week ending Jul 20

Top Fed officials say they are 'closer' to cutting interest rates (Reuters) - Top Federal Reserve officials said on Wednesday the U.S. central bank is "closer" to cutting interest rates given inflation's improved trajectory and a labor market in better balance, remarks that set the stage for a first reduction in borrowing costs in September. Fed Governor Christopher Waller and New York Fed President John Williams both noted the shortening horizon toward looser monetary policy, with Waller highlighting it in a speech at the Kansas City Fed and Williams voicing it in a Wall Street Journal interview.Separately, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said he is "very encouraged" that declines in inflation had begun to broaden. "I'd like to see that continue," he told a business group in Maryland.The remarks are the latest in a rush this week of commentary from top U.S. central bank officials - including Fed Chair Jerome Powell - to note their increased confidence that the disinflationary trend that began last year is continuing, despite a short-lived bump in inflation earlier this year.Price pressures appear to be easing across the board, the Fed officials said, with goods prices falling, housing cost increases slowing, and more moderate wage growth feeding into a long-awaited easing of price increases in the services sector.Williams and Waller appeared to rule out a rate cut at the Fed's July 30-31 policy meeting, a view reflected in financial markets that are now pricing the probability of a move at that meeting at less than 5%.Waller listed September through December as the potential time frame when conditions for a rate cut could be right, omitting July.In his WSJ interview, Williams said, "We're actually going to learn a lot between July and September. We'll get two months of inflation data."All three policymakers who spoke on Wednesday were "pointing to September" for a start to the policy easing, Karim Basta, chief economist at III Capital Management, wrote.Financial markets agree, and on Wednesday kept bets the U.S. central bank, which has held its policy rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the past year, will cut borrowing costs again in November and December, bringing the benchmark policy rate to the 4.50%-4.75% range by the end of 2024. Waller, who in May had said he would need several more months of improved inflation data to convince him that rate cuts would be warranted, said data last week showing the first monthly drop in the consumer price index in four years "was the second month of very good news."

Waller says Fed getting 'closer' to cutting rates, not there yet — Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said the economy is getting closer to a point where the central bank can reduce borrowing costs but indicated he'd like to see a "bit more evidence" inflation is on a sustained downward path. "Current data are consistent with achieving a soft landing, and I will be looking for data over the next couple months to buttress this view," Waller said in prepared remarks Wednesday at the Kansas City Fed. "While I don't believe we have reached our final destination, I do believe we are getting closer to the time when a cut in the policy rate is warranted." Waller adds to a growing chorus of officials — including Chair Jerome Powell and New York Fed President John Williams — who have signaled the central bank is moving closer to cutting rates but is not ready to do so quite yet. Policymakers will meet next on July 30-31, but investors are betting they won't begin rate reductions until their September gathering. Waller, like most of his colleagues, didn't offer guidance on the exact timing of such a move. Instead, he walked through how different scenarios could alter the path of policy. The most likely, he said, is that inflation comes in "uneven" — not as good as recent reports but still consistent with overall progress toward bringing inflation down to the 2% target. A rate cut in the near future is more uncertain in that scenario, he said. Another potential path, however, is that inflation data continue to be "very favorable." In that case, Waller said, "I could envision a rate cut in the not-too-distant future. "After a first-quarter pickup in price pressures, recent data have shown slowing inflation. The jobs market is still showing steady gains, but unemployment has gradually ticked higher. 'Sweet spot' Waller said the labor market is in a "sweet spot" where job growth is not excessive and wage increases, in his view, are nearly consistent with stable prices. He noted that layoff rates have been steady around 1%, and the unemployment rate, while higher, remains historically low. "To me, this is all evidence of labor supply and demand in balance," he said. Even so, the Fed governor added that there is more "upside risk to unemployment than we have seen for a long time" and he said he will be paying "close attention" to the employment side of the central bank's mandate.

Traders see the odds of a Fed rate cut by September at 100% --Traders are now 100% certain the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by September.There are now 93.3% odds that the Fed's target range for the federal funds rate, its key rate, will be lowered by a quarter percentage point to 5% to 5.25% in September from the current 5.25% to 5.50%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. And there are 6.7% odds that the rate will be a half percentage point lower in September, accounting for some traders believing the central bank will cut at its meeting at the end of July and again in September, says the tool. Taken together, you get the 100% odds.The catalyst for the change in odds was the consumer price index update for June announced last week, which showed a 0.1% decrease from the prior month. That put the annual inflation rate at 3%, the lowest in three years. Odds that rates would be cut in September were about 70% a month ago.The CME FedWatch Tool computes the probabilities based on trading in fed funds futures contracts at the exchange, where traders are placing their bets on the level of the effective fed funds rate in 30-day increments. Simply put, this is a reflection of where traders are putting their money. Actual real-life probability of rates remaining where they are today in September are not zero percent, but what this means is that no traders out there are willing to put actual money on the line to bet on that.Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's recent hints have also cemented traders' belief that the central bank will act by September. On Monday, Powell said the Fed wouldn't wait for inflation to get all the way to its 2% target rate before it began cutting, because of the lag effects of tightening.The Fed is looking for "greater confidence" that inflation will return to the 2% level, he said."What increases that confidence in that is more good inflation data, and lately here we have been getting some of that," added Powell. The Fed next decides on interest rates on July 31 and again on Sept 18. It doesn't meet on rates in August.

Interest rates should remain elevated, says IMF Interest rates set by central banks will continue to remain high for longer than expected, because inflation is not coming down as rapidly as previously hoped for. This is the main conclusion to emerge from the update by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) of its outlook for the global economy issued on Tuesday. In an interview with the Financial Times on the report, the IMF’s chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said central bank officials “should be ready for more bumps in the road,” as they seek to push down the inflation rate. He said that rising service price pressures in both the US and Europe were “persistent,” despite the lowering of overall inflation. Where upside risks for inflation have materialised, the IMF update said central banks should “refrain from easing too early and remain open to further tightening should it become necessary.” But the maintenance of higher rates will have consequences. “The risk of elevated inflation has raised the prospects for high-for-even-longer interest rates, which in turn increases external, fiscal, and financial risks.” Outlining some of those risks, it warned that higher US interest rates, which tend to push up the value of the dollar, will lead to global interest rate disparities. This “could disrupt capital flows and impede planned monetary easing, which could adversely impact growth.” Under conditions where interest rates remain high, there was a need for governments to cut spending. As the update put it: “Persistently high interest rates could raise borrowing costs further and affect financial stability if fiscal improvements do not offset higher real rates amid lower potential growth.” Translated from the economic jargon, this means that higher interest rates are lifting the interest bill paid by governments on their debt, so they need to cut spending in order that the ever-rising debt mountain, especially in the US, does not lead to increased financial turbulence. To underscore the point, with its eye firmly fixed on the US November elections, it warned of “significant swings in economic policy,” which entailed “fiscal profligacy risks” that would worsen “debt dynamics.” These issues were commented on by Gourinchas in a blog on the IMF update. In a call for government spending cuts—not on military spending, which the IMF recognises as untouchable, but on social services—he said stronger “fiscal buffers” were needed to provide the resources necessary to address unexpected shocks. “However,” he continued, “too little is being done, magnifying economic policy uncertainty. Projected fiscal consolidations [the code phrase for spending cuts] are largely insufficient in too many countries. It is concerning that a country like the United States, at full employment, maintains a fiscal stance that pushes its debt-to-GDP ratio steadily higher, with risks to both domestic and global economy. The increasing US reliance on short-term funding is also worrisome.” He warned that with higher debt, slower growth and larger deficits it would not take much for “debt trajectories to become much less comfortable in many places, especially if markets send government bond spreads higher, with risks for financial stability.”

Private data has a bigger role in reading inflation, Fed official says - Private data sources are playing a key role in how the Federal Reserve is tracking housing costtrends and other key economic indicators, according to a top Fed official. Fed Gov. Adriana Kugler said in a speech Tuesday on data measurement that traditional government surveys can be slow and reliant upon outdated methodologies. She also noted that falling response rates have made findings less accurate. "While these challenges in traditional data that I have described may take some time to be addressed, I am encouraged by the explosion in data produced by the private sector over the past decade or so that can greatly enhance our understanding of the economy," Kugler said. "Such data give an opportunity to measure economic developments with greater timeliness, at a higher frequency, and with more granularity."Kugler said the Fed highlighted hiring trends and market rents as factors measured more quickly, and potentially more accurately, by private analytics groups than by government entities.She said that housing services have been a "big reason" why measured inflation has remained above the Fed's 2% target. But, because trends in this cost category are tracked via a survey of recently signed leases, "the official measures can significantly lag current market conditions" — by months or even years."That is why policymakers can also rely on current market rent data, showing what landlords charge new tenants, information that is available from multiple private-sector sources," she said. "Those data can provide some early signal of where official housing inflation series are likely headed."In her remarks, which were delivered at a seminar hosted by the National Association for Business Economics, Kugler noted that some government pricing surveys are in need of updates to better reflect the current economy. She highlighted that while manufacturing and agricultural factors are well represented, more recent developments such as so-called "gig" workers are not."I believe the statistical agencies grapple with these issues, and it takes time to lay the groundwork and develop new data series, but this challenge is a real one," she said. "If reports are built for the past, that may mean they struggle to capture big developments today and in the future, such as the changing nature of where and how people work or the rising use of artificial intelligence technology." Kugler also called for innovative solutions to increase response rates for government-conducted surveys to ensure the data is sufficiently representative of market conditions.She added that forward-looking surveys, many of which are conducted by nongovernmental entities, are also an essential tool for her and other policymakers."I pay close attention to these surveys, because they are forward-looking and help inform where behaviors by businesses and households may be trending," she said.

Powell commits to finish Fed chair term, stays mum on future plans -Regardless of the outcome of this fall's presidential election, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell isn't going anywhere — at least not for two years. During an onstage interview at the Economic Club of Washington, D.C. on Monday afternoon, Powell confirmed that he would complete his four-year term as the top official within the Fed Board of Governors, which ends in May 2026. But he declined to speculate what might happen after that. "I have nothing for you on that today," Powell told his interviewer, David Rubenstein.Rubenstein is the co-founder and co-owner of the Carlyle Group, the Washington, D.C.-based private equity firm where Powell spent much of his private sector career before being nominated to the Fed board by then-President Barack Obama in 2012.Powell's commitment to the position comes as Washington prepares for a possible second term for President Donald Trump. Although Trump nominated him to serve as Fed chair in 2018, the former president's opinion of Powell quickly soured. In 2019, he expressed his displeasure with the central bank's move to raise interest rates. Trump publicly mused about firing Powell from the position or stripping him of his chairmanship — though it is unclear if he would have had the legal authority to do so.

Fed's Beige Book: "Slight to modest pace of growth" -- Fed's Beige Book (excepts) Economic activity maintained a slight to modest pace of growth in a majority of Districts this reporting cycle. However, while seven Districts reported some level of increase in activity, five noted flat or declining activity—three more than in the prior reporting period. Wages continued to grow at a modest to moderate pace in most Districts, while prices were generally reported to have risen modestly. Household spending was little changed this period according to most District banks. Auto sales varied across Districts this cycle, but some Districts noted that sales were lower due in part to a cyberattack on dealerships and high interest rates. Most Districts saw soft demand for consumer and business loans. Reports on residential and commercial real estate markets varied, but most banks reported only slight changes, if any, in recent weeks. Travel and tourism grew steadily and was on par with seasonal expectations. Agricultural conditions varied in tandem with sporadic droughts across the nation. Districts also reported widely disparate trends in manufacturing activity ranging from brisk downturn to moderate growth. Retail restocking spurred slight growth in transportation activity. Meanwhile, tight capacity in ocean shipping led to a surge in spot rates. Expectations for the future of the economy were for slower growth over the next six months due to uncertainty around the upcoming election, domestic policy, geopolitical conflict, and inflation. On balance, employment rose at a slight pace in the most recent reporting period. Most Districts reported employment was flat or up slightly, while a few Districts reported modest employment growth. Several Districts reported declines in employment in the manufacturing sector due to slowdowns in new orders. Skilled-worker availability remained a challenge across all Districts; however, several Districts reported some improvement in labor supply conditions. Additionally, labor turnover was lower, which reduced demand to find new workers. Looking ahead, contacts in several Districts expect to be more selective on who they hire and not backfill all open positions. Wages grew at a modest to moderate pace in most Districts. However, several Districts reported some slowing of wage growth due to increased worker availability and less competition for workers. Prices increased at a modest pace overall, with a couple Districts noting only slight increases.

The Folly of Empire and the Albatross of Debt - by David Stockman - Empire is bankrupting America. The true fiscal cost of the national security budget is now upwards of $1.3 trillion per year (counting veterans expense and international operations and aid), but there is no way to pay for it. That’s because the 78-million strong Baby Boomers are in the driver’s seat of American politics. They plainly will not permit the $3.5 trillion per year retirement and health care entitlements-driven Welfare State to be curtailed. At the same time, Washington has become the War Capital of the World where the ruling UniParty insists that the massive fiscal claims of the Warfare State are non-negotiable. Indeed, during 2017-2020 the Trumpite/GOP already sealed the deal. Trump massively increased the Warfare State budget, even as the Congressional GOP refused to reform Social Security and Medicare and proved to be utterly incapable of even laying a glove politically on Obamacare/Medicaid, Food Stamps or any of the other Welfare State entitlements. Meanwhile, the GOP remained all-in for its anti-tax allergy, thereby refusing to tax the American public to close Washington’s yawning deficits. Accordingly, the Federal budget is now simply on a doomsday track. With interest rates finally normalizing and the debt compounding at rates far higher than the growth of nominal GDP, interest costs on the public debt is headed into the fiscal stratosphere. Indeed, the outlook is now so dire that the CBO doesn’t even dare print the long-term debt numbers. Instead, it attempts to camouflage the catastrophe ahead by expressing the data in more cosmetic “% of GDP” terms without actually printing the underlying GDP figures. Yet the data to derive those figures are all there in the fine print. It turns out that in its latest long-term outlook CBO projected that nominal GDP would grow by the modest figure of 3.8% per annum for the next 30 years. In whole numbers that puts the nominal GDP at $85 trillion by 2054; and applying the 172% of GDP figure for the public debt results in a sum of $146 trillion! That’s not a typo. Under the CBO’s Rosy Scenario for the next three decades the embedded fiscal policy will result in a debt so gargantuan that the figure cannot even be printed in official government documents. That is to say, America is racing toward a debt Armageddon at $146 trillion—implying interest expense of $7.5 trillion per year even at the current weighted average yield on the US Treasury debt curve. Unfortunately, the generation which marched on the Pentagon in 1968 against the insanity and barbarism of LBJ’s Vietnam War has long since abandoned the cause of peace. So doing, boomers have acquiesced in the final ascendancy of the Warfare State, which grew like Topsy once the US became the world’s sole superpower after the Soviet Union disappeared into the dustbin of history in 1991. Yet there is a reason why the end of the 77-year world war which incepted with the “guns of August” did not enable the world to resume the pre-1914 status quo ante of relative peace and capitalism-fueled global prosperity. To wit, the hoary ideology of American exceptionalism and the Indispensable Nation was also, ironically, liberated from the shackles of cold war realism when the iron curtain came tumbling down. Consequently, it burst into a Washington-based quest for unadulterated global hegemony. In short order (under Bush the Elder and the Clintons) Washington morphed into the War Capital of the World, and became an imperial beehive not only of militarism, but of an endless complex of think-tanks, NGOs, advisories and consultancies, “law firms”, lobbies and racketeers. The unspeakable prosperity of Washington flows from that Imperial beehive. And it is the Indispensable Nation meme that provides the political adhesive that binds the Washington political class to the work of Empire and to provisioning the massive fiscal appetites of the Warfare State. Needless to say, Empire is a terrible thing because it is the health of the state and the profound enemy of capitalist prosperity and constitutional liberty. It thrives and metastasizes by abandoning the republican verities of non-intervention abroad and peaceful commerce with all the nations of the world in favor of the self-appointed role of Global Hegemon. Rather than homeland defense, the policy of Empire is that of international busybody, military hegemon and brutal enforcer of Washington’s writs, sanctions, red lines and outlawed regimes. There is nothing more emblematic of that betrayal of republican non-interventionism than the sundry hot spots which dog the Empire today. These include the Ukrainian proxy war with Russia, various regime change fiascos in the middle east, the failed, bloody 20-year occupation of Afghanistan, the meddling of the US Seventh Fleet in the South China Sea, and, most especially, Washington’s endless contretemps in Iran. As to the latter, there is absolutely no reason for the Empire’s attack on Iran. The proverbial Martian, in fact, would be sorely perplexed about why Washington is always marching toward the brink of war with Iran’s puritanical and authoritarian but relatively powerless religious rulers. After all, Iran didn’t violate the 2014 nuke deal (JPAOC) by the lights of any credible authority – or by even less than credible ones like the CIA. Nor by the same consensus of authorities has it even had a research program for nuclear weaponization since 2003. Likewise, its modest GDP of $41o billion is equal to just five days of US output, thereby hardly constituting an industrial platform from which its theocratic rulers could plausibly menace America’s homeland. In short, Washington’s relentless economic war and political, diplomatic and military pressure on Iran is an exercise in global hegemony, not territorial self-defense of the American homeland. It is a testament to the manner in which the historic notion of national defense has morphed into Washington’s arrogant claim that it constitutes the “Indispensable Nation” which purportedly stands as mankind’s bulwark against global disorder among nations. Needless to say, Iran is just one typical case in point of the Indispensable Nation in action. Yet the other hot spots of the moment are no less exercises in the hegemonic aggression which inexorably flows from it. Thus, Washington triggered the Ukrainian carnage by sponsoring, funding and instantly recognizing the February 2014 coup that overthrew a Russia-friendly government, replacing it with one that is militantly nationalistic and bitterly antagonistic to Russia. And it did so for the most superficial and historically ignorant reason imaginable. Namely, it objected to the decision of Ukraine’s prior government in late 2013 to align itself economically and politically with its historic hegemon in Moscow rather than the EU and NATO. Yet the fairly elected and constitutionally legitimate government of Ukraine then led by Viktor Yanukovych had gone that route mainly because it got a better deal from Moscow than was being demanded by the fiscal torture artists of the IMF. Needless to say, the ensuing US sponsored putsch arising from the mobs on the street of Kiev in February 2014 re-opened deep national wounds. Ukraine’s bitter divide between Russian-speakers in the east and on the Black Sea rim and Ukrainian nationalists in the center and west dates back to Stalin’s brutal rein in Ukraine during the 1930s and Ukrainian collusion with Hitler’s Wehrmacht on its way to Stalingrad and back during the 1940s. It was the memory of the latter nightmare, in fact, which triggered in March 2014 the fear-driven outbreak of Russian separatism in the Donbas and the 96% referendum vote in Crimea to formally re-affiliate with mother Russia. In this context, even a passing familiarity with Russian history and geography would remind that Ukraine and Crimea are Moscow’s business, not Washington’s. In the first place, there is nothing at stake in the Ukraine that matters. During the last 700 years it has been a meandering set of borders in search of a country. In fact, the intervals in which the Ukraine existed as an independent nation have been few and far between. Invariably, its rulers, petty potentates and corrupt politicians made deals with or surrendered to every outside power that came along. These included the Lithuanians, Turks, Poles, Austrians, Muscovites and Czars, among others. Indeed, in modern times Ukraine largely functioned as an integral part of Mother Russia, serving as its breadbasket and iron and steel crucible under czars and commissars alike. Given this history, the idea that Ukraine should be actively and aggressively induced to join NATO was just plain nuts. The allegedly “occupied” territory of Crimea, in fact, was actually purchased from the Ottomans by Catherine the Great in 1783, thereby satisfying the longstanding quest of the Russian Czars for a warm-water port. Over the ages Sevastopol then emerged as a great naval base at the strategic tip of the Crimean peninsula, where it became home to the mighty Black Sea Fleet of the Czars and then the Soviet Union, too. Crimea became part of the Ukraine only by writ of one of the most vicious and reprehensible states in human history – the former Soviet Union: On April 26, 1954: The decree of the Presidium of the USSR Supreme Soviet transferring the Crimea Oblast from the Russian SFSR to the Ukrainian SSR… Taking into account the integral character of the economy, the territorial proximity and the close economic and cultural ties between the Crimea Province and the Ukrainian SSR… That’s right. Washington’s hypocritical and tendentious accusations against Russia’s re-absorption of Crimea imply that the dead-hand of the Soviet presidium must be defended at all costs – as if the security of North Dakota depended upon it!

Ukraine Demands 25 Patriot Batteries & More F-16s From Its Allies -According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, his country needs more missiles and fighter planes than promised to defend its airspace.“In order to ensure the full protection of Ukraine, in the opinion of our soldiers, we need 25 Patriot systems,” the head of state stressed at a press conference in Kyiv. However, Zelensky did not mention how many Patriot air defense systems Ukraine currently has. He claimed that his country needs other weapons systems of different ranges and capabilities for comprehensive air defense; he also noted that at the NATO summit in Washington, Ukraine’s allies had offered five additional Patriot systems with similar capabilities.A month earlier, during the G7 summit in Italy, he had said that at least seven Patriot systems were needed. One Patriot battery costs $1 billion, while missiles are at least $3 million apiece.Since the start of the war on Feb. 24, 2022, Ukraine has received at least four Patriot systems.However, according to press reports, several launch sites have been damaged or destroyed by Russian air strikes.As for the F-16 fighter jets, Zelensky said they would be delivered in two waves, in the summer and by the end of the year. However, the Ukrainian leader acknowledged that the fighter jets alone will not change the course of the war, given the much larger Russian air force. Zelensky also said that Russia should attend the second international peace summit, for which a date has not yet been set, after Moscow was not represented at the first such meeting in Switzerland.

