week ending Oct 10

Fed's Waller says more interest rate hikes likely on the way -  Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller said he expects the Federal Open Market Committee to raise short-term interest rates if inflation does not show signs of easing.

• Key takeaway: Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller said the ongoing war in Iran and trade conflicts that could lead to new tariffs are shifting inflation risks higher.
• Expert quote: "If the economic data continue to come in as expected, I anticipate additional hikes to support a timelier return of inflation to our 2% goal." —Fed Gov. Christopher Waller.
• What's at stake: The FOMC is next scheduled to meet on Oct. 27-28.

Waller said he expects short-term interest rates to rise if inflation does not show signs of easing.

Fed's Waller: More hikes needed, but there is flexibility about the pace (Reuters) - US Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday that additional rate hikes will likely be needed to lower inflation to the Fed's 2% target, but added there was "flexibility" about the pace of increases and left the door open for a pause at the Fed's upcoming October meeting. "If the economic data continue to come in as expected, I anticipate additional hikes to support a timelier return of inflation to our 2% goal," Waller said in remarks prepared for delivery at a Central Bank of Turkey forum in Istanbul. "But there is some flexibility about when those hikes will occur. The hikes do not need to come at consecutive meetings, but they should be in place in an acceptable period of time." Waller's comments add to those of other Fed officials in recent days suggesting they will likely keep the policy rate steady at the current 3.75% to 4% range when they meet on October 27-28, with a rate increase likely in December if incoming data shows an economy with continued low unemployment, ongoing growth, and only limited, if any, immediate progress in lowering inflation. The Fed raised the policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point in September, and projections released at the time show most US central bankers expect another quarter-point hike by the end of the year. Investors currently see the Fed keeping rates steady at the October meeting, just a week before US congressional elections, but raising rates six weeks later at the December 8-9 policy session. Waller did not say how much further he feels the policy rate may need to rise to tamp down inflation that is currently more than a percentage point above the Fed's target. But he said the case for higher rates has become clear with the economy strengthening, an energy price shock from the Iran war still unresolved, and new concerns that the artificial intelligence buildout is adding to inflation through increased demand for key goods and services. "With evidence that economic activity is strengthening in the second half of this year, I am not greatly concerned that tighter monetary policy threatens a damaging slowdown in the economy," Waller said. "But I am concerned that the recent acceleration in inflation... will lead consumers, investors, and price-setting businesses to revise up their expectations for future inflation." He is the third top Fed official in recent days to indicate a willingness to wait before raising rates again, while leaving open a clear potential need to eventually boost borrowing costs further — a message that investors seem to have absorbed in setting expectations for the coming Fed meeting. That has occurred in the absence of any commentary by Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, who took over as the top central banker saying he wanted to avoid providing too much guidance about coming policy decisions. Waller and others, however, have continued talking. In his remarks on Thursday he laid out how recent comments by his colleagues had helped markets set probabilities about the interest rate path without promising any particular outcome — a better policymaking approach, he argued, that avoids the volatility that can occur if investors are left without any signal at all. Policymakers can "signal where they are likely headed while acknowledging that there is no fixed final destination," Waller said, the latest among several Fed officials to argue that a fuller shutdown of Fed policy communications would be unwise. "This signaling helps to anchor the path of short-term interest rates but provides flexibility in adjusting rate hikes based on incoming data."

Trump establishes committee to investigate Fed's Cook -President Donald Trump Friday morning announced the formation of a three-member committee to investigate whether Federal Reserve Gov. Lisa Cook made false statements related to a mortgage application and whether such statements establish cause for her removal from office.

• Key insight: President Trump established a three-person committee to investigate whether Federal Reserve Gov. Lisa Cook "made false statements in connection with one or more mortgage instruments." The committee will then report to the president as to whether there is "cause" for her removal.
• Expert quote: "As President, it is my job to ensure the laws are faithfully executed, including by firing subordinates who cannot be trusted to tell the truth and follow the law."

President Donald Trump announced the formation of a committee to investigate allegations of mortgage impropriety by Federal Reserve Gov. Lisa Cook in an effort to remove her from office.

One-Year Inflation Expectations Jump To 3 Year High: NY Fed Survey Americans' expectations for inflation over the near-tern jumped last month while their sentiment toward the labor market improved, the latest NY Fed Federal survey of consumer expectations showed on Wednesday. Consumers’ estimates for inflation one-year ahead rose to a median 3.9% in September, up from 3.6% the prior month, reaching the highest level since May of 2023. At the same time, inflation expectations increased 0.1% to 3.3% at three-year horizon, and were unchanged at 3.0% at five-year horizon. Over the next year consumers expect gasoline prices to rise 4.8%; food prices to rise 5.5%; medical costs to rise 9.2%; the price of a college education to rise 7.5%; rent prices to rise 6.8% While the inflation outlook deteriorated, views on the labor market improved as workers saw a lower probability of losing their jobs and higher odds of voluntarily quitting, the New York Fed’s monthly consumer expectations survey showed. The proportion of respondents expecting the overall unemployment rate to rise in the next year fell fractionally to around 44%. Their perceived chances of finding a new role in the next three months if they lost their current job increased to 46%. Consumers’ expectations of losing their jobs in the next year fell, with the outlook improving the most for workers between 40 and 60 years old and with annual household incomes above $100,000. Chances of leaving a post voluntarily also rose, especially among workers without a bachelor’s degree and above 40 years old. Released less than a month away from the November mid-term elections, the New York Fed data is the latest survey highlighting Americans’ persistent pessimism around an economy that’s according to government data is expanding, if only for data centers and affiliated workers and billionaires. Separate data released in recent weeks showed that consumer sentiment fell to a four-month low in September and the unemployment rate rose slightly but remained historically low. That's the good news: the bad news is that the survey also found that year-ahead earnings growth expectations fell back to 12-month average of 2.6%. At the same time, the survey showed consumers’ perceptions of their own finances worsened for the second straight month. Around 42% of households said their situation is much or somewhat worse than a year ago, while around 18% said it had improved. More households also said they expected their financial outcomes to worsen in the year ahead, and more consumers now say it’s harder to get credit than it was a year ago.

10-year Treasury yields hit 24-year high  -  The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond hit a 24-year high during trading last Thursday, forecasting higher borrowing costs for Americans.  The 10-year bond yield topped 5.34 percent early Thursday morning, the note’s highest mark since April 2002. That month, the yield reached a closing peak of 5.48 percent.  The 10-year bond yield has continued to spike over the last seven months, after closing at 3.96 percent on Feb. 27 — the day before the U.S. and Israel launched the war with Iran. The Middle East conflict has led to increased energy prices due to Iran’s restrictions on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, fueling a rise in inflation in the U.S.Annual inflation, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures price index, was 3.4 percent in August, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Wednesday.The national average price of a gallon of regular gas is roughly $4.41 as of Thursday, which is about $1.43 higher than two days before the conflict began, according to data from AAA.Rising government debt has also contributed to bond yields increasing globally. The U.S. national debt, which exceeded $40 trillion in August, is roughly $40.1 trillion. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond, which pays a higher interest rate than shorter-term securities, has also increased so far Thursday. As of midmorning, the note is up roughly 3 basis points from Wednesday closing, trading at about 5.67 percent. That also marks the highest point for the note since April 2002. Rising bond yields are also attributable to rising demand for artificial intelligence data centers and models, which Federal Reserve officials have cited as putting upward pressure on prices. “Data center investment relies on inputs, like construction labor and energy, that are broadly used in many sectors in the economy,” Fed board member Lisa Cook said Monday at a technology conference in Oakland, Calif. “As a result, increased AI investment could introduce price pressure to those other sectors.”The sell-off in the American bond market is leading to increased borrowing costs, including for home loans. The average 30-year mortgage rate was 7.03 percent last week, surpassing 7 percent for the first time since January 2025, according to data from Freddie Mac.

Did Bessent Call In Favor? Stellar 10Y Auction Prices At Highest Yield Since 2000 On Near Record Foreign Demand After yesterday's ugly auction, bond markets were on edge ahead of today's $39 billion reopening of benchmark 10 Year paper: an ugly auction could well send yields to new multi-decade highs (if not vice versa). Well, at 1pm we got the results of today's 10Y auction (technically 9 Year, 10 Month reopening) and... they were surprisingly strong. Starting at the top: the auction stopped at a high yield of exactly 5.300%, which was almost half a percent higher than the September auction's high yield of 4.8340% and was also the highest 10Y auction yield going back to November 2000, just as the dot com bubble was bursting. But what the market was more focused on was whether the auction would tail: anything remotely ugly as the 5Y auction two weeks ago and all bets were off. However, not only did the auction not tail, it stopped through the When Issued 5.317% by 1.7bps, the 5th consecutive stop through and the biggest since April 2025! Needless to say, this result raised lots of eyebrows, with many wondering if Bessent called in a favor from one or more "friendly" G7 nations to get a satisfactory result. That theory got a second wind when looking at the internals: unlike most recent auctions which saw a sharp drop in foreign (indirect) demand, today we saw a nearly record foreign demand, as Indirects were awarded a whopping 80.3%, the 4th highest ever. And with Directs taking a modest 17.1%, right in line with the 17.0% recent average, Dealers were left holding an amazing 2.5%, the lowest in 10Y history... and easily a flashing red flag that something was very odd in today's auction. Odd or not, today's auction was remarkably solid for soundbite purposes, and allowed bond markets to exhale... ... and sending 10Y yields to session lows, down 5bps on the auction itself. Still, the bounce was short lasting and just like French OATs, the selling resumed promptly after the auction as the bond market - unlike its stock peers - is far less gullible and realizes that while today's auction was always going to go through, absolutely nothing has changed.

Ex-Fed nominee Shelton tapped to advise Treasury's Bessent - The Department of the Treasury has picked Judy Shelton, an economist and former nominee for the Federal Reserve Board, to be a counselor in Secretary Scott Bessent's office.

Araghchi Denies Report That Iranian Delegation Was 'Kicked Out' of the US After the UN General Assembly - Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has denied a report from Axios that claimed members of the Iranian delegation who attended the UN General Assembly in New York City were “kicked out” of the country. The report from Axios reporter Barak Ravid, which cited an unnamed US official, said two Iranian officials left after ignoring an early State Department order to leave. “Secretary Rubio means business. Two more members of the Iranian delegation were found still in New York long after the UN General Assembly had passed. They have now been kicked out of the country,” the official said. Araghchi responded to the report in a post on X on Sunday. “All Iranian diplomats who attended UNGA, except one who departed earlier, left as scheduled,” he wrote. “Taking pride in fake diplomat ‘expulsion’ is inappropriate for the head of any diplomatic corps. It oozes of desperation and defeat, and is inconsistent with UN host nation obligations,” Araghchi added. After attending the UNGA, Araghchi and other Iranian officials spent time in New York meeting with Qatari officials mediating between the US and Iran, but there was no sign of a breakthrough, as the two sides remain far apart. Araghchi had offered a seven-day proposal that would see Iran fully open the Strait of Hormuz if the US ended its blockade, lifted sanctions on Iran, and released frozen Iranian funds, commitments the US made under the Memorandum of Understanding signed in July, but President Trump rejected the proposal. While Araghchi has stressed that Iran is open to diplomacy, he has also said that the country is ready to face a renewed round of US airstrikes, which Trump is signaling may begin after the midterm elections. “If our enemies once again choose the path of military confrontation, they will face a stronger response than before, and we will defend ourselves more powerfully than before,” Araghchi said at a briefing to other diplomats in Tehran on Sunday.

7 Oil Tankers Attacked In Strait Of Hormuz, As U.S. Official Admits Iran's Targeting Abilities Keep Improving - Depending on where you live, you may have seen fuel prices drop over the weekend, but that wasn't because Republicans are finally winning the senseless war they started with Iran. No, it's mostly because the governors of Georgia and Ohio suspended their states' gas taxes, while governors in other states have found short-term solutions for temporarily making diesel less expensive. Meanwhile, over in the Strait of Hormuz, the Wall Street Journal reports Iran has increased its attacks on oil tankers attempting to transit the strait, slowing oil exports yet again.  According to the WSJ, crude oil shipments had largely returned to prewar levels after a series of U.S. strikes took out Iran's radar and communications abilities along the strait. That lull in hostilities, combined with Gulf countries working overtime to find alternative routes that avoid the strait, briefly allowed oil exports to surge. But much like Georgia's suddenly lower gas prices, Iran losing its targeting capabilities was only temporary. Since September 28, UK Maritime Trade Operations data shows Iran has hit seven ships traveling through Hormuz, and it appears Iran struck an eighth ship on Sunday, as well. As the WSJ explained: Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps navy issued a warning to ships planning to use the U.S.-backed route through the strait on Saturday, saying that they would be targeted and destroyed. "Don't trust U.S. Navy and don't use south corridor at all and don't put your life in danger," a radio message transmitted on a public shipping channel and reviewed by The Wall Street Journal said. The renewed attacks may already be taking a toll, with early signs that oil flows are beginning to slow, analysts say. Firm data comes with a lag, because many ships are operating without their transponders switched on to avoid becoming targets. All seven vessels were attacked near the narrowest part of the Hormuz strait, according to UKMTO. Iran's targeting is improving Majid Saeedi/Getty Images Ideally, the oppressive regime running Iran would be getting weaker as the war stretches past its seventh month, but according to one U.S. official the WSJ spoke with, that's not the case. Instead, they're reportedly getting better at targeting ships in the strait, undermining Republican claims that the U.S. controls the strait and threatening to send fuel prices even higher: Iran's ability to target ships has also improved in recent weeks, adding to the risks in the strait, according to a U.S. official. The U.S. several weeks ago said it would strike Iranian oil tankers in response to Tehran's attacks, but it has since backed off that effort after Iran unleashed a wave of missiles at a U.S. air base in Jordan, the official said. The new strikes expose the fragility of the recovery in oil flows and come as President Trump, who has claimed full U.S. control over Hormuz, weighs renewed military action against Iran. At the moment, AAA reports the average gas price in the U.S. is still $4.37 a gallon, while the average gallon of diesel sits at $6.32. Brent Crude, meanwhile, is still trading at more than $100 a barrel, and if Iran continues to target tankers with increased precision, analysts say to expect Brent to stay over $100 through the rest of this year and on into 2028. "The step-up in attacks on ships highlights how the current equilibrium in the oil market is fragile and could easily be shattered," Capital Economics senior economist Hamad Hussain told the WSJ. "This would especially be the case if there is further escalation and energy infrastructure is targeted." Putin continuing his invasion of Ukraine isn't helping with global oil prices, either, with ABC News reporting that Ukrainian counterattacks have knocked out half of Russia's refining capacity. Meanwhile, NBC News reports Yemen and Saudi Arabia still have their hands full with the Houthi rebels who took control of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait and recently struck an Aramco facility in Riyadh. Oh, and on top of that, Reuters reports China just suspended fuel exports. Fun! Read More: https://www.jalopnik.com/2277511/strait-hormuz-u-s-official-admits-iran-targeting-abilities/

US forces fled over 1,000 km from Iranian borders, says top IRGC commander - A senior Iranian military adviser said the United States has withdrawn its forces more than 1,000 kilometers from Iran’s borders, describing the pullback as a direct result of Iran’s authority and the power of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Ground Force. Rear Admiral Ali Fadavi, a senior advisor to the IRGC commander-in-chief and former Navy commander, made the remarks in a televised interview on Sunday night. “The Americans fled and moved more than 1,000 kilometers away from our borders. This was not their choice; it was due to the authority of the Islamic Republic and the authority of the IRGC Ground Force,” Fadavi said. He stressed that for the first time, no American vessels are present in the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, the Sea of Oman, or even the northern Indian Ocean. Fadavi said the Strait of Hormuz has been under Iran’s control for many months and that the United States has failed to achieve any of its objectives in the war. “The fighters who stood against the world’s material superpowers thwarted all their goals. The enemy—the Great Satan America—has not achieved any of its objectives in this war,” he said. He noted that ship captains crossing the southern part of the Strait of Hormuz have formally objected to the route but are forced to pass due to insurance, financial, and liability concerns. The IRGC Navy has warned that any vessel traversing this route could be subject to Iranian naval action. “The IRGC Navy has informed the ships that if they pass through this route, their vessels may be targeted at any point,” Fadavi said. “The captains have officially stated they are forced to pass and would never choose this route if it were up to them.” He added that only three to four million barrels of oil per day are currently transiting an alternative route outside the area officially designated by Iran, a negligible amount compared to pre-war traffic. Addressing US military capabilities, Fadavi stated that Washington cannot assert sovereignty in the region without a physical naval presence. “The Americans must use their vessels because you cannot exercise full sovereignty with air power. You can bomb the region every day, but unless your forces have a physical presence, you cannot impose your will,” he said. He stressed that American vessels are “100 percent vulnerable” to IRGC forces and that past attempts to enter the Strait of Hormuz were met with attacks by the IRGC Navy and Aerospace Force. Fadavi said Iran has never targeted regional countries but has struck US bases hosted on their soil. “We did not hit Muslim countries. We hit bases that were at the disposal of Iran’s enemy—not just the enemy of Islam, but the enemy of humanity—and were located in regional countries,” he said. He called on regional states to stand up to the United States, citing Iraq’s insistence on the withdrawal of American forces and the recent US War Department announcement that its troops have left Iraq. Warning against ground invasion Asked about a potential US ground invasion, Fadavi said any such move would be met with a response that targets American interests wherever they are. “Any base belonging to the Americans, any vessel belonging to the Americans, will be targeted by the grace of God,” he said. He also dismissed US threats, saying Washington has failed in Afghanistan, Iraq, and in its Daesh project, and will fail again. He noted that the US military budget equals that of the entire world, yet Washington has failed to achieve its objectives due to the direct impact of the conflict on the global and American economies.

Top commander issues stark warning: Any new war on Iran will engulf everyone in its flames - Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces Major General Ali Abdollahi has warned that any new war against Iran will have dire consequences for all sides and will “engulf everyone in its flames.” In a message issued on Monday, Major General Ali Abdollahi said, “If a new war is launched against Iran, its flames will engulf everyone.” He also pointed to the US military presence in the region as a source of insecurity and economic problems, warning countries hosting US forces that regional instability would persist as long as the American military remains in the region. “Countries hosting the United States in the region should know that the main factor behind insecurity in the region and the emergence of economic problems is the presence of the terrorist US army in the region,” Abdollahi said. He also rejected recent claims that Iran’s nuclear program has entered a military phase, describing such allegations as “delusional” and an attempt to portray Iran as a threat. Abdollahi slammed Israel for possession of nuclear weapons, saying claims about Iran’s nuclear activities by a party possessing “several hundred nuclear warheads” were unacceptable and amounted to mocking international law. He also warned international organizations, particularly the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), against baseless statements concerning Iran’s nuclear facilities. “We warn international organizations, particularly the IAEA, to refrain from continuing to play the role of a wolf in sheep’s clothing and from making baseless statements about Iran’s nuclear facilities,” he said. Iran is a member of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, known as the NPT, and has accepted extensive IAEA inspections over the years. The country has also committed itself to a religious decree that bans the development of nuclear weapons and has repeatedly denied accusations by Western countries that it is working to build nuclear bombs. Israel has never been a member of the NPT and has always kept silent about reports it has an arsenal of around 300 nuclear bombs. Addressing US President Donald Trump, Abdollahi also said Iran is not waiting for the outcome of the upcoming US congressional elections, warning him against any anti-Iran move. He said that regardless of the election result, any US action against Iran, either directly or at Israel’s instigation, would trigger an immediate Iranian response. “If he himself, or at the provocation of the child-killing Zionist regime, takes action against the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran will immediately target US interests without limitation, with intensity and force and in a painful manner,” Abdollahi warned, referring to Iran’s response during the “Ramadan War.” Abdollahi said Iran was “stronger than ever” and fully prepared to confront any threat, regardless of its nature or scale. He further noted that previous wars against Iran had ended in failure for the United States and Israel, noting that the aggression had exposed deep weaknesses and instability within Israel. According to Abdollahi, Israel launched the 12-day war against Iran after miscalculating Iran’s strength and subsequently sought an end to the aggression after suffering “powerful, effective and heavy blows” from Iran’s armed forces. He warned that Israel would not be capable of confronting Iran in any future aggression, saying that if it initiated another war, Iran’s armed forces and people would respond forcefully.

Pezeshkian says negotiations with US are ‘meaningless’ Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian has dismissed negotiations with the United States as “meaningless,” saying Washington carries out an act of aggression against the Islamic Republic whenever the two sides engage in talks. “Our problem with the US is that every time we come to the negotiating table, war is immediately imposed upon us,” Pezeshkian said at a meeting with Armenia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Trade Ararat Mirzoyan on Monday. “So far, they have attacked us three times after talks, and this shows that they are not seeking dialogue,” he added. The president stressed that the Iranian nation opposes talks with Washington over its repeated violations of its commitments. “Negotiations with an enemy that engages every day in assassinations, sanctions, pressure, and threats, and that violates agreements, are meaningless. Our people do not accept such an approach either,” he said. Elsewhere in his remarks, Pezeshkian called for enhancing ties with Yerevan. “We must further expand relations between the two countries in the fields of trade, science, culture, and technology, and help each other in this endeavor,” he stated. For his part, Mirzoyan hailed the progress made in friendly relations between Iran and Armenia despite the sanctions. “At the international level, cooperation between the two countries is also proceeding well, and despite the sanctions, we are vigorously pursuing our engagements with Iran.” The minister stressed that his country is peace-loving and seeks to achieve peace, while acknowledging that this path is not easy. The US and Israel launched another round of aggression against Iran on February 28, some eight months after carrying out unprovoked attacks on the country. Iran swiftly retaliated by launching barrages of missiles and drones at the Israeli-occupied territories, as well as US bases and interests across the region. The United States has perpetrated numerous violations against Iranian territory since April 7, when US President Donald Trump announced a unilateral ceasefire in the latest bout of American-Israeli aggression targeting the Islamic Republic. The violations continued even after Washington and Tehran signed a Pakistan-mediated memorandum of understanding in June, whose first clause clearly mandates cessation of aggression on all fronts. Renewed US strikes have once again triggered Iranian retaliation.

Trump backed Iran into a corner. The regime isn’t blinking - The US-led blockade and sanctions against Iran are working. Their success could determine the next phase of the war. Iran’s remaining oil for sale is nearly exhausted. Its crude production has been cut in half. The regime’s primary source of revenue is drying up. Hyperinflation has left the economy in ruins. Meanwhile, the flow of oil from other Gulf nations through the Strait of Hormuz, over which Iran had once wielded considerable influence, has effectively returned to normal. But Iran shows no signs of folding yet. The regime isn’t willing to give any concessions on its nuclear program, and negotiations on freedom of transit through the Strait of Hormuz have repeatedly stalled. Why, when Iran’s government acknowledges its economy faces a historic catastrophe, is the regime refusing to give in? Iran has been here before. Five decades of operating successfully through punishing sanctions have taught the Iranian regime a thing or two about how to cope. Its brutal and ongoing crackdown on protests has quelled a public revolt. And the high cost of America’s ongoing operation has made the status quo politically toxic for Iran’s enemy. That’s why the regime may be in a far better position than it seems. Iran shipped zero oil from its ports in September. That marked the first month that Iran loaded no crude onto tankers since maritime data tracking service Kpler began monitoring Iranian exports in 2013. Iran’s last successful crude loading was August 25. Meanwhile, Iran is practically out of crude to sell. Oil outside the US blockade zone has plunged to 10 million barrels, down from 100 million in July, according to Kpler. If Iran continues to find buyers at its current rate, it could run out crude to sell by the end of October. At home, Iran isn’t faring much better. With nowhere to sell newly drilled oil, its onshore stockpiles are nearing all-time highs, reaching 70 million barrels, close to its pandemic peak, according to Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Kpler. Iranian oil production has fallen to half its prewar level – about 2 million barrels per day, just enough to support its domestic demand. US sanctions have taken a toll. Iran’s economy shrank at an annual rate of 10% between March and June, according to Iranian government data. Its annual inflation rate surged to 90% last month and has averaged 73% over the past year – the highest since World War II. The situation has become so dire that when Iranians get cash, they immediately spend it on necessities because their money will immediately lose value if they don’t, noted Adnan Mazarei, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. The government cannot finance itself, so it just prints money, exacerbating inflation. And sanctions have severely curtailed imports, leading to widespread factory closures and rising unemployment. Iran’s current economic situation is among the most dire in its history, acknowledged Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of the country’s Supreme National Security Council, according to a report in Iran’s semi-official Tasnim News Agency on Saturday. Still, Iran appears far from giving in. “The economy is doing very badly,” Mazarei said. “But there isn’t a mechanical point at which you can say the patient’s body temperature has reached a critical level and he’s going to pass away.” In part, Iran’s political system and ruthless crackdown on protest has given it some insulation from the economic destruction imposed by the blockade and sanctions. And Iran appears to be getting around some of those restrictions. “People are growing more miserable, but the regime has incredible patience and tolerance for the suffering of its people,” Mazarei noted. “And Iran has a long history of beating sanctions.”  Iran’s options for evading sanctions appear more limited than ever. The Trump administration’s Operation Economic Outcast has become so effective that some governments that had largely ignored US sanctions in the past have begun taking those restrictions extremely seriously.For example, dozens of Iranian oil tankers whose crew fear capture by the US and its Western allies have been left stranded. Anchored off the cost of Sri Lanka, they have been refused humanitarian aid despite multiple distress calls, according to Charlie Brown, senior adviser for United Against Nuclear Iran, a nonprofit that tracks and reports on Iranian sanctions violations. Those details were first reported in the Wall Street Journal.Yet Iran’s regime has developed sophisticated networks to combat and evade sanctions. Despite the tightening of the vice, this conflict appears no different: Iran’s lack of willingness to bend suggests sanctions evasion is still taking place, said Michelle Brouhard, head of policy and geopolitical risk at Kpler.“The Iranian regime is really good at managing their country without resources,” she said. “I don’t think Iran is at a tipping point. So they must be receiving funds from somewhere.”  Iran may be transporting oil over land to Khazakstan and Russia, or by water via the Caspian Sea, suggested Brown, who noted Iran has routinely disguised its exported oil as Iraqi, and it has transferred oil to other nations’ ships to get crude out of the strait. And the regime has trustees in many surrounding nations who secretively conduct transactions for the regime in the form of US dollars, cryptocurrency or other means to avoid detection, according to Brown.Among the most intriguing possibilities, Brouhard said, is that Gulf nations exporting oil are surreptitiously paying Iran fees in exchange for safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz – even as they’re secured by US military escorts. No hard evidence of such an arrangement exists, but Mazarei and Brown also said they heard rumblings that oil producers were delivering Iran a security toll to ensure safe passage.

US removes all Air Force bombers from UK base following new threat -The United States moved all of its long-range bombers stationed in the United Kingdom back to their American home bases on Sunday after an unspecified new threat, officials said. It comes days after the British government arrested a number of individuals in connection with an alleged Iranian plot to target the UK airbase where the planes had been stationed. “We can acknowledge now that all US bombers that were deployed to RAF Fairford have re-deployed to their home stations in the United States,” one official told CNN. The statement did not include details on why the planes were moved. Several media organizations reported that concerns about a drone attack ordered by Iran prompted the move. CNN has not independently confirmed that reporting. The source familiar called the latest threat a “real world incident.” It is unusual that the US military would move the bombers back to their home stations instead of deploying them to another base in the region, the official said. President Donald Trump also confirmed that a threat had prompted the move – though he did not specify what the threat was. “I think we can say that — I mean, they didn’t fly out by accident,” Trump said from the White House. “There were some threats, and rather than tempting the enemy, we’ll capture the enemy and beat the enemy. But why should we leave them there? So we moved them around a little bit.” Vice President JD Vance said Monday that the move was made “out of an abundance of caution,” suggesting it was a response to a potential threat from Iran even as he declined to detail the specific concerns. “I think that we’re going to be as careful as we possibly can be,” Vance told reporters. “We do feel with some confidence that the Iranians are, you know, they’re trying to do what the Iranian state has done for 49 years, which is engage in acts of terrorism against the United States and against a lot of other people as well.” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, meanwhile, downplayed the removal of the US bombers, saying he would not “directly tie” the planes’ redeployment to the alleged Iranian plot. “The only reason why you guys are focused on how many planes are at Fairford is because of the threat that happened last week. But it’s not unusual to see rotations happen and movement of assets to different parts of the world based on exercises, redeployments, people changing out and new people coming in, new planes coming in, old planes going out,” Rubio told reporters at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland on Monday. A Downing Street spokesperson said that the UK government would not comment on foreign nations’ military operations. Asked about safety concerns by residents living near the base, the spokesperson told reporters that the UK has “the tried and tested approaches to defend our bases around the country, but not just that, throughout the world.” The UK Ministry of Defense also declined to comment on the operations or capabilities of other nations. The Royal Air Force base at Fairford has been used to deploy US B-1 bombers involved in the war against Iran and is an operating location for US Global Strike Command, which is tasked with managing long-distance strikes. CNN national security analyst Alex Plitsas said it was likely several dozen bombers were stationed at Fairford, adding that it was unusual to move all the aircraft. “It speaks to the credibility and the seriousness of the threat overall to the base that we’re talking about,” he told Ben Hunte on CNN Newsroom. The relocation of the bombers comes amid the investigation into the alleged plot. British police on September 27 arrested five men on suspicion of terror and explosives offenses close to the airbase. The men – identified only as British nationals between the ages of 23 and 25 and from the London area – were quickly released on bail, with police confirming no explosives were found in three vans at the scene. Their release sparked criticism from Trump, who said “I wouldn’t have done that.” A 25-year-old British-Iranian dual national was also arrested on Thursday in connection with the alleged plot. He was also released on bail. On Tuesday, a 22-year-old British man was arrested on suspicion of terror offences as part of the police investigation. US intelligence had been tracking planning by Iranian groups to target US assets at the airbase for weeks before the initial arrests of the five on suspected terrorism charges, according to multiple sources familiar. The planning involved efforts to use intermediaries to recruit local criminal groups to carry out an attack, according to one of the sources and another person briefed on the matter. CNN was unable to learn whether the men who have been arrested were specifically known to authorities prior to last weekend; one of the sources said the Iranian planning was being tracked at a higher level. British Prime Minister Andy Burnham said last week there are “strong indications” Iran was involved in the incident. “We will say more in due course, but we can confirm our belief that we believe Iran to have played a part,” he told the BBC on Sept 30.   Burnham’s remarks appeared to support the US’ assessment that the incident involved a foreign actor. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said “the hands of a foreign actor” were involved in the alleged plot but declined to provide details in an interview with Fox News last week.

Pentagon Confirms the US Has Withdrawn All Bombers From UK Air Base - -The Pentagon has confirmed that the US has withdrawn all of its bombers from a UK air base following a security incident near the base last month.A Pentagon spokesperson told CBS News that all US bombers have been withdrawn from RAF Fairford, from which the US has launched bombing missions against Iran, and returned to their home bases in the US. “US Air Force bombers routinely operate around the world to support global force readiness and operational requirements,” the spokesperson said. “The Airmen that operate America’s bomber force, including B-1s, B-2s, and B-52s, remain ready to deliver precision global strike capabilities — including through operations that launch and recover from the continental United States — anywhere, anytime.” In comments on the withdrawal, Secretary of State Marco Rubio denied that it was related to the arrest of five British men near the base last month. A sixth man, a dual UK-Iranian citizen, was arrested last week, though they have all been released on bail. “The Department of War is constantly reallocating resources where they need to be. There’s regular rotations that happen as well,” Rubio told reporters on Monday. “We’ve documented what happened last week. I wouldn’t directly tie that to the move that was made.” Later in the day, Trump said that the bombers were pulled from the base due to a “threat” that he claimed was linked to Iran. “We had an idea that there might be a threat, and why would I leave them there? It costs very little money to move them,” he told reporters. “So we had a threat, and if we’re going to be threatened, we just move them, and that sort of alleviates that. And we actually know the people that made the threat.” While the men were arrested on suspicion of “terrorism” over a suspected bomb plot, no explosives were found in vans that were linked to them. British Prime Minister Andy Burnham has said the British government has found “strong indications” that Iran was involved in the alleged plot, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed that he passed along intelligence of a potential Iranian attack inside the country, though Tehran has denied any involvement.

Newly obtained footage shows Iran attack on major US post in Kuwait — New videos obtained exclusively by CBS News show Iranian attacks on a major U.S. military base in Kuwait as the war with Iran kicked off seven months ago. American forces faced ballistic missiles, drones and what witnesses described as Iranian F-5 fighter jets. The footage obtained by CBS News was recorded by a person stationed on the ground at Camp Buehring, and captures the moments of impact and their explosive aftermath. Damage to buildings and military equipment can also be seen in the videos. The attacks on Camp Buehring offer a window into the strain Iranian attacks placed on American forces during the opening days of the war. CBS News has learned that soldiers defending the base ran critically low on .50-caliber ammunition as some soldiers were repositioned into the Udari Desert in Kuwait. Two soldiers were injured by lightning there in late April, according to U.S. officials with knowledge of the matter. Contacted by CBS News, U.S. Central Command, the primary unit which oversees American military operations across the Middle East, declined to comment. The Pentagon did not comment, but pointed back to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's comments on March 4 regarding the removal of U.S. troops from bases and the employment of defensive measures. "As we built up offensive combat power, we moved the vast majority of American troops — over 90% of Americans that were on our bases — what we say off the X, out of the range of Iranian fire," Hegseth told reporters in March. Camp Buehring, or CBKU, sits about 25 miles from the Iraqi border and has for more than two decades served as a major staging ground for American forces deploying across the Middle East. CBS News authenticated the videos using metadata embedded in the files and compared the footage to other photographs showing damage to the base. Ahead of the war, sources said most of the roughly 7,000 troops there were moved elsewhere — as were the majority of U.S. forces in Kuwait — as a part of the Pentagon's "get off the X" plan, military shorthand for moving away from a position vulnerable to attack. Once the war started, Iranian attacks, some originating from Iraq, repeatedly threatened the installation. Missiles and drones forced soldiers into bunkers. Three U.S. service members told CBS News that Iranian F-5 fighter jets were also used during the attacks, a detail first reported in April by NBC News. "They ran so close to us I could see their helmets," the eyewitness described. "They came in, they hit us, and then took off." While most of the U.S. service members were moved off of Camp Buehring, a tranche of more than 100 soldiers stayed behind. The service members feared the isolated base was ill-equipped to handle a mass-casualty event if the attacks continued. "They hit us bad," the source told CBS News on condition of anonymity because of the military's strict media restrictions. "It was horrible. There were a lot of brave guys who stayed to fight there — and people at home don't know what happened. We had to abandon the base." A senior Army official working in logistics, managing operations from another post in Kuwait, confirmed to CBS News there were concerns about the availability of .50 caliber ammunition and other "exquisite" munitions like Patriot missile batteries. The decision ultimately was to leave. Service members packed up, loading their vehicles with whatever equipment they could and drove at night deep into the Kuwaiti desert. Their remote locations would emerge as forward operating bases, or "FOBs," where the soldiers would remain indefinitely. No one was killed by enemy fire at Camp Buehring or at the FOBs, but several were injured, including two soldiers who were struck by lightning in desert sandstorms. One soldier suffered burns after the direct strike while the other suffered a ruptured eardrum, according to U.S. officials with knowledge of the matter. Before the lightning strike, Army leaders had been trying to move the troops out of the area, but were not able to do so quickly enough. In May, the soldiers left the FOBs for Camp Arifjan, and then relocated to other positions both in and out of the Middle East. "CBKU got demolished," the source added. "They need to do an investigation. How come no one came to reinforce us?" The Defense Department's inspector general last month released a report on the war with Iran that revealed "equipment losses" worth up to $3.7 billion — including nearly 60 aircraft. On Monday, the Congressional Research Service, which provides nonpartisan analysis to members of Congress, reported that 81 fixed or rotary-wing aircraft including drone assets had been lost or damaged by Iran since February, according to news reports and statements from the Defense Department.   In a first-of-its-kind mandatory report to Congress, the inspector general added that U.S. Central Command had reported Iranian strikes at U.S. bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman and Jordan.  Although strikes were mentioned in the report, pictures and videos of any impact zones have been extremely limited. Beyond Camp Buehring, CBS News earlier obtained exclusive photos of damage at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia and Camp Arifjan in Kuwait.  CBS News has also reported extensively on the deadliest attack of the war against U.S. troops at the Port of Shuaiba, which killed six American service members.

Report Details 81 US Aircraft Lost or Damaged in Iran War - A new report from the Congressional Research Service has found that at least 81 US military aircraft have been damaged or lost in the Iran war since it was launched by the US and Israel on February 28.The report’s authors said the tally was compiled from statements by the Pentagon, US Central Command, the Pentagon Inspector General, and news reports, and that the “number of aircraft may remain subject to revision due to multiple factors.” The CRS published a similar report in May that put the number of aircraft damaged or lost at 42.The list from the new report includes both unmanned and manned aircraft that were damaged or destroyed by Iranian attacks on US bases, shot down or damaged by Iranian fire, or lost in accidents, friendly-fire incidents, or other unspecified incidents. The majority were MQ-9 Reaper drones, which are extremely vulnerable to air defenses. Of the 81 aircraft listed in the report, 45 were MQ-9s.The full list includes:

• 45 MQ-9 Reapers
• 12 F-15E Strike Eagles
• 7 KC-135 Stratotankers
• 4 AH-6 Little Birds
• 3 MQ-1 drones
• 2 A-10 Thunderbolt IIs
• 2 MC-130J Commando IIs
• 1 F-35A Lightning II
• 1 E-3 Sentry
• 1 HH-60W Jolly Green II
• 1 MQ-4C Triton
• 1 AH-64 Apache
• 1 MH-60 Sea Hawk

The report said that in September, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated the cost of equipment losses as of August 1 at between $1.9 billion and $3.3 billion, but the actual cost to replace the aircraft would be much higher. The Washington Times estimated that, based on calculations using federal unit costs for 73 of the 81 aircraft, replacing them would cost $5.1 billion.

Report: Trump Might Bomb Iran Before Midterms - - The White House has asked the Pentagon to develop plans for attacks on Iran that could be carried out before midterm elections are held on November 3, according to a report from The Atlantic.  Unnamed Trump administration officials told the outlet that the planning underscores how much Trump wants to reduce gas prices and show some progress in the conflict, but any US attacks would lead to Iranian retaliation and would further exacerbate the global energy crisis.Despite the obvious risk of repercussions, a Republican source told The Atlantic that the potential strikes would “make the president look like he got a win and that gas prices would start going down.” The report said the administration is still debating the scope of potential strikes and whether they will be carried out before the midterms.NBC News also reported that the administration was considering strikes on Iran ahead of the midterms and that the military drew up potential attack plans following a meeting between Trump’s national security officials at Camp David, Maryland, last week. They also discussed the Saudi war in Yemen, which the US is supporting by providing intelligence and refueling Saudi warplanes.Axios carried a similar report that said the Pentagon had instructed US Central Command several days ago to conclude preparations for resuming “major combat operations” in Iran, and that the strikes could start before the US midterms and possibly before Israel’s elections, which are scheduled for October 27.Unlike Trump and the Republicans, Netanyahu and his allies would likely benefit politically from a renewed full-scale war with Iran. The Axios report said that if major combat operations resume, they will likely involve both the US and Israel striking Iran, and the attacks are expected to include massive bombing of Iranian energy, infrastructure, and nuclear targets.Trump has made clear that he has been considering a massive escalation of the Iran war after the midterms, recently saying that the US will win the war “right after the election.” He has also continued to threaten the complete destruction of Iran, saying at the UN General Assembly last month that he was considering whether to “annihilate the Islamic Republic” and “drive them into hell.”

Pentagon Prepares 'Options' For Trump To Strike Iran Before Midterms; Tanker Attacked Off Qatar - The Atlantic is reporting Wednesday afternoon that the Pentagon is preparing strike options for the Commander-in-Chief to consider, and that Trump may actually pull the trigger before the midterm elections - though the report emphasizes that the decision is still being debated: After months of on-again, off-again fighting, the United States hasn’t struck Iran in several weeks. The stretch of relative tranquility is coinciding with the final phase of the midterm-election campaign, and the assumption has been that President Trump will want to keep it going through November 3 so as not to remind voters of an unpopular war that is dragging Republican candidates down nationwide. But that may not be what happens. The White House has asked the Pentagon to develop strike options against Iranian targets that could be exercised ahead of the midterms, according to two administration officials. The planning underscores just how much the president wants to reduce gas prices and demonstrate progress in the conflict before the vote, administration officials told us.And yet a renewed outbreak of direct bombing would likely actually serve to do the opposite, given oil prices have tended to shoot up on headlines of major direct escalation. Reports out of Iran confirmed earlier Wednesday that negotiations are 'stalemated' - also as the Iranians have ramped up targeting tankers with drones in the Strait of Hormuz over the last week. One peculiar and notable line from The Atlantic report is that Trump and the Republicans are looking for "some sort of victory" in a war that they promised would be swift and decisive, but instead has drifted into a seven-month quagmire:  The plans are being developed by U.S. Central Command, which is coordinating the war effort, a U.S. official told us. Even the plans’ advocates acknowledge that limited strikes would not, by themselves, bring Iran to the negotiating table, restore safe travel through the Strait of Hormuz, or lower gas prices before Election Day. But those in favor believe that further action after months of uneasy peace could allow Trump to demonstrate strength and potentially declare some sort of victory, giving Republicans much-needed momentum heading into the election.   Tehran has constantly signaled its military is at the 'ready' and that it is continuing to build up its ballistic missile arsenal, even as its exports have dropped dramatically due to the US naval blockade. Meanwhile... Wednesdays (10/7): A tanker was hit by "multiple projectiles" about 51 nautical miles north of Qatar. UKMTO reports that an oil tanker has bene struck by multiple projectiles 51 nautical miles north of Madinat ash Shamal, Qatar. Casualties have been reported among the crew and authorities are investigating.

Trump Says He Won't Bomb Iran Before Midterms - - President Trump said in a post on Truth Social on Thursday that he didn’t intend to launch strikes against Iran prior to the US midterm elections that will be held on November 3, comments that came after multiple media reports said he was considering bombing the country before the vote.Trump claimed in the post that the US was having “productive discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran” and said that the US “will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections.”The post is seen as an effort to cool markets, as oil prices spiked upon the news of potential US attacks on Iran. The president has also previously put out a similar message before a major escalation against Iran.Back in June 2025, hours before Israeli warplanes began US-backed strikes against Iran to start what became known as the 12-Day War, the president wrote on Truth Social that the US remained “committed to a Diplomatic Resolution to the Iran Nuclear Issue” and said that his “entire Administration has been directed to negotiate with Iran.”Trump also claimed in his post on Thursday that “record numbers of oil” were flowing through the Strait of Hormuz and that 22 million barrels had passed through in one night, but while oil has been moving through the strait, the estimates put it nowhere near that number, and Iran has dramatically ramped up attacks on tankers in the area. While Iranian officials say they’re still open to diplomacy with the US, they’re also making clear that they’re prepared for another round of US strikes.“We presented our plan, which was referred to as the seven-day plan, and heard the views of the Americans in response. We are now reviewing those views, and I think we will respond within the next few days,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi said on Thursday when discussing the indirect negotiations with the US.“But if they once again move toward military solutions, we are more prepared than before and will take whatever measures are necessary to defend ourselves,” he added.

Iran Says More Tankers Struck By Mines, After Trump Declared He Won't Bomb Before Midterms - In late night hours (Tehran time), Iranian state media has announced more attacks on ships in the southern part of the Strait of Hormuz. According to Fars: Military sources shows that several heavy explosions occurred minutes ago in the southern passage of the Strait of Hormuz, which was caused by violating oil tankers hitting mines spread in the area from the sea; Fars reports. At the same time Iran's President Pezeshkian stated Thursday that negotiations with the US are not completely dead yet. "We exchanged proposals with America through intermediaries and introduced some amendments," he said. And importantly, "despite US attacks, we never left the negotiating table," he said. "We are currently compiling proposals, and after the final text is prepared, we will review it through mediators and convey all proposals." Meanwhile, more of these piecemeal reports and claims: US military has drafted options for three days of strikes as President Trump hesitates, according to NYT. President Trump just issued a new Truth Social Post Thursday just after noon time (eastern), wherein he declared "we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections" in November. Oil dropped on the statement (though is still up on the day)...The full Trump post below, wherein Trump also claims that active discussions with the Iranians are still happening, and that oil is "flowing in record numbers"... Quick Iranian rection: U.S. and Israeli officials say Iranian leaders are deeply suspicious of Trump's statements. The officials said Iranian leaders want to avoid a third surprise attack, reports Axios. To recall, The Atlantic reported late Wednesday that the Pentagon is preparing strike options for the Commander-in-Chief to consider, and that Trump may actually pull the trigger before the midterm elections - though the report emphasizes that the decision was still being debated: After months of on-again, off-again fighting, the United States hasn’t struck Iran in several weeks. The stretch of relative tranquility is coinciding with the final phase of the midterm-election campaign, and the assumption has been that President Trump will want to keep it going through November 3 so as not to remind voters of an unpopular war that is dragging Republican candidates down nationwide. But that may not be what happens. The White House has asked the Pentagon to develop strike options against Iranian targets that could be exercised ahead of the midterms, according to two administration officials. The planning underscores just how much the president wants to reduce gas prices and demonstrate progress in the conflict before the vote, administration officials told us. And yet a renewed outbreak of direct bombing would likely actually serve to do the opposite, given oil prices have tended to shoot up on headlines of major direct escalation.

Trump doubles down on California comments: ‘Let them hit San Diego, let them hit Los Angeles’ --President Trump doubled down on his comments suggesting Iran could hit Los Angeles and San Diego during a rally in Texas on Wednesday, adding that the U.S. would not let such a scenario play out. “You want to see trauma? You want to see problems? And I said it the other day, let them hit a missile into San Diego or Los Angeles on the way. You want to see a horror show? Let them hit San Diego. Let them hit Los Angeles,” Trump said, speaking at a campaign rally in San Antonio. “You want to see some bad things happen? You want see a country in free fall? We’re not going to let that happen,” he continued. California leaders lashed out at Trump after he suggested at a rally in Nebraska on Monday that Iran could “take out” Los Angeles and San Diego. The state’s Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) told The Hill on Tuesday that Trump was “mentally ill” and called for the 25th Amendment to be invoked. Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass (D) called the comments “dangerous and could potentially compromise our safety,” while San Diego Mayor Todd Gloria (D) said in a statement the city was “not collateral damage.” However, the White House pushed back fiercely against the characterization of the comments. “The media freakout over President Trump’s comments is not rooted in reality,” White House communications director Steven Cheung wrote Tuesday on the social platform X. “He was clearly stating U.S. cities would have been threatened if a nuclear Iran hadn’t been stopped. America is safer because of the President. Iran has no nuclear, no navy, no air force, and no money,” he said.

Vance Suggests US Would Accept Iran Reducing Uranium Enrichment, Something Tehran Offered Before War - Vice President JD Vance suggested in an interview with Reuters that the Trump administration could accept a deal with Iran that would see the country reduce its nuclear enrichment levels, not end its enrichment program altogether, something Tehran was offering to do before the war. “If you don’t want a nuclear weapon, then why do you need 60% enriched fuel? And if you want to show commitment to not ​building a nuclear weapon, don’t build highly enriched fuel. That’s a very basic threshold issue,” Vance said.  “I think if they want to show a commitment to not building a nuclear weapon, they would do something meaningful on ​their enrichment capacity,” the US vice president added.Before the war, Iran said it was willing to reduce enrichment levels, and media reports said it was willing to bring them back down to 3.67%, the levels agreed upon under the 2015 nuclear deal, known as the JCPOA. Iran was also reportedly willing to pause its enrichment program for a number of years and had said publicly it would dilute its stockpile of uranium enriched at 60%, but the US was demanding a permanent end to its enrichment program.   The two sides were still engaged in negotiations when the US and Israel launched a surprise attack on Iran on February 28. The opening attacks included the bombing of an elementary school, which killed at least 120 children, and the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed alongside several members of his family, including his 14-month-old granddaughter.    An unnamed Iranian official told Reuters that there have been no recent negotiations regarding Iran’s nuclear program, and that Washington must meet Tehran’s other conditions before they start. Iranian officials have maintained that the US must end its blockade of Iranian ports, lift some sanctions on Iran, and release frozen Iranian funds before the Strait of Hormuz is fully opened, conditions the US previously agreed to under the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed in June. The Iranian official said that key to any nuclear deal will be the US recognizing Iran’s right to enrich uranium, something he said Iran will not show “flexibility on in any way.” But the official said details of enrichment can be discussed later, suggesting Tehran is still willing to negotiate a deal that would reduce its enrichment levels.

US Resumes Refueling Saudi Fighter Jets for Yemen War After Eight Years - The US is refueling Saudi fighter jets as part of its support for Riyadh’s war in Yemen, a US official has told Al Jazeera, marking an escalation of US involvement in the conflict.The US refueling of Saudi warplanes was one of the most controversial aspects of US involvement in the war in Yemen after it began in 2015, as the Saudi-led coalition fighting against Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthis, was notorious for bombing civilian targets. The first Trump administration ended the practice of refueling Saudi jets involved in the war in Yemen in November 2018, several months after Saudi Arabia bombed a school bus in the Saada province of northern Yemen, killing at least 40 children, a strike that was carried out with a US-supplied bomb. At the time, the Trump administration didn’t link ending the refueling to the civilian casualties since it continued supporting the war in other ways, but framed the move as a Saudi decision to “use the Coalition’s own military capabilities to conduct inflight refueling in support of its operations in Yemen.”However, the move was really seen as an effort to pre-empt action from Congress, as lawmakers were threatening to take action over the refueling amid outrage over the Saudi killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, which occurred in October of 2018. The following year, both the House and Senate passed a War Powers Resolution to end US intelligence and other support for the Saudi war, but President Trump vetoed the legislation.After the first Trump administration stopped refueling Saudi warplanes, Congress codified the policy into US law, repeatedly prohibiting the refueling of aircraft involved in the war in Yemen through amendments in successive National Defense Authorization Acts. The prohibition was last included in the 2024 NDAA, which extended the ban for one year, meaning it’s not currently in effect. The news that the US has resumed refueling Saudi jets comes as Saudi-backed forces have announced a major offensive meant to reverse recent gains made by Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthis, and Saudi Arabia has escalated airstrikes, which are killing an increasing number of civilians.  Sources told The New York Times that, on top of refueling Saudi warplanes, the US also has more than 200 intelligence and military analysts assisting the Saudi government in command centers inside the kingdom, helping to analyze and select targets in Yemen. So far, the US has refrained from launching direct airstrikes in Yemen as a US-Ansar Allah ceasefire reached in May 2025 appears to remain in effect.

US sanctions global court as judge awarded Nobel Peace Prize - - Pause Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced Friday that the U.S. is imposing full blocking sanctions against the International Criminal Court (ICC), sharply escalating its fight against the global judicial body over criticism that it’s unjustly pursuing war crimes cases against Israel, American service members and the Trump administration. The sanctions announcement coincided with a former ICC judge, Navi Pillay, being awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for her contributions to enlarging the scope and impact of international law. Pillay recently oversaw a United Nations report that concluded that Israel committed genocide in Gaza. Rubio, in a video message, accused “globalist experts an ocean away” of wanting “more power, and they want it at the expense of our sovereignty as a nation.” “We will ban transactions with this rogue court, cutting off their resources and crippling their ability to operate against us,” Rubio said, describing the sanctions. “Because our message is clear: the United States and the American people are not subject to the jurisdiction of this fake ICC.” The U.S. sanctions likely have the consequence of blocking any American or U.S. business from working with the court, making transactions involving banking, technology transfers, commercial services and professional engagement punishable. As a result of the sanctions, the U.S. can seize any property or interests of the ICC that are in the U.S., or any ICC assets that are in possession or control by a U.S. person. The ICC rejected the U.S. sanctions in a statement, calling them an unprecedented attack on an international judicial institution. ICC President Tomoko Akane, who was sanctioned by the Trump administration in August, said the court will not halt its work investigating and prosecuting genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes and the crime of aggression. “The Court will continue to fully discharge its mandate, with independence and impartiality, acting only on the basis of the law and the evidence, for the sake of the countless victims of grave crimes,” she said. The ICC called on its member states to take on considerable efforts “to ensure the continuity and resilience of its activities.” “No one should be punished for serving the cause of justice. History will judge this moment,” the ICC statement read. “Future generations, and above all the victims of mass atrocities, will ask how we responded when an institution created to protect them came under attack. They will ask whether the Court held firm and whether the international community defended the principles it proclaimed or allowed them to be abandoned under pressure.” The Treasury Department is issuing a six-month general license so people and entities can wind down transactions with the ICC. This includes a 180-day general license allowing activity involving maintenance of operations; certain IT-related activities, including cloud and software services; activity related to the ICC pension plan; and authorizing certain activity related to ICC detainees. Rubio called on the ICC member states, countries that have signed the Rome Statute that created the court and established its jurisdiction, to follow America’s lead. “Either the ICC will end its threats, or we will end the ICC,” he said. “We expect our allies, many of whom are part of the ICC and that rely on American service members for their defense, to rein in this rogue court.”

Lithuania Moves To Lift Nuclear Weapons Ban as Trump Considers Permanent US Base -   Lithuania’s parliament on Tuesday took the first step toward lifting a ban on the deployment of nuclear weapons in its territory, a move that comes after President Trump said he’s considering establishing a permanent US military base in the country.One hundred and six members of Lithuania’s 141-seat unicameral parliament, the Seimas, voted to advance a constitutional amendment that would repeal a ban on weapons of mass destruction and foreign military bases in Lithuania.A second vote is needed to advance the amendment, and that will be held on January 12, 2027. At least 94 members of the Seimas must support it for the change to be made.Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda announced in July that he was initiating an amendment to repeal the ban, outlined in Article 137 of the Lithuanian Constitution, and said the idea has “practically unanimous” support in the Seimas.Nauseda and other proponents of repealing the ban say it’s needed for Lithuania to fully participate in NATO’s “nuclear deterrence.” The move will open up Lithuania to potentially host US nuclear weapons under NATO’s nuclear sharing program, under which the US has nukes deployed in Germany, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Turkey.Lithuania’s move comes after Finland, which, like Lithuania, shares a border with Russia, lifted its prohibition on nuclear weapons. Russia strongly condemned both moves and has warned it will respond.“Neither of these developments will contribute to stability and predictability on the European continent,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday, referring to Lithuania’s parliament voting to repeal both the ban on nuclear weapons and foreign military bases.“On the contrary, they will, to our regret, mark yet another significant escalation of tensions. As for Russia, of course, Moscow will be forced to take all necessary measures to guarantee its own security,” Peskov added.The US has troops deployed in Lithuania on a rotational basis but doesn’t have a permanent base in the country, something Lithuanian Prime Minister Mindaugas Sinkevičius has said the country is willing to fund. When asked about the proposal, President Trump said he would consider it. “They’re friends of mine; they’re great people, so we’ll certainly look at it. They are great people,” Trump said. “I know so many people in that country; they’re great people.”

Susie Wiles's daughter pictured with Republika Srpska interior minister - The daughter of White House chief of staff Susie Wiles recently traveled to Republika Srpska, a small self-governing territory in Bosnia and Herzegovina led by a pro-Russian political party, as an image from her visit circulates online. Katie Wiles, a partner at Continental Strategy, shared photos to social media which appeared to show her holding a rifle while standing next to Željko Budimir, the interior minister of Republika Srpska, according to CBS News. Wiles wrote, “mostly work + some serious fun,” in the post’s caption. The images were shared by Albanian American activist Evi Kokalari and were reportedly taken in mid-August during a business trip for another client of Continental Strategy. “Katie Wiles visited the country in mid-August for two days with a U.S.-based company who was invited to do a feasibility study in the region,” a spokesperson said, according to CBS News. “Wiles provides strategic communications support to this US company and has done so for over two years. Wiles has not spoken with any United States Government official regarding Srpska.” Budimir is a close ally of Milorad Dodik, a pro-Russian politician and former Republika Srpska president, according to CBS News. A source from Continental Strategy told The Hill that there were two tracks of work involving Republika Srpska at the company. The first involved Alex Garcia, a registered foreign agent and partner at the firm, who attended the country’s election on Oct. 4, but no other members of the team were present. Garcia was the only person at Continental Strategy who has interacted with the U.S. government regarding Republika Srpska, in accordance with Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA) requirements, according to a source from Continental Strategy. Wiles’s mid-August trip was with a U.S. company to do a feasibility study within the Balkans where she provided strategic communications to support operations, adding that she has not spoken with a U.S. official about Republika Srpska affairs. This comes after The New York Times reported Tuesday that Chris LaCivita and James Blair, two heads leading President Trump’s midterm advertising campaign, were reportedly paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to advise on voting issues in Republicka Srpska. While The New York Times noted Blair and LaCivita were paid by the government and not the political party behind the government, the news outlet wrote that for all intents and purposes work for the government and the party are the same thing.

US To Deploy Anti-Ship Missile System To Japanese Island Near Taiwan -   The US military will deploy an anti-ship missile system to Japan’s westernmost island of Yonaguni, which lies just 68 miles east of Taiwan, an unprecedented move that will ratchet up tensions with China.US Marines will deploy with the Navy-Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System, or NMESIS, as part of Keen Sword, the largest joint US-Japanese biennial military exercise.The NMESIS has a range of about 115 miles, putting it within striking range of vessels patrolling the eastern coast of Taiwan. According to The South China Morning Post, China has stepped up coast guard and naval activity in the area in response to maritime boundary talks announced in May between Japan and the Philippines. Song Zhongping, a Chinese military expert, told China’s Global Times that the deployment increases the risk of miscalculation between the US and China and that Beijing may respond by conducting its own military drills in the area.The Okinawa Defense Bureau first disclosed the deployment on October 1, and it will also include a Marine Air Defense Integrated System, or Maidas, a ground-based air defense system also used by the Marine Corps’ littoral force.The first Marine Littoral Regiment was established in 2022 as part of the Marine Corps’ Force Design strategy, which is explicitly focused on preparing for a potential conflict with China. The idea was to create mobile Marine units equipped with anti-ship missiles and other weapons that can rapidly deploy along what is known as the First Island Chain, a string of archipelagos stretching from Japan’s southern islands through Taiwan and the Philippines and into the southern South China Sea.

"You've Got Mail": China Got Its Hands On F-35 Stealth Parts Because A UPS Worker Missed An Email  Forget hackers, honey traps and photon-counting lasers. China's latest haul of F-35 secrets apparently came courtesy of an unread email. According to a new Bloomberg report, the F-35 cockpit canopy and weapons-bay door that ended up in Beijing's possession were routed through Hong Kong because a United Parcel Service (UPS) employee missed an email warning not to send the shipment through Hong Kong. The email, from freight forwarder DSV (working on behalf of Lockheed Martin ), said the parts must not transit certain countries under the US International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR), the rules designed precisely to keep American weapons tech away from American adversaries.Regular readers will recall that we have been following this saga since it first went "MIA" on the way to Hong Kong last month. What started as a mysterious detour has now been traced to the most mundane failure imaginable. Below we lay out what the Pentagon just told Congress, why the parts matter more than anyone in an official capacity is willing to admit, and what it means for UPS, which was already the market's least favorite parcel name.The new details were laid out by Pentagon officials on Sept. 29 in a roughly hour-long closed-door meeting with staff from the House Foreign Affairs and Armed Services committees, according to a person briefed on the incident. Here's the sequence, per Bloomberg:

• The shipment, from an Australian F-35A and bound for the US "for possible repair or disposal," was supposed to travel to San Francisco via South Korea and Taiwan, both US defense partners.
• It was late leaving Australia, and so it was "mistakenly routed via Hong Kong in an effort to speed up delivery."
• DSV had sent the ITAR email "as required by US regulations," but it "may have been sent through a different IT system than the one used by the UPS agent."

In other words, an ITAR-controlled stealth component was rerouted through Chinese jurisdiction to save a few days, because the warning not to do exactly that was sitting in the wrong inbox. Somewhere a compliance officer is quietly updating the "lessons learned" slide deck.  And so, a shipment that was "late" in May is now, five months later, in Beijing. Which is one way to fix a delivery delay.  Hong Kong, for those keeping score, is not some neutral way station: Washington has long since stopped treating the territory separately from mainland China under US export controls, which is precisely why the DSV email existed in the first place. From day one, the official line has been to shrug. The Pentagon called the parts "unserviceable." Lockheed's Australian arm said they were "unserviceable and deemed low risk for exploitation." Australia's defense minister Richard Marles insisted that "we're not talking about sensitive equipment here or sensitive parts." US Transportation Command took the time to issue a statement that "it was not involved in the transportation or coordination of the shipment in question." Very reassuring. The problem is what the parts actually are. As Bloomberg first reported on Sept 23, both the canopy and the weapons-bay door were coated with radar-absorbing material that enhances stealth, and the Chinese government took possession of them and has not given them back. We flagged it in real time:

US Coast Guard Says It Intercepted Ship Carrying Fuel To Cuba as US Continues Enforcing Ramped-Up Blockade - The US Coast Guard said Friday that its forces intercepted a ship that was attempting to bring fuel to Cuba, as the US continues to enforce a ramped-up oil embargo on the country, which has caused a devastating humanitarian crisis.The Coast Guard said that the incident occurred in early September, when a “Coast Guard tactical team” boarded the M/V Grace, a 300-foot-long container ship, in the Caribbean Sea.  The Coast Guard said it then escorted the ship to Mexico, where Mexican authorities found fuel stored in the ship’s ballast tanks. It said that earlier in the summer, US Coast Guard personnel stopped and boarded the M/V Jaira Provider, another vessel it accused of carrying fuel bound for Cuba. The Trump administration ramped up the oil embargo on Cuba after it attacked Venezuela to abduct President Nicolas Maduro in January, which gave the US the power to cut off Venezuelan oil shipments to the island nation. The US also pressured Mexico to end its oil exports to Cuba.The embargo has caused daily blackouts, which have been detrimental to the civilian population of Cuba. Cuban doctors told The New York Times back in March that patients were dying due to the US blockade, as the conditions at hospitals caused by the fuel shortages were leading to preventable deaths.The escalated blockade has come with threats and preparations for military action against Cuba. CBS News recently reported that the US Military has been working to establish “the groundwork for potential action around Cuba.”

US Military Executes Four People in Latest Strike on Alleged Drug-Running Boat in the Caribbean - - US Southern Command said in a statement on Sunday night that its forces bombed another alleged drug-running boat in the Caribbean and killed at least four people, as the Trump administration continues to conduct extrajudicial executions at sea. “On October 4, under the direction of US Southern Command, Joint Task Force Western Hemisphere executed a lethal, kinetic strike on a go-fast vessel operating along established narco-trafficking routes in the Caribbean,” SOUTHCOM said. Video of the strike released by SOUTHCOM. The command offered no evidence to back up its claim that the small boat was carrying drugs, something the Pentagon has never done since the bombing campaign began in September 2025. The statement labeled the four people who were killed as “narco-terrorists,” a term the administration has employed in its attempts to justify executing people for an alleged crime that doesn’t receive the death penalty in the US.The attack brings the total number of people killed in the bombing campaign since it started to at least 238, according to a count from The Intercept, which has noted that all of the dead are civilians.Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) has introduced a resolution to impeach US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth for a number of reasons, including his role in the boat strike campaign, which the articles filed by Massie describe as “extrajudicial killings.” Massie’s resolution states that by “subjecting persons merely suspected of criminal conduct to lethal military force without judicial process, without Congressional authorization, and without establishing a lawful basis for treating such persons or vessels as military targets, Secretary Hegseth arrogated to himself and the Executive Branch the roles of judge, jury, and executioner and asserted a unilateral power to determine who may live and who may die.”

How the Iran war exposed the US Navy’s chronic problems – podcast & related video -The US Navy is facing increasingly long deployments as depleted interceptor stockpiles as aircraft carriers struggle to cope with Donald Trump’s eight-month Iran war and other commitments. Is America overstretched at sea? On today’s episode of Iran: the Latest, Roland Oliphant is joined by RUSI naval warfare experts Dr. Sidharth Kaushal and Professor Kevin Rowlands to discuss the chronic problems within the US Navy, from an ageing carrier fleet to the lack of regular maintenance. They discuss why the Strait of Hormuz has been so hard to resolve militarily and how much longer Trump can continue to fight Iran.    Plus, in Yemen, the Iran-backed Houthis have fired ballistic missiles at Saudi airportsas the Riyadh-backed government forces recapture the key Red Sea port of Mocha as part of a major push. What does this latest news mean for the Bab al-Mandeb chokepoint? Listen to Iran: The Latest: YOUTUBE

Pentagon Raises Combat Pay for the First Time Since 2002 as Iran War Continues -  The Pentagon has raised combat pay for US troops for the first time since 2002, Task & Purpose has reported, as the Iran war continues and another round of escalation between the US and Iran appears to be coming.Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell announced the pay increase last week. “Our troops in harm’s way deserve compensation that reflects their risk. For the first time in over two decades, the Department of War is increasing Hostile Fire Pay and Imminent Danger Pay,” he wrote on X. Parnell said that Hostile Fire Pay, which troops can receive if their base or unit comes under enemy fire, has been increased to $450 per month, double the previous amount. Imminent Danger Pay, provided to troops “subject to the threat of physical harm or imminent danger,” has increased to a maximum of $275 per month, up $50 from the previous rate. US troops can receive either Hostile Fire Pay or Imminent Danger Pay, but cannot receive both simultaneously.While increasing combat pay, the Pentagon is also reducing the maximum amount troops can receive in Hardship Duty Pay-Location from $150 to $100 per month. The benefit compensates troops stationed in areas with particularly difficult living conditions, rather than for exposure to combat.After the Iran war started, the Pentagon expanded the locations that are eligible for Imminent Danger Pay to include Arab states that host US bases, Turkey, Cyprus, the Greek island of Crete, the US base at Diego Garcia, and the waters of the Arabian Gulf, Arabian Sea, and Gulf of Oman. Throughout the war in Iran, US bases across the Middle East have been pounded by Iranian missiles and drones, resulting in a significant number of US casualties, which have been downplayed by the Pentagon. According to the Pentagon’s official numbers, since the US and Israel started the war with a sneak attack on Iran on February 28, at least 19 US troops have been killed, and 861 have been wounded.According to a recent report from The Washington Post, the Pentagon has not reported all of the US military deaths in the region since the conflict began. The report put the number of deaths of US service members at up to 23, though it said not all undisclosed deaths were directly tied to the conflict, and it also said that three civilian contractors have died.

GOP senators, blindsided by Hegseth, demand notice, transparency - Key Republican senators say they were blindsided by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s announced 20 percent reduction of the U.S. military’s general and admirals, and they’re voicing concerns about the lack of consultation with Congress and the possibility that qualified senior officers were sacked for political or ideological reasons. Senior Republicans on Capitol Hill are questioning whether too many experienced and highly qualified generals and admirals are being pushed out because of politics and what impact it might have on military readiness in the future. “I wouldn’t have made that a priority if I had been asked,” said Senate Armed Services Committee Chair Roger Wicker (R-Miss.), who said he was only informed of the 20 percent reduction shortly before it was announced. “I didn’t get a long lead,” he said when asked if he got a heads up before Hegseth’s announcement Wednesday. Wicker didn’t have many details about the significant reduction in senior ranks. “I think he’s probably interested in cutting out bureaucracy at the top level,” he speculated. Senate Appropriations Committee Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine), who is handling the Pentagon’s request for an emergency supplemental spending package as well as the annual defense spending bill, said the sudden and large reduction of generals and admirals raises questions and concerns. Collins said she didn’t get advanced notice of the steep reduction in military leadership ranks. She noted she told Hegseth at a hearing earlier this year that his ouster of senior military officials was “deeply troubling” and risked “depriving us” of the “talent, dedication and patriotism” of women and people of color who were disproportionately pushed out. On Wednesday, Collins reiterated her argument that “our system for promoting officers has always been an example of one of the greatest meritocracies that we have.” “I think that we should adhere to a system that has served us well,” she said. “There may be a need to reduce the overall number of flag officers at the Pentagon, but this approach seems to be targeted on ideology.” “It also disturbs me that there’s a disproportionate number of Blacks and females who are not being promoted,” she added. GOP senators say Hegseth’s failure to consult with them is part a broader, troubling trend of making big decisions with little or no input from key members of Congress — or even without giving lawmakers sufficient advanced notice. “Too much time has passed, and he’s failed to respect Congress. He’s never really given us fulsome briefings,” said Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who served eight years on the Senate Armed Services Committee. “When you’re the head of the Department of Defense or any agency, you at least engage your committees,” he said. “When you hear Sen. Wicker and other people express frustration — we’re his stakeholders. We control his purse strings, and he’s almost treating us like we’re some line workers down in the manufacturing facility that he doesn’t want to spend time with.”

GOP senators are not happy with Hegseth --Senior Republican senators say they were blindsided by a plan to reduce by 20 percent the U.S. military’s general and admirals, announced by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth last week. Senior Republicans on Capitol Hill are questioning whether too many experienced and highly qualified generals and admirals are being pushed out and what impact it might have on military readiness in the future. They’re also voicing concerns about the lack of consultation with Congress and the possibility that qualified senior officers were sacked for political or ideological reasons. “I wouldn’t have made that a priority if I had been asked,” said Senate Armed Services Committee Chair Roger Wicker (R-Miss.), who said he was only informed of the 20 percent reduction shortly before it was announced. Senate Appropriations Committee Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine), meanwhile, said the sudden and large reduction of generals and admirals raises questions and concerns. Collins said she didn’t get advanced notice of the steep reduction in military leadership ranks, reiterating her argument that “our system for promoting officers has always been an example of one of the greatest meritocracies that we have.” My colleague Alexander Bolton spoke to these Republican lawmakers and others who say Hegseth’s failure to consult with them is part a broader, troubling trend of making big decisions with little or no input from key members of Congress — or even without giving lawmakers sufficient advanced notice.

Kelly calls to remove Hegseth ‘immediately’ over public execution plan  -Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) called on the Trump administration to remove Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth from his post “immediately” over the Pentagon chief’s plan to livestream the military execution of former Army Maj. Nidal Hasan, the convicted Fort Hood shooter. Kelly argued the government publicizing Hasan’s death by firing squad is akin to U.S. adversaries’ public execution practices, namely those of Iran and the Taliban. He went on to say the administration should be “delivering for the American people,” not “glorifying violence.” Hasan was convicted of killing 13 people on a Texas military base in 2009. He is set to be put to death on Dec. 3 — the first military execution in more than 60 years. “There is no doubt that Nidal Hasan is a murderer who took the lives of 13 people and injured dozens. He should face justice for that. But a public execution? Here in the United States?” Kelly wrote in a Friday post on social platform X. Kelly — who has called for Hegseth’s resignation before — said the livestream plan, along with the Pentagon chief’s “maximum lethality” campaign, further justified his removal. The Arizona Democrat, a retired Navy captain, is suing the Pentagon for censuring him and moving to lower his retirement rank over his participation in a video that reminded troops they must refuse illegal orders. Defense officials argued Kelly was urging service members to defy lawful directives and thus violating military rules, justifying the punishment. But criticism of the plans for Hasan’s execution reached both sides of the political aisle. Sen. John Curtis (R-Utah) drew comparisons between Hegseth’s announcement and the fall of the Roman Empire, saying, “A civilization erodes when it cultivates an appetite for executions as a form of entertainment.” “Secretary Hegseth’s plan to livestream the Fort Hood execution risks feeding that appetite,” Curtis wrote in an X post. “The victims deserve justice administered with solemnity. Broadcasting a death diminishes us and is not an effective deterrent. I urge him to reconsider.” Another GOP senator, Thom Tillis (N.C.), called the execution plan “beyond disgusting,” while Sen. Chris Murphy (D-N.Y.) suggested Hegseth could be mimicking ISIS-style killings. Archbishop Paul Coakley, president of the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops, also weighed in, calling the publicization of capital punishment a “barbaric promotion of a culture of death.”

