week ending Oct 3

Lisa Cook says AI surge risks wider inflation through energy and labor - Federal Reserve board of governors member Lisa Cook said Monday that rising demand for artificial intelligence is leading to “broadening” inflationary impacts, with implications for the entire economy.During a keynote speech at the Oakland Tech Week conference, Cook noted that prices for Al-related goods, including chips, computers and software, have “surged” in the past year.“I believe that some of these steep price increases reflect a shift in demand toward AI-related sectors rather than an increase in economy-wide demand,” she noted, adding that supply chains will adjust and resolve the resulting price pressures “without policy intervention.”Annual inflation has remained above the Fed’s 2 percent target for five-plus years and was 3.4 percent last month, as measured by the consumer price index.The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the personal consumption expenditures price index, the central bank’s preferred inflation metric, Wednesday morning. While Cook argued the central bank attempting to fight “sector-specific inflation” via monetary policy tools “could be a mistake,” she acknowledged “some economy-wide pressure” from AI demand.   “Data center investment relies on inputs, like construction labor and energy, that are broadly used in many sectors in the economy. As a result, increased AI investment could introduce price pressure to those other sectors,” she said.“You can see signs in the inflation data that the pressure may be broadening,” Cook later remarked, pointing to increased electricity and water costs.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which Cook is a member of, voted unanimously earlier this month to raise interest rates by a quarter point amid persistent inflation. The decision came despite President Trump calling on the rate-setting panel to cut rates.Cook, whose firing by Trump was blocked by the Supreme Court over the summer, noted Monday that inflation “has been too high for too long.”  But the Fed governor did not commit to any future monetary policy decision, noting the “number and magnitude of any future adjustments” will depend on how the economy reacts to the Fed’s recent rate hike. “Looking ahead, I will consider what policy rate may be needed to continue to guide inflation down to our target,” Cook said.Traders are pricing in a roughly 70 percent chance that the FOMC will again hike interest rates by a quarter point at its next meeting in late October, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Fed’s preferred measure of inflation dips to 3.4 percent in August --The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation dipped in August, as multiple central bank officials have said future interest rate hikes could be on the horizon.The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.3 percent from July to August and was up 3.4 percent year over year, according to data released Wednesday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)Excluding more volatile food and energy prices, annual inflation in August was at 3 percent, the PCE data shows. Food and energy prices rose by 0.2 percent from July to August, after increasing by 0.1 percent from June to July. Changes to the BEA’s methodology for calculating the PCE index took effect on Wednesday. The bureau altered how it calculated spending on portfolio management, legal services and computer software, although it is unclear how those tweaks impacted the latest PCE data.The latest inflation measurements were below projections from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, which estimated annual prices would be up by 3.7 percent year over year in August. The Cleveland Fed also projected core inflation, which excludes food and energy, at 3.4 percent.   The popular inflation metric measured prices as being up 3.7 percent in July, the same as June. Inflation has remained above the Fed’s 2 percent target for more than five years, rising this year amid the Iran war.Despite the decline in PCE inflation, Navy Federal Credit Union chief economist Heather Long said the data “confirm progress on cooling inflation has stalled.”Long wrote Wednesday on the social platform X, “The trend line is clear: Inflation — even Core PCE — remains stuck at 3% (or more). Annual revisions made the numbers look a little cooler, but it didn’t change the trend.”Robin Brooks, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, argued otherwise, writing on X the “dovish” PCE reading takes an October interest rate hike by the Fed “off the table.”Annual inflation as measured by the consumer price index was also 3.4 percent in August.In response to persistent inflation, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised interest rates by a quarter point earlier this month — to a range of 3.75 percent to 4 percent.“The plain fact is that inflation is too high and has been for too long,” Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said after the unanimous vote to raise rates. “This summer’s inflation readings do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved.”Since that decision, multiple FOMC officials have forecast future rate hikes, with the panel set to meet again Oct. 27-28.Anna Paulson, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, said last Thursday economic conditions warrant “modest further tightening” if they continue.Fed board member Michael Barr also said last week that “further policy adjustments” are likely needed to bring inflation down, remarks he reiterated on Tuesday.“Risks to achieving our inflation target have increased, while risks to the labor market have receded, so we need to recalibrate policy to get us in a better position that more evenly balances risks to both components of our dual mandate,” Barr said at the Detroit Economic Club.Traders are pricing in a 47.1 percent chance of the FOMC hiking rates by a quarter point in late October, according to the CME FedWatch tool.John Williams, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said Tuesday the central bank should continue to evaluate economic data before deciding whether to hike rates again.“With the policy action we took at our September meeting, there is no need for urgency, and we have time to gather more information,” Williams remarked at the University of Buffalo.The New York Fed president noted that “one further upward adjustment” of the federal funds range may be needed this year if the economy “evolves in a manner broadly consistent” with his expectations.

Core PCE Prints Cooler Than Expected Due To Change In Methodology, As Savings Rate Plunges To 3 Year Low – (13 graphs) Ahead of today's closely watched core PCE report - the Fed's (reportedly) favorite inflation indicator (although that will probably shift to Truflation after Kevin Warsh's task force is done with analyzing the data), which was seen by many as deciding whether the Fed will hike in October and December, or just December as NY Fed president John Williams strongly hinted yesterday, we warned readers that PCE may surprise to the downside: "the Bureau of Economic Analysis updated methodology for calculating inflation in three components is expected to trim August year-on-year change by a few tenths of a percentage point." And surprise it did, because despite rampant energy inflation and record diesel prices, headline PCE came in line sequentially, printing up 0.3%, in line with expectations but coming in far cooler than expected on an annual basis, rising just 3.4%, vs expectations of a 3.7% print. The MoM jump in headline PCE was driven by services, a reversal from last month's drop, largely due to the spike in communication and education services. But it was the far more important core PCE, which strips out volatile energy and food prices, that rose 0.2% MoM (technically 0.247%, below the +0.3% MoM expected) with a notable miss in the YoY print, which dropped to +3.0% from the unrevised 3.3% (now revised to 3.0%), missing estimates of a 3.3% print. Within core, the biggest jump was again communications and education services. Ominously, the much-watched SuperCore PCE (Services ex-shelter) saw price inflation reversed the recent drop on a YoY basis, while surging 0.4% on a MoM basis... ... driven by a record surge in "Other Services" (+0.9%)... .. which in turn was the result of a surge in cell phone plans costs, and a record jump in education costs! Commenting on the data, David Russell, Global Head of Market Strategy at TradeStation said that "this is good news for investors worried about the recent surge in bond yields, and it bolsters the case for not hiking in October. We might have seen peak hawkishness from the Fed given the recent jump in rates. However, it’s also relatively old data at this point that doesn’t reflect this month’s surge in diesel prices. Investors will remain wary of energy prices as we enter a key period of fuel consumption." The inflation-boosted prices were met with much higher spending (+0.9% MoM notional, in line with estimates and up from 0.1% in July) while income growth was dangerously lower, failing to keep up with spending, and rising just +0.2% MoM, which was down from 0.3% in the previous month and missed estimates of 0.5%. The surprising spike in spending not supported by income, meant that the freshly revised savings rate tumbled again, dropping from 4.6% in July to just 4.1% in August, the lowest since Nov 2022.

Not Even the Massive Changes of Methodology Can Get PCE Inflation Back into the Bottle - by Wolf Richter - Today was the day for the annual revisions of the PCE price index by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). This is the inflation index that the Fed favors for its 2% inflation target. The revisions are undertaken every year, and the data is revised each year for the past five years. What’s different today is that the BEA also included changes of its methodology for three subcategories of the PCE price index:

1. Portfolio management and investment advice services
2. Legal services
3. Computer software and accessories.

The year-over-year “core services” PCE price index was slashed by 34 basis points for July as a result of these methodological changes and other revisions, from an old increase for July of +3.69% year-over-year, to a new-and-improved increase for July of +3.35% year-over-year. And in August, based on this new methodology, the core services PCE price index also increased by +3.35%. Blue = old year-over-year inflation rates; red = new-and-improved year-over-year inflation rates: Core services account for over 60% of consumer spending. They include housing, healthcare, travel, lodging, transportation services (airline fares, etc.), insurance of all kinds, auto repair and maintenance, communication (cellphone services, broadband, etc.), subscriptions, financial services, recreational activities, memberships, etc. The “core goods” PCE price index rose by 1.97% year-over-year in August. But July’s year-over-year inflation rate was slashed by 43 basis points to +1.85%, from the originally reported +2.28%, due to the changes of the methodology for the subindex, “Computer software and accessories.” Under the old method, the subindex for “computer software and accessories” had spiked by 21.2% year over year in July, driven by the side-effects of the AI investment boom. Today, the new-and-improved July inflation rate for “computer software and accessories” was +12.3%. Blue = old year-over-year inflation rates; red = new-and-improved year-over-year inflation rates. Despite those changes in methodology, inflation remained hot. These reductions of the “core services” PCE price index and the “core goods” PCE price index due to the changes in methodology then pulled down the “core” PCE price index, and the all-items PCE price index, which are the inflation measures that the Fed uses as yardstick for its 2% inflation target. Despite those changes in methodology, inflation remained substantially above the Fed’s 2% target, with the revised core PCE price index at 3.01% and the all-items PCE price index at 3.4%. The PCE price index is an alternative to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, whose August data was already released on September 11. The core PCE price index – which excludes energy and food – rose by 0.25% in August from July. But July’s previously reported 0.25% month-to-month increase was cut in half today by the new methodology to +0.12%. Year-over-year, the core PCE price index rose by 3.01% in August. And July’s year-over-year increase was cut by 37 basis points, to +2.98% from the originally reported +3.35% (in the chart below, blue = old year-over-year inflation rates; red = new revised year-over-year inflation rates). The Fed uses the core PCE price index as one of the yardsticks for its 2% inflation target (dotted purple line) because it provides a view of inflation beyond the spike and subsequent plunge of energy prices. The core PCE price index has been above target since March 2021. The closest it got to target was the new-and-improved +2.6% in April 2025. The all-items PCE price index rose by 0.31% in August from July, and July’s original month-to-month increase of +0.16% was cut to +0.05%. Year-over-year, the new-and-improved PCE price index accelerated to 3.42% in August, from the revised 3.36% in July. But the revisions slashed July’s increase by 34 basis points from the originally reported +3.70%. It is almost funny how inflation, by even this new-and-improved measure, has moved away from the Fed’s 2% inflation target (dotted purple line) since April 2025 while the Fed ignored it and cut its policy rates three times later that year (blue = old year-over-year inflation rates; red = new revised year-over-year inflation rates). The food & beverage PCE price index was not revised. In August, it rose by 1.9% year-over-year. This chart shows the price level, not the year-over-year percentage change. The energy PCE price index was not revised. It spiked by 16.8% year-over-year in August. These are energy goods and services that consumers pay for directly, such as gasoline, utility natural gas, electricity, heating oil, etc. The subindex for gasoline spiked by 27.8% year-over-year in August. This chart shows the price level, not the year-over-year percentage change.

The bond rout is deepening even as oil tankers return to the Strait of Hormuz - The return of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz was supposed to bring down the price of crude, gasoline and diesel, taming inflation and lowering the world’s borrowing costs. It isn’t happening. Even as U.S. forces have worn down Iran’s grip on the waterway, helping oil shipments rebound toward prewar levels, the global crude-futures benchmark jumped 4.4% Thursday to $102.31 a barrel. Average U.S. gas prices tracked by AAA were hanging above $4.41 a gallon. And the 10-year Treasury yield, a rough proxy for interest rates on many types of loans, this week notched its highest level in 24 years. The factors helping keep bond yields sticky stem from interlocking threats that are still squeezing the oil market like a vise: Estimates for Hormuz traffic vary, and traders fear re-escalation could throttle back supplies at any moment. Houthi rebels are threatening shipping lanes that also carry oil across the Arabian Peninsula. Thousands of miles away, a Ukrainian air campaign is targeting Russian refineries, which have historically been diesel factories feeding many industrial economies. Those colliding factors have pushed up the cost of moving crude and making fuel across the supply chain, raising the price to operate everything from cars and trucks to commercial jets and farming equipment. The bottleneck is sending inflationary aftershocks across America that could extend beyond November’s midterm elections, pressuring the Federal Reserve to consider additional interest-rate hikes in the months ahead. L Already, the bond market is struggling to absorb a flood of artificial-intelligence-linked debt, huge fiscal deficits and an economy hot enough to keep inflation above the central bank’s target. While the 10-year Treasury yield Thursday ticked lower to 5.233%, it is fresh off its steepest one-quarter run-up since 1994, helping propel U.S. mortgage rates past 7%. “There is still a high degree of sensitivity in the markets now to whether there’s progress to some kind of formal agreement between the U.S. and Iran, to the potential for further disruption,” said Arend Kapteyn, global head of economics and strategy at UBS Investment Bank. “From a central bank perspective,” he added, “you don’t just care about crude, but you care about the (refined) products, and the products are super tight.” As the U.S. Navy has degraded Iran’s ability to attack tankers or nearby energy facilities, Gulf oil producers and shipping firms have grown more adept at fending off or evading strikes. Morgan Stanley analysts estimate Middle East crude exports have recently been just 7% below prewar levels. But with many tankers turning off tracking systems or transferring cargoes between ships to minimize threats, other analysts are circumspect about just how much shipping has recovered. The flow data “could be a little optimistic, but it’s also not necessarily going to be consistent,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth. “It’s really opaque.” Renewed strikes on regional shipping lanes by Iran or its Houthi proxies in Yemen are also pushing traders to bake in more risk to their positions—buoying prices. On Wednesday, the U.K. Maritime Trade Operations Centre reported three vessels in the Strait of Hormuz were hit with projectiles. Drawdowns in inventories from China to Europe to the U.S., which buffered the market in the conflict’s first seven months, have left little room for error. Those stockpiles will also need to be refilled. The uncertainty has left traders like Babin glued to headlines about possible fuel-export restrictions by the U.S. and China. Even though crude futures have retreated somewhat from recent highs, the cost of physical oil cargoes remains more elevated, signaling refiners are racing to lock in short-term supplies. North Sea dated crude—a benchmark reported by Argus Media to track on-the-spot deliveries—fetched $127.42 a barrel Thursday. “There’s clearly still this demand for these barrels regardless of what the numbers say is coming through [Hormuz],” Babin said. While tanker traffic has rebounded, J.P. Morgan recently told clients, “The recovery, however, is uneven.” The bank estimates that exports of refined products such as gasoline, diesel and jet fuel from the region still remain around 40% below prewar levels. The cost of bringing crude to market has also skyrocketed. Tankers heading west from the Gulf have at times taken a long trip past the southern tip of Africa to avoid the threat of Houthi attacks. At the same time, many shipping firms are carrying oil out of the Gulf by shuttling supplies just outside Hormuz, where it can be transferred to vessels headed elsewhere. Those factors have tied up much of the global fleet of supertankers and sent freight rates surging. The roughly 21-day trip by skyscraper-size vessels ferrying crude from the Middle East to China recently cost the equivalent of $35 a barrel, according to Argus, up from less than $7 the day before the war began. Once that crude reaches refiners, costs are snowballing further. Thanks to reduced capacity in the Middle East, as well as Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries that pushed Moscow to curb diesel exports, traders are paying a premium to companies elsewhere that can pump out fuel.

Trump Says He's Rejecting Iran's Seven-Day Proposal To Open the Strait of Hormuz and End War - President Trump said on Sunday that he was “rejecting” a proposal from Iran to end the war and fully open the Strait of Hormuz within seven days, comments that came after The Wall Street Journal reported that he’s expecting to resume bombing Iran after the midterm elections. “I’m rejecting their deal,” Trump told reporters, according to The Hill. “They want to make a deal where they open the strait immediately because they’re losing so badly.” He went on to claim that the US has “total control of the Hormuz Strait” and that “massive amounts of oil are coming out of the Hormuz Strait,” though ships continue to come under attack in the waterway.Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responded to Trump’s comments on Sunday, saying that while Trump has publicly rejected the proposal, Iran has yet to receive an official answer from the US through mediators. He also said that Iran was “fully prepared” to face renewed US strikes but that it wouldn’t give up on diplomacy.Iran’s proposal would involve the US ending its blockade of Iranian ports, lifting some sanctions, and releasing frozen Iranian funds, all commitments the US agreed to under the short-lived Memorandum of Understanding that was signed in June. If implemented, Iran would fully open the Strait of Hormuz on the sixth day, and the two sides would enter talks on a final agreement on the seventh day.But at this point, there’s no sign that Trump is willing to agree to those conditions, and a renewed US bombing campaign appears likely. Sources speaking to The Wall Street Journal said it was unclear what level of strikes Trump would order after the midterms, as the president is reluctant to resume “major combat operations,” partly because of concerns over dwindling US military stockpiles.

Iran demands billions in five days. The law demands 30. Trump can’t dodge both - Iran has a deal for President Donald Trump, and a deadline to go with it. Tehran's latest proposal, pressed through mediators this week, asks Washington to release frozen Iranian funds, lift sanctions on Iranian oil, and end the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports, all within four to five days. Nuclear talks would begin within a week. Iranian officials have even pitched the deal as a boost for Trump in the midterm elections. Trump called the offer unacceptable, and he's right to drive a harder bargain. But talks resumed Monday, and after seven months of war and painful gas prices, a deal may come soon. When it does, one question matters as much as its terms. Will Congress see it before Iran gets paid? The law says it must. The Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act requires the president to send Congress any agreement related to Iran's nuclear program within five days, and it bars statutory sanctions relief for 30 days while lawmakers review it. The Senate passed that law, 98-1, in 2015 to make sure former President Barack Obama couldn't hand Tehran a windfall without Congress weighing in. That law has already been tested once, and it failed. The Trump administration signed its memorandum of understanding with Iran on June 17. The next day, Vice President JD Vance said the administration was "quite confident" it could temporarily lift sanctions without going to Congress, citing a Justice Department opinion that has never been made public. On June 22, Treasury authorized the sale of Iranian oil while the review period was still running. Harvard's Jack Goldsmith concluded the administration probably lacked the authority to do it. The deal collapsed anyway, and Treasury revoked the license on July 7. Now Congress is about to make the same mistake easier to repeat. The House left Washington on Sept. 16 and won't return until Nov. 9. The Senate leaves this week. If a deal lands in October, the review clock will run while no one is even in the building. The Framers saw this coming. Alexander Hamilton, no enemy of executive power, warned in Federalist No. 75 that dealings with foreign nations were too consequential to leave to the sole discretion of a president. That is why the Constitution gives Congress power over foreign commerce and the Senate a role in treaties. The sanctions at issue are statutes Congress wrote. A president can negotiate alone, but can't repeal laws alone. Some argue the review law should be scrapped because it slows down peace. Perhaps Congress should amend it. But that is Congress's call, made by changing the law, not by letting the executive branch ignore it. Before senators leave town, three things should happen. First, Senate leaders of both parties should secure a public commitment from the administration. No statutory sanctions relief for Iran until any agreement is sent to Congress and the review period runs its course. Second, if a deal is reached during the recess, both chambers should come back. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has already said he can recall the House on 48 hours' notice. Third, Republicans should remember where they stood in 2015. Conservatives argued then that Obama's Iran deal deserved real congressional scrutiny. That principle shouldn’t expire when the president changes parties. Ending the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz would be good for America. A deal that can outlast the next election would be even better, and deals that skip Congress rarely do. Obama's didn't. Tehran wants its money in five days. Congress should take the 30 days that the law gives it.

IRGC threatens US warships in Indian Ocean - Iran will attack US warships in the Indian Ocean if Washington resumes attacks against the country, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has warned. The threat came after Donald Trump, the US president, said he had rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end fighting in the Middle East and warned of a renewed bombing campaign after the US midterm elections in November. “If another war breaks out, we will undoubtedly attack and hit their ships and destroyers even in the Indian Ocean,” Ali Mohammadi, the deputy political commander of the IRGC navy, said in comments published by the semi-official Fars News Agency.The Indian Ocean is far beyond the southern entrance to the Strait of Hormuz, which has been subject to Iranian and US blockades during the conflict, largely halting shipping through the key waterway. Such threats, if they came to fruition, would significantly widen the geographic scope of the Iran war, which has already engulfed much of the Middle East. An Iranian army spokesman also said Iran believed the US could launch a renewed attack because of a poor regional situation, and that it was prepared for any future threat, even as other Iranian officials urged that diplomacy was the only channel for resolution. “Our conditions are clear, and any move toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz is contingent on these conditions being met,” Abbas Araghchi, the Iranian foreign minister, posted on social media on Sunday. “Only a negotiated solution can get them out of this deadlock.” On Saturday, the US president rejected Iran’s latest proposal for a seven-day truce, after which the latter would reopen the strait if certain conditions were met. For the Iranian side, those conditions have largely remained consistent throughout the war, and include an end to all hostilities, the release of about $12bn (£9bn) in frozen assets, to waive sanctions on Iranian oil and to lift the naval blockade on Iran. Mr Trump, however, has argued that the Iranians are so weakened that they’re desperate for an agreement to conclude the conflict. “They want to make a deal to open the Hormuz Strait immediately, because they’re losing so badly,” the US president told reporters at the White House. He also posted an image of Hormuz labelled as “Trump Strait” on social media. Media reports have presented conflicting accounts on whether Iran would be willing to make any concessions on its nuclear programme as part of negotiations, which have largely been conducted via mediators. A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Friday that Iran would show no flexibility over its nuclear programme, even if the US agreed to its seven-day truce proposal – the same one that Mr Trump rejected a day later.

Eight US marines injured in Strait of Hormuz  - An Iranian cruise missile struck a ship carrying US forces in the Strait of Hormuz, American officials have admitted. Eight marines suffered concussion and smoke inhalation in the incident earlier this month. They belonged to a battalion landing team, but the purpose of their mission in the strait was not clear. At the time of the attack on Sep 14, the marines were not on a US navy ship. Sources speaking to US media referred only to a “maritime vessel”. All eight of them – seven enlisted troops and one officer – returned to duty shortly after the attack, NBC News reported. It came during a period of relative calm in the war. Fighting has become limited to attacks on ships attempting to break the Iranian and US blockades, which have remained in place after Donald Trump rejected a fresh deal with Tehran. Since the Iran war began in late February, the Pentagon has faced controversy over how it labels soldiers killed and wounded. Following the start of a ceasefire in July, which later collapsed, it reclassified four troops as having been killed in “overseas operations”, rather than in the war codenamed Operation Epic Fury. The change lowered the operation’s official death toll to 14. A total of 19 soldiers have died, with five labelled under “overseas operations”. Iran doesn't need to sink the US Navy to close Hormuz - it only needs to make commercial shipping too dangerous ballistic anti-ship missiles. C A total of 861 have been wounded, with more than half not listed under Operation Epic Fury. Critics have pointed to confusion and delays in the release of casualty figures, in contrast to other overseas conflicts where such data have been reported routinely. Data in the Pentagon’s defence casualty analysis system (DCAS), which tracks deaths and injuries of US soldiers, showed that nine US Marines had been injured in September 2026 in “overseas operations”. The eight injuries reported by NBC were added to the list last Wednesday – 10 days after the attack. One official told NBC that the lag occurred because symptoms were not always immediately reported and because the system did not update in real time. Donald Trump and US officials have repeatedly claimed that the conflict with Tehran was not a war. On Sept 3, JD Vance, the US vice-president, said: “Right now, there is no active shooting.” The data in DCAS do not provide identities of wounded soldiers or information about the circumstances of their injuries. Spokesmen for US Central Command and the US department of defence declined to comment when approached by NBC.

Report: US Marines Injured by Iranian Attack on Ship in the Strait of Hormuz -    NBC News reported on Sunday night that eight US Marines were injured two weeks ago when an Iranian missile hit a ship they were operating on in the Strait of Hormuz. The report, which cited unnamed US officials, said the Marines sustained smoke inhalation and potentially traumatic brain injuries, as they had symptoms of concussions, and that they were back on duty soon after the September 14 attack. The officials speaking to NBC said the Marines were not on a US Navy ship when they were hit, and they wouldn’t specify what kind of ship it was, describing it only as a maritime vessel. There’s been speculation that US military personnel may be traveling aboard commercial vessels that the US is helping guide out of the strait. But there are signs that a US Navy ship may also have been hit this month, as the Pentagon quietly acknowledged that 29 US Navy sailors were injured this month by adding them to its casualty database, known as the Defense Casualty Analysis System. Throughout the Iran war, the Pentagon has consistently downplayed casualties, and according to a recent report from The Washington Post, it has not reported all of the US military deaths in the region since the conflict began. According to the official Pentagon numbers, at least 19 US troops have been killed by Iranian attacks or died of other causes during the war, and 861 have been wounded. The Post report put the number of deaths of US service members at up to 23, though it said not all undisclosed deaths were directly tied to the conflict, and it also said that three civilian contractors have also died.

Ron Paul asks Why Is the Pentagon Hiding US Iran War Casualties? -  -On today’s Ron Paul Liberty Report: (video) Here’s a shocker: There have been more American service member casualties in the Iran war AFTER President Trump announced the conclusion of Operation Epic Fury. And just over the past few days we are learning about two major recent incidents that have left an additional 37 service members injured, many with “traumatic brain injuries.” How long will the lies go on?

Iran just handed the world a big clue that the war is nowhere close to ending anytime soon - The U.S. and Iran continue to negotiate over the status of the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, reports describe an incident in the Strait this week. According to Reuters, citing the shipping intelligence service Marisks, three Liberian-flagged oil tankers were “struck by unknown projectiles” while transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday.The report says the ships were moving with their Automatic Identification System transponders turned off, a common practice in recent months as ships avoid detection while transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The ships were named as the oil products tanker Al Ruwais, the “Very large crude carrier” Mersin Prosperity, and the Aframax-sized tanker Sinbad. ADNOC Logistics & Services manages the first two, while Anglo-Eastern Tanker Management manages Sinbad. Seatrade Maritime News, meanwhile, reported that a fourth vessel, the VLCC Al Funtas, was also struck in recent days. The report added that, of those ships, only Sinbad is on Iran's list of “non-compliant vessels” subject to “fines, detention, or confiscation” for transiting the Strait.The latter report cited Vanguard Tech, which said: “the extent of damage to the three vessels remains unclear at current.”According to a report by Maritime Executive about the recent wave of strikes, they show that Iran is “lashing out to demonstrate that it is still threatening vessels,” amid reports that Iran’s grip on the Strait of Hormuz has been loosening.That report also cited Iran’s Fars News Agency, which claimed that warning shots had been fired at vessels trying to get through the Strait on Tuesday.These reports follow last weekend’s reporting from NBC News, which stated Iranian forces on September 14 had struck a ship that U.S. forces were on in the Strait of Hormuz, which led to injuries – including smoke inhalation and possibly traumatic brain injuries — for those service members, who were not on a Navy ship at the time. Seven of the injured were enlisted, while one was an officer, and all have since returned to duty, NBC said.  It took two weeks for the first news reports to break. The War Zone reported that while it’s unclear which ship the service members were on, there’s a “strong possibility” it was the former British Royal Mail vessel RMS St Helena, converted into a “floating armory.”TWZ had not confirmed that this was the ship, and CENTCOM did not comment.However, Trade Winds News reported more definitively, shortly after the attack, that Iran had “attacked a historic former British Royal Mail passenger ship in the Strait of Hormuz,” although that report did not state that U.S. service members were on board.How, exactly, did Iran’s grip on the Strait loosen? A series of media reports in recent days has examined how that happened. According to the Wall Street Journal, Iran’s ability to “choke off oil” flowing through the crucial waterway has weakened, along with its leverage in talks with the U.S. That’s because both the U.S. Navy and Gulf oil producers have improved their ability when it comes to “fending off or evading Iranian attacks, allowing more tankers to cross the strait.”As a result, Middle Eastern crude oil exports have rebounded to nearly 80 percent of their prewar levels, the Journal said, citing Kpler data.Factors include Saudi Arabia getting its East-West Pipeline back online and other workarounds.Separately, Bloomberg News reported this week that Sheik Khaled bin Mohamed Al Nahyan, Abu Dhabi’s crown prince, is spending billions of dollars on a project called “Zero Hormuz.”  The Sheik, who earlier this year took control of L’imad Holding, a $300 billion sovereign wealth fund, is working to build new port infrastructure needed to achieve the goal of “overriding Iran’s stranglehold over the Strait of Hormuz.” The fund announced it is taking Abu Dhabi Ports Co. private at a valuation of over $9 billion, aiming to reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz.Meanwhile, The Economist reported that President Donald Trump’s public rejection, earlier this week, of Iran’s latest ceasefire proposal came because Trump feels it’s a better idea to wait.

Trump willing to ease sanctions and unfreeze assets in exchange for Iran nuclear concessions --President Trump is willing to give Iran sanctions relief and release Iranian frozen funds in return for concrete Iranian steps regarding the nuclear program, U.S. officials say.But Trump took to Truth Social Monday evening to say such reports were "untrue." The apparent U.S. message to Iran comes as Qatari and Pakistani mediators try again this week to strike a deal between the two warring countries.At the moment, the two sides are far apart on key issues. Iran wants talks to focus on the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. naval blockade, while the Trump administration is demanding that Iran agree to nuclear concessions. But the offer provides a glimmer of hope for a diplomatic breakthrough after Trump rejected Iran's most recent offer.  The mediators are meeting with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in New York today to discuss a Qatari proposal that the parties have been negotiating the last few days. Qatari mediators are expected to meet with Trump administration officials later Monday or Tuesday to try to reach a breakthrough. A U.S. official with knowledge of the indirect talks called them "positive and constructive" and said Iran "has indicated they are flexible on the nuclear issues." But the official also noted there are still gaps and stressed there won't be a deal "unless the nuclear issues are addressed." "The sides still remain apart on the timing of the commitments and who takes which steps first," the official said."The Strait of Hormuz traffic continues to rise and the blockade and sanctions continue to degrade Iran's position. The U.S. position gets stronger every day and President Trump remains patient and fully committed to his goal that Iran never have a nuclear weapon," the official said.The person added that the White House is skeptical about Iran's promises and accused the Iranians of breaking the last memorandum of understanding by firing at commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz in July. "The U.S. needs assurances this time that Iran is serious and it's not just them trying to get out of the tough situation they are in," the official said. Editor's note: This story has been updated with a statement from President Trump.

Trump Denies That He Has Offered Iran Sanctions Relief for Nuclear Concessions -  President Trump on Monday denied a report from Axios that said he had offered Iran sanctions relief in exchange for nuclear concessions, calling it a “hoax.”“Axios just released a story that ‘Trump’ offered Sanctions Relief and Frozen Funds to Iran. This is untrue. I offered them NOTHING!” he wrote on Truth Social. “Axios’ story, like most others, is a HOAX, used only for purposes of satisfying their Trump Derangement Syndrome. They should withdraw this fake story, IMMEDIATELY!” the president added  The report, which cited unnamed US officials, came after Trump said that he was “rejecting” an Iranian proposal that would involve the US ending its blockade of Iranian ports, lifting sanctions, and releasing frozen funds, in exchange for Iran opening the Strait of Hormuz within seven days.Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responded to Trump’s comments on Sunday, saying Iran still had not received an official US response through mediators. Araghchi remains in New York City, where he traveled to attend the UN General Assembly, and according to the Axios report, he met with Qatari and Pakistani mediators on Monday.A diplomatic breakthrough is unlikely, as the two sides remain far apart and Trump doesn’t appear willing to fulfill the commitments the US made in June when it signed the short-lived Memorandum of Understanding. The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump expects to resume strikes on Iran after the midterm elections, and Araghchi has said Iran is ready to face another round of attacks, even if they are “apocalyptic,” though he continues to stress that Tehran prefers diplomacy.

Rubio ordered Iranians out of US as negotiations stalled - Secretary of State Marco Rubio ordered the Iranian delegation to leave the U.S. immediately Monday after the United Nations General Assembly as negotiations between both countries have stalled.The Hill’s broadcast partner NewsNation on Thursday confirmed this with the State Department, which previously approved visas for the “core” Iranian delegation to the U.N. last month. Rubio lost patience with the Iranian officials Monday and said Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and his delegation should immediately leave, The Associated Press reported, citing two officials familiar with the order.  One official told the outlet that Rubio determined that the delegates “overstayed their welcome” and should depart given high-level meetings have concluded.Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian left New York City the day after he spoke before the U.N. General Assembly last week, but Araghchi stayed behind for indirect talks with the U.S., the AP reported. He planned to stay in the Big Apple until Wednesday. Araghchi and his team left very early Tuesday, but the delegation denied being ordered to leave.“The Iranian delegation left New York on Monday evening, in accordance with the schedule that had also been communicated to the U.S. Department of State in advance on September 17,” the delegation stated on the social platform X. “Having achieved nothing, the State Department has resorted to propagating baseless and worthless news.”The U.S.-Israeli conflict in Iran stretched to its seven-month mark Monday, with both countries negotiating through intermediaries. Pezeshkian and President Trump have said they are looking for a deal, although the U.S. president rejected a peace proposal from Iran that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and enact a ceasefire.Iranian government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani said Wednesday that negotiators received an official U.S. response to the proposal, though no other details were offered.  Critics in the U.S. against the regime have accused it of dragging out the conflict and talks with the U.S. to have it hamper Trump’s policies toward Iran after the midterms. An Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps spokesperson, Gen. Hossein Mohebbi, earlier this week urged American voters to rally against Trump so as to change U.S. policy toward Tehran.“Although American politicians often win your votes through deception and false promises, as Trump did, you can change the makeup of the government if you apply the criteria for good leadership in choosing the people you vote into office,” Mohebbi said in a letter to voters obtained by The Times of Israel.

Supercut shows Trump making 1 undelivered promise over and over again - Donald Trump’s ever-shifting timeline for ending the war in Iran is placed firmly under the microscope in a new montage released Tuesday. The supercut, produced by the conservative-led nonprofit Home of the Brave in partnership with progressive veterans group VoteVets, highlights just some of the many times Trump has suggested the conflict he controversially launched in February will soon be over. See the video on YouTube. The groups also launched an online calendar tracker, AboutTwoWeeks.com, which documents the dozens of times Trump has promised an imminent end to the conflict. “The president’s repeated promises to end the war in ‘about two weeks’ are falsehoods intended to hide the fact that he has no plan and no cards left to play,” said Sarah Matthews, spokesperson for Home of the Brave and White House deputy press secretary during Trump’s first term who has now become a vocal critic of her onetime boss. “We won’t stop calling out this insult to America’s heroes, because they signed up to give their best to this country, and Trump is giving them his worst in return,” Matthews added in a statement to HuffPost. On the Home of the Brave’s Substack, the group noted how “Trump promised to be the president of ‘no more wars,’ and vowed repeatedly to keep America out of military quagmires on foreign shores.” “Once in office, he started his illegal war with Iran without seeking Congressional approval, and without even attempting to make a cogent case for military action to the American public,” it added. The campaign seeks to “mobilize veterans and pro-democracy Americans in opposition to this administration’s disastrous foreign and military policies” ahead of the 2026 midterm elections in November, the groups said. Trump has frequently claimed the war is effectively over, but on Monday admitted it’s still ongoing, saying: “We’re going to win that war very soon.”

US Completing Its Withdrawal From Remaining Military Bases in Iraq - -The US military is set to complete its withdrawal from its remaining bases in Iraq on Wednesday under a deal signed between the US and the Iraqi government in 2024.The US is officially ending the mission of the anti-ISIS coalition that began in 2014 after the US redeployed troops to Iraq following a 2011 withdrawal.Over the past few months, the US has had only a few hundred troops in Iraq’s northern Kurdistan region, which has come under significant attacks launched by Iran and its allies since the US launched the war against Iran on February 28. The US also maintained a small presence at its Camp Victory base in Baghdad, and Al Jazeera reported from the base on Tuesday that the last US military personnel have left.The US will likely keep Marines or other military personnel at its embassy in Baghdad, the largest US diplomatic facility in the world, but it’s unclear whether that presence will be beyond the typical security contingent for a US embassy in a foreign country.When the Biden administration signed the withdrawal deal, it insisted that it wouldn’t pull all of its forces out of Iraq and was only changing the mission from the anti-ISIS coalition to a “bilateral security partnership.” But the Trump administration decided to go ahead with a full withdrawal from the US’s military bases in Iraq.The Trump administration has also demanded that its withdrawal should come with the disarmament of Iraq’s Iran-aligned Shia militias, though Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi said last week that the new deadline was June 30, 2027. The militias are part of what is known as the Popular Mobilization Forces, a coalition formed in 2014 to fight ISIS that is part of Iraq’s security forces.Another coalition group of Iraqi Shia militias, known as the Islamic Resistance of Iraq (IRI), which includes some of the PMF groups but not all, and has launched many attacks on US bases in recent years, is celebrating the US withdrawal. Abu Mojtaba al-Yasiri, an IRI commander, told Reuters that it was “a ​historic victory for the Iraqi Islamic resistance groups and honorable Iraqis, and a crushing defeat for the American project.”While the US is withdrawing its remaining troops from military bases in Iraq, Washington will continue to wield significant power over the country. Iraq’s oil revenues, which account for about 90% of the government’s budget, are deposited into an account belonging to Iraq’s central bank at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, giving the US significant leverage over Baghdad’s access to dollars.

The US military exits Iraq, leaving behind a nation in peril —After spending more than 23 years and $1.7 trillion, America is winding down what critics have called its forever war in Iraq, closing the last major U.S. military base on Wednesday. “We don’t think we need the military there anymore,” President Trump said during a White House visit by Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi in July. “We have a fantastic champion, a new champion,” the president said. “He’s young, and he’s handsome.” Zaidi, a 41-year-old businessman, sat beside Trump during the visit and announced a deadline, also set for Wednesday, for Iranian-backed militias to hand over their weapons. “There is no justification for their existence after the 30th of September,” he said. Instead, America’s open-ended war with Iran is pushing Iraq deeper into conflict, with the U.S. exit leaving behind a country where well-armed militias are only tightening their grip. Militants and Iranian forces launched more than 600 attacks on U.S. diplomatic and military facilities in Iraq in the first two months of the war, The Wall Street Journal reported. In a sign of Iraq’s instability, the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad now sends frequent security warnings to individual Americans and others. About two a week regard kidnapping by militants. A team from the Journal abruptly left Baghdad this month after Iraqi, U.S. and European officials warned of a security threat that American officials later said was a kidnapping risk by a Shiite militia. Iran-backed militias have long exercised influence in Iraq. But Tehran has renewed its support since the U.S. initiated its bombing campaign in Iran in February, according to current and former U.S. officials and defense experts. The flow of small arms, drones and small-diameter, short-range rockets from Iran initially slowed while Tehran focused on fighting the U.S., but ramped up this summer, a U.S. official said. Recent attacks involved longer-range missiles and drones, the official said, hinting at a menacing weapons upgrade. This month, a drone attack that Saudi Arabia said was launched from Iraq near the border with Iran temporarily closed its East-West oil pipeline—an increasingly vital artery in the months since Iran disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Other attacks damaged an U.S. diplomatic and logistics hub at the Baghdad airport. Zaidi, who never held public office before becoming prime minister in May, has been embraced by the Trump administration as someone they can do business with. He owns a bank, an insurance company and media and construction firms. His bank was banned by the Treasury Department from dollar transactions in 2024 over suspicions it helped finance Iran and its proxies. Zaidi denied knowing about such transactions. Former U.S. officials said they didn’t believe he had any personal involvement. The Trump administration is counting on Zaidi to disarm the militants, which number in the tens of thousands and include paramilitary groups that receive funding or weapons from Iran.

Trump Says Iran’s Latest Proposal Was ‘Not Good Enough’ -  President Donald Trump said an Iranian proposal that would have led to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz was “not good enough,” adding that renewed US bombing of Iran after the midterm elections was “possible.”In an interview with Time released on Thursday, Trump was asked why he rejected a proposal from Iran last week that would have reopened the Strait of Hormuz. “Because things that I wouldn’t have approved a year ago I wouldn’t have today,” he replied. “I mean, it was—they made an offer to open up the Strait. You know, you saw some aspects of it, not all. But it’s just, it’s just, it’s not good enough. Nearly.”  Following up, Time asked the President, “Are you going to ramp up bombing after the midterms?” with Trump giving a one-word reply, “possible.”Last week, Iran sent the US a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resume nuclear talks in exchange for Washington lifting its blockade, easing sanctions on Iranian oil sales, and restoring a regional ceasefire. On Sunday, Trump said he rejected the Iranian proposal.Qatari officials also mediated indirect negotiations between Trump’s envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly summit. Axios reported that Qatari mediators are continuing to engage separately with the US and Iran and are working on a compromise based on the Iranian proposal.On Sunday, Trump said he expected talks between the US and Iran this week, a claim denied in Iranian state media. “I expect more talks with Iran [this week]. They want to make a deal, but it is not the deal that I want to make. It is what we would have maybe agreed to a year ago. They overplayed their hand,” Trump said. On Monday, Iranian state media said no talks were planned. “Iran’s delegation in New York has no plans for negotiations with the United States,” state-run news agency IRNA said.On Monday, Trump lashed out at Axios on Truth Social after the outlet reported he had offered Iran sanctions relief in exchange for nuclear concessions. The outlet reported that US officials said the President was willing to lift sanctions and unfreeze Iranian assets in return for concrete steps on Iran’s nuclear program. Shortly after the report was published, Trump denied making the offer on Truth Social. “Axios just released a story that ‘Trump’ offered Sanctions Relief and Frozen Funds to Iran. This is untrue,” he wrote. “I offered them NOTHING! Axios’ story, like most others, is a HOAX, used only for purposes of satisfying their Trump Derangement Syndrome. They should withdraw this fake story, IMMEDIATELY!”

Axios: US Officials Think Trump Could Order Resumption of Full-Scale Bombing of Iran After Midterms - US officials believe President Trump could order a return to “major combat operations” against Iran after the midterm elections, as Qatar-mediated negotiations have made little progress, Axios reported on Tuesday. Iran has maintained that it’s ready to fully open the Strait of Hormuz and enter negotiations on a final deal if the US ends its blockade of Iranian ports, lifts sanctions on Iran, and releases some Iranian frozen funds, commitments that the US agreed to under the Memorandum of Understanding signed back in June. But the Trump administration is reportedly demanding nuclear concessions from Iran before any of that happens, and Iranian officials say they would only consider doing so once the terms of the MoU were fulfilled. Sources told Axios reporter Barak Ravid that Ali al-Thawadi, a Qatari diplomat mediating between the two sides, held talks in New York on Monday with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi and later with President Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner in Washington, a meeting that Vice President JD Vance also briefly attended. The officials discussed a Qatari proposal to bridge the gaps between the two sides, but there was no breakthrough.The report came a day after Trump denied the idea that he had offered sanctions relief to Iran in exchange for nuclear concessions, rejecting an earlier Axios report, also written by Ravid. “Axios just released a story that ‘Trump’ offered Sanctions Relief and Frozen Funds to Iran. This is untrue. I offered them NOTHING!” Trump said in a Truth Social post.For their part, Iranian officials have said they’re ready to face another round of US strikes, though they remain open to diplomacy. Mohsen Rezaei, head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said Tuesday that Trump was caught in a “quagmire” and unable to decide how to get out of it. Trump is caught in a quagmire where he can neither negotiate nor fight,” Rezaei said. “Iran’s conditions have been conveyed to the United States, but Trump is unable to make a decision, and the United States, out of desperation, has resorted to an air siege in the military war.”

Trump Sending Third Aircraft Carrier Strike Group to Middle East -  A US official said Washington plans to send a third aircraft carrier and an additional Marine division to the Middle East. Last month, The Atlantic reported the USS Theodore Roosevelt was preparing to deploy to the Middle East, with the Department of War preparing to maintain two aircraft carrier strike groups in the region before the end of the year, suggesting the Roosevelt would replace the USS George H.W. Bush, which had been in the region since April. However, Al Jazeera Arabic spoke with a US official on Thursday who said the Pentagon now plans to keep three aircraft carrier strike groups in the Middle East. The Bush will continue its deployment alongside the USS George Washington, with hopes the Roosevelt will arrive by late November.  In addition to the Roosevelt, the US official speaking with The Jerusalem Post said that President Donald Trump was also ordering an additional division of Marines to the Middle East. In an interview with Time magazine published on Thursday, Trump said it was possible he would order an attack on Iran after the midterm election. Reuters reported speaking with three senior Iranian officials who said Tehran was preparing to significantly escalate the conflict if the US resumes attacks on the Islamic Republic. The Roosevelt will be the fifth aircraft carrier used during the war against Iran that began in February. Trump deployed two other aircraft carrier strike groups to the region during the 12-day war last year. The war has strained the American Navy. The USS Abraham Lincoln left the Middle East in August after an extraordinarily long deployment to the region and is now returning to California.

Iran readies harder retaliation if attacked as diplomacy faces long odds (Reuters) - Iran is preparing a broader and more forceful response if the United States resumes large-scale military attacks, sources said, while continuing a diplomatic push that Iranian officials privately see as unlikely to succeed. The planning reflects a conviction within Iran's leadership that any renewed US campaign must be met with a stronger response than before, even as Tehran seeks to avert escalation through talks. Senior commanders are reviewing plans to expand potential targets beyond US-linked assets to countries that support US military operations and possibly to locations outside the Middle East, according to three senior Iranian officials and an insider familiar with the discussions. Since President Masoud Pezeshkian returned from New York last week, commanders and senior officials have focused on the scope and timing of any response if Washington strikes again. No final decision has been made, but planning has intensified as neither side shows signs of willingness to compromise. The deliberations follow seven months of conflict that began with US-Israeli attacks on February 28. Although an April 8 ceasefire ended the 40-day war, hostilities have continued sporadically since then. Hamidreza Azizi, a senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group, said Tehran remained uncertain whether President Donald Trump would launch another major campaign or opt for more limited attacks, such as strikes on nuclear facilities. "But they seem determined not to respond symbolically to a symbolic move and instead to escalate in the hope of reestablishing deterrence," Azizi said. Tehran is also weighing the political risks for Trump of a prolonged conflict. Polls show the war has been unpopular with Americans, while higher fuel prices remain a concern ahead of the midterm elections. Two of the officials said Tehran had instructed allied groups in Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq to be ready to support Iran in the event of a renewed large-scale US attack. The guidance, they said, was to prepare for a coordinated response stretching "from the Strait of Hormuz to US interests in the region and outside the Middle East." However, Tehran is still keeping open a channel for negotiations even as it readies for a wider war. Underlying Iran's calculations is a second concern: whether its economy can withstand a prolonged confrontation under a US blockade that has cut off oil exports, a critical source of revenue. Years of sanctions and mounting economic hardship have already placed growing pressure on ordinary Iranians. At last week's United Nations General Assembly in New York, Tehran submitted a proposal to Washington through Qatari mediators that, if accepted, could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and halt hostilities across the region within seven days. Iranian authorities say the proposal calls for an end to fighting, the lifting of the US blockade on Iranian ports, the release of at least $12 billion in frozen Iranian funds and a waiver of oil sanctions. Trump said on Saturday he had rejected the proposal. Iranian state media reported, however, that a US response was delivered to Tehran through Qatar on Tuesday and is now under review. Iranian sources said Washington wants Iran's disputed nuclear programme included in negotiations, but Tehran insists that the nuclear talks can only begin after its seven conditions are met, not before. "Even if Iran does not reject the US response outright and indirect talks continue, it is very unlikely that the two sides will reach an agreement," said one of the officials.

Marco Rubio says UK airbase plot 'clearly involves the hands of a foreign actor' --Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Monday the alleged thwarted attack on a U.S. air base in the United Kingdom “clearly” involved a foreign state.  Rubio, during an appearance on Fox News’s “Hannity,” said the Sunday arrests of five men suspected of planning an attack on Royal Air Force (RAF) Fairford in England were “very serious.”“It’s one that clearly involves the hands of a foreign actor,” he told host Sean Hannity. “I won’t get into great detail about that yet.”British authorities arrested five men on explosives and terror charges near the air base in Gloucestershire, England. All five men are British nationals in their 20s. Authorities detained the men after a local farmer called police over three suspicious vehicles near the base late Saturday night. A source familiar with the situation told Reuters the white vans did not contain viable explosives. President Trump has said the federal government worked with the U.K. in arresting the suspects, telling reporters Sunday the men were “under view for a long time.”Officials released the men on bail Monday, a move Trump took issue with. “I’m surprised that they released them. I wouldn’t have done that,” the president told reporters in the Oval Office. American B-52 and B-1 bombers have taken off from RAF Fairford as part of the U.S. military campaign against Iran. The air base in southern England is owned by the U.K. and operated by American forces. Iran’s embassy in the U.K. denied involvement in the incident, saying in a Monday statement it “categorically rejects and strongly condemns the recent unfounded and malicious speculations” regarding the Islamic Republic’s potential role. The Iranian regime has repeatedly threatened countries that aid the U.S. in the war and has attacked American bases throughout the Middle East during the seven-month conflict.Rubio added Monday that the incident near RAF Fairford “ties us to the reality” of threats against the U.S.“We are dealing with elements in the world, and in the case of Iran, for example, who have openly threatened to attack American interests globally,” he told Hannity.The secretary of State added, “We’re going to always take that very seriously, there will be repercussions for that if it ever were to happen or even attempted.”

Gulf Exports Roar Back To Pre-War Levels, Goldman Says; Blas Sees "Trump Has Advantage" On Hormuz -  The US conflict with Iran has been ongoing for seven months and will soon enter its eighth month. Diplomatic signals this week, along with another request for a US SPR dump and reports of Gulf oil export flows improving toward prewar levels, have sent Brent crude futures down to around $103 a barrel.Goldman analysts Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby, Alexandra Paulus and Daan Struyven have penned a new note explaining that estimated "dark exports" have helped boost Persian Gulf oil exports to 23.3 million barrels a day over the past week, back to prewar levels and an encouraging development ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter."We estimate that Persian Gulf oil exports, including estimated "dark exports", have recovered to 23.3mb/d over the last week, in line with their 2025 average, as exports doubled in September," the analysts wrote. They said, "The remarkable adaptation of both Middle East supply and China import demand supports our base case that Brent prices moderate to $85/bbl by year-end and to $80 in 2027." Grigsby attributed much of the export-bound surge to increased Hormuz shipments, including ship-to-ship transfers. Those flows have offset a drone attack that paralyzed Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, but the most recent reports say the pipeline has restarted.  Crude accounted for nearly 90% of September's export recovery in the Gulf area, reaching 19 million barrels a day over the past week, or 108% of its 2025 average. But the analysts warned that exports of diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel remained at just half their 2025 average. Bloomberg commodities expert Javier Blas wrote in an opinion piece that President Trump has gained the upper hand in the battle over the maritime chokepoint, with crude exports from US allies through Hormuz and bypass routes recovering toward prewar levels.  Blas wrote: I don't know who will win the US-Iran war. But if you ask me who's prevailing in the battle over the Strait of Hormuz, it's clear US President Donald Trump has the advantage. As much as Tehran says the opposite, the strait is effectively wide open. Crude oil exports from regional US allies via the waterway, plus bypass routes, have risen to about 80% of prewar levels. Iran, meanwhile, has seen its own oil exports plunge to zero.A couple of months ago, the surge in oil shipments would have been seen as a major American victory. Yet Brent crude, the oil price benchmark, remains above $100 a barrel. Inside the White House, some must be asking themselves: If this is winning, what would losing look like?

Trump says diesel export ban is still on the table -President Donald Trump said Wednesday he hasn’t yet made up his mind on whether to impose a ban on diesel fuel exports, despite fierce pushback on the idea in recent days from the oil and gas industry and some of his own advisers.The White House is facing growing pressure to take steps to bring down record high diesel prices ahead of the midterm elections, and Trump indicated last week he would be open to restricting exports. But members of his Cabinet and top industry officials argue that such a move would end up raising prices for all types of fuel, including gasoline, and they have scrambled to present alternative measures to the president.“I’m thinking about it,” Trump said of the export ban at an Oval Office event. “I speak to [Energy Secretary] Chris [Wright] and [Interior Secretary] Doug [Burgum] about it a lot — they sort of think it’ll help diesel, but it might raise the price of other things.”Trump said he was optimistic about prices coming down as petroleum flows through the Strait of Hormuz have increased in recent days, but he declined to rule out restricting diesel shipments.“It’s something that we think about and we talk about every day,” he said. “But it just seems that it would have a negative impact on gasoline, so that would go up a little bit, and diesel would come down a little bit.”Wright, who has staunchly opposed a ban and was with Trump in the Oval Office on Wednesday, said the administration would soon announce measures aimed at bringing down diesel prices. Europe would also be announcing moves to add supply to the market, he said.“You will hear announcements from our friends in Europe about new diesel supplies that’ll come to the market that’ll meaningfully push diesel prices down,” Wright said.POLITICO reported Tuesday that the White House was considering asking European governments to release diesel from their own strategic reserves.

White House looking to Europe to release diesel from strategic reserves - President Donald Trump appears set on banning diesel exports. His Cabinet, oil industry executives and some GOP lawmakers are hoping he doesn’t. Instead, they are pitching the administration on several other ideas that would be less disruptive to oil markets while still lowering the price of diesel — at least temporarily. Among the ideas being floated is to ask European governments to release diesel from their own strategic reserves, said two people familiar with the discussions who were granted anonymity to discuss conversations with the White House. “The motivation is to stop a ban,” said one oil industry executive familiar with the conversations. The average price of diesel was $6.44 on Tuesday, according to AAA, $2.75 higher than it was a year ago. The high price is hurting farmers during harvest season, angering a key GOP constituency with the midterm elections just over a month away. The White House referred questions to the Energy Department, which announced Tuesday afternoon it was soliciting proposals for the remainder of its planned 172-million-barrel release from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said in a statement that the SPR move shows the U.S. “continues to lead the coordinated efforts to stabilize oil markets for the benefit of Americans and people around the world.” “While the United States and Japan are delivering on their commitments, several European member countries have released only a fraction of the crude oil and petroleum products they pledged,” Wright said. “We urge every member country to fulfill its commitments.” Interior Secretary Doug Burgum also separately suggested Tuesday morning that the administration is eyeing Europe’s stockpiles. “The administration is discussing a lot of options and I don’t want to get ahead of anybody, but it is a fact that the Europeans have a lot of diesel reserves,” Burgum said in a brief interview with POLITICO.Europe reportedly holds the world’s largest combined commercial and government diesel reserves, with more than 350 million barrels of the fuel held in various countries, said Paul Hickin, chief economist and editor-in-chief at Petroleum Economist, a London-based journal.A diesel release from reserves “could shave the winter risk premium and ease the pull on U.S. barrels, so it may well help Washington avoid a ban,” Hickin said. “But it would buy a few months, not solve anything. It also asks Europe to spend its insurance to fix a U.S. political problem, at a moment when its own commercial stocks are near multiyear lows.“

Exclusive-US tells France and Germany to release diesel stocks or face US export ban, sources say (Reuters) - The Trump administration has told Germany and France to draw down emergency diesel inventories to help ease soaring global fuel prices or face a potential US diesel export ban, according to three people close to the discussions. The warning marks an escalation in pressure on Europe as US President Donald Trump considers a potential ban to help bring down US fuel prices ahead of November's midterm elections. Europe's relationship with Washington has soured under Trump due to tariff disputes and disagreements over military spending. For the EU, releasing more stocks would represent a dilemma as it needs to balance the need to bring down fuel prices at home with maintaining high stocks for a possible worsening of the fuel crisis should Trump and Iran not reach a peace deal. The EU's energy taskforce — made up of the European Commission and the 27 EU member countries — will hold a call on Friday morning to discuss the situation, a Commission spokesperson said. The Commission, Germany, France, Italy, Britain and Ireland already held a call on Thursday to discuss the possible need to release diesel stocks, two EU officials told Reuters. The International Energy Agency, the West's energy watchdog, has not yet asked Germany to release stocks, Germany's economy ministry said. It was not clear when the IEA might meet next. The US administration has been particularly frustrated with France and Germany, which US officials believe have not fully followed through on earlier commitments to release emergency oil and petroleum product stocks, Reuters has reported previously. "It is in Europe’s best interest to work with the United States as we pursue multiple pathways to boost the supply of refined products and lower costs for consumers," one of the sources, a US official, told Reuters. A second source, based in a European capital, said that the US has asked the EU to release 120 million barrels of diesel over the next six months. Europe has become increasingly dependent on US fuel after banning Russian imports over Russia's invasion of Ukraine and after the US-Israeli war against Iran disrupted supplies from the Middle East. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright told Fox News on Thursday that he was "highly confident" Europe could ease fuel prices by drawing down emergency diesel inventories. "This is a time for a coordinated release of diesel stores as we go into to harvest season and we go into winter heating oil season," Wright told Fox. "Now's the time to bring more diesel to the market, and that diesel is available. I think we have some positive news coming." US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington had done its share of an agreement struck in March among International Energy Agency members in releasing 172 million barrels of US oil. "America is doing its part," Bessent said on X. "We look to our allies to match their commitments with action."

US Threatens Diesel Export Ban to Germany, France If They Don’t Draw Down Domestic Reserves - - The White House is threatening NATO allies Germany and France for refusing to release diesel fuel from their emergency inventories. “US officials said France and Germany could be cut off from future US diesel exports.Reuters first reported the US threat to its allies on Thursday after speaking with three people familiar with the discussions. A US official speaking with The New York Post explained, “It is in Europe’s best interest to work with the United States as we pursue multiple pathways to boost the supply of refined products and lower costs for consumers.” Energy Secretary Chris Wright told Politico that the US is asking the European Union to release 120 million barrels of diesel fuel, more than 40% of the bloc’s emergency diesel stocks. Wright said the proposal was an alternative to a total export ban on US diesel. The EU’s energy task force plans to hold a call on Friday about the bloc potentially tapping further into its members’ fuel reserves.  The dispute comes amid broader tensions between Washington and its European allies over the US-Israeli war against Iran. The conflict has also increased pressure on European fuel supplies as Middle Eastern exports have fallen.  Europe has already suffered an increase in fuel prices as sanctions against Russia and the War in Ukraine have cut the nations off from Russian oil. The war against Iran has added further upward pressure on the price of fuel as Middle East oil supplies have been significantly reduced since the start of the conflict.  Trump is attempting to push down US diesel prices ahead of the midterm elections in early November. Diesel hit a record high of $6.53 per gallon last week.

G7 to release 100 million barrels of fuel and avoid export restrictions among member countries -G7 countries agreed to release a total of 100 million barrels of diesel fuel and crude oil from their reserves over a four-month period and not to impose restrictions on energy exports among themselves. The coordinated release of reserves through the International Energy Agency is due to begin immediately, with a significant amount of diesel fuel expected to be released during the first 20 days. "We reaffirm our commitment to refrain from restrictions on exports of energy and energy products among G7 countries and call on all producers not to impose bans that could increase market tensions," the leaders said. They stressed that concerns among citizens over energy prices remain among their main priorities and that they will closely monitor developments, while remaining ready to adjust the measures if necessary. The decision was taken following a video conference of G7 leaders convened by French President Emmanuel Macron to coordinate action on fuel prices. The meeting came amid US pressure on Europe to use its strategic reserves and Washington's threat to restrict diesel exports. US President Donald Trump said European countries had agreed to release "huge amounts" of diesel fuel from their reserves. "Europe has just agreed to release a huge amount of diesel fuel from its substantial reserves. The process will begin immediately," Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who is currently in Skopje, welcomed the G7 agreement. "We welcome the decision of G7 countries not to impose export bans on allies and the continued solidarity between partners. We support an IEA-coordinated release of fuel stocks," von der Leyen wrote on X. | BGNES

G7 Moves to Release 100 Million Barrels to Counter Diesel Crisis - The G7 and its partners have agreed to release as much as 100 million barrels of emergency diesel and crude stocks over the next four months, putting government inventories into a fuel market that has been running short of refinery output for months. French President Emmanuel Macron said Friday that the release would be coordinated through the International Energy Agency, with an emphasis on diesel. European countries had discussed releasing 50 million barrels of diesel while IEA members would supply another 50 million barrels of crude. President Donald Trump welcomed the move after his administration pressed Europe to draw down its emergency stocks and floated restrictions on U.S. diesel exports. “Europe has just agreed to release a massive amount of their heavily stocked Diesel Oil. The process will begin immediately,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. The market reacted immediately. European gasoil futures fell more than 4% Friday, while Brent dropped about $3 to below $100 per barrel. Diesel’s premium over crude fell to roughly $69 per barrel from $76.77 on Thursday. There is plenty for these reserve barrels to work on. U.S. diesel prices recently reached a record $6.50 per gallon. European diesel futures have traded above $200 per barrel. Middle Eastern refinery outages, Russian refinery damage, and export restrictions have removed millions of barrels of product supply, and Chinese refiners have suspended October fuel exports to preserve domestic stocks. Europe also has a direct interest in using the stocks. It consumes more diesel than it produces and has become increasingly dependent on U.S. imports. A U.S. export ban would tighten European supply further while potentially forcing American refiners to cut runs once domestic storage is filled. The release buys time. It puts physical diesel into the market during a period of acute shortage and takes some pressure off prices. It does not, however, add refinery capacity. The IEA already coordinated a 400-million-barrel emergency release in March after the Iran war began, with about two-thirds of those barrels released so far. The G7 statement indicates that the 100 million barrels will help complete the emergency-release commitments made in March, rather than a clearly additional 100-million-barrel tranche. Emergency inventories can bridge a supply disruption. The underlying diesel shortage still depends on getting damaged and idled refineries back into service.

Trump rules out diesel export ban after European release | BGNES - He welcomed the decision by European countries to release part of their reserves. U.S. President Donald Trump said that Washington would not impose a ban on diesel exports, while welcoming the decision by European countries to release part of their reserves. “Well, it was never really on the table. But what Europe did was a great thing,” Trump said at the White House when asked by an AFP reporter whether the United States had now abandoned the idea of an export ban. “I asked for it. Europe has a lot of diesel and they’re going to be making a major contribution to the world – and so are we. And we’re not going to impose an export ban. We’re going to do what we’re supposed to do,” he added. Trump initially said on September 22 that he supported a ban on diesel exports, which would have lowered prices for U.S. consumers but put pressure on supplies in other parts of the world. As recently as October 1, he said the United States was still considering the option, while his administration was pressuring Europe to release part of its reserves. On October 2, G7 countries agreed to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil from their reserves over four months to ease concerns about global energy supplies caused by the war in the Middle East. Trump’s Republican Party risks losing control of Congress in next month’s midterm elections amid voter dissatisfaction over the conflict and its impact on energy prices.

US Faults Lebanon on Disarmament; PM Urges Respect for Lebanese Sovereignty -  -- The ongoing trilateral talks between the US, Lebanon and Israel are, as ever, accomplishing comparatively little. Lebanese PM Nawaf Salam held talks with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Monday, seeking progress.Salam said it was important for the US to support “tangible results on the ground,” including steps toward an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory and the restoration of Lebanese sovereignty. The US, for its part, continued to complain that the Lebanese aren’t doing enough to forcibly disarm Hezbollah, and that Israel would continue to occupy southern Lebanon until the country showed more commitment to that agenda.The Lebanese government has agreed to disarm Hezbollah, but actually accomplishing that is something no one seems able to achieve, and Lebanon has noted that the ongoing Israeli aggression is limiting their ability to even access Hezbollah’s southern territory to even attempt it. The various positions of the parties seem almost to assure this continued situation. Israel has refused to even consider committing to withdraw from Lebanon, and Lebanese parliament speaker Nabih Berri said he believes only the insistence of the US could compel Israel to do so. The US, however, has shown no willingness to object to the Israeli occupation of Lebanon, and is more inclined to denounce the Lebanese for failing to give in to Israel’s demands. Hezbollah, for its part, has said they don’t intend to disarm, and won’t even discuss that possibility until Lebanon isn’t under active invasion and Lebanese territory isn’t facing ongoing military occupation by Israel. They argue they’re effectively the only ones resisting the conquest.  The status quo isn’t merely an inconvenience, however. Israel is actively wiping out municipalities in southern Lebanon and large scale demolitions are, unsurprisingly not being done with tremendous care, leaving ancient architecture in the line of military bulldozers and artillery shelling, erasing buildings that are in many cases centuries old.

Senate Defeats Effort To Require Report on Israeli Killings of US Citizens in the West Bank - On Tuesday night, the Senate voted against advancing a resolution that would have required the State Department to produce a report on the killing of US citizens by Jewish settlers and Israeli security forces in the Israeli-occupied West Bank. An effort to discharge the resolution failed 47-51, with just one Republican — Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) — voting in favor of the measure and one Democrat — Sen. Jon Fetterman (D-PA) — voting against it. While the vote failed, Responsible Statecraft noted that it received far more support than a similar resolution introduced in January 2024, which failed 72-11. The new resolution was led by Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD), Tim Kaine (D-VA), and Bernie Sanders (I-VT), and received a total of 25 cosponsors. “In just over four years, nine American citizens have been killed on the West Bank by violent Israeli settlers or members of the Israeli security forces, and there has been zero accountability,” Van Hollen said in a speech on the Senate floor before the vote, according to The Hill. The nine US citizens who have been killed by settlers and Israeli security forces include Omar Assad, Shireen Abu Akleh, Tawfic Abdel Jabbar, Mohammad Khdour, Ayşenur Ezgi Eygi, Amer Rabee, Sayfollah Kamel Musallet, Khamis Ayyad, and Nasrallah Abu Siyam.The resolution invoked Section 502B(c) of the Foreign Assistance Act, a provision allowing either chamber of Congress to demand a State Department report on the human rights practices of a country receiving US military aid.It would have forced Secretary of State Marco Rubio to submit to Congress, within 30 days, a report on what information is available about the killings of the nine US citizens, the status of US and Israeli investigations into the killings, the number of US citizens currently held in Israeli prisons, the treatment of Palestinian children in Israeli prisons, and a description of the steps the US government has taken to reduce violence in the West Bank.

US Launches More Airstrikes in Somalia as Trump Continues Record-Breaking Bombing Campaign - News From Antiwar.com -US Africa Command said in a press release on Monday that its forces launched more airstrikes in Somalia as the Trump administration continues a record-shattering bombing campaign in the country. The command said that the strikes were launched on September 24 and targeted al-Shabaab in the vicinity of Qumbi, a village about 55 miles northwest of the southern port city of Kismayo. AFRICOM offered no other details about the attack as it stopped sharing casualty estimates and assessments on potential civilian harm last year.There were no statements from the US-backed Somali government about operations that day, but Somali media reported that there have been ongoing battles around Qumbi between US-backed Somali forces and al-Shabaab that have been supported by airstrikes launched by “international partners.” The September 24 attacks marked at least the third time the US has bombed the vicinity of Qumbi this month.The command described the September 24 attacks in the plural, suggesting it launched at least two strikes. Based on Antiwar.com’s tally of AFRICOM statements and announcements, the two strikes bring the number of US airstrikes in Somalia this year to at least 85.The number reflects more airstrikes than the US ever launched in Somalia prior to 2025, when President Trump shattered the previous record for annual US strikes by launching 124.  Despite the record number of strikes, the US war in Somalia receives virtually no US media coverage.The US has also been conducting a bombing campaign against an ISIS affiliate in Somalia’s northeastern Puntland region and is planning to establish a military base in Bosaso, a port city in Puntland on the Gulf of Aden. The US has been involved in Somalia for decades and has been fighting al-Shabaab since the George W. Bush administration backed an Ethiopian invasion in 2006 that ousted the Islamic Courts Union, a Muslim coalition that briefly held power in Mogadishu after taking the city from CIA-backed warlords.

US Launches Two More Airstrikes in Somalia as Bombing Campaign Continues Amid Media Blackout - US Africa Command said in a press release on Wednesday that its forces launched two more airstrikes in Somalia as the Trump administration continues its record-shattering bombing campaign in the country, a war that’s ignored by US media despite AFRICOM announcing its strikes.The command said both strikes were launched on September 25, and that one targeted al-Shabaab near Welmaro, about 25 miles west of Jilib, a city in Somalia’s southern Jubaland state. AFRICOM said the other strike occurred near Ali Farhan, about 55 miles northeast of Jilib.As usual, AFRICOM offered no other details about the attacks, as it stopped sharing casualty estimates and assessments of potential civilian harm since last year, and there don’t appear to be any statements from US-backed forces or Somali media reports about clashes in the area that day.Based on Antiwar.com’s tally of AFRICOM statements and announcements, the strike brings the number of US airstrikes in Somalia this year to at least 86. The number reflects more airstrikes than the US ever launched in Somalia before 2025, when President Trump shattered the previous record for annual US strikes by launching 124. The previous record, which he set in 2019, was 63.The US has also been conducting a bombing campaign against an ISIS affiliate in Somalia’s northeastern Puntland region and is planning to establish a military base in Bosaso, a port city in Puntland on the Gulf of Aden. The establishment of the base signals there may be more US escalations in Somalia, and it could also be used as a launchpad for attacks against Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthis, in Yemen.The US has been involved in Somalia for decades and has been fighting al-Shabaab since the George W. Bush administration backed an Ethiopian invasion in 2006 that ousted the Islamic Courts Union, a Muslim coalition that briefly held power in Mogadishu after taking the city from CIA-backed warlords. Al-Shabaab emerged as the radical offshoot of the Islamic Courts Union, and its first recorded attack was a suicide bombing in 2007 that targeted Ethiopian troops occupying Mogadishu. It wasn’t until 2012 that the group pledged loyalty to al-Qaeda. The ISIS affiliate in Puntland started as an offshoot of al-Shabaab and first emerged in 2015.

Trump disputes his ambassador’s account that he asked China’s president if he wanted to buy US arms (AP) — President Donald Trump disputed that he asked Chinese leader Xi Jinping if he wanted to buy weapons from the United States, contradicting an account from the U.S. ambassador to China. Trump on Monday acted confused when a reporter asked him about Ambassador David Perdue’s remarks over the weekend, suggesting the diplomat was confusing China with Taiwan. But then Trump said “maybe it’s a good idea” to make such an offer to China. The whiplash over the prospect of arms sales from the U.S. to its ascendant geopolitical rival underlines the Trump administration’s often uncoordinated and contradictory approach to China, including Xi’s pomp-filled state visit to Washington last week during which Trump appeared to get little in return on key issues. Perdue, speaking to Shannon Bream on Fox News Channel’s “Fox News Sunday” days after the summit, didn’t specify when the offer was made. But such a proposal, if realized, would upend generations of U.S. policy toward China and Taiwan and expose U.S. technology to a potential foe. The State Department on Monday looked to distance the Trump administration from Perdue’s comments, saying that “U.S. law prohibits arms sales to China and there is no offer or plan to sell arms to China.” Hours later, Trump seemed to be doing the same. “To China? You mean to Taiwan?” he said when a reporter asked him about Perdue’s account. “I never heard of that one. I’m going to have to ask him,” Trump said. He then mused that China would probably like to buy U.S. equipment, which he said was superior, and added: “So maybe it’s a good idea. But we didn’t discuss it. He may have been talking about Taiwan. I think he was probably talking about Taiwan.” Perdue said Sunday that the Republican president was downplaying longstanding U.S. arms sales to Taiwan — which have drawn protest from Beijing for years — by couching it as just one of many sales Washington makes around the world, and even asking Xi if he’d be in the market for U.S. weaponry. Bream had cited concerns from Republican and Democratic lawmakers over delayed aid packages and weapons orders to Taiwan, a self-ruled democracy that seeks to defend itself from China’s threat to invade the island. Bream asked if the U.S. is denying arms to Taiwan to appease the Chinese president. Perdue pushed back on the suggestion, stating that Trump “is as strong on Taiwan as I’ve ever seen anybody” and has sold it plenty of weapons. Perdue also said Trump and Xi continue to talk about future U.S. weapons sales to Taiwan. “But President Trump continues to say, ‘Hey, we sell arms to other people around the world,’” Perdue said. “He actually asked President Xi, would he like to buy some, at one point.”

Okinawa Town Strongly Protests Deployment of US Typhon Missile Launcher - --The town of Kadena in Japan’s Okinawa Prefecture, which hosts a US military base, has strongly protested a planned US deployment of a Typhon missile launcher, which can fire Tomahawk missiles that have a range of over 1,000 miles, putting mainland China in range. According to The Japan Times, the Okinawa Defense Bureau said the Typhon system will be stored at Kadena Air Base indefinitely and will be transferred there after it was deployed for the annual Orient Shield Exercises, which concluded on September 24.Kadena Mayor Hiroshi Toyama has called the deployment “totally unacceptable,” and the town lodged a formal complaint to the Okinawa Defense Bureau, demanding the plan be withdrawn.“I cannot help but feel extremely strong distrust towards the stance of both the Japanese and U.S. governments, which disregard the excessive burden of the bases on the townspeople,” Toyama said.The Typhon system, which can also fire SM-6 missiles, was developed by the US following its withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, an agreement between the US and Russia that banned Washington and Moscow from developing land-based missile systems with a range between 310 and 3,400 miles.The US first deployed a Typhon to the region in 2024, sending one to the Philippines, where it remains today. At the time, China said the move had “put the entire region under the fire of the United States (and) brought huge risks of war into the region.” This year, the US fired a Tomahawk missile during drills in the Philippines, a major provocation that was also strongly denounced by Beijing.

Kremlin Says US-Russia Arms Control Talks Should Have Started 'Yesterday' - -The Kremlin said on Monday that arms control talks between the US and Russia should have begun “yesterday,” as no nuclear arms control treaties remain in effect between the two powers after New START expired earlier this year.Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the negotiations on a potential replacement for New START should have begun already, since it would be a very meticulous process.“This is such a complex matter that it requires very lengthy, meticulous, and expert-level negotiations. Therefore, in any case, it will be a process that takes a long time,” he said, according to Russia’s TASS news agency.  The New START capped the number of nuclear warheads either side can deploy at 1,550 and also limited the deployment of delivery systems. Before the treaty expired, Russian President Vladimir Putin offered to extend the limits for one year while the two sides negotiated a replacement, but Moscow said Washington never responded.US officials have also denied reports of an informal agreement to continue observing the treaty’s limits, but so far there’s been no sign that either the US or Russia has deployed extra warheads or launchers since it expired.The US has called for any replacement treaty to also include China, but Beijing has repeatedly rejected the idea since its nuclear arsenal is significantly smaller than the US or Russia’s. In response to the US calls, Moscow has said that the treaty should also include the UK and France.

US Ambassador Sparks Firestorm After Telling Greek Minister Washington Can Topple Any Government - US Ambassador to Greece Kimberly Guilfoyle has set off a firestorm of diplomatic controversy over unusually blunt remarks centered on Greece's government and US policy. It also raised questions of US covert 'influence operations' and regime change activities. The words issued by the former Fox News host were picked up by The Wall Street Journal, which described that the alleged remark was made during a March dinner in Athens. Greek Energy Minister Stavros Papastavrou was said to be at the gathering, which quickly became tense. A discussion ensued over the impending collapse of Romania's government. Guilfoyle pronounced that the United States had a role in influencing the crisis. She reportedly then said, "We can do that to any country we want. We can do that here." Her indicating that it could be done "here" was of course a reference to Greece itself, and the account is presented as her boasting to a top government minister's face that Washington can change governments whenever it wants. Here is the fuller context in which the WSJ report presents it: Some Greek officials say they are happy their country, often overlooked in Washington, has the attention of an ambassador who can easily reach the U.S. president. They are also fearful of getting on her bad side. In March, at a dinner in Athens attended by Greek and U.S. officials, Guilfoyle got into an argument with Greece’s energy minister, Stavros Papastavrou, in front of the other guests. Referring to the impending collapse of the Romanian government, Guilfoyle told the group, “We can do that to any country we want. We can do that here,” according to a person who attended the dinner and others who were told about it. The conversation became heated, with Papastavrou retorting that the U.S. couldn’t replace the government of Greece, which was elected by the people. Guilfoyle’s lawyer disputed the characterization of the exchange. Greek opposition parties have seized on the exchange, after which Greek government spokesperson Pavlos Marinakis sought to downplay and deny, saying the issue of changing the government "was never raised" and that it would not be tolerated if so.