Russia Says It May Deploy Nuclear Missiles in Response to New US Missile Deployment to Germany - Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said Thursday that Moscow won’t rule out deploying nuclear missiles in response to the US planning to deploy missile systems to Germany in 2026 that were previously banned by the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty.“I don’t rule anything out,” Ryabkov said when asked about the possibility of a nuclear deployment.Ryabkov went on to reference Kaliningrad, the Russian Oblast on the Baltic Sea that’s wedged between Lithuania and Poland and separated from the rest of Russia. He said the territory “has long attracted the unhealthy attention of our opponents.”Hinting Russia could respond to the US deployment by sending weapons to Kaliningrad, Ryabkov said, “Kaliningrad is no exception in terms of our 100 percent determination to do everything necessary to push back those who may harbor aggressive plans and who try to provoke us to take certain steps that are undesirable for anyone and are fraught with further complications.”The INF, which the US withdrew from in 2019, prohibited land-based missile systems with a range between 310 and 3,400 miles. The planned US deployment to Germany includes a land-based version of nuclear-capable Tomahawk missiles, which have a range of about 1,000 miles and are primarily used by US Navy ships and submarines.The US announced the deployment during last week’s NATO summit in Washington and said it would also include SM-6 missiles and “developmental hypersonic weapons.” Based on the statement, the US likely plans to deploy a Typhon launcher, a covert system concealed in a 40-foot shipping container that can fire Tomahawks and SM-6 missiles. The SM-6 can hit targets up to 290 miles away, below the levels previously banned by the INF.When the US withdrew from the INF treaty, it claimed Russia was violating the agreement by developing the ground-launched 9M729 cruise missile. Russian officials denied the missile was a violation, saying it had a maximum range of 298 miles.Russia also said the US was violating the INF by establishing Aegis Ashore missile defense systems in Romania and Poland. The systems use Mk-41 vertical launchers, which can fit Tomahawk missiles. During the NATO summit, the US also announced that its Aegis system in Poland is now operational.The US refused to negotiate with Russia on the INF issues, and the Trump administration tore up the treaty in August 2019 and began testing previously banned missile systems almost immediately after. It was clear the US exited the treaty so it could deploy intermediate-range missiles near China, leading Russia to propose a moratorium on the deployment of INF missiles in Europe. But the US never accepted the offer.

NATO's Endgame Appears to Be Nuclear War - The world is at its most dangerous moment since the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. Back then, however, the fear of total destruction consumed the public; today, few people seem even to be aware of this possibility.It is easily imaginable that nuclear war could break out between Russia (and perhaps China) and the West, yet politicians continue to escalate tensions, place hundreds of thousands of troops at “high readiness,” and attack military targets inside Russia, even while ordinary citizens blithely go on with their lives.The situation is without parallel in history.Consider the following facts. A hostile military alliance, now including even Sweden and Finland, is at the very borders of Russia. How are Russian leaders – whose country was almost destroyed by Western invasion twice in the 20th century – supposed to react to this? How would Washington react if Mexico or Canada belonged to an enormous, expansionist, and highly belligerent anti-U.S. military alliance?As if expanding NATO to include Eastern Europe wasn’t provocative enough, Washington began to send billions of dollars’ worth of military aid to Ukraine in 2014, to “improve interoperability with NATO,” in the words of the Defense Department. Why this Western involvement in Ukraine, which, as Barack Obama said while president, is “a core Russian interest but not an American one”? One reason was given by Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) in a recent moment of startling televised candor: Ukraine is “sitting on $10 to $12 trillion of critical minerals… I don’t want to give that money and those assets to Putin to share with China.”As The Washington Post has reported: “Ukraine harbors some of the world’s largest reserves of titanium and iron ore, fields of untapped lithium, and massive deposits of coal. Collectively, they are worth tens of trillions of dollars.” Ukraine also has colossal reserves of natural gas and oil, in addition to neon, nickel, beryllium, and other critical rare earth metals. For NATO’s leadership, Russia and, in particular, China can’t be permitted access to these resources. The war in Ukraine must, therefore, continue indefinitely, and negotiations with Russia mustn’t be pursued.Meanwhile, as Ukraine was being de facto integrated into NATO in the years before 2022, the United States put into operation an anti-ballistic-missile site in Romania in 2016. As Benjamin Abelow notes in How the West Brought War to Ukraine, the missile launchers that the ABM system uses can accommodate nuclear-tipped offensive weapons like the Tomahawk cruise missile. “Tomahawks,” he points out, “have a range of 1,500 miles, can strike Moscow and other targets deep inside Russia, and can carry hydrogen bomb warheads with selectable yields up to 150 kilotons, roughly 10 times that of the atomic bomb that destroyed Hiroshima.” Poland nowboasts a similar ABM site.American assurances that these anti-missile bases are defensive in nature, to protect against an (incredibly unlikely) attack from Iran, can hardly reassure Russia, given the missile launchers’ capability to launch offensive weapons.In another bellicose move, the Trump administration in 2019 unilaterally withdrew from the 1987 Treaty on Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces. Russia responded by proposing that the U.S. declare a moratorium on the deployment of short- and intermediate-range nuclear missiles in Europe, saying it wouldn’t deploy such missiles as long as NATO members didn’t. Washington dismissed these proposals, which upset some European leaders. “Has the absence of dialogue with Russia,” French PresidentEmmanuel Macron said, “made the European continent any safer? I don’t think so.”The situation is especially dangerous given what experts call “warhead ambiguity.” As senior Russian military officers have said, “There will be no way to determine if an incoming ballistic missile is fitted with a nuclear or a conventional warhead, and so the military will see it as a nuclear attack” that warrants a nuclear retaliation. A possible misunderstanding could thus plunge the world into nuclear war.So now we’re more than two years into a proxy war with Russia that has killed hundreds of thousands of people and has seen Ukraine even more closely integrated into the structures of NATO than it was before. And the West continues to inch ever closer to the nuclear precipice. Ukraine has begun using U.S. missiles to strike Russian territory, including defensive(not only offensive) missile systems. This summer, Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway, and Belgium will begin sending F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, and Denmark and the Netherlandshave said there will be no restrictions on the use of these planes to strike targets in Russia. F-16s are able to deliver nuclear weapons, and Russiahas said the planes will be considered a nuclear threat.Bringing the world even closer to terminal crisis, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg states that 500,000 troops are at “high readiness,” and in the next five years, NATO allies will “acquire thousands of air defense and artillery systems, 850 modern aircraft – mostly fifth-generation F-35s – and also a lot of other high-end capabilities.” Macron has morphed into one of Europe’s most hawkish leaders, with plans to send military instructors to Ukraine very soon. At the same time, NATO is holding talksabout taking more nuclear weapons out of storage and placing them on standby.Where all this is heading is unclear, but what’s obvious is that Western leaders are acting with reckless disregard for the future of humanity. Their bet is that Russian President Vladimir Putin will never deploy nuclear weapons, despite his many threats to do so and recent Russian military drills to deploy tactical nuclear weapons. Given that Russian use of nuclear warheads might well precipitate a nuclear response by the West, the fate of humanity hangs on the restraint and rationality of one man, Putin – a figure who is constantly portrayed by Western media and politicians as an irrational, bloodthirsty monster. So the human species is supposed to place its hope for survival in someone we’re told is a madman, who leads a state that feels besieged by the most powerful military coalition in history, apparently committed to its demise. Maybe the madmen aren’t in the Russian government but rather in NATO governments?

Russia Says 'Let's Be Realistic' About Chances of Trump Ending Ukraine War - On Thursday, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said she noted comments from former President Donald Trump and his running mate J.D. Vance about ending the war in Ukraine but said Moscow needed to be “realistic” about the prospect.“We saw the statements — Trump said he would resolve the conflict within 24 hours, then Vance said that China is a bigger problem for the United States than the Russia-Ukraine conflict,” she said, according toReuters.“It’s necessary to separate pre-election rhetoric from statements by government officials vested with the appropriate powers. If we talk about whether it’s possible to resolve the conflict, let’s be realistic,” she added. Zakharova pointed out that during the previous Trump administration, the president and some of his advisors made statements about bringing peace to the Middle East. “They prepared for the ‘deal of the century’ for quite a long time, but it did not end in anything, and under Biden, on the contrary, a colossal historical tragedy happened,” she said.Russian President Vladimir Putin has also noted Trump’s comments about ending the war in Ukraine and said he took them “seriously” but said he’s not familiar with any concrete proposals put forward by the former president.In an interview with The New York Times last month, Vance outlined some ideas for a potential peace plan. “What I would like to do … is you freeze the territorial lines somewhere close to where they are right now. That’s number one. Number two is you guarantee both Kyiv’s independence but also its neutrality. It’s the fundamental thing the Russians have asked from the beginning,” he said. “And then three, there’s going to have to be some American security assistance over the long term. I think those three things are certainly achievable, yes.”Vance wants the US to wind down its support for Ukraine so it could focus more on building up in the Asia Pacific and arming Taiwan. “The thing that we can control now is making it costly for [China] to invade Taiwan, and we’re not doing that because we’re sending all the damn weapons to Ukraine and not Taiwan,” he told the Times.

Joint Chiefs chair: ‘That’d be great’ if Trump ends Ukraine war quickly - Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. C.Q. Brown said on Friday that it would “be great” if former President Donald Trump fulfilled his campaign promise to end Russia’s war in Ukraine in 24 hours and also highlighted the risks if the U.S. and its allies cut off support for Kyiv.Speaking at the Aspen Security Forum, Brown, whom Trump appointed as Air Force chief of staff before President Joe Biden tapped him to serve as his top military adviser, was asked by Fox News reporter Jennifer Griffin to comment on the Republican nominee’s pledge to quickly broker a peace deal between Moscow and Kyiv.“If he can get it done in 24 hours, that’d be great,” Brown said. “It stops the conflict … and then we get back to more global security.”Brown’s comments come as worries grow on both sides of the Atlantic that Trump will walk back America’s commitments to transatlantic partnerships and reduce military support for Ukraine as it struggles to repel Russia’s two-year invasion. Trump’s allies have insisted that he will support Ukraine as president, provided that European allies meet their defense spending goals.Brown warned that if the U.S. and Europe were to suddenly stop support for Ukraine, in line with comments from Trump and running mate Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), “Putin would win.” That, he added, would also set a negative precedent on the international stage.“We have credibility that’s at stake … it’s not just the United States, but NATO, the West, if we just back away. And that opens the door for [Chinese leader] Xi Jinping and others that want to do unprovoked aggression,” he said.“It’s important that we continue to provide support to Ukraine so it doesn’t go into a broader conflict as well,” he continued. “Hard leadership matters.”

Netanyahu To Meet With Biden at the White House Before Addressing Congress - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet with President Biden at the White House on July 22, two days before Netanyahu delivers an address to a joint session of Congress, The Times of Israel reported Monday.The meeting will mark the first time Biden hosts Netanyahu in Washington since the Israeli leader took power in December 2022. They have two in-person meetings during that time, during the UN General Assembly in New York in September 2023, and when President Biden visited Israel in October 2023 following the Hamas attack on southern Israel.Biden and Netanyahu have also held frequent phone calls since October 7 to discuss Israel’s military operations in Gaza. Media reports have portrayed the relationship between the two leaders as uneasy, but Biden has provided strong military and political support for Netanyahu’s genocidal war.That support continues even as Netanyahu is clearly sabotaging the chances of a ceasefire deal with Hamas. Israeli officials have told the media that Netanyahu doesn’t want an agreement before his address to Congresssince he sees it as an opportunity to clinch more American support, which he hopes will increase his domestic support.Netanyahu has a history of controversial addresses to Congress, including in 2015, when he delivered a speech opposing the Iran nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). He also played a key role in pressuring the Trump administration to tear up the agreement, which kept Iran’s civilian nuclear program under stringent limits.In 2002, Netanyahu testified before Congress urging that the US invade Iraq, pushing the false narrative that Saddam Hussein had WMDs. “There is no question whatsoever that Saddam is seeking, is working, is advancing towards to the development of nuclear weapons,” Netanyahu said.

Joe Biden says he 'did more for the Palestinian community than anybody' -President Biden said he “did more for the Palestinian community” than anyone else when pressed about the United States’s support for Israel.Biden doubled down on both his support for Israel and the Palestinian community when asked by Complex’s Speedy Morman in an interview why the U.S.’s support for Israel is “so strong.” The interview was filmed Friday and released Monday on Complex’s “360 with Speedy.”“If there weren’t an Israel every Jew in the world would be at risk. Every Jew in the world would be at risk. And so there’s a need for it to be strong, and a need for Israel to be able to have after World War II … the ability for Jews to have a place that was their own,” Biden told Morman.“But you don’t have to be a Jew to be a Zionist, and a Zionist is about whether or not Israel is a safe haven for Jews because of their history of how they’ve been persecuted,” Biden continued before replying, “Yes,” to whether he considers himself a Zionist.Biden said people “don’t know what a Zionist is” before pointing to what he has done for Palestinians, like pushing for humanitarian aid to get into the Gaza Strip amid the months-long war.“By the way, I’m the guy that did more for the Palestinian community than anybody. I’m the guy that opened up all the assets. I’m the guy that made sure that I got the Egyptians to open the border to let goods through, medicine and food,” he said.“I’ve been very supportive of the Palestinians. But Hamas are a bunch of thugs,” he added later on.During last month’s debate, former President Trump targeted Biden over the handling of the Israel-Hamas war after the president argued the militant group is the one keeping a cease-fire deal from being reached.“Israel is the one. And you should let them go and let them go finish the job. He doesn’t want to do it,” Trump said.“He’s become like a Palestinian, but hey, don’t like him because he’s a very bad Palestinian. He’s a weak one,” Trump added.

Biden Claims He's Done More for the 'Palestinian Community' Than Anyone Else - President Biden claimed in an interview published on Monday that he has done more for the “Palestinian community” than anyone else, comments that come after over nine months of his administration supporting Israel’s genocidal campaign in Gaza.“I’m the guy that did more for the Palestinian community than anybody,”he said on the YouTube show 360 With Speedy.As an example of what he’s done for the “Palestinian community,” Biden said, ” I’m the guy that opened up all the assets, I’m the guy that made sure that I got the Egyptians to open the border to let goods and medicine and food through.”However, Biden also backed the Israeli operation to capture the Rafah border crossing on the Egypt-Gaza border, and it’s been closed ever since.Biden also appeared to suggest in the interview that he has only provided “defensive weapons” to Israel even though his administration has shipped tens of thousands of bombs and other types of munitions.“I sent defensive weapons,” Biden claimed. “I denied them offensive weapons that they were using 2,000lb bombs and the rest because I made it real clear they cannot use weapons that we provide them to, in fact, use in civilian areas.”The president appeared to be referring to his administration pausing a shipment of 500-pound and 2,000-pound bombs to Israel. However, the 500-pound bombs have been approved to be delivered despite Israel continuing to drop heavy munitions on civilians.While the administration did pause a single shipment of 2,000-pound bombs, it shipped 14,000 of them to Israel before that. Israel is still using heavy munitions on civilians, as Israeli officials told Axios that the military dropped five 2,000-pound bombs on the al-Mawasi camp over the weekend in a strike that killed at least 90 Palestinians, including many women and children. Israel said the strike targeted Mohammed Deif, Hamas’s senior military commander, but Hamas denied the claim, saying it was an excuse to massacre civilians.

With Media Enamored by US Presidential Race, Israeli Massacres in Gaza Get Even Deadlier - Israeli forces have massacred nearly 60 people in the Gaza Strip over just the past 24 hours, and the past week has been one of the deadliest since the war began more than nine months ago. But you'd hardly know it by looking at the front pages of major newspapers in the United States, despite U.S. President Joe Biden fueling Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's assault with diplomatic support and billions of dollars worth of weaponry.While outlets such as Al Jazeera and Reuters have kept Israel's onslaught at or near the top of their pages, coverage of the relentless war on the Palestinian enclave has largely been supplanted in the U.S. by presidential politics, particularly in the wake of the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump on Saturday—the same day Israeli forces killed around 100 people in an attack on a southern Gaza town that was previously designated a "safe zone," as Common Dreamsreported. Fresh Israeli airstrikes across Gaza on Tuesday killed dozens of people—including children—but the massacres didn't receive mention on the front pages of the web versions of The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, or USA Today, each of which heavily featured coverage of the high-stakes U.S. presidential contest between two candidates who have backed Israel's war on Gaza. As of Tuesday morning, Gaza was entirely absent from the website landing pages of the Journal and USA Today. The Post's home page buried a story about the potential for an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah, while the Times' home page contained a piece about surging settler violence in the West Bank amid Israel's ongoing atrocities in Gaza. In recent weeks, U.S. corporate media coverage of developments in Gaza has not reflected the extent to which Israel has intensified its aerial and ground attacks, even as recent cease-fire talks have sparked some hope of a pause. After a 20-year-old gunman attempted to assassinate Trump at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday, pictures of the former president's bloodied ear and raised fist were plastered across the front pages of major newspapers in the U.S. and around the world while the far more numerous images of child victims of Israeli bombs—many of them supplied by the United States—faded from view. Israel does not allow journalists with major U.S.-based media outlets to enter the Gaza Strip unless they are embedded with Israeli forces and agree to let the military vet their coverage. Al Jazeera, a Qatari-funded outlet that Israel's far-right government has repeatedly targeted, reported Monday that "Israeli forces have attacked five separate schools in Gaza in just eight days, killing dozens of people sheltering in them." One attack on Sunday, the outlet noted, "struck the United Nations-run Abu Oreiban school in the Nuseirat refugee camp, killing at least 17 people and injuring about 80. Most of the victims were women and children, said Palestinian Civil Defense." Reporting from the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital in Deir al-Balah, Al Jazeera's Hani Mahmoud said he witnessed children "crying out in pain and agony" at the facility, which—like all of Gaza's remaining hospitals—is under-resourced and only partially functioning."This is the result of incinerating bombs," Mahmoud added.The death toll from Israel's war on Gaza is nearing 40,000—likely a dramatic undercount, given how many bodies are missing under the rubble that now dominates the landscape of the enclave and could take 15 years to clear.Those who have survived Israel's onslaught are now living amid sewage, decomposing bodies, and the ruins of their homes, shops, schools, and hospitals, with nowhere safe to flee. Famine and disease are spreading rapidly across the territory as the Israeli government continues to restrict the flow of humanitarian aid.U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who has urged the Biden administration to cut off all offensive weapons assistance to Israel, said in a statementlate last week that "while much of the media is focused on the drama of the U.S. presidential election, we must not lose sight of what is happening in Gaza, where an unprecedented humanitarian crisis continues to get even worse.""We must end our support for Netanyahu's war," said Sanders. "Not another nickel to make this horrific situation even worse. I intend to do everything I can to block further arms transfers to Israel, including through joint resolutions of disapproval of any arms sales. The United States must not help a right-wing extremist and war criminal continue this atrocity."

UNRWA Headquarters in Israel 'Flattened' by Israeli Military - The head of the UN’s Palestinian relief agency, UNRWA, said Monday that the organization’s headquarters in Gaza City have been “flattened” as Israel has escalated attacks across the Gaza Strip.“Shocking,” UNRWA chief Philippe Lazzarini wrote on X. “UNRWA headquarters in Gaza, turned into a battlefield & now flattened. Another episode in the blatant disregard of international humanitarian law.”The Israeli military has waged war against UNRWA in Gaza, killing nearly 200 of the aid agency’s employees. Israel also accused 12 UNRWA employees of participating in the October 7 attacks on southern Israel but hasn’t produced evidence for the claim.The US and other Western countries immediately suspended funding for UNRWA based on Israel’s claims. In March, President Biden signed a bill into law prohibiting further US funding for the agency until at least 2025.In contrast, extensive evidence of Israeli war crimes has not led to any reductions in US funding for the Israeli military. Instead, the president signed legislation giving Israel another $17 billion in military aid on top of the $3.8 billion it receives each year.

