week ending Oct 24

Fed expected to hold rates steady days ahead of US midterms - The US Federal Reserve appears set to hold interest rates steady at its meeting next week, analysts say, despite stubbornly high inflation and with markets pricing in at least one rate hike before year-end. The central bank's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet over two days, announcing its decision at 2:00 pm local time (18:00 GMT) on Wednesday. The Fed has missed its long-term two-percent target for inflation for more than five years, and at its last meeting in September the FOMC voted to raise the key federal funds rate for the first time in three years, lifting the target range to 3.75 percent to 4.0 percent. The Fed's meeting comes days ahead of key midterm elections in the United States on November 3, with the Democratic Party seeking to wrest control of both houses of Congress from US President Donald Trump's Republicans. Trump frequently berated and criticized Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's predecessor Jerome Powell over interest rates -- which he deems to be too high -- but has so far refrained from targeting the man he appointed to replace him over the issue. The Fed's preferred gauge for inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, hit a pandemic-era peak of 7.2 percent in 2022, before a series of interest-rate hikes tamed it to around 2.2 percent by late 2024. Trump's economic policies -- including his upending of the global trade order using tariffs and his war on Iran -- fuelled it once more, and it hit a three-year high of 3.9 percent in May. Since the United States and Israel attacked Iran in late February, global energy prices have skyrocketed, with Tehran's retaliatory actions sharply curtailing oil and gas supplies through the Gulf. Higher energy prices have begun to cascade through into other goods and services, fuelling inflation in the United States, with prices a key issue for voters as they head to the polls. Loretta Mester, former regional head of the Cleveland Fed, told AFP that the timing of the meeting just days ahead of the election would not be a factor for policymakers. "The Fed doesn't take into account any kind of political issues in that FOMC room," she said. "It really is based on the economics." Mester argued that the fundamentals call for continuing to raise interest rates. "The data that's come in continue to show a stable labor market and continue to show inflation above target," she said, adding that there was no evidence that it was on a path downwards towards the target. "The economics would suggest then you need to continue raising rates." Still, she thought that most policymakers seemed keen to avoid moving too quickly, and may hold rates at this meeting, waiting to tighten the screws until the following meeting in early December. Wendy Edelberg, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, believes central bankers would rather not put themselves in the middle of the political debate ahead of the midterms. "It's unhelpful for everyone if the Fed gets wrapped up in all the political discourse right before an election," she told AFP. Edelberg said that "there wouldn't be huge economic implications" if policymakers raised rates in December as opposed to October. She saw such a decision less as a "nod to Trump" -- who has aggressively demanded lower rates to spur economic activity -- and more a way to avoid being the potential target of political barbs.

Araghchi Says Iran's Proposal To Open Strait of Hormuz Within Seven Days Is Still on the Table - Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Sunday that Iran’s proposal to the US to open the Strait of Hormuz within seven days was still on the table, comments that come as Iran has ramped up its attacks on shipping in the waterway.“Our situation is clear and based on ⁠the seven-days proposal presented to the US,” Araghchi said while in Baghdad for a meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation. “They shared comments which ​we are reviewing, but our proposal is still on the table​, and if there is any honesty on the US part, which there isn’t, the way to reopening the Strait of Hormuz is obvious,” Araghchi added. Mohsen Rezaei, the head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said last week that the latest US response to Iran’s proposal was “inadequate,” though he said that Washington had accepted at least some of Tehran’s conditions.Iran proposed a deal that would require the US to end its blockade of Iranian ports, waive some sanctions, and release some of Iran’s frozen funds in exchange for Iran fully opening the Strait of Hormuz on the sixth day. On the seventh day, the two sides would begin negotiations on a nuclear deal.Iran’s proposal also calls for a ceasefire on all fronts, though it’s unclear if Tehran is really asking for one beyond the US-Iran war and Israel’s war in southern Lebanon. The conditions are essentially what the US agreed to under the Memorandum of Understanding that was signed back in June but quickly fell apart.Iran dramatically escalated attacks on commercial shipping in or near the Strait of Hormuz in recent weeks, with daily attacks being reported by the UK Maritime Trade Operations, though the organization has acknowledged that most vessels that come under attack report it, making it difficult to establish the true number of incidents.While negotiations between the US and Iran still appear to be underway in some form, all signs point to further escalation, likely after the October 27 Israeli Knesset elections and November 3 US midterm elections, though according to reporting from Axios, President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have discussed the possibility of launching a major attack on Iran before both elections.Trump gave Netanyahu a strong endorsement on Sunday, suggesting he would like an Israel run by Netanyahu to help “finish the job” against Iran, something Araghchi responded to in a post on X.  “Last time you wanted to ‘finish the job,’ Iran emerged even stronger. Want to try your luck again? Be our guest. But be careful; we have unfinished jobs too,” he wrote. “Netanyahu is driving America into another war to stay out of jail, whatever the consequences for Israel—let alone POTUS.”

Iran urges US to accept proposal to reopen Strait of Hormuz (Reuters) - Iran's offer to the United States to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days is still on ​the table, Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi told Iranian media ‌outlets on Sunday. Iran presented its proposal in mid-September after an interim ceasefire collapsed. Tehran later acknowledged receiving a US response but Iran’s security chief said last week negotiations ​have stalled because Washington failed to address all seven conditions for ​reopening the strait. "Our situation is clear and based on ⁠the seven-days proposal presented to the US. They shared comments which ​we are reviewing, but our proposal is still on the table ​and if there is any honesty on the US part, which there isn't, the way to reopening the Strait of Hormuz is obvious," Araqchi said while in ​Baghdad for a meeting of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation. Iran's ​conditions include, among other demands, the lifting of the US blockade on its ports, ‌the ⁠lifting of US sanctions on its oil exports as well as ending hostilities on all regional fronts. If Washington accepts Tehran's conditions, the strait could reopen within six days, with talks resuming the following day, ​Araqchi said. A central ​point of ⁠disagreement has been Washington’s insistence on addressing Iran's nuclear programme from the outset. US Vice President JD Vance said ​earlier this month that Iran must make a "meaningful" reduction ​in ⁠its uranium enrichment capacity to satisfy US demands and end the countries' eight-month war. Tehran says negotiations should initially focus on reopening the Strait of ⁠Hormuz, ​which before the war carried about a ​fifth of the global trade in oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG), and restoring security ​in the waterway.

No negotiations until US takes trust-building steps: Iran’s security chief - The secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) asserts that “there will be no negotiations” with the United States until Washington takes steps to build trust. Major General Mohsen Rezaei made the remarks in a statement on his official account on X on Tuesday, adding, “That process must begin with the full fulfillment of all Iran’s conditions.” Last month, the top security official said Tehran had conveyed seven conditions to Washington through Qatari mediators and was awaiting US President Donald Trump’s response. “Our conditions are an end to the war on all fronts, the release of our frozen funds, and an end to the naval blockade,” he added at the time. Rezaei later noted that he had found Washington’s response to be “insufficient.” Also on Tuesday, the official underlined during remarks with Pakistan’s visiting Chief of Army Staff Asim Munir in Tehran that the Iranian people and officials were united in the view that no negotiations would take place in the absence of trust-building measures on the part of Washington. Rezaei’s post on X, meanwhile, underscored that “not a single gram of enriched uranium will be removed from Iran,” categorically ruling out a demand that has been aired repeatedly by various American officials. Meeting with Munir, he likewise said, “All enriched nuclear material will remain in Iran, and not a single particle will leave the country.” “This material is a great asset and national wealth for the Iranian people to use domestically.” Iran has also identified fulfillment of its conditions as a precursor to reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which the Islamic Republic has closed in retaliation for unprovoked US-Israeli aggression and persisting American violations.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard cites 7 internet cables under Strait of Hormuz, warns of ‘new targets’ -  Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned Monday that it would unveil new targets and weapons, drawing attention to major undersea internet cables crossing the Strait of Hormuz amid tensions with the United States. “Seven major internet cables run beneath the Strait of Hormuz,” said IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebbi, claiming that all internet and commercial data traffic passed through them. “We just want them to know that new targets will be unveiled. New weapons will be unveiled,” he added. Mohebbi made the remarks during a ceremony at Tehran’s Sacred Defense Museum, the Iranian state broadcaster IRIB reported. He also vowed to drive what he called the remnants of US power out of the region. Earlier this month, Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, told Iranian state broadcaster Press TV that Tehran could target undersea internet cables, data centers and artificial intelligence facilities linked to the US if another war broke out. “We have not yet included these assets among our targets,” Rezaei said, warning that such infrastructure could be destroyed in a renewed conflict. The US and Israel launched a war against Iran on Feb. 28. Tehran responded with missile and drone attacks across the region and effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, while Washington later imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports. The US and Iran subsequently signed a memorandum of understanding in June concerning freedom of navigation in the strait, but implementation stalled over disagreements related to security in the strategic waterway.

IRGC: 54th U.S. MQ-9 Drone Destroyed Over Strait of Hormuz - WANA (Oct 20) – Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said its Aerospace Force air defense systems intercepted and destroyed the 54th U.S. MQ-9 drone over the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday. According to an IRGC statement, the drone was targeted by an advanced air defense system operated by the IRGC Aerospace Force under the control of Iran’s integrated air defense network. The IRGC said the latest incident brought the total number of U.S. MQ-9 drones destroyed in the conflict to 54.

Iranian president says Washington cannot expect dialogue with Tehran while issuing threats - Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Wednesday that the US cannot expect dialogue with Iran while at the same time issuing threats. Washington “must recognize the rights of our nation and stop their bullying and aggression, then we can sit together and talk,” Pezeshkian said in remarks carried by the state-run IRNA news agency. “You cannot block all the roads and threaten and at the same time want to talk,” he added. Accusing the US of “reneging” on its commitments, the Iranian president said: “I believe that one should not enter into a pact lightly, but once a pact is made, one must remain committed to it until the end – even if it proves disadvantageous.” Tensions in the Middle East have remained high since the US and Israel launched a war against Iran on Feb. 28. Tehran responded with missile and drone attacks across the region and effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, while Washington later imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports. The US and Iran subsequently signed a memorandum of understanding in June concerning freedom of navigation in the strait, but implementation stalled over disagreements related to security in the strategic waterway.

Nuclear issue just a pretext; US opposes Iran’s Islamic establishment, resistance: FM - Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says the United States’ dispute with Iran lies in Washington’s opposition to Iran’s Islamic establishment and its refusal to accept American dominance, describing the nuclear issue as just a pretext. “In my view, what they oppose and refuse to accept is the thinking underpinning Iran’s [Islamic] establishment and the Iranian mindset,” the top diplomat said during an extended exclusive interview with Iraqi Media Network on Tuesday. He added that Washington rejected an outlook centered on resisting American domination and refusing to submit to US power. “Therefore, as you said, the nuclear issue is nothing more than a pretext,” Araghchi said. “Bear in mind that we entered into three rounds of negotiations with the American side, and all three previous rounds ultimately led to war against us,” the foreign minister stated. The official was referring to the two rounds of unprovoked aggression that the United States and the Israeli regime launched against Iran respectively last June and from February 28 until April 7 this year, both of which took place amid negotiations between Tehran and Washington. He was also pointing to negotiations in June that led to realization of a Pakistan-mediated memorandum of understanding between the two sides, which was subsequently violated by Washington. “Therefore, there is no trust in the American approach,” Araghchi said. According to the top diplomat, Iran has, however, forwarded a Seven-Day Plan aimed at conditional reopening of the Strait of Hormuz that the Islamic Republic has closed in retaliation for the latest round of unprovoked American-Israeli aggression and persisting American violations. The official outlined Iran’s proposed sequence for ending the current impasse as the United States’ first fulfilling its commitments under the Islamabad memorandum, followed by an understanding on the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway’s reopening under agreed arrangements, and further negotiations towards a final agreement. The plan has been proposed in order to prevent diplomacy from collapsing altogether, he said, stating that diplomatic efforts would yield result “provided the other side honors the understandings reached.” Progress depends on Washington honoring its previous commitments and reaching an understanding over the Strait of Hormuz, Araghchi said. Asked whether the Islamic Republic might reconsider its policies and ideology in light of the economic pressure imposed by Washington, the foreign minister asserted that Iranians had accepted these costs to “preserve their dignity, independence, honor, and greatness.” Tehran’s immediate demand was that Washington implement the commitments contained in the Islamabad understanding, he said, adding that only after those commitments were honored, the parties could move on to other issues. The foreign minister noted that Tehran had also been working with Oman on designated maritime routes through the strait. Araghchi said the routes had been mapped and their geographical coordinates established, adding that they would need to be registered with the International Maritime Organization and submitted for its consideration. He presented the arrangements with Oman as groundwork for a potential future reopening. The foreign minister also rejected the suggestion that Iran’s actions in Hormuz should be viewed independently of the war, arguing that the current situation had resulted from American-Israeli aggression. Citing continued American violations and their repercussions, Araghchi said, “The whole world must understand that it is the American side, not Iran, that is blocking the way.” The official, meanwhile, underscored that, at the same time as being prepared for diplomacy, the Islamic Republic was preparing for the possibility of renewed unwarranted aggression. “I reiterate that we are just as prepared for diplomacy as we are for war.”

Uncertainty over US Decision-Maker Complicates Negotiations: Iranian Source - (Tasnim) – A senior Iranian security source said uncertainty over who has the authority to make final decisions in the US government is a major obstacle to negotiations, complicating mediation efforts and the exchange of messages. The senior security source, speaking to Tasnim about diplomatic visits and mediation efforts, said one of the main obstacles facing the negotiations is the intermediaries’ uncertainty over who on the US side has the necessary authority and competence to make final decisions. According to the source, it is not at all clear who within the US governing establishment holds effective and final decision-making power: JD Vance, Steve Witkoff, Marco Rubio or Jared Kushner. This ambiguity, coupled with political rivalries and internal divisions in the United States ahead of the elections, has seriously complicated the mediation process and the exchange of messages, contributing to the current situation.

US Air Sanctions Hit a Dead End as Foreign Airlines Resume Flights to Iran – The return of foreign airlines Iraqi Airways and SalamAir to Iran, alongside the continuation of flights to 19 international destinations from Imam Khomeini International Airport, has thwarted US efforts to restrict Iran’s air connectivity. About a month has passed since the United States imposed new sanctions on Iran’s aviation industry, introducing restrictions on some international routes. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had warned that companies and airlines cooperating with Iran would be cut off from access to the global financial system. The first setback for US aviation sanctions came with Iraqi Airways’ return to the Najaf–Tehran route. After a suspension of its flights, the Iraqi airline resumed services to Imam Khomeini International Airport on October 8. The flight marked the first international airline service to Iran following the Third Imposed War. According to the announced schedule, Iraqi Airways operates one daily flight in each direction between Tehran and Najaf. Oman’s SalamAir subsequently resumed direct Muscat–Tehran–Muscat flights after a suspension lasting several months. The airline’s flight landed at Imam Khomeini International Airport at 11:20 a.m. on October 18. Under the announced schedule, SalamAir will operate flights between Tehran and Muscat twice a week, on Sundays and Fridays. SalamAir’s return is particularly significant because Iran’s Civil Aviation Organization chief, Captain Abuzar Shiroudi, had previously said that flights between Iran and Oman continued to face difficulties and that diplomatic consultations were underway to resolve the restrictions. Under its latest sanctions, the United States sought to put pressure on Iran’s air connectivity network by targeting airlines and restricting foreign companies’ cooperation with the country. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had warned that companies and airlines working with Iran could lose access to the global financial system. However, the return of Iraqi Airways and SalamAir indicates that these pressures have failed to halt Iran’s air links with regional countries. Meanwhile, Iran’s Civil Aviation Organization has announced that it is documenting the restrictions imposed on international routes and will raise Iran’s objections with the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). Flights currently operate from Imam Khomeini International Airport to 19 international destinations and countries: Turkey, Iraq, China, Georgia, Armenia, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Russia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, Thailand, Vietnam, Uzbekistan, Malaysia, Tunisia, Kyrgyzstan and Macau.

US scales back West Asia military, diplomatic presence amid fears of Iranian retaliation: Report< The United States is reportedly reducing its military presence at bases across the West Asia region and cutting staffing levels at several diplomatic missions in the region amid the threat of Iranian retaliation to any fresh American-Israeli aggression. NBC News carried the report on Wednesday, noting how regional American facilities came under Iranian retaliatory strikes throughout the latest round of such aggression, resulting in significant US casualties. According to the report, US military personnel stationed at bases in Jordan are among those who have been relocated, while Washington is also withdrawing troops from facilities in Kuwait and Qatar as the military scales back its presence across the region. A day earlier, it was reported that the US Department of War was reassessing the future of its military installations across West Asia following Iranian retaliatory strikes in the face of the latest American-Israeli aggression that damaged several key US facilities. A senior Department of War official said the department was working with US Central Command (CENTCOM), which oversees the American troops deployed to the region, to evaluate damaged facilities and determine which installations would be needed under Washington’s future military posture, Washington-based news outlet Breaking Defense reported. Among the facilities struck by Iran as part of its response to the February 28-April 7 aggression was Qatar’s al-Udeid Airbase, the US’s biggest such regional outpost. The retaliation rendered the department’s Combined Air Operations Center there inoperable. US military installations in Saudi Arabia and Jordan were also targeted, while military infrastructure in Bahrain sustained major damage, with devastating effects to the US military’s regional logistical efficacy. Acting US Navy Secretary Hung Cao has acknowledged the extent of the destruction in Bahrain, saying “they blew the hell out of Bahrain.” Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Daryl Caudle has separately indicated that the US Navy’s return to Naval Support Activity Bahrain would not happen in the near term. According to NBC News, alongside the military drawdown, chiefs of mission at several US diplomatic posts in the region were also notified on Wednesday that they would operate with reduced staffing. State Department spokesman Tommy Pigott, however, denied an earlier Reuters report that the United States was preparing to order some personnel and family members to leave US embassies across West Asia, but confirmed that an ordered departure had been issued for Saudi Arabia. Pigott cited escalating operations by Yemen’s Armed Forces as the reason for the departure order.

Sea mine crisis re-emerges in Strait of Hormuz as Tehran urges Washington to accept deal - Sea mines have resurfaced as a threat in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran claimed Oct.17 that two oil tankers caught fire after striking the explosives, raising fresh alarms over the safety of one of the world's most critical shipping lanes. This came as the International Maritime Organization (IMO) warned that sea mines pose a serious threat to vessels navigating the strategic waterway and while Tehran continues to maintain its own unauthorized shipping corridor inside its territorial waters. "The traffic separation scheme, the information that we have is that they still have mines. And of course, whilst the conflict is ongoing, it's very difficult for us to use third parties to verify that it is clear of these hazards," IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez told Fox News Digital. "So in the meantime, we cannot guarantee that a vessel that intends to transit that route will not be hit by a mine." Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) navy said Saturday that two oil tankers caught fire after striking naval mines while crossing the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported, citing Iran's official Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA). State media also said both tankers were carrying about 2 million barrels of crude oil, according to Reuters. IRNA also reported that the vessels had switched off their positioning and radar systems and attempted to use a route through the strategic waterway that Iran had not authorized. The second tanker was left immobilized after striking a mine, according to the Reuters report. The alleged strikes came as Tehran continued to maintain its transit passageway inside Iranian territorial waters, imposing tolls and safety fees administered by the IRGC — a framework rejected by Washington and the IMO as inconsistent with international maritime law. International shipping through the narrow chokepoint has historically relied on an IMO-approved traffic separation scheme adopted in 1968. "Right now there's only one route that was adopted back in 1968 that is approved and recognized for IMO and that appears in all the charts for the vessels to operate," Dominguez explained. "There's only one route that should be used for transit, but it's not clear of mines right now, so it's not safe." "We have received confirmation from Iran about the establishment of its temporary route in the waters," he added before stating that the route was not provided with "an official confirmation or a decision of the organization." "Any other route needs to actually be sent to the organization to go through the processes, and we have not received that." "We have received communication from Iran to use that route because of the conflict," Dominguez clarified. "That's the way that it's been presented. But anything for us to approve needs to go through the mechanisms at the international maritime organizations and the member states need to review it." The developments also came amid stalled negotiations between Washington and Tehran over ending the conflict and restoring maritime traffic. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council and a former Revolutionary Guard commander, said Tehran considered Washington's latest response to negotiations "insufficient," Reuters reported, according to IRNA. Rezaei said the U.S. had accepted some of Iran's seven conditions but that other issues remained unresolved, adding that Tehran was no longer responding to Washington and that the U.S. needed to clarify the outstanding matters. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that Tehran had submitted a proposal to Washington through Qatar, which is mediating the negotiations, outlining conditions under which the Strait of Hormuz could reopen and normal maritime traffic resume within seven days. "Our situation is clear and based on ⁠the seven-day proposal presented to the US. They shared comments which ​we are reviewing, but our proposal is still on the table ​and if there is any honesty on the US part, which there isn't, the way to reopening the Strait of Hormuz is obvious," Araqchi said in ​Baghdad, Reuters reported.

Iran's IRGC Navy says seven vessels hit, warns US of wider response  (Reuters) - Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard ​Corps Navy said ‌on Thursday that four vessels involved ​in illegal oil ​transfers in the northern ⁠Persian Gulf ​were simultaneously hit ​and caught fire after being tracked by its ​forces on ​Wednesday. The IRGC added that three ‌more ⁠vessels collided with mines west of the Strait ​of Hormuz, ​and ⁠warned the US military ​that continued provocations ​could ⁠lead to a wider response ⁠against ​its regional ​bases.

Iran's Strait of Hormuz Attacks Put Oil Prices and Trump's Midterm Hopes at Risk -Iran's escalating attacks on commercial shipping near the Strait of Hormuz have heightened pressure on global oil prices and added to President Donald Trump's political challenges ahead of the Nov. 3 midterm elections. At least 23 attacks were recorded during the first two weeks of October, according to data by the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO). The surge threatens shipments through a critical Gulf energy route as U.S. households face higher fuel costs. Iranian officials have described the period before the election as an opportunity to increase economic pressure on Washington. October's attack tally exceeded the monthly totals recorded since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began on Feb. 28, according to UKMTO figures. Six vessels were attacked on one Sunday, while 12 incidents were recorded between Oct. 5 and 11. Two commercial vessels, the container ship GFS Pride and the dry bulk carrier Cape Dao, sank near the strait in mid-October after sustaining damage in separate attacks. The loss brought the reported number of commercial vessels sunk since the conflict began to three, according to an analysis of International Maritime Organization (IMO) casualty data. The IMO has reported 24 seafarer deaths in incidents near Hormuz during the conflict. Singapore's Maritime and Port Authority condemned the attacks in a statement. "MPA is deeply concerned about the continued attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz," Singapore's Maritime and Port Authority said in a statement. "Such attacks are unprovoked, unjustifiable, and a breach of international law." Brent crude touched $110 a barrel on Oct. 17 amid concerns about shipping near Hormuz and repeated missile and drone attacks by Iran-backed Houthi militants against Saudi Arabia. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures also gained, reaching $94.64 a barrel earlier in the week. Combined crude oil and petroleum product exports through Hormuz and alternative routes fell to an estimated 9.5 million barrels per day over the preceding week, according to the energy market, which compares with a recent high of 16 million barrels per day and a September average of 14 million barrels per day. The International Energy Agency warned on Oct. 15 that pressure on global diesel supplies could persist into the first half of 2027. Diplomatic uncertainty has added to concerns about when shipping volumes might recover. The lack of progress on the U.S.-Iran diplomatic track "leaves little immediate prospect of a full reopening of the waterway," said Firas Bechwaty, head of business development at trading platform ICM. Iranian officials and regional diplomats said that Tehran views the weeks before the U.S. elections as an opportunity to increase economic pressure on Trump. Iranian leaders expect the president to be less politically sensitive to elevated energy prices after Americans have voted. "It appears Iran is attempting to keep oil prices high ahead of the midterm elections, and the best way to do this has been to increase attacks, both from themselves and via the Houthis," said Matt Smith, analyst at Kpler. The political concern centers on fuel costs, which affect household spending and transportation expenses. U.S. gasoline averaged $2.98 a gallon on Feb. 26, two days before the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, and climbed above $4 within two months. At least six states subsequently recorded average gasoline prices above $5 a gallon, while diesel prices rose 71% from the start of the war. A Pew Research Center report found that 74% of Americans were concerned about gas and energy prices. Separately, a Politico poll found that 29% of undecided voters said a $1 reduction in gasoline prices wouldn't make them more inclined to vote Republican. Neither survey directly measured the electoral impact of the latest attacks near the Strait of Hormuz. Trump has sought to maintain pressure on Iran while addressing the economic effects of disrupted oil supplies. In a Truth Social post, he said his blockade of Iranian oil exports had left the country in a "very bad condition," adding that "we will not be attacking Iran at any time before the Midterm Elections." The statement didn't rule out further U.S. strikes after Election Day. The administration has also explored measures to increase available oil supplies, and it was considering easing sanctions on some "shadow fleet" vessels used to transport oil from countries including Russia. HSBC analysts have warned that Brent crude could reach approximately $120 a barrel if diplomatic efforts fail and oil flows through Hormuz remain near current levels.

Iran War Updates: Trump accuses Iran of making up fake strikes on ships to drive up oil prices --President Trump accused Iran of making up the fact that ships in the Strait of Hormuz are hitting mines or being struck by missiles or drones, saying it was a bid to drive up oil prices before the midterms. The price of Brent crude oil surged about 4% on Thursday to $113 per barrel as Iran's Revolutionary Guard said it had attacked four vessels near the Strait of Hormuz for using a route that Tehran rejects. The IRGC said three other ships using that route hit sea mines and were forced to halt. The U.S. military has quietly reduced its footprint at posts in the Middle East due to ongoing threats and attacks by Iran and its Houthi allies in Yemen, sources told CBS News on Wednesday. The latest attack, on King Fahd International Airport in the eastern Saudi city of Dammam, has killed at least two people and injured eight more.The U.S. Central Command posted a celebration Thursday of 100 days of its reinstated blockade on Iranian ships entering or exiting ports through the Strait of Hormuz.The blockade has prevented $25 billion in crude oil exports by Iran, according to CENTCOM.The blockade was reinstated on July 14 after the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding fell apart over the wording of one of the clauses. Iran believed it would determine navigation through the strait and withhold charging fees for at least 60 days. The U.S. said the wording in the memorandum did not allow for Iran to determine transit.Iran began targeting ships in the strait again and the U.S. reinstituted its blockade that initially ran from April 13 to June 18. The initial blockade redirected at least 140 ships attempting to transit the strait. The new one had redirected 138 ships as of the last U.S. update on Oct. 17."There have been no exports or imports to Iran by sea except for the humanitarian aid U.S. forces have allowed," the post added.

Report: US Troops and Diplomats Evacuating Posts Across the Middle East -  The US military has been scaling back its presence at bases across the Middle East, and the US has ordered staff reductions at multiple diplomatic posts in the region, NBC News reported Wednesday, amid growing signs that the US and Israel may be preparing to launch another attack on Iran. Sources told NBC that similar drawdowns were carried out before the US and Israel launched the war against Iran on February 28. US troops at bases in Jordan are among those that have been moved as Iran pounded the facilities during exchanges of strikes in the summer, attacks that caused significant US casualties. The US is also pulling troops out of facilities in Kuwait and Qatar.One US official told the outlet that moving troops out of harm’s way was part of the US military’s planning as President Trump considers restarting “major combat operations” against Iran potentially before or after the November 3 US midterm elections. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also appears eager to restart the bombing campaign as he’s facing elections in less than a week.The NBC report said that on Wednesday, chiefs of mission at multiple diplomatic posts in the Middle East were notified they would operate with reduced staff. State Department spokesman Tommy Pigott denied an earlier report from Reuters that said the US was preparing to issue an order for the departure of some personnel and family members at US embassies across the region, but acknowledged that such an order has been given for Saudi Arabia.“The US Department of State issued an ordered departure for non-emergency US government employees and their family members in Saudi Arabia only,” Pigott said.Saudi Arabia continues to face major attacks from Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthis, since Riyadh reignited the war by bombing the Sanaa International Airport. The US is strongly supporting the Saudi bombing campaign in Yemen, which has inflicted significant civilian casualties, by providing intelligence and refueling Saudi warplanes.“Iranian-supported Houthis have increasingly engaged in hostilities against Saudi Arabia, including attacks on civilian airports and other critical infrastructure resulting in civilian casualties and severe travel disruptions,” Pigott said. “The safety and security of Department personnel and their families remain our highest priority, and we will continue to take all necessary steps to protect and support them.”

Trump Says US 'Not Negotiating' With Iran, Something Will Happen 'Fairly Soon' -  President Trump told reporters on Wednesday night that the US was “not negotiating” with Iran and that something would be happening “fairly soon,” one of his latest vague threats against the Islamic Republic.Trump made the comments at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, after returning from a rally in South Carolina with former professional boxer Evander Holyfield.“We have a little conflict against Iran. I think I’ll send Evander ‘the Real Deal’ over there,” he said, gesturing toward Holyfield. “But we’re doing very well militarily and financially against Iran.”When asked about negotiations, Trump said, “We are not negotiating… something one way or another, and it’ll happen fairly soon. Most people seem to think it’s after the election; we will see what happens.”The New York Times reported on Wednesday that the US and Israel have drawn up plans to bomb Iran after the November 3 US midterm elections and that the targets would likely include energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and Iran’s missiles and drones.There have also been signs that an attack could come before the October 27 Knesset elections in Israel. According to a report from Axios, Israel flew dozens of fighter jets near the Iranian border on Monday, and US officials were left with the impression that Israel was attempting to provoke an Iranian response.

Iraq says no US troops left in the country, not even advisers -- Iraq’s prime minister said Friday that no US troops are left in the country, including in advisory roles, as Baghdad moves to bring all weapons under state control by next June. Ali Faleh Al-Zaidi told the Iraqi News Agency (INA) that the absence of foreign forces had removed the justification armed factions previously cited for retaining their weapons. He stressed that the government’s decision to restrict weapons to state institutions was final and irreversible. “By June 30, 2027, there will be no weapons outside the framework of the state,” he said. Al-Zaidi said the government reached agreements concerning weapons held by three armed factions and is negotiating with four others to complete the process. “Iraq is a state that has factions, not factions that own a state,” he added. Al-Zaidi said Iraq once was only days awa from facing international isolation, including the possible departure of foreign embassies and the imposition of restrictions. He said Western countries had believed that certain armed groups had effectively taken control of the Iraqi state, but his government had managed to overcome the threat. Despite the withdrawal of US troops, Al-Zaidi stressed that Baghdad remains committed to strengthening its strategic partnership with Washington. He said Iraq chose the US as a strategic partner for its technological and economic capabilities. The prime minister said US companies had already begun operating in Iraq and implementing projects in areas of bilateral cooperation. He added that the partnership with Washington, alongside the development of Iraq’s energy sector, would significantly enhance the country’s regional and international influence compared with previous years. US troop withdrawal Baghdad and Washington agreed in September 2024 on a phased withdrawal of US-led coalition forces from Iraq, with the military mission scheduled to conclude by this September. On Sept. 30, Iraq announced the end of the US-led coalition’s military mission in the country, while the Pentagon confirmed the departure of coalition forces and equipment from Erbil Air Base. The withdrawal marked a transition from the coalition’s military mission against the terror group ISIS (Daesh) to security cooperation, including training and intelligence sharing, according to Anadolu reports. Turning to regional developments, Al-Zaidi stressed that Iraq would not take part in any war and would remain a meeting point for opposing parties. He said the regional crisis would ultimately have to end with an agreement, regardless of how events unfolded. The prime minister rejected the possibility of closing Iraq’s border with Iran, warning that such a move would harm both countries. “Closing the border with Iran means economically besieging ourselves,” he said. Al-Zaidi said Iraq is working to establish a network of oil export pipelines to reduce its dependence on the Strait of Hormuz amid disruptions to maritime navigation in the strategic waterway. He said the government is seeking to reactivate the oil export route through Türkiye’s Ceyhan port and diversify its export outlets. “The Hormuz crisis has deprived Iraq of benefiting from rising oil prices,” he said, noting that Iraqi oil exports had fluctuated between suspension and resumption due to regional conditions. The prime minister also announced plans to boost Iraq’s oil production capacity to 10 million barrels per day by 2032. Describing the Development Road project with Türkiye as Iraq’s “third river,” he said construction would begin following parliamentary approval of the budget. The project aims to establish a major transportation corridor linking Iraq’s southern ports to Türkiye and onward to European markets.

US warns of Houthi threat in updated Israel travel advisory | The Jerusalem Post  - The US State Department issued an updated travel advisory notice for Israel on Friday, warning of an increased threat of armed attacks by Iran-backed Houthi terrorists and the potential for a rapid escalation of regional hostilities.The update did not change Israel's overall travel advisory classification, which remains at Level 3, urging American citizens to reconsider travel due to terrorism and unrest. The existing risk indicators and restrictions on travel to certain areas of the country also remain unchanged.In its warning on armed conflict, the State Department cited previous Houthi attacks against Saudi Arabia, including strikes on civilian airports and critical infrastructure that resulted in civilian casualties and major travel disruptions.The department warned that hostilities involving the Houthis could escalate rapidly beyond the areas immediately affected, potentially posing additional risks to travelers across the region.The updated warning comes against the backdrop of previous missile threats originating from Yemen, which have required Israel to activate air defense systems and issue civilian alerts.Despite the updated regional threat assessment, Washington has not raised its overall warning level for Israel. The State Department continues to advise Americans to reconsider travel because of terrorism and unrest, while maintaining stricter Level 4 restrictions in several designated areas.These restrictions cover areas north of the Route 85, Route 90, and Route 87 boundaries in northern Israel; locations within 11.3 kilometers of the Gaza Strip; and areas within 2.4 kilometers of the Israel-Egypt border, except near the Taba crossing, also known as the Menachem Begin crossing.The State Department said Israeli authorities restrict travel in the designated northern areas because of IDF activity and presence, and instructed Americans not to travel there for any reason. US government employees working in Israel face the same geographical restrictions. Official travel to these areas requires approval from the US Embassy's security office.

In Endorsement Message, Trump Says He Wants a Netanyahu-Led Israel To Help 'Finish the Job' Against Iran - President Trump on Sunday issued a strong endorsement of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for the upcoming October 27 Israeli elections and said that if Netanyahu lost, the US would have to “finish the job” against Iran without Israeli support.“Bibi Netanyahu has been a Great Warrior Prime Minister, and an even greater Partner for Peace in combatting the Islamic Republic of Iran, with its 51 year old chant, ‘Death to Israel, Death to America! We will destroy the Little Satan and the Big Satan.’ What Country can survive when things such as this are allowed to be said, because eventually, they always end up being true?” Trump wrote on Truth Social“It would have been only a question of time until Iran would have put that ominous phrase into effect, but they have been systematically destroyed, both Militarily and Financially, and unless they change their ways, rapidly, we will soon finish the job. If Israel has the wrong Leader, which would be anyone other than Bibi, America will have to do this work ourselves, and I am not inclined to do so,” he added. Trump concluded the post by saying it should serve as his “Complete and Total Endorsement of Bibi Netanyahu in his upcoming Race for Re-Election as Prime Minister of Israel,” adding that “BIBI NETANYAHU WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!”Israeli opposition figures expressed criticism of Trump’s attempt to influence Israel’s election, with Gadi Eisenkot, the leading opposition candidate, saying he tried to prevent it. “There were a number of meetings I don’t want to elaborate on. I requested that there be no intervention in Israel’s internal election. But I’ll deal with it,” he said.For his part, Netanyahu welcomed the endorsement. “President Trump, my dear friend Donald. I’m so honored and humbled by your extraordinary endorsement. I can say there’s never been a greater friend of Israel in the White House,” he said in a video statement.Netanyahu also addressed Americans, suggesting that if they were worried about high gas prices, it would have been worse if Iran obtained a nuclear weapon. While both Trump and Netanyahu continue to frame the war as meant to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran, there was no evidence either before the June 2025 war or the current conflict that Tehran had decided to make a bomb. Axios noted in its report on the endorsement that it marked the first time in history a US president explicitly and publicly endorsed a candidate in an Israeli election.

Trump to Netanyahu: 'You're the Man I Want By My Side' - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu released footage on Monday of a call with President Trump, during which the US president told the Israeli leader, “You’re the man I want by my side.”The call came after Trump endorsed Netanyahu for the upcoming October 27 Israeli elections in a long post on Truth Social, where he suggested that the US may have to “finish the job” against Iran without the help of Israel if Netanyahu doesn’t remain prime minister. In the phone call, the two leaders alluded to the Iran war, with Netanyahu using the same language as Trump’s post.   “Donald, we have a job to finish. You said it, and we’ll finish it together. We’ll finish it, and no one else will do it,” Netanyahu said.Trump told Netanyahu that he “crafted” the post himself. “You’re a warrior, and you’ve been treated unfairly by your country and from some others … but you’re a great warrior, and we will prove that. We will prove that very soon,” he said. “I think you’re terrific, Bibi … You’re the man I want by my side, Bibi.”Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Sunday responded to Trump’s post and the suggestion that the US and Israel will “finish the job” against Iran, suggesting that Netanyahu was leading the US into another war.“Last time you wanted to ‘finish the job,’ Iran emerged even stronger. Want to try your luck again? Be our guest. But be careful; we have unfinished jobs too,” Araghchi wrote on X. “Netanyahu is driving America into another war to stay out of jail, whatever the consequences for Israel—let alone POTUS.”

Netanyahu Says He Discussed 'Eliminating' the Iranian Government With Trump - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday that Israel was “committed” to “eliminating” the Iranian government and that he spoke about the idea in his recent conversation with President Trump. According to The Times of Israel, Netanyahu made the comments at the Tel Hai University in Kiryat Shmona near Israel’s border with Lebanon. “I am committed to finishing the job,” he said, referring to Israel’s war in Lebanon. “Finishing the job means bringing down the terrorist regime in Iran. It is the head of this poisonous octopus. You cut it off, and it will fall. We will also have peace with Lebanon,” he said. “We must complete the elimination of the Iranian regime — that is the primary objective. I have spoken about this with President Trump more than once, including the day before yesterday.” A day earlier, Netanyahu released part of a phone call he had with President Trump on Sunday, where he thanked the US leader for endorsing him in the upcoming Israeli elections. In Trump’s endorsement message, he suggested that the US may have to “finish the job” against Iran without the help of Israel if Netanyahu doesn’t remain prime minister. In his conversation with Trump, Netanyahu said that the US and Israel have a “job to finish,” and his comments on Tuesday suggest that means regime change. US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth made an unannounced visit to Israel on Monday and met with Netanyahu. The US and Israel have been coordinating closely in the lead-up to the Israeli elections and the US midterm elections, and according to recent reporting from Axios, they have been discussing the possibility of resuming the full-scale bombing campaign against Iran.

Hegseth Meets Netanyahu During Unannounced Visit to Israel: Axios - US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth made an unannounced visit to Israel on Monday and met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to a report from Axios. So far, the trip and meeting haven’t been confirmed by the US or Israel, but the report said that the talks took place at the Ovda Air Base in southern Israel, where US refueling planes and fighter jets are deployed. A source told Axios reporter Barak Ravid that Hegseth also met with some US troops.The reported visit comes about one week before the October 27 Israeli elections and after previous reporting from Axios that said Netanyahu and President Trump have discussed the possibility of restarting the full-scale bombing campaign against Iran. That reporting identified Hegseth as the strongest supporter of resuming strikes on Iran within the administration.Trump and Netanyahu have also spoken openly about the idea of having to “finish the job” against Iran, something Trump said in a post on Truth Social endorsing the Israeli leader.Also on Monday, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir placed the Israeli military on the “highest state of alert” and suspended leave for Israeli soldiers. He said the IDF will “continue to maintain a high level of vigilance and readiness across all fronts” as the election approaches.IDF sources told Haaretz that there were no specific warnings of a potential attack that prompted Zamir’s move, but that there were concerns that the upcoming election could encourage attempts to attack Israel. Netanyahu has repeatedly claimed Israel was facing the threat of attack before election day, though the Haaretz report said that the Israeli security establishment “has identified no escalation in threats against Israel and no call-up orders have been issued to reservists or officers in key emergency positions.”

Pete Hegseth’s future as Pentagon chief at center of lame-duck defense battle - Senate Democrats are quietly floating the ouster of Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth after the Nov. 3 election as the political price for cooperation on key defense-related issues in the postelection lame-duck session, and they may have some GOP support to shake up the Pentagon’s leadership, according to Senate sources. The Defense Department has set recruiting records under Hegseth’s leadership, and the Pentagon chief appears to have strong support from President Trump, who likes to brag that Hegseth looks like a military leader from “central casting.” But some Republican senators haven’t been happy with Hegseth’s leadership, especially his ouster of well-respected military leaders such as Army Secretary Dan Driscoll, Army chief of staff Randy George, Navy Secretary John Phelan and four-star Gen. Chris Donahue, the top U.S. military officer in Europe. Democrats view Hegseth’s leadership as a disaster and are looking for leverage to push him out after the midterm elections, according to Senate sources, just as they attempted to push former Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem out of her job during the prolonged stalemate over funding for her department earlier this year. Trump eventually fired Noem after key Republican senators, such as Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.), turned against her publicly. Now Democrats have significant leverage over Hegseth’s future at the Pentagon as they’re threatening to hold up emergency defense funding the White House requested in June as well as regular funding for the Defense Department, which expires on Dec. 11. Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.), a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said Hegseth’s resignation could set the stage for more bipartisan cooperation on must-pass defense bills, such as the National Defense Authorization Act and the annual defense appropriations bill. Kaine told The Hill before the Senate adjourned for the election that Hegseth’s departure would help lower the partisan temperature in the standoff over the defense measures. Republican sources say that Senate Democrats have already privately floated Hegseth’s termination as something that could help muster bipartisan cooperation on filling key vacancies at the Pentagon, such as the positions of Army and Navy secretary left open by the departures of Driscoll and Phelan. As things now stand, Senate Democrats are threatening to block the defense spending bills and also a waiver for Hung Cao, Trump’s nominee to serve as Navy secretary. Cao needs a special congressional waiver to lead the Navy because federal law requires a seven-year waiting period before former military officers can be confirmed to top Pentagon civilian leadership posts. Democrats are drawing a hard line on supporting defense funding in the lame-duck session if the military conflict with Iran isn’t wrapped up before the end of the year. “My own view is that if the war is over, then the opportunity for bipartisanship on defense authorization and defense appropriations is there. I think if the war’s not over, it’s going to be extremely difficult,” said Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii), who is poised to take over as Democratic whip in the next Congress. Schatz said he was speaking about his personal view of the prospects of a deal on defense spending. So far, some key Senate Republicans say they don’t see Trump agreeing to push Hegseth out of the job to get cooperation from Democrats on the defense authorization and funding measures in the lame-duck session. “That’s a bridge too far,” warned a GOP senator, who requested anonymity to discuss the looming negotiations over breaking the logjam on defense legislation after Election Day. A senior Pentagon official dismissed the criticism of Hegseth’s leadership from Democrats and some key Republicans by pointing to his record of accomplishments over the past 20 months.

Hegseth’s team broke WWII-era globe from Eisenhower’s office - Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s team dropped and damaged a historic World War II-era globe previously used by Gen. Dwight D. Eisenhower, a source familiar with the incident told The Hill on Thursday. While moving the artifact to the secretary’s office, Hegseth’s staff lost control of the 30-inch floor globe, causing it to crash on its base and resulting in an inches-wide gash near Antarctica, The Washington Post first reported Thursday. The Post obtained images of the globe that showed the damage caused during the early February relocation attempt. The Army’s press office referred The Hill to Hegseth’s office. A Pentagon official confirmed to The Hill on Thursday the accident occurred while staff was transporting the replica of the Eisenhower globe as part of its relocation. “Accidents happen, we are grateful no one was harmed, and the globe is being repaired,” the official said in a statement. “It is unsurprising that the Washington Post is once again dedicating time to another inconsequential non-story.” The globe was ultimately not relocated. One of the Eisenhower globes has pen lines and markings from World War II on it, the source familiar told The Hill, speaking on condition of anonymity. Early this year, Hegseth wanted the globe to be relocated to his office, but instead of trained curators, his staff dispatched its own team to do the job, the Post reported. The Army office in possession of the artifact initially expected to consult with experts to make sure it could be safely transported, the newspaper reported. Those plans were later interrupted when staffers were furloughed during a partial government shutdown as a result of a disagreement in Congress over the Trump administration’s immigration policy. After failing to reach the experts, Hegseth’s staff took the matter into its own hands, according to the Post.

Airman who plummeted 150ft to his death during 'pointless' Hegseth stunt identified as 15-year veteran | Watch -Air Force Technical Sergeant Ian Patterson has been identified as the airman killed during a pregame demonstration. He fell 150 feet from the rafters at the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas. Medics treated Patterson on the field for ten minutes as 23,000 spectators watched. The game continued after a short delay. Patterson was confirmed dead at the hospital. He had served in the United States Air Force for 15 years. In 2022, Patterson was named Air Force Special Warfare Enlisted Instructor of the Year.

Tillis says Miller, Hegseth, RFK Jr. should be fired - Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) again called for the firing of top Trump administration officials as the retiring Republican continues to clash with his own party. Appearing on sports commentator Stephen A. Smith’s SiriusXM show Wednesday, Tillis said he thinks President Trump should let go of three senior officials who he said “present no cost-benefit”: White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. “They’re costing us more than they are benefiting us,” Tillis said. “None of this is personal to me, Stephen,” the North Carolina senator added. “I’ve fired my best friend, and I would fire them if I were the president.” Tillis has spoken out against administration officials throughout this year, frequently accusing them of giving the president bad advice. “So there are aspects about this president that I admire and will always admire, but I do not admire bad advice, and I hate bad execution,” Tillis said in March. “And when I see it, and I think it’s undermining the president of the United States’ agenda, then I’m going to call them out.” In the interview with Smith, Tillis said he does not blame the president for Republicans’ ongoing political turmoil, but those who surround him. He compared Trump to the CEO of a company, arguing if the president fired “the worst performing” administration officials, things would look up for him in the latter half of his second term. “He just needs to get some of these people out of there, and we will see a different trajectory —particularly if you have people that will invest in a relationship with Congress for people like me who want to help him,” Tillis said. The GOP is bracing for possible big losses with midterm elections less than two weeks away. Recent polls have shown Trump with record-low approval, and Democrats hold narrow leads in enough races to win back Senate control, according to nonpartisan election forecaster Decision Desk HQ, a partner of The Hill. As the GOP prepares for a political hit, Tillis said his calls to fire some top officials has less to do with a defense of Trump and more to do with defending the Republican Party.

Israeli forces arrest 90, including US congressional candidate, during West Bank raid Israeli forces have detained 90 people, including US congressional candidate Brad Lander, during an olive harvest in the occupied West Bank, as the Israeli regime intensifies its military raids across the territory. According to Israeli rights group Rabbis for Human Rights, Lander, the Democratic Party nominee for New York’s 10th congressional district, was accompanying Palestinian farmers during an olive harvest near Bethlehem and had been supporting them for around two hours when Israeli forces arrested him. “I’ve been detained by the Israeli military, along with a group of rabbis & volunteers,” Lander said in a post on the social media platform X on Wednesday, sharing a picture of himself on a bus. “We were simply harvesting olives in a grove” in the West Bank, he continued. “The occupation is a crime under international law. Harvesting olives isn’t a crime under any law I know.” Lander previously posted that he was visiting the occupied West Bank with the “Protect the Harvest” coalition, which he said was “bringing people together from around the world to help Palestinian farmers harvest olives in the face of state-sanctioned settler terrorism.” “Our goals for the trip are to help protect the olive harvest — and to shed a light on the reality of the occupation,” he said in a post published on X on Monday. Lander, a political ally of New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani, has been critical of Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza that has killed more than 74,000 Palestinians and wounded over 175,000 others, while destroying around 90% of the civilian infrastructure in the besieged strip. Two Israeli lawyers, who work on similar cases, described Wednesday’s incident as the largest mass abduction of activists in the occupied West Bank in at least a decade, NPR reported. Rabbi Arik Asherman, a longtime Israeli human rights proponent, also called the abductions “unprecedented.” In a press release, T’ruah, a Jewish human rights group, called the Israeli military actions “an outrageous abuse of power, and part of a systematic, state-backed campaign of ethnic cleansing aimed at driving Palestinians from their land.”

US Africa Command Launches Its 87th Airstrike of the Year in Somalia - US Africa Command on Tuesday announced that its forces launched an airstrike in Somalia on October 17, as the Trump administration continues a bombing campaign in the country that receives virtually no US media attention.AFRICOM said in a press release that the strike targeted al-Shabaab near the Dhooble Airport, near the Kenyan border in Somalia’s Lower Juba region, approximately 112 miles northwest of the southern port city of Kismayo.As usual, AFRICOM offered no other details about the strike, as it stopped sharing casualty estimates and assessments of civilian harm, and there have been no statements from US-backed forces about military operations in the area that day.The attack marked the first airstrike in Somalia that AFRICOM announced this month, though despite the apparent lull, the US has still launched a huge number of airstrikes in the country this year, relative to previous years. New America, an organization that tracks the air war, has put the number of airstrikes at 89, as its count includes credible media reports of US attacks that haven’t been reported by AFRICOM. For example, Drop Site News reported that the US launched an airstrike in Somalia’s northeastern Puntland region against an ISIS affiliate on September 3, but it was never acknowledged by AFRICOM.The US has been involved in Somalia for decades and has been fighting al-Shabaab since the George W. Bush administration backed an Ethiopian invasion in 2006 that ousted the Islamic Courts Union, a Muslim coalition that briefly held power in Mogadishu after taking the city from CIA-backed warlords.Al-Shabaab emerged as the radical offshoot of the Islamic Courts Union, and its first recorded attack was a suicide bombing in 2007 that targeted Ethiopian troops occupying Mogadishu. It wasn’t until 2012 that the group pledged loyalty to al-Qaeda. The ISIS affiliate in Puntland started as an offshoot of al-Shabaab and first emerged in 2015.

US and UAE Launch Airstrikes Against al-Shabaab in Northern Somalia -  --The US and the UAE have both launched airstrikes targeting al-Shabaab in northern Somalia’s Puntland region in recent days amid clashes in the area between al-Shabaab and local Puntland forces. US Africa Command said in a press release on Wednesday that its forces launched a strike on October 19 in the Cal Madow Mountains, about 22 miles south of the Gulf of Aden port city of Bosaso, where the US and the UAE have established a military presence. AFRICOM offered no details about the strike, as it has stopped sharing casualty estimates and assessments on civilian harm.The AFP reported that the UAE had also conducted a drone strike in the Galgala mountain pass in the Cal Madow Mountains on October 20, marking the first known UAE airstrike in Somalia in nearly a year. Sources told the outlet that the strike targeted four al-Shabaab militants planting roadside bombs and wounded two of them, and then local Puntland forces moved in and killed two al-Shabaab fighters.Al-Shabaab is much more active in southern Somalia, and that’s where US airstrikes typically target them, but the group has maintained a presence in the Cal Madow mountains.The AFP report said that the UAE drone had taken off from the Bosaso airport, where the UAE has a military base. The US has also operated at the base and recently signed an agreement with the Puntland government to expand its military presence in the Gulf of Aden port city, signaling more US escalations in Somalia, though the base could also be used as a launchpad for operations in Yemen.The UAE’s base in Bosaso has been a source of major controversy, as an investigation by Middle East Eye found that the facility was being used as a key logistics hub for weapons shipments to Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which the US government has determined has committed genocide in Sudan.The Mogadishu-based Somali Federal Government ordered the UAE to leave Bosaso, and there were reports earlier this year that said the UAE was pulling military equipment out of the base, but the drone strike on Wednesday suggests that Abu Dhabi’s military presence continues. The Puntland government, which controls Bosaso, withdrew from the federal system in 2024 over changes made to the constitution by Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and has recently clashed with federal forces. While the US arms and trains Somali federal troops, it has strongly backed the Puntland government in its war against an ISIS affiliate in the region, which is an offshoot of al-Shabaab. The Trump administration has dramatically escalated airstrikes in Somalia, and the October 19 attack marked at least the 88th US airstrike in Somalia of 2026.

Aevex’s drone-launching boats sunk by Navy, report says. The stock is crumbling. -Shares of military drone maker Aevex got sucker-punched Thursday following a report that the U.S. Navy has suspended purchases of its speedboats used to launch drones from the sea. Aevex is disputing the report. Shares of Aevex were down 31% Wednesday afternoon to around $10, less than half what they closed at on Aevex’s first day as a public company in April. Shares of other drone makers, including AeroVironment, Kratos, and Karman appeared unaffected by the news. The move is a huge blow to the up-and-coming drone maker, which was on track to increase its sales from $433 million in 2025 to between $700 million and $720 million in 2026, according to its latest earnings report in August. It gets most of its revenue from contracts with the U.S. government. The Navy has spent $136.8 million on the boats to date, according to Bloomberg, which reported the suspension. The halt was due to “ongoing performance issues related to limitations to the hardware and the emergence of more suitable alternatives, including cheaper one-way attack drones,” Bloomberg added. Aevex said it is proud of the boat’s “proven record of service with the U.S. Navy.” It added that “Recent reporting on GARC’s operational performance is inaccurate.” The company went on to deny that any orders for the drone boats had been halted. The U.S. Navy declined to comment on the report. The sting is even worse for Aevex because it just completed a $650 million purchase of BlackSea, the company that makes the boats, in September. The 16-feet vessels, known as global autonomous reconnaissance crafts, can hold up to 1,000 pounds of payload and can travel at speeds up to 40 knots, which is the equivalent of around 46 miles an hour. More broadly, the halt shows the challenges the U.S. military is facing in its billion-dollar “Drone Dominance” program created under President Donald Trump in 2025 and aimed at “unleashing American drone dominance.”

Mitt Romney issues warning as Republicans challenge Trump’s Russia deal – Former Utah Sen. Mitt Romney said the United States could embark on a path of abandoning liberty if the country does not stand behind Ukraine, joining a growing list of Republicans who are critical of President Donald Trump’s sanctions waiver.In a rare public statement over the weekend, Romney issued a stark warning to Trump when it comes to making deals with Russia at the expense of Ukraine, a U.S. ally. The brief post on social media coincides with some congressional Republicans threatening to stall Trump’s agenda after the midterm elections if the president doesn’t resume sanctions against Russia.“‘We will pay any price….to assure the success and survival of liberty.’ Is this still true?” Romney wrote, loosely quoting President John F. Kennedy’s 1961 inaugural address. “Do we prize liberty or do we prize power and purse? No more clear test than the choice between Ukraine and Russia. Abandon Ukraine and we abandon liberty. Eventually even our own.”Trump signed an executive order on Friday night that would exempt Russia from a sweeping sanctions package that Congress passed last month, raising concerns among Ukrainian officials the deal would financially boost Russia as it continues its invasion. The order did not explain why the sanctions were being lifted, but it comes amid record-high gas prices in the United States that Trump has sought to ease before the midterm elections.The order was signed one week after Trump announced a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin to import Russian diesel fuel, a decision that elicited backlash from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as well as congressional Republicans. Utah Sen. John Curtis was among those who urged the president to reverse course.Some Republican lawmakers have even gone so far as to threaten derailing key agenda items for Trump during the lame-duck legislative period between the midterm elections and the beginning of the next Congress. Depending on the election results, Republicans could be pressured to approve certain funding items in that two-month period that would otherwise become dead on arrival if Democrats win control of either chamber next year.“Congress has a lame-duck session. The President has an agenda: supplemental, reconciliation, Ballroom, etc.,” Rep, Don Bacon, who is retiring in January, said in a post on X. “I think the agenda is dead. Many of us won’t fund these things knowing he is propping up a dictator’s invasion and throwing an ally under the bus.”GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, who is in a tight reelection fight in Pennsylvania, told The Wall Street Journal that government funding could get withheld in the upcoming legislative session if “agencies … (are) not doing their jobs.”Trump has since doubled down on his executive order, suggesting in a lengthy post over the weekend that Zelenskyy opposes his deal with Russia because the Ukrainian leader does not want the war to end.

Wright defends Trump’s Russian diesel deal as ‘carrot’ for peace – - Energy Secretary Chris Wright on Sunday defended President Donald Trump’s diesel deal with Russia as an “incentive” for Moscow to “reduce” its war in Ukraine, adding that after four years of conflict, other attempts to bring both sides to the table had failed. “This is a carrot to try to end a war. It’s not an economic lifeline for Russia,” Wright said on ABC’s “This Week.” “President Trump isn’t going to just throw up his arms and say, ‘Well, I guess we can never stop it,’” he added, when pressed on why a “carrot” was the appropriate action at this moment. “Clearly, it’s a tricky problem.” Wright argued that sanctions on Russian oil remain in place and that Moscow could only benefit from diesel relief by reducing its war effort or reaching an agreement with Ukraine that would allow it to repair its oil refineries. Pressed about Trump’s earlier announcement of an energy ceasefire, which both Ukraine and Russia have denied, Wright described an agreement as something the president was still pursuing. “This is President Trump encouraging Russia: If they want to export diesel, if they want to get the benefits you believe that are about to be showered upon them — the only way they can do that is with an energy ceasefire or some reduction of war effort,” Wright said. Asked again whether a ceasefire existed, he said, “President Trump is always working to move them in the direction to have that kind of a deal.” Wright’s characterization stands in sharp contrast with Trump’s remarks about the ceasefire earlier this week: “Well, they agreed. You know why? Because I said you agreed. That’s why,” Trump said Monday when asked by a reporter about the supposed agreement. Trump defended his approach Sunday, arguing that additional action against Moscow could jeopardize peace negotiations. “My decision on Russia is a very simple one,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post. “I am in the process of negotiating Peace in the war between Russia and Ukraine, and don’t want to do anything that will drive, foolishly, Russia away from the bargaining table.” The president also cited a desire to limit Moscow’s assistance to Tehran and blamed Ukrainian strikes on Russian diesel refineries for hurting global fuel markets, while accusing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of prolonging the war. “He could have made a better deal two years ago than he can now,” Trump wrote. Trump announced the temporary lifting of sanctions on Russian diesel earlier this month, the president’s latest effort to lower fuel prices ahead of the midterms. In a separate move Friday, he signed an executive order exempting Russia from key sanctions outlined in the Lindsey Graham sanctions law, which was set to take effect Sunday..

Turkey will get some diesel from US-Russia supply deal, energy minister says (Reuters) - Turkey will take some of the diesel Russia is supplying to global markets under its agreement with US President Donald Trump, Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said on Sunday. Bayraktar ​said the US-Russia diesel supply deal was important in terms of energy security for ‌Turkey. Ankara relies on Russia for some of its energy needs, as well as on Iran, Azerbaijan and others. It is trying to diversify through deals with the US and other partners. e "Russia imposed restrictions on ​diesel exports in recent months when they started experiencing this problem. Now they reached ​a diesel deal with Trump... Through the talks we held, we will ⁠take some of that diesel to Turkey," Bayraktar told broadcaster Kanal 7. He did not ​elaborate. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, European officials and some of Trump's fellow Republican politicians strongly criticised the deal. Bayraktar ​also said that Turkey plans to bring a second floating gas production platform online in the first quarter of 2028, adding that the platform would bring Turkey's daily output in the Black Sea to 45 ​million cubic metres. On Saturday, Turkey sent its first floating gas production platform, the Osman Gazi, to ​the Black Sea, a move Bayraktar has said is expected to roughly double daily output from its largest ‌domestic ⁠gas field, the Sakarya field, to 20 million cubic metres from the current 9.5 million, equivalent to 7.3 billion cubic metres (bcm) annually. "In the first quarter of 2028, the second floating production platform is coming to Turkey and we will carry out 25 million cubic metres of production ​with it. It has ​a slightly bigger capacity (than ⁠Osman Gazi)," he said. "Therefore, with 45 million cubic metres, we will be using our own gas in three out of four homes in ​Turkey." He added that Turkey's daily production at the field would increase ​to 550,000 ⁠barrels of oil equivalent with the second floating platform. Turkey is one of Europe's largest gas markets, consuming 59 bcm last year. The country relies on imports for almost all its gas needs, with ⁠domestic ​production totalling 3.1 bcm last year, most of it from ​the Sakarya field. Bayraktar also said hydrocarbon exploration operations planned off Pakistan had been delayed by about six months due to the ​Iran war's impact on the region.

Russia energy sanctions will stay despite US diesel deal, von der Leyen says – — The EU will not ease sanctions on Russian fossil fuels even after the U.S. struck a diesel deal with Moscow, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Wednesday morning.In a speech to EU lawmakers, she warned “Russia is not a trusted supplier of energy because it would, this is our experience, at any time weaponize energy dependencies to blackmail others,” arguing it was Russia that cut gas supply to Europe. “That is a lesson Europe certainly will not forget.” Earlier this month, U.S. President Donald Trump announced an agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin to ease sanctions on imports of diesel fuel until April 2027, as global oil prices surge. A few days later, Trump defended the deal, arguing the EU had also purchased billions in fossil fuels from Moscow, without providing further details. She confirmed that the European Commission would present a new deterrent tool as soon as December. This tool is expected to be based on the one proposed by Berlin and Paris earlier this month and would empower the EU executive to restrict or even ban imports from countries seen as distorting the single market. It would require minimal consultation from member states, allowing faster action from Brussels.This instrument would come alongside a diversification instrument and a solidarity mechanism which are already in the works. "We see jobs lost in our industrial heartlands," von der Leyen said, adding that the EU will continue to seek deals with Beijing after an agreement to cap Chinese hybrid imports. As POLITICO reported last week, the EU is expected to prioritize chemicals and industrial machinery in its efforts to protect European industry from Chinese competition.

Russia Launches First Diesel Tanker to U.S. as Drone-Hit Refineries Cast Doubt on Deal - The first 40,000-metric-ton Russian diesel shipment is underway under the Trump-Putin fuel pact, but drone-damaged refineries, bipartisan congressional opposition, and Ukraine's resumed refinery strikes raise grave doubts about the deal's staying power before the November 3 midterms. Briefing:

• Russia's Deputy PM Alexander Novak confirmed Wednesday that the first tanker — carrying 40,000 metric tons of diesel — departed Thursday under the Trump-Putin fuel supply agreement announced October 9, with the destination port still undisclosed.
• U.S. diesel crossed $6 a gallon for the first time ever on September 11 and stood at $6.28 as of October 19, making fuel costs a defining political liability with the November 3 midterm elections now less than two weeks away.
• Ukraine's resumed drone campaign against Russian refineries — which the IEA calculates were struck once every three days through August — and bipartisan congressional opposition cast serious doubt on Russia's ability to deliver diesel at the volumes promised.

A tanker loaded with 40,000 metric tons of Russian diesel cleared port Thursday as the opening delivery of a Trump-Putin fuel pact that has already fractured congressional alliances, enraged Kyiv, triggered and then shattered a short-lived energy ceasefire, and pulled global diesel prices down by 5 to 6 percent — before the first barrel reaches U.S. shores.Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told reporters Wednesday that the vessel would depart carrying 40,000 metric tons — roughly 300,000 barrels — of fuel, without identifying the departure port, the tanker's name, or the American terminal scheduled to receive the cargo. Putin, who that same afternoon held talks with U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff in St. Petersburg on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, described Russia as readying multiple tanker shipments and said Moscow could deliver fuel, in Novak's words, "to the extent of our capabilities" — a commitment that carries significant supply-side caveats given the state of the country's refining infrastructure. The supply contract governing the arrangement, Novak separately cautioned, was still being finalized, leaving the volume and timing of future deliveries undefined.President Trump announced the arrangement via Truth Social on October 9 following a phone call with Putin, declaring that Russia would immediately provide at least 300,000 metric tons of diesel to American and global markets — roughly 2.25 million barrels — with 500,000 additional tons pledged for November and 1 million tons immediately thereafter. Trump's post also projected 3 million metric tons in a further round, while Russian officials have said the country could eventually export up to 3.5 million metric tons per month.That same day, the Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued General License 135, a temporary authorization for Russian diesel transactions running through April 7, 2027 — a legal mechanism that bypasses the sanctions framework Congress assembled after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Russia, in turn, formally lifted its diesel export ban beginning October 10 — a restriction Moscow had imposed to contain domestic fuel shortages that months of Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries had helped deepen. During the St. Petersburg talks, Witkoff personally thanked Putin for rolling back the export limits; Putin credited the announcement with a 5 to 6 percent drop in global diesel prices.The arrangement carries a structural contradiction: the refining capacity Russia is promising to tap has been severely degraded by the same war that created the energy crisis being sold as the deal's justification.Ukraine's Ministry of Defence reported earlier this month that drone attacks had cut production at at least half of Russia's most productive diesel refineries, forcing across-the-board output cuts at plants that together supply a substantial share of the country's fuel.The International Energy Agency has quantified the pace of damage: Russian oil facilities were struck by Ukrainian drones once every three days on average through the first eight months of 2026. The IEA subsequently lowered its Russian refinery throughput forecast to approximately 4 million barrels per day — against nameplate capacity of 6.5 million barrels per day — citing compounding structural damage, sanctions-driven equipment shortfalls, and growing reliability risks across the network. The 250,000-barrel-per-day Moscow refinery, heavily struck in June, is expected to remain offline until at least early 2027.

Trump announces $8B relief program for farmers -  President Trump announced Monday that a new $8 billion program will help provide temporary relief to farmers during the harvest season. Trump announced the Harvest Fuel Relief Program during his rally in Kansas stumping for GOP Sen. Roger Marshall, who is running for reelection in a competitive race against his Democratic opponent Adam Hamilton. He said the $8 billion is “in support to offset diesel costs during this harvest season.” “Roger Marshall is the leader who fought for that to happen,” he said. “Roger got it to happen.” The $8 billion will be available for one-time payments to farmers, a release from the Agriculture Department said. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said the program will deliver “critical support to farmers facing rising costs and market disruptions.” Farm state Republicans have been pushing for the administration to do something about the high diesel prices amid the war with Iran. The current average price for diesel is roughly $6.32 per gallon, according to AAA. The average price a year ago for diesel was $3.63 per gallon. Trump has also tried other initiatives to lower high diesel costs. Earlier this month, he announced steps to increase the availability of red-dyed diesel. The diesel has red dye added to it to signal that it is tax exempt. It’s typically used in farm and construction equipment. While some Republicans have called for a pause to diesel exports, Trump said earlier this month that he would not authorize an export ban on diesel.

Trump releases heating oil to the Northeast to reduce surging prices - The Trump administration announced Wednesday that it will release up to one-third of the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve in a bid to lower the cost of the fuel as winter looms — and as Maine’s bitter Senate race hangs in the balance. The announcement comes as Republican Sen. Susan Collins makes a case to Maine voters amid a tight reelection contest that her years of experience in Congress show she can deliver for them. Democratic challenger Troy Jackson said she should have done more to end the U.S. war with Iran that led to the price surge. The race is one of a handful across the country that could determine whether Republicans or Democrats control the Senate next year. About 3% of U.S. households rely on heating oil, mostly concentrated in the Northeast, especially in Maine, where Collins and independent Sen. Angus King have both been pushing for a release from the reserve. The average cost of a gallon of heating oil in the United States is $6.14, according to the most recent Energy Information Administration data. That’s more than double the price a year ago, which was $2.60. In New England, the average price is $6.08. “I have repeatedly urged the administration to use every tool to increase supply and lower energy prices,” Collins said in a statement from the Senate Appropriations Committee, which she chairs. “The Department anticipates this release will put downward pressure on home heating oil costs and make a real difference for Maine homeowners as they prepare for winter.” Jackson said she could have voted with Democrats in the Senate to force President Donald Trump to end the war he launched against Iran in February that has since spread through the Middle East, causing oil and fuel prices to increase. “Two weeks before Election Day, she wants Mainers to believe she’s coming to the rescue,” Jackson said in a statement Wednesday. “Susan Collins is like an arsonist who sets the house on fire and then wants credit for bringing you a cup of water.” In the announcement today, the Department of Energy said it has released a Request for Proposal for an exchange of up to 315,000 barrels of fuel oil from the reserve. Under the terms of the exchange, borrowing companies must return the same volume of fuel oil plus a premium, ensuring that the reserve is refilled ahead of next year’s heating season. “The Trump Administration is committed to doing everything in our power to lower energy costs for the American people,” Energy Secretary Chris Wright said in a statement. Wright stressed that the release was a “temporary measure” to alleviate a supply disruption and said that Democratic leaders in the Northeast should join the push for a new natural gas pipeline that would help the region shift away from expensive heating oil.

Trump's diesel price relief efforts grow costlier as election nears (Reuters) - With the November midterm elections fast approaching, President Donald Trump is throwing an array of costly and politically fraught solutions at one stubborn problem: the price of diesel. His administration has offered billions of dollars to farmers, relaxed rules for truckers, eased sanctions on Russian ​fuel and pressured European allies to release emergency stocks. Yet diesel prices rose again last week, leaving Trump spending political and financial capital without delivering the relief his party wants as voters go to ‌the polls. Republicans are defending narrow majorities in Congress, and high costs are a major concern for voters. Nearly 80% of Americans blame Trump for higher costs, according to an October Reuters/Ipsos poll. US diesel prices rose nearly 10 cents a gallon in the latest week to an average of $6.28, reversing two weeks of declines and remaining near record highs, according to the Energy Information Administration. Diesel in the last two months has become a central issue not only in the midterms but as a catalyst driving up already-elevated US inflation. The fuel is critical for farmers, construction companies, freight operators ​and more, and government data last week showed its rise was partly behind hefty increases in delivery costs, early-stage food production costs and even toy prices. The political pressure is particularly acute in traditionally Republican Farm Belt states like Iowa ​and Kansas, where rising fuel and fertilizer costs, trade disruptions and weak farm economics have fueled discontent among some of Trump's core supporters. Trump has promoted his diesel measures at campaign rallies across ⁠the region. He signed an executive order onstage in Nebraska allowing red-dyed diesel to be used in highway vehicles and announced $8 billion in new farm aid during a rally in Kansas on Monday. The measures illustrate the trade-offs Trump is accepting in ​pursuit of near-term relief. The new aid adds fresh strain on federal spending, while the Russian fuel move risks helping Moscow finance its war in Ukraine. Pressure on European allies to release emergency stocks, backed by a threat to restrict US diesel ​exports, has created diplomatic friction. 00:00 00:00 “The president tends to discount long-term losses over short-term gain, and I am skeptical if there is any short gain to be had here,” said Chris Borick, a pollster and political scientist at Muhlenberg College in Pennsylvania. The White House attributed high diesel prices to “pre-existing issues,” including years of refinery closures and damage from Russia's war with Ukraine.

Johnson says he warned White House of ‘unintended consequences’ from Russia sanctions waiver - - Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said Sunday that he warned the White House of “unintended consequences” that could stem from waiving sanctions on Russia. President Trump signed an executive order last week waiving sanctions on Russia that were slated to take effect under a legislative package championed by former Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and passed by Congress with overwhelming bipartisan support. The move quickly sparked bipartisan backlash. Asked whether he wants to waive the tariffs or forgo the move, Johnson told Fox News host Larry Kudlow, “Congress voted on this decisively just several weeks ago, and we understand that Putin cannot be trusted.” “He demonstrates that over and over and over,” Johnson said. “So I did talk to several of my colleagues yesterday who had concerns about that. They’re on committees of jurisdiction, like intelligence and foreign affairs, and I didn’t talk to the president yesterday because he and I are both traveling nonstop and we’re on different schedules. But I told the White House team that we need to talk about it, and I think carefully consider the unintended consequences that may ensue from that.” Johnson added that he knows the “president’s evaluating this as he does everything else.” “Look, he has two major objectives, as you know, Larry. Every day he wants to keep America safe, and he wants to bring down the cost of living for every American. He thinks outside the box with creative ideas all the time, and he carefully evaluates those. So I think the right decision will be made here in the end,” Johnson said. Several GOP lawmakers, meanwhile, were quick to bash Trump’s move. “What part of enforcing a law passed 86-11 by the Senate does the President and his advisors not understand? It’s unconscionable that this administration is capitulating to a Russian dictator who illegally invaded Ukraine and butchers innocent civilians every single day,” Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) wrote on the social platform X. Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) wrote on X that the president is “prolonging the war, not ending it.” Trump has defended the move, writing in a Truth Social post that he is “in the process of negotiating Peace in the war between Russia and Ukraine, and don’t want to do anything that will drive, foolishly, Russia away from the bargaining table.”

Trump Decides Not To Add New Sanctions on Russia Under Lindsey Graham Act - President Trump has decided not to impose new sanctions on Russia and tariffs on Russian trading partners under a new law named after the late Senator Lindsey Graham, at least for now. The Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act became law last month and gives Trump the power to add new economic sanctions on Russia and impose 100% tariffs on countries that buy Russian energy, but it also allows the president the ability to waive the sanctions.“I am hereby waiving the application of such sanctions, restrictions, and duties provided for in the Graham Act. I have submitted to the Congress a certification that the issuance of such a waiver at this time is in the national interests of the United States,” Trump said in an Executive Order he signed on Friday.The Lindsey Graham Act also extends existing sanctions on Iran, which were unaffected by Trump’s executive order. Trump had asked lawmakers to include Iran sanctions in the bill because he said it’s what “Lindsey would have wanted.”Trump is facing bipartisan backlash and criticism from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky over his decision to waive the sanctions, and in response he said no one knows what his final decision will be. “A lot of you don’t know what my decision is yet, but we’ll figure it out, and you’ll figure it out,” he told reporters on Saturday. Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested that the president wants 60 days to decide whether to impose the sanctions and tariffs. “I think the president wants to take the 60-day period of time to ​sort of analyze what imposing both sanctions and tariffs will mean to the global economy and even to the US economy,” he said.

Meeks Introduces Legislation to Block Trump’s Russia Diesel Deal - Press Releases - House Foreign Affairs Committee ---- Representative Gregory W. Meeks, Ranking Member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, today introduced the bipartisan Prohibit Corrupt Russia Oil Deals Act to block President Trump’s corrupt deal with Vladimir Putin to purchase and import Russian diesel.The bill prohibits the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) from investing in Russian energy; nullifies the general licenses issued by the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) and prohibits future licenses; and mandates the Trump administration impose sanctions on Russian energy. A copy of the Prohibit Corrupt Russia Oil Deals Act is available here.  “This deal won’t lower costs for the American people, who are already paying for Trump’s failed war of choice in Iran. It will hand Putin millions of dollars to continue slaughtering Ukrainian civilians with impunity,” said Ranking Member Meeks. “At a time when the United States should be increasing pressure on the Kremlin, Donald Trump is cozying up to Putin and striking self-enriching deals instead of standing with Ukraine. This goes against everything the United States stands for. Congress must act. Every Member of Congress who claims to be outraged by this should join in passing this legislation." Representatives William R. Keating [MA-09]; Ami Bera [CA-06]; Dina Titus [NV-01]; Ted Lieu [CA-36]; Jonathan L. Jackson [IL-01]; Jim Costa [CA-21]; Gabe Amo [RI-01]; Kweisi Mfume [MD-07]; Johnny Olszewski Jr. [MD-02]; George Latimer [NY-16]; Julie Johnson [TX-32]; Sarah McBride [DE-00]; Bradley Scott Schneider [IL-10]; Madeleine Dean [PA-04]; Debbie Wasserman Schultz [FL-25]; Steny H. Hoyer [MD-05], and Don Bacon [NE-02].

After Talks With Zelensky in Norway, Witkoff To Meet Putin in St. Petersburg - US envoy Steve Witkoff will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg on Wednesday, a day after holding talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Norway.A US official told Axios that Witkoff will present Putin with an updated proposal to end the war in Ukraine, but the details of that proposal are unclear.The talks in Oslo also included meetings with Finnish President Alexander Stubb, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, and representatives from several other NATO countries. The official speaking to Axios said that Ukraine had “brought forward new ideas and proposals” and that “meaningful progress” was made, but again provided no details. President Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, participated in the talks virtually because he came down with the flu, and he will do the same in the talks between Witkoff and Putin.Zelensky said that he discussed with Witkoff the idea of Ukraine receiving security guarantees similar to NATO’s Article 5, which outlines that an attack on one NATO member is an attack on all. “I am thankful to the American side that they underlined again that it will be strong,” he said.“There are different kinds of security guarantees which are in the paper, in the document, which Steve will share with the Russians. And we will hear his feedback one day after,” Zelensky added.During previous negotiations, Zelensky and his Western backers insisted on deploying NATO troops to Ukraine as part of a peace deal, an idea Moscow had repeatedly rejected.Also on Tuesday, Zelensky said that the US had restored intelligence sharing with Ukraine and that the early warning system for Russian ballistic missile attacks was now working well, though US officials denied the intelligence was ever purposely disrupted.