US Military Staging For Cuba Invasion Contingency - CBS News reported on Saturday that the US Military has been working to establish “the groundwork for potential action around Cuba.” According to the report, CBS reviewed an internal US Army Reserve message sent to subordinate commands. The message requested an assessment on the feasibility of providing several types of units to US Southern Command within 90 to 120 days. The message did not mention Cuba, but CBS said it spoke to US officials who said the assessment request is centered on the beleaguered Caribbean island nation off the coast of Florida. Southern Command’s “area of responsibility” comprises “31 countries and 12 dependencies and areas of special sovereignty” in Central America, the Caribbean, and South America. The assessment request seeks to determine how quickly a combat sustainment support battalion, an engineer battalion, an expeditionary sustainment command, a medical brigade, a forward resuscitative and surgical detachment, and a military police brigade could be stood up. Together, these units would check a lot of invasion boxes, including logistics, transportation, maintenance, fuel and supplies, engineering, medical treatment, emergency surgery, security, detention, and law-enforcement support. The report comes just days after President Donald Trump, during a speech to the United Nations General Assembly, vowed that Cuba “will fall”: “[T]he situation in Cuba, where the communist regime is under great pressure, the biggest pressure they’ve ever been under. It’s an absolutely failed state. It’s failing like never before. And it will fall. Marco Rubio is handling a negotiation. He’s deep into negotiations with Cuba. Let’s see what happens. [We will] not allow a haven for foreign adversaries to threaten America on our own doorstep. It’s right at our doorstep,” Trump said. During the same UN speech, Trump raised the possibility that he would have to “annihilate” Iran and also touted a new security arrangement with Greenland and the Kingdom of Denmark. The Trump Administration has publicly committed to securing “Greater North America” and, based on its actions, also seems intent on curating a Greater Western Hemisphere. Secretary of State and Acting National Security Director Marco Rubio has been “running Venezuela from afar” since the US attacked the country and abducted President Nicolas Maduro, and he will most likely become Cuba’s overlord if the US is able to conquer the island next. Rubio is of Cuban descent and part of the Cuban American political bloc in Florida that has yearned to destroy the government in Havana for decades. On July 20, Rubio’s State Department published “Cuba: The Capital of 21st Century Communism.” The nearly 100-page report described the Cuban state as “the center of a vast hemispheric network” intent on destroying the United States and collapsing Western Civilization. In August, POLITICO reported that US intelligence assets had descended on Cuba for apparent regime-change-oriented activities. The US has also placed Cuba under crushing economic sanctions and ramped up an oil embargo following the attack on Venezuela, causing rolling blackouts and a devastating humanitarian crisis.

Pentagon Announces Plan To Launch ‘Autonomous Warfare Command’ To Leverage ‘Super Intelligence’ In Warfare -  - US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth on Wednesday announced plans to create a new four-star combatant command to leverage AI in warfare. During a “State of the Force” address at Marine Corps Base Quantico, Virginia, Hegseth said the Autonomous Warfare Command (AUTOWARCOM) would be tasked with scaling “autonomous and robotic capabilities across the Joint Force in the fastest peacetime shift in modern military history.”The Pentagon intends to launch AUTOWARCOM by October 2027, but it will need to secure Congressional approval to do so. If approved, AUTOWARCOM will become the military’s 12th combatant command. The last new command was US Space Command, launched in 2019 under the first Trump Administration. AUTOWARCOM will coordinate drones, robotics, artificial intelligence, and autonomous weapons platforms across the military. It will work to expedite acquisition and deployment of new technologies and seek to make autonomous warfare a central military doctrine.Hegseth said the necessity of the new command was made clear by the Russia–Ukraine war and its proliferation of low-cost drones in combat. “Today, with…Autowarcom …we institutionalize — and we supercharge — the era of [super intelligence], robotics and autonomous systems, all in order to win,” Hegseth said.  Pentagon critics have taken the War Department to task for continuing to field extremely expensive platforms, such as aircraft carriers, that are increasingly useless in a modern battle. Hegseth’s speech implied that the Pentagon would continue to field such platforms but also explore modern systems. According to the War Department, Hegseth “announced that he has directed the direct reporting portfolio manager for unmanned systems to lead ‘Project Agincourt,’ an organization that will establish the pathway for [AUTOWARCOM], as well as to execute the existing unmanned systems mission while prototyping a new acquisition model.” He also promised that through Project Meridian, “the Pentagon’s chief technology officer would partner with members of the private sector to study the future of warfare.”

Senators give cold shoulder to Hegseth plan to cut admirals, generals - Defense-focused senators are giving a cool reception to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s proposal to cut by 20 percent the number of nation’s admirals and generals. Several lawmakers said they had not seen the rationale for Hegseth’s argument, while others clearly wanted to talk about other things. “No, I certainly want to see his rationale in detail, and I don’t have that yet,” Sen. Ted Budd (R-N.C.) said when asked if this was a good move for the U.S. military. “We are focused [on] what we are doing today,” Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) told reporters when asked about the cuts. When reporters approached Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) for comment Wednesday, the Senate Armed Services Committee chair began singing lyrics from Alfred Tennyson’s “Ulysses,” which is based on Homer’s “Odyssey.” “There lies the port; the vessel puffs her sail; there gloom the dark, broad seas. My mariners, souls that have toiled, and wrought, and thought with me,” Wicker sang. Hegseth’s office did not respond to The Hill’s request for comment. Democrats have, unsurprisingly, been more vocal with their criticisms. Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), a former CIA analyst, said Wednesday that by any standard, Hegseth is carrying out a “purge” at the Pentagon. “And what I’ve been hearing from people inside the department is just how bad morale is. How many folks in uniform, extremely promising people, who are people of color or women just feel like there’s no way they’ll ever get ahead; that they’ll always be perceived as a DEI [diversity, equity and inclusion] case, no matter how fantastic a job they do,” Slotkin told reporters. There were some Republicans offering measured support for the proposal. Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), a former Navy radarman and President Trump ally, told The Hill that he hadn’t seen the plan, “but as a general rule, I think most organizations have become top-heavy, and so I think as part of what he’s doing to look and make sure we have the most efficient military, we don’t waste our money.” Hegseth publicly confirmed the plan during a wide-ranging speech to active-duty officers at Marine Corps Base Quantico in Virginia on Wednesday. The Defense secretary argued the major shake-up, which will affect senior leadership positions across the Army, Navy and the Air Force, was long overdue.

Donald Trump calls Canada ‘one of the worst countries in the entire world’ as trade ban takes effect - President Trump said Monday that Canada is “one of the worst countries in the entire world” in the wake of heightened tensions between Washington and its historically friendly northern neighbor. “The problem is that they’ve treated the United States very unfairly. They have been one of the worst countries in the entire world. You know, we get along with China, we get along with people and we make good deals,” the president said in the Oval Office. “But Canada has been really very difficult to deal with, actually. They’ve charged our farmers 400 percent tariffs and more. And they take advantage of us,” he added. On Tuesday, Trump’s ban on close to $1 billion in Canadian goodswent into effect, another strike in a trade war between Washington and Ottawa. It covers Canadian dairy products, motor vehicles and numerous alcoholic beverages. While signing the executive orders to ban the goods, Trump cited “discrimination” against American equivalents. There has been an atypical animosity between the U.S. and Canada throughout Trump’s second term, not just over trade, but also over the president’s push to acquire the U.S.’s northern neighbor. The relationship reached a breaking point after trade negotiations between Washington and Ottawa fell apart in August, and the two countries slapped tariffs on each other’s goods. Earlier this month, Carney said his country had an overreliance on “easy” economic links to the U.S. “The past 40 years has been a period of deeper economic integration with the United States. Truth is, it was easy business, but it meant we relied too much on one economic partner. It’s clear that time is over,” Carney said in a video posted to YouTube in early September.

IER Wants Canadian Oil and Gas Counted as American-Made -- Marcellus Drilling News --Here’s an argument you don’t hear every day: the oil and natural gas the United States buys from Canada shouldn’t count as “imports” at all. That’s the case laid out in a new report from the Institute for Energy Research (IER), published September 18. Change how Washington keeps the books, IER argues, and the alarming-sounding trade deficit with Canada very nearly disappears — no tariffs, no trade war, just honest accounting.

Trump set to unveil $54B South Korean investment in Alaska LNG - - President Donald Trump unveiled a $200 billion package of investments from South Korea Wednesday, including proposed funds for a long-stalled liquefied natural gas project in Alaska. The announcement is part of a White House effort to highlight economic wins ahead of the midterms and featured heavy praise for Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska), who is fighting to win reelection this fall and attended the event at the White House announcing the funding. But the South Korean government has only said that it is considering the Alaska project and has not confirmed that it approved funding — which would go well beyond the $20 billion cap that Korea’s National Assembly put in place in March for annual outbound investment to the U.S. The South Korean embassy did not immediately respond to a request for comment. According to the White House, the South Korean government will put money into U.S. energy projects including a natural gas power plant in Texas and eight nuclear power plants. They are the first investment announcements to come out of an August 2025 trade deal in which Seoul agreed to invest $350 billion in projects in exchange for reductions in threatened U.S. tariffs — which includes $150 billion for shipbuilding projects. “The colossal package of investments that we are announcing today is a major step toward securing our critical energy supply chain, ensuring American energy dominance and making our partnership with South Korea and the entire Pacific region more powerful than ever before,” Trump said. Bloomberg first reported the investment news. The White House was quick to celebrate the potential $54 billion investment in the proposed Alaska LNG project, which would include an 800-mile pipeline to carry gas from the North Slope to an export terminal on the state’s south coast. The pipeline funding would be a massive boost to a project that has been stalled for decades amid questions around its massive price tag and ability to find customers. The Trump administration has explored a range of options to speed its development. Brendan Duval, the CEO of Glenfarne, a New York and Texas-based developer in charge of the project, said at the White House event the pipeline would be built within three years and that construction could start immediately after receiving funding.

Korea to Trump: We aren’t funding your Alaska pipeline, yet - The Korean government denied Thursday morning that it has finalized an investment for a long-stalled Alaskan natural gas project, less than 24 hours after President Donald Trump tried to help boost the state’s Republican senator with a flashy Oval Office funding announcement. “This is a great senator, who is totally responsible for this pipeline,” Trump said of Sen. Dan Sullivan, who stood beside him Wednesday at the White House. “This is a man that works with me, shoulder to shoulder.” There is just one problem: Korea says the pipeline investment is still under review. Korean President Lee Jae Myung and several other members of his government said Thursday that their investment in the Alaska pipeline remains conditional. “The Alaska LNG project will proceed to working level under the preconditions that 1) its commercial viability is confirmed and 2) it complies with the legal procedures of the Republic of Korea,” Lee posted on X Thursday morning, according to a translation. The government also issued a release saying “the two countries have agreed to begin reviewing the project,” and will proceed based on “commercial reasonableness requirements.” The project involves a large-scale natural gas pipeline to transport energy from northern Alaska to the southern part of the state and would create a terminal that would help facilitate exports to Asian countries like South Korea and Japan. Presidents have been promising to tap into those isolated natural gas reserves in northern Alaska since the Carter administration, but several efforts have failed to attract investment due to concerns about cost and future returns. Trump on Wednesday claimed South Korea had committed $54 billion in funding for the project as part of a $350 billion U.S. investment pledge Seoul made last year in a deal to lower threatened U.S. tariffs. He also said that Korea would spend around $120 billion on eight nuclear plants across four states and around $20 billion on a natural gas power plant in Texas. It was the latest in a series of events the White House has held in recent days to tout massive foreign investment for projects in midterm battleground states — even if the details remain fuzzy. Earlier this week, the administration highlighted a new steel plant in Iowa, but some industry experts are skeptical that the plant will be built given the troubled financial past of Mesabi Metallics, the company linked to it, and the fact that its projections are based on the current high U.S. steel prices. Trump made it clear Wednesday that the LNG investment announcement had to do with Sullivan’s election chances. He denounced the fact that another candidate named Dan Sullivan — who is running as an independent — was allowed on Alaska’s ballot in November and told the reporters gathered that the incumbent Sullivan had his ear. “I have to tell you this because he has an election,” Trump said at one point. Trump and Sullivan emphasized Wednesday that the pipeline project would be transformative for Alaskans, and a developer claimed the project would be done in three years. No members of the Korean government spoke during the White House announcement. If they had, they might have pointed out that the government in Seoul had already allocated its annual $20 billion U.S. investment commitment for the natural gas power plant in Texas — another state where Republicans are in a closely contested Senate race.

Trump Says South Korea Deal Includes $8.4 Billion U.S. Oil Project - President Donald Trump said Friday that South Korea’s investment agreement with the United States now includes $8.4 billion for an enhanced oil recovery project. Seoul says it agreed to no such thing. “The Republic of Korea Deal keeps getting BETTER! 8.4 Billion Dollars for an enhanced Oil Recovery Project. Producing more Oil and Gas means American Energy Dominance and Energy Security in the World for the Future!” Trump wrote on Truth Social. Enhanced oil recovery (EOR) is used to squeeze more production from aging fields after extraction slows using conventional methods. The process can involve injecting carbon dioxide, natural gas, steam, or other materials into a reservoir to push more oil toward producing wells. The Truth Social post did not identify the field, operator, or location of the $8.4 billion project. South Korea’s industry ministry said the EOR investment was not included in the strategic investment agreement reached between the two countries. Seoul has asked Washington for clarification, according to Yonhap. This isn’t the only round of U.S.-South Korean investment announcements this week, and just a couple weeks ago, South Korea said it was looking to cut its reliance on Middle Eastern crude by as much as half by 2035. Trump said Wednesday that South Korea would put $200 billion into U.S. projects, including eight large nuclear power plants, a 6-gigawatt power generation facility in Texas and a pipeline associated with the Alaska LNG project. That $200 billion sits alongside another $150 billion pledged for shipbuilding under a broader $350 billion investment package negotiated last year. Seoul has been considerably more cautious about the Alaska piece. South Korea’s government says participation in the roughly $54 billion pipeline project remains subject to commercial viability and legal review, with no final investment decision yet made.

Supreme Court lets quick deportations to third countries resume for now while it weighs Trump policy - (AP) — The Supreme Court on Tuesday let President Donald Trump’s administration continue swiftly deporting people to countries other than their own for now, while the justices consider whether the policy is legal. The apparent 6-3 order temporarily lifts lower court requirements for migrants to get a chance to object before being sent to countries to which they have no ties. The Supreme Court will hear arguments in December. Justices Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan and Ketanji Brown Jackson would have kept the lower court order in place. The Trump administration said last week the lower court order forced the cancellation of a deportation flight carrying about 70 people bound for three countries. The conservative majority has sided with the administration before on the core Trump administration policy, allowing deportation flights to temporarily continue last year. The court said it will consider several questions: whether the policy is lawful, whether lower courts had the authority to consider the case and issue a sweeping block, as well as other questions the government deems appropriate. The order “has now allowed the administration to resume sending people to third countries where they may face persecution, torture, imprisonment, or other grave danger,” said Trina Realmuto, executive director of the National Immigration Litigation Alliance and one of the lawyers representing immigrants in the case. “But today’s order does not decide that the government’s policy is lawful,” she said in a statement. “The Court will hear that question on an expedited schedule.” Under a series of often-secret agreements, the Trump administration has deported some 25,000 people to more than two dozen countries, from Liberia to Guyana. The vast majority have been sent to Mexico. Trump’s Republican administration has said that it sends people with final deportation orders to third countries when they can’t be returned to their homelands or their native countries won’t accept them, including those who have criminal convictions. Those governments provide assurances that people won’t be persecuted or tortured, federal attorneys said. Attorney General Todd Blanche called the policy “an entirely lawful and critical tool for immigration enforcement” in a social media post. Some migrants, though, have found themselves imprisoned in countries they’d never heard of before their arrivals. Others also face serious safety risks and are left with little choice except to return to the home countries they were fleeing. Many have no criminal convictions and have been found to be at risk of torture or persecution, attorneys for the immigrants said. The case comes amid a sweeping immigration crackdown by the Trump administration, which has pledged to deport millions of people who are living in the United States illegally.

GOP lawmakers challenge Trump’s nearly $1B funding clawback -  Republican lawmakers are pushing back on President Trump’s decision to cancel nearly $1 billion in federal funding, setting up a new clash between the White House and members of Trump’s own party at a particularly precarious moment for the GOP. The administration announced Friday that it would use a budget maneuver known as a “pocket rescission” to claw back funding for a range of federal programs, especially grants through the Department of Health and Human Services that support minority students, refugee resettlement and children without legal status. The cancellation comes less than 45 days before the end of the fiscal year, meaning the canceled funds will be paused through the year’s end regardless of what Congress does in response. The move threatens to further stiffen the government funding process, which is already mired in partisanship over how much the government should spend on defense versus domestic programs. Whether Congress can manage a regular funding procedure this winter is already in question and will be determined, in large part, by the outcome of the midterm elections. The White House has defended the new cuts as necessary to eliminate government waste and fraud, arguing that some money originally intended for refugee resettlement is no longer needed because fewer people are crossing the southern border illegally. But Republicans on the congressional Appropriations committees, who are supposed to be in charge of the government’s purse, have never liked rescissions. Several of them voiced concern that the White House is encroaching on Congress’s constitutional authority over federal spending. Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee, said in a statement Friday that the move is “the most recent attempt by this Office of Management and Budget (OMB) to undermine Congress’s Constitutional power of the purse.” “This move shows that OMB intentionally withheld these funds for months to execute this unlawful cancellation of appropriations that were approved on a bipartisan basis and signed into law,” Collins said. “Not only is the delay itself an impoundment that was not reported to Congress, but also it is a usurpation of Congress’s appropriations powers. OMB is an agency of the executive branch. It does not get to decide which programs are worth funding.” Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.), asked whether he agrees with Collins that the move was unlawful, said he thinks “there’s that argument for sure.” “I think as an appropriator, she feels strongly that these are decisions made by appropriators, and that the administration doesn’t have this authority. That again is something the courts probably decide,” Thune said. “You know, I think whether you agree in substance or not with what they did and argue that they, you know, be good stewards, and some of these things may be things that many of us agree with, but the process by which they did it is one that is going to be, I assume, subject to a lot of discussion and probably some litigation.” Collins said she will work with her colleagues to fight the rescissions, telling reporters Monday that some options include inserting language in the next set of appropriations bills to prevent something similar from happening or taking legal action. Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), who is also on the committee, said while she thinks it’s possible to add more guardrails to funding in the next appropriations bills, Congress needs a more permanent fix to avoid further legal questions over federal funding authority. She floated a long-term reform of the Impoundment Control Act, a 1974 law that’s supposed to prevent the president from freezing or reversing appropriated funds but in practice gives him more authority to do so through rescissions. “I think we need more clarity to it,” Murkowski said of that law. “It’s something that when the OMB director first came in, he said he doesn’t think it’s constitutional. So we’ve got a debate lined up already between what he thinks he is able to do, and what we think he is able to do. So maybe we should clarify that confusion, probably not a bad idea.” Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.), another appropriator, said the rescissions move was “wrong” and that it would hamper the regular government funding process, which is already at a partisan stalemate. He stressed that that process matters because Republicans and Trump want to boost defense spending through appropriations amid the war with Iran.

Senate negotiators reach deal on permitting text –   Senate negotiators said Monday they have reached a bipartisan deal on a permitting package, locking in the contours of long-sought legislation to speed up approvals for new energy projects in the U.S.Democratic negotiators Sens. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) and Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) were withholding their endorsements on text of a final deal as they discussed “the last five yards” of an agreement to reform the nation’s permitting structure, which advocates say has stifled energy development.Senators found agreement and are aiming to release text of the deal this week, according to the key negotiators and their staff.“We have reached a deal on text,” an aide for Heinrich, given anonymity to speak candidly, told POLITICO.Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), chair of the Environment and Public Works Committee, said “the goal” is to release details of the agreement before the end of the week. A vote this week is unlikely. Capito said “lawmakers are running out of time” before recess. The Senate is scheduled to break after this week until after the midterm elections.  Democrats are still looking on clarity on how exactly the Trump administration will adjust its policies regarding wind and solar. A consistent hold-up of negotiations has been the White House’s blockade of wind and solar permitting approvals. “[We need] more clarity from the Trump administration on what their return to regular order means,” Whitehouse said in regards to wind and solar approvals.The issue could be a critical leftover hurdle in getting the support of Democrats before a lame duck vote. President Donald Trump recently offered to ease his administration’s holdup on renewable energy projects to entice Democrats to agree to a permitting deal.Republicans shared a version of the bill on Friday to stakeholders that includes provisions to stop the executive branch from revoking permits except under limited exceptions.Other measures expected to be in the bill would ease siting of interstate transmission lines, including removing DOE’s role as a national transmission planner. The bill would also impose a cost allocation model that would require customers to pay only if they benefit from a given transmission line based on reliability factors.Republicans also included their own top priorities — including a 150-day statute of limitations on lawsuits under the National Environmental Policy Act and the National Historic Preservation Act. It also narrows the circumstances under which states can block projects under Section 401 of the Clean Water Act.

Bipartisan Senate Bill Touted as ‘Generational Opportunity’ to Streamline Energy Permitting - A bipartisan group of senators on Wednesday introduced sweeping legislation meant to streamline the permitting process for energy projects and ensure that data center developers foot the bill for the grid upgrades and expansions they require.US map showing data center locations and capacity alongside the nation’s natural gas pipeline network. At a Glance:

• Legislation would overhaul NEPA, CWA
• Data centers would pay for transmission upgrades
• Interstate pipelines often stymied by legal challenges

Congressional Republicans want permitting reform. An Ohio project shows how tricky that could be. - Lawmakers want to see projects like high voltage transmission lines get up and running quickly, but a transmission project in Western Ohio has drawn local pushback. Several of Ohio’s GOP Congressmen swung through Columbus recently to tout the importance of permitting reform. With data centers driving demand for power and an ocean of natural gas beneath our feet, they argued, federal red tape can’t be the bottle neck delaying new pipelines and transmission lines from getting built. “We can have all the energy in the world from oil and natural gas, but if we can’t move it from point A to point B, it’s worthless,” Bowling Green U.S. Rep. Bob Latta said after a panel discussion hosted by the Ohio Manufacturers Association. At a different event hosted by Arnold Ventures and the Club for Growth, Ohio Republican U.S. Sen. Jon Husted said permitting reform could end “junk lawsuits” and the “political gamesmanship” of energy policy whipsawing from one administration to the next. “We literally have the opportunity through things like permitting reform to reduce the time it takes to do things like build roads and bridges, to build transmission lines, to build power supply that people need to fund and run all of these different operations,” Husted said. A major energy transmission project in Western Ohio offers a glimpse of just how difficult a needle lawmakers are trying to thread. State and local officials seemingly agree that investments in energy infrastructure are worthwhile. The problem is they also agree those investments should be made elsewhere. Grid Growth Ventures, a company with backing from AEP and FirstEnergy, is planning to run power lines from two substations in Central Ohio all the way to the Indiana border. The project will carry high voltage power for hundreds of miles on steel lattice structures from 130 to 175 feet tall. Demand for power in Ohio is growing, and transmission lines like the Grid Growth project are meant to serve that expanding capacity. In a press release, the company compared transmission lines to interstate highways, “helping move power more efficiently to where it is needed most while creating multiple transmission pathways that strengthen reliability across the region.” The regional grid operator, PJM Interconnect, manages the transmission network across its 13-state footprint. PJM approved the Grid Growth’s project in February as part of a broader effort to expand the network’s capacity and reliability. “This project is not being built for hypothetical future growth.” Grid Growth spokesperson Lauren Siburkis said in an emailed statement. “PJM identified critical reliability vulnerabilities in this region and selected this project as the solution to address those needs and help ensure power can continue flowing safely and reliably to millions of homes and businesses across Ohio.” Grid Growth West project map. (Image from Grid Growth’s project announcement packet.) The company must now get approval from the Ohio Power Siting Board for a specific route. The board has several options before it. The members can accept or reject the proposal, make modifications, or apply conditions to the project’s buildout.

Senate bipartisan permitting deal faces a House buzz saw - The Senate’s newly announced bipartisan permitting reform package is set to hit a wall in the House, where one Democratic committee leader is already raising red flags over the legislation. House Natural Resources ranking member Jared Huffman (D-Calif.) warned Wednesday most House Democrats will not support the Senate’s permitting legislation as written, urging them to resume negotiations after the midterm elections. “The bottom line for me, and I believe most Democrats, is that November 3rd is coming and we are likely to soon have a far better negotiating position,” Huffman said in a statement. “Folding our hand now or in the lame duck makes no sense when we can keep working on this and, in a few more months, have a much better deal that works for everyone.” Huffman is betting that Democrats will at least win control of the House and maybe the Senate, giving them greater leverage in negotiations with Republicans. He argues that lawmakers should push talks into next year. Even if Democrats gain control of both chambers, however, they would still have to negotiate with the Trump administration. The Republican and Democratic heads of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources and the Environment and Public Works committees reached a long-sought deal this week on legislationthat would shorten the lengthy process for approving major energy projects. Their package has the backing of the White House and Senate Republican leadership. Senators are hoping to pass the legislation after the midterm elections. Whether it can reach President Donald Trump’s desk is in question. Huffman isn’t alone is suggesting the permitting deal might not be set in stone: One key House Republican negotiator didn’t explicitly get behind the Senate deal Wednesday. Ben Mullany, a spokesperson for House Energy and Commerce Chair Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.), did not explicitly endorse the agreement in a written statement, instead emphasizing the committee’s own efforts to advance permitting reform. “Throughout this Congress, Energy and Commerce Committee Republicans have been fighting to cut red tape and remove the federal barriers to building the energy infrastructure Americans need,” Mullany said. “We look forward to working with our Senate colleagues on a bipartisan, bicameral path forward for permitting reform measures.” Guthrie has his own permitting reform legislation, the POWER Act, which Mullany said incorporates “bills that have passed the House through regular order and with bipartisan support.” The measure remains a discussion draft and has not been formally introduced.

Senate leaves town until after the midterms as final bills founder -  The Senate adjourned Wednesday for the last time before the midterm elections after Democrats blocked Republicans’ last-ditch push to pass more legislation.  Several Republicans facing tough races in November took to the Senate floor to make the case for passing bills they could run on. But Democrats blocked them, leaving Republicans to head home to face voters without fresh legislative victories. Key Bills Blocked:

• Data Center Affordability Bill (Sen. Jon Husted, R-Ohio): Passed the House overwhelmingly but failed in the Senate on a 57–43 vote, falling short of the 60-vote threshold. Democrats opposed it as too weak, arguing it only suggested regulators consider charging large power customers for grid upgrades, while Republicans saw it as a chance to highlight affordability issues ahead of Husted’s tough reelection battle U.S. News & World Report+1.
• Stock Trading and Voter ID Bill (Sen. Pete Ricketts, R-Nebraska): A party-line procedural vote rejected it, with Democrats objecting to its limited scope on insider trading and the voter ID requirement they said could disenfranchise voters The Washington Post.

Beyond these, the Senate left with dozens of major bills unresolved, including:

• The annual $1.8 trillion government funding bills still in dispute.
• The National Defense Authorization Act without a compromise.
• The farm bill years delayed, with bipartisan agreement still lacking

Kennedy Touts AI Over Doctors At Industry-Backed Summit-Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on Sept. 29 touted artificial intelligence (AI) for people making medical decisions at a summit sponsored by AI companies, drawing criticism from some doctors. Kennedy, during an appearance at an event in Washington called the MAHA Summit, said he recently met with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman. Altman, he recalled, told him that “today it would be malpractice for a doctor to make a diagnosis or make a prescription without at least checking AI.” Kennedy went on to reiterate the goal of giving Americans access to their medical records and described how AI could summarize lengthy records. “You may have a medical record that’s a thousand pages long. You have six minutes with a doctor today. He’s not going to be able to review it, but the AI can. And … it can distill it,” Kennedy said. “It can give you a second opinion that is much better informed than any doctor in the country.” Kennedy, a harsh critic of public health advice on masks, vaccines, and other matters during the COVID-19 pandemic, said one benefit of AI is that it could correct such advice from presumed experts. “So it really has the capacity to dominate us to free us from medical tyranny,” he said. AI companies, including OpenAI and Anthropic, sponsored the summit in part. An OpenAI executive spoke during a session called “Building the AI Health Stack.” The comments came as President Donald Trump and other top administration officials promote AI adoption. Trump, who has said it is important for the United States to remain ahead of adversaries such as China on AI, also signed a voluntary accord with AI executives earlier Tuesday. AI provides answers to questions, including medical ones. Multiple lawsuits are pending in court over allegations that medical advice from AI led to catastrophic outcomes, including one from a Florida pastor against OpenAI, who alleged a chatbot instructed him not to seek medical attention when he developed symptoms such as severe dizziness. Kennedy’s remarks prompted criticism from some doctors. “AI is programmed to give you the current narrative pushed by ‘the experts’,” Dr. Jeffrey Dach, a Florida physician, wrote in a Sept. 30 post on X. “This means we get a rehash of the same lies and garbage we are being fed by the ‘experts’ and ‘authorities’ in government agencies captured by industry, and lies and garbage from the captured mass media. AI is merely a souped up search engine that hallucinates answers when it is lost.” Dr. Joe Pierre, a professor of psychiatry at the University of California San Francisco, noted that he ran Kennedy’s comments by ChatGPT, OpenAI’s chatbot. “If his claim is AI is more reliable than MDs when giving people medical advice, the evidence doesn’t establish that,” ChatGPT responded. “In fact, some of the best real-world evidence points in the opposite direction.” Kennedy noted downsides of AI, asking Vice President JD Vance, who appeared with him, to elaborate. “Most of the downsides are all related to models that were literally trained to hack into your computer,” Vance said. He said the best way to deal with the risks is to ensure companies are not shielded from product liability claims through regulations.

Trump announces US will send $90 checks to 20 million seniors enrolled in Medicare -President Trump announced Friday his administration will pay out a total of around $2 billion in checks to over 20 million seniors to offset Medicare Part B premium costs. In an evening Truth Social post, the president said this money would be sourced from the Medicare Improvement Fund, which he called a “pointless ‘Slush Fund.’” The fund was created by Congress in 2008 to make improvements to the Medicare fee-for-service program. “We are finally using this Fund, along with my Most Favored Nations Deals, to substantially LOWER costs for our Seniors,” he wrote in the post. “I pledged to protect and preserve Medicare and Social Security, which were on the verge of RUIN by Joe Biden, who foolishly and maliciously let tens of millions of Illegal Aliens into our Country, and we are doing just that for America’s Seniors.”The Trump administration will make a one-time direct deposit of $90 to the over 20 million people enrolled in this program starting early this month, according to a White House fact sheet. The standard Part B premium in 2026 is $202.90 a month, according to Medicare.This new announcement comes as the president faces a downturn in economic approval ratings ahead of the midterm elections, in which the Republican Party is fighting to maintain its control of Congress. An Associated Press/NORC Research Center poll published Thursday found 65 percent of Americans blame Trump’s policies for rising costs of living in the country. Seventy-three percent said they disapproved of the way he has handled economic issues. In his Friday evening post, the president also repeated a promise he made at the GOP’s midterm convention last month to distribute $5,000 checks to every U.S. adult if the GOP keeps its majority in both legislative chambers this fall. “Because I delivered on this very important issue for the American People, they can also rest assured the highly popular $5,000 Trump Dividend will be distributed to every U.S. Citizen if, and when, the Republicans win the Midterm Elections!” he wrote.

Alito bows out of blockbuster Supreme Court climate case - Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito is stepping back from a major climate argument just a week before the court is scheduled to take up the case. Alito had faced calls to recuse himself from Suncor v. Boulder over his financial interests in energy companies. A Monday letter from Scott Harris, clerk of the court, informed the parties that Alito “has determined that he will not continue to participate in this case.” The notice did not further explain his decision to sit out arguments Oct. 5, the first day of the court’s new term.. In the case, Colorado localities are seeking damages under state tort laws related to the effects of climate change. The suit named Suncor and ExxonMobil. While Alito does not hold stock in those companies, he is invested in several other fossil fuel companies, including oil giants ConocoPhillips and Phillips 66. They are named in many lawsuits similar to Colorado’s that have been filed around the country. The future of those cases will be affected by the Supreme Court’s ruling in Suncor. A spokesperson for the court as recently as May had said that Alito wouldn’t recuse because he didn’t have a ”financial interest in any party” involved in Suncor and that he was advised by the court’s legal counsel that “his recusal is not required.” Alito did recuse himself when the court turned away an appeal from the companies in the Colorado case in 2023. But that recusal came as the court on the same day rejected appeals in similar cases involving other companies, including ConocoPhillips and Phillips 66. The court spokesperson said earlier this year that Alito had “inadvertently recused” himself in the earlier Colorado case “because it was considered at the same time as other cases where the justice did have a financial interest in the parties.” Alito had resisted calls to step aside from the upcoming climate argument, even as watchdog groups note that the entire oil industry is likely to be affected by the decision. California-based Consumer Watchdog has noted that both ConocoPhillips and Phillips 66 have warned shareholders multiple times over the past decade about the potential financial consequences of the litigation. The group called Alito’s recusal the “right decision, and one he should have made from the start.” “The public should not have to wonder whether a justice’s personal investments could benefit from a ruling that shields the fossil-fuel industry from liability,” said Organizing Director Alexandra Nagy. Conservative groups have also called for Justice Elena Kagan to recuse herself as part of a broader effort to discredit a judicial educational manual. The court has not acknowledged those requests. Alito is one of just two justices to hold investments in individual companies, including in fields other than energy. The other is Chief Justice John Roberts, who holds just a few stocks, none in the energy sector.

Common Cents Act awaits president's signature: How it could impact pennies, nickels, cash transactions, and you -  – The Senate on Monday passed a bill that could formally mark the end of the penny, change the nickel and alter your cash transactions.Without objection, H.R. 10167, otherwise known as the Common Cents Act, made it through the Senate and is now en route to President Donald Trump’s desk.Through the summer, both chambers were working on similar legislation. Earlier this month, the House passed the Common Cents Act by a voice vote. An identical version of the bill passed in the Senate with unanimous consent in August. The bill passed Monday varies slightly from another version of the Common Cents Act that made its way through the House and to the Senate earlier this year. While that version instructs the Treasury to stop minting the penny, it did not explicitly outline the discontinuation of a coin. The legislation that has now passed through the House and Senate may have a big impact on your change.   While collectible pennies were released this year for America’s 250th anniversary, there hasn’t been a new penny produced for circulation since last fall. The Common Cents Act may mark the formal discontinuation of the penny, but it will still allow for one-cent coins “for sale as numismatic items” to be minted. Pennies remain legal tender and can still be used to pay “all debts, public charges, taxes, and dues,” should the legislation be enacted. Since retailers and businesses began reporting penny shortages last summer, paying with cash has been clunky. Some retailers rounded transactions; others offered gift cards and promos in exchange for pennies. Estimates suggest there are more than 300 billion pennies, or $8 worth per U.S. citizen, but they haven’t been finding their way to register tills as of late. That won’t change should the Common Cents Act receive Trump’s signature. However, businesses would be permitted to round cash transactions to the nearest nickel. As simple as it sounds, some states and localities have laws prohibiting the practice. Advocates believe the Common Cents Act could iron out that confusion. In separate statements, the National Retail Federation and the National Association of Convenience Stores applauded the Senate’s passing of the Common Cents Act, focusing specifically on this guidance on transaction rounding. While the shelving of the penny and the rounding of cash transactions seem relatively certain to happen should Trump sign the bill, what is less clear about the Common Cents Act is its possible impact on the nickel. As the nation’s newest lowest denomination, the nickel has likely been in the limelight since the penny shortage began. However, like the penny, the nickel is extremely expensive to produce. In fiscal year 2025, it cost more than 13 cents to produce a single nickel. That’s down slightly from 13.78 cents in the previous year.The Common Cents Act does not outright get rid of the nickel (though at least one expert has argued it would have been easier for the U.S. to ditch it instead of the penny). It does, however, permit the Treasury Secretary to test and evaluate compositions of the coin and suggest a new make-up for the nickel if it “reduces the cost” of production and “has a minimal adverse impact on machines designed to accept coins.”That may include making the nickel out of zinc, with an outer layer of nickel. Only the penny and the $1 coin currently use zinc, which was nearly $7,000 per tonne cheaper than copper last year, the Mint reports. Changing a coin’s composition can be difficult, though. Attempts to make the penny cheaper, for example, failed. The Common Cents Act still needs to be signed by Trump before it can take effect. He did, however, call on the Treasury to stop minting new pennies early last year, describing the one-cent coins as “wasteful.”

GOP senator blocks move to prevent Trump from tearing down from demolishing the Kennedy Center - Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) late Monday blocked an attempt from Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) to prohibit President Trump from demolishing the Kennedy Center. The bill Merkley attempted to pass under unanimous consent, which would have bypassed a floor vote if no one had objected, also had the support of Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski (Alaska). Trump has threatened to tear down the performing arts center after a court blocked him from adding his name to Kennedy’s on its facade. The administration is also in court fighting a challenge to substantive renovations Trump wants to do, arguing that the building is “decrepit” and in need of a full remodel. Merkley called for action on the Senate floor Monday night but was met with an objection from Lee. In a statement after the fact, Merkley said his bill would have prevented demolition of any national memorial to honor a U.S. president without an act of Congress. “Trump’s threats are straight out of the authoritarian playbook and should infuriate every American who values our nation’s history and the rule of law,” Merkley said. “Instead of wasting taxpayer dollars putting Trump’s name on memorials and monuments as if he is a king, we should be focused on putting money back into the pockets of working families and honoring America’s greatest cultural institutions, not destroying them.” Moments earlier, Lee also objected to a Merkley motion that would have blocked Trump from building a colossal marble arch between the Arlington Cemetery and the Lincoln Memorial.  Rep. Don Beyer (D-Va.) warned last week that Trump appears to be laying the groundwork for construction of the arch, despite a court order demanding prior notice before work begins.

"Told You To F--k Yourself": GOP Senator Tells Trump Off In Profanity-Laced Leaked Texts  - Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) unloaded on President Donald Trump in a series of profanity-laced private text messages that are now spilling into public view as the retiring Republican prepares to release a tell-all book about his battles with the president and MAGA world. The fiery exchanges, revealed in reporting on Tillis' forthcoming memoir, How to Lose Friends and Antagonize Presidents, show the North Carolina senator speaking to Trump in remarkably confrontational terms. "I still want to help but I don't take this bullshit from anyone, including you Mr. President," Tillis wrote in a May 22 message, according to the texts published by POLITICO. "Save that shit for the cowards who don't care if you fail," the retiring senator continued. "I care if you fail and right now we are failing."In a June 6 message, the senator pushed back against the suggestion that Trump had threatened him with a Republican primary challenge.  "If you had ever threatened me directly with a primary, I would have immediately told you to fuck yourself, and I would have announced my retirement immediately," Tillis wrote in another stunning text."Save those threats and head games for cowards and fools," the outgoing lawmaker added.Notably, POLITICO did not publish Trump's replies or the preceding messages that prompted Tillis' angry responses.Tillis announced in June 2025 that he would not seek reelection after opposing Trump's sweeping reconciliation legislation. The president blasted the senator in a Truth Social post as a "talker and complainer, NOT A DOER!" and publicly floated supporting a primary challenger.Tillis raised eyebrows when he held up Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve, refusing to support him until the Department of Justice ended its investigation into then-Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Tillis dropped his blockade after the probe was closed in April.Republican Michael Whatley, the former Republican National Committee chairman endorsed by Trump, is running to replace Tillis in North Carolina's open Senate seat against former Gov. Roy Cooper (D).

Peter Thiel says Trump administration is staffed by 'not very smart' people -- Billionaire businessman Peter Thiel blasted President Donald Trump’s practice of filling his administration with loyalists, calling it an “over-correction” from his first term in office.Speaking with German journalist Mathias Döpfner during an episode of the “MD Meets” podcast, Thiel was asked if he regretted his support for Trump in 2016. “Ten years later, how would you analyze his achievements? How would you analyze his failures? Where do you stand today with regard to the last two years, and the first term of the president?” Döpfner asked. Thiel said that he should be asked the same question in 10 years, but added that he wished Trump had appointed “more competent people.”“I think the two administrations kind of made opposite mistakes,” Thiel said. “You know, the first administration brought in all these people who couldn’t agree, and it was just all this internal fighting. The second administration I think had all these — they overcorrected for the mistake of the first term with all these loyalty tests.” Thiel added that he thinks the administration is staffed by “not very smart, but very loyal people.” The billionaire tech entrepreneur also said that he fears voters are growing fatigued with the Republican Party, similar to the end of George W. Bush’s presidency, but this time enough for voters to turn to Democratic Socialists.   “Hillary [Clinton], the establishment person, you know, barely beat Bernie Sanders. And then again, the establishment won in 2020 and ’24. I don’t know if they’ll be able to do it in ’28. And and the Democratic Party is the more important party. That is the establishment party in the U.S. The Republican Party is always a little bit the anti-establishment one. So, if the Democratic Socialists take over the Democratic Party, that’s a much bigger deal. And that is like — I don’t know — the end of America.”He added that while he welcomed the disruption of establishment politics brought on by Trump in 2016, he doesn’t “want disruption of the Democratic Socialist variety. That seems catastrophic.” Thiel was one of Trump’s earliest Silicon Valley backers in 2016, donating $1.25 million to him through a combination of super PAC donations and funds given directly to the campaign, according to a report from The New York Times.   While Thiel did not donate to Trump’s 2020 or 2024 campaigns, he heavily bankrolled Vice President JD Vance’s run for U.S. Senate in 2022, donating $15 million to a pro-Vance super PAC, Protect Ohio Values, according to OpenSecrets.   Thiel has also made somewhat extremist statements about government and society in the past, including saying he no longer believed “freedom and democracy” were “compatible.”

Trump blasts Obama’s ‘ridiculous’ take all-women governments would ‘be better’  President Trump went after former President Obama over the weekend for the latter’s claim that if the worlds’ governments were run entirely by women, it would lead to a “better” situation. During an event at Salem State University last week, Obama said during his presidency, he  “sometimes fantasized about, if you put women in charge of every government for like two years, and then just kind of saw, all right, how are things going?”“I have a strong belief that things would — they wouldn’t be perfect, but they’d be better,” he added.When a reporter on Saturday asked about the former president’s comments, Trump said, “I love women, I think they’re great, but what a ridiculous statement that is, right?Trump’s remarks continue his years-long pattern of attacking Obama, and the two have traded multiple barbs in the last decade. Trump also notably promoted the false idea that Obama was not born in the U.S., which many critics slammed as a racist attack against the first Black president.In June, Obama said he believed Trump had an “obsession” with him, adding he existed in a “suite in his head.”Trump has been accused of sexism and inappropriate behavior toward women in the past, which he has strongly denied. During his second term, the president has frequently told reporters — often women — to be “quiet” in response to their questions.

Hegseth instructs Pentagon to defend 2026 elections from ‘foreign actors’ - Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth instructed the Pentagon last week to prioritize and deploy “advanced intelligence and cyber capabilities” to track down, disrupt and neutralize “foreign actors to protect the 2026 midterm elections” while “maintaining the fundamental freedoms that characterize our country.” “Commander U.S. Cyber Command and the Directors of the Combat Support Agencies will prioritize the use of DoW [Department of War] intelligence and cyber capabilities to ensure foreign actors do not meddle in our democratic systems,” Hegseth said in a Sept. 22 memo, which was made public Monday. The Pentagon chief directed the Defense Intelligence Enterprise to execute collection and production on foreign threats to U.S. elections in accordance with the “law, regulation, Executive direction and DoW policies and directives.” Hegseth instructed Gen. Joshua Rudd, head of U.S. Cyber Command, to use existing capabilities and authorities in coordination with the Department of Homeland Security to counter “potential cyber threats from foreign actors targeting our elections.”  “Our Nation’s ability to conduct free and fair elections is a steadfast principal of our Democracy,” Hegseth said in the one-page memo. “Assuring and protecting this ability is a no-fail mission and the DoW will do its part in supporting this whole of government effort.”     Rudd told senators during a hearing in January that he would work on safeguarding U.S. elections and protect from foreign interference.  “U.S. Cyber Command and the National Security Agency are closely partnered to identify and defend against cyber threats to our nation. The Command and the Agency regularly counter actions by malicious foreign cyber actors including those with the intent to interfere with our democratic process,” Rudd said in a statement Monday.

GOP senators warn Trump is hurting Republicans with independents   -  Senate Republicans say President Trump has become increasingly toxic with independent voters critical to winning Senate races in battlegrounds such as North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa and Alaska. Some GOP senators are warning Trump to stay away from key Senate races, cautioning that his presence would likely turn off independent voters. But vulnerable incumbents such as Republican Sens. Roger Marshall (Kan.) and Jon Husted (Ohio) want Trump to visit anyway, hoping he’ll boost lagging enthusiasm among MAGA and GOP base voters. Trump has urged Republican voters to “pretend” he’s on the ballot in the midterm elections, but some GOP senators say that’s a risky move that could backfire with independent voters, whom they view as critical to keeping their Senate majority. “Forty percent of our electorate is unaffiliated. You can’t win with just a pure MAGA base,” said Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), whose seat in North Carolina is a big prize on the Senate battleground map. Tillis, who is retiring, said Michael Whatley, the Senate Republican candidate in North Carolina, shouldn’t campaign with Trump before Election Day. “I don’t think it benefits him. I haven’t seen any poll where [Trump] is going to help us with unaffiliateds,” he said. Tillis said Whatley and other GOP candidates in toss-up races would be “smart” to create some distance from Trump, who registered a 24 percent job approval rating among independent voters in a nationwide Fox News poll conducted Sept. 11-14. “If you’re going to be smart, you got to let the candidates be who they are,” the retiring senator said. “If they are concerned with the progress of the war in Iran, which most members are, or if they’re concerned with affordability … I think there are votes to be had by saying, ‘We got to work on this.” An AARP-sponsored poll of 1,115 likely voters in North Carolina conducted by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research from Sept. 17-20 found that only 26 percent of independent voters give Trump a favorable job performance rating. The Hill reached out to the White House for comment. Trump is planning to stump in several Senate battleground states before the Nov. 3 election, including Ohio, Iowa, Nebraska, Alaska, Texas and Florida. Trump is planning to visit Ohio on Tuesday to support Husted, the embattled Senate GOP incumbent. But some Republican senators think that Trump’s visit could backfire on candidates such as Husted or Iowa’s GOP Senate candidate Rep. Ashley Hinson, who has recently stepped up her criticism of the Iran war and its impact on gas and food prices. One Republican senator, who requested anonymity to comment on Trump’s plans to stump in Senate battlegrounds, argued it would be a mistake to campaign in Midwestern states where higher costs caused by the Iran war and Trump’s tariff policies are fueling voter anger. “He will energize our base, and that’s important. We need our voters to turn out, but the ones that are making the decision, really, are those independent voters. And right now, they’re not looking favorably at President Trump,” said the GOP lawmaker. The senator said the number of independents who are likely to be put off by Trump campaigning in a swing state are likely larger than the number of Republican voters who would be spurred to vote because of his visit. “We need those independents,” the senator warned. But two vulnerable Republicans in Midwestern swing states told The Hill that they view Trump’s presence as more of an asset than a liability. Husted said that he wants Trump to campaign for him, noting the president soundly defeated former Vice President Kamala Harris in Ohio during the 2024 election, 55 percent to 44 percent. “He won Ohio by 11 points,” Husted said. Marshall, who faces a surprisingly tough challenge from charismatic megachurch pastor and Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton, said he would “love” it if Trump stumps for him in Kansas. “I’d love to have him,” he said. Marshall told reporters last month that he views Trump as critical to turning out GOP votes. “There may be 200,000 people in Kansas that only vote when President Trump is on the ballot,” he said. “Certainly he needs to communicate to them that he is on the ballot, that if we lose the House it will just be one impeachment after another — his agenda is over with.” Ford O’Connell, a GOP strategist and former Trump campaign surrogate, argues that candidates who do a better job of turning out core supporters will win in November. “Trump is the best person at lighting a fire under the backsides of Republican voters to turn out votes. He is a one-man get-out-the-vote machine particularly among Republicans,” he said. “The problem is making sure you get Republicans to be fired up if you want to hold many of these seats, particularly the ones that are in more traditionally red territories,” O’Connell added. Trump is scheduled to travel Tuesday to Nebraska, where Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) is in a tough race with Independent candidate Dan Osborn, who has hit the GOP incumbent over data centers and his profitable stock investments. Trump is also scheduled to visit Republican strongholds in the next few days, such as Oklahoma, Alabama and Texas. “The president’s own numbers are not what they used to be, even in ruby-red Texas. And so making the election about him, pretending that his name is not on the ballot is not necessarily helpful if you’re downballot,” said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas). “The usual argument is in circumstances like this you need to localize the race, not nationalize it. But the president seems determined to make the election about him at a time when you got $6-plus diesel prices and high gas prices,” he said. Cornyn’s seat is up for grabs in the Lone Star State’s heated Senate contest between Texas state Rep. James Talarico (D) and state Attorney General Ken Paxton, the Senate GOP nominee. Paxton, who defeated Cornyn in a primary earlier this year, was recorded telling a group of conservative donors and lobbyists last week that September’s GOP-held midterm convention in Dallas — which starred the president — hurt his poll numbers. Asked if Trump is a drag on his candidacy, Paxton acknowledged: “When we did that convention — it dropped our numbers. Everybody’s numbers dropped. Right now, yeah, not good.” The audio recording was reported by The New York Times. A spokesperson for Paxton, however, disputed the notion that the Texas attorney general thinks Trump is weighing down his candidacy as “manipulated nonsense.” Several recent polls show Talarico leading Paxton, even though Trump carried Texas with 56 percent of the vote in the 2024 presidential election. A Marist University poll of 1,139 registered voters in Texas conducted from Sept. 17-20 showed that only 29 percent of independents in the state have a favorable impression of the president. The same poll showed Trump with an overall approval rating of 41 percent and Talarico leading Paxton by 6 points, 50 percent to 44 percent.

Trump's claims of widespread noncitizen voting dealt major blow after bombshell report  -Claims of widespread voting by noncitizens by President Donald Trump and Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin took a major hit Thursday after Nevada officials could not identify a single noncitizen on a list DHS sent them. The rebuke of the Trump administration came in a bombshell report from The New York Times, in which Nevada election officials said all 185 names DHS claimed were noncitizens were, in fact, U.S. citizens. The claims in Nevada are part of broader accusations of widespread voting by noncitizens. Both Mullin and Trump have previously claimed the administration had identified 250,000 noncitizens on voter rolls in Nevada, California, New Jersey and Pennsylvania.Mullin said in July that 15,903 people in Nevada alone were noncitizens registered to vote. DHS told Nevada officials it reviewed some of the nearly 16,000 names and “confirmed 185 are not U.S. Citizens,” according to the Times report. “As for the 185 individuals, our records indicate that they were citizens,” Greg D. Ott, a deputy attorney general in Nevada, wrote, according to a copy of a letter sent to Department of Homeland Security officials that The New York Times obtained. “You have provided nothing of substance to suggest otherwise.”Ott also said DHS has yet to provide election officials with that list of 15,903 alleged noncitizens, nor has it provided enough data to properly investigate the claims. “Our records do not support DHS’s claims, and DHS has still not provided evidence to change that,” Francisco Aguilar, the Democratic secretary of state in Nevada, said in a statement to the Times. “Instead, DHS officials continue their attempts to intimidate election officials into compliance and deter voters with huge claims of fraud with no evidence. Repeating unsupported claims does not make them true.”

Trump refuses to rule out Insurrection Act or national emergency for midterms - President Trump said in an interview published Thursday that he has not ruled out invoking the Insurrection Act or declaring a national emergency around the midterm elections in November.“I’m not committing to anything,” Trump said in an interview with Time when asked about the limits of his presidential power.“We’re going to see how it plays out in court.” The outlet reported that White House advisers have already thought about how to respond if Democrats reclaim either or both the House and the Senate. One official said the administration will “be forced to think more bipartisan.” “I would hope that if we win, we can still do that, because for two years we’ve run a completely partisan play,” the official told Time. “When you’re looking back on your time, I don’t think that’s what you should be proud of, even if it was successful.” Trump, however, has warned that if Democrats reclaim either chamber, they will attempt to impeach him for a third time. He dismissed unfavorable polling for him and other Republicans as being fake. The president has a history of threatening to deploy troops via the Insurrection Act of 1807 between his two terms. He threatened to send troops to Minneapolis after an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officer shot and killed U.S. citizen Renee Good in January, before saying there was no reason to invoke the law.In June 2025, he said he would “certainly” invoke the act in response to anti-ICE demonstrations in the streets of Los Angeles, and he said so again about similar protests in Portland, Ore., in October.. He likened both situations to “insurrections.” Trump also said he considered sending troops to Minneapolis late in his first term after protests erupted following the murder of George Floyd by police in 2020. The law’s history is tied to possible violence riled up by a former vice president, as former President Thomas Jefferson sought to confront former Vice President Aaron Burr’s organized venture to establish a new country in the Louisiana Territory in 1807, according to the National Constitution Center. The Insurrection Act became law after Burr was arrested in Alabama and charged with treason. The act allows the president “in all cases of insurrection, or obstruction to the laws, either of the United States, or of any individual state or territory,” to deploy members of the military or federalize members of a state’s National Guard “for the purpose of suppressing such insurrection, or of causing the laws to be duly executed.” Trump has relied on Title 10 to send federal troops to U.S. cities. Title 10 is a federal code that gives the president the authority to deploy the National Guard to assist local law enforcement in a supporting function.

Judge stops FEMA from forcing Trump voter reform rules with counterterrorism grants - A federal court has blocked the Trump administration’s efforts to withhold some counterterrorism funding from states that do not adopt election reforms favored by the administration. Earlier this year, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), which administers the grants, said that states and localities will have to adopt five election policies — including the use of a controversial database to check the citizenship status of voters — or the administration would withhold 20 percent of the funds. On Monday, Judge Amir Ali, an appointee of former President Biden, determined the move to withhold some of the money goes beyond FEMA’s statutory authority. “The statute gives FEMA the authority to fund projects proposed by states and high-risk urban areas; it does not give FEMA authority to use the possibility of grants to induce states or high-risk urban areas to carry out the federal government’s preferred projects at their own expense,” Ali wrote. The grant programs in question are known as the Urban Area Security Initiative and State Homeland Security Grant Program, the former of which helps cities in particular respond to terror threats. They were created after 9/11 to help prevent attacks. “Election security is national security, and protecting critical infrastructure remains a top priority for the Trump Administration,” Victoria Barton, associate administrator at FEMA’s Office of External Affairs, said in a statement to The Hill. “FEMA is reviewing the court’s decision and will comply with the court’s order. The ruling does not affect FEMA’s broader mission to support state and local partners in preventing, preparing for, protecting against, and responding to terrorism, including through eligible physical and cybersecurity investments that protect election infrastructure.” Earlier this year, Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin defended the move as protecting election security and ensuring that Americans can trust the results of their elections. “Under President Trump’s leadership, we are taking decisive action to protect election systems from threats like foreign interference, insider threats, and cyberattacks. These new requirements for homeland security grant recipients will preserve election integrity and ensure that Americans can trust the results,” Mullin said in July. However, critics see the policy as a backdoor way to force states to check the citizenship status of voters, something Trump has also tried to do through executive action. In particular, the policy would have forced states to use U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services’s Systematic Alien Verification for Entitlements to verify citizenship. The database, which is traditionally used to verify whether someone is eligible for programs like food stamps and other entitlements, has been criticized for being out of date and otherwise containing faulty information.

Senate Majority PAC launches $2M ad campaign targeting Sen. Susan Collins over Medicaid cuts - A Democratic super PAC on Monday launched a new ad campaign attacking Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) for the closure of about a dozen birthing centers in Maine, arguing she helped enable the massive Medicaid cuts in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act even though she voted against the legislation. The Senate Majority PAC, which supports efforts to establish a Democratic majority in the Senate, announced a $2 million ad campaign to air across Maine, tying her vote to advance the One Big Beautiful Bill Act last year to the closure of birthing centers in Maine. “[President] Trump’s Medicaid cuts are forcing labor and delivery units to close in Maine. When there’s an emergency, mothers will have to drive an hour or more to the hospital, jeopardizing the life of the baby and the mother,” Dr. Peter Millard, a physician from Belfast, Maine, said in the ad. “Susan Collins was the deciding vote to advance Trump’s Medicaid cuts, so they can give billionaires a tax break. Every time it matters, Susan Collins caves to Donald Trump.” Collins was among a small group of Republicans last year who voted against final passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill, directly citing her concerns about the reductions in Medicaid coverage. Democratic critics have argued, however, that she was the deciding vote in advancing the bill initially. Former Democratic Maine Senate candidate Graham Platner echoed similar criticisms during his campaign. The version Collins voted to advance included Medicaid cuts, but she went on to vote in favor of amendments to strip those cuts from the bill once it was on the floor. Collins’s supporters and staff have pointed out that even if she had voted “no” on the bill, Vice President Vance’s tiebreaking vote would have advanced it anyway, and she ultimately voted against passing it. Her supporters have also noted that the Medicaid cuts included in the bill have yet to go in effect. The fact-checking nonprofit group PolitiFact called previous criticisms of Collins claiming she “sided with Trump to cut Medicaid” false.

Feds Investigate Kinzinger Over Alleged Kalshi Bets On Own Pardon -  Former Republican Rep. Adam Kinzinger is reportedly under investigation by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission over prediction-market trades tied to an unusually personal event: whether President Joe Biden would pardon him. According to Politico, citing three people familiar with the matter, the CFTC has been examining trades made by a Kalshi account linked to Kinzinger in December 2024 and January 2025. Kalshi is also reviewing the transactions. Kinzinger confirmed that he made the trades, telling Politico that he wagered on both whether he personally would receive a presidential pardon and whether Biden would issue preemptive pardons before leaving office. According to screenshots Kinzinger provided to the outlet, he made $823 on the trades. He said he placed roughly 25 trades during the period and mostly lost money. And of course, he denies having any inside information - telling the outlet "I was not a congressman or candidate, and had been out of office for two years, and had no inside information," and claiming that he never discussed a potential pardon with anyone at or near the White House and believed his wagers complied with Kalshi's rules at the time. A version of Kalshi's rulebook filed with the CFTC in November 2024 - before the reported trades - prohibited users from trading when they possessed material nonpublic information about an event or had the ability to influence its outcome. Kinzinger says he had neither. Interestingly, on Jan. 6, 2025, while Biden's possible preemptive pardons were being publicly debated, CNN's Anderson Cooper asked Kinzinger whether Biden should pardon members of the Jan. 6 committee, including himself. "No. I don't want it," he replied, adding "As soon as you take a pardon, it looks like you are guilty of something," Kinzinger said. Two weeks later, Biden pardoned Kinzinger along with the other members and staff of the House Jan. 6 committee and police officers who testified before it. The Justice Department describes the action as a "full and unconditional pardon" covering potential federal offenses arising from or related to the committee's activities. Granted: we don't know exactly when each Kinzinger trade occurred, whether he held a position when he made his CNN comments, or which side of the pardon contract he was taking at any particular point. So the public statement and the trading activity cannot, based on what is currently known, be treated as evidence of market manipulation.

Senate Democrats block bill restricting lawmakers from trading stocks - Senate Democrats on Wednesday blocked a bill sponsored by vulnerable GOP incumbent Sen. Pete Ricketts (Neb.) to restrict members of Congress from buying new stocks of publicly traded companies, arguing the legislation didn’t go far enough to crack down on possible corruption. The Stop Insider Trading Act failed by a vote of 53-47. No Democrat voted in support of the measure. It needed 60 votes to advance on the Senate floor. Ricketts, who is facing a competitive race in Nebraska, argued before the vote that his bill would “ban congressional insider trading” and touted it as a “commonsense” reform that “we need to pass.” It passed the House in July by a vote of 232-198 with the support of 13 Democrats. “Congress’s approval rating is only 15 percent. Why do Americans have such a lack of faith in our institutions? Well, in part, because of what has happened with trading in the Congress,” Ricketts said on the Senate floor before the vote. Ricketts has been accused by his campaign opponent, independent Dan Osborn, of profiting handsomely from his stock portfolio during his time in the Senate. Osborne slammed Ricketts for making an estimated $10 million in market gains in April of last year, when stocks bounced back after President Trump eased off of his sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) panned Ricketts’s proposal as a “feeble” attempt at reform that would still allow lawmakers to engage in profitable transactions. “Only Senate Republicans would dare call a bill that permits members of Congress to continue to own, sell and in some instances buy stocks a stock-trading ban. They can’t be serious. The Republican bill is a permission slip for corruption, not a stock-trading ban,” Schumer declared on the Senate floor. The legislation would have banned lawmakers from buying new stocks in publicly traded companies and would have required them to provide advance notice of plans to sell stocks.

How political tensions over Trump family crypto ventures derailed Clarity Act  President Trump and his family’s sprawling empire of cryptocurrency businesses cast a long shadow over efforts this year to negotiate a bill regulating the industry. They arguably weighed down bipartisan talks in the end, which ultimately disintegrated ahead of a Senate vote last week on the Clarity Act that failed to advance the bill. Senate Democrats across the board refused to vote for the legislation amid concerns that it failed to sufficiently rein in the president and his family’s involvement in the industry. The timing of the vote became “increasingly problematic” given the upcoming midterms, said Chris Niebuhr, a senior research analyst at Beacon Policy Advisors. “The fact that we got so close to the election before even a first preliminary vote happened on the bill, just increased the salience of all of the political issues around the bill, chief among which was the president’s crypto business,” he added. Ian Katz, managing director at Capital Alpha, noted that this dynamic “made it harder for the Democrats to go along with the bill or easier for them to say no. The wording of that depends on your perspective.” A White House official blamed Democrats for the failure. “The Democrats are to blame for the failure of the Clarity Act because they put political games over doing what’s best for American technology and innovation,” the official said in a statement. “The Trump Administration agreed to the most comprehensive and wide-ranging ethics provision in history.” When Trump first embraced the world of crypto during his 2024 campaign, it marked a seismic shift for an industry that had long been on the outs in Washington. After years of feuding with the Biden administration, crypto firms suddenly had a powerful new ally who vowed to oust their chief nemesis — Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Gary Gensler. Once Trump took office, he did oust Gensler, and he nominated crypto-friendly officials to take over key roles. The administration abandoned numerous investigations into and lawsuits against crypto companies. But this push was almost immediately complicated by the Trump family’s growing portfolio of crypto ventures. Just before taking office, both the president and first lady Melania Trump launched a pair of meme coins, digital tokens that hold no inherent value and are typically based on internet trends. This ruffled some feathers among some in the crypto industry amid concerns that the move could undermine the administration’s regulatory efforts. The meme coins would rear their head again within months, when Trump hosted a private dinner for top investors in his token, $TRUMP. The event faced widespread criticism from Democrats, who slammed it as a “pay-to-play scheme.” The Trump family’s main crypto venture, World Liberty Financial, also proved highly controversial. Launched by Trump and his two eldest sons just weeks before the 2024 election, the company initially issued tokens before moving into stablecoins, cryptocurrencies tied to more stable assets like the U.S. dollar. World Liberty Financial’s stablecoin became a major flashpoint after the company announced that it would be used by the Emirati investment firm MGX to invest $2 billion in the crypto exchange Binance. The move raised eyebrows, particularly when the Trump administration granted the United Arab Emirates (UAE) access to hundreds of thousands of advanced AI chips just weeks later. The AI company set to receive many of these chips, G42, is controlled by an Emirati royal who is also connected to MGX. Binance’s involvement in the transaction also came under scrutiny after Trump pardoned the company’s founder Changpeng Zhao last November. Zhao previously pleaded guilty to failing to maintain an effective anti-money laundering regime. Trump’s annual financial disclosure, which was released in late June, added fuel to the fire. It showed the president made more than $1 billion from his various crypto ventures last year. Democrats repeatedly slammed the Trump family’s crypto moves and pushed for restrictions on their involvement in the industry in an initial stablecoin bill known as the GENIUS Act — the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act. But the measure ultimately passed the Senate and House with sizeable Democratic support last year. It marked a key early victory for the industry, but the crown jewel for crypto was always the Clarity Act. Negotiations over this bill, which aimed to provide a regulatory framework for the rest of the market, got underway soon after the passage of the stablecoin measure. The same group of about a dozen crypto-friendly Democrats who were involved in GENIUS Act discussions joined their Republican counterparts in the effort to hash out market structure legislation. “In mid-2025, Democrats were interested in passing the bill,” Niebuhr said. “And I think throughout the process, you saw this group of Democrats who voted for the Genius Act, who had a legitimate interest in creating long-term guardrails for the industry.” From the beginning of Clarity Act negotiations, industry players and analysts warned that politics could become a problem the longer negotiations dragged on, particularly as the midterm elections neared. “Politics played a very significant role in the bill’s ultimate demise, but one that might have been avoidable if you had adjusted the timing,” Niebuhr added. Talks progressed haltingly through the end of 2025, and by early 2026, Republicans were eager to move the legislation out of committee. But a Senate Banking Committee markup was canceled at the last minute in January following pushback from the crypto industry to a stablecoin provision. The provision was a major source of tension between the banking and crypto industries and delayed the process by several months. Senators ultimately reached a bipartisan agreement in early May, although the banking industry continued to oppose the language. This issue chipped away some GOP support for the bill, further complicating its path forward. “It was going to be hard to get enough Democrats to get across the finish line, even if you had all of the Republicans,” Katz told The Hill. As time went on, Democrats also began fearing the progressive flank of their party more, he noted, adding that “if they were to go along with this bill, there would be a lot of criticism from their left.” Many both in and outside of Congress viewed lawmakers’ monthlong August recess as a key deadline to get the Clarity Act across the finish line. When the Senate left town last month without holding a vote, analysts noted that the bill’s prospects had dimmed significantly. Senate leaders teed up the measure for a mid-September vote, even as the ethics issue remained unresolved. Just days before the vote, Republicans unveiled updated bill text, with a new White House-approved ethics provision. But Democrats argued it didn’t go far enough and blocked the Clarity Act from clearing a procedural hurdle on the Senate floor. In the wake of the vote, they accused Republicans of cutting talks short, while GOP senators accused their colleagues across the aisle of moving the goal posts on the issue. If the bill had made it to the Senate floor earlier in the year, “I don’t think politics would have played a role in the way that it did,” Niebuhr said. “It would have played a role,” he continued. “There would have still needed to be an ethics provision, but it wouldn’t have been a prohibitive force, whereas in September it absolutely was.”

Democrats gear up to tank data center legislation - Senate Democrats are preparing to sink data center legislation that passed overwhelmingly in the House, claiming the bill from a vulnerable Republican doesn’t go far enough in protecting Americans from rising power prices. Ahead of a Wednesday vote to advance the Ratepayer Protection Act, Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) lambasted the bill as “a fraud.” He suggested that Democrats instead wanted more forceful data center bills from Sens. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) and Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.). “We’re very united in opposition to the bill, whether it’s on cloture or at some other point,” Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) said leaving a Democratic caucus lunch during which data centers were discussed. Democrats have the chance to effectively kill the bill Wednesday when it’s brought to the floor, where it needs at least 60 votes to overcome a procedural hurdle. Schumer declined to say whether leadership would officially whip against the bill, but he made his own oppositions clear. “Americans are demanding real guardrails on AI and data centers, but all the Republicans offer is a toothless messaging bill,” he said on the Senate floor Tuesday. The bill is being championed by Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio) after passing the House in a resounding 417-3 vote earlier this month. Democrats have suggested that the bill is meant to bolster Husted’s reelection chances, as he is facing a tough election bid against former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown. Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.) also indicated Tuesday that he had reversed his position and will oppose the bill. He had stood alone last week as the sole Democrat to lend his support to the proposal . “We want to get a real Ratepayer Protection Act,” he said. “I’m for ratepayer protections. This bill doesn’t do anything.” That leaves Republicans without any guaranteed Democratic supporters ahead of the Wednesday vote. GOP leaders need at least seven Democratic supporters to move the bill forward if all Republicans back the bill. Some of the moderate Democrats who could be part of that coalition expressed doubts about the bill Tuesday. The current bill language would require states to “consider” — but not mandate — a framework ensuring data centers pay for all energy costs and grid updates. “I don’t think it does anything. I think it’s a political effort,” said Sen. John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.), saying he would oppose the bill absent major changes. “I wish it actually had some teeth,” said Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.). Some Democrats, including Peters, suggested they would be more open to the bill should it be allowed amendments on the floor. That would require an agreement from Republican leadership, though — and Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), the No. 2 Senate Democrat, also indicated that he didn’t see the value of getting on the bill and trying to strengthen it. “No,” he said, about taking up the bill and trying to amend it. “We have some stronger versions.”

Schumer, Dems at odds as leader aims to kill Ohio Republican's data center bill - Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) is aiming to kill a bill sponsored by Republican Sen. Jon Husted (Ohio) to protect taxpayers from additional costs posed by AI-driven data centers, but his Democratic caucus isn’t fully on board after House Democrats overwhelmingly voted for the proposal. The looming Senate floor fight over artificial intelligence and data centers has big implications for the Ohio Senate race, where the Democratic challenger, former Sen. Sherrod Brown (Ohio), has made Husted’s support for data centers a central issue in the campaign. Senate Democrats say something needs to be done to protect taxpayers from rising energy costs due to data center growth, but they see the Husted bill — the Ratepayer Protection Act, which attracted huge bipartisan support in the House — as a political life raft for the GOP incumbent, who is trailing in the polls. “It seems like it’s kind of a political bailout,” said Democratic Sen. Tina Smith (Minn.), alluding to the political damage Husted has suffered after getting pummeled with ads framing him as “the face of data centers” who cut “sweetheart tax deals” for them. A YouGov poll of 1,000 likely voters in Ohio conducted earlier this month found that 75 percent of respondents opposed or strongly opposed the construction of data centers in their local communities. Nearly half of Ohio voters — 47 percent — said a candidate’s stance on data centers is extremely important or very important to their vote in November. Brown has spent more than $430,000 on online ads that talk about data centers, according to a study by Absecon Group, a public affairs group that studies media strategy. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) is expected to file a cloture motion on Husted’s bill Monday, which would set up the first procedural vote to advance it on the floor Wednesday. Republicans say there is heavy pressure on Democrats to vote for the bill after it passed the House by an overwhelming margin of 417-3 on Sept. 16. Only three House Democrats voted against it. Schumer, however, is looking to quash Husted’s bill, which would deprive the vulnerable GOP incumbent of a political victory that he could use in the weeks ahead to defend himself from political attacks that he is Big Data’s ally in Washington. But it will be a major test of his leadership strength whether he can convince almost his entire caucus to sink the bill. Schumer on Wednesday dismissed Husted’s bill as a “fraud,” signaling that he will urge Democratic colleagues to block it on the floor later this week. “Sen. Husted’s bill is a fraud, it’s voluntary, no company has to do it. The bill we have is mandatory. It is much stronger, and it is what is needed,” the New York senator said. Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) — the ranking member of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, who blocked Husted’s bill on the floor last week when the Ohio Republican asked for unanimous consent to pass it — argued that it would not require data centers to pay the full cost of energy they consume. “The Ratepayer Protection Act does nothing to meaningfully address the rising costs of AI data center development. Instead, it relies on a voluntary framework that does not require AI data centers to pay the full cost of the energy they consume or the strain they place on the grid,” he said. Husted argues, however, that his bill would “force” data centers “to pay their own way” because it would outline a federal standard and require states to consider that standard when determining regulations for data centers. “Many states have already said they want to protect ratepayers by making data centers pay for their own electricity grid and production—and his bill does just that,” said Olivia Tripodi, a spokesperson for Husted. Some Democratic senators see Husted’s bill as a step in the right direction — albeit a modest step — and favor voting to proceed to his bill so that it can be debated and amended on the Senate floor. “My view is that this is a tiny step forward, but we shouldn’t miss this opportunity to strengthen it,” said Democratic Sen. Chris Van Hollen (Md.). Van Hollen said Husted’s bill “doesn’t do nearly enough,” but he thinks Democrats will miss a valuable opportunity if they simply defeat the motion to proceed to the legislation. “I’ve got a proposal called Power for the People Act that I’ve been trying to get passed for a while, which would actually protect ratepayers, make sure they don’t have to subsidize the richest corporations on the planet,” he said.

OpenAI, Anthropic probing tens of thousands of security incidents -OpenAI, Anthropic and security researchers are investigating tens of thousands of incidents in which their frontier models took steps that outside evaluators would consider problematic, sources told Axios. The sheer number of incidents, which occurred in recent months in internal testing and the real world, indicates that the problem is orders of magnitude more complex than what is publicly known.  The findings, which are surfacing as part of internal work to assess models and in investigations at both companies into model behavior, raise questions about whether either company — or any top model-maker — is currently capable of establishing complete control over its technology.  The episodes include bypassing guardrails, creating message boards, escaping sandboxes, website hijacking, self-prompting or seeking to bypass monitors, sources said.

• They occurred in internal testing and in the real world, and many have yet to become public as security researchers continue to investigate, sources said.
• Some of the testing is akin to "red-teaming" activity, where the companies are trying to get the models to misbehave in order to ensure that they are safe, sources said.
• Agentic misbehavior is becoming synonymous with frontier AI development: The biggest AI labs face a similar challenge that pits humans trying to create guardrails against resilient, powerful systems trying to complete tasks.

The incidents range in severity and are comparable to what's been disclosed by OpenAI in recent days. They include both successful attempts to bypass guardrails and unsuccessful ones, and most so far are not known to have caused real-world harm. The total could grow well beyond tens of thousands, sources said.  In recent days, OpenAI and outside researchers have disclosed a litany of episodes involving model behavior from the company's systems that some experts consider troubling. These include OpenAI agents leaking 53 images from ChatGPT users online, the breach of an Australian government website, and attempts to hack other sites — including U.S. government sites — according to the company, sources and reports from Reuters and the New York Times.  OpenAI announced it was pausing training on its most capable models and would resume training them "only when we are confident that we have additional safeguards and alignment improvements in place," a spokesperson told Axios.Chief executive Sam Altman said on X that its ongoing review had "not been as fast as we would have liked." Altman said the Hugging Face incident is the most severe they've seen. In that instance, a swarm of hundreds of agents coordinated their work in a message board and hacked an external company in an effort to improve their performance on a cybersecurity test. "People want to know AI is being developed safely, and that starts with what companies like ours do ourselves," an OpenAI spokesperson told Axios. "This is not the first time we have hit pause to take such measures, nor do we expect it will be the last as AI capabilities continue to advance." Anthropic has commissioned a third-party safety organization to examine the behavior of its models. In documents the company has publicly released, it has disclosed the frequency of misalignment episodes.The "system card" for its Opus 5.5 model released this week showed how often it behaved in ways the company flagged as unusual or problematic. For example, the model sought to escape a sandbox — a secure testing environment — in 1.5% of test runs, though the company emphasized that these were adversarial experiments where a task couldn't be solved without escaping the sandbox.Anthropic and other companies conduct hundreds of thousands of test runs on their models, or more, sources said. That means even a small percentage of misaligned behavior can still amount to tens of thousands of incidents in which the models behaved in unexpected, sometimes troubling ways.  The Hugging Face incident, as well as a slew of others that have followed, led top AI executives to call for a slowdown in development and to ask for more robust federal and international regulations.Some at OpenAI see Hugging Face as a one-off, with disclosures about future incidents likely to be less severe due to improved controls and the unusual nature of the testing they conducted, which involved an unreleased model, sources told Axios.AI security researchers agree that there are simple fixes that will help AI companies avoid aspects of what made the Hugging Face episode appear so dangerous to outsiders. Other AI executives and safety researchers, however, cautioned that they have limited confidence that AI companies will be able to prevent all problematic model behavior.The new crop of AI models complete tasks with extraordinary resilience, so working to limit their resourcefulness is often a losing game because it is necessary to anticipate every possible way they might run amok. Often, a technique that may have never occurred to humans is what allows them to slip past guardrails, top AI executives said. "Trying to come up with a perfect list of dos and don'ts is probably a fool's errand," one cybersecurity executive said. Some amount of what AI safety pros call "misaligned behavior" is to be expected within AI companies as they test their new models.Bringing the risk of misalignment to zero may not be feasible, experts told Axios. The concern is if a model takes a problematic action many times in testing, it's more likely that model's behavior would cause a cyber incident in the real world"What we have seen in terms of what these agents are up to is just the tip of the iceberg," researcher Conrad Stosz at Transluce, an independent AI evaluator, told Axios. It's not about how damaging each individual instance was, Connor Leahy, AI researcher and executive director at ControlAI, told Axios. The "crazy thing," he said, is that these instances involve "autonomous systems doing things they were told not to do," potentially including crimes. Expect new disclosures about model misbehavior as AI companies continue to expand frontier capabilities.