We Volunteered at a Gaza Hospital. What We Saw Was Unspeakable. - — In the United States we would never dream of operating on anyone without consent, let alone a malnourished and barely conscious 9-year-old girl in septic shock. Nevertheless, when we saw Juri, that’s exactly what we did. We have no idea how Juri ended up in the Gaza European Hospital preoperative area. All we could see was that she had an external fixator — a scaffold of metal pins and rods — on her left leg and necrotic skin on her face and arms from the explosion that tore her little body to shreds. Just touching her blankets elicited shrieks of pain and terror. She was slowly dying, so we decided to take the risk of anesthetizing her without knowing exactly what we would find. In the operating room, we examined Juri from head to toe. This beautiful, meek little girl was missing two inches of her left femur along with most of the muscle and skin on the back of her thigh. Both of her buttocks were flayed open, cutting so deeply through flesh that the lowest bones in her pelvis were exposed. As we swept our hands through this topography of cruelty, maggots fell in clumps onto the operating room table. “Jesus Christ,” Feroze muttered as we washed the larvae into a bucket, “she’s just a fucking kid.” .. The two of us are humanitarian surgeons. Together, in our combined 57 years of volunteering, we’ve worked on more than 40 surgical missions in developing countries on four continents. We’re used to working in disaster and war zones, of being on intimate terms with death and carnage and despair. None of that prepared us for what we saw in Gaza this spring. While touring the hospital we walked through one of the ICUs and found multiple preteens admitted with gunshot wounds to the head. One might argue that a child could have been injured unintentionally in an explosion, or perhaps even forgotten when Israel invaded a children’s hospital and reportedly left infants to die in a pediatric intensive care unit. Gunshot wounds to the head are an entirely different matter. We started seeing a series of children, preteens mostly, who’d been shot in the head. They’d go on to slowly die, only to be replaced by new victims who’d also been shot in the head, and who would also go on to slowly die. Their families told us one of two stories: the children were playing inside when they were shot by Israeli forces, or they were playing in the street when they were shot by Israeli forces.Many of the staff were working at the Shifa and Indonesian Hospitals when they were destroyed. They were the lucky ones — they survived the attacks. Since October 7, at least 500 healthcare workers and 278 aid workers have been killed in Gaza. Among them was Dr. Hammam Alloh, a 36-year-old nephrologist at Shifa Hospital who refused to evacuate when Israel besieged the hospital in October.On October 31, in an interview with Amy Goodman for Democracy Now!, the doctor talked about why he chose to stay: “If I go, who treats my patients? We are not animals. We have the right to receive proper health care. So we can’t just leave.” Eleven days later, Dr. Alloh was killed by an Israeli air strike on his home, along with three of his family members. Among the medical staff who survived the assaults on the Shifa and Indonesian Hospitals, many were taken from those hospitals by the Israeli military. They all told us a slightly different version of the same horror story: In captivity, they were barely fed, continuously abused and ultimately dumped naked on the side of a road. Many said they were subjected to mock executions and other forms of mistreatment and torture. On April 2 we met Tamer. His Facebook posts show a proud young man and father who became a nurse to provide for his two small children — no small feat in a land with one of the highest unemployment rates in the world. When Israel raided Indonesian Hospital last November, he was assisting the orthopedics team in the operating room. He refused to leave his anesthetized patient. He said Israeli soldiers shot him in the leg, breaking his femur. His own orthopedic team cared for him, placing an external fixator to stabilize his shattered leg. Next, Tamer told us, the Israelis came to his hospital room and took him, where exactly he doesn’t know. He told us he was strapped to a table for 45 days, given a juice box every day — sometimes every other day — and denied medical care for his broken femur. During that time, he told us, he was beaten so badly that his right eye was destroyed. As malnutrition set in, he developed osteomyelitis — infection of the bone itself — in his broken femur. Later, he said, he was unceremoniously dumped naked on the side of a road. With metal sticking out of his infected and broken leg and his right eye hanging out of his skull he crawled for two miles until someone found him and brought him to European Hospital.

US Launches Heavy Strikes in Yemen - The US has launched several rounds of strikes on Yemen over the past few days as its war against the Houthis in the Red Sea continues.US Central Command reported fresh strikes on Houthi-controlled Yemen, which is where most of the country’s population lives, on July 11, July 12, and July 14. Yemeni media reported the attacks each day and described them as joint US-British strikes, although it’s unclear if the UK was involved.In the latest attack on Sunday, Yemen’s SABA news agency reported three strikes in the Red Sea province of Hodeidah. “A security source told SABAthat the US-British aggression aircraft targeted Hodeidah International Airport with two raids, and launched a raid on the Bheisi area of Alluheyah district,” the news agency said.There’s no indication if there were casualties in the three days of US strikes on Yemen. CENTCOM typically claims that its strikes destroy Houthi drones or some other type of military equipment that it deems a threat. According to the Yemen Data Project, joint US-British airstrikeskilled 16 Yemeni civilians on May 30.CENTCOM has also reported that US naval forces have been downing and intercepting Houthi missiles and drones. The US has already spent over $1 billion on munitions in its new war with the Houthis in what US commanders are calling the largest US naval battle since World War II.Since the US and the UK began bombing Yemen in January, the Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, have only escalated their attacks on Israel-linked and other commercial shipping in the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and beyond. There were more Houthi attacks on shipping in Junethan in any other month of this year.The Houthis have been clear the only way they’ll stop their attacks is if there’s a ceasefire in Gaza. Tim Lenderking, the US’s envoy to Yemen, has acknowledged the Houthis would likely be true to their word, but the US continues to support Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza instead of pushing for a unilateral ceasefire.The US backed a brutal Saudi/UAE war against the Houthis from 2015-2022 that involved heavy airstrikes and a blockade, and the Houthis only became a more capable fighting force during that time.The war killed at least 377,000 people, with more than half dying of starvation and disease caused by the siege. A ceasefire between the Houthis and Saudis has held relatively well since April 2022, but new US sanctions are now blocking the implementation of a lasting peace deal.

CENTCOM Says It Was Involved in 196 Operations Against ISIS in Iraq and Syria in First Half of 2024 - According to US Central Command, the US and its partner forces were involved in 196 missions against ISIS in Iraq and Syria that killed 44 ISIS operatives during the first half of 2024.In Iraq, CENTCOM said it was involved in 137 operations with government forces that killed 30 ISIS fighters, and 74 more were detained.Earlier this year, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani was calling for the US to withdraw and said Iraqi forces could handle ISIS remnants on their own. But the US insisted on staying, and at this point, there’s no sign a withdrawal is being considered.In Syria, CENTCOM said it participated in 59 operations with the Kurdish-led SDF that killed 14, and another 92 were detained. This year, Amnesty International said in a report that the SDF was responsible for torture and “mass death” due to the conditions of the prisons it has set up for ISIS, which hold many children.The Syrian government is opposed to the US occupation of eastern Syria, where there are about 900 US troops stationed. By backing the SDF, the US is able to control about one-third of Syria’s territory. The US also maintains crippling sanctions on Syria that are designed to prevent the country from rebuilding.The US uses ISIS as its justification for remaining in Iraq and Syria even though the terror group doesn’t control any significant territory. Syria and its allies are all sworn enemies of ISIS and would continue to fight ISIS remnants if the US withdrew. But the real purpose for the US keeping troops in Iraq and Syria is to counter Iran and its allies in the region.

CNN Report Claims Secret Service Ramped Up Security Based on Intel of Iran Plot Against Trump - CNN claimed on Tuesday that the US Secret Service ramped up security around Donald Trump in recent weeks based on intelligence from a single “human source” that Iran was plotting to assassinate the former president, accusations Tehran rejected as “unsubstantiated and malicious.”The report offered no evidence for the claim and only cited unnamed people “briefed on the matter.” They said there was no indication that Thomas Matthew Crooks, the 20-year-old who tried to assassinate Trump over the weekend, had any connection to the alleged plot.The idea that the Secret Service increased security around Trump has been contested since Crooks was able to get off multiple shots from a nearby rooftop that wasn’t secured.The report connected the alleged Iranian plot to Trump ordering the assassination of Gen. Qasem Soleimani, who headed Iran’s Quds Force, a branch of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).In response to the report, Iran’s mission to the UN said, “These accusations are unsubstantiated and malicious. From the perspective of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Trump is a criminal who must be prosecuted and punished in a court of law for ordering the assassination of General Soleimani. Iran has chosen the legal path to bring him to justice.”IRGC officials occasionally vow they will seek revenge for Soleimani, who was killed on January 3, 2020, by a US drone strike in Baghdad. But amid soaring tensions in the Middle East, Iran has been clearly trying to avoid war with the US, and killing a former president would be a quick way to provoke direct military confrontation with the US.This year, Iran engaged in indirect talks with the US in Oman to avoid escalation and also pressured its Shia allies in Iraq to stop attacking US bases after three US troops were killed at Tower 22 in Jordan. When Iran launched a reprisal attack on Israel in response to the bombing of the Iranian consulate in Syria, Iranian officials said they warned the US 72 hours in advance. The US denied the claim, but Turkey and Jordan confirmed they were given notice, which would have gotten back to the US.Iranians recently elected a reformist candidate as president, Masoud Pezeshkian, who wants to engage directly with the US even in the context of the likelihood of another Trump presidency, which marks a significant shift in Tehran’s policy. Pezeshkian is set to be inaugurated in August.

New GOP Platform Vows Support for Israel, Deportation of Pro-Palestinian Protesters - The Republican Party posted its new platform last week that’s expected to be ratified at the Republican National Convention, which will start on Monday as scheduled despite the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump. Israel is the only foreign country mentioned by name as one that the GOP vows to support. “We will stand with Israel, and seek peace in the Middle East,” the platform says. Referring to NATO allies, the platform reads, “Republicans will strengthen Alliances by ensuring that our Allies must meet their obligations to invest in our Common Defense and by restoring Peace to Europe.”A report from Israel Hayom notes that the same standard of allies investing more money in defense is not applied to Israel. Israel receives $3.8 billion in military aid from the US each year and will get another $17 billion, which was included in the foreign aid bill President Biden signed into law earlier this year.Republicans have made an effort to make themselves the more pro-Israel party ahead of the November elections and have strongly criticized President Biden despite his full-throated support for the genocidal war in Gaza. Trump has accused Biden of abandoning Israel and has signaled that he will provide strong support for the campaign in Gaza.The GOP platform also targets pro-Palestinian protesters at college campuses, listing as one of its promises in all caps: “DEPORT PRO-HAMAS RADICALS AND MAKE OUR COLLEGE CAMPUSES SAFE AND PATRIOTIC AGAIN.” In May, Rep. Andy Ogles (R-TN) introduced a bill to deport college protesters to Gaza. “I am going to bet that these pro-Hamas supporters wouldn’t last a day, but let’s give them the opportunity,” he said when he put forward the legislation. The platform also commits to taking a hard line on China: “Republicans will revoke China’s Most Favored Nation status, phase out imports of essential goods, and stop China from buying American Real Estate and Industries.”

Pentagon Releases National Defense Strategy That Names China as Top Threat - -The Pentagon on Thursday released its 2022 National Defense Strategy(NDS), which names China as the “most comprehensive and serious challenge to US national security strategy” even as the US is spending tens of billions on a proxy war with Russia.The NDS was first briefed to Congress back in March, and a short summary was released that said China was the top “threat” facing the US. The strategy names Russia as an “acute threat” but not as serious in the long term as China.“Unlike China, Russia can’t systemically challenge the United States over the long term. But Russian aggression does pose an immediate and sharp threat to our interests and values,” Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin told reporters.The strategy said China and Russia pose a greater threat to the US homeland than any terrorist groups. “The scope and scale of threats to the homeland have fundamentally changed. The PRC [People’s Republic of China] and Russia now pose more dangerous challenges to safety and security at home, even as terrorist threats persist,” the strategy read.The strategy names other “persistent threats,” including North Korea and Iran, with “violent extremist organizations,” such as ISIS and al-Qaeda, at the bottom of the list. The strategy said that these groups have had their “capabilities degraded” but may be able to “reconstitute them in short order.”The strategy focuses on the need for deterrence to prevent a conflict with two nuclear-armed powers at the same time and focuses on the idea of a nuclear deterrent. “In a potential conflict with a competitor, the United States would need to be able to deter opportunistic aggression by another competitor,” the strategy reads. “We will rely in part on nuclear weapons to help mitigate this risk, recognizing that a near-simultaneous conflict with two nuclear-armed states would constitute an extreme circumstance.”The NDS was released simultaneously with the Nuclear Posture Review and Missile Defense Review on Thursday. Officials told Stars and Stripes that the documents were integrated together for the first time. The Nuclear Posture Review calls for the modernization of the US nuclear triad, a plan that could cost up to $1.5 trillion.

US Announces $345 Million in Unprecedented Military Aid for Taiwan - The White House on Friday announced a $345 million military aid package for Taiwan, marking a significant escalation in US support for the island. The US has sold weapons to Taiwan since Washington severed diplomatic relations with Taipei in 1979 but has never financed the purchases or provided arms free of charge. The $345 million weapons package is being provided through the presidential drawdown authority, the primary way the US has been arming Ukraine. The authority allows President Biden to send weapons directly from US military stockpiles. The White House said the $345 million includes “defense articles and services of the Department of Defense, and military education and training, to provide assistance to Taiwan.” The Biden administration did not announce publicly what weapons it was sending to Taiwan, but unnamed US officials speaking to AP said it would include man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS), firearms, missiles, and intelligence and surveillance capabilities. US officials previously told Reuters that the package was expected to include MQ-9 Reaper drones, but it’s not clear if they are being provided. Taiwan’s Defense Ministry thanked the US for the weapons but also did not detail the contents of the arms package.The 2023 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) authorized $1 billion in PDA for Taiwan, and this marks the first time the administration has drawn from those funds. The move drew a rebuke from Beijing, which is opposed to all US military support for Taiwan.A spokesman for China’s embassy in Washington said Beijing was “firmly opposed” to military ties between the US and Taiwan. He called on the US to “stop creating new factors that could stoke tensions in the Taiwan Strait.”China hawks in Congress argue that the US needs to arm Taiwan “to the teeth” to deter Beijing from attacking the island. But China’s actions make clear that the more the US increases support for Taiwan, the more military pressure the island will face. When President Biden signed the 2023 NDAA into law, which included the PDA and other aid for Taiwan, China launched major military drills around Taiwan directly in response. China’s Taiwan Affairs Office issued a statement Saturday that said the new US military aid for Taiwan was turning the island into a “powder keg” and said it wouldn’t stop Beijing’s goal of “reunification.” China’s policy is that it seeks peaceful reunification but won’t rule out the use of force. “No matter how much of the ordinary people’s taxpayer money the … Taiwanese separatist forces spend, no matter how many US weapons, it will not shake our resolve to solve the Taiwan problem. Or shake our firm will to realize the reunification of our motherland,” said Chen Binhua, the office’s spokesman.“Their actions are turning Taiwan into a powder keg and ammunition depot, aggravating the threat of war in the Taiwan Strait,” Chen added

China Stops Arms Control Talks With the US Over Arms Sales To Taiwan - The Chinese Foreign Ministry said Wednesday that Beijing had stopped arms control talks with the US over continued US arms sales to Taiwan and other steps that go against China’s “core interests.”The US and China held consultations on arms control back in November 2023. A reporter asked Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian about comments from US officials suggesting China declined to hold another round.“Over the past weeks and months, despite China’s firm opposition and repeated protest, the US has continued to sell arms to Taiwan and done things that severely undermine China’s core interests and the mutual trust between China and the US. This has seriously compromised the political atmosphere for continuing the arms control consultations,” Lin said. “Consequently, the Chinese side has decided to hold off discussion with the US on a new round of consultations on arms control and non-proliferation. The responsibility fully lies with the US,” the spokesman added.Lin said China stands ready for arms control talks “in line with the principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation, but the US must respect China’s core interests and create necessary conditions for dialogue and exchange.”The US has stepped up military and diplomatic support for Taiwan in recent years, ignoring frequent warnings from Chinese officials, including President Xi Jinping, that the issue is the “first red line” in US-China relations that must not be crossed. Since the November 2023 arms control talks, the US has approved several new arms sales for Taiwan, including one last month worth $360 million for hundreds of armed drones and related missile equipment. President Biden also signed a $95 billion foreign military aid bill that included $8 billion for military aid for Taiwan and other spending in the Indo-Pacific region to prepare for war with China. The US has always sold weapons to Taiwan since severing diplomatic relations in 1979. but just began providing weapons using US-taxpayer-funded military aid last year, a step the Chinese military warned would be “absolutely intolerable.”

Trump Says Taiwan Should Pay the US for Its Defense - Former President Trump, the Republican Party’s presidential nominee,told Bloomberg in an interview published on Tuesday that Taiwan should pay the US to defend the island and compared the idea to an insurance policy.President Biden has vowed several times that he would intervene to defend Taiwan in the event of an attack, breaking from the decades-long US policy of strategic ambiguity on the issue.Trump was asked if he would defend Taiwan and said, “Look, a couple of things. Number one, Taiwan. I know the people very well, respect them greatly. They did take about 100% of our chip business. I think, Taiwan should pay us for defense. You know, we’re no different than an insurance company. Taiwan doesn’t give us anything.”He continued, “Taiwan is 9,500 miles away. It’s 68 miles away from China. A slight advantage, and China’s a massive piece of land, they could just bombard it. They don’t even need to—I mean, they can literally just send shells. Now they don’t want to do that because they don’t want to lose all those chip plants.”During his time in office, President Trump oversaw an increase in US support for Taiwan that ramped up tensions between the US and China. President Biden continued boosting ties with Taiwan and Trump’s overall tough-on-China policy, including the trade war and tariffs.Trump suggested to Bloomberg that tensions wouldn’t be so high if he remained in office, saying, “The day I left they sent 28 bombers right over the top and they’ve been very aggressive ever since, they got ships all over the place.”Trump appeared to be referencing Chinese military flights in Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone, which is different from the island’s airspace. China first increased its flights in Taiwan’s ADIZ when Trump was in office in 2020, in response to the US sending high-level officials to the island. But Chinese flights in the ADIZ and across the Median Line, an unofficial barrier that separates the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, have dramatically increased under Biden, especially since then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August 2022.Trump reiterated in the interview that defending Taiwan would be very hard for the US but didn’t rule it out. “I just think we have to be smart, but remember 9,500 miles away,” he said.

Navy exonerates Black sailors punished in 1944 explosion -The Navy on Wednesday exonerated 256 Black sailors found to be unjustly punished in 1944, after a deadly California port explosion revealed racial disparities in the military, Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro announced. The explosion, which took place exactly 80 years ago on July 17, 1944, at Port Chicago Naval Magazine outside San Francisco, killed 320 people and injured 400 others when munitions being loaded onto a cargo ship detonated. After the blasts, white supervising officers at Port Chicago were given hardship leave while the surviving Black sailors — at the time, barred from nearly all seagoing jobs in a segregated force — were ordered back to work clearing debris and removing human remains from the critical World War II ammunition supply site. As it was yet unknown what had caused the explosion and no changes had been made to improve safety, 258 Black sailors refused to resume ammunition handling. The Navy threatened disciplinary action, after which 208 of the men returned to work, but the service still subsequently convicted all 208 at a summary court-martial for disobeying orders. The other 50 sailors, who came to be known as the “Port Chicago 50,” were charged with and convicted of mutiny at a mass general court-martial. Each one received a dishonorable discharge, were forced to give up their pay and sent to prison. Thurgood Marshall, the first Black justice on the Supreme Court, at the time defended the 50 sailors as a defense attorney for the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People. “The Port Chicago 50, and the hundreds who stood with them, may not be with us today, but their story lives on, a testament to the enduring power of courage and the unwavering pursuit of justice,” Del Toro said in a statement. “They stand as a beacon of hope, forever reminding us that even in the face of overwhelming odds, the fight for what’s right can and will prevail.” After the Navy’s office of general counsel reviewed the case, it found that there were “significant legal errors during the courts-martial,” and the defendants were “improperly tried together despite conflicting interests and denied a meaningful right to counsel.” Further, the courts-martial took place before a Navy report on the explosion was finalized, which “would have informed their defense and contained nineteen substantive recommendations to improve ammunition loading practices.” All Black sailors involved are now deceased, but Del Toro’s move will change their discharges to honorable. After the records are altered, surviving family members can work with the Department of Veterans Affairs to see if past benefits are owed, according to the Navy.

CBP: Southern Border Arrests In June Reach Lowest Number Since January 2021 - The number of illegal immigrants arrested at the U.S. southern border fell by nearly 30 percent in June, reaching the lowest monthly total since January 2021, according to figures released this week. Arrests totaled 83,536 illegal immigrants in June, down from 117,901 in May, Customs and Border Protection (CBP) announced in a June 15 statement. The agency attributed the decline to President Joe Biden’s order announced on June 4 that halts asylum requests at the southern border once the average daily number of illegal immigrant arrests exceeds 2,500 for seven days. “Recent border security measures have made a meaningful impact on our ability to impose consequences for those crossing unlawfully, leading to a decline of 29 percent in U.S. Border Patrol apprehensions from May to June,” Troy Miller, acting CBP commissioner, said in astatement. President Biden issued the proclamation as his administration had been dealing with historic levels of illegal immigrant encounters at the U.S.–Mexico border, while Americans rank border security as one of the country’s top concerns.The order is a proclamation under Immigration and Nationality Act sections 212(f) and 215(a) and prohibits immigrants who cross the southern border unlawfully from receiving asylum when, as Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said in a June statement, “high levels of encounters at the southern border exceed our ability to deliver timely consequences.” Meanwhile, Mr. Miller also said the seven-day average of border-crossing encounters has decreased by more than 50 percent in the past six weeks to below 1,900 per day. “We are continuing to work with international partners to go after transnational criminal organizations that traffic in chaos and prioritize profit over human lives,” he said. Since the executive action went into effect on June 5, the Department of Homeland Security has “removed or returned more than 70,000 individuals to more than 170 countries, including by operating more than 150 international repatriation flights,” according to the CBP. The border agency noted that the total number of removals and returns over the past year is the highest of any year since 2010.