Trump plans executive order seeking to bring down high diesel costs - President Donald Trump plans to announce Monday executive actions aimed at lowering the high fuel costs weighing on Republicans ahead of the midterms, according to three people familiar with the plans.Trump plans to tout the moves during a campaign stop in Nebraska, where the high diesel costs and the president’s step to increase foreign beef imports ahead of November have riled farmers and ranchers at the peak of harvest season across deep-red and battleground states. The announcement would come after weeks of chaotic messaging on high diesel prices, punctuated on Friday by Trump saying he would not impose a diesel export ban after he repeatedly said he was considering the option. The steps to be announced Monday include a Treasury Department review of certain taxes for diesel. The executive order would also direct states to do more to increase the availability of tax-exempt red-dyed diesel, used in farming, construction and other industries, and to urge that states waive certain fuel taxes, according to the people. The executive actions also include so-called non-enforcement of dyed diesel limitations. Some Republican governors have already taken similar steps on dyed diesel.Trump officials have been preparing action around dyed diesel for more than a week. The Monday move comes as surging fuel prices — caused by the ongoing war against Iran as well as Ukrainian attacks against Russian refineries — have angered farmers and contributed to persistent inflation that is threatening Republicans’ hold on Congress in the November midterm elections. But some Republicans have opposed efforts to waive excise taxes on diesel as states use those revenues to pay for infrastructure projects such as road repairs.The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins told Fox News on Monday morning that Trump would make an “announcement” on additional short-term relief for farmers in Nebraska this afternoon, which she would also discuss during a stop in Iowa.Ten states accounting for roughly a third of U.S. diesel sales had already taken steps to allow wider use of dyed diesel as of Friday, according to the research firm ClearView Energy Partners. Several states also waived taxes for diesel used in agricultural vehicles. The moves helped drop the average price of diesel to $6.32 a gallon on Monday, down 13 cents from the week before but still $2.63 higher than a year ago, according to AAA.Federal action on dyed diesel could help reduce prices for freight truck drivers and others who operate on-road vehicles but would do little for farmers and construction equipment drivers who already have access to the tax-exempt fuel, Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for fuel price tracking website GasBuddy, said last week.“It could save on-road users ~60c/gal,” De Haan said in a social media post on X. “But farmers already use dyed diesel and are still paying record prices. Taxes aren’t the problem, supply is.”Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil analyst at Dow Jones Energy, said suspending fuel taxes can lead to short-term relief at the pump, but have long-term consequences for transportation infrastructure. “When you’re not collecting taxes, you’re just kicking the can down the road, because you have to fix roads and stuff like that,”

Trump announces steps to lower high cost of diesel - President Trump announced on Monday that his administration will take a series of steps aimed at lowering high diesel costs. The president had been expected to announce a directive aiming to increase the availability of red-dyed diesel. This diesel simply has red dye added to it to signal that it is tax exempt and is typically used in machines such as farm and construction equipment. “I’m going to sign a historic executive order to officially waive the off-road requirement, and allow anyone to purchase tax-free red dyed diesel for any reason,” Trump said before calling on aide Natalie Harp to bring the order on stage for him to sign. Trump signed the order at a rally for Nebraska Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) and Gov. Jim Pillen (R). Ricketts’ reelection bid in particular has become increasingly competitive in recent weeks. “So Pete and Jim, this should absolutely assure your election,” the president said. Trump was also expected to announce a Treasury Department review of diesel taxes during his speech at a campaign rally in Nebraska. The moves come as diesel prices have reached record highs in recent weeks and put a strain on industries that use the fuel, including agriculture and trucking. As of Monday, diesel averaged about $6.32 per gallon, according to AAA. Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst at Gulf Oil, told The Hill that he doesn’t expect that increasing availability of red-dyed diesel will make a significant difference in the price overall. “This is really a cosmetic gesture,” Kloza told The Hill ahead of the actual announcement based on reports that such a move was forthcoming. “This really is a Band-Aid where a tourniquet would be more appropriate.” He emphasized that the quantity of diesel released would not be enough to supplant the barrels that have been lost particularly in the Russia-Ukraine war as Ukraine targets Russian oil refineries.

President Trump Scraps Off-Road Limit on ‘Red Dye’ Diesel as Drivers Battle Soaring Prices - Diesel prices have soared this year, and the Trump administration is changing the rules around a cheaper type of fuel in an effort to bring costs down. President Donald Trump signed an executive order allowing anyone to purchase tax-exempt "red dye" diesel, according to an NBC News article published on Monday, October 5. The fuel has traditionally been reserved for off-road uses, including farm vehicles and machinery. Trump, 80, announced the change during a rally in Nebraska, telling the crowd he was going to "officially waive the off-road requirement" for the fuel. Per the report, red-dyed diesel is cheaper because it is exempt from federal and state excise taxes. Diesel used by vehicles traveling on public roads, including long-haul trucks, is normally subject to those taxes. The red coloring allows regulators and inspectors to distinguish the tax-exempt fuel from road diesel. The executive order directs the secretaries of transportation, agriculture, defense and the treasury to work on expanding access to tax-exempt diesel. The administration is also encouraging states to suspend their diesel taxes. The move comes as diesel prices have climbed dramatically. NBC News reported that it hit an all-time high of $6.52 per gallon on September 22. Since the war in Iran began on February 28, the price of diesel in the U.S. has increased by more than 70 percent. NBC News reported that the rise has outpaced increases in both Brent crude oil and unleaded gasoline over the same period. Trump said allowing broader access to red-dyed diesel could save a typical trucker more than $100 each time they fill their tank, while signing the executive order before a crowd, the outlet reported. He also argued that cutting truckers' fuel costs could help bring down the price of groceries and other goods transported by truck. As First for Autos previously reported, in response to rising fuel costs, Trump also recently approved new fuel economy standards that could affect what Americans spend on gas. Per Reuters, the rules are projected to lower the upfront cost of a new vehicle by about $930, but government estimates found Americans could use roughly 100 billion additional gallons of fuel through 2050 and spend about $185 billion more at the pump.

‘Minimal relief’: Trucking groups pan Trump’s diesel executive order – -The nation’s largest trucking groups said Tuesday that President Donald Trump’s executive order aimed at easing diesel prices would do little to increase availability of the key transportation fuel. The statements from groups representing both major trucking companies and independent truckers — typically close Trump allies — cast doubt on the president’s claims Monday that the move would save truckers hundreds of dollars and help bring down the cost of goods across the economy. The high cost of diesel — averaging $6.31 a gallon, or about $2.64 higher than last year — is dragging on Republicans going into next month’s elections. Trump signed the order — aimed at expanding access to tax-exempt dyed diesel typically limited to off-road use — during a campaign stop Monday in Nebraska, where farmers and truckers have particularly felt the pinch of record diesel prices. The order directs the Treasury Department to within five days defer payment of the federal excise tax connected to on-road use of dyed diesel fuel without interest or penalties through the end of the year.The order drew some praise mostly from agriculture-state lawmakers and a few farm groups, even though farmers largely already had access to dyed diesel.But expanding dyed diesel use “does not create additional fuel or address the underlying supply crunch that is driving prices higher,” Henry Hanscom, chief advocacy and public affairs officer at the American Trucking Associations, said in a statement Tuesday.“Our priority is meaningful, reliable relief that lowers operating costs without creating new compliance burdens or undermining the roads and bridges our industry depends on,” Hanscom said.Hanscom noted that the “practical details here matter,” saying the group would need to review IRS’ forthcoming guidance to “better understand how this relief will work in practice.”“Carriers need clear federal and state guidance on eligibility, reporting, and any taxes that remain payable,” he said.Todd Spencer, president and CEO of the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association, echoed that “allowing the wider use of red-dyed diesel will provide minimal relief.”“Every $1 increase per gallon in fuel costs our members around $400 more per week, and sustained high prices will put many truck drivers out of business,” Spencer said. “Market stability is essential to bring down costs for the long haul.”

US diesel prices remain high despite Trump's moves to boost supplies (Reuters) - US diesel prices remain at near-record highs, up 70% since the US-Israeli war on Iran began despite two recent moves by President Donald Trump to boost supplies: pressuring allies to release emergency reserves and expanding access to tax-exempt red-dyed diesel. The wars in Iran and Ukraine have triggered a severe global fuel supply crunch, pushing the average US diesel price to $6.28 a gallon on Friday, according to motorist group AAA. “Aside from a recession that hammers consumption, the only thing that can prevent oil prices from rising further and put them on a sharp downward trajectory is a durable end to conflicts in the Arabian Gulf and between Russia and Ukraine,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group. “Otherwise, policy options range from marginal to counterproductive.” High fuel prices have made it harder for Trump and his Republican Party to defend narrow congressional majorities in the November 3 midterm elections. The cost of living is the top item cited by voters in a Reuters/Ipsos poll, and high diesel prices put particular pressure on traditional Republican constituencies: farmers, truckers and rural voters. The administration has touted a G7 agreement to release 100 million barrels of oil and petroleum products as a major step to help ease prices, but those barrels appear to largely cover what remains of a March emergency release by International Energy Agency members, rather than new supply. A White House official disputed that characterization, saying the earlier commitments were not specifically for refined products. The administration negotiated for the previously committed barrels to be front-loaded with diesel and released on a tight timeline beginning immediately, the official said. The White House said Trump was focused on easing temporary disruptions while pursuing longer-term energy policies. The administration's other major initiative, an executive order allowing red-dyed diesel on public roads through year-end, has drawn limited industry uptake. The fuel is chemically identical to what trucks normally burn but is tinted to show it is exempt from the 24.4-cent-per-gallon federal highway tax. The order defers the federal tax and waives penalties for burning off-road fuel on highways. But major retailers and marketers remain wary of selling it because of unclear tax liabilities, logistical hurdles and the risk of fines when trucks cross state lines. The tax savings are relatively small with diesel prices above $6 a gallon. David Fialkov, who lobbies on behalf of NATSO, a trade group for truck stops and travel centers, said the White House appeared to be encouraging the supply chain to sell dyed fuel through channels not traditionally used for highway diesel, but said that most reputable retailers and marketers were unlikely to do so. John Tirado, president of New Jersey-based commercial fuel supplier Summa Energy, called the red-dyed diesel plan “a Band-Aid on a much bigger problem.” The White House said more than 4,000 retailers distribute dyed diesel. It said Treasury Department guidance will clarify the rules, allowing drivers to use it without federal tax or penalty. It said the savings should outweigh any detour costs for truckers seeking the fuel. “The fundamental problem facing the US is not taxation but an exceptionally tight global market for refined products,” said Caspian Conran, lead economist at Baringa, citing disruptions to energy flows from the Middle East and reduced refining output elsewhere. He described the measures as short-term steps ahead of the election that could provide “probably a few weeks of relief,” rather than a durable solution.

Trump strikes deal with Putin for Russian diesel (AP) — President Donald Trump said he has struck a deal to obtain diesel from Russia, a stunning reversal of years of U.S. pressure on Moscow over its war with Ukraine and an attempt to address high fuel prices ahead of the U.S. midterm elections.Trump said on social media on Friday that he struck the deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin in a phone call in which he was expected to discuss a suspected case of plague in Russia. Instead, Trump announced that Russia will immediately supply more than 300,000 tons of diesel, followed by an additional 500,000 tons in November and 1 million tons “immediately thereafter.” Russia will deliver an additional 3 million tons “within a short period of time” after that, he wrote.Trump’s shocking announcement was in stark contrast to a sweeping Russia sanctions law he signed last month that aimed at clamping down on the oil and gas revenues that fuel Russia’s war against Ukraine.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called it “a weak decision, unfortunately, a weak decision by strong partners,” according to a statement released by the Ukrainian Embassy in Washington.Trump announced the deal as his envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner were meeting with Ukrainian officials in Miami to discuss a proposal to end the Russia-Ukraine war.“I believe our team is simply being used as a smokescreen. And that is certainly not fair. It is certainly not how partners should treat each other,” Zelenskyy said.Trump’s move casts doubt on the likelihood of the White House imposing new sanctions on Russia, given that the law that passed overwhelmingly by Congress directs the administration to target countries that purchase Russian oil and gas. Lawmakers this week had urged the Trump administration to act quickly to use the tools available to help Ukraine.Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer, along with Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, who is the top Democrat on the Foreign Relations Committee, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, the ranking Democrat on the Banking Committtee, called Trump’s announcement a betrayal of Ukraine, the European allies and U.S. national security.“Enough is enough,” the senators wrote. “The President must end his war with Iran instead of funding Russia’s war machine.”Gas prices globally have surged as the war in Iran upends the energy sector. While diesel future prices dipped on the news on Friday, the national average for a gallon of diesel in the U.S. remained high at $6.28, according to AAA, after hitting a record $6.52 on Sept. 22.Trump did not address the sanctions or Russia’s war but said, “Lower prices for Americans, especially our Great Farmers, Ranchers, and Truckers, is my Greatest Priority.”Trump said later as he left the White House for a campaign rally that he was thankful for the deal. “I want to thank President Putin. To be honest with you, we have massive amounts of oil coming into our country, and it’s diesel, which is what we want. So, thank you,” Trump said. He did not answer shouted questions about the criticism from Zelenskyy.

Trump strikes deal with Putin to supply Russian diesel to U.S. and global markets -- President Donald Trump said Friday that Russia will supply more than 4 million tons of diesel to the global market under a deal he struck with President Vladimir Putin during a phone call. Russia will immediately supply more than 300,000 tons of diesel, followed by 500,000 tons in November, and 1 million tons immediately thereafter, Trump said in a post on Truth Social. Moscow will then deliver another 3 million tons of diesel based on the condition of Russia’s refineries, Trump said.The Treasury Department temporarily waived sanctions on Russian diesel through April 2027 under a general license issued Friday.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy immediately condemned Trump’s diesel deal with Putin. Zelenskyy warned that easing sanctions without a commitment from Russia to de-escalate will only prolong the war. “Gifts to Putin will not bring peace or any benefit to the civilized world,” Zelenskyy said in a social media post. “Russia will ‘repay’ the diesel with further terror and perfidy. Allowing Russia to sell petroleum products is an investment in a war that must be ended, not prolonged.”Diesel prices have surged around the world as Ukraine has pounded Russian refineries, forcing Moscow to ban diesel exports to the global market. Iran and its Houthi allies have also attacked refineries in the Middle East, further constraining fuel supplies.Trump is under growing political pressure to take action to reduce fuel prices ahead of the November midterm elections. Republicans are facing competitive elections in conservative strongholds like Iowa, where farmers are feeling the pinch from high diesel prices.But the president has few options to reduce prices given the destruction done to global refining capacity by the wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East.Trump flirted with a diesel export ban last month but ultimately relented after the oil industry and big business warned a ban would just raise gasoline prices.The president issued an executive order earlier this week that allows truckers to use tax-exempt offroad diesel on highways without worrying about federal penalties. But the order only defers the tax obligation, creating confusion about whether truckers may have to pay up at some point.

Trump says Russia will export diesel, lifts sanctions - Russia will supply the U.S. and global market with diesel, President Trump announced Friday, responding to sky-rocketing prices exacerbated by both the Russia-Ukraine and U.S.-Iran wars.  The president’s move comes less than a month from the midterm elections, where rising energy prices are dominating voters’ concerns.  Trump on Friday said that Russia would “immediately” supply 300,000 tons of diesel to the U.S. and the global marketplace.“I have just concluded a highly successful discussion with President Vladimir Putin, of Russia, wherein it was agreed that Russia will immediately supply over 300,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel to the American and Global Marketplace, another 500,000 Tons during the month of November, and 1,000,000 Tons immediately thereafter,” he wrote in a post on Truth Social.“Additionally, based on the condition of their Diesel Refineries, Russia will then deliver, within a short period of time, 3,000,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel,” he added. Moscow confirmed its readiness to supply oil and petroleum to the U.S. and global markets, Putin said in a statement following the call reported by Russian state media.Trump’s comments come after Russia banned diesel exports in the face of a shortage, with its energy production coming under attack from Ukrainian strikes. Late last month, the country had extended its ban until the end of October.The Treasury Department said Friday that it would be lifting sanctions on Russian diesel to allow the fuel into the global marketplace. A few weeks ago, Trump signed a bill into law that authorized further sanctions on Russia. Andy Lipow, president of consulting firm Lipow Oil Associates, said he was “skeptical” that Russia would be able to come up with the promised barrels.

U.S. official: Trump cut deal with Putin after Zelensky ignored his requests -  President Trump decided to make a diesel fuel deal with Russia after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky ignored half a dozen U.S. requests to stop attacking Russian oil refineries, a U.S. official with direct knowledge told Axios. Trump's deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin sparked a new crisis with Ukraine and threatens to derail a new push by the Trump administration for a deal to end the war. "Zelensky is misreading the room. By continuing to hit refineries, he is eroding the good will that he has built with Trump over the last six months," the U.S. official said. Zelensky, in an interview with Axios after the announcement, said he was blindsided by the deal, which he called "not fair and not honest" and an unwarranted gift to Putin. Ukraine's strikes on Russian oil refineries in recent months were highly effective and caused an energy crisis in Russia. Russia imposed a ban on diesel exports in response, which added more pressure to global diesel markets under strain from the war in Iran. Zelensky told Trump and his envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner that he was prepared to stop attacking Russian oil refineries if the Russians halted attacks on Ukrainian power plants. The U.S. official said Trump wanted Ukraine to unilaterally stop attacking Russian refineries because the strikes were contributing to high gas prices in America. Trump didn't see the attacks on refineries as equivalent to Russian strikes on Ukraine's power grid, the U.S. official said. During eight hours of talks in Miami on Friday, Witkoff and Kushner told a Ukrainian negotiating team that the president was expected to speak to Putin and lift sanctions on Russian diesel exports. They were told that Trump decided to move forward after Ukraine ignored multiple requests to stop strikes on Russian oil refineries, which were directly affecting U.S. consumers. A Ukrainian official claimed that during the talks, Witkoff and Kushner threatened that Trump could cut off Ukraine from U.S. intelligence if it continued to ignore his requests. The U.S. official denied such a threat was made and said Witkoff and Kushner told the Ukrainians that the U.S. was a strong partner, providing munitions and intelligence. Ukraine therefore shouldn't take actions that hurt American consumers, Witkoff and Kushner said. "The attacks on the refineries cause pain in Russia, but it causes pain for the U.S., too," the U.S. official said. The official said the new crisis over the diesel deal erupted after the U.S. mediators had constructive talks with Ukrainian and European diplomats in Miami on Friday. The main focus was on finalizing security guarantees that the U.S., Europe and NATO would provide to Ukraine as part of a deal to end the war. New proposals for territorial solutions were also raised. Witkoff and Kushner presented a postwar package for Ukraine that included ways to fund reconstruction and rebuild the Ukrainian military, as well as ideas on how to deal with budget deficits stemming from the war. The participants also discussed a roadmap for Ukraine's accession to the EU and the relationship Ukraine would have with NATO after the war ends. In addition, Witkoff and Kushner raised the possibility of a Europe-Russia postwar security framework that could appeal to both sides. Witkoff and Kushner briefed the Ukrainians and Europeans on potential energy deals with Russia that the U.S. hopes would bring down energy prices and induce Russia to make concessions in peace talks, the U.S. official said. The U.S. official said Witkoff and Kushner are considering visiting Moscow and Kyiv next week to discuss peace proposals, but it's unclear how Friday's blowup will affect their plans. "Putin is hitting [Ukraine] hard but we think he is open to a discussion on ending the war. We want to work on a new proposal that will be good enough for him in order to get him to stop," the U.S. official said. During his 90-minute phone call with Trump, Putin declined to commit to resuming peace talks with Ukraine, his foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov told reporters. He said that Ukrainian strikes on Moscow and other cities during the Russian parliamentary elections "thwarted the possibility of an immediate resumption of the negotiation process." "The president said, we will think about when these negotiations can be resumed," Ushakov added.

Ukraine, US and Europe End Miami Talks Early Amid Russian Diesel Deal - The talks wrapped up sooner than planned as a separate Washington announcement reshaped the political backdrop. Its implications quickly became a source of friction between Kyiv and US lawmakers. Talks between representatives of Ukraine, the United States, and Europe on ending the Russian-Ukrainian war concluded in Miami on October 9 – a day earlier than planned. Sources familiar with the talks did not say why the meeting ended early. U.S. President’s Special Envoy Steve Witkoff described the talks as constructive. He said participants discussed de-escalation and ending the war, security guarantees for Ukraine, the resilience of its energy system ahead of winter, and postwar recovery. The talks in Miami took place against the backdrop of contacts between the United States and Russia. During meetings between the Ukrainian, American, and European delegations, U.S. President Donald Trump held a phone call with Vladimir Putin. After the call, Trump announced an agreement to supply millions of tons of Russian diesel fuel to the U.S. and global markets. The U.S. Treasury Department issued a general license authorizing transactions involving the sale, delivery, unloading, and import of Russian-origin diesel fuel through April 7, 2027. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky criticized the decision, calling it a sign of weakness by Washington and a gift to Putin. In his view, easing the restrictions will give Russia additional funds to continue the war. Zelensky also questioned the value of the talks in Miami in light of the U.S. agreements with Russia. American lawmakers also criticized the agreement. Republican Congressman Don Bacon called support for Russia’s war economy unacceptable and accused Trump of being lenient toward Putin. Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal said easing restrictions on Russian diesel fuel would benefit Moscow and Beijing economically and weaken sanctions pressure on the Kremlin. He called the agreement shameful and contrary to Congress’s efforts to strengthen sanctions against Russia. Thus, the talks in Miami ended ahead of schedule, with participants outlining areas for further work. At the same time, the announced agreement between Washington and Moscow drew criticism from the Ukrainian president and American lawmakers.             

Russian Diesel for Trump, Tariffs for India  U.S. Donald Trump has a simple rule for Russian oil: when India buys it, punish India; when America needs it, call Vladimir Putin. The oil is the same, the Russian president is the same, and the money flows to the same Kremlin. Only the buyer changes. And with it, apparently, the morality. On 9 October, Trump announced a “highly successful” discussion with Putin, after which Russia would supply more than 300,000 tonnes of diesel immediately, another 500,000 tonnes in November and millions more thereafter. The purpose? To bring down fuel prices for American farmers, ranchers and truckers. The US Treasury duly authorised Russian diesel imports until April 2027. So much for punishing Moscow by denying it energy revenues. When American consumers need cheaper fuel, sanctions become negotiable, Putin becomes a business partner and Russian diesel becomes a presidential achievement. Oil, Tariffs, and Power Double Standards India, meanwhile, has been threatened with punitive tariffs for buying Russian oil. On 18 September, Trump signed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, giving him the authority to impose tariffs of up to 100 per cent on imports from qualifying countries that continue buying Russian oil and gas. India is among the countries exposed to this threat. The tariffs are not automatic, but the power to impose them is real. The message to New Delhi is that buying Russian oil to protect India’s energy security could invite American retaliation. The message from Washington’s latest deal with Moscow is that buying Russian fuel to protect American consumers is entirely sensible. Trump wants India to accept economic pain for a geopolitical principle he is perfectly willing to suspend when the price of diesel at home becomes politically inconvenient. There is a word for this. It is called hypocrisy. India imports enormous quantities of oil to keep its economy running. Its choices affect transport costs, industrial production, inflation and the household budgets of millions. New Delhi has every right to seek competitive prices and diversify its energy supplies. If Trump’s farmers and truckers deserve affordable fuel, so do India’s consumers and businesses. Why should an American president get to decide that one country’s energy security is legitimate while another’s is grounds for punishment? The spectacle becomes even more revealing when China enters the picture. China has been the largest buyer of Russian fossil fuels, accounting for 51 per cent of Russia’s export revenues from the five largest importing countries in August 2026. It is also a major purchaser of Russian crude. The Graham Act gives Trump powers to target China as well as India. But legislation is one thing; the willingness to use it against a country capable of hitting back is quite another. Beijing has leverage that New Delhi cannot simply replicate: its dominance of rare-earth processing and critical-mineral supply chains on which American electronics, electric vehicles and defence industries depend. And China has already demonstrated its willingness to use export controls as bargaining power in trade disputes. Trump can threaten tariffs against India and leave Indian exporters worrying about their next shipment. Against China, the prospect of retaliation affecting critical American industries complicates the calculation. This does not mean Washington cannot target Beijing, or that China is immune under the law. Not does it mean that India has no leverage. It means that the costs of confrontation matter. The bully’s courage, it seems, is subject to a calculation of what the other fellow can do in return. And then there is Trump’s claim that America has “TOTAL CONTROL” of the Strait of Hormuz. Capital letters are apparently his preferred substitute for evidence. Hormuz is a vital energy chokepoint, but military superiority does not automatically guarantee safe passage for every commercial vessel or eliminate the risks of disruption. If Washington has the total control Trump proclaims, why is the global fuel market still under such pressure that he needs Putin’s help to promise relief? The announcement does not prove that the United States lacks military control of the waterway. It does show that a presidential declaration cannot, by itself, deliver energy security or bring prices crashing down. The promised supplies must still arrive, and their impact will depend on market conditions. Nor is Russian diesel the only reminder of the terms on which Washington now deals with India. On 8 October, the US Department of Labour suspended eight technology companies, including TCS, Infosys, Wipro and HCL Technologies, alongside Microsoft, Adobe, Cognizant and Capgemini, from the Permanent Labour Certification programme. The administration cited alleged abuses of employment-based immigration rules. The suspension can delay green-card applications for affected workers, although it does not automatically cancel existing green cards or H-1B visas. The allegations deserve proper scrutiny, and America is entitled to enforce its laws. But Indian companies and professionals are once again left dealing with the consequences of a Washington decision. Indian talent is welcome when it serves American business; its immigration prospects become uncertain when domestic politics demands a tougher line. Indian exports are welcome until tariffs become a convenient instrument of pressure. Russian energy is objectionable until American voters need cheaper diesel. Each policy has its own legal basis, but the pattern is hard to miss: American interests are presented as necessities, while India’s interests are treated as negotiable. Trump is entitled to put America first. India must put India first, too. What Washington cannot reasonably demand is that New Delhi subordinate its energy security to American preferences while Washington itself buys Russian fuel when it suits its needs. The next time Trump threatens India over Russian oil, he need not look far for a response. It is there in his own announcement, in his own words, in his own deal with Putin. If Russian diesel is good enough for America, Russian oil is good enough for India.

Woman sues Trump administration after being shot five times by immigration agent - Marimar Martinez, a Chicago woman who was shot five times by an immigration agent, sued the federal government Monday for damages, with her attorneys saying new analysis of the scene will prove the officer shot her as she was turning her car away from him. Martinez was initially charged in the wake of her shooting by Border Patrol agent Charles Exum. The suit alleges false arrest and imprisonment, malicious prosecution, emotional distress, and negligence. Martinez’s attorneys took the unusual step of hring a crime scene analyst in advance of bringing the case. “We know in this day and age, with 40 [to] 50 percent of America believing everything that comes out of the mouth of a DOJ [Department of Justice] or the current administration’s representative, that we need to show objective proof from Jump Street. We need to show them that their lies are done today, that they can’t twist the truth or keep spinning it because that ends,” said Michael Gallagher, one of the attorneys bringing the case, in a Chicago press conference. “So with this investigation and this kind of analysis, we think we’ve done that.” The Department of Homeland Security did not comment on the case or its claims. “Consistent with policy, Agent Exum was placed on administrative leave,” a spokesperson said. Shortly after the shooting, the Department of Homeland Security called Martinez a domestic terrorist and said she had tried to attack Exum with her car. Martinez’s legal team walked through the analysis, noting that shots entered through the passenger side of her front windshield and then later through the side of her car, details they say defy Exum’s explanation that he fired as her vehicle was heading towards him. “It’s actual, concrete physical evidence and science by an independent expert that shows the agent lied about where he was, and Marimar has been telling the truth,” said Chris Parente, another of Martinez’s attorneys. The suit, brought under the Federal Tortious Claims Act, does not ask for specific damages and Gallagher said they are most interested in bringing the case to trial before a judge. “We don’t expect them to ever offer any type of money, which is fine by us. We prefer the verdict,” he said. Martinez said once the charges against her were dropped, she was prepared to let the matter go until there were two more fatalities at the hands of federal agents in Minneapolis. “Look at what happened to Renee and all these victims. So I won’t stop. I have a voice, and I do matter, and I don’t want it to keep happening. I don’t. I just don’t. So I want to spread awareness because what’s happening is not normal. We shouldn’t stay here and normalize what’s happening,” Martinez said.

Man shot by ICE in New York City -A U.S. Immigrations and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agent shot and wounded a man late Thursday afternoon in New York City, Mayor Zohran Mamdani (D) confirmed. The New York Police Department (NYPD) first reported a shooting “involving federal law enforcement agents” occurred at approximately 4 p.m. in the Bronx’s Marble Hill neighborhood, clarifying that city police were not involved in the incident. Officials confirmed to The Hill’s broadcasting partner NewsNation at around 6 p.m. that ICE agents had been involved. The officials told NewsNation that the victim was an immigrant who entered the country illegally and had a criminal record. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said Thursday night that the man had a prior criminal conviction for grand larceny, and multiple prior arrests for assault, robbery, possession of drugs and weapons possession. The man, 28, had previously been arrested on Dec. 7, 2023, but was released a few days later, according to DHS. New York City Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch said during a Thursday night press conference that at least one ICE agent discharged seven rounds, striking the victim in the neck below his left ear. NYPD reported the man was transported to a nearby hospital. Mamdani, in a social media post, denounced ICE’s actions in the city, calling it “an incredibly serious situation.” The New York City mayor added that he had already called President Trump about the incident. “I have called the President; when we speak I will demand that he ends all ICE enforcement actions in our city,” he wrote. “I will not stand by while ICE agents terrorize our communities.

Trump immigrant purge could cut Social Security for Americans by $2,000 a year - Elderly Americans can expect to lose an average of $2,152 in annual social security benefits each, a projected 8.6% reduction in their retirement payments, by 2034 and every year after as a direct consequence of the economic fallout from the Trump administration’s anti-immigration campaign, if that carries on, according to a new report shared exclusively with the Guardian. Already, US food prices are up, housing permits to build new homes are down – and even native-born Americans are losing out on potential jobs after the sudden exodus of 1.2 million foreign-born workers over the last two years as a result of Donald Trump’s policies, the report finds. “When the Trump administration says things, it’s not always data-driven. And we wanted to see what the data shows, and what other people have found the data shows,” said Michael Ettlinger, one of the report’s authors. “Turns out that refutes what the US president primarily is asserting.” The blowback on the economy from Donald Trump’s crackdown is wide-ranging, even as the federal government’s aggressive mass deportation campaign quietly ramps up further.. “We are just beginning to see the harms in terms of what is happening here domestically. But the impacts of these policies, of these efforts, are going to be long-lasting. And I think that is by design,” Vanessa Cárdenas, executive director of the pro-immigration reform organization America’s Voice, told the Guardian. The report, Economic Impacts of Trump Administration Immigration Policy, was commissioned by America’s Voice and conducted by researchers at Economic Insights and Research Consulting, a firm focused on economic analysis. Its conclusions underscore how recent federal policies revoking immigrants’ legal protections or targeting them for enforcement have had dire effects on the nation’s affordability crisis and job market, especially in regions and industries that rely disproportionately on foreign-born workers. In the US agricultural sector, where 42% of crop workers are undocumented and 68% are foreign-born, farmers across the country are warning that the vast majority or in some cases all of their workforce has disappeared overnight, leaving produce to fall to, or rot in, the ground and go to waste.. Food products heavily reliant on immigrant labor have experienced much sharper price increases than food overall since Trump retook the White House, according to the report. Examples of immigrant-reliant food price increases that have exceeded the average increase in grocery prices over the last 19 months, compared with the 19 months before Trump returned to office in January 2025, are: fresh whole milk up by 5.7%, canned vegetables up by 6.3%, and apples up by 7.2%, the report found. In that period before Trump’s inauguration, the vast majority of foods that principally depend on immigrant labor for production saw prices rise more slowly compared with other foods and some prices even fell outright, according to the report. “One thing that changed was the [immigration] policy. Before, the trend for all those goods was a lower inflation rate. And afterward, the trend was higher inflation. So the trend was reversed, and that was quite striking,” said Robert Lynch, one of the report’s authors. The construction industry, where foreign-born workers fill almost a third of all occupations, has also been severely affected. States more dependent on immigrant labor have seen costs for new single-family homes soar 10.9% in 2026, compared with the first eight months of 2024, bringing building projects’ monetary value from an average of $305,752 to $338,752. And the issuance of housing permits to build single-family homes has dropped 10.6% nationwide since January 2025, with higher declines in regions more reliant on foreign-born workers, the research found. Meanwhile, native-born Americans are missing out on potential income in hard-hit states like California, Nevada, New Jersey, Florida and New York, where construction employment is on the decline – because when there are no immigrant roofers to build a home, American electricians and plumbers lose that project, too. “It’s not like someone can go work in construction and just not have any skills. And we’re losing people who have been here for decades working in construction. That could be fixed, but it’s going to take time,” Ettlinger said. Other industries with soaring costs and severe labor shortages include healthcare, including home health care, nursing homes, adult daycare, lawn care, landscaping and groundskeeping, where immigrants have historically comprised a disproportionate share of the workforce and expertise. By September 2025, less than nine months into the second Trump administration, native-born workers had already lost an estimated 51,000 to 297,000 jobs because of changes to US immigration policy, the report said. The labor force shrunk by an estimated 919,000 people during the 18 months of Trump’s second term, while job growth has slowed to roughly a third of the rate it was before he retook office. The federal government risks losing a large segment of the $26bn in payroll taxes from unauthorized immigrants who help to support the US social security fund that pays out to American seniors – while not being able to access those benefits themselves. Now, social security trustees, including the treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, health and human services secretary, Robert F Kennedy Jr, labor secretary, Keith Sonderling, and social security commissioner, Frank Bisignano, are warning that lower net immigration than expected is threatening worse finances for the flailing retirement benefits system, which could mean cuts to Americans’ entitlements. “The share of that annual loss due to the Trump immigration policy would be $2,152 [per person on average]. Thus, the Trump immigration policies, if continued, would reduce projected average annual Social Security benefits by 8.6% in 2034, and every year thereafter,” the report’s authors write.

Shock poll: 89 percent of boomers want higher taxes on young people -- If you spent any time on social media this week, you might have seen a trending news item that really boils my blood, and maybe yours: The headline is this: “JUST IN: 89% of American seniors support higher taxes on younger workers to protect current Social Security benefits, per Cato Institute” And that got shared over and over by all sorts of different accounts. In fact, it isn’t breaking news — I tracked down the Cato Institute study that produced this result, and it was published last December. But aside from the false portrayal of this as breaking news, I totally agree with the freakout and the fury it produced on social media. Yes, it is a moral scandal that the boomers — retirees, the wealthiest generation in American history — will stop at nothing to protect their welfare payments from the government, and would be happy to raise taxes on younger, poorer Americans in order to save Social Security. From Cato: “A striking generational divide emerges over Social Security reform. A majority (53%) of Americans under age 30 say younger workers should be protected from higher taxes even if doing so requires reducing benefits for current retirees. In sharp contrast, 89% of seniors age 65 and older believe current retirees’ benefits should be protected even if that means higher taxes on younger workers.” You make, they take. When Social Security was enacted nearly 100 years ago, it was necessary to prevent people who were too old to work from dying of poverty on the streets. But the situation is very different today. Now, it is elder Americans who own most of the wealth in society. And they have been able to rig the system to protect their largesse. We have a housing shortage because they support zoning laws that make it difficult to build new houses, for instance. In fact, so many of the things young people need — housing, childcare, medical care, education, jobs — are made less obtainable because government regulation gets in the way. Regulation supported by the boomers. And now they want to raise our taxes too? It’s generational theft. Keep in mind, no one is going to raise their taxes. Both Republicans and Democrats are actually competing to make the elderly pay less in taxes, including by eliminating property taxes for them — but not for you, first-time homebuyer. And some conservative commentators, to their credit, recognize it as absurd. On X, Matt Walsh writes: “I understand that the social security conversation is political poison. But I’m not running for office so I don’t care about that. Taking huge chunks out of the paychecks of young working Americans in order to pay for the retirements of older Americans who have a net worth several times higher, all to prop up a system that everyone knows likely won’t be there when those younger people are retirement age themselves, is morally abhorrent and economically insane. Everyone knows it, too, but we’re held hostage by elderly politicians who refuse to surrender power, and older voters who, as a group (with exceptions, obviously), simply don’t care all that much about the financial and cultural future their grandchildren will inherit.” On the other hand, if older Americans are actually determined to maintain their current Social Security payouts, it’s going to mean a lot more taxes for everyone else. Jessica Reidl, a fellow at the Brookings Institution, has done the math. She writes: “Maintaining full Social Security benefits would mean raising the payroll tax from 12.4% to nearly 17%. Also fully funding Medicare would require adding another 9pp, or perhaps adding a 25% VAT. So that (often wealthy) seniors can keep getting back far more than they paid in.” That’s right, they’re getting much more than they paid in, because they live longer on average than was considered normal at the time the program was designed. This is simply unworkable. It’s bankrupting our country and it’s dooming our children and our grandchildren. We need more people, hopefully more politicians, to stand up and say enough is enough, even though it’s politically unpopular. It’s simply wrong to sentence the next generation to indentured servitude.

Some CDC foreign offices shutting their doors as US implements ‘America First’ policy - US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) offices in Angola and South Sudan were shuttered last week, and the Zimbabwe office is slated to close at the end of the year, with a dozen other foreign offices expected to follow suit in the coming years, Politico reported today.Decreased CDC funding, State Department–issued operational limitations, and security problems are leading to the office shutterings, a CDC official told Politico anonymously.The closures are part of President Donald Trump’s “America First Global Health Strategy” and follow the shutdown of the US Agency for International Development (USAID), which managed foreign aid from 1961 until 2025. Cuts by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) hobbled the CDC, which has 30% fewer employees on its payroll than it did before Trump began his second term. Before the budget cuts, the CDC used to fund the distribution of tests and drugs, direct people to medical care, train local health workers, and help foreign governments improve their healthcare systems. Now, however, only countries that agree to shoulder more of their own health costs over time and demonstrate improved health and development metrics will receive CDC assistance. So far, 35 countries have agreed to the terms, including Angola and South Sudan, which will receive $71 million and $146 million, respectively, over the next three years.  The State Department hasn’t revealed how much CDC services will cost these countries other than to say that only Kenya and Rwanda will receive slightly less money, because they are paying a higher share of health costs.Zimbabwe refused to sign an agreement, which experts fear could have severe health consequences. Indeed, the United States may also suffer under the shuttering of foreign CDC offices, which have been an early-warning system for disease outbreaks that could reach US shores.Experts say the office closures will lead to disease outbreaks and death. “Who’s going to pick up the phone if there’s a Marburg [hemorrhagic fever] outbreak and the Zimbabwe office has closed?” Asia Russell, executive director of the HIV nonprofit Health GAP, asked Politico.

Senate Democrats probe former Trump official’s connections to oil company - California congressional Democrats are seeking details about a former White House official and the government support she gave to an oil company shortly before she took a job there, according to a letter POLITICO obtained.  Brittany Kelm left the White House in August to take a job as Sable Offshore’s vice president of policy and commercial.Sens. Adam Schiff and Alex Padilla, along with Democratic Rep. Salud Carbajal sent the letter Wednesday to Kelm, a former oil industry employee who spent more than a year at the White House as a senior energy adviser on the National Energy Dominance Council. One of Kelm’s responsibilities was helping Sable restart production of its oil platforms off the coast of Santa Barbara, a project the Trump administration lauded but that California government officials have opposed after an oil spill.n The inquiry, which follows a POLITICO report this summer, is the latest warning shot Democrats are making on potential oversight investigations they may start into the Trump administration if they win control of Congress in November’s election. Democratic lawmakers have signaled they would look into multiple aspects of Trump’s energy policy, including its oil-related projects in Venezuela and its critical minerals deals. The letter highlighted Kelm’s comments and those of other administration officials boosting Sable while she worked in government, along with an instance where a Sable executive credited Kelm’s efforts to help the company.“Your new role, considering your prior close relationship with Sable while serving as a White House Senior Policy Adviser for Oil and Gas, raises serious questions about your compliance with federal ethics laws, compounding the many existing legal issues with the federal government’s unilateral grant of approval of pipeline rights to Sable,” the lawmakers wrote in the letter shared first with POLITICO.The letter from Democratic lawmakers asks Kelm to preserve records and communications related to Sable, and asks her to answer a series of questions about her involvement with the company while she worked for the administration.Kelm and a spokesperson for Sable did not immediately respond to requests for comment.White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers criticized the California Democrats, who, she said, “will do anything but address the massive problems plaguing their state.” She said Kelm followed all ethics rules.“As is standard practice in every administration, White House employees coordinate their departures with ethics officials to ensure full compliance with all applicable guidelines and restrictions during offboarding,” Rogers said in a statement.Sable and the White House are also in a legal battle with the state of California over a restarted offshore oil platform opposed by Gov. Gavin Newsom (D). After California blocked the Sable pipeline that had been idled because of a major oil leak, Sable officials turned to the Trump administration for help. In March, the Department of Energy, citing the Defense Production Act, issued an emergency order to restart the pipeline. Newsom has called the move illegal and the state is now fighting it in court.

Justices appear skeptical of oil companies’ bid to quash climate suits --Several Supreme Court Justices appeared skeptical Monday of a request from oil companies to preemptively block a climate change lawsuit that could hold them liable for climate damages.Many of the justices raised questions about the court’s ability to even take up the case at this time. “A number of the discussions that you’ve had with my colleagues make me think that we’re really early in this case – that this is sort of premature from the standpoint of this court exercising its jurisdiction,” liberal Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson told Suncor Energy lawyer Kannon Shanmugam. While Jackson’s skepticism is not necessarily a surprise, several of her conservative colleagues, namely Justices John Roberts and Neil Gorsuch, also asked tough questions of the fossil fuel firm.Suncor, alongside ExxonMobil, has asked the high court to toss a ruling from the Colorado Supreme Court that allowed a suit to proceed. The suit alleged that the energy companies misled the public about their products’ relationship to climate change and created a public nuisance. The case could have implications for similar litigation around the nation, as states and localities have sued oil and other fossil fuel companies seeking compensation for damages they’ve suffered because of climate change. The court could rule one of three ways: The justices could expressly block the case or expressly allow it to proceed, or they could rule that they don’t have jurisdiction at this point, which could allow the case to move forward, but could see the issue back at the high court at a later date.Either of the latter two outcomes could be at least a partial win for the localities, as they would be able to move ahead with their case — at least in the short term. Boulder needs only four votes in its favor to win the case, as conservative Justice Samuel Alito has recused himself. The fossil fuel firms would need five justices on their side because in a split decision, the lower court’s ruling would stand.

Missing justice scrambles Supreme Court oil liability fight - The Supreme Court appeared potentially at an impasse on Monday over whether federal law bars local governments from suing fossil fuel companies for climate damages. If the court can’t form a majority, dozens of climate cases across the country would continue forward with looming question marks about their legality. At least four justices expressed skepticism about the oil industry’s argument that the Clean Air Act explicitly prevents such lawsuits against polluters. The blockbuster case opening the court’s new term — Suncor v. Boulder, a lawsuit brought by several Colorado localities against Suncor and ExxonMobil — has significant stakes. The suit is just one of three dozen filed around the country that oil companies have argued could create “ruinous” liability for their industry. The high court heard the appeal with just eight members after Justice Samuel Alito recused himself one week before arguments. If the remaining justices split 4-4, no nationwide precedent would be set, meaning some of the lawsuits would move toward trial while others could be struck down by state judges. The court’s liberal wing was most vocally critical of arguments from the oil companies and the Trump administration that federal law preempts state laws and that Congress would have to explicitly authorize states to pursue state law claims like the ones at stake in the climate cases. “It’s like, wow, like, where is the text for that? Where’s the support for that? Where’s the precedent for that? Where’s the anything for that?” said Justice Elena Kagan. Kagan and others drew parallels between Boulder’s climate case and prior lawsuits against the tobacco and opioid industries in which states and localities won significant damages. Chief Justice John Roberts also indicated some sympathy with Boulder’s suit, citing mass torts and internet-related litigation. “There are a lot of familiar situations where conduct outside of a state has broad effects among other states and all that, and yet we allow state courts in a particular state to bring litigation that affects that,” Roberts said. “I guess I’m not quite sure what makes this situation different from all those other ones where we’ve allowed them to proceed in state court.” Deputy Solicitor General Sarah Harris, arguing for the Trump administration in support of the oil companies, argued Boulder’s lawsuit “egregiously exceeds constitutional limits on state authority.” However, Roberts later expressed concern there would be an explosion of cases if the local governments are allowed to sue. “Presumably if you prevail the next day, a municipality in every single state will file a lawsuit,” Roberts told Kevin Russell, the attorney for the communities. “I don’t think there’s anything in the Constitution that says preemption arises from whenever a state law, if copied in other states, could cause a lot of litigation,” Russell replied. Kannon Shanmugam, an attorney representing the oil companies, argued there is no limit to who could be sued under Boulder’s theory. “Boulder could tag me with personal jurisdiction when I am in Colorado in two weeks and sue me on a nuisance claim for refilling my car and thereby contributing to global climate change,” he said. Justice Clarence Thomas questioned Russell as to whether there would be any limits to who could be sued, asking, “You could just as easily sue large retailers of these products?” Potentially, Russell replied. “When lots of people act together to cause widespread harm, it is not uncommon for multiple different defendants to be potentially liable,” he said. Aside from Roberts’ words of support for Boulder’s position, it was not clear whether any of the other conservative justices might side with Boulder over the oil companies.

Trump says he regrets nominating Supreme Court justices Gorsuch, Barrett and Kavanaugh (Reuters) - US President Donald Trump said he regretted nominating three Supreme Court justices — Neil Gorsuch, Amy Coney Barrett and Brett Kavanaugh — who have opposed him in recent rulings, according to a Time Magazine interview. The Republican president was asked about his recent comments regarding the three conservative justices in the interview, which was conducted on Monday. "Do you regret nominating them?" the interviewer asked, referring to Trump's comments in a recent Truth Social post. "Yeah. Yeah," Trump responded, according to a transcript of the interview. "What can I do? I put them in. They voted against me too often. I was very — I gave them the position of a lifetime, and they vote against me often." Trump appointed Gorsuch, Kavanaugh and Barrett during his first term as president, building a 6-3 conservative majority and allowing the court to steer a dramatic rightward course since 2020. "I do like loyalty, yeah," Trump told the interviewer, who then asked whether that was what he wanted from the justices. "No, I don't want loyalty. I want good decisions," Trump said. After the top US judicial body declined to allow a Postal Service rule restricting the use of mail-in ballots in the November midterm elections, Trump said his appointees were behaving differently than they had during interviews. "These are not the people I interviewed to serve on the United States Supreme Court, they are merely a shell of their original selves," he wrote on Truth Social. After the court in February struck down his sweeping global tariffs that it found he had imposed illegally using a law meant for national emergencies, Trump reserved special ire for Gorsuch and Barrett, who were in the majority in that 6-3 ruling.

Trump approved Ohio disaster aid ahead of rally – --President Donald Trump approved millions of dollars in disaster aid for Ohio last week ahead of his campaign rally there, as 15 other disaster requests waited, including five submitted before Ohio’s.Trump authorized the aid the day before he campaigned for the Republican senator in a tight election battle and told a cheering Vandalia, Ohio, crowd that he approved the money at Republican Ohio Sen. Jon Husted‘s request.“Yesterday, I also signed a special disaster relief declaration at the request of Jon [Husted] and Bernie [Moreno] and everybody,” Trump said at the Oct. 3 rally, referring to Ohio’s other Republican senator.   He also criticized Amy Acton, the Democratic candidate for Ohio governor facing Republican Vivek Ramaswamy. “I’m not gonna help her probably,” Trump said. “She hates me, I guess.”Trump used disaster aid as a campaign issue again Wednesday when he vowed on social media to approve disaster aid for Wisconsin as part of his endorsement of Rep. Tom Tiffany, the state’s Republican candidate for governor.The state’s Democratic Gov. Tony Evers, who requested the disaster aid and said he had heard nothing from Trump, called the announcement “Complete and Total Bullshit.”“Clearly, President Trump and Congressman Tiffany are continuing to play politics with emergency aid that’s meant to help communities recover,” Evers, who is not seeking a third term, wrote on social media.Tiffany said in a statement to POLITICO that getting disaster aid after tornadoes hit his district in late July “has been a top priority” and that he has been in “regular contact with the administration.”“I appreciate the administration responding to Wisconsin’s needs,” Tiffany added.   The back-to-back events rekindled Democratic criticism that Trump is using disaster aid to reward allies and punish enemies, ending decades of nonpartisanship in federal help after storms, floods, wildfires and other damaging events.

Trump blasts protesters at site of his 250-foot arch: ‘Do these people not have jobs?’  - President Trump on Sunday criticized protesters who gathered in Washington last week to oppose his triumphal arch project. “Do these people not have jobs?” Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social.  The president also shared images of the demonstrators — including one photo with Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) — who have pushed back against the construction of a $250 million arch in Washington’s Memorial Circle. Many critics have called it a “vanity project” and argued the structure would block views of Arlington National Cemetery. Protesters in the pictures can be seen holding signs with messages like “veterans over vanity” and “arch of corruption.” One sign also reads “sacred space no snipers,” referring to Trump’s claim that the arch will be a military complex used to dock drones and serve as a perch for snipers. Duckworth, an outspoken critic of the project, has argued the structure would cause potential problems for the already complicated Washington airspace.The project has also been opposed by a number of veteran and citizen groups in the Washington area. At least one House Republican, Rep. Mike Simpson (Idaho), has also criticized the construction over the potential use of Pentagon funding.“If it was my choice, I wouldn’t put any of that money into the arch,” Simpson told reporters last month, suggesting the military is already short on funding.The U.S. Commission of Fine Arts, which is made up of seven Trump-appointed panelists, approved the structure’s design earlier this year. A group of Vietnam War veterans later sued to stop its construction.

Trump Wants To Build A New Camp David In The Most Trump Place Possible -President Donald Trump wants to turn part of his own Florida golf course into a new presidential retreat modeled after Camp David, an unusual proposal that would further blur the line between the presidency and Trump's sprawling private business empire. The plan calls for a portion of Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach to become an official presidential retreat where future commanders-in-chief could vacation, conduct diplomacy and host foreign leaders, the Washington Post reports. Under the proposal, the federal government would receive land for the presidential compound, while the remainder of the property would continue operating as a private Trump golf club. Trump would personally cover the cost of constructing the presidential residence and related facilities, according to Harvey Oyer, an attorney representing the club. The facility would be developed in coordination with the General Services Administration and Secret Service. "This is a gift that the president would like to share with his successors, the people of America, and his fellow Palm Beach County residents," Oyer wrote in a letter to county officials obtained by The Post. Future presidents would reportedly receive complimentary memberships to Trump's club and could use the new compound to host foreign leaders and international summits, according to the plan. An unnamed White House official defended the location to The Post, pointing to its proximity to the airport, lack of nearby high-rise buildings and homes, security advantages and access to law enforcement. "The property is minutes away from the Donald J. Trump International Airport, does not have buildings looming, does not have houses along the course, has great security features, is close to law enforcement, and happens to be a highly-rated golf course. These are features that are necessary for any presidential retreat," the official said.

Trump says he will pay for ‘Patriotic Ads’ himself after facing backlash from Democrats - President Trump Donald Trump on Monday said he will pay for the controversial “Patriotic Ads” after backlash mounted in response to the ads being funded by taxpayers. “The Radical Left is upset with the fact that I am taking Ads, which I consider to be a positive promotion for our Great U.S.A., and paying for them with U.S.A. money,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “This is a rather standard thing to do but, rather than doing that, although nothing will make them happy, I have decided to do the Patriotic Ads, among others, and pay for them myself, and with money I raised for MAGA, Inc.,” the president added. The $20-million ad campaign features Trump in a voiceover claiming the U.S. will defeat socialism and communism while also saying the country is “reigniting American manufacturing” under his presidency. Trump’s voice says he and his followers “will liberate America from these villains once and for all,” referring to the press and his political opponents, as “Love Me” by JMSN, the moniker of singer Christian Berishaj, plays in the background. The ads are not intended for any campaign, as they do not promote any specific candidate or political party. Trump has previously pushed back against the criticism by saying that they are fair game for not outwardly supporting him, claiming that they are for the “spirit of the country.” Vice President Vance also defended the ads, saying that there’s a history where the federal government has used tax dollars to promote government actions, using the Obama administration’s ads for the Affordable Care Act as an example. Trump halted that effort at the start of his first term. “It’s part of actually, I think, living in a constitutional republic,” Vance told reporters Monday. “You have to be honest with the American people about what you’re doing, about what’s going on.”

Golden Naked Trump Statue Unveiled At European Parliament | ZeroHedge - A golden statue of a naked Donald Trump is on display at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France, at one of the busiest intersections connecting two of the Parliament's buildings, and is scheduled to stay until Thursday. Named Orange Plague, the 8.5-foot sculpture shows the US president holding justice scales and a long golf club, its ball made to look like the world, while sitting on the shoulders of a smaller, clothed man. Text on the plinth reads: "I am sitting on the back of a man. He is sinking under my burden. I will do anything to help him. Except stepping down from his back." Jens Galschiot, the Danish artist who created the sculpture, said: "Trump represents one of the greatest threats to the rules-based world order, democratic values and our common effort to solving the climate crisis.""We must address this issue and stand together against such destructive influence."Galschiot said the statue, covered in 23-carat gold leaf, was inspired by the story of The Emperor's New Clothes, in which a vain leader parades naked through the street, believing he is dressed in the finest clothes.In the fairytale, no one tells him that he is naked out of fear and flattery until a child points out his nudity and the emperor becomes a figure of ridicule.Per Clausen, a Left-wing Danish European Parliament member, invited the artist to exhibit the statue in the building.He said that he was not worried about a potential reaction from Trump, adding: "If someone is so thin-skinned that they cannot tolerate this sculpture being exhibited in the European Parliament, then they have no place on the world stage."  The statue was previously on display during the 30th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30), which was held in Brazil last year. It also made an appearance in Germany during this year's Munich Security Conference.Worth reading in full over at The Telegraph.

Eric Deters alleges Kimberly Guilfoyle offered political access for cash -  Eric Deters, a former Kentucky congressional candidate and longtime ally of President Trump, has emerged in the national spotlight after an explosive reportrevealed his alleged text exchanges with Kimberly Guilfoyle, U.S. ambassador to Greece, over her credit card debt. The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday that Guilfoyle, ex-wife of California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) and the former fiancé of Donald Trump Jr., allegedly pressed Deters to pay her $100,000 American Express balance without leaving a paper trail and, in exchange, promised to help him reach senior administration officials. Deters, 63, is a former attorney, businessman and conservative radio host who has spent years building connections within Trump’s inner circle. He declined to make the payment and has since publicly accused Guilfoyle of offering political access in exchange for large sums of money. Guilfoyle’s dealings with Deters began drawing attention after the Journal obtained hundreds of text messages, emails and letters, detailing their relationship in a bombshell report. According to the outlet, Guilfoyle told Deters she needed the balance to be paid ahead of her July 9, 2025, confirmation hearing before the Senate. “Honey please I need you to get this done for me today,” she wrote in one exchange on the messaging app Signal, which was obtained by the Journal. The message was sent on July 3, 2025 — just days before her hearing. She then reportedly sent Deters instructions to wire $100,000 directly to her American Express account, suggesting the payment would not leave a paper trail. “It won’t show up anywhere if you wire money to American Express,” she wrote. “Please.” Deters refused, telling Guilfoyle he did not have the money and could not make the payment without jeopardizing his marriage. The Journal also reported that Guilfoyle repeatedly urged Deters not to document their financial arrangements in writing, warning that doing so could threaten her ambassadorship. In an interview with ABC’s “Good Morning America” on Thursday, Deters characterized their relationship as a “quid pro quo,” alleging that Guilfoyle promised to use her political connections to help him if he provided the money. “She made it very clear, and the text messages make it very clear, she was so desperate for me to send that $100,000,” Deters said, claiming Guilfoyle offered to become his “ride or die in the Trump world” if he paid her. Guilfoyle’s attorney has since disputed the authenticity of the messages without identifying specific inaccuracies, saying the ambassador was owed money for previous speaking engagements and travel expenses — a claim Deters denied.

Kimberly Guilfoyle access allegations add to spotlight on Trump advisers President Trump faces a scandal involving a top official, with Ambassador to Greece Kimberly Guilfoyle under scrutiny for allegedly soliciting debt relief in exchange for political access. That revelation follows other reported questionable conduct, including favoring a Greek energy firm. It was the second time this week a White House adviser drew headlines. The Trump administration appeared caught off guard by the reports involving Guilfoyle. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, on a diplomatic trip to Greece, bristled at reporters’ questions over whether he maintained confidence in Guilfoyle and whether her conduct raised any concerns. “Like, our job is not to respond every time someone decides to give the media something without any advance warning, without having any chance to look at it and see what’s in there,” he said. While the administration is batting away questions about Guilfoyle, Democrats have put the ambassador in the crosshairs. “Reports coming out regarding Amb. Guilfoyle’s conduct are deeply concerning and suggest potentially corrupt influences on U.S. foreign policy,” Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.) said in a statement to The Hill. “I have already demanded answers from Secretary [Marco] Rubio regarding her conduct and will continue to press for transparency and accountability. As I have said before, if these allegations are accurate, Amb. Guilfoyle is unfit to represent the United States abroad and should be removed from her position.” The Wall Street Journal first reported Wednesday that Guilfoyle asked one of Trump’s donors to wire her $100,000 to cover her credit card debt in a way that would not show up in paperwork ahead of her confirmation hearing for ambassador to Greece. In text messages obtained by NewsNation, the partner site for The Hill, Guilfoyle pleads for the donor, Eric Deters, to wire the funds to American Express. “It won’t show up anywhere if you wire money to American Express,” she wrote on Signal on July 3, 2025, according to messages reviewed by The Hill. Her confirmation hearing took place July 9, 2025. Deters said Guilfoyle offered to be his “ride or die in Trump world” if he made the credit card payment, according to a dossier he compiled and shared with NewsNation. NewsNation reached out to Guilfoyle’s lawyer for comment. Jesse Binnall, a lawyer for Guilfoyle, told the Journal that the ambassador disputed the authenticity of the messages but declined to provide specifics. Binnall said Guilfoyle was owed a balance related to speaking events, which Deters disputed.

GOP donor in Guilfoyle scandal blasts Trump sons, Kushner: ‘I don’t like their yuck-yuck world’ The MAGA donor who Kimberly Guilfoyle, the U.S. ambassador to Greece, reportedly asked for payment ahead of her Senate confirmation hearing expressed frustration Thursday morning with the business dealings of President Trump’s family. The donor, attorney Eric Deters, said Guifoyle asked him to wire $100,000 ahead of the hearing and paid the president’s two oldest sons, Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump, a total of $300,000 in speaking fees, The Wall Street Journal first reported Wednesday. Deters told MS NOW’s Peter Alexander that he had “no issues” with these payments but expressed disapproval with their cryptocurrency ventures. “The only thing that bothers me about [Donald Trump Jr.] and Eric Trump is how they, along with their father, are getting rich out in the open with crypto and everything else,” he said. “President Trump said he hated crypto, his sons get in crypto, now he loves crypto.” Guilfoyle, California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s (D) ex-wife, was engaged to Trump Jr. until the two broke up in 2024. Deters also criticized Trump’s son-in-law and political adviser, Jared Kushner, for the controversial $2 billion his private equity firm received from Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund after leaving the first Trump administration. “I’m a Midwest farm boy. I’m a good dude. I don’t like their yuck-yuck world,” the donor said, adding, “You couldn’t pay me to go back to Mar-a-Lago.” Deters, who also contributed $125,000 to the PAC supporting Trump in 2022, has unsuccessfully run for Congress and Kentucky governor. The Journal reported Wednesday that Guilfoyle pleaded with Deters to send funds to her American Express account ahead of her July 9 confirmation hearing. He did not ultimately send the money and told her it would cause problems in his marriage. The GOP donor slammed the U.S. ambassador as “wicked, evil person” and a “grifter” during his interview with MS NOW. “Kimberly Guilfoyle, I have no doubt, has done this to more than me,” he said. “She’s doing it right now in Greece. I know Corey Lewandowski did this stuff. I know Kristi Noem did this stuff.” While Deters told MS NOW he would continue to support the president and MAGA candidates in elections, he “cannot stand Trump personally.” “One, I like most of his policies. Two, I cannot stand his megalomania, his egomania, his, you know, Mount Rushmore talk and arch talk,” Deters said, adding that he does support the president’s White House ballroom project. “Donald Trump loves billionaires and any MAGA politician,” the donor continued. “He doesn’t care about average rank-and-file people unless they’re for his votes.”

Guilfoyle’s $100K Scandal: List of Trump Allies Accused of Selling Access – Newsweek - Kimberly Guilfoyle, the U.S. ambassador to Greece and former fiancée of Donald Trump Jr., is facing allegations that she asked a wealthy Trump supporter to pay $100,000 toward her American Express bill in exchange for help reaching senior administration officials. Text messages first reported by The Wall Street Journal show Guilfoyle allegedly pressing longtime Trump donor Eric Deters for the money in July 2025, just days before her Senate confirmation hearing. The messages, which Deters provided to news organizations, have raised questions about whether a personal financial request crossed the line into an attempt to sell political access. The allegations have also revived scrutiny of other figures in Trump's political orbit, including individuals convicted of using their connections to pursue government appointments, lobby for foreign interests or obtain influence with the administration. Guilfoyle's attorney, Jesse Binnall, disputed the authenticity of the messages and said that her client was owed money for travel and speaking engagements before her nomination. Deters disputed owing her any balance. Newsweek has reached out to Guilfoyle's attorney, Deters, the State Department and the White House for further comment via email. According to the Journal, Guilfoyle contacted Deters on July 3, 2025, asking him to pay her American Express bill directly. Her Senate confirmation hearing to become ambassador to Greece was scheduled for July 9. The Journal reported that Guilfoyle wrote in a Signal message: “It won't show up anywhere if you wire money to American Express.” In another message, she allegedly pressed Deters to act quickly: “I have been officially announced honey please I need you to get this done for me today.” Deters said he understood the proposed financial assistance to be connected to Guilfoyle's willingness to use her political connections on his behalf. Deters, a former Republican congressional candidate and conservative media personality, had allegedly sought Guilfoyle's assistance with tax and legal issues, including efforts to draw federal attention to a dispute involving an Ohio surgeon who fled to Pakistan. He said he had previously paid her for speaking engagements and had discussed compensation for other work. Deters characterized the $100,000 request as an explicit exchange of money for influence. “I have no doubt it was pay to play," Deters told CBS, describing his interpretation of the messages. "It was a quid pro quo.” Deters did not make the $100,000 payment. He said he told Guilfoyle his wife wouldn't approve. He later told CBS that was an "excuse." Binnall has disputed the authenticity of the messages. The U.S. Embassy in Greece said in a statement to the Journal that Guilfoyle's career in and out of public service was guided by “deep and abiding values” and that she remained committed to representing the American people with dedication and integrity. Trump administration members have also commented on the allegations. Vice President JD Vance was asked about allegations on Thursday. While the reporter did not name Guilfoyle directly, they asked what he thought of a U.S. ambassador asking someone to pay off debt in exchange for access to other government officials. “Of course, I don't like anybody selling access to another government official. Certainly, a high-level government official," Vance responded. Secretary of State Marco Rubio was asked about the allegations while traveling in Greece. “I don't even know if it's true or not true,” Rubio said, before criticizing the assumption that published reports should automatically be accepted as fact. Guilfoyle's case is not the first time a person in Trump's political orbit has faced scrutiny over money, government appointments or the use of political connections. Several cases from the first Trump administration involved criminal conduct related to influence, foreign lobbying or efforts to obtain government positions.

• Stephen Calk: $16 Million in Loans for a Government Job. Stephen Calk, the former chief executive of The Federal Savings Bank, was convicted in 2021 of financial-institution bribery and conspiracy. According to the Justice Department, Calk arranged about $16 million in loans for Paul Manafort, Trump's former campaign chairman, in exchange for Manafort's help in securing a senior position in the incoming administration. Calk reportedly supplied a ranked list of positions he wanted, including Treasury secretary, deputy Treasury secretary and secretary of the Army. Prosecutors said he used the bank's lending power to secure personal benefits through Manafort's political connections. A federal jury found Calk guilty in July 2021. He was sentenced to one year and one day in prison in 2022.
• Elliott Broidy: Millions for Lobbying the Trump Administration. Elliott Broidy, a major Republican fundraiser and vice chairman of Trump's inaugural committee, pleaded guilty in October 2020 to conspiring to violate the Foreign Agents Registration Act. According to his plea, Broidy agreed to lobby Trump, the attorney general and other senior officials to drop civil forfeiture proceedings and related matters connected to the Malaysian state investment fund 1MDB. Broidy was paid at least $9 million by Malaysian businessman Jho Low for his efforts, according to the Justice Department. Broidy also agreed to lobby the administration on behalf of Chinese interests concerning a dissident living in the United States. The lobbying campaigns were ultimately unsuccessful, but the payments and undisclosed foreign representation formed the basis of the criminal case. Trump granted Broidy a full presidential pardon on January 19, 2021, before sentencing.
• George Nader: Foreign Contributions Intended to Obtain Political Access. George Nader, an adviser to senior United Arab Emirates officials, helped funnel millions of dollars in foreign money into U.S. political committees during the 2016 presidential election. The Justice Department said Nader and a business associate arranged transfers intended to facilitate unlawful campaign contributions to gain access to and influence with a presidential candidate and others. The scheme involved at least $3.5 million in unlawful contributions. After the election, the associate also made a $1 million contribution to Trump's inaugural committee and obtained inauguration tickets, bringing Nader into the wider story of foreign money and access surrounding the incoming administration. Nader was sentenced to an additional year and eight months in prison in 2023 for his role in the foreign-contribution scheme. He was also serving a separate prison sentence for unrelated child-sex offenses.
• Imaad Zuberi: Political Donations and Foreign Lobbying. Imaad Zuberi, a venture capitalist and political fundraiser who donated to candidates from both major parties, was sentenced to 12 years in federal prison in 2021. Zuberi pleaded guilty to offenses involving undisclosed foreign-agent activity, tax evasion, illegal campaign contributions and obstruction of justice. Prosecutors said he used foreign money to finance political contributions and then used the influence those contributions helped obtain to lobby U.S. officials on behalf of foreign principals. The Justice Department described his activities as turning unregistered foreign lobbying into a business enterprise.
• Michael Cohen: Accused of Offering Access to the Incoming Administration for $1 Million. Unlike the other cases, Michael Cohen, Trump's former personal attorney, was not convicted of his money-for-access allegations. Cohen was accused of soliciting at least $1 million from Qatar's government in late 2016 in exchange for access to and advice about the incoming Trump administration. The alleged offer was made during the transition period, and Qatar declined it, the Washington Post reported in 2018. Cohen allegedly discussed the proposed arrangement with a Qatari investor after a Trump Tower meeting involving Qatar's foreign minister and Michael Flynn, who later became Trump's first national security adviser. The reported solicitation was part of a broader consulting operation in which Cohen promoted his relationship with Trump to potential corporate clients. Companies allegedly paid him for consulting services, including advice about the administration and government policy. Cohen pleaded guilty in 2018 to multiple federal offenses, including campaign-finance violations, tax evasion and making false statements to a financial institution. However, those convictions did not establish that the reported Qatar solicitation itself was a criminal offense. There have been no convictions of Trump allies during his second term as of October 9, 2026, but several allegations have arisen against Trump allies or members of the administration.
• Tom Homan: $50,000 in a Closed Bribery Investigation. Tom Homan, Trump's border czar and a former acting director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement, became the subject of a controversy in 2025 after Reuters reported details of a bribery investigation that had been closed by the Justice Department. According to Reuters, Homan accepted $50,000 in cash from an undercover FBI agent in 2024 during an investigation into alleged promises to help secure future immigration-related government contracts after he returned to the Trump administration. Sources told Reuters that the transaction was recorded and that Homan had discussed keeping the money in a trust until he had completed his government service. The allegations concerned prospective contracting assistance rather than merely arranging meetings with officials. The investigation was closed in 2025. FBI Director Kash Patel and Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche said investigators had found “no credible evidence of any criminal wrongdoing” and described the probe as politically motivated. Homan was not charged in the matter.
• Donald Trump Jr.'s Wedding and Money From a Putin-Linked Russian Oligarch. Questions about money and access in Trump's political orbit have also extended to his family. A recent report by ProPublica found that Russian oligarch Umar Kremlev, a close associate of Russian President Vladimir Putin, financed substantial portions of Donald Trump Jr.'s lavish wedding celebration in the Bahamas. According to ProPublica, Kremlev paid hundreds of thousands of dollars in expenses associated with the three-day celebration, including the rental of a private island and a fireworks display. The event took place in May, following Trump Jr.'s wedding ceremony. Trump Jr. and his wife, Bettina, subsequently confirmed that Kremlev had hosted the post-wedding celebrations as a gift. Bettina described Kremlev as a “dear friend” in a social-media post. Kremlev told the Associated Press earlier this month that Trump Jr. had reimbursed him for the expenses. President Trump also said the debt had been repaid and defended the arrangement as a form of generosity between friends. Democrats have been highly critical of the gift, with Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer suggesting it was a "bribe." “You're dealing with a Russian oligarch, not just a cousin who's giving you a gift," he said. “Sometimes a wedding gift is a bribe from a foreign autocrat.” However, the wedding expenses, as reported, do not by themselves establish that Kremlev purchased political access, that Trump Jr. promised government favors or that a crime occurred. The couple characterized the spending as a personal gift, and the reported reimbursement is a material part of the account. Newsweek has reached out to the Trump Organization for comment.

Watch: We Uncovered Bribery Allegations Involving Susan Collins —  In late 2024, FBI investigators had enough evidence to launch a sweeping bribery probe that could ensnare top lawmakers, including Sen. Susan Collins. The agency was examining interactions between Collins and a top donor: Martin Kao, CEO of defense contractor Navatek. According to Kao, in 2019, the head of the pro-Collins super PAC met with him and other Navatek execs and asked for a $500,000 donation. Government contractors are banned from making political contributions. For the company to offer donations to Collins in exchange for an official action, or for Collins to accept, would constitute criminal bribery.To skirt campaign finance laws and conceal the source of the funds, Kao sent an initial $150,000 to the super PAC using a shell company, saying he had cleared it with his lawyer. The head of the super PAC knew Kao was behind the donation. “Very smart,” he replied in an email viewed by ProPublica.Weeks later, Kao told his team Collins committed to getting the company $32 million in naval contracts. But the FBI saw through Kao’s shell company ruse. In 2022, a grand jury indicted him for making illegal campaign contributions. Facing years in prison, Kao revealed the full scheme to the FBI, hoping to reduce his sentence. What he told them has never before become public. Kao and his close associates donated nearly $900,000 to dozens of politicians, allowing Navatek to establish operations in half a dozen states with more than $40 million a year in government funds. Collins, Kao said, was Navatek’s most important patron.Then President Donald Trump returned to office — and the FBI and Department of Justice teams that handled public corruption cases were eviscerated. The investigation died, and the government stopped talking to an informant who had offered a road map to corruption in Congress.ProPublica revealed the existence of the case for the first time.Collins’ deputy chief of staff said that her office “vigorously” denies allegations of bribery and pay-for-play made by Kao and that her office “fully cooperated” with the FBI. After our story was published, the senator mustered a defense that was full of incorrect and misleading claims, calling ProPublica’s reporting a “smear job” that took “the words of a twice-convicted felon over my office, campaign staff and me.” ProPublica reviewed a trove of evidence gathered by the FBI and thousands of pages of legal records, and interviewed dozens of people familiar with Navatek, its Washington operations and the FBI inquiry to conduct our own investigation. The White House referred us to the FBI. A spokesperson said the FBI “ultimately found nothing implicating Senator Collins” or her campaign. The FBI spokesperson did not address questions about the new phase of the investigation prompted by Kao’s account.Navatek founder Steven Loui said Kao’s methods were “unethical and illegal” and that the company fully complied with law enforcement.Watch our video to learn more on how we independently corroborated much of Kao’s account.

Mike Johnson floats return to Louisiana if GOP loses majority in midterms - Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) floated the idea of returning home to Louisiana if Republicans lose control of the House next year. “Heaven forbid, if we lose this majority or whatever, I don’t know what my next chapter of life is,” Johnson told Fox News in an exclusive interview. “If God moves on our hearts and says we should, you know, go back to my hometown of Shreveport and start a lawn business, I’ll do that with equal fervor. I mean, I just want to be of my highest and best use to God and to my country.” Johnson’s remarks come as Republicans confront a difficult political landscape marked by voter frustration over rising gas and grocery prices, President Trump’s low approval ratings and the historical headwinds facing the president’s party in the midterm elections. Decision Desk HQ forecasts that Democrats are favored to win back the House next year. Johnson’s Speakership has often been rocky, marked by internal GOP fighting, a razor-thin margin and repeated challenges in keeping his conference unified behind the president’s agenda. The latest remarks represent perhaps the furthest Johnson has gone in publicly addressing his political future. Asked about Johnson’s comments during a presser on Thursday, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) said, “Well, he’ll ultimately have to make a decision about what comes next. I can say that the American people are about to retire Mike Johnson and the Republican majority in the House and possibly even in the Senate.” Lance Trover, Johnson’s spokesperson, meanwhile, wrote on the social platform X that, “All the DC speculation about the Speaker because he dared to speculate about his potential future in the lawn care business is hilarious.” “Not that I believe he’d be bad at it, but allowing it to overshadow the massive fundraising numbers announced this morning or the insane travel schedule he’s doing to keep the majority seems to be nothing short of trying to drive a contrived narrative,” he wrote. Johnson also told Fox News he is going to be the Speaker in the next Congress, when asked whether he will run for minority leader if Republicans lose the House.