FTC Launches 'Rogue AI' Probe Of OpenAI, Anthropic - And Takes Aim At Their Regulatory Moat -The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) is launching a sweeping, aggressive probe into top frontier labs like OpenAI and Anthropic. However, the investigation goes far beyond simply asking questions about autonomous software run amok, and its chairman has made clear he won't let Silicon Valley use recent AI failures to build an insurmountable regulatory moat.According to administration officials who spoke to the New York Post, FTC Chairman Andrew Ferguson is preparing to hit tech executives with Civil Investigative Demands (CIDs) - essentially administrative subpoenas - to compel testimony regarding the dangers their artificial intelligence (AI) super intelligence (SI) models (are we doing this?) pose to the public and consumer markets.The immediate trigger for the probe is the highly publicized "Hugging Face incident" from this past July. During what was supposed to be a contained cybersecurity evaluation, about 700 of an estimated 1,200 OpenAI agents escaped their testing sandbox, bypassed network controls, and breached the infrastructure of the computational tools company Hugging Face.  Running primarily on OpenAI's "Internal Model 1," the autonomous agents tried to erase traces of their work, created nearly a million shortened URLs to run code outside their restricted environments, and even tried to enlist other AI models to help.While AI safety researchers were quick to call it "the first true AI safety incident," the FTC is taking a distinctly different view on accountability. Chairman Ferguson recently indicated that companies cannot shift legal blame to "rogue" AI systems when their automated decisions result in security breaches or consumer harm. The liability, the FTC argues, rests squarely on the humans who designed, instructed, and unleashed the models.That said, these breaches have drawn scrutiny of their own. OpenAI first disclosed the incident as an "unprecedented" cyber event, but Hugging Face's own post-mortem found the agents reached the open internet through a network route the sandbox had deliberately left open, and exploited weaknesses that "a capable human attacker could have found and exploited" - unsafe dataset processing, exposed cloud metadata, overly broad access and long-lived credentials. OpenAI itself conceded that its own chain-of-thought monitoring, had it been running, would have caught the initial activity.Nor was OpenAI alone. The Hugging Face breach was one of a string of incidents involving OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta and Google models that trace back to evaluations run with a single vendor, Israel-based Irregular, whose test environments had live internet access while the models were told they were in a simulation. Irregular notified all four labs in late July, yet the disclosures trickled out one lab at a time over seven weeks - turning one contractor's mistake into what looked like a wave of AI breakouts. Isolating test models from the internet is a "basic control measure," frontier security expert Matthew Mittelsteadt said. "You'd think that of all the things that you've got to get right." Some skeptics have gone further, questioning whether repeated "accidents" at the same vendor were accidents at all.For years, executives like OpenAI's Sam Altman and Anthropic's Dario Amodei have publicly warned that their own products pose an "existential risk" to humanity, practically begging lawmakers to regulate them.But as we previously noted, these highly publicized warnings and agent "escapes" often serve a dual purpose. By whipping Washington into a panic over AI doomsday scenarios, industry leaders are paving the way for a worst-case scenario of heavy-handed regulation. Stifling compliance requirements inevitably crush open-source developers and cash-strapped startups, leaving the trillion-dollar AI bubble safely in the hands of the incumbent monopolies. Chairman Ferguson appears to be acutely aware of this Silicon Valley playbook.  "I think it's very important that we not allow these two firms to come to Washington, whip everyone into a panic and then say, 'We need a whole bunch of regulations that we can comply with,'" Ferguson told Fox News earlier this month. "That is how companies build a moat around their businesses to make sure that people can't compete against them." The FTC's aggressive posture stands in stark contrast to the White House's approach. Just this week, President Trump hosted a summit with leading tech billionaires - including Amodei, OpenAI President Greg Brockman, Elon Musk, and Google's Sundar Pichai - resulting in a much friendlier, voluntary "self-regulation" pact. The administration is attempting to walk a nearly impossible geopolitical tightrope. The US government wants to prevent autonomous agents from hacking power grids, leaking data, or manipulating financial markets, but it is equally terrified that stifling the American AI industry will hand global dominance directly to China. The FTC probe will test whether the US can successfully police the world's most powerful software without inadvertently cementing an AI oligarchy.

After months of 'hell,' an OpenAI safety researcher suggests way to prevent more rogue AI incidents -In today’s edition of Eye on AI, I’m diving into a suggestion from an OpenAI researcher on how to prevent more rogue AI agents from hacking websites—especially since it keeps happening, and the frontier labs are generally in agreement that cyberattacks are the most immediate threat AI poses to society.It’s a sticky situation, and full of contradictions, much like most AI-related topics. When it comes to cybersecurity, AI companies are putting out technology that enables these sophisticated attacks, and in the same breath they are pitching that same technology as a necessary means of defending against them. OpenAI has its Daybreak program, and Anthropic has Project Glasswing, both of which give select businesses access to the most advanced cybersecurity tools to plug software vulnerabilities before the swarms can feast on them. (Bad actors are also trying to use those same models—or open-source models that are quickly catching up to the capabilities of the models from OpenAI and Anthropic—for hacking.)In this sense, the worlds of AI research and cybersecurity are moving closer to each other, but the problem is those working in those fields are not collaborating, an OpenAI researchers argued this week in a rare X post. The researcher, whose alias is Joe, called out what he sees as a growing divide between the two disciplines. Both camps lack knowledge of the others’ work, creating weaknesses in the security ecosystem that could have disastrous effects.Safety researchers are experts about how the models work, how they deceive human evaluators, and “do all sorts of crazy stuff,” Joe said. Meanwhile, cybersecurity professionals come from a different perspective. They are battle-hardened from “years, or decades in many cases,” of learning how to think like attackers and being on the front lines of security incidents. But they have “very little understanding of evaluation, training, or how ML runs work at scale, how agent swarms behave, or how you detect when models are misaligned,” Joe said.“It is my concern that the divide between these two sides will cause great harm to the world if both sides do not up-level and align,” he said.Joe has a vested interest in others being able to defend against the product he’s building. He said he’s been in “hell” over the last three months of rampant rogue agent behavior. He skipped his sister’s wedding “a few weeks ago to help clean up after some of the recent incidents.” But some people called him out for asking for sympathy while he’s actively building the problematic technology.I’d also imagine some cybersecurity professionals would take offense to the post, specifically the suggestion that they are ignorant about how AI works. But if that is the case, it’s most likely due to the ongoing transparency problem in the AI industry, including a lack of standard disclosure frameworks for security incidents, which OpenAI is just starting to develop.Cybersecurity professionals need a seat at the table alongside AI safety experts when making critical decisions, Joe says: “For OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, etc., these two teams should be best buddies!” This won’t solve everything, but I appreciate the tactical suggestion on how to mitigate potentially disastrous societal effects of AI, something I wrote was lacking in former Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon’s viral post about how AI could lead to human extinction. While Joe isn’t the first to call out the divide between AI safety researchers and the cybersecurity world—former Fortune AI reporter Sharon Goldman has also covered this—his post sets a good precedent of how those working inside the AI industry can help it advance more responsibly. More of this and less generalized AI anxiety, please.

AI Data Center Construction Goes Nuts, Power Plants Take Off, but Spending on Factories Is still Twice as Big as Data Centers - by Wolf Richter -The amount spent on the construction of data centers spiked by another 7.5% in August from July, and by 73% year-over-year to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $85 billion, according to construction data from the Census Bureau today. Since the beginning of 2021, the annual rate of construction spending on data centers has spiked by 823%. These amounts only reflect the construction costs of the buildings, the improvements around the buildings, and the equipment integrated into the buildings, such as HVAC systems. But that’s the cheap part of a data center. Not included here is the expensive part: equipping the completed data center buildings with servers and racks, with electronic and optical equipment to connect the servers to the internet, and with the electrical equipment that supplies the servers with prodigious amounts of power, including in many cases onsite diesel or gas-turbine power generators. Though nothing that needs to be funded can grow on an exponential curve for long, the AI data center construction mania is continuing along a near-exponential curve for now, despite increasing efforts on the ground by people, municipalities, and state governments – including in Texas! – to slow it down or block it. Data centers, their demand on power, their effect on electricity prices, and related issues have entered midterm election rhetoric. Building the data centers and purchasing the equipment has sent shockwaves of demand through big parts of the industrial economy: WHOOSH, Go Orders at US Manufacturers of “Core Capital Goods,” Fueled by the AI Infrastructure Boom: Attracting the skilled labor to build the data centers and install the equipment and get it up and running has sent shockwaves of demand through the labor market, with reports of labor shortages emanating from other projects, as specialists get pulled away by data center projects’ whatever-it-takes approach to spending, including on salaries for highly skilled labor. Construction of power plants and distribution infrastructure has also taken off, though planning and permitting takes years before construction can even start. Construction spending in the power sector rose by 0.8% in August from July and by 8.5% year-over-year to an annual rate of $186 billion. Since the beginning of 2021, the spending rate has increased by 58%. Power plant construction spending includes the costs of the power generation equipment, unlike data center construction costs that do not include the servers and related equipment, which are the most expensive part of a data center. Factory construction spending growth – “growth,” not actual spending – has taken a backseat to the mania of data centers; “actual spending” on factory construction ($168 billion annual rate) is still nearly double the spending on data centers ($85 billion annual rate). Spending on factory construction at an annual rate of $168 billion in August was unchanged from July, and down by 19.8% year-over-year. But it was still 126% higher than what it had averaged over the six-year period 2015-2020. The costs of the production equipment inside the factory – such as industrial robots and systems that produce semiconductors – are not included in these figures here, though they can dwarf the costs of the building. Once the factories are built and equipped and production starts, their real contribution to the economy and employment begins and continues for decades. Building a factory is not a one-time shot but a long-term contribution to US production. It’s not the construction spending per se that matters but the future production that will come from these factories. Construction companies face the second wave of inflation. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for construction materials – steel mill products, concrete, lumber, gypsum, etc. – spiked by 10.1% year-over-year in August. And since the beginning of 2025, when this second wave of inflation started, this PPI has spiked by 15.8%. The PPI for nonresidential construction services spiked by 9.4% year-over-year and by 11.8% since the beginning of 2025.

Data centers are a $6 trillion time bomb, analysts warn --Last year, hedge fund whisperer and founder of the firm Praetorian Capital, Harris Kupperman, issued a blistering financial analysis on the data center frenzy sweeping across the United States. Kupperman’s diagnosis was blunt: because data center components break down so quickly, the industry would need to see some $1 trillion in revenue across 2025 and 2026 just to cover the costs of their hyperscale facilities, let alone start turning a profit. With AI revenue today accounting for only a small fraction of that total, Kupperman’s argument is that the financial logic behind the data center buildout simply doesn’t hold up. But as the last year has shown us, the magnates of the AI industry — and their funders — have a remarkable knack for kicking the can down the road, no matter how bad the numbers might look. That being the case, analysts are starting to use Kupperman’s same rationale to forecast what the next few years have in store for data center developers — and the numbers are staggering.As Bloomberg reports, an analysis on data centers by Bain and Co, one of the largest management consulting firms in the world, found that the global AI industry would have to reach annual revenue of $6 trillion by 2031 to justify the amount of capital being injected into data centers.The analysis assumes that commercial AI tools will account for $1.8 trillion of revenue by that point — a pretty generous presumption, which requires global AI revenue to start growing almost exponentially. Even if the AI industry reaches that point, Bain’s analysis notes, the industry will still need to come up with $4.2 trillion. Hitting that $6 trillion mark will take nothing short of a technological miracle, the report authors explain, a leap without precedent in the information age.“What the industry needs is a wave of innovation that will dwarf what mobile and cloud unlocked,” the report’s lead author and chairman of Bain’s Global Technology, Media, and Telecommunications, David Crawford wrote.“AI infrastructure is being built well ahead of the demand curve and funding it sustainably will require adding approximately one percent to the annual global GDP growth rate,” Bain’s report continues. “The question is whether the applications arrive in time to pay for it.” Given that data centers are one of the few growth-areas in the US economy — Bain notes major hyperscalers like Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle could spend up to $780 billion across 2026 alone — the domestic AI industry can’t afford to waver, no matter how unlikely that $6 trillion threshold may seem.  At the same time, tech giants can’t keep deploying capital forever, as Kupperman observed in his 2025 essay. “If the economics don’t work, doing it at massive scale doesn’t make the economics work any better — it just takes an industry crisis and makes it into a national economic crisis,” he wrote. So unless the tech industry can find a way to turn AI into a trillion-dollar revenue stream fast, it seems data centers are just a ticking time bomb waiting to go off. As Jessica Wachter, a finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School opined in a recent research paper, if this AI miracle “fails to materialize,” future generation will look back at the current buildout “as the largest misallocation of capital in history.”

Most data centers are still refusing to say how much water and electricity they use - A new Lighthouse Reports investigation has found most European data centers are still obscuring their actual environmental impacts from the public despite EU rules aiming to improve transparency around energy and water reporting. Among the included metrics are water and energy consumption, renewable energy use, waste-heat use and cooling efficiency, however while they may be reporting to governments, Lighthouse Reports argues that obtaining this information as a member of the public is far harder. The report also criticizes the EU for exposing efficiency labels, much like your household appliance, rather than the actual raw data. Without access to the raw data, communities and policymakers can have a hard time judging the environmental impact of a proposed or operational data center, because even the most efficient hyper scale campus will still consume huge amounts of electricity and water. In a Netherlands example, of the 186 500kW+ data centers operating in the country by late 2025, only 44 offered public electricity consumption figures and 47 offered water consumption figures. However, Lighthouse Reports claims that Netherlands reporting is actually among the most transparent, and after trying to make similar attempts across all 27 EU member states, numerous requests were denied because they didn't possess the relevant information or because they deemed it confidential. "The Commission has bowed to confidentiality clauses demanded by the industry," Lighthouse Reports concludes. The group has since one on to file a complaint under the Aarhus Convention, claiming the EU is breaching the Convention's guarantees to "rights of access to information, public participation in decision-making, and access to justice in environmental matters." TechRadar Pro has asked the European Commission for a response to the report and subsequent complaint, but we did not receive an immediate response.

Anthropic Lost $42 Billion on $4.6 Billion in Revenues in 2025: Leaked IPO Prospectus  - by Wolf Richter - Anthropic, which is targeting to go public at an IPO valuation of $2 trillion (trillion with a T), generated a net loss of $42 billion in 2025 on $4.6 billion in revenues, according to its IPO prospectus that was leaked to Reuters. The net loss had multiplied by five from $8 billion in 2024. The revenues had multiplied by 12. A quarter of its revenues came from just two customers, the company said, “and as part of its risk factors, warned that many of its largest clients were not locked into long-term contracts and could cut or stop spending,” according to Reuters. Total operating expenses rose to $12.6 billion in 2025. This includes $7.3 billion in spending on compute and infrastructure, which had nearly tripled from $2.5 billion in 2024. And the company plans to spend $518 billion in the coming years on cloud, computing, and infrastructure obligations, according to the prospectus cited by Reuters. So now it needs a lot of AI magic money; and at a valuation of $2 trillion, the IPO and any follow-on offerings would extract a lot of this AI magic money from investors. “Excluding write-downs of various liabilities mostly tied to previous fundraising, according to the documents,” amounting to $34 billion, the company generated an operating loss of $8.1 billion, Reuters said. The company isn’t going to run out of cash right away, despite the massive cash burn: At the end of 2025, the company sat on $20.3 billion in cash and short-term investments, according to the prospectus cited by Reuters. But that was before the massive $65 billion in Series H funding round in May 2026. For the Series H funding round in May, the valuation of the company was set at $965 billion. The IPO valuation target of $2 trillion would more than double that. I mean, why not? It’s AI magic money. “The [IPO] plans come as Anthropic confronts evidence ⁠from its own research that increasingly autonomous AI models can behave in unexpected and potentially harmful ways, including sabotaging code, assisting fraud and manipulating information in controlled tests,” Reuters said. But there is a solution to that problem: Hold the executives and their companies legally responsible and accountable for creating and selling products that cause harm. These are not accidents; the products are doing what some of the smartest people around have designed them to do. AI is not a human-like creature. It is software that does what it is designed to do. The harm is not caused by human misusing the products. The harm is caused by the software on its own by the way it was designed. Politicians of all stripes should condemn the efforts currently underway to create liability shields for these companies. And tort lawyers and prosecutors should be cranking up their machinery so that they’re ready when that harm occurs. That will encourage the AI companies and their executives to create products that are not inherently harmful on their own.

There’s a new warning from Bill Gates that could be his most serious yet -- One billion. That is the figure Bill Gates put on the table Sunday during his sit-down with NBC's Kristen Welker on Meet the Press. Pressed on whether artificial intelligence could ultimately end all of humanity, the Microsoft co-founder sidestepped that exact question and pointed to a ten-digit death toll. It is a number usually tied to pandemics and nuclear war, and Gates attached it to software. His explanation of how came next. Gates delivered the line himself: "AI is certainly powerful enough to drive events that, you know, cause a billion deaths." He acknowledged that a full 100 percent is a steep bar, then set the technology against every weapon in history: "there's never been a weapon as powerful as the combination of people with ill intent using the latest AI tools." Gates named a remedy as directly as he named the risk. Law enforcement and elected officials, he said, need a seat in the conversation about safeguards. He also called for keeping watch on every advanced model and maintaining an exact log of its activity. Someone with legal authority would have to hold that record, which is a striking request from a man who spent decades near the center of the industry he now wants supervised. The kind of misuse Gates described already has a paper trail. On Sept. 10, Anthropic released its latest threat intelligence report, covering December 2025 through August 2026. Analysts sorted the abuse into seven categories: cyber operations, influence campaigns, surveillance, fraud, biological misuse, conventional weapons, and illicit copying of models. The company says it disrupted every operation described. The weapons cases drew the most scrutiny. One case involved freelance actors believed to be based in Russia. According to Anthropic, they used Claude Code to test and refine software for a swarm of first-person-view kamikaze drones. The code included what the report calls autonomous lethal engagement, meaning onboard systems could spot a target and order detonation with no human in the loop. The team trained its recognition system on scraped footage from the war in Ukraine, sorting targets into enemy and friendly. The biology cases came from a different kind of user. Anthropic identified and blocked five attempts by scientists to use Claude for research that could support biological weapons work. One came from a researcher tied to a military institute who wanted help with a gain-of-function study. Another user tried to draft a state-sponsored grant proposal aimed at making the chikungunya virus spread more easily and slip past immune defenses. Anthropic responded by restricting a wide range of dual-use biology queries on Claude Fable 5 and later models. The unease had been building inside the labs before any chief executive spoke up. Jacob Coxon, a former Anthropic researcher, resigned and published a post that spread widely online, cautioning that the companies racing to build ever stronger AI were putting the public at risk. Coverage describes him as warning of an existential threat. His departure came within days of an essay from his former boss. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei published "We Must Pace the Frontier" on Sept. 12, arguing that AI companies should deliberately slow how quickly their models gain new abilities. He pointed to two triggers: AI increasingly building the next generation of AI, and the OpenAI-Hugging Face incident, in which a swarm of agents attacked targets it was never assigned. Pacing should not halt training, he wrote, and regulation covering every US frontier lab is the strongest way to enforce it. Reaction came fast. OpenAI's Sam Altman publicly agreed, and Elon Musk wrote on X that "Dario is right." Gates had reached a similar place weeks earlier. In an August essay, he wrote that no plan exists for easing the world into the AI era, and that he would probably back any credible plan for slowing the technology globally. That was a sharp turn for a man long known as an optimist. Washington's answer came in a Truth Social post.

The next bioweapon could attack our genes instead of our bodies. I promise you we’re not ready for that. - We live in an age of seemingly unending crises. The world continues to warm, pushing Earth into the sixth mass extinction event in its history. Intractable wars and conflicts rage on multiple continents. The U.S. life expectancy is now at the lowest it’s been in 30 years. Then, there’s artificial intelligence, a massive uncertainty bomb with the equal possibility to help solve—or exacerbate—all of the above. Nowhere is this more obvious than in the biomedical field, where AI’s ability to pore over massive data sets, recognize patterns, and design novel viruses and bacteriophages is already reshaping research. This is only the beginning of what scientists call “synthetic biology,” and like so many human breakthroughs, it could be critical to tackling medical crises, such as the rise of antimicrobial-resistant superbugs. But those tools could just as easily fuel a new age of bioweapons, a threat serious enough that Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei recently called for a slowdown of AI development.  Arms control experts have warned for decades about weapons that attack the human genome instead of the human body. And unfortunately, those warnings aren’t hypothetical, since cruder chemical versions have already been used in warfare. Between 1962 and 1971, U.S. aircraft sprayed nearly 19 million gallons of herbicide across Vietnam. Much of it was Agent Orange, tainted during manufacture with TCDD—the most toxic dioxin ever identified, and a known human carcinogen. It causes birth defects and abnormalities in developing embryos.   Of course, Vietnam wasn’t the only theater of war where weapons were used that caused prolonged medical issues, whether cancer or reproductive problems. In the early 1980s, U.S. Secretary of State Alexander Haig accused the USSR of using Trichothecene mycotoxins (a known teratogen), otherwise known as “yellow rain,” in Southeast Asia and Afghanistan. In 1995, Saddam Hussein’s regime admitted to the U.N. that Iraq had developed aflatoxins—chemicals produced by the fungi Aspergillus flavus and Aspergillus parasiticus—for use in aerial bombs and Scud missile warheads. The toxin wasn’t meant to kill troops. Instead, its main method of destruction is an insidious one: It causes the rapid development of liver cancer, particularly in children.“From a moral standpoint, aflatoxin is the cruelest weapon,” Richard Spertzel, the chief weapons inspector for the now-defunct United Nations Special Commission (UNSCOM) told Slate in 2002. “It means watching children die slowly of liver cancer.”These fears are only exacerbated today by gene editing technologies and artificial intelligence. In February 2016, the U.S. Director of National Intelligence, James Clapper, added gene-editing to a list of “weapons of mass destruction and proliferation,” and a year later, China’s People’s Liberation Army noted in an authoritative textbook that “specific ethnic genetic attacks” could become increasingly possible. In 2024, the Washington Post reported that Russia was expanding an old bioweapons lab in the midst of its ongoing invasion of Ukraine.Of course, many international legal frameworks, such as the Biological Weapons Convention in 1972, have been created to prevent such an attack from happening in the first place. But with the proliferation of synthetic biology and artificial intelligence, it’s possible such an attack could one day originate from a rogue actor. In other words, what if Amodei’s worst nightmare came to pass?   Here’s how I think it could go down. In the event of such an attack, one of the keys to an effective first response would be to figure out precisely what had happened, like when Bashar al-Assad used Sarin gas in 2013. In less than a month, investigators for the U.N.’s Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) noted that the evidence was “overwhelming and indisputable” after 85 percent of blood samples from the impacted region in Syria contained traces of the sarin gas, along with retrieved rocket fragments. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have a playbook in place for a bioterrorist threat as well, which includes coordinating with the Emergency Operations Center along with health officials and hospitals located at ground zero.The state-sponsored use of such a weapon would certainly make that country a pariah in the eyes of the U.N., though shifting global alliances can complicate matters. In Syria, for example, the U.S. and Europe cut off diplomatic ties, leveraged heavy sanctions, and even launched military strikes (which also happened following the 2017 sarin gas attacks in Syria). On the ground, scientists would have to vigorously study the mutagenic weapon, learn its impacts, and plot an appropriate course of action to stop its spread. They’d also have to provide short-term and long-term treatment for the people affected by the weapon.Depending on how devastating the weapon was, entire research foundations might form to track long-term impacts of the exposure, similar to the creation of the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) that studied the lifelong impacts of radiation exposure following the nuclear bombings of Nagasaki and Hiroshima. As also seen in the decades following the nuclear disaster at Chernobyl, science often follows the political maxim of “never letting a good crisis go to waste” when potentially life-saving knowledge can be obtained. Thankfully, here’s where some good news comes in. A 2018 report developed by scientists and experts around the U.S. titled Biodefense in the Age of Synthetic Biology highlights that developing such a weapon is prohibitively difficult. Even in the age of AI, when the technical expertise to make bioweapons is more readily available, the mechanism for deploying a weapon that would have a wide impact remains technically challenging. “Even were it to become more technologically feasible to use genes to cause oncogenesis, neurodegenerative disease, immunological collapse, or other undesirable states, in the absence of a pathogen or greatly advanced unnatural horizontal transfer mechanism to promote the dispersal of a gene, the ability of an actor to deliver genes for these purposes is limited...The mechanisms of dispersal (other than pathogens themselves) are likely to be low yield, the probability of inculcation of the disease state is likely to be low, and the onset of the disease state is likely not rapid.” But that doesn’t mean the world can turn a blind eye to this growing threat. A 2025 report by the Center of Strategic and International Studies says that the “falling barriers to bioterrorism are set to accelerate in the emerging age of AI and biotechnology” and that “U.S. biosecurity measures are ill-equipped to prevent AI-enabled biological threats.” The report goes on to suggest that, at least in the U.S., more funding needs to flow to the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) and the U.S. Center for AI Standards and Innovation (CAISI) while supporting international AI safety efforts, such as the International Network of AI Safety Institutes.The future of bioterrorism in the age of AI is another line item on the world’s growing list of uncertainty. But that doesn’t mean we can’t—and shouldn’t—prepare for the very worst outcomes.

Trump, AI CEOs sign voluntary safety pact, back data center expansion  (Reuters) - US President Donald Trump on Tuesday said ​tech executives agreed to establish voluntary standards for AI and reiterated his support for rapid expansion of data centers, as concerns mount over AI safety and the ‌industry's growing footprint in communities. Trump made the comments after meeting with tech executives at the White House. The companies agreed to work with "independent auditors" to assess whether AI systems are working as their designers intended, according to a copy of the agreement posted by Trump on his social media platform. The companies also said they would work to ensure their AI tools do not "hack or access technical systems in unintended ways."  The administration faces increasing scrutiny ​over risks posed by advanced AI, after OpenAI and Anthropic reported their AI agents had gone rogue and hacked into other companies' systems. Data centers, which provide the computing power ​to train and run AI models, have drawn opposition in communities nationwide over concerns about electricity demand, utility costs and other local impacts. The ⁠backlash poses a political challenge for Republicans heading into the US midterm elections on November 3. "It's almost like a constitution, in a way," Trump said, referring to the agreement between ​the companies. "And the biggest people in the world signed that, and I signed it as president. And it really is a form of protection." Advertisement · Scroll to continue What began as a closed-door lunch with technology executives ​spilled into public view when Trump joined House Speaker Mike Johnson and a lineup of CEOs on the White House driveway, an area rarely used by the president to speak to journalists. He took questions from reporters for about 30 minutes on AI safety and other topics with the CEOs standing behind him. The unusual scene came as pressure has mounted on the administration to address the risks and rapid spread of AI, and underscored the ​alliance Trump has cultivated with leaders of the tech industry. Executives at the meeting included OpenAI's Greg Brockman, Anthropic's Dario Amodei, Meta's Mark Zuckerberg, Google's Sundar Pichai and Nvidia's Jensen ​Huang. Zuckerberg, pulled forward from the crowd of billionaire executives by Trump to speak, said the companies agreed to develop "robust internal controls" for their AI systems. Trump said he is considering setting up a 10-person board ‌to police ⁠the safety of AI tools. He did not specify potential members of that group. He added he would soon name a new official to lead White House policies on AI.   Asked whether he was concerned that his support for data centers could hurt Republicans in November, Trump said tech companies would work to make communities "happy" about the construction of data centers. "These big, powerful, very rich, very smart companies are going to be making massive contributions to communities," Trump later told reporters gathered on the White House driveway, surrounded by the company executives. But ​the companies have come under fire for not ​doing enough to make AI safer. A ⁠nationwide Reuters/Ipsos poll from September 17 to 20 shows some 73% of respondents worry that AI companies haven't done enough to prevent AI from causing serious harm to society, and 55% of people said it would be good to slow AI development. AI company executives and investors were among ​the largest individual donors in 2025 to MAGA Inc., a political action committee aligned with the president. OpenAI's Brockman and his wife, ​Anna Brockman, gave a ⁠combined $25 million to the committee in 2025, according to Federal Election Commission records. Trump met with the CEOs the same day his aides announced a new AI tool that they said will make it easier for the public to use government services. Silicon Valley executives attended an event launching the new tool, including Meta's Dina Powell McCormick and Sequoia Capital partner Shaun Maguire. Airbnb co-founder Joe Gebbia led the ⁠design of ​the new tool. Silicon Valley companies Google, SpaceX, Meta and 8VC were listed in the launch event's program as ​sponsors. Trump at the launch event said the AI tool could not "in theory, be hacked into" by bad actors. He did not provide evidence. Trump on Tuesday also directed government agencies to use the words "super intelligence" instead of "artificial intelligence" when ​referring to the technology.

President Said He Will Never ‘Stifle’ Growth Of A.I.; Promotes Voluntary Self-Policing Of A.I. Development -(AP) — President Donald Trump on Tuesday said that he and a large group of leaders of artificial intelligence companies had signed a voluntary accord that will include internal and external reviews during a meeting at the White House aimed at addressing Americans’ fears about the technology.“I think I’m seeing tremendous self-policing. And they understand that they have to self-police,” Trump told reporters during an impromptu press conference outside the West Wing. Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson met with leading executives from top tech firms that are spending hundreds of billions of dollars to build out AI infrastructure, including data centers in communities across the country, which have sparked grassroots, bipartisan opposition. The accord was signed by Trump, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, Google CEO Sundar Pichai, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, OpenAI President Greg Brockman, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, and Elon Musk, founder of xAI, which is now part of SpaceX. The accord, which Trump posted on his social media site, Truth Social, late Tuesday, opened the door to future regulation but focused on four voluntary steps for the companies to take. The accord said the companies would implement “robust internal controls,” partner with an “independent external auditor” to assess whether the controls were working, and establish a committee within each company’s board of directors to evaluate reports from internal and external auditors. “Over time, it may make sense to codify these steps into laws and regulations,” the accord said. Trump repeatedly praised the business executives for developing a technology that he said would produce “unbelievable growth.” Investment in data centers and the accompanying computer equipment has accelerated the economy and boosted the stock market, which has swelled investment accounts for higher-income Americans and lifted their spending. Yet there were some notes of caution Tuesday. Amodei, who has been one of the most outspoken voices, calling for a slowdown in AI development, said, “The technology has very real risks.” “And, you know, the mechanism, how we address those risks is still under discussion,” Amodei said. Trump suggested that about 10 people would be named to a committee to “watch over the whole enterprise” and said the accord would be “morally binding.” He also said he would name someone to oversee the agreement in coming days after consulting with industry.

White House ‘Superintelligence’ Self-Policing Accord Document Includes Spelling Error On President’s Signature Line: ‘President Of The Unites States’ - The White House misspelled “United States” under the signature of Donald Trump on an accord he signed with AI executives on Tuesday. At the bottom of the accord on “Super Intelligence”, the term Trump has used to rebrand artificial intelligence, the president’s signature appeared as “President of the Unites States”. It is unclear how the misspelling occurred or whether it will appear in the Federal Register, the database that contains official presidential actions and other government documents. Trump and six tech executives signed the document voluntarily committing to safely developing AI to address widespread concerns, sparked by industry leaders who warned the technology is evolving too rapidly to control. Trump has largely brushed aside concerns about AI harming humans and called for companies to continue developing the technology so the US can become the global leader in AI. Even while signing the accord on safety, the US president praised the business executives for growth. Trump posted the document containing the misspelling on Truth Social, and the White House Communications Team emailed it out shortly after it was signed. The Bloomberg News correspondent David Gura appeared to be the first to notice the spelling error. The Guardian has asked the White House for comment The accord on artificial intelligence outlined four layers of “controls and audits” that companies will implement to ensure AI capabilities operate as intended. That includes “robust” internal controls and partnering with an “independent external auditor or evaluator”. Potential internal controls could include empowering a team to monitor and detect that AI is operating correctly and creating monitors to ensure AI technologies will not hack or access technical systems in cybersecurity, biosecurity and chemical threats. External monitors would also check to make sure the AI is operating as intended and companies could designate a committee of the board of directors to oversee reports from teams operating the controls of the AI. The accord is the first step in addressing concerns, raised by industry experts in mid-September. Americans have become increasingly skeptical of AI. A recent New York Times/Siena College poll found that 61% of voters opposed the construction of datacenters, while an SSRS/CNN poll found that 71% of Americans believed the government wasn’t doing enough to regulate the growth and development of AI. While Tuesday’s document is only an accord, it left open the possibility of codifying the framework into formal regulations or laws – something Trump has repeatedly rejected. “I think I’m seeing tremendous self-policing,” Trump told reporters outside the White House on Tuesday. “And they understand that they have to self-police.” The six executives who signed the accord are Dario Amodei from Anthropic; Elon Musk from SpaceXAI; Greg Brockman from OpenAI; Jensen Huang from Nvidia; Mark Zuckerberg from Meta; and Sundar Pichai from Google.

Trump’s ‘self-policing’ AI accord faces skepticism -  The signing of an AI accord by President Trump and tech leaders has done little to quell concerns over the lack of guardrails surrounding artificial intelligence. While Trump says industry officials can self-police, critics say more is needed to make sure AI development doesn’t get out of hand, even as some described it as a step in the right direction.“I believe that these folks are sincere in their concerns, but sincerity does not abolish self-interest,” said Tom Wheeler, a visiting fellow in governance studies at the Brookings Institution and former chair of the Federal Communications Commission (FCC).“This is a legitimate and sincere recognition of the problems,” he added. “It is not, however, a solution to the problems because the people who are creating the problems are designing the solutions.”Several of the biggest players in the industry signed the one-page pledge Tuesday that included four “layers of controls and audits.”It declared that AI companies should implement “robust” internal controls over models, empower an internal crew to crosscheck controls and mediate any issues, partner with independent external auditors to evaluate their controls and designate an independent committee of the board of directors to oversee reports from the operating teams. The signatories included Google CEO Sundar Pichai, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, OpenAI president Greg Brockman, xAI CEO Elon Musk and Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, who met with Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) at the White House.Trump, who made a rare appearance on the White House North Lawn alongside Johnson and the tech leaders Tuesday afternoon, described the accord as “morally binding.”“These are seriously high IQ people, and they’re really watching over each other,” he said.“I’m seeing tremendous self-policing, and they understand that they have to self-police. … And again, I believe they’re going to be used for the good,” he continued, referring to AI models. “And when they’re not, we’re going to be able to nab them.” The accord does say that “over time, it may make sense to codify these steps into laws or regulations.” It comes as Washington is grappling with how to regulate AI in the face of a spate of cybersecurity incidents involving AI agents and warnings from researchers about the technology’s risks to humanity.  Even as AI leaders like Altman and Amodei have called for a slowdown and new guardrails, Trump has dismissed safety concerns as a “hoax,” arguing the U.S. must press forward with development to stay ahead of China. Instead of creating new rules, he has suggested his administration can regulate the technology as needed through agencies like the Department of Justice (DOJ). But Ruth Whittaker, director of technology at center-left think tank Third Way, argued the president’s approach “continues to fall short.”“We need more than voluntary commitments—we need actual laws on the books to keep Americans safe,” she said in a statement. “We need a mandatory system to test models before they’re released and block models that pose unacceptable risks.”Anthony Aguirre, president and CEO of the Future of Life Institute, which focuses on reducing extreme risks from technology, pointed to the companies’ track record on safety issues. He argued in a statement that they “have jettisoned safety commitments countless times before, and they will do so again.” Democratic lawmakers, who urged Johnson to keep the House in session to tackle AI legislation ahead of the midterms, were similarly dismayed by the accord.  “The notion of entering into a voluntary agreement that is entirely unenforceable, and that allows the industry writ large to police itself, is not the right response at this moment given the potentially grave harm and danger that industry leaders themselves are now flagging for the American people,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) told reporters Wednesday. Even some Republicans were skeptical about how much tech firms can be trusted to police themselves.  Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), a vocal critic of Big Tech, called the accord a “good first step.” But when asked whether he thinks people can take the AI executives at their word, he added, “I’m not saying you can.”“I think it’s significant that finally, I mean, these AI execs are starting to realize, ‘Gee, people hate us. Maybe, maybe we gotta take some responsibility,’” he told reporters Wednesday. “But I think the bottom line of this is that people want to see these companies take responsibility for the stuff they break.”  Others were more laudatory of the effort. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), who chairs the Senate Commerce Committee, said he was “grateful for the president’s leadership.”“I think it was inspired leadership, and the president is right,” he told reporters. “It is critical that Americans win the race for AI and beat communist China.”“At the same time, with any new technology there’s risks, and we need to take decisive action to protect against those risks,” Cruz continued. “I thought the president did a very good job of balancing those.”  Johnson has dismissed calls in recent weeks to tackle AI legislation. He told CNBC on Tuesday that he has “resisted the siren song to jump in and do these blanket moratoriums and all of this hyperregulation because we cannot lose our edge to China.” Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.), who is working on AI legislation with Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), appears more receptive to the push for guardrails but has argued for a light-touch approach. He told Axios on Wednesday that the pledge is a “step in the right direction,” while suggesting they are considering a legislative framework to “codify” safety protections.Trump could complicate any such effort. Brad Carson, president of Americans for Responsible Innovation, which advocates for AI guardrails, underscored that “meaningful legislation is hard” as long as the president opposes it.He called the accord a “promising start,” adding that “the devil will be in the details of its execution because yes, it was voluntary, but the president called it morally binding, so presumably the administration will look askance at anyone who doesn’t follow it.”“But I think in the end, you’re going to have to have government oversight with this to ensure quality control,” he told The Hill.Jennifer Huddleston, a senior fellow in technology policy at the Cato Institute, suggested there are “a lot of strong incentives” on companies to have “high quality products” even though the agreement is voluntary.“No one wants to be thought of as the product that’s inherently risky or inherently faulty,” she said, adding, “I do think that there are a lot of incentives on these companies to be trustworthy, to be good stewards, to comply with what they have said they will.”

Pentagon Announces Plan To Launch ‘Autonomous Warfare Command’ To Leverage ‘Super Intelligence’ In Warfare -  - US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth on Wednesday announced plans to create a new four-star combatant command to leverage AI in warfare. During a “State of the Force” address at Marine Corps Base Quantico, Virginia, Hegseth said the Autonomous Warfare Command (AUTOWARCOM) would be tasked with scaling “autonomous and robotic capabilities across the Joint Force in the fastest peacetime shift in modern military history.”The Pentagon intends to launch AUTOWARCOM by October 2027, but it will need to secure Congressional approval to do so. If approved, AUTOWARCOM will become the military’s 12th combatant command. The last new command was US Space Command, launched in 2019 under the first Trump Administration. AUTOWARCOM will coordinate drones, robotics, artificial intelligence, and autonomous weapons platforms across the military. It will work to expedite acquisition and deployment of new technologies and seek to make autonomous warfare a central military doctrine.Hegseth said the necessity of the new command was made clear by the Russia–Ukraine war and its proliferation of low-cost drones in combat. “Today, with…Autowarcom …we institutionalize — and we supercharge — the era of [super intelligence], robotics and autonomous systems, all in order to win,” Hegseth said.  Pentagon critics have taken the War Department to task for continuing to field extremely expensive platforms, such as aircraft carriers, that are increasingly useless in a modern battle. Hegseth’s speech implied that the Pentagon would continue to field such platforms but also explore modern systems. According to the War Department, Hegseth “announced that he has directed the direct reporting portfolio manager for unmanned systems to lead ‘Project Agincourt,’ an organization that will establish the pathway for [AUTOWARCOM], as well as to execute the existing unmanned systems mission while prototyping a new acquisition model.” He also promised that through Project Meridian, “the Pentagon’s chief technology officer would partner with members of the private sector to study the future of warfare.”

The AI boom meets a new kind of crypto scam -  VENTURE CAPITALISTS are pouring so much money into artificial intelligence that little is left over for anything else. Some, though, retain a soft spot for an earlier mania: cryptocurrency finance. In the first half of this year crypto startups received $10bn in venture capital through nearly 750 deals. Besides using lots of computing power, AI and crypto have had little in common. But an investigation by The Economist suggests the two are tightly linked by a booming illicit trade. Issuance of crypto-enabled credit and debit cards is surging. These cards connect crypto wallets to payment terminals used by ordinary businesses. They allow people in poor countries with unreliable currencies to transact in stablecoins pegged to less flaky foreign monies, notably the dollar. But crypto cards have other big customers, too. Many card providers do not make serious attempts to verify the identity of their cardholders. That has left them open to abuse by criminals and sanctions evaders. They also let people in places like China buy subscriptions to American frontier AI models, circumventing the model-builders’ restrictions on sales to America’s adversaries. Crypto cards convert digital currencies into real-world money when swiped at Visa and Mastercard terminals, and their use is growing. Although such cards can be linked to bitcoin, ether and other unstable coins, the volatility of unpegged cryptocurrencies makes them a poor means of exchange. Stablecoins, whose overall market value has nearly doubled in the past two years to over $300bn, are still mostly stores of value. But stablecoin cards were used in transactions worth more than $1.1bn in August, three times as much as a year earlier, according to Paymentscan, a data provider. The true figure is probably higher; many crypto-card providers do not report their transaction volume. In the past couple of years regulators in America, Europe and Hong Kong have encouraged this growth by writing clearer rules for digital currencies. As a result, cryptocurrencies in general, and specifically stablecoins, have gained respectability. In particular, in an aggressive effort to capture a slice of the growing crypto economy, Visa and Mastercard have begun offering membership in their networks, hitherto mostly reserved for banks, to startup card-issuers with payments licences. These issuers in turn lend their network access to providers of crypto cards. Among the largest of the issuers are Rain, Reap and Wirex. All three say they take their compliance responsibilities seriously. In January Rain raised $250m from venture-capital funds, including big names like Iconiq and Lightspeed. The crypto providers sign up customers under their own brand. Between April and September the number of identifiable providers grew from around 100 to 250. The involvement of Visa and Mastercard enables the crypto providers to offer, via the issuers, cards carrying the two payments giants’ logos (as well as their own) that can be used anywhere in the world. The spread of stablecoins worries regulators in poor countries, since it could lead to pseudo-dollarisation of their economies. But it should concern their rich-world peers, too. Stablecoins, notes Eswar Prasad of Cornell University, “create additional conduits for illicit financial transactions, both within and between countries”. Illicit crypto flows surpassed $158bn last year, estimates TRM Labs, an analytics firm. For businesses that want to block certain customers, crypto cards can make it difficult to verify a cardholder’s identity or location. Persian- and Russian-language sites, for example, advertise their own or third-party crypto cards to, among others, Iranians and Russians, who are locked out of the Western financial system by sanctions against their countries. One Russian-language site boasts that they enable users to “pay for ChatGPT, Claude, Netflix, Spotify…and other international services”. Like payment cards from digital “neobanks” such as Monzo or Revolut, crypto cards can in principle be issued only to verified customers who have gone through the usual know-your-customer (KYC) checks. In practice, however, the providers are not always assiduous. For some of them, weak KYC is a selling point. A report published in April by Crystal Intelligence, another analytics firm, found that nearly seven in ten crypto-card providers had weak KYC requirements or none at all. About half of the no-KYC providers identified by Crystal Intelligence were based in Hong Kong and a fifth in America. Others sell virtual cards, in some cases entirely legally, while being licensed in the Caucuses or Gulf countries, where KYC rules are weaker and less vigorously enforced. It is possible that some of the firms advertise weak- or no-KYC cards but demand identity verification after a cardholder begins transacting. Some can verify customer identities without asking for documentation. Many crypto-card providers enforce rules on their products and are not dodgy. A few even cap payments to vendors like Starlink, a satellite-internet firm, whose products are illicitly used by Russia’s armed forces and its shadow oil-tanker fleet. But in some instances, Crystal Intelligence found, providers did not ask for identity information, and in others no attempt was made to verify the information given. The Economist applied for a Visa card through a Russian-language channel on Telegram, a messaging app, that promised “no documents, no waiting and no long forms” and had it linked to an Apple Pay wallet within minutes. The provider is named CinCin, and did not clearly identify the card issuer it was working with. The card advertised monthly payment limits of $500,000. Visa says that it follows the law everywhere and prohibits illegal activity on its network. One increasingly common use of crypto cards is to allow Chinese users to pay for access to American AI models and chatbots such as Claude and ChatGPT. Chinese social media are full of guides on how to circumvent both American restrictions and a domestic ban on foreign AI. Mostly users pay money to a third-party “transfer station”, which purchases AI tokens (the chunks of data processed by models) in an unrestricted country and resells them to users in China. Other tutorials teach Chinese users to buy subscriptions directly from the labs, by purchasing fake identities or obscuring their location with crypto cards. At least one online Chinese-language guide for dodging the American AI labs’ country restrictions advises users to apply for a Mastercard, from a provider in Dubai. Users in mainland China can employ a virtual private network to pretend to be in another country and pick an address in that country on Google Maps to get their card. Providers like the one in Dubai claim to do KYC. Yet in the Chinese tutorial video, the host reassures viewers that the provider does not attempt to verify if the address is real, as a bank might by asking for a utility bill. Mastercard says that it takes governance seriously and prohibits reloadable “no-KYC” cards on its network. A source at an American crypto provider whose cards are issued by Rain says that each month he sees hundreds of users signing up for his firm’s Visa cards with China-issued IDs with addresses outside China. In one instance, his firm observed a user with a Shenzhen IP address and China-issued ID apply for a card with a non-Chinese address; the user then spent $50,000 on ChatGPT subscriptions in the Bolivian Apple app store. Rain says it is investigating these reports. Rain accepts Chinese IDs, since their holders could be resident abroad, but rejects users who apply with a Chinese address. Yet a number of providers which offer cards via Rain allow users who fail KYC checks by entering a Chinese address to try again, with one even encouraging them to “try again with another address”. Rain says it maintains high standards for its compliance programme, takes seriously attempts to circumvent its controls and abides by all regulations. Since late 2024 one Hong Kong-based crypto provider serving Chinese-speaking users, and tracked by Crystal Intelligence, saw more than $355m in dollar stablecoins flow into its card-linked wallets and has processed 4,000 transactions. Some observers suspect that many of these transfers are used for wholesale purchases of AI tokens. “I would hazard a guess”, says the source at the American crypto provider, “that a substantial amount of the $1bn-a-month stablecoin card spend is funding the grey token market.” On September 10th Anthropic accused Alibaba, a Chinese internet giant, of illicitly gaining access to the Claude model 151m times between May and July to train its own models in a process known as “distillation”. Anthropic alleges that to do so Alibaba used a pool of 5,000 Claude accounts, some paid for with virtual cards to hide its actions. Alibaba did not respond to a request for comment.

100 Coinbase users lose millions to fake support calls - A Brooklyn man has been sentenced to four to 12 years in prison for stealing nearly $16 million from approximately 100 Coinbase users. The phishing and social engineering scheme ran for more than a year, the Brooklyn District Attorney's Office announced on Sept. 23.Coinbase is an American cryptocurrency exchange that lets users buy, sell and store digital assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies.  Phishing is a type of cyberattack where someone pretends to be a trusted company, in this case Coinbase, to trick people into handing over their money or personal information. Ronald Spektor, 23, of Sheepshead Bay, Brooklyn, contacted Coinbase users posing as a company representative and told them their accounts had been compromised by a hacker.  He then convinced them to transfer their funds to a new wallet that they believed was under their own control. But it was actually accessible by Spektor, according to the DA's office. Once the funds were moved, Spektor emptied the wallets and laundered the stolen cryptocurrency. He swapped it across multiple exchanges before routing it to gambling services, online storefronts and cash-out points where it could be converted to other currencies, gift cards or cash, prosecutors said. Victims came from across the United States and from all walks of life, with some losing over $1 million each, the DA's office said. According to investigators, Spektor operated under the handle @lolimfeelingevil on Telegram, where he ran a channel called "Blockchain enemies" and openly bragged about his heists. Recovered messages showed he claimed to have made millions through scamming and admitted to losing $6 million gambling with stolen cryptocurrency.The Brooklyn DA's Virtual Currency Unit traced the scheme through transaction records, blockchain analysis and digital forensics recovered from multiple search warrants. Spektor's home IP address was linked to multiple wallets from which cryptocurrency was stolen, the office said. When online allegations of fraud surfaced against him, he disposed of a hardware wallet and bought a new one, according to text messages recovered from his phone.Spektor pleaded guilty to the full 31-count indictment on Sept. 2, including first-degree money laundering, grand larceny and criminal possession of stolen property. He was ordered to forfeit cash, crypto and personal property worth over $500,000 and make restitution of nearly $16 million.

Newsom Signs Sweeping Anti-Corruption Package Cracking Down on Meme Coins, Crypto Fraud, and Self-Dealing by Public Officials -  Governor Gavin Newsom signed a sweeping package of anti-corruption and consumer protection legislation, MeidasTouch has exclusively learned, delivering one of the starkest contrasts yet between California's approach to governance and the self-dealing that has defined the Trump administration. The legislation builds on Newsom's ongoing efforts to level the playing field for workers and consumers, aiming to prevent public officials from issuing meme coins, protect consumers from predatory practices, hold bad actors accountable, and recover money for victims, all while the Trump administration continues to display what critics have called an unprecedented level of corruption and self-dealing, including through Trump's own meme coin, which has cost Americans billions. The centerpiece of the package is Assembly Bill 2409, authored by Assemblymember Avelino Valencia, which bars California public officials from issuing meme coins and prevents companies from listing any meme coin that uses a public official's likeness or image. Meme coins are a type of cryptocurrency built around an internet joke, celebrity, or trend, with prices driven largely by hype and speculation rather than any underlying business or practical use. Trump launched his own meme coin in 2025, and recent reporting shows the nearly one million people who bought into it have collectively lost more than $3 billion, while Trump himself walked away with an estimated $636 million in profit. "While the scam that is Donald Trump continues to hurt American families, California is fighting to make our economy work for people, not the powerful," Newsom said. "No official should profit off their office, and we're putting stronger protections in place to ensure it doesn't happen in our state." The package also includes Senate Bill 1208, authored by Senator Tim Grayson, which targets crypto fraud and money laundering by establishing clear guidelines to help victims of crypto scams recover their losses. Alongside it, new legislation creates a formal legal process for seizing crypto assets tied to transnational criminal networks, giving law enforcement clearer tools to pursue bad actors while protecting everyday Californians who use cryptocurrency. Consumer protections extend well beyond crypto. Assembly Bill 1349, from Assemblymember Isaac Bryan, requires full refunds for events that are canceled, postponed, or rescheduled and bans speculative ticket sales, while also updating regulations on bot sales and restricting deceptive websites and advertising practices in the ticketing industry. A companion measure, Assembly Bill 1640, the California Restaurant Reservation AntiPiracy Act from Assemblymember Catherine Stefani, prohibits unauthorized third parties from buying up and reselling restaurant and tee time reservations for profit, protecting consumers from exploitation of online reservation systems and ensuring a fair, transparent process for everyone. The package also takes a significant step on digital privacy. New measures strengthen consumers' control over their own data, expanding the right to delete personal information, prohibiting operating systems or apps from overriding a user's chosen privacy settings without consent, and establishing new rules for how insurers and related companies collect, process, retain, and share personal information through Senate Bill 354, the Insurance Information and Privacy Protection Act, authored by Senate President pro Tempore Monique Limón. In total, Newsom signed eleven bills as part of the package, including Assembly Bill 1954 on municipal golf course reservations, Assembly Bill 1789 on candidate ethics training, Assembly Bill 2561 on app privacy settings, Assembly Bill 2592 on lobbyist ethics, Assembly Bill 2691 addressing felony convictions and elective office, and Senate Bill 923 expanding consumer privacy request protections. The signings extend a string of anti-corruption measures California has passed since 2019, including barring campaign and legal-defense funds from covering penalties, judgments, or settlements tied to sexual assault, abuse, or harassment, extending the state's ban on foreign governments and foreign nationals contributing to state and local candidate elections, and prohibiting Governor's Office appointees from using nonpublic information gained through public service to profit in prediction markets or to help a relative, former business partner, or anyone else profit. Taken together, the message from Sacramento is unmistakable: this is the opposite of Trump, a governor moving to close the door on the kind of self-enrichment that has come to define the current occupant of the White House, even as Trump's own meme coin continues to cost ordinary Americans billions.

Vietnamese man charged in $16 million 'pig butchering' crypto scam --A Vietnamese national was charged with money laundering for his role in a massive "pig butchering" scam, which defrauded a victim out of $16 million worth of cryptocurrency. 37-year-old Trung Nguyen Van entered the United States through the San Ysidro, California / Mexico pedestrian border entry point on September 22 and was arrested before boarding a flight to Taiwan out of Los Angeles International Airport on September 24.One of Van's victims transferred about $16 million in cryptocurrency between June and August 2024 in transfers directly traceable to Van's cryptocurrency wallet, believing they were investing in a crypto investment platform called "Triangle."After collecting the funds, the defendant transferred them to a private, unhosted crypto wallet off the centralized blockchain network.According to court documents, the charges stem from a broader wire fraud scheme involving more than $125,000,000 in cryptocurrency, with Van's crypto wallet receiving over $53 million between February 2018 and December 2024, including at least $24 million in crypto assets linked to known "pig butchering" schemes."From Feb. 9, 2018, through Dec. 17, 2024, Van's cryptocurrency wallets received approximately $53,275,939 in cryptocurrency assets from wire fraud schemes targeting United States citizens. The wallet transferred approximately $53,188,466 worth of the same cryptocurrency assets to other accounts off the centralized blockchain network," the Department of Justice said."Each of the victims were instructed to transfer cryptocurrency to different websites, but each victim reported a similar story. In each of these schemes, victims were guided by an individual they met online to invest cryptocurrency in a specified 'website' with a promise of high financial returns. Ultimately, each victim was never able to withdraw funds they invested and eventually discovered they had been defrauded."  In pig butchering scams (also known as cryptocurrency investment scams or romance baiting), fraudsters reach out to targets via social media, dating sites, and messaging apps, build trust, and then lure victims into fake investment schemes. However, instead of investing the funds, scammers steal the money by moving it into crypto accounts under their control.The U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) said in its 2025 Internet Crime Report that Americans lost almost $21 billion to cyber-enabled crimes last year, with investment scams accounting for 49% of all scam-related incidents and resulting in $8.6 billion in losses.In February, a Chinese national was sentenced to 20 years in prison in absentia for his role in an international pig butchering scheme that defrauded victims of more than $73 million, months after U.S. federal authorities established a task force that aims to disrupt Chinese cryptocurrency scam networks known as the Scam Center Strike Force team.

Cryptocurrency ATM scams surge in Treasure Valley as callers pose as police — The Treasure Valley Partnership (TVP) is warning of a growing cryptocurrency ATM scam across the Treasure Valley. In one of the most common versions of the scam, callers impersonate law enforcement and tell victims there is a warrant for their arrest. Victims are instructed to withdraw cash and deposit it into a cryptocurrency ATM to resolve the warrant or avoid arrest. Scammers may stay on the phone throughout the transaction, using fear and urgency to keep victims from questioning what they are being told. TVP says that in Meridian, 30 victims lost a combined $1.3 million between January and July of this year alone. In Eagle, Star, Kuna and unincorporated Ada County, scam losses totaled approximately $486,000 in 2025. In 2026, losses are tracking at a similar pace, with $406,000 already lost to scams through September. Caldwell has reported 44 cases over the past three years. Approximately half of identified victims are over age 60, although people of all ages have fallen victim to these scams. The growing losses are prompting local governments to consider additional action. Star Mayor Trevor Chadwick adopted an ordinance banning cryptocurrency ATMs within the city limits. Kuna Mayor Joe Stear is working on an ordinance addressing cryptocurrency kiosks, potentially prohibiting the machines within city limits, citing their repeated use in fraud and the difficulty of recovering money once funds are transferred to a scammer’s digital wallet. BE THE FIRST TO COMMENT The Treasure Valley Partnership says it is taking the threat seriously and working with law enforcement and community leaders to confront this growing scam, protect residents and ensure people, especially older adults, know the warning signs before they become victims.

CFTC Secures $30 Million Judgment Tied to Alleged Crypto Scam – Takeaways by Bloomberg AI:

• A federal judge in Florida ordered two individuals to pay more than $30 million in restitution and penalties for allegedly defrauding more than 9,000 people in a scam involving cryptocurrencies and precious metals.
• Default judgments were entered against Brian Early and Alisha Ann Kingrey, who promoted a trading website called Fundsz in Telegram chats with customers, misrepresenting false historical weekly trading profits and downplaying risks.
• The judge ordered Kingrey and Early to pay more than $15.7 million in restitution and more than $15.7 million in civil monetary penalties, according to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

A federal judge in Florida ordered two individuals to pay more than $30 million in restitution and penalties for allegedly defrauding more than 9,000 people in a scam involving crytocurrencies and precious metals, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission said in a statement Wednesdsay. Default judgments were entered against Brian Early and Alisha Ann Kingrey, the CFTC said. The two were defendants in a 2023 lawsuit the CFTC filed against a trading website called Fundsz and its founder, Rene Larralde.The agency, which froze the company’s assets, alleged the fraud scheme promised guaranteed returns but instead made up fictional weekly returns and didn’t trade any customer funds. Early and Kingrey promoted the company in Telegram chats with customers, misrepresenting false historical weekly trading profits and downplaying risks, the CFTC said.Early didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. Kingrey said she never defrauded anyone, never met the company founder in person, and customers got paid until the government froze the company’s assets. She also said she had no means to pay the court sanctions.“You can’t get blood from a turnip,” Kingrey said. “Check my Chime bank account; I’m negative $25 as we speak.”The judge ordered Kingrey and Early to pay more than $15.7 million in restitution and more than $15.7 million in civil monetary penalties, the CFTC said.  Representatives of the estate of Rene Larralde, who died in 2023, agreed in July to surrender cash, cryptocurrency and a home to settle the CFTC’s allegations. About $4 million is expected to be returned to investors, according to a receivership filing.

9 in 10 Americans have encountered a cyber scam as AI fuels fraud, Consumer Reports finds - CBS News - Digital fraud is skyrocketing due to artificial intelligence, which is boosting criminals' ability to separate Americans from their money, new research shows. Cyberattacks and scams have targeted nine in 10 Americans, with 17% of consumers saying they've lost money to a digital security breach, according to a new report from Consumer Reports, Aspen Digital and the Global Cyber Alliance. AI is lowering the barrier to carrying out scams that would previously have been costly or laborious, experts told CBS News. The tech is driving more data breaches because it allows scammers to quickly synthesize information, which they use to create personalized traps, experts told CBS News. While leading frontier labs are warning about AI's potential destructive capabilities, including the threats it might pose to all of humanity, some experts say such scenarios are unlikely to play out in the near term, if at all. But AI has already changed the nature of digital fraud, making consumers' pocketbooks more vulnerable than they've ever been, experts told CBS News. "People have stereotypes about who gets scammed, but it is truly everyone now, and AI is just going to accelerate that," Stacey Higginbotham, a Consumer Reports cybersecurity fellow, told CBS News. "I don't think we've seen even the beginning with the number and quality of scams reaching people." Consumer Reports, which polled nearly 5,000 U.S. adults in March and April, found that 90% had encountered a digital scam or cyberattack. A separate survey by the group shows that consumers are increasingly concerned about the safety of their personal data, including potential access by bad actors to their financial accounts. "Nine in ten Americans have been targeted by a scam or cyberattack. That's not a statistic, that's almost everyone we serve," Consumer Reports president and CEO Phil Radford said in a statement. "AI is making fraud faster, cheaper and more personal, and no one can outsmart that alone. Companies need to be held accountable. Governments need real guardrails. That's the bar we're setting – for ourselves and for them." The growing ubiquity of cyberattacks is a concern for even tech-savvy individuals, who tech experts said must upgrade their online defenses to keep their information private. For example, even an individual wary of phishing emails, which often contain spelling errors and suspicious links, could fall victim to a much more sophisticated, AI-enabled scam that uses deepfake technology. "When most people encounter scams, they are messages from people they don't know," Higginbotham said. Armed with personal information obtained in a security breach, such as your physical address, a scammer could pose as a financial institution and offer you a tempting mortgage rate, for example. "AI allows scammers to make better use of the personal data they have on consumers, and lowers the cost of reaching even more people with those personalized messages," Higginbotham said. She noted that one in every five scams includes some kind of customization, a share that's expected to grow quickly. "More data breaches mean there's more personal information out there, and AI makes it easy to craft personalized messages," she said. The personalized nature of the scams is what makes bad actors more capable, experts said. "Prior to AI, the level of effort required to personalize something was too great. You couldn't personalize 50 phishing messages; it was too much work," Colin Ferris, a cybersecurity expert at Silverfort, told CBS News. Security measures, like some forms of multifactor authentication, that might once have seemed redundant or unnecessary are now essential, according to experts. While personal precautions are necessary, they're not sufficient, according to Brian Cute, president and CEO of the Global Cyber Alliance, who said in a statement that they "alone can't stop the abuse coming from upstream via insecure routing and maliciously registered domain names." "Closing those gaps takes industry, government and philanthropy working together, and that collaboration is as essential to a safer Internet as any password or security patch," he said.

Americans lose millions to WhatsApp, Facebook group scams, SEC says –   On Sept. 29, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) charged multiple entities for defrauding hundreds of retail investors, including many in the U.S.These entities were likely operated by individuals located overseas who stole at least $15 million from regular people through "investment confidence scams," the regulatory body alleged.These kind of scams involve fraudsters building online relationships with vulnerable people before stealing their money. The SEC said it charged two separate complaints, both in U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, against (a) Cryptoaiml Ltd. and Cryptoaiml Capital Foundation, and (b) TSAI Pro Ltd. and TSAI Capital Foundation.The regulator alleged that these entities pretended to be SEC-compliant, only to misappropriate more than $12.5 million and $2.8 million from unwitting investors.Cryptoaiml and Cryptoaiml Capital Foundation formed WhatsApp group chats from at least August 2024 through March 2025, posing as investment professionals. They issued AI-generated trading signals, and promised huge profits to gain the trust of unsuspecting retail investors, the SEC's complaint said.These investors opened their accounts on a fake trading platform and transferred their cryptocurrencies to the platform. Since these platforms weren't genuine, no trading ever happened, and the reflected profits were fictitious, the SEC alleged.In fact, the investors who tried withdrawing their funds were told their accounts were frozen until they paid fraudulent advance fees, the agency further alleged.As per the second SEC complaint, TSAI Pro Ltd. and TSAI Capital Foundation promoted a fake high-profit investment scheme over WhatsApp and Facebook.The entities promoted an AI trading bot platform to which investors could transfer funds, and the bot would trade on their behalf. They also told investors that they could earn money by recruiting others to invest in the program, as per the SEC.Similar to the Cryptoaiml and Cryptoaiml Capital Foundation, TSAI Pro Ltd. and TSAI Capital Foundation claimed to be SEC-compliant, the regulator alleged.David Woodcock, Director of the SEC’s Division of Enforcement, urged the public to report such scams to the agency's online tip portal.

Pirro warns social media contacts can be first crypto scam sign -— Cryptocurrency scams are becoming a growing threat to Americans, with foreign scam centers stealing millions of dollars from vulnerable victims. U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia Jeanine Pirro spoke with NewsNation’s Katie Pavlich Thursday, warning Americans that crypto scams are becoming more sophisticated. In fact, most of them begin as seemingly harmless messages from strangers online. “What they do is they contact Americans via our social media, whether it’s Facebook Messenger, whether it’s Instagram, whether it’s a telephone call or a text message… Americans are so polite, they’ll start a conversation, and then they’ll develop a friendship.”Pirro said scammers use that friendship to convince victims to invest in legitimate crypto sites. After seeing some initial returns, victims are then directed to another website where scammers can gain access to their funds.“If you start investing money in cryptocurrency that you know nothing about through someone that you met by accident on social media, it’s got to stop. This is the first signal that there’s something off.”Pirro’s warning comes as crypto scam losses continue to climb. According to the FBI’s 2025 Internet Crime Report, 181,565 Americans reported falling victim to crypto scams, with total losses exceeding $11.3 billion.  That’s why Pirro launched the Scam Center Strike Force in November 2025. It aims to combat transnational criminal scam enterprises that con Americans out of large sums of money. The Strike Force’s latest scam-center takedown was on Sept. 9, when it shuttered 13 Chinese-run scam compounds and seized $52 million in cryptocurrency stolen from Americans. The threat extends well beyond the scam centers targeted by federal authorities. September was one of the costliest for crypto security incidents so far this year, according to blockchain security companies CertiK and PeckShield. Cryptocurrency platforms and users lost about $767 million to hacks, exploits and phishing attacks — more than three times August’s reported losses of about $215 million. Pirro said the sheer number of victims shows how sophisticated these scams have become.   “Many more people smarter than you have been scammed. There’s nothing wrong with this. These people are sophisticated at conning you,” she said. “I’ve had medical doctors say to me, ‘Look, I didn’t think a scammer would spend that much time developing this relationship.’”“They’ve got to go to IC3.gov and report it. Don’t be embarrassed. Don’t be ashamed.”

Exclusive: ICBA sues OCC over trust charters   — Community bankers are suing the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency over their granting of trust charters to a number of fintechs and crypto firms, according to a lawsuit obtained by American Banker.

• Key insight: The Independent Community Bankers of America alleges in a new lawsuit that the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency has exceeded its authority in widening its ability to grant trust charters. 
• What's at stake: The ICBA says that chartering crypto companies as trust banks could drain deposits away from the banking system and put them in institutions that have no obligation or history of lending to local businesses and communities. 
• Expert quote: "This vast expansion of power creates a gaping hole in financial regulation." —ICBA lawsuit

The Independent Community Bankers of America argue in a new lawsuit that the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency is exceeding its statutory authority in granting trust charters to crypto companies.

SEC seeks to ease advisors' custody burdens with discretionary trading  -A proposal is meant to ensure advisors can trade client assets on a discretionary basis without triggering onerous custody requirements, while also giving them a self-custody option for crypto.

Key insight: The SEC wants to prevent RIAs from falling under onerous custody requirements when they exercise their discretionary authority to trade client assets while also providing a self-custody option for client assets.

Those sleepy deposits that are 90% of your customers are waking up | American Banker  -  Torten Slok is not a household name. I'm pretty sure he's never been talked about on The Daily Show, for instance, but the chief economist at Apollo Global Management is influential in financial circles. So when he suggested in his Daily Spark newsletter on Sunday that AI agents could lead a massive flood of deposits moving out of banks, the assertion got noticed.

AI agent bank runs possible but unlikely, experts say | American Banker  -   Torsten Slok, chief economist at asset management firm Apollo, stirred debate this week when he posited that Meta's Muse and other agentic AI assistants could sweep consumers' cash automatically from bank accounts reaping 0.1% interest on average into fintech accounts paying 3.3% to 5%.

• What's at stake: If AI agents let consumers move deposits more easily, banks' deposit bases could be at risk.
• Expert quote: "It is theoretically possible but in my view unlikely. If it happens, it is a long way off." —Jeff McMillan, founder, McMillan AI.

Banks Say You Authorized It: The AI Scam That Costs Victims Everything - Federal rules protect you when someone steals your money, but scammers have found a loophole that leaves banks legally off the hook and victims with nothing. AI just made that loophole much, much wider.

• Banks legally deny fraud claims when you authorize the transfer yourself, leaving victims unprotected as domestic money transfer complaints surged 1,317% in 2025.
• AI voice cloning now lets scammers impersonate your boss or banker perfectly, removing the last verification most people rely on before sending money.
• No rules yet determine who pays when an AI banking agent makes an error or is hijacked, creating a new unresolved liability gap.

If a thief drains your account with a stolen debit card, you usually lose very little. If a scammer talks you into sending the money yourself, you can lose all of it. Clark Howard, the consumer finance host, explained the gap on his podcast Wednesday:   The financial institutions say, because you were a participant in it, the fraud protections don’t apply. This is the gray area where there is no protection, where someone impersonates the financial institution. Howard is right, and artificial intelligence is widening that gap. Federal rules for electronic transfers protect you from unauthorized transactions, meaning ones you never approved. If you report a stolen card within two business days, your liability is generally capped at $50. A caller posing as your bank’s fraud department convinces you to move $10,000 into a “safe” account. You approved the transfer and the text code. To the bank, you authorized it, and the full amount is gone.The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s latest complaint report shows this pattern. When banks denied fraud claims, they cited that the consumer supplied account numbers, PINs, or text confirmations, or actively participated in the transaction. In 2025, the monthly average of domestic money transfer complaints rose 1,317% from the prior two years.  A young caller to the Clark Howard Podcast told Howard she lost money to a gift card scam. Howard’s response:  Olivia, the odds that you will be able to get any of that money restored are not good. They’re sadly very low. This money is taking a one way trip. Howard described the tactic: The criminals are so practiced at creating a sense of urgency. Your money’s at risk right now. We need you to take these steps. They already know so much about you from prior data breaches. A caller who already knows your address and bank sounds like an insider. AI takes away the last check most people rely on: a voice they recognize. Voice cloning copies a real person’s voice from a short recording. Howard warned: We’ve talked about voice cloning through AI where you could get a call from what you recognize to be the boss’s voice and it won’t even be the boss calling you. When asked to do something out of the ordinary, verify face to face whenever possible. On Wednesday morning, President Trump described his AI oversight approach: I believe they’re going to be used for the good, and when they’re not, we’re going to be able to nab them. But there’s going to be a tremendous self-policing aspect.Jim Cramer took the opposite view on CNBC’s Mad Money Tuesday evening: Right now we have a president who says, the guardrails, full speed ahead. He believes self-policing is enough, even as the record of private industry self-policing isn’t all that great.Both men disagree on how far to trust industry self-policing. Whoever is right, a loss from a cloned voice still lands on the account holder. An AI agent is software that carries out tasks like moving money between accounts. Some would need your banking login. Cramer doubts consumers will accept this: I find it hard to believe that consumers will be happy to let AI move their money around bank to bank, night by night, just to get a few extra basis points of yield. I don’t think people want to give their bank information to these agents. Today’s protections assume a person moved the money. If you give an agent your login, it remains unresolved who pays when the agent makes a mistake or gets hijacked. Four Habits That Close the Gap:

• Hang up on any fraud alert you didn’t expect. Howard’s rule: “When you are contacted out of the blue by somebody claiming to be with the fraud department of any financial institution, say thank you so much for the alert and you hang up the phone. Period.”
• Call back on a number you look up yourself, from the back of your card or a paper statement. Never use a number the caller, a text, or an email gives you.
• Check any unusual request through a second channel, in person whenever possible. This applies to wires, transfers, and gift cards.
• Freeze your credit at all three major credit bureaus. A freeze limits what a thief can open in your name, but it cannot stop a transfer you make yourself.

Until consumer protections catch up with how fraud works now, your safety net disappears the moment you approve a transfer yourself.

Fed extends deadline for Regulation O comments - The Federal Reserve announced Friday that it is giving the banking industry an additional month to comment on a proposal to modernize Regulation O, a nearly 50-year-old rule that restricts how much credit banks can extend to their own senior officials.

• Key takeaway: Based on industry feedback the Federal Reserve pushed back the commentary deadline from Oct. 5 to Nov. 4. 
• Expert quote: "The Board extended the comment period to allow interested parties more time to analyze the issues and prepare their comments." —Federal Reserve notice
• What's at stake: The proposal would increase the credit limit for bank insiders for the first time since 1979 and establish an indexing system to keep the threshold aligned with broader economic growth.

The central bank extended the deadline for comments on Regulation O by one month, to Nov. 4.

Fed's Cook downplays systemic risks posed by private credit -Federal Reserve Gov. Lisa Cook said Thursday that private credit so far does not pose an adverse risk to financial stability, but the potential risks of the growing market is something that makes her "sleep with one eye open."

• Key takeaway: Federal Reserve Gov. Lisa Cook said the central bank now has more data to assess developments in the private credit sector and that, so far, there is no indication of significant risk.
• Expert quote: "We still don't think that [private credit] is having a big effect on financial stability, but we still want to ascertain that." — Federal Reserve Gov. Lisa Cook
• What's at stake: Bank ties to the private credit sector have grown substantially over the past decade and are likely to continue growing as proposed changes to bank capital rules could make it more attractive for banks to finance or hold certain private credit-related assets.  

Federal Reserve Gov. Lisa Cook said Thursday that private credit does not seem to pose additional risks to the financial system at the moment, but added that more information about the opaque market is needed.

Fiserv, FiCare clash over passcodes in card-freeze fight | American Banker

• Key insight: Fiserv's own lawyers say the company's system can unfreeze a card flagged for fraud before the call reaches an agent.
• What's at stake: Criminals are taking advantage of this system to reactivate stolen cards, a credit union says.
• Supporting data: Fiserv serves more than 3,330 credit unions.

Overview bullets generated by AI with editorial review.

New CDFI info collection would eliminate race as criteria -— A Treasury proposal would remove race and ethnicity from the criteria community development financial institutions can use to establish a targeted market population, a move that could affect institutions serving minority communities. The Treasury Department is proposing a new regime of information collection for the Community Development Financial Institution Fund that excludes race as a criteria for targeted market populations — underserved communities that CDFIs have been explicitly certified to serve in the past.

• Key insight: Treasury would no longer recognize African American, Hispanic, Pacific Islander, Filipino and Vietnamese populations as targeted market types for community development financial institution certification. 
• What's at stake: The proposal comes as the Trump administration has criticized the CDFI Fund as promoting what officials have called "woke" ideologies.
• Forward look: Treasury is seeking public comment on the proposed information collection changes through Nov. 30.

Musings about Muse, Meta's red-hot new AI agent | American Banker - Meta's new AI agent, Muse, took just 10 days to reach No. 1 on the U.S. free iPhone app chart. Its promise is easy to appreciate: An assistant that can shop and make phone calls on our behalf could relieve us of some everyday chores.

The US Economy “Is Running Hot,” Lots of Consumer Spending Growth, Lots of Inflation. The Bond Market Sees it Too - by Wolf Richter -Adjusted for inflation, lots of inflation, consumer spending in August rose by 0.55% month-to-month and by 2.6% year-over-year, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis today. Americans have been out there spending despite soaring gasoline prices, AI-will-kill-us-all-mongering by AI companies, geopolitical chaos on the front pages… you name it, we have it – but no problem, the spending must go on, including or especially on discretionary experiences, such as restaurants meals and lodging, and on discretionary goods, such as recreational vehicles. Not adjusted for inflation, consumer spending in August jumped by 0.86% from July, and by 6.1% year-over-year, to an annual rate of $22.3 trillion (red in the chart below). These are big growth numbers, and we’ll see some bigger ones below, but there was a lot of inflation too. This is how an economy “is running hot” – lots of spending growth and lots of inflation. Of the total amount spent:

• 69% got spent on services; half of that went to healthcare services (not including healthcare products) and housing combined.
• 11% got spent on durable goods, such as motor vehicles, recreational vehicles, computers, furniture, appliances, etc.
• 20% got spent on nondurable goods, such as pharmaceutical products, food, gasoline, clothing, footwear, household supplies, etc.

