week ending May 30

Jerome Powell Stepped Down as Federal Reserve Chairman With a 7-Word Warning That Speaks Volumes -Jerome Powell ended his two-term tenure as Federal Reserve chairman this month. During his time in charge of the central bank, he was tasked with battling the highest inflation rates the country had seen in over 40 years. Many believe inflation wouldn’t have reached such a high level if he had pushed the Fed to act more quickly. Now inflation is rearing its ugly head once again. The war in Iran has pushed oil and other commodity prices higher as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. In his last press conference as chairman, Powell left investors with a seven-word warning about how this bout of inflation could impact the broader market, and investors should be paying attention. After the FOMC kept rates steady once again at the Fed’s April meeting, journalists asked Powell how the current inflation caused by spiking oil prices could impact future Fed rate decisions. Inflation has climbed considerably since the start of the war in Iran. March saw the CPI climb 3.3% year over year, and that climbed to 3.8% in April. The Fed’s current forecast for May expects a 4.2% increase. Energy prices are the biggest driver, with gas prices up 28.4% year over year and fuel oil prices up 54% in the April CPI report. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas published a study in April that found that the longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the higher oil prices will climb and the slower they’ll fall once reopened, with severe knock-on effects for consumer inflation. In Powell’s response at the press conference, he noted there’s more to inflation than just gas prices. But that shouldn’t put investors at ease. Remember, when gas prices go up, that’s disposable income coming out of people’s pockets, so they’re going to spend less on other things. So, there will be a hit to GDP. Those last seven words, “there will be a hit to GDP,” are not the words typically associated with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite trading near all-time highs. Powell’s comments were meant to imply that lower consumer spending can act as a disinflationary counterbalance to high energy prices. But that’s not the way a healthy economy combats inflation. Shrinking GDP means a decline in earnings for American businesses. Later in the press conference, Powell noted that the U.S. has faced a barrage of shocks to its system since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. “The U.S. economy has just powered through shock after shock. And consumers are still spending,” he noted. Powell said the decline in consumer spending has yet to show up in the data, and businesses will likely say consumer spending remains strong in public statements and quarterly earnings reports. However, he maintains that discretionary spending will take a hit if consumers spend more on gas and other essentials. We may, in fact, be starting to see it happen. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index hit a record low this month amid concerns about inflation. If that translates into lower consumer spending, it could be bad news for many businesses’ earnings results through the rest of the year.

Fed's target inflation rate ticks up, raises questions about policy stance - The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation climbed to a three-year high in April, bolstering the growing sentiment among monetary policymakers that price growth should be the central bank's top priority.

• Key insight: The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure increased to 3.8% last month, a development that has been anticipated given the pricing impact of the war in Iran.
• Expert quote: "In the U.S., inflation is meaningfully above target, inflation expectations have been creeping higher, and the public is highly sensitive to rising prices. In this environment, if central bankers tolerate higher inflation today based on the hope of lower inflation in the future, the people we serve may lose confidence in our commitment to see inflation return to target." — Alberto Musalem, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
• Forward Look: The Fed could normally look through the pricing impact of an oil shock, but many central bankers are beginning to worry about the public's confidence in returning inflation to 2%.

The Personal Consumer Expenditures price index climbed to nearly 4% in April, arguably making the Fed's interest rate less restrictive and further complicating the central bank's path toward future rate cuts.

Fed's Cook 'prepared to raise rates' if inflation persists - Federal Reserve Gov. Lisa Cook is the latest central bank official to take a hawkish view toward inflation.

• Key insight: Another key policymaker has made the case that inflation has emerged as the central bank's primary concern as the war in Iran continues to drive up prices. 
• Expert quote: "After five years of above-target inflation, I am particularly attuned to the risk that elevated inflation will become embedded in price- and wage-setting behavior. As such, I am prepared to raise rates, if the expected disinflation does not appear in a timely manner."  — Federal Reserve Gov. Lisa Cook.
• Forward Look: Half the members of the Federal Open Market Committee have now publicly backed the idea of abandoning a perceived bias toward easing monetary policy, instead suggesting the committee should shift to a more neutral stance. Economic conditions will likely have to weaken dramatically before the central bank will approve another interest rate cut.

The Federal Reserve Board governor is the latest Fed official to embrace the prospect of tighter monetary policy in response to rapidly rising prices that have taken hold in recent years.

Kansas Fed Pres Warns Oil Price Shock Might Not Be Transitory -Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid has warned that the current global energy shock cannot simply be dismissed as transitory, given already-elevated baseline inflation. Speaking at a conference in Iceland, Schmid pointed out that inflation has stalled near 3% and remained above the Fed's 2% target for a long time, making it challenging for the central bank to "look through’’ surging oil prices. Schmid has argued that current monetary policy may not be restrictive enough, reinforcing his hawkish stance on monetary policy. Schmid has suggested that the Fed may need to consider utilizing its balance sheet as an additional tool to cool down the economy.“We're not very restrictive at this stage and I think there's some dialogue that we need to start considering what tools we have to really make it a little bit more restrictive depending on how the oil shock plays out in an environment of already high inflation," the official said. ‘‘Maybe we look at the balance sheet again as another tool to...create some restriction," he added, suggesting some sort of new drawdown in Fed holdings.Despite high prices driven by geopolitical conflict, Schmid noted that U.S. energy firms are practicing extreme capital discipline and are reluctant to increase oil production due to price uncertainty.  However, Schmid has affirmed that whereas high energy prices are draining consumer purchasing power, the overall economy remains resilient, with steady growth and a balanced labor market. Schmid’s warning comes hot on the heels of another hawkish stance by yet another Fed official. Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan recently warned that the world needs to cut its oil and gas consumption to keep energy prices down. Logan was one of three Fed policymakers who strongly objected to post-meeting statement language that hinted the Fed's next move would be an interest rate cut following the April 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Logan argued that forward guidance should accurately reflect the policy outlook, and that because inflation risks were elevated, an interest rate hike was just as likely as an interest rate cut.

Fed's Bowman warns against hiking interest rates due to inflation spike  - Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman on Friday cautioned against raising interest rates to address the current spike in prices. With inflation running well above the central bank’s 2% target, markets are expecting the Fed to stay on hold this year then possibly start raising rates in early 2027. Current pricing is indicating virtually no chance of cuts anytime through at least 2027. But Bowman said adjusting policy to offset energy-driven inflation surges has proven ineffective. “Reacting to temporarily elevated energy price inflation would add unwarranted policy restraint, weighing unnecessarily on economic activity and labor market conditions,” the policymaker said at a conference in Reykjavík, Iceland. Bowman added that research shows that when reacting to temporary energy shocks, “policy should not be overly aggressive.” The remarks come one day after the Commerce Department reported that the personal consumption expenditures price index — the Fed’s benchmark inflation gauge — rose 3.8% in April and 3.3% when excluding food and energy prices. However, measures that strip out extremes in components within the gauges show inflation running closer to target. The Dallas Fed’s “trimmed mean” inflation index puts the 12-month rate at 2.3%. Consistent with remarks from her fellow central bankers, Bowman noted that the policy reaction depends on the duration of the conflict with Iran. Should the fighting be prolonged and inflation pressures steepen, “the more likely I will consider shifting my approach to thinking about the balance of risks.” Bowman added that she supported maintaining phrasing in the most recent post-meeting statement from the central bank that indicated the next rate move could be a cut. Three members of the Federal Open Market Committee voted against the statement, based on the inclusion of the so-called forward guidance language.

Fed's Bowman willing to look through war-driven inflation bump -  Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said Friday that she believes price growth is still heading toward the central bank's 2% target when factoring out one-time shocks such as tariffs and elevated oil prices.

Fed's Bowman still has a bias toward cutting rates, but that could change - Federal Reserve governor Michelle Bowman said in a speech Friday that she still thinks the impact of the Iran war on inflation will be temporary. But if the conflict stretches on, price pressures could become broader and longer-lasting. Speaking at a conference in Iceland, Bowman said that, for now, the Fed’s benchmark interest rate is “moderately restrictive,” and that’s working. More from Yahoo Scout What factors could change Fed rate cut expectations? Why is Bowman concerned about labor market weakness? How might the Iran conflict affect Fed inflation policy? What is driving the recent PCE inflation increase? “But the longer the conflict persists, the more we should consider the effects on inflation in our outlook,” she said. “In particular, the more persistent higher oil prices are — or if we start to see broader effects of higher energy prices on PCE inflation — the more likely I will consider shifting my approach to thinking about the balance of risks.” Bowman noted that when looking at the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation — the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index — progress in bringing down inflation appears to have stalled. PCE inflation rose 3.8% in April as the conflict in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher. That was up from 3.5% in March. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, on a “core” basis, PCE rose 3.3%, up a tenth from 3.2% in March. That marked the highest core reading in 2.5 years. But Bowman also said that looking at other measures of inflation, like the trimmed mean PCE measure, which excludes outlier prices, core inflation has moved closer to 2%. Bowman said price pressures have become increasingly concentrated in a few goods categories, reflecting tariff effects and idiosyncratic changes in software prices. Bowman said she is still somewhat concerned about the labor market, noting that it appears to have stabilized in recent months but still shows signs of fragility. She pointed to measures beyond payrolls and the 4.3% unemployment rate, which she said show weakness. Notably, she mentioned that the job-finding rate, which measures the percentage of unemployed workers who are able to find a job, has continued on a downward path in recent months. Also, employment growth has been concentrated in healthcare and social assistance — sectors less tied to the highs and lows of economic cycles. Bowman said she favored retaining language in the policy statement from the last meeting that signals that the Fed’s next rate move would be down. That stands in contrast to several others on the committee who objected and wanted to signal that the Fed’s next move could be a cut or a hike, depending on the conflict in Iran and inflation. Bowman said she wants more clarity on the economic impacts from the conflict in the Middle East and the durability of those effects. “I am optimistic that, once the conflict is resolved, supply disruptions will ease, leaving a temporary imprint in PCE inflation and minimal impacts on domestic economic activity,” Bowman said. “But, should disruptions persist well into the second half of the year, we could start to see broader effects on inflation.”

Bessent Now Says No CBDC Under Trump Administration - President Donald Trump’s administration has declared its stance on the creation of a U.S. central bank digital currency (CBDC). Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent formally ruled out such a move amid growing debate over financial surveillance, cryptocurrency regulation, and the future of digital payments in America. Speaking to reporters on Thursday, May 28, Secretary Bessent declared that the idea of a government-backed “digital dollar” has been taken “off the table”. He said the administration views a CBDC as a potential gateway to government monitoring of citizens’ financial activities, distancing the White House from proposals that the Federal Reserve and policymakers in Washington have explored for years. “This administration has been very clear there will be no central bank digital currency, which I think would be the first step toward tracking,” Bessent said. “So we have taken that off the table.” The Treasury Secretary made the remarks in response to a question about Americans’ concerns that future digital payment systems could be used to monitor spending habits or limit financial freedom. Bessent instead promoted the administration’s broader push to regulate privately issued digital assets and stablecoins through legislation currently moving through Congress. “We passed stablecoin legislation, which is bipartisan. And the CLARITY Act is now up on the Hill,” he said. “I think it has bipartisan support.” “The most important thing we can do is to make digital assets come into the United States, make the U.S. the home. Our regulation, our best practices are what will ensure good standards for these,” he added. Bessent further argued that many of the scandals and collapses associated with cryptocurrencies have occurred largely outside U.S. regulatory oversight. “When you look at digital assets, all the nonsense that happens, all the things you read about, that’s because it’s the wild, wild west offshore, so we’ve got to bring it onshore,” he said. “So I would encourage the House and the Senate to get CLARITY done.” The Federal Reserve has repeatedly emphasized that it has made no formal decision to launch a digital dollar. However, it has spent years researching the concept through various pilot initiatives and discussion papers. In February 2026, the Fed said it had been exploring “the potential benefits and risks of CBDCs from a variety of angles,” adding that its key focus was whether a CBDC could improve an “already safe and efficient” U.S. payment system. The central bank also noted that any potential CBDC would require support from both Congress and the executive branch before implementation.

Solid 5Y Auction Despite 12th Consecutive Tail, Thanks To Stellar Foreign Demand After a mediocre 2Y auction on Tuesday, moments ago the Treasury sold the week's second coupon auction when it auctioned off $70BN in 5Y paper to solid demand, some superficial weakness notwithstanding. The auction stopped at a high yield of 4.182%, up from 3.955% in April and the highest yield since Jan 2025. The auction also tailed the 4.181% When Issued by 0.1bp, which was the 12th consecutive tailing auction for the tenor, the longest stretch on record. The bid to cover was 2.34, up from 2.33 last month, and right on top of the 6-auction average 2 339. What is notable here is just how much the BTC has flatlined in the past 3 years. The internals were also solid with Indirects awarded 74.85%, the highest since May 2025 and one of the highest on record. And with Directs awarded 12.34%, the lowest since March 2025, Dealers were left with 12.8% of the auction, up fractionally from 12.7% in April and above the recent average of 12.0%. Overall, this was a solid auction with impressive foreign demand, where the only blemish was the tiny tail, which however one can ignore considering the impressive foreign bid.

House GOP still planning for third reconciliation bill - House Budget Chair Jodey Arrington said Thursday he wants the House to move a budget blueprint for a narrow, party-line policy package in June as House GOP leaders weigh whether they can advance the long-shot legislation by the end of July.“We can do a resolution and put flexibilities in the budget resolution,” the Texas Republican said, noting Republicans can add spending caps and other targets in the blueprint required to kick-start the filibuster-skirting budget reconciliation process. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) hosted a meeting Thursday morning with Arrington, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.), several GOP caucus heads, and some key rank-and-file members, where the discussion centered around the path forward on advancing a third reconciliation bill — a follow-up to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act from last July and the immigration enforcement measure Republicans hope to pass in the coming days.Republicans at this latest meeting discussed ways so-called Reconciliation 3.0 could tackle fraud and improve affordability of everyday goods, according to four people granted anonymity to share private conversations.

Trump Says He Told US Negotiators Not to 'Rush Into a Deal' With Iran - - President Trump said in a post on Truth Social on Sunday that he told his negotiators not to “rush into a deal” with Iran, comments that come after a series of reports said that a memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran could be reached soon.“The negotiations are proceeding in an orderly and constructive manner, and I have informed my representatives not to rush into a deal in that time is on our side,” the president wrote. “The Blockade will remain in full force and effect until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed. Both sides must take their time and get it right. There can be no mistakes! Our relationship with Iran is becoming a much more professional and productive one,” Trump added.According to media reports, the potential deal that’s on the table would essentially bring the region into a status that was supposed to be achieved under the initial US-Iran ceasefire by ending the US blockade of Iranian ports and opening the Strait of Hormuz to more commercial traffic.Amjaj Media reported on Saturday that the deal would also release billions in frozen Iranian funds, withdraw American forces from the immediate vicinity of Iran, start a 30-day period for negotiating nuclear issues that could be extended, and bring a real ceasefire in Lebanon, though it’s unlikely Israel will agree to end its occupation of southern Lebanon and attacks in the country.While both US and Iranian sources spoke positively of the negotiations on Saturday and notable Iran hawks in the US expressed panic, the chances of a deal seemed less likely on Sunday. Ali Hashem, a reporter for Al Jazeera, cited an Iranian source who told him that the US was now backing away from two key tenets of the potential deal: the unfreezing of Iranian assets and a real truce in Lebanon.“According to the source, the memorandum includes a Lebanon ceasefire framework, but Israel is reportedly uncomfortable with the arrangement and is pushing Washington to include language allowing it to carry out military operations in Lebanon under the justification of responding to ‘any threat.’ Iran is rejecting that formulation and insisting on a sustainable and lasting ceasefire,” Hashem wrote on X. Hashem added that the “overall picture suggests Tehran increasingly views Washington as backing away from earlier understandings reached through mediators.”A statement from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also cast doubt on a deal, as he said that he and Trump spoke on Saturday night and agreed on certain conditions for an agreement that Tehran would likely reject.“President Trump and I agreed that any final agreement with Iran must eliminate the nuclear danger. That means dismantling Iran’s nuclear enrichment sites and removing its enriched nuclear material from its territory,” Netanyahu wrote on X. He added that Trump also “reaffirmed Israel’s right to defend itself against threats on every front, including Lebanon.”US sources also told Axios reporter Barak Ravid that a deal was not expected to be signed on Sunday, as some reports initially suggested, and said that an agreement could still be signed within days, though they expressed that the negotiations could still fall apart. “We are in a very good place — but there are ways in which the deal can be undermined,” a senior Trump official told Ravid.The threat of a resumption of the full-scale US-Israeli bombing campaign remains, though Trump isn’t expected to do so until after the Hajj, the annual Islamic pilgrimage to Mecca, Saudi Arabia, which will end on May 29. According to a report from Middle East Eye, the US’s Gulf allies warned Trump not to resume the attacks during the pilgrimage.

Trump not rushing Iran deal, whacks critics as 'losers' - President Donald Trump on Sunday urged his negotiating team not to rush a deal with Iran to end the war and open the Strait of Hormuz, while appearing to slam critics of the brewing deal. Trump’s comments on Truth Social are largely a continuation of the status quo from Saturday, when Trump said that a deal with Iran was “largely negotiated.”  Trump said that “time is on our side” in the push to end the nearly three-month-old conflict that has whipsawed global energy markets and spiked gasoline prices in the U.S. “The negotiations are proceeding in an orderly and constructive manner, and I have informed my representatives not to rush into a deal in that time is on our side,” Trump said in the social media post. “Both sides must take their time and get it right. There can be no mistakes!” The president said the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports would remain in effect until “an agreement is reached, certified, and signed.” According to MS Now, the deal being negotiated would open the Strait of Hormuz, end the hostilities, unfreeze certain Iranian assets and guarantee further negotiations to curb Tehran’s nuclear program. Trump said in the Truth Social post that Iran “must understand, however, that they cannot develop or procure a Nuclear Weapon or Bomb.” The president has been catching flak from some Republicans and allies over a rumored deal. Mike Pompeo, who served as Secretary of State in Trump’s first term, said the deal being floated would ”[p]ay the IRGC to build a WMD program and terrorize the world.” “Not remotely America First. It’s straightforward: Open the damned strait. Deny Iran access to money. Take out enough Iranian capability so it cannot threaten our allies in the region,” Pompeo said in a post to X on Saturday. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, on Saturday said he was “deeply concerned about what we are hearing about an Iran ‘deal.’” “If the result of all that is to be an Iranian regime—still run by Islamists who chant ‘death to America’—now receiving billions of dollars, being able to enrich uranium & develop nuclear weapons, and having effective control over the Strait of Hormuz, then that outcome would be a disastrous mistake,” Cruz said in a social media post. Trump appeared to address those concerns on Sunday, after his surrogates went after critics on social media a day earlier. Trump said in another post that, ”[I]f I make a deal with Iran, it will be a good and proper one, not like the one made by Obama, which gave Iran massive amounts of CASH, and a clear and open path to a Nuclear Weapon.” Former President Barack Obama’s administration signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, in 2015. The multilateral deal constrained the Iranian nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. Trump and Republicans have long panned that deal, and the president withdrew the U.S. from it during his first term. “Our deal is the exact opposite, but nobody has seen it, or knows what it is. It isn’t even fully negotiated yet. So don’t listen to the losers, who are critical about something they know nothing about,” Trump said. “Unlike those before me who should have solved this problem many years ago, I don’t make bad deals!” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a social media post on Sunday that he spoke to Trump on Saturday night about the “memorandum of understanding to reopen the Straits of Hormuz and the upcoming negotiations toward a final agreement on Iran’s nuclear program.” The Israeli leader said that any deal with Iran must include limiting its nuclear capabilities, which Netanyahu said means “dismantling Iran’s nuclear enrichment sites and removing its enriched nuclear material from its territory.” He also said that Trump “reaffirmed Israel’s right to defend itself against threats on every front, including Lebanon.” Israeli strikes in Lebanon have been a sticking point in past negotiations between the U.S. and Iran.

WSJ warns potential US-Iran peace deal risks 'strategic setback'  -- The Wall Street Journal editorial board on Sunday pushed back on the reported terms of a peace deal being negotiated by the Trump administration and Iranian government.The editorial board wrote that while the administration “can claim real achievements” from the war, the ceasefire period “may deliver a strategic setback” for the U.S. Multiple outlets reported Sunday that the potential agreement involves a 60-day ceasefire, which would allow for the two sides to negotiate restrictions on Tehran’s nuclear program. Under the deal, the U.S. would end its naval blockade of Iranian ports — a measure it took in response to the Iranian military restricting transit through the Strait of Hormuz.Iran’s effective closure of the strait, which carries roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply, resulted in higher oil prices globally and increased prices at the pump for Americans. Those costs dipped slightly after the potential deal was reported.On Saturday, U.S. Central Command (CentCom) said that it had redirected 100 vessels as part of the blockade, which began on April 13. Centcom noted that its forces have also disabled four vessels and allowed 26 humanitarian aid ships to pass during that time span. The Journal’s editorial board, however, wrote that if the U.S. ends the blockade and allows Iran to sell its oil as part of a peace deal, the administration’s lone tool to “coerce” the Islamic Republic into nuclear concessions “is the threat of renewed war.”It added, “But Trump wasn’t willing to do that after Iran reneged on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and attacked U.S. forces and Gulf allies. How credible will the threat be 60 days closer to midterms, when it would trigger a new Iranian blockade of Hormuz? A pledge not to build a nuclear weapon means nothing because the regime has always said that while doing the opposite.”President Trump wrote on Truth Social Monday that negotiations with Iran “are proceeding nicely.”He added, “It will only be a Great Deal for all or, no Deal at all — Back to the Battlefront and shooting, but bigger and stronger than ever before — And nobody wants that!”Secretary of State Marco Rubio also told reporters Monday that the two sides have a “solid” deal on the table. “The President’s not going to make a bad agreement,” he said during a press conference from New Delhi, India. “So, let’s see what happens. We’re going to give diplomacy every chance to succeed before we explore the alternatives.”But the editorial board wrote that it is “fair to wonder” if the political pressure imposed by rising gas prices and bond yields is pushing Trump toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, even if it is “on Iran’s terms.”It concluded, “Iran’s regime went into this war facing domestic political and economic crises. War has made these worse. Saving such a regime now with an economic bailout would be the real betrayal—of the U.S. interest even more than the Iranian people.”

Sen. Lindsey Graham Backs Trump's Suggestion To Tie Any Iran Deal To Expanding Abraham Accords - Sen. Lindsey Graham on Sunday backed President Trump’s suggestion that any deal with Iran could be tied to expanding the Abraham Accords, the diplomatic deals under which the UAE and Bahrain normalized relations with Israel in 2020. But the idea of normalizing relations with Israel has very little support among the Gulf Arab countries that have not done so, which include Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman, as Israel continues its occupation of territory in Gaza, the expansion of settlements in the West Bank, and its war in Lebanon.     According to a report from Axios, Trump suggested the idea in a call with regional leaders and was met with silence. “There was silence on the line and Trump joked and asked if they are still there,” an unnamed US official told Ravid. Despite the lack of support for expanding the Abraham Accords, Graham showed strong support for the idea. “If in fact as a result of these negotiations to end the Iranian conflict, our Arab and Muslim allies in the region agreed to join the Abraham Accords, it would make this agreement one of the most consequential in the history of the Middle East,” he wrote on X. “To Saudi Arabia and others: Now is the time to be bold for the future of a new Middle East. I expect, as President Trump has suggested, you will in fact join the Abraham Accords effectively ending the Arab-Israeli conflict,” Graham added. The notoriously hawkish senator also said that if regional countries refuse to open diplomatic relations with Israel, it “will have severe repercussions for our future relationships and make this peace proposal unacceptable” and urged President Trump to “stick to your guns in getting a good deal with Iran. Equally important, stick to your guns in insisting Saudi Arabia and others join the Abraham Accords as part of these negotiations.” Graham’s praise for Trump’s Iran strategy came just a day after he expressed alarm over reports that the US and Iran were close to a deal that would end the US blockade of Iranian ports and open the Strait of Hormuz to more traffic as the two sides hold negotiations on the nuclear issue. “If a deal is struck to end the Iranian conflict because it is believed that the Strait of Hormuz cannot be protected from Iranian terrorism and Iran still possesses the capability to destroy major Gulf oil infrastructure, then Iran will be perceived as being a dominate force requiring a diplomatic solution,” Graham said on Saturday. He said such a situation would be a “major shift of the balance of power in the region and over time will be a nightmare for Israel” and questioned what the point of the war would have been. “Also, it makes one wonder why the war started to begin with if these perceptions are accurate. I personally am a skeptic of the idea that Iran cannot be denied the ability to terrorize the Strait and the region cannot protect itself against Iranian military capability,” he added.Graham’s change in tune reflects reporting that a deal appears to be less likely now than it was on Saturday. It also suggests he may have spoken to Trump about the situation, as the two are known to be in close contact, though the president appeared to respond to the criticism of a potential deal from Iran hawks.  “If I make a deal with Iran, it will be a good and proper one, not like the one made by Obama, which gave Iran massive amounts of CASH, and a clear and open path to a Nuclear Weapon. Our deal is the exact opposite, but nobody has seen it, or knows what it is. It isn’t even fully negotiated yet,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “So don’t listen to the losers, who are critical about something they know nothing about. Unlike those before me who should have solved this problem many years ago, I don’t make bad deals!” he added.

Iran talks bog down over nuclear program, sanctions relief - Progress toward a deal to end the war with Iran slowed Monday as the two sides dug in over references to the country’s nuclear program and financial relief for Tehran, mediators said. The slowdown followed a weekend that began with President Trump and other administration officials saying a deal was close and ended with Trump saying he wouldn’t rush to conclude an agreement that wasn’t right. After the initial reports of the deal surfaced, Trump came under criticism from more hawkish members of his party who worried an agreement could open the Strait of Hormuz and ease the financial pressure on Iran’s regime but leave its nuclear program intact. “The deal with Iran will either be a great and meaningful one, or there will be no deal,” Trump said early Monday on social media, blasting his Republican and Democratic critics as knowing nothing about the deal under negotiation. The two sides are working toward a memorandum of understanding that would end the fighting and lift constraints on shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz over 30 days while setting the stage for talks about Iran’s nuclear program in a second phase. Relief from sanctions would depend on progress, a senior U.S. administration official said Sunday. The U.S. is seeking clearer commitments from Iran about its nuclear program up front, while Iranian negotiators are pressing for details from the U.S. about relief from sanctions and asset freezes, mediators said. U.S. officials worry Iran will drag its feet on nuclear issues after securing some relief, the mediators said. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said Monday that progress has been made on many of the issues in the talks but that an agreement wasn’t imminent. There is pressure on both sides to get to a deal. Trump has been eager to end a war that is unpopular at home and has raised the price of gasoline, putting pressure on consumers. Iran is eager to secure financial relief after the war and U.S. blockade added to the pressure of what was already a spiraling economic crisis. Gulf countries also broadly support the effort, though they worry the U.S. could disengage before security concerns raised by Iran’s bombardment of the region during the war are addressed. Mediators said Arab countries including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have pressed them to include a clear clause in the memorandum of understanding that would ensure freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has so far agreed to waive fees on ships passing through the strategic waterway for the duration of the talks. But the Foreign Ministry spokesman said the country continues to assert a role managing the strait and has discussed receiving fees for transit and protection services. Israel is also concerned the U.S. could do a deal that would ease the economic and military pressure on Tehran and tie its hands, particularly in its fight against the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia in Lebanon. Israel is pressing its American contacts and publicly via the media for a tougher deal with more commitments from Iran, a person familiar with the matter said. Mediators said one concern is who is calling the shots in Iran, with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei not seen or heard from since being appointed in March. They said they are trying to determine his views on the various issues being debated in the draft text. The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman pointed to the divisions in the American government as well. “Because policymaking and decision-making in America are afflicted by a kind of institutional instability, we witness frequent changes in positions,” he said, according to state media.

Iran and US play down hopes for imminent breakthrough in war (Reuters) - Iran and the United States played down hopes for an imminent breakthrough in the three-month-old war on Monday, with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio saying there will either be a good agreement or Washington would deal with the country in "another way." Rubio told reporters in New Delhi that the U.S. would give diplomacy every chance to succeed before exploring "alternatives", after President Donald Trump said on Sunday he had told his representatives not to rush into any Iran deal. There was a "pretty solid thing on the table in terms of their ability to open up the strait, get the strait open, enter into a very real, significant, time-limited negotiation on the nuclear matter, and hopefully we can pull it off," Rubio said. Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said on Monday that Iran was negotiating an end to the war and was not currently discussing nuclear issues. The spokesperson added that a framework had been reached but no one could say an agreement between the United States and Iran was imminent. The potential memorandum of understanding contained no specific details about the management of the Strait of Hormuz, which belongs to the coastal countries, he said. A day earlier, Trump wrote on Truth Social that the U.S. blockade on Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz would "remain in full force and effect until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed". He added, "Both sides must take their time and get it right." Oil prices fell 5% to two-week lows on Monday, as optimism grew that the U.S. and Iran were moving closer to a peace deal. Trump raised expectations of an imminent deal on Saturday when he said Washington and Tehran had "largely negotiated" a memorandum of understanding on a peace agreement that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson said on Monday that Iran would not take tolls for passage through the vital waterway, but added that it was "normal for services provided to require a price". Before the conflict, the strait had carried a fifth of global shipments of oil and liquefied natural gas. The two sides remain at odds on several difficult issues, such as Iran's nuclear ambitions, Israel's war in Lebanon with the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militia and Tehran's demands for the lifting of sanctions and the release of tens of billions of dollars of Iranian oil revenues frozen in foreign banks. A senior Trump administration official outlined what he said were the latest contours of issues being negotiated. Speaking on the condition of anonymity, the official said Iran had agreed "in principle" to open the Strait of Hormuz, in exchange for the United States lifting its naval blockade, and to dispose of Tehran's highly enriched uranium. The U.S. understood Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei had endorsed the broad template of the deal, he added. The official pushed back on suggestions that Iran had not accepted disposing of its stockpiled enriched uranium. "It's a question about how," the official said. A second senior administration official said on Sunday the proposed framework would give negotiators 60 days to reach a final deal. Iranian sources had told Reuters that in future stages, "feasible formulas" could be found to resolve the dispute over its highly enriched uranium stockpile, including diluting the material under the supervision of the U.N. nuclear watchdog. Iran has long denied U.S. and Israeli accusations that it is pursuing nuclear weapons and says it has a right to enrich uranium for civilian purposes, although the purity it has achieved far exceeds that needed for power generation. Trump, whose approval ratings have been hit by the war's impact on U.S. energy prices, and who has faced congressional efforts to curb his war powers, has repeatedly played up the prospect of a deal to end the conflict started by the U.S. and Israel on February 28.

Trump Says It's 'Mandatory' for Muslim Nations To Join Abraham Accords as Part of Iran Deal -   President Trump said in a long post on Truth Social on Monday that it should be “mandatory” for Arab and Muslim states to join the Abraham Accords to normalize relations with Israel as part of any Iran deal, and threatened that if the condition isn’t met, full-scale war will resume “bigger and stronger than ever before.” Insisting on more Muslim countries joining the Abraham Accords as a condition for an Iran deal would likely ensure that an agreement won’t be reached, as the Gulf Arab states that haven’t normalized relations with Israel, which include Qatar, Oman, and Saudi Arabia, have long maintained they won’t do so unless the issue of Israel’s occupation of the Palestinian territories is resolved. After Trump’s post, a Saudi official told CNN that Riyadh won’t normalize with Israel until an “irreversible pathway” toward a Palestinian state is established. The president said in his post that a potential agreement with Iran will “only be a Great Deal for all or, no Deal at all — Back to the Battlefront and shooting, but bigger and stronger than ever before — And nobody wants that!” Trump said that during talks on Saturday with the leaders of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, and Jordan, he told them that “after all the work done by the United States to try and pull this very complex puzzle together, it should be mandatory that all of these Countries, at a minimum, simultaneously, sign onto the Abraham Accords.”According to a report from Axios, when Trump made the proposal during the call, he was met with silence. “There was silence on the line and Trump joked and asked if they are still there,” an unnamed US official told Axios reporter Barak Ravid. CNN reported that Trump made the comment “in passing” and that it was not met with a response or acknowledgment from the leaders on the call.Trump said in his post that the countries that he discussed joining the Abraham Accords include “Saudi Arabia, The United Arab Emirates (already a Member!), Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, and Bahrain (already a Member!).” He said that it may be “possible that one or two have a reason for not doing so, and that will be accepted, but most should be ready, willing, and able to make this Settlement with Iran a far more Historic Event than it would, otherwise, be.”Trump added that Saudi Arabia and Qatar should sign a deal to normalize with Israel “immediately” and that other countries should follow suit, and even suggested that Iran could join the Abraham Accords. “By copy of this TRUTH, I am asking my Representatives to begin, and successfully complete, the process of signing these Countries into the already Historic Abraham Accords. Thank you for your attention to this matter!” he concluded.

Trump calls for 'mandatory' adherence to Abraham Accords in Iran ceasefire talks -- US President Donald Trump on Monday threw a new wrench into any deal to end the war on Iran, saying that Saudi Arabia and other Muslim-majority nations must normalise ties with Israel as part of efforts to reach a deal. The remarks took a US diplomat and an Arab diplomat by surprise. Both said that it was unlikely there would be any movement on normalisation. The Arab official told MEE that Trump may be using normalisation as a “lubricant” to ensure Israeli buy-in for any deal with Iran. Israel on Monday escalated its strikes on Lebanon, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saying that he had ordered the military to "crush" Hezbollah. Iran has been adamant that any agreement to end the war include Lebanon. "After all the work done by the United States to try and pull this very complex puzzle together, it should be mandatory that all of these Countries, at a minimum, simultaneously, sign onto the Abraham Accords," Trump wrote in a lengthy social media post. "Those Countries discussed are Saudi Arabia, The United Arab Emirates (already a Member!), Qatar, Pakistan, Turkiye, Egypt, Jordan, and Bahrain (already a Member!).” Trump considers the 2020 Abraham Accords, through which the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco normalised ties with Israel, as a major foreign policy achievement. But several of the countries he listed already have diplomatic ties with Israel, although they have become seriously strained by Israel’s genocide in Gaza, where more than 72,790 Palestinians have been killed, and military adventurism against Syria, Lebanon and Iran. Egypt and Israel established diplomatic ties in 1979, and Jordan followed in 1994. Turkey was the first Muslim-majority country to recognise Israel in 1949. The US has been lobbying Saudi Arabia for years to normalise ties with Israel. Riyadh mulled the idea in exchange for US weapons and nuclear technology before 7 October 2023, but Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has since publicly accused Israel of committing genocide in Gaza and has tied recognition explicitly to the establishment of a Palestinian state. Pakistan, the Muslim world’s only nuclear-armed state, also has a chilly opinion of Israel. Meanwhile, Qatar was attacked by Israel in September 2025, when the latter targeted Hamas negotiators in Doha. Shortly after Trump’s social media post, an unidentified Saudi source reiterated to several major US news outlets that the kingdom would only normalise ties with Israel if it agreed to "an irreversible pathway to a Palestinian state”.

After Trump call, Saudi source says no normalization with Israel without 'irreversible pathway' to Palestinian state -- Saudi Arabia will only normalize relations with Israel if an “irreversible pathway” to Palestinian statehood is established, a Saudi source tells international outlets, following US President Donald Trump’s insistence that Riyadh and other Muslim-majority and regional states join the Abraham Accords.Trump called on Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, and Pakistan earlier today to join the Abraham Accords normalization agreements “immediately,” ahead of any US agreement with Iran. The Trump administration has long viewed Saudi-Israeli normalization as the crown jewel of the Abraham Accords, though efforts toward that end largely stalled during Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza. Riyadh has since repeatedly insisted that such an agreement follow meaningful movement on the Palestinian issue.

May 25: Iran vows not to yield to US pressure in negotiations to end imposed war -Iran on Monday reaffirmed its unwavering position in ongoing negotiations to end the third imposed war, with senior officials vowing the Islamic Republic will not yield to US pressure or maximalist demands.Top Iranian officials, including Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, held talks with Qatari officials in Doha on Tuesday as diplomatic efforts moved forward Meanwhile, the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) reported steady and secure ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with more than 30 ships transiting in 24 hours.  The day also saw continued regional fallout, including new Israeli strikes in Lebanon and fresh disclosures about the human and economic costs of the US-Israeli war on Iran.Key developments on day 87 of the war, the forty-seventh day of the ceasefire:

• The United States carried out a deliberate and barbaric missile strike on a civilian sports hall in the city of Lamerd in Fars Province during the 40-day war against Iran, martyring 24 innocent Iranians and injuring over 130 others, Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei revealed in harrowing details.
• President Masoud Pezeshkian declared that Iran will not surrender to US pressures and maximalist demands, saying the country’s negotiators will ensure the full restoration of the nation’s rights through the diplomatic process.
• Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, in his first message since assuming office, stated that the Islamic Republic “will not retreat” in any agreement.
• Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held talks with top Qatari officials in Doha amid diplomatic efforts to end the unprovoked US-Israeli war against Iran. 
• Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman said indirect talks with the United States are centred on ending aggression on all fronts and that the nuclear issue or the management of the Stratif of Hormuz are not part of the negotiations.
• Iran’s IRGC Navy said 32 more ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours after obtaining permission from the Iranian forces following improved security in the strategic waterway. 
• Mohammad Mokhber, senior advisor to the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, said the country is repeating history by gaining strength through steadfastness.
• Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Naqdi, senior advisor to the IRGC commander-in-chief, said that the US and Israel unleashed over 2,100 projectiles and nearly 300 surface-to-surface missiles against Iran's strategic Abu Musa island during the recent war of aggression.
• Iran’s National Olympic Committee announced that it has named the contingent of Iranian athletes scheduled to participate in the 2026 Asian Indoor and Martial Arts Games after "Martyred Leader." 
• An Iranian civil aviation official said 20 airports across the country have successfully resumed operations following the recent US-Israeli aggression.
• Wafiq Safa, head of Hezbollah's Liaison and Coordination Unit, said the Lebanese resistance movement will never engage in a confrontation with the Lebanese army, and that the resistance group remains the most effective force against Israeli occupation forces.
• At least six people were killed in the latest round of Israeli airstrikes against multiple locations in southern Lebanon, as the Israeli army issued fresh evacuation orders amid ongoing military aggression.
• Gold prices rose 1.4 percent to $4,570.88 per ounce on Monday, while oil prices fell as benchmark London Brent crude fell 4 percent below $100 a barrel. The price increased amid a weaker dollar as capital investors weigh US-Iran peace deal prospects.
• The US-Israeli aggression against Iran could cost American taxpayers billions of dollars, as investor fears over rising inflation add to the US government’s debt burden, the Financial Times reported.
• US President Donald Trump told several Arab and Muslim leaders that he expects them to establish formal relations with Israel in exchange for a ceasefire deal with Iran to end the war, according to American officials.

Fox News: US hit missile site in Bandar Abbas after attack on fighter jets --US forces carried out a strike on a surface-to-air missile site in Bandar Abbas after it allegedly targeted American fighter jets, according to a senior US official quoted by Fox News.The network, citing informed sources, reported that the military action was defensive in nature and did not signal the end of the ongoing ceasefire. According to the report, the targeted site was an Iranian air-defence position that US officials said posed a threat to American aircraft operating in the area.

U.S. conducts 'self-defense strikes' in Iran as Trump seeks peace deal U.S. forces conducted “self defense” strikes in southern Iran early Tuesday, with U.S. Central Command saying the military action was to “protect our troops from threats posed by Iranian forces.“ CENTCOM spokesman Tim Hawkins said targets included missile launch sites and Iranian boats attempting to emplace mines “U.S. Central Command continues to defend our forces while using restraint during the ongoing ceasefire,” Hawkins added. The action comes as U.S. President Donald Trump said Monday stateside that the talks with Iran were “proceeding nicely.” However, he warned that “it will only be a Great Deal for all or, no Deal at all,” threatening to take things “Back to the Battlefront and shooting, but bigger and stronger than ever before.” U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is in India, said that the Strait of Hormuz has to be open, “one way or the other,” referring to U.S. action against Iran, Reuters reported. He added that the deal with Iran could take a few days. Fox News, citing senior U.S. officials on Monday said that the Iran deal was “95% there.”  In a separate Truth Social post, the U.S. President said Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium will be “immediately turned over to the United States to be brought home and destroyed,” destroyed in Iran or “at another acceptable location.” Trump also urged Arab nations to sign the Abraham Accords, which would normalize their relations with Israel. However, Pakistan roundly rejected the proposal, with a source telling Reuters that the two issues were “not interlinked and cannot be made so.” Oil prices were mixed Tuesday morning, with U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures down about 5% at $91.87 per barrel, but international benchmark Brent was up 2.14% at $98.2. Chen Lanhee, partner at advisory firm Brunswick, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” that a majority of the American public wants the war to be over. “It doesn’t matter what Iran does or doesn’t have, it doesn’t matter what the contours of the deal are. They just want the war over to bring petrol or gas prices down,” Chen said.

US Military Says It Bombed Southern Iran - US Central Command on Monday took credit for attacks on Iran after Iranian media reported explosions in the southern port city of Bandar Abbas on the Strait of Hormuz.In a statement to CNN, CENTCOM spokesman Timothy Hawkins framed the attack on Iran as “self-defense” even though the strikes come as the US is enforcing a blockade on the country that’s part of the same war of aggression the US and Israel launched against the Islamic Republic on February 28.“US forces conducted self-defense strikes in southern Iran today to protect our troops from threats posed by Iranian forces,” Hawkins said, adding that the US targeted missile launch sites and Iranian boats he claimed were attempting to lay mines. “US Central Command continues to defend our forces while using restraint during the ongoing ceasefire,” he said.Unconfirmed reports say that four members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were killed in the attack on Bandar Abbas. Fox News reporter Jennifer Griffin said on X that she was told the US strikes on Iran were “over for now,” but it’s unclear how Iran will respond, and the US attack could mean the resumption of full-blown war in the region, something President Trump has repeatedly threatened.Since the US and Iran agreed to a ceasefire last month, the US has bombed Iranian ports at least one other time and has attacked several Iranian commercial vessels in its enforcement of the blockade, which Tehran says is a violation of the truce deal since it’s an act of war.

Iran Says US Violated Ceasefire and Vows It Will 'Leave No Act of Aggression Unanswered' -  The Iranian Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Tuesday that the US committed a “flagrant violation” of the ceasefire between the US and Iran, a statement that came a day after the US military said that it launched strikes against targets in southern Iran.The statement said that the US committed ceasefire violations over the past 48 hours in Iran’s Hormozgan province. US Central Command said that it struck Iranian missile launch sites in southern Iran after Iranian media reported explosions in Bandar Abbas, a port city on the Strait of Hormuz in Hormozgan.The Iranian ministry said that it “strongly condemns” the US attacks and “holds the American regime fully responsible for all consequences arising from these aggressive acts.” The ministry also suggested Iran would respond.“Without any doubt, the Islamic Republic of Iran will leave no act of aggression unanswered and will show not the slightest hesitation in defending the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Iran,” the statement said.According to US officials, the US bombed Iranian boats that it claimed were laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, and then targeted missile launch sites used to target US aircraft. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said in a statement that its air defense forces shot down a US MQ-9 Reaper drone over the Persian Gulf and also fired on an RQ-4 Global Hawk surveillance drone and an “intruding” F-35 fighter jet.Iranian sources told Al Jazeera that several IRGC personnel were killed by the US attack on Bandar Abbas, but so far, the casualties haven’t been confirmed by Tehran. The IRGC said that it has a “legitimate and definite right” to respond to ceasefire violations by the “aggressor US military.”The US attack came amid negotiations between Washington and Tehran that are being mediated by Pakistan and follows a pattern of Iran being bombed during talks with the US. “The perpetration of these aggressive actions, concurrent with the ongoing diplomatic process mediated by Pakistan, once again exposed the dishonesty and unreliability of the ruling establishment of the United States to the Iranian nation, the peoples of the region, and the international community,” the Iranian Foreign Ministry said.

Iran's Supreme Leader Says Region Will No Longer Be a 'Safe Haven' for US Military Bases --- Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei said in a written statement on Tuesday that the US will no longer have a “safe haven” in the Middle East for its military bases, remarks that come after the Iranian military struck US bases across the region during the US-Israeli bombing campaign against Iran. In the statement, released to mark the Hajj season, when Muslim pilgrims travel to Mecca, Saudi Arabia, Khamenei addressed other Muslim nations in comments that appeared to be directed at the Gulf Arab states that host US bases and were struck by Iranian missiles and drones.“I, with sincerity and purity of intention, invite all Islamic countries and governments to friendship and cooperation in goodness, so that by working together we may take steps toward the advancement of the Islamic Ummah and the resolution of the Islamic world’s problems,” Khamenei said, according to an English translation of the statement posted on his website.“What is certain in this regard is that the hands of time will not turn back, and the nations and lands of the region will no longer serve as shields for US bases. The United States not only will no longer have a safe haven for its mischief and for establishing military bases in the region but day by day, it is growing more distant from its former status,” he added.The Iranian leader also referenced Israel, saying that the “shaken Zionist regime and the cancerous tumor of Israel are likewise approaching the final stages of their wretched existence.”Khamenei has yet to make a public appearance since replacing his father, Ali Khamenei, who was killed by an Israeli strike alongside other members of his family on February 28, the first day of the joint US-Israeli bombing campaign. Western media reports have said that Mojtaba Khamenei was wounded in the strike but that he is still playing a critical role in shaping Iran’s war strategy.

May 26: Leader urges Muslim unity as Iran reports US truce violations and downs MQ-9  --In his Hajj message on Tuesday, Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei called on Muslim nations to deepen cooperation in shaping a new regional and global order, declaring the end of the American era.Meanwhile, Iran strongly condemned new ceasefire violations by the United States, as the country's armed forces warned of heavier retaliation following fresh American strikes near Bandar Abbas and the downing of a US MQ-9 drone by the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps' (IRGC) air defense systems.Separately, Iranian officials outlined the required steps for any agreement to end the US-led war of aggression against the Islamic Republic, even as Israeli attacks continued in southern Lebanon on Tuesday.  Key developments on day 88 of the war, the forty-eighth day of the ceasefire:

• In his Hajj message, Leader of the Islamic Revolution urged Muslim countries to deepen cooperation and shape a new regional and global order away from American dominance that has now ended.
• President Masoud Pezeshkian called for greater unity and cooperation among Muslim countries, saying solidarity across the Islamic world is essential to confronting threats and crises in West Asia.
• Brigadier General Abolfazl Shekarchi, a senior spokesperson for the country's armed forces, warned of “heavier and more severe” counterattacks in the event of a new aggression by the United States and the Israeli regime, saying the country has renewed its target bank and is ready for war
• Iran's foreign ministry condemned in the strongest terms "flagrant and unjustified" ceasefire violations by the United States in the Strait of Hormuz. The foreign ministry warned that Washington's true behaviour has been exposed once again and that no act of aggression will go unanswered.
• US forces launched unprovoked strikes on sites in southern Iran late on Monday, targeting areas near the strategic port city of Bandar Abbas, according to reports from American media outlets that even the aggressors themselves were forced to acknowledge.
• The IRGC said its air defense units intercepted and shot down a US MQ-9 Reaper drone over the Persian Gulf, warning that any violation of the ceasefire by the United States will be met with a severe response.
• According to a statement released by the IRGC Navy Public Relations Department on Tuesday, 25 ships, including oil tankers, container ships and other commercial vessels, successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz during the past 24 hours after obtaining permission and receiving comprehensive security coordination and protection from the IRGC Navy.
• Brigadier General Seyed Majid Ibn Reza, Iran’s acting Defence Minister, said the country made breakthroughs in air defence technology during the joint US-Israeli war of aggression against Iran, enabling its armed forces to target more than 200 enemy aircraft.
• Chairman of Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee Ebrahim Azizi said the United States must take five necessary confidence-building steps before it can reach any agreement with Iran, emphasising that there will be no deal without such measures.
• The steps include an end to the war on all fronts, particularly in Lebanon, with guarantees that the war will not be repeated; the lifting of the naval blockade; acceptance of Iranian arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz; the suspension of oil sanctions; and the release of Iran’s blocked assets.
• A new report stated the issue of Iran's frozen assets remains a key sticking point in the talks between Tehran and Washington, and that negotiations cannot proceed without the release of these funds. 
• A ringleader of a Mossad spy network convicted of collaborating with the Israeli intelligence service and carrying out multiple sabotage and terrorist operations inside and outside the country was executed, the Iranian judiciary announced.
• Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) chief Aleksandr Bortnikov warned that Western intelligence agencies are planning to use Daesh-affiliated Takfiri militants in Syria as a proxy force against Iran.
• The Israeli occupation military expanded its attacks in southern Lebanon, stepping up air and ground operations across the region.
• At least 17 civilians were killed in a series of Israeli artillery and aerial strikes against multiple locations in southern Lebanon, as the regime’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, ordered the military to intensify offensives against the Arab country.
• Two Israeli cabinet ministers, Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, openly called for cutting electricity supplies to Lebanon, seizing the Zahrani River, and demolishing dozens of buildings in Beirut, in a brazen display of the illegal entity’s inherent aggression and desperation.
• The Lebanese Islamic resistance movement Hezbollah fighters destroyed two Israeli army Merkava tanks and struck multiple enemy positions and troop gatherings in southern Lebanon in a series of military operations.
• Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif asserted opposition to his country's normalising relations with the Israeli regime after US President Donald Trump called on regional states to enter rapprochement deals with Tel Aviv.

US ‘begging’ for deal with Iran: IRGC Navy official -- The political deputy of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps Navy says the US is “begging” for an agreement with Iran, amid the impacts of its illegal aggression against the Islamic Republic on fuel prices and its allies in the region. Mohammad Akbarzadeh made the remarks in a nightly gathering at the Enqelab square in the city of Zanjan on Tuesday where participants reaffirmed their support for the Islamic establishment and Iran’s armed forces. Referring to the decline of American hegemony, Akbarzadeh said, "Regional countries and global powers have come to the realization that America is no longer able to provide security for its allies." He stressed that the US made a “miscalculation” when it thought that it could contain the power of the Islamic Republic through military attacks, sanctions, or inciting sedition. The IRGC official added that Iran's precise retaliatory attacks against the enemies’ targets have refuted previous Western claims that Iran was displaying "mock” missiles. He added that Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the US’ inability to respond has proved Iran's power, stressing, "They cannot do a damn thing." Stressing that the deterrence and readiness of the Iranian armed forces have become greater than before, Akbarzadeh said, "Based on my field visits to the southern coastlines and islands, I emphasize that the armed forces are fully ready and in the event of any possible attack, Iran's response will be much stronger than before." “Accordingly, America and the Zionist regime have left war as a last resort and have no choice,” he added. Referring to the changing balance in the current situation, Akbarzadeh said Iran has managed to “bring America to its knees in various fields and gain advantage from it.” Comparing Iran's power with other world powers such as China and Russia in the face of their challenges such as Taiwan and Ukraine, respectively, he said “Iran has been very successful in thwarting America's goals." Akbarzadeh warned US President Donald] Trump “any military action such as an amphibious operation will result in nothing but failure and disgrace for the United States." Elsewhere in his remarks, he noted that the Israeli regime is collapsing, according to the predictions of the martyred Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei. “The Islamic Republic has become the main obstacle to the realization of the Zionist regime's projects”, including Abraham accords and expanding Israel from the Nile to the Euphrates River. He also attributed the country’s victory to the Iranian nation’s steadfastness. The commander of the IRGC’s 31st Ashura Division Brigadier General Alireza Madani emphasized that "the readiness of the Iranian armed forces at the borders has stripped the enemy of the courage to attack and launch a ground attack." Madani also hailed the unity of the Iranian people and their participation in the nighty gatherings for more than 80 days as part of the country’s power. “Unity is the factor behind this power, and maintaining it will bring Iran ultimate victory,” he told reporters on Tuesday, noting that the recent and previous US-Israeli aggressions have revived the true unity of all people. Madani added that the readiness of the people and the Basij volunteer forces “have ensured that we are not short of manpower to protect the borders, and that the enemy does not dare invade.” He stressed that “well-equipped, fearless forces” at border areas are ready to sacrifice their lives for the country. The commander noted that Iran is now a superpower because it has stood firm against the US and another world power, and has now reached the stage of proving its superpower status to its enemies.

Trump Complains About Media Coverage of Iran War in Truth Social Post Identical to One Issued Eight Days Ago - President Trump on Tuesday issued a post on Truth Social complaining about US media coverage of his war against Iran that was a word-for-word repeat of a post he made eight days ago.  Recent reporting from mainstream US media outlets citing unnamed US officials has revealed that US intelligence believes Iran maintains about 70% of its pre-war missile inventory and that the Iranian military is reconstituting itself much more quickly than expected, painting a drastically different picture than what the Trump administration has been claiming publicly.Trump said in his post: “If Iran surrenders, admits their Navy is gone and resting at the bottom of the sea, and their Air Force is no longer with us, and if their entire Military walks out of Tehran, weapons dropped and hands held high, each shouting ‘I surrender, I surrender’ while wildly waving the representative White Flag, and if their entire remaining Leadership signs all necessary ‘Documents of Surrender,’ and admit their defeat to the great power and force of the magnificent U.S.A., The Failing New York Times, The China Street Journal (WSJ!), Corrupt and now Irrelevant CNN, and all other members of the Fake News Media, will headline that Iran had a Masterful and Brilliant Victory over The United States of America, it wasn’t even close.” He concluded that the “Dumacrats and Media have totally lost their way. They have gone absolutely CRAZY!!!” The president’s complaint comes as the full-scale US-Israeli bombing campaign against Iran could resume at any time, as the US launched strikes on southern Iran on Monday, and Israel is escalating its war in Lebanon. Pakistani-mediated negotiations between Washington and Tehran continue, and Trump appears frustrated that Iran hasn’t capitulated to US demands, though he has also complicated the negotiations by suggesting that an agreement should also include normalization between Israel and Muslim states, which is extremely unlikely.

IRGC claims it shot down MQ-9 reaper drone, fired at F-35 and intel drone over Iranian airspace -- The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed it downed an MQ9 Reaper drone after identifying that an hostile aircraft had entered Iran's airspace in the Gulf region on Tuesday.It also claimed to have fired at an F-35 fighter jet, forcing it to leave its airspace, as well as at an RQ4 intelligence collection drone.The IRGC added that it reserved the "legitimate and definite" right to retaliate against any ceasefire violations by the US, state media reported.Iran's claims come after the United States carried out "self-defense" strikes in southern Iran overnight against various targets, including boats attempting to lay mines and missile launch sites.“US forces conducted self-defense strikes in southern Iran today to protect our troops from threats posed by Iranian forces,” US Central Command (CENTCOM) spokesperson Capt. Tim Hawkins said.“US Central Command continues to defend our forces while using restraint during the ongoing ceasefire,” he added.

Trump threatens Oman in latest play to open the Strait of Hormuz - President Donald Trump rejected a plan that would see Oman and Iran jointly charge a toll for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, threatening harsh consequences for the U.S. ally if it follows through on discussions that have reportedly taken place with Tehran. “Oman will behave just like everybody else or we’ll have to blow them up,” he told reporters Wednesday at a White House Cabinet meeting. “They understand that. They’ll be fine.”  Opening up the strait, a critical transit lane for some 20 percent of the world’s oil, has emerged as a lodestar in negotiations to end the three-month U.S. war against Iran. The Middle East country effectively closed the waterway soon after it was first attacked by the U.S. and Israel in February. The strait has remained choked off, even after the president announced a ceasefire in April contingent on Iran fully reopening it. Global gas prices are on the rise as a result. And near-nonexistent transit through the strait has raised the specter of a worldwide food crisis on the horizon, the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization warned last week.  Oman, which has long enjoyed positive relations with Washington but is not a member of Trump’s Abraham Accords, has been a key interlocutor in behind-the-scenes negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program and more recently in the push to end the war between Tehran and Washington.But Trump on Wednesday reiterated his position that Iran would have no control over the waterway as part of a peace deal to end the war.“The strait’s gotta be open to everybody,” he said. “It’s international waters. Nobody’s going to control it. We’re going to watch over it. We’ll watch over it, but nobody’s going to control it. That’s part of the negotiation that we have.”The State Department amplified the president’s harsh rhetoric in a social media post at the conclusion of the Cabinet meeting.Bloomberg News first reported on the talks between Iranian and Omani officials. A spokesperson for the Omani Embassy in Washington could not immediately be reached for comment. A person who answered the main line at the embassy said it was closed for Eid.

