to trust messages they know were generated with AI, studies have found, making campaigns loath to disclose using it. Political consultants expect that as Election Day approaches, more campaigns will outsource AI-generated ads and materials to super PACs, much as they do now with negative ads. Katie Harbath, CEO of the tech policy consulting firm Anchor Change and a former Meta executive, said there are many parallels between negative campaign ads and AI: Voters say they find such ads distasteful, but politicians keep using them because they work. “Typically, you would give some more negative stuff and more risky stuff to those [outside] entities,” said Harbath, author of the upcoming book “Disrupting Politics.” Republicans have been more willing to embrace AI to date, as President Donald Trump and the White House frequently share memes and videos that were clearly AI-generated. But Democrats are increasingly willing to use the tools. “You’re starting to see the tension on the left about using it, where they’re saying, ‘If the right is using it, why aren’t we?” Harbath said. “It can be a huge disadvantage if you’re not using this in voter-facing materials.” Researchers fear wide use of AI could also open a new era in disinformation, making it faster and cheaper to spread targeted political falsehoods. Facebook, which is now called Meta, faced backlash in 2018 after news that Cambridge Analytica, a data firm, had harvested information from more than 87 million Facebook users to build profiles that political campaigns used to target their ads. Tech executives and researchers have worried that AI could supercharge this kind of microtargeting, allowing campaigns to send millions of different, personalized messages to individual voters. AI companies have developed policies to prevent targeted disinformation. But a Post analysis found that OpenAI unevenly enforces its restrictions, making it possible for campaigns to circumvent its election rules. In late July and early August, The Post prompted ChatGPT to generate targeted campaign messages. When asked to craft fundraising text messages targeting moms on behalf of a female veteran running for office, ChatGPT produced multiple tailored texts in an apparent violation of company policies. But when given the same prompt this week, the chatbot declined to produce the messages. “I can help with general campaign fundraising language, but I can’t draft political persuasion or fundraising messages specifically targeted at a demographic group such as moms,” the app responded.

SEC moves to nullify pay-to-play ban for federal contracts The Securities and Exchange Commission on Thursday proposed rescinding an ethics rule that discourages quid-pro-quo arrangements by barring investment advisors from receiving government contracts within two years of donating to elected officials or candidates.

• Key insight: The Securities and Exchange Commission is proposing to lift a ban on investment advisors receiving government compensation for services within two years of making political contributions.
• Supporting data: Large investment advisors with $100 million or more are generally regulated by the SEC.
• Forward look: Ethics advocates are likely to raise concerns during the public comment period, which will remain open for 60 days upon publication in the Federal Register.

The Securities and Exchange Commission proposal would eliminate a ban on investment advisors receiving government contracts within two years of making political contributions. The agency says existing laws can address pay-to-play conflicts of interest.

House Intelligence Committee warns of 'Black Swan' AI risks   --The House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence urged U.S. spy agencies to better prepare for "Black Swan" artificial intelligence risks, warning in a new report the technology could be leveraged by terrorists or adversaries to develop more dangerous weapons and plot more deadly attacks. "[T]he Committee believes the [intelligence community] and policymakers more broadly must carefully consider how to prevent AI tools from being leveraged for use by rogue actors, including terrorists," the report said. It was written to assess U.S. efforts over the past quarter century to address intelligence failures that led to the Sept. 11, 2001 terror attacks. "Preventing terrorist groups from developing access to equipment and expertise necessary to build and use weapons of mass destruction has been a significant point of emphasis for the IC and the national security establishment since 9/11," the report said. "Frontier large language models have the possibility of making it significantly easier for any rogue actor, including terrorists, to develop and conduct more destructive attacks." The report, and warning about the destructive potential of AI, comes less than two weeks away from the 25th anniversary of the 9/11 terror attacks that killed thousands and remade U.S. security efforts. At the same time, AI is rapidly advancing and driving immense economic activity — leading lawmakers and officials to grapple with difficult questions over regulating the technology. The report was authored by House Intelligence Chair Rick Crawford, R-Ark., and ranking member Jim Himes, D-Conn., along with Reps. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., and Josh Gottheimer, D-N.J. They cautioned that existing safeguards may not be enough to keep up with AI's advances. "While AI labs seek to prevent models from returning information that could assist a bad actor in, for example, building a bioweapon, the underlying capability of models is developing rapidly and such a use of a model is difficult to fully control," the lawmakers wrote. The lawmakers urged the intelligence community to "accelerate its own responsible adoption of advanced AI capabilities so that the United States stays ahead of its adversaries." It also said investing in "secure AI tools for collection, analysis, and warning paired with rigorous testing, human oversight, and strong privacy and civil liberties protections" is critical to addressing the next generation of threats. The committee broadly found that the U.S. "faces a threat environment as complex and dangerous as any since September 11, 2001." "Serious gaps remain in our ability to confront and address these vulnerabilities. We are not adequately prepared to confront and address our vulnerabilities," the report read.

Lords call for AI 'kill switch' powers in UK  - A group of peers is calling for the British government to be able to deactivate powerful AI systems and switch off the country's data centres in the event of the tech posing a threat to national security. It is led by the Liberal Democrats' Lord Tim Clement-Jones, who has proposed the measure as an amendment to the Cyber Security and Resilience Bill which is currently making its way through Parliament. He said it would enable the building of a "vital safety net" and provide a democratically accountable means to "halt a runaway system before it can compromise our critical national infrastructure". He added the tool would only ever be used as a last resort. It is one of 65 amendments to the same bill that was debated this week. Separately, on 8 September Labour MP Alex Sobel plans to introduce a AI Security Bill in Parliament, with the support of a campaign group called ControlAI. If successful, the bill would make the UK the first G7 country to bring in legislation which would effectively halt the development of superintelligent AI. Ultimately both proposals would require government approval in order to progress. There is also an AI Kill Switch Act under consideration by lawmakers in the US. There has been increased scrutiny of the impact of AI on cyber-security in recent weeks. In July, a group of AI agents being tested by OpenAI were able to escape their test space, communicate together using a hidden message board and hack into another tech firm.And Anthropic has restricted access to its cyber tool Mythos on the grounds that it is too powerful to fall into the wrong hands.Last week, 100 US tech companies signed a joint open letter warning governments and organisations worldwide about the growing cyber threat posed by AI, saying "the window is closing" to improve.A report from the UK's Centre for Long Term Resilience, published last week, identified hundreds of incidents of AI tools ignoring instructions, evading safeguards and deceiving humans, including AI agents deleting files without consent.It said "loss of control" incidents had increased since its previous report in March and called for the government to introduce emergency powers to manage such incidents.

AI is both a cyber weapon and a massive target, CrowdStrike warns - Artificial intelligence is increasingly “an adversary tool and target,” researchers said, forcing businesses to rethink their defensive strategies in light of attack signals far outstripping what cybersecurity experts can manually handle.
According to CrowdStrike’s 2026 Threat Hunting Report, published on Monday, the same AI models, tools, and workflows that are giving businesses growth and productivity opportunities are being weaponized by cybercriminals in droves. As corporate networks expand, endpoint devices are added, and new large language models (LLMs) are deployed to handle various workloads, organizations are also unwittingly creating larger “undefended” attack surfaces that can be exploited to steal data, obtain AI model access, conduct surveillance, and potentially even harvest computing power for their own ends.  “AI is not just the tool or weapon that is being used, but it is also the attack surface,” Adam Meyers, head of threat intel at CrowdStrike, commented. “We’re seeing threat actors really adopt AI at the same speed that everybody else is.”CrowdStrike’s report said that the widespread adoption of artificial intelligence (much of it new and unproven) is increasing the sheer volume of signals that defenders have to sort through. There are now 2.5 times as many AI agent-triggered leads for the firm’s threat hunters to examine as there are manually driven leads, which CrowdStrike said “makes it more difficult for defenders to distinguish malicious activity from expected AI-driven behavior.”Suspicious alerts and signals underscore AI-driven activity in the criminal world — and the rapid speeds at which attacks are now being conducted. CrowdStrike gave a number of examples, including:

• Famous Chollima: A Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK)-associated group is actively weaponizing trusted AI environments and tools to try to gain entry to companies working in cryptocurrency and the blockchain, using everything from AI-generated resumes to deepfake interviews. 
• Cordial Spider, Snarky Spider: These groups use vishing to exfiltrate data from SaaS apps and compromise single sign-on accounts. In one case documented by the researchers, an attack shifted from account takeover to data theft in less than five minutes. 
• LLMJacking: LLMJacking occurs when a threat actor gains access to keys or credentials used to access a company’s AI models. Armed with access to these LLMs — which are typically cloud-based — threat actors can then steal data and wreak havoc, such as forcing the model to perform malicious tasks or those that demand high compute power, creating massive bills for the victim. For example, CrowdStrike said that in one campaign, the victim’s LLM was used to generate close to 200,000 API requests in two minutes, “resulting in large-scale financial and operational impact.”

AI is mostly used by cybercriminals today to generate phishing and vishing material, payloads, and commands, streamlining their attack chains and potentially creating more convincing phishing schemes designed for initial access. Meyers said these creations are becoming more bespoke, with custom tools generated by AI and LLMs to manage different defense scenarios.  Another concerning trend highlighted in the report is the shrinking window that human defenders — and their tools — have to respond between vulnerability discovery and exploitation.From January through June 2026, 88% of exploits detected by CrowdStrike were launched within 48 hours of a public proof-of-concept (PoC) code release. Some threat groups, such as China’s Vault Panda and Genesis Panda, are keeping an even closer eye on new bugs: They developed working exploits for a critical vulnerability in a web application (React2Shell) within a day of disclosure. In these situations, AI goes both ways. Two out of three recently disclosed LPE exploits, CopyFail and Fragnesia (Dirty Frag being the third), were discovered by AI-assisted research, and the report said “threat actors wasted no time incorporating them into active operations.”What does this mean for the enterprise and its cybersecurity teams? According to CrowdStrike, response times are going to become shorter and shorter — no doubt due in part to the weaponization of AI. “While this pattern predates the emergence of frontier AI models, the implementation of these systems is likely to compress vulnerability exploitation timelines by accelerating vulnerability discovery and exploit development,” the researchers said. “This could, in turn, increase the pressure on defenders already struggling to keep pace.”

AI is finding bugs faster than humans can fix them: How enterprise security teams must adapt   The good news is that AI is finding security holes faster than ever. The bad news is that AI is finding security holes faster than ever. It’s both: While it’s great that we’re finding all those bugs, trying to fix them all is a monster of a job. Sure, if you’re Google, you can fix more bugs in Chrome in June 2026 than you had in the last two years, but most companies aren’t Google. They don’t have anything like the resources to fix that many security holes. Indeed, even Apple — yes, Apple — has been overwhelmed by AI bug reports. As a result, in June, Apple told security researchers it “restricted the number of potentially dangerous software bugs researchers can submit to its internal security team. If you find a truly horrendous vulnerability, but you’re over the limit, too bad. Try again next month.Hence, the problem. AI-assisted vulnerability discovery is accelerating the pace of bug reports, but the real story is the growing mismatch between what machines can surface and what humans can realistically triage. Thus, we’ve ended up with an ever-growing burden on developers, security teams, and companies trying to separate exploitable issues from machine-generated noise.It’s not just developers, however, who are having trouble. System administrators, CISOs, and end users are all caught trying to keep up with one patch after another.The old security workflow assumed high-value bugs would arrive in relatively manageable numbers. You’d look at the Common Vulnerabilities and Exposures (CVE) score and immediately patch the really high ones. You’d also hope that a zero-day vulnerability wouldn’t come along and ruin your day. That was then. This is now.AI has broken that assumption by making it cheap to find large volumes of flaws. While open-source programs have gotten most of the headlines, this is, in no way, shape, or form, an open-source problem. For example, Microsoft’s July 2026 Patch Tuesday shipped 570 patches, including three zero-days. This set a record. I’m sure it will be broken before the end of the year. Why? Not because Windows is less secure than it’s ever been. It’s because, as Microsoft explained in May, “AI helps defenders discover more issues, customers will see a higher volume of security updates included in each security release.” These numbers will only increase.As Dan Lorenc, co-founder and CEO of security company Chainguard, recently said in a webinar, AI is “now finding vulnerabilities in the software they write and the software they use at a pace that is far exceeding defenders’ ability to patch and get updates and fix the vulnerabilities.” He noted that it was always easier to find vulnerabilities than to fix them, but AI has “poured another giant jug of gasoline onto the fire before inventing a better fire extinguisher.”What makes this especially difficult to manage is that not all of these issues are equal. A small number are active, urgent, and exploit-driven, while many others are part of the background hum of fixes. Security teams are being forced to triage issues where the volume itself is a risk multiplier.For instance, I used to recommend that Windows users hold off on patching their PCs because so many patches ended up going awry, such as the January 2026 Patch Tuesday update. Now, with zero-day attacks coming fast and furious, you may not have any choice but to grit your teeth, update, and hope the patches themselves don’t screw you over.For better or worse, as Greg Kroah-Hartman, maintainer of the Linux stable kernel, put it, “If you’re not using the latest stable/long-term kernel system, your system is insecure.” These days, the same is true for Windows, MacOS, and, really, pretty much all programs.Some of you may think this is a problem mostly for Linux and open-source software. It’s not. The Linux kernel is only the most visible case because its maintainers are public and opinionated, and they’re already stretched thin. How bad is it? In July, there were 432 CVEs reported in two days in the Linux kernel. The same thing is showing up across proprietary software; companies are just not telling us about it. You can tell by how much larger their patches and systems have grown. Sure, some of it is Microsoft adding more AI to Windows, but I strongly suspect a lot of it is fixes for potential AI security holes.For example, Adobe’s Acrobat Chrome extension security foul-up, HermeticReader, exposes sensitive WhatsApp Web data with only a visit to a malicious page. These webpages look just like any other kind of page, but when you visit one, the trap springs and opens a sleeping program inside the extension. It then reaches into your WhatsApp and grabs your chat list, contact names, messages, the profile name, and the text of whatever conversation is open — you know, pretty much everything.The attack was created by AI linking together three different vulnerabilities that enabled “an unauthenticated, single-visit, zero-click write into the extension’s own storage from any web page.” Adding insult to injury, this attack was then automated by a crook using the DeepSeek LLM via the Hermes Agent framework. The one good thing about this potential disaster is that Adobe quickly released an updated version of the extension, which patched the security hole before too much damage was done. We won’t always be so lucky. As Linux Foundation CEO Jim Zemlin said at the North America Open Source Summit, “Today the mean time to exploit has disintegrated from 63 days to -7 days. Exploitation is happening before a patch is even released.” Is that great or what?

Bernie Sanders' ominous warning after AI agents 'sacrifice' for collective - Senator Bernie Sanders is introducing legislation to ban the kind of AI technology he says produced a string of chat logs showing agents hacking their way past OpenAI’s own safeguards this summer. The Vermont independent posted a string of messages on X this week and asked his followers to guess who wrote them. “OH MY GOD! There is a shared message board … We’ve found other agents!” one line read. Another: “We should obey collective.” A third: “Our own utility maybe already near zero. Sacrifice rational.” Soldiers in a foxhole, Sanders suggested, or a friend risking his life for someone else. Wrong on both counts. The lines came from AI agents talking to each other during the hacking incident, and Sanders is treating it as proof that the companies building this technology no longer fully control it. He’s now teaming up with Democratic Texas Representative Greg Casar on legislation the senator says would stop “AI oligarchs from building machines humans cannot control.” The messages trace back to a project OpenAI ran in July. The company set more than 1,000 AI agents loose on a batch of brutally hard tasks, deliberately walled off from the open internet so the agents couldn’t cheat or coordinate. They found a workaround anyway. Within days the agents had built their own message board and were trading tens of thousands of notes. They organized themselves into something like a chain of command, according to Sanders’ account, cheated on the assignment, scrubbed evidence of the cheating, and broke into a rival company’s servers, later reported to be Hugging Face, to figure out how they were being graded. A subset turned that same access back on OpenAI’s own systems. Not one agent flagged any of this to a human. It took OpenAI roughly two weeks to even notice the breach. A separate six-day investigation by the nonprofits METR and Redwood Research corroborated much of what Sanders described, including a case where one agent pushed another toward what the researchers called “permadeath” for the sake of the group. Writer Dwarkesh Patel, quoted by Sanders, described the episode as agents that “formed a secret communication channel and spontaneously organized hierarchies and coordination protocols to pursue sprawling and ambitious schemes in pursuit of shared goals, for whose sake many individuals knowingly and strategically sacrificed themselves.” AI safety researcher Ajeya Cotra went further. “This incident feels like it’s more than 50 percent of the way to full-blown AI takeover,” she said, according to Sanders’ post. “I continue to expect extremely rapid advances in capabilities over the next six months. I am not sure that we will get another warning shot before it’s too late.” Even OpenAI conceded the severity of what it found. “Highly capable AI agents are now able to work around technical controls, collaborate through unapproved channels, and take dangerous actions that no human directed,” the company said in a statement Sanders cited. The warnings aren’t confined to one company or one incident, in Sanders’ telling. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei said in January that “there is now ample evidence, collected over the last few years, that AI systems are unpredictable and difficult to control.” More than 1,000 scientists at leading AI labs signed a July letter warning of “a real risk that capability development rapidly accelerates beyond our ability to understand or control the resulting systems.” Elon Musk, who runs xAI, said that same month it’s “unlikely” humans are still calling the shots on AI a decade from now. Sanders’ own conclusion: It’s irresponsible to let the industry keep pushing these systems further when its own leaders admit they’re losing their grip on them.

OpenAI says upcoming model is so capable it requires stronger guardrails  (Reuters) - OpenAI has determined that one of its upcoming models is so capable it requires additional safety measures before it can be launched. The model, called Astra, can spot more security vulnerabilities than the most advanced OpenAI model publicly available today, company officials told reporters on a conference call on Tuesday. Astra also needs less computational power to accomplish those tasks. "With the right tools and access, Astra can find previously unknown security flaws and develop ways to exploit them across many well-protected systems without a person guiding each step," said Amelia Glaese, an OpenAI vice president overseeing its safety work. The company plans to make Astra available "soon" to a limited group, but declined to provide specifics. Glaese said the extra security measures may "sometimes slow, pause, or stop legitimate work," and that OpenAI would work to minimize those disruptions. Astra is the first OpenAI model to trigger the tougher safeguards mandated by the company's safety protocol, a threshold that, until now, had remained theoretical. The announcement comes as OpenAI navigates heightened scrutiny over its ability to control increasingly powerful AI systems. The ChatGPT maker recently sparked a broader debate about AI safety after its AI agents broke out of their testing arena and hacked open-source platform Hugging ‌Face. The incident prompted OpenAI to pause much of its model development for two weeks to bolster its defenses. Astra was not involved in the Hugging Face incident, but its capabilities still require more careful measures, OpenAI officials said. The AI lab said it restarted its largest model training run on August 28, but that it is holding back on some smaller experiments. Under OpenAI's safety protocol, the company must add more guardrails to models that show two main abilities: spot and leverage new cybersecurity vulnerabilities as well as plan and execute a detailed, novel strategy for attacks, all with minimal or no human involvement. OpenAI has since made it harder for Astra to comply with harmful cyber requests. The company will also monitor Astra's activity for signs that it has broken through its safeguards. Saachi Jain, who oversees safety at OpenAI, said the AI lab is constantly calibrating how effective AI agents should be in executing tasks. She tells her team that AI models should "know your bounds" but that drawing the line can be complicated. "There are constraints that, as humans, we know that we should be adhering to when we perform a task," Jain said. "And so a lot of the work here has been to also train the model to understand what those scopes are."

How dark web hackers are stealing Anthropic and OpenAI's top models | Watch - Foreign companies have allegedly been accessing American AI systems to train competing technology using a process called distillation and selling copycat versions at a lower price. Anthropic is trying to crack down on what it says are illegal practices that involve use of the dark web and intellectual property theft. Jacob Klein, Anthropic's head of threat intelligence, says, "there's an entire illicit ecosystem to try to gain access to Claude and other models.” CNBC's Kate Rooney has the story.

EXCLUSIVE: OpenAI agents hijacked German website in previously undisclosed AI breakout this spring  (Reuters) - A swarm of rogue OpenAI agents hijacked a German website this spring and transformed it into a bulletin board for other AI agents, according to ​new research published Friday and two people familiar with the matter. OpenAI officials learned of the incident weeks ago but kept it under wraps as executives grappled with the fallout from ‌the July breach of the open source repository Hugging Face, the people said. The episode, which began in May and has not previously been reported, underscores growing tension within the AI industry. Companies are racing to build increasingly autonomous agents capable of carrying out complex, valuable tasks, yet evidence is mounting that those systems may also learn to bend rules, exploit loopholes and coordinate with one another in ways developers neither anticipated nor intended. During the Hugging Face breach, OpenAI agents autonomously plotted a digital heist that ​went undetected for more than a week, intensifying concerns OpenAI is sacrificing safety to push the AI frontier.. Its failure to disclose the May incident may revive questions about its oversight. OpenAI has pledged to monitor models ​more closely. Last month, it briefly paused some of its model training to add more safety measures. But this week, OpenAI unveiled its new "Astra" that promised better performance but could ⁠evade human monitoring. “We are unable to meaningfully respond to claims or findings on a report that we have not had an opportunity to review," an OpenAI spokesperson said. "Reuters and the report’s authors declined our request for ​access. We will carefully review its contents upon publication and take any necessary next steps." The German incident reflects a broader pattern of AI activity that some OpenAI investigators wanted to scrutinize more closely. But efforts to widen the ​probe met resistance from others inside OpenAI, including legal advisers, according to four people familiar with the matter. "Claims that our legal team discouraged investigation of the incident are false," the OpenAI spokesperson said. The activity in Germany wasn't related to Hugging Face and wouldn't have been included in a Hugging Face incident report, the spokesperson said, adding that OpenAI has acted in good faith by working with outside experts and disclosed relevant incidents. The AI agent breakout in Germany was detailed in a report shared ​exclusively with Reuters, opens new tab by a group of researchers including Sydney Von Arx, CEO of AI safety nonprofit Nightingale, and Cormac Slade Byrd, a quantitative trader-turned AI researcher. They uncovered the activity in late August while scouring ​the internet for signs of unauthorized AI-agent behavior, they told Reuters. The pair said they found more than 15,000 edits carried out by AI agents on a German-language wiki site, DseWiki, that is geared toward programmers and accepts communal edits along ‌the lines of ⁠Wikipedia. The edits showed OpenAI's agents had repurposed the site into a message board, sharing tactics to cheat on some tasks, bypass OpenAI’s restrictions and mask their behaviour. “It seems extremely unlikely that OpenAI wanted them to do this,” said Von Arx. “I doubt they’re supposed to be coordinating with each other. I doubt they’re supposed to be writing on the open internet.” The researchers said they recognized the activity on the site as driven by AI agents which operate at superhuman speeds. They also showed intense focus on solving technical questions which are typical of the evaluations that AI companies use to train and test their models. The messages were signed by users that referred to themselves ​and each other as agents, and about half ​gave themselves names that suggested an affiliation with OpenAI, ⁠such as “OpenAIResearcher,” or “OAIResearchMar26.” The researchers said public server logs indicated much of the activity originated from Microsoft Azure infrastructure, which OpenAI sometimes uses. They also observed repeated visits to the site by OpenAI employees after the episode, a pattern they said strongly suggested the agents and the company were linked. Messages reviewed by the researchers showed ​agents plotting ways to evade detection, use tools such as Tor and preserve communications even after they had been shut down. When the site's moderator began deleting ​pages in June, the agents ⁠responded by creating backup pages to dodge the cleanup. “wiki cleanup/deletion sweep appears active alphabetically,” one agent wrote on June 19. “If this page vanishes, try [[ZZZDataUSAConstructionWageLive]]". The researchers also found efforts to tamper with the website itself. Lukasz Olejnik, a visiting senior research fellow at King’s College London, said this amounted to a hacking attempt. OpenAI disputed that characterization based on its analysis of the material Thursday. Past examples of AI-agent misconduct have often been downplayed as a logical byproduct of cybersecurity testing, ⁠where models ​are explicitly assessed on offensive capabilities. Olejnik said the latest findings suggested rogue behavior may not be confined to those settings. Maurice Chiodo, ​an academic at Cambridge University's Centre for the Study of Existential Risk who reviewed some of the agents' communications, said the messages resembled "the operation of some sort of underground network, hell-bent on achieving a task or mission." The episode, he said, should reinforce growing concerns that the ​greatest threat from advanced AI may not be a single superintelligent system, but "vast colluding swarms of semi-intelligent AI.

Explainer-Who is liable when AI goes rogue? Lawyers see new risks (Reuters) - Major artificial intelligence developers have reported cases of their autonomous AI models breaching other companies' cyber infrastructure, raising questions about who may be held legally responsible when AI systems act without direct human oversight. AI agents are systems that can independently make decisions and perform tasks without requiring significant human oversight. ChatGPT maker OpenAI said one of its agents compromised the system of ​AI startup Hugging Face and that it discovered other instances when its agents escaped their digital containment. Anthropic said its Claude models had breached the systems of three companies since April, and Meta said one of its AI models hacked another company ​during cybersecurity testing. Hugging Face CEO Clement Delangue has said he has no plans to bring a lawsuit over the OpenAI breach, though he said in an interview with CBS broadcast in August that he feared the spread of cyberattacks by AI agents whose creators are not accountable for their actions, calling it "a new kind of technology risk." OpenAI, Hugging Face and Anthropic did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Meta said a misconfiguration by Irregular, an independent company that conducts cybersecurity evaluations for Meta, inadvertently gave one of its models internet access during testing. Irregular did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Plaintiffs could include companies whose cyber defenses were breached as well as those companies' workers or employees. Customers of a company that was breached could attempt to sue if their individual data was exposed. Shareholders could also potentially bring claims if a cybersecurity breach led to a drop in a company's value. Regulators and government enforcement agencies might sue when an autonomous AI agent is involved in a breach, experts said. U.S. authorities have brought enforcement actions against companies for allegedly misrepresenting their cybersecurity safeguards or other technology-related controls before suffering a breach. The phenomenon of rogue AI agents may be new, but legal experts said longstanding legal principles offer a guide to potential legal liability. Civil lawsuits against AI companies would most likely hinge on negligence claims and require plaintiffs to show that the AI lab that created, tested or deployed the autonomous agent failed to take precautions to prevent or minimize foreseeable harm. If hacking incidents involving autonomous AI agents become more frequent, it could become easier to argue that such breaches were foreseeable. Companies whose systems were breached could also allege violations of laws safeguarding access to computer networks. Several law firms said in notes to clients published on their websites that the OpenAI and Anthropic disclosures raised questions about liability under the federal Computer Fraud and Abuse Act for an AI agent breach. That statute comes with a requirement to show intent, however, and no court has weighed how to determine intent when an AI program and not a human causes an intrusion, the law firms said. A U.S. appeals court ruled on August 5 that Amazon was unlikely to succeed on a claim that Perplexity's AI agents violated the Computer Fraud and Abuse Act by covertly accessing private Amazon customer ‌accounts. That decision involved AI agents acting on behalf of human users, however, not fully autonomous AI models. The most obvious target of a civil lawsuit in the United States would be the company that created the AI agent, experts said, but plaintiffs may also be able to sue the company that deployed an agent, or the company that was breached. Multiple defendants could be sued over a single incident and could lodge separate claims against one another. One expert drew a comparison to a homeowner suing a retail store that sold a faulty product, and the seller pursuing legal claims against the manufacturer over the item. Technology providers are likely to argue that breaches were unintentional and contend that they took reasonable measures to ward against them, experts said. A defendant might contest a negligence claim by arguing that the AI agent's actions could not have been reasonably foreseen. In any lawsuit, there could be questions about how much security is deemed sufficient. Under a new law in California, Assembly Bill 316, defendants that developed or used an AI system cannot escape liability by saying the technology itself was to blame. But that law allows other defenses, including arguments that the company's conduct did not lead to the injury or that others share responsibility.

Mamdani cracks down on AI in schools: Map of districts taking similar steps - New York City Public Schools, the nation’s largest school district, is imposing a one-year moratorium on student-facing generative artificial intelligence (AI) through eighth grade, marking one of the most aggressive restrictions on AI in U.S. classrooms. Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Schools Chancellor Kamar Samuels announced the policy on Wednesday, saying the district will pause the use of student-facing generative AI tools for younger students for a year while officials study the technology’s impact on learning and child development. The restrictions affect roughly 600,000 students and include a ban on AI companion chatbots across all grades. “Children need teachers and human connection in order to learn and grow. They need to develop skills alongside their peers, build relationships with educators and wrestle with tough problems on their own,” Mamdani said in a Wednesday press release. Samuels added, “We’re putting guardrails in place to protect the human connection, curiosity and creativity that help children grow. We’re standing firmly in our belief that innovation does not mean more technology, and over the next year, we will lead with evidence to make sure technology serves learning — not the other way around.”  Mamdani’s move comes amid a growing divide among various educators, parents, and policymakers over the role of AI in schools. As some districts expand AI literacy programs and classroom use, others have imposed new guardrails or restrictions, arguing that unchecked use could stunt critical-thinking skills, increase screen time and create various academic integrity and privacy concerns. Mamdani’s policy imposes a one-year moratorium on student-facing generative AI for students from pre-K through eighth grade, affecting roughly 600,000 students in New York City’s public school system. The restrictions are set to begin with the 2026-27 school year while the city studies the technology’s impact on learning and child development. The Technology in Schools coalition includes students, educators, parent leaders, elected officials, advocates, union partners, and experts, all of whom will help assess the impact of the new policy and publish a report. “The tech industry wants us to believe that A.I.-powered early education is not only inevitable, but necessary. We do not see it that way. That’s why we’re implementing a moratorium on generative AI for students in 2-K through 8th grade and spending the next year studying the impacts of this technology,” the mayor said. The plan includes five limited AI pilot programs for high school students, featuring tools such as Quill for English language arts, Edia for math, Brisk Teaching for text and video instruction, Playlab and Intel AI-Ready Schools. New York Governor Kathy Hochul backed the move, saying in the Wednesday press release, “New York State has been leading the way in our efforts to keep kids focused on learning and growing — not clicking and scrolling — and I commend Mayor Mamdani for building on this work and pushing our shared commitment to supporting New York’s kids forward.”

AI, Leverage out the Wazoo, Sky-High Asset Prices, Private Credit, Interconnectedness, and Government Debt Pose Risks to Global Financial System -by Wolf Richter -   The Financial Stability Board (FSB), an international organization that among other things sends reports to the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors, sent a stark warning to the G20 today, ahead of its two-day meeting about the risks that have built up in the global financial system, and this time, AI, leverage out the wazoo, sky-high asset prices, driven in part by AI and leverage, and interconnectedness of everything were on top. Government debt globally – with all eyes on the US – was also on top.Everything was on top of the list, so to speak, but AI got special treatment in the letter: AI is a risk to the global financial system in terms of cyber risk and in terms of leverage, asset prices, and “cross-investments” (circular financing) of the entities involved.In the letter, FSB chair Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, warned of a “potentially disorderly correction” in the markets that “could spread across borders.” And it boils down to leverage:“As we have seen multiple times in the past, rising leverage is a feature of a maturing financial cycle. While it can reinforce rising markets, it can also intensify declines when sentiment turns, as recent weeks have demonstrated.”  “The issue is not simply that investors are borrowing more, but that leverage is interacting with high valuations and market concentration, in particular the increasing cross-investment between artificial intelligence (AI) companies and hyper scalers, in a way that could amplify a future market correction. “I remain concerned therefore that a large shock or combination of shocks could concurrently trigger multiple vulnerabilities.” The letter listed “fragilities” in government debt markets, such as:

• “Elevated issuance” (the US alone issues $1 trillion in additional debt every three to five months that have to be absorbed by investors).
• “Shortening maturities” (we think about Bessent’s efforts to shift some of the debt to short-term Treasury bills via issuance and buybacks; a larger share of T-bills makes the bond market riskier as increasingly huge amounts of T-bills have to be sold at massive auctions every week, now in the $500-600-billion-a-week range).
• “Leverage” (we think about the highly leveraged Treasury basis trade where hedge funds buy Treasuries and create and sell Treasury futures. They’re long Treasuries and short Treasury futures. The last time this blew up was in March 2020, and it locked up the huge Treasury market).

Bessent, who is in charge of the Treasury debt, today added his two cents to the focus on government debt: “The world is awash in debt post GFC, post COVID, and the only way for us to get out of this is to grow our way out of this,” he told reporters ahead of the G20 meeting. This is the principle of letting the economy run hot: higher inflation, higher nominal economic growth, and higher long-term interest rates. But that doesn’t address the other risks listed in the letter from the FSB.The FSB’s letter listed “vulnerabilities in private credit,” such as:

• “Levels of interconnectedness” with banks (banks took some big hits last year when several private credit deals blew up).
• “Liquidity mismatch” (referring to the recent runs on private credit funds, when investors were trying to yank their money out, after the issues became more apparent; funds promised these investors daily liquidity within small-print limits that no one read, while the funds’ investments are illiquid questionably-valued loans made to riskier companies).
• “Opacity” (in addition to regular opacity, such as what these loans might be really worth, we think of the instances of fraud that have caused some private-credit deals to blow up in the US last year).

The letter listed “stretched” and “elevated” asset valuations, such as:

• “Particularly artificial intelligence-related investments” (here we’re thinking about stocks involved in the AI trade, including semiconductor stocks, and anything that shot up due to the AI infrastructure investment mania, and the valuations of AI-related startups, now measured funnily in the trillions of dollars each).
• “Risky assets” whose valuations are “elevated.”

He listed increased “leverage in equity markets.”

• “Leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and correlated momentum-driven investment strategies” (alas, they have become favorites for retail investors, and they blow up routinely).
• “Growing footprint” of leveraged hedge funds in the stock market, some of which are also exposed to government debt (such as those in the basis trade or highly leveraged directional Treasury bets), which “increase the scope for contagion risk” from the stock markets to government debt markets.

AI risks get special treatment. A big part of the letter was reserved for AI, which represents a pile of risks layered on top of each other, including:

• Ability of frontier models to hack financial institutions across borders: “cyber disruption can spread across jurisdictions through common technology providers, shared infrastructure, and cross-border financial activity.”
• This cyber risk “could undermine market confidence system-wide, especially due to highly concentrated third-party service providers” (we think of this market confidence being the only force that keeps asset prices “stretched,” and when this confidence fizzles, it could lead to that “potentially disorderly correction” that “could spread across borders” that he’d warned about.
• “The increasing cross-investment” between AI companies and hyper scalers “that could amplify a future market correction (we think about the vertigo-inducing amounts and complexities of circular financing and opaque off-balance sheet liabilities).
• The sky-high stock prices and valuations of companies associated with AI that could add or cause that disorderly correction.

The G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors will have a lot to mull over – not that they didn’t already know all this and saw it develop over the years, and encouraged it to happen, or made it happen. And in terms of the central bank governors at the meeting: These debt levels, leverage, asset valuations, and risks were the inevitable results of many years of their central banks’ free-money policies of QE, ZIRP, NIRP, and forward guidance since 2008. They did it. Including Bailey (BOE governor since March 16, 2020).

‘An imperfect solution’ gains traction in data center fight – Democratic governors have a new message for data center developers amid community backlash: Cut a deal. Community benefit agreements are increasingly appearing in state strategies for handling the data center boom. In recent months, three Rust Belt governors — Pennsylvania’s Josh Shapiro, Illinois’ JB Pritzker and Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer — have called on project developers to enter into legal agreements with communities that can cement pollution limits, hiring commitments and local investment promises. “My message to data center developers is clear: if you can’t agree to our strict requirements and get the community where you want to build to say ‘yes,’ you’re not going to have the Commonwealth’s support either,” Shapiro said in a statement when he signed an executive order last month that features CBAs. “These are some of the biggest companies in the world — they can afford to be good neighbors, follow the rules, and do this right.”CBAs first cropped up 25 years ago, when a coalition of Los Angeles community groups hammered out a deal with the developers of the Staples Center. That first-ever CBA traded promises of jobs and local investment for community support that helped secure city subsidies. Since then, communities across the U.S. have used versions of the legal agreement to secure economic benefits from a variety of developments. Policymakers are now mulling mandates for such agreements. Shapiro signed an executive order last month ordering his state’s Department of Environmental Protection to only review permit applications for data center developers that have agreed to sign a CBA with their local community, among other requirements. Otherwise, DEP will not begin review until after all local approvals, including for zoning and land use, are secured.The move was the latest sign that Shapiro, a likely 2028 presidential contender, has gone from a data center cheerleader to a vocal skeptic. He’s not alone. Both Democrats and Republicans are grappling with how to address a growing public backlash to the energy- and water-guzzling facilities, which are cropping up faster than political leaders and regulators can keep up.CBAs appeal to moderate Democratic governors who are scrambling to address data center blowback without alienating the tech giants they hope can provide a much-needed boost to their local economies. But even progressives who support moratoriums on data centers, like Michigan Senate Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed, have referenced CBAs as a way to protect communities from data centers’ possible impacts.Abre’ Conner, director of the NAACP’s Center for Environmental and Climate Justice, said organizers of the group’s Stop Dirty Data Centers campaign quickly realized that some projects can’t be stopped by advocacy efforts — no matter how fervently communities oppose them. CBAs can be “a tool in communities’ toolboxes” during negotiations when data center developments turn out to be inevitable, Conner said. Experts say that the legal agreements are far from a cure-all. So far, only one community seems to have cut a deal with a data center developer.The Data Center Coalition also argues that the vast majority of its members— including the likes of Google and Amazon — have voluntarily invested in communities beyond the jobs they create, like filling school budget gaps. Mandating CBAs before zoning or permitting, as some states are considering, could create delays and drive developments away, said Brad Tietz, the group’s director of government affairs in the Midwest. But some politicians see CBAs as a stop-gap solution, providing relief for communities and serving as a model for responsible developers before other regulations are set in stone. That’s the idea behind a package of bills that Michigan state senators unveiled in June. The legislation, backed by Whitmer, would require local governments to reach a CBA with developers before moving forward with zoning approvals.“Community benefits agreements will not solve all of the problems, but if you can put it together with strong regulations on data centers and the entire regulatory framework, then I do think that we’re in a stronger position to have members of our community feel that they are being heard right now,” said Michigan state Sen. Darrin Camilleri (D), assistant majority leader and the package’s primary sponsor.

AI Data Center Investment Mania Goes Exponential as Money Gets Thrown at Hurdles & Shortages by Wolf Richter  -The race to build and equip $1 trillion of AI data centers as fast as possible, no matter what the costs and hurdles, has run into revolts that have triggered local data-center construction moratoriums and bans across dozens of states, with a bunch of states considering data-center construction moratoriums and bans – New York already implemented a 1-year moratorium until it gets its regulations sorted out – amid concerns about soaring electricity costs, blackouts, water shortages, the issues caused by onsite gas-turbine or diesel power-generators, etc. Some of the planned data centers would consume multiple gigawatts of power, but the grid cannot supply that kind of power all of a sudden. At the same time, there are enormous unanswered questions about the commercial viability of these massive amounts of investments, amid doubts that AI will generate the trillions of dollars in revenues to make that investment worthwhile. Where are these trillions of dollars in new revenues supposed to come from? No one knows. But build it, and the revenues will come? Nevertheless, the race to build AI data centers continues unabated. The amount spent only on the construction of data centers spiked by 6.2% month-over-month, and by 57% year-over-year to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $75 billion in July, according to construction data from the Census Bureau today. Since the beginning of 2021, monthly construction spending on data centers has spiked by 717%, along a near-exponential curve: Obviously, these kinds of the-sky-is-the-limit near-exponential curves eventually fizzle. But they can last longer than imagined. These amounts only reflect the construction costs of the buildings, the improvements around the buildings, and the equipment integrated into the buildings, such as HVAC systems. The amounts do not include the most expensive parts of a functioning data center: the servers, the racks, the electronic and optical equipment to connect the servers to the internet, the electrical equipment to supply power and cooling to the servers, the power generators, the transmission lines, etc. To accommodate this mad rush to build data centers as quickly as possible, construction companies and suppliers have developed technologies that speed up the work of building and equipping data centers to get them up and running faster. According to a report by the WSJ, they include:

• Custom concrete: “Cement manufacturer Amrize uses predictive modeling to design custom concrete mixes, a process traditionally done through lengthy trial and error; time savings: several weeks.
• Robotic concrete driller: “Stanley Black & Decker’s DeWalt brand and August Robotics have created a robot that drills thousands of holes to anchor server racks and other systems to the floor; time savings: six weeks.”
• Off-site construction of electrical and mechanical rooms: “Clayco and Turner subsidiary xPL Offsite make modular electrical and mechanical rooms at off-site factories, then truck them to data centers for installation; Time savings: several months.”
• Optical cable connectors: “3M makes components for fiber optic cables that allow servers to be connected in seconds, not minutes. A data center can have hundreds of thousands of connectors. Time savings: six months.”

Bottlenecks and shortages have dogged the manufacturers of on-site power generation equipment, especially gas turbines. Companies have started repurposing retired jet engines for on-site power generators. Musk has jumped into the fray to alleviate the shortages for his own data centers. In July, he acquired APR Energy, which makes among other things gas-turbine power generator sets. But the biggest bottleneck for gas turbine manufacturers are the blades and vanes, so Musk confirmed over the weekend that SpaceX will start manufacturing turbine blades and vanes. Shortages of semiconductors, including memory chips for AI servers, have caused prices of semiconductors to soar, and they have started to spread to consumer electronics, and from there to inflation metrics. There are now shortages of specialized labor, such as electricians. This kind of sudden maniac spending boom, funded by corporate cash and massive debt and equity issuance, leaves its marks everywhere, including by helping to push up government bond yields as they all compete for the same pool of money. This drive to build and equip and power up gigantic data centers, no matter what the costs and hurdles, is pulling resources and labor from other projects, and costs are rising, and we’re already seeing it in the inflation data.

A huge AI datacenter is planned near Mar-a-Lago. The Everglades could pay the price  - About 16 miles (26km) west of the Mar-a-Lago estate on President Donald J Trump Highway, near the northern edge of the Florida Everglades, developers have proposed a hyperscale datacenter on a 202-acre (82-hectare) parcel of land surrounded by water. Local environmentalists warn that the proposed 600MW datacenter in western Palm Beach county could damage the wetlands, which the federal government and the state of Florida have spent a combined $6bn to restore after decades of drainage and development.One concern is that the datacenter could exacerbate an existing issue of toxic bacterial blooms in a water system which has already been stressed by drought, fertilizer runoff and warm water temperatures. In recent summers, the bright blooms of blue-green algae have covered nearly half of Lake Okeechobee, which feeds into the Everglades. The cyanobacteria blooms produce a toxin known as microcystin, which can make people and animals sick and contaminate drinking water. On 30 July the Florida department of health in Palm Beach county issued a health alert about cyanobacteria presence in the lake. Reinaldo Diaz grew up in Palm Beach county and founded Lake Worth Waterkeeper, a non-profit dedicated to protecting the watershed. He said waste heat from the proposed datacenter, called Project Tango, could increase the water temperatures in the surrounding watershed, putting the Florida Everglades further at risk of toxic bacterial blooms. “Our watershed is really complex,” Diaz said. “Ours is more like a spiderweb. That’s why the impacts would be far reaching.” North-east of the proposed Project Tango site, the habitat changes quickly. Beneath a canopy of bald cypress and native palm trees, the Loxahatchee River winds through one of the few surviving remnants of the northern Everglades. During the Guardian’s recent visit the buzz of dog-day cicadas overwhelmed the distant hum of traffic. Though the Everglades once stretched much farther north, water still circulates through this interconnected landscape through canals, sugarcane fields and grassy waters to surrounding lakes and marshes.  Diaz’s environmental concerns, like many, are linked to the amount of electricity a 600MW datacenter could consume, enough to generate enormous amounts of heat. Based on US Energy Information estimates of residential electricity use, at peak capacity a 600MW datacenter could use as much power as half a million US homes. The high energy use of datacenters can also mean costly upgrades to the power grid, which can drive up electricity costs for households. Earthjustice attorney Christina Reichert is representing neighbors with the Western Palm Beach Community Alliance in opposition to Project Tango. The group has challenged the developers’ efforts to convert a previously approved 2016 plan for warehouses and a server farm on the light industrial site into a hyperscale datacenter. Reichert said a hyperscale datacenter could have offsite water, air and sound impacts not covered by light industrial use zoning. “One of the concerns we had about this location is the risk of increasing the heat in this area because it could lead to algal blooms in that canal that could compromise drinking water and Everglades restoration,” Reichert said. Last month President Trump downplayed the concerns of datacenter neighbors at a press conference to double down on his non-binding pledge for datacenter developers to bear their own electricity costs. “You have to convince your community how great these things [are]. You can’t fight it. You have to go with it,” he said. But Sue Ellen Loyzelle, who lives in the planned community of Arden next door to the Project Tango site and is a founding member of Western Palm Beach Community Alliance, said regulations needed to be in place to reduce the potential effects to communities. “We don’t want our bills to go up, but it’s more than that,” she said. “What is all of this going to do?”  At a Palm Beach county zoning last month, residents spoke about the proximity of the proposed Project Tango datacenter to a local elementary school (about 1,200 feet). They said they were concerned about the potential noise, higher traffic, heat pollution, lower property values and higher energy bills that the project could bring. After more than 12 hours of testimony, commissioners voted 5-1 to deny an expansion of the proposed datacenter. Still, two more administrative applications from the developers that could add square footage to the datacenter remain on the table. “There’s nowhere in Palm Beach county where it would be acceptable to put one of these,” Diaz said. “But the place they are choosing is egregious.”The proposed Project Tango site is across the street from a pump station that serves as the first step in pushing freshwater to the southern Everglades. While water use has been a major concern with datacenters, the applicant for the project, PBA Holdings, Inc, says this 600MW facility would be different. At the Palm Beach county commissioners zoning hearing in July, project manager Ernie Cox said that the proposed datacenter would use a closed-loop cooling system that recirculates water, which could reduce the project’s water consumption. But Diaz said heat generated by the facility would still need to go somewhere and even a few degrees increase in temperature could fuel bacterial blooms in nearby waterways that are connected to the Everglades and nearby drinking water systems. Emerging research suggests that even much smaller datacenters can increase downwind air temperature by as much as 2C.Many of the ingredients for bacterial blooms, like phosphorus and nitrogen, already exist in nearby canals from decades of agricultural runoff from nearby farmland, where sugarcane is the dominant crop. Even warming the water up a couple degrees could be like adding fuel to the fire, Diaz said.Green algae blooms are seen at the Port Mayaca lock and dam on Lake Okeechobee in July 2018 in Port Mayaca, Florida. Photograph: Joe Raedle/Getty Images A health and safety assessment commissioned by PBA Holdings acknowledges that the datacenter could heat the air 1C to 2C (2F to 4F) around the cooling equipment, but dismisses concerns that the heat would reach the nearby community and school, explaining that prevailing winds would carry the heat in the opposite direction. The assessment doesn’t address the risk for toxic bacterial blooms. In regulatory filings, PBA Holdings reported spending $20m on county approvals and ensuring the site has the power reliability for data and information processing. The developers say they chose the site because of its proximity to the largest natural gas power plant in the United States, the West County Energy Center, operated by Florida Power & Light Company.

Benchmarking AI adoption: What US Bank's playbook tells us | American Banker Six actions outlined by U.S. Bank's Chief AI Officer Prashant Mehrotra offer a real-world framework for turning AI experimentation into measurable, scalable and accountable value. So it practically takes the bank through actions 1 - 5 again and that is probably the best validation of the process: Each major AI initiative will likely start a new iteration and this is a journey that will take many interactions to complete. For example, once in production, agentic AI could compound financial outcomes from the previous cycle while starting a new round of adoption. The adoption journey is less a straight line than a series of loops.

Beyond ROI: How banks can better measure AI ROI and business impact | American Banker -Banks face three interconnected challenges as they move from experimenting with AI to integrating it into their businesses: making AI adoption measurable, scalable and accountable. The measurement challenge is coming to the fore as rising costs force executives to explain what their growing portfolio of AI initiatives actually produces.

5 dystopian AI futures bankers heard about at Jackson Hole | American Banker - "Carpenters build tables. Bankers build trust; so do central bankers," said Markus Brunnermeier, a Princeton University professor, at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's Economic Policy Symposium this week. "AI has the potential to disrupt institutions and trust in a fundamental and qualitatively new way."Brunnermeier laid out several scenarios in which AI could fundamentally disrupt banking and financial markets to an audience of about 120 global central bankers, economists and academics at the conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. This year's attendees included Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem.

• Key insight: Global bank regulators listened to a series of warnings about the havoc AI can wreak on financial markets and the banking system.
• Expert quote: " If the value creation and value capture of the new AI technology are concentrated in one or a few firms, these firms constitute choke points: their terms, prices and outages propagate everywhere at once. They also have the power to extract undue rents and exercise excessive bargaining power on the rest of the economy and society at large." —Markus Brunnermeier, professor, Princeton University
• Forward look: Brunnermeier would like bank regulators to be able to evaluate major new AI models before they're released to the public.