Putin Tells Witkoff Russia Is Ready To Resume Trilateral Talks With the US and Ukraine - Russian President Vladimir Putin told US envoy Steve Witkoff during a meeting in St. Petersburg on Wednesday that Russia was ready to resume trilateral talks with the US and Ukraine next month.“Our president informed Steve Witkoff that we are ready in principle to resume the above-mentioned trilateral talks around November 10 on the main subject,” said Kremlin aide Yury Ushakov, according to Russia’s TASS news agency. “This topic is about building a security system for Russia and Ukraine.”During Witkoff’s visit, Russia released Stephen Hubbard, a 74-year-old US citizen who was detained by Russian forces in eastern Ukraine in 2022 and held on charges of acting as a foreign mercenary for Ukraine, a move that’s seen as a goodwill gesture toward the Trump administration.“Stephen is on his way back home and will soon be with his family,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social. “The United States, out of respect for President Trump, was not required to give anything in return – an unprecedented situation for Russia. There was no “swap” necessary for this release.” Witkoff’s visit to Russia came after he met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and European officials in Norway to discuss a new proposal to end the war. Details of the proposal are unclear, but Zelensky said that the idea of NATO Article 5-style security  David Ignatius reported that the potential deal being discussed would involve the US and European nations giving Ukraine a guarantee that they would respond militarily if Russia attacked again, an arrangement that Russia would almost certainly not accept. The idea would be to offer Russia economic incentives to get Moscow to make concessions, but Russian officials maintain they won’t back down on their core demands, which include some form of Ukrainian neutrality and Ukraine ceding territory.Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Tuesday that Russia would listen to the US proposals but wouldn’t agree to any concessions. “We’ll see what they propose. If they propose something that benefits us economically and financially then why not? But it should not involve any political concessions on our part, and we also should not expect a political situation to emerge that will favor us in all global affairs. We must rely only on ourselves,” he said.

Fox News host: Russians ‘must be laughing their heads off’ over Witkoff ‘humanitarian’ remark - Fox News host Brian Kilmeade posted a video clip of himself on the social platform X criticizing special envoy Steve Witkoff’s comment calling Russian President Vladimir Putin “a humanitarian.” “The Russians must be laughing their heads off,” Kilmeade said in the video. “That just makes you look naive. A humanitarian? This guy kills his opponents, he arrests journalists … ladies and gentlemen, anyone listening, if you see Vladimir Putin, do not call him a humanitarian,” he continued. Kilmeade’s remarks are in regard to what Witkoff said to Putin in St. Petersburg, Russia, following the release of Stephen Hubbard on Wednesday. “You talk so much about my president, President Trump, being a humanitarian,” Witkoff said to Putin. “You are a humanitarian also, sir, and I salute that.” Hubbard was released Wednesday and has returned to the U.S. after being detained in Russia for nearly four years. He arrived at Lackland Air Force Base in San Antonio early Thursday morning. President Trump said he personally asked the Russian president to release Hubbard in a phone call, and Witkoff traveled to Russia to secure his release. Witkoff’s remarks sparked backlash across the board, with multiple Republicans, including Sen. Thom Tillis (N.C.), criticizing his comment. “Look up the definition of ‘humanitarian.’ What an embarrassing and outrageous thing to say,” Tillis wrote X. “You should go back to Ukraine and ask the families of the children Putin has kidnapped and murdered whether they agree your friend Putin is a ‘humanitarian.’”

Trump says he would be open to trilateral meeting with Putin, Xi - President Trump said Monday he has not yet agreed to a trilateral meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, but he said he is open to it. “I would do it,” Trump told reporters on the White House’s South Lawn before heading to a midterm rally in Kansas. “Not so much on Ukraine because Russia, frankly, has been fine on Ukraine, they haven’t been doing much, and the same with China,” the president continued. “We would have it to talk about weapons and denuclearization.” Trump’s comments came after The Wall Street Journal reported Putin proposed a trilateral meeting to discuss the war in Ukraine on a call with Trump earlier this month. The call reportedly led to the U.S. president announcing he would waive sanctions on Russia to buy diesel from the country. Trump’s move was a part of an effort to lower diesel prices ahead of the midterm elections. Trump also noted the leaders would likely talk about other issues like trade and suggested such a summit would likely be held in China. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha responded to reports about the potential summit, writing it would not be acceptable. “A trilateral meeting between the leaders of Ukraine, the US, and Russia could help end the war sooner. A trilateral meeting between the leaders of Russia, China, and the US would do only the opposite: encourage Putin to continue this war,” Sybiha wrote. Zelensky has lashed out at Trump’s move to waive sanctions on Russia regarding diesel and has said his U.S. counterpart “is on the wrong side of history.” Trump responded to the criticism on Monday, saying the Ukrainian leader does not know what he is talking about. “Maybe it’s time for Zelensky to get someone else to negotiate,” Trump told reporters.

Trump, Putin, and Xi May Hold Trilateral Summit on the Sidelines of APEC in China - -- The US and Russia said on Monday that President Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Chinese President Xi Jinping may hold a trilateral summit next month.Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the potential venue could be the sidelines of the upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, which will be held in Shenzhen, China, on November 18 and November 19.Peskov made the comments when asked about a report from The Wall Street Journal that said Russia had proposed the trilateral summit to discuss a deal to bring an end to the war in Ukraine.“Given that all three heads of state may potentially take part ​in the summit in China, the subject of such a hypothetical meeting was indeed raised. It was raised, but no specific proposals or agreements were discussed or put forward by anyone, ​either regarding the meeting itself or the possible agenda and content of that ​meeting,” Peskov said, according to Reuters.The Journal report said that Putin made the proposal in an October 9 phone call, which came before Trump announced a deal had been reached for the US to purchase Russian diesel. A senior US official told the outlet that Trump hadn’t agreed to the summit but was receptive to the idea, which appeared to be confirmed by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.“There’s been talks of a ​meeting. I don’t know whether it’s been finalized, but the ⁠president has been clear. He’d like the war in Ukraine and ​Russia to end,” Rubio told reporters during a visit to Uzbekistan. Rubio also said that the US wants to see the war end due to the risk of escalation. “We see nothing good coming from this ​war,” he said. “We see a lot of downside to it, including the very ‌real ⁠risk of escalation and spread of this thing… into another country because of a failed sabotage attack, because of drones that are hit with electronic warfare and they wander into a neighboring country.”

China 'Already Preparing' Trilateral Summit With US & Russia, Likely For November: Kremlin --There's lots of talk of big trilateral meetings in the middle of this week, as some major parallel diplomacy is currently happening in St. Petersburg. President Vladimir Putin's meeting with US special presidential envoy Steve Witkoff has wrapped up, but already China is also in the house. Significantly, Chinese Premier Li Qiang is second-highest-ranking official in the country's Communist Party (CCP) hierarchy, under President Xi Jinping. He's meeting with Putin just after the Witkoff summit Putin aide Yury Ushakov has in comments to reporters revealed that China has already begun preparing a trilateral meeting among the leaders of Russia, the US and China.He indicated that could happen on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Shenzhen "if circumstances are favorable." This would be in just under a month, scheduled for November 17-18, 2026.Ushakov said: "Our Chinese friends, who are hosting the APEC summit, will deal or rather are already dealing with its [the trilateral meeting] preparation. And if circumstances are favourable, they, our Chinese friends, will of course include this meeting in the program of events in Shenzhen."Some further details laid out in Ushakov's briefing, via Bloomberg:

• Potential meeting has been worked on at expert level, Ushakov says
• Meeting would require all three leaders to be in same place at same time
• Experts have outlined key topics for potential trilateral meeting at APEC summit
• A single meeting between Putin, Trump and Xi wouldn't be enough to resolve war in Ukraine, Ushakov says.

One journalist and pundit described of Wednesday's remarkable events in Russia's second-largest city: There’s an extraordinary diplomatic coincidence in St. Petersburg today. Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff is arriving to discuss peace in Ukraine, just as Chinese Premier Li Qiang, second only to Xi Jinping in Beijing’s political hierarchy, visits the city.Peter the Great built St. Petersburg as Russia’s window onto the rest of Europe. Three centuries later, it will see Russia, America and China can discuss Europe’s affairs without troubling the EU.

Chinese premier condemns ‘blatant’ US-Israeli aggression against Iran in SCO talks - Chinese Premier Li Qiang has described the US-Israeli military offensive against Iran as “blatant aggression,” reaffirming Beijing’s firm opposition to the illegal assault launched in the midst of negotiations and without United Nations Security Council authorization. The remarks were made during a meeting with Iranian First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref on the sidelines of the 25th meeting of the Council of Heads of Government (Prime Ministers) of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in the Tajik capital of Dushanbe on Monday. Li explicitly termed the February 28 US and Israeli regime actions against the Islamic Republic “blatant aggression” carried out during ongoing talks and without UN Security Council consultation. He underscored Beijing’s clear and resolute stance against Washington and Tel Aviv, its opposition to unilateral American sanctions, the necessity of restoring the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, and China’s full support for Iran’s legitimate rights in international bodies. Chinese state media Xinhua reported that Li stressed the sovereignty and security of all countries must be respected. He called on all parties concerned to choose peace, resume dialogue and negotiations at an early date, and resolve differences through political and diplomatic means to restore regional tranquility. Li noted that China has been making every effort to encourage peace and promote dialogue, in keeping with the spirit of major initiatives and proposals put forward by President Xi Jinping, including four-point proposals on Middle East peace, stability, and common security that have resonated widely. Aref, for his part, said Iran attaches great importance to its relations with China and stands ready to maintain close exchanges at all levels, strengthen mutually beneficial cooperation, and enhance coordination within multilateral frameworks such as the SCO and BRICS in order to further deepen the comprehensive strategic partnership. He appreciated China’s consistent support for multilateralism and the common interests of Global South countries, thanked Beijing for its persistent efforts to promote peace and end conflicts, and expressed hope for an early return to the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding and the restoration of regional peace and stability. The high-level meeting comes amid the continuing fallout from the US-Israeli war of aggression that began on February 28, 2026, an unprovoked aggression widely condemned as a violation of international law and the UN Charter. The Islamabad MoU, reached earlier this year with Pakistani mediation, had provided for an immediate and permanent end to military operations across all fronts, a commitment to refrain from the threat or use of force, and a framework for broader negotiations. Iranian officials have stated that the agreement was subsequently violated by the aggressors. This year also marks the 10th anniversary of the Iran-China comprehensive strategic partnership, with relations remaining steady and resilient despite international pressures. The SCO, of which Iran is a full member, previously issued a statement expressing serious concern over the military strikes on Iran, declaring the use of force unacceptable, and calling for respect for the country’s sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity.

US, Japan Begin Major Military Exercises That Will Focus on Islands Near Taiwan  -The US and Japan kicked off their biennial Keen Sword military exercise on Monday, one of the largest joint drills between the two countries. This year, the exercise will focus on Japan’s southwestern islands, including its westernmost island, Yonaguni, just 68 miles east of Taiwan.Both the US and Japan have deployed new anti-ship missile systems to Yonaguni for the drills, ratcheting up tensions with China. US Marines have been deployed with the Navy-Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System, or NMESIS, which has a range of about 115 miles, putting vessels that patrol the coast of eastern Taiwan in range.According to The Associated Press, Japan has deployed its first long-range Type-25 land-to-ship missile to the island. The Type-25 has a range of about 620 miles, making it capable of reaching mainland China from Yonaguni.The US has also deployed a HIMARS rocket system to Ishigaki, about 150 miles from Taiwan, where the opening ceremony for Keen Sword took place. HIMARS are capable of striking at a distance of up to 190 miles if they’re armed with the ATACMS missiles, but it’s unclear what type of ammunition the system was deployed with.US Forces Japan said in a statement that the drill will involve 45,000 Japanese troops, 11,000 US troops, and forces from Australia, Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand, and the Philippines, along with observers from South Korea and the UK.Song Zhongping, a Chinese military expert, told China’s Global Times earlier this month that the deployment of a new US missile system in Yonaguni increases the risk of miscalculation between the US and China and that Beijing may respond by conducting its own military drills in the area.The South China Morning Post previously reported that China has stepped up coast guard and naval activity east of Taiwan in response to maritime boundary talks announced in May between Japan and the Philippines.

Trumps Venezuela oil deal offers US steep discounts, with little for Caracas: Report  - US taking Venezuelan oil at steep discounts under Trump’s secret deal: Report - The United States has secured discounted Venezuelan oil and a 35% stake in a private oil venture under an agreement giving Washington broad access to the country's oil reserves, with no clear benefits for Venezuela, according to a report. US President Donald Trump announced the deal in late August, touting it as the “biggest oil deal in world history.” It was signed on behalf of Washington by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and War Secretary Pete Hegseth. The full text of the agreement remained closely guarded until US investigative news outlet ProPublica reviewed a copy. According to the report, the 18-page agreement gives Washington the right to buy 20% of the oil produced by North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP) at $30 a barrel, well below recent market prices. The deal also grants the US priority to purchase the company’s remaining output for 50 years and the right to buy its entire supply in a national emergency. Under the agreement, the US government is acquiring a 35% stake in Betancourt’s firm, NABEP, through the purchase of shares in its Barbados-registered parent company. The venture would be overseen by a seven-member board for an initial 15-year term, with a majority of its members required to be US citizens. The agreement does not require any Venezuelan government representation on the board. The controversial deal’s main private-sector partner is Venezuelan billionaire Alejandro Betancourt, whose business dealings have faced money-laundering investigations in several countries. Although the White House has said the deal could bring Venezuela an "estimated $200 billion in royalties and tax payments," the agreement does not guarantee those payments. Marked as a sensitive government document, the agreement also contains a confidentiality clause restricting the company from disclosing its existence and terms. The White House has defended the arrangement, saying it would help "stabilize Venezuela’s economy and deliver lasting benefits to both countries." White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers said, “This historic deal marks a major step toward stabilizing Venezuela’s economy after years of hyperinflation and almost no new investment, while more than doubling the United States’ oil reserves.” Former US diplomats and congressional staff cited by ProPublica said questions could intensify if Democrats gain control of one or both chambers of Congress in the midterm elections, particularly over the choice of Betancourt and the deal’s terms. The United States abducted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, during a large-scale military operation in early January and transferred them to the US to face "criminal charges." US-Venezuela oil deal opens new chapter in long history of US interventionism in Latin America: Journalist Related Story US-Venezuela oil deal opens new chapter in long history of US interventionism in Latin America: Journalist Trump subsequently said Washington would play a central role in running the country indefinitely until a formal transition of power can take place. He also said that US oil companies would enter the country to revive its oil industry. “We’re going to take back the oil that, frankly, we should have taken back a long time ago,” Trump said at the time, adding that the United States would recoup the costs of its operation from Venezuela’s oil wealth. Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, estimated at more than 300 billion barrels. Much of the oil lies in the Orinoco Oil Belt and consists of heavy, sulfur-rich crude that is more difficult and costly to extract and refine than lighter grades. Tapping these reserves requires substantial investment and specialized technology, making Venezuela’s petroleum wealth both a major strategic asset and a costly undertaking. Despite its vast reserves, Venezuela was producing only about 1.25 million barrels of oil per day under Maduro, well below its potential after years of underinvestment and US sanctions.

Democratic lawmaker says ICE officers broke US citizen’s arm - Rep. Robert Garcia (D-Calif.) said that Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers broke an American citizen’s arm over the weekend. “ICE agents brutally attacked and broke the arm of a North Long Beach resident and U.S. citizen. The videos are horrific and should concern not just our community but the country,” Garcia said in a Sunday post on the social platform X. “I’m proud of the neighbors who documented and stood up for the family being terrorized by ICE. Donald Trump and his inhumane and illegal deportation machine must be stopped. Long Beach stands with our community and our immigrant families. ICE is not welcome in Long Beach. Abolish ICE,” the congressman added. In a separate press conference, the California Democrat said the incident occurred over the weekend. Garcia’s post comes after multiple notable incidents in which federal immigration authorities have wounded and killed others during the second Trump administration, both citizen and noncitizen alike. In January, federal immigration authorities fatally shot two U.S. citizens in Minneapolis, Alex Pretti and Renee Good. Their deaths supercharged already intense backlash toward the Trump administration’s immigration agenda. Earlier this month, an ICE officer shot and wounded a man in New York City. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said at the time that the man had a previous criminal conviction on grand larceny and a number of prior arrests. The Hill has reached out to the White House and ICE for comment.

Donald Trump, JD Vance blame immigration for French riots -- President Trump Donald Trump and Vice President Vance are placing the blame on immigration for the riots in France that grew violent over the weekend. “The migrants have taken over France,” Trump wrote Monday morning on Truth Social. “They must CLOSE THE BORDERS, FAST!” Vance over the weekend said, “Western liberals imported the third world into France and other countries in the name of diversity and compassion.” “They ignored fundamental questions of assimilation and compatibility. They were told it would lead to this and they didn’t listen,” he wrote in a social media post that reposted a video of a French building burning. “I pray that France, a beautiful country of amazing people, will stop this madness before more of its landmarks burn,” he continued. ”And I hope Americans are paying attention. This is the future congressional Democrats seek for your country.” Demonstrations that began with students protesting deteriorating schools and teacher shortages snowballed into protests for a multitude of issues including cost-of-living and anger toward French President Emmanuel Macron. They came to a head over the weekend, turning violent as some half-million people took the streets. Some masked-clad people battled with police while setting cars and buildings on fire. While French officials haven’t mentioned immigration as a factor in the demonstrations or riots, they have blamed a left-leaning party. Macron has said those who have tried “to bring down the republic will be held accountable.” French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu on Monday accused the “ultra-left movement” of “orchestrating profound disorder in the country leading up to the presidential election,” according to reports. France has its presidential election in April 2027. Marine Le Pen has appeared to be the front-runner. She is the candidate for the National Rally, France’s far-right political party. Trump and Vance have both publicly supported Le Pen, who has advocated for the deportation of immigrants who illegally entered France.

The Breakout – Permitting Reform Bill Aims to Break the Logjam for Energy Infrastructure Projects | RBN Energy -Building any type of energy infrastructure can be a heavy lift, but getting permission to do it can take even longer. Years of environmental reviews, agency coordination and courtroom battles have delayed projects and driven up costs. Now, Congress is considering another permitting overhaul that could shorten reviews, curb legal uncertainty and give all kinds of energy-related projects a boost. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at the major themes of the permitting reform bill being considered by Congress, how it would change the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), and how it could make it easier to build or expand oil and gas pipelines.The permitting process for major energy projects is a well-known problem that we’ve written about extensively over the years. The issue has slowed a number of oil- or gas-related projects, most famously the long-delayed Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP), while also impacting the development process for everything from long-distance transmission lines and large-scale wind and solar projects to the production of metals and critical minerals essential for many energy projects. So, if it has taken a decade or more to get final approval for some projects, with MVP even requiring an act of Congress, it shouldn’t be a great surprise that reforms to the permitting process itself would be slow moving too.Changes to the permitting process came with 2023’s Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA), which suspended the federal debt ceiling through January 1, 2025, but also addressed immediate priorities in federal permitting for energy and infrastructure projects and expedited MVP’s completion. Most importantly for our discussion today, it reformed the way NEPA operates, streamlining the review process through clearer assessment thresholds, designated lead agencies, applicant-prepared documents, deadlines, page limits, consolidated analyses and broader categorical exclusions, while preserving agency oversight and public comment procedures. (Some changes were also included in 2025’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act.) Helpful as those changes may be, they were only the first steps toward more significant reforms. As we wrote in Rescue Me, the FRA’s passage appeared at the time as if it might clear a path for additional legislation. That has yet to happen, but that could be changing soon. The Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 (BAAJA) was introduced in the Senate in September and a procedural vote is expected sometime after the midterm elections on November 3. It appears to have strong bipartisan support in the Senate, although passage in the narrowly divided House — required for the bill to move forward — seems less certain. The White House has said it supports the bill, although its treatment of wind and solar projects has been a major point of contention with Democrats in Congress. In a move that could complicate the bill’s passage, the Trump administration asked a federal court on October 9 to reassess the 2023 approval of the 704-MW Revolution Wind Project, which is expected to begin full commercial operation later this year. The project, located off the Rhode Island coast, began sending power to the grid in March and the last of its 65 turbines was installed in September.The BAAJA includes a number of significant changes related to NEPA (see Figure 1 below), including making more projects exempt from it, reducing the amount of duplicative analysis, doing more coordinated reviews, expressly codifying that NEPA is defined as a procedural process without mandating specific environmental outcomes, and broadening the use of categorical exclusions. A categorical exclusion is a class of actions that a federal agency has determined do not have a significant effect on the human environment and do not normally require an Environmental Assessment (EA) or Environmental Impact Statement (EIS).  Figure 1. Proposed NEPA Changes Under Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act.  In addition to the NEPA reforms, the bill includes two other significant changes to the permitting process:

Clinton-Nominated Judge Says DOGE Illegally Accessed Data On Government Workers | - A federal judge ruled on Oct. 20 that a department aimed at making the government more efficient should not have been granted access to sensitive federal employee data. Granting Department of Governmental Efficiency (DOGE) personnel access to government employee data contained in Office of Personnel Management systems violated the Privacy Act, which bars certain record disclosures and requires safeguards when disclosing other records, U.S. District Judge Denise Cote said in a 39-page ruling that granted plaintiffs final judgment. "The defendants barely defend its legality, relying instead on what has happened since to argue that the case is moot and that prospective relief is unnecessary," wrote Cote, a judge for the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York. Department of Justice lawyers had argued in court filings that DOGE agents needed access to the records as part of an effort to modernize government systems. The government did not explain why the modernization efforts required access to the sensitive records containing personally identifiable information, according to Cote. Lawyers had also said that the agents were granted access in case they needed the data later, but the government has never linked the access to any of the agents' duties, the ruling stated. The Department of Justice did not respond to a request for comment by publication time. President Donald Trump established DOGE shortly after taking office in 2025, and DOGE employees worked with various agencies to streamline operations. Cote in June 2025 entered a preliminary injunction blocking the department from accessing federal employee records as the case proceeded, finding violations of the Privacy Act. Professional groups, including the Association of Administrative Law Judges, brought the case and said DOGE's disclosure of employee personal data was illegal. Twenty DOGE employees received access to Office of Personnel Management (OPM) systems from Jan. 20, 2025, to March 6, 2025, according to court documents. Some worked for OPM, but others received paychecks from other agencies. Certain DOGE personnel had access to the systems through September 2025. Only one of the agents remains at the office, according to the government, and he does not have access to systems containing personal employee data. DOGE itself shut down in July 2026. The Office of Personnel Management has updated its disclosure policies, including specifying that only office employees and contractors, not detailees, can access those systems. Cote said the updates were admirable but seemed to track with deadlines in the litigation. She also said the case was about misconduct stemming from "the failure of particular individuals," not deficient procedures. Cote said it's unclear whether any relief is necessary at this juncture, given the developments surrounding DOGE and the office. She said she would be asking the parties to offer views on what relief, if any, is appropriate. "In the meantime, the parties are encouraged to confer and explore whether they can reach an agreement on an appropriate resolution," she said.

FEMA tells states to handle disasters on their own - The Trump administration’s disaster chief told state officials Tuesday they must increase their financial reserves and emergency capabilities to handle most disasters on their own, without federal help. Federal Emergency Management Agency Administrator Cameron Hamilton gave unprecedented detail at a conference in Little Rock, Arkansas, about the administration’s long-planned shift of disaster responsibilities to states. “Every state must have the appropriate financial reserves” and other abilities “to ensure that recovery efforts can start immediately and not necessarily be held up simply because of the federal [disaster] declaration process,” Hamilton said, according to a recording of his remarks obtained by POLITICO. “A future that I hope we would shoot for is one where we wouldn’t require as many disasters because the capability of states is so high and so substantial,” Hamilton added, referring to presidential authorizations of federal disaster aid. FEMA said in a statement to POLITICO that the agency’s “primary focus is on empowering communities to lead and executive disaster response and recovery.” “FEMA is not a first responder,” an agency spokesperson said, “but rather a force multiplier supporting states, tribes and local governments to ensure rapid and effective recovery when warranted and where needed.   Hamilton’s remarks at the National Emergency Management Association’s annual conference add detail to his Oct. 15 internal memo — reported by POLITICO — which said FEMA will “strengthen state and local capacity.”The agency will face substantial challenges — both logistically and politically — preparing states to take a lead role in disaster prevention and recovery.A FEMA report released Friday found that state disaster agencies “are typically understaffed and underfunded” and that many agencies are heavily dependent on federal funding.“There are many states with [minuscule] emergency management offices and budgets. There are states with slim rainy-day funds and no capacity to make up for a lack of federal disaster recovery funds — without RAISING TAXES!” Eric Holdeman, a longtime emergency management official, wrote on LinkedIn on Monday in response to Hamilton’s memo. “Reducing the number of federal disaster declarations will be difficult and its implementation will be impossible! All Presidents, not just the one we have today, will ignore such a policy when it becomes politically expedient to do so,” added Holdeman, a former emergency management director in King County, Washington, which includes Seattle. The Trump administration plans to launch “national mutual aid,” whereby states help each other recover from damaging storms, floods, wildfires and other events, Hamilton told state emergency management leaders. “You will also see us asking for greater alleviation and waiving of federal environmental and historical preservation requirements — things that add layers of bureaucracy,” Hamilton said, referring to reviews of FEMA-funded rebuilding projects. POLITICO obtained a recording of the speech from someone at the private conference. President Donald Trump threatened to abolish FEMA early in his current term and has since called for states to take more financial responsibility. The administration has not publicly announced any changes and has continued to approve disaster aid for weather-related events. Hamilton told the conference attendees that changes could begin “in the next six months.” Hamilton said states that avoid federal aid might begin disaster recovery more quickly. States could start disaster cleanup and repairs “much faster” if they don’t have to submit a detailed aid application to FEMA and await a decision, which can take weeks or months. Watch: The Conversation Can Angie Nixon prove Democrats can win in Florida? “Sometimes what we find is a potential slowing down the [recovery] process to ensure that a declaration comes through,” Hamilton said. Hamilton said FEMA will focus increasingly on “reducing risk and building capacity across the nation” so that disasters cause less damage and states are better-equipped. “Federal dollars should be building greater capability, not creating greater dependency,” Hamilton added.

Judge questions federal government over East Potomac renovation plan amid Donald Trump attacks - A federal judge on Monday pressed the Trump administration about President Trump’s plan to shut down and renovate East Potomac Park next month despite a previous court order barring any future work at the property while a lawsuit to stop it plays out. Trump in a Truth Social post just minutes before Monday’s hearing in Washington court began argued that his administration does not need approval from the court to move ahead with the controversial redevelopment, which includes a total revamp of East Potomac Golf Links and the erasure of miles of walking and biking trails on the island. “I don’t know what to do when I keep getting different stories from the government,” U.S. District Judge Ana Reyes said during the hearing. Jessica Bowron, the acting director of the National Park Service (NPS), testified earlier Monday that she was not aware of plans to close the course in mid-November as the president indicated would happen. Reyes, a Biden appointee, later asked a Justice Department lawyer whether she ought to “believe” DOJ lawyers or Trump. The president attacked U.S. District Judge Ana Reyes directly in a separate social media post over the weekend, calling her “insane,” while attorneys for the Department of Justice separately moved for her to recuse herself from presiding over a lawsuit brought by local preservationist groups seeking to halt the work.   Reyes at a hearing last week scolded lawyers for the federal government, which carried out massive tree culling and excavating at the Hains Point location without providing what the judge said was proper notice.  On Monday, she again pressed Department of the Interior officials about their knowledge of plans for the historic site, which Trump said in his social media posts were already in place and set to begin on Nov. 15 when the current golf courses there would be closed.  “There is no universe in which all of this just coincidentally happened at the same time,” Reyes said more than an hour into the proceedings. Gregory Wischer, the deputy chief of staff for the Department of the Interior, testified that he learned of the “tree management plan” on Oct. 5, and it was part of a slate of D.C. beautification projects being undertaken by the administration.    The lawsuit brought by the D.C. Preservation League and individual golfers, challenges the Trump administration’s plan to overhaul the historic golf courses, which sit on National Park Service land, as unlawful.   Lawyers for the plaintiffs wrote in an Oct. 14 motion that the tree-razing operation was a “classic” example of the government attempting to bypass the full environmental review process by completing the project in smaller segments.  East Potomac is used daily by thousands of golfers, bikers and joggers and is seen as a rare affordable option catering to junior and beginner golfers.   Trump’s plans include an 18-hole championship-style facility capable of hosting professional tournaments and designed by leading golf course architect Tom Fazio.   The president over the weekend described current playing conditions at East Potomac as “dangerous” and argued his redevelopment push would inject millions of dollars into the local D.C. community.  Workers removed several hundred trees from the park last weekend as part of what federal officials described as a precursor to restoring the course to its historic design and in line with a 2019 Cultural Landscape Report.“This plan isn’t just about safety,” Kevin Griess, the superintendent for National Mall and Memorial Parks in the NPS, testified. “It’s about the restoration of the park to its original historic state of a links golf course.”  Asked by Reyes on Monday whether there were any “falling, dangerous and disease-infested trees” remaining on the course, Griess testified that there may have been a “few” prior to last Saturday’s work, but he was unsure about the current situation.  Reyes is weighing a possible extension to a temporary restraining order that barred further tree cutting work at East Potomac and required the government to give advanced notice.  She signaled on Monday that any forthcoming order would likely still be narrowly tailored to that effect, saying she was not yet inclined to “stop the plan altogether.”“I don’t think we’re there yet,” the judge said. The Justice Department has contended in court filings that the plaintiffs do not have standing to sue simply because they “dislike the possibility of an East Potomac renovation and redesign.” Mark Samburg, representing the golfers, countered on Monday that his clients are not merely challenging the redesign but the “decision to destroy” the existing course.

Trump plans to fast-track arch despite legal challenge --The Trump administration is poised to swiftly begin construction on a contested triumphal arch in early November, according to a notice filed Wednesday in federal court.The move would significantly accelerate the timeline to build the massive monument despite a federal lawsuit to stop it.The Justice Department told the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia that construction is contingent on the National Capital Planning Commission, a board stacked with Trump officials and supporters, approving the 250-foot-tall monument when it meets on Nov. 5.Construction would begin that same day, DOJ told the court, if the Interior Department and the National Park Service also provide same-day authorization.The whiplash timeline suggests the arch, a key piece in Trump’s effort to leave an architectural legacy in Washington, would move forward despite a court case on whether the White House has authority to build in that location and before a new Congress in January that could be more hostile to the administration if Democrats win more seats.The case is one of several that has pitted Trump’s Washington makeover against federal judges and angered Democrats in Congress. In another instance the administration suddenly demolished the White House East Wing, a move which a federal judge later said was likely improper but irreparable. The court allowed construction to move forward on the president’s ballroom to replace the former East Wing.The administration also battled a federal judge earlier this month over felling more than 400 trees in East Potomac Park on short notice to potentially support the president’s proposed renovation of a public golf course. Sometimes dubbed Independence Arch, the enormous monument would tower above the Lincoln Memorial across the Potomac River, gleaming with gold detail and topped by a 60-foot winged statue.Vietnam veterans sued to block the arch because it would be located on land protected by federal law and requires congressional approval to build. The White House has countered that a 1925 congressional plan on building two columns in that location grants them authority.A Virginia county has also sued to block the arch, arguing the Trump administration’s rapid pace on the development has violated required environmental reviews.Wednesday’s notice isn’t the first time the administration has said construction was imminent. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said last month that arch construction was poised to start, but the activity was actually pre-construction surveys of the location of the proposed monument.Critics of the arch slammed the announcement Thursday.“What better way to celebrate the nation’s 250th anniversary than to shut down the legally required review process, ignore some 100,000 negative public comments, and fast track the construction of a bloated and deeply unpopular monument that the president claims is for him,” said Charles Birnbaum, president and CEO of The Cultural Landscape Foundation.The National Capital Planning Commission will vet the arch’s design when it meets Nov. 5.The panel has in recent months weighed several concerns over the arch brought by preservationists, historians and commission staff, including that it may violate the city’s limits on building height. It’s also discussed pedestrian safety to reach the arch, negative impacts on nearby monuments and snarled traffic along the busy thoroughfare. Trump officials leading the NPCA have championed the arch as a testament to the nation’s history that must move forward.

Feds Using DNA To Probe Ilhan Omar 'Married Her Brother' Claim, Eye Conspiracy Charge: Report   - Federal prosecutors plan to use DNA evidence in their criminal investigation of Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), people familiar with the probe told the New York Post on Monday. One source said the DNA is critical to proving the long-running allegation that Omar's 2009 marriage to Ahmed Nur Said Elmi was a marriage to her brother, made so he could get a green card he never received. Omar has denied the claim since 2016, no charges have been filed, and the Justice Department has not confirmed any DNA evidence. The DNA report is the latest turn in a probe that went public a week ago, when Homeland Security Investigations agents searched Omar's Washington home on Oct. 12. Agents also seized Omar's phone, and more than a dozen grand jury subpoenas have gone out, some to her relatives, a source told the Associated Press. The grand jury is collecting evidence in Minnesota, where the U.S. Attorney's Office opened the case. Omar called the search an "attempt to target political enemies and weaponize federal law enforcement" and said, "I will not be silenced."The Post's sources did not say whether the DNA was collected before or after the search. One of them pushed back on earlier reports that investigators went "dumpster diving" for swabs of Omar, Elmi or family members. Reporter Leland Vittert had said on Saturday that agents had done just that, before the raid:Two other sources told the Post that the search, the DNA and other evidence give prosecutors a solid basis to bring a charge of conspiracy to commit immigration fraud before a grand jury. A conspiracy charge would let prosecutors allege overt acts that fall outside the statute of limitations, former federal prosecutor Neama Rahmani told the Post. He said prosecutors could pursue a conspiracy case that would likely fall within a 10-year limit, or a civil case, which has none, and that the warrant would not have been executed nless it had "come from the highest levels of the DOJ." That fits the warrant. A person familiar with the document told The Washington Post that it lists potential charges of conspiracy, immigration fraud and false statements. Investigators are also looking at whether Omar or her father, Nur Omar Mohamed, misstated her birth date on immigration paperwork so she could derive citizenship through him when he naturalized in 2000. Rahmani called her late father "an unindicted co-conspirator." The Justice Department has not released the affidavit.Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin, whose department's agents carried out the search, said on Oct. 16 that "multiple other warrants" were served the same day. "We had a judge sign it, and we expect to be able to take the case to a grand jury," he told the Charlie Kirk Show, according to CBS News.The marriage and the birth-date theory lead to different places. A marriage-fraud conviction would not threaten Omar's own citizenship the way a false-statements case would, the New York Post noted, and stripping the citizenship of a sitting member of Congress would be unprecedented. Border czar Tom Homan said over the weekend that the government has built "a strong case" that could lead the administration to seek denaturalization. As we reported, the Wall Street Journal had already said officials wanted to revoke her citizenship and deport her, and agents reportedly secured her passport in the search.D.C. U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro, whose office is separately examining Omar's House financial disclosures, told Fox News that "that judge would not have signed that warrant unless there was probable cause." Those disclosures cut Omar's reported net worth by tens of millions of dollars in a year, which the Post attributed to an unexplained accounting "discrepancy."Omar's lawyers, Amy Jeffress and Joshua Matz, answered last week with a letter to the Justice Department demanding the "immediate return" of everything seized. They wrote that agents ignored a magistrate judge's "special requests" for carrying out the search and broke longstanding DOJ policy by acting so close to an election, and that President Trump has "made no secret" of wanting to target her. A DOJ spokesperson called the letter "riddled with false allegations and inaccuracies" and said leaking it was "a publicity play." Rep. Jamie Raskin, the ranking Democrat on House Judiciary, had already called the search "blatant political intimidation," coming 22 days before the Nov. 3 election. Former federal prosecutor Jim Trusty told Fox News the warrant shows "at least probable cause," but that it is "a long way off from proving a case at trial."The marriage record at the heart of the DNA claim is tangled. Omar and Elmi divorced in 2017, and she gave birth to her third child while legally married to him. Her marriage to Ahmed Hirsi was not legally entered into until after her divorce from Elmi was finalized, the Post reported, although the two had a Muslim ceremony in 2002. She filed joint taxes with Hirsi in 2014 and 2015 while still legally married to Elmi, from whom she had separated in 2011. Elmi, who lives in the UK, applied for a marriage-based green card and withdrew it in 2019 when immigration officials asked for more evidence, according to The Washington Post, which also quoted a former immigration official saying the brother claim was investigated during Trump's first term without enough evidence to go forward. Omar divorced Hirsi in 2019 and married political consultant Tim Mynett.We reported last week that her staff asked Minnesota's legislative library in 2019 to change her birth year, and that Mynett snapped at a reporter over rumors she had fled the country. Mynett has said only that his wife "came here when she was 12 years old as a child war refugee." Her lawyers say there is "no legitimate basis for any suggestion that she has violated any law concerning her citizenship status."

Donald Trump demands Ilhan Omar resign over fake name allegations President Trump called on Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) to “IMMEDIATELY resign” and accused her of using a fake name in a Truth Social post on Thursday evening. “Please inform the Speaker of the House of Representatives, James Michael Johnson, that the Dumocrat Party has just conceded her seat,” Trump wrote. “Ilhan Nur Said Elmi, her real name, has openly admitted to FRAUD, and she will not be legally allowed to be a Member of this August Body from this point forth.” In a Wednesday court filing a week after federal agents conducted a search warrant of Omar’s home in Washington, D.C., federal prosecutors referred to the Minnesota Democrat as “Congresswoman Ilhan Nur Said Elmi” without explanation. Jeanine Pirro, the U.S. attorney in Washington, D.C., suggested Omar’s name could be part of a federal probe into the lawmaker, during an appearance on Fox News on Thursday.   “If you have citizenship in this country, your derivative citizenship, or your naturalization, your application, will turn on precise information, and you have an obligation to report that precise information,” she said. “So the question is, who is Ilhan Omar, and has she followed all of the laws as it relates to naturalization and immigration.”   The Trump administration is investigating the Somali-born lawmaker for alleged immigration fraud — an accusation she has repeatedly denied. Omar has accused the president of waging a “campaign of political intimidation” against her for years. During an interview with MS NOW’s Chris Hayes on Wednesday, Omar said she would have to move out of her D.C. apartment because of the threats she has received after the federal search, in which she said agents seized 17 items. The Democratic lawmaker told Hayes she was “confident” that she had done nothing wrong. “I am a person of enormous faith,” she said. “And I know that … if I continue to live my truth, if I continue to fight for the right things, if I continue to stand up to bullies and people who are carrying out ungodly corruption, I’m going to be OK.” On Thursday evening, Trump again invoked a conspiracy theory platformed by far-right commentators that Omar had married her brother, claiming they had the same last name. Omar called the accusation “insane” during her interview with MS NOW this week. The president claimed in his Truth Social post that the Democrat replied to the question about whether she married her brother by saying, “Not to my knowledge.” Trump added, “In other words, she somehow didn’t know?” In the interview, the lawmaker made the statement after Hayes pressed her further about whether she was “related to him at all.” The Democrat laughed before adding, “Not to my knowledge.” Trump also led calls for her removal from Congress during an Iowa rally on Thursday. “If you get sworn in with a false name, I would imagine that’s pretty tough to remain,” he said, eliciting chants of “Lock her up” from the crowd. This is not the first time the president has demanded Omar resign. During his first term, Trump requested the Democrat be removed from Congress and be stripped from her congressional committees for comments he called antisemitic.

Trump calls on New Mexico to change its name to ‘New America’ - President Trump called on New Mexico to change its name to “New America” following his decision to alter the names of the Gulf of Mexico and Lake Ontario to include “America.” “New Mexico should immediately change its name to New America. We are not Mexico, we are the United States of America,” the president wrote Monday on Truth Social. “The name would add great value and prestige to the State! Home Values and Incomes would rise, and you would be even prouder while saluting our beautiful American Flag!” “Maybe even the Crooked Elections, that New Mexico is known for, would become honest again,” he added. This marked another move by Trump to rename the state after he shared a map to Truth Social last month showing a large “X” over “Mexico” in the state’s name, with the word “America” written below it. The official White House account reposted the image to social platform X. Sen. Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.) wrote on social media Monday that “New Mexico’s name dates back hundreds of years, long before the United States even existed. It carries generations of history, culture, and rich traditions that continue to shape who we are.” “We are New Mexicans. We’re proud of our name, proud of our home, and we’re keeping both. Long after Donald Trump is out of office, we’ll still be New Mexico,” he continued. Deb Haaland, the Democratic candidate in New Mexico’s gubernatorial race who previously served as Interior secretary under former President Biden, told Trump on social media that he “should be focused on ending this war, stopping these tariffs, and making things less expensive–not renaming our state.” Trump also passed an executive order in August seeking to change Lake Ontario’s name to “Lake America” amid his tariff war with Canada Seneca Nation President J. Conrad Seneca at the time called on Trump to rescind the order, saying the renaming violated the terms of the 1794 Treaty of Canandaigua, which laid out the Seneca Nation’s boundaries as “beginning on Lake Ontario.” Trump also said he was “thinking of” renaming the Atlantic or Pacific Ocean while at a campaign rally in Tennessee earlier this month.

Texas lawyer Thomas J. Henry endorses James Talarico in Senate race -  One of Texas’s most prominent personal injury lawyers has endorsed state Rep. James Talarico (D) in the Lone Star State’s widely watched Senate race. Thomas J. Henry, a fixture of Texas TV ads and billboards, posted a video to the social platform X on Thursday announcing he would support Talarico’s candidacy.

El-Sayed: Ohio State owes Vance a refund - -- Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed brought up a Midwestern college rivalry in an attack against Vice President Vance. During a recent town hall on CBS News, Vance said that he had seen “what Abdul El-Sayed says about the war in Iran.” “I see he — criticizing decisions that the president has made, the military’s made. But fundamentally, we are where we are, and you have to — in my view, I’d like to know, what is Abdul El-Sayed’s solution for the problem that we have right now?” Vance added. CNN’s Laura Coates asked El-Sayed about Vance’s comments in a Sunday night interview, to which the Michigan Democrat responded, “first of all, Ohio State [University] owes that boy a refund, because he clearly didn’t get anything from his education there.” “And, the thing we should not have done is started the war in the first place. In fact, we were in a state of peace with the potential for nuclear proliferation to be contained under the JCPOA under President Obama,” El-Sayed added, referencing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the nuclear deal the Obama administration struck with Iran. Vance attended Ohio State University for his undergraduate degree, while El-Sayed went to the University of Michigan for his. The two Midwestern schools have a notably fierce rivalry. El-Sayed is facing former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) in the race for a Senate seat in the Wolverine State, a notable swing state in the battle for the midterms this year. President Trump won Michigan in the 2024 presidential election. The Cook Political Report rates the Rogers and El-Sayed race as a “toss-up,” but the electoral environment is quite favorable for Democrats this year, with issues like concern around energy costs, the cost of living, Trump’s approval rating and the war in Iran weighing on the GOP as Election Day inches closer.

Trump backs controversial Ohio ad, pouring fuel on midterm campaign fires - President Trump intensified the furor over a deeply controversial political ad on Thursday, backing the decision by the GOP’s gubernatorial candidate in Ohio, Vivek Ramaswamy, to run the commercial. In doing so, Trump poured fresh fuel on a bitter midterm campaign that has seen the president deride the Democratic candidate for Senate in Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed, as a “jihadist”; use an anti-trans slur against Annie Andrews, the Democratic Senate candidate in South Carolina; and habitually refer to James Talarico, the Democratic Senate candidate in Texas, as “Talafreako.” Trump has also referred to El-Sayed by his middle name, Mohamed, in a way that critics contend is a clear appeal to Islamophobia. The tactic has drawn parallels with Trump’s long record of seeking to “other” former President Obama by repeatedly invoking his middle name, Hussein. Trump has shot back over El-Sayed, contending that, as president, “I can call him whatever the hell I want.” At a Wednesday rally in South Carolina, Trump again used an anti-trans slur against Andrews, though Andrews is not trans. Asked to respond to general criticism of Trump’s campaign trail rhetoric, White House spokesperson Davis Ingle told this column via email: “President Trump doesn’t care about being politically correct, he cares about Making America Great Again. The American people love how authentic, transparent, and effective the President is, which is why he won in a massive landslide victory on November 5, 2024.” Ingle also contended that, in relation to the midterms, the choice facing voters is between “doubling down on President Trump’s winning, commonsense agenda or the Democrats’ extreme liberal policies and obstruction.” For the moment, however, it is the Ramaswamy ad that is dominating the national political conversation. The ad centers on Donna Arthur, the long-estranged mother of Ramaswamy’s Democratic opponent, Amy Acton. In Acton’s telling, an extremely troubled childhood included repeated sexual abuse by her stepfather. Her stepfather, Cledith Arthur, was charged for sexual conduct with a minor and initially pleaded not guilty. He later fled the state with Acton’s mother before he could face a full trial. He died in 2004. In the ad, Arthur calls her daughter a “liar” with a “serious problem.”The commercial has caused a firestorm. Even though family members have sometimes appeared in negative political ads before, it’s a rare occurrence — and none has had the deeply traumatic backstory of the Acton matter.  Several Republicans have been critical of the ad, including Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine.  DeWine, who is leaving office because he is term-limited, said running the ad was “wrong” and called the commercial “deeply troubling.” Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio), who is in a tight race with Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown, has said he would not have run the ad. Former Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R) also condemned the ad, saying during an MS NOW interview on Thursday that “there is nothing appropriate” about the commercial.

Ramaswamy’s last-ditch attack shows signs of backfiring - Democrat Amy Acton‘s chances of flipping the Ohio governor’s race seem to have received a boost as backlash to Republican Vivek Ramaswamy‘s controversial ad featuring her estranged mother keeps growing. Ramaswamy has doubled down in defending the ad, which depicts Acton’s birth mother, Donna Arthur, calling her daughter a “liar” and saying she needs “help” as part of a message urging Ohioans to vote against her. Acton’s campaign and Ramaswamy critics have noted that Acton hasn’t been in touch with her mother since she was 12 years old, after her stepfather was arrested and charged with raping Acton. Arthur remained married to the stepfather, and Acton was removed from her mother’s care. Election forecaster Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted its rating of the race Thursday from “Toss-up” to “Leans Democratic.” In its analysis explaining the move, the forecaster pointed to a comment from veteran Republican pollster Frank Luntz, who called it a “Hail Mary” from Ramaswamy. Luntz said sometimes these types of moves work. “However, this seems like an awfully risky and desperate move for Ramaswamy, who has already thrown the kitchen sink at Acton yet appears to be behind,” Sabato’s Crystal Ball said in its analysis. The controversy has fueled widespread backlash from Democrats and divided Republicans, with some denouncing the ad and others calling on him to continue. President Trump weighed in on the ad Thursday, urging Ramaswamy to “keep it up” in a post on Truth Social. “Frankly, anybody whose mother spoke about a daughter in that way would normally lead to the daughter being precluded from serving in Office, let alone the Office of Governor,” he wrote. That echoes similar comments on Wednesday from Vice President Vance, who said he was “disgusted” by Republicans who have broken with Ramaswamy to call for the ad to be scrapped.

Critical flaw found by AI puts 70% of world’s websites at risk - A critical vulnerability in PHP, an open-source programming language that’s used in around 70% of all websites, forced prominent sites to go dark Wednesday as operators scrambled to patch their systems. The security issue was first discovered two months ago by Calif, an AI security firm. The company alerted OpenAI, which has assembled a coalition to help check and fix the flaw. If left unpatched, warned the UK’s National Cyber Security Centre, attackers could take over and run code on any web server running PHP.“Given the severity of these flaws and PHP’s widespread use, we consider this one of the most impactful security issues in recent memory,” OpenAI said in a blog addressing the exploit. “It highlights how AI can uncover security flaws with internet-scale impact, but the same capabilities can also help attackers rapidly develop offensive tools and exploits.”Or as Thai Duong, the CEO of Calif, put it in an interview with the Wall Street Journal: “Some dude on Twitter could take the patches and run AI against it and post some exploit script. All hell will break loose.” Microsoft, Wikipedia, Wordpress, Mozilla and MIT all use PHP in some fashion, as do numerous government websites.According to Reuters, Dutch, Finnish and French government agencies took their websites down Wednesday to deal with the flaw, while cybersecurity agencies in Europe, Australia, Japan and Britain similarly urged anyone running PHP to immediately take their websites offline.

The internet just stopped working properly – here's why -- Much of the Internet has just broken – highlighting once again how vast parts of the web depend on a relatively small number of companies.The latest outage took down online bank Revolut, leaving its customers unable to even make payments with their cards, as well as HSBC, Lloyds Bank, DPD and others. Customers at each of those companies began to report problems on Tuesday morning.But the issues appear to be at least partly the result of problems at Google Cloud, the web infrastructure division of the search giant. Though it is not clear that all of the problems were related to that issue, it began around the same time.Google Cloud confirmed on its status page that “multiple services” were “experiencing issues” in Western Europe. It said that its engineers were investigating the problem and apologised to affected users.It is just the latest instance of an outage that highlights just how much of the web depends on a relatively small number of companies. Similar incidents have happened in recent years at Cloudflare and Amazon Web Services, for instance. Each of those companies offer a variety of different services, but they are focused on allowing websites to use infrastructure and software that they require to offer their websites. As such, they have grown dramatically as the web has become bigger, complex and more important. By centralising that infrastructure within a limited number of companies, they are able to benefit from economies of scale and websites can borrow those tools more cheaply and easily than building them on their own. That offers a variety of benefits, as well as reduced cost: customers can use more servers and other technology at times of high traffic, for instance, and the cloud services can be flexible because they have more resources available. But that same consolidation means that any outage or technical problems at one of those companies can very swiftly take down large parts of the internet, including websites that would otherwise appear not be connected. That has led to concern about the risks of that power, given that those companies can essentially decide how the internet works, or doesn’t. While the companies that run these services are well known, their cloud operations are relatively obscure compared to their more consumer-facing products. That is somewhat by design: the products are offered as foundations and infrastructure on which other websites can build their services, without anyone visiting them actually knowing.   But the control they have over the internet is vast. Amazon Web Services controls about 30 per cent of the global cloud market, for instance, with Microsoft Azure having about 20 per cent and Google Cloud at about 11 per cent – meaning that they together control about a third of the market. That is especially true for big and highly-visited websites, which tend both to be more likely to include the kinds of complex operations that cloud services help with, and to rely on them to ensure that they can deal with the large amounts of traffic they generate. Meta, Apple, Spotify and Snap have all been listed as customers of Google Cloud, for instance.

Iran Escalates Threat to Target Undersea Cables in Hormuz Strait: ‘All of the World’s Internet and Commercial Data Depend on Them’  Cryptocurrency punters remain skeptical that Iran will sabotage undersea cables to disrupt critical digital infrastructure, despite a renewed threat from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The betting crowd on Polygon based Polymarket priced in a 4% chance that Iran or any of its proxy groups, including Lebanon-based Hezbollah and Yemen's Houthis, physically damage undersea cable infrastructure by month-end. The probability of the attack occurring by year's end was 12%.  The odds shift as IRGC spokesperson Hossein Mohebi threatened to target undersea communication cables in the Strait of Hormuz, saying that "all of the world's internet and commercial data depend on them," reported Al Jazeera. Spokesman for Iran's IRGC, Brigadier-General Hossein Mohebi, has warned the US against renewed attacks and threatened to target internet cables passing through the Strait of Hormuz. https://t.co/V8uVRI4Qek pic.twitter.com/euP7RMEF0b — Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) October 19, 2026   Mohebi's comments came after Mohsen Rezaei, head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, warned that a return to intense fighting could endanger critical technology infrastructure, including cables, data centers, and AI facilities.The threats followed drone attacks in early March that damaged Amazon Web Services infrastructure in the UAE and Bahrain, causing physical damage, power disruptions and cloud service outages.More than 90% of data capacity between Europe and Asia passes through subsea fiber-optic cables running beneath the Red Sea, according to telecom data analytics firm TeleGeography.  Iran-backed Houthis control key coastal areas and shipping lanes at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the southern entrance to the Red Sea, giving Tehran another pressure point.

Can AI predict whether you’ll die from cancer from just an image of your face? | Scientific American - - A new artificial intelligence model can predict a cancer patient’s risk of dying from a single photograph of their face, according to new research. While not perfectly accurate, the model found that people with higher risk-of-death scores, in general, had a higher risk of dying. The AI builds on how human doctors evaluate their patients’ health, says Ray Mak, a radiation oncologist at Mass General Brigham Cancer Institute, who conducted the research with his colleagues. “We’re trained in medical school to walk into a room, look at the patient and make an assessment—an impression of how healthy, frail or sick they are,” Mak says. That decision can help determine what treatment a patient receives—surgery, chemotherapy, radiation, and more. The problem, Mak says, is “that’s really a subjective assessment.” The AI, Mak and his team hope, could help doctors and patients make more informed, objective decisions about cancer treatment and end-of-life care.Mak and his colleagues trained an algorithm to analyze and “learn” 40 million images of faces without giving it a specific task. They then tweaked the model to analyze new photographs in two distinct ways: first, to estimate a person’s biological age and, second, to predict cancer patients’ odds of survival. The outcome was surprisingly accurate. In a test group of 3,820 cancer patients, more than half of those with the highest risk score—64 out of 122—died within just 90 days of when their photograph was taken. In a separate test group that included more than 38,000 cancer patients, those that looked older than their chronological age also had a higher risk of dying.“To our knowledge, this is the first report of an AI algorithm that can directly predict cancer patient survival from a simple face photograph,” the researchers write in the study, which was published on Monday in the journal Lancet Digital Health. The question is: How does the AI do this? For both age and death risk predictions, Mak and his team tracked where the algorithm was “looking” in its analysis, a technique they call “attention mapping.” For age prediction, they found that the AI tended to base its predictions on facial areas such as the nasolabial folds—the crease between your nose and mouth—and parts of the forehead. For risk of death, the AI tended to focus on the bridge of the nose and areas below the eyes. It’s unclear why those areas specifically correlated with a person’s risk of death.

AI Still Needs A Wet Lab To Design Drugs - The latest AI-biotech demonstration came with a laboratory bill. That’s the part of the story we like as investors.On October 20th, investment-research firm Citrini Research published its three-month experiment with an internal Anthropic model: could a group of nonexperts use Claude to help design a potential scorpion antivenom? Twist Bioscience (TWST), a provider of synthetic DNA and protein services, helped turn the computer’s designs into material scientists could test.Citrini’s Eva Roytburg introduces the experiment in this video:   Anthropic’s research report describes 17 qualifying binders among 211 designs tested. A binder is a protein that attaches to a target. The researchers hadn’t tested whether these designs actually neutralize a toxin in cells or protect a living animal. That distinction separates a promising design result from a treatment.Nathan C. Frey, Anthropic’s head of drug-discovery and development research, lays out both the achievement and the work still ahead:The lab work was substantial. Citrini reports a combined bill of just under $150,000 paid to Twist and Adaptyv Bio for synthesis, protein production and testing.The investment question is who earns revenue as researchers generate and test more ideas. Twist already performed physical work in this experiment. Our thesis is that cheaper molecular design can expand demand for the synthesis and testing needed to find out which designs work.Novartis CEO Vas Narasimhan made the underlying distinction in his October 20th essay: AI can reduce information and operational delays, while experiments and clinical development still impose biological constraints. Generating more candidates also raises the value of choosing and testing them well.Investor Kevin Mak read the same evidence as a reason the market’s biotech-disruption trade could reverse. We’re focused on the supplier side: AI’s progress can create customers for laboratory services while drug developers continue the difficult work of proving safety and efficacy.

'Tell me what you think': Challenges of managing AI users | American Banker - At Franklin Templeton, more than 6,000 AI agents have been deployed that act like individual employees. They report to manager AI agents that evaluate whether they are doing their work properly or need to be reprogrammed or even turned off. The manager agents report to HR agents, which report to human beings."It sounds a little sci-fi-ish, but these agents are actually taking action in your organization every day," said Sandy Kaul, head of digital assets and innovation at the investment firm, at American Banker's Most Powerful Women in Banking conference this week. "The way they're operating needs to be monitored, and you need another agent to monitor that," she said.

• Key insight: Leaders at financial firms are figuring out how to plan for armies of autonomous agents as they grapple with where, what kind and how much AI staff should be using today.
• Expert quote: "The leadership challenge and the talent challenge that we're all going to have is, I don't want to read copilots' recommendations. The same way that if you stand in front of a board, they don't want to have you reading your notes. They want to hear your perspective and your judgment. And so I'm trying to push really hard on the teams to say, don't give me what the agents or the LLMs are telling you. Tell me what you think, and do it in a way that I know it's your thought. It can be informed by those, but I need to know it's your actual thought." —Kristin Lesher, chief wholesale banking officer at Truist.

'Nightmare': Unvetted AI agents are accessing US bank accounts, Axios reports | Watch (video interview) AXIOS senior AI reporter Madison Mills joins Morning Joe to break down her reporting on third-party AI agents accessing customer bank accounts. Mills says users often give agents their login credentials, while some banks have also seen activity that appears to go beyond user instructions; she cautions that consumers need not panic and distinguishes this issue from a conventional cyberattack. She discusses the efforts by banks to restrict agent access and unresolved questions about who is responsible if an agent takes an action a user did not authorize.

Gould: Banks preparing for rogue AI agents for 'months' - Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan Gould said Thursday that national banks are "well fortified and well guarded" against cyberattacks, but stayed mum on who is liable when breaches occur.

Bankers grapple with liability when AI agents mess up | American Banker - (graphic: Consumer comfort with AI. Shoppers are largely unwilling to let AI make a payment) As banks and payment companies adopt agentic AI, one question that keeps cropping up is, who is liable when an AI agent does something wrong? Besides the risk of hackers or fraudsters manipulating AI and of rogue AI agents taking actions outside their prompts or parameters, there's the chance that the consumer or some other party down the chain might make a simple error. For instance, a bank might approve a payment for a sweater that was ordered in the wrong size. The bank's approval doesn't prove the agent bought what the shopper asked for.

• What's at stake: Bankers, tech companies and others are working to define who is liable when AI agents commit errors, fraud or crime.
• Supporting data: Annual U.S. agentic commerce spending is projected to scale up to $500 billion by 2030, according to Bain consultants.

Banks dodge early damage from PHP2Shell flaws | American Banker

• Key insight: Attackers have fired millions of attempts at the PHP2Shell flaws, but no U.S. bank or credit union has publicly reported a compromise.
• Expert quote: "You own the risk even when a vendor runs the system," wrote Samantha Van den Broek of Crimson Oak Strategies, a compliance consultancy for credit unions.

Overview bullets generated by AI with editorial review.

'A team sport:' Responding to cyber threats in the age of AI | American Banker Artificial intelligence is redefining both fraud and cybersecurity risks for banks in real-time. The question of who holds responsibility for AI at its worst is challenging bank leaders across the industry.According to bank cybersecurity executives at American Banker's Most Powerful Women in Banking Conference, breaking down institutional silos and active collaboration across departments and companies is important for fighting cybercrime.

• Key insight: Bank risk and security leaders are growing more concerned about the use of AI in fraud and cybersecurity.
• Expert quote: "When Microsoft releases a patch, it's basically telling the world where the vulnerabilities are. As a bank and as an institution, now we're even further exposed because now the criminals know where the vulnerabilities sit."—Ally Financial Chief Risk Officer Stephanie Richard

Why banks should care about the new romance scam law -The ICBA-supported Romance Scam Prevention Act requires fraud-ban notices that most apps already send.

• Key insight: The new law mostly codifies existing practice. Most dating services already send fraud-ban notices to all users because at least four states require them, and the federal law overrides those state rules.
• Supporting data: Among victims who told the FTC how they paid, bank transfers carried the most romance-scam losses in 2025, at $195 million, ahead of cryptocurrency at $159 million.

Overview bullets generated by AI with editorial review.

What banks can learn from Fincen's penalty against BofA | American Banker 

• Key insight: Bank of America tuned its transaction-monitoring model to improve SAR yield, the share of flagged customers whose activity ends up in a SAR, and cut more than 8,200 cases in one 2021 recalibration.
• What's at stake: Fincen counted the "hundreds of millions of dollars" in compliance spending the bank likely saved as a financial gain from its violations, a signal that skimping on investigators carries a price.

Overview bullets generated by AI with editorial review.

The next phase of Trump's banking reforms won't be so easy - Banking regulators were in lockstep for many of the administration's initial banking policy agenda items. Agreement may not be so easy to obtain for the items that remain.

Elon Musk to give SpaceX share to every US child --Tech mogul Elon Musk said Monday he will give every child in the U.S. one share of SpaceX next year. “This will be the first of many,” Musk wrote in a post on the social platform X, which he also owns and is technically part of SpaceX. He did not specify how he plans to go about providing shares in the company, which went public earlier this summer in the biggest initial public offering on record. However, Trump Accounts, the administration’s investment accounts for children, now allow for stock donations. SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell previously announced in July that she and her husband were planning to donate stock in the company to Trump Accounts for more than 2 million children, specifically teens who live in lower-income areas near the couple’s home in central Texas. In late September, the Internal Revenue Service put forward regulations allowing for such stock contributions, suggesting it “will facilitate more donations from eligible donors, and will help create a practical pathway for large-scale private giving.”

Hack exposes data on millions of California students – Personal information about millions of California students was stolen in a hack of a non-profit organization that contracts with the state’s Department of Education, officials announced Friday.The names, addresses, demographic information and disability status of all 7 million students enrolled in California public schools over the past three school years were exposed in the breach, the CDE said. The hack targeted the Education Testing Service, which administers standardized tests for across the U.S and globally. In California, it manages statewide assessments such as the Smarter Balanced exam and English proficiency tests.An “unauthorized party used a compromised login credential” to copy files containing the student data between May 22 and Sept. 18, according to CDE officials. ETS did not discover the incursion until Sept. 25, days after it ended, and state officials began notifying students and parents on Friday, according to the CDE.After discovering data had been taken, the company took the server storing it offline and disabled the account used in the hack. Law enforcement has been notified and is conducting an investigation, officials said.In a statement, a spokesperson for ETS said that the company “maintains a comprehensive information security program” and that it “continuously invests in safeguarding the systems and data we maintain.”In the wake of the breach, ETS has paused processing enrollment data and “certain testing activities while the security of its systems are assessed,” according to a letter the department sent to districts on Oct. 2 notifying them of an “incident involving ETS-operated systems.”“We share the concerns of California students and families,” a CDE spokesperson said in a statement. “Protecting student information is a top priority, and we expect our contractors to uphold the highest standards of data security and accountability. We are taking this incident extremely seriously, working with state cybersecurity experts, and reviewing ETS’s compliance with its data security obligations. Our focus is on ensuring affected students and families receive the information and resources they need while holding our contractors accountable for protecting student data.”The pilfered information did not include social security numbers, driver’s licenses, passports or financial account information, according to officials. Parents and guardians’ data was also not affected.State officials said they are “working with state cybersecurity experts to assess the effect on California students and families and so that affected individuals receive appropriate information and support.” ETS is also offering affected students access to an identity-theft protection service for two years.Friday’s announcement comes after another high-profile hack this spring shut down Canvas, a learning module system commonly used by K-12 schools, colleges and universities to assign homework, administer tests and share lesson plans with students. In that case, leaders of Canvas parent company Instructure opted to reach an agreement with the hacking group, known as ShinyHunters, to reclaim stolen data.

Why more lenders are opting to make big payouts in data breach cases | American Banker - Lenders fending off the onslaught of lawsuits after a data breach can look to their peers who've increasingly paid big bucks to make the cases go away. Five real estate players spent over $9 million in settlements this summer to squash cybersecurity class action complaints. While those companies stemmed off potentially costly litigation, their timing could have in part been influenced by the slowing housing market.

• Key Insight: The real reason mortgage lenders are suddenly rushing to settle data breach lawsuits.
• What's at Stake: Whether mortgage lenders can survive years of public litigation or must settle immediately.
• Supporting Data: $102 million: The total amount paid by mortgage originators, servicers, and vendors.
  Overview bullets generated by AI with editorial review.

OCC report conflates valid risk calls with discrimination -- The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency claimed its debanking report demonstrated banks' bias in ending relationships with certain clients. But experts say the banks' actions show a more nuanced approach to legitimate — and subjective — questions of reputational risk.

OCC leaves room for stablecoin yield maneuvers in final rule  - The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency Wednesday finalized its GENIUS Act implementation rule for stablecoins that leaves the door open for third parties to offer yield-like rewards for stablecoin holdings or transactions.

• Key insight: The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency retained the ban on issuers paying yield directly to stablecoin holders but removed a proposed presumption that would have treated certain third-party rewards arrangements as prohibited. 
• Forward look: The OCC said it will assess yield arrangements based on the "facts and circumstances" of each case, leaving the treatment of third-party rewards and transaction-based payments on the table.

The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency dropped a presumption against third-party stablecoin rewards in its final stablecoin rule, opting instead to consider alternative arrangements on a case-by-case basis.

Stablecoins Move $400M An Hour, With 73% Of Volume Outside Banking Hours: Coinbase Stablecoins moved more than $400 million an hour in adjusted transfer volume during the third quarter of 2026, as quarterly activity reached $891 billion, more than quadrupling since early 2023, according to a new report commissioned by Coinbase. The report found that 73% of screened stablecoin transfer volume occurred outside US banking hours, including nights, weekends and holidays. Seven of the 10 largest US banks have tested stablecoins or tokenized deposits for settlement, while 30% of mid-market companies conducting cross-border business are using or piloting stablecoins, up from 10% in 2024. Business-to-business payment volume also rose 36% year over year. Conducted by The Block Research, the findings identified 293 million blockchain addresses holding stablecoins, exceeding the combined number of cards issued by American Express and Discover, though researchers cautioned that addresses do not necessarily represent individual users. The report also estimated that moving 80% of international transactions onto stablecoin networks could add $155 billion to global GDP annually and free up roughly $3 trillion in liquidity currently held by banks to support cross-border payments. Those projections are based on hypothetical adoption scenarios rather than observed economic gains. Researchers also acknowledged that widespread stablecoin adoption could reduce bank lending, potentially offsetting some of the benefits of faster and cheaper payments. A separate survey released Monday by the National Cryptocurrency Association found that 42% of US adults, representing approximately 112 million people, would be more likely to open an account with a bank offering crypto services or use that institution for more of their financial needs. The survey found that 18% of US adults would like to buy or use stablecoins through their primary bank or financial institution. However, 64% said their bank, credit union or financial advisor had never raised the topic of cryptocurrency, while 43% did not know whether their bank offered crypto services.

Turning mercury into gold? A US start-up says it has just done it - --Little-known San Francisco start-up Marathon Fusion says it has turned mercury into stable gold at ten times the rate of CERN's record, raising a question that has haunted the diamond trade: could lab-made gold one day sink the price of the mined metal? Marathon Fusion, a small fusion energy company in San Francisco, announced on Wednesday that it had transmuted, or converted, mercury into stable gold last month, beating a record set by CERN tenfold. The Geneva-based organisation runs the world's largest particle physics laboratory. The claim, which has not been independently verified, revives an alchemist's dream and a market fear that lab-made gold could do to bullion what lab-grown precious stones did to diamonds. Founded in 2023 by Kyle Schiller and Adam Rutkowski, a former SpaceX engineer, Marathon develops fuel systems for future fusion power plants, which aim to generate electricity by fusing atoms together, as the sun does. It lists the US Department of Energy as a partner on its website and won a 2023 award from ARPA-E, the department's agency for high-risk energy research. Its backers include Breakthrough Energy, the climate technology network founded by Bill Gates, and Anglo American, the mining group that owns De Beers, the world's leading natural diamond company behind the "A diamond is forever" slogan. In its announcement, the company said it had turned "mercury into real, stable gold, beating CERN's record by a factor of 10". In 2025, CERN said its Large Hadron Collider (LHC), the world's most powerful particle accelerator, had created about 29 picograms, or 29 trillionths of a gram, of gold during its 2015–2018 run. That amounted to around 86 billion gold nuclei, or atomic cores, which existed for only a tiny fraction of a second before being destroyed in collisions with accelerator equipment. Marathon's method fires neutrons from fusion reactions at mercury, turning it into an unstable isotope, or form of the metal, that decays into gold. It also claims to have broken a 40-year-old Soviet record with its plasma centrifuge, a machine that spins electrically charged gas at high speed to separate isotopes used in fusion fuel. It says it is now building a reactor in San Francisco to achieve record power density, meaning the most power produced for its size. The gold claim has not been independently verified, and the material available does not establish how much gold was produced or at what cost.

Data center real estate is getting hard to find - They say real estate is all about location, location, location. The prime spots for the construction of data centers are getting sparser, sparser, sparser.For most of the digital age, a data center site was chosen primarily for its proximity to customers and speedy internet service, along with tax incentives, local building policies and the affordability of power. That’s why northern Virginia became the world’s dominant data center hub in the last two decades: nearby clients in the federal government, major internet cables crossing the Atlantic Ocean, favorable zoning, a 2018 state tax exemption and relatively cheap electricity prices.But backlash to large data centers for artificial intelligence is rewriting the rules. Instead of ramping up tax incentives, 16 state legislatures have considered outright bans on their development. As the glut in projects strains U.S. electrical grids and voters from both parties increasingly sour on the bulky facilities, developers are rethinking what they really need.“On balance, when we look at the industry, the primary drivers are not ones of a bounty of choice. It's one of very limited choice,” said Ian Nieboer, who leads energy transition research at Enverus, a data analytics company.  In interviews, industry executives told POLITICO that, among those drivers, incentives and customer proximity are increasingly secondary considerations while power access and friendly neighbors are topping priority lists.“AI has essentially flipped that question upside down,” said Tricia Martinez, CEO of Dapple, which offers an operating system for AI infrastructure. “We're seeing projects follow available power: where you can secure the generation, how quickly it can come online, what the transmission constraints are and whether you can build dedicated generation alongside that site.”AI models need energy-intensive servers to run them, so as AI popularity grows, plans for power-hungry data centers are growing too. Among the AI bottlenecks, the grid is "the critical path," according to a Monday report from Goldman Sachs.“Siting is very much an evolving landscape right now,” said Dan Diorio, executive vice president of state policy and government affairs for the Data Center Coalition, an association for the data center industry. Diorio pointed to access to available power as a key consideration for his coalition’s members, although he noted it is one of many different factors that companies consider when they decide where to site a project.“You have so many things that fall under that, including access to the fiber lines, access to water if necessary for cooling — also the overall tax and regulatory climate, if you have the workforce as well,” he said. “Those principles still hold true. But I think it's fair to say that the policy landscape as it continues to evolve will certainly have an effect on data center siting.”That landscape has continued to shift ahead of the November midterms as governors and local leaders across the country reevaluate data center support in their states.A 2025 report by consulting group Grid Strategies found data centers now account for more than half of forecast nationwide electricity demand growth over the coming five years. That’s equivalent to the consumption of New York City eight times over.The group's 2026 report is not yet out. Sophie Meyer, Grid Strategies' director of power systems, said the group's "preliminary analysis" of this year’s utility forecasts shows further increases in demand.Grid Strategies in its 2025 analysis identified a few hot spots for new development: northern Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Atlanta, Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri and other spots in the Midwest.But just one year later, a lot has changed on the ground. Data center growth in Ohio is consuming a U.S. Senate race, while more than a dozen local communities will vote on ballot initiatives, including bans. In Texas, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott faces a surprisingly strong Democratic challenger in state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, who has made data center development a key issue in the race.Virginia legislators in June kept its tax incentives for data centers but decided to impose an energy tax. That reflects a new reality for developers: It's not just that the politics are getting trickier — there are real constraints with the available resources as more and more centers come online. “What's happened in Texas and other markets, Virginia included, is that the amount of grid capacity that has been available is basically gone,” said Curt Holcomb, vice chair with JLL's data center solutions team, which assists users of data centers in site selection.PJM Interconnection — the grid main operator for Virginia, Ohio and Pennsylvania — is on track to dip into reserves to satisfy skyrocketing power demand in 2027. Yet the region boasts another grid that’s still drawing in developers: natural gas pipelines.PJM hosts one of the nation’s densest networks of pipelines, which projects like the $10 billion Homer City Campus in Pennsylvania plan to build offshoots from in order to fuel their own on-site power plants.It's emblematic of another consideration for data centers. In an age where policymakers are telling developers to "bring your own power," proximity to natural gas pipelines and other infrastructure that can power on-site plants is also an emerging factor.“That's a big part of what we look for now,” Holcomb said. “It's not only grid connections with the existing electrical transmission, but also the natural gas pipeline system so that we can tap into that to eventually build either large power plants or a smaller power installation, or generation facility for bridge power until we get that grid connection.”Of data center projects tracked by research company Wood Mackenzie, less than one-tenth planned to include on-site generation. But those projects tended to be bigger, representing one-third of the total tracked energy capacity.

Housing Is Collapsing & Wall Street Doesn't Even Notice -- The cracks in the U.S. housing market are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. Over the past 48 hours, we’ve received a series of housing reports that paint a troubling picture of an economy struggling under the weight of elevated rates, as I have been predicting would happen.And perhaps most concerning, this deterioration is taking place just as the Federal Reserve contemplates additional tightening. I wanted to take this morning to review the latest data and explain what implications this could eventually have for the market.Pending home sales plunged 7.3% in September, dramatically worse than economists expected, pushing contract signings to their lowest level since records began in 2001. According to ZeroHedge, the deterioration was widespread across the country, with pending sales falling 9.2% in the West, 8.2% in the South, 6.5% in the Midwest, and 4.2% in the Northeast. Every major region experienced a decline, suggesting that the weakness is not confined to a handful of overheated housing markets.More importantly, pending sales typically lead completed transactions by one to two months, meaning September’s collapse could translate into additional weakness in existing home sales over the coming months.Housing starts also fell 5.2%, while single-family building permits declined 4% to their lowest level since 2023. The weakness has carried into October, with mortgage purchase applications falling sharply and refinancing activity remaining deeply depressedThe numbers represent a broad deterioration across multiple parts of the housing market, from prospective buyers and existing homeowners to builders and lenders. What makes the latest figures particularly revealing is that mortgage rates actually declined last week, from 7.50% to 7.41%, yet demand continued to weaken. Even a modest reprieve in borrowing costs wasn’t enough to bring buyers back. At this point, the problem isn’t simply whether rates are rising or falling from one week to the next. At this point, the problem isn’t simply whether rates are rising or falling from one week to the next; it is the broader trend of where interest rates may go next and how long they will remain elevated.