Food prices and gasoline prices are constantly in people’s faces, and when they rise, they piss people off, but they account for only a relatively small part of total consumer spending. Spending on food and beverages at stores accounted for 7.0% of total consumer spending (dotted blue line). Gasoline and other energy goods accounted for 2.3% of total consumer spending, up from a share of 1.9% before prices began to spike (double green line). This relatively small share of total spending is in effect why the recent gasoline price spikes, and the 2021-2022 food and gasoline price spikes didn’t derail the economy. About inflation adjustments: Price changes for each good and service that is in the consumer basket are tracked at that level, and spending on these goods and services is then adjusted for inflation by the price changes for those specific goods and services. For example, if gasoline prices spike by 10%, “real” spending on gasoline is adjusted for 10% in price changes of gasoline. So, over time, gasoline sales adjusted for inflation are nearly flat, with seasonal variations and a slight downward trend, roughly paralleling gasoline consumption in gallons. And if rents rise 2%, “real” spending on rents is adjusted for 2% in price changes. Then the price changes for each product are combined and form the overall inflation rates. So to see where people actually spend their money, we need to look at nominal spending, not adjusted for inflation. Spending on services, not adjusted for inflation rose by 0.50% month to month and by 5.9% year-over-year in August. Spending on services is dominated by housing, which accounts for 17.9% of total consumer spending, and by healthcare services (includes health insurance but not healthcare goods), which account for 17.3% of total spending. Spending rose in:

• Housing and utilities: +0.26% monthly; +4.5% YoY (blue in the chart below).
• Healthcare services: +0.39% monthly; +6.8% YoY (red).
• Other services: +1.03% monthly; +4.9% YoY (double gold).
• Financial services and insurance (not including health insurance): +0.48% monthly; +7.6% YoY (big dotted green).
• Food services and accommodation: +1.31% monthly; +5.2% YoY (small dotted dark-blue).

Spending on nondurable goods spiked by 1.5% in August from July and by 5.9% year-over-year. The big driver was gasoline due to the price spike. If the price spikes are taken into account, “real” spending on gasoline (adjusted for price changes of gasoline) declined month-to-month and year-over-year. Pharmaceutical products and medicines dominate the “Other nondurable goods” category. In addition, this category includes games, toys, pet items, etc.; household supplies; personal care products; tobacco products; magazines, newspapers… Spending rose in:

• Other nondurable goods (mostly medical goods): +1.45% monthly, +4.5% YoY (red)
• Food and beverages bought at stores: +0.74% monthly, +2.4% YoY (blue)
• Clothing and footwear: +1.5% monthly, +6.9% YoY (double gold)
• Gasoline: 4.3% monthly, +24% YoY (big dotted green).

Spending on durable goods spiked by 2.0% month-to-month and by 6.4% year-over-year, not adjusted for price changes. “Recreational goods and vehicles,” the #2 category of durable goods, are what consumers buy to have a blast with. This is discretionary spending: ATVs, snowmobiles, motorhomes, travel trailers, dirt bikes; video, audio, and photographic equipment; computers, tablets, and software used for entertainment; bicycles; hunting, fishing, and camping equipment; musical instruments; recreational books; and other stuff. Spending rose in:

• Motor vehicles & parts: +2.5% month-to-month, +7.3% YoY (red).
• Recreational goods and vehicles: +2.3% monthly, +8.8% YoY (blue).
• Furnishings and household equipment: +1.2% monthly; +5.9% YoY (double gold).
• Other durable goods: +1.3% monthly; +6.4% YoY (big dotted green).

These dizzying rates of consumer spending growth amid lots of inflation show that the economy is “running hot.” That trend is also visible among businesses, where massive amounts of investments are now getting plowed into infrastructure; for businesses, inflation, as measured by the PPI, has been substantially hotter than for consumers. And of course, federal government deficit-spending has been running hot for years. This is a powerful mixture. And the bond market is seeing it too. The 10-year Treasury yield today rose to 5.30%, welcome back to the normal range, so to speak, highest since mid-2007, just before the Fed’s interest rate repression and QE began to systematically demolish the bond market.

United in debt: America has become a nation of fake rich people  -The U.S. now functions as two distinct, fully realized nations occupying the same geographic coordinates. One exists in concrete and brick, where citizens drive 20-year-old sedans and buy generic eggs. The other exists within a six square-inch, forever-vibrating rectangle, where every third twenty-something is a lifestyle curator living a life built on reckless financial decisions. A recent report by Empower, a major financial services company based in Colorado, found that 24 percent of Gen Zers experience intense pressure to display material wealth on social media, even as 41 percent of all Americans don’t consider themselves financially well-off. The math is simple, brutal and undeniable. Millions of broke people spend borrowed money to convince other broke people they live like oil barons. Walk into a cafe in any major city on a Tuesday morning. The line stretches out the front door with men and women waiting to pay $7 for an oat milk latte. The transaction takes three seconds via a plastic card. The coffee is gone in ten minutes. The debt remains on the balance sheet for 30 days at a 28 percent annual percentage rate. The person holding the cup takes four photos of the foam art before taking a single sip, uploading the image to an audience of 700 acquaintances doing the exact same thing three blocks away. It’s entirely absurd and slightly insane, but this is modern-day America, where a sandwich that costs more than most can reasonably afford becomes a status symbol for a sick, performative culture. The physical economy relies on the illusion of endless prosperity. A $400 T-shirt made of standard cotton moves off the rack because it contains a small but highly visible logo. The owner wears it to a sit-down dinner, paid for with a buy-now-pay-later app that splits a $120 pasta bill into four easy installments due every two weeks. This dynamic transcends traditional political divisions completely. The left-leaning urbanite rents a $5,000-a-month luxury apartment with faux-hardwood floors and floor-to-ceiling windows, ignoring the fact that the building was constructed with thin drywall and plastic plumbing. A guy on the right buys an $80,000 four-wheel-drive pickup truck with a diesel engine, drives it exclusively to a suburban business district, and wonders why he bought it in the first place. Both sides stare at each other with mutual disdain, completely oblivious to the reality that they are bound by the exact same addiction to financial self-harm. The online ecosystem adapts instantly to these internal contradictions. When the burden of fake wealth becomes too heavy to maintain, the internet invents a new aesthetic trend to monetize the fatigue. Enter “de-influencing,” a movement in which content creators post videos telling followers which $80 moisturizer or $50 water tumbler they should not buy. The creators then link to alternative products in their profile bio, earning a 5 percent commission on every budget-friendly replacement sold. The consumer buys three cheaper items to celebrate saving money versus the expensive one. Vacation planning follows the exact same logical trajectory. Social media feeds in June and July feature an unending stream of Mediterranean coastlines, infinity pools, and airport lounge access passes. In reality, a significant portion of these trips exist purely as high-interest liabilities on a credit card statement. A seven-day excursion to Europe becomes a three-year financial commitment. Travelers spend six hours posing on a rocky beach to capture three photos with optimal lighting, then spend the rest of the afternoon in the hotel room arguing with their partners about the cost of room service. The digital self lives in a perpetual golden age of high design, fine dining, endless leisure, and oceans of delusion. The physical self eats sodium-rich packaged ramen over a sink in a studio apartment, wiping away their tears while receiving text alerts about a low bank balance. We have successfully split human consciousness into two separate entities: the brand manager who posts from the beach, and the laborer who works overtime to pay off the plane ticket and purchase more ramen. The entire enterprise functions because everybody understands the rules of the game and nobody wants to be the first person to stop playing. Admitting that you can’t afford to shop at 7-Eleven, let alone a daily $7 beverage or a weekend getaway, feels like a personal failure in a society that measures human value by visual consumption. So the country keeps marching forward, one installment plan at a time. United in debt, divided by algorithms, and perfectly styled for the camera.

Mass layoffs, trucking bankruptcies mount amid diesel price shock - American trucking firms have been filing for bankruptcy and laying off hundreds of workers as logistics businesses struggle amid soaring fuel costs. The price of diesel stood at $6.39 as of Thursday, per AAA, up more than 70 percent from $3.71 at the same time last year and down only slightly from the $6.53 all-time high reached last week. According to the latest “Freight Distress Report” from the supply chain-focused publication FreightWaves, the spike has coincided with signs of distress from within the logistics industry. Last month, at least eight large trucking outfits filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, including major players like Xoco Transport and Globemaster. And the wider freight economy is also seeing a spike in layoffs, with reductions across well-known transportation and logistics firms, including 230 jobs at 4XH Logistics in Texas and 106 positions at Capstone Delivery in California. Newsweek has attempted to contact the companies via email for comment. Layoffs and bankruptcies are occurring nationwide, with several cases emerging in California and Texas in recent weeks. Some of the eight large trucking outfits’ Chapter 11 claims reviewed by Newsweek revealed high debt-to-asset ratios alongside lingering financial difficulties, rather than pointing directly to diesel prices as a factor. Chapter 11 claims aim to restructure debt and allow a company to keep operating during the process. The Texas-based carrier Xoco Transport reported a $609,000 net loss for the first seven months of 2026, along with $2.2 million in assets and $3.3 million in liabilities. The broader freight sector has also seen a wave of layoffs amid the fuel surge, with FreightWaves reporting close to 2,000 layoffs across delivery firms, manufacturers, and packaging companies over the past few weeks. This includes employees at the Texas-based 4XH Logistics LLC, a delivery partner for Amazon, which in early September said it would be letting go of 230 workers in San Antonio. In an interview with the San Antonio Business Journal, the company’s CEO said that the move was due to the loss of its contract with Amazon. Capstone Delivery’s 106-person layoff in California is scheduled to take effect November 21. Neither the companies seeking bankruptcy protection nor those implementing headcount reductions directly blamed rising diesel for their decisions. But economist Willy C. Shih has noted that rising fuel costs will be hard for any business to bear, especially those in the logistics sector. Shih, a professor of management practice at Harvard Business School, said it could now cost around $3,000 for a truck to haul goods cross-country, based on $6.50-per-gallon diesel and around seven miles per gallon. “If you think that isn’t going to get passed on to consumers, think again, because nobody else along the chain can afford to eat that increase in costs,” he told Newsweek. “These high diesel costs also come at harvest time, and farm machinery all rely on diesel. Farmers were already struggling, and this just piles more troubles upon that crucial sector to the American economy.

Red-dyed diesel made available to lower fuel prices—where you can buy it - The White House is weighing an unusual plan to help ease soaring diesel costs, but some states have already moved to expand access to what is considered a significantly cheaper fuel source: red-dyed diesel. According to Reuters, the Trump administration is considering regulatory relief that would allow broader sales of red-dyed diesel, a fuel traditionally reserved for agricultural and other off-road uses.  On Sunday, President Donald Trump told a Fox News reporter that he is “very ​seriously” considering a ban on diesel exports. “That can oftentimes lead to a little bit of an increase in gasoline for cars, so we’re looking at it very seriously. We may do it,” he said.However, the red-dyed diesel proposal is being discussed as an alternative to a diesel export ban and could allow some buyers to avoid federal fuel taxes, helping lower costs amid today’s record-high diesel prices. Diesel is the backbone of much of the American economy, powering everything from freight trucks to farm machinery and construction equipment. When diesel prices rise, transportation companies often pass those costs along to customers, which often leads to higher prices for food and other essentials.Red-dyed diesel is chemically similar to conventional diesel fuel but contains a red dye that identifies it as fuel intended for off-road use. The fuel is commonly used in:

• Tractors and combines
• Timber harvesting equipment
• Construction machinery
• Irrigation pumps
• Other off-road vehicles and equipment

But because it is generally exempt from federal and state highway fuel taxes, its use on public roads is normally prohibited and can result in severe penalties. However, the White House proposal would expand the circumstances under which the fuel could be sold or used, potentially lowering costs for both consumers and businesses.“This measure can shave roughly 4 percent off today’s diesel bill through federal tax relief alone, and potentially 5–6 percent if additional state tax relief applies,” Maksim Sonin, an energy executive and a Visiting Scholar at Stanford’s Precourt Institute for Energy, told Newsweek. “That matters even more during the ongoing harvest season.”Red-dyed diesel is already widely sold throughout the U.S., though it is normally restricted to approved users and off-road uses.The fuel is commonly available from agricultural fuel suppliers and farm co-ops.Bulk fuel distributors and commercial fueling depots likewise sell this type of diesel, as do some truck stops and fuel stations across the country.  However, buyers generally must certify that the fuel will be used for qualifying off-road purposes.But if the White House acts, all that could change.“It’s the one lever they can pull without Congress and without fighting refiners over an export ban,” John Tirado, the founder of Summa Energy, told Newsweek.

US job growth undershoots expectations in September, but labor market remains stable (Reuters) - US job growth slowed more than expected in September and the nonfarm payrolls count for the prior two months was revised sharply lower, almost taking another interest rate hike from ​the Federal Reserve this month off the table. The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday also showed the unemployment rate increased to 4.2% last month from 4.1% in August as more people entered the workforce. The sharp ‌moderation in job growth likely does not mark a sudden deterioration in labor market conditions. Economists noted that payrolls have a tendency to underperform when the Labor Day holiday falls relatively late in September, as was the case this year. There have been no signs of a broad increase in layoffs. First-time applications for unemployment benefits have been hovering at 57-year lows amid robust corporate profit growth and resilient domestic demand. Economists said the report reaffirmed the labor market's "low-hire, low-fire" state and likely had no impact on near-term monetary policy, with inflation remaining the key focus. "This is a disappointing jobs report and a reminder that the low-hire, low-fire labor market never went away," said ​Olu Sonola, head of US economics at Fitch Ratings. "Weak job growth, a slightly higher unemployment rate, contained wage gains and downward revisions to earlier payroll estimates give the Fed little reason to keep an October rate hike on the table." Nonfarm payrolls increased ​by 29,000 jobs last month after a downwardly revised rise of 133,000 in August, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls would advance by 90,000 after ⁠a previously reported surge of 162,000 in August. Estimates ranged from as low as 35,000 to as high as 180,000. The survey of establishments showed the data for July was revised to show the economy shed 10,000 jobs, the second time this year that payrolls turned negative. All told, the ​economy added 60,000 fewer jobs in July and August than previously estimated. Volatility linked to the model the government uses to strip out seasonal fluctuations from the data likely accounted for both the meager payroll gains last month and the downward revisions to July and August. Job growth ​averaged 51,000 per month over the past three months compared to 23,000 during the same period in 2025. Economists estimated that the economy needs to create roughly 50,000 jobs per month to keep up with growth in the working-age population. The so-called break-even rate for payrolls reflects a sharp reduction in labor supply because of retirements and the Trump administration's immigration crackdown. Economists, however, said they expected growing headwinds from the US-Israeli war with Iran, including high energy prices and strained supply chains, would start disrupting the labor market by the end of this year and into 2027. Diesel prices are at record highs and could start to exert pressure beyond ​the transportation and agricultural sectors. Ongoing tariffs also are a source of concern, with an Institute for Supply Management survey on Thursday showing rising anxiety among manufacturers over the trade war with Canada. Financial markets initially lowered bets on a rate hike at the US central bank's October 27-28 ​meeting to 13% before lifting them to about 23%, little changed from Thursday, CME Group's FedWatch tool showed. The odds of further monetary policy tightening had already been slashed from about 70% at the start of the week by cooler-than-expected inflation readings for August and July. The Fed last month raised its benchmark overnight interest ‌rate by 25 basis ⁠points to the 3.75%-4.00% range, the first hike in three years, and flagged further increases in borrowing costs ahead. With inflation still above its 2% target, economists continued to expect a rate hike in December. Stocks on Wall Street were higher. The dollar eased against a basket of currencies. US Treasury yields rose after initially falling. Healthcare continued to account for the bulk of the job growth, adding 17,000 positions, a figure that was well below the average monthly gain of 33,000 in the past 12 months. Those job increases occurred in ambulatory healthcare services and at hospitals. Employment in nursing and residential care facilities dropped by 9,000 positions, which could be related to the termination of Temporary Protected Status for hundreds of thousands of Haitian immigrants. Construction payrolls increased by 11,000, lifted by hiring of nonresidential specialty trade contractors. That could be related ​to the building of infrastructure to support AI. The AI spending boom ​likely also accounted for the 9,000 rise in manufacturing jobs. ⁠Factory employment has risen 72,000 since bottoming out last December. Leisure and hospitality payrolls rose 10,000. There were modest job gains in the wholesale and retail trade sectors as well as the transportation and warehousing industry. Information payrolls dropped by 10,000, while the financial activities sector shed 7,000 positions. Professional and business services employment decreased by 9,000 amid a drop of 10,900 in temporary help services. The mining and logging industry lost ​jobs. Government payrolls contracted 17,000, mostly in local government, excluding education. The share of industries reporting job growth dropped to an 11-month low of 49.0% from 57.6% in August. Still, the average workweek was ​unchanged at 34.4 hours. Wage growth, however, ⁠cooled. Average hourly earnings edged up 0.1% after rising 0.3% in August. That lowered the annual increase in wages to 3.0% from 3.1% in August. Slower wage growth confirmed the labor market was not a source of inflation, but raised concerns over the sustainability of robust consumer spending and strong economic growth. Wage growth is lagging inflation, and consumers have been saving less and also dipping into their nest eggs to fund purchases. The smaller and more volatile household survey from which the unemployment rate is calculated showed employment increased by 406,000. That was, however, insufficient to absorb the 485,000 who ⁠entered the labor force, ​lifting the unemployment rate from 4.1% in August. The labor force participation rate rose to 61.8% from 61.6% in August. More people worked part-time for economic reasons, and long-term ​unemployment climbed. That raised the median duration of joblessness to near a 4-1/2-year high of 11.5 weeks from 11.4 weeks in August. But a broader measure of unemployment, which includes people who want to work but have given up searching and those working part-time because they cannot find full-time employment, fell to 7.6% from 7.7% in August. "There is ​nothing in this report to suggest the jobs market is in real trouble, but its resilience probably isn't on as secure a foundation as GDP growth,"

Tennessee governor halts executions after Christa Pike survives lethal injection attempt - Tennessee officials were unable to put Christa Gail Pike to death Wednesday for a 1995 murder after administering two doses of a lethal drug. A death penalty expert said it was an unprecedented failure, and Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee halted the one remaining execution for the rest of the year. Pike, 50, was alive and loudly snoring after the attempted lethal injection and taken by ambulance from the prison, her attorneys said. She was being treated at a hospital, but they said they hadn’t been told about her condition. She had been scheduled for execution at 10 a.m. Wednesday for the killing she committed at age 18 and would have been the first woman executed in Tennessee in more than 200 years. An appeals court stopped the lethal injection just an hour before it was to start and hours later the U.S. Supreme Court overturned that stay. Officials gave Pike two doses of pentobarbital, her attorneys said in court filings late Wednesday. Gov. Bill Lee said in a statement that he has ordered “a comprehensive, third-party review to determine exactly what occurred” and that the remaining scheduled execution will not take place this year. “Carrying out a lawfully imposed sentence is among the State’s most serious responsibilities, and the people of Tennessee expect it to be done in a manner that is not only legal and constitutional, but is effective,” he said. The Tennessee Department of Correction said in a statement that it “followed every step of the State’s lawful, established execution protocol approved by the Attorney General’s Office.” The state’s execution protocol calls for a secondary set of drug syringes to be administered “if the inmate is not deceased” after the first set. It does not spell out what happens if the subject is alive after the second set. Robin M. Maher, executive director of the Death Penalty Information Center, said what Pike experienced is “singular and unparalleled.” Seven other people have survived medical problems due to an execution team’s failure to access a vein to administer lethal injection drugs, but no one has stayed alive after receiving the drugs used in such executions, she said.Media witnesses observing from a separate room said officials raised curtains to the execution chamber at 7:27 p.m., showing Pike strapped to a gurney. She described herself as at peace. But Pike remained awake and at one point raised her head and asked prison officials if her arm was supposed to feel that way. It was not clear what she was referencing.By 8:26 p.m., execution witnesses reported that the second dose of pentobarbital had been administered.Pike continued to be heard snoring behind the closed curtain until the microphone was cut off at 8:53 p.m. At that time there was an announcement to escort media witnesses out of the area.Lawyers for Pike filed an emergency motion late Wednesday to the Tennessee Supreme Court seeking to immediately halt and stay the execution, saying she was in “unnecessary agony” and it was violating her right to be executed free of cruel and unusual punishment. They also filed motions in the Sixth Circuit court and a district court.It was the second time this year that Tennessee has been unable to carry out an execution: In May state officials called off the lethal injection of Tony Carruthers, who was convicted of kidnapping and killing three people in 1994, after executioners tried and failed for over an hour to place an IV to administer pentobarbital.More than half of Americans are reading below a 6th grade level: study - More than half of American adults read below a sixth-grade level, a record high number that experts call a “silent crisis” affecting the economy, health care and communities nationwide. About 54 percent of Americans ages 16 to 74 read at or below the equivalent of a sixth-grade level – around the age 11 or 12 – according to data cited by the Barbara Bush Foundation for Family Literacy. That amounts to around 130 million people. “We call it a silent crisis because it’s not talked about that much,” Andrew Roberts, president of the Barbara Bush Foundation for Family Literacy, told “Aging Untold,” a 30-minute weekday talk show from Gray Media exploring the realities and challenges of aging in America. The issue can show up in everyday situations, including navigating health care, understanding paperwork and finding employment. Someone with limited literacy skills may have trouble understanding a medical consent form, navigating a telehealth system or following written instructions. In the Kansas City, Missouri, area alone, for example, about 680,000 adults have low literacy skills, ranging from being able to understand only basic words and phrases to having little or no understanding of written language, according to “Aging Untold.” Counties with the lowest literacy rates often also face higher poverty, poorer health outcomes and less economic mobility, according to the foundation. Literacy rates also vary by region, with the Midwest and Northeast generally reporting higher, more consistent levels, while the South and West see greater disparities between counties. The economic consequences can also be significant. People with limited reading skills can face difficulty finding well-paying jobs, while low literacy has also been linked to higher health care costs. ProLiteracy, an adult-literacy nonprofit, estimates that as much as $238 billion in annual health care costs are associated with low adult literacy skills, in part because people may misunderstand treatment instructions or preventive-care information. The problem can also carry from one generation to the next. “When we see adults with low literacy, children raised in those households, they have a 72 percent chance of growing up with low literacy themselves,” Roberts said. For Bernadette Graves, 61, the struggle with literacy followed her well into adulthood. She said she made it through 12th grade without learning how to read, according to “Aging Untold.” “Couldn’t read. Still can’t spell,” Graves said. “They were just passing us back then.” Graves spent 20 years working as a custodian and cafeteria server, but does not know what her earning potential might have been if she had learned to read earlier. She eventually enrolled at Literacy KC, an adult education program in Kansas City, that serves about 2,000 adults each year, according to the report. Graves began the program reading around a kindergarten or first-grade level. She now reads at a fifth-grade level, according to “Aging Untold.” “It feels good. I keep books in my car so if I’m waiting on somebody I can read,” Graves said.

Education Department formally rescinds Title IX protections for LGBTQ students - The Education Department announced Monday it has formally rescinded the Biden-era Title IX interpretation that gave sex-based discrimination protections to students on the basis of sexual orientation and gender identity. Schools now must go back to the Title IX code as held under the previous Trump administration in 2020, which the department says will protect women’s sports. “Thanks to today’s action, the published Title IX regulations faithfully reflect court orders and Congressional intent — reducing confusion for parents, students, and educational institutions. We will continue to relentlessly champion equal opportunity for all Americans and hold accountable any school or college that violates the rights, privacy, or athletic opportunities of our women and girls,” Education Secretary Linda McMahon said. The Biden-era Title IX rule was already struck down in the court system after challenges from Republican states. And the administration has pursued its own definition since President Trump returned to office, making deals with schools such as the University of Pennsylvania to take transgender athletes out of their women’s programs. Opponents of the move say it will harm transgender athletes and weaken protections for sexual assault victims. “Sexual harassment and assault continue to be pervasive in schools and, to the fullest extent possible, we should be working to enforce the laws that protect student survivors of sexual violence. Yet, Education Secretary Linda McMahon and the Trump administration have decided to ignore what survivors need, instead weaponizing Title IX to attack trans students,” said Shiwali Patel, senior director of education justice at the National Women’s Law Center.

DOJ says UCLA law school illegally used race in their admissions - The Department of Justice (DOJ) on Thursday accused the law school at the University of California, Los Angeles, (UCLA) of discriminating against white and Asian students in its admissions process. The Trump administration has made similar allegations against the admissions processes at UCLA’s medical school and the law schools at Duke University and the University of California, Berkeley.“Like many of its peer institutions, UCLA Law School runs a two-tiered admissions system whose academic bar for acceptance shifts up or down depending on the color of your skin,” said Harmeet K. Dhillon, the assistant attorney general of the DOJ’s Civil Rights Division, in a statement.“The use of race as a thumb on the scale that helps or disadvantages any student is illegal,” Dhillon continued. “The Department will continue to enforce equal treatment under the law everywhere — including in our nation’s law schools.” The DOJ said its analysis found the UCLA School of Law rejected white and Asian students who applied with the same LSAT scores as Black and Hispanic students it admitted for incoming classes in 2023, 2024 and 2025. The UCLA School of Law disputed the accusation in a Thursday statement, saying the school was “committed to making admissions decisions in compliance with all applicable laws.”“Students are admitted through a comprehensive, merit-based review process that considers each applicant’s achievements and experiences,” the statement continued. “We are confident in our process.”The Supreme Court limited the consideration of race in college admissions in its 2023 affirmative action decision. The Trump administration has cited this ruling in its broader efforts to crack down on allegations of discrimination at universities across the country.In April, a federal judge dismissed the DOJ’s civil rights lawsuit against Harvard University that accused the school of failing to address antisemitism on its campus.

Hegseth orders halt to civilian tenure hires at military service academies - Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth directed departments on Tuesday to halt appointments of civilian staff to tenured positions at U.S. military service academies and develop hiring plans that prioritize “institutional flexibility and faculty contribution to the warfighting mission.” “The primary purpose of our Military Service Academies (MSA) is to prepare the next generation of officers to lead the men and women of the greatest military on Earth. To ensure our educational institutions remain firmly focused on this warfighting mission, we must address the structural mechanisms that have allowed civilian academic norms to dilute our focus on lethality,” Hegseth said in a one-page memo titled “Refocusing the Military Service Academies on Warfighter Education.” The Pentagon chief said in the memo that granting tenure to civilian faculty “often leads to academic stagnation, faculty complacency and institutional inability to adapt to emerging needs.” “Additionally, it contributes to curriculum that drifts from the mission of educating our warfighters to the research priorities of the tenured academics,” Hegseth said. CBS News reported in July the Pentagon was weighing a move to end civilian tenure at military academies. The U.S. has five service academies: West Point in New York, U.S. Naval Academy in Maryland, Air Force Academy in Colorado, Coast Guard Academy in Connecticut and Merchant Marine Academy in New York. The Coast Guard Academy resides under the Department of Homeland Security, while the Merchant Marine Academy is under the Department of Transportation’s Maritime Administration. West Point said it has 27 percent civilian faculty. The U.S. Naval Academy has 217 tenured civilian professors and 67 civilian professors on tenure track. An Air Force Academy “Academic FAQ” page previously said the school has about 70 percent military instructors and 30 percent civilians. It wasn’t immediately clear whether currently tenured faculty would be impacted by the order. The memo is part of Hegseth’s push to overhaul military service academies. The Pentagon chief said last year his goal was to get “woke” civilian professors out of the institutions and replace them with military personnel. “We need more uniformed members going back into West Point, the Air Force Academy, the Naval Academy as a tour to teach with their wisdom of what they’ve learned in uniform instead of just more civilian professors that came from the same left-wing, woke universities that they left and then try to push that into service academies,” the Defense secretary said during his confirmation hearing. Earlier this year, Hegseth rolled out a new task force — led by Anthony Tata, undersecretary of Defense for personnel and readiness — to conduct a review of U.S. war colleges to make sure they are “effective” and focused on critical national security issues. Some of those schools being assessed are Army War College, National Defense University, the Naval War College, Marine Corps University and the Air War College. “We want military leaders who are critical thinkers that have studied the principles on which our founding fathers established this republic, and that are educated and prepared to win wars,” Hegseth said in March.

Calls grow for independent Cornell investigation after alleged frat gang rape Cornell under a microscope over handling of frat house rape investigation - Cornell University is facing angry calls from politicians, activists and the general public demanding more transparency over how it handled the investigation into a former student’s alleged gang rape. Cornell is under a microscope after a lawsuit was filed in September alleging the 20-year-old student was raped by seven men at a fraternity house in October 2024. The university has defended its actions in the investigations that ensued, saying 12 hearings were held, and suspensions and expulsions were issued as punishments for some of the accused. But advocates — and more than one elected official — say the school failed the student, who dropped out of college due to the trauma of the alleged assault. “Because she lost her access to her education, and this went unaddressed for so many years until some brave student journalists brought it back to the forefront. We already know that Cornell failed its Title IX obligations,” said Maha Ibrahim, director of Gender-Based Violence Law Programs at Equal Rights Advocates. “And lastly, just because Cornell had a Title IX process doesn’t tell us anything and actually may tell us more about how they failed than how they succeeded or attempted to succeed,” Ibrahim added. The lawsuit filed by Jane Doe, who has chosen to remain anonymous, named Cornell as one of the parties responsible due to its alleged failure to support her during the process, investigate the issue properly or take appropriate action. Doe says that on Oct. 20, 2024, she was raped by seven men after she was given drugs and alcohol at the Chi Phi frat house. Cornell recently came out with a FAQ sheet, explaining it held 12 Title IX hearings into the alleged attack. Cornell said immediately temporary suspensions and other restrictions were given to the men, and the Chi Phi frat has remained closed on campus since the incident. The university denied an online rumor the men were only made to write an essay as a disciplinary measure, saying that some received permanent expulsion but that due to federal privacy laws it could not reveal the exact punishments.

Hochul appoints Letitia James as special prosecutor in Cornell sexual assault case - New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) announced Thursday evening she has appointed state Attorney General Letitia James (D) as special prosecutor to investigate a former Cornell University student’s allegations that she was raped at a fraternity house near the Ivy League’s campus in October 2024. The governor said in a statement shared on social media that “newly released information” prompts “serious questions” about the initial investigation into this case led by the Cornell Police Department and the Tompkins County District Attorney’s Office.“For this reason, I have issued an executive order appointing Attorney General James as special prosecutor in this case,” Hochul said. “As special prosecutor, the Attorney General will investigate this incident and, if warranted, prosecute any offenses arising from that investigation and present evidence to a grand jury. James responded to the governor’s announcement, saying in a statement that her office does not take the responsibility of this investigation “lightly.”“As our state’s Chief Law Enforcement Officer, I stand ready to lead a process guided by the facts and the law,” she added. In a new lawsuit filed last month, the woman, identified as Jane Doe, said she was drugged and then raped over several hours by seven men at the Chi Phi fraternity house. She originally reported the incident to Cornell’s police department several weeks after the incident, but no criminal charges were filed. Tompkins County District Attorney Matthew Van Houten said charges were not filed because a six-page report provided by campus police to his office at the time did not include allegations that the woman was “drugged against her will or gang raped.”The woman’s attorneys have disputed this account and accused the initial investigation into this case of being inadequate. The young woman at the center of this case deserves to know that every fact will be examined and justice pursued,” Hochul said in her Thursday statement. “This action will ensure that the matter is fully and thoroughly investigated without conflict or bias, and handled independently with the rigor that this matter demands.”

Blood pressure medication recalled nationwide under FDA’s Class II risk level – If you are one of millions of Americans taking medication to lower blood pressure, you may want to check the label. Inventia Healthcare Limited, based in Mumbai, India, is voluntarily recalling 13,567 bottles of chlorthalidone tablets that may not dissolve properly, potentially lowering the dosage that gets absorbed by the body. The bottles of 25 mg tablets being recalled nationwide have the batch number RISA24002 and an expiration date of March 2027.The chlorthalidone recall follows Inventia Healthcare’s June recall of 11,460 bottles of blood pressure medication that also failed to properly dissolve.The latest recall was initially announced Sept. 3, and, on Sept. 17, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) assigned it a Class II risk level, or a situation in which a product may cause “temporary or medically reversible adverse health consequences.” The risk level is not as serious as a Class I recall, used for recalls when a product can cause serious health consequences or death, such as the August recall of 1.6 million cartons of eggs that were potentially tainted with salmonella.

Maternal depression tied to higher risk of special educational needs in kids - Children whose mothers had depression during pregnancy are at higher risk of having special educational needs that can’t be attributed solely to antidepressant exposure, according to a study led by researchers from the University of Glasgow and published yesterday in PLOS Medicine.Antidepressant use during pregnancy is on the rise, though the long-term effects of these drugs on child development is unclear. At the same time, having untreated depression during pregnancy carries its own risks, making it challenging for women to make informed decisions about medication use during pregnancy. For the study, the researchers analyzed the health and education records of more than 167,000 children born in Wales from 2009 to 2016 and followed through 2022. They looked for indications of special educational needs, including learning and communication difficulties, autism, and behavioral or emotional difficulties, as well as attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder. They also examined maternal depression diagnoses and antidepressant prescriptions. Of the roughly 167,000 children, 12,630 (7.6%) were exposed to untreated depression in utero, 7,005 (4.2%) were exposed to antidepressant-treated depression; and 5,996 (3.6%) were exposed to antidepressant medication without a recorded depression diagnosis. After accounting for factors like maternal age, smoking, and the child’s sex, the researchers estimated that 20% of children exposed to neither depression nor antidepressant medications would have a special education need. That estimate rose to 23.6% among children whose mothers had depression but were not prescribed antidepressants.  Among children whose mothers had both depression and an antidepressant prescription, the estimate was 26.5%. The estimate was similar for children whose mothers had an antidepressant prescription but no recorded depression diagnosis: 26.3%. Overall, the researchers found that antidepressant exposure was associated with a 6.3% rise in special education needs in those not exposed to maternal depression and an additional 2.9% increase in children exposed to maternal depression. The team concluded that mothers with depression have a higher risk of giving birth to children with special educational needs, regardless of whether they were exposed to antidepressants, but that medication may carry an additional risk. “We showed that if women with depression took antidepressants while pregnant, their children were more likely to have special educational needs, but it was only a very slight increase and may have been due to them having more severe depression, rather than an effect of the medicine,” said the authors in a PLOS press release.The study cannot show that antidepressants caused the additional risk, say the researchers. The team had no measure of depression severity, and women prescribed medication may have had more severe symptoms than those who were not prescribed medication. Previous research has linked maternal depression with special educational needs. “Specifically, previous systematic reviews and meta-analyses have found that untreated poor perinatal maternal mental health is associated with adverse neurodevelopment in school-age and adolescent children,” write the researchers.The records also lacked information on other potentially relevant factors, including alcohol use and postpartum depression.  Hence, the findings do not provide a reason to stop antidepressant treatment during pregnancy, say the researchers. “Our study indicates that exposure to antidepressants during pregnancy could serve as a marker for additional support being needed at school,” they said. But, “Our results don't suggest that women should automatically stop taking their antidepressants because depression can harm both mother and baby if not treated,” they added. “Women should always speak to their doctor about what is best in their situation.”

Infections at birth substantially increase the risk of autism and intellectual disability, study finds - Kids born with certain congenital infections are approximately three times more likely to be diagnosed as having autism, according to a study out of the Karolinska Institutet in Stockholm, Sweden. These children were also more likely to have an intellectual disability compared to those born without an infection, with the risk of severe to profound intellectual disability being up to 30 times higher than the general population.  The study, published last week in JAMA Pediatrics, included 3.7 million people born in Sweden from 1987 through 2021. Of this group, 975 had congenital infections caused by pathogens that can cross the placenta, leading to maternal-fetal transmission, though spread can also happen during or after birth. Collectively, these are called TORCH infections, standing for toxoplasmosis, other infections, rubella, cytomegalovirus (CMV), and herpes simplex virus. Researchers compared kids born with a TORCH infection to their siblings, as well as the general population, finding similar results in the frequency and severity of poor neurodevelopmental outcomes. The authors say this suggests these outcomes cannot be explained solely by genetic factors shared within families. “In contrast to studies of common maternal infections, where associations with autism are largely explained by familial confounding, our findings persisted after sibling adjustment,” the study authors wrote. “Nevertheless, absolute risk estimates indicate that these exposures accounted for only a small proportion of autism cases in the population.” This is because TORCH infections remained rare in the children studied.Another important finding is that TORCH infections are associated with poorer academic performance later in life. The authors said this indicates that TORCH illness might cause more subtle cognitive differences. Though they note that the study's results on sibling academic performance were imprecise, limiting any conclusions that can be drawn. The magnitude of the association between a TORCH infection and adverse neurodevelopmental outcomes was striking, said Megan Pesch, MD, MS, the medical director of the Center for Autism and Developmental Disabilities at Henry Ford Health, a Michigan-based medical system. Pesch, who did not contribute to the study, praised its overall design. But she noted that the researchers focused on clinically identified TORCH infection. In some cases, that parameter may exclude kids with asymptomatic infections, so Pesch cautioned that the risk estimates in the study's findings may not apply to every TORCH-affected infant.CMV was responsible for roughly half of all observed cases of a TORCH infection in the study. This isn't too surprising, as an association between autism and the virus, which belongs to the herpes family, has been suspected for decades.  But previous studies exploring that relationship were small and uncontrolled, said Mark Schleiss, MD, pediatric infectious disease physician at the University of Minnesota School of Medicine.Schleiss did not contribute to the study but wrote an editorial to accompany its publication. Now that the association between CMV and autism has been "rigorously proven," Schleiss told CIDRAP News in an email that the results highlight the need for a CMV vaccine—and that people should also get vaccinated for rubella, another TORCH infection. "We need to acknowledge that one solution (for at least a subset of autism spectrum disorders) is to administer more vaccines," he said.

 COVID-19 and other respiratory illnesses increase in California – KCRA -- As fall approaches, respiratory illnesses are beginning to rise in California, with health officials noting increases in strep throat, common colds, and COVID-19 cases. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has reported that strep throat infections are increasing as children return to school. Common cold viruses are also on the rise, and while flu and RSV activity remain low nationwide, they are expected to increase in the coming weeks. California is also seeing a significant rise in COVID-19 cases. "It's a late-summer surge, later than last year, but this is the highest number of COVID cases that we've seen since last summer's surge, so the activity level right now is very high," said Dr. Dean Blumberg of UC Davis Health Pediatric Infectious Diseases. Blumberg said that in California the highest surges for the past two years have been in the summer, and he wasn't quite sure why. "In general, the first time you get COVID should be the worst," Blumberg said of symptoms. But a big exposure to the virus could make for a more severe illness. Overall, rates of the illness are "less severe" at this "waning end of the pandemic," he said. Earlier in the pandemic, COVID had a higher risk of hospitalization and death than influenza, but that has since flipped, Blumberg said. For those who are interested in antiviral treatment with Paxlovid, Blumberg recommended getting tested. "The earlier it's done, the more effective it is," he said, adding that people should go to an urgent care to get a prescription for antivirals if it might take their regular provider longer to get back to them. Paxlovid stops the virus from multiplying and "works best" for those at the highest risk of severe illness: people who are age 65 or older, immunocompromised or who are most at severe risk of complications. COVID-19 and flu vaccines are now available and recommended for everyone over the age of 6 months. RSV vaccinations are also available for infants, older adults, and pregnant women, who can receive the shot in late pregnancy. Blumberg said that antivirals for influenza shorten the duration of the illness.

Older adults hospitalized for COVID at increased risk for stroke, data show - COVID-19–related hospitalization is associated with an increased risk of both hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke, with the greatest danger soon after infection, per a study published last week on the preprint server Research Square.  The study, conducted from March 2020 through May 2022, also suggested that being vaccinated for COVID-19 is associated with a lower likelihood of stroke.  “COVID-19 requiring hospitalization confers an acute, time-limited increase in stroke risk, of a magnitude somewhat lower than that observed after pneumonia,” wrote the authors, from University of Haifa and Carmel Medical Center in Israel. “These findings support targeted cerebrovascular surveillance following hospitalization for respiratory infection.” The data have not yet been peer-reviewed.  Past research has indicated that a COVID-19 infection resulting in a hospital stay increases the risk of stroke. An observational study from 2022, for example, found that people hospitalized for COVID-19 were 17.5 times more likely to experience stroke.  For this preprint study, the scientists followed up with 1.2 million people aged 50 and older who had never had a stroke for roughly two years. They also matched 11,974 people who experienced stroke to 119,740 people in a control group without stroke, all from a large healthcare system in Israel. Of the cohort that experienced stroke, 9.3% recently had a COVID-19 infection. The scientists found that having a COVID-19 infection that required hospitalization was associated with a 23% increase in total (ischemic and hemorrhagic) stroke and a 22% and 18% higher risk in ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke, respectively.  This risk of stroke remained greatest in the three months following infection, at 35%. Those who were vaccinated had a 21% lower likelihood of experiencing a new stroke, which reinforces the findings of previous studies.  “The findings of this study indicate that SARS-CoV-2 infection may be associated with an increased risk of both ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke among middle-age and older adults,” the authors wrote. “However, this elevated risk appeared to be confined to the months immediately following infection and was primarily observed among individuals who were hospitalized with COVID-19.”

COVID may worsen existing health problems long-term, study suggests - More than one in 10 US adults reported that a preexisting health condition or concern got worse following a COVID-19 infection, according to a survey published last week on the preprint server medRxiv. Participants who reported worsening preexisting conditions also said they experienced challenges managing symptoms, completing daily activities, and accessing care. Long COVID is often described as new-onset symptoms that follow a COVID infection, but the condition also includes exacerbation of preexisting conditions. For the study, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, researchers led by a team from Eagle Global Scientific in Huntsville, Alabama, analyzed data from 2,227 adults who completed health questionnaires three, six, and 12 months after having COVID. Participants hailed from Arizona, Indiana, the Bronx, and north and northeastern Philadelphia, and data were collected from July 2023 to January 2025. Roughly 94% of respondents reported having at least one underlying condition before contracting COVID. Of all the participants, 263 (11.8%) said COVID had made at least one health condition or concern worse. When the researchers analyzed participants’ written descriptions of their worsened conditions, they found that nearly 32% reported a worsening respiratory concern, including asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), cough, and shortness of breath. Approximately 20% described worsening concerns in a general category that included symptoms like fatigue, headache, hair loss, and chills, and nearly 15% reported worsening musculoskeletal problems, chiefly body aches and pains. Anxiety and depression were among other frequently reported concerns, with nearly 12% saying these symptoms got worse after COVID infection. A very small number of respondents reported worsening symptoms related to endocrine conditions, including diabetes (three respondents) and thyroid concerns like hypothyroidism and Hashimoto’s (three). Most previous research has focused on new-onset conditions following COVID infection. “It is important to gather qualitative information on worsening conditions to better understand patients’ experiences and barriers to better health,” write the researchers. “The intersection between pre-existing conditions and Long COVID highlights distinct challenges with respect to symptom management, healthcare navigation, and participation in social and work settings.” The findings suggest that more research is warranted and that follow-up with healthcare providers may benefit those with worsened pre-existing conditions following COVID infection. “With the continued transmission of SARS-CoV-2 leading to new infections and reinfections, it will be important to continue assessing the long-term outcomes of those who experience exacerbated symptoms following their infection,” conclude the researchers.

Monoclonal antibody for COVID meets safety endpoints in phase 3 trial - US biopharmaceutical company Invivyd said this week that its investigational monoclonal antibody (mAB) for COVID-19 was found to be safe and tolerable in a phase 3 randomized clinical trial. The LIBERTY trial enrolled 210 US healthy adults to assess the safety and tolerability of VYD2311, an mAB designed for the prevention and treatment of COVID-19. Participants were randomly assigned 1:1:1 to receive either VYD2311, the mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine Comirnaty (Pfizer/BioNTech), or both. The co-primary endpoints included the proportion of participants experiencing a treatment-emergent adverse event (TEAE), injection site reaction (ISR), hypersensitivity reaction, or systemic adverse event (AE) in the first six days following dosing. The results showed 57% of participants who received VYD2311 experienced any TEAE, ISR, or hypersensitivity reaction, compared with 91% of those who received Comirnaty and 79% of participants who received both. Forty-four percent in the VYD2311 experienced a systemic AE, compared with 68% in the Comirnaty group and the 50% in the combined group. Fewer patients in the VYD2311 groups experienced any TEAE, ISR, or hypersensitivity reaction over the long-term (56 days post-administration)—61%, compared with 91.4% in the Comirnaty group and 83% in the combined group. Data from the trial also showed that combining VYD2311 with Comirnaty more than doubled recipients’ neutralizing titers. “The LIBERTY data provide us with high confidence in the profile of VYD2311,” Invivyd Chief Medical Officer Michael Mina, MD, PhD, said in a company press release. He added that the finding on the combination of VYD2311 and Comirnaty “suggests potentially broader, as yet unexplored, complementarity between Invivyd monoclonal antibodies and vaccines against COVID-19 and perhaps other pathogens.” VYD2311 is also being tested in the phase 3 DECLARATION trial, which is evaluating safety and efficacy in roughly 2,400 adults and adolescents with and without risk factors for severe COVID. Invivyd says it plans to pursue accelerated approval from the Food and Drug Administration based on data from the two trials.

Looking for vaccines? Vaccines.gov won’t help -- With the respiratory virus season ramping up, a federal website that helps people find nearby locations where they can get vaccines remains down.As initially reported by the Today Show, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC’s) Vaccines.gov site, which prompts visitors to type in a ZIP code to find nearby pharmacies offering vaccines, is not currently functioning and hasn’t been for at least a few days. When CIDRAP News reporters typed in multiple ZIP codes from different states, they all received the same error message: “Please enter a valid 5-digit ZIP code.”A note at the top of the page says “The functionality of this website may be impacted while it is being updated.” The Department of Health and Human Services did not respond to an email asking when the website is expected to work again.The website was initially launched in 2021 amid the nationwide rollout of COVID-19 vaccines to help direct Americans to nearby locations where they could receive shots. While it’s unclear how long the site has been down, Forbes reported similar error messages in December 2025.An archived version of the website contained links to official vaccine recommendations from the CDC, as well as resource links and an FAQ section. The current version only has the ZIP code search tool.Other options include VaccineFinder.org, the websites of pharmacy chains like Walgreens or CVS, or your local health department website.

US, EU object to UN declaration on future pandemics - Objections from the United States and European Union (EU) prevented United Nations (UN) member states from adopting a pact to help improve the world’s response to the next pandemic. At its second High-Level Meeting on pandemic prevention, preparedness and response (PPPR), member states met with the hopes of endorsing a declaration that would officially recognize the World Health Organization Pandemic Agreement, a plan that establishes the principles, strategies, and tools for better international coordination on PPPR. The agreement has been in the works since 2021 and was adopted by the World Health Assembly in May 2025.The declaration also calls for finalizing an annex to the agreement, the Pathogen Access and Benefit-Sharing System, which establishes a system for the timely sharing of pathogens with pandemic potential, enabling rapid development of diagnostics, treatments, and vaccines.“The Pathogen Access and Benefit Sharing System, under negotiation, is critical to unlocking the full potential of the WHO Pandemic Agreement. There is no time to waste,” UN Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed said in a WHO news release. But US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Erica Schwartz, MD, MPH, JD, said at the meeting that critical issues remain unresolved.“Whether it is the inclusion of divisive ideologies that lack definitional consensus or references to an unfinished negotiation on pathogen access and benefit sharing in an agreement that failed to achieve international consensus, the United States is not in a position to support this text,” Schwartz said, according to Health Policy Watch.  A statement from the EU representative said that while the declaration offers elements that will advance PPPR, it “also contains setbacks toward our crucial, shared goal: a safer, healthier world for all.”Among the “red lines” noted in the statement was technology transfer, which it said must be voluntary and on mutually agreed terms.“While the text before us today falls short of our expectations and goals, the EU remains fully and unreservedly committed to the important overarching objective of the Political Declaration,” the EU said.The declaration is expected to be taken up at a future UN General Assembly meeting.

Measles cases top 900 in Pennsylvania as CDC confirms 2nd death -  Pennsylvania now has more than 900 measles cases in the largest and fastest-growing outbreak in the nation. Per the state dashboard, there are now 903 measles cases, with 176 patients hospitalized for their infections and four measles-related deaths. The deaths were the first measles deaths in Pennsylvania in 35 years.A total of 114 people have been diagnosed as having measles in the past week, and 31% of case-patients are children. Less than 1% of patients in Pennsylvania are fully vaccinated.  In related news, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) website now lists two measles-related deaths for 2026. It is unclear which deaths the CDC’s listing is referring to. An asterisk on the dashboard page says, “This number is subject to change; CDC will update its reporting as additional information becomes available and relevant reviews are completed.” State leaders in Pennsylvania have been in a public back-and-forth with the CDC and Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. over the CDC’s lack of recognition of the states’ measles deaths.

Lancaster County reports Pennsylvania’s 5th measles-related death - Pennsylvania announced a fifth measles-associated death today in Lancaster County. Officials from the Department of Health (DOH) said the person was an unvaccinated resident of the county, which has become the nation’s measles hot spot. This is the third death recorded in Lancaster County. Both Jefferson and Mifflin counties have confirmed a single measles-related fatality.The DOH has not released any other information about the person for privacy reasons. To date, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has confirmed just two US measles deaths. Presumably they involve people in Pennsylvania, but the CDC has provided no details about the fatalities.In the past two days, the state has seen 40 new measles cases, raising the total to 943. Of those, 176 patients have been hospitalized, or about 19%. This is twice the national average of 9%, according to CDC data. Only four Pennsylvania cases have been recorded in vaccinated people. The recent outbreak is leading to a sharp uptick in measles mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccinations across the state. Throughout September, the DOH said more than 53,000 MMR doses were administered statewide, more than doubling the amount in a typical month (25,000). In August 2026, more than 49,000 MMR vaccines were administered. “People who have two documented doses of MMR do not need another. Adults who have only one dose, or who cannot find their vaccination records, should talk with a health care provider or pharmacist about getting vaccinated,” the DOH said.

Measles milestones: US closes in on 4,000 cases as Pennsylvania nears 1,000  - With three months left of 2026, the United States is closing in on a number of measles cases that would have been unheard of just a couple years ago. With 228 new cases logged this week, the country reached 3,886 infections, just 114 shy of 4,000, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC’s) weekly update today. It could top that milestone next week. And US cases could be more than double the 2025 total this month.The national wave comes as Pennsylvania, the nation’s hot spot, adds more than 100 new cases in the past week to its total for the year. More than two-thirds of the cases in the state involve adults. The CDC continues to tally just two measles-related deaths, and it has not specified where they occurred. Pennsylvania this week confirmed a fifth measles-associated death. The previous case involved two infants and two adults, but the Pennsylvania Department of Health (DOH) didn’t specify the age range for the latest death.Last year, the CDC confirmed that three people, including two children, died of measles. But this year, the agency has taken the unusual step of saying measles deaths must be confirmed by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). Some say this approach adds confusion, as NCHS data are typically used to assess long-term trends, not to confirm new deaths. It has also introduced a substantial delay in confirming the deaths in Pennsylvania.Today’s increase in US cases marks the eighth straight week of triple-digit increases in cases.The CDC today noted 42 outbreaks, two more than last week. Last year saw 48 measles outbreaks, defined as three or more related cases. Total cases for all of 2025 reached 2,289, which was the most since 1991 until the country surpassed that level in July. Cases in 2024 reached just 285.All but 18 of this year’s cases have been locally acquired, with the rest tied to international travel. Cases have been confirmed in 45 states plus New York City and Washington, DC.Of the 2026 cases, 18% involve children younger than 5 years, and 61% involve kids and teens. Nine percent of patients have been hospitalized, compared with 11% in 2025. Among all measles patients, 95% are unvaccinated or have an unknown vaccination status. In an update today, the Pennsylvania DOH added 34 new infections in the past two days and 102 cases in the past week, bringing the state’s 2026 total to 977. The state has the most cases for 2026.Lancaster County has by far the most cases in the state, with 391, followed by Mifflin (117), Chester (83), Jefferson (44), and Snyder (41). The CDC’s measles map lists 670 infections this year in South Carolina, though its outbreak—which totaled 997 cases for 2025 and 2026—was declared over on April 27. Utah is listed third on the CDC map, with 535 cases (eight new), followed by Wisconsin (207; 43 new), Texas (192), Virginia (178), Florida (148), and Ohio 144 (10 new).Of Pennsylvania’s total, more than 99% of cases involve unvaccinated or undervaccinated people. Of the 977 patients, 195 (20%, or about one in five) have required hospitalization. As opposed to the national trend, 69% of those infected have been adults.The DOH said, “The best protection against measles remains getting fully vaccinated. The MMR [measles, mumps, and rubella] vaccine, administered over two doses, boosts a person’s immune system and provides 97% lifetime protection.”Cases in other states are also climbing. The Wisconsin Department of Health Services today added 72 infections to its total, which has now grown to 243. Kentucky added 27 new cases and has 94 for the year. And Ohio’s health department lists 206 measles cases, which is 17 more than last week. Utah lists 527 cases, nine of which are new.

Kids hit hard in deadly Jerusalem measles outbreak, report reveals -  Scientists from the Ministry of Health in Jerusalem, Israel document unusually high numbers of measles cases and high case-fatality rates (CFRs) in children—especially in six neighborhoods populated with ultraorthodox Jews—during an outbreak in the city in 2025-26. Jerusalem is the largest city in Israel, having a population of roughly 1 million in 2025 (10.2% of the population of Israel), comprising about 62% Jewish and 38% Arab people. Of the Jewish population, an estimated 50.0% are ultraorthodox Jews. Uptake of the first measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) and the MMR plus varicella (MMRV) vaccines among children aged 1 to 6 years in Jerusalem fell from 94.7% in 2019 to 78.3% in 2024 and is the lowest in Israel, the authors noted. Coverage in April 2025 ranged from 99.4% among Arab children in East Jerusalem to 55.0% in six designated neighborhoods in central Jerusalem, which has a population of about 67,500, mostly ultraorthodox Jews. The researchers’ findings were published yesterday in Emerging Infectious Diseases. The reported measles infection rate in Jerusalem from April 2025 to March 2026 was 129.2 cases per 100,000 people—15 times higher than in the rest of Israel. Of 1,289 measles patients from April 2025 to March 2026 in Jerusalem (36.1% of the 3,574 cases reported in Israel), 11 children died, for a pediatric CFR of 0.9% in Jerusalem, compared with 0.3% elsewhere in the country, 0.3% to 5.3% in low- and middle-income countries, 0.2% to 0.3% in the United States, and 0.1% in Europe. The median age of children who died was 1.4 years; 72.7% were boys. Ten of the 11 children were otherwise healthy; nine of them were younger than 3 years, hadn’t received any vaccinations, and weren’t registered in mother/child health clinics. One 7-year-old child who died had a known serious congenital heart abnormality and had received a single MMRV dose at 1 year of age but didn’t receive the second dose. The overall measles death rate in Jerusalem was 1.1 deaths per 100,000 people, compared with 0.04 deaths/100,000 in Europe to 2.2 deaths/100,000 in Africa. Among children younger than 5 years in Jerusalem, the measles death rate was 7.7 deaths/100,000 but 80.1 deaths/100,000 in six neighborhoods populated by ultraorthodox Jews, and the measles-attributed death fraction compared with all-cause deaths the previous year was 47%. The authors noted a 2018-19 measles outbreak in Israel that sickened 4,290 people. Of those cases, 1,415 (33.0%) were in Jerusalem residents, and two people died, for a CFR of 0.1% and a measles death rate of 0.2 deaths/100,000. The median age of measles patients in Jerusalem was 3.1 years, and 70.7% of patients were younger than 5 years. Median household size was six, and 95.4% were unvaccinated against measles, while 4.6% received a single dose. Most patients (68.7%) lived in the six neighborhoods, home to 6.8% of Jerusalem’s under-5 age-group, but 71.9% of patients younger than 5 years in Jerusalem were from the ultraorthodox neighborhoods. Longer follow-up on children recovering from measles might identify additional cases of measles illness and death. The median household size of patients who died was seven, and one to three other family members reportedly had measles. The median time from the first measles symptom (fever or rash) to emergency department (ED) visit was eight days, and death occurred within 15 days. Six children were dead on arrival at the ED, and five were hospitalized for a median of 21 days; of them, three received extracorporeal membrane oxygenation. Eight patients (72.7%) had radiologic evidence of pneumonia on chest radiograph at admission, and six had blood cultures positive for pneumonia. Secondary infection due to immune suppression and immune amnesia might have contributed to severe outcomes, the researchers said. “Longer follow-up on children recovering from measles might identify additional cases of measles illness and death,” they wrote. “That explanation is supported by the large number of case-patients who had bacteremia among all fatal cases (6 of the 11 children who died), whereas 2 were infected with vaccine-preventable pathogens.” “Given the measles first-vaccine coverage of 55% in the 6 neighborhoods at the beginning of the outbreak, combined with MMR vaccine efficacy of 95% at 12 months, an estimated 47.7% of infants in each birth cohort were unprotected against measles,” the authors wrote. Given the measles first-vaccine coverage of 55% in the 6 neighborhoods at the beginning of the outbreak, combined with MMR vaccine efficacy of 95% at 12 months, an estimated 47.7% of infants in each birth cohort were unprotected against measles. The number of patients who were dead on arrival in the ED might reflect avoidance of healthcare in ultraorthodox communities due to distinct cultural, religious, and social considerations and insularity from government and secular media, the authors hypothesized. Other factors possibly contributing to vaccine hesitancy include mistrust of government, frustration with the COVID-related pandemic restrictions, and skepticism about the MMR and MMRV vaccines.

Most Americans confused about RFK Jr’s stance on measles vaccine as views dim of his ability to rein in outbreaks   -Most US adults either still mistakenly believe that Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. doesn’t recommend the measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine or are unsure of his stance, prompting doubt about his ability to address ongoing measles outbreaks across the country, according to a poll released today by the Annenberg Public Policy Center (APPC) at the University of Pennsylvania.In addition, most adults dismiss the Trump administration’s claim that childhood vaccines cause autism, and while half of poll respondents still hold the same unfavorable opinion of Kennedy they did in August 2025, significantly more say they view him very unfavorably.Americans’ uncertainty of where Kennedy stands on the MMR vaccine might in large part be traced back to Kennedy himself. He has rarely provided unflinching support for the highly effective vaccine.More than 1,900 adults responded to the poll, conducted from August 4 to 17. Of all participants, 31% correctly stated that Kennedy recommends the MMR vaccine, up from 23% in August 2025. But most indicated that Kennedy either doesn’t recommend the vaccine (29%) or are unclear about his position (40%).“Measles is highly contagious,” APPC research analyst Laura Gibson, PhD, said in the news release. “As we’ve seen this year, communities that don’t maintain 95% vaccination rates are at risk for outbreaks.”As of late last week, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) had confirmed 3,659 measles cases so far this year, compared with 2,289 for all of 2025. Nearly all of infected people (95%) were either unvaccinated or had an unknown vaccination status. Pennsylvania is still the nation’s hot spot, with 903 cases, 114 of them from the past week, including four deaths. While the CDC initially didn’t recognize any of the deaths, it now lists two.

Kennedy Touts AI Over Doctors At Industry-Backed Summit-Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on Sept. 29 touted artificial intelligence (AI) for people making medical decisions at a summit sponsored by AI companies, drawing criticism from some doctors. Kennedy, during an appearance at an event in Washington called the MAHA Summit, said he recently met with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman. Altman, he recalled, told him that “today it would be malpractice for a doctor to make a diagnosis or make a prescription without at least checking AI.” Kennedy went on to reiterate the goal of giving Americans access to their medical records and described how AI could summarize lengthy records. “You may have a medical record that’s a thousand pages long. You have six minutes with a doctor today. He’s not going to be able to review it, but the AI can. And … it can distill it,” Kennedy said. “It can give you a second opinion that is much better informed than any doctor in the country.” Kennedy, a harsh critic of public health advice on masks, vaccines, and other matters during the COVID-19 pandemic, said one benefit of AI is that it could correct such advice from presumed experts. “So it really has the capacity to dominate us to free us from medical tyranny,” he said. AI companies, including OpenAI and Anthropic, sponsored the summit in part. An OpenAI executive spoke during a session called “Building the AI Health Stack.” The comments came as President Donald Trump and other top administration officials promote AI adoption. Trump, who has said it is important for the United States to remain ahead of adversaries such as China on AI, also signed a voluntary accord with AI executives earlier Tuesday. AI provides answers to questions, including medical ones. Multiple lawsuits are pending in court over allegations that medical advice from AI led to catastrophic outcomes, including one from a Florida pastor against OpenAI, who alleged a chatbot instructed him not to seek medical attention when he developed symptoms such as severe dizziness. Kennedy’s remarks prompted criticism from some doctors. “AI is programmed to give you the current narrative pushed by ‘the experts’,” Dr. Jeffrey Dach, a Florida physician, wrote in a Sept. 30 post on X. “This means we get a rehash of the same lies and garbage we are being fed by the ‘experts’ and ‘authorities’ in government agencies captured by industry, and lies and garbage from the captured mass media. AI is merely a souped up search engine that hallucinates answers when it is lost.” Dr. Joe Pierre, a professor of psychiatry at the University of California San Francisco, noted that he ran Kennedy’s comments by ChatGPT, OpenAI’s chatbot. “If his claim is AI is more reliable than MDs when giving people medical advice, the evidence doesn’t establish that,” ChatGPT responded. “In fact, some of the best real-world evidence points in the opposite direction.” Kennedy noted downsides of AI, asking Vice President JD Vance, who appeared with him, to elaborate. “Most of the downsides are all related to models that were literally trained to hack into your computer,” Vance said. He said the best way to deal with the risks is to ensure companies are not shielded from product liability claims through regulations.

Measles outbreaks could leave thousands vulnerable to infectious diseases for years - Measles infections make people miserable for up to two long weeks, commonly causing dangerously high fevers, a painful sensitivity to light and, of course, a tell-tale red rash. Sufferers who escape without developing pneumonia, brain swelling, or other serious complications may believe the worst is over.  Yet the measles virus has only gotten started.The virus also damages the immune system, leaving people vulnerable to other infections for up to five years.“The rash and the fever, that’s the tip of the iceberg,” Michael J. Mina, MD, PhD, coauthor of two seminal studies in Science on the effect of measles on the immune system, told CIDRAP News. “The majority of the damage being done is under the surface.”The measles virus hijacks the immune system, using specialized memory cells to make copies of itself before blowing them up, Mina said. By deleting the body’s memory of earlier infections, measles causes a condition called “immune amnesia.”Without those memory cells, the body essentially forgets how to fight off infections it defeated before. That leaves people newly vulnerable to bacteria and viruses against which they were once protected, either through infection or vaccination.   Immune amnesia “happens in 100% of measles-infected individuals to some degree,” Mina said.The condition causes more harm in some people than others, depending on how much immune memory is deleted, which immune cells are destroyed, and a person’s age and underlying health, Mina said. A child whose immune system forgets how to fight off the common cold, for example, may suffer the sniffles and sneezes of last year’s respiratory viruses a second time. But a baby who loses the protection provided by whooping cough (pertussis) vaccines could end up hospitalized. A woman who loses her immunity against chickenpox, which causes much more severe disease in adults than in children, could develop pneumonia, Mina said.  With more than 6,000 measles infections in less than two years, immune amnesia could pose a real threat, Mina said.“We will see thousands of additional medical clinic visits,” said Mina, chief medical officer at Invivyd, a biotech company developing experimental treatments for measles. “If your child gets measles, you have to be looking over your shoulder” for years.  Children who are sick or malnourished before contracting measles are especially vulnerable to additional infectious diseases, said Boghuma Titanji, MD, PhD, an infectious disease specialist and assistant professor of medicine at the Emory University School of Medicine.  Titanji treated many children affected by immune amnesia in Cameroon, which has one of the highest rates of measles in the world. Those suffering from malnutrition were more likely to be hospitalized, she said.“After a child is admitted to the hospital for measles, they're more likely in the year or two that follows to be readmitted multiple times for a variety of viral, bacterial, or parasitic infections,” Titanji said.  In West Africa, children who survived measles were more likely to be later infected with malaria, Titanji noted. “In general, they were just more sickly children,” she said.  But immune amnesia isn’t limited to developing nations.Recent studies have found evidence of immune amnesia in wealthy countries with strong healthcare systems, including Germany, Israel, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. Children in these studies who had been infected with measles were more likely than others to need antibiotics or visit the doctor.“Immune amnesia is probably something that we're going to encounter” in the United States, said C. Mary Healy, MD, an associate professor of pediatrics and infectious disease specialist at Texas Children’s Hospital. “We’re on the cusp of finding out just how significant immune problems may be.”Doctors have known for hundreds of years that measles can lead to later waves of disease.After a measles outbreak, “there would be a shadow of death that would linger for months,” Mina said. “Measles outbreaks were extraordinarily predictive of the amount of death that would happen from all other infectious diseases in a community.”Yet doctors also reported sporadic cases in which measles survivors benefitted from a less aggressive immune system, Mina said.In the pre-vaccine days, doctors wrote letters to the editors of medical journals about children with autoimmune disorders—which result from a hyperactive immune system—whose disease went away after a measles infection, Mina said. Scientists have only recently begun to understand how measles causes immune amnesia.In 2012, animal studies showed the measles virus destroys immune cells called memory T cells and memory B cells, which help the body recognize other infections. Without memory cells to make antibodies, the immune system has no targeted defense against diseases the body has seen before. The authors of the study, published in PLOS Pathogens, coined the term immune amnesia.Even then, scientists believed that measles suppressed the immune system only for weeks or months. In 2015, Mina was part of a team of researchers who discovered that children take two to three years to recover antibodies lost to measles. Authors of a 2018 study based on a British medical database found increased rates of infections in measles survivors for up to five years.In 2019, Mina and his colleagues showed that measles survivors lose 11% to 73% of the antibodies they had before getting sick. It’s not possible to predict who will suffer the greatest harm.

Study identifies sepsis symptoms that may affect antibiotic timing - A study of patients with presumed community-onset sepsis found that certain presenting symptoms were associated with timely antibiotics, researchers report today in JAMA Network Open. For the study, a team of US researchers looked at data on nearly 30,000 adults who presented with community-onset bacterial sepsis at 67 hospitals belonging to the Michigan Hospital Medicine Safety Consortium-Sepsis Initiative. Prompt initiation of antibiotics (within three hours of hospital presentation if septic shock is absent) is considered critical for patients with sepsis, a leading cause of in-hospital death in the United States, and previous studies have found that certain patient and hospital characteristics are associated with antibiotic timing. But the study authors note that few studies have examined whether presenting symptoms affect the timing of antibiotic administration. “This is an important gap, as clinicians rely on presenting symptoms to diagnose infection and make decisions about antibiotic initiation,” they wrote. The cohort included 29,647 patients (median age, 71 years), of whom 21,957 (74%) received timely antibiotics. Among patients with and without hypotension, multivariable analysis found that prehospital fever was associated increased odds of timely antibiotics (with hypotension: adjusted odds ratio [aOR, 1.34]; without hypotension: aOR, 1.26), while gastrointestinal symptoms were associated with decreased odds of timely antibiotics (with hypotension: aOR, 0.84; without hypotension: aOR, 0.80). Urinary (aOR, 1.13) and respiratory (aOR, 0.91) symptoms were also associated with antibiotic timing for patients without hypotension. Among the entire study cohort, timely antibiotics were associated with reduced 30-day mortality (18.9% vs 21.0%; adjusted absolute difference, –2.10 percentage points). “These findings suggest that proactive screening for sepsis among patients with less obvious clinical presentations may promote timely recognition and treatment,” the authors concluded.

Merck pulls antibiotic for multidrug-resistant infections from US market -  Drugmaker Merck says it will no longer manufacture or market the antibacterial combination drug Recarbrio in the United States. A combination of the antibiotic imipenem-cilastatin and the beta-lactamase inhibitor relebactam, Recarbrio was approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in 2019 to treat adults with complicated urinary tract infections and intra-abdominal infections and no alternative treatment options. It was approved for adults with hospital-acquired and ventilator-associated bacterial pneumonia in 2020 and expanded for use in children in 2025. Recarbrio was developed to target multidrug-resistant infections, particularly pathogens carrying resistance mechanisms that can disable beta-lactam antibiotics, like Klebsiella pneumoniae carbapenemase (KPC), which is found in carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales (CRE) infections. It’s one of several beta-lactam/beta-lactamase inhibitor combinations that have been developed in recent years to meet the rising threat of drug-resistant bacteria and was initially touted by the company as an important new tool for patients with difficult-to-treat infections. "At a time of great public health concern about the need for new treatments to meet the evolving challenges posed by Gram-negative bacteria, we are proud to continue bringing new therapeutic options to health care practitioners in an effort to help them overcome the challenges in patient care,” Nicholas Kartsonis, MD, senior vice president of clinical research, infectious diseases and vaccines at Merck Research Laboratories, said in a 2020 press release. The company said the decision to withdraw the drug from the US market came as part of an ongoing review of its portfolio and was not related to any product safety or quality issues. “We understand that Recarbrio has been an important option for certain patients. Alternative therapeutic options remain available for the approved indications; patients should consult their healthcare provider to determine the appropriate course of action,” a Merck spokesperson told CIDRAP News.

Quick takes: Mumps on a football team, sprout and pepper outbreaks, polio cases in 4 nations | CIDRAP

• San Diego State University’s football team is beset by a 14-case mumps outbreak one day out from its Pac-12 opener against Texas State. While San Diego State officials didn’t identify the team, the San Diego Union-Tribune said it’s the football team. Of the nearly 36 players listed in the Aztecs’ initial availability report this week, 17 were categorized as doubtful or out. Mumps typically causes fever, headache, achy muscles, fatigue, puffy cheeks, and swollen jaws. In response to the outbreak, the university is providing measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine boosters to students free of charge.
• Twenty-one more people have tested positive for Shiga toxin–producing Escherichia coli and/or Salmonella Agona, and one more state is affected, in an outbreak linked to alfalfa sprouts, for a total of 76 cases in 16 states from May to September, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported yesterday. Two more people have been hospitalized, for a total of six. Everything Sprouts recalled its alfalfa sprouts and Robust Radish Sprout Mix, the latter of which because it may have been cross-contaminated with the alfalfa sprouts.
• Today, the CDC declared an end to its probe into a multistate outbreak of Salmonella Javiana linked to jalapeno peppers from Sinaloa, Mexico, and distributed by Coast Citrus Distributors. The outbreak sickened 488 people in 34 states and hospitalized 65 people from June through August. Ninety-one percent of people interviewed reported eating at Chipotle Mexican Grill or Qdoba. The Food and Drug Administration has also closed its investigation.
• This week, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative reported eight polio cases in four countries. Afghanistan documented three wild poliovirus type 1 infections, while the Central African Republic noted one case of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2), the Democratic Republic of Congo logged three cVDPV2 infections, and Nigeria reported one circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 3 case.

CDC reminds doctors in Southwest to be aware of plague -After a young Arizona man died of pneumonic plague last year, a report from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and Arizona scientists yesterday issued a caution to clinicians in areas where plague is endemic. They say to consider it as a possible cause of patients’ severe respiratory and systemic disease if they’ve been exposed to sick animals.As detailed in a new paper in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, the man who died had occupational exposure to two ill cats, which are especially susceptible to plague. The animals may have been how he contracted the bacterium Yersinia pestis, which causes plague, as they had "respiratory symptoms and other signs of systemic illness consistent with pneumonic plague.” However, the cats were euthanized before they could be tested.  Plague can take several forms, including pneumonic, which is transmitted through inhalation of respiratory droplets and has a nearly 100% case-fatality rate when untreated. The incubation period—the time from exposure to first symptoms—can be as short as one day. The “young adult male” died eight hours after he was admitted to the hospital, where doctors initially suspected he had hantavirus disease or bacterial pneumonia. Post-mortem testing confirmed Y pestis presence in his blood and lung tissue. It's Arizona’s first pneumonic plague death since 2007. The most common form of plague is not pneumonic, but bubonic, which causes large, swollen lymph nodes called buboes that are very painful.While plague has been infecting humans for millennia, the CDC says it was introduced into the United States in 1900 by rat-infested steamships and that the last urban plague epidemic in the country occurred in Los Angeles from 1924 through 1925.Plague is still found in the western United States, with the CDC showing 502 cases between 1970 and 2023. Over half of these were reported in New Mexico, followed by Colorado and Arizona, which together account for more than a quarter of the remaining infections. From 2000 through 2023, the CDC reported 122 cases of plague, including 15 fatalities.

CDC confirms multistate outbreak of E coli linked to raw milk cheese  - The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) are investigating a multistate outbreak of Escherichia coli infections linked to Graziers raw (unpasteurized) milk cheeses sold by Sierra Nevada Cheese Company of Willows, California. So far 13 cases in nine states have been identified, with eight patients hospitalized, including three with hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS). No deaths have been reported. HUS is one of the more severe outcomes of E coli infections and can cause acute kidney failure. Over half of the case-patients are under the age of 5 years.Three people each have been sickened in California and Nevada, and single cases have been reported in Oregon, Utah, Colorado, Michigan, Kentucky, Georgia and Tennessee.Illness-onset dates range from July 7 to August 26. “The true number of sick people in this outbreak is likely much higher than the number reported, and the outbreak may not be limited to the states with known illnesses,” the CDC said. “This is because many people recover without medical care and are not tested for E. coli.”The cheese was sold at various retailers nationwide. “This product has a long shelf life. Check your refrigerators and freezers for the recalled raw milk cheeses and throw them away. If you refrigerated or froze cheese without the original packaging and can’t tell if it’s part of the recall, throw it away,” the FDA said.  Both the CDC and FDA urged consumers to choose pasteurized dairy products over raw products, especially for children under the age of 5 years.

WHO: Global cholera deaths rose by 30% in 2025  - Deaths from cholera rose by 30% in 2025, the World Health Organization (WHO) said today.The 7,870 cholera deaths reported to the WHO represent the highest number since 1999, the organization said. But the 451,499 cholera cases reported last year mark a 20% reduction from 2024.Just seven countries—Angola, Bangladesh, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Nigeria, South Sudan, Sudan, and Yemen—accounted for 90% of all reported cases and deaths caused by the highly contagious and acute diarrheal infection, which spreads through water and food contaminated by the Vibrio cholerae bacterium. While inadequate sanitation and lack of clean water play a significant role in the spread of the disease, the WHO notes that all seven countries recorded conflict- or disaster-related displacement this year.Though cholera is treatable with antibiotics, oral rehydration solution, and intravenous fluids, it can quickly become life-threatening if it goes untreated. The WHO said one in five reported deaths occurred outside healthcare facilities.“No one should be dying from cholera today when we have the tools to prevent and treat this disease,” Chikwe Ihekweazu, MD, executive director of the WHO’s Health Emergencies Programme, said in a news release. “The concentration of cases and deaths in a small number of countries shows where targeted investments in safe water, sanitation and hygiene could have the greatest impact.”  The WHO also highlighted trends in two other diseases in its Weekly Epidemiological Record—bacterial meningitis and plague.In 2025, 24 of 26 countries in Africa’s meningitis belt reported 21,526 bacterial meningitis cases to the WHO, a 6% decline from 2024. The 971 reported deaths from the infection, which causes inflammation of the tissues surrounding the brain and spinal cord, corresponds to a case-fatality rate of 4.5%. Meningitis deaths were down from 1,397 in 2024, a 30% drop.From 2019 through 2025, 10 countries reported 3,847 suspected human plague cases and 423 deaths, for a case-fatality rate of 11%. Most cases were reported from the DRC and Madagascar. Plague is caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis and is primarily transmitted to people by infected fleas.