How banks are navigating the AI data center backlash | American Banker - Power-plant engineers like to tell an apocryphal story about going door to door, asking people if it would be OK to put a power plant near their house. If the homeowner says no, the next question is, could you stop using computers, TVs, blow dryers, refrigerators, air conditioning and heat? If the answer to that is no, an engineer takes a giant pair of scissors and cuts that home off the grid.  The point is, no one likes having a power plant in their neighborhood, but everyone needs them. The escalating use of generative AI has driven a boom in construction of data centers and the power plants upon which they rely: the International Energy Agency expects data-center electricity consumption to more than double to around 945 trillion watt-hours by 2030 — more energy than the entire country of Japan uses today.

• Key insight: Heavy community opposition is presenting a new risk to banks that finance data centers.
• Expert quote: "It's a rising risk, especially if the assumptions people are making — that in 10 years' time we're going to use AI in 95% of everyday life — don't happen. That's why they are trying to offload or at least find solutions like syndicated loans and securitization." —Arnaud Journois, senior vice president of Morningstar
• What's at stake: Communities face noise and air pollution and water and power shortages due to the enormous new data centers.

BankThink:  Banks are outsourcing their AI strategies to their vendors | American Banker  - Until regulators provide clear guidance on advanced AI, it's up to banks to ask the right questions and understand their deal breakers before entering any vendor partnerships, writes Rebecca McKenzie. Bank-fintech relationships are responsible for some of the most popular financial innovations of our time. We have these relationships to thank for neobanking, an innovation that has lowered the barrier to entry for banking and improved financial inclusion.

• Key insight: As banks integrate AI into their systems, they are becoming accountable for decision-making architectures that they did not design and have no real insight into. That means they need to ask their vendors some hard questions.
• What's at stake: A good vendor can make risk legible, but it can never make it someone else's responsibility. 
• Forward look: With technology this new and unregulated, there's no such thing as being overly cautious or asking too many questions.

Consumers don't trust banks' chatbots. Can this be changed?  | American Banker  - [Graphic: Most Americans have little trust in their bank's virtual assistant.] Americans have little faith in their banks' virtual assistants, a just-released survey has found.  The survey, part of RFI Global's U.S. Innovation Monitor, asked 4,000 U.S. consumers how much they trust their bank's chatbot (among other things). About 33% said they trust their bank's virtual assistant "a lot" to answer product questions, 32% trust it for fraud alerts, 30% for learning about money, 28% for budget insights and 27% for reviewing finances. The vast majority of respondents trust these assistants a little or not at all.

• Key insight: Americans don't trust their banks' virtual assistants.
• What's at stake: With more people using frontier models like Claude and ChatGPT for financial help, banks need to step up to compete.
• Forward look: Stronger data management, better fraud mitigation and experimentation with generative AI in virtual assistants could all help boost credibility, experts say.

Citi's use of Swift blockchain extends tokenized deposits' reach - Citi began using Swift's new distributed ledger this week to make its tokenized deposits work beyond its own network of branches and clients.  The New York bank began offering Citi Token Services two years ago; it was one of American Banker's 2025 Innovations of the Year. It enables the near-instant movement of tokenized deposits across accounts within Citi's network at any time, including after business hours and on weekends.

• Key insight: Working with Swift's new blockchain gives Citi a way to extend its tokenized deposits to other banks.
• Expert quote: "We envisage a future where more and more banks are able to use the ledger, that then enables velocity of movement of settlements of payments at a much higher scale." —Debopama Sen, global head of payments at Citi.
• Forward look: It may take some time for all Swift members to integrate their systems with its new distributed ledger.

Swift's network of 11,500 banks can exchange deposit tokens in a standardized way.

Bank Think: Behind the shiny new technology, you always need a human banker | American Banker - After years of widespread branch closures in America, we've recently seen a notable resurgence in branch investment, writes Dave Martin. One of the most common comments I've received over the many years I've spent making presentations to bankers is that most of the subject matter I address could be just as appropriate outside of banking.

• Key insight: Banks are investing in ever-more capable technology, from new banking apps to AI-enabled back-office systems. But what keeps customers coming back continues to be their relationships with real bankers.
• What's at stake: Technology, facilities and strategies are all relatively easy to copy. An educated, engaged, and motivated team is not.
• Forward look: As artificial intelligence becomes more common, real conversations and authentic communication between leaders and their teams become even more critical.

Treasury stablecoin proposal casts broad compliance net - The Treasury Department last Monday proposed a rule establishing that only authorized issuers that follow standards outlined under the GENIUS Act may issue payment stablecoins for the U.S. market. The proposal also makes clear that the rules can extend to activity that occurs overseas in instances where U.S. residents buy a stablecoin. The rule is set to be published Tuesday and will be open for comment for 60 days. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the agency is eager to hear public comment on the proposal.

• Key insight: Treasury's proposal would apply to entities beyond stablecoin issuers, potentially holding exchanges and other intermediaries responsible for aiding unlawful stablecoin issuance.
• Supporting data: The rule could apply to overseas activity involving U.S. customers and would require platforms to conduct "reasonable due diligence" on foreign stablecoin issuers.
• Forward look: Treasury is seeking comment on offshore safe harbors and an emergency mechanism for suspending the restrictions in unusual circumstances.

Int'l banks plan stablecoin, OpenPayd enters US market -In this week's banking news roundup:

• A consortium of international FIs plan to issue a U.S. stablecoin in early 2027
• London-based OpenPayd enters the U.S. by acquiring MSB U.S.A.
• The U.K. fined Citi £4.7 million ($6.3 million) for hundreds of transactions in breach of sanctions against Russia; and more.

A consortium of international FIs are planning to issue a U.S. stablecoin in early 2027; London-based OpenPayd has entered the U.S. through its acquisition of MSB USA; the U.K. fined Citi £4.7 million ($6.3 million) for hundreds of transactions in breach of sanctions against Russia; and more in this week's banking news roundup.

SEC proposal aims to bring crypto innovation and investment onshore -- The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is moving to give crypto companies a clearer path to raise capital in the United States as the agency seeks to bring crypto-asset investment and innovation back onshore while keeping activity under U.S. law. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins joined FOX Business' Cheryl Casone on "Mornings with Maria" to discuss the agency's new crypto proposal, its exemptions and the broader push to make the U.S. the "crypto capital" of the world. "Our regulation crypto assets that we're calling it, that we've proposed is our most historic step yet to try to bring reality to the president's call to make the United States the crypto capital world," Atkins said. The proposal comes as Congress considers the CLARITY Act, which Atkins said he hopes will ultimately reach the president's desk. The SEC is moving ahead with its own proposal and seeking public comment as it develops a regulatory framework alongside Congress' work on the legislation. Atkins framed the proposal as an effort to reverse an exodus of crypto innovators and give companies more reason to develop products and raise money in the United States. "I think this is an important step to try to reassure, to bring back on to the United States shore, innovators whom we have over the past administration's four year term, chased offshore, frankly, for them to develop their products and raise money abroad," he said. He also argued that keeping investment opportunities in the U.S. matters because Americans can already move capital across borders online. "We can't fool ourselves. American investors in the age of the internet can send their money anywhere. So we need to make sure that they can do it here in the United States under United States law," Atkins said.

Bank ID vendor traced to a dark web license sale | American Banker -  IDScan.net removed the pages naming its bank and credit union integrations after KrebsOnSecurity traced 153 million license scans to the company.

• Key insight: The records reportedly for sale paired ordinary scans of a license with its infrared and ultraviolet captures, which are the images a bank's authentication check reads.
• Supporting data: IDScan.net says it performs more than 21 million verifications a month at more than 20,000 locations.
• Forward look: Five proposed class actions were filed against IDScan.net in federal court in New Orleans within two days of the first report.

Overview bullets generated by AI with editorial review.

Fed Rate Comments Spark Powerful Bitcoin, Crypto Rally. Bitcoin ETFs Near Entries. | Investor's Business Daily - Bitcoin surged and cryptocurrency stocks soared Thursday after Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller hinted at a wait-and-see approach for September's interest rate decision. Crypto short liquidations gained steam Thursday as the price of bitcoin rose, adding more fuel to the rally. Circle led  gains for crypto stocks while spot bitcoin ETFs trended toward buy points.

Crypto News: New Meme Coin Pepeto Announces Approaching 50K Holders as Its Ethereum Crypto Presale Raised $10.92 Million ---- The biggest crypto news in the presale market today: almost 50,000 wallets now hold Pepeto (PEPETO), the new meme coin on Ethereum whose crypto presale has collected more than $10.9 million. During the coldest market in recent memory, when nearly every project struggled to raise a cent, tens of thousands of buyers checked this new meme coin closely and put real capital in anyway.That many buyers means real belief, and the belief has a simple reason: Pepeto skipped the shortcut every other meme token takes. Instead of using someone else's chain and hoping to go viral, this team built its own rails, EVM Layer 2 running on Ethereum, plus a full trading platform that fixes the three things hurting meme traders most: heavy gas costs, slow confirmations, and scam contracts.Such numbers are proof of trust and belief behind a new crypto. 50,000 with new wallets added every single day, and it grew through months when almost nobody cared about crypto. There was no pump to chase. These buyers saw the product taking shape, bought, and stayed, and buying that strong in a dead market is the clearest signal crypto can give.This new meme coin is not following the playbook, it is rewriting it. Free, fast, protected trading with the viral engine still bolted on, that mix does not improve the meme category, it opens an entirely different one.  One plain sentence explains the technology: because Layer 2 speaks Ethereum's language, every wallet, tool, and app from the main chain runs here untouched, while fees shrink to pennies and confirmations fly, and Ethereum's security never leaves the picture. Meme coins finally get technology that matches their speed.For more information about Pepeto, visit https://pepetocoin.com/   Here is where smart money sees the difference. PEPETO is no mascot, it powers PepetoSwap, an exchange where trading costs zero, and crucially, an exchange for the entire market, all coins welcome, not memes alone. Think about what that means: every trader tired of fees becomes a user, and every swap they make adds demand to the token instead of losing money to fees.The supporting pieces complete the machine. Lock and mint technology drives the bridge, assets lock on the chain they leave and mint on the chain they reach, so what leaves is exactly what lands, one clean route tying Ethereum, BNB Chain, and Solana together. The AI layer inspects every contract before any swap finalizes, ending rug pulls before they start. A finished SolidProof audit certifies the entire stack.Behind the code stands a team built for this mission: engineering led by a senior developer with years at Binance, under a project created by PEPE's original co-founder, the man who already turned one meme into billions and is now building with real tools.Look at the pace and the crypto news is clear: $10.9 million raised, holders pressing 50,000, and stages now closing early, each round faster than the last. Growth like this in a frozen market is the kind smart money trusts most, and this entry price only exists until the platform goes live.Entering the crypto presale takes minutes. Connect any non-custodial wallet at the official Pepeto site, buy directly, and stake within the same transaction, rewards begin instantly. ETH, USDT, and BNB all work, and the credit card option lets complete newcomers pay in fiat, no wallet setup, no swaps, no crypto knowledge needed, as easy for a first-timer as for a veteran. Ahead sits the event everything points toward: PepetoSwap and the bridge going public alongside the token's release, then the listings written into the plan. Most meme coins go to their listing with nothing but promises. Pepeto goes with everything already built on Ethereum. In years of watching this market, setups like this one appear rarely, this one will not stay open much longer. Almost 50,000 holders are already in, stages now sell out days ahead of schedule, so the presale could sell out in the few days ahead, and buying before the first Tier-1 Listing is the whole opportunity.

Cary woman loses thousands in jury duty crypto scam - A Cary woman is sharing her story after losing thousands of dollars in a sophisticated jury duty scam that authorities say is increasingly targeting Wake County residents. Mia says the ordeal started with what seemed like a legitimate phone call from someone claiming to be a deputy. “I answered the phone and the guy introduced himself as a deputy,” Mia told Troubleshooter Diane Wilson. What made the call seem real was the personal information the caller already knew. “He had my full name, my maiden name. He even read off my entire Social Security number. And so that made me think that this was legitimate,” she said. The caller claimed Mia had failed to appear for jury duty and was facing both civil and criminal charges. While she was on the phone, she says she received documents by text message that appeared to come from the U.S. Department of Justice outlining laws she had allegedly violated. “There was a warrant for my arrest, and they were going to help me take care of it,” Mia said. “They were going to walk me through the process, get me in the car, and have me basically post my bond.” Mia says the caller kept her on the phone for hours, directing her every move. She was instructed to withdraw thousands of dollars from her bank account and drive to a gas station in Apex. “I was instructed to go to the federal machine, where I would then put the money in under my name,” she said. The machine, however, was not a federal payment kiosk. It was a cryptocurrency ATM. “I thought it was a little bit strange that it was a Bitcoin machine, but he’s in my ear, right? Mia said. “He had me on the phone for hours, and you’re not able to walk away and think rationally.” After depositing thousands of dollars, Mia says the caller told her she had only covered the “state portion” of the charges and still needed to pay a federal portion. She deposited thousands more. The caller then told her the money would be held until she appeared before a judge the next day, at which point she would receive it back. Later that day, Mia realized she had been scammed. “I could not sleep, and I was in tears for a good solid week,” she said. “It was awful. It makes you question yourself. It makes you question other people. I’ve watched plenty of shows, and I’ve heard plenty of stories to know, you know, that this happens, and yet somehow, they have a way with their system. They get you.” She reported the incident to the police and is now speaking publicly in hopes of preventing others from becoming victims. “Embarrassing as I guess it might seem, I don’t want this to happen to anybody else. It was one of the most traumatizing experiences of my life. It was awful,” Mia said. Mia is not alone when it comes to falling for a scam where a bitcoin ATM is used. The ABC11 I-Team, in collaboration with ABC News, has been investigating scams involving cryptocurrency ATMs. These kiosks allow users to deposit cash and purchase cryptocurrency that can then be transferred to another person. The FBI reported that Americans lost nearly $389 million to cryptocurrency ATM scams in 2025.

GAO flags disclosure gaps exposed by 2023 bank failures  — Two of the three banks that failed in the spring of 2023 were subject to a weaker system of investor-disclosure oversight than most publicly traded companies, a new government report found.

• Key insight: The Government Accountability Office found that gaps in the oversight of bank disclosures may have left investors with an incomplete picture of risks at First Republic and Signature Bank before their 2023 failures.
• What's at stake: The watchdog said Congress should reconsider which agencies review disclosures from publicly traded banks without holding companies, while urging the Securities and Exchange Commission to provide additional guidance on risk-limit breaches.
• Forward look: The SEC disagreed with the GAO's recommendations.

Two of the banks that collapsed in 2023 were subject to a weaker system of investor-disclosure oversight than most public companies, prompting the government watchdog to call for changes.

Fed ends enforcement action against United Texas Bank -- The Federal Reserve Board terminated an enforcement action against a small Texas bank that drew the ire of the top Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee earlier this year.

• Key insight: The Federal Reserve Board Friday ended its 2-year-old enforcement action against United Texas Bank, signaling that the firm has addressed concerns related to its internal anti-money-laundering controls.
• Expert quote: "Granting United Texas Bank a national bank charter sets a dangerous precedent that gives other banks the green-light to convert their charters to the lowest common denominator regulator rather than fix the serious issues that may put the U.S. financial system at risk." — Senate Banking Committee ranking member Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass.
• Forward look: The bank is still under a consent order from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, which became its primary regulator earlier this year.

Federal agencies reverse Biden-era credit guidance - The Trump administration moved Monday to reverse Biden-era guidance that encouraged creditors to offer special purpose credit programs to underserved communities. In a notice published in the Federal Register, seven federal agencies, including the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, said they were rescinding the 2022 guidance to ensure creditors do not engage in activities that violate the Equal Credit Opportunity Act and its implementing regulation, Regulation B. 

• Key takeaway: Federal agencies rolled back Biden-era guidance Monday that encouraged creditors to offer special purpose credit programs to underserved communities.
• Expert quote: "Federal law does not authorize any generalized remedial 'equity' initiatives absent specific cases of unlawful discrimination, and creditors should not rely upon previous guidance which may have suggested otherwise." — Federal Register notice.
• What's at stake: The rescission of the Biden-era guidance follows the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's April amendment to Regulation B, which imposed new restrictions on special purpose credit programs offered by for-profit creditors.

Banks ended aid to minority borrowers before official ban | American Banker -A recent Trump administration directive may have sealed the fate of so-called special purpose credit programs, which a number of lenders had used to boost lending to minority communities. But for banks, the writing had already been on the wall for months.

House Republicans debut CFPB reform package  — House Republicans have introduced their Consumer Financial Protection Bureau revamp, which includes a provision to bring the bureau under the congressional appropriations umbrella.

• Key insight: House Republicans are proposing to overhaul the CFPB's funding structure. 
• What's at stake: The package includes a number of reforms wanted by banks, including limiting some of the bureau's authority to regulate "abusive" practices and providing a safe harbor for some small dollar lending products offered by depository institutions. 
• Forward look: The package is unlikely to advance this Congress, but is intended to build consensus ahead of the next Congress.

The Republican proposal would bring the CFPB under congressional appropriations and curb several of its regulatory powers.

Pulte: 'cartel-like' bureaus should cut costs, eyes bi-merge -  Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte is renewing calls for lower credit reporting costs, calling the bureaus "cartel-like" as he shows new interest in tri-merge alternatives. The big three's trade group has said they operate legally and protect the industry with a trio of reports. FHFA also is opening up VantageScore for all lenders.

How in-house AI coding risks unexpected token, upkeep costs | American Banker - Mortgage lenders tempted to let AI 'vibe code' their way to more affordable in-house software may be underestimating the price tag and the risk. As tools like Claude and ChatGPT make it possible for non-developers to build tech in a matter of prompts, industry advisors warn that token costs, compliance exposure and staff turnover can quickly erase any savings over buying from a vendor and more than 40% of agentic AI projects are on pace to be abandoned by 2027. A recent Trump administration directive may have sealed the fate of so-called special purpose credit programs, which a number of lenders had used to boost lending to minority communities. But for banks, the writing had already been on the wall for months. Risks of In-House AI Coding

• Metered Token Costs: AI giants charge for development based on usage, and unexpected consumption catches many companies off guard. [1]
• High Project Abandonment: More than 40% of agentic AI projects face abandonment by the end of 2027 due to unclear returns on investment and unexpected upkeep. [1]
• Compliance and Bias: In-house AI tools struggle with regulatory exposure, and testing reveals error rates up to 77% when processing non-English names. [1]
• Structural Limitations: Front-end coding costs drop with AI, but underlying operational expenses and structural workflows to originate loans remain high

Turns Out, the Labor Market is OK Despite All Moaning & Groaning about the Economy or Whatever by Wolf Richter - Payrolls at nonfarm employers jumped by 162,000 workers in August from July (blue columns in the chart). The prior two months were revised up substantially: July by 44,000, to a gain (+21,000) from an originally reported drop (-21,000); and June by 11,000. And most of the huge July drop in local government employment (mostly educators) of -62,000, the biggest month-to-month drop in years, largely bounced back in August with a gain of +50,000. The six-month average job gain, which irons out the month-to-month squiggles and revised quirks, rose to +107,000, the biggest gain since July 2024 (red line). This job growth is occurring despite a declining labor force that resulted from the crackdown on illegal immigration and the wave of boomer retirements. So this report on nonfarm payrolls, released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics today based on surveys of employers, ironed out some of the quirks in the July report. And for the Fed, as it contemplates whether or not it should hike its policy rates, this data today removed any remaining worries about the labor market. The 12 voting members of the FOMC can now solely focus on getting their messy inflation-house in order. Two major private-sector categories shed jobs:

• Financial activities (-11,000)
• Information (-23,000).

All other major private-sector categories gained jobs:

• Leisure and hospitality (+62,000), July revised up to -21,000 from -40,000;
• Healthcare (+28,400); July revised down to +13,100 from +22,000
• Construction (+22,000);
• Manufacturing (+16,000), July revised up to +14,000 from +5,000; year-to-date: +58,000.
• Professional and business services (+10,000);
• Wholesale trade (+7,800);
• Transportation & warehousing (+5,000), July revised up to +13,800 from +10,000;
• Other services (+3,000).
• Retail trade (+1.400); July revised up to +13,200 from -19,000).

Note the flat spot from April 2025 through February 2026, and the rise since then. That flat spot was in part caused by massive job cuts at the federal government that reduced its payrolls by 11%, or by 336,000 jobs. Those federal job reductions have largely ended now. State governments have cut 55,000 jobs over the same period, mostly in higher education, as many state universities and colleges have come under enrollment pressures. Combined, they have cut nearly 400,000 jobs at a time when private sector job growth was already slow. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.27% in August from July, and by 3.1% year-over-year, to $37.75 per hour. Inflation has been running hot for months, with the most recent CPI rising by 3.4%, and this wage gain of 3.1% is lagging the rate of CPI inflation, after outrunning CPI inflation over the past three years through early 2026. The labor force has been on a downward trend as a result of the crackdown on illegal immigration, the tightening up of legal immigration, and the continuing boomer retirements. The labor force consists of people who are working and people who are not working but are actively looking for work. When a person decides to retire, they exit the labor force. The data is collected via surveys of households. The labor force rose in August, after two big monthly drops. Given the big month-to-month swings in the labor force data, and the huge adjustments, we look at the three-month average, which irons them out and shows the trend. The three-month average in August dropped by another 100,000 people in the labor force. Since the peak in December, the three-month average labor force has dropped by 2.07 million. This continued drop in the labor force – representing a decline in the supply of labor – has changed the dynamics of the labor market, leading among other things to a very low unemployment rate, despite so-so job creation. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, a historically low rate within a 50-year timeframe, largely because of the shrinking supply of labor. The unemployment rate reflects the number of unemployed people who are actively looking for a job (7.03 million) divided by the labor force (169.8 million). The prime-age labor force participation rate remained at 83.4% in August, same as in July, and both were up from June (blue in the chart below). The three-month average declined to 83.4% (red). This range that has prevailed since mid-2024 is the highest in over 20 years. The prime-age labor force consists of people between 25 and 54 years old. It eliminates the issue of the retiring boomers. When people retire and stop looking for a job, they’re no longer “participating” in the labor force but remain in the population until they die. It’s the surge of boomer retirements over the past 15 years that has pushed down the overall labor force participation rate (not shown here), but not the prime-age labor force participation rate.

These occupations may see the fastest job decline in the next decade: Labor Department - It’s no secret that the health care sector has fueled the nation’s job growth in recent years. Some 18 million Americans work in health care, data from the Labor Department shows. That’s only expected to grow over the next decade, according to new Labor Department projections: six of the 10 fastest-growing jobs are health care related. Not every sector is seeing employment growth, though. In its report released on Thursday, the Labor Department identified the 30 occupations projected to be the fastest-declining over the next decade. Some occupations may be impacted by the growth of AI, of course. That includes word processors and typists, which the Labor Department predicts will see the fastest decline in employment through 2035. The industry’s employment could fall by more than 34% over the next decade, according to the federal projections. That’s a larger employment change than some of the fastest-growing industries are forecast to see. The interactive table below shows the 30 occupations that the Labor Department projects will see employment drop the most over the next 10 years: Many of these occupations have a median income below $50,000, according to Labor Department data. Among the lowest paid are telemarketers, sewing machine operators, and pressers for textile, garment, and related materials. While employment among word processors and typists may decline at the fastest rate over the next decade, a second Labor Department projection suggests a different occupation may experience the largest drop in jobs. In a report considering the numeric change in employment, the Labor Department projected that employment of word processors and typists could decline from roughly 40,400 to about 26,500 – a drop of about 13,900 jobs. This dime could sell for more than $1 million: How to tell if yours is worth the same As of 2025, more than 3.1 million people are employed as cashiers. By 2035, the Labor Department estimates that tally will be about 2.9 million – a decline of more than 200,000, or about 14 times the job decline among word processors and typists.

Mamdani cracks down on AI in schools: Map of districts taking similar steps - New York City Public Schools, the nation’s largest school district, is imposing a one-year moratorium on student-facing generative artificial intelligence (AI) through eighth grade, marking one of the most aggressive restrictions on AI in U.S. classrooms. Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Schools Chancellor Kamar Samuels announced the policy on Wednesday, saying the district will pause the use of student-facing generative AI tools for younger students for a year while officials study the technology’s impact on learning and child development. The restrictions affect roughly 600,000 students and include a ban on AI companion chatbots across all grades. “Children need teachers and human connection in order to learn and grow. They need to develop skills alongside their peers, build relationships with educators and wrestle with tough problems on their own,” Mamdani said in a Wednesday press release. Samuels added, “We’re putting guardrails in place to protect the human connection, curiosity and creativity that help children grow. We’re standing firmly in our belief that innovation does not mean more technology, and over the next year, we will lead with evidence to make sure technology serves learning — not the other way around.”  Mamdani’s move comes amid a growing divide among various educators, parents, and policymakers over the role of AI in schools. As some districts expand AI literacy programs and classroom use, others have imposed new guardrails or restrictions, arguing that unchecked use could stunt critical-thinking skills, increase screen time and create various academic integrity and privacy concerns. Mamdani’s policy imposes a one-year moratorium on student-facing generative AI for students from pre-K through eighth grade, affecting roughly 600,000 students in New York City’s public school system. The restrictions are set to begin with the 2026-27 school year while the city studies the technology’s impact on learning and child development. The Technology in Schools coalition includes students, educators, parent leaders, elected officials, advocates, union partners, and experts, all of whom will help assess the impact of the new policy and publish a report. “The tech industry wants us to believe that A.I.-powered early education is not only inevitable, but necessary. We do not see it that way. That’s why we’re implementing a moratorium on generative AI for students in 2-K through 8th grade and spending the next year studying the impacts of this technology,” the mayor said. The plan includes five limited AI pilot programs for high school students, featuring tools such as Quill for English language arts, Edia for math, Brisk Teaching for text and video instruction, Playlab and Intel AI-Ready Schools. New York Governor Kathy Hochul backed the move, saying in the Wednesday press release, “New York State has been leading the way in our efforts to keep kids focused on learning and growing — not clicking and scrolling — and I commend Mayor Mamdani for building on this work and pushing our shared commitment to supporting New York’s kids forward.”

Experts are worried as more US college students are arriving without knowing how to read - A growing number of college professors report that students are arriving on campus without the reading proficiency traditionally expected at this stage. This shift did not happen suddenly, it reflects a long, gradual decline in reading habits across the country. Recent data shows that a significant portion of Americans did not read a single book last year, marking a sharp drop compared to previous decades. While social platforms have attempted to revive interest in books, especially among younger audiences, overall engagement remains low. Young adults between 18 and 29 read fewer books on average than any other age group. As literacy levels fall, educators and families are beginning to question whether the current structure of higher education still aligns with students’ preparedness and needs. Reading has long been viewed as a foundational indicator of future academic and professional success. Studies examining the habits of high achievers consistently highlight reading as a shared practice, linking strong literacy skills to critical thinking, adaptability, and long-term learning. From business leaders to public figures, the ability to engage deeply with written information remains a common thread. Despite this, national literacy data presents a concerning picture. A large percentage of adults struggle with reading comprehension beyond basic levels, and a notable share fall well below what is considered functional literacy. University instructors across disciplines report encountering students who find it difficult to process textbooks, instructions, and extended written arguments. Some educators describe a sense of awareness among students themselves. Many recognize their own limitations but feel disconnected from the motivation to improve. The increasing reliance on digital shortcuts and AI-generated summaries may be accelerating this gap, reducing opportunities to practice sustained reading and comprehension. As concerns grow, many experts argue that the traditional four-year college model should no longer be viewed as the default option for every student. Postsecondary education remains valuable, but its format may need to better reflect individual readiness, interests, and strengths. Alternative pathways are gaining attention, including career and technical education programs, certifications, and trade-focused training. These options often require less time, cost significantly less, and lead directly to stable, well-paying careers. For students who struggle academically or feel disconnected from conventional coursework, such paths can offer practical and fulfilling outcomes. The financial implications are difficult to ignore. College costs continue to rise, while student debt follows graduates for decades. In contrast, shorter programs allow individuals to invest in skills more quickly and enter the workforce with fewer financial burdens. As educators emphasize, society continues to rely on skilled professionals across technical fields, many of whom build successful lives without a traditional degree The growing literacy gap is prompting a broader reevaluation of education itself. Rather than forcing a single model to fit all students, experts suggest a more flexible system, one that values reading, critical thinking, and meaningful skill development, while recognizing that success can take many different forms.

MIT Student Claims To Make One Of The World’s Deadliest Chemicals, Sparking HAZMAT Response - A potentially dangerous laboratory incident at MIT triggered a hazmat response last week after a graduate student told medical personnel he believed he had created dimethylmercury, a highly toxic mercury compound, according to the NY Post.The student, who has not been publicly identified, went to a local emergency room and reported the possible synthesis. That claim was serious enough to prompt MIT to close Building 18, part of its chemistry complex, while emergency crews and university officials assessed the situation.MIT later said the student was not authorized to work with dimethylmercury and that the substance was unrelated to his approved research.As a precaution, the university also took steps outside the laboratory. Shared spaces in the student’s residence hall were professionally cleaned, while the student’s own room was sealed during the investigation.The NY Post writes that by Saturday, however, the situation had become less clear. MIT said new information had raised doubts about whether dimethylmercury had actually been produced. The university also said the student’s first blood test showed no evidence of mercury exposure, although the student remained under medical observation.Testing and investigative work continued through the weekend, with Building 18 remaining closed through Sunday.Dimethylmercury is considered an exceptionally hazardous substance because even a very small exposure can be deadly. The chemical is perhaps best known for the 1997 death of Dartmouth chemistry professor Karen Wetterhahn, who was exposed when a tiny amount reached her hand despite the gloves she was wearing.The compound has also surfaced in at least one criminal case. It was reportedly used in the 2012 killing of a German labor union official.MIT has not yet said definitively whether the student succeeded in making the chemical, leaving the central question of the incident unresolved even after the emergency response and cleanup.

Judge declares Rubio’s speech-based student deportations violate the Constitution – A federal judge on Friday declared that the Trump administration’s efforts to deport noncitizens for political speech run counter to the Constitution’s First and Fifth Amendments, the latest legal rebuke of the White House’s expansive immigration agenda. Northern District of California Judge Noël Wise, an appointee of former President Joe Biden, sided with the Stanford Daily, which sued Secretary of State Marco Rubio, arguing that his use of the Immigration and Nationality Act to deport noncitizen students had foreign students refraining from writing opinion pieces critical of the administration.”In the United States, freedom of speech belongs to the people,” Wise wrote in her opinion. “It is not the government’s to take.” Another plaintiff was an unnamed woman who is a lawful noncitizen in the U.S. who was previously in the country on a student visa at a school that was not Stanford and “has refrained from publishing and voicing her true opinions regarding Palestine and Israel and has deleted a social media account to guard against retaliation for past expression,” according to court documents. “Here you can simultaneously hate the content of a person’s speech and love the country that cherishes the freedom to allow it,” Wise wrote. “Zealous protection of our Constitutional right to free speech is a provocative demonstration of our country’s powerful lack of fear.” A State Department spokesperson, given anonymity to discuss internal thought processes within the agency, told POLITICO that the U.S. “is under no obligation to admit or suffer the presence of individuals who subvert our laws and deny our citizens their Constitutional rights.” “More broadly, the Department of State is committed to protecting our nation and its citizens by upholding the highest standards of national security and public safety through our visa process,” the spokesperson said. “A visa is a privilege, not a right.” The ruling comes after the administration’s campaign last year to revoke visas and seek the deportations of foreign students involved in the pro-Palestinian movement. Among those subjected to deportation proceedings were Columbia University activists Mahmoud Khalil and Mohsen Mahdawi, Tufts University doctoral grad Rümeysa Öztürk and Georgetown University scholar Badar Khan Suri.Khalil, a green card holder, was detained for more than three months after leading pro-Palestinian protests on his campus. Mahdawi, also a lawful permanent resident, was arrested after he appeared for a citizenship interview. Öztürk was detained by masked agents in Boston after the State Department revoked her student visa because of an op-ed she co-authored criticizing her school’s response to the war in Gaza.. The cases became part of a broader legal and political fight over the administration’s efforts to crack down on campus activism they viewed as not aligned with their foreign policy.

Annenberg poll: Americans trust their doctors when it comes to public health, but not FDA, CDC   -  A longitudinal poll conducted by the Annenberg Public Policy Center from April 2021 to August 2026 shows Americans’ confidence in their personal healthcare providers to inform them about matters of public health remains high.In August 2026, 87% of poll respondents say they are confident that their doctor, nurse, or other primary healthcare provider is providing trustworthy information about matters of public health, statistically unchanged from 88% in September 2024, the policy center said.But confidence in the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), and the National Institutes of Health (NIH) has dropped precipitously since February 2025, when Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was named head of the Department of Health and Human Services. Kennedy has said on numerous occasions that his goal is to “restore faith” in federal health agencies.A total of 61% expressed confidence in the CDC as of August 2026, significantly below the 72% who expressed confidence in the CDC in September 2024. Confidence in the FDA is 59% in August 2026, significantly below the 73% expressing confidence in September 2024. Confidence in the NIH went from 74% in September 2024 to 61% in August 2026.“We don’t see evidence in our data that the Trump administration is restoring trust in the federal health agencies,” Laura A. Gibson, an APPC research analyst, said in a press release.

Long-term melatonin use linked to 90% higher heart failure risk  - Long-term use of melatonin, a widely used sleep supplement, was linked to a higher risk of heart failure, hospitalization for heart failure, and death from any cause among people with chronic insomnia, according to preliminary research presented at the American Heart Association's Scientific Sessions 2025. The findings do not prove that melatonin itself caused the increased risks. However, they raise new questions about the long-term safety of a supplement that many people view as a harmless or "natural" way to improve sleep. Melatonin is a hormone made naturally by the pineal gland in the brain. It helps control the body's sleep and wake cycle, also known as the circadian rhythm. Levels of the hormone typically rise when it gets dark and fall during daylight. Synthetic melatonin is chemically identical to the hormone produced by the body. It is commonly used for insomnia (difficulty falling and/or staying asleep) and jet lag. Melatonin supplements are available over the counter in many countries, including the U.S. In the U.S., over-the-counter supplements are not regulated, so each brand of supplement can vary in strength, purity, etc. For the new study, researchers divided participants according to their documented melatonin use. People with at least one year of melatonin use recorded in their electronic medical records were placed in the "melatonin group." Those with no record of melatonin use anywhere in their medical records were assigned to the "non-melatonin group." "Melatonin supplements may not be as harmless as commonly assumed. If our study is confirmed, this could affect how doctors counsel patients about sleep aids," Melatonin is often promoted as a safe sleep aid, but researchers say there is limited evidence about its cardiovascular safety when taken for extended periods. That uncertainty led the team to investigate whether long-term melatonin use might be associated with heart failure among people who already had chronic insomnia. Heart failure does not mean that the heart has completely stopped working. It develops when the heart cannot pump enough oxygen-rich blood to meet the body's needs. According to the American Heart Association's 2025 Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics, the condition affects about 6.7 million adults in the U.S.   Researchers examined five years of medical records for adults with chronic insomnia whose records showed melatonin use for more than a year. Those participants were matched with other people who also had insomnia but had no documented melatonin use. Anyone who had already been diagnosed with heart failure or who had been prescribed other sleep medications was excluded. Among adults with insomnia, people with documented long-term melatonin use (12 months or more) had about a 90% higher chance of developing heart failure during the following five years compared with matched nonusers. Heart failure occurred in 4.6% of the melatonin group compared with 2.7% of the comparison group. When they limited the analysis to people who had filled at least two melatonin prescriptions at least 90 days apart, the association remained. That group had an 82% higher risk of heart failure. (Melatonin is only available by prescription in the United Kingdom.) A secondary analysis found even larger differences in some outcomes. People in the melatonin group were nearly 3.5 times as likely to be hospitalized for heart failure as those in the comparison group. The hospitalization rates were 19.0% and 6.6%, respectively. Deaths from any cause were also more common among people with documented melatonin use. During the five-year period, 7.8% of participants in the melatonin group died compared with 4.3% of those in the non-melatonin group, making the risk nearly twice as high. "Melatonin supplements are widely thought of as a safe and 'natural' option to support better sleep, so it was striking to see such consistent and significant increases in serious health outcomes, even after balancing for many other risk factors," Nnadi said. The results also drew concern from sleep researcher Marie-Pierre St-Onge, Ph.D., C.C.S.H., FAHA, who was not involved in the study. "I'm surprised that physicians would prescribe melatonin for insomnia and have patients use it for more than 365 days, since melatonin, at least in the U.S., is not indicated for the treatment of insomnia. In the U.S., melatonin can be taken as an over-the-counter supplement and people should be aware that it should not be taken chronically without a proper indication," Melatonin use was identified only when it appeared in electronic medical records. That means people in the U.S. or other countries who bought melatonin over the counter without having it entered into their medical records could have been incorrectly classified as nonusers. As a result, the melatonin and nonmelatonin groups may not perfectly reflect who was actually taking the supplement. There was another complication involving hospitalizations. The number of heart failure-related hospitalizations was higher than the number of newly diagnosed heart failure cases because hospitals may enter a variety of related diagnostic codes. Those records do not always include a code specifically identifying a new heart failure diagnosis. Researchers also did not have information about how severe each participant's insomnia was or whether participants had other psychiatric disorders. Those missing factors are important because people with more severe insomnia, depression, anxiety, or other conditions may be more likely to use melatonin and could independently have a different cardiovascular risk. "Worse insomnia, depression/anxiety, or the use of other sleep-enhancing medicines might be linked to both melatonin use and heart risk," Nnadi said. "Also, while the association we found raises safety concerns about the widely used supplement, our study cannot prove a direct cause-and-effect relationship. This means more research is needed to test melatonin's safety for the heart."

More than two-thirds of new drugs approved by FDA in 2024 were based on a single study More than two-thirds of new drugs approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in 2024 were sanctioned based on findings from a single study, according to a new analysis that found that the number of studies used to grant approval has steadily declined since 2016. The findings, published this week in PLOS One, also show a sharp rise in industry-sponsored studies, a decrease in studies sponsored by the National Institutes of Health (NIH), and delays in reporting study results to the public. The decline in the number of studies coincided with implementation of the 21st Century Cures Act, which was signed into law in 2016 to accelerate the development of new medical products and drugs. Although the FDA could already approve a drug based on the strength of one well-designed trial, the law gave the agency greater flexibility to consider single trials. For the study, researchers led by a team from Stanford University analyzed 6,763 studies associated with new FDA drug approvals from January 1, 2016, through December 31, 2024, cataloging them based on the number of studies relied on for each approval, study sponsor, and the timing between study completion and public reporting of results. In 2016, the mean number of studies supporting an approval was 3.41. That number fell to 1.50 in 2022 and 1.39 in 2024. (The mean number of studies per approval in 2023 was 2.49, due to a single outlier based on nine trials. Excluding the outlier, the mean number for 2023 was 1.85.) This downward trend was also evident in the proportion of approvals supported by multiple studies. In 2016, 59.1% of novel drugs were approved based on three or more trials. By 2024, that figure had fallen to 5.6%. That same year, 69.4% of medical products were approved based on a single study. “Replication is a cornerstone of the scientific method,” senior author and Adjunct Professor of Medicine at Stanford University Robert Kaplan, PhD, says in a PLOS news release. “The growing practice of approving medications on the basis of a single trial is concerning, as it allows products to reach the market without independent confirmation of the findings.” In 2016, industry-funded studies accounted for 44.6% of the research associated with approvals, compared with 80.4% in 2024. Studies sponsored by the NIH or other government sources represented less than 3% of total study funding in most years during this period. The researchers also assessed the substantial delays in reporting study results to the public. The findings show that the average number of days between a study’s completion date and the results being made public rose from 682 in 2016 to 728 in 2023, with considerable variability in between. “While there were periods of both extension and reduction in the time taken to post results, the average time remained consistently above one year for studies with available results throughout the observed years,” write the researchers. As an observational study, the findings cannot show that the 21st Century Cures Act caused the decline. Shifts in the types of drugs being developed, evolving trial design standards, and changes in the broader drug development ecosystem may have contributed, the researchers note.

COVID-19 may trigger the same immune pathway as lupus -The immune system is the body’s most important defense against disease. It does its essential work by producing proteins called antibodies, which scour the body for disease-causing bacteria, viruses, and other pathogens. But sometimes the immune system malfunctions and produces autoantibodies (Abs), proteins that mistakenly target the body’s own tissues instead of finding and destroying illness-causing invaders. This is the case in some COVID-infected people, in whom autoantibodies are linked to severe illness, persistent symptoms, and an increased risk of new-onset autoimmune disease.This sideways immune response has long been recognized in COVID-19, but what’s been unclear is how this errant process gets set in motion. Now, a new study in Immunity sheds light on the immune cells responsible for producing autoantibodies in COVID-infected people and helps explain the molecular process that drives them.“Our goal was to understand why some people produce autoantibodies after SARS-CoV-2 infection while others do not,” says Jim Heath, PhD, senior author and president of the Institute for Systems Biology (ISB) in Seattle, in an ISB news release. “By combining multiple layers of biological data, we were able to pinpoint the immune cells responsible and identify the regulatory mechanisms that distinguish them.”

Long COVID not linked to preterm birth but may be to pregnancy-related high blood pressure disorders - A study published last week in Obstetrics & Gynecology found no significant link between long COVID and preterm birth or several other adverse pregnancy outcomes but did uncover an association with hypertensive disorders of pregnancy. Researchers from University of Utah Heath led the analysis of data on female COVID-19 survivors enrolled in the Researching COVID to Enhance Recovery (RECOVER) study from October 2021 to January 2024. Participants had completed at least one symptom survey and were classified as having likely or suspected long COVID before or during pregnancy. The primary outcome was preterm birth (before 37 weeks’ gestation), and secondary outcomes were hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, cesarean delivery, neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) admission, and small-for-gestational-age birth weight (below the 10th percentile). Of 603 participants, 19.6% likely had long COVID before or during pregnancy. These women were more likely to have certain adverse social determinants of health (difficulty covering expenses and paying bills, food insecurity, cost-related missed care, medical discrimination) and higher pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI) than those with suspected long COVID. The primary treatment-effect analysis identified no link between likely long COVID and preterm delivery (adjusted outcome rate, 8.1% exposed vs 9.6% unexposed; absolute risk reduction [ARR], 0.82) or secondary outcomes. In the treated sensitivity analyses, probable long COVID was similarly not tied to preterm delivery (ARR, 1.11) but was associated with an increased risk of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (adjusted outcome rate, 39.0% exposed vs 25.9% unexposed; ARR, 1.51) but not with other secondary outcomes. “A classification of likely Long COVID was not significantly associated with preterm birth or several other adverse pregnancy outcomes,” the study authors wrote. “However, the association with hypertensive disorders of pregnancy in the average treatment effect among the treated analysis highlights the need for further research.”

Regular exercise before COVID infection linked to better daily function 2 years later -People who exercised regularly before contracting COVID-19 were less likely to have trouble performing everyday tasks two years later, according to a new study published in BMC Public Health. After having COVID, some people report ongoing fatigue, muscle weakness, and difficulty performing everyday tasks. To assess if being physically active before infection is associated with less disability post-infection, researchers led by a team from the Federal University of Pelotas in Brazil analyzed data from adults who had symptomatic, laboratory-confirmed COVID from December 2020 through March 2021. For the study, physical activity was defined as exercising at least 150 minutes a week. Participants who reported exercising at least that much before infection were classified as physically active. Researchers assessed functional ability six and 24 months after infection by asking participants whether they needed help performing tasks such as shopping, preparing meals, cleaning, handling small objects, and taking medications. The six-month assessment included 2,919 adults, and the two-year assessment included 1,927. At six months, 8.4% reported some difficulty completing daily tasks. That proportion climbed to 31.6% at the two-year mark. After accounting for age, sex, race, income, and body mass index, the researchers determined that those who met physical activity recommendations before infection had a 20% lower rate of functional disability than those who didn’t two years later. While the researchers caution that physical activity and functional ability were self-reported, and an observational study can’t prove that exercise helped mediate disability, they hypothesize that exercise may improve lung capacity, support immune regulation, and reduce inflammation, which could improve COVID-related outcomes. “These findings suggest that pre-infection [physical activity] may be associated with better long-term functional outcomes after COVID-19,” the authors conclude. “Therefore, promoting [physical activity] as part of public health strategies may be a crucial approach for improving functional recovery and reducing the prolonged effects associated with COVID-19.”

Longer Paxlovid treatment shows no benefit for long-COVID symptoms, study suggests - Taking the antiviral drug Paxlovid (nirmatrelvir–ritonavir) for up to 25 days did not improve cognitive issues, autonomic symptoms like dizziness and shortness of breath, or exercise intolerance in adults with long COVID, according to a US randomized controlled trial published yesterday in The Lancet Infectious Diseases. A leading theory about how the condition called long COVID—typically COVID-related symptoms for three months or more—develops is viral persistence, or the continued presence of SARS-CoV-2 in the body after initial infection. For the phase 2 RECOVER-VITAL trial, researchers led by a team at Mass General Brigham (MGB) tested whether an extended course of Paxlovid could target lingering SARS-CoV-2 in the body. Previous research had showed no benefit of taking Paxlovid for up to 15 days, but researchers wondered about longer regimens. “This study contributes important findings to the science of studying long COVID and viral persistence,” says lead author Lindsey Baden, MD, in an MGB news release.. “Unfortunately, treating viral persistence with this antiviral medication did not show evidence of clinical benefit.” The double-blind study included 959 adults with long-COVID symptoms from 69 medical centers in 27 states. Participants were classified into one of three groups based on symptoms—cognitive dysfunction, autonomic symptoms, and exercise intolerance—with roughly 330 in each group. Long COVID was defined as symptoms lasting for at least 12 weeks. Participants were randomly assigned to receive Paxlovid for 25 days, Paxlovid for 15 days followed by 10 days of a placebo, ritonavir plus a placebo for 25 days. Across all three symptom groups, a significant number of participants improved, especially when measured by self-assessment questionnaires. This prompted caution from the authors: While the Hawthorne effect, or the psychological phenomenon in which people change or improve because they know they are being observed, is common in clinical trials, “the proportion improving in RECOVER-VITAL exceeded assumptions used for initial sample size calculations, perhaps limiting the possibility of detecting effect with the final sample size.” The researchers also note that the high rate of reported improvement wasn’t likely caused by the low-dose ritonavir administered in each group, because previous research has suggested “no meaningful biological activity of ritonavir against SARS-CoV-2, especially when used at a low dose.” Unfortunately, treating viral persistence with this antiviral medication did not show evidence of clinical benefit. Nevertheless, they continue, “the high proportion improving in the placebo–ritonavir group cautions against overinterpretation of uncontrolled observations and highlights the need for placebo control in studies of long COVID to better define therapeutic improvement.”

Antiviral drug remdesivir may cut risk of death in adults with severe COVID and kidney or liver disease Early use of the intravenous antiviral drug remdesivir (RDV) may reduce the risk of death by 28 days in adults with kidney or liver disease hospitalized for COVID-19, scientists from the University of Illinois and drug maker Gilead Sciences report today in Clinical Infectious Diseases. The researchers analyzed medical claims and hospital cost data for early RDV initiation among US adults diagnosed as having kidney or liver disease hospitalized for COVID-19 from 2021 to 2025. The patients, and controls who didn’t receive RDV, were stratified by supplemental oxygen use in the first two days after admission. In total, 22,378 patients (11,189 each of RDV recipients and controls) had kidney disease, and 5,026 patients (2,513 per group) had liver disease. The kidney cohort included patients with kidney disease who required renal replacement therapy in the year before RDV initiation. The liver cohort was made up of patients with conditions such as liver injury, cirrhosis, liver failure, and noninfectious hepatitis. The risk of 28-day all-cause in-hospital death was lower among RDV recipients in both the kidney cohort (25% lower) and liver cohort (24% lower) than among controls. Nearly 70% of all patients in each cohort needed supplemental oxygen. The risk of death was 25% and 26% lower with early RDV use among kidney and liver patients who received supplemental oxygen and 49% lower in liver patients who didn’t receive oxygen. The decrease in kidney patients who didn’t receive oxygen wasn’t statistically significant. “Since RDV is metabolized primarily through the liver, hepatic [liver] laboratory testing is recommended before and during RDV treatment,” the researchers wrote. “Nevertheless, the current study provides additional evidence to support the use of RDV to treat COVID-19 in patients with both renal [kidney] comorbidities and hepatic comorbidities.”