Donald Trump signs executive order geared at lowering housing, mortgage costs - President Trump signed an executive order Thursday aiming to lower mortgage payments as elevated borrowing costs have stifled the housing market. Trump’s order directs Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) Director Bill Pulte to create a pilot program to cancel insurance premiums for government-backed mortgages once a borrower has satisfied equity requirements.The president also established a task force to lower home construction costs and improve the quality of housing by “facilitating the use of modern manufacturing methods” in the production of units eligible for federal programs. Homeownership is a vital pillar of our great Nation, and President Trump and his Administration are working tirelessly to cut burdensome costs and red tape to make the American dream of homeownership more affordable for all Americans,” the White House said in a fact sheet outlining the order. The average 30-year mortgage rate has soared above 7 percent amid the Iran war, as spikes in bond yields and oil prices push borrowing costs up for prospective homebuyers. The average 30-year mortgage rate dipped this week for the first time since mid-August, falling from 7.4 percent to 7.32 percent, according to data from Freddie Mac. The average 15-year mortgage rate also decreased week over week, from 6.71 percent to 6.68 percent. The months-long increase in mortgage rates poses a challenge to the housing market. Pending home sales decreased by 7.3 percent from August to September and were down by 11.3 percent year over year, per the National Association of Realtors (NAR). “Market conditions weakened in September due to fast-rising mortgage rates,” said Dr. Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “Although job growth and income gains can support home purchases, housing affordability is more affected by changes in mortgage rates.” Trump’s executive order also directs Pulte to expand the FHFA’s title insurance waiver pilot into a permanent program, which will “allow more borrowers to utilize cost-friendly alternatives” to title insurance and thereby reduce refinancing costs, the White House said. The president also ordered Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins and Veterans Affairs Secretary Doug Collins to lower interest rates on single-family home loans their respective departments provide. Pulte, a fierce proponent of Trump’s agenda who briefly served as acting director of national intelligence earlier this year, argued Thursday the president’s order was the “greatest” such action ever taken on housing. “Because of President Trump’s bold actions to put Americans First, millions of Americans will save thousands and thousands of dollars,” Pulte wrote on social media Thursday. Shannon McGahn, NAR’s executive vice president, also praised Trump’s order as helping to “address the costs associated with homeownership,” adding it “takes steps toward making homeownership more sustainable” for Americans.

Elon Musk to give SpaceX share to every US child --Tech mogul Elon Musk said Monday he will give every child in the U.S. one share of SpaceX next year. “This will be the first of many,” Musk wrote in a post on the social platform X, which he also owns and is technically part of SpaceX. He did not specify how he plans to go about providing shares in the company, which went public earlier this summer in the biggest initial public offering on record. However, Trump Accounts, the administration’s investment accounts for children, now allow for stock donations. SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell previously announced in July that she and her husband were planning to donate stock in the company to Trump Accounts for more than 2 million children, specifically teens who live in lower-income areas near the couple’s home in central Texas. In late September, the Internal Revenue Service put forward regulations allowing for such stock contributions, suggesting it “will facilitate more donations from eligible donors, and will help create a practical pathway for large-scale private giving.”

Students with disabilities forced to clean high school cafeteria, parents say - The parents of a South Carolina high school student who has autism say he and other students with disabilities were required to clean the school cafeteria. Jeremiah and Felicia Sams can’t believe what they say happened to their son, Will, at Lakewood High School in Sumter. “Those teachers didn’t even say anything. They knew it was wrong,” Jeremiah Sams said. The parents say Will, who is on the autism spectrum, came home from school recently and told them he had to clean cafeteria tables and floors after other students finished eating. “I said, ‘What are you talking about cleaning?’ That’s when we went into detail. That’s when he explained to me, ‘Oh, well, we have to go in and clean, and they give us gloves and a bucket,’” Jeremiah Sams said. “My first reaction was something’s not right. No, I’m hearing this wrong. There’s no way that they have one group of children doing all of this,” he said. Jeremiah Sams says he spoke with school leaders the next day. He was told his son and other students cleaned the cafeteria as part of a “work study program.” He realized only disabled students were involved and calls the activity discriminatory. “If you are singling out a group — an individual group — to do a task, that’s discrimination. It’s black and white,” he said. The Sumter School District responded in a statement in part: “Through employability classes and individualized life skills instruction, students develop practical skills that promote independence, build confidence, and support their transition into adulthood.” Jeremiah Sams says his son wasn’t in an employability class. He says after the meeting, the school contacted him to say the “work study program” had ceased. The school district’s statement says its “life skills activities and any alternative approaches... are being reviewed.” Although Jeremiah Sams considers that a step in the right direction, he says more needs to be done. “Definitely need to see some change in the school system. We need to see some accountability in how these kids are being monitored, how they are being pushed, essentially,” he said.

Undocumented Student Enrollment In California Schools Takes A Nosedive  -New immigrant and undocumented student enrollment has dropped sharply in California schools and public universities, driven by decreased border crossings and increased federal immigration enforcement.Breitbart reports that the major drop in the number of kids of illegal migrants enrolled in California's schools is saving the state millions in education budget dollars.The number of "newcomer" students born outside the U.S. who have been enrolled for 3 years or fewer has dropped from a record high of 236,958 in 2024-25 to 228,780 in 2025-26, with further declines anticipated. From 2017 to 2024, the Oakland Unified School District took in an average of 1,300 extra so-called "newcomer" students each year.However, in 2025 the district only saw 498 "newcomers" enter the schools, and this year that number fell to 212, forcing the district to close almost two-thirds of its newcomer programs, according to EdSource.L.A. schools recorded a drop of 46.5 percent in "newcomer" students, and San Juan Unified lost 13.6 percent of their "newcomer" students.The decline has also impacted higher education within the University of California system as undocumented student enrollment backed by state financial aid dropped by 51 percent, falling from 1,181 to 579 students, according to Georgetown University.   California State University reports undocumented student enrollment receiving state aid fell by 48 percent, dropping from 2,219 to 1,148 students, influenced by restrictions on DACA and labor market exclusions.Lower rates of cross-border migration have directly reduced the pipeline of newly arriving school-age children and the amount of education dollars directed at "newcomers" will necessarily see huge cuts in funding over the next few years. Due to declining enrollment numbers, the infrastructure and administrators for these programs will also become unnecessary and the taxpayers will not have to direct as much money into school budgets.

Hack exposes data on millions of California students – Personal information about millions of California students was stolen in a hack of a non-profit organization that contracts with the state’s Department of Education, officials announced Friday.The names, addresses, demographic information and disability status of all 7 million students enrolled in California public schools over the past three school years were exposed in the breach, the CDE said. The hack targeted the Education Testing Service, which administers standardized tests for across the U.S and globally. In California, it manages statewide assessments such as the Smarter Balanced exam and English proficiency tests.An “unauthorized party used a compromised login credential” to copy files containing the student data between May 22 and Sept. 18, according to CDE officials. ETS did not discover the incursion until Sept. 25, days after it ended, and state officials began notifying students and parents on Friday, according to the CDE.After discovering data had been taken, the company took the server storing it offline and disabled the account used in the hack. Law enforcement has been notified and is conducting an investigation, officials said.In a statement, a spokesperson for ETS said that the company “maintains a comprehensive information security program” and that it “continuously invests in safeguarding the systems and data we maintain.”In the wake of the breach, ETS has paused processing enrollment data and “certain testing activities while the security of its systems are assessed,” according to a letter the department sent to districts on Oct. 2 notifying them of an “incident involving ETS-operated systems.”“We share the concerns of California students and families,” a CDE spokesperson said in a statement. “Protecting student information is a top priority, and we expect our contractors to uphold the highest standards of data security and accountability. We are taking this incident extremely seriously, working with state cybersecurity experts, and reviewing ETS’s compliance with its data security obligations. Our focus is on ensuring affected students and families receive the information and resources they need while holding our contractors accountable for protecting student data.”The pilfered information did not include social security numbers, driver’s licenses, passports or financial account information, according to officials. Parents and guardians’ data was also not affected.State officials said they are “working with state cybersecurity experts to assess the effect on California students and families and so that affected individuals receive appropriate information and support.” ETS is also offering affected students access to an identity-theft protection service for two years.Friday’s announcement comes after another high-profile hack this spring shut down Canvas, a learning module system commonly used by K-12 schools, colleges and universities to assign homework, administer tests and share lesson plans with students. In that case, leaders of Canvas parent company Instructure opted to reach an agreement with the hacking group, known as ShinyHunters, to reclaim stolen data.

NIH sees 7,400 fewer grants during fiscal year 2026 than in previous year -- The National Institutes of Health (NIH) awarded nearly 12% fewer grants, or 7,400, in fiscal year 2026 compared to the year before President Donald Trump took office for his second term, according to a new analysis from the Association of American Medical Colleges. In fiscal year 2026, NIH awarded 56,600 grants, compared to fiscal year 2024, when the agency awarded 64,000 grants to biomedical researchers. Moreover, $1.9 billion was awarded to multiyear-funded programs in fiscal year 2026, down from the $2.1 billion earmarked for multiyear projects in fiscal year 2025. The decreases were consistent across all NIH funding mechanisms, including the number of research project grants, other research and development grants, and research training and career development grants.The data shows the last 24 months have resulted in continuous uncertainty for research institutions and scientists.  “Institutions require a stable and predictable funding environment throughout the year to plan research programs, budget for faculty and staff needs, and decide on the number of incoming graduate students and postdoctoral scholars,” the authors wrote. “Whether a result of timing, federal personnel changes, or funding mechanisms, it is disruptive to have large swings in the pace of funding from year to year or in the total number of grants.”

Study links antibiotic use with subsequent irritable bowel syndrome  - Children and adolescents who received antibiotics had 1.5-times-higher odds of irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) by age 24 than those who had not, Swedish researchers reported today at the annual United European Gastroenterology (UEG) conference. The findings are from an analysis of 2,853 participants enrolled in the BAMSE study, which began in Stockholm in 1994 and was originally established to study environmental and nutritional factors involved in the development of allergies and other chronic conditions. For this study, researchers at the University of Gothenburg reviewed antibiotic drug prescription data starting in 2005, when the participants were aged 9 to 11 years, until IBS was assessed at age 24, tracking whether they had received antibiotics, the number of prescriptions received, and which antibiotic classes had been prescribed. IBS is a common condition that can cause cramping, abdominal pain, bloating, diarrhea, or constipation. Antibiotic use has been hypothesized as a potential trigger because of its impact on the gut microbiome, but research linking antibiotics and IBS has been mixed. By age 24, 10% of the study participants had IBS, and 87.8% of them had received antibiotics, compared with 80.2% of those who didn’t have IBS. After accounting for sex and socioeconomic status, children and adolescents who received antibiotics had 1.5-times-higher odds of IBS than those who hadn’t. The odds of IBS increased with the number of antibiotic prescriptions, rising from 1.3 among participants who received two to three prescriptions to 1.6 with three to five prescriptions and 1.7 with six or more. Tetracyclines and cephalosporins were associated with higher odds of IBS than other antibiotic classes. The study authors say that while the findings don’t prove antibiotic use causes IBS, they support further research into the relationship.

Can AI predict whether you’ll die from cancer from just an image of your face? | Scientific American - - A new artificial intelligence model can predict a cancer patient’s risk of dying from a single photograph of their face, according to new research. While not perfectly accurate, the model found that people with higher risk-of-death scores, in general, had a higher risk of dying. The AI builds on how human doctors evaluate their patients’ health, says Ray Mak, a radiation oncologist at Mass General Brigham Cancer Institute, who conducted the research with his colleagues. “We’re trained in medical school to walk into a room, look at the patient and make an assessment—an impression of how healthy, frail or sick they are,” Mak says. That decision can help determine what treatment a patient receives—surgery, chemotherapy, radiation, and more. The problem, Mak says, is “that’s really a subjective assessment.” The AI, Mak and his team hope, could help doctors and patients make more informed, objective decisions about cancer treatment and end-of-life care.Mak and his colleagues trained an algorithm to analyze and “learn” 40 million images of faces without giving it a specific task. They then tweaked the model to analyze new photographs in two distinct ways: first, to estimate a person’s biological age and, second, to predict cancer patients’ odds of survival. The outcome was surprisingly accurate. In a test group of 3,820 cancer patients, more than half of those with the highest risk score—64 out of 122—died within just 90 days of when their photograph was taken. In a separate test group that included more than 38,000 cancer patients, those that looked older than their chronological age also had a higher risk of dying.“To our knowledge, this is the first report of an AI algorithm that can directly predict cancer patient survival from a simple face photograph,” the researchers write in the study, which was published on Monday in the journal Lancet Digital Health. The question is: How does the AI do this? For both age and death risk predictions, Mak and his team tracked where the algorithm was “looking” in its analysis, a technique they call “attention mapping.” For age prediction, they found that the AI tended to base its predictions on facial areas such as the nasolabial folds—the crease between your nose and mouth—and parts of the forehead. For risk of death, the AI tended to focus on the bridge of the nose and areas below the eyes. It’s unclear why those areas specifically correlated with a person’s risk of death.

Connection Between Sudden Hearing Loss and COVID-19?  - A 45-year-old man presents to the otolaryngology department of the Royal National Throat, Nose and Ear Hospital in London, England, reporting having lost the hearing in his left ear over the previous week while in the hospital receiving treatment for COVID-19. His medical history includes asthma, and he notes that prior to his admission, aside from the asthma, he was fit and well. The patient explains that he was admitted after 10 days of worsening COVID-19 symptoms, and subsequently was transferred to the intensive care unit (ICU) due to breathing difficulties and was intubated for 30 days. His time in the ICU was further complicated by bilateral pulmonary emboli, ventilator-associated pneumonia, pulmonary hypertension, and anemia. Treatments for his COVID-19 infection included remdesivir, intravenous steroids, and plasma exchange, which resulted in clinical improvement. He was extubated and transferred out of the ICU. A week later, however, he suddenly developed ringing in his left ear and lost hearing in that ear. The patient has no previous history of hearing loss or ear pathology. His records show that he was also receiving treatment with teicoplanin and ciprofloxacin during admission, but this was completed 2 days before the hearing loss developed, and no ototoxic medications were administered. The patient completes a course of oral steroids 60 mg for 7 days, and reports having some improved hearing. Subsequent treatment with three rescue intratympanic injections of 0.5 mL methylprednisolone sodium succinate (125 mg/mL), however, do not seem to have any additional benefits when clinicians test his hearing using pure tone audiograms. Clinical examination reveals patent and non-inflamed ear canals, with intact tympanic membranes. Bedside hearing tests suggest left-sided sensorineural hearing loss, with a negative Rinne test on that side and a Weber test lateralizing to the opposite side. He has no additional focal neurology. Angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE), immunoglobulins, and complement C3 and C4 are all within normal range, and magnetic resonance imaging of the internal auditory meatus excludes any other explanations for the patient's unilateral hearing loss, which does not improve. In the absence of any clear etiology to explain the patient's sudden hearing loss, clinicians consider it possible that his symptoms may be related to COVID-19.Clinicians presenting this case of rare sudden onset sensorineural hearing loss (SSNHL) following COVID-19 note that it is the first to be reported in the U.K., and that there have been only four other cases previously described anywhere in the literature. Hearing loss can be a significant cause of morbidity and can easily be missed in the ICU setting, the case authors note. Being aware and screening for SSNHL following COVID-19, therefore, allows early treatment with a course of steroids, and represents the best chance of recovering hearing.

Spouses are better predictors of severe COVID-19 infection than siblings, new data reveal -During the COVID-19 pandemic, people often speculated about why one infected person needed to be hospitalized while another had only mild symptoms. It seemed reasonable to assume that genes could contribute to the difference in severity. But a study published this week in the International Journal of Epidemiology finds that the seriousness of a COVID-19 infection could have more to do with your spouse than your siblings. “The most striking finding is that we found no evidence that genetic factors played an important role in determining who was hospitalized with COVID-19,” lead author Maria Timofeeva, PhD, of the University of Southern Denmark Faculty of Health Sciences, said in a university press release. “Who you live with may matter more for severe COVID-19 than who you are genetically related to.” Timofeeva and her colleagues examined data from nearly 84,000 twins and 33,000 of their spouses matched to more than 839,000 population controls and more than 327,000 control spouses from February 1, 2020, to October 31, 2022. They used a positive COVID-19 test and hospitalizations to represent susceptibility and severity of the illness, respectively. Twins allow researchers to examine the role genes play in infection and illness, while spouses give the scientists the chance to understand their environment. If genes contributed to the severity of COVID-19, the twin of a hospitalized twin would be at an increased risk for hospitalization. But that wasn’t the case. Instead, spouses were 3.6 times more likely to be hospitalized if their partner also landed in an inpatient room. Seventy-one percent of hospitalized partners were admitted within five days of each other.  Who you live with may matter more for severe COVID-19 than who you are genetically related to. Genes played a “modest” part in the likelihood of becoming infected with COVID-19, but only during the third wave of the pandemic.

CDC sends a 'disease detective' to Pennsylvania amid measles outbreak --  The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is sending a disease expert to assist with the response to the ongoing measles outbreak in Pennsylvania.“CDC will continue working closely with Pennsylvania health officials to provide the expertise and support needed to respond to the outbreak and protect public health,” a CDC spokesperson told NBC News. The Hill has reached out to the CDC for comment.Pennsylvania has seen a surge in measles cases in recent months, reporting its sixth death from the disease last week. The commonwealth surpassed 1,000 measles cases in early October.The measles outbreak in the state has been the source of disagreement between state and federal officials. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) blamed the Trump administration — specifically Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — for its rhetoric on vaccines and medicine.Shapiro and Kennedy clashed in August, with the governor claiming the HHS secretary is focused on conspiracy theories instead of providing assistance to the Keystone State. “I told him what would be most helpful is if he would join me in encouraging people to get vaccinated and stop spreading misinformation. He then launched into a tirade — talking about fetal tissue and blaming the previous Administration for this problem,” Shapiro wrote on social media in August. “He even told me it would be better if we went back to ‘natural measles.’”Kennedy, who is perhaps the most prominent vaccine skeptic in the U.S., claimed Shapiro provided no evidence that he’s spread the vaccine misinformation.“During our phone conversation, Governor Shapiro also accused me of promoting vaccine misinformation. When I asked him for an example, he was unable to provide one,” Kennedy wrote on social media at the time.In that same post, Kennedy claimed at length that the measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine contained “fetal tissue” — an assertion which Shapiro and medical professionals reject. The American Academy of Pediatrics has said that vaccines do not contain fetal cells.   The MMR vaccination rate in Pennsylvania has declined in recent years, and less than 1 percent of measles cases in the commonwealth are among vaccinated people, according to the state’s health department.  President Trump signed an executive order in August recommending splitting the MMR vaccine into three separate shots, linking the vaccine to autism and at one point raising the possibility of the combined vaccine being “quite lethal.” Experts have debunked links between the MMR vaccine and autism.The CDC spokesperson told NBC News that CDC Director Erica Schwartz recommends the MMR vaccine as “the most effective” way to prevent infection.

Pennsylvania raises alarm on congenital measles | CIDRAP - A new health alert from the Pennsylvania Department of Health is warning doctors about congenital measles, a disease that was once extremely rare in the United States. But now that dozens of pregnant Pennsylvania women have contracted measles in the state’s ongoing outbreak, the potentially fatal infection passed from mother to baby in utero is poised to pose clinical challenges for physicians facing a disease they’ve never seen in practice.So far, Pennsylvania has said 66 pregnant women have contracted measles while pregnant this year, and at least six babies in the state have been born with measles. Of the six deaths reported in the state, at least two have been in infants, but it’s not known if they had congenital infections.Releasing information on infant outcomes in those pregnancies is illegal in Pennsylvania. According to NBC News, there is also no national database on congenital measles, likely because the disease hasn’t been routinely seen in the United States for decades. “We don’t have denominator data on congenital measles,” said Adam J. Ratner, MD, MPH, a member of the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) Committee on Infectious Diseases, told CIDRAP News. The AAP released an updated FAQ on congenital measles last month.   Ratner explained that most of what is known about the disease comes from individual case studies and series. Because of this, it's impossible to extrapolate how many pregnant women with measles will have an infant with congenital measles.Furthermore, the case definition for congenital measles is tight: Only measles infections that occur in the last two weeks of pregnancy or the first 10 days post-delivery are considered congenital. But Ratner cited a 2021 case series in France described asymptomatic infants who tested positive for measles more than 20 weeks after maternal infection.Another case series conducted during the large Canadian measles outbreak of 2025 described 51 pregnant women who contracted the virus, resulting in nine cases of congenital measles. One of the nine case-patients died. Compounding the denominator problem is reporting. “There is definitely underreporting of prenatal measles, because mild cases of measles in pregnancy may not be picked up,” Ratner said.In its alert, the Pennsylvania health department urges women to get the measles, mumps, rubella vaccine (MMR) before pregnancy. MMR is not recommended once pregnancy begins because it contains live virus.If an unvaccinated pregnant woman is exposed to measles, she has a six-day window in which to take immunoglobulin therapies. If exposure happens to a pregnant women who received the two-dose MMR series in childhood, she should be well-protected against the virus.

US measles cases hit 4,588, more than twice last year’s total The number of confirmed US measles cases has hit 4,588, more than doubling its total from last year, according to the latest update from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). An additional 178 measles cases were reported this week, and over the past two weeks, 508 new measles infections have been confirmed. That’s more than the nation experienced from 2022 through 2024, when a total of 465 measles cases were reported. There have been 43 measles outbreaks across the country so far this year, with one new outbreak added since last week. An outbreak involves three or more people. Only 18 cases have been reported among international visitors. Of the confirmed cases, 17% have been in children under the age of 5, and 42% have been in kids and adolescents ages 5 to 19. Ten percent of cases overall have required hospitalization, including 16% of the cases in children under 5. Though the CDC has acknowledged three measles deaths this year, Pennsylvania alone has reported five, with a sixth death currently under investigation. Most of the confirmed cases (96%) have been in people who are unvaccinated or have unknown vaccination status. Since the beginning of 2025, there have been 6,877 confirmed measles cases in the United States, a number that will likely lead to the nation losing its measles elimination status later this year. Measles was declared officially eliminated in the United States in 2000. But in a presentation today at IDWeek, a major infectious disease conference being held this year in Washington, DC, one infectious disease expert said he thinks the actual number of US measles cases is likely much higher than the official case count. Andrew Pavia, MD, a pediatric infectious disease epidemiologist at the University of Utah, said that because of underreporting, he believes the number of US cases since the beginning of last year is “probably greater than 20,000.” “Measles is a serious illness. We are going to see the consequences for years to come,” Pavia said. Pavia compared measles outbreaks to a wildfire, saying they’re easier to get under control when the numbers are small. He noted that while a small number of states—Pennsylvania, South Carolina, and Utah—have experienced large, difficult-to-control outbreaks, many states have contained the virus. “So early and intense action is probably the tool we need, but we need the resources,” he said.

As measles soars in Pennsylvania, some parents are vaccinating their babies early  - Laura Esch was in disbelief. Her local paper was reporting that Pennsylvania had its first two measles-related deaths in 35 years. Both were infants. The story included a video of Gov. Josh Shapiro speaking at the hospital where she had delivered her younger daughter, Lucy, just a few months prior. It felt like the COVID-19 pandemic all over again, Esch told CIDRAP News. Only this time she was a mom. When Lucy was born in May, the county had no more than a dozen cases. Since then, it's become the epicenter of the largest measles outbreak the United States has seen this century. This year, more than a third of Pennsylvania's 1,317 cases, or 467 infections, have been reported there.   Widely regarded as the most contagious disease known to humans, measles is particularly harmful to infants, and at least 14,954 Pennsylvania children under the age of 1 year have received an early dose of the measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine, according to 2026 data from the Pennsylvania Department of Health (DOH). Infants produce a weaker immune response to the MMR, and DOH says these babies will still need two doses after their first birthday for lifelong protection.   Esch is counting the days until Lucy can get her early dose. The appointment is scheduled for the week after she turns 6 months, which is the absolute earliest the vaccine can be given.  Until then, Esch won't take Lucy into indoor public spaces, except to church or when picking up her older daughter from preschool.   Children typically receive their first MMR dose from 12 through 15 months of age. But babies as young as 6 months are recommended by the DOH to get an early MMR shot—sometimes referred to as a "zero dose"—if they live in an area where there is an active measles outbreak.The vaccine can't be given before 6 months, because maternal antibodies infants receive in utero can neutralize the immune response, making the vaccine less effective.   As a child nears their first birthday, these antibodies wane. As a result, the MMR vaccine becomes more effective, as shown in a 2019 meta-analysis in The Lancet. Researchers at the Netherlands' Centre for Infectious Disease Control found that, when given before 9 months, the vaccine is safe and well tolerated in infants, but it's just 58% protective against measles. That increases to 83% among babies who are 9 months or older.  "The potential for a lower immune response has to be balanced against the benefit of protecting a young infant during a period when they are at high risk of measles infection and its complications,"  In addition to the MMR vaccine being less protective when given earlier, some worry that a zero dose might blunt the effectiveness of later doses. For example, another 2019 Lancet study by the same team of Dutch researchers found that a zero dose leads to lower antibody levels after subsequent MMR doses, but this doesn't automatically translate into lower vaccine effectiveness.  Still, because research on the zero dose is limited, pediatricians won't give it "willy-nilly,"  However, in areas with measles transmission, or for international travel, infectious disease physicians, including O’Leary, widely agree that infants should get a zero dose at 6 months.   Even if a baby becomes infected, the vaccination likely prevents severe illness. That includes subacute sclerosing panencephalitis (SSPE), a rare but horrific neurologic complication of measles that's always fatal: Data suggest SSPE is more common if the patient is under 12 months when infected.  While most people make full recoveries, one to three of every 1,000 children who become infected with measles will likely die from respiratory and neurologic complications, according to the CDC. Other long-term complications include intellectual disabilities, deafness, blindness, and chronic lung damage. Further complicating these medical decisions, research presented today at the Infectious Diseases Society of America annual meeting (IDWeek) in Washington, DC, finds that, by 6 months, most US babies lack protective levels of measles antibodies. These data, which have yet to be peer-reviewed, suggest that infants may be vulnerable to measles earlier than currently assumed. The findings raise questions about whether national public health guidance for the measles vaccine should be updated, said lead author Buddy Creech, MD, MPH. One strategy would be to change the MMR schedule so that the first dose is given once an infant reaches the age of 9 or 10 months, which aligns with the WHO recommendation for countries where measles is common. Creech said this would shorten the period when a baby is unprotected but allow time for maternal antibodies to wane.  Pediatricians may still recommend a zero dose for younger babies, depending on local epidemiology.  US parents haven't had to worry much about measles in a generation. The virus was declared eliminated in the country in 2000 because of widespread MMR uptake. At that time, the country's collective immunity was about 92% to 94%, which is high enough to protect people, including babies, from measles if they are unable to get the vaccine.The measles vaccine has been so successful, Creech said, that Americans today have lower antibody levels than they did 50 or 60 years ago. When measles circulated widely, people's immune systems were periodically stimulated, or boosted, by encountering the virus from time to time.  As a result, he said it's plausible that babies born today have lower levels of maternal antibodies and are at risk for contracting measles sooner than was the case when their parents or grandparents were infants.

Poll: Nearly half of US parents believe spacing out vaccines is healthier Nearly half of US parents believe children are healthier when vaccines are spaced out and not given in one doctor’s visit, even as confidence in several well-established childhood vaccines remains high, according to a KFF Tracking Poll on Health Information and Trust. The poll, published today, also found partisan differences in parents’ views, with Republican and Republican-leaning parents more likely to endorse spacing out childhood vaccines and Democratic and Democratic-leaning parents more likely to say there is no strong evidence to support spacing. Views on COVID-19 vaccine safety also remain sharply divided by political party. The nationally representative survey included 1,328 adults who were interviewed online and by telephone from September 16 to 21, 2026. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 3 percentage points. Among surveyed parents, 48% endorsed spacing out vaccines and avoiding multiple shots in one visit, while 52% said there is no strong evidence that doing so is healthier. Parents who identified as Republican were particularly likely to favor vaccine spacing (69%). A similar number (68%) of Democratic-leaning parents said there was no strong evidence in support of spacing them out. The findings come after President Donald Trump’s August executive order calling for fewer diseases to be targeted by routine childhood vaccination and for vaccines to be spaced out across multiple doctor’s visits, including separating the combined measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine into individual shots. (The proposed changes currently remain blocked in federal courts.) Most adults (59%) had heard little or nothing at all about the administration’s latest efforts to change the childhood vaccination schedule. Forty percent of adults said they believe the proposed changes will have a negative effect on children’s health, compared with 12% who say they will benefit children. Thirty-eight percent said they were unsure whether the changes would be positive or negative. Still, eight in 10 adults and three-quarters of parents think the benefits of the MMR vaccine outweigh the risks. This sentiment persists across party lines: 83% of Democratic-leaning parents and 76% or Republican-leaning parents say they believe the benefits of MMR vaccines for children outweigh the risks. Even among parents who support the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) movement, 69% say the benefits outweigh the risks. Large majorities of adults across party lines also believe the polio vaccine is safe for children. Confidence in COVID vaccine safety during pregnancy fell to 39%, down from 53% in May 2022. Among women of childbearing age, confidence declined to 37%, compared with 48% in 2022. Declines occurred across party lines: “Notably, confidence in COVID-19 vaccine safety for pregnant people has decreased across partisans since 2022, including a 17-percentage point decrease in confidence among Democrats and a 15-percentage point decrease among Republicans,” notes the poll. One-third of adults have encountered the false claim that COVID vaccination during pregnancy increases miscarriage risk. Although research consistently supports the vaccines’ safety during pregnancy, just 8% identified the claim as “definitely false.” Nine percent called it “definitely true.” Most respondents fall in the “malleable middle” when it comes to the claim that COVID vaccination during pregnancy increases the risk of miscarriage, with 37% saying it’s “probably true” and 44% saying it’s “probably false.” Women of childbearing age also expressed uncertainty about this claim, with 40% saying it’s “probably true” and 42% saying it’s “probably false.”

Nigeria Confirms First Ebola Case in Woman Traveling from Uganda - NPR — Nigeria confirmed an Ebola case in its capital, Abuja, on Tuesday after a woman who arrived from Uganda tested positive for the virus, the Health Ministry said. The woman began showing symptoms on Oct. 7 and was admitted to a private hospital in Abuja on Oct. 11, where she was later diagnosed with Ebola. Health Minister Muhammad Pate said authorities had begun tracing 44 people identified as contacts of the patient. "We are doing everything possible to contain this case by tracing all the contacts the individual may have had," he said. Uganda had previously reported Ebola cases but it later declared itself free of the virus. Nigeria is the latest country to report an Ebola case as the latest outbreak spreads across the region. Kenya confirmed its first case earlier this month and has since recorded nine infections. Dr. Jean Kaseya, director general of the Africa Centers for Disease Control, said on X that "we are facing an extremely serious threat," with a fatality rate of nearly 50% of cases. "This Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak has already become the most geographically extensive in history, affecting several countries spread across three regions of Africa," he said. The Nigeria Centre for Disease Control said two weeks ago it was stepping up surveillance following the detection of Ebola in Kenya and strengthening the country's preparedness for a potential outbreak. "These efforts have focused on early detection, isolation and referral, laboratory diagnosis, infection prevention and control, contact tracing, risk communication and protection of health care workers," the agency said. Nigeria established an Ebola task force in June following the outbreak in Congo in mid-May. "We do not want a repeat of what happened during the last outbreak when a carrier entered the country, and everyone was scrambling to respond," Femi Gbajabiamila, chief of staff to President Bola Tinubu, said when the task force was announced. "We have covered a lot of ground and established structures to address any potential threat." The spread of Ebola beyond Congo has heightened longstanding fears among health authorities about the rapid transmission of the rare Bundibugyo virus, which has infected more than 9,000 people and killed more than 4,300 people.

Kenya reports more Ebola cases, all linked to initial patient - Kenya has now confirmed seven Ebola infections in people who had contact with a man who died after traveling from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) to Kenya during the first week of October, bringing the number of cases in Kenya to eight.  The latest patient is a 49-year-old person who attended to the initial patient and was already in quarantine. At least three other healthcare workers have been infected, as has a family member of the initial patient. So far there is no sign of any community spread.Over the weekend the Kenyan Ministry of Health said 128 of 130 known case contacts are being monitored in quarantine for 21 days.“We urge Kenyans to remain calm and stay vigilant as the government is doing everything possible to bring the outbreak under control,” the ministry said in a statement posted to X. “Intensive efforts are ongoing to trace and quarantine the two remaining contacts.” The Ebola outbreak in the DRC’s epicenter remains Ituri province. This week, North Kivu is issuing a one-week ban on people entering from Ituri province. Eight provinces have been affected with the Bundibugyo strain of the virus.DRC officials said over the weekend there are now 9,455 confirmed cases, including 4,561 deaths, for a case-fatality rate of 48.2%.In addition, new data from Doctors Without Borders (MSF) show that 24% of new Ebola patients in the DRC are children, and children face a disproportionately high death rate. In North Kivi, children under 5 years make up 24% of confirmed cases, in Ituri it’s 13%. Infants alone account for 13% of cases in North Kivu and 6% in Ituri.Moreover, Ebola treatment centers in those provinces are ill-equipped to offer supportive care to children. “General health facilities often lack the specialised exper tise, equipment, and infection prevention and control measures needed to identify and safely manage suspected cases,” said Stephanie Hoffmann, MS, a project coordinator for MSF in Butembo.And novel treatments and therapies, including newly launched vaccine trials, are not being offered to children. MSF is urging to include children in any upcoming Bundibugyo-targeting vaccine trials.

Ebola outbreak update through October 20 - 67 new confirmed cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) have been reported across three provinces: Ituri (37 cases), North Kivu (29 cases), and Tshopo (1 case), DRC health officials report for October 20. Among these, 23 community deaths were recorded. Additionally, 18 confirmed deaths occurred in Ebola Treatment Centers (ETCs) (14 in Ituri, 3 in Haut-Uélé, and 1 in North Kivu), bringing the total number of confirmed deaths reported during this period to 41. Furthermore, 21 patients (15 in Ituri and 6 in North Kivu) have been declared recovered after testing negative twice for EVD. As of October 20, 2026, the DRC has recorded a cumulative total of 9,704 confirmed cases, including 4,687 deaths—a case fatality rate of 48.3%. The province of Ituri remains the epicenter, accounting for 72.5% of all reported confirmed cases and 55.2% of the new confirmed cases. No new health zones have been affected in the last 24 hours. Consequently, 66 out of 178 health zones (37.1%), spread across eight provinces, have been affected since the start of the outbreak. Ituri has 28 affected health zones out of 36, followed by North Kivu (17/34), Haut-Uélé (7/13), Tshopo (7/23), Bas-Uélé (4/11), South Kivu (1/34), South Ubangi (1/16), and North Ubangi (1/11).

27 sickened in Salmonella outbreak linked to raw oysters | The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced a new Salmonella outbreak linked to raw oysters harvested by the Little Wicomico Oyster Company from the Little Wicomico River harvest area in Virginia. So far at least 27 people in 12 states have been sickened in the outbreak. Five people have been hospitalized, and no deaths have been reported. Pennsylvania has had the most illnesses, with eight, followed by New York with four and Virginia with three. Little Wicomico Oyster Company voluntarily recalled oysters harvested from September 18 through October 8, 2026. Illness-onset dates for case-patients range from May 29 to September 14, and 77% case-patients reported eating raw oysters in the days prior to illness. Recalled oysters were distributed to restaurants and retailers across the country, and the company said they have alerted customers of the outbreak. In addition to the recall, the Virginia Department of Health has also closed the Little Wicomico River harvest area as a precaution, the CDC said. “Little Wicomico Oyster Company has stopped harvesting from the affected area and is cooperating with public health officials. Oysters harvested from other Virginia growing areas are not part of this recall,” the agency said.

Cheese recall update in 13 states as FDA issues highest risk warning - The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issued its highest-risk warning for recalled Graziers raw milk cheese products on Monday, amid concerns over a multi-state E. coli outbreak that has sickened 13 people and hospitalized eight. The Class I classification, issued on Monday, applied to all affected Graziers raw milk cheese products manufactured by California-based Sierra Nevada Cheese Company, including Monterey Jack, jalapeño jack, medium cheddar and sharp cheddar varieties.A Class I recall is the FDA’s most serious category as it means there is a reasonable probability that using or being exposed to a recalled product could cause serious adverse health consequences or death.The recall affects products sold in retail packaging and larger formats supplied to food-service customers and wholesalers.Consumers were warned not to eat the cheeses, according to the recall information. The affected products were distributed in Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, New Jersey, Oregon, Texas, Washington and Wisconsin. The outbreak involves Escherichia coli O26, a strain of Shiga toxin-producing E. coli that can cause severe illness. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), 13 people across nine states had been infected as of September 25. Eight had been hospitalized and three had developed hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS), a potentially life-threatening complication that can cause kidney failure, but no deaths had been reported. More than half of those infected were children aged 5 or younger.The CDC said all nine people interviewed about their food consumption before becoming ill reported eating Graziers raw milk cheese, while genetic analysis also showed that bacteria collected from infected people were closely related, suggesting the illness came from the same source.

USDA announces nationwide meat recall—more than 1.5 million pounds of hot dogs, bacon, deli meat, and more affected --More than 1.5 million pounds of fully cooked meat and poultry products have been recalled nationwide, the USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) announced Saturday. The recall includes hot dogs, bacon, chicken sausage, deli meats, and other products sold under brands including Kayem, Al Fresco, and McKenzie.   More than 1.5 million pounds of meat products were recalled due to unsafe temperature storage. Storing meats at unsafe temperatures can lead to the growth of pathogens and bacteria.  Do not eat the recalled meats—toss or return them instead. Kayem Foods Inc. recalled the items after discovering a cooling system malfunction at one of its warehouses. The malfunction caused storage temperature deviations, according to the company. See the recalled items below: [long list] To check your package:

• Find the brand, product name, package size, UPC, and lot code.
• Compare those details with Kayem’s affected-product list or FSIS’s product list. A product name alone is not enough to identify an affected package.
• If you cannot read the code or are unsure whether your product is included, contact Kayem at 800-426-6100 or info@kayem.com.

No illnesses had been reported at the time of the FSIS announcement. Consumers should not eat affected products and should throw them away or return them. FSIS also urges anyone concerned about illness from the products to contact a healthcare provider.

Tens of thousands of US newborns could be exposed to hepatitis B at home, study suggests --Although many people are aware that newborns can be infected with hepatitis B from their mothers at birth, fewer realize that the infection also can be transmitted in the home. Yet a new study finds that 1.3% of children under age 5 years were exposed to someone in their household with hepatitis B, a highly contagious disease that can cause liver failure and cancer. Among the exposed children, more than half lived with someone with hepatitis B other than their mother, according to a study from Kaiser Permanente of Northern California. Children can be exposed to hepatitis B from their fathers, who are rarely tested for the virus, as well as grandparents, cousins, and others in the home. Some of these children missed the birth dose of hepatitis B vaccine—given before newborns leave the hospital—and remained at risk of infection in the first few months of life, before attending daycare or school, according to the study, which is scheduled to be released today y at IDWeek, a major infectious disease conference in Washington, DC.“It would be a tragedy if any infant is affected by a preventable infection,”   Although 1.3% of children may seem like a small percentage, that rate translates to 47,190 infants a year, considering that 3.63 million babies are born annually in the United States.  Researchers based their findings on medical records of people enrolled in Kaiser Permanente health insurance plans in northern California. The findings may not apply to other areas of the country or to people covered by other types of health insurance, Jacobson said. It’s possible the study undercounted the true rate of exposure to hepatitis B, because children could have been exposed to household members who have never been tested. Children could also have been exposed to hepatitis by household members who use other types of health insurance. The study authors do not know if any of the exposed children in the study developed hepatitis B,  Jacobson said, because children are not routinely screened for the virus.   The study “provides more proof of the continued need for universal hepatitis B vaccine birth dose in the US babies,” said Chari Cohen, DrPH, MPH, president of the Hepatitis B Foundation, a nonprofit educational and advocacy group. “You do not want to risk missing any babies who can be exposed during infancy or childhood,” said Cohen, who was not involved in the new study. “We have a chance to protect 100% of babies and children from a life-long virus that causes liver cancer and greatly increases risk of premature death.”Jacobson said she and her colleagues began the study last year after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) stopped recommending the hepatitis vaccine at birth for all newborns, instead recommending a “birth dose” only for babies whose mothers test positive for the virus or whose infection status is unknown. The decision downgraded the recommendation to shared decision making between parents and healthcare providers.A federal judge has blocked the CDC’s recent vaccine recommendations, finding that the changes likely violated a law that dictates how government decisions are made. The fate of the immunization schedule changes will be decided in a legal case against the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. by the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) and other medical groups. The AAP continues to recommend that all infants receive their first dose of hepatitis B vaccine on their first day of life.  Study participants included more than 158,000 children under age 5 years old on June 16, 2023, who were linked through their electronic medical records with their mother, and shared a street address with at least one other Kaiser Permanente Northern California member on that date. The researchers analyzed lab results and vaccination records through March 26, 2026. More than 2,000 (1.3%) of 158,000 children lived in a household with a person with an active hepatitis B infection, according to the study.  Of those children, 42% were exposed to hepatitis B from their moms at birth and 58% were exposed to the virus later by someone in their household.   All children in the study exposed at birth were vaccinated against hepatitis B within seven days, compared with 93.5% of kids exposed by household members, and 87% of unexposed children.“Hepatitis B vaccination coverage was very high overall, with 97% eventually receiving at least one hepatitis B vaccination dose,” Jacobson said. “However, 4.2% of the household-exposed children remained unvaccinated at 30 days of age, and some were never vaccinated before our study ended.”While 95% of babies exposed to hepatitis B at birth were tested for the virus, only 3.6% of household-exposed children were ever tested, along with 0.4% of unexposed children, Jacobson said.

Drug-resistant infections linked to $3.5 trillion in global economic losses in 2021 - New research highlights the economic toll of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) and the regions where that impact is most heavily felt. In a study presented this week at the IDWeek 2026 conference in Washington, DC, a team of Indian and US researchers estimated that AMR was linked to $3.5 trillion in economic losses worldwide in 2021. Of that amount, $835 billion in economic loss was directly caused by infections with drug-resistant bacteria—roughly $106 for every person on earth. “That would not have happened if the same infection had responded to standard antibiotics,” study author Hardik Desai, MBBS, a public health researcher at AB Plus Multispecialty Hospital in Ahmedabad, India, said at a press briefing last week. Desai co-led the study with Digantkumar Patel, MD, a hospitalist at Springfield Clinic in Illinois. Desai said that the human toll of AMR is already well-documented. The Global Research on Antimicrobial Resistance study has estimated that drug-resistant infections directly caused 1.27 million deaths in 2019 and could take more than 39 million lives by 2050 if left unchecked. He and Patel wanted to ask a different question, using language that budget makers might understand. “We already know that resistance kills more than a million people a year,” Desai said. “But deaths alone don’t move finance ministers.” The findings are based on an analysis of 2021 Global Burden of Disease data on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from drug-resistant infections, combined with World Bank gross domestic product (GDP) and population data. DALYs represent the number of healthy life years lost because of illness, disability, or early death. The data were applied to a framework—value of lost welfare (VLW)—that estimates economic losses associated with DALYs. The analysis focused on the impact of 12 infectious syndromes and 22 bacterial pathogens in 21 regions of the world. Overall, the researchers estimated there were 42.6 million DALYs in 2021 directly attributable to AMR, and 177.7 million that were associated with drug-resistant infections—meaning those infections contributed to disability, illness, or early death. That equated to a VLW of $3.5 trillion, or 2.25% of global GDP. But that amount is not simply the cash loss to an economy, Desai explained. “It is a value of human life…a measure of human loss expressed in money so that it can sit next to other spending decisions,” he said. The largest dollar losses were in South Asia ($101 billion), East Asia ($82 billion), and North America, including the United States and Canada ($70 billion). But countries in Western and Eastern sub-Saharan Africa suffered the greatest proportional impact, with economic losses accounting for 1.42% and 0.96%, respectively, of their GDP. The biggest contributors were bloodstream infections ($355 billion) and lower respiratory infections ($261 billion), which together accounted for 74% of economic losses directly attributable to AMR. These are the type of infections that fill intensive care units in every country, rich or poor, Desai said. The leading drug-resistant pathogens were Klebsiella pneumoniae ($130 billion), Streptococcus pneumoniae ($122 billion), Acinetobacter baumannii ($120 billion), Escherichia coli ($117 billion), Staphylococcus aureus ($115 billion), and Pseudomonas aeruginosa ($75 billion). Desai said knowing which pathogens are the biggest contributors will help policy makers prioritize investments in efforts to reduce AMR. Some of the tools are already available, like pneumococcal conjugate vaccines, which can prevent infections caused by S pneumoniae and in turn reduce the need for antibiotics and lessen the selection pressure for resistant bacteria. Other critical areas of investment include infection prevention and control, rapid diagnostics, antibiotic stewardship, and antibiotic access for low-resource countries. While low-resource regions bore the highest economic burden in their analysis, Desai said the findings “matter for every country listening.” “The drug-resistant bacteria don’t carry a passport, and neither do the costs,” he said. “A resistant strain in one region reaches hospitals in the United States and Europe through travel, trade, food, and medical care. So the burden in low-resource regions today is a warning for everyone.”

Like humans, some primates become cautious of germs in the wake of a viral outbreak In the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, many households wiped down groceries with disinfectant before putting them away. Hand sanitizer was in short supply. With little information on how the virus spread, people became more cautious of germs from other people. A new University of California San Diego study suggests that humans may not be alone in changing behavior after experiencing a disease threat. Researchers found that macaque monkeys that had lived through a deadly disease outbreak became significantly more cautious about food that appeared contaminated, even though they did not know how the disease had spread. The findings suggest that pathogen-avoidance behavior can be shaped by experience, offering clues about the evolutionary roots of disgust. The study, published in Royal Society Open Science, provides new insight into what scientists call the "behavioral immune system"—a collection of behaviors that help animals avoid infection before the body's biological immune system ever has to respond. "We can show now, in nonhuman primates, that this is the same for them," said Federico Rossano, an associate professor in the Department of Cognitive Science at UC San Diego's School of Social Sciences and senior author of the study. "Even with no knowledge of how disease is transmitted, being exposed to others getting sick and dying changes the likelihood of engaging in behaviors that potentially could lead to some form of sickness." The research grew out of an unexpected event at a primate sanctuary in southern Texas, where the researchers conduct behavioral studies. The sanctuary is home to several groups of Japanese macaques descended from monkeys originally brought from Japan to Texas in 1972. Because the groups live in separate enclosures, the researchers had a rare opportunity to compare animals with similar backgrounds that had experienced very different social and disease environments. In 2020, staff confirmed the presence of simian retrovirus Type II, which can cause an AIDS-like immunodeficiency, in some of the sanctuary's Japanese macaque groups. The virus was primarily transmitted through bites and scratches and caused severe illness and death in some animals. The sanctuary responded by separating groups and implementing strict testing and quarantine measures. That created an unusual natural experiment. Three groups had experienced the outbreak. One group had not. The researchers then tested 55 macaques to see how they responded to a choice between food placed on a clean wooden surface and food placed on a surface covered with real macaque feces sealed under a layer of clear epoxy, to preserve visual cues while removing the smell and any risk of infection. Within the outbreak-exposed groups, some individuals had been infected while others had lived alongside sick monkeys without becoming infected themselves. This allowed the researchers to ask whether experiencing an outbreak—even without becoming sick—could change the animals' behavior. In some trials, the clean surface was replaced with a brightly colored kitchen sponge to determine whether the animals were simply avoiding unfamiliar objects. Earlier research had shown that macaques aren't necessarily deterred by contamination when the payoff is tempting: given a favorite treat like a peanut, wild Japanese macaques would still eat food off a feces-covered surface, while avoiding it for less valued food like wheat grains. However, the researchers found that macaques from groups that had experienced the outbreak were far less likely to eat the food from the contaminated surface. They ate from what appeared to be a contaminated surface in just 47% of trials, compared with 79% of trials for monkeys from the group that had never experienced the outbreak. Importantly, monkeys from outbreak-exposed groups behaved similarly whether or not they themselves had been infected. That suggests the behavioral change was associated with having lived through the outbreak, rather than actually experiencing illness.

California accounts for 25% of all West Nile virus cases in the US  The California Department of Public Health (CDPH) reported 80 new West Nile virus (WNV) positive human cases reported in the state last week from the following counties: Fresno (2), Glenn (1), Los Angeles (59), Orange (11), Riverside (1), San Joaquin (1), Stanislaus (3), Tulare (1), and Yolo (1). This brings the total human cases in California to 378 from 24 counties. This number accounts for 25.7 percent of the total WNV cases in the United States (1471). 23 WNV-related fatalities have been reported to CDPH this year from 9 jurisdictions: Butte (3), Glenn (2), Kings (1), Los Angeles (6), Orange (5), Sacramento (2), Stanislaus (1), Tuolumne (1), and Yolo (2). Of the 378 case patients, 321 (85%) had neuroinvasive disease. The median age of case patients was 66 years and 254 (67%) of the case patients were male. In Los Angeles County, the Department of Public Health has documented 249 West Nile virus (WNV) human infections and 12 deaths. The 378 cases statewide this year is higher than 59 cases reported in 2025 and the 110 case 5 year average. West Nile virus is the most common and serious vector-borne disease in California. There have been more than 8,000 human cases and over 400 deaths reported in California since 2003. The mosquitoes that spread WNV are found throughout the state.

Florida: Dengue fever cases top 400, 1st human EEE case reported - State health officials report 57 additional locally acquired dengue fever cases during the week ending October 17, bringing the state total to 425. Cases have been reported from 11 counties: Brevard, Broward, Citrus (2), Hillsborough (346), Manatee, Miami-Dade (9), Orange (8), Palm Beach, Pasco (4), Pinellas (51), and Polk. Of the 395 cases serotyped, 393 typed as dengue virus-2. Thirty-two cases of dengue were reported this week. In 2026, 320 travel-associated dengue cases have been reported: Alachua, Bay, Brevard (2), Broward (20), Collier (5), Duval (2), Hendry, Hernando, Hillsborough (18), Lake, Lee (14), Manatee (2), Marion, Miami-Dade (200), Monroe (2), Orange (7), Osceola (3), Palm Beach (13), Pasco, Pinellas (4), Polk (4), Sarasota (2), Seminole (4), St. Johns (3), St. Lucie (7), and Walton. Six cases were reported in non-Florida residents. During the week ending October 10, Florida officials reported a human case of Eastern equine encephalitis (EEE). The case was from Leon County. To date, 7 horses have been infected with EEE.

Seminole County confirms locally-acquired case of dengue fever - A human case of locally-acquired dengue has been confirmed in Seminole County, according to the Florida Department of Health. State officials issued a health advisory Wednesday and said the department is coordinating with Seminole County Mosquito Control on surveillance and prevention efforts. Officials did not say where within the county the case was confirmed. Florida is seeing its largest dengue outbreak in years. The health department has documented hundreds of locally-acquired cases across several counties, including Hillsborough, Polk, Orange and Brevard. Dengue is a virus spread through bites from two species of mosquitoes, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, according to Florida health officials. Both are found in Florida. When someone is infected, it can lead to dengue fever, a sometimes painful, debilitating disease. While rare, if symptoms are left untreated, it can be deadly. Symptoms typically appear 3-14 days after being bitten by an infected mosquito, and usually last 4-7 days, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Symptoms are similar to those of influenza and other viruses:

• Sudden fever
• Severe headache
• Eye pain
• Muscle and joint pain
• Bleeding
• Vomiting and diarrhea

Health officials are urging residents to take precautions to prevent mosquito bites. The department said residents should use insect repellent on exposed skin or clothing, remove standing water to stop mosquitoes from breeding and keep doors and windows closed.

CDC Issues Emergency Response for Florida Dengue Outbreak - The CDC has issued a Level 3 emergency response for dengue outbreaks in Florida and another U.S. territory, the agency's eighth emergency response activation this year. Florida is in the midst of its largest dengue outbreak in decades, with 745 cases this year; 425 of those have been locally acquired, and most are concentrated in the Tampa area. That figure marks the largest dengue outbreak in the continental U.S. since 1935. "Given the widespread presence of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes and with recent hurricane-related rainfall, continued domestic transmission remains a concern," Chris Braden, MD, acting director of the CDC's National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID), wrote in an email that was shared with MedPage Today. Braden acknowledged the extraordinary number of responses managed by NCEZID staff this year. "I know many of you are already supporting active responses across the agency, and I am deeply grateful for your continued agility and dedication," he wrote. Other emergency responses included Cyclospora, Ebola, measles, hantavirus, and New World screwworm outbreaks, along with the World Cup safety activation and the Potomac River wastewater spill activation near Washington, D.C. The other U.S. territory covered in Braden's email is the Republic of the Marshall Islands, which has declared a state of emergency on its two largest islands, Ebeye and Majuro. Braden said the CDC "has been providing programmatic support and deployed an Epi-Aid team." During a call with clinicians on Thursday, CDC experts said the locally acquired dengue cases in Florida primarily involve DENV-2 (there are four serotypes). About half (54%) of cases are in men, and the median age was 43, with 45% occurring in those ages 30 to 49. Overall, 47% of cases required hospitalization, CDC said, which may indicate under-reporting of cases. Locally acquired cases of dengue aren't unheard of in Florida, but this year's numbers are significant, experts said. "Historically, dengue hasn't been a problem for the continental U.S. because we didn't have the mosquitoes that are capable of transmitting the virus," Adam Waickman, PhD, a dengue expert at SUNY Upstate Medical University in Syracuse, New York, told MedPage Today. "The reason we're seeing this sustained transmission now is that the species of mosquito that are capable of transmitting the infection are now much more prevalent in Florida." In addition to Aedes aegypti, Aedes albopictus can also transmit dengue, but the former is the more competent vector, Waickman said. Its range has extended as far north as Virginia, he explained, and the range of Aedes albopictus reaches into Pennsylvania. The vast majority of dengue infections -- 70% to 90% -- are asymptomatic, Waickman said, "so the numbers we're seeing in Florida are just the tip of the iceberg in terms of who's actually being infected." Unfortunately, routine spraying systems aren't very effective against the mosquitoes that transmit dengue because these bugs are "highly adapted to urban settings and can be found in and around homes" where spraying campaigns don't necessarily reach, he pointed out. "Wearing mosquito repellent, wearing long sleeves, making sure you're covering up to avoid mosquito bites, that's the most effective thing you can do to avoid getting exposed," he noted. Dengue vaccines exist, but none are licensed in the U.S. Sanofi Pasteur's vaccine was found to increase the risk of severe disease via antibody-dependent enhancement in patients who had never been infected with dengue before. There's an increased risk of severe disease with a second dengue infection, and for some patients, the vaccine acted like the first infection, Waickman explained.

First ever human case of livestock-related Shamonda virus identified in France - For the first time, a person has contracted Shamonda virus (SHAV), according to the French government. Typically, the orthobunyavirus infects only farm animals. This summer, for the first time, the virus was found in livestock in Europe, per the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC).  “Until now, the Shamonda virus was considered non-transmissible to humans,” said a translated news release from the French Ministry of Agriculture and Food Sovereignty. “This patient’s infection with the Shamonda virus thus constitutes the first documented and reported detection of the virus in humans.” The patient had a “serious [underlying] illness that made them more susceptible to infection and complications than the general population,” the ECDC said. Since the man died in a Lyon hospital in early October, experts have been investigating whether the virus led to his death and how he contracted it. The patient had developed neurologic complications that experts believe was connected to the SHAV infection. In livestock, the virus can cause fever, diarrhea, loss of appetite, reduced milk yield, stillbirth, and congenital abnormalities. No antiviral treatment or vaccine is available.Infected Culicoides midges, also known as biting midges, typically transmit SHAV to livestock and from animal to animal. The ECDC said the species involved in this human case is currently unknown. Biting midges are normally more active from spring to fall and become less active as the weather cools.  “The risk to the general public appears very low for several reasons,” Tom Solomon, PhD, told the Science Media Centre in the United Kingdom. “Shamonda virus has been circulating in animals, particularly cattle, but also sheep, goats, horses and alpacas, for many years, yet this is the first recognized human infection,” he added. “This suggests that transmission to humans is extremely unusual.”

First Human Case of Livestock Virus Shamonda Reported- A first known human case of Shamonda virus infection has been detected in France, the country's health authorities said on Thursday. The virus was detected in a severely immunocompromised patient who was being treated for a serious illness in Lyon and died in early October. France's health ministry said that based on current knowledge of the virus, no public health risk to the general population has been identified to date. Until now, the Shamonda virus was considered incapable of infecting humans. "This is therefore an exceptional case involving a severely immunocompromised patient," according to the ministry. Shamonda virus is transmitted to animals by biting midges. First detected in Nigeria in the mid-1960s, it has been reported sporadically in cattle in West, East, and Southern Africa, as well as in Japan. It was identified for the first time in Europe this summer on cattle farms. The patient was likely infected through a midge bite in eastern France, where the virus was reported to be circulating among animals during the spring and summer, the ministry said. French health authorities have notified international health bodies, including the World Health Organization and the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.

Over 60% of Connecticut horses exposed to Leptospira bacteria, study finds - Leptospirosis is a neglected zoonotic disease caused by pathogenic Leptospira bacteria and can affect humans and animals, including horses. A new study published in BMC Veterinary Research analyzed how common exposure to Leptospira is in horses in Connecticut and what strains they had been exposed to. This work was led by Dr. Camila Hamond, assistant research professor in the Department of Pathobiology and Veterinary Science in the College of Agriculture, Health and Natural Resources (CAHNR). Equine leptospirosis can result in abortion, stillbirth, neonatal death, placentitis and equine recurrent uveitis (ERU), or "moon blindness." ERU is a common cause of ocular pain and blindness in horses, and it can lead to decreased sports performance. Foals are also particularly susceptible to acute illness. "Horses play an important role in the lives of Connecticut residents in the form of leisure pursuits and related business activities," Hamond says. "If horses have reproductive problems, this can impact production and potentially the [economy] too." The UConn team tested nearly 400 samples for 40 different strains of Leptospira. Dr. Elsio Wunder's group received the samples from the Connecticut Veterinary Medical Diagnostic Laboratory (CVMDL), a nationally accredited veterinary diagnostic laboratory located at UConn Storrs. The CVMDL shared samples that had been submitted by horse owners to test for other diseases. The results showed that 61.5% of samples had antigens associated with one strain of Leptospira. The most detected serogroups were Djasiman, Grippotyphosa, Australis, Pomona and Icterohaemorrhagiae. "The test we used can identify animals exposed to Leptospira, but does not differentiate between an antibody response from natural infection or vaccine response," Hamond says. "These results do not mean [that percentage of horses were] infected; it means [they were] exposed." There is a vaccine available to protect horses against Leptospira. However, it only targets the serogroup Pomona. In this study, Pomona only accounted for 10% of positive results. It is not clear if the antigens were a result of vaccination or natural infection. Horses can come into contact with pathogenic Leptospira through direct contact with infected animals or contaminated environments. The pathogen has the ability to survive in suitable moist environmental conditions, facilitating spillover infections and disease transmission to humans and other susceptible animals. In the United States, most human cases of leptospirosis are associated with occupational exposure to infected animals, recreational exposures and individuals living in economically disadvantaged inner-city environments. Asymptomatic horses can shed different species and serogroups of Leptospira via urine. "This is a problem, because they can shed it and contaminate the environment, contaminate humans, and we can get acute disease," Hamond says. "This is why the concept of One Health, which explores the interconnectedness of human, environmental and animal disease, is so important."

Quick takes: Minnesota measles clusters, New World screwworm in elk, Salmonella tied to oysters | CIDRAP

• Minnesota is reporting 25 recent measles cases in two clusters, raising the state total to 42 infections in 2026. All 25 new cases were in unvaccinated people, including six in Fillmore County and 19 in Todd County. “There are pockets of unvaccinated or under-vaccinated people across Minnesota, and anyone who isn't vaccinated against measles is at risk—especially right now,” the Minnesota Department of Health said in a statement. The United States has seen more than 4,400 measles cases so far this year, the most in more than three decades.
• Yesterday state and federal officials in Texas confirmed the first detection of New World screwworm (NWS) in US wildlife. The case involves a female elk at a game ranch in Pecos County. NWS has been detected in Texas livestock since it was first reported in June. Officials are warning hunters to look for signs of NWS in animals, including maggots in wounds and infestations near the nose, mouth, ears, eyes, or genital areas. The parasitic fly burrows in wounds and orifices of warm-blooded animals.
• The Virginia Department of Health yesterday said 55 Salmonella Telelkebir cases in 19 states have been reported in an outbreak linked to eating raw oysters, but the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is still reporting only 27 cases in 12 states. The waters in the Little Wicomico River in Northumberland County, Virginia, are still closed to harvesting of oysters and clams because of the outbreak.

CWD digest: Disease reaches new areas in Wyoming, Wisconsin, as Michigan detects case on farm | CIDRAP --Chronic wasting disease (CWD) has spread to a new deer hunt area in Wyoming, another Wisconsin county, and a Michigan farm, state officials announced this week.

• Wyoming: “The Wyoming Game and Fish Department has confirmed the presence of chronic wasting disease in Deer Hunt Area 141 in the Pinedale Region,” a departmental news release said. “Deer Hunt Area 141 is bordered by CWD-positive deer hunt areas 128 (positive in 2016), 142 (positive in 2020), 154 (positive in 2022) and 155 (positive in 2022).” The release gave no other details. The Pinedale region is in the western part of the state, in the upper Green River Valley in Sublette County. It is not the county’s first detection, with a case identified in Elk Hunt Area 98 in January 2025.
• Wisconsin: The Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources has confirmed the first positive CWD test in Marinette County, in a wild 3-year-old buck. The county is in the northeastern part of the state and borders Michigan’s Upper Peninsula. As a result of the detection, the current feeding and baiting ban in Marinette will be extended for another three years.
• Michigan: The Michigan Department of Agriculture and Rural Development has detected CWD in a farmed cervid (member of the deer family) in Hillsdale County. The case was identified through the state’s CWD surveillance program, according to an Agriculture and Rural Development press release. Hillsdale County is in the south-central part of Michigan’s Lower Peninsula, bordering Indiana and Ohio. CWD infections in farmed cervids have also been found in Calhoun, Kent, Lake, Mackinac, Mecosta, Montcalm, Newaygo, and Osceola counties.

CWD is a disease of cervids such as deer, elk, and moose. It is caused by infectious misfolded proteins called prions, which spread from animal to animal and through environmental contamination. While no human cases have been documented, experts fear it could cross the species barrier.

A parasite carried by one-third of humanity can't reproduce if one key protein is disabled - A protein discovered in a Virginia Tech–led study may open a gateway to treatments for a parasite responsible for a deadly disease in immunocompromised people. The team led by Raj Gaji, assistant professor of parasitology at the Virginia-Maryland College of Veterinary Medicine working in the Center for One Health Research, identified a protein the team named DDP that helps Toxoplasma gondii build its offspring. When researchers switched it off, the parasites stopped multiplying entirely. Because cells elsewhere throughout the human body do not contain the protein, DDP offers a promising target for drugs that could attack the parasite while leaving the patient's own cells alone. The study is published in mBio. "This is the first time this protein has been identified," said Gaji, who worked with collaborators across Virginia Tech and one at Johns Hopkins in the study. "And we now have a clue about what its function could be." About one-third of the world's human population carries the parasite, most without knowing it. It completes the sexual phase of its life cycle in cats, and people typically become infected by eating undercooked meat from infected animals or consuming food or water contaminated with cat feces. It can also pass from mother to child during pregnancy. In healthy people, the parasite lies dormant in the brain for life. When immunity falters, such as in people living with HIV or organ transplant patients taking immunosuppressive drugs, it can reawaken and multiply. No vaccine exists. Drugs for the acute infection are toxic, and no drug can touch the dormant form. The parasite belongs to the same family as Neospora caninum, which can cause neurological disease in dogs and spontaneous abortions in cattle. When the team inserted the Neospora version of DDP into Toxoplasma, it performed the same job, suggesting that a single approach could work against multiple parasites affecting both people and animals. DDP stands for DIX-DnaJ domain-containing protein, named for the two molecular building blocks it combines. Human cells contain proteins with one building block or the other, but never both together. The pairing appears only in Toxoplasma's parasite family and a few related microorganisms. The protein's job is tied to the parasite's unusual way of reproducing. Most cells, including human cells, multiply by splitting in two. Toxoplasma instead assembles two daughter parasites inside itself, recycling its own materials into them until the mother cell disappears. Its first step is building a scaffold called the inner membrane complex, which forms the structural walls of each new daughter. DDP acts as a delivery system for that construction project, helping move materials from the parasite's Golgi, the cell's packaging and shipping center, to the daughter cells taking shape. The protein surfaced during Gaji's ongoing study of a parasite enzyme called TKL1, which controls which genes the parasite turns on. When the team deleted TKL1 and examined the genes that changed in response, one stood out because nothing was known about it. Because the parasite can't survive without DDP, the researchers couldn't simply delete the gene to learn what it does. Instead, they attached a molecular tag that caused the protein to break down whenever they added a specific chemical. Without DDP, the parasites could still copy and divide their genetic material, but they couldn't build the framework for their offspring. Restoring a working copy of the protein restored reproduction. "The root cause of pathology with this parasite is the way it destroys the human cell—by going in, dividing within that cell, forming multiple daughter cells and then coming out," Gaji said. "It can cause tremendous tissue damage, and that's why it is important to identify parasite proteins that are important for its division." . Next, the team will identify the other proteins DDP works alongside, which could reveal additional drug targets, and study the protein's structure to find small molecules that block it. Developing a drug will take years, but the path now has a clear starting point. "If we can effectively neutralize that particular protein," Gaji said, "these parasites will fail to divide."

Scientists are growing human brain tissue in living mice—could this make their welfare harder to assess? - What happens when scientists start changing the brain—the very system through which an animal's mental states are expressed in behavior?   In a recent study published in Nature, researchers implanted human brain organoids—small, simplified structures grown from human stem cells—into the brains of living mice. Over time, these organoids developed and integrated with the mouse nervous system.Transplanting organoids composed of human cells into animals, including their brains, is not new. However, previous experiments faced an obstacle: human brain cells grow much more slowly than mouse brain cells, and so organoids are quickly "outcompeted" before they can fully integrate with the mouse brain. In the new study, scientists genetically altered mice so that parts of their brain did not develop, then transplanted the human organoids into the vacant space. The idea of creating human-animal chimeras—animals containing human cells—raises ethical questions, particularly when involving the brain. Various philosophers have argued that as the proportion of human brain tissue increases, we should consider whether the animal could acquire humanlike mental capacities—and whether this should change how we treat it. But I argue that serious questions about our ability to recognize animal suffering will arise long before mice gain increased intelligence. What is it like to be a mouse? The philosopher Thomas Nagel asked a version of this question about bats. He argued that conscious beings have a specific experience of the world, but that others cannot access that experience from the outside. Instead, we must infer what others experience. With animals, we do this through their behavior and physiology. But this approach assumes that we understand how what we observe relates to what the animal experiences. There is nothing morally important about a cell simply because it came from a human. Imagine two mice with identical mental lives and cognitive abilities, one produced using transplanted human cells and the other through a modification involving only mouse cells. It is difficult to see why the first should matter more simply because some of its cells are human. If chimeras pose a moral problem, it is more plausibly because of changes to their cognitive capacities than because they blur a species boundary. There are good reasons to doubt that a mouse containing human brain cells could develop anything resembling human intelligence. This is because humanlike cognition does not emerge simply from having enough human neural cells. A mouse containing human cortical neurons still has mouse sensory systems, a mouse body and develops according to species-specific processes. All of these factors impose constraints on the kinds of cognitive capacities it might acquire.Animal welfare science depends on interpretation. A mouse cannot report that it is stressed or in pain, so researchers rely on behavioral and physiological indicators. Changes in nesting, social interaction or facial expressions associated with pain, for example, can provide evidence about mouse welfare.  Changing an animal's brain complicates these interpretations. This is because it alters the very biological system responsible for generating an animal's experiences, and for producing much of the behavior through which we infer those experiences.  A mouse might still seem to behave "like a mouse" even as we become less certain that its behavior accurately tells us how it feels. In the recent Nature study, researchers reported that mice which received the organoid implant performed on a par with healthy control mice on short-term memory tasks (such as navigating a maze). The researchers did not observe any evidence of altered behavior or increased intelligence.  This is reassuring. But suppose a chimera grooms less than an ordinary mouse. Researchers can still measure that difference accurately, but interpreting it as evidence of distress means we're assuming that grooming retains roughly the same relationship to the animal's experiences as it does in an ordinary mouse.  The same applies to the observation of "normal" mouse behavior. Since we don't know exactly how changing the brain will change behavior, this could make it harder to recognize if the indicators of poor welfare we rely upon are no longer accurate.

Venomous primate thought lost to science for nearly a century turns up in gardens and on roads across Indonesia  - A big-eyed, venomous primate that had not been documented in scientific literature since the 1930s has been hiding in plain sight on the Indonesian island of Bangka, turning up in backyards, along roadsides and on power lines and prompting local residents who find them to call the Alobi Wildlife Rescue Center for help. A new study published in the scientific journal Spixiana confirms that the Bangka slow loris, one of Re:wild's most wanted lost primates, still survives across much of the island.. The evidence comes from more than 90 Bangka slow lorises that Alobi rescued between 2015 and 2025. The Alobi center co-authored the published study with the Haus des Meeres Aqua Terra Zoo in Vienna and the Taman Safari Prigen Conservation Breeding Ark. The study's publication coincides with the celebration of Lost Species Month in October. The Bangka slow loris is classified as critically endangered (possibly extinct) by the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Although scientists had not documented the species in nearly a century, it was never lost to the people of Bangka. For more than a decade, Alobi has been rescuing slow lorises reported by residents and local authorities across the island, caring for the animals and returning those that recover to protected forest. Until now, those encounters had not made their way into the scientific literature. The study began with a conversation in Java. While visiting the Taman Safari Prigen Conservation Breeding Ark, study co-author Timon Glaw of the Haus des Meeres Aqua Terra Zoo learned from conservationist Jochen Menner that the Bangka slow loris was listed as critically endangered (possibly extinct) by the IUCN Red List and was among Re:wild's most wanted lost primates. Menner connected him with Alobi, where he learned that the rescue center had something the scientific record did not: documented encounters with the species. That discovery brought Alobi, Haus des Meeres Aqua Terra Zoo and the Taman Safari Prigen Conservation Breeding Ark together to analyze the records and publish the new study. According to the study, Alobi rescued Bangka slow lorises in all four regencies of Bangka Island and in the city of Pangkal Pinang, which suggests the species may still live across much of the island. Of the more than 90 slow lorises Alobi rescued, 86 recovered and were released at seven sites on Bangka. Alobi's team chose the release sites carefully, focusing on the island's larger forest fragments that can still provide good habitat and have some level of legal or practical protection. "We now know the species has survived in several parts of Bangka, and we urgently need a long-term conservation strategy built on population surveys, genetic studies and, above all, protection of its remaining habitat. The next challenge is to make sure it does not actually become extinct." Bangka Island is home to more than 1 million people. According to the study, human settlements, roads and power lines are significant threats to the species. Slow lorises are also a target for the pet trade across their range in Asia. The study's authors recommend a conservation program on Bangka that protects suitable habitat and continues monitored releases following IUCN Species Survival Commission guidelines. They also propose a conservation breeding program that could help conservationists learn more about the species' biology and behavior. Next steps include population surveys, genetic studies and tracking how released slow lorises fare once they are back in the forest. Slow lorises are among the world's most unusual primates. They are the only primates known to be venomous: They lick a gland on the inside of their upper arm and mix its secretion with saliva, producing a bite that can be painful and cause swelling. Slow lorises have huge, round eyes for seeing in the dark, a comb of specialized lower teeth for grooming, and they move slowly, silently and deliberately through the trees so they blend in at night. The Bangka slow loris, a small, reddish-backed loris with a pale facial mask, was first scientifically described in 1906 but was only recognized as its own species in 2013.

Feral—and threatened? Endangered camels, banteng and hog deer have found an unexpected refuge in Australia  - Millions of large feral animals roam Australia. Pigs, camels, deer, horses, water buffalo, cattle and goats were introduced deliberately as transport, livestock or to hunt. Many have since established wild populations.   Governments spend millions every year trying to keep feral animal numbers down because these animals can have strong effects on ecosystems by eating plants and trampling. In recent decades, populations of these largely herbivorous feral species have grown.Dozens of native species have gone extinct since colonization and many others are in decline. In response, conservationists have rightly focused on reducing threats to surviving species to stave off further extinctions. Feral animals are thought to contribute to the problem, alongside fragmented habitats, climate change and the end of most First Nations' fire regimes.  But there's a paradox here. Some feral animals are abundant in Australia—but threatened, endangered or extinct in the wild in their original regions. For these species, Australia is acting as a last refuge. Wild herds of dromedaries (one-humped camels) haven't roamed the deserts of North Africa and the Middle East for about 2,000 years. The species is now considered extinct in the wild. It survived as a domesticated animal—until Australia imported camels as pack animals for the dry interior. In the early 20th century, many were left to fend for themselves. Large wild herds of dromedaries once again roam, but this time in Australia's arid rangelands and deserts. Other large endangered herbivores roaming Australia include banteng, water buffalo, horses, donkeys and three species of deer. Many of these have domesticated populations in other countries, but are threatened with extinction in the wild. Banteng are especially noteworthy. Endemic to Southeast Asia, these wild bovines were brought to Australia's tropical north to provide meat and milk for an attempted British settlement on the Cobourg Peninsula near Darwin. When the settlers withdrew, the banteng were left behind. They thrived. In modern times, banteng have become critically endangered in their home range due to hunting, habitat loss and disease. One of their most important strongholds is now the Northern Territory. Of the six deer species introduced to Australia, three are at risk globally. In the 1860s, hog deer were introduced in Victoria as a game species. They, too, are now endangered in their original range in South and Southeast Asia. Javan rusa deer and sambar deer are considered vulnerable and declining in their native ranges, but both have well-established populations in Australia. For decades, Australian authorities have treated feral animals as pests to be controlled or eradicated. These actions are driven by care for Australia's native species. Free-roaming deer, cattle and camels can compete with native species and livestock for food, as do all large wild herbivores. In response, large numbers of dromedaries, deer and banteng are shot or poisoned every year. But is this the right approach, given that Australian populations of these animals may represent an unexpected insurance policy against extinction? Globally, around 20% of introduced mammal species are threatened in their native range, while roughly 50% of all introduced megafauna (animals weighing over 45 kilograms (99 pounds)) are either threatened or extinct where they originally evolved.Debate over introduced species is often polarized. Many conservationists argue they should be controlled because they threaten native wildlife, agriculture and ecosystems.Others argue conservation should value all species in a world of global reshuffling, particularly when introduced populations may help prevent extinction.Both arguments have merit. The challenge is to avoid reducing the issue to a simple choice: kill or protect.European rabbits are endangered in their native range in Western Europe.  But Australia's rabbits can have strong effects on soil and chow through plants, particularly in land cleared for farming. Blanket protection of Australia's rabbits would have little support. By contrast, there's a case to be made to protect banteng. Too often, there's little space for these difficult questions to be raised and worked through in conservation. Eradication is no longer the goal for most introduced species. Few see the eradication of all feral rabbits, cats, foxes, camels, deer, goats, horses and pigs from the continent as a possibility. Management has often shifted, quietly, toward containment, damage reduction or local control. We should be more explicit about this reality. Eradication makes most sense on islands, inside fenced reserves or when an introduced population is small, new and causing abrupt changes. Once a species is widespread, long established, hard to remove or globally important, we should give up on eradication. Instead, we could ask whether introduced species are the drivers of a changing environment—or passengers. For instance, as farms and cities expand, habitat becomes fragmented. Dingoes are often killed to protect livestock. These changes can make herbivores (feral and native) more abundant by creating edge habitat with novel food sources, while foxes can benefit from fewer dingoes. Conservation authorities might profit from focusing on these drivers, rather than running expensive culling campaigns every year. What might we discover if we wrestled with these complexities openly and transparently to understand which feral species might have conservation value? In recent research, we examined what conservation of threatened feral populations could look like. We found conservation priorities wouldn't change much. The main change would be that some landscapes in Europe, the southwestern United States and central Australia would become more globally valuable as a way to prevent extinction of species, such as fallow deer and the African wild ass. Moving to recognize banteng and other species as worthy of some protection in Australia wouldn't overturn existing conservation work. What would change is the story we tell. Rather than thinking of Australia as a land where the richness of nature is dwindling, we could also think of it as an unexpected refuge for species that are threatened elsewhere—and recovering here. Wild dromedaries no longer roam the deserts of the Middle East and North Africa. Banteng and hog deer are vanishing from the rainforests and plains of their original homes. Australia may be the last place on Earth to see these species wild and free. Don't we have responsibilities to protect them?