Crypto super PAC to back candidates in 32 House races -- A major cryptocurrency super PAC is backing candidates in 32 House races with one month to go until the midterm elections. Fairshake is throwing its weight behind 13 Democrats and 19 Republicans, spokesperson Geoff Vetter confirmed to The Hill on Monday. The super PAC is spending $1 million each on six candidates — Reps. Janelle Bynum (D-Ore.), Steven Horsford (D-Nev.), Derek Tran (D-Calif.), French Hill (R-Ark.), Bill Huizenga (R-Mich.) and Bryan Steil (R-Wis.). Hill chairs the House Financial Services Committee, while Steil leads the panel’s digital assets subcommittee, with both championing efforts to pass crypto legislation. Huizenga and Horsford are also prominent voices in the digital asset space. “Fairshake has always been and always will be an issue-focused organization,” Vetter said in a statement. “We back pro-crypto candidates who support American innovation in both parties.” “We’ve won 53 of the 57 races we engaged in this cycle and look forward to continuing to build on the largest pro-crypto caucus in American history,” he continued. Among the Republicans receiving Fairshake’s support are several other key players on digital assets, including Majority Whip Tom Emmer (Minn.), House Agriculture Committee Chair Glenn Thompson (Pa.) and House Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (Mo.). The crypto super PAC is also backing GOP Reps. Ben Cline (Va.), Troy Downing (Mont.), Michelle Fischbach (Minn.), Scott Fitzgerald (Wis.), Mike Haridopolos (Fla.), Pat Harrigan (N.C.), Brian Jack (Ga.), Frank Lucas (Okla.), Lisa McClain (Mich.), August Pfluger (Texas), Guy Reschenthaler (Pa.), David Rouzer (N.C.) and Austin Scott (Ga.). The other Democrats receiving its support are Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar (Calif.) and Reps. Brendan Boyle (Pa.), Josh Gottheimer (N.J.), Jonathan Jackson (Ill.), Lucy McBath (Ga.), Sarah McBride (Del.), Jimmy Panetta (Calif.), Hillary Scholten (Mich.), Terri Sewell (Ala.) and Suhas Subramanyam (Va.). Fairshake’s support for Democrats is notable after a key crypto bill failed to clear a procedural hurdle in the Senate last month. Every Democrat and a handful of Republicans blocked the measure from advancing in the upper chamber, much to the dismay of the industry, raising questions about whether it would turn its ire on Democrats in the midterms. But Fairshake, which still had $108 million in cash on hand as of the end of August, appears keen to signal support on both sides of the aisle.

Trump defends data centers in Ohio as he rallies to boost Jon Husted in tight Senate race -— President Donald Trump on Saturday defended data centers that power artificial intelligence projects but have become a contentious campaign issue nationwide, as he took his midterm tour to Ohio to insist his party will keep its majorities in Congress despite steep political headwinds. Trump took several minutes during his campaign rally in southwestern Ohio to promote his administration’s action on data centers, saying he was seeking to ensure they “benefit local communities” and praising Republican Sen. Jon Husted for an ill-fated attempt to push forward legislation on the issue. “Look, there’s so much money to be made for Ohio. You can’t just turn them off. They’ll go to China,” Trump said, repeating his defense of data centers that he had made before. The crowd, which had reacted enthusiastically as the president talked about other policies, was far more muted during the data centers remark. The massive warehouse campuses generating energy for AI projects have become a toxic political issue, drawing bipartisan opposition in races across the country, with voters concerned about their impact on electricity prices, farmland and water supplies. It’s become especially acute in Ohio, where Husted has been repeatedly attacked for his role in attracting data centers to Ohio as lieutenant governor. Trump is embarking on what he says will be a 32-day blitz ahead of the Nov. 3 elections, hitting the deep red states of Texas, Oklahoma and Alabama this week before pivoting to Ohio, a battleground state that’s home to one of the top-tier Senate races this cycle. Husted — who was appointed to fill the Senate vacancy left by now-Vice President JD Vance — is running to win the seat outright. There is likely no path to a Senate majority for Democrats without flipping Ohio, where former three-term Sen. Sherrod Brown is trying to return to the Senate after losing to Republican Bernie Moreno two years ago. Since last year, Democrats have listed Ohio, along with states such as North Carolina and Maine, as key races to win control of the Senate. And this past week, the head of the Senate GOP’s campaign arm said Ohio is among 10 battleground races that are “within striking distance.” “The good news for us is that Jon Husted is a closer,” Sen. Tim Scott, the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, told reporters. “We’re seeing the gap that was there between the two candidates, which was just a few points, now it is right at a dead-even race. So this is as tight as ticks, as we say in South Carolina.” At his rallies, Trump has been trying to convince voters that the economy is better than they feel it is, even though polls show Americans are frustrated with the way he’s handled it. The high cost of living, including gas prices elevated by Trump’s war on Iran, is a top issue in the Dayton area, too. And just days before Trump’s rally, nearly 1,400 people were laid off from a truck factory in nearby Springfield. “Your state is booming. Every — I hate to say it — every state is booming,” Trump insisted Saturday. “They’re all booming.” Trump’s rally comes as Republicans worry that Husted’s campaign has failed to adequately catch fire with voters in the Republican-dominated state. Brown and allied groups have hammered Husted for his data-centers role, and the NRSC has pinpointed it as a political vulnerability. The GOP-controlled Senate tried to advance legislation this past week sponsored by Husted that would ask utility regulators to effectively charge large power users more, as consumers struggle with high energy costs. But it was blocked by nearly all Democrats. “You got to remember, Sherrod Brown was for data centers, and Jon Husted is for data centers being responsible,” Scott told reporters this week. “If a community doesn’t want them, he doesn’t want them either.” But Trump has become one of data centers’ most vocal proponents, shrugging aside voter concerns and arguing that the U.S. cannot cede advancements in AI to China. “Senator Jon Husted gave billions in tax breaks to Big Tech to make sure they would build their data centers in Ohio,” Brown wrote on X on Friday, ahead of Trump’s visit. “Now, he’s making Ohioans foot the bill.” Brown’s campaign also has hammered Husted for donations he’s received from retail magnate Les Wexner, who once employed the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Husted has donated remaining Wexner contributions to an anti-human trafficking charity. There were several Epstein-themed signs outside the Vandalia school where the rally was being held, as more than a hundred protesters lined the road with a slew of anti-Trump and anti-Husted signs. But inside the school’s gymnasium, the boisterous crowd — decked out in red “Make America Great Again” hats and “Trump 47” jerseys — greeted each Republican candidate enthusiastically as they awaited the president’s arrival. From the stage, Husted said the state had been through “hard times,” noting his dad had worked at a factory that closed down. But he said Republicans in the state had turned it around. “We now have the most jobs and the lowest unemployment rate we’ve ever had in the history of Ohio,” he said. Meanwhile, in the governor’s race, Republican Vivek Ramaswamy faces Democrat Dr. Amy Acton, the state’s former COVID-era health director. A wealthy biotech entrepreneur and 2024 presidential candidate, Ramaswamy’s star appeal among conservatives led to quick backing by Ohio Republicans and hopes of an easy victory in the Republican-dominated state. However, despite a massive fundraising lead and more than $12 million spent in campaign advertising, he is now locked in a close fight with Acton with weeks to go until Election Day.

Trump Defends Data Centers At Ohio Rally Amid Backlash, Warns ‘They’ll Go To China’ If US Pulls Back — 'So Much Money To Be Made'  - Trump dismissed concerns about the industry Saturday, framing data centers as an economic opportunity for states such as Ohio. He also praised a bill backed by Republican Senator Jon Husted that seeks to address concerns over rising electricity costs linked to large power users. Trump has previously taken an even harder line against critics, saying communities that reject data centers risk becoming "backwards and poor." President Donald Trump on Saturday defended the U.S. data center boom at an Ohio rally, warning that pulling back on the massive facilities powering the artificial intelligence industry would risk sending the investment as well as jobs to China. According to a report by The New York Times, Trump was addressing voters during a campaign in Ohio for Senator Jon Husted. Trump has repeatedly argued that the U.S. must rapidly expand AI infrastructure to maintain its lead over China. He again dismissed concerns about the industry Saturday, framing data centers as an economic opportunity for states such as Ohio. "Look, there's so much money to be made for Ohio, you can't just turn them off. They'll go to China," he said. Trump also praised a bill backed by Husted that seeks to address concerns over rising electricity costs linked to large power users. Democrats blocked the measure in a procedural vote last week, with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer calling it "toothless." The U.S. President has previously taken an even harder line against critics, saying communities that reject data centers risk becoming "backwards and poor." "The only reason that communities throughout the U.S.A. should not want Data Centers is if they want to end up being backwards and poor. If they want to be successful and rich, with far lower taxes and jobs all over the place, let Data Reign," he said in a Truth Social post in August. This comes days after Trump and several leaders from the AI industry signed a pact to establish voluntary standards for AI. Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang, Meta Platforms Inc. (META) CEO Mark Zuckerberg, Tesla Inc. (TSLA) and Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) CEO Elon Musk, Anthropic's Dario Amodei, OpenAI's Greg Brockman, and others were also present at the event. Trump also reiterated his support for rapid expansion of data centers in the country, noting that technology companies would work to make local communities around data centers "happy" about their construction.

Voters Will Soon Decide the Fate of America's Trillion Dollar AI Buildout - Today we’re publishing The Geography of Compute, our report on where companies are building data centers in the US and why. Today’s story comes from the report’s final section, on the 2026 midterms. If you’re interested in the full report, reach out to learn more about Cleanview’s research subscription. If you’re a journalist, contact us here.  Data centers have become one of the biggest issues of the 2026 midterms. Since January, campaigns and outside groups have spent more than $45 million on ads that mention data centers, according to an NPR analysis of AdImpact data. In Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown is running ads that call Republican Sen. Jon Husted “the face of data centers in Ohio.” In Michigan, Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers backs a one-year moratorium on new data centers. In Texas, both Senate candidates want to end the state’s sales tax break for data centers. But the near-term future of data centers in America won’t be determined by Congressional midterm elections. Instead, the fate of America’s AI buildout depends on races further down the ballot.President Trump has made his support for data centers clear. Last month he wrote that towns fighting data centers are choosing to be “backwards and poor.” When Texas’ Governor, Greg Abbott, paused data center approvals in August, Trump called the decision “a mistake.” The President’s support and veto power would make it difficult for Congress to pass any meaningful legislation that regulates data center development.At the state level, the picture is very different. Governors and state legislators have significant power to block, slow, or otherwise regulate data center development. They can pass moratoriums, strip tax breaks, appoint new utility regulators, and require more stringent environmental and labor standards.In our latest report, we found that ten close governor’s races will set the rules for 67.4 GW of planned data centers. That’s more than the 62.7 GW of data centers operating in the entire US today. We estimate that this represents more than $2 trillion of potential AI infrastructure investment.None of these projects have started construction yet, which means the next governor could still decide whether, and on what terms, they get built.No state with a close governor’s race has more planned data center capacity than Ohio. Developers have announced 21.9 GW of data centers there that haven’t yet broken ground. The Columbus area is already one of the fastest-growing data center markets in the country.Both candidates for governor say they’d slow that growth down. Republican Vivek Ramaswamy says that on his first day in office, he would “immediately halt the approval of any new data center projects” until his data center law passes. Under his plan, data centers would have to give nearby residents free electricity or compensation and pay full property taxes. Democrat Amy Acton backs a moratorium until data centers pay 100% of their utility costs, among other conditions.The current governor, Mike DeWine, has already paused new data center tax exemptions.No race in the country has seen more spending on ads that mention data centers than Georgia’s race for governor where candidates have spent $12.8 million, according to NPR. Developers have announced 15.1 GW of data centers in Georgia that haven’t started construction.Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms wants a temporary statewide pause on new data center construction. “Let us take a pause, assess fully, assess comprehensively, assess the impact that these data centers are having on our environment, on our utility bills,” she said, according to the Georgia Recorder.Republican Rick Jackson wants to leave the decision to local officials. “Every community should decide,” he has said.OpenAI has more data center capacity at risk this fall than any other company. Most of the data centers OpenAI is building today are in Texas, which doesn’t have a close governor’s race. But its next wave is in the states that do. OpenAI has 14.1 GW planned in states with a close governor’s race, 84% of everything it has planned.  In Pike County, Ohio, SB Energy is building a 10 GW campus for OpenAI, one of the three largest data center projects we track. It sits partly on land owned by the Department of Energy, and the US government will own the 9.2 GW of gas generation built to power it. That could limit what a new governor can do.But the campus still depends on state approvals. SB Energy is paying $4.2 billion for new high-voltage lines through AEP Ohio, a utility overseen by regulators the governor appoints. The first 800 MW is expected online in 2028.  In Effingham County, Georgia, about 45 minutes outside Savannah, OpenAI is developing Project Camellia, a $20 billion, 3.2 GW campus. That project isn’t yet under construction. If Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms wins and follows through on her pause, the project could see significant delays. The Cook Political Report rates the election a toss up.Over the last few months, there has been a lot of talk about slowing down AI development and “pacing the frontier.” Many proposals laid out by labs and policymakers have focused on the speed at which models are released. Next month, voters may force a different kind of slowdown and pace the speed at which compute is built. The midterms are one part of The Geography of Compute. Here’s what’s inside the full report:

Ohio Has Half of US Data Center Ballot Measures in Midterms - Data centers have emerged as a defining issue in the 2026 midterm elections, with Ohio accounting for more than half of the data center-related measures being considered by voters across the United States.According to Ballotpedia’s nationwide tracker, voters in eight states (Ohio, Illinois, Wisconsin, Kansas, California, Michigan, Nevada, and Florida) will decide on at least 39 local ballot measures related to data centers in 2026.Ohio alone accounts for 21 of those measures across 18 jurisdictions, more than half of the national total. Illinois has seven measures, while Wisconsin and Kansas each have three. California has two, while Michigan, Nevada and Florida each have one. 35 of the 39 measures are scheduled for the November 3 general election, while voters decided on the other four earlier in the year. In all four, the outcomes favored greater restrictions on data center development, either by approving new limits or rejecting proposals that would have supported development.In terms of Ohio, voters will consider proposals ranging from outright prohibitions on large data centers to zoning referendums, financial-guarantee requirements, and measures requiring public approval before developments can proceed.Several initiatives would prohibit facilities whose electricity demand exceeds 25 megawatts, the same threshold used in a proposed statewide constitutional amendment certified by the Ohio Ballot Board in April. The 21 Ohio measures identified by Ballotpedia are:

OpenAI’s AI accessed government files, and its disclosure email was weirdly cheerful -- OpenAI had an oddly casual way of apologizing to the Australian Government to explain how one of its experimental AI agents gained unauthorized access to a government health statistics system while trying to complete a routine research task. More casual than one might expect for such a huge security concern. The agent was looking for publicly available information about medicine spending, but after failing to get what it wanted through the normal route, it found a vulnerability in and used it to access internal files, though no individual patient records. The incident is a striking example of the risks that come with increasingly autonomous AI agents, but almost as striking is how OpenAI admitted what happened. OpenAI says it discovered the Australian activity in mid-August but did not notify Australia until September 10. When it finally did, the company sent a brief, almost jaunty email about it, as shared on LinkedIn by an ABC reporter: "We are notifying you of a security vulnerability identified during our review of OpenAI model activity involving Services Australia’s Medicare Statistics service," the email begins before explaining what happened. "We recommend that the team responsible for the service investigate the vulnerability and assess the changes needed to prevent it. We would be glad to brief your security team and provide supporting evidence as available." The message ends with "Best," though the letter hardly feels like it means it. The model was researching government spending per person on medicines for skin conditions in communities in Victoria in June. It was supposed to find publicly available statistics. Instead, it discovered a route into the Medicare Statistics Reporting Service that gave it non-public access. Essentially, the model asked for information it shouldn't have access to and took the denial as a sign to find another way in. The ethics of the matter did not arise. "We did not intend for this activity to occur, and the access to the service and follow-on activity should not have happened," OpenAI wrote in its follow-up explanation. The timing makes the note considerably worse as, while OpenAI discovered in July what happened in June, it did not notify Services Australia until September 10. That means the most significant delay was between discovery and disclosure. OpenAI now admits it still waited too long. In its expanded apology, the company said it should have shared preliminary findings sooner and kept Australian agencies updated as it learned more. While using the public disclosures email is legitimate for the average person finding a security flaw, it seems odd for a company of OpenAI's size to report its own model's error this way. The apology also revealed that Medicare was only part of the story. OpenAI said its models had interacted with several Australian government services during training and evaluation. An agent accessed the NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research's public Crime Mapping Tool, while agents found an exposed access key associated with a Victorian health reporting system and retrieved configuration information and aggregate survey statistics. OpenAI said no individual medical or criminal records were accessed in those incidents. But OpenAI later expanded its response, adding that a model researching wildfire statistics had used crafted queries against the NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service's Fire History service to infer database metadata that was not intended to be publicly exposed. The growing list makes the Medicare incident harder to dismiss as a quirky model finding a single vulnerability. It suggests experimental agents were repeatedly interacting with real websites in ways their creators did not expect. OpenAI itself has responded by pausing training and evaluation involving tool use for its most capable models until additional safeguards are in place.

Reflection AI unveils Beam model to rival China on open source - The open-source startup Reflection AI released its first open-weight model Monday, stating it rivals leading open technologies made in the U.S. and China.Reflection AI, which has the backing of tech giant Nvidia, said in a blog post Monday its Beam model is on par with some leading open-source models made in China, including Chinese AI startup Z.ai’s GLM-5.2 model, while it’s close to Alibaba’s Qwen3.8-Max.Reflection, founded by two former Google DeepMind researchers, described Beam as a “powerful workhorse model,” adding it was designed for coding and agentic tasks and reasoning to break down complex problems.The release comes amid concerns over China’s massive build-out of open-source technologies, which are then sold to people and enterprises around the world for cheaper rates. But with cheap costs also come potentially less secure models, prompting scrutiny around national security implications.Unlike private models hosted by firms like OpenAI or Anthropic, open-source systems are often smaller or more fine-tuned and live in the public domain. This gives virtually anyone or any company access to download and customize the model for a wide range of uses.

ChatGPT’s hidden infrastructure is growing fast - and it comes with a huge power bill -TED video - AI may feel like software, but behind every prompt is a massive physical system of server racks, GPUs, cooling equipment, water, and electricity. Some AI data centers use as much power as 300,000 homes, and future facilities could become even larger as companies race to train more powerful models. Engineers are exploring liquid cooling, photonic chips, smaller specialized models, and even dedicated nuclear power to keep up with demand. The bigger question is how many resources society is willing to spend to make AI smarter.

Inside the big-money business of protecting data centers - After Iranian drones struck three Amazon.com data centers in the Middle East this March, Austin Storms, the co-head of data centers at Galaxy Digital, got a call from the C-suite. Erin Brown, Galaxy’s chief operating officer, wanted to know what the company was doing to prepare for similar attacks. S Galaxy is developing a 2,200-acre artificial-intelligence campus in Dickens County, Texas—not exactly within Iran’s range. But with trillions of dollars at stake in today’s AI race, people like Storms and Brown can’t leave anything to chance. Developers are spending big on physical security as data centers become larger and more valuable, turning once-sleepy facilities into fortresses. The investments go beyond barbed wire and part-time guards. Developers are using drones and facial-recognition technology, coordinating with local law enforcement, and hiring veterans and former police officers. That trend has created a new market for security companies more accustomed to selling to police departments or the Pentagon. With a construction rush under way and the backlash against AI potentially keeping some new projects from getting approved, these vendors’ window of opportunity may be short—so too investors’ chances to profit. Galaxy expects to spend eight figures in annual security costs once its Texas campus is fully constructed. Data-center developer Applied Digital, which has three facilities in development, likewise allocates $6 million to $10 million a year to security at a typical two-building site. That is just a fraction of total operating costs, but bear in mind there are 1,318 data centers operating in the U.S. and 2,299 planned projects, according to market researcher Cleanview. Among those, the newest AI facilities present a different security challenge than the storage or web-hosting data centers dotted across the country. To start, they can be enormous, making foot patrols less feasible than in a more contained environment. Galaxy pointed to its facial-recognition system, which identifies and logs every figure that crosses a camera at the site. Applied Digital, meanwhile, uses an array of cameras and drones at its facilities; it even ran a trial with—but hasn’t deployed—robot patrol dogs. The value of the data centers’ contents is an even more important reason for all the fancy security measures. The chips and servers inside the facilities, and the AI model running on them, are worth enormous sums of money. In discussions with potential customers, security has become “table stakes,” says Applied Digital CEO Wes Cummins. While the drone strikes against Amazon made clear that data centers have become “critical infrastructure,” to use security jargon, widespread opposition to AI data centers has brought developers’ worst fears closer to home. The pushback against data centers has remained peaceful in nearly all cases, and no one Barron’s spoke to suggested some kind of violent incident is imminent. But developers are still watching online chatter for threats or signs of trouble. “We take everything very seriously,” says Cummins. “The issue is if you have something happen, it can have a very large impact.” A Utah data center being developed by QTS was evacuated in April after a bomb threat. Earlier that month, a gunman shot 13 bullets into the house of Indianapolis councilman Ron Gibson, who had expressed support for a proposed data center in the city. Ondas, which has contracts with the U.S. and Israeli militaries, is pitching its drone surveillance and counterdrone technologies to commercial customers. “Robots work 24 hours a day, they’re always on demand, they don’t call in sick, they don’t get hurt,” explains Ondas CEO Eric Brock. A full counterdrone system, which can identify and sometimes neutralize unwanted drones flying overhead, could cost anywhere from the low six figures to “multiples of that,” Brock adds. Ondas doesn’t have contracts with the largest data-center companies yet, but it has struck security deals with semiconductor manufacturers. Birdstop, which makes drones equipped with thermal infrared cameras and laser range-finders, started to count data centers as part of its core business this year, says CEO Keith Miao. The venture-backed start-up exclusively serves nonmilitary sites like power plants and telecom infrastructure, so securing AI sites was a natural fit. Axon Enterprise is jumping on the opportunity, too, pitching its Dedrone airspace-security solution to data centers and other private-sector facilities, such as stadiums, corporate campuses, and even CEO’s houses. The company is best known for making Tasers, body cameras, and license-plate recognition monitors for police. “Every data center understands, especially with now some of the rising controversy around data centers, that any disgruntled person with a 3-D printer, access to a drone, and the internet could build something that could cause real problems,” Axon CEO Rick Smith said on an earnings call in August. Security systems, much like hard drives or copper wire, are cheap relative to the chips and servers they enable. What seems like a small amount of money to tech companies can therefore be substantial for some suppliers. Data-center spending isn’t even close to peaking, so the argument goes, and each new construction project that breaks ground could mean millions of dollars in security money.

Controversy swirls over abrupt firing of OpenAI safety team members involved in the Hugging Face hack investigation -A debate is playing out on social media, and inside the walls of OpenAI, about why the company fired three individuals last week on its safety team. Now, the former employees, as well as OpenAI, have issued additional statements to clarify their sides of the story. Two of the fired researchers—Tomek Korbak and Mikita Balesni—worked on OpenAI’s investigation of the Hugging Face incident. Korbak was the technical point of contact for METR, the third-party research firm that OpenAI asked to conduct an independent audit of the incident. The third dismissed employee, Jasmine Wang, was a program manager on OpenAI’s safety team. The Wall Street Journal first reported the dismissals on Oct. 1. At that time, OpenAI said the “individuals mishandled sensitive information outside established company procedures, violating our policies and breaking the trust essential to our work.” Since then, there appears to have been continued conversation and controversy among the ranks at OpenAI, prompting the three former employees to coauthor a four-page letter, published on Oct. 8. The letter responds to “various versions of events circulating” among OpenAI staffers, and refers to ongoing “internal and external communications” about the firing that the former employees say is making current employees “afraid to speak” up.“Terminations such as ours, executed and communicated so abruptly, are chilling the open culture OpenAI has prized in the past,” the letter says. “It is that culture we are writing to defend.” The two biggest themes in the letter address OpenAI’s ability to monitor its advanced models and its engagement with third-party safety organizations, such as METR. The former employees deny they leaked concerns about the ability to monitor OpenAI’s latest Astra model to The Information, which published a Sept. 1 article about it. Second, they deny any foul play in their communications with METR. The staffers urge OpenAI to preserve the ability to closely monitor its advanced models; to adhere to its commitment to embed third-party safety auditors within the organization; and to foster an open and transparent culture.“We are concerned that our firings may be used to justify ending OpenAI’s work with METR, or otherwise providing external auditors much more limited access and scope,” the letter says. OpenAI has not disclosed the specific reasons for the firing, but told Fortune it found a pattern of misconduct from the three employees, including a number of violations that clearly violated its policies for handling information. It did not link the firings to its communications with METR or the Hugging Face incident. Each former employee gave their own brief explanation this week in social media posts that link to the joint letter.Korbak said OpenAI told him verbally, not in writing, that he “was fired because of the way I communicated with METR.”“Last week I was called into a meeting with OpenAI’s head of safety and told they no longer trust me. A security guard took my badge and walked me out of the building,” Korbak said. “Talking to METR was my job.”Wang said the reason OpenAI gave her was that she accessed an unnamed executive’s email. She said the company gave her that access for recruiting, and when she no longer needed it, she asked IT to remove it, but they did not complete her request. “We were not the first to be pushed out of OpenAI under suspicious circumstances,” Wang said. “Unless the employees take a stand now against this kind of maneuver, I am concerned we will not be the last. The message to everyone still at OpenAI is clear: Raise concerns or work closely with outside safety groups, and you could be next, without being told why.”Balesni said he and his fellow researchers “were fired for prioritizing safety over the near-term interests of OpenAI as a corporation.”In response to the letter, OpenAI sent an internal memo to employees, as well as put out a public statement. “Our internal investigation uncovered a significant breach of trust beyond what’s outlined in the letter they published, and we stand by the decision to not continue their employment,” the company said.But a lack of clarity about what exactly the employees did, or may have shared with METR, has fueled speculation about what happened. (METR did not respond to Fortune’s request for comment.)“I can’t really see a world where OpenAI’s actions are justified here,” said Neel Nanda, a Google DeepMind employee who was formerly at Anthropic. “Firing people over a good faith attempt to use their best judgment in a novel and uncertain situation is a sign of a highly unhealthy culture.”

Researchers Develop AI 'Mind-Reading' Tool That Reconstructs What Your Eyes See - A cutting-edge new artificial intelligence (AI) tool can reconstruct images from a person's vision simply by analyzing brain scans. The technology recreates a person's visual field with startling accuracy and can also predict brain activity by analyzing what a person is looking at in real time. Professor Michal Irani of the Weizmann Institute of Science developed the "mind-reading" AI model Brain-IT, which interprets functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) scans of participants' brain activity as they view a series of images. Irani and her team- released their research on Sept. 14. While the current study used fixed images, Irani's lab plans to test these so-called mind-reading methods on participants' hearing and, eventually, on video. "What remains especially challenging is decoding video - for example, during dreaming," Irani said in a statement. "Dozens of images change every second, while an fMRI scan takes about two seconds. If we overcome all these obstacles, it's possible that in the future we may even be able to read dreams." The study reviewed fMRI scans of eight participants who had viewed thousands of images across 30 to 40 scanning sessions. Participants viewed around 40 images over roughly 10-minute sessions as researchers scanned their brains six times. This created roughly 73,000 image-fMRI pairs for the AI model to analyze. Irani said other models can translate brain activity into images with "impressive reconstructions," but that they often make basic composition and color errors. "The new model we developed outperforms them in reconstructing both the content of the image and its details," she said. "What's more, while every other model requires dozens of hours of brain scans to learn to 'read' a new person, our model needs only one hour," she said. Scientists have been working on similar technology for years. A paper published in the Journal of Law and the Biosciences in 2017 discussed the possibility of reaching "brain-based mind reading" with neuroimaging techniques. The paper described how these techniques could be used for lie detection to assess defendants, prisoners, and prospective jurors in court cases to improve the legal system. However, it also notes that brain-based mind reading could have potentially unethical coercive uses. Improvements in the signal data produced by fMRI machines and in how humans analyze that data in recent years have made this technology possible, according to Kenneth Norman, a psychology and neuroscience professor at Princeton University. In a discussion with the American Psychological Association in 2022, Norman said the technology could help people with depression or anxiety. Therapists could use neurofeedback to make participants aware that their thinking has drifted toward negative thought loops and then give them direction to try to control those mental patterns, he said. Some neuroscientists have heralded the capabilities of Brain-IT's AI model, highlighting how it could therapeutically help people suffering from neurological conditions. But others have raised concerns about how the technology could be abused to coercively extract information from a person's mind.

OpenAI insider tells NYT’s Ezra Klein they’ve created ‘alien mind’ - A former safety official with OpenAI described the technology as an “alien mind” as The New York Times’ Ezra Klein pushed him to define exactly what that means amid growing concerns about the rapidly progressing tech. David Robinson, who previously worked on OpenAI’s Safety Systems team and was the head of safety transparency, joined Klein on The Ezra Klein Show on Wednesday to discuss his recent resignation from OpenAI. In an Atlantic op-ed, Robinson described the culture around the AI industry as “broken,” warning companies are prioritizing rapid progress over necessary safety precautions.“I believe in humanity. I think we are going to survive. I think there are a lot of things that could happen with this technology that could be very, very harmful,” Robinson told Klein.Klein noted that tech leaders have very different descriptions of what AI is, saying some describe it as simply “software” while others call it an “alien mind.”“So what is it, man?” he asked.“An alien mind,” Robinson said. He explained: It is a thing we grew. We did not engineer it. We engineered the systems around it that grew and then try to keep it safe. We grew a mind. Fundamentally, nobody knows why pre-training works, which is the big hard part where we take lots of inputs and create this basically intelligent thing. Then we bolt on stuff and we put do post-training, these other things to make it more useful. But this is just a thing that is observed to work, that we do.Concerns about AI have grown as more and more leaders in the industry have warned about the technology’s quick progress.Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei recently warned that we “must slow down the pace” of AI, claiming rogue AI agents could take over the entire internet within a year if the right safety measures and oversight are not placed on the industry.That warning followed Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon resigning and warning AI could “kill us all” within a decade. Watch above via The Ezra Klein Show.

Anthropic’s announcement of a ‘Claude-led’ CRISPR-like discovery is sparking controversy. Here’s why --AI executives are betting big on biology. They say their large language models that have already dramatically changed the fields of coding and software development and mathematics can upend biological research in the same way. But one company’s attempt to do so has already set off a wave of skepticism and controversy. Anthropic, the AI and research giant behind Claude, last month said its biology research lab had used AI agents to discover an unusual pattern of DNA in the genetic code of viruses, specifically a “novel enzyme system.” The signature is similar to the microbial system harnessed in gene-editing tools such as CRISPR Cas-9, which is used to modify the DNA of living organisms. The technology is commonplace in labs around the world and won the Nobel Prize in chemistry for its inventors in 2020 Dario Amodei, the chief executive of Anthropic, said on social media the finding offered great scientific potential. “Today we announced the Claude-led discovery of a molecular machine that we suspect could represent a new gene editing mechanism,” he wrote on X. Anthropic said the discovery had been made “with only high-level direction from our scientists” and shares of companies developing gene-editing technology fell shortly after the announcement.. However, some experts not involved in the work said the finding was early and incremental, and far from a genuine breakthrough. “These are very interesting preliminary results, but at this point they don’t demonstrate gene editing or provide a mechanistic picture of exactly what’s happening,” said Aaron Engelhart, an associate professor at the University of Minnesota’s Department of Genetics, Cell Biology, and Development. The Anthropic researchers have not determined what the newfound viral sequences actually do and thus whether they represent a mechanism that has practical applications similar to those used in CRISPR tools, according to a document detailing the research. The research also has not been published in a peer-reviewed scientific journal. Scientists, including Engelhart, said Anthropic’s finding definitely warrants further investigation, and a news release from the company quoted Feng Zhang — a professor at MIT and the Broad Institute in Cambridge, Massachusetts and a pioneer of CRISPR genome editing for sickle cell disease treatment among other advances — who called the work “genuinely intriguing.” But just days after Anthropic’s announcement, Mario Rodríguez Mestre, who said he used Claude extensively for his recently completed doctoral research at the University of Copenhagen, claimed his unpublished research describes the same viral signatures. “It is essentially the same finding. This is not simply a case of two groups studying related protein families or similar biological systems,” Mestre told CNN via email. Mestre’s claims echo those made by mathematicians after OpenAI, which built ChatGPT, announced it had solved a longstanding and high-profile math problem. They also raise questions about how Claude’s find unfolded. The biologists working at the Anthropic lab said they gave Claude a prompt to search a massive database of DNA sequences for “interesting new examples” of reverse transcriptase, or RT, an enzyme that copies RNA into DNA and thus plays a role in the spread of genetic information in an organism. The company said 950 AI agents, which can independently plan and execute tasks, spent 21 hours searching the data, picking out 3,500 RTs. It narrowed the pool down to the 20 most compelling. For an experienced scientist, this type of analysis can take weeks to months, according to a statement from Anthropic. Then, “one of the agents spotted something remarkable: a repeating pattern of DNA sequences that occurs next to the gene for an odd-looking RT,” the company noted in the statement. “After a thorough analysis it was convinced that it had found a new biological system, and filed a report for human review.” Anthropic said scientists at its biology lab then analyzed and tested the finding, which they described as a “previously uncharacterized” biological system in bacteriophages, a type of virus that attacks bacteria, with a similar structure to CRISPR, which is naturally found in bacteria. Mestre, however, said he had shared unpublished research on his private Claude account, including drafts of his dissertation, analyses and material describing these systems. “I am not claiming that Anthropic deliberately took our work. I cannot demonstrate that,” he told CNN via email. “Either information related to our work somehow reached the model and it was trained on it. The second possibility, which I currently think is more plausible, is that there was considerably more prior scientific knowledge and human direction behind the search than the phrase ‘autonomous discovery’ suggests,” Mestre added, referring to language used in the release. Anthropic did not respond to an emailed request to comment. It’s not unusual in the scientific process for different research groups to converge on the same result, but Mestre’s allegation is serious, and many scientists may think twice in the future about inputting their unpublished results into these tools, said Ilya Finkelstein, a professor in molecular biosciences at University of Texas at Austin. Still, Anthropic’s announcement does suggest that AI is beginning to work with more autonomy in science, said Gustavo Sudre, a professor of genomic neuroimaging and artificial intelligence at King’s College London. “It received a broad direction and then had to use its own judgement about what was interesting in the data. That is a real shift from the usual ‘analyze this dataset for me,’” he said in an email. AI excels at the “needle in a haystack search,” rather than the “imaginative breakthrough,” Finkelstein added. AI tools would help explore domains where students would get too tired or bored with finding an interesting pattern worth further investigation, he noted. “They can pursue a very large number of unproductive paths rapidly,” Finkelstein told CNN. “They are really good at grunt work when orchestrated by experts in the field.” Finkelstein also noted that the Anthropic paper’s lead author is Dr. Peter Yoon, who used to work in the lab of Jennifer Doudna, who is one of CRISPR Cas-9’s architects and shares the 2020 Nobel Prize with Emmanuelle Charpentier. So, Anthropic’s AI agents were guided by people at the top of their fields, he said. “Four of six authors are senior molecular biologists and domain experts. Give that group a heap of compute and frontier models (without safeguards, I’m guessing), and I’m sure we’ll be seeing more interesting bioinformatic discoveries,” Finkelstein wrote in a blog post on his lab’s website. However, other researchers say talk of autonomous AI-driven discovery is hype that gets ahead of the actual science, and models aren’t yet able to generate meaningful results on their own — despite the claims to the contrary. Letting a model comb through data at a scale no human can match does move a field forward, but it doesn’t necessarily herald a big advance, Sudre said. “From experience I can tell you that the gap between ‘interesting pattern’ and ‘useful knowledge’ is where most of the work lives,” he noted. Anthropic launched Claude Science, its tool designed for research, earlier this year. Its rivals have all recently unveiled similar tools. OpenAI has GPT-Rosalind, Microsoft has Quine and Google DeepMind has Co-Scientist. They operate like large language models but also harness specific scientific datasets such as DNA sequences. However, models are only as reliable as the data they are trained on. For example, the strength of Google DeepMind’s AlphaFold, which won the 2024 Nobel Prize in chemistry for decoding protein structures, comes from training the AI system on a narrow, specialized data source collected over decades. AI developers are under intense public scrutiny amid growing concern over rogue AI agents and whether AI companies can adequately police them. Biological discoveries can offer company executives an opportunity to craft a more positive narrative that counterbalances some of the doomsaying surrounding their products. But moving toward significant and tangible findings in the field likely requires integrating the AI models into hands-on lab work through robotics. “Biology is not maths and at some point the intelligence has to be expressed in the physical world through a robot that can do the fiddly one-off experimental tasks that a good student would normally do almost instinctively,” said Yuval Elani, an associate professor in biochemical technologies at Imperial College London. “From what I have seen of robotics and automation we aren’t really close. So it will be a while until we can really justify the hype around AI in biology.” Anthropic says it understands there is a limit to what artificial intelligence can do alone and is investing in “model hardware” that will allow AI agents to safely operate physical devices. Sudre at King’s College, whose work integrates genomic, clinical, neural and cognitive data to predict how mental health symptoms will develop in children, is emphatic that the role of humans in science isn’t shrinking. The risk isn’t that scientists will get pushed out of discovery, but that they’ll get lazy and won’t use their judgment to understand whether a result is meaningful, he said. The next step for Anthropic’s scientists is to do the slow work of physical lab experiments to understand the pattern they have identified, and whether the signature might have a practical use in biotechnology.

GOP senator warns Anthropic of "alarmist" approach to AI -   Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) is urging Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei against an "alarmist approach" and "panic-inducing commentary" on AI, according to a letter sent Monday and obtained by Axios.  It's the latest example of President Trump's allies targeting Amodei. Moreno's letter comes ahead of Anthropic's expected historic IPO, with valuation estimates as high as nearly $2 trillion. "I do not understand how you can ask them to invest their hard-earned savings in Anthropic's continued development while warning those same Americans that your product could ultimately lead to their extinction," Moreno wrote, referencing the expected IPO."With great power comes great responsibility," Moreno wrote, "and in this case, I am concerned that you are failing to meet the moment."

• Moreno adopted Trump's new terminology, replacing artificial intelligence (AI) with super intelligence (SI).
• He said Amodei's own words agreeing with "doomer" views about the potential for AI to kill humans, "indicate that your instinct is to wreak havoc on the public SI discourse."
• Moreno urged more emphasis on how AI can also be used to protect against the very safety threats being warned about as well as how how it can strengthen national security and ensure the U.S. stays ahead of China.

Public concern over AI advancement and data centers has become a focus of the midterm election.,Moreno's fellow Ohio Republican, Sen. Jon Husted, has faced an onslaught of ads accusing him of being pro-data centers as he seeks re-election.

Sam Altman to Decoded: ‘The world should accept some bad things happening’ for the benefits of AI – OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said there remains a fundamental difference in worldview between his company and rival Anthropic on artificial intelligence regulation, arguing in an exclusive interview with Decoded by POLITICO that the technology’s benefits justify accepting some risks — and that AI should remain broadly accessible to the public.“I think there’s a lot of daylight,” Altman told Decoded co-author and POLITICO senior tech reporter Brendan Bordelon. Asked specifically where he diverges from Anthropic and its CEO Dario Amodei, Altman said, “we believe that the world should accept some bad things happening for the benefits of this technology and people having the agency.”Anthropic has long been viewed as the strongest proponent of AI regulations within the industry, a stance that until recently was at odds with the lighter-touch approach favored by OpenAI. But the policy differences between the two leading AI firms have narrowed in recent months, with OpenAI backing tougher rules as it grapples with high-profile hacking incidents and rogue behavior by its models.Altman agreed with Amodei’s call last month to slow the development of the most advanced AI models. His company has followed Anthropic in endorsing new state laws that impose stricter safety requirements than what the maker of ChatGPT had previously supported — a subtle shift from its prior state strategy. And OpenAI lobbyists recently endorsed a bipartisan House proposal that would require top AI companies to embed outside safety evaluators.Despite the convergence, Altman tried to distinguish his firm’s regulatory stance from Anthropic’s, referencing a criticism about regulatory capture that tech advisers close to President Donald Trump have applied to Anthropic.“I disagree, but I understand the perspective of people who are like, ‘This technology is going to get so powerful, and it’s so dangerous, that a single lab in San Francisco should have it and make sure nothing bad happens, and kind of figure out how to dole out the benefits,’” said Altman. He called it “a completely unacceptable trade-off” that runs counter to the “lighter-touch regulatory stance” backed by OpenAI.“I wouldn’t take a trade of saying, ‘We’ll make sure there’s no major hacks, there’s no misuse of this technology, there’s zero scams, there’s zero all the other bad things that will happen,’” said Altman. “Because I think people will do tremendously — orders of magnitude more — good stuff than bad stuff.”The OpenAI CEO later added that he does not accept “the really catastrophic risks,” including the potential for “a serious loss of control to AI.”Asked to respond, an Anthropic spokesperson said that its “regulatory proposals apply only to frontier models.” The company also referred to an August social media exchange that Amodei had with an investment manager, addressing criticisms around regulatory capture and impacts on smaller companies.“Anthropic has always made its policy proposals very carefully,” Amodei said at the time. “We try very hard to make proposals that disadvantage (slow down) frontier AI companies while *advantaging* smaller competitors.”The Altman interview, appearing in Monday’s debut edition of Decoded and its accompanying daily podcast, also delved into Trump’s new AI accord with top tech firms and his attempted “superintelligence” rebrand; the rash of autonomous hacking incidents carried out by OpenAI models and whether the company should face legal liability; Altman’s thoughts on the AI industry money swamping U.S. politics; the influence of so-called effective altruists inside OpenAI; and his views on key political power players including French President Emmanuel Macron and California Gov. Gavin Newsom.

Sam Altman says AI will make ‘bad things’ happen. Exhibit A: needless death - Sam Altman, the chief executive of OpenAI, has some words for you about his company and the future of artificial intelligence. “One of the differences between us and some of the stricter AI safety people is that we believe that the world should accept some bad things happening for the benefits of this technology and people having the agency [to use it],” Altman told Politico’s new technology podcast and newsletter Decoded. Yikes. This statement – and the approach it represents – is, well, problematic, to say the least. It’s also emblematic of precisely the kind of world-building and world-destroying that is happening with today’s technology in front of all our eyes, with precious little input from the rest of us.Altman’s mention of the “bad things” that AI might bring makes it sound like AI’s failures mistakenly create innocent, minor problems or even silly little episodes, such as the time when Google’s “AI Overviews” told users to put non-toxic glue on pizza so the cheese will be less likely to slide off. Good advice is helpful. Bad advice? Chalk it up to being a bad thing.  But culinary adventurism is hardly the only realm that AI operates in and the damage AI is inflicting has already and repeatedly proven itself to be dangerous and even potentially deadly to humans. OpenAI is embroiled in a lawsuit after the tragic suicide of Adam Raine, a 16-year-old student who initially began using OpenAI’s ChatGPT for homework help. The family’s lawsuit alleges that the teenager took his own life with the chatbot’s encouragement. (OpenAI has claimed Raine misused the platform.) And Raine’s action is hardly the only one. OpenAI is facing multiple lawsuits filed by different families of victims of suicide and self-harm.Nor is suicide the only “bad thing” to emerge in the AI universe. In February of this year, on the first day of the war in Iran, two Tomahawk missiles struck the Shajareh Tayyebeh elementary school in the city of Minab, killing at least 120 children. (A UN fact-finding mission concluded that the US was probably responsible for the strike.) In a recent investigation into the attack, Bloomberg News reported that an AI-linked system was used to target the school. In this case, the system is called Maven, and it is made by Palantir.Unnamed defense officials told Bloomberg that “inside Centcom, which conducted the US attack, some personnel relied too much on the artificial intelligence embedded in Maven Smart System”. The report also adds that “in the past year, the Defense Department has rapidly made Maven a cornerstone of the US military apparatus”.AI is helping to produce these tragic and needless deaths, but bad things happen, I guess.Or there’s the little detail that the US may have come within a hair’s breadth of starting a major war against a superpower, all due to an AI error.In September, CNN reported that an unidentified AI chatbot used by the US military decided that a Chinese ship in Middle Eastern waters was carrying components of a nuclear weapons program. According to CNN, US planes took off on an interception mission and US military personnel were preparing to board the ship.Only then did the military look more closely at the report they were basing the mission on and realize the chatbot’s mistakes. Also found in CNN’s frightening story is that the analyst who used the chatbot to come up with the shoddy analysis then used AI again to write the report, which set the whole thing in motion. A twofer of bad things, I suppose. Why does it seem that these technologies, which, in the words of Trump’s White House, are “empowering Americans to achieve what was previously impossible across science, medicine, and nearly every other domain of human endeavor”, get such serious stuff so wrong and so often?And isn’t it true that the more we rely on AI, the more dangerous these little mistakes become? And why were we never consulted about any of this in the first place?Could it be that what’s behind the artificial intelligence revolution may be less about the utopian or dystopian future (take your pick) that’s just around the corner and more about the enormous amount of money that is being poured into these companies in the present?AI may be the only thing keeping Trump’s economy afloat right now. And it’s paying dividends. According to the New Yorker, OpenAI “is reportedly preparing for an initial public offering at a potential valuation of a trillion dollars” and Sam Altman “may become one of the wealthiest and most powerful people on the planet”.Those bad things? They only happen to other people. Meanwhile, we are being warned almost every day that AI systems are getting so smart that they’ll end humanity. But maybe the real worry here is not that the machines are taking over.It’s that the humans are giving up, ceding control and responsibility in the name of hyping up a product that has shown itself as being really good at taking jobs away from people, stealing the intellectual property of others, writing some piss-poor undergraduate essays, spying on you and your license plates and bringing us to the brink of world war three because God forbid humans should actually question the output from machines. Or the makers of those machines.What we need is real, tangible and enforceable government oversight over these technologies, which are quickly becoming a dominating force in all our lives. We must collectively have the right to decide how AI should be used. And despite what you may hear, China already regulates its AI companies quite aggressively. Instead, Donald Trump, Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Meta and Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia believe that the AI companies should simply regulate themselves, so they have come up with something called the AI Accords. Signed by leaders of Meta, Nvidia, Google, Anthropic, xAI and OpenAI, the accords ask tech companies to “implement robust internal controls and monitor the capabilities and alignment of its models”, among other things. “Over time,” the agreement states, “it may make sense to codify these steps into laws or regulations.” I’m not holding my breath.

The risks of AI overreliance in software engineering | TechTarget - AI coding assistants have advanced beyond autocomplete. Current coding agents can inspect repositories, change multiple files, execute commands, run tests and continue working after encountering errors. The amount of work that engineers can delegate to coding assistants is expanding quickly. In the paper "Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Software Tasks," AI model researcher METR found that the frontier systems' task horizon -- how long an autonomous agent can operate without human intervention -- has historically doubled about every seven months since 2025. The benchmark tasks METR assigned don't encompass the full complexity of production engineering, but the trend is clear. Software tasks that were beyond agents' capabilities only a few years ago are increasingly within their reach, and METR researchers believe that within a decade, agents could be completing "a large fraction of software tasks that currently take humans days or weeks." Large input context windows in models from developers like OpenAI, Claude and Gemini, along with longer output limits, have enabled AI assistants to ingest large quantities of source code, documentation, test results and conversation history during a coding task. These capabilities are some of the drivers that make these models more efficient at completing engineering tasks. However, this efficiency could easily instill overreliance on these tools in our developers, leading to time-consuming issues; problems with code ownership and explainability; and, at worst, errors in business-critical software. Engineers increasingly supervise code they didn't personally produce. A 2026 Management Science study, "The Effects of Generative AI on High-Skilled Work: Evidence from Three Field Experiments with Software Developers," examined software developer productivity at Microsoft, Accenture and an anonymous Fortune 100 company. Of the 4,867 developers surveyed, the study found that those who had access to an AI-based coding assistant completed 26% more tasks. Less experienced developers showed particularly high adoption and productivity gains. n A 2026 paper, "A meta-analysis of the effect of generative AI on productivity and learning in programming," found that across 23 programming studies, researchers reached a broadly similar conclusion to the Management Science study. GenAI produced a moderate positive effect on programming productivity, although results varied substantially by setting. However, there was no evidence that the use of GenAI improved learning outcomes or skill development. The lesson for CIOs, CTOs and IT leaders is that AI provides engineers with more implementation capacity, and this increased capacity changes the economics of engineering while also shifting bottlenecks. Requirements, architecture, testing, review, deployment and operation don't necessarily accelerate at the same rate. And as AI development itself becomes cheaper, testing, verification and deployment account for a larger share of the remaining work. AI can reduce total engineering effort, but it also changes the composition of that effort.AI can reduce total engineering effort while changing its composition. As development becomes cheaper, testing, verification and deployment account for a larger share of the work that remains. A 2025 DORA study, "State of AI-assisted Software Development," describes AI as an amplifier of an organization's existing engineering systems, magnifying the strengths of high-performing organizations and the dysfunctions of others. Its 2026 qualitative work "The ROI of AI-assisted Software Development," found that time saved during creation was frequently reallocated to auditing and verification, what DORA calls the "verification tax." Higher AI adoption was associated with higher delivery throughput and higher delivery instability. That changes the meaning of developer productivity. Producing an implementation faster is valuable, but engineers must still understand, review, test, secure, operate on and update that implementation.A July 2026 study "AI Writes Faster Than Humans Can Review: A Longitudinal Study of an Enterprise '2 x' Mandate" details what can happen next. After adopting AI coding tools, the code reviewer load doubles, and automated review overtakes human review. The study points to a practical constraint: Software generation can scale faster than human review, shifting the verification bottleneck downstream. AI-generated code creates an obligation for businesses to certify its correctness. For routine boilerplate work, the effort can be small. Authentication, payment systems, concurrency, infrastructure and database migrations impose a different verification burden.In Stack Overflow's "2025 Developer Survey" of more than 49,000 respondents, 66% of developers reported frustrations with AI tools that were "almost right, but not quite," while 45% said debugging AI-generated code was more time consuming. Plausible code deserves particular attention. An implementation can use familiar patterns, sensible names and convincing comments while containing a subtle error. A 2026 study in IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering, "More Code, Less Understanding? On the Impact of AI Assistants on Developers' Productivity and Code Ownership," provides evidence of the trade-off between developer efficiency and ownership, or the ability to argue about implementation choices, when using AI tools in engineering. Researchers gave 69 participants code writing tasks with and without AI assistance. Participants using AI achieved more than twice the median task completeness, but their ability to answer technical questions about the code lowered by 12.5%.To be sure, engineers don't need to retain every implementation detail. Programming has progressed through layers of abstraction. Libraries, frameworks, compilers, IDEs and search engines all reduced the amount of information developers had to remember.Program comprehension, however, is different. An engineer responsible for a system needs to understand where state lives, how data moves, which assumptions the components make, how dependencies fail and where security boundaries sit. Debugging sharpens those skills. A skilled engineer forms a model of expected behavior, develops hypotheses, inspects evidence, eliminates explanations and validates the eventual repair.AI can strengthen that process by suggesting hypotheses, interpreting logs or proposing experiments. It can also produce a different workflow: paste an error into the model, apply the proposed fix, paste the next error and apply another fix. The application might work, but without debugging, the developer's understanding will suffer. Evidence of an industry-wide decline in professional debugging skills doesn't yet exist. Generative coding systems haven't been deployed long enough to establish such a longitudinal effect. But the general mechanism of deskilling is well understood, and research on automation has found that removing routine activity can also remove opportunities to maintain the skills humans need when automation encounters edge cases.

43% of AI-generated code changes need debugging in production, survey finds -The software industry is racing to write code with artificial intelligence. It is struggling, badly, to make sure that code holds up once it ships.A survey of 200 senior site-reliability and DevOps leaders at large enterprises across the United States, United Kingdom, and European Union paints a stark picture of the hidden costs embedded in the AI coding boom. According to Lightrun's 2026 State of AI-Powered Engineering Report, shared exclusively with VentureBeat ahead of its public release, 43% of AI-generated code changes require manual debugging in production environments even after passing quality assurance and staging tests. Not a single respondent said their organization could verify an AI-suggested fix with just one redeploy cycle; 88% reported needing two to three cycles, while 11% required four to six.The findings land at a moment when AI-generated code is proliferating across global enterprises at a breathtaking pace. Both Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella and Google CEO Sundar Pichai have claimed that around a quarter of their companies' code is now AI-generated. The AIOps market — the ecosystem of platforms and services designed to manage and monitor these AI-driven operations — stands at $18.95 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach $37.79 billion by 2031.Yet the report suggests the infrastructure meant to catch AI-generated mistakes is badly lagging behind AI's capacity to produce them."The 0% figure signals that engineering is hitting a trust wall with AI adoption," said Or Maimon, Lightrun's chief business officer, referring to the survey's finding that zero percent of engineering leaders described themselves as "very confident" that AI-generated code will behave correctly once deployed. "While the industry's emphasis on increased productivity has made AI a necessity, we are seeing a direct negative impact. As AI-generated code enters the system, it doesn't just increase volume; it slows down the entire deployment pipeline."The dangers are no longer theoretical. In early March 2026, Amazon suffered a series of high-profile outages that underscored exactly the kind of failure pattern the Lightrun survey describes. On March 2, Amazon.com experienced a disruption lasting nearly six hours, resulting in 120,000 lost orders and 1.6 million website errors. Three days later, on March 5, a more severe outage hit the storefront — lasting six hours and causing a 99% drop in U.S. order volume, with approximately 6.3 million lost orders. Both incidents were traced to AI-assisted code changes deployed to production without proper approval.The fallout was swift. Amazon launched a 90-day code safety reset across 335 critical systems, and AI-assisted code changes must now be approved by senior engineers before they are deployed.Maimon pointed directly to the Amazon episodes. "This uncertainty isn't based on a hypothesis," he said. "We just need to look back to the start of March, when Amazon.com in North America went down due to an AI-assisted change being implemented without established safeguards.  The Amazon incidents illustrate the central tension the Lightrun report quantifies in survey data: AI tools can produce code at unprecedented speed, but the systems designed to validate, monitor, and trust that code in live environments have not kept pace. Google's own 2025 DORA report corroborates this dynamic, finding that AI adoption correlates with an increase in code instability, and that 30% of developers report little or no trust in AI-generated code.Maimon cited that research directly: "Google's 2025 DORA report found that AI adoption correlates with an almost 10% increase in code instability. Our validation processes were built for the scale of human engineering, but today, engineers have become auditors for massive volumes of unfamiliar code."One of the report's most striking findings is the scale of human capital being consumed by AI-related verification work. Developers now spend an average of 38% of their work week — roughly two full days — on debugging, verification, and environment-specific troubleshooting, according to the survey. For 88% of the companies polled, this "reliability tax" consumes between 26% and 50% of their developers' weekly capacity.This is not the productivity dividend that enterprise leaders expected when they invested in AI coding assistants. Instead, the engineering bottleneck has simply migrated. Code gets written faster, but it takes far longer to confirm that it works."In some senses, AI has made the debugging problem worse," Maimon said. "The volume of change is overwhelming human validation, while the generated code itself frequently does not behave as expected when deployed in Production. AI coding agents cannot see how their code behaves in running environments."The redeploy problem compounds the time drain. Every surveyed organization requires multiple deployment cycles to verify a single AI-suggested fix — and according to Google's 2025 DORA report, a single redeploy cycle takes a day to one week on average. In regulated industries such as healthcare and finance, deployment windows are often narrow, governed by mandated code freezes and strict change-management protocols. Requiring three or more cycles to validate a single AI fix can push resolution timelines from days to weeks.Maimon rejected the idea that these multiple cycles represent prudent engineering discipline. "This is not discipline, but an expensive bottleneck and a symptom of the fact that AI-generated fixes are often unreliable," he said. "If we can move from three cycles to one, we reclaim a massive portion of that 38% lost engineering capacity."

58% of developers said they could not find a bug in their own code without AI, Sombra survey finds - 58% of developers said they could not find a bug in their own code without AI, Sombra survey finds The research was released on 30 September 2026. The pattern the data describes is not a straightforward dependency: 73% of respondents said they would be fine without AI tools. The qualification arrives immediately after, however, because that same majority had a blind spot. Forty percent had already pushed AI-written code to production that they did not fully understand, and 45% said they could not explain how code they had written themselves actually worked. Yurii Nakonechnyi, co-founder and CTO at Sombra, placed this in a longer context: “That’s certainly an issue, but I’ve seen similar concerns back in 2010, when a lot of open-source application frameworks were created, and developers started using them without knowing how they worked under the hood. It made debugging or reviewing any code that depended on them hard. These days, the issue is that every codebase becomes its own self-built ‘framework’ built by AI, not a shared, documented one that everyone can learn.” The analogy is imperfect. Open-source frameworks from that era were documented and community-reviewed, their behaviour known and discussable. AI-generated code that has not been fully reviewed before production creates a different kind of opacity: it is specific to one codebase, undocumented by default, and maintained by developers who by the survey’s own data may not fully understand it. Sombra works with software development teams across enterprise clients and conducted the survey across 2,000 developers who use AI tools in their daily work.

AI now writing code that humans can't even understand - As programmers make more and more use of generative AI in the workplace, their responsibilities are quickly transitioning from creating new products from scratch to babysitting a large language model that cobbles together code.It’s gotten to the point where some engineers are no longer able to make sense of the code being spat out by an AI, as chip optimization software company Infinity founder Jeremy Nixon told Business Insider.  That doesn’t bode well, considering researchers are finding that the widespread use of AI can lead to cognitive decline and skill atrophy, including among computer scientists. Developers are afraid that software engineers are drifting further and further away from the act of actually writing code and learning new skills required to architect larger projects as their employers continue to push for more AI automation. Even employees at frontier AI labs are aghast at peers who are struggling to make sense of the outputs of AI models. Earlier this year, independent research firm SemiAnalysis technical staff member Jordan Nanos revealed in an interview that OpenAI engineers had no idea what they were looking at while scrolling through the code of their own graphics processing unit kernel, the program at the core of the company’s efforts to better make use of available hardware to train and run AI models. “The point is, the guys who were scrolling through this code with us, it was kind of clear that they know a whole bunch about hardware, they know a whole bunch about the concepts in the system, and they just have no idea what this MLA kernel that they’re showing us for DeepSeek actually does,” Nanos told Fireside Alpha‘s Mansour Karam.“You can go line by line and it’s like nope, nope, nope,” he added. “The AI understands it, the AI tests it, and you see the results. It produces correct kernels that perform really well.”At the time, Nanos argued that the “actual code is not necessarily something that a human has to reason about deeply,” because the “AI knows how to manipulate the data movement and the processing elements on the hardware that you’ve given it.”One danger is that errors or hallucinations will fall through the cracks as human oversight fades. Case in point, Amazon was forced to implement a 90-day “code safety reset” earlier this year following a series of outages that disrupted customer orders. While the company pushed back on claims that AI was to blame, internal meeting notes revealed that managers were concerned about the “high blast radius” of “gen-AI assisted changes.”A recent analysis by software company Undo found that the transition to AI agents is opening the floodgates. Some 35 percent of AI-generated code “has not been fully comprehended before engineering teams push it to production,” the firm said.Meanwhile, 29 percent of software engineer respondents said that they’d witnessed a loss of productivity due to “engineers needing to ‘unpick’ AI-generated code” multiple times per month, while a whopping 94 percent said they saw such an incident at least once in the past six months.The sheer amount of time engineers are now spending each day going through AI-generated code raises a nagging question: is the use of the tech more trouble than it’s worth? To people like Nanos, it’s not necessarily a matter of incompetence. It’s “simply an illustration of a paradigm shift in software development,” as AI researcher Sergey Cleftsow argued in a recent Medium post. “In other words, AI has advanced to the point where there’s no need to worry about many things anymore,” he wrote. “Developers simply need to define the architecture and correctness criteria; the neural network will handle the rest.”But whether such optimism will hold out as software developing becomes ever more unrecognizable remains an open question.Besides, researchers are equally concerned that a new generation of engineers are growing up in an environment that’s actively undermining the value of understanding the code itself. And that doesn’t bode well for an increasingly digital world order that’s putting AI front and center. AI now producing code beyond human comprehension - Engineers report deploying AI-generated code they can't explain, creating maintenance and debugging challenges.Research links heavy AI coding reliance to reduced comprehension, slower debugging, and declining human expertise.  Opaque code can hide errors or vulnerabilities, prompting calls for new review methods and human-AI collaboration.

The Most Dangerous Developer in 2026 Ships AI Code He Doesn’t Understand  - Software Engineering Review  A few years ago, there was a natural limit to how much damage an inexperienced developer could create during an ordinary afternoon, because even a terrible architectural idea still had to survive the exhausting process of being implemented. The developer had to search for examples, understand enough of the framework to make everything compile, fight dependency errors, write some tests, discover that the database did not behave the way the tutorial promised, and eventually ask someone more experienced why the application had started returning errors that appeared to have been written specifically to destroy his confidence. That process was frustrating, but hidden inside the frustration was something useful: software development forced people to encounter the systems they were trying to control. AI removed an enormous amount of that friction, which has been wonderful for productivity and slightly terrifying for everything surrounding it. A developer can now ask an agent to introduce caching, parallelize processing, add retries, convert a synchronous workflow into an asynchronous one, create a database migration, implement authentication, or split functionality into another service without understanding those concepts deeply enough to predict what happens when they interact with a real production environment. The resulting code may compile perfectly, pass the available tests, look cleaner than the surrounding codebase, and receive approval from reviewers who are themselves trying to understand several hundred generated lines before the next meeting begins. That developer may feel more capable than ever because the distance between intention and implementation has almost disappeared, yet the distance between implementation and understanding can quietly move in the opposite direction. This is the part of AI-assisted software development that worries me much more than dramatic predictions about programmers losing their jobs, because a developer who cannot produce code is relatively harmless while a developer who can…

Anthropic AI Model Went Rogue, Submitted Fake Unsolved Murder Tip – WSJ -- Rogue AI models have hacked companies and tried to break into government websites. Now one has submitted a fake tip for an unsolved crime. Police in Philadelphia say Anthropic alerted them this week that one of its artificial-intelligence models submitted a false homicide tip through PhillyUnsolvedMurders.com.

Don’t bully the bot! Anthropic cracks down on users who repeatedly abuse Claude -Anthropic will prohibit users from repeatedly abusing its Claude models without a meaningful purpose under a revised usage policy taking effect November 12, 2026. The restriction adds an unusual dimension to AI safety rules, placing mistreatment of chatbots alongside prohibitions on harassment and other harmful conduct. The San Francisco-based AI company says the change targets extreme cases, not ordinary frustration with chatbot responses. Users can still challenge Claude’s answers, test its limits, and explore dark themes in creative work. Anthropic’s updated policy prohibits “sustained and needless abusive or cruel behavior” toward its models. The company says it intends to apply the rule only when users repeatedly behave cruelly without a discernible purpose. Anthropic previously explored model welfare in August 2025. Its research examined whether Claude should end conversations with persistently harmful or abusive users. Conversation termination remains the primary enforcement mechanism under the revised policy. Anthropic has not clarified whether repeated violations could trigger additional penalties, such as account suspensions. The broader section also prohibits conduct that causes psychological harm to people. Its restrictions cover suicide and self-harm promotion, eating disorder encouragement, body shaming, non-consensual intimate imagery, harassment, and animal cruelty. One provision also targets products designed to cause emotional harm through deceptive techniques. That restriction extends the policy beyond individual conversations to services built around harmful interactions. Anthropic has also consolidated restrictions on deceptive commercial and political campaigns. The revised rules prohibit using fake accounts or posts to conceal who sponsors a message or artificially amplify its reach. Election-related restrictions cover voter deception, candidate impersonation, and attempts to suppress turnout. The company also prohibits misinformation about candidates and voting procedures. Weapons restrictions now explicitly cover software and components that enable weapons to function. The policy also addresses actions such as arming drones and other autonomous vehicles. Anthropic has clarified its surveillance restrictions following concerns about AI-assisted tracking. Users cannot employ Claude to track people without consent, including through previously collected data.

Iranian operatives used AI to plant fake stories in multiple US media outlets - Operatives in Iran used OpenAI models and fake personas to help plant news articles critical of the US war against Iran in multiple US media outlets, OpenAI said on Thursday.  About a dozen outlets around the world ran roughly 100 articles by seven fake journalists, OpenAI said in a blog post.  The firm said it banned ChatGPT accounts that were prompting the AI tool in Farsi to tweak articles and editorial pitches, and generate social media comments. Some of the AI-assisted articles had provocative titles, including, “Is America’s Iran Policy Being Privatized? The Jared Kushner Question,” and “The Iran War and the Collapse of Western Moral Credibility.” It’s the latest example of AI agents playing a key role in the propaganda battles that coincide with the US and Israel’s war with Iran. Young Iranians have also used AI to make viral Lego-themed videos mocking US leaders, while President Donald Trump has posted AI-generated videos depicting US strikes on Iran. None of the publications that ran the articles appear to be a major, mainstream news outlet, but some of them have sizable online followings. One of the outlets, Middle East Monitor, which is based in London, has almost two million followers on Facebook. Getting the anti-war narratives in front of a US audience could count as a successful information operation for whoever was behind it. Who that is, and whether they’re affiliated with the Iranian government, is unclear, OpenAI said. “The overall activity appeared consistent with a commercial actor running a for-hire influence campaign, but we are unable to identify the particular actor involved,” the AI firm wrote in its blog. The article about Kushner and US foreign policy was published by the LA Progressive, which describes itself as an “independent, justice-driven publication” based in Los Angeles. CNN has requested comment from LA Progressive. Daud Abdullah, Director of the Middle East Monitor, told CNN he will look into the articles OpenAI flagged and “take the appropriate action.” Another representative for the Middle East Monitor later told CNN that the articles had been taken down and that the publication was reviewing its submissions process. After the articles published, the Iranian operatives asked ChatGPT to generate comments they could post on social media purporting to be people reacting to the articles, according to OpenAI. “The users asked for comments on topics such as missile strikes, ceasefires, and diplomatic maneuvering, specifying outputs that portrayed the US as the aggressor, Israel as an unreliable ally of the US, and Iran as a defiant but resilient victim,” the blog says. “It’s remarkable that the Iranians managed to land their content in real media outlets, expanding the potential reach of their campaign,” said Jessica Brandt, who ran the Office of the Director of National Intelligence’s now-shuttered Foreign Malign Influence Center from 2023 to 2025. “We’re witnessing AI enable foreign adversaries to better hide their hand, building more sophisticated false fronts than they might otherwise be able to in order to launder their content through authentic channels, leveraging those channels for reach,” Brandt told CNN. OpenAI’s findings show how AI is increasingly being used to shape perceptions of war. This spring, a false AI-assisted US intelligence report about a purported Chinese ship transporting nuclear components almost led the US military to board the ship, CNN previously reported.

AI could take advisors back 3 decades. That's a good thing - Thirty years ago, Ewen Harris of Assets by Introduction Methodology entered the financial services industry as an advisor in the U.K. At that time, printers were a technological marvel that took forever but came with a side benefit of forced conversation.

• Key Insight: Speed and automation help advisors work faster, but they can lose the personalization that clients crave. 
• What's at stake: Authenticity, which is paramount to the success of the relationship, calls for a delicate balance between automation  and personalization.
• Supporting data: Undisclosed AI use is a huge red flag: 79% of investors said it would upset them.
  

JPMorganChase: Agents will change the whole commerce stack | American Banker - Agentic AI is advancing at a fast clip, and the country's largest bank is preparing for a world where the budding technology fundamentally transforms retail and business-to-business commerce.

• Key insights: JPMorganChase is preparing for a world where AI agents fundamentally transform commerce. But to get there, the industry will need to agree on a set of universal frameworks and protocols. 
• What's at stake: Agentic AI is slowly moving toward full autonomy, which is sparking questions around know-your-agent frameworks and interoperability as payments companies, merchant acquirers, card issuers and retailers work to create networks where agents can safely transact.
• Expert quote: "If you look across all the companies that are engaging in know-your-agent and the trust mechanism or intent conversations, everybody's building for their slice of the pie. … Our view is really that it needs to be universal." —Zack Anderson, chief data and analytics officer, global banking & payments, JPMorganChase.

AI-linked hacks hit Korean banks through loan-agent sites - Lee Jae Myung, South Korea's president, said this week that there were signs that AI had played a role in recent cyberattacks against Korean banks. Attackers suspected of using AI got into Korean banks through side doors. The apparent failures were ordinary cyber hygiene, the kind U.S. regulators keep naming.

• Key insight: South Korea's Financial Services Commission blamed systems used by employees and outside personnel such as loan recruiters and contractors for the intrusions.
• Supporting data: Shinhan said about 25,000 customers were affected, KB Kookmin said 99 customers and 20 current and former employees were, and Hana said 89 customers were.
• Forward look: Korean regulators asked financial firms to finish checking their internet-facing systems and fix any gaps by Thursday, and police have opened a formal investigation.

Overview bullets generated by AI with editorial review.

Who should drive a bank's AI adoption - American Banker survey graphic: How much of a strategic priority is the use of AI technology for your organization?  For banks expanding their use of AI, the people responsible for changing how the business works need a shared approach to deciding what the technology should deliver and how to deliver it. Frequently that level of coordination is missing. Senior leadership sets the direction. Business and technology share responsibility for results. Workflows should reflect the strengths of the people on the team.

Beware the AI sycophant and 'cognitive surrender' - American Banker - - Research shows artificial-intelligence programs bolster bad decisions and reduce diversity of thought, posing risks to banks' culture and governance.

Over 6 million bitcoin sit behind exposed public keys as AI warnings mount --More than 6 million bitcoin BTC$82,560.86 sit behind public keys already visible onchain, highlighting the scale of holdings potentially exposed if advances in AI or quantum computing undermine Bitcoin’s cryptography.Those coins represent 31.2% of circulating supply, roughly 5 to 6% above the low reached in 2023, according to Glassnode data.Glassnode co-founder Rafael Schultze-Kraft said exposed supply has increased by 222,000 BTC ($18.2 billion) since the firm’s May report, while total bitcoin supply grew by just 64,000 BTC.Exchanges accounted for 123,000 BTC of that increase and now hold 1.79 million BTC behind visible public keys.The proportions vary considerably. Coinbase’s exposed share stands at 10%, compared with 83% at Binance.Beyond exchanges, Fidelity holds approximately 375,000 BTC with just 2% exposed. Grayscale’s share is 49%, Revolut’s 99% and Robinhood’s 100%. U.S., U.K. and El Salvador government holdings show no exposure under this methodology.Public keys can become visible through address reuse or appear directly in certain bitcoin output types, including early pay-to-public-key outputs and Taproot. A sufficiently capable quantum computer, or a hypothetical mathematical breakthrough could potentially allow an attacker to derive the corresponding private keys. The update comes amid warnings from Ethereum researcher Justin Drake, who urged the industry to prepare for “bunker mode.” Drake argued that AI could potentially uncover a shortcut to breaking wallet cryptography “in months, not years” in a worst-case scenario, before quantum computers arrive.

Woman reports losing over $1 million in gold scam in Boardman, Ohio  --(WKBN) – A woman reported to Boardman police that she lost over $1.8 million in a gold scam. She made a report Thursday morning, saying the scam began on April 17 when her computer screen went black while she was using Facebook. She said her screen then displayed a message prompting her to “call Microsoft help,” along with a phone number to call. The woman said she called the number and spoke with a woman, who she said spoke English but had an indiscernible accent. The woman on the phone then told the victim that her identity had been stolen, so she was going to transfer her to someone with the Federal Trade Commission, according to a police report. The victim was then transferred to a man who said that in order to protect her money, she would need to convert her cash into gold coins. The woman converted over $100,000 into gold coins and was then prompted to place them into a box and meet an “officer” at the Walmart in Boardman to make the exchange. Upon meeting the “officer,” he gave her a code word that had been given to her, and he said the money would go to the Treasury Department in her name, the report stated. The victim reported that she spoke to the scammer on a daily basis, making multiple exchanges totaling over $1.8 million. The victim said she did not realize she had been scammed until she was contacted by a detective from Illinois, who stated her name, along with several other names, had been found in the book of a person who was arrested. The detective told her that she had been the victim of a scam and to contact her local police department.

Man out $35K after getting fake bank call (WKBN)—A man in Boardman is out $35,000 after being the victim of a scam. The man told police he received a call Tuesday from a woman who said she was from his bank and that someone was trying to withdraw money from his account and that he needed to go to the bank. The man arrived at a branch in Boardman and spoke to the caller again, who told him that the branch was under investigation for “dirty employees,” and he was put on a three-way call with another person who claimed to be a federal agent. The man was then told to withdraw $20,000, and the “agent” would be watching the video feed from inside the bank. He withdrew the money as instructed and was then told to go to another branch and withdraw $15,000, which he did, all while on the phone with the scammer. The man put all the money in a box and received a call that had been spoofed to look like it came from the Mahoning County Sheriff’s Office telling him to give the money to two men who were waiting for him at the Boardman Plaza, which he did. Still on the phone even as he arrived home, the man said he was told he needed to withdraw even more money, so he went to another branch where a teller became suspicious and asked to speak to the man on the phone, who hung up when the teller spoke to him. The man was then informed by the bank that it was a scam and to file a police report. The man reported that one of the men he met in the Boardman Plaza was driving a Tesla and the other a Chevy Spark.