Bessent Warns Oman On Hormuz Toll Scheme, After Trump Threatened To 'Blow Up' US Ally --On an official level at least, Oman remains a close strategic partner and key ally of the United States in the Middle East; however, that relationship has been severely strained this month amid apparent Iranian-Omani cooperation regarding a potential toll system for the Strait of Hormuz. This of course flies in the face of the US posture in the region.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is the latest top Trump admin official to chastize Oman: "The United States Government will not tolerate any effort to impose a tolling system in the Strait of Hormuz," he said on X Thursday. "Oman, in particular, should know that the U.S. Treasury will aggressively target any actors involved - directly or indirectly - in facilitating tolls for the Strait and any willing partners will be penalized," Bessent continued. "All nations should reject outright any efforts by Iran to disrupt the free flow of commerce. Tehran’s days of terrorizing the region and the world are over." Starting a week ago, official 'discussions' between Oman and Iran were widely reported: Iran and Oman have discussed setting up a toll system to charge vessels transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, despite President Trump’s condemnation of charging fees to pass through the waterway.“Iran and Oman must mobilize all their resources both to provide security services and to manage navigation in the most appropriate manner,” Iranian Ambassador to France Mohammad Amin-Nejad on Wednesday told Bloomberg News, which first reported the talks. Given the country's geography, in the southeastern Arabian Peninsula, it is likely to play a key role in any final agreement or outcome, in terms of opening Hormuz back up to international maritime transit.Bessent is continuing the pressure campaign soon on the heels of President Trump in somewhat shocking and surprise remarks saying that Oman could come under American military attack if it doesn't cooperate. Trump said in the Oval and in front of cameras that the US would "blow up" Oman if it doesn’t "behave". The serious threat was issued in response to a reporter's question on whether the US would accept a short-term deal that involved Iran and Oman jointly controlling the Strait of Hormuz."No, the strait’s got to be opened to everybody, it’s international waters. Nobody’s going to control it. We'll watch over it, but nobody’s going to control it. That’s part of the negotiation," Trump told reporters during a cabinet meeting. "Oman will behave just like everybody else, or we’ll have to blow them up. They understand that they’ll be fine," the president then emphasized.

US military conducts new strikes on Iran -- U.S. forces conducted new military strikes against Iran on Wednesday after Tehran launched drones at commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, according to U.S. officials, even as Washington and Tehran continue their efforts to forge a diplomatic settlement to the conflict and keep a fragile cease-fire intact.American forces shot down Iranian drones and hit a drone-control station near Bandar Abbas, a major port city in southern Iran located on the Strait of Hormuz, according to two of the officials. The site posed a threat to U.S. forces and commercial traffic in the strait, the officials said.Iran fired four, one-way attack drones at American and commercial ships earlier Wednesday, the two officials said. American F/A-18, F-16 and F-35 jet fighters shot down the drones, then the F/A-18s hit the ground-control unit before it could launch a fifth drone, one of the officials said. As with the U.S. strikes earlier in the week, administration officials characterized the attacks as limited and defensive in nature, not an escalation that would collapse the tenuous cease-fire the two sides mostly have been observing. There were no casualties during the incident, according to two of the officials.Still, the skirmishing underscored the challenges facing the White House’s negotiating efforts to secure a peace that brings down oil prices, curtails Tehran’s nuclear efforts and enables President Trump to claim that his military operations in the Middle East have achieved some of their key aims.Trump signaled during a cabinet meeting earlier Wednesday that he is still seeking to negotiate an agreement that opens the Strait of Hormuz for commerce and disposes of Iran’s cache of highly enriched uranium.Secretary of State Marco Rubio said during the cabinet meeting that the administration’s preference was still for a negotiated agreement with Iran. “Diplomacy is always the first option,” Rubio said.

US Launches Another Round of Airstrikes Against Iran -  A US official told Reuters on Wednesday that the US military launched another round of airstrikes in Iran, an attack that risks plunging the region back into full-scale war. Details of the attack are minimal, but an Iranian military source told Iran’s Tasnim news agency that the IRGC navy fired on a US tanker that “tried to pass through the Strait of Hormuz by turning off its radar system.” It said that the US then bombed an area around Bandar Abbas, an Iranian port city on the Strait of Hormuz that the US targeted with strikes on Monday. A US official speaking to Axios reporter Barak Ravid said that the US shot down four drones that targeted a US commercial ship, then bombed a drone launch site on the ground. The Tasnim report said the US strike on Bandar Abbas “did not cause any casualties or property damage.” A US official speaking to CBS News framed the latest US attack as “defensive” as the US is attempting to obscure the fact that all of its hostilities against Iran, which include enforcing a blockade on its ports, are part of the same war the US and Israel launched against Iran on February 28.Earlier in the day, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) vowed a major response to any further US attacks.“If the enemies once again resort to military action, the Islamic Republic’s method of confrontation will be different from what they have witnessed so far, and they will face a new face and image of Iran’s combat power on the battlefield,” said Ali Naderi, the deputy for public relations of the IRGC’s Aerospace Force.

Iran condemns repeated US truce violations, urges UN intervention - Iran has strongly condemned the United States’ repeated threats against the Islamic Republic and violations of the ceasefire that halted the recent illegal war of aggression, urging the UN to intervene. Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said the US military aggression against areas in the southern port city of Bandar Abbas on Thursday violate Iran's territorial integrity and national sovereignty in flagrant breach of international law and the UN Charter. “The UN Security Council is obligated to uphold its legal responsibility to hold American aggressors accountable,” he added. The spokesman also pointed to the US’s continued violations of the ceasefire with Iran, especially attacks on commercial shipping in the Persian Gulf region and high seas, as well as aerial assaults on the country’s southern regions over the past few days. He emphasized the Islamic Republic's determination to take all necessary measures to defend its national sovereignty and territorial integrity in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter. In response to the US aggression, the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) launched retaliatory attacks on a US base in the region. The IRGC warns the enemies that it will give decisive response to any act of aggression against the Islamic Republic. Meanwhile, Baghaei denounced the threatening rhetoric of American officials against Iran and some other regional countries, expressing solidarity with the friendly and brotherly country of Oman. On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump said he would “blow up” Oman if it agreed to work with Iran to share control of the Strait of Hormuz. “Threatening to ‘blow up’ a UN member state, which has always played a constructive, effective, and responsible role in regional peace and security, spent many years as a mediator in diplomatic processes, and made endeavors to serve regional peace and stability, not only violates the principle on the prohibition of threat or use of force, but is another dangerous sign of the normalization of lawlessness and bullying in international relations,” Baghaei said. Iran has restricted transit through the Strait of Hormuz since the early days of the unprovoked US-Israeli aggression on the country that began on February 28 and came to a halt as part of a Pakistan-brokered ceasefire on April 8.‌ However, coordinated passage through the strategic waterway is allowed for all ships except for those linked to the US and the Israeli regime and associated entities.

‘Stern warning’: IRGC announces retaliatory attack on US base following American aggression The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) warns the enemies that any act of aggression against the Islamic Republic will not go unanswered. In a statement on Thursday, the IRGC issued a “stern warning” to the enemies after US forces launched strikes against the southern Iranian port city of Bandar Abbas. Following the US military attack on a point on the outskirts of Bandar Abbas Airport with aerial projectiles, the IRGC carried out new strikes targeting the US air base from which the attack originated in the wee hours of Thursday, it added. “This response is a serious warning to the enemy that they should know the act of aggression will not go unanswered,” the IRGC emphasized. The elite military force warned of a “more decisive” response if the enemy repeated any act of aggression. It also said the responsibility for the consequences of any IRGC response lies with the aggressor. The statement comes after the IRGC Navy on Thursday forced an American tanker to turn back. The tanker was trying to illegally cross the Strait of Hormuz after it had switched off its tracking system, despite Iran's restrictions. "Following a swift and decisive response by the IRGC Navy, including warning fire directed towards the vessel, the tanker was forced to stop and retreat," Tasnim news agency reported. Iran shut down the strait to enemies and their allies following the launch on February 28 of the United States' and the Israeli regime's latest bout of unprovoked aggression targeting the Islamic Republic. It began exercising far stricter controls after US President Donald Trump announced an illegal blockade of Iranian vessels and ports in continuation of the aggression and in violation of the terms of a ceasefire the US president, himself, had declared earlier. The IRGC's Navy has pledged to enforce Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei's "historic" directive concerning the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. Kuwait air defenses activated Meanwhile, the Kuwaiti Armed Forces announced early Thursday that the country had activated its air defenses in response to what it called "hostile missile and drone threats." It did not say where the attacks originated from but added, "Any explosions that may be heard are the result of air defense systems intercepting hostile targets."

What Is the Latest Status of the Iran–U.S. Negotiations? – WANA  (May 28) – Published reports and news coverage suggest that, contrary to some media narratives, the United States has agreed to Iran’s proposed framework for continuing the negotiations, and the draft text under discussion has reportedly been structured according to that format. Current Iran–U.S. relations appear to be approaching a highly sensitive stage, with signs pointing toward the possibility of a temporary 60-day agreement centered on the managed reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, an extension of the ceasefire, and postponing discussions of the nuclear file to later stages. At the same time, ongoing political and military pressure from the United States, along with Donald Trump’s insistence on keeping the military option on the table, has created an atmosphere of “cautious optimism” mixed with “deep structural distrust” throughout the negotiation process. While Trump has described the talks as “constructive” and emphasized the need to expand the Abraham Accords in the region, Benjamin Netanyahu continues to insist on a complete halt to Iran’s nuclear activities and the removal of enriched materials from the country — an issue widely viewed as Tel Aviv’s red line in the negotiations. Within Iran itself, differing views over the negotiations are also evident. Some reformist factions, moving away from an approach based solely on trust, stress the importance of maintaining a balance of power and preserving domestic unity. Meanwhile, critics warn against repeating the experience of the JCPOA and creating another prolonged “no war, no peace” situation. At the same time, some media outlets opposed to the Islamic Republic have focused on the suspension of military attacks, arguing that the Trump administration has ignored the demands of protesters. On the regional and international level, recent developments are being interpreted by some analysts as a sign of Iran’s growing structural resilience and its ability to impose security-related costs on Arab states along the Persian Gulf. Global markets have also reacted positively to the possibility of an agreement, with oil prices falling and Asian stock markets rising. Under these circumstances, an important question arises: how long can the current fragile situation continue, and what could trigger a turning point? Answering this question requires a closer examination of the negotiations and the behavior of the various actors involved. Media narratives suggest that the United States and its allies are facing a kind of dual-track approach toward the Iran file — a situation that can be described as “simultaneous pressure and negotiation.” On one hand, Western media outlets continue to highlight the possibility of military action, cybersecurity and drone-related threats allegedly linked to Iran, and Trump’s focus on the Iran issue in an effort to maintain pressure. On the other hand, the dispatch of mediators from several regional countries to Tehran, along with reports from outlets such as the Financial Times, Reuters, and The Atlantic describing the military option as costly and ineffective, indicate that Washington is still searching for a political path to manage the crisis. Some analysts interpret this approach as an attempt by the United States to preserve its political and media standing before both domestic public opinion and regional allies, while at the same time gradually stepping back from some of its earlier maximalist positions. In this context, Western media coverage appears to focus on three primary themes:

1. Portraying Iran as responsible for deadlock in the negotiations in order to justify diplomatic failure.
2. Amplifying security-related threats associated with Iran — including cyber and drone allegations — with the aim of increasing political and security pressure.
3. Highlighting internal and regional divisions, as well as emphasizing the role of groups aligned with Iran across the region.

Nevertheless, some analyses suggest that Netanyahu’s reduced direct influence over the negotiation process, combined with regional concerns about the consolidation of Iran’s deterrence capabilities, may indicate a shift in the current balance of power.

Report: Israel Pressing the US To Assassinate Iran's Lead Negotiator -  Israel is pressing the US to restart heavy airstrikes on Iran that would involve the targeted killing of Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, one of Tehran’s lead negotiators, and attacks on the country’s oil infrastructure, Capital & Empire reported on Thursday.  The report, which cited US sources familiar with a classified report circulating within the US intelligence community, said Israel is aggressively pushing for the US to abandon talks with Iran and insisting that destroying oil infrastructure in the country could bring about regime change while also downplaying the impact the renewed full-scale war will have on the global economy. The New York Times previously reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had pitched President Trump on launching the war back in early February by making a series of predictions that proved to be wrong, including the idea that Iran was ripe for regime change, that its ballistic missile program could be destroyed within weeks, and that it would be too weak to close the Strait of Hormuz.Israeli officials have been clear that they want to restart the US-Israeli bombing campaign and have threatened to kill Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, who replaced his father, Ali Khamenei, after he was killed by an Israeli strike on February 28, the first day of the war.The Capital & Empire report said that Israel has made the case to kill Ghalibaf directly to the US Department of War, and has focused on him since Khamenei’s whereabouts are unknown. The US intelligence report also determined that Israel wouldn’t target Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Israel has a history of targeting officials involved in negotiations. In September 2025, Israel attempted to kill Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya in Qatar as he was involved in negotiations on a Gaza ceasefire deal. The attack killed al-Hayya’s son, and an Israeli airstrike in Gaza recently killed another son of al-Hayya as he was involved in talks with the US-led so-called “Board of Peace.”

Iran rejects Trump's terms of deal to lift Hormuz blockade | Middle East Eye - US President Donald Trump said he was lifting a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, even as Iran denied his claim that negotiations were taking place on the fate of its nuclear programme, a resolution to which Trump conditioned lifting the naval siege. Trump’s murky statement on Friday is one of several he has made in recent days suggesting a deal to end the war is at hand, only for the stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz to continue as a fragile ceasefire between the two sides prevents a wider flare-up in fighting. Trump conditioned the lifting of the US’s blockade on Iran agreeing not to charge fees in the Strait of Hormuz and allowing the US access to damaged nuclear facilities in order to destroy Iran’s highly enriched uranium. The US bombed three Iranian facilities in June 2025. “The enriched material, sometimes referred to as “Nuclear Dust,” which is buried deep underground with virtually collapsed mountains…will be unearthed by the United States…in close coordination and conjunction with the Islamic Republic of Iran, plus the International Atomic Energy Agency, and DESTROYED,” Trump wrote on his Truthsocial platform on Friday. As a result, Trump said that “Ships caught in the Strait due to our amazing and unprecedented Naval Blockade, which will now be lifted, may start the process of “heading home!” But Iran said on Friday that “no negotiations" were taking place over its nuclear programme, and a deal had not been finalised. "Regarding the understanding, as I said while speaking to you, exchanges of messages are continuing, but no final agreement has been reached yet," Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei told state media. 'Mixture of truth and lies' Iran's Fars news agency, which is close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said Trump's latest comments were a "mixture of truth and lies”. It said Trump’s remarks that the deal included the extraction and destruction of Iran’s highly enriched uranium were “fundamentally baseless". The global energy markets have, so far, responded to Trump's optimistic posts. Trump said that he was going to the White House situation room “to make a final determination” on extending the ceasefire based on the points he laid out. Brent Crude, the international benchmark, fell 1.5 percent on Friday. It is down about 15 percent since the start of the month on expectations that Iran and the US will expand their ceasefire, allowing vessels and energy to flow through the Strait of Hormuz again. But the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed on both sides. Iranian vessels and those loaded with Iranian oil are not able to transit the waterway because of the US’s blockade. But the other 2,000 ships stuck in the Gulf are not transiting because of Iran’s own stranglehold over Hormuz. The Islamic Republic has allowed some vessels to transit if they pay a toll or negotiate directly with Tehran. Trump’s social media post rejected this system. “The Hormuz Strait must be immediately open, no tolls, for unrestricted shipping traffic, in both directions,” Trump added, calling on Iran to remove any mines in the Strait of Hormuz. "Trump claimed that Iran was obligated to open the Strait of Hormuz without tolls, even though no such clause appears in the text of the agreement," Fars said. Iran wants sanctions relief and the unfreezing of billions of dollars in funds held abroad as part of any ceasefire extension. Such an agreement, according to reports and analysts, would only be a stepping stone for deeper talks. Trump ruled out the unlocking of frozen funds in a social media post, saying, “No money will be exchanged, until further notice”. It’s unclear whether that language applies only to frozen funds or to waivers allowing Iran to sell its oil on the global market without sanctions.

Qalibaf: We Extract Concessions with Missiles, Not Negotiations  - Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, the head of the Islamic Republic's negotiating team, wrote on the X platform on Friday, May 29: "We extract concessions with missiles, not with dialogue; in negotiations, we merely communicate them." This comment comes at a time when reports of progress toward reaching a meaningful agreement between the U.S. and Israel had been published in recent days, though it is said that this temporary memorandum of understanding is still awaiting approval from the U.S. President and officials of the Islamic Republic. Media outlets close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) state that the reports regarding an agreement between Tehran and Washington are incorrect. In this regard, the Tasnim News Agency, quoting an "informed source," wrote: "The text of the agreement has not reached a conclusion as of this moment." In his latest post on X, Qalibaf wrote that the Islamic Republic has "absolutely no trust in guarantees and words" and only considers actions as the benchmark. The Speaker of the Islamic Consultative Assembly (Parliament) also emphasized that no action will be taken before action by the opposing side, adding that "the winner of any agreement is the one who is better prepared for war the very next day."

Trump ends Iran meeting without making ‘final determination’ on deal - President Donald Trump ended a meeting in the White House Situation Room without announcing his final decision on whether to approve a deal to pause the three-month-old Iran war, an administration official told CNBC on Friday afternoon. Trump earlier Friday said on Truth Social that he would be making his “final determination” during that meeting, after listing everything that Iran must do for him to approve a deal.It was not immediately clear from Trump’s post which of his make-or-break conditions are already part of a preliminary agreement that U.S. and Iranian negotiators are working on to pause the war.. Iran “must agree” to never have a nuclear weapon, and the Strait of Hormuz must be “immediately open” to unrestricted shipping traffic, with no tolls being imposed, Trump demanded in the Friday morning post. He also said the retaliatory U.S. naval blockade against Iran in the Gulf of Oman “will now be lifted,” though it was unclear if he meant that step would only be taken if the prior conditions were met. Trump also stated that enriched material buried at the site of last year’s attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities will be “unearthed” by the U.S. “in close coordination and conjunction with the Islamic Republic of Iran, plus the International Atomic Energy Agency, and DESTROYED.” “No money will be exchanged, until further notice,” Trump added. “Other items, of far less importance, have been agreed to.” “I will be meeting now, in the Situation Room, to make a final determination,” he said. Oil prices fell following Trump’s post. The exact terms of the deal being discussed are unclear. Mohsen Rezaee, an advisor to Iran’s supreme leader, said in a post on X that Trump is “betraying diplomacy”. “By continuing the naval blockade and making excessive demands in negotiations, he has once again proven that he is not inclined toward negotiation and is pursuing other objectives,” Rezaee said. Iranian state news outlet Fars after Trump’s post on Friday pushed back on the president’s assertion, saying it “raised issues that contradict the provisions of the agreement’s text.” Despite Trump’s reference to a toll-free strait, there is “no such clause in the text of the agreement,” Fars reported in a translated Telegram post, citing “informed sources.” The draft deal in discussion also contains no reference to Iran dismantling or destroying its nuclear materials, according to the Fars post. Fars also asserted that “the most important part of the agreement” is “the immediate payment of $12 billion of Iran’s frozen assets.” Iran will refuse any further negotiations unless that payment is made, per Fars. The White House did not respond to CNBC’s questions about Trump’s post and the Fars rebuttal. A White House official on Thursday confirmed an Axios report that the U.S. and Iranian negotiating teams had reached a 60-day memorandum of understanding that would extend the ongoing ceasefire and set up nuclear talks. That memorandum would also lift restrictions in the strait and specify that Iran must remove all mines from the waterway within 30 days, while the U.S. would lift its blockade accordingly. Addressing Iran’s highly enriched uranium and enrichment goals will be top priorities during the 60-day window, according to the Axios report. The draft would also tee up negotiations on sanctions relief and the release of frozen Iranian funds. Trump’s latest signal of progress toward a U.S.-Iran peace deal contrasts with recent economic and military clashes between the countries, as well as continued anti-U.S. posturing from Iranian officials and state media. The Pentagon said Thursday morning that Iran had launched a ballistic missile toward Kuwait and deployed attack drones in and around the strait. Iranian media reported late Thursday local time that the country’s armed forces fired missiles at unidentified targets. The U.S. Treasury on Wednesday and Thursday announced new sanctions against Iran, including a batch targeting Tehran’s new effort to exert control over transit through the strait. Iranian officials, in X posts published prior to Trump’s statement Friday morning, appeared defiant toward the U.S., touting their ties with their Middle East neighbors including Oman, a recent target of Trump’s threats. Oman has reportedly been in talks with Iran about charging vessels transiting the Hormuz Strait, the vital global oil-shipping route that has been largely blocked by Iranian threats since the war began. Trump, at a Cabinet meeting Wednesday, said that “Oman will behave just like everybody else, or we’ll have to blow ’em up.” On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned Oman that the U.S. will “aggressively target” anyone involved in “facilitating tolls” for the strait. A social media account attributed to Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, in a translated X post Friday morning, offered a cryptic but aggressive readout of the status of the talks. “We seize concessions not through dialogue, but with missiles; in negotiations, we merely make them understand,” Ghalibaf’s account wrote. “We have no trust in guarantees or words—only actions are the measure. No action will be taken before the other side acts,” the post said. “The winner of any agreement is the one who is better prepared for war from the day after.” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted that he spoke with his Omani counterpart and “expressed Iran’s solidarity with Oman in face of any threat.” Read Trump’s full post:

Huckabee Tells Lebanese To Thank Israel For Seedless Watermelons, While Under IDF Bombs --Mike Huckabee, the US ambassador to Israel and a passionate advocate of its wars in the region, has told the people of Lebanon to be grateful for Israeli contributions to its society. Video of Huckabee speaking at the Atlas Awards in Tel Aviv on May 12 has only recently emerged and is being shared online after it was picked up by Chris Menahan of the news site Information Liberation. In the speech, Huckabee extolls the various purported Israeli contributions to society, including USB drives, cherry tomatoes and seedless watermelons. "I wonder if everyone in Lebanon understands that if there were no Israel, they wouldn't have a cell phone," Huckabee said. "I wonder if they understand that every time they use a USB, every time they use car navigation, that every time they eat a cherry tomato or have a delicious bite of seedless watermelon, instead of saying, 'I can't talk to those people,' they should step across the border, shake their hands and say, 'Thank you'." Lebanon's southern border is currently subject to intense bombardment, and scores of displaced residents who have attempted to return to their homes in the south have been targeted by Israel Lebanon's Health Ministry says Israeli air strikes have killed 3,151 people and wounded 9,571 since March 2. The dead include 123 medics, at least 210 children and nearly 300 women. Huckabee is an outspoken and unapologetic Christian Zionist who has frequently expressed strong backing for Israeli government policies. In an interview with US podcast host Tucker Carlson, Huckabee supported Israel's right to take over all of the Middle East to form "Greater Israel", and said the Book of Genesis in the Old Testament gives the modern-day state of Israel the right to expand its borders.

US Backs Israel's Escalation in Lebanon - --Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on Monday that he ordered the Israeli military to intensify its attacks on Lebanon, which came as US officials speaking to media outlets made clear Washington would support an Israeli escalation despite Iran maintaining that a real ceasefire in Lebanon is required for any deal with the US.“I have ordered an even greater acceleration of our operations,” Netanyahu said in a video statement. “It is true that they are attacking us with drones, including fiber-optic drones, but we have teams working on countermeasures, and we will solve this issue … We will intensify our blows, increase our firepower, and we will crush them.”Also on Monday, a US official speaking to Axios reporter Barak Ravid accused Hezbollah of violating the Lebanon ceasefire that was announced last month, but Israel never followed the truce as it continued its occupation and destruction of southern Lebanon.“Hezbollah has ignored repeated requests to stop firing at Israel, including a recent ultimatum. Israel will never be expected to passively absorb attacks on its forces and civilians. This is not the Biden administration,” the official said, though during the Biden administration, Israel also repeatedly struck Lebanon under a Lebanon ceasefire deal that was signed in November 2024.Israel violated the November 2024 ceasefire with regular attacks that killed hundreds of Lebanese, and Hezbollah didn’t fire back until March 2nd of this year, an attack the group said was a response to the US-Israeli killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Israel then escalated its invasion and attacks in Lebanon and has killed at least 3,185 in the country since March 2. After a Lebanon ceasefire was announced last month, President Trump declared that Israel was “prohibited” from further strikes in the country, but the Israeli attacks continued. A major difference between Israel’s violations of the recent ceasefire and the November 2024 deal is the fact that Hezbollah is firing back at Israeli forces and has been successfully hitting Israeli troops with fiber-optic drones.After Netanyahu’s announcement on Monday, Israel did appear to increase its attacks on Lebanon, and at least seven people were killed by the attacks in the south. The Iranian Foreign Ministry also reaffirmed that ending hostilities in Lebanon was part of its conditions for a deal with the US.

Trump's Board of Peace Fund Empty, Raising Questions Over Endgame In Gaza - When the United Nations Security Council (”UNSC”) officially approved of the 20-point peace plan constructed by the Trump administration and agreed upon by the State of Israel and Hamas on November 17th, 2025, the world looked at the development with cautious optimism that a lasting peace in the Middle East had finally been brokered. However, that optimism was largely drowned out by skepticism from critics and policy analysts alike who took issue with the parameters of the peace plan and the vision it had for a post-war Gaza Strip. Chief among those parameters that raised red flags was the establishment of the Board of Peace, which would be tasked with oversight of the ceasefire, efforts to rebuild the Gaza Strip, and the establishment of a technocratic council assigned to govern the territory in the aftermath of the war. Since its establishment, the Board of Peace has been met with criticism over its governance model, doubts over its ability to raise the funds needed to carry out its mission, and its ulterior political motives. While Trump administration and Israeli government officials have disavowed those criticisms, a report alleging the drastic shortfall of the Board of Peace’s funding gives credence to the doubt it has been mired within since its inception. According to four separate sources with familiarity of the Trump Board of Peace’s finances who spoke to The Financial Times, the fund established by the board through the World Bank has had zero dollars deposited into it despite receiving $17 billion in pledges from partners ranging from the United States and the European Union (”EU”) to several Arab states. Instead of operating through the World Bank-administered fund approved by the UNSC, the Board of Peace has been accepting deposits directly through an account it established with American multinational banking institution JPMorgan Chase & Co. That delivery mechanism for funds paid to the Board of Peace amplifies the concerns raised over its transparency. Unlike the World Bank fund established by the UNSC when it agreed to the Trump administration’s Gaza peace plan, the board’s account with JPMorgan is not subject to any oversight or reporting on its finances. That lack of transparency raises further questions over not just the board’s financial outlook but also about how the funds that have been delivered to it are being used.An official with the Board of Peace spoke to The Financial Times in an effort to ensure that the board was funded in line with expectations. The official conveyed that the board’s World Bank fund was just one of several mechanisms created to accept contributions from member states involved in financing the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip. They indicated that the reasons behind the World Bank fund’s coffers being empty were because “contributors have opted to use other options,” alluding to the board’s account with JPMorgan. Addressing the issue of transparency, the official stated that the Board of Peace will report its finances to its own executive board. That executive board chaired by President Donald J. Trump includes U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio; U.S. Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff; Trump’s son-in-law and senior advisor Jared Kushner; former U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair; CEO of Apollo Global Management Marc Rowan; President of the World Bank Ajay Banga; U.S. Deputy National Security Advisor Robert Gabriel; and Bulgarian former United Nations Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process Nikolay Mladenov, who was named the director general of the Board of Peace. Despite assurances made by officials that the Board of Peace will report its finances to the executive board, they offered no definitive timeline on issuing those findings. Instead, the official who spoke with The Financial Times indicated that the financial reports will be provided “at a time deemed appropriate” that has yet to be formally announced.Concerns over the funding shortfall follow estimates that $70 billion will be needed for the Gaza reconstruction effort over the next decade to rebuild the 85 percent of buildings and infrastructure in the region destroyed by the Israel Defense Forces (“IDF”), a figure that far exceeds the $17 billion in pledges made to the Board of Peace. Despite its best attempts to assuage those concerns, the Board of Peace acknowledged the liquidity crisis it faces in a report it submitted to the UNSC on May 15th, 2026. “The Board of Peace underscores that the gap between commitment and disbursement must be closed with urgency. Funds committed but not yet disbursed represent the difference between a framework that exists on paper and one that delivers on the ground for the people of Gaza,” the report stated. The report issued to the UNSC contravened statements made by the board in April, in which it stated that “all funding requests have been met immediately and in full” in the face of mounting criticism including accusations that it had only received a tiny fraction of the $17 million in pledges made to it.

US Holds Military Drill in Venezuela's Capital - - The US military on Saturday conducted a drill in the Venezuelan capital of Caracas, marking the first known US military exercise in the country since the January 3 attack to abduct Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.The drill involved two US Marine Corps Osprey aircraft landing near the US Embassy in Caracas, which the US officially reopened in March. The Venezuelan government, led by Acting President Delcy Rodriguez, Maduro’s vice president, said that it approved the exercise and that the US conducted it to prepare for “medical emergencies or catastrophic emergencies.”The US Embassy said that Gen. Francis L. Donovan, the head of US Southern Command, was brought to the city on board one of the Ospreys, marking his second visit to Venezuela since the US attack, which killed at least 83 people, including Venezuelan military personnel, Cuban presidential guards, and four civilians.   “[Donovan] participated in bilateral talks with high-ranking representatives of the interim government, met with the leadership and staff of the United States Embassy, and observed the joint force conducting a military response exercise,” the US Embassy said in a post on X.  The US military drill in Venezuela comes as the US appears to be moving toward launching a war against Cuba, which has been deprived of Venezuelan and Mexican oil as part of a ramped-up US oil embargo, causing a devastating humanitarian crisis. CIA Director John Ratcliffe recently visited Cuba and reportedly brought along a paramilitary leader who was introduced to the Cuban officials as the one who killed their people in Venezuela.

US has the troops in place to attack Cuba - The Pentagon has spent months positioning the troops and weapons needed for the U.S. to launch a military attack on Cuba — all it needs is a final go-ahead from Donald Trump. The president has floated an invasion of the island after economic and political pressure failed to topple the Communist government. But the Navy’s built-up presence in the region — the largest in the world outside the Middle East — would allow the U.S. to act immediately. These strategically placed assets set the table for military action, from a capture of Havana’s leadership much like the seizure of former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, to a series of precision strikes. And they open the possibility that the U.S. throws itself into the third international conflict of the Trump administration. Cuba is “in a lot of trouble,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Wednesday at a full Cabinet meeting. “Having a failed state 90 miles from our shores is a threat to the national security of the United States.” The armada in the region is slightly smaller than it was in January when the U.S. captured Maduro. But the USS Nimitz aircraft carrier strike group entered the Caribbean in May, along with several guided missile destroyers and cruisers that can launch precision missiles at targets onshore. An array of advanced American drones and surveillance aircraft have also circled Cuba for months, according to flight tracking sites. The USS Kearsarge amphibious ships and escorts, which carry 2,500 Marines, are off the coast of Virginia preparing for a new deployment, and could replace some ships heading home. The surge provides a variety of military options, although the Pentagon would need additional troops for a massive ground invasion. The Nimitz arrived in the region on the same day as the U.S. indicted former president Raul Castro, in what appeared a public show of force. “The Nimitz is likely there primarily for intimidation, though it could be used in a military operation if needed,” said Mark Cancian, a former Pentagon official and now a senior analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The ship, along with fighter planes based in Florida and Puerto Rico, would probably play a role in any military action in Cuba, he said. “Air strikes are possible to take out their air defenses to allow broader air operations or, perhaps, destroy their leadership with the idea of establishing a relationship as we have with Venezuela. Raul Castro would be their first target.” But the administration faces a timeline to act. Many of the biggest warships deployed in the summer are approaching 10 months at sea, far beyond the usual six to seven months. This has caused defense officials to worry about overextending crews, and adds to the stress on a naval force that is also conducting a blockade of Iranian ships in the Arabian Gulf. The Navy declined to comment on current deployments. Naval Forces Southern Command and the White House did not respond to a request for comment. “These back-to-back long deployments will add up over time,” said a defense official, granted anonymity to speak candidly about military operations. “Keeping them out there so long creates more problems in the long run when it comes to refitting and repairing those ships once they come home.”

Guatemala Agrees To Allow US Airstrikes on Its Territory as US Escalates Military Interventions in Latin America -   Guatemala has agreed to carry out joint strikes with the US military on its territory to target drug trafficking groups, The New York Times reported on Thursday, as the Trump administration continues escalating its military interventions across Latin America.The report said that Guatemalan President Bernardo Arevalo held a call with US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth last week and agreed to allow both airstrikes and other military action, and joint military operations could begin next month.Guatemala has become the second country in the region to allow the US military to take part in its war on drugs, after Ecuador, where US military personnel are advising and assisting Ecuadorian troops. The Times previously reported that one of the first operations involved bombing what the US and Ecuador claimed was a drug camp, but turned out to be a dairy farm.The Trump administration has merged the war on drugs with the war on terror, first by bombing alleged drug-running boats in the Caribbean Sea and labeling the people it is executing as “narco-terrorists.” Since starting the bombing campaign in September 2025, the US has expanded it to the Eastern Pacific Ocean and has killed nearly 200 people, all civilians, without ever providing evidence to back up its claims about what the small boats are carrying.The boat strikes began in the lead-up to the US attack on Venezuela to abduct Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, and now the US military is poised to launch a similar attack on Cuba, though the Trump administration has made clear it seeks to topple the entire Cuban government.The Trump administration has also pressed the government of Mexico to allow the US military to operate against cartels inside Mexico, but so far, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has resisted. CNN recently published a report that alleged the CIA has been involved in conducting assassinations against cartel officials, which both the US and Mexican governments have denied.

Acting Navy Secretary Hung Cao undercuts Trump and Pete Hegseth on Taiwan, Iran - - Acting Navy Secretary Hung Cao’s insistence this week that the Pentagon had paused a $14 billion arms sale to Taiwan over a munitions review has undercut the Trump administration’s narrative on both Iran and Taipei. Cao on Thursday told Senate appropriators that while the U.S. has “plenty” of missiles and interceptors, the Trump administration is holding off on some foreign military sales to “make sure we have the munitions we need for Epic Fury,” referring to the official name for President Trump’s war with Iran. Cao’s remarks — which contradict Trump’s claims that he may hold off on the arms sale to Taiwan as a “negotiating chip” with China — also discounts the administration’s narrative that munitions stockpiles are no cause for worry. But the coinciding issues may prove to be a benefit for Trump as he looks to rebuild America’s stockpiles while also seeking diplomatic gains with Beijing. “On one hand, Trump wants to keep U.S.-China relations on a constructive path, at least until [Chinese President] Xi Jinping visits Washington in September, and on the other hand, there is a munition problem. So if you can delay the sale and/or delay delivery of the order and sort of help both of these issues at the same time, it makes sense,” said Evan Sankey, an analyst at the Cato Institute focusing on U.S. foreign policy toward China and East Asia. “It is both things … and if that munitions problem dovetails with President Trump’s diplomatic preferences regarding China, that’s kind of like a happy coincidence,” he told The Hill. Trump last week traveled to China to meet with Xi, taking care during the trip to publicly steer clear of any mention of Taiwan — which Beijing sees as part of its territory. China has threatened to bring Taipei under its control by force if necessary — increasing its military drills around the island — and has discouraged Washington from selling it weapons. Case in point, when the administration in December approved a separate $11 billion arms sale to Taiwan — one of the largest such packages ever — China vehemently opposed it, claiming it would “accelerate the push towards a dangerous and violent situation across the Taiwan Strait.” That weapons package has not yet been advanced. Though the U.S. maintains formal diplomatic ties with China and doesn’t recognize Taiwan as a country, Washington provides the island with weapons to help it maintain its self-defense. Following his Beijing visit, Trump told reporters that the arms sale was discussed with Xi “in great detail,” even though in 1982 the U.S. pledged to Taiwan it would not consult Beijing on arms sales to the island. He said he hadn’t yet approved the $14 billion deal with Taipei as, “we’re going to see what happens. I may do it; I may not do it.” He also told Fox News that arms sales to Taiwan are “a very good negotiating chip” in Washington’s handlings of Beijing. The comments quickly riled defense hawks in Congress, with Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) asking Cao about the arms pause on Thursday, calling the delay “distressing.”

Taiwan 'Cautiously Optimistic' That Trump Will Advance $14 Billion Arms Package - Taiwanese Defense Minister Wellington Koo Li-hsiung said on Monday that he’s “cautiously optimistic” that the US will advance a $14 billion arms package for Taiwan after the US Navy secretary said it was on hold due to the war with Iran.Acting Navy Secretary Hung Cao told Congress last week that the US was “doing a pause” on the massive weapons package to “make sure we have the munitions we need for Epic Fury,” the code name for the US-Israeli war against Iran.Cao’s comments appeared to contradict President Trump, who suggested the arms package could be used as a “negotiating chip” with China. During his recent visit to Beijing, Chinese President Xi Jinping issued a stern warning regarding Taiwan, telling the US president that if the issue isn’t handled properly, it could lead to “clashes and conflicts” between the two superpowers.In December, the Trump administration advanced an $11 billion weapons package for Taiwan, more than was approved for the island during the entire Biden administration. In response, China launched major military drills around Taiwan that simulated a blockade, and Beijing is expected to do something similar if the $14 billion package moves forward.Koo told reporters he was optimistic that the US would approve the arms sale because Taiwan had received “no notification” that its policy had changed. Cao also said that the US hadn’t discussed the issue with Taiwan. “From the Defense Ministry’s standpoint, we continue to maintain communication with the US War Department,” Koo said, according to The South China Morning Post. “The reason we remain cautiously optimistic is because we believe that under unchanged US policy towards Taiwan, the core interest involved here is peace in the Taiwan Strait, and peace in the Taiwan Strait is a core interest of the United States.”Taiwan recently approved a $25 billion increase in military spending, intended exclusively for purchasing US weapons, though a US official said the Trump administration was “disappointed” that the amount wasn’t higher.

U.S. support for Taiwan reaffirmed by members of Congress - The U.S. Congress continues to have strong support for Taiwan even as it remains a focal point in relations with China, according to members of a delegation at the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore.“There’s really strong bipartisan support for Taiwan and Taiwan security, and making sure we build on so much of the progress that has been made” regarding the island’s ability to defend itself, Senator Tammy Duckworth, D-Ill, said in a media roundtable at the Dialogue.Taiwan, which asserts the right to self-government but is also claimed by China, has been in focus given remarks made over time by U.S. President Donald Trump. Trump has referred to $14 billion in arms sales to the island, which has been approved by Congress, as a “negotiating chip” with China.“Our commitment to Taiwan – it’s not changing,” said Representative Pat Harrigan, R-N.C., in another media roundtable at the Dialogue. “If you look at the work we have done with Taiwan, there can be no assertion that the United States has not been there” for the island.Secretary of War Pete Hegseth didn’t mention Taiwan in his earlier remarks at the Dialogue. However, Representative Michael Baumgartner, R-W.A., downplayed the significance of the omission.Hegseth “mentioned the status quo with emphasis,” Baumgartner said. “That includes Taiwan in my view.”Weapons sales to Taiwan were approved by Congress “in a bipartisan manner,” noted Representative Greg Meeks, D-N.Y.. “We’re focused on Taiwan and its security,” and “we’re willing to give them what they need to defend themselves.”

Russia Tells US It Will Start 'Systematic Strikes' on 'Military Sites and Decision-Making Centers' in Kyiv - Russian media reported on Monday that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov spoke with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and informed him that Russia will begin “systematic strikes” against the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv that will target “military sites and decision-making centers.” According to Russia’s TASS news agency, Lavrov said the attacks were a response to “continued attacks against civilian population and infrastructure in Russia.” The Russian Foreign Ministry also issued a warning and said the attacks were a response to the May 22 Ukrainian drone attack that hit a college in Starobelsk in the Luhansk Oblast, killing 21 people.The ministry said the attack was the “last straw” and that the attacks on Kyiv would target the “Ukrainian military-industrial complex,” including facilities where drones are made that are used by the Ukrainian military “with the assistance of NATO specialists responsible for supplying components, providing intelligence.”Media reports have previously revealed that Ukraine relies on intelligence from the US and NATO to launch its long-range drone attacks inside Russia, meaning the attacks always risk an escalation between Russia and NATO countries.The Russian Foreign Ministry also said it was warning “foreign citizens, including diplomatic mission and international organization representative office personnel, of the need to leave the city as soon as possible. We also warn Ukrainian capital residents not to approach Zelensky’s regime’s military and administrative infrastructure facilities.”Russia already launched a major drone and missile attack on the Ukrainian capital and its surrounding regions on Sunday, which killed at least four people, according to Ukrainian officials. The Russian Defense Ministry said the barrage involved strikes using Russia’s advanced missiles, including the new Oreshnik hypersonic missile.The escalation of the more than four-year-old war comes as there’s no sign of progress in negotiations to end the conflict, as the Russian and Ukrainian sides remain far apart on demands to end the conflict. One of Russia’s main demands is that Ukraine cede what territory it still controls in the Donbas, something Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky refuses to do.

US Says Kyiv Embassy Remains Open as Russia Warns Major Attack Could Start at Any Time - The US said on Thursday that its embassy in Kyiv remains open despite claims to the contrary and Russia’s threats to launch a major attack on the Ukrainian capital city targeting military targets and “decision-making centers.”Earlier this week, Russia issued a warning to the US and its European allies to evacuate their personnel from Kyiv as Moscow prepares major strikes it says are a response to Ukrainian drone attacks killing civilians in Russia and Russian-controlled territories, calling a Ukrainian drone attack that hit a college in Luhansk and killed 21 civilians the “last straw.”Kaja Kallas, the EU’s foreign policy chief, claimed on Thursday that all Western diplomatic personnel had remained in the city except for the Americans, but that was denied by the US. “The US Embassy is open. There are no changes to our operations and reports otherwise are false,” the US Embassy in Kyiv said in a statement.  Also on Thursday, Sergey Shoigu, the head of Russia’s Security Council, said the Russian attacks could happen at any time. “It can happen at any moment. And whenever we deem a response must be as powerful as we have repeatedly warned, we will retaliate for the terrorist attack that killed our very young people,” he said.Amid the looming threat of a major Russian escalation, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky sent a letter to President Trump requesting additional air defense support. The US has continued to fuel the conflict by sending weapons into Ukraine, shipments that are now mostly funded by the US’s NATO allies.A senior Russian member of parliament said this week that Russia’s strikes on Kyiv would target underground bunkers used by the Ukrainian military and its leadership. Writing in Responsible Statecraft, Anatol Lieven, director of the Eurasia Program at the Quincy Institute, said that US and NATO military officers assisting Ukraine with its attacks on Russia are based in the underground military headquarters in Kyiv, which he expects to be targeted by Russia’s Oreshnik hypersonic missile.

NATO 3.0: Report Details 'Fundamental Restructuring' Of US Commitments The US is moving forward with a "fundamental restructuring" of its commitments to European security, transitioning from the traditional "burden sharing" strategy to that of "burden shifting," according to a Der Spiegel report published on May 26. Under the new vision dubbed "NATO 3.0," Washington expects European allies to assume responsibility for the continent’s entire conventional defense. In this new framework, the US will primarily provide a nuclear deterrent rather than the broad military support it has historically guaranteed. This transition, which the report notes has blindsided European officials, involves drastic reductions in US military assets previously committed to the "NATO Force Model." Alexander Velez-Green, an envoy to US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, recently informed allies that Washington intends to cut its contribution of fighter jets by one-third and significantly reduce the number of strategic bombers, navy destroyers, and aerial refueling aircraft. The report notes that the US plans to stop providing submarines to the NATO pool entirely and expects Europeans to supply their own reconnaissance and armed drones. The primary driver for this withdrawal is the US military’s pivot toward the Asia-Pacific, though officials also cited the need for flexibility to commit assets to military campaigns in West Asia and the Western Hemisphere. Washington reportedly seeks to prepare for a potential "two-front conflict," noting that US intelligence identifies 2027 as the "key date" when China may be capable of launching an offensive against Taiwan. Given the possibility, the US no longer wishes to have its key assets “tied up” by fixed NATO commitments. The report highlights an intensely fast-paced transition, with the US demanding that European allies present specific offers to fill these newly created military gaps by early June, aiming to formalize the new model at the July summit in Ankara. While NATO leadership officially portrays the move as a way to reduce “over-dependence” on the US, European diplomats find the requirements far more severe than anticipated, with European leaders reportedly stunned by the scale and speed of the requirements. In secret meetings, some representatives even interpreted the US insistence on rapid compliance as an "indirect threat" toward those who fail to act quickly. In line with the new “burden shifting,” US President Donald Trump announced on May 22 that he would send an additional 5,000 troops to Poland – a move reportedly driven by his personal relationship with and endorsement of Polish President Karol Nawrocki.

Nation forced to act after Trump, 79, confuses them for target - Iceland is moving closer toward joining the European Union after Donald Trump confused it with another country that the president had threatened to take over. Iceland is not part of the European bloc of 27 member states, but the country with a population of just over 400,000 will hold a referendum in August on whether to resume negotiations to join the EU. As noted by The New York Times, Iceland’s usually fiercely independent residents have become more open to the idea of joining the EU, in part due to the 79-year-old president’s threats against its neighbor Greenland, and concerns over how Trump mixed up the two North Atlantic island nations. Icelandic Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir told the Times in February that the diplomatic crisis caused by Trump threatening to take over Greenland—by military force if necessary—“hit a nerve” among referendum voters. “Things have definitely shifted,” she said in a follow-up interview published Tuesday.There is no real concern that Trump would actually confuse Iceland and Greenland to the point of ordering an attack on Iceland, but the potential defense assurances that come with joining the EU are now seen as a big bonus.Iceland is the only NATO country without its own military, and some Icelanders feel it needs stronger ties with other countries, since they no longer consider the U.S. a reliable ally. “People feel that they might be forced to pick a side,” Eiríkur Bergmann, a politics professor at Bifröst University in Iceland, told the Times. “And then there is really only one side to pick.” Trump has made numerous threats to take over Greenland—an autonomous territory of Denmark, a U.S. NATO ally—since before his second spell in the White House. Trump claims the U.S. must control the mineral-rich Arctic island for national security reasons.The 79-year-old raised concerns when he repeatedly confused Greenland with Iceland earlier this year.During a January speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Trump mixed up the two territories while lashing out at NATO for not allowing him to seize Greenland.“I know we’d be there for them. I don’t know that they’d be there for us with all of the money we expend, with all of the blood, sweat and tears… They’re not there for us on Iceland, I can tell you,” Trump said. “Their stock market took the first dip yesterday because of Iceland.”White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt desperately tried to defend the president’s gaffe by claiming his written remarks had referred to Greenland as a “piece of ice.” Karoline Leavitt quickly jumped to Trump's defense on X. / Screenshot/X / Screenshot/XHowever, Trump also mixed up the two places at a news conference at the White House the day before, while defending his aggressive tariff threats.“Iceland, without tariffs, they wouldn’t even be talking to us about it,” Trump said. The president had threatened to impose tariffs on several European nations as part of a pressure tactic aimed at forcing Denmark to sell Greenland to the U.S.

Threat Of 2030s Lunar War Has NASA, Elon Musk Racing To Build Major Moon Base --NASA unveiled plans earlier this week for a lunar base as the U.S. finds itself locked in a multi-domain race with China, one that stretches across energy, compute, weapons, drones, trade, rare earths, shipbuilding, and now the Moon.The next front with Beijing is no longer just about returning humans to the lunar surface. It is about establishing permanent infrastructure, securing access to lunar resources, and eventually determining whether the U.S. or China will set the rules for space in the 2030s and beyond. Elon Musk commented on NASA's X release about the new lunar base, saying, "Time to build a major base on the Moon!" So why the sudden urgency for NASA to establish a lunar base?A new Mitchell Institute policy report says the U.S. Space Force should prepare to put active-duty Guardians on space stations and eventually on the Moon to counter China's military-led space ambitions.The paper noted: "With a potential 'in-person' lunar conflict with China as the contextual touchstone, the U.S. must begin a pragmatic, multi-decade effort, leveraging its Space Test Course (STC), as well as partnerships with NASA and commercial space companies, to deliver the skills, tools, and concepts needed for future Title 10 activities to enforce U.S. spacepower-enabling norms and standards." It added, "These efforts will require additional funding from Congress for both U.S. Space Force human spaceflight opportunities and residencies at commercial space stations."The 22-page policy report frames the Moon as the next great-power battleground, warning that competition over lunar resources, territory, logistics routes, and future space infrastructure could eventually turn into conflict."Competition for control of lunar resources and territory will likely reach a tipping point, at which time the modern-day space race could turn into conflict. The anarchic nature of the Moon combined with China's record of belligerent use of hard power yields a predictable future where United States lunar interests are put at risk," the paper warned.The think tank noted, "U.S. national security, strength, and prosperity are dependent on securing space dominance in ways that require Title 10 authorities, to include space and lunar habitation." In other words, astronauts and commercial crews would not have the training, legal authority, or warfighting mandate needed to defend U.S. lunar interests.

Claudia Sheinbaum says Mexico will host Iran’s World Cup team - Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on Monday said her country will host Iran’s FIFA World Cup team amid simmering tensions between the Latin American country and the U.S. Sheinbaum told reporters at a press conference that her government has agreed to allow the team into Mexico amid the war in Iran. Mexico will cohost the World Cup jointly with the U.S. and Canada. “We have no reason to deny the possibility of them staying in Mexico,” Sheinbaum said, noting that FIFA officials are considering hosting the Iranian team in Tijuana, just south of San Diego and the southern border. She added that FIFA officials approached Mexico about hosting the team and that the U.S. declined to allow the team to stay in the country. The Hill has reached out to the White House and the State Department for comment. Iran Football Federation President Mehdi Taj said on Saturday that the Iranian team’s training base was moved to Mexico with FIFA’s approval, ESPN reported. The team was scheduled to train in Tucson, Ariz., but was moved due to uncertainty connected to the conflict, along with visa issues while entering the U.S. through Mexico. “All team base camps for the countries participating in the World Cup must be approved [by] FIFA,” Taj said in his statement, according to ESPN. “Fortunately, following the requests we submitted and the meetings we held with FIFA and World Cup officials in Istanbul, as well as the webinar meeting we had yesterday in Tehran with the respected FIFA secretary general, our request to change the team’s base from the United States to Mexico was approved.” Iran had been in talks in March to move the base camp to Mexico. Taj said at the time that President Trump “has explicitly stated that he cannot ensure the security of the Iranian national team.” Trump around the same time said, however, that it was safe for the team to play in the U.S., adding “but I really don’t believe it is appropriate that they be there, for their own life and safety.” FIFA President Gianni Infantino assured in April that Iran would play despite the war. “We hope that by then, of course, the situation will be a peaceful situation,” he said. “As I said, that would definitely help. But Iran has to come. Of course, they represent their people. They have qualified. The players want to play.” The Iranian team will play against New Zealand on June 15 and Belgium on June 21 in Inglewood, Calif., just south of Los Angeles, then against Egypt in Seattle on June 26.

US Tells Japan To Expect Severe Delays in Delivery of Tomahawk Missiles Due to Iran War - The US has told Japan to expect severe delays in the delivery of 400 Tomahawk missiles due to the US war against Iran, The Financial Times has reported.  Sources told the FT that US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth informed Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi of the delay during a call earlier this month. Tokyo is purchasing 400 Tomahawk missiles under a $2.35 billion deal finalized in 2024, as part of a US-backed Japanese military buildup that breaks with the pacifism outlined in the constitution the US imposed on Japan after World War II.Tomahawks would give Japan the ability to strike the Chinese mainland since the missiles have a range of more than 1,000 miles. One aspect of the US strategy and military buildup against China in the Asia-Pacific is to encourage its allies to build up their own military forces, and the US focus on the Middle East and its munitions expenditure against Iran is seen as a blow to that plan.According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the US used more than 1,000 Tomahawk missiles in its bombing campaign against Iran, nearly one-third of its estimated pre-war inventory of 3,100. The FT report said Japan had expected to receive two batches of 200 Tomahawk missiles by April 2028, and that the delay could push that timeline back by up to two years.Tomahawk missiles were used in the February 28 US strike on an elementary school in Minab, southern Iran, which killed at least 156 civilians, including 120 boys and girls. Despite the clear evidence that the US was responsible for the strike, the Trump administration claims it’s still under investigation.

Tulsi Gabbard To Go Nuclear On Deep State Before Leaving ODNI -Last week, Tulsi Gabbard, President Trump's Director of National Intelligence, announced she will step down on June 30 to care for her husband, Abraham, who has been diagnosed with what she called "an extremely rare form of bone cancer." "My husband, Abraham, has recently been diagnosed with an extremely rare form of bone cancer. He faces major challenges in the coming weeks and months. At this time, I must step away from public service to be by his side and fully support him through this battle," she wrote in her resignation letter. "I cannot in good conscience ask him to face this fight alone while I continue in this demanding and time-consuming position." Since taking the position of DNI, Gabbard has moved aggressively to overhaul the intelligence community, trying to root out the politicization and corruption, including exposing the deep state’s war on President Trump. Gabbard revoked the security clearances of officials found to have "abused public trust," shut down DEI programs across the intelligence community, and redirected its focus toward foreign terrorist organizations. Gabbard also prioritized transparency, and by May 2026, Gabbard had overseen the declassification of more than 500,000 pages of previously secret government documents. Those documents span an almost surreal range of American history: assassination records on President John F. Kennedy, Sen. Robert F. Kennedy, and Martin Luther King Jr.; files connected to Amelia Earhart's 1937 disappearance; and Biden administration documents detailing the federal government's "Strategic Implementation Plan for Countering Domestic Terrorism." She also pushed the declassification of materials she argues expose the full mechanics of the Russia investigation, which her office says proved that the Obama administration weaponized intelligence to undermine Trump's 2016 campaign. She may be leaving, but between now and her final day as DNI, Gabbard intends to make her departure felt by the deep state. Gabbard plans to release findings from a string of sensitive investigations in weekly installments. These revelations will include declassifications covering the Havana Syndrome, the origins of COVID-19, the alleged weaponization of the federal government under recent Democrat administrations, and the 2020 presidential election.

Senate Democrat pepper sprayed at protest outside ICE detention facility in New Jersey  Sen. Andy Kim (D-N.J.) on Monday was pepper-sprayed by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers while demonstrators gathered outside an immigration detention facility in Newark, N.J.Videos circulated online of mutual aid volunteers pouring water into Kim’s eyes while he held an ice pack in his hand. One video showed Kim speaking directly to ICE agents surrounding a detained individual, with another showing him speaking with demonstrators.Kim, later Monday, said he saw “chaos inside and outside” of Delaney Hall, the detention center where around 300 migrants are holding a hunger and work strike against the center’s conditions.“Detainees protesting the lack of due process, the disgusting food and poor treatment while their families and advocates stood outside calling for help,” he wrote on the social platform X. “Instead of engaging with me and others about the poor conditions, ICE sent in an armored vehicle and a line of armed agents that only poured gasoline on the fire.” Kim said he saw ICE agents tackle and restrain demonstrators, while “agents fired pepper balls and spray into the crowd.”“What I witnessed and experienced today was shameful,” the New Jersey Democrat said. “Delaney Hall is a failure; it’s this administration’s failure. The only way to make this right for our communities is to shut it down and make sure the failures we’ve seen never happen again.”Kim joined Democratic elected officials, including New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill and Reps. Rob Menendez, LaMonica McIver and Nellie Pou outside the detention center for an oversight visit of the facility. Sherrill and Menendez said they were denied access after they initiall arrived. All of the elected Democrats were photographed speaking with protesters.Kim told the New Jersey Globe that it was difficult to breathe after ICE officers pepper-sprayed him and demonstrators, with other officers using batons to disperse the crowds.“What we saw here is unfortunately just what we see all over the country,” Kim told NJ.com, an Advance Local news affiliate based in New Jersey. “It’s sad, it’s a sad day.A Department of Homeland Security spokesperson said Kim was allowed into the facility after he made a direct call to Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin. The spokesperson did not confirm whether Sherrill or the other lawmakers were allowed access into the facility. Mullin posted on X that there was no hunger strike at the facility and called the Democrats’ visit to Delaney Hill a “political stunt.”