Deep-Sea Species Struggle to Recover After Deepwater Horizon Spill - -Across hundreds of miles of the northern Gulf of Mexico, a deep-water ecosystem collapsed after the massive 2011 Deepwater Horizon oil and gas spill, and recovery is uncertain, new research concludes.The study, published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, found that animal populations, including octopus, krill, squid and shrimp declined by 60 to 85 percent in the three-and-a-half years after the spill, with few signs of recovery since. Krill and lanternfish, both foundational species in the Gulf’s food web, were among the hardest hit. The findings also suggest that the die-off is causing genetic bottlenecks that could further hinder ecosystem recovery.The researchers identified it as the “fastest and most severe faunal decline reported for Earth’s largest ecosystem type” ever documented. The widespread die-off of marine organisms may also reduce the ocean’s ability to transport carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to the deep sea. After ruling out other factors, such as water temperature and oxygen levels, the researchers identified the Deepwater Horizon blowout as “the most parsimonious explanation” for the ecosystem’s collapse. Comprehensive natural resource damage assessments and restoration efforts involving federal, state and tribal trustees are still underway. In 2016, BP agreed to a $20.8 billion settlement, including up to $8.8 billion for environmental restoration.Remote ocean depths and habitats miles below the surface may seem buffered from the impacts of human activity, the authors wrote, but their findings suggest an industrial disaster pushed part of it into a diminished state with “limited resilience to facilitate recovery.” They said their findings also show that proposed industrial deep-sea mining could damage the ecosystem before baseline conditions are assessed.A Transoceanic drilling rig, operating for BP about 50 miles southeast of the Mississippi Delta, exploded on April 20, 2010. The explosion and fire killed 11 people and triggered the largest accidental marine oil spill in history. Oil and gas spewed uncontrollably from the broken well nearly a mile deep for 87 days, ejecting 4.9 million barrels of oil at a rate of about 400 tanker trucks per day, enough to fill up 1.2 million cars. The spill also released about 7.7 billion cubic feet of fossil gas into the deep sea at a rate of 88 million cubic feet per day, enough to supply about 820,000 U.S. homes. State and federal agencies, including the EPA, also authorized BP to apply 1.84 million gallons of chemical dispersants to try to reduce the impacts.Some of the oil and gas dissipated and was transported out of the deep Gulf of Mexico region. Some coated barrier islands and devastated coastal wetlands and shellfish habitat and some settled onto the ocean floor, where currents can stir it back into the water. But enough hydrocarbon and chemical-dispersant remnants stayed suspended long enough to do almost immeasurable harm.A series of studies since the spill have shown a wide range of toxic effects on marine organisms, from impaired development and reproduction to increased mortality and lasting health problems in dolphins and whales. The new paper suggests that lingering pollutants may interfere with some species’ ability to find mates in the dark by disrupting their highly developed sense of smell.

Tackling Lake Erie's algal blooms requires targeted conservation strategies -Anyone living along the coast of Lake Erie will be well aware of the periodic algal blooms that appear on its surface. The greenish blooms can cause rashes and other health problems and pose risks to both humans and animals. In 2016, Canada and the United States agreed to reduce the amount of phosphorus entering Lake Erie's western and central basins by 40% from 2008 levels. Yet recent reporting shows that this target remains largely unmet. Excess nutrients, especially phosphorus and nitrogen, can increase harmful algal blooms in lakes. These blooms deplete oxygen levels in the water, threatening drinking water, fisheries and communities that rely on tourism.Algal blooms in Lake Erie also remind us how closely food production and clean water are connected. Many of these nutrients come from nearby farms, and the challenge is keeping them out of waterways. Agricultural water pollution is not like pollution from a single pipe: it comes from many fields and moves through different pathways.Some of these excess nutrients come from nearby farm fields. They travel overland during storms or in snowmelt, or move underground through drain tiles—buried pipes that remove excess water from wet soil.In 2025, we studied the area around Medway Creek, a tile-drained agricultural watershed in southwestern Ontario. We examined the fields, terrain, soil, crop history and drainage information and used a mapping tool to identify potential locations for conservation practices.Fields with higher conservation needs generally had stronger connections to water pathways, featuring steeper slopes and more vulnerable soils. Protecting Lake Erie requires using different kinds of conservation practices in different fields and areas where they are most likely to work.  Agricultural conservation programs offer several options to manage water quality. These include using wetlands, grassed waterways, water and sediment control basins, controlled drainage and riparian buffers—strips of permanent vegetation next to a waterway—among other measures. But more options do not necessarily lead to better decisions. Limited land, money and time mean that these options cannot all be used everywhere.The key question is which approach to use in which fields. This is the basis of precision conservation: using data, field knowledge, watershed models and local experience to match conservation actions to the places where they will be most effective in reducing nutrient and sediment losses.  We surveyed 138 agricultural fields and assessed conservation needs based on signs such as erosion, ponding, poor drainage, concentrated flow and riparian degradation. Machine-learning models extended that assessment across the watershed and identified high-priority fields for conservation planning. However, a high conservation-need ranking does not prove that these fields produce the most nutrient pollution. Instead, it provides a starting point for further assessment. We then used watershed modeling to examine where nutrient and sediment losses were concentrated and how they moved through the landscape. Our modeling suggested that phosphorus-related losses were concentrated in a small group of fields, while nitrogen-related losses were spread more widely. Different forms of nutrient pollution may therefore require different conservation strategies. If nutrients run off over land, solutions could include grassed waterways or water and sediment control basins. Tile-drained fields may suit controlled drainage, denitrifying bioreactors or phosphorus filters. Streamside fields may require riparian restoration. Some fields may need more than one approach. In another study, we developed a framework that ranked approaches for each field using conservation need, landscape suitability and stakeholder priorities.In Medway Creek, controlled drainage was the top-ranked practice, while the suitability of other practices varied with soil, slope, drainage, nutrient pathways and local priorities. Existing conservation practices were already benefiting water quality.We used watershed modeling to test individual and combined multilayered conservation strategies that could be implemented at the field, edge-of-field and watershed scales. Combining additional tile-drainage management, nutrient incorporation and tillage changes could achieve a balanced reduction in nitrogen and phosphorus in 47% of the modeled agricultural fields. However, some conservation strategies still produced limited results in reducing nutrient runoff depending on local field conditions.The lesson is that some practices will work differently depending on the pollutant, pathway and area. An approach that stops nutrients seeping out of one field may be less effective in another.Better targeting can help farmers and conservation authorities direct limited resources toward suitable places and practices. However, targeting does not replace local knowledge, engineering design, cost assessment or field verification. A conservation map should help the right people ask better questions. Addressing Lake Erie's algal blooms will require more informed conservation planning: identifying where nutrient losses occur, understanding how they reach waterways, matching practices to those pathways and evaluating whether they actually work.

Limited waste collection services in rural communities linked to high microplastic levels in Mekong River -Plastics are accumulating in ecosystems around the world, and their tiny fragments can collect and carry chemical pollutants and pathogens into plants, animals and people. When fishermen in Cambodia's Mekong River became alarmed about the amounts of plastic they were hauling up with each catch, they reached out to scientists for help. To investigate and measure the problem, DRI researchers joined a river expedition with Wonders of the Mekong—a project focused on applied research, capacity building and outreach to solve conservation and development challenges along Southeast Asia's longest river.Now, their results are available in a new study that demonstrates the role of waste collection services in rural communities along the river. The research can help inform improvements in waste management on a river that is critical to livelihoods in China, Myanmar, Thailand, Lao PDR, Cambodia and Vietnam.The research, published in the journal npj Emerging Contaminants, was led by Rachel Kozloski and her colleagues with DRI's Microplastics and Environmental Chemistry Lab and the University of Nevada Reno. They sampled plastics and microplastics along the Cambodian stretch of the Mekong River during the wet and dry seasons in 2022.Their findings showed that where communities lacked waste collection services, microplastics concentrations immediately downstream were much higher.By modeling the observed relationship, they showed that improving waste collection services in rural riverside communities could result in a substantial reduction in downstream microplastic concentrations. The research is critical for improving water quality in a river that 66% of Cambodians rely on for subsistence fishing or employment.  "Our research shows that there's a pretty strong link between what you do with your trash in those riparian areas and the microplastic concentration in the river just downstream of that," Kozloski said.   The research team also examined more than 3,000 plastic particles collected from the surface of the Mekong River and identified their chemical compositions.  They found a notable shift in the types and sizes of plastics collected in the dry season compared to the wet season, when high monsoonal flows flush larger plastics from the river bottom and the surrounding landscape. A wide variety of polymers was identified during the dry season, with the single largest category identified as an assortment of uncommon plastics. During the wet season, the dominant plastics were polypropylene, polyterephthalates (PET) and polyethylene. Although the concentration of microplastics was about the same (between 3 and 4 microplastics per liter of water), the average daily load increased by an order of magnitude in the wet season because the higher flows mobilized more trash. The researchers sampled smaller microplastic particles than previous studies and therefore identified higher concentrations than previously found in the Mekong River. The research is consistent with microplastics levels found in both China's Yangtze and Yellow rivers and India's Godavari River.  Data shows that only 19% of Cambodian municipalities had contracted waste collection services in 2018, with nearly all rural communities discarding their waste in open spaces, unregulated landfills, burn pits or on streambanks.

Forever chemicals found in most waterways, drinking water -  A new report from Environment America found that 83% of water samples collected across the United States tested positive for PFAS, also known as forever chemicals. A U.S. Geological Survey study found nearly half of tap water in the country contains forever chemicals. Bottled water also contains the chemicals. Trey Sherard, Anacostia Riverkeeper, said, “Their solution? Bottled water may be just a different toxin.” PFAS are used in many everyday products. The chemicals are what make non-stick cookware non-stick. Products branded as waterproof or stain-resistant are also likely to contain PFAS. The chemicals are known carcinogens, specifically linked to ovarian and testicular cancer. They can also cause infertility, and in children, developmental delays. The biggest sources of PFAS entering water supplies are industrial runoff and firefighting foam. Environment America is calling attention to the issue. Lisa Frank, who heads Environment America said, “When we allow the use of toxic chemicals and we allow those chemicals to get into our environment without considering the downstream consequences, the problem can get out of hand very quickly,” adding “Removing all those parts from our environment is going to be a very tall order. But stopping new people’s contamination can start right now.” The organization is calling on lawmakers to take action. U.S. Rep. Paul Tonko, D-New York, is calling for an overhaul of the Safe Drinking Water Act to include forever chemicals. Tonko said, “Americans deserve to have confidence and peace of mind that when they turn on the tap, they’re being delivered safe, safe drinking water.” Some of the worst contamination can be found in the Northeast and along the northern Mississippi River.\

Maui residents showed elevated metal burdens months after 2023 wildfires - The A study of 1 400 Maui adults found unusually high urinary concentrations of several metals 6–18 months after the August 2023 wildfires, while participants with greater combined metal burdens were more likely to have abnormal lung-function tests. Antimony showed the largest difference, at nearly 40 times U.S. reference values, but the researchers caution that the study identifies statistical associations and cannot determine how much of the measured burden came directly from the fires. On August 8, the island of Maui experienced a major wildfire disaster fueled by windy and dry conditions On August 8, 2023, the island of Maui experienced a major wildfire disaster fueled by windy and dry conditions. Credit: U.S. Coast Guard Hawai'i Pacific District 14 Wildland–urban interface fires burn much more than vegetation. When flames move through towns, homes, vehicles, electrical systems and other manufactured materials can become part of the combustion environment, creating exposure pathways that extend beyond the smoke normally associated with wildfires. Acute respiratory effects of wildfire smoke are well established, but persistent internal metal mixtures and their relationship with lung function after urban-interface fires have remained poorly characterized. Researchers with the University of Hawaiʻi-led Maui Wildfire Exposure Study examined that question using the August 2023 disaster as a case study. They evaluated 1 400 adults 6–18 months after the fires, measured 24 metals in urine and assessed pulmonary function by standardized spirometry during the same visit. The paired measurements allowed the researchers to compare internal metal burden with objective measures of how well participants’ lungs were functioning. Compared with U.S. reference values, urinary antimony concentrations were nearly 40-fold higher in the Maui cohort. Manganese was 3.8-fold higher, barium 2.3-fold higher and arsenic 2.2-fold higher. The highest concentrations clustered in regions most affected by the fires. Urinary biomonitoring does not mean that researchers found metals inside participants’ lungs. It measures substances that have entered the body and are being excreted, providing a different view of exposure from environmental sampling of air, soil or ash. Spirometry was conducted separately during the same study visit to assess pulmonary function. Rather than evaluate each metal only in isolation, the researchers used three complementary statistical approaches to examine the combined burden from metal mixtures. Across those analyses, greater cumulative exposure was consistently associated with higher odds that pulmonary measurements would fall below the lower limit of normal. The models measure exposure-response associations; they do not establish that the metals caused the observed abnormalities. In the weighted quantile sum analysis, each one-quantile increase in the positive metal-mixture index was associated with odds ratios of 1.71 for abnormal forced vital capacity (FVC), 1.53 for abnormal forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1), 1.83 for an abnormal FEV1/FVC ratio and 1.84 for abnormal forced expiratory flow between 25% and 75% of FVC (FEF25–75). An odds ratio above 1 represents greater odds of the measured outcome as the mixture index rises. Arsenic, cadmium and copper made the strongest contributions to that positive mixture index. FVC measures how much air a person can forcefully exhale after a full breath, while FEV1 measures the volume expelled during the first second. Together with the FEV1/FVC ratio and mid-expiratory flow, the measurements give researchers different views of airway and overall ventilatory function. In this study, they served as objective respiratory outcomes against which the internal metal mixture was statistically evaluated. The exposure environment created by a wildland–urban interface fire is more complicated than that produced by burning vegetation alone. The PNAS researchers noted that such fires can mobilize legacy contaminants while producing smoke. University of Hawaiʻi researchers said the Maui fire environment included burned homes, cars, electronics, treated lumber, electrical systems and other infrastructure, each potentially contributing to a complex mixture of substances in ash, dust and debris. Environmental monitoring carried out during Maui’s recovery provides a separate view of that contamination. The Hawaiʻi Department of Health collected daily airborne-particle samples in Lahaina from January 15, 2024 through February 19, 2025 and tested them for 16 metals. With two exceptions on August 25, 2024, the department said measured concentrations were extremely low and below levels designed to protect public health. Those air-monitoring results and the MauiWES biomonitoring findings are not measurements of the same thing. Air sampling records contaminants present at particular locations during a defined sampling period. Human biomonitoring captures substances that have entered the body through potentially multiple routes and over different time frames. The study authors concluded that reliance on air monitoring alone may underestimate longer-term internal toxic burden following wildland–urban interface disasters. The study cannot determine that the 2023 fires caused every elevated metal concentration measured in participants. University of Hawaiʻi researchers said the observed burden may reflect overlapping geological, agricultural, industrial, dietary and other environmental exposures that existed before the disaster, together with contaminants newly introduced or remobilized by the fires. No pre-fire biomonitoring baseline was available to determine precisely how much of each participant’s burden came directly from the wildfire.

Experts validate that the Colorado River mega drought is the most severe in 1,200 years | Watch (video) Experts have validated that the Colorado River watershed is currently facing the most severe megadrought in over 1,200 years, a situation exacerbated by increasing global temperatures that have intensified the crisis beyond anything documented in the American West's history. Studies indicate that 40 to 50 percent of the river's diminishing water supplies can be directly linked to rising temperatures. According to NOAA statistics, global average temperatures have surged by 2.3 degrees Fahrenheit compared to pre-industrial times, leading to a 5 percent increase in evaporative demand in the region since 1980. In the 2025-26 period, Colorado's snowpack reached its lowest point in over four decades. Experts caution that these conditions are likely to deteriorate further without significant intervention. Disclosure:This video contains stock footage and content created or enhanced using Ai-assisted tools ai-generated.

There's another water crisis happening in the Colorado River Basin — and this one's invisible --The United States’ two largest reservoirs have dropped to unprecedented lows this year as drought grips the Southwest, but below the ground there’s another water crisis playing out — one that’s much less visible, but no less alarming. The amount of groundwater in the Colorado River Basin is declining rapidly, and it’s doing so in unexpected ways, according to a new study from scientists at Virginia Tech, published in the journal Water Resources Research. Lake Mead and Lake Powell are the visible faces of the Southwest’s critical water problem, as the Colorado River — which supplies water to nearly 40 million people — shrinks due to a combination of climate change and human demand.“However, they represent only part of the region’s water resources,” said Esther Oyedele, a study author and a geosciences graduate student at Virginia Tech. “Groundwater is another essential component.” It is a vital alternative source in the Colorado River Basin, especially when surface water in rivers, lakes and reservoirs dries up.To build a picture of what’s happening to the region’s groundwater, the scientists compared measurements from NASA satellites with estimates of surface water, soil moisture and snow-water storage between 2004 and 2023.They found declines across the basin during those two decades, with losses accelerating after 2019. A severe drought between 2020 and 2022 led to particularly significant falls — and the researchers found a surprising twist.Historically, groundwater has typically declined more in the Lower Colorado River Basin, which encompasses California, Arizona and Nevada. The Upper Basin, which includes Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming, has tended to be more resilient as its groundwater benefits from melting snow coursing down the Rocky Mountains.However, from 2020 to 2022, groundwater in the Upper Basin declined by about 618 cubic feet, nearly twice the rate of the Lower Basin, which fell by an estimated 332 cubic feet.“The system has hit a turning point: The Upper Basin is now experiencing rapid groundwater losses,” the report authors wrote.Surface water and groundwater are linked in a delicate dance: Rain and melting snow seep into the ground and recharge aquifers, meanwhile groundwater can also make its way into rivers and lakes, for example through springs.There are big differences in how these relationships play out between the Upper and Lower Basins, the study found. Snowmelt plays a much more important role in the Upper Basin, which receives more precipitation than the generally hotter, drier Lower Basin. Prolonged drought, higher temperatures and reduced snow appear to be placing the Upper Basin region under additional pressure.  The research follows another study published last year, which found that the amount of groundwater pumped out of the Colorado River Basin over the previous two decades was enough to fill Lake Mead.It takes thousands of years to refill these aquifers, “and we as humans have more or less been burning through it over the last century,” Jay Famiglietti, an Arizona State University professor who was an author on last year’s study, said at the time.The messages of this paper and the new study “have been that while surface water gets all the policy (and) management attention, groundwater dominates the losses from the entire basin,”

USDA Admits Corn Data Error in September Report, But Controversial 181.2-Bu. Yield Forecast Stands – AgWeb - USDA’s October corn yield forecast is standing, even after the agency acknowledged a processing error that affected September corn data and fueled questions about its latest estimates. On Oct. 23, USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) announced it found a processing error affecting September 2026 corn plant populations, ear counts, yields and production for Kansas and Nebraska. The error also affected September averages for plant populations and ear counts across 10 states, along with U.S. corn yield and production forecasts. However, NASS didn’t say exactly what the error was or why.NASS says it has corrected the affected September data in its Crop Production reports and Quick Stats database. NASS corrected the Nebraska corn yield in September to 182 bu. per acre, up 5 bu. per acre from the original report. However, the agency emphasized that its October forecasts, released Oct. 9, were reviewed and validated and have not changed.That means USDA’s latest national corn yield estimate remains 181.2 bu. per acre, up 2.4 bu. from September’s corrected 178.8 bu. per acre. Total production remains projected at more than 16 billion bushels. The announcement comes after USDA’s October report caught the corn market off guard, triggering a sharp sell-off and renewed scrutiny of the data behind the agency’s yield projections. But according to AgriTalk AM host and Farm Journal economist Chip Flory, who’s been pushing for answers since the October report was released, there are still major questions left unanswered after NASS issued the correction on Friday. “The ear and plant counts in Nebraska and Kansas were incorrectly processed for the September report, according to the statement from NASS, but the processing error was not explained. While it’s a good thing NASS has acknowledged the error and issued a correction, not knowing what the error was, how it happened and how NASS plans to not let it happen again raises many more questions,” says Flory. “We will continue to ask questions that need answers in order to be confident in the process that provides critical information and data to the markets that has a direct effect on farmers’ businesses.”

France forecasts lowest grain-maize yield since 1991 after record heatwaves in summer 2026 - France’s 2026 grain-maize yield is forecast to fall to 6.3 tonnes per hectare (2.81 short tons per acre), its lowest level since 1991, after repeated heatwaves and persistent drought damaged crops. Agreste estimates production, including seed maize, at 7.3 million tonnes (8 million short tons), nearly half the 2025 level, as grain-maize area fell 28% and yield declined 27%. Agreste reduced its 2026 grain-maize production estimate from 8.1 million tonnes in September to 7.3 million tonnes in October as harvest progress and responses to its Terres labourables survey showed lower yields than previously expected. Production would be nearly 48% below the 13.9 million tonnes harvested in 2025. Agreste said grain-maize sowings had already fallen 19% from 2025 because of higher production costs, prices and disappointing yields during the previous season. Over 10% of the area sown for grain was subsequently diverted to livestock silage or anaerobic digestion because the grain was unsuitable for sale or had failed to develop. Meanwhile, the Arvalis crop institute and the General Association of Maize Producers (AGPM) on October 20 placed production at approximately 7.04 million tonnes (7.8 million short tons), down 49% from 2025 and the lowest since 1976. Summer 2026 brought persistently high temperatures across France. The map shows the number of days when maximum temperatures reached or exceeded 35°C (95°F), with the highest totals concentrated across southern and southeastern France. The reduced maize yield was attributed to repeated heatwaves and persistent drought by Agreste. Its October assessment also placed sunflower and soybean production about 30% below their 2021–2025 averages and production of potatoes for storage 22% below the record 2025 harvest. Sugar-beet production was forecast at 25.3 million tonnes (27.9 million short tons), potentially its lowest level since at least 1980. Météo-France measured a mean temperature of 24°C (75.2°F) from June through August 2026, 3.6°C (6.5°F) above the 1991–2020 average. This made 2026 France’s hottest summer since national temperature measurements began in 1900. France experienced 53 heatwave days during three separate episodes, compared with 33 in 2022. Météo-France said persistent high-pressure conditions limited the passage of weather systems and contributed to the prolonged heat, lack of rain and soil drought.

Europe's killer heat this summer claims 50,000 lives. Climate change blamed for two-thirds of deaths - Blistering record heat in Europe this summer helped kill more than 50,000 people, with nearly two-thirds of that death toll blamed on human-caused climate change, a new study found. Researchers modeled heat-related deaths for different age groups in 854 European cities during repeated heat waves in June, July and August and found that 50,391 people died from warmer temperatures, and of those, 32,619 died because of the extra heat caused by the burning of coal, oil and gas, according to a study in an upcoming issue of Nature Health. That's 71% higher than the previous deadliest summer's toll of 29,480 in 2022, according to the same researchers, who produced a study earlier this monthtracking yearly summer heat-related deaths in those European cities. And this summer's death figures are underestimates because they don't count a deadly heat wave in May and they only look at deaths in those 854 cities, which are about 40% of Europe's population, study authors said. About one-third of the deaths were from June 17 to July 1, a particularly intense heat wave when temperatures were 9.5 degrees Fahrenheit (5.3 degrees Celsius) above normal, said study co-author Garyfallos Konstantinoudis, a biostatistician at Imperial College London. "Much of Western and Northern Europe, our infrastructure is just not designed to cope with the sort of temperatures that we are seeing now because of the effects of human-caused warming," said lead author Clair Barnes, a climate scientist at Imperial College London. She said some European cities this summer had temperatures 21.6 F (12 C) warmer than normal. Of those 50,000, more than 32,000 died from the added heat of human-caused climate change, the study also found. Italy, France, Spain and Germany had the highest death tolls, the study said. Of all the European capitals, Rome had the highest heat death total from 2000 to 2025, according to the team's study earlier this month. This would've already been an abnormal natural hot spell on top of a huge amount of climate change, Barnes said. She said Europe is the fastest-warming continent—although the Arctic, which is not a continent, is warming even faster—and is 4.5 F (2.5 C) hotter than preindustrial times. "Just the underlying warming from human activity, from mostly the burning of fossil fuels, it's increasing all of our temperatures by what sounds like quite a small amount," Barnes said. "For many people, it's certainly the case that that extra two-and-a-half degrees (Celsius) of warming is what's going to tip those temperatures from uncomfortable to dangerous and potentially deadly." More than half of the people who died in Europe's heat were age 85 or older, but the stifling temperatures also killed more than 800 people between the ages of 20 and 44, Konstantinoudis said. The team used an established and accepted scientific method to figure out how many of the 50,000 heat deaths were from natural high summer heat and how many were due to what heat-trapping gases have done to the climate. They ran computer simulations of a world without climate change and compared it to the deaths that happened this summer. The difference is what was caused by global warming. The percentage of heat deaths attributable to global warming has grown from about 45% in the early 2000s to 65% now, Barnes said. "Summers are getting hotter, and the analytical tools for attributing deaths to heat are getting more accurate,"  "Together, these two trends yield increasingly high and increasingly accurate counts of heat-related deaths." The scientific team also had to use statistical modeling to come up with the base count of 50,000 heat deaths because those deaths are underreported and often not listed on death certificates, despite being a major factor, Konstantinoudis said. Several outside experts agreed with him, calling the methods state of the art. The researchers ran a complex mathematical equation that has been used in several previously peer-reviewed studies, Barnes said, which factors in specific age and temperatures for each of the 854 cities based on a localized optimal temperature that coincides with the fewest deaths. When it's warmer or colder, the equation calculates excess deaths above lowest-death conditions. Researchers then checked their calculations against real-time estimates from government agencies. "We need to prepare for the heat we cannot now avoid, with urgent investments in heat early-warning systems, equitable access to low-carbon cooling, and neighborhood buddy systems that check on and support people most at risk—while rapidly reducing the fossil fuel use driving the crisis," said Canadian emergency room physician Dr. Courtney Howard, president-elect of the Canadian Medical Association, who wasn't part of the research.

Hundreds evacuated in Ohio after chemical tank explosion - Hundreds of people were evacuated after a chemical tank at a facility in Toledo, Ohio exploded on Tuesday night, causing a plume of a toxic chemical to rise into the atmosphere—and first responders warn there could still be a risk of a second explosion. The explosion took place on Tuesday night at around 9:30 p.m. CDT at the MC Tank Terminal in North Toledo, the city’s Mayor Wade Kapszukiewicz said at a press briefing on Wednesday morning. The chemical was identified as glycidyl methacrylate, which Kapszukiewicz said was used as “an industrial coating product” that is stored as a liquid but takes the form of a gas outside of the tank. Officials evacuated a total of 983 people living within a 1-mile radius of the plume, but Kapszukiewicz estimated about 5,000 people work in the evacuation zone during normal workday hours. Residents in a larger 3-mile radius, which extends into southern Michigan, were asked to shelter in place. Only one known person has been injured by the chemical leak so far—a first responder who transported themselves to the hospital after responding to the incident, Kapszukiewicz said. Officials are worried that the chemical is still volatile and could cause a second explosion. First responders are waiting until at least 9:30 a.m. CDT to even approach the tank, they said on Wednesday morning. “There is still concern that the tank is emitting this chemical, and it has the potential within 12 hours of the incident to be explosive,” Kapszukiewicz said at a press briefing. “So we are still in the period of time where there is at least the potential and the concern that the tank could explode.” Kapszukiewicz said first responders would “reassess” the safety risk later this morning. Glycidyl methacrylate is classified as corrosive and acutely toxic, according to the National Institutes of Health chemical database. “The tank that exploded is able to hold 5500 gallons of what is a liquid when it is in the tank,” Kapszukiewicz said. “As it is emitted into the air, it takes the form of a gas. When it settles back down, it will resume being a liquid,” the mayor told reporters at Wednesday’s press briefing. In a statement on Wednesday, MC Tank Transport Inc. said glycidyl methacrylate was used to “make certain plastics, paints and coatings perform better.” The company said it would work with and assist first responders and people impacted by the evacuations.

Four killed in explosion after ‘live-fire accident’ at Canada military base - At least four people have been killed and dozens more injured after a large explosion at one of Canada's busiest military bases. A gas line was hit during a live-fire training exercise at Canadian Forces Base Wainwright, in Alberta, at 4pm on Saturday, according to reports. Mark Carney, the Canadian prime minister, called the incident "one of the worst tragedies for Canadian forces on Canadian soil in peacetime". At an address on Sunday, Mr Carney said: "Four service members have lost their lives and their next of kin has been notified. Dozens more are seriously injured." The Canadian military has not officially confirmed the cause of the blaze, but army sources told Global News it was the result of an accident during live-fire training. David McGuinty, the Canadian defence minister, said the military and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police were investigating the incident. He added: "I'm saddened to share that there have been both fatalities and injuries as a result of an incident on the base... I cannot recall an incident like this in recent memory." Seven people were reported to have been killed in the blast before Mr Carney revised the death toll. Firefighters worked late into the night as changeable winds, with gusts as strong as 62mph, moved the fire towards the nearby town of Wainwright, home to 7,000 people. The flames were stopped from reaching the town before midnight local time. Hospitals close to the base were overwhelmed, according to witnesses. The number of injured continued to rise on Sunday morning, with a "code orange" issued to hospitals in Edmonton, Alberta's capital, denoting a mass casualty incident.

Grass Fire at Canadian Military Base Kills 4 Soldiers and Critically Injures 19 Other People (AP) — Four Canadian service members were killed and 39 people injured, including 19 critically, when a fast-moving fire overtook soldiers conducting live-fire combat training at a military base in Alberta, officials said Sunday. Maj. Gen. Wade Rutland said military officials knew about the fire for hours but believed it was sufficiently contained to allow training to continue before winds suddenly shifted, sending flames racing toward the soldiers. “The fire was a kilometer away when the wind shifted. That is not normal for a fire to move a kilometer in 36 seconds,” he said at a news conference in Edmonton. Rutland said a commander at the scene told him soldiers went from seeing no fire to having flames upon them in less than a minute. The fire broke out Saturday during high-intensity combat training involving Charlie Company of the 3rd Battalion, Princess Patricia’s Canadian Light Infantry. About 84 soldiers were split between a grenade range and an area where they practiced attacks on simulated enemy positions. The fire swept into the second training area. Rutland said investigators had not determined what ignited the grass fire. He said the battalion was preparing for rapid deployment to global crises and a mission to reinforce Canadian troops in Latvia next spring. The military identified those killed as Sgt. Morgan Wong of Edmonton; Pvt. Shaun Farrell of Prince Albert, Saskatchewan; Pvt. Aidan Goulding of North Vancouver, British Columbia; and Pvt. Hayden Lykkemark of Langley, British Columbia. All four were serving with the 3rd Battalion, Princess Patricia’s Canadian Light Infantry, based in Edmonton. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith said 39 people were receiving medical care. Sayeh Zielke, chief executive of Acute Care Alberta, said 19 were in critical condition, eight were stable and 12 were ambulatory and receiving treatment for less serious injuries. Smith said some suffered severe burns and could face weeks or months of intensive treatment. Prime Minister Mark Carney described the incident as one of the worst peacetime tragedies for Canada’s military on domestic soil. He ordered flags lowered to half-staff on federal buildings nationwide. Carney said the families of those killed had been notified. Those affected included regular forces personnel, reservists and soldiers from bases across Canada. Alberta health officials said patients were transferred from Wainwright to four hospitals — the University of Alberta Hospital and Royal Alexandra Hospital in Edmonton, Foothills Medical Centre in Calgary and Red Deer Regional Hospital. Alberta officials said they had lifted the “Code Orange” emergency activated at several hospitals Saturday night to mobilize staff and beds for the casualties. The response involved 22 ground ambulances, six airplanes and two helicopters, with assistance from neighboring Saskatchewan. Smith said all patients had been accounted for and no further patients were awaiting transport. Wainwright Mayor Bruce Pugh said the town’s small hospital was not designed to handle a mass-casualty incident but praised local medical personnel. Rutland confirmed that military search-and-rescue technicians parachuted into Wainwright to reinforce the emergency response. Pugh said their red parachutes were illuminated by flares as they descended shortly before midnight. Rutland said the fire ignited in the military training area, where multiple exercises were underway, and spread rapidly in unusually strong winds. He said winds had been within normal operating limits for much of Saturday, generally below 50 kph (31 mph), before intensifying rapidly. Range controllers rely on weather reports to determine whether training can safely continue, he said. Rutland said investigators would examine whether the wind drove the fire toward the soldiers or whether flames spread unseen through vegetation before suddenly overtaking them. The fire crossed established firebreaks before being contained with help from municipal firefighters. The Canadian military said there were no indications of terrorism. Rutland said military investigators would examine the circumstances, including whether safety protocols needed to change. “If our protocols need to change, then they’ll be updated,” he said.

Deadly fire at Canada military base moved a kilometre in 30 to 60 seconds - The fire that killed four members of the Canadian military and injured dozens of others on Saturday spread with alarming speed, accounts suggest. It broke out in a grassy training area at a base in the province of Alberta and spread rapidly due to strong winds. "The fire was 1km (0.6 miles) away when the wind shifted," said Maj-Gen Wade Rutland, commander of the 1st Canadian Division of the Canadian Armed Forces. "It is not normal for a fire to move a kilometre in 30 to 60 seconds." Prime Minister Mark Carney described it as "one of the worst tragedies for the forces on Canadian soil in peacetime". Officials have ruled out the possibility of "any terrorist activity" being to blame for the fire. The blaze began at about 16:00 (22:00 GMT) on Saturday at Canadian Forces Base Wainwright, one of the country's busiest military training bases. The BBC has confirmed that Sgt Morgan Wong, Pte Shaun Farrell, Pte Aidan Goulding and Pte Hayden Lykkemark have died. Of the 39 injured people receiving care in hospital, at least 19 are in a critical condition. Warren Thirsk, an emergency department doctor at the Royal Alexandra Hospital, told Canadian broadcaster CBC that the number of patients involved in the incident had "completely overwhelmed" healthcare facilities in Wainwright. In account of Saturday's events, Rutland told reporters that members of the infantry had been conducting "high-intensity combat training with live munitions" at a grenade range and attack range. He told reporters that officials knew about the fire on the base for several hours, but it was decided that training "could carry on for a certain amount of time". "I spoke to my commander last night, and he said within 30 seconds to a minute they saw no fire, and then there was a fire right on top of them," Rutland said. Rutland said it was not yet known what exactly caused the fire. Some witnesses had said they had heard explosions, fuelling speculation that oil and gas infrastructure may have been hit and sparked the fire. But Rutland said authorities "do not believe this [incident] to be a result of any oil and gas infrastructure". The Canadian Armed Forces has said that "while the incident remains under investigation, at this time, there are no indications that it was the result of any terrorist activity". Forecasters had issued a wind warning on Saturday for large parts of Alberta, predicting wind gusts of up to 90km/h (66mph), Canadian broadcaster CBS said. According to Rutland, the investigation may take at least a month. Wainwright, about 130 miles east of Edmonton, Alberta's capital, is one of the main bases used by the Canadian military for live-fire training exercises, and it houses troops from Canada and allied countries. About 690 military personnel and 300 civilian workers are on site on a typical day.

Grenade started deadly fire at Canada military base -- A grenade launcher sparked a fire that killed four soldiers and injured dozens more at a Canadian military base, officials said on Thursday.Sgt Morgan Wong and Pte Shaun Farrell, Pte Aidan Goulding and Pte Hayden Lykkemark died when the blaze trapped troops participating in a live-fire training exercise at the Wainwright base in Alberta. Another 39 soldiers were injured in the incident on Saturday, 27 of whom remained in hospital on Thursday, some in a critical condition.Families of the dead soldiers and officials held press conferences on Thursday, where senior military figures promised to investigate whether systemic failures contributed to the incident, one of the Canadian military’s worst peacetime tragedies.“We will not shy away from answers, whatever hard truths they may reveal,” Maj Gen Wade Rutland said. Brig Vanessa Hanrahan, commander of the military police, said initial investigations found that the fire ignited on the base’s automatic grenade launcher range during routine training activities.“A subsequent change in wind direction and velocity significantly increased the fire’s intensity,” Brig Hanrahan added.Firefighters were called but were initially unable to combat the blaze because it was too risky for them to enter a “permanent danger area” of the military range, she said.There had been fears firefighters could step on unexploded ordnance such as grenades and landmines.The blaze spread to a training area where soldiers working in pairs to attack a target while taking turns to cover each other. Dozens of people were caught in the fire’s path. Fire crews’ efforts were further hampered as winds of more than 60mph fuelled the flames. They worked late into the night to protect the town of Wainwright, home to 7,000 people.Environment Canada had issued a warning of strong winds in central and southern Alberta that afternoon.  Maj Gen Rutland previously said winds had been 31mph during the training exercise but suddenly picked up.“I’ve certainly never seen anything like it,” he said, adding that flames travelled more than half a mile in under one minute.Brig Hanrahan also confirmed that there was no indication that natural gas infrastructure had been in the line of the fire and that, contrary to earlier reports, no “explosion” had occurred.

FEMA tells states to handle disasters on their own - The Trump administration’s disaster chief told state officials Tuesday they must increase their financial reserves and emergency capabilities to handle most disasters on their own, without federal help. Federal Emergency Management Agency Administrator Cameron Hamilton gave unprecedented detail at a conference in Little Rock, Arkansas, about the administration’s long-planned shift of disaster responsibilities to states. “Every state must have the appropriate financial reserves” and other abilities “to ensure that recovery efforts can start immediately and not necessarily be held up simply because of the federal [disaster] declaration process,” Hamilton said, according to a recording of his remarks obtained by POLITICO. “A future that I hope we would shoot for is one where we wouldn’t require as many disasters because the capability of states is so high and so substantial,” Hamilton added, referring to presidential authorizations of federal disaster aid. FEMA said in a statement to POLITICO that the agency’s “primary focus is on empowering communities to lead and executive disaster response and recovery.” “FEMA is not a first responder,” an agency spokesperson said, “but rather a force multiplier supporting states, tribes and local governments to ensure rapid and effective recovery when warranted and where needed.   Hamilton’s remarks at the National Emergency Management Association’s annual conference add detail to his Oct. 15 internal memo — reported by POLITICO — which said FEMA will “strengthen state and local capacity.”The agency will face substantial challenges — both logistically and politically — preparing states to take a lead role in disaster prevention and recovery.A FEMA report released Friday found that state disaster agencies “are typically understaffed and underfunded” and that many agencies are heavily dependent on federal funding.“There are many states with [minuscule] emergency management offices and budgets. There are states with slim rainy-day funds and no capacity to make up for a lack of federal disaster recovery funds — without RAISING TAXES!” Eric Holdeman, a longtime emergency management official, wrote on LinkedIn on Monday in response to Hamilton’s memo. “Reducing the number of federal disaster declarations will be difficult and its implementation will be impossible! All Presidents, not just the one we have today, will ignore such a policy when it becomes politically expedient to do so,” added Holdeman, a former emergency management director in King County, Washington, which includes Seattle. The Trump administration plans to launch “national mutual aid,” whereby states help each other recover from damaging storms, floods, wildfires and other events, Hamilton told state emergency management leaders. “You will also see us asking for greater alleviation and waiving of federal environmental and historical preservation requirements — things that add layers of bureaucracy,” Hamilton said, referring to reviews of FEMA-funded rebuilding projects. POLITICO obtained a recording of the speech from someone at the private conference. President Donald Trump threatened to abolish FEMA early in his current term and has since called for states to take more financial responsibility. The administration has not publicly announced any changes and has continued to approve disaster aid for weather-related events. Hamilton told the conference attendees that changes could begin “in the next six months.” Hamilton said states that avoid federal aid might begin disaster recovery more quickly. States could start disaster cleanup and repairs “much faster” if they don’t have to submit a detailed aid application to FEMA and await a decision, which can take weeks or months. Watch: The Conversation Can Angie Nixon prove Democrats can win in Florida? “Sometimes what we find is a potential slowing down the [recovery] process to ensure that a declaration comes through,” Hamilton said. Hamilton said FEMA will focus increasingly on “reducing risk and building capacity across the nation” so that disasters cause less damage and states are better-equipped. “Federal dollars should be building greater capability, not creating greater dependency,” Hamilton added.

Norte fire images show multiple homes destroyed as blaze explodes - Multiple homes have been destroyed or damaged after a fast-moving wildfire surged across hundreds of acres in Southern California, triggering evacuation orders. The Norte fire began shortly after 11:30 a.m. on Friday near Portico Del Norte and Eminencia Del Norte in San Clemente, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection’s (CAL FIRE) incident page, which as of Saturday morning said its cause remained under investigation. State officials said the blaze was driven by strong Santa Ana winds, dry vegetation and elevated temperatures. The National Weather Service had warned that weather conditions in the region were conducive to elevated fire danger. The Norte fire grew from approximately 10 acres to 250 acres within about an hour, before expanding further. At least four homes off Via La Mirada in San Juan Capistrano were affected, according to an update published by fire officials. Images from the area showed flames engulfing properties and thick smoke rising into the air. “We still have crews in place with evacuations remaining throughout the night,” Mike Yuen, battalion chief for the Orange County Fire Authority said in a video update on Friday. “Crews currently are working to increase containment, putting out hotspots, and our goal is to keep the fire in its current footprint. “Our number one objective is the safety of the community and our firefighters and, when it is safe to do so, our second priority would be to get people back into their homes,” Yuen added. The Orange County Fire Authority said the blaze had reached 570 acres and was zero percent contained. Images also showed firefighting crews hosing down properties that had been damaged and burned by the fire. Some 13,000 people were threatened by the blaze, while evacuation orders and warnings covered around 4,000 homes, according to California Governor Gavin Newsom’s office. The state secured a Fire Management Assistance Grant from the Federal Emergency Management Agency to support the response in Orange County. The Associated Press (AP) reported two firefighters had been hospitalized with heat-related injuries. The outlet reported winds drove the fire into San Juan Capistrano after it began in San Clemente, and that Orange County Fire Authority Fire Chief TJ McGovern said 16,000 residents had been ordered to evacuate by Friday night.

Malibu wildfire triggers evacuation orders as flames spread - A fast-moving wildfire near Malibu, California, has put thousands of structures at risk, bringing fresh worry to a region still recovering from past fire damage. The Bryson Fire broke out Thursday evening near Mulholland Highway and Encinal Canyon Road, prompting evacuation orders and warnings for nearby communities. By Friday evening, the fire had burned about 147 acres and reached 39% containment. Fire crews continued working despite strong winds and dry conditions that could help the flames spread. The Bryson Fire threatened approximately 7,221 structures, according to the Los Angeles County Fire Department's Friday evening update. The number highlights how quickly a relatively small wildfire can put homes and other buildings in danger when it burns near developed areas. Officials had not reported any structures destroyed in the fire at that time. However, one firefighter had been injured while crews worked to control the blaze. Fire conditions remained dangerous, making the situation a concern for residents and emergency teams across the Malibu area. Residents in the Encinal Canyon area faced evacuation orders after the fire began Thursday evening. Evacuation warnings also extended toward nearby beaches, signaling that conditions could change and additional areas might need to leave. For people living near a wildfire, following official instructions can make a major difference. Residents should pay attention to local emergency alerts, prepare essential items, and leave promptly if ordered to evacuate. Road closures and changing wind conditions can make waiting until the last minute especially risky. Strong Santa Ana winds created difficult conditions for firefighters battling the Bryson Fire. These winds can carry burning embers beyond a fire's main edge, allowing flames to spread into new areas before crews can respond. The National Weather Service warned that strong winds and low humidity could support rapid fire growth through Saturday evening. Forecast wind gusts reached as high as 60 mph, while humidity was expected to fall below 15%. Such dry, windy weather can turn brush fires into serious threats even when the original blaze covers a limited area. The National Weather Service initially scheduled a red flag warning for parts of Los Angeles and Ventura counties through 8 p.m. Saturday. Improving conditions allowed the warning to be canceled early for Malibu and several surrounding areas Saturday afternoon. Red flag warnings signal weather conditions that can support rapid wildfire growth, including strong winds and very low humidity. Residents in affected areas are urged to avoid activities that could create sparks and remain prepared for changing fire conditions.

Monitor says Indonesia fires have burned nearly 2 million hectares - Indonesian wildfires that have caused a regional haze crisis burned more than 1.9 million hectares (4.7 million acres) in the first nine months of 2026, a monitor analyzing satellite data said on Monday. The report came as Indonesian officials said they had accepted help from neighbors Malaysia and Singapore to combat the blazes. "We've already responded to the aid proposal... they (Malaysia) will be assisting with three aircraft and 52 personnel," Coordinating Minister for Political and Security Affairs Dudung Abdurachman told reporters in Jakarta. Malaysia had made repeated offers of help to combat the fires that have sent air pollution levels soaring in its own capital and others in the region. Dudung said Singapore will also provide assistance, without giving any details. New figures from deforestation monitoring site Nusantara Atlas showed an area nearly 12 times larger than London has burned from January to the end of September, most of it as drought took hold from June, exacerbated by a strong El Niño cycle. Haze from Indonesia fires has drifted across the region, including into neighboring Malaysia. Indonesia's government has not provided official figures since announcing 202,000 hectares (499,000 acres) had been razed by the end of July. Nusantara Atlas founder David Gaveau said the true scale of the burning was likely higher than the 1,916,588 hectares (4.7 million acres) his organization has detected. The calculation had been affected by heavy haze from the fires that obscured satellite images at times, among other factors. Even so, Nusantara Atlas data shows the area burned was 38% higher than at the same point in 2019, another calamitous year for wildfires. Forestry Ministry spokesman Ristianto Pribadi told AFP the government was still calculating the total burned area and said the Nusantara Atlas data "cannot be readily confirmed." President Prabowo Subianto ordered on Monday a "massive deployment" of resources to tackle the blazes, according to the government. Indonesia experiences fires every dry season, but this year's blazes have been particularly severe, making hundreds of thousands of people ill. The haze has prompted school closures in Malaysia and East Timor, with haze drifting into Singapore and as far afield as the Philippines. Singapore's National Environment Agency (NEA) said on Monday the number of consecutive days in which air quality dipped into "unhealthy" levels has surpassed that of 2015, when the region experienced its worst haze crisis. Singapore classes a day as "unhealthy" if the local PSI air quality measuring system tips over 100 at any point during the day. Singapore sent warnings to three companies on Monday, urging them to take action against fires in areas they exploit, the NEA said. That followed notices sent to seven Indonesian companies on Friday, telling them to deploy firefighting teams, stop burning or starting new fires, and submit action plans to the NEA. Singapore Senior Minister K. Shanmugam warned on Monday that those responsible would be held to account. "Some companies may deny responsibility. They may think they can escape scrutiny. But they should not underestimate the Singapore government's determination to act," Shanmugam told reporters. Indonesia's Dudung insisted earlier on Monday that Indonesia was "still capable of handling the situation ourselves" even as another firefighter died. The volunteer died in the hospital of injuries he suffered when a team became overwhelmed while battling flames on Thursday in the Bromo Tengger Semeru National Park in East Java, park officials said. He was the fifth member of that group to die. Dudung said later, when announcing help was coming from Malaysia, that Indonesia had 47 aircraft and 60,000 personnel deployed against the fires. About 150 students staged a protest on Monday in Palangkaraya, a city in the severely affected Central Kalimantan province on Borneo island, to demand more government action. The demonstrators carried a doll wrapped in white cloth, in line with Islamic burial rites. "The government... has not been truly effective in handling forest and land fire," said one protester, identified only as Naomi. "This warrants being designated and recorded in history as a gross human rights violation," she said.

Subtropical Storm Josephine forms off U.S. East Coast, forecast to become a hurricane-force extratropical cyclone - Subtropical Storm Josephine was accelerating northeastward away from the U.S. East Coast at 05:00 AST (09:00 UTC) on October 22, 2026, with maximum sustained winds of 100 km/h (65 mph). The National Hurricane Center forecast Josephine to lose its subtropical characteristics later October 22 or overnight into October 23 while strengthening through interaction with an approaching upper-level trough, becoming a hurricane-force extratropical cyclone within 24 hours. Josephine formed at 17:00 AST (21:00 UTC) on October 21 from the non-tropical low designated AL93. At formation, its center was located about 425 km (265 miles) south of Nantucket, Massachusetts, and 940 km (585 miles) southwest of Halifax, Nova Scotia. Maximum sustained winds at formation were 100 km/h (65 mph), and the estimated minimum central pressure was 990 hPa. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) initiated advisories after scatterometer data showed that nearby fronts had dissipated and the radius of maximum wind had decreased. Moderate-to-deep convection was organizing near and west of the system’s warm-core center. At 05:00 AST (09:00 UTC) on October 22, Josephine was centered about 315 km (195 miles) south-southeast of Nantucket and 765 km (475 miles) south-southwest of Halifax. The cyclone was moving northeast at 20 km/h (13 mph). Maximum sustained winds remained at 100 km/h (65 mph), while the minimum central pressure had fallen to 988 hPa. NHC had no tropical cyclone coastal watches or warnings in effect. Local National Weather Service coastal, surf and marine products remained active for hazards associated with the storm’s broad circulation.

 Eastern Pacific reaches 21 named storms for the first time since 2018 as Tropical Storm Vance strengthens - Tropical Storm Vance strengthened over the eastern Pacific on October 22, becoming the 21st named storm of the 2026 season and making 2026 the first eastern Pacific season since 2018 to reach that total. At 15:00 UTC, maximum sustained winds had increased to 95 km/h (60 mph), and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast Vance to become a hurricane during the night of October 22 and possibly a major hurricane by the weekend. At 15:00 UTC (09:00 LT) on October 22, the center of Tropical Storm Vance was located approximately 810 km (505 miles) south of Acapulco and 1 095 km (680 miles) south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico. 1-minute sustained winds reached 95 km/h (60 mph), while the estimated minimum central pressure had fallen to 997 mb. The storm was moving northwest at 6 km/h (3 mph). Tropical-storm-force winds extended outward up to 150 km (90 miles) from the center. No coastal watches or warnings were in effect. NHC said Vance was forecast to continue a slow northwest to north-northwest motion over the following few days. The agency expected the storm to become a hurricane during the night of October 22 and said it could become a major hurricane by the weekend. Satellite observations during the previous NHC forecast cycle showed Vance becoming better organized, with deep convection expanding near the center and very cold cloud tops. NHC had identified warm sea-surface temperatures, low vertical wind shear, and sufficient mid-level moisture as favorable for substantial strengthening during the next couple of days.

Champi briefly reaches super typhoon strength after its closest approach to Guam causes widespread outages - Typhoon Champi passed about 16 km (10 miles) south of Merizo, Guam, at 04:26 ChST on October 18 (18:26 UTC on October 17) and was upgraded to a super typhoon about three hours later. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) post-analysis placed its 00:00 UTC intensity at 269 km/h (167 mph) before the cyclone weakened to 222 km/h (140 mph) by 12:00 UTC, while Guam authorities reported widespread power outages and disruptions to water services. The National Weather Service (NWS) in Guam said Champi’s small eyewall passed just south of the island, placing the strongest typhoon-force winds over southern Guam. Its 07:57 ChST (21:57 UTC on October 17) advisory, based on conditions at 07:00 ChST (21:00 UTC), upgraded Champi to a super typhoon with maximum sustained winds of 241 km/h (150 mph). At 19:00 ChST (09:00 UTC), JTWC placed Super Typhoon Champi about 289 km (180 miles) west-southwest of Andersen Air Force Base. It was moving west at 22 km/h (14 mph) with maximum sustained winds of 241 km/h (150 mph). A later review of earlier data led JTWC to raise its estimate for 00:00 UTC to 269 km/h (167 mph) JTWC said Champi’s inner core weakened after the 00:00 UTC peak as a second eyewall formed and dry air entered the storm. This happened even though surrounding conditions remained favorable, with low vertical wind shear of 19–28 km/h (12–17 mph), sea-surface temperatures of 29–30°C (84–86°F) and strong outflow high in the atmosphere. JTWC downgraded the system from a super typhoon in Warning Number 17, issued at 15:00 UTC. Champi’s center was about 346 km (215 miles) west of Naval Station Guam at the time. The Guam Power Authority (GPA) said approximately 75% of the island still had electricity at 05:30 ChST (19:30 UTC on October 17), shortly after Champi’s closest approach. More power lines went offline as the winds shifted, reducing the powered share of the island to about 50% by 07:50 ChST (21:50 UTC). At 09:00 ChST (23:00 UTC on October 17), GPA reported that approximately 51% of its power-distribution feeders and circuits were online. The island’s power system did not suffer a complete blackout, but outages affected many areas, especially in southern Guam. Most transmission lines supplying northern Guam remained intact. Power remained available to Naval Base Guam, most of Hotel Row in Tumon, Guam Memorial Hospital, Harmon Industrial Park, Andersen Air Force Base, Camp Blaz and underground systems in Tumon and Tamuning. Substations at Talofofo, Umatac, Radio Barrigada and part of Pulantat were affected. The Guam Waterworks Authority reported 98 production wells operating at 08:00 ChST (22:00 UTC on October 17), including 72 running on standby generators. All sewer pump stations and wastewater treatment plants remained online. The Ugum Surface Water Treatment Plant was shut down after flooding increased turbidity, or the amount of suspended material, in the Ugum River. Parts of Pago Bay, Malesso’ and Latte Heights had low water pressure or no water service. The utility adjusted wells, pump stations and reservoirs as power failed and generators took over. The Joint Information Center said at 08:15 ChST (22:15 UTC on October 17) that no sewer overflows had been reported. Guam Memorial Hospital continued treating patients during the storm. Three people received storm-related emergency care, including one person with minor injuries from a wind-related fall, and all three were discharged after treatment.

Super Typhoon Champi becomes the strongest tropical cyclone of 2026, Signal No. 2 remains over Batanes, Philippines - Super Typhoon Champi, locally named Rosal, became the strongest tropical cyclone of 2026 by maximum sustained wind speed when it reached 296 km/h (185 mph) on October 20, according to NASA’s MODIS program. The cyclone weakened on October 21 while moving toward waters east of the northern Philippines, where PAGASA maintained Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 2 over Batanes and warned of heavy rain and waves reaching 10 m (33 feet). Satellite image of Super Typhoon Champi at 1210 UTC on October 21, 2026. The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) located Rosal about 725 km (450 miles) east of Aparri, Cagayan, at 17:00 PHT (09:00 UTC) on October 21. PAGASA estimated maximum sustained winds of 205 km/h (127 mph), with gusts reaching 250 km/h (155 mph). The cyclone was moving west-northwest at 25 km/h (16 mph). Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 2 remained in effect over Batanes. PAGASA said winds greater than 62 km/h and up to 88 km/h (39–55 mph) could produce minor to moderate impacts in exposed communities. Signal No. 1 covered Cagayan, including the Babuyan Islands, eastern portions of Isabela, Ilocos Norte, Apayao and northeastern Catanduanes. PAGASA said Signal No. 3 remained the highest signal that could be raised during Rosal’s passage.

Taiwan issues warnings as Typhoon Champi nears - A powerful typhoon headed toward Taiwan on Thursday, triggering the cancellation of dozens of flights and prompting warnings for locals to prepare for heavy rain, strong winds and giant waves. Typhoon Champi is expected to sweep past Taiwan's northeast coast on Friday and Saturday as it moves toward China and Japan, Taiwan's Central Weather Administration (CWA) said. Champi is packing maximum sustained wind speeds of 213 kilometers (132 miles) per hour, according to the latest update from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. It was previously classed as a super typhoon, with reported maximum sustained wind speeds of nearly 300 kph (186 miles per hour), but it has since weakened. "Everyone is urged to remain vigilant and be prepared for the strong winds and heavy rains brought by the typhoon," Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te said in a Facebook post. Champi is the latest in a busy Pacific storm season turbocharged by the El Niño weather phenomenon that has caused unprecedented warming in the equatorial Pacific. The storm is expected to dump up to 900 millimeters (35 inches) of rain in the mountainous regions of northern and northeastern Taiwan from Thursday to Saturday, and whip up waves more than six meters (20 feet) tall. More than 23,000 military personnel are on standby to help with rescue efforts. Over 150 domestic and international flights were canceled for Thursday ahead of the storm. "Typhoon Champi is expected to have its most significant impact starting all day tomorrow through the first half of Saturday," CWA forecaster Jason Cheng told AFP. "Currently, the typhoon has a storm radius of 320 kilometers (199 miles)... Compared to the previous Typhoon Bavi, Champi's storm area is not as vast," Cheng said. Millions of people in eastern China also braced for torrential downpours and flash flooding in the coming days. China's Ministry of Water Resources initiated a level four emergency response on Thursday for flooding in Shanghai and the coastal provinces of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Fujian. Level four is the lowest in China's emergency response hierarchy. The ministry warned that Champi could bring "a period of significant rainfall" from Friday to Sunday, with "heavy to torrential downpours" expected in some areas, including "most of Shanghai and eastern Zhejiang." Japan's two major airlines canceled more than 110 flights from Thursday to Saturday. The United Nations said Wednesday that the El Niño gripping the planet is heading off the charts, and that countries should take urgent action to prepare for the worst. El Niño is expected to peak in December, but the human impact is set to last into 2027 and beyond. The warming phase of a natural climate cycle, El Niño temporarily raises sea temperatures in the tropical Pacific, triggering changes in weather that can increase the risk of drought and flooding, and exacerbate man-made global warming.

Taiwan shuts down as Typhoon Champi approaches - Most shops and schools were shut across Taiwan on Friday as Typhoon Champi neared the island, forcing hundreds of people to leave their homes ahead of the powerful storm. The typhoon is expected to sweep past Taiwan's northeast as it moves toward China and Japan, triggering the cancellation of hundreds of flights in the region. At least one person has been killed in Taiwan after being swept away by waves whipped up by the typhoon, authorities said. Dozens of others have been injured. Champi is the latest in a busy Pacific storm season turbocharged by the El Niño weather phenomenon that has caused unprecedented warming in the equatorial Pacific. The storm was briefly a super typhoon as it crossed the ocean, but has been weakening as it approaches Taiwan and now has maximum sustained wind speeds of 167 kilometers (104 miles) per hour, according to the latest update from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Waves crash against concrete wave breakers along the coast as Typhoon Champi approaches Taiwan, in Keelung on Oct. 23. Heavy rain, strong winds and giant waves are forecast for Friday and Saturday, and thousands of military personnel are on standby to assist with rescue efforts. More than 1,200 people had been evacuated from their homes ahead of Champi. "As it approaches Taiwan's northeastern tip ... the typhoon may slow down. If it slows down, its impact will last longer," the Central Weather Administration's Lu Kuo-chen told a briefing. In Japan, several local events in the southern Okinawa prefecture have been canceled. There has been no change to the ongoing Japan–U.S. joint military exercise, Keen Sword, being held in various parts of Japan, but a Japanese military spokeswoman has said they will be "flexible" in implementing the drill. Professional storm chaser James Reynolds posted a video on X from Ishigaki showing a "fierce storm tide" in a channel leading to the island's harbor as Champi's strong winds whipped across the water. "I'm seeing the ocean do things I've not seen in 20 years of doing this!!" Reynolds said in the post.

Four deaths reported as DANA Adam flooding prompts more than 1 000 rescues in eastern Spain -  5 YouTube videos -  DANA Adam brought torrential rain and severe flooding to eastern Spain from October 17 to 19, 2026, prompting restrictions across 145 municipalities in Valencia and Alicante. Emergency services carried out more than 1 000 rescues on October 19, while four deaths were reported during the wider storm episode and AEMET said Pego received 632 mm (24.9 inches) of rain in 36 hours. Spain’s State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) named Adam the first high-impact DANA of the 2026–27 season. DANA is the Spanish abbreviation for an isolated upper-level low, or depresión aislada en niveles altos. In Special Notice 37/2026, issued at 13:39 LT (11:39 UTC) on October 18, AEMET forecast more than 60–90 mm (2.4–3.5 inches) in one hour and up to 200–300 mm (7.9–11.8 inches) in 12 hours along the southern Valencia coast and around Cape La Nao. Local totals of 300–400 mm (11.8–15.7 inches) were forecast over the full episode, with isolated higher amounts possible. AEMET said Pego, Alicante, received 632 mm (24.9 inches) of rain in 36 hours. The agency’s observations showed 465.2 mm (18.3 inches) at Pego on October 19 alone; operational observations are provisional and undergo only real-time quality control. Three deaths were reported in the Valencian Community. A 79-year-old woman with reduced mobility was found dead on the ground floor of her home in Oliva, while her niece was rescued alive. A 64-year-old man died after suffering a heart attack at a flooded campsite in the same municipality. A 54-year-old woman was found dead after entering the sea at Sagunto during the storm. In Catalonia, a 35-year-old woman was swept into the Cabrera de Mar stream on October 17, and her body was recovered the following day near the port of Premià de Mar. A farmer was found dead in the Pego–Oliva marsh on October 20. Guardia Civil sources told EFE that preliminary information indicated a medical emergency, and investigators had not linked the death to the flooding. He is not included in the four-death total. A separate death near Benaoján, Málaga, occurred when a rock fell onto a vehicle, but authorities had not confirmed a connection with the storm as of October 20. That death is also excluded from the flood death toll.

Kelvin wave nears San Diego as coastal flooding fears grow -- A gigantic wave barreling across the Pacific is expected to crash into the US West Coast within days, threatening homes and communities in the path. Oceanographer Dillon Amaya from North Carolina State University said multiple Kelvin waves are moving north toward the coast, with the next one expected to reach San Diego by late October to the first week of November. One already hit the California Coast this month and is believed to have contributed to coastal flooding and evacuations of waterfront homes during Tropical Storm Rachel. Known as a Kelvin wave, the phenomenon is a planetary-scale wave of warm ocean water that forms when the usual tropical winds weaken during El Niño. This lets warm water that typically piles up in the western Pacific slosh east across the equator, slamming into South America first and then moving up the coast toward the US. The result is sudden and dramatically higher sea levels of up to a foot. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has warned that California could see a 'quintuple whammy' this year, as warmer ocean temperatures, tropical storms, high tides, Kelvin waves and climate change combine to raise sea levels and threaten thousands along the coast.  NOAA said in a statement on October 6: 'There are one or two more that are still in the tropics.' Amaya warned that five or six Kelvin waves typically charge across the Pacific during a strong El Niño year, an event that causes global weather patterns to flip as the ocean becomes abnormally warm. The last Kelvin wave to make its way up the West Coast is believed to have combined with the impact of Rachel, raising sea levels by several inches and making the storm’s waves and surge more damaging. Between October 10 and 11, 2026, Tropical Storm Rachel’s remnants flooded streets and homes in places like the Long Beach Peninsula and Newport Beach’s Balboa Peninsula. In Long Beach, waves overtopped and damaged the boardwalk, sending seawater into homes and leading to evacuations and about a dozen homes being marked as unsafe to enter. Similar coastal flooding and erosion occurred along other south-facing beaches in the San Diego area. 'That storm surge was almost certainly made more devastating because of the Kelvin wave,' Amaya told NPR. NOAA added in a statement: 'Kelvin waves can add up to six to 12 inches, which temporarily does not pose much danger.  But when there are very high tides or storm surges, their effects can be amplified because the sea level is already a bit higher.' Amaya described this as 'a planetary-scale wave' which is thousands of miles across. They first crash into the northern half of South America, before bouncing northwards and rolling up the coast of Mexico and then the US. Mark Cane, a climate scientist and professor emeritus at Columbia University, compared the waves to an 'enormous bathtub' sloshing during El Niño years. 'The slosh is very peculiar, because it only goes west to east along the equator in a Kelvin wave,' Cane noted.AccuWeather Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok said the El Niño that emerged this summer could be a record-breaker, surpassing similar events in 1982 and 1997, with temperatures in the Pacific predicted to rise by nearly five degrees Fahrenheit. In the US, this warming pushes the natural jet stream flowing over the center of the country farther south, bringing moisture and storms to many southern states that rarely see snow during winter. In the Pacific, the warmer sea-surface temperatures create the perfect recipe for more tropical storms and hurricanes to form. At the same time, the normal east-to-west trade winds weaken or reverse. Without those usual trade winds holding the warm water in the west, the giant Kelvin waves form and slowly carry the elevated warm water eastward across the Pacific and up the West Coast. AccuWeather forecasters have warned that the potentially record-setting heat in the Pacific this year will likely carry the effects of El Niño well into 2027, possibly affecting the climate throughout the entire year. The next Kelvin waves are expected to arrive along the West Coast throughout the fall and early winter, according to Amaya. Typically, the waves fade before the peak of an El Niño event in early January.

'Bridge Moms' reactivates, calls for emergency bridge solution after second N.C. 12 washout in less than a month - The Bridge Moms, a Hatteras Island community advocacy group that pushed for the replacement of the aging Herbert C. Bonner Bridge more than 15 years ago, has reactivated following another round of significant storm damage on Pea Island, calling on Gov. Josh Stein to visit the area and pursue an emergency bridge solution for N.C. Highway 12. The renewed effort comes after a prolonged nor’easter caused extensive dune erosion and pavement damage near the Pea Island Visitor Center, forcing N.C. 12 to close between the Marc Basnight Bridge at Oregon Inlet and Rodanthe for the second time in less than a month. According to the North Carolina Department of Transportation (NCDOT), approximately 800 feet of highway pavement was damaged during the latest storm, while an estimated 1,800 feet of protective dunes were lost to persistent waves and ocean overwash. The latest damage follows a late-September nor’easter that also closed N.C. 12 near the visitor center on September 24, prompting emergency repairs and a temporary roadway detour before two lanes of traffic reopened Oct. 3. Natalie Kavanagh, who announced the reactivation of Bridge Moms, is encouraging Hatteras Island residents, property owners, and others concerned about the highway to contact Stein directly through the governor’s official website. “We need to reach Governor Stein about the need for an emergency bridge solution at Pea Island,” Kavanagh stated. “We have been asking for a solution since last October and we are still having the ocean over washing Highway 12 when we have a storm.” Kavanagh emphasized that participation in the campaign is not limited to Bridge Moms members. “We need you and everyone who cares for Hatteras Island to do this now. It doesn’t matter if you are a Bridge Mom or not!” The group is asking supporters to contact the governor through the official constituent contact form, describe their personal experiences with repeated highway closures, and request that he visit Pea Island to see the conditions firsthand. Kavanagh provided a suggested message for supporters that emphasizes the highway’s importance to public safety and the local economy. “Cape Hatteras and Ocracoke Island residents depend on this state highway for our safety and economic stability,” the sample letter states. “We are in dire need for an emergency bridge to keep access going until a long term solution can be found.” The letter also asks Stein to visit Pea Island and witness the damage firsthand. “Our leaders need to know how much we need their help! Your email will show that need,” Kavanagh stated.

Where El Niño may impact California coastal areas this winter -- Driving across Highway 37 in the San Francisco Bay Area on the best of days already feels like driving on top of water. Buffeted on both sides by marshlands hosting egrets, herons, ducks and a handful of endangered species, the sea-level highway is a major connector linking Marin, Sonoma, Napa and Solano counties. It is also the sinking flagship for California's vulnerability to sea level rise, according to the "Coastal Flooding Risks for California" report released this week from the University of California, Davis. Recent shoreline flooding in Southern California may be a precursor of what's facing California this winter, said report author Fraser Shilling, director of the UC Davis Road Ecology Center, at the Institute of Transportation Studies. Highway 37 and other roads and highways along California's coastline are extremely vulnerable to floods and failure during this winter's coming El Niño, the report said. "We face the risk—though not the certainty—of catastrophic flooding in a variety of coastal towns this winter," Shilling said. "It's important to be informed of risk so you can make decisions." Other high-risk areas in the state include:

Avila Beach in San Luis Obispo County
Moss Landing and Highway 1 in Monterey County
Santa Cruz's beachfront areas
Highway 101 within Corte Madera and San Rafael
San Rafael's Canal District
The eastern approach to the San Francisco Bay Bridge
San Francisco and Oakland international airports

The Coastal Flooding Risks report comes 10 years after the center's 2016 report, which warned of major flood risk along Highway 37 from future sea level rise. That report examined potential solutions, such as moving the highway inland, or elevating it onto a causeway—a multibillion-dollar endeavor. Caltrans is currently conducting emergency storm preparations at multiple closure points along the highway. "Ten years ago, our report said, 'This is what we expect to start happening within the next 10 years,'" Shilling said. "The problems haven't been fixed, and some of those things are going to start happening on 37 and other coastal roadways." Earlier this month in Long Beach and Newport Beach, an El Niño–induced Kelvin wave combined with a high tide and wave action to produce an additional 2 to 3 feet (0.6 to 0.9 meters) of sea level rise. It extensively damaged and flooded coastal properties and environments there. Shilling wondered how a similar amount of sea level rise would affect Central and Northern California's towns and highways, as El Niño is expected to deliver a historically wet winter. Shilling used the publicly available Surging Seas—Risk Zone Map, a tool created by Climate Central, to understand at what amount of sea level rise coastal California's towns and highways would flood. High-risk areas lit up the screen in a flood of blue. At 2 feet (0.6 meters) of sea level rise, airports and lowland beaches and marshes at the Bay Bridge begin to flood. At 2 to 3 feet (0.6 to 0.9 meters), portions of San Francisco and Oakland international airports, Corte Madera, San Rafael and West Oakland start to flood, at least temporarily. But the most obvious areas are along Highway 37, which has stretches that are both protected and unprotected by local levees. Shilling said a blowout of a state-owned levee along the Petaluma River west of Lakeville Highway could close Highway 37 and leave a 6-square-mile (15.5-square-kilometer) agricultural area between Lakeville Highway and the Lakeville marina up to 3 feet (0.9 meters) underwater. Major flooding or levee failures along stretches of Highway 37 could also close the road for months. About 40,000 cars commute along Highway 37 every day. Delays cost an estimated $40 per hour per car, making the potential economic impact of closing Highway 37 alone more than $1.5 million per day. El Niño–related flooding also threatens area marshes and wildlife. The state and federally listed endangered salt marsh harvest mouse is endemic to Bay Area marshes. Arrowhead Marsh in Oakland is also home to one of the largest remaining populations of Ridgway's rail, a federally endangered bird that rarely flies and spends its days in the cordgrass. Both the bird and the mouse have to scramble when high tides and flooding arrive, leaving them particularly vulnerable this winter when some of their last remaining habitat is expected to flood completely. "Whether you are an endangered species living in a marsh, a commuter on a Bay Area highway, or own a home on the shore, this winter has the risk of being the most catastrophic in recent history," Shilling said. "My center and others have been sounding the alarm on this issue for over a decade. Catastrophes will start unrolling without significant state and federal government response."

NASA satellites observe historic 2026 El Niño - El Niño is a natural climate pattern that emerges roughly every two to seven years, marked by warmer-than-normal water temperatures in parts of the equatorial Pacific. NASA scientists are keeping watch as it flips trade winds, redistributes ocean heat, scrambles rain patterns and raises sea surface height across parts of the Pacific.As of October, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has said that there's an 83% chance that the strongest El Niño since 1950 is currently unfolding. People around the world, including farmers, firefighters and coastal communities, are already experiencing the effects in different ways.Follow along with these maps as NASA tracks El Niño from its epicenter in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.One of the first clues appeared in satellite imagery in January 2026, when a swell of warm water called a Kelvin wave was spotted near Micronesia in the western Pacific. Kelvin waves are slow-moving pulses of water thousands of miles long. Like underwater freeways, they transfer heat from west to east across the Pacific. The warm water heats the air directly above it, making it rise. The change in air pressures weakens or even reverses the trade winds that typically blow in the opposing direction, from the Americas toward Asia, causing sea levels in the eastern Pacific to rise further and waters to warm even more. This chain reaction signifies the start of an El Niño. The map above shows that by early April, those Kelvin waves had reached the eastern Pacific, and sea surface temperatures had begun to warm. Warm water expands in volume, elevating local sea levels in some areas by as much as 1 to 1.3 feet (30 to 40 centimeters). The higher-than-normal water can be seen sloshing toward South America then moving up the coast to California. Sea levels that are 6 to 8 inches (15 to 20 centimeters) lower than normal are visible around Indonesia and northern Australia. "Kelvin waves are like the heartbeat of El Niño," said Josh Willis, project scientist for sea level missions at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California. "And our sea level satellites let us peer into the ocean and watch every beat." Scientists have used satellite altimetry to track the height of the ocean with ultraprecision since 1993. That unbroken data record continues today with the Sentinel-6 satellites. State-of-the-art radar altimeters aboard these satellites survey millions of square miles of ocean in a single day, complementing NOAA's fleet of ocean sensors and buoys drifting and diving through the water below. The map above compares sea surface temperatures in 2025 (a weak La Niña year) and 2026. Data are acquired from satellite instruments, buoys and ship sensors. Warmer-than-normal seawater is one of the best-known indicators of El Niño. Already, sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific are about 3 degrees Fahrenheit (1.7 degrees Celsius) warmer than the long-term average and could jump another fraction of a degree in the coming months, Willis said. Satellites carrying microwave and infrared radiometers can see through and around clouds to measure heat energy at the sea surface. Satellites in 2026 mapped the band of warmer-than-normal water as it expanded throughout the spring. The band, seen in dark red, stretches for millions of square miles from the heart of the Pacific to the coast of South America. Ocean temperatures can influence weather patterns around the world. Air above the water's surface carries heat and moisture into the atmosphere, seeding rainstorms and rearranging weather patterns across the globe. El Niño's warm waters also change the color of the ocean. A NASA satellite is tracking these subtle shifts in hues, as equatorial Pacific waters have become measurably bluer over the last several months. "Some people think of water as being just blue, but it's amazing the multitude of colors the ocean can be," said Matthew Kehrli, a lead research scientist for the PACE (Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem) satellite team at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. This spectrum is in part thanks to microscopic plants called phytoplankton, which form the basis of the marine food web. There are thousands of different species of phytoplankton, which come in shades like teal, brown or green. This year, in areas of the Pacific Ocean along the equator that are typically lush with phytoplankton and greener as a result, these hues are waning. This is an expected effect of El Niño. Phytoplankton thrive in cool, nutrient-rich waters, but during an El Niño, the weakening trade winds reduce the upwelling of nutrient-rich deep water to the ocean surface. With limited food supply, phytoplankton abundance drops. This decline can trigger cascading effects across the marine food web, forcing other marine life to relocate to new feeding grounds. This year's El Niño is the first since PACE launched in 2024, providing new views of the phenomenon. The Ocean Color Instrument aboard PACE observes the ocean in hyperspectral color—across several hundred different wavelengths of visible, near-infrared and ultraviolet light—monitoring phytoplankton and other ocean-color changes in near-real time. With PACE data, researchers calculate the average color of the ocean, simplifying spectra of light into a single number, known as apparent visible wavelength. The 2026 map above shows the green area along the equator in the western Pacific Ocean shrink as a bluer shade fills in, indicating fewer phytoplankton. In contrast, the map from 2025 shows how the green-hued section stays steady over time. "You have expectations of what you would think would happen," Kehrli said. "But to visually see the results with the data products that you're working with in real time is gratifying." NASA scientists will continue to monitor the signs and impacts of this El Niño with the agency's fleet of Earth-observing satellites. "El Niño touches almost all of us in some way every time it occurs," Willis said. "While many have seen what it can do, we look to the ocean to understand why."