Biden administration to invest $5B for major bridge repairs - The Biden administration announced Wednesday that it will invest more than $5 billion for grants to repair and reconstruct 13 major bridges across 16 states. The 13 bridges, which the administration said are “nationally significant,” will receive grants from the Large Bridge Project, as part of the Federal Highway Administration’s Bridge Investment Program funded by President Biden’s infrastructure law. “For too long America let bridges fall into disrepair, which left people less safe, disrupted our supply chains, and cost people time and money — but now the Biden-Harris Administration is changing that with the biggest investment in our bridges since the Eisenhower era,” Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said in a statement. State transportation departments will receive the funding to fix the 13 bridges, including Oregon’s for a project to fix bridges that connect Portland to Vancouver, Wash., Massachusetts for Sagamore Bridge replacement in Cape Cod, and Alabama for the I-10 Mobile River Bridge replacement. The tranche does not include funds for the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, which partially collapsed in March, because funding for that project comes through emergency relief, officials said. Meanwhile, Pennsylvania will receive a grant for I-83 bridge replacement in Harrisburg, Pa.; Tennessee will receive a grant to replace the I-55 bridge over the Mississippi River; and Rhode Island will receive grants for 15 bridges along I-95. The president’s infrastructure law created the Bridge Investment Program, which invests $40 billion over five years to ensure bridges are safe and operational and meet current and future needs. More than 10,200 bridges are being rebuilt, repaired, or modernized since the infrastructure law was signed in November 2021, according to the administration. The other grants announced Wednesday will be sent to North Carolina to replace the Cape Fear Memorial Bridge in Wilmington; to South Carolina to replace the Lake Marion Bridge on I-95 in Santee; and to Oklahoma to replace the Roosevelt Memorial Bridge Replacement Project on US-70. Also, funds are going to Florida to replace Miami’s Venetian Causeway Bridge, West Virginia to replace the historic Market Street Bridge in West Virginia and Ohio, New Mexico to replace two bridges on I-25, and Kansas to replace the 18th Street Bridge in Kansas City.

Republican tax team hosts energy roundtable in Virginia - -- U.S. Reps. Carol Miller (R-WV), Mike Kelly (R-PA), and Randy Feenstra (R-IA), who serve on the U.S. House Ways and Means Committee’s Supply Chains Tax Team, on July 11 hosted a roundtable in Tazewell County, Va., with energy industry stakeholders to discuss the capture and use of coalfield methane as a viable fuel. The Supply Chain Tax Team is one of 10 new Committee Tax Teams launched in April by the House Ways and Means Committee. Composed of Ways and Means Republicans, the committees will address tax provisions from the 2017 tax cuts that are set to expire in 2025 and identify legislative solutions to continue helping Americans and small businesses. “Our Supply Chains Tax Team is focused on ensuring energy tax credits are being utilized in the United States,” said Rep. Miller, chairwoman of the Supply Chains Tax Team. “Energy production has been the bedrock of Appalachia for generations, and I’m making sure it stays that way.” The roundtable included representatives from CNX Resources Corp., a Pittsburgh-based natural gas company with operations in the Appalachian Basin, primarily in the Marcellus Shale and Utica Shale in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia. The company also develops coal-bed methane properties in Virginia along with a methane capture and abatement program. The lawmakers also toured a mine methane capture facility operated by CNX Resources in southwest Virginia. “Expanding the Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage tax credit is an important first step to secure our economic and energy success,” Rep. Miller said. “If we can take mine methane emissions and turn them into an energy source, the United States will remain dominant on the global stage.”

Biden: Eliminate tax breaks for landlords raising rent more than 5 percent - President Biden on Tuesday proposed eliminating tax breaks for landlords who raise their tenants’ rent more than 5 percent each year, as part of a larger effort by the administration to lower housing costs. The president called on Congress to pass legislation that would bar corporate landlords who raise rent more than 5 percent a year from taking advantage of accelerated depreciation write-offs. The proposed rule would apply to landlords with over 50 units, which would cover more than 20 million units or about half the rental market in the country, according to a fact sheet from the administration. “Families deserve housing that’s affordable—it’s part of the American Dream,” Biden said in a statement. “Rent is too high and buying a home is out of reach for too many working families and young Americans, after decades of failure to build enough homes. I’m determined to turn that around.” “Today, I’m sending a clear message to corporate landlords: If you raise rents more than 5%, you should lose valuable tax breaks,” he continued. “While the prior administration gave special tax breaks to corporate landlords, I’m working to lower housing costs for families,” Biden added. “Republicans in Congress should join Democrats to pass my plan to lower housing costs for Americans who need relief now.” The rent cap, which would be in place for two years under Biden’s proposal, is meant to “serve as a bridge until more housing units are built,” National Economic Advisor Lael Brainard told reporters on a call Monday. In order to avoid discouraging new housing supply, it would not impact new construction or units that have undergone substantial rehabilitation, Brainard added. The Biden administration is also leaning on agencies to repurpose federal land to build more affordable housing. The Bureau of Land Management (BLM), United States Forest Service (USFS) and United States Postal Service (USPS) have all announced plans to repurpose extra land or properties for housing.

Biden Seeks Supreme Court Term Limits, Medical Debt Cancellation, Rent Controls - Mish - Whoever is behind Biden’s campaign has gone completely mad. Is the goal to make Vance and Trump look like centrists? The Wall Street Journal reports Biden Planning to Back Major Changes to the Supreme Court As Republicans gather in Milwaukee, President Biden is making his own news: He is planning to throw his support behind sweeping changes to the Supreme Court, part of an effort to appeal to progressives less than four months before Election Day.The president is expected to soon call for legislation that would set term limits and impose enforceable ethics rules on Supreme Court justices, according to people who have been briefed on the discussions. He is also considering backing a constitutional amendment that would limit or overturn the sweeping immunity granted to presidents, the people said.Biden and his advisers have been working behind the scenes to lock down the support of progressive lawmakers, who have largely continued to back the president even as other Democrats have called on him to abandon his re-election campaign. The president, in a recent speech, called for eliminating medical debt, another issue championed by progressive lawmakers.Like all Federal judges, Supreme Court Justices serve lifetime appointments on the Court, in accordance with Article III of the United States Constitution. The actual wording is “The Judges, both of the supreme and inferior Courts, shall hold their Offices during good Behaviour, and shall, at stated Times, receive for their Services, a Compensation, which shall not be diminished during their Continuance in Office.” Justices can be impeached. He's obviously struggling with the teleprompter. Too bad he doesn't know his own recently announced policy he hopes to push through Congress that would limit rent raises to 5%. I played that several times and this is what I come up with “I am about to announce you can’t raise it more than 55 dollars.” Massive applause. Dear Biden speech writers, you are advised to not use the % sign in teleprompts because Biden might confuse % with a 5. Also, I suggest a much larger font. Otherwise “rent more than 55%” might come out like “board man 55 dollars” which is what Biden actually sounded like as he struggled with the teleprompter.Will rent control, medical debt cancellation, and unconstitutional Supreme Court silliness (or proposed amendments), appeal to independents on average? Step-by-step, Biden gets more and more radical. But the Progressive wing is already 100% behind Biden. This cannot possibly gain the Democrats any votes. I thought the same about Trump’s pick of J.D. Vance for Vice President. But Biden’s proposal is worse.

Biden regulators set to look into unequal online pricing scheme - A great deal of the Biden administration’s economic agenda has focused on protecting people from getting ripped off: The ever-shrinking Snickers bar, fighting overdraft fees and pushing airlines to make travelers whole when things go awry.Now his corporate-misconduct cops are looking to the next possible stage in profiteering: personalized pricing, in which online firms offer different prices to individuals depending on what the companies know about them. The controversial, burgeoning practice is sometimes called “surveillance pricing” by advocates, since it depends on closely tracking individuals’ data. The Federal Trade Commission, led by Chair Lina Khan, is preparing to launch a broad study on the practice, according to three people with knowledge of the plan. As soon as August, the agency could demand information from companies involved in facilitating personalized pricing, the people said. The plans for the study are not yet final, and it isn’t yet clear what companies the agency would be targeting. An FTC spokesperson declined to comment. The practice that worries the FTC is a new variant of so-called dynamic pricing, an approach that has been commonplace for years in some of the most widely used apps and websites. Ride-hailing apps, airline tickets and online shopping sites all constantly adjust prices based on demand. The study is intended to shed light on a still-nascent practice with more potential for unfairness: charging two different people different prices for the same toothbrush at the same time. Critics are concerned that differential pricing is unfair — and also that it creates an appetite for more consumer data, which compounds concerns around people’s privacy. “The technology and infrastructure for personalized pricing has been in place for more than a decade, but it’s exploded in the last few years because retailers have transformed themselves into mini Googles and Metas,” said Jeff Chester, a longtime privacy advocate who heads the Center for Digital Democracy. “This leads to harvesting the massive data they have on their consumers to enable more targeted advertising and pricing” in conjunction with large consumer brands, Chester said.

Federal court halts reimposed 'net neutrality' rules -- The return of Obama-era net neutrality rules is temporarily halted through the beginning of next month, according to a court of appeals order released Friday. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit put a temporary stay until Aug. 5 on the rules the Biden administration’s Federal Communications Commission (FCC) voted to restore in April. The temporary halt put in place comes after multiple broadband providers filed a motion in favor of a stay on the FCC’s restored rules. Net neutrality rules aim to bar broadband providers from blocking or throttling internet traffic to some websites and speed up access to others that pay extra fees. It was a big push for the Democrats on the committee, but the agenda was pushed back as Congress stalled to confirm a full board and give Democrats a majority on the committee. The agency voted 3-2 along partisan lines to revive the rules in April. The rules were put in place under former President Obama in 2015, but the Trump administration repealed them in 2017. Supporters of net neutrality, like Democratic FCC Chairwoman Jessica Rosenworcel, say the rules help to ensure a fair and open internet. But critics such as Republican Commissioner Brendan Carr argue the rules expand government control over the internet to solve a problem that has not been as pervasive as supporters of the rules warned.

Education Department freezes student loan payments for 8M borrowers - The Education Department will suspend student loan payments and interest for around 8 million borrowers after a Thursday court order blocked the Biden administration’s latest repayment program. Agency officials said they would freeze the loans of borrowers enrolled in the program, known as SAVE, until appeals finish winding through the courts. The plan lowers monthly payments for almost all enrolled and offers loan forgiveness for certain long-time borrowers. The order further upends President Joe Biden’s promise to tackle high loan payments for students weighed down by debt.“It’s shameful that politically motivated lawsuits waged by Republican elected officials are once again standing in the way of lower payments for millions of borrowers,” U.S. Secretary of Education Miguel Cardona said in a statement. He warned the order would have “devastating consequences for millions of student loan borrowers crushed by unaffordable monthly payments if it remains in effect.”Federal district judges in Kansas and Missouri blocked key provisions of the plan in June. But a federal appeals court put that decision on hold in July and allowed the Biden administration to move ahead with its lower monthly payments. Thursday’s unsigned order, from the 8th Circuit Court of Appeals, completely blocks the program for an unclear length of time. Critics argue the plan amounts to government overreach and unfairly burdens taxpayers.“The chaos and destruction this administration is inflicting on the nation’s student loan system is unprecedented,” House Education and Workforce Committee Chair Virginia Foxx (R-N.C.) said. “Is it hubris, ignorance, or indifference that encourages the Biden administration to move forward with an illegal agenda that has dangerous repercussions?”This isn’t the first time the Education Department froze payments because of lawsuits. Officials paused about 3 million borrower payments in June after a federal judge in Kansas blocked the administration from reducing them, a part of the plan set to take effect in July. An appeals court later reversed the decision. But the department has paused those borrowers’ payments again, along with others in the program. Officials have not yet said when the freeze will take effect.Mike Pierce, the executive director and co-founder of the Student Borrower Protection Center said the department had few other options. “It’s the only way you can be sure you’re not violating this court order,” he said.

Medicare's Real Contribution: Hollowing Out Healthcare As high inflation enters its third year and disinflation slowed, the impact of broad price increases are seeping into increasingly far flung areas. They are seen and felt not only in the prices of capital, producer, and consumer goods, and in the prices of securities and commodities, but also in goods and services procured through the government. In some, adjustments have been made. The most recent Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) for Social Security benefits was a 3.2-percent increase. That adjustment affects more than 66 million Social Security beneficiaries and around 7.5 million recipients of Supplemental Security Income (SSI), whose increased payments began on December 29, 2023​. Medicare Part D, and particularly thecatastrophic coverage phase, also saw a modification through 2022’s so-called Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Those changes eliminate the 5 percent coinsurance requirement for enrollees in the catastrophic phase starting in 2024, effectively capping out-of-pocket expenses. In 2025 additional changes will kick in, including a $2,000 annual cap on out-of-pocket drug spending and the elimination of the coverage gap phase. The changes are intended to provide more consistent cost-sharing throughout the year, reducing the financial strain on beneficiaries and in particular those with significant prescription drug needs. On the other hand, Medicare payments to physicians do not, and have not, been adjusted for inflation. Over the last decade, in fact, the American Medical Association estimates that rates have been cut by ten percent. The reimbursement rates for Medicare are set by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) and are updated annually through various fee schedules, primarily the Medicare Physician Fee Schedule (MPFS). In recent years, updates have been minimal and have not kept pace with the rising costs of providing medical care, which has in turn led to financial pressure on healthcare providers. While Medicare Part D changes reduce out-of-pocket drug costs for patients, they do not affect the reimbursement rates doctors receive for their services. Since 2001, physician payments have fallen 30 percent behind the rate of inflation. The difference highlights a broader issue in healthcare policy, where measures to ease financial burdens on patients are not always extended to healthcare providers. There are several reasons why Medicare payments to physicians are not automatically adjusted for inflation. Budget constraints play a significant role; Medicare costs comprise a substantial portion of the federal budget, and automatic inflation adjustments could significantly increase their budgets. Congress and policymakers often prioritize controlling healthcare spending to manage the overall federal budget and reduce deficits. That physicians represent a far smaller voting bloc than the 19.4 percent (65.7 million) of Americans who are Medicare recipients is undoubtedly a major contributing factor. The Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act (OBRA) of 1989 required that Medicare spending not increase overall fiscal spending. That is to say, adjustments to payments, methods, or policy changes are required to be accompanied by finding savings or outright reductions within the program, ensuring its neutrality. For this reason, nominal reimbursement rates have fallen virtually every year. A history of attempts to wrangle government expenditures while contending with rapidly changing technology, demographic shifts, and in the case of healthcare rising longevity is beyond the scope of this article, but offered here. It brings to mind Ludwig von Mises’ many critiques of interventionism, but particularly those which arise of its cumulative effects: each tinkering and tweak leads to unintended consequences, which over time leads to new unintended consequences, further interventions, and on it goes.In 2023, the CMS approved a 3.37 percent reduction in Medicare physician payments for 2024, which took effect on January 1. This was later reversed in part, as described in this blog post from March 7, 2024.Last Sunday, Congress released the text of a minibus package, which will likely be signed into law by tomorrow. While the bill’s primary purpose is to keep the government open, it also includes healthcare extenders through the end of the calendar year, as well as several notable healthcare policies … The minibus includes a 1.68 percent reduction to the 3.37 percent cut to the Medicare Physician Fee Schedule (MPFS) conversion factor (CF) that physicians and other clinicians are currently facing. The 3.37 percent CF cut went into effect on January 1, 2024, and this provision would effectively reduce that cut to 1.69 percent for the rest of the calendar year (3.37 percent – 1.68 percent). It will be in effect as of March 9, 2024, and will not impact payments for services delivered between January 1 and March 8, 2024. In other words, the fix is NOT retroactive, but will apply prospectively.Changes to Medicare reimbursement rates are determined through legislative processes. The reimbursement rates are influenced by various political and economic factors, and automatic adjustments for inflation have not been a priority. Historically, the Sustainable Growth Rate (SGR) formula was used to control spending by tying updates to physicians’ fees to the rate of US economic growth. This, however, has at times led to scheduled cuts in physician payments, which Congress has almost as frequently postponed through temporary “doc fix” measures. The SGR was replaced by the Medicare Access and CHIP Reauthorization Act (MACRA) in 2015, but automatic inflation adjustments were not included in the new system.

Biden Went On Unhinged Rant During Call To Discuss His Viability: Report - Hours before Donald Trump was shot by a would-be assassin on Saturday, President Joe Biden became absolutely unhinged during a Zoom call with Democrats to discuss whether he should abandon his bid for reelection.According to Puck News,Right before the Trump rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, a group of moderate Hill Democrats held a “tense” Zoom call with the White House to express their concern about Biden’s ability to win—and their ability to win, should he tank and take them down with him. “The call was even worse than the debate,” one of the participants told me. “He was rambling; he’d start an answer then lose his train of thought, then would just say ‘whatever.’ He really couldn’t complete an answer. I lost a ton of respect for him.”What's more, Biden had a 'particularly troubling exchange' with Rep. Jason Crow (D-CO) - a former Army Ranger who served three tours of duty in Iraq and Afghanistan - in which Biden said "Tell me something you’ve never done with your Bronze Star like my son," referring to Beau Biden - an Army lawyer who served in the National Guard and was deployed to Iraq, who as the Attorney General of Delaware gave a DuPont heir a plea bargain that spared him prison time for raping his young daughter. Well, Crow didn't die doing one of those tours like Beau did. Even CNN is reporting it... CNN; Biden gets nasty w/ Bronze Star Democrat @JasonCrowCO on “absolute disaster” Zoom Call, tells him to “cut that crap out” after Crow voiced concern about Biden’s diminished abilities. pic.twitter.com/1X0w1MUYYH As Puck's Julia Ioffe writes of a portion of the Zoom call she was able to view, Biden starts shouting at Crow, saying "First of all, I think you’re dead wrong on national security," at times garbling his words as he became emotional. "You saw what happened recently in terms of the meeting we had with NATO. I put NATO together. Name me a foreign leader who thinks I’m not the most effective leader in the world on foreign policy. Tell me! Tell me who the hell that is! Tell me who put NATO back together! Tell me who enlarged NATO, tell me who did the Pacific basin! Tell me who did something that you’ve never done with your Bronze Star like my son—and I’m proud of your leadership, but guess what, what’s happening, we’ve got Korea and Japan working together, I put Aukus together, anyway! … Things are in chaos, and I’m bringing some order to it. And again, find me a world leader who’s an ally of ours who doesn’t think I’m the most respected person they’ve ever—" "It;'s not breaking through, Mr. President," Crow replied, "to our voters." "You oughta talk about it!" Biden fired back - rattling off several accomplishments. "On national security, nobody has been a better president than I’ve been. Name me one. Name me one! So I don’t want to hear that crap!" "How is this tenable?" One campaign source told Ioffe, adding "We’re in a perfect shitstorm until he steps down or everyone gets back on board." Of note, nearly 2/3 of Democrats want Biden to step down, according to an AP-Norc poll released on Wednesday.

Biden's frustration and defiance as 2024 race intensifies --When President Biden took part in a Zoom call with lawmakers from the Congressional Progressive Caucus last weekend, an aide passed him a note that read, “Stay positive. You are sounding defensive.”Sources familiar with the call said Biden “intentionally” read the note out loud for a moment of levity during a call with anxious lawmakers.And on a separate call with centrist House lawmakers — which some sources described as “tense” — the president lashed out at Rep. Jason Crow (D-Colo.), Puck News reported Tuesday. “First of all, I think you’re dead wrong on national security. You saw what happened recently in terms of the meeting we had with NATO. I put NATO together. Name me a foreign leader who thinks I’m not the most effective leader in the world on foreign policy,” Biden said, raising his voice.“Tell me! Tell me who the hell that is! Tell me who put NATO back together!” As the discussion around Biden withdrawing from the race has picked up steam and grown heated in recent weeks, so has the president. Those on calls with Biden, since his dismal debate performance last month, have described him as defensive and angry. In recent days, he has also dug in, telling lawmakers, donors and voters that he’s not going anywhere. “We’re dealing with an old, angry man. It’s very Trumpian in some ways. But it’s not a good look,” said one Democratic strategist, who wants Biden to remain in the race. “His mood describes the moment we’re in right now and we need someone to lead us out of this mess.”“But it’s apparent our candidate is not in a good place,” the strategist said. It’s an open secret among those who know Biden that he has “an Irish temper” and can veer from cool to hot rather quickly. In recent weeks, his frustration has spilled into interviews, speeches and calls with allies. The Biden campaign did not comment.