Airlines urge Trump not to curb international flights 'sanctuary cities' -- Airline, hotel and other industry groups are urging the White House and top Trump administration officials to abandon a proposal that would cut off immigration processing at major airports, including Newark Liberty International Airport in New Jersey, a United Airlines hub. United CEO Scott Kirby was set to discuss the proposal with Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin to convey the disruptions the policies could cause to travelers, according to two people familiar with the previously unreported call who spoke on condition of anonymity to talk about a private conversation. Airlines for America, a trade association whose members include American Airlines, United Airlines and Delta Air Lines told White House officials this week that reducing Customs and Border Protection service at Newark, New Jersey’s airport would “create havoc” for U.S. citizens, which make up the bulk of the 20,000 passengers flying in internationally to the airport, according to a document that was seen by CNBC. The document also said that if there is a bottleneck at Newark, a major connecting hub, “disproportionate impacts to US citizens will hit heartland America far more than Newark itself.” It also warned against the proposal, which could include impacts to other cities, and said it could curtail air cargo shipments. Mullin said earlier this week on Fox News that the Trump administration was “drawing up plans” to potentially cut immigration and customs processing for international flights at U.S. airports in so-called “sanctuary cities,” which the government says are more lenient on immigration policies. Such a plan could be intended to pressure leaders of cities to crack down on undocumented immigrants by threatening to impede air travel. The White House didn’t immediately comment. Mullin said in an interview on Fox News’ “Hannity” on Tuesday night said that if “radical left Democrats” aren’t allowing the government to “enforce federal laws ... we shouldn’t be processing international flights into their cities either.” He said the administration hasn’t made a final plan or a decision on such a policy. The Justice Department last August published a list of states and cities it said are impeding U.S. immigration policies, which include major international air hubs New York, Newark, Boston, Chicago, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Seattle and Philadelphia. The proposal is being floated two weeks before the U.S., Canada and Mexico are set to host the FIFA Men’s World Cup, but it isn’t clear if the plan, if enacted, would take place before or during the tournament, which could derail travel for millions of people.

Biden DHS Released Nearly 90% Of Border Migrants Through Parole Program - A new report from the Government Accountability Office found that the Biden administration released nearly 90 percent of migrants encountered at the southern border through parole authority at the height of its catch-and-release policies. The report details how the Department of Homeland Security under former President Joe Biden and then-DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas dramatically expanded the use of “humanitarian parole” between early 2021 and Jan. 20, 2025.According to the GAO, parole authority had previously been used sparingly by presidential administrations before Biden took office.“Specifically, our analysis showed that OFO and Border Patrol granted relatively few paroles during fiscal years 2019 and 2020,” the report stated.The watchdog agency found that during 2019 and 2020, parole was granted in roughly 3 percent to 28 percent of southwest border encounters. That changed sharply beginning in the summer of 2021.“The number of paroles granted increased beginning in the summer of 2021 and peaked in December 2022, when 89 percent of encounters resulted in parole,” the report stated.“Paroles granted declined substantially after December 2022 and again after January 2025.”The report also raised concerns that the Biden administration’s mass parole program overwhelmed federal immigration enforcement systems and left authorities struggling to track migrants released into the country.“… without readily accessible information about noncitizens’ parole status, ICE does not have the information it needs to identify and monitor these noncitizens, or to take enforcement action, as appropriate,” the report stated.Conservatives have argued throughout Biden’s presidency that the administration effectively dismantled immigration enforcement at the southern border by relying heavily on parole authority to release migrants into the interior of the United States. Some architects of those immigration policies are now pushing Democrats to restore similar programs if the party regains power in Washington.

Trump to appeal order allowing importers to seek tariffs refunds - Businesses big and small have started receiving tariff refunds after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that President Donald Trump lacked the constitutional authority to impose higher import taxes on goods from nearly every other country.The process could grind to a halt, however, after the Trump administration said Friday that it intended to appeal a federal judge’s order allowing all companies that paid the invalidated duties to seek refunds, not just those that filed lawsuits.Until the Department of Justice informed the judge of its planned appeal, the refund system overseen by U.S. Customs and Border Protection had worked fairly smoothly. Refunds were deposited into the bank accounts of the first successful applicants on May 12, about three weeks after importers and their customs brokers could begin submitting claims, according to CBP.Applications for refunds totaling $85 billion — more than half of the $166 billion the agency estimated the government owes to companies that paid the tariffs on imported goods — were accepted for processing as of May 22, CBP reported in a legal filing earlier in the week. It said it had so far directed the Treasury Department to issue $20.6 billion in refunds.The administration revealed its appeal preparations while objecting to Judge Richard K. Eaton’s demand that CBP Commissioner Rodney Scott appear in the U.S. Court of International Trade on June 9. The judge said he wants to know how long it would take to repay all 330,000 importers that might be eligible for refunds and whether he should require the government to speed up the process.Justice Department lawyers asked Eaton to allow Scott’s deputies to appear in his place, arguing that as a high-ranking presidential appointee, the CBP chief could not be compelled to testify. They also argued that Eaton exceeded his authority when he determined that the Supreme Court’s ruling entitled “all importers of record″ to refunds.“For that reason, defendants intend to appeal the court’s universal injunction,” the lawyers wrote, adding that CBP would continue to move “as quickly as it can to process refunds in a phased approach” for businesses that filed legal complaints asserting their rights to refunds. Eaton responded that he needed to hear directly from Scott whether the government would return all of the money it collected between April 2025, when Trump put what he called “reciprocal” tariffs on most countries, and the Supreme Court’s decision in late February.“It is undisputed that the remedy for this unlawful collection is for the United States government to refund the unlawfully collected duties,” the judge wrote.Customs and Border Protection is handling refund claims in phases, focusing first on payments that weren’t finalized before the Supreme Court handed down its 6-3 decision. CBP officials said those later, estimated payments were simpler to process because they remained open in its system.In Friday’s filing, the Justice Department said the agency required technological upgrades to its refund portal and “importer-specific orders” in each lawsuit that businesses filed before it could recalculate the final tax bills for older “liquidated” accounts.More than 1,000 companies filed lawsuits in the trade court to recoup their tariff costs. It was not immediately clear how many importers that paid the tariffs did not sue and might not receive refunds if an appeal of Eaton’s blanket order succeeds.Ryan Majerus, a partner on the international trade team at law firm King & Spaulding, said he thinks “it’s definitely a fraction of the total in terms of folks who paid” the defunct duties. An appeal would likely affect only imported merchandise that was in the U.S. for 314 days, a time when CPB issues its official determination of the duties owed, he said.“This doesn’t cover everybody, only those really old entries,” Majerus said about a potential appeal.But filing an appeal could slow the refund process even if the government “already lost the war” before the Supreme Court, according to Barry Appleton, a professor at New York Law School and managing partner of Appleton & Associates International Lawyers.“If the government can freeze the refund machinery while it litigates, it buys months, and every month of delay is a month the Treasury keeps the money,” Appleton said.

Committee approves highway bill after sparring over EV fees, climate repeals - - The House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee approved its surface transportation bill early Friday after dismissing Democratic amendments on electric vehicle fees, environmental reviews and the restoration of climate programs that the bill proposes to repeal.The “BUILD America 250 Act,” from Chair Sam Graves (R-Mo.) and ranking member Rick Larsen (D-Wash.), advanced 62-2. It sets up a clash with the Senate later this year over the EV fees, a railway safety proposal and other contentious provisions.Graves and Larsen touted the bill’s proposed funding increases for bridge construction and repairs, as well as the new fees on lower-emission vehicles — the first new revenue for the Highway Trust Fund since the early 1990s.Members lauded proposed boosts for highways and transit, as well as provisions that would ease environmental reviews for certain infrastructure projects, update a wildlife crossing program and study fire risks associated with lithium-ion batteries.

House spending plan slaps hefty inspection fees on offshore wind projects - The House Republican spending bill for the Interior Department contains another potential punch for the beleaguered offshore wind industry: big new fees. The fiscal 2027 Interior-Environment spending bill, which a House Appropriations subcommittee advanced last week, would impose a range of fees on offshore wind projects. Those are broken into annual fees and physical inspection fees. Annual fees would be $7,300 for an onshore inspection visit to an offshore wind project’s control center and $15,400 for a visual inspection of a wind turbine. Further physical inspections of a wind turbine or substation would cost $72,800. The new fees largely reflect the White House’s proposed budget for Interior, released in March. The fees could amount to much more than is paid by offshore oil companies for inspections, given that the language calls for per-turbine inspections and wind farms include many turbines: 62 for the newly running Vineyard Wind project off Massachusetts and more than 170 anticipated for a project under construction off the coast of Virginia. “This appears as another direct effort to constrain the offshore wind industry,” said Timothy Fox, managing director of ClearView Energy Partners, in an email. “The Trump Administration has already significantly constrained proposed offshore wind projects and may hope the inspection fees undermine the viability of projects already in service.” Inspection fees and other similar charges are common in the energy sector, and wind industry players have long expected a fee schedule was in the offing. Offshore wind did not take off in the U.S. until the Biden administration, with several projects under construction right now along the East Coast. Vineyard Wind finished construction in March and is working to bring all of its turbines online, while Revolution Wind off the coast of Rhode Island has nearly installed all of its 65 turbines and has begun to send power to the grid. But the Trump administration has hammered wind energy by canceling leases, trying to block projects currently being built and paying companies to abandon their plans. An Interior spokesperson declined to comment on the fee language. Spokespeople for Republican appropriators did not respond to a request for comment. The fees would be overseen by the administration’s planned new Marine Minerals Administration, an agency that combines the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management and the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement to oversee offshore oil and gas and wind power. In the administration’s budget justification, officials wrote that the new fees are needed following the expansion of offshore wind during the Biden administration. “Based on this expansion, and so that offshore wind operators are not held to different standards than oil and gas companies, MMA is proposing inspection fees to offset MMA’s costs,” the administration wrote in its budget justification. But Democrats in Congress, analysts and former officials are skeptical that the fees are intended to implement a level playing field, saying they appear instead to reflect President Donald Trump’s antipathy for wind energy.

Forest bills hearing rekindles debate over logging limits - A House subcommittee Wednesday revisited the long-running debate about barring logging in roadless areas of national forests, with few signs that the battle lines have changed. The Natural Resources Subcommittee on Federal Lands took up the issue at a hearing on several bills, including Wyoming Republican Rep. Harriet Hageman’s H.R. 7695, which would rescind the roadless area conservation rule of 2001. Divisions on the issue broke down along the usual lines, with Hageman and other Republicans on the panel blaming the restrictions for allowing Western forests to become overgrown, increasing the risk of wildfire. Democrats, including Natural Resources ranking member Jared Huffman of California, said the roadless-area rule has been a success, protecting wild areas while allowing limited forest thinning and, in some places, mining and energy development.

Senate panel rejects California governor’s climate spending plan - --California state senators voted Thursday to reject Gov. Gavin Newsom’s proposed spending plan for the state’s carbon auction revenues. The vote was widely seen as a protest against controversial changes that could cut billions of dollars from the state’s climate funding pot. The Senate’s Budget Subcommittee 2 on Resources, Environmental Protection and Energy voted Thursday morning to reject Newsom’s proposed spending plan for the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund.That fund, also known as GGRF, receives roughly $3 billion to $4 billion a year from the sale of pollution permits, which helps pay for high-speed rail, Cal Fire and a long list of clean transportation, water, energy and environmental justice programs. The vote comes as the California Air Resources Board is weighing major changes to the state’s cap-and-invest program, the carbon market that generates the revenue. Those changes are meant to ease costs for oil refineries and other industries, but legislative analysts and advocates warn they could also reduce auction revenue by up to $2 billion a year in future years.

Republicans haul Oregon climate lawyer before Congress - An attorney working on an Oregon county’s climate lawsuit against the oil and gas industry will appear in July before House Republicans looking into alleged efforts to influence judges.Roger Worthington, who represents the Oregon county and was one of two attorneys to receive a letter in January asking about his interactions with a judicial education group, has agreed to sit for a deposition, following a subpoena in May.Worthington said the lawmakers’ request appears motivated at placating the industry. It comes as the Trump administration and Republican legislators have ramped up efforts to quash nearly two dozen lawsuits filed by local and state governments seeking compensation for the costs of climate change. The cases — if successful — could cost the oil industry billions of dollars.“The committee is throwing Big Oil a bone they can chew on to advance their false narrative that climate accountability lawsuits are illegal, anti-American and driven by tort lawyer avarice,” Worthington told POLITICO’s E&E News.The deposition comes after months of correspondence between Worthington and House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan of Ohio and House Judiciary Subcommittee on Courts Chair Darrell Issa of California. The lawmakers said in the subpoena they are investigating whether there was coordination between the Washington-based Environmental Law Institute and Worthington’s law firm “to secure favorable judgments in climate-related cases.”A spokesperson for the committee said it is investigating allegations of “improper efforts to influence federal judges,” adding that Worthington did not voluntarily agree to appear, but was compelled under subpoena.“We expect Mr. Worthington’s full cooperation,” the spokesperson said.Republicans have been targeting the nonprofit Environmental Law Institute and its Climate Judiciary Project since 2023 after industry and conservative groups raised questions about the organization and the objectivity of judges handling climate lawsuits, following a handful of losses at the Supreme Court.ELI has said its program provides judges, “who are often generalists, with the context they need to effectively manage the evidence that will be presented by the parties in cases that come before them.”The institute has said its Climate Judiciary Project “does not participate in litigation, coordinate with any parties related to any litigation, or advise judges on how they should rule on any issue or in any case.”At least one Democrat has accused the fossil fuel industry and its allies of looking to influence judges. Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island, the top Democrat on the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, last week asked the policymaking body of the federal courts to tighten rules for judges, citing a recent judicial seminar run by George Mason George Mason University’s Law and Economics Center.Whitehouse accused the fossil fuel industry of wanting judges to “rely on industry-funded front groups to learn its version of climate ‘science.’”Worthington noted Chevron, which is named in the Oregon lawsuit, already tried to raise ELI as a factor in a motion accusing him of “perpetrating a fraud on the court,” but that the court denied the company’s request to depose him.The oil company in a motion last September noted Worthington had featured on his website a prepublication version of a judicial climate education “module” used by ELI’s Climate Judiciary Project.Chevron claimed the appearance “raises significant questions as to whether the law firm is engaged in an effort to prejudice the courts more broadly in its client’s and litigation allies’ favor.”But the company did not raise the allegation during a hearing last October in the climate case from Multnomah County, Oregon. The judge rejected Chevron’s efforts to remove two scientific studies — which were unrelated to ELI — from the lawsuit. He did chastise Worthington for failing to tell the court about his involvement with two papers from the scientific journal Nature.

Trump to ship potentially sick Americans to foreign country - The Trump administration has decided to send Americans who may have contracted Ebola to Kenya instead of monitoring their health and treating them as needed in the U.S. That plan, the New York Times reported on Tuesday, comes nearly two weeks after the announcement of an outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where more than 200 people have died in just 11 days. The Trump administration’s cuts to the U.S. Agency for International Development and the Centers for Disease Control, experts say, worsened the situation in the developing African country.The administration’s tactic of keeping potentially infected Americans out of the country follows its move to prevent certain foreigners from entering due to the outbreak. Last week, the administration invoked Title 42 to bar entry to immigrants and legal permanent residents who had been in either the Congo, Uganda or South Sudan within the previous three weeks. Title 42 is the same public health law used during COVID-19 to restrict migrant border crossings from Mexico into the U.S.The plan is also an outlier compared to Trump’s predecessors. During the 2014-15 Ebola outbreak in West Africa, for instance, six Americans who contracted the disease there were brought to the U.S. for treatment: three health workers, a freelance cameraman for NBC, a Doctors Without Borders worker, and one unidentified American who was treated in Atlanta.According to the Times, the Trump administration at first planned to just monitor potentially infected Americans in Kenya and move any with symptoms to Europe. Those included an American doctor who was sent to Germany, and six other Americans who were flown to Germany and the Czech Republic. But now, treatment will also take place in Kenya, two people with knowledge of the planning said. A Trump administration official told the paper that a quarantine and treatment facility is being set up as a joint effort by the Departments of State, Defense, and Health and Human Services. Additionally, Public Health Service officers are being trained before they’re sent to Kenya.

Trump’s gag order sends shivers down feds’ spines - President Donald Trump wants everyone in government to sign a nondisclosure agreement. Federal employees see it as another attempt by his administration to intimidate them. The Office of Personnel Management on Wednesday published in the Federal Register a proposal to have civil servants sign a governmentwide NDA. The measure is designed to have new and existing employees acknowledge and agree with laws already in place to safeguard “non-public, confidential, or proprietary information.” If those employees break the NDA — or refuse to sign it — they could be fired by their agencies. The new push is part of an ongoing effort by the Trump administration to crack down on leaks surrounding policy moves and to further realign the federal workforce. The proposal cites unauthorized leaks to outlets like The New York Times and The Washington Post tied to military operations. Federal workers are already well aware of the restrictions on what they can share with the public, said Stephanie Rapp-Tully, a partner at law firm Tully Rinckey. “Government employees can’t just share work information willy-nilly,” said Rapp-Tully, an expert in federal employment law. “But the way that this is written — and the potential repercussions that could come from this — could have a chilling effect, absolutely, on government employees who feel scared to become a whistleblower.” POLITICO’s E&E News talked to 13 federal employees about the governmentwide NDA proposal. Granted anonymity because they fear retaliation, some said they wouldn’t sign the agreement, or would at least seek counsel from their unions before doing so. One EPA employee said staff there attend annual training sessions on how to protect all kinds of information that can’t be released outside the agency without authorization. They said the proposal was “a reaffirmation of existing law,” which indicates it is “superfluous and meant to intimidate.” “We are well aware of our duties, and this rule is just meant to try and suppress our freedom to speak on matters of public concern,” said the employee. A Department of Energy staffer said the notice appears designed to instill fear within the federal workforce and discourage leaks. “OPM’s goal doesn’t seem to be developing robust rules for protecting nonpublic information, but rather, establishing the authority for OPM to punish feds in a more unilateral way,” said the staffer. The notice shows how concerned the Trump administration is about leaks tied to proposed actions, the staffer added. “The White House has placed barriers on interagency review for some high-profile actions, including not sharing draft text and only allowing in-person briefings in some cases,” they said. A Department of the Interior staffer questioned how the proposal would affect whistleblower protections or the ability of federal workers to communicate with Congress. “My concern is that this adds another element that would dissuade potential employees from federal service,” they said. “Even if you’re compelled by the mission, does this outweigh your desire to work for the government?” Asked for reaction to the proposed governmentwide NDA, a second EPA employee said, “I’m left thinking we’re about to start getting asked to do a whole lot more illegal shit.”

Trump to headline 'Great American State Fair' for nation’s 250th anniversary after artists drop out - An upcoming celebration of America’s 250th anniversary, “The Great American State Fair,” recently had several musical guests back out partly over the event’s ties to President Donald Trump. Now, Trump himself is slated to headline the festivities, the organizers said Saturday. “I understand Artists are getting ‘the yips’ having to do with their performance,” Trump posted to his social media platform Truth Social Saturday, adding that he was thinking of bringing “the man who some say is the Greatest President in History (THE GOAT!), DONALD J. TRUMP, to take the place of these highly paid, Third Rate ‘Artists.’” The group organizing the June fair on Washington’s National Mall, Freedom 250, confirmed the billing in a statement, writing, “we are excited to announce that President Trump will personally kick off this historic celebration on Wednesday, June 24.” Trump’s social media post twice referenced him holding a rally “Wednesday,” without a specific date. The White House did not immediately clarify the discrepancy. Danielle Alvarez, a spokesperson for Freedom 250, emphasized the broader fair that is scheduled from June 25 through July 10 includes an array of exhibits, family-friendly attractions, musical performances, flyovers and more. Freedom 250 is billed as nonpartisan, but was launched last year by Trump and is led by a former State Department appointee from Trump’s first term. Several artists, including Bret Michaels, the Commodores and Martina McBride, dropped out last week. Michaels and other artists have said they were misled about the shows’ theme or were otherwise wary of getting caught up in a political fight. McBride, in a statement on Instagram, said she had been “presented with an opportunity to perform at a nonpartisan event but that turned out to be misleading.” Other artists planning to attend include Flo Rida, Fab Morvan of Milli Vanilli, and Vanilla Ice. The latter’s representative previously said that the “Ice Ice Baby” rapper was “proud to help celebrate America’s 250th Anniversary!”

Trump’s name must be removed from Kennedy Center, judge rules - A federal judge on Friday barred President Donald Trump from adding his name to that of the Kennedy Center, as he did in late December, ruling that “Congress gave the Kennedy Center its name, and only Congress can change it.” Judge Christopher Cooper ordered that Trump’s name be removed from the facade of the center and other sinage within two weeks. Cooper also temporarily blocked the Washington, D.C., performing arts landmark, which in December had been renamed the “Trump Kennedy Center,” from being closed for two years for renovations at the behest of the president, who is chair of its Board of Trustees. Cooper’s order came in response to a lawsuit by Rep. Joyce Beatty, an Ohio Democrat and ex officio Kennedy Center trustee, whose civil complaint challenged the renaming, the closure of the center for renovations, and being stripped of her voting rights by board in May 2025. Cooper, in his ruling, said the Kennedy Center’s board did not balance its obligations to the center in deciding to shutter for renovations. But the board might be able to close for that purpose “after independently balancing its multiple obligations to the Center in a prudent fashion,” the judge wrote in the decision in U.S. District Court in Washington. Cooper also said his preliminary injunction “will not prevent the Center from moving forward with the capital repair work it has planned.” Trump later blasted Cooper for the ruling, but seemed resigned to his name being pulled off the Kennedy Center, which the president characterized as being badly in need of repair. “We are going to be working with Congress to transfer this failing Institution back to them so they can make a determination as to what to do with it,” Trump said in a Truth Social post. “Judge Cooper should be ashamed of himself!” the president wrote. “I cannot be involved with a situation where danger to the Public is allowed to flourish in plain and open sight.” The board’s vote to rename the center came 10 months after Trump removed several trustees from the board and appointed himself as a trustee. The center’s facade was changed to reflect the decision, as were other signs around the facility. “Representative Beatty is entitled to summary judgment on the renaming issue,” Cooper wrote Friday. “The Kennedy Center’s organic statute makes crystal clear that the Center is to be named for President [John] Kennedy, and it cannot bear any other formal name or public memorial based on the Board’s unilateral say-so,” the judge wrote. “Congress gave the Kennedy Center its name, and only Congress can change it.”

House rejects Smithsonian women’s history museum on National Mall - The House rejected legislation Thursday to advance construction of the Smithsonian American Women’s History Museum after a partisan battle broke out in recent days over the long-sought building.Lawmakers voted 216-204 to reject the legislation led by Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R-N.Y.). Six Republican hard-liners joined all Democrats in opposition.While 127 Democrats co-sponsored an earlier version of the bill, most of them bailed after Republicans altered it ahead of the floor vote.New language added in the House Administration Committee last month dedicated the museum to “preserving, researching, and presenting the history, achievements, and lived experiences of biological women in the United States” and prohibited the institution from seeking to “identify, present, describe, or otherwise depict any biological male as a female.”

Tillis blasts DOJ's $1.8B fund as 'politically tone-deaf' -Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) took another swipe at the Department of Justice’s (DOJ) nearly $1.8 billion “anti-weaponization” fund, an initiative that lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have criticized in recent days. “I call it a payout pot for punks,” Tillis said Sunday on CNN’s “State of the Union.” “It makes no sense. So, it’s politically tone-deaf,” he continued, telling host Jake Tapper, “Whoever did it should be fired.”Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche announced the creation of the fund a week ago, as part of a settlement in President Trump’s since-withdrawn $10 billion lawsuit against the IRS.  The pot of money will “have the power to issue formal apologies and monetary relief” to those who successfully argue that the federal government wronged them, according to the DOJ. Trump pushed back on the criticism, calling the senator a “nitpicker.”While the department noted that “there are no partisan requirements” to file a claim under the fund, numerous lawmakers have raised concerns that those convicted for their alleged role in the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol attack — including those who assaulted police officers — could receive taxpayer-funded settlements.Tillis, who is retiring at the end of the term, echoed those concerns on Sunday, telling Tapper that those “who were convicted by a jury of their peers or pled guilty to assaulting a police officer” should not receive money from the federal government. “If you’re talking about a fund that helps a man who was arrested and lawfare used against him at a school board meeting and was found innocent, that’s fine,” he said. “Help them out. Pay them back.”“In fact, I think that they should seek redress through the agency that brought the lawsuit. But this is just … horrible politics. It’s horrible timing,” the GOP lawmaker added.House and Senate Republicans remain divided over the fund.The move has also derailed Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s (R-S.D.) plans to advance a $72 billion immigration enforcement package through budget reconciliation, as lawmakers left town on Friday for a nine-day recess without a deal.

Newsom Vows 100% Tax On Trump "Anti-Weaponization Fund" Payouts - California Gov. Gavin Newsom said Wednesday that his administration will seek to impose a 100 percent tax on any California residents who receive money from President Donald Trump's newly created $1.776 billion "anti-weaponization" fund. Speaking to reporters, Newsom denounced the fund as a "slush fund" and pledged to block Californians from financially benefiting from it. "Anyone from California that receives any of those funds, we want to tax 100 percent of those proceeds," Newsom said during a press conference. "He pardoned all of those folks that were beating up cops and absolved them, providing them 1.776 billion dollars," Newsom said. "So not only do you get a pardon, you get rewarded. That's why this is needed." The fund was established as part of Trump's settlement with the Department of Justice stemming from his lawsuit against the IRS over the leak of his tax returns. Trump has described the program as restitution for Americans harmed by what he called politically motivated government actions during the Biden administration. Last week, Trump defended the fund as compensation for people "badly abused by an evil, corrupt, and weaponized Biden Administration." Democrats in several blue states are now attempting to block recipients from keeping any payouts tied to the program. In New York, Democratic Assemblyman Alex Bores introduced legislation that would similarly impose a 100 percent tax on recipients of the fund. State Sen. Mike Gianaris said Democrats in Albany are pushing to advance the measure before the legislative session ends next week. "There's widespread, bipartisan agreement that this is baldfaced corruption at its worst and if we have the ability in New York to combat it by ensuring that none of this money benefits anyone in our state's borders, I'd expect there'd be widespread support for that idea," Gianaris said. Democratic lawmakers in New Jersey are also drafting similar legislation. State Sen. Andrew Zwicker called the proposal "a brilliant counter move to Trump's corruption."

Trump DOJ 'lawfare' fund temporarily blocked by judge as suit proceeds -- A federal judge in Virginia on Friday temporarily blocked the Department of Justice from taking any further action to create or disburse money from its so-called Anti-Weaponization Fund as one of three lawsuits challenging it proceeds. Judge Leonie Brinkema said she would hold a hearing on June 12 in U.S. District Court in Alexandria on whether to maintain the injunction against the DOJ’s $1.8 billion fund.Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche earlier this month said he was creating that fund as part of a settlement of a $10 billion lawsuit by President Donald Trump against the Internal Revenue Service for the leak of his tax records by an IRS employee. Blanche is Trump’s former criminal defense lawyer.Hours after Brinkema’s order a judge overseeing a lawsuit challenging the fund in Washington, D.C., federal court scheduled a hearing for Wednesday at the request by the advocacy group Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington to issue a temporary restraining order that would block the DOJ’s fund from operating as that suit plays out.The fund is meant to compensate people who allege they were the victims of prosecutorial overreach by the DOJ under the Biden administration, which they and Trump have called “lawfare.”  Critics have called it a “slush fund” for Trump allies, including people who participated in the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol. One of the plaintiffs in the lawsuit, who on Thursday had asked Brinkema for the injunction and expedited briefing on blocking the fund, is Andrew Floyd, a former federal prosecutor who said he was fired last year for his work prosecuting Jan. 6 defendants.

Biden Sues To Block DOJ Release Of Audio Recordings From Biographer Interviews -  Former President Joe Biden filed a lawsuit on May 26 in a bid to block the Department of Justice (DOJ) from releasing audio recordings and transcripts of his private conversations with a biographer that were connected to a 2023 special counsel probe into his handling of classified records. The lawsuit, filed in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, comes as the DOJ planned to release the materials to the House Judiciary Committee and conservative think tank The Heritage ​Foundation on June 15.The materials stemmed from private conversations Biden had with ghostwriter Mark Zwonitzer in his home between 2016 and 2017 as part of the writing process for his memoir titled “Promise Me, Dad: A Year of Hope, Hardship, and Purpose.”The book detailed Biden’s decision to run for the 2016 ​presidency while ⁠his eldest son, Beau, fought brain cancer and later passed away in 2015, according to the lawsuit.The DOJ later obtained the materials in 2023 as part of former special counsel Robert Hur’s investigation into Biden’s handling of classified information after his vice presidency.The probe ended in 2024 with findings that Biden had willfully retained classified materials, though no criminal charges were pursued. Hur said at the time that the evidence fell short of proof beyond a reasonable doubt.According to Biden’s lawsuit, the DOJ initially withheld the materials under the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) on the grounds that they were exempt from disclosure, but the department later reversed its position under President Donald Trump’s second term.The lawsuit seeks judicial review to stop the DOJ from disclosing the materials, citing Biden’s privacy rights and the DOJ’s obligations to protect “sensitive and highly personal law enforcement information.”“Every American, including a sitting or former Vice President, has a right to privacy in the personal conversations he has within his own home,” the lawsuit stated. “And when the U.S. Department of Justice obtains that private information through a criminal investigation, the department bears a particular responsibility to protect it from disclosure.”The Epoch Times reached out to the DOJ for comment, but did not receive a response by publication time. Biden has earlier sought to intervene in the Heritage Foundation’s lawsuit against the DOJ over the materials. ⁠Last ​week, a judge allowed Biden to join ​the case but barred him from pursuing claims about the committee’s request for the materials, ​according to court records. Oversight Project, a legal advocacy arm of The Heritage Foundation, said on May 11 that the public deserves access to the materials and called for full transparency regarding Hur’s 2023 probe. “President Biden revealed classified information and was not prosecuted,” Oversight Project President Mike Howell said in a statement, adding, “These tapes will further prove the massive lie regarding Biden’s fitness for office and the fact Biden revealed classified information.”

AI-fueled cyberattacks threaten water sector, experts say - Artificial intelligence is making it easier for bad actors to initiate cyberattacks on water infrastructure, yet the water sector remains inadequately prepared, a panel of experts told lawmakers Thursday.Federal agencies are warning of an uptick in cyberattacks from foreign adversaries, including hackers with ties to Iran. Still, despite the need for continued federal support, the Trump administration is taking on a less central role in water infrastructure protection, according to the top cybersecurity expert at the Government Accountability Office.“It has become less clear what leadership role the federal government plans to take,” said David Hinchman, director of information technology and cybersecurity at GAO. “The current administration has stated that it will increasingly defer to state and local governments to take the lead in infrastructure protection but has not yet provided details in this departure from the federal government’s historic role.”Hinchman’s remarks came during a hearing before the House Science, Space and Technology Subcommittee on Environment. In addition to stressing the importance of federal oversight in bolstering cyber preparedness for the water sector, witnesses called for increased funding and research to address the problem.

Robinhood Lets Customers Use AI To Trade Stocks, Make Credit-Card Purchases  - Robinhood Markets is launching a new feature whereby customers can hand their money to an AI agent for automated trading and credit-card purchase decisions. The brokerage is enabling users to link external AI agents-such as Anthropic’s Claude or coding agent Cursor-to a dedicated investment account. Within that account, the AI can access allocated funds and execute stock trades based on user instructions. Users can provide detailed prompts - directing the agent to identify investment opportunities by analyzing startup funding, deal activity, and private-company valuations ahead of public market discovery. And when it zeroes out your account, maybe it'll be your therapist. For now, the feature supports stock trades only; options, crypto, and event-contract capabilities are planned for later rollout. Robinhood will send push notifications for every trade executed by the agent, along with a real-time activity feed in the app. Users retain the ability to monitor activity and disconnect the agent at any time. The company is also letting people hand their credit card over... Customers can connect an AI agent to a virtual version of the company's Gold credit card, enabling it to search for deals, monitor availability, and make purchases according to specified instructions-such as booking flights or securing event tickets within price limits. Agents are restricted to the virtual card and cannot access primary card details. Users can impose spending limits or require approval for every transaction. Abhishek Fatehpuria, Robinhood’s vice president of product management, told the Wall Street Journal that they're just giving customers what they want.   "One thing that we’ve learned from talking to our customers is that they want to give their agents the power of Robinhood, but in a very safe way," Fatehpuria said. Robinhood has already unleashed AI for portfolio analyses and market insights, so this is a natural evolution of the technology, execs say. While the new tools offer convenience and automation, handing financial decisions to agentic black boxes has crushed many a vibecoding tech bro with dreams of escaping the wage cage. AI models excel at processing vast data quickly but can exhibit biases, errors, and limitations. Research from Harvard Business School found that large language models like ChatGPT displayed a “foreign bias” when analyzing Chinese stocks, issuing overly optimistic forecasts compared to models with better local data access. When fed additional Chinese-sourced negative news, the excess optimism vanished. Similar biases appeared in newer models. Performance records for AI-driven trading strategies are mixed at best. Many active and algorithmic approaches, including early AI-powered funds, have underperformed simple broad-market index funds over time. Factors like overfitting, rapid arbitrage of any discovered edges, and herding behavior among similar AI systems can erode advantages quickly.Systemic concerns are also significant. Concentrated use of similar AI models could amplify volatility through simultaneous reactions-echoing past flash crashes triggered by automated trading. Regulatory warnings, including from the SEC on “AI washing” (overhyping capabilities), highlight cases where promised predictive power proved illusory or fraudulent. For retail investors, the appeal of delegating to an AI “black box” is clear: it promises emotion-free, data-driven decisions. It may work well for some in narrow, controlled scenarios with strong oversight and diversification. However, evidence shows most people rug themselves. Markets are noisy, adaptive systems where past patterns offer limited predictive power, and human behavioral coaching often adds more value than automated stock-picking. For sure there are some powerful algorithmic tools out there, but you can't be a moron.

O&G Spending on AI to Grow from $25B in 2025 to $50B in 2035 - Marcellus Drilling News -The oil and gas industry not only benefits from the AI (data center) sector by supplying natural gas to power plants, it also benefits by *using* AI in its operations. Like just about every other business on the planet, O&G companies are now using (embedding) AI into their business. Here’s a startling statistic: In 2025, O&G companies worldwide spent a cumulative estimated $25 billion on AI, according to Rystad Energy. By 2035, that number will be an estimated $50 billion per year. Amazing! Are you looking for a hot hot hot job? Look at AI in O&G.

WATCH: Larry Fink Demands Access to Americans’ Savings, Pension Funds to Bankroll AI Current Sith overlord and aspirational emperor of the galaxy, just a few false flags and manufactured crises away from assuming the throne, Larry Fink, recently appeared at something billed as “National Skilled Trades Day,” hosted by Texas State Technical College in Waco to recruit the electricians he needs to complete the destruction of his AI Death Star. Via Houston Chronicle: “With data centers booming across Texas and population growth continuing steadily, BlackRock is committing $30 million to train more than 12,000 Texas workers for electrical careers. …Formally announced Wednesday [May 6], National Skilled Trades Day, at an event hosted by Texas State Technical College in Waco. It comes as the state has assumed a central role in the nationwide race to construct data centers to support the growth of artificial intelligence and other data-heavy industries. “The scale of growth underway in Texas demands a workforce ready to build it,” said Larry Fink, chairman and CEO of BlackRock, the world’s largest asset management firm, in a news release announcing the grants. The state “sits at the center of America’s infrastructure and energy buildout,” noted BlackRock. Texas’ data center load could more than double by 2028, according to a January report from Bloom Energy, which would give the state about 30% of the United States data center market. The state could become the world’s largest data center market by 2030, according to a February report from JLL, which cited “plentiful land and energy” as a factor fueling Texas’s growth potential. Even before the surge in data center construction began, however, the state was facing a shortage of electricians and electrical workers driven by population growth and rising power demands. The $30 million in funding for workforce training in Texas is part of the broader $100 million Future Builders initiative BlackRock announced in March, which aims to prepare 50,000 Americans for careers in various skilled trades. The nationwide initiative points to a growing demand for HVAC technicians, plumbers, and ironworkers as well as electricians, across the U.S.” In a portion of his comments, Fink, in need of “trillions” of dollars in capital for AI infrastructure by his own estimation, casually demanded that American workers, per a scheme he pitched as “growing with the United States,” have their pension and 401(k) funds redirected into AI investments. If you don’t give him all of your retirement money to build his Panoptican Death Machine, Fink explains, Chinese communist robots will rape your daughter… or something. And wouldn’t you rather have your daughter raped, metaphorically, by Larry Fink? That’s the patriotic thing. “If we could get more and more Americans to think about growing with the United States, we will have far than enough money to invest in this [AI] infrastructure…. The need for electrons is growing every day… If we’re going to be the leader in technology, which we are, if we’re going to be the leader in AI, which we presently are, it’s just going to require trillions of dollars of investments. And if we don’t invest in it, China will be the global leader in this…. To me this is not ‘whether,’ this is a must…. It translates into a more dynamic economy. We need the United States economy to grow at over 2%, we need the U.S. economy to grow at 3%, especially with the growing deficits the federal government has. And so, this money… is going to be coming from the private sector, from savings accounts, from pension accounts, from insurance companies and on and on and on. The whole world is in need of improving infrastructure.”

Homeowners Face Eminent Domain Bulldozers As Data Centers Demand Ever More Power -- Georgia Power isn’t negotiating anymore. The Southern Company subsidiary is seizing dozens of homes and hundreds of easements across Coweta and Fayette counties to ram through a 35-mile, 500-kilovolt transmission line that will feed at least four massive AI data centers. Project Wansley is just the latest flashpoint in a backlash that has been building for months. At least 20 to 30 homes face outright demolition. Another 300-plus properties will get permanent easements for towers planted in backyards and next to pools. But residents like Ansley Brown are fighting back. Her mother bought their family home in 2003 through a USDA rural development loan for single mothers. Now the utility wants the property for the corridor. Brown’s viral TikTok exposing the lowball offers (she says $70,000 to $100,000 below market) has racked up millions of views and drawn state lawmakers into the fight.  Georgia Power says the line is essential. The company is racing to add roughly 10 gigawatts of new generating capacity over the next five years, with executives openly stating that  about 80% of that power will go to data centers. Meanwhile, transmission has become the bottleneck, and utilities are turning to eminent domain to clear the path. This isn’t happening in isolation. We’ve been pounding the table on data center resistance, from Northern Virginia counties rejecting new substations to Texas communities suing over water drawdowns and power rate spikes. The pattern is the same: hyperscale demand collides with local infrastructure limits, and the costs get socialized while the profits stay private.Electricity prices are already feeling the pressure. Utilities across the Southeast and Midwest have warned of double-digit residential rate hikes tied directly to data center load growth. Georgia Power’s own filings show residential customers absorbing a growing share of the bill for transmission and generation built primarily for big tech. The same dynamic is playing out with Meta’s Georgia facilities, where local reporting has highlighted water quality complaints, including muddy runoff affecting nearby residents, alongside the power demands. We’ve seen this movie before with pipelines and wind farms. The difference now is the sheer scale of the load and the speed at which it’s arriving. Data centers don’t just want power; they want it yesterday, and they’re willing to let utilities use the state’s hammer to get it. The pushback in Georgia is a warning shot as more communities draw the same line.

Energy, AI groups call for expanding streamlined water permits -   Lobbyists for AI data centers, mining companies and other major industries are urging the Trump administration to expand the use of streamlined permits under the Clean Water Act. The Army Corps of Engineers is soliciting feedback on ways to make the Nationwide Permit Program more efficient and to limit “unnecessary review.” Although the agency in December authorized the permits for the next five years, it is now considering additional changes.Unlike standard permits that require a review of specific, local impacts to wetlands and streams, nationwide permits authorize categories of projects, including housing complexes, transmission lines and commercial facilities like data centers. Projects that qualify get approved much more quickly on average compared to standard permits, and the public does not have an opportunity to comment on individual projects. But the Army Corps limits nationwide permits to projects with “no more than minimal” adverse impacts to federal waters, and it can still require companies to mitigate for water quality or wetland damages.

ECB tells banks to speed tech fixes as AI shrinks the clock -

• Key insight: The ECB is the first eurozone supervisor to lean on banks directly over the cyber threat from frontier AI models like Mythos, pressing for far faster patching.
• What's at stake: U.S. banks with European operations answer to the ECB's resilience regime, and every bank faces the same AI-enabled attack tools regardless of jurisdiction.
• Forward look: No U.S. financial regulator has issued comparable guidance, leaving open whether Washington follows the EU, the U.K. and the IMF.

Overview bullets generated by AI with editorial review.

TD's new AI agent shaves 15 hours off mortgage decisions | American Banker -  TD Bank Group's AI team has built and deployed its first AI agent — a model that completes mortgage loan applications in minutes as opposed to the 15 hours it normally takes a human to process.

Pope, bank CEOs warn of looming AI job apocalypse  -The looming AI "jobapocalypse" — the fear that AI will automate so many jobs it will actually destabilize society — has been on a lot of minds lately. JPMorganChase CEO Jamie Dimon has talked about it. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon has talked about it. Even Pope Leo is talking about it.

BankThink: The job apocalypse wouldn't have to be that apocalyptic to still be bad  -- American Banker - I worry about AI taking jobs. Not mine, of course. I'm irreplaceable. No, I worry about AI taking other people's jobs. Maybe yours. In this I am not alone. Lots of people are talking about all the jobs that AI is going to automate out of existence. The job apocalypse, they call it, as our Penny Crosman writes.  AI could bring about the worst jobs market in the past century; the good news is we have time to figure out what to do about it.

Exclusive research: Banks up AI investment to cut costs | American Banker – Survey Results: What is most often the strategic rationale for your organization's AI investments?

Trump Backs CFTC Authority Over Prediction Markets - US President Donald Trump has backed the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as having the “exclusive authority” over prediction markets, as state regulators' action against the platforms mounts. “It is critically important that the CFTC’s exclusive authority over Prediction Markets is maintained, and that they will thrive,” Trump posted to his social media platform Truth Social on Tuesday. Trump also took aim at several officials whose states have launched legal action against prediction markets, including Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com and Robinhood. “Under my leadership, we are setting ‘rules of the road’ that are the Gold Standard for the States,” Trump wrote. “We cannot have SCUM like Chris Christie, Letitia James, Tim Walz, and JB Pritzker setting the rules!” Multiple state authorities have argued that prediction markets are violating state laws by offering gambling without a license, and have sued or issued cease-and-desist orders to multiple platforms. Prediction markets including Kalshi have sued various state authorities to fend off legal action, claiming it is regulated solely by the CFTC. CFTC Chair Mike Selig has also opposed the states, arguing his agency has “exclusive jurisdiction” over prediction markets as federally regulated designated contract markets.The agency has sued several states, including Minnesota, Illinois, New York and Arizona for taking action against prediction markets.Trump said in his post that “other Countries are after this new form of Financial Market, and we want to remain at the top.” “It is a major Industry, and we must protect it,” he added.Last month, Trump told reporters he was “not happy” with prediction markets and was “never much in favor” of them in response to a question about well-timed bets on the platforms on events linked to the Iran war, which has drawn the ire of several Democrats who have called for stricter measures.Trump, whose son Donald Trump Jr. is invested in and on the advisory board for Polymarket and is also an adviser to Kalshi, softened his stance on prediction markets days later, saying the US would “get left out in the cold” if it didn’t allow the platforms.

Stranded  - Markets laid in wait for war-related headlines yesterday after Trump truthed on Monday night that “negotiations with the Islamic Republic of Iran” were “proceeding nicely.” It’s also possible that “proceeding nicely” meant that the US was once again escalating to de-escalate, as hours later the US military confirmed reports of strikes against Iranian military assets, including speedboats which were laying mines in the Strait. While the news reel was sparsely populated, it did flag that the US Navy was restarting to guide ships through the Strait with a plan to help a dozen vessels through the passage in the coming days. However, minutes later a “US official” denied these claims, leaving traders, and vessels in the Strait, stranded. Brent crude oil climbed around $3.50 from open to $99.50/bbl.  A look at the current landscape suggests to us that a peace deal is far beyond the horizon. Rabobank’s global strategist, Michael Every, released a report, The Hormuz Odyssey: a new base case, which updates our base case to see complications in the Strait for around another three months. The possible outcomes of the war in Iran are immeasurable, but even in the pipe dream scenario where the war ends tomorrow, logistics are king. If a deal were to be magically achieved tomorrow, there are still somewhere around 1,500 ships still trapped in the Strait of Hormuz.The Strait is incredibly narrow and it will take time for these ships to safely pass through. Energy strategists Joe DeLaura and Florence Schmit elaborate on the implications for energy prices in their recent report, Longer Stalemate, Higher Prices. Needless to say, they project oil staying higher for longer, forecasting Brent averaging around $120/bbl in Q3 of this year, which would imply a return to levels still not seen since 2022To further complicate the outlook, the proxy war in the Middle East between Israel and Hezbollah has also re-escalated, with the IDF reporting that it hit over 100 Hezbollah sites in Southern Lebanon, including “storage facilities, command centers, and observation points.” This, of course, likely puts another obstacle in the way of Trump’s insistence that GCC members join the Abraham Accords and normalize relations with Israel as part of a broader peace deal. While many of the GCC states are no friend to Hezbollah, the implications of normalizing relations with Israel during elevated hostilities in the Levant are a political nightmare.US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, hinted that in his view, negotiations to end the war may “take a few days,” which is certainly more optimistic than our view of a few months. Nuclear programs will continue to stand as a major barrier towards any sense of an agreement between the US and Iran. Total regime change in might not be in the cards, but achieving a firm commitment from Iran that it promises to table its plans for nuclear development is the only way the US can exit the war and keep some of its street cred.But while nuclear proliferation is a major issue abroad, it may be presenting opportunities at home. The New York Times reports that the US government may allow private companies to use “Cold-War era plutonium from dismantled nuclear warheads” as fuel for nuclear power plants.US Treasury yields traded mostly flat from the open, across the yield curve, with a slight bull-steepening bias, and the DXY index was little changed at 99.19. The US 5-year, 30-year spread widened again, back to 84bp, bouncing off of 1-year lows of 81bp on Friday. The US OIS curve remains positioned firmly in favor of hikes, pricing in around 70% of a hike by year-end, and a full hike by March of next year.But the US consumer outlook remains grim. US Conference Board consumer confidence picked up a touch from 92.8 to 93.1, but remains firmly planted in negative territory. The components of the headline index—present situation and job outlook—have been trending consistently lower since 2021, while consumer expectations also remain in negative territory. While we should note that consumer confidence has been a poor indicator of economic performance for quite some time now, a poor consumer outlook coupled with a dire inflationary outlook could spell trouble for those at the lower end of the income spectrum. We will see headline and core PCE price data for April on Thursday, expected to register 3.8% y/y and 3.3% y/y, respectively.

Oil Prices Surge and Crypto Plummets Heavily After Escalating Regional Tensions -Oil prices surged by approximately 3% in global market trading on Thursday following military maneuvers in the Persian Gulf. Following the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) missile strike against U.S. bases in the region, Brent crude, the global benchmark, reached $97 per barrel in today's trading, reversing a decline of over 5% on Wednesday. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude stood above $91 per barrel. According to the IRGC's statement, following attacks by the U.S. military using aerial projectiles against a location on the outskirts of Bandar Abbas airport, the American airbase from which the attack originated was targeted in retaliation at 4:50 AM. Simultaneously with escalating tensions and rising oil prices, gold prices in Thursday's global market trading fell to their lowest level in two months, influenced by a strengthening U.S. dollar, rising oil prices, and mounting anxieties regarding inflation driven by increased energy costs. Fluctuations in the markets for other precious metals are also trending downward. The price of silver dropped by 3% to $72.37 per ounce. Platinum fell by 1.4% to $1,890.81 per ounce, and palladium decreased by 1.9% to $1,364.26 per ounce. The recent tensions have also driven investor flight from higher-risk commodity markets to its highest level in two and a half months. The escalation of geopolitical tensions in the region, combined with mounting concerns over oil supply and the exodus of investors from high-risk assets, has intensified selling pressure in the cryptocurrency market, dragging the crypto market down to its lowest level in two months. The crypto market has plummeted to its lowest level since mid-April, contrasting with previous weeks when the market experienced relative growth fueled by hopes of an end to the tensions. Bitcoin, which is considered the most prominent cryptocurrency in this market, dropped by 3.5% to $72,646, marking its lowest price in the past six weeks.

Trump Media faces $455M Bitcoin loss after $205M transfer - Trump Media's bitcoin holdings have dropped by $455 million in value, while the Trump family’s overall crypto losses exceed $1 billion. The company shifted 2,650 bitcoin worth $205 million to Crypto.com, its second large transfer in four months.Days earlier, Trump Media withdrew its spot bitcoin ETF application amid worsening market conditions for such products. In March 2025, Donald Trump hosted a cryptocurrency summit where he pledged to make the United States a leader in bitcoin. This public commitment marked a significant policy and investment stance by the president toward digital currency. Donald Trump sold holdings in Trump Media stock and bonds to finance large bitcoin acquisitions. This move reduced his ownership stake in Trump Media while reallocating capital into cryptocurrency. Trump Media is currently facing $455 million in unrealized losses from its Bitcoin holdings. These losses reflect the decline in the value of the cryptocurrency compared to the purchase prices paid by the company. Trump Media & Technology Group withdrew its application for a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund. Analysts attributed the withdrawal to poor sector economics rather than to regulatory obstacles. Eric Trump stated that the Trump family’s assets are held in a blind trust. He described the trust’s investments as being in broad market indexes. This characterization suggests a passive investment strategy without direct control over specific asset choices.

Bessent Now Says No CBDC Under Trump Administration - President Donald Trump’s administration has declared its stance on the creation of a U.S. central bank digital currency (CBDC). Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent formally ruled out such a move amid growing debate over financial surveillance, cryptocurrency regulation, and the future of digital payments in America. Speaking to reporters on Thursday, May 28, Secretary Bessent declared that the idea of a government-backed “digital dollar” has been taken “off the table”. He said the administration views a CBDC as a potential gateway to government monitoring of citizens’ financial activities, distancing the White House from proposals that the Federal Reserve and policymakers in Washington have explored for years. “This administration has been very clear there will be no central bank digital currency, which I think would be the first step toward tracking,” Bessent said. “So we have taken that off the table.” The Treasury Secretary made the remarks in response to a question about Americans’ concerns that future digital payment systems could be used to monitor spending habits or limit financial freedom. Bessent instead promoted the administration’s broader push to regulate privately issued digital assets and stablecoins through legislation currently moving through Congress. “We passed stablecoin legislation, which is bipartisan. And the CLARITY Act is now up on the Hill,” he said. “I think it has bipartisan support.” “The most important thing we can do is to make digital assets come into the United States, make the U.S. the home. Our regulation, our best practices are what will ensure good standards for these,” he added. Bessent further argued that many of the scandals and collapses associated with cryptocurrencies have occurred largely outside U.S. regulatory oversight. “When you look at digital assets, all the nonsense that happens, all the things you read about, that’s because it’s the wild, wild west offshore, so we’ve got to bring it onshore,” he said. “So I would encourage the House and the Senate to get CLARITY done.” The Federal Reserve has repeatedly emphasized that it has made no formal decision to launch a digital dollar. However, it has spent years researching the concept through various pilot initiatives and discussion papers. In February 2026, the Fed said it had been exploring “the potential benefits and risks of CBDCs from a variety of angles,” adding that its key focus was whether a CBDC could improve an “already safe and efficient” U.S. payment system. The central bank also noted that any potential CBDC would require support from both Congress and the executive branch before implementation.

U.S. regulator moves to withdraw $5 million penalty against Winklevoss' crypto exchange The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission asked a judge on Wednesday to vacate the agency’s $5 million penalty against a cryptocurrency exchange founded by twin brothers who donated to President Donald Trump’s election campaign in 2024. The CFTC said regulators should never have accused Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss’ Gemini Trust Company of making false statements in connection with its bitcoin futures business. Gemini settled the CFTC charges in January 2025 during the final weeks of President Joe Biden’s administration, paying a $5 million penalty and agreeing to an injunction that would prevent the company from making any false or misleading statements to the CFTC. But Gemini and the CFTC have now agreed that the settlement should be vacated, citing the CFTC’s changed policy on crypto enforcement under Trump. The Winklevoss brothers each donated $1 million in bitcoin to his election campaign in 2024. The CFTC and Gemini said in jointly filed court papers that the settlement should be rescinded and the CFTC had “resorted to inappropriate tactics” to bring a lawsuit and “extract a settlement from Gemini.” The CFTC and Gemini said that the agency, under the Biden administration, brought a lawsuit against Gemini based on a whistleblower account that was not credible, and that Gemini was actually the victim of a fraud by the company’s former chief operating officer and two customers who received fraudulent rebates from Gemini. Rather than investigating the fraud against Gemini, the CFTC investigated Gemini for making allegedly misleading statements about the integrity of its bitcoin futures trading business, according to the joint court filing. While the case was pending, regulators inappropriately leveraged their power by telling Gemini that it would not receive approval for a new prediction market platform while the CFTC’s enforcement action was pending, according to the court filing. Gemini received approval for its prediction market product, called Gemini Titan, in December 2025. It was not clear from the court filing whether Gemini would be refunded for the $5 million penalty, which it already paid. Gemini did not immediately respond to a request for comment late Wednesday. The Winklevoss twins first gained public prominence after suing Mark Zuckerberg, alleging he stole their idea for Facebook. They settled in 2008 for cash and stock. Trump’s initial pick to lead the CFTC, Brian Quintenz, accused Tyler Winklevoss last year of lobbying the White House to stall his nomination over the CFTC lawsuit. Trump ultimately withdrew his nomination of Quintenz and named Michael Selig as the CFTC’s new chair.

CFTC bid to vacate order against Winklevoss’ crypto exchange ‘very unusual’: ex-agency chief -- The move by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to vacate a consent order against the cryptocurrency exchange company Gemini Trust is “very unusual,” a former CFTC chair told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” on Thursday.Tim Massad, the former chair, also said he did not know details of the CFTC’s case against Gemini, which was founded by the Winklevoss twins, because it came after his tenure at the agency, but noted that during his tenure, the CFTC’s staff “only brought cases that were strong.”The CFTC on Wednesday asked a New York federal court judge to vacate the January 2025 order against Gemini, which included a $5 million penalty and an injunction that barred the company from making false statements to the agency. The order was implemented in the final weeks of President Joe Biden’s administration, and related to false statements that Gemini made in the second half of 2017 to the CFTC about a bitcoin futures contract.The CFTC is now run by Michael Selig, an appointee of President Donald Trump, whose 2024 election campaign received donations from the twins, Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss.. The $5 million already paid by Gemini would not be returned to the company if a judge signs off on the request that the consent order be lifted, according to the CFTC. “What I will say is that it’s very unusual for the CFTC to do this, to basically seek to vacate the judgment in a case that you brought,” Massad told CNBC. “And the second thing I would say is, in my experience, the CFTC enforcement division was very professional and acted with integrity and care,” he said. “There were a lot of people who were terrific public servants who made decisions based on the law and the facts, and they only brought cases that were strong on the merits.” Avi Perry, an attorney who represents Gemini in the CFTC case, told CNBC in a statement,“The facts speak for themselves. This case should have never been brought, and we are thankful that the CFTC has joined us in seeking to right this wrong.” The CFTC, in a statement on Wednesday, said that it had decided to seek a withdrawal of the consent order after “a comprehensive review” of the investigation led to the conclusion that “the complaint should not have been filed — and would not have been under current enforcement standards.” “Accordingly, the CFTC determined that continuing enforcement of the consent order’s prospective provisions serves neither the CFTC’s mission nor the public interest,” the agency said. “The parties are now jointly moving the court to vacate the consent order as to the prospective provision because the consent order’s non-prospective provisions, such as its imposition of a civil monetary penalty, have already been satisfied, and applying the remaining provisions — including injunctive relief — prospectively would not be equitable.”