Record El Niño? Depends who's counting - Britain's Met Office says this year's El Niño is "unprecedented." Japan's weather agency has called it the strongest ever observed. U.S. forecasters say it still trails the biggest events in its record books. How can they all be right? The answer lies in how they measure El Niño's strength, with meteorological agencies using different methods to assess the climate phenomenon that make direct comparisons difficult. "By any measure, we are looking at a very strong El Niño," climate scientist Emily Becker of the University of Miami told AFP, adding that only once it is over will scientists be able to assess how big it is and "where it fits in the context of history." The Pacific Ocean's El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the planet's main natural climate driver. Normally, trade winds blow east to west along the equator, pushing warm water from South America toward Asia, while cold water rises from the depths to replace it. El Niños, which occur every two to seven years on average and last nine to 12 months, disrupt this pattern. The trade winds weaken and warm water is pushed back east toward the Americas. That shift in where ocean heat is released into the atmosphere ripples across global weather, making some regions cooler and wetter and others hotter and drier. In describing the El Niño as unprecedented, the Met Office points to raw temperatures in the Pacific. "Our observations confirm that sea-surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific have now surpassed levels recorded during previous El Niño events," it said in a statement to AFP. But absolute temperatures are just one way of measuring El Niño's strength. Agencies also look at anomalies—how far temperatures rise above a historic baseline—to assess the event. The Japan Meteorological Agency last week declared this El Niño the strongest on record based on how far sea surface temperatures were above normal in the Nino3 region of the eastern Pacific. By its count, the event beat 1997 in observations going back to 1949. The U.S. watches a neighboring box, Nino3.4, in the east-central Pacific. It declares an El Niño when temperatures there run at least 0.5C above normal and the atmosphere responds, weakening the trade winds and shifting tropical rainfall eastward. This process is known as "ocean-atmosphere coupling." How "normal" is defined has been a matter of significant debate. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and other agencies including the U.N.'s World Meteorological Organization long used the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), which compares temperatures to a 30-year average that is updated every five years, so that the baseline keeps pace with a warming climate. But with climate change speeding up and warming oceans worldwide, NOAA now uses the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI), and the WMO is in the process of switching. RONI also relies on a 30-year average but goes on to measure how warm or cool the east-central Pacific is compared to the rest of the tropical ocean, because it is that difference that drives the weather impacts we care about. "We were finding a mismatch between the temperature of the tropical Pacific and the impacts," said Becker about the old index. La Niña years, when the central and eastern tropical Pacific is cooler than normal, were producing stronger effects than their rating suggested, and El Niños weaker ones. NOAA projects this El Niño will be the strongest in its records, which go back to 1950, if the three-month average RONI anomaly reaches 2.5C or higher, a level that would put it above the 1982–83, 2015–16 and 1997–98 events. The chances are rated "high," but not yet certain. "Regardless of where we're ranking or how we're measuring this event, it's an incredible opportunity to study and understand this very powerful phenomenon in the context of a warming world," said Becker.

Wildfires cause Amazon to emit 1.17 billion more metric tons of CO₂ than it absorbs - From 2010 to 2024, the Amazon rainforest—the largest tropical rainforest on the planet—released an average of 1.17 billion metric tons more carbon dioxide (CO₂) into the atmosphere than it absorbed each year. Wildfires were the main source, emitting approximately 1.47 billion metric tons of CO₂ per year—far exceeding the forest's absorption capacity of 300 million metric tons per year. This information comes from a study published in Nature and led by scientists from Brazil's National Institute for Space Research (INPE). Based on an analysis of 15 years of measurements of atmospheric carbon, the primary greenhouse gas, the study identified human activities as the factor responsible for this imbalance. Therefore, the study emphasizes the need for a drastic reduction in wildfires, combined with zero deforestation and forest restoration, to prevent the forest from reaching a tipping point—a threshold beyond which it loses its ability to sustain itself and recover, giving way to other types of vegetation.This warning is particularly important given that the number of wildfires in the Brazilian Amazon is approaching the total for 2025. According to INPE data, there have been more than 41,200 recorded fires in less than 10 months (58% of which occurred in September and October), compared to 43,130 fires for all of last year.Dense smoke has blanketed municipalities in the state of Amazonas, especially the capital city of Manaus. This has led to the suspension of classes, an overload of the health care system due to respiratory problems and an investigation into environmental crime with suspicion of deliberate human action. "The main message of the study is shocking: the problem in the Amazon is human activity. We're losing the forest because the region's development model has been based on destruction. We need public policies that value the standing forest," says Luciana Vanni Gatti, climate scientist, coordinator of INPE's Greenhouse Gas Laboratory (LaGEE) and lead author of the article. In addition to identifying factors associated with emissions, the study highlights changes in the region's climate conditions over the decades. By analyzing data from the past 46 years, the scientists found that deforestation and degradation in the Amazon have reduced annual precipitation by 8% and by 20% during the peak of the dry season (between August and October). During the same period, the average annual temperature increased by 1.13°C, and by 1.81°C during the dry season. According to Gatti, these changes compromise the conditions necessary for the rainforest's survival. They contribute to a feedback loop in which the loss of vegetation reduces rainfall and raises temperatures. This leads to further fires and accelerates the degradation of the remaining forest. "It places enormous stress on the remaining forest," the researcher said. The scientists compared periods with different climatic conditions and levels of human intervention. The data were divided into three groups:

1. Rainy years (2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2017 and 2018) with low levels of human activity.
2. Years with low climate stress (between 2019 and 2022) and high rates of deforestation (97% increase) and wildfires (25% increase).
3. Hot and dry years (2010, 2015, 2016, 2023 and 2024) during which phenomena such as El Niño and the warming of the North Tropical Atlantic had an impact. This was associated with a sharp increase in wildfires (92%).

The results showed that, on average, the Amazon shifted from being a CO₂ sink to a CO₂ source during the years in groups 2 and 3. This occurred due to a surplus of emissions in the "carbon balance," which considers all absorption and release processes, whether natural or human-induced. In group 2, emissions were nearly four times higher than in group 1, reaching an average balance equivalent to approximately 1.58 billion metric tons of CO₂ per year. Group 3 had the highest value, with an average balance of 1.8 billion metric tons of CO₂ per year. A region's carbon balance can be altered by natural and human-induced factors, including the burning of fossil fuels such as oil, natural gas and coal. However, plant photosynthesis is the process that contributes to the removal of significant amounts of atmospheric CO₂ and is essential for the growth and survival of vegetation. For this reason, forests are considered major carbon sinks. The carbon is released back into the atmosphere when this vegetation dies or decomposes slowly. Forest fires also abruptly and immediately release the CO₂ present in plant biomass. After accounting for emissions from fires, the Amazon absorbed nearly the same amount of CO₂ as it released back into the atmosphere in the three groups of years analyzed. This left the biome's "net biome exchange" (NBE) close to neutral. Consequently, little to no CO₂ was absorbed to offset the greenhouse gases released by the fires, highlighting the significant impact of human activities on this imbalance. "Were it not for La Niña, emissions in group 2 years could have been even worse. Thanks to that phenomenon, the Amazon's carbon absorption during the rainy season offset 75% of the emissions during the dry season," Gatti explains. La Niña occurs when the equatorial waters of the Pacific Ocean cool to at least 0.5°C below the historical average. These cycles typically last nine to 12 months and occur every two to seven years. This triggers a series of climatic effects across the planet. In Brazil, for example, it leads to reduced rainfall in the South and increased precipitation in the North and Northeast. Between 2020 and 2023, the so-called "triple dip" of La Niña occurred for the first time in more than two decades. This consists of the persistence of abnormal cooling in the Pacific for three consecutive Southern Hemisphere summers.

Repeated kicks as the Sun sheds mass could destabilize the giant planets far sooner than expected - Numerical experiments suggest that thousands of small recoils experienced by the Sun as it loses its outer envelope could radically rearrange the orbits of Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune. Under the study’s fiducial assumptions, about 90% of simulated outer Solar Systems became unstable within 3 billion years, replacing a picture in which the giant planets were expected to remain dynamically intact for far longer. For decades, calculations of the Solar System’s remote future treated the Sun’s post-main-sequence mass loss as essentially smooth. In that limit, the giant planets move outward as the Sun becomes less massive but retain much of their present orbital architecture. Batygin, Fuller and Adams (2026) tested a different physical picture motivated by evidence that newly formed white dwarfs receive recoil velocities: the stellar envelope leaves through many discrete, asymmetric ejections, each giving the star a small kick in the opposite direction. The new calculations show that the accumulated kicks can become dynamically important even though each individual impulse is small. That distinction changes the scientific question. Earlier work placed the intrinsic chaotic lifetime of the outer Solar System near 1018 years, while calculations including solar mass loss and disruptive stellar flybys produced estimates of roughly 30–100 billion years. The new study finds that if future solar mass loss has the granularity implied by the episodic-ejection model, instability can develop during the Sun’s giant-branch evolution and becomes widespread on billion-year rather than tens-of-billions-to-quintillions-of-years timescales. The physical mechanism is a random walk in the planets’ orbits. An asymmetric ejection removes a parcel of stellar material and produces a recoil of the Sun. From a planet’s frame of reference, that sudden change in the star’s motion perturbs the planet’s heliocentric orbit. One kick has little effect, but thousands occurring at unrelated orbital phases accumulate rather than averaging away, changing orbital periods, eccentricities, inclinations and the spacing between neighboring planets. In the study’s fiducial case, each ejection carries about 10⁻⁴ solar masses and the Sun experiences approximately 4 600 recoils, with a median impulse near 7 m/s. The researchers examined 672 realizations spanning a range of ejection masses. The chosen fiducial scale is tied to models developed to explain white-dwarf recoil: Fuller (2026) found that asymmetric ejections of order 10⁻⁴ solar masses can accumulate into net stellar kicks of order several tenths of a kilometer per second. The resulting orbital evolution differs sharply from the smooth-loss control experiments. More than 60 integrations with smooth solar mass loss remained qualitatively stable as the Sun evolved toward a modeled 0.538-solar-mass white dwarf. The giant planets’ orbital radii expanded by a factor of about 1.85, while their period ratios and broader dynamical architecture remained largely preserved. Discrete recoils produced a much broader set of outcomes. At the fiducial ejection scale, 37 of 48 realizations in the study’s all-phases experiment developed orbit-crossing configurations before solar mass loss ended. By the time the white dwarf formed, 19 of 48, or about 40%, had undergone disruption or violent scattering. Representative simulations included Saturn being ejected and Uranus and Neptune exchanging their orbital order. Computer simulation of a red giant star near the end of its life1 Computer simulation of a red giant star near the end of its life. Color shading shows density, with white showing the high-density stellar core, and dim orange showing the stellar wind. The plume of material to the bottom right is a mass ejection event that imparts a kick to the star. Credit: Bernd Freytag, Uppsala University The researchers then followed the post-mass-loss systems for 3 billion years without external stellar perturbations. At the fiducial ejection scale, 96% of systems in the all-phases calculation became unstable, compared with 83% when episodic ejections were restricted to the asymptotic giant branch (AGB). The paper summarizes the fiducial result as roughly 90% instability within 3 billion years. Instability onset ranged from a few million years to beyond 2.5 billion years after white-dwarf formation. The difference between the two prescriptions is an important limitation. The physical episodic-ejection model is best motivated for the AGB, a late evolutionary phase in which a swollen star loses its envelope rapidly. Extending the same prescription through other giant-branch phases gives the kicks more time to perturb the planets and permits instability to begin earlier. The AGB-only calculations produced no red-giant-branch disruption, although most fiducial systems still became unstable during the subsequent 3-billion-year integrations. Orbital instability did not take a single form. Stochastic recoil altered the ratios of planetary orbital periods, increased eccentricities and changed mutual inclinations. Neptune reached eccentricities near 0.5 in some realizations. Repeated kicks could also move pairs of planets into mean-motion resonances, configurations in which their orbital periods become locked into simple numerical relationships. Eight of the 672 realizations formed both the Jupiter-Saturn 5:2 and Uranus-Neptune 2:1 resonances simultaneously, although resonant capture did not guarantee long-term survival in the more strongly perturbed cases.

US is a big reason for the world losing ground in the fight against climate change, UN report says -- Losing more ground in the fight against climate change, humanity is heading for a hotter world than experts projected last year—and the United States is a big reason for that, a new United Nations report says. If all the countries do what they promise to reduce heat-trapping emissions, Earth will likely still warm another 2.2 degrees Fahrenheit (1.2 degrees Celsius) above current temperatures, according to Wednesday's update of climate calculations by the United Nations Environment Programme. That's about two-tenths of a degree Fahrenheit (0.1 degrees Celsius) more than last year's projections by the same science team. "This is a worse outcome than expected last year, as a result of the formal withdrawal of the United States of America from the Paris Agreement and revised estimates of historical emissions," the report said. The report also blames the United States for increased emissions last year, saying all the other top 20 major economies reduced their carbon pollution or at least slowed the growth in how much carbon dioxide was spewed from the burning of coal, oil and gas. "In terms of magnitude, the increase in the United States of America (133 megatons of CO₂ equivalent) far exceeded that of all other countries and was driven by increased electricity demand and a rebound of coal power generation," the report said. The 124 countries that increased emissions—not counting the 63 that decreased like most European nations—added 189 million tons of carbon dioxide in 2025, and 70% of that increase came from the U.S., according to the report. The United States is going "hell-for-leather trying to block renewables while actively promoting and subsidizing dirty coal—and its diplomacy is trying to make other countries also pull back on action. It is looking at the fire, denying there is a fire, and then pouring more gasoline on it," said Australian climate scientist Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, which measures countries' climate-fighting plans. He wasn't part of the U.N. report but, like several other outside scientists, said it was scientifically sound. The new calculations say that if countries do all they promise in the climate-fighting plans they submitted to the United Nations, by 2100 the globe will be 2.6 degrees Celsius (4.7 degrees Fahrenheit) hotter than preindustrial times. If the world continues on its current path—without national promises—it will be 2.8 degrees Celsius (5 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than the last half of the 19th century, the same as last year's projection. Both of those temperatures blow far past the goal of less than 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) and preferably 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) adopted by the 2015 Paris climate pact. The world is now at about 1.4 degrees Celsius (2.5 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial times and earlier this year—and again in this report—United Nations officials conceded that there is no way of limiting warming to the 1.5-degree goal that they had embraced. Instead, officials are pinning their hopes of limiting warming to about 1.8 degrees Celsius (3.2 degrees Fahrenheit) and then somehow pulling enough carbon dioxide out of the air to lower temperatures back down to 1.5 degrees. The world is falling "dangerously short" of even those goals, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said, "but we have the tools to change course and pull back from the brink." Drastically cutting global carbon emissions—by 18% by 2030 and 69% by 2040—"is the only way that we can get back to a semblance of a reality that is still largely manageable without major impacts and therefore that makes every sense," said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen. "The report's message is clear," said climate scientist Adelle Thomas, vice chair of a United Nations scientific assessment on climate impacts. She wasn't part of this study. "We know what needs to be done. We have the tools to do it. And delay only makes the challenge more dangerous and more expensive for all." Report lead author Anne Olhoff, director of UNEP Copenhagen Climate Centre, said the U.S. policy change will likely add one-tenth of a degree Celsius (nearly two-tenths of a degree Fahrenheit) to global temperatures by the end of the century. "This report shows that America's retreat isn't just a political embarrassment. It has real consequences for the planet and for millions of people around the world," said Mohamed Adow, director of Power Shift Africa, a climate organization. "An extra tenth of a degree might sound insignificant, but in climate terms it is enormous. It means more dangerous heat waves, more destructive floods, more failed harvests and more lives lost. For vulnerable communities in Africa, already living on the front lines of the climate crisis, every fraction of a degree matters. These are not abstract numbers. They are human lives." Hare said that extra one-tenth of a degree pushes an additional 140 million people "into dangerously hot conditions" and increases the odds of the collapse of the Amazon rainforest or ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. It also would shave about $1.2 trillion from the global economy, said University of Pennsylvania climate scientist Michael Mann. And the U.S. effect is probably even bigger than what the United Nations calculates because if the world's largest historical climate polluter doesn't do much to fight global warming, other nations ease off in their efforts too.

UN climate panel head wants swift end to deadlock over key scientific report - The world's top climate scientists will reconvene at the earliest opportunity, the panel's chair said on Monday, after member states failed to agree when to release its crucial new findings on global heating. The IPCC, a United Nations body, is the global authority on climate science. Its reports bring together the latest knowledge on climate change, its causes, potential impacts and options for responding. They are the key reference point for international agreements on how to tackle the climate crisis, are used by governments to develop national climate policies and have been quoted in international court rulings. The IPCC suspended its latest negotiations late on Friday after a week of tough talks in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa. Many of the IPCC's nearly 200 member countries want its next major report out in time for a crucial United Nations climate summit in 2028. That summit is due to take stock of the world's progress so far in cutting planet-heating greenhouse gas emissions and is a key decision-making point. But some IPCC members—including Saudi Arabia, India and China—have argued that more time is needed to incorporate science and data from developing nations and have said the new report should be delayed until 2029. "Reaching consensus on the schedule for our upcoming IPCC reports is vital," IPCC chair Jim Skea said on Monday. "Our reports... help communicate the scale of climate risks and the urgency of mitigation, adaptation and international cooperation." Skea said that because the Addis Ababa meeting ran past the closing time, many countries—notably smaller nations most vulnerable to climate change—had to leave. He said it was essential for all countries in the IPCC to be able fully to participate in the negotiations to ensure the body's assessments on the state of the planet were "robust, representative and responsive to the needs of all countries." The IPCC, set up in 1988, knits together assessments from thousands of climate scientists who work voluntarily to compile its mammoth reports. They are normally released every five to seven years. The most recent came out in 2021. Skea said the meeting in Addis Ababa had agreed on many issues, including on artificial intelligence. But member governments had not yet reached consensus on a timeline for completing the next report "and the IPCC budget that will support our work." "I will reconvene this plenary session at the earliest opportunity so the panel can effectively conclude its business," he said. Some 117 scientists working on the new report signed an open letter saying: "Our message to governments and to the world is simple: we will keep working." The world's response to "the urgency of the climate crisis" must be guided by the best available evidence, said the letter, seen by AFP. "An assessment that arrives after the decisions it is meant to inform cannot serve its purpose," it insisted. "The second Global Stocktake in 2028 is such a decision point—and the world should not have to face it without the IPCC's latest assessment."

About 2% of natural gas supplied to a Midwest city leaks into the atmosphere  -Most natural gas leakage in Indianapolis likely originates from homes and other buildings, not exterior pipelines and large-scale distribution infrastructure that deliver the fossil fuel, according to Penn State researchers who assessed nearly a decade of data. Credit: Photographs in the Carol M. Highsmith Archive, Library of Congress, Prints and Photographs Division Most natural gas leakage in Indianapolis likely originates from homes and other buildings, not exterior pipelines and large-scale distribution infrastructure that deliver the fossil fuel, according to Penn State researchers who assessed nearly a decade of data.Their observations could signal similar emissions patterns across U.S. cities and shape mitigation strategies, members of the team said. They evaluated continuous measurements of methane, the main component of natural gas, across the Midwest city to estimate emissions from natural gas distribution.The analysis relied on a network of monitoring devices affixed to tall towers that informed one of the world's most detailed records of urban methane, the team wrote recently in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. Its replicable approach offers cities a reliable way to identify and measure emissions of methane—the second-most impactful greenhouse gas generated by humans—and to inform public policy on climate, said the researchers in the College of Earth and Mineral Sciences. They estimated about 2% of all natural gas piped into Indianapolis is eventually leaked. Over 100 years, methane has 28 times greater impact than carbon dioxide in trapping radiation, according to data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and cited by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency."Two percent leakage is massive from a climate standpoint," said lead author Zachary Barkley, an associate research professor in the Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science. He explained that the estimate represents a significant volume of uncounted emissions and outpaces an EPA estimate of such leakage nationally. "Our findings add to indicators that more methane than imagined may be escaping into the atmosphere from U.S. cities, even cities with relatively modern distribution systems like Indianapolis."The research paper emerged from a roughly 15-year collaboration among the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), Penn State and other partners including the University of Maryland. Starting in 2011, NIST supported the installation of the extensive monitoring network in Indianapolis to quantify greenhouse gas emissions in an urban environment. Until its wind-down in 2025, the network of up to 12 tower-based instruments documented trace gases including carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide and methane at heights up to 136 meters, or nearly 450 feet.  In part by incorporating aircraft- and ground-based measurements in their analysis, researchers determined the consistency and reliability of tower-based readings over extended periods, the team wrote. The qualities are vital in identifying long-term patterns. "We found it really doesn't take much to monitor emissions effectively," Barkley said. "Sometimes all you need is a few good, solid instruments and measurement systems downwind of a city, and you can really figure out what's going on." The researchers determined that the city released an average of 3.4 metric tons of methane per hour, nearly half of that coming from a landfill known as the South Side Landfill—the single largest source of methane emissions in the area. Methane emissions were higher by 13% during the winter, but seasonal variations were less pronounced than those recorded in Los Angeles and the D.C. region in other studies during the past decade, according to the paper.Results also suggested relative year-to-year consistency in Indianapolis' overall methane emissions, despite wide variations in calculations that the EPA used to assess the landfill emissions through 2023, Barkley said. EPA figures are available through a data portal tracking greenhouse gas emissions. While cities in the Northeast tend to have older, more leak-prone exterior gas lines, researchers expected less leakage in Indianapolis because of its more modern, plastic transmission lines. But their discovery of what they called "an ambient plume of methane everywhere in Indianapolis" suggests leaks from inside buildings, in sources such as gas-fired furnaces and interior gas pipes, Barkley said."We know where the emissions are. Public policy can reduce them," he said, pointing to incentives for technologies such as heat pumps.

PurposeEnergy Commissions Ohio Biogas Facility Worth More Than $40 Million -- PurposeEnergy, a company that designs, builds, owns and operates industrial anaerobic digestion infrastructure, has announced the commissioning of its industrial food waste and wastewater pre-treatment facility in Minster, Ohio. The site converts wastewater and high-strength organic residuals piped directly from Danone USA's largest U.S. yogurt manufacturing plant, as well as from other regional food and beverage producers. It produces renewable biogas, water treated to municipal discharge standards and nutrient-rich soil amendments.Located on Columbia Drive in the Route 66 Industrial Park, the facility represents an investment of more than $40 million, according to PurposeEnergy. It is the company's first project with Danone. The gas market is also drawing infrastructure projects abroad, such as Senegal seeking investors for three segments of its gas pipeline network, or Medco Energi entering four Eni gas blocks offshore Indonesia. Designed to process up to 250,000 gallons per day, the project is expected to produce about 50,000 MMBtu (million British thermal units) of renewable biogas per year at full operation. The biogas is piped to a dedicated boiler at Danone's Minster plant, where it displaces conventional natural gas. Based on standard combustion emission factors from the EPA (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency) and the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration), PurposeEnergy puts this effect at approximately 3,200 U.S. tons of CO2e displaced per year.  For the Village of Minster, the project reduces the load on municipal infrastructure. Water leaving the facility is treated well above the village's discharge standards, with surplus nutrients and dissolved solids removed, before it reaches the municipal wastewater treatment works. PurposeEnergy also estimates that piping residuals directly from Danone's Minster plant to the site avoids about 720 U.S. tons of CO2e per year, compared with the previous off-site handling route.

Water Needs Could Constrain Texas Buildout of Hydrogen and CCS: IEEFA Report | RBN Energy -Texas has plenty of the ingredients needed to support a major buildout of hydrogen and carbon capture and storage (CCS), including abundant natural gas, extensive energy infrastructure and access to international markets, but another essential input — water — could prove harder to secure, according to a new report by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).The 2027 Texas State Water Plan projects that water demand will exceed supply by 16% in 2030, even if all recommended development projects are completed on schedule. But the plan does not account for significant new demand from recently announced hydrogen and CCS-dependent industrial projects. Commercial-scale production of blue hydrogen, green hydrogen and hydrogen derivatives such as ammonia and methanol requires billions of gallons of water. Direct air capture (DAC) using solvents is also water-intensive. Process and cooling water needs to be pure, so water would ideally come from an aquifer or other source that would put these proposed projects in direct competition with municipal, residential or agricultural uses. Statewide, the planned hydrogen and CCS-dependent projects most likely to be completed could require an additional 57,000 acre-feet (18.6 billion gallons) of water per year, the report said. There are an additional 49,000 acre-feet (15.9 billion gallons) of water associated with projects that are in early phases of development or on hold with the possibility of resumption. If all 21 of those projects were built out to their proposed levels by 2040, there would be about 106,000 acre-feet (34.5 billion gallons) of demand that is not currently accounted for in the state’s 2027 water plan. Most of the clean energy projects in the development pipeline (see chart below) involve blue and green hydrogen, followed by DAC, green ammonia, blue methanol, blue ammonia and green methanol.For more on the water needs of hydrogen-related projects and how they are impacted by the warmer Texas climate, see this week’s Hydrogen Billboard.

Counties race to regulate groundwater as data centers and water demand surge --A couple of years ago, when Williamson County Commissioner Terry Cook tried to form a local groundwater conservation district, the overwhelming reaction was: "Don't tell me what to do with my land, my water." "We got nowhere," she said. Then came the data center boom. Now, as rural and suburban areas like Cook's see an explosion of interest from developers of the massive computing centers, many are scrambling to form the voter-approved districts, which manage aquifers and issue permits for groundwater withdrawals. Groundwater supplies the state with half of its water, and nearly all drinking water in rural Texas comes from below ground. But in areas without groundwater conservation districts, or GCDs, landowners are free to pump without limits or disclosure. That lack of oversight may be a draw for some data center developers. Nearly a quarter of the 630 data centers planned, under construction or operating in Texas are in areas without groundwater conservation districts, according to a Houston Chronicle analysis. The analysis found that nearly a hundred data centers operating or under construction are in areas not covered by GCDs. An additional 61 data centers are planned in these areas, as of October 15. Communities across the state are now rushing to create these districts in order to have some control over groundwater. "There's been a huge increase in interest," said state Rep. Cody Harris, a Palestine Republican and the chairman of the committee that oversees groundwater regulation. There are 98 groundwater conservation districts in Texas, covering 70% of the state. Adam Foster, the executive director of the Texas Alliance of Groundwater Districts, counted at least 10 active efforts to form new districts across the state, including a proposed district spanning 17 counties in northeast Texas. Foster said the growth of data centers across Texas has been the "main driver" of efforts to form new GCDs, as communities worry the large computing centers will drain their aquifers. But it's hard to know how much groundwater the projects plan to use. This summer, Harris oversaw a contentious committee hearing during which lawmakers lambasted data center operators for ignoring requests by state agencies to answer questions about how much water they use and where it comes from. Unless companies respond to that survey, there's no way to know how much groundwater data centers are consuming. Even within GCDs, developers can purchase water directly from a municipality without filing a permit. Groundwater in Texas is governed by a 120-year-old doctrine known as rule of capture that gives landowners an almost absolute right to pump groundwater below their property, no matter how that pumping impacts their neighbors. But GCDs have some power to step in. These districts model the amount of available water in an aquifer over the coming 50 years and issue permits for large users. New districts have to be approved by voters and are usually first formed through legislation. The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality can also create districts in response to community petitions or by designating an area as a priority for groundwater management. The state's newest groundwater district is likely to be in East Texas' Houston County. Last year, locals there grew alarmed when they heard about a plan by Kyle Bass, a Dallas businessman, to drill dozens of wells and pump nearly all of the area's available groundwater for export to areas "south of Waco and… north of Dallas-Fort Worth." Bass hasn't said what he plans to do with the water, and he hasn't said it's for data centers. Hundreds of people showed up to a meeting last year of the Neches and Trinity Valleys Groundwater Conservation District to protest Bass' permit application. But that district only covers Anderson and Henderson Counties. In Houston County, landowners had nowhere to turn. Under the rule of capture, Bass could pump as much water as he wanted. "That project triggered ... concern is an understatement," said Amber Stelly, the general manager of the Consolidated Water Supply Corporation, a utility that provides water to unincorporated Houston County. County commissioners quickly convened a committee to investigate forming a groundwater district, and earlier this year, they petitioned TCEQ for its creation. The state agency considered the petition in a public hearing last month, but has yet to rule. "In the past, a groundwater district was opposed, and the very people that opposed it then are very much in favor of it now," said Jim Lovell, Houston's county judge. Cook wasn't aware of an active effort in Williamson County to form a GCD. The suburban county north of Austin sits mainly over the Trinity aquifer, a prolific groundwater source that extends through Central Texas and supplies many cities along the I-35 corridor. There are eight data centers planned in the booming county, with three already operating and one under construction. In northeast Texas, 17 counties have banded together to create one massive groundwater conservation district. Gregg County judge Bill Stoudt said the effort began after Harris approached him and other local leaders, warning that East Texas' abundant water supplies were under threat. The effort was catalyzed by Bass' project, Stoudt said, but local officials are concerned about export projects more generally. The 2026 regional water plan for the Dallas area identifies four East Texas counties for future water supply, noting that in areas without a GCD, "there are no pumping regulations or limitations." According to the Chronicle's analysis, 63 facilities are planned or operating in Dallas County, which isn't covered by a GCD. Most of the water used by North Texas cities comes from rivers and reservoirs, but groundwater from the Trinity aquifer supplies many rural communities in the county. Earlier this year, Foster told lawmakers that he surveyed groundwater district managers to understand their concerns around data centers. Of those that responded, 84% said they had either already received inquiries from data center developers, had an active permit application for a facility or expected to get one soon. Several districts noted that the water required for power plants to generate electricity for data centers was substantial and "could create a huge issue" if not accounted for, Foster said.

Ohio said private developers couldn’t take your land. Then came the data centers: Leila Atassi - cleveland.com  — For a while in the mid-2000s, one of the most stubborn houses in Ohio stood in a fenced, treeless field in Norwood, with nothing left around it. Carl and Joy Gamble had bought the home in 1969 and raised two children there. When a developer set his sights on their Cincinnati-area neighborhood for an upscale shopping and office complex, the city agreed to use eminent domain to clear the way. Their neighbors sold, and their houses came down. The Gambles refused, and in February 2005 they were forced out anyway, moving in with their grown daughter in Kentucky while their case worked its way through the courts. Joy Gamble described what she’d learned about property in America: once people with money “decide they want what you have, you don’t own it.” In July 2006, the Ohio Supreme Court sided with the Gambles, ruling that economic benefit alone cannot justify taking someone’s home. They never moved back. Illness had caught up with them both, and the following spring they sold the house to the developer. Their fight still produced something lasting. A year later, Ohio lawmakers rewrote the state’s eminent domain law to bar takings for “private commercial enterprise, economic development, or solely for the purpose of increasing public revenue.” It was a promise to everyone in Ohio who owns a home, a farm or a storefront: The state would not take what’s yours just because someone richer had a more profitable use for it. That promise now has a gap wide enough to run a high-voltage line through. The 2007 law carved out an exception for utilities. Their projects are “presumed to be public uses,” and they can take land that isn’t blighted. That made sense at the time. Transmission lines carry power to hospitals, schools, factories and homes, and a single holdout shouldn’t be able to stall the grid for an entire region. Former state Rep. Bill Seitz, who helped write the law, said those upgrades serve “a public purpose, no question about it.” For the grid of 2007, he was right. The lawmakers who wrote that exception could not have imagined the PORTS Technology Campus in Piketon. SoftBank’s planned AI data center, billed as the largest in the world, could need 10 gigawatts, more electricity than every household in Ohio combined, cleveland.com’s Anna Staver reported last week. Ordinary distribution lines can’t carry that load, so Ohio Power is developing three new transmission lines to feed it, including one through Ross County, where Lauren Dill Morton’s family has farmed the same land for more than 200 years. She won’t sell, and under current law she may not get a choice. “I don’t feel like it’s a public necessity,” Morton told Staver. “It’s a necessity for that data center, maybe.” Ohio Power says SoftBank has committed to cover the cost of the lines. That’s meant to reassure ratepayers, and perhaps it should. But paying for a transmission line doesn’t automatically make it a public necessity. A line built for a private customer might also strengthen the broader grid. The question is whether it would be needed without that customer. If one developer drives the demand, pays the bill and consumes the power, why should a landowner be forced to surrender property to make the deal work? Ohio law gives utilities another advantage: Their projects are both presumed to serve the public and presumed necessary. When state regulators approve the specific property rights a utility wants to take, Ohio law can make the presumption of necessity impossible for landowners to challenge. A 2022 Ohio Supreme Court case revealed just how much leverage utilities have. An Ohio Power representative testified that the company generally asks landowners for more rights than it needs, backing down only when someone challenges it in court. The justices in that case ruled that courts must scrutinize those demands. But that still leaves landowners with a lousy choice: Hire a lawyer to fight a utility company, or sign away whatever rights it demands. Rep. Tristan Rader, a Lakewood Democrat, wants lawmakers to revisit eminent domain as they study data centers. But the Ohio Business Roundtable has floated a proposal to expand utilities’ “quick-take” powers, allowing them to seize land before owners finish fighting over compensation. Lawmakers specifically withheld that power from utilities in 2007. Ohio has already handed data centers generous tax breaks and allowed energy projects serving them to advance with little local say. Expanding eminent domain would take that deference a dangerous step further, forcing property owners to surrender their land for infrastructure built largely to benefit private developers. Ohio lawmakers have already had a chance to close that loophole. They passed it up. In 2023, Republican lawmakers introduced House Bill 64, backed by the Ohio Farm Bureau, to eliminate the automatic presumption of necessity and force condemning agencies to prove their case. It stalled, and later versions dropped those protections. Lawmakers should revive them and add one test for lines serving a single private development: Would the public need this line if the development didn’t exist? If the answer is yes, and the utility can prove it with clear and convincing evidence, eminent domain remains an option. If not, the developer should have to negotiate with willing sellers, like any other private business. That rule wouldn’t stop Ohio from competing for data centers. It would simply require the companies profiting from them to negotiate with the people whose land they want. Lawmakers should close this gap now — while the lines still exist only on paper — because we know what happens when the law arrives late. The Gambles won their case and still lost their home.

Ohio must not make it easier to seize your property for data centers, other projects | Opinion - Ohio has lost nearly a million acres of farmland in the last 20 years. That's more than the combined square mileage of Franklin and Licking counties. That's farmland that can no longer feed, fuel and clothe us. And if some groups prevail, it will be even easier to take land from private landowners. Private property owners are free to make the choice to sell their land. What property owners don't get to choose, however, is when their land is taken from them by the government or a public utility through eminent domain. It's not just the development that changes the character of the landscape; it's often all the things that come with or are needed by that development that further exacerbate the loss of farmland and unwillingly force a taking of private property. It's the pipeline that cuts through the middle of a cornfield, reducing productivity and fertility for decades to come. It's the transmission line that now hangs over your backyard. It's the subsurface drainage that gets destroyed and results in flooded fields, yards and roadways with no path to resolution. Even more disruptive is the strain eminent domain puts on these landowners. People who have paid a mortgage and taxes year after year are now spending thousands on lawyers just to make sure they keep as much of their own land as possible and ensure they get paid fairly for it. Our eminent domain process in Ohio is trying for landowners, but it is ultimately important that there is a process. When the government or a utility wants to take your land, they are going to go before a judge and prove they absolutely need that land to serve the public. Only after that proof is provided and a jury of citizens determines how much that landowner should be paid can that land be transferred away. Those are standards and a process that we as a society can agree on and respect – even if we don't like the loss of land. But now, those entities want to take property without any process or judicial approval. Ohio law allows that process to be bypassed in certain circumstances called "quick take," including in times of war, public emergency and the making and repair of free public roadways. In those circumstances, the property can be taken immediately upon a deposit without going through the process first. It's easy to see why the Ohio Constitution created this very limited situation – if there is true peril, we want the government to be able to take property as needed to protect people and our nation, and there is generally little doubt that public roadways are for a public use. Even though the Constitution has limited this quick-take process, there are groups that want to expand it beyond these limits, making it easier and quicker to take property without the full judicial process and without a landowner getting their day in court. They use words like "streamline" or "efficiency," but the truth is they want to take private property without any process. These groups are frustrated that landowners have held them to the constitutional standards of necessity and public use, so now they want to change the game and eliminate the process altogether. They alone want to decide what they should get to take from landowners. Ohio Farm Bureau has spent years advocating for private property owners' rights and fair treatment in the eminent domain process. While farmers are our core members, the protections that have been secured through this advocacy protect all Ohioans – from row-crop farmers to homeowners to businesses. While progress is important, it cannot come at the expense of reducing Ohioans' private property rights through an expansion of the quick-take power or reduction of eminent domain protections.We at Ohio Farm Bureau will continue to represent not just the concerns of our members, but all property owners in this state to ensure they will be able to keep the land and homes they hold dear. Adam Sharp has served as executive vice president of Ohio Farm Bureau since 2016 and is a fourth-generation farmer who farms alongside his brothers in Fairfield County. In his role, Sharp leads the statewide organization in its mission to work together for Ohio farmers to advance agriculture and strengthen our communities.

Data center surge driving up electric costs across Ohio, consumer advocate warns -— Maureen Willis said rising utility costs — and additional requested hikes — are creating an “affordability crisis” for Ohio residents. Willis, the director of the Ohio Consumers’ Council, urged Mansfield City Council members on Tuesday evening to take action against a proposed three-year series of rate hikes requested by FirstEnergy. During a 30-minute presentation in council’s economic development committee, Willis detailed the impact of FirstEnergy subsidiary Ohio Edison’s pending multi-year rate application.Under the three-year proposal filed with the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio in May 2026, Ohio Edison customers would see their bills increase by an average of $4.26 per month starting in 2027, eventually reaching an additional $12.78 per month by 2029.“Consumers are struggling to pay their bills … but unlike anything we’ve seen before. We call it an affordability crisis,” said Willis, who serves as the legal director for the OCC, appointed in 2023.Nothing Makes a Local Partner Happier than Hearing "I Saw Your Ad on Richland Source!"She spent eight years as the OCC senior counsel before being elevated and has spent more than 27 years of her career representing residential utility consumers. The OCC is funded by assessments on investor-owned utility companies in Ohio, rather than through state tax dollars.Ohio Edison is a local electric distribution utility owned by FirstEnergy. FirstEnergy is the parent holding corporation, while Ohio Edison is the specific brand and operating company that delivers power, maintains lines and sends bills to customers in northern and central Ohio.Ohio Edison serves as the exclusive electric distribution utility for virtually 100% of residential and commercial properties within the city of Mansfield.Willis cited two primary catalysts behind rising utility costs across the state: corporate rate-of-return targets (i.e. profits) set by state regulators and massive infrastructure investments needed to support the regional grid.She said a major factor driving grid strain and wholesale capacity prices is the rapid, unprecedented expansion of data centers across Ohio, particularly in central regions like Franklin County.Above is a timeline of events related to a three-year series of rate hikes proposed by FirstEnergy. (OCC graphic)Because wholesale electricity prices are set across a 13-state regional transmission grid managed by PJM Interconnection, price spikes caused by high demand affect consumers statewide.  “Much of the increases in energy and capacity are being caused because there’s an explosive amount of demand primarily coming from data centers and the supply can’t keep up with the demand,” Willis said.“If you took economics like I did in college, you know that if you have increased demand and your supply is stagnant or declining, prices are going to go up, and that’s exactly what’s happening.

Ohio data center expansion linked to projected $16 billion energy cost - cleveland.com  — A new study estimates that data-center growth could add $16 billion in electricity costs across Ohio from 2027 through 2034.That figure is not a forecast of $16 billion being added directly to household and business electric bills. It is a modeled statewide estimate built from a national study, Ohio electricity-sales data and assumptions about how future costs could grow.These are five takeaways from the original article, which examined how Scioto Analysis produced the estimate and what its limitations are.

• 1. Scioto did not run an Ohio-specific grid model.  Scioto Analysis relied on a national study examining how additional demand from data centers and cryptocurrency mining could affect electricity-system costs.That study produced several scenarios, ranging from a 5.9% increase in average electricity costs under lower demand to 29% under higher demand. Scioto selected the middle scenario: 16%.
• 2. The 16% figure is an assumption, not a predicted Ohio retail-rate increase. The national study’s figures represent modeled energy costs, not what Ohio utilities would necessarily charge customers. Retail electric bills also can include transmission, distribution and other charges.Scioto used the 16% figure as an input for its Ohio analysis, not as a finding that customer bills will rise 16%.
• 3. Ohio electricity-sales data produced the $16 billion estimate. Scioto applied the national study’s 16% estimate to statewide electricity-sales information from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Using that approach, it projected $16 billion in additional electricity-price costs under existing policies from 2027 through 2034.The analysis does not establish how much of that amount would fall on households compared with businesses or other customers.
• 4. Half of the eight-year projection extends beyond the national study.The national research modeled electricity-system conditions through 2030.Scioto extended its Ohio projection through 2034 by assuming the 16% increase developed at a constant annual pace and continued growing at that pace for four additional years.Those final four years were not modeled in the national study, making them an additional assumption in Scioto’s calculation.
• 5. The published report does not provide a fully reproducible calculation. Scioto disclosed its main assumptions, including the 16% estimate, Ohio retail-sales data and the extension through 2034.

Cleveland data center moratorium would extend through January --- Cleveland would continue blocking new standalone data centers and expansions of existing ones while city officials develop rules for an industry that could put significant demands on the city’s utility infrastructure. The Cleveland Planning Commission on Friday approved an ordinance that would extend the city’s temporary data center moratorium through Jan. 29, unless new regulations take effect sooner. The moratorium prevents the city from reviewing or issuing use, building, and zoning permits, certificates of occupancy and other licenses or permits for the expansion of an existing standalone data center or establishment of a data center as the principal use in a standalone facility or building. It also applies to licenses and permits issued by the Department of Public Utilities. The extension comes as City Council and the administration continue working on regulations after three public hearings in which residents raised concerns about electricity and water use, environmental effects, noise, neighborhood impacts and who would pay for infrastructure needed to serve large facilities. The current moratorium took effect July 20 and is set to expire Tuesday. The ordinance says more time is needed to develop policies that are appropriate for Cleveland and Northeast Ohio and can be implemented effectively. Council created a Data Center Working Group to help with that work. The group includes data center experts, utility representatives, council staff, business and nonprofit leaders, residents, and city officials from the departments of Public Utilities, Law, City Planning, Sustainability and Health. Council and administration officials also have been studying data center regulations in other parts of Ohio and the country and working on possible Cleveland regulations. Much of the public discussion has focused on large, hyperscale data centers, which can reach 1 million square feet and support massive computing operations, including artificial intelligence and cloud computing. Cleveland currently has no hyperscale, standalone data centers. Residents have questioned whether such facilities could strain Cleveland Public Power or increase electric bills, how much water they could consume and what Cleveland residents would receive in return. The city already requires large customers seeking to connect to Cleveland Public Power to pay for necessary assessments and any required interconnection or system upgrades, according to Councilman Brian Kazy, who chairs council’s Utilities Committee and has led the data center discussions. The ordinance says the additional time is needed so council and the administration can continue considering regulations or prohibitions on data centers and review city ordinances for their impact on utility infrastructure. The ordinance now goes to City Council’s Finance, Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion Committee, as well as the Utilities and Development, Planning and Sustainability committees.

Cincinnati officials holding public meeting about data center zoning study. How you can take part - — City officials want to hear from you about the future of data centers in Cincinnati. The Department of City Planning and Engagement is hosting an in-person public meeting about the city's ongoing data center zoning study. The meeting is at the Walnut Hills Public Library branch from 6-8 p.m. Officials will give an update on the progress of the study, then take feedback and questions. If you're interested in attending Monday night, you're asked to register on the city's website ahead of time, because there is limited space. The city of Cincinnati currently has a temporary moratorium in place on data center projects.

Findlay's data center rules near completion — Findlay's proposed data center zoning regulations may be nearing completion as city officials continue refining rules for the I-3 Industrial District. Findlay City Council's Planning & Zoning Committee is expected to review the latest version at a meeting scheduled for 1 p.m. Monday at the Findlay Municipal Building, 318 Dorney Plaza. All committee meetings are open to the public and the meeting will be livestreamed on the city's YouTube channel: Findlay Ohio. The city remains under a moratorium on data centers through April, or until council approves zoning. Both the City Planning Commission and the committee advanced new recommendations earlier this month. Matt Cordonnier, director of the Hancock Regional Planning Commission, said the city has worked on the regulations since spring and incorporated several resident suggestions into successive drafts. New recommendations from the Planning Commission are aimed at strengthening noise protections, increasing transparency and expanding compliance monitoring. Among the changes are expanded noise-testing requirements that would allow sound measurements at homes separated from a data center by streets or other parcels, rather than limiting testing to immediately adjacent properties. Additional language would require evaluation of low-frequency and tonal noise, including humming, droning and other mechanical sounds that residents near data centers in other communities have cited as concerns. The proposal also would require annual compliance reports documenting electricity use, water use, wastewater discharges, generator operations and compliance with mitigation measures. Project applications, technical studies, approved site plans and compliance reports would be posted on a publicly accessible city webpage. Earlier this month, the Planning & Zoning Committee endorsed two additional changes. Committee members voted to recommend a decommissioning requirement and a rule that would require emergency backup generators to be enclosed within buildings. DeLong also continued to argue that the city should delay adopting the regulations while the moratorium remains in effect to allow for additional changes as more information becomes known.

Valor Energy acquires computing site in Youngstown, Ohio -- Valor Energy has acquired a data center site in Ohio. The Nasdaq-listed firm announced that it has entered into an agreement to acquire all of the outstanding equity interests of the company that holds an 18MW operational computing center in Youngstown, Ohio, for $3.6 million. The site is located at 1911 Logan Avenue, Youngstown, Mahoning County, some 50 miles east of Akron and 75 miles (120km) northwest of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. The existing computing center is complete and totals approximately 30,890 sq ft (2,870 sqm) with 18MW of apparent power capacity under an existing 23kV utility interconnection with Ohio Edison. Valor aims to convert the site into an AI data center, which the company said will require additional design, construction, equipment, and permitting work. “This agreement is an important step in Valor Energy’s AI data center strategy,” said Dave Nichols, strategic advisor to Valor Energy Inc. “The Youngstown site includes 18 megavolt-amperes of power capacity that we believe is already approved and energized, which can be difficult to secure in this industry. We believe this reduces, though does not eliminate, the time needed to pursue AI computing capacity at the site, subject to completion of the acquisition and further development work.” Full details of the acquired facility were not shared. The site is within a complex of industrial buildings previously occupied by Commercial Metal Forming and Parker Hannifin Corporation. Formerly known as Senmiao Technology, Valor Energy previously operated automobile transaction and related services businesses and is now looking to move into digital infrastructure. Founded in 2018, Senmiao has traditionally provided automobile transaction and related services, including automobile sales, financing, and leasing in China. It previously owned the XXTX ride-hailing platform in China, but sold the unit in 2024. The company has partnered with Elio Energy and Emergence Power on a planned data center project in Duchesne County, Utah, that could total more than 1.2GW at full build-out. The group is targeting an initial 100MW powered by gas, solar, and battery storage.

Data center could be coming to Youngstown (WKBN) – Valor Energy Inc. has entered into an agreement to acquire a computing center on Logan Avenue, according to a press release. “The Youngstown Project” includes a facility at 1911 Logan Avenue that is approximately 30,000 square feet, an estimated 18 megavoltamperes (MVA) of power capacity under an existing 23kV utility interconnection with Ohio Edison, the release from the company says. Valor Energy Inc. has specialized in automobile services before transitioning into AI and energy. According to the Youngstown-Warren Regional Chamber, the facility had been used as a bitcoin mining facility. Fourth-generation business owner creates space for wellness, beauty businesses The conversion of the site into an AI data center will require additional design, construction, equipment and permitting work, but Valor Energy says that, by acquiring an operating facility as opposed to undeveloped land, the construction process will be more efficient. The computing center was purchased for $3.6 million, subject to adjustment as provided in the agreement. “This agreement is an important step in Valor Energy’s AI data center strategy,” said Dave Nichols, strategic advisor to Valor Energy Inc. “The Youngstown site includes 18 megavolt-amperes of power capacity that we believe is already approved and energized, which can be difficult to secure in this industry. We believe this reduces, though does not eliminate, the time needed to pursue AI computing capacity at the site, subject to completion of the acquisition and further development work.” The data center will serve “AI and high-performance computing workloads.” Youngstown-Warren Regional Chamber CEO Guy Coviello said he believes this project could be good for economic development in the city, though he acknowledged that there are still permits needed for the project to go forward. “We are familiar with the current operation there, which is pretty small, and the potential for something larger, and we want to facilitate a successful economic development transition here,” Coviello said. “They’ve been pretty prominent in the automotive space. We see that they’re pivoting into digital AI, and so we would definitely welcome a company like that into our community.” The property sits about a block from homes. The city’s spokesman released the following statement: “As this was a transaction between two private parties, we found about this like everyone one – through their press release. As noted in their press release, they will have to go through the zoning and permitting process. Should this sale occur, the City will use every legal tool we have to ensure our residents and community interests are protected.” Coviello says he doesn’t expect the project to affect nearby residents. “If you look at this particular site, it’s been heavy industry for decades and decades, and when you’re thinking about the type of operation, very clean, very quiet. I don’t think anybody would even know it’s there,” Coviello said. Coviello says the business operator of “The Youngstown Project” does not own the land, so if Valor does take over the site, the property owner won’t change. Valor has only just made the agreement to acquire the site, and it’s not official yet. Over the next 30 days, Valor will make sure the property checks all the right boxes, and if it does, the sale will close 90 days from now, and Valor will move on to getting permitting and zoning approvals.

Area community to vote on Data Center ban as Amazon eyes farmland for project – WHIO – Dayton TV news video - An area community will be voting on a ban on Data Centers next month as Amazon is eyeing nearby farmland for a project.

Urbana City Council votes to fight data center lawsuit - (WDTN) – For months, the city of Urbana has been facing a lawsuit from a company trying to put a data center in their town, and tonight, the city council was set to decide what the next move should be. Urbana’s city council has been faced with two options: either settle a lawsuit or keep on fighting. After much deliberation, the council chose to continue to fight the lawsuit in hopes that a data center won’t be coming to town. “I’ve never in my life seen a crowd more united to say, ‘Don’t do this,’” said an Urbana resident. The Urbana City Council was given the option to settle a lawsuit with Thor Equities, the company wanting to put a data center in the city. If they settled, they would avoid paying about $115 million in damages and a data center would be placed directly across the street from the town’s middle and high school. Or, it could say no to the settlement, meaning it would keep fighting in the lawsuit to possibly come out without a data center. “Our city needs you to vote no deal,” said an Urbana resident. Throughout the night, many in the room held “No Deal” signs, and some questioned what the financial ramifications would be if the town loses the fight. Amongst the tension, most in the room said they still wanted answers about how the city got to this point. Urbana City Council’s next meeting will be on Nov. 3, falling on the same day voters will choose whether or not to ban data centers in Champaign County.

'Pitchfork Populism' Over Data Centers Rattles Ohio's U.S. Senate Race —A proposal for a large data center has upended politics in this Republican-leaning suburb of Columbus. That could spell trouble for U.S. Sen. Jon Husted, a longtime fixture in state Republican politics who was appointed to his seat in 2025 after former Sen. J.D. Vance became vice president. Husted is running against Sherrod Brown, a Democrat who served three terms in the Senate before losing his seat two years ago. In Sunbury, the Senate race is on the same ballot as a referendum that would ban large data centers. Supporters of the measure say they don’t trust either party to stand up to the influence of technology companies, but they have less faith in Republicans. “I’m very disappointed in both parties’ approach to my problem,” said Larry Thode, a Sunbury-area resident who voted Republican most of his life and whose property is next to a planned Amazon Web Services data center. Thode blames Republicans more than Democrats because they’re the ones in power, he said. The party has controlled Ohio’s government for more than a decade, with Husted serving as lieutenant governor from 2019 to 2025. Republicans also control the federal government, with President Donald Trump supporting development of AI data centers. Larry Thode, who lives near Sunbury, is an opponent of data center development. He has long voted Republican, but says he distrusts his party when it comes to holding tech companies accountable. Alicia Doty, Thode’s neighbor, shares this frustration. She has mainly voted for Democrats in the past, but feels like the party needs to be clearer in opposing large data centers. That said, her concerns about Democrats are small compared to her disappointment that Republicans welcomed development. Husted’s campaign has said he supports thoughtful data center planning, with protections for consumers and respect for local communities, but Doty remains unconvinced. “I don’t believe Jon Husted for a second,” she said. Sunbury, a city of about 9,000, sits near the northeast edge of Columbus’ suburbs, where housing subdivisions fade into farmland and woods. The city is in Delaware County, which has Ohio’s highest median household income and a history of supporting Republicans. Amazon Web Services is proposing to build a data center with electricity demand of several hundred megawatts in a farm field between Thode and Doty’s properties. Under the plan, Sunbury would annex the AWS land and allow it to be developed. Opponents gathered enough signatures to put a measure on the local ballot that would bar data centers with electricity demand of at least 25 megawatts. The backlash has been intense partially because Sunbury residents have watched how data centers transformed the farmland of New Albany, a city about 15 miles away. New Albany now has some of the densest concentration of data centers in the country. “Decimated” is how Doty describes the nearby city, and she wants to avoid the same fate. She noted the Sunbury proposal begins with one data center but planners have discussed building an industrial park south of her property that may attract additional data centers. Many communities across Ohio are pushing back on data centers and that opposition often overlaps with a distrust of politicians. “There’s this kind of pitchfork populism about data centers that has really emerged,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball from the University of Virginia Center for Politics. Brown has seized on the issue, while Husted is running in a party led by Trump, who supports data center companies and criticizes opponents of development. Trump has misread public opinion on data centers, responding to voter anger with what Kondik called “a tin ear.” The response marks a departure from Trump’s past knack for tapping into political undercurrents, Kondik said. Opposition to data centers is stronger in Ohio than other places. For example, 3 percent of Ohio voters in a recent New York Times/Siena poll said artificial intelligence and data centers were their top issue in the election, the most of any state with a competitive U.S. Senate race. In the same poll, Ohio voters said they trusted Democrats on the issue by 11 points, again the most of any state with a competitive Senate race. Husted has said he welcomes development if a community wants it and rules are in place to avoid harm to residents. But he has struggled to advance legislation, including a bill he co-sponsored to curb data centers’ impact on consumer electricity prices that failed to pass the Senate.“Let’s rise above the politics that often drag this place down and deliver for the American people and do our jobs,” Husted said on the Senate floor on Sept. 30, about the bill.The measure fell short of the 60 votes it needed to overcome a filibuster. Most Democrats opposed the plan, saying its requirements were not strong enough to do much good.

Sheriff reaches agreement about data center construction traffic -   Prompted by a traffic tie-up in Buckeystown several weeks ago, Sheriff Chuck Jenkins has said he reached a new agreement with the companies developing the data center campus near Adamstown to route construction traffic to the site through New Design Road. "Unless you live in Adamstown, Buckeystown, and you see the amount of truck traffic — hundreds, even maybe thousands of truck trips a day in and out of these construction sites — people don't have any idea how enormous this is," he said in an interview. Jenkins said that a few weeks ago, a data center construction truck with a permitted wide load tried to turn right from Buckeystown Pike onto Manor Woods Road. He said the truck took a long time to execute the turn, causing a significant traffic tie-up. The incident prompted him to request a meeting with three companies responsible for developing the campus. He said that on Oct. 2, he met with representatives from Catellus, which owns most of the campus land, and with Rowan and Aligned, which are building the data centers. The meeting also included Ace Solutions, a company that manages traffic for Rowan. Jenkins said he had met with the companies before, but this was the first time so many of the companies' representatives came together at once. Past meetings resulted in agreements for the companies to pay overtime hours for sheriff's deputies to continually monitor the area. He didn't have specific numbers, but said moving violations by construction vehicles have significantly decreased over the past year. At this most recent meeting, he said, the companies agreed to make truck traffic to their construction sites follow a specific route. The trucks are now supposed to travel south on Buckeystown Pike, turn right on English Muffin Way, then left on New Design Road, until they come to the four-way stop at Manor Woods Road. From there, they can either go straight to the campus entrance on New Design Road or turn right to access multiple campus entrances on Manor Woods Road. Nathaniel Brown, a spokesperson for Rowan, wrote in an email that the company takes concerns about traffic construction seriously. "Rowan and our construction partners work regularly with local officials, law enforcement, and nearby residents to monitor traffic patterns, ensure trucks follow approved routes, and hold contractors accountable to project requirements," he wrote. He wrote that he has confirmed that Rowan's construction team has implemented the strategies discussed with Jenkins. Representatives from Aligned and Catellus didn't respond to requests for comment on the agreement with Jenkins. The Frederick News-Post attempted to reach them by email on Thursday and on Oct. 5. Jenkins said it will be challenging for the companies to get all of the independently contracted drivers to follow the prescribed route. Many drivers use a GPS to navigate the area, he said, which generally won't take them down the correct route. There is also a problem, he said, specifically with truck drivers that make trips between the quarry on Buckeystown Pike and the data center campus. He said that when they come out of the quarry, they want to turn right onto Buckeystown Pike because that route saves them time and fuel compared to turning left and taking English Muffin to New Design. He said the companies have been "more than cooperative" in trying to work on solutions and he believes they will soon impose penalties on independently contracted haulers who don't follow the rules. "It's almost like an orchestra and we have to somehow get a handle on it," he said. "The thing is to get the information out about these defined routes ... and hopefully enforce this, and I think things can get better. And we've agreed, actually, to meet every 90 days to take a look at it." That defined route will put a lot of truck pressure on the intersection of New Design and Manor Woods roads, he said, "but what can you do about it?" Jenkins said he understands "that these independent truckers are hurting. Diesel fuel is $6 a gallon. Time is money. Miles wear and tear on the trucks. It's a tough place to be." On Thursday afternoon, The Frederick News-Post observed multiple trucks turn at Buckeystown Pike and Manor Woods Road within a 10-minute period. It wasn't clear if they were all affiliated with the data center campus. One of them drove onto the campus.

Upper Burrell Planners OK Data Center Rules 5-0; Gas Mandate Stays  - Marcellus Drilling News -  The Upper Burrell Township (Westmoreland County, PA) Planning Commission voted 5-0 Tuesday night to recommend the township’s data center ordinance, handing it to the three township supervisors. The supervisors hold a public hearing at 6 p.m. tonight (Oct. 22), followed by a special meeting to consider adopting it. They’re racing the clock: the township’s data center moratorium expires Nov. 2, just 11 days from now. Last month we told you the draft quietly requires every new data center to make its own around-the-clock (“baseload”) power, which in southwest Pennsylvania means natural gas. As best we can tell, that requirement survived.

NEPA Town Kills 1.6 GW Wildcat Ridge Data Center Campus, 7-0 Vote - Marcellus Drilling News - Another one bites the dust in northeastern Pennsylvania. On Wednesday night, Archbald Borough Council (Lackawanna County) voted 7-0 to deny a zoning request for the Wildcat Ridge Data Center Campus, a 14-building AI “hyperscale” project proposed for roughly 575 acres on the mountainside above Business Route 6. The campus would have needed 1.6 gigawatts (GW) of electricity, more than 3.3 million gallons of water per day in summer, and 588 diesel-powered backup generators. About 175-200 residents packed the borough building’s gym and erupted in cheers when the vote came down. The developer, Brooklyn-based Cornell Realty Management, isn’t talking, but just about everyone in the room expects an appeal to county court. Why should Marcellus folks care? Because 1.6 GW of new, around-the-clock electric demand is, in our neck of the woods, a gas demand story.

PA House Swaps Gas-Linked Tax Credits for Solar in Rewritten Bill  - Marcellus Drilling News - On Monday, the Pennsylvania Democrat-controlled House took a tax bill the Senate sent over in June, gutted it, and sent back something very different. The new version has a 2-cent-per-kilowatt-hour fee on big electricity users (read: data centers), a grab bag of “clean energy” tax credits from Gov. Shapiro’s wish list, and a gas-fired power plant credit so wrapped in strings it may never pay out a dime. The House vote was 193-10. The Republican-controlled Senate had two voting days on the calendar before the Nov. 3 election: yesterday and today. The Republican-controlled Senate left the bill in its Rules Committee on Tuesday and instead passed 17 other measures. Today is its last scheduled day of voting before the Nov. 3 election. We don’t see any signs they will take up this bill today, but one never knows.

DEP permit bids detail significant Mason County data center environmental impacts  Charleston Gazette - Documents recently filed with the West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection forecast significant environmental impacts from two planned data center projects in Mason County, where construction for one of them already has resulted in substantial pollution and erosion control failures adding to a groundswell of data center opposition rising in West Virginia and nationwide. Announced as state-certified last month by Gov. Patrick Morrisey, one of West Virginia’s most vocal supporters of data center growth, the projects are being developed by United Kingdom headquartered artificial intelligence infrastructure firm Nscale and Starwood Digital Ventures, a data center investment platform of Miami Beach, Florida-headquartered global real estate-focused private investment firm Starwood Capital Group. Upcoming DEP meetings this month on permits sought for the Nscale-planned project are poised to rouse opponents of the enterprise, which the company has billed as an effort toward one of the world’s largest artificial intelligence factories to meet global demand for computing capacity.The DEP has made a preliminary determination to approve an air quality permit for Monarch Cloud Campus LLC to build an off-grid electric power generation facility to support a data center campus just north of Point Pleasant at 30 Monarch Way, off Ohio River Road (W.Va. 62) near the former Mason County Airport. Monarch Cloud Campus submitted the permit application on April 20. The preliminary determination issued by DEP engineer Edward Andrews on Sept. 28 found that the proposed construction would meet emission limits and conditions in a draft permit and comply with all state and federal air quality rules. Monarch Cloud Campus, a Nscale affiliate, seeks to build and operate a 2.16-gigawatt off-grid electric power generator microgrid to support a data center campus. The facility would be configured as 12 individual power nodes with 72 2.5-megawatt, 3,513-horsepower generator sets to provide electric power and four power nodes supporting a data center hall, according to the DEP preliminary determination. Monarch expects a facility startup date of April 2027, according to the document. The campus is slated to have:

• Three data center halls for 864 natural gas-fired reciprocating internal combustion engines
• 12 diesel-fired emergency generator engines
• Six diesel-fired firewater pump engines
• Six natural gas-fired fuel gas heaters
• 18 ultra-low sulfur diesel storage tanks
• Associated sources of uncontrolled emissions

Each power node is to be configured with eight engine halls with nine engines in each hall. The preliminary description reports an Aug. 26 DEP site inspection of the site on the parcel comprised of about 2,300 acres, 1,100 of which have been dedicated to facility development. The DEP noted in the document that the Mason County Airport formerly occupied the parcel roughly 4 miles north of Point Pleasant before closing in the first quarter of 2026. The property was part of a larger, 8,000-acre West Virginia Ordnance Works ammunition manufacturing site with two fire water tanks that Monarch Cloud Campus is seeking agency approvals to demolish, according to the preliminary determination. Point Pleasant Junior/Senior High School and Point Pleasant Primary School are located about 2.29 and 3.37 miles southwest of the planned facility, respectively, according to the DEP preliminary determination. The nearest residence would be 499 feet from the southwest property line, per the determination. An air dispersion modeling report published in May and prepared for Monarch Cloud Campus by Houston-based Environmental Resources Management Southwest, Inc., noted that an analysis was performed to address possible additional impacts that may occur on visibility, soil and vegetation as a result of the proposed project, in addition to “general commercial, residential, industrial, and other growth associated with the project.” The analysis found the proposed project isn’t expected to have “any measurable effect on the surrounding population” since the majority of employees hired due to the project are anticipated to be area residents. “Additional industrial or residential growth is not expected,” the report noted, holding further that air quality effects would be well below sensitivity thresholds for impacts to vegetation and soils. According to a draft air quality permit, the facility annually would have the potential to emit:

• 984 tons of carbon monoxide, which can contribute to atmospheric chemical reactions that lead to ozone air pollution and climate change
• 898 tons of volatile organic compounds, which can contribute to ground-level ozone and may cause cancer
• 619 tons of hazardous air pollutants
• 398 tons of nitrogen oxides, which can harm respiratory systems and contribute to acid rain
• 35 tons of fine particulate matter, or soot, which has been linked to premature death in people with heart or lung disease, heart attacks, worsened asthma and diminished lung function

The facility also would annually emit more than 11 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, defined by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency as the combination of pollutants that contribute to climate change adjusted using their global warming potential.

Proposed Mason County data center could get $50 million annual tax break, think tank estimates -- A proposed Mason County data center campus for the technology company Meta could avoid paying about $50 million a year in local taxes through a tentative agreement between the county and Meta, according to a new analysis from a progressive think tank.  In its Friday analysis, the Kentucky Center for Economic Policy estimates the local property tax break offered by the county to Meta would “dramatically reduce” the company’s taxes to the county government and local schools, even when accounting for smaller annual payments Meta would make directly to the county and schools as a substitute for paying the local taxes. Jason Bailey, the executive director of the Kentucky Center for Economic Policy, told the Lantern the think tank doesn’t want the “enormous” local tax break offered in Mason County to become “a template for other data center projects across the state.” “What Meta is giving or providing in payments to Mason County is a small fraction of what they would pay if they were taxed fully in the way that other businesses and residents of Mason County are,” Bailey said. “That is supposed to be one of the draws or attractions of data centers, but we’re already seeing much of that being evaded away.”  The think tank, pulling from details provided in the community benefits agreement, estimates the county and local schools would receive about $59 million annually in local property taxes without the bonds. In contrast, the agreement calls for Meta to pay the county about $5 million annually and the local school district about $2 million annually as a substitute for paying the taxes.  Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, recently settled a multistate lawsuit over whether its products harmed young people; Kentucky will get $358 million in that deal. A Meta spokesperson did not immediately provide a response Friday afternoon to an emailed Lantern request for comment about the analysis.  Democratic Mason County Judge-Executive Owen McNeill did not immediately respond to emails and text messages sent Friday afternoon requesting a phone interview about the analysis. McNeill, a backer of the project, revealed Meta’s involvement during a fiscal court meeting this month after it had been a secret to the public for over a year.  The think tank’s analysis primarily focuses on what are known as industrial revenue bonds offered by the county that will exempt the data center campus from paying local property taxes.  The Lantern reported a tentative community benefits agreement between the county and a subsidiary of Meta states that it will invest billions of dollars into the project’s initial phase but will also receive those bonds from the county that are set to last 40 years. The detailed local tax breaks also do not account for the state-level sales tax break on data center equipment passed by the GOP-controlled state legislature, which the think tank estimates could give an additional $400 million-plus tax break for the initial phase of the Meta data center.  Some Republican state lawmakers have hinted at rolling back that sales tax break when lawmakers reconvene next year. That sales tax break would have to be approved by a state economic development board that meets later this month.  Bailey said their latest analysis is a “rough estimate” that makes “a lot of assumptions”, including how much of the value of taxed property of the data center campus will be the equipment — the computers, for example — and how much value will be the land and buildings on the campus. But he said the think tank wanted to get an initial understanding of the scale of the local tax break, arguing it deserves as much scrutiny as state-level tax breaks that could benefit data center developers.

After $750M deal falls through, Pulaski residents discuss data centers - Roanoke Times - — Residents gathered in Dublin on Thursday night for an informational session on data centers, less than two weeks after a $750 million deal that could have brought a data center to Pulaski County fell through. About 50 people gathered Thursday at the New River Valley Fairgrounds to hear a presentation on the pros and cons of data center development. An agreement between the operators of the New River Valley Commerce Park, Virginia’s First Regional Industrial Facility Authority, and New River Valley LLC was supposed to close Oct. 5. The agreement, which was signed in 2019, identified data centers as one possible use for the property. Michael Solomon, executive director of Virginia’s First, talks about how the recent data center deal did not go through for the Commerce Park in Pulaski County. Michael Solomon, executive director of Virginia’s First, said the prospective developer did not share details about why it pulled out of the agreement. Representatives of the company did not respond to requests for comment. Although there is no longer a data center proposal on the immediate horizon, about 50 people gathered Thursday at the New River Valley Fairgrounds to hear a presentation on the pros and cons of data center development from Christopher Lloyd, senior vice president and director of infrastructure and economic development at McGuireWoods Consulting. Virginia’s First organized the presentation. Lloyd spoke for about 40 minutes before taking written questions from attendees. His presentation focused on the significant economic benefits of data centers, which can generate tens of millions of dollars in tax revenue for the localities that host them, as well as the impacts “residents should consider.” Many attendees wore clothing bearing anti-data center slogans. At one point, a person during the presentation a person called out, “Who here still opposes data centers?” A majority of attendees raised their hands. During the question-and-answer session that followed, Lloyd fielded questions about noise, water consumption, energy use and environmental impacts, among other topics. Solomon took questions about the abandoned development proposal and the possibility of a data center coming to the commerce park in the future. Questions were submitted on note cards, a format some attendees took issue with. Solomon said the cards were intended to address safety concerns. “There are death threats that have happened to people that have been in these positions and we took that very seriously,” Solomon said. “We thought this was a way we can limit it and still give people a chance to have their views heard.” Several residents asked Solomon whether Virginia’s First would continue marketing the commerce park to data center developers. “We are going to market it to all kinds of industry,” he said. “They are a by-right use at the park, so we would be willing to talk to data centers if they came.”

300-plus local data center bans have only delayed just three US projects — bans 'much more bark than bite,' only 2.3 gigawatts of data centers are held up, versus 38 gigawatts expected online in 2027 - More than 300 local data center construction moratoriums haven’t had a massive impact on planned buildouts, with only three projects at about 2.3 out of 21 gigawatts (GW) of data centers in moratorium areas likely to be delayed, with a total of 38 GW projected to come online next year, SemiAnalysis shared on X. Per-project audits of the moratoriums indicate that they tend to miss the site, the permit, or the timeline.  The crux of the report is that, while everyone thinks the moratoriums are killing the U.S. buildout, its forecast has “barely moved over the last 12 months.” This forecast includes 38 GW of U.S. data center IT capacity in 2027, which is more than double that of 2026. Of that, 22 GW is under vertical construction, and the other 16 GW is mostly financed, with site work being done. The enacted local moratoriums cover about 20 GW with only about 1.5 GW of it delayed; New York’s pause adds 0.8 GW more. “We think moratoriums COULD delay the buildout, but they just aren’t yet at scale.”  The firm defines a moratorium as a “temporary legal pause,” and almost always a “freeze on accepting new applications.” More than 400 local instruments are tracked across 17 states, the enacted ones including a few permanent zoning bans, as of September. Four states acted in under two months this summer: New York, Texas, Pennsylvania, and Oregon. To test each active restriction against the records of thousands of projects, the firm’s analysts worked alongside “an army of state-of-the-art research agents.” Several reasons are given for moratorium ineffectiveness, starting with the fact that they don’t revoke existing approvals. Short ones may expire before later projects need approval, and litigation or equipment lead times may already set the schedule. A moratorium moves the delivery date only if every condition holds, including that it reaches the parcel, is in force, overlaps the timeline, and covers the use in a way the project can’t work around. Capacity already under construction or fully permitted is also out of reach. For example, Michigan has 45 enacted moratoriums but effectively zero pipeline exposure, and a Google campus there sits on industrial land already zoned for data processing. The firm says SpaceX’s planned data center in Brownsville, Texas, is on land the city removed from its limits and thus out of reach of the city’s moratorium. For a moratorium that did work, a township adopted a pause before NorthPoint, in Pennsylvania, filed for its special exception, with local approval pushed to next year. The company is still pursuing it.

The capacity market crisis is a design problem, not a verdict on competition - Across the country, wholesale markets are signaling looming electricity shortages, and some observers have called for a return to the regulated, vertically integrated utility model. The PJM Interconnection’s latest capacity market auction cleared at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s approved cap for the third consecutive time, more than eleven times the price four years ago, and fell short of PJM’s reliability requirement. The results are indicative of the scope of the underinvestment crisis. However, advocating for competitive markets to be abolished and replaced with vertically integrated models conflates concerns about aspects of competitive wholesale market implementation with a fundamental failure of the market-based framework itself. Competitive markets have brought innovation and efficiency to the deployment of power generation and have removed the poor incentives that in the past have plagued the vertically integrated model. Rather than discarding competitive markets altogether, along with the decades of improvements they have brought, states, FERC and regional transmission organizations should drive greater use of long-term power purchase agreements between generators and off-takers, including load-serving entities, or LSEs, that serve retail customers. These long-term agreements support the more durable, long-term investment signals encouraging the sustained buildout of infrastructure that RTO-managed spot and capacity markets cannot reliably provide. As PJM’s recent white paper lays out, these long-term agreements could be bilateral agreements between independent power producers and LSEs, driven by hedging requirements imposed by regulators, or directly between IPPs and RTOs, funded through a reliability charge to participants. Introducing competition into electricity markets was a policy goal pursued over several decades. A series of legislative actions and FERC orders enabled competitive wholesale power markets.

• 1978: The Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act required utilities to buy electricity from qualifying independent generators at the price at which the utility would have paid to generate electricity or purchase it from another source.
• 1992: The Energy Policy Act, among other reforms, expanded FERC’s authority on a case-by-case basis to require utilities to provide access to transmission systems.
• 1996: FERC Orders 888 and 889 built on the 1992 Energy Policy Act, requiring public utilities to provide open, non-discriminatory access to transmission and establishing standards of conduct and rules for information sharing.
• 1999: FERC Order 2000 established the framework for the RTOs that now operate across much of the country, including PJM.

In PJM, as in many restructured markets, retail competition never developed as robustly as regulators expected. Thirteen states and the District of Columbia offer residential electricity choice programs but include attractive default-provider provisions that substantially reduce the incentives for competition. In 2024, residential customers’ subscription rates to competitive suppliers hovered around 25% in those states, excluding Texas, according to EIA data. Utility commissions pushed to make default service options very attractive, in part to show that restructuring would deliver lower prices quickly, oftentimes mandating rate reductions of 10% to 20% as the program was implemented. Many states also encouraged default providers to lean heavily on the spot market rather than locking in longer-term supply. Rather than making electricity markets and the underlying system more efficient, many academic papers have argued that electricity market restructuring created a structural subsidy under which the cost of default retail supply is subsidized by regulated transmission and distribution service. Until recently, the danger of relying heavily on the spot market has not been evident, because low demand growth masked the importance of long-term contracts, including for capacity. Such “hedging” contracts would protect consumers from volatile wholesale prices and give generators predictable revenue streams, thereby facilitating more investment in additional generation capacity (at lower cost, which helps moderate prices). As demand growth has accelerated, this fault in market implementation has been exposed, and price spikes have been the result.

Billions more dollars are pouring into the Great Lakes region’s nuclear plants - Great Lakes Now - Google is going big on nuclear power. The tech giant is partnering with Constellation Energy, the country’s largest nuclear power plant operator, on a $4.3 billion deal to add capacity at existing plants. The partnership calls for “uprates” — meaning upgrades to turbines, generators and other systems — at 11 reactors across six nuclear sites in Illinois, Pennsylvania and New Jersey, adding 890 total megawatts of generating capacity. Constellation expects to complete these uprates in the early 2030s.Even more uprates are ahead in Ohio and Pennsylvania, where three nuclear power plants are in line for a $4.2 billion federal loan. Vistra, owner of the Davis-Besse and Perry plants in Ohio and the Beaver Valley plant in Pennsylvania, is advancing plans to add 433 megawatts of generating capacity, a more than 10% boost. The U.S. Department of Energy said investing in the plants could keep them operating for 20 years beyond their existing licenses, now set to expire in the 2030s and 2040s.A month after Enbridge’s Line 5 pipeline suffered a significant gas leak, construction on a controversial pipeline reroute in northern Wisconsin may have breached an aquifer. An Enbridge spokesperson said in a statement that a flow of water was observed following the installation of a pipe beneath the Marengo River. But the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources said last week that the agency hadn’t determined whether the flow of water was due to an aquifer breach, Wisconsin Public Radio reported.A Minnesota mining firm has bold plans for a lower-carbon steel plant in Iowa. The $15 billion steel mill would process iron ore from Mesabi Metallics’ new mining and processing operation in Minnesota’s Iron Range — Minnesota’s first new iron ore mine in 50 years. Furnaces at the Iowa steel plant would be fed by natural gas and electricity, rather than coal, traditionally a staple of steelmaking.As for the Trump administration’s emergency order to keep a Michigan coal plant operating past its retirement date? That was illegal, a federal court of appeals has ruled. Administration officials said last year that closing Consumers Energy’s J.H. Campbell plant could cause electricity shortages in the region. The administration has since extended the 90-day order a half-dozen times. Multiple states and environmental groups challenged the original order, arguing the plant’s closure was not, in fact, an emergency and the administration had overstepped its authority. A three-judge panel agreed unanimously that the closure did not qualify as an emergency under federal law. But the plant’s owner said it would continue to comply with the administration’s order while it reviewed the court ruling.More energy news, in case you missed it:

• Ontario has begun an extensive refurbishment project at the province’s Pickering Nuclear Generating Station that’s expected to take a decade and cost CA$26.8 billion but extend the plant’s life by up to 38 years.
• Ohio regulators have approved what would be the state’s biggest utility-scale solar project following a multiyear battle.
• Michigan’s two largest utilities are proposing to build four total natural gas plants at a cost of $10 billion, citing growing demand for electricity.
• New York is sending energy rebate checks up to $200 to qualifying taxpayers, after expanding eligibility for the state’s opt-in Energy Affordability Program earlier this year.
• The Ann Arbor City Council voted to oppose a citizen-led ballot proposal that would begin the process of creating a municipal utility amid concerns about the proposal’s wording.