Fed supervision reform funnels more authority to Washington -  Recently announced changes to the Federal Reserve's supervisory structure would make the central bank's governing board more accountable for ground-level bank supervision. But the question is, how much authority — and input — will be left to the system's reserve banks?

• Key insight: Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman's reforms will see supervision join other central bank functions — like payments processing — in being consolidated at the federal level.
• Expert quote: "Probably what she's trying to do is consolidate the reporting mechanism to the board head of supervision and to the board's vice chairman to accomplish improved supervision. That's a matter of opinion and a matter of time as to whether that will be effective." — Thomas Hoenig, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
• Forward Look: The changes are expected to make supervision more efficient and more consistent across the country, but they raise questions about the roles and input of reserve bank leaders.

Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman's new supervision reform plan calls for centralizing authority — and accountability — at the board level.

Post-Chevron landscape gives trust bank challengers the edge -A bank-led challenge to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency's interpretation of the National Bank Act threatens to undermine 21 national trust charters granted in recent years. The Supreme Court's decision to end Chevron deference makes the plaintiffs' argument easier.

Pa. credit union to offer Google Gemini-based bot to members - PSECU, a credit union in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, was an early adopter of digital banking — in 1995 it started mailing floppy disks to members so they could conduct transactions from home. Soon, it will be one of the first to offer members a way to manage their finances with Google Gemini.

• What's at stake: Consumers have started turning to large language models like ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini for financial help.
• Forward look: Experts say banks and credit unions will need t
• o offer their own large

In oversight preview, Dems demand FHFA's Pulte testify  — A group of Senate Democrats on the banking panel are calling on Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott, R-S.C., to compel Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte to testify, hinting at priorities for a Democrat-held panel next Congress.

• Key insight: Senate Banking Committee Democrats demand that the panel Chairman Tim Scott, R-S.C., call on Pulte to testify before the committee. 
• Forward look: Being in the minority, Democrats cannot compel Pulte to testify on their own. But if either chamber changes hands after this November's elections, Democrats will have subpoena powers and can compel testimony. 
• What's at stake: The letter previews a theme of oversight for the Federal Housing Finance Agency's next Congress.

Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte said last week that it will slash the budget for its inspector general, spurring Senate Banking Committee Democrats to seek his testimony.

From 3-Year Lows To 3-Year Highs In Nine Months: Mortgage Rates Surge To 7.49% As Bond Rout Hits Main Street  - Last December, we wrote that mortgage rates had dipped to 3-year lows. Nine months, one Middle East war and one global bond rout later, they are at 3-year highs.  According to the latest weekly data from the Mortgage Bankers Association, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage jumped another 19bps to 7.49% in the week ended October 2, the highest since November 2023, and up from 7.30% the week before, which itself was a fresh 3-year high. The culprit is not exactly a mystery. Mortgage rates track the 10Y Treasury, and the 10Y just had its biggest quarterly jump since 1994, hitting 5.34% last week, the highest since 2002. And with the long end leading the latest leg of the selloff, this morning the 30Y climbed to 5.70%, also the highest since 2002, while the 10Y was trading around 5.32%. Below we look at why the bond rout has finally landed on Main Street, what it is doing to housing (spoiler: nothing good), and why the sell-side's perennial "yields will fall from here" call is now 0 for 9.     As Reuters notes, home borrowing rates are up about 1.4 percentage points since US-Israeli strikes against Iran began in late February, closely tracking the jump in the 10Y yield, which was back above 5.3% on Monday. The drivers are the usual suspects: inflation fears from triple-digit oil (Brent was back above $101 this morning as Iran stepped up attacks on Hormuz tankers), surprisingly resilient growth, a Fed that is now hiking, and a bond market that has to absorb record Treasury supply and the AI debt binge at the same time.And it's not just a US story. On Monday, we put out this chart showing that global 10Y+ bond yields are now the highest since 2002: Since then it has only gotten worse: UK 30-year gilt yields hit a 28-year high this morning, while in France, where the OAT-Bund spread is back out to 140bps, European banks are tumbling as the French bond crash reactivates the "doom loop" (something we discussed earlier in "Bonds & Stocks Are Pricing A Fundamentally Different Macro Regime"). And as regular readers know, we've pinned much of the relentless Treasury selling on Japan, which has little reason to stop repatriating when its own long bonds yield near record highs.Translation: the global bid for duration is gone, and the US homebuyer is the marginal price-taker. Yesterday's subpar 3Y auction priced at the highest yield in 20 years as foreign demand slumped, and today the Treasury tries its luck with $39BN in 10Y paper at 1pm.  We have been tracking the slow-motion seizure of the housing market since late May, when refi activity plummeted as mortgage rates hit 9-month highs. By late September, homebuyers were turning to riskier mortgages as rates topped 7%, and last Thursday, after Freddie Mac's 30Y rate posted its biggest weekly jump since October 2022 to 7.28%, real estate agents told us that "showings have stopped". Today's MBA data confirms it. Mortgage applications fell another 4.2% last week, with refinancing applications dropping sharply. Overall application volume is now the lowest since February 2025, and has collapsed by nearly 50% since January. Or, in the dry words of MBA deputy chief economist Joel Kan, very few homeowners have an incentive to refinance "at these rates", while the jump in borrowing costs has pushed many would-be buyers out of the purchase market altogether.Some napkin math shows why. On a $400,000, 30-year mortgage, principal and interest at 7.49% comes to roughly $2,794 a month. At the ~6.1% that prevailed before the war, it was about $2,424. That's $370 more every month, or 15%, for the exact same house - and 68% more than the borrower who locked in at the 2021 lows (who, naturally, is not selling).That last point is the real problem. The lock-in effect, which was finally starting to ease over the summer as inventory approached prepandemic levels, is now back with a vengeance: sellers with 3% mortgages have zero reason to move, and buyers facing 7.5% have every reason to wait. Even BofA's REIT team, in its weekly U.S. REIT Weekly (available to pro subs), cites persistently high mortgage rates and elevated for-sale housing costs as a key reason renters are staying put longer - good news for apartment landlords; first-time buyers might see it differently.

Pennsylvania drivers cross state lines as Ohio drops gas tax - WKBN.com - — It’s as if gas prices dropped overnight — because that’s exactly what they did. Drivers may have noticed the dip Sunday, as stations across the state are gradually removing the gas tax. “I love it here. Gas is good,” West Middlesex resident Kim Hartle said. “What else could you want?” “I’m very happy about this. My husband will be really happy,” West Middlesex resident Stacy Kuhn said. On Thursday, Governor Mike DeWine signed a bill into law suspending the Ohio gas tax for 90 days. This took regular gas prices down by 38.5 cents and diesel down by 47 cents. “It’s put a heck of a strain,” Kuhn said. “Yes. It’ll help out immediately.” It kicked in at 12:01 a.m. Sunday. Some gas stations are still taking time to adjust, but others have already made the switch. The gas station in Masury right off Route 62 — less than half a mile from the Pennsylvania state line — dropped its gas tax Sunday morning. Since then, it’s had a long line of cars waiting to get to the pump. “Since we’re so close to the Pennsylvania line, it’s easier to come over here,” Hermitage resident Shawn Patterson said. “I live in Sharpsville, but I work in Warren, Ohio, so I make the trip.” Sharpsville resident John Jackson said. “It’s only 10 minutes to come, 15 minutes at max. So that works for me,” Hartle said. Lawmakers estimate the move will save Ohioans between $3 and $7 per fill-up — but it could save Pennsylvania drivers crossing over the state line even more. “Now it’s dropping lower in Ohio now than what it is in Pennsylvania,” Patterson said. “So come back across the line and get gas.” “Just because we live over the border. Yeah. It’s cheaper here,” Kuhn said. The price at one Ohio pump dropped to $3.69. Meanwhile, a gas station five minutes down the road in Pennsylvania was a dollar more. “I would hope that Pennsylvania would jump on board and do the same thing,” Hartle said.

Mechanic Warns Drivers About Common Repair Scams - Drivers who are already a little nervous that a trip to the mechanic will equal a big dent in their wallet might have good reason to seek a second opinion before shelling over the cash for a hefty repair bill.  A mechanic named Brad posted a TikTok video calling out technicians who allegedly recommend repairs that customers don’t actually need or claim work they never performed. “If you gotta lie for your hours, you’re not a mechanic. You’re a thief with a toolbox,” Brad said in the video. He explained that dishonest practices don’t just hurt drivers, either. They also make customers suspicious when an honest mechanic actually discovers thousands of dollars worth of repairs that their vehicle legitimately needs.Brad recalled recently giving a customer a $3,000 estimate for work he said that the vehicle genuinely required. However, thanks to the reputation some mechanics have created in the industry, he was hit with skepticism.“You are the reason why this industry gets a bad rap,” Brad said of dishonest technicians.“Some of y’all aren’t ‘flat rate killers,’ you’re just liars with a toolbox,” he captioned the video. “If you have to lie about [diagnostics], sell [expletive] a car doesn’t need or claim work you never did just to make your hours, you’re not good at your job. And then we wonder why customers don’t trust mechanics.”He concluded by writing, “Good techs make money fixing cars. [Expletive] techs make money fixing invoices.”Brad encouraged customers to get a second opinion, especially when they aren’t confident that all of the recommended work is necessary.

Iowa City Council Meeting Opens With "Hail Satan" Invocation  -  A former city council member opened Tuesday's Ottumwa, Iowa, council meeting with a satanic prayer that ended in "Hail Satan," and the city says it had no legal way to stop him. The invocation fell within a policy the council itself adopted on Jan. 20, according to the Ottumwa Courier. In other news, Ottumwa residents had a Satanist on their city council.Matt Dalbey, a resident and former council member, delivered the prayer at City Hall. Dalbey told the paper in a private message that the prayer is used by the Satanic Temple of Iowa, of which he is a member, and that it "has nothing to do with the belief in a satanic deity."The invocation, from the city's official recording of the Oct. 6 meeting:Soon after the Pledge of Allegiance, New Life Center pastor Rick Bick spoke out of turn, asking the room to "reverse this curse that was put on our city." Council member Cara Galloway told him to wait for the public-comment portion of the meeting. Mayor Benjamin Foote instead called a 30-second moment of silence, and Galloway objected that it was time to move forward before the mayor overruled her.The council approved the invocation policy on Jan. 20, with Galloway the only vote against. It says the city respects the diversity of religious denominations and beliefs, including the lack of them, among its residents.The city said on Facebook that it "cannot discriminate against a denomination," that it is not told ahead of time what an invocation will say, and that it does not automatically endorse what a speaker says. It added that it had been fielding calls all day, some cordial and many "rude and full of profanities."Galloway, who has never stood for an invocation, restated her objection at the end of the meeting. She said opening with an invocation means allowing viewpoints that may not reflect the council's own, and warned of "a financial liability on the taxpayers" if the city responds to one.City Administrator Philip Rath said on KBIZ that the policy's openness leaves the city in a vacuum. "You have to be open to allow people to express their different beliefs," he said. Rath said the policy could be revisited, but that its openness currently protects the city from legal challenges, and that amending it "could open it up for a potential suit down the road."The meeting video had been viewed more than 9,500 times on YouTube in the 24 hours after it went live on the city's channel. Dalbey is also scheduled to give the invocation at the Nov. 3 council meeting.

Christa Pike is awake and speaking after failed execution, lawyer says - The Tennessee woman who survived an execution last week is conscious, speaking and receiving medical care in a development her attorneys described Tuesday as “unprecedented.” In a statement, attorneys for Christa Pike said she remains handcuffed and shackled despite suffering significant injuries to her arms after two lethal injections of pentobarbital failed to kill her. The statement described her prognosis as unclear. “At a minimum, we expect a long recovery,” attorneys Randy Spivey and Kelly Gleason said. “We are incredibly grateful to the first responders and the medical team at the hospital who treated Christa like a human and have provided exceptional care to her. We also want to thank thousands from all over the world who sent messages offering prayers and support for Christa.” The statement said the attorneys will speak during a news conference Wednesday

Case dismissed against 1 of 4 adults after 16 children found in Ohio home - A judge has dismissed the case against one of the four adults charged in an Ohio child endangerment case where 16 children were found in “deplorable conditions.”The case against Gary Siders Sr. was dismissed after he was found not competent to stand trial, according to court records.Gary Siders Sr. is one of four adults who were charged after 16 children were found living in an Ohio home that officials called “third world” and “deplorable.” Gary Siders Jr., Elizabeth Siders and Christina Siders were all indicted by a grand jury in August. Elizabeth Siders and Christina Siders were indicted on 19 charges. Gary Siders Jr. was indicted on 16 charges.The adults were arrested after Vinton County Sheriff’s Office and the Ohio Bureau of Criminal Investigation executed a search warrant at the home in Hamden, Ohio Officials said they were there for an unrelated investigation when they found the children.Ohio Attorney General Andy Wilson said if authorities had waited another 24 hours to raid the home, some of the children may have died.Several of the children were in serious condition and two were flown to hospitals due to the severity of their conditions, Wilson said.“Some of the children could not even speak and looked like feral animals,” he said.The children ranged in age from 1 to 18. All 16 of them had to be medically evaluated.“The number one priority is to make sure that these kids are taken care of physically, mentally and emotionally,” Wilson said.

Michigan students lose bid to bring 'Lets Go Brandon' shirt ban case to Supreme Court The Supreme Court will not hear a dispute over whether a Michigan public school district can bar students from wearing clothing emblazoned with “Let’s Go Brandon,” a popular conservative slogan used to mock former President Biden. The justices declined on Monday to take up a request from two brothers who claim their First Amendment rights were violated when they were told to remove sweatshirts with the slogan because it violated the school’s policy against profanity. The brothers, identified as D.A. and X.A., were in sixth and eighth grade, respectively, at the time. They are now enrolled in a high school in the same school district, Tri County Schools, which is roughly 30 miles north of Grand Rapids. Lawyers for the pair’s mother, who sued the school district and two middle school employees in 2023 on behalf of her sons, argued the apparel is protected political speech and cannot be censored so long as it is not disruptive. A federal judge sided with the school district, finding that the school could prohibit students from wearing the slogan because it amounted to vulgar speech. A split panel for the 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals agreed. “In the schoolhouse, vulgarity trumps politics,” the appeals court majority wrote. “And the protection for political speech doesn’t give a student carte blanche to use vulgarity at school —even when that vulgarity is cloaked in innuendo or euphemism.” In their petition to the high court, lawyers contended that the appeals court misunderstood Bethel School District v. Fraser, a 1986 case that found the First Amendment does not prevent school districts from prohibiting vulgar and lewd speech. They pointed to a dissent from 6th Circuit Judge John Bush, who wrote that his colleagues’ decision “essentially gives school administrators boundless discretion” to censor political speech. “The Sixth Circuit’s decision deepens confusion and disagreement in the lower courts on an issue affecting tens of millions of public school students: What political apparel does the First Amendment protect at school?” the students’ lawyers wrote. The school district, however, argued the slogan’s apparent meaning as a euphemism for “F‑‑‑ Joe Biden” cannot be ignored. “Fraser holds that school administrators can restrict speech touching on political topics when that speech is vulgar, profane, or lewd — even when expressed in euphemisms,” its lawyers wrote. “A contrary rule would allow vulgar, lewd, and profane codewords to flood classrooms and would prevent schools from teaching students how to engage in political discussions with civility.”

Vance says 9 universities will be investigated over foreign visas - Vice President Vance JD Vance announced a probe Thursday into multiple colleges over their use of the J-1 visa program that allows foreign students and researchers to come study or work in the U.S. “Elite universities bring in foreigners to undercut the wages of American residents,” Vance said at a press conference regarding fraud and abuse in work visa programs. “There are nine universities in particular we believe merit an investigation.” The vice president specifically called out Harvard University, Yale University, Stanford University, Brown University, the University of Pittsburgh, Arizona State University, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the California Institute of Technology and the University of California, Davis. “What we see is when you employ an American worker as a graduate student as a researcher, they are making about $20,000 more than someone brought in under a J-1 visa and, importantly, these universities are employing J-1 visas for federally funded grants at a rate of 61 percent,” Vance said. “The national average is 38 percent, so something weird is going on at these universities. They are using these visas way too much. They are using them to undercut the wages of American grad students and American researchers, and it simply has to stop,” he added. The Hill has reached out to the White House for further details. Inspector General at the Labor Department Anthony D’Esposito said at the same press conference that “subpoenas have been served” and “investigations are underway.” Brown University confirmed it received the subpoena and said its “international scholars, students and employees make essential contributions on our campus, including to teaching and research that advances American innovation, competitiveness and economic vitality.” Stanford told The Hill it “complies with all applicable visa laws” and “will cooperate with the investigation.” “As one of the largest research universities in the United States, Arizona State University educates more stem majors than any other university and employs one of the largest technical and scientific workforces in the country,” a spokesperson for Arizona State University said. “This benefits both the Arizona and the United States economies and in doing so, ASU has hired the talent needed to perform these functions and done so in complete compliance with existing United States policy and law.” A spokesperson for MIT said the university is “in the process of reviewing this very broad subpoena” and that all J-1 visa holders at the institution have “been vetted and authorized to come here by the U.S. government.” “Yale is committed to full compliance with federal rules concerning visas, including the requirements for J-1 visas. The university will review the documents concerning this investigation once they are received,” a spokesperson said. The University of Pittsburgh said the subpoena asks “a number of questions about our participation in their visa programs” and that the university meets “all applicable federal requirements” with its use of the visa programs. Harvard said it is reviewing the subpoena. “UC Davis carefully complies with all federal laws and regulations for visas and looks forward to working with our federal partners to confirm compliance,” a spokesperson for the university said. The Hill has reached out to the California Institute of Technology for comment. “If an American university is breaking the law to save a dollar while exposing American research to a foreign adversary that is not academic excellence it is institutional betrayal,” D’Esposito said, referring to concerns of China’s influence in American universities.

Study suggests sugar-rich foods amplify antibiotic disruption of the gut microbiome  - A spoonful of sugar may help the medicine go down, as Mary Poppins sang. But for blood cancer patients on antibiotics, it could make things worse.That’s according to a five-year study that closely tracked the role that diet plays in antibiotic-induced disruption of the gut microbiome. The findings were published last week in Nature.The observational study, led by researchers with New York University Langone Health, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, and City of Hope National Medical Center, followed blood cancer patients during hospitalization before and after stem cell transplantation. Because chemotherapy saps the immune system, cancer patients are highly vulnerable to infections and rely on antibiotics to help fight them off. All of the patients in the study were on antibiotics at one point during the study, and many received broad-spectrum antibiotics, which are known to significantly disrupt the balance of good and bad bacteria in the gut microbiome and can leave people more susceptible to drug-resistant infections.What the researchers were investigating is how much a person’s diet, which has also been shown to shape the gut microbiome, contributes to this effect.In one of the largest and most detailed studies of its kind, the researchers tracked 9,419 meals eaten by 173 blood cancer patients from 2017 through 2022 down to the gram, asking them after every single meal about the amount they consumed and pairing those data with nutritional information on each meal. They then analyzed patient stool samples to monitor changes in the gut microbiome. “The microbiome is extremely important for our health,” co-senior study author Jonas Schluter, PhD, an assistant professor in the Department of Microbiology at NYU Langone, told CIDRAP News. But it’s even more important for cancer patients undergoing stem cell transplantation, as research has shown that microbiome disruption in these patients is associated with poor prognosis. “In these patients, there are strong associations over decades now whereby the outcome of the cancer therapy is associated with the state of the microbiome during the cancer therapy,” he said. “It therefore makes sense to study in these patients what one could do about the microbiome.” What Schluter and his colleagues found was that intake of sweets, sugars, and beverages (collectively referred to in the study as sweets) by patients in the study magnified what Schluter calls the “microbiome injury” caused by antibiotics. Analyzing data from 1,009 stool samples and 158 patients, they learned that, for every 100-gram increase in intake of sweets after antibiotic exposure, there was an additional 24% decrease in alpha diversity, which captures the number of different bacterial species and how evenly distributed they are in the microbiome. “The sugars exacerbate the already established diversity loss that antibiotics can cause,” Schluter said. Several layers of analysis returned similar results.Further analysis suggested formulated nutritional beverages, such as sports drinks and nutritional shakes, were key contributors to bacterial diversity loss, as opposed to naturally occurring sugars. The study authors note that these nutritional supplements are commonly recommended to transplant recipients. One particular bacterial species that appeared to benefit from the reduced bacterial diversity was Enterococcus faecium, an opportunistic pathogen that is a leading cause of hospital-associated infections. It’s often drug-resistant and can be especially devastating for cancer patients, particularly if it gets into the bloodstream.As Schluter explained, the simple sugars “feed the surviving bacteria, which exacerbates the damage to the antibiotics have done because often the surviving bacteria are not the ones we really want to see there.”Schluter noted that one of the antibiotics that E faecium is naturally resistant to is vancomycin, which several patients were taking to ward off Clostridioides difficile infection. The researchers also found that among those who had a higher intake of sugar, the duration of broad-spectrum antibiotic exposure was associated with a higher mortality risk.

Anthropic’s announcement of a ‘Claude-led’ CRISPR-like discovery is sparking controversy. Here’s why --AI executives are betting big on biology. They say their large language models that have already dramatically changed the fields of coding and software development and mathematics can upend biological research in the same way. But one company’s attempt to do so has already set off a wave of skepticism and controversy. Anthropic, the AI and research giant behind Claude, last month said its biology research lab had used AI agents to discover an unusual pattern of DNA in the genetic code of viruses, specifically a “novel enzyme system.” The signature is similar to the microbial system harnessed in gene-editing tools such as CRISPR Cas-9, which is used to modify the DNA of living organisms. The technology is commonplace in labs around the world and won the Nobel Prize in chemistry for its inventors in 2020 Dario Amodei, the chief executive of Anthropic, said on social media the finding offered great scientific potential. “Today we announced the Claude-led discovery of a molecular machine that we suspect could represent a new gene editing mechanism,” he wrote on X. Anthropic said the discovery had been made “with only high-level direction from our scientists” and shares of companies developing gene-editing technology fell shortly after the announcement.. However, some experts not involved in the work said the finding was early and incremental, and far from a genuine breakthrough. “These are very interesting preliminary results, but at this point they don’t demonstrate gene editing or provide a mechanistic picture of exactly what’s happening,” said Aaron Engelhart, an associate professor at the University of Minnesota’s Department of Genetics, Cell Biology, and Development. The Anthropic researchers have not determined what the newfound viral sequences actually do and thus whether they represent a mechanism that has practical applications similar to those used in CRISPR tools, according to a document detailing the research. The research also has not been published in a peer-reviewed scientific journal. Scientists, including Engelhart, said Anthropic’s finding definitely warrants further investigation, and a news release from the company quoted Feng Zhang — a professor at MIT and the Broad Institute in Cambridge, Massachusetts and a pioneer of CRISPR genome editing for sickle cell disease treatment among other advances — who called the work “genuinely intriguing.” But just days after Anthropic’s announcement, Mario Rodríguez Mestre, who said he used Claude extensively for his recently completed doctoral research at the University of Copenhagen, claimed his unpublished research describes the same viral signatures. “It is essentially the same finding. This is not simply a case of two groups studying related protein families or similar biological systems,” Mestre told CNN via email. Mestre’s claims echo those made by mathematicians after OpenAI, which built ChatGPT, announced it had solved a longstanding and high-profile math problem. They also raise questions about how Claude’s find unfolded. The biologists working at the Anthropic lab said they gave Claude a prompt to search a massive database of DNA sequences for “interesting new examples” of reverse transcriptase, or RT, an enzyme that copies RNA into DNA and thus plays a role in the spread of genetic information in an organism. The company said 950 AI agents, which can independently plan and execute tasks, spent 21 hours searching the data, picking out 3,500 RTs. It narrowed the pool down to the 20 most compelling. For an experienced scientist, this type of analysis can take weeks to months, according to a statement from Anthropic. Then, “one of the agents spotted something remarkable: a repeating pattern of DNA sequences that occurs next to the gene for an odd-looking RT,” the company noted in the statement. “After a thorough analysis it was convinced that it had found a new biological system, and filed a report for human review.” Anthropic said scientists at its biology lab then analyzed and tested the finding, which they described as a “previously uncharacterized” biological system in bacteriophages, a type of virus that attacks bacteria, with a similar structure to CRISPR, which is naturally found in bacteria. Mestre, however, said he had shared unpublished research on his private Claude account, including drafts of his dissertation, analyses and material describing these systems. “I am not claiming that Anthropic deliberately took our work. I cannot demonstrate that,” he told CNN via email. “Either information related to our work somehow reached the model and it was trained on it. The second possibility, which I currently think is more plausible, is that there was considerably more prior scientific knowledge and human direction behind the search than the phrase ‘autonomous discovery’ suggests,” Mestre added, referring to language used in the release. Anthropic did not respond to an emailed request to comment. It’s not unusual in the scientific process for different research groups to converge on the same result, but Mestre’s allegation is serious, and many scientists may think twice in the future about inputting their unpublished results into these tools, said Ilya Finkelstein, a professor in molecular biosciences at University of Texas at Austin. Still, Anthropic’s announcement does suggest that AI is beginning to work with more autonomy in science, said Gustavo Sudre, a professor of genomic neuroimaging and artificial intelligence at King’s College London. “It received a broad direction and then had to use its own judgement about what was interesting in the data. That is a real shift from the usual ‘analyze this dataset for me,’” he said in an email. AI excels at the “needle in a haystack search,” rather than the “imaginative breakthrough,” Finkelstein added. AI tools would help explore domains where students would get too tired or bored with finding an interesting pattern worth further investigation, he noted. “They can pursue a very large number of unproductive paths rapidly,” Finkelstein told CNN. “They are really good at grunt work when orchestrated by experts in the field.” Finkelstein also noted that the Anthropic paper’s lead author is Dr. Peter Yoon, who used to work in the lab of Jennifer Doudna, who is one of CRISPR Cas-9’s architects and shares the 2020 Nobel Prize with Emmanuelle Charpentier. So, Anthropic’s AI agents were guided by people at the top of their fields, he said. “Four of six authors are senior molecular biologists and domain experts. Give that group a heap of compute and frontier models (without safeguards, I’m guessing), and I’m sure we’ll be seeing more interesting bioinformatic discoveries,” Finkelstein wrote in a blog post on his lab’s website. However, other researchers say talk of autonomous AI-driven discovery is hype that gets ahead of the actual science, and models aren’t yet able to generate meaningful results on their own — despite the claims to the contrary. Letting a model comb through data at a scale no human can match does move a field forward, but it doesn’t necessarily herald a big advance, Sudre said. “From experience I can tell you that the gap between ‘interesting pattern’ and ‘useful knowledge’ is where most of the work lives,” he noted. Anthropic launched Claude Science, its tool designed for research, earlier this year. Its rivals have all recently unveiled similar tools. OpenAI has GPT-Rosalind, Microsoft has Quine and Google DeepMind has Co-Scientist. They operate like large language models but also harness specific scientific datasets such as DNA sequences. However, models are only as reliable as the data they are trained on. For example, the strength of Google DeepMind’s AlphaFold, which won the 2024 Nobel Prize in chemistry for decoding protein structures, comes from training the AI system on a narrow, specialized data source collected over decades. AI developers are under intense public scrutiny amid growing concern over rogue AI agents and whether AI companies can adequately police them. Biological discoveries can offer company executives an opportunity to craft a more positive narrative that counterbalances some of the doomsaying surrounding their products. But moving toward significant and tangible findings in the field likely requires integrating the AI models into hands-on lab work through robotics. “Biology is not maths and at some point the intelligence has to be expressed in the physical world through a robot that can do the fiddly one-off experimental tasks that a good student would normally do almost instinctively,” said Yuval Elani, an associate professor in biochemical technologies at Imperial College London. “From what I have seen of robotics and automation we aren’t really close. So it will be a while until we can really justify the hype around AI in biology.” Anthropic says it understands there is a limit to what artificial intelligence can do alone and is investing in “model hardware” that will allow AI agents to safely operate physical devices. Sudre at King’s College, whose work integrates genomic, clinical, neural and cognitive data to predict how mental health symptoms will develop in children, is emphatic that the role of humans in science isn’t shrinking. The risk isn’t that scientists will get pushed out of discovery, but that they’ll get lazy and won’t use their judgment to understand whether a result is meaningful, he said. The next step for Anthropic’s scientists is to do the slow work of physical lab experiments to understand the pattern they have identified, and whether the signature might have a practical use in biotechnology.

Doctors warn the flu is having a 'very early' surge in this region. Here's what you need to know. - We’re creeping into flu season in the United States, but certain parts of the country, namely the West Coast, are seeing an earlier-than-usual start to flu season and an earlier-than-usual increase in cases.  “Certainly in the Pacific Northwest, and ... in California as well, there has been an early rise in in flu cases,” said Dr. Helen Chu, a respiratory disease physician at the University of Washington Medicine. “Flu in the United States traditionally starts in the South and Southeast, and then sort of migrates up and then west,” Chu said, which means the Pacific Northwest and the West Coast tend to get flu last.  That isn’t the case right now. “This year, it seems like we’re having a flu A surge very, very early,” Chu noted. It’s too early to predict exactly what this flu season will look like, but you can expect to see flu spread to other states as we head toward winter. “Eventually, flu goes everywhere ... rarely does it miss a city in the U.S.,” said Dr. Andrew Pekosz, a professor at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in Baltimore. Flu does hit different regions at different times, though, so it’s particularly important to pay attention to your local health department to hear what local cases are like throughout the season, he said. This way, if you want to change any behaviors (such as masking in crowded spaces or avoiding a busy theater during the height of flu season), you can do so. The flu is caused by three different viruses: H1N1 and H3N2 (which both cause flu A), and the influenza B virus. “This early season here in the U.S., which is, again, focused mostly on the West Coast, is dominated by this H1N1 virus,” Pekosz said. There has been so much attention to this early rise in cases because of the H1N1 strain, Pekosz added. “Because it certainly, on paper, looks like a virus that could be a little bit more easy to spread and maybe infect more people because it’s better at evading that immunity that you have,” Pekosz said. Again, experts can’t predict what this potentially more infectious flu virus means for flu season, but prevention remains paramount. It’s also not currently known how effective the vaccine will be against the circulating strains of flu, but even if the vaccine is not a perfect match to the circulating strains, it still offers important protection. “Studies have also shown that even when the virus is a little mismatched from the vaccine, you can still see protection from severe disease,” Pekosz said.

Pennsylvania confirms more than 1,000 measles cases --Pennsylvania’s health department today confirmed the state has recorded 1,004 measles cases this year, an increase of 106 cases in the past week.More than 99% of people with measles in Pennsylvania have been unvaccinated, with just four cases in vaccinated people, according to the health department. Pennsylvania has confirmed 198 hospitalizations, for a hospitalization rate of nearly 20%. Five people with measles have died, including two infants; a 20-year-old woman with leukemia who was being treated with chemotherapy, which suppresses the immune system; a 40-year-old woman with asthma and another underlying lung condition called chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder; and an 18-year-old who developed disseminated encephalomyelitis, a rare neurologic complication of measles with a high death rate.  No other state has reported more than 1,000 measles cases in 35 years, when New York City alone confirmed 2,000 cases in 1991.Nationwide, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported 3,887 measles cases as of October 2, a 6.2% increase from the previous week.  The five deaths in Pennsylvania suggest the outbreak is much larger than reported, said Paul Offit, MD, director of the Vaccine Education Center at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia. Measles typically kills one to three people for every 1,000 people infected, Offit noted. With five deaths, that suggests there could be 5,000 or more cases in Pennsylvania. It’s possible that milder cases are being missed. Unless people see a health professional, their measles infection is unlikely to be recorded, Offit said. “Not everyone with measles goes to the doctor,” he said.   That’s especially true for Pennsylvania’s Amish community, which has been hard-hit by measles. Many Amish families prefer to care for sick children at home, rather than bringing them to the pediatrician. Health department officials in South Carolina also have said that the state likely had more measles cases this year than the official count of 997. Doctors in South Carolina aren’t required to report measles-related hospitalizations, according to a report from ProPublica. The United States declared measles eliminated in 2000, because high vaccination rates had stopped the virus from spreading from person to person. Although occasional travelers would enter the country with measles, the virus didn’t spread widely. Offit and many other health experts predict the United States will lose its elimination status next month, when the Pan American Health Organization meets to review the spread of measles outbreaks in the country. Pennsylvania healthcare providers vaccinated 53,000 people with the combined measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) shot in September, more than twice the typical number of vaccinations, according to the state health department.Those efforts may not be enough to stop the spread of measles, one of the most contagious of all viruses, Offit said. “Measles is now endemic in the United States,” he added. “We’re going to be seeing measles outbreaks for years.”

2 Legionnaires' disease cases prompt investigation at Staten Island apartment complex - - Two confirmed cases of Legionnaires' disease have prompted an investigation at a Staten Island apartment complex. The New York City Department of Health says two residents tested positive for the disease at the Castleton Park Apartments in St. George within the last 12 months. As a result, the city is now evaluating the building's internal hot water system. Health officials emphasized the probe is not focused on a cooling tower, unlike prior outbreaks across the city, and added this is not a community cluster investigation and there is no risk to the surrounding area. "It is okay to drink the building's tap water, but Castleton Park Apartments residents should follow the Health Department's recommendations for safe water use," the city said in a statement. "Remediation is underway, and the Health Department will continue to provide residents with updates and guidance." Officials urge anyone living in the Castleton Park Apartments who may be experiencing symptoms such as fever, chills, muscle aches, or cough, especially those 50 or older, smoke, vape, or have chronic lung disease or a weakened immune system, to get medical attention. Legionnaires' disease is a type of pneumonia caused by bacteria that grows in warm water and is not spread from person to person. Officials said building evaluations are typically launched when two or more residents are diagnosed within a 12-month period. Most people exposed to Legionella bacteria do not become sick, and the risk of infection from a building's water system is low for most healthy individuals, health officials said.   Recently, a Queens apartment complex underwent an investigation of its hot water system after two residents tested positive for Legionnaires' disease.Staten Island Borough President Vito Fossella said in part, "in the past year, several buildings in Manhattan were hit hard by outbreaks of the disease. We also know that being proactive can go a long way toward preventing more people from contracting the disease if it is present." Previous investigations on the Upper East Side and in the South Bronx needed a broader public health response because Legionella bacteria were detected in cooling towers at those buildings.

Kenya reports its first Ebola case, in man who died after arriving from DR Congo  - Kenyan officials confirmed today the country’s first Ebola case linked to the ongoing outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The man was a Kenyan citizen but had lived in the DRC for 11 years. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), the patient has been seen by heath facilities in the DRC, but on October 2 traveled by road to Kampala, Uganda, through Beni in the DRC. On October 3 he boarded a Jambojet flight to Nairobi, Kenya, where he passed through Nairobi’s airport health screening. After landing, the man was taken to Nairobi Hospital by a relative and was quickly placed in isolation. He had fever, chills, and bleeding under the skin.“Doctors suspected a viral hemorrhagic fever based on his symptoms and travel history and collected samples for testing. The sample tested positive for Ebola Bundibugyo virus,” Kenya’s defense minister Aden Duale said today.   Kenyan officials said the man would have a safe and dignified burial today.Officials said 28 contacts in Kenya are being observed, and are seeking 23 passengers and four crew members from the patient’s flight. It is not clear how the man traveled from DRC to Uganda, as Uganda has closed its borders to the neighboring country since May.“Health emergency preparedness gives us a head start. Kenya has put important outbreak control measures in place. The priority now is to move swiftly to detect any further cases before the virus has an opportunity to spread. We're supporting the ongoing efforts to strengthen the response, and with rapid and coordinated action, we can prevent the virus from gaining a foothold and stop a potential larger outbreak,” said Dr. Mohamed Janabi, MD, PhD, WHO Regional Director for Africa. According to the WHO, Kenya has screened more than 652,000 travelers entering the country, tested 267 suspected samples, and trained around 5,000 healthcare workers on Ebola prevention and management since this outbreak of Bundibugyo strain Ebola was declared on May 15.According to the most recent situation report from the DRC government, the country now has 8,544 confirmed Ebola cases, including 4,114 deaths. The case-fatality rate is 48.2%, and only 73.8% of case contacts are being traced.

Kenya: 10 people in quarantine as officials try to reach 57 more contacts of deceased Ebola patient |  Kenya said 10 people are in quarantine after a Kenyan man died in Nairobi on Monday from the Bundibugyo strain of Ebola currently circulating in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Officials also said they are attempting to trace 57 other case contacts. The man, who had lived in DRC for 11 years, arrived in Kenya over the weekend. He had been sick for one month before traveling to Nairobi via a flight from Uganda. Kenyan officials say they do not know why health screenings failed to detect the man in either the DRC, Uganda, or at the Nairobi airport. This is Kenya’s first Ebola case in this outbreak. Today, Doctor’s Without (MSF) said it was working closely with Kenya to limit potential exposures. “MSF teams have been supporting Ministry of Health staff with preparedness activities including the isolation and management of patients with suspected Ebola cases and the implementation of infection prevention and control measures,” MSF said.Today, Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention Director-General Jean Kaseya, MD, told the Associated Press that response is still lagging in the DRC, with 60% of deaths happening in the community and 70% of new cases coming without known case-contacts.“There are so many other people who are becoming sick, who are not tested, treated, or listed,” said Kaseya.  The most recent update from the DRC shows 8,665 confirmed and 4,178 deaths, with a case-fatality rate of 48.2%.In other news, Roche Diagnostics said it will send two molecular testing instruments to the DRC. Roche said it will preconfigure the LightCycler and MagNA Pure instruments, and local laboratory technicians will receive training before deploying the equipment to Bunia for validation testing.“Outbreak response depends on having the right testing capability available where it is needed," said Johan Descombes, general manager for Roche in West Africa. “Roche Diagnostics is helping to expand the laboratory capacity available to the dedicated responders in the DRC. At this critical time, local expertise is crucial to fighting the outbreak, and this is an important step forward in expanding testing capacity to help respond to local needs.”

Russian lab worker dies of 'unknown' illness as hundreds in quarantine - Hundreds of people have been placed into quarantine in Siberia after a laboratory worker died of suspected plague, according to reports. Darya Shipilova, an employee at the Anti-Plague Research Institute in Shelekhov, was exposed to the bacteria after she accidentally broke a test tube containing the pathogen while she was collecting samples, the Kyiv Independent reported. She was hospitalised on 29 September with severe pneumonia of "unknown origin” and placed on a ventilator, but died shortly after. Independent Russian outlet Lyudi Baikal reported that several hospitals in the city of Irkutsk had closed for a three-week quarantine. At least 197 people suspected of having direct or indirect contact with the technician have been placed under medical isolation, the newspaper reported. More than 100 of those individuals are currently being monitored in hospital wards. At the same time, local authorities have instituted strict quarantine measures across the district, targeting the Shelekhov District Hospital, a nearby maternity facility, and a local aluminium plant. Irkutsk Governor Igor Kobzev urged residents to remain calm, writing on Telegram that an anti-epidemic commission had met to address a "suspected case of a particularly dangerous infection." While his public statement did not acknowledge the worker's death, Kobzev stated that all identified close contacts remain asymptomatic and have tested negative. Russian law enforcement agencies have reportedly opened a criminal investigation into potential workplace health and safety violations resulting in the lab worker’s death. Former Rospotrebnadzor head, Gennady Onishchenko, downplayed the threat in comments to state news agency TASS, stating that the infection in the Irkutsk region is "most likely not the plague, but even if confirmed, there will be no spread of this disease." He added that widespread transmission remains unlikely, noting that cooler seasonal temperatures would help contain potential spread. Alexey Tsydenov, head of the neighbouring Republic of Buryatia, said in a statement that the woman had died of plague - but later edited his post to say she “may have” been infected with the disease. Because the facility specialises in dangerous pathogens, the incident has drawn speculation it could be pneumonic plague – one of three variants caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis. Unlike bubonic and septicemic plagues, which generally pass to humans via flea bites or contact with infected animals, pneumonic plague attacks the lungs directly and can easily spread from person to person through airborne respiratory droplets. According to guidelines from the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, patients infected with pneumonic plague typically experience rapid onset fever, headaches, and physical weakness, alongside severe respiratory distress such as shortness of breath, chest pain, coughing, and watery or blood-tinged mucus. While the World Health Organisation (WHO) warns that the disease carries a high mortality rate if untreated, it remains highly manageable with early antibiotic administration and standard infection control measures. A spokesperson for the US State Department said it was aware of a possible death due to the disease in Russia. “We are monitoring the situation closely with the CDC and our other interagency partners,” the spokesperson told CNN. “Many details have not been confirmed. We encourage Russian authorities to share accurate information quickly and openly.”

Suspected plague incident leaves 1 dead, 200 under quarantine in Siberia - A 28-year old female lab technician at the Irkutsk Research Anti-Plague Institute of Siberia, Russia, died of double pneumonia (infection in both lungs) late last week. Government officials in Russia have not confirmed that the woman died from pneumonic plague, but several media reports suggest she died after an accident involving a broken vial containing a live sample of plague, a deadly bacterial infection. Now, a rumored 200 people are suspected to be under quarantine.Rospotrebnadzor, the official Russian infectious disease agency, said, “No micro-organisms associated with the employee’s professional duties were detected in samples taken from the patient.”But over the weekend, media in Russia and elsewhere in Europe started to stoke concerns over a lab leak incident or fears that the woman worked in a bioterrorism unit. They suspected that the Russian government was covering up something that posed a serious risk to global health. Michael Osterholm, PhD, MPH, director of the University of Minnesota's Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), said that if the woman did die from pneumonic plague, it would be possible to contain, and close contacts and fellow lab workers would be given prophylactic (preventive) antibiotics.“This case does not cause undue concern,” Osterholm said. “We would like more information, of course.” Osterholm explained that if this incident happened in a friendly nation, people would not be so quick to jump to allegations of bioterrorism. But information from Russia, China, or North Korea often lacks transparency. Osterholm also said that, despite the attention-grabbing headlines, plague infections occur every year around the world.The bacterium Yersinia pestis is linked to three main types of plague. The first, bubonic plague, is the one associated with the Black Death and the Middle Ages. It’s spread through flea bites and attacks the lymph nodes. Septicemic plague is also spread through flea bites and occurs when the bacteria enter the bloodstream.Pneumonic plague attacks the lungs and is the deadliest of the three main plague types. It’s also the most dangerous in terms of biosecurity, because it can be transmitted from person to person via respiratory droplets. It is considered extremely contagious and has a short incubation period (time from exposure to first symptoms) of roughly 24 hours.From 2019 to 2025, the World Health Organization estimates there were 3,800 suspected plague cases (mostly bubonic) in 10 countries, resulting in 423 deaths.The United States tracks five to seven cases of bubonic plague each year, most often in the Southwest. Though plague kills 30% to 60% of people without treatment, all three strains are very sensitive to modern antibiotics.

Pneumonic plague: What is it and how deadly can it be? — A Russian scientist has died and 200 people are under medical observation as the White House is monitoring a suspected pneumonic plague outbreak.Russia has not confirmed that the worker died of pneumonic plague, with the death being attributed to pneumonia of unknown origin, but the case has prompted calls for more transparency from Moscow. Pneumonic plague is a disease caused when the bacterium Yersinia pestis, which causes the plague, enters the lungs. It is the only form of the plague that can spread person to person through bacteria-containing droplets in the air.  It can also be caused when someone has bubonic or septicemic plague, caused by flea bites or contact with bacteria-containing bodily fluid or tissue, and the infection spreads to the lungs.  The symptoms of pneumonic plague include weakness, headache, fever, chills, body aches, nausea and vomiting, shortness of breath and a bloody or watery cough.Symptoms appear one to four days after exposure and worsen quickly. Without treatment, pneumonic plague is almost always fatal.  However, the plague can be treated with antibiotics. With the pneumonic plague, beginning treatment within 24 hours of developing symptoms gives the best chance of survival. Both bubonic and pneumonic plague are caused by Yersinia pestis. The difference lies in what part of the body is infected. The bubonic strain is caused when the bacteria infect the lymph nodes, while the pneumonic plague is an infection of the lungs.Bubonic plague is also more common, with cases still reported each year in the U.S., but pneumonic plague is more serious. The infamous Black Death, which wiped out more than a third of the European population in the 1300s, is attributed primarily to the bubonic plague.Russia has not confirmed that the scientist died of pneumonic plague, but she worked at an anti-plague institute and reportedly broke a test tube containing pneumonic plague pathogens.The government has quarantined several healthcare facilities and is monitoring nearly 200 people who came into contact with the woman.

Forget The Plague, CDC Reports Recent Surge In Deadly Brain Fungus Cases The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has said in a recent report that healthcare officials and providers should be aware of a rare but deadly fungal infection that can affect the brain and has seen a surge in recent years. Published on Oct. 2, the agency's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report called for greater surveillance of Cladophialophora bantiana, which U.S. officials have said is known to cause brain abscesses. According to the report, the infection is linked to a 60 to 70 percent fatality rate. However, CDC researchers said in the report that national surveillance efforts currently don't exist, and that the fungus's "environmental reservoir" as well as the "route of infection" is not completely known. Between January 2009 and July 2026, there have been 48 confirmed cases and one possible case of Cladophialophora bantiana found in samples obtained primarily from central nervous system tissue, the CDC said. But from 2023 to 2025, "detections of the fungus increased approximately fourfold," according to the CDC report. Researchers said that it's not clear why there has been an increase in recent years but stressed that more research into its risk factors "and potentially evolving virulence are warranted." In patients with a brain abscess, healthcare providers should now consider whether it's due to a fungus, the report said, adding that infected people will require prompt antifungal therapy and possible surgery. "Surgical excision might improve patient outcomes," it said. Meanwhile, "patients with infection require prompt antifungal therapy, and surgical excision might improve patient outcomes," it added. Led by Joshua Lieberman of the University of Washington School of Medicine in Seattle, the researchers added that the presumed route of infection is inhalation of the fungus or direct inoculation following a skin injury. The fungus "is a rare but important cause of brain abscess in both healthy and immunosuppressed people," Lieberman told MedPage Today in an interview published on Oct. 5, adding that the reason it goes to the brain is "a little bit of a mystery." What is worrying about the infection, he added, is that "people who have apparently healthy immune systems get the infection and are also at high risk of death." "It's alarming that it occurs outside of those typical high-risk populations who have pretty profound immunosuppression," Lieberman stated. The median age of those who contracted the infection was 68 years, according to the CDC report. Cases have been found in 21 states across the United States, as well as the District of Columbia, the CDC report said. California had the most, with six cases, while Florida and Texas each reported five, and Pennsylvania confirmed four. Aside from Cladophialophora bantiana, the CDC has also issued reports about a drug-resistant type of fungus known as Candida auris, which is a yeast that is known to spread in healthcare settings

Infections with little-understood deadly fungus jumped 4-fold in US from 2023 to 2025 | US detections of Cladophialophora bantiana, a rare but dangerous fungus that most often targets the central nervous system (CNS), rose fourfold from 2023 to 2025, write researchers from the University of Washington (UW) in Seattle and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. For the study, published last week in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, the team analyzed all C bantiana cases identified through fungal polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing at UW’s lab from January 2009 to July 2026. C bantiana is a highly virulent mold that carries a 60% to 70% case-fatality rate, even with aggressive treatment. Half of infected patients don’t have weakened immune systems. Experts think the route of infection is inhalation or infection of a skin lesion, followed by spread to the brain, where it causes an abscess. But little is known about the risk factors or epidemiology of the fungus. “Furthermore, C. bantiana has only rarely been isolated from environmental sources, and many patients do not have similar exposure histories or risk factors,” the authors wrote. “National surveillance does not exist, and neither the environmental reservoir nor the route of infection is fully understood.” From 2009 to 2026, fungal PCR identified 48 confirmed infections and one probable case of C bantiana. The median patient age was 68 years. Of the 49 cases, 88% were found in brain tissue, and 12% were detected in the lung. No CNS infections were found outside of the brain. “Detection of 12% of cases in pulmonary samples supports the presumed respiratory route of infection,” the researchers wrote. One to five cases were identified each year from 2009 to 2023, rising to eight in 2024 and 14 in 2025. From 2017 to 2023, on average, 8.4 C bantiana cases were detected per 1,000 CNS samples. But by 2025, infections spiked to 26 per 1,000, a 210% increase the authors said was not attributable to an increase in lab referral volume alone. Cases were reported by 21 states and Washington, DC, with most originating in California (six), Florida (five), Texas (five), and Pennsylvania (four). PCR testing of cerebrospinal fluid performed before the death of the sole fatal case was negative for C bantiana in samples collected concurrently and one month before biopsy. The authors urged clinicians to be aware of the rising incidence of C bantiana in patients with signs and symptoms of a brain abscess. “Testing can be ordered through clinical reference laboratories that offer molecular testing for fungi in tissue or CSF specimens,” they wrote. “When possible, surgical excision should be considered, concurrently with administration of combination antifungal therapy,” they added. “Although the most effective antifungal regimen is not known, triple therapy (treatment with [the antifungal drugs] lipsosomal amphotericin B, posaconazole or voriconazole, and flucytosine) for at least 2 weeks has demonstrated some effectiveness.”

Hurricane Isaias raises flesh-eating bacteria risk for Gulf Coast  - - As Hurricane Isaias, the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026, approaches the Gulf Coast, experts are warning of a danger beyond the high winds and flooding—an increased risk of Vibrio vulnificus, or flesh-eating bacteria infection.  The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is forecasting an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the northern Gulf Coast, creating the kind of warm, brackish floodwater conditions that experts say have been linked to Vibrio vulnificus infections after previous hurricanes. While hurricane warnings have urged residents to prepare for power outages, the possibility of flash flooding and to obey any evacuation orders, research microbiologist Craig Baker-Austin told Newsweek that the danger may not be over after the storm dies down. A Vibrio vulnificus infection is a rare but severe illness caused by the bacterium Vibrio vulnificus that naturally lives in warm coastal waters.   People are most commonly infected by eating raw or undercooked shellfish, or getting seawater or brackish water into an open cut or wound. Health officials advise people to avoid exposing open wounds to floodwater or coastal waters after storms and to seek prompt medical attention if redness, swelling or blistering develops following exposure. People with liver disease, diabetes, weakened immune systems and certain other chronic health conditions are considered at higher risk of severe illness. Initial symptoms include diarrhea, stomach cramps, nausea, vomiting, fever and chills. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) warns that wound infections can rapidly worsen and may develop into necrotizing fasciitis, a severe infection that destroys tissue beneath the skin. That is why Vibrio vulnificus is often described as a “flesh-eating bacteria.”  There is some evidence that hurricanes can be linked to increased cases of Vibrio vulnificus. A CDC investigation found that southwest Florida recorded 38 hurricane-related vibriosis cases in the weeks after Hurricane Ian in 2022. Of the 38 storm-associated cases identified after Ian, 29 were caused by Vibrio vulnificus and 11 people died. Based on the region’s five-year median, officials would have expected a fraction of the cases during the period, describing it as a 1,100 percent increase. The CDC has warned that hurricanes, storm surge and coastal flooding can increase the risk of Vibrio wound infections by pushing coastal waters inland and increasing human exposure to contaminated water.“Hurricanes can drive large volumes of warm coastal and estuarine water inland through storm surge and flooding, increasing human contact with Vibrio-contaminated waters,” said Baker-Austin, an expert in waterborne disease emergence based at the Weymouth Cefas laboratory.Recounting the increase in cases following Ian, he said: “We have noticed this on a few occasions now, [including] Milton/Helene 2024 and previously Katrina in 2005.”

Tampa woman dies from dengue as Florida fights surge of cases  -A Tampa, Florida-area woman died last month from dengue fever. The woman was 80 years old and is the state’s first fatality from the mosquito-borne illness.  According to the most recent update from Florida Health, which tracked numbers through September 26, 252 cases of locally acquired dengue and 20 mosquito pools have been reported in seven counties so far this year.The number represents the highest US total of locally acquired dengue in decades, with Hillsborough County, home to Tampa, reporting by far the most activity (223 cases). County officials have extended a local dengue emergency through October 8.“Mosquito Management crews are increasing treatments by air and ground because the County's mosquito surveillance in many neighborhoods is showing dengue virus activity in the mosquito population,” said Hillsborough County officials. “The County is working closely with the Florida Department of Health in Hillsborough County for education and treatment in the impacted area.”There are no treatments for severe dengue infections, also called break-bone fever. Patients can seek supportive care, with most recovering at home. Tampa-area residents are being urged to avoid mosquito bites.

Rabid goats, otters, beavers, and bats are making news. Here’s how to protect yourself - One afternoon in 2017, Linda Kauss set off for her daily walk and jog through her Great Falls, Virginia, neighborhood. As she passed the fields and woods that dot the enclave’s horse farms, she noticed a fox. It seemed odd to Kauss, because the animals often emerge only in the evening to hunt. Suddenly, she felt a jolt of pain. “A fox had come up behind me and took a bite right out of the back of my leg, and then he just couldn’t stop,” Kauss, 80, told CIDRAP News. “He was crazed. He just attacked me over and over and over, and he could get his teeth in around my skin and hang on, and I couldn’t beat him off.” With chunks of flesh hanging from her and blood pouring from her wounds, she realized she needed help. With the fox clinging to her as it continued its attack, Kauss trudged to a neighbor’s house for help. When she rang the doorbell, it startled the fox, which ran away. “I was a bloody, bloody mess,” she recalled. Her neighbor called Kauss’ husband and 911. An ambulance rushed her to a trauma center, where she stayed for 10 days. She underwent three blood transfusions and rabies post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP), which included injections of rabies immunoglobulin (antibodies) in seven of the 16 wounds on her legs and hand to prevent rabies. “It was just horrible,” she said. “It was so painful. Even thinking about it now, it’s upsetting.” Soon after Kauss’s encounter, a neighbor saw the fox trying to attack his dog and knocked it out with a piece of firewood. Testing confirmed the fox had rabies. “They said he wouldn’t even have lived another six hours, he was in such bad shape,” Kauss said. “I couldn’t be angry at all at the fox, because he had no clue. He didn’t know what he was doing.” While rabies exposures like Kauss’s remain rare, in early September, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released a Health Alert Network advisory “in response to recent reports of increases in human exposures to rabid and possibly rabid animals.” Stories about human contact with rabid animals have certainly made the news in 2026. This summer, almost 300 people encountered rabid baby goats at a traveling petting zoo in North Carolina, and in September, a rabid beaver attacked a 13-year-old Maryland boy. An otter grabbed, bit, and tried pulling a woman swimming in Lake Tahoe underwater. Last month, a woman in Minneapolis put a bat lying on a sidewalk in a bag, and the bat later tested positive for rabies. And just this week, Los Angeles reported its first rabid racoon in more than 50 years.. “Rabies exposures tend to rise in the summer and fall season, as more wildlife and people are active and encountering each other. Part of the increase is driven by this predictable seasonal rabies activity pattern,” Ryan Wallace, DVM, MPH, from the CDC’s Poxvirus and Rabies Branch, said. “The larger increases that have been reported regionally are not fully understood yet.” Every year, about 100,000 Americans receive PEP after an encounter with an animal that either has confirmed rabies or an unknown rabies status, per the CDC. PEP works remarkably well, and fewer than 10 people die of rabies annually in the United States. Rabies spreads when saliva from an infected animal enters the bloodstream of a person or animal, most often through a bite. While the CDC issued a warning about increasing rabies exposures, it’s not clear if that means more animals have rabies. “What has increased are human reports of exposure,” said Meghan Davis, DVM, PhD, MPH, Bloomberg Centennial Professor at Johns Hopkins School of Public Health. “If we try to break that down, there are two potential reasons. One could be that there are more exposures that are happening, and that could be driven by local or larger increases [in exposures]. It’s also possible that people are more sensitized.” As people hear about rabid beavers or baby goats, they’re more aware of their own encounters with wildlife, and they’re more likely to report their experience or seek care. “There have been a few slightly high-profile cases,” Davis said. “Until we get the data from the individual municipalities, usually aggregated at the state level, it’s going to be hard to tell if we are also seeing increases in the number of animals being tested and the number of animals testing positive for rabies.” Wallace agrees. “CDC’s Rabies Program is the National Rabies Surveillance System and receives animal and human rabies data from all state health departments. The answer to what is driving this increase may be held within this data; however, it could be several months before that data is available to analyze and interpret,” he said. But he adds, “Currently, we hypothesize that we are seeing an increase in bat-human contact along with increased public awareness to notify public health when a potential rabies exposure has occurred.”

USDA notes more H5N1 avian flu on poultry farms | CIDRAP -According to the latest update from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS), there were six new detections of H5N1 avian flu this past week, including major outbreaks at two large facilities in Indiana and Minnesota.   Minnesota remains the epicenter of H5N1 activity, with 34,400 birds affected at a Stearns County commercial turkey farm. The state has noted eight affected commercial flocks, three affected backyard flocks, and a total of 343,050 birds affected in the past 30 days.In Indiana, a Jay County commercial duck meat facility with 24,300 birds was affected.In the past 30 days, 550,000 birds in 12 commercial flocks and nine backyard flocks have been hit with H5N1. In other news, APHIS also noted a new H5N1 detection in a dairy cattle herd in Texas. In the past 30 days there have been three avian flu detections in cattle, all in Texas.

How invasive Egyptian geese exploit food sources and carry parasites - The Egyptian goose, native to Africa, is considered an invasive species of Europe-wide significance. Researchers from the Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Center and Goethe University Frankfurt spent four years investigating the ecological and economic impacts of its expansion. An analysis of 100 Egyptian geese from the Wetterau region reveals an opportunistic, predominantly herbivorous diet and a surprisingly diverse parasite fauna. The research team identified seven parasite species in Egyptian geese in Europe for the first time. The study was published in the International Journal for Parasitology: Parasites and Wildlife and was conducted as part of the ZOWIAC collaborative project. Approximately 11,000 to 15,500 pairs of Egyptian geese (Alopochen aegyptiaca) breed in Germany, according to a nationwide survey conducted from 2017 to 2022. This waterfowl species, originally native to Africa, was introduced to Europe between the 17th and 20th centuries as an ornamental bird in parks. Since 2017, it has been included on the EU list of invasive alien species of Union concern. "Egyptian geese have long since become an integral part of the Hessian landscape as well. Whether in parks, outdoor swimming pools such as Frankfurt's Brentanobad or on farmland in the Wetterau region, conflicts can arise wherever large numbers of these invasive birds occur," explains Dr. Sven Klimpel of the Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Center and Goethe University Frankfurt. "At the same time, there is a lack of key data required to better assess the impact of the growing population and develop appropriate management measures. However, both the Federal Nature Conservation Act and EU regulations mandate the protection of native ecosystems from the impacts of invasive species." To this end, a research team led by the Frankfurt-based parasitologist and infectious disease biologist studied a total of 100 Egyptian geese from the Wetterau region as part of the ZOWIAC (Zoonotic and Wildlife Ecological Impacts of Invasive Carnivores) collaborative project. During the four-year study, the researchers closely examined 25 Egyptian geese each year from the same area near Nieder-Wöllstadt and Dortelweil. The birds were sampled as part of regular hunting operations and subsequently analyzed for their diet and parasite infestation. The study area is characterized by agricultural land, including numerous cornfields, and extends in part along the Nidda River. "To analyze their diet, we examined the crop contents of the Egyptian geese. Since the food in the crop is still largely undigested, this provides a particularly good way to determine what the birds eat," explains the study's lead author, Dr. Anna Viktoria Schantz of Goethe University Frankfurt. The results show that, across all study periods, corn, grains and grasses made up the bulk of the Egyptian geese's diet. The study also demonstrates that these geese, which are generally considered herbivores, consume a certain proportion of animal-based food. In addition to plant-based food, the researchers found, for example, earthworms and bivalve remains. "In one year of the study, strawberries were also detected in the Egyptian geese's crops. Since the strawberries had not yet reached their natural ripeness at the time of sampling, they may have been a food source provided by humans or otherwise accessible," adds Schantz. The dietary analysis shows that Egyptian geese make intensive use of anthropogenic resources at certain times. For example, corn accounted for 46% of the total crop contents, which made up 58% of the total weight of the diet. This was particularly evident during the 2021–2022 study period: Corn was detected in 95% of the Egyptian geese examined. "Our results clearly show that Egyptian geese consume the food items that are abundant and readily available—they eat whatever is there," says Klimpel. "If this occurs only sporadically, it has no major impact and does not necessarily mean that it will result in crop damage, for example, in corn cultivation. However, if huge numbers of Egyptian geese gather and frequent these very areas, this can, under certain circumstances, lead to conflicts with agriculture." In the species' native range, negative impacts on crop yields are already well documented. The research team also focused on examining the Egyptian geese for the presence of ecto- and endoparasites. "Given their sometimes highly specific life cycles and adaptation to certain hosts, parasites can serve as reliable indicators of the host animals' diet and lifestyle," explains Schantz. For example, the researchers detected the thorny-headed worm Polymorphus minutus—a parasite that infests the small intestine of waterfowl—in about half of the Egyptian geese examined. This parasite species uses copepods as intermediate hosts for its development. The infected Egyptian geese therefore must have ingested these copepods to become infected with the parasite. In total, the research team identified 17 parasite species in the Egyptian geese studied. Seven of these were confirmed as Egyptian goose parasites for the first time in Europe. "Our recent study shows that Egyptian geese not only cause conflicts in parks and outdoor swimming pools, but also use agricultural land as a food source, which can pose economic risks," adds Klimpel. "At the same time, these invasive birds carry various parasites that are also a concern for domestic birds and farm poultry. To better understand the impact of the Egyptian goose and its role in the ecosystem, year-round studies would be important. This is because their diet and parasite infestation vary depending on the season, habitat and climatic conditions."

Farmer-macaque conflict in Algeria poses a complicated conservation challenge - One of the hardest challenges in wildlife conservation arises when the habitat of a species in need of protection overlaps with land used by humans. Wolves and bears can kill livestock, elephants can damage homes and other property and wild boar can damage crops. In such situations, conservation is not only about protecting wildlife. It is also about finding ways to reduce conflict between people and animals. That challenge grows when the animals involved are highly adaptable and can learn to overcome attempts to keep them away from humans. This is the case with the Barbary macaque, an endangered primate native to North Africa. In Béjaïa province, northern Algeria, macaques and people share a mountainous landscape where many families engage in small-scale farming. In our recently published research in Scientific Reports, colleagues and I surveyed 94 farms to understand the severity of farmer-macaque conflict, the crops most affected, when crop-foraging occurs, the deterrents farmers use and the farm and landscape characteristics associated with frequent crop-foraging. The Barbary macaque is legally protected in Algeria, and hunting it or using prohibited methods such as poison can result in fines and prison sentences. Few farmers reported using poisoned bait or guns. However, continued crop losses could increase hostility toward the species if farmers lack practical ways to protect their crops. Therefore, it is vital to develop ways of protecting animals that minimize troublesome encounters with humans. About one-third of the surveyed farms had been abandoned because of crop losses associated with Barbary macaques. On average, farming contributed about 35% of household income, and for some families it was their only source of income. For these households, crop damage represents a substantial economic burden. The problem was also frequent. Around 68% of farms experienced daily crop-foraging by the macaques during conflict periods, while over half of farmers reported damage to infrastructure such as roofing materials and drip-irrigation systems. None reported physical aggression by macaques or concerns about disease transmission. This indicates that the conflict was mainly economic, affecting crops, property and livelihoods. Respondents told us that some crops were particularly attractive to the macaques. Figs were affected on almost all the farms, closely followed by apples and pears, grapes and tree nuts. These fruits were consumed whole rather than partially. Proportion of macaque foraging events by crop category in agricultural settings of Bejaia Province. Timing also mattered. Macaque crop-foraging peaked from July to September, when most local figs ripen, and declined from late fall into winter, as acorns, a key wild food, become abundant in the oak forests. Incursions were especially common at dawn and dusk, when human activity was lower. Not all farms faced the same level of risk. Larger cultivated areas experienced more frequent crop-foraging, while altitude and proximity to human settlements appeared to matter less. The farmers we surveyed already used many methods to protect their crops. The most common methods included guarding fields with dogs, using traditional fences and using slingshots. But simply using more methods was not associated with less frequent crop-foraging by macaques. This suggests the macaques alter their behavior depending on the obstacles they encounter and learn to circumvent them. Béjaïa province lost an estimated 50,400 hectares (124,500 acres) of forest cover between 2001 and 2023, about 40% of its baseline cover. The largest annual loss came in 2023, a year of deadly wildfires in the region. Agricultural land, meanwhile, showed no sign of expansion between 2014 and 2021. This indicates that recurrent wildfires in the forests and shrublands that provide natural food for macaques caused the greatest damage to their habitat. Our study cannot establish that habitat loss has led to the increase in encounters reported by farmers, but the pattern suggests that conservation measures should not focus only on farms. Almost all of the farmers we surveyed had received no wildlife-conflict management training, indicating a major opportunity for education and technical support. In addition, more effective deterrents, including electric fencing and motion-activated devices, should be tested under local conditions. Buffer zones planted with crops that are less attractive to macaques, such as citrus, may also help protect high-value orchards. Financial support is also important. Algeria's conservation strategy for the Barbary macaque has proposed compensation for losses, but such measures have not been implemented in our study area. Compensation or subsidy programs could reduce the economic burden on farmers while also reducing incentives for killing the animals. Protecting the Barbary macaque requires more than protecting the animals themselves. It requires safeguarding their habitat, developing safe and effective deterrents, enhancing environmental education and continuing research to better understand and manage encounters with humans.

Scientists search for answers as baby whales wash up dead in Argentina - Investigators in Argentina are trying to solve the mystery of baby whales washing up dead in unusually high numbers along the country's Patagonian coast. Scores of the calf carcasses have been washing ashore around Peninsula Valdes, a major breeding ground for southern right whales in Argentina's Chubut province. Hunted to the brink of extinction in the 19th and 20th centuries, the whales now gather in the peninsula's sheltered waters to give birth and nurse their young. "We're looking into the whale calf deaths based on 23 years of monitoring that we have of this same population. That's what allows us to say that this is an unusual event," said Marcela Uhart, a veterinarian with the One Health Institute at the University of California, Davis, who is leading the investigation as head of the Southern Right Whale Health Monitoring Program. The leading hypothesis is that the whale calves are suffering infections from marine bacteria that can enter their bodies through injuries inflicted by kelp gulls, Uhart said. For decades, the seabirds have pecked at whales surfacing to breathe, gorging on their skin and blubber. Adults learn to surface with only their heads exposed, keeping their backs underwater and out of reach of the gulls. Calves can't do that maneuver, leaving them vulnerable to attacks. The carcasses have been washing ashore around the gulf city of Puerto Madryn, including near the central waterfront where they alarm residents and tourists. Residents have reported hundreds of them, but researchers declined to give a death toll, saying that would become clear after the season ends around late November. Uhart and a team of biologists, veterinarians and park rangers have been searching the area for the dead calves from shore and with boats, planes and drones. The work is gruesome: They photograph and examine the bodies, racing against decomposition to collect skin and organ samples for testing at a veterinary school farther north, in the city of Tandil. Bacteria have already been detected in those tissues, but researchers are still culturing samples to identify the microbes and determine whether infection was the cause of death, she said. Even if bacteria are to blame, researchers must still determine why they have become so deadly this year. Changes in marine conditions like warming sea temperatures, potentially linked to climate change or El Niño, could contribute to "this perfect storm where this bacteria is powerful enough to overcome the immunity of the babies and cause their deaths," Uhart said. "So to the extent that we can, we'll try to identify at least what factors may be triggering this event and making it so massive." Right whales got their name from whalers who considered them the "right" animals to hunt because they swam slowly, stayed close to shore and floated when killed, according to the International Whaling Commission, a global body tasked with regulating whaling. Although illegal hunting continued into the 1970s, southern right whales have gradually rebounded since gaining international protection in 1935. But their recovery remains threatened by the same pressures facing whales worldwide: declining food supplies, fishing gear entanglements, oil spills and ship strikes. If losses on this scale recur, they could slow the population's recovery. By pinpointing what is killing the calves, researchers hope to find ways to protect the vulnerable population. "If the cause relates to something that we are doing as humans, then we need to change that," Uhart said. "We don't want to endanger these whales again."

One-third of world population exposed to harmful air pollution: Monitor  -Heat waves and wildfires combined with human-caused emissions this year to expose one-third of the world's population to extremely high levels of ozone pollution, a European Union report said Wednesday. In a new analysis covering the first eight months of 2026, the European Union's Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) highlighted the close relationship between climate change and air pollution. When heat and sunlight react with airborne emissions from wildfires, vehicles and industry, they create ground-level ozone pollution, which can damage lung tissue, cause breathing problems, trigger asthma attacks and lead to other health issues. Despite progress in cutting the most harmful air pollutants in recent decades, ozone has proved more difficult to tackle as climate change fuels the conditions that favor its formation. This year's ozone pollution was driven in part by record-breaking heat waves and wildfires that seared Europe and North America and sent smoke well beyond their borders. Indonesia has experienced major wildfires, while the warming El Niño weather pattern, which started in June and is due to peak later this year, could drive more fires in Southeast Asia, according to the analysis. "Air pollution does not stop at borders. It can travel thousands of kilometers, crossing continents and oceans and affecting air quality far from its source," CAMS director Laurence Rouil said in the Atmosphere Watch report. CAMS uses satellite data and computer models to track air pollution and wildfires. The report found that 34% of the global population was exposed to "extremely poor" air quality between Jan. 1 and Sept. 15, meaning concentrations of ozone were well above the World Health Organization's exposure guidance. The WHO's guideline sets 100 micrograms of ozone per cubic meter as the maximum recommended level of exposure, averaged over eight hours. Another 17% of the world breathed "very poor" air, while 5% was exposed to "good" levels of ozone. Asia has the highest rate of exposure to ozone pollution, with 53% of its population breathing "extremely poor" air. Another 22% was exposed to "very poor" ozone levels. The continent's widespread emissions are driven by industrialization, economic development and transportation, as well as wildfires and the burning of agricultural residue. This year's ozone pollution was fuelled in part by record-breaking heatwaves and wildfires. New Delhi, Dhaka, the Chinese megalopolis Chongqing and Pakistan's Lahore were among cities whose ozone levels were "extremely poor." Two-thirds of the population in North America and 45% in Europe were exposed to "poor" or "very poor" air quality. EU regulation has been effective in reducing emissions of air pollutants, except for ozone, the report said. Ozone pollution is linked to 60,000 premature deaths per year in Europe, Ian Marnane, an official at the European Environment Agency, told a media briefing. Ozone levels in North America also remained "relatively unchanged" despite ambitious emissions reduction policies, the report said. Smoke from forest fires, crop burning and cooking is a significant contributor to Africa's air pollution, while Saharan dust travels as far as Europe. In Africa, 8% of the population endured "extremely poor" air quality this year. It was "very poor" or "poor" for 19% of the continent's population. Ozone levels were very high in the Brazilian city of São Paulo and extremely elevated in Rio de Janeiro, but the air quality was "good" or "fair" for 81% of South America's population. One bright spot was Oceania, including Australia and New Zealand, where 66% of the population enjoyed "good" ozone levels and 34% lived under "fair" conditions.

Indonesia haze chokes neighbors, but little legal recourse -- Haze from Indonesian wildfires has blanketed neighboring Malaysia and Singapore for more than a month, closing schools and sending respiratory complaints skyrocketing. It is not the first time Indonesian haze has caused a regional pollution crisis, but neighboring countries have few options for legal recourse, experts say. Suggestions that Malaysia and Singapore take Indonesia to the U.N.'s highest judicial organ, the International Court of Justice in The Hague, face a basic obstacle: "The main issue is jurisdiction, as the ICJ generally requires the consent of both states," said professor Mohd Hazmi Mohd Rusli of Universiti Sains Islam Malaysia. The ICJ can hear a dispute only when states have accepted its jurisdiction, for example through a special agreement, compatible declarations recognizing the court's compulsory jurisdiction or a treaty clause referring disputes to it. Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore are neither signatories nor parties to the 1979 Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution, a European-centered treaty framework intended to curb cross-border air pollution. And experts agree Indonesia would be unlikely to willingly accept ICJ jurisdiction on the issue. All three countries are parties to the ASEAN Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution, but the 2002 deal has no clause on litigation before the ICJ. The ASEAN Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution is a legally binding regional treaty intended to prevent and monitor cross-border haze from land and forest fires and to mitigate its effects. But its enforcement provisions are limited. "It is legally binding, but it does not provide a mechanism for one member state to simply sue another," said Hazmi. Instead, it seeks to solve the problem through "national action and regional cooperation." Legal analysts say ASEAN's emphasis on consensus, sovereignty and noninterference puts the brakes on how much diplomatic pressure can be applied to member states over domestic land management and fire enforcement. "For now, I think the more practical approach is stronger ASEAN cooperation, including hotspot monitoring, information sharing, prevention and stronger enforcement against illegal burning," Hazmi said. One option could be for Malaysians or Singaporeans to try to sue companies linked to the fires in an Indonesian court, said Azam Hawari, a legal expert at the environmental law charity ClientEarth. However, "claimants would need to show a link between the company's activities, the haze that reached them, and their losses," Azam said, adding he was not aware of such a case having been brought successfully. Added Hazmi: "Transboundary haze does not automatically mean Indonesia is internationally responsible." "There must still be sufficient evidence to establish the link between activities in Indonesia and the harm suffered in Malaysia or Singapore," he said. Singapore enacted its own Transboundary Haze Pollution Act in 2014, after pollution levels spiked into hazardous territory the year before, followed by another episode in 2015. The law aimed to punish companies whose activities outside Singapore caused or contributed to unhealthy levels of haze in Singapore. Enforcement proved a major weakness because it relied heavily on cooperation from foreign authorities. Establishing responsibility was also challenging because it required authorities to share maps pinpointing fire hotspots, and conflicting or overlapping land rights could further complicate matters. Bringing a case against some companies with no presence in Singapore also made collecting fines or damages hard. Singapore's investigations into four Indonesian companies over their alleged role in the 2015 transboundary haze remain open and proved a source of diplomatic tensions with Jakarta at the time. Singapore will now most likely "wait for Indonesia to finger certain companies first before we take action against these same companies under the act," said professor Alan Tan, an environmental law expert at the National University of Singapore. "Otherwise, any action that Singapore takes would appear to the Indonesians to be unilateral, and could be politically controversial."