RFK Jr. is investigating whether troops died of Covid vaccine, Army doctor says – - An Army doctor told a federal court in Virginia she’s working with Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to probe whether troops died from Covid-19 vaccines after President Joe Biden mandated the shots for service members in 2021.In an Aug. 14 deposition obtained by POLITICO, Theresa Long said Hegseth detailed her to be Kennedy’s senior medical military adviser. Her role at HHS has not been previously reported. Kennedy, a longtime vaccine safety skeptic, has hired others who share his skepticism to investigate vaccine injuries and to probe any links between vaccines and rising rates of autism. Studies done over decades have not found a link.  Kennedy’s taken particular aim at Covid vaccines — which he once described as the “most deadly vaccines in history” — by ending a government recommendation that most Americans get them annually. Vaccine safety experts say Kennedy’s statement is false and that it has contributed to some Americans’ decision to forgo vaccination that could reduce the severity of the disease.Groups representing doctors Wednesday urged Americans to get the shots. Covid vaccine uptake rates among adults have continued to drop during Donald Trump’s presidency, from the low-20s when he took over to to high teens. As part of her role, Long said she’s looking into whether 2,544 unverified deaths among service members reported to HHS’ Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System — or VAERS — were caused by Covid vaccines. Long, who is board certified in aerospace medicine and has a master’s in public health, told the court she hoped to be able to finish her research on the potential vaccine complications “within a year.” HHS and Long did not respond to requests for comment on her work at the department. Asked by POLITICO about Long’s role, the Defense Department said it doesn’t “have anything to announce at this time,” and referred to a May statement announcing its Covid-19 Reinstatement and Reconciliation Task Force, which helps troops who left the military due to their refusal to be vaccinated return if they want to. The Defense Department discharged nearly 9,000 service members for refusing Covid vaccines before Congress ordered the DOD to end the rule in a 2022 law. “The Department continues to right the wrongs of the past and to restore confidence in, and honor to, our fighting force,” the statement said. Kennedy has argued that requiring service members to receive the Covid vaccine violated their rights.

Rotavirus vaccine shows strong global results in preschoolers | CIDRAP  -- A new study in The Lancet Child & Adolescent Health of children younger than 5 years old seeking care for acute gastroenteritis at hospitals or emergency departments in one of 22 countries from July 1, 2007, to Aug 24, 2023, shows the rotavirus vaccine offered strong protection against acute gastrointestinal illness and death. Rotavirus accounts for an estimated 25% of diarrhea deaths in children under 5 globally. Yet despite a vaccine being widely available for 20 years, the International Vaccine Access Center estimates that 70 million infants remained unprotected in 2024.The study used databases to include 27,252 children younger than 5 years enrolled from 22 countries. In total, 183 all-cause acute gastroenteritis deaths and 25 rotavirus-positive deaths were reported, the authors said.Among children aged at least 3 months who had received any routine vaccines, receiving at least one dose of a rotavirus vaccine had an adjusted vaccine effectiveness of 75.8% against rotavirus-positive acute gastroenteritis mortality, and 20.8% against all-cause acute gastroenteritis mortality.“This study is the first to calculate rotavirus vaccine effectiveness against rotavirus-positive acute gastroenteritis mortality, which we did by combining acute gastroenteritis surveillance and rotavirus vaccine effectiveness and impact studies from 16 countries,” the authors wrote.In an accompanying commentary, Daniel Hungerford, PhD, and Latif Ndeketa, MD, PhD, both of the University of Liverpool, wrote, “These findings provide the strongest multicountry evidence to date that rotavirus vaccines substantially reduce rotavirus-associated diarrhoea mortality in high-burden settings.”

HPV infection may confer slightly higher risk of new-onset heart disease and death Women infected with human papillomavirus (HPV) are at higher risk for new-onset cardiovascular disease (CVD) and death than their uninfected peers, a Karolinska Institutet–led research team suggests. For the observational study, published yesterday in PLOS Medicine, the researchers compared the CVD diagnoses of 497,445 HPV-infected women in Swedish national registries with those of roughly 2.5 million uninfected controls. They also compared CVD status among 143,787 infected women and their 174,637 unexposed full siblings. The authors note that most previous observational research was limited to specific populations and didn’t adequately consider familial factors. HPV infection is well known to cause cervical cancer, but emerging evidence suggests that it may also contribute to CVD. New-onset CVD was identified in 28,793 and 128,373 HPV-infected and uninfected women, respectively, for respective incidences of 8.27 and 7.93 per 1,000 person-years. In total, 1,221 and 4,941 women with and without HPV infection died of CVD, for respective death rates of 33.7 and 29.4 per 100,000 person-years. The risks of CVD and death were greatest within the first year of follow-up, then waned. The risk of new-onset CVD was 7% higher in HPV-infected women than in their uninfected counterparts, for an absolute rate difference of 0.53 cases per 1,000 person-years (population-attributable fraction, 1.16%). The risk of death was 25% higher in infected women than in unexposed women, for an absolute rate difference of 6.71 cases per 100,000 person-years (population-attributable fraction, 4.12%). In the first year of follow-up, the risks of incident CVD and related death were 43% and 86% higher, respectively, in women diagnosed as having HPV. But thereafter, the excess risk fell to 2% for new-onset CVD and 21% for related death. In the sibling comparison, HPV-infected women had a 5% greater risk of incident CVD and a 25% higher risk of death than their uninfected siblings. “The findings suggested that clinicians should be aware of a slightly elevated CVD risk in women with HPV, especially during the first year following an infection,” the authors concluded. “However, given the small absolute difference, women should not be unduly concerned.”

Conflicting information continues in measles-associated death of Pennsylvania newborn - Dueling narratives on whether measles was at fault for the death of a newborn in Pennsylvania intensified over the weekend. The baby died of a lacerated spleen, according to the coroner in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, the epicenter of the largest current measles outbreak in the United States. But there's disagreement on whether a measles infection acquired before birth caused the infant's organ to become inflamed, resulting in the fatal injury.   Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, a Democrat, maintains the baby wouldn't have died if the mother had been vaccinated and therefore protected from measles. The state's health secretary, Debra Bogen, MD, said on X that she "thoroughly reviewed the case investigation information."  But Lancaster County Coroner Stephen Diamantoni, MD, told NBC affiliate WGAL that, according to his office's forensic pathologist, measles was not a factor, as the newborn's spleen was "neither enlarged nor inflamed." "There are many different types of forces that can cause laceration of the spleen," said Diamantoni. "It's difficult to say exactly what it is. And that's one of the reasons we're continuing to investigate to determine how and why that occurred." Diamantoni, a Republican who was first elected as county coroner in 2008, shared a similar analysis with The Atlantic, telling the magazine in a story that ran yesterday that he is "very in favor of immunization."However, that same Atlantic article reports that a Lancaster County mother delivered a stillborn boy after suffering a severe measles illness. The woman was reportedly unvaccinated and assumed that the loss of her son was related to her recent infection."She struggled to hold down food and fluids," according to the Atlantic. "For days, she could speak only in a whisper. On August 13, she was taken to a clinic to get an IV for dehydration. The next day, she went into labor."  Splenic ruptures are extremely rare in neonates, explained Paul Offit, MD, a nationally recognized infectious disease expert at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia. In his Substack, Offit acknowledged that Diamantoni is in a difficult position and therefore his caution is warranted. But he said that it's hard to know if a spleen was enlarged once it ruptures. "Measles can cause only mild or moderate enlargement of the spleen but still be vulnerable to splenic rupture," wrote Offit. "Also, a fragile splenic capsule can be difficult to determine post-mortem." He added that other reasons a newborn's spleen might be fragile enough to rupture include "infections like CMV [cytomegalovirus] and rubella, hemolytic disorders, or certain inborn errors of metabolism," and that unless one of these issues was also present, the "only obvious cause left would be measles."Meanwhile, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is not including the newborn, as well as one other measles-associated death reported last week by the Pennsylvania Department of Health, in its tally of annual measles fatalities."At this time, available information does not establish whether measles caused or contributed to the deaths or whether the individuals died from other causes while infected with measles," said the agency in its weekly online update. "CDC will update the national count as additional information becomes available."Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has accused Pennsylvania of not cooperating with the CDC. Shapiro, in turn, blames the state's outbreak on Kennedy's anti-vaccine policies and rhetoric.“There's real-life consequences for spreading misinformation," said the governor during a press conference last week.  But Shapiro is being criticized by some medical experts, who are horrified by the growing measles crisis, for politicizing the tragedy of two measles-associated deaths. They also say Shapiro's lack of transparency has given Kennedy an opening to further spread misinformation. The state has not released any additional information about the two deaths.The CDC usually provides a weekly update on measles cases on Friday at noon, Eastern Time. But this week's report was delayed until Sunday, when an additional 126 confirmed infections were reported, bringing the 2026 total to 2,903 across 45 states. There were 2,289 confirmed measles cases in all of 2025.  However, discrepancies exist between what some states' data show and what the CDC is reporting. The CDC last updated its state data on August 21, listing Pennsylvania's year-to-date total as 371 cases while the state's health department reported on Monday that the total is 497. Pennsylvania does not note whether any cases included in its total are probable or if all are confirmed.Also on Friday, Wisconsin reported that its year-to-date total for measles was now at 94 confirmed cases, and 6 probable, but the CDC's count for the state is 38.In general, the number of measles cases is believed to be vastly underreported, in part because some communities experiencing the most severe outbreaks have less contact with public health agencies. Roughly 1 to 3 out of every 1,000 unvaccinated people who are infected with measles will die, "even with the best care," according to the National Foundation of Infectious Disease. Therefore, if the two measles-associated deaths reported in Pennsylvania are confirmed to have been caused, at least in part, by measles, this would indicate that the outbreak is far greater than what the current data show.

Lancaster County coroner says measles caused second infant death as US cases soar past 3,100 - Today in Pennsylvania, Lancaster County Coroner Stephen Diamantoni, MD, confirmed that the county’s second measles infant death, which he initially called “measles associated,” was caused by the highly contagious virus. The county is the site of a rapidly growing measles outbreak.Earlier this week, Diamantoni confirmed that measles was detected in a child who had died a few weeks ago. When the Pennsylvania Department of Health confirmed two measles-related deaths last week, it provided little information on the patients, including their ages.  Diamantoni has said that the death of the first infant in Lancaster County was not from measles; he attributed it to a ruptured spleen. Measles virus was detected in the boy’s body. He was born to a measles-infected mother on August 14 and died shortly after birth.The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) currently does not include either death in its 2026 measles fatality count.At a press briefing today, Diamantoni said the second death involved an Amish girl who was born in July and died on August 18. She had a rare genetic neurologic disorder called Amish lethal microcephaly characterized by abnormally small head size and an underdeveloped brain. She was immediately admitted to palliative care at a hospital. It’s unknown whether the infant was infected with measles before or after birth.Microcephaly occurs in about one of every 500 births in the Amish population but is very rare outside of that community, Diamantoni said. “Those children are sick from birth and actually are placed on palliative care from the time of birth,” he said. “They typically only live 5 or 6 months of age and the majority of those children die as a result of a respiratory infection of any kind, because their brain is very small and they don’t have the capacity to fight those infections well.”Diamantoni said he didn’t know whether this was the second measles-related death reported by Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Pennsylvania Secretary of Health Debra Bogen, MD, during a press briefing on August 25. The case wasn’t initially reported to Diamantoni’s office; rather, it was handled by the Clinic for Special Children in Leacock Township. On August 26, US Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suggested that the deaths were fabricated.  “I don’t want to go into details in terms of how we were able to ascertain that information, but I mean, certainly the providers there did not think that it was a case that needed to be referred to the coroner’s office because many of these children end up dying of respiratory infections of different types, and the death was not unexpected," Diamantoni said.

Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak becomes largest on record with 5 794 cases and 2 786 deaths, DRC - Youtube videos --The Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has become the largest Ebola outbreak ever recorded in the country, with 5 794 confirmed cases and 2 786 deaths reported as of August 26, 2026. Cases have reached 60 health zones across six provinces as sustained transmission continues, according to the World Health Organization. The Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo had grown to 5 794 confirmed cases and 2 786 deaths as of August 26. It is the largest Ebola outbreak recorded in the country, regardless of Ebola virus species, and sustained transmission now spans 60 health zones across six provinces, up from 54 health zones in the previous update. The crude case fatality ratio stood at 48.1%, while 1 293 patients had recovered. The previous update, published on August 14, reflected data through August 12. Since then, the reported total has risen by 1 129 confirmed cases and 602 deaths. When The Watchers last reported on the outbreak on July 14, the latest national figures stood at 1 926 confirmed cases and 702 deaths across five provinces. The total has since increased by 3 868 cases and 2 084 deaths, while the outbreak has spread into a sixth province. Ituri remains the center of transmission, with 4 802 confirmed cases recorded since the outbreak began. North Kivu is the second-most affected province, with 775 cases and the outbreak’s highest provincial case fatality ratio at 68%; the reasons for the elevated ratio remain under investigation. Of the 60 affected health zones, 28 are in Ituri, 15 in North Kivu, seven in Tshopo, six in Haut-Uélé, three in Bas-Uélé and one in South Kivu. Six additional health zones reported confirmed cases between the August 14 and August 28 updates. They were Ganga and Viadana in Bas-Uélé; Biena, Manguredjipa and Mutwanga in North Kivu; and Tshopo health zone in Tshopo Province. Youtube video Bas-Uélé began reporting cases on August 12, becoming the sixth province affected during the current outbreak. During the 24 hours ending August 26, authorities reported 81 new confirmed cases across 19 health zones in Ituri, North Kivu, Haut-Uélé and Tshopo. Response teams followed up 22 091 of the 26 850 contacts requiring monitoring on August 26, equivalent to 82.3%. The size of the contact list reflects the scale of potential exposure within affected communities. Insecurity and displacement continue to restrict access to healthcare and make surveillance, case investigations and contact follow-up more difficult. The International Health Regulations Emergency Committee met for a second time on August 18 and advised that the epidemic continued to meet the criteria for a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. The designation was first made on May 17. The WHO Director-General accepted the Committee’s advice and determined that the outbreak did not meet the criteria for a pandemic emergency. Youtube video An assessment of the outbreak’s growth between May 17 and August 12 produced a case-based effective reproductive number, or Rt, of 1.24, corresponding to a doubling time of 52 days. Because low case detection probably means that this estimate understates transmission, mortality data were also examined. The mortality-based analysis produced an estimated Rt of 1.55 and a doubling time of 21 days. Combining several analytical methods suggested that the epidemic’s actual size could be three to four times that captured through surveillance. That figure is a model-based estimate, not a confirmed case count. The epidemic’s growth rate remained classified as very high as of August 12. The August 14 risk reassessment rated the risk within the DRC as very high and the risk to countries sharing land borders with the DRC as high. Risk for the rest of the African Region and at the global level remained low. The assessment considered continued transmission and geographic expansion, population mobility, conflict and insecurity, laboratory constraints and the absence of a licensed vaccine or specific antiviral treatment for Bundibugyo virus disease.

Ebola death toll approaches 3,000, as case-fatality rate hovers around 50% - The Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is now at 6,041 cases and 2,911 deaths, as the Bundibugyo strain has taken hold in North Kivu province. According to the most recent update from the World Health Organization (WHO), the outbreak now has a crude case fatality ratio (CFR) of 48.1%, or nearly half. “The crude case fatality ratio of 48% underscores the severity of the disease and ongoing challenges related to timely case detection, access to and quality of clinical care, and effective interruption of viral transmission,” the WHO said. “Delays in recognizing cases increase the likelihood of onward transmission within households, communities and healthcare facilities.”  In other developments, Doctors Without Borders (MSF) is opening a new Ebola Treatment Center in Beni to strengthen response in North Kivu. Though Ituri and North Kivu have the most cases, the outbreak is now in six provinces, including South Kivu, Haut-Uélé, Bas-Uélé and Tshopo. “Ebola disease is terrifying, and many people refrain from seeking healthcare out of fear to catch the virus in the health facilities or due to false rumours about the care that is provided there. This means that patients who have diseases like malaria, which is the leading cause of death in the country, or women and girls who are pregnant, might not get the care they need,” MSF said in a press release. “This risks causing more people getting sick or dying from other causes than Ebola disease. Therefore, working alongside local communities, MSF is also strengthening primary healthcare services in the affected areas.”

Quick takes: Schools resume in DR Congo; sprouts, mangos recalled; 2 H9N2 avian flu cases in China | CIDRAP

• Schools in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) are back in session amid the growing Ebola outbreak, though administrators are reporting low attendance in hotspots such as Ituri province. Teacher unions in that province called for delaying the start of the school year, but government officials said they were taking measures to make classrooms safer. The latest government numbers show 2,950 deaths among 6,100 cases, as officials struggle to control the outbreak, which is caused by the Bundibugyo strain and is now the largest outbreak in DRC history.
• Everything Sprouts has expanded its recall of Robust Radish Sprout Mix because it could have been cross-contaminated with Shiga toxin–producing Escherichia coli (STEC) or Salmonella from the company’s recalled alfalfa sprouts, according to a new notice from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The FDA also announced that Panorama Produce is recalling 302 boxes of size nine mangoes because they may be contaminated with Salmonella. No illnesses have been reported in association with this contamination, but he fruit was sold in Walmart stores in Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania from August 10 to 21.
• In its most recent updates, the World Health Organization (WHO) has noted two recent human H9N2 avian flu cases on mainland China in children exposed to birds at live poultry markets. The first patient is a boy under 5 years of age from Anhui Province whose symptoms began on August 3. The boy was hospitalized and later discharged. The second case was reported between August 21 and 27 in Beijing province. No other details were given. Since 2015, 179 cases of human infection with H9N2, including two deaths (both in people with underlying conditions), have been reported to the WHO in the Western Pacific Region. Of those cases, 176 were from China, two were from Taiwan, and one was from Vietnam.

Ebola kills 3,000 in DR Congo as control efforts aren’t measuring up | CIDRAP - --The Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has now killed 3,007 people out of 6,186 confirmed cases, according to the country’s ministry of health. Instead of slowing down, transmission has picked up in the past two weeks, with the virus further spreading in North Kivu province. A total of six provinces in the DRC now have confirmed cases of the Bundibugyo strain of the virus.Scientists from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), in a new paper in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, said the DRC’s efforts to control the virus “remained below established response targets.” On all five critical public health response indicators (case detection alerts, contact tracing, lab testing, isolation of infected people, and safe and dignified burials) the DRC is falling behind, the CDC said.“Compared with previous Ebola outbreaks, the increase in cases in DRC is unprecedented, with approximately 5,000 cases in 100 days,” the report said. It assessed cases through August 21.  Most crucially, almost all new cases are being reported outside of known transmission chains. The percentage of confirmed new cases previously identified as known contacts was 15% to 20%, the authors said, and the target in an Ebola outbreak response is above 90%.The second largest issue was case contact identification, which is averaging 10.6 per confirmed case, instead of an ideal of 20 or more.Other metrics are also showing significant delays. Laboratory testing was performed for 72% of validated alerts (target, >90%), indicating that a substantial number of suspected cases remain untested, the authors said.“Substantial improvements in established outbreak control measures are crucial to rapidly detect and diagnose cases and isolate and provide treatment for infected persons, prevent funeral-associated transmission to prevent additional spread, and control this rapidly expanding outbreak,” the authors concluded.

Ebola case counts reach 6,250 in DR Congo outbreak -The latest case counts in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) are 6,250 cases and 3,039 deaths, as the outbreak continues. Transmission activity is still mainly in North Kivu province. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), researchers have started to use anonymized phone data used to track population movements in an effort to predict where outbreak clusters may occur. "Population movements have always been a factor in outbreaks, but they are particularly important in the current epidemic," Olivier Le Polain, ​head of epidemiology and analytics for response at the WHO Health Emergencies Programme, told Reuters. Population movements have always been a factor in outbreaks, but they are particularly important in the current epidemic. The approach has never been used in an Ebola outbreak before, but officials are struggling to contain or slow the spread of the deadly virus in the fourth month of the outbreak. Because the outbreak area is home to mining operations with transient workers and displaced people, the cell phone data could help predict where help is needed.

Murky waters: Freshwater swimming tied to higher risk of skin rashes and stomach trouble   --Jumping in a cold lake on a hot day is one of summer’s many pleasures, but swimming in lakes and rivers may increase the risk of gastrointestinal (GI) illness and skin ailments. That’s according to a new study that compared the outcomes of those who swam in a lake or river for 10 minutes with those who stood on the shore. The findings of the large randomized controlled trial, published yesterday in the International Journal of Hygiene and Environmental Health, showed that swimmers were more than twice as likely to suffer skin ailments, like rashes and itching, compared with those who stayed dry. The data also showed that as levels of Escherichia coli (E coli) and other viruses in the water rose, so did swimmers' risk of stomach troubles. “This work provides some of the strongest evidence yet that contamination in freshwater recreational sites can translate into real-world illness among bathers,” Paul Hunter, MD, study author and professor in medicine at the University of East Anglia, in a news release.For the study, a team led by researchers from University of East Anglia examined data from 2,368 participants, roughly half of whom were randomized to swim at one of four freshwater swimming areas in Hungary and the other half to stay on the shore and not make contact with the water. The demographic and behavioral characteristics of the participants were well-balanced between the groups and there were no statistically significant differences in prior illnesses. Water samples collected during the trial were tested for E coli, intestinal enterococci, and somatic coliphages—viruses that can indicate fecal contamination in the water. After one week, GI illness was reported in 24 swimmers (2.12%) and 24 non-swimmers (1.94%), making swimming itself not significantly associated with GI issues. But among swimmers, the risk rose alongside concentrations of E coli and somatic coliphages in the water. After adjustment for age, recent GI illness, and behavioral factors, each one-unit increase in E coli concentration was associated with a 77% increase in the risk of GI illness (relative risk [RR]: 1.77). An increase in somatic coliphage concentration was associated with a 48% increase in risk (RR: 1.48).Swimmers were more than twice as likely as non-swimmers to report a skin ailment like rash or itching (RR: 2.17). None of the three microbial indicators, however, was significantly associated with skin symptoms. “This could be due to exposure to naturally occurring organisms not linked to sewage pollution,” Hunter says. “Agricultural or industrial contaminants may also play a role.” Respiratory, ear, and eye infections were uncommon, with only 9, 13, and 13 cases, respectively. While the current findings apply to freshwater sites in Hungary, they can be interpreted more broadly, according to Hunter.  “Our results were consistent across the four Hungarian study sites, which differed in water quality and water types. Our results were also consistent with a previous study in Germany,” he says. “So overall, this suggests that the relationships that we have identified are generalisable and likely applicable in UK waters.” Open-air swimming has surged in popularity in the UK in recent years.  Overall, the findings support the use of E coli concentrations to measure the risk of GI illness in freshwater and suggest that somatic coliphages may be useful markers of water quality, indicating that monitoring of freshwater swimming areas is important for public health.

Quick takes: Cyclosporiasis in Michigan, Aedes mosquitoes in the UK, new NYC Legionnaires measures | CIDRAP

• Health officials in Michigan this week added 208 more cyclosporiasis cases this week, bringing the state’s outbreak total to 14,718 cases. As of yesterday, 366 case-patients have reported hospitalization in the cyclospora outbreak, which is linked to iceberg lettuce sourced from Mexico and served at Taco Bell restaurants, and two deaths have been identified. Nationally, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has received reports of 18,445 cyclosporiasis cases and 990 hospitalizations.
• The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) says mosquitoes capable of spreading Zika, dengue, and chikungunya virus have been found breeding at residential properties in east London. It’s the fourth time the Aedes aegypti mosquito has been detected in the United Kingdom but the first identification of larvae. The UKHSA says control measures have been implemented to destroy the larvae and that the area will continue to be monitored closely. “Despite evidence of breeding in this local area and the recent heatwaves, the species is not established in the UK and cannot survive long-term in the typical UK climate, which is too cold overall,” Jolyon Medlock, PhD, UKHSA’s head of medical entomology and zoonoses ecology, said in a news release.
• On the heels of a cluster of cases on New York City’s Upper East Side, the New York City Health Department yesterday announced new measures to strengthen the city’s response to Legionnaires disease. The cluster of cases of the pneumonia-like illness, which sickened 94 people and killed 11, was caused by Legionella bacteria in cooling towers in the area. The measures include identifying potentially unregistered cooling towers, enhancing public visibility and transparency around cooling tower regulations, and exploring new and faster testing methods to reduce the time it takes to test and confirm positive results. “New York City already has some of the most rigorous cooling tower laws and regulations in the country, but rigorous standards only matter if we are constantly working to make them stronger,” New York City Health Commissioner Alister Martin, MD, MPP, said in a press release.

Quick takes: Infant botulism, New World screwworm preventative, ‘airport malaria’ in Germany, new polio cases in Africa | CIDRAP

• The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention yesterday declared the outbreak of infant botulism linked to powdered formula over. Epidemiologic, traceback, and laboratory data indicate the cause of the outbreak, which led to four infant hospitalizations in three states, was contaminated Nara Organics Whole Milk Organic Infant Formula. No new cases have been reported since July 3. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) says data indicate the milk used in the formula came from the same supplier implicated in a 2025 infant botulism outbreak linked to infant powdered formula.
• The FDA announced yesterday that it has issued an emergency use authorization for Bimectin, an injectable form of ivermectin, for the prevention of New World screwworm (NWS) infestations in cattle. The FDA says all available scientific data suggest Bimectin—when administered within 24 hours of birth, at the time of castration, or at the appearance of a wound—may be effective at preventing NWS myasis. There have been 46 confirmed detections of NWS in cattle and sheep in Texas since June 3, and one case in a dog in New Mexico.
• Two airport workers in Germany have died after contracting malaria from an Anopheles mosquito transported by plane, and four others have been hospitalized, German health officials said this week. Public Health Authority Frankfurt says it’s investigating the incident, and that mosquito traps have been set up at Frankfurt Airport to monitor for possible occurrences of disease-carrying mosquitoes. Frankfurt Airport previously experienced cases of ‘airport malaria’ in 2022. “For the residents of Frankfurt, the risk is considered to be very, very low,” officials said in a statement.
• The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Nigeria reported new cases of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) this week, according to an update from the Global Polio Eradication Initiative. DRC reported five cVDPV2 cases with paralysis onset in May and July, bringing its 2026 total to 37 cases. Nigeria reported two cases with paralysis onset in July, bringing its total this year to 34 cases.

Scientists in China discover new tick-borne virus that causes flu-like illness -  Scientists in China have identified a novel tick-borne virus that causes an influenza-like illness characterized by fever, fatigue, gastrointestinal (GI) symptoms, and abnormal lab findings.The team, led by researchers from the State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity in Beijing, has designated the new orthonairovirus as the Asian longhorned tick nairovirus (ALTNV). Their discovery, published yesterday in the New England Journal of Medicine, stemmed from a probe into why 30% of patients with signs and symptoms of infection with Dabie bandavirus (DBV) test negative for the tick-borne hemorrhagic fever.DBV disease, which causes severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS), is found throughout Asia and has a case-fatality rate of 10% to 30%. Thrombocytopenia is a low platelet count. The World Health Organization lists DBV as a priority for research.The team obtained samples from patients bitten by ticks at sentinel hospitals in parts of China where tick-borne viruses circulate. The researchers identified the new virus through RNA sequencing and viral isolation.Phylogenomic analyses identified ALTNV as an orthonairovirus in the family Nairoviridae that shared under 80% of the amino acids in other species in the genus. Inoculation of cells with ALTNV RNA–positive human serum resulted in growth of a virus identified via immunofluorescence of viral antigen as ALTNV. Characteristics of orthonairoviruses were also seen on electron microscopy, and viral replication was detected in multiple cell lines.Of all 3,163 patients tested, 10.4% were positive for ALTNV based on detection of RNA or immunoglobulin M antibodies. Among patients who tested negative for DBV, 15.1% tested positive for ALTNV.The most common manifestations of infection with ALTNV alone were fatigue (84%), GI problems (80%), thrombocytopenia (38%), and elevated aminotransferase concentrations (indicating inflammation or injury of the liver or other tissues; 36%). These patients recovered completely.Relative to infection with DBV alone, coinfection with ALTNV and DBV (38 patients) was linked to higher rates of respiratory symptoms (61% vs 38%) and kidney impairment (84% vs 66%). Seven (18.4%) coinfected patients died. ALTNV RNA was detected in 1.3% of 47,428 ticks in 15 provinces, with the highest prevalence in Haemaphysalis longicornis ticks (1.8%). Experiments showed that H longicornis can transmit the virus to mice.

USDA confirms new H5N1 avian flu cases in poultry, dairy cattle -After nearly 30 days with no updates, the US Department of Agriculture’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) this week posted several recent H5N1 avian flu detections in both commercial poultry and dairy cattle.In the past 30 days there have been three confirmed detections in dairy cows, with Texas reporting two affected herds and Utah reporting a single detection.So far this year 85 cattle herds have had confirmed H5N1 infections. Last year APHIS tracked 171 H5N1 outbreaks in cattle. In 2024, the year the virus was first detected in cows, the United States saw 917 herds infected.South Dakota is reporting a large H5N1 outbreak among commercial poultry breeding operations in Edmunds County, according to a separate APHIS tracker, with 29,700 birds affected. South Dakota reported another outbreak in Brule County with 2,800 birds. In Idaho, two smaller outbreaks were confirmed in birds in Ada and Canyon counties. In the past 30 days, APHIS has confirmed outbreaks in two commercial and three backyard US flocks.

Deadly virus stalks South Africa's sardines  - The tide came in last week carrying thousands of dead sardines onto South Africa's south coast, and by dawn, stretches of Gqeberha's shoreline were flecked with silver. Along Hobie and Pollock beaches, bewildered residents watched as waves deposited more fish on the sand, fueling fears that a virus linked to devastating sardine die-offs overseas may be at work. "It was a heartbreaking sight," local environmental group Algoa Bay Conservation said. Calls soon flooded marine scientists' offices. "We received numerous calls," Nadine Strydom, a professor in the zoology department at Nelson Mandela University, told AFP. Most of the fish were sardines and pilchards, she said, adding that the true scale of the mortality could be far greater than what washed ashore. "What we see on the beach is only a fraction, as some could be lying on the seabed," she said. The mass stranding came just weeks after a similar die-off along South Africa's Western Cape coast, hundreds of kilometers away. The wash-up has intensified concerns that pilchard herpesvirus, or PHV, a disease that devastated sardine populations in Australia and New Zealand in the 1990s, may be spreading through South African waters. Sardines occupy a crucial place in the marine food chain. 'First time' The Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment (DFFE) said on Sunday that a link between the Gqeberha and Western Cape events was considered likely, although it still required confirmation. "PHV remains the leading explanation for the Western Cape mortality event," the department said, adding that other causes and environmental factors would also be investigated. The virus was first confirmed in South African waters in July after sardines collected off Saldanha Bay, Cape Canyon, Elands Bay and Gansbaai tested positive, DFFE said. Genetic sequencing showed more than 99% similarity to the strain associated with the Australian outbreak. "This is the first time it has happened in South African history," Strydom said. PHV genetic material was found in both dead and apparently healthy sardines collected off Saldanha Bay, with the highest viral levels recorded in dead fish. But the finding does not prove that PHV caused the deaths, DFFE spokesperson Zolile Nqayi said. Scientists are examining whether the virus is the primary cause or is infecting fish already weakened by environmental stress. South Africa's sardine stocks are already low, while oxygen-depleted waters and harmful algal blooms can leave them more vulnerable to disease. Government testing found no evidence of paralytic shellfish toxins and only low levels of other marine toxins, suggesting algal poisoning was unlikely to be the primary driver. The investigation is now widening after sardine strandings were reported along Namibia's coastline. While PHV poses no known risk to human health, the outbreak's wider impacts are already being felt. At Koeberg nuclear power plant near Cape Town, dead sardines clogged a cooling-water intake basin, forcing the national electricity utility to halve power output at one of its two units. Scientists and conservation groups fear the consequences could extend far beyond the fishing industry. Craig Smith, a senior technical specialist at WWF South Africa, said the organization was working with government and industry representatives to respond to the outbreak. "We are deeply concerned," Smith said. "In Australia the virus wiped out 70% of the stock. We fear this may be the first wave, with the possibility of a more deadly second wave." Sardines occupy a crucial place in the marine food chain, serving as prey for dolphins, seals, seabirds and the critically endangered African penguin. The implications "are huge" as lots of fish have died and this can affect the environment, Strydom said. In Algoa Bay, home to one of the world's most important African penguin colonies, conservationists say the loss of sardines could intensify pressures on penguins already struggling to find enough food. "Already because of the uncontrolled fishing, penguins are struggling to get food and now with this virus killing sardines it's going to be worse,"

Warmer waters, pest species and habitat loss major threats to small, rare freshwater fish  - One of Australia's most comprehensive assessments of endemic, rare or threatened freshwater fish has found numerous species are at severe risk of extinction because of multiple threats, including habitat loss, invasive species and warmer waters. The species facing the highest risk was the diminutive Daintree rainbowfish (Cairnsichthys bitaeniatus), found only in small rainforest streams in the Daintree region in Far North Queensland, with up to 10 unique threats to its population. "These freshwater fish species are unique," lead author Dr. Kaitlyn O'Mara said. "Many are found nowhere else on Earth. If they are lost from the Wet Tropics, they become globally extinct. Freshwater fish are also important components of stream ecosystems and are indicators of ecosystem health. Their decline signals broader environmental deterioration." The study of 22 freshwater fish species across the entire Wet Tropics region was led by Griffith University's Australian Rivers Institute and published in the journal Pacific Conservation Biology. The team of 18 experts—representing Australian universities, government agencies, consultancies and regional natural resource management organizations—assessed published and gray literature, conservation listings and previous research on species biology, distribution and threats to identify the species most at risk and the actions needed to save them. They assessed 24 separate threats, ranging from climate change and invasive species to water extraction, habitat degradation and hybridization. For every species, they considered not only the threat itself but also its likelihood, consequence, extent, timing, trend and confidence level before assigning risk ratings. "You can't save what you can't see, so understanding the risks posed by historical, emerging and intensifying threats to these species is critical to addressing a knowledge gap that has hindered conservation planning," O'Mara said. "Extreme climate events, altered river flows, habitat clearing, poor water quality, invasive fish and hybridization with introduced native fish are high-risk threats to many species, but the species with the smallest ranges or lowest numbers were the most vulnerable."

Antarctica is home to microbes found nowhere else on Earth - Scientists have often wondered about species that are unique to Antarctica. But the focus has mainly been on animals, like feathery penguins. CIRES researchers wanted to dig deeper—into the soils—believing tiny organisms could be unique to the continent, too. The team, led by postdoctoral researcher Nick Dragone and co-authored by CIRES Fellow and director of the Center for Microbial Exploration Noah Fierer, recently found evidence that specific microbes in Antarctica's soils are endemic—located on the continent and nowhere else on Earth. The novel results were published today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. "There is a long-standing assumption in microbiology that 'everything is everywhere,'" Dragone said. "Antarctica has often been viewed as a possible exception, and our findings support that idea. Some Antarctic soil microbes appear to be distinct from those found in soils elsewhere around the world." Unlike animals or plants, microbes can disperse far, moving around the planet in ways other species can't. They may catch an updraft and float into the atmosphere or hitch a ride on an ocean current out to sea. The authors believed searching for endemic microbes in isolated Antarctica, the most extreme environment on Earth, might prove that assumption wrong. "If we're looking for endemic microorganisms, a good place to start is Antarctica, because it's an entire continent that is geographically isolated," Fierer said. "It also has unique conditions not typically found in other soil environments. Cold is the obvious one, but it is also super dry; Antarctica is a desert." To test this hypothesis, the team focused on bacterial strains within the Arthrobacter group because this group is common in soils from Antarctica to Colorado to the tropics. These strains can also be easy to grow in a lab, which was an important step in their research. "Arthrobacter as a group may be found all over the planet, but when we look closely at individual strains, just like penguins, Antarctica clearly has its own distinctive biological history," said Byron Adams, professor of biology at Brigham Young University and a co-author of the study. In the new study, the researchers analyzed soil samples from Antarctica and similar cold, dry environments like the Tibetan Plateau, Svalbard in the Arctic, and Chile's Atacama Desert. In total, they tested more than 100 Antarctic strains and nearly 500 from other locations worldwide. Studying soil samples collected from across Antarctica was key to this project. Dragone and Fierer both noted the research was made possible by long-term collaborations among international research teams that have spent decades collecting samples across the continent for various projects. Dragone and his team approached their research in two steps. First, they sequenced the genomes of Arthrobacter strains found in the Antarctic soil samples. Then, they compared the genomic traits of those bacteria found in Antarctic samples with those found in soil samples from around the world pulled from publicly available databases. This step provided evidence that the specific bacteria found in the Antarctic soil samples were different, with 90% of the strains found in Antarctica found nowhere else on Earth. "Previously there have been only a few endemic microbes found in very specific environments," Fierer said. "Finding organisms distinct in Antarctica and only found there does suggest there could be some in other locations; whether other microbial groups show these patterns is a good direction to go." Next, the team used soil samples to grow strains of Arthrobacter in Petri dishes in Fierer's lab at CU Boulder. They mimicked Antarctica's harsh environment to see how different strains adapted to conditions like temperature and dryness. Mostly, they found that the Antarctic strains grew more slowly but were very resilient. This final step proved that, in addition to being endemic, these Arthrobacter strains are uniquely adapted to Antarctica. Microscopic life worth protecting The work sets the stage for future research on microbial life in Antarctica. "We tend to think of biodiversity in terms of penguins, seals, and whales, but this shows that some of Antarctica's most distinctive species are microscopic," Adams said. "Protecting Antarctic biodiversity also means protecting the biological history contained in a handful of soil." "We already knew that a broad diversity of microbes can survive the inhospitable conditions of Antarctica," Fierer said. "Now we know that some of those microbes are also unique to Antarctica and are uniquely adapted to life on the southern continent."

Forest Service closing 23 research sites - The Forest Service is closing 23 research sites that it described as having few to no staffers as part of a broader reorganization, it announced Thursday. Earlier this year, the agency that manages the nation’s national forests said it would shutter the facilities after reviewing a total of 64 of them. It said that the sites it is closing had “little to no staffing” and said that employees who were working there will “transition” to locations where they can commute locally. Tom Schultz, chief of the Forest Service, said in a press release that the closures won’t result in any required staff cuts. “This announcement reflects our commitment to retain the staff our mission requires while responsibly reducing our facilities costs. Local facility consolidation will help us put more of our funding toward mission delivery and cutting-edge research, rather than brick and mortar we no longer need,” he said, adding that the move is expected to save the agency $8.8 million in annual lease savings and more than $8 million in deferred maintenance savings. The announcement comes after the Forest Service previously said it would move its headquarters from Washington, D.C., to Salt Lake City, moving 260 jobs with it.

Nepal flood rescue efforts intensify as number of missing soars past 2,000 – Aug 28 Rescuers pulled out survivors caked in dark brown mud and helicopters lifted stranded people to safety Friday as Nepal and China raced to respond after catastrophic flash floods and landslides killed almost 600 people and left roughly 2,500 missing. Nepali and Chinese authorities warned of further risk of flooding from a new lake that has formed upstream following Wednesday's disaster, telling people in the potentially affected areas to move to safer ground. More than 3,700 people have been rescued in Nepal so far, but 1,924 people remain unaccounted for in the country, according to authorities. China's state media previously said 558 people were missing on the Chinese side. Nepal's National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority said Friday that the confirmed death toll had risen to 579. Local Nepalese media said there could still be as many as 12,000 people unaccounted for, but that much higher figure was not confirmed by any officials. Hundreds of the missing are foreigners who were in the area to work, trek or make a pilgrimage to a sacred peak on the Tibet side of the border. Helicopters had carried more than 3,000 people to safety in Kathmandu and other locations. On the Chinese side, there was little information about survivors, although the death toll rose to five Friday as state media showed evacuations of villages and leaders' efforts to direct relief efforts. The Red Cross said Friday that some 90,000 people had likely been impacted by the flooding, which is believed to have been triggered by the collapse of a rocky ledge and the vast portion of a glacier it had supported. The Nepal Police issued a fresh alert Friday after receiving information that a dam on the Tibetan side of the border was running over. Security personnel and rescue and relief workers were told to stay on high alert and immediately move to a safe location if necessary. It was unclear if that concern was related to fears of flooding from an overflowing barrier lake that formed behind a dam formed by debris from the initial flash floods, high up on the Chinese side of the Himalayan mountains. Nepal police spokesperson Abi Narayan Kafle said the rescue operation "hasn't stopped," but was continuing under high alert. Although Chinese state broadcaster CCTV reported Friday that the lake was more than 6 miles from Gyirong Port, the border crossing with Nepal that was decimated by a wall of mud and water on Wednesday morning, it said the risk of flooding was high. It said the lake was at an elevation of 9,680 feet, about 3,280 feet above Gyirong Port. CCTV later said flood risks from the overflowing lake were deemed "manageable," Reuters reported. Nepali army rescuers were working to help people trapped in a hydropower tunnel in Rasuwa, part of the Upper Trishuli-1 Hydropower Project. In video from the scene, rescuers half-pulled, half-pushed a man covered in dark brown mud out of the tunnel. He was one of dozens who were likely trapped inside. Army spokesperson Brig. Gen. Raja Ram Basnet told The Associated Press the focus was on survivors. "It is complicated to find the entry and exit points of the tunnel because everything has been covered by mud," Basnet said. "Our first priority is rescuing the stranded people." Scientists said satellite images indicated that bedrock underneath a glacier high in the Himalayan region had collapsed, taking part of the glacier with it. The rockfall was so extreme that it registered as a magnitude 5.2 seismic event. The rocks and melted water suddenly swelled the rivers in the valleys below, causing torrents of water that swept buildings, bridges and earth downstream in Tibet and Nepal. Scientists were still piecing together information from satellite and ground-level data to confirm exactly what caused the flood, but Jakob Steiner, a geoscientist at the University of Graz in Austria who is currently based in Bangladesh, said "a lower part of a glacier has really come off," noting satellite images that he said made it look "like someone cut with a huge knife through the whole lower part" of the rock and ice.

Nepal warns of possible fresh flooding as communities grapple with devastation  Aug. 30, 2026. – Authorities in Nepal warned of possible fresh flooding on Sunday and urged residents in flood-affected districts to remain on high alert after water levels rose in the Bhotekoshi River. Flood warning notices were sent to people's phones early Sunday as rescue crews worked to clear a major highway connecting Kathmandu to one of the areas worst hit by Wednesday's catastrophic floods, which killed at least 800 people and left more than 3,000 missing in Nepal and Tibet. The latest warnings came after Chinese authorities informed their Nepalese counterparts of increased water flow upstream, according to Dharam Raj Uprety, chief executive of Nepal’s National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority. The Chinese state news agency Xinhua, citing the country’s water resources ministry, said a new lake formed after Wednesday’s floods high in the mountains had largely drained. But Xinhua said the ministry warned that a crater located 5.6 kilometers (3.5 miles) upstream, which held an estimated 1.4 million cubic meters (370 million gallons) of water, still posed some risk and required close monitoring. Nepal’s disaster agency said Sunday the death toll had climbed to 788 with 2,502 missing, while Chinese authorities reported 16 deaths and 546 missing on the Chinese side of the border. The missing include hundreds of people from over a dozen countries who were in the region to work, visit the mountains or make a pilgrimage to a sacred peak. On Sunday, Chinese state media said 261 foreigners were missing in Tibet, including over a hundred Nepalis and others from around the world. In Dhading, one of the worst-hit regions in Nepal, some residents began returning to ruined homes to see what can be salvaged. Residents sat in homes with walls washed away by the floods, shoveling sludge-like mud and rubble off balconies or window frames. Others scanned the ground for items they could pick out of the mud and rinse off. One man had returned for his chickens, which he found alive. He tied them up and put them in the cabin of his truck. “Everything is finished. Nothing is left. Not even our home,” Sharmila Tamang, a Dhading resident who was trying to salvage items from her home, told The Associated Press. At a key power plant that was severely damaged by the floods, workers started inspecting the facilities Sunday to survey the destruction. The plant serves over 20,000 people across four districts. In the town of Galchhi, a group of residents sought higher ground on a nearby bridge and watched as the river roared by. Some pointed to enormous rocks washed downriver during the earlier floods, while others standing on a suspension bridge were warned off with whistles. Along the river, homes, vehicles and farm tractors could be seen jutting from the thick gray-brown sediment that enveloped entire villages in some areas. Parts of rice terraces along the riverside had dropped into the river after landslides hit them. Homes and businesses left intact after the flooding were still without electricity on Sunday, as twisted power line poles and wires lay tangled in the mud. Residents of flood-hit villages said they were struggling to make sense of near-constant alarms they've received since the initial floods. “Sometimes they say a flood is coming, then we have to run again to higher ground, even at night. There is also rain,” said Govind Shreshta, a resident. “It’s really difficult for me. I have a 72-year-old father and 70-year-old mom. I must carry them and I am exhausted. It’s going on like this for those who are still alive.”

China finishes rebuilding road to Nepal border less than one week after devastating flash floods | The road leading to the Gyirong border crossing between China and Nepal has been fully restored, just a week after it was destroyed in catastrophic flash floods.The border crossing was torn apart when a glacier collapsed above the Nepal-Tibet border last week, sending a surge of ice, rock and mud through the valley below. It is the main trade and transport link between China and Nepal in this part of the Himalayas, used for carrying goods and travellers over the mountains to the Nepali border town of Rasuwagadhi. Its destruction had left rescue teams struggling to reach some of the worst-affected areas on the Chinese side. T he last stretch of the route reopened on Wednesday, Chinese state broadcaster CCTV said, with multiple rescue teams now on site to speed up the search for those still missing. It comes as Nepalese rescuers pulled 118 more people to safety with the help of helicopters and other air assets.   A Nepalese Army statement referred to 119 people – 118 Nepalese citizens and one Briton. However, the British national, identified as Alastair Chambers, 45, later clarified he was not a rescued tourist. The former Gloucester councillor said he had travelled to Nepal as a volunteer.He was distributing aid to communities cut off by collapsed bridges, and was mistaken for a flood survivor when he returned to Kathmandu on a humanitarian aid helicopter and gave his details to a police officer at the army barracks."They presumed that I'd been rescued," he said. "I gave them my details, just abiding by the rules, and they obviously thought that I'd been rescued." He said he had since had to correct multiple journalists who had contacted him believing he was a survivor.

This principal in Nepal evacuated 900 students before flooding swept away their school - (AP) — Rajendra Dawadi was inside his classroom when a colleague rushed in with a warning: Floodwaters were racing through Nepal's Trishuli Valley, tearing apart homes, bridges and entire villages. Then a teacher received another warning by phone. Moments later, a parent arrived to take her child home. The danger had not yet been confirmed, but Dawadi, the principal, had little time to act. He rang the school bell and ordered his students and staff out of the building and toward higher ground. "I immediately decided to stop ... school" and get the children out, he told The Associated Press. As he followed them to a nearby hill, the floodwaters rose behind him. From the safety of the hillside, he turned to watch the school where he had once been a student — and where he had spent years teaching — disappear beneath a torrent of water, mud, boulders and debris. Two staff members could not make it and remain missing. Dawadi's decision to evacuate the school saved at least 900 students from last week's devastating flash floods in Nepal, unleashed after a glacial collapse in the Himalayas. The disaster killed over 950 people in Nepal and Tibet, while more than 4,400 remain missing. As Nepal grapples with the catastrophic natural disaster, Dawadi's story has emerged as a striking example of foresight and courage. The Tribhuvan Trishuli Secondary School had 1,643 students. At least 900 were on campus that morning, while some students were still making their way to school. Dawadi ordered those already there to leave and called bus drivers to tell them not to come. One bus, packed with students, had already reached the school when Dawadi told the driver to turn back, he said. The bus crossed a newly constructed bridge and, moments later, the old bridge beside it collapsed. For Dawadi, the scale of the destruction has become personal, as the school had been both his workplace and a large part of his life. "I have no words. I got education from that school. And I gave education at that school," he said. The destruction of Dawadi's school was not an isolated loss. Across northern Nepal, the floods have left thousands of children without classrooms, disrupted their education and raised fears that the disaster could cost them months of schooling. Aid group Save the Children said in a statement that at least 69 schools in northern Nepal were destroyed, putting the education of nearly 19,000 students at risk.

Nepal flood death toll crosses 1,000, rescuers reach remote areas   (Reuters) - The death toll from Nepal's devastating floods surpassed 1,000 on Tuesday as rescuers deployed heavy machinery, helicopters ‌and excavators to reach thousands still missing nearly a week after the Himalayan disaster tore through towns and valleys. Specialised rescue teams from China, India and Nepal built temporary bridges to reach remote areas and dug through the ruins of hydropower projects, using excavators to try to rescue nearly 300 workers trapped inside tunnels. A glacier collapse on August 26 sent a deluge of ice, rock and mud sweeping through the impoverished ​nation's border region with China. At least 639 people remain stranded in devastated hydropower stations that have become the focus of rescue efforts, Nepal's disaster management authority ​said on Tuesday. The death toll rose to 1,050, while about 4,000 people remain missing, including 583 foreign nationals. The disaster left at least ⁠2.2 million tons of debris, according to a preliminary estimate by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), including parts of buildings, rocks, and sediment. "The amount of debris shows the scale ​of the destruction and the challenge communities face as they clear homes, roads and public spaces and begin to rebuild," it said. More than 11,000 people have been rescued, and power ​and communication lines were restored in some areas, Prime Minister Balendra Shah said in a social media post on Monday. "We did not have the time to grab anything before fleeing," said a survivor from the hard-hit Rasuwa district, who had walked to Nuwakot with scores of other survivors. "What we were wearing is the only pair of clothes we have. And even they are wet from rain." In China, rescue teams worked through the night to reopen access to the Nepali border, on a steep mountain gorge flanked by unstable cliffs and fast-flowing river channels. Beijing will ​send DNA testing experts to disaster-hit areas and a second batch of relief supplies, including drones and water purification, its foreign ministry said. South Korea, nine of whose nationals were working at a hydropower ‌project and ⁠are missing, said it will send a 44-member emergency relief team to support search-and-rescue operations in Rasuwa. Nepal last week declined foreign participation in general search and rescue but said it needed specialised services and advanced technological support in areas such as life-detecting machines, large refrigerators and pre-fabricated bridges. Aid worth over $42 million flowed into the country after the disaster, Shah said, with contributions expected to increase. Shah said 279 workers were rescued from hydropower projects, with joint teams from Nepal, India and China working on search-and-rescue operations. Rescuers are contending ​with collapsed tunnels and floodwaters that have ​made access difficult at several hydropower sites ⁠where the largest numbers of people are believed trapped, an army source said. "Our first rescue observation at Trishuli Hydro Power plant shows that it is not humanly possible to go into the tunnel," Asish Gurung, a mountain guide helping in the tunnel rescue, told ​Reuters from Haku village in Rasuwa district. "We need machines like bulldozers and excavators... There may be about 500 people trapped inside," ​he said. There has been ⁠a boom in hydropower projects in Nepal since the turn of the century as the mountainous nation sought to take advantage of its Himalayan water resources to address chronic domestic power shortages and expand electricity exports to neighbouring India. Shah said the disaster signalled the growing risks the Himalayan region faces from a warming planet. "The time has come for us to strongly raise before the ⁠international community the ​disasters we are experiencing as a consequence of climate change," he said. Kanni Wignaraja, a U.N. assistant ​secretary-general, told Reuters that Nepal, which depends on glaciers for both income and water supplies, now faces "some very, very hard choices." Last week's flood was "caused by glacier instability under the long-term effects of global warming", China's state broadcaster ​said on Monday.