Driller Wants to Frack Under Ohio’s Monroe Lake Wildlife Area -- Marcellus Drilling News - Ohio’s state-land leasing program has a new target. A driller (whose name is kept secret by state law, for now) has asked the Ohio Oil and Gas Land Management Commission (OGLMC) to open about 618 acres under the Monroe Lake Wildlife Area in Monroe County to shale drilling. Public comments are open through Nov. 30. The twist this time? Because of the calendar, the final call may land on the desk of whoever wins next month’s race for governor.

Gas drillers ask Ohio to open public-owned Monroe Lake Wildlife Area for fracking - The request comes as the industry-receptive Oil and Gas Land Management Commission has opened 22,000 acres of state parks and wildlife reserves to oil and gas exploration since 2021. The next governor could shape future deals. A company has asked state officials to open Monroe Lake Wildlife Area in eastern Ohio to oil and gas development, making the preserve the newest target for industry exploration on public lands. Drillers are proposing to tap into oil and gas reserves under about 618 acres of the 1,333-acre Monroe County expanse, which is popular among hunters and fishers. The Ohio Oil and Gas Land Management Commission, a panel of gubernatorial appointees, will rule on the application. In practice, the panel has almost always granted industry requests, which opens a round of competitive bidding for the mineral rights. Statehouse Republicans in 2021 forcibly revived what was essentially a dormant program that allowed state agencies to lease acreage owned by the public to the oil and gas industry. Since then, Ohio has opened 22,000 acres of its state parks and wildlife areas to fracking plays, exclusively awarded to out-of-state drillers. That includes 6,200 acres of Salt Fork State Park, 14,800 at the neighboring Jockey Hollow and Egypt Valley WIldlife areas, and smaller tracts of land mostly around eastern and southeastern Ohio. All told, Ohio has received $314 million so far from the sales, mostly through signing bonuses. Some of the first royalty payments on production rolling were received this summer. About one-third of the money goes to the park that hosted the drilling, with the rest generally flowing to state coffers. When Republican Gov. Mike DeWine signed the new program into law, he said his administration would only approve projects that don’t disturb surface land at parks. At all projects considered to date, applicants propose plans that entail drilling thousands of feet downward from well pads just outside the park before turning 90 degrees and reaching shale underneath. From the bore hole, drillers pump a mixture of water, sand and chemicals at high pressure to free gas from the shale. They pump up the mix of gas and brine, and industrial waste, back up to the surface. Every Ohio public lands leasing deal to date with the fracking industry has fallen on DeWine’s administration. The future of Monroe Lake, however, may be in the hands of the next governor. A public comment period on the application is open until Nov. 30. The OGLMC must act within 90 days of the receipt of the nomination, meaning its deadline comes after the inauguration of a new governor unless the DeWine administration rushes it through. The Republican candidate, Vivek Ramaswamy, has indicated support for fracking state parks by shooting videos supporting Ohio’s fracking industry from one of the biggest such projects in Ohio at Salt Fork. He’s running against Democratic Dr. Amy Acton. The campaign in a statement said that while Acton supports fracking among other energy production resources, she thinks state forests and wildlife areas should be left alone.

Drillers Target 618 Acres Beneath Ohio's Monroe Lake Wildlife Area for Fracking - Gas drillers have asked Ohio to open up the Monroe Lake Wildlife Area, a 1,333-acre public preserve in eastern Ohio popular with hunters and fishers, to oil and gas development. The proposal would tap reserves under about 618 acres of the property, making it the newest public tract in the state's sights for fracking. The application calls for drilling thousands of feet downward from well pads positioned just outside the wildlife area, then turning 90 degrees to reach shale formations beneath the park itself, according to Signal Cleveland. From there, drillers pump a mixture of water, sand and chemicals at high pressure to free gas trapped in the shale, then pump gas, brine and industrial waste back up to the surface. The Ohio Oil and Gas Land Management Commission, made up of gubernatorial appointees, will decide whether to approve the nomination. The commission has almost always granted industry requests like this one, the outlet reports, and approval would trigger a competitive bidding round for the underlying mineral rights. That track record matters here: the panel must act within 90 days of receiving the Monroe Lake nomination, and depending on timing, that deadline could fall after Ohio's next governor is sworn in unless Gov. Mike DeWine's administration moves first. A public comment period on the application remains open through Nov. 30, 2026. Separately, Ohio law requires that a nomination be available for public inspection for at least 21 days before the commission votes to approve or reject it, according to the Ohio Revised Code. The commission itself is described by the Ohio Department of Natural Resources as the body that deliberates on leasing the state's mineral rights. Monroe Lake is only the latest chapter in a rapid expansion of fracking on Ohio's public land. Statehouse Republicans revived a dormant leasing program in 2021, and the state has since opened 22,000 acres of parks and wildlife areas to drilling, including 6,200 acres at Salt Fork State Park and 14,800 acres across the Jockey Hollow and Egypt Valley wildlife areas, per the same reporting from Signal Cleveland's coverage of the issue. Ohio has collected $314 million so far from those public-land sales, most of it in signing bonuses, with some of the first production royalties arriving in mid-2026. Roughly one-third of that oil and gas revenue flows back to whichever park hosted the drilling, while the rest generally lands in state coffers. DeWine, who signed the leasing program into law, has said his administration would approve only projects that avoid disturbing surface land at the parks themselves. The scale of Ohio's public-land leasing has only grown this year. The Ohio Oil and Gas Land Management Commission approved more than 8,000 acres at Egypt Valley Wildlife Area and more than 500 acres at Salt Fork State Park, according to the Ohio Capital Journal, which detailed four separate Egypt Valley bid selections spanning 3,846, 2,792, 849 and 746 acres, plus a 513-acre award at Salt Fork in Guernsey County. By late June, state officials had selected winning bids covering nearly 15,000 acres across Egypt Valley, Jockey Hollow and part of Salt Fork, and the cleveland.com reported the commission awarded 22 leases expected to bring in more than $241 million in upfront payments alone.  At Salt Fork, drilling company Infinity Natural Resources built its first well pad on private land about a third of a mile outside the park's southern boundary and is drilling four wells there, according to WOSU Public Media. Its state leases require testing of water wells and other water sources, including Salt Fork Lake, within 3,000 feet of any well before drilling starts. At Egypt Valley, an unidentified driller has filed four more applications that would collectively open over 8,300 additional acres, The Intelligencer reported.The buildout carries documented trade-offs. Ohio has budgeted $3 million in fiscal year 2026 royalties from wildlife-area fracking toward conservation efforts, according to The Statehouse News Bureau, which also cited researchers who found that fracking activity shifts forest songbird communities over time, pushing out more sensitive species in favor of generalists. FracTracker Alliance separately tallied roughly 2,000 incidents tied to Ohio oil and gas wells between 2015 and 2023, per the Ohio Capital Journal.. Guernsey County, home to Salt Fork, had nearly 300 producing wells by the end of 2023, and a researcher cited by The Allegheny Front expects more than 100 new wells across Ohio's shale counties, Guernsey included, in the next report. The fate of Ohio's public-land leasing program, including the pending Monroe Lake decision, could ultimately land with whoever becomes the state's next governor. Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, who is running against Democratic candidate Dr. Amy Acton, supports fracking state parks and has shot industry-supporting videos at Salt Fork, one of Ohio's largest fracking projects. Acton's campaign has said she supports fracking among other energy production methods but believes state forests and wildlife areas should be left alone.

Utica Shale Academy debuts new program in Salineville, Ohio -   (WKBN) – Utica Shale Academy held a grand opening Monday morning for a new program and facility. Their new Tire Changing Program teaches students how to run a garage of their own. The new facility is D.B. Dixon Garage, a workspace with vehicle lifts, balancers, a tire changer and more equipment to provide students with hands-on learning. Speakers at the event included Lieutenant Governor Jim Tressel and Congressman Mike Rulli. This is all possible thanks to the Future Forward Schools Prize, funded by Building Hope and Britebound. “With this brand new grant, it sounds really simple. It’s called tire changing. But it’s not just like, so you could change a tire when you’re going down the road,” Rulli said. “It’s actually, if you want to run a garage and you want to be involved with a different dealer, you know, the dealers are growing by leaps and bounds.” Utica Shale became a top 10 finalist for the award back in April and is one of five schools across the country to receive $50,000 from the $250,000 total prize pool. “There is such a change in philosophy throughout the country for hands-on, to do things that AI cannot do,” Rep. Michael Rulli said. “Like, if you want to be a welder, if you want to work on a natural gas pad, if you want to be a carpenter, if you want to do any of the labor-skilled trades, it is crucial that you actually start thinking about that when you’re in seventh and eighth grade. And that’s what’s going on at the Utica Shale Academy. They’re giving these kids actual hope.”

PA-OH-WV Shale Permits Oct 12-18: 12 New Wells, 19 Older-Well Moves - Marcellus Drilling News -   The Marcellus/Utica region received 12 new shale well permits last week, October 12-18, up 3 from 9 the week before. Pennsylvania issued 9 of the new permits. Ohio issued 2. And West Virginia issued a single new permit. The drillers who received new-well permits last week were: Antero Resources, Ascent Resources, Expand Energy, Range Resources, and Seneca Resources. Before we go further, a quick housekeeping note: Starting this week, MDN counts only permits for brand-new wells in the headline number. State agencies also issue renewals (more time to drill a well that was already permitted), modifications (changes to a well that was already permitted, like a new wellbore path), and in Ohio, “deepen” permits. Those wells were already counted the first time around, so counting them again would double-count. We now list them separately, in their own section below.  Antero Resources | Ascent Resources | Expand Energy | Jefferson County (OH) | Range Resources Corp | Ritchie County | Seneca Resources | Sullivan County | Tioga County (PA) | Washington County

DEP: Contaminated Water Release Discovered At Deer Run Oil & Gas LLC Conventional Oil & Gas Well Site In Crawford County -  On September 30, 2026, the Department of Environmental Protection inspected the Deer Run Oil & Gas LLC Newcomb 17 conventional oil and gas well in Beaver Township, Crawford County and discovered a contaminated water release.The release came from a contaminated water storage tank that spilled fluid into secondary containment.Pooled water in the containment area had a telltale sheen and field testing confirmed the water was contaminated with very high conductivity readings.“The operator is required to remedy the cause of the leak, remove the contaminated fluid and soil, and fill the affected area with fresh material.  Disposal receipts for the proper disposal of contaminated material are requested.”Multiple violations were issued. Click Here for DEP inspection report + photos.Deer Run Oil & Gas holds 119 permits.To report oil and gas violations or any environmental emergency or complaint, visit DEP’s Environmental Complaint webpage.Text photos and the location of abandoned wells to 717-788-8990.

DEP: Bialy Gas Production Intent To Plug Abandoned Conventional Well Leads To Discovery Of Severely Corroded Contaminated Water Tanks With Holes, Leaking Fluids In Beaver County - On October 8, 2026, the Department of Environmental Protection inspected the Bialy Gas Production LLC J. Edward Turnour 2 conventional oil and gas well in Economy Borough, Beaver County in response to a Notice of Intent to Plug the well.DEP discovered two of the five contaminated water and production tanks on the site were severely corroded and had multiple holes.One tank was leaking an oil-like substance and the second tank was releasing an orange fluid.   Field testing confirmed contamination around the tanks.DEP also noted the owner did not have the required erosion and sedimentation control plan for the site and recommended one be developed and implemented. Multiple violations were issued for the corroded, leaking tanks with holes in them and a written response to the violations was requested by October 30. Click Here for the DEP inspection report + photos. In March 2025, DEP issued violations to Bialy Gas Production LLC for abandoning and not plugging 26 conventional wells in Beaver County, including this well. Read more here.  Bialy Gas holds 36 conventional oil and gas well permits.

DEP: Routine Inspections Find 3 Keystone Crude LLC Abandoned, Unplugged Conventional Gas Wells In Allegheny County -  On October 9, 2026, the Department of Environmental Protection did routine inspections of three Keystone Crude LLC conventional wells in Moon Township, Allegheny County and found them all abandoned and not plugged.  DEP found each of the wells were disconnected from production equipment and had not reported any production since 2011, although their annual production, waste and well integrity reports were submitted. Multiple violations were issued and a written response was requested by October 30. Click Here for DEP inspection reports + photos for  M. Weisenberger 4,  M. Weisenberger 5, and M. Weisenberger 6. August 4, 2026 follow-up inspections by the Department of Environmental Protection of three Keystone Crude LLC conventional gas well sites in North Fayette and Robinson townships, Allegheny County found the owner is making progress in addressing spills and releases at the sites dating back to June 11, 2024. Read more here.   Keystone Crude LLC holds 34 permits.

DEP: Routine Inspections Find 16 Anderson Energy SVC LLC Conventional Wells Abandoned, Not Plugged In Forest County - On October 13 & 15, 2026, the Department of Environmental Protection inspected 7 Anderson Energy SVC LLC conventional wells in Harmony Township, Forest County and found them all abandoned and not plugged.Each of the wells was not equipped to produce, not connected to any gathering line and the access road and the well sites were overgrown with vegetation.This same statement was in each of the inspection reports-- “In order for this well to be brought into compliance, measures are expected to be taken to either bring the well into production or plug the well.”DEP issued multiple violations and requested a response by November 4.The conventional wells include: Milford 1, Milford 2, Milford 3, Milford 4, Milford 5, Milford 6, Milford 7, Milford 8, Milford 9, Milford 10, Milford 12, Milford 15, Milford North 31, Milford North 36, Milford North 37, Milford North 53.   Anderson Energy holds 518 permits, including one other abandoned well.

DEP: Follow-Up Inspections Of 4 Michael Harju Conventional Wells Found They Continue To Be Abandoned, Not Plugged Going Back To 2020 In Westmoreland County -  On October 13 & 16, 2026, the Department of Environmental Protection did follow-up inspections on 4 Michael Harju conventional oil and gas wells in Westmoreland County and found they continued to be abandoned and not plugged.The wells include--

• -- Upper Burrell Twp: N. Watson 1 (Abandoned since 11.8.2020),
• -- Washington Twp: George Hill 1 (Abandoned since 6.15.2023), JB Kerns 2 (Abandoned since 6.15.2023), WW Swank 4 (Abandoned since 11.18.2020)

DEP also found the owner failed to submit any production, waste generation or well integrity reports for the wells, which DEP noted is a violation of an order issued to the owner.DEP continued the abandoned well violations and requested a written response by November 6.Michael Harju holds 158 permits, including 13 other abandoned wells.DEP has issued multiple orders to Michael Harju to plug abandoned wells and failed to get a response and had to start plugging several wells at taxpayer expense.  Read more here.

DEP Investigating Oct. 4 Seismic Event In Westmoreland County To Determine If There Is A Relationship To Local Shale Gas Operations - On October 9, 2026, the Department of Environmental Protection inspected the EQT Production Co. Porter shale gas well pad in Allegheny Township, Westmoreland County as part of an investigation into an October 4 seismic event. DEP said a “seismic event” was reported on Sunday, October 4 and the Porter pad was within 6 miles of the epicenter of the earthquake. At the time of DEP’s visit, fracking was underway at three of the shale gas wells and three others were completed. DEP reviewed pressure logs from the wells for October 4, but did not see any abnormal fluctuations. DEP also requested stage reports for all the shale gas wells fracked on the pad in August, September and October. DEP’s Oil and Gas Mapping Tool shows there are about a dozen shale gas well pads within a six mile radius of the Porter pad, but it is not known how many other pads had drilling or fracking going on at the time of the seismic event.No other requests of the pad owner were made in the DEP inspection report.On March 4, 2026, the Department of Environmental Protection inspected the Penneco Environmental Solutions LLC Sedat 3A oil and gas wastewater injection well in Plum Boro, Allegheny County as a result of a seismic event recorded at the Sedat 3A monitoring station on Feb. 7, 2026 at 5:26 a.m.The epicenter of the event was near Murrysville, Westmoreland County approximately six miles from the injection well.Penneco reported normal operations at the injection well on the day of the seismic event.  Read more here.Plum Boro is just east of the Porter well pad-- and others. Murrysville is about 10 miles southwest of the Porter well pad. On February 20, 2025 DEP conducted a “stimulation” [fracking] inspection of the Hephaestus shale gas well pad and six gas wells in Upper Burrell Township, Westmoreland County “due to recent observations of seismic activity within the vicinity of the well” pad. Fracking on wells 1, 3 and 5 was completed on February 9. Fracking began on wells 7, 9 and 11 on February 9. “No pressure anomalies noted on the wells being monitored on/off pad” by the well owner representatives. 

New Seneca Water Pipeline Signals More Fracking in Tioga County   - Marcellus Drilling News -  Tioga County, PA township map (click for larger version) Want to know where a driller plans to frack next? Follow the water. Pennsylvania’s Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) just issued a permit allowing Seneca Resources, the drilling arm of National Fuel Gas (NFG), to build a 16-inch freshwater pipeline through Farmington and Chatham townships in northern Tioga County. You don’t lay a 16-inch water line to fill a kiddie pool. Add in a string of new Seneca well pad water approvals in those same townships, a new interstate gas pipeline ending in Chatham Township, and Seneca’s coming life as a standalone company, and the message is pretty clear: more wells (and more royalty checks) are headed for this corner of Tioga County.

Homer City Update: First Turbine Set, Amazon Plan Now Under Review -- Marcellus Drilling News --The Homer City Energy Campus in Indiana County, PA — the largest natural gas-fired power plant under construction anywhere in the U.S. — just ticked off a few nice milestones. Construction contractor Kiewit marked one year on the job, the workforce has topped 2,000, and the first of seven giant gas turbines is now sitting on its foundation. Meanwhile, Amazon’s plan to build 36 data centers next door is officially on the county’s review clock; the Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) just held a hearing on the plant’s water discharge permit, and the usual suspects are still fighting the plant’s air permit. Here’s where things stand.

World Pays $29 for Natgas, Henry Hub $3, Appalachia $1. Here’s Why  -- Marcellus Drilling News -  On Monday, gas buyers in Europe paid $28.91 per MMBtu for natural gas. Buyers in Japan and South Korea paid $30.01. Here at home, the November contract at Louisiana’s Henry Hub (the U.S. benchmark) closed at about $3.06. And last Thursday, gas sold at Texas Eastern M-2, the main price point for southwestern Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio, fetched just $1.055. Same molecule of methane. Europe and Asia are paying nearly 10 times what the rest of America gets, and about 27 times what our Appalachian gas sold for last week. Why the giant gap? And what does it mean for your royalty check?

Appalachian Spot Prices Jump While NYMEX Futures Slide Below -- Marcellus Drilling News -   Here’s a head-scratcher for you. On Tuesday, the price of natural gas futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) took a tumble, slipping below $3 for the first time in more than two weeks. Yet on that very same day, the “spot” (cash) price for gas right here in Appalachia went UP—and one trading point jumped more than 20% in a single day. How does that happen? And should drillers and royalty owners break out the champagne? Let’s unpack it.

Update: MXP Pipeline Fixed Early, Appalachian Gas Prices Bounce  - Marcellus Drilling News - On Friday, we told you a leak on Columbia Gas Transmission’s Mountaineer XPress (MXP) pipeline had pushed Appalachian gas down to $1.06 (see Mountaineer XPress Leak Sinks Appalachian Gas Price to $1.06). There’s an update, and most of it is good news. TCO fixed the leak and lifted its force majeure Friday afternoon, a day earlier than it had predicted. Local prices had already started to recover in Friday morning trading. But the second outage we flagged, on Texas Eastern in Kentucky, won’t be fixed until early November.

Uncle Sam Writes $42M Check to Jump-Start Constitution Pipeline -- Marcellus Drilling News -  The Trump administration just put real money where its mouth is on the Constitution Pipeline. Yesterday the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announced it will spend up to $42 million in Defense Production Act (DPA) money to nudge Williams’ long-dead, now-revived 125-mile pipeline from Susquehanna County, PA to Schoharie County, NY closer to reality. The money won’t buy a single length of pipe—it pays for permitting and pre-construction work. And it doesn’t change the fact that New York and its Big Green allies are still fighting the project tooth and nail. But it sends a loud message: Washington now officially considers Constitution a national security asset.

About 2% of natural gas supplied to a Midwest city leaks into the atmosphere  -Most natural gas leakage in Indianapolis likely originates from homes and other buildings, not exterior pipelines and large-scale distribution infrastructure that deliver the fossil fuel, according to Penn State researchers who assessed nearly a decade of data. Credit: Photographs in the Carol M. Highsmith Archive, Library of Congress, Prints and Photographs Division Most natural gas leakage in Indianapolis likely originates from homes and other buildings, not exterior pipelines and large-scale distribution infrastructure that deliver the fossil fuel, according to Penn State researchers who assessed nearly a decade of data.Their observations could signal similar emissions patterns across U.S. cities and shape mitigation strategies, members of the team said. They evaluated continuous measurements of methane, the main component of natural gas, across the Midwest city to estimate emissions from natural gas distribution.The analysis relied on a network of monitoring devices affixed to tall towers that informed one of the world's most detailed records of urban methane, the team wrote recently in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. Its replicable approach offers cities a reliable way to identify and measure emissions of methane—the second-most impactful greenhouse gas generated by humans—and to inform public policy on climate, said the researchers in the College of Earth and Mineral Sciences. They estimated about 2% of all natural gas piped into Indianapolis is eventually leaked. Over 100 years, methane has 28 times greater impact than carbon dioxide in trapping radiation, according to data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and cited by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency."Two percent leakage is massive from a climate standpoint," said lead author Zachary Barkley, an associate research professor in the Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science. He explained that the estimate represents a significant volume of uncounted emissions and outpaces an EPA estimate of such leakage nationally. "Our findings add to indicators that more methane than imagined may be escaping into the atmosphere from U.S. cities, even cities with relatively modern distribution systems like Indianapolis."The research paper emerged from a roughly 15-year collaboration among the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), Penn State and other partners including the University of Maryland. Starting in 2011, NIST supported the installation of the extensive monitoring network in Indianapolis to quantify greenhouse gas emissions in an urban environment. Until its wind-down in 2025, the network of up to 12 tower-based instruments documented trace gases including carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide and methane at heights up to 136 meters, or nearly 450 feet.  In part by incorporating aircraft- and ground-based measurements in their analysis, researchers determined the consistency and reliability of tower-based readings over extended periods, the team wrote. The qualities are vital in identifying long-term patterns. "We found it really doesn't take much to monitor emissions effectively," Barkley said. "Sometimes all you need is a few good, solid instruments and measurement systems downwind of a city, and you can really figure out what's going on." The researchers determined that the city released an average of 3.4 metric tons of methane per hour, nearly half of that coming from a landfill known as the South Side Landfill—the single largest source of methane emissions in the area. Methane emissions were higher by 13% during the winter, but seasonal variations were less pronounced than those recorded in Los Angeles and the D.C. region in other studies during the past decade, according to the paper.Results also suggested relative year-to-year consistency in Indianapolis' overall methane emissions, despite wide variations in calculations that the EPA used to assess the landfill emissions through 2023, Barkley said. EPA figures are available through a data portal tracking greenhouse gas emissions. While cities in the Northeast tend to have older, more leak-prone exterior gas lines, researchers expected less leakage in Indianapolis because of its more modern, plastic transmission lines. But their discovery of what they called "an ambient plume of methane everywhere in Indianapolis" suggests leaks from inside buildings, in sources such as gas-fired furnaces and interior gas pipes, Barkley said."We know where the emissions are. Public policy can reduce them," he said, pointing to incentives for technologies such as heat pumps.

Exports Let the Air Out of U.S. Propane’s Cushion Early | RBN Energy - The EIA reported a 529-Mbbl draw in total U.S. propane/propylene inventories for the week ended October 16, lowering stocks to 105.8 MMbbl (red line in the first chart below). Stocks have drawn every week since the week ended September 25, when a 1.8-MMbbl build marked the last increase and lifted inventories to 109.6 MMbbl. The 3.8-MMbbl decline since then is the steepest for this period in at least 10 years (red bar in the second chart below). The closest comparison, 2020’s 3.6-MMbbl decline, was driven mainly by strong domestic demand. Inventories remain 2.7 MMbbl, or 3%, above both the same week in 2025 (blue line) and the five-year maximum, and 12.3 MMbbl, or 13%, above the five-year average (green line), but the cushion is thinning fast. Three weeks ago, stocks were 6.3 MMbbl above last year and 17.7 MMbbl above the five-year average.Exports are doing most of the pulling (see the exports chart below), and the drawdown is concentrated on the Gulf Coast, where PADD 3 stocks are down 4.5 MMbbl from a record 70.4 MMbbl set the week ended September 25, more than the national decline. U.S. exports have averaged 2.16 MMb/d over the past three weeks, 192 Mb/d above the same period last year. That is about 4 MMbbl of additional propane leaving the country, more than the entire 3.8-MMbbl decline. Since August, exports have averaged 217 Mb/d above last year. This week’s 2.03 MMb/d was above the previous five-year maximum of 1.92 MMb/d for the week. Production averaged 2.9 MMb/d, 60 Mb/d above last year, offsetting part of the export gain, while product supplied averaged 40 Mb/d more than a year ago. Last year, stocks kept building into late October, reaching 105.7 MMbbl in the week ended October 24, 2025. A total U.S. inventory draw larger than 165 Mbbl next week would push stocks below year-ago levels for the first time since the week ended October 10, 2025, with heating season still ahead.

Enbridge Nears Startup of Tennessee Natural Gas Pipeline Expansion - East Tennessee Natural Gas is preparing to place its Ridgeline Expansion into service as early as Nov. 1, adding 300,000 Dth/d of firm natural gas capacity to serve a natural gas-fired power plant that Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) is building at its Kingston coal-fired plant. Map of East Tennessee Natural Gas's proposed Ridgeline Expansion Project, showing pipeline routes and compressor stations between Nashville and Knoxville. At a Glance:
FERC accepts TVA’s 20-year Ridgeline rate
TVA extends life of Kingston coal units
Natural gas plant completion slips to 2028

NC Fracking Rules Up for Review, Data Center Well Is the Real Fight -- Marcellus Drilling News --North Carolina’s Oil and Gas Commission is doing something it is required to do once every 10 years: review its entire rulebook for oil and gas drilling, including fracking. The Commission’s verdict so far is that every last rule is “necessary.” Case closed, right? Not if you’re an anti. Clean Water for North Carolina (CWFNC) is in full alarm mode, urging supporters to flood the Commission with “not one step back” comments before the November 9 deadline. Why the panic over rules that have never been used (not once) in 11 years? Follow the gas. A company wants to reopen an old vertical well in Lee County to power an AI data center. It would be the first commercial gas well in the state’s history

Kinder Morgan Backlog Surges on AI Data Centers, Southeast Power Demand - Kinder Morgan (KMI) reported one of the largest quarterly increases in its project backlog in company history, reaching $14.4 billion as growing power demand from artificial intelligence (AI) data centers and utilities supports new natural gas pipeline investments. NGI chart compares Waha, Henry Hub and Southeast natural gas spot prices from April to October 2026. At a Glance:
Permian Link adds 2.8 Bcf/d takeaway capacity
Southeast Connector eyes 3.5 Bcf/d capacity
Hyperscaler backs pipeline

SpaceX AI Expansion Could Drive 3 Bcf/d of Natural Gas Demand by 2027 - SpaceX CEO Elon Musk said he would “be surprised” if his firm didn’t bring on at least 13 GW of power infrastructure for its artificial intelligence (AI) buildout by the end of 2027. At a Glance:

• Analysts project 1.5–3 Bcf/d consumption increase
• Power infrastructure could reach 23 GW
• Simple-cycle turbines could boost consumption

Wisconsin Greenlights 1.5 GW of Natural Gas-Fired Capacity --State regulators have approved plans by privately held power generator Invenergy to build two simple-cycle natural gas-fired peaker plants in southeastern Wisconsin with combined installed capacity of about 1.5 GW.NGI chart compares Chicago Citygate and Henry Hub winter 2025/26 natural gas spot prices, showing a January spike above $65/MMBtu in Chicago. At a Glance:
Plants expected online in 2028, 2030
Supply routes include ANR, Guardian
Region prone to winter demand spikes

U.S. LNG Feedgas Hits New Heights — With More on the Horizon | RBN Energy - U.S. LNG feedgas surged to an all-time high last weekend, reaching the long-awaited 20 bcf/d milestone as winter peak operations ramp up across several terminals.   U.S. LNG feedgas demand averaged 19.6 Bcf/d (blue-dotted line below) for the week ending October 19, up about 1.5 Bcf/d from the previous week, according to our LNG Voyager Weekly report.  Strong intake at Sabine Pass and Plaquemines, along with continued commissioning progress at Golden Pass, helped push demand to record levels, with further growth expected this winter as we discuss in our blog, The Time Has Come.

LNG Feedgas Breaks 20 Bcf/d Barrier as Marcellus Gas Returns on MXP - It’s official, or at least as official as these things get. America’s LNG export plants are drinking more natural gas than ever before. Two separate data trackers now say feedgas, the gas piped into LNG plants to be supercooled into a liquid and loaded onto ships, has set a new all-time high above 20 Bcf/d (billion cubic feet per day). NGI clocked 20.7 Bcf/d on Monday, the third straight day above its prior record. RBN Energy says feedgas has topped 20 Bcf/d for the first time ever. The milestone comes almost exactly a decade after the first LNG cargo left Cheniere’s Sabine Pass terminal in 2016. It also arrived just as a big chunk of Marcellus gas came back online after a leak on TC Energy’s Mountaineer XPress (MXP) pipeline in West Virginia.

Time Has Come Today – U.S. LNG Feedgas Demand Surpasses the 20-Bcf/d Milestone | RBN Energy - A decade ago, the first LNG cargo produced in the Lower 48 was exported from Sabine Pass. Now, the U.S. is home to eight terminals, with seven more under construction, and feedgas demand for LNG has surpassed 20 Bcf/d for the first time. To celebrate this monumental milestone, reached in the past few days, today’s RBN blog looks at how we got here, the recent stall in feedgas volumes, and where U.S. export demand is headed in the years to come.As U.S. shale gas production climbed in the late 2000s and early 2010s, it became clear that, far from running out of natural gas, the U.S. was heading toward a massive surplus. The abundance of low-cost natural gas spurred significant demand-side investment, driving a buildout of both natural gas-fired power generation and LNG export facilities. On July 31, 2012, Cheniere Energy reached a positive final investment decision (FID) on the first two trains at Sabine Pass LNG (dark-green diamond in Figure 1 below) in Cameron Parish, LA, paving the way for construction of the first LNG export terminal in the Lower 48.The first train began exporting in 2016 and over the next four years was joined by Cove Point LNG (light-blue diamond in Figure 1), Corpus Christi LNG (dark-blue diamond), Cameron LNG (purple diamond), Freeport LNG (teal diamond) and Elba Island LNG (medium-blue diamond). The sites — all converted from pre-existing LNG import terminals — are generally considered the “first wave of U.S. LNG.” By the beginning of 2020, U.S. LNG export capacity had reached around 7.5 Bcf/d and feedgas demand, which is the amount of gas needed to produce that LNG, was averaging around 8.3 Bcf/d and climbing. Let’s take a minute to explain feedgas, which we can think of as the demand impact on the U.S. market. In addition to the gas that is liquefied, LNG terminals (with the exception of Freeport LNG) also use gas to power the systems needed to produce that LNG and for behind-the-fence power generation. That usage, combined with losses during liquefaction, means terminals need more gas than is actually turned into LNG. The exact delta varies by terminal, season and the individual specifications at a given site but in general feedgas needs can be more than 10% higher than the export volumes or capacity. Also, while most LNG feedgas is delivered by interstate pipelines, there is some that comes completely via intrastate networks. (Intrastate pipelines are not required to report flow data, so there is a small modeled component in our topline feedgas number to account for these flows. Because of this, not every source tracking overall LNG feedgas may hit this milestone at the same time.)Daily LNG feedgas demand briefly reached above 9 Bcf/d before cratering because of the impacts of Covid-19 and the global markets crash of 2020. But while feedgas was low, the capacity buildout at the existing terminals was still underway and by the end of 2020 feedgas demand had climbed back above previous records and was over 11 Bcf/d.In 2022, Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass LNG (red diamond in Figure 1) became the first fully greenfield export terminal, followed by Plaquemines LNG (light-purple diamond) in 2025. Plaquemines is still technically commissioning, although it has been producing LNG at or even above its nameplate capacity since the end of 2025. Venture Global raised the terminal’s peak capacity during the commissioning when it became clear the trains were capable of producing LNG above the nameplate level. In late 2025, the most recent expansion at Cheniere’s Corpus Christi Terminal, Stage III, also began ramping online, and with these two projects, U.S. feedgas demand soared above 19 Bcf/d, as shown in Figure 2 below.Before we talk about what followed last winter and the longer-than-expected road from 19 Bcf/d to 20 Bcf/d, we first need to understand the seasonality of LNG demand. On a surface level, LNG exports have robust, year-round demand. But while it’s not as seasonal as residential or commercial demand, the seasonal swing has become more pronounced as U.S. export capacity has increased.  From an engineering perspective, LNG production is actually more efficient in the winter than in the summer. Essentially, the boosted efficiency allows operators to produce more LNG during the winter and long-term contracts are structured for higher production levels in the winter, which also coincides with the peak demand period in the end markets. LNG terminals also typically perform maintenance in spring or fall, which reduces feedgas intake (and output) compared with winter levels.  On top of the contractual lift, many U.S. terminals offer short-term sales, spot cargoes or additional production volumes. Some operators, like Cheniere and Venture Global, market those volumes themselves, while some offer them at a discounted rate to their existing customers. A number of different factors go into this, but in the end every U.S. terminal (except Corpus Christi, which had new capacity ramping online) saw feedgas demand peak at some point between November 2025 and April 2026 before dropping off over the spring.Let’s use Sabine Pass, the U.S.’s largest terminal, as an example. Its size makes the seasonal differences easy to see. In 2025, Sabine Pass exported just over 4 Bcf/d of LNG (dashed blue line in Figure 3 below), and feedgas demand (dashed green line) averaged just under 4.5 Bcf/d. This is consistent with full operations at the terminal. Excluding June 2025, when the terminal was down for maintenance, feedgas demand averaged 4.3 Bcf/d in spring and summer and 4.75 Bcf/d in the peak months. The delta between feedgas and volumes exported also does not stay consistent throughout the year. Not only is there seasonal variation in the losses but terminals also have LNG storage onsite that can be used to manage a terminal’s contractual obligations and short-lived feedgas disruptions from things like pipeline maintenance or extreme weather events.  All else being equal, U.S. feedgas demand follows a similar pattern, but projects ramping online also increase feedgas demand. So far this year, the peak was in April, when feedgas averaged 19.31 Bcf/d for the month. The high number was driven by a combination of lingering winter peak demand and ramping feedgas from commissioning terminals. May was this year's low point because of maintenance at Cameron LNG (light-green layer in Figure 4 below) and declines elsewhere, with feedgas averaging just 17.31 Bcf/d. Freeport (dark-blue layer) and Cove Point (light-blue layer) also took major maintenance in either the summer or the fall, leaving at least one train offline for much of non-peak season. The exact floor for each terminal varied depending on maintenance schedules and other factors, but in general average feedgas demand was below 18 Bcf/d from May through August and around 18.5 Bcf/d in September (dashed red box). The limited lift from Corpus Christi Stage III’s remaining ramp up (light-blue layer), which was placed fully into service in August, was outweighed by maintenance and lower seasonal demand.There is one more terminal that has been a factor in both the ramp up in April and the long wait between 19 Bcf/d and 20 Bcf/d — Golden Pass LNG (dark-green layer at top of Figure 4). Golden Pass is the U.S.’s next export terminal but its path to startup has been anything but smooth. The project’s development started with the first wave of LNG, but stalled out again and again before finally reaching FID in 2019. The project, backed by ExxonMobil and QatarEnergy, will have three liquefaction trains and an export capacity of around 2.1 Bcf/d when complete. However, the project faced a number of construction delays, most notably from the bankruptcy of its former engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) partner, Zachary Holdings, and Train 1 did not begin commissioning until late 2025.Feedgas demand at the terminal was near zero at the start of this year and then ramped just above 300 MMcf/d by April and exported its first commissioning cargo on April 22 before stalling out. Train 1 will require between 800-850 MMcf/d at full operations. The terminal has exported commissioning cargoes since April, with one or two per month since then. We should note here that when large-scale liquefaction projects ramp online, a train typically produces one to three commissioning cargoes before the EPC contractor hands it over to the terminal operator and it enters full operations. The Golden Pass project’s developers have been tight-lipped about what's happening at the terminal and when they expect Train 1 to enter service. In the meantime, construction on Train 2 has continued and it is expected to achieve mechanical completion at the end of this year and begin ramping online early next year, with Train 3 expected to follow later next year.Between April and the end of September, feedgas to the commissioning train averaged 300 MMcf/d, with periods when feedgas briefly reached 500 MMcf/d and periods when the terminal took little to no feedgas. While feedgas demand at the terminal continues to be somewhat bumpy, it is trending higher and October has seen record intake days, reaching as high as 690 MMcf/d. The bump up in feedgas from Golden Pass is one of the primary factors behind both reaching 20 Bcf/d and the longer-than-expected road to that milestone.Beyond Golden Pass coming online, the end of maintenance season and the start of peak demand season have pushed U.S. feedgas demand to new heights. This record is unlikely to hold for very long, as we’re almost certainly heading straight into another record-breaking winter. There is more capacity available this year than last with all of Corpus Christi Stage III and some of Golden Pass operational. On top of that, Europe’s low gas storage inventories and the curtailed production in Qatar from the war in Iran will keep demand for U.S. LNG high during the peak demand period.Beyond this winter there is even more LNG coming. More trains at Golden Pass, plus three new terminals will all begin ramping online next year. Venture Global pushed forward the timeline for its next project, CP2, and now expects to begin exporting from the terminal in the second half of 2027. Sempra’s Port Arthur LNG (green-and-white diamond in Figure 1) and NextDecade’s Rio Grande LNG (blue-and-white diamond) are also expected to begin commissioning late next year, meaning that 2027 will be another massive year for LNG growth and we still have more record-setting winters ahead of us.

Woodside’s Louisiana LNG Buildout 32% Complete, but Steel Supply Risks Linger -The first liquefaction train at Woodside Energy’s Louisiana LNG project is 41% complete, the company announced Wednesday. At a Glance:

• Project is 32% complete overall
• Trains 2 and 3 progressing as well
• Company working through supply chain issues

Gulf Coast Natural Gas Buyers Seek Firmer Pipeline Access as LNG Demand Grows - Growing LNG export demand is eroding pipeline flexibility across the Gulf Coast, pushing natural gas utilities and end-users to rethink how they secure supplies as competition for transportation capacity intensifies.NGI chart comparing daily natural gas prices at Henry Hub, Texas Eastern Western Louisiana and Southern Natural from March to October 2026. Southern Natural spikes above $7/MMBtu in early September, while the other hubs remain near $3. At a Glance:

• Southeast gas premiums widen year/year
• Plaquemines feedgas averages 4.07 Bcf/d in October
• Entergy seeks firm transportation coverage

Cheniere Inks Long-Term LNG Deal With QatarEnergy - QatarEnergy has agreed to purchase 4 Mt/y of LNG from Cheniere Energy through 2054, expanding its ties to US export supplies as damage to production facilities in Qatar continues to disrupt contracted cargoes. At a Glance:

• Deliveries expected to begin in 2031
• Sabine Pass expansion FID targeted for 2027
• Gulf Coast gas transportation additions planned

QatarEnergy’s US LNG Portfolio Gains Importance as France Secures Winter Supply - France has anchored winter LNG supply commitments from Qatar as below-average natural gas storage and an approaching ban on Russian imports intensify competition for US spot volumes. At a Glance:

• EU storage trails five-year average
• Russian LNG ban begins January 2027
• Qatar seeks US replacement supplies

Our Molecules to the Middle East: Qatar Buys U.S. LNG Thru 2054-  Here’s a sentence we never thought we’d write: Qatar is buying American LNG. Qatar sits on top of the world’s largest natural gas field and, until this year, was one of the two or three biggest LNG exporters on the planet. Yet this week Cheniere Energy announced two long-term deals to supply state-owned QatarEnergy with 4 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of LNG through 2054. Half of it will come from Cheniere’s Sabine Pass export plant in Louisiana. And Sabine Pass is a place where Marcellus/Utica gas has been showing up for years. Translation: some of the gas drilled in PA, OH, and WV will very likely end up owned by a Middle East country, which will resell it around the world. Who’d a thunk it?

The Breakout – Permitting Reform Bill Aims to Break the Logjam for Energy Infrastructure Projects | RBN Energy -Building any type of energy infrastructure can be a heavy lift, but getting permission to do it can take even longer. Years of environmental reviews, agency coordination and courtroom battles have delayed projects and driven up costs. Now, Congress is considering another permitting overhaul that could shorten reviews, curb legal uncertainty and give all kinds of energy-related projects a boost. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at the major themes of the permitting reform bill being considered by Congress, how it would change the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), and how it could make it easier to build or expand oil and gas pipelines.The permitting process for major energy projects is a well-known problem that we’ve written about extensively over the years. The issue has slowed a number of oil- or gas-related projects, most famously the long-delayed Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP), while also impacting the development process for everything from long-distance transmission lines and large-scale wind and solar projects to the production of metals and critical minerals essential for many energy projects. So, if it has taken a decade or more to get final approval for some projects, with MVP even requiring an act of Congress, it shouldn’t be a great surprise that reforms to the permitting process itself would be slow moving too.Changes to the permitting process came with 2023’s Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA), which suspended the federal debt ceiling through January 1, 2025, but also addressed immediate priorities in federal permitting for energy and infrastructure projects and expedited MVP’s completion. Most importantly for our discussion today, it reformed the way NEPA operates, streamlining the review process through clearer assessment thresholds, designated lead agencies, applicant-prepared documents, deadlines, page limits, consolidated analyses and broader categorical exclusions, while preserving agency oversight and public comment procedures. (Some changes were also included in 2025’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act.) Helpful as those changes may be, they were only the first steps toward more significant reforms. As we wrote in Rescue Me, the FRA’s passage appeared at the time as if it might clear a path for additional legislation. That has yet to happen, but that could be changing soon. The Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 (BAAJA) was introduced in the Senate in September and a procedural vote is expected sometime after the midterm elections on November 3. It appears to have strong bipartisan support in the Senate, although passage in the narrowly divided House — required for the bill to move forward — seems less certain. The White House has said it supports the bill, although its treatment of wind and solar projects has been a major point of contention with Democrats in Congress. In a move that could complicate the bill’s passage, the Trump administration asked a federal court on October 9 to reassess the 2023 approval of the 704-MW Revolution Wind Project, which is expected to begin full commercial operation later this year. The project, located off the Rhode Island coast, began sending power to the grid in March and the last of its 65 turbines was installed in September.The BAAJA includes a number of significant changes related to NEPA (see Figure 1 below), including making more projects exempt from it, reducing the amount of duplicative analysis, doing more coordinated reviews, expressly codifying that NEPA is defined as a procedural process without mandating specific environmental outcomes, and broadening the use of categorical exclusions. A categorical exclusion is a class of actions that a federal agency has determined do not have a significant effect on the human environment and do not normally require an Environmental Assessment (EA) or Environmental Impact Statement (EIS).  Figure 1. Proposed NEPA Changes Under Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act.  In addition to the NEPA reforms, the bill includes two other significant changes to the permitting process:

• Firmer review and decision deadlines. The proposal retains the general one-year deadline for an EA and the two-year deadline for an EIS that were part of the FRA, while adding deadlines for subsequent decisions. The one- and two-year review limits already exist in current law; the additional scheduling requirements are a key change.
• Tighter limits on lawsuits and remedies. NEPA challenges generally would have to be filed within 150 days, go directly to federal appeals courts, and come from parties that raised the relevant issue during that process. For NEPA violations, courts generally would send the authorization back for correction without invalidating it or issuing an injunction, with corrections due within 180 days.

The proposed permitting overhaul would make many other changes as well. Clean Water Act revisions would narrow state certification reviews, establish firmer deadlines, lengthen certain permit terms and limit the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) veto window. Endangered Species Act changes would accelerate consultations, coordinate them with NEPA and expand state participation. Project-certainty provisions would restrict permit reversals and provide remedies for qualifying delays or discriminatory treatment. On the power side, the bill would expand the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s (FERC) transmission siting authority, strengthen regional planning and address cost allocation, generator interconnection and growing data center loads. Other provisions target drilling on nonfederal land, Tribal rights-of-way, renewables, mining, geothermal, hydropower, and offshore transmission. Historic-preservation reviews would get clearer timelines and closer NEPA coordination.For pipeline developers, the proposed NEPA changes could take some of the uncertainty out of getting projects from the drawing board into service. The biggest winners would likely be expansions of existing interstate natural gas systems, although the benefits would depend on where a project is built, which federal approvals it needs and whether it follows an existing corridor. When adding capacity to gas pipelines already in the ground, qualifying compressor additions, replacements, upgrades and pipeline looping (installing a parallel segment) would be exempt from NEPA review if they stay within the pipeline’s defined existing corridor or previously reviewed footprint, and can extend to adjacent areas for some activities. That could give developers a reason to expand an existing system instead of pursuing a new route.New pipelines requiring NEPA review could also benefit. Clearer deadlines, better coordination among agencies and greater use of existing environmental studies could make permitting schedules more predictable. A quicker deadline would require a decision, however, without assuring developers of a favorable one. Then there’s the litigation risk. A 150-day filing window and direct appeals-court review would shorten the period for NEPA challenges. Courts would generally leave authorizations in place while agencies fix review deficiencies, potentially reducing construction interruptions like those that plagued MVP.For oil pipelines, the benefits would be more project-specific. FERC approves interstate natural gas pipeline construction but does not oversee oil pipeline construction. Oil projects needing federal permits or land approvals could benefit from the reforms; those relying primarily on state approvals would see less direct impact.It’s important to note that permitting reform could help pipeline developers move projects along, but there would still be plenty of hurdles between a proposed line and its first deliveries. Start with the commercial side: Developers would still need customers willing to sign transportation contracts, lenders willing to provide financing and enough expected throughput to make the economics work. Faster environmental reviews alone won’t put those pieces together. The certificate policy under the Natural Gas Act of 1938 and FERC’s 1999 Statement of Policy still require a showing of “public convenience and necessity,’” showing the project is needed. Then there’s the route itself. Easement negotiations, landowner compensation and eminent-domain disputes would remain potential sticking points, along with applicable state and local approvals. The bill would change state water-quality certification procedures, but it would not roll every permit into a single federal green light. Environmental compliance would remain too, including Clean Water Act and Clean Air Act requirements expressly preserved by the existing-gas-corridor exemption.That exemption also has boundaries. Qualifying activities such as capacity additions, optimizations and upgrades within existing corridors or previously reviewed footprints would no longer count as a major action triggering a NEPA review, while pipelines following entirely new routes would still face applicable reviews. And although the bill would narrow the window for NEPA challenges, it would not eliminate every lawsuit, resolve community opposition or guarantee available crews and equipment. In short, a faster permitting decision could still be a “no.”For pipeline developers, the proposed reforms could mean fewer permitting detours, more predictable schedules and less risk that courtroom setbacks will derail construction. Expanding existing interstate gas systems could become especially attractive. Still, permitting is only part of building a project. Customers, financing, land rights and construction economics remain essential. Congress could help clear the path, but developers would still have plenty of ground left to cover.

FERC Blanket Rule Could Let LNG Plants Add a Train in 90 Days -- Marcellus Drilling News --  Last Thursday, in a unanimous 5-0 vote, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) proposed something it has twice before refused to do: create a “blanket” authorization program for LNG plants. That’s regulatory-speak for letting LNG export terminals (and the smaller LNG “peak shaver” storage plants up here in the Northeast) make upgrades, swap out equipment, boost capacity, and even build new liquefaction trains, tanks, and marine berths without begging FERC for a separate, case-by-case order each time. Interstate pipelines have had a blanket program like this since 1982. LNG never did. FERC Chairman Laura Swett called it “historic,” and for once the word fits. The proposal is a notice of proposed rulemaking (NOPR), not a final rule, and the usual suspects are already lining up against it, including nine blue-state attorneys general. But if it goes through, more gas gets out the door faster, and that’s good news for the Marcellus/Utica.

EIA Reports 77 Bcf Weekly Build in Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage - The Energy Information Administration reported that working gas in underground storage across the Lower 48 states stood at 3,644 billion cubic feet as of Friday, October 16, 2026, according to the agency's weekly storage report released October 22. The EIA data showed a net increase of 77 Bcf from the prior week, when stocks totaled 3,567 Bcf. Stocks remained below year-ago levels, running 152 Bcf under the 3,796 Bcf recorded on October 16, 2025, a decline of 4.0 percent. Inventories held 35 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,609 Bcf, a 1.0 percent premium, and the agency noted that total working gas is within the five-year historical range spanning 2021 through 2025. Regional Breakdown The East region posted 900 Bcf, up 16 Bcf on the week, 0.3 percent above the year-ago level of 897 Bcf and 2.7 percent above the five-year average of 876 Bcf. The Midwest rose 28 Bcf to 1,065 Bcf, 0.9 percent above the prior-year 1,056 Bcf and 2.0 percent above the five-year average of 1,044 Bcf.  The Mountain region added 2 Bcf to reach 257 Bcf, which was 8.9 percent below the year-ago 282 Bcf and 4.5 percent above the five-year average of 246 Bcf. The Pacific region increased 3 Bcf to 297 Bcf, 4.2 percent below the prior-year 310 Bcf and 6.5 percent above the five-year average of 279 Bcf. The South Central region gained 28 Bcf to 1,125 Bcf, 10.0 percent below the year-ago 1,250 Bcf and 3.4 percent below the five-year average of 1,165 Bcf. Within that region, salt storage rose 15 Bcf to 251 Bcf, down 21.1 percent from 318 Bcf a year earlier and 14.9 percent below the five-year average of 295 Bcf. Nonsalt storage added 14 Bcf to 875 Bcf, 6.2 percent below the prior-year 933 Bcf and 0.5 percent above the five-year average of 871 Bcf.

Wall Street Is Betting Big Against Natural Gas as a Mild Winter Looms - 24/7 Wall St. As of October 20, 2026, speculators held 505,747 short contracts in NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas against 264,475 longs. That left a net short of 241,272, the largest since February 11, 2020, in Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released Friday, October 23. Gas fell sharply on warm forecasts. United States Natural Gas Fund dropped 3.13% to $9.58. EQT rose 1.76%, and Expand Energy gained 0.29%. If you own any of these, that split matters. When a short trade gets this crowded, it can reverse quickly, and a futures fund is an expensive place to wait for that. A net short means traders have sold more futures than they bought, so they profit when prices fall. The net short fell from 233,578 a week earlier, though it remains below the all-time high of 262,061 set June 9, 2015. Hedge funds cut longs by 24,641 and added 6,287 shorts. Their net short rose to 157,409 from 126,481, the largest since February 20, 2024. Our analysis puts managed-money shorts across seven benchmark contracts at 569,954, the second-highest level since August 2013. Short sellers must buy contracts back to close out, and if a cold snap forces many to buy back at once, their buying can push prices up sharply. November gas settled at $3.116 on October 16, then at $2.790 on October 21 and $2.796 on October 22. It was trading near $2.63 late Friday. That works out to a weekly drop of roughly 15% to 16%, about 22% over a month and about 34% over a year. December, the next contract to become the front month, slipped from $3.386 to about $3.05. The government’s winter outlook expects a very strong El Niño to bring warmer weather across the northern U.S., the Midwest and much of the East. Ken Graham, who runs the National Weather Service, said: “a very strong El Niño will likely bring a southward and eastward shift to the jet stream.” Short-range maps put the odds of above-normal warmth from October 29 to November 2 at 70% to 80% across the Southeast. Phil Flynn of Price Futures Group said prices are “going up and down with the weather right now.” The market ignored a bullish storage report. Inventories rose by 77 Bcf, below the 79 Bcf analysts expected, the 86 Bcf added a year earlier, and the five-year average of 87 Bcf. Storage now stands only 1.0% above the five-year average and 4.0% below last year. Output has eased to about 111.4 Bcf/d from a record 113.3 Bcf/d. Meanwhile, gas flowing to export terminals rose to about 18.2 Bcf/d. Tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz keep European prices high, which keeps demand for U.S. shipments strong. Robert DiDona of Energy Ventures Analysis still sees “not much of a reason here for us to be very bullish.” In the near term, the weather will likely matter more than these supply numbers.

Frac Spread Shifts Into High Gear in October | RBN Energy - The frac spread, which compares the value of a typical Mont Belvieu NGL barrel with Henry Hub natural gas on an MMBtu basis, reached $7.80/MMBtu on October 19, up 36% from $5.74/MMBtu a month earlier. NGL prices did the heavy lifting, rising 26% over the past month, while natural gas gained just 5%. Through October 19, the frac spread is averaging $6.95/MMBtu, more than double the $3.16/MMBtu averaged in October 2025.Butanes have led the way so far in October, with normal butane (dark blue bars) rising to $1.41/MMBtu from $1.03/MMBtu in September and isobutane (light blue bars) rising to $0.93/MMBtu from $0.67/MMBtu, together accounting for nearly half of the frac spread’s increase from September. Propane (purple bars) remains the largest piece of the spread at $2.32/MMBtu. WTI is averaging $94/bbl so far in October, up from $60/bbl a year ago, while Henry Hub natural gas is averaging $3.14/MMBtu, below its October 2025 average of $3.31/MMBtu. If those conditions hold, NGLs should keep the spread wide.

Don’t Stop ’Til You Get Enough – Are We Building Enough Gas Pipeline Capacity East Out of Katy? | RBN Energy -The volumes of Permian natural gas flowing into the Katy area west of Houston will be increasing sharply over the next few years, as will gas demand from new and expanding LNG export terminals near the Texas/Louisiana border. Three new pipelines with a combined capacity of 8 Bcf/d — Blackfin, Trident and Mustang Express — are being developed to move gas from Katy to the state line, but will that be enough? In today’s blog, we’ll use RBN’s Arrow Model to assess Enbridge’s recently unveiled proposal to add up to 2 Bcf/d of incremental capacity from Katy to the Gillis Hub in southwestern Louisiana.We have blogged extensively over the past few years about three critically important and intertwined topics: fast-rising production of associated gas in the Permian, the massive buildout of new LNG export capacity along the Gulf Coast, and the frenetic development of gas pipeline capacity from Permian wells to water. Much of the discussion has focused on takeaway pipelines out of West Texas to the Agua Dulce Hub in South Texas and the Katy Hub — most recently, we looked at the record-busting plan by a WhiteWater Midstream-led consortium to build the 4.5-Bcf/d Solitude Pipeline, which will consist of twin 48-inch-diameter pipes from the Waha Hub to the Katy area. But getting Permian gas to inland hubs like Katy and Agua Dulce — or to the Dallas/Fort Worth area, like Energy Transfer’s Hugh Brinson Pipeline — addresses only part of the challenge. The other part is, how do you get gas from there to where it’s demanded most, namely to LNG export terminals along the Gulf Coast between Port Arthur, TX, and Cameron Parish in the southwestern corner of Louisiana. Within that 40-mile stretch, about 59 MMtpa (~6.7 Bcf/d) of LNG export capacity is in operation and another 86 MMtpa (~9.4 Bcf/d) has reached a final investment decision (FID) and is either under construction or will be soon.Sure, a sizable portion of that gas demand from existing and planned LNG export terminals will be met by the Haynesville Shale in northwestern Louisiana and northeastern Texas, but while Haynesville gas is produced at a relatively high cost, gas from the Permian is produced as a no-cost byproduct of crude oil-focused drilling and needs to find a home.Midstream developers have been working hard the past couple of years to advance pipeline projects to transport more gas from the Katy area to Port Arthur and beyond. For example:

• A joint venture of WhiteWater Midstream and LNG exporter Venture Global is building the 3.5-Bcf/d Blackfin Pipeline (dashed purple line in Figure 1 below) from Colorado County, TX, (just west of Katy) to Jasper County, TX, near the Texas/Louisiana line. Blackfin is slated to start up in Q4 2026 or Q1 2027. It will connect in Jasper County with CP Express (dashed orange line), a 2.2-Bcf/d interstate line being built to supply feedgas to the CP2 LNG facility just across the border in Cameron Parish.
• Kinder Morgan is constructing the 2-Bcf/d Trident Pipeline (dashed dark-red line) from Katy to the Port Arthur area; it expects to finish Phase 1 (1.5 Bcf/d) in Q1 2027 and a 500-MMcf/d expansion (Phase 2) in Q4 2028.
• ARM Energy and PIMCO are jointly developing the 2.5-Bcf/d Mustang Express pipeline (dashed blue line), which by late 2029 or early 2030 will move gas from just west of Katy to the Port Arthur area.

These three new pipelines will help supply the existing and planned LNG export terminals (yellow and striped-white diamonds, respectively), but questions remain about whether their combined capacity will be sufficient as the buildout of new LNG export projects continues. In response, Enbridge announced on October 13 that its Texas Eastern Transmission pipeline system (aka TETCO or Texas Eastern) has launched a non-binding open season for what it calls the Katy-to-Gillis Expansion project, which Enbridge said could add as much as 2 Bcf/d of incremental capacity between Katy and the growing Louisiana demand markets.In a statement, Enbridge said the prospective Katy-to-Gillis project would be developed in collaboration with ARM Energy’s Mustang Express and “would create a seamless transportation path between Katy and Gillis by combining transportation services on the Mustang Express and (TETCO) systems.” Caitlin Tessin, Enbridge’s vice president for commercial gas transmission, called the prospective project “the missing puzzle piece connecting gas molecules arriving at Katy with key demand markets in Gillis,” a hub vital to supplying gas to Sabine Pass-area LNG export terminals.In its announcement, Enbridge said: “Final capacity, receipt and delivery points, facility design and service structures will be informed by market interest received during the open season,” which runs to October 30. “Subject to securing sufficient commercial support and obtaining required approvals, the project is targeting an early 2031 in-service date.”As shown by the red arrows in the map Enbridge provided with its open-season announcement (Figure 2 below), the project could add as much as 2 Bcf/d of eastbound capacity from Katy to Vidor, TX, one of two termini of Mustang Express (dashed purple line; the other leg runs to Port Arthur LNG) as well as more capacity — maybe bidirectional — along the Texas Eastern corridor between Vidor and the Gillis Hub in southwestern Louisiana.We should note here that Enbridge’s TETCO system runs along much of this same corridor, and that the company envisions expansions to parts of that run of pipe, most likely through a combination of compression and the looping of existing pipe between Vidor and Gillis.So, what does RBN’s Arrow Model tell us about existing and expected pipeline flows in the area? As we said in All Shook Up, the Arrow Model — available to subscribers to our monthly Arrow Model Report — is a comprehensive analytical tool that explains shifting natural gas flows and market dynamics in Texas and Louisiana. More specifically, the model carves the Texas/Louisiana region into pipeline “corridors” that can be used to assess changes in the region’s inflows, outflows and flows within each state via groups of pipes that serve similar markets from comparable supply sources.As shown in Figure 3 below, these pipeline corridors (green arrows) are aggregations of dozens of pipelines connecting 15 market hubs (black dots), some within the two states and others outside the region. There also are six more corridors that track export volumes from LNG terminals, through which gas exits Texas and Louisiana in liquefied form on LNG carriers (dark-blue and light-blue arrows, respectively). The red arrows show gas exports to Mexico.The attributes of each arrow include capacities, historical flows, projected flows, constraints and other factors. The net flows for each arrow move in the direction indicated by the arrow, but they can (and do) flip around over time when modeled market conditions dictate.Our analysis today focuses on Corridor V (“V” in orange circle in Figure 3) — that is, the group of existing and planned pipelines in the Greater Houston area between Katy and the Texas/Louisiana border. We compared the expected lay of the land with and without Enbridge’s prospective addition of 2 Bcf/d of capacity between Katy and southwestern Louisiana.Currently, this is one of the more congested corridors in the two-state region, and most, if not all, of the capacity additions from Blackfin/CP Express, Trident and Mustang Express will be highly utilized as new LNG export capacity comes online. The orange line in Figure 4 below shows the expected increase in west-to-east flows along Corridor V as this new LNG — and pipeline — capacity comes online; the green line, in turn, shows the slightly higher flows along the corridor if Enbridge were to add up to 2 Bcf/d there starting in 2031. With the new capacity, flows would average about 400 MMcf/d higher during the 2031-37 period; the impact is most pronounced in 2034, when flows are about 700 MMcf/d higher than without the expansion.Put simply, with Enbridge’s proposed expansion, a relatively congested corridor between Katy and the state line would become much less so and Houston Ship Channel (HSC) gas prices would strengthen relative to Henry Hub by the mid-2030s.We should note that even with the Enbridge expansion, congestion along Corridor V could return if developers decide to add still more LNG export capacity between Port Arthur and Cameron Parish than has already reached FID. RBN’s LNG Voyager report lists at least one project in the area — a 6.7-MMtpa (900 MMcf/d) expansion at Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass LNG — as being very possible, and a few others as having at least a chance to move forward too.

Trump releases heating oil to the Northeast to reduce surging prices - The Trump administration announced Wednesday that it will release up to one-third of the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve in a bid to lower the cost of the fuel as winter looms — and as Maine’s bitter Senate race hangs in the balance. The announcement comes as Republican Sen. Susan Collins makes a case to Maine voters amid a tight reelection contest that her years of experience in Congress show she can deliver for them. Democratic challenger Troy Jackson said she should have done more to end the U.S. war with Iran that led to the price surge. The race is one of a handful across the country that could determine whether Republicans or Democrats control the Senate next year. About 3% of U.S. households rely on heating oil, mostly concentrated in the Northeast, especially in Maine, where Collins and independent Sen. Angus King have both been pushing for a release from the reserve. The average cost of a gallon of heating oil in the United States is $6.14, according to the most recent Energy Information Administration data. That’s more than double the price a year ago, which was $2.60. In New England, the average price is $6.08. “I have repeatedly urged the administration to use every tool to increase supply and lower energy prices,” Collins said in a statement from the Senate Appropriations Committee, which she chairs. “The Department anticipates this release will put downward pressure on home heating oil costs and make a real difference for Maine homeowners as they prepare for winter.” Jackson said she could have voted with Democrats in the Senate to force President Donald Trump to end the war he launched against Iran in February that has since spread through the Middle East, causing oil and fuel prices to increase. “Two weeks before Election Day, she wants Mainers to believe she’s coming to the rescue,” Jackson said in a statement Wednesday. “Susan Collins is like an arsonist who sets the house on fire and then wants credit for bringing you a cup of water.” In the announcement today, the Department of Energy said it has released a Request for Proposal for an exchange of up to 315,000 barrels of fuel oil from the reserve. Under the terms of the exchange, borrowing companies must return the same volume of fuel oil plus a premium, ensuring that the reserve is refilled ahead of next year’s heating season. “The Trump Administration is committed to doing everything in our power to lower energy costs for the American people,” Energy Secretary Chris Wright said in a statement. Wright stressed that the release was a “temporary measure” to alleviate a supply disruption and said that Democratic leaders in the Northeast should join the push for a new natural gas pipeline that would help the region shift away from expensive heating oil.

Trump's diesel price relief efforts grow costlier as election nears (Reuters) - With the November midterm elections fast approaching, President Donald Trump is throwing an array of costly and politically fraught solutions at one stubborn problem: the price of diesel. His administration has offered billions of dollars to farmers, relaxed rules for truckers, eased sanctions on Russian ​fuel and pressured European allies to release emergency stocks. Yet diesel prices rose again last week, leaving Trump spending political and financial capital without delivering the relief his party wants as voters go to ‌the polls. Republicans are defending narrow majorities in Congress, and high costs are a major concern for voters. Nearly 80% of Americans blame Trump for higher costs, according to an October Reuters/Ipsos poll. US diesel prices rose nearly 10 cents a gallon in the latest week to an average of $6.28, reversing two weeks of declines and remaining near record highs, according to the Energy Information Administration. Diesel in the last two months has become a central issue not only in the midterms but as a catalyst driving up already-elevated US inflation. The fuel is critical for farmers, construction companies, freight operators ​and more, and government data last week showed its rise was partly behind hefty increases in delivery costs, early-stage food production costs and even toy prices. The political pressure is particularly acute in traditionally Republican Farm Belt states like Iowa ​and Kansas, where rising fuel and fertilizer costs, trade disruptions and weak farm economics have fueled discontent among some of Trump's core supporters. Trump has promoted his diesel measures at campaign rallies across ⁠the region. He signed an executive order onstage in Nebraska allowing red-dyed diesel to be used in highway vehicles and announced $8 billion in new farm aid during a rally in Kansas on Monday. The measures illustrate the trade-offs Trump is accepting in ​pursuit of near-term relief. The new aid adds fresh strain on federal spending, while the Russian fuel move risks helping Moscow finance its war in Ukraine. Pressure on European allies to release emergency stocks, backed by a threat to restrict US diesel ​exports, has created diplomatic friction. 00:00 00:00 “The president tends to discount long-term losses over short-term gain, and I am skeptical if there is any short gain to be had here,” said Chris Borick, a pollster and political scientist at Muhlenberg College in Pennsylvania. The White House attributed high diesel prices to “pre-existing issues,” including years of refinery closures and damage from Russia's war with Ukraine.

How Much Additional Diesel Could Reach the Market? - Diesel has become the focus of an unusually coordinated diplomatic effort. That’s what J.P. Morgan analysts, including J.P. Morgan’s Head of Global Commodities Strategy Natasha Kaneva, said in a J.P. Morgan report sent to Rigzone recently. In the report, these analysts highlighted that, over the past couple of weeks, the G7 pledged to accelerate releases from emergency inventories, Washington reached an agreement with Moscow to facilitate Russian diesel exports, and U.S. President Donald Trump urged China to increase refined product supplies. “Together, these measures raise an obvious question: how much additional diesel could reach the market, and what would that mean for prices?” the analysts asked in the report. “The answer depends less on the size of the announcement than on the government’s willingness to deliver the promised barrels and, crucially, how much of this supply would be genuinely incremental,” they added. A G7 leaders’ statement published on the websites of the European Union and the President of France on October 2 revealed that the leaders of the G7 had convened a virtual meeting “to address the deepening challenges to our energy security”. “The G7 requests the IEA to monitor the immediate and full implementation of the March 2026 commitments,” that statement noted. “In this regard, taking into account commitments that have already been fulfilled, we will implement our commitments with a coordinated release through the IEA of 100 million barrels to begin immediately over four months, including a frontloaded substantial diesel release within the first 20 days by G7 members and partners,” it added. In a statement sent to Rigzone on October 7 by the International Energy Agency (IEA), IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol revealed that, in a meeting that week, IEA member governments “expressed support for accelerating the oil stock releases announced in the Collective Action of March 2026, with a view to completing them as soon as possible”. A statement posted on the IEA’s website on March 11 announced that the 32 member countries of the organization unanimously agreed to make 400 million barrels of oil from their emergency reserves available to the market “to address disruptions in oil markets stemming from the war in the Middle East”. In a statement posted on his Truth Social page on October 9, Trump said, “I have just concluded a highly successful discussion with President Vladimir Putin, of Russia, wherein it was agreed that Russia will immediately supply over 300,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel to the American and Global Marketplace, another 500,000 Tons during the month of November, and 1,000,000 Tons immediately thereafter”. “Additionally, based on the condition of their Diesel Refineries, Russia will then deliver, within a short period of time, 3,000,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel,” he added. In a statement posted on the President of Russia’s website on October 9, which was translated from Russian, Russian President Vladimir Putin said, “during a telephone conversation with U.S. President Donald Trump on October 9 … Russia confirmed its readiness to supply oil and petroleum products to the American and global markets”. A fact sheet posted on the White House website on September 25 highlighted that President Trump urged China’s President Xi “to increase production of refined petroleum products to stabilize global supply”. The J.P. Morgan analysts noted in their report that the European stock release could have the largest immediate effect, “particularly if a meaningful share constitutes diesel and deliveries are concentrated in the first 20 days”. “That is, of course, if Europe actually releases the barrels,” the analysts said. “So far, European governments have been reluctant to draw down emergency inventories, even as European oil stocks recovered to their spring levels by August,” they added. The analysts went on to state that the Russian agreement “is particularly interesting”. “Russia has continued to ship around 140,000 barrels per day of diesel by sea per month despite its export restrictions,” the analysts highlighted. “This raises the possibility that the agreement changes the legal status and destinations of Russian exports more than their overall volume,” they said. “In other words, the agreement could prove considerably more significant politically than in terms of additional barrels reaching the market,” they continued. The analysts also pointed out in the report that China “potentially has greater capacity to influence global diesel supplies than its current export quotas imply”. “Its refining system can respond to policy decisions, but the October‘s approval of 3.7 million tons of diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel combined is below September’s expected volume,” they said. “A meaningful increase in supply would require higher diesel-specific export allocations and potentially higher refinery runs,” they noted. The J.P. Morgan analysts went on to reveal in the report that, if all commitments are fully delivered, these measures could cover up to 80 percent of the diesel deficit from November through December, “materially easing market tightness”. “For now, the announcements are already helping to keep market sentiment in check,” the analyst said. “In Europe, the diesel-crude spreads have fallen 19 percent from a month ago, although they remain roughly 200 percent above pre-conflict levels,” they added. “If inventory releases and additional exports fail to materialize, however, the persistent supply shortfall, compounded by disrupted refining logistics and record freight rates, will likely keep pressure on product markets,” they warned.

Russia Launches First Diesel Tanker to U.S. as Drone-Hit Refineries Cast Doubt on Deal - The first 40,000-metric-ton Russian diesel shipment is underway under the Trump-Putin fuel pact, but drone-damaged refineries, bipartisan congressional opposition, and Ukraine's resumed refinery strikes raise grave doubts about the deal's staying power before the November 3 midterms. Briefing:

• Russia's Deputy PM Alexander Novak confirmed Wednesday that the first tanker — carrying 40,000 metric tons of diesel — departed Thursday under the Trump-Putin fuel supply agreement announced October 9, with the destination port still undisclosed.
• U.S. diesel crossed $6 a gallon for the first time ever on September 11 and stood at $6.28 as of October 19, making fuel costs a defining political liability with the November 3 midterm elections now less than two weeks away.
• Ukraine's resumed drone campaign against Russian refineries — which the IEA calculates were struck once every three days through August — and bipartisan congressional opposition cast serious doubt on Russia's ability to deliver diesel at the volumes promised.

A tanker loaded with 40,000 metric tons of Russian diesel cleared port Thursday as the opening delivery of a Trump-Putin fuel pact that has already fractured congressional alliances, enraged Kyiv, triggered and then shattered a short-lived energy ceasefire, and pulled global diesel prices down by 5 to 6 percent — before the first barrel reaches U.S. shores.Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told reporters Wednesday that the vessel would depart carrying 40,000 metric tons — roughly 300,000 barrels — of fuel, without identifying the departure port, the tanker's name, or the American terminal scheduled to receive the cargo. Putin, who that same afternoon held talks with U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff in St. Petersburg on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, described Russia as readying multiple tanker shipments and said Moscow could deliver fuel, in Novak's words, "to the extent of our capabilities" — a commitment that carries significant supply-side caveats given the state of the country's refining infrastructure. The supply contract governing the arrangement, Novak separately cautioned, was still being finalized, leaving the volume and timing of future deliveries undefined.President Trump announced the arrangement via Truth Social on October 9 following a phone call with Putin, declaring that Russia would immediately provide at least 300,000 metric tons of diesel to American and global markets — roughly 2.25 million barrels — with 500,000 additional tons pledged for November and 1 million tons immediately thereafter. Trump's post also projected 3 million metric tons in a further round, while Russian officials have said the country could eventually export up to 3.5 million metric tons per month.That same day, the Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued General License 135, a temporary authorization for Russian diesel transactions running through April 7, 2027 — a legal mechanism that bypasses the sanctions framework Congress assembled after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Russia, in turn, formally lifted its diesel export ban beginning October 10 — a restriction Moscow had imposed to contain domestic fuel shortages that months of Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries had helped deepen. During the St. Petersburg talks, Witkoff personally thanked Putin for rolling back the export limits; Putin credited the announcement with a 5 to 6 percent drop in global diesel prices.The arrangement carries a structural contradiction: the refining capacity Russia is promising to tap has been severely degraded by the same war that created the energy crisis being sold as the deal's justification.Ukraine's Ministry of Defence reported earlier this month that drone attacks had cut production at at least half of Russia's most productive diesel refineries, forcing across-the-board output cuts at plants that together supply a substantial share of the country's fuel.The International Energy Agency has quantified the pace of damage: Russian oil facilities were struck by Ukrainian drones once every three days on average through the first eight months of 2026. The IEA subsequently lowered its Russian refinery throughput forecast to approximately 4 million barrels per day — against nameplate capacity of 6.5 million barrels per day — citing compounding structural damage, sanctions-driven equipment shortfalls, and growing reliability risks across the network. The 250,000-barrel-per-day Moscow refinery, heavily struck in June, is expected to remain offline until at least early 2027.