Meghan McCain rips Joe Biden's 'disgusting' Bronze Star comments -- Conservative commentator Meghan McCain slammed President Biden for his reported remarks about Rep. Jason Crow (D-Colo.), an Army veteran who received a Bronze Star, in a recent back-and-forth. McCain, the daughter of the late Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) who vocally criticized former President Trump’s past attacks against her father, wrote Wednesday on social platform X that “[d]isrespecting veterans – no matter which President does it, is disgusting and unpatriotic.”“I hope democrats will call Biden out as vociferously as they have before when [former President] Trump did it,” she wrote.McCain’s comments came in response to a Tuesday report from Puck news detailing a back-and-forth between Crow and Biden during a call the president held Saturday with moderate congressional Democrats.The call centered on the lawmakers’ worries about Biden not being able to secure a second term and how that might affect their own reelection bids, amid a broader push from Democrats for Biden to drop out of the White House race. A source previously described the call to The Hill as “tense” and said the most notable moment was the exchange between Biden and Crow, which the source described as “hard to watch.” “You saw what happened recently in terms of the meeting we had with NATO. I put NATO together,” Biden said on the call after Crow asked about national security, Puck news reported, citing video it reviewed. “Name me a foreign leader who thinks I’m not the most effective leader in the world on foreign policy. Tell me! Tell me who the hell that is! Tell me who put NATO back together! Tell me who enlarged NATO, tell me who did the Pacific basin! “Tell me who did something that you’ve never done with your Bronze Star like my son—and I’m proud of your leadership, but guess what, what’s happening, we’ve got Korea and Japan working together, I put [AUKUS] together, anyway! … Things are in chaos, and I’m bringing some order to it. And again, find me a world leader who’s an ally of ours who doesn’t think I’m the most respected person they’ve ever—”

Ezra Klein, Nate Silver knock Biden for 'elites' quip after new poll - Some prominent media figures are pointing to a new dismal poll for President Biden as evidence that calls for him to step aside atop the Democratic ticket reflect the broader sentiment among voters, rather than from “elites” in the party, as Biden has contended.In the AP-NORC poll released Wednesday, 65 percent of Democrats say Biden should “withdraw and allow his party to select a different candidate,” while only 35 percent say Biden should continue running for president. “So many elites!” New York Times columnist and podcaster Ezra Klein said on the social platform X, responding to the new polling data.“Another lie is that it’s only ‘elites’ who think Biden should be replaced,” pollster Nate Silverwrote on X about the Democratic Party’s messaging. “Actually, even a majority of Democrats think that in most polls.”The reference to party “elites” comes amid fallout from Biden’s disastrous debate performance late last month that sparked calls from within his party for the presumptive nominee to step aside.Biden has remained defiant, however, and has repeatedly said he would stay in the race.In the days following the debate, a through line emerged in his team’s messaging that knocked party “elites” for calling on him to withdraw from the race. He and his team have said his voters are with him and that he would not cave to public pressure.“I’m getting frustrated by the elites in the party, ‘Oh, they know so much more,’” Biden said in an interview on MSNBC early last week. “Any of these guys that don’t think I should run, run against me. Announce for president, challenge me at the convention.”Biden echoed a similar sentiment during his first postdebate interview on ABC News.“I’m not going to care what those big names think,” Biden said. “Come out with me and watch people react. You make a judgment.”Klein, in a subsequent post on Wednesday, said Democrats should have taken note of Biden’spoor polling in February when Democratic respondents were asked about their level of confidence in Biden’s capability to serve effectively as president: 40 percent said they were “extremely/very confident,” 27 percent said they were “somewhat confident” and 32 percent said they were “not very/not at all confident.”In the July poll, 27 percent of Democrats say they are “extremely/very confident,” 25 percent say they are “somewhat confident” while 48 percent now say they are “not very/not at all confident.”“The July number is bad but it’s the February number that should’ve shocked Democrats,” Klein wrote. “Voters have been saying this all along. Democratic, yes, elites have been the ones not listening.”

Biden inner circle shifts ‘moment to moment’ as defections grow - — Joe Biden’s campaign chair insisted on Friday that the president is remaining in the race even as the cascade of Democratic defections continue. In an appearance on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” Jen O’Malley Dillon acknowledged that Biden’s candidacy had suffered from “some slippage of support” since the debate, as concerns spiked among both Democratic officials and voters over his age and mental acuity. But she argued that Biden has proven since then that he’s capable of running an aggressive race, urging Democrats to reunify behind him and shift their focus back onto attacking former President Donald Trump. “The president is in this race, you’ve heard him say that time and time again,” O’Malley Dillon said. “We believe, on this campaign, we are built for the close election that we’re in. And we see the path forward.” But by the afternoon, nine new House Democrats and another Senate Democrat had already called for Biden to drop out, including key figures in the party’s left flank. The 32 Democrats in Congress publicly calling for Biden to drop out. The defiant message came even as the intentions of the Biden family and closest advisers seem to shift “moment to moment,” according to two people who were granted anonymity because they are not authorized to speak publicly about private conversations. Biden is facing intensifying pressure across the Democratic Party to step aside, fueled by worries he’s falling further behind Trump in the polls and could also jeopardize efforts to win the House and Senate. Reps. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.), Chuy Garcia (D-Ill.), Marc Veasey (D-Texas) and Mark Pocan (D-Wis.) said in a joint message to Biden Friday that “it is now time for you to pass the torch to a new generation of Democratic leaders.” The headline of an op-ed from Rep. Sean Casten (D-Ill.) in the Chicago Tribune used the same “pass the torch” phrase and separately cited Democratic voters’ “tremendous fear” that Trump will win the White House. “It breaks my heart to say it, but Biden is no longer up for that job,” he wrote. Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) issued his own statement shortly afterward that repeated the “pass the torch” language, adding that “I believe it is in the best interests of our country for him to step aside.” Later on Friday, Reps. Greg Landsman (D-Ohio), Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.), Betty McCollum (D-Minn.) and Kathy Castor (D-Fla.) also called for Biden to end his campaign. More Democratic lawmakers are expected to publicly air their own concerns in coming days, according to a senior Hill Democrat granted anonymity to discuss private conversations. But a handful of additional defections by longer tenured Democratic senators with years-long relationships with the president would have a much larger impact, the Democrat said. The delicate goal, the Democrat added: Create enough public pressure to force the president’s hand, while allowing him some measure of dignity so that it appears he came to the decision on his own. “He has to say, ‘I know I’m not going to win,’” another Democrat involved in the discussions said of Biden. Despite the building pressure, “it doesn’t matter if at the end of the day you don’t have the guy himself coming up to the podium.”

Jan. 6 committee members leverage Trump in pleas for Biden to step aside - Democrats who played prominent roles on the House Jan. 6 committee — which concluded that Donald Trump poses a unique danger to democracy — are at the forefront of the latest push by members of Congress to call on President Joe Biden to consider dropping his reelection bid. It’s an effort driven by their fears of a resurgent Trump. On consecutive days this week, Reps. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) and Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.) — three of the Jan. 6 panel’s seven Democrats — urged Biden to reconsider his candidacy in light of the party’s eroding confidence in his ability to stave off another Trump presidency. Their statements echoed their assessment of Trump drawn from their work on the select committee. “As a member of the [Jan. 6 committee], I know, perhaps as well as anyone, how unsuitable Donald Trump is to be president,” Lofgren wrote in a letter to Biden made public Friday. “He remains as grave a threat to the Constitutional order and rule of law as he was on January 6, 2021.” Still, the growing outcry among those who investigated Trump’s effort to subvert the election carries more a different weight than the rank-and-file calls for Biden to step aside. Lofgren, in an appearance on MSNBC shortly after she released her letter, added: “I think it’s telling that members of the January 6 committee — myself, Adam Schiff [and] Jamie Raskin — have all suggested that he step aside and that we get another candidate who can beat Donald Trump. Donald Trump is a threat to America. ...He must not be elected.” Not only are all three members top allies of former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who last week told Biden that some Democrats’ grumbling would grow louder, they spent 18 months amassing evidence and attempting to convince the public of the danger Trump posed if he were again in a position of power. The select committee deposed hundreds of witnesses and held widely watched public hearings that portrayed Trump as the leader of a sprawling effort to upend the transfer of power — who then fomented violence at the Capitol when his other efforts failed. “It’s really time for the party to nominate a new leader to carry on the torch as we move forward in this battle that is consequential for the future of this country,” said former Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D-Fla.), another member of the Jan. 6 committee, in a phone interview. “The fact that Adam Schiff is coming out to say this — I worked with him on the Jan. 6 committee — I know he’s saying this because he’s genuinely concerned about the threat of Trump to rule of law.”

Democratic insiders say Joe Biden’s crisis response almost as bad as debate -- Democratic strategists and party insiders say President Biden’s postdebate crisis response has been as damaging to his chances of beating former President Trump in November as the disastrous debate performance itself.They say there’s little Biden can do to change the narrative short of dropping out of the race, a view that is shared by a majority of Democratic senators and a large number of Democratic House members.Gaffes Biden made at the NATO summit and in interviews with George Stephanopoulos andBlack Entertainment Television, the waning support of media stalwarts such as MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough, and the worsening divisions within the Democratic Party have only solidified the prevailing view that Biden can’t beat Trump.Growing pessimism about Biden’s candidacy has fueled a new round of calls from Democratic lawmakers for him to drop out of the race to avoid a potential disaster in November.Democratic strategists say those calls will multiply and get louder next week if Biden stays in the race past the weekend.And they warn that Biden’s fundraising, which has taken a substantial hit this month, will continue to slacken, putting the president in an increasingly difficult position to stage a comeback in the polls against Trump.One Democratic strategist close to a lawmaker who has called for Biden to reassure Democratic voters he can win in November said the Biden campaign has failed to present a clear path to victory.“What everyone has said is we need to see more and, frankly, the last two weeks has been worse than the actual debate in a lot of ways because they haven’t put a plan together and haven’t executed it,” the source said.The strategist said Biden appeared to be an underdog heading into the race, but his prospects of victory plummeted after the debate and further slipped after the attempted assassination of Trump in Butler, Pa., which has united GOP and had a rallying effect on their voters.The source said “a big piece of this is the money” and warned that “donors aren’t just freezing the Biden campaign, they’re freezing everybody out,” noting that not only major donors have withheld contributions but the grassroots “online money is slow,” as well.

Dems to Biden: Time’s up. Get out. - A new wave of Democrats has renewed calls for President Joe Biden to drop out of the race on Friday — a sudden burst of new defectors at the end of a week of crisis for the Biden campaign that’s been defined by leaks and backchannel conversations about the president’s potential exit. It’s a signal that the party has run out of patience and believes a decisive moment is at hand — and the latest indication that Biden has failed to staunch the flood of Democrats urging him to step aside since his disastrous debate performance on June 27. Since then, more than 30 Democrats have called on him to step down while top Congressional leaders are reportedly urging him to reconsider his decision to remain in the race behind closed doors. First on Friday was Rep. Sean Casten, who published an op-ed “calling on Biden to pass the torch to a new generation.”Hours later, four more House Democrats, including two who hail from the Congressional Black Caucus and the Congressional Hispanic Caucus — groups that have strongly backed Biden — released a joint statement calling on Biden to step aside.Shortly after, Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) also called on Biden to pass the torch, becoming the third senator to do so after Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.)made the call late Thursday. Heinrich had previously expressed concerns over Biden but had not explicitly called on him to drop out.By the afternoon, Rep. Greg Landsman (D-Ohio) and Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.) — an ally of former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who is reportedly doing “everything in her power” to make sure Biden steps aside — had joined the pile, releasing separate statements. Then Rep. Betty McCollum (D-Minn.), Rep. Kathy Castor (D-Fla.) and Rep. Morgan McGarvey (D-Ky.) hopped on board. In her statement, McCollum encouraged Vice President Kamala Harris to consider Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as a running mate if she were to become the nominee. Lofgren said the party could not “do a coronation” of Harris, but acknowledged she would be “the leading candidate.” “I think kind of a mini primary, maybe a vetting hosted by former presidents including Obama and Clinton, would be helpful and help focus the attention,” Lofgren said on MSNBC. “And whoever emerges, including Kamala Harris, would be a stronger candidate than if we tried to exclude a transparent public process.”

Most Dems support Kamala Harris replacing Joe Biden if he withdraws: Survey --An overwhelming majority of Democrats say they approve of Vice President Harris replacing President Biden atop the ticket if he decides to step aside, according to a poll released Thursday. The Economist/YouGov survey found 79 percent of Democrats would support Harris at the party’s nominee in November if Biden chose to withdraw from the race. A growing number of Democrats are calling for the incumbent to step aside in the wake of a poor debate performance against former President Trump last month.Roughly 28 percent of Democrats said Harris was more likely than Biden to win against Trump. About 32 percent said the vice president was just as likely and 24 percent said she was less likely to defeat the former president in the fall. More than half — or 51 percent — of Americans believe Biden should definitely or probably step aside and allow another Democrat to run. Just under 45 percent of respondents said the same, while 41 percent said he should not, the poll found.Among Democrats who think he should pass the torch, 68 percent said concerns about his age, health or cognitive function is the biggest reason why he should end his reelection bid. About 23 percent listed concerns around his ability to defeat Trump as the main reason.Although large shares of respondents said Biden should step aside, few said it was likely that the president would do so. Just 4 percent of Americans said it was very likely for him to withdraw, and 15 percent said it was somewhat likely. Roughly 65 percent said it was not very likely or not at all likely that he would drop out of the race.

Biden's potential replacements outperform in swing states: Memo - Four prominent Democrats would perform significantly better than President Biden in key swing states if they replaced him as the party’s presumptive nominee, according to a memo from a Democratic-funded polling group.The BlueLabs draft memo, first acquired by Politico, found that “nearly every tested Democrat performs better than the President” in the swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.The memo singled out four Democrats who bested Biden’s results by roughly 5 points overall across the battleground states: Sen. Mark Kelly (Ariz.), Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.Vice President Harris also outperformed Biden in polling but by a smaller margin than the top four, according to the memo.“Voters are looking for a fresh face. Those more closely tied to the current administration perform relatively worse than other tested candidates,” according to the memo.Biden has faced increasing calls from members of Congress to leave the presidential race over fears that he can’t defeat former President Trump in November, following a weak first debate performance. Biden has adamantly refused the calls.Whitmer has been a popular name among those who have called on Biden to leave the race, though she has called talk of replacing Biden a distraction. Whitmer has also said, however, that she would be open to serving as vice president should Biden exit the ticket.Both Moore and Shapiro are relative newcomers to the national political stage, having been elected to lead their respective states in 2022. Kelly has been a senator since 2020 and fairly comfortably fended off a Trump-backed challenger in 2022.

'Power Play of the Highest Order': DNC Plot to Ram Through Biden Nomination Sparks Fury -- The Democratic National Committee is barreling ahead with plans to cement U.S. President Joe Biden's spot at the top of the party's November ticket weeks before next month's convention in Chicago, an effort that has sparked outrage among congressional Democrats and delegates who are worried about the incumbent's ability to defeat GOP nominee Donald Trump.Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.), a member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus who has said a "major course correction is needed" to avert disaster in November, has been circulating a letter to colleagues expressing concern about the DNC's plans, which were detailed Tuesday by Axios and The New York Times. At least three House Democrats thus far have said they're considering signing the letter, according to Axios.Huffman told the Times in an interview that "to try to squelch debate and jam this through is a power play of the highest order.""That kind of heavy-handed move is not going to go over well with a lot of people," Huffman added.The letter, published in full by Axios, states that "there is no legal justification" for the DNC's plan for a "virtual roll call" among DNC delegates to formally confirm Biden as the party's presidential nominee before the end of the month.The Democratic convention is set to begin on August 19.Without offering specifics on the timeline, DNC Chairman Jamie Harrison confirmed the plans for a virtual roll call in a statement toAxios, even in the face of vocal concerns from congressional Democrats, grassroots activists, and some DNC delegates."We look forward to nominating Joe Biden through a virtual roll call and celebrating with fanfare together in Chicago in August alongside the 99% of delegates who are supporting the Biden-Harris ticket," Harrison said.The Times explained Tuesday that "the process will effectively begin when the rules committee of the Democratic National Convention meets on a video call at 11:00 am on Friday, followed by another party group on Sunday." "All of the more than 4,000 delegates are expected to begin casting their ballots as soon as Monday, a process that is likely to take about a week," the Times continued. "After that, the committee is expected to quickly hold the roll call, a tradition that typically occurs on the convention floor but is being held virtually this year."

The summer surge of COVID in the US and the implications of the anti-public health policy - The US is in the midst of an accelerating summer COVID wave, the ninth such wave since March 2020. The current epicenters are located in the West (one in 37 infected) and the South (one in 43) of the country. Given the complete abandonment of all public health measures, including vaccination, this development is being driven more by waning population immunity coming off the winter peak and less by any unusual “seasonality” patterns to SARS-CoV-2.It also underscores the important fact that we are not in any long-term, low-level endemic phase, a lie that has been perpetuated by every national and international public health official. The virus remains a pandemic pathogen. Its inherent viral characteristics indicate that it will continue to evolve and adapt, given the wide berth provided it by the political elites, whose primary concern is to do the bidding of the financial oligarchs.COVID’s persistence is intimately tied to the nature of a beleaguered globalized capitalism that has placed the profits of a few thousand people over the lives of a working class population numbering in the billions.According to two data websites that model COVID concentrations found in wastewater, those of JPWeiland and Professor Mike Hoerger, the rates of daily COVID infections have risen four-fold since the lows in mid-May. Currently, somewhere between 620,000 and 720,000 Americans are being infected each day, or one in 50 to 70 people.This also means that somewhere between 36,000 and 144,000 people can expect to develop Long COVID. The surge in infections is being driven by the latest variants of SARS-CoV-2, the FliRT subvariants of Omicron, KP.3 and KP.2, which account for 61 percent of all strains, and the LB.1, which accounts for just over 10 percent.One year ago at this time, the daily case rates were at 150,000 infections, indicating that we are not only seeing the summer wave peak earlier than before, but that the lows from one summer to the next are growing higher. And, leaving aside the Omicron peak in late 2021, the peak-to-peak incidence for each winter wave has also grown higher throughout the pandemic.No principled public health figure has ever defined an endemic state as a perpetual saturation of the population with a viral pathogen as is the current situation.Professor Hoerger, the program director of health psychiatry at Tulane University, who runs the top public US COVID forecasting dashboard, warned:Assume co-workers will be working sick or out sick, many people with new “allergies” and “summer colds,” camp closures, delays in auto repairs, sickness after medical and dental visits, flight delays, fender benders, longer wait times, covering other people’s work obligations, missed deadlines, errors and mistakes, sick politicians, increased geopolitical instability, angry outbursts, athletes dropping out of the Olympics and other sporting events, music concert cancelations, nonsensical email, more poorly managed weather events, last minute cancellations, brief small business closures, more conversations about specialty medical appointments, reliving conversations that have already happened but the person forgot, and more co-workers retiring early.These observations are corroborated by the limited data that remains available on the dashboards of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). In the last six months, more than 25,000 people have succumbed to infections. The number of fatalities week to week is climbing again. However, these figures must be viewed as undercounts, given the changes in hospital reporting and dismantling of COVID trackers that have placed the country in a mandated blackout. The undercounting is corroborated by the rise in test positivity, emergency department visits and hospitalizations.

Biden tests positive for COVID-19, will isolate in Delaware -- President Biden has tested positive for COVID-19, the White House announced Wednesday evening. Biden is “experiencing mild symptoms” and “will be returning to Delaware where he will self-isolate and will continue to carry out all of his duties fully during that time,” press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said in a statement. The president experienced upper respiratory symptoms, a runny nose and a cough before receiving a COVID-19 test, according to the White House. Biden plans to isolate in Delaware and received his first dose of Paxlovid. “The President presented this afternoon with upper respiratory symptoms, to include rhinorrhea (runny nose) and non-productive cough, with general malaise. He felt okay for his first event of the day, but given that he was not feeling better, point of care testing for COVID-19 was conducted, and the results were positive for the COVID-19 virus,” his doctor said in a statement. The doctor added that PCR confirmation testing will be pending, Biden’s symptoms remain mild, his respiratory rate is normal at 16, his temperature is normal at 97.8 and his pulse oximetry is normal at 97 percent. The president was expected to speak at a conference in Las Vegas on Wednesday afternoon, but UnidosUS President Janet Murguía came out on stage to tell the audience waiting for him that he tested positive. “Regrettably, I was just on the phone with President Biden and he shared his deep disappointment at not being able to join us this afternoon. The president has been at many events as we all know and he just tested positive for COVID,” she said. Biden, 81, left Las Vegas soon after his positive test was announced. He boarded Air Force One and was not wearing a mask. “Good,” he said. “I feel good.” Earlier on Wednesday, Biden participated in a campaign event at a local Mexican food restaurant around 1:45 p.m. PDT. He took selfies with guests at three different booths and invited other patrons from other booths to get into the photograph, according to reporters traveling with him.