FBI seizes $8B in crypto during Operation Blackout crackdown on scam compounds — The FBI says it has seized a record-setting $8 billion in cryptocurrency and arrested hundreds of suspects as part of an intercontinental crackdown on "scam compounds" and organized crime, including one group known as the "Democratic Karen Benevolent Army." They have been blamed for a global wave of theft from Americans, including as much as $3 million from a single U.S. citizen who fell victim to an online scam. The FBI confiscated more than 127,000 bitcoin during the arrest of one leader, Chen Zhi, the CEO of a Cambodian enterprise called the Prince Holding Group. That's worth more than $8 billion — possibly more than $15 billion a the time of seizure — and officials are calling it the largest forfeiture in the history of the U.S. government's history. The Democratic Karen Benevolent Army is an armed militia named after a region in Myanmar with alleged ties to the Chinese mob and currently facing sanctions from the U.S. Treasury for prior large scale scamming operations. It has been designated a transnational criminal organization by the government. More compounds in Asia, Africa and the Middle East have allegedly been tied to Chinese organized crime and were specifically targeting Americans, and operations to dismantle additional centers remain underway globally, an FBI official told Fox News Digital Thursday. "Scam compounds are not just call centers. They are organized criminal enterprises built to steal from Americans, launder money, and exploit people at scale," FBI Director Kash Patel said in a statement to Fox News Digital. "The FBI has been leading the charge, from taking down Prince Group in Cambodia to Operation Sand Dollar in Dubai. We helped free nearly 2,000 trafficked workers, shut down more than $8 billion in scam center fraud, and arrested nearly 300 people," Patel said. "If you target Americans, we will find you, disrupt your network, and bring every available tool of the federal government down on you." In Thailand, photos show the FBI seized thousands of smartphones, as well as office equipment from an operation there. In Dubai, local police and the FBI arrested 275 people, six of whom will be extradited to the United States to face federal charges, the FBI said. Each of the nine compounds raided there were allegedly taking in $6 million in fraud proceeds a year. The Prince Group is accused of running similar guarded compounds around the world, authorities said. Zhi faces federal charges of wire fraud and money laundering conspiracy. An FBI official told Fox News Digital that the bureau has been prioritizing crackdown on these groups for the past 12 months. The official said the $3 million case involved one person who was the victim of a romance scheme, noting that other fraud schemes have been linked to several suicides, historically including extortion cases that were mostly targeting teenagers. Some of the groups allegedly relied on human trafficking victims for labor, according to the bureau. Scammers often entice individuals with promises of good income and work visas to lure them into the scam operations, then force them to conduct scams by threat of beatings or other torture methods. The FBI partnered with Starlink, providing the Elon Musk-owned satellite company with geolocation data to help identify scammers using Starlink terminals to engage in fraud. Through the partnership, Starlink suspended more than 7,000 terminals in Myanmar, according to the bureau. The operation sprung from a series of complaints the FBI's Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3) received in 2025. Over the course of the year, IC3 received nearly 72,000 complaints detailing losses of more than $7.5 billion related to cryptocurrency investment fraud. The FBI estimates those figures wildly underrepresent actual losses.

UK Targets Kremlin-Linked Crypto Network In Latest Sanctions Round -  The United Kingdom has unveiled a fresh package of sanctions against Russian financial structures that use crypto and offshore payment routes to sidestep restrictions imposed after the invasion of Ukraine.  The measures focus on the Kremlin-backed A7 network, a ruble-based settlement system, and a cluster of exchanges and firms that route payments through Kyrgyzstan and Georgia.Announced by Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper, the package covers 18 new designations that target what London describes as the backbone of Russia’s illicit finance channels. Officials say the list includes a Kyrgyz bank suspected of handling A7 flows, a major global cryptocurrency exchange that has sent more than 1.5 billion dollars to entities close to the Kremlin, and three Georgian companies that run Russia-focused trading platforms.The A7 network has emerged as a central hub in Russia’s attempts to blunt the impact of Western sanctions on its war economy. Investigations by independent researchers describe A7 as a cross-border settlement platform that uses a ruble-backed token, branded A7A5, and links to Promsvyazbank, a state lender that supports the Russian defense sector.   According to the UK government, A7 claims to have moved more than 90 billion dollars during the past year, a sum that officials say approaches half of Russia’s annual military spending.  Separate journalistic probes have found that A7-connected wallets and entities handle a significant share of cross-border transfers for sanctioned oligarchs and state-linked businesses. The crackdown lands at a moment when Russia’s own forecasts show a weaker outlook for growth under sanctions pressure. This month the Economy Ministry cut its 2026 growth projection to 0.4 percent from 1.3 percent and reduced the estimate for 2027 from 2.8 percent to 1.4 percent, an admission that extended war spending and trade limits weigh on expansion. Western authorities and crypto analytics firms have flagged crypto as a key tool in Russia’s effort to replace severed bank links. Research into related platforms such as A7A5 and exchanges that serve Russian users has traced billions of dollars in stablecoin and token flows that bypass traditional banking checks, much of it through venues in Central Asia and the Caucasus.Cooper framed the new sanctions as part of a broader drive to hit the financial lifelines of Moscow’s war machine and close off safe havens for enablers of the invasion. She said the UK would keep working with allies to expose, disrupt and dismantle the structures that move money and goods for Russian forces.Since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022, Britain has sanctioned more than 3,300 individuals, companies and vessels linked to the Kremlin, from banks and energy giants to defense suppliers.The government estimates that international sanctions have stripped more than 450 billion dollars from Russia’s economy, a loss equal to an estimated two years of funding for its war against Ukraine.

Employee at Crestwood gas mart spots red flags, calls police to save woman from $7,000 crypto scam- An 82-year-old woman was almost the victim of a $7,000 Bitcoin scam. An employee at the Watson Gas Mart in Crestwood reportedly called police after overhearing the woman preparing to send $7,000 via a Bitcoin transaction while on the phone with someone claiming to be from Apple Support. The responding officer intervened before the transaction was completed and helped the woman disconnect from the scammer. Authorities said that the suspect kept calling back after the call was ended. Police said that they learned the woman had already lost $4,000 earlier in the day after the scammer directed her to buy gift cards at a Lowe’s store. “This incident at the Watson Gas Mart is why we are working to educate both residents and businesses about fraud prevention,” said Business Resource Officer Matt Hill. “The employee recognized the warning signs, contacted police, and helped prevent this resident from losing thousands more dollars. Their actions made a real difference.” The City of Crestwood launched a fraud prevention initiative in response to a rise in cases impacting local businesses and resources in April 2026.

SEC's Atkins touts coordination with CFTC - The Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Paul Atkins said Friday that the agency is working closely with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to create a more unified regulatory framework.

• Key takeaway: Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Paul Atkins highlighted the agency's coordination efforts with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and outlined plans to make it easier for firms to make Initial Public Offerings.
• Expert quote: "After decades of fragmented oversight and overlapping authorities, CFTC Chairman Mike Selig and I have ushered in a new era of harmonization between our two agencies, replacing what I call a regulatory no man's land with fertile ground for innovation." — SEC Chair Paul Atkins
• What's at stake: The SEC has been working to tailor regulations to reduce burdens on firms, in line with other financial regulators.

Atkins said his agency and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission are working together to usher in a friendlier regulatory environment for technology and crypto firms, a marked departure from the interagency dynamic under President Biden.

At Last Minute, SEC Suddenly Delays Plan To Allow Crypto Versions Of US Stocks  - The Securities and Exchange Commission has pumped the brakes on its highly anticipated “innovation exemption” for tokenized stocks, pushing back the release of the framework as it weighs input from traditional stock exchanges and other market participants wary of the plan’s sweeping implications, according to Bloomberg reporting.  The SEC, under Chair Paul Atkins, was preparing to release the so-called innovation exemption as soon as this week. The framework would create a new regulatory pathway allowing digital tokens linked to publicly traded company shares to trade on decentralized crypto platforms — 24 hours a day, seven days a week — bypassing the constraints of traditional stock exchanges. The exemption is part of Atkins’ broader “Project Crypto” initiative, which aims to relax existing crypto restrictions in line with the Trump administration’s pro-crypto agenda.The SEC was reportedly leaning toward permitting third-party tokens — digital representations of stocks like Apple, Nvidia, or Tesla — to be issued and traded without the consent of the underlying public companies. This means outside actors, not the issuers themselves, could create blockchain-based wrappers tracking a company’s share price and list them on decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. These tokens may not carry traditional shareholder rights like voting or dividends, though the SEC is reportedly considering requiring platforms to provide those rights or risk delisting. The timing of the exemption’s release has been pushed back as the agency weighs feedback from stock-exchange officials and other market participants who met with SEC staff in recent days.  The World Federation of Exchanges — whose members include Nasdaq, Cboe, and CME Group — previously warned the SEC in a November 2025 letter that such exemptions could “dilute” existing investor protections and “distort” competition by giving crypto exchanges a regulatory shortcut unavailable to traditional markets. The group cautioned that granting legitimacy to tokenized stocks before full compliance implementation would “undoubtedly have negative — potentially acute — consequences” for U.S. markets.The tokenization debate is unfolding against a backdrop of competing visions for the future of U.S. equity markets. Nasdaq, which received SEC approval in March 2026 for its own tokenized securities proposal, is pursuing a different model: one that keeps all trades on-exchange with full shareholder rights intact, built on the DTCC’s enterprise blockchain. The innovation exemption, by contrast, would sanction a parallel, crypto-native market running alongside the existing system — potentially fragmenting liquidity across dozens of third-party token issuers for the same underlying stock.

SEC proposal pulls the plug on climate disclosures - The Securities and Exchange Commission issued a proposal Friday to undo Biden-era requirements that publicly traded companies provide a yearly accounting of their climate risks and mitigation strategies.The SEC in a statement called the 2024 climate disclosure rule “overly burdensome and costly” and said it was inconsistent with the commission’s commitment to focus on “its core mandate.”“SEC disclosure obligations should comply with the Commission’s statutory authority, be guided by materiality as the North Star, avoid the practical effect of dictating corporate behavior, and be imposed only when the expected benefits justify the likely costs and burdens,” said SEC Chair Paul Atkins in a statement on the draft rule’s release.The SEC will take public comment on its proposal for 60 days after it is published in the Federal Register.

BankThink: Crypto still has a serious trust problem that companies must address - Crypto's trust problem is often framed as a knowledge gap. (See Bank Survey Graphic: Is your institution enabling customer transactions with any of the following types of digital currencies or assets?  Is your institution enabling customer transactions with any of the following types of digital currencies or assets? Currently offered or piloting OR Planned within 12 months?

• Key insight: People don't distrust crypto because they fail to understand it. They distrust it because they've seen how it behaves under pressure.
• What's at stake:  Collapsed exchanges. Frozen withdrawals. Wallets drained without recourse. Systems that worked — until they didn't.
• Forward look: The next phase of financial innovation will be shaped by institutions that understand a simple principle: Trust is not built through speed, complexity or technical sophistication alone. It is built through clarity, consistency, and the quiet work of making systems understandable and dependable under stress.

Consumers don't mistrust crypto products because they don't understand the technology behind them. They mistrust them because they have seen them fail under pressure. The path forward will be slow and incremental.

BankThink: Crypto tried to digitize trust, and failed. Now what? --A decade ago New York state did something bold. The Department of Financial Services designed a special kind of limited trust charter for crypto firms, called the BitLicense. It held them to the standards of a trust company, but carved out some specialized rules and regulations to take into account the different nature of these businesses.The crypto industry thought it could do trust better than the banks, found out it couldn't and realized it needs rules to guarantee trust.

Why trust charters brought crypto companies into the fold –- The wave of applications by digital asset firms for national trust charters in recent years — reversing years of perceived resistance by the crypto industry to traditional finance — is a confluence of several factors, experts say, including more benefits to obtaining charters, a crypto-friendly regulatory environment and a softening of anti-establishment attitudes.

• Key insight: Trust charters offer simpler nationally applicable regulatory structure and preemption, without things like bank capital, deposit insurance or consolidated supervision.
• Supporting data: More than a dozen firms have applied for national trust charters, and the OCC has approved at least nine since the beginning of the second Trump administration. 
• Expert quote: "That idealism was, frankly, always bullshit. In the middle of 2021, I was like, 'Yeah, they're just trying to merge with digital finance.' That narrative has always been a smokescreen for all but a few very dedicated cyber libertarians." — Hilary Allen, American University's Washington School of Law

Cryptocurrency companies have rushed to apply for national trust charters from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency during the second Trump administration after remaining on the sidelines for years. Experts say the trust charters offer them scale, Fed access and legitimacy without the full regulatory burden of traditional banks.

Coinbase relaunches direct deposit option - Coinbase has officially reopened direct deposits for its customers.

• Key insight: Coinbase officially relaunched its direct deposit service for users to auto-invest in digital assets from their paychecks.
• What's at stake: Banks could face competition for direct deposits from fintechs like Coinbase, even as the exchange is pursuing a trust bank charter.
• Expert quote: "An increasing number of consumers are willing to treat exchanges and fintechs such as Coinbase as their primary financial platform." —Javelin's Joel Hugentobler.

The crypto exchange, which closed its original direct deposit service in late 2024, has brought it back for users to set up automated digital asset investing.

Why it's worth it for Jack Dorsey to make nice with stablecoins -Block CEO Jack Dorsey has long touted bitcoin as central to the future of digital money and has taken a dim view of stablecoins, an opinion that's not stopping the company from supporting the crypto alternative.

• Key insight: Bitcoin bull Block is adding support for stablecoins via Cash App transfers. 
• What's at stake: Rivals such as PayPal, Stripe and the card networks are also building stablecoin products. 
• Forward look: Block may use easy stablecoin conversions to enhance spendable balances for consumer customers, potentially increasing usage of Cash App for payments.

Block's CEO is more bullish on bitcoin, but stablecoins add another option for the payment company's users to build their spendable balances while furthering the company's super app ambitions.

BankThink The IMF is right about tokenization, but still misses the point  - A recent note from the International Monetary Fund highlights tokenization as a structural shift in financial architecture; it reconfigures trust, settlement and risk management to the benefit of investors and issuers, but in their view also risks amplifying financial instability. Graphic: State of tokenized offerings. Number of banks in sample with each level of capability progress. Source: American Banker research of the top 50 banks by U.S. assets as of Q4 earnings calls.

• Key insight: Tokenization improves how markets operate by making settlements faster, increasing their mobility, boosting transparency and expanding access.
• What's at stake: According to the IMF, tokenization risks amplifying financial instability.
• Forward look: Over time, it will change how assets are held and moved, even within compliant frameworks.

Tokenization is being adopted from within the system, not alongside it. It's improving how markets operate by making settlements faster, increasing their mobility, boosting transparency and expanding access.

Report: Private credit opacity poses risk to financial system -- The rapid growth and opaque nature of private credit could pose risks to the broader financial system, according to a May report from the Basel, Switzerland-based Financial Stability Board.

• Key takeaway: The private credit market, with an estimated size of $1.5 to $2 trillion, poses a challenge to regulators tasked with monitoring the sector because data collection is fragmented or locked behind paywalls. 
• Expert quote: "This web of interlinkages may create challenges for banks in effectively managing their direct and indirect risks. Fragmented oversight increases the difficulty of identifying and addressing risks that may arise from these interlinkages." — Financial Stability Board.
• What's at stake: Interconnectedness between banks and the private credit market through complex funding structures can create spillover risks in an event of a downturn.

The report from the Financial Stability Board said limited transparency in the private credit market makes it difficult for regulators to monitor and understand risks, potentially masking challenges to the financial system.

Merchants ask OCC to reverse swipe fee preemption - The Merchants Payments Coalition urged the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency on Friday to withdraw its recent move to nullify state-level swipe fee bans.

• Key insight: A trade group representing retailers says the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency rule wrongfully shields credit card operators and banks from oversight imposed by states.
• Supporting data: Merchants paid nearly $200 billion in interchange fees last year.
• Forward look: An appeals court ruling on Illinois' 2024 swipe fee law is expected by mid-June, and Colorado Gov. Jared Polis, a Democrat, has a similar law awaiting his signature.

Retailers say the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency's move to preempt an Illinois law undermines states' powers to curb interchange fees charged in their jurisdictions and perpetuates a system that raises costs for businesses and consumers.

CFPB ends telework in a move that could cut staff further -- The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is ending remote work and ordering its entire staff to report to a new Washington, D.C., headquarters five days a week.

Why an FHA rule for nonborrowing spouses is making waves now - Federal Housing Administration rules in certain states can add a challenge for lower income couples with one spouse who has a credit issue, and a real estate group wants to remove that extra hurdle. Homebuyers applying for Federal Housing Administration loans in community property states are facing hurdles that current market conditions have heightened.

FHA adds automation for spot approvals on condos  - The Federal Housing Administration has announced that it has taken steps to streamline its case number assignment process for spot approvals on condo units.  The streamlining is designed to further expedite a process which allows mortgage companies to get a case number for loans on single units even if the building they're in doesn't have one.

Home Refi Activity Plummets As Mortgage Rates Hit 9-Month Highs  -- Refinancing activity in the U.S. housing market plummeted last week as mortgage rates hit their highest level in nine months, new industry data released on May 27 show.  Refinancing decreased by 18 percent for the week ending May 22 and is up by 19 percent from the same time a year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. “Many borrowers understandably backed away from refinancing last week,” Joel Kan, the firm’s vice president and deputy chief economist, said in a statement.The decline was largely driven by the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rising by 30 basis points over the past five weeks to 6.65 percent - the highest level since August 2025. As Andrew Moran reports for The Epoch Times, activity to refinance home loans was spread across the board. Conventional refinance applications fell by 14 percent, Federal Housing Agency applications dropped 18 percent, and Veterans’ Affairs applications tumbled 34 percent. Overall, refinance loans accounted for 38 percent of all mortgage applications, the smallest share in nearly a year. But purchase applications also slipped from the previous week, sliding by almost 9 percent. “Purchase applications were slightly lower across all loan types but still ran at a stronger pace than last year’s pace,” Kan said.  “The average loan size for a purchase application reached another survey high at $473,600, as borrowers with smaller loan sizes were less active given the higher rate environment and its negative impact on their purchasing power.” Meanwhile, the Federal Housing Finance Agency reported on May 26 that single-family home prices backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac rose by 0.1 percent in March, up from a downwardly revised 0.1 percent drop in February.  Mortgage rates, which generally track long-dated U.S. Treasury yields, have accelerated since the war in Iran began in late February, driven by renewed war-driven inflation risks.The main benchmark 10-year yield reached a one-year high of 4.66 percent last week. The 30-year climbed to 5.18 percent, its highest level since the global financial crisis.Modest relief could be on the way amid increasing optimism that the United States and Iran are inching closer to establishing a peace deal.Yields have eased by approximately 20 basis points over the past week, translating into lower rates for homeowners and prospective homebuyers.As of May 27, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dipped to 6.61 percent, but the gap between current rates and the effective (aggregate) rates that Americans are currently carrying on their homes remains vast...How long this trend lasts depends on what happens between Washington and Tehran, says Jeff DerGurahian, head economist at loanDepot.  “But with geopolitical tensions still front and center and inflation expectations starting to pick back up, the outlook remains uncertain,” DerGurahian said in a note emailed to The Epoch Times.“Until there’s more clarity, rates are likely to stay sensitive to headlines, with the direction from here tied closely to how events unfold overseas.” Inflation data could also play a role in both the broader financial markets and monetary policy. A de-escalation in the three-month-old Middle East conflict could help mitigate medium- and long-term inflation pressures. But the length of persistent inflation could hang over the Federal Reserve.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 0.7% year-over-year in March - S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for March ("March" is a 3-month average of January, February and March closing prices). January closing prices include some contracts signed in November, so there is a significant lag to this data. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA). The National index decreased 0.22% month-over-month (MoM) seasonally adjusted, On the FHFA index: U.S. House Prices Rise 1.7 Percent Year over Year; Up 0.5 percent Quarter over Quarter   U.S. house prices rose 1.7 percent between the first quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, according to the U.S. Federal Housing (FHFA) House Price Index (FHFA HPI^®). House prices for the first quarter of 2026 rose 0.5 percent compared to the fourth quarter of 2025. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted monthly index for March rose 0.1 percent from February. …Seven of the nine census divisions had positive house price changes year-over-year. The East North Central division recorded the strongest appreciation, posting a 4.4 percent increase from the first quarter of 2025 to the first quarter of 2026. The West South Central division recorded a 0.7 percent decline. Here is a graph from the FHFA report comparing the annual change by region for March 2026 and 2025.  As expected, we are seeing significant regional differences with year-over-year price changes ranging from a 5.1% increase to a 0.9% decrease.  Case-Shiller Index Reports Annual Gain in March 2026

• The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index posted a 0.7% annual gain for March 2026, down from a 0.8% rise in the previous month.
• More than half of major U.S. metropolitan markets posted year-over-year price declines in March, with Seattle (-2.5%) displacing Denver as the weakest market and Chicago (6.1%) remaining the strongest.
• For the 10th consecutive month, inflation outpaced national home price appreciation, with March CPI running 2.6 percentage points above the 0.7% annual gain, extending the streak of negative real home price returns. ...

“More than half of the 20 major U.S. housing markets recorded year-over-year price declines in March, reflecting a broadening and deepening housing slowdown,”  “The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller National Home Price Index edged up just 0.7% in March from a year earlier, decelerating from February’s 0.8% rate. With consumer inflation accelerating to roughly 3.3% in March, U.S. home values have now fallen in real terms for the 10th consecutive month, underscoring an ongoing erosion of inflation-adjusted housing wealth.  “Midwest and Northeast markets are sustaining modest growth, while much of the Sun Belt and Western regions are still seeing declines. Chicago led all cities with a 6.1% annual gain, followed by New York (4.0%) and Cleveland (3.0%). In contrast, Seattle’s 2.5% year-over-year decline was the steepest in March, with Denver (-2.0%), Tampa (-1.9%), Dallas (-1.7%), and Phoenix (-1.6%) joining Seattle among the weakest performers. Even Los Angeles (-1.6%) and Washington (-0.1%) turned negative. The spread between the strongest and weakest markets – 8.6 percentage points, from Chicago’s +6.1% to Seattle’s -2.5% – highlights how localized this housing cycle has become. (Detroit’s March reading remains unavailable due to local transaction data delays.) This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

Consumer credit demand wanes as Iran war drags on - Prolonged conflict in the Middle East could soon lead to a pullback in borrowing, according to a key consumer confidence report released Tuesday.

• Key insight: Consumers are pulling back on big ticket purchases as rising inflation raises concerns about the economic outlook. This is the first decline in the Consumer Confidence Index since the start of the war in Iran.
• Expert quote: "Given the current pricing pressures, we would have expected a more dramatic decline in confidence. However, consumers feel the employment situation will improve by the end of the year." — Jeffrey Roach, Chief Economist, LPL Financial.
• Forward Look: A decline in consumer confidence is often associated with reduced demand for credit and lower overall economic activity. Whether this comes to pass will depend largely on how long the conflict in the Middle East persists and how long it takes for energy prices to recover.

Households are cutting back on spending and buying fewer big ticket items, according to a key consumer confidence report. Higher inflation expectations and recession concerns are driving the pullback.

Doing The Math: UC Faculty Urges Return To Standardized Testing After Shocking Decline In Skills  by Jonathan Turley, Years ago, I wrote a column denouncing the decision of the University of California system to drop standardized testing in the cause of greater racial diversity. Now, hundreds of UC mathematics faculty have called for a return to such testing after reports showing a thirtyfold increase in students with math skills below high school level.As written earlier, the University of California system was an early supporter of this disastrous move.It was heralded as a way to preserve diversity after voters in California repeatedly rejected race-based admissions and the Supreme Court appeared ready to bar such practices (commonly proven with reference to standardized test differentials among applicants). Now, many professors in the California system have come to the same conclusion as some of us who denounced the move years ago. They have witnessed the drop in academic skills and abilities among incoming students.These tests not only have the most significant predictive value for performance but also play an important role in the advancement of minority students. Former University of California President Janet Napolitano, however, overrode those conclusions.Napolitano responded to such criticism with a Standardized Testing Task Force in 2019. Many people expected the task force to recommend the cessation of standardized testing. The task force did find that 59 percent of high school graduates were Latino, African-American or Native American but only 37 percent were admitted as UC freshman students.The Task Force did not find standardized testing to be unreliable or call for its abandonment, however.Instead, its final report concluded that “At UC, test scores are currently better predictors of first-year GPA than high school grade point average (HSGPA), and about as good at predicting first-year retention, [University] GPA, and graduation.”Not only that, it found: “Further, the amount of variance in student outcomes explained by test scores has increased since 2007 … Test scores are predictive for all demographic groups and disciplines … In fact, test scores are better predictors of success for students who are Underrepresented Minority Students (URMs), who are first generation, or whose families are low-income.”In other words, test scores remain the best indicator for continued performance in college.   That clearly was not the result Napolitano or some others wanted.So, she simply announced a cessation of the use of such scores in admissions.The system would go to a “test-blind” system until it developed its own test.Ending standardized testing had an obvious secondary purpose: to frustrate new legal challenges to the use of race in college admissions.Last November, Californians rejected a resolution to restore affirmative action in college admissions.We have also seen the dismal decline in standards at elite universities like Harvard, where faculty have been compelled to teach high school-level math classes to students.Various schools have now reversed this ridiculous move pushed by faculty and administrators in the cause of racial diversity. The proponents of the change, such as Napolitano, have said little after they decimated the academic integrity and standing of their schools.The UC faculty cited the UC San Diego Senate–Administration Workgroup on Admissions report, which found that 70 percent of these students are performing below a middle-school level. Like Harvard, faculty are now teaching high-school-level math.The declining performance reflects the failure of our public schools, which have also lowered graduation standards. The top-spending public school districts are also some of the worst-performing districts. Instead of addressing the failure to educate kids in these communities, the push was to eliminate testing itself. As I wrote in 2021, “The deficiencies will remain — but the ability to expose them will be gone.” Those deficiencies are not evident in applications and admissions, but they are clearly manifesting themselves in classes.

Trump regime sues UCLA over anti-Semitism claims amid crackdown on pro-Palestine activism -- The administration of US President Donald Trump has filed a lawsuit against University of California Los Angeles (UCLA), alleging the university failed to protect Jewish students during pro-Palestine protests linked to Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza. The US Department of Justice’s Civil Rights Division filed a lawsuit against UCLA on Tuesday, alleging that the university violated Title VI of federal civil rights law by allowing what it called a hostile environment for Jewish students and faculty members. The lawsuit focused heavily on a pro-Palestine encampment established on UCLA’s campus in April 2024 during nationwide student protests condemning Israel’s genocidal military campaign in Gaza, which triggered global outrage over mass civilian casualties and the destruction of Palestinian neighborhoods, hospitals, and universities. The Trump administration alleged that Jewish students were harassed and blocked from parts of campus during the demonstrations. Critics of the administration say such allegations are increasingly being used to suppress anti-Israel protests and silence opposition to Washington’s continued support for Israel. “Universities have an obligation to maintain safe and inclusive campuses for all students,” said William Essayli, the first assistant US attorney for the Central District of California. “Universities that violate our nation’s civil rights laws by repeatedly failing to shield Jewish students from anti-Semitism will be held accountable.” UCLA Chancellor Julio Frenk rejected the allegations, saying the institution had taken multiple steps to address tensions on campus while protecting freedom of expression. He explained that UCLA had appointed an associate vice chancellor for campus and community safety, reorganized its civil rights office, assigned a Title VI officer, and strengthened policies related to campus security and free speech.

FDA vaccine advisers recommend XFG variant as target for fall’s updated COVID vaccines -  This fall’s updated COVID-19 vaccines should target the SARS-CoV-2 XFG variant, the US Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA’s) Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) said yesterday.At the meeting, the first since FDA Commissioner Marty Makary, MD, MPH, resigned earlier this month, Natalie Thornburg, PhD, of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC’s) respiratory division, said XFG is a hybrid of two Omicron subvariants and has mutations linked to immune escape. As of April 11, the most recent date with available CDC variant data, XFG strains make up just over half of circulating variants in the United States.Vaccine makers Moderna and Sanofi discussed data on mice research suggesting that vaccines targeting XFG trigger higher antibody concentrations against circulating SARS-CoV-2 strains than Pfizer’s and Moderna’s current LP.8.1-targeting vaccines. Earlier this month, the World Health Organization Advisory Group on COVID-19 Vaccine Composition recommended that vaccines target the LP.8.1 variant but said that XFG, NB.1.8.1, or other variants could also be used.The recommendation now goes to the FDA, which is expected to allow vaccine manufacturers to start producing doses for the fall and winter respiratory illness season.

Better prepandemic heart health may help prevent severe COVID - Adults with healthier hearts before the pandemic were nearly half as likely to have severe COVID-19 than those with poorer heart health, suggests a study published in the Journal of the American Heart Association. Researchers from the University of Vermont at Burlington led the study of nearly 30,000 participants without prepandemic cardiovascular disease from March 2020 to February 2023. The team fielded two questionnaires, conducted event surveillance, and tested blood samples to identify COVID-19 infections and evaluate associations between severe illness and the American Heart Association’s (AHA’s) Life Essential 8 (LE8) metrics.  The average participant age was 66.1 years, 61% were women, 35% were White, 34% were Hispanic, and 22% were Black. “Cardiovascular disease is a risk factor for severe COVID‐19 (ie, hospitalization or death),” the study authors noted. “Whether better cardiovascular health (CVH) is associated with lower risk of severe COVID‐19 among adults without cardiovascular disease is unknown.” During the study period, 681 severe COVID-19 infections were reported. Adults with high LE8 scores (80 to 100, indicating robust CVH) were at 46% lower risk of COVID-19 hospitalization or death than those with low scores (less than 50). For every 14-point rise in LE8 score, the risk of a poor outcome was 20% lower. Higher scores for the LE8 components of greater physical activity, healthier weight, optimal blood pressure, and good sleep patterns were each tied to a lower risk of severe infection.

Century-long analysis of biosafety incidents identifies strongest predictors of outbreaks, deaths - A new analysis of more than a century of laboratory biosafety incidents found that disease outbreaks are closely linked to operational failures, lab settings, and type of personnel involved. The findings also suggest that deaths associated with accidental lab exposures were driven largely by the virulence of the organisms involved. For the study, published this week in the Journal of Infection, researchers led by a team at the Mahidol University in Bangkok, Thailand, analyzed 1,126 laboratory-associated incidents worldwide from 1900 to 2025. The researchers identified 148 outbreaks and 81 related fatalities. Personnel type was a main factor in determining if a biosafety event turned into an outbreak. Microbiologists (odds ratio [OR], 0.1), lab techs (OR, 0.2), and veterinarians and support staff (OR, 0.3) were less likely than clinicians to be involved in incidents that triggered outbreaks. The strongest overall predictor of outbreak risk was the cause of the incident. Causes most often associated with outbreaks included failures to fully inactivate dangerous pathogens before handling them (OR, 99.8), leaks involving wastewater or infectious aerosols (OR, 5.9), and poor decontamination or waste handling (OR, 4.4). The researchers also found that certain lab activities carried different levels of risk. Handling animals increased the chances of an outbreak (OR, 3.8), while antibody testing and routine sample processing were linked to lower risk. Lab type also mattered. Clinical (OR, 2.5) and academic (OR, 3.5) labs were more likely than research labs to experience outbreaks. Biosafety level (BSL) 2 and 3 facilities were protective in multivariate logistic regression analyses, but BSL was deemed of low import. The type of pathogen had a limited influence on outbreaks. Fungal pathogens were linked to lower outbreak risk than viruses, while higher-risk pathogens showed only weak links to outbreak risk. Fatal outcomes were strongly tied to pathogen characteristics, including risk level and type. Deaths were especially linked to work involving prions (OR, 189.9), which are infectious agents that lead to fatal neurodegenerative diseases; or RG4 pathogens (OR, 32.4) such as Ebola virus, which can cause lethal human diseases. The biggest factor in determining whether an incident turned deadly was the type of lab accident. Compared with needlestick injuries, for example, the strongest links to fatal outcomes were failures to fully inactivate dangerous pathogens before handling them (OR, 148.2) and leaks involving wastewater or infectious aerosols (OR, 64.9). Ineffective use of personal protective equipment was also strongly linked to fatal outcomes (OR, 18.2). The second biggest factor in predicting incident-related deaths was personnel type. Microbiologists and technicians were more often linked with fatalities than were clinicians.

US nears 2,000 measles cases as scientists note brain inflammation, pneumonia in hospital cases - The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) today confirmed 31 new measles cases in a nationwide outbreak that has now reached 1,983 infections, as experts describe sometimes-serious symptoms that can warrant hospital stays, including brain inflammation and pneumonia. All but nine of the US infections are locally acquired, with the rest related to international travel. The total for all of last year was 2,288 confirmed cases.The agency reported a new measles outbreak, for a total of 30 outbreaks. The nation saw 48 outbreaks for the entire year in 2025.Of this year’s cases, 21% involve children younger than 5 years, and 72% involve kids and young adults up to 19 years. Among all 2026 patients, 92% have been unvaccinated or have an unknown vaccination status. Six percent of patients this year have been hospitalized, compared with 11% last year.No measles deaths have been reported this year, compared with three last yearAccording to the CDC measles map, South Carolina has recorded the most cases so far this year, at 669, but its outbreak is now over. Utah is next, with 484 cases—although the Utah health department lists 476, just two more than last week. The state recorded eight new cases the previous week and 10 the week before, for a three-week total of 20.Texas has 182 cases, and Florida 139, four of them new, according to the CDC map.“Fortunately, the outbreak in our region does appear to be slowing,” said Andrew Pavia, MD, chief of pediatric infectious diseases at the University of Utah. He was part of a media briefing this week sponsored by the Infectious Diseases Society of America (IDSA). “Although the outbreak was initially centered in a tightly knit community on the border [with Arizona], it spread to involve the entire state of Utah. Just over 90% of measles cases were in people who were unvaccinated or at unknown status.“Two-thirds of the patients were adults older than 18, and one third were children. These included 23 children under 1 year of age. Those who are too young to be vaccinated depend on community protection. We've had 12 cases of measles among pregnant women.“Fifty-four, or 8% of our patients, were hospitalized for more than 24 hours, but many, many more were seen and treated in emergency departments. The hospitalized patients we've seen have been quite sick. Some have developed manifestations of brain inflammation or encephalitis, with confusion or brain fog. Some have had pneumonia as a complication of measles.”The potential seriousness of the disease is also highlighted in a report yesterday in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, with the authors noting a 72% rate of pneumonia in hospitalized patients.  Ruth Lynfield, MD, Minnesota state epidemiologist, said, “We are worried about measles because it is so contagious, and for some people, it can result in severe disease and complications, including severe dehydration, pneumonia, encephalitis or brain inflammation, and even death. Measles can attack immune memory cells and may increase susceptibility to other infections for a period of time after the acute measles infection.  “People at high risk for complications include infants and those who are immunocompromised. A person who is pregnant is at high risk for severe disease, including pneumonia. But there is also a higher risk of miscarriage, stillbirth, low birth weight and prematurity for the baby.”

Ebola: The disease of compassion, and the price of when “we” became “me”   --Katelyn Jetelina | Your Local Epidemiologist -The outbreak in Central Africa continues to spread. The latest figures of more than 160 deaths and 600 suspected cases almost certainly represent a significant undercount, and the trajectory remains deeply concerning. For those of us in the U.S., the personal risk remains low, but the toll on the region is severe. Ebola is often called the disease of compassion by experts like Dr. Craig Spencer. It spreads through direct contact with bodily fluids, which means it spreads when a family member tends to the sick, when a nurse stays at the bedside, or when a community gathers to bury their dead. In other words, it’s spread through acts of care. But the phrase has been sitting differently lately because this outbreak is spreading not only through compassion but also through the global withdrawal of it. It’s impossible to ignore the quiet (or not-so-quiet) shift from “we” to “me” over the past several years (decades?), now contributing, to some extent, to a body count. Over the past several years (decades?), a tug-of-war battle has been taking place between individualism and collective responsibility, becoming one of the defining tensions in American identity. It’s not too hard to understand why. When systems fail people, like through crushing health care costs, stagnant wages, lack of accountability, and governments captured by private interests, people stop trusting those systems. If no one is coming to save you, you learn to save yourself. Sprinkle in profit and power grabs amid the vulnerability of division and isolation, and… here we are. This personal survival instinct became a governing philosophy, then policy. Fields like public health, which have been built on the basic assumption that society as a whole values a collective approach, have been intentionally targeted. This thinking became so dominant, in fact, that people cheered when a chainsaw was taken to USAID—an organization that built clinics, trained health workers, funded labs, and supported rapid response teams in the places where outbreaks begin. Ebola is one of the first outbreaks unfolding in the aftermath of cutting this global health funding. The prevailing idea is that what happens on the other side of the world has nothing to do with us. But this idea is a myth, especially when it comes to diseases, for three main reasons:

1. Americans are impacted by this Ebola outbreak directly, as they are being flown to another country to seek care.
2. We live in an interconnected world bound together by supply chains, air travel corridors, and accelerating disease spillovers from animals to humans. No wall can stop a pathogen, and neither can a travel ban.
3. The stakes are also economic. For example, when the U.S. invests in global health research and development, it can yield a sixfold return, including new jobs and economic activity. The Covid-19 pandemic cost 500 times what it would have to invest in proposed preventive measures to reduce disease spillover. The price of prevention is remarkably low, at less than 1% of the federal budget.

This week, the State Department seemed to realize the mistake and announced it will fund up to 50 Ebola treatment clinics in the DRC and Uganda, touting it as an “ironclad” commitment. Sure, treatment centers matter a lot if this actually happens. (As you can see below, the countries don’t even know this is happening.) But what works even better, and is more cost-effective? Helping prevent this in the first place.

Ebola, chemical plants and health, hantavirus, common colds, heat and more - Katelyn Jetelina, Your Local Epidemiologist - As they say, bugs have ears. Public health has had a relentless May. Chemical plant (near) explosions, Ebola, hantavirus, and that's before you even get to the usual suspects: common colds, heat, and ticks. The global count of cruise ship passengers with hantavirus has now increased to 13 cases (11 confirmed), with three deaths. The two new cases are overseas and among people who were already quarantining:

1. A crew member in the Netherlands.
2. A Spanish national passenger who was quarantining at home tested positive through daily monitoring. They are now in a biocontainment unit.

In the U.S., everyone remains negative. There may be more cases, given that the incubation period of hantavirus (the time from exposure to infection) is 45 days. But this week, we will reach a major milestone: the median incubation window is 18 days, and that will pass on May 29.  Timeline of the hantavirus outbreak and the end of quarantine. Image created by Your Local Epidemiologist. From Dr. Craig Spencer:  The combined confirmed and suspected Ebola cases in DRC are now more than 1,000. All signs are pointing to a very long and catastrophic outbreak in Central Africa:

1. This is a vast undercount. We know this because the test positivity rate is hovering around 50%, only 20% of contacts are being traced (and in some areas, no contacts at all), and more cases keep popping up with no known connection. This all points to widespread and undetected community transmission.
2. This is in only a week of detection. Compared to previous outbreaks, the growth is very fast, as the huge West Africa outbreak in 2016 was first detected at 49 cases and rose to 208 cases a month later. It took four months for that outbreak to reach the size of the current one in the DR Congo.
3. The cases are spread out across 16 health zones. There are now multiple epicenters, making containment very difficult.

Next door in Uganda, the case count is seven. While this number is low compared to DRC, a concerning development is that two health care workers recently tested positive with uncertain exposure histories. If they weren’t treating known Ebola cases, this means it’s spreading undetected in Uganda as well.  On the ground, backlash, including the burning of health centers, has emerged, a pattern seen in nearly every outbreak and rooted in deep community distrust. It often stems from outside actors working in communities without fully understanding or addressing local priorities. Affected populations may recognize the severity of Ebola while still holding other concerns as more pressing, such as where their loved ones are buried. Community trust is essential to an effective response, but difficult to build during an active emergency. It is best established long before a crisis begins.U.S. priorities are made clear, and may backfire. The U.S. Administration has shown that its first priority is keeping Ebola out, with helping end the outbreak in the DRC a secondary concern. That's meant travel restrictions broader than anything we've imposed before — covering travelers from across the region, and reportedly some green card holders and permanent residents as well.For example, just these past two days, news broke that high-risk American travelers will be subject to a mandatory quarantine in Kenya before they are allowed to return. If an American is infected, the U.S. government plans to send them to a hospital it is standing up from scratch in Kenya. (Currently, Americans who were in the area are allowed to return but are diverted to three airports—Houston, Atlanta, and DC—for further screening.) Past administrations have used travel notices and stepped-up screening; this goes much further.At first blush, these strict precautions may sound prudent. But this approach could backfire in three ways:

1. Restrictions this blunt give people every reason to hide where they’ve been and whom they’ve been near — making the people we most need to find harder to track, not easier.
2. They also breed a false sense that this is someone else’s problem. But diseases are humbling. They find the small cracks in even the most impenetrable-seeming defenses.
3. Lives lost. There is no treatment for this Ebola strain, which means survival depends heavily on the quality of the health system. We have that system in the States, but we are choosing not to use it for infected Americans.

This is unbelievable and infuriating. (See a deeper dive from me here.) The only real way to lower the risk to Americans — and everyone else — is to end the outbreak in the DRC and across the region.

Ebola cases near 1,000 as world scrambles to contain outbreak  -  The Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Uganda shows no sign of containment, as suspected cases have reached almost 1,000 and Uganda announced it was closing its its border with the DRC.  According to the most recent information compiled by Reliefweb, the DRC has reported 977 suspected cases and 228 suspected deaths, suggesting a case-fatality rate (CFR) of 14.3%. Uganda now has seven confirmed cases, including two healthcare workers, and one death, which also has resulted in a CFR of 14.3%. Today World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, PhD, said the conditions in the DRC are making it nearly impossible for contact tracing and containment, the only tools health workers have to limit disease caused by the Bundibugyo strain of the virus. There are no vaccines or therapeutics that target infections caused by that strain, which is rare and has only caused four outbreaks since it was discovered in 2007. There is also ongoing violence in Ituri and North Kivu province, with at least four Ebola treatment centers attacked in recent days. Health facilities are either non-functional or operating under severe constraints due to insecurity “In many affected areas, health facilities are either non-functional or operating under severe constraints due to insecurity,” Tedros said. “Poor road conditions further restrict the movement of goods and humanitarian assistance.” Americans who were traveling in areas where Ebola is transmitting will now be sent to Kenya for observation and quarantine by specially trained Public Health Service officers and officers from the Department of Defense, according to reports today. In previous Ebola outbreaks, Americans have been flown back to the United States for quarantine and surveillance. During a cabinet meeting today, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told President Trump, “We cannot and will not allow any cases of Ebola to enter the United States.” Yesterday Bush Intercontinental Airport became the third US airport to conduct Ebola health screenings, joining Dulles and Hartsfield-Jackson. Passengers are being screened for fever and asked about their recent travels during the enhanced screenings. Acting Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) director Jay Bhattacharya, MD, PhD, has also asked CDC staff to volunteer for urgent deployment to support Ebola screening at US entry points, according to media reports.

WHO warns of playing catch up with large Ebola outbreak - The World Health Organization (WHO) said the Ebola Bundibugyo outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Uganda is worsening, as organizations are playing catch up with an outbreak that was likely occurring for weeks before it was identified. “We are urgently scaling up operations, but at the moment the epidemic is outpacing us,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, PhD, told the press yesterday, adding that countries bordering the DRC should take action to enhance surveillance at border crossings.Tedros will be traveling to the DRC today to assess the situation. Yesterday he said there were an estimated 220 deaths, with more than 930 suspected cases. Uganda has also now reported seven cases of the deadly virus.  Over the weekend at least two Ebola medical center was attacked and looted, with family members demanding the return of a body for burial. During an arson attack in Ituri on Saturday, at least 18 Ebola patients left a center that was being attacked and are now unaccounted for.Finally, Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport will now be using enhanced public health entry screening for Ebola. Washington-Dulles International Airport began enhanced surveillance last week.

'Breakneck' Ebola epidemic in Congo outpaces world's response (Reuters) - In an Ebola outbreak, hours matter. Yet the response to the deadly and fast-spreading epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congo is weeks if not months behind - and missing thousands of people who may be at risk. Interviews with global health officials and documents from a meeting led ​by the World Health Organization and Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention show how behind the curve authorities are in fighting the latest outbreak. Caused by a strain of the virus known as ‌Bundibugyo for which there is no vaccine or treatment, the outbreak has already caused a suspected 220 deaths and 900 cases, according to the WHO. It has spread to Uganda, where there are seven cases. Health teams are racing to find thousands of people who may have been exposed to the virus while also grappling with myriad challenges that make it difficult to contain. Problems at a local level include lack of basic supplies as well as mistrust from a community scarred by previous outbreaks. Globally, the response is hampered by the withdrawal of the U.S. from ​the WHO and wider funding cuts, many health sources said. Documents from Friday's virtual coordination meeting show that, as of last week, only 7% of the 1,261 people identified as contacts of suspected Ebola patients had been found ​and followed up. The WHO put the number at more than 2,000 on Wednesday. The outbreak is "outpacing the response", WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus posted on Wednesday. "Attacks on health ⁠facilities make tracking cases and their contacts nearly impossible." In eastern Congo, the worst-hit area, hospitals have been attacked and isolation tents burned by angry mobs reclaiming bodies of loved ones, apparently unaware of risks from infectious corpses. That is hindering the ​operation to stop the spread of the virus and track those at risk in an area already wracked with conflict and with poor health infrastructure, three experts said. In a document summary of the meeting on Friday, the partners agreed that reaching ​more contacts is now the key priority as funding and emergency response personnel trickle in. "Bottom line: No vaccine exists. No therapy exists. The virus circulated undetected for six weeks. Cross-border spread is confirmed. Healthcare workers are dying. Every day without a fully resourced response is a day the outbreak gains ground," a presentation by the WHO Africa team from the meeting reads. Professor Salim Abdool Karim, a leading South African epidemiologist and one of the key figures advising Africa CDC, said the outbreak was moving at “breakneck speed”. “If you had to choose a bad place for ​this to happen, it would be Ituri,” he added of the province at its epicentre. While Congolese officials are well-versed in fighting Ebola - this is the 17th outbreak since 1976 - shortages remain a problem, including of the right tests to detect Bundibugyo ​rather than other Ebola viruses. This was also a factor delaying initial detection. “There are very few people on the ground – and there are other problems as well, like getting fuel for the vehicles. It goes on and on,” Karim said. Several sources, including one U.S. ‌official briefed on ⁠the Ebola response and another working with WHO, said problems would have been solved more easily and quickly in the past, when the U.S. worked with WHO and often co-led the international response to outbreaks. The U.S. left the organization in January and has cut international aid funding more broadly, alongside a number of other wealthy countries. “The organisations that would have been able to do this work are not there anymore,” said one U.S. official briefed on the response. Amadou Bocoum, CARE’s country director, said his emergency response team had been cut by a third. U.S. Department of State spokesperson Tommy Pigott said the country had responded within 24 hours of the first confirmed cases, mobilising a range of medical, humanitarian, operational and consular resources to rapidly respond. "Our ​highest priority remains protecting the health and security of ​the American people by working to prevent this outbreak ⁠from reaching our shores," he said. With the scale and origins of the outbreak unclear, it was a "hell of a job" to find all potential cases and contacts, said Marion Koopmans, a Dutch virologist on the WHO's emergency committee. Ebola spreads through direct contact with the bodily fluids of infected people once they have symptoms, contaminated materials, and bodies of those who ​have died with the illness. The contacts of Ebola patients need to be found and then watched over for 21 days, the incubation period of the virus. If ​they get symptoms, they can isolate, ⁠stopping further spread. “We’re going back to the basics of Ebola outbreak responses when we didn't have the means to contain it like we did before vaccines and therapeutics,” said Dr. Alan Gonzalez, deputy director of operations for Medecins Sans Frontieres, which has asked staff worldwide to apply to reinforce the workforce in Congo. There is also a major psychological obstacle. “People are afraid,” said Mamadou Kaba Barry, head of mission in Congo for the Alliance for International Medical Action, which has run 60 health centres in Ituri for several ⁠years. He said ​some cases are disappearing and other suspected cases are not being reported because of the mistrust. He and many others fear a repeat of the ​worst-ever Ebola outbreak, which spread across West Africa in 2014-2016 and caused more than 28,000 cases and 11,000 deaths. “In West Africa, people hid, thinking, 'What's the point of dying and having my family unable to recover my body?'" he said, adding that a decade on, some lessons still need to be learned. “We ​never get used to Ebola. It's always frightening.”

Uganda shuts DR Congo border as Ebola outbreak continues to grow - As the number of cases in the Ebola outbreak centered in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) continues to rise, neighboring Uganda has closed its border.The Ugandan Ministry of Health said on X that the border closure is temporary and that crossings will be authorized for outbreak response, humanitarian operations, food and cargo transportation, and security reasons. “All authorized entrants shall be subjected to strict health screening, completion of locator forms, documentation, and continuous monitoring at all ports of entry in accordance with Ministry of Health surveillance protocols,” the post said.Anyone entering from DRC under other circumstances will be taken into mandatory isolation for 21 days.Uganda currently has eight confirmed cases of Ebola and one death in the outbreak, which is caused by the rarer Bundibugyo species, a variant that has no approved treatment or vaccine. According to data presented today by the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC), DRC has 1,077 suspected cases (129 confirmed) and 246 suspected deaths (18 confirmed). Global charity Save the Children reports that 25% of the 17 confirmed deaths have been in children.The outbreak began in DRC’s Ituri province, which is in the northeastern part of the country, bordering Uganda and South Sudan. Over 90% of cases have been reported in the province, which has been plagued by conflict between government forces and militia groups, resulting in displacement of millions of refugees. Although the outbreak was first reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) on May 15, officials believe it began weeks earlier. It’s the 17th Ebola outbreak in DRC since the virus was first identified in 1976.WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, PhD, said today in a message to people in Ituri that the agency is working closely with the DRC government to stop the outbreak and that he will be coming to Bunia, the capital of the province, in the next few days. He also urged warring parties in the region to declare a ceasefire.“No cause, no conflict, no grievance is worth condemning innocent people to death from a preventable disease,” Tedros said. “A ceasefire, even a temporary one, would save lives. I urge you, I implore you: give us the space to help the people who need it most.” Meanwhile, the Associated Press reports that aid supplies donated by the European Union were delivered today to Bunia, where health workers have been struggling to contain the spread of the virus with a limited supply of gloves, masks, boots, and medication. An official with UNICEF, which is helping deliver the supplies, said the aid is expected to arrive in batches over the next eight days.The Guardian reports that several doctors and nurses treating Ebola patients at healthcare facilities in DRC have died after contracting the virus. Healthcare workers and family members often face the greatest risk of infection with the virus, which spreads through contact with bodily fluids, because of their proximity to infected patients. The US State Department said today that it will allocate $80 million to partners on the ground—including UNICEF, the World Food Program, World Vision, and the International Organization for Migration—to scale up procurement and delivery of personal protective equipment and diagnostics, border screening and surveillance, and contract tracing.The State Department also said it has committed $50 million to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs to fund up to 50 Ebola response clinics in the affected areas.But in a press conference today, Africa CDC Director-General Jean Kaseya, MD, MPH, said he’s concerned about international funding for the response after initial pledges of $500 million dropped to $290 million in a few days.“We cannot afford to stop this outbreak without resources,” he said. Kaseya also called out travel restrictions imposed by some western countries. “It’s not acceptable.”US officials also confirmed today that Kenyan officials have agreed to a US plan to establish a quarantine unit in Kenya for Americans exposed to Ebola in the current outbreak, according to the Wall Street Journal. More than 30 US public health officers are on their way to Kenya to staff the 50-bed unit.The plan is being widely criticized by public health experts, who’ve argued that the United States already has specialized treatment centers specifically designed for Ebola and other deadly infectious diseases and that quickly setting up a high-quality clinic in Kenya will be impossible.“Building and staffing a new unit in Kenya during an active outbreak for Americans exposed to Ebola is deeply concerning,” Infectious Diseases Society of America President Ronald Nahass, MD, said in a statement. “It raises serious questions about resources, timing and the level of care Americans sent there will receive.”

WHO chief arrives in DR Congo to address Ebola outbreak - World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, PhD, arrived late yesterday in the capital of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) amid an expanding Ebola outbreak.Speaking from Kinshasa before traveling to Ituri province, the outbreak’s epicenter, Tedros said the outbreak is very complex but can be stopped and that he wanted the people in Ituri and neighboring North and South Kivu provinces to know “that they are not alone.” Tedros also called for increased international support “so the health workers get the supplies and the protective measures they need.” In an update today, the WHO said a total of 906 suspected cases and 223 suspected deaths have been reported in DRC, with 134 cases confirmed, including nine in neighboring Uganda. Eighteen deaths from Ebola have been confirmed across both countries. The outbreak has been caused by a rarer strain of Ebola known as the Bundibugyo virus, which has no approved treatments or vaccines, and is occurring in a region where armed conflict has caused massive refugee movement.The WHO said challenges in contract tracing and follow-up, insecurity, and inadequate isolation, care, and referral systems for patients are all complicating response efforts, as are community resistance and attacks on health facilities.“These create additional risks for undetected transmission, disrupt outbreak response efforts, and reinforce the need to strengthen community protection and engagement activities,” the agency said.  At a press conference, an official from the WHO’s High Threat Pathogens Team estimated that the death rate among those confirmed to be infected is 30% to 50%.“That means up to five out of 10 people are likely to die,” said Anais Legand, MPH.In other outbreak news, a court in Kenya has temporarily blocked a US plan to establish a makeshift quarantine facility for up to 50 Americans who’ve been exposed to Ebola, according to media reports. The decision comes a day after US officials said the Kenyan government had agreed to the plan, which has been widely criticized by public health experts. The plan to build the facility, built by the US military on Laikipia Air Base in Kenya, was challenged by Kenya’s Katiba Institute, which argued that it “raises grave constitutional concerns.” The judge said the field hospital should not operate until the court hears the full case on June 2. To date, one American, a missionary physician, has been exposed to Ebola in the outbreak. He’s currently being treated at a hospital in Prague, the Washington Post reports.  At a press briefing today, Satish Pillai, MD, MPH, incident manager for the Center for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC’s) Ebola response, repeatedly referred questions about the Kenya facility to the US State Department, which he said is the lead federal agency for those efforts.Pillai said CDC’s efforts are focused on supporting the affected countries and “maintaining readiness here at home” and noted that more than 230 CDC employees are currently supporting the response effort, including 54 who are helping with Ebola screening at four US airports. CDC staff members, a mix of volunteers and commissioned staff, are also on the ground in DRC and Uganda, Pillai said.

Confirmed Ebola cases nearly double in days as WHO chief visits DR Congo   -- Al Jazeera  The head of the United Nations health agency is visiting the epicentre of a deadly Ebola outbreak in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), urging local communities to lead the fight against a disease whose confirmed cases have nearly doubled in two days.Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the World Health Organization (WHO) director-general, arrived in Bunia, the capital of Ituri province, on Saturday.“The international community is involved under the leadership of the government of DRC, and at the same time, community ownership is important; that’s why we’re here to discuss with the community to see how the response is you know, running, and if there are challenges, to help,” Tedros told reporters.“The communities understand the problems better, and they know the solution, as well.”Congolese authorities say the number of confirmed cases in DRC reached 225 on Friday, nearly double the figure of 121 reported two days earlier.The outbreak is caused by the Bundibugyo virus, a rare and severe form of Ebola for which there is no approved vaccine or treatment.The WHO has declared the outbreak a global health emergency, its highest level of alarm, and the medical NGO Doctors Without Borders, known by its French initials MSF, calls it one of the fastest-spreading Ebola outbreaks ever recorded.Authorities have also recorded 1,028 suspected cases and more than 220 suspected deaths in DRC, while the disease has crossed into neighbouring Uganda, which has recorded nine confirmed cases and one death. Ebola was first identified in this part of central Africa in 1976; this is the DRC’s 17th outbreak.Bundibugyo is one of three virus types behind most major epidemics; the deadliest, the Zaire Ebola virus, drove the 2014–2016 West Africa outbreak, the largest on record, with more than 28,000 cases.“Nobody knows the true scale and severity of this outbreak,” MSF said, warning that the response has not kept pace.The WHO has cautioned that the death rate could reach 30 to 50 percent – the range seen in the previous two Bundibugyo outbreaks – though the rate among confirmed cases so far has been lower.