U.S. Midwest Refiners Need Expanded Infrastructure to Move Their Surplus Capacity to Markets - U.S. Midwest refiners have large refineries that produce more gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel than the regional market can use, but they have limited pipeline and waterborne access to move surplus barrels to coastal markets. The Midwest has over 4.2 million barrels per day of refining capacity—24% of the U.S. total — and produces more gasoline and diesel than local populations consume. That contrasts with the East and West Coasts, where refining capacity has declined due to retirements, conversions, and closures. To fill the deficit, Midwest refiners want to replicate U.S. Gulf Coast refiners’ infrastructure and branch into East and West Coast markets. Expanding Buckeye Partners’ Laurel Pipeline system to the Atlantic Coast and building the proposed Western Gateway pipeline connecting Illinois to Los Angeles could open East and West Coast markets to them, providing needed petroleum supply and easing gasoline and diesel prices in coastal markets.Since 2000, the Midwest has gained 17% in overall refining capacity, due mainly to the availability of heavy crude oil from Western Canada. The Midwest now has more than 4.2 million barrels per day of refining capacity, including 1.5 million barrels per day in the four states closest to the East Coast (Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan and Ohio). Since 2000, refining capacity in the Northeast (primarily at 5 refineries in Delaware, New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania) has fallen by half, to about 900 thousand barrels per day due to lack of pipeline access to U.S. shale oil and to other events, such as a fire at the Philadelphia Energy Solutions refinery in Philadelphia, which led to its shutdown.After FERC approved regulatory and tariff filings on September 10, Buckeye Partners activated bi-directional refined product service on its Laurel Pipeline, which can move Midwest fuel from Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania into eastern Pennsylvania and upstate New York, adding up to 80,000 barrels per day of incremental capacity. The approval comes as Middle East supply disruptions have reduced gasoline exports from Europe and Eastern Canada to the U.S. East Coast. The Northeast also receives petroleum product supply from U.S. Gulf Coast refineries via the Colonial Pipeline. Citgo was the first refiner to publicly confirm on October 1 that it had begun shipping gasoline east from its Lemont, Illinois, refinery via the expanded Buckeye system.The Western Gateway pipeline is an estimated $5 billion project backed by Kinder Morgan, Phillips 66, and HF Sinclair to connect U.S. Midwest and Gulf Coast supplies to Arizona and California. California has been closing or converting refineries to biofuels, which has pushed gasoline and diesel prices $1.50 to $2.00 per gallon above the national average. The state has lost more than 30% of its refining capacity in five years. Recent refinery closures include Phillips 66’s Wilmington refinery in October 2025 and Valero’s Benicia plant in April 2026. The state increasingly relies on waterborne imports to fill the gap, importing 20% of its gasoline from Asian refiners and adding to higher costs. Middle East disruptions have recently reduced Asian supply, and West Coast gasoline inventories have remained below year-ago levels through the summer of 2026.Phillips 66, Kinder Morgan, and HF Sinclair made a final investment decision on August 11 to begin development of the 1,300-mile Western Gateway pipeline system, with a design capacity of 230,000 barrels per day. It is expected to be completed in 2029, subject to obtaining permits and regulatory approvals. Phillips 66 will construct and operate a new pipeline of about 900 miles from its Borger, Texas, refinery to Phoenix, Arizona, while its Gold Pipeline, after being reversed, will connect to the Explorer Pipeline and allow Midwest refined products to flow toward Borger. Kinder Morgan will reverse its existing SFPP West Line, running from Colton, California, to Phoenix, to move product east-to-west into California.Beyond helping California, the Western Gateway Pipeline will fill a gap in Arizona, as the state has no oil refineries of its own and much of its gasoline comes from California. The Western Gateway pipeline is expected to deliver up to 200,000 barrels of gas a day to Arizona, nearly double the amount Phoenix gets from an existing pipeline. Kinder Morgan has been operating in the state and across the West Coast for decades and owns several pipelines in Arizona.The Midwest has a firm supply of crude oil from western Canada and excess refinery capacity but lacks the infrastructure to move gasoline and diesel to East and West Coast markets, where refining capacity has declined due to retirements, conversions, and closures. To address the infrastructure gap, Buckeye Partners is expanding its Laurel Pipeline system to the East Coast, and the proposed Western Gateway pipeline will connect Illinois to Los Angeles, providing needed petroleum supply and easing gasoline and diesel prices in coastal markets. Buckeye Partners activated bi-directional refined product service on its Laurel Pipeline, moving Midwest fuel from Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania into eastern Pennsylvania and upstate New York. The Western Gateway pipeline creates a new fuel supply corridor originating from St. Louis, Missouri, and expanded Gulf Coast receipt points to the West Coast. Once it obtains permits and regulatory approvals, construction will begin, with an expected completion date of 2029.  These steps should improve the circulation of refined products in the United States and benefit consumers.

Deep-Sea Species Struggle to Recover After Deepwater Horizon Spill - -Across hundreds of miles of the northern Gulf of Mexico, a deep-water ecosystem collapsed after the massive 2011 Deepwater Horizon oil and gas spill, and recovery is uncertain, new research concludes.The study, published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, found that animal populations, including octopus, krill, squid and shrimp declined by 60 to 85 percent in the three-and-a-half years after the spill, with few signs of recovery since. Krill and lanternfish, both foundational species in the Gulf’s food web, were among the hardest hit. The findings also suggest that the die-off is causing genetic bottlenecks that could further hinder ecosystem recovery.The researchers identified it as the “fastest and most severe faunal decline reported for Earth’s largest ecosystem type” ever documented. The widespread die-off of marine organisms may also reduce the ocean’s ability to transport carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to the deep sea. After ruling out other factors, such as water temperature and oxygen levels, the researchers identified the Deepwater Horizon blowout as “the most parsimonious explanation” for the ecosystem’s collapse. Comprehensive natural resource damage assessments and restoration efforts involving federal, state and tribal trustees are still underway. In 2016, BP agreed to a $20.8 billion settlement, including up to $8.8 billion for environmental restoration.Remote ocean depths and habitats miles below the surface may seem buffered from the impacts of human activity, the authors wrote, but their findings suggest an industrial disaster pushed part of it into a diminished state with “limited resilience to facilitate recovery.” They said their findings also show that proposed industrial deep-sea mining could damage the ecosystem before baseline conditions are assessed.A Transoceanic drilling rig, operating for BP about 50 miles southeast of the Mississippi Delta, exploded on April 20, 2010. The explosion and fire killed 11 people and triggered the largest accidental marine oil spill in history. Oil and gas spewed uncontrollably from the broken well nearly a mile deep for 87 days, ejecting 4.9 million barrels of oil at a rate of about 400 tanker trucks per day, enough to fill up 1.2 million cars. The spill also released about 7.7 billion cubic feet of fossil gas into the deep sea at a rate of 88 million cubic feet per day, enough to supply about 820,000 U.S. homes. State and federal agencies, including the EPA, also authorized BP to apply 1.84 million gallons of chemical dispersants to try to reduce the impacts.Some of the oil and gas dissipated and was transported out of the deep Gulf of Mexico region. Some coated barrier islands and devastated coastal wetlands and shellfish habitat and some settled onto the ocean floor, where currents can stir it back into the water. But enough hydrocarbon and chemical-dispersant remnants stayed suspended long enough to do almost immeasurable harm.A series of studies since the spill have shown a wide range of toxic effects on marine organisms, from impaired development and reproduction to increased mortality and lasting health problems in dolphins and whales. The new paper suggests that lingering pollutants may interfere with some species’ ability to find mates in the dark by disrupting their highly developed sense of smell.

Crazy – Attacks, Altered Crude Flows, Unbalanced Fleets Push Tanker Freight Rates to Record Levels | RBN Energy - Freight rates are sky-high right now. Japanese oil major Cosmo Oil chartered a 2020-built Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) on October 8 to ship 2 MMbbl of crude oil from the U.S. Gulf Coast for $81 million, double September's market rate and about 5X a year ago. Higher rates show that freight, not the price of crude, has become the swing cost for moving Atlantic Basin barrels to the far east. In today's RBN blog, we look at the unique combination of factors, including new routes for Middle Eastern crude and increased purchases by China, that are helping drive freight rates to record highs. Here at RBN, we regularly track crude oil tanker voyages and freight rates, but this topic has rarely (if ever) made it into our blogosphere. That said, things have changed significantly this year— freight rates have been on a wild ride. To help make sense of it all, we turned to our friends at McQuilling Services, a U.S.-based shipping consultancy that tracks and forecasts the tanker market. The big picture: The jump in tanker rates, especially for VLCCs, isn't due to any single disruption. Instead, it's driven by a combination of stronger demand for long-haul crude shipments and a sharp drop in available vessels, with many contributing factors that have sent rates through the roof — and relief is not expected anytime soon. This is our first in a new series looking at freight rates.Before getting too far into the details, it’s worth explaining how tanker freight rates are measured. Shipping costs can be expressed in dollars per voyage or in Worldscale (WS) points, an industry-standard system that measures freight rates relative to a benchmark for a specific route. Worldscale 100 (WS100) represents the published benchmark freight rate for a route, while quotes above or below 100, referred to as “spot rates,” indicate a premium or discount to that benchmark.For example, if the published Worldscale benchmark rate is $20 per metric ton (MT):

• WS100 = $20/MT (100% of benchmark)
• WS150 = $30/MT (150% of benchmark)
• WS75 = $15/MT (75% of benchmark)

(Note: VLCC is mostly quoted in dollars and Aframax rates are commonly quoted in WS. Though lump-sum pricing is also used on some routes. Spot rates can then be distilled further to time charter equivalent (TCE) figures, which standardizes how much money a vessel earns per day after accounting for voyage-related costs, such as fuel, port charges, and canal fees for both laden and ballast legs.)The cost of a VLCC voyage from the Gulf Coast to Asia (red line and right axis in Figure 1 below) reached its highest point on record in early October, and most of that move has happened in just the last few weeks. Prior to the start of the War in Iran earlier this year, the voyage cost typically ranged between $8 million and $14 million. However, once the conflict began and the Strait of Hormuz closed, the range of reasonable freight rates became a thing of the past. VLCC costs doubled from $15 million the last week of February to nearly $30 million the first week of March, setting the first of many new record highs. From March through August, voyage costs generally ranged between about $18 million and $25 million, with some cooling off in June before momentum picked back up. In early October, the cost skyrocketed to more than $80 million. (That works out to roughly $40/bbl, compared with a historical norm of $4-$5/bbl.) The nearly $30 million voyage cost that seemed extraordinary in March — more than double the upper end of the prewar range — now looks modest. Rates have since eased off the record, with the VLCC voyage at $65.39 million as of October 19 — still nearly five times the top of the prewar range. The Aframax voyage from the USGC to Europe (blue line and left axis) has been choppier this year, but it reached WS1,000 on October 6, about 6X the year-ago rate, before easing to WS648.89 by October 19.On the tanker supply side, much of this year's market upheaval stems from conflicts involving Russia and Iran (see Go With The Flow). Attacks on vessels, sanctions and threats to key shipping lanes have made shipping riskier, forced costly detours, and reshaped how crude moves around the world. Oil tankers have also increasingly become strategic assets, with Middle Eastern oil majors aggressively acquiring VLCCs at prices exceeding $200 million per vessel, effectively removing these vessels from the spot market. Combined with port congestion, fleet inefficiencies from ship-to-ship (STS) transfers, and elevated drydocking activity, these developments have further tightened an already constrained fleet.On the tanker demand side, China’s crude imports have rebounded following the lifting of refined product export restrictions, while drone strikes on Russian oil export terminals (see Rock Bottom) have prompted buyers to seek alternative supplies. Meanwhile, Middle East barrels are increasingly rerouted via Saudi’s East-West Pipeline and Egypt’s SUMED Pipeline to the Mediterranean, while some cargoes bound for Asia must take longer voyages via Gibraltar and the Cape of Good Hope. These extended sailing distances increase ton-mile demand and vessel turnaround times, effectively absorbing additional tanker capacity and leaving fewer ships available for other cargoes. One major factor driving freight rates has been the disruption to Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline, which set off two chain reactions. First, Asian buyers had to replace Saudi crude previously exported through Yanbu with alternative grades, resulting in a surge of last-minute tanker bookings, particularly from Chinese refineries (more on that below). Second, Saudi Arabia, along with other Middle East suppliers, has redirected some crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz. According to Kpler’s AIS tracking, an average of 32 VLCCs exited the strait per week in October on a four-week moving average, approaching the 36 weekly transits recorded before the U.S.-Iran conflict. Although crude flow has yet to fully recover, tanker demand has risen sharply because extensive ship-to-ship transfers around Fujairah and Sohar, both major oil-shipping hubs just outside the Strait of Hormuz, have significantly reduced fleet efficiency. A voyage from inside the strait to Fujairah that once took about four days now requires 12–15 days, including waiting time and STS transfers.As a result, Sohar has become a busy hub. STS transfers, where cargo is moved from one vessel to another at sea (a common practice in areas like the U.S. Gulf Coast; see our weekly Crude Voyager report for more), are picking up there not only for crude but also for refined products such as naphtha and diesel. In August alone, 60 VLCC cargoes left Sohar this way. That pace slowed in September to 49 cargoes, after Iran stepped up attacks on commercial ships along the Omani route, with two vessels hit on September 11. Unlike STS operations associated with U.S. crude exports, where smaller tankers such as Aframaxes often transfer cargo to a VLCC to top it off, crude transfers in the Strait of Hormuz region can involve two VLCCs. In these cases, a VLCC typically controlled by a Middle Eastern oil producer transports the crude from the loading terminal to a lightering area outside of the Strait of Hormuz, where the cargo is transferred to another VLCC for delivery to its final destination. This arrangement allows the receiving vessel to avoid entering higher-risk waters but adds vessel time, costs and logistical complexity. As STS capacity near Fujairah and Sohar becomes increasingly constrained, some transfers are shifting to more distant locations, including offshore Malaysia, further reducing tanker fleet efficiency. For example, the 2016-built VLCC Maran Ariadne transferred its cargo to the 2009-built Sakuragawa offshore Malaysia on September 20. The combined operation required about 34 VLCC days to transport crude from Fujairah to Sakai, Japan, compared with 26 days for a direct voyage, adding about 31% vessel time and reducing transport efficiency.This alternative route has also added costs for crude suppliers and charterers, including additional war risk premiums (AWRP) for insurance and extra fees when ships are held longer than expected (demurrage). However, Middle East suppliers and Asian buyers remain incentivized to move these barrels, supported by Saudi official selling price (OSP) discounts and elevated delivered crude prices in Asia, leaving plenty of room to pay for expensive freight. Together, these factors gave the oil tanker market a boost at a time of year when it’s usually softer. McQuilling expects crude tanker freight rates to remain firm if Middle Eastern crude continues to rely heavily on STS operations.In addition, some of the 3-4 MMb/d that used to move through the Saudi port of Yanbu on the Red Sea coast, including cargoes headed to Europe, are reportedly going to Asia instead, generating longer voyage distances (as much as 2.5X) and increased tanker demand. Fujairah is seeing more liftings too. Since the United Arab Emirates (UAE) left OPEC earlier this year (see Canary in a Coal Mine), more crude has been arriving there, mostly via two routes that skip the usual path. The first is the Abu Dhabi crude pipeline, which can move about 1.5 MMb/d to Fujairah, with plans to double that by 2027. The second is the “dark” voyages along the Omani coast, where ships turn off their tracking signals.After the U.S.-Iran war broke out, China moved to keep domestic oil prices steady. It temporarily banned fuel exports, set mandatory run rates for independent “teapot” refiners and likely drew down commercial and strategic crude stocks. Crude imports fell sharply as state-owned refiners cut runs and the country stopped filling its strategic reserve. That started to change in August, when Beijing fully lifted the product export ban and issued August and September quotas that were higher than before the war (see Help!). Better margins have pushed refinery runs back up, particularly for diesel amid the global supply shortage, and have since encouraged refiners to increase runs, supporting a recovery in crude imports.Domestic demand is getting other boosts too, such as Golden Week, a major Chinese holiday period when millions of people travel, increasing demand for gasoline and jet fuel. Now, Shanghai crude futures are above Brent for the first time since May. On September 16, the October Shanghai crude contract traded at a record 838.6 yuan/bbl (or about $123/bbl), compared with roughly $106/bbl for Brent, a premium of about $17/bbl. China is also returning to seaborne Russian crude. Reuters reported that Sinopec, the state-owned oil major, bought at least 10 Aframax-sized cargoes of Russian ESPO crude a month from July through September after a temporary U.S. waiver. Looking ahead, a strengthening Chinese yuan against the U.S. dollar could further improve China's purchasing power for dollar-denominated crude, while rising per-capita incomes should provide additional support to domestic oil consumption. McQuilling therefore expects the recovery in Chinese crude imports to provide a significant tailwind to global crude tanker demand heading into 2027.In our second piece, we'll dig into why tanker supply is so tight: Russian export infrastructure under Ukrainian drone attack, 63 tankers disabled by strikes this year, a fleet bunched up in the Atlantic while East of Suez demand recovers, congestion backing up the Mediterranean, and a surge in VLCC dry dockings. Together, these are shrinking effective capacity and keeping freight rates elevated and relief looks far off until new ships arrive and Middle East crude stops leaning so heavily on ship-to-ship transfers.

Largest gas pipeline network in Northwest could grow as Oklahoma-based owners pursue expansion - The Oklahoma-based company that owns one of the largest gas pipeline networks in the Northwest is beginning to pursue permits to expand that network, and to pump more gas to the region to meet rising electricity demand. Pipeline company Williams, owner of the 4,000-mile long Northwest Pipeline system that brings fracked gas from Rocky Mountain states to Idaho, Washington and Oregon, last month submitted to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission paperwork to build a new pipeline called the Silver Spur between two existing gas transmission lines in Idaho and Nevada. The news was first reported by the nonprofit gas industry watchdog group Oil and Gas Watch. If approved, the 88-mile pipeline would carry up to 275 million additional standard cubic feet of natural gas per day to the Northwest, while states like Oregon and Washington simultaneously try to drive down gas consumption through policies and pollution caps meant to slow the growing threat of climate change. Environmental advocates say Williams’ claims that the pipeline is meant to meet overall demand for electricity growing in the region masks that the demand is being driven almost entirely by data centers. The Hood River-based nonprofit environmental organization is raising alarms about the proposed expansion with state officials and earlier this year led 20 organizations in calling on Washington and Oregon leaders to block fossil fuel expansion in the region. Two analyses from Columbia Riverkeeper and the Seattle-based think tank Sightline Institute show that a growing number of Northwest utility companies are spending on new gas-powered energy infrastructure or buying gas-powered energy from other states to power new demand coming almost exclusively from data centers. A recent analysis by ECOnorthwest found data centers today are responsible for nearly one-quarter of all power consumption in Oregon. A spokesperson for Williams on Thursday said the company does not disclose information about its customers, and that analyses show the Northwest will continue to need natural gas and more of it. “Natural gas remains a critical part of maintaining reliability as renewable energy and demand continues to grow,” they wrote. As part of the permitting process, FERC and other federal agencies will review the Silver Spur project, and eventually hold public meetings and comment periods. The company has said in interviews it plans to complete the pipeline in 2030. The pipeline expansion would be significantly more than the 150 million cubic feet per day that Canadian pipeline company TC Energy was approved to add to its Gas Transmission Northwest Express pipeline in 2023, and that got major pushback from the region’s Democratic leaders, including U.S. Sens. Ron Wyden and Jeff Merkley of Oregon and then-Gov. Jay Inslee of Washington.

Woodfibre LNG Moves Up Construction Target as Project Reaches 75% Completion- Woodfibre LNG disclosed construction of its British Columbia (BC) export facility is approximately 75% complete, advancing another source of natural gas demand toward startup as Western Canadian prices remain under pressure. At a Glance:

• Construction roughly 75% complete
• Commissioning targeted next year
• Project adds roughly 300 MMcf/d demand

Coastal GasLink Expansion Moves Forward With New Engineering Deal  -LNG Canada has awarded a contract worth more than $224 million to advance the second phase of the Coastal GasLink pipeline and nearly double natural gas transportation capacity following a final investment decision (FID) on the British Columbia export terminal's expansion.  At a Glance:

• Pipeline capacity expected to nearly double
• Construction targeted to begin in 2027
• Five new compressor stations planned

Canadian LPG Stocks Drop, Exiting September Below Normal Levels | RBN Energy - Western Canada saw large drops in LPG inventories in September, especially butanes, according to data released by the Canadian Energy Regulator on October 15. Butanes inventories in Western and Eastern Canada, and propane inventories in Eastern Canada, are below normal for this time of year, while Western Canada propane inventories are near normal for this time of year.Western Canadian propane inventories fell by 889 Mbbl month-over-month, to exit September at 6.92 MMbbl, or about 1% below the prior five year average for September (see left chart below), after exiting August above the prior five-year August high. In Eastern Canada, stocks gained 281 Mbbl month-over-month, but remain near prior five-year seasonal lows, exiting September at 3.1 MMbbl (right chart below).Butanes inventories in Western Canada saw an even steeper drop, declining by 1.12 MMbbl, to exit September at 3.75 MMbbl, which is 10% below the prior five-year average for September (see left chart below). The large decline in Western Canadian LPG stocks, and large 3.3 MMbbl build in Western Canadian inventories of NGL mix, may imply low utilization of Alberta fractionation capacity in September. Eastern Canada butanes inventories fell by 369 Mbbl to exit September at 2.91 MMbbl, which is 14% below the five-year average for September (see right chart below).

Amigo LNG Faces Environmental Review as US Exports to Mexico Dip  -US natural gas exports to Mexico are dipping heading into winter, even as new LNG projects and other demand drivers appear on the horizon. NGI chart comparing Agua Dulce and Waha natural gas bidweek prices with US pipeline exports to Mexico from October 2023 through October 2026. At a Glance:
ECA targets year-end startup
Permian underpins proposed export capacity
Henry Hub slips below $3/MMBtu

From Mexico to Argentina, AI Data Centers Fuel New Natural Gas Demand Prospects -  Latin American entrepreneurs are eyeing natural gas to support a growing data center buildout to support artificial intelligence (AI) across the region.  At a Glance:

• AI seen transforming regional energy markets
• Venezuela flares 2 Bcf/d of natural gas
• Colombia plans $180M LNG import project

Argentina LNG Targets 2027 Exports as Global Buyers Seek Supply Diversity - Argentina is on track to export its first LNG by the end of 2027, according to developer Southern Energy CCO Matias Lacabanne. At a Glance:

• Pipeline financing clears critical hurdle
• European buyer anchors long-term commitments
• Hilli Episeyo targets 2.45 Mt/y capacity

North American LNG Exports Gaining Leg Up as Middle East Outages Drag On -After more than seven months of Middle East LNG outages caused by the Iran war, North American export projects are getting a boost from buyers increasingly looking for supply diversity, according to developers. NGI chart projects North American LNG export capacity growth to 2033, highlighting Golden Pass, Rio Grande LNG and other major projects. At a Glance:
Buyers seeking diversity, security
Coastal Bend, Alaska LNG seeing more interest
Demand strengthening despite outages

US Feedgas Demand Surges, With Europe Claiming Bulk of Cargoes -NGI LNG export tracker shows US feedgas deliveries rebounding to 19.52 million Dth on Oct. 21, 2026, with flows to nine LNG terminals.  US LNG feedgas demand rebounded Wednesday, climbing about 1.3 Bcf/d from Tuesday, according to Entropic Analytics’ US Daily Supply & Demand Report. The gain reversed a one-day dip at Cameron LNG and Freeport LNG and left deliveries within about 250 MMcf/d of Sunday’s 20.7 Bcf/d, the highest daily level since at least early 2025. Feedgas demand averaged 20.1 Bcf/d over the latest seven days, up from about 19.1 Bcf/d the preceding week, as nominations resumed at Cove Point LNG and intake climbed at Sabine Pass and Plaquemines. Reported pipeline data may still be lagging behind intrastate flows. NGI estimates show about 2 Bcf/d of implied deliveries to Corpus Christi and Freeport through intrastate pipelines over the four weeks ended Oct. 18, with Corpus Christi

Mild Europe, Asia Forecasts Limit Weather-Driven Demand for US LNG - Weather forecasts Tuesday pointed to below-normal heating demand in Europe and a largely near-seasonal pattern in North Asia into early November, limiting weather-driven demand for US LNG.NGI charts compare daily mean temperatures with historical normals in Northwest Europe, Beijing, Seoul and Tokyo through Oct. 20, 2026. At a Glance:
European heating demand seen below normal
EU storage fill lowest in 5 years
North Asia weather near seasonal

EU gas storage levels below historical average: Commission - European Union gas storage levels are below the historical average, but the bloc does not currently face a security of supply issue despite the prospect of a difficult winter, European Commission spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen said Wednesday. Speaking at the midday press briefing, Itkonen said the EU was closely monitoring gas storage levels and holding more frequent coordination meetings with member states to assess the situation across the bloc. “On gas storage, we are lower than the historical average,” Itkonen said, noting that the issue was also discussed at last week’s European Council summit. “Despite the fact that we are headed for a difficult winter, we do not have a security supply issue, but the crisis in the Middle East is impacting energy prices, and this impacts then our gas storage levels,” she said. Itkonen also noted that the EU does not have legally mandated strategic gas stocks, raising the possibility of discussions on establishing strategic gas reserves. “This is something that we can start having a discussion about strategic gas reserves,” she said. Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are complicating efforts to replenish European inventories, while reduced LNG supplies from the Middle East are tightening the global market.

European Parliament Backs Longer Methane Rule Delay for LNG Importers - The European Parliament voted Thursday to delay significant methane reporting regulations for fossil fuel importers by three years after a lengthy campaign among the continent’s top suppliers that opposed next year’s deadline and warned they would not be able to comply.EU natural gas storage was 74.6% full at 844.56 TWh on Oct. 20, 2026, trailing the five-year average by 165.5 TWh.   At a Glance:
Parliament pushing for 3-year delay
Would extend timeline until 2031
Clarity sought on implementation

EU Policy Draft Softens Language on Arctic Drilling - The European Union looks to be relaxing its opposition to oil and gas production in polar areas, while still calling for all fossil fuels to be kept in the ground in its forthcoming Arctic strategy. A draft of the strategy, seen by Bloomberg, contains no references to a moratorium on new oil and gas drilling in the Arctic, marking a shift in wording from the EU's 2021 stance. The wording has been a topic of intense discussions between the trade bloc and Norway, which has lobbied hard for the EU to abandon its climate-based opposition to oil and gas exploration in the high north. The Nordic nation awarded five oil and gas exploration licenses in the Barents Sea, which is part of the Arctic, in last year's licensing round and opened up 38 blocks in 2026 for applications. Norway supplied almost a third of EU's gas imports last year, including a small part from those fields. The petroleum industry's fear was that the EU would pledge not to buy oil and gas from Norway's new Arctic fields. Instead, the draft says the union will "prioritize" renewable energy sources and hydrocarbons produced outside the Arctic. The European Commission also says it will work toward an international commitment to prevent further development of Arctic oil and gas resources, or purchases from them, when such activity "poses a threat to the Arctic ecosystem." In 2021, the EU had said that "building on the partial moratoriums on hydrocarbons exploration in the Arctic" in parts of the US, Canada and Greenland, "the EU is committed to ensuring that oil, coal and gas stay in the ground, including in Arctic regions" and that it would work toward "a multilateral legal obligation not to allow any further hydrocarbon reserve development in the Arctic or contiguous regions, nor to purchase such hydrocarbons if they were to be produced." The latest draft also reiterates the EU's broader commitment to work toward keeping coal, oil and gas in the ground, including in the Arctic, in line with its climate targets. The bloc has set a legally binding goal of cutting net greenhouse gas emissions by 90 percent by 2040 from the 1990 level. A spokesperson for Equinor ASA, which already produces oil and gas and is exploring more fields in the Barents Sea - referred questions to the Energy Department, and a spokesperson for the ministry declined to comment ahead of the strategy's release. Environmental groups said the changes don't amount to a significant retreat by Brussels. Paal Frisvold, who heads the Alliance to Preserve the Moratorium on Oil Drilling in the Arctic, told Bloomberg that he believes that the omission of the word moratorium makes the key message on climate stronger, adding "EU is determined to keep fossil fuels in the ground." The draft text also maintains the EU's opposition to deep-sea mining until scientific knowledge gaps have been "satisfactorily filled." Norway in 2024 approved seabed mining, although no such works have yet started.

Middle East Tensions Rise, Pushing Global Natural Gas Prices to Four-Year Highs -The possibility of the United States and Iran again trading attacks, along with escalating tensions elsewhere in the Middle East that are once again threatening a broader conflict, continued Monday to push global natural gas prices higher. NGI chart showing European Union natural gas storage at 843.65 TWh, or 74.5% full, on Oct. 17, 2026, up 14.1 TWh year over year but 163.8 TWh below the five-year average. At a Glance:

• EU inventories at 15-year low
• TTF-JKM spread narrows
• US feedgas deliveries hit record

Hormuz LNG Crossings Increase as Qatar Steps Up Dark Loadings - Qatar has stepped up dark loadings with LNG carriers taking on cargoes without transmitting signals that show their location as the country works to sell more of the super-chilled fuel amid a conflict that has impacted commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.Vessel tracking firm Kpler said it has detected an increase in the loadings at Qatar’s massive Ras Laffan Industrial City since late August by monitoring satellite imagery and tugboat movement. Two liquefaction trains at the complex were damaged by Iranian strikes earlier this year, knocking out about 17% of the country’s output.

LPG prices surge to Rs750 per kg in parts of KP amid supply shortages - Pakistan Observer  – The consumers across Pakistan are struggling with sharply rising liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) prices as supply disruptions push rates to Rs750 per kilogram in parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, with some cylinder prices exceeding Rs10,000. The situation has worsened over the past five to six days following a decline in LPG supplies, which officials have linked to the closure of the Taftan border amid tensions involving Iran and the United States. The Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) has yet to initiate a planned crackdown on companies and retailers accused of overcharging consumers. Authorities are reportedly concerned that enforcement measures could provoke protests or strikes, further disrupt supplies and deepen the ongoing energy crisis. Although OGRA has set the official LPG price at Rs279.34 per kilogram for the current month, consumers in several areas are reportedly paying between Rs550 and Rs600 per kilogram. In Peshawar, the commodity is selling for around Rs600 per kilogram, while prices in northern areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa have climbed to Rs750. A senior OGRA official said Pakistan relies on imports for approximately 70 per cent of its LPG requirements, with domestic production accounting for the remaining 30 per cent. An OGRA spokesperson said the authority was working to resolve the situation. The spokesperson acknowledged that the closure of the Taftan border had created supply difficulties but expressed hope that the problem would be brought under control soon. The price escalation has particularly affected low-income households in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where shortages of natural gas have compounded the problem. Residents in rural areas and the outskirts of Peshawar have increasingly turned to firewood for cooking as LPG and piped gas become harder to obtain. However, the shift has also raised firewood prices by Rs200 to Rs300 per maund. Previously sold for Rs1,400 to Rs1,600 per maund, firewood now costs between Rs1,600 and Rs1,800, adding to the financial burden on households already facing rising fuel expenses. Consumers remain vulnerable to further price increases if supply disruptions continue and regulatory intervention fails to stabilise the market.

New Sensation – India Appears Primed to Lead the Next Era of Global Refining Expansions | RBN Energy  - Global refining is entering a new phase. After decades of capacity growth centered in China and the Middle East, the baton is passing to India, where rapidly rising fuel demand is driving a new wave of refinery investment. About 900 Mb/d of capacity is slated to come online through 2030, including expansions and grass-roots projects. More than 70% of this capacity is expected to start up before the end of next year, including some already beginning operations, adding perhaps 300 Mb/d of desperately needed middle distillate production. In today’s RBN blog, we examine India’s short- and long-term goals, the kinds of projects underway, and how the U.S. is playing a role in their development.  The state of refining and the global refined products market has been a frequent topic in the RBN blogosphere over the last several weeks, from war-related disruptions in the Middle East and Russia to surging diesel crack spreads and the possibility of a U.S. ban on diesel exports. But if U.S. refining capacity is near its limit and the disruptions in the Middle East and Russia continue, where could relief come from? As we noted in Help!, China is one potential alternative, largely because its refineries operate in a way that is unique in the global market. While refiners in the U.S. (and most everywhere else) make decisions on production rates, imports and exports based on what’s best for them individually, that’s not the case in China, where refiners operate within a very specific set of government controls. China has the potential to increase its refinery runs and product exports, but only if it chooses to do so, which isn’t necessarily based on market conditionsAs noted in our recently updated Future of Fuels report, the two regions which led the way in refining additions over the past couple of decades, China and the Middle East, have largely moved away from adding fuels-focused capacity. Instead, India and (to a lesser extent) Africa are taking the lead in capacity increases and are likely to be responsible for most of total net global capacity growth through 2030. We expect India to add about 900 Mb/d of capacity through eight small/medium, mostly brownfield expansions at state-owned plants, accounting for about 60% of the 1,489 Mb/d of growth seen in the Asia Pacific region (green bar in Figure 1 below). In contrast, the U.S. (red bar) is expected to see its capacity fall by 66 Mb/d over the same period.The African expansions (purple bar in Figure 1) should add up to 510 Mb/d and include the final ramp up of the 700-Mb/d Dangote refinery this year (see Almost There) and several smaller refineries (primarily in Angola). While the prospects for the Indian projects are pretty firm (and discussed in detail below), there is greater uncertainty regarding the startup and operating success of the Angolan projects and the long-term operations of Dangote (or the prospects of two proposed new and similarly large Dangote plants that aren’t included in our forecasts through 2030). Also note that smaller expansions of refining capacity are expected in Canada/Mexico and the Middle East, while no changes are seen in Europe and Central/South America.Before we dig into the details of what’s planned in India, let’s start with the big-picture view. The Asia Pacific region, and especially China, has been on a tear for the past three decades in adding refining capacity. Since 1995, China by itself has grown capacity by more than 4X (14+ MMb/d). Unlike the Middle East, where much of the capacity was export-oriented, Chinese (and most other Asia Pacific) capacity growth targeted rapidly growing domestic demand for transportation fuels. With slowing transportation fuels demand growth, this dynamic has shifted in recent years as most new projects, particularly those in China, have shifted toward petrochemicals. A major exception is India, where government-owned oil companies are advancing refining projects to keep up with rapidly growing domestic fuels demand (although petchems are becoming a growing focus there as well).Of the eight refinery projects that we’re tracking (see Figure 2 below), six are expected to be online by the end of 2027 (and much of that in just the next few months). These projects, including a pair of grass-roots refineries (Barmer and Nagapattinam), are sponsored by several government-owned entities (IOCL, HPCL, OIL, HRRL, BPCL and CPCL), with the largest, IOCL, participating wholly or in part in five projects. All the projects are geared more toward middle distillates than gasoline, producing about 370 Mb/d combined, and three include significant petchem integration.Here’s where each of those eight projects currently stand, including six expansions (blue refinery icons in Figure 2 above) and two grass-roots projects (green icons):

• IOCL’s Barauni project will add 60 Mb/d of refining capacity to process medium-weight crudes, with much of it likely sourced from the Middle East. (Nearly all of India’s new capacity by 2030 is aimed at these types of crudes.) This project, which has seen several delays, is reportedly still planned to start up before the end of this year, although we don't expect the full amount of additional capacity to be effective until 2027, and further delays are possible.
• IOCL’s Koyali project will add 86 Mb/d of capacity and includes integration with the refinery’s lube and petchem units. Progressive commissioning of units is already underway but we don’t believe full capacity will be reached until Q1 2027.
• The HCPL/HRRL Barmer 180-Mb/d refinery, one of two grass-roots projects in Figure 2, began startup in June after a several-month delay due to a fire. While gasoline and diesel sales have begun, full operations on heavier, higher-sulfur crudes and startup of petrochemical units are not expected until H1 2027. When complete it will have the highest level of petrochemical integration of any refinery in India.
• While some parts of the project are already going through commissioning steps, the bulk of startup activities at IOCL’s 200-Mb/d expansion of its Panipat refinery (the largest addition of capacity among these projects) are not expected to begin until November or December, with full capacity expected by the end of H1 2027, although minor slippage is possible.
• The startup date for 120 Mb/d of new capacity at Oil India and NRL’s Numaligarh refinery has continued to slip, with a recent update from the sponsors moving the schedule back from early 2027 to later in the year, with full capacity operations not until year-end 2027. It is possible that this could slip a bit further into 2028.
• The 6-Mb/d expansion at IOCL’s Digboi refinery (the smallest of the group) is primarily focused on improving yields of transportation fuels. Its startup has been pushed back to mid-2027 (from mid-2026) as delays continue.
• The 60-Mb/d upgrade to BPCL’s Bina refinery is focused on expanding petchem production, and also includes a green hydrogen plant. Those additions are expected online by 2029.
• The last project is IOCL/CPCL’s 180-Mb/d refinery in Nagapattinam, the second grass-roots project on our list. The site has recently been restructured to change focus from fuels to petrochemicals. Its official startup date has been pushed from the end of 2027 to 2030, and it’s possible it could be delayed into the early 2030s.

As with China, several other proposed major projects in India are on our Watch List, including greenfield and brownfield projects. Two of the more probable are the brownfield expansions of the two largest privately owned refining complexes in western India’s Gujarat state — Nayara Energy’s plant in Vadinar and Reliance’s mega-complex in Jamnagar. If/when they are completed, they would add 250 Mb/d and 500 Mb/d of capacity, respectively. We note that Reliance remains in talks to acquire a 49+% interest in Nayara from Rosneft, which would make it the largest refiner in India (surpassing IOCL). In addition, HPCL/HRRL’s Vizag refinery is planning another expansion (following its recent expansion) of up to 100 Mb/d. A 180-Mb/d greenfield plant sponsored by BPCL is approaching a final investment decision (FID) and is another project to keep an eye on, with a possible startup by as early as 2030 if everything goes well. Saudi Aramco is also involved in potential joint ventures (JVs) in India with IOCL and others, which are the ones to watch in the long term. Since diesel production is so critical now, we will also note one other project which was recently completed but did not add crude capacity: HPCL’s resid hydrocracker at its Visakh refinery. This unit started up earlier this year and can increase the refinery’s overall diesel production by around 35 Mb/d.The added refining capacity is critical for India. After a decline in 2026, India is expected to add about 333 Mb/d of total liquids products demand in 2027 and another 251 Mb/d in 2028, while Other Asia/Pacific adds about 352 Mb/d and 197 Mb/d in those years. India is forecast to see significant increases in demand for liquids products well into the 2040s, a sharp contrast with most of the global market, as shown in Figure 3 below. European demand began falling in the 2019-25 period (dark-blue bar in Europe grouping), U.S. demand growth is expected to reverse by the 2030-35 period (green bar in U.S. grouping), while Chinese demand turns negative by the 2035-40 period (purple bar in China grouping), thanks in large part to the rapid acceleration of EV adoption. While Indian refiners and their government-owned parents are providing most of the capital for this phase of refinery expansion, U.S. companies are playing an important supporting role by supplying the advanced technologies, engineering services, catalysts and specialized equipment needed to turn more crude into higher-value, cleaner products.The most directly relevant development came during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s February 2025 visit to Washington. President Trump and Modi formally recommitted to the U.S.-India Energy Security Partnership and agreed to increase bilateral energy trade. The joint statement specifically called for establishing the U.S. as a leading supplier of crude oil and petroleum products to India and for increasing investment in oil-and-gas infrastructure and cooperation between U.S. and Indian energy companies.Washington’s role has generally been to facilitate U.S. commercial participation rather than directly fund India’s refinery construction. The U.S. Trade and Development Agency has financed feasibility and engineering studies aimed at introducing U.S. technologies at Indian refineries, while the U.S. Export-Import Bank has historically provided financing that enabled Indian refiners to purchase U.S. equipment, technology and services.That involvement is particularly evident at Numaligarh. Honeywell UOP is providing technology for a new diesel hydrotreater designed to produce India’s BS-VI-spec diesel, while Chevron Lummus Global (CLG) is supplying residue-upgrading and hydrotreating technologies, along with engineering, catalysts, equipment and technical services. At Barauni, Indian Oil has also selected CLG hydrocracking technology. U.S. refining technology has been deployed at other Indian facilities, including Panipat, although some of those investments predate the current expansion program.India’s refinery buildout comes as the global refining map is shifting and fuel-demand growth increasingly tilts toward emerging markets. With a firm 900 Mb/d of capacity in the works (and more possible), India is positioning itself to meet rising domestic demand while expanding its petrochemical capabilities. And there’s a U.S. angle: American technology is helping enable the projects, while growing Indian crude requirements could provide another important outlet for U.S. barrels in the years ahead.

Russia boosts oil supplies to China by 18.3% - Russia increased its oil supplies to China by 18.3% year-on-year in January-September, reaching 87.59 million tonnes.In September alone, Russian oil shipments to China rose by around 20%. The value of exports in the first nine months of the year increased by 36.6% to $51.55 billion, according to Chinese customs data cited by RIA Novosti.

UAE confirms oil spill off coast and temporarily closes Umm Al Quwain beaches -UAE authorities are working to contain an oil spill from a supertanker in the Arabian Gulf, with Umm Al Quwain Municipality intensifying efforts to limit pollution and protect marine habitats. The Ministry of Climate Change and Environment confirmed the incident early on Friday morning. It said the spill is causing a strong smell that residents of Dubai and the northern emirates have reported in recent days. The ministry did not name the vessel, but international maritime agencies say the Gem No.2 was struck in a suspected Iranian drone attack on October 9 to 10. Twenty-two Indian sailors were rescued from the 330-metre vessel at the time. Gulf nations urged to tackle 'unprecedented' environmental damage from Iran war Iran war causing 'unprecedented' ecological damage in Gulf The extent of the oil slick is unclear, but the incident was confirmed amid growing concerns about the environmental impact of the Iran war on the Gulf and the Arabian Sea. On Friday afternoon, Sharjah authorities closed Al Hamriya Beach as a precautionary measure after Umm Al Quwain temporarily closed all beaches and coastal areas. Umm Al Quwain Municipality said it was carrying out field operations to contain the effects of the spill and minimise damage to marine and coastal environments. The municipality will monitor conditions, identify affected areas and support clean-up and treatment work as part of those efforts. Specialists will also help to assess the impact of the spill and determine appropriate measures. People in the UAE have in recent days reported an acrid and strong fuel smell in the air. The ministry said there was no health risk from the odour, but advised the public to stay away from any oil that washes ashore. "The Ministry of Climate Change and Environment confirms the UAE’s technical monitoring and environmental assessment system detected a tanker oil spill affecting Umm Al Quwain’s beaches," it said in a statement. "Odours noticed in Sharjah, Ajman and Umm Al Quwain pose no health risks to residents. … "Teams immediately began containment, cordoning, clean-up and remediation with local and federal authorities to limit environmental impacts. Precautionary coastal surveys, monitoring and assessments continue to gauge impacts and protect the marine environment. "With relevant authorities, the ministry has temporarily closed all Umm Al Quwain beaches and coastal areas until technical teams complete assessments and identify safety and marine protection measures. Fishermen and sea users are urged to follow authorities’ instructions and avoid fishing in affected areas." Dr Diana Francis, an associate professor and head of the Environmental and Geophysical Sciences Lab at Khalifa University in Abu Dhabi, said oil spills caused by the regional conflict could create odours. “When an oil spill happens, it continues to move with the currents unless it is removed and cleaned completely,” she told The National before the ministry confirmed the oil slick incident. “Several spills can also move with the currents and accumulate in favourable gyre [rotating ocean current] areas. Then with time, heat and winds, they evaporate into the air and give off fuel-like odours. “Oil doesn't mix with water. It continues to float until it is removed or evaporate with time.” Prashant Kumar, professor of air quality and health at the University of Surrey in the UK, said air pollution – and the smells that it brings with it – can travel over long distances. “The smell can travel tens of kilometres,” he said, in comments also made before the ministry's statement on Friday. “It depends on the meteorological conditions, it depends on the wind speed and the wind direction. You can easily have the longer-range transport of pollutants from one place to another.”

UAE's Ras Al Khaimah shuts all beaches as neighbours grapple with oil spill |(Reuters) - Ras Al Khaimah authorities said on Saturday that all beaches ​in the emirate would be closed until further notice, a day after ‌an offshore oil leak prompted beach closures in neighbouring Umm Al Quwain and Sharjah. The Public Services Department announced the closures in a statement shared by Ras Al Khaimah Police General Headquarters. No ​reason was given. The United Arab Emirates said on Friday that efforts were underway to ​contain oil leaking from a tanker offshore, with its Ministry of ⁠Climate Change and Environment conducting an environmental assessment. All beaches and coastal areas around the ​city of Umm Al Quwain were temporarily closed until technical teams completed their assessments ​and determined the necessary safety and marine protection measures, the ministry said. The ministry also urged fishermen and other sea users to avoid affected areas and follow official instructions. Authorities in Sharjah temporarily closed Al ​Hamriyah Beach, on the UAE's northern coast near the border with Umm Al ​Quwain, as a precaution, the Sharjah Government Media Bureau said. Since the start of the US-Israeli war with Iran, ‌attacks ⁠on commercial vessels in Gulf shipping lanes have heightened concerns about maritime security and the conflict's environmental fallout. Ras Al Khaimah, a northern UAE emirate known for its beaches and luxury resorts, is also home to Wynn Resorts' planned casino resort on Al ​Marjan Island. The Las Vegas-based ​operator, which won ⁠the UAE's first commercial gaming licence in 2024, said in February it expected the resort to open in the first quarter of ​2027. Wynn said in March it had resumed construction after a brief ​pause, even ⁠as the Iran war continued to disrupt businesses across the Middle East. Residents reported unusual odours in parts of Sharjah, Ajman and Umm Al Quwain, but the UAE's environment ministry said ⁠they ​posed no health risks. The smell remained pungent across ​Umm Al Quwain on Friday. UAE authorities have not named the tanker involved in the incident or said ​what caused the spill.

Iran's Strait of Hormuz Attacks Put Oil Prices and Trump's Midterm Hopes at Risk -Iran's escalating attacks on commercial shipping near the Strait of Hormuz have heightened pressure on global oil prices and added to President Donald Trump's political challenges ahead of the Nov. 3 midterm elections. At least 23 attacks were recorded during the first two weeks of October, according to data by the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO). The surge threatens shipments through a critical Gulf energy route as U.S. households face higher fuel costs. Iranian officials have described the period before the election as an opportunity to increase economic pressure on Washington. October's attack tally exceeded the monthly totals recorded since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began on Feb. 28, according to UKMTO figures. Six vessels were attacked on one Sunday, while 12 incidents were recorded between Oct. 5 and 11. Two commercial vessels, the container ship GFS Pride and the dry bulk carrier Cape Dao, sank near the strait in mid-October after sustaining damage in separate attacks. The loss brought the reported number of commercial vessels sunk since the conflict began to three, according to an analysis of International Maritime Organization (IMO) casualty data. The IMO has reported 24 seafarer deaths in incidents near Hormuz during the conflict. Singapore's Maritime and Port Authority condemned the attacks in a statement. "MPA is deeply concerned about the continued attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz," Singapore's Maritime and Port Authority said in a statement. "Such attacks are unprovoked, unjustifiable, and a breach of international law." Brent crude touched $110 a barrel on Oct. 17 amid concerns about shipping near Hormuz and repeated missile and drone attacks by Iran-backed Houthi militants against Saudi Arabia. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures also gained, reaching $94.64 a barrel earlier in the week. Combined crude oil and petroleum product exports through Hormuz and alternative routes fell to an estimated 9.5 million barrels per day over the preceding week, according to the energy market, which compares with a recent high of 16 million barrels per day and a September average of 14 million barrels per day. The International Energy Agency warned on Oct. 15 that pressure on global diesel supplies could persist into the first half of 2027. Diplomatic uncertainty has added to concerns about when shipping volumes might recover. The lack of progress on the U.S.-Iran diplomatic track "leaves little immediate prospect of a full reopening of the waterway," said Firas Bechwaty, head of business development at trading platform ICM. Iranian officials and regional diplomats said that Tehran views the weeks before the U.S. elections as an opportunity to increase economic pressure on Trump. Iranian leaders expect the president to be less politically sensitive to elevated energy prices after Americans have voted. "It appears Iran is attempting to keep oil prices high ahead of the midterm elections, and the best way to do this has been to increase attacks, both from themselves and via the Houthis," said Matt Smith, analyst at Kpler. The political concern centers on fuel costs, which affect household spending and transportation expenses. U.S. gasoline averaged $2.98 a gallon on Feb. 26, two days before the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, and climbed above $4 within two months. At least six states subsequently recorded average gasoline prices above $5 a gallon, while diesel prices rose 71% from the start of the war. A Pew Research Center report found that 74% of Americans were concerned about gas and energy prices. Separately, a Politico poll found that 29% of undecided voters said a $1 reduction in gasoline prices wouldn't make them more inclined to vote Republican. Neither survey directly measured the electoral impact of the latest attacks near the Strait of Hormuz. Trump has sought to maintain pressure on Iran while addressing the economic effects of disrupted oil supplies. In a Truth Social post, he said his blockade of Iranian oil exports had left the country in a "very bad condition," adding that "we will not be attacking Iran at any time before the Midterm Elections." The statement didn't rule out further U.S. strikes after Election Day. The administration has also explored measures to increase available oil supplies, and it was considering easing sanctions on some "shadow fleet" vessels used to transport oil from countries including Russia. HSBC analysts have warned that Brent crude could reach approximately $120 a barrel if diplomatic efforts fail and oil flows through Hormuz remain near current levels.

Global oil prices fall following a U.S. decision to suspend sanctions on Russia  – Oil prices fell significantly on Monday, following U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to suspend sanctions and tariffs imposed on Russia. This move is also expected to pave the way for an increase in the flow and export of Russian fuel to global markets. In terms of trading, Brent crude futures fell by $1.94, or 1.77%, to reach $107.92 per barrel. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined by 83 cents, or 0.82%, to stand at $100.58 per barrel. Trump had signed an executive order suspending key sanctions and tariffs against Moscow. Secretary of State Marco Rubio explained that the U.S. administration would assess the economic impact of these decisions over a period of up to 60 days. Trump had signed an executive order suspending key sanctions and tariffs against Moscow. Secretary of State Marco Rubio explained that the U.S. administration would assess the economic impact of these decisions over a period of up to 60 days. Despite downward pressure stemming from anticipated increases in Russian supply, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East—along with ongoing attacks on commercial vessels—have helped limit price declines. This is due to persistent concerns regarding the safety of maritime navigation and the stability of global energy supplies.

Oil Eases as Traders Assess Supply Risks, Sanctions Waiver -- Oil futures retreated Monday morning after rallying Friday on the back of growing Middle East supply risks as escalating fighting in the region threatened a fragile oil supply recovery. By 9:30 a.m. EDT, ICE Brent for December delivery was down $2.18 to trade near $107.68 bbl, and NYMEX WTI for November delivery fell $1.16 to $100.25 bbl. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD for November delivery slid $0.0472 to $4.8519 gallon, and front-month RBOB futures retreated $0.0287 to $3.2067 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index steadied, down 0.008 points to 101.65 against a basket of foreign currencies. Iranian forces have markedly intensified attacks on vessels attempting to traverse the Strait of Hormuz. Ship traffic has in reaction slowed down significantly, vessel tracking data showed. According to commodity intelligence firm Kpler, oil exports from the Persian Gulf averaged 8.5 million bpd last week, less than half of the average pace observed just the week prior. On Sunday, an oil tanker exploded after striking a mine in the waterway. The incident highlighted the lack of navigational safety and put into question frequently repeated claims that the oil chokepoint has been cleared of mines. Mounting threats to shipping fueled concerns of a deepening crude oil supply disruption just weeks after flows had finally rebounded near pre-war levels. The U.S., meanwhile, on Friday waived new sanctions on Russia just days before they were set to take effect. U.S. President Donald Trump, who last month signed the legislation passed by both chambers of Congress with bipartisan support, granted this 60-day suspension in an effort to ease retail fuel prices ahead of next month's elections. A week earlier, the Treasury suspended sanctions relating to Russian diesel exports after Trump announced he had struck a deal with the Kremlin that Russia will immediately supply the global market with 2.25 million bbl of diesel. Analysts, however, were largely skeptical that this additional supply will have a significant impact on prices. Question marks surrounding the country's ability to significantly ramp up exports as Ukrainian strikes have by now more than halved Russian refining capacity aside, the initial volume slated for October is equivalent to about 18 hours of U.S. diesel demand, or enough to meet less than two hours of global consumption.

Oil Prices Drop as Investors Take Profits Amid Middle East Tensions - Pakistan Observer - Global oil prices fell by more than $1 on Monday as investors booked profits following last week’s multi-month highs, while concerns over escalating conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine continued to support the market. Brent crude futures declined $1.72, or 1.6%, to $108.14 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 87 cents, or 0.86%, to $100.54 a barrel at 1427 GMT. Supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz remained a key concern after attacks on commercial vessels reduced average daily crude flows to around 8.5 million barrels last week, down from more than 20 million barrels in the previous week, according to analytics firm Kpler. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said an oil tanker caught fire and exploded after striking a naval mine in the southern Strait of Hormuz on Sunday. Analysts warned that further attacks could disrupt oil exports, while Egypt’s offer to support Saudi Arabia against Yemen’s Houthis added to concerns over regional stability.

Oil Market Pushes Higher as Houthis Strike Saudi Energy Targets - The oil market traded higher as traders remained concerned about the continuing conflict in the Middle East, with the Iran-aligned Houthis attacking Saudi energy, airport and military targets on Monday. The market remained supported on the opening on Sunday evening after Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said an oil tanker caught fire and exploded after striking a naval mine in the southern part of the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday. The market later gave up some of its gains and posted a low of $99.24 on some profit taking. However, the market bounced off that level and settled in a sideways trading range before it extended its gains further in afternoon trading. The market, which posted a high of $104.18 ahead of the close, was well supported by the news that Yemen’s Houthis carried out attacks against an Aramco site in Yanbu, the Shaybah oilfield, King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh and Abha airport. The November WTI contract settled up $2.25 at $103.66, while the December Brent contract settled down 31 cents at $109.55. The product markets ended the session in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling up 2.1 cents at $4.9201 and the RB market settling down 4.4 cents at $3.1914. During a joint news conference with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi, said regional issues should be resolved through diplomacy and blamed the United States for insecurity and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. He called for regional countries to work toward a joint security arrangement. Meanwhile, Russia’s Foreign Minister said that Russia has no interest in volatile energy prices. Kpler said increased attacks on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Horzmuz cut Gulf crude flows to a seven-day average of about 8.5 million bpd last week from more than 20 million bpd the week before. At least 10 confirmed incidents involving commercial vessels were reported last week. On Sunday, U.S. President Donald Trump said his decision to waive sanctions and tariffs related to Russian exports is an effort to keep Russia at the negotiating table. On Saturday, the day after waiving sanctions and tariffs related to Russian exports, U.S. President Donald Trump said he has yet to announce a final decision on the matter, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio said officials want more time to evaluate the situation. The U.S. Secretary of State said that President Trump will use up to 60 days to assess the economic impact of Russia-related sanctions and tariffs that he waived a day earlier. President Trump signed an executive order on Friday waiving key sanctions and tariffs under the law known as the Graham Act, which he signed last month at the urging of lawmakers who want to pressure Moscow over its war in Ukraine. The measures, including tariffs on Russian goods and penalties on countries buying Russian oil and gas, were due to take effect next week. Friday’s order did not specify how long the waiver would last, but U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said President Trump opted for a 60-day review. IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 479,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending October 23rd, increasing available refining capacity by 95,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 213,000 bpd in the week ending October 30th.

Oil prices jump above $110 per barrel amid Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia - Pakistan Observer – Oil prices edged higher after Yemen’s Houthi group claimed attacks on Saudi energy facilities, airports and military targets, while a strike on a military training camp in Yemen added to regional security concerns. Brent crude futures rose 17 cents, or 0.15%, to $110.03 per barrel. The increase followed a decline of more than $3 during the previous trading session, as investors took profits. Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed $1.68, or 1.66%, to $103.09 per barrel. On Monday, the Houthis claimed they had targeted several sites in Saudi Arabia, including a Saudi Aramco facility in Yanbu, the Shaybah oilfield, King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh and Abha Airport. Saudi authorities did not immediately confirm the reported attacks. The latest developments have added to concerns over regional stability and potential risks to energy infrastructure, factors that can influence global oil prices. Meanwhile, the death toll from a missile attack attributed to Yemen’s Houthi movement on a military training centre in Shabwa province has climbed to 58, according to the provincial governor. The strike targeted a training facility near Ataq, the provincial capital, leaving more than 200 recruits injured. Several of the wounded are reportedly in critical condition. Local authorities denounced the attack, while Yemen’s internationally recognised government vowed to take a strong response following the deadly incident.

Oil Soars to 5-Month Highs on Mounting Supply Risks  (DTN) -- Oil futures rose to their highest since May Tuesday morning amid intensifying Iranian attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz and lingering Houthi threats on Saudi infrastructure supporting a higher geopolitical risk premium. WTI's front-month contract on its last trading day jumped more than 5% earlier in the session. By 7:55 a.m. EDT, ICE Brent for December delivery was up $2.18 to trade near $107.68 bbl. NYMEX WTI for November delivery soared $5.84 to $109.50 bbl, while the more actively traded December contract rose $2.07 to $100.61 bbl. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD for November delivery advanced $0.0768 to $4.9969 gallon, and front-month RBOB futures edged higher $0.0166 to $3.2080 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index slipped 0.09 points to 101.695 against a basket of foreign currencies. Attacks on vessels in the region have so far in October been more frequent than at any other point during the conflict that started in late February. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Center has so far this month reported of 30 attacks in and surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Commodity intelligence firm Kpler on Monday said they had counted 18 verifiable ship attacks over the last two weeks alone. Iranian forces, meanwhile, alleged that two oil tankers had struck mines on Sunday, although no independent reports have so far confirmed the reports circulating in Tehran-affiliated media. Vessels crossing the waterway weren't the only ones subject to this new wave of Iranian attacks. Ships in the Gulf of Oman are also increasingly being targeted, threatening one of the few workarounds to the blockade of the strait. Saudi Arabia has over the past several months diverted as many crude oil loading operations as possible from terminals inside the Persian Gulf to offshore ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. Houthi rebels have also ramped up attacks on Saudi Arabia since the start of the Yemeni Saudi-backed counteroffensive earlier this month. A spokesperson for the Tehran-allied militia on Monday claimed several new attacks on Saudi infrastructure, including the Shaybah oil field and the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Saudi forces have previously successfully intercepted drones launched at the Shaybah field near the border with the United Arab Emirates, and Riyadh has so far not commented on Monday's alleged strikes. In reaction to the growing Houthi threat, the kingdom on Monday officially postponed a planned in-person economic forum citing security concerns. Elsewhere, market participants are awaiting weekly U.S. inventory reports to gauge the level of supply-demand imbalance now that crude oil releases from the country's Strategic Petroleum Reserve have trickled out. Commercial inventories posted a hefty decline of 8.6 million bpd amid hurricane-induced production shut-ins in the week ended Oct. 9. Despite offshore operations having largely been restored, analysts still expect inventories to have shrunk further during the last week. The American Petroleum Institute is set to release inventory estimates later Tuesday, followed by U.S. Energy Information Administration data scheduled for Wednesday, Oct. 21.

Why Is the WTI Oil Price Rising More than Brent Intraday? | Rigzone - Why is the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price rising more than Brent today? This was the question Rigzone posed to several analysts, including Artem Bakushev, Head of Risk at Monaxa, Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist at B. Riley Wealth, and Phil Flynn, a senior market analyst at the PRICE Futures Group. In response, Bakushev highlighted to Rigzone that WTI is “outrunning Brent today in a slightly awkward sprint … even as both sit near multi-month highs”. “The November WTI contract is rolling off today, so some of the punchier moves are coming on thinner volume, but the broader message is clear enough: geopolitical risk is still doing the heavy lifting,” Bakushev told Rigzone. “Fresh Houthi claims and shipping nerves around Saudi facilities and the Strait of Hormuz are keeping a decent premium in the market, and traders seem more willing to pay up for the landlocked U.S. barrel right now than the seaborne international one,” he added. “It feels less like a clean fundamental breakout and more like the market still twitchy and unwilling to fade the latest flare-ups,” he continued. Hogan told Rigzone that the spread between WTI and Brent has been compressing for a week and continues again today. “West Texas Intermediate is rising more than Brent largely due to a combination of strong domestic inventory draws, contract expiries/positioning, and the shifting spread dynamics related to Middle East shipping and tanker/freight premiums,” he said. “Just two weeks ago the spread between WTI and Brent had blown out to over $12 but has recently shrunk to under $5,” Hogan highlighted in his response to Rigzone. Flynn told Rigzone that part of the surge in WTI today is due to the November WTI contract expiration. “There seems to be a bit of a surge … signaling a tight market that was made tighter because of last week’s hurricane,” Flynn added. Flynn went on to outline that “the pause on Russian oil sanctions” is also a “factor” for the oil market to consider, noting that “overall strength is because oil infrastructure is the main target of Russia and Ukraine, adding to the upside risk”. At the time of writing, the WTI oil price is trading at $109.08 per barrel, which marks a 5.23 percent increase from Monday’s close, while the Brent price is trading at $111.29 per barrel, which marks a 1.59 percent rise from yesterday’s close. WTI’s highest close so far in 2026 was seen on April 7, at $112.95 per barrel. Brent’s highest close in 2026, so far, was seen on March 31, at $118.35 per barrel. In a report sent to Rigzone on Friday by the Saxo Bank team, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at the company, noted that crude oil prices remained “elevated”, with Brent “trading around $105 per barrel and WTI outperforming during the week”. “The Middle East conflict continues to dominate supply conditions, even as crude shipments recover towards pre-war levels,” Hansen pointed out in that report. “However, recovering exports should not be mistaken for normalization. Attacks on vessels in and around the Strait of Hormuz, combined with exceptionally high freight and insurance costs, continue to disrupt the economics of moving crude and refined products,” he added. In this report, Hansen warned that a growing concern is the pressure on refinery profitability. “According to the International Energy Agency’s October Oil Market Report, elevated crude acquisition and freight costs have severely undermined refining margins in Europe and Asia, despite historically high diesel and other middle-distillate prices,” Hansen said. “This creates an apparent contradiction: diesel remains exceptionally expensive, yet producing it is becoming increasingly difficult to do profitably,” he added. “Refiners cannot simply convert every barrel of crude into diesel. Alongside diesel and jet fuel, they produce gasoline, naphtha and fuel oil, whose margins have deteriorated sharply,” he continued. “Gasoline cracks have turned negative in some markets, while other fuels trade at discounts to crude,” he noted. Hansen went on to state that continued margin deterioration could force some refiners to reduce throughput, “deepening the shortage of middle distillates and adding further upward pressure on diesel prices”.

Oil Market Reverses Lower After Surging Above $110 - - The oil market ended the session lower following a volatile session that saw the expiring November WTI contract trading to a high not seen since April. The market weighed the continuing Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure and reports of vessel attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. The crude market traded mostly sideways in the overnight session before it rallied higher in early morning trading. The market extended its gains to over $6.80 as it posted a high of $110.48. The market remained well supported after the Houthis on Monday said they launched several attacks on Saudi energy, airport and military targets, such as an Aramco site in Yanbu. However, the crude market erased all of its gains as it sold off to a low of $101.04 by mid-morning. The market later settled in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session. The November WTI contract went off the board down $1.87 at $101.79, while the December WTI contract settled down 72 cents at $97.82 and the December Brent contract settled down 76 cents at $108.79. The product markets ended the session in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling up 49 points at $4.9250 and the RB market settling down 7.42 cents at $3.1172. According to data from the Department of Energy, stocks of crude oil in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 282.7 million barrels last week, the lowest level since October 1982. U.S. Energy Department Under Secretary, Kyle Haustveit, said diesel prices are higher than anyone wants right now and added that the U.S. is working with refiners to seek ways to produce more. International Energy Agency Executive Director, Fatih Birol, said the IEA will consider a further release from members’ emergency oil reserves, if needed. He said the timeline for the release of 20 million barrels of diesel from IEA members’ emergency reserves depends on individual countries and the oil market situation. Last week, the IEA decided to accelerate the release of oil remaining from a record emergency reserves release pledged in March, including more than 20 million barrels of diesel as soon as possible to increase supply and lower prices. Senior officials said Iran has deliberately prolonged talks with the U.S. to try to weaken Donald Trump politically ahead of November’s U.S. midterm elections, while fears of renewed military action and deep distrust of Washington have reinforced Tehran’s reluctance to strike a quick deal to end the war. Three senior Iranian officials and an Iranian insider said Tehran was convinced the U.S. president was ready to resort to renewed attacks to try to break the stalemate in the eight month old war. The Revolutionary Guards’ Navy said two tankers were set ablaze and brought to a halt south of the Strait of Hormuz after hitting Iranian mines while violating Iranian regulations. The statement also said a U.S. drone was downed by Iran on Monday night.

Brent falls as Iran's president discusses mediation with Pakistani army chief (Reuters) - Oil prices settled down ​after touching a five-month high on Tuesday as traders weighed a meeting between the Iranian president and Pakistan's army ‌chief, a key US-Iran mediator, against continued Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure and reports of vessel attacks in the Gulf. Brent crude futures settled down 76 cents, or 0.69%, at $108.79. Earlier in the session, the front-month contract reached $111.99, a five-month high. The November contract for US West Texas Intermediate crude, which expired on Tuesday, settled ​down $1.87, or 1.8%, at $101.79. That was down from the session high of $110.48, the highest since April for a nearby contract. ​The more active December contract settled down 72 cents at $97.82 a barrel. Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian discussed mediation efforts ⁠and regional developments during a meeting with Pakistan's army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir in Tehran, Iran's Nournews reported on Tuesday. Pakistan's mediation efforts ​resulted in an interim peace agreement signed in June. But that deal quickly faltered amid new fighting between Iran and the US weeks ​later. Advertisement · Scroll to continue The talks in Tehran are against the backdrop of continued attacks by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis, who said on Monday they launched several attacks on Saudi energy, airport and military targets, such as an Aramco (2222.SE), opens new tab site in Yanbu, the Shaybah oilfield, Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport and Abha airport. Saudi authorities did not immediately confirm the ​Houthi claims and Reuters could not independently verify them. "Oil prices remain well-supported... This suggests the market is pricing in a significant risk ​premium, given the situation's volatility," ING analysts said in a note on Tuesday. At least 18 vessels were reportedly attacked over two weeks, which keeps the risk ‌premium ⁠intact, shiptracker Kpler said in a note on Monday. Also on Monday, a Houthi attack on a training camp for government security forces in Yemen's Shabwa province killed 58 people and injured more than 200. The video player is currently playing an ad. You can skip the ad in 5 sec with a mouse or keyboard The renewed attacks heightened fears about regional stability and underscored continuing risks to energy supply from the region, keeping oil prices above $100 a barrel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement he is "committed to completing the elimination of ​the Iranian regime," and spoke with ​US President Donald Trump about it ⁠on Sunday. Russian diesel cargoes are returning to their traditional destinations after the US suspended sanctions and secured the lifting of an export ban, with at least two tankers signaling trips to Turkey and Brazil ​in recent days, according to shipping data from Kpler and LSEG. The US is working with domestic refiners to ​squeeze more crude ⁠through its refining complex, US Energy Under Secretary Kyle Haustveit said on Tuesday at the Drake Forum in Titusville, Pennsylvania, a sentiment echoed by US Energy Secretary Chris Wright later on Tuesday in Houston. The US is also pushing shuttered domestic refineries to reopen, Wright added. US crude oil stockpiles ⁠were expected ​to have fallen last week along with product inventories, an extended Reuters poll showed ​on Tuesday. Eight analysts polled by Reuters estimated, on average, that crude inventories fell by about 800,000 barrels in the week ended October 16.

Oil prices jump $2 as Iran knocks hopes of diplomatic progress (Reuters) - Oil prices jumped by more than $2 on Wednesday after Iran said there was little reason to expect ‌diplomatic progress with the US, leaving the Brent benchmark hovering near five-month ‌highs, with further market support from falling US crude and product inventories. Brent crude futures gained $2.06, or 1.9%, ​to $110.85 a barrel by 1048 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up $2.13, or 2.2%, at $99.95. In the previous session, Brent hit its highest in five months while WTI touched a six-month peak before prices fell back on discussions on mediation efforts ‌in a meeting between Iran's ⁠president and Pakistan's army chief in Tehran. On Wednesday, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi told the Financial Times that Iran was fully ⁠prepared to defend itself and President Masoud Pezeshkian told state media the US could not expect dialogue while blockading and threatening Iran. "Neither of the two geopolitical conflicts underpinning ​the ​market's bullish sentiment has shown any signs ​of de-escalation," PVM analysts said, referring ‌to the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine wars. At least 18 vessel attacks were recorded over the past two weeks, Kpler data showed, while LSEG analysts warned that Iran was targeting tankers well beyond the Strait of Hormuz, reaching into the Gulf of Oman and jeopardising Gulf crude loadings and ship-to-ship transfers supporting regional loadings. Iran-aligned ‌Houthis on Monday claimed responsibility for attacks on ​a Saudi Aramco site in Yanbu, the ​Shaybah oilfield and Saudi Arabia's Riyadh ​and Abha airports. In the US, two Energy Department officials said ‌on Tuesday that they were working ​with refiners around the ​world to boost fuel output. US crude stocks fell by 4.9 million barrels in the week ended October 16, with gasoline and distillate inventories also down, ​said market sources citing API ‌data.

Oil Slips as Traders Weigh New Emergency Stock Releases (DTN) -- Oil futures were mixed in a choppy morning session Wednesday amid uncertainty over rumored mediation efforts to end the U.S.-Iran war. An industry report showed commercial crude oil stockpiles in the U.S. posting another large decline was offset by expectations of more releases from strategic reserves. By 9:00 a.m. EDT, ICE Brent for December delivery was down $0.62 to trade near $108.17 bbl, and NYMEX WTI for December delivery fell $0.48 to $97.34 bbl. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD for November delivery slipped $0.0751 to $4.8499 gallon, and front-month RBOB futures steadied, up $0.0021 to $3.1193 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index was little changed, down 0.02 points to 101.505 against a basket of foreign currencies. Oil prices soared to five-month highs Tuesday before reversing course after debunked reports of an imminent diplomatic settlement of the nearly eight-month-old conflict that has led to the largest oil supply disruption in history and globally plummeting inventories. Tehran denied these rumors, but confirmed that indirect negotiations via third party mediators were ongoing. Futures relinquished some of their earlier gains this morning after Reuters reported that the U.S. Department of Energy was set to release 315,000 bbl of heating oil from emergency reserves in order to tame middle distillate prices. The release from the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve, which holds about one million bbl of ultra-low sulfur diesel, will come in the form of loans and is expected to be completed by Nov. 13. Commercial distillate fuel oil stocks in the Northeast have barely rebounded since hitting an all-time low at the end of August, and are currently at their seasonally lowest on record, trailing year-ago levels and the five-year seasonal average by 41% and 45%, respectively, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed. Commercial crude oil inventories in the U.S. have until recently not experienced the precipitous decline recorded in refined fuel stockpiles, largely due to the release of nearly 133 million bbl of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Two weeks ago, crude stocks posted a hefty decline that came on the back of hurricane-induced production shut-ins but also coincided with the SPR supply stream drying up. The American Petroleum Institute late Tuesday reported across-the-board draws to commercial inventories last week, including a nearly 5 million bbl decline in crude oil stocks despite largely restored offshore production. Official government data from the EIA is scheduled for 10:30 a.m. EDT release Wednesday.

WTI Flat After Another Crude Draw, Distillates Stocks At Seasonal Record Lows - Oil prices are flat this morning, reversing earlier gains that pushed Brent crude above $110 a barrel - 5 month highs (and WTI back above $101), as traders weighed a recovery in Middle East oil exports against persistent threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and attacks targeting Saudi Arabia.. Specifically, shipping risks remained elevated as Iran's IRGC said Tuesday that two oil tankers caught fire after striking mines south of the Strait of Hormuz. “High exports do not necessarily mean lower risks,” said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at A/S Global Risk Management. “Shipping remains exposed to attacks, while exceptionally high freight rates and insurance premiums make transporting oil expensive.” Regional tensions also persisted. The Saudi-led coalition said Wednesday that it intercepted drones launched toward the kingdom, including one targeting the Eastern Province, a major oil-producing region. Diplomatic efforts to end the conflict are reportedly continuing. Qatar's Foreign Ministry said Tuesday that contacts, visits and exchanges of messages between Washington and Tehran remained ongoing, amid efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the regional escalation. With hurricane shut-in effects fading, API reported inventory draws across the board (except a small build at Cushing). API

• Crude -4.9mm
• Cushing +936k
• Gasoline -2.0mm
• Distillates -2.6mm

DOE:

• Crude -3.06mm (-340k exp)
• Cushing +987k
• Gasoline -2.95mm
• Distillates +1.68mm

Official US crude stocks drewdown for the 3rd straight week (more than expected but less than API). Cushing stocks rose for the 5th straight week while Gasoline inventories saw their biggest drawdown since May... With IEA urging the world to release more barrels from reserves, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve saw a small 300k barrel drain (after no change the prior week)... Despite the build this week, distillates stocks remain at record lows for this time of year... US Crude production fell once again (storm shut-ins)... WTI was trading around $98 ahead of the official data and didn't move much on the print... And much to Trump's chagrin, pump prices have never been higher at this time of year... Finally, Bloomberg reports that there are signs that physical markets in some parts of the world are beginning to cool. As flows through the Middle East rise, one key benchmark in the region has fallen to its weakest level in three months. The “Gulf crude oil market has been pressured” by the availability of multiple cargoes at relatively short notice, said June Goh, oil analyst at Sparta Commodities SA. At the same time, traders said high shipping costs mean American barrels aren’t traveling as far afield, pointing more supplies to Europe and pressuring the Dated Brent physical benchmark.

Oil Market Pulls Back as Russia-Ukraine Talks Offset Hormuz Risks - The crude market posted an inside trading day on Wednesday as the market weighed possible progress towards Russia-Ukraine talks against little hope of talks between the U.S. and Iran to end the conflict in the Middle East. The oil market was supported overnight by the continuing attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, with at least two more ships being struck. The market retraced some more of the previous day’s early losses as it traded to a high of $100.40 early Wednesday morning. The market later erased some of its gains after Russia’s President Vladimir Putin agreed to resume U.S.-mediated peace talks with Ukraine as soon as next month. The market sold off to a low of $96.26. However, the market retraced some of its losses ahead of the close amid the continuing concerns over the conflict in the Middle East. The December WTI contract settled down 67 cents at $97.15 and the December Brent contract settled up 3 cents at $108.82. The product markets ended the session in mixed territory once again, with the heating oil market settling down 16.17 cents at $4.7633 and the RB market settling up 33 points at $3.1205. The Department of Energy said the Trump administration is offering to loan up to nearly a third of the 1 million barrel U.S. emergency heating oil reserve. The move came after senators from both political parties urged the administration to release heating oil from the reserve as prices for diesel reached records above $6.50 per gallon on disruptions across the Middle East caused by the Iran war. The department will loan up to 315,000 barrels of heating oil from Maine, Massachusetts and Connecticut. Deliveries are set to be completed by November 13th. A source at the Energy Department said the administration will evaluate whether further releases from the reserve are necessary. Market watchers and analysts said President Donald Trump’s deal with Russia to supply diesel to U.S. and global markets is unlikely to meaningfully lower diesel prices, noting that the promised volumes are too small to ease a global supply squeeze. Michelle Brouhard, head of policy and geopolitical risk at Kpler, said it would take an additional 400,000 barrels per day of diesel supply to materially ease prices in the current market. However, the initial shipment of roughly 2.2 million barrels would amount to only about 73,000 bpd if distributed over a month. She said that volume on its own would probably not significantly affect global diesel prices. Caspian Conran, lead economist at consulting firm Baringa, estimated that the market would require an additional 850,000 bpd of supply to produce an immediate softening in prices. IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 479,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending October 23rd, increasing available refining capacity by 95,000 bpd.

Oil prices increase as 7 tankers reported damaged in Hormuz - — Sharp drops for stocks in the AI industry are dragging down markets worldwide on Oct. 22, while oil prices hit their highest levels since May following a report by Iran's state television that seven oil tankers caught fire and were damaged in the Strait of Hormuz. If the report is verified, it would be the largest number of vessels damaged in the waterway in a single day since the start of the Iran war on Feb. 28.. The price for a barrel of Brent crude oil rose 2.2% to $111.19 after touching its highest level in five months. It’s at the high end of the $97 to $112 range it’s been yo-yoing through in October on uncertainty about when the war with Iran will allow the global energy industry to return to normal. The S&P 500 sank 0.8% following even sharper losses in Asia, whose markets are full of AI and other technology stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 142 points, or 0.3%, as of 9:35 a.m. Eastern time, and the Nasdaq composite was 1.3% lower. AI stocks have been shaky on worries that their boom may be under threat because of how expensive it has become to borrow money to build data centers and buy more AI chips. Concerns also remain high that prices simply shot too high for AI-related stocks in their yearslong frenzy, even though companies in the industry continue to report growth. Lam Research, whose equipment and services help make semiconductors, reported gains in both profit and revenue for the summer that were slightly stronger than analysts expected, for example. Usually, that helps boost a stock’s price, but Lam Research’s tumbled 10.1% for one of the market's sharpest losses. The global tide against AI stocks knocked Nvidia down 1.8%. Because it’s the largest stock on Wall Street by total value, the chip giant was the heaviest single weight on the S&P 500. Also weighing on global stock markets was the jump in oil prices. In Europe, France’s CAC 40 stock index fell to one of the continent’s sharpest losses with a drop of 1% It has fewer tech stocks than Asian or U.S. indexes, but it was hurt by another jump in yields for French government bonds. Yields have been generally climbing there because of worries about the government’s big debt load and strained budget. Violent protests across France have raised pressure on the government to increase spending, which could add further to its debt. Worries about big debt affect almost every developed economy in the world, including the United States. Such concerns have pushed yields in the U.S. bond market to their highest levels in decades, along with high inflation, signals of a still-strong U.S. economy and other factors.