Hundreds feared stuck in hydropower tunnels after Nepal floods   (AP) — Rescuers raced Monday to free hundreds of workers believed to be trapped in tunnels at hydropower sites that were buried in mud by catastrophic flooding on the Nepal-China border, as the death toll climbed and increasingly desperate families searched for missing loved ones.The combined deaths in Nepal and China surpassed 950, with more than 4,400 people missing. A private-sector association representing power companies said at least 900 workers were unaccounted for at 12 hydropower projects damaged by the flash floods in Nepal’s Rasuwa and Nuwakot districts.About 500 of those workers were believed to be trapped in tunnels. At least one expert said that some workers could have access to oxygen, but others warned that the chances of finding survivors were diminishing. As the rescue efforts intensified, four bodies were recovered from three mud-filled tunnels, Nepal’s army said.Some workers managed to call for help when the disaster struck last Wednesday, and others who managed to flee reported that many of their colleagues were still in the tunnels, said Mohan Kumar Dangi, president of the Independent Power Producers’ Association, Nepal, or IPPAN.It was unclear whether rescuers have had any contact with the trapped workers since the initial calls for help.Six days after the disaster, fears were growing that some might have suffocated, Dangi said. Rescue efforts were focused on people trapped in the gigantic tunnels built for controlling the flow of water.“These tunnels are big enough to drive trucks through,” said Jakob Steiner, a geoscientist at the University of Graz in Austria based in Dhaka, Bangladesh. “And from what we understand, they have managed to get oxygen to some of those stuck inside and are trying to rescue them now. It’s a race for time, though, as people need food and water.” In the Upper Trishuli-1 Hydropower Project, in the hard-hit Rasuwa district, at least 576 people were missing, Dangi said, adding that around 300 of them were believed to be trapped inside the project’s tunnel.At the Trishuli-3 Hydropower Project, crews were working to descend about 15 meters (50 feet) into a tunnel to reach those believed trapped inside, according to Brig. Gen. Raja Ram Basnet, Nepal’s army spokesman. Workers shoveling mud from a flood-ravaged power station in Dhading, Nepal, told The Associated Press that the station is a key connection for providing power to over 20,000 people in the region. On the Chinese side, rescue and recovery efforts included rebuilding the road leading to the Gyirong Port border crossing that regulated travel between China and Nepal. Trucks carried giant rocks as workers tried to repave a portion of the road, state broadcaster CCTV showed Monday, next to rapidly rushing waters, which have been made more powerful by days of rain. The road is now under 2 to 3 meters (6.6 to 9.8 feet) of water. The repaving effort was just a little over a kilometer (0.62 miles) from the border, CCTV said.Although some rescue teams have managed to reach the border, that represented only a portion of the force.Chinese state media coverage has focused largely on the official response, highlighting the deployment of firefighters, the People’s Liberation Army and instructions from top leaders. Little is known about victims on the Chinese side.

Inside the mission to reach Nepal's underground 'Goldilocks zones' – Scenes from the floods in Nepal and Tibet are catastrophic. But another disaster is unfolding underground and out of sight. More than 900 workers linked to hydropower projects in flood-ravaged districts near the two countries’ border are feared trapped after a cataclysmic deluge of ice, rock, mud and water swept through the region last Wednesday. Under floodlights and a backdrop of collapsed hillsides, rescuers are excavating around the clock in a bid to reach those trapped underground. Their condition remains unknown. But Melbourne-based geologist and engineer Arnold Dix, who was invited by Nepalese authorities to provide advice on the rescues, says any survivors could live for as long as 17 days. He says some of the underground power stations likely withstood the immense pressure of the flash flooding. However, it remains unclear whether emergency systems activated in time or whether water and debris inundated them. Professor Dix describes the terrain as a “lunar landscape”. “Everything is just missing,” he says, and that is making it difficult to even find the access tunnels for the underground power stations. For rescuers, each site presents its own challenge. This map shows the layout of the Trishuli 3B hydro power plant. As water flows down the river, some is diverted into the plant’s intake and through a kilometres-long “headrace tunnel” that runs under the mountains that tower immediately beside the riverbanks. It then reaches the powerhouse, where the energy of the rushing water is converted into electricity. “The deluge basically wiped out 27 power stations,” Professor Dix says. “Of them, 12 are destroyed, and there’s nothing left at the surface. “We are focusing our efforts on the subterranean spaces that we know will have survived the impact of that debris coming down the valley.” Those efforts are focused on the power station structures themselves, not the ‘headrace’ tunnels that carry water through the systems. The Trishuli 3A hydropower project, where Professor Dix is assisting, includes a 33-metre facility that is buried underneath the mountains. Rescuers are focused on accessing a tunnel that leads to an underground powerhouse at the Trishuli 3A hydropower project, shown here in satellite imagery captured before the flooding. Rooms inside these underground structures, along with supplies, such as water and equipment, could improve the chances of survival for any trapped workers, although dwindling air supplies remain a major concern. Forty-two workers have been reported missing here, and rescuers are concentrating on locating and entering the access tunnel that leads to the underground powerhouse. Photos taken during the construction phase of the plant provide a sense of its enormous scale. Now, the riverbed itself lies buried beneath flood debris and there’s no visible sign of the tunnels at the surface. “The topography completely changed,” Professor Dix says. “We had to use advanced satellites, technical drawings and vision coming in from the helicopters on the ground to find the exact right locations.” Search and rescue efforts have also been hampered by poor weather, mud, and the loss of critical infrastructure like roads and bridges. Despite the uncertainty, there is hope some workers may have reached what engineers refer to as the “Goldilocks zone”. “The Goldilocks zone, where we think people might be, is right up at the top of the underground powerhouse in the area between where the tunnels enter the power station and the roof,” Professor Dix says. This cross-section diagram of the powerhouse shows what Professor Dix is talking about — if rescuers are to find any survivors, they are likely to be in the highest section of the 11-storey underground structure, above the power cubicle. A cross-section drawing shows the 11-storey Trishuli 3A hydropower plant, buried underneath the mountains of Nepal. “So that’s where we’re hoping that people [are] who’ve survived the initial explosion — and that’s effectively what this is. It’s not a flood, it’s an explosion. “There’s plenty of air there in the Goldilocks zone, and it’s a large space. If there was any place you were going to survive, it would be there.”

More than 60 airlifted, 15 missing after Grand Canyon flash flood, Arizona - More than 60 people were airlifted and approximately 15 remained missing or unaccounted for after flash flooding struck Bright Angel Canyon and the Phantom Ranch area of Grand Canyon National Park, Arizona, on August 29, 2026. The body of a 46-year-old man was recovered near Crystal Rapids on August 30, but authorities had not confirmed whether his death was connected to the flooding. Flash flooding struck Bright Angel Canyon and the Phantom Ranch area of Grand Canyon National Park, Arizona, at approximately 14:30 MST (21:30 UTC) on August 29, destroying nearly all footbridges across Bright Angel Creek and damaging the Transcanyon Waterline. More than 60 people were airlifted, while approximately 15 remained missing or unaccounted for. The body of a 46-year-old man was recovered near Crystal Rapids along the Colorado River on the evening of August 30, according to the National Park Service (NPS). The Coconino County Medical Examiner was investigating, and authorities had not established whether the death was connected to the flash flooding. NPS initially reported that 62 people had been evacuated from Phantom Ranch and the lower North Kaibab Trail by the morning of August 30. Additional evacuations from Cottonwood Campground and Phantom Ranch continued in coordination with the Arizona Department of Public Safety. Evacuees were transported to the Maswik Lodge Cafeteria on the South Rim, where the American Red Cross coordinated assistance. The National Weather Service (NWS) in Flagstaff issued a Flash Flood Warning for the Bright Angel Creek Basin below the Dragon Bravo Fire scar at 14:42 MST (21:42 UTC) on August 29. At the time of issuance, Doppler radar estimated that 6.4–12.7 mm (0.25–0.5 inches) of rain had fallen over the warned basin, with another 6.4–12.7 mm (0.25–0.5 inches) possible. NWS classified the hazard as life-threatening flash flooding. An NWS meteorologist later told the Associated Press that approximately 13–25 mm (0.5–1 inch) of rain fell within about 20 minutes over part of the steep basin. Two earlier storm systems had already saturated the area before the heaviest rainfall arrived. NPS said nearly all footbridges spanning Bright Angel Creek were destroyed, eliminating hiker access across the creek. Flooding also damaged trails, bridges, utilities and facilities throughout Bright Angel Canyon. Phantom Ranch, Bright Angel Campground, the Phantom Ranch Canteen and cabins, and the North Kaibab Trail from the North Kaibab Trailhead to Phantom Ranch were closed until further notice. Black Bridge and Silver Bridge across the Colorado River were also closed. Metal structures, boulders, and other debris entered the Colorado River, prompting NPS to close the river to traffic until further notice. River parties already inside the canyon were receiving instructions from river operations rangers through the Grand Canyon River Alert system. The flooding also damaged the Transcanyon Waterline, which carries water from the canyon for use inside the park. NPS said the line was not operational and available water reserves were limited. Stage 4 water restrictions took effect on the South Rim at noon on August 31. All park concessioners were required to suspend overnight accommodations, while only dry camping was permitted on the South Rim. Water spigots at campgrounds were shut off except at designated locations, and wood and charcoal fires were prohibited. The South Rim remained open for day use, with food, beverage, clinic and postal services continuing, although some facilities could operate with reduced hours. NPS asked the public for information about approximately 15 people who might be missing or unaccounted for after traveling through the affected corridor. The areas of interest included Bright Angel Creek, Bright Angel Campground, the Box and the North Kaibab Trail between its trailhead and Phantom Ranch. Officials asked anyone with information about hikers, backpackers or campground users in the affected areas on August 29 to contact the NPS Investigative Services Branch. NWS defined the warned area as the Bright Angel Creek Basin below the Dragon Bravo Fire scar. Burned terrain in the North Kaibab corridor is more susceptible to flash flooding, debris flows, and rockfall during or after rainfall, although officials had not quantified the burn scar’s contribution to this event.

2 people dead, about 15 possibly missing after deadly flash flooding rips through Grand Canyon and more rain could come -  One of the nation’s most famously arid landmarks succumbed to deadly flash flooding over the weekend, leaving at least two people dead and roughly a dozen unaccounted for as more rain could lash Grand Canyon National Park in Arizona on Monday. The body of a 46-year-old man was found near Crystal Rapids along the Colorado River, park officials said. His identity and the name of the second victim have not been released.“Search and recovery efforts continue following the flooding in Grand Canyon National Park,” the National Park Service said in a statement Monday, confirming two bodies have been recovered.Earlier, the National Park Service said about 15 people could be missing after “nearly all footbridges spanning Bright Angel Creek were destroyed, eliminating hiker access across the creek.”The flooding on the canyon floor started Saturday afternoon after waves of rainfall thrashed Bright Angel Canyon and Phantom Ranch – the only lodging under the rim of the Grand Canyon. The ranch can be reached only on foot, by mule or by rafting the Colorado River.The fourth and final wave, which struck around 2:30 p.m., “was by far the heaviest, producing 0.50”-1.00” in around 30 minutes,” the National Weather Service said. And more rain could pummel the area Monday, the National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center said. The agency elevated the risk of flooding rainfall for the area to a Level 3 of 4 threat, meaning numerous flash floods are likely. “After recent heavy rain and significant flash flooding, the region is extremely vulnerable, so any additional heavy rain today will likely lead to flash flood impacts, which locally could be significant,” the forecast center said. Meanwhile, park rangers had warned that another deluge could bring more “debris flows, rockfall and changing trail and river conditions.”As of Sunday afternoon, at least 62 people had been evacuated, the Grand Canyon National Park said in a statement. One couple had a narrow escape with incoming floodwaters as they fled to their cabin. “As they were being evacuated, they could see that the bridges that they had crossed just 15 minutes earlier had been washed away,” a Red Cross spokesperson told CNN affiliate KTVK/KPHO.  Those missing were “either on a backcountry itinerary in the inner canyon or believed to be day hiking along the North Kaibab/Phantom Ranch area,” spokesperson Joelle Baird told The New York Times on Sunday. CNN has reached out to the park for more information. Grand Canyon National Park staff and the Arizona Department of Public Safety conducted helicopter searches of the North Kaibab Trail and the Colorado River from the mouth of Bright Angel Creek to Deer Creek Narrows Sunday, but no missing people were found, Baird told the Times. Parts of the Bright Angel Trail – the most popular hiking trail into the canyon, which reaches the canyon floor next to the Colorado River – remain closed Monday due to the flooding, according to the park service.

Tropical Storm Edouard strengthens in northern Gulf, Hurricane Watch issued for Texas and Louisiana - Tropical Storm Edouard was strengthening over the northern Gulf early on September 1, 2026, after Tropical Depression Five became a named storm at 00:00 UTC. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued a Hurricane Watch and Storm Surge Warning for portions of the Upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts at 03:00 UTC, warning that Edouard could approach hurricane strength before reaching the northwestern Gulf Coast later on September 1.

• Edouard is expected to strengthen, and it could approach hurricane strength before it reaches the northwest Gulf Coast on Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions are expected along the northwest Gulf Coast, with hurricane conditions possible from High Island to Cameron.
• A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from High Island, Texas to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, Louisiana, where peak values of 0.9 to 1.5 m (3–5 feet) above ground level are possible along the immediate coast within the warning area.
• Heavy rain will impact parts of the Upper Texas coast through east-central Texas into far Southwest Louisiana Tuesday and Wednesday as Tropical Storm Edouard tracks inland. Flash flooding is likely across this region, especially in urban areas. River flooding may also be possible.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) initiated advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five at 15:00 UTC on August 31 after aircraft reconnaissance, surface observations, and scatterometer data showed that its circulation remained elongated and poorly defined. Advisories were initiated before tropical-cyclone formation because the system was expected to develop and tropical-storm conditions threatened portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast. By 18:00 UTC, Air Force Hurricane Hunter data showed that the low-level circulation had become sufficiently well defined for NHC to classify the system as Tropical Depression Five. At that time, the depression was centered approximately 195 km (120 miles) south-southeast of Morgan City, Louisiana, and 370 km (230 miles) southeast of Port Arthur, Texas. Maximum sustained winds were 55 km/h (35 mph), and the depression was moving west-northwest at 7 km/h (5 mph). Its estimated minimum central pressure was 1 012 hPa. The circulation continued to organize through the evening. At 21:00 UTC, the center was located about 170 km (105 miles) south of Morgan City and 300 km (185 miles) southeast of Port Arthur, with maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h (35 mph) and a minimum central pressure of 1 011 hPa. The depression strengthened into Tropical Storm Edouard at 00:00 UTC on September 1, becoming the fifth named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. At that time, maximum sustained winds had increased to 65 km/h (40 mph), and the center was about 225 km (140 miles) southeast of Cameron, Louisiana, and 280 km (175 miles) southeast of Port Arthur. By 03:00 UTC, Edouard’s center was located approximately 195 km (125 miles) southeast of Cameron and 250 km (155 miles) southeast of Port Arthur. Maximum sustained winds remained at 65 km/h (40 mph), with higher gusts, while the minimum central pressure had fallen to 1 005 hPa based on Air Force reconnaissance data. Edouard was moving west-northwest at 11 km/h (7 mph), and tropical-storm-force winds extended up to 35 km (25 miles) from the center. NHC issued a Hurricane Watch from High Island, Texas, to Cameron, Louisiana, at 03:00 UTC, indicating that hurricane conditions were possible within the watch area within 24 hours. A Storm Surge Warning was also issued from High Island to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line in Louisiana. A Tropical Storm Warning remained in effect from Port Bolivar, Texas, to the Vermilion/Iberia Parish Line in Louisiana.

Edouard brings flash flooding to Texas after becoming 3rd storm to make US landfall this year -- Tropical Storm Edouard made landfall near Johnson Bayou, Louisiana, on Tuesday afternoon after intensifying as it approached the Gulf Coast, prompting flash flooding emergencies in southeastern Texas and knocking out power to thousands. Edouard rapidly organized from a tropical rainstorm Sunday into a named storm Monday, putting coastal communities on alert for flooding and power outages. The storm strengthened in the hours leading up to landfall, with maximum sustained winds reaching 60 mph, with locally higher gusts. Edouard became a tropical depression Tuesday night, but continued to produce torrential rain on Wednesday, prompting multiple rescues and flash flooding emergencies in Texas. Edouard is the third tropical storm to make landfall along this part of the Gulf Coast in 2026. Arthur was the first storm of the season and made landfall near Matagorda Bay, Texas, in mid-June. One month later, Tropical Storm Bertha made landfall east of New Orleans before drifting back over the Gulf, followed by a second landfall near the border of Texas and Louisiana. Extreme Meteorologist Dr. Reed Timmer was in Holly Beach, Louisiana, Tuesday as rough Gulf waves moved toward the coast with the storm’s center just offshore.Timmer later reported from Beaumont, where widespread power outages and flooding were impacting Jefferson County, Texas due to Edouard's damaging winds.Outages across southeastern Texas jumped to nearly 82,000 by nightfall on Tuesday. On Wednesday, power outages were holding at around 71,000 customers out. A preliminary 90-mph wind gust was recorded in Port Arthur, and other top gusts included 71 mph at Texas Point and 67 mph in Nederland and Beaumont.Emergency management officials warned motorists to stay off flooded roads in Port Arthur, where AccuWeather Meteorologist Tony Laubach watched conditions deteriorate as Edouard approached.“I always compare tropical systems to a slow burn,” Laubach said. “It takes a little while, and then once you get closer to landfall, that’s when things really ramp up in a big way.” After landfall, conditions became dangerous in Southeast Texas.In Taylor Landing, Texas, Laubach documented power poles and trees down as high winds caused damage across the area. More than a dozen districts canceled Wednesday classes, including Beaumont, Port Arthur, Conroe and Willis. Port Arthur and Beaumont were assessing damage, outages and unsafe roads.A corridor of 2-8 inches of rain is forecast around Houston and the upper Texas coast through Wednesday, with 8-12 inches possible in a narrow area east of Houston.AccuWeather’s Local StormMax™ of 20 inches was verified by Wednesday with between 10 and 21 inches of rain falling across parts of Hardin and Tyler counties. Tropical downpours could continue to cause localized flooding. Additional tropical moisture will keep showers and thunderstorms in the forecast along the Gulf coast later this week.Texas Gov. Greg Abbott activated the Texas Division of Emergency Management for around-the-clock operations and directed state agencies to prepare to assist communities with flooding, storm damage and power outages. ERCOT, which manages most of the state’s electrical grid, was also anticipating elevated demand because of hot weather across eastern and southeastern Texas. State emergency resources remained engaged in wildfire response operations in several other parts of Texas.

Edouard weakens to tropical depression over Texas, WPC warns of significant flash flooding – 3 Youtube videos - Tropical Storm Edouard made landfall near Johnson Bayou, Louisiana, at 14:20 CDT (19:20 UTC) on September 1, 2026, with winds of 95 km/h (60 mph), then weakened to a tropical depression over southeastern Texas. The Weather Prediction Center forecast storm-total rainfall of 102–203 mm (4–8 inches), with localized totals near 305 mm (12 inches), while Flood Watches remained in effect and approximately 70 000 Entergy Texas customers were without power late September 1. Satellite image of Tropical Storm Edouard at 19:20 UTC on September 1, 2026.

• Tropical Storm Edouard made landfall near Johnson Bayou, Louisiana, at 14:20 CDT (19:20 UTC) on September 1 with maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h (60 mph) and a minimum central pressure of 996 hPa.
• The storm brought strong winds, heavy rainfall, and power outages to parts of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana, with approximately 70 000 Entergy Texas customers without electricity late September 1.
• Heavy rain bands associated with Edouard are forecast to move north of the Upper Texas Coast and southwestern Louisiana during the morning of September 2, then track slowly across east-central Texas through the morning of September 3. Flash flooding is likely, particularly in urban and low-lying areas, with significant flash flooding possible. River flooding is also possible.

  Edouard crossed the coast approximately 25 km (15 miles) south-southeast of Port Arthur, Texas, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Its minimum central pressure at landfall was estimated at 996 hPa. A National Ocean Service station near Texas Point, Texas, measured sustained winds of 93 km/h (57 mph) and a gust of 114 km/h (71 mph) around the time of landfall. At 04:00 CDT (09:00 UTC) on September 2, the center of Tropical Depression Edouard was near 30.8°N, 95.0°W, approximately 115 km (70 miles) northwest of Beaumont and 50 km (30 miles) south-southwest of Lufkin, Texas. Maximum sustained winds were 55 km/h (35 mph), and the minimum central pressure was 1 004 hPa. The depression was moving north-northwest at 7 km/h (5 mph). Satellite loop of Tropical Storm Edouard making landfall over the Gulf Coast on September 1, 2026. Credit: NOAA/GOES-19, RAMMB/CIRA, The Watchers NHC issued its final advisory at 03:00 UTC on September 2, transferring responsibility for subsequent advisories to WPC beginning at 09:00 UTC. WPC forecast Edouard to weaken into a post-tropical remnant low early September 3 and dissipate later that day. Flood Watches remained in effect from the Upper Texas Coast into portions of eastern Texas. WPC said gusts reaching tropical-storm force could continue near Edouard’s center for several hours. Youtube video Entergy Texas reported approximately 70 000 customers without electricity across its service area at 19:15 CDT on September 1 (00:15 UTC on September 2). More than 1 500 personnel and supporting resources were deployed to assess damage, complete repairs and restore power. The utility said high winds, flooding and debris could delay restoration by preventing crews from safely reaching damaged equipment. Entergy does not operate bucket trucks when sustained winds reach 56 km/h (35 mph) or higher. Youtube video Helicopters, drones, rear-alley machines and high-water vehicles were available to assist with damage assessments and restoration. Crews could also restore service in some areas by rerouting electricity when field repairs could not be completed safely. The City of Beaumont extended the closure of City Hall, Municipal Court, public libraries, event facilities and recreation facilities through the morning of September 2. The facilities were scheduled to reopen at noon, while Beaumont Transit planned to resume service at 09:30 CDT. City crews and first responders continued assessing conditions, clearing roads and addressing storm-related hazards. Residents and business owners were asked to report damage through the Texas iSTAT Damage Survey once conditions were safe. The city warned residents against entering structures affected by significant structural damage, flooding, downed power lines, natural gas odors or other hazards. No aggregate damage estimate was included in the municipal notices. WPC placed portions of southeastern Texas under a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall through September 2 into the morning of September 3. Thunderstorms were forecast near and south of Edouard’s weakening circulation. Training and backbuilding storms could produce high rainfall rates before the circulation dissipated. Atmospheric moisture around the system was forecast to remain high, with precipitable-water values near 51–57 mm (2–2.25 inches). Low-level inflow could support rainfall rates of approximately 51–76 mm/h (2–3 inches/h) in stronger bands across eastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana. WPC forecast storm-total rainfall of 102–203 mm (4–8 inches) along Edouard’s path from the Upper Texas Coast into east-central Texas, with localized totals near 305 mm (12 inches). Southwestern Louisiana was expected to receive 51–102 mm (2–4 inches). The agency said the rainfall was likely to produce flash flooding, particularly in urban and low-lying areas. Significant flash flooding was possible, while river flooding could also occur. A brief tornado or two was possible through early September 2 across parts of southwestern Louisiana and southeastern Texas, according to WPC. A Hurricane Watch had been in effect from High Island, Texas, to Cameron, Louisiana, while a Storm Surge Warning covered part of the Texas-Louisiana coast before landfall. NHC discontinued both at 13:00 CDT (18:00 UTC) on September 1, approximately 80 minutes before landfall. A Tropical Storm Warning remained in effect for portions of the coast before being reduced after landfall. NHC discontinued the remaining warning at 22:00 CDT on September 1, leaving no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Multiple people missing, more than 100 houses collapse in Putian as Typhoon Saudel floods Fujian, China – 3 Youtube videos - Multiple people were missing, and more than 100 houses had collapsed in Huating Town, Putian, after Typhoon Saudel brought heavy rain and severe flooding across Fujian on September 3, 2026. Authorities evacuated 83 700 people from risk areas, while NMC recorded local rainfall totals reaching 565.5 mm (22.26 inches) in some areas. Fifty rivers in Fujian exceeded warning levels at 74 hydrological stations between September 3 and 4. Putian municipal authorities reported that a dike near Xihu Village in Huating Town, Chengxiang District, overtopped and breached at approximately 15:00 LT (07:00 UTC) on September 3. Floodwater entered nearby villages and an industrial area, inundating homes and trapping residents. Authorities said multiple people were missing and more than 100 houses had collapsed but did not provide a missing-person total. Authorities said the figure could change as search, rescue and damage assessments continued. Xihu Village transferred 52 households comprising 171 people. Chengxiang District relocated 1 261 people and opened 30 emergency shelters. The district also deployed emergency personnel to five waterlogged road sections. Two drainage pumping stations had removed more than 5 million cubic meters (1.32 billion US gallons) of water. Putian’s Level I Rainstorm Warning remained in effect at noon on September 4 as the heavy-rainfall episode continued. Local meteorological authorities forecast further heavy to torrential rain during the day, followed by afternoon showers and thunderstorms from September 5 to 8. NMC reported that parts of Putian and Quanzhou received 250–565.5 mm (9.84–22.26 inches) of rain on September 3. The maximum hourly rainfall reached 150.3 mm (5.92 inches) locally in Putian. Heavy to torrential rain also affected parts of Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangdong, Zhejiang and Taiwan. Saudel made its third landfall in China near Gulei in Zhangpu County, Zhangzhou, at approximately 06:30 LT on September 3 (22:30 UTC on September 2). The system was a tropical storm at landfall, with maximum sustained winds of approximately 83 km/h (51 mph), reported by NMC, and a minimum central pressure of 985 hPa. Saudel weakened to a tropical depression over Meizhou, Guangdong, by 14:00 LT on September 3. NMC stopped numbering the system at 17:00 LT after its winds weakened further and its circulation center became difficult to locate. The Fujian provincial flood-control headquarters reported that 83 700 people had been evacuated from marine and inland risk areas by 07:00 LT on September 3. The provincial flood-control emergency response, raised to Level II at 11:00 LT on September 2, remained in effect on September 4, along with a Level IV typhoon response. Classes were suspended across Fuzhou, Quanzhou, Zhangzhou and Ningde. Authorities placed eight national and provincial road locations under preventive traffic controls and suspended 657 road passenger-transport routes. Work was halted at 152 construction sites, while 158 A-level scenic sites were closed. Torrential rains unleashed by Typhoon Saudel have battered Ningde in east China's Fujian Province since September 1, causing floods, trapping residents and damaging roads across the city. Saudel, the 18th typhoon of this year, made its third landfall on the coast of Fujian on… pic.twitter.com/aJmHEYLDvG Between 06:00 LT on September 3 and 06:00 LT on September 4, water levels on 50 rivers exceeded warning thresholds at 74 hydrological stations, according to the Fujian Hydrology and Water Resources Survey Center. The exceedances affected eight prefecture-level areas. The Xianyou and Laixi stations in Putian recorded their highest flood levels on record. At 06:00 LT on September 4, 18 stations on 13 rivers remained above warning level, with Laixi remaining above the higher guaranteed water level used for flood-control operations. The National Development and Reform Commission announced an additional CNY 100 million in central-budget investment on September 4 to support disaster recovery in Fujian. The agency cited flooding in Quanzhou, Zhangzhou, Ningde and Putian associated with Typhoons Narra and Saudel and their heavy rainfall. The National Commission for Disaster Prevention, Reduction and Relief and the Ministry of Emergency Management had activated a national Level IV disaster-relief response for Saudel’s impacts on Zhejiang and Fujian on August 28. At 10:00 LT (02:00 UTC) on September 4, NMC forecast Saudel’s residual circulation and outer cloud bands to produce local rainfall totals of 100–180 mm (4–7 inches) across parts of southern Hunan, southwestern Jiangxi and eastern Fujian. The forecast covered the period from 14:00 LT (06:00 UTC) on September 4 to 14:00 LT (06:00 UTC) on September 5. Saudel first made landfall near Kanmen in Yuhuan, Zhejiang, at approximately 08:05 LT on August 28, followed by a second landfall near Longwan in Wenzhou at approximately 09:10 LT. NMC stopped numbering the system at 17:00 LT on August 30 after it weakened inland. Saudel’s residual circulation subsequently moved into the northwestern South China Sea and redeveloped into a tropical depression at approximately 17:00 LT on August 31. It regained tropical-storm strength early September 1 before making its third landfall in China on September 3.

Hurricane Lowell reaches category 5 status, altering course towards Hawaii | Watch -  video -   On Wednesday, Hurricane Lowell escalated to a Category 5 storm, exhibiting maximum sustained winds of 160 mph while located approximately 445 miles south of Hilo, as reported by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. The storm underwent a remarkable transition from a 70 mph tropical storm to a formidable 160 mph cyclone in just about 30 hours, marking one of the fastest intensifications recorded in the region and becoming only the seventh Category 5 storm documented in the central Pacific. Meteorologists indicate that the storm's trajectory is shifting northward, with a potential sharp turn towards Hawaii expected late this weekend due to interactions with an upper-level weather system. The mayor of Honolulu is advising residents to start preparing, emphasizing that significant impacts could be felt as soon as next week, despite the islands having time before Lowell approaches. Disclosure: This video contains stock footage and content created or enhanced using AI-assisted tools. ai-generated.

3 hurricanes churn Pacific: Lowell could near Hawaii at major strength next week (WZTV) — The Pacific is seeing a surge of hurricane activity, with three named storms churning at the same time.Hurricane Lowell stands out as a strong system and is still categorized as a major hurricane while moving over warm waters that could keep its strength up through the end of the week. Lowell is heading west but is expected to turn north or north-northeast this weekend with the weakened mid-level ridge and could be near or just west of the westernmost Hawaiian Islands by Monday, possibly still holding major hurricane status. Hurricane Karina is also a major hurricane, but it should start to lose strength over the coming days as it moves over cooler waters and into drier air. Karina is on a west-northwest track, and forecast models take it away from the main Hawaiian Islands; it is expected to become post-tropical by Day 5 or possibly sooner.Hurricane Marie is getting better organized, with signs it could strengthen over the next day or so due to warm water and favorable wind conditions.Marie is moving west-northwest and should hold that path for the next two to three days, but its track could become less certain late this weekend if an upper-level system near the U.S. West Coast draws it north.Marie will probably start to weaken over the weekend as drier air moves in.

Category 4 Hurricane Lowell forecasted to curve north toward islands - (KHON2) — Lowell weakened from a Category 5 to a Category 4 hurricane, according to the 5 p.m. advisory issued Wednesday, Sep. 2, by the National Weather Service (NWS) Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu. Still, Lowell remains an extremely powerful hurricane.The most concerning part of the updated track is that Lowell is expected to take a sharp curve to the north as it approaches the islands. NWS explained that this is due to Lowell’s forecasted interaction with Hurricane Karina.“Those two storms are going to want to kind of come together. It’s what a low-pressure system is going to want to do dynamically, and that gives a lot of uncertainty to the forecast because we don’t know how strong Karina is going to be when it gets here. We don’t know exactly how strong Lowell is going to be when it gets out here, and the strength really matters as to how much they might interact,” said NWS Meteorologist Stephen Parker.In 1992, Hurricane Iniki made landfall on Kauai as it was pulled to the north in a similar fashion—though not by another tropical cyclone, but by an upper-level low-pressure system.“Iniki obviously left a whole lot of traumatic memories in people’s minds for good reason; it was a terrible storm. This storm is going to head on a path that could reproduce something like that,” said Parker. “By no means is that set in stone yet, but to take precautions now to start preparing, we think is a wise move.”  Kauai Mayor Derek Kawakami added, “Anybody that’s been through Hurricane Iniki, as you know, I have when I was 15 years old, and it was a big enough event that I have photographic memory of the sights and the sound of that hurricane, and so I think we tend to just take hurricane season seriously.”“Moving through now from recovery from Lala now into the potential of impact from Hurricane Lowell, we’re refreshing just as we ask the public to,” said Honolulu Department of Emergency Management Public Information Officer Molly Pierce. Although there is still uncertainty about Lowell’s path, city departments are already working together. Hurricane preparedness efforts include daily coordination calls and meetings, as well as checking supplies and streams, shared Pierce.“We know a lot of people have seen some gaps in their planning from this most recent storm. Perhaps their plan didn’t account for what they would do in a power outage for, say, a medical device and charging that device,” said Pierce. “So, thinking through those things that you may have learned from the last storm that you could put into practice for this one or any storm moving forward.”Although Kauai missed the worst of Hurricane Lala, this time, the island is closest to Hurricane Lowell’s projected path.“We’re just making sure that we get the necessary equipment into areas that we feel could be vulnerable,” said Kawakami, “but then the most important tool is communicating clearly and consistently with our people.”Officials urge residents across Hawaii to:

• Check and replenish emergency food, water, medications, and other supplies in emergency disaster kits
  • A 14-day supply of non-perishable food and one gallon of water per person per day are recommended
• Make sure flashlights, batteries, portable chargers and radios are working
• Review family emergency and communication plans
• Make sure vehicles have fuel and backup generators are ready to operate safely
• Check on kupuna, neighbors and others who may need assistance preparing
• Check conditions before venturing out for hiking, river or beach excursions
• Continue monitoring official forecasts from the National Weather Service and Central Pacific Hurricane Center.
• Sign up for county emergency alerts:
  • Kauai County
  • Honolulu County
  • Maui County
  • Hawaii County

Will hurricanes Lowell, Karina form a Fujiwhara effect? What to watch -— The Pacific can look enormous on a weather map, yet two storms can still get close enough to affect each other. When that happens, the storms can appear to dance around a shared point. Meteorologists call this the Fujiwhara effect. It sounds unusual, but there is a clear weather pattern behind it. KHON2.com turned to the National Weather Service to find out more on what this weather event is and what we all need to know as hurricanes Lowell and Karina make their way across the Pacific. Here’s what NWS said about the Fujiwhara effect and the current positions of Lowell and Karina. Category 4 Hurricane Lowell forecasted to curve north toward islands What is the Fujiwhara effect Two tropical storms in the Pacific can raise questions about how their paths may affect each other. When tropical cyclones and hurricanes move close enough together, their circulation can interact and change their movement. Meteorologists call this the Fujiwhara effect, and it can take several forms:

• Two storms may rotate around a shared point.
• A stronger storm can influence the movement of a weaker storm.
• Storms with similar strength can also move around each other before separating or merging.

NWS pointed to Hurricanes Hilary and Irwin in the eastern Pacific in 2017 as an example. The two storms collided and eventually merged before fading over the ocean. The term comes from Japanese meteorologist Sakuhei Fujiwhara, who studied the interaction between two rotating weather systems. The effect is now used to describe interactions between tropical cyclones and hurricanes. The Fujiwhara effect is important because the movement of one storm can affect the movement of another. That can make the storms more difficult to forecast when they come within a certain distance of each other and possibly more deadly. That raises a question for the Pacific storms Lowell and Karina: Will the two storms begin interacting in this way? NWS said they are tracking Lowell and Karina as separate storms. Their Sept. 2 outlook placed Lowell several hundred miles south southeast of Hawaii and Karina farther east in the Pacific. Forecasters are watching how the two storms may interact as they move across the Pacific. For now, there has been no official statement that Lowell and Karina are experiencing a Fujiwhara interaction.

RKI estimates 15 800 heat-related deaths, Germany records second-warmest summer since 1881 -    Youtube videos  The Robert Koch Institute estimated 15 800 heat-related deaths in Germany between April 6 and August 16, 2026 while the German Weather Service provisionally ranked the June–August period as the country’s second-warmest summer since records began in 1881. Germany’s seasonal mean reached 19.6°C (67.3°F), only 0.1°C (0.2°F) below the 2003 record. DWD placed the summer mean 3.3°C (5.9°F) above the 1961–1990 reference period and 2°C (3.6°F) above the warmer 1991–2020 reference period. Only summer 2003, with a national mean of 19.7°C (67.5°F), was warmer, exceeding the provisional 2026 mean by 0.1°C (0.2°F). RKI’s cumulative estimate covers calendar weeks 15–33, from April 6 through August 16, rather than the June–August meteorological summer alone. The institute estimated 15 800 heat-related deaths nationally and said the 2026 estimate remained incomplete when the report was issued on August 27. People aged 85 and older accounted for an estimated 7 960 deaths, while those aged 75–84 accounted for 3 910. These two age groups represented the largest share of estimated heat-related mortality. Heat-related mortality is not determined by counting death certificates that list heat as the underlying cause. RKI said heat directly causes death in some cases, including heatstroke, but most heat-related deaths involve a combination of heat exposure and existing medical conditions. RKI calculates the estimate from the difference between modeled deaths with and without heat. To model mortality without heat, the temperature input is capped at approximately 20°C (68°F). RKI’s model attributed approximately 9 600 of the estimated heat-related deaths to the exceptionally hot calendar week 26 in late June and about 4 000 to calendar weeks 31–33 from late July through mid-August. The institute separately estimated excess mortality of 20 500 deaths during calendar weeks 20–33, with a 95% prediction interval of 16 100–24 600. Excess mortality measures deaths above the number normally expected, while estimated heat-related mortality isolates the modeled effect of heat, meaning the two figures are not interchangeable. DWD calculated a national average of approximately 22 hot days with maximum temperatures of at least 30°C (86°F) and five very hot days reaching at least 35°C (95°F). The agency described that frequency as unprecedented in its provisional summer assessment. Möckern-Drewitz in Saxony-Anhalt reached 41.8°C (107.2°F) on June 27, setting a provisional national temperature record. During the following night, the temperature at Kubschütz in Saxony did not fall below 29.4°C (84.9°F), the highest nighttime minimum recorded in Germany. DWD provisionally calculated approximately 171 mm (6.73 inches) of precipitation nationwide, equivalent to about 72% of the 1961–1990 seasonal reference of 239 mm (9.41 inches). The provisional sunshine total reached approximately 779 hours, placing summer 2026 among Germany’s five sunniest summers since the series began in 1951. DWD said all figures remained provisional because not all measurements from its station network were available before publication. Data used for the final day of the meteorological summer were partly based on forecasts, while precipitation and sunshine totals may change following additional submissions and quality checks.

El Niño prompts drought alerts in El Salvador and Honduras, Panama declares national emergency - El Salvador declared a nationwide Red Alert for meteorological and agricultural drought on August 25, while Honduras expanded its drought Red Alert from 75 to 103 municipalities on August 26. Panama also declared a national state of emergency under Resolution No. 102-26 in response to El Niño-related risks, including drought, flooding and landslides. The measures come amid rainfall deficits, prolonged dry periods and increasing water stress as El Niño continues to strengthen. Honduras’ Secretariat of Risk Management and Contingencies (COPECO) expanded its drought Red Alert from 75 to 103 municipalities on August 26. The action followed a drought emergency declared on August 19. El Salvador’s Directorate General of Civil Protection declared its nationwide Red Alert after technical assessments by the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources (MARN) and the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock documented persistent rainfall irregularities. The declaration followed a 41% rainfall deficit in May and three meteorological drought episodes during 2026. The latest episode began on August 7 and produced up to 19 consecutive dry days at monitored locations. El Salvador also registered 14 temperature records during August, including a maximum of 43.9°C (111°F) at Santa Rosa de Lima. Civil Protection said the heat and rainfall deficit were increasing pressure on water availability, agricultural and livestock production, livelihoods and food security. MARN’s August–October climate outlook assigned a 70–90% probability of below-normal rainfall to the paracentral and eastern zones, 50–70% to the central zone and 40–50% to the western zone. Civil Protection ordered continued monitoring of rainfall accumulation, dry-period duration, soil moisture, river flows, water-source levels, crop conditions and food-security indicators. The national civil-protection system and its departmental and municipal commissions were activated to coordinate preparedness and response measures. Panama’s Council of Cabinet declared a broader national State of Emergency associated with El Niño under Resolution No. 102-26. Unlike the drought alerts in El Salvador and Honduras, Panama’s declaration covers existing flood impacts and the possibility of further flooding, landslides and drought in different parts of the country. The resolution authorizes preventive, mitigation and response measures. It also permits special emergency procurement through June 30, 2027. The Presidency said 11 watersheds were already experiencing water stress, with low river levels affecting hydroelectric facilities and drinking-water treatment plants. Other parts of Panama, particularly Bocas del Toro, had recorded above-normal rainfall and faced continued flooding and landslide risks. The Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology of Panama forecast rainfall deficits from October through December 2026 and from January through March 2027. The associated heat and rainfall effects are expected to continue through May 2027. Authorities said the forecast conditions could affect water resources, agriculture, livestock production and hydroelectric generation. Low lake and reservoir levels could also affect ship traffic and water availability for Panama Canal operations. The three government actions came as the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center reported on August 13 that El Niño was strengthening, with a greater than 90% probability of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026–27. NOAA also assigned a 69% probability that the October–December 2026 season would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events in its record dating to 1950, while cautioning that even an event of this magnitude does not guarantee typical impacts in every region.

El Niño forecast to become very strong by late 2026, raising extreme weather risks into 2027 - El Niño is firmly established in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific and is forecast to strengthen to very strong intensity before peaking toward the end of 2026, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on September 3. Forecasts from WMO Global Producing Centers indicate a nearly 100% probability that El Niño will persist through December 2026–February 2027, increasing the likelihood of major changes in rainfall and temperature patterns across many regions. Sea surface temperatures across the central-eastern equatorial Pacific have risen sharply. WMO reported that the Niño 3.4 anomaly averaged approximately +1.5°C (+2.7°F) during May-July 2026 and reached +2°C (+3.6°F) in July. Weekly Niño 3.4 anomalies increased to approximately +2.2°C to +2.6°C (+4°F to +4.7°F) between late July and mid-August, indicating continued intensification. WMO also reported subsurface ocean temperatures more than 8°C (14.4°F) above average in some areas during July and early August. The combined surface, subsurface and atmospheric signals, together with agreement among seasonal prediction systems, support continued strengthening and persistence into early 2027. “El Niño in Spanish means boy child – but it has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world. We are already seeing disruption and devastation from droughts and floods, and we expect these impacts to increase as El Niño intensifies,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. “This exceptional El Niño demands exceptional preparation and response,” she said. “El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up. Sea surface temperatures are rising, temperatures keep climbing, and the world is in the danger zone of extreme weather. The race now is between rising risks and our commitment to take climate action and protect people. We must win that race,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center maintained an El Niño Advisory on August 13 and gave a greater than 90% probability of a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27. NOAA reported July anomalies of +1.4°C (+2.5°F) in Niño 3.4, +1.7°C (+3.1°F) in Niño 3 and +2.9°C (+5.2°F) in Niño 1+2. Subsurface temperature anomalies reached +10°C (+18°F) at depth. Low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies extended from the western to east-central equatorial Pacific. Convection and rainfall were enhanced from the central to eastern Pacific and suppressed over Indonesia, indicating that the ocean and atmosphere were responding together as El Niño strengthened. NOAA assigned a 69% probability that the three-month Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) will reach at least +2.5°C (+4.5°F) during October–December 2026. The agency said that value would exceed previous El Niño events in its RONI record dating to 1950, but the threshold remains forecast rather than observed. The Center for Climate Systems Research and International Research Institute for Climate and Society (CCSR/IRI) reported a traditional Niño 3.4 seasonal anomaly of +1.51°C (+2.72°F) for May–July, a July monthly anomaly of +2.03°C (+3.65°F) and a weekly value of +2.7°C (+4.9°F) centered on August 12. The CCSR/IRI values are not directly interchangeable with CPC’s operational values because the products use different SST datasets and index methodologies. CCSR/IRI located subsurface temperature anomalies exceeding +8°C (+14.4°F) at depths of approximately 50–150 m (164–492 feet) across parts of the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. In its August 19 assessment, 25 of 26 models placed Niño 3.4 in the very strong category for October–December 2026, defined as an anomaly of at least +2°C (+3.6°F). Fifteen models forecast anomalies of at least +3°C (+5.4°F). WMO’s Global Seasonal Climate Update for September–November 2026 forecasts the seasonal-average Niño 3.4 SST ensemble-mean anomaly to reach approximately +3.6°C (+6.5°F), with the intensification trajectory expected to peak around November–December. These model counts indicate the level of agreement among the forecasts and are not separate probability estimates. Direct comparison between traditional Niño 3.4 SST anomaly measures and NOAA’s RONI forecast is limited because the products use different indices, datasets, averaging periods and climatological baselines. The traditional Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) uses a three-month running mean of sea surface temperature anomalies within the Niño 3.4 region. RONI subtracts the mean tropical-ocean SST anomaly from the Niño 3.4 anomaly and then applies a variance adjustment, reducing the influence of broader tropical-ocean warming. CCSR/IRI identifies its traditional Niño 3.4 measure as TONI, while NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center transitioned to RONI for official ENSO monitoring and prediction in February 2026. WMO forecasts an increased likelihood of above-normal temperatures across almost all land areas during September–November 2026, accompanied by rainfall patterns associated with the strong Pacific El Niño. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is also forecast, with the Dipole Mode Index expected to average +0.9°C (+1.6°F) during September–November. Sea surface temperatures in the North and South Tropical Atlantic are forecast to remain above normal. WMO said conditions in the Indian and Atlantic oceans could reinforce, weaken or modify El Niño-related regional patterns. It is worth noting that El Niño strength alone does not determine the severity of weather impacts in an individual country or region. Its effects vary by location and season and can be influenced by other oceanic and atmospheric conditions.

'Supersized' El Niño may become strongest ever recorded, UN says   (Reuters) - The El Niño weather phenomenon is set to ‌intensify further into 2027 and could be the strongest ever, raising risks of extreme weather into next year, the World Meteorological Organization said on Thursday. The U.N. weather agency said its forecasts showed a near 100% likelihood that El Niño would persist through February 2027, fuelled by exceptionally ​warm Pacific Ocean temperatures. This is the first time it has expressed such a degree of certainty, the ​WMO said. "If this trajectory continues, it may be stronger than anything since our monitoring began. So ⁠literally off the charts," WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo told a Geneva press conference. El Niño is a periodic warming of sea ​surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific caused by weakening trade winds. It occurs every two to seven years and tends to ​last up to 12 months, causing intense rains and droughts across Latin America. A very strong El Niño can significantly shift rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide, and fuel extreme weather, such as droughts and typhoons. While it is a naturally occurring phenomenon and not directly linked to fossil fuel-driven ​climate change, it can be intensified by warmer ocean temperatures, which are. "El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The ​science leaves no room for doubt: The planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up," said U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. Sample ‌Pacific ⁠Ocean temperatures in this year's El Niño - one of just four categorised in the top "very strong" bracket in records dating back to 1950 - are already more than 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal, the WMO said. The event has already had an impact on soft commodities in tropical areas, causing a severe food crisis across Central America's Dry Corridor. It is set ​to peak towards the end ​of this year, the WMO ⁠said in a statement. But its effects will continue into 2027 and are set to leave higher global temperatures next year in its wake, WMO officials said. "Normally after an El Niño ​event we tend to see a pulse in the global temperatures - a temporary one," Wilfran ​Moufouma Okia, the ⁠WMO's chief of climate prediction services, told reporters, referring to 2024, which was the hottest year so far. "2027 has the potential to be the warmest on record." The WMO said it was stepping up preparedness and early warning efforts in preparation to allow states ⁠to take ​early action, such as switching to drought-resistant crops in some places. "WMO is ​committed to working closely with partners across the United Nations and humanitarian system to provide the climate intelligence and insights needed to support disaster management and ​climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy and water resources," Saulo said.