WHO puts Ebola outbreak death rate at ‘huge’ 30-50% as chief arrives in DRC --The death rate of the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is between 30% and 50%, the World Health Organization has said, as its head arrived in the country to support efforts to contain the disease. Anaïs Legand, from the WHO’s high threat pathogens team, said the revised death rate estimate is based on confirmed cases. “It’s huge. It means that up to five out of 10 people are likely to die,” Legand told reporters in Geneva. She also said that a patient had recovered from Ebola and was discharged from a health centre in the DRC on 27 May after two negative tests, the first recovery to have been confirmed in the outbreak. The WHO has recorded 10 confirmed and 223 suspected Ebola deaths in the DRC since the outbreak was declared on 15 May, among more than 1,000 confirmed and suspected cases.Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the organisation’s director general, arrived in Kinshasa on Thursday and was due to travel to the centre of the outbreak, in the north-east Ituri province, on Friday, but the trip has been pushed back by a day  “That thing can be stopped,” Tedros told reporters, adding that the WHO did not support travel bans because they “don’t help much”.“Together, we will overcome this outbreak,” he said in a separate message to Congolese citizens, promising to do “everything in my power to help”.The true scale of the outbreak may be significantly larger, the WHO said, because the virus is believed to have circulated undetected for some time. The outbreak is the 17th recorded Ebola epidemic in the vast central African country, which has a population of more than 100 million. The disease was first identified there in 1976 and its death rate has averaged 50% across all outbreaks, according to the WHO. Complicating relief efforts, the outbreak is centred on a mineral-rich region fought over by armed groups. “Conflict and displacement make everything harder,” Tedros said. “I am making a direct appeal to all warring parties in this region: please declare a ceasefire. No cause, no conflict, no grievance is worth condemning innocent people to death from a preventable disease.”More than 245,000 people have fled eastern DRC to neighbouring countries since January 2025, according to the UN refugee agency. Armed groups operating in the area include the Rwanda-backed M23, which controls large parts of the North and South Kivu provinces south of Ituri.Early symptoms of Ebola include fever, exhaustion, muscle pain, headaches and a sore throat. These can progress to vomiting, diarrhoea, abdominal pain, rash and impaired kidney and liver function.The disease spreads through direct contact with the blood or body fluids of an infected person or someone who has died from Ebola.There is no approved treatment for the Bundibugyo strain of Ebola, responsible for the current outbreak. However, the WHO said on Thursday that its advisory groups had recommended clinical trials of vaccines and treatments. The head of the African Union’s health agency, Jean Kaseya, said a vaccine could be ready by the end of the year. Neighbouring Uganda, which has recorded one Ebola death and eight additional cases, announced on Wednesday it would immediately close its border with the DRC. The WHO warned that border closures could drive up informal crossings and make it harder to monitor and contain the disease.

Ebola spread in DR Congo 'alarming', charity warns, as WHO chief visits worst-hit area  -The rapid spread of Ebola in the Democratic Republic of Congo has created a "deeply alarming" situation, the medical charity Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) has warned. Speaking two weeks on from the outbreak being declared, MSF Deputy Director Dr Alan Gonzales said never before had "so many cases" been recorded so soon. His comments came as the head of the World Health Organization (WHO), Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, arrived in the eastern Congolese province of Ituri - the worst-hit area - to oversee virus containment efforts. There are now more than 1,000 suspected Ebola cases in the DR Congo, and at least 246 deaths. Neighbouring Uganda has reported nine confirmed cases and one death. AFP via Getty Images World Health Organization head Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesu in Bunia, eastern DR Congo. Photo: 30 May 2026AFP via Getty Images WHO head Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesu visited eastern DR Congo's Ituri province on Saturday "Two weeks after the declaration of the Ebola disease outbreak in Ituri Province, the situation is deeply alarming," Gonzalez said in a statement on Saturday. "Never before has an Ebola outbreak recorded so many cases so soon after its declaration," he said, stressing his teams on the ground were "witnessing a response that has not yet caught up to the rapid spread of the epidemic". "The reality today is that nobody knows the true scale and severity of this outbreak. New suspected cases are being reported daily, yet hundreds of samples remain untested." Gonzalez added that containment efforts and humanitarian aid deliveries were being delayed by "major constraints", including border and airport closures. The WHO has repeatedly warned that ongoing conflict in the DR Congo was also significantly hampering the Ebola outbreak response. After arriving in Ituri's provincial capital of Bunia on Saturday, Tedros said he and his team were in the DR Congo "to see how the response is running and if there are challenges to help". He urged communities in the centre of the outbreak to play a bigger role in fighting the disease, saying they "understand the problems better and they know the solution as well". Tedros also said he understood how important it was for people to honour their dead at funerals - but warned that right now this was dangerous. "Certain practices including touching of bodies of those who have died from Ebola, can spread the virus further. While we grieve for those we've lost, we must do everything we can so that we don't lose another, and get into a cycle of grief," he said. In Bunia, daily life appears largely unchanged. People continue to move around, trade and go about their normal activities. On arrival at the city's airport, passengers are directed to handwashing stations where they are required to clean their hands with soap and water. Public health advisories are displayed in parts of the airport, while information is also being broadcast on radio and television. These messages are being delivered in local languages as well as in French, the DR Congo's official language. One of the WHO head's first stops was the National Institute for Biomedical Research laboratory in Bunia, where samples from suspected Ebola patients are tested. Local health officials say the facility is now able to return results within 24 hours, helping doctors quickly identify infections and begin treatment. Until recently, samples had to be transported more than 1,500km (932 miles) to the DR Congo's capital, Kinshasa, causing delays that health workers feared could cost lives and allow the virus to spread further. In a separate development, health officials in Brazil said on Saturday that they were investigating a suspected Ebola case in São Paulo state. Brazilian media report that a 37-year-old man - who had recently returned from the DR Congo - was now in isolation in an infectious diseases institute.

Hantavirus outbreak linked to cruise ship grows to 13 cases - Over the past five days, two more cases of hantavirus have been confirmed among passengers and crew who were aboard the MV Hondius Dutch cruise ship in April and May. The outbreak now has 13 cases, three of which were fatal.Several passengers remain in isolation and quarantine in various countries, including 18 Americans who are staying in a biocontainment unit in Nebraska through the end of the month. Hantavirus can have a 42-day incubation period. The Andes strain causing the outbreak is the only known hantavirus capable of spreading from person to person. The first new case identified late last week was in a Dutch crew member who had disembarked the ship in Spain and was being monitored for the virus. “The situation is stable for now. We continue to remain vigilant and in close contact with all relevant governments,” Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general of the World Health Organization (WHO), said on X on May 24. “All passengers and crew remain in quarantine and under close monitoring to ensure they receive care if needed.”On May 25, Spain confirmed that a citizen who was aboard the MV Hondius and was isolated at a hospital in Madrid also tested positive for hantavirus.  So far, none of the cases have occurred in anyone who was not aboard the cruise ship.

US data show ‘alarming’ increase in multidrug-resistance gene    -US surveillance data show a dramatic rise in the incidence of a particularly worrisome form of multidrug-resistant bacteria in hospital patients, researchers from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported yesterday in Emerging Infectious Diseases. The data are from the CDC’s Emerging Infections Program (EIP) Multi-site Gram-negative Surveillance Initiative, which collects and analyzes bacterial isolates from 10 locations around the country to monitor the incidence of carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales (CRE). Infections caused by CRE—which includes carbapenem-resistant strains of Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, and Enterobacter—are among the superbugs the CDC keeps track of because they are resistant to multiple classes of antibiotics and are a major concern for hospital patients.In 2022, an estimated 13,387 CRE infections occurred in US hospital patients.The isolates were all tested for the presence of carbapenemase genes, which confer broad resistance to beta-lactam antibiotics and can be shared among bacterial species. Of the 1,288 carbapenemase-producing CRE identified from 2016 to 2023, bla_KPC was the most common carbapenemase gene detected (79%), followed by bla_NDM (20.6%), bla_OXA-48-like (7.5%), bla_IMP (0.6%), and bla_VIM (0.5%). But the proportion of isolates carrying bla_NDM, which was once rare in the United States, rose from 5.4% in 2016 to 39.8% in 2023. The increase was seen most prominently in E coli, with bla_NDM representing 73% of all carbapenemase-producing E coli in 2023.“The increase of bla_NDM is alarming given that NDM-producing CRE are more resistant than other CRE isolates,” the study authors wrote, adding that they are resistant to some of the newer beta-lactam combination antibiotics that have been developed specifically for CRE infections, which further limits treatment options.

Over-the-counter antibiotic sales a ‘significant barrier’ to addressing antibiotic resistance - The results of a survey conducted among healthcare professionals in 37 countries suggest over-the-counter (OTC) antibiotic sales remain all too common, researchers reported last week in JAC-Antimicrobial Resistance. The electronic survey, sent to members of the AMR Insights Ambassador Network by a team of international researchers, assessed demographic characteristics, the existence of national regulations regarding OTC antibiotic sales, and the availability of specific antibiotics for purchase without a prescription. Although research has shown that the use of OTC antibiotics remains ubiquitous in many countries, particularly in Asia and Africa, the researchers said the practice “remains inadequately described on a global scale.” “The acquisition and use of antibiotics without a prescription remains a significant barrier to addressing the global burden of AMR [antimicrobial resistance],” they wrote. “While all antimicrobial use contributes to the development of resistance, such use when unwarranted can lead to significant harm to both the individual and society.” Of the 75 respondents, 49 (65.3%) said antibiotics could be bought OTC in their countries without a prescription and only eight (10.7%) said antibiotic sales were strictly limited to people with a valid medical prescription. Of the 64 who answered questions about points of sale for non-prescription antibiotics, 55 (85.9%) said community pharmacies were the primary point of sale, with retail stores, internet vendors, and grocery stores identified as other sources. Penicillins (86.7%) and tetracyclines (83.3%) were the most frequently reported antibiotic classes available without a prescription, but respondents reported that other critical antibiotic classes deemed critical by the World Health Organization (WHO) were also available, including carbapenems, cephalosporins, fluoroquinolones, and macrolides. “The finding that antibiotics are readily available in 37 countries—representing nearly 19% of the 194 WHO Member States—is concerning and highlights a critical gap in global stewardship,” the authors wrote, adding that the availability of last-resort antibiotics like carbapenems is particularly concerning and indicates that countries need to do more to ensure appropriate antibiotic use.

Quick takes: Upcoming VRBPAC meeting, Salmonella tied to moringa powder, Lyme surge in UK | CIDRAP

• The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) will meet tomorrow to discuss the composition of the COVID-19 vaccines for the 2026-27 viral respiratory season. The focus of the discussion will be whether the committee will advise vaccine manufacturers to use the LP.8.1 subvariant as the antigen in a monovalent vaccine, as the World Health Organization recently did, or consider two other JN.1 lineage subvariants—NB.1.8.1 and XFG—that have become dominant in the United States. The vaccines used for the 2025-26 season were based on LP.8.1. “Because of the continuing virus antigenic drift, a review and discussion regarding the need for a strain composition update for COVID-19 vaccines is warranted,” the FDA said in a briefing document.
• The FDA and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are investigation another Salmonella outbreak linked to contaminated moringa leaf powder. The FDA said today that 18 people in 14 states have been sickened, and seven hospitalized, by the outbreak strain of Salmonella Typhimurium linked to MOGO brand Pure Moringa Oleifera capsules sold on Amazon, eBay, and the company’s website. Illness-onset dates range from February 3 to April 27. The FDA said the outbreak is new and the investigation separate from two previous Salmonella outbreaks linked to moringa powder. An investigation into one of those outbreaks was reopened today after four new cases were reported.
• A report published last week by the United Kingdom Health Security Agency (UKHSA) shows that cases of Lyme disease rose by 22% last year. The One Health vector-borne disease surveillance report shows 1,168 lab-confirmed cases of Lyme disease were reported in 2025, up from 959 in 2024 but close to the 1,151 recorded in 2023. UKHSA officials say they’ve seen an increasing geographic distribution of the ticks that carry the Borrelia burgdorferi bacterium, which causes Lyme disease, across the United Kingdom in recent years, but they expect case rates to vary year by year depending on awareness, testing rates, and weather.

Multistate Salmonella outbreak tied to moringa supplements tops 100 cases, leads to new recall -After reopening an investigation into a Salmonella outbreak tied to moringa leaf powder, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) yesterday confirmed 22 new cases in four newly affected states and implicated another product.The new cases and states increase the outbreak total to 119 infections in 36 states. The CDC also confirmed six new outbreak-related hospitalizations, bringing hospital cases to 32. No deaths have been reported, however.“Epidemiologic information shows some lots of TNVitamins Moringa Capsules may be making people sick now,” the CDC said. “CDC and FDA [Food and Drug Administration] continue to work to identify if there are other products causing illness in this outbreak.”The CDC said Total Nutrition, Inc, has recalled two brands of moringa capsules: TNVitamins Ultra Potent Complete Green Superfood Moringa 10,000 milligrams [mg], and Doctor’s Pride Complete Green Superfood Ultra Potent Moringa 10,000 mg (see photo above).This is the third recall in this outbreak. On January 15, Superfoods, Inc., recalled all Live it Up Super Greens supplement powders. On January 28, Why Not Natural recalled Why Not Natural Pure Organic Moringa Green Superfood capsules.The multistate outbreak involves both the Typhimurium and Newport strains of Salmonella. Illness-onset dates in the outbreak range from August 22, 2025, to April 26, 2026. Patients range in age from less than 1 year to 81 years, with a median age of 45. More than half are male (57%), and nearly all are White (92%).“The true number of sick people in this outbreak is likely much higher than the number reported, and this outbreak may not be limited to the states with known illnesses,” the CDC said. This is because many people recover without medical care and are not tested for Salmonella. In addition, recent illnesses may not yet be reported.”Wisconsin has the most cases (16), followed by Minnesota (nine).The CDC also reported yesterday a new Salmonella Typhimurium outbreak with 18 cases and seven hospitalizations in 14 states. That separate outbreak is linked to Mogo brand moringa capsules, which have also been recalled.

US dengue cases jumped 359% in 2024 amid global surge - The number of dengue cases reported in the United States in 2024 was 359% higher than the annual average reported from 2010 through 2023, according to a study published last week in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. The increase was driven almost entirely by infections acquired during international travel amid a surge in dengue cases that year. Of the 3,798 cases reported in the United States in 2024, 97.2% were linked to travel, with most tied to destinations in the Caribbean, including Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands (34.1%). Travel to North America—primarily Mexico—accounted for 24.3% of infections, and travel to Central America for 15.6%. Locally acquired cases accounted for 2.8% of the overall US case count. Florida reported the most cases overall, with 1,044 infections, followed by California with 720 and New York with 338. Locally acquired infections were identified in Florida, California, and Texas, with Florida accounting for 85 of the 105 locally acquired cases (81%) reported nationwide. The sharp rise in US cases mirrors a worldwide surge. Infections globally climbed to 14.1 million in 2024, an increase of roughly 8 million cases in 2023. Spread by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes, dengue is the leading cause of febrile illness (illness characterized by fever) in travelers returning to the United States from areas where the virus is endemic. Severe illness can be marked by heavy bleeding, respiratory distress, and organ impairment. Ae aegypti and albopictus mosquitoes are found throughout large areas of the southeastern and southwestern United States and continue to spread to other regions of the country. Roughly half of US counties have mosquito species that can transmit viruses to humans, and the climate in three quarters of the country is amenable to Aedes species, the report notes. More than one-third of US dengue patients (36.1%) required hospitalization, and 105 met the criteria for severe dengue. Six deaths were reported. Adults ages 50 to 59 accounted for the largest proportion of infections and had the highest case-fatality rate. The researchers note that most dengue cases occurred among patients reporting Hispanic ethnicity, potentially because Hispanic travelers may be more likely to visit dengue-endemic regions such as Latin America and the Caribbean, both heavily affected by outbreaks in 2024.

The scent of supper: Can mosquitoes learn to love DEET? | CIDRAP When it comes to keeping mosquitos from biting, DEET has long been considered the gold standard. Sprayed on before hikes and picnics and while traveling to mosquito-dense corners of the globe, the world’s most widely used insect repellent comes with the expectation that its smell will send mosquitoes zipping off in the opposite direction. But research published yesterday in the Journal of Experimental Biology suggests that mosquitoes may learn to associate the smell of DEET with dinner—and start gravitating toward it instead of away from it. The findings challenge long-held assumptions about how DEET works and what mosquitoes may be capable of learning. For the study, researchers from the University of Tours in France and Virginia Tech examined whether female Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, the species that spreads dengue, Zika, yellow fever, and chikungunya, could learn to associate DEET with a food reward. The team used a form of Pavlovian conditioning in which mosquitoes feed on warm blood through an artificial membrane. Twenty seconds into their meal, the researchers released DEET into the feeding enclosure—a process they repeated three more times before exposing the mosquitos to DEET but no food reward. When the trained mosquitos caught a whiff of DEET alone, more than 60% of them tried to feed again, displaying what researchers termed a “biting attempt response” (BAR). That’s compared with roughly 20% of untrained mosquitoes who performed BAR when exposed to DEET alone. In another experiment, mosquitoes were given a choice between two human hands. One hand was treated with DEET, and one was untreated. All of the untrained mosquitoes avoided the DEET-treated hand. Trained mosquitoes, however, were significantly more likely to orient toward the treated hand. In a final experiment, the researchers exposed mosquitos to DEET while the insects fed on sugar. Later, when the trained mosquitos were exposed to DEET alone (no sugar), most of them performed a BAR. The findings suggest that the mosquitoes’ learned behavior was not limited to blood alone. “What this result suggests is that the neural circuits that are processing the detection and interpretation of a ‘reward,’ or positive reinforcement, are not specific to a given type of reward,” senior author Clement Vinauger, PhD, Virginia Tech associate professor of biochemistry, tells CIDRAP News. “Practically, this implies that mosquitoes could learn the association between smells and sugary rewards beyond the time window during which they feed on our blood,” he says. “In other words, mosquitoes’ learning abilities could influence many more aspects of their daily lives than we currently think.” At commercial concentrations, DEET is highly effective at repelling mosquitoes. “This is why, in our experiments, we had to give mosquitoes the opportunity to start feeding before introducing the smell of DEET,” says Vinauger. “The other way around, mosquitoes would simply refuse to feed.” “However, that repellency is dose-dependent,” he adds. “And there is a risk that lower doses might still be detected by the mosquito’s olfactory system, without effectively repelling it. In this case, one could imagine that the mosquito experiencing this could learn that DEET isn’t so bad after all.”A common assumption about DEET is that it works because of its chemistry—either it blocks mosquitos from smelling us or it simply smells terrible to mosquitoes, sending them scurrying away. “But what we are showing is that the mosquito’s brain can rewrite that response based on experience,” Vinauger says in a Virginia Tech news release. “What the insect has learned matters just as much as what the chemical does. That, I think, is a paradigm shift.”

Leptospirosis outbreak in dogs reveals large vaccination gaps | CIDRAP -  A leptospirosis outbreak involving more than 200 pet dogs in Los Angeles County, California, in 2021 highlights the importance of canine vaccination and discusses the public health risk, a team led by University of California at Davis (UC Davis) researchers write in the Journal of Clinical Microbiology.The team investigated the outbreak in dogs diagnosed as having leptospirosis at two animal hospitals. They conducted serotyping and whole-genome sequencing (WGS) on samples from four dogs. When the outbreak was over, the team compared data on 59 infected dogs with data on 15,536 controls.Leptospirosis is a potentially serious bacterial illness that can cause acute kidney injury and death in dogs. People also are susceptible to the disease through contact with contaminated water or animal urine, particularly that from rodents. In people, the disease often causes flu-like symptoms and can be treated with antibiotics.All isolates were identified as Leptospira interrogans serovar Canicola. Of 47 dogs with a leptospirosis vaccination history, none were completely vaccinated.The outbreak was traced to dog daycare facilities, where close contact may have accelerated animal-to-animal spread, an unusual occurrence. “It might have been rodent problems in those facilities, or it might have just been really overcrowded facilities with lots of dogs in close contact with one another,” lead author Jane Sykes, PhD, of UC Davis, said in a university news release.  No linked cases in people were identified, but the authors said leptospirosis is likely underdiagnosed in people.The findings also underscore the importance of canine vaccination. “At the time, Los Angeles area veterinarians rarely offered leptospirosis vaccinations because the bacteria thrive in water from heavy rainfall and L.A. is an arid climate,” Sykes said. “It was considered a low risk.”

Arctic thaw unleashes mining-like pollution across hundreds of Arctic waterways - Thawing permafrost is rapidly transforming dozens of Arctic streams into acidic, metal-laden waterways, according to new research published in Science. The study shows how thawing permafrost exposes sulfide minerals that react with oxygen and water—a process similar to what occurs in mining pollution. The reactions release acidity and heavy metals such as zinc, nickel, cadmium, and aluminum into surrounding waters. These findings draw on decades of careful observation in one of the most remote regions on Earth. Sean Carey, professor in the School of Earth, Environment and Society and one of the co-authors of the study, has been working in the Yukon since the mid-1990s. His work has focused on building relationships with local and Indigenous communities and developing long-term monitoring sites to understand how northern water systems respond to environmental change. Data from the Tombstone Watershed Observatory, a long-running monitoring site in the Yukon supported by the CFI-MSI Global Water Futures Observatories program, made it possible for researchers to capture the changes as they unfolded. The team, which included Ph.D. student Andras Szeitz, tracked shifts in water chemistry across multiple streams. While analyzing trace metals in the water, the team witnessed dramatic changes as they happened. "What shocked all of us was how quickly this happened. We expected changes over decades, but we watched pH levels crater toward highly acidic values and streams turn orange within a two-year period that started in 2023," explains Elliott Skierszkan, assistant professor at Carleton University and lead author of the paper. In some cases, streams turned from clear to orange between daily observations. "It's very rare in our type of work to see something change so quickly," Carey says, adding that the scale of the changes is equally concerning. Rather than a single pollution source, as with a mine, these chemical reactions are occurring across hundreds of catchments in Yukon and Alaska simultaneously. "What's striking is both the speed and the scale. Water quality in some of these catchments is deteriorating extremely quickly, and wherever the underlying geology contains sulfide minerals, we're seeing this occur across entire regions," says Matthew Lindsay, a professor at the University of Saskatchewan. Ecological risks and community impacts This degrading water quality means streams can become highly acidic and unsuitable for aquatic life. Larger rivers may dilute some of these impacts, but the long-term consequences remain uncertain—particularly as metals move through ecosystems and follow various pathways.

After the flames, wildfires pollute drinking water for years - Most wildfires leave behind a barren, blackened landscape, and within this changed environment, important impacts can leave their mark. Trees and other vegetation that once slowed rainfall and held soil in place are gone. Ash and burned debris cover the ground. Soil can become more vulnerable to erosion. Then, the rain comes. When that happens, streams, rivers and water reservoirs receive a sudden pulse of ash, sediment and fire-suppressant chemicals washed off the land. For communities that depend on those waters for drinking water, wildfires can quickly become a long-term water-quality problem. This risk is often overlooked when governments and communities think about wildfires. Our recent review of 23 studies across 28 watersheds brings together existing knowledge on how wildfire-related contaminants affect water sources. One of the clearest lessons is that the impacts of wildfire do not stop at the edge of the burn scar. They can travel downstream, into the waters that people rely on every day. One of the first signs of trouble after a wildfire is often turbidity — the cloudiness caused by suspended particles in the water. High turbidity can make drinking water much more difficult to treat. Fine particles can interfere with processes, clog filters and make disinfection less effective. After a fire, the problem is often worsened by storms that flush large amounts of ash, soil and organic material into waterways over a short period of time. Wildfires can also increase levels of contaminants such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), some of which are carcinogenic or suspected carcinogens. Many PAHs can attach to ash, soot and fine particles, allowing them to move through a watershed when water runs off. Some lower-molecular-weight PAHs may also occur in dissolved form, creating additional challenges for monitoring and water treatment.In some cases, chemicals used in fire suppression can also affect water quality: some fire retardants contain phosphates, which can add too many nutrients to water bodies if they get into streams or reservoirs. Wildfires also make landscapes more vulnerable to erosion, which can release sediments, metals, dissolved organic matter and other contaminants into lakes, rivers and reservoirs.Not every wildfire affects water in the same way. The size of the impact depends on many factors: how severely the area burned, how steep the terrain is, what kinds of soil and vegetation are present, how close the burned area is to streams and reservoirs, and how soon heavy rain falls after the fire. In many cases, the fire creates the conditions for water contamination, but the first major storm that follows delivers the blow.There are still those other persistent factors that can lead to contamination, even years after the wildfire. This is one reason wildfire risk is becoming harder to manage in a warming world.That broader perspective matters for water policy. If governments treat wildfire only as an emergency response problem, they will miss what happens before and long after the flames. They will also miss opportunities to reduce long-term contamination of drinking water.

Texas Woman Arrested After Facebook Post Over Unsafe Brown Drinking Water: Report -- A woman in Trinidad, Texas, was arrested after she posted on Facebook raising concerns about the safety of the city's discolored drinking water, according to Fox 4.  Jennifer Combs posted the message on April 6 to her citizen-watchdog group page, Southern Belle Watch, urging residents who had been sickened by the city's tap water to come forward. "We have received reports that some citizens have been hospitalized due to bacteria in the water. This is a serious public health concern that deserves immediate attention," she wrote. "If your water looks discolored, contains sediment, has a strong odor, or you have experienced related health issues, please send us a message. We are gathering information and reporting findings to the state." In what could be seen as a brazen move against free speech, Jennifer Combs was arrested on May 8. Trinidad Police Chief Charles Gregory scrambled to defend the arrest, claiming the case was "cut and dry" and saying her claims about hospitalizations "are simply false and have only caused unnecessary fear and confusion in our community."Trinidad law enforcement claimed Combs had written "false information that creates fear, panic, or unnecessary emergency response within a community."However, on April 21, a few weeks after Combs' post, the city itself issued a notice urging residents to boil their water to "avoid harmful bacteria," according to the New York Post."It was probably one of the most humiliating things I've ever gone through in my entire life. It was very, very bad," Combs told Fox 4 of the arrest. Combs has filed a federal lawsuit against the city, including Chief Gregory and another member of the local police force. CJ Grisham, a lawyer who is representing Combs in her case against the cops, branded the arrest an "abuse of power," the Post reported.

Heatstroke kills 16 in India as temperatures climb - At least 16 people have died of heatstroke in southern India so far this summer, officials said Sunday, as a heat wave grips swathes of the country following official health warnings. India is no stranger to scorching summers but years of scientific research have found climate change is causing heat waves to become longer, more frequent and more intense. Temperatures in several cities across the South Asian country of 1.4 billion people have recently hovered well above 45C. The deaths were reported in the southern state of Telangana, with revenue minister Ponguleti Srinivasa Reddy calling for "statewide vigilance" to safeguard public health. "The intensity of the heat has reached unprecedented levels" and officials in Telangana should issue advance warnings about precautions to be taken during heat waves, Reddy's office said in a statement. Health experts say that extreme heat can lead to dehydration that thickens the blood and, in particularly severe cases, causes organs to shut down. The local government in Telangana advised the elderly, children and pregnant women not to venture out in daytime unless necessary. Earlier this week, the India Meteorological Department predicted above-normal temperatures and intense heat wave conditions in several parts of the country. Temperatures in the capital New Delhi and other nearby cities have stayed over 40C throughout this week, sending power usage soaring to record levels. In addition to the burning midday heat, overnight minimum temperatures are also high, giving people little respite. India, the world's most populous nation, is the third-biggest emitter of greenhouse gases and relies heavily on burning coal for power generation. It has committed to achieving a net-zero emissions economy by 2070—two decades after most of the industrialized West. The country's highest officially recorded temperature is 51C, measured at Phalodi in Rajasthan in 2016.

UK beats May heat record with 33.5C registered near London Britain broke its record on Monday for the hottest day in May, according to the national weather agency, with the mercury rising to 33.5C near London as the country baked in a sweltering heat wave.The previous hottest May day saw 32.8C heat, first registered in 1922 and again in 1944. It is just the latest temperature record to tumble in the UK, which saw its hottest year on the books in 2025, with scientists warning that the country is unprepared for the ever-more frequent heat waves driven by man-made climate change.The Met Office had earlier forecast highs of 35C, after heat wave conditions spread to parts of southeast England and London by Sunday night."Temperatures at Heathrow have recently reached 33.5C, provisionally beating the all-time May record," the Met Office wrote on social media."Records are usually only broken by tenths of a degree—making this heat wave unprecedented for the time of year," the weather agency added earlier.Monday is also expected to be the hottest bank holiday ever."We rarely see temperatures above 35C, even in the summer months, so to see temperatures getting close to 35C in May is, as I say, pretty historic," Met Office meteorologist Tom Morgan told the domestic Press Association news agency."It's nice to have it, but it is much, much hotter than it should be in the UK," Andrea Quaine, a 41-year-old mother, told AFP in London as temperatures exceeded 30C on Sunday."I am worried about it because it obviously shows that global warming is happening," she added.

Heat dome over Europe scorches UK, France, Spain - Forecasters in Europe warned Tuesday of exceptional heat, as record temperatures driven by a "heat dome" push temperatures well above seasonal norms across the continent. The surge follows a record-breaking Monday, with France logging its hottest day in the month of May on record, according to its weather agency, and the United Kingdom also posting unprecedented highs. A so-called "heat dome" of warm air from northern Africa trapped under a high-pressure system over western Europe is behind the high temperatures not usually seen until high summer. Restrictions on outdoor work were imposed in parts of Italy, beaches in southwest France filled earlier than usual, and farmers reported accelerated harvests as temperatures went beyond 30C across the region. Scientists say human-driven climate change is amplifying such extremes, with Europe warming faster than the global average and heat waves growing more frequent and severe. Temperatures in Spain were expected to peak later this week at 38C, while parts of Italy imposed restrictions on working outdoors. Brittany in northwest France is one of eight areas put under heat wave alert. In the United Kingdom, the Met Office weather agency said Monday was the hottest May day on record, with temperatures hitting 34.8C at Kew Gardens, southwest London—a full two degrees above the previous high. "This heat would be exceptional in the UK even in mid-summer, let alone May," it said on X. "The weather here, it's like a mini version of hell. It's boiling. It's like really hot," said 10-year-old Liza Nizari on a visit to London, where temperatures normally average about 17C or 18C at this time of year. The Met Office forecast a drop later in the week. Lindy Brand-Daloze, a 66-year-old Australian living in London for 12 years, said, "It's warm, but it's climate change, isn't it? So, you know, (we have) probably got to get used to this." Scientists say human-induced climate change is making extreme weather events like heat waves, droughts, and floods more intense, resulting in temperature records being broken more frequently. Met Office meteorologist Greg Dewhurst told AFP the increase in extreme temperatures was "a good indication of climate change in action" and more likely to become "the new norm." Climate advisers last week warned the UK government that the country was "built for a climate that no longer exists" and urged it to adapt infrastructure like schools and hospitals for a warming planet. In 2022, temperatures in the UK soared above 40C for the first time since records began. A record May temperature of 28.8C was recorded at two weather stations in Ireland: Killarney in the southwest and Clonmel in the south, Met Eireann data showed. A grass fire broke out near Arthur's Seat hill near Edinburgh, sending smoke over the Scottish city that saw temperatures climb to 25C, according to firefighters and the BBC. Across the Channel, weather agency Meteo-France said that for France as a whole, "Monday was the hottest day recorded for the month of May since measurements began." It said highs of 33C to 36C in regions were expected, adding that the spell was likely to last at least until the end of the week. French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu was to hold a meeting Thursday with key ministers to go over government preparations for the heat wave. The capital, Paris, on Saturday notched up its first temperature above 30C of the year, hitting 31.9C. On Sunday, a man died during a 10-kilometer running race in Paris, civil defense services said, while 10 more had to be taken to hospital in critical condition after a race in the capital's suburb of Maisons-Alfort, the authorities said. The sweltering heat on Monday melted tennis fans at Roland-Garros in Paris. In Spain, the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) warned the "extraordinarily high temperatures for this time of year" will continue across the country all week, except in the Canary Islands, in the Atlantic Ocean, off the northwest coast of Africa. "Widespread tropical nights" are also forecast in southwestern Spain from Wednesday, with temperatures peaking from Wednesday to Friday at between 36C and 38C, it wrote on X. Farther east, Italy's Lazio region, which includes Rome, on Monday approved rules limiting work in conditions "with prolonged exposure in the sun" between 12:30 p.m. and 4:00 p.m. The measures apply, for example, to farms, construction sites, and in the logistics sector and apply until September 15.

Exceptionally early heat wave shatters records and brings deaths in Europe --The U.K. smashed a century-old temperature record for the second time in 24 hours on Tuesday as a spring heat wave continued to scorch parts of Western Europe, triggering government warnings about risks to life. Several drownings were reported in Britain and France as people tried to cool down.A temperature of 35 Celsius (95 Fahrenheit) was recorded at London's Kew Gardens and Heathrow Airport, Britain's Met Office weather service said, breaking the 34.8 C (94.6 F) record set a day earlier at Kew. The provisional readings smashed the long-standing record of 32.8 C (91.4 F) set in 1922 and matched in 1944.London also recorded a rare "tropical night," defined as one in which the temperature does not fall below 20 C (68 F).Records also fell in France, where temperatures reached 36 C (97 F) on Monday in the country's southwest and widely remained above 20 C at night.The national weather service, Météo-France, said a "heat dome," with heat held in place by a high-pressure weather front, was producing temperatures more than 10 degrees Celsius above what used to be usual for this time of year. Unpredictable and extreme weather are becoming more frequent as Earth's warming builds. Experts say unprecedented and deadly weather extremes that sometimes strike at abnormal times and in unusual places are putting more people in danger.The U.K. Health Security Agency issued an amber health alert for large parts of the country through Thursday, warning of a potential health risk, particularly among older people, at the hottest times of the day. The U.K. is used to moderate temperatures, and many homes, schools and businesses do not have air conditioning.At least three teenagers died in apparent drownings in U.K. lakes and reservoirs, and a 60-year-old man died in the sea in southwest England, authorities said.French government spokesperson Maud Bregeon said there have been reports of at least seven deaths potentially related to high temperatures, including five drownings and two deaths in sports competitions.The early heat wave has struck before the annual summer window when lifeguards watch over bathers at popular beaches, increasing risks. On France's Atlantic seaboard, where magnificent beaches have powerful riptides, officials reported a rash of emergencies in the surf, with two drowning deaths on Sunday at popular resorts in the Gironde region in the southwest.The top regional administrator, Sophie Brocas, urged beachgoers "to exercise the utmost caution."The unseasonable heat extended to Spain, where weather service spokesperson Rubén del Campo said "we find ourselves with temperatures we normally see in the middle of the summer now in the month of May."He said Seville hit 38 C (100 F) over the weekend, while large parts of the Iberian Peninsula saw temperatures 5 to 10 degrees Celsius higher than normal. And in Rome, temperatures were expected to reach 32 degrees C (89.6 F) on Tuesday.

Record temps as spring heat wave bakes Europe -  People in western Europe turned to fans and fountains as they sweltered through a record-breaking heat wave Tuesday, with temperatures set to soar even further. Hit by a so-called "heat dome" of warm air from northern Africa that is pushing the mercury well above normal levels for May, some Europeans even admitted they were considering getting air conditioning, in a region famously averse.Baking in a bright London sun, 47-year-old Gurjit Gill, who works in banking, said he was happy to be going into work—because of the air con."I'm thinking about actually maybe getting an AC unit, because the bedrooms at nighttime are quite unbearable," he told AFP.People across western Europe swarmed beaches, braved streets clutching handheld fans and umbrellas to fend off the sun, and went for a dip or splashed themselves wherever they could—including at Rome's Barcaccia fountain and bubblers in the Jardin du Palais Royal in Paris.Players sought shelter from the heat at the French Open tennis championships in Paris.The UK reported its hottest-ever day for May, at 35.1C at Kew Gardens, in southwest London—breaking a record of 34.8C set at the same location Monday—as a high-pressure system trapped warm air over western Europe.In France, which also logged its hottest-ever May day Monday and then again on Tuesday, the weather agency said the heat wave could last through the week, predicting temperatures could go as high as 39C in some areas."We are not in an emergency situation," Health Minister Stephanie Rist said, but added, "We need to be wary of these heat waves, even if we're starting to get used to them."Tennis fans in Paris baked in temperatures of 33C at the French Open, with players battling through heat that Norway's Casper Ruud said left him feeling "like a zombie."The heatwave is being blamed on a heat dome of trapped air from north Africa.We now have the climate of the Mediterranean countries in the summer but we don't have the buildings and offices built for a Mediterranean climate," he added, calling for action. French authorities on Tuesday reported at least seven deaths linked to the heat wave—five of which were drownings, as many people sought relief at water spots, even though lifeguard supervision on beaches is not due to start in many areas until July.Authorities in Britain said four teens had drowned in England since Sunday.A record May temperature of 28.8C was recorded at two of Ireland's weather stations amid the current blast of heat, Met Eireann data showed.

Great Lakes shipping lost third of season to ‘inadequate icebreaking’ - The Lake Carriers’ Association said in a report this week that US-flagged shipping on the Great Lakes lost 82 ship days — a third of its 2026 season — because of “inadequate icebreaking” operations from the US Coast Guard.   “We only get nine months of shipping,” Eric Peace, the vice president of the association, said. “It’s a loss of a significant amount of time.” Data from the US Coast Guard shows it assisted more than 400 vessels during the shipping season and spent around 3,000 hours breaking ice in the Great Lakes region.The Lake Carriers’ Association said in a report this week that US-flagged shipping on the Great Lakes lost 82 ship days — a third of its 2026 season — because of “inadequate icebreaking” operations from the US Coast Guard.  “We only get nine months of shipping,” Eric Peace, the vice president of the association, said. “It’s a loss of a significant amount of time.” Data from the US Coast Guard shows it assisted more than 400 vessels during the shipping season and spent around 3,000 hours breaking ice in the Great Lakes region.“During the 135-day operational period, Dec. 9 to April 23, the Coast Guard successfully facilitated the safe and efficient movement of vital commercial vessel traffic,” wrote US Coast Guard Chief Petty Officer Brandon Giles in a statement.

Tropical cyclones now release ocean carbon, but warming could flip role by 2035 - The ocean is an important carbon sink that absorbs 20–30% of the total anthropogenic CO₂ emissions in the industrial era (1.0–3.0 Pg annually, 1 Pg = 10¹⁵ g). Tropical cyclones are among the most devastating weather systems that profoundly disturb the upper ocean. However, their role in the global carbon cycle has been controversial: do tropical cyclones lead to net carbon absorption or release by the ocean, and does it matter?Now, an international team has synthesized various observations to construct a daily available dataset of global air-sea CO₂ flux, based on which the evolving role of tropical cyclones in the global carbon cycle under global warming has been quantified.Here's what they've found:

• Tropical cyclones cause net ocean carbon outgassing. Strong winds of tropical cyclones greatly enhance sea-to-air CO₂ transfer, although the sea surface cooling left behind by tropical cyclones contributes to ocean carbon uptake and partly offsets the carbon outgassing.
• The net outgassing is decreasing. Tropical cyclones contribute about 16% of the global annual carbon flux during 1993–1997, but that fraction decreases to merely 4.5% during 2016–2020. This decrease is because global warming leads to a sharpened vertical temperature gradient in the upper ocean, so that stronger sea surface cooling occurs after tropical cyclones and causes larger ocean carbon uptake.
• Carbon mitigation faces mounting pressure. If anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions remain high, tropical cyclones could reverse their role after about 2035—switching from ocean carbon outgassing to carbon uptake, thereby accelerating ocean acidification.

The study, published in Nature Geoscience, reveals that tropical cyclones have contributed about 9% to 23% of ocean carbon outgassing in the main basins since 1993, on average. However, this contribution has decreased significantly in recent decades, falling to more than half of that level by the 2010s. If anthropogenic CO₂ emissions remain at a high level in the future, tropical cyclones might instead cause net ocean uptake.

The impact of microplastics on ocean carbon uptake  - Marine microplastics affect algae's ability to grow and photosynthesize. Researchers have now calculated what impact this has on the greenhouse effect and the ocean's ability to absorb carbon dioxide. You have probably heard this before: more than 70% of our planet is covered by oceans. Nearly half of all photosynthesis on Earth takes place in the ocean, and this is largely thanks to microplankton—tiny, single-celled plants that drift freely in the upper, sunlit layers of the water column. When these tiny algae bloom, they do so by converting sunlight, water, and carbon dioxide into oxygen and energy-rich sugars, the latter of which are used to build new algae cells. Unfortunately, algae have now got a new marine neighbor to contend with. Microplastics (tiny plastic particles) are currently found everywhere in the ocean—from the most densely populated coastal areas to remote waters in the Arctic and Antarctic."The ocean plays a crucial role in absorbing carbon from the atmosphere. Between 25 and 30% of all human-generated CO₂ is absorbed by the ocean. Phytoplankton plays an important role in this process. So, what happens if marine microplastics affect the plankton?" Francesca Verones and her colleagues at NTNU's Department of Energy and Process Engineering are working to quantify the impact of plastic on the ocean—not merely in terms of localized pollution, but in relation to everything the ocean means to us: as a source of food, as a carbon sink, and as a recreational area."We are investigating how plastic affects what we call ecosystem services—meaning the services we receive from ecosystems. For example, we can view the fact that the ocean absorbs CO₂ from the atmosphere as a service that the ocean provides for us," The researchers have collected phytoplankton data from various climate zones around the world and used laboratory data to determine the extent to which growth is limited by microplastics. They have then used this data to calculate the average impact that a certain concentration of microplastics will have on algae in different regions or climate zones, as well as on a global scale."Microplastics affect algal growth in various ways. The toxicity of certain types of plastics, such as PVC, is a problem in its own right, but plastic can also reduce the amount of sunlight that penetrates deeper into the water column, causing physical damage or leading to oxidative stress in the algae cells," explained Verones.  The results of the study, published in Ecosystem Services, show that the negative impact on carbon uptake was greatest in arid and tropical regions. These climate zones have the highest carbon uptake and are also the most vulnerable to the harmful effects of microplastics. "In these areas, we found that microplastics could reduce carbon uptake by 25,000 and 48,000 [metric] tons, respectively, over the course of a year. Although it may sound a lot, it is not a huge percentage," emphasized Verones. The total amount of carbon absorbed by the ocean in a year is estimated at 2 billion metric tons. "But we must bear in mind that the amount of microplastics in the ocean is increasing all the time. All the plastic that is discarded in the natural environment will eventually end up in the ocean. So the concentrations are going to keep on increasing," she said.

FIFA's huge World Cup to generate unprecedented cash and CO₂ - The biggest and most lucrative ever World Cup this summer will also set a record for the most-polluting sporting event in history, environmental experts say. "Unlike the case of the Olympic Games, where the carbon footprints have been reducing over the last several editions, this is totally opposite in the case of FIFA men's World Cup," David Gogishvili, a geographer at the University of Lausanne (Unil), told AFP. The summer's World Cup has been expanded to 48 teams for the first time. It will be played in three countries—Mexico, Canada and the United States—also for the first time. It will generate unprecedented revenue but, Unil's research shows, "produce the largest carbon footprint in the history of international sport." Unil's calculations for CO2-generated emissions range from five to nine million tonnes compared to "around 1.75 million tonnes" for the 2024 Paris Olympics, Gogishvili continued. That figure far surpasses the estimated 2.17 million tonnes of CO2 generated by Russia in 2018, in a far-flung World Cup that involved 40 fewer matches, and the 3.17m tonnes from Qatar in 2022, in a highly compact event criticized for its hastily constructed, oversized and air-conditioned stadiums. All 16 venues for this summer, from the "smallest" in Toronto with 45,000 seats, to the largest in Arlington, Texas, which holds 94,000 seats, already existed when the Games were awarded, a point highlighted in 2018 by the "United 2026" bid. The main issue is the vast span between stadiums. The distance between Miami and Vancouver is more than 4,500 kilometers. That will increase the biggest source of CO2 emissions for international events: air travel for teams, officials, media, and especially the "more than five million fans" targeted by FIFA. Bosnia and Herzegovina, for example, will travel 5,040 kilometers to play group games in Toronto, Los Angeles and finally Seattle. FIFA president Gianni Infantino, who proclaimed his "determination" to combat climate change at COP26 in Glasgow, has pledged to "measure, reduce and offset" emissions related to its World Cups. But, reprimanded in June 2023 by the Swiss Fairness Commission (CSL) for misleadingly promoting the "climate neutrality" of the 2022 World Cup, FIFA has refrained from any guarantees on 2026. Environmental analysts agree that the best way to reduce the impact of mega-competitions is to limit their scale, as the International Olympic Committee has done with its quota of 10,500 athletes for the Summer Games, said Gogishvili. By increasing its flagship tournament from 32 to 48 teams, a year after increasing its World Club Cup from seven to 32 teams, FIFA is doing the exact opposite. The climate cost of any international match, is "26 to 42 times greater than an elite match" at the national level, said a 2025 report published by the New Weather Institute think tank. "A single match during the final stages of the men's World Cup is responsible for 44,000 to 72,000 tonnes of CO2," said the report's writers from the British-based Scientists for Global Responsibility. That, they calculated, was the equivalent to the emissions of 31,500 to 51,500 British cars over an entire year. FIFA's "insatiable appetite for growth," said Gogishvili, leads to more matches and, inevitably, "more athletes, more fans, more hotel infrastructure, more flights, it's kind of a never-ending cycle." The 2030 World Cup will be spread across six countries and three continents. It kicks off with a trio of matches in Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay before switching to hosts Morocco, Spain and Portugal for the remaining 101 matches. The 2034 World Cup will be held in Saudi Arabia, in a climate comparable to that of Qatar but with 40 more matches in a much larger country. Saudi giant Aramco, the world's largest oil company, became a major sponsor of FIFA in 2024.

Senate panel rejects California governor’s climate spending plan - --California state senators voted Thursday to reject Gov. Gavin Newsom’s proposed spending plan for the state’s carbon auction revenues. The vote was widely seen as a protest against controversial changes that could cut billions of dollars from the state’s climate funding pot. The Senate’s Budget Subcommittee 2 on Resources, Environmental Protection and Energy voted Thursday morning to reject Newsom’s proposed spending plan for the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund.That fund, also known as GGRF, receives roughly $3 billion to $4 billion a year from the sale of pollution permits, which helps pay for high-speed rail, Cal Fire and a long list of clean transportation, water, energy and environmental justice programs. The vote comes as the California Air Resources Board is weighing major changes to the state’s cap-and-invest program, the carbon market that generates the revenue. Those changes are meant to ease costs for oil refineries and other industries, but legislative analysts and advocates warn they could also reduce auction revenue by up to $2 billion a year in future years.

EU Commission urges governments to repurpose €20B fund to tackle energy crisis - The European Commission on Thursday urged national governments to repurpose up to €20 billion in existing EU funds to tackle the energy crisis. The executive vice president for cohesion and reforms, Raffaele Fitto, told governments to use the Just Transition Fund (JTF) — a cash pot designed to soften the consequences of the climate transition on regions — to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. “They could help alleviate some of the current challenges, such as how to reduce dependence on fossil fuel and exposure to instability of energy markets, and create at the same time lasting impact for the longer term,” Fitto wrote in a letter to 27 ministers seen by POLITICO. The letter comes amid mounting pressure from EU countries — led by Italy — on the commission to provide additional support to businesses and households facing higher energy bills resulting from the war in the Middle East.

A chemical tank in California has cracked. Here’s what to know : NPR - Some 50,000 residents of Garden Grove, California remain under an evacuation order Sunday as emergency response teams struggle to deal with a potentially explosive situation at a nearby aerospace manufacturing plant. Overnight, the chemical tank appeared to have cracked.The tank, which is located in the southeastern corner of the GKN Aerospace facility in Garden Grove, California, holds somewhere around 7,000 gallons of methyl methacrylate, a highly toxic, highly flammable chemical used in the manufacturing of resins and plastics.Late Saturday, firefighters approached the tank to "get eyes" on what was happening, TJ McGovern, interim county fire chief for the Orange County Fire Authority, said in a post on social media. "What they found was a potential crack in the tank." The incident at GKN Aerospace began Thursday, according to emergency responders. It remains unclear exactly what went wrong, but the chemicals in the tank began to exceed a safe temperature. Methyl methacrylate is a clear, colorless liquid that is highly volatile and releases energy exothermically when it reacts. If that reaction occurs in a container, then it can cause a sudden pressure build up, effectively turning the container into an explosive.That's exactly what happened at a plant in the United Kingdom in October 2009. According to one report, an explosion at a resin manufacturing site involving the chemical destroyed the factory and caused blast damage to adjacent buildings. Nobody was killed, but windows were blown out as far as 600 ft. from the blast site.The tank in California suffered damage and had already begun to bulge outward, according to Craig Covey, the incident commander at Orange County Fire. The tank is being continuously sprayed with water to keep it cool. It sits next to two other tanks, one of which was safely drained and neutralized, and the other of which seems stable for now.Speaking on Friday, Covey told reporters that if the damaged tank cracked, it could actually be the best outcome. While far from ideal, it would be better if the 7,000 gallons leaked out slowly rather than sparking an explosion inside the tank.The company which owns the plant, GKN Aerospace, said on Sunday that it was "working around the clock to mitigate the risk of a leak."The risks are numerous – methyl methacrylate can irritate the skin and eyes. It can also cause respiratory issues and neurological symptoms including headache and lethargy. More long-term exposure can cause lung and organ damage.There's less information available on what the environmental impacts might be should the chemical spill, but they're unlikely to be good.In anticipation of a possible leak, "we've created containment barriers," Covey said on Friday. Firefighters have already laid down sand and other materials to try and stem the flow of the chemical into nearby storm drains and waterways, he told reporters. Residents are being evacuated to protect against both the potential of a large blast and fumes that an explosion would release. Because the fire department can't predict which way those fumes might travel, they're having to evacuate a large area around the plant.

Evacuation zone shrinks after 'worst-case scenario' of Southern California chemical tank explosion averted, officials say - The evacuation zone around a failing chemical tank in Southern California is shrinking after officials said the "worst-case scenario" of a catastrophic explosion has been averted.About 16,000 people remain under evacuation orders, Garden Grove Police Chief Amir El-Farra said during a press briefing Monday evening. That's down from 50,000 in the city of Garden Grove and several surrounding communities at the height of the crisis when officials thought they faced only two options: an explosion or a chemical spill."The most catastrophic and worst-case scenario was mitigated and resolved," Orange County Fire Authority (OCFA) Interim Chief TJ McGovern said during the evening press briefing.Officials said earlier Monday the crisis is not fully averted, but if an explosion or leak were to occur, it would be significantly smaller than the initial worst-case scenario.The tank is located at an aerospace facility in Garden Grove, about 30 miles south of Los Angeles. Earlier Monday, local authorities said the temperature was declining within the chemical tank, located at an aerospace facility, eliminating concerns of an explosion, local authorities said on Monday morning.

1 confirmed dead, 9 others missing after chemical implosion at facility in SW Washington  — At least one fatality has been confirmed in the chemical implosion at the Nippon facility in Longview, Wash., on Tuesday morning. Nine employees are still missing. First responders were initially called out to the scene at the Nippon Dynawave Packaging Facility just before 7:20 a.m. The Nippon facility is located in the 3400 block of Industrial Way (Highway 432). Residents were have been asked to avoid the area. A vat of “white liquor” at the facility imploded, according to Longview Fire Officials. Multiple people suffered chemical burns and other injuries in the implosion. White liquor is a strong alkaline liquid made mostly of sodium hydroxide and sodium sulfide. In the Kraft process, it is used to cook wood chips and turn them into pulp for papermaking by dissolving the substances that hold the wood fibers together. It is considered extremely dangerous and is highly corrosive. In an update just after 4:30 p.m., officials said the tank that imploded held approximately 900,000 gallons of white liquor. Authorities estimate that 90,000 gallons of the liquid may still be remaining inside the tank. The cause has not yet been determined. Officials said 10 people were taken to the hospital, including nine Nippon employees and one responding firefighter. One Nippon employee was pronounced dead at the hospital. On Tuesday evening officials gave an update and said the firefighter has been treated and released. The injured were taken to PeaceHealth St. John Medical Center in Longview and PeaceHealth Southwest Medical Center in Vancouver. The injuries ranged from critical to minor, officials said. In an update on Tuesday night around 7 p.m., officials said there is currently no threat to the surrounding community, and that the situation is "extremely complex" due to ongoing hazards. The tank remains unstable, creating a dangerous situation. Various Washington state officials, including Gov. Bob Ferguson, U.S. Senator Patty Murray, U.S. Representative Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and others attended a press conference, in which it was announced that the facility needs better structural integrity before any additional recovery operations can continue. “How that gets stabilized is what our primary goal is -- stabilizing the tank, one, removing the liquid from instead the tank, two, then accessing the victims that we are able to locate and recover. Our secondary goal is to return all of the workers to their families to have closure for this incident,” said Cowlitz 2 Fire and Rescue Chief Scott Goldstein. Officials stated recovery efforts will continue Wednesday, and more updates will be given tomorrow morning. Gov. Bob Ferguson said at the conference that he had mobilized the Washington National Guard Civil Support Team to assist the Department of Ecology in monitoring the air. He also said he directed the National Guard Homeland Response Force to be onsite to help with search and recovery efforts, as well as decontamination. A spokesperson for PeaceHealth later issued a statement, saying it had received nine patients from the incident. Of those patients, PeaceHealth said one died, two were transferred, and six are in fair condition. PeaceHealth said it does not expect any additional patients. The injured firefighter was treated and released. No identities will be released until families are notified.

Search to recover 9 missing employees to resume after deadly chemical tank rupture in Washington --Search crews are expected to navigate treacherous circumstances when they renew efforts to find nine people still missing a day after a deadly chemical tank rupture at a paper plant in Washington state. At least one person was killed and nine people were injured after a 900,000-gallon tank containing hazardous chemicals ruptured Tuesday morning at the Nippon Dynawave Packaging Co. facility in Longview. About 90,000 gallons of material could still be inside the damaged tank, officials said. The tank contained a mixture called white liquor, which is used in paper-making processes and can cause severe burns when it comes into contact with skin. Beyond those known to be injured or killed, nine facility employees were still missing Tuesday evening. Authorities did not say they expected to find any more survivors. “At the moment, we are not aware of any rescues that are yet to be made,” Cowlitz County fire official Scott Goldstein said Tuesday. Recovery efforts were halted Tuesday evening due to safety concerns about the unstable tank, Goldstein said. The tank could have fallen on first responders, who could also be exposed to corrosive chemicals that the plant normally uses to turn wood chips into pulp. Local, regional and state agencies worked with facility staff to “reinforce and stabilize the site” to help with recovery efforts, which could safely resume Wednesday morning, fire officials said in a release. Details about how the rupture happened weren’t immediately available. CNN has sought comment from Nippon Dynawave Packaging about the incident. There is no threat to the surrounding community, but people should avoid the area, the Longview Fire Department said. The incident unfolded around 7:30 a.m. Tuesday at the Nippon Dynawave Packaging Co. facility, which produces pulp used to make paper products and paperboard for items like cartons and cups. The facility is in Longview, about 50 miles north of Portland, Oregon, and about 130 miles south of Seattle.  The injured include eight employees and one firefighter, who was treated and released, fire officials said Tuesday. Earlier, officials said “there were fatalities” related to an implosion.The rupture is the latest in a series of incidents at industrial facilities, mills and plants in recent months – some of which have been deadly. In Southern California this past week, officials raced to prevent an overheating chemical tank from exploding, prompting tens of thousands of residents to evacuate. A crack in the tank eased pressure in the tank, eliminating the risk of a catastrophic blast. In April, a chemical leak involving nitric acid and another substance at a West Virginia plant killed two people and injured more than a dozen others, The Associated Press reported. Last October, more than 24,000 pounds of explosives detonated at a Tennessee explosives plant, killing 16 employees. The blast was so powerful, it registered as a 1.6 magnitude earthquake. Two months before that, an explosion at a US Steel plant in Pennsylvania killed two workers and injured more than 10 others, one of whom was trapped in rubble, the AP reported.