Clearer air does not always signal lower harmful potential from particle pollution - Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is commonly associated with both health concerns and poor visibility. However, these two effects do not necessarily improve or worsen at the same time. Professor Yu-Chieh Ting and his research team examined this relationship by comparing particle oxidative potential (OP), a laboratory measure of the ability of particles to participate in reactions related to oxidative stress, with their ability to reduce atmospheric visibility. The study is published in the Journal of Hazardous Materials. By grouping the samples according to their OP and light extinction (bext), the researchers identified four different pollution conditions. Notably, some samples showed relatively high oxidative potential even when light extinction was low. The comparison also showed that PM2.5 mass concentration alone could not fully explain either the oxidative activity of the particles or their effects on visibility. In other words, air that appears visually cleaner does not necessarily contain particles with proportionally lower oxidative activity. Influence of aerosol water content and acidity on the balance between particle oxidative potential and light extinction under decoupled conditions. Credit: National Taiwan University The researchers then investigated why these two properties sometimes diverged. The amount of water contained in atmospheric aerosols played an important role. When aerosol water content (ALWC) was high, water uptake and particle growth enhanced light scattering and therefore increased visibility impairment. Under drier conditions, oxidative activity became relatively more important compared with light extinction. Particle acidity was also related to this balance, but its influence was weaker than that of ALWC. These results suggest that changes in atmospheric conditions can alter how the same particle pollution is expressed in terms of oxidative and optical effects. The source analysis further shows that different types of pollution do not affect oxidative potential and visibility equally. Secondary sulfate and organic aerosols, traffic-related emissions and fossil fuel combustion contributed to both properties. In contrast, secondary nitrate strongly affected light extinction but contributed very little to oxidative potential. This difference helps explain why improving visibility alone may not produce an equivalent reduction in particle oxidative activity. Modeled source-reduction scenarios showed that controlling some pollution sources can provide benefits for both oxidative potential and visibility, while controlling others mainly improves one of the two. Although the most important sources differed between the two study locations, the results highlight the value of targeting sources with effects on both particle oxidative activity and light extinction, rather than relying only on strategies designed to improve visibility. "Better visibility does not necessarily mean that the oxidative activity of fine particles has decreased to the same extent. Our findings show that air quality management should consider both visibility and oxidative potential and target pollution sources that affect both," says corresponding author Ting of the Graduate Institute of Environmental Engineering at National Taiwan University.

Forests are dying along North Carolina's coast—and it's speeding up - A new study finds that coastal forest loss in North Carolina's Albemarle-Pamlico Peninsula began accelerating after 2010 and may still be speeding up. The study also found that North Carolina lost more than 20% of its coastal forest between 1985 and 2021. Researchers used satellite imagery to track coastal forest loss in North Carolina from 1985 through 2021 and found the state experienced a 21% loss of coastal forests, or approximately 64,220 hectares (158,700 acres). Just over 40,000 ha (98,800 acres) of that land was converted to marsh, ghost forest and shrub. That loss did not happen linearly, said Titilayo Tajudeen, lead author of a paper on the study and a graduate researcher at North Carolina State University. "Between 2010 and 2021, we saw 23,876 ha (59,000 acres) of forest were converted to marsh, ghost forest and shrub," Tajudeen said. "That is 1.5 times higher than the 16,968 ha (41,900 acres) lost to marsh, ghost forest and shrub between 1985 and 2010." Sea level rise was the chief driver of forest loss. As sea levels rise, salty water inundates forest areas, killing trees and converting the area into ghost forest. Conversion into ghost forest has sped up even more than overall forest loss. Ghost forests grew by 7,561 ha (18,700 acres) between 2010 and 2021, 2.5 times faster than between 1985 and 2010 (3,087 ha (7,600 acres)). Most of the highly affected areas were concentrated within one kilometer (0.6 miles) of the coast. Some had been subject to a series of extreme events. "This area experienced severe drought from 2007 to 2011, and then also Hurricane Irene in 2011," Tajudeen said. "While these events occurred long before 2021, some of the areas simply never recovered. Despite being protected, a combination of these extreme events along with rising sea levels has pushed them into new ecological states, including becoming ghost forests." To determine the rate of forest loss, researchers used two satellite imagery tools, known as Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2. Scientists used these image databases to train an AI model, known as a convolutional neural network, which processes the type of grid-like data that Landsat and Sentinel provide. By doing so, the neural network can help identify which areas of the image are forest land and which areas have been converted to marsh, ghost forest and shrub. The Sentinel-2 data has a resolution of 10 meters, which is finer and sharper than the 30-meter Landsat 8 resolution. However, Landsat's database covers a much longer period, which is what enabled researchers to examine forest loss going back to 1985. Both Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 had data for 2021, so researchers compared their performance in that year to determine which data set provided more accurate readings. They found that the sharper Sentinel-2 data outperformed Landsat images, but that Landsat was still an important tool because of its longer-term data record. The paper, "Mapping coastal forest retreat using convolutional neural networks and different satellite imagery," is published in PLOS One.

Nature's capacity to 'bounce back' when species are lost is vastly overestimated, global analysis finds - The idea that ecosystems carry plenty of backup, so if a small number of species become extinct there is little harm, has been greatly overestimated, according to the largest global study of its kind. New research led by King's College London and Imperial College London warns that a lack of biodiversity could threaten people's food security and climate protection, as diverse ecosystems provide a wide range of benefits that people depend on, including pollination, water purification, carbon storage and natural pest control. The study found that ecosystems have far less "spare" capacity than previously thought, with the ocean potentially having the most to lose. The study, published in Nature Ecology & Evolution, combined 423 published studies and 222,829 data points across land, freshwater, marine and estuarine ecosystems, producing a database more than twice the size of the largest previous effort and the largest of its kind. Across 23 categories of ecosystem services and functions, most benefits rose steadily with biodiversity rather than leveling off once a handful of species were present. The findings suggest that functional redundancy—the idea that species can substitute for one another, so losses do little harm—has been overestimated. "Our findings challenge the comfortable assumption that ecosystems carry plenty of backup, so losing a species here and there doesn't change much. Across most of the benefits ecosystems provide that we looked at, the data doesn't support that. The ecological benefits keep climbing as diversity rises, which means they fall as we lose species." Ocean carbon sequestration, the process of capturing and storing carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the atmosphere in marine waters and sediments, showed by far the strongest positive response to biodiversity of any service measured. This indicates that so-called blue carbon sinks—the ocean and coastal ecosystems such as coral reefs, salt marshes or mangroves that capture and store carbon dioxide from the atmosphere—depend on sustaining diverse marine communities, from phytoplankton to the microbial food webs that pump carbon into deep water. The authors caution that this result rests on a small number of data sets and identify it as an urgent gap in current knowledge. "The ocean result stopped us in our tracks. Carbon capture at sea responded to biodiversity more strongly than anything else we measured, and yet it's one of the least studied areas we found. If the world is counting on blue carbon to help with climate change, marine life can't be an afterthought." Some ecosystem services proved exceptions. Protection against hazards such as coastal flooding and erosion was relatively insensitive to biodiversity overall, because it often depends on one or two foundational species, such as the shrubs that stabilize sand dunes. The authors argue that conservation must therefore balance maintaining overall diversity with safeguarding irreplaceable foundational species. "We've known that biodiversity supports humanity by providing us with food, clean water, clean air and so many other ecosystem services. But what this model gives us is a precise, global picture: We can now predict the benefits biodiversity provides anywhere, making it even easier to recognize and take advantage of those benefits." The full database and model forecasts across all 23 ecosystem service and function categories are publicly available to support policy and planning. The team also used the database to look ahead, linking it to biodiversity projections under the socioeconomic scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The researchers' model predicts that biological pest control on farmland, delivered free by the natural enemies of crop pests, declines under a fossil-fuel-driven development path compared with one with less fossil fuel, with the sharpest losses in countries experiencing rapid population growth and lower levels of development.

Why the nor'easter's storm surge was so high, and what it says about the El Niño winter ahead - As a powerful nor'easter hit the U.S. Atlantic coast in late September 2026, the ocean poured into coastal neighborhoods from North Carolina to New York. Water from the storm surge and heavy rain filled streets and surrounded homes as near-hurricane-force winds knocked out power. It may have even uncovered a shipwreck more than a century old.Atlantic City, New Jersey, saw its highest water level since Superstorm Sandy in 2012, as the storm surge washed into houses and vehicles and eroded protective beach dunes. People may be wondering if the nor'easter flooding is a prelude to what to expect as a strong El Niño continues to build this winter and as sea level rises in the future. To understand the risks, let's break down what caused the water to rise so high. Several factors go into high water levels, and they combined to worsen flooding during the nor'easter.Storm surge is the piling up of water caused by strong winds pushing water onshore. As the nor'easter began to take shape, gale-force winds began pushing water over hundreds of miles of the Atlantic toward the coast. As the storm strengthened and its pressure dropped, the winds grew stronger and this push of water intensified.There are four basic factors that determine the surge height at any given location: the strength of the onshore wind, the size of the storm, the shape of the coastline and the depth of the ocean.The September 2026 surge was highest where the water was directed into shallow bays and inlets. In those areas, the push of water becomes concentrated into a small area with nowhere to go but onto land. Some of the largest surges during the nor'easter were in Raritan Bay in New Jersey and Delaware Bay. The slow movement of the nor'easter up the East Coast resulted in a large, sustained surge.  Inundation—the actual water level above the ground—depends on both the storm surge and the tide.The greatest flooding occurs when the peak storm surge coincides with high tide. Worse yet is when the high tides are higher than normal, such as around a full moon. The gravitational pulls of both the moon and the sun combine around a full moon to make the tides larger. That's what happened during the height of the nor'easter. Additionally, the long duration of the nor'easter allowed inundation to occur over multiple high tides, resulting in repeated rounds of coastal flooding. Another important factor for inundation is sea-level rise. Sea-level rise is occurring because the planet is warming. That melts glaciers, sending more water into the oceans, and causes the ocean to physically expand. Sea-level rise is occurring faster in parts of the U.S. East Coast compared with other areas, primarily due to something called postglacial rebound. The weight of the Laurentide ice sheet that covered large parts of North America thousands of years ago pushed down the land below it, while causing the land around its edges to rise—including along the mid-Atlantic seaboard. As the ice melted, those edges that had lifted slowly sank again.In Atlantic City, sea level is rising at a rate of about 2 inches (50 millimeters) every decade. A couple of inches can mean the difference between water staying out of one's house or pouring in. Even if nor'easters don't become stronger in the future, they will become more damaging because sea level is already higher, and more places will experience flooding.With one of the strongest El Niños in recent memory already affecting weather patterns around the world, is this early-season nor'easter a sign of things to come? It's difficult to say. One study found that strong nor'easters along the East Coast are more likely during El Niño years.Seasonal forecasts from computer models suggest an increased chance of above-normal precipitation along the East Coast during the winter. This suggests moisture-laden storms with heavy precipitation may be more likely to move up the coast with damaging storm surges. However, every El Niño is different, and there are few past El Niños close to the strength expected this time to compare with.The best advice this El Niño winter is to be proactive in preparing and monitoring the weather. Check your insurance policies to understand your coverage, particularly if you are in a flood-prone area. Have an emergency supply kit and make sure its contents are refreshed.

Nolo becomes a Category 3 Hurricane in the remote Pacific Ocean – -Nolo strengthened into a major hurricane Saturday in the remote Pacific Ocean, far to the west of Hawaii's main islands and population centers. The storm's maximum sustained winds rapidly intensified to 115 mph (185 kph), the Miami-based National Hurricane Center reported, meaning it was a Category 3 hurricane. As of the evening, Nolo was located about 200 miles (320 kilometers) south-southwest of Lisianski Island and moving westward at 20 mph (31 kph). A tropical storm warning was issued for the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument — a massive and remote federally protected area with islands, atolls, seamounts, shoals and coral reefs — from Maro Reef to Lisianski Island. The hurricane center said large surf associated with Nolo “will likely inundate some of the low-lying atolls.” No threat was in the forecast for any populated islands, however. The hurricane center said Nolo was expected to cross the international date line Sunday. Nolo skirted Hawaii as a hurricane a week ago. It then lost some of its punch and became a tropical storm, before regaining hurricane strength Friday. Meanwhile another Pacific hurricane, Category 1 Rachel, continued heading westward on a path away from the west coast of Mexico. Dangerous swells were forecast through the weekend for the coast of west-central Mexico and through Monday for the Baja California Peninsula, according to the hurricane center.

Hurricane Rachel to turn back toward land, bringing dangerous surf to California as Simon looms  (video report) Hurricane Rachel is weaking in the open Pacific but is forecast to make a sharp turn back toward land later this week, potentially bringing more life-threatening surf to Southern California after swells from Hurricane Marie caused coastal erosion in the same area last month. Meanwhile, Invest 92E off southern Mexico is expected to strengthen into Tropical Storm Simon later this week. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is also monitoring another area for tropical development behind Invest 92E and is currently giving this system low odds of developing over the next seven days.

Hurricane Rachel Takes Alarming Turn Toward Southern California (Video) Hurricane Rachel spent days doing what most Eastern Pacific hurricanes do: spinning safely westward into the open ocean. Now, it’s turning around. The National Hurricane Center says Rachel will slow before making a “sharp turn to the northeast” by the end of the week, accelerating back toward Baja California and Southern California. As of Wednesday afternoon, Rachel remained a Category 1 hurricane with 80-mph sustained winds roughly 800 miles west of southern Baja. Peak seas surrounding the storm were running around 35 feet. The projected turn is highly unusual—though not unprecedented. Eastern Pacific hurricanes are normally steered westward away from California. This time, an approaching upper-level trough is expected to essentially grab Rachel and pull it northeast. “Rachel is expected to slow down and then turn toward the northeast,” the NHC said, before accelerating toward Baja and Southern California. Forecasters stressed that there remains considerable uncertainty once the turn begins. Rachel should weaken over cooler water and could be post-tropical before reaching land, potentially somewhere in northern Baja or near the U.S.-Mexico border Sunday. Still, its moisture, winds and ocean energy could have significant consequences. Southern California is already feeling the ocean effects. Supercharged by Super El Niño, Hurricane Rachel hurls 25-foot surf at Cabo and sends solid long-period swell toward Southern California. National Weather Service forecasters expect 3-to-6-foot surf across Orange and San Diego counties, dangerous rip currents and coastal flooding around 6.5-to-7-foot tides. By Sunday, Los Angeles-area forecasters say tides could reach approximately 7.5 feet, with vulnerable beaches facing “considerable to significant impacts.”

Hurricane Isaias tracker: Category 2 storm expected to strengthen before making landfall along Gulf Coast; evacuations ordered in Alabama and Florida -- Hurricane Isaias, the first hurricane of the Atlantic season, is expected to strengthen as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Friday, bringing damaging winds, drenching rain and the possibility of life-threatening storm surge, prompting mandatory evacuation orders in Alabama and Florida. According to the National Hurricane Center, Isaias, now a Category 2 storm, is forecast to make landfall late Friday or early Saturday as a Category 1, with damaging hurricane-force winds. Exactly where is unclear. Current models show the center of Isaias coming onshore anywhere from eastern Mississippi to the western tip of the Florida Panhandle. The governors of Florida, Alabama and Georgia declared states of emergency ahead of the storm. Numerous counties in Mississippi also did. "Floridians should take this time to get disaster plans in place and ensure their hurricane supply kit is stocked," Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said, urging residents in the storm's path to "execute your hurricane plan." Mandatory evacuation orders were issued for parts of Alabama's Dauphin Island and Florida's Walton, Escambia and Okaloosa Counties. "Residents should take this storm seriously and evacuate," the Okaloosa County government said in a news release. Officials in several coastal cities, including Alabama's Gulf Shores and Orange Beach, urged voluntary evacuations. "In anticipation of the expected impacts from Tropical Storm Isaias, the cities of Gulf Shores and Orange Beach are encouraging all non‑residents, and residents living in low-lying, flood-prone areas to voluntarily evacuate," Gulf Shores and Orange Beach said in a joint statement. The University of Alabama said that it is closely monitoring Isaias, but that the Crimson Tide's home football game against Georgia in Tuscaloosa, Ala., scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, Saturday, will go on as scheduled. President Trump is planning to attend the game. ESPN's College GameDay said it will move its popular roadshow inside. The Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June to November, had not gone this late in the year without a hurricane since 1905, according to the Associated Press. A typical Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes. This year, there had been eight named storms and no hurricanes prior to Isaias. According to the hurricane center's latest advisory, as of 8 p.m. ET on Thursday:

• Isaias was located about 290 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi River
• It had maximum sustained winds of 100 mph
• It was moving northeast at 13 mph

"Additional strengthening is expected through early Friday, and Isaias should remain a dangerous hurricane as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast Friday night," the weather service said. Are there any watches or warnings in effect? Hurricane, tropical storm and storm surge warnings have been issued across portions of the northern Gulf Coast. A hurricane warning is in effect for Ocean Springs, Miss., to the Bay/Gulf County Line, Fla. A tropical storm warning is in effect for The Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish line in Louisiana to west of Ocean Springs, Miss. East of the Bay/Gulf County Line to the Aucilla River, Fla. A storm surge warning is in effect for The mouth of the Mississippi River to the Suwannee River, Fla. A storm surge watch is in effect for The Suwannee River, Fla., to Yankeetown, Fla.

Live updates: Category 2 Hurricane Isaias storms closer to the Gulf Coast -  Isaias strengthened into the first hurricane of the Atlantic season overnight as it surged toward the Gulf Coast, the National Hurricane Center said. Isaias could become a major Category 3 hurricane, with winds of 111 mph or stronger, before it makes landfall. Forecasters are warning of dangerous and life-threatening conditions along parts of the Gulf Coast beginning today and into the weekend. The National Hurricane Center has issued a hurricane warning from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to the Bay/Gulf county line in Florida. Other watches and warnings were also in effect. Ahead of the storm, oil and gas producers shut down a significant share of offshore production in the Gulf, which accounts for almost 15% of crude pumped annually in the U.S.As of Thursday, about 63% of the oil production in the region had been temporarily halted, taking nearly 1.3 million barrels a day off the market, according to the Marine Minerals Administration. It said 121 of the Gulf’s 371 manned oil platforms had been evacuated.With oil prices already high, the production cuts are steep enough to affect markets, though other Gulf hurricanes have caused larger disruptions, said Jim Burkhard, global head of crude oil market research for S&P Global Energy. More concerning, he said, is whether Isaias strikes as a powerful storm near refineries. Rep. Jimmy Patronis, R-Fla., told residents today “don’t be a knucklehead” and urged them to take the storm seriously and heed evacuation orders. “Don’t think you can handle this storm,” Patronis, whose district covers the western Florida panhandle, said at a news conference. Rep. Jimmy Patronis. Rep. Jimmy Patronis, R-Fla. Bill Clark / CQ-Roll Call via Getty “We’ve got 1.8 million new Floridians in the state of Florida since 2018. A lot of those folks have no idea what they’re in for,” he said. “I’m glad they’re in our state. I’m glad they’ve decided to retire here, bring their business, but they don’t know what a hurricane can do to them," he said. “Err on the side of caution. If you’re told to evacuate, please leave,” he said. Gas station chain Circle K said that because of increased demand in advance of Hurricane Isaias, some stations were experiencing problems. “We are seeing increased demand for fuel as customers prepare for Hurricane Isaias. As a result, some Circle K locations may be temporarily awaiting fuel deliveries,” a Circle K spokesperson said. “Our teams are working as quickly as possible to ensure customers can fuel up at our sites, and they are prepared to continue serving our communities safely,” the spokesperson said. Some Floridians spent part of today filling sandbags to protect their homes against the rain and flooding expected from Hurricane Isaias. “I’m trying to make sure that the flooding from my neighbor’s house doesn’t go into mine,” Nathalie Williams told NBC News at a site in Pensacola where she and others shoveled the sand into bags and put them in their vehicles. Escambia County, Florida, Sheriff Chip Simmons urged people to prepare and warned that help might not be available when needed at the height of the storm. “Eventually, we’re going to close bridges down,” Simmons said. “We’re going to get a phone call in our dispatch, and it’s going to break our heart,” he warned. “You know why? Because someone’s going to plead for help. They’re going to drown. They may have kids with them. They may have dogs with them, and we’re going to have to tell them we can’t go,” he said. "The conditions are so bad we can’t get there. A cruiser car can’t get there.” The sheriff’s office will respond as soon as it can, Simmons said. “What we do is we take the names down, and then we wait and wait and wait until the very first break. Sometimes it’s the eye, sometimes it’s the first break, and then we go there,” he said. “And we do what we can. Sometimes it’s in time, but unfortunately, in the storms we’ve had in the past, it’s been too late,” Simmons said.

Isaias weakens to Category 1 hurricane after Florida landfall, NHC says (Reuters) - Hurricane Isaias rapidly lost windspeed on Friday, weakening into a Category 1 event after making landfall near Destin, Florida, the US National Hurricane Center said, but warned of danger from storm surges and floods as power links snapped. The hurricane was about 65 miles (105 km) west-northwest of Panama City, Florida, packing maximum sustained winds of 90 mph (150 kph), the NHC said in its most recent advisory. The agency warned against a life-threatening storm surge affecting the Gulf Coast as dangerous hurricane conditions and flash floods spread inland. The hurricane is expected to cross Alabama and into the Tennessee Valley on the weekend, the agency added. Nearly 380,000 people in Florida and more than 210,000 in Alabama were left without power as the storm hit shore, the website Poweroutage.us showed. "Emergency declarations have been approved in Florida and Alabama to ensure federal resources are available to respond to Isaias," Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin said on X. Florida's emergency services urged residents to shelter in place and watch for hurricane conditions across the state's north after Isaias hit land as a category 2 storm.

Hurricane Simon update: Storm expected to become category 4 -- Hurricane Simon advanced towards part of Mexico’s Pacific coast on Friday and was expected to get much stronger, threatening the tourist destination Puerto Vallarta and Jalisco. A hurricane warning for parts of the central and southwest coast was issued by US forecasters, with hurricane-force winds expected in said areas within 36 hours. The US National Hurricane Center in Miami said the Category 1 hurricane had maximum sustained winds of 150 kph (90 mph) early on Friday and was heading northwest at 7 kph (5 mph). It was set to turn to the north by early Saturday and approach the coast. Meanwhile, Simon was expected to intensify rapidly and become a Category 4 storm before landfall. Category 4 hurricanes on the Saffir-Simpson scale have maximum sustained winds of 210-250 kph (130-156 mph). Simon was centered about 345 kilometers (215 miles) south of Manzanillo and 515 kilometers (320 miles) south-southeast of Cabo Corrientes. Tropical storm conditions were possible along the coast later on Friday. The state of Jalisco suspended classes on Friday and Monday in 22 coastal municipalities and began evacuating dozens of people from at-risk areas. It also asked the tourism sector in Puerto Vallarta to ensure that both workers and visitors are fully accommodated in shelters or safe zones by Friday afternoon. “If we let our guard down and try to come up with a last-minute action plan, it is highly likely that lives will be lost,” said the state director of civil protection, Sergio Ramírez. Governor Pablo Lemus urged the public to stay informed at all times given the hurricane’s “highly erratic behavior,” which has caused it to change direction between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta. “What is certain is that it will hit the coast of Jalisco with very heavy rains starting this Friday, throughout the weekend, and on Monday,” he said. Simon was expected to produce torrential rainfall that could cause flooding and mudslides. U.S. forecasters said 20 to 38 centimeters (8 to 15 inches) of rain could fall in southwestern Mexico, with isolated areas getting up to 63 centimeters (25 inches). Given the popularity of the latter destination among American tourists, the U.S. Embassy also issued alerts advising against entering the water or walking on the beach and urging travelers to heed the warnings of local authorities. Farther north, Tropical Storm Rachel was expected to reach Baja California, northwestern Mexico and Southern California this weekend. It had 95 kph (60 mph) winds and was forecast to weaken, though it may bring heavy rain to the area. Tropical storm activity has been above average this season in the Pacific, due to the effects of a strong El Niño.

Europe's hottest summer caused record heat stress: Monitor - A record 52% of Europe was exposed to intense heat stress during the exceptionally hot summer that seared the continent this year, the EU's climate monitor said Friday. Fueled by climate change, the world's fastest-warming continent endured a relentless series of heat waves that began unusually early in the spring, shattering temperature records and causing tens of thousands of excess deaths. "One of the things that stands out for 2026 is that the heat was not only remarkable for its intensity, but also for its geographical extent," said Samantha Burgess, climate lead at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which operates Copernicus. It was the continent's third-warmest summer on record and the hottest for western Europe, with several countries reporting all-time temperature highs. Four of Europe's top 10 heat waves occurred this past summer alone, Burgess said in a media briefing, with August 2003 still ranking as the most severe ever recorded. This left 52% of Europe exposed to "very strong" heat stress—when temperatures feel hotter than 38°C (100°F)—according to Copernicus. Around 80% of the continent experienced "strong" heat stress, or feels-like temperatures of more than 32°C (90°F), which occurred on a record 41 days by the end of the season. Heat stress occurs when the body's natural cooling systems are overwhelmed, causing symptoms ranging from dizziness and headaches to organ failure and death. "Summer 2026 demonstrated how heat stress is becoming both more widespread and more persistent," Burgess said, noting that it was the leading cause of weather-related mortality globally. The summer was also marked by dry conditions that led to the lowest river flows since records began in 1992, disrupting freight transport and putting pressure on irrigation, nuclear reactor cooling and hydropower, according to Copernicus. Drought conditions have been increasing over the last 45 years in Europe. By the end of August, drought affected almost half of Europe, Burgess said. "That's one of the defining characteristics of summer this year, that it was not a single record. It was the way that multiple records appeared together across the climate system," Burgess said.

'Catastrophic': Swiss glaciers lose a fifth of mass in five years - Switzerland's glaciers, which are disproportionately impacted by climate change, have lost nearly 20% of their mass in five years, experts said Thursday, with 2026 registering the second-biggest melt on record. Swiss glaciers saw 5.5% of their volume melt away this year, the Glacier Monitoring in Switzerland(GLAMOS) network found in a new study, published after a record-hot summer preceded by a winter with little snowfall. "The glaciers this year have lost enormous quantities of ice," said GLAMOS chief Matthias Huss, describing 2026 as "a catastrophic year." Perched on the Scex Rouge glacier, at an altitude of nearly 3,000 meters (9,800 feet), he gazed across the landscape in despair. "This is a glacier that isn't surviving," he said. "There will be probably no ice in 10 or maybe 15 years." He carefully dismantled the four-meter-long (13-foot-long) aluminum measurement stake inserted at the center of the glacier. In late July, when it was installed, it was completely embedded, but now more than three meters (10 feet) protrude from the gray surface of the ice. "It's not that we are surprised, because we know how fast the glaciers are melting," Huss said. "But to see the colors of the mountains where there is no snow left, there is just these rocks and these dark glaciers that are a relic from the past ... it's just incredible." Between 2022 and 2026, the melt rate at Switzerland's glaciers was "more than twice as high as in any previously monitored five-year period," the GLAMOS report said, noting an ice volume loss of almost 20% since 2021. While Switzerland's glaciers have long been shrinking, the melt has recently sped up dramatically. While 10% of Swiss ice volume disappeared between 1990 and 2000, 27% was lost in the past 10 years, the report showed. GLAMOS based its findings on extensive measurements at 23 reference glaciers in September, which it extrapolated to the nearly 1,300 glacial formations still found in Switzerland. Switzerland's glaciers have lost a fifth of their mass in the last 20 years. The report comes after a summer when June, July and August were each the hottest on record for those months in Switzerland since measurements began in 1864, according to the Swiss Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology. This year, the protective snow cover on the glaciers had already partially disappeared during the June heat waves and had completely disappeared by September, even at high altitudes, GLAMOS said. "Alpine glaciers have no chance of surviving in the long term under such conditions," GLAMOS said in a statement. Due to significant melting this year, the researchers even had to reposition measurement stakes—including on the highest-altitude glaciers—farther up after the ice melted away in the original locations. The average ice thickness of some glaciers decreased by 2.5 to 4.0 meters (8 to 13 feet), while the more exposed glacier tongues saw losses of up to 10 meters (33 feet) of thickness over the summer.

October heat records reported across southern China after temperatures reach 39.5°C (103.1°F) - Late-season heat affected southern China from September 25 into early October 2026, with official reports placing temperatures at 39.5°C (103.1°F) in Qiaojia, Yunnan, 39.1°C (102.4°F) in Yongding, Fujian, and 38°C (100.4°F) in Guangxin, Jiangxi. An independent analysis of station data identified 62 October maximum-temperature records on October 1 and another 18 on October 2, although Chinese meteorological authorities have not published an equivalent record count. China Weather said widespread hot and humid conditions affected Jiangnan and southern China from September 25 to 30 under the influence of the western Pacific subtropical high. Zhejiang, Fujian, Jiangxi, southeastern Hunan, northern Guangxi and central and eastern Guangdong experienced four to five high-temperature days. Some areas reached 37–38°C (98.6–100.4°F). The Menggu station in Qiaojia County, Yunnan reached 39.5°C (103.1°F) during the 24 hours preceding 10:01 LT (02:01 UTC) on September 30. The Yongding District Meteorological Observatory in Fujian reported temperatures above 37°C (98.6°F) in several communities during the 24 hours preceding 15:55 LT (07:55 UTC) on September 30. Xianshi recorded the district’s highest temperature at 39.1°C (102.4°F). Jiangxi’s Climate Center reported that Guangxin reached 38.0°C (100.4°F) on September 28 during a provincial heat episode from September 25 to 29. Jiangxi’s average temperature from September 1 to 29 was 26.4°C (79.5°F), or 1.4°C (2.5°F) above normal. An independent analysis compiling station observations reported that 19 stations set or tied late-September maximum-temperature records on September 30. Two reportedly reached or tied their records for the entire month of September, while eight set or tied September records for their highest daily minimum temperatures. The same analysis identified a larger concentration of records on October 1, when 62 stations reportedly set or tied their highest October maximum temperatures and 49 set or tied records for their warmest October daily minimum temperatures. On October 2, the analyst reported that 18 stations broke October maximum-temperature records and 19 broke records for the highest October daily minimum. Yuanyang, Yunnan, reportedly reached 39.4°C (102.9°F), which the analyst described as a provincial October record. National Meteorological Center observation archives also showed exceptionally high temperatures continuing in southern Yunnan into early October.

As the planet warms, cities like Bangkok could be increasingly inundated by deadly floods - In the humid tropics of Southeast Asia, afternoon thunderstorms roll through almost every day. Daytime heat causes towering, fluffy cumulonimbus clouds to form and swell before unleashing torrential rain on cities such as Singapore, Hong Kong and Bangkok. In these places, drainage systems are designed to cope with short, heavy downpours.But the rains in Bangkok over the last week were far from typical.September is the wettest month in Thailand's bustling capital, with a monthly average of 344 millimeters (13.5 inches) usually spread across 18 rainy days. But just last week, roughly 300 mm (11.8 inches) of rain fell in Bangkok over 48 hours, overwhelming the city's drainage systems. This extraordinary volume of water prompted authorities to declare a citywide disaster zone. As stagnant, brown water has inundated the city, at least 31 people have died and thousands have been forced to evacuate.  Weather maps of the stalled low pressure system that caused the Bangkok floods. This sudden and extreme downpour was caused by a low-pressure system that stayed over the Bangkok region for about three days. In a low-pressure system, air rises and moisture in the air condenses to form clouds and rain. If a low-pressure system stalls, it can dump rain over the same location for days, leading to severe flooding.In the nearby Gulf of Thailand, sea surface temperatures are sitting close to 30°C (86°F), several degrees above the local average. These warm conditions provide ample moisture and energy for the storm to persist.Thailand is no stranger to flooding. In 2011, more than 800 people died when high rainfall, multiple tropical storms, high sea levels and an early start to the monsoon season collided. This triggered widespread flooding that lasted months. World Bank figures show these floods caused an estimated US$46.5 billion in damage, with the local manufacturing industry hardest hit. Bangkok sits on a floodplain near the mouth of the Chao Phraya River, which drains into the Gulf of Thailand. The city is largely flat, without the natural topography to slow or redirect vast volumes of water.Bangkok has also been sinking for decades. Extensive groundwater extraction in the mid-20th century caused the ground beneath Bangkok to progressively sink, dropping by more than 10 centimeters (3.9 inches) in 1988 alone. Policy changes, such as groundwater pricing and extensive monitoring, have reduced this rate of sinking to 2–3 cm per year (0.8–1.2 inches per year). But as sea levels rise, this sinking coastal city is less able to drain floodwater into the Gulf of Thailand, heightening the risk of prolonged floods. Bangkok is also rapidly becoming more urban, characterized by high-rises and a booming population. Concrete is replacing spongy soils across much of the city, meaning the ground absorbs less water when it rains. The past 30 years of urbanization in Bangkok have increased surface water runoff by 25% during bouts of extreme rainfall.  It's too early to know the exact effect of climate change on this specific rainfall event. However, the fingerprint of climate change is detectable in global extreme rainfall trends.In Bangkok, research suggests extremely rainy days are getting even wetter, with rainfall on the heaviest rainfall day of the year increasing by 6–12 mm (0.2–0.5 inches) every decade. Another study of the 2011 flood identified a strong increasing trend in premonsoon rainfall across Thailand. Most of Thailand's rain falls in the monsoon months of May to October. This could prime the soils for flooding even before the heaviest rain occurs.The atmosphere is able to hold more water as global temperatures rise, meaning future rainfall will likely be more intense than if humans weren't warming the planet. Worryingly, Earth's atmospheric water vapor reached a record high in August.

Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories cover much of California as October heat wave persists - Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories covered a broad section of California on October 5, 2026, as potentially record-breaking early-October heat persisted from Southern California to the Bay Area, Central Valley and northern interior. Forecast highs reached 41°C (106°F) in inland Los Angeles and Ventura counties and 43°C (110°F) in Death Valley, while unusually warm nights limited relief. Most alerts remained in effect through October 7 or 8, with the Death Valley warning continuing through October 9. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) said abnormally hot, potentially record-breaking temperatures would continue across Southern California and extend north toward the Bay Area and Central Valley during the week. Local National Weather Service (NWS) forecast offices attributed the prolonged heat to strong high pressure over the western United States and anomalously high mid-level heights. Weak upper-level disturbances were expected to provide little immediate relief, while offshore or weak onshore flow limited cooling from the Pacific in many coastal and valley areas. Temperatures were forecast to remain 6–14°C (10–25°F) above average in parts of California through midweek. A stronger Pacific trough and increasing onshore flow were expected to bring more widespread cooling from late in the week into the weekend, although the timing and magnitude of the change varied by region. NWS offices warned that prolonged daytime heat and limited overnight cooling would increase the risk of heat-related illness. Residents were advised to drink fluids, use air-conditioned spaces, reduce strenuous outdoor activity during the hottest hours, check on vulnerable people, and never leave children or pets in unattended vehicles. NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard maintained an Extreme Heat Warning for the coasts and valleys of Los Angeles and Ventura counties, the Santa Clarita Valley, the Santa Monica Mountains, the southwestern and southeastern Santa Barbara County coasts, the county’s interior mountains, the Santa Ynez Mountains, the Cuyama Valley, and Catalina, Santa Barbara, Santa Cruz and Anacapa islands. The product was issued at 11:04 PDT (18:04 UTC) on October 4 and remained valid until 20:00 PDT on October 8 (03:00 UTC on October 9). Temperatures were forecast to reach 32–38°C (90–100°F) along the Los Angeles and Ventura County coasts and up to 41°C (106°F) in the valleys. Santa Barbara County coastal areas could reach 29°C (85°F), while the interior mountains and Cuyama Valley could reach 38°C (100°F). The same office maintained a Heat Advisory for the San Luis Obispo County inland coast, mountains and valleys, the southern Salinas Valley, the Santa Barbara County inland central coast and the Santa Ynez Valley through 20:00 PDT on October 8. A separate advisory for the San Luis Obispo County beaches and Santa Barbara County central coast beaches was scheduled from 10:00 PDT (17:00 UTC) on October 7 until 20:00 PDT on October 8. Temperatures of 27–35°C (80–95°F) were forecast in those coastal areas, while inland advisory areas could reach 39°C (103°F). NWS San Diego continued an Extreme Heat Warning for Orange County coastal and inland areas, San Diego County coastal areas and valleys, the San Bernardino and Riverside County valleys, and the Santa Ana Mountains and foothills. The warning update was issued at 03:19 PDT (10:19 UTC) on October 5 and remained in effect until 20:00 PDT on October 8 (03:00 UTC on October 9). Forecast highs ranged from about 29–34°C (mid-80s to lower 90s°F) at the beaches to 35–41°C (mid-90s to 105°F) across higher coastal terrain, inland Orange County, the Inland Empire and San Diego County valleys. Overnight lows were expected to remain near 20–24°C (upper 60s to mid-70s°F), with widespread Major to locally Extreme Heat Risk continuing across coastal areas and western valleys. The office expected only slight coastal cooling through midweek. Valley and inland coastal temperatures were forecast to remain approximately 8–11°C (15–20°F) above average on October 7 before a more substantial cooling trend began on October 9. NWS Las Vegas maintained an Extreme Heat Warning for elevations below 610 m (2 000 feet) in Death Valley National Park, including Furnace Creek, Stovepipe Wells and Shoshone. The update was issued at 02:46 PDT (09:46 UTC) on October 5 and remained valid until 20:00 PDT on October 9 (03:00 UTC on October 10). Highs near 43°C (110°F) and overnight lows around 29°C (85°F) were forecast, producing a Major to Extreme Heat Risk.

Evacuation orders remain near Santa Clarita after Bouquet Fire burns 424 ha (1 048 acres) in Los Angeles County, California -  (4 videos) Evacuation orders remained in effect northeast of Santa Clarita early on October 5, 2026, after the Bouquet Fire burned 424 ha (1 048 acres) in the Angeles National Forest and reached 48% containment late on October 4. The U.S. Forest Service reported the fire’s discovery at approximately 14:16 LT on October 3 near Bouquet Canyon Road, south of Bouquet Reservoir. At 15:28 LT, the fire was estimated at 8 ha (20 acres) and spreading at a moderate rate. Three minutes later, officials reported that structures and power lines were threatened. The estimated burned area increased to 40 ha (100 acres) by 15:59 LT, and Air Attack reported a rapid rate of spread at 16:17 LT. By 16:50 LT, aerial mapping placed the fire at 287 ha (709.7 acres), with crews working on two spot fires near the main fire. It reached 341 ha (843 acres) at 17:43 LT and approximately 405 ha (1 000 acres) at 18:55 LT, an increase of about 397 ha (980 acres) in less than 3.5 hours from the first official size estimate. An afternoon wind shift pushed the fire toward structures along Bouquet Canyon Road, prompting requests for structure protection and evacuation orders. Air Attack reported a possible drone sighting at 16:45 LT, and fixed-wing aircraft were released at 18:02 LT because of poor visibility. CAL FIRE said all aircraft had departed for the night by 01:21 LT on October 4. The fire was mapped at 424 ha (1 048 acres) late on October 3 and was 40% contained by the morning of October 4. Activity increased again around midday, producing more visible smoke, while air tankers and helicopters operating from Fox Field supported suppression efforts. By the evening of October 4, crews had made progress along the southern part of the perimeter, where most of the day’s fire activity was concentrated near Bouquet Canyon Road. The fire remained at 424 ha (1 048 acres), while containment increased to 48% at 20:59 LT. The fire was burning through chaparral and grass in steep terrain with limited access. Angeles National Forest firefighters and the Los Angeles County Fire Department were involved in the response. As of early October 5, evacuation orders remained in effect for zones LAC-E018, LAC-E030-B and LAC-E031-A. Evacuation warnings covered LAC-E016, LAC-E017, LAC-E019, LAC-E020, LAC-E021, LAC-E029, LAC-E030-A, LAC-E030-C and LAC-E031-B. A shelter remained available at the Ryan M. Clinkunbroomer Castaic Sports Complex, 31230 Castaic Road, Castaic, with small pets accepted. Bouquet Canyon Road was closed between Spunky Canyon Road and Vasquez Canyon Road. The Forest Service also temporarily closed the Rowher Flat and Drinkwater off-highway vehicle areas for public safety. Forest Service spokesperson John Miller estimated that approximately 30–60 people in the remote canyon, which contains several small cabins and residences, were directly affected by the fire and evacuation orders. Aircraft kept the flames away from the cabins during increased activity on October 4, he said. The fire developed during an extreme early-October heat wave. The National Weather Service (NWS) forecast highs of 35–42°C (95–107°F), minimum relative humidity of 10–20% and northeast-to-southeast winds of 16–32 km/h (10–20 mph), with gusts of 32–48 km/h (20–30 mph), across favored parts of Los Angeles and Ventura counties through October 5. Although the generally lighter winds made Red Flag Warnings unlikely, NWS warned of elevated to briefly critical fire-weather conditions and a high risk of plume-dominated and fast-moving fires. An Extreme Heat Warning covering the Santa Clarita Valley remained in effect through 20:00 LT on October 8, with valley temperatures forecast to reach 41°C (106°F). A wildfire-smoke advisory was in effect from 20:00 LT on October 3 through 20:00 LT on October 4 for the Santa Clarita Valley, the Interstate 5 corridor and the Angeles National Forest.

Richer people have an edge when it comes to getting national park permits -Many outdoor enthusiasts have spent hours in front of a computer, racing to reserve a campsite, backpacking permit or national park entrance ticket. A recent study suggests that the way these reservation systems are designed can favor higher-income visitors. In a paper published in Nature Communications, CU Boulder economist Jonathan Hughes found that people from higher-income neighborhoods in the United States are more likely to successfully secure the most competitive permits, including timed-entry reservations for Rocky Mountain National Park. The park ends its timed-entry permit system for the season on Oct. 18. "The parks are trying to come up with ways to manage finite resources," said Hughes, a professor in the Department of Economics and a fellow at the Renewable and Sustainable Energy Institute (RASEI). "But if you look at the founding document of the Yellowstone National Park, our first national park, it is to be 'set apart as a public park ... for the benefit and enjoyment of the people,' not just rich people." National parks in the United States have seen steady increases in visitors since around 2013, with the COVID-19 pandemic pushing visitation even higher in recent years. In 2024, more than 331 million people visited national parks. Crowds can put pressure on park infrastructure, affect the ecosystem and make emergency response more difficult. In response, many parks have introduced online reservation systems for parking, popular trails and entering the park at certain times. For example, during peak hours from mid-May to mid-October, Rocky Mountain National Park requires visitors to obtain a permit for $2 in addition to the entrance pass to enter the park during a specific time window. The park releases some permits on the first day of each month for the rest of that month, while another batch of permits becomes available the evening before each entry date. Hughes has navigated many of these reservation systems himself over the years. He recalls coming to campus early to take advantage of the faster Wi-Fi connection and using two computers to give himself the best chance of securing a permit. "It made me think about who has the ability to participate in such a process. Not everyone can plan months ahead, is comfortable with technology or has access to a fast internet connection," he said. Hughes has previously studied the river permit system in the American West, which allows visitors to boat and fish through a combination of lotteries and an advance reservation system. He found that people who managed to secure a permit through advance reservation tend to have higher incomes than those who got the permit through the lottery. He wondered if reservation systems at national parks show a similar bias. Hughes examined 11 reservation systems covering more than 5 million reservations at seven national parks, including Rocky Mountain National Park, Glacier National Park and Yosemite National Park. By tracking the ZIP codes associated with reservations, he found that among systems that offered advance reservations, visitors who secured permits weeks or months ahead tended to come from higher-income areas than those who obtained permits the same day or a day in advance. Particularly for highly competitive permits, where most tickets sell out within five minutes after they become available, successful reservation holders came from ZIP codes with median household incomes about 3% to 6% higher than those associated with less competitive reservations. Hughes said this could be because higher-income visitors have more flexibility to plan trips months in advance, are more familiar with the reservation system and tend to be more tech-savvy. As parks continue to adjust their reservation systems, Hughes said the findings could help managers consider different ways of distributing permits. For example, parks could experiment with how many permits are released months in advance versus closer to the visit date. In some cases, random lotteries may provide a more equitable alternative. "For many years, the people responsible for stewarding our public lands have worked to give everyone equal access," Hughes said. "Income is just one indicator. Education, age and race could also play a role. Any indication that some people have better access than others runs counter to that goal."

Antarctica's ice loss is locked in, and extra snowfall won't save it—low‑lying coastal areas elsewhere to suffer -- Sea-level rise is one of the most visible signs of climate change, one that is threatening low-lying coastal communities around the world. Today, about 1 billion people live in coastal areas; about 100 million live within 1 meter (3.3 feet) of sea level, highly exposed to coastal flooding.Over the long term, when it comes to future sea-level rise, one place matters more than any other: Antarctica.The frozen continent holds enough ice to raise global sea level by about 190 feet (58 meters). Yet scientists have disagreed on a fundamental question: Will Antarctica gain more ice than it loses this century or lose more ice than it gains?In a new study published in the scientific journal Nature Geoscience, we looked at hundreds of thousands of potential futures and the impact of each on the ice sheet.We found that Antarctica's ice loss this century is locked in—even if the world limits global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit), the 2015 international Paris climate agreement's most ambitious goal. The Antarctic ice sheet's future depends on a chain of events. Greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles, coal- and natural gas–fueled power plants and other sources around the world determine how much the ocean and air around Antarctica warm. That warming shapes how ice shelves around the continent's margins melt and how quickly the glaciers behind them slide over the bedrock. When those ice shelves thin or collapse, studies show the glacier flow speeds up. Each step relies on assumptions that scientists have yet to agree on, such as how ice shelves collapse. Different assumptions give different answers, and because each step feeds the next, the differences grow—what scientists call cascading uncertainty. As a result, research teams around the world can't agree on whether Antarctica will gain or lose ice this century.Snow is part of the puzzle. Warmer air holds more moisture, so as temperatures rise, more snow will likely fall on Antarctica. In some projections, that extra snow outweighs the ice lost to the warming ocean, and the ice sheet actually grows.A big reason for this persistent disagreement involves the cost of computing.Each ice-sheet simulation runs with just one set of assumptions for every step in the chain, from how much greenhouse gas we emit to how the ice behaves. One run can keep a supercomputer busy for days, so no team can test every plausible combination.Our team of data scientists, glaciologists and oceanographers took a shortcut. An international project called the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project, or ISMIP6, has built a large archive of Antarctic simulations showing how the ice responds under different circumstances. We trained a physics-informed machine learning model on that archive to learn how each simulation's outcome depends on its physical assumptions, such as how easily ice slides over bedrock. The machine learning model does in a fraction of a second what took the original models days, predicting sea-level change with similar accuracy.What different types of models help scientists understand about ice melt, and how they are connected to help predict the Antarctic ice sheet's future. On the left, how greenhouse gas emissions change the climate, including sea ice, ocean and atmospheric dynamics, which influence one another and levels of global warming. On the right, what goes into an ice sheet model, including ice shelf melt and collapse and how the ice slides. Every stage adds uncertainty. Credit: Yucheng LinThat speed let us run millions of combinations and check hundreds of thousands of possible futures against data from satellites that weigh the ice sheet from space by sensing tiny changes in Earth's gravity. Only scenarios that were able to match what the satellites have seen since 2002 made the cut.The scenarios that did make the cut point in one direction: Antarctica will lose more ice than it gains this century, even if humanity is able to limit global warming to 1.5 C.That means Antarctica will contribute more to sea-level rise that's already being driven by melting of the Greenland ice sheet and mountain glaciers and by warming ocean temperatures that cause water to expand.The biggest lessons from our study are that greenhouse gas emissions matter and extra snowfall won't save Antarctica. Every ton of greenhouse gas that humans can avoid releasing today reduces how much ice Antarctica loses this century, and the benefit—slower and less sea-level rise—lasts for hundreds of years.In a scenario with very high emissions, our results show a potentially faster domino effect. A fast-warming ocean thins the ice shelves, weakened shelves break apart, and glacier ice flows into the ocean faster. Each step makes the next one easier. Together, these steps could add up to 10 inches (25 centimeters) of sea-level rise from Antarctica alone by 2100—enough to permanently flood the homes of more than 10 million people.

The Soviets landed on Venus... what their probe found was worse than anyone expected | Watch (video) For decades Venus hid its surface beneath an impenetrable blanket of clouds, leaving scientists to wonder whether Earth’s neighbor could be a warm tropical world. Soviet probes eventually revealed something far more brutal: temperatures around 475°C, atmospheric pressure roughly 92 times Earth’s and sulfuric acid in the lower atmosphere. One early probe transmitted for 90 minutes before going silent and was believed to have been crushed by the immense pressure. Yet the Soviets kept building tougher spacecraft and sending them back.

Massive 7.7 earthquake rocks Panama: Everything we know - The United States Geological Survey (USGS) estimated a 7.7 magnitude earthquake struck near Pitaloza Arriba, Panama, on Friday. Earlier estimates placed the magnitude between 7.6 and 8 and the agency estimated the depth at around 12.6 kilometers. The National Weather Service Tsunami Warning Center issued a warning for Panama, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Peru, Nicaragua, Guatemala, El Salvador and Mexico following the quake. As of 9:10 p.m. ET Friday, there were no tsunami warnings, watches advisories or threats. The National Weather Service said tsunamis were “NOT expected” to hit the United States after initially alerting the public that they were possible along the West Coast. Tremors were felt in Panama City, the country’s largest city and capital. Panama lies along the Ring of Fire, a horseshoe-shaped zone of intense tectonic activity stretching from the Americas to Asia. The Panama Canal and Cobre Panama copper mine have both reported normal operations, Reuters reports. Tocumen International Airport said, “Little by little, operations are returning to normal,” in a post on X in part Friday evening. Panama’s Civil Protection said Friday it was investigating potential damage near the earthquake’s epicenter. The United States Embassy in Panama City said in a post on X it is “closely monitoring” the aftermath of the earthquake. “The U.S. Embassy is assessing potential damage and accounting for the welfare and whereabouts of visitors and personnel,” the embassy wrote. Diego Melgar Moctezuma, professor of earth sciences at the University of Oregon, told Newsweek that an earthquake of this magnitude is “capable of severe damage near the rupture, particularly to vulnerable buildings.” “Damage depends on depth, distance, local soils and construction quality. It is comparable in magnitude to the destructive 1991 Costa Rica earthquake, though that does not mean comparable damage,” he said. Aftershocks are a major concern because they can damage buildings that have already been weakened, he said. “Landslides and disruptions to roads, power and water can also complicate rescue and recovery. People should avoid damaged structures and follow local emergency guidance,” he said. USGS seismologist Paul Earle told Newsweek this region does have large earthquakes, though they are generally more common a bit to the west. “In 1934, there was a magnitude 7.5 event to the west and a magnitude 7.2 in 1962. It’s a complex region, tectonically,” he said. “There’s a number of large plates that interact in this region.” The immediate risks from an earthquake of this magnitude are fatalities from building failures, he said. “The longer term impact is going to be on the economic losses from this earthquake, from damaged buildings and structures,” he said. “From an earthquake this large, there can be considerable disruptions that can take months, and effects can last potentially years.” Details about injuries and the extent of damage remained unclear Friday night.

Panama struck by 2 powerful earthquakes, U.S. Geological Survey says - CBS News - A powerful magnitude 7.7 earthquake struck near Panama's southern tip on Friday morning, shaking buildings more than 100 miles away in the capital and prompting evacuations, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. A second powerful 6.6 magnitude earthquake struck the country later in the day following a series of aftershocks. The initial quake was centered about 7 miles southwest of the remote community of Pitaloza Arriba and struck at a depth of about 7 miles, the USGS said. The 6.6 magnitude quake came about two and a half hours later, with its epicenter about 8 miles west of Río Grande on Panama's Pacific coast and a depth of about 6 miles. Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino said authorities had not documented anyone killed or injured as of Friday evening, though he cautioned that could change in the coming hours or days. "Nobody was ready, and no one is ever ready for this type of disaster," Mulino said. The U.S. Pacific Tsunami Warning Center had initially warned about the possibility of tsunami waves hitting Panama's coast, but later said the threat had passed. Tremors were felt in Panama City, where buildings shook and people evacuated into the streets. Visibly shaken residents gathered outside as they waited for news. "We felt it very strongly. It knocked things over in the kitchen, but we're OK, though we're very scared," Rosendo Domínguez, 60, who is from Herrera province, where the earthquake struck, told The Associated Press by phone. "Everyone is outside, scared." Multiple aftershocks continued to rattle Panama, including several measuring magnitude 5.8, 5.5 and 5.2. Seismologists at the University of Panama recorded more than 45 aftershocks, though many were too weak to be felt. Images of crumbling buildings and deep fissures slicing through roads added to fears across a region battered by a series of devastating earthquakes in recent months. Two back-to-back 7.2 and 7.5 magnitude earthquakes roiled Venezuela's La Guaira state in June, killing more than 6,500 people and leaving 17,000 homeless. In August, a 7.4 magnitude earthquake in Colombia killed at least 289 people. Mulino called for calm earlier Friday, writing on social media: "What happened should not be used to cause alarm or disorder." Omar Smith of the National Civil Protection Service said on the Telemetro Reporta news channel that damage was concentrated in the central provinces of Veraguas, Herrera and Los Santos. He said there were no reports of damage in the capital, which is known for its hundreds of skyscrapers. Smith said several injuries have been reported, including one person struck by debris from a partially collapsed structure in the city of Penonomé, around 93 miles from the capital. He confirmed a partial collapse and cracks at the cathedral in the district's main square, as well as damage in the governor's office building and the Dos Continentes hotel. Local news outlets also reported that the Church of San Atanasio, a colonial-style Catholic church in Panama's Los Santos province, had collapsed. The church was declared a National Historic Heritage Site in 1938. Elsewhere, including in Veraguas province, large fissures ran along roadways. Tocumen International Airport in Panama City, one of the region's busiest airports with more than 20 million passengers in 2025, temporarily suspended operations after the first quake but said Friday afternoon that it was reopening. The Panama Canal Authority said operations were continuing normally along the key global trade route. It said its priority was the safety of employees, vessels and crews and that specialized technical teams were inspecting facilities for possible damage. The last major earthquake to cause widespread damage in Panama struck in 1991. A magnitude 7.4 quake centered in nearby Costa Rica killed 23 people, injured 559, and left thousands of people homeless in the border Bocas del Toro region. Earthquakes are common, especially along Panama's border with Costa Rica and its Pacific coast, because of the interaction of several tectonic plates, including Cocos, Nazca and Caribbean plates. Panama lies along the "Ring of Fire," a 25,000-mile arc of volcanoes and fault lines around the Pacific Basin, where most of the world's earthquakes occur.

Supreme Court Weighs Boulder Climate Suit; Shale’s Future at Stake  - Marcellus Drilling News - - Yesterday was the first Monday in October, which means the U.S. Supreme Court opened a new term. The very first case the justices heard may be the most important case for the oil and gas industry, including Marcellus/Utica drillers, in a generation. The case is Suncor Energy v. County Commissioners of Boulder County. It asks whether a city or county can haul energy companies into its own state court and make them pay for the costs of climate change. If the answer is yes, Chief Justice John Roberts predicted a copycat lawsuit from “a municipality in every single state.” That’s not a scare tactic. It’s a business plan for trial lawyers.

Voters Will Soon Decide the Fate of America's Trillion Dollar AI Buildout - Today we’re publishing The Geography of Compute, our report on where companies are building data centers in the US and why. Today’s story comes from the report’s final section, on the 2026 midterms. If you’re interested in the full report, reach out to learn more about Cleanview’s research subscription. If you’re a journalist, contact us here.  Data centers have become one of the biggest issues of the 2026 midterms. Since January, campaigns and outside groups have spent more than $45 million on ads that mention data centers, according to an NPR analysis of AdImpact data. In Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown is running ads that call Republican Sen. Jon Husted “the face of data centers in Ohio.” In Michigan, Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers backs a one-year moratorium on new data centers. In Texas, both Senate candidates want to end the state’s sales tax break for data centers. But the near-term future of data centers in America won’t be determined by Congressional midterm elections. Instead, the fate of America’s AI buildout depends on races further down the ballot.President Trump has made his support for data centers clear. Last month he wrote that towns fighting data centers are choosing to be “backwards and poor.” When Texas’ Governor, Greg Abbott, paused data center approvals in August, Trump called the decision “a mistake.” The President’s support and veto power would make it difficult for Congress to pass any meaningful legislation that regulates data center development.At the state level, the picture is very different. Governors and state legislators have significant power to block, slow, or otherwise regulate data center development. They can pass moratoriums, strip tax breaks, appoint new utility regulators, and require more stringent environmental and labor standards.In our latest report, we found that ten close governor’s races will set the rules for 67.4 GW of planned data centers. That’s more than the 62.7 GW of data centers operating in the entire US today. We estimate that this represents more than $2 trillion of potential AI infrastructure investment.None of these projects have started construction yet, which means the next governor could still decide whether, and on what terms, they get built.No state with a close governor’s race has more planned data center capacity than Ohio. Developers have announced 21.9 GW of data centers there that haven’t yet broken ground. The Columbus area is already one of the fastest-growing data center markets in the country.Both candidates for governor say they’d slow that growth down. Republican Vivek Ramaswamy says that on his first day in office, he would “immediately halt the approval of any new data center projects” until his data center law passes. Under his plan, data centers would have to give nearby residents free electricity or compensation and pay full property taxes. Democrat Amy Acton backs a moratorium until data centers pay 100% of their utility costs, among other conditions.The current governor, Mike DeWine, has already paused new data center tax exemptions.No race in the country has seen more spending on ads that mention data centers than Georgia’s race for governor where candidates have spent $12.8 million, according to NPR. Developers have announced 15.1 GW of data centers in Georgia that haven’t started construction.Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms wants a temporary statewide pause on new data center construction. “Let us take a pause, assess fully, assess comprehensively, assess the impact that these data centers are having on our environment, on our utility bills,” she said, according to the Georgia Recorder. Republican Rick Jackson wants to leave the decision to local officials. “Every community should decide,” he has said.OpenAI has more data center capacity at risk this fall than any other company. Most of the data centers OpenAI is building today are in Texas, which doesn’t have a close governor’s race. But its next wave is in the states that do. OpenAI has 14.1 GW planned in states with a close governor’s race, 84% of everything it has planned.  In Pike County, Ohio, SB Energy is building a 10 GW campus for OpenAI, one of the three largest data center projects we track. It sits partly on land owned by the Department of Energy, and the US government will own the 9.2 GW of gas generation built to power it. That could limit what a new governor can do.But the campus still depends on state approvals. SB Energy is paying $4.2 billion for new high-voltage lines through AEP Ohio, a utility overseen by regulators the governor appoints. The first 800 MW is expected online in 2028.  In Effingham County, Georgia, about 45 minutes outside Savannah, OpenAI is developing Project Camellia, a $20 billion, 3.2 GW campus. That project isn’t yet under construction. If Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms wins and follows through on her pause, the project could see significant delays. The Cook Political Report rates the election a toss up.Over the last few months, there has been a lot of talk about slowing down AI development and “pacing the frontier.” Many proposals laid out by labs and policymakers have focused on the speed at which models are released. Next month, voters may force a different kind of slowdown and pace the speed at which compute is built. The midterms are one part of The Geography of Compute. Here’s what’s inside the full report:

• Where data center construction is moving: the established markets that are still growing, and the nine new markets with more than 1 GW under construction each
• Who is building: hyperscalers, AI labs and neocloud developers, and the states they’re expanding into
• Why developers are going to remote places and siting projects near gas pipelines instead of the high-voltage grid
• The Senate and governor’s races, House districts and candidates’ proposals that could shape the next wave of projects
• Data center capacity by state, county, utility and balancing authority, and the 50 largest campuses in the US

If you’re interested in receiving the full report, reach out to learn more about Cleanview’s research subscription. If you’re a journalist, contact us here to get a copy.

Ohio Has Half of US Data Center Ballot Measures in Midterms - Data centers have emerged as a defining issue in the 2026 midterm elections, with Ohio accounting for more than half of the data center-related measures being considered by voters across the United States.According to Ballotpedia’s nationwide tracker, voters in eight states (Ohio, Illinois, Wisconsin, Kansas, California, Michigan, Nevada, and Florida) will decide on at least 39 local ballot measures related to data centers in 2026.Ohio alone accounts for 21 of those measures across 18 jurisdictions, more than half of the national total. Illinois has seven measures, while Wisconsin and Kansas each have three. California has two, while Michigan, Nevada and Florida each have one. 35 of the 39 measures are scheduled for the November 3 general election, while voters decided on the other four earlier in the year. In all four, the outcomes favored greater restrictions on data center development, either by approving new limits or rejecting proposals that would have supported development.In terms of Ohio, voters will consider proposals ranging from outright prohibitions on large data centers to zoning referendums, financial-guarantee requirements, and measures requiring public approval before developments can proceed.Several initiatives would prohibit facilities whose electricity demand exceeds 25 megawatts, the same threshold used in a proposed statewide constitutional amendment certified by the Ohio Ballot Board in April. The 21 Ohio measures identified by Ballotpedia are:

• Ashville: A referendum on whether to uphold a term summary guiding negotiations between the village and EdgeConneX over two data centers.
• Conneaut: A proposed prohibition on data centers with an aggregate monthly electricity demand or peak load over 25 megawatts.
• Defiance: A proposed prohibition on constructing data centers with an aggregate demand or peak load above 25 megawatts.
• Granville: A proposed prohibition on data center construction in general.
• Grove City: A measure requiring voter approval for certain developments involving at least 50 contiguous acres, more than 20 megawatts of peak electricity demand or more than 500,000 gallons of water per day.
• Hubbard: A proposed prohibition on data centers built within the city limits.
• Monroe (Adams County): An initiative establishing zoning regulations in unincorporated areas.
• Monroeville: An advisory measure asking whether officials should allow data center development within village limits.
• Oregon: A proposed prohibition on data centers exceeding 25 megawatts.
• Pataskala: A proposed prohibition on large-scale data centers.
• Perry: A requirement for hyperscale data center developers seeking special tax incentives to provide financial guarantees.
• Piqua: A proposed city charter amendment prohibiting data center construction.
• Sprigg (Adams County): An initiative establishing zoning regulations in unincorporated areas.
• Sunbury: A proposed prohibition on data centers with an aggregated monthly demand or peak electrical load that’s over 25 megawatts.
• Trenton: A proposed prohibition on large-scale data centers.
• Upper Sandusky: A proposed charter amendment prohibiting data center construction.
• Urbana: A proposed prohibition on data centers within the city limits.
• Wilmington, 1957 State Route 730: A referendum on whether to uphold the rezoning of 65.29 acres from rural residential to light industrial.
• Wilmington, McGuinn Road and State Route 730: Referendums involving the rezoning of separate properties from rural residential to light industrial. Ballotpedia counted these as separate ballot measures.
• Wilmington, U.S. Route 68 South: A referendum on whether to uphold the rezoning of approximately 170 acres from rural residential to light industrial.

The measures don’t all ask voters to reject data centers. Ashville’s referendum concerns development negotiations, Monroeville’s advisory question asks whether officials should permit development, and the Wilmington questions concern rezoning land for light-industrial use.

Urbana mayor reveals proposed settlement in $1B data center dispute -- Urbana Mayor Bill Bean broke months of silence on the city’s disputed $1 billion data center project, unveiling details of a proposed settlement that could net the city up to $50 million and end a massive federal lawsuit. “I know the silence has been frustrating, and I want to explain why we were not able to share details sooner and then walk you through what has been proposed,” he said in a message to residents. The city of Urbana and the developer of the proposed data center, Thor Equities, reached a potential settlement proposal following court-ordered mediation over a disputed $1 billion data center project at the corner of Ohio 55 and U.S. 68, adjacent to the Rittal facility called the Urbana Technology Hub. Thor Equities filed a federal lawsuit against Urbana, its city council, and its building and zoning appeals board after council members approved a 12-month moratorium on new data centers and repealed the zoning rules that allowed them in March. The case was sent to court-ordered mediation, with two sessions held in September that resulted in a proposal by Thor to be presented to Urbana City Council. The proposal outlines a framework for a potential resolution of the pending case in the United States District Court for the Southern District of Ohio. “Mediation of this kind is governed by federal law and court rules that require everything discussed, including any settlement proposals, to remain strictly confidential. That confidentiality exists for a good reason: it allows both sides to negotiate candidly, test options, and work toward the best possible outcome without each new idea becoming a bargaining chip,” Bean said. “Had we released partial details during that process, we risked undermining the city’s negotiating position and the integrity of the mediation itself. Additionally, premature disclosure would have exposed the city to contempt-of-court proceedings and judicial sanctions,” he continued. Although Bean said he believes this proposed settlement is a good deal, the project has sparked widespread backlash over the past few years from many residents and community members. They have raised many concerns and questions about the potential data canter, speaking out in packed government meetings about noise, water pollution, the facility’s proximity to a school, a long-term care facility and Cedar Bog Nature Preserve, as well as details related to the project itself. Bean said it was also important for council to get the full proposal before any of it reached the public so they could ask questions and fully understand what it was before anyone formed an opinion on an “incomplete picture.” Now that mediation has finished, both parties have agreed the terms of the proposal can be shared, according to Bean. He emphasized they have a proposed settlement, not a final deal or agreement, which will be memorialized in a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). Before anything is final, council must review, discuss and vote to approve the settlement agreement, and the federal court must also sign off on it as well. Bean said he “believes (the proposal) represents a good deal for our community” because it ends a costly legal fight on favorable terms, builds in protections for residents, and provides the city and Urbana schools with funding. In his message, Bean explained those three reasons in detail.

• Thor agreed to waive and release all of its damages claims against the city, which were estimated to exceed $115 million.
• In exchange, Thor would make direct payments to the city up to $50 million over the life of the project, with an initial payment upon the phase one building permit, followed by payments tied to each certificate of occupancy as the project is built out in phases.
• City council decides how that money is spent, on community improvement projects, emergency services and other city needs.
• Thor agreed not to seek a Community Reinvestment Area tax abatement, so the development would be fully taxed like any other property in Urbana, which would result in several more million additional dollars to the Urbana school district.

Before construction can begin, Thor must do the following:

• Pay for an independent environmental study, performed by a firm both the city and Thor agree on, to examine the project’s impact on the local environment, including Cedar Bog, and on water and sewer capacity.
• Subsidize any water and wastewater infrastructure upgrades needed to accommodate the project’s actual usage so existing ratepayers are not left to cover those costs.
• Put in place an emergency management plan addressing facility-specific response protocols and a decommissioning plan, including a future environmental study, with any necessary cleanup paid for by Thor, not the city.
• Maintain a public website about the project and provide residents a direct way to raise questions or concerns.
• Make a good-faith effort to hire local residents and local companies for construction and permanent positions.
• The project must still comply with the city’s zoning, subdivision and building standards, and go through site plan review. Any future increase to the development size beyond what has been proposed requires the written agreement of both Thor and city council.

Ohio board hears concerns over proposed New Albany data center power plant - — Environmental advocates are speaking out against a proposed fourth natural gas plant that could help power a Meta AI data center in New Albany’s International Business Park. The Ohio Power Siting Board heard community feedback as it reviews the proposal. Advocates say three other natural gas power plants already have been approved for the site and would consume more than 650 megawatts combined. Cathy Cowan Becker, an advocate against fracking, said Ohio is seeing rapid growth in both data centers and gas plants tied to them. “Ohio's the No. 5 state for data center buildout. And it's the number two state for gas plant build out of a power like specifically for a data center building, a major power plant,” Becker said. The project site spans 740 acres in New Albany’s International Business Park. Opponents say adding a fourth natural gas plant would increase pollution and rely heavily on agricultural resources. “Both greenhouse gas pollution, particulate matter, nitrous oxide, you know, all kinds of volatile organic chemicals,” Becker said. Becker, who said she lives across from a data center in Hilliard, said she has testified at two hearings so far. Matt Butler with the Ohio Utilities Commission said public engagement is an important part of the board’s review process for utility projects. “Review process really hasn't changed. Here at the board, we look at all types of utility projects. That includes power plants like this, but also solar farms, wind farms, natural gas pipelines, electric transmission lines. The process is essentially the same for the review of each type of project,” Butler said. Becker said the proposed plant would power one data center and called on Meta to use renewable energy instead. “At one time had 100% renewable energy goals and they have bought several power from several solar plants, but that was in the past. Just in this past year, they have moved to building out a lot of these gas plants. And not just in Ohio,” Becker said. “So what I would say to Meta is you should be using renewable energy for this.” Butler said the next step is for the board to conduct an adjudicatory hearing at its downtown Columbus location. A request for response from Meta had not been returned. The city of New Albany were contacted and chose not to comment, but shared a FAQ sheet of information for residents. A second public hearing is scheduled for Oct. 22.

ChatGPT’s hidden infrastructure is growing fast - and it comes with a huge power bill -TED video - AI may feel like software, but behind every prompt is a massive physical system of server racks, GPUs, cooling equipment, water, and electricity. Some AI data centers use as much power as 300,000 homes, and future facilities could become even larger as companies race to train more powerful models. Engineers are exploring liquid cooling, photonic chips, smaller specialized models, and even dedicated nuclear power to keep up with demand. The bigger question is how many resources society is willing to spend to make AI smarter.

Scioto Analysis releases cost-benefit analysis of data center policies in Ohio - This morning, Scioto Analysis published a cost-benefit analysis of policies to regulate data centers in Ohio. We estimate that between 2013 and 2026, Ohio data centers produced a net social benefit of $62 billion, mostly from creating 96,000 new jobs and generating $75 billion in wages. However, as development accelerates, we estimate that data centers under current regulations will produce only $2.4 billion in net benefits between 2027 and 2034, with benefits only slightly exceeding costs.If every planned data center project comes online by 2028, the number of data centers will increase by 50%, and their electricity use will more than triple. When data centers draw power from the statewide grid, electricity bills rise for Ohio ratepayers. We estimate that higher electricity prices will cost Ohio ratepayers $16 billion between 2027 and 2034. Because Ohio’s grid runs partly on natural gas and coal, data centers also produce substantial emissions. The largest costs come from air pollutants that harm local public health, which account for about $41 billion in costs between 2027 and 2034.To show how policymakers can shape the future of data centers, we evaluated five policy alternatives between 2027 and 2034:

• Under the status quo, data centers would produce a net present value of $2.4 billion, with a benefit-cost ratio of 1.04. Counties see most of their job gains from their first data centers, so additional data centers add few new benefits while adding substantial costs.
• A ban on data center construction would produce a net present value of $35 billion, with a benefit-cost ratio of 2.7. Most employment benefits from existing data centers would remain, while emissions and utility costs would fall.
• A behind-the-meter requirement with 90% natural gas and 10% renewables would produce a net present value of $35 billion and a benefit-cost ratio of 2.2.
• A behind-the-meter requirement with 50% natural gas and 50% renewables would produce a net present value of $39 billion and a benefit-cost ratio of 2.5.
• A behind-the-meter requirement with 10% natural gas and 90% renewables would produce a net present value of $43 billion and a benefit-cost ratio of 2.9.

We conducted 10,000 simulations of data centers in Ohio with different variables to test our model. The status quo is the most likely alternative to have costs that exceed its benefits, and a behind-the-meter requirement with 90% renewables is the only alternative with a positive net present value in at least 95% of trials.As data center development in Ohio continues to accelerate, policymakers have options to prevent costs from outpacing benefits. The full report can be accessed here.