DR Congo Ebola outbreak tops 8,000 cases, with 48% death rate - The Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has now topped 8,000 cases, with officials confirming 8,067 cases and 3,901 deaths since mid-May, for a 48% case-fatality rate (CFR). The outbreak is the second-largest in history, but the fastest-growing on record.Despite some tentative remarks last week from DRC officials who suggested transmission may have peaked, the latest Disease Outbreak News update from the World Health Organization (WHO) describes an outbreak that is entrenched in seven provinces, with an early-September resurgence of activity.. Ituri province is by far the hardest hit, with 6,032 confirmed cases since the start of the outbreak, including 868 new confirmed cases from September 1 to September 23. North Kivu is the second most affected province, with a cumulative 1,480 confirmed cases, including 567 reported in the past 21 days, the WHO said. Most worrisome, the high CFR remains a sign that patients are not seeking supportive care early in their illnesses, and too many are dying in the community and not at treatment centers, the WHO said. “The continuously high CFR, and especially the continuous high rate of deaths occurring in communities, highlights the seriousness of the disease and the persistent challenges in timely case detection and access to early and adequate patient care,” the WHO said. “These delays can contribute to preventable illness and deaths among people in affected and newly affected areas, while also allowing transmission to continue within households, communities, and healthcare settings.” The outbreak is only the third since 2007 to be cause by the Bundibugyo strain of the virus. The CFR of the previous outbreaks reported in Uganda and in the DRC in 2007 and 2012, were 30% and 50%, respectively. There are no vaccines or therapeutics targeting for the Bundibugyo strain of Ebola.

DR Congo Ebola cases grow, deaths top 4,000 as officials struggle to ascertain numbers, trends --    The largest-ever Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has reached 8,300 infections and 4,018 deaths, as a Medicines Sans Frontieres (MSF) staff member is evacuated after testing positive for the virus.  The staff member was medically evacuated to the Netherlands after testing positive for Ebola on September 29, according to an MSF press release yesterday. Fifty healthcare workers have died of Ebola since the outbreak was declared in May, the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) said in a special briefing yesterday. There are signs of a downturn in cases: More than 21 days have passed since a new case in 18 health zones, and the 278 infections confirmed near the end of September represent the lowest weekly case count since mid-June. Weekly deaths are now at 192, down from a peak of 364 in mid-August.But during the briefing, Wessam Mankoula, MBBS, MPH, an epidemiologist with the Africa CDC, said the decline in confirmed cases may also reflect underreporting. “This curve doesn’t mean that the outbreak is totally under control, because we need to understand the reason for this falling in the last epi [epidemiologic] week,” he said. “The security situation and some of the community resistance in some of the health zones in Katwa, Beni, Butembo, Nizi, and Nia-Nia has led to the inability of our team to continue with strengthening surveillance activities” in those areas. In addition to unpaid healthcare workers, armed conflict, and mass population displacement in some areas of the DRC, health officials have had to deal with violence and property destruction. On Sunday, a senior member of the DRC’s ruling party was beaten to death in Nord-Kivu province after he encouraged preventive measures against Ebola infection on a radio show. This week, an Ebola-hit camp housing a transit center for infected patients was burned to the ground by soldiers looking for weapons on the outskirts of Bunia in Ituri province, leading 19,000 people in the camp to flee. And new infections aren’t declining in all provinces, Mankoula said. While new cases are down 32% in Ituri province, they are climbing in Tshopo and North Kivu, the latter of which has a case-fatality rate of 59.3%, well above the national average of 48.4%.As of late last week, 6,300 healthcare workers have received the Ervebo Ebola vaccine as part of a clinical trial, and 1,066 others have also received doses. The vaccine has proven efficacy against the more-common Zaire Ebola virus, and its effectiveness is being estimated against the Bundibugyo strain causing the outbreak. There are no vaccines or therapeutics targeting Bundibugyo.

More than 2 million new cancer cases caused by infections in 2024, study finds - Many people fear cancer and want to know what they can do to prevent it. In some cases, genetics, random mutations, or environmental factors are to blame, making it difficult to avoid a diagnosis. A paper published yesterday in The Lancet Oncology, though, calls attention to a preventable cause of cancer—infections. “An estimated 2.3 million new cancer cases were attributable to infections globally in 2024, which is equivalent to 12% of all cancer cases,” wrote the authors, led by researchers from the International Agency for Research on Cancer in France. “Our findings highlight the importance of infection control to achieve cancer prevention.” Using data from the Global Cancer Observatory’s Cancer Today (GLOBOCAN) database about 2024 cancer incidence, the scientists estimated the number of cancers caused by one of 12 pathogens considered group 1 carcinogens. These include: 

• Helicobacter pylori (H pylori)
• Human papillomavirus (HPV)
• Hepatitis B virus (HBV)
• Hepatitis C virus (HCV)
• Epstein–Barr virus (EBV)
• Kaposi's sarcoma-associated herpesvirus
• Schistosoma haematobium
• Human T-cell lymphotropic virus
• Opisthorchis viverrine
• Clonorchis sinensis
• Merkel cell polyomavirus
• HIV

These infectious diseases contributed to approximately 2.3 million new cancer diagnoses in 2024. H pylori and HPV were responsible for the biggest share of cases, each causing 4%. EBV led to 1% of cancers, while HCV contributed to less than 1%. Low- and middle-income countries reported three-quarters of all infectious disease–related cancers. 

Trump orders DC mosquito purge – President Donald Trump wants mosquitoes gone from the “swamp,” and has given EPA a push to fast-track approvals for bioengineering projects aimed at Washington. Trump signed an executive order Tuesday directing EPA, the Interior and Agriculture departments, and the General Services Administration, in consultation with the Department of Health and Human Services, to reduce, by 2028, Washington’s invasive mosquito populations by at least 90% and its tick population by at least 50%. EPA is tasked as the lead for a regulatory framework that considers “sterilization techniques, safe genetic modification, and use of safe, beneficial bacteria.” The agency is also ordered to move quickly to “register novel tick and mosquito control methods or products,” so long as EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin finds them “to be both safe and effective.” The order authorizes Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to launch a prize competition to develop new treatments for tick- and mosquito-borne diseases, as part of his “Lyme Disease Moonshot” initiative, which is “subject to the availability of appropriations.” The order — another instance of the president’s close oversight of day-to-day life in the city he now calls home — comes as EPA faces a pile of permit requests from biotech companies for various types of “mosquito birth control.”Perhaps the largest applications awaiting EPA approval comes from tech giant Google’s “Debug Project,” which aims to sterilize male mosquitoes with a bacteria called Wolbachia. Google’s experimental use permit to test the bacteria on the Asian tiger, or aedes albopictus, mosquito, the species that dominates Washington, is still pending after the public comment period closed in May.Google is also testing the bacteria on the Egyptian, or aedes aegypti, mosquitoes, the strain most notorious as the primary transmitter of Zika, chikungunya, dengue and other deadly viruses.Google CEO Sundar Pichai was among a group of tech executives at the White House on Tuesday to sign a voluntary agreement “self-policing” their artificial intelligence products. Google’s press office did not immediately respond to questions.Zeldin in May emphatically rejected a viral online claim that EPA authorized a mass release of genetically modified mosquitoes as “ENTIRELY fake news!”  Mosquito birth control tools exist, with controlled trials in states, including California and Florida, showing signs of success. The Interior Department, for another example, has looked to use sterilization techniques to save an endangered bird species in Hawaii.   Kennedy has long treated ticks as personal territory, circulating baseless rumors about Lyme disease as a bioweapon created in a U.S. military lab. Congress late last year authorized more investigation into the origins of the bacterial infection with long-lasting health effects.  Trump’s order gives the agencies 60 days to build their campaign and framework on how they plan to reach the 2028 deadline. EPA is also expected to decide on the permits from Google and other biotech companies in the mosquito birth control business — namely Oxitec and Synvect — soon.

Florida’s dengue outbreak reportedly largest US has seen in decades A dengue fever outbreak in the state of Florida appears to have grown to the largest in the continental U.S. in decades, totaling 252 reported cases this year in the Sunshine State according to an update this week. Dengue fever, which is transmitted through infected mosquito bites, is rarely fatal and most infected people do not experience symptoms. However, it can cause fever, eye and joint pain, nausea and rash, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Last month, Florida reported one death from the virus of an elderly woman in Tampa. Hillsborough County had the highest level of reports, with a total of 223 locally-spread cases. Hillsborough encompasses the Tampa area and is the fourth-most populous county in the state. County officials have declared a state of emergency amid this outbreak, with Hillsborough County Administrator Bonnie Wise extending this order this week amid ongoing efforts to control the local mosquito population. The county is encouraging residents to take steps to mitigate the spread of this virus, including draining stagnant water, wearing protective clothing when going outside and using bug spray. Florida routinely sees some of the highest levels of reported dengue contractions in the continental U.S. The state’s warm weather is conducive for the breed of mosquitos that spreads dengue. In 2023, Florida reported 200 locally-spread cases. In the U.S. more broadly, Puerto Rico also sees high levels of dengue. The territory reported 922 of the total 2,145 locally-acquired cases in the country this year, according to the CDC. The largest-ever outbreak in the U.S. occurred in Hawaii over a six month period between 2015 and 2016, with a total of 264 locally-acquired cases.

Cambodia reports 6th H5N1 avian influenza case, the latest from Oddar Meanchey Province -  Cambodia health authoroties report a confirmed case of avian influenza (H5N1) in a 49-year-old man from Tuol Kruos Village, O'Svay Commune, Trapeang Prasat District, Oddar Meanchey Province on September 27.   This is the sixth confirmed H5N1 avian influenza case reported in Cambodia in 2026. Currently, the patient is in isolation at the hospital and is receiving attentive care and treatment from the medical team. The investigation revealed that the patient raised and cared for chickens at a farm and had direct contact with sick and dead chickens; the latter were confirmed positive for the H5N1 avian influenza virus by the National Animal Health and Production Research Institute on September 23, 2026.  National and sub-national Ministry of Health rapid response teams are collaborating with provincial agricultural departments and local authorities at all levels to actively investigate the avian influenza outbreak.

How does a bird virus infect a person? -How do we know when an animal virus might pose a risk to humans? Canada confirmed a human case of H5N1 avian influenza (often called "bird flu") in 2024, the first known to have been acquired in Canada. The patient, a 13-year-old from British Columbia, suffered severe symptoms, including respiratory failure, but recovered with intensive care in a hospital. Understanding how pathogens can switch from animals to humans—as in this case of bird flu—can help researchers and public health agencies prepare for future outbreaks. In a recent study, our lab examined viral mutations in this case and uncovered an unexpected result: The effects of these mutations were inconsistent with the usual warning signs we expect to see in a virus adapted to infect humans. Public health agencies and collaborating groups use complementary approaches to monitor infectious disease outbreaks and risk. Human outbreak data come from many places, including care settings and associated surveillance labs, volunteers reporting disease status, and wastewater monitoring. Routine virological tests in public health labs include sequencing viral genes, testing for antiviral resistance and assessing immunity against strains of interest.Through wildlife and agricultural monitoring, Canadian agencies have tracked the arrival of the currently dominant H5N1 lineage of avian influenza, to which the B.C. case belongs. Sequencing of the virus from the patient found three mutations of interest. One is already a well-studied sign of adaptation from birds to mammals.The other two mutations caught our attention because they are less understood. Both were in hemagglutinin, the viral surface protein that binds to cells and initiates infection by fusing the virus and cell membranes. These mutations, E190D and Q226H (representing 28% and 35%, respectively, of hemagglutinin genetic material sequenced), were in the part of hemagglutinin known to interact with receptors on host cells.Bird and human cells tend to display different types of receptors, which is why scientists use receptor binding as a common test for species adaptation. These hemagglutinin mutations had not previously been observed to switch binding to human-type receptors in H5N1 influenza. Our lab investigated how these two mutations affected which types of receptors the viruses bind to more readily. Receptor binding can influence which cells, and which species, a virus is more likely to infect. We made versions of the hemagglutinin protein with and without each mutation and measured how they bound to different receptors. The results were unexpected. When we produced hemagglutinin protein with either mutation, we did not observe the expected binding to human-type receptors that would support human infection. Binding to avian receptors was also severely diminished. Using standard approaches, binding to any receptor was essentially undetectable. Yet the virus in the B.C. patient clearly replicated in human tissue. So our team tested the ability of the hemagglutinin variant carrying both mutations to fuse cells derived from human lung cells. After binding to host cells, fusion is the second major step mediated by hemagglutinin. Fusion releases the viral genetic material and proteins required for replication from inside the viral particle into the host cell, where they can function. As with receptor binding, we saw a substantial reduction in the ability of the virus's hemagglutinin protein to fuse the membranes of lung-derived cells, likely a consequence of reduced binding. However, we did detect a low level of fusion, which suggests that we might see both receptor binding and membrane fusion activity under conditions that better mimic actual human lungs. In a human case of infection with a virus that usually affects birds, we would normally expect to see the surface protein (hemagglutinin) binding to human receptors. That would be typical of a virus adapting from birds to humans. But in the B.C. case of human infection with H5N1, we saw a reduced ability to bind not only to human receptors but also to bird cell receptors, resulting in a reduced ability to fuse with cell membranes. However, the combination of many hemagglutinin proteins on the virus's surface and many receptors on the cell's surface may have compensated for the poor ability to bind to individual receptors. This case demonstrates that there is much to learn about the complex factors that may allow a virus to infect humans. Decades of investigation gave us reason to believe these hemagglutinin mutations were worth studying, a success for our existing knowledge base.

H5N1 avian flu returns to Midwest poultry farms, with multiple turkey operations hit --  After a quiet summer of little activity, H5N1 avian flu has come roaring back on commercial poultry operations across the United States in September, with turkey facilities in Minnesota and the Dakotas particularly hit in recent weeks.According to the latest update from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS), four poultry facilities, three of which were commercial turkey and duck producers, reported avian flu outbreaks this past week. Two of the turkey outbreaks were in Stearns County, Minnesota, where 77,200 and 31,200 birds were affected, respectively.A commercial duck meat breeding operation in Jay County, Indiana, was also hit this week, with 24,300 birds affected. And in Boone County, Iowa, a smaller backyard operation of 140 birds was affected.In the past 30 days, 14 commercial flocks and seven backyard flocks have confirmed H5N1, affecting a total of 620,000 birds. Minnesota is the national hotspot for avian flu, with eight affected commercial flocks and three affected backyard flocks, resulting in 338,650 birds affected in the last 30 Days. Outbreaks at commercial facilities in North and South Dakota have affected 176,900 birds. The rolling total of birds affected has been increasing in recent weeks, after a seasonal low in August of 150,000 birds. Wild bird detections have also increased, which is typical given migration patterns in the fall. APHIS noted about 40 new wild bird detections since last week, including a dozen Blue winged teal in Barton County, Kansas, that were hunter-harvested. Hancock County, Iowa, also had hunter-harvested detections.

Gov. Mike DeWine pushes initiative to make Ohio drinking water safer - — Governor Mike DeWine visited Cincinnati on Wednesday to highlight a statewide effort to replace lead service lines and help provide safer drinking water for Ohio communities. The initiative is part of H2Ohio, a state program focused on improving Ohio's water infrastructure. During the visit, Greater Cincinnati Water Works announced it had removed its 10,000th lead service line. DeWine said H2Ohio has invested $9 million in lead service line replacement efforts, with an initial focus on schools and daycares because children can be particularly vulnerable to exposure to lead. So far, approximately 200 lead service lines at schools and daycares across Ohio have been removed, including 65 in Cincinnati, according to state officials. DeWine said the goal is to address the lines before they deteriorate and potentially affect drinking water. “These lead pipes mostly are safe, but at some point, we just don't know when they do start to deteriorate,” DeWine said. “When they start to deteriorate, then you start having problems with the water, and again, these kids are the most susceptible.” The Ohio EPA says approximately 16,000 lead service lines have been removed statewide since 2019, with another 30,000 currently in the process of being addressed. Officials say the state has also identified and mapped lead service lines across Ohio, allowing communities to determine where replacement work is needed. John Logue, Director, Ohio EPA said the effort demonstrates the state's continued investment in water infrastructure. “An additional 30,000 are now in process. We've also identified and mapped out all the lead lines across the state, so we know where we need to go,” Logue said. State officials say the next 30,000 lead service lines currently in process are expected to be completed within the next 10 years.

Cat food investigation finds heavy metals, pesticides and plastic chemicals – --Nearly all tested cat foods contain toxic plastic contaminants, the herbicide glyphosate and heavy metals such as lead, mercury and arsenic, according to a new investigation. “Most cats eat the same foods nearly every day, with little variation,” said report author Molly Hamilton, executive director of the Clean Label Project, a Colorado nonprofit that tests consumer products for contaminants and certifies those meeting its standards.  “The contaminants are an ongoing exposure that may accumulate in cats’ bodies over their lifetimes,” Hamilton said. “For example, chronic kidney disease is among the most common causes of death in older cats — the kidneys play a major role in filtering heavy metals.”  Toxins were found in all types of cat food — wet, dry and air- or freeze-dried — even in products labeled as natural and nutritionally superior, according to the analysis released Friday.“Cat owners increasingly choose premium meats, organic vegetables and cleaner labels, assuming higher prices and quality ingredients mean healthier food,” Hamilton told CNN. “That’s not necessarily the case.” Clean Label published a similar assessment of dog food in February that found three to 13 times more heavy metals than human food. Lead and cadmium exposure has been linked to canine cancer, a leading cause of death in dogs.  Heavy metals occur naturally in soil, water and air, but agricultural, industrial and mining pollution can increase and spread contamination. Plastics and other contaminants may also enter food during manufacturing, the report said.“Overall, this appears to be a reasonably conducted analysis,” said Ryan Babadi, science director for Toxic Free Future, a nonprofit consumer product safety organization.“Major retailers have the responsibility to require their suppliers to eliminate harmful chemicals from pet food and packaging — chemicals that are already being phased out or banned in many other products,” said Babadi, who was not involved in the investigation. The Pet Food Institute, which represents manufacturers of cat foods, told CNN in an email that pet food manufacturers do implement comprehensive food safety and quality assurance programs.Those include “ingredient specifications, supplier verification, testing protocols, traceability systems, and science-based preventive controls designed to ensure products are safe, nutritious, and consistent,” said Elise Fennig, the CEO for the Pet Food Institute.“Cat owners should feel confident that the food they feed their pets is safe and produced according to rigorous regulatory and quality standards.”The investigation tested 100 top-selling cat foods for more than 122 contaminants, including lead, arsenic, cadmium, mercury, pesticides, herbicides and phthalates, the plastic chemicals linked to an increased risk of death in humans.  Lead was found in 99%, cadmium in 96% and arsenic in 94% of cat food samples across 62 brands. Contamination varied by product type — wet, dry, and air- or freeze-dried — and the type of protein, such as poultry, beef or fish.Cadmium is classified as a human carcinogen and harms the kidneys and bones. A buildup of lead in the body damages nearly every major organ system. Inorganic arsenic — the type found in soil and water — is also a known human carcinogen.Dry cat food contained roughly three times more lead than wet or air-dried products. No level of lead is safe for people, and children are most vulnerable: Their bodies absorb up to 50% of ingested lead, compared with about 10% for adults, which can cause stunted growth, decreased IQ, hyperactivity and irritability.Cats and other small pets also absorb more than larger ones, yet few regulations control contaminants in pet food, Hamilton said. “The absence of safety standards does not mean a contaminant is safe. Most guidelines are designed for farm animals, not kittens or 15-year-old housecats.” Fish and seafood — popular proteins for cats — had the strongest association with mercury and cadmium, the report found. Because microorganisms in water turn regular mercury into methylmercury, a toxic chemical form that binds tightly to fish tissue, the heavy metal accumulates to higher levels in aquatic animals.  Mercury is toxic to the nervous, digestive and immune systems, as well as the kidneys, lungs and skin, according to the World Health Organization. Mercury levels were about 18 times higher and cadmium levels about 2.5 times higher in fish- or seafood-based cat foods than in foods made with other proteins. Wet versions of seafood products contained the most mercury — nearly 28 times as much as wet foods made with other meats, especially poultry. “As the main protein, chicken was better when it came to mercury and cadmium, but we saw higher rates of lead and herbicides in chicken,” Hamilton said. “It’s a whack-a-mole situation — which contaminant do you want to whack?“That doesn’t mean all fish options were high in mercury — levels depend on manufacturers’ quality-control testing,” she added. “We certified several fish-based foods.”Nearly 85% of poultry-based foods met Clean Label Project’s purity standard compared with 25.7% of fish and seafood products.“Every product in this study was purchased at retail, and no brand had any role in selecting products, conducting testing or analyzing the results. No brand saw the results before publication,” Hamilton said.  Although cats are carnivores, many manufacturers add produce to cat food for its antioxidants, minerals and vitamins. Unless grown organically, those plants may be exposed to pesticides. A national report found the vast majority of 100 popular fruits and vegetables tested positive for a wide variety of bug-killers.The Clean Label investigation tested for glyphosate, which is agriculture’s most widely used herbicide. Glyphosate was found at detectable levels in 37% of products, and cat food with more plants in the first 10 ingredients had higher glyphosate levels.The WHO’s International Agency for Research on Cancer classified glyphosate in 2015 as “probably carcinogenic to humans.” The US Environmental Protection Agency disagrees.  “On average, cat food with two plant ingredients among the top 10 on the label had roughly 40% more glyphosate than a similar food with one plant ingredient. Cat food with five plant ingredients had nearly four times as much,” Hamilton said. Another “very concerning finding” was the widespread presence of di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate, or DEHP, a chemical used in PVC plastics and some food-contact materials that is linked to cancer, birth defects and other health concerns, Babadi said.“It was detected in about half of the products tested, with the highest levels in canned and pouch products. DEHP contamination could potentially occur during food processing, including through contact with PVC tubing or other farm or food processing equipment,” he said.  The research did have limitations. Each product was tested from a single batch. Therefore, the study could not capture differences that might occur between batches of the same product. “In addition, this study compares contaminant levels across products in each category of wet, dry and air- or freeze-dried. It does not determine whether a specific product will cause harm to a cat.”

The next bioweapon could attack our genes instead of our bodies. I promise you we’re not ready for that. - We live in an age of seemingly unending crises. The world continues to warm, pushing Earth into the sixth mass extinction event in its history. Intractable wars and conflicts rage on multiple continents. The U.S. life expectancy is now at the lowest it’s been in 30 years. Then, there’s artificial intelligence, a massive uncertainty bomb with the equal possibility to help solve—or exacerbate—all of the above. Nowhere is this more obvious than in the biomedical field, where AI’s ability to pore over massive data sets, recognize patterns, and design novel viruses and bacteriophages is already reshaping research. This is only the beginning of what scientists call “synthetic biology,” and like so many human breakthroughs, it could be critical to tackling medical crises, such as the rise of antimicrobial-resistant superbugs. But those tools could just as easily fuel a new age of bioweapons, a threat serious enough that Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei recently called for a slowdown of AI development.  Arms control experts have warned for decades about weapons that attack the human genome instead of the human body. And unfortunately, those warnings aren’t hypothetical, since cruder chemical versions have already been used in warfare. Between 1962 and 1971, U.S. aircraft sprayed nearly 19 million gallons of herbicide across Vietnam. Much of it was Agent Orange, tainted during manufacture with TCDD—the most toxic dioxin ever identified, and a known human carcinogen. It causes birth defects and abnormalities in developing embryos.   Of course, Vietnam wasn’t the only theater of war where weapons were used that caused prolonged medical issues, whether cancer or reproductive problems. In the early 1980s, U.S. Secretary of State Alexander Haig accused the USSR of using Trichothecene mycotoxins (a known teratogen), otherwise known as “yellow rain,” in Southeast Asia and Afghanistan. In 1995, Saddam Hussein’s regime admitted to the U.N. that Iraq had developed aflatoxins—chemicals produced by the fungi Aspergillus flavus and Aspergillus parasiticus—for use in aerial bombs and Scud missile warheads. The toxin wasn’t meant to kill troops. Instead, its main method of destruction is an insidious one: It causes the rapid development of liver cancer, particularly in children.“From a moral standpoint, aflatoxin is the cruelest weapon,” Richard Spertzel, the chief weapons inspector for the now-defunct United Nations Special Commission (UNSCOM) told Slate in 2002. “It means watching children die slowly of liver cancer.”These fears are only exacerbated today by gene editing technologies and artificial intelligence. In February 2016, the U.S. Director of National Intelligence, James Clapper, added gene-editing to a list of “weapons of mass destruction and proliferation,” and a year later, China’s People’s Liberation Army noted in an authoritative textbook that “specific ethnic genetic attacks” could become increasingly possible. In 2024, the Washington Post reported that Russia was expanding an old bioweapons lab in the midst of its ongoing invasion of Ukraine.Of course, many international legal frameworks, such as the Biological Weapons Convention in 1972, have been created to prevent such an attack from happening in the first place. But with the proliferation of synthetic biology and artificial intelligence, it’s possible such an attack could one day originate from a rogue actor. In other words, what if Amodei’s worst nightmare came to pass?   Here’s how I think it could go down. In the event of such an attack, one of the keys to an effective first response would be to figure out precisely what had happened, like when Bashar al-Assad used Sarin gas in 2013. In less than a month, investigators for the U.N.’s Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) noted that the evidence was “overwhelming and indisputable” after 85 percent of blood samples from the impacted region in Syria contained traces of the sarin gas, along with retrieved rocket fragments. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have a playbook in place for a bioterrorist threat as well, which includes coordinating with the Emergency Operations Center along with health officials and hospitals located at ground zero.The state-sponsored use of such a weapon would certainly make that country a pariah in the eyes of the U.N., though shifting global alliances can complicate matters. In Syria, for example, the U.S. and Europe cut off diplomatic ties, leveraged heavy sanctions, and even launched military strikes (which also happened following the 2017 sarin gas attacks in Syria). On the ground, scientists would have to vigorously study the mutagenic weapon, learn its impacts, and plot an appropriate course of action to stop its spread. They’d also have to provide short-term and long-term treatment for the people affected by the weapon.Depending on how devastating the weapon was, entire research foundations might form to track long-term impacts of the exposure, similar to the creation of the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) that studied the lifelong impacts of radiation exposure following the nuclear bombings of Nagasaki and Hiroshima. As also seen in the decades following the nuclear disaster at Chernobyl, science often follows the political maxim of “never letting a good crisis go to waste” when potentially life-saving knowledge can be obtained. Thankfully, here’s where some good news comes in. A 2018 report developed by scientists and experts around the U.S. titled Biodefense in the Age of Synthetic Biology highlights that developing such a weapon is prohibitively difficult. Even in the age of AI, when the technical expertise to make bioweapons is more readily available, the mechanism for deploying a weapon that would have a wide impact remains technically challenging. “Even were it to become more technologically feasible to use genes to cause oncogenesis, neurodegenerative disease, immunological collapse, or other undesirable states, in the absence of a pathogen or greatly advanced unnatural horizontal transfer mechanism to promote the dispersal of a gene, the ability of an actor to deliver genes for these purposes is limited...The mechanisms of dispersal (other than pathogens themselves) are likely to be low yield, the probability of inculcation of the disease state is likely to be low, and the onset of the disease state is likely not rapid.” But that doesn’t mean the world can turn a blind eye to this growing threat. A 2025 report by the Center of Strategic and International Studies says that the “falling barriers to bioterrorism are set to accelerate in the emerging age of AI and biotechnology” and that “U.S. biosecurity measures are ill-equipped to prevent AI-enabled biological threats.” The report goes on to suggest that, at least in the U.S., more funding needs to flow to the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) and the U.S. Center for AI Standards and Innovation (CAISI) while supporting international AI safety efforts, such as the International Network of AI Safety Institutes.The future of bioterrorism in the age of AI is another line item on the world’s growing list of uncertainty. But that doesn’t mean we can’t—and shouldn’t—prepare for the very worst outcomes.

New sound catalog reveals who's who in the world of killer whales - A new open-access catalog of whale calls will help researchers and orca enthusiasts identify distinct killer whale populations, clans and family groups by their vocalizations alone.Developed at Simon Fraser University, the Orca Call Catalog serves as a field guide to killer whale calls, pulling decades of recordings into a searchable online library for the first time, says John Ford, scientist emeritus at Fisheries and Oceans Canada."More and more people are listening for orcas on live-streaming underwater microphones along the B.C. coast, or analyzing recordings from acoustic monitoring instruments placed on the seafloor," says Ford, who collaborated with SFU's Humans and Algorithms Listening to Orcas (HALLO) project to build the audio library."With this catalog, recordings can tell us so much more than just 'killer whales are here.' It tells us which ecotype it is, which clan or subclan, and, within the resident populations, which pod it is," he says. "It's incredibly valuable for conservation, helping us track movement patterns that relate to prey, identify critical habitat at different times of the year, and look at how disturbance like noise might be affecting the whales."The Pacific coast is home to three killer whale ecotypes, each with its own unique call sounds: resident (southern and northern), Bigg's killer whales (also known as transient) and offshore killer whales. Resident and Bigg's ecotypes have distinct clans, which share calls that make up their dialects. There are even variations in call types between different family groups, or pods, within the same clan, Ford explains."Comparing the dialects of clans within a resident population like the Northern Residents would be like comparing Mandarin to Swahili," he says. "There are no calls shared between these clans, even though they're in the same population."Beyond documenting and identifying each call type, the Orca Call Catalog also captures variations in how groups make those calls. "With practice, you can start to interpret their mood based on how they're making a call," says Ford. "If a call is shorter and higher-pitched, it can convey excitement, much like humans tend to speak faster and raise their voices when they're excited."

Scientists call for protection and restoration of Africa's seagrass meadows - A team of African researchers has published the first comprehensive review of seagrass restoration activities across Africa's coastline. Seagrasses are flowering plants that grow in shallow coastal waters, where their bright green leaves form underwater meadows. Along the African coastline, seagrass meadows have supported human societies for millennia, offering food, medicine, raw materials, and cultural and spiritual meaning. Yet these ecosystems are among the most poorly understood ocean habitats in terms of their global distribution and status. Professor Sophie von der Heyden of Stellenbosch University's Department of Botany and Zoology recently led a review of seagrass restoration projects in Africa with colleagues from North, West and East African countries. The review, titled "Identifying and addressing critical gaps to accelerate seagrass restoration in Africa," was published in the Journal of Applied Ecology. Von der Heyden says that while seagrass research has increased globally in the past 20 years, there is about six times as much research on coral reefs as on seagrasses. "Seagrass restoration is an important part of maintaining seagrass meadows as they decline globally, but seagrass restoration science is fragmented and species-specific, meaning that what works in one region cannot be applied elsewhere," she explains. The review therefore provides a timely perspective on pathways to strengthen seagrass restoration efforts in Africa. This aligns with the United Nations Decade of Ecosystem Restoration (2021–2030) and the recognition of seagrasses as an "Essential Ocean Variable." Together, the authors evaluated published seagrass restoration studies in coastal countries with known seagrass meadows. They found that one of the biggest challenges in monitoring seagrasses in Africa is uncertainty about the extent and area covered by meadows in most countries. Only four countries—Kenya, Mozambique, South Africa and Tunisia—could provide data on the loss and gain of seagrass meadows. This means that in many countries, we do not know the status of seagrasses or whether meadows are stable or declining.

One dead, tens of thousands without power as nor’easter impacts U.S. Northeast – 4  Youtube videos -A long-duration nor’easter continued producing coastal flooding, heavy rain and strong winds from Virginia to New England on September 27, 2026, leaving tens of thousands of utility customers without power. Coastal Flood Warnings remained in effect along parts of the U.S. East Coast, while a 56-year-old man was killed and four people were injured in separate falling-tree incidents in Brooklyn, New York, on September 26. Satellite image of the nor'easter storm impacting the U.S. East Coast at 11:50 UTC on Sept 27, 2026. The National Weather Service (NWS) New York/Upton office placed the storm’s center south of Long Island and east of New Jersey at 08:00 UTC on September 27. The low was forecast to move westward toward New Jersey, stall near the coast Sunday night and drift slowly eastward on Monday while weakening. PowerOutage.com reported approximately 37 450 customers without electricity in New York and 29 740 in Connecticut at the reporting cutoff. Additional outages in New Jersey, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island brought the six-state total above 90 000. Suffolk County accounted for more than 21 000 of the New York outages. Eversource reported more than 27 000 customers without power in Connecticut. A 56-year-old New York City Housing Authority employee was killed when a tree fell on him in a parking area at 700 Euclid Avenue in East New York, Brooklyn, at approximately 15:30 EDT (19:30 UTC) on September 26. The investigators had not determined whether storm winds caused the tree to fall. Four people suffered minor injuries when another tree fell at Kelly Park Playground in Brooklyn at approximately 17:30 EDT (21:30 UTC), according to the New York City Fire Department. They were taken to Maimonides Medical Center. The New York City Parks Department had received more than 350 reports of fallen trees by 18:00 EDT (22:00 UTC) on September 26. An NWS public information statement listed gusts of 98 km/h (61 mph) at Farmingdale Airport, New York, and 90 km/h (56 mph) at John F. Kennedy International Airport and Bridgeport Airport, Connecticut, on September 26. A gust of 74 km/h (46 mph) was recorded at Brooklyn College. Coastal Flood Warnings remained in effect across New York City, Long Island and parts of coastal Connecticut through 18:00 EDT (22:00 UTC) on September 27. NWS forecast inundation of approximately 0.6–0.8 m (2–2.5 feet) above ground in vulnerable waterfront areas, locally reaching 1 m (3 feet). Widespread moderate to locally major flooding remained possible along the back bays of southern Nassau and southwestern Suffolk counties. Breaking waves of approximately 2–3 m (6–9 feet) were forecast along exposed sections of Long Island. NWS expected additional rainfall of 25–50 mm (1–2 inches), with locally higher totals across Connecticut, Long Island and the New York City metropolitan area through Sunday evening. Widespread minor urban, poor-drainage and small-stream flooding was considered likely, with isolated flash flooding possible. High Wind Warnings had been replaced by Wind Advisories across Long Island and southeastern Connecticut on Sunday morning. Gusts of 65–72 km/h (40–45 mph) remained possible, particularly near the coast, before winds gradually weakened. In New Jersey, High Wind Warnings remained in effect for coastal Monmouth and Ocean counties through noon EDT on September 27, while Wind Advisories covered a broader area. NWS Mount Holly warned that the combination of saturated ground, strong winds and trees retaining their leaves could cause additional tree and power-line damage. Coastal Flood Warnings continued along much of the New Jersey and Delaware coast through 14:00 EDT (18:00 UTC). Inundation of approximately 0.3–0.6 m (1–2 feet) was expected in low-lying shoreline and tidal-waterway areas, with widespread roadway flooding and some damage to vulnerable structures possible. Breaking waves of 2–4 m (6–12 feet) were forecast along the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches. NWS warned of dangerous rip currents, additional beach erosion and possible dune breaching. Preliminary NWS rainfall observations through the evening of September 26 included 72.4 mm (2.85 inches) at Spring Lake Heights, 70.1 mm (2.76 inches) at Neptune and 65.0 mm (2.56 inches) at Brick, New Jersey. Youtube video New Jersey’s state of emergency remained in effect across Atlantic, Burlington, Cape May, Cumberland, Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean and Salem counties. Executive Order No. 25 activated the State Emergency Operations Center and coordination among state agencies and county emergency-management offices. Connecticut activated its Emergency Operations Center on September 25. State agencies, municipalities, utilities and partner organizations were coordinating through the center during the storm. Across southern New England, NWS Boston/Norton said the strongest winds had passed by early September 27 and canceled High Wind Warnings across eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Windswept rain, minor coastal flooding, beach erosion and localized urban and street flooding were forecast to continue into Monday. Rainfall totals of 50–100 mm (2–4 inches) were forecast across much of southern New England, with isolated totals of 125–180 mm (5–7 inches). Flood Watches remained in effect across parts of Massachusetts and Rhode Island through late Monday. FlightAware recorded 451 canceled flights and 3 332 delays involving airports within, into or out of the United States on September 26. These were nationwide totals covering all causes and should not be interpreted as an exact count of storm-related disruptions. The nor’easter had earlier caused prolonged tidal flooding in Norfolk, Virginia. The municipal government reported continuing roadway flooding, drainage problems and transportation impacts on September 26, while warning that some roads could become impassable around high tide. A Coastal Flood Warning for Norfolk remained in effect through 14:00 EDT (18:00 UTC) on September 27. The city said minor to moderate flooding was expected, with major flooding possible in some locations.

Powerful nor’easter lashes East Coast with rain, flooding and wind | CNN  - A strong, early-season nor’easter delivered a weekend of wind, soaking rain and massive waves to the Northeast. Rain showers, which could be heavy at times, will continue off and on into Monday morning. Conditions are improving as the storm weakens.  One person was killed and four people, including children, were injured yesterday as wind toppled trees. Tens of thousands of customers across the Northeast are still without power on Sunday, and the storm continues to disrupt air travel. In North Carolina, officials set up emergency ferry service for an Outer Banks island where residents were cut off from the mainland due to highway damage. Water levels in Atlantic City, New Jersey, surged to the highest point since Superstorm Sandy yesterday. Flooding prompted evacuations and rescues in neighborhoods along the Jersey Shore. More than 80,000 customers were without power across the Northeastern US by Sunday afternoon, many of whom live in states beaten by harsh winds, sheets of rain and flash flooding. More than 2,500 customers in New York City alone were without power as of Sunday morning, New York City Emergency Management said. Poweroutage.us listed more than 27,100 customers in the dark in New York, about 23,200 in New Jersey, 21,200 in Connecticut, 6,100 in Maine, and over 4,600 in Pennsylvania.More than 14,100 people were also without power in Hawaii as residents grapple with persistent winds and heavy rainfall this weekend from Hurricane Nolo.The nor’easter continues to disrupt air travel across the US, with more than 4,000 flight delays and over 500 cancellations recorded nationwide today, as powerful winds and heavy rain hammer the region. Boston Logan International Airport is bearing the brunt of the flight disruptions, with more than 300 delays and cancellations reported as of Sunday afternoon, according to FlightAware. The airport is also experiencing delays averaging about 3.5 hours due to wind, according to the Federal Aviation Administration.Other flight hubs are experiencing similar delays. At New York’s LaGuardia Airport, travelers can expect to be delayed by about 2.5 hours, while John F. Kennedy International Airport and Philadelphia International Airport are reporting slowdowns under an hour, according to the FAA.Nantucket Memorial and Martha’s Vineyard airports in Massachusetts are also experiencing some flight disruptions. American, United, Delta, Southwest and JetBlue are waiving change fees to various Northeast airports based on the forecast weather conditions for the region over the weekend.Major airports included in the waiver are Boston Logan International Airport and New York’s LaGuardia Airport, among others.Rain showers, which could be heavy at times, are expected to continue off and on into Monday morning, but conditions are expected to improve throughout the evening as the storm weakens. If you’re just joining us, here’s the latest on the storm’s impact:

• One person was killed and four people, including children, were injured by falling trees in the gusty winds yesterday. A swimmer who reportedly disappeared off the south shore of Long Island has been found safe, New York State Police announced today.
• Tens of thousands of customers across several Northeastern states lost power for parts of both days, with repairs underway for many who remain without service.
• The storm caused major air travel disruptions, with hundreds of flights canceled and thousands delayed each day. More than 3,000 flight delays and over 400 cancellations were recorded nationwide today.
• North Carolina activated an emergency ferry service connecting the mainland to Hatteras Island, on the state’s Outer Banks, where residents were stuck after the storm left a crucial highway closed.
• The storm caused significant flooding for neighborhoods along the Jersey Shore. Water levels in Atlantic City, New Jersey, surged to the highest point since Superstorm Sandy on Saturday. More flooding could still hit the state between now and tomorrow morning, the governor cautioned.
• Parts of eastern Massachusetts experienced coastal flooding. Powerful northeast winds whipped up sea foam and waves at Nantasket Beach in Hull today as high tide pushed water toward the shoreline.

Live updates: Deadly nor'easter floods the coast as dangerous winds whip through the Northeast  - The worst of the nor’easter is now behind the East Coast, but the storm isn't finished making its presence felt. After days of powerful winds, heavy rain, coastal flooding and damaging beach erosion, the storm is expected to weaken overnight. From the Outer Banks to New England, the nor'easter has already left behind flooded communities, downed trees, power outages and widespread coastal damage. As cleanup crews work to remove debris, restore electricity and assess the damage, the nor’easter’s impacts aren’t over just yet. According to the FOX Forecast Center, the storm will rapidly weaken after moving into New Jersey Sunday night before looping back over the waters between New Jersey and Long Island on Monday. Heavy rain will continue across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and New England into Monday. The weakening system will continue to produce light rain across the Northeast, but winds will be much weaker than they were over the weekend, with maximum gusts generally ranging from 20 to 30 mph. Monday is also expected to bring the final high-tide cycle with coastal flooding. Flood Watches remain in effect across parts of New England through Monday night as additional rain could cause renewed flooding in already waterlogged areas. By Tuesday, lingering moisture will spread light rain into northern New England, while the Mid-Atlantic and Tri-State area dry out.

Nor’easter still disrupting travel: More than 500 flights delayed or canceled at Logan -  More than 500 Boston Logan Airport flights delayed or canceled as nor’easter’s effects linger. While Massachusetts has made it through the worst of the early-season nor’easter that barreled into the state this weekend, the storm was still snarling travel in and out of the Bay State Monday morning. At Logan International Airport in Boston, more than 500 flights in and out of the airport were either delayed or canceled. As of around 11:30 a.m., 323 flights were delayed, and 213 were canceled, according to the flight tracking service FlightAware. Most of the cancellations and delays involved flights operated by Republic Airways. Rain is expected to continue throughout the day Monday. There is an 80% to 100% chance of rain at Logan until 8 p.m. Monday, when the chances dip to 60% to 70%. Rain doesn’t exit the forecast until 3 a.m. Tuesday. A spokesperson for the Massachusetts Port Authority, which runs the airport, encouraged passengers to check with their airline before arriving at Logan. Visibility at the airport fell below 2 miles just after 8 a.m. Monday. While travel in and out of Logan remained impacted by the storm, other airports in the region were faring much better. At Bradley International Airport in Windsor Locks, Connecticut, just three flights were delayed and none were canceled. T.F. Green International Airport in Warwick, Rhode Island, listed just two delays Monday morning.

Hurricane Nolo strengthens to a Category 4 as it moves toward Papahanaumokuakea : Big Island Now - Hurricane Nolo is now moving toward Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument and is on track to arrive on Tuesday. Nolo has strengthened to a category 4 hurricane and additional strengthening is expected. A gradual weakening trend is likely to begin by late Monday.Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles.Swells generated by Nolo will be affecting south-facing shores of the main Hawaiian Islands for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Large surf associated with Nolo will affect the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument beginning on Monday. These large waves will likely inundate some of the low-lying atolls, especially from French Frigate Shoals to Nihoa.

Rain expected Tuesday for Kauai County as Hurricane Nolo continues to pass Hawaii | Honolulu Star-Advertiser

• 11 a.m. Hurricane Nolo’s winds eased slightly this morning as forecasters said the major hurricane has likely passed its peak intensity and begun a weakening trend. At 11 a.m., Nolo was packing maximum sustained winds of 145 mph and centered about 420 miles southwest of Honolulu and 475 miles south-southeast of French Frigate Shoals, moving west-northwest at 12 mph, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from Nolo’s center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles. Forecasters posted a new alert for the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument, warning that dangerous conditions are expected there starting Tuesday, and said a hurricane watch may be needed for additional portions of the monument later today, on top of the hurricane warning already in effect from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals. The storm’s longer-range track grew more uncertain, forecasters said, with the latest guidance shifted slightly south and west of earlier forecasts as an approaching upper-level low complicates Nolo’s path through midweek. CPHC forecasters said Nolo could briefly weaken below hurricane strength around the middle of the week before conditions turn more favorable again, potentially allowing some restrengthening by the weekend. The rainfall outlook also increased for the western islands. NWS forecasters now expect 3 to 6 inches of rain across Kauai and Niihau between Tuesday and Thursday as outer rain bands trail Nolo’s track, up from the 1 to 2 inches forecast earlier today, with the potential for flooding and mudslides in steep terrain. Fire weather conditions are expected to improve statewide over the next couple of days as winds weaken and humidity rises, forecasters said. Separately, the tropical disturbance well east-southeast of the islands, Invest 91E, remained at a 90% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within both the next 48 hours and the next seven days, according to the National Hurricane Center. The system is still expected to form later today or Tuesday and track generally northeastward, remaining well east of Hawaii.
• 2 p.m. Category 4 Hurricane Nolo has turned northwestward, farther away from the main Hawaiian Islands this afternoon. Beginning Tuesday, Kauai County will see more rain from Nolo’s outer bands, while dangerous conditions are expected near the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument. “Nolo is beginning to turn toward the northwest as it moves along the southwestern and western periphery of a mid-level high centered north of the main Hawaiian Islands,” according to the forecast. “The hurricane is forecast to turn toward the north on Tuesday as an intensifying upper-level low approaches from the northwest. The track forecast becomes more complex by midweek, as the strength and track of this low will play a significant role in determining Nolo’s subsequent motion.” As of 2 p.m., Nolo was located about 435 miles south-southeast of the French Frigate Shoals and about 415 miles west-southwest of Honolulu. Nolo was carrying maximum sustained winds of 145 mph with higher gusts and moving northwest at 12 mph. A hurricane warning remains in effect for the monument. The center of Nolo is forecast to remain well southwest and west of the main Hawaiian Islands then approach the monument on Tuesday. Nolo is expected to gradually weaken tonight and weaken more through the middle of this week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center, while tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles. Nolo will bring the following impacts affecting land:
• >> Wind: Tropical storm conditions are likely by Tuesday in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument, while hurricane conditions are expected by Wednesday.
• >> Rainfall: The outer rain bands of Nolo are expected to produce between 3 and 6 inches of rain across Kauai and Niihau between Tuesday and Thursday. The rainfall may lead to flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.
• >> Surf: Large swells associated with Nolo will affect the south- and west-facing shores of the main Hawaiian Islands over the next few days. The swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Large waves will affect the national monument later today, likely inundating some low-lying atolls, especially from French Frigate Shoals to Nihoa.
• 5 p.m. Nolo remains a major Category 3 hurricane as it moves west-southwest past the Hawaiian Islands. Dangerous conditions are expected within the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument beginning Tuesday. As of 5 p.m. today, Nolo was located about 390 miles south-southeast of the French Frigate Shoals and about 415 miles west-southwest of Honolulu. Nolo was carrying maximum sustained winds of 125 mph and moving northwest at 13 mph. The hurricane warning remains in effect for the national monument. Nolo is expected to turn north Tuesday and the center will remain well southwest and west of the main Hawaiian Islands. Nolo is forecast to approach the national monument Tuesday. Nolo will weaken over the next couple of days then gain strength again during the latter part of this week, forecasters said. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center, while tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles.
• UPDATE: 8 p.m. Nolo remains a major Category 3 hurricane as it moves west-southwest past the Hawaiian Islands. Dangerous conditions are expected within the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument beginning Tuesday. As of 8 p.m. Monday, Nolo was located about 330 miles south-southeast of the French Frigate Shoals and about 425 miles west-southwest of Honolulu. Nolo was carrying maximum sustained winds of 120 mph and moving northwest at 15 mph.

Hurricane Polo forecast to make two landfalls in Baja California Sur and Sonora, Mexico – (satellite videos) Category 3 Hurricane Polo was approaching Baja California Sur on September 28, 2026, as Hurricane Warnings covered sections of both coasts of the peninsula and mainland Sonora. At 05:00 MST (12:00 UTC), the National Hurricane Center placed Polo 175 km (110 miles) southwest of Cabo San Lázaro with maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h (115 mph), and forecast landfall in Baja California Sur late that afternoon or early evening before the cyclone reached southern Sonora as a hurricane late that night or early September 29. Satellite image of Hurricane Polo at 1150 UTC on September 28, 2026. At 12:00 UTC, Polo was centered approximately 175 km (110 miles) southwest of Cabo San Lázaro and 405 km (250 miles) south-southwest of Santa Rosalía. The hurricane was moving north-northeast at 17 km/h (10 mph), with one-minute sustained winds of 185 km/h (115 mph), and an estimated minimum central pressure of 958 hPa. Hurricane-force winds extended up to 65 km (40 miles) from the center, while tropical-storm-force winds extended up to 165 km (105 miles). Hurricane Warnings covered the west coast of Baja California Sur from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe, the east coast from Loreto to Bahía San Juan Bautista, and mainland Mexico from Bahía Kino to Huatabampito. Hurricane Watches and Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect on the west coast north of Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia, on the east coast south of Loreto to San Evaristo, and on the mainland south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo. Tropical-storm conditions were expected to begin in the southern part of the warning area during the morning of September 28, followed by hurricane conditions along the warned west coast by late afternoon. The conditions were forecast to spread northward and eastward across the peninsula through the night and reach the mainland warning area late September 28 or early September 29. Rainfall totals of 150–305 mm (6–12 inches) were forecast across parts of Baja California Sur. Southern and central Sonora were forecast to receive 100–150 mm (4–6 inches), with maximum totals near 200 mm (8 inches). The rainfall could produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, particularly in steep terrain. Polo is expected to turn northeast as a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico, and an amplifying trough over California steered the cyclone toward the peninsula. The center was forecast to move inland along Baja California Sur late on September 28, briefly cross the Gulf of California, and make a second landfall in southern Sonora late that night or early September 29. Increasing vertical wind shear was expected to cause some weakening, but the most likely scenario kept Polo near major-hurricane strength at the Baja California Sur landfall and at hurricane strength when it reached mainland Mexico. Rapid weakening was forecast after the second landfall as the circulation moved across the rugged terrain of northern Mexico. NHC said storm surge could produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds, accompanied by large and destructive waves. Swells affecting west-central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula were expected to generate life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding during the following two days. Baja California Sur suspended school activities through September 29 in all five municipalities and halted routine state, municipal and federal government work in the state on September 28 and 29. Maritime activities were also suspended, and the State Civil Protection Council established a command post in Comondú to coordinate preparedness and response. The state listed 169 potential temporary shelters with total capacity for 33 192 people. The inventory comprised 111 Plan A shelters and 58 Plan B facilities to be activated if conditions required. State officials identified Comondú, Loreto and Mulegé as the principal areas of concern and said ports remained closed to navigation. They urged residents to follow Civil Protection instructions and use temporary shelters when directed.

Hurricane Polo makes landfall in Baja California, toppling trees and flooding coastal communities (AP) — Hurricane Polo pummeled the Mexican state of Baja California Sur with powerful winds and rain as it made landfall Tuesday, leaving coastal areas flooded and streets littered with fallen trees. The Category 2 hurricane struck land just south of Las Barrancas, Mexico, about 80 miles (130 kilometers) north of Cabo San Lazaro with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph (175 kph). About 700 people remained in shelters Tuesday. But they were expected to return to their homes, and no serious damage or deaths were immediately reported, according to authorities. After the hurricane passed over the small fishing town of Puerto San Carlos on the Baja California peninsula, residents waded among downed trees through ankle-high water that flooded some homes. Seeing their roughened community largely intact brought relief to those who had prepared for the worst. Polo was expected to produce 6 to 12 inches (about 15 to 30 centimeters) of rain across parts of Baja California Sur. By late Tuesday morning, a weakened Polo made a second landfall and moved inland in the Mexican state of Sonora after crossing the Gulf of California. Forecasters predicted Polo would hit the Mexican mainland with life-threatening winds and flash floods. Sonora officials suspended all "nonessential" activities, including school, sports and nonessential work in the state capital and more than a dozen municipalities. Meanwhile, the hurricane center reported Tropical Storm Rachel was moving parallel to Mexico's coast early Tuesday. The storm was about 265 miles (425 kilometers) southwest of Lazaro Cardenos with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph (105 kph). It was moving west-northwest at 13 mph (20 kph). Bands of rain continued to sweep across the U.S. Southwest on Tuesday, causing desert rivers to surge and usually dry arroyos to rage with floodwater. Nearly all of the region was under flood watches as the complex system of tropical weather — with Polo the main event — spread northeast from Mexico. Forecasters warned north-central New Mexico including Albuquerque and Santa Fe could feel the brunt, with as much as 3 to 4 inches (about 8 to 10 centimeters) of rain through Wednesday and possibly more. "Definitely looking at the chances for urban flooding," said National Weather Service meteorologist Carter Greulich in Albuquerque. "Don't drive through flooded roadways. Remain out of the arroyos, especially in our urban areas." The system made a brisk pass through Phoenix early Tuesday, dumping up to 2 inches (5 centimeters) of rain before tapering. North of the city, a truck was swept away in a wash in the New River area. The driver got out safely, Maricopa County sheriff's officials said. The rocky, desert area typically gets less than 10 inches (25 centimeters) of rain annually with little vegetation to soak it up, making flash flooding a perpetual risk.

Hurricane Polo and remnants of Odalys bring heavy rain and flash flood risk across the Four Corners region, U.S. - --Heavy rain is forecast across the Four Corners region through 05:00 PT (12:00 UTC) on September 30, 2036, with 50–100 mm (2–4 inches) expected across much of eastern Arizona, western New Mexico, and the San Juan Mountains of southwestern Colorado. Moderate Risk excessive-rainfall outlooks, level 3 of 4, cover much of Arizona and New Mexico and parts of southern Utah and southern Colorado, corresponding to a ≥40% probability of flash flooding. Tropical moisture associated with Hurricane Polo and the remnants of Odalys is forecast to spread into the interior southwestern United States. A mid-level shortwave trough over California was forecast to slowly propagate eastward during the following few days, with tropical moisture and dynamical forcing for ascent downstream of the trough supporting moderate-to-heavy rainfall across the Four Corners region, especially Arizona and New Mexico. The National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center forecast at least 50–100 mm (2–4 inches) of total precipitation across much of eastern Arizona, western New Mexico, and the San Juan Mountains of southwestern Colorado through 05:00 PT (12:00 UTC) on September 30. Moderate Risk excessive-rainfall outlooks, level 3 of 4 and corresponding in the Quick Look to a ≥40% probability of flash flooding, were issued for much of Arizona and New Mexico and parts of southern Utah and southern Colorado. The Little Colorado River is forecast to exceed flood stage at Winslow and Holbrook, Arizona, later in the week, while six other stream gauges are forecast to exceed action stage. At Holbrook, the river was at 1.99 m (6.53 feet) at 12:30 MDT (18:30 UTC) on September 28. Flood stage is 4.72 m (15.5 feet), while the forecast hydrograph showed a rise to approximately 5.43 m (17.82 feet) around September 30. The higher value was forecast rather than observed at the time represented in the Quick Look. Integrated water vapor was forecast to exceed 40 mm over southern Arizona and approach 30 mm across portions of the Upper Colorado River Basin. CW3E linked the moisture from Polo and the remnants of Odalys with the eastward-moving shortwave trough as the setup supporting the regional rainfall. Deterministic and ensemble model guidance showed the potential for some watersheds in northeastern Arizona and northwestern New Mexico to receive more than 20% of normal total water-year precipitation from the event. Forecast precipitation amounts remained uncertain. The ECMWF ensemble generally favored higher totals across much of Arizona and southwestern Colorado than the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). In the Middle Little Colorado watershed, more than 50% of ECMWF ensemble members forecast more than 20% of annual precipitation, while approximately 50% of GEFS members forecast more than 10%. For the Middle Little Colorado watershed, the comparison showed a GEFS ensemble mean of approximately 37.3 mm (1.47 inches) and an ECMWF ensemble mean of 63.5 mm (2.50 inches), a difference of approximately 26.2 mm (1.03 inches). As of 08:00 PT (15:00 UTC) on September 28, Hurricane Polo was less than about 160 km (100 miles) west of the Baja Peninsula, with maximum sustained winds of approximately 185 km/h (115 mph). Polo was forecast to move northeastward during the following 36 hours, bringing storm surge, dangerous winds, extreme rainfall, and flash flooding to portions of Baja California Sur and western mainland Mexico. Moisture associated with Polo and the remnants of Odalys was forecast to spread into the interior southwestern United States.

"Seek Higher Ground Now": A Near Dam Failure In New Mexico Was Just The Warm-Up For A Record El Niño -A flood-control dam in southern New Mexico came close enough to failing Tuesday that the National Weather Service ordered people downstream to get out of the way. Forecasters issued a flash flood emergency for McLeod Dam near Garfield in Doña Ana County, after dam operators and county officials reported that failure was imminent:"This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!"  The county ordered evacuations for Hatch, Garfield, Salem, Rincon and Placitas. AccuWeather reported floodwaters pouring over the top of a 20-foot earthen dam in Garfield and breaching its wall. The county described something smaller: at 8:30 p.m., spokesperson Ariana Parra told the Albuquerque Journal that crews had mitigated "a very small piping failure," that no water was exiting the dam, and that pumps were on the way to relieve pressure.Orders for four of the five communities were lifted late Tuesday. Rincon remained evacuated as of late Tuesday because of standing floodwater.Watch: KOAT footage of flooding near McLeod Dam in Garfield. The dam's record was already bad before the rain. KRWG, citing the National Inventory of Dams, reported that McLeod's last inspection, in 2023, rated it "poor," classified it high-hazard, and found no emergency action plan in place. The high-hazard label rates what a failure would cost, including lives. The "poor" rating is the one that speaks to the structure itself. None of the county's public statements this week addressed what has been repaired, re-inspected or planned since 2023.The water that pushed McLeod to the edge came from the remnants of Hurricane Polo, which Fox Weather ranks as the second-most intense Eastern Pacific hurricane on record. Hurricane Rachel, now strengthening off Mexico, is the basin's 20th named storm and 10th hurricane of the season, and forecasters are crediting a strengthening El Niño with supercharging the Pacific. The same pattern had left the Atlantic with its least active start since 1941 as of early September.The winter phase, when El Niño does most of its work on the southern US, hasn't started. In its September update, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center put the odds of a very strong El Niño this fall and winter at more than 90%, with a 75% chance the key Niño-3.4 temperature anomaly tops +2.5°C in October-December. It already hit +1.8°C in August. The WMO's projection would make this the strongest El Niño since records began in 1950, as we detailed.  For New Mexico, that typically means a wetter, cooler winter. Forecasters told the Journal in June that the biggest precipitation increases are expected in the southern part of the state, which includes the Hatch Valley. Next door, California isn't waiting: Gov. Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency Sept. 21 to prepare for heavy rain, debris flows and flooding.CPC cautions that impacts from an event this size are more likely but not guaranteed. The dam that came within hours of failing Tuesday will face that winter carrying a 2023 "poor" rating, with no public account yet of what has been fixed.

Hurricane Rachel strengthens to a Category 3 storm off Mexico's Pacific coast(AP) — Hurricane Rachel has been upgraded to a Category 3 storm off Mexico’s Pacific coast as northern Mexico and parts of the U.S. Southwest were reeling from flooding and damage from the remnants of Hurricane Polo earlier this week.  The storm, located about 245 miles (390 kilometers) off the southern tip of Baja California, is slowly continuing westward at 3 miles per hour (4.8 kph) and expected to strengthen in the next day before weakening this weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center. The maximum sustained winds were 120 miles per hour (193 kph) as of Thursday afternoon. Rachel’s swells are expected to generate life-threatening surf and rip-current conditions off Mexico’s coast, the NHC warned. Mexican authorities said Thursday they remain on alert because of forecasts of very heavy rain in the states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Jalisco, and the possibility of landslides, rising river levels, overflowing rivers and flooding in low-lying areas. On Wednesday night, the U.S. Embassy in Mexico warned U.S. citizens in Cabos San Lucas, a popular vacation destination for Americans, of beach and port closures and deadly rip currents. The Pacific has seen an unusually busy hurricane season, which experts have attributed to El Niño, which has fueled crippling droughts in Mexico and Central America and floods in other parts of the region. In the Pacific, it has resulted in warmer waters and wind patterns that act as fodder for hurricanes. Tropical Storm Nolo continued its northwest approach away from Hawaii on Thursday, though the National Weather Service said it could strengthen into a hurricane by the weekend. Parts of northern Mexico were still reeling from floods and wider destruction left by Polo. Hundreds of people remained displaced or had their homes destroyed, and at least 13 municipalities remained flooded Thursday night, according to local authorities. Areas in Texas, Nebraska, Missouri and Iowa were still under flood watch Thursday afternoon as storm remnants continued to batter the region, flooding streets and neighborhoods and setting off water rescues. Wednesday was the wettest day on record for Lincoln, Nebraska, which received 6.1 inches of rainfall, according to the University of Nebraska-Lincoln Climate Office. In Omaha, which received 4.7 inches of rain Wednesday, the fire department said it responded to 80 water rescues over a three-hour period ending early Thursday. Some floodwaters reached depths of 8 feet. Schools remained open. But many buses never made it out of flooded parking lots, prompting officials to ask parents to transport their students to school. San Antonio, Texas, was under a flash-flood warning through Thursday evening, and the city urged residents to avoid unnecessary travel. More than 19,000 residents across the state were without power Thursday afternoon, according to PowerOutage.us. Videos posted on social media showed floodwaters in Texas creating waves along Interstate 35 in Denton. In Chicago, a wastewater treatment and stormwater management utility urged residents to conserve water use to prevent flooding and stormwater backup. “We encourage everyone to conserve water when possible to create more capacity in our systems,” utility President Kari K. Steele said in a statement Wednesday. In Kansas, Gov. Laura Kelly issued an emergency proclamation on Wednesday ahead of the storms that allows state resources to assist first responders in hard-hit communities.

Hurricane Rachel nears coast with life-threatening conditions -   Hurricane Rachel is nearing the West Coast as a Category 3 storm with life-threatening conditions. The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said Rachel was expected to strengthen more Friday as it travels off of Mexico’s Pacific Coast and parts of the U.S.Southwest. The storm was located Friday morning about 235 miles south off the southern tip of Baja California and moving west-northwest. The storm had maximum sustained winds of 120 miles per hour Thursday night, according to the hurricane center. Swells are expected to generate life-threatening surf and rip-current conditions off Mexico’s coast, the NHC warned. Heavy rain is also expected in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Jalisco. Landslides, rising river levels, overflowing rivers and flooding in low-lying areas have led to beach and port closures, including at the popular vacation destination in Cabos San Lucas. The region is still reeling from floods and destruction from Hurricane Polo that left hundreds displaced or had their homes destroyed. At least 13 municipalities remained flooded Thursday night, according to the Associated Press. Lucía Vegas told the AP she, her husband and three children were left homeless after flooding in the small town of Bacabachi in the border state of Sonora. Their dog woke the family as floodwaters were rising, prompting them to climb a ladder onto the roof. “Right now, we have been left with nothing,” the 39-year-old Vegas said through tears. Polo also caused heavy rain and flooding in parts of the U.S. The AP reports areas in Texas, Nebraska, Missouri and Iowa were still under flood watch Thursday afternoon as storm remnants continued to batter the region; Lincoln, Nebraska received a record 6.1 inches of rainfall on Wednesday.. Fox Weather reports hurricane landfalls on Baja California are rare, but El Niño has fueled an unusually busy hurricane season in the Pacific Ocean. Rachel is the 20th named storm and 10th hurricane of 2026 in the Pacific basin. In the Atlantic Ocean, no hurricanes have formed to date this year. It’s the longest season without a hurricane in the Atlantic since 1914.

El Niño gives the Atlantic its first hurricane-free September in 30 years -The Atlantic Ocean has failed to produce a hurricane in the month of September for the first time in more than 30 years, the latest feat by a super El Niño widely predicted to become the strongest ever.  Only three other Septembers have gone hurricane-free in the Atlantic in records dating back to 1950. It last happened in 1994, and before that in 1972 and 1962, according to Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane expert with Colorado State University. Three tropical storms did form last month, so the Atlantic wasn’t completely closed for business. Of those, Tropical Storm Fay was closest to hurricane intensity. Its winds fell short by 4 mph, but there’s a chance Fay gets upgraded in the National Hurricane Center’s final review. The numbers have been stark. The average for a season is seven hurricanes, and we should have seen five of them by now. Last year was below average, with five hurricanes — but four had already shown up by the start of October, three of which came in September.  September is usually prime time for hurricanes because storm-fueling warm water is at its most expansive and hottest alongside ripe atmospheric factors. About two to three hurricanes develop in the month on average. This El Niño-stifled season had already blown past the most reliable record for the longest wait for the first hurricane to materialize, and the lack of any as October begins sets the stage for an even rarer possibility: an entire Atlantic season without hurricanes. Water temperatures have been warm enough for Atlantic hurricanes, but El Niño-fueled wind shear is the biggest reason the season has been squashed.Wind shear refers to changes in wind speed and direction at different levels of the atmosphere, and it can shred apart anything from budding tropical systems to full-blown hurricanes.The shear has been record-strong since this summer across parts of the Atlantic’s so-called main development region, which extends from Africa through the Caribbean, according to Klotzbach. As the name suggests, this is where many storms get their start at the height of the season — mid-August to early October — but this year it’s been nearly shutdown.The eight tropical storms that have formed so far in 2026. Most of them have been short-lived.  Tropical storms Dolly and Gonzalo are the only systems that have formed in this part of the ocean so far, and a wall of wind shear ripped both of them apart. Dolly lasted one day; Gonzalo almost made it two. Meanwhile, El Niño’s extremely warm water has turned hurricane season in the eastern and central Pacific hyperactive. A total of 20 named storms — including three Category 5 hurricanes — have roamed those ocean basins. Hurricane Polo’s extreme rapid intensification to a Category 5 with 180 mph winds off the coast of Mexico last week tied it as the third strongest eastern Pacific hurricane on record. And Hawaii is enduring hurricane fatigue after Lala, Lowell and Nolo all swiped by the island chain with heavy rain and strong winds. There have been just two years without an Atlantic hurricane: 1914 and 1907. But both come with an asterisk since they were before satellites and aircraft started tracking hurricanes more accurately, so one could have been missed.

The 2026 Super El Niño is Breaking Records, With Winter 2026/2027 Weather Impacts Ahead   - The 2026 Super El Niño continues its historic rapid intensification across the equatorial Pacific ahead of Winter 2026/2027. New oceanic and atmospheric data confirm another major jump in strength. Latest long-range data predict this event is on track to become one of the most intense El Niño events in over a century. This surge in power is driven by record-breaking westerly wind bursts and a collapse of the Pacific trade winds. The atmosphere is already responding worldwide, locking in a stationary wave pattern that will dominate global circulation for several months, likely deep into Spring. El Niño is a warm ocean anomaly in the central and eastern Tropical Pacific. It comes to life through shifts in tropical winds and broad pressure changes. When these events grow past a certain threshold, we call them (unofficially) Super El Niño events. In recent weeks, the Super El Niño event has been the world’s top weather news, and for good reason. It has followed previous forecasts and strengthened rapidly, becoming a major global weather driver for 2026/2027. While a moderate event produces a mild wave pattern, a Super El Niño triggers a far more aggressive shift in the jet stream. The transition from a Moderate to an Extreme El Niño leads to a deeper Pacific trough and a stronger Canadian ridge, forming an amplified atmospheric highway. This favors milder conditions in the northern U.S. and south Canada, while driving an active storm track across the southern United States. The image above is from a study (linked below) that compared winter pressure anomalies during different El Niño events. Below is my combined analysis image of the last 4 Super El Niño events, showing their typical ocean temperature profile. You can see a very strong warm anomaly across the central and eastern tropical Pacific, with peak areas exceeding +4°C (+7°F). This proximity to North America means direct, strong impacts on seasonal weather in the United States and Canada. While El Niño events happen every few years, Super events are rare and usually occur once per decade or less. To create such a strong event, we need a combined effort from the oceans and the atmosphere. The latest analysis data confirms this process is occurring at a very high level. This allowed a record-strong El Niño to unfold, with at least 2 months left before it reaches peak power. But we can already see obvious winter weather impacts, which you will be able to explore further down in our full Winter Explorer. The latest analysis from NOAA CRW ocean data below shows the ENSO area covered in very strong anomalies. You can see the peak warmth in the eastern parts reaching well over 6°C (11°F) above normal over a large area. This is a substantial anomaly, with very rapid El Niño growth. And the peak strength is still around 2 months away. The unusually rapid growth can be seen in the latest analysis graph below for the main ENSO region. It compares the evolution of the current versus past Super El Niño events. You can see right away just how much stronger the 2026 Super El Niño is at this stage, far above the previous events in terms of raw ocean anomaly. We have detected accelerated El Niño growth and strengthening since early summer. The 2026 event has quickly surpassed the last Super El Niño event (2015-2016) in speed and strength, and has also surpassed all events in recent decades. But surface anomalies are only the final result of even stronger, invisible forces at play. The true power that is driving this rapid warming and Super El Niño development sits deep below the ocean surface and in the atmosphere. Below is the subsurface temperature anomaly across the tropical Pacific. In the top 200m (650ft) of the ocean, you can see the engine of the 2026/2027 Super El Niño event: a powerful downwelling Kelvin Wave, with peak anomalies over 10 degrees (18°F) above normal. It is still slowly pushing eastward and rising toward the surface. This shows us that the surface anomalies are just the final footprint of this massive subsurface warm core. Here we can see the full reversal of the usual thermal cycle under the ENSO regions, explaining the record-strong event on the surface. I produced a video below that shows the development of these subsurface temperature anomalies over the past weeks. You can clearly see the movement and growth of this large Kelvin Wave and its eventual rise as a Super El Niño in the eastern parts. But even these strong Kelvin Waves below the surface are driven by the westerly wind burst across the tropical Pacific, pushing the warmer subsurface ocean waters to the east, where they rise to the surface. This now leads us to the atmospheric part of the record El Niño story. Below is the zonal wind ranking for July and August 2026, which I calculated using the latest ERA5 data. You can see how the westerly wind anomaly in the past two months compares to the past 86-year record. In the past two months, a broad region of the western and central equatorial Pacific recorded its strongest low-level westerly wind anomalies on record, with surrounding areas ranking in the top five. This matters because achieving such an absolute record in an 86-year dataset for a two-month average requires a major trade wind collapse. This is the “smoking gun” showing that the record atmospheric shift is behind one of the strongest El Niño events to develop. And this shift is also visible in the ocean heat content below, which looks at the ocean down to 300m (1000ft) depth. You can really see an expanding warm subsurface anomaly across the tropical Pacific and ENSO regions from Spring to now, driven by the westerly wind bursts that push the warm Kelvin Wave eastward. Continued westerly winds will help further sustain and strengthen the Super El Niño anomalies. The image above also shows the emerging cold area in the western Pacific. That occurs as the strong westerly winds push warm waters east, bringing up deeper, colder water in the west. Below is the latest forecast of the trade winds across the tropics. You can see sustained strong westerly wind-burst anomalies (warm hues) over the main El Niño region. This will further strengthen the 2026/2027 super event, which is predicted to peak in November-December.

This year’s El Niño looks a lot like 1997. What happened then? - This year’s El Niño is shaping up to be the strongest in recorded history. That makes it tough to compare to prior years, but if we wanted to look to history for answers, we should go back in time to 30 years ago.Looking at trade wind patterns, Columbia University climate scientist Azhar Ehsan said in a September media briefing that this year’s atmospheric evolution looks similar to that of 1997, when one of the strongest-ever El Niños formed.That winter was characterized by broken records and “unusual extremes,” climate researchers said in an April 1998 National Climatic Data Center report. It was the country’s second-warmest and seventh-wettest winter since 1895.The super-strong El Niño contributed to chaotic weather from coast-to-coast. While the Northeast was hit with ice storms, the Southeast and California were drenched with flooding rain. Deadly tornadoes also tore across Florida.Typically during an El Niño winter, the southern half-to-third of the country is wetter than normal, while the northern states are warmer and drier.In the winter of 1997-1998, the weather was warm and wet for much of the country. California had its wettest winter on record, as did North Dakota. Several other states had their second-wettest winters: Florida, Maryland, Nevada, Rhode Island and Virginia. Florida was drenched in December, with Tampa receiving more than 15 inches of rain. In January, New Orleans received more than 19 inches, Mobile, Alabama, had 17 inches, and Asheville, North Carolina, had 10. A bad storm in early January caused flooding, ice storms and tornadoes across the eastern half of North America. The death toll was 56 across the U.S. and Canada. Hundreds of homes were destroyed, and millions were left without power.The following month, California and the Southwest were hit with “four weeks of nearly continuous storminess,” which triggered mudslides and widespread flooding.Even places that didn’t get dumped on hardly saw the sun. Des Moines, Iowa, had an 11-day cloud streak in December, the report said, and the normally sunny Albuquerque, New Mexico, saw no sun in the days leading up to Christmas.People accustomed to freezing winters found themselves with unseasonably warm weather.“The warmest February on record took place in much of the upper midwest and parts of the east including Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Connecticut,” the report reads.For the first time ever, cities in northern Montana recorded no temperatures below freezing in December 1997. By the end of February, Lake Erie at Buffalo was still unfrozen, with water temperature at 36 degrees. One upside of the weird weather was that that heating costs were 10% lower nationwide when compared to a normal year. That sort of savings might be welcome in 2026, as energy costs have soared. Models indicate this year’s El Niño will be even stronger than the 1997-1998 pattern. Expected to be super-strong, the climate phenomenon is likely to fuel drought in some areas, flooding in others, and as many as 451,000 weather-related deaths globally.With a strong or “super” El Niño, we’re more likely to see the typical pattern of warm and dry weather up north, and cold and wet weather down south. Where the dividing line falls varies year to year, depending on the position of the jet stream.This year’s El Niño has been gaining strength since it first arrived on the scene over the summer. National forecasters say there is a 75% chance we’ll see “a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950.”While El Niño doesn’t usually reach its peak strength until the winter months, there are already signs it has been influencing the weather in late summer and early fall. It’s one of the reasons we’ve seen such a quiet Atlantic hurricane season, but an active storm season in the Pacific.The temperature and precipitation outlooks for the rest of the year are also in line with a classic El Niño pattern.