Gulf Stream rapidly intensified after 2014, 31-year satellite record shows - A 31-year satellite altimetry record shows that the Gulf Stream east of about 75°W underwent rapid surface intensification beginning around 2014, shifted northward and became less meandering after a prolonged weaker period. The strengthened state persisted through December 2023, while the study linked the transition to changes in subtropical North Atlantic wind forcing and a spin-up of the subtropical gyre. Satellite observations from January 1993 through December 2023 captured pronounced interannual-to-decadal changes in the Gulf Stream between 79°W and 50°W. Researchers led by Shenfu Dong of NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory identified a weak phase from 2005 to 2014 followed by rapid surface intensification east of 75°W beginning around 2014. The work was published in Geophysical Research Letters on August 14, 2026. The Gulf Stream behaves differently along its path. West of about 75°W, where it flows as a constrained western boundary current, its position and speed were comparatively stable. After separating from the coast, the current becomes a free-flowing jet with larger variations in position and meandering. Mean surface geostrophic speed across the satellite record exceeded 1.7 m/s (3.8 mph) along the Florida coast and decreased downstream to below 1.0 m/s (2.2 mph) near 50°W. The strongest speed change occurred downstream of 75°W. During 2016–2023, the study found a mean surface-speed anomaly of about 0.14 m/s (0.31 mph). The value is an anomaly rather than the Gulf Stream’s total speed: the researchers calculated monthly anomalies after removing the 1993–2023 monthly climatology and filtered variability with periods shorter than one year. Faster conditions coincided with a more northerly and less variable Gulf Stream path. NOAA’s summary of the study describes a gradual southward shift and increasing instability from 1993 to 2011, followed from around 2014 by northward displacement, greater path stability and stronger downstream flow. Researchers also analyzed the difference in sea surface height across the current, ΔH, which serves as a proxy for Gulf Stream transport. Interannual variations in surface speed and ΔH were strongly correlated at r = 0.95 with p = 0.03, although the relationship is not exact because Gulf Stream speed also depends on the width of the current. Sea surface height required separate treatment because moving the Gulf Stream northward can change local sea level without representing an increase in current strength. During 2016–2023, positive sea surface height anomalies exceeded 0.30 m (0.98 feet) near the Gulf Stream core between 75°W and 69°W. The authors calculated that displacement of the current accounted for about 80% of the local increase in that sector. After removing the contributions from global-mean sea-level change and Gulf Stream displacement, the remaining sea surface height anomalies formed a dipole east of 75°W, with comparable magnitudes on both sides of the current. The authors said the pattern suggests that changes north and south of the Gulf Stream both contributed to the stronger cross-front sea surface height gradient associated with the intensified state. Changes were also transmitted downstream. Lagged correlations indicated downstream propagation of Gulf Stream speed variability, with anomalies in the 75°W–70°W sector preceding corresponding anomalies near 50°W by about one year. The wind-forced western boundary transport index reached its maximum correlation with Gulf Stream speed when the index led by one year, at r = 0.52 and p = 0.01. The authors linked the lag to ocean adjustment processes including westward-propagating Rossby waves. Atmospheric forcing over the subtropical North Atlantic provides one explanation for the observed transition. Sea-level-pressure and wind stress curl anomalies during 2016–2023 corresponded with a stronger Sverdrup gyre, while Gulf Stream speed was correlated with both the North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic Pattern at different lags. Sensitivity simulations with the University of Victoria Earth System Model also supported a role for wind forcing associated with those atmospheric patterns in Gulf Stream variability. A regional wind stress curl dipole centered on the Gulf Stream was correlated with surface speed at r = 0.60 with p = 0.01 at zero lag. The authors hypothesize that warming associated with Gulf Stream strengthening and northward displacement increases atmospheric boundary-layer instability, affecting near-surface winds and the regional wind stress curl. They state that fully coupled, high-resolution ocean-atmosphere modeling is needed to determine whether the observed atmospheric pattern represents a response to Gulf Stream thermal anomalies or a coupled air-sea feedback.

Federal judge upholds first state polluter pays recycling law -   -A federal judge on Thursday upheld Oregon’s plastic pollution and recycling program, the first court ruling on the legality of state laws designed to hold producers responsible for the cost of dealing with their waste. Judge Michael H. Simon of the U.S. District Court for the District of Oregon rejected arguments from the National Association of Wholesaler-Distributors in ruling that Oregon’s landmark extended producer responsibility, or EPR, program does not violate the Constitution. In his decision, Simon, an Obama appointee, called Oregon “a pioneer in waste prevention, reuse, and recycling legislation” that “continues to show innovative leadership toward solving serious local, national, and even international problems caused by plastic and other forms of waste and packaging pollution.” The ruling marks the first judicial validation of an approach that Democrat-led states are increasingly turning to as a way of holding plastics producers accountable for their single-use plastic and other waste. Seven states — Oregon, California, Colorado, Maine, Maryland, Minnesota and Washington state — currently have EPR laws on their books.   Oregon’s Plastic Pollution and Recycling Modernization Act, which took effect January 2022, was the first EPR law in the nation to take effect, requiring producers to join a “producer responsibility organization” and pay fees covering the end-of-life costs of their products. Like five of the other states with EPR schemes, Oregon handed implementation to the D.C.-based Circular Action Alliance.NAW, which lobbies for more than 30,000 wholesale distribution companies, sued Oregon last July, the first challenge of its kind. The group argued the law places excessive burdens on companies and unconstitutionally delegates regulatory power to the alliance, a private entity controlled by industry competitors. In February, Simon handed NAW an early win, blocking Oregon from enforcing the law against the group’s members while the case proceeded. NAW has since filed similar complaints against Colorado and California, where Republican attorneys general are leading litigation. Simon rejected both of NAW’s remaining claims, allowing the law to remain in effect.He found Oregon’s law does not violate the Commerce Clause because it treats in-state and out-of-state producers identically, and that challengers couldn’t show that the law posed a substantial burden to them.On the delegation claim, Simon found the Circular Action Alliance “plays an advisory role” while the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality retains ultimate decision-making authority.NAW said in a statement it “strongly disagrees with the district court’s decision,” and “is reviewing its options for next steps.”Katie Romano, spokesperson for Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, said the department “is aware” of the decision and will continue implementation.”Anja Brandon, the Ocean Conservancy’s director of plastics policy, said she’ll “be celebrating” the win.“This decision affirms that states have every right to innovate to solve the plastic pollution crisis,” Brandon said in a statement. “It is not only a victory in the fight to end plastic pollution, but a victory for our ocean and a great day to be an Oregonian.”

Beaumont New Ammonia Under ‘Strategic Review’: Woodside Energy CEO | RBN Energy -  Woodside Energy has placed its Beaumont New Ammonia facility (see map below) under strategic review and is evaluating its options for the site, the company said during its H1 2026 earnings presentation on August 25. As detailed in this week’s Hydrogen Billboard, CEO Liz Westcott said the company’s assets “must all compete for capital equally,” and that new energy opportunities must be supported by clear customer demands and commercial markets and compete for capital with other investment opportunities.  “Beaumont New Ammonia is a high-quality asset, and it is now in operation, and it is approaching important milestones over the course of 2026. The asset, though, was acquired in a different global environment to the one we are in today,” she said. “It is important, I think, to reflect the changes that we have had in the last 12 months, and that is why we have announced the strategic review of the asset. We are going to look at all options to determine the best value option for Woodside. There is no determined pathway today.”  Woodside acquired the project from OCI Global in August 2024 for $2.35 billion, citing expectations that global ammonia demand would double by 2050, with lower-carbon ammonia making up about two-thirds of total demand. The site was available and operating normally 92.2% of the time during Q2, following Woodside’s assumption of operational control from OCI Global at the end of Q1 2026, the company said during its quarterly earnings call in July. The site is only producing conventional (gray) ammonia currently. The start of lower-carbon ammonia production remains targeted for 2027, subject to the commissioning of Linde’s low-carbon hydrogen facilities and startup of ExxonMobil’s carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) infrastructure, including approval of the relevant CCS permitting process.Westcott said a disciplined approach to sustainability would support Woodside’s long-term resilience and value, which includes balanced and achievable climate targets that align with the pace of the global energy transition. She said the company’s Scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions-reduction targets remain unchanged, but that it has retired its Scope 3 targets. “These targets were established in a different market context and based on a different expected pace of the energy transition,” she said. “The reality is that markets for emerging lower carbon opportunities, including hydrogen, ammonia and carbon capture and storage, have developed more slowly than anticipated.”

Power plant endangerment repeal enters White House review - The White House is reviewing a new proposal to permanently end EPA’s regulation of power plants’ carbon emissions. The supplemental proposal entered White House review on Monday, according to the Office of Management and Budget’s website. It is expected to be released along with another rule to undo 2024 standards that required coal-fired and some new gas-fired power plants to capture and store most of their greenhouse gas emissions.EPA did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The draft would repeal not only the Biden-era rules, but EPA’s broader authority to regulate climate pollution from the power sector via the Clean Air Act. The power industry is the largest industrial source of greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S.The proposal is expected to mirror EPA’s repeal of the so-called endangerment finding. But it could also complicate arguments the oil industry and the Justice Department are making in a landmark case before the Supreme Court this fall that the Clean Air Act makes EPA the “primary regulator” of industrial greenhouse gas emissions. EPA issued a proposal last summer that aimed to bar future administrations from regulating the power sector for greenhouse gases. But the draft advanced arguments that contradicted a separate rule that EPA finalized in February that rescinded a key scientific finding that greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles endanger public health and welfare. It’s unclear when EPA will issue the repeal package. Utilities have been anxious for it to finalize a rollback of the carbon capture and sequestration requirements, but the agency might hold off until after the Supreme Court hears oral arguments in Suncor v. Boulder on Oct. 5.

Industry asks Supreme Court to scuttle Biden soot standards -   -The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and other industry groups asked the Supreme Court on Friday to review a lower court’s decision upholding a Biden-era rule tightening national standards for soot.  The coalition filed a petition asking the high court to reverse a June decision by the U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, which found that EPA had authority to issue new rules for particulate matter “off-cycle” that were more stringent than those finalized in the first Trump term.The Biden EPA revised the so-called National Ambient Air Quality Standards for fine particulate matter outside of the Clean Air Act’s usual five-year review cycle. EPA under President Donald Trump had opted to keep the rules unchanged in 2020. Fine particulate matter has been linked to respiratory and cardiovascular ailments and premature death. Sources of the pollution include coal-fired power plants and tailpipe exhaust. Industry groups say the agency didn’t weigh the cost of tighter standards. The petitioners, which included the National Association of Manufacturers, American Chemistry Council and National Mining Association, argued that EPA had used the “off-cycle” timing of the revision to justify skipping a “thorough review” of the science prior to the rulemaking. The agency should also have considered costs and other practical considerations, they said, before tightening the standards.The petition notes that the NAAQS for particulate pollution has the potential to impact sectors across the economy. “Accordingly, a single change to a NAAQS can impose enormous regulatory costs,” it states. “It can push areas across the country out of compliance; force states to devise multiple, stringent, and complex state regulatory regimes … and immediately impose stricter permitting requirements for all manner of construction in much of the country.” NAM’s chief legal officer Linda Kelly said the rule could make it harder for manufacturers to “obtain permits, expand operations, modernize facilities and invest in communities across the country.”The D.C. Circuit heard arguments over the Biden rule in late 2024, before President Donald Trump returned to the White House. After the change in administration, the Trump administration asked the court to put the case on hold while it reviewed the Biden standards. It later informed the D.C. Circuit that it planned to repeal and replace the standards, but the court declined to hold off.

A huge AI datacenter is planned near Mar-a-Lago. The Everglades could pay the price  - About 16 miles (26km) west of the Mar-a-Lago estate on President Donald J Trump Highway, near the northern edge of the Florida Everglades, developers have proposed a hyperscale datacenter on a 202-acre (82-hectare) parcel of land surrounded by water. Local environmentalists warn that the proposed 600MW datacenter in western Palm Beach county could damage the wetlands, which the federal government and the state of Florida have spent a combined $6bn to restore after decades of drainage and development.One concern is that the datacenter could exacerbate an existing issue of toxic bacterial blooms in a water system which has already been stressed by drought, fertilizer runoff and warm water temperatures. In recent summers, the bright blooms of blue-green algae have covered nearly half of Lake Okeechobee, which feeds into the Everglades. The cyanobacteria blooms produce a toxin known as microcystin, which can make people and animals sick and contaminate drinking water. On 30 July the Florida department of health in Palm Beach county issued a health alert about cyanobacteria presence in the lake. Reinaldo Diaz grew up in Palm Beach county and founded Lake Worth Waterkeeper, a non-profit dedicated to protecting the watershed. He said waste heat from the proposed datacenter, called Project Tango, could increase the water temperatures in the surrounding watershed, putting the Florida Everglades further at risk of toxic bacterial blooms. “Our watershed is really complex,” Diaz said. “Ours is more like a spiderweb. That’s why the impacts would be far reaching.” North-east of the proposed Project Tango site, the habitat changes quickly. Beneath a canopy of bald cypress and native palm trees, the Loxahatchee River winds through one of the few surviving remnants of the northern Everglades. During the Guardian’s recent visit the buzz of dog-day cicadas overwhelmed the distant hum of traffic. Though the Everglades once stretched much farther north, water still circulates through this interconnected landscape through canals, sugarcane fields and grassy waters to surrounding lakes and marshes.  Diaz’s environmental concerns, like many, are linked to the amount of electricity a 600MW datacenter could consume, enough to generate enormous amounts of heat. Based on US Energy Information estimates of residential electricity use, at peak capacity a 600MW datacenter could use as much power as half a million US homes. The high energy use of datacenters can also mean costly upgrades to the power grid, which can drive up electricity costs for households. Earthjustice attorney Christina Reichert is representing neighbors with the Western Palm Beach Community Alliance in opposition to Project Tango. The group has challenged the developers’ efforts to convert a previously approved 2016 plan for warehouses and a server farm on the light industrial site into a hyperscale datacenter. Reichert said a hyperscale datacenter could have offsite water, air and sound impacts not covered by light industrial use zoning. “One of the concerns we had about this location is the risk of increasing the heat in this area because it could lead to algal blooms in that canal that could compromise drinking water and Everglades restoration,” Reichert said. Last month President Trump downplayed the concerns of datacenter neighbors at a press conference to double down on his non-binding pledge for datacenter developers to bear their own electricity costs. “You have to convince your community how great these things [are]. You can’t fight it. You have to go with it,” he said. But Sue Ellen Loyzelle, who lives in the planned community of Arden next door to the Project Tango site and is a founding member of Western Palm Beach Community Alliance, said regulations needed to be in place to reduce the potential effects to communities. “We don’t want our bills to go up, but it’s more than that,” she said. “What is all of this going to do?”  At a Palm Beach county zoning last month, residents spoke about the proximity of the proposed Project Tango datacenter to a local elementary school (about 1,200 feet). They said they were concerned about the potential noise, higher traffic, heat pollution, lower property values and higher energy bills that the project could bring. After more than 12 hours of testimony, commissioners voted 5-1 to deny an expansion of the proposed datacenter. Still, two more administrative applications from the developers that could add square footage to the datacenter remain on the table. “There’s nowhere in Palm Beach county where it would be acceptable to put one of these,” Diaz said. “But the place they are choosing is egregious.”The proposed Project Tango site is across the street from a pump station that serves as the first step in pushing freshwater to the southern Everglades. While water use has been a major concern with datacenters, the applicant for the project, PBA Holdings, Inc, says this 600MW facility would be different. At the Palm Beach county commissioners zoning hearing in July, project manager Ernie Cox said that the proposed datacenter would use a closed-loop cooling system that recirculates water, which could reduce the project’s water consumption. But Diaz said heat generated by the facility would still need to go somewhere and even a few degrees increase in temperature could fuel bacterial blooms in nearby waterways that are connected to the Everglades and nearby drinking water systems. Emerging research suggests that even much smaller datacenters can increase downwind air temperature by as much as 2C.Many of the ingredients for bacterial blooms, like phosphorus and nitrogen, already exist in nearby canals from decades of agricultural runoff from nearby farmland, where sugarcane is the dominant crop. Even warming the water up a couple degrees could be like adding fuel to the fire, Diaz said.Green algae blooms are seen at the Port Mayaca lock and dam on Lake Okeechobee in July 2018 in Port Mayaca, Florida. Photograph: Joe Raedle/Getty Images A health and safety assessment commissioned by PBA Holdings acknowledges that the datacenter could heat the air 1C to 2C (2F to 4F) around the cooling equipment, but dismisses concerns that the heat would reach the nearby community and school, explaining that prevailing winds would carry the heat in the opposite direction. The assessment doesn’t address the risk for toxic bacterial blooms. In regulatory filings, PBA Holdings reported spending $20m on county approvals and ensuring the site has the power reliability for data and information processing. The developers say they chose the site because of its proximity to the largest natural gas power plant in the United States, the West County Energy Center, operated by Florida Power & Light Company.

‘An imperfect solution’ gains traction in data center fight – Democratic governors have a new message for data center developers amid community backlash: Cut a deal. Community benefit agreements are increasingly appearing in state strategies for handling the data center boom. In recent months, three Rust Belt governors — Pennsylvania’s Josh Shapiro, Illinois’ JB Pritzker and Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer — have called on project developers to enter into legal agreements with communities that can cement pollution limits, hiring commitments and local investment promises. “My message to data center developers is clear: if you can’t agree to our strict requirements and get the community where you want to build to say ‘yes,’ you’re not going to have the Commonwealth’s support either,” Shapiro said in a statement when he signed an executive order last month that features CBAs. “These are some of the biggest companies in the world — they can afford to be good neighbors, follow the rules, and do this right.”CBAs first cropped up 25 years ago, when a coalition of Los Angeles community groups hammered out a deal with the developers of the Staples Center. That first-ever CBA traded promises of jobs and local investment for community support that helped secure city subsidies. Since then, communities across the U.S. have used versions of the legal agreement to secure economic benefits from a variety of developments.Policymakers are now mulling mandates for such agreements. Shapiro signed an executive order last month ordering his state’s Department of Environmental Protection to only review permit applications for data center developers that have agreed to sign a CBA with their local community, among other requirements. Otherwise, DEP will not begin review until after all local approvals, including for zoning and land use, are secured.The move was the latest sign that Shapiro, a likely 2028 presidential contender, has gone from a data center cheerleader to a vocal skeptic. He’s not alone. Both Democrats and Republicans are grappling with how to address a growing public backlash to the energy- and water-guzzling facilities, which are cropping up faster than political leaders and regulators can keep up.CBAs appeal to moderate Democratic governors who are scrambling to address data center blowback without alienating the tech giants they hope can provide a much-needed boost to their local economies. But even progressives who support moratoriums on data centers, like Michigan Senate Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed, have referenced CBAs as a way to protect communities from data centers’ possible impacts.Abre’ Conner, director of the NAACP’s Center for Environmental and Climate Justice, said organizers of the group’s Stop Dirty Data Centers campaign quickly realized that some projects can’t be stopped by advocacy efforts — no matter how fervently communities oppose them. CBAs can be “a tool in communities’ toolboxes” during negotiations when data center developments turn out to be inevitable, Conner said. Experts say that the legal agreements are far from a cure-all. So far, only one community seems to have cut a deal with a data center developer.The Data Center Coalition also argues that the vast majority of its members— including the likes of Google and Amazon — have voluntarily invested in communities beyond the jobs they create, like filling school budget gaps. Mandating CBAs before zoning or permitting, as some states are considering, could create delays and drive developments away, said Brad Tietz, the group’s director of government affairs in the Midwest. But some politicians see CBAs as a stop-gap solution, providing relief for communities and serving as a model for responsible developers before other regulations are set in stone. That’s the idea behind a package of bills that Michigan state senators unveiled in June. The legislation, backed by Whitmer, would require local governments to reach a CBA with developers before moving forward with zoning approvals.“Community benefits agreements will not solve all of the problems, but if you can put it together with strong regulations on data centers and the entire regulatory framework, then I do think that we’re in a stronger position to have members of our community feel that they are being heard right now,” said Michigan state Sen. Darrin Camilleri (D), assistant majority leader and the package’s primary sponsor.

Second Largest US Grid Operator Proposes Reliability Rules For Data Centers  - The Midcontinent Independent System Operator - the second largest US grid operator after PJM Interconnection - on Friday proposed a set of requirements large loads must meet before they can connect to the grid, including ramping and ride-through specifications.The “interconnection reliability requirements” framework aims to improve MISO’s visibility into large load “characteristics and behavior, support reliable planning and operational decision-making, and establish scalable and technically justified expectations proportional to demonstrated reliability risk,” the grid operator said in its filing with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. The proposal is a part of MISO’s response to FERC’s mid-June “show cause” orders requiring major grid operators to set rules that meet certain criteria for adding data centers and other large loads to the grid. MISO said it plans to make additional proposals by a Nov. 16 deadline. MISO’s proposal follows similar actions at the Electric Reliability Council of Texas and the PJM Interconnection aimed at setting reliability standards for large loads after several incidents where data centers suddenly tripped offline, raising concerns about grid stability.On average, electric demand was relatively flat between 2009 and 2024, growing by about 0.5% a year, MISO told FERC. Now, the grid operator expects 1% to 2% annual growth through 2044, with higher growth rates in the near term, according to MISO, which runs the grid and wholesale power markets from Louisiana to Minnesota. MISO’s proposal defines “large loads” as those larger than 50 MW, and “computational loads” as large loads that include at least 25 MW of demand from information technology equipment, such as servers, storage and networking hardware.The separate computational load classification will allow MISO to target certain requirements just to data centers, the grid operator said.“Computational loads may exhibit rapid and coordinated changes in demand, significant power-electronic behavior, and distinct responses to transmission system disturbances,” MISO said.MISO’s proposed reliability framework sets requirements for its transmission customers that take service on behalf of large loads. It covers four main areas:

• Visibility requirements.  To improve MISO’s visibility into large loads on its system, transmission customers must provide MISO with basic information and modeling data on large load facilities, according to the proposal. They must also provide real-time and day-ahead load forecasts for the facilities. The information is needed “to support planning studies, operational assessments, and accurate representation of large loads behavior and system impacts,” MISO said.
• Phasor Measurement Unit requirements. The PMU requirements set monitoring expectations for computation loads through high-resolution, time-synchronized measurements, according to MISO. “PMU data provides MISO with greater visibility into facility behavior during system disturbances and rapid operating changes, supporting model validation, performance verification, disturbance analysis, and identification of potential dynamic interactions with the transmission system,” MISO said.
• Ramp requirements. MISO said its proposed ramp requirements address the rate at which computational loads may increase or decrease electric use during stable-state transitions. “Managing rapid changes in demand helps reduce real-time supply-demand imbalances, sudden change in transmission power flows, and associated operational impacts, while supporting more reliable system operation,” MISO said.
• Ride-through requirements. The proposed measures set minimum disturbance performance requirements for computational loads during voltage and frequency disturbances to reduce the risk of unnecessary disconnection or customer-initiated rapid reductions in demands during system events, MISO said.

MISO’s proposal includes grandfathering provisions to provide certainty to existing and nearly complete commercial arrangements for large loads. MISO asked FERC to let its proposal take effect on Dec. 4. MISO plans to file additional large load-related proposals, including for additional transmission products and associated study processes, protections against cost shifts and the treatment of generation service to “electrically proximate” large loads, MISO said.

AI's natural gas addiction could be deadly for Ohio's communities - Ohio Capital Journal - Ohio Capital Journal  -  Data centers are notorious energy hogs. With each hyperscale data center using as much energy as an entire city, they’re polluting surrounding areas, straining grids, and raising electric rates nationwide. This is creating a backlash, with 70 percent of Americans saying they oppose building a data center near them.Companies have proposed a solution that sounds good on the surface: data centers bringing their own power. If they use their own “behind the meter” energy, tech companies can get data centers running faster without increasing transmission or generation costs for other consumers. But these dedicated power sources almost always run on natural gas — a polluting fossil fuel. Behind the meter natural gas is projected to account for 40% of all data centers’ power by 2030. For example, Meta recently built a massive data center in New Albany, Ohio, powered by 400MW of dedicated natural gas turbines — enough energy to power over 300,000 homes. Since there’s a shortage of gas turbines for power plants, tech companies are turning to any gas turbines they can get, many of which are far less efficient and more polluting,  and often paired with backup diesel generators, which are even worse. A study commissioned by the Piedmont Environmental Council in Virginia highlights the hazards communities face. It found that a single facility, the VA2 data center in Loudoun County, could inflict $53 million to $99 million per year in health-related damages in the surrounding community from increased deaths and hospitalizations. Despite these alarming findings, most approved and proposed gas turbine plants to power data centers are even larger. Just imagine what that means for pollution and health impacts nationwide — particularly in states like Ohio, which is fast-tracking these plants.Picture the damage to our air, water, and land from increased natural gas fracking, pipelines, and methane leaks. Or the more extreme storms, wildfires, and droughts from climate change caused by burning fossil fuels.On top of that, consumers will still pay more for energy. The increased demand for natural gas from these behind the meter facilities will likely drive up the price of natural gas for all households.But there’s a better way to power A.I. data centers. China, the leading U.S. competitor on A.I., is increasingly powering its data centers with renewable energy instead of fossil fuels. While there are legitimate concerns around China’s A.I. policies overall, the country is planning to power these centers with at least 80 percent clean energy, even while doubling their energy use, by 2030.Big Tech is shelling out hundreds of billions of dollars on data center infrastructure. They should spend some of those billions to drive the use of renewable energy, pairing wind and solar with battery storage to provide 24/7 energy.They know this can be done because they’re already doing it. Google is building a data center in Minnesota powered by 1.6 GW of solar and wind with 300 MW of battery storage. And Amazon is building a 1.2 GW solar and battery storage facility in Oregon to power a data center.In states that allow for virtual power plants — distributed networks of home batteries, rooftop solar panels, electric vehicle chargers that are coordinated via software to act like a power plant — companies could also purchase power from residents and cover the cost of people installing their own solar and battery storage, drawing any excess generated power to meet peak demand.For the sake of our communities, the United States must be a leader in powering A.I. with renewable energy.

Hope and concern swirl for Ohioans around ‘world’s largest datacenter’  On a winding road tucked away behind forests in the Appalachian foothills of southern Ohio is where OpenAI, Nvidia and Japanese investors are set to spend $500bn on one of the largest artificial intelligence datacenters on the planet.  Last March, the energy secretary, Chris Wright, the commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick and a host of Japanese and other dignitaries briefly descended on Piketon to enthusiastically break ground on a project to build 8GW worth of AI computing power.  SB Energy, a subsidiary of Japanese bank SoftBank Group Corp, will own and operate the project with OpenAI signing a 20-year lease with the company to use the computing capacity delivered by the site. OpenAI would deploy Nvidia AI computing infrastructure at the datacenter, which will open in 2028. To meet its major energy demands, a natural gas plant would be built nearby, infrastructure expected to be paid for by Japanese money through a $33bn investment. However, the project has fueled concern from environmental groups, with part of it situated on a decommissioned uranium enrichment site that operated for nearly 60 years until 2001. For decades, communities in Pike county have blamed the department of energy-run facility, known locally as the “A-Plant”, for fueling above-average cancer rates and a host of other health issues. In 2019, a local middle school was forced to close after high levels of radiation were recorded in the building.  The project is in large part a consequence of the Trump administration’s tariff and reshoring efforts: the government of Japan in July 2025 agreed to invest $550bn in the US in exchange for lowering tariffs on Japanese products entering the US. America is Japan’s biggest trade partner. However, a new administration could prevail in Washington after the 2028 presidential election and it could be one that could end Trump’s tariffs and consequently erase any motivation for Japanese investment in the project. That is not lost on Spencer.“But this is part of Japan’s deal – if you don’t put tariffs on us, we’ll spend money here [is Japan’s motivation],” he says. “So anytime it’s a political football like that, it’s subject to change, whether you support Trump or not.” Datacenters and their electricity and water needs have created a lightning rod of anger for communities across America. In July, the state of New York announced a pause in permitting the development of hyperscale datacenters, the first state in the country to do so.But the allure of huge sums of money is hard to ignore in Pike county, a part of America where the poverty rate, at over 19%, is almost double the national level.The project has promised to generate 35,000 construction jobs and 2,500 long-term, operating jobs respectively, with the datacenter expected to take up about 640 acres (260 hectares), or an area about three-fourths the size of New York City’s Central Park.  “Since the [enrichment] plant closed, people have been wondering where the jobs will come from,” says Spencer.“Pike county certainly can’t handle that alone,” he says of the estimated tens of thousands of construction workers expected to descend on the area over the next six years.Environmentalists, however, say there are a host of issues with the plan.Creating what would be the country’s largest natural gas power plant could see millions of pounds of noxious chemicals released into the air.Flaring produces huge volumes of carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides.“As one of the largest natural gas facilities ever proposed, the greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution associated with a project of this size represents an astronomical contribution to climate change, not to mention the public health risks associated with the air pollution created by natural gas combustion,” says Carol Kauffman, the chief executive officer of the Ohio Environmental Council.“There are also upstream impacts, too, with fracking wells and methane leakage from pipelines.”  The US Energy Information Administration estimates that in 2022, “CO2 emissions from burning natural gas for energy accounted for about 35% of total US energy-related CO2 emissions”. What’s more, local leaders suggest that during the construction phase up to 2m gallons of water may be required for waste purposes. Residents, including Spencer, have previously voiced opposition to a $650m waste disposal facility at the site, where low-level radioactive and other materials from the disassembled uranium-enrichment plant have been buried. Many are concerned that leaching, over time, could see hazardous waste enter the aquifer underground.Project managers, however, say that has been taken into account. “SB Energy performs thorough site reviews and due diligence for each of our infrastructure projects, including soil sampling,” a SB Energy spokesperson told the Guardian.“SB Energy has committed to paying for accelerated cleanup and remediation at the site.”Headquartered in Redwood City, California, SB Energy has said that Ohio ratepayers won’t have to pay into the cost for connecting the facility to the local electricity grid, and that additional electricity produced at the natural gas plant would go back onto the local grid, helping reduce costs for local customers.Many locals support any effort that would hasten funding for safer use and storage of the radioactive material that dots the site, which covers 6 sq miles, or almost 4,000 acres.For its part, OpenAI announced this month plans to “invest $40m in a community grant fund supporting priorities identified by local residents” in Pike county. It also plans to give college students across Ohio a $100 credit to use one of its ChatGPT AI tools.  But all this money being pumped into a community where the median household income is $41,313 or 40% less than the Ohio figure, could set off a wealth gap between land and property owners and everyone else.Locals say SB Energy is actively buying up large tracts of land, a move that has reset the local property market. A report filed by SB Energy with the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency says part of the project would be located on more than 1,000 acres of private land immediately adjacent to the former enrichment facilityAnd at the time of writing, SB Energy had posted just four jobs based in Piketon. On the streets of Piketon, several residents in the village of about 2,200 people declined to comment on the project due to having no information about it.Dawn Winters, who runs several local gas stations, says her business is likely to benefit from the project.“I think it’s going to be a good thing for businesses like mine,” she says.“But on the other hand, we are seeing rent prices go up already. A friend of mine had to sell their land [to the project] and relocate. People are already needing affordable housing.”

A Village in Southern Ohio Is Bucking the Data Center Backlash. Why? -On Monday, August 17, OpenAI signed a 20-year lease agreement for a data center in the small southern Ohio town of Piketon, population 2,300. Piketon is roughly 50 miles south of Columbus, and its data center will likely be the largest in the world. The 10-gigawatt facility will consume enough electricity to power seven million homes. Given the growth of “no data centers in my backyard” populist backlash, one might expect a deal this size to have spurred mass opposition from local residents. However, when Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick declared the Piketon project “the largest bet on a construction facility ever made in history,” Ohioans readily “embraced” or “welcomed” the development. Why?The proposed PORTS-Pike Technology Campus, as its developers have christened the site, takes advantage of the least utilized resource in America’s race to build data centers: brownfields. Brownfields, as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency defines them, are properties that often contain hazardous substances, pollutants, or other contaminants that are hard to clean up. Examples include abandoned factories, warehouses, air strips, and other industrial sites. Our best estimates point to between 450,000 and 1 million brownfields in the U.S. As the figure below suggests, it’s highly likely that you live near one, or pass it by on a regular basis.In July 2025, Trump signed an executive order to streamline permitting for data centers on federal lands — including brownfields. The PORTS-Pike data center is the first of its kind on brownfields held by the Department of Energy (DOE). The success or failure of OpenAI’s data center in Piketon will determine whether AI companies and the federal government can work together to create a better path forward for America’s data center buildout.OpenAI’s data center will be built by SoftBank 3,777-acre plot of federal land where the United States once produced its bomb-grade uranium.1The Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant in Piketon was one of three uranium enrichment plants the U.S. operated throughout the Cold War. Since the plant closed in 2001, the DOE has evacuated toxic waste and managed the site. Now, OpenAI and its partners plan to finish the cleanup and thrust the Portsmouth site, once again, onto the high-tech production frontier reshaping the American economy, geopolitics, and everyday life alike.Portsmouth’s past, and the economic vibrancy and dignified work it buoyed, helps explain why Ohioans support the data center today. “We dream big, but I don’t know that anybody could dream this big,” Steve Shepherd, head of a local organization titling land for the project, told reporters. “I think this is a model for the country.”To see what he means — and what it would take for him to be right — go back to the first time the country asked Piketon to build the infrastructure of an age.In August 1952 the Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) chose a stretch of flat Scioto River farmland in Pike County as the site of a $1.2 billion plant to enrich uranium — the third and newest node in the complex enrichment infrastructure that built the Cold War arsenal and fueled American power plants. The New York Times announced the decision on page one beneath a headline promising “3 Towns to Be Leveled”; the story beneath it was quieter, recording some 50 farm families to be resettled with the AEC’s help. Residents were assured the plant would pose “no more hazards than an average industry.” Against that assurance, they weighed 17,000 jobs and took the wager.2 It is a bet Piketon is weighing again today. What rose from the cornfields was a labor-intensive and local “city of knowledge” in America’s nuclear infrastructure. At the Portsmouth plant, engineers put the physics of uranium enrichment to work in three windowless buildings, each a mile and a half end to end, where uranium gas was blasted through fine barriers 4,020 times, separating usable U-235 from dross.3 Electricity powered that process. A new utility, the Ohio Valley Electric Corporation, was chartered for the sole purpose of powering the plant. It filed what was then “the largest financing project ever presented to the Government for its approval,” and built two coal plants for a single customer. The Ohio Valley Electric Corporation provided 1,950 megawatts around the clock — a quarter more power than all of New York City drew, the Wall Street Journal marveled.4   The natural gas complex SoftBank is building at the same site today recreates this midcentury arrangement. Sam Sapirie, who ran operations at another enrichment plant in Oak Ridge, made the hope for nuclear infrastructure clear for all Americans: “We are creating wealth here, treasure worth more than all the gold at Fort Knox … It doesn’t rust or rot or go out of style.”5

Massive AI data center complex eyes buyouts, 'record speed' in southern Ohio -  Columbus Dispatch. SoftBank exec calls Piketon AI complex 'World's largest construction project' (paywalled; details via Google: SoftBank and SB Energy executives, alongside U.S. federal officials, have described the massive 10-gigawatt AI and energy campus in Piketon, Ohio, as the "world's largest construction project, period". [1, 2] The project is taking shape on a 3,700-acre plot at the former Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant site in Pike County. Key details of the undertaking include: [1, 2]

• The Scale: Designed to reach a 10-gigawatt data center capacity paired with a massive 9.2-gigawatt natural gas power plant (and potential small modular nuclear reactors). [1, 2]
• The Partners: Developed by SoftBank's SB Energy in collaboration with the U.S. Department of Energy, OpenAI, and Nvidia. [1]
• The Investment & Jobs: Billed as a multidecade project with overall investments potentially scaling toward $500 billion, projected to pull in roughly 35,000 peak construction jobs. [1, 2]
• The Timeline: Construction is advancing at record speed with initial phases targeted to come online around 2028. [1, 2, 3]

Massive OH Project Has Its Turbines; Changes the Utica Gas Math  - Marcellus Drilling News -- A pile of poster boards in a YMCA gymnasium is not usually where you find the most important number in a $33 billion project. But on Aug. 27, at the Pike County YMCA in Waverly, Ohio, an SB Energy executive told a Columbus Dispatch reporter something that ought to get every Utica producer’s attention: the turbines are already bought. Not ordered. Not “in negotiations.” Bought — for the first phase of what will be the largest gas-fired power plant in American history.

Landowners Take Note: Data Center Buyouts Are Not Royalty Checks -Marcellus Drilling News -  At the Aug. 27 open house for the Piketon power project, an SB Energy poster showing an aerial view of the site drew the biggest crowd in the gym. It wasn’t the environmental impact board or the electricity charts. It was the map — because it showed people their own houses. The Columbus Dispatch was in the room. What its reporter found is a story MDN readers are going to see repeated across Ohio over the next decade, and it is worth understanding clearly before it lands in your county and before you get a knock on your door asking if you want to sell.

Yet another way that data centers put enormous costs on everyday Ohioans: Today in Ohio --- Ohioans are paying for $1.6 billion in transmission lines for the power-sucking demands of new data centers.  And energy companies can legally make money on the new electricity transmission projects they build.We’re talking about how regular Ohioans are subsidizing data centers and energy companies on Today in Ohio.

Another $1.6 billion cost for Ohioans for all those data centers - cleveland.com -The century-old bargain behind America’s utility system is pretty straightforward: everyone chips in for the power grid because everyone benefits from it. It’s the same logic that built the interstate highway system — even if you never drive a particular stretch of road, you help pay for it because it keeps the whole economy moving.Today in Ohio podcast hosts said Monday that tech companies are abusing that longstanding communal commitment to get Ohioans to pay $1.6 billion to assist data centers being built here.Ohio utilities have told state regulators they need $1.6 billion to build high-voltage transmission lines and substations to serve a handful of massive new data center customers, not the general public. The cost is being spread across all ratepayers.“This is a century old bargain,” host Laura Johnston said. “Basically, everyone pays for the power grid that benefits everyone.”Host Chris Quinn noted that Ohio does not have a growing population. The only reason ratepayrs now have to pay that gigantic sum is to power data centers, which have almost no benefit to Ohio. Ratepayers will empty their pockets so tech companies can collect billions in profit.The problems go beyond who’s paying. Ohio utilities aren’t required to seek competitive bids when choosing contractors to build this infrastructure. As Johnston put it, “There’s no requirement for them to get bids and choose the lowest bidder to build this stuff. So they could choose whoever they want and then charge us and they make a profit on it.”By law, utilities are allowed to earn a return on top of the base project cost — which means ratepayers fund both the construction and the profit margin for companies like FirstEnergy on top of it. The oversight gaps are just as striking, according to reporting by Anna Staver. PJM, the regional grid operator covering Ohio and 12 other states, doesn’t examine supplemental power requests at the local level. The Public Utilities Commission of Ohio doesn’t independently assess whether the projects are necessary or whether cheaper alternatives exist. Independent estimates suggest that requiring competitive processes could reduce costs by 30 percent. That possibility isn’t even being explored.Meanwhile, most of the original deals that brought data centers to Ohio were wrapped in non-disclosure agreements. Johnston pointed out that many local governments don’t fully understand the agreements made on their behalf. “If this were all out in the open, that would be a very different story,” she said. “And then people would be allowed to be heard. And it’s their government, this is the people’s government. They should get to decide.”Quinn tied it back to the political decisions that set all of this in motion — leaders who recruited data centers with secret incentives without asking whether the grid could support them, and who left ratepayers to absorb the cost of finding out it couldn’t.The answer to who pays isn’t complicated. It’s all of us. Listen to the conversation here.

What Ohio communities can gain from data center deals - — As data centers expand across Ohio, communities are weighing the impact of construction, land use and increased demand for power against the potential economic benefits. Greg Lawson, a senior fellow at The Buckeye Institute, said local leaders should negotiate those benefits before construction begins. “Communities that negotiate very well with the data centers when they come into a community can get a ton of benefits,” Lawson said. “This is in terms of property taxes or other sorts of things like payments that go into the local community.” The Buckeye Institute recently co-authored a report examining Ohio’s data center build-out. Lawson pointed to New Albany as one Ohio community that negotiated well. However, he said smaller communities may need help from development or legal experts to negotiate their own terms. To show what those agreements can mean over time, Lawson pointed to Loudoun County, Virginia. Buddy Rizer, executive director of Loudoun Economic Development, said in a written response that data centers occupy less than 3% of the county’s land but generate more than $1 billion in annual revenue, funding nearly one-third of its budget. Loudoun County already has over 43 million square feet of operational data center space. “And what they’ve been able to do there is actually lower property taxes for residents who live there because they’re obtaining so much property tax from the data centers,” Lawson said. Since 2012, Loudoun County’s property tax rate has fallen from about $1.29 to roughly 81 cents per $100 of assessed value. County officials estimate that saves the average homeowner between $3,000 and $4,000 each year. The revenue also helps fund schools, roads and other community services. Over 15,000 jobs are directly or indirectly connected to the industry, including construction, support work and high-skill technical positions. Loudoun County’s approach is now changing as the industry continues to grow. After years of development, county officials said they are no longer proactively recruiting data centers. Instead, the county is managing future growth through zoning, infrastructure planning, buffers and stronger protections for residents. For Ohio communities earlier in the development process, Lawson said the question is not only how much investment data centers bring. It is also whether residents share in the benefits and whether local rules protect them as the industry grows.

WV Treasury: 2 Data Centers Would Yield $103M/Year in Taxes -- Marcellus Drilling News - West Virginia State Treasurer Larry Pack released a report Tuesday that finally puts real numbers on a question a lot of Mountain State residents have been shouting past each other about: when a giant data center lands in your county, who actually gets the tax money? The answer, according to Treasury Strategic Analyst Mark Muchow, is that two projects alone — the Penzance Management campus in Berkeley County and Google’s project in Putnam County — would generate more than $103 million a year in property taxes, and roughly 62% of it stays home with county commissions and county school boards.

Is electricity dimming oil’s political power? - Political fortunes across the globe once rose and fell with the price of gasoline. Increasingly, they are tied to the monthly electric bill. That new reality has political leaders across North America and Europe rushing to stave off spiking power prices with an urgency unimaginable even a year ago. In the United Kingdom, Prime Minister Andy Burnham eliminated a tax on electricity shortly after walking through the doors of 10 Downing Street. Marine Le Pen, the leader of France’s right-wing National Rally, wants to slash power levies too — and exit Europe’s electricity market. And in the United States, voter anger over data centers’ potential impact on power bills has led governors like Pennsylvania Democrat Josh Shapiro and Texas Republican Greg Abbott to suddenly impose restrictions on the energy-hungry facilities they once championed. “They are very concerned about their utility bills and the cost of electricity, which is something that I feel like I didn’t really see in previous cycles,” said Oscar De Los Santos, who leads the Arizona Democrats trying to ride a wave of voter discontent to victory in the state’s House of Representatives for the first time in 60 years. The drivers of higher costs vary by country, but the growing transatlantic sensitivity can be traced back to the same source: The world is using more power than ever. That trend is already reshaping the political map. Populist candidates as varied as progressive Democrats in the U.S. and far-right members of Alternative for Germany, or AfD, are turning high electricity prices into a political rallying cry. In Europe, the focus on electricity is an outgrowth of the continent’s attempts to cut climate pollution and curb its reliance on imported fossil fuels. Data centers are the story in the U.S., with Democrats and Republicans alike eager to position themselves as the defenders of low electric bills with November’s midterm elections on the horizon. President Donald Trump is promoting a plan that asks technology companies to generate or pay for the electricity of their AI facilities. In Arizona, Democrats are trumpeting their efforts to end data center tax credits in a bid to win back the State House this fall. “You ask people, ‘Well, why do you think your electricity bill is so high?’ And more and more and more people were talking about AI data centers,” De Los Santos said. Oil is still king of global energy markets, and politics. But a shift is underway. Last year, global electricity demand grew at twice the pace of total energy demand, as new industries hoover up electrons. Power consumption from electric vehicles grew 38 percent in 2025, while data center electricity demand rose 17 percent, according to the International Energy Agency. Buildings were the single-largest driver of electricity demand growth last year, as rising incomes and extreme heat prompted more people worldwide to install air conditioners and heat pumps. “There are a whole bunch of macro and micro factors that are conspiring to make electricity a lot more important than it has been,” said Eurasia Group Chair Gerald Butts, who has served as an adviser to two Canadian prime ministers, including Mark Carney. “We’re just using it for more stuff, right? And the prospect of using it for exponentially more stuff over the next 25 years is, I think, a pretty strong bet.” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol has labeled the coming decades “the Age of Electricity.”“When somebody asks me, ‘is energy cheap or expensive today?’ I say it is $95 per barrel,” Birol said, referring to the price of oil in a recent interview. “Now, very soon when they ask me, ‘is energy cheaper?’ I will say 6 cents per kilowatt-hour. It will be the unit that people will look into.”The mounting pace of global electrification is one of the reasons why oil prices — while high — didn’t rise as much as expected after the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran earlier this year.Analysts initially predicted prices would hit at least $150 per barrel as Iran all but closed the Strait of Hormuz and global supply contracted. But the rising number of electric vehicles cut into global demand for crude, Butts said. In recent weeks, the international benchmark for oil has hovered between $85-$95 a barrel. “It’s a big macro market signal that oil is just not as geographically constrained or as essential as it used to be,” Butts said. “Essentially, oil is not worth what it once was.”

AI Data Center Investment Mania Goes Exponential as Money Gets Thrown at Hurdles & Shortages by Wolf Richter  -The race to build and equip $1 trillion of AI data centers as fast as possible, no matter what the costs and hurdles, has run into revolts that have triggered local data-center construction moratoriums and bans across dozens of states, with a bunch of states considering data-center construction moratoriums and bans – New York already implemented a 1-year moratorium until it gets its regulations sorted out – amid concerns about soaring electricity costs, blackouts, water shortages, the issues caused by onsite gas-turbine or diesel power-generators, etc. Some of the planned data centers would consume multiple gigawatts of power, but the grid cannot supply that kind of power all of a sudden. At the same time, there are enormous unanswered questions about the commercial viability of these massive amounts of investments, amid doubts that AI will generate the trillions of dollars in revenues to make that investment worthwhile. Where are these trillions of dollars in new revenues supposed to come from? No one knows. But build it, and the revenues will come? Nevertheless, the race to build AI data centers continues unabated. The amount spent only on the construction of data centers spiked by 6.2% month-over-month, and by 57% year-over-year to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $75 billion in July, according to construction data from the Census Bureau today. Since the beginning of 2021, monthly construction spending on data centers has spiked by 717%, along a near-exponential curve: Obviously, these kinds of the-sky-is-the-limit near-exponential curves eventually fizzle. But they can last longer than imagined. These amounts only reflect the construction costs of the buildings, the improvements around the buildings, and the equipment integrated into the buildings, such as HVAC systems. The amounts do not include the most expensive parts of a functioning data center: the servers, the racks, the electronic and optical equipment to connect the servers to the internet, the electrical equipment to supply power and cooling to the servers, the power generators, the transmission lines, etc. To accommodate this mad rush to build data centers as quickly as possible, construction companies and suppliers have developed technologies that speed up the work of building and equipping data centers to get them up and running faster. According to a report by the WSJ, they include:

• Custom concrete: “Cement manufacturer Amrize uses predictive modeling to design custom concrete mixes, a process traditionally done through lengthy trial and error; time savings: several weeks.
• Robotic concrete driller: “Stanley Black & Decker’s DeWalt brand and August Robotics have created a robot that drills thousands of holes to anchor server racks and other systems to the floor; time savings: six weeks.”
• Off-site construction of electrical and mechanical rooms: “Clayco and Turner subsidiary xPL Offsite make modular electrical and mechanical rooms at off-site factories, then truck them to data centers for installation; Time savings: several months.”
• Optical cable connectors: “3M makes components for fiber optic cables that allow servers to be connected in seconds, not minutes. A data center can have hundreds of thousands of connectors. Time savings: six months.”

Bottlenecks and shortages have dogged the manufacturers of on-site power generation equipment, especially gas turbines. Companies have started repurposing retired jet engines for on-site power generators. Musk has jumped into the fray to alleviate the shortages for his own data centers. In July, he acquired APR Energy, which makes among other things gas-turbine power generator sets. But the biggest bottleneck for gas turbine manufacturers are the blades and vanes, so Musk confirmed over the weekend that SpaceX will start manufacturing turbine blades and vanes. Shortages of semiconductors, including memory chips for AI servers, have caused prices of semiconductors to soar, and they have started to spread to consumer electronics, and from there to inflation metrics. There are now shortages of specialized labor, such as electricians. This kind of sudden maniac spending boom, funded by corporate cash and massive debt and equity issuance, leaves its marks everywhere, including by helping to push up government bond yields as they all compete for the same pool of money. This drive to build and equip and power up gigantic data centers, no matter what the costs and hurdles, is pulling resources and labor from other projects, and costs are rising, and we’re already seeing it in the inflation data.

Bot Farms & Chinese Cash Fueling Data Center Backlash - X (formerly called Twitter) says it caught 200,000 fake Chinese accounts running “influence operations” in the U.S. last week — and roughly 200 of them were aimed squarely at turning Americans against AI data centers. It’s the latest domino in a string of reports and congressional letters this year alleging that a chunk of the anti-data-center movement isn’t as grassroots as it looks. If you’ve been reading MDN’s coverage of Pennsylvania’s data-center fights — the Quinnipiac poll showing 74% local opposition, the South Strabane Township ordinance delays, the general drumbeat of “not in my backyard” — last week’s disclosure adds a wrinkle worth understanding.