Covid's summer wave surges on as Biden tests positive --President Joe Biden’s positive Covid test is reminiscent of many Americans’ experiences this month, as it comes amid a pronounced wave of summer cases. Though the U.S. is no longer tracking Covid cases, data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention suggests that infections are most likely rising in 45 states and aren’t declining anywhere in the U.S.Indeed, wastewater data show high levels of Covid nationwide — especially in the West and Southeast.Every summer since 2020 has had a wave of Covid cases. The uptick began earlier this year.A number of factors are fueling infections. Most people aren’t masking or taking other precautions as Americans break summer travel records. The weeks of extreme heat across the country have driven people indoors where the virus can spread faster.As an actively campaigning president, Biden has engaged in many of the activities that are conducive to getting Covid: traveling, shaking hands and attending events with large crowds.On Thursday, Biden’s physician, Dr. Kevin O’Connor, said in a statement that the president was “still experiencing mild upper respiratory symptoms,” but did not have a fever. Many other public figures have also tested positive for Covid recently: Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra on Tuesday, second gentleman Doug Emhoff earlier this month, and Sen. Laphonza Butler, D-Calif., and Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass in June. And anecdotally, some people have reported becoming infected for the first time after four years of avoiding Covid. “It’s a little uncertain whether people had asymptomatic infection previously and now they finally developed a symptomatic infection or not,” “But I’m sure there are some people out there that have never been infected, and they’re slowly getting picked off over time. Unless you’re a hermit living in the tundra and don’t interact with anyone, this virus will find you.” “It shouldn’t be a surprise that there are upticks in infection,” “I think it’s a combination of the hot weather leading to people congregating indoors in air-conditioned areas, as well as new variants.” New variants are key to when the surges occur, said Michael Osterholm, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. “Each of the peaks occur relative to the arrival of a new variant,” Osterholm said. While waning immunity from the last round of vaccines also plays a major role, A group of variants collectively known as “FLiRT” makes up more than 70% of Covid infections in the U.S. The name is a reference to their amino acid changes. The variants — KP.3, KP.2 and KP.1.1 — share the same key mutations, which could make it easier for the virus to bypass protection from vaccines or prior infections. Another variant, LB.1, accounts for an additional 15% of infections nationally. A preprint paper from June, which hasn’t been peer-reviewed, suggests that LB.1 could have an advantage over the “FLiRT” variants in terms of immune evasion and infectiousness. CDC data suggests that LB.1 is more dominant in the Northeast, whereas KP.3 is more dominant in southern and western states. There’s no evidence that any of the new variants cause more severe disease than their predecessors. And it’s unclear which of them has staying power. “We’re seeing three or four new variants sort of all competing against each other, and it’s not actually clear which one is going to emerge as dominant,” Barouch said.Unlike other typical winter illnesses such as the flu and RSV, Covid has proven it can spread widely any time of year.“There is no distinct Covid-19 season,” the CDC said in documents published on its website earlier this month. That has some experts suggesting that public health officials need to rethink the timing of Covid vaccines. The next round of updated vaccines won’t be available until this fall.Osterholm, 71, said even he was unsure of whether to get the current vaccine, “which is behind the curveball” in terms of how closely it matches the circulating variants. “Do I get a dose now, knowing that it’ll provide inferior protection, and keep me from getting the new vaccine for at least four months?”The CDC recommends waiting at least four months between doses for optimal protection.Katelyn Jetelina, an epidemiologist who tracks illnesses on her website, “Your Local Epidemiologist,” encouraged older adults who didn’t get a shot this past spring to get it now.“Do it soon, as we want at least four months between this and the upcoming fall dose, so that it works best,” she wrote. Those who test positive now and are at risk for Covid complications should consult their doctor about taking Paxlovid, an antiviral medication that can reduce the likelihood of hospitalization or death, Russo said. Biden, who is 81, is taking Paxlovid after his current diagnosis. He took the medication after a Covid infection in July 2022, then tested positive again after finishing the course. A minority of people taking Paxlovid experience such a rebound, but doctors say it doesn’t alter the drug’s benefits in high-risk people.

Van Jones: 'Terrible day' for Democrats after Biden COVID diagnosis - Democratic strategist Van Jones argued Wednesday was a “terrible day” for Democrats following President Biden’s COVID-19 diagnosis, arguing his response contrasted that of former President Trump, who faced an attempted assassination on Saturday. “Today is a terrible day. If you pull back and look at this thing, strength versus weakness, a bullet couldn’t stop Trump. A virus just stopped Biden,” Jones said Wednesday night on CNN. “You’ve got nominees of this party getting their butts kissed. Biden’s getting his butt kicked by his own party. The Democrats are coming apart. The Republicans are coming together. That’s what’s happening. And at some point, this party has to look at the reality of that,” he added. Biden tested positive for COVID-19 on Wednesday, marking the third time in the past two years the president has tested positive for the virus.The White House on Wednesday said Biden was “experiencing mild symptoms” and would return to Delaware to self-isolate and “carry out all of his duties fully during that time.” He received his first dose of Paxlovid, an antiviral therapy produced by Pfizer.Shortly after the announcement was made, Biden was seen boarding Air Force One to head back to Delaware for self-isolation. He told reporters he felt “good.”It follows a tumultuous few weeks for Biden, whose disastrous debate performance last month sparked concerns from some within the Democratic Party over his ability to beat Trump in November and carry out a second term. It further surfaced the growing worries over Biden’s mental acuity and age.At 81, Biden is the oldest sitting U.S. president. He has faced repeated criticism, especially from Republicans, that he is perceived as weak by voters and global leaders.Biden has rejected calls to withdraw from the race, maintaining he can defeat Trump in the election.The diagnosis came days after Trump was injured in an attempted assassination at a campaign rally last Saturday. One spectator was killed, and two other attendees were injured.A day after the shooting, Trump traveled to Milwaukee for this week’s Republican National Conference, where he has appeared with a bandage over his wounded ear, which he said was hit by a bullet during the incident.Several RNC attendees were seen at the event wearing bandages on their ears in solidarity with the former president.

Biden jokingly alludes to COVID diagnosis in fundraising pitch targeting Musk donations -- President Biden appeared to make light of testing positive for COVID-19 in a fundraising pitch aimed at technology billionaire Elon Musk.“I’m sick,” the president said in a post on the social platform X Wednesday after the White House said Wednesday evening that the president had tested positive for COVID-19.“Of Elon Musk and his rich buddies trying to buy this election,” Biden said in a reply to his post after a two-minute delay, alongside a link to a fundraising webpage. “And if you agree, pitch in here.”White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said in a statement that Biden is “experiencing mild symptoms” and “will be returning to Delaware where he will self-isolate and will continue to carry out all of his duties fully during that time.” “The President presented this afternoon with upper respiratory symptoms, to include rhinorrhea (runny nose) and non-productive cough, with general malaise. He felt okay for his first event of the day, but given that he was not feeling better, point of care testing for COVID-19 was conducted, and the results were positive for the COVID-19 virus,” the president’s doctor said in a statement.Biden’s aim at Musk comes after the Wall Street Journal reported earlier this week that Musk said he will give $45 million monthly to a pro-Trump super PAC. The tech billionaire endorsed former President Trump after he survived an assassination attempt at one of his rallies in Pennsylvania this past weekend. “I fully endorse President Trump and hope for his rapid recovery,” Musk said in a post on X, which he owns.

Marjorie Taylor Greene talks about losing her patience in Congress - Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) opened up about heated exchanges she’s had in Congress in a recent interview. Greene is one of the most outspoken GOP lawmakers in the House and has had tense exchanges with her colleagues. In a recent appearance on comedian Russell Brand’s show, he asked her whether she’d ever said anything and thought, “I shouldn’t have said that actually, that was a bit too intense.” “Yeah, of course,” she responded. She pointed to a heated exchange during a House Oversight Committee hearing in May, when she and other lawmakers were hurling personal insults at each other. At one point, Greene told Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) that her “fake eyelashes are messing up what you’re reading.”This prompted outrage from Democrats, including from Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.). Later on, Crockett appeared to hit back at Greene by asking a hypothetical question about a “bleach-blonde, bad-built butch body.”Greene told Brand that all the lawmakers were just “charging at each other” during the hearing, noting that people only saw clips of that exchange and not the 45 minutes leading up to that.“But no one saw what led to that tipping point,” she said on the episode that aired Wednesday. “And that’s usually the tough part, right, is understanding why are they yelling at each other? What happened? Why did MTG just break and say things like this to people?”She suggested that she only loses her patience when she or former President Trump is personally attacked. “It’s usually because I’m pushed and pushed, and I’m listening to them call Donald Trump ‘our orange messiah,’ or I’m listening to them personally attack me or they’re holding up my tweets or social media posts on X and they’re reframing my words and lying about what I said. And I’m having to sit there and take it and take it and take it,” she said.

Donald Trump says Project 2025 goes 'way too far' on abortion as RNC convention kicks off in Milwaukee -- Former President Trump says Project 2025 goes “way too far” in its abortion policy recommendations, his latest attempt to distance himself from the plan drafted by many former members of his administration. In an interview with Fox News’s Harris Faulkner that aired Monday, as the Republican National Convention kicks off in Milwaukee, Trump said Project 2025 was written by “a group of extremely conservative people” with whom he disagrees. “From what I’ve heard, it’s not too far, it’s way too far,” he said. “They’ve gone, really, too far.” Project 2025 is the conservative movement’s detailed plan for how the next Republican president should wield his power. It was written by the Heritage Foundation with input from more than 100 different conservative groups, independent of the Trump campaign. It’s an agenda of very specific policy recommendations that the next president will be able to do through executive authority alone, crafted by people who served in top posts in the previous administration and who could be poised to do so again should Trump win in November. Trump has been distancing himself from Project 2025, claiming he knows nothing about it, as Democrats try to make it a liability. He’s also aware of the political vulnerabilities around abortion and has been trying to balance the realities of sounding more moderate on the issue while also appealing to the right-wing base. Trump has settled on the position that abortion policy is up to the states, though he still takes credit for ending Roe v. Wade and eliminating the constitutional right to an abortion. “I did a great job getting rid of Roe v. Wade,” the former president said in the interview. “I was able to get it back into the states.” Project 2025’s plan for the Department of Health and Human Services was written by Roger Severino, who served as the Trump administration’s director of department’s Office of Civil Rights. It calls for revoking Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval of the abortion pill mifepristone, which is used in more than half of abortions nationwide. “Abortion pills pose the single greatest threat to unborn children in a post-Roe world,” the document states. The plan says the FDA could also place restrictions on the pills by reinstating a requirement that patients obtain them in person rather than through the mail. It also suggests using a 19th century law called the Comstock Act to prosecute people who send abortion pills or other abortion tools through the mail.

Eyewitness describes seeing gunman on roof during Trump rally shooting in BBC interview -A man who said he witnessed the shooting at a rally for former President Donald Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania, on Saturday told the BBC in a video interview that he saw a man with a gun crawling along the roof of a nearby building outside the rally and later saw the Secret Service kill the suspected shooter.The man told the BBC he'd gathered with friends before the rally and said they were watching it from outside the fenced-in location."We noticed a guy bear crawling up the roof of the building beside us, probably 50 feet away," he told the BBC. "So we're pointing at the guy crawling up the roof…he had a rifle; we could clearly see him with a rifle."The man told the BBC he and his friends were pointing at the man to the Secret Service and alerted local police."The police were like, 'Huh, what?' Like they didn't know what was going on," he said. "I'm thinking, why is Trump still speaking? I'm pointing at the roof… for two to three minutes, and the Secret Service is just looking at us."Next thing you know, five shots ring out," he said. The BBC interview asked if he was certain the shots came from the roof."100%," the man said. "We were telling the police, we were telling the Secret Service."The BBC asked what happened to the shooter.They blew his head off," he said. "Secret Service blew his head off." The gunman and an attendee at the rally were killed, according to the Secret Service. Trump was bloodied in the shooting and later said he was shot in the ear. The Secret Service has released a statement saying the former president is safe.

Trump Assassination Attempt: A Round-Up - by Lambert Strether -- The iconic image (from AP’s Evan Vucci), helpfully annotated to show how composition makes for an iconic image: And speaking of iconic images, if your first thought is “Trump (nearly) died for us”: (Notice, in Vucci’s image, a woman also supporting Trump in his agony.) Icons propagate. Already, T-shirts printed with Vucci’s image are on sale at a New Jersey boardwalk: Having begun, as it were, in medias res, let’s circle back to the beginning, and proceed in an orderly manner. I will aggregate the material I have read on the shooter, the venue, the shooting, and cui bono. I’ll conclude with some of the more humane reactions. Starting with the shooter– We know very little about the shooter, although one of the first things we know about is his partisan affiliation (or proxies therefor). From the New York Post, “Thomas Matthew Crooks ID’d as gunman who shot Trump during Pa. rally” According to state voter status records, Crooks was a registered Republican. The shooter made one singular $15 donation to the liberal ActBlue political action committee on January 20, 2021 — Biden’s Inauguration Day, the Intercept reported [2]. (Smith was not carrying ID; he was identified through the gun and DNA analysis[3].)However, from the Inquirer: [ex-Bethel Park student Max Ryan] Smith recalled participating in a mock debate with Crooks in an American history course in which the teacher had students stand on opposite sides of the classroom to signal their support or opposition. “The majority of the class were on the liberal side, but Tom, no matter what, always stood his ground on the conservative side,” Smith said. “That’s still the picture I have of him. Just standing alone on one side while the rest of the class was on the other … It makes me wonder why he would carry out an assassination attempt on the conservative candidate.” Crooks graduated from high school two years ago. From the Post: Crooks was a member of the 2022 graduating class at Bethel Park High School, the school district confirmed Sunday morning. Video shows him walking across a stage to accept his diploma. He also received a $500 National Math and Science Initative Star Award during his graduating year, TribLive reported. His high school experience was unhappy. NBC: A high school classmate, Jason Kohler, 21, said Crooks was a “loner” who was “bullied so much in high school.” Crooks would regularly wear hunting outfits and was made fun of for the way he dressed. He often sat alone at lunch, Kohler added. His post-high school experience seems not to have been happy, or at leat not STEM-oriented. BBC: Crooks worked in a local nursing home kitchen just a short drive away from his home, the BBC understands. Then there’s the family. CNN: When reached by CNN late Saturday night, Crooks’ father, Matthew Crooks, said he was trying to figure out “what the hell is going on” but would “wait until I talk to law enforcement” before speaking about his son. He could not be reached again on Sunday. We have no motive. BBC: Having established Crooks’s identity, police and agencies are investigating his motive. “We do not currently have an identified motive,” said Kevin Rojek, FBI Pittsburgh special agent in charge, at a briefing on Saturday night.From the New York Post: Crooks, of Bethel Park, Pa., squeezed off at least five to seven shots — one of which grazed Trump in the ear — at an outdoor rally in Butler, just outside Pittsburgh, according to law enforcement sources. Sources said Crooks crawled on the roof of a manufacturing plant more than 130 yards away from the stage at Butler Farm Show grounds.Here is a map from the New York Times that shows the rally site and the manufacturing plant:

Former White House doctor describes aftermath of Trump rally shooting --Rep. Ronny Jackson (R-Texas), a former White House physician, described the aftermath of the recent shooting at a rally for former President Trump in Pennsylvania.According to an interview published Tuesday in The New York Times, Jackson had been onboard Trump’s plane the day following the rally. He redressed Trump’s ear while they were flying to Wisconsin for the upcoming Republican National Convention (RNC). “The bullet took a little bit off the top of his ear in an area that, just by nature, bleeds like crazy,” Jackson told the Times. “The dressing’s bulked up a bit because you need a bit of absorbent. You don’t want to be walking around with bloody gauze on his ear.”Trump faced an assassination attempt Saturday at a rally in Butler, Pa. He was hit in the ear and came into the convention hall at the RNC Monday with a bandage over it.Shortly following the assassination attempt, Jackson and Trump spoke, according to the Times interview.“He picked the phone up and he goes, ‘I’m not taking a lot of calls, but this is my doctor. I’m taking this one,’” Jackson said, per the Times.Jackson said to Trump that he could assist him in any way possible, by way of medicine or media, according to the Times interview. “I would prefer to have you here,” Jackson said the former president said, per the Times. “And I said, ‘OK, enough said.’”Jackson caught a plane Saturday and made it to the former president’s golf club in Central New Jersey near 4:30 a.m. the next day, per the Times interview.The Texas Republican said Saturday that he had a nephew who got grazed by a bullet at the Pennsylvania rally.“They heard the shots, and everybody dropped to the ground,” Jackson explained. “And I don’t know if you guys have the picture or not, but he was grazed in the neck. A bullet crossed his neck, cut his neck, and he was bleeding.”

Gunman at Donald Trump rally in BlackRock ad --Thomas Matthew Crooks, the suspected gunman in the attempted assassination of former President Trump, appeared in a 2022 ad for asset manager BlackRock, the company confirmed to The Hill on Monday.The BlackRock ad was filmed at Bethel Park High School in Pennsylvania, during which Crooks and other unpaid students appeared briefly alongside a real teacher, the firm said in an emailed statement.The company has removed the video from circulation, while making all the video footage available to authorities.The ad was initially part of the campaign “About BlackRock” that focused on its management of retirement plans for U.S. public school teachers.Crooks graduated from Bethel Park High School in 2022, and former classmates told reporters he was bullied relentlessly and was often alone. Authorities say he opened fire at a Trump rally at a farm show in Butler, Pa., on Saturday, wounding the former president and killing one spectator. Two other attendees were critically injured, the Secret Service said. Crooks was fatally shot by the Secret Service on a nearby roof.

Elon Musk endorses Donald Trump after Pennsylvania assassination attempt - Billionaire Elon Musk endorsed former President Trump’s campaign after an assassination attempt on the former president at a Saturday rally, marking a turning point for Musk and his political shift toward the right in recent years. “I fully endorse President Trump and hope for his rapid recovery,” Musk wrote in a post on his social platform X, alongside a video of the former president standing and raising his fist after being shot in the ear. Since posting his initial endorsement Saturday, Musk has posted and reposted dozens of posts on X in support of Trump. The tech billionaire, who owns Tesla and SpaceX along with the social media platform formerly known as Twitter, has feuded with President Biden in recent years and indicated he would be supporting GOP candidates. In March Musk said on X he voted “100% Dem until a few years ago,” but “now, I think we need a red wave or America is toast.” Musk has increasingly criticized Democratic policies, including diversity, equity and inclusion efforts, as well as Biden’s embrace of labor unions and his approach toward immigration and the border. After purchasing Twitter, now X, in 2022 for about $44 billion, Musk unraveled certain content moderation practices on the platform to push for a system he said was designed to promote free speech and allowed back on users, including Trump and other right-wing influencers who had been banned for breaking the platform’s former policies. Musk appeared to be growing closer to Trump in recent months, with The Wall Street Journal reporting in late May that the billionaire and the former president had discussed a possible advisory role for Musk in a second Trump administration. The day before the rally in Butler, Pa., where Trump was injured, Bloomberg also reported Musk donated an undisclosed amount of money to America PAC, a pro-Trump super PAC. The tech billionaire previously vowed not to donate to Biden or Trump as the pair prepares to face off again in November’s election. “While I’ll voice my opinion, I don’t want to, you know, put a thumb on the scale monetarily that is significant,”

Biden says kid gave him middle finger, recounting political rhetoric - President Biden said in an interview Monday that a kid once gave him the middle finger while speaking about heated political rhetoric in light of a recent assassination attempt against former President Trump. “I’ve never seen a circumstance where you ride through certain rural areas of the country, and people have signs there … big Trump signs … saying ‘F Biden’ and a little kid standing there putting up his middle finger,” Biden recounted during an interview with NBC News’s Lester Holt. “I mean, that’s the kind of stuff that is just inflammatory and a kind of viciousness,” he continued. Biden spoke with Holt just two days after Trump was shot while campaigning in Pennsylvania, injuring his ear. The former president was hit less than 10 minutes into the start of the rally, which left one victim and the shooter dead and two others injured. Lawmakers have called for political rhetoric to be toned down in light of the shooting. Biden sat for the NBC News interview as the latest show to Democrats that he’s still up for the job after fending off questions and concerns about his candidacy since a June 27 debate underscored concerns over his age and mental fitness. Some Democratic lawmakers have called on him to drop out, though the president has remained defiant and has not withdrawn.

Widow Of Trump Rally Victim Refuses Biden's Phone Call -- The widow of the firefighter who was shot and killed during the assassination attempt against Donald Trump recently said that she rejected a phone call from Joe Biden because her conservative, Trump-supporting husband would not appreciate her talking to Biden. Helen Comperatore told the New York Post that Biden tried to call her after her husband, Corey Comperatore, died at the Trump rally in Butler, Pa., on July 13, 2024.“I didn’t talk to Biden. I didn’t want to talk to him. My husband was a devout Republican, and he would not have wanted me to talk to him,” she told the news source on July 15, 2024.Her husband was killed, and two people were seriously injured when Thomas Matthew Crooks tried to assassinate Trump while he was speaking at the rally.Helen then went on to say that she didn’t blame Biden for the death of her husband, even though he and the entire establishment have been spreading the hateful anti-Trump rhetoric for almost over the decade, which resulted in the shooting.“I don’t have any ill will towards Joe Biden. I’m not one of those people [who] gets involved in politics. I support Trump. That’s who I’m voting for, but I don’t have ill will towards Biden. He didn’t do anything bad to my husband. A 20-year-old despicable kid did,” she said.Her husband was praised as a hero after his daughter said that he died trying to protect her and the rest of his family at the rally. “He shielded my body from the bullet that came at us. He loved his family. He truly loved us enough to take a real bullet for us,” Allyson Comperatore, the victim’s daughter, said.

There's An Important Lesson In All These Democrats Wishing Trump A Speedy Recovery --Caitlin Johnstone -All the high-profile Democrats who’ve been wishing Trump a speedy recovery from his assassination attempt after years of calling him an existential threat are the same people who now treat George W Bush like a cuddly wuddly snugglepoo after years of calling him an evil dictator. The enmity between these factions is a performance, like cage fighters who hug warmly after weeks of trash talk once their match is over and admit all the drama was really just about promoting the fight and selling Pay-Per-Views.Their actions show you that their conflicts are fake and they’re no more enemies than actors on the stage are enemies, so why should you treat their performance as real? Why buy into the drama of their pretend elections and feigned opposition when they themselves do not? They’re showing you it’s all fake. Believe them.The two “sides” of mainstream politics are not fighting against one another, they’re only fighting against you. Their only job is to keep you clapping along with the two-handed puppet show as they rob you blind and tighten your chains while your gaze is fixed on the performance.