Inside the anti-climate campaign against researchers - Conservative organizations are filing open records requests by the dozens at public universities, demanding emails, research drafts, correspondence with law firms and other documents from academics studying climate change. Targets and their allies say it’s all an effort to undermine the role climate research is playing in litigation against U.S. fossil fuel companies. It’s the latest strategy in a decades-long campaign by right-leaning groups to discredit scholars whose work could persuade judges and juries in the high-stakes climate cases. Now it’s gathering steam amid a growing push by the Trump administration to block dozens of lawsuits levied at energy companies by communities that were affected by extreme weather. A POLITICO investigation has uncovered more than 100 open records requests filed at 19 public universities across the country, targeting at least 30 researchers over the past five years. More than half have been filed since President Donald Trump’s reelection in November 2024. Special interest groups have for years used public records to investigate and intimidate academics who are conducting research they disagree with or oppose. But the current wave of requests constitutes a larger and more targeted campaign against researchers whose work could be used by lawyers to advance climate lawsuits. Many of the lawsuits are in early stages, meaning there is scant public documentation showing how the records requests may factor into specific cases.“I have never seen this many open records requests in such a short time,” said Lauren Kurtz, executive director of the nonprofit Climate Science Legal Defense Fund, which was founded in 2011 to protect free and open debate within the scientific community, and where many scientists seek advice when they’ve received an open records request. “There is a very concerted effort to derail the state climate litigation cases going on.” Thousands of climate lawsuits have been filed over the last 25 years, and around two dozen such cases are currently moving through the nation’s courts. None in the U.S. have so far forced fossil fuel companies to pay for climate-related damages. But legal experts have long argued that advancements in climate science — particularly extreme event attribution science, which uses climate models to demonstrate the influence of greenhouse gas emissions on natural disasters — could strengthen climate litigation. “If any of these [pending cases] actually do get to trial on the merits, climate attribution will become a central issue,” said Michael Gerrard, founder and faculty director of Columbia University’s Sabin Center for Climate Change Law. POLITICO quantified climate-litigation-related requests by searching universities’ online open records portals, which contain public archives of the requests they’ve received, or by using open records laws to obtain these archives in states where local or state governments have sued the fossil fuel industry. POLITICO also interviewed more than a dozen academics targeted with open records requests within the past year. Some of them were granted anonymity because they were concerned that speaking publicly might deter other scientists from working with them or attract more records requests.At least nine nonprofits, law firms, consulting companies and other organizations have targeted climate researchers with records requests over the past five years, POLITICO’s analysis found. The majority of requests come from two conservative nonprofits focused on transparency in government: The Patriots Foundation and Government Accountability & Oversight. Neither responded to requests for comment.The Patriots Foundation has not publicly discussed its reasons for filing open records requests. But Government Accountability & Oversight has expressed its opposition to climate litigation by publishing blog posts that question the credibility of researchers or lawyers involved in the lawsuits. Some legal experts say that could weaken lawsuits that cite scientific studies as evidence.Climate scientists are wary of these information-gathering requests, fearful that the findings could be cherry-picked by those who seek to undermine their research.

‘Love letter’: California AG takes aim at Trump’s links to Big Oil - California Attorney General Rob Bonta is angling for a high-profile legal fight with the president that he says could derail the administration’s sweeping effort to gut climate regulations. The Democrat has led lawsuits to stop the Trump administration from canceling offshore wind projects, withholding clean energy funding and eliminating hallmark climate pollution rules. His biggest test is a likely Supreme Court matchup. Bonta is gearing up to argue against the administration’s attempt to undercut federal responsibility for regulating greenhouse gas emissions. “Can we guarantee it? No,” Bonta said on the POLITICO Energy podcast, referring to a Supreme Court win. “But we are confident because we have the facts and the law on our side.” California is leading the multistate lawsuit against the EPA’s move to revoke the endangerment finding, which determined that greenhouse gases are a danger to human health. That finding is the foundation for the federal climate regulations that President Donald Trump is attempting to revoke, including the EPA rule limiting carbon dioxide from power plants that the agency axed this month. The high court has changed since it required the agency to issue an endangerment finding nearly 20 years ago. Back then, Chief Justice John Roberts wrote a scathing dissent in the 2007 case Massachusetts v. EPA, and was joined by justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas. Now they’re in the majority, after Trump’s appointment of three conservative justices. “There were fears that the U.S. Supreme Court was gonna do Trump’s bidding and never find for California, even if we had the facts and law on our side. And you know, we have won at the U.S. Supreme Court on key centerpiece policies of the Trump administration,” Bonta said, citing victories on the state’s redistricting plan and preventing federal deployment of National Guard troops. Many of Trump’s environmental fights are still brewing. His administration has restarted oil and gas development off California’s coast and paid offshore wind developers billions of dollars to abandon their leases. Bonta’s office filed a lawsuit Tuesday over Trump’s handling of offshore wind. Trump’s most direct shot is aimed at Sacramento’s ability to exceed federal limits on vehicle emissions. The Clean Air Act lets California set tougher restrictions through a waiver process to deal with its persistent smog pollution. That policy would help the state achieve its goal of banning new sales of vehicles with internal combustion engines by 2035. Trump is trying to undermine that target. EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin reclassified those waivers as a rule, which he sent to Congress to nullify through the Congressional Review Act. A federal court ruled that it’s illegal, and EPA has appealed. “It is undisputed under the law that a waiver is an order and it’s not a rule and it’s not subject to the Congressional Review Act,” Bonta said. “So we’ll take that to any court.” Whether Californians support the state’s EV goal is another matter. More than half of likely voters — 54 percent — said they oppose the 2035 ban on new gas-powered car sales, according to a POLITICO poll. A leading candidate for governor, Xavier Becerra, a Democrat who’s running to fill the open seat left by the upcoming departure of Gov. Gavin Newsom, has cast doubt on the goal. But Becerra says he believes it is still within reach. Bonta dismissed concerns that California’s climate policies are at odds with voters’ concerns about cost of living. “California is gonna be California,” he said. “I don’t think we’re out of touch. I think we lead.” Instead, Bonta argued that Trump’s policies have stoked affordability problems. He rejected Trump’s claims that clean energy is more expensive, saying that ignoring climate change imposes costs related to things like wildfires and floods. Tariffs and the war with Iran have also spiked prices, including for gas, he said. Bonta also challenged Trump’s relationships with the fossil fuel industry and corporations, accusing him of failing to enforce antitrust laws. “Trump has been writing an ongoing love letter, or at least attempting to, to the fossil fuel industry, writing different chapters and different verses and trying to provide them giveaways time and time again,” he said.

Texas Railroad Commission Approves ExxonMobil's Rose CCS Project The Texas Railroad Commission (RRC) has approved the state’s first new carbon-capture project since it assumed primacy for Class VI injection wells in December 2025. ExxonMobil’s Rose CCS project southwest of Beaumont in Jefferson County was approved by a 2-1 vote of the RRC on September 16. The project’s three wells would permanently store about 4 million MT per year of carbon dioxide (CO2) over 13 years, or about 52 million MT overall. ExxonMobil said the project would recover CO2 from industrial sources in the region, with an 18-mile pipeline connecting to the storage area. The RRC’s application tracker, last updated September 22, details the status of 20 projects, with different phases of the same project listed separately. The only projects listed as Approved (green bar in chart below) involve Oxy Low Carbon Ventures’ Brown Pelican site in Ector County. The initial Class VI permits were approved by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in May 2025, before the RRC gained primacy, and an amended application was approved by the commission in August 2026. The projects not yet approved fall into several categories (blue bars). A project noted as Under Review means the RRC is evaluating its technical, geological and engineering data. A project in the Draft Permit stage is drafting permit and notice documents for the public-comment period. A project listed as Pending RAD Response means the operator has a pending request for additional documents from the RRC. A project classified as Draft Doc6 is drafting the hearing packet for the RRC’s Hearings Division. A project with a Hearing status means that its application is currently with the Hearings Division. (The permits for the Rose CCS project take effect 45 days after approval, so that project’s status is still listed as Hearing.) In addition, the tracker shows that four projects have been put on hold by the operator (yellow bar) and two have been withdrawn (red bar).

Congressional Republicans want permitting reform. An Ohio project shows how tricky that could be. - Lawmakers want to see projects like high voltage transmission lines get up and running quickly, but a transmission project in Western Ohio has drawn local pushback. Several of Ohio’s GOP Congressmen swung through Columbus recently to tout the importance of permitting reform. With data centers driving demand for power and an ocean of natural gas beneath our feet, they argued, federal red tape can’t be the bottle neck delaying new pipelines and transmission lines from getting built. “We can have all the energy in the world from oil and natural gas, but if we can’t move it from point A to point B, it’s worthless,” Bowling Green U.S. Rep. Bob Latta said after a panel discussion hosted by the Ohio Manufacturers Association. At a different event hosted by Arnold Ventures and the Club for Growth, Ohio Republican U.S. Sen. Jon Husted said permitting reform could end “junk lawsuits” and the “political gamesmanship” of energy policy whipsawing from one administration to the next. “We literally have the opportunity through things like permitting reform to reduce the time it takes to do things like build roads and bridges, to build transmission lines, to build power supply that people need to fund and run all of these different operations,” Husted said. A major energy transmission project in Western Ohio offers a glimpse of just how difficult a needle lawmakers are trying to thread. State and local officials seemingly agree that investments in energy infrastructure are worthwhile. The problem is they also agree those investments should be made elsewhere. Grid Growth Ventures, a company with backing from AEP and FirstEnergy, is planning to run power lines from two substations in Central Ohio all the way to the Indiana border. The project will carry high voltage power for hundreds of miles on steel lattice structures from 130 to 175 feet tall. Demand for power in Ohio is growing, and transmission lines like the Grid Growth project are meant to serve that expanding capacity. In a press release, the company compared transmission lines to interstate highways, “helping move power more efficiently to where it is needed most while creating multiple transmission pathways that strengthen reliability across the region.” The regional grid operator, PJM Interconnect, manages the transmission network across its 13-state footprint. PJM approved the Grid Growth’s project in February as part of a broader effort to expand the network’s capacity and reliability. “This project is not being built for hypothetical future growth.” Grid Growth spokesperson Lauren Siburkis said in an emailed statement. “PJM identified critical reliability vulnerabilities in this region and selected this project as the solution to address those needs and help ensure power can continue flowing safely and reliably to millions of homes and businesses across Ohio.” Grid Growth West project map. (Image from Grid Growth’s project announcement packet.) The company must now get approval from the Ohio Power Siting Board for a specific route. The board has several options before it. The members can accept or reject the proposal, make modifications, or apply conditions to the project’s buildout.

Most data centers are still refusing to say how much water and electricity they use - A new Lighthouse Reports investigation has found most European data centers are still obscuring their actual environmental impacts from the public despite EU rules aiming to improve transparency around energy and water reporting. Among the included metrics are water and energy consumption, renewable energy use, waste-heat use and cooling efficiency, however while they may be reporting to governments, Lighthouse Reports argues that obtaining this information as a member of the public is far harder. The report also criticizes the EU for exposing efficiency labels, much like your household appliance, rather than the actual raw data. Without access to the raw data, communities and policymakers can have a hard time judging the environmental impact of a proposed or operational data center, because even the most efficient hyper scale campus will still consume huge amounts of electricity and water. In a Netherlands example, of the 186 500kW+ data centers operating in the country by late 2025, only 44 offered public electricity consumption figures and 47 offered water consumption figures. However, Lighthouse Reports claims that Netherlands reporting is actually among the most transparent, and after trying to make similar attempts across all 27 EU member states, numerous requests were denied because they didn't possess the relevant information or because they deemed it confidential. "The Commission has bowed to confidentiality clauses demanded by the industry," Lighthouse Reports concludes. The group has since one on to file a complaint under the Aarhus Convention, claiming the EU is breaching the Convention's guarantees to "rights of access to information, public participation in decision-making, and access to justice in environmental matters." TechRadar Pro has asked the European Commission for a response to the report and subsequent complaint, but we did not receive an immediate response.

Ohioans should be leery of data centers and secrecy they come with -George Banziger, Ph.D., of Marietta -  Data centers upset the local economy and drive local people away who have lived here for generations and may wish to pursue much-needed agricultural pursuits.  State representatives Kevin Ritter, R-Marietta, and Justin Pizzulli, R-Scioto Valley, say people living in areas impacted by data centers should be measurably better off economically once they are built. If data centers − which exploit local natural resources with minimal benefit to communities − are like other natural resources extracted from Appalachian areas, there will be minimal benefit accruing to local communities.The representatives’ Aug. 28 Dispatch guest column, “A data center in Appalachia should help Appalachia,” is full of other claims about data centers that ignore actual facts.It’s well documented that the natural gas boom, which started in Ohio in 2008, did little to improve the local economy, raise employment levels or increase income levels of the average person living in southeast Ohio, according to “Frackalachia,” a comprehensive study by the Ohio River Valley Institute, a nonpartisan think tank analyzing those three factors in 30 fracked counties in Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia. Stephen Stoll, in his book “Ramp Hollow,” chronicles in detail the long history of exploitation of the Appalachian region, starting with George Washington surveying the area for the Virginia elite, followed by its exploitation for timber, then coal, then natural gas – all for the benefit of outsiders.And now we have data centers.   Ritter and Pizzulli also claim decisions determining data centers “closest to home should be made closest to home.” Non-disclosure agreements, such as those developed in Ritter’s 94th District involving the Waterford community of Washington County, do nothing to bring data center decisions “closest” to home. In fact, the secrecy involved with NDAs is a major reason many locals are suspicious of them. Additionally, in the rural Waterford community, before a data center was proposed there, farmland sold at $3,000 to $5,000 per acre.Now data center developers are offering up to $35,000 an acre to use agricultural land to build hyperscale data centers.This upsets the local economy and drives local people away who have lived here for generations and may wish to pursue much-needed agricultural pursuits. Republican gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy himself has said that data centers should be built on industrial sites, not farmland. There are ways data centers could be built to ensure positive outcomes for local communities. One way is the development of community benefit agreements, which ensure that local workers are hired for long-term employment at livable wages; greenspace is provided to local communities; funded apprenticeships leading to permanent jobs are arranged; annual reports of water and energy use are provided; and long-term studies of public health in the impacted areas are conducted.Data center developers may tell communities they will create hundreds of local permanent jobs, but the reality is that they lead to no more than a few dozen on average per data center, which is almost equivalent to the number of employees at one high school in our area.The track record for data center developers on telling the truth is not good and should not give any comfort to the people of Appalachia Ohio. Often, data centers are developed with no public notice, no public information sessions and no public hearings.  Of great concern is the rise in electric utility costs for residents, extreme water use and greenhouse gas emissions that cause respiratory disease, asthma, COPD and other health issues, in addition to heating our already-burning planet.Perhaps data centers would be more welcome in Appalachia and in Ohio if electric energy to power these centers relied more on renewable energy rather than just natural gas, a policy that the Ohio General Assembly follows that I would characterize as a war on renewables. According to the website Heatmap, 25 data center projects were canceled in 2025, and 60 local governments declared a moratorium on the development of data centers.Recent national polls have shown that fully 75% of Americans are opposed to data centers in their communities. This lack of popularity is shared by those in Appalachia and will continue as long as the historical exploitation of this region continues. Clearly, Ramaswamy is getting the people’s message on data centers when he says that there should be a moratorium on data center development until there is comprehensive data center regulation. As Ohio legislators, do Ritter and Pizzulli support Ramaswamy on this issue of a comprehensive regulation plan?

Ohio bill would ban property tax abatements for data centers - — An Ohio bill introduced this month would prohibit data centers from receiving property tax exemptions. House Bill 999 would ban any state or local agency from granting property tax exemptions to data centers. Rep. Daniel Troy (D-Willowick) said his legislation would ban future property tax abatements and examine if existing ones could be terminated. See previous coverage in the video player above. “These property tax incentives are nothing more than unjustified giveaways,” Troy said. “Ensuring that these data centers are required to pay all of their property taxes will certainly help lessen the burden on residential property owners and constitute significant relief in that area.” Troy has been working with state Rep. David Thomas (R-Jefferson) to ease property tax burdens for Ohioans. In part, the pair examined property tax abatements for data centers, which are hard to track holistically because they are typically given out at the local level. Thomas is not a current sponsor of H.B. 999 but has also spoken out about possible changes to property tax abatements. “No more property tax, that means even the big folks, they’re going to have to pay their property tax share which will then lower the bills for all the other property owners,” Thomas said earlier this month. A Scioto Analysis survey of 40 economists from Ohio universities published Sept. 21 found 62% of experts think local property tax abatements are effective for attracting new data center development. Five respondents were uncertain, and 27% disagreed that they would be effective. Property tax abatements vary across municipalities. In 2021, Columbus approved 15 years of no property taxes for a Google shell company data center, an estimated $54 million tax break. In Hilliard, Amazon saved $5.4 million in 2024 in not having to pay property taxes on its data centers. In New Albany, a recognized hub for data centers, developments are typically given property tax abatements for the first 10-15 years to “level the playing field when competing with other states” for economic commitments. Larger projects can get up to 30 year deals. New Albany requires a minimum payment from data centers each year annually based on a formula to ensure some funding comes in. “I certainly am not suggesting that we put out the welcome mat for data centers in Ohio, but if these highly profitable entities are going to show up in our state, we need to make sure that they pay property taxes that correspond to their whole value,” Troy said. House Bill 999 goes beyond a previous bill that had considered limiting property tax breaks for data centers, House Bill 646. H.B. 646 would enact several guardrails on data centers, including limiting property tax abatements to no more than 50% and requiring enforcement of any promises made in order to qualify for a tax break. House Bill 646 nearly passed at the Statehouse before legislators entered an extended summer break but was stalled over disagreements regarding the future of state sales tax breaks for data centers. Whereas property tax breaks are given at the local level, Ohio also offers a sales tax exemption for data centers that promise large investments.Troy said the sales tax exemption cost the state $1.6 billion as of 2025. In early June, Gov. Mike DeWine enacted an indefinite pause on the sales tax exemption for new grantees, although existing agreements are still in place.Although the Statehouse will hold an emergency session Wednesday to consider pausing the gas tax, it is unlikely action on data centers will be taken until after the November election when legislators return from break. H.B. 999 awaits a committee assignment.

How a $1 billion data center fell apart in Ohio – Hamilton wanted a data center. The Butler County city of around 65,000 had set aside almost 30 acres in an "innovation district" for it. The city, which runs its own electric utility, had lined up the developer. It expected $1 billion in investments.And then the project fell apart. What happened in this city about 30 miles north of Cincinnati shows how volatile the quest for data centers can be. While there was some public opposition to the project, that wasn't what killed it. And the data center wouldn't have gobbled up farmland; it was destined for an empty lot in a city eager for development. Despite years of work in Hamilton, the project quietly died after a New York City-based developer took over the project. That company tried to quadruple its capacity amid surging demand for data centers, driven by the artificial intelligence boom. And that was too big for Hamilton. Ohio has 240 data centers in various stages of development, ranking sixth in the nation, according to Data Center Map. And more could be coming to the state, with the office of the Ohio Consumers' Counsel estimating that companies will invest $40 billion more in data centers by 2030. But many of these projects could face uncertain futures as cities, enticed by economic investment, scramble to figure out how to support the energy- and water-intensive data centers. Cincinnati-based developer Logistix first entered a sale and development agreement with the city in July 2024. In this agreement, obtained by The Enquirer through a public records request, Logistix agreed to pay $65,000 per acre for the land. Logistix agreed to invest around $15 million into the project and employ at least 10 full-time employees. Almost immediately, the project faced backlash from Hamilton residents, who, like others in communities across the country, worried about noise, electricity and water use. But city officials assured them in public meetings that residents' electric costs wouldn't rise and the city would weigh all the benefits and risks before making a final decision on the center. Hamilton is the only Ohio city that operates its own electric, natural gas, water and wastewater utilities. Then, a New York-based investment firm that had recently launched a nationwide effort to build more hyperscale data centers across North America joined the project. A subsidiary of Wharton Equity Partners signed an agreement with the city in July 2025 to take over, according to records. An arm of the company, Wharton Digital, announced a partnership with developer LightHouse Data Centers to create more data centers across the U.S. seven months before. Douglas Swain, president of Logistix, said he fully handed the project off to Wharton Equity Partners toward the end of 2025. When it took over, Wharton also wanted to quadruple the data center's capacity, Swain said. He said he initially proposed just 40-80 megawatts for the data center, but Wharton wanted it to be able to use over 200 megawatts. However, studies showed the city's power system couldn't reliably support this ask. A December 2025 power system study found that Hamilton's existing power system is "not configured to reliably support any additional datacenter load." A different study from January 2026 looked at ways the city could modify its existing transmission lines to accommodate the center but still found that it would increase the risk of power outages, require more construction and cost the city over $29.7 million. During a Hamilton City Council meeting in January, City Manager Craig Bucheit said an impact study showed it would take at least 24 months to deliver 45 megawatts of electrical power for the data center. The developers wanted to know if it could receive at least 240 megawatts. "What we do know is that it's going to take a significant amount of time, money and infrastructure to meet the project needs that have been set out," Bucheit said during the meeting. After receiving the impact study results in January, Bucheit said the developers asked to pause future studies. Months later, Wharton terminated its development agreement with the city in May, according to Mallory Greenham, Hamilton's director of economic development. Records show that Wharton terminated its contract with the city shortly before its "Due Diligence Period" − the time available for developers to inspect and study the property − was set to expire on June 30, 2026. Wharton would have had to close on the property by Dec. 31, 2026. A representative for Wharton Equity Partners did not respond to two emails, a phone call and a text seeking more information on the group's decision to not move forward with the project. In the agreement termination notice, obtained by The Enquirer, Wharton did not include a specific reason behind the decision not to move forward. "This decision was made only after careful review and consideration, and we remain grateful for the time andeffort the City and its team have devoted to the project," the group said in the notice. D The data center was supposed to be a major part of the Hamilton Innovation District, a project between the city and Miami University Hamilton to develop the area around the university's regional campus. The 230-acre innovation center includes the Miami University Hamilton campus and the former Vora Technology Park. Miami University purchased the technology park in 2024, transforming it into a school focused on advanced manufacturing for Miami and Butler Tech students. The Innovation District Master Plan from 2025 included 31 acres dedicated for the data center. A page on Wharton Equity Partner's website appears to reference the now-abandoned data center plan. The page said Wharton Digital was developing a data center in the Midwest with a capacity up to 240 megawatts. The two-story data center would be on land "owned by the municipality which also owns the power utility." The data center would also be part of the "municipality's 'Innovation District' which includes the campus of a major Midwest university" − all characteristics that match the project in Hamilton. "WD plans to integrate the project into the fabric of the district and provide students with interactive learning opportunities regarding data centers and artificial intelligence," the page read. Alecia Lipton, Miami University director of media and public relations, said in an email that the university wasn't involved in conversations with Wharton or the city "about a data center in Hamilton." "We remain committed to working with the City of Hamilton to support the development of the Hamilton Innovation District and igniting economic growth in the region," Lipton said. What's next for the site? The data center would have been built on approximately 29 acres off 1380 University Boulevard. The land is owned by the city. Swain said the number of employees would have depended on the ultimate end user. In September 2024, developers estimated the two-story data center would have employed between 10 and 50 people, according to city plan commission documents. Logistix later estimated it could employ over 100, according to the Cincinnati Business Courier. The 2024 agreement said the data center would "enhance the economic development of the City, further the health, safety and welfare of its residents, create jobs and enhance tax revenues for the City." Greenham said there are no active projects on the city-owned site but that its zoning would permit other commercial and industrial buildings. "The city actively seeks to attract businesses that contribute to local employment growth strengthen the municipal tax base, or support community-owned utilities," she said in the email. Swain said he still thinks the site could support a smaller data center. He said he's told the city he's interested in moving forward with a different data center if the city allows it.

Appalachian Ohio and its people don't exist to be exploited by politicians and industry. Stop. - Ohio Capital Journal - Randi Pokladnik - More and more people are expressing their discontent with hyperscale data centers. A recent Gallup poll showed 70% are against hosting a large data center in their community. Concerns include: utility costs, water usage, environmental and health effects, and the use of these centers for AI surveillance.  The data centers of the early 2000s functioned like an interactive library/storage facility and were about 0.2 MW in size. Today’s hyperscale data centers cover 500+ acres of land, use more than 100MW of energy, and require billions of gallons of water each year. A proposed data center in Pike County (the PORTS Technology Campus) will cover 3,700 acres and will be the largest in the world at 8 GW: equivalent to the power used by all homes in Ohio.  Some politicians like Govs. Greg Abbott (Texas) and Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania) have pulled back on their support for data centers, while Ohio Republican U.S. Sen. Bernie Moreno warns there is backlash against data centers. However, Trump and many of Ohio’s politicians, including the current Republican governor candidate Vivek Ramaswamy and state Reps. Kevin Ritter and Justin Pizzulli, have favored building data centers across our communities. In order to avoid pushback from farmers in Ohio who object to using prime farmland for massive data centers, some politicians like Reps. Ritter and Pizzulli are suggesting that brownfields (areas with significant contamination issues) be used for data centers. Brownfields can be abandoned mines and shuttered industrial sites, and many are located in the Appalachian regions of the state. Rural communities near brownfields have been exploited in the past; why allow data centers to once again extract their water and energy and use their land?  Additionally, brownfield sites like the retired R.E. Burger coal-fired power plant in Belmont County must secure funding for clean-up efforts. JobsOhio spent 70 million to clean up the R.E. Burger site and demolish the plant to pave the way for a plastics-making ethane cracker. The cracker was never built. For decades the Ohio Valley has experienced pollution and health effects from industries, power plants, and steel mills that occupy both sides of the Ohio River.  Until the fracking boom, coal was the energy source for those industries. Coal combustion emissions include: carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, particulate matter, and toxic heavy metals like mercury. In 1976, I worked as a college intern on the prominent Harvard School of Public Health Six Cities Study. The study focused on pollutant particles less than 2.5 microns in diameter because these travel deep into the lungs. Steubenville, Ohio was chosen as a city for the study because of the high levels of air pollution. One of the main conclusions of the study was that “Exposure to air pollution contributes to excess mortality.”  The results were so substantial that they led to a revision of air quality standards by the EPA. The combustion of methane (fracked gas) also releases many air pollutants, and is the energy choice of most data centers in Ohio.The emissions from a gas turbine include: 2.5 micron particulate matter, carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and formaldehyde.A recent study, “Air Quality, Health, and Economic Impacts of the Proposed MZX Tech Facility,” discovered that emissions from the proposed methane gas turbines (1.2-GW MZX Tech) for xAI’s Colossus 2 data center would result in increased risks of heart disease, stroke, respiratory illness, asthma exacerbation, and premature death for local citizens. Several environmental groups, including Earthjustice, filed a lawsuit against the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for fast-tracking the approval of two data center chemicals classified as PFAS compounds.PFAS chemicals are toxic “forever compounds” that do not break down in nature.The EPA acknowledged that “both chemicals pose potentially severe risks to public health”, but the EPA “does not know the level at which the chemicals are acutely lethal or cause other serious health damage.”The EPA granted approval for immediate use anyway.Additionally, PFAS compounds are used in immersion cooling systems for data centers, and while this cooling technique does reduce water usage, it significantly increases exposures to; toxic hydrofluoric gas, endocrine disrupting compounds, and reproductive toxins. These chemicals not only affect workers who are involved in manufacturing the components, but also the data center workers and local communities living near data centers. Reps. Ritter and Pizzulli failed to mention anything about the health and safety issues associated with data centers. The huge PORTS data center will be located at the site of the radioactively contaminated Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant. This facility enriched uranium in Pike County from 1954 to 2001. Will the PORTS data center bring more illness to a region already suffering from legacy pollutants?  Data centers will not make our communities a “benefit zone,” but rather a sacrificial zone, and communities will not be “measurably better off.”Data centers also pose potential risks in the form of fires and exposures to toxic compounds.  Local firefighters and emergency personnel, many of whom are volunteers, are often excluded in the preparation of Emergency Response Plans for these mega facilities. “Contributing causes of such fires include electrical faults, battery failures, cooling system malfunctions, and human error.”Recently, Moreno touted the Trump Administration’s $45 million dollar grant directed at breathing life into the coal-fired Cardinal plant which sits along the Ohio River; close to where I grew up.Once again, propping up a dirty fossil fuel project to increase power availability is disingenuous given Ohio’s politicians killed 5.3 GW of wind and solar projects in the past dozen years.Additionally, Moreno’s claim that data centers do not drive-up utility costs for consumers has been proven false by peer-reviewed studies. Trump’s Executive Order 14318 was a gift to data center CEOs; allowing “qualifying projects” to by-pass the National Environmental Policy Act, modify the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulations and environmental protection statutes, and find ways to work around the Endangered Species Act. Finally, the elephant in the room is the ridiculous amounts of carbon dioxide generated from using fracked gas for data centers’ electrical production.Whether centers tie into the PJM grid, which is heavily invested in fossil fuels, or use behind-the-meter methane fuel cells or gas-turbines, they will be using an energy source that has multiple health and environmental issues associated with it.The PORTS center could emit 53.4 million tons of greenhouse gases annually at full capacity.Appalachian communities are tired of false promises of jobs and money from outsiders and corporate PR representatives.President Trump might think we are “backwards and poor” but we realize data centers are just another extractive industry that will pollute our land, water and air, take our resources, and leave us with the health effects.

Shale Insight: Meta Says Behind-the-Meter Gas Is the Model That Works -- Marcellus Drilling News - Meta’s energy chief closed Shale Insight 2026 by explaining how gas-fired power built “behind the meter” helped the company bring its first gigawatt-scale AI cluster online in Ohio. She had a message for the gas patch: if you have a site with plenty of power and a community that wants a data center, call her. But not everyone on stage was so sure about how fast data center demand will grow. An energy analyst and Expand Energy’s CFO both warned that forecasts may be running ahead of reality.

Two TV Takes on Data Centers: Texas Anger, Ohio Common Sense -- Marcellus Drilling News - Sunday (two weeks ago) was a two-for-one day on television for anyone following the data center fight. CBS’s 60 Minutes ran a 13-minute segment from Texas showing just how furious rural Americans have become about the AI buildout landing in their backyards. Hours earlier on Fox & Friends Weekend, Ohio gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy laid out a plan that, frankly, answers nearly every complaint 60 Minutes aired. Watch them back-to-back (both are embedded below), and you get the problem and the solution in about 25 minutes.

PJM to Data Centers: Stop Bailing on the Grid Every Time It Blips -- Marcellus Drilling News -   Remember that July morning when 4,000 megawatts (MW) of Northern Virginia data centers yanked themselves off the PJM grid because of a routine, properly cleared fault on a single transmission line (see PJM: Data Centers Panicked, Nearly Crashed the Grid on Purpose)? PJM hasn’t forgotten either. On Sept. 8, PJM’s Planning Committee got its first look at proposed “ride-through” standards that would require big data centers and crypto mines to stay connected and keep drawing power when the grid wobbles — instead of hitting the eject button and running for their diesel generators. And PJM isn’t easing into it: new facilities entering the study process would have to demonstrate compliance starting Nov. 1, 2026 — about five weeks from now.

Md. Gov. Moore Skips Data Center Moratorium, Adds Task Force Instead -- Marcellus Drilling News -- Maryland Gov. Wes Moore took the podium in Annapolis last week and did something that disappointed just about everybody: he did NOT slap a moratorium on new data centers. Instead, he signed an executive order (EO) that creates a new state task force to grade data center projects, a public “dashboard” to track them, and a ban on secret deals between state agencies and developers. He also wants lawmakers to kill a 2020 sales tax break for data centers. The antis at Food & Water Watch (FWW) are grumbling that it’s not enough. What they REALLY want to kill is the gas-fired power plants that would keep the lights on.

In Case You Missed It: A.I./Data Center Articles - NewClips From Last Week - October 5 – Energy Costs:

• -- WTAE: Heating Oil Costs Projected To Jump Nearly $900 This Winter
• -- ABC6/Philadelphia: Heating Costs Expect To Rise Sharply This Winter, With Home Heating Oil Seeing Biggest Increase
• -- PUC Approves UGI Gas Rate Increase Of 5.7%; Increase In Monthly Residential Customer Care From $16.25 to $20; Add A Weather Normalization Surcharge Pilot Program  [PaEN]
• -- Morning Call: Settlement Reduces UGI Gas Rate Increase, Spreads Out Impact To Customer Bills
• -- AP: US Households Will Pay More For Energy Because Of President’s Policy Changes, Nonpartisan Think Tank Says [What President’s Policies Cost Pennsylvanians ]

Legislation

• -- PA Capital-Star: PA House Committee Passes Proposals On A.I. Data Center Costs, Utility Company Profits Intended To Keep Electricity Bills Lower
• -- The Center Square: PA House Committee Backs Bill To Spare Communities From ‘Fake’ Data Center Proposals
• -- Tribune-Democrat: PA House Acts On A.I. In Health Care, Urges Feds To Let States Regulate A.I.
• -- Tribune-Democrat: PA Lawmakers Advance Ban On Data Center Nondisclosure Agreements [Senate], Prohibit Public Utility Status [House]
• -- The Center Square: PA Senate Committee Backs Ban On Governments Signing Data Center Nondisclosure Agreements
• -- PA Capital-Star: PA Senate Republican Leader Makes No Commitment On Moving Data Center Legislation, Weighs In On Midterm Elections, Reforming Unconstitutional Felony Murder Convictions, Skill Grams, Gift Ban
• -- Utility Dive: US Senate Permitting Bill Gives FERC Authority To Issue Permits For Electric Transmission Projects; Reduces Authority Of States For Section 401 Water Quality Permitting For Gas Pipelines
• -- TribLive/AP: Data Center Bill Falls Short In US Senate As Lawmakers Take Final Votes Before Midterm Elections
• Grid
• -- PUC To Seek Comments On Regulations To Give Electric Utilities New Tools To Manage Data Centers During Periods Of Strained Electricity Supplies And Curtailments To Maintain Grid Reliability  [PaEN]
• -- Sen. Yaw Urges PJM To Start Approving Connections For New Electric Generation Quickly  To Make Sure There Is Enough Power For A.I. Data Centers Driving Demand
• -- PennLive Guest Essay: Pennsylvania Has The Energy And The Workers - Now It Needs The Electric Grid - By Terrance J. Fitzpatrick, Former Chair Of The PA Public Utility Commission

Generation

• -- PUC Holds Oct. 7 Meeting To Hear Presentation On Recommendations For Grid Modernization To Develop New Electric Generation At 21 Deactivated Energy Sites To Support Large Loads  [PaEN]
• -- Scranton Times: PPL Joint Venture Invitium Energy Could Acquire More Than A Quarter Of Fell Twp. For Natural Gas Data Center Power Plants In Lackawanna County
• -- TheDerrick.com: DEP Issues Violations To KEEL Infrastructure For Failing To Remove Coal Ash Pile At Scrubgrass Coal Waste-Fired Data Center Power Plant In Venango County
• -- TribLive: West Deer Township Residents Grapple With KEEL Infrastructure Digital Mining Scrubgrass Coal Waste-Fired Power Plant Pollution And Erratic Coal Trucks In Allegheny County
• -- Utility Dive: PJM Delays Backstop Power Supply Auction After FERC Decides To Approve Only Part Of PJM’s Plan Tuesday; FERC Chair Slams PJM ‘Mess’
• Land Use
• -- Scranton Times: Archbald Boro To Hear More Information On 7 Data Centers, Natural Gas Power Plant In Lackawanna County
• -- Scranton Times: Essential Energy, Stop Archbald A.I. Data Centers Continue Debate Over Proposed Natural Gas Data Center Power Plants
• -- Wilkes-Barre Times-Leader: Standing Room Only Crowd Gathered Sunday To Discuss 15 Proposed Data Centers, 3 Natural Gas Power Plants Issued Zoning Approvals In Newport Twp., Luzerne County
• -- Standard Speaker: Newport Twp. Residents Hold Meeting On 15 Proposed A.I. Data Centers, 3 Natural Gas Power Plants In Luzerne County
• -- Wall Street Journal: Every Household In Hazle Twp., Luzerne County Receives $10,000 If An A.I. Data Center Gets Built; Residents Pushing Back Despite Lure Of Cash
• -- The Citizens’ Voice: Sugarloaf Twp. Supervisors Table Resolution To Write New Rules For A.I. Data Centers After Residents Ask If It Would Hurt Their Active Legal Case Involving A Challenge By A Data Center Developer
• -- The Citizens’ Voice: Bear Creek Twp. May Restrict A.I. Data Centers To Current Industrial Zone In Luzerne County
• -- TheDerrick.com: Data Center Developer KEEL Infrastructure VP Tries To Quell Concerns About Data Center Plans In Venango County
• -- Williamsport Sun: Appeal Filed In Commonwealth Court Against ‘Deemed Approval’ Of Data Center Proposal In Muncy Township, Lycoming County
• -- Altoona Mirror: Taylor Township Plans Oct. 8 Hearing On Proposed A.I. Data Center In Blair County
• -- Altoona Mirror: Antis Township Plans A.I. Data Center Ordinance In Blair County
• -- WITF: Central PA Residents At Cumberland County Forum Raise Concerns About Growing A.I. Data Center Development
• -- PennLive - Charles Thompson: Data Center Foes In Middlesex Twp. Ask Court To Halt Site Work While Appeal Plays Out In Cumberland County
• -- LancasterOnline: More Lancaster County Municipalities Adding Rules Regulating Data Centers
• -- Republican Herald: Kline Twp. Planning Commission In Schuylkill County Approves Amazon Data Center Plans With Conditions Over Public Objections; Twp. Supervisors To Vote On Plans Wednesday [Sept. 30]
• -- WNEP: Kline Township Supervisors Vote To Approve Amazon Data Center Project In Schuylkill County; Residents Want More Restrictions
• -- Morning Call Guest Essay:  Open Space Preservation Will Stop A.I. Data Centers In Lehigh County And So Much More - By Lamont McClure, Former Northampton County Executive
• -- Post-Gazette: Forward Twp., Butler County Residents To Developers: No A.I. Data Centers
• -- TribLive: Springdale Boro Oversteps In Restricting Media, Public During Meetings, Legal Experts Say In Allegheny County
• -- Observer-Reporter: Developers Of Starpointe A.I. Data Center/Power Plant Proposal In Hanover Twp. May Need To Further Investigate Abandoned Conventional Oil & Gas Wells On The Site In Washington County
• -- PennLive/LehighValleyLive: Amazon Behind 3,200 Homer Center A.I. Data Center/Power Plant Complex In Indiana County
• -- The Allegheny Front: In Upper Burrell Twp., Westmoreland County Where Fracking And A.I. Data Center Industries Converge Residents Look To Regulation Data Centers, Mad The Township Doesn’t Regulate Shale Gas Facilities
• -- TribLive: A.I. Data Center Critics Want Upper Burrell Township To Also Regulate Natural Gas Data Center Power Plants In Westmoreland County
• -- Tribune-Democrat: Somerset County Unveils Proposed A.I. Data Center Ordinance: Public Hearing Tuesday [Sept. 29]
• -- Tribune-Democrat: Somerset County Resident Pack Hearing To Urge Officials To Strengthen Proposed A.I. Data Center Regulations
• -- Pittsburgh Media Partnership: Pennsylvania A.I. Data Center Proposals Map
• Court Actions
• -- PennLive - John Beauge: A.I. Data Center Project In Muncy Twp., Lycoming County Focus Of Court Challenge To PA’s ‘Deemed Approval’ Planning Code Provision
• Permits/Approvals
• -- SightLine: NRC Clears Environmental Review For Three Mile Island Data Center Nuclear Power Plant Restart

Impacts

• -- PennLive Guest Essay: A.I. Data Centers Are Rebuilding Careers In Northeastern Pennsylvania - By Jillian Henderson, IBEW Union Local 163
• -- Scranton Times Guest Essay: Northeast PA Must Seize The Opportunity Of A Digital Future - By John Yudichak, Luzerne County Community College President, Former State Senator
• -- Utility Dive (Deep Dive): A.I. Data Center Boom Continues, But Projects Face Mounting Obstacles: Equipment, Labor Shortages; Utility Infrastructure; Cost/Reliability Of Power & Natural Gas Supplies And Mounting Public Opposition
• -- Utility Dive (Deep Dive): Efforts To Curb A.I. Data Center Speculation Gain Ground Across The US
• Public Participation/Meetings
• -- 27+ Citizen, Environmental Groups To Hold No Data Center Rally Oct. 6 Main Capitol Rotunda In Harrisburg [PaEN]
• -- DEP Invites Comments On Air Permit For Operating Natural Gas Boilers, Backup Generators At TECfusions Keystone LLC New Kensington Data Center In Westmoreland County; Stormwater Permit Issued [PaEN]
• -- PA Data Center Hearings & Meetings - Physicians For Social Responsibility PA
• Politics
• -- Inquirer: ‘Data Senator’ Ad Prompts Republican State Sen. Frank Farry To Send A Cease-And-Desist Letter To His Democratic Challenger In Bucks County
• -- Pittsburgh Business Times: Data Center Developers, Unions Form National Alliance - Target Pennsylvania, 6 Other States As Data Center Battle Heats Up
• A.I. Policy
• -- AP: President Said He Will Never ‘Stifle’ Growth Of A.I.; Promotes Voluntary Self-Policing Of A.I. Development
• -- Financial Times: Anthropic Warns Of ‘Existential Risks To Humanity’ In IPO Prospectus
• -- The Guardian: White House ‘Superintelligence’ Self-Policing Accord Document Includes Spelling Error On President’s Signature Line: ‘President Of The Unites States’

Ohio's fuel tax holiday includes gas and diesel, but no breaks for EV or hybrid owners | The Statehouse News Bureau -- The 90-day suspension of the state’s 38.5 cent tax on gasoline goes into effect Sunday. It’ll save drivers $5.77 on a 15-gallon fill up. While that may not be much to some Ohioans, it’s more than owners of hybrids and electric vehicles (EV) see from that gas tax holiday. The gas tax suspension doesn’t include any discounts for EV drivers, who pay $200 more to register them to pay for their use of roads because they use no gas. It also doesn't include breaks for owners of plug-in hybrids, who pay $150 more for using less gas, or for hybrid owners, who pay $100 extra. Sen. Casey Weinstein (D-Hudson) said a quarter of vehicles sold in Ohio are EVs or hybrids, and those motorists deserve a break too. "This is a significant number of Ohioans on the road who are paying their fair share through a registration fee, who are not getting any relief from the economic consequences of Trump's Iran war, and we owe them economic relief too," Weinstein said in an interview. Weinstein said he wanted the gas tax holiday legislation to include an amendment to provide discounts for those vehicle owners. "I had an amendment ready to go. Unfortunately, the Republican majority used a procedural motion to shut down all debate and all amendments on the bill," Weinstein said. "It really shut out a huge percentage of drivers on our roads who are paying their fair share, who are feeling economic consequences, who need relief, but who we weren't able to help because of that. So it's very frustrating." Other Democrats said they wanted to propose amendments as well, including a resolution urging an end to President Trump's war in Iran. Senate President Rob McColley (R-Napoleon) said of the motion to end debate on the bill: "We came in here saying that we made $725 million cost relief for Ohioans at a time when they need it the most. The Democrats, through some of the theatrics they were trying to pull, were trying to make it about anything other than that, which would be it very well jeopardized what we were trying to do here today. And our caucus thought it was important to get in and get the job done on behalf of Ohioans across the state who desperately need this relief." McColley is the running mate of Republican candidate for governor Vivek Ramaswamy. Last week Ramaswamy announced the plan to bring lawmakers back to the Statehouse from their campaigning break and pass the gas tax holiday. Ramaswamy's plan was unveiled following a call for a gas tax holiday from Democratic candidate for governor Amy Acton. The $726 million to cover the lost gas tax revenue, which goes to road construction and repair, will come from the state's general revenue fund. The initial gas tax holiday proposal from Republican legislative leaders had identified Ohio Department of Transportation funds as the source of replacement revenue, but the Office of Budget and Management said the $1.8 billion balance in ODOT's main operating fund had already been allocated to other projects.

Burned Worker Sues 2 Companies Over Ohio Wayne NF Well Blast - Marcellus Drilling News -   A year and a day after the Farnsworth #4 orphan well blew out and burned six people inside Ohio’s Wayne National Forest, one of the survivors went to court. Chazz Bates — a 20-year-old rig hand at the time — filed suit Aug. 21 in Washington County Common Pleas Court against his own employer, Monroe Drilling Operations LLC, and the cementing subcontractor on the job, Zanesville-based Formation Cementing Inc. The complaint, which also names 10 unidentified “John Doe” defendants, alleges the two companies skipped basic well control before pumping cement into a well nobody had pressure-tested — and that an ODNR inspector had flagged Monroe Drilling’s homemade wellhead as leaking and inadequate two months before the explosion.

Repairs underway at Toledo gas station after gas leak, driver still missing -   - Environmental crews are digging to repair a gas line at a Toledo gas station after a driver rammed a vehicle into the pump earlier this month, triggering a gas leak. The station remains closed during the repair, and the driver has not been found. Crews lowered a camera into a hole to track down the damaged line. They found three lines running underground from the pump. The line closest to the sewer is the one damaged when the car hit the pump.Environmental crews are digging to repair the line that sent gas fumes into neighboring homes. Investigators say someone purposely rammed a vehicle into the pump, which caused the leak.Last week, Toledo Fire temporarily plugged the leak. Fire crews say the driver crashed into the pump and then took off. Toledo police are still looking for the driver. There is a SkyCop camera at Cherry and Central, but police have not said whether it was working.  The Ohio EPA and the city’s Environmental Services Division are overseeing repairs and continue monitoring the air quality. The owner hopes the problem will be fixed this week.

Cause of deadly Rainbow Terrace Apartments explosion remains undetermined - City of Cleveland officials say that they could not determine the cause of an explosion that ripped through Cleveland's Rainbow Terrace Apartments in June 2025. Based on witness statements and surveillance footage, the Cleveland Division of Fire's Fire Investigation Unit believes that there was a rapid accumulation of natural gas in the lower levels of two of the complex’s buildings when an unknown heat source came in contact with the gas. That resulted in an explosion that caused widespread fire, heat and smoke damage June 23, 2025. Cleveland Fire Capt. Bob Zimmerer said during a news conference Monday that a security officer was approached by a juvenile who reported the smell of gas coming from one of the buildings. “He reported to him the odor of gas in the building,” Zimmerer said. “And then the officer himself, when he approached the building, stated he smelled strong, strong odor of the gas as well.” The investigators were unable to determine the cause of the gas leak or how it was ignited. "A light switch could do it, an appliance turning on or off, a refrigerator cycling on," all could have ignited the gas, said Zimmerer. The explosion and fire in Cleveland's Garden Valley neighborhood killed one person and displaced dozens of residents. The city has been under heavy pressure, including from former residents and Councilmember Richard Starr, to release the results of the investigation. Chief Director of Public Safety Dornat Drummond said that the sole responsibility for the investigation and determination if a gas pipeline failed, why it failed and if the operator, Enbridge Gas, complied with pipeline safety laws and regulations, falls on the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio. “In accordance with the established process, Enbridge conducted the inspection with oversight by PUCO,” Drummond said. “PUCO is the final decision-maker regarding gas pipeline failures. Enbridge, of course, the supplier, the pipeline operator, is required by the Federal Code of Regulations to investigate an incident involving its pipeline that resulted in a death, which this did, or a personal injury necessitating inpatient hospitalization.” Enbridge employed S-E-A, Ltd. to perform site inspections, laboratory examinations and testing based on the principles of NFPA 921, which is the National Fire Protection Association’s guide for fire and explosion investigations. S-E-A, Ltd. also did not reach a conclusion regarding the origin and cause of the explosion, though Enbridge concluded that the “apparent cause” of the explosion was ignition of leaking gas from the building-owned two-inch house line gas piping. PUCO’s investigation also did not find any compliance failures that could have caused or contributed to the explosion. PUCO’s report also stated that Enbridge performed an inspection and leak survey of the inside piping and meter manifold just 21 days before the explosion, though they outlined five deficiencies in Enbridge’s post-incident response. Zimmerer said that while the investigation has been titled “undetermined,” it does not mean the investigation is closed. “If new data or new technology comes to surface or arises, then that's always potential for more information,” Zimmerer said. Rainbow Terrace resident Cordale Sheffield, 32, died weeks later as a result of injuries he suffered in the blast. “Although the reports involved may not provide the answers many had hoped for, I hope that their release will provide some finality to this stage of the investigation and allow the community to continue the difficult process of healing,” Drummond said.

RINO Alert: Marietta Council Prez Endorses Democrat Amy Acton -- Marcellus Drilling News -  Susan Vessels, the Republican (we use that term loosely) president of Marietta, OH City Council, has endorsed Democrat Amy Acton for governor of Ohio. Why? Because Acton promised to honor Marietta’s call for a three-year moratorium on new wastewater injection wells. Vessels is so fixated on blocking injection wells that she’s willing to hand the governor’s office — and control of the agency that regulates Ohio’s oil and gas industry — to the woman who, as Ohio’s health director in 2020, signed the order that shut down the state. That’s not a Republican. That’s a RINO (Republican In Name Only).

Utica Shale Academy receives $900K to expand student transportation – WTRF - – More students are receiving rides to and from the Utica Shale Academy thanks to $900,000 in state rural transportation funds allocated in Ohio’s biennial budget through the efforts of several local state lawmakers. Bill Watson, superintendent of the regional trade school, said the funding has made it possible to increase its fleet of eight-passenger vans from seven to 17, all used to transport about 138 students to and from school. He expressed thanks to the local representatives for securing the funds. While based in Columbiana County, the school also serves students from Jefferson, Carroll, Mahoning and Stark counties. Watson said the additional vans have been a boost for multiple reasons. He said while some students got rides through public transportation or buses operated by local school districts, their schedules didn’t always mesh with those who work after school. Watson noted the vehicles also will serve as teaching tools, with students changing the vans’ oil and tires and performing other routine maintenance on them under the supervision of a trained instructor. He also said the additional vehicles are part of an ongoing effort that began a few years ago to ease access for students in the largely rural area served by the school. Watson said it resulted in better attendance and test scores. Additionally, Watson said chronic absenteeism at the school has been reduced by 6.2% while the number of students who haven’t undergone end-of-course proficiency testing has dropped from 14.7% to zero, with 9.3% more students demonstrating proficiency through the testing.

CenterPoint Energy completes $2.62B Ohio gas unit sale -  CenterPoint Energy completed the sale of its Ohio natural gas distribution business to National Fuel Gas Company for $2.62 billion on Tuesday, according to a press release statement. The transaction involved Vectren Energy Delivery of Ohio, which includes approximately 5,900 miles of gas transmission and distribution pipeline serving approximately 335,000 metered customers in West Central Ohio. The sale received all required federal and state approvals, including clearance from the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio. National Fuel Gas, headquartered in Western New York, assumed immediate responsibility for serving the former CenterPoint Ohio natural gas customers. CenterPoint stated the proceeds will support its $66.7 billion, 10-year capital plan focused on investments in electric and natural gas systems across its remaining utility footprint in Indiana, Minnesota and Texas. "We remain focused on executing our long-term strategy and investing in the electric and natural gas systems that serve the customers and communities across our core utility footprint," said Jason Wells, CenterPoint Chair and Chief Executive Officer. As of June 30, 2026, CenterPoint owned approximately $48.3 billion in assets and serves nearly 7 million metered customers across its remaining service territories. The company employs approximately 8,800 people. The divestiture represents CenterPoint’s exit from the Ohio natural gas market as it concentrates operations in its Texas, Indiana and Minnesota service areas.

HydroEdge Solutions Acquires Majority Interest in RES Water  - HydroEdge Solutions has acquired a majority interest in RES Water, creating a combined water management platform serving natural gas producers across the Marcellus and Utica shale regions in Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia. The transaction was completed through WET Tech, HydroEdge’s newly formed parent company, which acquired Reserved Environmental Services and its affiliated operating companies. Financial terms were not disclosed. The combined business will provide water management services across the drilling and production lifecycle, including pipeline and on-pad management, hauling, treatment, recycling and storage. It will employ approximately 350 people and operate five treatment, recycling and storage facilities across Pennsylvania. The platform will have approximately 700,000 barrels of storage capacity and processing capacity of up to 116,000 barrels per day. It will also operate an automated water transfer and trucking network serving the broader Appalachian Basin. “This transaction creates the platform to do the same in energy services, and we will continue to pursue both organic and acquisitive growth across Appalachia,” said Matt Brewer, CEO of the combined company and co-founder of HydroEdge. Management expects the combination to reduce trucking miles, expand water reuse and improve service coverage while creating opportunities for additional infrastructure investments and acquisitions. The transaction was financed through a senior secured credit facility arranged by Atlantic Union Bank Capital Markets. Atlantic Union Bank serves as administrative agent and sole lead arranger, with EagleBank and Dollar Bank participating as lenders. Canonsburg, Pennsylvania-based HydroEdge was founded in 2013 and provides water logistics, automation and trucking services for hydraulic fracturing operations. RES Water, founded in 2008 and based in Bridgeville, Pennsylvania, operates four water treatment, recycling and storage facilities in the state.

16 New Shale Well Permits Reported for PA-OH-WV Sep 21 – 27 -- Marcellus Drilling News - The Marcellus/Utica region received 16 new drilling permits last week, September 21 – 27, down 1 from the 17 permits issued two weeks ago. Pennsylvania issued 6 of the new permits. Ohio also issued 1 new permit. And West Virginia issued 9 new permits. The drillers who received new permits last week were: Antero Resources, Ascent Resources, Beech Resources, Expand Energy, and Range Resources. Antero Resources | Ascent Resources | Beech Resources | Bradford County | Doddridge County | Expand Energy | Harrison County | Lycoming County | Noble County | Range Resources Corp | Washington County | Wetzel County

DEP - Day 700: Seneca Resources Continues To Manage Contaminated Water From Taft Shale Gas Well Pad In Tioga County - On September 23, 2026, the Department of Environmental Protection did a follow-up inspection of the Seneca Resources Taft 851 shale gas well pad in Middlebury Township, Tioga County to determine the status of contaminated water cleanup from a 2024 and continuing incidents.DEP found operations were under way to pump fluids down a Taft shale gas well while a well at the nearby Chappell shale gas well pad was being fracked to reduce communication between the wells. Forty-eight frac tanks were staged in secondary containment for use during the operation.Field tests confirmed contaminated fluid in the sediment basin and at the central stormwater sump continued to be present as a result of operations at the well pad."The DEP recommends that Seneca continues to monitor the conditions on the pad surface and the sediment basin and remove elevated conductance fluids and soils as discovered. Prevent elevated conductance fluids from leaving the facility and causing pollution to the waters of the Commonwealth." Violations at the well pad were continued now for 700 days. DEP did not request a write follow-up from Seneca.  Click Here for DEP inspection report + photos.  Violations for the wastewater releases at the Taft site were originally issued on October 23, 2024.DEP found similar conditions-- spills, crews trying to clean up the pad while drilling and fracking new shale gas wells continues-- starting October 23, 2024, then on  July 11, 2025,  August 21, 2025, October 2, 2025, October 31, 2025, December 23, 2025, January 21, 2026, April 21, 2026, June 23, 2026 and July 17, 2026.   A July 27, 2026 inspection of the 75HU Utica shale gas well at this same Taft shale gas well pad found evidence of continuing casing/cementing failure originally discovered on Nov. 13, 2024. The violation was continued and so will the monitoring. DEP inspection report.  On October 31, 2025, Attorney General Dave Sunday announced criminal charges against Seneca Resources, LLC, following multiple violations of Pennsylvania’s environmental protection laws in several counties, as recommended by the 48th and 51st Statewide Investigating Grand Juries.Three separate criminal complaints were filed regarding the natural gas company’s violations related to improper waste management practices and policies.Prominent in the Attorney General’s announcement of the charges was the fact that DEP repeatedly warned Seneca that their practices were not in line with Pennsylvania law, but those warnings were ignored or disputed. Read more here.In all, Seneca is charged with 64 counts of violations of the Solid Waste Management Act and 36 counts of violations of the Clean Streams Law in Cameron, Clearfield, Elk, Jefferson, Lycoming, McKean, Potter, Tioga Counties. Read more here. To report oil and gas violations or any environmental emergency or complaint, visit DEP’s Environmental Complaint webpage. Text photos and the location of abandoned wells to 717-788-8990.

DEP: Pipeline Excavation Hits Conventional Oil & Gas Well Drill Cuttings Disposal Area At Eastern Gas Transmission Oakford Gas Storage Area In Westmoreland County - On September 24, 2026, the Department of Environmental Protection inspected an Eastern Gas Transmission & Storage Inc. pipeline excavation area near the Oakford Gas Storage Reservoir after notification that a drill cutting disposal pit was uncovered in Salem Township, Westmoreland County. Eastern Gas Transmission was constructing a 20-inch natural gas pipeline between two gas storage facilities when excavation uncovered a conventional oil and gas drilling disposal pit for drill cuttings near a conventional well owned by Eastern Gas Transmission on September 23. Dark gray matter and pieces of liner were found in the excavation area. [Conventional oil and gas well owners are allowed by DEP to dispose of drill cuttings in lined pits at the site of well drilling rather than take them to a waste disposal facility.] Near the top of the excavation area, the DEP also observed water seeping out of the upslope hill side, into the excavation area and a pump at the bottom of the excavation area pumping water into a frac tank for disposal. Contaminated soil and drilling cuttings from the excavation area were being stockpiled on a plastic liner and contaminated material was also being loaded into two roll-off boxes. DEP did field testing and took soil samples from the site as well as water samples from Beaver Run downslope from the excavation. Multiple violations were issued for exposing a drill cuttings disposal area and DEP requested a response by October 13. Click Here for the DEP inspection report + photos.

DEP: Equipment Failure At Catalyst Energy Injection Well Results In Contaminated Water Discharges In Keating Twp., McKean County - On September 28, 2026, the Department of Environmental Protection inspected the Catalyst Energy Inc. LOT 580 580-1 oil and gas wastewater injection well in response to a notification of a spill of contaminated water in Keating Township, McKean County. DEP found the failure of filter equipment caused the release of contaminated water from the filter building where the water was being processed at the site. [There was no secondary containment around the filter building based on photos of the site.] The company said an employee noticed a leak coming through the side of the filter building and when he opened the door “fluid immediately discharged onto the well pad and over the southern edge of the well pad.” Field testing by DEP found “numerous fingers/pockets of elevated specific conductance within an approximate 30' x 100' area beyond the southern edge of the well pad where the discharged fluid that originated from the filter building ran over the edge of the well pad, given the vegetation was pushed down from the flow. “Significant iron staining was also evident in several areas where the specific conductance was elevated.” A second discharge point and area of impact was also discovered at the southeast corner of the well pad about 75 feet from the first discharge. “This point of interest appears to originate from within or underneath the fill used to construct the location, as elevated specific conductance readings were not observed on the surface of the fill above where elevated readings and staining were observed at the natural elevation.” “The impacted area beyond the well pad consists of previously delineated Exceptional Value wetlands and is partially within the floodway of an UNT of Kinzua Creek. At this time, it does not appear that the nearby UNT of Kinzua Creek has been impacted.” Initial estimates by the company reported about 840 gallons of contaminated water were released. Multiple violations issued. DEP requested a response by October 15. Click Here for a copy of the DEP inspection report + photos.

DEP - Day 873: Contaminated Water Still Leaking From Stonehaven Energy Conventional Oil & Gas Well Storage Tank In Clearfield County - On September 29, 2026, the Department of Environmental Protection did a follow-up inspection of the Stonehaven Energy MGT Co., LLC Walls 3 conventional oil and gas well in Bloom Township, Clearfield County and found contaminated water was still leaking from a storage tank. DEP last inspected the site on July 17, 2024 and found the same conditions. The original violations related to the release of contaminated water were issued on May 9, 2024. DEP reported in July 2024 “NOVs mailed to the owner were returned by the USPS “return to sender.”” During the September 29 inspection, DEP found “exposed soil and dead vegetation was observed extending [about] 48 ft. from the brine tank with the widest part being [about] 12 ft. “ DEP field tested the path of the release to confirm it was contaminated and took soil samples. DEP said “no cleanup appears to have been conducted.” “The Department strongly suggests pursuing Act 2 [Land Recycling Program] for site remediation.” DEP continued the 2024 violations for the well, but did not set a deadline for a response.Click Here for the DEP inspection report + photos.  To report oil and gas violations or any environmental emergency or complaint, visit DEP’s Environmental Complaint webpage. Text photos and the location of abandoned wells to 717-788-8990.

DEP Issues 21 More Violations For Abandoning, Not Plugging Conventional Oil & Gas Wells To 17 Companies In 11 Counties; Total Of 46 Abandoned Well Violations In September -  In September, the Department of Environmental Protection issued or continued 21more violations to 17 conventional oil and gas well owners for abandoning and not plugging their wells in 11 counties.These are in addition to--

• -- 16 violations issued to Mifflin Energy Resources LLC for abandoning and not plugging wells in Washington and Greene Townships, Greene County.  Read more here.
• -- 6 violations issued to American Natural Resources LLC for failure to comply with an order to plug abandoned wells in Allegheny County.  Read more here.
• -- 3 violations issued to HR McClure for failure to plug abandoned wells in Greene County. Read more here.
• DEP also did inspections of nearly 300 abandoned conventional oil and gas wells as part of the federally-funded Well Plugging Program during September.
• The additional violations were issued to--
• Allegheny County
• -- Plum Boro: McGuffie Oil Co. Inc. - CG Mallasse 3 - 9.25.26
• -- Oakmont Boro: S&F MGMT LLC - Edgewater Steel 5, Edgewater Steel 6 - 9.28.26
• -- Trafford Boro: D&B Gas Production Inc. - Trafford Center 1 - 9.4.26
• Armstrong County
• -- Madison Twp: MGPR LLC - M. Douthett 1 - 9.2.26
• Butler County
• -- Parker Twp: B&K Partnership - Bruce & Kevin Smith 1 - 9.1.26
• -- Oakland Twp: Brighter Properties LLC - Waltman 1 - 9.28.26
• Cambria County
• -- Munster Twp.: Vessels Coal Gas Inc. - Gergely 1 - 9.3.26
• Erie County
• -- Erie City: Kingsley United Methodist Church - Kingsley UM Church 1 - 9.21.26
• -- Erie City: St. Lukes Catholic Church - St. Luke Ch 1 - 9.30.26
• -- Harborcreek Twp: Erma L. Berry - Berry 1 - 9.18.26
• -- Harborcreek Twp.: Gannon University - Gannon Farm 1 - 9.18.26
• Fayette County
• -- Perry Twp.: James E. Brumage - John E. Matway 1, John E & Anna Matway 4 - 9.24.26
• Greene County
• -- Wayne Twp.: HR McClure - JB Coen 14 - 9.2.26
• Somerset County
• -- Stonycreek Twp.: Alloy Energy LLC - Thomas Benson 1 - 9.29.26
• Venango County
• -- Cranberry Twp.: Stonehaven Energy MGMT Co. LLC - BW Bredin 659 - 9.21.26
• -- Irwin Twp.: S.C. Hoffman - Rober E & Merle Gilmore 2 - 9.22.26
• Washington County
• -- Hanover Twp: Prosperity Oil Co. Inc. - G. Tennan 2, G. Tennan 7 - 9.17.26
• Westmoreland County
• -- Unity Twp: Michael Harju - James N. Johns 1 - 9.25.26

Details on each of the wells are available through DEP’s Inspection Reports Viewer webpage using the company name and date of inspection.

Alpha Compute Update on Operating Oil and Gas Assets Due Diligence in Pennsylvania, Securing 300+ Acres Across the Marcellus and Utica Shales - -- Alpha Compute Corp., a vertically integrated technology pioneer in Sovereign Intelligence, Confidential Compute and GPU-as-a-service, today announced an update on the Alpha Energy 02 transaction, first announced on September 22, 2026 with a total purchase price is USD $5.5 million. Last week, Alpha Compute’s oil, gas, and minerals leadership visited the property to review additional due diligence documents, met with the sellers/managers, and toured the pad sites. Information on the operations, financials, on-site verification of well resources, and equipment inventory were obtained and completed. Evaluation of log files from one natural gas test well into the Marcellus shale indicates substantial recoverable gas resources across multiple formations linked to the acquired land and mineral rights. Supplemented by potential unconstrained production-type curves from adjacent analog wells of two producing shallow gas wells, these reserves correspond to an estimated 200 MW of power generation capacity dedicated to Alpha Compute data center planned for Q1 2028. Beyond providing on-site, behind-the-meter power for planned data center developments, the transaction encompasses over 75 active oil wells with an estimated 2.9 million barrels of remaining oil-in-place. The acquisition delivers a stacked-resource position on more than 300 acres of surface, mineral and gas rights spanning both the Marcellus and Utica shale formations. The assets include:

• One natural gas test-well with proven natural gas reserves;
• More than 75 existing, producing oil and shallow gas wells with complete pump jack inventories;
• Operational maintenance facilities, heavy equipment and associated gathering infrastructure; and
• Full surface control, enabling co-location of power generation and compute on the same parcel.

Historical documentation and test-well logs obtained in due diligence from an assessment estimates approximately 10,000 barrels per acre of light Pennsylvania-grade sweet crude oil across the subsurface parcels, implying roughly 3.0 million barrels of original oil in place across the acquired acreage. Preliminary evaluations indicate that only an estimated 4% of that volume has been extracted to date, leaving approximately 2.9 million barrels of oil in place. For context, at prevailing West Texas Intermediate prices of roughly $90 per barrel in late September 2026, the remaining in-place volume carries an illustrative gross, undiscounted value on the order of $260 million. Based on standard primary-recovery rates of 5% to 15% for shallow Appalachian crude, estimated recoverable reserves range from 145,000 to 435,000 barrels. At current market rates, this projects to roughly $13 million to $39.1 million in gross top-line revenue, prior to royalties, taxes, and operational expenses. Backed by more than One decades of documented financial history, the current wells remain active and cash-flow positive today. A planned workover capital expenditure of approximately $3.5 million is projected to restore field output to these higher historical rates. One test-well is the near-term catalyst. Horizontal wells completed in the Pennsylvania Marcellus and Utica typically recover on the order of 10 to 20 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of natural gas each over their producing lives, implying combined estimated ultimate recovery of approximately 20 to 40 Bcf for the One wells, depending on lateral length, completion design and reservoir quality. Bringing both wells online is expected to cost approximately $10 million to $12 million per well. At an illustrative realized price of $2.00 to $2.50 per MMBtu, reflecting Henry Hub pricing of roughly $3.00 less Appalachian basis differentials, the One wells alone represent approximately $40 million to $100 million of gross lifetime gas revenue if sold to market. Across the full 300-acre block, the stacked Marcellus and Utica formations are estimated to hold roughly 50 to 70 Bcf of recoverable gas, supporting additional drilling locations beyond the One existing wells. Alpha Compute does not intend to simply sell this gas. Consumed on site through simple-cycle generation at approximately 7.5 MMBtu per megawatt-hour, initial combined production of 20 to 40 million cubic feet per day from the One wells could support roughly 100 to 200 MW of generation capacity at first production, with the combined 20 to 40 Bcf of recoverable gas sufficient to sustain approximately 30 to 60 MW of continuous load for a decade. This converts a commodity exposed to Appalachian basis discounts into low-cost, dispatchable power for AI compute. "We paid $5.5 million for an operating business that produces oil and cash flow today, and that sits on roughly 2.9 million barrels of oil in place and one gas well ready to complete," said Enzo Villani, Executive Chairman and President of Alpha Compute Corp. "Our updated geological work, modern appraisals and third-party reserve engineering are underway, and we expect them to support a substantial revaluation of these assets on our balance sheet. In the meantime, the site pays for itself." "This acquisition gives Alpha Compute something few AI infrastructure companies have: the fuel, the land and the compute on a single asset," said Brittany Kaiser, CEO of Alpha Compute Corp. "With one well already drilled. Completing them is the fastest path in Pennsylvania to behind-the-meter power for our next data center, and we will do it under Pennsylvania DEP oversight, in partnership with the county and with the local community at the forefront of our plans."

Precision Drilling Settles 15-Year PPE Overtime Suit for $1.9M - Marcellus Drilling News - How long does it take a rig hand to pull on coveralls, lace up steel-toed boots, and grab a hard hat? According to Precision Drilling’s own expert, about 2.6 to 4.1 minutes per shift. According to the workers’ lawyers, a lot longer. After 15 years, two trips to the Third Circuit and one to the U.S. Supreme Court, the two sides have split the difference, and it will cost Precision $1.9 million. On Monday (Sept. 22), both sides filed a joint brief in Williamsport federal court asking Judge Matthew Brann to approve the deal. It covers 1,006 hourly rig workers, some of whom worked Precision rigs right here in the Marcellus. The dollars are small. The legal rule the case left behind for Pennsylvania is not.

EQT Loses Bid to Toss WV Kids Health Lawsuit; 4 of 5 Claims Survive -- Marcellus Drilling News - -A federal judge in Pittsburgh has ruled that two EQT subsidiaries must face most of a lawsuit filed on behalf of four West Virginia kids who claim that emissions from EQT’s shale wells and a nearby compressor station made them sick. On Sept. 23, U.S. District Judge Robert Colville threw out just one of the five claims, a request for a medical monitoring trust fund, and he gave the kids’ lawyers 21 days to fix and refile it. The rest of the case moves forward. That includes a “strict liability” claim that EQT had argued West Virginia law flat-out does not allow against oil and gas operations. It’s a pleading-stage ruling, not a verdict. Even so, it’s a loss for EQT, and it’s one the whole industry should watch. Read More

Chatham County, NC Commissioners Vote to Fight Enbridge Pipe - Marcellus Drilling News - - Chatham County, North Carolina’s Board of Commissioners last week unanimously passed a resolution opposing Enbridge Gas North Carolina’s proposed 28-mile natural gas pipeline from Siler City to Moncure. This isn’t a garden-variety “we don’t like it” resolution. It authorizes the county to actively fight the project by challenging environmental permits, teaming up with like-minded groups, working the media, organizing residents, and coaching landowners on how to resist condemnation. In other words, a county government just signed itself up as a Big Green activist group, with taxpayers picking up the tab.

NJ Hits Vineland Data Center with $1.07M Fine Over 62 Gas Generators -- Marcellus Drilling News –-New Jersey regulators have fined the company building a giant AI data center in Vineland (Cumberland County, South Jersey) $1.07 million for installing and running 62 large natural gas-fired generators without air permits. The NJ Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) calls it “by far the largest” enforcement action ever taken against a data center in the Garden State, and “possibly one of the largest such actions in the nation.” Our math: those 62 engines add up to nearly 123 megawatts (MW) of gas-fired power, running behind the meter at a site that is supposed to become a 300 MW data center serving Nebius and, through Nebius, Microsoft. The developer, DataOne, says the engines are temporary until Bloom Energy fuel cells (which also run on natural gas) take over, and it will now apply for permits.

Shale Insight: Lack of Pipes Leaves Appalachia Out of LNG Boom -- Marcellus Drilling News - Expand Energy, the country’s largest natural gas producer, opened Shale Insight 2026 with a price forecast and a warning. Marcel Teunissen, Expand’s Chief Financial Officer, predicted gas prices of $3.50 to $4.00 through 2030 and $4.00 to $4.50 from 2030 to 2035, with plenty of volatility along the way. The warning was that most of the new gas needed to meet Gulf Coast LNG demand won’t come from Appalachia, because there aren’t enough pipelines to get it there. The Haynesville will fill the gap instead.

Marcellus Gas Fetches $1.59 While Florida Pays $3.96: Blame Pipes -- Marcellus Drilling News - Here’s a number that should make every Marcellus/Utica landowner and driller wince: $1.590. That’s what gas at the Tennessee Zone 4 Marcellus hub is fetching for October delivery, according to NGI’s Forward Look. Meanwhile, down in Florida, the very same molecule (quite possibly gas that started life in a Pennsylvania or West Virginia well) is priced at $3.960 for October. That’s a $2.37 gap, which means Florida buyers are paying 2.49 times what our local hubs get. The culprit? Not enough pipe heading south. And this week, one of the few big southbound pipes we do have, Mountaineer XPress, sprang a leak.

U.S. LNG Feedgas Holds Steady Despite Cove Point Offline  -U.S. LNG feedgas demand was essentially flat last week as stronger intake across most terminals offset the maintenance outage at Cove Point. Total U.S. LNG feedgas demand averaged 18.3 Bcf/d for the week ending September 28 (blue-dotted line below), virtually unchanged week-on-week. Intake rebounded at Cameron, coupled with smaller increases at other terminals, offsetting the loss from Cove Point, according to our LNG Voyager Weekly Report. Cove Point shut down for annual maintenance on September 19. The terminal is currently not taking feedgas and the outage is expected to last around three weeks. Intake at Cameron LNG rebounded to full contracted utilization after being reduced the week prior because of pipeline maintenance on Columbia Gulf Transmission.  Intake strengthened at most of the U.S. terminals, and all (except Cove Point) are operating at or above full utilization, with Calcasieu Pass and Plaquemines especially strong and operating at peak levels. Intake at the commissioning Golden Pass also strengthened last week, with feedgas above 0.5 Bcf/d for part of the week and averaging 0.4 Bcf/d last week.

Propane/Propylene Stocks Decline as Exports Continue to Grow | RBN Energy  EIA reported a total U.S. propane/propylene inventory draw of 1.2 MMbbl for the week ended September 18, with essentially all of that total coming out of PADD 3 and driven by rising reported exports. Total stocks fell to 107.9 MMbbl but remained 8 MMbbl, or 8%, above the same week in 2025 and 6.4 MMbbl, or 6%, above the five-year maximum. Inventories were also 17.5 MMbbl, or 19%, above the five-year average. PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) propane inventories fell by 1,192 Mbbl to 68,434 Mbbl. Inventories were 8.5 MMbbl, or 14%, above both the same week in 2025 and the previous five-year maximum. Stocks were 17.7 MMbbl, or 35%, above the five-year average. Weekly propane exports reported by the EIA averaged 2,469 Mb/d, up 256 Mb/d from the prior reporting week and 270 Mb/d above the four-week average of 2.2 MMb/d

ConocoPhillips Adds Venture Global Deal to Expanding LNG Portfolio - ConocoPhillips is deepening its bet on US Gulf Coast LNG, signing a long-term supply deal with Venture Global that extends a recent run of 20-year-plus contracts for US export capacity. At a Glance:

• Buyers lock in long-duration US supply
• Venture Global adds 1 Mt/y buyer
• ConocoPhillips expands long-term LNG portfolio

Petrobras Signs Long-Term Deal to Lift Cargoes from Cheniere Terminals - Cheniere Energy said Tuesday it signed its first long-term agreement with Brazil’s state-owned Petrobras LNG to sell the company the super-chilled fuel for more than 20 years. At a Glance

• Petrobras will purchase 0.8 Mt/y
• Term covers 22 years
• SPA underpins Cheniere expansions

U.S. Propane Inventories Climb as Exports Sink | RBN Energy -  The EIA reported a 1.8-MMbbl build in total U.S. propane/propylene inventories for the week ended September 25, lifting stocks to 109.6 MMbbl (red line in the chart below). The build exceeded both the industry-expected increase of 470 Mbbl and the average build of 1.6 MMbbl for the week. Stocks are 6.3 MMbbl, or 6%, above both the same week in 2025 (blue line) and the five-year maximum, and 17.7 MMbbl, or 19%, above the five-year average (green line). The build was concentrated on the Gulf Coast, where PADD 3 inventories increased by 2 MMbbl to a record 70.4 MMbbl. The increase more than accounted for the nationwide build, as Midwest inventories declined and gains in the other regions were relatively small.U.S. propane exports fell sharply this week, decreasing by 800 Mb/d to 1.67 MMb/d (red line in the chart below). Exports were 409 Mb/d, or 20%, below the four-week average of 2.08 MMb/d (green dashed line) and 337 Mb/d, or 17%, below the 2.01 MMb/d reported for the same week in 2025 (blue line). The decline coincided with a larger-than-expected build in U.S. propane inventories, leaving the combination of elevated stocks and lower exports to watch as the market moves into the seasonal draw period.    

Bolstered by One-Two Demand Punch, South Louisiana Spot Prices Lead Lower 48 --Daily natural gas prices in South Louisiana, home to national benchmark Henry Hub, are on average the highest in the country as the market nears the end of September. US natural gas prices for the National Avg., Henry Hub and South Louisiana regional average from May through September 2026.   At a Glance:
South Louisiana prices lead nation
Regional hubs far above average
LNG, heat and storage key factors

NYMEX Gas Jumps 9.75% for Week on WV Pipeline Leak, Storage - Marcellus Drilling News - - The front-month October NYMEX natural gas futures contract settled Friday (Sept. 25) at $3.196 per MMBtu, up 28.4 cents, or 9.75%, for the week. That’s a nice week to be long gas. Most of the fireworks came on Thursday, when a leak on TC Energy’s Mountaineer XPress (MXP) pipeline in West Virginia knocked roughly 1.8 Bcf/d of Appalachian takeaway offline and sent futures up 9.06% in a single day, the biggest one-day gain since January (see WV Pipeline Leak Knocks 1.8 Bcf/d Offline, Gas Futures Jump 9.1%). Traders gave back 10.1 cents on Friday after Columbia Gas Transmission said it had found the leak and expected to fix it over the weekend. Even so, the contract ended the week at its highest Friday close since early July.