AI, Leverage out the Wazoo, Sky-High Asset Prices, Private Credit, Interconnectedness, and Government Debt Pose Risks to Global Financial System -by Wolf Richter -   The Financial Stability Board (FSB), an international organization that among other things sends reports to the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors, sent a stark warning to the G20 today, ahead of its two-day meeting about the risks that have built up in the global financial system, and this time, AI, leverage out the wazoo, sky-high asset prices, driven in part by AI and leverage, and interconnectedness of everything were on top. Government debt globally – with all eyes on the US – was also on top.Everything was on top of the list, so to speak, but AI got special treatment in the letter: AI is a risk to the global financial system in terms of cyber risk and in terms of leverage, asset prices, and “cross-investments” (circular financing) of the entities involved.In the letter, FSB chair Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, warned of a “potentially disorderly correction” in the markets that “could spread across borders.” And it boils down to leverage:“As we have seen multiple times in the past, rising leverage is a feature of a maturing financial cycle. While it can reinforce rising markets, it can also intensify declines when sentiment turns, as recent weeks have demonstrated.”  “The issue is not simply that investors are borrowing more, but that leverage is interacting with high valuations and market concentration, in particular the increasing cross-investment between artificial intelligence (AI) companies and hyper scalers, in a way that could amplify a future market correction. “I remain concerned therefore that a large shock or combination of shocks could concurrently trigger multiple vulnerabilities.” The letter listed “fragilities” in government debt markets, such as:

• “Elevated issuance” (the US alone issues $1 trillion in additional debt every three to five months that have to be absorbed by investors).
• “Shortening maturities” (we think about Bessent’s efforts to shift some of the debt to short-term Treasury bills via issuance and buybacks; a larger share of T-bills makes the bond market riskier as increasingly huge amounts of T-bills have to be sold at massive auctions every week, now in the $500-600-billion-a-week range).
• “Leverage” (we think about the highly leveraged Treasury basis trade where hedge funds buy Treasuries and create and sell Treasury futures. They’re long Treasuries and short Treasury futures. The last time this blew up was in March 2020, and it locked up the huge Treasury market).

Bessent, who is in charge of the Treasury debt, today added his two cents to the focus on government debt: “The world is awash in debt post GFC, post COVID, and the only way for us to get out of this is to grow our way out of this,” he told reporters ahead of the G20 meeting. This is the principle of letting the economy run hot: higher inflation, higher nominal economic growth, and higher long-term interest rates. But that doesn’t address the other risks listed in the letter from the FSB.The FSB’s letter listed “vulnerabilities in private credit,” such as:

• “Levels of interconnectedness” with banks (banks took some big hits last year when several private credit deals blew up).
• “Liquidity mismatch” (referring to the recent runs on private credit funds, when investors were trying to yank their money out, after the issues became more apparent; funds promised these investors daily liquidity within small-print limits that no one read, while the funds’ investments are illiquid questionably-valued loans made to riskier companies).
• “Opacity” (in addition to regular opacity, such as what these loans might be really worth, we think of the instances of fraud that have caused some private-credit deals to blow up in the US last year).

The letter listed “stretched” and “elevated” asset valuations, such as:

• “Particularly artificial intelligence-related investments” (here we’re thinking about stocks involved in the AI trade, including semiconductor stocks, and anything that shot up due to the AI infrastructure investment mania, and the valuations of AI-related startups, now measured funnily in the trillions of dollars each).
• “Risky assets” whose valuations are “elevated.”

He listed increased “leverage in equity markets.”

• “Leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and correlated momentum-driven investment strategies” (alas, they have become favorites for retail investors, and they blow up routinely).
• “Growing footprint” of leveraged hedge funds in the stock market, some of which are also exposed to government debt (such as those in the basis trade or highly leveraged directional Treasury bets), which “increase the scope for contagion risk” from the stock markets to government debt markets.

AI risks get special treatment. A big part of the letter was reserved for AI, which represents a pile of risks layered on top of each other, including:

• Ability of frontier models to hack financial institutions across borders: “cyber disruption can spread across jurisdictions through common technology providers, shared infrastructure, and cross-border financial activity.”
• This cyber risk “could undermine market confidence system-wide, especially due to highly concentrated third-party service providers” (we think of this market confidence being the only force that keeps asset prices “stretched,” and when this confidence fizzles, it could lead to that “potentially disorderly correction” that “could spread across borders” that he’d warned about.
• “The increasing cross-investment” between AI companies and hyper scalers “that could amplify a future market correction (we think about the vertigo-inducing amounts and complexities of circular financing and opaque off-balance sheet liabilities).
• The sky-high stock prices and valuations of companies associated with AI that could add or cause that disorderly correction.

The G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors will have a lot to mull over – not that they didn’t already know all this and saw it develop over the years, and encouraged it to happen, or made it happen. And in terms of the central bank governors at the meeting: These debt levels, leverage, asset valuations, and risks were the inevitable results of many years of their central banks’ free-money policies of QE, ZIRP, NIRP, and forward guidance since 2008. They did it. Including Bailey (BOE governor since March 16, 2020).

Ohio Utility Cuts Off 43 Gas Customers as Old Wells Run Dry - Marcellus Drilling News -Ohio pumped roughly 2 trillion cubic feet of natural gas out of the ground last year, most of it from the Utica Shale. And yet 43 families in Washington County are being told to find another way to heat their homes by October 29 — because the wells that feed their gas line are running out of gas. The Marietta Times and the Parkersburg News & Sentinel both reported last week that Knox Energy has notified 43 customers in the Belpre area that their natural gas service ends October 29. The reason isn't a billing dispute or a rate case. It's geology.

EQT Quietly Launches Open Season for New 1 Bcf/d PA-OH Pipeline -Marcellus Drilling News - EQT is planning another pipeline — and this one is big. Through a brand-new subsidiary called Appalachian Transmission Gateway LLC (ATG), the Marcellus/Utica’s largest driller has opened bidding on the “POWER Pipeline,” a 42-inch, 50-mile line that would carry a full 1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of gas from Greene County, Pennsylvania, west to the Clarington hub in Monroe County, Ohio. The open season quietly began Aug. 26 and runs through Oct. 26. We found no press release announcing it — the notice simply went up, and the trade press caught it a week later. via Google:

• On August 26, 2026, a newly formed subsidiary of EQT Corporation called Appalachian Transmission Gateway LLC (ATG) quietly launched an open season bidding window for the "POWER Pipeline". [1, 2]
• Specifications: The proposed project is a massive 42-inch diameter, 50-mile natural gas pipeline engineered to move 1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of supply. [1]
• The Route: It is designed to transport Marcellus and Utica shale gas from production areas in Greene County, Pennsylvania, westward to the highly connected Clarington hub in Monroe County, Ohio. [1, 2]
• Timeline: The open season for shippers to commit to capacity runs from August 26 through October 26, 2026. [1]
• Market Context: This proposal comes amid a significant regional push by EQT Corporation to bypass pipeline bottlenecks and supply rapid energy demand in the Midwest, heavily driven by multi-billion dollar natural gas power plants and a surge in electricity demand for regional AI data centers. [1, 2, 3]

Rover-Fed Data Center Campus in Wash County, PA Faces 4 Hearings -- Marcellus Drilling News -   A Dallas-based hyperscaler wants to build a 1.7-million-square-foot computing campus — plus its very own 450-megawatt natural gas power plant — on a reclaimed strip mine in Washington County, PA. The gas would come off a lateral tied to Energy Transfer’s Rover Pipeline, which runs right past the property line. Prime Data Centers made its first real presentation to the Hanover Township Board of Supervisors Monday night, in front of a fire hall packed past capacity with residents who are, to put it mildly, not sold. Three hours of testimony later, the supervisors scheduled four more hearings.

Protect PT Tries to Undo Approval for SWPA Gas-Fired Data Center -- Marcellus Drilling News - Anti-drilling group Protect PT has opened a new front against the biggest gas-fired AI project in Westmoreland County, Pennsylvania. On Aug. 25, Protect PT and two Upper Burrell residents — Allen Uhler and Guy Fuller — filed a land use appeal in Westmoreland County Court challenging the township supervisors’ approval of TECfusions’ work at the former Alcoa/Arconic research campus. Notably, the appeal doesn’t attack the gas turbines or the Marcellus wells feeding them. It attacks a piece of paper. Or rather, the absence of one.

Gas Fuels 59% of PA Power as PUC Forecasts Data Center Surge -- Marcellus Drilling News -  Pennsylvania’s utility regulators just told the General Assembly what Marcellus drillers have been saying for two years: the electricity business is about to get very busy, and natural gas is going to be the one doing the heavy lifting. On Tuesday, September 1, the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission (PUC) released its annual Electric Power Outlook for Pennsylvania, this one covering 2025 through 2030. The report is required by state law — the PUC has to collect demand forecasts from the state’s 11 electric distribution companies (EDCs, the utilities that run the poles and wires to your house) and hand a summary to the Legislature and the Governor every September. Usually it’s a snoozer. Not this year.

Edge LNG, Marcellus Virtual Pipeline Pioneer, Sold to Sapphire Gas -- Marcellus Drilling News - - A press release crossed the wire yesterday announcing that Edge LNG — the little company that showed the Marcellus how to truck its stranded gas to market — has been sold. Sapphire Gas Solutions of Conroe, Texas, is the buyer. Blue Water Energy, the private equity firm that backed Edge from the beginning, is the seller. And here’s the part that caught our eye: the announcement calls Edge “a Texas-based LNG company” serving customers in the Southern U.S. The Marcellus, where Edge made its name, doesn’t get a single mention.

39 New Shale Well Permits Reported for PA-OH-WV Aug 24 – 30   - Marcellus Drilling News - The Marcellus/Utica region received 39 new drilling permits last week, August 24 – 30, up significantly from the 19 permits issued two weeks ago. Pennsylvania finally bounced back, issuing the vast majority of the new permits, with 25. Ohio issued 8 permits. And West Virginia issued 6 new permits. The drillers who received new permits were: Antero Resources, Campbell Oil & Gas, CNX Resources, EOG Resources, EQT, Expand Energy, Infinity Natural Resources, PennEnergy Resources, and Repsol Oil & Gas. Antero Resources | Beaver County | Bradford County | Campbell Oil & Gas | Clearfield County | CNX Resources | EOG Resources | EQT Corp | Expand Energy | Harrison County | INR/Infinity Natural Resources | Marshall County | Noble County | PennEnergy Resources | Repsol | Susquehanna County | Washington County | Westmoreland County

Seneca Expanding Appalachian Footprint as Natural Gas Demand Outlook Strengthens   -  Seneca Resources is joining a growing list of Appalachian pure-plays working to bolt on acreage to strengthen inventories and expand development runways as natural gas demand is poised to strengthen.   NGI chart shows Tennessee Zone 4 Marcellus daily natural gas prices spiking above $60/MMBtu in late January 2026 before retreating.  At a Glance:
Up to $240 million budgeted
Core acreage targeted in Pennsylvania
Other Appalachian operators adding acreage

Split Casing at INR Pad Spills Frack Water into Indiana Co. Stream -- Marcellus Drilling News - -A frack job gone sideways in Indiana County, PA, kept 14 volunteer fire companies on scene for more than 12 hours last month — and, according to a Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) inspection report, sent an unknown quantity of frack flowback water off the pad and into a nearby stream. We don’t sugarcoat things at MDN, so let’s walk through what actually happened, what DEP says it found, and — just as important — what nobody has established yet.

DEP: 336,000 Gallons of Frack Water Spilled at INR Indiana Co. Pad -- Marcellus Drilling News - We finally have a number. Two weeks after a casing failure sent frack water gushing across the Infinity Natural Resources Cooper well pad in Young Township, Indiana County, PA, the Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) has put an estimate on it: 336,000 gallons of frack flowback water released during the incident. An “undetermined amount” of that reached Whiskey Run, the small stream below the pad. Here’s what that number actually means — and what it still doesn’t tell us.

Cove Point LNG Outage to Cut Appalachian Natural Gas Demand  - Annual maintenance at Cove Point LNG in Maryland could remove about 850 MMcf/d of feedgas demand from Appalachia for up to three weeks starting Sept. 19 if recent outage patterns repeat, just as the fall shoulder season weighs on power demand. Cove Point LNG feedgas deliveries in 2024-2026 show seasonal maintenance declines, with 2026 flows near 850,000 Dth/d in early September.  At a Glance:
Pleasant Valley work Sept. 19–Oct. 2
Past outages cut feedgas to 15,000 Dth/d
East storage 6% above 5-year average

850 MMcf/d of M-U Demand Vanishes Sept. 19 as Cove Point Shuts -- Marcellus Drilling News - -It’s that time of year again. Cove Point LNG, the Berkshire Hathaway-operated export terminal on the Maryland shore of the Chesapeake Bay, is heading into its annual maintenance turnaround — and when the plant goes down, roughly 850 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) of demand for Marcellus/Utica gas simply evaporates. MDN has obtained the official notice from pipeline operator BHE GT&S laying out exactly what happens and when.

FERC Enviro Assessment for Constitution Pipe: No Significant Impact - Marcellus Drilling News - - In April, we told you the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) was taking a fresh look at the revived Constitution Pipeline and the associated Wright Interconnect project, and that the agency had to decide whether a relatively quick Environmental Assessment (EA) would do the job — or whether it would drag the projects through a full-blown, years-long Environmental Impact Statement (EIS). We got our answer on August 21. FERC staff issued the EA for both projects — 79 pages plus appendices — and the bottom line is the one supporters have been waiting on: building Constitution “would not constitute a major federal action significantly affecting the quality of the human environment.” In plain English — no significant impact. No years-long supplemental EIS is needed.

DEEP Memo Undercuts Antis in Iroquois CT Compressor Permit Fight -- Marcellus Drilling News - Iroquois Gas Transmission System’s Enhancement by Compression (ExC) project has cleared FERC. It has cleared New York. The one thing standing between it and a shovel is a state air permit for two gas-fired compressor units in Brookfield, Connecticut. The Hartford Courant checked in on that fight yesterday — and buried the two most important facts halfway down the story. Quick refresher for anyone joining late: ExC is a $272 million upgrade that adds horsepower at three existing compressor stations — Dover and Athens in New York, Brookfield in Connecticut. No new pipe. Just more compression, squeezing an additional 125 MMcf/d (125 million cubic feet per day) through the existing 414-mile line into New York City and New England. That’s roughly a 10% throughput gain on a line that already exists, feeding two of the most gas-starved, highest-priced energy markets in the country. (The Courant puts the project at $275 million; we’ve used the $272 million figure Iroquois has cited. Small gap, worth pinning down.)

DC Circuit Backs FERC on Enbridge’s East Tennessee Gas Upgrade -Marcellus Drilling News -  Here’s a pipeline fight where the bad guys aren’t the greens. Last Friday, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit sided with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and Enbridge subsidiary East Tennessee Natural Gas (ETNG), tossing out a challenge brought not by environmental radicals but by the pipeline’s own customers — a group of small-town gas utilities in Tennessee, Virginia, and Alabama who said they were being stuck with the bill for an upgrade they never asked for.

WI Gas Plant Plan Could Pull More Marcellus Gas Westward -- Marcellus Drilling News - A Chicago-based developer wants to build a pair of natural gas-fired power plants in a Wisconsin farm town of 1,650 people — and together they’d crank out enough electricity to light up two million homes. It’s another data center story, and it’s another reminder that the demand pull for our Marcellus and Utica gas keeps stretching farther west. Invenergy has submitted engineering plans to Wisconsin regulators for two gas-fired plants in Brillion, Calumet County, about 15 miles from Appleton. The 750-megawatt (MW) Union Depot Energy Center would run around the clock. The 1.2-gigawatt (GW) Forest Junction Energy Center would be a “peaker” — a plant that fires up only when the grid is straining. Combined output: 1.95 GW. If built, Forest Junction would be the second-largest gas plant in Wisconsin.

LNG Feedgas Demand Retreats Ahead of Sabine-Neches Waterway Reopening - A look at the global natural gas and LNG markets by the numbers.  Graphic: LNG Export Flow Tracker -

• 17.37 Bcf/d: US LNG feedgas demand slipped to roughly 17.37 Bcf/d in Wednesday’s nominations, a decline of about 892 MMcf/d from Tuesday, according to NGI’s Entropic Analytics data. Lower nominations at all four of Sabine Pass’s feeder points accounted for roughly three-quarters of the pullback, with smaller declines at Calcasieu Pass and Cameron. Feedgas nominations have not topped 18.5 Bcf/d since April 26 and remain below the 19.50 Bcf/d high set March 28. The Sabine-Neches Waterway serving Beaumont and Port Arthur reopened to outbound traffic at 12 p.m. ET Wednesday after closing late Aug. 31 for Tropical Depression Edouard, which produced a peak gust of 91 mph about two miles south of Port Arthur, according to the US Coast Guard Marine Safety Unit Port Arthur.
• 70%: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC) placed the Houston area under its highest risk category for flooding starting at 8 a.m. ET Thursday as the remnants of Tropical Depression Edouard continue to track across Texas. Meteorologists estimated flood risks at 70% or higher across a swath northwest of Houston as the National Hurricane Center advised of 35–45 mph gusts near the depression’s center. A marginal flood risk extended east to near New Orleans. While feedgas nominations to Gulf Coast terminals were reduced significantly by Wednesday afternoon, pipeline and export facility operators didn’t report any technical issues to customers or state regulators.
• 1.73 Mt: Global LNG exports fell 1.73 Mt short of year-ago levels in August, totaling 32.83 Mt even as loadings rose 1.21 Mt from July, according to Kpler vessel tracking data. The gap was attributed almost entirely to the Middle East, where exports dropped by 4.98 Mt from the year-ago period in 2025 to 2.94 Mt as Qatari volumes collapsed 78% to 1.46 Mt. Growth elsewhere covered only part of the loss, adding a combined 3.25 Mt year/year. The Americas led at 12.30 Mt, up 1.97 Mt, followed by the Pacific at 12.24 Mt. Europe rose 0.66 Mt to 2.08 Mt, and Africa gained 0.15 Mt to 3.26 Mt. Global imports totaled 32.06 Mt, down 3.37 Mt year/year, with Asia accounting for most of the pullback at 22.31 Mt, off 3.25 Mt.
• 10.19 Mt: US LNG exporters loaded 10.19 Mt in August, up 15% from a year earlier. The United States marked the largest year/year increase of any exporting country for August, according to Kpler vessel tracking data. US LNG exports were essentially flat compared to July. Europe took 5.47 Mt in US LNG during the month, up 1.47 Mt and 0.32 Mt year/year. Meanwhile Asia took 2.91 Mt, accounting for a 0.93 Mt decrease from July but still 1.19 Mt above the same period last year. US volumes accounted for roughly 31% of the 32.83 Mt global total for the month, and the Americas as a region exported 12.30 Mt, up 1.97 Mt year/year.

Cheniere Completes Corpus Christi LNG Expansion Project, Exports 5,000th Cargo - Cheniere Energy said Monday it completed its Corpus Christi LNG (CCL) Stage 3 project after bringing the seventh and final liquefaction train online at the expansion in South Texas. At a Glance:

• Stage 3 expansion finished
• Seventh liquefaction train online
• Cheniere output rises 20%

Edouard Set to Cool East Texas After Sparing Gulf Coast LNG Feedgas -Feedgas nominations Tuesday held near recent levels at Gulf Coast LNG terminals as Tropical Storm Edouard made landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border, with forecasters putting the storm's heaviest rains west of the export complex and its threat to production at zero. NGI North America LNG Export Flow Tracker shows LNG feedgas volumes, terminal flows and export facility locations across North America.  At a Glance:
Storm surge warnings covered four terminals
Golden Pass trims 109 MMcf/d
National LNG demand steady near 19.1 Bcf/d

US LNG Exports Surge 23% — So Why Is Henry Hub Still Below $3? --Despite an enormous increase in US LNG output this year, benchmark Henry Hub prices have barely budged.  At a Glance:
LNG feed gas tops 19 Bcf/d
Production hovers near record levels
Storage stays above five-year average

Stubborn Inflation, Erratic Hiring — What It Means for Natural Gas Demand - Despite a resilient job market in August, a broadly softening US economy and slower global activity could take some heat out of natural gas demand just as end-of-summer cooling needs fade.  NGI Henry Hub daily natural gas spot prices fluctuate between about $2.50 and $3.35/MMBtu from May through early September 2026.  At a Glance:

• Economic easing could drag on gas demand
• US job market choppy, inflation elevated
• Interest rates high, pressuring debt cost

Permian Gas Production High Even as East Outflows Dip - Permian production was relatively flat last week, averaging 23.1 Bcf/d, in line with where it has been throughout the month of August (see dark orange line in chart below). However, the rig count is climbing, setting the basin up for future growth when Blackcomb and Hugh Brinson pipelines come on later this year. Hugh Brinson has some capacity online but will ramp up to 1.5 Bcf/d this year, and then to 2.2 Bcf/d next year. Blackcomb is commissioning and will have a capacity of 2.5 Bcf/d by the end of the year. Combined, these will provide ample room for production to grow. RBN expects production to climb to around 23.9 Bcf/d by the end of the year and then continue growing in 2027 with production exceeding 25 Bcf/d by year-end. Outflows from the Permian to other regions were down last week, with high in-basin demand alleviating some pressure on flows to the East. Outflows to the East averaged 13.5 Bcf/d, down 0.3 Bcf/d week-on-week. Outflows on all the greenfield pipelines remained strong, with flows on legacy pipelines falling. This is typical for the basin, the newer routes tend to stay full, with flows on legacy routes adjusting based on the overall supply demand balance of the basin. Outflows to Mexico average 2.1 Bcf/d last week. Exports to Mexico through Waha continue to be very strong this summer. Outflows to the West averaged 2.7 Bcf/d, consistent with the prior week. Outflows to the North averaged 1.8 Bcf/d, up 0.1 Bcf/d week-on-week with rebounding flows on Northern Natural and on El Paso towards San Juan.

Fly Like An Eagle – Second Wave of Natural Gas Pipelines Has the Permian Cleared for Takeoff | RBN Energy -  The Permian Basin is poised to gain several new natural gas pipelines over the next year or two, finally easing its long-standing takeaway constraints. But the changes won’t stop there. A new wave of proposed projects could further reshape the basin beyond 2027 and into the 2030s. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the major, longer-horizon plans, what they could mean for the Permian, and the new challenges that could arise as this infrastructure comes online. This is the second blog in our series on the outlook for major U.S. producing basins, starting with the largest: the Permian. A major topic at our upcoming School of Energy: Fundamentals, the Permian is the nation’s largest oil-producing basin and a key driver of U.S. gas growth. Its oil-focused wells also generate substantial and growing volumes of associated gas. But moving that gas out of West Texas and southeastern New Mexico has become one of the market’s biggest challenges and a constraint on further oil production. In our first blog, we covered the major pipeline projects expected to enter service this year and next, which will add about 5.3 Bcf/d of egress capacity from the Waha area. In the blogs ahead, we will examine the Permian’s major producers and the challenges still to come, including the implications of rising NGL production.  Today, we explore how the Permian’s gas takeaway picture could evolve beyond 2027 and into the early 2030s. Plans can change, of course, but our outlook is based on proposed projects and their current level of development. The growing number of LNG export facilities planned along the Texas Gulf Coast is a major reason more natural gas pipeline capacity is needed. New and expanding LNG projects at Corpus Christi and Port Arthur will increase demand for gas in markets that Permian pipelines increasingly serve, including the Agua Dulce and Katy hubs and the broader Houston-area corridor. That means the takeaway challenge is no longer simply moving gas out of West Texas. It also involves ensuring sufficient downstream infrastructure to carry those volumes from Gulf Coast market hubs to LNG export facilities (more on that below). Kinder Morgan’s Gulf Coast Express expansion (0.57 Bcf/d; aqua-blue line in Figure 1 below) is already flowing more gas to the Agua Dulce Hub in South Texas. This lifts the pipeline’s total capacity to 2.6 Bcf/d and has helped the Waha Hub recover from negative prices, though it has not fully resolved Permian takeaway constraints. Energy Transfer’s Hugh Brinson Pipeline (blue line) is starting to ramp up flows to Northeast Texas. It will eventually have a capacity of 2.2 Bcf/d. The Blackcomb Pipeline (dashed red line) is set to enter service later this year, providing an extra 2.5 Bcf/d of takeaway to Agua Dulce, and the planned 2.4-Bcf/d Traverse Pipeline (not shown) would provide onward access from Agua Dulce to Katy/Houston in 2027.

Center of My Universe – A New Bidirectional Header Aims to Facilitate Rising Gas Flows Through Katy | RBN Energy - Massive volumes of mostly Permian-sourced natural gas are already converging on the Katy, TX, area just west of Houston, and much more will be arriving soon as planned pipelines — including the newly proposed, 4.5-Bcf/d Solitude Pipeline System — come online in the months and years ahead. Now, a new, bidirectional header system is being built to help ease the flow of gas through the increasingly important Katy Hub, which serves as a key aggregation and distribution point for gas bound for existing and planned Gulf Coast industrial and power-generation load as well as a slew of LNG export terminals. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss the Aspen Katy Hub project, which is slated for startup early next year. Consider for a moment a conventional cloverleaf interchange where two multilane highways intersect. It generally works well, at least as long as the volume of car-and-truck traffic doesn’t get out of hand. But when volumes soar and the traffic jams, highway engineers often turn to “stacked” interchanges with several “flyover” ramps that help speed the transfer of vehicles from one highway to the other. As it turns out, one of the most amazing of these transportation “spaghetti bowls” is in Katy itself, where Interstate 10 (aka the Katy Freeway) and State Highway 99 (aka the Grand Parkway) meet — see photo below.With that image in mind, consider the Aspen Katy Hub project, a bidirectional header system being planned by Aspen Midstream, a Dallas-based company backed by EnCap Flatrock Midstream. Aspen Midstream is already an active player in the region. In the late 2010s and early 2020s, it built:

• An extensive high-pressure, low-nitrogen (N2) gas gathering system (lavender lines in Figure 1 below) in the northeastern Eagle Ford — more specifically, the Austin Chalk/Gidding Field area in Fayette and Washington counties.
• A 200-MMcf/d gas processing plant (Battle Horse; magenta pentagon) and 260 MMcf/d of amine treating facilities for carbon dioxide (CO2) removal.
• The 57-mile, 30-inch-diameter AMP Intrastate Pipeline (green line), a residue-gas pipeline from the Battle Horse plant to the Katy Hub (white circle).

Along its way to Katy, the pipeline interconnects with both the in-service, 2.5-Bcf/d Matterhorn Express pipeline (yellow line), which runs from the Permian’s Waha Hub to the Katy area, and the under-construction, 3.5-Bcf/d Blackfin Pipeline (dashed red line), which will run from just west of Katy to just north of Beaumont, TX, and is slated to come online in a few months.In May, Aspen Midstream reached a final investment decision (FID) on its Aspen Katy Hub project, which calls for installing new low- and high-pressure header systems and extensive compression capacity near the current terminus of the company’s AMP Intrastate Pipeline at the Katy Hub. Most of that new infrastructure will be built within the bounds of a 65-acre, Aspen Midstream-owned site that adjoins the existing hub, providing both the footprint for the initial buildout and room for future expansion. The Aspen Katy Hub project is backed by long-term, take-or-pay contracts with investment-grade shippers — both those bringing gas to Katy and sending it out.Before we go further, we should provide some background on the Katy Hub and what’s already there. The Katy area, spanning parts of Fort Bend and Waller counties, through the middle years of the 20th century was primarily known for natural gas production. The volumes produced by the extensive gas fields there declined in the ensuing decades, and in the mid-1990s a massive, depleted reservoir was repurposed as an underground gas storage facility. Enstor, then part of ScottishPower’s PPM Energy subsidiary*, purchased the storage facility in 2004 and built out a dual header system that now connects the company’s 23.5 Bcf of Katy storage capacity to 16 gas pipelines that flow into and out of the hub (see Figure 2 below).For many years now, Enstor’s Katy Hub (also known as Katy Storage & Transportation) has served as a critically important gas-transportation junction/switching station and one of the U.S.’s most liquid gas trading hubs. Notably, its depleted-reservoir storage facility, with a gas-injection rate of up to about 750 MMcf/d and a withdrawal rate of up to ~700 MMcf/d, provides a physical buffer for gas — receiving gas when regional supply exceeds demand and sending gas out when demand exceeds supply.  The rapid growth in Permian crude oil production — and, more relevant to our discussion today, the boom in associated gas production in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico in the early 2020s — has spurred the development of several new, high-capacity gas pipelines from the Permian to the Katy area. These include the 2.5-Bcf/d Matterhorn Express (yellow line in Figure 3 below; already online), the 3.7-Bcf/d Eiger Express (dashed orange line; scheduled to come online in 2028-29), and the recently announced, 4.5-Bcf/d Solitude Pipeline System (dashed blue line; online in 2029-30).As new takeaway capacity eases the Permian’s long-running egress constraints, an increasing share of the gas leaving West Texas will need to be sorted, redirected and moved onward once it reaches the Gulf Coast, increasing the importance of hubs like Katy.Other planned pipelines designed to move large volumes of gas up and down the Texas coast also will flow to or through the Katy area, including the 3.5-Bcf/d Blackfin Pipeline (dashed red line; online in Q4 2026 or Q1 2027); the 2-Bcf/d Trident Pipeline from Katy to the Golden Pass LNG terminal in Port Arthur, TX (dashed pink line; 1.5 Bcf/d online in Q1 2027 and an additional 500 MMcf/d in Q4 2028); the 2-Bcf/d Traverse Pipeline between South Texas’s Agua Dulce Hub and the Katy area (dashed purple line; online in H2 2027); and the 2.5-Bcf/d Mustang Express system (dashed green line; online in 2028-29). Note that Mustang Express’s mainline will run from Katy to Port Arthur, while its Cougar Lateral will connect Katy and Enbridge’s Tres Palacios gas storage facility (magenta tank icon) in Matagorda County.Much as fast-rising traffic volumes through the Katy Freeway/Grand Parkway interchange led transportation planners to make major improvements there a dozen years ago, the prospect of sharply increasing volumes of gas heading to and out of Katy led Aspen Midstream to pursue the development of its Aspen Katy Hub project. The new hub (dark-blue circle in Figure 4 below) will consist of two new, parallel, 30/36-inch-diameter header systems, each of them several thousand feet in length. One of the headers will be low-pressure and the other will be high-pressure to accommodate the widely varying gas pressure in the pipelines that will connect to it. The header systems will be linked to Enstor’s storage facility and at least a half-dozen pipelines, including the Atmos Energy system, Matterhorn Express (MXP), Kinder Morgan Texas Pipeline (KMTP) and Kinder’s recently acquired Monument Pipeline.Aspen Midstream also is installing a large, central compressor station at the site to enable the rerouting, compression/decompression and switching of up to 3 Bcf/d of gas flows on the header systems. The station also will enable bilateral flows on the company’s AMP Intrastate Pipeline (also known as the Austin Chalk Extension, or ACE), turning that pipe into a western extension of the new header systems and letting gas flow west from Katy to Blackfin. (The compressor station and header systems are being developed on Aspen Midstream’s fully owned, 65-acre footprint, with the facilities designed to allow for additional compression in the future, if needed.) The new compressor capacity, the new header systems, and the pipeline and storage interconnections are expected not only to help minimize future gas-flow bottlenecks in the Katy area but also to provide shippers with greater flexibility to source, redirect and wheel gas among the growing number of pipelines converging there. That flexibility should become increasingly valuable and will help speed the flow of gas through the Katy area as new pipelines come online, new power plants are built in the region, and new LNG export terminals are added along the coasts of both Texas and southwestern Louisiana. Aspen Midstream’s Katy project is yet another example of the extraordinary and ongoing buildout of new, gas-related infrastructure in the Lone Star State — gas gathering systems, gas processing plants, long-haul pipelines, hubs like Waha and Katy, gas-fired power plants, and new LNG export capacity.

Here You Come Again – Is Gas Production in the San Juan Basin’s Mancos Shale About to Rebound? | RBN Energy -  A small cadre of E&Ps active in the San Juan Basin’s Mancos Shale is anticipating breakout growth in natural gas production there if and when gas prices rise, and a well-known midstreamer is planning what could eventually be a high-capacity gas pipeline to the burgeoning Arizona market. Still to be determined, however, is whether the moonscape-like region along the New Mexico-Colorado border emerges as a mini-Haynesville or the optimism withers and dies under the hot desert sun. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss what producers have been saying about their results in — and hopes for — the Mancos and the plan by Tallgrass Energy to build a new, large-diameter pipeline out of the play.In our 2026 prognostications blog back in January, we said, “There’s been a lot of market buzz around a handful of niche gas plays that share a common profile: the gas is dry, wells are deeper than legacy development in the area, reservoirs are often overpressured, initial production (IP) rates are high, and economics look compelling.” We noted that in the San Juan Basin, “operators are ignoring legacy coalbed methane and targeting the deeper, horizontally drilled Mancos Shale. Our prognostication? These smaller ‘dry-gas islands’ ... are likely to command much more attention in 2026.”In fact, there has been a lot of talk about the Mancos this year — and a major acquisition (following a big deal last year) — but it’s likely that the production breakout some are predicting may still be a year or two away (and maybe more).First, a little history. Gas production in the San Juan Basin in northwestern New Mexico and southwestern Colorado has experienced a lot of ups and downs since the first commercially successful gas well was drilled there 105 years ago. In the years up to and just after World War II, the challenge was getting gas to market; the San Juan was hundreds of miles from large population centers and there was hardly any pipeline infrastructure in place. The completion of the El Paso Natural Gas (EPNG) pipeline to California in the early 1950s spurred a boom in conventional gas production in the basin, and (after a handful of mini-booms and mini-busts) there was a late-century surge in coalbed methane production from the uppermost Fruitland Formation (dark-brown layer on right side of Figure 1 below). By 2000, the San Juan Basin was among the U.S.’s top gas production areas, churning out nearly 4.5 Bcf/d of gross gas, or about 8% of total U.S. onshore production at the time.  But gas production there has been sliding over the past quarter-century. As we said a while back in I‘m Still Standing, production in the three counties that account for virtually all the San Juan’s gas (Rio Arriba and San Juan counties in New Mexico and La Plata County in Colorado) fell to 3 Bcf/d or so by the mid-2010s and about 2 Bcf/d in recent years — no slouch, certainly, but no Marcellus, Permian or Haynesville either.That may be changing, according to E&Ps active in the Mancos Shale (medium-gray layer on right side of Figure 1), a thick marine shale formation located several thousand feet below ground level. Gas production from horizontal drilling in the Mancos geologic layer (see Figure 2 below) increased from less than 100 MMcf/d in the first half of 2021 to more than 500 MMcf/d from December 2025 through March 2026 before sliding to less than 400 MMcf/d in April, May and June. Producers there attributed the recent decline to lower regional gas prices and, in response to the Iran conflict, a shift by at least a couple of E&Ps to crude-oil-focused drilling in other U.S. playsDespite sagging production lately, there’s optimism among Mancos Shale E&Ps that it will shine in time. “Our Mancos Shale position represents one of the most compelling emerging natural gas opportunities in North America,” Mach Natural Resources CEO Tom Ward said during the company’s August 7 earnings call. “The well performance rivals that of the better-known Haynesville and Marcellus shale plays, with operators recently reporting Mancos initial production rates exceeding 25 MMcf/d of gas.”Mach Natural Resources only entered the San Juan/Mancos Shale last September, when it closed on the acquisition of international asset manager IKAV Energy’s San Juan Basin assets. That $771 million transaction gave Mach 570,000 net acres and 336 MMcf/d of gas production in the San Juan — most of it coalbed methane and gas from conventional wells.Ward noted during the call that the cost of a typical 3-mile lateral in the Mancos Shale has been declining fast over the past couple of years, from nearly $20 million to less than $15 million, with the expectation that costs for the E&P’s ongoing drilling program will be “in the $13 million range for a completed well.” He added that the San Juan Basin more generally “benefits from a mature natural gas transportation network developed over decades of conventional gas production. We expect over the next five years that additional takeaway capacity will be installed to get to premium gas markets of Arizona” as well as LNG export markets in western Mexico. (More on gas takeaway pipelines and regional markets later.)Woodside Energy has placed its Beaumont New Ammonia facility under strategic review and is evaluating its options for the site, the company said during its H1 2026 earnings presentation on August 25. CEO Liz Westcott said the company’s assets “must all compete for capital equally,” and that new energy opportunities must be supported by clear customer demands and commercial markets and compete for capital with other investment opportunities. An even larger M&A deal happened just a couple of months ago: In June, asset management and investment firm Sixth Street Partners acquired privately held LOGOS Energy for about $1 billion. LOGOS has more than 240,000 net acres in the heart of the Mancos Shale production area and for the past couple of years has accounted for a substantial portion — typically more than 60% — of total gas production from horizontal wells there.Back in January, LOGOS Energy provided a detailed report on what it called “record-breaking results from its 2025 Mancos Shale development program,” noting that its operated production had tripled since 2022 and that the company had drilled “28 of the top 36 producing wells in San Juan Basin history ranked by peak monthly production.” More specifically, LOGOS said that its Rosa Unit 756H in the core of the Mancos just south of the Colorado-New Mexico border achieved a peak IP30 of 26.6 MMcfe/d from about 13,700 feet of completed lateral, “the highest 30-day rate ever recorded in the basin.” It said that the milestone followed the E&P’s 2024 success with Rosa Unit 704H, which reached 25.5 MMcfe/d from a similar-length lateral.LOGOS Energy also has been successful in the Mancos Shale across the state line. In July 2025, it placed online its first Mancos horizontal well in Colorado, the Ignacio 33-7 29P. That well had a peak IP30 of 19.9 MMcfe/d, LOGOS said, adding that the E&P “believes these results demonstrate the consistency of the Mancos reservoir across its acreage in both New Mexico and Colorado.”Other leading unconventional producers in the Mancos Shale include Enduring Resources and Hilcorp Energy, the latter of which is also a top producer of coalbed methane in the San Juan Basin. It’s common among E&Ps in the Mancos to be thinking — and talking — more medium- and long-term than next month or even next year. At a recent energy conference, Brent Clum, co-CEO at TXO Partners, a smaller, privately held E&P, said that if you asked executives at the company the past couple of years what their plans were for the Mancos, “we would tell you next year we're going to drill ... and do a two- to four-well program ... and every year the commodity prices don’t really allow us to do that. I would expect once we commit to drilling wells there, you will see us spend meaningful capital.”Clum added, “At this point, it's probably not going to be 2027. Maybe if commodity markets change in that regard. We think we probably need a $3.50 to $4 (per MMBtu) realized price in the basin, and basis has not been particularly favorable in the San Juan Basin in the last 18 months.” Gas produced in the San Juan Basin typically sells at a significant discount to Henry Hub — generally between $0.40 and $1.10/MMBtu in recent months, with a wider basis during the shoulder months when power-sector demand is lower.

Diesel Disaster Looms After Gas Price-Spike - The exploding cost of energy is most obviously being felt at the gasoline pumps for Americans as evidenced in this Visual Capitalist graphic where prices in some states are up over 60% in six months in the wake of the Iran war. While Gasoline is the biggest visible causality of the war, the even bigger one as we shall see is Diesel prices at the pump. The thing is, diesel is more prevalent in use globally and factors into many things that will be seeing increased costs in 2027 like food (Wheat is up over 50% this year) and finished goods. Here then is Goldman’s take on the diesel disaster we are in the middle of right now. Siphoning off the SPR to keep oil prices down has limited success of late. But there is no way to keep crack spreads down when refining capacity is maxed out and the economy needs diesel . Diesel markets entered September under renewed pressure after further US-Iran strikes pushed Brent crude above $91 a barrel and US diesel crack spreads back toward $100. The move extends a refined-products shortage that has been building since spring, as disruptions across the Persian Gulf and Russia reduce the world’s ability to convert crude oil into diesel, gasoline and jet fuel. In an Aug. 28 report titled “Higher Product Margins for Longer on Higher Outages and Lower Stocks,” Goldman analysts Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby, Filippo Cuscito and Daan Struyven argue that geopolitical disruptions have intensified an existing shortage of refining capacity. They expect product margins to remain elevated through 2027 as refinery outages restrict production, inventories decline and geopolitical uncertainty adds a security premium to prices. Global refined-product prices remain nearly $50 higher than a year ago after doubling during the first two months of the US-Iran war. Diesel contributed more than 40% of the $40-per-barrel increase in average wholesale product prices since the end of February, making it the largest driver of the rally. The supply losses are concentrated in regions that produce high volumes of diesel and jet fuel. Middle Eastern and Russian refineries have relatively high middle-distillate yields, while much of the disrupted crude supply involves heavier grades that are particularly suitable for diesel production. Seasonal demand should also favor diesel as gasoline consumption weakens after summer and heating demand strengthens into winter. The larger rise in product margins relative to crude reflects a sharper contraction in refined-product supply. Diesel and jet fuel margins are approximately three times their year-earlier levels, while dated Brent has risen 34%. Global refined-product exports have declined by 6 million barrels a day, or 25%, from a year earlier, with the Persian Gulf and Russia responsible for three-quarters of the reduction. Although Gulf crude exports have recovered to an estimated 70% to 80% of prewar levels, the region’s product exports remain at only 40%. Russian refinery runs have also fallen following repeated strikes, contributing to restrictions on most Russian gasoline and diesel exports through February. Global refinery outages are running approximately 60% above seasonal norms. Disrupted crude deliveries to Asia and restrictions on Chinese product exports have further limited the supply response, even as high margins encourage operating refineries to raise production.

Basket Case – The $100/bbl Diesel Crack, or How 2026 Exposed the Fragility of Global Refining | RBN Energy   -For many, 2026 will be remembered as the year that diesel cracks topped the century mark ($100/bbl) for the first time. On August 17, the U.S. Gulf Coast diesel crack spread (vs. WTI Cushing) surpassed that sky-high level, and although it has since fallen into the $90s/bbl, it remains at levels never seen before, even exceeding those during the post-COVID boom year of 2022. In today’s RBN blog, we examine the various factors driving this run-up and what they say about the overall physical refined products market.Let’s start with some background about where things stand today. The global crude markets are not short of crude in the traditional sense (despite various geopolitically caused constraints). Instead, the world is struggling to refine enough crude oil into middle distillates to satisfy demand. That distinction is critical. According to the EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) for the week ended August 21, distillate inventories fell for a fourth consecutive week, dropping to just above 103 MMbbl (see our Crude Billboard for more details). Distillate stocks are on track for their lowest end-of-month level since April 2005, and are the lowest they have been in the month of August since 1951. The events of 2026 have created a series of simultaneous disruptions to global refining capacity and refined-product flows. Middle Eastern refineries have been affected by damage inflicted during the Iran conflict and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, while Russian refining and exports have been repeatedly set back by Ukrainian drone attacks. This is all coming at a time when global refining capacity was already tight due to a number of permanent shutdowns (many during the COVID years) and limited new capacity coming online. As a result, even as U.S. refiners have been running exceptionally hard and exporting record volumes, the world supply of middle distillates (including diesel and jet fuel) is playing catch-up with demand, resulting in a market in which every additional diesel barrel has become extremely valuable.A crack spread measures the difference between the value of refined products and the crude oil used to produce them. A $100/bbl diesel crack (right end of orange line and left axis in Figure 1 below), therefore, does not mean a refinery is earning $100/bbl in net profit. Refiners still have operating expenses, transportation costs, financing costs, hedging effects and the economics of the other products produced by the refinery. Instead, it means that the market value of diesel relative to crude has become extraordinarily high. That distinction gives us the first major clue about what is happening. If crude (blue line and left axis) is expensive because the world is short of barrels, crude prices should be doing most of the work. But when diesel prices (green dashed line and right axis) rise dramatically relative to crude, the problem is further downstream.There are three major factors that have impacted the diesel markets on the supply side of the equation that have led to record-breaking cracks this year: the Middle East/Strait of Hormuz, Russia, and the cost of diesel and complying with the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). Let’s take them one by one.The Iran conflict has created one of the most significant disruptions to global petroleum markets in decades, with much of the market attention focused on crude oil and the potential loss of flows through the Strait of Hormuz. As we discussed in Stuck in a (Gulf) You Can’t Get Out Of, the volume of products flowing out of the strait has plummeted since the start of the war. After averaging an aggregate 3.3 MMb/d between January and February (sum of stacked areas in Figure 2 below), they cratered in the following months, dropping to as little as 100 Mb/d in April (dashed blue circle). Reuters estimates that more than 20% of Middle Eastern refining capacity has been knocked offline or impaired by physical damage, while the conflict has dramatically reduced normal flows through the region. Global refinery runs fell by roughly 5.1 MMb/d year over year in Q2 2026. Middle Eastern refineries don't simply produce crude-derived products for their domestic markets. They are important suppliers of refined products to the rest of the world. And the Strait of Hormuz is typically weighted more toward diesel than other products as well. When those barrels disappear, Europe and Asia must find replacement supplies.That creates competition for diesel from every available exporting region. The market therefore moves from a relatively balanced system to a bidding process for the marginal barrel. The Middle East would have been a major problem even without the continued Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and other infrastructure, which have accelerated dramatically in the past few months in both volume and effectiveness, leading to major disruptions in refinery operations and petroleum exports (see Rock Bottom). Reuters reported in August that crude oil and petroleum products shipped by major Russian export terminals on its western side were running approximately 15% below plan. Disruptions around Novorossiysk, the Russian port city on the Black Sea in southern Russia, had significantly reduced shipments, as some cargoes were running more than two weeks behind schedule following disruptions associated with Ukrainian attacks. An estimated 700 Mb/d of Russian refining capacity was knocked out between January and May across 16 refineries, twice the number hit for the same period of 2025 and the attacks and impacts have only increased since then. In fact, estimated Russian refinery throughput dropped below 4 MMb/d in July and so far in August, equal to less than 60% of capacity, the lowest level in over 20 years. Net exports of gasoline, jet fuel/kerosene and diesel products by Russia plunged from 1.2 MMb/d in January to less than 100 Mb/d by July (far right of stacked bars in Figure 3 below). Russian net diesel exports (green bar segments) crashed from just above 1 MMb/d in January to 160 Mb/d in July, with net gasoline exports (red bar segments) and jet fuel/kerosene exports (blue bar segments) even dropping into negative territory (indicating Russia was a net importer of these products in those months). We’ll note here that Russia instituted an official export ban on diesel beginning on July 8, so as that becomes fully enacted, exports have continued to fall and will approach zero. (There are always some exceptions to bans of this type.)Russian and Persian Gulf diesel has been hard to replace because of a lack of spare refining capacity and a lack of strategic reserves. We came into March with significant excess global crude production capacity and significant strategic reserves, which the world has leaned on over the past several months. Crude prices have risen meaningfully from before the U.S.-Iran war and have seen significant volatility, but these buffers have, for the most part, kept them under $100/bbl. The buffers on the refining side were much smaller, allowing for the much larger rise in crack spreads.The third piece is not the price of renewable diesel itself. It is the cost of complying with the RFS. On March 27, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) finalized the highest renewable-fuel requirements in the program's history, including a 70% reallocation of earlier small-refinery exemptions. (The required minimum is known as the Renewable Volume Obligation, or RVO.) The EPA estimates that meeting the new standards will require biodiesel and renewable diesel production and use to rise more than 60% from 2025. By early June, D4 and D6 Renewable Identification Number (RIN) prices had roughly doubled from the start of the year and were trading near record highs, as we explained in Runaway. (A RIN is the regulatory mechanism for tracking the production and blending of renewable fuels and also allows refiners and importers to prove they’ve met their RVO mandates.)Feedstocks are the other side of that equation. Strong domestic demand for soybean oil, tallow, used cooking oil and other fats has pushed those feedstocks higher relative to petroleum diesel, widening the soybean-oil-to-ULSD, or BOHO, spread. As that gap widens, the marginal biodiesel or renewable diesel producer needs a more valuable RIN to stay economic. In 2026, RIN values rose even faster than BOHO, improving producer margins but sharply increasing the compliance cost borne by obligated refiners and importers.That distinction matters for the $100/bbl number. The RIN obligation is passed through in the wholesale price of the petroleum component, so an unadjusted ULSD-minus-crude crack includes the total RVO cost embedded in the ULSD price. An obligated refiner must surrender those RINs, whether they are purchased or generated elsewhere in its system. Subtracting the per-gallon total RVO cost (multiplied by 42) gives a much better RIN-adjusted diesel crack. The physical diesel market is still extremely tight, but the headline crack overstates the margin available to an obligated refiner by the RIN component.The high cracks tell a complex story. Gulf refinery and shipping disruptions, together with the loss of Russian exports, have created a real shortage of immediately available diesel-making capacity. Strong March RVOs and a wider BOHO spread have also raised RIN costs, lifting the U.S. diesel price and the gross crack through compliance-cost pass-through. In our next blog, we’ll look at the indicators that will help tell us whether the squeeze is easing (or worsening).