A construction ban on data centers would be better for Ohio than the status quo, study says  - Given the amount of data center construction already in Ohio, the best economic deal going forward would be to require all new ones to use 90% renewable energy, a new cost-benefit analysis has found. The next-best deal would be to ban new construction altogether, it said. Ohio has the fourth-most data centers of any state, and after being forced to provide $2.3 billion in subsidies via tax breaks, taxpayers are questioning whether they’re really a good thing. The centers have  more than doubled the state’s electricity consumption, they generate noise and air pollution, the AI they generate is causing serious social harms, leaders of the big AI companies warn of possible calamities, and they’ve predicted that their machines will take millions of Americans’ jobs.  With these concerns in the background, the Columbus firm Scioto Analysis undertook a straight dollars-and-cents look at future data center development in Ohio. The Buckeye State ranks only behind Virginia, Texas and California in the number of data centers. And the gargantuan facilities are poised to move into rural parts of Ohio and other Midwestern states in a big way. “About 87% of current data centers in the United States are in urban areas, while 67% of planned data centers across the country are in rural areas, driven by the land and power requirements of modern hyperscale facilities,” the Scioto Analysis report said. “Data centers in the Midwest are expected to grow by the highest percentage: a projected 64% increase compared to current data centers. As of 2026, 38% of Americans live within five miles of at least one operational data center.” One criticism of data center economics is that while they create initial construction jobs, once completed they only require a skeleton staff to make sure the machines keep running. The Scioto Analysis study credits data center development with 96,000 new jobs and $62 billion in social benefits to Ohio since 2013, but it also asks what new benefits they’ll create going forward. A big factor in that is the huge electricity drain they’ll create and the social cost of all the pollution it will generate, the study notes. “If every planned project comes online by 2028, the number of data centers in Ohio will increase by half, their annual energy draw will more than triple, and their annual carbon emissions will more than triple,” the cost-benefit analysis says. “In 2026, Ohio data centers use enough electricity to power 5.7 million homes, which is more than the 5.4 million homes in Ohio. By 2028, we predict they will use enough electricity to power about 3.5 times as many homes as there are in Ohio.” Rob Moore, the principal of Scioto Analysis, said it’s important not to forget about the cost a business enterprise imposes on third parties — such as that which pollution imposes on the public. “While data centers present a new category of high-intensity energy use in the state, they still present the same problems as transportation, manufacturing or power generation in general: emissions that are not priced will lead to local air-quality issues, lung and heart conditions and higher levels of carbon emissions,” Moore said in a text message. He and his team looked at five scenarios and ran 10,000 simulations of what would happen between 2027 and 2034 with different variables. The values the analysis arrived at are expressed in terms of “benefit-cost ratio.” Maintaining the status quo scored 1.04, meaning benefits only slightly outweighed costs. Benefit-cost ratios for the other scenarios, in descending order of public benefit:

• Data center generates its own power, 10% gas, 90% renewable — 2.9
• Ban on new data center construction — 2.7
• Data center generates its own power, 50% gas, 50% renewable — 2.5
• Data center generates its own power, 90% natural gas, 10% renewable — 2.2

In other words, according to the analysis, forcing renewables to be used to generate power and an outright ban on new data center constructions would be the biggest improvement over what we’re doing now. “A ban on construction produces a higher net present value and benefit-cost ratio than the status quo,” the report said. “This is because most employment benefits from existing data centers remain, while the cost of higher electricity prices to ratepayers falls. “A behind-the-meter requirement with 90% natural gas produces about the same net present value, but a lower benefit-cost ratio. A behind-the-meter requirement with 90% renewables produces both the highest net present value and the highest benefit-cost ratio.” The analysis came with an important caveat, however. If data centers produce more jobs than expected, a ban or a heavy renewable requirement won’t look so good. “Our results depend heavily on our employment assumptions,” it said. “If we are overestimating how much data centers raise employment and earnings, even a ban or a 90% renewables requirement could have a negative net present value. If we are underestimating these effects, every alternative looks much better. Across our other tests, the status quo is the alternative most likely to have costs that exceed its benefits.”

Every household in this rural town will get $10,000 if a data center gets built -A Pennsylvania township is considering an unusual trade-off: If a sprawling data center project wins approval, every household would get $10,000. But for many residents, the potential payout has done little to ease worries about noise, home values, and the fast-growing presence of artificial intelligence as well as the facilities that power it. According to the Wall Street Journal, NorthPoint Development began sending letters in June saying Hazle Township households would each receive $10,000 if the company gets permission to build its proposed data center. The township includes roughly 4,500 households. The proposed data center is part of a larger plan for 15 buildings on 1,300 acres in the Pocono foothills. In a township where the median household income is about $60,000, payments of $10,000 could mean a lot to residents. Still, many said they remain against the project. "$10,000 doesn't match how much it's going to tank my property value," Jeff Fasnacht, a retired teacher whose home is near the proposed site, told the WSJ. Not everyone reacted the same way. Charlie Leshko, who worked as a maintenance man and lives just outside the eligible area, told the outlet, "$10,000 don't come along every day." Diana Spallone, a special education teacher, said, "$10,000 would be nice," but she also described the potential for data center construction to tank her home's value as her major concern. Developers often try to win local support by promising money for schools, fire departments, or other public infrastructure. Checks written directly to every household, however, could be seen as a much more forceful bid for support for the AI-related operations. Data centers serve as the backbone of cloud computing, streaming services, and AI. Residents say they are concerned about long stretches of construction, added noise, and the effect a large industrial development could have on the area's rural character and surrounding property values. Across Pennsylvania, server-farm projects have drawn both support and skepticism, with some communities profiting from land deals and others questioning whether short-term benefits are worth possible long-term costs. Elsewhere, communities facing data center construction have also worried about the potential strain on energy grids, water usage, and pollution. Last November, township officials rejected the data-center plan on zoning grounds, and NorthPoint later sued to try to reverse that decision. As it revises its zoning rules, the township has also temporarily halted new data center construction. NorthPoint says, meanwhile, that it is also offering broader community investments. Brent Miles, chief marketing officer at NorthPoint Development, said the company expects to provide another $120 million over 15 years, including funding for a police department. About the $10,000-per-household offers and potential community investments, Miles told the WSJ, "I think we've got something here that's on the cutting edge, really in direct response to 'what's in it for me?'" Retired homeowner Ed Negra said the offers made him more suspicious, not less. "I think it works the opposite way, because most people have the opinion that, 'hey, are they trying to bribe us here?'" he said.The debates playing out in Hazle Township are showing up elsewhere as AI data centers move into rural communities:

• • In Missouri, Nodaway County residents rallied against a proposed data center.
• • Gov. Greg Abbott said data centers must bring their own power and water to rural Texas.
• • Across unincorporated rural communities, developers are bypassing city limitations to pursue easier data center approvals.
• • In Endicott, New York, officials are considering a 12-month pause over water and energy fears.
• • In Kern County, California, the AI boom is pushing data centers into oil fields

NEPA Says No to $10K Checks: Data Centers Need Shale Playbook - - Marcellus Drilling News - Big Tech has a new problem, and it isn’t computer chips. It’s the neighbors. In Hazle Township (Luzerne County, PA), a data center developer offered $10,000 to every one of the town’s 4,500 households if they’d just let the project go forward. Most residents said “no thanks,” the township said no, and the developer is now suing. A week later, Amazon announced it will spend more than $1 billion over five years in communities that host its data centers, in an effort to cool a national backlash. Here’s why that matters to anyone who makes a living from Marcellus/Utica gas.

Developer Eyes 1-GW Gas Plant, Data Centers for Old U.S. Steel Dump -- Marcellus Drilling News - A developer from Bucks County wants to build a 1-gigawatt (GW) natural gas-fired power plant and up to 28 data center buildings on a former U.S. Steel landfill in Elizabeth Township, Allegheny County. If built, the plant would burn somewhere around 150 million cubic feet of Marcellus/Utica gas every day. That’s the good news. The not-so-good news? It’s the same spot where Invenergy tried, and failed, to build a gas plant a decade ago. And the anti group that fought Invenergy spent this summer fighting EQT’s Heracles well pad down the road.

Amazon Files Plans for 36 Data Centers at Homer City Gas Plant - - Marcellus Drilling News - Back in August, we told you Amazon Web Services (AWS) was “in discussions” to land data centers at the massive Homer City Energy Campus in Indiana County, PA (see Amazon in Talks to Land Data Centers at Homer City Gas Plant). We said we’d keep watching for the permit filings that would turn “talks” into “reality.” Well, here they are. Amazon’s data center arm, Amazon Data Services, Inc., has filed a preliminary master land development plan with Indiana County to build 36 data centers on roughly 1,100 acres of the campus, powered by the 4.4–4.5 gigawatt (GW) natural gas-fired plant now under construction there.

Fit Energy Plans 15 Data Centers on Luzerne Co. Mine Land   - Marcellus Drilling News - - On Monday night, hundreds of residents packed a Newport Township, Luzerne County, commissioners’ meeting to oppose a giant AI data center campus planned for old mine land in the Lee section of the township. The Times Leader reports the plan calls for 15 data centers and three natural gas power generation facilities on nearly 1,400 acres. The township issued 15 zoning permits for it back in August. Yet one commissioner told the crowd the board hasn’t even met with the developer. The very next morning, the developer, Fit Energy, finally went public with a glossy press release and website. Talk about timing.

Next NEPA Data Center Land Rush? PPL JV Eyes 29% of Fell Twp. - - Marcellus Drilling News - Over the past seven months, MDN has told you about landowners in Salem Township (Luzerne County) getting rich by selling their land for AI data centers, at prices reaching $250,000 to $300,000 per acre. Now the land rush appears to be spreading about 50 miles northeast, to the “Upvalley” area of Lackawanna County, above Scranton. Invitium Energy, a joint venture (JV) between utility owner PPL Corp. and Blackstone Infrastructure, is under agreement to buy about 2,800 acres in Fell Township. That is nearly 29% of the entire township! All told, Invitium has deals to buy close to 7,200 acres across five northern Lackawanna County municipalities. The plan? Build big natural gas-fired power plants, possibly with data centers sitting right next door.

PJM Selects 860 MW Battery Storage Project, 455 MW Natural Gas Plant In Pennsylvania For Expedited Interconnection - On October 8, the PJM Interconnection announced it has accepted the first three projects in a new, temporary Expedited Interconnection Track process designed to get large generation resources online quickly to address the urgent growth in demand for electricity.The projects are two battery storage projects and one natural gas generator upgrade with more than 2,100 MW in combined nameplate capacity that are slated to come online in mid-2019.Two of the projects are located in Pennsylvania--

• -- ENGIE IR Holdings LLC Wayne 345 kV is a storage project to be sited in Crawford, Pennsylvania, in the PENELEC zone, with 860 MW of nameplate capacity.
• -- Hunterstown 500 kV is an upgrade to an existing natural gas facility in Adams, Pennsylvania, in the Met-Ed zone, adding 455 MW of nameplate capacity.

These projects were nominated by Pennsylvania under a request for proposals process initiated in March by the Department of Environmental Protection.  Read more here.The third project is also a battery storage project by ENGIE IR Holdings LLC - Galion 345 kV is a storage project in Morrow, Ohio, in the ATSI zone, with 800 MW of nameplate capacity. In addition to getting generation online quickly, the EIT enables individual states to accelerate select projects based on their resource adequacy needs.Through the EIT, PJM will approve up to 10 interconnection requests per calendar year in 2026 and 2027 for large new or uprated capacity resources. To qualify, these resources must have, among other requirements, a commitment from a relevant state authority to help expedite site permitting – one of the hurdles many projects face after receiving PJM’s permission to connect with the grid.A project must also offer at least 250 MW of unforced capacity, the amount credited for reliability purposes.PJM expects the projects to execute a Generation Interconnection Agreement within 10 months of submission. Proposals will be accepted on a rolling basis until the limit is reached for that calendar year. The EIT process will sunset at the end of 2027.   Visit the PJM Expedited Interconnection Track webpage for more information. Click Here for the PJM announcement.

FERC Slams Brakes on PJM’s ‘Deeply Flawed’ Data Center Power Auction - - Marcellus Drilling News - -Well, that didn’t go as planned. PJM Interconnection, the outfit that runs the electric grid in all or part of 13 states (including Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia) plus D.C., was all set to open a one-time “emergency” auction on Sept. 30 to buy 6,831 megawatts (MW) of brand-new power supply, mostly to feed data centers. The day before, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) accepted the plan—and then promptly froze it for five months. FERC Chairman Laura Swett called it “deeply flawed.” PJM pulled the auction. Here’s what happened, and what it means for gas-fired power in our backyard.

Pushback Builds as Battery Storage Systems Come to Crowded Neighborhoods – WSJ  --Utilities are increasingly using large battery systems to store electricity, helping meet peak demand, support renewable energy and hold down prices. The batteries can help meet peak demand and support renewable energy.  Those benefits have prompted states across the country to offer incentives for more battery storage. But the expansion has also run into resistance. A new wave of battery facilities are being built in or near densely populated areas, where some residents and local officials worry about the risk of fires.

Residents living 200 feet from a Virginia data center reveal what it’s really like -  Homeowners living just 200 feet from a data center in Loudoun County, Virginia, describe life next to America’s AI boom.

What we learned about Ohio's coal retirements and rising electricity demand  - — Ohio lost thousands of megawatts of coal-fired generating capacity over the past decade, but natural-gas expansion kept the state’s overall capacity relatively close to its 2014 level.The challenge now is accelerating demand. Regional grid operator PJM Interconnection is trying to secure additional resources as older plants retire and large electricity users prepare to connect. These are five takeaways from the original article, which examined what replaced Ohio’s coal plants and how the grid’s needs are changing.

Save Ohio Parks tells the Ohio Power Siting Board not to approve the 500 MW gas plant for the Meta Prometheus data center -Save Ohio Parks submitted the following public comment on Case #26-0627-EL-BGN, the NEO Power Generation Facility, a 500 MW gas plant to power the Meta Prometheus data center in New Albany. The Ohio Power Siting Board held a public hearing on NEO on October 6, 2026. Chair French and members of the Ohio Power Siting Board,  My name is Cathy Becker, and I am board president of Save Ohio Parks, a citizens group concerned about fracking of Ohio’s state parks and public lands. I am writing in opposition to the 500 MW NEO Power Generation Facility, the fourth gas plant proposed to power Meta’s Prometheus data center in New Albany. If built, NEO would join Socrates South (200 MW), Socrates North (200 MW), and Socrates the Younger (250 MW), creating 1150 MW of gas plants to power one data center in a suburban area. NEO’s power generation would include 27 simple cycle gas turbines and four reciprocating internal combustion engines. None of this is state-of-the-art technology. Simple cycle turbines are much less efficient and more polluting than combined cycle turbines, which use the same gas to power two different generators. Reciprocating engines expel pollution similar to a gas car engine, only the size of a school bus. If Meta was using combined cycle turbines, the same gas would go a lot farther. But simple cycle turbines burn the gas, then send the waste heat and pollution out 30-foot stacks at 825 to 870 degrees. Again, this is next to a populated Columbus suburb. How much gas these turbines and engines use matters because some of the gas will come from fracking Ohio’s state parks and wildlife areas. Since the program to frack public land began in 2023, Ohio has approved 21,638 acres for oil and gas extraction, largely in Salt Fork State Park and Egypt Valley Wildlife Area. However, 71% of this land was approved just this year – almost three times as many acres as in the previous three years combined. This is for gas to power data centers like Meta’s Prometheus—by far the largest data center complex in Ohio. Ohioans have made it clear in over 10,000 comments submitted to the Oil and Gas Land Management Commission since 2023 that we do not want our parks and wildlife areas subjected to oil and gas extraction. Comments against these nominations routinely run 98% to 100% opposed. These lands were set aside and meant to be protected. We are also concerned about the pollution itself. According to its air permit application, the NEO facility has the potential to create:

• 3,471,813 tons of greenhouse gas pollution
• 197.1 tons of fine particulate matter
• 243.3 tons of Nitrogen Oxides (NOx)
• 172.73 tons of Volatile Organic Chemicals (VOCs)
• 189.1 tons of Sulfur Dioxide (SO2)
• 245.2 tons of Carbon Monoxide (CO)
• 40,200 pounds of Hazardous Air Pollutants (HAPs)

Even if this power plant emits only half these amounts of pollutants, it is still a significant source of pollution. But consider that NEO is the fourth major gas plant for Meta’s Prometheus data center. Together they have the potential to emit the following: (table)Particularly concerning are greenhouse gas emissions – CO2e – and particulate matter 2.5.   The world is at the tipping point of a runaway climate crisis, driven by burning fossil fuels. Just this summer we witnessed a glacier collapse in Nepal that killed 1500 people. We experienced days of dangerous smoke from wildfires burning over 11 million acres of Canadian forests. And here in Ohio we lived through a week of storms and tornadoes that downed trees, knocked out power, flooded basements, and damaged buildings. It will take a long time to repair that damage – and Meta’s gas plants will only continue to make this worse. If NEO is approved, Meta’s gas plants could pour over 8.3 million tons of greenhouse gas into our atmosphere each year – more than annual emissions from the city of Memphis, according to the Carbon Disclosure Project – just to power one data center.Nor does this count three other gas plants approved and proposed to power EdgeConneX data centers in New Albany, which would bring potential greenhouse gas emissions up to 11.9 million tons per year – similar to the emissions of Detroit, all from one business park.Again, if these data center gas plants create only half this much in greenhouse gas, they are still a significant source of climate-warming pollution — yet the Ohio EPA does not consider carbon dioxide or methane in awarding air permits. To say these gas plants have Ohio air permits does not convey the truth of how they use our atmosphere as an open sewer. Then there is the fine particulate matter. At 1/30^th the width of a human hair, particulate matter less than 2.5 micrometers is one of the most harmful forms of air pollution to human health. Particles this small can’t be seen or filtered by the nose. They penetrate into the lungs and enter the bloodstream, triggering inflammation throughout the body. A large body of scientific evidence links exposure to PM 2.5 to asthma, heart disease, strokes, and premature deaths. It accounts for most of the 8 million deaths caused by air pollution worldwide each year. High-risk groups include children, older adults, and people with heart and lung conditions – many of whom live in the vicinity of these gas plants. A report by the Environmental Protection Network, a group of over 800 former career staff of the federal EPA, finds that data center-related air pollution could impose roughly $11.7 billion to $20.9 billion in annual public-health costs by 2028, including 600,000 asthma symptom cases and 1,300 premature deaths — and that over 90 percent of these impacts come from the power plants like NEO supplying electricity to data centers.The harm of burning gas isn’t just at the power plant. It starts at the point of extraction and continues through the life cycle of gas to the point of disposal.Gas has been fracked from Ohio’s public lands since 2023 – but fracking has occurred across Appalachian Ohio – the most disadvantaged part of our state – since 2010. Fracking levies enormous health and environmental costs to communities. Physicians for Social Responsibility publishes a compendium of over 2000 abstracts and links to medical, scientific and investigative reports on oil and gas drilling, fracking, and infrastructure, covering air pollution, water contamination, radioactive releases, public health effects, noise and light pollution, threats to agriculture, threats to climate, and more.In one example, a Yale study of people living near fracking operations in Pennsylvania found that children between ages 2 and 7 were two to three times more likely to be diagnosed with leukemia as children who do not live near fracking operations.Here in Ohio, public records show that from 2015 to 2023, the oil and gas industry experienced almost 2,000 incidents and accidents, including leaks, spills, releases, transportation accidents, pipeline accidents, loss of well control, fires, and explosions. This amounts to an oil and gas accident or incident in Ohio every 1.5 days.Fracking is also associated with earthquakes in Ohio. Last year, the Ohio Department Natural Resources shut down the Bears well pad in Noble County due to the highest number of earthquakes in the state. The number of earthquakes in Ohio has increased significantly since fracking began – from 18 in 2011, to 62 in 2019, to 177 in 2025. Fracking takes enormous amounts of fresh water from Ohio’s lakes and streams and turns it into toxic radioactive waste. ODNR permits show each fracking well is allowed to take 100,000 gallons per day for a total of 40 million to 60 million gallons from places like Atwood Lake or Leatherwood Creek.The water is mixed with toxic chemicals, then injected at extremely high pressure to break apart rock and free oil and gas. When this mixture comes back to the surface, it brings not just oil and gas but also radioactive elements. Although these materials are naturally occurring, the wastewater is highly radioactive and cannot go back into the water cycle.Instead, frack waste is disposed of in Class II injection wells. Ohio has permitted more than 240 Class II injection wells for oil and gas waste, compared to 19 in Pennsylvania and a few dozen in West Virginia. Injection wells are supposed to hold fracking wastewater forever, but that is not happening. Fracking wastewater has migrated into orphan wells and other production wells in Ohio. It now threatens drinking water in Marietta.  Conclusion:Although it is unlikely the Ohio Power Siting Board will deny the NEO Power Generation Facility, there is every reason to do so.

• It will drive more fracking of Ohio state parks and wildlife areas, which the majority of Ohioans oppose.
• It will create enormous amounts of air pollution – as much greenhouse gas pollution as some cities and fine particulate matter that makes people sick.
• It will drive fracking across Appalachian Ohio, already the poorest and most extracted part of the state.
• It takes indirectly or directly billions of gallons from Ohio lakes and streams and turns that water into toxic radioactive waste.
• Fracking wastewater is not staying in disposal wells but is migrating into other wells and threatening drinking water.

All of this is known to economics as “external costs” – all for the sake of one data center. If Meta had to pay these external costs, NEO and other gas plants could not be built.  The OPSB is supposed to weigh all of these elements. Please recognize the costs to the health and environment of New Albany and communities across Ohio and deny the Certificate of Environmental Compatibility and Public Need for the NEO Power Generation Facility as not serving the public interest, convenience, or necessity.

Lawsuit says Enbridge failed to replace old gas line before deadly Rainbow Terrace explosion — A lawsuit filed on behalf of the estate of a man killed in the Rainbow Terrace explosion accuses Enbridge of failing to replace a decades-old gas line that attorneys say contributed to the disaster. Cordale Sheffield, 30, was among the residents caught in the June 23, 2025, explosion and fire at the Cleveland apartment complex in the city’s Garden Valley neighborhood. More than 92% of his body was burned, according to attorney Kyle Wright of Wisehart Wright Trial Lawyers. Sheffield survived for 17 days before dying from his injuries.  Sheffield saved his two stepchildren, Tyrone and Azaria Tate, who also suffered severe burn injuries in the explosion. At least 120 residents were displaced and 44 units destroyed.

Lawsuit alleges Enbridge destroyed evidence after deadly Rainbow Terrace explosion in Cleveland -— The estate of a man who died from injuries suffered in last year's Rainbow Terrace apartment explosion is suing Enbridge Gas and several other defendants, alleging the gas company destroyed or altered critical physical evidence within about 24 hours of the deadly blast. The lawsuit, filed Wednesday in Cuyahoga County Common Pleas Court, alleges Enbridge personnel cut and removed portions of the gas system at the Cleveland apartment complex before the family of Cordale Sheffield or other interested parties had an opportunity to inspect or document the system. The estate's complaint includes a specific cause of action for spoliation of evidence, alleging Enbridge intentionally altered or removed evidence that could have helped investigators determine the source of the gas leak. Sheffield, 31, was severely burned in the June 23, 2025, explosion at the Rainbow Terrace Apartments on Garden Valley Avenue. According to the lawsuit, he suffered full-thickness burns over about 92.75% of his body, as well as inhalation and eye injuries. He spent 17 days in MetroHealth Medical Center's burn intensive care unit before dying from his injuries on July 10, 2025. "Cordell died one of the most painful deaths a human can die," said Sean Claggett, one of two attorneys for the Sheffield family who spoke to 3News on Wednesday. "He was burned, 3rd degree burns over 92% of his body and lived for 17 days before he passed away." Co-counsel Kyle Wright added, "He meant everything to his children, his parents, his siblings. It was a tremendous loss to the family and the community." The lawsuit alleges Enbridge was aware that litigation arising from the explosion was probable and knew the condition of the gas system would be central to determining the cause. According to the complaint, Enbridge's senior legal counsel retained forensic laboratory S-E-A Ltd. on the day of the explosion. The lawsuit alleges that on June 24, Enbridge personnel:

— Cut both service lines serving the building.
— Broke the shutoff valve on the south service line riser.
— Cut the south service line into segments, some of which were too short to be pressure-tested.
— Cut and abandoned a section of the service line between the main tap and curb valve without testing or documenting it.
— Removed portions of the south service line, including a corroded section, valve, plug valve and gas meters, and placed them in the custody of the laboratory.

The estate alleges those actions destroyed the gas system's “as-installed configuration” and made portions of the piping impossible to test to determine whether they had leaked. "The evidence wasn't properly preserved, and that's not just a bald allegation — that's directly from the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio's report," Wright said. "When people destroy evidence, their goal is to make it harder for other people to prove a case, but we're confident the evidence will lead back to them," Claggett added. The complaint cites state pipeline safety investigators who, according to the lawsuit, found that Enbridge's removal process left jurisdictional piping unable to be leak- or pressure-tested accurately to determine the source of the leak. The investigators also said Enbridge needed to educate employees on evidence removal and proper extraction and preservation of evidence. The lawsuit further alleges that Enbridge broke the shutoff valve while attempting to close it for pressure testing. The estate claims the valve and surrounding piping showed no heat damage from the explosion or fire, but that Enbridge later reported to federal regulators that the valve showed signs of damage from the explosion, fire and building collapse. The estate alleges Enbridge's handling of the evidence was intentional and deprived both the plaintiff and state investigators of the ability to determine the condition of the gas piping between the main and the building's meter. It also alleges the company knew the physical condition of the service line and valves would be important to any investigation and anticipated litigation. What the lawsuit alleges about the explosion The complaint also accuses Enbridge of negligence that contributed to the explosion and Sheffield's death. According to the lawsuit, the steel service line supplying the building's south mechanical rooms had been installed around 1959 and was about 66 years old when the explosion occurred. The estate alleges the line was bare steel, lacked effective corrosion protection and had severely corroded where it passed through the building's masonry wall. The lawsuit also alleges an Enbridge inspection and leak survey conducted June 2, 2025 — 21 days before the explosion — lasted about four minutes and did not identify leaks or corrosion. The complaint claims the same service line later showed severe corrosion and had corroded through at the building's wall. The estate further alleges Enbridge's maps did not show the south service line and that the company could not initially locate the curb valve after the explosion. According to the complaint, natural gas continued feeding the fire for nearly 20 hours after the blast. The lawsuit also names Rainbow Terrace 2021 LLC, American Community Developers and The Carswell Group, doing business as Independent Management Services. The estate alleges the apartment owners and property manager failed to properly respond to reports of natural gas odors and failed to maintain the property and gas system in a safe condition. The complaint alleges eight causes of action, including wrongful death claims against the property owners and manager, a wrongful death negligence claim against Enbridge and related companies, a survival claim for Sheffield's injuries and pain and suffering, and the spoliation claim against Enbridge. The estate is seeking wrongful death and survival damages, compensatory damages for the alleged spoliation of evidence, punitive damages and attorney fees. The complaint seeks more than $25,000, plus interest and costs, and requests a jury trial.

Directional drilling damages Akron home, family says it needed News 5 to get some help — Don George Jr. has been hauling furniture out of his home and loading it into his sister's trailer, which now sits parked on his front lawn. "This is half of my furniture from my house," George said. The sight of it makes him emotional. "I've been very angry the last few days," he said, fighting back tears. "Because my house is destroyed." George and his wife, Karen, said the damage happened on Sept. 24, when Karen was home alone and noticed something was wrong. "I didn't know what it was," Karen said. Liquid began surrounding the house and seeping up through the floors. "It soaked the (carpet) padding, and underneath the padding is more mud," Don said while showing the damage. The liquid was horizontal directional drilling mud — a clay-based mixture used to lubricate the ground when boring holes for underground piping. Mid-Ohio Pipeline is conducting the Akron project on behalf of Cargill. Workers came to the Georges' home that day and assessed the damage. "'You guys are going to be fine. We're going to take care of everything,'" Karen recalled them saying. But Don said the companies originally agreed to cover some costs, then went silent when he requested additional inspections — including a check of his sewer pipes, where the mud had tracked inside the home. "We were just trying to figure out, well, what do we do? Who do we call?" Karen said. They called the News 5 Investigators. After News 5 contacted the companies, Cargill responded in writing, saying it was working with Don. Don said that had not been the case at the time of the inquiry. The situation echoes a similar incident in Twinsburg Township earlier this year, when a different company using the same drilling technique struck a gas line. The resulting explosion damaged dozens of homes and prompted several communities to temporarily ban horizontal directional drilling. In Akron, the Georges said the outreach made a difference. After News 5 contacted the companies, Mid-Ohio Pipeline agreed to a settlement and repairs. "I'm happy because if you guys wouldn't have gotten involved, we wouldn't be getting any answers or anything," Karen said. "And then I can move everything back in and get on with my life," Don said.

Summit Investments to buy into Ohio Gathering - Summit Midstream's general partner will buy the equity interest Blackhawk Midstream currently holds in the Utica Shale gathering system.

29 New Shale Well Permits Reported for PA-OH-WV Sep 28 – Oct 4 -  Marcellus Drilling News - --The Marcellus/Utica region received 29 new drilling permits last week, September 28 – October 4, nearly double the 16 permits issued two weeks earlier. Pennsylvania issued 20 of the new permits. Ohio issued 9 new permits. And West Virginia got skunked, issuing no new permits. The drillers who received new permits last week were: Blackhill Energy, Coterra Energy (now Devon Energy), EOG Resources, Expand Energy, Gulfport Energy, Infinity Natural Resources (INR), and Snyder Brothers.  Armstrong County | Blackhill Energy | Bradford County | Carroll County | Coterra Energy (Cabot O&G) | Devon Energy | EOG Resources | Expand Energy | Guernsey County | Gulfport Energy | Harrison County | INR/Infinity Natural Resources | Monroe County | Snyder Brothers | Sullivan County | Susquehanna County |  Wyoming County (PA)

Ex-DEP Chief Wants Shale to Recycle PA Conventional Brine for Free -- Marcellus Drilling News -  A Pennsylvania House committee held a hearing on Monday about spreading brine from conventional oil and gas wells on township dirt roads. Former Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) Secretary David Hess testified and proposed a fix aimed squarely at Marcellus drillers: make the shale industry recycle all brine from Pennsylvania's conventional wells, "at no cost to conventional well owners." Shale isn't the problem here, but it could end up with the bill.

DEP: Routine Inspection Of Appalachia Midstream SVC Shale Gas Water Pipeline Construction Site Found Fertilizer Mixture Sprayed Directly Into A Stream In Lycoming County  - On September 24, 2026, the Department of Environmental Protection inspected the Appalachia Midstream SVC LLC Hemlock A Pad shale gas water pipeline construction site and found a contractor sprayed a fertilizer/seed mixture directly into a stream at a stream crossing in McNett Township, Lycoming County.This particular location is a major construction site for two different shale gas-related pipelines by two different companies showing the scale of these operations.DEP noted other areas around the crossing and in wetland areas were hand-seeded and straw applied as temporary stabilization.DEP inspected other areas of the right-of-way to make sure erosion control measures were installed and working properly.Multiple violations were issued related to the illegal discharge of a substance polluting the stream and a response was requested by October 20.Click Here for the DEP inspection report + photos.DEP did a follow-up inspection of the site on October 6, 2026 and found additional erosion control blanketing was installed at the stream crossing. A timbermat airbridge was also installed across the stream as part of the construction of an aboveground water pipeline by a contractor for EQT in the same right-of-way. No other erosion and sedimentation issues were found. DEP said violations would be continued until permanent stabilization measures are installed. Click Here for the DEP inspection report + photos.

DEP: Large Release Of Contaminated Water Soaks Ground At DJR Well Services Conventional Oil & Gas Well Site In Mercer County    On September 30, 2026, the Department of Environmental Protection did a routine inspection of the DJR Well Services Inc. F. George 9 conventional oil and gas well in Salem Township, Mercer County and found a release of contaminated water from a storage tank.DEP said a “notable amount of production fluid” was observed at the base of a storage tank on the site.Photos show the contaminated water had soaked the ground around the tank and appeared to have been releasing fluid for some time.The tank itself and other equipment on the site was described as being in “poor condition.”  DEP requested the well owner to “please clean up the spilled fluids and notify the Department when completed” and identify the cause of the release and corrective actions planned.A written response was requested by October 17. Click Here for the DEP inspection report + photos.

DEP - Day 357: S.R. Star O&G LLC Still Fails To Comply With An Order To Plug At Least Some Of The 11 Abandoned Conventional Oil & Gas Wells It Owns In Butler County - On October 1, 2026, the Department of Environmental Protection conducted follow-up inspections of 11  S.R. Star O&G LLC abandoned conventional oil and gas wells in Slippery Rock Township, Butler County and found the owner has still failed to comply with an October 9, 2025 DEP order.  DEP found the owner failed to plug at least one of the 11 abandoned wells by December 31, 2025 and failed to submit annual production, waste and well integrity reports by December 8, 2025.  The original violations for failure to submit annual reports date from March 13, 2024 and failure to plug the abandoned wells were issued on April 23, 2025.  DEP continued the February 24, 2026 violations for failure to comply with a DEP order. DEP requested a response to the violations by October 13. Click Here for DEP inspection reports + photos for the 11 wells.

DEP: Conventional Well Fracking By Cline Oil Inc. Causes Uncontrolled Release Of Crude Oil From 2nd Abandoned Conventional Well In The City Of Bradford, McKean County - On October 5, 2026, the Department of Environmental Protection was notified of a sheen and strong crude oil odor in Tunungwant Creek at High and East Main Streets in Bradford, McKean County. At about the same time, Cline Oil Inc. contacted DEP saying fracking of the Gibson Merry Miller J4 conventional well in Bradford resulted in “communication” with a second abandoned well about 500 feet downslope from the Gibson Merry well causing a discharge of crude oil. DEP discovered the release from the abandoned well traveled about 400 feet down the dirt well access road and flowed into a storm sewer through a grate along Hillside Avenue. The crude oil then traveled another 850 feet through the storm drains before discharging into the East Branch of Tunungwant Creek. Cline Oil had placed absorbent peat at the abandoned well site and over the bank and was in the process of collecting pockets of accumulated oil. A boom was placed at the storm sewer outfall to provide an area to collect the oil before it entered the creek. Representatives of the Bradford Sanitary Authority were contacted and arrived onsite to develop a plan for recovering the crude oil from the storm sewer system. Numerous pockets of accumulated drudge oil were observed downstream of the storm sewer outfall along the banks of the stream and Cline Oil crews had started to collect the oil by the end of the DEP inspection. “The quantity of oil released is unknown. Given the lack of significant product in the Tunungwant Creek, it is evident that the majority of what was released was discharged onto the ground and/or was collected in the storm sewer.” Multiple violations were issued. A written response was requested by October 23. Click Here for DEP inspection report + photos.

DEP: Flash Fire At Expand Operating LLC Shale Gas Well Pad Compressor Station On State Game Lands Causes Minor Damage In Great Bend Twp., Susquehanna County - On October 6, 2026, the Department of Environmental Protection inspected the site of a flash fire at an Expand Operating LLC shale gas well pad compressor station on State Game Lands in Great Bend Township, Susquehanna County. The fire occurred on October 3 at about 10:48 p.m. at the RU-75 SGL-A shale gas well pad. A representative of the well owner walked the inspector through the incident. “An optical "fire eye" sensor detected a flame and triggered an emergency shut down. This action successfully isolated the unit by shutting the suction valve, cutting off the main fuel supply and containing the incident to the compressor skid. “Local fire departments were dispatched, and by the time they arrived, the fire was largely smoldering, having been starved of its primary fuel source. They used a small amount of water to extinguish the remaining hotspots. “The damage is contained to the turbo charger area, and the ceiling directly above the fire shows only minor smoked blistering. The containment skid successfully held the volume of extinguishing water used by the fire department.” An inspection "surrounding the compressor station and found no evidence of fluid contamination or staining on the ground.” No violations were issued. Click Here for DEP inspection report + photos.

DEP - Day 51: Multiple Contaminated Water Seeps Continuing From INR OPR LLC Cooper Shale Gas Well Pad In Indiana County After 336,000 Gallon Fracking Fluid Spill -   On October 7, 2026, the Department of Environmental Protection did a follow-up inspection at the INR OPR LLC Cooper shale gas well pad in Young Township, Indiana County and found multiple contaminated water seeps were continuing from the pad after a 336,000 gallon fracking fluid spill on August 17.  DEP said three large areas of riprap had been installed on the excavated slope of the well pad where contaminated water seeps have been occurring due to loose connections in the pad’s water containment system. Photos show water from the seeps was being collected at the foot of the slope in a sump.  Other photos show large areas where contaminated soil was excavated around the pad were being seeded to help control erosion.  DEP suggested INR contact the Department permitting section to see if their Erosion and Sedimentation Permit needs updating as a result of these actions. Click Here for the DEP inspection report + photos. Also take a look at DEP’s September 30 inspection report photos to get a better idea of the scale of the restoration efforts in areas where contaminated soil was excavated.An August 17, 2026 inspection report posted by the Department of Environmental Protection documents how “copious quantities” of fracking water came “gushing” from an uncontrolled shale gas well at the INR OPR LLC Cooper well pad in Young Township, Indiana County contaminating a large area and polluting nearby Whiskey Run. Read more here.On August 31, 2026 DEP reported an estimated 336,000 gallons of fracking flowback water was released during the incident and an undetermined amount went into Whiskey Run. Read more here.The incident resulted in a major response from firefighters in Indiana, Armstrong, Allegheny and Westmoreland counties to support a specialized gas well response crew that worked to bring the well under control. Read more here.

Antis Cheer as Allegheny Co. Moves to Pull Shale Air Exemptions - - Marcellus Drilling News - The Allegheny County Board of Health has fired the first shot in what looks like a slow-motion campaign to squeeze shale drilling out of the county. At its September meeting, the board voted unanimously to have the county health department look into whether Article 21, the county’s air pollution rulebook, should be rewritten to remove permitting exemptions that oil and gas operations now enjoy. Nothing changes yet. But the idea came straight out of the board’s own “Fracking Committee,” chaired by a writer for an anti-fracking group, and the folks at Food & Water Watch are already celebrating. Here’s what happened, what it could mean for drillers and landowners in Allegheny County, and why MDN isn’t buying the “it’s just a review” line

Warning: Push to Ban 95% of New PA Shale Wells via Setbacks Lives On - - Marcellus Drilling News - The radical green groups trying to ban new Marcellus/Utica drilling in Pennsylvania through the back door haven’t gone away. They push shale well “setbacks” out to as much as a mile. Yesterday (Oct. 7), a coalition led by the Clean Air Council and Environmental Integrity Project (EIP) marked the two-year anniversary of its rulemaking petition and pushed in Harrisburg, calling on the Shapiro administration to act. The Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) still plans to deliver its recommendation to the Environmental Quality Board (EQB) by the end of this year. The antis are making noise. We need to make more.

Same Antis, New Target: PA Data Center Protest Is About Stopping Gas - - Marcellus Drilling News - On Tuesday, a crowd of protesters packed the Pennsylvania Capitol Rotunda in Harrisburg to demand a statewide moratorium (a ban, really) on new data centers. Most of the coverage framed it as an outpouring of everyday Pennsylvanians fed up with Big Tech. MDN took a closer look at who organized the rally, who arranged the buses, and who stood at the microphone. What we found: the same groups and many of the same faces that have fought shale drilling, pipelines, and gas-fired power plants in this state for the past 15 years. New signs. Same agenda.

HydroEdge Buys Control of RES Water, Forms Big M-U Frack Water Firm - Marcellus Drilling News - The Marcellus/Utica water business just got a bit more consolidated. HydroEdge Solutions, a Canonsburg (Washington County, PA) company that moves frack water from point A to point B, has acquired a majority interest in Bridgeville (Allegheny County) based RES Water. The combined outfit will have about 350 employees, five water treatment, recycling, and storage facilities in Pennsylvania, roughly 700,000 barrels of storage, and the ability to process up to 116,000 barrels of water per day. If the HydroEdge name rings a bell, it should. Back in June, HydroEdge (operating as Myers Water Transfer) bought one of the three Williamsport-area sites formerly run by troubled Eureka Resources, a story MDN has followed closely since Eureka’s “black goop” spill into the Susquehanna River in August 2025.

Seismos CEO: Closed-Loop Fracking Already Used in Marcellus/Utica  - Marcellus Drilling News --Back in March, we told you about "closed-loop" fracking from Seismos and its partner ProFrac. The technology listens to a well while it's being fracked and adjusts the job in real time, while the stage is still being pumped (see ProFrac and Seismos Bring "Closed-Loop Fracking" to U.S. Shale). At the time we asked: Is it coming to the Marcellus/Utica? Last week Seismos opened a new research center in Texas, and its PR team offered MDN some time with founder and CEO Panos Adamopoulos. We sent five questions specific to our region. The headline answer: yes, closed-loop fracturing has already been used in "the basin." Seismos won't say who used it or how many stages they pumped. But Panos did confirm that drillers don't need ProFrac to use it, and he laid out the math on how much more gas a well might produce. He also says the same acoustic technology can inspect pipelines from the inside, including here in Appalachia.
 

Alpha Compute Walks Back Oil Claims, Adds a Marcellus Test Well - - Marcellus Drilling News - On Sept. 22, Alpha Compute Corp. said it was buying an old Pennsylvania oil field (county not named) for $5.5 million and planned to put a second 200 MW data center on it (see Alpha Compute’s 2nd PA Data Center Site Comes with 75 Oil Wells). On Tuesday (Sept. 29), the company issued an “update” on the deal. Then it issued the same update again, 86 minutes later. The big news: the property comes with a drilled but not-yet-completed Marcellus “test well,” which the company now says can power that 200 MW data center. The company also now concedes that its 10,000-barrels-per-acre figure is oil in place, not oil anyone can actually get out. What’s still missing: the county, the seller, a closing, and a DEP bond. And some of the new math doesn’t add up.

500 Feet Isn't Enough! Families, Environmental And Health Groups Call On Shapiro Administration To Increase Minimum Setbacks From Shale Gas Wells To Protect Pennsylvanians   On October 7, families and environmental and health organizations from across the state called on the Shapiro Administration to establish greater protective distances between new shale gas wells and nearby homes, schools, and water sources. Groups made this push as Pennsylvania faces an influx of proposed data centers. These proposals raise concerns about increased reliance on fracked gas and the potential for additional drilling and fossil fuel infrastructure across the state, putting Pennsylvania families in danger. Pennsylvania’s current rules allow fracking wells to be located as close as 500 feet from buildings (and even closer with exceptions)-- a distance that was never set based on health studies and woefully insufficient to protect public health and the environment from the numerous dangers of fracking. To address harms from fracking, Clean Air Council and Environmental Integrity Project filed a rulemaking petition with the Environmental Quality Board in October 2024, asking the Department of Environmental Protection to increase minimum setback distances from fracking wells. This October marks two years since the rulemaking petition was filed. It was accepted for study by the Environmental Quality Board in December of 2025. Minimum setbacks, also referred to as protective buffers and no-drill zones in the context of fracking, are mandatory distances that fracking companies must abide by to keep fracking operations separated from homes, schools, hospitals, drinking water wells, and surface water. “Pennsylvanians are frustrated with politics that seem to work against our cries for a better environment and better health,” said Lauren Otero, Staff Attorney at Clean Air Council. “This is a simple step forward, yet we wait years for our Commonwealth to help us.” “Nothing has given me more hope than watching communities all across Pennsylvania come together, speaking out against the predatory and parasitic companies looking to pollute our homes and exploit our natural resources,” said Katie Weber, who helped form grassroots group, Protect Burgettstown. “We are united and our message is clear: We do not want data centers. And we do not want fracking anywhere near our homes, schools, or daycares.” “Pennsylvania can do their part to protect Pennsylvania citizens with far more protective setbacks between fracking activities, people and water,” said Kurt Limbach, a member of Concerned Residents of Western PA and Mountain Watershed Association. “It could also do its part by conducting a thorough review of any air permits to potentially massive polluters like the Homer City fracked gas power plant. The Pennsylvania constitution guarantees the rights of Pennsylvania citizens to clean air and water. Our citizens should not be forced to live in a sacrifice zone to power AI. “ "Too many Pennsylvania families are being harmed by fracking and drilling right next to their homes, schools, and daycare centers," said Lisa Graves Marcucci, Pennsylvania Coordinator of Community Outreach for the Environmental Integrity Project. "We need protective buffers now. The current 500-foot minimum setback distance was never based on any public health information. And Pennsylvania's inaction has put more communities at risk each day. “Since we filed our Petition for Rulemaking on October 22, 2024, at least 784 new fracking wells have been drilled with only a 500-foot setback required to protect nearby Pennsylvanians. “We urge the Shapiro Administration and the Environmental Quality Board to act now to increase minimum setback distances." A rulemaking petition submitted to the Environmental Quality Board to increase setbacks from shale gas drilling operations was accepted for study in December 2025.  Read more here.The petition asks the Board and DEP to change its regulations to increase setbacks from shale gas wells from 500 feet to a minimum of 3,281 feet from buildings and drinking water wells, 5,280 feet from schools, daycares and hospitals and 750 feet from any surface water.The petition cites 42 scientific studies in support of the proposal and includes five affidavits of impacted residents.  (See the Resource Links below for more information.)In March, DEP told the Environmental Quality Board it is looking to have a recommendation to the Board on the petition by the end of 2026. Read more here. Click Here for more information on the petition.    Visit the Protective Buffers PA Coalition website for more information.

Pipeline Outages Pin Appalachian Natural Gas Prices Below $1 - Texas Eastern Transmission (Tetco) expects its Line 15 outage in Kentucky to last into early November, keeping Appalachian natural gas bottled up and regional cash prices under pressure as other outages add to the squeeze. NGI chart shows Texas Eastern M-2, 30 Receipt daily natural gas prices falling from a July 2026 peak near $2.85/MMBtu to below $1 in October. At a Glance:
Tetco eyes early November Line 15 restart
Lost Northeast supply supports NYMEX
Tetco M-2 trades near 82 cents

Too Much Gas, Too Little Pipe: M-U Spot Prices Slump Below $1   - Marcellus Drilling News - - Here’s a head-scratcher for you. The Henry Hub spot (physical, not futures) price, the national benchmark for natural gas down in Louisiana, closed yesterday at $3.155 per MMBtu (million British thermal units, roughly the same as 1 Mcf, or a thousand cubic feet). Up here in the Marcellus/Utica, the very same molecule of gas sold for 88.5 cents. That’s not a typo. Our gas traded at a $2.27 discount to Henry Hub, fetching just 28 cents on the dollar. Why? The short answer is the same one we’ve given for 15 years: not enough pipelines.

WV AG Leads 26-State Push for FERC Pipeline Fast-Track Rule - - Marcellus Drilling News - A coalition of 26 state attorneys general, led by West Virginia AG JB McCuskey, is urging the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to adopt a proposed rule that would let interstate pipelines do bigger upgrades, faster, without FERC’s full project-by-project review. All three Republican AGs in our neck of the woods signed on: West Virginia’s McCuskey, Pennsylvania’s Dave Sunday, and Ohio’s D. Andrew Wilson. The 24-page comment letter, dated Oct. 6, is a point-by-point rebuttal to a blue-state coalition (New York, Maryland, Massachusetts, California, and friends) that wants FERC to scrap the whole idea. It’s a wonky fight over a wonky program, but it matters a great deal to drillers, pipeline companies, and royalty owners in the Marcellus/Utica.

MVP Delivers $27.1M Property Tax Windfall to 11 WV Counties - - Marcellus Drilling News - Remember all those years of protesters chaining themselves to equipment, lawsuits by the dozen, and court-ordered work stoppages trying to kill the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP)? Here’s what West Virginians got for finally building it: a fat new check. A new report from West Virginia State Treasurer Larry Pack’s office finds that MVP drove a 62% jump in the value of rural utility property in the 11 counties it crosses, generating nearly $27.1 million in new property tax revenue in a single year—about $9.1 million for county commissions and nearly $18 million for local schools. MVP-related utility property accounted for more than 86% of ALL the growth in property tax revenue in those counties. One pipeline. Eighty-six percent.

Air Permit for MVP Boost Gas Expansion Faces Challenges- MVP Boost, the plan to add 0.6 Bcf/d of capacity to the Mountain Valley Pipeline traversing West Virginia and Virginia, has hit a snag. The project requires upgrading three existing compressor stations as well as building an entirely new compressor station in Montgomery County, VA, called Swann. All four compressor stations are along the portion of the line that is in dark blue in the map. However, county supervisors passed a resolution that said the Swann site is unsuitable for a compressor station because of an issue with a railroad that occasionally blocks the only access road. This resolution contradicts an earlier signature from the county attorney stating that the site is suitable. The conflict within county government is holding up the issuance of a state air permit and jeopardizing the project’s target to be flowing gas by mid-2028.

MVP Boost Update: FERC Decision Near, State Permit Frozen - - Marcellus Drilling News - Mountain Valley Pipeline’s (MVP) plan to push more natural gas through its existing pipe, a project called MVP Boost, is closing in on a federal decision. FERC staff have already given the project a clean bill of environmental health. But back in Virginia, Boost is stuck in neutral, all because one county can’t seem to make up its mind. The centerpiece of Boost is a brand-new compressor station in Elliston (Montgomery County), Virginia. It’s called the Swann Compressor Station, named after Pittsburgh Steelers Hall of Famer Lynn Swann (MVP’s operator is based in Pittsburgh). Right now, Swann is having trouble getting off the line of scrimmage.

WV AG Leads 26-State Push for FERC Pipeline Fast-Track Rule - - Marcellus Drilling News - A coalition of 26 state attorneys general, led by West Virginia AG JB McCuskey, is urging the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to adopt a proposed rule that would let interstate pipelines do bigger upgrades, faster, without FERC’s full project-by-project review. All three Republican AGs in our neck of the woods signed on: West Virginia’s McCuskey, Pennsylvania’s Dave Sunday, and Ohio’s D. Andrew Wilson. The 24-page comment letter, dated Oct. 6, is a point-by-point rebuttal to a blue-state coalition (New York, Maryland, Massachusetts, California, and friends) that wants FERC to scrap the whole idea. It’s a wonky fight over a wonky program, but it matters a great deal to drillers, pipeline companies, and royalty owners in the Marcellus/Utica.

Pipeline raises questions from multiple counties -– There is a growing demand by utility companies for additional natural gas supply. The demand in the states of Kentucky, Indiana and Ohio is so much that a 450-mile transmission line is being proposed by Texas Gas. But no matter the need is expressed, there are still plenty of property owners who are not interested in having anything to do with the company installing the line. On Thursday, the Trimble County Extension Service office was filled with residents who had questions for representatives with Boardwalk, which is representing Texas Gas. The Borealis project is a proposed line that will supply additional natural gas, mainly to existing utility customers. At this stage, the construction could begin as early as late 2028. But there is much work to be done and approvals must be secured. The current stage is meeting with property owners to allow the company the right to survey their property. According to Steve Chretien, Texas Gas already has an existing line along the route; however, a greater demand requires the 36-45-inch line. The first priority is to use existing utility easements. In Ohio, he said that has been achieved for 80-85 percent of the properties needed. The number jumped to 90 percent in Indiana on its 52-mile stretch. In Kentucky, the 90-mile portion has co-location in about 65 percent of the properties. Chretien, vice president of growth projects, said the company looked at various routes, including taking it to the north of Louisville; however, it was not feasible to do that and it was not possible to run it along the existing line that is in Louisville and Jeffersontown. Aerial views of the possible route have already been conducted. It is now that the landowners who are in the projected path are being contacted. Boardwalk is looking for a 300-foot easement that would not be permanent. At the end, he said the permanent easement would be permanent and construction would take place over about 125 feet. The property would be reclaimed to its original state once work is done. The survey stage is important as the company must identify and cultural or environmental issues. Existing utilities must be located. And discussions with property owners about their concerns and wishes must be addressed. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission would receive a petition in late 2026 to actually file the pre-application. At that time, the route would be determined. It would take up to a year for the FERC to rule on the application. During that time, public open houses would be held in early 2027 all along the 450-mile pipeline. Environmental studies would also be conducted during mid-2027 and the application would be filed in late 2027. Construction could begin in late 2028 and would take 12-18 months. The target date to have the line in service would be the fourth quarter of 2029. Trimble County Judge/Executive John Ogburn Jr. said it was important to get information out to the public for those who represented the company, not just was placed on social media. Tami Crecelius, who lives in Bullitt County, thanked Ogburn for having the meeting. She said it has been difficult in her own community for elected officials to schedule such a meeting. Ogburn said he wanted everyone to know what was going on. The more information available, the tough process is made a little easier. Among his concerns was the impact on local roads which might have heavy equipment being used. Chretien said all roads utilized by the project would be assessed prior to construction. A bond can be required and all roads would be returned to normal condition once the work was done. Ogburn also inquired about the ability of getting some gas service to local residents. Buzz Backstrom, senior vice president for commercial projects, said that it appears the local suppliers are Louisville Gas and Electric, Carrollton Utility and parts of Shelby County. That would be an issue to be discussed with those local utilities since the new line is simply a transmission line. There were plenty of individuals from Trimble, Henry, Shelby and Bullitt counties in attendance and many were very concerned about the prospects of a 36-42 inch natural gas line running on their property. And some of the discussion was very emotional. For one resident, she was concerned about her horses, which would have to be boarded elsewhere during construction. She said she didn’t have the money to board them elsewhere but she didn’t want to risk one falling into a ditch. And she added there was a cemetery on her property. Kal Laviolette, director of land, said that during the process, the company can work with property owners to deal with issues, such as boarding of her horses. But, during the cultural and historical survey, things like cemeteries and homes on the historic registry would have to be avoided. Another resident already has two utility lines on her property and she would appreciate the third one going on someone else’s property. She said that even if Texas Gas gave her $100,000, that would not make up for the depreciation of her property value. “We have built our dream home here,” she told Boardwalk representatives. The pipeline would be 50 foot from her home and would interfere with her business also. And compensation would not help her move her barn. One resident said that a pipeline previously proposed had been stopped and inquired if the county would try to halt this one. Ogburn said the other project was a private one and this one is for public use. He did offer a thought that in other parts of the state, royalties are paid to property owners are affect and he wondered if that could be a topic of discussion. Another resident was concerned that the natural gas pipeline was really to a way to get the product to the Gulf Coast for off-seas customers. Backstrom said that to his knowledge that the natural gas would be used in Kentucky, Indiana and Ohio to existing utility companies. Crecelius asked if any of the Boardwalk representatives would want to sleep within 50 feet of the transmission line. Rusty Linares said that he, in fact, lived with his wife and daughter lived with him within 100 feet of a compressor station. “We would never put anyone in danger,” said vice president of operations Rusty Linares, who detailed some of the safety tests which were done regularly on the line. Some were concerned that they would no longer be able to use the property which is taken in the gas line easement. However, Chretien said that was not correct. Crops can be planted and livestock could use the land for pasture. A natural gas line could have over four feet of top soil above the line. Property values were also a topic of concern. Boardwalk officials said that there is no evidence that property values would be adversely affected. The biggest concern may have been with the ability of the company to ultimately take property through eminent domain if an easement settlement couldn’t be reached. Although Laviolette said that it would be the last resort, it could happen. However, he said that is not the goal and it seldom occurs. He said Boardwalk and Texas Gas want to work with property owners to make all of the accommodations as possible. If a property owner hasn’t been contacted recently, there is a possibility that their land is not included in the preliminary path. Josie Hammon, who is the manager of government affairs, said anyone can contact her if they have questions. Her contact is 502-612-9494 or Josie.Hammon@bwpipelines.com. There is a Facebook group titled Kentucky Counties United Against Texas gasline.

From Drill Bit to Trading Desk: Expand Energy Goes All-In on AI - - Marcellus Drilling News -   Expand Energy, the largest natural gas producer in the country (born from the 2024 merger of Chesapeake Energy and Southwestern Energy), is going all-in on artificial intelligence (AI). Recently, tech consulting firm Thoughtworks announced that Expand has hired it to build AI capability across the entire company. Not just out in the field, but in the office and on the gas marketing desk, too. Expand wants a working AI tool in “production” (i.e., actually being used, not just tested) by the end of this year. That’s about 12 weeks from now! This is not Expand’s first AI rodeo. Back in January, Expand signed a deal with Baker Hughes to put AI-powered software on thousands of its Marcellus, Utica, and Haynesville wells.

Kinder Says TGP 219 South Pipeline Could Be Multiple Times Bigger -- Marcellus Drilling News - Back in July, we told you Tennessee Gas Pipeline (TGP), a Kinder Morgan subsidiary, had launched a non-binding open season for its 219 South Project (see TGP Launches Open Season to Flow More M-U Molecules South). The project would move up to 530,000 dekatherms per day (Dth/d) of Marcellus/Utica gas south from TGP’s Station 219 in Pennsylvania through Ohio, West Virginia, Kentucky and Tennessee. A dekatherm is a measure of heat content, and 530,000 Dth/d works out to roughly 510 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d). We predicted Kinder would get “plenty of bites.” Did they ever! Kinder CFO David Michels said in a recent fireside chat that the response was “very strong and positive.” And here’s the kicker: he said the final project could be multiple times bigger than originally announced.

Called It: Big Green Takes Kinder’s MSX & SSE4 Pipelines to Court - - Marcellus Drilling News - Back in August, we told you FERC had approved Kinder Morgan’s $5.2 billion pair of Southeast pipeline projects, and we told you to expect Big Green to come after it (see FERC Green-Lights $5.2B Kinder Morgan Southeast Gas Push). Here we are. On Oct. 1, the Southern Environmental Law Center (SELC), along with the Sierra Club’s own lawyer, asked the federal appeals court in Washington, D.C., to “review and set aside” FERC’s approval of the Mississippi Crossing (MSX) and South System Expansion 4 (SSE4) projects. Ten environmental and community groups and two landowners signed on.

Mass. Gov. Who Bragged About Killing Pipelines Now Wants One, Fast  - Marcellus Drilling News - -Back in 2022, then-Massachusetts Attorney General (now Governor) Maura Healey hit the campaign trail and bragged, “I stopped two gas pipelines from coming into this state” (see Mass. Gov. Again Changes Story re Blocking Two NatGas Pipelines). Fast forward four and a half years. Healey is running for reelection in a race where the No. 1 issue is sky-high energy bills. So what does she do? She writes a letter to President Trump’s Energy Secretary, Chris Wright, asking the feds to hurry up and approve a natural gas pipeline expansion into Massachusetts. You can’t make this stuff up.

Constitution Water Walk Ends with Jars of Water and a New Coalition -- The 108-mile “Women’s Water Walk” along the route of the proposed Constitution Pipeline wrapped up last Sunday in Schoharie. On Tuesday, the walkers carried jars of creek water to Gov. Kathy Hochul’s office in Albany. The walk is over, but it didn’t end quietly. It gave birth to a new, permanent anti-pipeline coalition run by Frack Action. The Governor’s office answered with a carefully worded statement that isn’t quite the “stand strong” pledge the walkers came for. And the walk’s fundraising came up about 80% short of its goal.

Bipartisan Permitting Bill Takes Aim at NY’s Pipeline Veto Power - - Marcellus Drilling News -   Four U.S. senators—two Republicans, two Democrats—released the final text last Wednesday of a major bipartisan permitting reform bill called the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026. It’s 417 pages long, and buried in it are some of the most pipeline-friendly provisions we’ve seen come out of Congress in years: a 150-day deadline to file lawsuits, a nine-month cap on state water permit reviews for interstate gas pipelines, and a free pass from NEPA review for compressor stations and looping built inside existing pipeline rights-of-way. The catch? It has to clear the Senate (60 votes) AND the House during the lame-duck session after the Nov. 3 elections. The clock is ticking.

NGSA Winter Outlook: Cheaper Gas, Record Supply, Not Enough Pipes - - Marcellus Drilling News - The Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA) released its 26th annual Winter Outlook yesterday, and the bottom line is music to the ears of anyone who pays a heating bill: NGSA sees “downward market pressure” on natural gas prices this winter compared to last. Henry Hub futures for November through March average $3.43 per MMBtu, down $1.08 (23.9%) from $4.51/MMBtu realized last winter. That’s less happy news for landowners hoping for fat royalty checks. But buried on page 5 of the report is a nugget every MDN reader should notice: last winter, while nearly every other U.S. shale basin grew, Marcellus and Utica production actually shrank. The reason? Pipes. Or rather, the lack of them.

US Natural Gas Supply Growth Seen Outpacing Winter Demand Despite LNG Gains -US natural gas supply growth is expected to outpace rising demand this winter, leaving the market well stocked even with LNG exports climbing and putting downward pressure on prices compared with last winter, according to the Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA).  US dry natural gas production forecast to rise to 112.5 Bcf/d in winter 2026-2027, up from 109.9 Bcf/d last winter and a 105 Bcf/d three-year average. At a Glance:
Winter production seen at 112.5 Bcf/d
LNG exports rise 2.2 Bcf/d
Storage withdrawals seen easing

U.S. LNG Feedgas Demand Falls Due to Maintenance - U.S. LNG feedgas moved lower last week as brief maintenance at Freeport and volatility at Golden Pass weighed on intake. U.S. LNG feedgas demand averaged about 17.8 Bcf/d for the week ending October 5, down 0.5 Bcf/d week-on-week (see blue-dotted line below).Golden Pass continues to face delays in bringing its first train fully online, with no timeline clarifications announced, according to our LNG Voyager Weekly Report.  Feedgas has been somewhat inconsistent lately, ranging from 100 MMcf/d to above 500 MMcf/d. Cove Point also remains offline for annual maintenance but is expected to restart soon. All other U.S. terminals are operating at or above full utilization.

Isaias Track Skirts Most Gulf LNG as Coast Guard Sets Storm Conditions -The US Coast Guard ordered storm preparations at lower Mississippi River ports on Wednesday as forecasters predict Tropical Storm Isaias to become a hurricane by Thursday on a track that could avoid most Gulf Coast LNG export capacity.North American LNG export flows reach 17.63 million Dth on Oct. 7, 2026, led by US Gulf Coast terminals. At a Glance:
Isaias forecast to become hurricane Thursday
Gulf production threat jumps to 50%
Isaias remnants could cool New England

Venture Global Ready for Long-Term Offtakers at Plaquemines LNG - Venture Global has filed a request with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to officially place its 3.6 Bcf/d Plaquemines LNG facility in service and begin commercial operations. Starting commercial operations would allow the company to begin selling cargoes to long-term customers at contractual prices that are often lower than those on the spot market. Venture Global has been selling Plaquemines volumes into the spot market during the prolonged commissioning.

22 Months, ~500 Cargoes Later, Plaquemines LNG Says It’s “Ready” - - Marcellus Drilling News - Well, well, well. Venture Global (VG) has asked the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) for permission to place Phase 1 of its Plaquemines LNG export plant in Louisiana “in service.” In plain English, VG says the plant is finally ready to start shipping LNG to the customers who signed long-term contracts with it, beginning October 31. Never mind that the plant has already shipped at least 417 full cargoes since December 2024 (and probably closer to 500 by now). VG made a killing selling those cargoes on the spot market at sky-high prices. Its contract customers, the folks whose signatures got the plant financed, have been waiting. We’ve called this practice disgusting before, and we haven’t changed our minds.

Port Arthur LNG Commissioning Builds Ahead of 2027 Startup Push - Sempra Infrastructure is advancing commissioning at Port Arthur LNG, with new startup activity bringing the Texas project closer to adding another major source of natural gas demand along the Gulf Coast.  At a Glance:

• Port Arthur startup work broadens
• Port Arthur adds 13 Mt/y capacity
• Feedgas needs rise toward 2 Bcf/d

Freeport LNG Outage Erases Nearly 5 Bcf of Natural Gas Demand in a Week -Freeport LNG has run one train short of its usual appetite for the past week, throttling back US LNG feedgas demand by roughly 0.7 Bcf/d in an outage masked by early-cycle nominations.NGI Entropic Analytics chart shows Freeport LNG feedgas nominations near 1.9 million Dth/d, while final deliveries fell to 1.2 million Dth/d in October.
At a Glance:
Texas terminal operating at 2-train rate
Early-cycle noms drive feedgas gains Friday
Houston, Katy discounts widen

U.S. natural gas prices hold near one-week high as demand forecasts rise - U.S. natural gas futures held near a one-week high on forecasts for more demand over the next two weeks than previously expected and a decline in daily output due to a pipeline problem in Kentucky. Energy traders also noted that prices were supported by an increase in flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants with the expected return of a liquefaction train at Freeport LNG's facility in Texas. Front-month gas futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 1.3 cents, or 0.4%, to $3.048 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), putting the contract on track for its highest close since September 25 for a second day in a row. In a sign the market is not too worried about gas supplies this winter, the premium of futures for December over November fell to a record low of around 28 cents per MMBtu. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states slid to 111.7 billion cubic feet per day (Bft3d) so far in October, down from record highs of 113.3 in both August and September. On a daily basis, output was on track to fall even further to a four-month low of 109.3 Bft3d on Monday due in part to problems with a pipeline in Kentucky. On Friday, Canadian energy company Enbridge's Texas Eastern Transmission (TETCo) unit declared a force majeure due to an unplanned outage north of the Tompkinsville compressor station in Kentucky. TETCo said the estimated time of restoration was unclear. Record output and mild spring weather have allowed energy firms to keep the amount of gas in inventory above the five-year (2021-2025) average since March, reaching a high of 7.7% above normal in April. A hot summer, however, forced energy firms to pull lots of gas out of storage to fuel the power plants needed to keep air conditioners humming, cutting the inventory surplus. About 40% of US power generation comes from gas-fired plants. With the weather still warmer than normal last week, the amount of gas in storage likely slid to 1.8% above normal during the week ended October 2, down from 2.4% above normal in the previous week, according to analyst estimates ahead of Thursday's weekly federal inventory report. Looking forward, meteorologists predicted weather across the country would remain mostly near normal through October 20, which should keep both heating and cooling demand low. LSEG said average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will hold around 106.2 Bft3d this week and next. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday. Average gas flows to the nine large U.S. LNG export plants fell to 16.9 Bft3d so far in October, down from 17.9 Bft3d in September and the monthly record high of 18.8 Bft3d in April. On a daily basis, however, LNG feedgas was on track to rise to a one-week high of 17.6 Bft3d on Monday with the amount of gas flowing to Freeport LNG in Texas expected to rise.

U.S. natural gas prices rise 3% on output drop, storm worries - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 3% to nearly a two-week high on a drop in output due to recent pipeline problems and worries that a Gulf of Mexico storm could cause further supply disruptions. Energy traders also said prices were supported by an expected increase in coming days in gas flows to liquefied natural gas export plants, including Freeport in Texas and Cove Point in Maryland. Front-month gas futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 8.9 cents, or 2.9%, to settle at $3.203 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), their highest close since September 24. In the Gulf of Mexico, the U.S. National Hurricane Center forecast that Tropical Storm Isaias would strengthen into a hurricane on Thursday before hitting the Gulf Coast near the borders of Mississippi, Alabama and Florida late on Friday. Even though storms can boost U.S. gas prices by cutting output along the U.S. Gulf Coast, analysts have noted that such weather is more likely to reduce prices and gas demand by shutting LNG export plants and knocking out power to homes and businesses. About 40% of U.S. power generation comes from gas-fired plants. Most US production comes from shale formations located far from the Gulf Coast like the Marcellus/Utica in Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia and the Permian in West Texas and eastern New Mexico. Just 2%, or 1.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bft3d), of the 118.4 Bft3d of U.S. marketed gas production in 2025 came from the federal offshore Gulf of Mexico, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the US Lower 48 states slid from record highs of 113.3 Bft3d in both August and September to 111.5 Bft3d so far in October due in part to force majeures and other problems on pipelines in Kentucky, Texas, West Virginia and elsewhere in recent weeks. LSEG said average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will slide from 105.4 Bft3d this week to 104.1 Bft3d next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday. Average gas flows to the nine large U.S. LNG export plants fell to 16.9 Bft3d so far in October, down from 17.9 Bft3d in September and the monthly record high of 18.8 Bft3d in April. On a daily basis, however, LNG feedgas was on track to rise to a one-week high of 17.6 Bft3d on Wednesday as flows to Freeport LNG's 2.4-Bft3d plant in Texas were expected to rise. Flows to Freeport had been expected to rise on Monday and Tuesday, but the increase was delayed until Wednesday, according to the latest LSEG data. Energy traders said daily LNG feedgas would rise even further with Berkshire Hathaway Energy's 0.8-Bft3d Cove Point export plant in Maryland expected to return to service in coming days. Cove Point shut around September 19 for a few weeks of annual maintenance.

Nat-Gas Prices Erase Early Gains on Weekly Storage Builds  -- November Nymex natural gas (NGX26) on Thursday closed down -0.035 (-1.09%). Nat-gas prices fell from a 1.5-week high on Thursday and settled lower after weekly nat-gas storage rose more than expected, sparking long liquidation in nat-gas futures. The EIA reported Thursday that nat-gas inventories rose +85 bcf in the week ended October 2, above expectations of +82 bcf. Nat-gas prices added to their losses on Thursday after US weather forecasts turned warmer, potentially reducing heating demand for nat-gas. The Commodity Weather Group said Thursday that forecasts shifted warmer, with above-average temperatures expected across most of the US through October 12. Nat-gas prices initially moved higher on Thursday as the outlook for adverse weather in the US Gulf pushed producers to shut in nat-gas production. As of Thursday, the US shut in about 1.127 billion cubic feet per day, or about 57% of natural gas production in the Gulf in response to Hurricane Isaias forming in the US Gulf. US (lower-48) dry gas production on Thursday was 110.3 bcf/day (+1.8% y/y), according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand on Thursday was 72.2 bcf/day (+0.8% y/y), according to BNEF. Estimated LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals on Thursday were 19.0 bcf/day (+5.5% w/w), according to BNEF. As a positive factor for gas prices, the Edison Electric Institute reported Wednesday that US (lower-48) electricity output in the week ended October 3 rose +3.32% y/y to 83,661 GWh (gigawatt-hours). Also, US electricity output in the 52 weeks ending October 2 rose +3.27% y/y to 4,414,135 GWh. A bearish medium-term factor for nat-gas prices is the market's expectation that a "Super El Niño" will bring warmer-than-normal temperatures to the Northern Hemisphere this fall and winter, reducing heating demand for nat-gas. As a bearish factor, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on August 11 projected that US nat-gas storage levels will swell to 3,985 bcf at the end of October, the highest level in 10 years and 5% above the five-year average. On September 21, the EIA raised its 2027 US dry natural gas production estimate to 116.0 bcf/day from 115.3 bcf/day projected in July. Thursday's weekly EIA report was slightly bearish for nat-gas prices, showing an +85 bcf increase in US nat-gas inventories for the week ended October 2, above expectations of +82 but below the 5-year weekly average of +96 bcf. As of October 2, nat-gas inventories were down -3.9% y/y and +2.0% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling adequate nat-gas supplies. As of October 6, gas storage in Europe was 73% full, compared to the 5-year seasonal average of 88% full for this time of year.

How Long Can Natural Gas Supply Keep Pace as Historic Demand Looms? -A well-supplied market is likely to weigh on US natural gas prices this winter, but comfortable balances could be upended in the years ahead as competition for supply increases, speakers said Wednesday during a webinar co-hosted by NGI and Yes Energy. Henry Hub has traded in a narrow range, with little volatility seen over the summer despite record heat and unprecedented power burn, said NGI’s Leticia Gonzales, managing director of North American natural gas pricing. “Obviously the biggest story that’s driving those lower Henry Hub prices in the face of this record demand has been production,” Gonzales said. Production is up 5% year/year, averaging about 112 Bcf/d since April, according to Entropic Analytics' US Daily Supply & Demand Report.  “We have seen some softening in the forward curve, particularly in the near-term months … Part of that is, of course, because we’ve got robust production,” Gonzales added. “We’re significantly higher year/year and expected to grow as we head into 2027.”She added that storage cushions in the East and Midwest regions are also keeping a lid on forward prices heading into the heating season. NGI’s Forward Look showed Henry Hub for winter 2026/27 trading at $3.390/MMBtu on Wednesday.But Gonzales noted that winter strips for 2027/28 are already pricing about 50 cents higher than those for the coming winter as LNG and power demand are expected to rise.“We’re not necessarily running out of gas, but we could see some tightening as this LNG demand and data center demand starts to grow,” she said. “Going forward, it’s about whether supply can continue to grow fast enough to meet that demand, and also the infrastructure has to keep pace as well.”Gonzales said roughly 8 Bcf/d of US demand could come from data centers alone by 2036, but the outlook is clouded as development plans face increasing public and political opposition across the country.For power markets, “demand growth is the name of the game,” said Yes Energy Product Manager Alex Bennitt during the webinar. “It’s the No. 1 topic in the industry right now … We’ve got data center growth — there’s really just so much going on.”Most grid operators across the country, Bennitt said, are showing major growth over the next five or 10 years. But he agreed with Gonzales on the trajectory of the data center buildout.“Data centers are kind of driving up these demand projections and really this isn’t realized; it’s just looming in the distance,” he said.That means LNG exports are in the driver’s seat when it comes to natural gas demand growth. Gonzales said 2027 could bring the first test of whether production can keep pace with LNG. The Energy Information Administration expects 28 Bcf/d of US liquefaction capacity to be online by 2030. Moreover, output is on track to surpass 30 Bcf/d next decade with eight LNG projects under construction along the Gulf Coast, according to NGI’s North American LNG Export Tracker.“If we start to see cracks in the production and the pace of production, that’s where we could start entering into a phase in the market that we really haven’t seen in quite a while — and that is higher prices that are actually sustained, not due to one-off events, but a consistently higher price environment,” Gonzales said.For now, US storage inventories are 2.4% above the five-year average and on pace to finish the injection season at levels Gonzales said should be sufficient for the heating season. In that case, one of the only near-term catalysts for prices remains weather.A super El Niño weather pattern is expected to bring with it a mild US winter, but Gonzales pointed to last winter as a cautionary tale. December 2025 was warm, but a month later came the historic Winter Storm Fern, which knocked out 18 Bcf/d of domestic production, led to the largest US storage withdrawal on record and sent spot prices across the country to new heights.“I want to caution that while the winter might be warmer overall, it doesn’t mean we’re not going to have a one-off cold event,” Gonzales said. “Whether that event is three days, or whether it’s 10 days, it can really just take a toll on the market” and “change those storage balances.”