Satellites track SO₂ emissions following March 2026 refinery fires in Tehran, Iran - On the evening of March 7, 2026, a series of explosions and fires occurred at multiple oil storage and refining facilities in Tehran, Iran. (NB: after they were bombed!) A research team has utilized a constellation of satellites to investigate and quantify this sulfur dioxide (SO₂) pollution event.The results of their study are published in the journal Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. There is a lack of high-quality, real-time ground-based atmospheric monitoring in the Middle East. This leaves a "data vacuum" when industrial disasters occur.  "We aimed to demonstrate that satellite remote sensing can fill this gap by providing wide spatial coverage and frequent observations to monitor atmospheric pollutants over large areas," said Professor Peng Zhang, Meteorological Observation Center, China Meteorological Administration.  When the March 7 explosions and fires occurred, the Fardis, Shahran, and Aghdasieh depots, as well as the Tehran Oil Refinery were devastated. The Shahran Oil Depot was particularly hard-hit, with burning oil entering the city's sewer system and igniting urban green belts, creating a major source of toxic smoke. Local residents reported immediate health impacts, such as respiratory distress, skin irritation, and a "bitter taste" in the mouth. Scientists are particularly concerned with SO₂ pollution because of its strong irritant and corrosive properties. The combustion of petroleum products mixed with local rainfall also produced "black rain," a corrosive mixture of oil droplets and soot. As a major precursor of acid rain, it poses a substantial threat to the regional atmospheric environment and public health.

AI-fueled cyberattacks threaten water sector, experts say - Artificial intelligence is making it easier for bad actors to initiate cyberattacks on water infrastructure, yet the water sector remains inadequately prepared, a panel of experts told lawmakers Thursday.Federal agencies are warning of an uptick in cyberattacks from foreign adversaries, including hackers with ties to Iran. Still, despite the need for continued federal support, the Trump administration is taking on a less central role in water infrastructure protection, according to the top cybersecurity expert at the Government Accountability Office.“It has become less clear what leadership role the federal government plans to take,” said David Hinchman, director of information technology and cybersecurity at GAO. “The current administration has stated that it will increasingly defer to state and local governments to take the lead in infrastructure protection but has not yet provided details in this departure from the federal government’s historic role.”Hinchman’s remarks came during a hearing before the House Science, Space and Technology Subcommittee on Environment. In addition to stressing the importance of federal oversight in bolstering cyber preparedness for the water sector, witnesses called for increased funding and research to address the problem.

Committee approves highway bill after sparring over EV fees, climate repeals - - The House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee approved its surface transportation bill early Friday after dismissing Democratic amendments on electric vehicle fees, environmental reviews and the restoration of climate programs that the bill proposes to repeal.The “BUILD America 250 Act,” from Chair Sam Graves (R-Mo.) and ranking member Rick Larsen (D-Wash.), advanced 62-2. It sets up a clash with the Senate later this year over the EV fees, a railway safety proposal and other contentious provisions.Graves and Larsen touted the bill’s proposed funding increases for bridge construction and repairs, as well as the new fees on lower-emission vehicles — the first new revenue for the Highway Trust Fund since the early 1990s.Members lauded proposed boosts for highways and transit, as well as provisions that would ease environmental reviews for certain infrastructure projects, update a wildlife crossing program and study fire risks associated with lithium-ion batteries.

House spending plan slaps hefty inspection fees on offshore wind projects - The House Republican spending bill for the Interior Department contains another potential punch for the beleaguered offshore wind industry: big new fees. The fiscal 2027 Interior-Environment spending bill, which a House Appropriations subcommittee advanced last week, would impose a range of fees on offshore wind projects. Those are broken into annual fees and physical inspection fees. Annual fees would be $7,300 for an onshore inspection visit to an offshore wind project’s control center and $15,400 for a visual inspection of a wind turbine. Further physical inspections of a wind turbine or substation would cost $72,800. The new fees largely reflect the White House’s proposed budget for Interior, released in March. The fees could amount to much more than is paid by offshore oil companies for inspections, given that the language calls for per-turbine inspections and wind farms include many turbines: 62 for the newly running Vineyard Wind project off Massachusetts and more than 170 anticipated for a project under construction off the coast of Virginia. “This appears as another direct effort to constrain the offshore wind industry,” said Timothy Fox, managing director of ClearView Energy Partners, in an email. “The Trump Administration has already significantly constrained proposed offshore wind projects and may hope the inspection fees undermine the viability of projects already in service.” Inspection fees and other similar charges are common in the energy sector, and wind industry players have long expected a fee schedule was in the offing. Offshore wind did not take off in the U.S. until the Biden administration, with several projects under construction right now along the East Coast. Vineyard Wind finished construction in March and is working to bring all of its turbines online, while Revolution Wind off the coast of Rhode Island has nearly installed all of its 65 turbines and has begun to send power to the grid. But the Trump administration has hammered wind energy by canceling leases, trying to block projects currently being built and paying companies to abandon their plans. An Interior spokesperson declined to comment on the fee language. Spokespeople for Republican appropriators did not respond to a request for comment. The fees would be overseen by the administration’s planned new Marine Minerals Administration, an agency that combines the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management and the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement to oversee offshore oil and gas and wind power. In the administration’s budget justification, officials wrote that the new fees are needed following the expansion of offshore wind during the Biden administration. “Based on this expansion, and so that offshore wind operators are not held to different standards than oil and gas companies, MMA is proposing inspection fees to offset MMA’s costs,” the administration wrote in its budget justification. But Democrats in Congress, analysts and former officials are skeptical that the fees are intended to implement a level playing field, saying they appear instead to reflect President Donald Trump’s antipathy for wind energy.

Forest bills hearing rekindles debate over logging limits - A House subcommittee Wednesday revisited the long-running debate about barring logging in roadless areas of national forests, with few signs that the battle lines have changed. The Natural Resources Subcommittee on Federal Lands took up the issue at a hearing on several bills, including Wyoming Republican Rep. Harriet Hageman’s H.R. 7695, which would rescind the roadless area conservation rule of 2001. Divisions on the issue broke down along the usual lines, with Hageman and other Republicans on the panel blaming the restrictions for allowing Western forests to become overgrown, increasing the risk of wildfire. Democrats, including Natural Resources ranking member Jared Huffman of California, said the roadless-area rule has been a success, protecting wild areas while allowing limited forest thinning and, in some places, mining and energy development.

Energy, AI groups call for expanding streamlined water permits -   Lobbyists for AI data centers, mining companies and other major industries are urging the Trump administration to expand the use of streamlined permits under the Clean Water Act. The Army Corps of Engineers is soliciting feedback on ways to make the Nationwide Permit Program more efficient and to limit “unnecessary review.” Although the agency in December authorized the permits for the next five years, it is now considering additional changes.Unlike standard permits that require a review of specific, local impacts to wetlands and streams, nationwide permits authorize categories of projects, including housing complexes, transmission lines and commercial facilities like data centers. Projects that qualify get approved much more quickly on average compared to standard permits, and the public does not have an opportunity to comment on individual projects. But the Army Corps limits nationwide permits to projects with “no more than minimal” adverse impacts to federal waters, and it can still require companies to mitigate for water quality or wetland damages.

Some PA Republican Legislators Lose Their Way on Data Center Issue - Marcellus Drilling News -- Sen. Jarrett Coleman (R-Bucks/Lehigh) and Rep. Jamie Walsh (R-Luzerne) have introduced legislation in Pennsylvania to address the rapid expansion of data centers. Their proposed bills aim to repeal a 2021 tax exemption that incentivizes data centers to locate in the state. The bills would also empower municipalities to implement an 18-month moratorium on data center development applications. With all due respect, these two Republicans have lost their way and are out of their minds.

Gov. Shapiro Issues Strict Standards for Data Center Tax Breaks - Marcellus Drilling News -- Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro introduced new “Responsible Infrastructure Development (GRID) Standards” for data center developers yesterday. These standards aim to tie tax breaks to sustainability and transparency, addressing concerns about energy affordability, pollution, noise, and overall quality of life. Under Shapiro’s GRID plan, data center developers seeking tax exemptions would need to demonstrate that they meet requirements to protect energy affordability, promote transparency and community engagement, support workforce development, and safeguard the environment. Projects would also be required to incorporate so-called clean energy sources and adhere to strict efficiency and environmental protection measures.

PA GOP Gov. Candidate Garrity Calls for Pause on Data Centers - Marcellus Drilling News -– Pennsylvania Republican gubernatorial candidate Stacy Garrity (currently the State Treasurer) yesterday called for a “total pause” on Pennsylvania A.I. data center development, arguing communities need time to update zoning, protect neighborhoods and farmland, strengthen noise rules, and secure transparency on water, energy, health, infrastructure, taxpayer, and ratepayer impacts. While we have expressed similar sentiment that common-sense guidelines are needed for data centers regarding water, noise, and energy use, we strongly disagree with a total statewide (and indefinite) “pause” on new projects. It sends the exact WRONG signal to the tech industry — that both Republicans and Democrats in the state are now blocking data centers in the Keystone State. Pausing or blocking data centers jeopardizes $92 billion worth of private investment in the state.

Wake Up! The Left is Peddling Delusional Data Center Panic -- Marcellus Drilling News -  MDN first tipped you back in July 2025 that the Democrat anti-fracking movement in Pennsylvania (and beyond) was rapidly becoming anti-data center (see PA Antis Hate Fossil Fuels, Shale Drilling, and Now…Data Centers). The trend blossomed, with national and international groups joining the chorus against data centers. Unfortunately, even some Republicans are now falling for the lie in places like Pennsylvania (see Some PA Republican Legislators Lose Their Way on Data Center Issue). There is zero doubt that the anti-fracking crowd is now anti-data center, and it’s threatening our national security. It’s time for the U.S. to wake up and pull our collective heads out of our collective rear ends.

OH Gov. DeWine Announces Pause of Data Center Tax Exemption  - Marcellus Drilling News -- Ohio Governor Mike DeWine announced on May 27, 2026, that he has directed the chair of the Ohio Tax Credit Authority to pause consideration of any new data center tax exemption requests. The pause comes while the Ohio General Assembly’s Joint Data Center Committee “studies” the growth of data centers in the state. DeWine noted that data centers previously granted sales and use tax benefits reported a total capital investment of $27.2 billion in 2025. The Tax Credit Authority will stop accepting new exemption proposals after a meeting next Monday, where it will consider one final proposal. DeWine said the move is a suspension of new exemptions, NOT a data center ban.

Warren, OH Council Proposes Economic Suicide via Data Center Ban -- Marcellus Drilling News -- - The Warren, OH, City Council introduced legislation to impose a permanent ban on new data centers, citing concerns about water supply, wastewater infrastructure, utility costs, and the city’s residential character. Sponsored by Democrats, the proposed ordinance argues that data centers place unsustainable demands on city systems, particularly following a costly wastewater plant upgrade. One Council Democrat drew parallels between data centers and past fracking “disappointments” in the region, emphasizing water as the community’s most critical resource.

Billion-watt AI campus planned for Kentucky's EastPark --A new project branded the “Muskie Data Campus” has been announced for eastern Kentucky, with a Maryland-based company describing the large-scale development as “strategically located” for artificial intelligence and high-performance computing infrastructure. The announcement came Tuesday from TeraWulf Inc., stating it has acquired a hyperscale high-performance computing development site located within the EastPark Industrial Park, which traverses Greenup, Boyd and Carter counties.

Homeowners Face Eminent Domain Bulldozers As Data Centers Demand Ever More Power -- Georgia Power isn’t negotiating anymore. The Southern Company subsidiary is seizing dozens of homes and hundreds of easements across Coweta and Fayette counties to ram through a 35-mile, 500-kilovolt transmission line that will feed at least four massive AI data centers. Project Wansley is just the latest flashpoint in a backlash that has been building for months. At least 20 to 30 homes face outright demolition. Another 300-plus properties will get permanent easements for towers planted in backyards and next to pools. But residents like Ansley Brown are fighting back. Her mother bought their family home in 2003 through a USDA rural development loan for single mothers. Now the utility wants the property for the corridor. Brown’s viral TikTok exposing the lowball offers (she says $70,000 to $100,000 below market) has racked up millions of views and drawn state lawmakers into the fight.  Georgia Power says the line is essential. The company is racing to add roughly 10 gigawatts of new generating capacity over the next five years, with executives openly stating that  about 80% of that power will go to data centers. Meanwhile, transmission has become the bottleneck, and utilities are turning to eminent domain to clear the path. This isn’t happening in isolation. We’ve been pounding the table on data center resistance, from Northern Virginia counties rejecting new substations to Texas communities suing over water drawdowns and power rate spikes. The pattern is the same: hyperscale demand collides with local infrastructure limits, and the costs get socialized while the profits stay private.Electricity prices are already feeling the pressure. Utilities across the Southeast and Midwest have warned of double-digit residential rate hikes tied directly to data center load growth. Georgia Power’s own filings show residential customers absorbing a growing share of the bill for transmission and generation built primarily for big tech. The same dynamic is playing out with Meta’s Georgia facilities, where local reporting has highlighted water quality complaints, including muddy runoff affecting nearby residents, alongside the power demands. We’ve seen this movie before with pipelines and wind farms. The difference now is the sheer scale of the load and the speed at which it’s arriving. Data centers don’t just want power; they want it yesterday, and they’re willing to let utilities use the state’s hammer to get it. The pushback in Georgia is a warning shot as more communities draw the same line.

Oklo COO Says Nuclear Waste Could Power America For 150 Years -Earlier this week, we covered Oklo’s approval by Chris Wright’s DOE to convert plutonium previously set for disposal into new fuel. “Fuel supply constraints are a key throttle to advanced reactor development,” Oklo CEO Jacob DeWitte said following the announcement. Jacob’s wife and Oklo’s COO Caroline DeWitte joined ZeroHedge and Radiant Energy Group’s Madison Hilly. Caroline laid out Oklo’s ambitious vision: recycle spent nuclear fuel, build fleets of reactors for AI hyperscalers like Meta, and turn what the industry currently treats as a liability (nuclear waste) into a strategic asset. And unlike many of the “PowerPoint reactor” startups flooding the space, she says they are already building. One of the company’s core theses is that the U.S. is sitting on a massive untapped energy reserve in the form of spent nuclear fuel already stockpiled around the country. “It has enough energy in it to power the entire country for 150 years. So let’s use it.” Unlike conventional light-water reactors, Oklo’s fast reactors are designed to utilize fuel currently treated as waste, potentially bypassing future uranium bottlenecks while lowering long-term fuel costs. The company is also pushing aggressively into isotope production, a market DeWitte suggested remains critically undersupplied after years of Western dependence on Russian supply chains. “Some of these isotopes… if you had a kilogram, it might be a trillion dollars.” Oklo is now racing to bring an isotope test reactor online in Texas and DeWitte says they hope to hit criticality around July 4th.

TC Energy to Build 42 Miles of Kentucky Pipe for Gas Plant - Marcellus Drilling News -- - Maysville Project map (click for larger version) Although TC Energy filed to build a new pipeline project in Kentucky last November, we’re just now learning about it. TC Energy is proposing the Maysville Project, a 42-mile pipeline expansion of its Columbia Gulf Transmission (CGT) System in Kentucky, to supply 340,000 dekatherms per day (328 MMcf/d) of Marcellus/Utica gas for East Kentucky Power Cooperative’s Hugh L. Spurlock Power Station in Maysville, KY. Traversing Rowan, Fleming, and Mason counties, this infrastructure project includes a new delivery meter station and interconnect in Maysville.

These Mason County properties are projected to house a new natural gas pipeline - — More than a week after Frances Sarver held a town hall to inform people about a proposed 41-mile natural gas pipeline running from Mason to Rowan Counties, WCPO visited the land that drove her to begin studying the issue. Sarver's parents have lived on 105 acres along KY-419 for more than three decades. Her grandfather bought the property around 1970, according to her father, Allen Pollitt."I told my wife when we built this house, I said the only way I'm moving again ... is when they take me out on a gurney," Pollitt said, looking out over the cattle grazing in a valley below. He said he still operates the farm at 90 years old. "I work this every day. In fact, it's probably the reason I'm still alive," he said.Pollitt said he now looks out from his front porch and worries about the metal pipe with orange ribbon sticking out of the ground a few hundred yards down the road. It marks the spot where TC Energy plans to run a new natural gas pipeline as part of its Maysville project.  "It will be trenched across, along the power line on the other side of the power line," he said, pointing out toward the horizon from his back porch. Pollitt said he's worried about what the construction could do to his herd and land, and he's concerned that potential malfunctions along the line when active could lead to an explosion. Another Mason County farm owner, Rebecca Cartmell, said TC Energy representatives came to her property around two years ago, requesting access to survey. She was hesitant, but said her brothers allowed the work to continue. We asked why she hadn't signed anything allowing TC Energy to begin work on the land."I think one of the main concerns is once they come through, they have rights to your property," Cartmell said. Both Pollitt and Cartmell told us they weren't against the line's construction, but they would like to see the path moved away from their land."Of course, we would love for it not to come across our property, but then we realize it will go through someone else's," Cartmell said.TC Energy is currently seeking permission to build the line from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, and public comment is open to share your concerns.

O&G Spending on AI to Grow from $25B in 2025 to $50B in 2035 - Marcellus Drilling News -The oil and gas industry not only benefits from the AI (data center) sector by supplying natural gas to power plants, it also benefits by *using* AI in its operations. Like just about every other business on the planet, O&G companies are now using (embedding) AI into their business. Here’s a startling statistic: In 2025, O&G companies worldwide spent a cumulative estimated $25 billion on AI, according to Rystad Energy. By 2035, that number will be an estimated $50 billion per year. Amazing! Are you looking for a hot hot hot job? Look at AI in O&G.

Big Green, NY DEC File Separate Lawsuits to Block Constitution Pipe -- Marcellus Drilling News -- Well, you knew this was going to happen. Last week, a group of disgusting Big Green groups and the New York State Attorney General both filed separate lawsuits in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit (2nd Circuit), challenging the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s (FERC) decision to resurrect the Constitution Pipeline under the existing (but dormant) docket. NY AG Tish James, representing the Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC), argues that a brand new review should be done by the state to evaluate the project for compliance with the federal Clean Water Act. You may recall that NY previously lost its right to evaluate the Constitution project by stretching out its review for years, causing FERC to overrule NY (see Victory! FERC Overrules NY DEC to Allow Constitution Pipeline).

FERC Seeks to Fast-Track Gas Infrastructure with Blanket Permits - Marcellus Drilling News -- Last Thursday (May 21), the commissioners of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) unanimously proposed significant changes to the agency’s natural gas blanket certificate program, the most substantial overhaul since 2006. The Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NOPR) aims to roughly double the cost thresholds for pipeline companies to build and modify infrastructure without extensive case-by-case approval. It also expands eligible project categories and, for the first time, extends streamlined authorization to certain LNG facility activities

US natural gas futures hover near one-week low as demand outlook slips -(Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures held near a one-week low on Tuesday after the long U.S. Memorial Day holiday weekend on forecasts for less demand next week than previously expected. On its second-to-last day as the front-month, gas futures for June delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 1.3 cents, or 0.4%, to settle at $2.894 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since May 14 for a second day in a row. Futures for July, which will soon be the front-month, were also little changed at around $3.01 per mmBtu. Looking forward, the 12-month NG12Mst and year-ahead NGYstc1 futures strips both fell to their lowest since December 2024. In the cash market, average gas prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas have remained in negative territory for a record 76 days in a row as pipeline constraints trap gas in the Permian region, the nation's biggest oil-producing shale basin. In the West, mild weather and ample hydropower supplies pushed spot power prices at South Path 15 W-SP15-IDX in Southern California into negative territory for the 12th time this year. Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to 109.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May, down from 109.8 bcfd in April and a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025. Analysts said mild weather earlier this spring allowed energy firms to inject more gas into storage than usual. But they noted recent output declines coupled with higher demand in recent weeks likely reduced the inventory surplus to around 6% above normal during the week ended May 22, down from roughly 7% above normal during the week ended May 15. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL Looking forward, meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly near normal through June 10. LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 99.7 bcfd this week to 98.3 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday, while the forecast for next week was lower. Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants fell from a monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April to 17.0 bcfd so far in May due to spring maintenance at several plants, including ExxonMobil/QatarEnergy's Golden Pass and Freeport LNG's plant in Texas.

Clashes Near Strait of Hormuz Cast Doubt on Peace Deal, Revive LNG Supply Risks  --Continued uncertainty over a peace deal between the United States and Iran propped up global commodity prices Tuesday. NGI North America LNG export flow tracker showing US LNG feed gas deliveries near 17.4 million Dth on May 26, 2026.  At a Glance:
Fighting also escalates in Ukraine
Heat wave provides further upside
Crude near $100

How the Marcellus/Utica Made the U.S. #1 in LNG Exports  - Marcellus Drilling News -- The Appalachian Basin, spanning Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Ohio, has become America’s premier natural gas province, producing over 35 billion cubic feet daily (Bcf/d) in 2024. Driven by hydraulic fracturing in the Marcellus and Utica shales, private mineral rights, and low breakeven costs below $2 per MMBtu, the basin has reshaped *global* energy markets. How? Infrastructure constraints (lack of pipelines) and Mid-Atlantic political opposition prevent local LNG export terminal development. Even so, Marcellus/Utica gas underwrites domestic power markets, fuels digital infrastructure, and indirectly propelled the United States to become the world’s leading LNG superpower by displacing Gulf Coast gas for export liquefaction.

U.S. LNG Feedgas Lingers at Lower Levels | RBN Energy  - U.S. LNG feedgas remains below recent peak levels as maintenance continues to curb demand, with one train offline at both Cameron and Freeport LNG.U.S. feedgas averaged about 17.4 Bcf/d last week (see blue-dotted line below), flat week-on-week, but flows should begin to climb at the end of this week as maintenance wraps up. Cameron appears to be nearing the end of its outage and Freeport will likely follow the week after. Cove Point, Elba Island, Calcasieu Pass, and Plaquemines are all operating at or above typical utilization levels, according to our LNG Voyager Weekly Report.  Intake at the commissioning Golden Pass LNG is back around 300 MMCf/d after being near zero from May 9 to 21. Golden Pass said the shut-in was part of regular maintenance tasks related to commissioning. Shut-ins or drops in feedgas are a normal part of the commissioning process and do not necessarily signal any issues at the terminal. .

Lower 48 LNG Feedgas Flows Stabilize Near 18 Bcf/d After Holiday Weekend Recovery - A look at the global natural gas and LNG markets by the numbers.  Graphic: North American LNG Export Flow Tracker

• 18 Bcf/d: US feedgas nominations have rebounded sharply from last week’s lows as maintenance events wind down and demand returns. Scheduled flows rose to the upper-17 Bcf/d range over the holiday weekend and have stabilized since the beginning of the week, according to NGI’s US LNG Export Flow Tracker. Utilization at LNG terminals is expected to increase in the coming days with Wood Mackenzie projecting nominations to hover around 17.7-18.1 Bcf/d. Meanwhile, nominations to Freeport LNG have continued to lag after a compressor issue in the beginning of the month. Pipeline utilization was reported at 51% of capacity Wednesday, according to pipeline data.
• 350,000 MMBtu/d: Feedgas flows to Golden Pass LNG have strengthened again ahead of an expected third cargo loading next week. Over the weekend, nominations ticked up around 24% to above 350,000 MMBtu/d after sinking to bare minimum capacities for most of the month. The recovery marked the highest levels to the Texas facility since early May, when a second vessel loaded at the terminal. The Barzan, controlled by QatarEnergy, is currently passing through the Caribbean and is tracking to arrive at the Southeast Texas coast by June 1, according to Kpler data.
• 2 Mt: US LNG exports are set for a 0.32 Mt week/week dip the week of May 25, according to Kpler data. Estimated loadings from terminals in the United States are expected to reach just below 2 Mt, down from 2.31 Mt the week prior. The decline would put weekly exports about 0.72 Mt below the spring high of 2.71 Mt reached the week of April 20. Europe remains the top destination at roughly 0.82 Mt, followed by Asia at 0.58 Mt. There are around 0.38 Mt in volumes with unknown destinations, according to Kpler.
• 14 MMcf/d: An exploration and production firm has restarted natural gas flows at a mothballed field in the North Sea as the UK looks to secure more supply closer to home. Privately held Perenco UK disclosed wells in the Davy gas field in the Southern North Sea are now online after being partially decommissioned five years ago. Production was estimated at around 14 MMcf/d. The restart comes as the UK's government straddles continued policies of winding down offshore production licenses and rising prices amid global conflicts. UK’s National Balancing Point benchmark averaged about $16.08/MMBtu over the latest five trading days.

Mild US, European Weather Mutes Natural Gas Demand, but Late June Heat Offers Hope -Mild weather across the United States and Europe is keeping a lid on near-term natural gas demand, muting the impact of Asian cooling demand and leaving traders looking for late June heat. At a Glance:

• US cooling demand develops unevenly
• Softer feedgas tempers bullish momentum
• Traders await broader summer heat

Data Centers, LNG Each Take Aim at 16 Bcf/d Growth Into Next Decade - LNG exports are driving most of US natural gas demand upside in 2026, but data centers could start to rival LNG as a source of incremental growth by the start of the next decade. LNG exports are driving most of US natural gas demand upside in 2026, but data centers could start to rival LNG as a source of incremental growth by the start of the next decade.  NGI chart showing Texas Eastern M-3 forward natural gas basis curves through 2031 with recurring winter price spikes. At a Glance:

• 32 Bcf/d in new demand by 2031
• ArkLaTex leads regional growth
• Appalachia winter premiums strengthen

Cheniere Lines Up Bechtel for Sabine Pass Train 7 Ahead of 2027 FID -- Cheniere Energy has finalized a construction agreement with Bechtel and given a green light for limited work on its Sabine Pass expansion project as it aligns materials and partners for a final investment decision (FID) next year. At a Glance:

• Haynesville feedgas pull could strengthen
• Train 7 underpins phased buildout
• First LNG targeted around 2030

NGPL, Creole Trail Maintenance Seen Tightening Sabine Pass Natural Gas Supply -  NGI chart compares Henry Hub, Houston Ship Channel and NGPL TexOk prices against Creole Trail and NGPL feedgas deliveries to Sabine Pass LNG.

• Modest early summer demand is keeping a firm grip on natural gas prices across most of the Gulf Coast, even as pipeline maintenance is expected to tighten supply. Losses on Thursday were modest in South Texas, but NGPL Texok’s 8.5-cent drop to $2.475/MMBtu stood out as most locations in East Texas put up gains on the day. Houston Ship Channel barely budged a half-cent down to $2.535, while Henry Hub fell 7.5 cents to $3.075. The weakness entering the summer season comes as both Creole Trail Pipeline and Natural Gas Pipeline Co. of America (NGPL) kick off brief, but significant, maintenance events.
• First up is Creole Trail, which will start pigging operations on Sunday that will continue for several hours through Tuesday. This will limit available capacity to 700,000 MMBtu/d, representing a maximum estimated cut of around 880,000 MMBtu/d based on average flows over the past 30 days, according to Wood Mackenzie.
• NGPL is set to start work on Compressor Station (CS) 348 on Tuesday, reducing capacity to 450,000 MMBtu/d. NGPL, like Creole Trail, is one of Sabine Pass LNG’s sources of feedgas. NGPL deliveries to Sabine Pass have averaged around 763,000 MMBtu/d and peaked at around 892,000 MMBtu/d on May 7, per Wood Mackenzie. This means the maintenance could cut roughly 442,000 MMBtu/d of deliveries.
• Sabine Pass LNG has several options for receiving feedgas, including Kinder Morgan Louisiana Pipeline (KMLA) and Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line. Wood Mackenzie noted that available capacity from alternative feedgas sources currently stands at about 670,000 MMBtu/d. However, past maintenance events indicate that actual rerouting may fall well short of available capacity.
• Prices along the Gulf Coast are likely to remain soft heading into the weekend, but any cut in supply, combined with any unexpected changes to the currently moderate weather outlook, could provide some uplift. NatGasWeather said Texas could see highs reach the 90s even as national demand remains light. Still, the forecaster noted afternoon highs in the mid-80s to lower 90s over much of Texas “isn’t hot enough to impress.”

NextDecade Files for Another Rio Grande LNG Train, Granted First Phase Extension  --Federal regulators have granted NextDecade another three years to complete the first five liquefaction trains at its Rio Grande LNG terminal under construction on the Port of Brownsville in South Texas. At a Glance:

• Project now has until 2031
• FERC application filed for train 6
• Broader expansion not yet sanctioned

Let It Go, Let It Flow – Jones Act Waiver Opens Up New Routes for Foreign-Flagged Ships on U.S. Waters -The White House gave the green light on March 18 for foreign-flagged tankers to move crude oil and refined products between U.S. ports by waiving the Jones Act, and has since extended the waiver to August 17. In two months, 60 waivers have been recorded, and a compelling story is emerging around what those vessels are moving and where. So far, more than 3 MMbbl of gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and heavy crude have moved from other states into California, and there is also a distinct flow of Gulf Coast (PADD 3) barrels to other parts of the country. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll dig into the new patterns that have emerged.As a quick refresher, the Jones Act — formally Section 27 of the Merchant Marine Act of 1920 — requires that cargo moving between U.S. ports travel on vessels that are U.S.-built, U.S.-owned, U.S.-flagged and primarily U.S.-crewed (see Me and Mrs. Jones). The post-World War I law was designed to protect the domestic shipbuilding industry and to ensure a reliable U.S. merchant fleet for national defense and emergency response. Back in 2013-14, strong demand for Jones Act tankers and articulated tug barges (ATBs), along with a spike in charter rates, triggered a wave of new vessel orders. But by the time those ships hit the water, market conditions had shifted: U.S. crude production slumped mid‑decade and the 2015 repeal of the crude export ban reduced the need to move oil and refined products between domestic ports. Demand fell off, charter rates dropped sharply and newbuild orders dried up. Today, the Jones Act fleet stands at around 100 eligible vessels, a fraction of the roughly 400 ships in service back in 1950, and the total has been trending lower over the past decade. A major complication of the Jones Act is that it adds a layer of cost to moving crude and products between U.S. ports. U.S.-built ships are more expensive to build due to limited shipyard capacity and competition, and operators also face higher labor and insurance costs. Those factors have kept the Jones Act fleet relatively small and discouraged new vessel construction, which in turn has pushed up charter rates and shipping costs, a key consideration in whether coastwise transport makes economic sense.These cost dynamics directly shape how crude and products move around the country. While Jones Act vessels typically carry barrels between major hubs like Corpus Christi, Houston, New York Harbor and the West Coast (dashed dark-blue lines in Figure 1 below), or to inland destinations (dashed light-blue lines) and refining areas (green-shaded areas), higher costs can make indirect routes on foreign-flagged ships (dashed pink lines) more attractive. For example, it can be cheaper to move Gulf Coast crude through international routes such as Eastern Canada or even the Panama Canal than to ship it directly to the East Coast on a Jones Act vessel, despite the shorter distance. That cost structure has always limited how many domestic barrels move coastwise, and it’s a big reason why, when the Iran conflict pushed prices higher, the administration reached for a Jones Act waiver. The reasoning behind the waivers is pretty consistent. Operators point to a lack of available U.S.-flagged vessels, tight timing, complications tied to the Strait of Hormuz closure, and the need for flexibility. In short, they say the Jones Act fleet just wasn’t set up to handle a sudden reshuffling of domestic fuel flows during a geopolitical disruption.Let’s start with California, which is highly dependent on crude and refined product imports (see I Need More). With jet fuel prices already roughly double pre-war levels, PADD 5 faces the risk of additional price spikes if the conflict persists. This vulnerability reflects a structural shift. Refining capacity on the West Coast has declined faster than demand in recent years, pushing the region to rely more heavily on imported gasoline and jet fuel, primarily from Asia. Recent refinery closures have reinforced this trend. Phillips 66 shut its Los Angeles-area site, the Carson/Wilmington refinery, in November 2025, and Valero Energy idled its 150-Mb/d Benicia refinery in the Bay Area in February. Combined with earlier conversions to renewable fuels, California has lost roughly 575 Mb/d of conventional refining capacity since 2020, structurally increasing its import dependence.Given that backdrop, it’s no surprise that California shows up again and again in the waiver logs. So far, more than 3 MMbbl of products have been delivered from other parts of the country, with the majority from Texas Gulf Coast terminals such as Houston, Pasadena, Corpus Christi and Port Arthur. In addition, as shown in Figure 2 above, trip after trip runs north-to-south or south-to-north along the West Coast. More than 1.7 MMbbl have been shipped intrastate, and multiple voyages involve the same vessels, including trips such as Martinez (near San Francisco) to Long Beach/Los Angeles and the reverse route, Long Beach to Martinez, or San Francisco to Long Beach.A prime example is the Marshall Islands‑flagged Cabo Deseado, operated by Cape Management and Fleet Ship Management PTE, which loaded VGO at PBF’s Martinez refinery on March 2 and delivered it to Long Beach and Los Angeles on April 5, moving 296.9 Mbbl. A few days later, the vessel was back in Martinez loading low-sulfur gasoil, which it carried south to Long Beach/Los Angeles between April 12-15. Just days after that run, the Cabo Deseado reversed course again, taking on a cargo of heavy crude oil in Long Beach/Los Angeles on April 18 and hauling it north to Martinez by the end of April.  […] The Jones Act waiver has reshaped crude and product flows within the U.S. in just a matter of weeks. With those ships now able to serve U.S.-to-U.S. routes for at least the next few months, more U.S crude oil and refined products can move to premium East and West coast markets instead of being pushed onto the export slate. We expect that trend to continue, with many more waivers likely through August. But some key questions remain. Is the waiver enough to offer significant help to places like California and the East Coast? Will it be extended beyond mid-August? And will there be a new push to revoke the Jones Act outright? We’ll be watching to see how the market develops over the summer.

Delaware City Refinery oil spill hits Delaware River after Memorial Day --Delaware City Refining Co. spilled oil into the Delaware River just after the holiday weekend.  The refinery issued an oil spill notification on May 26 sharing “evidence of an oil spill and sheen in the vicinity of our pier on the Delaware River” was observed by refinery personnel at around 7:15 a.m. on Dock 3. It said the spill occurred following the completion of a transfer of oil to a marine vessel.The refinery’s oil response team “promptly established containment to prevent migration of the sheen and initiated oil recovery and cleanup efforts following established procedures,” the notification read.  The Delaware Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control tracks releases such as the oil spill through the Delaware Environmental Release Notification System.   The system recorded the oil spill time as 4 a.m. on May 26, then reported a few hours later at 8:02 a.m.    DNREC’s report said gasoline blending stocks – a hydrocarbon material that is not finished gasoline but can be blended with other components to become so – or specifically reformates, continuously leaked into the Delaware river due to a leak in the refinery’s supply pipeline from landside to the rack used for loading and unloading ships. Reformates can irritate the upper respiratory tract, central nervous system and organs if inhaled or ingested, per DNREC, leading to various complications. The report did not include the estimated quantity of oil spilled, though the leak was contained.The incident was not categorized as "extremely hazardous" by investigators. An extremely hazardous substance is no more or less dangerous than “hazardous” chemicals, but they are more volatile, according to DNREC.    No impacts were recorded from the release, but oil spills are known to harm water creatures, ruin water quality and make seafood unsafe to eat. Oil spills also require specific cleanup to save harmed wildlife and help the impacted body of water recover, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Heat of the Moment — Oil and Gas Prices Supercharge Q1 2026 E&P Results | RBN Energy -Oil and gas markets don’t stay quiet for long. Just as upstream producers settled into a lower-growth, shareholder-return-focused era, a geopolitical shock in the Middle East and one of the coldest Eastern winters in years sent commodity prices sharply higher during Q1 2026. WTI crude surged on fears surrounding the Iran conflict, while Appalachian natural gas prices briefly spiked into double digits as freezing temperatures tightened supply across key consuming markets. In today’s blog, we chronicle a massive rebound in profitability and cash flow from a dismal Q4 2025 for the 38 E&P companies we cover.Crude oil prices soared during Q1 2026, but only in the last month of the quarter, so higher realizations tell only part of the earnings story. At the same time, commodity markets strengthened while producers continued to grind down operating costs, cut impairment charges and maintain disciplined spending — allowing much of the price upside to flow directly to their bottom line. The quarter also reinforced how structurally different today’s upstream sector has become compared with prior commodity upcycles, with producers now far more focused on returns and balance-sheet durability than on rapid production growth. Importantly, most producers resisted the temptation to materially accelerate drilling activity, continuing the capital discipline that has defined the sector since 2021. The result was one of the strongest quarters for upstream profitability since the post-pandemic recovery, with Gas-Weighted E&Ps briefly taking center stage before what already appears to be another shift in momentum heading into Q2 2026.We made several changes to our peer-group composition during Q1 2026 to better reflect the evolving strategic profiles of the companies in our universe. ConocoPhillips was moved into the Oil-Weighted peer group, while EOG Resources was reclassified into the Diversified E&Ps because of its increasingly balanced commodity mix and broader operating footprint. In addition, Diversified Energy and SandRidge Energy were added to the list, expanding our coverage of mature asset and natural gas-focused operating strategies.The 38 E&P companies covered in this analysis saw profits surge in Q1 2026 as oil prices (gray line and right axis in Figure 1 below) climbed following the Iran conflict and Appalachian natural gas prices — a pivotal benchmark for our Gas-Weighted E&Ps — spiked during an unusually cold winter across the eastern half of the U.S. At the same time, the companies in our universe reduced overall costs by more than $1/boe. Pre-tax profits (blue bars and left axis) more than doubled from Q4 2025 to $13.67/boe in Q1 2026, the second-highest result since mid-2023. Realized prices increased 24% to $38.15/boe, while total costs fell 4% to $24.28/boe. Lifting costs rose 4% to $11.28/boe, driven solely by higher price-sensitive production taxes. Production costs were flat at $9.32/boe, while severance and ad valorem taxes rose 26% to $1.96/boe. Excluding production levies, total costs declined 6%. Depreciation, depletion and amortization (DD&A) expenses fell 4% to $10.45/boe, while impairment charges were reduced by 31% to $2.44/boe. Exploration expenses increased by 12% to $0.32/boe. Cash flow (orange bars and left axis) rose a healthy 35% to $26.87/boe, a two-year high. The Gas-Weighted E&Ps were the most profitable peer group in the quarter, posting pre-tax operating earnings of $16.47/boe, well ahead of the Oil-Weighted and Diversified peer groups at $12.33/boe and $12.23/boe, respectively. Oil and gas production fell 1% to 1.51 billion boe, as a 3.4% gain by the Diversified E&Ps partially offset declines by both the Oil-Weighted (-2.6%) and Gas-Weighted E&Ps (-2.6%). The Oil-Weighted E&Ps posted the largest increase in pre-tax profits (blue bars and left axis in Figure 2 below), going from $2.10/boe in Q4 2025 to $12.33/boe in Q1 2026, a fivefold increase, on the strength of higher oil prices (gray line and right axis). In addition, cash flow (orange bars and left axis) rose 28% to $29.72/boe. The gain in income resulted from a combination of a 19% increase in realized prices to $43.08/boe and a 10% ($3.33/boe) reduction in costs, including a $1.26/boe decline in impairment charges. Lifting costs were up 3% to $13.36/boe as production costs were down 1% to $10.61/boe, while production taxes were up 24% to $2.75/boe. DD&A expenses were reduced by 3% to $13.86/boe. In addition, impairment charges were cut in half to $3.11/boe. Impairment charges still amounted to $1.8 billion, the largest of which was a $1.4 billion ceiling test write-down from Diamondback Energy in addition to the $3.7 billion impairment charge it took in Q4 2025. Exploration charges increased 24% to $0.42/boe. The Diversified E&Ps saw profits (blue bars and left axis in Figure 3) increase 53% to $12.23/boe from $8.00/boe in Q4 2025 on the back of higher oil (gray bars and right axis) and gas prices. Cash flow (orange bars and left axis) was up 21% to $28.33/boe. Realized prices increased 15% to $39.71/boe. Lifting costs gained 1% to $11.38/boe as production taxes increased 23% to $2.24/boe and production costs declined 3% to $9.14/boe. DD&A expenses fell 5% to $11.28/boe. Impairment charges were $1.8 billion ($4.38/boe, up 42%), primarily because of Ovintiv’s $1.5 billion ceiling-test write-down on oil properties. The company write-offs consisted of $1.1 billion in the U.S. and $400 million in Canada. Exploration spending was down 1% to $0.44/boe. The Gas-Weighted E&Ps saw a surge in profits and cash flow during Q1 2026 due to the frigid winter weather that gripped the eastern half of the U.S. As you can see in Figure 4 below, we plotted the Gas-Weighted E&Ps profits (blue bars and left axis) and cash flow (orange bars and left axis) against the Transco Zone 6 natural hub (gray line and right axis), which serves the New York City market and acts as a key benchmark for Appalachian gas pricing. Earnings more than doubled to $16.47/boe, the highest among our three peer groups, powered by a surge in Appalachian natural gas prices to more than $12/MMbtu. The quarter demonstrated how rapidly regional gas market tightness can reshape profitability for Appalachia-focused producers. Realized prices were up nearly 50% to $30.98/boe ($5.16/Mcf). Lifting costs rose sharply, only partially because of higher production taxes. Lifting costs increased 7% to $8.71/boe as production costs rose 5% to $7.94/boe and production taxes were up 40% to $0.77/boe. DD&A expenses were reduced by 10% to $5.88/boe, while exploration costs increased 5% to $0.08/boe. Impairment charges were crushed during Q1 2026, down 93% to $0.02/boe.

Oil Spill in East LA Injures Birds - May 24 Authorities Sunday continued to monitor the effects of an oil spill that sent at least 2,400 gallons of crude oil onto an intersection in East Los Angeles, where a construction crew laying out a fiber optic line ruptured an underground pipeline and crews planned to work through the night to repair the broken pipeline. Firefighters were dispatched at 3:19 a.m. Friday to the area of East Cesar Chavez and North Eastern avenues, according to a Los Angeles County Fire Department public information officer, who added that the crude oil was projecting through the asphalt at the intersection. The “pipeline operator” was notified of the rupture and shut down the flow within 30 minutes of being notified, she said. The shut-off valve was near Dodger Stadium. The 16-inch line extends from Kern County to the Port of Long Beach, she said, adding it will “take days” to repair the line. It was unclear how long the clean up might take. “Petroleum product entered storm drains and was released into the Los Angeles River. Investigation into the cause and volume is ongoing,” California Department of Fish and Wildlife spokesman Eric Laughlin said. “OSPR (Office of Spill Prevention and Response) personnel on scene include wildlife officers, environmental scientists and oil spill prevention specialists.” “The Oiled Wildlife Care Network has been notified and is on standby for wildlife response,” Laughlin added. OWCN officials said Saturday that oiled birds have been collected from the area by trained OWCN responders from UC Davis, Aquarium of the Pacific and International Bird Rescue. . “The birds have been transported to the Los Angeles Oiled Bird Care & Education Center where additional OWCN responders are providing initial care prior to cleaning,” they said. Some of the oil that spilled into the L.A. River contaminated 25 birds, which were receiving treatment, the California Office of Spill Prevention and Response said Sunday. The state officials added that crews were making progress at strengthening measures to contain the oil during cleanup and recovery. Long Beach officials said Sunday that they were closely monitoring conditions in the LA River in coordination with the Unified Command and through their own on-site visual assessments. “At this time, we understand that no new oil is entering the river,” according to a city statement. “Current mitigation efforts are focused on addressing the oil that is already present. On Saturday, an oil sheen was observed near the PCH bridge. In response, additional oil-absorbing booms have been deployed at multiple points along the river, including Willow Street, PCH, Ocean Blvd and the approach to Golden Shore.

L.A. River Cleanup Continues After 2,400 Gallon Spill -Over 2,000 gallons of crude oil flowed into the L.A. River after a pipeline located by East Cesar E. Chavez Avenue and North Eastern Avenue ruptured. The incident, which occurred last Friday, resulted in clean-up endeavors that continued through the weekend and into Monday. The oil entered storm drains that emptied out into the river, leading concentrating clean-up efforts to the pipeline site as well as the riverbank. In Long Beach, oil-absorbing containment booms were installed to help prevent oil spill-off from reaching the ocean. Additionally, wildlife volunteers have been at work; approximately 25 oil-soaked birds along the L.A. River have been treated. Community members living near the site of the spill have reported strong fumes since the incident occurred on Friday. Officials state that they are closely tracking the situation, utilizing both community air monitoring systems as well as individualized personnel-operated air monitoring tools. Air purification efforts also remain in place. Kristina Werner spokesperson with the Office of Spill Prevention and Response (OSPR) said: “We know that this community is impacted, and we know that roads are shut down. We know that it’s an impact, so we just ask for everyone’s patience and just keep in mind, we will do this as quickly and as properly as we can,” Thus far, officials say they have been able to keep oil contamination away from the river south of the Pacific Coast Highway. However, clean-up efforts will continue into the foreseeable future. The broken pipeline has been shut down, and crews remain in place, excavating and repairing the channel.

US Shipping More LNG to Asia, Setting Stage for Supply Battle with Europe Later in Year – (Graphic: US Gulf Coast Netback Prices) More US LNG is headed to Asia on early signs of summer demand that are pushing up prices as buyers in the region grapple with supply outages in the Middle East. At a Glance:
Diversions increasing
Heat stoking Asian demand
Europe faces storage deficit

Mexico’s Gato Negro LNG Gains Permit as Waha Natural Gas Glut Persists -The Gato Negro Manzanillo LNG export facility planned for Colima, Mexico, has secured an environmental permit from the Agencia de Seguridad, Energía y Ambiente (ASEA), a “significant regulatory milestone,” developers of the project said.NGI chart showing Waha daily natural gas prices from May 2025 to May 2026 with volatile swings, negative pricing, winter spike. At a Glance:
Gato Negro targets 2030 startup
Phase 1 offers 3 Mt/y
Waha prices remain negative

NOG to acquire 25% Duvernay light oil stake for $253m - Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) has agreed to acquire a 25% undivided stake in light oil properties in the Duvernay East Shale Basin, Alberta, Canada. The transaction, currently valued at C$350m ($253.4m) before customary closing adjustments, marks the company’s entry into the Canadian market. The assets are currently operated by Parallax Energy Operating, a portfolio company of investment funds overseen by Carnelian Energy Capital Management. Under the agreement, NOG will purchase its interest through a combination of cash and stock. Parallax will receive approximately C$113m in NOG common stock at closing. The remainder of the payment will be funded through cash on hand, operating free cash flow, and borrowings from NOG’s revolving credit facility. In connection with this acquisition, NOG is forming a new Canadian subsidiary, NOG Energy Canada. The portfolio to be acquired comprises approximately 75,000 net acres and around 500 gross drilling locations. NOG estimates the assets hold roughly 20 years of inventory, with average breakeven costs below $50 WTI and a projected capital cost of about $0.6m per net location. Production from the acquired stake is expected to reach around 4,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) by 2027, with roughly 80% categorised as light oil.

Canadian Rig Counts: Active Oil Rig Count Now 23% Above Prior Five-Year Seasonal High -Western Canada’s active oil-directed rig count jumped by 11 rigs for the week ending May 22, to 85 rigs, eclipsing 69 rigs that were active at this time last year, which was the prior five-year high for this time of year, according to Baker Hughes data. The Western Canada natural gas-directed active rig count was unchanged for the week at 48 active rigs, five more than at this time last year. In terms of oil-directed rig counts in Western Canada last week, Saskatchewan added eight rigs, primarily in Southeast Saskatchewan where the active rig count went from three to ten last week, as spring break-up season looks to be ending earlier than last year. In Alberta, the Foothills Front, East Central Alberta, and Northeast Alberta regions all added one rig last week. Strong oil prices and an early end to spring break-up in Southeast Saskatchewan are contributing to a stronger oil-directed rig count for this time of year than has been seen in the past 10 years.The natural gas-directed rig count in Western Canada fell by one in the Alberta Foothills Front region, to 26 active rigs, while Saskatchewan went from zero to one rig actively targeting gas.

Canada Eyes European LNG Foothold With Ksi Lisims Supply Deal to Germany (Graphic: Other North American LNG Netback Prices) Canada’s LNG ambitions are expanding across the Atlantic, as Germany secures supply from a proposed export project that could establish Canada’s link to Europe’s natural gas market.  At a Glance:

• Germany further diversifies LNG portfolio
  BC feedgas targets overseas markets
  AECO discount strengthens LNG economics

"Removed Without Warning": Ex-BP Chairman Blasts Abrupt Ouster As Wall Street Gets Spooked - The abrupt Tuesday morning firing of BP Chairman Albert Manifold by the board certainly raised eyebrows, given his key role in the company's turnaround effort: unwinding years of underperforming green-energy bets and steering the oil major back toward its oil-and-gas business. The board cited "serious concerns" tied to "important governance standards, oversight, and conduct" as the core reason for Manifold's removal. But the explanation remains vague, leaving Wall Street desks wondering exactly what prompted such a sudden and aggressive move against the chairman.Bloomberg reporters reached out to Manifold for his perspective on the firing. He said, "I was removed without warning and without explanation." "I dispute entirely the characterization of my conduct and I will not allow a false narrative to go unchallenged," Manifold continued. The outlet spoke with people close to BP, who requested anonymity, and said the firing was tied to Manifold's "aggressive behavior" toward employees and mishandling of sensitive information. They also noted that he was seeking to bypass the board. Manifold told the reporters, "During my time as chairman, I worked to drive genuine change at BP — cutting costs, challenging excess, and holding the organization to higher standards," adding, "The board's statement this morning acknowledged the focus and pace I brought." The dismissal adds to BP's leadership instability, following years of underperformance and multiple CEO changes. Also, BP shares in London are nearing the lows set by yesterday's announcement. Manifold had been a driving force behind an aggressive turnaround, bringing in CEO Meg O'Neill, Big Oil's first female chief executive, while pushing cost cuts, asset sales, and a renewed focus on oil and gas. C That strategy had been warmly received by Wall Street analysts after years of frustration with BP's costly move into unprofitable and unreliable green-energy deals. "We had welcomed what looked to be a turnaround under Mr. Manifold, but we think serious questions do need to be asked about the wider board's decision-making process," Barclays analyst Lydia Rainforth said in a note. TD Cowen analyst Jason Gabelman noted, "We had believed Manifold could be a driving force behind any updates, including an acceleration of investing in core oil and gas assets and further simplifying the business. Continued leadership change could bring into question pace of change at a minimum." His removal now raises new questions over whether the company can maintain the turnaround plan.

Iraq's Oil Collapse Sparks Race For New Export Routes -- April was indeed the cruellest month for decades for Iraq's crude oil production, with an average of 1.389 million barrels per day (bpd) over the period. This compares to a monthly average of 3.47 million bpd from January 2002 to the end of March this year, and an average of over 4.1 million bpd in the three months leading up to the onset of the U.S./Israel-Iran War on 28 February. The last time oil production fell to the current level in the country was in the early 2000s, during and immediately following the 2003 U.S.-led invasion. Even for a diversified economy, this would spell bad news, but for Iraq, it is existential, with over 90% of its annual budget historically coming from oil and around 95% of that black gold having to pass through the still-blockaded Strait of Hormuz before it is monetised. The effective closure of that key export route meant that Iraq's domestic oil storage tanks quickly filled to maximum capacity, and because it has extremely limited options to transport its crude elsewhere, it has been forced to shut down production wells entirely. As disastrous as it is now, even worse may be to come soon, as these shutdowns can cause permanent damage to wells through a loss of reservoir pressure, water infiltration, and corrosion, among other factors. In Iraq's case, many of its biggest mature southern fields are highly susceptible to these problems. This is why the race has been on in Baghdad to secure other export options, most notably now, pipeline options in the north, but these bring their own sets of problems with them.Historically, moving oil from the southern part of Iraq administered by the Federal Government of Iraq (FGI) in Baghdad was a largely redundant exercise, with little demand for it from Europe that was not already being filled by oil coming from the country's semi-autonomous northern region, presided over by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). Instead, the onus of the FGI's export drive was to the East, especially to China - a route involving the Strait of Hormuz. This was also a pivotal means by which sanctioned Iranian crude oil could be surreptitiously transported to the same destination, rebranded as non-sanctioned Iraqi oil, with all elements involved in this mechanism analysed in full in my latest book on the new global oil market order. Aside from the ongoing conflicts with Washington that this continued practice brought with it for Baghdad, it also meant that the Federal Government could focus on measures aimed at stopping the KRG's oil exports to Europe via a pipeline running into the Turkish port of Ceyhan, thus pressuring its ability to generate financing independent of Baghdad. This was central to Baghdad's long-term objective to destroy the economic infrastructure of the Kurdistan region before rolling it into the remainder of a unified Iraq as just a regular administrative region. The idea was in line with the geopolitical ambitions of Baghdad's superpower sponsors, China and Russia, as also detailed thoroughly in my latest book. These objectives were outlined some time ago by a very senior member of the Russian administration to a senior source who works closely with Iran's Petroleum Ministry, and then exclusively relayed to OilPrice.com: "By keeping the West out of energy deals in Iraq, the end of Western hegemony in the Middle East will become the decisive chapter in the West's final demise." On the other hand, the U.S. and its allies wanted to bolster the independence of the Kurdistan region to act as leverage to extend their influence in the rest of Iraq to the south. Their objective was to have the Kurdistan region expel all Chinese, Russian, and Iranian companies from the region, and then to gradually push for the same to happen in the rest of Iraq.The key lever Baghdad used to effect this plan to subsume the northern Kurdistan region was a deal struck in 2014, in which the FGI pledged to send the KRG money each month from Iraq's central government budget (17% at the time the deal was made) in exchange for the KRG pledging to send oil produced in its region (around 550,000 bpd at the time of the initial deal) to the FGI. The deal has never worked properly, with either Baghdad accusing Erbil of underdelivering oil (and selling it separately outside the terms of the agreement) or Erbil accusing Baghdad of underpaying from the budget - or both simultaneously. This, though, has caused a big problem for Baghdad since the outbreak of U.S./Israel-Iran War, in that the KRG had the only workable pipeline solution that would enable Baghdad to move its oil anywhere for monetisation through exports. Moreover, the supply/demand dynamics shifted so that European refiners grew desperate to secure any replacement barrels to compensate for those that had come through the Strait. To capitalise on this - but with no fully working pipeline itself, and disagreements with the KRG still simmering away - Baghdad has resorted in recent weeks to transporting oil to Turkey as and when it can through trucks overland.Something is better than nothing, of course, but these volumes pale into insignificance when compared to those that could be achieved through a working pipeline, and it is this that Baghdad is aiming to get up and running as soon as possible. Not that long ago, the FGI had an oil pipeline that ran from the disputed, federally-controlled Kirkuk province adjacent to Iraq's Kurdistan region to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. It ran northwest from the Kirkuk K1 field through federal territory (the Salahaddin and Nineveh provinces, near Mosul) up to the border town of Fishkhabur. This "original" Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline or Iraq-Turkey Pipeline (ITP) consisted of two pipes, which theoretically had a nameplate capacity of 1.6 million bpd combined and was split into 1.1 million bpd for the 46-inch (1,168-mm) diameter pipe and 500,000 bpd for the 40-inch (1,016-mm) line. This FGI-controlled pipeline's export capacity reached between 250,000 and 400,000 bpd when running normally, but even before the Islamic State entered the picture in 2014, the pipeline was subject to repeated and ongoing attacks by various Sunni militant groups operating in the region. Given its unreliability as an export option, the KRG constructed its own single side-track pipeline, from the Taq Taq field through Khurmala, which joins the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline in the border town of Fishkhabur. This had a nameplate capacity of 700,000 bpd, which was then increased to 1 million bpd, although it has so far reached only 900,000 bpd.With or without a peace deal between Iran and the U.S./Israel alliance, Baghdad is now pushing ahead with the Kirkuk-Nineveh pipeline as part of the Iraq-Turkey crude oil pipeline extending to Ceyhan Port on the Mediterranean Sea, which is independent of the KRG. The Kirkuk-to-Nineveh line is not a standalone project, but rather is the vital northern leg of the rehabilitated federal network, proving the physical pipe required to carry oil around the KRG's territory and deliver it directly to the Fishkhabur border terminal. The 350,000-bpd design capacity of this Kirkuk-to-Nineveh segment reflects the Oil Ministry's cautious, phased approach, as they cannot safely test the entire 1.6 million bpd nameplate capacity of the old system at once. Opening this 350,000-bpd pipeline allows Baghdad to easily handle the initial trial target of 150,000 to 250,000 bpd of Kirkuk crude next month. Moreover, once the southern Basra-to-Haditha corridor is built, it will plug into this newly opened Kirkuk-Nineveh-Fishkhabur line, creating a seamless, high-volume flow from the Persian Gulf to Turkey - at least, that is the idea.However, just when the West thought that Iraq might be moving back into its own sphere of influence and away from China's, Beijing's hand has appeared again in this grand pipeline project. To obviate any future problems that might come in transporting oil from its massive southern fields out into the world, Baghdad is working to connect these directly to the northern network, and to achieve this, it has agreed to partner heavily with Chinese engineering firms. This will be part of the US$1.5 billion emergency infrastructure budget approved by former Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al-Sudani that ties into the 2019 "Oil-for-Projects" agreement between Baghdad and Beijing, fully analysed in my latest book on the new global oil market order. Suffice it to say here that under this framework, Iraq sets aside 150,000 barrels of oil per day in an escrow account to serve as collateral for such work undertaken by Chinese entities. Indeed, Baghdad bypassed traditional open public bidding to directly invite specialised Chinese state companies to fast-track construction of the US$5 billion Basra-to-Haditha pipeline - the 700-kilometre mega-corridor designed to pump 2.5 million bpd from the south up toward the northern networks.