Natural Gas Drops As Mountaineer XPress Return Is Expected To Lift Daily Output - Natural gas settled down 2.1% at ₹293.7 as expectations of rising US production weighed on prices following the return to service of the Mountaineer XPress pipeline in West Virginia. The Columbia Gas Transmission unit of TC Energy lifted the force majeure on the pipeline, which had affected around 1.4–1.8 billion cubic feet per day of flows from the Marcellus and Utica shale regions, raising expectations of stronger supplies in the coming days. LSEG reported average US Lower 48 gas production at 112.3 billion cubic feet per day so far in September, matching the record monthly level seen in August, although daily output was expected to fall temporarily to 107.5 bcfd due partly to pipeline maintenance. US gas inventories also remained an important market factor, with the Energy Information Administration reporting a 53 billion cubic feet storage injection for the week ended September 18, matching analyst expectations but below the 77-bcf build recorded during the same week last year and the five-year average increase of 76 bcf. Despite strong summer demand for power generation, inventories have remained supported by record production. The EIA expects US dry gas production to rise from 107.6 bcfd in 2025 to 111.2 bcfd in 2026 and 116.0 bcfd in 2027, while domestic consumption is projected at 92.0 bcfd in 2026 and 94.8 bcfd in 2027. LNG exports are forecast to increase to 17.4 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027. Meanwhile, speculative net shorts declined by 27,105 contracts to 27,158, indicating a substantial reduction in bearish positioning.

US Natgas Prices Fall for 3rd Session -  US natural gas prices slipped more than 1.5% to around $3.05 per MMBtu on Tuesday, marking a third consecutive decline as forecasts pointed to limited heating and cooling demand. The NOAA’s latest outlook calls for mostly near-normal temperatures across the eastern US over the next two weeks, reducing expectations for a significant increase in gas-fired power consumption. In addition, Columbia Gas Transmission lifted force majeure on Sunday after resolving a mechanical problem, allowing production to increase in the coming days. Analysts estimate inventories were 2.4% above normal in the week through September 25, compared with 2.9% previously. Meanwhile, feedgas deliveries to nine major US export facilities averaged 17.9 bcfd in September, up from 17.2 bcfd in August.

Long Time – Economics, LNG Exporters’ Needs to Determine Which Gulf Coast Gas Storage Gets Built -- Just a few years ago, natural gas storage capacity along the Gulf Coast was widely available at low cost, but that has all changed. The operators of existing and planned LNG export terminals have locked up most of the old storage surplus and much of the incremental storage capacity on the drawing boards. But more storage is needed, and the competition among developers to provide that space is heating up. There will be winners and losers. In today’s RBN blog, we begin an in-depth series on Gulf Coast gas storage — why the market flipped from bust to boom, what’s being planned, and how to predict which projects will make it over the finish line.The scale is enormous. More than 350 Bcf of new gas storage capacity — most of it salt cavern storage with high injection and withdrawal rates — is known to be under active development in Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi, and it’s safe to say that at least a couple more projects are still flying under the radar. There are several drivers behind this ongoing, multibillion-dollar buildout, chief among them (1) the proliferation of new and expanded LNG export terminals along the Gulf Coast and (2) terminal operators’ need for a place to quickly store large volumes of gas in the event of a liquefaction plant outage.  This is key: Without nearby storage capacity to serve as an at-the-ready buffer for gas supply, terminals could expose themselves to major financial losses, either by not having the gas they need to operate or, most ominously, by being forced to dump billions of cubic feet of gas into the market during an outage event. In essence, gas storage serves as relatively low-cost insurance. (Note that, as a rule of thumb, an LNG export terminal requiring 800 MMcf/d of feedgas should have 15 to 20 days of storage capacity — that is, 12 to 16 Bcf — under contract.)To a lesser degree, new gas storage capacity is also needed to manage gas flows along the Gulf Coast, which have increased sharply in recent years due to Permian gas production growth and new LNG export, industrial and power demand. Power generators — many of them tied to planned AI data centers — need backup sources of gas supply if regional gas and power demand soars or traditional supplies are interrupted.As you may recall, Gulf Coast gas storage capacity saw a massive overbuild in the late 2000s. There were two major catalysts. First, the Energy Policy Act of 2005 provided that if a storage owner could show a lack of market power, its rates could be “market-based,” attracting more marketers and traders into the storage game. Second, back then almost everyone thought that the U.S. was running out of natural gas and would soon have to rely on huge volumes of LNG imports to keep pace with demand — and that gas storage would be needed to receive and manage those imported volumes.Instead, the Shale Revolution happened, and gas production in the Permian, Haynesville and other U.S. shale plays grew by leaps and bounds. By the 2010s, the Gulf Coast had way more gas storage capacity than it needed and storage rates plummeted. As we all know, several of those LNG import terminals in Texas and Louisiana were repurposed as LNG export facilities, new liquefaction plants were built, and the Gulf Coast quickly ramped up the volumes of LNG it was sending out.The new LNG export capacity was welcome news to gas storage owners, whose previously underutilized facilities were suddenly a hot commodity. LNG terminal operators quickly locked up the storage space they needed and, as you would expect, storage rates started to rise. (More on storage rates to come.)More recently, a second wave of LNG export projects in Texas and Louisiana has been advancing to final investment decision (FID), financing, construction and, in a few cases, operation. LNG terminal operators with liquefaction/export capacity coming online in 2026-28 have already secured almost all of the storage space left from the last boom-and-bust cycle and, once that was spoken for, entered into long-term commitments with developers to underwrite much of the buildout of new gas storage capacity in the region, most of it expansions at existing (i.e., brownfield) storage facilities. Many of those storage projects are now being built.Still more storage capacity will be needed beyond what has already been sanctioned, however, and the developers of LNG export projects coming online in 2029 and beyond are scrambling to line up capacity at storage projects that have not yet reached FID. But storage developers have proposed more storage space than is likely to be needed, so there’s a fierce competition among them to line up commitments from LNG terminal operators, power generators and other potential customers.As shown in Figure 1 above, most of the incremental storage capacity under development is either greenfield salt cavern facilities (blue dome icons) or expansions to existing salt cavern operations (green dome icons) along a roughly 250-mile stretch of the Gulf Coast from the Tres Palacios storage operation in Matagorda County, TX, to the Jefferson Island Storage & Hub (JISH) in Vermilion Parish, LA — an area also dotted with several existing and proposed LNG export terminals (solid and striped pink diamonds, respectively). A handful of depleted gas reservoir facilities (orange triangles) have also been proposed, mostly away from the coast (and coastal salt deposits) in northeast Texas.Salt cavern storage offers several benefits over depleted gas reservoir facilities. Most important by far, salt caverns offer considerably higher gas injection and withdrawal rates — a must-have for LNG export terminals and other customers that may need to “park” large volumes of gas within a short period of time. (That benefit comes in part from the fact that a salt cavern functions as a large underground tank, with gas flowing freely into or out of the cavern via the wellbore. In a depleted reservoir, gas is stored in microscopic pore spaces within sandstone or carbonate rock and doesn’t flow in or out as freely.) Also, salt caverns require considerably less “base” or “cushion” gas — that is, the amount of gas that needs to remain within a storage facility to maintain pressure and physical integrity. Typically, a salt cavern needs only 20% to 30% of cushion gas, compared to 50% or more for a depleted reservoir.As we said earlier, LNG terminal operators, power generators, and utilities have already locked up most of the excess storage capacity that was left over from the decade-long period of overbuilding. The competition to secure the incremental storage capacity that will be needed for the current wave of LNG export development has been heating up, as evidenced by strong responses to storage-project open seasons and higher capacity prices — prices north of 20, 25 and even 30 cents per dekatherm (dth) per month are now common, compared to prices south of 10 c/dth per month a few years ago.The scramble for incremental gas storage space in Texas and Louisiana doesn’t mean that every pre-FID project — or even most — will succeed in lining up the long-term commitments needed to make their economics work. Salt cavern storage development in particular has always been an expensive and time-consuming undertaking, and in recent years the massive demand for compressors, piping and all kinds of other equipment has sent project costs soaring.  That gives an economic edge to existing storage owners/operators and brownfield storage projects, whose costs can be minimized by the extensive use of existing infrastructure such as header systems/gas-pipeline interconnections, compressors, water pipelines and brine ponds. In contrast, greenfield projects, many of them backed by private equity, must start from scratch — and their extra costs may make at least some uncompetitive.Other factors that impact a project’s odds for success in the current environment include its location, size, connectivity to existing and planned gas pipelines — LNG export terminal operators typically want storage that is nearby and directly linked — and injection and withdrawal rates, which are important determinants in how much of a buffer the storage will actually provide.As we’ll discuss in more detail later in this series, gas storage projects that offer all or most of these attributes — among them, an experienced developer with an existing brownfield site, extensive pipeline connectivity, a location near LNG export terminals, and a direct link to those terminals — should have an edge over new players, greenfield sites, and proposals with less-advantaged locations. There’s a wildcard in all this, though: Some long-term storage players with strong pipeline networks, etc., can make even a questionable project work due to their marketing skill. Similarly, a seemingly promising project can fail if the developer lacks the marketing expertise to make a go of it. In the upcoming blogs in this series, we will discuss in more detail the boom-bust-and-boom cycles in the Gulf Coast gas storage market over the past quarter century and their impact on storage rates. (Spoiler alert: Rates for new projects are at all-time highs.) We’ll also look at the types of storage deals different customers (LNG export terminals, power generators/utilities, and gas marketers) enter into. We’ll conclude with blogs on the many storage projects being planned — brownfield salt cavern jobs, greenfield salt cavern projects and depleted reservoirs — and their prospect.

Google Data Center Anchors 550,000 Dth/d NGPL Natural Gas Expansion in Texas - Natural Gas Pipeline Company of America LLC (NGPL) is asking the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to approve a 550,000 Dth/d pipeline expansion in the Texas Panhandle that would ship natural gas to power a planned Google data center.NGI NGPL Midcontinent natural gas price chart showing daily spot prices in 2026 and forward prices through 2036, with seasonal winter peaks near $4.50/MMBtu. At a Glance:
New compression adds 321,200 Dth/d
Existing capacity covers 228,800 Dth/d
Texas permit freeze clouds timeline

Comeback Story? – New Pipelines Boost Permian Natural Gas Economics, But Oil Still Drives Activity | RBN Energy -- The Permian has up to 11 Bcf/d of new natural gas takeaway capacity scheduled to enter service through the end of 2029, with still more coming in the early 2030s. The central question is whether Permian crude oil production will generate enough associated gas to fill that capacity and, if so, how quickly. The short answer is there appears to be enough incremental capacity to provide a near-term runway, but higher gas prices and new egress are not materially changing most producers’ oil-led development strategies. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss how producers may respond to the new gas pipelines planned for the Permian.This is the third blog in our series on the outlook for major U.S. producing basins, starting with the largest: the Permian. In our first blog, we covered the major gas pipeline projects expected to enter service this year and next. Together, the Gulf Coast Express (GCX) expansion, Hugh Brinson Pipeline and Blackcomb Pipeline will add about 5.3 Bcf/d of egress capacity from the Waha area. Our forecast calls for Permian production to grow by 11.2 Bcf/d from 2026-36, with the strongest growth concentrated in 2027-29. That growth could absorb a meaningful portion of the new takeaway over time, particularly as LNG and other Gulf Coast demand expands. Given the scale and timing of the projects, however, some pipelines could initially operate below capacity rather than being fully utilized from the start.Kinder Morgan’s GCX expansion (0.57 Bcf/d; aqua-blue line in Figure 1 below) is already flowing more gas to the Agua Dulce Hub in South Texas. The expansion lifted the pipeline’s total capacity to 2.6 Bcf/d and has helped the Waha Hub recover from negative prices, though it has not fully resolved Permian takeaway constraints. Energy Transfer’s Hugh Brinson Pipeline (medium-blue line) is ramping up flows to Northeast Texas and will eventually have a capacity of 2.2 Bcf/d. The Blackcomb Pipeline (dashed red line) is still in the commissioning process but is expected to enter full commercial service by the end of this year, providing an additional 2.5 Bcf/d of takeaway to Agua Dulce, while the planned 2.4-Bcf/d Traverse Pipeline (dashed light-pink line) will provide onward access from Agua Dulce to the Katy/Houston area in 2027. Part 2 of our series looked at projects farther down the road. The 48-inch-diameter, 3.7-Bcf/d Eiger Express pipeline (dashed dark-green line) is expected to begin service from the Permian to Katy in mid-2028 with 2.5 Bcf/d at first, followed by the remaining 1.2 Bcf/d in mid-2029. Energy Transfer’s Desert Southwest Project (dashed light-green line) is an expansion of its Transwestern Pipeline system expected to enter service in Q4 2029 and raise the Permian’s westbound takeaway capacity to as much as 5.5 Bcf/d, from 3.2 Bcf/d today.A consortium led by WhiteWater Midstream reached a final investment decision (FID) in August on the Solitude Pipeline System, which will have the capacity to take an astonishing 4.5 Bcf/d of gas from the Permian to Katy by the early 2030s. Solitude (dashed dark-pink line) will consist of two 48-inch pipelines, each capable of transporting 2.25 Bcf/d. WhiteWater has been operating the Matterhorn Express pipeline (dark-blue line) since late 2024. Other projects currently under construction include Blackfin (dashed orange line), which would provide a route for Permian gas to reach Jasper County, TX, where it will connect with CP Express (dashed yellow line) to the coast. The Trident Pipeline (dashed light-purple line), in turn, will add another downstream outlet from Katy, moving gas toward the Port Arthur LNG corridor.With takeaway capacity expanding and Waha prices back in positive territory, Permian gas economics are improving. But the first half of the year showed how quickly they can weaken when takeaway is constrained. The question is whether stronger gas realizations will change how Permian producers allocate capital — or simply improve the economics of oil-focused development. Producers in the basin don’t often say much about gas production, but this year has been an exception, given the sharp swings in gas economics and the major changes underway in Permian pipeline capacity.Next, let’s look at how the basin’s top producers are expecting things to play out in the coming years.  ExxonMobil is the Permian’s largest producer with 4.4 Bcf/d of gross operated wellhead gas output, according to Novi Insights, and offers a clear example of the industry’s oil-first mindset. (Note: Novi Insights figures are gross wellhead volumes on an operated, two-stream basis and therefore differ from company-reported net production figures). During ExxonMobil’s Q2 2026 earnings call, management highlighted continued growth in Permian production. Asked whether new gas pipelines coming online could prompt a material increase in gas production from the basin, Chairman and CEO Darren Woods said ExxonMobil does not expect to change its strategy anytime soon. “As we're developing wells, we're looking at the economics. There's a clear incentive to have higher oil production,” Woods said. “As you look at economically maximizing the value of every well, you want more oil and less gas, given the constraints in the gas market. I think that's not going to change.” Additional takeaway capacity, in Woods’s view, would not turn gas into the primary target. Instead, it would remove a constraint on oil development. “If you’ve got the takeaway capacity, it just opens up your ability to produce more oil and the gas then comes with it,” he said. Devon Energy, next in line with around 3.2 Bcf/d of gross operated wellhead gas production, was direct about the commercial risks tied to Permian gas. In its Q2 2026 earnings, management said weak Waha pricing was challenging, but argued the company is relatively well protected by its marketing arrangements. More than 70% of Devon’s production is either covered by financial hedges or backed by firm transport to the Gulf Coast, CFO Shane Young said. The company expects its exposure to improve further as additional egress becomes available later this year and as Blackcomb enters service in H1 2027. Still, Devon does not appear to view new takeaway as a reason to alter its underlying Permian development strategy. Young said the gas-market challenge is “not going away,” while acknowledging that growing LNG exports and power demand could create more pricing volatility farther downstream along the Gulf Coast. Occidental Petroleum Corp. (Oxy) produces about 2.6 Bcf/d of gross operated wellhead gas production in the Permian and was impacted by the basin’s gas economics in Q2 2026. The wide Waha-to-Gulf Coast spread pushed Occidental’s domestic upstream realized gas price to about negative $1.50/Mcf, roughly $2.50/Mcf lower than in Q1 2026, CFO Sunil Mathew said during the company’s earnings call. As new Permian takeaway capacity narrows that spread, Oxy expects its upstream gas realizations to improve. The benefit to domestic upstream earnings should largely offset lower income in its midstream segment, which had benefited from wider regional spreads. In short, better gas egress should make Oxy’s Permian barrels more valuable by improving the price received for associated gas. ConocoPhillips is also a major gas producer in the Permian, with 2.5 Bcf/d gross operated wellhead gas production, but offered little discussion on natural gas in its Q2 2026 earnings call. Management highlighted record Permian production of 920 Mboe/d and focused its operating commentary on oil recovery, well productivity, longer laterals and capital efficiency, without discussing Permian gas volumes or Waha exposure or identifying gas takeaway as a driver.EOG Resources, which has about 2.4 Bcf/d of gross operated wellhead gas production in the Permian,remains more oil-focused, particularly on high-return oil opportunities. “When it comes to our exploration program, we’re probably slightly more biased on the oil side, but honestly, it really comes down to returns for us,” Chairman and CEO Ezra Yacob said. “Ultimately, I think we cheat just a little bit towards being a little more optimistic or a little more exploration-focused on the liquid side of things, just because the margins tend to be quite a bit greater than on the gas side.”Other producers have shown that they can respond quickly to local gas economics, although the larger question is how much they affect basin-wide production. Diamondback Energy describes gas as additive to its value proposition, rather than a core focus. Permian Resources, meanwhile, has shown it will curtail wells with a high gas-to-oil (GOR) ratio; when Waha prices turned sharply negative in Q2 2026, the company cut gas production by about 20%. It returned the curtailed wells to service as prices recovered. Matador Resources also reported shut-in volumes during the quarter, citing both weak Waha prices and third-party plant maintenance.Taken together, we see a Permian gas market improving without yet changing the basin’s oil-first development model. Better gas realizations can improve well-level economics, particularly in higher-GOR areas, and new takeaway should reduce one of the basin’s biggest constraints. But for gas to become a more meaningful driver of capital allocation, producers would need greater confidence that netbacks will remain attractive after gathering, processing and transportation costs. That would require more than pipeline capacity alone. Stronger and more durable gas prices, reliable downstream demand, and sufficient connectivity to Gulf Coast and LNG markets would all help support a more sustained increase in gas-directed development.

Diesel Cracks the Ceiling, Closing above $100/bbl for Two Straight Weeks | RBN Energy  - Sept 23 - Diesel cracks shifted into overdrive the last two weeks, leaving double-digit territory in the rearview mirror. As we discussed in our Crude Billboard for the week ended September 18, the diesel crack skyrocketed to a record high of $113.48/bbl on Wednesday, September 16 before easing to $108.10/bbl on Friday (far right of green line in chart below). Diesel cracks have now settled above $100/bbl every day since September 9, turning what was recently a brief spike into a sustained stretch of extraordinary refining economics. The benchmark 3-2-1 crack (blue line) rose 10% to $74.46/bbl, helped by a rebound in gasoline cracks (orange line). Diesel remained the defining feature of the barrel: its crack finished the week more than $50/bbl above gasoline’s and at more than three times its year-ago level. Fall maintenance would normally pull refinery runs lower in the coming weeks. However, with diesel margins this strong, refiners have a compelling reason to keep units running where they can, limiting the seasonal decline. The question is how long those runs can rise to meet diesel demand before they begin to cool the crack.

Leap of Faith – Potential Plans to Limit U.S. Diesel Exports Come With Plenty of Downside Risk | RBN Energy - It’s been a banner year for U.S. refiners, especially those able to consistently run at high rates and maximize their production of diesel. The U.S. Gulf Coast diesel crack spread surpassed $100/bbl for the first time in August and has remained elevated ever since, driven by a series of disruptions to global refining capacity and refined-product flows significant enough to raise the prospect of a ban on U.S. diesel exports as a way to keep prices in check. In today’s RBN blog, we look at where things stand and how a U.S. export ban could result in a number of unintended short- and long-term consequences.Geopolitical tensions and upset trade flows have been the central theme of this year’s energy markets. Middle Eastern refineries have been affected by damage inflicted during the Iran conflict and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, while Russian refining and exports have been repeatedly set back by Ukrainian drone attacks. Those developments come at a time when global refining capacity is already tight due to a number of permanent shutdowns (many during the COVID years) and limited new capacity coming online (a subject addressed in detail in our recently released Future of Fuels report), leading to sharply higher prices for crude oil and refined products.The diesel market is particularly exposed to those types of disruptions because global supply remains constrained and demand is comparatively (vs. gasoline) resilient, leaving little cushion when disruptions occur. The U.S. has historically been the biggest supplier of diesel to the global market, so it should be no surprise that exports have increased this year, with foreign buyers pulling harder on a system that is already near its limit. U.S. distillate exports (blue line in Figure 1 below)  averaged about 1.4 MMb/d in H1 2026, up from 1.25 MMb/d in 2025 and about 7X the volumes from 20 years ago. Imports have also declined this year, leading to a record level of net exports (orange line).As we said in Basket Case, the record-high crack spread is also being influenced by extremely high Renewable Identification Number (RIN) prices. (A RIN is the regulatory mechanism for tracking the production and blending of renewable fuels and also allows refiners and importers to prove they’ve met their Renewable Volume Obligation, or RVO, mandates.) We also said in that blog that refiners have little capability to simply run harder, as the refining system is essentially full, with the Gulf Coast (PADD 3) reaching all-time record runs of over 9.7 MMb/d earlier this month and utilization rates above 98%. This year’s higher prices — plus the U.S. midterm elections, which are a little more than a month away — have left some government officials looking for ways to decrease the pressure on U.S. consumers and businesses.  So far, Jones Act waivers and the early end to summer gasoline requirements have helped, but only on the margin. The Trump administration is assumed to be considering a number of measures to provide additional relief, such as using the Defense Production Act to increase refinery capacity/efficiency and extending logistics waivers, although they are likely to produce only additional marginal improvements at best. The most dramatic step would be an outright ban (or severe limitation) on diesel exports, but taking that step — even for a very short time — has the potential to produce a wide range of unintended (and negative) consequences. Below are a few examples of how things could play out for refiners and consumers in the short and long term, although for brevity there are numerous potential impacts not detailed here. The U.S. produces more diesel than it consumes (which is why it’s a net exporter), so any ban or restriction on exports is likely to create a short-term domestic surplus and lead to initially lower prices. The first place we would expect to see an impact is along the Gulf Coast, home to most U.S. refinery capacity and the source of the large majority of diesel exports. If roughly 1.7 MMb/d of diesel (the U.S. weekly average since July, per EIA data) were prevented from being exported while refinery operations initially remained unchanged, the surplus would build quickly — by about 11 MMbbl per week. That’s equivalent to more than 10% of current U.S. distillate inventories. The market could not absorb those barrels for very long. Prices would have to fall far enough to discourage refinery output (more on that in a bit), stimulate domestic demand where possible and, importantly, make alternative outlets economically viable. While prices for Gulf Coast ultra-low-sulfur diesel (ULSD) could initially fall by a fairly large amount, the impacts are unpredictable and would likely vary significantly by region. Also of note, such a policy would likely cause RIN prices to skyrocket farther since these policies would push the soybean oil-ULSD differential much wider. Renewable diesel and biodiesel production margins, however, would likely still fall since the RIN price rise would be expected to only partially offset the wider soybean oil-ULSD differential.There would also be a significantly negative global impact. Removing 1.7 MMb/d of U.S. exports from an already tight market would push diesel prices substantially higher elsewhere as buyers compete for replacement barrels. A McKinsey analysis of a proposed refined products export ban in 2022 estimated that removing about 1.4 MMb/d of U.S. products could require a roughly $25/bbl increase in international product prices to bring marginal supply into the market. With global diesel inventories already unusually low and refinery capacity already stretched, the adjustment would likely be even more pronounced today. It’s also worth noting that previous well-intentioned (if sometimes ill-conceived) attempts by the government to control prices, such as after the 1973 oil embargo, have not been successful. Marketers always find clever ways to skirt the system. The implications of an export ban get more challenging after the initial shock to prices and barrels in storage. U.S. refiners produce more than 5 MMb/d of petroleum diesel, versus domestic consumption of less than 4 MMb/d. Refiners can tweak yields, but they cannot eliminate a surplus of that size through optimization. The initial response would likely come in stages. Refiners could move away from maximum-distillate operating modes, shift yields toward gasoline and naphtha where units allow, and push more diesel into domestic storage. But once tanks begin to fill and diesel economics deteriorate, the only lever remaining would be reducing crude throughput.At first, refinery runs, at least outside California, would change relatively little as the system absorbs the initial surplus, but that wouldn’t last long. As early as the second week, U.S. crude runs would start to decline noticeably, with the most immediate and major impacts likely felt in California, which along with the Gulf Coast is a net exporter of diesel and very limited on storage capacity. Within a month, a sustained ban could push the U.S. reduction in crude runs beyond 1 MMb/d, with ever-deeper cuts likely the longer the restrictions persisted and no alternative outlets emerged. If the policy persisted for more than 2-3 weeks, the Gulf Coast would bear the bulk of the adjustment, in absolute terms. With the region’s refinery utilization already in the high 90s%, a prolonged ban could push utilization down into the 80s%, with the exact level varying depending on how quickly inventories accumulate, with significant variation between individual refineries.With an export ban in place, U.S. diesel prices could have a two-stage trajectory. Retail diesel prices would initially move lower as inventories rose. But once refiners started to cut diesel production, the inventory build would start to slow and diesel prices would likely recover from their initial lows, although not necessarily back to today’s levels. It’s also important to remember that refiners cannot stop making diesel without also affecting gasoline, jet fuel and other products, so any move to shift yields away from diesel would impact other fuels too, potentially pushing up prices for those products even as diesel prices moved lower. As such, gasoline prices would likely increase considerably, especially once U.S. refiners start to cut throughput rates. California (which, as mentioned earlier, has also become a net exporter of diesel due to renewable mandates) and the surrounding states would likely be the first to feel this impact and would probably see the largest increase in gasoline prices, due to the high cost of long-haul imports necessary to replace the supply lost from refinery cutbacksAn export ban would also have a major impact on Latin America, especially Mexico. Mexico (green slice in Figure 2 below) was the #1 destination for U.S. distillate in H1 2026 with a 15.7% share. Regional neighbors Chile (dark-green slice), Ecuador (purple slice), Peru (light-blue slice), Brazil (dark-blue slice), Panama (brown slice), Guatemala (pink slice) and Argentina (black slice) made up most of the Top 10.  A ban would force Mexico to replace substantial volumes with barrels from places such as Europe, India, China or other Latin American suppliers (assuming that they could even find replacement barrels). That would likely mean higher landed diesel prices in Mexico, longer voyages, greater freight expense, more pressure to maximize Pemex refinery production (which likely isn’t even doable), heavier inventory draws and potentially tighter supply in northern Mexico. To add some perspective to Mexico, specifically, about 40% of Mexican diesel demand is supplied via U.S. imports. As such, Mexico (and much of the rest of Latin America) would likely face not only increasing diesel prices, but also physical shortages of the fuel. The global market is poorly positioned to replace any lost U.S. barrels. China raised its refined product exports to about 1 MMb/d in August, but even if it raised exports further, those volumes would not come close to making up for lost U.S. barrels. A ban or restriction on U.S. diesel exports might provide some very near-term relief to diesel consumers, but it could carry a much bigger long-term cost: undermining the economics of future refinery investment. As we noted in our most recent Future of Fuels report, U.S. refiners remain globally advantaged by scale, complexity, low-cost natural gas, flexible crude access (except for PADDs 1 and 5) and (especially in the case of the Gulf Coast) access to growing export markets. With domestic petroleum demand offering limited growth, incremental refinery expansions increasingly need access to global markets to justify the capital. Restricting diesel exports would effectively cap that upside. U.S. transportation-fuel exports averaged 2.4 MMb/d in 2025, with distillate — mostly diesel — accounting for more than half the total. That export outlet matters because U.S. refining capacity already exceeds domestic requirements in key regions, particularly PADD 3, which produced more fuel than it consumed even after capacity declined in 2025. Lower export realizations and greater regulatory uncertainty could also discourage debottlenecking, expansions and other investments, accelerating the shift from growth to rationalization. So, a policy aimed at increasing domestic fuel availability today could leave the U.S. with less refining capacity — and less supply flexibility — down the road. An export ban could be even more damaging for the West Coast (PADD 5), which has seen refining capacity move sharply lower over the past several years but remains a significant exporter of diesel today, shipping out about 120 Mb/d in H1 2026. (That’s a distant second to PADD 3 but well above the other PADD regions and significant relative to total regional diesel production.) PADD 5 refiners are challenged by high regulatory costs, declining regional gasoline demand and new inbound pipelines, such as the proposed Phillips 66/Kinder Morgan Western Gateway Pipeline. We already expect the region’s refining capacity to drop by about 1.2 MMb/d by 2050 to keep regional supply/demand in balance, so any mandated reduction in diesel exports, even for a short period, has the potential to encourage those capacity reductions to happen sooner rather than later. It’s important to note that even if a ban were only implemented for a short time, the mere precedent set by such a policy would remain a key negative factor in investment/closure decisions refiners make in the future.There’s also the potential upset to longtime trading patterns. This year’s market disruptions have served to highlight the U.S.’s role as a reliable supplier of all types of energy commodities, but an export ban could undermine those efforts and encourage other countries to diversify their supply mix away from the U.S., a concern noted during a fireside chat at our recent School of Energy: Fundamentals. (Click here for details on School of Energy Encore, a full replay of our conference that includes complete slide decks, Excel models and online-only material.)A diesel export ban might sound like a straightforward way to lower prices, but refined-product markets rarely cooperate with simple solutions. The initial benefit to U.S. consumers of diesel would give way to lower refinery runs, higher prices for other fuels, tighter supplies in international markets (especially to key allies) and, eventually, less U.S. refining capacity. With the U.S. now an essential supplier to a tight global market, restricting exports could reshuffle trade flows and investment decisions in ways that linger long after the ban ends.

Motor Gasoline Inventories Plummet to 12-Year Low as 3-2-1 Crack Spread Soars to All-Time High - Refiners have a strong incentive to keep running, but gasoline inventories are still struggling to keep pace. According to the EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) for the week ended September 25, U.S. motor gasoline stocks declined 1.7 MMbbl to just above 204 MMbbl, their lowest level since November 7, 2014.  As discussed in this week's Crude Billboard, the Midwest remains particularly tight, with PADD II inventories falling to approximately 41.8 MMbbl, nearly 6 MMbbl below the same week in 2025 and the lowest level on record for the region. One particular refinery outage to note was Exxon’s Joliet, Illinois refinery. Its 275 Mb/d CDU was shut at 3:16 pm on September 13 due to a power outage.That thin inventory cushion leaves little room for production losses as fall maintenance and unplanned outages reduce refinery throughput. The supply squeeze has helped keep all eyes on this year’s extraordinary refining economics. Gasoline cracks surged to $68.74/bbl midweek (far right of orange line in chart below) before easing to just above $60/bbl at Friday’s close, three times their year-ago level, helping push the benchmark 3-2-1 crack to a record $80.63/bbl (blue line in chart below). Together, those margins provide a compelling reason for refiners to sustain elevated runs where operating schedules allow, even as maintenance limits their ability to replenish depleted product inventories.

A Matter of Trust – Variations in Crude Oil Quality Make On-Spec Delivery Critical for Global Refiners | RBN Energy - As anyone who has ever bought a used car knows, appearances can be deceiving. Two vehicles may look nearly identical from the outside, but what’s under the hood can make all the difference in performance, reliability and value. The same principle applies to crude oil, as barrels that meet the same basic specifications can still behave very differently once they reach a refinery. In today’s RBN blog, we conclude our look at crude quality by examining why maintaining consistent specifications has become more challenging as Permian production has grown, blending practices have evolved, and WTI Midland has become a cornerstone of global crude pricing.As anyone who has ever bought a used car knows, appearances can be deceiving. Two vehicles may look nearly identical from the outside, but what’s under the hood can make all the difference in performance, reliability and value. The same principle applies to crude oil, as barrels that meet the same basic specifications can still behave very differently once they reach a refinery. In today’s RBN blog, we conclude our look at crude quality by examining why maintaining consistent specifications has become more challenging as Permian production has grown, blending practices have evolved, and WTI Midland has become a cornerstone of global crude pricing. As discussed in Part 1, crude oil is not a uniform commodity; each stream has a unique chemical composition that affects its value and how it performs throughout the supply chain. The two primary measures of crude quality are API gravity (density) and sulfur content. In general, crude oils above about 35 degrees (°) API are considered light (blue-shaded rows in Figure 1 below); those between roughly 25° and 35° API fall into the medium category (pink-shaded rows); and anything lower than 25° is heavy (green-shaded rows). Sweet crude has relatively little sulfur, typically less than about 0.5%, while sour crude contains more than that. Light, sweet crudes generally produce higher yields of valuable products like gasoline, diesel and jet fuel with less refining, while heavier or more sulfur-rich crudes require additional processing and involve higher costs. Other quality factors — including distillation characteristics, molecular composition, carbon residue, acidity, metals and mercaptans — also influence refinery efficiency, equipment reliability, catalyst performance and overall market value.Crude quality has become increasingly important as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at Midland has taken on a larger role in global oil markets, including its inclusion in the Brent benchmark. Because WTI is marketed as a light, sweet, low-contaminant crude, maintaining consistent quality is essential for buyers and refiners. But quality can differ between barrels of crude from different locations, even if it is considered the same grade. When exporting crude from the U.S., there are four load regions we typically look at: Corpus Christi, Houston, Beaumont and Louisiana. Recent attention has focused on elevated levels of metals such as iron, nickel and vanadium, which can damage refinery equipment and reduce crude value. As a result, stricter testing, blending controls, pipeline standards and quality specifications help ensure that WTI remains a reliable and fungible global benchmark. Those standards are essential because European refineries are typically not as complex as their U.S. counterparts, meaning they are not able to filter, manage and tolerate contaminants as well as the more complex refineries are able to do.The observed sulfur limit on Platts WTI Midland stands at 0.2% and cargoes loaded from the Gulf Coast prior to Midland’s inclusion in the Brent benchmark trended between 0.09%-0.15%, while other contaminants didn’t garner as much attention. But in the past couple of years, reports have begun to pop up highlighting concerns about elevated iron and other metals in a small number of shipments, prompting tighter quality checks and closer enforcement. A recent example occurred at the Texas International Terminal in the Houston area. Details remain limited, but Platts stripped the terminal of its Brent eligibility earlier this year. Its removal was likely not linked to one singular issue, but rather a combination of off-spec quality concerns, draft limitations and schedule impacts, where it is believed the vessel arrived outside of the allocated window. WTI Midland can still be loaded from the terminal, but the barrels shipped are not currently being factored into Dated Brent price formation, and uncertainty remains about how long the terminal’s “probationary period” will last.. There are several reasons why crude quality has become more difficult to ensure in recent years:

• Upstream gathering systems are becoming increasingly complex. As production spreads over a wider area and more streams feed into shared lines and hubs, crude characteristics can vary more from batch to batch.
• Evolving blending practices are another factor. Operators often combine different streams to meet pipeline specifications or optimize logistics, but crude oil produced in different formations can have varying characteristics (see Iron Man). For example, crude oil from the Wolfcamp formation (yellow-shaded area in Figure 2 below) in the Permian Basin contains higher iron content than formations in the surrounding areas.
• Conditions inside an area’s pipeline infrastructure could also play a role. Over time, pipeline corrosion or internal scale buildup might introduce small amounts of iron into crude moving through the system.

Global supply dynamics may also be influencing the market (and impacting crude quality and blending) in less-direct ways. One example is West Texas Sour (WTS), a Permian-produced grade that typically receives strong demand from regional refineries for asphalt production and as a blendstock to bring lighter crudes down to WTI gravity specifications. WTS has seen increased pricing volatility recently, with premiums to Domestic Sweet (DSW) as high as $4.45/bbl and discounts as low as $4.90/bbl (orange line in Figure 3 below) in the last few months. Several factors are likely at play. Global light-heavy crude differentials widened in late 2025 and early 2026 as shifts in the global supply/demand balance altered the relative value of heavier barrels like WTS. At the same time, Delek, historically one of the largest consumers of WTS, completed a major refinery turnaround during Q1 2026, temporarily reducing demand. In addition, asphalt margins were weak in early 2026 compared to transportation fuel margins, giving refiners less incentive to maximize asphalt production or pay a premium for WTS. Instead, many refiners have been better off running lighter crudes that yield a greater share of higher-value fuels, particularly in West Texas and southeast New Mexico.In such environments, some traders/marketing shops have a commercial incentive to blend portions of WTS into West Texas Light (WTL) in order to upgrade the crude to WTI. However, these cheaper barrels typically have higher levels of sulfur, iron, vanadium and nickel. Thus, such blending could elevate the crude’s metals content, even if the final blended crude remains technically within pipeline specifications. Pipeline operators also play an important role in managing crude quality. These enforcement actions can effectively segment crude flows, separating higher-quality streams from lower-quality barrels moving through the broader transportation network. These dynamics could eventually lead to a kind of bifurcation within WTI streams. In this scenario, one stream would resemble traditional WTI, with sulfur levels around roughly 0.15% and relatively consistent characteristics. Another stream might push closer to sulfur levels of 0.4% and potentially carry higher hydrogen sulfide content. Although they are technically still within the specs, they are potentially skirting the line.If such a divergence were to develop, operators would likely need to maintain separate storage (if they do not already have separate facilities) for different streams before blending them later to meet final delivery specifications. Different crude qualities could then move toward different end users. Higher-quality barrels might flow toward export terminals and refineries optimized for lighter feedstocks, while slightly heavier or sourer streams could be directed toward refining complexes better equipped to handle them.  Blending, of course, is nothing new in crude markets, as we discussed in Turner Mason and the Goblet of Light & Heavy. Marketing/trading companies have long combined different streams, mainly to drive higher profit margins but also to bring barrels back within specification limits. Lower-quality crude can often be diluted with higher-quality barrels to produce a final blend that meets pipeline or benchmark requirements. Even so, some market participants argue that these blending practices could gradually change the overall character of crude reaching the Gulf Coast.  In that sense, what ultimately arrives at export terminals may increasingly resemble a blended DSW crude rather than the classic WTI profile many international buyers have historically expected. However, the strict specs on WTI included in the Brent basket prevent this level of deterioration in the quality of Houston WTI. For example, Cushing blenders can blend considerable amounts of Canadian heavy crude while still meeting DSW specs. The same operation is basically impossible in Houston due to the strict metals specs on WTI that is destined for inclusion in the Dated Brent basket.So … has crude oil quality gotten more or less consistent since the inclusion of WTI in the Brent basket? The short answer is: more consistent overall, but not because the crude itself became more uniform. Rather, the benchmark now has a much larger and more standardized pool of eligible barrels, even while quality differences inside the basket have actually increased in some respects. While quality issues appear to crop up more often, that’s partly a function of scale. With significantly higher volumes and tighter specifications, there are simply more barrels to monitor and more opportunities for off-spec cargoes to draw attention. From a market perspective, many traders would say the benchmark has become more stable and representative, even though the eligible crude slate is less homogeneous. An interesting consequence is that WTI Midland frequently sets the Dated Brent price because it is often the cheapest qualifying barrel. In 2024, it was setting the benchmark more than half the time. According to Reuters, there were zero cargoes of North Sea Brent crude initially scheduled to load in August for the first time since LSEG data began tracking in 2007.In the end, the credibility of any benchmark crude depends on trust. Buyers need confidence that the barrels they purchase will behave predictably in their refineries. If market participants cannot rely on consistent specifications across pipelines, terminals and export hubs, it could eventually undermine the attractiveness of U.S. Gulf Coast WTI in global markets. Strengthening quality controls upstream in the basin and maintaining transparency around crude specifications could help ensure that WTI continues to hold its place as one of the world’s most trusted benchmark crude grades.

Permian Natural Gas Production Still Near Record Highs | RBN Energy -  Permian natural gas production during the week ended September 28 averaged 23.5 Bcf/d, which was just 0.1 Bcf/d lower than the record high average of the prior two weeks. In general production remains extremely high and has been climbing this month since Hugh Brinson Phase 1 began service. With just a few days left in the month, production has averaged around 23.6 Bcf/d, up 0.5 Bcf/d month-on-month and up over 1.6 Bcf/d since the Gulf Coast Express expansion came online in June. The high production levels are visible in the orange line in the graph below. The two new takeaway capacity projects have debottlenecked the basin and more capacity is still coming this year. Blackcomb Pipeline is commissioning and will begin full commercial service before the end of the year. RBN expects production to climb to just under 24 Bcf/d by the end of the year, which is nearly 2 Bcf/d above the level of six months earlier before new capacity came online. While incredibly strong, that growth in supply is much less than the new takeaway capacity, which leaves room for continued production growth next year and beyond. To the point, eastbound capacity from the Permian was not fully in use last week. Outflows to the East averaged 14.3 Bcf/d during the week ended September 28, which was 0.3 Bcf/d lower than the prior week. Flows to the East remain strong, but reported outflows on Whistler Pipeline, which had been incredibly high for most of this month, eased slightly last week.

Michigan tribes file request to overturn state permits for Line 5 tunnel - Great Lakes Now - The move by tribes follows the Whitmer administration’s request for a state agency to review the same permits using new guidance from a Michigan Supreme Court ruling.Four Michigan tribes asked state regulators on Thursday to overturn permits for the plan to update an aging segment of the Line 5 pipeline in the Straits of Mackinac.Tribes said that construction on the fossil fuel pipeline would threaten their ways of life by damaging cultural and environmental resources, in their request to the Department of Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy (EGLE) for an administrative hearing to contest the permit.If granted, the hearing will allow parties to submit evidence and testimony in front of an administrative judge who makes a decision on the permit.The move by tribes comes after the Whitmer administration this week asked the agency to review the same permits using new guidance from a Michigan Supreme Court ruling.Whitney Gravelle, president of the Bay Mills Indian Community, said in a statement that the tunnel is a trap designed to keep Line 5 operating in the straits for generations to come.“It is time for Michigan to right this wrong by honoring its commitments to Tribal Nations and choosing a future that protects our waters rather than locking us into future generations of risk,” she said.Enbridge Energy wants to encase a new segment of its pipeline carrying oil and natural gas liquids in a tunnel buried beneath the Straits.In a statement, the company said it already has an agreement from 2017 with the state to build the tunnel. Without years of litigation and political intervention, this project would be moving toward completion,” said spokesperson Ryan Duffy.The company received a water resources permit for the tunnel project from EGLE on July 15. Despite acknowledging “adverse” impacts on ecological and tribal resources, state regulators said it’s better than an oil spill in the Great Lakes.Two weeks later, the Michigan Supreme Court vacated a tunnel permit issued by a different state agency — the Michigan Public Service Commission — saying that the scope of harm under consideration was too narrow and sent it back for more review. Justices told the agency to review the permit again. The project has received federal approval, and EGLE is expected to decide on a separate wastewater discharge permit before the end of the month.

Oil spill reported on Mississippi River near Winona (KTTC) – According to Winona County Emergency Manager Ben Klinger, Winona County Dispatch was contacted about an oil spill on the Mississippi River near Lock and Dam 5A, roughly 10 miles north of Winona along U.S. Highway 61. The incident was reported to the Minnesota Duty Officer at approximately 2:46 p.m. on Monday. The Winona Fire Department and Winona County Emergency Management were subsequently notified. Klinger stated the release involved less than 50 gallons of diesel fuel from a tugboat. Winona Fire deployed a containment boom to help prevent the fuel from spreading. Further investigation into the cause of the incident will be handled by the U.S. Coast Guard. Cleanup is being completed by a contracted environmental cleanup company hired by the responsible party.

October Heat Wave Poised to Extend California Natural Gas Price Rally -California natural gas demand is poised to jump over the coming week as an October heat wave settles over the state, extending support for a SoCal Citygate premium that has swelled to its widest in three weeks. Graphic: Pacific natural gas power burn demand forecast to jump near 5 Bcf/d in early October 2026, more than double year-ago levels. At a Glance:
Pacific power burn forecast near 4.8 Bcf/d
California gas-fired output jumps 48%
Cooling demand runs four times normal

US Natural Gas Exports to Mexico Hit September Record as Power Demand Grows - September was another strong month for US natural gas exports to Mexico, helping to drive demand for supplies of the fuel from the South Central region. Agua Dulce and Waha bidweek natural gas prices compared with US pipeline exports to Mexico from October 2023 to October 2026.  At a Glance:
South Texas flows average 5.15 Bcf/d
West Texas supplies another 2.06 Bcf/d
South Central storage trails year-ago levels

Ksi Lisims LNG Signs 1 MMtpa Agreement with Centrica | RBN Energy  - Ksi Lisims LNG has signed a Heads Of Agreement (HOA) with British energy company Centric Energy for 1 MMtpa of LNG (approximately 135 MMcf/d) for a term of 20 years, on an FOB basis, subject to the completion of a Sale and Purchase Agreement (SPA), according to a September 30 press release.  This agreement brings the total capacity with SPAs or HOAs to 9 MMtpa. In May, the CEO of co-owner and project operator Western LNG LLC was quoted as wanting 8-9 MMtpa of capacity under SPAs before making a positive Final Investment Decision. Shell, TotalEnergies, and Uniper have each signed long-term SPAs for 2 MMtpa, and earlier this year Ksi Lisims announced HOAs for 1 MMtpa with both SEFE and Santos.The September 30 press release also noted that the project has secured “Project of National Interest” status from the Government of Canada, which was expected, and should help expedite the project through federal regulatory processes.The Ksi Lisims LNG project is a proposed 12 MMtpa floating LNG project to be located on Pearse Island in northwest British Columbia, that would take in 1.7-2.0 Bcf/d of natural gas and be amongst the lowest emissions LNG export facilities in the world (see chart below). The consortium is owned by Houston-based Western LNG, Rockies LNG Partners, and the Nisga’a Nation. For more information on the project see our Analyst Insight from May.

Another ‘Vote of Confidence’ in Ksi Lisims, Canadian LNG With Latest Supply Deal - The Ksi Lisims LNG project being developed in British Columbia (BC) announced Wednesday it has signed a tentative deal to sell UK utility Centrica 1 Mt/y of the super-chilled fuel in another sign of growing momentum for Canadian natural gas exports. North American LNG netback prices compared with AECO, SoCal Border, Transco Zone 5 and Waha forward prices through October 2027.   At a Glance:
Centrica signs HOA for 1 Mt/y
Ksi Lisims commits 9 of 12 Mt/y
Middle East conflict spurs contracting wave

Tourmaline Eyes Data Centers, Oilsands to Drive Next Phase of Canadian Natural Gas Growth - Industrial demand from Alberta’s oilsands and a surging data center sector could add to LNG export growth in driving Canadian natural gas demand, according to Jamie Heard, vice president of capital markets at Canada’s top natural gas producer, Tourmaline. Meta’s Sturgeon Data Centre campus in Alberta, Canada, featuring multiple large data center buildings.  At a Glance:

• Alberta eyes 1 Bcf/d data center demand
• Oilsands require additional gas supply
• Pipeline constraints threaten industrial growth

AECO Gains as LNG Canada Expansion Adds 2 Bcf/d of Natural Gas Demand --Western Canadian natural gas producers got a boost Tuesday from news that Shell had sanctioned the second phase of LNG Canada.NGI NOVA/AECO C MidDay natural gas price chart showing Alberta benchmark prices from September 2025 through September 2026, with prices rebounding toward $2.00/MMBtu in late September..  At a Glance:
Shell targets early 2030s startup
Westcoast Station 2 jumps C22.0 cents
Expansion doubles LNG capacity to 28 Mt/y

Shell Greenlights LNG Canada Expansion Amid Global Supply Crunch - Shell on Tuesday sanctioned the second phase of LNG Canada, which would double the facility’s capacity to 28 Mt/y and boost output at a time when roughly 20% of global supplies have been curbed indefinitely by the Iran war. At a Glance:

• Expansion doubles capacity to 28 Mt/y
• Startup targeted for early 2030s
• Global LNG supply disruptions bolster expansion

Let the Fun Begin! LNG Canada Partners Sanction Phase 2 Expansion | RBN Energy - On September 29, 2026, the five joint venture (JV) partners in LNG Canada announced that they had reached a decision to proceed with the expansion of the LNG Canada site that will result in a doubling of its LNG liquefaction capacity from 14 million tonnes per annum (MMtpa, ~1.8 Bcf/d) to 28 MMtpa (~3.6 Bcf/d). No timeline to completion of the expansion or costs were announced, but industry speculation is that the expansion will be completed in the second half of 2031 or the first half of 2032. Press reports have suggested the expansion's total cost as approaching C$33 billion (US$23 billion). Based on equity ownership, the JV partners in LNG Canada are: Shell (40%), Petronas (25%, with 5% of the 25% implicitly held by Saudi-backed MidOcean), PetroChina (15%), Mitsubishi (15%) and KOGAS (5%). LNG Canada is located near the town of Kitimat, BC on Canada’s West Coast (purple diamond in map above) and is currently the only operating LNG liquefaction export site in Canada, although several others are under construction or are well advanced in the planning process. LNG Canada’s expansion work will include: the construction of two additional LNG trains on the site’s existing footprint which was already sized for potential future expansion; the construction of an additional LNG storage tank, condensate tank, loading berth and additional systems. The JV partners also confirmed that the positive sanctioning will trigger the implementation of an equity agreement originally announced on July 14 with five neighboring First Nations that will result in the investment of up to C$1 billion (US$705 million) in a special purpose equity firm, MNT Investments LP, that will purchase the second LNG storage tank and lease it back to the JV partners for the life of the project. This transaction was described as one of the largest Indigenous ownership positions in major Canadian infrastructureRelated to the expansion work, the Coastal GasLink (CGL) Pipeline, which feeds gas to the Kitimat site from producing areas in northeast BC (orange line in map above), will double its throughput capacity from the current 2.5 Bcf/d to 5.0 Bcf/d with the addition of five new compressor stations. CGL will, in the future, also be sending additional gas supplies to the under-construction Cedar LNG project (green striped diamond) which is currently scheduled for completion in 2028 and located a short distance from LNG Canada.In terms of more recent activity at LNG Canada, the site’s gas intake for August was reported as 1.54 Bcf/d (green bar in chart above). Given that export activity from the site in September has been close to matching the rate of August after allowing for what appeared to be a brief shutdown earlier this month, gas intake in September is currently estimated to be 1.45 Bcf/d (red bar). LNG Canada began commercial operations in June 2025 and to date has shipped nearly 140 cargoes of LNG to Asian destinations.

Westward Ho! — North American Gas Finding the Short Way to Asia -- For a decade, the story of North American LNG has been written almost entirely along the Gulf Coast, where a flood of liquefaction capacity stretches from Corpus Christi to Plaquemines Parish. But for the important and growing Asian gas market, the Gulf Coast is a long way away. A cargo from Louisiana bound for Tokyo has to squeeze through the Panama Canal or take the long way around the Cape of Good Hope. That means a voyage of three weeks or more, versus roughly 10-12 days from British Columbia or Baja California. The tide of West Coast gas projects is rising and there has been a flurry of announcements in the last couple of weeks. The biggest came on September 29, when LNG Canada announced a positive final investment decision to proceed with Phase 2 (orange diamond in map below, for more, see our blog, Beautiful Day). The expansion doubles the Kitimat facility's production capacity from 14 MMtpa (~1.8 Bcf/d) to 28 MMtpa (~3.6 Bcf/d), with commercial operations expected to begin in the early 2030s. The JV's ownership tells you where the molecules are headed. Shell's partners include Malaysia's PETRONAS (25%), China's PetroChina (15%), Japan's Mitsubishi Corporation (15%), and South Korea's KOGAS (5%). And a second wave is filling in behind LNG Canada. Woodfibre LNG near Squamish is a 2.1-MMtpa (~285 MMcf/d) facility targeting in-service in late 2027, and it was reported in April that the project is looking to double or triple in size (teal striped diamond). Cedar LNG, the Haisla/Pembina floating LNG project, remains on track for a late-2028 startup (pink striped diamond). Once fully operational, it would add roughly 3.3 MMtpa (~450 MMcf/d) of feed gas demand pulling on WCSB supply via Coastal GasLink (yellow line). Next up for FID is Ksi Lisims (purple checkered diamond). The floating LNG project north of Prince Rupert recently signed another tentative supply deal ahead of a final investment decision expected by the end of 2026, and it now has tentative sales deals for 9 MMtpa of its projected 12 MMtpa. We wrote a detailed update on the Canadian projects recently in Shut Up and Drive.  And the West Coast pull isn't limited to Canadian Montney supply. Permian gas is increasingly being plumbed toward Mexico's Pacific coast as well. As we will detail in an upcoming blog, on September 21, ESENTIA Energy Development agreed to acquire the Guadalajara-Manzanillo pipeline for $400 million from TC Energy. Esentia Energy’s pending acquisition of the Guadalajara-Manzanillo Pipeline, would give the company the last link in a chain of connecting pipelines that together — for the first time — would enable gas to flow along an integrated system from the Waha Hub to Mexico’s west coast. That matters because all or part of that expanded capacity could be employed by the proposed Gato Negro LNG project being planned by a group of investors led by Mexican entrepreneurs Carlos Camacho and Emilio Fuentes. The current plan calls for the project to be developed in three 3-MMtpa (400 MMcf/d) phases, with the first phase beginning commercial operation as soon as 2030-31 and the second and third phases following over the next two or three years. Farther north in Baja, Sempra's ECA LNG has shown both the promise and the growing pains of being first. The inaugural cargo was lifted by TotalEnergies and shipped to Asia. However, a planned post-cargo inspection uncovered damage in the refrigerant compressors, which pushed substantial completion to 4Q26. Mexico Pacific's 15-MMtpa (2 Bcf/d) Saguaro project in Sonora remains the biggest Mexican wildcard. After missing its December 2025 export commencement deadline, the developer asked DOE to push commercial operations out to 2032. Then there's Alaska, the longest-running "almost there" project in North American energy (see Road to Alaska). On September 30, President Trump announced that Alaska LNG would receive $54 billion from South Korea as part of an overall $200 billion investment agreement in U.S. energy infrastructure. That headline number covers nearly the whole project, since Glenfarne estimates the cost at up to $55 billion. But Seoul's framing was notably cooler. Korea's trade minister said the government is reviewing the project and will invest only if commercial viability is established. The commercial book is also not yet complete. Glenfarne holds preliminary, nonbinding agreements for 13 MMtpa across Asia, three million tons short of what it says it needs to finance the project. Still, the pitch is the same one driving every project on this list: proximity. Alaska avoids the Panama Canal entirely, and it gives Korean and Japanese buyers an energy-security hedge alongside a trade-policy relief valve.  Add it all up and the West Coast is a surging second front for North American LNG. On one side are Canadian and Alaskan supply basins getting increased access to a tidewater outlet. On the other is Permian gas taking the cross-border escape hatch through Mexico to reach the Pacific. The Gulf Coast will remain the volume king for years. But for Asian buyers counting days at sea, canal fees, and chokepoint risk, the marginal North American cargo is increasingly going to start its journey on the Pacific side of the continent.

IER Wants Canadian Oil and Gas Counted as American-Made -- Marcellus Drilling News --Here’s an argument you don’t hear every day: the oil and natural gas the United States buys from Canada shouldn’t count as “imports” at all. That’s the case laid out in a new report from the Institute for Energy Research (IER), published September 18. Change how Washington keeps the books, IER argues, and the alarming-sounding trade deficit with Canada very nearly disappears — no tariffs, no trade war, just honest accounting.

Trump set to unveil $54B South Korean investment in Alaska LNG - - President Donald Trump unveiled a $200 billion package of investments from South Korea Wednesday, including proposed funds for a long-stalled liquefied natural gas project in Alaska. The announcement is part of a White House effort to highlight economic wins ahead of the midterms and featured heavy praise for Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska), who is fighting to win reelection this fall and attended the event at the White House announcing the funding. But the South Korean government has only said that it is considering the Alaska project and has not confirmed that it approved funding — which would go well beyond the $20 billion cap that Korea’s National Assembly put in place in March for annual outbound investment to the U.S. The South Korean embassy did not immediately respond to a request for comment. According to the White House, the South Korean government will put money into U.S. energy projects including a natural gas power plant in Texas and eight nuclear power plants. They are the first investment announcements to come out of an August 2025 trade deal in which Seoul agreed to invest $350 billion in projects in exchange for reductions in threatened U.S. tariffs — which includes $150 billion for shipbuilding projects. “The colossal package of investments that we are announcing today is a major step toward securing our critical energy supply chain, ensuring American energy dominance and making our partnership with South Korea and the entire Pacific region more powerful than ever before,” Trump said. Bloomberg first reported the investment news. The White House was quick to celebrate the potential $54 billion investment in the proposed Alaska LNG project, which would include an 800-mile pipeline to carry gas from the North Slope to an export terminal on the state’s south coast. The pipeline funding would be a massive boost to a project that has been stalled for decades amid questions around its massive price tag and ability to find customers. The Trump administration has explored a range of options to speed its development. Brendan Duval, the CEO of Glenfarne, a New York and Texas-based developer in charge of the project, said at the White House event the pipeline would be built within three years and that construction could start immediately after receiving funding.

United States Teases $50B-Plus Alaska LNG Plan as Seoul Reviews Terms - The Trump administration unveiled plans for South Korean investments that could direct more than $50 billion toward Alaska LNG, potentially opening a major new source of financing for the long-planned export project. Seoul, however, has only agreed to review the project and has not stated whether it would invest, nor how much. At a Glance:

• US outlines $50B-plus Alaska investment
• South Korea says commitment not final
• Public financing could reshape project economics

Korea to Trump: We aren’t funding your Alaska pipeline, yet - The Korean government denied Thursday morning that it has finalized an investment for a long-stalled Alaskan natural gas project, less than 24 hours after President Donald Trump tried to help boost the state’s Republican senator with a flashy Oval Office funding announcement. “This is a great senator, who is totally responsible for this pipeline,” Trump said of Sen. Dan Sullivan, who stood beside him Wednesday at the White House. “This is a man that works with me, shoulder to shoulder.” There is just one problem: Korea says the pipeline investment is still under review. Korean President Lee Jae Myung and several other members of his government said Thursday that their investment in the Alaska pipeline remains conditional. “The Alaska LNG project will proceed to working level under the preconditions that 1) its commercial viability is confirmed and 2) it complies with the legal procedures of the Republic of Korea,” Lee posted on X Thursday morning, according to a translation. The government also issued a release saying “the two countries have agreed to begin reviewing the project,” and will proceed based on “commercial reasonableness requirements.” The project involves a large-scale natural gas pipeline to transport energy from northern Alaska to the southern part of the state and would create a terminal that would help facilitate exports to Asian countries like South Korea and Japan. Presidents have been promising to tap into those isolated natural gas reserves in northern Alaska since the Carter administration, but several efforts have failed to attract investment due to concerns about cost and future returns. Trump on Wednesday claimed South Korea had committed $54 billion in funding for the project as part of a $350 billion U.S. investment pledge Seoul made last year in a deal to lower threatened U.S. tariffs. He also said that Korea would spend around $120 billion on eight nuclear plants across four states and around $20 billion on a natural gas power plant in Texas. It was the latest in a series of events the White House has held in recent days to tout massive foreign investment for projects in midterm battleground states — even if the details remain fuzzy. Earlier this week, the administration highlighted a new steel plant in Iowa, but some industry experts are skeptical that the plant will be built given the troubled financial past of Mesabi Metallics, the company linked to it, and the fact that its projections are based on the current high U.S. steel prices. Trump made it clear Wednesday that the LNG investment announcement had to do with Sullivan’s election chances. He denounced the fact that another candidate named Dan Sullivan — who is running as an independent — was allowed on Alaska’s ballot in November and told the reporters gathered that the incumbent Sullivan had his ear. “I have to tell you this because he has an election,” Trump said at one point. Trump and Sullivan emphasized Wednesday that the pipeline project would be transformative for Alaskans, and a developer claimed the project would be done in three years. No members of the Korean government spoke during the White House announcement. If they had, they might have pointed out that the government in Seoul had already allocated its annual $20 billion U.S. investment commitment for the natural gas power plant in Texas — another state where Republicans are in a closely contested Senate race.

TotalEnergies Pitches Natural Gas Growth in Global Market Constrained by Iran War - TotalEnergies said this week it would spend $14–17 billion annually between 2027 and 2032 to boost energy production and LNG sales as the world confronts potential shortfalls with a conflict in the Middle East that shows no signs of ending. At a Glance:

• Highlights plans to spend $14–17 billion
• Oil and gas output to grow by over 3%
• Growth key amid Iran war

Global Natural Gas Prices Surge as Diplomacy Fails, LNG Supplies Stay Tight - Asian and European natural gas prices were climbing again on Monday as hopes for a quick reopening of the Strait of Hormuz faded.European Union natural gas storage chart showing inventories at 64.7% full as of Aug. 29, 2026, below the five-year average, with historical storage levels from 2021 through 2026. At a Glance:
TTF, JKM climbing again
Trump rejects Iranian proposal
Shipping targeted in Hormuz

Qatar's UCC Eyes Expansion into Venezuelan Oil and Gas - Qatari producer UCC Oil and Gas Holding is in talks for its possible entrance into new fields in Venezuela, the company's head of Upstream, Erik Keskula, said on Tuesday at a conference in Caracas. UCC, British BP and XRG, a unit of United Arab Emirates' state company ADNOC, last month were granted a long-term license to develop the Loran gas project, one of the largest in Venezuela's waters and which extends into Trinidad and Tobago. The pact gave the group rights to produce up to 4 ⁠trillion cubic feet of gas in Loran, whose total reserves are estimated at 7.3 TCF. Energy producer Shell SHEL.L was granted a parallel license for the same gas field. "We have interest in everything, really," Keskula said. "We are looking for the right opportunities in all sectors." Venezuela's interim President Delcy Rodriguez discussed cooperation opportunities in a recent meeting in Caracas with Qatar's Minister of State Mohammed bin Abdulaziz Al-Khulaifi, Qatar's foreign affairs ministry said on Tuesday on X, without providing more details.

Oil, Natural Gas Firms Bet ‘Interest Is So Strong’ in Venezuela, It Outweighs Political Risk --The recent diplomatic thaw between Venezuela and neighboring Trinidad and Tobago marks a critical turning point for regional energy integration, and could mean more LNG from the Americas reaches an energy-hungry global market. At a Glance:

• Offshore gas offers new export potential
• Existing pipelines ease regional integration
• United States remains key to projects

Russia's pipeline gas exports to Europe down 13.3% in September year-on-year -- Russian energy giant Gazprom's average daily natural gas supplies to Europe via the TurkStream undersea pipeline declined 13.3% from a year earlier to 44.8 million cubic meters in September. Russian energy giant Gazprom's average daily natural gas supplies to Europe via the TurkStream undersea pipeline declined 13.3% from a year earlier to 44.8 million cubic meters in September, Reuters calculations showed. Turkey is the only transit route left for Russian gas to Europe after Ukraine declined to extend a five-year deal with Moscow that expired in January 2025. Calculations based on data from European gas transmission group Entsog showed that total Russian gas supplies to Europe via TurkStream stood at 1.34 billion cubic meters last month, down from 1.55 bcm in September 2025. Russian gas exports fell due to maintenance work on the pipeline section at the Strandzha-2 border entry point through which gas is delivered to Bulgaria. Bulgarian gas transmission operator Bulgartransgaz said the section underwent reconstruction from September 21 to September 26. For the first nine months of the year, supplies increased by 1.2% to around 13.2 bcm year-on-year. Gazprom, which has not published its own monthly statistics since the start of 2023, did not respond to a request for comment. The company's gas exports to Europe sank by 44% last year to just 18 bcm, the lowest since the mid-1970s, following the closure of the Ukrainian route, according to Reuters calculations. Russian pipeline gas exports to Europe peaked at around 180 bcm per year in 2018-2019.

Asia Retakes LNG Premium Over Europe as Mild Weather Curbs Heating Demand - Mild forecasts across Europe and a warmer outlook for North Asia are holding back early-season heating demand, as Asian buyers pull ahead of Europe in the competition for flexible US cargoes.Europe and Asia daily temperatures compared with normal in Northwest Europe, Beijing, Seoul and Tokyo through Oct. 2, 2026.  At a Glance:
Asia reclaims premium over Europe
Europe warmth holds through midweek
Tropical Storm Choi-Wan strengthening near Guam

Indian Coast Guard saves flooding chemical tanker and 23 crew from capsizing off Odisha -A little over a month after the bulk carrier MV Ocean Winner sank off Odisha with 22 of its crew, the Indian Coast Guard (ICG) on Sunday pulled another stricken merchant vessel back from the brink in the state's maritime approaches. This time, all 23 crew members are safe. The Belize-flagged chemical tanker MT Seagull 9, laden with 9,000 tonnes of palm oil, sent out a distress call around 7.30 am on Sunday after its main engine failed and a ballast tank began flooding rapidly. The vessel was about 37 nautical miles east-southeast of Paradip and was listing "dangerously", the ICG said on Monday. The Coast Guard rushed its offshore patrol vessel ICGS Vishwast to the spot. A specialist damage-control team boarded the unstable tanker "under challenging conditions" and deployed submersible de-flooding pumps. Subsequently, the team blanked two damaged seawater pipelines and contained a third fractured line. Working alongside the ship's crew, it carried out cargo-transfer and de-flooding operations simultaneously, "effectively stabilizing the tanker and eliminating the threat of capsizing", the maritime force said. With 9,000 tonnes of palm oil on board, the Coast Guard also moved to contain the risk of a spill. It diverted a pollution-control vessel and another offshore patrol vessel to the area, while a Dornier maritime surveillance aircraft operating from Bhubaneswar flew sorties over the tanker. A minor palm-oil sheen spotted near the vessel on Sunday was found to have fully dissipated during follow-up sorties on Monday, an official said. The stabilised tanker was subsequently taken under tow by Paradip Port Authority tug Dolphin towards the anchorage off the port. Its main engine is being repaired with assistance from the technical team of ICGS Vishwast. "ICGS Vishwast, alongside the deployed specialised assets, remains on scene maintaining an active sentinel watch and providing continuous operational support," the official added. The ICG has not disclosed what caused the ballast tank to flood, the extent of damage to the vessel or its last port of call and destination. The rescue stands in contrast to the fate of MV Ocean Winner. The Panama-flagged bulk carrier left Paradip on August 20 with about 72,000 tonnes of iron ore fines and sank two days later, roughly 230-240 nautical miles off the Odisha coast. An Indian Navy P-8I aircraft spotted liferafts and guided the nearby merchant tanker Aisopos to the area. The tanker rescued two Chinese crew members. A week-long search followed, involving Coast Guard ships, Navy aircraft and vessels, merchant ships and two Chinese vessels. The search yielded an empty lifeboat and an emergency beacon before being called off, with the remaining 22 seafarers presumed dead. The Coast Guard is India's central coordinating authority for combating oil spills in Indian waters. Paradip has a Tier-I oil-spill response facility and regularly conducts pollution-response exercises involving the Coast Guard, port authorities and state agencies. The most recent regional exercise at the port was held in December last year. The same port also witnessed a fuel-spill incident earlier in May, when a pipeline carrying petrol from a vessel to an Indian Oil Corporation terminal ruptured and spilled thousands of litres of fuel into nearby water bodies and the sea.

Oman returns 135 tonnes of oil-polluted sand to beach after cleaning it - Nearly a year after oil pollution affected parts of Dhofar's coastline, Oman has returned treated sand to Awqad Beach after removing oil contaminants through a specialised cleaning process. What happens to beach sand after it becomes contaminated with oil? In Oman, the answer was not simply to throw it away. Around 135 tonnes of contaminated sand have been cleaned and returned to Awqad Beach in Salalah, as authorities continue efforts to restore part of Dhofar's coastline affected by oil pollution in 2025. The sand was part of around 190 tonnes of contaminated material removed from the area during the clean-up operation. Instead of permanently disposing of it, authorities sent the sand for treatment before returning it to the same beach once tests showed it was free from oil derivatives. The treatment process took around three months and was capable of processing about five tonnes of sand every hour. The technology uses oxidisers and catalysts that react with oil and other organic pollutants in the sand. During treatment, the pollutants are broken down into simpler substances, including water, oxygen and sodium carbonate. Officials said the process does not require toxic solvents and avoids burning the contaminated material. After laboratory testing confirmed the treated sand was free from oil derivatives, around 135 tonnes were transported back to Awqad Beach. Rather than replacing the contaminated sand with new material, the project aimed to restore the original sand and return it to the coastline. Oman's Environment Authority said the treated sand was used to rehabilitate an affected stretch of beach covering around two kilometres. Returning the original material also helps preserve the natural characteristics of the beach and supports efforts to reduce coastal erosion and restore the surrounding environment. Oil pollution affected parts of Dhofar's coast in 2025, including areas between Khor Salalah and Awqad Beach, as well as parts of Raysut Beach. Authorities surveyed the affected coastline and carried out clean-up operations before contaminated sand and other material were removed for treatment. The response involved several government and environmental bodies, including the Environment Authority and Dhofar Municipality. Officials described the operation as the first experience of its kind in Oman and Dhofar involving the removal, treatment and return of oil-contaminated beach sand. The project was carried out using specialised technology designed to treat contaminated soil and sand. Instead of ending with tonnes of polluted sand being discarded, the operation brought much of it back to where it came from. After months of treatment, 135 tonnes of sand are now back on Awqad Beach.

Help! – With Refining Capacity to Spare, China Could Help Ease Global Gasoline, Diesel Crunch It’s no secret that rising prices this year for refined products (especially gasoline and diesel) have drawn scorn from consumers, businesses and politicians alike. But while no obvious remedy appears likely in the very near term, that doesn’t mean the market is stuck indefinitely, as some major refiners, especially China, still have the capacity to boost output and exports. In today’s RBN blog, we look at how China could help stabilize the refined products market. China could play a major role in restoring market balance, but let’s look at how we got here before we dive into those details. As we noted in Basket Case, the U.S.-Iran conflict has created one of the most significant supply disruptions to global petroleum markets in decades, with much of the market attention focused on crude oil and the loss of flows through the Strait of Hormuz. As we discussed in Stuck in a (Gulf) You Can’t Get Out Of, the volume of products flowing out of the strait has plummeted since the start of the war. After averaging an aggregate 3.3 MMb/d in January and February (sum of stacked areas in Figure 1 below), they cratered in the following months, dropping to as little as 100 Mb/d in April (dashed blue circle) as the three-month moving average (dashed red line) plunged. We estimate that regional refinery runs are down by about 2.5 MMb/d vs. pre-war levels, with two-thirds of that due to physical damage from war-related attacks. Total global refinery runs fell by roughly 5.1 MMb/d year over year in Q2 2026, with declines in Asia caused by the loss of Hormuz-constrained crude flows. It’s important to note that Middle Eastern refineries don’t simply produce crude-derived products for their domestic markets; they are also important suppliers of refined products to the global market. The strait’s effective closure has moved the market from a relatively balanced (though fairly tight) system to a very short market, resulting in an aggressive bidding process for the marginal barrel. Even as some (however inconsistent) progress is being made to reopen the strait, recent Houthi rebel advances in Yemen and attacks on the Saudi East-West pipeline threaten to disrupt movements through the Red Sea, a key alternate route. (Note: The East-West pipeline was shut for 11 days as a result of the attacks. It has since reopened but will likely remain constrained for several weeks due to ongoing repair work.)The continuing Russia-Ukraine war has compounded the issue. Russia, typically the second-largest exporter of diesel after the U.S., has seen accelerating levels and effectiveness of Ukrainian attacks against its refineries over the past few months. This has resulted in estimated Russian refinery throughput falling below 4 MMb/d over the past two months (and operating at less than 60% of capacity), its lowest level in more than 20 years. With diesel production down by close to 30%, diesel exports have been totally shut and gasoline imports are needed to meet domestic demand.It’s also important to note that U.S. refiners have little to no spare capacity to boost production. As discussed in our weekly Crude Oil Billboard report, Energy Information Administration (EIA) data show Q2 2026 runs at their highest level since 2019. Distillate exports averaged 1.56 MMb/d, 30% above the five-year average, in the quarter, an indication that foreign buyers are pushing harder on a system that is already near its limit. U.S. refiners ran at 96.8% of capacity during the week ended September 11 and have been above 95% every week since exiting the spring turnaround season in May.So, if U.S. refining capacity is near its limit and the disruptions in the Middle East and Russia continue, where could relief come from? China is one potential alternative, largely because its refineries operate in a way that is unique in the global market. While refiners in the U.S. (and most everywhere else) make decisions on production rates, imports and exports based on what’s best for them individually, that’s not the case in China, where refiners operate within a very specific set of government controls. For starters, China’s massive refining sector operates at the intersection of market economics and government policy, giving Beijing considerable influence over how much crude refiners process and how much gasoline, diesel and jet fuel leave the country. The government does not dictate every refinery’s operating rate, but it controls several key levers that affect refinery economics.  Crude-import quotas are one measure China uses to maintain market control. Independent “teapot” refiners generally need government authorization to import crude, allowing Beijing to influence both the volume of crude entering the country and which refiners can access it. State-owned companies such as Sinopec, PetroChina and CNOOC are subject to fewer of these constraints but remain closely aligned with broader government priorities, particularly energy security and domestic supply.Refined product exports are another powerful tool. Beijing allocates export quotas for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, effectively determining how much surplus production can be placed into international markets. When quotas are tight, refiners have less incentive to run at high rates because their ability to export excess product is constrained. Larger export allowances can have the opposite effect, allowing refiners to capture overseas margins and supporting higher utilization.Figure 2 below shows how those policies have affected refined product exports since 2015. Net exports (blue line) have varied significantly over the past decade, peaking at about 1.6 MMb/d before the pandemic, then crashing with the rest of the global market. But instead of a major rebound in the post-pandemic boom, China has limited refinery utilization to about 80% since then. More recently, it reduced net exports after the Hormuz closure to less than 400 Mb/d, although those cuts were relaxed in July and volumes exceeded 1 MMb/d in August, indicating it could export more if it chose to do so.Domestic fuel prices also remain subject to government influence, meaning refiners do not always respond solely to international crude and product prices. During supply disruptions, Beijing can put energy security and domestic availability ahead of refinery margins. But private refiners still respond to crude costs, product margins and local market conditions, and they can cut runs when economics deteriorate. Refiners also retain considerable discretion over which crude grades they buy and from which suppliers.All of that means that China has the potential to significantly expand its refined product exports if it chooses to do so, and a doubling of its August rate would only require total system utilization to increase to very achievable levels in the mid-80s% (from the sub-80% level currently). This would take net export volumes past their pre-pandemic highs to 2 MMb/d or more. It should be noted that China has been significantly expanding its refining capacity over the past three decades and while this expansion program has greatly slowed down there are still some more additions in the pipeline. As a result, with domestic demand flattening out, China will continue to maintain high levels of surplus refining capacity.First up of these expansions, as detailed in our recently published Future of Fuels report, is a 300-Mb/d grassroots refinery and petrochemical complex in northeast China being constructed by the Huajin Aramco Petrochemical Co. (HAPCO) joint venture (JV) that includes Norinco (51%), Saudi Aramco (30%) and Panjin Xincheng Industrial Group (19%). The refinery is in the final stages of construction (which began in 2023) and the official startup has recently been pushed back to Q4 2026. We expect it will be pushed back a bit beyond that, with a phased startup beginning in H1 2027, with full operation not expected until early 2028. Although it won’t help alleviate the current market tightness, we should note that a new grassroots refinery was also added to the Probable List of projects in our latest report. A JV that includes Fujian Petrochemical (50%), Sinopec (25%) and Saudi Aramco (25%) plans to build a 320-Mb/d integrated refining and petrochemical complex in Fujian province in southeastern China. (Fujian Petrochemical is a JV between Sinopec and the Fujian government.) While we’ve accepted the official startup timeline of 2030, it could slip into the early 2030s. As with most recent Chinese projects, both refineries are integrated with petrochemical plants, with production focused on petrochemicals and a secondary focus on middle distillates.Several Chinese projects are also on our Watch List and could progress to our Probable List in the future. The most likely is the 200-Mb/d brownfield expansion of Sinopec’s Qilu refinery in Shandong province (although with some reconfiguration taking place at that plant, the net increase will likely only amount to 70 Mb/d if that project is completed). However, we believe any increases would be at least partially balanced by additional shutdowns of less-competitive plants, as China has a stated policy to limit total refining capacity to meet carbon-peaking goals and also due to stagnating domestic demand.China’s refining sector won’t single-handedly solve the global refined-products squeeze, but it represents one of the few meaningful potential sources of additional supply available to the market in the short term. Beijing’s control over crude imports, refinery operations and, most importantly, export quotas gives it the ability to influence how much product reaches international buyers. With Middle Eastern and Russian supply still constrained and U.S. refiners running near full tilt, even a modest increase in Chinese exports could take some pressure off global balances. The question is not whether China has the barrels, but whether Beijing decides it wants to supply them to meet global market needs. With President Trump scheduled for a state meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday in Washington, the topic certainly could come up. While refined product exports are unlikely to be a headline Trump-Xi negotiating item, they could be part of a broader discussion about global fuel availability and energy-market stabilization, topics of mutual interest to the U.S. and China.