Oil Prices Surge on Houthi Attacks, Escalation Signs (DTN) -- Brent futures jumped to their highest since May Thursday morning following a fresh wave of Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. A U.S. State Department order to evacuate diplomats and their families from the country, meanwhile, stoked concerns of the conflict escalating further. By 8:55 a.m. EDT, ICE Brent for December delivery was up $3.21 to trade near $112.03 bbl, and NYMEX WTI for December delivery rose $2.46 to $99.61 bbl, after touching a high of $100.09 bbl earlier in the session. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD for November delivery jumped $0.1511 to $4.9144 gallon, and front-month RBOB futures advanced $0.0828 to $3.2033 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index remained unchanged at 101.6 points against a basket of foreign currencies. Oil fields, government buildings and an airport were among the latest targets struck by the Tehran-allied group. Saudi Aramco said that there was no impact to oil production operations, but the successful attacks still raised supply concerns as they highlighted the vulnerability of energy infrastructure in the region, and Saudi Arabia's seemingly limited means to protect vital assets. The U.S. State Department, meanwhile, ordered the evacuation of diplomatic staff and their families from several sites in Saudi Arabia. The move stoked fears of an imminent escalation in fighting and the possible return of U.S. military operations against the Houthis. Reports suggesting the U.S. is also planning to withdraw personnel from other countries in the region also contributed to a higher risk premium. Attacks on tankers in the region also continued. Iran's armed forces on Thursday claimed to have struck four oil tankers in the Persian Gulf, and said that another three vessels had collided with mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Separately, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Center on Wednesday reported that a tanker was struck in the Gulf of Oman. In the U.S., meanwhile, crude oil inventories last week declined by more than expected, Energy Information Administration data published Wednesday showed. Refining activity at a seasonal record high and a lull in offshore production contributed to the second consecutive larger-than-anticipated draw. Volumes held in commercial inventories dropping below year-ago levels for the first time since early August also coincided with the end of significant emergency stockpile releases.

Oil prices hit five-month high as Houthi attacks stoke Middle East supply fears (Reuters) - Oil prices climbed about 4% to a five-month high ​on Thursday after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia stoked concerns of further disruption to energy supplies from the key exporting region. Brent futures ‌rose $4.35, or 4.0%, to settle at $113.17 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude rose $2.32, or 2.4%, to settle at $99.47. That was the highest close for Brent since May 4 and kept the global benchmark in technically overbought territory for the third time in a week. "The complex is rebounding on another strong injection of risk premium related to ​an additional Houthi attack on Saudi infrastructure amid talk of a combined US/Israeli strike on Iran after the mid-terms," analysts at energy advisory firm ​Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note. Saudi Aramco (2223.SE), opens new tab told staff to evacuate its headquarters in Dhahran on the Gulf ⁠near Bahrain, Reuters reported, as fighting between the world's largest crude exporter and Yemen's Houthis intensified. Clashes between the Houthis and a Saudi-led coalition that backs ​Yemen's internationally recognized government have raged since the Iran-aligned group pushed towards Bab el-Mandeb, a shipping chokepoint at the Red Sea's mouth. "Reports of Middle East ​crude oil exports exceeding pre-conflict levels are more than countered by attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and the Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia and on its oil infrastructure," PVM Oil analyst Tamas Varga said. Morgan Stanley analysts estimated that Middle East crude oil exports were around 17 million barrels per day last week. Crude exports from ​the region averaged about 18 million bpd in the 12 months before the start of the Iran war, according to Kpler. In the US, refiner Valero Energy kicked off earnings season for US refiners on Thursday by posting its highest-ever quarterly profit, beating Wall Street expectations, as fuel supply disruptions due to wars in Iran ‌and Ukraine ⁠boosted margins during the third quarter. Russia pounded Kyiv with ballistic missiles and Ukraine sent hundreds of drones towards Moscow overnight as the two sides kept up a barrage despite the latest US push to end the war. But consumer staples and financial stocks declined. Russia said on Wednesday it was ready to resume US-mediated talks with Ukraine next month, after President Vladimir Putin hosted US envoy Steve Witkoff for talks in St Petersburg. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he hoped negotiations, which would ​be the first since February, would take ​place early in November. Russia was ⁠the world's third-biggest crude oil producer behind the US and Saudi Arabia in 2025, US energy data showed. Sanctions designed to keep Russian energy out of global markets after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine have helped support oil prices. Any ​deal to end Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which it launched in February 2022, could allow Russia to export ​more. Senior Russian political ⁠and energy officials urged the European Union on Thursday to reconsider its plans to ban imports of Russian LNG, arguing the bloc's low storage levels had put Europe in a precarious position. The European Parliament, meanwhile, approved a three-year delay to EU methane emissions rules for oil and gas imports, after pressure from governments including France ⁠and the US. In Libya, ​an oil pipeline valve from the Hamada and Tahara oilfields to Zawiya port has ​been shut, leading to a reduction in production at both fields, the head of the National Oil Corporation told Reuters on Thursday.

Oil Extends Rise as Supply Risks Grow, Peace Prospects Dim - Oil prices extended their advance Friday morning on growing risks to Middle Eastern oil supply amid a recent escalation in fighting in the region. Brent futures were trading at their highest since early May and were on track for the third consecutive weekly increase. By 9:10 a.m. EDT, ICE Brent for December delivery was up $1.90 to trade near $115.07 bbl, and NYMEX WTI for December delivery rose $1.94 to $101.41 bbl. Downstream, NYMEX RBOB for November delivery advanced $0.0307 to $3.2072 gallon, while front-month ULSD futures bucked the trend, retreating $0.0234 to $4.9087 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index steadied, up 0.04 points to 101.48 against a basket of foreign currencies. Driving the rally was less acute physical supply disruption but rather mounting risks that the current recovery in crude flows from the region is standing on shaky ground. While this week's Houthi attacks on key Saudi Arabian infrastructure, including an oil field and the vital Red Sea port of Yanbu, failed to meaningfully hamper output, the deadly strikes highlighted the kingdom's seemingly limited means to protect core assets. Adding to the risk premium were signs the U.S. may be preparing for a surge in fighting. The U.S. State Department this week issued an evacuation order for personnel from Saudi Arabia, and reports suggested that the administration was preparing to extend this order to other countries in the region. In addition, the New York Times on Wednesday reported that Israel and the U.S. were drafting plans for renewed military strikes on Iran following the midterm elections on Nov. 3. Reciprocal strikes on energy infrastructure in the Russia-Ukraine war also continued this week. Russia has since the summer lost a significant portion of refining capacity to Ukrainian drone attacks, leading to regional fuel shortages and refined product export bans. Reports this week suggested that plant operators in Russia were holding off some repair work for as long as Ukrainian strikes continued unhindered, increasing the likelihood the global diesel crunch may extend far into 2027. Despite domestic supply constraints, the first Russian diesel cargo bound for the U.S. since the White House waived sanctions on the country and the Kremlin in return lifted its diesel export ban departed Friday, according to media reports based on ship tracking data, and is expected to arrive in the U.S. in two weeks.

Oil prices jump $3 on Houthi attacks, oil spill, highest settlement since April (Reuters) - Oil prices ​settled more than $3 higher on Friday, their highest in nearly six months after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia stoked concerns over further disruption ‌to energy supplies from the Middle East, where UAE authorities also reported an oil spill. Brent crude futures settled at $116.72 a barrel, up $3.55 or 3.14%, their highest since April 29. US West Texas Intermediate crude closed at $103.27 a barrel, up $3.80 or 3.8%. Brent finished the week up 6% and WTI ended 2.3% higher. "Fears of supply disruptions drove the advance after Iranian-backed Houthi rebels carried out a series ​of attacks across Saudi Arabia, including on energy infrastructure," said Adam Turnquist, chief cross-asset strategist for LPL Financial. On Thursday, Saudi Aramco ordered the evacuation of its headquarters ​in Dhahran on the Gulf near Bahrain, Reuters reported. Fighting intensified between Saudi Arabia, the world's largest crude exporter and Yemen-based ⁠Houthis. An oil spill from a tanker was detected off the UAE coast of Umm Al Quwain, the United Arab Emirates Ministry of Climate Change and Environment said. It ​did not say what caused the spill and authorities have not identified the tanker involved. Shipping sources said on October 9 that the Gem No. 2 supertanker was struck ​by an unidentified projectile 13 nautical miles (24 km) west of Al Jazeera in the UAE. "The market is concerned about these continued Iranian attacks on tankers that we've seen increase over the last week," said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. "While there has been an increase in oil transiting out of the Strait of Hormuz, that could change at any minute." Clashes between the Houthis ​and a Saudi-led coalition that backs Yemen's internationally recognised government have raged since the Iran-aligned Houthis pushed towards Bab el-Mandeb Strait last month, a shipping chokepoint at the ​mouth of the Red Sea. October has been the worst month for attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and nearby waterways, according to data compiled by a Washington-based think tank ‌that has ⁠tracked maritime security incidents worldwide since 2017. Keep Watching President Donald Trump said on Friday the US could end the war with Iran quickly, but said perhaps Washington should allow the conflict to gradually wind down. The US Department of Energy said it had authorized an emergency exchange of up to 400,000 barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to address a supply disruption affecting Phillips 66's Lake Charles refinery in Louisiana. The SPR is already at the lowest level since 1982 after President Donald Trump tapped it as ​the US war on Iran disrupted supply ​lines. Trump's predecessor, President Joe Biden, ⁠also tapped the SPR following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Elsewhere, Germany's national oil stockpiling agency EBV circulated a tender to sell diesel, heating oil and crude oil volumes from strategic reserves. This marks Germany's first oil releases from strategic reserves since G7 countries, under pressure ​from Trump, agreed to do so at the start of October. Advertisement · Scroll to continue On Thursday, the head of Libya's National Oil Corp told ​Reuters that an oil ⁠pipeline valve from the Hamada and Tahara oilfields to Zawiya port had been shut, leading to a reduction in production at both fields. Ship tracking data showed the first Russian diesel bound for the US since Moscow and Washington reached an export agreement was aboard a tanker heading for New York. Trump announced the deal this month as part of efforts to bring down soaring ⁠diesel prices ​ahead of US midterm elections on November 3. US energy firms this week kept the total rig count ​unchanged for a second week in a row, energy services firm Baker Hughes said in its closely followed report on Friday. The total oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, ​held steady at 603 during the week ended October 23.

Oil prices jump $3 on Houthi attacks, oil spill, highest settlement since April (Reuters) - Oil prices ​settled more than $3 higher on Friday, their highest in nearly six months after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia stoked concerns over further disruption ‌to energy supplies from the Middle East, where UAE authorities also reported an oil spill. Brent crude futures settled at $116.72 a barrel, up $3.55 or 3.14%, their highest since April 29. US West Texas Intermediate crude closed at $103.27 a barrel, up $3.80 or 3.8%. Brent finished the week up 6% and WTI ended 2.3% higher. "Fears of supply disruptions drove the advance after Iranian-backed Houthi rebels carried out a series ​of attacks across Saudi Arabia, including on energy infrastructure," said Adam Turnquist, chief cross-asset strategist for LPL Financial. On Thursday, Saudi Aramco ordered the evacuation of its headquarters ​in Dhahran on the Gulf near Bahrain, Reuters reported. Fighting intensified between Saudi Arabia, the world's largest crude exporter and Yemen-based ⁠Houthis. An oil spill from a tanker was detected off the UAE coast of Umm Al Quwain, the United Arab Emirates Ministry of Climate Change and Environment said. It ​did not say what caused the spill and authorities have not identified the tanker involved. Shipping sources said on October 9 that the Gem No. 2 supertanker was struck ​by an unidentified projectile 13 nautical miles (24 km) west of Al Jazeera in the UAE. "The market is concerned about these continued Iranian attacks on tankers that we've seen increase over the last week," said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. "While there has been an increase in oil transiting out of the Strait of Hormuz, that could change at any minute." Clashes between the Houthis ​and a Saudi-led coalition that backs Yemen's internationally recognised government have raged since the Iran-aligned Houthis pushed towards Bab el-Mandeb Strait last month, a shipping chokepoint at the ​mouth of the Red Sea. October has been the worst month for attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and nearby waterways, according to data compiled by a Washington-based think tank ‌that has ⁠tracked maritime security incidents worldwide since 2017. President Donald Trump said on Friday the US could end the war with Iran quickly, but said perhaps Washington should allow the conflict to gradually wind down. The US Department of Energy said it had authorized an emergency exchange of up to 400,000 barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to address a supply disruption affecting Phillips 66's Lake Charles refinery in Louisiana. The SPR is already at the lowest level since 1982 after President Donald Trump tapped it as ​the US war on Iran disrupted supply ​lines. Trump's predecessor, President Joe Biden, ⁠also tapped the SPR following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Elsewhere, Germany's national oil stockpiling agency EBV circulated a tender to sell diesel, heating oil and crude oil volumes from strategic reserves. This marks Germany's first oil releases from strategic reserves since G7 countries, under pressure ​from Trump, agreed to do so at the start of October. On Thursday, the head of Libya's National Oil Corp told ​Reuters that an oil ⁠pipeline valve from the Hamada and Tahara oilfields to Zawiya port had been shut, leading to a reduction in production at both fields. Ship tracking data showed the first Russian diesel bound for the US since Moscow and Washington reached an export agreement was aboard a tanker heading for New York. Trump announced the deal this month as part of efforts to bring down soaring ⁠diesel prices ​ahead of US midterm elections on November 3. US energy firms this week kept the total rig count ​unchanged for a second week in a row, energy services firm Baker Hughes said in its closely followed report on Friday. The total oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, ​held steady at 603 during the week ended October 23.

Qalibaf meets Ayatollah Khamenei to discuss US-Israeli economic, military war against Iran - Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf has met with the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei, to discuss the latest developments in the country. Ayatollah Khamenei and Qalibaf discussed the latest developments in the military, economic, and cognitive warfare waged by the US and Israel against Iran. During the meeting, the Leader called for strengthening the country’s components of power and highlighted the effective role of members of parliament in preserving and consolidating social cohesion and national unity. He also praised the continued participation of Iranians in public gatherings in support of the Islamic Republic and the armed forces, describing it as “deterrent”. Ayatollah Khamenei called on the government and parliament to work together to address people’s economic issues, and to advance matters related to the country’s strategic partners. For his part, Qalibaf briefed the Leader on measures lawmakers have taken since the start of the latest US-Israeli war late in February, as well as the parliament’s current and future plans for addressing the country’s issues and challenges. The US and Israel launched the aggression against Iran on February 28, some eight months after carrying out unprovoked attacks on the country. Iran swiftly retaliated by launching barrages of missiles and drones at the Israeli-occupied territories, as well as US bases and interests across the region. Washington has signaled it is preparing to restart large-scale military aggression against Iran, with reports indicating the Pentagon has instructed Central Command to be ready for potential strikes. Iran has warned that any new attack will trigger a far more severe response than previous rounds. The secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaei, said recently that Iranian armed forces have prepared a “more devastating plan” that will not follow the “rules they are familiar with.”

2 Tankers Set Ablaze, Halted in Strait of Hormuz: IRGC - (Tasnim) – The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) said two non-compliant oil tankers were set ablaze and brought to a halt after hitting mines laid by the force’s naval unit in an unauthorized passage south of the Strait of Hormuz. In a statement issued on Tuesday, the IRGC said the incident occurred as its naval and aerospace forces continue monitoring regional developments and enforcing Iran’s control and management of the strategic waterway. The statement said the IRGC Navy had warned that passage through the mined route is illegal and would result in violators’ assets being set ablaze. It added that if the US “mischief” continues, oil companies will have to pay a heavier price. The IRGC also said its air defense forces have identified and destroyed the 54th MQ-9 drone belonging to the US military the previous night while monitoring the airspace over the Strait of Hormuz. The statement also praised the Iranian people for their steadfastness, saying their continued presence in the streets for more than 230 nights has inspired oppressed nations around the world.

Tanker involved in incident with military forces off Oman: UKMTO- A tanker was involved in an incident with military forces off the coast of Oman, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency (UKMTO) said Tuesday. It said the incident occurred Monday at 1000 GMT, approximately 121 nautical miles east of Duqm, Oman. “Reports indicate that the tanker was subject to interaction as part of ongoing military activity in the region,” UKMTO said. The agency said authorities were aware of the incident and investigations remained ongoing. It advised vessels operating in the area to monitor the latest maritime security information and remain alert to the evolving security situation. UKMTO did not provide details about the nature of the interaction or any possible casualties or damage. ​​​​​​​The incident comes amid heightened maritime tensions following the US-Iran military confrontation and continuing security concerns affecting shipping routes near the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran says supertanker carrying over 2 million barrels of oil hit mine near Hormuz - A supertanker carrying more than 2 million barrels of crude oil exploded and caught fire after striking a naval mine south of the Strait of Hormuz, the Navy of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said Tuesday. In a statement carried by state broadcaster IRIB, the navy said the vessel was committing violations and that it had switched off all its radar and navigation systems. The tanker ignored warnings from the IRGC Navy and was trying to leave the strait through an “unauthorized southern route” when it struck the mine, according to the statement. The navy did not identify the vessel or provide details about its flag, crew, possible casualties, or the extent of the damage. “Vessel owners and crews in the Gulf and the Sea of Oman are responsible for transiting unauthorized routes,” it said. “Any movement that disregards the security of this strait will be dealt with decisively,” it added.

Tanker struck by unknown projectile off Oman: UK maritime agency - A tanker was struck by an unknown projectile off the coast of Oman early Wednesday, sparking a fire that was later extinguished, the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency said. The incident occurred at 0145GMT, approximately 11 nautical miles west of Bukha, Oman, according to a UKMTO warning issued Wednesday. Local authorities reported that the projectile struck the tanker and caused a fire, which has since been extinguished. The vessel is now at anchor, the agency said. All crew members were reported safe, with no environmental impact reported at the time of the warning, it added. The UKMTO advised vessels transiting the area to proceed with caution and report any suspicious activity to the agency as authorities investigate the incident. The incident comes amid heightened maritime tensions following the US-Iran military confrontation and continuing security concerns affecting shipping routes near the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran Escalates Threat to Target Undersea Cables in Hormuz Strait: ‘All of the World’s Internet and Commercial Data Depend on Them’  Cryptocurrency punters remain skeptical that Iran will sabotage undersea cables to disrupt critical digital infrastructure, despite a renewed threat from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The betting crowd on Polygon based Polymarket priced in a 4% chance that Iran or any of its proxy groups, including Lebanon-based Hezbollah and Yemen's Houthis, physically damage undersea cable infrastructure by month-end. The probability of the attack occurring by year's end was 12%.  The odds shift as IRGC spokesperson Hossein Mohebi threatened to target undersea communication cables in the Strait of Hormuz, saying that "all of the world's internet and commercial data depend on them," reported Al Jazeera. Spokesman for Iran's IRGC, Brigadier-General Hossein Mohebi, has warned the US against renewed attacks and threatened to target internet cables passing through the Strait of Hormuz. https://t.co/V8uVRI4Qek pic.twitter.com/euP7RMEF0b — Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish)   October 19, 2026   Mohebi's comments came after Mohsen Rezaei, head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, warned that a return to intense fighting could endanger critical technology infrastructure, including cables, data centers, and AI facilities.The threats followed drone attacks in early March that damaged Amazon Web Services infrastructure in the UAE and Bahrain, causing physical damage, power disruptions and cloud service outages.More than 90% of data capacity between Europe and Asia passes through subsea fiber-optic cables running beneath the Red Sea, according to telecom data analytics firm TeleGeography.  Iran-backed Houthis control key coastal areas and shipping lanes at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the southern entrance to the Red Sea, giving Tehran another pressure point.

6,000 sailors trapped as attacks mount in one of world's key waterways   - Thousands of sailors remain stranded near the Strait of Hormuz amid escalating attacks on commercial ships, the United Nations' top maritime official warned Sunday after Iran accused the U.S. military of using an international emergency radio channel to threaten civilian crews. The warning also came amid reports that 24 ships had been attacked on the waterway over roughly two weeks, underscoring growing concerns about maritime safety in the region, according to Financial Times. "The situation continues to be severe and critical when it comes to international shipping," International Maritime Organization (IMO) Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez told Fox News Digital. "There is a double blockade and too many vessels have been attacked, particularly in recent days. "Seafarers have continued to perish in these attacks and around 6,000 seafarers remain trapped since the beginning of the conflict," he warned, adding that his message was not to transit the Strait of Hormuz or put seafarers at risk "until we have guarantees." Dominguez's warning followed an Oct. 9 letter to the IMO in which Iran alleged that the U.S. military used VHF Channel 16, an internationally designated maritime distress and safety channel, to intimidate Iranian crews in the Persian Gulf. "VHF Channel 16 has been repeatedly occupied for prolonged periods by the United States military forces operating in the Persian Gulf," the letter stated. "During such transmissions, Iranian seafarers have been addressed in Persian with threatening, abusive and provocative language and in certain instances urged to abandon their vessels." In a statement to Fox News Digital, U.S. Central Command defended its enforcement of the naval blockade of Iranian ports. "The U.S. naval blockade has been in place for months and is professionally communicated to all international mariners," CENTCOM said. "Vessels that refuse to comply with blockade enforcement receive multiple warnings, with ample opportunity to comply. "American forces remain highly vigilant, focused and professional while fully enforcing the naval blockade against Iran." Iran's complaint was submitted by Seyed Ali Mousavi and its ambassador to the IMO and circulated to member states on Oct. 9, according to a copy reviewed by Fox News Digital. Tehran also accused American forces of turning the maritime safety channel into an "instrument of military intimidation and psychological pressure against civilian crews." The letter cited commercial vessels, shipping companies and maritime operators but provided no recordings, transcripts or specific details of the alleged exchanges. Fox News Digital could not independently verify the accusations. "Seafarers are not trained for combat, and they are not guilty of any conflicts that are happening around the world," Dominguez said. "And we have seen this in several parts of the world where Channel 16, that should not be used for this kind of communication, starts receiving messages that may be perceived as actually threatening or that are outside the remit of why it was created." Iran also asked the IMO to raise its allegations with member states and relevant international organizations, potentially including the International Telecommunication Union. Dominguez said the IMO could review its regulations and procedures to determine whether stronger safeguards are needed, though he did not announce a formal investigation. "Our role here at IMO is that when those situations take place, we will then look into any technical measures or any operational aspects that we may need to clarify further within our regulatory framework," he said, stressing that member states have equal rights to raise concerns, regardless of the conflict. "We have a responsibility, and I have a duty as well, to circulate letters and notes that the countries actually put forward when they're also being affected."

Iran's IRGC Navy Says Seven Oil Tankers Struck in the Strait of Hormuz - - Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy said on Thursday that its forces struck four oil tankers that were transferring oil in the Strait of Hormuz and that another three ships struck mines as oil prices reached an 11-month high. The IRGC Navy warned that US bases would be targeted in the region if the US continues to encourage vessels to go through the strait. “The aggressor US military must know that, if this trend continues, the scope of confrontation will extend to the aggressor bases in the region. This is a serious warning,” the statement said.So far, the attacks haven’t been confirmed by other sources, but the UK Maritime Trade Operations recently said that it’s struggling to report on all the incidents in or near the Strait of Hormuz because the “majority” of attacked vessels are refusing to report to the organization. An oil tanker on fire near the Strait of Hormuz (PressTV)  For his part, President Trump is accusing Iran of making up attacks on ships. “Iran is doing everything they can to drive up the price of Oil prior to the U.S. Midterm Election. They are even making up fake hits, mines, and everything else, because more Oil is coming through the Hormuz Strait now than it did even prior to the beginning of the Conflict,” he wrote on Truth Social. Oil has continued to flow through the strait despite Iran dramatically increasing its attacks in recent weeks, since captains are reportedly being offered $100,000 a month to operate through the strait, but the shipments haven’t brought down the price of oil. Brent crude hit $112 per barrel on Thursday for the first time since May 18.The IRGC statement came as the US and Israel appear poised to launch another major attack on Iran either before the upcoming US and Israeli elections or after.

Iran War Updates: Trump accuses Iran of making up fake strikes on ships to drive up oil prices --President Trump accused Iran of making up the fact that ships in the Strait of Hormuz are hitting mines or being struck by missiles or drones, saying it was a bid to drive up oil prices before the midterms. The price of Brent crude oil surged about 4% on Thursday to $113 per barrel as Iran's Revolutionary Guard said it had attacked four vessels near the Strait of Hormuz for using a route that Tehran rejects. The IRGC said three other ships using that route hit sea mines and were forced to halt. The U.S. military has quietly reduced its footprint at posts in the Middle East due to ongoing threats and attacks by Iran and its Houthi allies in Yemen, sources told CBS News on Wednesday. The latest attack, on King Fahd International Airport in the eastern Saudi city of Dammam, has killed at least two people and injured eight more.  The U.S. Central Command posted a celebration Thursday of 100 days of its reinstated blockade on Iranian ships entering or exiting ports through the Strait of Hormuz.The blockade has prevented $25 billion in crude oil exports by Iran, according to CENTCOM.The blockade was reinstated on July 14 after the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding fell apart over the wording of one of the clauses. Iran believed it would determine navigation through the strait and withhold charging fees for at least 60 days. The U.S. said the wording in the memorandum did not allow for Iran to determine transit.Iran began targeting ships in the strait again and the U.S. reinstituted its blockade that initially ran from April 13 to June 18. The initial blockade redirected at least 140 ships attempting to transit the strait. The new one had redirected 138 ships as of the last U.S. update on Oct. 17."There have been no exports or imports to Iran by sea except for the humanitarian aid U.S. forces have allowed," the post added.

Iran-Russia relations closer than at any point in history: Araghchi - Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says Tehran and Moscow are enjoying the closest relations in their history, following talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Tehran on regional and global developments and the expansion of economic and nuclear cooperation. In a post on X on Tuesday, Araghchi said the two officials held “timely talks” covering regional and global developments. “We covered everything from Europe to West Asia, including Lebanon, Palestine, Ukraine and Yemen. Also focused on expansion of economic and nuclear cooperation,” he said. “Never in our history have Iran and Russia worked as closely as now,” Araghchi added. On Monday, Araghchi and Lavrov held talks and attended a joint press conference. During the news briefing, Araghchi highlighted the “close” cooperation and consultations between Tehran and Moscow, saying both sides believe regional issues cannot be resolved militarily and should instead be addressed through diplomatic and political channels. Araghchi also said that cooperation between Iran and Russia will play a proper role in establishing stability in the region. Heading a diplomatic delegation, the Russian foreign minister arrived in Tehran on Monday to meet top Iranian officials on his first visit since the launch of the US-Israeli war against Iran almost eight months ago.

Over 400 Activists Urge UN Intervention to Stop Execution of Warisheh Moradi -The “Free Warisheh Moradi Campaign” reported that 56 organizations and 383 political, civil, and human rights activists have signed a petition urging the United Nations to take immediate action to prevent the execution of political prisoner Warisheh Moradi. The letter was addressed to the UN Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on Iran and the UN Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Iran. Signatories highlighted that since Warisheh Moradi’s arrest in the summer of 2023, troubling reports of “torture” and “ill-treatment” during her detention have emerged. They also emphasized the fundamentally unfair nature of her judicial proceedings. The petition calls on the UN Fact-Finding Mission and the Special Rapporteur to utilize all available mechanisms within their mandates, including urgent appeals to the Iranian government, to demand that Islamic Republic authorities immediately stay her execution and refrain from taking any steps toward its implementation. They further urged UN officials to demand official guarantees from the regime that Moradi’s death sentence will not be carried out. Among other demands, the signatories requested that experts “raise Warisheh Moradi’s case publicly and in discussions with governments and international bodies in a position to help prevent her execution.” In the publicly released letter, the signatories noted that in similar cases, families and defense lawyers often receive minimal or no prior notice before executions are carried out, prompting their urgent call for immediate intervention by UN experts. Warisheh Moradi, also known as Joana Sanandaj, was born in 1985 and is a Kurdish political, women’s rights, and environmental activist. She was arrested in August 2023 near Sanandaj and spent roughly five months under interrogation in Ward 209 of Evin Prison, which is managed by the Ministry of Intelligence, before being transferred to the women’s ward, where she has remained in detention ever since. In November 2024, Moradi was sentenced to death by Branch 15 of the Tehran Revolutionary Court, presided over by Judge Salavati, on charges of “rebellion” (baghi). Branch 9 of the Supreme Court overturned the ruling in December 2025 due to investigative flaws and procedural violations, remanding the case to the Revolutionary Court for retrial. However, on October 14 of this year, Moradi’s defense counsel reported that the Revolutionary Court had reissued the death sentence against the female political prisoner.

Riyadh's iconic tower empties as Houthi attacks kill 13, push Egypt toward war  -- One of the most recognizable towers on the Saudi skyline has become the latest symbol of a kingdom operating under duress. The management of Kingdom Centre — the 99-story skyscraper that has anchored Riyadh's silhouette since 2002 — issued an urgent directive Sunday ordering all office-based employees to shift to remote work, effective immediately and until further notice, as Iran-backed Houthi rebels continued striking the Saudi capital with missiles and drones. Building management delivered the order by email — obtained by Agence France-Presse — without specifying a reason, though the timing left little room for ambiguity. Riyadh has been gripped by a security climate not seen in years, with repeated strikes targeting civilian infrastructure, aviation hubs and the broader urban core. The directive carries weight far beyond its architectural symbolism. The tower houses a cluster of globally prominent tenants, among them the International Monetary Fund, financial services giant Merrill Lynch and management consultancy McKinsey & Company. The simultaneous suspension of in-office work for institutions of that stature signals just how gravely the threat environment is being assessed at the highest levels of the international business community. Management declared remote work "mandatory," with the arrangement set to remain in place until further notice. One notable exception: the shopping center at the tower's base continued welcoming visitors, suggesting the security posture targets concentrated office populations rather than general public access — a distinction that has drawn skepticism from observers who question the internal logic of that carve-out.The Kingdom Centre directive did not emerge in a vacuum. It followed weeks of escalating Houthi aggression that turned Saudi civilian aviation into a recurring target. Houthi forces intensified their campaign against Saudi airports in early October, striking Riyadh, Abha, Jazan and Najran, while also targeting King Fahd International Airport in Dammam — though those strikes produced no reported casualties.The deadliest blow came on October 10, when a missile hit a passenger terminal at King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, killing at least 13 people and wounding 309 others, some of them critically. Saudi civil aviation authorities initially confirmed 12 deaths; the Indian Embassy in Riyadh subsequently announced that one of its nationals hospitalized from the attack had died of his wounds, raising the confirmed toll. The Saudi-led military coalition called the attack "a full-fledged war crime according to the Customary International Humanitarian Law," with spokesman Turki al-Maliki vowing a decisive response.Coalition data released October 15 showed that King Khalid International Airport had been hit in 20 separate Houthi attacks since the beginning of October, with 17 people killed and 333 injured at that airport between October 7 and 11. Adding the two fatalities at Abha's airport — where a Moroccan and an Algerian national were killed and 28 others wounded on October 7 — the combined toll across all targeted Saudi airfields reached 19 dead and 364 injured as of that date. The airport campaign has rippled well into the fabric of ordinary life in Riyadh. Schools in the capital extended remote-learning measures amid continued security threats, and King Khalid International Airport has remained closed since the October 10 strike. The day after that attack, the Houthis issued a warning to airlines, travelers and airport workers to stay away from Saudi airports entirely. The coalition, meanwhile, has pledged decisive retaliation and reports continued airstrikes against Houthi launch sites in Yemen. Two ballistic missiles fired toward the kingdom's southern region were intercepted, underscoring how wide the threat geography has grown — stretching from border zones to the heart of the capital itself. As conditions in Saudi Arabia deteriorate, regional powers are recalibrating their posture. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi called for an emergency session of the House of Representatives to authorize potential defensive military intervention in Saudi Arabia should Riyadh formally request it — a move that could draw one of the Arab world's most capable armed forces into the conflict. Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty, speaking to Bloomberg Television on the sidelines of the IMF annual meetings in Bangkok, stated that Egypt would respond to any Saudi request "without any reservation." Abdelatty also confirmed that Cairo is actively weighing membership in the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement — the security pact currently uniting Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan. In a separate exchange, Abdelatty spoke by phone with Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan, reiterating Egypt's condemnation of the attacks and affirming full support for the kingdom's security and stability. The Kingdom Centre episode crystallizes the bind Saudi Arabia now finds itself in. Coalition spokesman al-Maliki noted that Houthi attacks on the kingdom have intensified since early October, following an escalation campaign the group began in July — a trajectory showing no sign of reversal. What was once a conflict largely confined to Yemen's southern battlefields has been extended, with methodical precision, to the towers, terminals and schoolrooms of Riyadh itself. For international firms operating across the kingdom, the mandatory work-from-home order at Kingdom Centre may prove an early indicator of broader operational recalibrations ahead. The question is no longer whether Houthi pressure on Saudi Arabia will continue, but how long the kingdom's economy — and the global institutions embedded in its most iconic structures — can absorb the strain before more permanent adjustments become unavoidable.

Ansar Allah Strikes Military Training Camp in Yemen's Shabwah Governorate, Killing Over 50 -    The Ansar Allah-led Yemeni Armed Forces announced on Monday that its forces attacked the al-Alam camp in Yemen’s south-central Shabwa province, which it described as being run by “Saudi officers.” The local authority told Reuters that there were significant casualties, reporting that 53 people were killed and more than 200 were wounded. The report described al-Alam as a military training camp for the security forces of the Saudi-backed Yemeni government.Local media reported that among the wounded were members of the Security Belt Forces, a militia affiliated with the Southern Transitional Council, which has historically been backed by the UAE, though Saudi Arabia ousted the UAE from Yemen late last year and injected cash into the country to pay the salaries of the fighters that Abu Dhabi had supported. Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthis, claimed that the attack caused Saudi casualties, which so far haven’t been confirmed, and it warned Yemenis against joining the Saudi-backed forces. “We warn those who have been deceived against responding to the Saudi enemy’s calls to send them to their deaths with tainted money, sacrificing them instead of their own soldiers and showing no regard for their lives,” Ansar Allah military spokesman Yahya Saree wrote on Telegram.  Saree also announced a ballistic missile attack on Saudi-backed forces in the al-Saqiya and Ras al-Ara areas in the southwestern Lahj province, which has a coast on the Gulf of Aden, and claimed it resulted in “dozens of dead and wounded and the destruction of several vehicles.” Later, he issued another statement announcing a series of six attacks on Saudi Arabia, including strikes on airports and oil infrastructure.He said the attacks on Saudi Arabia came “in retaliation for the brutal Saudi aggression targeting our country and people, which has launched more than two hundred airstrikes and missile attacks during the past 48 hours, targeting civilian infrastructure in the capital, Sana’a, and the liberal provinces, leaving dozens of martyrs and wounded, most of whom are women and children.”A Saudi airstrike hit a civilian home in Yemen’s Saada province on Sunday, killing at least 10 people, including seven children. The US is strongly supporting the Saudi air campaign despite the large number of civilian casualties and is providing intelligence and refueling Saudi warplanes.

UK to deploy fighter jets to defend Saudi cities from Houthi attacks-  The U.K. said it would provide defensive military support, including fighter jets, to support Saudi Arabia as attacks by Iran-backed Houthi rebels escalate.  The Houthis, a Yemeni militant group, have launched a series of strikes on Saudi targets in recent weeks. Airport attacks in the capital city of Riyadh led to multiple fatalities, flight cancellations and property damage, while facilities belonging to oil giant Saudi Aramco were targeted last week.  “The continuing attacks from the Houthis on our ally Saudi Arabia are absolutely despicable. The targeting of the airport in Riyadh in particular shows the lengths the Houthis are going to escalate the situation in the region,” U.K. Defense Secretary Wes Streeting said in a statement on Tuesday.  He added that Royal Air Force Typhoon fighter jets will fly defensive air missions to help protect Saudi airspace from drones and missiles.   “This builds on the UK equipment and personnel we already have in the country to defend against Houthi air attacks,” Streeting said.  The U.K. Ministry of Defence also said that the fighter jets would operate only in a defensive role and would not conduct offensive strikes against the Houthis.  It said the Royal Air Force would also provide an Airbus A400M Atlas jet “to support the movement of defence materiel within Saudi Arabia,” while U.K. military advisers will also give support to Saudi staff officers.  “Escalating violence in the Gulf can have a serious impact at home in the UK — driving up the cost of living, disrupting energy supplies and costs to British businesses. It is also causing devastation to the civilian population in Yemen,” the MoD said.  “We unequivocally condemn the Houthi attacks on civilian targets like King Khalid International Airport and are clear that Saudi Arabia and the Republic of Yemen have the right to defend themselves.”  Yemen’s civil war has returned to full-scale fighting between the Houthis and the country’s internationally recognized government amid a wider regional escalation linked to the U.S.-Iran war.  Al Jazeera reported Monday that at least 53 people were killed when the Houthis launched three ballistic missiles at a military camp in southern Yemen. CNBC was not able to independently verify the reports.

Yemen Announces Six Operations against Saudi Targets As Explosions Rock Riyadh - (Tasnim) – Yemen’s armed forces launched a ballistic missile toward Riyadh on Tuesday, according to the Saudi-led coalition, as Yemeni forces reported six military operations against Saudi targets within 48 hours. Yemen’s armed forces announced six military operations against targets inside Saudi Arabia over a 48-hour period, including King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, Abha Airport, Aramco facilities in Yanbu and the Shaybah oil field, as Saudi authorities reported explosions in the capital on Tuesday and the Saudi-led coalition acknowledged a ballistic missile launch from Yemen toward Riyadh. Brigadier General Yahya Saree, spokesperson for Yemen’s armed forces, said Tuesday that the operations involved ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones and described them as retaliatory attacks. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s Civil Defense activated early-warning systems in Riyadh and Al-Kharj province on Tuesday, alerting residents to a potential threat. The warnings were followed by reports of air defense activity and several loud explosions in the Saudi capital. The Saudi-led coalition acknowledged that a ballistic missile had been launched from Yemen toward Riyadh, claiming that its forces had intercepted the projectile. Saudi Arabia’s Civil Defense later announced that “the danger in Riyadh has passed,” without providing further details about the threat or its origin.

One person killed and 8 injured in airport attack in Saudi Arabia  - Saudi Arabia’s General Authority of Civil Aviation said one person was killed and eight others were injured in Wednesday’s attack that hit the international airport in the eastern city of Dammam, an oil-producing area near Bahrain that is home to thousands of the industry’s foreign workers. Also Wednesday, the State Department said it ordered the departure from Saudi Arabia of nonemergency U.S. government employees and their family members in response to increased hostilities against Saudi Arabia by the Houthis. The agency cited attacks on civilian airports and other critical infrastructure that have resulted in civilian casualties and severe travel disruptions, and a senior administration official warned hostilities have the potential to escalate rapidly, including beyond the immediate area.The Dammam airport incident follows the deadliest series of attacks on Saudi Arabia in a decade earlier this month, when Houthi missile strikes hit the country’s key international airport in Riyadh. In the Oct. 10 strike, at least 12 were killed and hundreds injured.Houthis, who didn’t appear to immediately claim responsibility for the latest incident, have also threatened Red Sea shipping around the Bab al-Mandeb Strait off the coast of Yemen and attacked Saudi oil pipelines. The incidents have shaken Saudi Arabia and illustrated the ability of the Houthis to strike deep inside the country.Nearly eight months since the U.S. and Israel launched the war against Iran, the Houthi movement in Yemen that shares some ideology with Tehran is becoming an increasingly worrying dimension to hostilities in the Mideast.President Trump has stepped up threatening language aimed at Tehran but also said the U.S. won’t attack the country before the U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 3. Iran has long supplied Yemen’s Houthis with weapons and shares certain ideology with the group, including opposition to the influence in the region of the Saudi regime, the U.S. and Israel.In addition to the airport attack, the Saudi military said it has intercepted and destroyed four drones in the eastern part of its territory.

Why can't Saudi Arabia stop the Houthis' deadly attacks? -- Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia in recent weeks have inflicted severe losses on the kingdom, with missiles hitting energy infrastructure and civilian airports, killing at least 20 people. The Iranian proxy group has struck the headquarters of Saudi Aramco, the world's largest oil company, and is fighting Saudi-backed government forces for control of Yemen's coastline on the Red Sea, a vital waterway for global energy supplies. The fighting has put further upward pressure on oil and gas prices as Iran and the U.S. fight over the nearby Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia, despite its size, wealth and a substantial military, has appeared to be on the back foot as it faces the Yemeni rebels. The kingdom's opaque government releases regular statements about Houthi ballistic missiles and drones being intercepted, including five it said were destroyed Wednesday. But many have got through, including an Oct. 10 strike that killed 13 people at Riyadh's King Khalid Airport, including a U.S. citizen."No country can ever have a 100% interception rating, that just doesn't really exist," Elizabeth Dent, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told CBS News, but that "was a hell of a one to miss."Saudi Arabia spent $83 billion on defense last year, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute — far more than any other country in the Middle East, including Israel.So why has the kingdom struggled to stop the Houthi barrage? Saudi Arabia is vast and, analysts say, geographically vulnerable.  Its east, home to the kingdom's oil fields, is bordered by the Persian Gulf — all that separates Saudi Arabia from longtime foe Iran. Early in the war, Iran launched strikes targeting bases used by the U.S. in Saudi Arabia in retaliation for U.S. attacks.To the north, across Saudi Arabia's long border with Iraq, are Iran-backed militia groups that the Saudis — along with the U.S. — struck in July in response to dozens of attempted drone attacks on the kingdom's infrastructure and on U.S. installations in the region. To the south, Saudi Arabia shares a more-than-800-mile border with Yemen. A vast portion of the war-wracked nation is controlled by the Houthis. To Saudi Arabia's west, the Houthis have also been battling for control of the Red Sea's vital shipping lanes."Over the last eight months, they have been facing threats from every direction," said Dent."There is a lot of critical infrastructure: multiple airports, many pipelines, as well as extensive oil production and export infrastructure, military bases, government buildings, royal palaces, and so on," said Thomas Juneau, associate fellow at the Chatham House think tank's Middle East and North Africa Program. "It is simply extremely difficult to provide air defenses for all these sites over such a large area." "If the Houthis are able to hit Saudi infrastructure with only a minority of their attempted drone or missile attacks, it counts as a success for them and an embarrassment and a loss for Saudi Arabia," Juneau told CBS News.The ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have caused a global supply shortage of the interceptors used to shoot down ballistic missiles and other weapons, including the U.S.-made Patriot system used by Saudi Arabia and other American allies.U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, asked about Ukraine's longstanding request for Patriot interceptors, said Tuesday that "every other country in the world" also wants them. "I also talked to Saudi Arabia today. They'd like interceptors. Israel would like interceptors. We would like interceptors. Every country in the world would like interceptors," Rubio said, calling it "probably the most in-demand product right now in the defense field." "Demand coming from the international [market] is stronger than ever," Tim Cahill, president of missiles and fire control at Lockheed Martin, the world's biggest weapons manufacturer and maker of the Patriot interceptors, told CBS News last week when asked about the short supply.Saudi Arabia is secretive about its weapons systems and stockpiles, but CBS News reported in March that Gulf countries were seeking emergency resupplies of interceptors, while the Wall Street Journal and Associated Press have reported that the kingdom has sought air defense systems from Japan, South Korea, France, Britain, Pakistan and Egypt.Patriot interceptors are expensive, costing as much as $4 million per unit."If there's fear over utilizing or drawing down your resources," said Dent, "are you more reticent to pull the trigger?"Saudi Arabia has purchased 730 Patriot interceptors from Washington since 2020, according to U.S. military data, but even if it does have enough, the pricey missiles aren't ideal for combating everything in the Houthi arsenal. Patriots were designed to intercept ballistic missiles, and the Houthis have launched those at Saudi Arabia. But the rebels also have an array of relatively cheap drones, including weapons supplied by Iran, and locally made copies of Iranian attack drones.  These inexpensive weapons have been a key element in the Houthis' tactics, analysts say.   They can be launched in swarms, Allison Minor, a senior fellow in the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told CBS News. The Houthis "combine an overwhelming number of relatively cheap systems, namely drones, to distract and disrupt and exhaust, and then amid that, also weave in these more catastrophic missile attacks," she said.The Saudis' multi-layered air defense system is sophisticated, but Houthi drones and cruise missiles can change their trajectory, making them harder to track, said Dent, "so if one aspect of that layered defense system breaks down, it can create a gap in coverage, like what may have occurred for the airport attack.""This is a whole new ballgame," said Dent. "It's a tactic that requires some adjustments."One possible solution could be Ukrainian-developed drone interceptors, which cost in the thousands of dollars to manufacture and are produced in the tens of thousands annually, unlike Patriots, which are produced in the hundreds.  Saudi Arabia and some of its neighbors have already made deals with Ukraine to acquire such systems, but Dent said they won't be a quick fix as "a lot of what the Ukrainians have been implementing is very hands-on."  The systems require skilled operators, in other words, and they require training. Another issue is the Saudi personnel available to receive that training. Analysts do not rate the kingdom's military among the world's best, despite its huge defense budget. Saudi Arabia's armed forces have a reputation for being "structured and run according to the interests of its royal leadership, with an emphasis on regime security," said CBS News national security analyst Aaron MacLean. "You can spend all the money you want on your military and your missile defenses, but you also have to have a culture of readiness and excellence among the troops responsible," he said.   "If that's lacking, again, the problem is inherently a hard one: fighting intelligent people who really are trying to kill you and are willing to be quite creative in their pursuit of that goal," he said. "Some shots are going to get through."

Saudi Airstrike Kills Eight Yemeni Fishermen - - Saudi airstrikes struck two fishing boats off the coast of Yemen on Tuesday, killing at least eight fishermen, according to Yemeni media. According to the SABA news agency, vessels were struck off the al-Kadha coast in the Dhubab district of Yemen’s southwestern Taiz province near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, an area that was under the control of Saudi-backed forces until Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthis, took the territroy as part of its lightning offensive last month.Yemen’s Al Masirah TV aired footage that showed bodies and wreckage of small boats on the beach following the strikes. According to SABA, the Agriculture and Fisheries Ministry of Yemen’s Ansar Allah-led government, based in Sanaa, described the “targeting of fishermen while working in coastal waters, pursuing and attacking them as they tried to escape, as a crime against civilians.”The statement also “rejected claims by the Saudi-led coalition’s spokesman that traditional boats were being used to smuggle weapons, missiles and military equipment into Yemen, stressing that such allegations do not justify targeting civilian fishermen and their boats.”The Sanaa-based Health Ministry said that the first strike targeted a fishing boat that was anchored near the shore and that the second strike “targeted the surviving fishermen as they attempted to escape in another boat, killing them all.”A day earlier, Turki al-Maliki, spokesman for the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen, released footage that showed strikes on vessels he claimed were smuggling weapons, but so far there has been no statement from the coalition about Tuesday’s strikes.The Saudi-led coalition was known for bombing fishing boats during the war from 2015 to 2022. Human Rights Watch reported in 2019 that since 2018, the coalition killed at least 47 Yemeni fishermen, including seven children.Since Saudi Arabia reignited the war by launching airstrikes against the Sanaa International Airport in July, the renewed bombing campaign has had a devastating impact on Yemeni civilians, with at least 66 killed by airstrikes in September, according to the Yemen Data Project. The Saudi air campaign in Yemen is supported by the US, which provides intelligence and targeting support, and is again refueling Saudi fighter jets involved in the war after ending such support eight years ago due to pressure from Congress.

Saudi Attacks in Yemen Have Killed 155 Civilians Since July: Health Ministry - Saudi airstrikes and missile attacks in Yemen have killed at least 155 civilians and wounded 455 since Riyadh reignited the war by bombing the Sanaa International Airport on July 13, according to the Health Ministry within the Ansar Allah-led Yemeni government. The vast majority of the civilian casualties were inflicted in September and October, following the start of the ground offensive launched by Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthis.The Yemen Data Project, an independent organization, previously reported that at least 66 civilians were killed by Saudi airstrikes in Yemen in September, and found the single deadliest incident was the September 7 Saudi bombing of the Central Correction Prison in the northern al-Jawf province, where 35 civilians, including one child, were killed. A man holding the body of a child killed by a Saudi strike in Yemen’s al-Jawf province on October 12, 2026 (screenshot of footage from Al Masirah TV) Saudi airstrikes and the number of civilian casualties appear to have increased significantly in October. Health Ministry spokesman Dr. Anis Al-Asbahi said that in just 48 hours between October 16 and October 18, Saudi airstrikes killed 29 civilians and wounded 88.Recent bombings have included strikes on multiple civilian homes. An October 18 strike on a civilian home in Yemen’s northern Saada province killed at least 10 people, including seven children and one woman. An October 12 Saudi bombing of a home in the al-Jawk province killed nine people, including five children.The Saudi-led coalition in Yemen was notorious for bombing civilian areas during the war in Yemen from 2015 to 2022, and the current conflict has followed a similar pattern. The US is strongly backing the Saudi bombing campaign by providing intelligence and refueling Saudi warplanes, a form of support the US suspended back in 2018 due to pressure from Congress. Despite the US support, the civilian casualties in the Saudi air campaign receive very little coverage in US and other Western media, while more of the focus is on the Ansar Allah attacks in Saudi Arabia, which have also caused civilian casualties, though not on the same scale. Most notably was the October 10 strike on the King Khalid Airport in Riyadh, which killed 13 civilians, including one US citizen. On Wednesday, Ansar Allah struck the King Fahd International Airport in the eastern city of Dammam, killing at least two people. Ansar Allah has also been accused of killing civilians in its attacks on Taiz, which is encircled by the Ansar Allah-led Yemeni Armed Forces. Two teenage girls were reported killed by an Ansar Allah missile strike on a residential area of Taiz on Tuesday.The World Health Organization has recorded 1,574 total deaths and 6,939 injuries in Yemen since the war escalated, but it’s unclear what the breakdown is between civilian and militant casualties, as heavy ground fighting between Ansar Allah and Saudi-backed forces has continued.

Saudi Aramco tells staff to evacuate Dhahran as clashes with Yemen's Houthis continue (Reuters) - Saudi state oil company Aramco has told staff to evacuate its headquarters in Dhahran on the Gulf, six people with knowledge of the matter told Reuters on Thursday, as fighting between the world's largest crude exporter and Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis intensifies. Clashes between the Houthis and a Saudi-led coalition that backs Yemen's internationally recognised government have raged since the group pushed towards Bab el-Mandeb, a shipping ​chokepoint at the Red Sea's mouth. The instruction to staff to evacuate the building and work remotely follows a wave of Houthi attacks on the kingdom, targeting the company and Saudi airports. The company did not immediately respond to a request for comment on what would be the first evacuation since the start of the Iran war. It was unclear what the reason for the evacuation was. The kingdom's benchmark index .TASI dropped 2.5% on Thursday following the Aramco news, according to LSEG data. Oil prices rose to their highest since May on Thursday on concern over an escalation of the Middle East conflict and its impact on crude oil supplies from the world's key exporting region. Saudi Arabia reportedly launched 1,600 airstrikes in three weeks - the Houthis are still fighting the Yemeni offensive there to work for good, not just Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree said in a televised speech that the group had launched attacks on Aramco facilities in the Red Sea city of Yanbu and the Saudi defense ministry in the capital Riyadh. Saudi authorities did not confirm the attack. The Saudi-led coalition said on Thursday it had intercepted drones over Riyadh and Islam's holy city of Medina, which is near Yanbu. The renewed fighting between Saudi Arabia and Houthi militias in recent weeks ended a 2022 UN-brokered truce, which had largely halted cross-border attacks, and opened another front ​in the US-Israeli ⁠war on Iran. The Houthis caused extensive damage to Aramco's headquarters earlier this month when they struck the building, with fire spreading across several floors. Saudi Arabia has responded to Houthi attacks with a wave of strikes on missile launcher sites, vowing to protect the kingdom, and says it has intercepted many ballistic missiles fired by the group. Saree said that Saudi attacks on Yemen have killed and wounded 562 people since mid July, when the Houthis imposed a naval blockade on the kingdom which then drew a warning from the Saudi-led coalition that it ​would respond "firmly". Separately, he said earlier on Thursday that the group is rescuing a boat carrying 14 Indians that was attacked off Jabal Zuqar island near the strait, one of the territories the group seized in an advance in September. A Houthi attack on King Fahd International Airport in Saudi Arabia's eastern oil hub of Dammam near Dhahran on Wednesday evening killed two people, a Saudi citizen and an Indian national, and wounded eight others. Saudi Arabia's General Authority of Civil Aviation said on Thursday that operations at the airport had resumed and air traffic had returned to normal. Authorities in Saudi Arabia on Wednesday blamed Iran-backed Houthi militants for a new attack on a civilian airport that resulted in casualties, as the U.S. said it was pulling some diplomatic personnel from the country in response to continuing threats from the Yemen-based group.

Report: US Troops and Diplomats Evacuating Posts Across the Middle East -  The US military has been scaling back its presence at bases across the Middle East, and the US has ordered staff reductions at multiple diplomatic posts in the region, NBC News reported Wednesday, amid growing signs that the US and Israel may be preparing to launch another attack on Iran. Sources told NBC that similar drawdowns were carried out before the US and Israel launched the war against Iran on February 28. US troops at bases in Jordan are among those that have been moved as Iran pounded the facilities during exchanges of strikes in the summer, attacks that caused significant US casualties. The US is also pulling troops out of facilities in Kuwait and Qatar.One US official told the outlet that moving troops out of harm’s way was part of the US military’s planning as President Trump considers restarting “major combat operations” against Iran potentially before or after the November 3 US midterm elections. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also appears eager to restart the bombing campaign as he’s facing elections in less than a week.The NBC report said that on Wednesday, chiefs of mission at multiple diplomatic posts in the Middle East were notified they would operate with reduced staff. State Department spokesman Tommy Pigott denied an earlier report from Reuters that said the US was preparing to issue an order for the departure of some personnel and family members at US embassies across the region, but acknowledged that such an order has been given for Saudi Arabia.“The US Department of State issued an ordered departure for non-emergency US government employees and their family members in Saudi Arabia only,” Pigott said.Saudi Arabia continues to face major attacks from Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthis, since Riyadh reignited the war by bombing the Sanaa International Airport. The US is strongly supporting the Saudi bombing campaign in Yemen, which has inflicted significant civilian casualties, by providing intelligence and refueling Saudi warplanes.“Iranian-supported Houthis have increasingly engaged in hostilities against Saudi Arabia, including attacks on civilian airports and other critical infrastructure resulting in civilian casualties and severe travel disruptions,” Pigott said. “The safety and security of Department personnel and their families remain our highest priority, and we will continue to take all necessary steps to protect and support them.”

Israel Flew Dozens of Fighter Jets Near Iran's Border on Monday: Axios - Dozens of Israeli fighter jets flew near the border of Iran on Monday, according to a report from Axios, a move that may have been meant to provoke an Iranian attack.The report, which cited unnamed US and Israeli officials, said that the Israeli warplanes flew through Syrian and Iraqi airspace, following a flight path consistent with potential strikes against Iran.The sources told Axios reporter Barak Ravid that Israel notified the US ahead of time and described the provocative flight as a “power projection” aimed at deterring Iran from attacking Israel before the October 27 Knesset elections. But US officials were left with the impression that Israel was hoping the Iranians would fire at the aircraft.Netanyahu may benefit from a renewed conflict before the elections, and if Iranian missiles are striking Israel, it could actually postpone the vote. In the days leading up to election day, he has ramped up his rhetoric, declaring on Wednesday that he’s directed the IDF and the Israeli spy agency Mossad to “overthrow the Iranian regime.”The US and Israel have been closely coordinating, and the Israeli Air Force operation near the Iranian border occurred the same day that US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth was in Israel and met with Netanyahu, though Axios’s sources said the meeting wasn’t related to the flight.

Netanyahu Says His Directive to the Israeli Military Is to 'Overthrow the Iranian Regime' - - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Wednesday that his directive to the Israeli military is to “overthrow the regime in Iran” as he continues to ramp up his rhetoric in the days before the October 27 Israeli elections.“My directive to the IDF, the Mossad, and the defense establishment… [is] to overthrow the regime in Iran,” Netanyahu told a group of graduating IDF officers, according to The Jerusalem Post.  The Israeli leader went on to claim that Iran’s new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, is pursuing nuclear weapons, a claim he’s been making about the Islamic Republic for decades.“The Iranian regime still has not learned its lesson. Mojtaba Khamenei decided to follow in his father’s footsteps and has released the safety catch, and Iran is once again trying to develop weapons of death,” he said. “Iran is once again attempting to develop a nuclear bomb.”While both Netanyahu and President Trump continue to frame the conflict as being about preventing a nuclear-armed Iran, there was no evidence either before the June 2025 war or the current war that Tehran had decided to pursue nuclear weapons, and that was the consensus of the US intelligence agencies. Netanyahu also referenced Trump’s suggestion that the US and Israel will “finish the job” against Iran, something the US president said when endorsing Netanyahu for Israel’s elections.“And so, as long as they are here, as long as they are willing to join a threatening and terrible weapon, the State of Israel is in existential danger. And our role, the role of all of us, is to save the nation. My good friend, President Trump, also believes that this is the only way,” Netanyahu said.“He said a few days ago, ‘We are ready to finish the job, to finish the job, he said. We are ready to finish the job, but we will do it only with you, the State of Israel.’ And this is exactly what we will do,” he added.The Financial Times reported on Wednesday that Netanyahu wanted to resume bombing Iran earlier this month and that the IDF was ready to start the strikes on October 10, but that Trump decided not to restart the conflict before the November 3 US midterm elections.The report said that the strikes would have targeted Iran’s nuclear facilities, government sites, and civilian infrastructure, and that if Trump had given the green light, the attacks would have been heavier than the ones launched when the war began on February 28.

WFP Says It's 'Drastically Reducing' Aid To Gaza as Israel Continues Daily Attacks - - The UN’s World Food Program said on Monday that it was being forced to “drastically reduce” aid to Gaza due to funding shortfalls, a statement that came as Israel continued its relentless attacks across the besieged Palestinian territory.The WFP said the funding cuts will reduce the number of people in Gaza it supports with cash and food aid from 1.6 million to 1.5 million, and that it is cutting food rations in half and reducing hot meals from 250,000 to 150,000 per day.“Families living in hard-to-reach areas, including near the yellow line of Israeli military control, will receive a hot meal every other day instead of daily,” the WFP said. Citing data from the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, the WFP said that an estimated 1.4 million people, or 67% of Gaza’s population, are experiencing acute food insecurity at crisis levels or worse.The WFP also said that it was forced to reduce assistance in the Israeli-occupied West Bank and that it would need $450 million to “maintain critical operations in Gaza and the West Bank over the next six months.”The WFP announcement came after Israel halted the shipment of commercial goods into Gaza last week, cutting off another supply of food and other vital goods. Israel claimed the decision was made on behalf of Gaza merchants who dispute a dispute with Hamas, but Palestinians involved in importing goods into Gaza denied that claim, saying it was a unilateral Israeli decision.The Israeli military’s occupation authority, COGAT, said on Monday that the shipment of commercial goods into Gaza would gradually resume, though it said it wouldn’t allow merchants paying any fee to Hamas to import goods, suggesting it will keep tight control over the shipments.Also on Monday, the Palestinian news agency WAFA reported that two children were killed by an Israeli drone strike near Khan Younis, southern Gaza, marking the second day in a row that the IDF killed at least two children in the Strip. A third Palestinian was also killed by an Israeli drone attack in Gaza City.  Gaza’s Health Ministry said in its daily update on Monday that at least four Palestinians were killed and 22 were injured by Israeli attacks over the past 24 hours. Since the so-called ceasefire deal was signed in October 2025, the IDF has killed at least 1,522 Palestinians and wounded 5,421.

Israeli Defense Minister Katz Says Over 60 Lebanon Villages Have Been Destroyed -   -- Last week, the New York Times released the results of its investigation into the ongoing Israeli invasion and occupation of southern Lebanon and found that some 48 towns and villages had been destroyed by IDF forces. Defense Minister Israel Katz, in a weekend appearance on Israel’s Channel 14, bragged that the number is even higher.Katz boasted in the appearance that more than 60 villages were actually destroyed outright. “Every single village, we’re talking about 23,000 homes, is in ruins,” Katz declared before a cheering studio audience, before adding “there are no residents left, 200,000 people have been displaced.”The comments appear to leave little doubt that Katz is presenting the systematic destruction of civilian infrastructure as a primary goal of the ongoing war in Lebanon, and with elections approaching, one that Katz seems to be seeking to emphasize. “This is the Gaza model. That’s what we’ve been implementing,” Katz declared at the end of laying out those details. The “Gaza model” has been presented time and again by the Israeli right as something to adopt in their various other offensive wars. Since it amounts to a level of wholesale destruction that is already bringing Israel charges of genocide for what happened in Gaza, the attempt to expand the policy abroad seems like it would be controversial, though the Israeli right seems to be campaigning almost exclusively on escalating and expanding the range of such attacks.While Israeli officials have tried to frame Katz as less extreme than some other members of the cabinet, the defense minister has repeatedly pushed narratives toward further aggression. Indeed, just a few days ago he issued a statement threatening to expand the permanent occupation deeper into Lebanon and to totally annihilate Lebanon’s Shi’ite community.This puts the destruction in Lebanon in a position somewhat district from the indiscriminate violence in Gaza. While Israel is eagerly destroying much of the infrastructure in Lebanon as well, Katz has repeatedly made clear that Israel is deliberately targeting Shi’ites within Lebanon, destroying Shi’ite majority villages, and expelling Shi’ite civilians from their homes. While there were already serious war crimes concerns under international law for the indiscriminate violence against civilians, deliberately targeting a single religion puts the crime in a potentially whole new category of religious persecution and violence. Israel invaded Lebanon in early March, and has expanded the offensive north of the Litani River. Though there are notionally some diplomatic deals in place with Lebanon at this point, none of them require Israel to stop attacking or occupying, and attacks on Lebanese towns continue daily. Lebanese PM Nawaf Salam is seeking international support for convincing Israel to withdraw from southern Lebanon, and international help to reconstruct what has been destroyed. Since Katz has repeatedly presented southern Lebanon as a “permanent” buffer zone Israel intends to control, that’s an uphill battle on both accounts.

Israeli guards assault female Palestinian detainees, force them to remove headscarves: Rights group A Palestinian prisoners’ advocacy group says Israeli prison guards have forcibly removed the headscarves of female Palestinian detainees, physically assaulted them, and fired tear gas into their cells and bathing areas. In a report issued on Monday, the Asra Media Office (AMO) said the abuse had caused health problems among several detainees, including a pregnant woman. The rights group said an Israeli police officer forced female Palestinian detainees to remove their headscarves for hair inspections and undo their braids, before placing 17 of them in solitary confinement. The group denounced the incident as a “violation of their privacy.” The AMO noted that Israeli soldiers made several inmates lie face down on the ground for an hour, beat them and then led them into cells filled with tear gas. Prison guards also sprayed pepper spray into a room holding 15 female detainees, including elderly women, causing several to vomit. According to the group, one detainee had to be removed from the room after fainting, while another was left unable to walk. The AMO called for immediate action to protect Palestinian women detainees from abuse and violations in Israeli prisons and ensure they receive the medical care they need. Thousands of Palestinians remain in Israeli prisons, where human rights organizations have repeatedly documented violations of detainees’ rights under the Geneva Conventions. Palestinian detainees are held in Israeli prisons under dire conditions, facing inadequate sanitation, systematic abuse, intimidation, and other forms of mistreatment. The Palestine Detainees Studies Center says around 60 percent of Palestinians held in Israeli detention suffer from chronic health conditions, with some dying in custody or shortly after their release due to the severity of their illnesses.

Jerusalem Church Leaders Strongly Condemn Jewish Settler Attack on Christian West Bank Village - Christian leaders in Jerusalem have released a statement strongly condemning an attack by Jewish settlers against the Christian village of Taybeh and visiting European diplomats in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, and the “terror” that Palestinians are facing from settlers across the territory.The attack near Taybeh targeted Palestinians, Belgian, French, and Polish diplomats, as well as a French mayor. The statement from the Patriarchs and Heads of Churches in Jerusalem, which includes Catholic, Orthodox, and Protestant leaders, condemned the “heinous attack carried out on Saturday, 17 October, by masked settlers in Taybeh against local residents during the olive harvest, and against the foreign guests, including diplomats and officials from European countries.”It said that the “wild attack on the Christian village of Taybeh and against its peaceful population is not an isolated incident,” noting that in recent weeks the “Palestinian villages of the West Bank have been exposed to a wide-scale terror by settlers, which is reaching a peak during this time of the olive harvest, when families go to their lands to collect what they need to live and renew their generations-long bond with their land.”The Christian leaders also condemned a religious ruling from Rabbi Dov Lior, a leading figure in the religious Zionism and settler movements, that said Jews had the right to steal olives from Palestinian orchards in the West Bank.“In this regard, we consider the religious ruling recently published, allowing Jews to take the olives of Palestinians, as unfounded, very worrying and dangerous, and absolutely unacceptable. We very much appreciate that several rabbis and Jewish voices have publicly rejected it,” the Christian leaders said.The statement noted that Israeli police made arrests following the attack on Taybeh and expressed hope that “this enforcement will continue in a serious and consistent manner and will not remain an isolated measure.”Taybeh, the last entirely Christian village in the West Bank, has faced relentless pressure and attacks from Israeli settlers, which have continued despite international attention on the village. Following the latest attack, US diplomats visited Taybeh, but US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee attended a settler conference that same day.Huckabee has condemned certain settler attacks but has defended the settler movement as a whole and maintains that Jews have a God-given right to Palestinian land. Huckabee is a Christian Zionist, an ideology that the Patriarchs and Heads of Churches in Jerusalem previously described as “damaging.”

Ukraine Hits Oil Sites in St. Petersburg as It Launches Over 1,000 Drones at Russia - - Ukrainian drones hit an oil depot and an oil export facility in St. Petersburg, Russia, on Sunday, setting the facilities on fire as Ukraine continues targeting Russian oil infrastructure despite President Trump claiming he’s opposed to such attacks. Aleksandr Beglov, the governor of St. Petersburg, said on Telegram that one person was killed and five others were injured by the Ukrainian attack. He said that 12 apartment buildings and two private homes were damaged in the attack and that there were fires at the Petersburg oil terminal and the Ruchyi oil depot.While Trump has expressed opposition to Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, the strikes are known to be supported by US intelligence, and there’s no sign that support has been suspended since the attacks continue. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed the US deliberately reduced Ukraine’s Starlink capability last week, and Reuters reported that the White House ordered the throttle, but US Secretary of State Marco Rubio denied those claims.  “I don’t know what Zelensky said, I’m not sure Zelensky knows what he’s talking about, but it wasn’t deliberate,” Rubio said on Saturday. “We had nothing to do with that. I don’t, the United States, nobody ordered that Starlink speed to be slowed down. It sort of happened, but my understanding is it’s been restored, it’s back to what it was before.”Rubio also denied that Ukraine ever had access to the US military’s version of Starlink, known as Starshield, but had requested it. “Starshield is a contract with the US military, it has nothing to do with Ukraine. I know Ukraine wants access to Starshield, they do not have Starshield now. They’ve asked for access to it in order to conduct deep strikes inside of Russia. They do not have access to it at this moment. Those are two different products,” he said. Regarding the Ukrainian attacks on Sunday, Alexander Drozdenko, the governor of the Leningrad Oblast, the region that surrounds St. Petersburg, said that 135 Ukrainian drones were intercepted over Leningrad, making it one of the largest attacks on the region of the war. According to Russia’s TASS news agency, the largest attack occurred on June 6, 2026, when Russian forces intercepted 144 drones.The attacks on St. Petersburg and the Leningrad Oblast were part of a major Ukrainian attack on Russia that involved more than 1,000 drones. The Russian Defense Ministry said that its forces shot down 1,015 Ukrainian drones over multiple Russian regions and the Black Sea.Russian attacks also continued in Ukraine on Sunday, with strikes in the southern city of Zaporizhzhia killing a woman and injuring two, including a six-year-old, according to The Associated Press. The Russian Defense Ministry said that its strikes included attacks on “military industry enterprises, energy infrastructure facilities used in the interests of the AFU, as well as ships involved in the delivery of military cargo to Ukraine.”

Bombshell: Lithuanian Defense Minister Reveals Ukrainian Drones Used in St. Petersburg Attack Came From Polish Airspace --Last night Ukraine launched another large-scale attack on the St. Petersburg region, which according to reports was the largest of the war as it targeted multiple different enterprises, including oil and data center facilities.The Ukrainian operation against Saint Petersburg, Russia, has been the largest in this war against this Russian city.Three major targets were hit during this operation:

- The local oil terminal respectively the oil storage units
- The VKontakte Datacenter
- The local Ozon logistics hub

The biggest story surrounding the attack, however, is that once again Ukraine utilized NATO airspace to carry out the attack and, presumably, to bypass Russian air defenses. Before we get into the details, let us first bring reminder of the last time this happened during the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in June of this year, which we covered in the following piece: Ukraine's SPIEF Attack Aims for Max Provocation, as Drones Witnessed Coming From Baltic Direction - Ukraine launched a major drone attack on Russia’s St. Petersburg to coincide with the annual St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF). The purpose was obviously to humiliate Russia in front of its many international attendees, which included US State Department personnel and foreign dignitaries.You’ll recall that we geolocated and triangulated the drone trajectories during that attack and concluded that based on the vantage point of the cameras, at least some of the drones which hit the St. Petersburg oil terminal were in fact coming from the westerly direction as follows:  The article also included a video taken from a Russian boat that showed a Ukrainian drone skimming the Baltic Sea at an area we guessed to be near the border of Estonia. But now, we have definitive confirmation from last night’s attacks: The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Spokesman admitted that Lithuanian airspace was utilized by Ukrainian drones, but blamed it on “Russian electronic warfare”:  The full statement: We regret the incident that occurred this morning in Lithuanian airspace, which may have resulted from Russian electronic warfare diverting drones during an operation against legitimate military targets in Russia. We apologise for any disruption, risks, and concern this may have caused. We are committed to sharing all relevant information with our Lithuanian partners to establish the full circumstances of the incident. We will continue to work closely together to prevent similar incidents in the future.We sincerely thank Lithuania, our ally, for supporting Ukraine in countering Russian aggression, which is the root case of the security threats in our region. Some Russian channels have mapped the incident as follows, utilizing the air alerts and civil warnings that were issued in various central Lithuanian counties, as well as those in bordering regions of Latvia:Speculation continues that the drones traveled through Russian territory, skirting around Belarus, and then swung west into Latvian and Estonian territory for the final stretch of the mission. But that makes little sense, and would not explain why Lithuania had air alerts, which is quite far from Russian borders. Recall my logical critique from the earlier article: If Russian electronic warfare was so inimitable as to be able to thwart the Ukrainian drones to somehow veer all the way into Lithuania as claimed by the Ukrainian spokesman—a country that does not even remotely border Russia (not counting Kaliningrad)—then why wouldn’t the same all-powerful electronic warfare systems be able to keep all drones from hitting their targets in St. Petersburg?As far as we know, most of the targets were in fact hit. Why would Russia have extremely effective electronic warfare systems positioned in the unpopulated hinterlands east of Belarus, yet have none of the same “powerful” systems anywhere near St. Petersburg which could have easily deflected the Ukrainian drones into the Baltic Sea just as they so easily deflected them into Lithuania according to these claims? In short: The EW warfare explanation is an obvious fraud.But in a shocking plot twist, a Reuters report quoted the Lithuanian Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas as casually revealing that the drones in fact “came from Poland”:

NATO Deploys Planes, Drones, and Radar Systems to the Black Sea - - On Tuesday, Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev disclosed that a US Navy P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol and reconnaissance aircraft, tasked to NATO, had begun patrols over the Black Sea. Bulgaria, which joined NATO in 2004, the EU in 2007 and the “Eurozone” this year, requested NATO assistance following escalating drone attacks on merchant ships in the Black Sea. Last week, the cargo ship Dignity, a Guinea-Bissau-flagged vessel, was sunk and the Ukrainian-operated coastal freighter Chelsea, a Malta-flagged vessel, was disabled. Both ships were struck by drones approximately 20 miles off the coast of Bulgaria. According to Stars and Stripes, NATO’s top decision-making body, the North Atlantic Council, held a meeting on Tuesday to discuss Black Sea security concerns. In a press statement, US Army Col. Martin O’Donnell, Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe spokesman, said, “Allies have or will send additional maritime patrol aircraft, radar systems, explosive exploitation teams, intelligence personnel, drones, and more to the Black Sea.”According to the Kyiv Independent, in a press statement, NATO spokesperson Allison Hart said, “NATO has already strengthened our posture along the eastern flank, including with counter-drone capabilities…We will continue to stand united and ensure that we are ready and able to address any threat and to keep our one billion people safe.”Neither NATO nor the national governments of any of its 32 member nations have directly accused Russia of the recent drone attacks, while Ukraine has. Two weeks ago, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky blamed Russia for sinking the Alfa Watan, a Togo-flagged cargo ship. Last week, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha directly blamed Russia for the attacks on the Dignity and Chelsea.It remains unclear whether Russia conducted those specific attacks, but both Russia and Ukraine have conducted confirmed attacks on each other’s interests in the Black Sea. Two weeks ago, Ukraine struck an oil tanker with drones off the Russian coast near Sochi.Black Sea shipping is vital to global food and energy security, and the recent escalation of attacks comes at a time when the American and Israeli war against Iran has critically degraded Middle East energy production. Experts have warned that a global famine could be brought about if these conflicts are not resolved.The United Nations’ “Black Sea Initiative” of 2022 sought to stabilize agricultural shipping during the war but was abandoned during the summer of 2023. With no end in sight to the war that has raged for almost five years, the deployment of NATO assets to the Black Sea signals the potential for even more escalation.

China Imposes Export Curbs On Drones, Heavy Machinery - China said on Monday it would expand curbs on drone exports and restrict the sales of some heavy machinery to "sensitive countries" with which the communist regime has disputes. Exporters will need a license to ship certain types of drones, such as those capable of traveling more than 300 km (186 miles) or flying beyond the natural line of sight, China's Ministry of Commerce said in an Oct. 19 statement, citing national security grounds. The drones' engines, operating systems, and technologies used for manufacturing will also be subjected to controls. Other affected products include some tunnel-boring machines, walking excavators, and high-altitude concrete-spraying machines - all sophisticated machinery for building railway and road tunnels through mountains, according to a separate press release. Decades of investment have helped China become the world's major supplier of tunnel-boring machines. Chinese media have long touted that the country makes 70 percent of such machines around the globe. Among the leading manufacturers are state-owned China Railway Engineering Equipment Group, whose website said its machines are delivered to overseas projects in 36 countries, including Italy, Australia, and Peru. Separately, the regime's commerce ministry announced export restrictions on key components of dredgers, including heavy-duty pumps used to scoop up mud and sand from the seabed. Overseas companies and individuals will be barred from transferring China-sourced dredger-related items to "sensitive countries and regions that have disputes with China," the ministry said. Beijing didn't name any specific country. But some analysts, including Brookings Institution fellow Kyle Chan, said India could be a likely focus. The two neighbors have longstanding border disputes that escalated into war in the 1960s. China has invested heavily in developing its dredger industry, with state-owned CCCC Dredging being the country's leading producer and contractor. All three new export restrictions will be enforced beginning Nov. 18. A ministry spokesperson said these newly added products have "clear dual-use characteristics," meaning they can be used for both military and civilian purposes. Chinese officials had already notified trading partners through export-control dialogue mechanisms ahead of the announcement, the spokesperson added. The ministry also signaled tightened checks on dual-use products. Customs officers will detain goods and question export operators if they suspect a shipment includes controlled items. Exporters will have seven working days to respond and submit required documents such as contracts and receipts. The rules take effect immediately and also apply to cross-border e-commerce, mail, and travelers' luggage.