• https://x.com/POTUS/status/1812275407044940079
• https://x.com/VP/status/1812282589807300679
• https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1812271849893442018

All of Trump’s Democratic Party well-wishers prove that for all the whining in recent years about the death of decorum and how vitriolic US partisan feuding has become, they really are all buddies who only pretend to believe the other side is an existential threat to the world. In Washington they’re all on the same team and have generally cordial relationships with the people on other side of the aisle. They just encourage normal Americans to feed all their discontent with the status quo into a hyper-emotional political environment where the barely-existing divisions between the two major factions are inflamed by mainstream pundits and politicians so that their anger will go toward the completely ineffectual activity of voting instead of more direct and revolutionary measures. From the perspective of the empire managers it’s hostile partisan rage for thee, amicable cocktail party relations for we.

Secret Service faces fresh scrutiny over Trump assassination attempt -- The Secret Service is facing fresh scrutiny after Saturday’s assassination attempt on former President Trump, hauling the long-troubled agency back into the limelight over what many see as failures on its part to protect the high-profile GOP nominee. Trump was bloodied Saturday during a Pennsylvania campaign rally after he said a bullet nicked his ear. One rallygoer was killed and two injured in the incident sparked by a 20-year-old gunman, Thomas Matthew Crooks, who had perched atop a building in the vicinity of the event site. Crooks was fatally shot by authorities moments after firing his weapon. Though Trump himself said his Secret Service detail did a “fantastic job” protecting him from the shooter, the agency faced swift backlash over the apparent close call. “This will be highly analyzed, highly scrutinized,” said Lauren Bean Buitta, founder of the national security nonprofit Girl Security. “And if there is a security failure identified, the Secret Service and other agencies will be sharing information and lessons from that incident to try to prevent another occurrence.” Political leaders, lawmakers and social media provocateurs on both sides of the aisle sharply questioned how a lone attacker managed to shoot at Trump. Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) said in a statement that the incident raised “grave concerns” about the security measures taken – or not taken – to protect Trump, while Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) wrote on X that “any third grader would know that it’d be malpractice not to have personnel on the rooftop where the shooter was positioned.” Others called for resignations of agency leadership. Cheryl Tyler, a former Secret Service agent, said that “a lot of work” goes into preparing for major events involving protected individuals. Typically, an advance team of agents is assembled to liaise with local law enforcement, search for vulnerabilities on location and map out contingency plans. The shooter took aim at the former president from a rooftop outside the venue, about 150 meters from where Trump was speaking – a little farther than a football field’s length away. When it comes to determining the placement of a secure perimeter, there is no “rubber stamping” or “definitive answer,” Tyler said of the Secret Service’s process. “The question is, why or why not did the secure perimeter go further? I don’t know those answers – only those who did the advance know those answers,” Tyler said, suggesting the question is one investigators of the incident will likely seek to answer.

Congress dives into widespread probes into attempted Donald Trump assassination - Congressional investigations into the attempted assassination of former President Trump are moving swiftly across six committees in two chambers, with several groups of lawmakers receiving private briefings Monday and a public hearing coming next week.The House Oversight Committee on Monday announced that Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle will appear at a hearing on Monday, July 22. Committee Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) had sent a request over the weekend for her to testify.“The United States Secret Service has a no-fail mission, yet it failed on Saturday when a madman attempted to assassinate President Trump, killed an innocent victim, and harmed others,” Comer said in a statement, adding that while he is “grateful to the brave Secret Service agents … questions remain about how a rooftop within proximity to President Trump was left unsecure.”In preparation for the hearing, Comer and every Republican on the panel on Monday sent the Secret Service a request for various documents, communications and other information regarding the security preparations for the rally.In addition, the Oversight panel has a member briefing scheduled with the Secret Service for Tuesday, a source familiar with the matter told The Hill.Cheatle said in a statement Monday that the agency “will also work with the appropriate Congressional committees on any oversight action.”Over in the House Homeland Security Committee, Chair Mark Green (R-Tenn.) and ranking member Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) had a “detailed call” with FBI Executive Assistant Director Robert Wells on Monday afternoon, a committee spokesperson saiIn the call, the committee leaders were told that the FBI’s Pittsburgh office is leading the investigation into “potential domestic terrorism and the attempted assassination of President Trump.” While the FBI is focused on the gunman and his motive, the Secret Service is conducting a separate review of its security protocol.They were also told that the FBI has conducted nearly 100 interviews so far and has access to the gunman’s phone, which “pleased” Green.The suspected shooter, 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks, was shot and killed by Secret Service agents moments after he opened fire. Trump said in a statement that a bullet had “pierced” his right ear. One rally attendee died, and two others were critically injured.Green received assurances about transparency in the investigation, and hopes to schedule a site visit once the scene had been processed, the spokesperson said.

Pentagon confirms Trump rally gunman not affiliated with military - The shooter who attempted to assassinate former President Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday was not affiliated with any military branch, the Pentagon confirmed Monday. “We’ve confirmed with each of the military service branches that there is no military service affiliation for the suspect with that name or date of birth in any branch active or reserve component in their respective databases,” Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh told reporters. She added that the Defense Department does not plan to make any changes to its force posture following the shooting. The Secret Service has since faced intense criticism as to how Crooks was able to get so close to Trump, with GOP lawmakers pledging congressional investigations into the shooting. President Biden also has directed an independent review of rally security. The incident also raised questions of event security surrounding the Republican National Convention, which began Monday in Milwaukee. Singh said approximately 1,700 National Guard members and a small number of active duty personnel will be providing support to civil authorities until Friday, but the numbers had been preplanned and were “not in response to the events that took place this weekend.” The Guardsmen from Wisconsin, Minnesota and North Dakota will provide civil support, explosive ordnance disposal and security, and any other requirements to aid the FBI, U.S. Secret Service and Milwaukee Metro Police Department.

Eric Trump wants 'real accountability' after rally shooting -- Eric Trump said he wants “real accountability” for security failures that led to the shooting at his father’s rally in Pennsylvania over the weekend Tuesday.“The men and women on that stage, in that moment, are the greatest people in the world,” the former president’s son said in an interview with “CBS Evening News” anchor Norah O’Donnell of the Secret Service agents who protected former President Trump following the shots ringing out at the rally.“I know many of them personally and they’re phenomenal, phenomenal individuals. And I’m sure they’ll get to the bottom of it, but there’d better be real accountability,” the younger Trump said. “You can’t have ex-presidents taking bullets through the ear.”The former president was hit by a bullet in one of his ears after an assassination attempt at a rally in Butler, Pa., Saturday evening, only a few days before the Republican National Convention (RNC) in Wisconsin. He was wearing a bandage on that ear when he went into the convention hall at the RNC Monday.The Secret Service has faced scrutiny in the wake of the shooting, with some questioning as to how the gunman had access to a roof that had a clear line of sight to the elder Trump. Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle said in an interview that aired Monday that it is her responsibility to investigate the shooting.“The buck stops with me,” she said. “I am the director of the Secret Service, and I need to make sure that we are performing a review and that we are giving resources to our personnel as necessary.”In his interview with O’Donnell, Eric Trump said his father’s “ear hurts, and he’s lucky, it was a bad skin wound.” “He’s in great spirits,” the former president’s son added.

Bill Barr says Secret Service director should be fired for response after Trump assassination attempt -Former Attorney General Bill Barr said he thinks Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle should be fired for the way she has handled the fallout from the Saturday assassination attempt against former President Trump.“I would fire her simply for having a tin ear and not coming out and being visible and saying something. Even if we don’t know the story, I think it’s still important to start the discussion and the transparency with the American people,” Barr told Fox News’s Jesse Watters, when asked in a Sunday interview whether he would fire Cheatle.Barr criticized the Secret Service for only briefing the public on security procedures in Milwaukee, where the Republican National Convention will be held this week, rather than address the entire situation head on.“The way they handled today, by trying to just brief Milwaukee and not saying anything about it was so ham-handed that I would fire just for not understanding how the responsibility of government officials to interact with the public,” he said.Barr’s interview came a day after Trump was shot in his ear by alleged gunman Thomas Matthew Crooks, 20, who was subsequently shot and killed by Secret Service agents. The incident took place at a campaign event in Pennsylvania, with Trump’s ear bloodied before he was ushered offstage by security officials.The shooting marked one of the most significant security failures of the Secret Service since former President Reagan was shot in 1981. The FBI said Sunday that the gunman appears to have acted alone and that there was no known ideological motive behind the attempting killing. Authorities are investigating the incident as a “potential” domestic terrorism act.

Secret Service chief says sloped roof use in shooting was safety issue -Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle said in an interview that aired Tuesday morning that a sloped roof used by the gunman who attempted an assassination of former President Trump last weekend at a rally had “safety factor” considerations. “That building in particular has a sloped roof, at its highest point,” Cheatle said in an interview that aired on ABC’s “Good Morning America” Tuesday morning to the outlet’s Pierre Thomas. “And so, there’s a safety factor that would be considered there that we wouldn’t want to put somebody up on a sloped roof. And so, the decision was made to secure the building, from inside.”Former President Trump faced an assassination attempt Saturday at a rally in Butler, Pa. Cheatle and the Secret Service have received scrutiny for their handling of the incident in its wake, but Cheatle said in part of the interview with Thomas that aired Monday night that she won’t exit her role.“I do plan to stay on,” Cheatle said.The U.S. Secret Service has received support from Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas in the wake of the shooting, who said he has “100 percent” confidence in the Secret Service.“I appreciate the secretary’s comments. And we are going to continue to be transparent and communicate with people,” she said in the ABC interview.

Secret Service Explanations For Security Failures Not Adding Up; DHS Inspector General Launches Investigation - In the wake of Saturday's attempted assassination of Donald Trump, the #1 question is how the Secret Service could have failed to secure a rooftop a little over 400ft away - which former Army sniper Rep. Cory Mills called a "sniper's paradise" that was so obvious he wondered aloud whether it was an "intentional" failure. And in typical government fashion, their excuses aren't adding up. According to Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle - who has rejected calls to resign, there was no agent placed on the building because it had a "sloped roof." "That building in particular has a sloped roof at its highest point, and so there’s a safety factor that would be considered there, that we wouldn’t want to put somebody up on a sloped roof," she said in a Tuesday interview with ABC News. "So, you know, the decision was made to secure the building from inside." This is obviously absurd. For starters, the counter-snipers near Trump were perched on a roof with a steeper slope. USSS director Kim Cheatle says sn*pers weren't on the roof where Thomas Crooks shot from because it was "sloped" and unsafe. Ironically, the sn*pers who were behind Trump during the rally were on a sloped roof. "That building in particular has a sloped roof at its…pic.twitter.com/Vg36tXr9rJ Conspicuously absent from the Secret Service's explanation are reports that a local PD sniper stationed on the second floor inside the building saw the shooter, Thomas Matthew Crooks, outside the building and looking up at the roof. He then walked away, returned, whipped out his phone, when one of the snipers took the first of two pictures of him. Crooks then took out a rangefinder - at which point the sniper radioed to a command post. Crooks then disappeared again and came back a third time with a backpack. The snipers called in once again with information that he had a backpack and that he (Crooks) was walking toward the back of the building.By the time other officers came for backup, he had climbed on top of the building and was positioned above and behind the snipers inside the building, the officer said.Two other officers who heard the sniper's call tried to get onto the roof. State police started rushing to the scene, but by that time, a Secret Service sniper had already killed Crooks, the officer said. -CBS News So - law enforcement had eyes-on the shooter the entire time, took pictures of him, notified their command post - and nothing was done until Crooks shot Trump, at which point Secret Service snipers returned fire and killed him.

Johnson calls on Biden to fire Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle -- Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) called on President Biden to fire Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle in light of security failures related to the assassination attempt on former President Trump over the weekend. “I’m prepared this morning to call on President Biden to — to fire — Director Cheatle,” Johnson said on Fox Business Thursday morning. Johnson’s call to fire Cheatle comes a day after he said she should resign, though he acknowledged that Cheatle said she will not step down.“But the oversight here, the mistakes, the ineptitude, whatever it is, was inexcusable. We almost lost the life of a former president. And I think there has to be accountability and it begins at the top. This is ridiculous,” Johnson said.Johnson said he will call Biden to ask him to fire Cheatle but added that the president, currently isolating with COVID-19, “doesn’t take my calls all the time.”Johnson talked about an unclassified briefing call Wednesday for House members by Cheatle and FBI Director Christopher Wray about the assassination attempt.“They did not give satisfactory answers to some very important questions. And some of it needs to be in a classified setting, I suppose,” Johnson said.In a Senate briefing on the matter just before the House one, briefers said that the 20-year-old suspected shooter — who left Trump with an injured ear and one rally attendee dead — had been flagged as suspicious by the Secret Service more than an hour before he fired.A classified briefing for House members is in the works for next week, according to a source familiar with the plans.Johnson is also promising a bipartisan task force with subpoena authority to investigate the assassination attempt. House Oversight and Accountability Committee Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) on Wednesday subpoenaed Cheatle to compel her appearance at a July 22 hearing, saying that the subpoena was necessary due to worries she would back out of the appearance.The Department of Homeland Security said in response that Cheatle would appear, but proposed some dates later in the week or the following week. But an Oversight panel spokesperson indicated the July 22 hearing will proceed.

Chip Roy calls to defund Secret Service post-Trump shooting -- Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) called for the Secret Service to be defunded after the recent assassination attempt on former President Trump raised questions about the service’s ability to keep elected officials safe.Roy joined Fox News’s Laura Ingraham Friday after he attended the funeral of Pennsylvania firefighter Corey Comperatore — the rallygoer who was killed during the shooting at Trump’s rally outside Pittsburgh last weekend.“Right now, the president of the United States — the former president and hopefully soon to be president of the United States Donald Trump — is alive not because of what the Secret Service did, but because he providentially turned his head,” Roy said on “The Ingraham Angle,” adding “that’s the truth of the fact and the fact is, the American people are sick of it.”Roy also criticized members of the Biden administration, saying the public is “sick” of leaders keeping their jobs after events like the assassination attempt and President Biden’s withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan in 2021.“They’re sick of the FBI. They’re sick of the intel community,” he continued. “All of these people keep their jobs and now, the Secret Service endangers the poor president and the sitting Republican nominee and they’re acting like nothing happened.”

Donald Trump picks JD Vance as running mate --Former President Trump has chosen Sen. JD Vance as his running mate for the 2024 election, tapping the first-term Ohio senator and America First firebrand to join the Republican ticket. “After lengthy deliberation and thought, and considering the tremendous talents of many others, I have decided that the person best suited to assume the position of Vice President of the United States is Senator J.D. Vance of the Great State of Ohio,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. Trump cited Vance’s resume, including his service in the Marines, his degree from Yale Law School and his best-selling memoir, “Hillbilly Elegy.” “J.D. has had a very successful business career in Technology and Finance, and now, during the Campaign, will be strongly focused on the people he fought so brilliantly for, the American Workers and Farmers in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Minnesota, and far beyond,” he wrote. “As Vice President, J.D. will continue to fight for our Constitution, stand with our Troops, and will do everything he can to help me MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN,” Trump continued. “Congratulations to Senator J.D. Vance, his wife, Usha, who also graduated from Yale Law School, and their three beautiful children. MAGA2024!”Trump informed Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum (R) on Monday that they were not going to join him on the ticket, leaving Vance as the obvious front-runner.Vance has emerged in recent months as one of the most visible defenders of the former president. Allies have praised him as an articulate voice of the populist conservative movement who has built a strong personal relationship with Trump and his son, Donald Trump Jr., and Vance will likely be a fierce and willing attack dog in the bruising campaign to come.The selection of Vance also comes at a critical moment in the election, just days after Trump was nearly assassinated during a rally in Butler, Pa. Trump has seized on the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee as a moment to rally the base after the stunning turn of events.Vance, 39, has had a rapid rise in the political arena.He is a native Ohioan who enlisted in the Marines and graduated from Yale Law School. He gained national attention with his book, “Hillbilly Elegy: A Memoir of a Family and Culture in Crisis,” which depicted his upbringing and family history of poverty and addiction in Appalachia and offered his insights on the white working class and the causes and effects of economic insecurity.Vance won a Senate seat in 2022, his first run for political office, and has quickly emerged as a face of the New Right and the MAGA movement in Congress. While he has worked across the aisle on numerous pieces of legislation, he is best known in the Senate as a leading voice opposing additional U.S. aid for Ukraine in its war against Russia.Vance was sharply critical of Trump during the 2016 campaign, calling him “noxious” and “reprehensible,” but he has publicly spoken about how Trump won him over during his first term in the White House. Trump eventually endorsed Vance in a hotly contested 2022 primary race. The senator was the first vice presidential contender to attend Trump’s criminal trial in New York City, and he appears often on networks like CNN and CBS News to defend the former president in contentious exchanges.

Trump picks JD Vance for VP: 5 things to know - Former President Trump capped off months of speculation over his vice-presidential pick on Monday, formally choosing Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) as his running mate. The former president selected Vance as the GOP vice presidential nominee on the first day of the Republican National Convention. The Ohio Republican was widely seen as one of three final contenders in the running. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum were also considered in the mix. Though Vance is a staunch ally of the former president, the Ohio GOP senator’s relationship with Trump has been complicated. Here’s five things to know about Trump’s 2024 vice presidential pick:

• He’s an ardent Trump supporter. Vance is one of the former president’s most prominent supporters on Capitol Hill, advocating for Trump and his policies in the Senate. In February, he called on Republicans to vote against a foreign aid package that included money for Israel and Ukraine, arguing at the time that “buried in the bill’s text is an impeachment time bomb for the next Trump presidency if he tries to stop funding the war in Ukraine.” Vance asked Attorney General Merrick Garland in May to look into the constitutionality of Trump’s gag order in the New York hush money probe. He’s also been an effective surrogate during media appearances, including on the Sunday show circuit. During an interview on NBC’s “Meet the Press” last week, he said he would accept the results of the 2024 election as long as it was “free and fair.”
• But he used to be a critic. But Vance was not always a Trump supporter, previously calling the former president an “idiot” and “noxious.” “Fellow Christians, everyone is watching us. When we apologize for this man, lord help us,” the Ohio GOP senator posted on social media in 2016 amid revelations about Trump’s notorious “Access Hollywood” tape. In a piece for The Atlantic that same year, Vance wrote scathingly of the former president, calling him “cultural heroin.” “He makes some feel better for a bit. But he cannot fix what ails them, and one day they’ll realize it,” he wrote. He’s also described Trump as a “cynical asshole” and “America’s Hitler.”
• He’s a bestselling writer. Vance rose to prominence after writing his memoir, “Hillbilly Elegy,” which was published in 2016. The book reflects on his years growing up in Ohio, touching on working-class white America where issues like poverty and alcoholism hit close to home while managing to create a future for himself, including attending Yale Law School. It became popular reading for political observers seeking to understand the rise of Trump in 2016. “I think it speaks to a couple of things: First, that people are really curious about the anger and frustration of the white working class; second, that members of the white working class have been hungry to have someone tell their story,” Vance told The Wall Street Journal in an interview in 2016, regarding his book’s reception. It became a New York Times bestseller and was later adapted into a movie in 2020.
• He would be one of the youngest vice presidents to win. If the Trump-Vance ticket wins in November, Vance would be one of the youngest vice presidents in U.S. history. Vance, who turns 40 in August, would also be the first Millennial to be vice president.
• He represents the isolationist faction of the GOP wing. The Ohio GOP senator’s views on foreign policy represent the isolationist faction of the Republican Party, which the issue of the Russian invasion in Ukraine has highlighted. “The White House has said time and again that it can’t negotiate with President Vladimir Putin of Russia. This is absurd,” Vance wrote in an op-ed for The New York Times in April. “The Biden administration has no viable plan for the Ukrainians to win this war. The sooner Americans confront this truth, the sooner we can fix this mess and broker for peace.” The GOP senator has expressed opposition to aid for Ukraine, writing in his op-ed that the president “has failed to articulate even basic facts about what Ukraine needs and how this aid will change the reality on the ground.”
• His position on abortion has evolved. Vance has previously supported federal restrictions on abortion access, including supporting restrictions after 15 weeks while running for Senate in 2022. However, Vance has mirrored Trump’s more recent rhetoric on the issue, in which Trump has said that abortion access should be left to the states.