Stranded  - Markets laid in wait for war-related headlines yesterday after Trump truthed on Monday night that “negotiations with the Islamic Republic of Iran” were “proceeding nicely.” It’s also possible that “proceeding nicely” meant that the US was once again escalating to de-escalate, as hours later the US military confirmed reports of strikes against Iranian military assets, including speedboats which were laying mines in the Strait. While the news reel was sparsely populated, it did flag that the US Navy was restarting to guide ships through the Strait with a plan to help a dozen vessels through the passage in the coming days. However, minutes later a “US official” denied these claims, leaving traders, and vessels in the Strait, stranded. Brent crude oil climbed around $3.50 from open to $99.50/bbl.  A look at the current landscape suggests to us that a peace deal is far beyond the horizon. Rabobank’s global strategist, Michael Every, released a report, The Hormuz Odyssey: a new base case, which updates our base case to see complications in the Strait for around another three months. The possible outcomes of the war in Iran are immeasurable, but even in the pipe dream scenario where the war ends tomorrow, logistics are king. If a deal were to be magically achieved tomorrow, there are still somewhere around 1,500 ships still trapped in the Strait of Hormuz.The Strait is incredibly narrow and it will take time for these ships to safely pass through. Energy strategists Joe DeLaura and Florence Schmit elaborate on the implications for energy prices in their recent report, Longer Stalemate, Higher Prices. Needless to say, they project oil staying higher for longer, forecasting Brent averaging around $120/bbl in Q3 of this year, which would imply a return to levels still not seen since 2022To further complicate the outlook, the proxy war in the Middle East between Israel and Hezbollah has also re-escalated, with the IDF reporting that it hit over 100 Hezbollah sites in Southern Lebanon, including “storage facilities, command centers, and observation points.” This, of course, likely puts another obstacle in the way of Trump’s insistence that GCC members join the Abraham Accords and normalize relations with Israel as part of a broader peace deal. While many of the GCC states are no friend to Hezbollah, the implications of normalizing relations with Israel during elevated hostilities in the Levant are a political nightmare.US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, hinted that in his view, negotiations to end the war may “take a few days,” which is certainly more optimistic than our view of a few months. Nuclear programs will continue to stand as a major barrier towards any sense of an agreement between the US and Iran. Total regime change in might not be in the cards, but achieving a firm commitment from Iran that it promises to table its plans for nuclear development is the only way the US can exit the war and keep some of its street cred.But while nuclear proliferation is a major issue abroad, it may be presenting opportunities at home. The New York Times reports that the US government may allow private companies to use “Cold-War era plutonium from dismantled nuclear warheads” as fuel for nuclear power plants.US Treasury yields traded mostly flat from the open, across the yield curve, with a slight bull-steepening bias, and the DXY index was little changed at 99.19. The US 5-year, 30-year spread widened again, back to 84bp, bouncing off of 1-year lows of 81bp on Friday. The US OIS curve remains positioned firmly in favor of hikes, pricing in around 70% of a hike by year-end, and a full hike by March of next year.But the US consumer outlook remains grim. US Conference Board consumer confidence picked up a touch from 92.8 to 93.1, but remains firmly planted in negative territory. The components of the headline index—present situation and job outlook—have been trending consistently lower since 2021, while consumer expectations also remain in negative territory. While we should note that consumer confidence has been a poor indicator of economic performance for quite some time now, a poor consumer outlook coupled with a dire inflationary outlook could spell trouble for those at the lower end of the income spectrum. We will see headline and core PCE price data for April on Thursday, expected to register 3.8% y/y and 3.3% y/y, respectively.

Why Oil Markets Could Face A Generational Shock This Summer If US-Iran Talks Fail -- President Trump is signaling "make a good deal" or walk away with no deal at all.Overnight hostilities around the Hormuz maritime chokepoint highlight just how fragile the ceasefire remains as Washington and Tehran try to solidify a peace deal to end the conflict.The timing of a peace deal is very important because, as we have warned readers, a no-deal scenario would collide with a deteriorating oil-supply backdrop by summer, when global buffers and floating storage begin to run down, and SPR releases become less effective in offsetting lost supply from the Gulf region.Building on UBS analyst Arend Kapteyn's note from Friday titled "When The Oil Buffers Run Out," Brookings' Robin Brooks and Ben Harris outline in a note that oil markets could face a massive price shock by mid-July as temporary supply buffers run dry.There appears to be consensus building among Wall Street analysts at Goldman, JPMorgan, UBS, and many other desks that if the Hormuz chokepoint is not reopened in the near term, an energy cliff may materialize in early summer. The Brookings analysts say crude prices have so far been depressed by three factors: trade rerouting, inventory drawdowns, and market expectations that the U.S.-Iran war would end quickly."The bottom line is that the supply shortfall will build in the coming months as temporary buffers are depleted. And if markets grow increasingly pessimistic over an eventual resolution to the impasse in the strait, oil prices may rise materially higher," the Brookings analysts said.However, they warned that the three factors capping crude prices are fading. Russian floating stocks are likely depleted by the end of April; Iranian floating stocks are expected to be gone by the end of May; and the IEA emergency oil release is projected to be exhausted by July 9.They continued, "It is fair to say that the scale of the supply shortfall is now well-known to markets. But the timeline on which temporary buffers run out and how this interacts with prices is of critical importance.""This interaction means non-linear outcomes in prices—in other words, sharp price spikes—are possible the longer this conflict is expected to take. The potential for non-linear outcomes grows the longer oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely encumbered," the analysts ended the note.Shifting back to UBS analyst Kapteyn's note last week on oil buffers, he warned, "Oil prices can move much higher once inventories are depleted." He continued: This week saw the largest-ever drawdown in US oil inventories since records began in 1982: commercial inventories and the SPR combined fell by 17.8mb. These stock draws help explain why—despite nearly three months of supply shortfalls from the Middle East—oil is still trading "only" around $105/bbl.Oil prices and volumes are linked by the price elasticity of demand. A simple relationship allows us to approximate price outcomes under different supply disruptions and degrees of demand destruction:The oil team estimates that the net supply loss via the Strait of Hormuz is around 9mb/d after SPR releases, equivalent to a ~9% disruption.At $105/bbl, this implies demand elasticity of roughly –0.2: a 1% increase in prices reduces demand by 0.2% (see chart). Without SPR releases, the supply shock would be closer to 12%, implying a price nearer $123/bbl.There are two ways in which oil prices could increase much more:

• First, if inventories are depleted they can no longer buffer the supply shortfall.
• Second, as the "easy" adjustments in consumption and production are exhausted, demand becomes less responsive to higher prices.

The chart highlights some scary combinations. For instance, if the global supply shortfall were 14% then even with the current demand elasticity, oil should be trading closer to $140/bbl. If the demand elasticity was 0.15 rather than 0.2, the implied oil price would be $208/bbl, and if the demand elasticity was 0.1 prices would approach $372/bbl.   What we are outlining here is a growing consensus across Wall Street: a no-deal outcome between Washington and Tehran would represent a severe risk for energy markets, with the critical point of no return by early summer. That is when the temporary buffers suppressing crude prices, including emergency stockpile releases, floating storage, rerouted flows, and hopes for a diplomatic off-ramp, begin to lose effectiveness. Once those offsets are exhausted, the market would likely be forced to slap a new war risk premium more aggressively, removing the current ceiling on Brent and WTI.JPMorgan analysts recently warned about this ...

Oil market at 'tank bottoms' in Asia, Europe isn't far behind: Jeff Currie -- Oil markets are nearing minimum operating levels in Asia, with Europe likely next and the U.S. potentially facing shortages by July, said veteran market strategist Jeff Currie on Monday, underscoring the global energy shock due to the Iran war. Headline global inventory figures can be misleading as much of the oil stored worldwide cannot be used immediately, said Currie, Carlyle’s chief strategy officer of energy pathways and co-chairman of Abaxx Markets. A large portion of that oil is needed to keep pipelines and storage systems running safely, leaving only a smaller share available for the market. Asia is already close to these so-called “minimum operating levels,” Currie told CNBC on the sidelines of the UBS Wealth Conference in Singapore. Global oil markets have been under strain since the outbreak of the Iran war earlier this year, after disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz sharply curtailed energy exports from the Middle East. “We’ve seen explosive prices on products. Jet fuel has come down, but diesel has now gone up above jet fuel. So, the problem here in Singapore continues. It just moved from jet to diesel,” said Currie. Europe could begin seeing similar strains within weeks, as the current relief from U.S. oil flows may prove temporary, and as the summer driving season starts. “I would say, Asia, you’re there. Europe, give it about another month, and look for July being a problem in the U.S.,” Currie said. “All of the inventories that are drawing out of the United States out of the U.S. SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] are being exported into Europe, so the Europeans think they have no problem because they’re getting all of this oil being imported from the United States, but that can’t continue on.” His comments come on the back of recent warnings by the International Energy Agency that the global oil market could face a critical supply squeeze during the peak summer consumption period, especially if Middle Eastern exports fail to recover and inventories continue falling. “We may be entering the red zone in July or August if we don’t see that there are some improvements in the situation,” IEA chief Fatih Birol cautioned last week. Currie, a former global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, dismissed proposals such as suspending the U.S. federal gasoline tax as insufficient to address the underlying supply crunch. “That doesn’t solve any of the problems. The only way you solve this problem is to increase the availability of molecules,” he said, referring to physical oil supply. While releases from the U.S. SPR have provided some relief, Currie said market pricing suggests underlying shortages remain acute. Ultimately, reopening the Strait of Hormuz remains the only lasting solution, though even that would take time to normalize markets, Currie said, arguing that shrinking global inventories are also strengthening Iran’s leverage in ongoing negotiations. U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday asked his team to not agree a deal with Iran in a hurry to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. “Every day that goes by, Iran’s negotiating leverage compounds. Why? Because inventories of oil and inventories continue to drop,” he said. “The minute you think you won, that’s exactly when you know you probably lost, and their negotiating position at this point has never been stronger in the last 47 years.”

"Approaching Unheard Of Inventory Levels": Exxon, Chevron Issue Apocalyptic Warning About What Happens Next To Oil -- Just about two months ago, JPMorgan did the math on "How Long Before The World Hits Crude Oil Operational Minimum." The punchline was that while the market can hold hundreds of millions of barrels, it would still become fragile once working stocks fell too low. Like blood pressure in the human body, the issue is circulation.  Then, approximately 4 weeks later, the bank followed up this analysis with some more math, explaining "Why Hormuz Will Reopen By September... One Way Or Another." The bank calculated that of the 8.4 billion barrels in global oil inventories at the start of 2026, only 0.8 billion barrels were realistically available without pushing the system into operational stress. Long story short (and the long story can be found here), OECD commercial stocks could fall to operational stress levels by June, and then hit the global operational floor by September if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, assuming demand destruction stabilized at 5.5 mbd (with oil prices paradoxically dropping since the last JPM article, demand destruction has actually slowed).  Meanwhile, the biggest paradox during this period when the blocked Hormuz Strait meant that roughly 10 million barrels of oil wasn't reaching its intended destination each day, was that instead of prices going sharply higher to destroy demand, oil prices were actually dropping after peaking in late March and then again a month later, in effect incentivizing more demand. This prompted JPMorgan to published that "Something Is Off" With The Global Oil Math...... and Goldman to follow up a few weeks later by observing that in May, global oil inventories plunged by a record 8.7 million barrels per day, with Hormuz still largely blocked. And yet, oil prices are sharply lower in May, in no small part due to the daily market jawboning manipulation by various official and unofficial sources, who signal that an Iran deal is imminent... any minute now. Only it isn't, and while the market may prefer to shove its head in the sand, the biggest names in the room are no longer keeping quiet.Today, Chevron CEO Mike Wirth warned oil prices are likely to rise over the next two months as already near record low crude inventories continue to decline due to the Iran war. “The buffers and the shock absorbers are being steadily drawn down, and the ability for the market to absorb this imbalance is drastically diminished today versus where we started,” he said at a Bernstein conference on Thursday.“Over the next few weeks, we’re likely to see those pressures flow through more directly to physical prices and there’s more upwards pressure that I would expect as we get into June and certainly into July.” Wirth’s comments follow a 10% fall in oil prices over the past week amid optimism that the US and Iran can agree a deal to end the three-month-long conflict that has closed the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which a fifth of crude flows. They highlight growing concern among economists that the war’s impact on energy prices will continue to be felt for many months after any deal is agreed to end it... not that that moment is even remotely close. The conflict has removed 12mn-13mn barrels of oil a day from global markets. The comments by Wirth echo a growing chorus of warnings from other oil executives, including the head of the United Arab Emirates state oil group Adnoc, who cautioned last week that full oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz were unlikely to return before next year even if the conflict is resolved. “It will take at least four months to get back to 80% of pre-conflict flows, and full flows will not return before the first or even second quarter of 2027,” Adnoc chief executive Sultan al-Jaber said during an Atlantic Council event on May 21. Echoing JPMorgan's observations, Wirth said oil prices had not risen as much as people had expected due to higher-than-normal stocks of crude prior to the outbreak of the war, releases from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve and flows of sanctioned oil from Iran, Russia and Venezuela. But he said these stocks were now running low. One wildcard is the rapid, yet very stealthy, drain of Chinese stocks, both commercial and strategic. With 1.4 billion in China's SPR, the moment of reckoning could be delayed yet again if Beijing decides to open the floodgates.  Wirth also said the energy crisis would force governments to focus more on “an insurance policy” by building up oil reserves to insulate them from shocks such as the pandemic and wars in Iran and between Russia and Ukraine. “The likelihood that another shock is around the corner is something policymakers are going to have to bear in mind . . . how long they want to roll the dice before they refill inventories is a question that I think we’re going to see policymakers have to grapple with.”“That’s going to put more demand into the market, which is going to put a bit of additional tension on the price,” he said.The Chevron boss concluded by warning that damage to oil and gas infrastructure in the Middle East would cost tens of billions of dollars to repair, putting additional upwards pressure on prices. “If this goes on for long, it tips us into an economic slowdown or a recession, you might have an offset on the demand side, which you can’t rule out.”But if Chevron was pessimistic, the company's biggest domestic competitor, Exxon, was downright apocalyptic. Speaking at the same Bernstein conference, Exxon SVP Neil Chapman had some truly horrifying remarks, certainly not something that Donald Trump would like to hear. We present them below. Commercial inventories of crude oil, of liquids, think petroleum, gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, they've all run down. And running down those inventories has mitigated or offset, supplemented by the release of strategic petroleum reserves, which most of the Western countries have done. All of that has mitigated the impact. You can model this. We've modeled it. I think a lot of people in the industry have modeled it. Nothing new here: we've discussed all this in the previous three months. But it is what he said next that was a moment of shocking insight into just how bad things are about to get: We're approaching unheard of inventory levels. I mean, really, really low levels. You can debate whether that's going to hit those really low levels in two weeks or three weeks. Once you get to that point, then you'll see price shoot up. A model would say dated Brent will shoot up. Once you get to that really low inventory level, up to $150, $160.The models would tell you that. And then what happens is when the price gets to a certain level, demand destruction brings it back into balance. Prices go so high, it becomes unaffordable. And that's what happens. And so we're at that level right now. Next, Chapman connected all the abovementioned dots: "I think crude being in this sort of $90 to $110 for the last whatever it is, six weeks, has really been mitigated by running down inventories. It can't last forever. So we'll see what happens.... predicting this and the exact timing, it's always a challenge. But that's the way we see the picture."Putting all of the above in simple terms: by playing a jawboning game of cat and mouse with oil markets, the Trump administration is only draining stocks, both commercial and strategic, faster as consumers can afford to buy more, and they do. However, the supply sid of the pipeline remains blocked.And until the war in Iran truly ends, and the Strait returns to normal transit, global inventories will continue to drain by about 10-14 million per day. Which is why when the operational floor is reached in less than three months, the resulting parabolic move in oil will be just as memorable as when it plunged deep into negative territory in April 2020 when traders were paying others any amount asked, to take physical oil off their hands. It will be just like that... only in reverse.

Fed's Logan: world may need to cut use of oil and natural gas (Reuters) - The world may need to find a way to get by on less oil and gas if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed much longer due to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie ​Logan said on Wednesday. Iran has throttled shipping through the strait during the three-month ‌conflict, forcing up energy, food and fertilizer prices. Around a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas transited the narrow waterway before the war. "With supplies highly constrained, if shipping through the strait does not soon return ​to prewar levels, world oil and natural gas consumption could need to fall more meaningfully ​than it has so far," Logan said in remarks prepared for delivery to ⁠a Bank of Japan conference. "The economic consequences would depend on the degree to which end ​users can switch to other energy sources or use energy more efficiently, versus curtailing economic activity." U.S. oil ​executives in a recent Dallas Fed survey said they expect U.S. oil output to rise this year by only a quarter of a million barrels a day, and by only half a million barrels per day next year. That compares ​with a reduction in the global oil supply of about 13 million barrels a day since ​the start of the Iran war -- a shortfall now being largely made up by drawing down inventories that are, ‌Logan ⁠noted, finite. "One way or another, I expect energy markets to come into rough balance before too long," Logan said. "If the molecules aren’t available, the world can’t consume them." Logan was one of three Fed policymakers who voted against last month's interest-rate decision because they felt the U.S. central bank should signal that ​given rising energy and ​other prices a rate ⁠hike is just as possible as a rate cut. In her prepared remarks for the closed-press conference on Wednesday, she did not offer any near-term economic ​forecasts or comment on monetary policy. She did use the speech to call ​for boosting ⁠the resilience of the Treasury market by centrally clearing the Fed's own Treasury securities trading and enhancing the Fed's liquidity toolkit beyond its standing repo operation, noting that leveraged investors have acquired a growing share ⁠of Treasuries. "Levered ​positions can unwind rapidly in the event of price ​or funding shocks," she said. "The Treasury market underpins government finance, the flow of investment, and the implementation and transmission of monetary ​policy. Its resilience deserves, and requires, ongoing effort and vigilance."

Kansas Fed Pres Warns Oil Price Shock Might Not Be Transitory -Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid has warned that the current global energy shock cannot simply be dismissed as transitory, given already-elevated baseline inflation. Speaking at a conference in Iceland, Schmid pointed out that inflation has stalled near 3% and remained above the Fed's 2% target for a long time, making it challenging for the central bank to "look through’’ surging oil prices. Schmid has argued that current monetary policy may not be restrictive enough, reinforcing his hawkish stance on monetary policy. Schmid has suggested that the Fed may need to consider utilizing its balance sheet as an additional tool to cool down the economy.“We're not very restrictive at this stage and I think there's some dialogue that we need to start considering what tools we have to really make it a little bit more restrictive depending on how the oil shock plays out in an environment of already high inflation," the official said. ‘‘Maybe we look at the balance sheet again as another tool to...create some restriction," he added, suggesting some sort of new drawdown in Fed holdings.Despite high prices driven by geopolitical conflict, Schmid noted that U.S. energy firms are practicing extreme capital discipline and are reluctant to increase oil production due to price uncertainty.  However, Schmid has affirmed that whereas high energy prices are draining consumer purchasing power, the overall economy remains resilient, with steady growth and a balanced labor market. Schmid’s warning comes hot on the heels of another hawkish stance by yet another Fed official. Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan recently warned that the world needs to cut its oil and gas consumption to keep energy prices down. Logan was one of three Fed policymakers who strongly objected to post-meeting statement language that hinted the Fed's next move would be an interest rate cut following the April 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Logan argued that forward guidance should accurately reflect the policy outlook, and that because inflation risks were elevated, an interest rate hike was just as likely as an interest rate cut.

Oil Prices Fall 6% as U.S.-Iran Peace Talks Gain Ground --Oil prices were sharply lower on Monday following comments by President Donald Trump that diplomatic negotiations with Iran are advancing, easing market fears of severe energy supply disruptions due to the Middle East conflict. Brent crude for July delivery fell 5.9% to trade at $97.44 per barrel at 7.45 am ET in Monday’s early morning session, slipping below the $100-per-barrel mark for the first time in nearly three weeks while the corresponding WTI contract fell by a similar margin to trade at $90.99/bbl. Easing inflation and supply concerns prompted a global stock market rally, with Japan’s Nikkei reaching a record high and U.S. futures posting solid gains.Markets reacted to tentative progress in U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks. Tracking data shows de-escalation movements, such as Chinese tankers shifting out of the high-tension zone, while earlier IEA strategic petroleum reserves are being tapped at a record clip to cushion the market.However, both Washington and Tehran have downplayed expectations for an immediate peace agreement to end their three-month-old war, backing away from claims of an imminent breakthrough. Trump recently revealed that he has instructed negotiators not to rush the process, asserting that the U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports will remain in full effect until a finalized accord is certified and signed. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has affirmed that Washington will exhaust diplomatic channels; however, he has warned that the U.S. will handle Iran in “another way” if a good agreement cannot be secured, hinting at a potential return to active war.Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei has clarified that while a 14-point framework has been reached, it does not mean they are close to a final signing. Tehran insists that current negotiations are focused strictly on ending active hostilities and lifting the U.S. economic and naval blockade, rather than broader nuclear concessions. Iran insists it will not impose traditional tolls for passage through the strategic Strait of Hormuz, but says it expects compensation for maritime security and environmental services provided.

Oil prices drop more than 5% after Trump says Iran talks are moving in 'constructive' direction -  Oil prices dropped Monday after President Trump said negotiations with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz were moving ahead — though traders remained braced for more potential chaos as the blockade that has choked global energy supplies drags on. International benchmark Brent crude had declined 7% to $96 as of the late afternoon, while US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude went down 6% to $90, after Trump voiced progress on talks with Iran. “The negotiations are proceeding in an orderly and constructive manner,” he wrote Sunday on social media, while cautioning that the US would “not rush into a deal.”  Monday’s selloff extended losses from last week, when WTI dropped more than 8% and Brent fell more than 5% after Trump said he halted imminent airstrikes on Iran to give diplomacy more time. Oil prices plunged nearly 6% Monday after President Trump said negotiations with Iran over reopening the Strait of Hormuz were advancing.AFP via Getty ImagesStill, despite Monday’s decline, crude remains dramatically elevated from prewar levels after surging more than 30% since the US and Israel launched strikes against Iran in late February. Scott Martin, a partner at Kingsview Wealth Management, told The Post that investors may be prematurely pricing in a resolution to the Iran crisis even as major risks remain unresolved.“I think the market may be getting a little ahead of itself here,” he said. “Every positive headline around Iran talks seems to knock oil lower, but the actual supply situation still looks pretty tight.“A lot of traders are acting like this thing is almost resolved already, and I don’t think we’re there yet,” he added. “You still have production offline and the Strait of Hormuz is still a real wildcard.” The latest rout was driven by mounting hopes that Washington and Tehran could eventually hammer out a framework to reopen Hormuz — the narrow waterway that handles roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply, which has become the epicenter of the largest energy shock in modern history.Iran has maintained a de-facto blockade of the strait since early March, forcing vessels to seek permission before passage or risk attack.The move followed the killing of Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and a number of top regime figures in US and Israeli strikes.The US retaliated with its own blockade targeting Iranian ports and shipping.Trump said Sunday that the American crackdown would remain in “full force and effect until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed.”But even as Wall Street cheered signs of diplomacy, analysts warned the market may be getting ahead of itself. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said there was a “pretty solid thing on the table” involving reopening the strait and beginning temporary nuclear negotiations with Tehran, though Iranian officials quickly poured cold water on expectations of an imminent breakthrough. Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said talks had advanced on several issues but stressed that did not mean Tehran was close to signing an agreement.The mixed messaging underscored the fragile state of negotiations — and the enormous risk still hanging over global oil markets. The International Energy Agency estimates that more than 14 million barrels per day of oil production remains shut in across the Gulf region, while cumulative supply disruptions have already topped 1 billion barrels.Global inventories plunged by roughly 250 million barrels during March and April as refiners scrambled to replace missing Middle Eastern crude, the IEA oil market report from last week said.Crude prices remain elevated after the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran triggered massive supply disruptions across global energy markets.AFP via Getty ImagesEven if a deal is eventually reached, analysts expect it could take months — not days — for tanker traffic, insurance markets and damaged production facilities to normalize. That reality has left traders caught between collapsing geopolitical optimism and an energy market still suffering from severe physical shortages.“Physical oil flows” remain the key issue, UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo told Reuters, warning investors not to overreact to headlines about diplomacy while shipping through Hormuz remains heavily restricted.The Energy Information Administration still expects Brent crude to average above $100 a barrel in the near term before potentially easing later this year if Gulf traffic gradually resumes.Martin warned that crude could quickly rebound if negotiations stall after markets already stripped out much of the geopolitical risk premium.“If these talks drag out or fall apart, oil could move right back up fast because the market already pulled some of that fear premium out,” he told The Post. “The bigger issue right now is mixed messaging,” Martin added. “One day it sounds like progress, the next day it sounds tense again. That makes it really hard for traders to know what’s real and what’s just short-term headline movement.”Dan Doyle, author of “Of Roughnecks & Riches” and a veteran of the oil and gas industry, told The Post that US energy producers remain skeptical that any emerging agreement with Iran will meaningfully ease pressure on oil markets. “Trump has been really good at keeping prices down — remember oil ran up to $130 when Russia invaded Ukraine — but even if there is a deal, it doesn’t address uranium up front,” Doyle said, referring to US calls for Tehran to dispose of its nuclear material. He added that producers increasingly see the negotiations as either “another Iranian stall tactic or a U.S. attempt to keep a lid on prices, or both.”Doyle said drilling activity in the US continues to ramp up despite the market selloff because producers expect supply disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz to keep crude elevated. “Producers are picking up rigs and frack spreads are selling out,” he told The Post.“Not because of this deal, but because of the Straits of Hormuz being closed. Three months of supply disruptions means prices will settle higher for longer. That’s what’s driving activity at home.”Meanwhile, the shipping crisis remains acute.War-risk insurance premiums for tankers have soared more than 1,000% since the conflict erupted, with some vessels facing insurance charges approaching $7 million per voyage.

Oil Prices Jump After U.S. Strikes Iranian Missile Sites - Oil prices spiked in early Asian trade on Tuesday, after the U.S. military launched strikes on targets in southern Iran, reigniting fears of military action just a day after prices had dropped dramatically on promises of a peace deal. At the time of writing, Brent futures had climbed to $98.39 per barrel, up 2.34% on the session after plunging 7% on Monday. WTI futures also climbed, but, as there was no settlement on Memorial Day, they remained 4.98% down from the start of the week at $91.79.U.S. Central Command confirmed the strikes on Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz, including missile launch sites and vessels allegedly attempting to lay naval mines.According to CENTCOM, the strikes were “designed to protect our troops from threats posed by Iranian forces.” Iranian media reported explosions around the city of Bandar Abbas on Monday evening, but did not specify the source of the explosions.The strikes come just as negotiations appeared to be making progress, with Iran’s parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, travelling to Qatar on Monday in an attempt to finalize the deal.Marco Rubio had even floated the idea of a deal being finalized on Monday, although any permanent solution would remain over a month away as the current negotiations are focused mainly on extending the ceasefire for 60 days and reopening the Strait.A report from Nikkei, citing a Middle East diplomatic source, said Iran could agree to clear mines from the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days under the proposed framework, allowing commercial shipping to resume freely while ending transit fee collections imposed during the conflict. As well as promises of a deal, there has been a slight uptick in vessels passing through the Strait. Ship-tracking data showed several LNG carriers recently passed through the strait en route to Pakistan, China, and India. A supertanker carrying Iraqi crude to China also reportedly completed transit after remaining stranded for nearly three months. As always, markets will remain on edge until a durable reopening of Hormuz is achieved, with volatility likely to remain until then. While further military action would spark a major spike in prices, traders appear to be expecting a diplomatic breakthrough.

Brent crude climbs as Iran vows retaliation against ceasefire violations after US military strikes - Brent crude oil rose Tuesday as U.S. military operations in southern Iran and President Donald Trump's mixed messaging on the negotiations between Tehran and Washington kept traders on edge. July futures for international benchmark Brent crude gained 3.4% to $99.39 a barrel by 10:45 a.m. in London (5:45 a.m. ET), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for July were trading 3.9% lower at $92.85 per barrel compared with Friday's close. There was no WTI price settlement on Monday due to the U.S. Memorial Day holiday. The U.S. military said it "conducted self-defense strikes in southern Iran today," targeting vessels allegedly trying to deploy mines, as well as missile launch locations. The U.S. Central Command said the actions were intended "to protect our troops from threats posed by Iranian forces." Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on Tuesday said it would retaliate against violations of the ongoing ceasefire after it identified and engaged U.S. drones and an F-35 jet fighter that entered the country's airspace. The Islamic Republic's semi-official Tasnim news agency separately described recent talks with the U.S. as "overall good," citing an informed source, but said a memorandum of understanding with Washington would be dependent on the release of $24 billion in frozen Iranian funds. Complicating peace talks further, Trump said in a social media post Monday that he had encouraged Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt and Jordan to join the Abraham Accords aimed at normalizing Arab nations' ties with Israel. Trump also said negotiations with Iran were "proceeding nicely," but cautioned that the U.S. could resume military action if discussions were to collapse. "It will only be a Great Deal for all or, no Deal at all," Trump wrote. Swiss multinational investment bank UBS said Friday the global oil market was showing mounting signs of strain as inventories continue to fall amid ongoing disruptions to shipments via the Strait of Hormuz. Observed global oil inventories dropped by a combined 246 million barrels in March and April, while cumulative production losses could exceed 1 billion barrels by the end of May, the bank said. The sharp inventory drawdowns suggest the market remains "strongly undersupplied," UBS said, pointing to falling on-land crude and refined product inventories even as oil stored on tankers rose due to rerouted U.S. exports to Asia.

Brent Rises as US Strikes Cast Doubt on Iran Peace Deal (DTN) -- Brent crude oil futures rebounded Tuesday morning after the U.S. carried out fresh attacks on Iran despite an existing ceasefire, raising doubts that a peace deal with Iran was imminent. By 8:30 a.m. EDT, ICE Brent for July delivery was up $2.92 to trade near $99.06 bbl, and NYMEX WTI for July delivery fell $3.88 to $92.72 bbl. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD futures for June delivery retreated $0.0796 to $3.8082 gallon, and front-month NYMEX RBOB futures fell $0.1308 to $3.3231 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index softened by 0.135 points to 99.05 against a basket of foreign currencies. Oil prices slumped after several senior U.S. officials over the weekend touted significant progress in negotiations with Iran to end the war that has been disrupting more than 15% of global oil supply for nearly three months. On Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump in a social media post said that negotiations were "proceeding nicely." Ten hours after the statement, the U.S. military launched strikes on southern Iran, saying they had targeted missile sites and ships laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran said it considered the attacks a breach of the ceasefire and announced possible retaliatory strikes on U.S. military bases in the region. Following Tehran's response to the attacks, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Tuesday qualified his earlier statements about an imminent peace deal, saying negotiations could take several more days. NYMEX traded oil and product futures, meanwhile, slipped from the previous trading day as there was no settlement Monday due to a U.S. holiday. WTI continued to trade at a steep discount to Brent, hovering around $6.32 bbl, compared to $6.94 bbl at Friday's close. Market participants were also tracking signs of possible demand destruction and stunted economic growth amid growing inflationary pressures and soaring energy prices caused by the largest oil supply disruption in history. The second of three estimates for first quarter GDP growth is scheduled for release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis on Thursday, May 28. In April, BEA estimated the U.S. economy to have expanded by 2% in the first three months of the year after GDP growth slowed to 0.5% in 4Q2025.

Oil Prices Swing Amid U.S. Strikes in Iran as Hopes for Quick Peace Deal Fade -- The crude market settled lower on Tuesday after the market retraced some of it losses on the news that the U.S. military carried out strikes in Iran, adding to uncertainty on whether a peace deal will be imminently reached to end the war. The market gapped lower over the long Memorial Day weekend from $94.73 to $93.88 as optimism increased that the United States and Iran were moving closer to a peace deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. On Monday, Iran’s top negotiator and its Foreign Minister were in Doha for talks with Qatar’s Prime Minister on a potential deal with the U.S. to end the war. Both sides said they made progress on a memorandum of understanding that would halt the war and give negotiators 60 days to reach a final deal. The crude market sold off to a low of $89.41 during Monday’s shortened trading session in observance of Memorial Day. However, the market retraced its losses and started to backfill its gap as it traded to $94.70 by mid-day on Tuesday. The market was supported by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stating that negotiating a deal with Iran could “take a few days,” cutting hopes for an imminent end to the conflict a day after U.S. forces conducted what Washington called defensive strikes in southern Iran. The oil market settled in a sideways trading range amid the continuing uncertainty. The July WTI contract ended the session down $2.71 at $93.89, while the July Brent contract settled up $3.44 at $99.58. The product markets ended the session lower, with the heating oil market settling down 17.32 cents at $3.7146 and the RB market settling down 23.34 cents at $3.2205. U.S. President Donald Trump said he asked countries including the UAE, Qatar, Pakistan, Egypt and Jordan to sign onto the Abraham Accords as part of U.S. efforts to reach a deal with Iran. He said those countries would be honored to have Iran as part of the accords, a set of agreements to normalize relations with Israel. The Nikkei newspaper reported, citing a Middle East diplomatic source, that the U.S. and Iran are discussing a plan to open the Strait of Hormuz about 30 days after the two countries reach a deal to end hostilities. Iran would proceed to clear mines from the strait during a 30-day window following an agreement, after which ships from all countries would be able to navigate freely and safely, and Iran would stop collecting transit fees. The ceasefire agreed in early April would be extended for 60 days, with the plan to hold talks on Iran’s nuclear program during the two-month pause. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei said that Gulf powers will no longer be a shield for United States bases and the U.S. will no longer have a safe haven in the region. A source close to Tehran’s negotiation team said around $24 billion of Iranian funds frozen overseas must be released under a memorandum of understanding being negotiated with the United States. Iran’s top negotiator, Mohammad Baqr Qalibaf, had travelled to Qatar to reach agreement on a mechanism to implement this demand. IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 178,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending May 29th, increasing available refining capacity by 50,000 bpd from the previous week. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 132,000 bpd in the week ending June 5th..

Oil Prices Fall as Traders Bet on U.S.-Iran Deal - Oil prices dropped by around 4% early on Wednesday as hopes of a U.S.-Iran deal outweighed concerns about rapidly drawing inventories as the Strait of Hormuz remained closed on the back of fresh U.S.-Iran hostilities.  As of early Wednesday trade in Europe, WTI Crude, the U.S. benchmark, is down by 4.32% at $89.83 per barrel. The international benchmark, Brent Crude, had fallen 3.66% to $95.94, remaining below the $100 a barrel mark for the third consecutive day.. Traders and speculators appear hopeful, again, that the United States and Iran could be close to a framework agreement that would extend the ceasefire by 60 days and allow further negotiations on the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear program. “Oil prices are under pressure on Wednesday morning amid shifting expectations around a potential US?Iran deal, although risks remain elevated with ongoing tension near the Strait of Hormuz,” ING commodities strategists said in a note early on Wednesday.“Prices are under pressure from improved sentiment around a potential US?Iran deal, even as hostilities continue and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Military activity persists near the strait, including US strikes and reported Iranian engagement,” the strategists noted. On Tuesday, Iran accused the U.S. of a “grave violation” of the ceasefire, following the new U.S. strikes on missile sites and boats in southern Iran, which the U.S. Central Command described as “self-defense.” U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who earlier this week played down the possibility of an imminent deal, said an agreement was still in the realm of possibility, but U.S. President Donald Trump wants to either “make a good deal,” or no deal at all. The noise around a potential deal has continuously trumped market fundamentals in recent weeks, with traders trying to play the market on hopes of an agreement and largely ignoring the global energy crunch, with most supply from the Middle East still trapped behind the Strait of Hormuz. Inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) later today, and the EIA weekly petroleum report on Thursday, could move the oil market in the coming hours while traders hope for – and apparently bet on – a U.S.-Iran deal.

Oil prices fall after Iran state media says deal with US would include restored Hormuz shipping -- Oil prices fell sharply on Wednesday morning as traders looked for momentum in US-Iran negotiations, with hopes spurred by reports from Iranian state media that such a deal would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Futures on Brent crude. the international benchmark, fell as much as 4.2% to briefly trade below $93 per barrel, while those on US benchmark WTI crude stumbled by as much as 5.7% to trade below $89. Oil prices dropped precipitously at around 9 a.m. ET after Iranian state media, which is understood to be tightly controlled by the regime, reported that a draft memorandum between the United States and Iran said Iran would restore shipping through the Strait ⁠of Hormuz to ⁠pre-war levels within 30 days, while the ⁠United States ⁠would withdraw ⁠its military from the area and lift its ‌naval blockade. Prices had ticked up on Monday and Tuesday after the United States said it launched a new round of airstrikes in southern Iran, the US military’s first major action against the Islamic Republic since the two nations initially agreed to a ceasefire. While the United States called the strikes “defensive,” Iran Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said the Middle East will “no longer serve as shields for US [military] bases.” Without further escalation, traders have swung their focus back to President Trump’s announcement over the weekend that Washington and Tehran are close to agreeing on terms to restart peace negotiations, with a full ceasefire on all fronts and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as preliminary conditions. News that three LNG tankers, headed for Pakistan and China, had successfully passed through the strait over the past few days has also kept prices from rising. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps said Tuesday that 25 ships had crossed the strait after being granted permission over the preceding 24 hours, according to local media. “The markets are just waiting for something tangible now when it comes to a deal between the US and Iran,” “A lot of good news is priced-in, leaving room for disappointment if something comprehensive isn’t announced — especially if it doesn’t offer clarity and certainty about the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz,” Both the president and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have tempered expectations over the last few days, as Trump noted that both sides must “take their time” and Rubio said in India on Tuesday that negotiating a deal with Iran could "take a few days.” "The straits have to be open, Rubio said. "They're going to be open one way or the other, so they need to be open.” JPMorgan analysts said Wednesday that their base case remains a reopening of the Strait by the end of June, forced by mounting pressure on global oil inventories — though a need to rebuild those inventories will likely keep Brent prices near $100 per barrel through year-end. Analysts have increasingly noted that global commercial oil stocks have been drawn down to levels approaching minimum amounts needed for systems such as pipelines and storage tanks to function, which could drive prices higher. “When you have no crude in storage, THEN and only then will the spot price move to a level to destroy demand. I have no idea if it is 150, or 200, or 250,” Jeff Currie, prior co-head of commodities at Goldman Sachs, said.

Oil Market Trades Lower on Progress in U.S. Iran Peace Talks -- The oil market traded lower on Wednesday on progress in U.S.-Iran peace talks. The market posted a high of $93.69 on the opening and continued on a downward trend amid hopes for a framework agreement between the U.S and Iran to end the conflict despite the recent U.S. strikes on Iranian missile sites and vessels that were attempting to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz. The crude market extended its losses to over $6 as it posted a low of $87.77 early in the morning amid the news of a draft framework for a memorandum of understanding. Under the framework, Iran would restore commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to pre-war levels within a month, while the U.S. would withdraw its military forces from Iran’s vicinity and lift its naval blockade of the waterway. The market later bounced off its low and settled in a sideways trading range after the White House said the Iranian report for draft framework is false and President Trump said that while Iran wanted to make a deal, the U.S. was not satisfied with it yet. The July WTI contract settled down $5.21 at $88.68 and the July Brent contract settled down $5.29 at $94.29. The product markets ended the session lower, with the heating oil market settling down 11.71 cents at $3.5975 and the RB market settled down 8.68 cents at $3.1337. U.S. President Donald Trump said his administration may talk with Congress about the possibility of legislating a federal gas tax holiday. IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 180,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending May 29^th, increasing available refining capacity by 48,000 bpd from the previous week. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 138,000 bpd in the week ending June 5^th.According to Kpler, a cargo of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is headed to California this month for the first time ever. California, once a top oil-producing state in the U.S., has in recent years become more dependent on crude imports, including about 230,000 bpd last year from the Middle East. About 460,000 barrels of Bayou Choctaw Sweet crude headed to Chevron’s Richmond refinery in California, while another 50,000 barrels of the same grade discharged at Chevron’s El Segundo refinery.Flint Hills Resources reported flaring due to operating conditions at its 268,500 bpd Corpus Christi West refinery.PBF Energy’s 160,000 bpd refinery in Torrance, California experienced an unplanned flaring event.Dallas Federal Reserve President, Lorie Logan, said the world may need to find a way to get by on less oil and gas if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed much longer due to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. She said “With supplies highly constrained, if shipping through the strait does not soon return to prewar levels, world oil and natural gas consumption could need to fall more meaningfully than it has so far.” She added “The economic consequences would depend on the degree to which end users can switch to other energy sources or use energy more efficiently, versus curtailing economic activity.”

Oil Prices Jump After Fresh U.S. Strikes on Iran -Oil prices spiked once again in early Asian trade on Thursday after reports of fresh U.S. strikes on Iranian military targets reignited fears that the most recent round of peace talks could give way to further escalation.  At the time of writing, WTI was trading at $90.51, up 2.06% on the session, while Brent crude had climbed 2.17% to trade at $96.34. The jump comes after both benchmarks dropped by more than 7% this week as traders became increasingly optimistic over a potential agreement that could restore traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Those hopes are now fading after reports that the U.S. military carried out strikes on southern Iran and shot down four Iranian attack drones. A U.S. official from Central Command claimed the action was defensive as the ground control station hit was about to launch a fifth drone. The latest military action followed comments from President Trump on Wednesday that suggested he was in no rush to sign an agreement. The president said that while a good deal could be made right now, “if it's not a great deal, we're not making it." At the same conference, Trump said that the U.S. was not “talking about any easing of sanctions or giving money”. As usual, his comments included a threat to “finish them off” if Iran failed to meet his terms.One of the reasons oil traders had embraced the possibility of a diplomatic breakthrough this week was signals from Iranian media that a potential ceasefire extension was nearing, with suggestions it would include sanctions relief and the release of frozen Iranian assets. Now, Trump’s latest comments, as well as divisions inside Tehran, appear to be complicating that thesis.According to reporting by the FT, Iranian ultra-hardliners are now openly attacking negotiators for considering compromises with Washington, insisting Tehran maintain full authority over the Strait of Hormuz and refuse any concessions on uranium enrichment.As well as the renewed geopolitical risk, bullish inventory data is adding to the upward pressure on oil prices and highlighting the crisis in physical markets.On Wednesday evening, the American Petroleum Institute reported that U.S. crude stockpiles fell by 2.8 million barrels last week, marking the sixth consecutive weekly decline. Official EIA data is due later on Thursday due to a one-day delay tied to the Memorial Day holiday.For now, the ceasefire survives, and talks are continuing, but the risk of a major price spike will remain until a durable peace agreement is signed and a long-term solution to ensuring traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is found.

'Tank Bottoms' Loom At Cushing After Across-The-Board Inventory Draws, Another Huge SPR Drain - Oil prices bounced higher overnight after the US and Iran exchanged new strikes despite their purported ceasefire, rekindling uncertainty about an end to the Middle East war. The latest strikes were the most serious since an April ceasefire, and came despite a series of headlines suggesting talks on a deal were progressing. "A fresh exchange of strikes between the two countries is testing the fragile ceasefire and forcing a reassessment of the chances of a near-term agreement which can reopen the Strait of Hormuz and dial down the pressure the crisis is putting on the global economy," But then, around 1000ET, Axios reports that U.S. and Iranian negotiators have reached an agreement on a 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire and launch negotiations on Iran's nuclear program. That sent oil prices reeling lower... With the geopolitical headlines so dominant, this morning's official US crude inventory and supply data is taking a back seat to Washington and Tehran again (despite some chunky draws reported by API overnight). API:

• Crude -2.8mm
• Cushing -2.9mm
• Gasoline -3.19mm
• Distillates +1.1mm

DOE:

• Crude -3.33mm (-3.2mm exp)
• Cushing -2.79mm - biggest draw since Aug 2023
• Gasoline -2.57mm
• Distillates -2.11mm

Inventories saw across the board drawdowns with Cushing standing out. Distillate draws returned as gasoline stocks fell for the 15th straight week Graphics Source: Bloomberg. 'Tank Bottoms' loom as inventory at Cushing is the lowest for this time of year since 2014... The Strategic Petroleum Reserve saw another major drawdown (over 9mm barrels)... US Crude production ticked higher as rig counts are rising rapidly... The market has backed away from believing the Axios report (after a denial from Iranian news) and the big draw is helping WTI recover... "The bigger picture is that crude is still on course for a second weekly decline, suggesting investors are not yet pricing in a worst-case disruption," Hargreaves Lansdown analyst Matt Britzman said. "For now, the market looks caught between short-term nerves over renewed hostilities and a lingering hope that both sides still have enough incentive to get energy flows moving," he added. Investment strategist Ed Yardeni wrote in an overnight note that "oil markets will be in dire straits" if the Strait of Hormuz doesn't open soon. He sketched out looming crisis points that have turned the U.S.-Iran negotiation into the "ultimate game of chicken." The U.S. blockade of Iranian ports means the country's oil industry is producing too much and storage capacity is quickly filling. Yardeni concludes that Iran has until mid- or late June before storage is maxed out, forcing a sharp cut in production to domestic consumption levels. "The toll on Iran's oil industry and its broader economy is certainly one of President Trump's best negotiating cards," he wrote. Yardeni further notes that oil inventories in Asia are already approaching minimum levels, meaning the war-driven dearth of oil imports will soon lead to shortages. Europe faces the same situation, possibly by late June. Yardeni highlighted International Energy Agency Director Faith Birol's warning that depleted stocks and high usage during the summer travel season could push global oil markets into "the red zone in July or August."

Oil Prices Rise As Iran Draws Red Line on Uranium -- Oil prices rose on Thursday as fresh signs of trouble in Iran peace talks as the parties hit a wall over enriched uranium. WTI crude climbed 2.2% to $100.40 while Brent gained 1.8% to $106.90 as reports emerged that Iran's Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has drawn a hard line on one of Washington's key demands: the removal of Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium. According to Reuters, Khamenei issued a directive that near-weapons-grade uranium must remain inside Iran, complicating already fragile negotiations aimed at ending the U.S.-Israeli conflict. Uranium has been one of the major pressure points in negotiations. Israeli officials have reportedly said that President Trump previously assured Israel that any agreement would include removing Iran's enriched uranium stockpile from the country. Iranian officials, meanwhile, appear increasingly unwilling to make that concession. "The Supreme Leader's directive, and the consensus within the establishment, is that the stockpile of enriched uranium should not leave the country," an anonymous Iranian source told Reuters. A White House spokeswoman responded by telling Reuters, “President Trump has been clear about the United States’ red lines and will only make a deal that puts the American people first.” Iranian leadership reportedly believes sending material abroad could leave the country vulnerable if hostilities resume. Reuters reported there remains "deep suspicion" among senior Iranian officials that the current pause in fighting could simply be a tactical timeout before additional strikes. Markets have repeatedly treated any suggestion of progress as a reason to sell oil, and any reminder of reality as a reason to buy it right back. The problem for traders is that the underlying supply picture has not improved very much. The Strait of Hormuz remains constrained, peace talks remain shaky, and supply disruptions tied to the conflict continue hanging over the market nearly three months after fighting began.

Oil prices settle in mixed direction on conflicting reports of US-Iran ceasefire deal (Reuters) - Oil prices settled mixed on ‌Thursday after a choppy trading session, as traders mulled conflicting reports of progress on a potential deal to extend a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. Brent crude futures for July , which expire on Friday's settlement, closed down 58 cents, or 0.6%, ​at $93.71 a barrel. The more actively traded August Brent futures were last trading up by ​72 cents at $92.97 as of 3:20 p.m. EDT (1720 GMT). U.S. oil futures eked out marginal ⁠gains to settle up 22 cents, or 0.3%, at $88.90 a barrel. Oil prices have been volatile in recent ​sessions on conflicting signals on the possibility of an end to the three-month Iran war and potential re-opening of the Strait ​of Hormuz. Traffic through the maritime chokepoint remains a small fraction of the pre-war level. An agreement had been reached to extend the ceasefire in the Middle East for 60 days, four sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. News outlet Axios ​first reported about the deal on Thursday. The agreement still needs U.S. President Donald Trump's approval, sources told ​Reuters. Iran's Tasnim news agency, meanwhile, said the text of a potential memorandum of understanding with the U.S. has ‌not yet ⁠been finalized or confirmed. In early trading, Brent and WTI futures were up more than 2%, after Iran's Revolutionary Guards said they had targeted a U.S. air base in response to a U.S. attack on the port city of Bandar Abbas. "The complex continues to advance grudgingly on bullish developments out of Iran while plunging markedly on even the slightest ​suggestion of a reopening ​of the Strait of ⁠Hormuz," oil trading advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates said. "This contrast in responses to bullish and bearish inputs could continue as long as the ceasefire remains intact." Oil ​prices were also under pressure from official U.S. data that showed the country's crude oil stockpiles fell by 3.3 ​million barrels ⁠last week, a sixth consecutive week of declines but lower than the 4.1-million-barrel draw analysts polled by Reuters expected. Does that force a rethink of what the pay trade economy actually includes in your ETFs? U.S. gasoline and distillate fuel stockpiles also fell. The oil market remains more sensitive to Middle East headlines despite another ⁠week ​of large declines in U.S. stockpiles, UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.

Oil Prices Slip Following Reports of Iran-U.S. Deal Understanding - Global oil prices dropped sharply following reports of a possible understanding between Iran and the United States to extend the ceasefire and begin negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program. According to international media reports, the price of Brent crude oil dropped to $93.7 per barrel, while WTI crude oil fell to $88.9 per barrel in global trading, The Caspian Post reports, citing Daily Ausaf.  In addition, the price of Murban crude oil also declined to $93.3 per barrel. The decline in oil prices came after reports that negotiators from Iran and the United States had agreed on a 60-day memorandum of understanding (MoU) to extend the ceasefire and begin talks regarding Iran’s nuclear activities. According to Axios, citing informed sources, US President Donald Trump has not yet granted final approval to the proposed understanding. The report stated that if signed, the memorandum could become the most significant diplomatic breakthrough since the beginning of the conflict. However, sources indicated that difficult and detailed negotiations would still be required to reach a final agreement addressing Washington’s demands regarding Iran’s nuclear programme. Market analysts say easing tensions in the Middle East generally reduce fears of supply disruptions, leading to downward pressure on global oil prices.

Crude oil prices slide 19% in May, post worst monthly fall since 2020; Will US-Iran peace deal deepen losses? - Crude oil prices declined on Friday, 29 May, after the US and Iran tentatively agreed to extend the ceasefire by 60 days, raising hopes of smoother oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude slipped towards $92 per barrel and is on track for its biggest monthly decline since 2020, falling nearly 19% in May, while WTI crude hovered around $87. Reports suggested that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could remain unrestricted, although US officials indicated that discussions were still ongoing and no final agreement had been reached. Vice President JD Vance said it was too early to determine whether a formal deal with Iran would materialise. Oil prices continue to face downward pressure amid hopes for a resolution to the Middle East conflict, though earlier positive sentiment over negotiations has since diminished without any agreements. The turmoil around the Strait of Hormuz previously caused a significant global energy crisis, affecting daily oil supply by millions of barrels. Even with hopes for an extension of the ceasefire, numerous obstacles persist, including clearing mines from shipping lanes, restarting closed oil fields, repairing damaged energy infrastructure, and resuming normal cargo transport. Brent crude has fallen by 10.5% this week, experiencing its largest weekly drop since April 2020, while WTI crude has decreased by 9.2%, representing its most significant weekly decline since that same month in 2020. On the home front, MCX crude oil prices have decreased in 7 of the last 8 trading sessions, losing nearly 17% over that period. According to Vandana Bharti, Head of Commodity Research at SMC Global Securities, Brent crude’s nearly 19% decline this month to around $91 per barrel reflects a sharp unwinding of geopolitical risk premiums, though strong market fundamentals continue to support prices. She noted that consecutive multi-million-barrel global inventory drawdowns in March and April, along with a projected second-quarter supply deficit ahead of the peak summer driving season, are likely to limit further downside. Bharti added that escalating war-risk premiums and rerouted shipping routes have widened the Brent-WTI spread to more than $5 per barrel. She believes that if a formal ceasefire agreement is reached, Brent crude could fall below $85 and eventually find support near $80–82. In the domestic market, MCX crude oil may then slip below the ₹8,200 support level and head towards the major base around ₹7,500. However, if peace talks fail, strong demand and supply deficits could trigger a sharp rebound in Brent prices towards $110–115 per barrel, while MCX crude may move above ₹9,155 and retest the ₹9,400–9,600 zone. Kaveri More, Commodity Analyst at Choice Broking, said Brent crude has corrected by nearly 18% this month amid concerns over slowing global demand, easing geopolitical tensions, and expectations that Saudi Arabia will lower official selling prices for Asia for the second straight month. She noted that despite ongoing Middle East tensions, weak refining margins and sluggish Asian demand continue to weigh on crude prices. According to More, the overall outlook for MCX crude oil remains moderately bearish, with prices likely to face selling pressure on rallies unless geopolitical tensions escalate significantly. She sees immediate support near ₹8,100, with a sustained breakdown potentially dragging prices towards ₹7,750. On the upside, resistance is placed in the ₹8,900–9,500 range, where fresh selling interest is expected to emerge. According to Dhaval Popat, Analyst – Energy at Choice Institutional Equities, Brent crude prices are currently reacting more to geopolitical headlines than underlying fundamentals. He said the recent sharp correction has largely been driven by optimism surrounding a potential US-Iran agreement and expectations that shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz could gradually normalise. Popat added that any formal announcement or positive progress in negotiations could push Brent crude prices lower in the near term. However, he noted that the physical oil market remains considerably tighter than current prices indicate. Over the past two months, a global supply deficit of nearly 7–11 million barrels per day has only been partially offset by higher US production and releases from strategic petroleum reserves. Continued inventory drawdowns suggest that underlying demand-supply balances remain tight despite the recent price decline. Popat believes that while crude oil may remain under pressure if diplomatic efforts progress, the downside is unlikely to be unlimited. Any delay in finalising a deal, slower-than-expected restoration of oil flows, or renewed disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could quickly revive the geopolitical risk premium. In such a scenario, Brent crude could climb back above $100 per barrel during the peak summer demand season in July. He expects Brent crude to average around $82 per barrel in FY27 under the base-case scenario. However, if prolonged disruptions persist and flows through Hormuz fail to normalise by the end of June, prices could average closer to $98 per barrel in FY27.