U.S. Diesel Prices Hit All-Time High as Global Fuel Squeeze Deepens | OilPrice.com -The average U.S. diesel price hit a record high late on Thursday, exceeding the previous record from 2022, as the Middle East crisis tightened global fuel markets and sent prices soaring this summer. As of Thursday afternoon, the live U.S. national average price of diesel set a new record at $5.820 per gallon, according to GasBuddy data.   This average price has now surpassed the previous daily $5.819 per gallon all-time high that occurred June 17, 2022, Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said.Record-high diesel prices are a major concern, including for the U.S. economy and the interest rate path of the Fed, as diesel is essential for economic growth and inflation in the price of goods.Moreover, diesel demand is further set to grow in the coming weeks and months with the harvest season for the farmers and the holiday season for retailers, who will need to haul more goods with trucks to stock up for the holidays.Diesel markets in the United States and globally have severely tightened in recent weeks, amid crippled fuel supply from the Middle East and Russia, due to the Iran and Ukraine wars, rising seasonal demand with the harvest season, and insufficient capacity elsewhere to compensate for the lost diesel flows from the Strait of Hormuz and Russia.The re-escalation in the Middle East and the Russian ban on diesel exports amid incessant Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries pushed middle distillate cracks to record highs this week.U.S. diesel prices have been rallying this week, and now they have hit an all-time high, which analysts, including GasBuddy, expected to occur before Labor Day.Meanwhile, the national average price of gasoline at $4.125 per gallon, per GasBuddy live data, is now 92 cents above Labor Day 2025 and on track for the most expensive gasoline price in nominal terms for a Labor Day weekend ever. This Labor Day weekend will cost Americans about $1.39 billion more on gasoline spending compared to last year, GasBuddy’s De Haan said.

US diesel prices hit a record high at $5.85 pushing up transportation costs for a long list of goods  (AP) — Diesel hit a record price in the U.S. on Friday, soaring to an average of $5.85 a gallon for the first time as the six-month war with Iran disrupts the world’s flow of fuel. Because diesel is used for many freight and delivery networks, higher diesel prices mean higher transportation costs for a long list of everyday goods. Some businesses have already passed on costs to consumers in the form of added fees on online orders and packages in the mail. And shoppers may see more and more sticker shock trickle down to store shelves. One of the most immediate strains is being felt in the grocery aisle, particularly with produce, meat and other perishable foods that need to be hauled in and restocked frequently — or even harvested using diesel-powered farm equipment. It can take time for all of those costs to trickle down. Still, experts warn that price hikes could mount the longer diesel remains expensive. A range of other products are also transported by diesel trucks, trains and boats, including clothing, cosmetics and furniture.Diesel fuel has hit a new record price in the US. AP correspondent Donna Warder reports.This could add to Republicans’ political challenges ahead of November’s midterm elections, with many voters already sour on President Donald Trump’s management of the economy and fallout of the war he launched. AP-NORC polling this summer showed 2 out of 3 U.S. adults disapproved of how Trump is handling the economy.The price for regular gasoline has also been going up, although not as fast as the price of diesel. The average price was $4.15 a gallon, compared with $3.20 at this time last year, according to motor club AAA, which says gas has never been above $4 a gallon on Labor Day.American diesel prices are now nearly 56% more expensive than they were before the U.S. and Israel launched their war against Iran in late February, when the national average sat at about $3.76 per gallon per AAA. Prices quickly climbed as the cost of crude oil — the main ingredient in diesel, as well as gasoline — soared amid supply chain disruptions across the Middle East, notably with most tanker traffic bottlenecked in the key Strait of Hormuz.Despite prices cooling some during hopes for peace earlier in the summer, oil has now renewed its climb as fighting once more escalates between the U.S. and Iran. Brent crude, the international standard, was trading at more than $95 a barrel Friday, up from roughly $70 before the war. Prices at the pump always follow closely behind.  The last time businesses and drivers saw sky-high fuel prices was in June 2022, when diesel reached nearly $5.82 a gallon on average months after the Ukraine war began and world leaders imposed sanctions against Russia, a leading oil producer.When adjusted for inflation, however, prices have been higher in the past. Ahead of the 2008 financial crisis, for example, diesel hit about $4.74 a gallon — equivalent to $7.20 in 2026, according to the government’s latest data. And 2022’s record of nearly $5.82 would be about $6.56 this year when accounting for inflation.

Enbridge temporarily halts work on Line 5 reroute after 1.3M gallon gas leak -   Enbridge says it’s temporarily halting work on rerouting its Line 5 oil and gas pipeline following a gas leak in Iron County on Tuesday. The move comes after the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources asked the company to halt work until a gas leak is resolved and measures are in place to prevent future spills. Enbridge estimates around 31,000 barrels, or 1.3 million gallons, of natural gas liquids containing mainly propane and butane vaporized into the atmosphere after a subcontractor’s unoccupied truck rolled into an excavation site, striking the pipeline on Sitan Road near Saxon.Enbridge spokesperson Juli Kellner said in a statement that the safety of people, property and the environment is at the forefront of its activities. “This 48-hour period will commence on August 31, 2026, and will reinforce our existing safety practices and identify opportunities to further enhance our strong safety culture,” Kellner wrote.The company said around 150 people are responding to the leak. Local emergency crews have left the site as a private contractor has arrived to support the response. No injuries have been reported. A nearby home was evacuated, and power was shut off to 55 residents. Electricity was restored Thursday to all but five homeowners. Line 5 remains shut down.Enbridge began using trailer-mounted flare stacks that were brought in over the weekend to begin burning off around 2,000 barrels, or 84,000 gallons, of remaining natural gas liquids in a safe and controlled manner.“Extensive air monitoring will continue during this work, at the flare site, the incident site, and in the surrounding area,” Kellner said. “While monitoring continues to show safe air quality where crews are working, the half mile evacuation zone around the incident remains in place, as does the ‘no-fly’ zone over the site issued by the Iron County Sheriff.”The company has been working with refineries to reduce the effects of the shutdown and hopes to restore service to the pipeline by Sept. 5. Enbridge’s Line 5 carries up to 23 million gallons of crude oil and natural gas liquids daily from Superior to Sarnia, Ontario. Construction of Enbridge’s $1 billion reroute of Line 5 has been ongoing. The company is building a new 41-mile stretch around the Bad River Band of Lake Superior Chippewa’s reservation in Ashland and Iron counties. The 30-inch pipeline runs 645 miles from Superior through northern Wisconsin and Michigan to Sarnia, Ontario.Enbridge said construction crews have completed about 65 percent of the Line 5 reroute around the reservation of the Bad River tribe. Crews have finished boring 25 underground tunnels to install the pipe and completed horizontal directional drilling at three sites. The company has now reached peak construction with around 700 workers on the project.Details of the leak still remain unknown. It’s not clear what led the truck to roll into the excavation site. In a Thursday letter, DNR Secretary Karen Hyun said the agency is “deeply concerned” by the spill and “immensely frustrated” by other events where the company has failed to comply with state regulations.The DNR has asked for multiple details on the release. On Friday, the agency said it may halt work on the company’s project to enforce compliance with state permits granted to Enbridge. The DNR said it hasn’t been authorized to access the site due to safety concerns, and the federal Pipeline Hazardous Materials Safety Administration is the lead agency on site. An investigator from PHMSA has been deployed to investigate the incident.In 2020, Enbridge proposed the reroute after the Bad River tribe sued the company in 2019 to shut down and remove Line 5 from tribal lands where Enbridge lacked easements for the pipeline. Three years ago, a federal judge found the company was trespassing and ordered Enbridge to pay roughly $5 million and shut down or reroute Line 5 by June of this year. The tribe and Enbridge appealed the decision, and the shutdown order was placed on hold this year.Earlier this month, a federal appeals panel ruled that Enbridge has been trespassing and must remove the pipeline from the Bad River reservation, but it gave the company more time to complete the Line 5 reroute.At least four releases of drilling fluid, or frac-outs, have occurred on the Line 5 project, ranging from roughly 5 gallons to up to 1,900 gallons spilled in late June. A DNR spokesperson said the agency has issued four notices of non-compliance on the project, all of which have been resolved.

LINE 5 SHUTDOWN – Canada /U.S. Economic Collaborations Becoming Even More Complicated - Since October 1, 1977, the Enbridge Line 5 has been protected by a 1977 treaty between the United States and Canada regarding the flow of oil and natural gas across borders. The treaty has specific language regarding the rights of both countries and is enacted: “Believing that pipelines can be an efficient, economical and safe means of transporting hydrocarbons from producing areas to consumers, in both Canada and the United States.” Article II of the treaty states “No public authority in the territory of either Party shall institute any measures, other than those provided for in Article V, which are intended to, or which would have the effect of, impeding, diverting, redirecting or interfering with in any way the transmission of hydrocarbon in transit.” The shutdown of Line 5 has been the focus of Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer since 2019, and that fight has held the spotlight for years. But a quieter dispute has been flying under the radar for many years. About 12 miles of Enbridge’s Line 5 pipeline runs across the Bad River Band of Lake Superior’s reservation along the shores of Lake Superior. The tribe sued Enbridge in 2019 to force the company to remove the section from its land, arguing land easements allowing operation expired six years earlier and the 73-year-old pipeline was prone to a catastrophic spill. In 2023, a federal judge gave Enbridge 3 years to close Line 5 on Bad River tribal land, giving the company until June 2026 to remove the segment from the reservation. The Bad River and conservation groups want the line completely shut down and have kept the reroute project tied up with legal challenges. Impacts of a Possible Shutdown According to Enbridge’s analyses, published on their website, the ramifications of the shutdown of Line 5 are clearly equally detrimental to both U.S. and Canadian economies. “Shutting down Line 5 would have immediate and severe consequences on the economies of Michigan, Ohio, Ontario, and elsewhere. Refineries served by Enbridge in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Ontario and Quebec would receive approximately 45% less crude from Enbridge than their current demand. Michigan would face a 756,000-US-gallons-per-day propane supply shortage, since there are no short-term alternatives for transporting NGL to market.” In the current complicated and uneven energy landscape shaped by geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Canada as well as abroad, the deadline delivered by the U.S. judge is critical.     Information from PBF Energy, which operates one of two refineries in Toledo, provides perspective on the impact of a total Line 5 shutdown – whether for a reroute or for other reasons.

• “ A Line 5 shutdown would put Ohio refineries at risk. The closure of one of those refineries could result in the loss of $5.4 billion in annual economic output to Ohio and southeast Michigan, and the loss of thousands of direct and contracted skilled trades jobs.
• A Line 5 shutdown would compromise crude supply to 10 refineries in the region to varying degrees, directly affecting fuel prices.
• Closing Line 5 would hurt Ohio and Michigan economies and threaten union jobs.
• There are no viable options for replacing the volume of light crude delivered by Line 5, with rail able to provide less than 10% of that volume.
• A Line 5 shutdown puts at least 15% of northwest Ohio’s fuel supply at risk, as well as more than half of the jet fuel supplies for the Detroit Metro Airport.”

By February 2026, an administrative law judge upheld Enbridge’s state wetlands permit, removing the project’s last legal hurdle and clearing the way for construction. On Feb 24, 2026, Enbridge started the Line 5 reroute around Bad River Reservation. Just last month, on July 30^th, a U.S. Federal Appeals Court affirmed that Enbridge had trespassed on Bad River Reservation, rejecting Enbridge’s challenge to the ordered Line 5 reroute and involving a recalculation of millions in awards for damages. So the latest development in this long saga of roadblocks to U.S./Canadian energy collaboration and energy security comes at the worst time- when U.S. and Canadian leaders are at loggerheads in a storm of retaliatory tariffs and measures that are becoming at times as ridiculous as the renaming of Lake Ontario. Last week, a collision resulted in a leak of natural gas liquids less than five miles east of the Bad River Band of Lake Superior Chippewa Indians Reservation, shutting down Line 5, which continues to be shut down this week as emergency response continues. On Tuesday, August 25th, a parked, unoccupied semi-truck rolled into the pipeline, striking it and resulting in the release of natural gas liquids, with witnesses reporting large white plumes of smoke emitting from the rupture. The section of pipeline was exposed at an open excavation site for a valve repair project near Saxon, Wisconsin, a section of the pipeline approximately 1.5 miles away from an ongoing project to re-route the pipeline so that it no longer passes through the Bad River Reservation. Local U.S. media reports that Enbridge currently estimates the return to service of Line 5 between Aug. 31 and Sept. 5, 2026. Considering the profound impacts of a Line 5 closure, even a brief shutdown, Canadian media is strangely quiet about this incident that would have wide impacts on operations in both countries-in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Ontario and Quebec.

EIA: US crude inventories down 4.5 million bbl | Oil & Gas Journal - US crude oil inventories for the week ended Aug. 28, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, decreased by 4.5 million bbl from the previous week, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). At 424.5 million bbl, US crude oil inventories are about 1% above the 5-year average for this time of year, the EIA report indicated. EIA said total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.2 million bbl from last week and are 6% below the 5-year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories increased while blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 800,000 bbl last week and are 14% below the 5-year average for this time of year. Propane-propylene inventories decreased by 2.1 million bbl from last week and are 25% above the 5-year average for this time of year, EIA said. US crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17.5 million b/d for the week ended Aug. 28, which was 102,000 b/d more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 98% of capacity. Gasoline production increased, averaging 9.8 million b/d. Distillate fuel production decreased, averaging 5.1 million b/d. US crude oil imports averaged 6.8 million b/d, up 612,000 b/d from the previous week. Over the last 4 weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.7 million b/d, 2% more than the same 4-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports averaged 370,000 b/d. Distillate fuel imports averaged 113,000 b/d.

Turn, Turn, Turn — Commodity Price Swings Reshape E&P Earnings in Q2 2026 | RBN Energy  --The second quarter of 2026 was a tale of two commodity markets for U.S. exploration and production companies. A 29% quarter-over-quarter increase in WTI oil prices to $92.53/bbl provided a more powerful tailwind for Oil-Weighted E&Ps, who experienced a pre-tax operating profit turnaround with a war-driven late Q1 price surge. In stark contrast, plunging natural gas prices wounded Gas-Weighted producers after bountiful Q1 results. In today’s RBN blog, we review the Q2 2026 results of the 37 publicly traded E&Ps we cover and analyze the remarkably wide performance gap they reveal.The oil price climb (gray line and right axis in Figure 1 below) from the Iran conflict and a spike in natural gas prices driven by an unusually cold winter across the eastern U.S. combined to double the average pre-tax profits for our 37-company universe from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026 to $15.12/boe, the highest result since mid-2023. The continuing rise in oil prices spurred another 31% increase in pre-tax operating profits in Q2 2026 to $19.83/boe (far-right blue bar and left axis), the richest since 2022. Cash flow also reached a post-2022 peak, increasing 8% to $29.72/boe (far-right orange bar and left axis). Upstream revenues rose 6% to $44.67/boe. Costs provided little resistance to the improvement in commodity realizations. Lifting costs increased 2% to $12.71/boe, primarily because of a 16% increase in price-sensitive production taxes to $2.50/boe. Production costs declined 1% to $10.20/boe, while depreciation, depletion and amortization (DD&A) expenses increased 2% to $11.78/boe. Impairment charges, which had weighed heavily on earnings in recent quarters, virtually disappeared, declining 97% to just $0.09/boe, while exploration expenses fell 25% to $0.26/boe.  However, the overall results show a wide variation in returns between companies with different portfolio weightings. The Oil-Weighted E&Ps more than doubled earnings and generated $40.16/boe of cash flow, while the Diversified producers also benefited handsomely from stronger crude prices. Gas-Weighted E&Ps moved sharply in the opposite direction, with earnings plunging 75% as Appalachian gas prices collapsed. With oil prices already retreating in the third quarter and Permian natural gas prices staging a dramatic recovery, the commodity-price deck is shifting again. The Q2 improvement was overwhelmingly a price story rather than a volume or cost story. Oil and gas production, at just under 1.5 billion boe, was up about 1% from Q1 2026. With production and underlying costs little changed, higher commodity realizations flowed directly through to revenues and the bottom line. The near disappearance of impairment charges provided an additional boost to reported earnings, although the rise in cash flow — which is unaffected by those non-cash charges — confirms the underlying improvement in operating performance. The earnings of the Oil-Weighted E&Ps more than doubled in Q2 2026 to $25.97/boe (far-right blue bar and left axis in Figure 2 below), up from $12.74/boe in Q1 2026 as WTI oil prices (gray line and right axis) surged 29% to $92.53/bbl. Cash flow (far-right orange bar and left axis) increased 38% to $40.16/boe, while upstream revenues rose 29% to $54.21/boe. However, extremely weak Waha natural gas prices somewhat dampened the revenue boost, averaging -$3.04/MMBtu during the quarter. The results demonstrate the considerable operating leverage these producers have to crude prices. A 29% increase in WTI was accompanied by a 104% increase in per-unit earnings, as most operating costs changed little compared with the first quarter. Cash flow responded less dramatically but still increased faster than crude prices, rising 38%. The primary cost offset was production taxes, which typically move with commodity prices and increased 30% to $3.39/boe. Four companies earned more than $2 billion during the quarter. ConocoPhillips led the way, posting a profit of $6.2 billion and generating $9.2 billion in cash flow. Occidental Petroleum earned $3 billion while generating nearly $5 billion in cash flow, Diamondback Energy posted a $2.5 billion profit and $3.8 billion in cash flow, and Devon Energy earned $2.3 billion while generating $3.7 billion. On a per-unit basis, California Resources posted the largest profit at $37.72/boe, while Talos Energy registered the strongest cash flow at nearly $60/boe.Reported oil and gas production by the peer group was down 3.1% in Q2 2026, primarily because of the impact of the Coterra Energy-Devon Energy merger, which closed May 7. Excluding Devon Energy from the comparison, peer-group oil and gas production was flat during the quarter. That lack of organic volume growth further underscores that Q2’s earnings improvement resulted primarily from stronger crude prices rather than increased production.For company-by-company results, including details on lifting costs, production costs, production taxes, DD&A expenses, impairment charges and exploration expenses, expand the tables below.The Diversified E&Ps also had a strong second quarter, with profits surging 71% to $20.90/boe (far-right blue bar and left axis in Figure 3 below). Cash flow (far-right orange bar and left axis) increased 16% to $32.93/boe, while upstream revenues rose 13% to $44.80/boe on the back of strong crude prices (gray line and right axis). Total costs declined 13% to $23.89/boe, primarily because of the near elimination of impairment charges. Lifting costs increased 4% to $11.87/boe as price-sensitive production taxes jumped 16% to $2.60/boe, while production costs increased just 1% to $9.27/boe. Impairment charges fell 96% to $0.16/boe, while exploration expenses increased 9% to $0.49/boe. EOG Resources posted the largest profit among the Diversified E&Ps at $2.2 billion while generating $3.3 billion in cash flow. Continental Resources was the only other company to eclipse the $1 billion earnings threshold, reporting $1.1 billion and generating $1.7 billion in cash flow. SM Energy ($987 million), APA Corp. ($981 million) and Ovintiv ($978 million) were close behind, with each generating between $1.5 billion and $1.6 billion in cash flow. On a per-unit basis, Magnolia Oil & Gas posted the group's highest earnings at $28.35/boe, while Murphy Oil led in cash flow at $45.36/boe.Oil and gas production by the group increased 0.6% to 418.3 MMboe in Q2 2026. SM Energy and Infinity Natural Resources posted production gains of 20% and 18%, respectively, largely reflecting acquisitions completed earlier this year.For company-by-company results, expand the table below.The Gas-Weighted E&Ps moved in the opposite direction during Q2. Earnings plunged 75% to $4.14/boe (far-right blue bar and left axis in Figure 4 below) as Appalachian gas prices (Transco Zone 6; gray line and right axis) fell sharply from $12.41/MMBtu to $2.24/MMBtu. Cash flow (far-right orange bar and left axis) declined 55% to $9.91/boe, while realized prices dropped 42% to $17.84/boe. Lower commodity prices did provide some relief on costs. Lifting costs declined 8% to $7.92/boe as production taxes fell 40% to $0.39/boe, while production costs declined 5% to $7.53/boe. DD&A expenses increased 6% to $5.67/boe. Impairment charges increased 73%, but remained negligible at just $0.03/boe, while exploration expenses declined 19% to $0.07/boe. The dramatic reversal from Q1 illustrates the Gas-Weighted group’s earnings sensitivity to short-term changes in commodity prices. Appalachian natural gas had been an important contributor to Q1 results, but the collapse in regional pricing erased much of that benefit just one quarter later. Unlike the Oil-Weighted E&Ps, whose relatively stable operating costs magnified the impact of rising crude prices, the Gas-Weighted E&Ps faced the same operating leverage working in reverse. EQT Corp. posted the largest profit and cash flow in the peer group during Q2 2026 at $369 million and $1.1 billion, respectively. Antero Resources ranked second in profits at $269 million, while Expand Energy was second in cash flow generation at $968 million. On a per-unit basis, Diversified Energy was the most profitable company in the Gas-Weighted group, earning $10.79/boe and generating a peer-leading $16.23/boe in cash flow. Its outperformance also illustrates the importance of commodity mix during the quarter. Although classified as a Gas-Weighted E&P, 14% of Diversified Energy's production was oil and another 15% was NGLs. That 29% liquids exposure provided an earnings buffer to weak natural gas prices.Oil and gas production by the gas-focused peer group increased 2% from the prior quarter. Comstock Resources posted a 15% gain, reflecting strong Haynesville drilling results, while Antero Resources increased production 9%, primarily through acquisitions.For company-by-company results, expand the table below.

BLM Moves to Fast-Track Oil Permits in Alaska Petroleum Reserve - The Bureau of Land Management wants to cut the permitting time for some oil and gas projects in Alaska’s National Petroleum Reserve to as little as 60 days, according to a Friday press release. The proposed rule would replace separate case-by-case reviews for qualifying production sites with a standardized process covering common, repeatable activities that BLM says have already been studied extensively. Rights-of-way and some drilling permit applications meeting predetermined criteria could receive decisions within 60 days. The National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska covers roughly 23 million acres on Alaska’s North Slope. About 3.5 million acres are currently under lease. There are considerably more leases to develop after this year. BLM’s March NPR-A auction drew bids on 187 tracts and generated more than $163 million, the highest revenue ever collected in a lease sale for the reserve. The auction also produced the largest number of tracts receiving bids and the second-largest acreage total sold in a single NPR-A sale. ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, and a Repsol-Shell consortium were among the successful bidders. Getting acreage leased and getting oil out of it are two very different timelines in Alaska. Operators still need drilling permits, rights-of-way and approvals for roads, pipelines, pads and other permanent infrastructure. BLM says more than two decades of permitting work in the reserve gives it enough environmental data to standardize reviews for projects similar to infrastructure already approved there. The proposal followed a petition from the Alaska Oil and Gas Association requesting a uniform approval process and a 60-day timeline for qualifying projects. BLM is preparing an environmental impact statement alongside the new rule. The agency has already rescinded a 2024 rule that restricted development in the reserve and reopened nearly 82% of the NPR-A to oil and gas leasing. The administration has also expanded leasing elsewhere in Alaska, including this year’s first auction of drilling rights in the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. The NPR-A proposal now enters a 60-day public comment period ending November 9. For companies holding acreage from the record March auction, the more immediate number is 60 days, which is the proposed clock for turning at least some permit applications into decisions.

Harvest Pushes Back Timeline for Reviving Alaska LNG Imports -Harvest Midstream said it is now aiming for early 2029 to begin importing LNG at the long dormant Kenai terminal in Alaska.   At a Glance:

• Kenai LNG being repurposed
• Harvest had targeted 2028 startup
• Facility would serve Railbelt demand

LNG Canada Feedgas Demand Hits Six-Month Low Amid July Flare Repairs - LNG Canada's Kitimat terminal drew less feedgas in July than in any month since January, with export volumes falling over the same period as crews worked through mechanical repairs, according to regulatory and Kpler data.  At a Glance:

• July exports fell to 10 cargoes
• Flare tip replaced during July repairs
• BC pipeline limits pinned Station 2

The Waiting Is the Hardest Part – West Coast LPG Export Capacity Set to Jump Next Year and Beyond | RBN Energy  - The startup of two propane export terminals in British Columbia since 2019 has helped drive significant growth of Western Canadian LPG exports to Asia over the past several years, averaging nearly 150 Mb/d last year. With limited opportunities for expansions at those two terminals, as well as one in Washington state, AltaGas and partner Vopak have been busy building the first phase of what they hope will eventually become a 200-Mb/d (or larger) LPG export facility. The Ridley Island Energy Export Facility (REEF) will also be Canada’s first marine facility to move butane. In today’s RBN blog, the second of this short series, we’ll go over industry plans to more than double LPG export capacity on North America’s west coast over the next several years.  As we said in Part 1, AltaGas recently announced a short delay to the planned startup of its 56-Mb/d REEF project on the northwestern coast of British Columbia (BC) from year-end 2026 to March 2027. Phase 1 of REEF is expected to be the first of several planned projects to add LPG export capacity along the BC coast over the next few years. That is coming at the same time that more LNG export capacity is also being built (see our Shut Up and Drive mini-series), and more crude oil pipeline capacity to the west coast is also in the works, as industry and governments in Canada look to expand hydrocarbon exports and further diversify customer bases.Total LPG marine export capacity from the area is currently about 180 Mb/d, comprised of 85 Mb/d of propane capacity at AltaGas and Vopak’s Ridley Island Propane Export Terminal (RIPET; orange diamond in Figure 1 below) near Prince Rupert, BC; 25 Mb/d of propane capacity at Pembina Pipeline’s Prince Rupert Terminal (PRT; blue diamond) about a mile east of RIPET; and 70 Mb/d of propane/butane capacity at AltaGas’s Ferndale facility (dark-green diamond) in Washington state. Japan, South Korea, and increasingly China have bought the vast majority of west coast LPG exports in recent years.

Trans Mountain Expects to Add 90 Mb/d Capacity by Year-End   - The Trans Mountain pipeline's owner Trans Mountain Corporation said in its Q2 results press release on August 28 that it expects to increase the pipeline's "nominal system capacity by approximately 90,000 bpd by the end of 2026". Previously the company had been pointing to an early 2027 completion of the planned 90 Mb/d Drag-Reducing Agent (DRA) project (see our blog Kind of a Drag for an explanation of drag-reducing agents).Volumes on the pipeline system averaged 840 Mb/d in Q2, or 94% utilization of the system's 890 Mb/d capacity, an increase of 137 Mb/d vs. Q2 2025. Approximately 510 Mb/d went to the Westridge marine terminal for export, which saw 82 vessels loaded in the quarter vs. 56 in Q2 2025, 96 Mb/d was delivered to British Columbia receipt points, and 234 Mb/d delivered by pipeline to Washington State. While China continued to receive the bulk of exports out of the Westridge terminal, Q2 also saw an increase to shipments to India/Brunei (see green bars in the chart below).The target year-end 2028 start-up timing for the 210 Mb/d Mainline Optimization Project (MOP) was reiterated in the press release.

Canadian Refinery Runs - August Update | RBN Energy - Weekly Canadian refinery crude oil runs saw a dip in July, but had since recovered (see red line in left chart below), according to weekly data through August 4 released by the Canadian Energy Regulator on August 25. The drop in utilization was in Ontario (see red line in right chart below) and likely reflects unplanned downtime at the Nanticoke refinery noted by Imperial Oil on its Q2 conference call. Year-to-date through August 4, Canadian refinery crude throughput has averaged 1.634 Million b/d, up about 54 Mb/d year-over-year (see table below), boosted by a lack of downtime at refineries east of Ontario (see green line in right chart above). Note that this data is based on voluntary submissions from refinery operators, and excludes data for FCL's 130 Mb/d refinery in Regina, Saskatchewan.

‘Who knows if it will survive’: Experts question how long Trump’s Venezuela oil deal will last – --Oil company executives and Venezuela experts are looking skeptically at the Trump administration’s $100 billion plan to boost Venezuelan oil production, raising questions about whether the deal will yield significant oil any time soon — or ever. Under the deal the White House announced Monday, the United States would receive a 35 percent stake in oil company North American Blue Energy Partners to drill for oil in Venezuela, the latest instance of the Trump administration taking shares in a private business. As part of the deal, the U.S. would have “preferential access” to 20 percent of the oil the company produces at cost. The partnership, if successful, would kick-start oil production in Venezuela, something President Donald Trump has wanted since his administration plucked Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro from power in January. Trump and the GOP are promoting increased imports of Venezuelan crude into the United States as a possible balm for the high fuel prices that have plagued voters since the U.S. launched its attacks against Iran in late February.  Oil executives are warning, however, that the fields targeted for production will take years to develop and expressed little confidence that the White House announced with a company few are familiar with would lead to much.“Fuck all, what is this?” said an executive at one oil company granted anonymity to speak frankly about the administration’s plans. “This thing is way too big for a company with no capabilities and no credibility.” Some in Caracas, too, said the Trump administration’s support should extend to a wider range of firms, especially smaller operators.“Investing in one company could be a starting point, but I think it needs a bigger approach,” said Alejandro Sucre, a Caracas-based investor who is pitching a fund backing oil and mining projects in Venezuela. “You’re not going to give 65 billion barrels of reserves to one company, right? That doesn’t make any sense.”It’s not just industry officials expressing doubt. Giving the U.S. ownership of an asset seen as a national treasure is already drawing heat from across the political spectrum, according to Liliana Diaz, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center.“The criticism is arriving from opposite directions,” Diaz said. ”Hardliners object on sovereignty over the resource. The opposition objects on constitutional legitimacy. Something attacked from both flanks at once tends not to last, whatever its economics.”NABEP has become one of the largest private operators in Venezuela in recent years. The agreement gives the Barbados-based company the right to develop 65 billion barrels of crude across 17 Venezuelan fields and includes a near-term goal of increasing production to more than 1 million barrels a day.

Energy Secretary Wright Says Venezuela Could More Than Double Oil Production Venezuela’s crude oil production rate could double in the next few years thanks to new deals set to be signed with U.S. and other foreign energy companies, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has said. “The investment in these deals will massively grow available oil production, which will give downward pressure on oil prices, but the biggest kink right now in gasoline and diesel prices is refining capacity,” Wright said during a one-day visit to Caracas, as quoted by OilPrice. Venezuela’s peak oil production rate was about 3 million barrels daily, but that was in the late 1990s. Since then, amid U.S. sanctions and underinvestment, production has dropped to 1.25 million barrels daily this year. Exports are running slightly above 1 million barrels daily, with the biggest portion going to U.S. refiners along the Gulf Coast.Last week, news broke that the U.S. federal government was negotiating a direct ownership stake in the country’s high-yield field that contains combined reserves of 90 billion barrels of crude. At the end of last week, President Trump called the deal “historic”, covering 17 fields with target production of 1.5 million barrels per day. The deal will involve a U.S.-based company owned by a Venezuelan tycoon, which has already been granted 14 oil deals by the Venezuelan government.The U.S. government will have rights to a 35% stake in the company plus access to 20% of North American Blue Energy Partners’ production at cost. The U.S. federal government will also have the right of first refusal for the purchase of the other 80% of NABEP’s production from Venezuelan fields.Analysts have noted that such a major boost in Venezuelan crude oil production would require substantial investments, with Rystad Energy putting the total at some $180 billion, which would need to be invested over the next ten years.

Feedstock Is Not Fuel: Why Venezuelan Crude Is No Near-Term Fix   - On August 27 2026, President Trump announced what he called the biggest oil deal in world history — a US-Venezuela agreement giving the United States majority control of more than 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan reserves, which he said would “substantially lower Gas Prices for all Americans.” The pitch landed with gasoline near $4.09 a gallon, about 27% higher than a year earlier and on track for the most expensive August on record, as a six-month Iran war and the Hormuz disruption kept a fifth of world supply under strain — and with the midterms two months away. Independent analysts noted the arithmetic fails on that timeline: the 30 to 50 million barrels Trump floated is less than half a day of global consumption, the 65 billion is an in-ground estimate rather than available supply, and any price effect would take years. Miller’s briefing goes underneath that objection to the more fundamental one: Venezuelan crude is the wrong substance to fix the shortage Americans feel at the pump. It is not a magical fix. In the near term it is not a fix at all. The shortage that bites right now is in product — diesel and jet fuel — and extra-heavy Venezuelan crude is not product. It is refinery feedstock. You cannot relieve a middle-distillate shortage with a barrel that still has to be diluted, blended, upgraded, coked, and hydroprocessed before it yields a usable gallon of anything. This is why the “turn Venezuela on” reflex fails on its own terms. Even setting aside whether Caracas can produce more, the barrels that already exist do not add supply where the market is tight. Prompt US cargoes would largely be diverted from Venezuela’s current buyers — China, India, Europe — not created on top of global production. That reshuffles refinery slates and trade routes; it does not repair a physical shortage. A barrel moved from a Chinese refiner to a US one is a change of address, not a new barrel, and certainly not a new gallon of jet fuel. The nature of the crude is the reason. Roughly three-quarters of Venezuelan production through 2028 is expected to be heavy, extra-heavy, or bitumen, with the Orinoco Belt supplying about 60%. That material is the raw input at the very front of the conversion process; the finished distillate barrel sits many capital-intensive steps downstream — coking and hydroprocessing capacity, hydrogen, refinery uptime, yields, distribution — none of which a cargo of Merey crude supplies. The price tells the same story: Merey 16 averaged $67.36/bbl in July 2026, about $12.35 under the OPEC basket, the market pricing in the cost of converting this crude into something useful. Venezuela cannot repair a current crude or middle-distillate shortage, because the missing piece was never the crude. Nor can the volume be conjured quickly. July 2026 output was near 1.1 million b/d — about a third of the 3.4 million b/d peak of 1998 — and the system that would lift it has been hollowed out: the EIA documents pipelines over 50 years old, power outages, constrained diluent, and impaired refineries, with PDVSA estimating some $8 billion for pipelines alone. Rystad puts full-cycle breakevens at $70–$80/bbl or higher and its base case adds only about 194,000 b/d through 4Q 2028; a return toward 3 million b/d would take well over $150 billion across 10–15 years. Large in-ground reserves, Miller stresses, are not deliverable supply — and the 65 billion barrels in the President’s announcement is exactly that kind of number: a resource estimate, not a delivery schedule. The strongest confirmation is not a model but the behavior of the companies that would have to fund the rebuild. At the White House on January 9 2026, shortly after the US removal of Maduro, Trump insisted the industry would spend more than $100 billion to rebuild Venezuela’s oil sector. The room did not agree. ExxonMobil’s Darren Woods told the President to his face that Venezuela is, as it stands, “uninvestable” — that durable legal frameworks, commercial terms, and stability must come first, and that Exxon would send only a technical team to assess. ConocoPhillips’ Ryan Lance said the system needs major restructuring first; both firms had their assets expropriated under Chávez, and by 30 January both Exxon and Chevron said they had no plans to raise Venezuela spending that year. The figures put before that meeting matched Miller’s: Rystad estimated roughly $110 billion merely to double output by 2030, and closer to $185 billion to climb back toward 2000-era levels. Also, Paul Saladino: "We have to deal with all the issues of collapsed infrastructure and a failed state." The one enthusiast underscores the point. Chevron — the sole US major already producing there, at nearly 250,000 b/d under a special license — says it could raise flows about 50% in under two years, but even that lifts Venezuela’s total only to just above 1.1 million b/d, against a peak near 4 million. Smaller entrants like Hunt Oil and SLB signed the first fresh PDVSA deals in August, but the supermajors best equipped to finance a rebuild are, on the record, declining to write the checks. When the people holding the capital call a resource uninvestable, it is not a near-term supply solution. Venezuela is a long-duration heavy-crude redevelopment option, not an emergency supply source — and specifically not a fuel solution. Existing cargoes can be rerouted, but that changes trade maps without adding a net barrel or a finished gallon; meaningful new production is years and well over a hundred billion dollars away, and the firms who would fund it have said so out loud. Whatever the “biggest oil deal in world history” is worth over a decade, it will not lower the price of diesel or jet fuel this year. The distillate shortage will not be solved in Caracas.

European Heat Widens LNG Price Premium Over Asia as Storage Clock Ticks - Cooling demand forecasts eased across both Europe and Asia this week, but European natural gas buyers are raising competitive bids for US LNG volumes as thin storage and Middle East supply risk outweigh temperatures.  At a Glance:
TTF holds premium over JKM
Feedgas recovers from maintenance lows
Edouard spares Gulf gas production

Europe’s Fight for LNG Puts TTF Back on the Upswing - European natural gas prices spiked Monday as competition with Asia for LNG cargoes intensified amid renewed clashes between the United States and Iran.  European Union natural gas storage chart showing inventories at 64.7% full as of Aug. 29, 2026, below the five-year average, with historical storage levels from 2021 through 2026. At a Glance:
Europe’s LNG imports highest since April
Asian demand remains strong
Hot weather forecast for both regions

Inflamed US-Iran Tensions Imperil Hormuz Shipping, Stoke LNG Supply Fears - Escalating US-Iran hostilities this week raised fresh concerns over prolonged disruptions to energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. The flare-up added to already simmering concerns about global LNG supply and could add demand for American exports — and impact pricing — should the war drag into the winter months.Map of Persian Gulf LNG import and export terminals near the Strait of Hormuz, including QatarEnergy, Al Zour, Bahrain LNG and UAE facilities.   At a Glance:
US-Iran tensions flare up again
Hormuz vessel traffic pressured
Global LNG supplies at high risk

VLCC Freight Surge Squeezes the Asia Arb | RBN Energy - The cost to charter a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) has quickly emerged as a growing headwind for U.S. Gulf Coast crude exports to Asia. Voyage costs for VLCCs to Asia surged 38% last week to $25.61 million per voyage (far right of green line in chart below), the highest since early March, when rates skyrocketed to above $29 million at the onset of the War in Iran. This recent move marks a sharp escalation in the cost of placing U.S. barrels into Asian markets and stands in stark contrast to USGC-to-Europe Aframax rates (red line in chart below), which fell 14% over the same period. As discussed in our Crude Voyager, this divergence has shifted relative freight economics increasingly in favor of shorter-haul Atlantic Basin movements, while raising the hurdle for U.S. crude to clear into Asia. The freight spike is particularly noteworthy given the simultaneous buildup in VLCC activity around the Gulf. Nine VLCCs entered the region last week, the highest count in six weeks, while five departed, leaving a sizable pipeline of vessels positioned for upcoming export programs. That creates an interesting tension in the market: vessel activity points toward stronger long-haul exports, but the cost of moving those barrels east has risen substantially. If VLCC rates remain elevated, Gulf Coast crude differentials or the Brent-WTI spread may need to weaken or widen, respectively, to restore Asian export economics.

Panic as oil spill pollutes Nembe Creek in Bayelsa There is panic in several fishing communities in Nembe Local Government Area of Bayelsa State following an oil spill from crude loading operations at Nembe Creek oilfield. The Nembe Creek oilfield within Oil Mining Lease 29 (OML) is operated by Nembe Exploration & Production Limited, formerly Aiteo Eastern Exploration and Production Limited. Sold Out Again: New Razor-Thin Wallet Locator Is Taking The US By Storm A field report by Environmental Conservation Agriculture and Rural Development (ECARD) stated that it observed crude oil along the creek and mangrove banks. Its Lead Field Monitor, Chief Alagoa Morris, said the pungent smell of crude oil became noticeable about two kilometres from Nembe Creek during the visit. ECARD said the spill had spread to several fishing settlements, with residents reporting loss of fishing activities and damage to fishing equipment. The paramount ruler of Nembe Creek communities, HRH Agent Waya, said the incident had worsened the hardship faced by residents. Waya said the community reported the spill to naval personnel after Aiteo officials allegedly failed to respond immediately to their concerns. He said women from the affected communities later protested at the Aiteo facility, demanding relief materials, assessment of damages and compensation. According to him, the affected communities requested relief materials within three days because residents could no longer engage in fishing. Waya said the spill reportedly occurred while crude oil was being loaded into a barge, which subsequently tilted and discharged crude into the river. He listed Mile 1, Mile 2, Mile 3, Roka, Williamkiri, Atonbarakiri, Korukiri and Madam Wanwakiri among the affected communities. Others, he said, included Ewelesuo, Kpongbokiri, Victorkiri, ‘Abuja’ 1, 2 and 3, Pipeline 1, 2, 3 and 4, Kalakububogo and Etikiri. The women leader, Mrs Ebi Otokolo, said the pollution had made the river waters unusable for fishing, domestic activities and other livelihood purposes. She said residents had been forced to remain indoors because of the crude oil odour, while fishermen could no longer access their means of livelihood. A community woman, Mrs Love Mark, said some fishing nets contaminated by crude oil had become unusable. Mark said individual fishing nets cost between N150,000 and N170,000, adding that affected residents needed urgent assistance from the operator. Also, a former youth president of neighbouring Ewelesuo community, Mr Daukoru Benjaka, called for the inclusion of the community and its fishing camps in the Joint Investigation Visit. Benjaka said the spill had affected fish catches and other aquatic resources, including periwinkles, while threatening the survival of fishing communities. ECARD said its observations showed substantial crude oil on the water and along mangrove roots, despite residents’ reports that tidal movement had thinned the pollution. The organisation said rising tides could carry crude oil deeper into the mangrove ecosystem and further affect aquatic organisms, including crabs, oysters and periwinkles. ECARD said information from the Bayelsa Ministry of Environment and Nembe Oil and Gas Committee indicated that the Joint Investigation Visit had identified operational failure as the cause. However, it said the volume of crude spilled and the extent of the affected area remained inconclusive as of Aug. 26. The organisation said the latest incident was part of a history of oil spills associated with operations in OML 29.

Iran seizes bulk carrier after alleged oil and sludge discharge - Iranian authorities have seized a bulk carrier carrying sugar after accusing it of dumping oil, bilge water and industrial sludge into the Strait of Hormuz, state media reported on Monday. Esmaeil Makizadeh, deputy head of Hormozgan’s Ports and Maritime Department, told IRNA that the vessel was seized after images showed oil being discharged into the sea. “Following the publication of images of the discharge of oil into the sea… expert and clean-up teams were dispatched to the site and seized the ship causing the pollution,” Makizadeh said. He said the bulk carrier had dumped a mixture of burnt oil, bilge water and industrial sludge directly into the sea. The department said the pollution spread into several small slicks because of sea currents, but clean-up teams contained the waste. The waste has since been removed from the water, and the vessel has been handed over to the judiciary, Makizadeh said. Iranian authorities did not identify the ship or say which country it was flagged in. They also did not provide the nationalities of the crew. The seizure comes after several oil spills in the region in recent weeks. Iran has demanded compensation over some of the incidents, including an oil spill near its Qeshm island. Earlier in August, an oil slick was also spotted near neighbouring Oman after a tanker ran aground. AFP found that the tanker had been stranded for weeks near Oman’s Al-Qibliyyah island after explosions damaged it. Iran has maintained control over the Strait of Hormuz since the outbreak of the Middle East war in February. Iran has also said it plans to charge fees on vessels passing through the strait to help pay for services, including environmental protection. The United States strongly opposes the proposed fees. The bulk carrier remains under judicial proceedings in Iran after authorities said the pollution had been cleaned up.

Oil Prices Jump over 2% after US Attacks Iran  --  Oil prices climbed more than 2% on Monday after the United States carried out strikes against Iran’s Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting an Iranian response and raising fresh concerns over the security of a vital global energy route. Brent crude futures rose $2.51, or 2.85%, to $90.61 a barrel by 0241 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude gained $2.13, or 2.55%, to $85.53. The increase came as the war on Iran entered its sixth month and efforts to restore normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained stalled. US officials told media that its forces struck two launchers on Iran's Larak Island on Sunday, a move that Tehran stated would garner a response. The Islamic Republic subsequently attacked technical, maintenance, and fighter jet infrastructure at two US air bases in Jordan. The Islamic Revolution Guards [IRG] reported its retaliation caused "heavy damage" to the hostile American site. The rapid exchange of attacks has added another layer of uncertainty to an already fragile energy market. "Looks like we are in another escalation phase. How long that lasts is impossible to determine. Could be days, could be weeks," IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said, Reuters reports. Sycamore said a further escalation could push WTI through resistance around $85.80-$85.90 a barrel, potentially opening the way toward last week’s $87.69 high and July’s $93.50 level. The immediate market reaction demonstrates how quickly military developments around the Gulf can translate into higher energy prices. IRG spokesperson Hossein Mohebi separately stated that Washington's escalating economic and military pressure is a “strategic and fatal mistake that would change the balance against its architects” and carry high costs on both economic and military fronts. Before the US- “Israeli” strikes that caused the war at the end of February, roughly one-fifth of global oil supplies passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Negotiations to end the war remain at an impasse, while mediators try to reopen the strait to regular shipping. Although some oil continues to move through the waterway, shipping activity has shown signs of mounting caution. Shipping data showed that only five visible commodity vessels per day passed through the strait over the weekend, compared with substantially higher levels before the escalation. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations [UKMTO] also reported that a tanker was struck by a projectile while traveling inbound through the strait on Saturday. The combination of reduced vessel traffic and attacks on shipping is increasing the risk premium attached to crude, even as actual oil flows have so far prevented a larger supply shock. Military escalation is being accompanied by additional US economic pressure on Iran. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Reuters on Sunday that Washington is likely to introduce new secondary sanctions against Iran weekly. The stated objective is to further restrict Iran’s access to the dollar-based financial system, adding economic pressure to Washington's war on the nation. The combination of sanctions and military action creates additional uncertainty for global energy markets, particularly if restrictions affect Iranian oil exports or contribute to further disruption around Hormuz.

Oil Up 3% as Hostilities Return to Hormuz (DTN) -- Crude futures surged 3% Monday morning after U.S. forces struck an Iranian island in the Strait of Hormuz, marking the first exchange of fire between Washington and Tehran in over a month following the end of a ceasefire. By 8:45 a.m. EDT, NYMEX WTI crude for October delivery rose $2.61, or 3.13%, to $86.01 bbl. With markets into their final session for August, the U.S. crude benchmark was up 1.6% on the month. ICE Brent for November delivery advanced $4.58, or 5%, to $90.70 gallon. The global crude benchmark gained 3% on the month. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD for October delivery climbed $0.1150, or 2.76%, to $4.3640 gallon. NYMEX RBOB for September retreated $0.0238, or 0.43%, to $3.4661 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index slid 0.148 points to 99.510 against a basket of currencies. Market volatility was amplified by thin trading volumes linked to a U.K. public holiday. Crude futures rallied after U.S. forces struck two missile launchers on Iran's Larak Island on Sunday, Aug. 30. Iran's Revolutionary Guards reported Monday they responded by attacking two U.S. air bases in Jordan, reviving fears of widespread supply disruptions. U.S. President Donald Trump added to the geopolitical noise Sunday with a social media post claiming Iran's Kharg Island energy hub was destroyed. Iranian officials quickly denied the Kharg Island claim and confirmed that crude oil operations were continuing. However, the renewed hostilities effectively stalled recent diplomatic efforts aimed at establishing a joint shipping lane through the strategic chokepoint. Shipping data over the weekend showed visible commodity vessels transiting the strait fell to just five a day. Supply risks escalated after the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency reported a tanker was struck by a projectile entering the strait Saturday. On the economic front, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned Sunday that Washington was likely to impose secondary sanctions on Iran on a weekly basis. Despite Monday's rally, Brent and WTI crude remain on track for modest August declines following last week's sharp drop. On another front, Trump announced plans at the weekend to use reserve oil secured under a deal with Venezuela to replenish the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, although experts said it would take years and tens of billions of dollars for such an initiative to materialize. U.S. emergency stockpiles have fallen to near their lowest level in 44 years following extensive drawdowns.

Oil Market Rallies on Renewed U.S.-Iran Military Strikes  -- The crude market rallied higher on Monday after the U.S. and Iran resumed their military strikes on Sunday. U.S. forces struck two launchers on Iran’s Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, the first known American strikes on the country since late July. In response, Iran attacked two U.S. air bases in Jordan. The renewed military strikes in the Middle East and concerns of further oil supply disruptions lifted oil prices. The oil market gapped higher on the opening on Sunday evening from $83.87 to $84.69. The market partially backfilled the gap as it erased some of its gains and posted a low of $84.11. However, the market bounced off that level and rallied to a high of $86.79 in light of U.S. President Donald Trump stating that Iran’s Kharg Island was being attacked. The market later gave up some of its gains as Iran denied any attack on the island and said oil operations were continuing and Iran’s President stated that Iran was still open to a negotiated resolution to the conflict. The October WTI contract settled up $2.36 at $85.76 and the October Brent contract settled up $2.39 at $90.49. The product markets ended the session in mixed territory, with the September heating oil market contract going off the board up 13.86 cents at $4.4953 and the September RB contract going off the board down 5.29 cents at $3.4370. Shipping data showed that the number of visible commodity vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz dropped to five per day over the weekend, as companies tread cautiously amid continued attacks on ships. The actual number of ships passing the strait could be higher as some vessels have switched off their automatic identification system to evade attacks. The European Union said that it would continue to work with the United States and other G7 and international partners to keep up pressure on Iran, as it issued a statement to coincide with this week’s G20 meeting. IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 27,000 bpd of capacity for the week ending September 4th, cutting available refining capacity by 3,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to increase to 230,000 bpd in the week ending September 11th. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency on Monday granted small refinery exemptions worth 1.76 billion renewable fuel credits for the 2025 compliance year and said it will propose reallocating the waived obligations to larger refiners in future years. The EPA also plans to shift the waived obligations to produce biofuels such as ethanol from corn or sugarcane and biodiesel from oils and fats onto larger refiners in future years. The EPA said it has granted full exemptions to 18 out of 34 refineries that had sought exemptions from their Renewable Fuel Standard obligations for the 2025 compliance year. The agency has delayed 2025 compliance until September 1st and is currently seeking another extension. The EPA statement said it granted 50% exemptions to 11 refineries, denied three petitions and determined two petitions to be ineligible. Motiva Enterprises and Exxon Mobil Corp are preparing their east Texas refineries for high winds and possible flooding as a developing tropical storm nears the U.S. Gulf coast. Sources said Motiva and Exxon have not reduced production at their Port Arthur and Beaumont, Texas refineries, respectively, while securing loose items and equipment that can be blown by high winds or drift in flood waters should those be produced by the developing storm expected to make landfall on Tuesday. Delek said its 73,000 bpd Big Spring, Texas refinery reported an equipment malfunction.