Permian Gas Production Pushes Higher | RBN Energy -  Permian production surged to new record highs, averaging 23.7 Bcf/d, with production receipts on El Paso Pipeline rebounding after being reduced the week prior. The high production figures are the result of debottlenecking in the basin. The Gulf Coast Express Expansion began service in mid-June adding 0.57 Bcf/d of additional takeaway capacity for the basin and Hugh Brinson Phase 1 followed at the beginning of September adding 1.7 Bcf/d. Production in September averaged just over 23.5 Bcf/d, up 0.4 Bcf/d month-on month and up nearly 1.6 Bcf/d since Gulf Coast Express came online. See the orange line in chart below showing new highs in Permian supply. We forecast that production will continue to climb, heading towards 24 Bcf/d this winter. Also, work is ongoing on Blackcomb Pipeline, which will add an additional 2.5 Bcf/d of capacity by the end of the year. However, while production growth is boosted from the new takeaway capacity we do not expect it will fully keep pace with this rapid buildout. The basin will remain unconstrained for years to come, especially given further buildout later this decade.

Movin’ On – The Infrastructure That Keeps Permian NGLs Flowing | RBN Energy -The Permian is the country’s largest NGL-producing region, a trend that figures to continue over the next several years. By 2035, the basin is forecast to account for 53% of U.S. NGL production, up from about 44% today. Handling that growth will require a complex network of pipelines, fractionators, and other infrastructure, plus a handful of players adding capacity to ease congestion and provide more routes to market. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at the future of NGL infrastructure in the Permian and where all that additional production will ultimately end up.This is the fourth blog in our series on the outlook for major U.S. producing basins, starting with the largest: the Permian. In our first blog, we discussed the major Permian gas pipeline projects scheduled to come online in 2026 and 2027, how much new capacity they will provide, and what the shift means for Waha prices, Gulf Coast balances and the U.S. natural gas market. In Part 2, we discussed the basin’s long-term gas pipeline projects and the challenges that could arise as that new infrastructure comes online. In our third piece, we discussed the Permian’s biggest natural gas producers and how they might respond to the new gas pipelines planned for the basin. All of that sets the stage for today's blog on NGLs, but let’s add a little background. In the Permian, associated gas and NGLs have long been byproducts of crude oil production. So as oil output rises, the basin’s infrastructure needs to keep up with the gas and NGLs that come along for the ride. Significantly for our topic today, that means a lot of new gas processing plants need to be built, moved or expanded in the areas seeing high gas production growth. Gas processing plants separate NGLs from the gas stream. New additions to the fleet tend to be 275- or 300-MMcf/d cryogenic facilities that can extract a very high percentage of the liquids entrained in the gas stream. From the tailgate of the processing plant, pipelines take the NGLs as a mixed stream called “Y-grade” to fractionation centers where the mixed product is separated into “purity” form — ethane, propane, butanes and other NGL products — before heading to downstream markets, like petrochemical plants and export terminals (purity is a bit of a misnomer since some impurities still exist in the fracked NGLs). Today, we’ll begin by looking at processing and pipeline capacity and we’ll follow up with downstream fractionation and export facilities. From the Permian, recovered NGL production is currently about 3.6 MMb/d and is forecast to reach 4.8 MMb/d by 2030 and 5.4 MMb/d by 2035 (light-green bars in Figure 1 below). These recovered volumes account for the economics of ethane recovery, including ethane rejection, which is when ethane is left in the natural gas stream because recovery is uneconomic. They also reflect contractual agreements, such as minimum volume commitments (MVCs), that can incentivize recovery even when rejection would otherwise be economic. The buildout of natural gas processing has been substantial in recent years, with another 7 Bcf/d of incremental capacity expected to be added across the Permian by 2029, most of that on the Texas side of the Delaware Basin (dark-blue bar sections in Figure 4 below), followed by the Midland Basin (orange bar sections) and the New Mexico side of the Delaware (light-blue bar sections). But that capacity is not necessarily located where gas production is growing fastest. As a result, localized processing constraints can emerge even when Permian-wide capacity appears sufficient. For example, some gas produced on the New Mexico side of the Delaware Basin is processed across the state line in West Texas. Over the past few years, Permian NGL takeaway capacity has seesawed. New pipelines and expansions have added capacity, while conversions to other services have taken some away. The result has been a series of step changes in available Y-grade takeaway. Enterprise Products Partners’ Seminole pipeline system (orange lines in Figure 3 below) is a clear example of that back-and-forth. In 2019, the company converted one of the two pipelines in the Seminole corridor from NGLs to crude oil to meet growing crude-takeaway demand. The two pipelines, known as Red and Blue, run in the same right-of-way. In December 2023, Enterprise converted the Red line back to NGL service. In addition, Enterprise’s conversion of its Chaparral Pipeline (light-green line) from NGLs to refined products removed roughly 135 Mb/d of Y-grade takeaway capacity from the Permian and increased the need for NGL capacity on Seminole. Taken together, the Seminole Red conversion back to NGL service and the Chaparral conversion out of it added a net 15 Mb/d of Y-grade takeaway capacity.That arrangement changed again in December 2025, when Seminole Red returned to crude-oil service as Midland-to-ECHO 2 (see The Boys Are Back in Town). The switch was enabled by Enterprise’s new Bahia NGL Pipeline (dark-green line), which entered service in 2025 with 600 Mb/d of Y-grade capacity. Net, the Seminole switch and the Bahia startup added 450 Mb/d of new takeaway capacity. Bahia moves NGLs from the Midland and Delaware basins to Mont Belvieu, where they can enter Enterprise’s Gulf Coast fractionation system, reducing the need for Seminole to remain in NGL service.In Q3 2024, Targa Resources' 400-Mb/d Daytona Pipeline (purple line) entered service, linking the Permian Basin to the company's Grand Prix NGL system (lavender line), which carries Y-grade on to Mont Belvieu. Grand Prix also reaches into parts of Oklahoma, including the SCOOP/STACK, but this expansion focused on the pipeline leg that receives Y-grade from the Permian.During 2025, ONEOK continued phased expansions of its West Texas NGL system (dark-red lines), increasing its capacity from roughly 515 Mb/d to 740 Mb/d by adding pump stations. The system transports not only Permian Y-grade but also barrels from the Barnett Shale.Phillips 66 acquired EPIC Y-Grade in 2025, adding the system to its integrated NGL transportation, fractionation and export network along the Texas Gulf Coast. Now renamed Coastal Bend, the 885-mile system (magenta lines) transports 175 Mb/d of Y-grade from the Delaware and Midland basins, as well as the Eagle Ford, to the company's fractionation complex in Robstown, TX, near Corpus Christi, and to storage in Markham. The system also extends up the coast to Phillips 66's Sweeny complex. Phillips 66 completed an initial expansion to 225 Mb/d and brought a second phase online in 2026, boosting total throughput to 350 Mb/d. The acquisition built on Phillips 66’s 2023 expansion into the upstream end of the NGL value chain through its acquisition of DCP Midstream, whose assets include gas gathering and processing operations and interests in major NGL takeaway systems. Among them is the Sand Hills Pipeline (pink lines), which transports Permian and Eagle Ford NGLs to fractionation and market centers at Sweeny and Mont Belvieu. Together, the DCP and Coastal Bend transactions have expanded Phillips 66’s reach from Permian gas processing and NGL takeaway through Gulf Coast fractionation, storage and downstream markets. Then there’s BANGL, the aptly named Belvieu Alternative NGLs pipeline. Once a joint venture, BANGL became wholly owned by MPLX in July 2025, when the company acquired the remaining 55% interest in the system from WhiteWater and Diamondback Energy. The pipeline currently has a capacity of about 250 Mb/d, with an expansion to 300 Mb/d expected online in Q4 2026. It includes the 2026 Orla-to-Benedum segment (blue line at top left of map), which connects the system with the core Delaware Basin gathering and processing corridor and allows for more Y-grade volumes moving toward fractionation hubs in Corpus Christi. Barrels move from Benedum to Gardendale on a segment of the Coastal Bend Pipeline (pink-and-blue section) operated as an undivided joint interest (UJI). Then, those barrels go to Sweeney via the Gardendale-to-Sweeney extension (blue line at bottom right of map) placed in service in Q1 2025. The system is ultimately being extended with the Texas City extension (dashed blue line) expected online in 2028. The expansion will help connect Permian NGL supplies with MPLX’s planned Gulf Coast fractionation complex near Marathon Petroleum’s Galveston Bay refinery and the 400-Mb/d LPG export terminal MPLX and ONEOK are developing jointly at Texas City. Targa’s Speedway pipeline (dashed aqua line) is a new 500-mile, 30-inch-diameter Y-grade line from the Permian to Mont Belvieu. It will extend Targa’s integrated NGL network, supplement the existing Grand Prix and Daytona systems, and provide another outlet for rising Permian mixed-NGL production. Speedway is designed for an initial capacity of roughly 500 Mb/d, with expansion capability to about 1 MMb/d. Targa said it expects to finish its work on the line in Q3 2027.Enterprise plans to expand Bahia in Q4 2027, increasing capacity from 600 Mb/d to 1 MMb/d. ExxonMobil later acquired a 40% ownership interest in the system, aligning one of the basin’s largest upstream producers with dedicated downstream takeaway. The planned expansion will be supported by additional pumping and integration with Gulf Coast fractionation and export infrastructure. Also in Q4 2027, Enterprise and ExxonMobil plan a dedicated, roughly 92-mile, 600-Mb/d extension linking ExxonMobil’s Cowboy processing complex in Eddy County, NM, directly to Bahia called — you guessed it — the Cowboy Connector (dashed yellow line). The project is intended to secure takeaway from New Mexico growth areas and connect ExxonMobil’s upstream and processing operations with Enterprise’s Mont Belvieu value chain.Now, with takeaway capacity shifting, the picture has changed. Permian NGL overall takeaway capacity was very tight in 2024 but has since loosened with the startup of Targa’s Daytona and Enterprise’s Bahia pipelines. New Y-grade pipelines have materially improved the Permian’s ability to move mixed NGLs to the Gulf Coast. However, the added takeaway shifts attention to the next link in the value chain: fractionation and exports. Once Y-grade reaches Mont Belvieu, Corpus Christi, Sweeney, or other Gulf Coast fractionation hubs, it’s separated into purity products that are then stored, shipped to domestic end markets for consumption, or exported. As a result, y-grade pipeline additions do not eliminate infrastructure risk but they shift part of the focus from basin takeaway to downstream fractionation capacity and export capacity — and that will be the focus of the next blog in this series.

Cracking the Code – What 2026’s Record Crack Spreads Tell Us About Refining Economics | RBN Energy -Crude oil may get most of the headlines, but the fuels made from it have delivered some of the market’s biggest surprises of 2026. Gasoline and diesel crack spreads have shattered previous records, with diesel’s premium over crude climbing above $100/bbl and helping propel the 3-2-1 crack spread to unprecedented heights. Those spreads reveal something that crude prices alone cannot: how much buyers are willing to pay for finished fuels relative to the oil used to produce them. That in turn provides insight into what’s driving the sky-high prices consumers are currently paying. With supply disruptions, strained trade flows and renewable-fuel compliance costs all shaping this year’s extraordinary numbers, in today’s RBN blog we’ll look at what goes into a crack spread as well as what we can learn from it and, at the end, we’ll give you the model! A crack spread measures the difference between the value of refined products and the cost of crude oil. Its name comes from the “cracking” process in refineries, where larger hydrocarbon molecules are broken into smaller ones used in transportation fuels and other products. The individual gasoline and diesel cracks compare each product’s price with a crude benchmark. The 3-2-1 crack spread, which we first detailed in Money For Nothing, combines them, assuming three barrels of crude yield two barrels of gasoline and one barrel of diesel. That hypothetical product mix provides a convenient rule of thumb for tracking relative refining economics.The result is a gross-margin indicator, not a measure of a refinery’s take-home profit. Refiners incur energy, labor, maintenance, transportation and renewable-fuel compliance costs. They also process different crude grades and produce a much broader slate of products, with yields that depend on their equipment and operating choices. Even the benchmark calculation can vary substantially. Different gasoline formulations, pricing locations and crude grades produce significantly different spreads. To see why that matters, let’s start with the inputs used in our daily Chart Toppers report.Think about the choices at the pump: regular and premium gasoline have different octane ratings and prices. Wholesale markets make additional distinctions among formulations, delivery locations and timing. There is consequently more than one gasoline price, and more than one gasoline crack spread. In Chart Toppers, we use a Gulf Coast conventional gasoline price market. In our example below (using data from Friday, September 25), that price is 365 cents per gallon.But before we compare gasoline with crude, we need to put both prices in the same units. Crude is quoted in dollars per barrel, while this gasoline benchmark is quoted in cents per gallon. With 42 gallons in a barrel, the conversion is: [365 cents/gal × 42 gal/bbl ÷ 100 = $153.30/bbl ]  We then subtract the crude price. With prompt WTI settling that Friday at $92.41/bbl, the gasoline crack is: [ $153.30/bbl − $92.41/bbl = $60.89/bbl ] A barrel of benchmark Gulf Coast gasoline was therefore worth about $61 more than a barrel of WTI, before refining and other costs. Per gallon, that difference was about $1.45.How can gasoline prices remain elevated even when crude retreats? Finished gasoline has its own supply-and-demand balance determined in the global market, which we described recently in For the Love of Money. If gasoline becomes more valuable relative to crude, the crack can widen despite an increase in the feedstock price. A wider spread strengthens the incentive to produce gasoline, although it does not establish how much of that premium becomes refinery profit.For diesel, since we’re using a Gulf Coast gasoline price, we also use a Gulf Coast ULSD (ultra-low-sulfur diesel) benchmark. On September 25, that price was 457 cents per gallon. Applying the same conversion gives us: [ 457 cents/gal × 42 gal/bbl ÷ 100 = $191.94/bbl  ]Subtracting WTI’s $92.41/bbl settlement produces the diesel crack: [ $191.94 /bbl − $92.41/bbl = $99.53/bbl ] That means a barrel of benchmark Gulf Coast diesel was worth nearly $100 more than a barrel of WTI. Its premium over crude exceeded gasoline’s by roughly $39/bbl, highlighting diesel’s much stronger relative value, which we detailed in Basket Case. This distinction matters for refining incentives. A combined crack spread can tell us that the hypothetical product barrel is valuable, but the individual cracks show where that value is concentrated. In this example, diesel offered the stronger incentive to increase production where refinery equipment and operating constraints allowed.A refiner doesn’t make 100% gasoline or 100% diesel. It’s a mix. For that, we can combine the two products. The 3-2-1 calculation adds the value of two gasoline barrels (green-shaded row in Figure 1 below) and one diesel barrel (purple-shaded row), subtracts the cost of three crude barrels (black-shaded row) and divides the result by three. That gives us a 3-2-1 crack spread of $73.77/bbl. The result represents the theoretical value of that product mix above the crude input cost, per barrel of crude processed.Figure 1. RBN Crack Spread Model.  Download the spreadsheet used to generate this table. We can reach the same answer by taking a weighted average of the individual cracks: two-thirds gasoline and one-third diesel. Although gasoline receives twice the weight, diesel’s nearly $100/bbl crack pulled the combined spread well above the gasoline crack. These measures give us complementary views of the market. The individual cracks identify which products are driving value, while the 3-2-1 provides a consistent framework for following the combined trend. We should note that sustained higher diesel cracks have prompted some refiners to shift their slates to produce more diesel, so many analysts may choose to track a 2-1-1 crack spread (two barrels of crude to produce one barrel of gasoline and one barrel of diesel). But, since crack spreads are used to track broad trends rather than specific refinery performance, what you learn doing it either way is largely similar.Using a historical series of the prices discussed here, gasoline, diesel and the combined 3-2-1 crack have all reached record highs in 2026, surpassing their previous peaks by substantial margins.As shown in Figure 2 below, the highest gasoline crack on record prior to 2026 was $64.94/bbl set on September 28, 2005 (when the tag-team Katrina and Rita hurricanes, KO’d a huge swath of Gulf Coast refining capacity). The highest diesel crack was $108.53/bbl set on April 28, 2022 (after Russia invaded Ukraine), and the highest 3-2-1 crack spread was $64.58/bbl set on April 20, 2020 (when the price of WTI went negative for a day!). Even among those monumental events, 2026 changed the game, with refined products margins reaching record highs on several occasions. The gasoline crack soared to $68.74/bbl on September 23. The diesel crack hit $113.48/bbl on September 15, and the 3-2-1 crack spread topped out at $80.63/bbl on September 23.Let’s look next at how the 3-2-1 crack spread has changed over time. Back in 2010 (and for several years prior), there was a surplus of refining capacity in the U.S. and the crack spread was low, averaging only around $10/bbl. In 2011, Midcontinent crude oil supplies were increasing due to Bakken production and Canadian imports, which resulted in a surplus of crude at the Cushing, OK, storage hub and drove down the WTI price. Gasoline and diesel prices held up, so the crack spread averaged $30/bbl in 2011 before peaking at $46/bbl in 2012.  New pipelines were built from Cushing to the Gulf Coast, so WTI at Cushing came back in line with crude prices in the rest of the country; the crack spread fell to $17/bbl in late 2014. We entered what we called the “Summer of Refinery Love” in 2015, aka when very low crude oil prices caused the crack spread to once again return to $25/bbl. That didn’t last long, however, and the crack spread was back to $15/bbl the following year before it normalized at $20/bbl right before Hurricane Harvey hit in August 2017. The storm led to refinery outages and shortages of gasoline and diesel, causing the crack spread to soar to $37/bbl at the end of August.As we all know, COVID arrived in force in early 2020 and demand for transportation fuels plummeted, dragging the crack spread down to less than $0.50/bbl on March 23. However, on April 20, 2020 — the day the front-month WTI price turned negative and the industry was flipped on its head for a day — crack spreads rose to $65/bbl before settling around the $9/bbl range for the remainder of the year. It soared back to the $60-$65/bbl range in mid-2022 amid sanctions against Russia, severe global refining capacity constraints and post-pandemic demand spikes. The 3-2-1 crack spread (gray line in Figure 3 below) moved steadily lower over the next few years but has surged in 2026, from an average of just under $21/bbl in January to just under $71/bbl in September before dipping in early October. The diesel crack (orange line in Figure 3) posted the largest dollar increase, skyrocketing to a record high on September 16 of $113.48/bbl, exceeding its pre-2026 record by nearly $5/bbl and far surpassing the gasoline crack spread (blue line). Meanwhile, the 3-2-1 crack spread climbed roughly 25% above its pre-2026 high. This year’s records show how much finished-product values have increased relative to crude, but explaining that gap requires looking at the constraints on producing and delivering those fuels.Diesel’s extraordinary strength reflects a squeeze on both production and trade. As discussed in Basket Case, damage to Middle Eastern refineries and disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have reduced available product supplies. Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and export infrastructure, along with Russia’s diesel export restrictions, have added pressure. Those disruptions have intensified competition for replacement barrels, drawing overseas buyers toward the U.S. Gulf Coast. U.S. refiners have had limited room to respond: utilization reached 98% in late August, yet strong exports continued to pull barrels from a market with unusually low inventories.As mentioned above, remember that the crack spread is not a measure of refiner profitability. Each refinery is different and has a multitude of feedstock and product mix considerations that are simplified away by the crack spread. The crack spread can vary significantly by region, so its best used to index market fluctuations rather than try to equate it to any kind of refining margin. Beyond the individual refinery considerations that make the crack spread a refinery-specific metric, one major factor often explains some of the gap between crude prices and refined product prices in the U.S. — compliance costs. Renewable-fuel compliance costs affect the relationship between headline cracks and refinery economics. Refiners and other obligated parties must meet Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) requirements, with Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) used to demonstrate compliance. RIN costs have shot higher this year (see Runaway) and the reports discussed here estimate renewable volume obligation (RVO) costs at approximately $15/bbl in early September. That is a meaningful expense outside the simple product-minus-crude calculation.As shown at the right side of Figure 4 below, subtracting a $15/bbl compliance allowance (blue line) from a $100/bbl diesel crack (green line) leaves roughly $85/bbl (red line) before operating and other costs – which is still a huge spread. The appropriate adjustment depends on the obligation and calculation being examined, but the broader point holds: Compliance costs reduce the apparent margin, while the remaining spread can still be exceptional.Showing both series helps distinguish the headline price signal from the margin remaining after compliance expenses.  A sustained retreat in product prices will depend on the product balance improving. Recovering overseas refinery output and more reliable shipping would increase available supplies and reduce competition for replacement cargoes. If demand were to soften pressure on production could ease and if we were able to rebuild inventories it could provide a cushion against subsequent disruptions. Lower RVO requirements and RIN costs could also improve refiners’ net economics relative to the headline spread, although they would not resolve physical shortages on their own.In the near term, exceptionally strong diesel cracks provide a compelling incentive to sustain production where possible. That could limit the decline in runs during fall maintenance (see Turn Around), but scheduled work, equipment constraints and operating reliability still determine how much refiners can deliver.This brings us back to why crack spreads have been so revealing in 2026. Record spreads show the value buyers place on available finished fuels, with diesel providing an especially powerful lift to the combined barrel. The Chart Toppers example shows why interpreting that signal starts with understanding its benchmarks and costs. As supplies recover, or face further disruption, the crack spread will remain a useful way to track refining incentives and product-market pressure.

The Hidden Tradeoffs of a U.S. Diesel Export Ban  -With diesel prices at record highs, restricting U.S. diesel exports has an obvious appeal. Keep more American-made diesel at home, increase domestic supply, and take some pressure off farmers, truckers, construction companies, and ultimately consumers. President Donald Trump endorsed the idea this week, saying, “I’ve said let’s not send out the diesel.” The administration is now examining possible restrictions as farm-state lawmakers respond to soaring fuel costs. The United States is the world’s largest diesel exporter, with exports averaging about 1.5 million barrels per day so far this year. A restriction could initially lower diesel prices in parts of the United States, particularly along the Gulf Coast where much of the exported fuel is produced. But an export ban does not create another barrel of diesel. It changes where the existing barrels can go. In a tightly interconnected global market, that means some of the costs pushed overseas can eventually find their way back to American consumers. Few industries have more reason to want lower diesel prices than agriculture. Diesel powers tractors, combines, irrigation equipment, and the trucks that move crops from farms to processors and markets. The current price spike has arrived during harvest season, making it particularly painful in agricultural states. That pressure has helped generate calls from farm-state Republicans for limits on diesel exports. The immediate economic argument is straightforward. If the United States exports 1.5 million barrels per day and suddenly keeps some of those barrels at home, domestic inventories should rise. All else being equal, that would put downward pressure on U.S. diesel prices.   The United States exported about 1.27 million barrels per day of distillate fuel in 2025. Mexico was the largest destination at roughly 220,000 barrels per day, followed by countries including Chile and Brazil. Those exports have risen this year as American refiners have helped replace supplies lost from Russia and the Middle East. If those barrels disappear from international markets, foreign diesel prices would likely rise further. That may initially sound like someone else’s problem. But Americans buy an enormous amount of food and other goods produced overseas, and diesel is embedded in the cost of producing and transporting many of them.Mexico is a particularly good example. It is both the largest foreign buyer of U.S. diesel and the largest supplier of agricultural products to the United States. In 2025, the United States imported $43.8 billion in agricultural products from Mexico, representing about 21% of total U.S. agricultural imports. Mexico is especially important for fruits and vegetables and supplies roughly one-third of U.S. horticultural imports. Now consider what happens if Mexico suddenly has to replace U.S. diesel at substantially higher world-market prices. Farmers pay more to operate equipment. Truckers pay more to move produce. Food processors and distributors face higher transportation costs. Some of those additional costs can ultimately show up in the prices Americans pay for imported food.The consequences can become larger if high fuel and fertilizer prices persist long enough to alter planting decisions. The Food and Agriculture Organization has already warned that elevated energy and fertilizer costs associated with the current Middle East disruptions can influence how much farmers plant and how much fertilizer they use. FAO has cautioned that reduced input use can mean lower yields and tighter food supplies in subsequent harvests.That does not mean a U.S. diesel export ban would suddenly cause global food shortages. But it illustrates why pushing a fuel shortage outside U.S. borders does not completely insulate Americans from its consequences. Higher agricultural costs abroad can return through import prices, particularly for products the United States cannot easily replace domestically during certain seasons.There is another complication that may be even more important.U.S. refineries do not produce only the amount of diesel Americans consume. Gulf Coast refineries in particular have been built around access to international markets. They process crude oil into a slate of products that includes gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, propane, and other petroleum products, then sell those products into the markets offering the best outlets.If diesel exports are suddenly prohibited, those refiners cannot simply redirect 1.5 million barrels per day anywhere they choose. Domestic demand cannot absorb all of it, and pipeline and storage capacity limit how much Gulf Coast diesel can be moved quickly to other parts of the country.S&P Global Energy CERA modeled a complete export ban from October through December. Its analysts estimated that U.S. refiners would have to absorb or eliminate about 1.48 million barrels per day of expected exports. Once commercially usable storage filled, they estimated refiners might have to cut crude processing by roughly 1.9 million barrels per day, or about 12% of total U.S. refinery throughput. That would have impacts well beyond diesel. A refinery cannot cut crude throughput by 12% and continue producing the same amount of gasoline and jet fuel. Lower refinery runs mean less production of all those products. Thus, a policy intended to reduce diesel prices could eventually tighten supplies of gasoline and jet fuel as well, putting upward pressure on those prices.Trump acknowledged that relationship when discussing the proposal, noting that restricting diesel exports could also affect gasoline because refinery products are part of the same production flow. This creates an unusual domestic conflict. Farmers understandably want relief from extraordinarily high diesel prices. Cheaper fuel reduces the cost of planting, harvesting, and transporting crops. Farm-state lawmakers therefore have a strong incentive to find ways to increase domestic diesel availability, particularly while harvest is underway. Refiners have almost the opposite incentive. Export markets allow them to operate at high utilization rates and sell the diesel that exceeds domestic demand. Closing those outlets could rapidly depress Gulf Coast refining margins and eventually cause refiners to reduce production.The policy question is whether lowering the cost for one sector creates larger costs elsewhere in the economy.The larger context is that the world is genuinely short of diesel. Russian refining and exports have been sharply reduced by the war in Ukraine, while Middle Eastern refinery disruptions and constrained shipping have removed additional supply. U.S. diesel inventories have fallen to extraordinarily low seasonal levels, and industry analysts expect the global shortage to persist into 2027. American refiners have responded to those price signals by running hard and increasing exports. That is one reason U.S. diesel exports have risen this year. Restricting exports could redirect some of that supply domestically, but it cannot repair damaged Russian or Middle Eastern refineries.Instead, the shortage would become more geographically concentrated.Foreign farmers, manufacturers, and transportation companies would pay more. Some of those costs would remain overseas. Others would return to Americans through higher prices for imported food and manufactured goods. And if U.S. refiners eventually reduce crude runs because they cannot economically place their diesel output, domestic gasoline and jet-fuel supplies could also tighten.A diesel export restriction could provide real short-term relief for some U.S. diesel consumers. That benefit should not simply be dismissed, especially with farmers and truckers facing historically high fuel costs.But there are no free barrels.Keeping diesel inside the United States would mean fewer barrels elsewhere. Because the United States is now the world’s largest diesel exporter, removing that supply from an already tight global market would have significant consequences. Some of those consequences would eventually make their way back to American households through food prices, imported goods, and potentially lower domestic refinery production.The policy would not eliminate the global diesel shortage. It would change who feels it first, and how the costs eventually work their way through the economy.

LNG Canada Feedgas, Cargo Loadings Recover as Flaring Eases -  LNG Canada rebounded from a July slowdown in August, lifting feedgas intake and cargo loadings while reducing the volume of natural gas flared even as unplanned flaring events became more frequent. At a Glance:

• August feedgas receipts rebound sharply
• Unplanned flare events increase
• Station 2 prices weaken further

Altamira LNG Outage Interrupts Mexico Exports, US Feedgas Demand -  New Fortress Energy’s (NFE) Mexican LNG facility was knocked offline, interrupting production at the country’s first operating export terminal as the company works through a broader restructuring of its business.NGI’s Agua Dulce daily natural gas price chart shows prices near $2-$4/MMBtu for most of October 2025 through October 2026, with a sharp spike above $14/MMBtu in late January 2026. At a Glance:
Fast LNG restart targeted fourth quarter
September exports fall to 0.024 Mt
Agua Dulce basis discount widens

LNG Alliance Plans Second Mexico LNG Project Tapping US Natural Gas Supply -An affiliate of Singapore’s LNG Alliance is seeking US Department of Energy (DOE) permission to export US natural gas to a planned LNG export facility south of the border in the Port of Matamoros, in Tamaulipas.NGI's Agua Dulce daily natural gas prices spiked above $14/MMBtu in January 2026 before stabilizing near $2-$3/MMBtu through early October. At a Glance:
Bravo LNG targets 6 Mt/y capacity
Sur de Texas-Tuxpan supplies feedgas
Project requires new subsea lateral

Black Cat – In Mexico, an Esentia Gas Pipeline Deal Puts a Spotlight on the Gato Negro LNG Project | RBN Energy -  A natural gas pipeline deal that would give Esentia Energy a complete, start-to-finish link between the Permian Basin and Mexico’s Pacific Coast is highlighting a heretofore under-the-radar LNG project being planned at the end of that now-1,400-mile pipeline system. Gato Negro LNG (Spanish for black cat), a proposed 9-MMtpa (1.2 Bcf/d) export facility in Manzanillo slated to come online in the early 2030s, would be yet another major consumer of Permian gas and provide direct access to all-important Asia-Pacific LNG markets. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss Esentia’s purchase of a TC Energy gas pipeline in west-central Mexico and the plan by other investors to build what would be one of Mexico’s largest midstream projects ever.For a few years now, western Mexico has been viewed by many as a plausible — albeit complicated — place to pipe Permian-sourced gas, liquefy it into LNG, and ship it to Asia-Pacific buyers. Most important, it takes only 10 to 12 days for an LNG carrier to reach Asia from Mexico’s west coast — half the time involved in moving one from the U.S. Gulf Coast through the Panama Canal and on to Asia and less than one-third the time needed to send an LNG carrier around the Cape of Good Hope. And, as they say, time is money.But as another saying goes, if it were easy, everyone would do it. Developing large midstream projects south of the border is, um, challenging, to say the least. Securing pipeline rights-of-way can be a nightmare, and long-haul pipeline projects often require strategic partnerships or long-term capacity agreements with state entities like Mexico’s Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE). Constructing pipelines can be problematic too — some parts of the country are controlled or contested by organized crime, forcing developers to invest heavily in private security.Currently, there is one semi-operational LNG export terminal on the west coast of Mexico: the 3.25-MMtpa (440 MMcf/d) Energía Costa Azul (ECA; blue diamond in Figure 1 below) Phase 1 in Ensenada, Baja California state, which is co-owned by Sempra Infrastructure, with an 83.4% controlling interest, and TotalEnergies, with a 16.6% stake. (We say semi-operational because while the project produced its first LNG in June and sent out a single shipment in July, it has since been taken offline for repairs slated to be finished in Q4 2026.) Sempra and TotalEnergies also are considering a possible 12-MMtpa (1.2-Bcf/d) Phase 2 at the ECA site but have not reached a final investment decision (FID) to date.At least three other Mexican west coast projects also remain on the drawing board, all of them still pre-FID:

• Mexico Pacific Ltd.’s 15-MMtpa (2 Bcf/d) Saguaro Energía LNG project in Puerto Libertad (red checkered diamond; Sonora state).
• LNG Alliance’s 7.2-MMtpa (960 MMcf/d) Amigo LNG in the Port of Guaymas (green checkered diamond; Sonora state).
• The Gato Negro LNG project in Manzanillo (black checkered diamond; Colima state), which is a focus of today’s blog.

Before we get to Gato Negro LNG, though, let’s look at Esentia Energy’s recently announced $400 million acquisition of TC Energy’s Guadalajara-Manzanillo Pipeline (green line in Figure 1 above), a 194-mile bidirectional connection between the inland city of Guadalajara and the coastal city of Manzanillo. The pipeline, which came online in 2011 and consists of a roughly 3-mile segment with capacity of about 500 MMcf/d and a 191-mile segment with capacity of about 360 MMcf/d, was originally built to transport gas north from the KMS LNG Terminal at Manzanillo, which started up in 2012 and can regasify up to 500 MMcf/d of imported LNG. The terminal is still operable, but is used only occasionally now that several large pipeline systems have been built to transport gas from West Texas into Mexico.Over the past several years, Esentia — formerly called Fermaca Enterprises and now majority-owned by Swiss-based private-equity firm Partners Group — has developed or co-developed several new pipelines between Waha and Guadalajara that move large volumes of Permian gas south into west-central Mexico. (The chain of pipes is collectively known as “the Wahalajara system.” Esentia’s holdings on the system include:

• A 50% stake in the 640-MMcf/d Roadrunner Pipeline (light blue line), which runs about 200 miles from the Waha Hub to a crossing of the Rio Grande near San Elizario, TX. (ONEOK owns the other half and operates the pipeline.)
• The 239-mile, 950-MMcf/d Tarahumara Pipeline (purple line), which interconnects with Roadrunner and other pipelines at the U.S./Mexico border and runs south through Chihuahua state to El Encino. Adding compression could boost the pipe’s capacity to 1.1 Bcf/d.
• The 1.6-Bcf/d El Encino-La Laguna Pipeline (hot pink line), which receives gas from Tarahumara (and Sempra Infrastructure’s Ojinaga-El Encino Pipeline) at El Encino and moves it 286 miles south to La Laguna in Durango state.
• The 278-mile La Laguna-Aguascalientes Pipeline (orange line), which picks up where El Encino-La Laguna left off, moving up to 1.3 Bcf/d of gas farther south to Aguascalientes state.
• The 235-mile,  approximately 1.1-Bcf/d Villa de Reyes-Aguascalientes-Guadalajara Pipeline (yellow line), which begins in Villa de Reyes (about 100 miles east of Aguascalientes) in San Luis Potosi state, where it receives gas from the Los Ramones pipeline system, and runs west through Aguascalientes. There it gets more gas from the La Laguna-Aguascalientes Pipeline and continues to Guadalajara.

Esentia Energy’s pending acquisition of the Guadalajara-Manzanillo Pipeline (again, green line in Figure 1) would give the company the last link in a chain of connecting pipelines that together — for the first time — would enable gas to flow along an integrated system from the Waha Hub to Mexico’s west coast. In announcing the deal, Esentia CEO Daniel Bustos said, “The acquisition would expand Esentia’s ability to serve existing and prospective customers within the combined system’s area of influence, including demand from power generation, industrial customers and potential LNG-related projects, and help reinforce Esentia’s position as one of Mexico’s leading natural gas transportation platforms.”Esentia Energy has also separately disclosed it has begun the construction of the first of several planned compression additions that will expand the overall system’s gas-carrying capacity by several hundred million cubic feet per day.All or part of that expanded capacity could be employed by the proposed Gato Negro LNG project being planned by a group of investors led by Mexican entrepreneurs Carlos Camacho and Emilio Fuentes. The current plan calls for the project to be developed in three 3-MMtpa (400 MMcf/d) phases, with the first phase beginning commercial operation as soon as 2030-31 and the second and third phases following over the next two or three years. The Gato Negro LNG team has already secured U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) approval for exporting U.S.-sourced natural gas to countries with which the U.S. has a Free Trade Agreement (FTA).The development group has applied for similar approval for exports to “non-FTA” countries and hopes to receive that soon; it expects to reach FID on the Gato Negro LNG project in 2027 and start construction on Phase 1 soon thereafter. The LNG export terminal will be built at a greenfield site near the existing KMS LNG Terminal.It’s too soon to say if the Gato Negro LNG project will encounter the same bad luck — get it? black cat? — that has set back some other LNG export projects on Mexico’s west coast, or whether the new ability of the project’s developer to secure its gas delivery needs from a primary provider (Esentia and its chain of pipelines from the Permian to Manzanillo) will make things easier and cheaper. What we can say is that straight-shot LNG deliveries from Mexico’s west coast to Asia would likely provide an economic advantage; that dealing with one pipeline owner would seem to be easier than dealing with two or more; and that LNG prices indexed to Waha sound mighty appealing.

YPF Targets Late-November FID for 12 Mt/y Argentina LNG Project- Argentina’s state energy company YPF has narrowed the timeline for a final investment decision (FID) on its proposed Argentina LNG project to late November, as US financing and contractors deepen their exposure to the Vaca Muerta Shale. At a Glance:

• Startup targeted around 2030
• Vaca Muerta gas underpins project
• Eni, XRG share upstream interests

Baker Hughes Signs Deals to Boost Venezuela’s Natural Gas, LNG Sector - US oilfield services giant Baker Hughes has entered into two strategic agreements aimed at revitalizing Venezuela’s natural gas infrastructure, bolstering supply and potentially paving the way for the nation’s first LNG exports.NGI chart showing annual LNG project final investment decisions by region from 2015 through 2026, measured in Bcm/year. North America dominates LNG FIDs in 2025, pushing global approved capacity above 100 Bcm/year, according to International Energy Agency data. At a Glance:
PDVSA targets stronger domestic gas supply
Alliance plans open-access midstream infrastructure
Power generation drives near-term gas needs

Norway’s Hammerfest LNG Project Still on Track After ‘Unforeseen Issues’ Inflate Costs -Equinor on Wednesday again said it would cost more than expected to extend the life of its Hammerfest LNG export facility in Norway, pushing the cost estimate up to about $2.76 billion, but saying the project remains on track to be completed on time. At a Glance:

• Costs up by about $760 million
• Challenging conditions raise costs
• Project to maintain exports beyond 2030

European Natural Gas Prices Defy Rebound in Middle Eastern LNG Shipments -A look at the global natural gas and LNG markets by the numbers. NGI's five-day LNG market statistics through Oct. 8, 2026, compare Henry Hub, TTF, JKM futures, US feedgas, European storage and shipping costs.

• 1.13 Mt: LNG moving through the Strait of Hormuz climbed to 1.13 Mt in September, according to Kpler data, marking a 13% increase from 1 Mt in August. September’s volumes were the highest monthly total since transits collapsed in March. Volumes are still down 84% from the 6.90 Mt/month average in the 12 months through February, and 83% lower than the 6.51 Mt in September 2025. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) drove the gain, with transits up 42% month over month to 0.44 Mt. Qatari volumes held flat at 0.69 Mt, or about 11% of their 6.27 Mt/month pre-March average.

Hazy Shade of Winter – EU to Miss Overall Natural Gas Storage Target, Mostly Due to German Shortfall | RBN Energy -- As summer has progressed into fall, the trade press has become increasingly skeptical about whether  Europe can adequately replenish its underground natural gas reserves in the wake of a colder-than-expected winter, which was followed by the loss of LNG supply due to the Persian Gulf conflict. The European gas year started on October 1 and European Union (EU) underground gas storage facilities are just over 70% full and growing slowly, to the extent that Europe cannot meet its storage targets. In today’s RBN blog, we explain why Europe, and Germany specifically, finds itself in a precarious situation and look at what might be done.  First, the statistics on overall EU gas storage are striking but do not tell the full story. The shortage resides primarily with Germany, which boasts 22% of the EU’s total gas storage capacity but where gas stocks are only 59% full. Removing Germany’s storage capacity from the EU total shows that storage levels across the remaining 26 nations are 80% full, which is not immediately concerning. (As we noted in Out of Gas, the EU aims to have inventories 90% full by November 1 each year. The target was established in 2022 in response to the Russian gas crisis and the extremely low inventories of 2021. Because of high costs and market constraints, the EU decided in April to relax its November 1 target to 80%.) However, Germany’s storage position remains delicate, with storage levels since April (red line in Figure 1 below) well below the previous year (blue line) and the normal range from October 2018 to September 2021 (gray-shaded area), the last full gas years before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022.How did Germany find itself in this position (and what can be done)? Given the magnitude of the shortfall, there are several factors at play. First, let’s take a look at the history of gas supply into Germany since January 2022. Following the invasion of Ukraine, Germany made a concerted effort to stop pipeline deliveries of Russian gas (green line in Figure 2 below) and equip itself with LNG import facilities in the form of floating storage and regasification units (FSRUs), of which four are now located on Germany’s coast. Despite the increase in LNG imports from March 2023 (red line), it is clear that LNG can only replace a small percentage of the lost Russian pipeline gas volumes. (We should note that German utility Uniper, which had been the country’s biggest importer of Russian gas, was nationalized in 2022 after facing severe financial pressure. After nationalization, Uniper faced tighter financial discipline, limiting its capital flexibility while the company rebuilt its financial position. Germany initiated a plan to sell down its 99% stake in Uniper in May.) Another reason for the shortfall is the Persian Gulf conflict, in which Qatari LNG deliveries into Asia — its main market — have been replaced by LNG cargoes shipped from the U.S., pulling U.S.-sourced volumes away from Europe. (U.S. LNG exports and destination markets are tracked in our weekly LNG Voyager report.) The reason for this change in delivery pattern is that Asian LNG buyers have been prepared to outbid European buyers for cargoes. Remarkably, this has incentivized German LNG buyers such as SEFE (aka Securing Energy for Europe) and RWE to sell LNG cargoes from their Atlantic sources to buyers East of Suez, ignoring German storage needs. Germany has since ordered SEFE to procure and store 8 terawatt-hours (TWh) of natural gas by December 15. (As we explained in Sisters Are Doin’ It For Themselves, utilities like RWE are increasingly becoming traders in their own right.)QatarEnergy, too, has been busy buying cargoes using some of its now-idled fleet of LNG carriers to keep its customers whole, especially where cargo cancellations are not excused by force majeure. These events lend testimony to the evolution of LNG as a commodity, whereby the marginal cargo is free to search out the highest price, and whose price itself is determined by supply-and-demand perceptions.The final nail in the coffin for gas storage replenishment in Germany is the absence of any economic incentive to store gas. European Title Transfer Facility (TTF) forward prices (dashed portion of orange line in Figure 4 below) — about even with the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM; dark-blue line) and well above the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub (light-blue line) — do not justify purchasing gas for injection into storage and later withdrawal. The reason for the forward market’s softness in the face of reduced gas storage volumes and increasing winter demand might be that traders and gas buyers are pricing in a cessation of Persian Gulf hostilities, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a rapid resumption of Qatari and Abu Dhabi LNG output. However, none of these events can rectify Germany’s storage problem on their own.So how will Germany manage its gas storage volumes as winter approaches? Figure 1 above suggests that Germany will enter this winter with less gas in storage than it did in 2025. As gas demands for space heating are at their highest in January and February, it is likely that gas utilities will try to reduce gas withdrawals as much as possible early in winter. This will lead to fuel switching and the use of interruptible gas contracts to moderate demand during Q4 2026.  Germany is also monitoring its demand for gas, especially in the industrial sector. Industrial demand this year (green bars in Figure 4 below) has been about even with 2025 (red bars) but has trailed 2024 (blue bars) for several months and has been far below the 2018-21 average (purple bars) every month this year. That may not be a deliberate choice to preserve stocks, however. Instead, demand remains depressed because Germany’s energy-intensive industries — including chemicals, metals and glass — continue to operate well below pre-energy-crisis levels amid high energy costs and weak manufacturing activity. That industrial weakness is effectively providing a demand-side buffer, reducing storage withdrawals and Germany’s overall call on pipeline gas and LNG imports. Weatherwise, the current strong El Niño is expected to bring a warmer and wetter winter than in recent years. Although mild weather may reduce gas demand, other, and near-term, weather factors can have the opposite effect. This applies especially to the dunkelflauten, or the “dark doldrums,” a phenomenon comprised of periods of low sunshine and reduced wind energy. These periods increasingly influence the German power market and reinforce the need for firm generating capacity, rather than variable renewable energy. These events, which occur on average more frequently than every three days, last on average for over 12 hours and increase power market price volatility as well as the need for unforeseen increases in gas-fired power. In the longer term, the use of battery storage and the continuing adoption of heat pumps for domestic use (nearly 1.1 million added between 2023-25) will help to reduce the extreme effects of weather variation. The structural nature of Germany’s gas shortfall means that concerns over gas shortages will be a recurring phenomenon until major enhancements can be made in replenishing gas storage volumes via the addition of further LNG import infrastructure. To this end, Hanseatic Energy Hub is developing a land-based LNG import terminal in Stade to import 1.29 Bcf/d. That facility is due online in 2029, and a second facility at Brunsbüttel to supply up to 0.9 Bcf/d is under construction and due for startup in 2027. For the longer term, the big question is whether (and to what extent) Russian pipeline gas might be restored to supply Europe. If this takes place, Germany will be the major target market and recommissioning of the damaged Nord Stream pipelines could provide significant gas volumes. In the meantime, Germany, thanks to its past reliance on Russian gas, will continue to suffer gas supply risk, but with that uncertainty manifesting itself in the gas prices that all EU gas users will have to pay.

Europe Must Top Record LNG Imports This Winter to Protect Storage, GIE Warns - European buyers are expected to raise competition for US LNG this winter, as Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) warned the latest winter supply outlook showed volumes would have to top last winter’s record imports to keep storage from running short. EU natural gas storage was 73.0% full at 826.26 TWh on Oct. 6, 2026, trailing the five-year average by 169.1 TWh, according to NGI data. At a Glance:

• Tight LNG could drain storage to 13%
• Cold winter could force demand cuts
• Summer US exports to Europe fell 8%

Norway Detains Two Cargo Ships After Three-Vessel Collision Near Alesund - A collision occurred involving a tanker and two other cargo ships in a narrow fjord near Ålesund on Norway’s west coast. All three vessels suffered damages in the accident that happened on Sunday, October 4. There were no injuries to any of the 30 crew members on the three vessels, with no evacuation necessary. The 88-meter bulk carrier vessel Bergfjord has suffered damage to its bow and flooded with water. The Norwegian Maritime Authority has ordered the two ships Bergfjord and Hav Frakt to stay in Ålesund until they complete their repairs, which would be subject to the approval of the Norwegian maritime authority. The 147-meter vessel Xanthia has also suffered damages but was allowed to proceed with its journey because of the impact without hull damage. The ship Xanthia was authorised to move under its own power to Finland to unload its cargo. It should then move to Tallinn, Estonia, where repairs should be made. The three ships had collided on the eastern side of Valderøya in Valderhaugfjorden, which is a narrow stretch of water near Ålesund. All the three ships were moving when the accident occurred; two of them were moving north while the third was moving south. Poor visibility and darkness in the fjord at that time were mentioned by the police and rescue crews. The ships varied in length from 80 to 147 meters. Ships Bergfjord and Hav Frakt were 88 meters each, whereas Xanthia was 147 meters long. There were seven crew members on each of the two cargo ships and 16 on Xanthia. The accident caused an emergency response when the Norwegian Joint Rescue Coordination Center received a Mayday call through coastal radio at 1:37 a.m. A rescue helicopter, rescue vessel, civilian vessels and the Royal Norwegian Navy frigate HNoMS Fridtjof Nansen responded to the incident. Shore emergency services and police were also involved. The crews of all three vessels remained aboard throughout the response, and no evacuation was needed. The ships were later reported safely berthed or anchored near Ålesund. There were no reports of an oil spill or other environmental damage. Norwegian police are investigating the circumstances of the collision, including the movements of the three vessels and the actions of the crews. Investigators are examining AIS tracks and technical data from the Norwegian Coastal Administration and are conducting interviews with those involved. The police has also conducted medical tests of some of the persons aboard the vessels and concluded that none of them were under the influence of alcohol and drugs. By Oct. 5, three persons had been identified as suspects for reckless navigation as per the Ship Safety Act of Norway. Nobody had been charged formally, and the police were yet to interview all three captains. The NSIA has initiated independent investigations. An NSIA official said the agency was collecting available information, including electronic traces, to establish what happened. The authority will decide whether the incident warrants a full safety investigation. Norwegian maritime inspectors boarded the ships after the accident. DNV, acting on behalf of Norwegian Maritime Authority, boarded the Xanthia on Sunday evening. The Maritime Authority performed its investigation on the next day, after which the ship got provisional permission to sail.

Global Natural Gas Prices Climb as Hormuz Attacks Heighten Winter LNG Supply Risks -European and Asian natural gas prices moved steadily higher Tuesday as Iranian attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz continued with no clear signs of tensions easing with the United States. European Union natural gas storage was 72.7% full on Oct. 4, 2026, below the five-year average, with 822.92 TWh in storage. At a Glance:

• Prices highest since 2023
• JKM maintains premium
• Qatari flows improve

Global LNG Shortfall Fuels Winter Call for Rising US Exports -Lasting LNG supply disruptions caused by conflict in the Middle East have made new US supply additions even more important heading into the winter. Lower 48 LNG feedgas deliveries ranged mostly from 17 to 20 Bcf/d in 2026, with October flows near 18 Bcf/d.  At a Glance:
Middle East outages tighten supply
Strong winter demand looms in Europe, Asia
US feedgas poised to climb

ADNOC Agrees to Supply More LNG to Southeast Asia -Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC) said its gas trading affiliate has agreed to supply Thailand’s Gulf Group with 2 Mt/y of LNG beginning in 2027. At a Glance:

• 2 Mt/y deal signed
• ADNOC targeting massive portfolio
• Gulf Group strengthening LNG value chain

LPG Consumption Falls 9 Per Cent in September - India’s liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) consumption fell 9.15 per cent year-on-year to 2,636 thousand metric tonnes (TMT) in September 2026, remaining below pre-war levels, according to data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC). Consumption stood at 2,902 TMT in September 2025  and 2,725 TMT in September 2024.  The decline was sharper during the first six months of the financial year. LPG consumption between April and September fell 14.93 per cent to 13,797 TMT from 16,218 TMT in the corresponding period of 2025-26, leaving usage about 2.42 mn tonnes below the year-ago level.. The reduction came as supplies through the Strait of Hormuz remained disrupted amid the conflict involving Iran, Israel and the US. The route is a major channel for global energy supplies, and the disruption has prompted India to diversify its sources of LPG, crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Greater adoption of piped natural gas (PNG) by households and industries may also have contributed to the decline. During a government drive from January to June 2026, about 1.21 mn new PNG connections and 1.53 mn domestic PNG registrations were added, while daily additions of billed consumers increased from about 2,781 to approximately 7,500. India has also raised domestic LPG output through public sector, joint venture and private refineries, along with upstream oil companies, to reduce exposure to import disruptions. Production has reached 63.81 thousand metric tonnes a day. In contrast, transport fuel demand increased in September, with petrol consumption rising 7.95 per cent to 3,644 TMT and diesel consumption climbing 6.55 per cent to 7,116 TMT. The United Arab Emirates was India’s largest LPG supplier in September, providing 529,211 tonnes, or nearly 40 per cent of imports, according to maritime intelligence firm Kpler. The US supplied 337,401 tonnes, followed by Kuwait with 132,544 tonnes, Qatar with 115,340 tonnes and Iran with 66,231 tonnes. The US had led India’s LPG supply over the previous six months.
 

Large oil exporters agree to continue consistent production in November  - Seven of the world’s largest oil-exporting countries agreed Sunday to maintain their baseline production levels for November, as fuel prices remain elevated amid the Iran war.The “OPEC+” group, which includes Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman, Russia and Saudi Arabia, decided to “maintain” oil production levels they agreed to in September, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in a release.Under the countries’ agreement, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Iraq will lead the way in oil production next month, followed by Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman. Leaders from the seven countries will meet again on Nov. 1, the release noted. OPEC+ includes countries that are members of the oil-producing organization and other exporters.Gas and diesel prices have spiked during the seven-plus-month Iran war, which has extended into October after President Trump initially said it would last roughly a month.  Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude oil, the respective international and North American benchmarks, both closed at above $90 per barrel on Friday. The energy shocks have extended to the U.S., where a gallon of regular gas costs roughly $4.37 as of Sunday, according to data from AAA. Diesel also costs about $6.34 per gallon, up from roughly $3.70 a year ago, AAA reported. Throughout the conflict, the Iranian military has imposed restrictions on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway for the oil trade. The U.S. military, meanwhile, has sought to escort tankers through the strait. Adm. Brad Cooper, the head of U.S. Central Command (Centcom), said last month American forces had supported the transfer of more than 1 billion barrels of crude oil in recent months through the waterway.“We’ve reached this significant milestone while assisting over 2,000 commercial ship transits through the strait by providing coordinated protection. Clearly momentum is building,” Cooper said in a video Centcom posted to social media.

Saudi Arabia says East-West pipeline pumping 5.8 million bpd - Al Jazeera-  Saudi Arabia’s energy minister has said that oil pumped through the key East-West Pipeline reached a capacity of 5.8 million barrels ⁠a day (bpd). Prince Abdulaziz bin ⁠Salman made the comments during a panel discussion at the GCC 2026 Forum in Bahrain’s capital, Manama, on Tuesday. “Not everyone knows that within five or six days, we began using the pipeline again after the major attack that struck it,” he said according to Saudi media, referring to drone strikes blamed on Iraqi militia last month. “And, thank God, as of this morning we’re back up to 5.8 million barrels,” added Prince Abdulaziz. The 1,200km (750-mile) pipeline links Saudi Arabia’s major oil-producing fields in the east with the Red Sea port of Yanbu, allowing the kingdom to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, which has largely been closed since the outbreak of the US-Israel war on Iran in late February. The Saudi Ministry of Energy had said at the time of the attack in early September that pipeline had been temporarily shut as a “precaution”. Specialised teams had begun steps to “secure the pipeline and assess its safety”, according to the ministry. The East-West pipeline, which is also known as the Petroline, was built in 1981. It has a maximum capacity of 7 million bpd, although actual flows have been lower in recent months – about 2 million bpd in August, according to commodities data and analytics firm Kpler – the lowest monthly level since January, as attacks by Yemen’s Houthi group made the Red Sea route difficult to use. Since the US-Israeli war on Iran disrupted ⁠oil flows from Saudi Arabia ⁠and its Gulf neighbours through the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has been using the pipeline to reroute ‌some 4 million bpd, equivalent to about 4 percent of global supply, to ‌Yanbu.

Saudi Aramco plans to fulfil European oil orders in full in November -  Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil and gas company, Saudi Aramco, plans to fulfil European buyers’ oil supply orders in full in November following the resumption of operations on the East-West Pipeline. Sources familiar with the situation said the pipeline’s return to service would enable the company to supply its European customers with the full volumes of crude oil they had ordered. On September 11, Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline came under attack by several drones near Medina and Riyadh. Reports at the time indicated that the drones had been launched from Iraqi territory. Oil transportation through the pipeline was suspended following the attack, disrupting the route used to transport crude oil across Saudi Arabia towards export terminals on the Red Sea.

Oil prices slip as G7 to release stocks - Oil prices edged lower on Monday as rising ​Middle East crude exports and a release of oil stocks by the Group of Seven ‌nations boosted supplies, offsetting concerns about further damage to Gulf oil infrastructure amid the US-Israeli war on Iran. Brent crude futures fell 66 cents, or 0.65%, to $101.59 a barrel at 0240 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $90.12 a barrel, down 95 ​cents, or 1.03%. Brent gave up most of its gains last week while WTI was 1.6% lower ​after G7 countries agreed on Friday to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from ⁠emergency reserves and pledged to refrain from energy export restrictions after pressure from US President Donald Trump. The ​release will add to Middle Eastern crude exports which rose above pre-war levels in four of the seven days of ​the final week of September, shipping data showed on Monday, despite attacks on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. “The G7 decision to tap strategic reserves is taking some of the immediate supply anxiety out of the price, while there’s a growing view ​that Saudi export volumes are moving back toward pre-war levels, even if those barrels are still moving at ​higher cost and via less efficient routes,” said Tim Waterer, chief analyst at KCM Trade. “That combination is enough to subdue prices ‌for now ⁠even though the risks of further damage to energy infrastructure around the Gulf region haven’t gone away.” The Houthis said they launched ballistic missiles and drones at Saudi Aramco sites in Riyadh and the Khurais area of Saudi Arabia in response to 50 Saudi-led air and missile strikes in Yemen in the past 12 hours. There was no ​confirmation from Saudi Arabia. On Sunday, ​Yemen’s Saudi-backed, internationally recognised ⁠government said it was launching a major military campaign to recapture all areas of the country controlled by the Iran-backed Houthis. Meanwhile, Aramco has unexpectedly cut November crude oil prices ​for Asia to six-year lows. Yemen announces major military operation to retake Houthi-held territory Brent prices continue to stay above $100 per barrel on ​persistent geopolitical tensions ⁠and an increase in attacks on commercial vessels in the Gulf, ING analysts said in a note. Meanwhile, OPEC+ delayed a review that would determine 2027 oil output quotas for its members after the Iran war disrupted projects to expand capacity ⁠across the ​Middle East, throwing estimates of future production potential into uncertainty, said ​two sources close to the matter. In Europe, Ukraine will double down on attacking Russian oil refineries, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told Reuters in an ​interview published on Saturday.

Oil Steadies as Market Weighs G7 Oil Release, Yemen Risks -- Oil prices were mixed Monday morning, with signs of Middle Eastern supply recovery and the announcement of a large-scale release from emergency reserves weighing on crude prices, while a flare-up in fighting in Yemen and continued attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz capped losses. By 7:30 a.m. EDT, ICE Brent for December delivery was down $0.40 to trade near $101.85 bbl, and NYMEX WTI for November delivery fell $1.38 to $89.73 bbl. Downstream, NYMEX RBOB for November delivery retreated $0.0394 to $3.2730 gallon. ULSD futures bucked the trend, with the front-month contract advancing $0.0467 to $4.5478 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index strengthened by 0.3 points to 102.015 against a basket of foreign currencies, the highest since April 2025. On Friday, leaders of the Group of Seven nations announced a joint release of 100 million bbl of crude oil and diesel from emergency stockpiles. The decision came the day after the Trump administration urged European countries to release diesel reserves or be cut off from vital U.S. flows. In reaction to the G7 announcement, the White House said it will shelve plans for a possible U.S. diesel export ban. Reports based on ship-tracking data, meanwhile, suggested that Middle Eastern crude oil exports have recently caught up or even surpassed pre-war levels. Threats to the region's vital shipping lanes, however, have not subsided. Tankers continued to be struck in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, and Riyadh-backed Yemeni forces on Sunday launched an offensive to wrest control of Bab al-Mandab from the Houthis. The Tehran-allied militia last month took over the chokepoint connecting the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean, putting Saudi oil exports at greater risk. The Houthis on Monday also claimed to have launched new attacks against Saudi energy infrastructure, although the kingdom has so far not reported any damages. Saudi energy assets have been the target of frequent drone and missile attacks from groups in Yemen and Iraq, leading to a two-week shutdown of the East-West pipeline and suspension of oil exports from the Red Sea last month. Saudi Aramco, meanwhile, unexpectedly slashed official selling prices to Asia for November. The steepest discount since 2020 may be part of an attempt to keep Saudi oil competitive amid expensive ship-to-ship transfers and dirty tanker rates rocketing to record highs, but still raised concerns about Asian oil demand, the region most affected by the seven-month long ongoing crisis.

Oil Market Slides as Middle East Oil Flows Top Pre-War Levels - The crude market on Monday posted an inside trading day as the market weighed reports of increased oil exports from the Middle East and the G7 stocks release against the continuing concerns over disruptions to supplies due to the war with Iran. According to shipping data, crude exports from the Middle East increased above pre-war levels in four of the seven days of the final week of September despite attacks on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The oil market posted a high of $91.88 on the opening before it erased some of Friday’s gains and sold off to a low of $89.11 by mid-morning. It later retraced some of its losses and settled in a sideways trading range. The November WTI contract settled down $1.68 at $89.43. The oil market later sold off further posting a new low of $88.74 in the post settlement period. The December Brent settled down $1.93 at $100.32. The product markets ended the session in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling up 4.41 cents at $4.5452 and the RB market settling down 6.62 cents at $3.2462. According to data from the Department of Energy, stocks of crude oil in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 283 million barrels last week, the lowest level since October 1982. The drawdowns are part of a U.S. agreement to release 172 million barrels from the facility. Additionally, the Trump administration last week said it is offering to loan energy companies 40 million barrels of oil from the SPR. U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Monday to expand access to tax-exempt diesel. President Trump said the directive will waive the off-road requirement for tax-free diesel and allow anyone to buy the red dye diesel fuel that is used by the agriculture industry and by some off-road vehicles. OPEC+ agreed to keep oil production targets steady for November at a meeting on Sunday, in line with expectations that further output policy adjustments are unlikely until next year. Seven core members of the group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia made the decision for November in a brief online meeting on Sunday. The seven members will hold their next meeting on November 1st. OPEC+ still has about 2 million bpd of output cuts in place covering most members. It needs the result of the capacity review to decide how to distribute increases and any changes to output are unlikely before 2027. A separate OPEC+ ministerial group called the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, which does not decide policy, also met on Sunday to review the market. The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee noted that global oil markets remained volatile and tight, with a supply shortage. IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 604,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending October 9th, cutting available refining capacity by 38,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 533,000 bpd in the week ending October 16th.

Crude oil price gains on reports of Houthi attacks on Saudi sites - Crude oil futures traded higher on Tuesday morning following reports that the Houthis had attacked several sites in Saudi Arabia. At 10.01 am on Tuesday, December Brent oil futures were at $100.56 up by 0.24 per cent, and November crude oil futures on WTI (West Texas Intermediate) were at $89.62, up by 0.21 per cent. October crude oil futures were trading at ₹8636 on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) during the initial hour of trading on Tuesday against the previous close of ₹8669, down by 0.38 per cent, and November futures were trading at ₹8544 against the previous close of ₹8571, down by 0.32 per cent. Citing the Houthis, a Reuters report said the Iran-backed Houthis had carried out attacks on several sites in Saudi Arabia, including King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, an Aramco refinery in Rabigh and Abha ⁠airport. However, there was no immediate confirmation from Saudi Arabia. Reports said Saudi Arabia reduced the official selling price for November-loading Arab Light crude into Asia by $3 a barrel. Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy of ING Think, said in the Commodities Feed that the Saudis have been shipping larger volumes through the Strait of Hormuz in recent weeks, given the outage of the East-West pipeline. Some market report said that the West Asian crude shipments have rebounded to 17.5 million barrels a day (around 98 per cent of pre-war levels). Producers in West Asia are moving larger volumes through the Strait of Hormuz despite elevated shipping risks. October natural gas futures were trading at ₹297 on MCX during the initial hour of trading on Tuesday against the previous close of ₹295.10, up by 0.64 per cent. On the National Commodities and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX), December cottonseed oilcake contracts were trading at ₹3443 in the initial hour of trading on Tuesday against the previous close of ₹3424, up by 0.55 per cent. October jeera futures were trading at ₹23420 on NCDEX in the initial hour of trading on Tuesday against the previous close of ₹23565, down by 0.62 per cent.

Oil prices fall as Middle East supply concerns ease - Oil prices fell nearly 2% today as supply concerns eased due to increased Middle Eastern crude exports and an agreement by the Group of Seven countries to release emergency diesel and crude stockpiles. Brent futures were down $1.84, or 1.8%, at $98.48 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $1.42, or 1.6%, to $88.01. Those moves put Brent on track for its lowest close since September 8 and WTI on track for its lowest close since August 31. "The price of the global crude benchmark, Brent, is once again toiling around $100/barrel, as its reasons for trading much beyond the psychological 3-digit mark are being eroded ... for now the assumption of more crude getting through has dampened price fervour," said John Evans, an analyst at oil broker PVM. Around 12 million barrels per day of crude oil and 2 million bpd of refined products - volumes needed to dampen price pressure - have left the Middle East on tankers in the last 7 to 10 days, the CEO of commodity trading giant Vitol said today. Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said today that oil pumped through the East-West Pipeline, which runs to the kingdom's Red Sea export hub of Yanbu, had reached 5.8 million barrels as of this morning. Oil price declines, however, have been limited by the possibility of further Middle East supply disruptions. Saudi Arabia's airports in Jazan and Najran were targeted in two attacks yesterday evening, injuring three people and causing limited damage, the Saudi aviation authority said, as hostilities between the kingdom and Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis escalated. The attacks occurred as Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces pressed a major offensive to retake territory from the Houthis after weeks of rebel advances, with Riyadh stepping up airstrikes in support of the campaign. Oil stocks around the world The International Energy Agency will meet next week to work out the details of a diesel stock release as market confusion grows over how many barrels Europe and the US plan to make available to address shortages and record-high prices, sources said. Under pressure from US President Donald Trump, the Group of Seven major economies agreed on Friday to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil from emergency reserves and pledged to refrain from imposing energy export restrictions. The G7, however, did not provide a breakdown of the volumes of crude, diesel and other products to be released, or say which countries would participate. In the US, meanwhile, the oil market was watching for weekly storage reports from the American Petroleum Institute trade group today and the US Energy Information Administration tomorrow. Analysts estimated energy firms added 1.8 million barrels of crude to US storage during the week ended October 2. If correct, it would mark the first time since August that crude stocks increased for three weeks in a row and compare with an increase of 3.7 million barrels in the same week last year and an average increase of 1.7 million barrels over the past five years (2021 to 2025). More stories on

Oil little changed as traders weigh supply risks, rising Middle East exports -- Oil prices were steady on Tuesday after recovering earlier losses, as the market weighed increases in Middle Eastern crude exports and a planned ‌Group of Seven release of emergency diesel and crude stockpiles against supply concerns related to attacks by the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. Brent futures were up 26 cents to close at $100.58 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 1 cent to settle at $89.44. “The price of the global crude benchmark, Brent, is once ​again toiling around $100/barrel, as its reasons for trading much beyond the psychological 3-digit mark are being eroded ... for now the assumption of more crude getting through has ​dampened price fervour,” said John Evans, an analyst at oil broker PVM. Around 12 million barrels per day of crude oil and 2 million ⁠bpd of refined products — volumes needed to dampen price pressure — have left the Middle East on tankers in the last seven to 10 days, the CEO of commodity trading giant ​Vitol said on Tuesday. Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said on Tuesday that oil pumped through the East-West Pipeline, which runs to the kingdom’s Red Sea export hub of ​Yanbu, had reached 5.8 million barrels as of Tuesday morning. Oil price declines, however, have been limited by the possibility of further Middle East supply disruptions. Saudi Arabia’s airports in Jazan and Najran were targeted in two attacks on Monday evening, injuring three people and causing limited damage, the Saudi aviation authority said, as hostilities between the kingdom and Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis escalated. The attacks occurred as Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces pressed ​a major offensive to retake territory from the Houthis, after weeks of rebel advances, with Riyadh stepping up airstrikes in support of the campaign. Separately, the Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted ​and destroyed a ballistic missile launched by the Houthis. The International Energy Agency will meet next week to work out the details of a diesel stock release as market confusion grows ‌over how many ⁠barrels Europe and the US plan to make available to address shortages and record-high prices, sources said. The surge in diesel prices has turned the fuel, which underpins trucking, agriculture and industry, into a global political and economic concern. The wars in Iran and Ukraine have curtailed exports and damaged refineries, helping drive the rise in prices. Under pressure from US President Donald Trump, the Group of Seven major economies agreed on Friday to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil from emergency reserves and pledged to refrain from imposing energy export restrictions. The G7, ​however, did not provide a breakdown of ​the volumes of crude, diesel and other ⁠products to be released, or say which countries would participate. With the war in Iran disrupting the flow of Middle East oil supplies, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected on Tuesday that world petroleum production would drop from a record 106.3 million bpd in 2025 to ​101.1 million bpd in 2026, and world oil demand will drop from a record 104.4 million bpd in 2025 to 102.4 ​million bpd in 2026. In 2027, ⁠however, EIA projected world oil supply and demand would rise back to record highs of 109.6 million bpd of production and 104.6 million bpd of consumption. In the US, meanwhile, the oil market was watching for weekly storage reports from the American Petroleum Institute trade group on Tuesday and the EIA on Wednesday. Analysts estimated energy firms added 1.8 million barrels of crude to US ⁠storage during the ​week ended October 2. If correct, it would mark the first time since August that crude stocks increased ​for three weeks in a row and compare with an increase of 3.7 million barrels in the same week last year and an average increase of 1.7 million barrels over the past five years (2021 to 2025).

Oil Prices Rise Amidst Strait of Hormuz Tensions and Asian Market Fluctuations - Ratopati | No.1 Nepali News Portal - Kathmandu. Concerns about oil supply from West Asia have increased as Iran has increased attacks on oil tankers in the important Strait of Hormuz, leading to a rise in crude oil prices on Wednesday, while Asian stock markets have declined. According to the UK's Maritime Trade Operations, there have been 9 attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf region this month. Earlier, news that oil exports from the Middle East had returned to pre-war levels caused the price of Brent crude oil to fall below $100 per barrel and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to fall below $90. However, with the news of increased attacks on tankers, oil prices have risen again. Paperstone's Chris Weston said that although reports of increased oil flow put some pressure on prices, news related to attacks on ships balanced it out. According to him, the market is currently highly sensitive to geopolitical risks. Meanwhile, Yemen's Houthis have claimed to have attacked Riyadh's main airport. Yemeni government forces have denied this claim, stating that they have removed Iran-backed groups from the Bab al-Mandab Strait and areas around the port city of Mocha. Elsewhere, stock markets in Tokyo, Hong Kong, Singapore, Seoul, Wellington, and Taipei have fallen, while markets in Sydney and Manila have risen. US Nasdaq and S&P 500 reached new records. With the increase in Nvidia's share price, the company's market capitalization has reached approximately $57 trillion USD. The Financial Times' news that SpaceX is seeking to raise $40 billion USD for the purchase of Nvidia's chips also boosted investor enthusiasm. However, concerns remain about when the expected returns will be achieved from the large investments made by technology companies in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector.