Oil Prices Head for Large Weekly Loss (DTN) -- Oil prices fell about 1% or more on Friday morning as reports of a potential deal to end the Iran war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to energy shipping put crude futures on track to their sharpest weekly loss since early April. By 8:20 a.m. EDT, NYMEX WTI crude for July delivery was down $1.17, or 1.3%, to $87.73 bbl. ICE Brent for July delivery fell $1.48, or 1.6%, to $92.23. For the week, both WTI and Brent were headed for a loss of more than 9%, their most since the week ended April 17. While crude prices remain elevated compared to pre-war levels of nearly $70 bbl, long liquidation is accelerating on both NYMEX and ICE as players price in a resumption of commercial shipping on Hormuz, analysts said. Among refined products, NYMEX ULSD futures for June delivery retreated by $0.0275 to $3.5912 gallon. June RBOB slipped by $0.0407 to $3.1445 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index was virtually unchanged, rising 0.04 points to 99.005 against a basket of currencies. Friday's drop in oil prices came on the back of reports that negotiators have finalized a memorandum of understanding for a 60-day ceasefire extension to reopen Hormuz, which Tehran has effectively blockaded since the start of U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran at end-February. However, the pact remains contingent upon approvals from U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. ExxonMobil warned Thursday, May 28, that oil inventories could fall to record low levels in coming weeks, forcing prices to spike and curb demand. U.S. commercial crude inventories declined for a fifth consecutive week, while distillate stocks plunged to their lowest level since 2003, according to Energy Information Administration data for the week ended May 22. Commercial crude stockpiles fell by 3.3 million bbl to 441.7 million bbl, while gasoline inventories dropped to a fresh six-month low, falling by 2.6 million bbl to 211.6 million bbl.

Oil falls on hopes for US-Iran ceasefire agreement   – Oil futures fell more than two per cent on Friday (May 29), closing out their steepest weekly decline since early April as traders awaited word that the US, Israel and Iran had reached agreement on a ceasefire. Brent crude futures for July, which expired on Friday, settled at US$92.05 (S$117.54) a barrel, down US$1.66, or 1.8 per cent. WTI US oil futures finished at US$87.36 a barrel, down US$1.54 or 1.7 per cent. "Obviously, the market thinks the ceasefire will be all easy-peasy and is done and dusted," The three-month war between the US and Iran has been marked by frequent chatter of an impending end to the conflict that would open the crucial Strait of Hormuz, used to transit one-fifth of the world's oil and gas supply. Even with both sides suggesting an agreement was forthcoming, their characterizations of the deal were still somewhat different. Iran's Fars news agency said the agreement – which it has not decided yet to approve – required Iran to open the strait without restrictions but the Islamic Republic would reopen the waterway "according to its own pre-determined arrangements." Iran has said after the conflict that it would regulate traffic through the strait, charging fees to transit. US President Donald Trump has said called again on Iran to immediately re-open the strait. The closure of the waterway has driven energy prices sharply higher worldwide. Recent sessions have been volatile, with swings by as much as US$6 for both benchmarks on conflicting signals over a potential reopening of the strait. "The questions are when are we going to open the strait? I wonder when are we going to hit the bottoms of the tanks,"  . "I'm surprised prices aren't higher." Brent has plunged by about 11 per cent this week, its steepest weekly decline in seven weeks. WTI has dropped by more than nine per cent for its biggest weekly loss in six. Both benchmarks hit their lowest price since mid-April. "While oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain restricted and oil inventories keep falling, the market focus remains on the possibility of a deal between the US and Iran," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. "The price drop could be forcing some market players to close their long positions." The US and Iran reached a tentative agreement on Thursday to extend a ceasefire and lift restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, sources told Reuters. Traffic through the maritime chokepoint remains a small fraction of levels before the conflict. Analysts at ING said a reopening of the waterway would offer some immediate relief to the oil market, but a recovery is still uncertain. Japan, which relies heavily on oil from the Middle East, last month registered a 66 per cent drop in crude oil imports compared with April last year. Commerzbank raised its Brent forecasts to US$90 a barrel by the end of September and US$85 by the end of the year, based on a scenario in which the strait remains closed to normal shipping for another two months. US crude, gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell last week, the Energy Information Administration said on Thursday, as demand from refiners and consumers rose, while exports fell by 1.16 million barrels per day to 4.4 million barrels per day..

Saudi Arabia Expected to Slash Oil Prices Again --  Saudi Arabia is expected to slash again the official selling prices of the crude it will load for Asia in July amid weakening demand and narrowing spot Middle East crude premiums, a Reuters survey of industry sources showed on Friday.   Saudi Arabia, the world’s top crude exporter, is set to cut the official selling price (OSP) for its flagship Arab Light crude loading for Asia in July by $3 to $8 per barrel from June, to a premium of between $7.50 and $12.50 a barrel over the average Oman/Dubai prices, the benchmark for Middle East’s oil, according to the survey.    This would be the second consecutive major price cut of Saudi pricing, after the record-high premium of $19.50 a barrel for loadings for Asia in May, which the Kingdom announced in early April. Early this month, Arab Light crude loading for Asia in June was priced at $15.50 per barrel above the Oman/Dubai average, down by $4 a barrel compared to the record high $19.50 premium for May.The Saudi price cut is expected to follow a weakening spot market and spot trades in May. So far this month, the cash Dubai premium to swaps has averaged $8.90 per barrel, compared to an average premium of $13.92 a barrel in April, according to Reuters data. The spot premium for Oman crude has also slid in May, suggesting tepid spot market demand. Additionally, Brent Crude prices have slumped below the $100 per barrel market this week – and were at $93 in Asian trade on Friday – amid market hopes that the U.S. and Iran could reach a deal.The industry in Asia expects Saudi Arabia to slash the OSPs of the other Saudi grades, similarly to the cut in Arab Light prices, according to the Reuters survey.Saudi Arabia typically announces around the fifth of each month its crude pricing for the following month and doesn’t comment on price changes.

Oil and LNG tankers exit Hormuz, heading for Pakistan and China (Reuters) - Ship-tracking data showed three liquefied natural gas tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz in recent days, heading to Pakistan, China and India, as well as a supertanker with Iraqi crude for China after being stranded for nearly three months. The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran that began on February 28 has severely curtailed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world's oil and LNG supply normally flows. The vessels join a handful of supertankers leaving the Gulf this month via a transit route that Iran has ordered ships to use. Last week, three Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) made their way to China and South Korea with 6 million barrels of crude. LNG tanker Fuwairit crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Monday and is expected to discharge its cargo in Pakistan on Tuesday, LSEG and Kpler shipping data showed. The vessel, sailing under the Bahamas flag, loaded LNG at Qatar's Ras Laffan port around March 28. Japan's Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (MOL), which owns the Fuwairit, declined to comment. The LNG tanker Al Rayyan has also passed through the waterway. Carrying a cargo loaded at Ras Laffan, it was last seen in the Gulf on May 22, and is now located outside the strait between Iran and Oman. It is expected to discharge its cargo in China on June 27, LSEG and Kpler data shows. QatarEnergy, which owns Al Rayyan, did not respond immediately to a request for comment outside office hours. A tanker managed by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) also crossed the strait. The Al Hamra was last seen on April 19 east of the strait. It reappeared on ship-tracking data on May 23 off the coast of India, Kpler data shows. ADNOC did not respond immediately to a request for comment. Separately, the VLCC Eagle Verona, which exited the strait on Saturday, is expected to reach Ningbo port in eastern China on June 12 to discharge its cargo, LSEG and Kpler data showed. The Singaporean-flagged vessel chartered by Unipec, the trading arm of Asian refiner Sinopec, loaded nearly 2 million barrels of Basrah crude around February 26, the data showed. The Eagle Verona was among seven ships for which Malaysia had sought permission to transit, two sources had told Reuters. Five of the ships have since exited the waterway while two more remain in the Gulf. Sinopec and Malaysian state shipper MISC, which owns the vessel, could not be reached for immediate comment. Before ​the war began, shipping traffic through the strait averaged 125 ‌to ⁠140 daily passages. About 20,000 seafarers remain stranded on hundreds of ships in the Gulf.

Fuel spill after Greek tanker hit by explosion off Oman -- UK maritime security authorities reported that a tanker was hit by an external explosion 60 nm east of Oman. UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said that the Master of a tanker reported an external explosion port side aft of the vessel close to the waterline at 09:45 hrs UTC on 26 May. “The crew and vessel are safe, although the Master reports some bunker fuel has discharged into the sea,” UKMTO said in an attack warning. JMIC identified the vessel as the Marshall Islands-flagged VLCC Olympic Life and said it was proceeding to its next port of call. The vessel is operated by Olympic Shipping and Management founded by late Greek shipping magnate Aristotle Onassis. Reuters quoted a statement from technical manager Springfield Shipping that, "An initial assessment indicated that there was damage to one of the vessel's bunker tanks. A sheen was reported in the water after ⁠the incident." The VLCC was headed towards the Arabian Sea in the Gulf of Oman at the time of incident, and continued on its voyage, based on AIS data from Pole Star Global with its destination listed as "For orders". Related:US sanctions Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority The attack follows US strikes on two Iranian boats attempting lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz on 25 May, as well as a naval base near the port city of Bandar Abbas. US Central Command described the strikes as “self-defense” The latest strikes came as peace talks between the US and Iran were reported to be progressing around a Memorandum of Understanding which would extend the ceasefire for another 60 days and a re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz, although the two sides have differed on how close they are to an agreement.

Chevron CEO: Multiple Ships Attacked In Strait of Hormuz  - Multiple vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz have suffered attacks this week, Chevron Corp. Chief Executive Officer Mike Wirth revealed in an interview on Bloomberg TV on Friday. According to Wirth, these previously unreported incidents highlight ongoing risks for ships plying the channel despite any ongoing diplomatic efforts. Commercial shipping traffic through the key chokepoint--which normally carries 20% of the world’s petroleum--remains paralyzed with traffic at roughly 10% of its pre-war levels.Wirth says Chevron currently has six vessels under charter operating within the Persian Gulf. However, the CEO is adamant that his company will not consider paying any form of toll or fee to secure passage for its cargo through the Strait of Hormuz. In any case, these ships belong to third parties, implying that the burden of paying Iran’s levies falls on them. Iran began demanding upfront cash payments of up to $2 million per tanker from select operators in March in exchange for guaranteed safe passage. However, the United States has strictly warned shipping companies that paying these illegal tolls risks violating Western sanctions.Wirth has warned that global trade is unlikely to return to normal quickly, even if a peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran is soon reached, saying that shipowners and insurers must first rebuild confidence after months of seeing crews and ships trapped in the region. The United States and Iran are discussing a memorandum of understanding that would extend the current ceasefire and begin negotiations on a permanent settlement. The proposal includes a 60-day extension of the ceasefire, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and further talks over Iran’s nuclear program.While U.S. officials remain upbeat and have reported that Iran is negotiating in good faith, Iranian state media and officials have maintained caution, stating that no final agreement has been completely finalized nor confirmed yet.

Satellites track SO₂ emissions following March 2026 refinery fires in Tehran, Iran - On the evening of March 7, 2026, a series of explosions and fires occurred at multiple oil storage and refining facilities in Tehran, Iran. A research team has utilized a constellation of satellites to investigate and quantify this sulfur dioxide (SO₂) pollution event.The results of their study are published in the journal Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. There is a lack of high-quality, real-time ground-based atmospheric monitoring in the Middle East. This leaves a "data vacuum" when industrial disasters occur.  "We aimed to demonstrate that satellite remote sensing can fill this gap by providing wide spatial coverage and frequent observations to monitor atmospheric pollutants over large areas," said Professor Peng Zhang, Meteorological Observation Center, China Meteorological Administration.  When the March 7 explosions and fires occurred, the Fardis, Shahran, and Aghdasieh depots, as well as the Tehran Oil Refinery were devastated. The Shahran Oil Depot was particularly hard-hit, with burning oil entering the city's sewer system and igniting urban green belts, creating a major source of toxic smoke. Local residents reported immediate health impacts, such as respiratory distress, skin irritation, and a "bitter taste" in the mouth. Scientists are particularly concerned with SO₂ pollution because of its strong irritant and corrosive properties. The combustion of petroleum products mixed with local rainfall also produced "black rain," a corrosive mixture of oil droplets and soot. As a major precursor of acid rain, it poses a substantial threat to the regional atmospheric environment and public health.

May 25: Iran vows not to yield to US pressure in negotiations to end imposed war -Iran on Monday reaffirmed its unwavering position in ongoing negotiations to end the third imposed war, with senior officials vowing the Islamic Republic will not yield to US pressure or maximalist demands.Top Iranian officials, including Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, held talks with Qatari officials in Doha on Tuesday as diplomatic efforts moved forward Meanwhile, the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) reported steady and secure ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with more than 30 ships transiting in 24 hours.  The day also saw continued regional fallout, including new Israeli strikes in Lebanon and fresh disclosures about the human and economic costs of the US-Israeli war on Iran.Key developments on day 87 of the war, the forty-seventh day of the ceasefire:

• The United States carried out a deliberate and barbaric missile strike on a civilian sports hall in the city of Lamerd in Fars Province during the 40-day war against Iran, martyring 24 innocent Iranians and injuring over 130 others, Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei revealed in harrowing details.
• President Masoud Pezeshkian declared that Iran will not surrender to US pressures and maximalist demands, saying the country’s negotiators will ensure the full restoration of the nation’s rights through the diplomatic process.
• Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, in his first message since assuming office, stated that the Islamic Republic “will not retreat” in any agreement.
• Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held talks with top Qatari officials in Doha amid diplomatic efforts to end the unprovoked US-Israeli war against Iran. 
• Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman said indirect talks with the United States are centred on ending aggression on all fronts and that the nuclear issue or the management of the Stratif of Hormuz are not part of the negotiations.
• Iran’s IRGC Navy said 32 more ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours after obtaining permission from the Iranian forces following improved security in the strategic waterway. 
• Mohammad Mokhber, senior advisor to the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, said the country is repeating history by gaining strength through steadfastness.
• Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Naqdi, senior advisor to the IRGC commander-in-chief, said that the US and Israel unleashed over 2,100 projectiles and nearly 300 surface-to-surface missiles against Iran's strategic Abu Musa island during the recent war of aggression.
• Iran’s National Olympic Committee announced that it has named the contingent of Iranian athletes scheduled to participate in the 2026 Asian Indoor and Martial Arts Games after "Martyred Leader." 
• An Iranian civil aviation official said 20 airports across the country have successfully resumed operations following the recent US-Israeli aggression.
• Wafiq Safa, head of Hezbollah's Liaison and Coordination Unit, said the Lebanese resistance movement will never engage in a confrontation with the Lebanese army, and that the resistance group remains the most effective force against Israeli occupation forces.
• At least six people were killed in the latest round of Israeli airstrikes against multiple locations in southern Lebanon, as the Israeli army issued fresh evacuation orders amid ongoing military aggression.
• Gold prices rose 1.4 percent to $4,570.88 per ounce on Monday, while oil prices fell as benchmark London Brent crude fell 4 percent below $100 a barrel. The price increased amid a weaker dollar as capital investors weigh US-Iran peace deal prospects.
• The US-Israeli aggression against Iran could cost American taxpayers billions of dollars, as investor fears over rising inflation add to the US government’s debt burden, the Financial Times reported.
• US President Donald Trump told several Arab and Muslim leaders that he expects them to establish formal relations with Israel in exchange for a ceasefire deal with Iran to end the war, according to American officials.

May 26: Leader urges Muslim unity as Iran reports US truce violations and downs MQ-9  --In his Hajj message on Tuesday, Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei called on Muslim nations to deepen cooperation in shaping a new regional and global order, declaring the end of the American era.Meanwhile, Iran strongly condemned new ceasefire violations by the United States, as the country's armed forces warned of heavier retaliation following fresh American strikes near Bandar Abbas and the downing of a US MQ-9 drone by the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps' (IRGC) air defense systems.Separately, Iranian officials outlined the required steps for any agreement to end the US-led war of aggression against the Islamic Republic, even as Israeli attacks continued in southern Lebanon on Tuesday.  Key developments on day 88 of the war, the forty-eighth day of the ceasefire:

• In his Hajj message, Leader of the Islamic Revolution urged Muslim countries to deepen cooperation and shape a new regional and global order away from American dominance that has now ended.
• President Masoud Pezeshkian called for greater unity and cooperation among Muslim countries, saying solidarity across the Islamic world is essential to confronting threats and crises in West Asia.
• Brigadier General Abolfazl Shekarchi, a senior spokesperson for the country's armed forces, warned of “heavier and more severe” counterattacks in the event of a new aggression by the United States and the Israeli regime, saying the country has renewed its target bank and is ready for war
• Iran's foreign ministry condemned in the strongest terms "flagrant and unjustified" ceasefire violations by the United States in the Strait of Hormuz. The foreign ministry warned that Washington's true behaviour has been exposed once again and that no act of aggression will go unanswered.
• US forces launched unprovoked strikes on sites in southern Iran late on Monday, targeting areas near the strategic port city of Bandar Abbas, according to reports from American media outlets that even the aggressors themselves were forced to acknowledge.
• The IRGC said its air defense units intercepted and shot down a US MQ-9 Reaper drone over the Persian Gulf, warning that any violation of the ceasefire by the United States will be met with a severe response.
• According to a statement released by the IRGC Navy Public Relations Department on Tuesday, 25 ships, including oil tankers, container ships and other commercial vessels, successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz during the past 24 hours after obtaining permission and receiving comprehensive security coordination and protection from the IRGC Navy.
• Brigadier General Seyed Majid Ibn Reza, Iran’s acting Defence Minister, said the country made breakthroughs in air defence technology during the joint US-Israeli war of aggression against Iran, enabling its armed forces to target more than 200 enemy aircraft.
• Chairman of Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee Ebrahim Azizi said the United States must take five necessary confidence-building steps before it can reach any agreement with Iran, emphasising that there will be no deal without such measures.
• The steps include an end to the war on all fronts, particularly in Lebanon, with guarantees that the war will not be repeated; the lifting of the naval blockade; acceptance of Iranian arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz; the suspension of oil sanctions; and the release of Iran’s blocked assets.
• A new report stated the issue of Iran's frozen assets remains a key sticking point in the talks between Tehran and Washington, and that negotiations cannot proceed without the release of these funds. 
• A ringleader of a Mossad spy network convicted of collaborating with the Israeli intelligence service and carrying out multiple sabotage and terrorist operations inside and outside the country was executed, the Iranian judiciary announced.
• Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) chief Aleksandr Bortnikov warned that Western intelligence agencies are planning to use Daesh-affiliated Takfiri militants in Syria as a proxy force against Iran.
• The Israeli occupation military expanded its attacks in southern Lebanon, stepping up air and ground operations across the region.
• At least 17 civilians were killed in a series of Israeli artillery and aerial strikes against multiple locations in southern Lebanon, as the regime’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, ordered the military to intensify offensives against the Arab country.
• Two Israeli cabinet ministers, Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, openly called for cutting electricity supplies to Lebanon, seizing the Zahrani River, and demolishing dozens of buildings in Beirut, in a brazen display of the illegal entity’s inherent aggression and desperation.
• The Lebanese Islamic resistance movement Hezbollah fighters destroyed two Israeli army Merkava tanks and struck multiple enemy positions and troop gatherings in southern Lebanon in a series of military operations.
• Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif asserted opposition to his country's normalising relations with the Israeli regime after US President Donald Trump called on regional states to enter rapprochement deals with Tel Aviv.

'Weeks Inside Highly Fortified Bunkers': Report Details Painfully Slow Communication Within Iran's Leadership - According to a Sunday CBS News report citing US officials, Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is still in hiding in a secret location with extremely limited communication to the outside world. Driven underground by a pervasive fear within Tehran's remaining leadership structure following relentless US and Israeli military strikes, the Supreme Leader is effectively isolated. This information is nothing 'new' - but even as talks with the US are now little by little reportedly proceeding - and as a ceasefire has been extended by weeks - the Ayatollah is clearly not taking any chances. The CIA and Mossad have openly acknowledged that are actively looking for his hideout. But the report seeks to provide an explanation as to why Tehran's response to any specific updated draft peace deal often takes several days. CBS detailed how the isolation is to keep Western intelligence from mapping his coordinates, which involves only being reached via a slow, archaic network of physical couriers designed to conceal his location. The report further alleges that these heightened security measures have significantly disrupted communication lines within Iran's government, complicating active negotiations with the Trump administration and at times dragging responses to US peace proposals to a grinding halt. But this is also to a large degree by design, to allow the different military units autonomy of command in the instance for more 'decapitation strikes' targeting governing centers in Tehran. The end result, says CBS, is that "When the U.S. sends proposed details, the difficulty in reaching the supreme leader means there can be a long delay before the U.S. receives a response, two of the officials said." Yet, it wasn't long ago that White House officials and mainstream pundits were insisting that the Ayatollah is not actually in charge of the country. But now assumptions have shifted back, apparently. The report claims further:  At this point, most Iranian leaders don't see daylight, spending weeks inside highly fortified bunkers and avoiding speaking to each other unless absolutely necessary, the sources said. "Watching them try to figure out how to talk to each other is almost like watching a sitcom. They are completely exasperated," one official said. The most cautious measures are being taken by the supreme leader. By design, even officials at the highest levels of the Iranian government don't know where he is and have no way to contact him directly. One official followed with: "This is why you see people saying things like, 'The supreme leader has agreed to the framework,' or 'We're waiting to hear back on the final deal points.' Every piece of information he receives is dated and there's a lot of latency to his responses," one official said.

Hormuz Transit Charges Yield First Revenue for Iran: MP - Economy news - (Tasnim) – A senior lawmaker said Iran has received its first revenue from fees collected on foreign vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, which has been deposited into the Central Bank of Iran. Deputy Speaker of the Iranian Parliament Hamidreza Hajibabaei announced during an event in Lorestan Province that the first revenue generated from transit tolls in the Strait of Hormuz has been transferred to the account of the Central Bank of Iran. He stated that the Iranian nation expects that the Strait of Hormuz belongs to Iran and that all ships passing through this route must pay the toll to Iran in the national currency, the Iranian rial. Referring to the passage of 20 percent of the world’s oil and 35 percent of gas through the Strait of Hormuz, the MP noted that control over the waterway means Iran plays a significant role in the international economy. Hajibabaei described dominance over the Strait of Hormuz as a major achievement of the resistance, saying the United States has pushed its vessels back by up to 200 kilometers out of fear. He added that two violating vessels have so far been seized by Iran and that the number could increase if necessary. The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Navy announced on Wednesday that it has intercepted and transferred two violating vessels to Iranian territorial waters in the Strait of Hormuz as part of its ongoing maritime security operations.] The vessels were identified as the “MSC-FRANCESCA,” reportedly linked to the Zionist regime, and the “EPAMINODES,” both of which were operating without authorization, repeatedly violating regulations, and manipulating navigation aid systems in a way that endangered maritime safety.

At Least 31 Killed, 40 Wounded in Israeli Attacks on Southern Lebanon -  As Israeli forces launch new ground offensives further northern into southern Lebanon, the IDF has also issued a flurry of evacuation notices in the already occupied southern areas, and the ensuing airstrikes against those areas left at least 31 killed and 40 others wounded, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry. The largest of the strikes was in the area of Burj al-Shamali, near the city of Tyre. Israeli strikes there killed at least 14 people, including three women and four children. Additional strikes were reported in Kawthariyat al-Riz, Habbush and Maarakeh. The hospital in Nabatieh city was also reportedly targeted in the course of the strikes. Significant damage was reported to the hospital though no casualties have been reported in that particular strike yet. Burj al-Shamali was one of the last three towns to have an evacuation order issued on them. Over the course of Tuesday Israel issued evacuation orders for 50 distinct municipalities in southern Lebanon. More than 120 airstrikes were reported against southern Lebanon over the course of Tuesday. The strikes were mostly in the southern part of southern Lebanon, while the ground clashes were north of the Litani River.Hezbollah reported substantial fighting in the area of Zawtar al-Sharqiyah, which overlooks Nabatieh, and was one of the major targets of Israel’s latest offensive beyond the Yellow Line zone. Hezbollah also reported fighting near Yohmor al-Shaqif. srael made the Litani River the main boundary for their offensive when they first invaded Lebanon in March, though the Yellow Line extended beyond the river and the offensive has gone beyond the Yellow Line zone further still. Israel destroyed every bridge spanning the Litani River earlier in the war, and has repeatedly issued evacuation orders for areas south of the river, expecting locals to flee northward to uncertain futures.An estimated 1.2 million Lebanese, roughly 25% of the total population, have been displaced by the conflict. Many people have simply found themselves unable to flee, and are living under an active occupation in the ever-expanding southern zone of operation.

Israel has reportedly bombed the Qaraoun Dam in Lebanon -Israel has reportedly bombed the Qaraoun Dam in Lebanon’s Beqaa Valley — one of the country’s most important water reservoirs, serving civilians across nearby towns and villages. This is not just another strike on a map. Water infrastructure is the lifeline of ordinary people. It supports homes, farms, hospitals, schools, and entire communities that depend on it for survival. When a key civilian water source is targeted, the consequences go far beyond the immediate blast. It threatens drinking water, agriculture, sanitation, and public health for thousands of people. Critics say this cannot be brushed aside as a normal battlefield operation. A dam serving civilian populations is not a military front line — it is critical infrastructure. If these reports are accurate, this attack represents a dangerous escalation and a severe assault on civilian life. War should never turn water into a weapon.

New Israeli Bombings Kill at Least 17 Across Southern Lebanon - --Israel extended its evacuation order in the city of Tyre to include effectively the whole south of Lebanon, declaring the entire region an active combat zone, despite a ceasefire nominally having been in place in Lebanon for well over a month now.That ceasefire has consistently failed to cease Israeli attacks on Lebanon, and even as hope springs eternal that the US and Iran will work out a deal, Lebanese citizens areincreasingly resigned to a long-term Israeli invasion and occupation.   Israel has been expanding the war northward in recent days, with ground troops crossing the Litani River, and IDF forces once again attacking the capital city of Beirut, claiming they were trying to kill an Iranian who was there. At least 17 people were killed nationwide in Israeli attacks and scores of others were wounded. At least five women and three children are among the slain according to various reports on the identities of the people caught up in Israeli attacks.Six were reported killed in Adlun, including two children and their parents. Five others were killed in nearby Qiya and 21 others wounded, including five children. Further south along the road to Deir al-Zahwari, a strike on a vehicle killed a Lebanese soldier, the third such soldier slain in the last 72 hours.More attacks were reported in and around Tyre, the target of yesterday’s evacuation orders. Three were reported killed in a strike near al-Bas, and two Syrian citizens were slain on a motorcycle elsewhere around Tyre. With shelters overwhelmed and the highways leading out of Tyre packed, many feel they have no real option to flee the city as ordered, though a large number who are able have already left, so the city, among Lebanon’s largest, so there are at the very least fewer people left to be targeted by the IDF.

Netanyahu Says He Directed Israeli Military To Take More Territory in Gaza - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that he directed the Israeli military to take more territory in Gaza by increasing its control from 60% of the territory to 70%, a clear violation of the US-backed ceasefire deal signed in October 2025.“At this point, we are fully in control of 60% of the territory of the Gaza Strip… and my directive is to get to… 70%,” Netanyahu said in footage aired by Israel’s Channel 12, according to The Times of Israel.   Netanyahu made the remarks during a conference at the Ein Prat Leadership Academy in a Jewish settlement in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, and an audience member shouted out that Israel should take “100%” of Gaza. Netanyahu didn’t dispute the idea that taking over the entire Palestinian territory was the ultimate, and replied by saying, “we’re going in order… First 70%. We’ll start with that.” Netanyahu recently acknowledged that Israel now controls 60% of Gaza, more than the 53% of the territory it initially occupied after the signing of the October 2025 deal. The agreement states that the “IDF will not return to areas that have been withdrawn from, as long as Hamas fully implements the agreement,” and Hamas had fulfilled its side of the deal by releasing all living Israeli hostages and bodies that it had and working to recover other Israeli remains. Israeli officials have claimed Hamas is violating the deal by not disarming, but the agreement didn’t commit Hamas to giving up its weapons. The two sides agreed to a US proposal that called for the “demilitarization” of Gaza as a framework for negotiations, but the issue of disarmament was meant to be worked out in follow-up talks. Israel has also violated the deal by launching constant attacks in Gaza, which have killed more than 920 Palestinians since the agreement was signed. Recent days have been especially violent, with the Health Ministry in Gaza reporting on Thursday that at least 16 Palestinians were killed by IDF attacks over the previous 24-hour period.

Yemen reaffirms unwavering support for Palestine, Iran and Lebanon -- The leader of Yemen's Ansarullah has offered condolences on the martyrdom of a prominent commander of the Al-Qassam Brigades, reaffirming the Yemeni armed forces's unwavering support for the Palestinian people as well as Iran and Lebanon. Abdul-Malik al-Houthi expressed unwavering solidarity with the Palestinian people in a message on Sunday, following the assassination of Izz El-Din Al-Haddad, known as Abu Suhayb, by the Israeli regime in Gaza a day earlier. Houthi emphasized that the assassination is not an isolated incident, but rather part of a broader pattern of aggression against the Palestinian people. “This incident represents yet another example in the ongoing series of crimes committed by Zionist forces against the people of Gaza, including acts of murder, siege, and numerous offenses against the Palestinian populace in the West Bank, along with assaults on the al-Aqsa Mosque,” he said. The Ansarullah leader further reaffirmed Yemen’s steadfast position in supporting the people of Gaza alongside other oppressed Palestinians, as well as the people in Iran, Lebanon, and beyond. He also articulated a strong belief in an eventual triumph against the Israeli regime’s aggression, saying, “Our trust in God’s victory against this Zionist attack on the Islamic nation is very high.” “In the end, jihad and confrontation will be for the benefit of the believers; whether its time is long or short, God's victory is near,” Houthi stressed in his message, adding that “He is sufficient for us and the best advocate and helper.”

Malaysia ready to take Israel to ICJ over abduction, torture of Gaza flotilla activists: Official  -The Malaysian government is prepared to take Israel to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) over the abduction and torture of activists from the Gaza-bound Global Sumud humanitarian aid flotilla. Amirudin bin Shari, chief minister of the Malaysian state of Selangor, said on Monday that Kuala Lumpur will initiate proceedings as soon as lawyers complete the collection of information and supporting evidence. Over 400 international activists aboard the flotilla, which aimed to break Israel's naval blockade on Gaza to deliver aid, were attacked and abducted by Israeli forces last week in international waters. “We will not remain silent; we will not stop. While the legal team gathers all documentation on violations of international law, they (flotilla participants) were kidnapped more than once, they were tortured,” Amirudin said while speaking at the Global Sumud Flotilla 2.0 homecoming ceremony at Kuala Lumpur International Airport. “We will bring this to the international court, we will continue diplomatic pressure, and we will also travel across Malaysia,” he said. Bin Shari said the legal action follows acts of brutality, including abduction, torture, and sexual violence perpetrated by Israeli forces on the flotilla activists, particularly Malaysian participants. He added that the move will be followed by continued diplomatic pressure by the government to demand the "full liberation" of Gaza. Although the GSF 2.0 mission has concluded, Malaysia and Selangor’s commitment to the Palestinian cause will continue, Bin Shari emphasized. There are plans to bring international conferences related to Palestine to Malaysia in the future to strengthen advocacy efforts, he explained. He stated that the Global Sumud 3.0 will continue the struggle against the Israeli regime until the blockade on Gaza is lifted. Last Monday, the Israeli forces attacked the flotilla in international waters off the Cypriot coast. The Global Sumud Flotilla has confirmed that activists abducted from Gaza-bound vessels were subjected to sexual violence, physical assaults, and degrading treatment. In a statement, the flotilla said Israeli forces attacked the first of its boats "in broad daylight" in international waters while military vessels intercepted the fleet. The flotilla demanded "safe passage" for its humanitarian mission to the blockaded Palestinian territory, denouncing the Israeli regime for carrying out "illegal acts of piracy." This is not the first time the flotilla's mission to transfer direly-needed aid to the Gaza Strip has been hampered by the regime, as the coastal sliver continues to suffer from the catastrophic aftermath of a war of genocide by Tel Aviv that began in October 2023. The genocide has also been characterized by the weaponization of foodstuffs and other vital commodities as a result of the regime's further tightening of its 2007-present siege of Gaza.

Israel says it will sever all ties to UN's Guterres after inclusion in sexual violence report | Middle East Eye Israel has lashed out against United Nations secretary general Antonio Guterres for its inclusion as a perpetrator in this year's Conflict-Related Sexual Violence report, which was released to the public on Friday.Israel said it would no longer work with the UN chief.   The report adds Israel to a slate of countries whose soldiers and security forces have shown a pattern of using rape against captives or vulnerable groups. The secretary general warned that he would do so last year, when he put Israel "on notice" for not providing sufficient access to UN investigators.The UN has long documented Israeli sexual violence towards Palestinians, most particularly in its March 2025 report about the "systematic" use of such force in Gaza and the occupied West Bank, and then again in July when it highlighted a pattern of "genital beatings" and "burns".   After viewing an internal copy of the report earlier this week, Israel's mission to the UN said on Thursday that it would no longer work with Guterres and that its ambassador, Danny Danon, "set him straight" during a phone call. "WE’RE DONE WITH YOU! @antonioguterres," Danon wrote on X. "To put our soldiers, my son, my daughter, in the same list with the terrorists of Hamas, who committed the horrible crimes of October 7... There is a line, and we decided that enough is enough," he later told the Israeli news channel i24. In a statement, the Israeli foreign ministry called the report's findings "shameful and absurd". It said the UN is a "politicized and corrupt organization that has abandoned its founding principles and systematically targets Israel as its primary mission", and for that reason, "Israel has decided to sever all ties with the Secretary-General’s Office and will wait until a new UN Secretary-General is appointed". Guterres' term is due to end on 31 December.

China’s Export Prices Jump as Oil Shock Hits Factory Costs |- China’s export prices saw their biggest gain in three years in April as the oil price surge filtered through the goods manufactured in the world’s biggest exporter of goods. Chinese export prices jumped by 5% in April from a year earlier, the largest increase since April 2023, data by China’s General Administration of Customs showed. The increase, largely due to the oil price shock impacting manufacturing inputs and prices, comes after years of low export prices out of China. For years, Beijing has relied on cheaper goods to maintain its leadership in exports. China’s so-called export price Harmonized System 2-digit (HS2) index tracks monthly and yearly unit value changes for nearly 100 Chinese exported goods. This index showed that the exports of mineral oil, including petroleum, surged by 22% in April from a year earlier, while fertilizer export prices soared by 17%, as the Iran war upended global oil, gas, ammonia, and urea trade with tankers stuck at the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, the global AI frenzy and data center buildout have hiked the prices of electronics and semiconductors. The export price of China’s electronics and electric machinery jumped by more than 20% in April compared to the same month last year, according to the official Chinese data analyzed by Bloomberg. The price hikes were concentrated in just a handful of industries, mostly those linked with raw materials needing petroleum and gas, as well as electronics. Many other prices of China’s exports fell as domestic manufacturers competed for market share and refrained from passing the higher input prices onto finished goods. Yet, as the overall Chinese export prices jumped by the most in three years, consumer goods globally could accelerate their price increases, stoking inflation and depressing consumer demand in major developed markets, including in the United States.

Chinese Navy Pushes Dutch Frigate From Claimed Waters Via Electronic Warfare--- The Netherlands has become the latest Western nation to tangle with Beijing and exchange tense words after testing its sweeping claims to the South China Sea.A tense military encounter unfolded involving a Dutch warship, identified as the HNLMS De Ruyter, after it had entered waters near the disputed Paracel Islands. China's military reportedly used electronic warfare measures to force it out of the China-claimed waters in the incident on Wednesday.Chinese military spokesperson Zhai Shichen later charged that the Dutch ship violated "China’s territorial sovereignty and maritime and air security," while further alleging that the ship illicitly launched multiple helicopter sorties and entered Chinese airspace."The Dutch side’s actions…seriously undermine peace and stability in the South China Sea and could easily lead to misunderstanding and miscalculation," Zhai said."We firmly oppose such acts and solemnly demand that the Dutch side immediately cease its infringement and provocative actions. The Chinese military will maintain a high state of alert at all times and resolutely safeguard China's national sovereignty, security and regional peace and stability," the PLA statement added.However, the Netherlands has rejected this account, instead saying "the frigate has not been in territorial waters" and "operates in accordance with international law," according to the words Dutch navy spokesperson Marinka Hiraldo Vos-van Kooten.USNI News details the Dutch frigate's mission as follows:The Royal Netherlands Navy De Zeven Provinciën-class frigate is deployed to the Indo-Pacific for Amsterdam’s five-month-long Pacific Archer mission. The mission aims to promote freedom of navigation and foster ties with allies and partners. De Ruyter is also set to attend the Rim of Pacific naval drills around Hawaii later this summer.One week before the incident, De Ruyter moored in Manila for a port visit and activities with the Philippine Navy. The frigate’s captain told local media outlet Manila Bulletin that the ship’s previous interactions with a Chinese helicopter was “professional” and did not involve a territorial challenge.Following a brief but intense naval clash with Vietnam in the 1970s, Beijing seized control of the Paracel Islands. There remain overlapping claims among many nations in the region.

Russia Signs Military Cooperation Deal With Afghanistan’s Taliban Government -  Russia and Afghanistan’s Taliban government have signed a military agreement, in a move that signals deepening cooperation between the sides, experts said. The deal was signed on May 27 by Sergei Shoigu, secretary of Russia’s Security Council, and the Taliban’s defense minister, Mohammad Yaqub, on the sidelines of a security forum outside of Moscow, Russian media reported. Neither side has released the text of the military cooperation agreement or offered details about its scope, making it difficult to gauge whether the deal represents a substantive shift in military cooperation or a symbolic political gesture, experts said. Military-technical cooperation agreements can cover a wide range of activities, including arms sales, training, maintenance, logistics support, or technical assistance. Experts said Russia’s ability and willingness to deepen defense cooperation with the Taliban is constrained by Moscow’s ongoing war in Ukraine and the crippling impact of Western sanctions on the Kremlin’s coffers. “Russia is too economically stretched to provide free military aid to the Taliban government,” said Hameed Hakimi, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, a Washington-based think tank. “Meanwhile, the Taliban government does not have deep coffers to purchase such a quantity of military equipment, which would make it a consequential military trading partner in Moscow's eyes,” added Hakimi, who is also a senior research associate at ODI Global, a London-based think tank. Any cooperation is more likely to focus on maintenance, coordination, or training rather than major arms deliveries, experts said.Russia is the only country that has formally recognized the Taliban as Afghanistan’s legitimate government. It did so in 2025, four years after the group returned to power following the withdrawal of US and NATO forces from Afghanistan in 2021. Several countries -- including China, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan -- maintain diplomatic, trade, and economic ties with the Taliban without officially recognizing its government. Russia has hosted Taliban delegations in recent years and positioned itself as a key interlocutor on Afghan security issues. Moscow is particularly concerned about the threat posed to Russia and Central Asia, which it considers its strategic backyard, by militant groups such as Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K).

Ukraine Hits 300,000-Bpd Gazprom Neft Refinery in Overnight Drone Strike -- Ukraine targeted overnight the Yaroslavl oil refinery in Russia, escalating the drone attacks on Russian refining and oil exporting assets, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Friday.“Today, there was a report by Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi on the use of long-range drones against Russian oil refining and export assets,” Zelenskyy wrote on social media.“In particular, overnight, the Defense Forces of Ukraine operated against targets associated with the Yaroslavl oil refinery – about 700 kilometers from our territory,” the Ukrainian President said without specifying whether the refinery has been damaged.“We are bringing the war back home – to Russia – and that’s only fair,” Zelenskyy added.The attack on the Yaroslavl oil refinery, co-owned by Gazprom Neft, was the fourth on the facility in one month, as Ukraine looks to diminish Russia’s refining and export capabilities amid soaring international oil and fuel prices. A satellite image taken by a NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System satellite shows a heating anomaly at the refinery, which suggests that there may be a blaze at the site, Bloomberg reports.The attack on the 300,000-barrels-per-day Yaroslavl refinery was carried out hours after Ukrainian drones hit the Syzran oil refinery in Russia’s southwestern Samara region operated by Rosneft.Zelenskyy on Thursday posted footage of fire and smoke at a facility and captioned the post with “Another Ukrainian long-range sanction against Russian oil refining – and we are continuing this line of action.”Since international crude oil prices surged following the war in the Middle East, Russia has boosted its oil revenues as not only prices have jumped, but Russian oil was made desirable in India again, thanks to U.S. waivers for sales of Russia’s crude already loaded on tankers.Ukraine is intensifying attacks at Russian refineries and oil export ports as Kyiv looks to limit Russia’s oil exports and revenues.

Russia Launches Massive Drone and Missile Barrage on Kyiv After Ukrainian Strike Kills 21 at Luhansk College - --Russia on Sunday launched a massive drone and missile barrage against the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, an attack that came after Ukrainian drones hit a college in a Russian-controlled area of the Donbas region on Friday, massacring a group of students. Russia’s TASS news agency reported that the death toll in the Ukrainian attack on a college dormitory in Starobelsk in the Luhansk Oblast has risen to 21 and that another 42 people were injured. For its part, Ukraine denied responsibility and claimed that it targeted a Russian drone unit in the area, while Russian officials said there were no military targets at the college.After the attack, the Russian Foreign Ministry warned that those responsible for the attack would face “inevitable and severe punishment.” According to AFP, the Ukrainian air force said the Russian attack that targeted Kyiv on Sunday involved 600 drones and 90 missiles. The Russian Defense Ministry said that the attacks included strikes involving Russia’s advanced missiles, including its Oreshnik hypersonic missile. The ministry said the strikes were a ” response to the terrorist attacks by Ukraine on civilian targets in Russia.”Ukrainian officials said that two people were killed in Kyiv, 56 were wounded, and another two were killed in the surrounding region. Before the attack, the US embassy in Kyiv said that it had “received information concerning a potentially significant air attack that may occur at any time over the next 24 hours.”A group of journalists visited the site of the drone attack on the college on Sunday as part of a trip organized by the Russian Foreign Ministry. Yana ⁠Lantrova, Russia’s new commissioner for human rights, told journalists that the attack involved three waves of Ukrainian drones. “Sixteen UAVs in total. They waited for the children to run out. They fired directly at the children,” she said, according to Reuters.

Senior Russian MP Says Russia Will Begin Targeting Underground Bunkers Used by Ukrainian Leadership in Kyiv - -A senior member of Russia’s parliament on Tuesday said that Russia is planning to escalate its attacks on Kyiv by targeting underground facilities and bunkers used by Ukrainian military commanders and leadership.Russia has informed the US and its European allies to evacuate their personnel from the Ukrainian capital as Moscow is planning major strikes that it says are a response to the May 22 Ukrainian drone attack that hit a college in Starobelsk in the Luhansk Oblast, killing 21 people, and other strikes on civilians.According to RT, Andrey Kartapolov, the head of the Russian State Duma’s Defense Committee, said that Russia’s “patience has run out” and that it will target “underground fortified [military] command and control centers” and bunkers used by Ukrainian security services and leadership.The Russian Foreign Ministry has said targets will include the facilities used to develop drones and “decision-making centers” in Kyiv. Kartapolov said that “decision-making centers” do not include the Ukrainian parliament or Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s office because Ukrainian MPs don’t control the military and because the Ukrainian leader is rarely in his office.Writing in Responsible Statecraft, Anatol Lieven, director of the Eurasia Program at the Quincy Institute, said that Russia will likely use its Oreshnik hypersonic missiles to target “the underground headquarters in Kyiv where US and European officers have been helping the Ukrainian armed forces to target Russia with missiles and drones.”Lieven noted that Russia has so far refrained from targeting the headquarters despite Ukraine’s frequent attacks on Russian command centers due to concerns that Russia would likely kill US and other NATO soldiers and intelligence officers, which could lead to a major escalation from the West.Russia has also likely refrained from taking the step as it has been involved in negotiations with the Trump administration to potentially end the war, but those talks appear to have hit a dead end, as US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said last week that there are “no such talks occurring at this time.”

NATO Warns Russia's Hybrid War Is Targeting Europe's Energy Grid  While many may be focusing on the transfer of nuclear weapons from Russia to Belarus on NATO’s northeastern Baltic States border, the bloc's security apparatus is at least as concerned about imminent attacks on the region's energy infrastructure, a senior source who works very closely with the European Union's (E.U.'s) energy security complex exclusively told OilPrice.com last week.“Russia’s effectively been at war with the West since February 2007 when [Russian President Vladimir] Putin condemned NATO’s expansion to the East, which was followed by a huge cyber-attack against Estonia,” he said. “Then we had the beginning of the land pushback, with Russia’s war on Georgia in 2008, where we [the West] did nothing to dissuade him from further actions Westwards, then the first invasion of Ukraine and annexation on Crimea in 2014, where we did nothing much again [as analysed in full in my latest book on the new global oil market order], and then the second invasion of Ukraine in 2022,” he added. “We’re into the final phase now, in which we’re making a stand, and Russia’s testing how resolved we are,” he underlined. So, what happens next in terms of Europe’s crucial energy infrastructure? “We expect hybrid attacks of the sort we’ve seen in recent years, and more direct physical ones, which have also increased in recent months, primarily against gas infrastructure, electricity cables, offshore networks, and control systems,” said the source. “The full array of these measures has already been used by Russia in Ukraine, so they’re ready to roll out whenever Putin wants -- it’s just a question of how far he’s willing to push the boundaries before he thinks we’ll react with true deterrent force,” he added. As also highlighted by the E.U. Institute for Security Studies, there have been several incidents since Russia’s full-blown invasion of Ukraine in 2022 in which undersea energy cables were severed by Russian-affiliated vessels. For example, in December 2024, Russian shadow fleet vessel Eagle S was apprehended by Finnish authorities after severing EstLink 2, a critical electricity interconnector linking Finland and Estonia. The ship had military-grade detection hardware in its hull, indicating a direct, premeditated, and malicious attack on European energy infrastructure. Similarly, a Russian vessel, the Scanlark, was detained by authorities after being caught launching surveillance drones and carrying spying equipment near the Olkiluoto Nuclear Power Station in Finland. “Subsea electricity interconnectors and gas pipelines in the Baltic and North Seas are also highly vulnerable to the same style of attacks, with the same capabilities also available for the targeting of power grids to trigger cascading regional blackouts across the highly interconnected European electricity grids,” the E.U. source told OilPrice.com last week. Indeed, an attempted dual nature energy-telecommunications hit was tried by Russia within the last couple of months, as revealed by the British Ministry of Defence on 9 April. Three Russian submarines were mapping and surveying vital gas pipelines in the North Sea, and undersea electricity interconnectors vital to trading power with mainland Europe. “This is all part of Russia’s ongoing grey war with the West, focused on Europe right now, which aims to critically undermine us without crossing the boundary that triggers Article 5 and outright war between NATO and Russia,” the source underlined. The key reason why there has been a surge in the scale and scope of Russia’s grey war in recent weeks is that Putin thinks time is running out for his ‘Special Military Operation’ in Ukraine, according to security sources in Washington and London exclusively spoken to by OilPrice.com last week and exclusively confirmed by a very high-level Moscow-based source in the current Russian Administration. Part of Putin’s belief comes from the burn rate of Russian soldiers on the frontline, with only 70% of those killed now able to be replaced by new recruits. “This is the big problem, because it means that the [recruitment] net will have to be widened to areas that could cause political problems,” said the Moscow source last week. In this context, much of the burden of the war to date has been borne by Russia’s ethnic minorities and those from poor regions, for whom the relatively high military salaries and death benefits are life-changing money for them and their families, whether they live or die. So far, the more affluent, better-connected, and more highly educated ‘middle class’ Russians from the major metropolitan hubs -- specifically Moscow and St Petersburg -- have been largely insulated from the war. But, with Putin’s choice now being either an end to the war on Ukrainian terms or extending recruitment to the previously protected class, this could change, although both possibilities have been prepared for.On the one hand, Putin said on 9 May that the Ukraine war is ‘coming to an end’ -- the first time in over four years of fighting that he has used this specific phrasing. On the other hand, Russia rolled out a unified digital conscription registry last May, which sends draft notices electronically via state portals.The likelihood of major protests erupting if this system is used across Russia’s major metropolitan hubs may have been foreshadowed by the Kremlin’s drive to isolate the country’s internet, allowing it to suppress the kind of widespread dissent that fuelled the Arab Spring uprisings.There are three other factors in the ‘why now’ equation for Russia, according to the Washington, London, and E.U. sources, again confirmed by the very highly placed source in Moscow.

• The most immediate catalyst was the unblocking of the €90 billion E.U. package for Ukraine, following the removal from power of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who acted as Putin’s de facto blocking vote on E.U. legislation the Russian premier did not want. Two-thirds of this money is strictly earmarked for spending by Ukraine on hard defence assets rather than just keeping the government afloat. Even without this, Ukraine has dramatically expanded its capabilities of hitting key military and civilian infrastructure targets deep inside Russia for the first time, with repeated hits on key sites connected to its ability to monetise its oil and gas resources by exports. Last year, according to industry figures, Russian oil firms suffered RUB1 trillion roubles (US$12.9 billion) in combined losses across 120 recorded energy facility strikes. But since January alone this year, Russia has already lost over US$7 billion in oil revenue, driven by the prolonged downtime of facilities and steep export reductions from disrupted Baltic Sea shipping hubs like Ust-Luga and Primorsk. Worse still for Putin is that his long-running project to keep U.S. President Donald Trump on its side has backfired as, no longer under the shackles of U.S. arms supply deals, Ukraine is no able to keep hitting any target it wants inside Russia up to 1,200 miles, putting over 70% of the Russian population within Ukraine’s crosshairs. Putin knows that this is only going to get worse, as Ukraine continues to develop the range and accuracy of its own missiles and drones with the funding from the new €90bn package.
• The second reason for Russia stepping up its pressure on the West is that Europe is moving ahead with new sanctions designed to end all imports of Russian gas and oil and cut off Moscow’s access to the financing that supports them. Liquefied natural gas imports will end by the end of this year, natural gas by 30 September next year, and crude oil and petroleum products by the end of next year. To this end, its latest (20th) Sanctions Package, adopted on 23 April, was structured specifically to cut off Russia's financial loopholes and squeeze what remains of its energy revenue. It focuses on eliminating its Shadow Fleet of vessels still transporting Russian oil and gas covertly around the world, and on ending crypto escape routes that allow Russia to use digital assets to circumvent traditional Western banking blocks.
• And the final reason, again an unintended by-product of Putin’s misjudgement in attempting to use Trump for his maximum benefit to Russia, is that because of Europe’s uncertainty now over the U.S. commitment to NATO’s Article 5, it is rearming at pace, at scale, and in size. Even before this current round of military build-up, the chance of Russia defeating a united European military force -- without the U.S. -- was minimal, which is why Moscow has continued to fight a grey war under the boundary that would trigger outright conflict. But European NATO’s membership has expanded since the Ukraine invasion, and commitments to new spending and realised new expenditure have increased dramatically.

In the end, Europe’s energy grid is no longer just infrastructure — it is the front line.And Russia’s grey war will keep pressing against it until Moscow is convinced. European officials fear Russia’s “grey war” is entering a more dangerous phase, with gas pipelines, electricity interconnectors, offshore networks, and subsea infrastructure increasingly vulnerable to sabotage and cyberattacks. The West is finally prepared to push back in a way that convinces Putin that he must go no further.

UK Targets Kremlin-Linked Crypto Network In Latest Sanctions Round -  The United Kingdom has unveiled a fresh package of sanctions against Russian financial structures that use crypto and offshore payment routes to sidestep restrictions imposed after the invasion of Ukraine.  The measures focus on the Kremlin-backed A7 network, a ruble-based settlement system, and a cluster of exchanges and firms that route payments through Kyrgyzstan and Georgia.Announced by Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper, the package covers 18 new designations that target what London describes as the backbone of Russia’s illicit finance channels. Officials say the list includes a Kyrgyz bank suspected of handling A7 flows, a major global cryptocurrency exchange that has sent more than 1.5 billion dollars to entities close to the Kremlin, and three Georgian companies that run Russia-focused trading platforms.The A7 network has emerged as a central hub in Russia’s attempts to blunt the impact of Western sanctions on its war economy. Investigations by independent researchers describe A7 as a cross-border settlement platform that uses a ruble-backed token, branded A7A5, and links to Promsvyazbank, a state lender that supports the Russian defense sector.   According to the UK government, A7 claims to have moved more than 90 billion dollars during the past year, a sum that officials say approaches half of Russia’s annual military spending.  Separate journalistic probes have found that A7-connected wallets and entities handle a significant share of cross-border transfers for sanctioned oligarchs and state-linked businesses. The crackdown lands at a moment when Russia’s own forecasts show a weaker outlook for growth under sanctions pressure. This month the Economy Ministry cut its 2026 growth projection to 0.4 percent from 1.3 percent and reduced the estimate for 2027 from 2.8 percent to 1.4 percent, an admission that extended war spending and trade limits weigh on expansion. Western authorities and crypto analytics firms have flagged crypto as a key tool in Russia’s effort to replace severed bank links. Research into related platforms such as A7A5 and exchanges that serve Russian users has traced billions of dollars in stablecoin and token flows that bypass traditional banking checks, much of it through venues in Central Asia and the Caucasus.Cooper framed the new sanctions as part of a broader drive to hit the financial lifelines of Moscow’s war machine and close off safe havens for enablers of the invasion. She said the UK would keep working with allies to expose, disrupt and dismantle the structures that move money and goods for Russian forces.Since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022, Britain has sanctioned more than 3,300 individuals, companies and vessels linked to the Kremlin, from banks and energy giants to defense suppliers.The government estimates that international sanctions have stripped more than 450 billion dollars from Russia’s economy, a loss equal to an estimated two years of funding for its war against Ukraine.

EU Packaging Rules Create Another Bureaucratic Monster  - Regulation follows regulation. On August 12, the so-called EU Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR) will enter into force, reorganizing the recycling framework for packaging across Europe. Adopted last year, the regulation becomes binding for all EU member states and companies on August 12 and, as an EU regulation, does not require transposition into national law. The PPWR will replace the current patchwork of national packaging recycling laws with a unified framework for the EU single market. Until then, Germany’s existing Packaging Act (VerpackG) remains in effect. EU’s latest effort, the Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR), requires minimizing packaging  volume while maintaining functionality Brussels always tells the same story: regulation is supposed to strengthen the European single market and harmonize economic and environmental objectives. A beautiful narrative — especially for those who stand to profit from it. Similar dynamics have already emerged in other sectors, such as carbon emissions trading. In the end, compliance costs for affected businesses rise, the bureaucratic apparatus expands through new control and sanctioning mechanisms, and the overall economy loses competitiveness.According to the European Commission, the goal of the regulatory push is to ensure that by 2030 only recyclable packaging materials circulate within the EU economy. The regulation aims to reduce packaging waste, increase corporate recycling quotas, and firmly embed the circular economy into a binding legal framework. The PPWR is one of the building blocks of the Green Deal, which seeks to lead the EU economy toward a carbon-neutral future through an increasingly detailed and expansive regulatory architecture covering national recycling efforts as well as sector-specific initiatives.Brussels’ regulatory activism offers repeated insights into the logic of bureaucratic systems. Such systems develop a kind of life of their own and an inherent drive to acquire ever more competencies and powers — an evolutionary struggle for institutional survival that gradually eliminates any meaningful feedback loop with the economic system bureaucracy claims to regulate. This recurring process has consequences: increasingly detached from business realities, ideologically driven compliance pressure continues to mount across affected sectors. As a result, adaptation, documentation, and implementation costs require businesses to devote ever more resources simply to satisfy regulatory demands.The biggest burden imposed by the new regulation will fall on companies selling goods across borders without maintaining their own local branch offices in destination countries. The PPWR forces such firms to hire local authorized representatives or specialized service providers to manage registration, documentation, and communication with local authorities in detail in order to oversee the packaging recycling process. The regulation is structured in such a way that there is practically no possibility of integrating these requirements into normal business operations without significant bureaucracy and expense.The EU is thereby creating yet another artificial compliance market. It generates business opportunities for consultants and service providers that would likely not survive in a truly free market. This development is already familiar from the ever-expanding climate regulation architecture. And, as is typical with excessive bureaucracy, large corporations with their own branch networks naturally enjoy major cost advantages over smaller niche businesses, which must now spend substantial time, money, and personnel building compliance networks of their own. None of this resembles an integrated European single market anymore. The economy increasingly serves as a playground for the ideological fantasies of an ever-growing class of officials.What we are witnessing here is a fundamental ideological, administrative, and political problem. The packaging regulation fits into the broader structure of intrusive, hyper-detailed, and sanction-heavy regulation from an authority that no longer recognizes the signs of the times — namely the economic crisis that its own policies have helped fuel. Germany’s annual bureaucratic burden is estimated by the ifo Institute at roughly €146 billion in direct and indirect costs — an absolute disaster for the country as a business location. Moreover, this policy of micromanagement stifles innovation in materials, logistics, and recycling technologies, and will ultimately deliver worse outcomes at far higher cost than a free market would.