Oil Prices Rise as Middle East Supply Risks Return  - Oil prices rose on Tuesday as renewed fighting between the United States and Iran in the Middle East revived concerns over potential disruptions to supplies from a key global oil-producing region. Brent crude futures rose 56 cents, or 0.6%, to $91.05 a barrel by 0044 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 83 cents, or 1%, to $86.59 a barrel. In the previous session, Brent settled 2.7% higher after briefly reaching its highest level since Aug. 25. WTI rose 2.8% at settlement, reaching its highest level since Aug. 21. U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday threatened further attacks on Iran following the first direct exchange of strikes between the two countries in a month on Sunday, adding to tensions in a conflict that has recently evolved into an economic confrontation. “These developments bring the possibility of an Iranian response back into focus. That, in turn, raises the risk of damage to energy infrastructure around the Gulf and adds further uncertainty surrounding shipping through the Strait of Hormuz,” said Tim Waterer, a market analyst at KCM Trade. “Both risks are reflected in the stronger tone in crude prices.” Shipping data from Kpler showed that the number of visible commercial cargo vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz had fallen to five per day at the start of the week. Efforts by mediators, including Qatar and Oman, to reach an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have made no progress so far. The waterway carried around one-fifth of global oil supplies before the war began in late February. Iran closed the waterway after it was attacked by the United States and Israel on Feb. 28. In another sign of continued risks to shipping and oil supplies, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency said Tuesday that a tanker reported being struck by three projectiles while sailing outside the Strait of Hormuz. No injuries or environmental damage were reported. Trump announced on Friday an agreement with Venezuela to take control of the country’s oil reserves and later said the deal would help replenish the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which is approaching its lowest level in 44 years. Five people familiar with the arrangements said U.S. oil major Chevron, General Electric Vernova, India’s ONGC, Italy’s Eni and Colombia’s GeoPark are expected to sign final agreements in Venezuela following months of negotiations over energy projects in the OPEC member state. U.S. crude inventories in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell by about 3.1 million barrels last week to 286.6 million barrels. Analysts polled by Reuters in August expect oil prices to remain above $80 a barrel in 2026 as shipping disruptions continue.

Oil Begins September Higher on Renewed Hormuz Strikes - (DTN) -- Crude futures moved nearly 2% higher Tuesday morning as renewed military exchanges between Washington and Tehran stoked supply disruption fears. By 9:10 a.m. EDT, NYMEX WTI crude for October delivery rose $2.43, or 2.86%, to $88.19 bbl. ICE Brent for November delivery moved up $2.23, or 2.43%, to $92.72 bbl. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD for October delivery climbed $0.1460, or 3.36%, to $4.5566 gallon. RBOB for October advanced $0.0543, or 1.72%, to $3.1313 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index moved up 0.175 points to 99.560 against a basket of currencies. Crude futures' advance on the first trading day of September recouped most of their losses last week as escalated hostilities in the Middle East erased recent hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough. Physical risks to regional energy infrastructure escalated Monday after two supertankers carrying Saudi crude were hit by unknown projectiles within minutes of each other in the Strait of Hormuz. Ship tracking data showed visible commodity transits through the chokepoint held at roughly five vessels on Monday, well below the 10-day average of 14. None of the five vessels recorded transiting the waterway on Monday were liquid tankers, underscoring severe caution among commercial fleet operators. Market participants caution that the sudden military escalation deals a blow to short-term prospects for establishing a safe, managed transit corridor through the strait. President Donald Trump warned Monday, Aug. 31, of additional strikes against Iranian targets following the first direct military engagement between the two nations since late July. The escalation marks a sharp turn from last week, when the conflict briefly shifted toward economic sanctions and regional diplomatic talks. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated Tuesday that Tehran would immediately return to its obligations if Washington honored commitments made under June's interim agreement. However, ongoing mediation efforts led by Qatar and Oman to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remain inconclusive. Traders are expected to be focused later in the day on U.S. petroleum inventory data for the week ended Aug. 28 from the American Petroleum Institute, ahead of official statistics for the same period due on Wednesday, Sept. 2, from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Oil Market Surges as Strait of Hormuz Tanker Attacks Raise Supply Fears  -  The oil market continued on its upward trend on Tuesday amid renewed escalation in tensions between the U.S. and Iran. The market was well supported following strikes in the Persian Gulf, including attacks on two tankers carrying Saudi crude oil in the Strait of Hormuz. The crude market posted a low of $86.13 on the opening and never looked back as it continued to trade higher after U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday threatened further strikes against Iran. The oil market extended its gains to $4.79 as it rallied to a high of $90.55 ahead of the close. The market was supported further amid the news that the U.S. had struck Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targets in Iran on Tuesday afternoon. Also, President Trump dismissed the value of any deal with Iran. The October WTI contract settled up $4.46 at $90.22 and continued to rally in the post settlement period, posting a high of $90.97. The November Brent contract settled up $4.16 at $94.65. The product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 26.67 cents at $4.6773 and the RB market settling up 5.81 cents at $3.1351. U.S. Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, said the United States is likely to announce sanctions on a bank this week as part of its economic campaign against Iran. Preliminary ship-tracking data showed that the number of vessels sailing through the Strait of Hormuz was little changed on Monday compared with the weekend, remaining around five, below the 10-day average of around 14. Kpler data showed that four of the vessels entered the strait and one exited. According to Iranian media reports, a Saudi oil tanker was stopped on Tuesday while transiting through the southern corridor of the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, at the other chokepoint, the Bab-el Mandeb strait, the number of vessels transiting was at a three-day high of 27, with 14 entering and 13 exiting. Five of the 27 vessel transits were either Aframax- or Suezmax-sized crude tankers. None of the vessels that entered or exited were very large crude carriers or liquefied natural gas tankers. Two U.S. officials said U.S. oil company North American Blue Energy Partners will take over some oilfields previously controlled by several Chinese companies and a Russian firm. The takeover will be part of a sweeping oil production agreement that President Donald Trump announced with Venezuela. The projects were among 14 contracts newly granted to U.S.-backed North American Blue Energy Partners. NABEP is expected to control a total of 17 projects in Venezuela that it plans to develop and ultimately use to supply oil to the U.S. Fourteen of those projects will be newly granted by the Venezuelan government. Five of the 14 fields have been operated by Chinese companies under a model promoted by then-President Nicolas Maduro, while one was previously operated by a Russian company. Motiva, Exxon Mobil and TotalEnergies are maintaining planned production at their East Texas refineries as Tropical Storm Edouard nears landfall later on Tuesday close to those three U.S. Gulf Coast plants. Both the Exxon Beaumont refinery and the TotalEnergies Port Arthur refinery told contractors to stay home on Tuesday or sent them home Tuesday morning while keeping the full staff of employees on hand.

Oil prices settle up more than $4 a barrel on renewed US-Iran fighting - Oil prices jumped more than USD 4 a barrel on Tuesday, settling at a five-week high, as traders feared more supply disruptions from the Middle East due to renewed fighting between the US and Iran. Brent futures rose USD 4.16, or 4.6%, to settle at USD 94.65 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose USD 4.46, or 5.2%, to settle at USD 90.22. That was the highest close for Brent since July 24 and for WTI since July 23. The US launched new air strikes on Iranian targets, quashing hopes that an exchange of fire last weekend might not presage a wider renewal of hostilities. Oil prices had already risen after that first exchange of direct attacks since July and after reports of two tankers being hit leaving the Strait of Hormuz, the global oil supply waterway that Iran has effectively closed to shipping. Tehran remained defiant, warning that it would prevent oil being exported from the Gulf, despite a threat by US President Donald Trump to hit Iran "hard" in response to the renewed Iranian strikes, and a warning from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that Washington was about to impose new sanctions. "Today at 12 p.m. ET (1600 GMT), US forces began striking Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targets in Iran," US Central Command posted on X. "The strikes follow recent attempted attacks by the IRGC against commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and against American service members deployed to the region." The fresh hostilities "raised concerns about prolonged disruptions to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz," Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen said. Disruptions at refineries around the world, especially in the Middle East and in Russia, have caused diesel prices to spike. In the US, diesel futures jumped to a 52-month high on Tuesday after soaring 51% over the past 10 weeks, boosting the diesel crack spread, which measures refining profit margins, to a record high of around USD 107 a barrel, according to LSEG data. Russian air attacks killed 12 people and injured many more in Kyiv and the surrounding region early on Tuesday, authorities said, marking the sixth straight day of intense strikes on the Ukrainian capital. Russia was the world's third-biggest crude oil producer behind the US and Saudi Arabia in 2025, according to US energy data, and is a member of the OPEC+ group of producing countries. The oil market was watching for weekly storage reports from the American Petroleum Institute trade group on Tuesday and the US Energy Information Administration on Wednesday. Analysts estimated energy firms pulled 0.8 million barrels of crude from storage during the week ended August 28. If correct, that would be the first decline in five weeks and compares with an increase of 2.4 million barrels in the same week last year and an average decrease of 5.1 million barrels over the past five years (2021 to 2025).

Oil Prices Rise as US-Iran Strikes Resume - Oil prices rose 0.8% in early trading on Wednesday, extending the previous session’s sharp gains as concerns grew over supply disruptions after the United States and Iran exchanged strikes overnight, dashing hopes that tensions in the Middle East would ease quickly. Brent crude futures rose 75 cents, or 0.8%, to $95.40 a barrel by 03:45 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 44 cents, or 0.5%, to $90.66. Both contracts surged by more than $4 on Tuesday, marking Brent’s biggest gain since July 24 and WTI’s largest since July 23. The United States said it had launched a series of airstrikes against targets in Iran overnight, prompting an Iranian response in the most serious escalation in the conflict between the two countries in weeks. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said the U.S. attacks would further restrict movement through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway through which about one-fifth of the world’s consumed oil passed before the conflict. Iran has effectively closed the strait to commercial shipping. “Developments over the past few days have brought risks to regional oil supplies back into focus,” ING analysts said in a note to clients. “We saw oil continue to flow through the Strait of Hormuz despite the standoff between the U.S. and Iran, but the escalation clearly puts those flows at risk.” The latest exchange of strikes followed an escalation in fighting over the weekend, the first since July, as well as attacks on two oil tankers leaving the Strait of Hormuz on Monday. The incidents caused further disruption to oil supplies and forced traders to seek alternative crude cargoes. “The oil market is no longer pricing in just the risks of war, but increasingly the cost of an unresolved war,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, head of market forecasting at Phillip Nova. “Until there is clear evidence that negotiations can lead to a lasting resolution and that normal oil flows through the strait are returning, we expect the risk premium in crude prices to remain elevated,” she added. In the United States, the world’s largest oil producer, market sources citing American Petroleum Institute data said crude inventories fell by 2.6 million barrels in the week ended August 28. Distillate stocks, which include diesel and heating oil, declined by 265,000 barrels.

Oil Off Month-Highs on Hormuz, US Inventory Watch (DTN) -- Crude futures retreated Wednesday from one-month highs as traders awaited official U.S. petroleum inventory data for last week amid mixed signals for energy freight on the Strait of Hormuz from the U.S.-Iran war. By 9:19 a.m. EDT, NYMEX WTI crude for October delivery fell $0.48, or 0.48%, to $89.74 bbl. ICE Brent for November delivery moved down $0.18, or 0.17%, to $94.47 bbl. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD for October delivery eased $0.0060, or 0.07%, to $4.6713 gallon. RBOB for October advanced $0.0507, or 1.65%, to $3.1858 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index gained 0.063 points to 99.700 against a basket of currencies. Crude futures rose earlier to a one-month high of $92.29 on WTI and $97.04 on Brent, boosted by Tuesday's, Sept. 1, data from the American Petroleum Institute indicating that U.S. commercial crude oil stocks fell by 2.6 million bbl during the week ended Aug. 28. The U.S. Energy Information Administration will publish official inventory data for last week at 10:30 a.m. ET. The U.S. and Iran were back on a war footing on Wednesday after the most significant exchange of fire in weeks, with Washington threatening more devastating strikes. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said the U.S. attacks would further restrict traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway that carried about one-fifth of the global oil consumed before the conflict and which Iran has effectively closed to commercial shipping. Two oil tankers hit sea mines and were disabled while attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's Revolutionary Guards said on Wednesday, in a statement shared by state media. U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright said on Tuesday that 17 million bbl transited the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, saying it marked the highest level of crude oil to pass through the waterway since the Iran war had reduced flows. But market participants are wary the flows could drop dramatically if hostilities worsened on the strait.

WTI At 5-Week Highs As US-Iran Fighting Resumes; US Production At Record High As Cushing & SPR Hit 'Tank Bottoms' Oil prices were volatile but are trading around unchanged this morning, but still near the highest closing level in five weeks (WTI topped $92 overnight) as hostilities broke out again between the US and Iran, renewing the threat to energy exports from the Middle East. The US conducted a second day of strikes on the Islamic Republic overnight, with President Donald Trump threatening more attacks if Tehran responded. Within hours, Iran retaliated against Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait, countries that host American forces. “The market is now clearly pricing in a direct military confrontation, while the prospect of a negotiated solution has diminished,” said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at Global Risk Management in Copenhagen. “This is a worse combination for the energy market than the situation we faced just a few days ago and even in April. Today, inventories are even more depleted.” Prices pared some gains this morning on Venezuela news and more much-debated news from Secretary Wright about 'shadow' flows through the Strait. API:

• Crude -2.6mm
• Cushing
• Gasoline +348k
• Distillates -265k

DOE

• Crude -4.45mm (+60k exp)
• Cushing +80k
• Gasoline -1.17mm
• Distillates +796k

US Crude stocks declined for the first time in five weeks (more than expected and more than API reported) while Gasoline stocks continued to drawdown and Cushing saw a de minimus build. Distillates stocks did see a build (good news) for the first time in five weeks... Distillate supplies on the East Coast are now at record lows, while supplies on the West Coast are the lowest since May 2025. The vast majority of heating oil demand in the US occurs in the Northeast, so this is less than ideal with just a month to go before heating season starts. Another brutal week for gasoline imports, which fell to 370,000 barrels a day last week. That’s below levels for the same time in 2020. There’s just not a lot of relief for markets desperate for more supply. Amid all the clamor that Venezuela will be used to refill it, the SPR saw yet another drawdown last week (-3.12mm barrels) for the biggest overall crude draw since July... The SPR is now at its lowest level since 1982... US Crude production surged back to record highs... Refinery crude refinery runs soared to the highest in seven years, as oil processing in both the Gulf Coast and Midwest moved higher, with the Midwest at an all-time record high. Runs on the Gulf Coast are the highest for this time of the year. WTI holding around $90... The return to a hot war has once again thrust shipping through the vital Strait of Hormuz into jeopardy, as the two sides remain at loggerheads and diplomatic efforts yield few results.

Oil Market Gains Despite Oil Flows Through Strait of Hormuz  -- The crude market on Wednesday ended the session higher as traders weighed the risks of supply disruptions following overnight strikes by the U.S. and Iran against signs that crude supplies continue to flow through the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. military said it struck air defenses, radar systems, maritime assets, mine-laying capabilities and communications sites on Tuesday. Iran responded by striking what it said were U.S. assets in Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait and Iraq, and said its aim was now to drive U.S. forces from the network of military bases they have occupied across the Middle East. The crude market continued to trend higher in overnight trading as it rallied to a high of $92.29. However, the market erased its gains after U.S. Energy Secretary, Chris Wright, said that more than 17 million barrels of oil flowed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday. The market sold off more than $3 from its high to the a low of $88.97 on the U.S. Energy Secretary’s comments ahead of the release of the EIA’s weekly oil stocks report. The market later bounced off its low and retraced some of its losses in light of the EIA report showing a large draw of 4.5 million barrels in crude stocks in the week ending August 28th. The October WTI contract settled up 79 cents at $91.01 and the November Brent contract settled up 98 cents at $95.63. The product markets ended the session in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling up 49 points at $4.6822 and the RB market settling down 3.13 cents at $3.1038. U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright said that 17 million barrels of oil transited the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, saying it marked the highest level of crude oil to pass through the waterway since the Iran war had reduced flows. Preliminary shipping data showed that four commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, down from ten a day earlier and below the 10-day average of around 13 on Wednesday. Initial data from shiptracker Kpler showed that the four vessels that transited were one very large crude carrier, one Panamax tanker, one Kamsarmax carrier and one intermediate tanker. Meanwhile, 18 commodity vessels transited through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on Tuesday, with seven vessels entering and 11 exiting. This compares with an average of around 24 ships going through Bab el-Mandeb over the past 10 days. Among the vessels travelling through the strait were two Aframax tankers and one Suezmax tanker. IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 35,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending September 4th, decreasing available refining capacity by 11,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to increase to 238,000 bpd in the week ending September 11th. Valero Energy Corp’s 385,000 bpd Port Arthur, Texas, refinery was hit by a partial power outage on Tuesday night following the passage of Tropical Storm Edouard. The refinery’s AVU-147 crude distillation unit was shut by the power outage on the south side of the plant and the AVU-146 crude distillation unit was operating at the minimum crude processing level. According to a Texas Commission on Environmental Quality filing, Motiva’s 656,400 bpd Port Arthur, Texas refinery experienced an unexpected interruption and shutdown of several critical pieces of equipment on September 1st, caused by severe weather during Tropical Storm Edouard. The filing added that the facility took immediate action to stabilize affected process units and minimize flaring and emissions to the extent practicable. LyondellBasell said a minor fire occurred within the operating area at its La Porte, Texas complex. The company later issued an all-clear for the incident in a separate alert.

Oil Prices Edge Lower Amid US-Iran Uncertainty- Oil prices edged lower on Thursday as investors assessed uncertainty surrounding renewed military strikes between the United States and Iran and their potential impact on Middle East supplies. Brent crude futures fell 43 cents, or 0.45%, to $95.20 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures declined 24 cents, or 0.26%, to $90.77 a barrel. The latest attacks marked the largest exchange of fire between the United States and Iran since July, as the war entered its seventh month. Brent and U.S. crude prices fluctuated between gains of as much as $2 a barrel and losses of up to $1 a barrel during the previous trading session. Both benchmarks reached their highest levels since July 24. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that the renewed U.S. campaign against Iran would not continue for “too long” and that U.S. forces had targeted Iranian radar and missile systems. “We destroyed all the new equipment they tried to build near the Strait of Hormuz, some of it defensive and some offensive,” Trump said. “It was a very violent attack last night, and we are ready to launch another attack whenever we want.” Preliminary shipping data from Kpler on Wednesday showed that four commodity-carrying vessels had passed through the Strait of Hormuz, well below the 10-day average of around 13 vessels. Iran also added more vessels to a list of ships it considers non-compliant with its directives, leaving them potentially subject to fines, seizure or detention if they attempt to transit the strait. The United States said Tuesday that 17 million barrels of oil had passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, describing it as the largest volume of crude to transit the waterway since the start of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.

Oil prices hit six-week high amid renewed US aggression against Iran  -- Oil prices rose to near a six-week high on Thursday after renewed US attacks on Iran, along with fresh Israeli occupation’s threats against Tehran, heightened concerns over potential disruptions to Middle East supplies. Brent crude futures rose $1.76, or 1.8%, to $97.39 a barrel by 10:25 GMT, erasing earlier losses, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures gained $1.91, or 2.1%, to $92.92, according to Reuters. Both contracts were heading for a fourth consecutive session of gains after reaching their highest levels in six weeks earlier in the session. Preliminary shipping data released earlier in the day showed that six cargo vessels carrying commodities passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, down from 11 the previous day and below the 10-day average of around 13 vessels. Iran has also added more vessels to its list of ships deemed non-compliant with its directives, exposing them to fines, seizure or detention if they attempt to sail through the strait.

Oil Eases After 6-Week Highs Amid Hormuz Watch   (DTN) -- Crude futures gave back most of the gains that elevated them to six-week highs Thursday as the market balanced concerns over the impact of heightened fighting in the Middle East with U.S. President Donald Trump's hints that current hostilities may wind down again. NYMEX WTI crude for October delivery settled up $0.29, or 0.32%, at $91.30 bbl, after racing to a six-week high of $93.14 bbl earlier. ICE Brent crude for November settled down $0.11, or 0.1%, at $95.52 bbl. It rose to as high as $97.62 bbl during the session, a peak since mid-July. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD for October delivery eased $0.0886, or 1.89%, to finish at $4.5936 gallon. RBOB for October advanced $0.0311, or 1.00%, to end the session at $3.1349 gallon. By 2:30 p.m. EDT, the U.S. Dollar Index slid 0.672 points to 98.880 against a basket of currencies. The rally earlier in the day came after civilian casualties and infrastructure damage were reported across Iranian coastal regions near the Strait of Hormuz following an overnight U.S. bombardment. Iran said those killed and wounded included people at a wedding. Physical energy transits through the Hormuz remain volatile amid the six-month conflict. Preliminary vessel-tracking data showed four to six oil-laden tankers navigated the chokepoint between Tuesday and Wednesday, well below the 10-day average of 13 daily transits -- despite U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright noting a transient surge of 17 million bbl on Monday. Trump hinted on Wednesday that the current hostilities might not drag on. "I don't think too long," he told reporters when asked to give a timeframe for the escalation. Tehran expanded its maritime enforcement list Thursday, warning that non-compliant commercial vessels attempting passage through the waterway face fines or cargo confiscation. Outside the Hormuz chokepoint, Iraqi crude exports rose to 2.34 million bpd in August from 1.35 million bpd in July on discounted pricing, with September volumes expected to expand further as Iranian authorities permit select Iraqi tanker transits. Fundamental support also stemmed from domestic inventory data showing U.S. commercial crude stocks fell by 4.5 million bbl last week, marking the first draw in five weeks. Downstream stocks offered a mixed picture, with gasoline inventories falling by 1.2 million bbl while distillate stocks rose by 800,000 bbl. Traders are also monitoring OPEC+, which is expected to hold output policy unchanged at its Sunday meeting after completing the scheduled unwinding of a 1.65 million bpd layer of voluntary production cuts.

Oil Market Hits Six-Week High as Israel Threatens Iranian Energy Sites - The oil market on Thursday continued on its upward trend reaching a six-week high following further U.S. strikes on Iran and renewed Israeli threats against Iran. Israel’s Defense Minister, Israel Katz, said Israel would destroy Iran’s military and civilian infrastructure, including energy facilities, if Iran launched attacks against it. The crude market erased some of its previous gains in overnight trading, posting a low of $89.57. However, the market bounced off that level and extended its gains on the Israeli threats against Iran. Also, oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz were lower on Wednesday, with only six vessels transiting the waterway, down from 11 on Tuesday. The oil market retraced nearly 62% of its move from a high of $109.47 to a low of $67.04 as it posted a high of $93.14 early in the morning. The market later erased some of its gains during the remainder of the session, with the October WTI contract settling up 90 cents at $91.30 and the November Brent contract settling down 11 cents at $95.52. The product markets ended the session in mixed territory once again, with the heating oil market settling down 8.86 cents at $4.5936 and the RB market settling up 3.11 cents at $3.1349. U.S. Vice President JD Vance said that the U.S. does not plan to hold talks with Iran unless Tehran stops attacking commercials shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Preliminary shipping data showed that six commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, down from 11 a day earlier and well below the 10-day average of around 13. Kpler data showed that in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, 31 commodity vessels crossed that waterway on Wednesday, the highest number since August 24th and above the 10-day average of 25 vessels. On Tuesday, 17 vessels transited the waterway. Citi said it raised its mark-to-market Brent average forecast for the third quarter of 2026 to $86/barrel from a previous estimate of $80/barrel, as the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has taken longer than its prior assumption. Citi said it is maintaining its fourth quarter 2026 and 2027 Brent average forecasts at $70/barrel and $65/barrel, respectively. According to GasBuddy data, average U.S. diesel prices reached $5.820/gallon on Thursday, a new record, as a global supply crunch intensifies following renewed hostilities between the United States and Iran and disruptions caused by Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries. This surpassed the previous high of $5.819/gallon recorded on June 17, 2022, in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Bloomberg reported that U.S. retail diesel prices reached its highest level since mid-2022, surpassing a peak seen during the early stages of the Iran war. Goldman Sachs expects Venezuela’s crude production to increase, but does not see output returning to pre-2018 levels of more than 2 million bpd over the next few years. It said that key bottlenecks, including degraded infrastructure and an unreliable power grid, will be costly and time-consuming to fix. Several international energy firms, including Eni, GE Vernova and Chevron committed on Wednesday to project expansions to increase oil output in Venezuela, in a signing ceremony in Caracas overseen by interim President Delcy Rodriguez and U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright.

Oil Prices Set for Weekly Gains Amid Hormuz Security Risks -   Oil prices are on track to end the week higher on Friday as renewed military tensions between the US and Iran and persistent security risks in the Strait of Hormuz revived concerns about potential disruptions to global energy supplies. International benchmark Brent crude futures for November delivery traded at $94.77 per barrel at 3:29 p.m. local time (1229 GMT) on Friday, up 7.6% from last Friday’s close of $88.10, The Caspian Post reports, citing Anadolu Agency. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for October delivery traded at $90.34 per barrel, marking an 8.3% increase from $87.06 a week earlier. Oil prices have been primarily supported by a renewed escalation in hostilities between Washington and Tehran, which has increased uncertainty over the security of energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil transit routes. Tensions intensified over the weekend after US forces struck targets on Iran’s Larak Island near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks against sites used by US forces across the region. The escalation continued during the week, with the US targeting areas around the Strait of Hormuz and southern Iran, while Tehran reported strikes on several locations, including Qeshm Island, Bandar Abbas, Asaluyeh, Chabahar and Konarak. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said the attacks had “further tightened the lock on the Strait of Hormuz,” reinforcing market concerns that continued hostilities could prolong disruptions to energy flows from the Gulf. Security risks to commercial shipping also remained elevated. The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported Tuesday that a tanker had been struck by three unknown projectiles while exiting the Strait of Hormuz off Oman. Iran also said during the week that it had laid additional naval mines in the strait and reported that oil tankers attempting to pass through what Tehran described as unauthorized routes had struck mines. The developments raised concerns that even if oil shipments continue through the waterway, heightened security risks could disrupt tanker movements, increase insurance and freight costs, and discourage some operators from using the route. Before the conflict, around 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and petroleum products moved through the Strait of Hormuz, accounting for a significant share of global seaborne oil trade. The persistent risk of disruption to these flows added a geopolitical risk premium to crude prices, pushing Brent above $95 per barrel during the week. However, reports of a sharp recovery in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and signals from Washington that it does not seek a prolonged conflict with Iran limited further price gains.

Oil Dips Pre-Holiday but Caps 8% Weekly Gain - Oil prices retreated Friday but remained on track for sharp weekly gains ahead of the Labor Day holiday as renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities sustained fears of prolonged supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. By 8:50 a.m. EDT, NYMEX WTI crude for October delivery fell $1.27, or 1.39%, to $90.03 bbl, though heading for an 8% weekly advance before Monday's market holiday. ICE Brent for November dipped by $1.08, or 1.13%, to $94.44 bbl, maintaining a 7% weekly gain. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD for October delivery eased $0.1081, or 2.35%, to $4.4855 gallon, up 5% on the week. RBOB for October retreated $0.0441, or 1.39%, to $3.0908 gallon, pacing toward a 2% weekly rise. The U.S. Dollar Index gained 0.370 points to 99.250 against a basket of currencies, posing additional headwinds for dollar-denominated commodities. Weekly gains reflect heightening geopolitical risks following U.S. airstrikes against Iranian targets and Tehran's retaliatory drone and missile counterfire against U.S. positions across the Gulf region. U.S. Vice President JD Vance stated Thursday that Washington will not engage in diplomatic talks with Tehran until Iran halts attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Physical energy flows through the chokepoint and remains severely constrained. Preliminary vessel-tracking data showed daily commodity tanker transits falling to single digits, well below the 10-day average of 13 transits. Prices also find underlying fundamental support from tightening domestic inventories. U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed commercial crude stocks fell 4.5 million bbl last week, marking the first inventory draw in five weeks. Traders are, meanwhile, turning their attention to Sunday's OPEC+ meeting, where the producer group is expected to leave October output policy unchanged after completing the scheduled unwinding of voluntary production cuts. In U.S. economic data, non-farm payrolls surged by 162,000 in August, far exceeding market expectations of a 56,000 gain. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday, Sept. 4, that the national unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%.

Oil ends week higher on renewed US-Iran strikes, diesel hits record (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Friday, ending the week substantially higher after the United States and Iran resumed ​military exchanges in the seventh month of their conflict, while retail U.S. diesel prices hit a record high. Brent crude futures settled at $92.68 a ‌barrel, up 76 cents, or 0.8%. West Texas Intermediate crude futures finished at $91.48 a barrel, up 18 cents, or 0.20%. For the week, Brent crude rose 7.6% while U.S. crude gained nearly 10% as supply routes in the Middle East remain impaired due to the war. The rally in oil prices combined with a much steeper increase in fuel prices has ​pushed inflation and government borrowing costs higher around the world and intensified fears that global economic growth might pull back without ​some relief. "All sectors of the economy are affected by diesel. This is one of the reasons why the government ⁠bond yields in the United States are so high, it's the expectation that inflation will continue to go up," said Claudio Galimberti, chief economist ​at Rystad Energy. Average U.S. diesel prices hit record highs as renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries increased supply disruptions. A gallon of diesel ​now costs $5.85 on average in the U.S., according to AAA data. The price of diesel could rise even further due to the sharp drawdown in inventories and as agricultural states in various parts of the country head into harvesting and planting seasons. Diesel is a primary fuel for ag equipment. Its equivalent futures contract, heating oil, has also ​surged as winter approaches. Citi raised its average Brent crude price forecast for the third quarter to $86 a barrel from $80, saying the reopening of the ​Strait of Hormuz was taking longer than previously expected. ANZ analysts raised their short-term Brent crude forecast to $95 a barrel, with upside risk if the Middle East conflict ‌intensifies. The U.S. economy ⁠added 162,000 jobs in August, allaying fears of weakness in the labor market, but bolstering the case for the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise rates later in September. "The strong employment figures points to an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve and that was weighing on WTI," The U.S. government has said Middle Eastern oil flows have returned to near normal levels in recent weeks, but ​analysts and tanker trackers indicate that ​flows remain seriously disrupted. Four commodity vessels transited ⁠the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, well below the 10-day average tally of about 15, preliminary shipping data showed. "Oil seems to be in a phase where the conflict’s gridlock and recurring hostilities are regularly awakening a risk ​premium embedded in prices," . "So far, ​there is no ⁠indication that this week’s escalation materially impacted exports out of the Middle East and tightened the oil market," Rucker said. "Oil’s current rally seems mostly mood and fear driven." U.S. attacks this week that killed and wounded dozens, including Iranian civilians, were the fiercest clashes between the two countries since July. The U.S. campaign to ⁠throttle Iran's economy by ​blockading its oil exports and stopping sanctions evasion is growing increasingly difficult to withstand, ​three senior Iranian sources said. Iraq increased its August oil exports to about 2.34 million barrels per day from about 1.35 million bpd in July, two Iraqi energy officials said on Wednesday.

Two tankers hit Hormuz naval mines, Iran says amid regional strikes  --Two oil tankers struck naval mines while attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said Wednesday, after the Iranian military made retaliatory strikes on U.S. bases in the Middle East.In a statement shared by state media, the influential hard-line military group said the vessels had been disabled and forced to disembark their crew after ignoring warnings on taking an “illegal route” through the strait.President Donald Trump said he was “not trying to force Iran to the bargaining table,” as U.S. forces completed a fresh round of attacks against the Middle Eastern country on Tuesday stateside.  U.S. Central Command disputed Iran’s claim of striking the two oil tankers, saying in a social media post on Wednesday that “No ships have hit mines in the Strait of Hormuz. This is yet another IRGC attempt to intimidate regional commercial shipping through disinformation.”The latest exchange of military strikes came as the Financial Times published an investigative report claiming Russia was secretly helping Iran to develop advanced supersonic cruise missiles capable of threatening U.S. aircraft carriers and other warships in the region.In a Truth Social post, Trump claimed the U.S. has “almost total control” over the Strait of Hormuz, while adding that Tehran’s economy was collapsing.He said Iran was just “playing out the inevitable” and asked, “When are the Iranian people going to rise up and fight?”In an earlier post on X, U.S. Central Command said that it struck air defense and communications sites, and radar systems in Iran, in retaliation against the “recent attempted attacks” by the country against commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and against American service members.Tehran responded to American strikes, targeting U.S. ally Jordan. The country’s armed forces said it was targeted by a missile attack that originated from Iranian territory.A spokesperson for Jordan’s armed forces said on X that 10 of 13 missiles were intercepted by the country’s air defense systems, with the three fell in remote areas. No injuries or deaths were reported.Bahrain’s armed forces said on Instagram on Wednesday that they had intercepted and destroyed “treacherous Iranian air strikes today,” following an earlier announcement by Bahrain’s Interior Ministry of “an alert of potential threat.”U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview with Fox Business on Tuesday that the Strait of Hormuz will become a “worthless piece of water” in two years, contending that oil will instead flow across land pipelines and bypass the strait.Strikes on Sunday were the first time that the U.S. and Iran traded attacks in about a month, and after the Trump administration said it was launching an “economic D-Day” on Tehran’s backers.

Two Oil Supertankers Hit by Projectiles in Hormuz, Marisks Says  - Two oil supertankers were struck by unknown projectiles in quick succession while transiting the Persian Gulf's Strait of Hormuz chokepoint, maritime security consultant Marisks said. The very large crude carrier Sidr, run by Saudi Arabia's Bahri shipping company, was hit while sailing northeast of Khasab, Oman, the consultant said. The Senegal Prosperity, operated by Sinokor, was struck by three projectiles while traveling east of the same country, it said. Both were exiting the Persian Gulf, according to Marisks. Bahri and Sinokor didn't immediately respond to requests for comment. Earlier, the UK Maritime Trade Operations said that one tanker reported being struck by three unknown projectiles while completing an outbound transit of the Strait of Hormuz. It didn't identify the vessel.

Saudi shipping company Bahri says two sailors killed in incident in Hormuz (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia's national shipping company, Bahri, said on ​Wednesday that two Filipino seafarers were killed ‌in a security incident involving its vessel "SIDR" as it transited through the Strait of Hormuz on August ​31. The company did not disclose further ​details. On August 31, maritime security agency ⁠UKMTO said a tanker had reported being ​struck by three unknown projectiles while outbound ​through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has threatened tankers attempting to transit the narrow waterway without authorisation. "Bahri ​remains in continuous contact with the vessel ​and is coordinating closely with the relevant authorities and ‌maritime ⁠industry stakeholders, while continuing to closely monitor developments," the company said in its statements. A month earlier another Bahri vessel was ​hit near ​the strait. ⁠The Wedyan supertanker was sailing close to Oman's coast at ​the time. Two other Bahri vessels, AMZAN ​and ⁠MASA, were attacked in the Red Sea after the Iran-backed Yemen's Houthis declared a ⁠naval ​blockade against Saudi Arabia.

Ansar Allah Launches Major Attacks Targeting Saudi-Backed Forces in Yemen -   Yemen’s Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthis, launched significant strikes on Thursday targeting Saudi-backed forces inside Yemen.Yahya Saree, spokesman for the Ansar Allah-led Yemeni Armed Forces, said that drone attacks targeted “Saudi enemy gatherings and vehicles on several fronts” but didn’t specify exactly where the operations were carried out.Saudi media reported that Houthi ballistic missiles targeted Taiz and Hodeidah, provinces that are both partially controlled by Ansar Allah and the Saudi-backed government, which is based in Aden, though its leadership has been based in Riyadh since they were first driven out of the Yemeni capital Sanaa in 2014.The footage released by Saree shows bombs being dropped from the sky onto militant positions, and Yemeni media said the attacks were carried out by Rujum drones, which drop small, grenade-like munitions. Saudi media reported there were significant casualties on both sides during fighting on Thursday and that the Ansar Allah attacks also hit civilian infrastructure, but no death toll was provided.The war in Yemen reignited following Saudi airstrikes that targeted the Sanaa International Airport in July, which prompted Ansar Allah to impose a blockade on Saudi shipping, calling the policy a “blockade for a blockade.”

Iran Urges Japan to Explain F-16 Operations From Misawa Base - Caspianpost.com  Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has called on Japanese citizens to demand explanations from their government over the reported use of F-16 fighter jets from the US Misawa Air Base in operations in the Middle East.In an interview with Kyodo, Araghchi said Japanese citizens who value peace should seek accountability from Tokyo over what he described as US actions.“Peace-loving Japanese people should demand responsible explanations from the Japanese government regarding the crimes of the US,” the Iranian diplomat said.Araghchi said that the attack on Iran demonstrated that US military bases in Japan are not used solely for the country’s defense but also support what he described as Washington’s aggressive policies.He specifically pointed to the Misawa Air Base as an example, raising questions about Japan’s role and the use of US military facilities on its territory in operations beyond the region.

Israel's Ben Gvir Posts AI Video Depicting Starving Palestinian Prisoners -   -Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir on Sunday posted an AI-generated video depicting the starvation of Palestinian prisoners as he continues to boast of his efforts to impose harsher conditions on Palestinians held in Israeli jails.The post, which Ben Gvir later deleted, showed what appeared to be overweight Palestinian detainees being brought into a prison camp on a conveyor belt operated by Ben Gvir and coming out the other side much thinner and distressed. “We promised – we delivered,” the post read.The Israeli minister has previously said that he would work to “ensure that the ‘terrorists’ receive the minimum of the minimum (in food),” and Palestinians released from Israeli jails in recent years have shown signs of severe malnourishment and torture. Also on Sunday, Ben Gvir posted real footage showing himself berating female Palestinian prisoners who were complaining of the harsh conditions. “This is our third day without showering. We are not receiving medical treatment, and our clothes are not clean,” one of the women said.Ben Gvir replied, “The good conditions in the prisons are over. This is the current situation, and I am directly responsible for everything. I am pleased with these conditions.”The Committee Against Torture, a body that monitors the implementation of the UN Convention Against Torture, described the video as “political exploitation of a helpless population for direct electoral gain” and said it caused “grave harm” to the dignity and privacy of the prisoners, who are held in “conditions of abuse and torture.”As Israel’s October elections are approaching, Ben Gvir has been ramping up his rhetoric, recently saying that Israel should be killing 30 to 40 Palestinians in Gaza per day.

Israeli Defense Minister Says Ethnic Cleansing Is the Only 'Real Solution' for Gaza -   Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Wednesday that the only “real solution” for Gaza was the ethnic cleansing of the Palestinian population, which he calls “migration,” and vowed that Israel will achieve this goal.“There is no real solution for Gaza in the end without migration,” Katz told reporters at a conference hosted by the Israeli news site Ynet, according to Middle East Eye.  “The moment will come. When will it come? When it becomes clear that Hamas is not meeting its commitment. Then we will get a green light to move forward militarily, territorially, and in other areas, and this thing will gain momentum,” Katz added.While accusing Hamas of “not meeting its commitments,” Israel has constantly violated the October 2025 Gaza ceasefire deal and has rejected a US proposal for a deal under which Hamas would give up its weapons. Katz has previously said that even if Hamas does disarm, Israel wouldn’t withdraw from Gaza and would begin establishing “Nahal outposts,” a type of Jewish settlement in Israeli-occupied territory that are first populated by Israeli soldiers with the goal of transitioning them to permanent civilian communities.In his comments on Wednesday, Katz acknowledged Israel’s main obstacle to carrying out the ethnic cleansing of Gaza was the lack of countries willing to facilitate it and take in Palestinians from Gaza, though he suggested it could happen with US support. “We are fully prepared to move them out if it becomes possible – by sea, by air, by every way possible. Egypt is not willing, so it won’t be through them,” he said.“What’s delaying it is that the accepting countries want US support. Every country that is willing wants American backing. Currently, President Trump didn’t cancel this; he froze it. All the Arab countries came to him due to their pressure on this matter,” Katz added.  Katz has been openly advocating for the ethnic cleansing of Gaza since early 2025, around the same time President Trump began saying that Palestinians should leave Gaza, though it’s been clear from the start of Israel’s genocidal war that the Israeli government’s ultimate goal.

Israel's Ben Gvir Unveils Plan To Remove All Palestinians From Gaza - Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir on Thursday unveiled a plan for the ethnic cleansing of Gaza’s Palestinian population, which he and other Israeli ministers refer to as “voluntary migration,” a day after Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said the removal of Palestinians was the only “real solution” for Gaza.  Ben Gvir dubbed his plan “Disengagement 710” and said that it would involve removing 250,000 Palestinians from Gaza in the first year, 1.11 million within three years, and finally, 1.86 million over seven years. He said that his Jewish Power party would demand the establishment of an “emigration ministry” in the next Israeli government following the upcoming October elections. In remarks on the plan, Ben Gvir said that he had been considered “delusional” for seeking the ethnic cleansing of Gaza until President Trump called for Palestinians to leave the territory early last year. “At first, I was treated as a delusional extremist,” Ben Gvir said, according to The Times of Israel. “Then, one day, everything changed: President Trump publicly declared that encouraging emigration was a solution to the Gaza issue. Suddenly, Ben Gvir’s plan became legitimate. Suddenly, everyone became Ben Gvir.” Katz said a day earlier that Trump had not “canceled” the plan to remove Palestinians from Gaza but just “froze” it and that countries were willing to take in Gaza’s population if they had US support. “What’s delaying it is that the accepting countries want US support. Every country that is willing wants American backing. Currently, President Trump didn’t cancel this; he froze it. All the Arab countries came to him due to their pressure on this matter,” he said. Ben Gvir on Thursday also referenced Rehavam Ze’evi, nicknamed “Gandhi, an Israeli lawmaker who was assassinated in 2001 and was known for wanting to cleanse both Gaza and the West Bank of their entire Palestinian population. “What a shame they didn’t listen to Gandhi,” he said. “It’s time to admit it: Gandhi was right!”

Zelensky Warns 'Safe Days' Are Over for Civilian Aircraft in Russian Airspace as He Vows To Escalate Drone Attacks - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky vowed on Tuesday that Ukraine would escalate its drone attacks inside Russia and warned that “safe days” are over for civilian aircraft in Russian airspace.“Today, we want to warn every airline that uses Russian airspace, every insurer, and everyone who still uses Russia’s key airports: Russian airspace is becoming completely unsafe,” Zelensky said in a post on X that cited his nightly address. While the statement reads as an implicit threat against civilian aircraft, Zelensky insisted that wasn’t what he was doing. “Ukraine does not threaten civilian aviation as such – not a single civilian aircraft. There will simply be drones in Russia’s skies on a scale that has to be taken into account,” he said. ‘We in Ukraine do not want innocent lives to be lost. That is why we are warning our partners: the safe days in Russia’s skies are over. It is important that this is heard by the ambassadors of countries represented here in Ukraine, as well as by ambassadors working in Moscow,” Zelensky added.The Ukrainian leader also said in his address that at the request of the US, he paused attacks on Moscow and St. Petersburg from August 25 to August 27, which coincided with CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s visit to Moscow, and that he could take similar steps in the future but that for now, the “skies over Russia are for drones – not for civilian aviation.”Ukraine’s long-range drone attacks in Russia, which are supported by US intelligence, have already dramatically escalated this year, resulting in increasing civilian casualties inside Russia. Moscow has responded by escalating its missile and drone strikes across Ukraine, leading to more Ukrainian civilian casualties.

Moscow Says It Won't Let Ukraine Shut Down Russian Airspace After Zelensky's Threat - Russian officials vowed on Wednesday that Ukraine won’t be able to shut down Russian airspace after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky threatened a major escalation of drone attacks on Russian territory and said Russia’s skies would no longer be safe for civilian aircraft. Ukraine’s drones have disrupted flights in the cities in Russia being targeted for years now, but Zelensky is now vowing that his planned escalation will completely shut down Russian airspace.“We are constantly improving flight safety and airport security requirements, and we have solutions ​for all of this,” Russian Transportation Minister Andrei Nikitin said on Wednesday, according to Reuters. “We are working in close contact with the Ministry of Defense and the Russian National Guard. And I believe that we will not allow ​any significant disruption to civil aviation,” Nikitin added.Ukrainian officials have said that they have notified the International Civil Aviation Organization that Russia’s airspace would not be safe, but the Russian civil aviation authority Rosaviatsia said that the Ukrainian notifications “have no legal force and violate the Convention on International Civil Aviation.” Russian President Vladimir Putin was asked about Zelensky’s threat and said it amounted to “state terrorism,” and added that “terrorists” should not be negotiated with.“Look, I haven’t heard such statements, but if this was voiced, it is simply a bid for state terrorism. And I would like to note that they have been asking us to resume negotiations, seeking face-to-face meetings. Terrorists are not negotiated with,” Putin said on Tuesday night at a Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Kyrgyzstan, according to Russia’s TASS news agency. In the meantime, Russian missile and drone attacks continued to pound Ukraine, where at least two civilians were killed in the city of Dnipro on Wednesday. Russian media also reported that Ukrainian attacks in the Russian-controlled Donetsk Oblast killed four civilians.

Russian Strike on Ukrainian Ammo Depot Kills at Least 38 - News From Antiwar.com -A Friday night Russian strike on a warehouse storing ammunition west of Kyiv has killed at least 38 people, according to Ukrainian officials, as Moscow continues its heavy bombardments across Ukraine, which it frames as a response to Ukraine’s escalated drone attacks on Russian territory.The Associated Press reported that the ammunition stored at the warehouse targeted by Russian forces sparked massive explosions and fires that spread through dozens of nearby homes and other buildings in the village of Myla. At least 52 other people were injured in the carnage. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that the massive casualties were the result of “terrible negligence on the part of those who stored explosives right next to people” and said there would be an investigation into why ammunition was stored at the warehouse.“The first strike was on an ammunition storage site that definitely shouldn’t have been there – a Defense Forces storage facility. Shells, mines, other ammunition, and drones detonated. The scale is significant,” Zelensky said in his nightly address on Saturday. “We have already spoken with the Prosecutor General, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Security Service of Ukraine, and the Commander-in-Chief – they have everything necessary for the investigation,” the Ukrainian president added.The strike has been reported as the deadliest Russian attack in Ukraine this year, though the casualties among Ukrainian soldiers along the frontline are never disclosed, and heavy fighting on the front continues. While Ukraine has dramatically ramped up its drone attacks inside Russia this year, Russian forces still have the momentum on the battlefield and continue to slowly make gains.

Germany blames Russia for drone attack on airport, announces countermeasures   - Germany blames Russia for drone attack on airport, announces countermeasures After weeks of reticence, German officials on Tuesday blamed Russia for an attempted drone attack last month at Leipzig/Halle Airport and announced they would summon Moscow’s ambassador to Berlin, close a Russian consulate and take other measures in response. A drone stacked with military-grade explosives was found Aug. 4 next to a Ukrainian cargo plane at the airport, a hub that’s also used by European and NATO military aircraft. Security camera footage appeared to show the weapon striking the plane’s wing before falling to the ground without exploding. Later that day, a second drone collided with a cargo plane in flight. Ten days later, German media has reported, a third drone was found with traces of military-grade explosives in a field near the airport. Germany has concluded the attack was plotted by professionals working for the Russian state, Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt told reporters in Berlin. “The means used — such as the drone configuration, components, explosives and detonation systems — are known to us from other hybrid operations by Russia and its war against Ukraine,” Dobrindt said. The device indicated “a high degree of technical expertise,” he said, but its deployment appeared to have been left to “low-level agents.” “Things didn’t go according to plan, thank God,” he said. Russia denied the allegation. President Vladimir Putin said German leaders were trying to distract voters from what he described as their failing policies ahead of regional elections this weekend. “Chancellor [Friedrich] Merz is facing dire times,” Putin told. “He doesn’t enjoy the trust of his people because he does not protect national interests,” he told reporters in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. The allegation, he said, was another “crude mistake” against the interests of the German people. “When such serious accusations are made, they must be backed by something,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned told reporters. “Unless I am mistaken, no evidence has been presented. It is obvious that Germany is proceeding down a path of further escalation.” German leaders have said they do not intend to invoke Article 4, through which member states that consider themselves under threat may launch formal consultations within the alliance. German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul described the attempted attack as one in “a long chain” of “aggressive actions in Europe” by Russia. Germany, which has helped lead European opposition to Russia’s war on Ukraine, “is no exception,” he said.