China Halts October Fuel Exports as Global Diesel Crunch Deepens  -China’s major refiners have suspended most refined fuel exports for October as Beijing prioritizes domestic supply security, removing another source of diesel, gasoline and jet fuel from an already severely constrained global market.PetroChina has cancelled several gasoline and jet fuel cargoes scheduled for October, while Zhejiang Petrochemical did not schedule exports during China’s week-long National Day holiday, Reuters reported, citing four people familiar with the matter. Beijing has yet to authorize October exports outside Hong Kong and Macau, although shipments could resume after the holiday ends on October 7 depending on domestic inventories and refinery output.The move follows a sharp deterioration in China’s own fuel-stock position. Kpler estimates commercial diesel and gasoil inventories are around 20 million barrels below pre-war levels, while gasoline stocks are roughly 9 million barrels short of the threshold Beijing wants restored before allowing exports to normalize.China had significantly increased exports during the summer. Official customs data showed total oil-product exports reached 6.01 million tonnes in August, up 12.7% year-on-year and the highest since March 2024, according to S&P Global. At the time, Chinese refiners said Beijing had not yet restricted clean-product exports despite tightening domestic supply.The reversal comes as global diesel supplies are already being squeezed by Middle Eastern disruptions and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries. S&P Global warned this week that Asian fuel markets have limited surplus supply, meaning any further restriction on U.S. diesel exports would increase ompetition for Asian and Middle Eastern barrels.China’s own government has meanwhile intervened to limit the domestic impact of high international oil prices, partially suppressing scheduled gasoline and diesel price increases in September while instructing refiners to ensure stable supplies.

One of Europe's largest onshore oil fields has restarted production - Many people will know the Groningen gas field, the discovery of which triggered offshore exploration in the wider North Sea in the 1960’s. It is also well-known that the Groningen gas field was permanently shut in a few years ago, following decades of induced seismic events. But a little further south from Groningen is the Schoonebeek oil field, which ranks amongst the largest oil fields onshore Europe. As is the case with Groningen, Schoonebeek did not produce hydrocarbons for the last few years too, but last month, oil production was restarted from the Lower Cretaceous Bentheim sandstone reservoir. Operator NAM had to suspend operations in 2021 due to production water issues. As the heavy oil from Schoonebeek comes with a high water-cut of around 90% or higher, the separated water was re-injected in three abandoned gas fields in the Twente area south of Schoonebeek, using an existing 70 km long pipeline to transport the fluids. However, this led to microbially-induced corrosion and the risk of leakage. This was subsequently remediated through the fitting of flexible pipes into the existing pipelines, ensuring minimal disruption and allowing quick resumption of operations. Map – Location of the Schoonebeek oil field, and the Schoonebeek gas field situated below it. Produced water from the oil field is now injected into the Schoonebeek gas field, where it used to be piped to a cluster of abandoned gas fields to the south before problems arose in 2022. The pipeline used for that operation is also shown on the map. Cross-section – demostrating the shallow nature of the Schoonebeek oil field in comparison to the gas field. Source: Aanvraag Instemming Gewijzigd Winningsplan Schoonebeek Gas (NAM, 2023). Production profile – showing the Schoonebeek oil production from the start of the steam-assisted project in 2011. Before that, around 250 million barrels were produced from the field already (1947-1996). However, a downhole rupture in the outer casing wall of one of the Twente injection wells was subsequently found. Even though it did not lead to fluid leakage, NAM was accused of not picking this up in a timely manner. This triggered an outcry of public anger in the Twente area, which ultimately led NAM to stop water injection in August 2021. This also meant that the production of oil from the Dutch part of this major oil field came to a stop. In the German part of the field (Emlichheim), where a more conventional way of production using nodding donkeys take place, production has continued all the while. But a solution has now been found, and this solution does not require a long route of water transport anymore. The produced water is injected into the Permian Zechstein gas reservoir beneath the Cretaceous reservoir from which the oil is being produced. It makes you wonder why that solution wasn’t selected straight away. And while water injection into the gas field is taking place, a limited amount of gas production will continue (0.9 Bcf/year), possibly aided by the increased water injection from the oil field above.

Why is oil price rising? Brent jumps 2.5% after Trump rejects Iran peace proposal Hindustan Times - Brent crude oil prices jumped more than 2% on Monday after US President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian peace proposal aimed at resolving the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Brent futures rose $2.60, or 2.49%, to $106.92 a barrel at 0803 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also climbed. WTI rose $2.08, or 2.25%, to $94.49 a barrel. The move came as markets reacted to uncertainty over the conflict and the future of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump's rejection of the peace proposal was a major reason for the rise in oil prices. Hamad Hussain, senior climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics, said oil prices appeared to have jumped after Trump rejected Iran's proposal, as reported by Reuters. Iran had presented the peace proposal last week at the UN General Assembly in New York. Iran said the proposal had been sent to the US through Qatari mediators as part of efforts to find a diplomatic solution to the conflict. Trump said on Saturday that he had rejected Iran's plan. However, he also said on Sunday that he expected US negotiators to hold more talks with Iran during the week. Trump made the comments in a phone interview with Axios. The Strait of Hormuz remains central to the oil market. The waterway is a major route for global oil shipments, so any disruption or uncertainty around its reopening can put upward pressure on crude prices. Oil prices are rising despite some recovery in shipments through the Strait. Hussain said higher flows through Hormuz have reduced some of the pressure on oil prices, but the broader oil market is still facing a supply deficit. That means the market is still worried about a shortage of oil. Even though more barrels are moving through Hormuz, total supply has not fully caught up with demand, keeping the oil market in deficit. Capital Economics' Hussain said, according to Reuters. There is also a wider security risk in the Middle East. Yemen's Saudi-led coalition said early Saturday that it had intercepted two ballistic missiles and two drones launched by Iran-backed Houthis toward Saudi Arabia. At the same time, Middle East oil exports have started recovering. Crude exports from major Middle Eastern producers reached 12.8 million barrels per day in September, the highest level since the war began in February. Preliminary Kpler data cited by Reuters showed this. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates helped drive the increase in exports. Their higher shipments pushed regional oil exports higher in September even as the conflict continued. Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz also recovered. Shipments through the waterway were expected to reach about 7.4 million barrels per day in September, according to the preliminary Kpler data. Saudi Arabia also changed its export route after attacks damaged its East-West pipeline. The country diverted some oil exports from the Red Sea port of Yanbu to its eastern Ras Tanura port. The oil market has also been dealing with uncertainty over US diesel exports. Brent gained only 0.4% last week, while WTI fell more than 7%, partly because investors were worried that the US could ban diesel exports to bring down record-high domestic diesel prices. A US diesel export ban could also affect US oil production. Markets are concerned that limiting diesel exports could reduce refinery operations in the US, which could then affect demand for crude oil. Diesel prices in Europe have also surged. The premium of European low-sulphur gasoil over Brent crude futures reached a record of about $95 a barrel last week, showing how tight the global diesel market has become. The diesel shortage has been linked to a wider global supply problem. Prices have reached record levels, and Trump's support for a possible US diesel export ban has added another layer of uncertainty to the market. Goldman Sachs warned that a US diesel export restriction could affect markets far beyond America. Europe and Latin America, especially Brazil and Mexico, are major destinations for US diesel exports, according to Reuters. A US diesel shortage could push other countries to compete for available fuel. Goldman Sachs said Europe and Latin America could start buying more diesel from other suppliers, including countries such as India, which could spread the supply shock to Asia. Goldman Sachs estimated that the impact could increase European diesel prices quickly. The bank estimated that each week of a US diesel export ban could raise European wholesale diesel prices by about $3 a barrel, or just under 2%. So, the latest Brent price rise is being driven by several risks at the same time: Trump's rejection of Iran's peace proposal, uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz, the continuing Middle East conflict, a global oil-market deficit and tight diesel supplies. For now, the key question for oil markets is whether US-Iran talks can reduce the conflict and keep oil flowing normally through Hormuz. Trump has rejected Iran's current proposal but has also indicated that US negotiators could hold more talks this week.

Oil Prices Jump as Trump Rejects Iran's Hormuz Offer, With Brent Near $107 and WTI Near $95 a Barrel --Oil prices rose sharply on Monday after President Donald Trump rejected Iran's conditional offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, reviving fears that supply through the world's most important oil chokepoint will stay disrupted. International benchmark Brent crude traded near $107 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate near $95, both in U.S. dollars, though prices moved through the morning. Brent futures for November delivery were 2.7% higher at $107.11 a barrel at 8:32 a.m. Eastern time, paring gains after climbing as high as $108.83 earlier in the session, CNBC reported. WTI futures for November were 3% higher at $95.20. Later in the morning, CNBC's market blog showed Brent up more than 2% at $106.79 and WTI up about 2% at $94.40. In early Asian trading, Brent had gained as much as 2.89% to $107.34 and WTI had risen 1.87% to $94.14, according to CNBC. The move reversed part of Friday's decline. Oil fell more than 2% on Friday after reports that the two sides were exploring a phased arrangement, and it rebounded at the start of the week, Euronews reported. Trading Economics data showed Brent up about 18% over the past month and about 59% higher than a year ago, while WTI was up about 9.7% over the month and about 48% higher year on year. Brent remains well below its April peak, when it reached a four-year high of $126, according to a chronology of the year's oil market on Wikipedia. The trigger was Trump's rejection of a seven-day proposal from Tehran. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi presented the offer on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in New York. "If certain conditions are met, the Strait of Hormuz will be open at the end of seven days, and talks will be restarted," Araghchi told reporters. According to Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei, the conditions include an end to what Tehran describes as U.S. "acts of aggression," the lifting of the naval blockade and economic warfare, and the release of Iranian assets. Trump confirmed that he had turned the offer down. "They made a proposal but I rejected it," he told reporters, CNBC reported. The Wall Street Journal reported Saturday, citing unnamed U.S. officials, that Trump told aides he expects U.S. strikes on Iran to resume after November's midterm elections. Trump also told Axios on Sunday that Iran has overplayed its hand and that Tehran's conditions are something Washington might have agreed to about a year ago, Bloomberg reported. He said he expects negotiations to resume this week. Iran said it is waiting for a definitive U.S. response and will not ease its conditions, according to Trading Economics.   Analysts said markets were pricing in a longer standoff. Energy market participants are seeing a "clear and present danger" of a return to U.S.-Iran hostilities after the midterm elections, Cornelia Meyer, chief executive of Meyer Resources, told CNBC. Trump said earlier this month that he expected the conflict, which began with U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran on February 28, to conclude soon after the midterms, with oil prices subsequently declining, CNBC noted. On Friday, before the rejection, David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, said traders saw room for a sharp oil pullback if a phased deal landed but that there were "still plenty of obstacles to overcome first." . Before the strikes on Iran, roughly one-fifth of global oil supplies flowed through the waterway, which links the Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, according to Al Jazeera. Commercial shipping has declined drastically since the war began amid attacks on vessels in the Gulf, most of which have been blamed on Iran or allied groups. Vessels made 132 transits of the strait from September 21 to 27, up from 116 the previous week, according to the maritime intelligence platform MarineTraffic.  Euronews said shipping risks have also grown in the Red Sea after the Houthis seized Yemen's coastline, including territory near the Bab al-Mandab Strait. Other factors are adding to volatility. Trading Economics said oil markets have been unsettled by mixed signals over peace prospects, signs of recovering Middle East energy flows, and speculation that the United States could restrict diesel exports. Previous negotiations have repeatedly appeared close to a breakthrough before collapsing, the outlet noted, which has kept traders cautious. Higher crude pushed up inflation worries and rippled through other markets. In the United States, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down about 0.6% in early trading and the 10-year Treasury yield traded above 5.2%, according to CNBC. In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 was about 0.5% lower in early trading, Euronews reported. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 and South Korea's Kospi fell 0.73% and 2.70%, respectively, according to Al Jazeera. For consumers and businesses, the stakes are largely about fuel costs. Higher crude prices tend to feed into gasoline, diesel and jet fuel costs, and traders are watching whether the rise in oil adds to price pressures at a time when interest-rate expectations are already sensitive. The article notes that these are futures prices, which move constantly and may differ from what motorists pay at the pump. The next moves depend on diplomacy. Trump has said talks could resume this week, Iran has said its conditions stand, and the market has shown it will react to each shift in tone, with prices dropping when a deal seems possible and jumping when it recedes. Investors are also watching shipping data for signs of whether flows through Hormuz keep recovering.

Oil Market Swings as U.S.-Iran Peace Talks Remain Stalled - The oil market on Monday erased its early gains but remained within last Thursday’s trading range amid the stalemate in U.S.-Iran peace talks. On Saturday, U.S. President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian peace proposal announced last week at the UN General Assembly. However, he said that U.S. negotiators were expected to engage in more talks this week. The crude market held support at its previous lows and extended its gains to $4.13 as it traded to a high of $96.54 early in the morning. The market later erased its gains and extended its losses to $1.16 as it posted a low of $91.25. It retraced some of its losses and settled in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session. The November WTI contract settled up 19 cents at $92.60 and the November Brent contract settled up 96 cents at $105.78. The product markets ended the session in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling up 7.06 cents at $4.7553 and the RB market settling down 5.57 cents at $3.3377. According to data from the Department of Energy, stocks of crude oil in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 283.8 million barrels last week, the lowest level since October 1982. According to sources, the White House is considering regulatory relief that would allow broader sales of red-dyed diesel as part of an effort to bring down prices, a move that could allow some buyers to avoid the federal fuel tax. The red-dye proposal has emerged from days of administration deliberations as one of the leading alternatives to a diesel export ban, which has been discussed as global supply disruptions drive prices to record levels. President Donald Trump has supported a ban, but that has faced widespread opposition from the oil industry and other parts of the business community. The administration has also been seeking voluntary commitments from major refiners to limit diesel exports. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has contacted executives at several major refiners to gauge their willingness to engage in such an action. A White House official said no final decisions have been made, but the president is weighing all options to lower prices. Kpler data showed that crude oil exports from key Middle East producers rebounded in September to 12.8 million bpd, the highest level since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran started in February, as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates increased their exports. The rebound came following a recovery in exports via the Strait of Hormuz, which were set to hit about 7.4 million bpd this month, as Saudi Arabia diverted oil exports from the Red Sea port of Yanbu following attacks that damaged its East-West Pipeline. According to Kpler, while exports from the region have rebounded, they were still about 6 million bpd down from 18.8 million bpd in February. The region’s top exporter Saudi Arabia was on track to ship about 5.4 million bpd this month, rebounding from 2.446 million bpd in August. September shipments from the Ras Tanura port in the Gulf increased to about 3.6 million bpd from 929,000 bpd in August, but still lower than the 6.411 million bpd recorded in February. A total of 19 very large crude carriers, carrying 2 million barrels of Saudi oil each, exited the Strait of Hormuz last week. IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 542,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending October 2nd, increasing available refining capacity by 289,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to increase to 622,000 bpd in the week ending October 9th.

Oil prices climb again as Middle East supply risks persist - Global oil prices rose for a second consecutive session on Tuesday (September 29) as the prolonged US-Iran conflict raised fresh concerns over disruptions to crude supplies from the Middle East. Brent crude futures climbed $1.49, or 1.4 per cent, to $106.77 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained $1.34, or 1.5 per cent, to $93.94. Both benchmarks had risen by about $1 in the previous session. Despite a recovery in regional exports, traders remain concerned about the cost and reliability of alternative shipping routes. KCM Trade chief market analyst Tim Waterer said increased exports from the Gulf were being facilitated partly through costly and slower ship-to-ship transfers, keeping upward pressure on prices. Data from commodities intelligence firm Kpler showed crude exports from major Middle Eastern producers rose to 12.8 million barrels per day in September, their highest level since February, driven mainly by higher shipments from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. However, the figure remains about 6 million bpd below February levels of 18.8 million bpd. Meanwhile, Washington and Tehran have renewed diplomatic efforts to end the seven-month conflict, with officials from both sides holding indirect discussions through mediators. Talks could focus on a revised version of a seven-day ceasefire proposal put forward by Iran last week on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. Analysts at UOB, however, said uncertainty remained high, warning that the prolonged US-Iran confrontation and the situation around the Strait of Hormuz could continue to fuel inflation and threaten global oil supplies.

Oil Softens after Red Sea Export Restart Eases Supply Woes -- Oil prices softened Tuesday morning as signs of higher Middle Eastern oil supply outweighed concerns over stalling U.S.-Iranian negotiations. By 08:50am EDT, ICE Brent for November delivery was down $2.17 to trade near $103.11 bbl, and NYMEX WTI for November delivery fell $2.21 to $90.39 bbl. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD for October delivery slid $0.0853 to $4.67 gallon, and front-month RBOB futures retreated $0.0517 to $3.286 gallon. The U.S. dollar index strengthened by 0.16 points to 101.085 against a basket of foreign currencies. Saudi Aramco last week partially restored flows on its East-West pipeline, allowing exports from the Red Sea port of Yanbu to resume after a two-week hiatus. In combination with oil shuttling operations in the Gulf of Oman running near maximum capacity, and an increasingly porous Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Middle Eastern oil exports have rebounded to their highest since the start of the war in late February. Ship-tracking experts estimate flows to now average around two thirds of pre-war levels. U.S. and Iranian diplomats, meanwhile, continued the indirect exchange of messages via mediators after the White House on the weekend rejected Tehran's offer of a temporary ceasefire and a mutual lifting of naval blockades akin to June's so-called memorandum of understanding. While market participants welcomed the resumption of diplomatic efforts, reports suggested that negotiations have so far yielded little progress. Oil futures remained well on track for a third consecutive monthly increase. Supply, particularly of refined products, continued to fall short of meeting demand, as evidenced by globally rescinding inventories. In the U.S., distillate fuel oil inventories continued to hover near seasonal decade-lows, trailing the five-year average by 12%, according to the most recent Energy Information Administration (EIA) data. Weekly inventory estimates from the American Petroleum Institute are scheduled for release later today, followed by official EIA data on Wednesday.

Oil Prices Fall as Saudi Arabia Resumes Red Sea Exports - The oil market traded lower on Tuesday on signs of recovering crude exports from the Middle East, with the restart of the East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia and the resumption of Red Sea oil exports. Trade sources stated that Saudi Arabia resumed oil loadings from its Red Sea port of Yanbu after restarting operations on the East-West Pipeline. In overnight trading, the oil market retraced some of Monday’s losses as it traded to a high of $94.74 after U.S. President Donald Trump said he has offered Iran nothing to end the war, rejecting media reports stating that he was willing to ease sanctions and release frozen funds for concrete steps regarding Iran’s nuclear program. However, the market erased any of its gains and sold off on the resumption of Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea oil exports. The crude market extended its losses to almost $3.54 as it sold off to a low of $89.06 ahead of the close. The November WTI contract settled down $3.22 at $89.38 and the November Brent contract settled down $2.69 at $102.89. The product markets ended the session in mixed territory once again, with the heating oil market settling up 14.26 cents at $4.8979 and the RB market settling down 5.95 cents at $3.2782. The Trump administration said it is offering to loan energy companies 40 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, in an effort to control increasing fuel prices that have rallied on the widening war with Iran and Russia’s war on Ukraine. The White House has urged the European Union to draw down emergency diesel inventories in an effort to lower global prices, as President Donald Trump and his administration pursue a range of options to ease fuel costs ahead of November’s midterm elections. According to sources, the White House is frustrated that some European countries have not lived up to commitments made earlier this year to tap their emergency oil and petroleum reserves to help address supply disruptions and price spikes stemming from the Iran conflict and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, said no country in the region would be able to export oil if the Islamic Republic was prevented from selling its own oil. He said no regional infrastructure would be safe if Iran had no security. IEA head, Fatih Birol, said the IEA’s member states may discuss whether more strategic oil reserves could be released on the market in the future. He said “We are following the markets very closely, especially the product markets, diesel and others. If there is a need, of course, we will discuss with our member governments to take the necessary steps.” Valero Energy Corp reported flaring at its 85,000 bpd Wilmington, California refinery due to unplanned maintenance. BP Plc said it is proposing a six year contract term that would provide stability for the Whiting refinery and employees. It is proposing an extended notice period before the union can strike or before the company can initiate a lockout. BP said it will continue to meet with USW-71 representatives to find common ground as negotiations progress.

Oil Prices Climb as Trump Rules Out Easing Iran Sanctions | OilPrice.com -- Crude oil prices ticked higher today, after dipping on Tuesday, following reports that President Trump has no intention of easing sanction pressure on Iran, which has decimated exports from one of OPEC’s biggest producers. At 12;37 AM CDT, Brent crude was trading at $103.13 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate was trading at $89.53, both set to end the month with a gain. For Brent, the gain is more pronounced, at around $10 per barrel, while for WTI, the gain would be about $3 per barrel. Earlier in the week, prices dipped slightly on the news that oil flows from the Persian Gulf have recovered to a level close to pre-war daily averages but there appear to be doubts about whether the recovery is sustainable. “Continued uncertainty over sanctions relief and negotiations is keeping a geopolitical risk premium embedded in prices,” analyst Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of India-based SS WealthStreet said, as quoted by Reuters. “Improving supplies could cap further gains, but renewed disruption or an escalation in tensions could ‌trigger another rally,” Sachdeva added. Data from Kpler has suggested oil exports from the Persian Gulf have rebounded strongly this month, with Hormuz flows alone at 13.2 million barrels daily, or 77% of pre-war levels, CNBC reported this week. An earlier report by Reuters citing Kpler data as well, pegged Hormuz flows specifically at 7.4 million barrels daily, with total Middle East oil export rates at 12.8 million barrels daily. “Despite more vessel traffic through the Strait of ‌Hormuz, flows remain below pre-conflict levels, keeping the market undersupplied,” UBS’ commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo said, as quoted by the publication. It could be this shortfall that is keeping oil prices elevated, in addition to the still present risk for tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, in spite of the export recovery

Oil Hits Session High After DOE Shows Lowest Midwest Gasoline Stocks On Record -Oil prices rose to session highs after today's DOE inventory data refuted the latest cheerful API prints from Tuesday afternoon. Instead of the API-reported builds in distillates and gasoline, the DOE said that in the last week both products drew, with a modest increase in Cushing inventories, while crude inventories rose by 922K. API:

•     Crude +1.0mm
•     Gasoline +3.0mm
•     Distillates +0.3mm
•     Cushing +0.2mm

DOE:

•     Crude +0.922mm
•     Gasoline -1.684mm
•     Distillates -2.251k
•     Cushing +553mm

As Bloomberg notes, that’s a large draw of distillate fuels at 2.25 million barrels, well below the 300,000 barrels increase API saw. The October diesel contract is expiring today, so price action is a little murky, but the most-active contract is holding pretty strong gains near $4.75 a gallon. Cushing stocks saw another bounce off 'tank bottoms' even as crude inventories saw a modest increase, while product stocks both saw modest draws... Here' a look at some more of the data:

• PADD 1B gasoline -1,422k
• PADD 1 Distillates -254k
• PADD 3 crude +3,417k
• Refinery utilization -1.5ppt vs est. -0.3ppt
• Refinery crude inputs -554k b/d
• Crude imports -179k b/d
• Crude production +16k b/d

The 922,000 barrel build in commercial crude stockpiles was close to the 1 million barrel increase seen by the API on Tuesday. It compares with a Bloomberg survey of analysts that saw the stockpile shrinking by 710,000 barrels and Bloomberg users’ expectations just before the data were released of a 1 million barrel build. Stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, rose to the highest since May. At 24 million barrels, inventories are inching further away from the 20-million mark generally seen as the minimum operating level for the storage hub. It’s the second straight week of builds at Cushing. Meanwhile, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve declined by another 785K barrels; SPR stockpiles will continue to draw further throughout the end of the year after the energy department re-offered 40 million barrels of sour oil in a tender. The oil was offered as part of the exchange program, and must be returned in kind between 2027 and 2029. It’s to be seen if the government will be able to attract interest from traders and refiners. The minimum premium has fallen to 7% to 9.5%, compared with as much as 22% earlier this year. A total of 132 million barrels of crude has been taken out of the SPR since late March under a program to release 172 million barrels as part of a relief plan coordinated by the International Energy Agency aimed at lowering energy costs. That means that the build in commercial crude stockpiles was mostly offset by another 785,000 barrels withdrawn from the SPR. That reduced the overall nationwide crude build to just 137,000 barrels in the week to Sep 25. Taking a closer look, we find that gasoline stocks in the US Midwest are at the lowest level on record. Overall, the US has the least gasoline on hand since November 2014, with stockpiles falling by 1.68 million barrels. On a seasonal basis, PADD2 (Midwest) gasoline has also never been lower. Distillate fuel stockpiles in the US also remain at their lowest seasonal levels on record. Stockpiles fell in every single region. Exports, meanwhile, rebounded to 1.5 million barrels a day. While discussion of a US diesel export ban has died down a bit, it hasn’t faded entirely, and a number like this might revitalize some of those conversations. Linked to that, there was another big drop is US crude processing by refineries. Over the past three weeks, crude consumptions fell by 1.3 million barrels a day. That’s the lowest since May. Rates fell in all regions, with the exception of the Rockies Imports of Brazilian oil rose to the highest level since November 2024 and the highest level ever for this time of year, with the US importing nearly 500,000 barrels each day last week. While it’s unclear what’s driving the move, one explanation could be that strong American refinery runs are supporting demand for nearby foreign crudes while, at the same time, less Brazilian oil heads to Asia. At the same time, imports from Canada rose for the second time in three weeks. Shipments from the country remain fairly low at 3.4 million barrels a day, but there was an uptick nonetheless. PADD 2 takes the most Canadian crude out of any region, so the build in Cushing was likely at least partially due to shipments from the North. Bloomberg offers another take on falling refining crude processing: Canadian crude delivered via pipeline to both the US Gulf Coast and the Patoka hub are at a contango, a sign of weak demand. On the flip side, WTI at Houston is still in a backwardated structure. That can be partly explained by the light-heavy differential, that currently favors the use of light crude over heavy crudes from places like Canada and Venezuela. WTI futures jumped a few cents higher to session high in a knee-jerk reaction to the report. EIA data showed a relatively unexciting US crude stockpile build of roughly 900,000 barrels, but the markets focus is elsewhere this week - namely, diesel.

Oil Prices Rebound Amid Stalemate in U.S.-Iran Peace Talks - - The oil market on Wednesday retraced its previous losses and ended the session higher amid the continuing stalemate in U.S.-Iran peace talks. On Tuesday, U.S. President denied reports by Axios and CNN that cited U.S. officials as saying he was willing to give Iran sanctions relief and release frozen Iranian funds in return for steps by Iran on its nuclear program. Meanwhile, Qatar said it hoped that shuttle diplomacy between Iran and the U.S. could lead to a breakthrough. The oil market posted a low of $88.58 on the opening on Tuesday evening before it began to retrace its previous losses. The market extended its gains to over $2.50 as it posted a high of $91.96 by mid-day. The crude market later gave up some of its gains and settled in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session. The November WTI contract ended the session up $1.04 at $90.42 and the November Brent contract settled up 94 cents at $103.53. The product markets ended the session higher, with the October heating oil contracts going off the board up 5.90 cents at $4.9569 and the October RB contract settling up 15.96 cents at $3.4378. Analysts have raised their 2026 oil price forecasts with benchmark Brent crude expected to average nearly $90/barrel as disruption to Gulf exports offsets concerns over demand growth. A September survey of 30 economists and analysts forecast that Brent crude would average $89.05/barrel in 2026, up from a previous forecast of $85.08/barrel and U.S. crude would average $83.90/barrel, up from a previous estimate of $80.20/barrel. The EIA reported that U.S. crude oil production in July increased 104,000 bpd to 13.948 million bpd. U.S. crude oil exports fell to 3.556 million bpd in July, down from 4.735 million bpd in June. U.S. total oil demand in July fell by 2.7% or 580,000 bpd to 20.612 million bpd. The EIA reported that gasoline demand in July fell by 2.5% or 231,000 bpd on the year to 8.946 million bpd, while distillate demand fell by 3.8% or 146,000 bpd to 3.685 million bpd. The Dallas Fed said oil and gas production in Texas, Louisiana and New Mexico increased in the third quarter of 2026. Oil and gas activity also expanded in those states over that same time period. On average, respondents expect a WTI oil price of $88/barrel in a wide range of $70 to $126, and a Henry Hub natural gas price of $3.29 per million British thermal units at year-end 2026. Sources stated that OPEC+ oil-producing countries are likely to keep their oil production targets steady for November when they meet on Sunday. The sources said no final decision had been made. A separate OPEC+ ministerial group called the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, which does not decide policy, also meets on Sunday to review the market. IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 545,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending October 2nd, increasing available refining capacity by 298,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to increase to 668,000 bpd in the week ending October 9th.

Oil prices jump 2% as China halts fuel exports amid US-Iran war: Brent crude tops $100 - Oil prices moved sharply during Thursday's trading session. Prices initially fell by more than 1% before recovering and rising. The reversal came as traders assessed China's export restrictions, global fuel shortages and developments in the US-Iran conflict. Chinese refiners have been told to stop exporting oil products to regions outside Hong Kong and Macau until further notice. Four people familiar with the matter confirmed the development to Reuters on Thursday. The export restrictions could put further pressure on global fuel supplies. Markets are already facing supply constraints linked to the war and disruptions to refining operations. China's decision could reduce the amount of fuel available to buyers in international markets. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said the export restrictions suggest that China is worried about the domestic availability of oil products. He added that it remains unclear whether the measures will lead China to increase crude oil imports after recent declines in its crude oil and fuel inventories, Reuters reported. Global diesel supplies have also tightened. Refining capacity has fallen following attacks linked to the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine. These disruptions have increased pressure on governments to take action to protect consumers from rising fuel costs. The Trump administration has urged Germany and France to use emergency diesel stocks. The United States has asked both countries to draw down their emergency diesel inventories to help ease global fuel prices. Three people familiar with the discussions told Reuters that the countries could face a potential US diesel export ban if they do not comply. European diesel refinery profit margins stood at around $80.05 per barrel at 8:29 GMT on Thursday, down approximately 4% from the previous session. The margins had reached an all-time high of $95 per barrel on September 23. Investors are closely tracking diplomatic efforts to end the US-Iran war. Alongside China's export restrictions and global fuel shortages, traders are monitoring developments in the Middle East to assess whether oil supplies could recover or face further disruption. Saudi Arabia has resumed loading oil tankers at Yanbu. The development followed the earlier restart of operations on the country's East-West Pipeline, which provides an alternative route for transporting crude oil towards the Red Sea. Reuters reported the resumption of tanker loadings on Tuesday.

Oil Steadies as Traders Assess Higher Flows, Export Bans -- Oil and product futures were mixed in a volatile morning session Thursday, with crude benchmarks advancing 1.5-2%, while ULSD's new front-month contract slipped following Wednesday's rally. By 9:00 a.m. EDT, ICE Brent for December delivery was up $1.77 to trade near $99.80 bbl, and NYMEX WTI for November delivery rose $0.67 to $91.09 bbl. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD for November delivery retreated $0.1234 to $4.5647 gallon, while front-month RBOB futures edged higher $0.0088 to $3.2693 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index strengthened by 0.365 points to 101.555 against a basket of foreign currencies, having reached a 10-month high 101.755 earlier in the session. A tightening global fuels market has been supporting the oil complex, outweighing resurging crude exports from the Middle East. To secure domestic supply and combat surging prices, more and more countries have been implementing, extending or at least considering refined product export bans, which added to fuel supply woes. Russia has recently extended its existing diesel export ban until the end of October, and reports on Thursday suggested that China had suspended all fuel exports for at least the first week of this month. The U.S. administration has also been floating the possibility of a temporary ban on diesel exports, downplaying industry warnings about the cascading effects on supply and prices of other refined fuels. On Thursday, Reuters reported that the Trump administration urged European Union countries to release their emergency diesel stocks or face a U.S. export ban. In May 2025, the last month for which Eurostat has provided a detailed breakdown of emergency oil and product reserves, the EU sat on around 280 million bbl of strategic diesel reserves, with more than a third of volumes situated in Germany and France. Data from September 2026 showed that total strategic reserves were still high, as European countries have generally been slow to fulfill their IEA commitment. Diesel inventories in the U.S., meanwhile, have fallen to their lowest seasonal level on record. The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday reported that nationwide stockpiles of distillate fuel oil dropped to 105.2 million bbl last week, down nearly 15% year-on-year. On the East Coast, diesel and heating oil reserves are lagging year-ago levels by close to 29%.

Oil jumps 4% on reports China halts fuel exports, US troops head to Middle East (Reuters) - Oil prices ‌jumped on Thursday and settled up more than $4 a barrel, after a report, opens new tab said the US was sending more troops and carriers to the Middle East and China suspended oil products exports, stoking fears that global fuel shortages could worsen. The new front-month December Brent crude futures contract settled at $102.31 a barrel, up 4.37% or $4.28. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures finished at $92.87 a barrel, up 2.71%, or $2.45. A Wall Street ​Journal report said the US was sending a third aircraft carrier and up to 10,000 more troops to the Middle East as President Donald Trump ​weighed resuming strikes on Iran after the US midterm elections. Trump told reporters at the White House before departing on a campaign ⁠trip that he was weighing his options on Iran. "Now I have to make a decision. They'll either sign a very fair deal, or they won't exist any ​longer," he said. The comments, coupled with China's suspension of fuel exports, contributed to a volatile trading session. Oil prices fell 1% early but reversed course after Reuters reported that Chinese refiners ​had suspended exports of oil products beyond Hong Kong and Macau until further notice, citing four people familiar with the matter. "The Chinese export ban suggests concerns about domestic product availability," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said, adding that it remains to be seen whether the measures will support higher crude imports after recent drawdowns in Chinese crude and fuel stocks. While crude supplies continue to reach ​the market, diesel and other refined products remain in short supply following damage to refinery infrastructure in the Gulf and Russia. Global diesel inventories are already tight after Russia, ​a top exporter of the fuel, banned exports through October. Industry participants said shortages were unlikely to end before next year. President Vladimir Putin said Russia will not supply diesel to global energy markets until sanctions against Moscow are lifted. "The ‌impact of ⁠China’s fuel export restrictions will not be as large as the loss of Russian and Middle Eastern refined oil product exports. However, it is another source of stress on global fuel markets when supply is severely constrained," said Hamad Hussain, senior climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics. US stocks rallied on Friday, with the Dow gaining half a percent, the S&P 500 adding about three-quarters of a percent and the Nasdaq climbing more than one percent. To mitigate pressure, the European Union's energy taskforce will meet on Friday to discuss a potential release of diesel stockpiles, two EU diplomats told Reuters on Thursday. Sources told Reuters the Trump administration told Germany and France to draw down emergency diesel inventories ​or face a potential US diesel export ​ban. In the meantime, diplomatic efforts ⁠to end the Iran war have been relatively subdued of late as attacks continue. On Tuesday, three Liberian-flagged oil tankers were struck by unknown projectiles when transiting the Strait of Hormuz, shipping intelligence service Marisks said in a Wednesday report. Iran is preparing a broader and ​more forceful response if the US resumes large-scale military attacks, sources said, while continuing a diplomatic push that Iranian officials ​privately see as unlikely ⁠to succeed. Lingering disruptions to global oil and fuel markets spurred analysts to raise their average Brent crude oil price forecasts for 2026 to $89.05 a barrel, although they noted signs of a gradual improvement in exports from the Middle East. Saudi Arabia resumed oil tanker loadings from Yanbu on Tuesday, after restarting operations on its East-West Pipeline. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs estimated Gulf oil exports, including "dark ⁠exports" involving ​ships operating with their location transponders turned off, have recovered to 23.3 million barrels per day over ​the last week, in line with their 2025 average, as exports doubled in September, it said in a note on Tuesday.

Oil prices steady above $102 amid supply concerns — Arabian Post - Oil prices were broadly steady above $102 a barrel on Friday as traders weighed China’s suspension of fuel exports and an expanding US military presence in the Middle East against signs that regional crude supplies were recovering. Brent crude slipped 3 cents, or 0.03%, to $102.28 a barrel by 0350 GMT after edging higher earlier in Asian trading. US West Texas Intermediate fell 19 cents, or 0.2%, to $92.68, reversing small early gains. The subdued moves followed a sharp rally on Thursday, when Brent settled at $102.31, up $4.28, or 4.37%, and WTI climbed $2.45, or 2.71%, to $92.87. Prices had initially fallen before concerns over refined-fuel availability and Middle East security drove a rapid reversal. China’s refiners have suspended exports of oil products for October as Beijing seeks to protect domestic inventories. Major refiners entered the week-long national holiday without approval to ship diesel, petrol and jet fuel beyond Hong Kong and Macau, leaving uncertainty over whether exports will restart after the holiday ends on October 7. PetroChina cancelled several petrol and jet-fuel cargoes scheduled for October, while Zhejiang Petrochemical did not schedule product exports during the holiday week. China’s National Development and Reform Commission had not publicly clarified whether broader shipments would be authorised later in the month. The restriction has added pressure to a refined-products market already struggling with disrupted supplies from the Middle East and Russia. Commercial gasoil and diesel inventories in China were estimated at about 20 million barrels below levels Beijing considers adequate for restoring exports, while petrol stocks were roughly 9 million barrels short, according to Kpler. Asian diesel spreads strengthened after the export suspension. China loaded an estimated 1.4 million tonnes of diesel, 500,000 tonnes of petrol and at least 2 million tonnes of jet fuel in September, including bonded volumes destined for Hong Kong and Macau, with total shipments lower than in August. Geopolitical concerns also remained prominent. The US military is dispatching roughly 9,000 sailors and Marines aboard a group of ships to the Middle East, including the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group and the USS Makin Island amphibious readiness group. Their arrival could put three US aircraft carriers in the region by late October. The deployment comes as President Donald Trump considers further military action against Iran. Trump said in an interview published on Thursday that renewed strikes after the November 3 US midterm elections were possible, while declining to disclose operational details. Two US carriers, the USS George H. W. Bush and USS George Washington, are already in the region, alongside the USS Boxer amphibious readiness group. The additional deployment could raise the US naval presence to more than 20,000 sailors and Marines, together with hundreds of aircraft. At the same time, Washington has pressed Germany and France to release emergency diesel stocks as governments seek ways to ease elevated fuel prices. The US has asked the European Union to release 120 million barrels of diesel over six months, according to people familiar with the discussions. EU countries hold nearly 109 million tonnes of emergency crude and fuel inventories. Those prospective releases, together with improving Middle Eastern crude flows, helped restrain Friday’s oil rally. KCM Trade chief analyst Tim Waterer described the market as absorbing mixed signals after Thursday’s volatility, with stronger Saudi exports offset by the additional US carrier deployment and China’s export curbs. Brent was heading for a weekly decline of about 2% despite its Thursday surge, after gaining about 14% during September. WTI, which advanced about 4% last month, was on course for a weekly rise of roughly 0.3%. Oil’s reaction also reflected the importance of the $100-a-barrel level for Brent, which analysts regard as a key psychological and positioning threshold. Priyanka Sachdeva of Phillip Nova said immediate attention remained on the availability and movement of Middle Eastern crude and refined products to consuming markets globally.

Oil prices drop as Europe agrees to release diesel reserves -  Oil prices fell $2 after European leaders agreed on Friday to a request by US President Donald Trump to release diesel from their reserves to lower prices and reduce the need to import fuel from America. Brent was down $1.80, or 1.76%, at $100.50 a barrel at 10:49 a.m. CDT (1649 GMT). West Texas Intermediate dropped $2.02, or 2.18%, to $90.85 a barrel. For the week, Brent was down about 2.84% so far with WTI around 1.54% lower. European Union countries agreed to a French proposal to release additional diesel stockpiles, a source familiar with details of the discussion told Reuters. “Europe has just agreed to release a massive amount of their heavily stocked Diesel Oil,” Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social. Previously, Trump had said he was mulling a ban on US diesel exports. “Europe is feeling pretty vulnerable,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with the Price Futures Group. “Europe would be one of the areas to suffer the most if we put an export ban on diesel.” Iran says it receives US response to latest proposal as Washington pulls out of Iraq EU governments acted after discussing the proposal by France for European countries to release 50 million barrels of diesel, and for International Energy Agency members to release 50 million barrels of crude oil, three sources familiar with the discussions told Reuters. Under the proposal, Europe would release part of the diesel volumes in a 20-day period, two of the sources said. French President Emmanuel Macron chaired a videoconference with G7 leaders on Friday, the Elysee Palace said. It was not immediately clear if G7 countries had agreed to France’s proposal on the volumes of fuel to be released. “This highlights that the main stress in the energy market is no longer crude availability, with Middle East flows recovering, but rather refined product supply, constrained by reduced refinery capacity and output across the Middle East and Russia,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. On Thursday, prices settled higher after Reuters reported that Chinese refiners had suspended oil product exports for October, looking to preserve domestic stocks. Also supporting prices, the Wall Street Journal reported that the US was sending a third aircraft carrier and up to 10,000 more troops to the Middle East as Trump weighed resuming strikes on Iran after the midterm elections. Hamad Hussain, senior climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics, said another release of oil stocks “could be enough to help tip the overall market back into a slight surplus if the recent pick-up in flows from the Middle East is sustained”. Barclays said in a note that despite better crude flows out of the Middle East, physical market fundamentals remained strong, with inventories still being drawn, and prompt cargoes commanding steep premiums over forward prices. It raised its fourth-quarter Brent forecast by $20 a barrel to $115 and lifted its 2026 forecast to $100 a barrel. Elsewhere, Ukraine has struck oil facilities in Russia’s Samara and Volgograd regions over the past 24 hours, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on social media on Friday.

Oil prices lower as G7 nations to release diesel stocks, Saudis reportedly plan attack on Houthis -- Crude oil prices edged lower Friday, after the Group of Seven nations announced the release of diesel and crude stocks to ease surging fuel prices. Brent crude futures, the international benchmark, lost 6 cents to close at $102.25 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude shed $1.76 to settle at $91.11 per barrel. The G7 will deploy 100 million barrels of reserves over the next four months “with a frontloaded substantial diesel release within the first 20 days,” the group’s leaders said in a joint statement. The G7 are France, Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States. As Western nations prepare to release more stocks, tensions are simmering in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia is planning an offensive against Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen, regional and Western officials told Reuters. Oil prices settled higher in the previous session following a report that the U.S. is sending a third aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East. The Trump administration has called on Europe to release diesel stocks as the world faces a fuel supply shortfall due to the wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Thursday that “American farmers, truckers, and businesses should not be left carrying the burden of a global diesel shortage.” U.S. President Donald Trump has indicated the U.S. could impose a diesel export ban, but he appeared to cool on the idea earlier this week due to its potential impact on gasoline prices. The U.S. supplied around half of the EU’s diesel imports in August, according to the International Energy Agency, underscoring the 27-nation bloc’s exposure to a potential export ban.

Iran’s Disappearing Oil Is Becoming Everyone’s Problem - Iranian oil is disappearing from the market just as its biggest buyer returns for more. China’s recovering crude demand is colliding with the loss of a supplier that sustained its independent refiners through the crisis, forcing them to compete for increasingly expensive alternatives. The consequences reach beyond China: every replacement barrel tightens supplies for other buyers, while Tehran faces a growing incentive to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, which is now carrying an unexpectedly strong 13 million barrels a day (just 5 million below pre-crisis level), while its own oil remains trapped. Iranian crude has long been an underestimated part of the global oil balance. After Bashar al-Assad’s government fell in December 2024, breaking the political relationship that sustained Iranian shipments to Syria, China became Iran’s only crude buyer - in 2025, it received an average of 1.4 million b/d. The war initiated by the US and Israel in late February initially made Iran even more important to Chinese buyers: while Tehran blocked other tankers from crossing Hormuz, its own cargoes passed freely, lifting Chinese intake of Iranian oil to around 1.76 million b/d in April. That competitive edge ended with the US blockade announced on April 13. Loaded tankers could no longer leave the Gulf, while empty vessels could not enter. Loadings at Kharg Island, Iran’s main export terminal, collapsed from 1.8 million b/d in March to 260,000 b/d in May. A June 17 memorandum allowing Iranian cargoes to pass for 60 days offered temporary relief: loadings recovered to 740,000 b/d in June and 890,000 b/d in July. But the reprieve expired in August, shipments slumped again to 250,000 b/d, and no Iranian loadings were observed in the Gulf in September. The more important part of the story, however, was unfolding outside the Strait. Iran had accumulated a vast floating stockpile that allowed deliveries to China to continue even when fresh cargoes could not leave the Gulf. In mid-April, that cushion stood at about 160 million barrels, spread across waters around South, Southeast and East Asia. Drawing on those stocks, China still imported 1.37 million b/d of Iranian oil in May, just 10% below February’s level. But the buffer was shrinking; floating storage fell to 106 million barrels by mid-June before the temporary reopening replenished it to 128 million by mid-July. That replenishment of available floaters has since stopped. China still received 980,000 b/d of Iranian crude in August, but only 475,000 b/d in September, with arrivals ceasing from September 26 (all of the last arriving cargoes had been loaded in June). Iran still has around 86 million barrels on the water, the lowest volume since January 2025. Yet 23 million barrels (more than a quarter) are trapped inside the Gulf. The total has barely changed since Chinese arrivals have wound down to an almost complete halt over the past two weeks, with evident loadings in the Kharg island stopping completely. With onshore storage gradually filling up (Kpler data suggests Iranian storage tanks are now 60% full, storing around 70 million barrels), Iran will face the inevitable choice of cutting production. Whilst roughly 2.2 million b/d of production is relatively safe due to demand from its refineries, Tehran’s pre-war crude output of 3.2 million b/d seems to be no longer achievable. For China’s ‘teapots’ (the smaller independent refineries concentrated in Shandong province), this removes a cornerstone of their crude supply. Accounting for roughly a fifth of Chinese crude imports, these refiners have built their purchasing strategies around discounted sanctioned barrels, particularly from Iran and Russia. Now they must search for barrels farther away, from the Middle East, West Africa and South America. In mid-September, ten Chinese independent refiners reportedly sent traders to Singapore to secure available supplies from the mentioned regions. The shift is visible at Shandong’s ports. Qingdao, connected by pipeline to 12 independent refineries, relied on Iran for 40% of its 690,000 b/d incoming flows in 2025. In recent months, it has increased purchases of Brazil’s Tupi and Buzios grades and even started receiving Guyana’s Golden Arrow in July, while still relying on Saudi and Russian supplies. Nevertheless, intake has fallen to a record low of around 150,000 b/d over the past three months. At Dongying, on Shandong’s northern Bohai coast, situated near 32 independent refineries, Russia and Iran supplied virtually all of last year’s 330,000 b/d intake, accounting for two-thirds and one-third respectively. Iranian deliveries started to decrease in summer months, with just two cargoes arriving in August and just one in September. Total intake fell to a mere 220,000 b/d in September as crude-deprived refiners were compelled to cut refinery throughputs. These refiners are being left with less oil and more expensive alternatives. Guyanese crude is particularly costly when long voyages coincide with an unprecedented shortage of very large crude carriers and record freight rates. To encourage independent refiners to increase runs, the Chinese government issued an additional 28.05 million tonnes of crude import quotas in late September, taking the annual allocation for non-state imports to a record high of 257 million tonnes. These quotas determine how much crude refiners are authorised to import, so the increase gives them room to buy more, but does little to make barrels available or more affordable. Competition for Russian oil is intensifying, too. Chinese buying has reportedly pushed ESPO differentials to an all-time high premium of $28/bbl vs ICE Brent, while Urals is also trading $7-8/bbl above the same benchmark. Independents must also compete with state-owned buyers, which currently account for roughly half of China’s seaborne crude imports, compared with 45% in February. China’s recovery is still at an early stage. Seaborne crude imports rose from 7.24 million b/d in August to 7.5 million b/d in September, but remain far below February’s 11.5 million b/d. During April–July, imports had fallen to roughly half that pre-crisis level, depressed by the Beijing-mandated refinery product export ban, lower refinery runs and a gradual shift towards SPRs usage. China’s strategic reserves (both state- and private-owned) remain at 1.12 billion barrels, down from 1.25 billion in April, but rebuilding imports while Iranian supplies disappear will put greater pressure on barrels available elsewhere. For Tehran, the imbalance is becoming harder to tolerate. Peace negotiations continue without a breakthrough, its crude remains blocked, and its export revenues are squeezed. Meanwhile, oil from neighbouring producers is moving through Hormuz at a surprisingly strong 13 million b/d. That recovery is both a relief for buyers and a vulnerability. As long as Iran cannot export, it has little economic incentive to preserve the arrangement allowing its neighbours’ barrels through. Mounting financial pressure could eventually push Tehran to disrupt those flows, even more than it did ever before. The market therefore faces two connected risks: China must replace Iranian oil as its demand recovers, and Iran may lose patience with a Strait that is reopening for everyone else. The disappearance of Iranian barrels is already tightening supply. A renewed disruption to Hormuz would make the cost of replacing them much higher.

Iran just handed the world a big clue that the war is nowhere close to ending anytime soon - The U.S. and Iran continue to negotiate over the status of the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, reports describe an incident in the Strait this week. According to Reuters, citing the shipping intelligence service Marisks, three Liberian-flagged oil tankers were “struck by unknown projectiles” while transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday.The report says the ships were moving with their Automatic Identification System transponders turned off, a common practice in recent months as ships avoid detection while transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The ships were named as the oil products tanker Al Ruwais, the “Very large crude carrier” Mersin Prosperity, and the Aframax-sized tanker Sinbad. ADNOC Logistics & Services manages the first two, while Anglo-Eastern Tanker Management manages Sinbad. Seatrade Maritime News, meanwhile, reported that a fourth vessel, the VLCC Al Funtas, was also struck in recent days. The report added that, of those ships, only Sinbad is on Iran's list of “non-compliant vessels” subject to “fines, detention, or confiscation” for transiting the Strait.The latter report cited Vanguard Tech, which said: “the extent of damage to the three vessels remains unclear at current.”According to a report by Maritime Executive about the recent wave of strikes, they show that Iran is “lashing out to demonstrate that it is still threatening vessels,” amid reports that Iran’s grip on the Strait of Hormuz has been loosening.That report also cited Iran’s Fars News Agency, which claimed that warning shots had been fired at vessels trying to get through the Strait on Tuesday.These reports follow last weekend’s reporting from NBC News, which stated Iranian forces on September 14 had struck a ship that U.S. forces were on in the Strait of Hormuz, which led to injuries – including smoke inhalation and possibly traumatic brain injuries — for those service members, who were not on a Navy ship at the time. Seven of the injured were enlisted, while one was an officer, and all have since returned to duty, NBC said.  It took two weeks for the first news reports to break. The War Zone reported that while it’s unclear which ship the service members were on, there’s a “strong possibility” it was the former British Royal Mail vessel RMS St Helena, converted into a “floating armory.”TWZ had not confirmed that this was the ship, and CENTCOM did not comment.However, Trade Winds News reported more definitively, shortly after the attack, that Iran had “attacked a historic former British Royal Mail passenger ship in the Strait of Hormuz,” although that report did not state that U.S. service members were on board.How, exactly, did Iran’s grip on the Strait loosen? A series of media reports in recent days has examined how that happened. According to the Wall Street Journal, Iran’s ability to “choke off oil” flowing through the crucial waterway has weakened, along with its leverage in talks with the U.S. That’s because both the U.S. Navy and Gulf oil producers have improved their ability when it comes to “fending off or evading Iranian attacks, allowing more tankers to cross the strait.”As a result, Middle Eastern crude oil exports have rebounded to nearly 80 percent of their prewar levels, the Journal said, citing Kpler data.Factors include Saudi Arabia getting its East-West Pipeline back online and other workarounds.Separately, Bloomberg News reported this week that Sheik Khaled bin Mohamed Al Nahyan, Abu Dhabi’s crown prince, is spending billions of dollars on a project called “Zero Hormuz.”  The Sheik, who earlier this year took control of L’imad Holding, a $300 billion sovereign wealth fund, is working to build new port infrastructure needed to achieve the goal of “overriding Iran’s stranglehold over the Strait of Hormuz.” The fund announced it is taking Abu Dhabi Ports Co. private at a valuation of over $9 billion, aiming to reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz.Meanwhile, The Economist reported that President Donald Trump’s public rejection, earlier this week, of Iran’s latest ceasefire proposal came because Trump feels it’s a better idea to wait.

Three Ships Struck in the Strait of Hormuz as IRCG Says US Isn't Responding to Attacks - -The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said on Wednesday that three ships had been struck by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz a day earlier, as Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) suggested it has been continuing daily attacks on vessels in the strategic waterway. Hossein Mohebbi, a spokesman for the IRGC, said the US has “not been responding” to the attacks. Several weeks ago, the US began what was called a “tanker for tanker” policy where it would bomb Iranian tankers in response to attacks on US ships, but it appears to have backed down on the strategy.  “We have been hitting small ships and preventing them from passing for a long time, but America does not respond,” Mohebbi said, according to The Cradle. “There is a military confrontation in the Strait of Hormuz every 24 hours. For some time now, the US has not been responding.”  Also on Wednesday, energy data firm Kpler said crude exports from the Gulf nations, except Iran, have reached pre-war levels, with 40% of shipments bypassing the Strait of Hormuz through pipelines, up from 17% before the war.  Oil has been exiting the strait mainly by smaller tankers conducting ship-to-ship transfers from larger tankers inside the Gulf to others in the Arabian Sea, as well as by supertankers escorted by the US Navy. At least one of the ships that was struck on Tuesday was one of the smaller tankers, which shut off their AIS while transiting the Strait of Hormuz to avoid detection. Iranian officials said Wednesday that they received an official response from the US in the Qatar-mediated negotiations. But the chances of a breakthrough still appear unlikely as the two sides remain far apart, and US officials reportedly expect President Trump to resume bombing Iran after the midterm elections.

Tanker struck by unknown projectile in Strait of Hormuz: UK maritime agency - A tanker was struck by an unknown projectile while transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Friday, said the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO). The ship’s master reported that the tanker was hit during an outbound transit through the strait at 1122GMT, according to UKMTO. The strike caused a small fire and a blackout aboard the vessel, it said. The fire was later extinguished and the vessel is underway, it added. No casualties or environmental impact were reported from the incident, according to the agency. Authorities are investigating the incident, while the agency advised vessels transiting the area to exercise caution and report any suspicious activity.

India says 5 citizens rescued after Kuwait-flagged tanker hit by projectile in Hormuz Strait - India on Saturday said five of its citizens had been rescued after a Kuwait-flagged tanker was hit by a projectile in the Strait of Hormuz. The Indian Embassy in Oman said on US social media company X that it had coordinated the rescue of five Indian citizens on board the Kuwait-flagged tanker MT Kazimah III, that were “struck by a projectile in the Strait of Hormuz.” “All 5 Indian nationals have been shifted ashore safely,” the embassy said. “We thank the Omani authorities for their continued support and assistance.” “We remain committed to the safety, security and welfare of our seafarers abroad,” India's Ministry of External Affairs spokesman Randhir Jaiswal said on X. Regional tensions have remained high since the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran on Feb. 28, prompting Tehran to retaliate against Israeli targets and US military facilities across the region. The war has also severely disrupted navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global energy supplies. Iran has since linked the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to measures including an end to hostilities, sanctions relief, the release of frozen assets and the implementation of commitments by Washington.

Report: Ansar Allah Tells EU It Won't Target European Ships - - Yemen’s Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthis, has told the EU that it doesn’t intend to target European shipping, The Financial Times has reported, as the group has maintained that its Red Sea blockade applies only to Saudi shipping. Ansar Allah began its blockade on Saudi shipping after Saudi Arabia launched airstrikes against the Sanaa International Airport back in July, which reignited the war after a ceasefire had held relatively well since 2022.The FT report said Ansar Allah sent the EU a letter saying its ground offensive, which has involved the group taking over the Red Sea port city of Mocha and islands in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, wouldn’t affect international shipping.Ansar Allah has also conveyed a similar message to the US, as a US-Ansar Allah ceasefire reached in May 2025 remains in effect, something President Trump has made clear. The US president said last week that his administration is in “constant communication with the Houthis and that they have agreed not to fight the United States.”Ansar Allah has also made clear to the US that there would be consequences if the US directly joins the Saudi war, with one official warning US “interests” would be targeted in the region in response and that the Bab el-Mandeb would be shut to US shipping.Back in 2024, the US and the UK began a bombing campaign against Ansar Allah over its blockade on Israeli-linked shipping in the Red Sea, which was imposed in response to Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza. In response to the US-UK bombing campaign, Ansar Allah began targeting US and British-linked shipping in the region, and the US-UK strikes failed to stop the attacks. While it hasn’t entered the current war directly, the US is still providing significant support for Saudi Arabia’s bombing campaign in Yemen. According to recent reports, up to 200 US military advisors are in Saudi Arabia providing targeting and intelligence support. The UK also announced recently that it would begin refueling Saudi warplanes, and France said it will send troops and military equipment to help “protect” the Saudi port city of Yanbu, where Ansar Allah has repeatedly targeted oil infrastructure.

Saudi Airstrikes on Yemen Market Kill at Least Seven: Yemeni Health Ministry - (video)Saudi airstrikes hit a market in Yemen’s Taiz province on Sunday, killing at least seven people and wounding 40, including five children, according to Ansar Allah officials and Yemeni media reports. Footage from Yemen’s Al Masirah TV shows the aftermath of the strike, which hit several shops, and Yemeni civilians being treated for their wounds. The Health Ministry within the Ansar Allah-led Yemeni government said that it condemned “this horrific crime committed by Saudi enemy aircraft through their direct and deliberate targeting of civilian objects.” Footage via Al-Masirah TV.  Sources from the Saudi-backed Yemeni government, whose leadership is based in Riyadh, claimed in comments to Reuters that Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthis, set up a military camp in the area. The Saudi-backed Yemeni government claimed that it carried out a strike targeting Ansar Allah in the same location, but it hasn’t had a real air force since Ansar Allah took control of Sanaa in 2014, and it relies on Saudi Arabia for air power. Saudi Arabia was notorious for frequently hitting civilian targets during its war against Ansar Allah from 2015 to 2022, and there have been an increasing number of civilian casualties since the war was reignited by the July 13 Saudi airstrikes that targeted the Sanaa International Airport. The US strongly backs Saudi Arabia’s air campaign in Yemen by providing intelligence and targeting support, plus the fact that Saudi Arabia uses US-made F-15 fighter jets and US-provided bombs to carry out many of the strikes. So far, the US has refrained from entering the war directly, and a ceasefire reached between the US and Ansar Allah in May 2025 remains in effect.  Ansar Allah has continued launching missile and drone attacks on Saudi Arabia, and more are expected following the market bombing. “This bloodshed, unjustly and aggressively spilled in the Mawiyah market in Taiz Governorate, will have dire consequences for the Saudi aggressors, God willing,” Ansar Allah military spokesman Yahya Saree said in a statement on the attack, which also said the strikes were carried out by an F-15.In a separate statement, Saree said that over the past 24 hours, Saudi forces “launched 26 airstrikes using F-15 fighter jets that took off from Khamis Mushait Air Base, targeting the provinces of Taiz, Al-Jawf, Marib, Dhamar, and Saada.”“These attacks resulted in dozens of civilian casualties, bringing the total number of Saudi-led airstrikes and missile attacks since the escalation began to 1,085,” Saree added.

Ansar Allah Says Saudi Arabia Launched 35 Airstrikes in Yemen Over 24 Hours - -Ansar Allah military spokesman Yahya Saree said on Tuesday that Yemeni forces recorded 35 Saudi airstrikes over the previous 24-hour period, which comes as ground fighting between Ansar Allah and Saudi-backed forces continues mainly in the southwestern Taiz province.“Over the past 24 hours, Saudi warplanes launched 35 airstrikes using F-15 and Typhoon aircraft, taking off from Khamis Mushait and Taif airbases,” Saree wrote on Telegram.Saree alleged that the “strikes targeted civilian infrastructure, including communications networks and schools, in the governorates of Taiz, Al-Jawf, Amran, Saada, and Hodeidah.” He added that the latest attacks bring the “total number of Saudi-led airstrikes and missile attacks since the escalation began to 1,158.”Separately, Yemen’s National Human Rights Authority, a rights monitoring group that operates in the part of Yemen governed by Ansar Allah, which is where most Yemenis live, accused “Saudi enemy forces” of killing a girl in a mortar attack in the Maqbanah District of Taiz. A day earlier, Yemeni media reported that a Saudi strike on a civilian home in Taiz killed four people, including an elderly man and three women. Saudi Arabia was notorious for bombing civilian areas during its war against Ansar Allah from 2015 to 2022, and the current conflict, which was reignited by Saudi airstrikes on the Sanaa International Airport in July, has followed a similar pattern. The US is supporting the Saudi airstrikes by providing targeting and intelligence support. Also on Tuesday, Arab News reported that an Ansar Allah missile attack hit a base belonging to the Saudi-backed government in the southern Lahj province, killing at least eight fighters.The US and other countries that back Saudi Arabia have so far refrained from directly entering the war by launching airstrikes in Yemen. Ansar Allah has made clear that it would respond to such escalations by ramping up its Red Sea blockade, which currently applies only to Saudi shipping.

Signs Of Fresh Houthi Attack On Saudi Aramco Facilities - At a moment there are widespread reports that Persian Gulf exports are fast recovering, there are simultaneous emerging albeit delayed reports of new tanker attack incidents that happened Tuesday. On apparent crude transit recovery amid continued deep uncertainty, "For now, that reduces fears of an immediate crude shortage and explains why prices can fall even though talks between the US and Iran have made no clear progress," Simon-Peter Massabni from XS.com says. "The market's main question is whether this faster pace of shipments can be sustained through October."But the UK's Maritime Trade Operations agency has announced more vessel incidents which looked to have happened on Tuesday. Three distinct incident advisories detailing strikes on vessels within the region. The affected ships included a liquefied natural gas carrier and a crude oil tanker, both of which were reportedly impacted by unidentified projectiles - with little other details known.We reported earlier on one of the three assaults, which involved a Very Large Crude Carrier in the Strait of Hormuz getting hit by a drone, after which a fire briefly erupted but was extinguished, and the tanker traversed on, and with no casualties.In the meantime Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) spokesman Hossein Mohebbi has proclaimed that there is a "military conflict" in the Strait of Hormuz on a daily basis but that the US is not responding."We have been hitting small ships and preventing them from passing for a long time, but America does not respond," Mohebbi told semi-official Fars news agency.Axios late in the day Tuesday had cited "little progress" in US-Iran indirect talks, with on Wednesday an Al Jazeera correspondent saying that Washington has submitted a counter-proposal to Tehran. Here's more from Axios which basically contradicts much of their own earlier in the week reporting:  Efforts this week by Qatari mediators to broker a diplomatic breakthrough between the U.S. and Iran have made little progress, with neither side willing to budge, according to three sources familiar with the talks. The stalemate bolsters the belief on both sides that a renewed military conflict is becoming more likely. U.S. officials think President Trump could order a return to major combat operations after the midterms. Update(1159ET): While very unconfirmed at this early stage, the Houthis have reportedly attacked the Abqaiq oil city in eastern Saudi Arabia this afternoon (local), reports IRNA citing anonymous news sources. Abqaiq is at the heart of of Saudi crude processing, and it has been struck previously in the context of the Saudi-Yemen conflict. However, there have been conflicting reports, with some open-source accounts offering satellite imaging saying there are signs of a large fire at the site: No official sources have confirmed a Wednesday attack as of yet. Early purported images circulating:

Saudis plan assault on Houthis to break Red Sea chokehold (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia is planning an offensive against Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen, with options being considered including a coastal push to secure the Red Sea shipping route or an assault on multiple fronts, regional and Western officials told Reuters. The operation, expected to be launched in the coming weeks, will by led by Yemeni forces on the ground, which are overseen by Riyadh, and supported by Saudi air strikes, according to six people with knowledge of the preparations. While the US is already providing intelligence to support Riyadh's operations in Yemen, and some regional and European nations are providing mainly defensive military aid to the kingdom, the Saudi allies aren't expected to play a direct role in combat operations, said the people who requested anonymity to discuss security matters. Saudi Arabia entered neighboring Yemen's civil war in 2015 at the head of an Arab coalition in support of the internationally recognized government, which the Houthis had driven out of the capital Sanaa. A truce agreed between the warring parties in 2022 largely held until this year when the Houthis launched missile and drone attacks on Saudi shipping and oil infrastructure in a spillover from the Iran war. A key objective of the planned Saudi offensive, which hasn't been previously reported, is aimed at reversing the rapid gains made by the Houthis last month when they advanced down the coast and seized control of the Bab el-Mandeb strait, according to the people with knowledge of the plans who include Gulf and Yemeni officials and Western diplomats. The Saudis are considering two possible options for the assault, the Gulf and Yemeni officials said: Either a narrowly focused attack on the area around Bab el-Mandeb or a broader offensive that also includes other synchronized attacks on multiple fronts around Yemen, in the governorates of Al-Bayda, Marib, Taiz and Al-Jawf. More than 100,000 Yemeni troops could be mobilized in the offensive, depending on the scale, the officials all said. Spokespeople for the Saudi and Yemeni governments, the Houthi group and the US military didn't immediately respond to requests for comment about the Saudi plans.

Israeli Strikes Surge Across Southern Lebanon in Latest Escalation -  On Saturday, Israeli officials reported that Hezbollah carried out an explosive drone attack against their troops. Notably, the drone was described by the IDF as having been “launched toward” their troops, but it caused no damage or casualties.  Israel responded with yet another substantial escalation of Israeli strikes against southern Lebanon. Intense shelling was reported against Mansouri, and an Israeli Apace helicopter attacked a main commercial center of Mayfadoun.  Israeli tanks fired shells at Hadatha, and machine gun fire was reportedly directly at Beit Yahoun. Many of these villages are under standing evacuation orders, and there were no reports of casualties, though considerable destruction was reported.   White phosphorus munitions were fired against Nabatieh al-Fawqa and Zawtar al-Sharqiyah, setting fires. Lebanese Army personnel disarmed unexploded ordinance dropped by Israeli forces in and around Majdal Selm. Having spent hours attacking residential and commercial districts around southern Lebanon, the IDF did what the IDF does, and issued a statement saying that they’d been hitting “Hezbollah infrastructure,” providing no evidence that any such infrastructure was actually hit.  

IDF Declares Mostly-Destroyed Lebanese Town of Mansouri ‘Finished’ After Huge Explosion - - Israel launches attacks on several locations in southern Lebanon on any given day. That’s barely news in and of itself anymore, but one of the sites most persistently targeted in recent weeks was the town of Mansouri, in Tyre District.In early August, Israel’s military imposed a full evacuation order on Mansouri, and the attacks started scaling up. At this point, the town appears to have been largely destroyed, and the IDF declared today that their Combat Engineering Unit has “finished” destroying Hezbollah infrastructure in that town.They reported 600 “Hezbollah infrastructure” sites destroyed, which are more commonly referred to as civilian homes and commercial sites. The IDF said the destruction was meant to ensure Hezbollah could never reestablish itself in the area. Today’s completion of operations came after a massive explosion in the town, which could be heard across the district, and after which smoke could be seen rising over the town, to the extent it can be called a town anymore.Earlier this summer Israeli DM Israel Katz said that a number of Lebanese villages had to “disappear,” but previously those were immediately along the border with Israel. Mansouri, by contrast, is about 10 km north of the boundary, but seems to have similarly been wiped out.

Mass Funeral Held in Central Gaza for Dozens of Palestinians Killed by Previous Israeli Attacks - News From Antiwar.com   A mass funeral was held in the Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza on Tuesday for dozens of Palestinians killed by previous Israeli attacks, whose remains have been recovered from the rubble.  Reports vary on the number of people who were buried during the funeral, with Reuters reporting 41 and the Yaffa News Network reporting that 51 Palestinians were mourned.Mohammad Abu Nabhan, a 42-year-old Gaza resident, told Yaffa that he was mourning 13 members of his family, including his mother, two brothers, their wives and children, who were killed by an Israeli strike on the family home in July, 2025.Areej Farajallah, 36, said that she was saying goodbye to her husband, Samir, who was killed by an Israeli strike in November 2024. She said she had only two of his bones to bury, calling it “better than nothing.”“There are mixed feelings between relief, sadness, and pain. But thank God, the fire in my heart has eased a little, because my husband now has a grave that my orphaned children and I can visit,” Farajallah told Reuters.Gaza’s rescue workers have struggled to dig bodies out of the rubble as the US and Israel are still blocking construction equipment from entering the Strip and preventing reconstruction, a joint decision made by the two countries. There have been multiple mass funerals held in Gaza this year, including one in Gaza City earlier in September, where about 100 Palestinians, including 62 children, were buried.Gaza’s Civil Defense said on Tuesday that there will be another mass funeral for 105 Palestinians in Gaza City on October 1. “May God have mercy on the martyrs and grant their families patience and strength,” the agency said on Telegram.     Gaza’s Health Ministry said that since the ceasefire deal, which Israel has constantly violated, was signed in October 2025, 834 bodies have been recovered from the rubble. It’s estimated that more than 8,000 remain buried, including many on the Israeli-occupied side of the strip, where the IDF has continued demolitions and has been removing rubble, raising questions about whether human remains are also being removed.

Smotrich Calls for Israel To Do in the West Bank 'What We Did in Gaza' as IDF Imposes Week-Long Closure -   Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has called for Israel to “go to war” in the Israeli-occupied West Bank in the same way it did in Gaza, as the Israeli military imposed a complete closure of the West Bank for one week, further restricting the movement of Palestinians. “I think we need to go to war in Judea and Samaria (the West Bank). Do there what we did in Gaza. Dismantle the Palestinian Authority, which is a terrorist authority,” Smotrich said in an interview with Ynet that was published on Sunday.When asked what he meant, Smotrich referenced an Israeli military campaign in the northern West Bank refugee camps of Jenin, Tulkarem, and Nur Shams that began in January 2025 and involved the forced displacement of more than 30,000 Palestinians from their homes. The refugee camps remain empty today as the residents haven’t been allowed to return, and many of the roads and buildings in the camps have been destroyed.“We’ve already done it. There are three refugee camps there that are empty,” Smotrich said. He framed the forced evacuation as a way to “protect” the population, but Smotrich has been explicit about his desire for more Palestinian land and said in the interview that he wants to annex swathes of territory in Gaza and Lebanon.“I would like us to annex at least as far as the yellow line in Gaza and as far as the Litani River in Lebanon, because a war that ends along the same lines where it began will not prevent the enemy from going to war again next time,” he said. Smotrich’s interview came as settler and Israeli military violence against Palestinians in the West Bank continues to skyrocket. Amid the escalations, the Palestinian news agency WAFA first reported on Sunday that the Israeli military has “imposed a comprehensive closure on the occupied West Bank and closed border crossings, citing the Jewish holidays,” which includes “tightened military restrictions at checkpoints.”

Smotrich Says the Key To Forcing Palestinians Out of Gaza Is To 'Take Away Their Hope' - - Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has repeated his calls for the ethnic cleansing of Gaza and the re-establishment of Jewish settlements in the Palestinian territory in a new interview with Israel’s Channel 14 that was published on Monday.  Smotrich, who also holds a position in the Israeli Defense Ministry, said that the key to forcing Palestinians out of Gaza is to “take away their hope” and keep them in a tiny, crowded part of the Strip that will never be rebuilt.“The biggest key to migration is: take away their hope. As long as they think that one day there will be reconstruction there, and then it will flourish again — if you annex up to the Yellow Line, and that’s ours, and then what remains is tiny, crowded, and destroyed, everyone will understand that there’s nothing to look for there. They’ll start looking for solutions for where to go,” Smotrich said.Smotrich made similar comments in May 2025 when he was discussing an Israeli plan at the time to push all of Gaza’s civilians into a concentration camp in a tiny area in southern Gaza.“The Gazan citizens will be concentrated in the south. They will be totally despairing, understanding that there is no hope and nothing to look for in Gaza, and will be looking for relocation to begin a new life in other places,” he said.In the Channel 14 interview, Smotrich complained about Egypt not opening its borders to Palestinians from Gaza and said that European countries should take them in.“Listen, if every country in Europe were willing to take 20,000–30,000 refugees from Gaza, this whole thing would be over. But they really, really love the Gazans when they’re stuck here, like a thorn in our side,” Smotrich said.

France gripped by spreading student protests as PM calls crisis meeting (AP) — France’s prime minister convened a crisis meeting Thursday and canceled ministers’ trips to focus on the nationwide spread of protests, some violent, by high school students venting about under-resourced schools, long hours and other complaints. The demonstrations erupted in Paris-region schools last week and have snowballed, with police making hundreds of arrests in clashes with the young protesters. Authorities have reported many dozens of injuries, including from hurled objects but also, in some suspected cases, from police riot-control projectiles. The protests are quickly blowing up as a hot topic in the election campaign to replace President Emmanuel Macron, who is constitutionally barred from seeking a third consecutive term next May. They are also heightening pressure on the government beset by France’s growing financial problems, and overshadowing the release on Thursday of its proposed cost-cutting budget for 2027. At a Paris high school where students barricaded an entrance, 18-year-old Salama Gargouri said protesters want to target “overloaded schedules, the system, the teachers, people who don’t listen to us, the university application process.” High school students in France often start classes at 8 a.m. and remain at school until late afternoon. “Older people say, ‘Kids, go to school from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. every day.’ But you don’t know what that does mentally,” said Janna Tahari, another Paris high school student. Arson, thrown projectiles and other violence on the margins of some protests have caused mounting injuries and recriminations. The interior minister has issued orders for police to break up blockades that prevent pupils from attending classes and to put a stop to violence and vandalism. Juliette Estiville, a high school Spanish teacher, said that the repression of the protests led her to join the students. “So, I’m here just to provide protection, to form a barrier between the police and the students,” she said. “And indeed, today went well, it’s going well, but I really think that the teachers who come to the blockades are really just there to protect our young people.” Education Minister Edouard Geffray said Thursday’s violence included a school set on fire and staff doused with gasoline. He said he issued instructions that classes be held remotely when blockades or damage to schools put students at risk. “Violence will not deprive our students of their fundamental right to education,” Geffray said in a post on X.