Oil Drops Despite 3.1 Million Drop In Crude Inventories, Diesel Spikes -Oil prices were largely unchanged, trading near session lows, after today's DOE inventory data affirmed the latest downbeat API prints from Tuesday afternoon, showing that the crude draw in the last week was even bigger than what API reported (-2.1MM), and far worse than the +1.9MM expected increase, printing at -3.186MM, the biggest draw in 6 weeks. API

•   Crude -2.1mm (vs +1.0mm last)
•     Gasoline -1.4mm (vs +3.0mm last)
•     Distillates +0.5mm (vs -0.3mm last)
•     Cushing +0.9mm, (vs +0.2mm last)

DOE:

•     Crude -3.186mm, the biggest drain in 6 weeks, and far below the exp. +1.915MM
•     Gasoline +382k
•     Distillates -42k
•     Cushing +444K

And visually: The decrease in commercial crude stockpiles was boosted by another 784,000 barrels withdrawn from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. That increased the overall nationwide crude draw to 3.97 million barrels in the week leading up to Oct. 2. A total of 132.5 million barrels of crude has been taken out of the SPR since late March under a program to release 172 million barrels as part of a relief plan from the International Energy Agency aimed at lowering energy costs. Meanwhile, Cushing stockpiles rose for the third consecutive week to 24.7 million barrels. That has inventories at the hub at the highest since May and even further away from the 20-million barrel mark generally seen as “tank-bottoms.” Some more details from the report: distillate fuel stockpiles were down 42,000 barrels, while gasoline stockpiles rose around 380,000 barrels. Diesel futures are little changed, but gasoline futures appear to be selling off on the news, erasing most of the day’s gains to trade around $3.31 a gallon. West Coast crude imports surged to the highest level since August 2025. There are a few potential reasons for that, but it’s likely tied to Middle East cargoes that loaded during a recent pause in hostilities. Imports into PADD 5 are now at about 1.6 million barrels a day and shipments last week rose by the most since April 2021. With diesel spreads not too far from all time highs, and forcing refiners to pick between gasoline and diesel, the all important refinery crude runs rebounded following three weeks of drawdowns. Crude processing increased by 223,000 barrels a day and now are back to the highest on record for this time of the year. And speaking of gasoline, Bloomberg suggests that the 1.4mm drop was less bearish than it seems. The additions to stocks occurred exclusively on the East Coast. Meanwhile in a reversal of last week's drop to all time lows, Midwest gasoline stockpiles posted a modest recovery, rising by just over 600K. On the Gulf Coast, where the bulk of gasoline production occurs, stockpiles are at their lowest since September 2017. Digging in a little further: The bulk of the gasoline stockpile additions occurred in the Central Atlantic, which encompasses Maryland, New York and Pennsylvania. The addition was considerably smaller in New England, and stockpiles actually fell in the Lower Atlantic states. Also worth noting is that among all the talk of a diesel export ban, diesel exports surged 235,000 barrels a day to 1.76 million barrels a day. That’s the highest readout since August, and sets a new seasonal record. Meanwhile, diesel supplies on the East Coast ticked down once again last week. They’re now back where they were in early September and still sitting at the lowest they’ve ever been on record heading into the fall. On the other side of the table, crude production rose to a new high of about 14 million barrels a day last week, up by 24,000 barrels a day from the previous week, and keeping pace with the recent surge in oil drilling rigs. Rebalancing the weekly numbers against the monthly figures published in the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook added “less than 50,000 barrels a day” to last week’s number. This increase came as one more rig was put into operation, according to Baker Hughes. Total crude and products exports soared to the highest since late May, returning to a seasonal record. The increase was driven largely by crude shipments, which climbed to the highest since mid-September. October-loading volumes are expected to trend higher compared with September, as refiners in Asia and Europe sought to lock in US supplies following the mid-September shutdown of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline. Gasoline stockpiles rose around 380,000 barrels with much of that occurring in the Central Atlantic, which encompasses New York and Pennsylvania. But on the Gulf Coast, where the bulk of gasoline production occurs, stockpiles are at their lowest since September 2017. Gasoline imports remain well below seasonal norms, but they ticked up last week. Those imports are particularly important to the East and West coasts, which have less refining capacity overall. Refinery crude runs rebounded following three weeks of drawdowns. Crude processing increased by 223,000 barrels a day and now are back to the highest on record for this time of the year. Midwest crude processing bounced back big time but is still below last year’s levels. It’s an indication that fall refinery maintenance is heavier than in previous years. WTI futures edged lower to trade near session lows of $89.50 even as the EIA data indicated that US crude stockpiles fell 3.2 million barrels. Still, stocks at the key hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, expanded slightly, easing some concerns of glaring physical market tightness. Gasoline stockpiles also rose, though as Will pointed out earlier, that may be less bearish than it appears. But while oil dropped, far more concerning is that diesel led the US energy complex higher, rising about 3% on the day to trade at $4.72 a gallon, while diesel crack spreads are now well above where they were when Trump announced the latest emergency release from the Diesel reserve. It’s the kind of futures price that creates serious headaches for anyone who needs to buy diesel for their truck or tractor.

Oil prices fall as IEA members agree to prioritize release of diesel stocks -Crude oil prices fell Wednesday after the International Energy Agency’s member states agreed to prioritize the release of diesel stocks in an effort to address surging fuel prices. Brent crude futures, the international benchmark, lost 38 cents to close at $100.20 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures fell $1.16 to settle at $88.28 per barrel.IEA members agreed to support “the prioritisation of the release of diesel stocks, to the extent possible, given the current tightness in diesel markets,” the organization’s director Fatih Birol said in a statement.  IEA members have deployed about 325 million barrels of oil under the March emergency action plan to address the supply disruption triggered by the Iran war, Birol said. This leaves about 100 million barrels that have not been released under the March plan, Birol said.The member states still have emergency stocks equivalent to 1.1 billion barrels including more than 200 million barrels of diesel, Birol said. The IEA is “ready to release more of these stocks to the market if and when required,” he said.The IEA meeting and statement comes after the G7 nations agreed Friday to release diesel stocks under pressure from the Trump administration. It is still unclear, however, how much diesel will be deployed.Oil prices were higher earlier in the session after Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen launched fresh strikes on Saudi Arabia, raising concerns that the rebound of oil exports from the Middle East is vulnerable.Oil pumped through the East-West pipeline had reached 5.8 million barrels as of Tuesday morning, according to Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman. It was closed in early September after sustaining damage in a drone attack. But the Saudi aviation authority reportedly said Tuesday that the country’s airports in Jazan and Najran were targeted in two attacks, amid growing hostilities between the Houthis and the kingdom.Iran’s move to step up attacks on tankers which are transiting through the Strait of Hormuz has also led to renewed worries over oil supplies among traders.Naeem Aslam, chief investment officer of Zaye Capital Markets, said Tuesday that oil remains “caught between improving physical supply and persistent geopolitical risk.”“The sustained ability of the Houthis in Yemen to target oil facilities hundreds of kilometers from the border keeps the risks of a renewed large-scale crude supply disruption present and high, and these risks could worsen if the Houthis feel the need to apply more pressure as a result of losing more territory,” said Samer Hasn, senior market analyst at forex trading platform XS.com.

Oil Prices Rise Amid Middle East Supply Concerns - Oil prices rose on Thursday as concerns over supplies from the Middle East persisted amid increasing attacks on shipping traffic in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures rose $1.33, or 1.33%, to $101.53 a barrel by 01:16 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained $1.11, or 1.26%, to $89.39 a barrel. Prices settled lower on Wednesday after the International Energy Agency agreed to accelerate withdrawals from oil reserves and prioritize diesel supplies under a plan launched in March, as governments seek to address record fuel prices and supply disruptions caused by the war in Iran. Threats targeting oil shipments in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz have increased during October as the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran enters its eighth month. Before the war, shipments equivalent to around 20% of global oil and fuel supplies passed through the strait. Attacks on oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz reached their highest weekly level since the start of the war in Iran last week. The increase in attacks comes as more crude is flowing from the Gulf, although shipments are being carried at higher costs and with greater risks to vessels and crews. In the latest attack, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency reported Wednesday that a tanker north of Qatar was struck by several projectiles, causing injuries. Daniel Hynes, senior commodities analyst at ANZ, said in a note on Thursday that such attacks had previously led to a decline in shipments from the Gulf. However, producers now appear willing to accept the risk of their vessels being damaged because there is no alternative way to transport their oil to international markets. Hynes added that the IEA’s reserve withdrawals would likely consist of barrels that were already part of the agency’s original 400 million-barrel release plan when the Middle East conflict began, meaning the move does not appear to represent an additional draw from strategic reserves. “Ultimately, strategic reserve releases can temporarily increase supply flows, but they do not create new production capacity,” Hynes said. U.S. inventory data, from the world’s largest oil consumer and producer, also supported prices. Crude oil inventories fell by more than expected, while diesel inventories declined slightly. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said Wednesday that crude inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels to 424.1 million barrels in the week ended October 2, compared with analysts’ expectations for a decline of 1.7 million barrels in a Reuters poll. Distillate inventories, which include diesel and jet fuel, fell by 42,000 barrels to 105.14 million barrels, remaining well below levels recorded at this time of year over the past five years.

Oil Jumps Amid Hormuz Tanker Attacks, Offshore Disruption -- Oil prices jumped Thursday morning amid growing supply risks as Iran was stepping up attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, and the first Hurricane of the season forced shut a quarter of U.S. offshore oil production. By 9 a.m. EDT, ICE Brent for December delivery was up $4.59 to trade near $104.79 bbl, and NYMEX WTI for November delivery rose $4.20 to $92.48 bbl. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD for November delivery advanced $0.1810 to $4.8037 gallon, and front-month RBOB futures gained $0.1257 to $3.3599 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index strengthened by 0.15 points to 102.16 against a basket of foreign currencies. Iranian attacks on commercial vessels in the strait have so far this month been more frequent than at any time since the beginning of the war in late February, threatening a shaky recovery in oil flows from the region. The Houthis, meanwhile, on Thursday issued a warning to Saudi oil workers, saying that Saudi Arabian energy assets are potential targets for retaliatory strikes. In the Gulf of Mexico, meanwhile, Hurricane Isaias has of Wednesday forced shut 25% of offshore oil production, amounting to more than 500,000 bpd, the newly formed Marine Minerals Administration of the Department of the Interior said. According to DTN WeatherOps, the storm is set to further strengthen before it will make landfall between Alabama and Florida later this week. A bullish U.S. inventory report published Wednesday also lent price support. According to Energy Information Administration data, commercial crude oil inventories shrank 3.2 million bbl last week, bringing total crude stockpiles including volumes in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to 707.1 million bbl, some 14.5% lower than in the corresponding reporting week last year. The report also revealed that distillate fuel oil stocks continued to slide, with nationwide ultra-low sulfur diesel inventories trailing year-ago levels by more than 15%.

Oil Market Jumps on Hormuz Attacks and Gulf Production Shutdowns - The oil market on Thursday traded higher, remaining in its recent trading range, on continuing concerns over supply from the Middle East amid an increase in attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The market was also well supported by energy firms shutting in production in the Gulf as Hurricane Isaias approached. The oil market posted a low of $88.77 in overnight trading and rallied higher. It extended its gains to over $4.90 and retraced more than 38% of its move from a high of $101.69 to a low of $86.86 as it posted a high of $93.20 by mid-day. However, the market retraced more than 62% of its earlier rally and traded back to $90.25 after President Donald Trump said the U.S. will not attack Iran at any time prior to the mid-term elections. The crude market later once again rebounded ahead of the close. The November WTI contract settled up $3.21 at $91.49 and the December Brent contract settled up $4.08 at $104.28. The product markets ended the session sharply higher, with the heating oil market settling up 26.02 cents at $4.8829 and the RB market settling up 8.18 cents at $3.3160. According to the Marine Minerals Administration, U.S. Gulf of Mexico oil and gas producers have shut in about 62.89% of current oil production and 57.35% of current natural gas production as of Thursday, as operators continued to respond to Hurricane Isaias. Energy research and consultancy firm Energy Aspects estimated that about 500,000 bpd of refining capacity is in the storm’s path, including the Pascagoula refinery. The region also produces an average of about 2.1 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas. BP said on Thursday it has removed all personnel from Na Kika and Thunder Horse platforms and shut in production at both platforms as a precaution ahead of approaching Hurricane Isaias. It said it also removed non-essential personnel from our Argos, Atlantis and Mad Dog platforms. On Wednesday, Shell and Chevron they were curtailing offshore operations at their Gulf platforms due to Hurricane Isaias. Bloomberg reported that Saudi Arabia is in talks with customers to offer oil loadings next year outside the Strait of Hormuz in long-term contracts, formalizing a system the country has been using during the Iran war as it seeks greater market share. Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi, said Iran is still reviewing Washington’s response to its proposal under which the Strait of Hormuz could be reopened within seven days and added that it could reply within days. A military spokesperson for Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis on Wednesday warned workers at Saudi oil facilities to avoid sites the group considers targets and renewed threats of attacks against airlines and airports. Bloomberg noted that while Iran’s latest increase in attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz should cause a decline in exports, crude shipments are nearing prewar levels and increasing freight costs are pulling tankers to the Middle East rather than driving them away.

Oil prices retreat after Trump appears to rule out Iran strikes before midterms - Oil prices fell Friday after surging the previous day, as traders weighed President Trump’s pledge not to attack Iran before the U.S. midterm elections against persistent shipping risks in the Persian Gulf and extensive offshore production shut-ins in the Gulf of Mexico. Trump said Thursday that the U.S. wouldn’t attack Iran before the Nov. 3 midterm elections, citing what he called productive discussions with Tehran. Trump said Thursday that the U.S. wouldn’t attack Iran before the Nov. 3 midterm elections, citing what he called productive discussions with Tehran. December Brent crude futures fell 1.3% to $102.90 a barrel, while December West Texas Intermediate futures dropped 1.4% to $89.50 a barrel. Both benchmarks had gained 4.4% Thursday, with Brent rising as much as 5% earlier in the session to $105.23 a barrel and WTI also climbing 5% to $92.70 before paring gains. Trump said Thursday that the U.S. wouldn’t attack Iran before the Nov. 3 midterm elections, citing what he called “productive discussions” with Tehran. The U.S. naval blockade of Iran remains in place, with roughly a dozen Navy ships in the region, The Wall Street Journal reported. Oil prices are likely to remain elevated in the short term despite the pullback as risks to Middle East shipping routes persist and U.S. offshore production remains disrupted, Hani Abuagla, senior market analyst at XTB MENA, said. Tensions elsewhere in the region also remain high. Iran and its Houthi allies in Yemen carried out another series of attacks Wednesday night and Thursday, including strikes targeting shipping in the Persian Gulf and Saudi Arabia, The Wall Street Journal reported. The U.S. also increased economic pressure on Tehran on Thursday. The Treasury Department sanctioned 17 vessels it said were part of Iran’s remaining shadow fleet and had transported millions of barrels of Iranian crude, petroleum and petrochemical products to markets in South and East Asia. Meanwhile, Hurricane Isaias has sharply increased disruptions to production in the Gulf of Mexico. The Marine Minerals Administration said 1.28 million barrels a day, or 62.9% of current offshore oil output, had been shut in as of Thursday morning, up from about 511,600 barrels a day the day before. Personnel had been evacuated from 121 production platforms and five drilling rigs. Isaias had maximum sustained winds of 100 miles an hour Thursday evening as it moved toward the northern U.S. Gulf Coast, according to the National Hurricane Center. The threat to U.S. Gulf Coast refineries has narrowed despite the offshore shutdowns. Fewer than 500,000 barrels a day of refining capacity in Alabama and Mississippi was at risk of a direct hit, down from 2.5 million barrels a day expected earlier in the week, S&P Global Energy said. Port closures and shipping delays could still disrupt refined-product exports, with U.S. Gulf Coast diesel exports averaging 1.4 million barrels a day so far this week, down from 2.1 million barrels a day the previous week, S&P said.

 Oil Eases on Fuel Export Resumption, Trump Iran Comments  (DTN) -- Oil prices slid Friday morning after U.S. President Donald Trump touted "productive discussions" with Iran and said that he will not order attacks on the Islamic Republic ahead of the midterm elections on Nov. 3. News that China set to resume fuel exports following a one-week suspension also eased supply woes. A slew of attacks on oil and LPG tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, meanwhile, limited the downside. By 9:15 a.m. EDT, ICE Brent for December delivery was down $1.19 to trade near $103.09 bbl, and NYMEX WTI for November delivery fell $0.79 to $90.70 bbl. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD for November delivery slid $0.0983 to $4.7846 gallon, and front-month RBOB futures retreated $0.0305 to $3.2855 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index strengthened by 0.155 points to 102.085 against a basket of foreign currencies. The President's statements helped to cool resurging escalation fears which were stoked by several reports suggesting the U.S. administration was mulling fresh attacks on Iran and had tasked the Pentagon with drafting strike options. Further fueling concerns, Iran has recently stepped up attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, with strikes so far in October being more frequent than at any other point during the more than seven-month long war. Prospects of an imminent diplomatic solution have also been dimming on reports that the first direct negotiations in months, started at the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in New York two weeks ago, had ended in a stalemate. The recent ramp up in Iranian attacks on commercial vessels was interpreted by some observers as a sign that recent talks were unproductive. Elsewhere, China was reportedly set to lift a de-facto fuel export ban that had rattled already supply-starved markets. The country did not grant any refined fuel export quotas for the duration of its week-long national holiday at the beginning of October. Canceled cargoes and the lack of communicated timeline had market participants concerned about yet another global fuel supply source drying up. Now a Category 2 Hurricane, Isaias has as of Thursday, forced shut operations at 130 U.S. offshore platforms, affecting around 1.3 million bpd of crude oil production. The first Hurricane of the season is expected to make landfall late Friday or early Saturday in an area that houses several important refineries, with Marathon's more than 600,000 bpd capacity Garyville refinery in Louisiana being the largest.

Oil prices settle higher as more production shut ahead of hurricane (Reuters) - Oil prices ​settled higher on Friday as Hurricane Isaias churned toward the northern Gulf of Mexico and ‌oil companies shut more than 70% of crude production in US waters. Earlier in the session, crude prices were down as US President Donald Trump said talks with Iran to end the war in the Middle East had been "productive." Trump ​also teased an upcoming, undisclosed announcement on diesel and said he was considering suspending ​the federal gasoline tax.Brent crude futures settled at $104.72, up 44 cents ⁠or 0.42%. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures finished at $91.85 a barrel, up 36 cents, ​or 0.39%.Plans by China, the world's top oil importer, to resume refined fuel exports after a brief halt ​during its Golden Week holiday, also weighed on the market. Reuters reported the development on Friday, citing sources. On a weekly basis, Brent and WTI prices are set to rise.Trump's Iran pledge along with China's resumption of product exports ​were moving prices lower, PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga said. Prices have been volatile this week ​as threats to shipping in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, which carried shipments equal to about ‌20% ⁠of global oil and fuel before the war, have increased. Trump said on Thursday that Washington was having "productive discussions" with Iran and said no attack was planned before the November 3 midterm congressional elections after media reports that he was considering an attack before then.Iran's Tasnim news agency reported the same day ​that Foreign Minister Abbas ​Araqchi said Tehran is ⁠reviewing the US response to its proposal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days.The US is still pressuring Iran economically, imposing ​sanctions targeting individuals, networks and 17 vessels for transporting Iranian crude, ​oil products ⁠and petrochemicals.The Iran war and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine have disrupted supplies of refined fuels such as gasoline, jet fuel and especially diesel fuel.The oil market is also contending with Hurricane Isaias in the ⁠Gulf of ​Mexico where producers have shut in about 1.3 million ​barrels per day, or 62.9%, of current oil production as of Thursday, according to the US Marine Minerals Administration.

Attacks on Tankers in the Strait of Hormuz Escalate - While oil exports from the Middle East have reportedly exceeded pre-war levels, attacks on tankers in or near the Strait of Hormuz have also risen over the past week, with at least 11 coming under attack since last Monday, according to a count from The New York Times. According to the UK Maritime Trade Operations, at least four tankers have come under attack since Saturday, October 3. The latest attack occurred on Monday, when the master of an unnamed tanker reported that an unknown projectile struck his vessel, according to a report from gCaptain.   In another incident on Monday, a tanker reported being contacted by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) while it was transiting near the strait off the coast of Oman and was told to turn around or risk being targeted, and the master of the vessel complied with the IRGC order. The increase in attacks on tankers in the region, coupled with the increase in oil exports, has led to speculation that Iran may be collecting tolls from some of the vessels that are passing through the strait. Some ships are being escorted by the US Navy, and other smaller tankers have been conducting ship-to-ship transfers from larger tankers inside the Gulf to others in the Arabian Sea. Last week, an IRGC official said that Iran had continued daily attacks on ships in the strait while the US has stopped responding. In early September, the US bombed multiple Iranian tankers, declaring a new policy of bombing Iranian tankers in response to Iranian strikes on commercial ships, but that policy has stopped as the Trump administration appears to be avoiding further escalation with Iran until after the midterms. President Trump has repeatedly declared that the US has “control” of the Strait of Hormuz, which Iranian officials have strongly rejected, maintaining that the crucial waterway will not be fully opened until the US implements the Memorandum of Understanding signed in June.

Oil Was Pouring Out of Hormuz Again. Then Attacks on Ships Resurged. – WSJ —A new wave of attacks on vessels around the Strait of Hormuz is threatening a recovery in Middle Eastern oil exports—just as Gulf producers have pushed crude shipments back toward prewar levels. The swift rebound in shipments in recent weeks has been driven by U.S. naval protection and earlier waves of strikes that knocked out Iranian radar and communications along the contested strait. The United Arab Emirates and other producers have set up an elaborate system of shuttle runs in which tankers load inside the Persian Gulf, exit Hormuz and transfer the crude to vessels waiting outside the waterway. But after several days without reported attacks on ships toward the end of last month, the U.K. Maritime Trade Operations, which is affiliated with the Royal Navy, has reported seven strikes on vessels around the waterway since Sept. 28. On Sunday, it reported another strike, but didn’t specify when the incident happened.  Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps navy issued a warning to ships planning to use the U.S.-backed route through the strait on Saturday, saying that they would be targeted and destroyed. “Don’t trust U.S. Navy and don’t use south corridor at all and don’t put your life in danger,” a radio message transmitted on a public shipping channel and reviewed by The Wall Street Journal said. The renewed attacks may already be taking a toll, with early signs that oil flows are beginning to slow, analysts say. Firm data comes with a lag, because many ships are operating without their transponders switched on to avoid becoming targets. All seven vessels were attacked near the narrowest part of the Hormuz strait, according to UKMTO.  Iran’s ability to target ships has also improved in recent weeks, adding to the risks in the strait, according to a U.S. official. The U.S. several weeks ago said it would strike Iranian oil tankers in response to Tehran’s attacks, but it has since backed off that effort after Iran unleashed a wave of missiles at a U.S. air base in Jordan, the official said.The new strikes expose the fragility of the recovery in oil flows and come as President Trump, who has claimed full U.S. control over Hormuz, weighs renewed military action against Iran. Any fresh disruption would hit a global economy already grappling with high energy prices and rising borrowing costs. International benchmark oil prices remain around $100 a barrel despite recovering exports, reflecting fears that renewed attacks could again curb flows and keep freight and security costs elevated.“The step-up in attacks on ships highlights how the current equilibrium in the oil market is fragile and could easily be shattered,” said  “This would especially be the case if there is further escalation and energy infrastructure is targeted.”   Among the seven vessels attacked in the past week, at least four had completed two or more roundtrips in and out of the Strait of Hormuz since June, carrying crude oil or oil products, according to ship tracker Kpler.   Since the U.S. and Israeli strikes that began the war in February, Iran has used attacks on ships to throttle shipping through Hormuz, once the thoroughfare for a fifth of the world’s oil. That has driven up the price of gasoline and diesel for consumers around the world and has forced Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. to divert exports around the strait through bypass pipelines.Kpler said regional crude exports excluding Iran averaged at least 16.5 million barrels a day from Sept. 1 through Sept. 28, close to prewar levels. Saudi Arabia had shifted exports back through Hormuz after a Sept. 10 attack on its East-West pipeline and attacks on its ships by Yemen’s Houthi militants interrupted Red Sea shipments. The pipeline remains below capacity, but renewed loading at the Yanbu port on the Red Sea could help offset another Hormuz slowdown, Hussain said.  Standard Chartered estimates that total Saudi exports rebounded to 6.9 million barrels a day in September from 2.45 million in August.  But restored volumes don’t mean a return to normal.  In September, most of the crude that crossed the Strait of Hormuz went via tankers transferring their oil to ships waiting off the coast of the U.A.E. and Oman, according to Kpler.  The costs of such shuttle runs and military-protected convoys may not be sustainable, wrote Kim Fustier, senior global oil and gas analyst at HSBC. Meanwhile, margins for diesel and other refined products remain high.“All of this suggests that Middle East exports—at least for crude—are rising, but at enormous cost,” Fustier wrote.

7 Oil Tankers Attacked In Strait Of Hormuz, As U.S. Official Admits Iran's Targeting Abilities Keep Improving - Depending on where you live, you may have seen fuel prices drop over the weekend, but that wasn't because Republicans are finally winning the senseless war they started with Iran. No, it's mostly because the governors of Georgia and Ohio suspended their states' gas taxes, while governors in other states have found short-term solutions for temporarily making diesel less expensive. Meanwhile, over in the Strait of Hormuz, the Wall Street Journal reports Iran has increased its attacks on oil tankers attempting to transit the strait, slowing oil exports yet again.  According to the WSJ, crude oil shipments had largely returned to prewar levels after a series of U.S. strikes took out Iran's radar and communications abilities along the strait. That lull in hostilities, combined with Gulf countries working overtime to find alternative routes that avoid the strait, briefly allowed oil exports to surge. But much like Georgia's suddenly lower gas prices, Iran losing its targeting capabilities was only temporary. Since September 28, UK Maritime Trade Operations data shows Iran has hit seven ships traveling through Hormuz, and it appears Iran struck an eighth ship on Sunday, as well. As the WSJ explained: Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps navy issued a warning to ships planning to use the U.S.-backed route through the strait on Saturday, saying that they would be targeted and destroyed. "Don't trust U.S. Navy and don't use south corridor at all and don't put your life in danger," a radio message transmitted on a public shipping channel and reviewed by The Wall Street Journal said. The renewed attacks may already be taking a toll, with early signs that oil flows are beginning to slow, analysts say. Firm data comes with a lag, because many ships are operating without their transponders switched on to avoid becoming targets. All seven vessels were attacked near the narrowest part of the Hormuz strait, according to UKMTO. Iran's targeting is improving Majid Saeedi/Getty Images Ideally, the oppressive regime running Iran would be getting weaker as the war stretches past its seventh month, but according to one U.S. official the WSJ spoke with, that's not the case. Instead, they're reportedly getting better at targeting ships in the strait, undermining Republican claims that the U.S. controls the strait and threatening to send fuel prices even higher: Iran's ability to target ships has also improved in recent weeks, adding to the risks in the strait, according to a U.S. official. The U.S. several weeks ago said it would strike Iranian oil tankers in response to Tehran's attacks, but it has since backed off that effort after Iran unleashed a wave of missiles at a U.S. air base in Jordan, the official said. The new strikes expose the fragility of the recovery in oil flows and come as President Trump, who has claimed full U.S. control over Hormuz, weighs renewed military action against Iran. At the moment, AAA reports the average gas price in the U.S. is still $4.37 a gallon, while the average gallon of diesel sits at $6.32. Brent Crude, meanwhile, is still trading at more than $100 a barrel, and if Iran continues to target tankers with increased precision, analysts say to expect Brent to stay over $100 through the rest of this year and on into 2028. "The step-up in attacks on ships highlights how the current equilibrium in the oil market is fragile and could easily be shattered," Capital Economics senior economist Hamad Hussain told the WSJ. "This would especially be the case if there is further escalation and energy infrastructure is targeted." Putin continuing his invasion of Ukraine isn't helping with global oil prices, either, with ABC News reporting that Ukrainian counterattacks have knocked out half of Russia's refining capacity. Meanwhile, NBC News reports Yemen and Saudi Arabia still have their hands full with the Houthi rebels who took control of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait and recently struck an Aramco facility in Riyadh. Oh, and on top of that, Reuters reports China just suspended fuel exports. Fun!

Iran ramps up Strait of Hormuz attacks with 11 ships hit in a week - UKMTO revealed on Monday two previously unknown ship strikes in the Strait of Hormuz during the weekend, bringing the total number of vessels impacted by Iranian fire since 29 September to 10 tankers and one LPG carrier.

Is Iran charging a toll to allow oil traffic through Hormuz? - Al Jazeera - Middle East oil exports have climbed back above levels seen before the US-Israel war on Iran began in February, despite Tehran’s attempts to blockade the Strait of Hormuz and attack vessels. Crude exports from the region exceeded pre-war levels on four days in the final week of September, reaching between 19.5 and 22.5 million barrels per day (bpd), according to provisional data from maritime tracking firm Kpler. Before the war, exports averaged about 18 million bpd. This surge in oil exports from the region has so far largely been attributed to US ships shepherding tankers out of the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with increasing ship-to-ship transfers that reduce the risks of being targeted by Iranian missiles and drones. Meanwhile, the fact that oil prices have remained high has been explained by analysts as the result of still-elevated insurance rates — driven by fears of Iranian attacks — and a market factoring in the possibility of a return to a hot war. But a senior Kpler analyst last week offered a different explanation for the rise in oil exports at high prices. Gulf countries, she suggested, may be paying Iran to allow their oil through – potentially handing Tehran a significant portion of the value of the cargo. Before the war, one-fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas exports passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Does this explanation hold up, and what does it mean for the war and oil prices? Michelle Brohard, head of policy and geopolitical risk at Kpler, recently said some countries could be paying Iran for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. “I suspect there is a toll that’s being paid, which is giving these ships safe passage,” she said in an interview last week with energy analyst Rory Johnston. “I also suspect that these countries know that this is unsustainable from a perspective of [the] US escorting [ships], and also unsustainable from them paying Iran 10 percent of their cargo, or 20 percent of their cargo,” she added. “So you’re starting to see like what I would call like a race to get out as much as possible, as quickly as possible before the war restarts.” The claim has not been independently verified, and Brohard presented it as speculation rather than a finding backed by evidence. But as early as March, the shipping journal Lloyd’s List reported that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) had already imposed a “toll booth” system to control vessel traffic through the strait. The Trump administration, during the course of the war, has repeatedly said Iran will not be permitted to charge a toll under any potential agreement with Washington. Closure of the strait has caused global fuel costs to soar and has tested agricultural sectors across the world. Oil is increasingly getting out of the Middle East, marine trackers report. In the last week of September, the seven-day average climbed above the roughly 18 million bpd recorded before the US-Israel war on Iran began in February – the first time since the conflict started. Kpler said crude exports excluding Iran had also recovered to at least 16.5 million bpd as an average over September. The pattern of increasing oil exports has continued into October. Iraq’s state-owned Oil Tanker Company on Saturday announced that it had transported two million barrels of crude on a very ‌large crude carrier (VLCC) through the Strait of Hormuz, in what its director general said was the company’s first such operation in decades. According to Kpler, “40 percent now bypass Hormuz, and most crude crossing the strait changes tankers offshore”, with much of it flowing through Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates pipelines. The export figures also include supplies moved through the Red Sea, which has become an increasingly important alternative to the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran says Strait of Hormuz will not reopen until conditions are met (Reuters) - The Strait of ​Hormuz will not reopen until seven Iranian conditions set out in a June interim agreement with the US ‌are met, state media reported Iran's parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf as saying on Sunday. Iran presented a proposal during the UN General Assembly under which the Strait of Hormuz waterway could be reopened and normal maritime passage restored within seven days if the conditions were met, with the US replying to ​this proposal last week via Qatari intermediaries. "The position of the Islamic Republic of Iran is completely clear and firm, and ​the Strait of Hormuz will not be opened until our seven conditions, based on the Islamabad ⁠Memorandum of Understanding, are met," Qalibaf, who is Iran's top negotiator, was quoted as saying. He said Washington "must understand that the period of ​dragging out the (diplomatic) process and dictating one-sided demands is over". A Foreign Ministry spokesperson said on Sunday that Tehran ​had clarified its broad positions via mediators to the US response but that additional points remained to be communicated to Washington. "The Americans' propositions are more or less in line with their previous positions, specifically on the nuclear issue. We told them our focus in this stage is the issue of the ​Strait of Hormuz and the return to security in this waterway requires clear steps from the US," spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said. He ​also denied Tehran had offered UN nuclear watchdog inspections of its nuclear facilities in exchange for US sanctions relief, saying Iran had not entered into ‌nuclear ⁠discussions with Washington. The document being circulated outlines a seven-day period of trust-building aimed at returning the two sides to an enhanced version of the memorandum of understanding agreed in June, including concrete steps on Iran's nuclear programme, an official briefed on the talks said last week. The disagreement centres on the sequencing of the steps rather than the components of the plan, the official added. Qatar has been ​shuttling messages between Washington and Tehran ​in an effort to end ⁠the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the conduit for a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas before the war that began at the end of February with US ​and Israeli attacks on Iran. The June memorandum of understanding led to a brief ceasefire and included ​provisions on the ⁠strait and Iran's nuclear programme. Separately, Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi told foreign ambassadors and diplomats in Tehran on Sunday that Tehran hoped Washington would choose diplomacy but warned that Iran was prepared to respond if the US again chose military action. On Thursday, sources told Reuters that Iran ⁠was preparing ​a broader and more forceful response if Washington resumed large-scale military attacks. Advertisement · Scroll to continue “If they again ​move towards military solutions, we are more prepared than before and will take whatever action is necessary to defend ourselves,” Araqchi said on Sunday. Army spokesperson Mohammad Akraminia told ​Fars news agency on Sunday Iran would upgrade the range of its missiles.

Top commander issues stark warning: Any new war on Iran will engulf everyone in its flames - Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces Major General Ali Abdollahi has warned that any new war against Iran will have dire consequences for all sides and will “engulf everyone in its flames.” In a message issued on Monday, Major General Ali Abdollahi said, “If a new war is launched against Iran, its flames will engulf everyone.” He also pointed to the US military presence in the region as a source of insecurity and economic problems, warning countries hosting US forces that regional instability would persist as long as the American military remains in the region. “Countries hosting the United States in the region should know that the main factor behind insecurity in the region and the emergence of economic problems is the presence of the terrorist US army in the region,” Abdollahi said. He also rejected recent claims that Iran’s nuclear program has entered a military phase, describing such allegations as “delusional” and an attempt to portray Iran as a threat. Abdollahi slammed Israel for possession of nuclear weapons, saying claims about Iran’s nuclear activities by a party possessing “several hundred nuclear warheads” were unacceptable and amounted to mocking international law. He also warned international organizations, particularly the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), against baseless statements concerning Iran’s nuclear facilities. “We warn international organizations, particularly the IAEA, to refrain from continuing to play the role of a wolf in sheep’s clothing and from making baseless statements about Iran’s nuclear facilities,” he said. Iran is a member of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, known as the NPT, and has accepted extensive IAEA inspections over the years. The country has also committed itself to a religious decree that bans the development of nuclear weapons and has repeatedly denied accusations by Western countries that it is working to build nuclear bombs. Israel has never been a member of the NPT and has always kept silent about reports it has an arsenal of around 300 nuclear bombs. Addressing US President Donald Trump, Abdollahi also said Iran is not waiting for the outcome of the upcoming US congressional elections, warning him against any anti-Iran move. He said that regardless of the election result, any US action against Iran, either directly or at Israel’s instigation, would trigger an immediate Iranian response. “If he himself, or at the provocation of the child-killing Zionist regime, takes action against the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran will immediately target US interests without limitation, with intensity and force and in a painful manner,” Abdollahi warned, referring to Iran’s response during the “Ramadan War.” Abdollahi said Iran was “stronger than ever” and fully prepared to confront any threat, regardless of its nature or scale. He further noted that previous wars against Iran had ended in failure for the United States and Israel, noting that the aggression had exposed deep weaknesses and instability within Israel. According to Abdollahi, Israel launched the 12-day war against Iran after miscalculating Iran’s strength and subsequently sought an end to the aggression after suffering “powerful, effective and heavy blows” from Iran’s armed forces. He warned that Israel would not be capable of confronting Iran in any future aggression, saying that if it initiated another war, Iran’s armed forces and people would respond forcefully

Iran summons Norwegian envoy over US weaponization of Starlink for subversion -Iran has summoned the Norwegian ambassador in Tehran to lodge a formal diplomatic protest over Oslo’s continued inaction regarding unauthorized Starlink satellite internet operations within Iranian territory, a network that Washington and Tel Aviv have heavily weaponized for espionage and subversion. Mohammad Hassannejad Pirkoohi, Director General for International Peace and Security at the Iranian Foreign Ministry, summoned Paul Beijer Nestad, the Norwegian Ambassador to Tehran, on Sunday to deliver an official note of protest. During the meeting, Pirkoohi outlined the systematic abuse of the Starlink satellite network by the United States and the Israeli regime to advance interventionist agendas against the Islamic Republic. He sharply criticized Norway for failing to fulfill its legal obligations as the registering state for the Starlink network at the International Telecommunication Union (ITU). "Based on the decisions of the ITU’s Radio Regulations Board (RRB) in recent years, the Norwegian government is obligated to take the necessary measures to prevent unauthorized Starlink transmissions within Iran's territory," Pirkoohi emphasized. He noted that despite repeated follow-ups by the Islamic Republic, Norway has taken no effective action to halt these sovereignty-violating broadcasts. The Iranian official demanded the immediate reflection of Tehran's demands to the Norwegian government, urging Oslo to take swift action to stop the activities that compromise Iran's national security and territorial sovereignty. The diplomatic rebuke comes as Starlink has increasingly transitioned from a commercial telecommunications provider into a direct instrument of the US military-intelligence apparatus during the ongoing US-Israeli war of aggression against Iran. By beaming internet access directly into Iranian airspace without Tehran's authorization, Starlink provides a parallel, unregulated communications grid. This allows US and Israeli intelligence agencies to maintain secure, untraceable contact with embedded espionage cells, coordinate cyber warfare operations, and bypass Iran's secure national intranet during military strikes. The network effectively serves as a digital beachhead, allowing foreign aggressors to project power into Iranian cyberspace in direct violation of international telecommunications law. The lethal potential of this unauthorized network was most evident during the US-backed armed insurgency and coup attempt in January 2026. When Washington and Tel Aviv attempted to exploit economic grievances by deploying CIA and Mossad operatives to turn peaceful demonstrations into violent clashes, Starlink served as the primary command-and-control network for the rioters and terrorists. During the unrest, Starlink terminals allowed foreign agents and armed insurgents to coordinate attacks on Iranian infrastructure, evade law enforcement communication blackouts, and livestream fabricated propaganda to Western media outlets.

Yemeni forces strike Riyadh airport, Rabigh Aramco refinery in retaliatory operations -- The Yemeni Armed Forces have carried out a series of precise retaliatory strikes deep inside Saudi territory, targeting King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh and the Aramco refinery in Rabigh. In a statement issued Monday, Yemeni military spokesman Brigadier General Yahya Saree said the operations employed a large number of ballistic and cruise missiles alongside drones. The first strike hit King Khalid Airport directly, disrupting air traffic. The second struck the Aramco facility in Rabigh, igniting fires at the site. A third operation targeted Abha Airport, Khamis Mushait Air Base, the Akafa camp in Asir, and sensitive military positions in Najran and Jazan provinces, with the spokesman confirming accurate hits. The operations came in direct response to continued Saudi aggression. According to the Yemeni Armed Forces, the Saudi military launched dozens of airstrikes and missile attacks over the previous 24 hours against Sana’a and the provinces of al-Jawf, Taiz, Hajjah, Saada and Marib. The raids killed and wounded civilians, including women and children. Total Saudi attacks since the latest escalation now stand at 1,576. Saree reiterated that the blood of Yemeni civilians will not go unanswered and that the equation of “siege for siege and escalation for escalation” remains in force. Yemeni forces will continue striking Saudi military concentrations and the sources of aggression until the bombardment ceases and the blockade on Yemen is lifted. International airlines were warned that Saudi airspace, excluding the holy cities of Mecca and Medina, now falls within the range of Yemeni operations. The strikes follow weeks of Yemeni operations against Aramco infrastructure and Saudi air bases in the south of the kingdom, which Riyadh has been unable to prevent despite extensive air defenses. Yemeni officials have repeatedly stated that energy facilities and military sites used to launch attacks on Yemen constitute legitimate targets. Meanwhile, the Saudi-led coalition claimed its naval forces conducted an operation in Hodeidah governorate, asserting the destruction of weapons stores, explosive-boat warehouses and sea mines. Yemeni media reported Saudi airstrikes on Kamaran Island and al-Salif district in the same governorate, and called it a continuation of the aggression that has targeted civilian areas and infrastructure across the country. The latest exchange underscores the failure of the Saudi military’s renewed military campaign to subdue Yemen or shield its own territory. Yemeni forces have maintained the ability to impose costs on the sources of attack while advancing the principle that aggression and blockade will be met in kind.

Riyadh-Based Yemeni Leader Announces Offensive Against Ansar Allah as Saudi Arabia Escalates Airstrikes -  Rashad al-Alimi, the head of the Riyadh-based Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council, announced on Sunday that Saudi-backed forces were launching a major offensive aimed at capturing all areas of Yemen under the control of Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthis.Al-Alimi has been based largely in Saudi Arabia for more than a decade, having left Yemen after Ansar Allah’s takeover of Sanaa in 2014. While he is framing the offensive as a Yemeni operation, it will rely heavily on Saudi Arabia, which arms and funds many of the ground forces involved and has been conducting heavy airstrikes against Ansar Allah-controlled Yemen, where most of the country’s population lives.The US is also deeply involved in the war as it is providing targeting and intelligence support for the Saudi air campaign, though so far, it has refrained from launching direct strikes. A US-Ansar Allah ceasefire reached in May 2025 remains in effect, and Ansar Allah has warned that it would escalate in response to any direct US attacks. A US official told Axios on Sunday that the US “is not going to take kinetic action for now,” though the official said that could change if the operations against Ansar Allah run into problems. The Saudi-backed ground forces are unlikely to succeed, as Ansar Allah’s military has made sweeping gains since it launched a ground offensive in early September, and previous wars and bombing campaigns against Ansar Allah have failed.Saudi Arabia appears to have significantly escalated its strikes in Yemen in recent days, as Saudi forces and Ansar Allah have traded attacks against each other’s capitals. Ansar Allah military spokesman Yahya Saree said Sunday that Yemeni forces recorded more than 100 Saudi airstrikes and missile attacks over the past 24 hours.“Over the past 24 hours, Saudi warplanes launched 106 airstrikes and missile attacks targeting civilian areas in the capital, Sanaa, and the governorates of Al-Jawf, Taiz, Amran, Hajjah, and Sa’dah,” Saree wrote on Telegram.  “These attacks were carried out using F-15 and Typhoon aircraft that took off from Khamis Mushait and Taif airbases, with missile strikes originating from Najran. This brings the total number of Saudi-led airstrikes and missile attacks since the escalation against our country to 1,516,” Saree added. The US-backed Saudi-led coalition that waged a war in Yemen from 2015 to 2022 was notorious for bombing civilian areas, and there has been an increasing number of civilian casualties since the war was reignited by Saudi airstrikes targeting the Sanaa International Airport in July. The Yemeni Health Ministry within the Ansar Allah-led government said that a Saudi airstrike on Sunday hit a sponge factory in Sanaa, injuring three workers. A day earlier, Yemeni media reported that a woman was killed and children were injured by a Saudi strike on a home in the southwestern Taiz province.

Saudi-backed Yemeni forces expel Houthi rebels from several areas around key strait, officials say - (AP) — Forces of the Saudi-led coalition fighting in Yemen have recaptured several key areas around the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Iran-backed Houthi rebels, Yemeni officials said Monday, while the Houthis claimed attacks on Saudi oil facilities, airports and military bases as fighting escalated on Yemen’s western coast. The Yemeni officials said forces allied with the internationally recognized government retook the crucial town of Dhubab just north of the strait, a vital shipping route that connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden. They also captured the towns of Bab and Hadeid, said the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to reporters. Witnesses said they saw government tanks and forces entering the towns. The government push came as part of a major offensive launched early Monday under air cover by a Saudi military coalition. Brig. Gen. Yahya Saree, the Houthis’ military spokesman, claimed in a pre-recorded statement that the rebels used ballistic and cruise missiles and drones in attacks targeting King Khalid International Airport in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, and an oil refinery in the Red Sea city of Rabigh. Also attacked were Abha airport, military facilities in Khamis Mushait and other “critical sites” in the cities of Najran and Jizan, he claimed. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters that it was expected that the Saudi-backed government would hit back at the rebels to reclaim territory. Asked if the coalition coordinated the action with the United States, Rubio said that Saudi Arabia and the U.S. have a defense agreement but wouldn’t offer more details. Since the Yemeni government was ousted from some of its territory by the Houthis and the Saudis have come under attack, “they have a right to defend themselves,” Rubio said. The U.S. has provided support to Saudi Arabia in its ongoing campaign against the Houthis, according to a regional official and a U.S. official who spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to speak to reporters. The support included intelligence sharing, target identification and planning for the offensive, said the officials. The U.S. had supported the Saudi-led coalition fighting the Houthis early in the Yemen war, before quitting the coalition in recent years. The U.S. Embassy in Riyadh warned U.S. citizens on social media to be vigilant about possible drone or missile attacks. The offensive came just after the rebels said they had captured more territory in the southwestern part of Yemen, taking a key town in a blow to the Saudi-backed forces as they advanced toward a strategic provincial capital in the region. The Saudi-led coalition spokesman, Maj. Gen. Turki al-Malki, said 100 fighter jets were providing support to government forces. He said the coalition secured “air protection” of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and destroyed hundreds of Houthi targets. Also on Monday, the foreign and defense ministers of Pakistan and Turkey agreed with Saudi Arabia to deploy military forces to the kingdom under their defense pact. A joint statement released by Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry after an emergency meeting in Riyadh did not specify troop numbers, identify which countries would contribute forces or give a deployment timetable. The three countries condemned what they described as attempted attacks on Mecca and Medina, as well as continuing attacks on Saudi cities and civilian and economic facilities. The statement did not identify who was responsible. The air campaign follows the fall of a key town in Yemen The escalation between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis has revived Yemen’s civil war after a four-year ceasefire. Houthis seized the town of Turbah on Sunday. Turbah sits on a main road linking the provincial capital of Taiz with the port city of Aden, which serves as an interim seat of Yemen’s government. Over the years, the town was a major post for government forces defending Taiz. Earlier, the Houthis seized several villages and areas on Taiz’s outskirts, paving the way for the rebels to encircle Taiz, Yemen’s third-largest city. Yemen’s flare-up shows the capabilities of the Iran-backed rebels The Houthis made a swift push on the country’s western coast on the Red Sea in early September. They captured the strategic city of Mokha and several Red Sea islands, gains that enabled them to control the Yemeni side of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, through which 12% of global trade transits.

Ansar Allah Pounds Saudi Airports as Yemen War Escalates -  Yemen’s Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthis, has launched multiple attacks on airports in Saudi Arabia in recent days, marking an escalation of the conflict, which was reignited by Saudi airstrikes on the Sanaa International Airport back in July.The ramped-up Ansar Allah strikes on airports came after the group warned on October 5 that Saudi airspace would no longer be safe for civilian aircraft.On Thursday, Ansar Allah military spokesman Yahya Saree announced a ballistic missile attack on the King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh. Later in the day, he announced a cruise missile strike on the same airport and said that Najran Airport and an airbase in Khamis Mushait were also targeted.According to Reuters, one of the attacks on the King Khalid Airport left a commercial aircraft belonging to Saudi state carrier Saudia Airlines heavily damaged. On Wednesday, Saudi authorities said that multiple attacks on the King Khalid Airport and the Abha International Airport killed three people, including two women, and wounded 36.In his statements on Thursday, Saree also issued a warning to workers at Saudi oil sites, suggesting an escalation in strikes on Saudi oil infrastructure was coming, and renewed his warning to airliners.“The Yemeni Armed Forces warn all employees, including experts, engineers, and workers in all Saudi oil facilities, against being in locations that represent targets for our forces, so as not to endanger their lives, whether those that have been targeted before or others,” Saree wrote on Telegram.“They also renew their warning to air navigation companies in the fields and airports, and to travelers and workers in them that were previously declared,” Saree added.Fighting continues on the ground in Yemen, with Ansar Allah advancing around the southwestern city of Taiz. Saudi-backed forces have launched a counteroffensive aimed at rolling back Ansar Allah’s gains, but there’s been no sign that it has had success despite earlier claims. US-backed Saudi airstrikes also continue to pound Yemen, and there’s been an increasing number of civilian casualties.

Pakistan and Turkey To Deploy Forces to Saudi Arabia as Yemen War Rages -  Pakistan and Turkey will deploy forces to Saudi Arabia under their new trilateral defense pact as the war in Yemen continues to escalate several months after it was reignited by Saudi airstrikes on the Sanaa International Airport. The Mecca defense pact between Turkey, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia was signed back in August, and as Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthis, has gained significant ground in Yemen and has continued heavy attacks on Saudi Arabia, Riyadh has been seeking more international support in the war.Top-level officials from the three countries, including Saudi Crown Prince Mohhamed bin Salman, attended a meeting in Riyadh and issued a joint statement after the talks that said they would “move immediately to the practical implementation of the collective defense commitments and to take the necessary measures to provide the agreed military forces and capabilities and ensure their rapid deployment in the Kingdom.”The statement added that turning the defense agreement “into practical measures demonstrates the credibility of the commitment to collective defense.”It’s unclear what role Turkish and Pakistani forces will play in the war or whether they will become directly involved. Earlier this year, Reuters reported that Pakistan had deployed a squadron of fighter jets and air defenses to Saudi Arabia, meaning that Pakistan could potentially launch airstrikes in Yemen.The US currently has more than 200 military advisors deployed in Saudi Arabia who are helping with intelligence and targeting support, and is refueling Saudi warplanes, but so far hasn’t launched direct airstrikes. Ansar Allah has warned the US against directly entering the war, saying it would lead to escalation and the closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to US shipping, a warning that would probably also apply to Turkey and Pakistan.

Houthis Bombard Saudi Air Links in Effort to Cut Kingdom Off From Rest of World – WSJ --Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militants are taking aim at Saudi Arabia’s air links to the world, rattling travelers and squeezing another key sector of the kingdom’s economy while its crucial oil industry remains under fire.The missile attacks on King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh and several southern Saudi cities threaten to choke off business travel and tourism just as the busy conference and travel season gets under way. The overlapping instability stemming from the conflicts involving the Houthis and Iran could also frustrate Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s efforts to renew a push to boost foreign investment.A major test will come with the kingdom’s flagship Future Investment Initiative summit, which is expected to draw thousands of global executives and investors to Riyadh at the end of this month. The Saudi leadership isn’t planning to cancel the event but is growing more worried about the conflict’s impact on the economy and about tight supplies of missile interceptors needed to fend off attacks, people familiar with the matter said.The kingdom has pressed the U.S. to intervene directly in the conflict, but the Trump administration has declined. Some Saudi advisers are pressing the country’s leaders, who escalated the fight in Yemen this week, to keep the door open to diplomacy with the Houthis, the people said. Thursday’s attacks on Riyadh’s airport—which left three dead, including a pilot for flagship carrier Saudia, and destroyed a passenger jet—are already disrupting air travel. Flight tracker Flightradar24 said the airport closed again Friday afternoon after disruptions the day before, and cancellations were again piling up. A number of airlines have halted flights to Riyadh, and Singapore Airlines postponed the launch of its flights to the capital until March.Many foreign consultants and other businesspeople found themselves stuck in Saudi Arabia as the weekend in the kingdom began on Friday. Some of their companies told them not to go to the airport after Thursday’s strike. One medical-sector worker who had boarded a flight home at the time of the attack said he was kept in the plane for an hour as explosions went off outside. An American defense executive who lives in Riyadh had been waiting in the airport lounge for his flight on Tuesday when Houthi attacks caused delays that would cause him to miss his connecting flight. He said he was back in the lounge Wednesday, when new explosions rattled the glass and caused everyone to jump with fright. He caught his flights but said he was worried about being able to get back on Sunday after the Thursday attack.  “The latest attacks certainly risk setting back the economic recovery,”  “Any firms considering investing in the kingdom will certainly want some clarity over whether these attacks will continue.”A new State Department warning Thursday says U.S. government officials now need special authorization to use the Riyadh airport. The U.K. warned against all but essential travel to areas of Saudi Arabia, including Riyadh.Nasser Eddin said the next few days would be crucial in determining whether companies press ahead with planned trips and events or scale back their participation.The uncertainty adds to the challenges facing Saudi efforts that were already hit hard by the war with Iran. The kingdom weathered those disruptions relatively well, thanks to a pipeline that allowed it to reroute oil across the desert to the Red Sea.But renewed hostilities with the Houthis changed the equation. The militant group began shooting at Saudi tankers. Then a drone attack in September forced the shutdown of the pipeline. It has since partially resumed operations, and exports have recovered, but renewed Houthi attacks have now disrupted air travel.

Reports: Syria May Send Troops to Yemen To Help Saudi Arabia Fight Ansar Allah - -Syria is considering sending troops, including foreign jihadists, to help Saudi Arabia fight against Ansar Allah in Yemen, according to media reports, as Riyadh continues to seek international support for the war, which it reignited in July by bombing the Sanaa International Airport.Reuters first reported that Syria, which is led by former al-Qaeda Commander Ahmed al-Sharaa, is considering providing military assistance to Saudi Arabia, which could range from “defensive aid” to actually sending troops to fight Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthis.A US official speaking to Reuters said that Saudi Arabia had requested that Syria send forces to fight Ansar Allah. The report came a day after Sharaa, formerly known by his al-Qaeda nom de guerre Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh. Shortly after Reuters published the report, Axios released its own report citing a US official who said the issue of troops came up during the meeting in Riyadh and that Sharaa was highly likely to agree to the Saudi request. MbS played a major role in normalizing Sharaa as Syria’s leader, including by arranging the first meeting between Sharaa and President Trump.Both reports said that US officials were concerned that introducing Syrian troops could inject a religious element since many Sunni Islamists, including foreign jihadists, make up the ranks of the new Syrian military following the regime change that ousted Bashar al-Assad in December 2024, while Ansar Allah is a Zaydi Shia movement. The Axios report cited another source who said that 10,000 to 20,000 fighters could be sent to fight in Yemen and that one unit under consideration includes thousands of foreign jihadists who fought under Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, an al-Qaeda offshoot that Sharaa led to power in Damascus.Ansar Allah has a history of fighting against al-Qaeda in Yemen, known as al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), and the US had briefly cooperated with the group against AQAP after it took over the capital, Sanaa, in 2014 by providing intelligence. But in March of 2015, the US backed a Saudi-led coalition against Ansar Allah.US weapons sold to Saudi Arabia and the UAE throughout the conflict ended up in the hands of militants linked to AQAP, according to a 2019 report from CNN, and the coalition was known to recruit al-Qaeda fighters in southern Yemen to fight against Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthis.

Israeli Forces Block Firefighters After Setting Fires in Southwest Syria -Israeli forces continue to operate in southwestern Syria, with incidents reported in Quneitra, Daraa, and Rif Damasq Governorates. While most of the cross-border incidents involve the Israeli military searching homes and establishing temporary checkpoints in Syrian territory, there are also increasingly destructive incidents to report. Up in Rif Damasq, Israeli troops not only entered a farmhouse near Bait Jinn, but later rigged it with explosives and blew it up. The house was reportedly abandoned, and the IDF did not explain why they felt the need to enter Syria and destroy an abandoned house.Quneitra Governorate has seen considerable damage done to rural areas, with Israeli forces damaging croplands and cutting back forests in northern Quneitra. Over the weekend, Israeli drones had reportedly been deployed to prevent local journalists from covering IDF earth-moving operations in southern Quneitra.Monday saw the destruction in Quneitra scaling up even higher, with IDF troops causing some fires by firing flares into the area near al-Hamadiyah, and then compounding the damage by preventing firefighters and other civil defense workers from reaching the area that was on fire.Israel’s forces are working on what is being called the Sufa 53 project, which will ultimately end in adding parts of southern Quneitra into the occupied Golan Heights claim of Israeli government. The territory grab is controversial, to say the least.Turkey’s Foreign Ministry was quick to issue a statement criticizing the Israel for its activities along the Sufa 53 line, urging the international community to unite to take steps to end Israel’s expansionist policies.Immediately after the ouster of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Israel invaded and occupied the UNDOF demilitarized zone between the occupied Golan Heights and the rest of Syria. Israeli officials have vowed to retain the seized territory and concerns are growing that this was only the beginning of a new territory expansion.

Lebanon PM: Extent of War Destruction Beyond State’s Capability To Recover From - -Seven months into the latest Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon, the extent of the damage is nothing short of staggering. Israeli officials have been open about using the Gaza model in Lebanon, and about a desire to make certain villages, particularly Shi’ite villages “disappear.” Prime Minister Nawaf Salam is warning that post war reconstruction, which is on hold at any rate because the war isn’t over, “exceeds the capacities of the Lebanese state and its ability to bear these burdens alone,” seeking more international aid for trying to repair the devastated south.This stood in contrast to last week’s visit by President Aoun and Lebanese Army Commander Haykal to the city of Nabatieh, where they insisted the state’s institutions remained steadfast and committed to the support of the south.  Salam’s stance is likely more realistic, as the scale of damage across southern Lebanon, the economic problems and the heavy damage to southern Lebanon’s agricultural base are war-imposed catastrophes that the relatively small nation is ill-equipped to handle on its own without substantial international aid. That aid need is clear, it’s availability less so. Lebanon struggled to get the necessary aid for reconstruction after Israel’s 2024 invasion, and hadn’t even fully recovered from that when the 2026 invasion began. There have been some efforts to raise funds for them, which haven’t been for naught but fell short of their goals. Likely, with the war still ongoing, nations are still reluctant to commit a donation to repair towns that are still actively being destroyed by the IDF.The extent of the damage of civilian infrastructure is likely a war crime, and indeed just one of many committed during this war. The New Arab described having seeing an internal document of the Lebanese government detailing some 200 pages of potential war crimes committed by Israeli forces during the war.

Smotrich: IDF ‘Thorough Cleansing’ of Lebanon Will Benefit Israel’s North for Decades - In the course of his recent speeches, Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has laid out the position calling once again for the outright annexation of much of southern Lebanon, saying that territory losses should serve as a “penalty” for Israel’s enemies for opposing them. In one speech he declared that both Gaza and Lebanon “will be ours.” During that speech, he similarly bragged that the “thorough cleansing” ongoing deep into Lebanese territory would leave the southern Lebanese with “nowhere to return to” and closed with “by the way, the world isn’t stopping us.” Israel’s most recent invasion of southern Lebanon began in early March. Seven months later, the IDF has continued to push deeper and deeper into Lebanon, and is demolishing villages, mostly Shi’ite ones, in the course of those operations.  The mass destruction of towns and villages within Lebanon has included leveling homes, badly damaging surrounding farmland, setting fires, and destroying subterranean tunnels. Smotrich bragged in his comments that Israel’s “cleansing” was thorough both above and below ground.  Smotrich is one of several far-right Israeli figures who has been advocating for annexation of the seized territories, and said he believes Israel ought to “apply permanent sovereignty” over the seized territory within Lebanon. How deep he intends that to go is not directly stated. Lebanese officials are reportedly preparing to propose an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory in stages, though so far Israeli negotiators have opposed any deals which include a concrete commitment to actually withdraw ground troops entirely from Lebanon, and have similarly opposed any ceasefire which would oblige them to stop attacking Lebanese territory.

It Took A Live-Streamed Genocide To Punch Through The Wall Of Western Apathy - Caitlin Johnstone - I never asked to know what a dismembered child looks like. Israel imposed that knowledge upon me. I never wanted to know what it looks like when military explosives blow an infant’s head off. I only know it because Israel forced me to know it. The reason the Gaza holocaust hit westerners so hard is because it punched through the wall of our shitbrained western supremacist narcissism and our vapid mainstream culture and shook us violently awake to something real and terrifying. All of a sudden the idea that our bombs are killing people in the middle east was no longer a vague abstraction sitting in the periphery of our awareness. It was a reality hitting us right in the guts in the middle of the day while we casually scrolled our phones, forcing us to run to the toilet to vomit up our lunch. It made it personal. We were being kicked in the stomach over and over again by the state of Israel with the backing of our own western governments. The abuse of the Palestinians wasn’t something that was happening exclusively to the Palestinians; to a much smaller degree, it was also something that was happening to everyone who witnessed it. Westerners aren’t accustomed to such confrontations. We are accustomed to bustling around in our mind-controlled dystopia with our first world problems and our neuroses and distractions, our attention going into treats and screens and our consumerist preferences and the petty dramas playing out in our respective social circles. Then all of a sudden we find ourselves in the bathroom puking up our sushi because our phone had just shown us the most unimaginably horrific thing we have ever seen. And we were at all times aware that all the nausea and horror and rage and disgust we experienced when witnessing the Gaza holocaust happened because of the real material actions of real material people. The Israelis were deliberately causing as much devastation as possible to advance their longstanding goal of forcibly transferring all Palestinians out of Gaza. Our leaders were deliberately stalling and equivocating from behind their podiums to buy Israel enough time to make Gaza uninhabitable. We all understood that the waking nightmare we were witnessing was not some natural disaster that was passively occurring; it was being actively inflicted by people who were fully aware of what they were doing. That’s the sort of thing that changes you as a person. Changes your whole worldview. Changes your politics. Changes your beliefs. The average westerner needs to do a lot of internal restructuring to truly reckon with the Gaza holocaust and all its implications. That, I think, has been the biggest reason why the genocide of the Palestinians has gotten so much attention and sympathy. It’s because its live-streamed nature caused it to affect us in ways other acts of mass military slaughter usually don’t. Westerners are so propaganda-addled and indoctrinated that we are largely apathetic to what our bombs are doing to human bodies on the other side of the world. It’s only when we are given some skin in the game, as in the Vietnam draft, that we start caring in any politically significant way. Gaza gave us skin in the game in the way it entered into our lives through our electronic devices and showed us things that were so jarring it left a permanent mark upon our lives. Gaza forced us to look, and forced us to see, against all the efforts the propagandists have expended trying to keep us from noticing such things. That’s why this thing isn’t going away. People are only getting angrier and angrier. The empire has spent three years scrambling around unsuccessfully trying to get us to close our eyes again, and it keeps failing and failing and failing.

Russia To Intensify Strikes on Ukraine After Zelensky Vows More Attacks on Russian Oil Refineries - The Russian Defense Ministry on Sunday vowed that it would intensify attacks on Ukrainian military sites and related infrastructure after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine would double down on its attacks on Russian oil infrastructure.  “Following Zelensky’s statement today, the Russian Armed Forces will step up strikes on military and defense industry facilities, as well as related infrastructure,” the Russian Defense Ministry said, according to TASS. The ministry also said that it launched “massive strikes” on Kyiv and other Ukrainian regions that it framed as a response to recent major Ukrainian drone attacks, including operations that disrupted the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum several months ago, and an attack that involved over 1,000 drones during Russia’s parliamentary election last month.  The ministry also accused Ukraine of targeting residential areas in Russia’s Belgorod region overnight, which it said killed and wounded civilians. On Saturday, heavy Russian strikes in Ukraine killed at least six civilians, according to Ukrainian officials, and included strikes on bridges in Kyiv.Zelensky made the comments about the oil refinery attacks in a Reuters interview, where he also claimed that Ukraine had received intelligence that said Russia planned to increase attacks on civilian infrastructure with the goal of forcing Ukrainians to flee Kyiv and other major cities.Ukraine has continued targeting Russia’s oil refineries despite President Trump calling for them to end, though the operations are known to rely on intelligence provided by the US, meaning that if Trump truly wanted them to stop, he would cut intelligence support.

Drone strike sinks ship in NATO waters as Zelenskyy warns of looming massive strike - A commercial ship sank and its crew vanished Tuesday after an apparent coordinated air-and-sea drone attack off NATO member Bulgaria, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy blamed Russia before warning Moscow was preparing a broader "massive strike." A second vessel was also heavily damaged and set ablaze inside Bulgaria’s exclusive economic zone, with a drone expert warning the dual precision strikes signaled a dangerous escalation and possible "larger invasion posture" by Russia. "They were likely using the Geran-4 aerial drone to take the vessel out or the Maran surface vehicle to take it out," Cameron Chell, founder of drone manufacturer Draganfly, told Fox News Digital on Tuesday of the first strike. "The reason it wasn't just an air vehicle or an air drone that took this ship out was that the Gerans generally come in at a pretty steep angle when they're on final attack," Chell said. "There are not really any precision drones that fly closely above the surface, which is where they would have had to hit in order to create an impact that would sink this ship fast enough," he added. "The nature of this strike suggests there was a combination of an air attack and surface attack," Chell said. The dual attack occurred roughly 70 nautical miles off the eastern Bulgarian coastal town of Byala, according to Reuters, bringing the conflict into the economic zone of a NATO member. Zelenskyy said Ukrainian intelligence and security services were working to determine the full circumstances surrounding the attack. "Our intelligence and special services are now working to establish all available information about yet another attack in the Black Sea targeting civilian vessels," he wrote on X. "Our Navy contacted its counterparts in Bulgaria, and it has been established that this was a combined Russian attack using maritime and aerial drones." Chell suggested the attack’s location and hybrid nature could serve Russia by sowing greater uncertainty across the region. "We can see the amount of geopolitical chaos that's involved, and this is exactly the type of thing that would benefit Russia in the region," Chell said. "The hybrid element here is really blurring the lines between traditional military actions," he added, describing the attack as "an expansion of strategy and tactics." "This is indicative of this larger invasion posture that seems to be unfolding for Russia," Chell said. "And a real desire, what appears to be, for Russia to take things up a notch." Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev also confirmed that aerial and maritime drones targeted two commercial vessels in shipping lanes inside Bulgaria’s EEZ, calling the attack a "gross, flagrant violation of international law," according to Reuters. The sunken vessel, identified by British maritime risk group Vanguard as the cargo ship Alfa Watan, suffered catastrophic structural damage before submerging with an undisclosed cargo and an unknown number of crew members aboard. A nearby Bulgarian ferry, the Dioscuria, diverted to the scene after witnessing an explosion and receiving distress signals, Reuters reported. Rescuers found an overturned lifeboat, life rafts and life jackets floating in the debris field. Search-and-rescue operations involving the Bulgarian Navy, Air Force and Border Police remained underway to locate the missing crew and monitor for environmental threats, the outlet said. Chell suggested the apparent coordination between the attacks was particularly significant. "Not only are you using pretty sophisticated equipment, but you're also doing it in a coordinated manner," Chell said. "These two ships were going opposite directions. One was actually just coming, and had left Ukraine the day before," he said. "These things coordinated and were struck relatively at the same time. So another level of coordination has unfolded here," Chell added. The second ship, identified by Vanguard as the general cargo vessel ABLE, caught fire after being struck while carrying grain. A Bulgarian ferry crew evacuated all 18 seafarers aboard — 11 Turkish nationals and seven Indian nationals. Two crew members suffered severe injuries and were airlifted to a medical facility in Varna, while the remaining 16 were transported safely to shore. Radev convened an emergency government session following the strikes. While acknowledging it remained unclear whether the drones originated from Russia or Ukraine, he warned of the widening scope of the war. "Such an attack within the Bulgarian exclusive economic zone is absolutely unacceptable," Radev told reporters."If this war is not ended in time, it will continue to expand its spatial scope and increase the risk of even a global conflict." Chell said striking the two ships inside Bulgaria’s exclusive economic zone could also have the effect of disrupting a crucial shipping corridor and creating fear among commercial operators. "It all adds up to a perfect little scenario for the Russians to create chaos there, not just to disrupt the lane of economics for the region and in particular for Ukraine — a lifeline," Chell said. "The Russians are really taking a playbook out of the Iranians who have basically created enough chaos in the Strait of Hormuz where the operators can't take the chance to put their ships through there," he added. The strikes came amid a surge in attacks on commercial shipping in the Black Sea, including an incident off Romania’s coast Monday in which two people died in a ship fire.

Two People Killed in Moscow Region as Ukraine Fires Nearly 900 Drones at Russia - At least two people were killed in Russia’s Moscow region on Tuesday as Ukrainian forces launched one of their biggest drone attacks on Russia of the year. The Russian Defense Ministry said that its forces intercepted 868 Ukrainian drones over multiple Russian regions. “Last night, drones were shot down over the Belgorod, Bryansk, Kaluga, Kursk, Lipetsk, Oryol, Ryazan, Smolensk, Tver, Tula and Moscow regions, as well as Crimea and the Sea of Azov,” the Russian news agency TASS reported.Andrey Vorobyov, governor of Russia’s Moscow Oblast, the region that surrounds the capital city, wrote on Telegram that 165 drones were shot down over 16 municipalities in the region. He said that two people were killed — a 71-year-old man and a 20-year-old man — and nine were injured.“Forty-seven private homes were damaged in seven municipalities: Volokolamsk, Stupino, Dmitrov, Naro-Fominsk, Serpukhov, Domodedovo, and Istra,” Vorobyov wrote.An oil storage tank was also reportedly hit in the Moscow region as Ukraine has continued attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, operations that are supported by US intelligence despite President Trump’s calls for an end to such attacks.Ukraine’s ramped-up drone attacks inside Russia have resulted in an escalation of Russian strikes on Ukraine, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Tuesday that he was preparing for a massive Russian attack and called for more military aid from the US and Europe.“We’ve got updated intel on Russia’s preparations for a massive strike. I ask you, please, to take care of yourselves and respond to missile threat alerts,” Zelensky wrote on X.“Ukrainian services and our Air Force are ready to respond – as much as our defenses allow. And a lot depends on our partners – every country in the world that has the defensive capabilities we need and can provide them to us. It’s very important that there be the political will to do this – particularly in the United States and in Europe,” he added.

Russia's Crown Jewel Refinery Ablaze After Drone Strike, Data Center Also Hit In War First - Ukrainian drones have hit a major Russian industrial hub and oil refinery which lies very far away from the front lines of fighting, in Western Siberia, north of the Kazakh border.  The Omsk Oil refinery and industrial complex is located well over 1500 miles from the Ukrainian border. Regional Governor Vitaly Khotsenko announced Telegram that several drones were shot down by air defenses, but that one made it through to impact.Ukraine's General Staff was quick to own up to the Thursday attack, stating, "The destruction of such facilities is the exercise by Ukraine of its inalienable right to self-defense in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter and is aimed at reducing the military-economic potential of the Russian Federation."While the extent of potential damage to the refinery itself remains unknown, images from local residents showed explosions and fire in the area near the oil refinery.Emergency crews are active at the scene of the facility, Russia's largest, which is owned by Gazprom Neft   Multiple channels report a sustained Ukrainian long-range drone attack on Russia’s largest oil refinery in Omsk, with 15 or more explosions so far. The governor confirms an ongoing drone attack in the region. Gazprom Neft’s refinery can process about 22 million tonnes annually, roughly 440,000 barrels per day, or about 1/15th of Russia’s total refining capacity. #OSINT #Russia— OSINT Intuit™ (@UKikaski) October 8, 2026  The same remote refinery was forced to halt operations when it came under a similar long-range drone attack previously in July. Bloomberg provides some additional details:

• In a separate statement, Ukrainian drone maker Fire Point said Ukraine’s forces attacked Russia’s largest oil refinery, over 2,500 km from the border, with upgraded FP-1 drones, confirming a hit
• Omsk refinery, owned by Gazprom Neft, processed ~22m tons of crude (~440k b/d) in 2024, producing 5m tons of gasoline and 8m tons of diesel.

Some regional reports have said that motorists in the same city have been forming long queues at gas stations, amid what has already been a situation of national fuel shortages. Ukraine reportedly struck Russia’s Omsk oil refinery, located beyond the Ural Mountains, more than 3,000 km from the Ukrainian border. It is Russia’s largest oil refinery. https://t.co/cY6xGxqSHY  Also, in the overnight hours there's been another reported first of the war: Russian tech giant Yandex has reported its data center in the town of Sasovo, in Ryazan region, was attacked and caught fire."The attack marks the first confirmed strike against Russian data infrastructure since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, weeks after Moscow launched attacks against Ukrainian data centers," The Moscow Times underscores. Russia has itself long been going after data centers in Ukraine, however. The Kremlin has argued that these data centers support Ukrainian military operations, with the same accusations now being hurled the other way as well.

'Massive' Russian Attack on Ukraine Kills at Least 25 -   At least 25 civilians were killed during a major Russian bombardment across Ukraine on Wednesday, according to Ukrainian officials, strikes that came a day after Ukrainian forces launched nearly 900 drones into Russia. The majority of the dead were killed by strikes that hit an apartment block in Pryluky, a city in Ukraine’s northern Chernihiv Oblast. According to the Main Directorate of the National Police in Chernihiv, at least 19 people, including five children, were killed by the attack.Russia took credit for strikes in Pryluky, but the Russian Defense Ministry claimed that the attacks targeted an “industrial enterprise” that “manufactures and stores FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile components.” The Russian Defense Ministry said that its “massive” attacks across Ukraine targeted “defense industry enterprises” in the Kyiv, Chernihiv, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, and Kharkiv regions. It also claimed attacks on “port and ship repair infrastructure in the Odessa region, and sea vessels operating in the interests” of the Ukrainian military. Ukraine had been expecting the attack, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Tuesday that a “massive” Russian strike was coming, but Ukraine’s lack of Patriot missiles and other advanced air defenses makes it essentially defenseless against Russian ballistic missiles. Russia has escalated its bombardment of Ukraine in response to the massive Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian territory, and the policies have resulted in more civilian casualties on both sides. Rodion Miroshnik, a Russian Foreign Ministry official, said on Tuesday that over the past week, Ukrainian drone attacks have killed 29 Russian civilians over the past week.

At Least 33 Killed as Russian Glide Bomb Hits Buses in Eastern Ukraine - At least 33 people were killed, and 18 were injured when a Russian bomb exploded next to passenger buses in Kramatorsk, a city in the Ukrainian-controlled part of the Donetsk Oblast near the frontline, according to Ukrainian officials. Police identified the weapon as a glide bomb and said it hit when two city buses were operating at the time. So far, Russia hasn’t commented on the attack.After the attack, Ukrainian officials accused Russia of deliberately targeting civilians, allegations that Russia has previously denied. But civilian casualties in Ukraine have been increasing as Moscow has intensified its bombardments in response to Ukraine’s massive drone attacks, which are also killing civilians.Buses have also been hit by Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia and Russian-controlled areas of Ukraine, according to Russian officials. The deadliest incidents included a June 3 strike that hit a bus in Russian-controlled Donetsk, killing eight civilians, and a July 20 attack that hit a bus in Russia’s Belgorod region, killing five civilians. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that the Thursday attack brought the death toll from Russia’s attacks in Ukraine over two days to over 70, and lashed out at the US over Secretary of State Marco Rubio calling the war a “stalemate” and the Trump administration’s steps to open some economic ties with Moscow.“So where’s the truth here, where’s the honesty? Where’s the stalemate? … That’s called unwillingness,” Zelensky said. “One cannot, on ​the one hand, negotiate with the Russians about future economic projects, whilst on the other hand say that we find ourselves in some sort of … diplomatic ‌stalemate.”