Why Donald Trump selected JD Vance as 2024 VP candidate - After months of speculation and many names being floated, former President Trump announced Ohio Sen. JD Vance (R) as his running mate for the 2024 GOP presidential ticket. Trump’s decision was seemingly not set until shortly before he made the announcement on Truth Social on Monday, the first day of the Republican National Convention. But Vance beat out many other contenders who were under consideration to be Trump’s running mate, including the apparent other finalists, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum (R). Vance has embarked on a long path, going from one of Trump’s most fierce critics in the GOP during the 2016 campaign to running alongside him for the White House in 2024. But much has changed since then that made Vance an appealing choice for Trump as his second-in-command. The first-term senator has greatly distanced himself from the comments he made about Trump eight years ago. Vance called Trump “noxious” and “reprehensible” and considered himself a “Never Trump guy.” He also called on the GOP to not make excuses for Trump following the release of the “Access Hollywood” tape in which the then-candidate was heard bragging about being able to grab women’s private parts because he is a “star.” “Fellow Christians, everyone is watching us. When we apologize for this man, lord help us,” Vance posted on social media. But Vance began to defend Trump during his administration and has been one of his most ardent supporters since then. He deleted old posts criticizing Trump and expressed regretabout posting them. Vance supported Trump for reelection in 2020, and Trump endorsed Vance when he was running for the Republican nomination for Senate in Ohio in 2022. Vance reiterated in an interview in May with CNN’s Dana Bash that his previous critiques of Trump were “wrong.” “I didn’t think he was going to be a good president, Dana, and I was very, very proud to be proven wrong. It’s one of the reasons why I’m working so hard to get him elected,” he said. He also has backed Trump’s false claims of voter fraud costing him reelection in the 2020 presidential election and slammed the criminal charges that have been filed against the former president as a sham. Vance will also bring a bit of a name-recognition advantage. He received attention for his 2016 book, “Hillbilly Elegy: A Memoir of a Family and Culture in Crisis,” which became a New York Times bestseller. The book eventually became a movie, released in 2020. His home state of Ohio will also play a key role in November, with a competitive Senate race for Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown (D). Brown faces Republican Bernie Moreno in what will likely be a tight race that could help determine which party will control the Senate in the next session of Congress. Although Ohio has been trending more conservative recently and Trump will likely carry the state easily, Brown has been in office for years and enjoys high popularity, making the Senate contest tougher for Republicans. Vance hailing from the Buckeye State could draw more focus on picking up that seat as the GOP tries to retake the Senate majority. He also brings a balance to the ticket in age, with Trump as the oldest Republican nominee in history. Vance would be just 40 years old on Inauguration Day, and he would be the third-youngest vice president ever, if elected. As the youngest of all the major choices that Trump considered, Vance brings youth to the Republican ticket, with members of both parties expressing an eagerness for the next generation of leaders for the country.

Where JD Vance stands on Ukraine, Israel and China - Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), former President Trump’s newly announced running mate, has worked to establish himself as a key surrogate on the world stage promoting Trump’s “America First” global policy in recent years. Trump’s announcement Monday picking Vance as his vice presidential candidate adds new importance to his foreign policy speeches, interviews and meetings on Capitol Hill with foreign officials and advocates who have worked to influence the senator on U.S. support for Ukraine. U.K. Foreign Secretary David Lammy met with Vance in May in his position as shadow foreign minister in the opposition. Lammy referred to Vance as his “friend” and agreed with the Ohio senator that “we in Europe have a problem that we need to fix with higher defense expenditure.” Vance promoted Trump’s “America First” foreign policy at the Munich Security Conference in February, saying that European countries should shoulder more responsibility for military defense, in particular manufacturing, so the U.S. can pivot to putting resources in Asia against an aggressive China. “We want Europe to be successful, but Europe has got to take a bigger role in its own security. You can’t do that without industry,” he said. Trump has long hammered America’s European allies for not spending more on their own militaries, claiming they rely too much on the U.S. for protection. Vance has raised doubt that the U.S. can maintain military support to Ukraine, saying that the U.S. does not build enough munitions to sustain the level of assistance funneled to Kyiv. And he’s called for engaging with Russian President Vladimir Putin to deliver for “American interests.” “I’ve never once argued that Putin is a kind and friendly person. I’ve argued that he’s a person with distinct interests, and the United States has to respond to that person with distinct interests,” Vance said at the Munich Security Conference. “But the fact that he’s a bad guy does not mean we can’t engage in basic diplomacy and prioritizing America’s interests. There are a lot of bad guys all over the world, and I’m much more interested in some of the problems in East Asia right now than I am in Europe.” Trump too has touted his own relationship with Putin, and promised to swiftly negotiate an end to the Ukraine war if he returns to the White House. That has spurred fears that Trump will pressure Ukraine to cede territory as part of a cease-fire deal. On the Middle East, Vance has echoed Trump’s call for Israel to “finish the job” against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, saying that ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia can only be established once Hamas is defeated in the Gaza Strip. Saudi Arabia has said it can’t establish ties with Israel until it sees a viable pathway to the establishment of a Palestinian State. “Our goal in the Middle East should be to allow the Israelis to get to some good place with the Saudi Arabians and other Gulf Arab states. There is no way that we can do that unless the Israelis finish the job with Hamas,” he said in an interview on CNN’s “State of the Union” in May. “If they can’t even do that, the attitude in the Middle East will be: ‘You can’t trust these guys, they’re not pursuing their own national security.’ So we’ve got to let them finish this job, and I think hopefully, on the other end of it, get to a new era in the Middle East.” In a speech delivered at the Quincy Institute in May, Vance addressed the contradiction between his conditional support for Ukraine — “ I think we should stop supporting the Ukrainian conflict,” he said — and unconditional support for Israel. “A majority of citizens of this country think that their savior, and I count myself a Christian, was born, died, and resurrected in that narrow little strip of territory off the Mediterranean,” he said. “The idea that there is ever going to be an American foreign policy that doesn’t care a lot about that slice of the world is preposterous,” he said. “We want the Israelis and the Sunnis to police their own region of the world. We want the Europeans to police their own region of the world, and we want to be able to focus more on East Asia.”

Russia welcomes JD Vance's views on Ukraine after Donald Trump VP announcement - Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Wednesday welcomed Sen. JD Vance’s (Ohio) position on U.S. military and economic support for Ukraine following former President Trump’s announcement he tapped the Ohio lawmaker as his running mate. “He’s in favor of peace, he’s in favor of ending the assistance that’s being provided and we can only welcome that because that’s what we need — to stop pumping Ukraine full of weapons and then the war will end,” Lavrov said in a press conference Wednesday, according to a translation by Reuters. Vance has repeatedly expressed concerns about continued U.S. military and financial support for Ukraine in its fight against Russia. He once said he doesn’t “care what happens to Ukraine one way or the other.”The Ohio Republican has raised doubt the U.S. can carry on support to Ukraine, arguing the U.S. does not build enough munitions to sustain the level of assistance currently being given to Kyiv.“We will work with any American leader, we will remain ready to work with any U.S. leader, who the U.S. people elect,” Lavrov said, if the leader is “willing to engage in equitable, mutually respectful dialogue,” per Reuters.The Biden-Harris campaign said it was “no surprise” Russia was expressing support for Trump and Vance.“Of course Vladimir Putin’s regime supports Donald Trump and JD Vance — Trump encouraged Russia to ‘do whatever the hell they want’ to our NATO allies, greenlit Putin’s expansion into Europe, and signaled to other dictators around the world that under a Trump-Vance administration the United States will not protect its allies or stand up for America’s core values in the world,” Biden-Harris campaign spokesperson James Singer said in a statement Wednesday.Trump’s choice of Vance sparked alarm bells for some Ukraine supporters who are worriedabout the implications of the pick given his foreign policy viewpoints. It is not yet clear how much influence Vance would have on foreign policy should Trump win reelection in November.Lavrov on Wednesday said he believes there was more dialogue between Russia and the White House under Trump, in contrast to the Biden administration.“It was during the Trump presidency that the sanctions war began. It is fair to say that Obama started it, but sanctions increased during Trump’s presidency, both economic and diplomatic ones. But during that period, the dialogue at the highest level between Washington and us was underway. Right now, there is no such dialogue,” he said, per a translation from CNN. Trump, who has claimed he had more friendly relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin, has repeatedly claimed that he could end Russia’s war in Ukraine in just 24 hours if he were the president.

'A Corporate CEO's Dream': Labor Unions Blast Trump-Vance Ticket - Leading U.S. unions warned voters on Monday not to be fooled by the pro-worker facade constructed by Republican presidential nomineeDonald Trump and his running mate, JD Vance, a Republican senator from Ohio who has opposed congressional efforts to strengthen organizing rights, allowed corporate lobbyists to influence his legislating, and raked in donations from the elites he claims to despise.Liz Shuler, president of the AFL-CIO—the nation's largest federation of unions—said in a statement the combined records of Trump and Vance make clear that, if elected, they "would eviscerate unions and empty workers' pockets just to boost the profits of their corporate friends and donors.""Donald Trump has a miserable record of breaking every promise he's made to working people—from failing to pay his workers and crossing a picket line to his disastrous four years in the White House," said Shuler. "That betrayal would continue if he is reelected—so it's no surprise Trump chose a vice president who will be nothing more than a rubber stamp for that anti-worker vision."Shuler continued:Sen. JD Vance likes to play union supporter on the picket line, but his record proves that to be a sham. He has introduced legislationto allow bosses to bypass their workers’ unions with phony corporate-run unions, disparaged striking UAW members while collecting hefty donations from one of the major auto companies, and opposed the landmark Protecting the Right to Organize (PRO) Act, which would end union-busting "right to work" laws and make it easier for workers to form unions and win strong contracts."A Trump-Vance White House," she added, "is a corporate CEO's dream and a worker's nightmare."Service Employees International Union president April Verrett offered a similar assessment of the Trump-Vance ticket, saying that while Vance "may portray himself as a working-class hero," his "record tells another story." "The truth is that Senator Vance's loyalties lie with the Wall Street bankers and Silicon Valley billionaires who have bankrolled his political career," said Verrett. "Together, Donald Trump and JD Vance will seek to protect the wealthy and corporations while enacting their insidious Project 2025 agenda. There's a stark contrast between Biden-Harris, who have backed workers and taken action to lower prices and raise wages, and Trump-Vance, who side with price-gouging, union-busting corporations."

Trump's Pick of Vance Shows GOP 'Will Stop at Nothing to Ban All Abortion' in US - Reproductive rights advocates are warning that Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump's selection of U.S. Senator JD Vance of Ohio as his running mate proves that "a Trump administration will stop at nothing to ban all abortion" at the federal level, as one leader said."Make no mistake, Trump picked him because of—not in spite of—his anti-abortion bona fides," said Mini Timmaraju, the group's president and CEO, in response to Monday's announcement. "A Trump-Vance administration will be the most dangerous administration for abortion and reproductive freedom in this country's history. We must re-elect President Biden and Vice President Harris to not only restore our rights but to safeguard our democracy."With Vance saying in 2022 that he supports a "minimum national standard" for an abortion ban and arguing that "two wrongs don't make a right" when explaining why he doesn't believe a person who survives rape or incest should be permitted to terminate a resulting pregnancy, Reproductive Freedom for All said it's clear the vice presidential nominee would continue working "in lockstep with extremist Republican" to ban abortion care nationwide.As U.S. voters have resoundingly shown their support for abortion rights following the U.S. Supreme Court's overturning of Roe v. Wade in 2022—with traditionally red states like Kansas and Kentucky among those that have rejected efforts to restrict abortion—Trump and the GOP have recently attempted to portray themselves as "moderating" their views on the matter in recent months.In April Trump declined to publicly endorse a nationwide 15-week abortion ban, saying the issue of abortion rights should be decided by "the law of the state," while the GOP platform released last week omitted a section calling for a nationwide ban—efforts that reproductive rights groups warned should not allay fears about the party's actual views on abortion care.Advocates said Vance's own voting history and positions have clearly exposed how a second Trump administration would govern on reproductive freedom.

Donald Trump's running mate JD Vance is a renewable energy, climate change critic -- Days after a failed assassination attempt, Donald Trump picked Ohio senator JD Vance as his running mate and Vice Presidential nominee. The former Venture Capitalist though, is a known critic of climate change and renewable energy. Interestingly, his home state Ohio has embraced solar power and clean-tech manufacturing. Critics now believe that if elected Vice President, Vance will push for a boost in oil and gas production at the expense of emission-free energy. Ohio ranks seventh among states in the US for natural gas production. Vance has called for expanding production at the Marcellus and Utica shale formations, which are significant output areas. However, Vance has done a U-turn when it comes to his views on climate change. He acknowledged the phenomena of global warming in 2020 saying "we have a climate problem in our society", blaming the emissions in China for the same, while simultaneously lamenting the slow adoption of carbon-free power in the US. While he said back then that solar energy is driving big improvements, it can't meet all of the US' energy needs. By 2022, his views had changed. In an interview in July that year on the Clay Travis and Buck Sexton show, he said there was no climate crisis, dissing the "ridiculous ugly windmills all over Ohio farms that do not produce enough energy to run a cell phone." “The whole EV thing is a scam,” Vance said in the July 2022 radio interview, days before passage of the Inflation Reduction Act. “If you plug it into your wall, do these people think there are Keebler elves back there making energy in the wall? It comes, of course, from fossil fuels.” He also took potshots on Twitter (Now X), saying democrats were pushing a "green energy fantasy" in the US, while China is building coal-fired power plants. "All of this “bring American manufacturing back” from the Democrats is fake unless we stop the green energy fantasy. Solar panels can’t power a modern manufacturing economy. That’s why the Chinese are building coal power plants, something Tim Ryan’s donors won’t let America do," he wrote back then. While Vance turned from a climate change believer to a critic, his home state of Ohio bettered 45 other states of the country in installation of solar generating capacity, according to data from the Solar Industries Association. The state deployed 1.3 GW of solar power in 2023, a 1,230% increase over 2022 and another 20 utility-scale projects are already in the works. Electric Vehicles and battery manufacturing plants are helping Ohio offset jobs lost in production of conventional gas-burning cars. The Workhorse Group Inc., along with battery manufacturer Ultium Cells LLC, who supplies to General Motors, employs around 1,700 workers at its Ohio facility. But Vance's U-turn is no surprise, considering the oil and gas industry has helped fund his political career. He has received more than $3,52,000 in contributions from the oil & gas industry since 2019, as per campaign finance data compiled by the nonprofit group OpenSecrets. Privately held oil trading company Vitol Inc., refiner Marathon Petroleum Corp., and oil producer Artex Oil Co. feature among his top 20 contributors. “This choice signals that a potential Trump-Vance administration would likely double down on fossil fuel expansion at a time when we desperately need to transition to clean energy,” said Cassidy DiPaola, a spokesperson for the Make Polluters Pay campaign at the advocacy group Fossil Free Media.

Vance's criticism of clean energy, climate change grew as Ohio embraced it -- Donald Trump’s newly picked running mate, Senator JD Vance, has grown more critical of renewable electricity and climate change even as his home state of Ohio embraced solar power and clean-tech manufacturing. It’s a contrast that intensified as Vance was campaigning for the Senate — and Trump’s endorsement — in 2022. Now, the former venture capitalist’s approach is drawing fresh scrutiny from critics who say Vance would be a relentless booster of oil and gas at the expense of emission-free energy if he’s elected vice president. “Donald Trump has chosen an avowed climate denier as his running mate who has used his time in Congress to vote against the environment and shill for fossil fuel corporations at every opportunity,” said Lena Moffitt, executive director of the environmental advocacy group Evergreen Action. Conservatives see in Vance someone who will fight for fossil fuel workers. Ohio ranks seventh among states for natural gas production — which took off as energy companies tapped the prolific Marcellus and Utica shale formations — and Vance has called for expanding production there. “Millions of energy workers have been sacrificed at the altar of the green movement, and to have one of their own — someone who knows the struggles of small towns targeted by powerful DC green groups — breathes hope into these struggling communities,” said Daniel Turner, founder of Power the Future, a group that advocates for rural energy communities. Vance’s pivot on climate and energy issues has been swift. In 2020, he was unequivocal in acknowledging global warming. We “of course have a climate problem in our society,” he told a January 2020 conference in Ohio. At the time, Vance blamed “unrestrained emissions in China” for driving the phenomenon, though he also lamented the slow adoption of carbon-free power in the US. Solar energy is driving big improvements, he said, but it can’t meet all US energy needs.

How Lord of the Rings Shaped JD Vance’s Politics - When Donald Trump selected JD Vance as his running mate, he elevated the first millennial who will appear on a presidential ticket. That makes Vance the first politician who came of age during the Iraq War and the Great Recession, an internet native whose political rise coincided with the development of a new group of conservatives that would become the New Right. But perhaps Vance’s most millennial trait is just how geeky he is about Lord of the Rings. The trilogy of novels has been a longstanding nerd favorite for decades, but it became the center of culture during Vance’s high school years thanks to Peter Jackson’s movies.Vance himself has pointed to Tolkien’s high fantasy epics as a window into understanding his worldview. In an archived episode of the defunct “Grounded” podcast from 2021 that no longer shows up in podcast feeds, Rep. Jim Banks of Indiana, who sat next to Vance in Trump’s friends and family box at the convention Tuesday evening, asked Vance to name his favorite author.“I would have to say Tolkien,” Vance said. “I’m a big Lord of the Rings guy, and I think, not realizing it at the time, but a lot of my conservative worldview was influenced by Tolkien growing up.” He added of Tolkien’s colleague: “Big fan of C.S. Lewis — really sort of like that era of English writers. I think they were really interesting. They were grappling, in part because of World War II, with just very big problems.”In the books, the future of civilization rests on the search and eventual destruction of The One Ring. While Frodo and Gollum jostle over the singular ring, true fans know there are a total of 20 rings of power. Vance is apparently among those ranks, as the venture capital firm he founded in 2019 is named Narya, named after one of those other rings that Gandalf wears. Vance’s mentor Peter Thiel similarly named his company Palantir after the crystal ball used by Saruman in Lord of the Rings, and Vance hasinvested in the defense startup Anduril, named after Aragorn’s sword.“By the time of the Lord of the Rings trilogy, Narya has been entrusted to Gandalf to resist the corrupting influence of evil, preserve the world from decay, and give strength to its wielder,” said Tolkien-head John Shelton, who when not engaging in fantasy literature is policy director for Advancing American Freedom, founded by former Vice President Mike Pence. “Gandalf, unlike the other great powers in Lord of the Rings, cared for the hobbits and other lowly people of Middle-Earth, and so it is unsurprising that Vance would see himself as a kind of Gandalf, caring for the forgotten people of his hometown, keeping a watchful eye on them against the corrupting effects of the world.”It’s not too surprising that Lord of the Rings made a strong impression on Vance. The three films, released between 2001 and 2003 while he was in high school, grossed $2.9 billion at the box office and earned 28 Academy Award nominations and 17 wins. Luke Burgis, author of a book about René Girard (another of Vance’s intellectual heroes) and Catholic University of America professor, said he suspects “Vance’s appreciation of Tolkien is not unrelated to his conversion to Catholicism in 2019. Of the many ways that Tolkien’s work exemplifies the Catholic imagination, one is the relationship between the visible and the invisible. I think it’s fair to say that Vance believes there is real spiritual evil in this world, and it can become embodied in rites and rituals.” (At a closed-door speech in September 2021, Vance said, “I believe the devil is real and that he works terrible things in our society.)

Who is Usha Vance, the wife of Donald Trump running mate JD Vance? - Former President Trump announced his pick of Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) as his running mate at the Republican Convention in Milwaukee to great applause and celebration.His announcement has thrust the junior Ohio senator’s wife, Usha Chilukuri Vance, into the spotlight as well.The Hill confirmed Wednesday that Usha Vance will also be introducing her husband on stage at the convention for his highly anticipated speech. Usha Vance is the daughter of academics Krish and Lakshmi Chilukuri. Her parents were born in the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh and immigrated to the United States. Her mother is a biologist and a college provost at the University of California, San Diego; her father is an engineer and a lecturer at the college of engineering at San Diego State University.She was born in San Diego and, according to her LinkedIn profile, attended Mt. Carmel High School. She is also a graduate of the University of Cambridge in the United Kingdom, where she won the Gates Cambridge scholarship. JD and Usha Vance met at Yale, where she received both her undergraduate and law degrees. She spent a year clerking for future Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh when he served as an appeals court judge in Washington, D.C., followed by a year as a law clerk to Chief Justice John Roberts.She has worked for several years as a trial lawyer for the Munger, Tolles & Olson law firm. The firm announced Monday that she had left the firm.In a statement, her law firm told The Hill that “Usha has informed us she has decided to leave the firm. Usha has been an excellent lawyer and colleague, and we thank her for her years of work and wish her the best in her future career.” In an interview with “Fox & Friends” last month, Usha Vance made a rare appearance alongside her husband and reaffirmed her support for his bid to be Trump’s running mate. Usha Vance, who mostly stays out of the spotlight, sounded cautious in her approach to some of the questions, which included everything from their faith to what causes she would pick up if she was to be the second lady of the United States.She added that she doesn’t know if “anyone is ever ready for that kind of scrutiny” that comes with the role of second lady.

CNN Admits Trump On Course For Landslide Win - He continued, “Look what is different. We have Wisconsin as a toss-up. We have Pennsylvania as a toss-up. Two critical states for Joe Biden. Michigan right now, another critical state for Biden, leaning Republican. Georgia, a state Biden flipped, leaning Republican. Arizona, a toss-up state. That was a state Biden flipped. Nevada, a state he won, leaning Republican.”“This is the dire strait for Joe Biden right now on the first night of the republican convention. Tomorrow is 16 weeks to Election Day. Sixteen weeks from tomorrow, we count the votes. It is tough to change a map like this in that amount of time,” King further urged.King went on to explain how Trump is winning in so many States and districts and is competitive in areas that are traditionally Democratic.“So, the warnings to the White House are Donald Trump could conceivably, if the current dynamics in the race hold, get 330 or more electoral votes. That’s what they believe,” King explained.“It’s a very narrow path for Joe Biden. He … has essentially one, maybe two narrow paths to 270,” King highlighted, urging that “Donald Trump has so many. There are viable paths to get him as high as 330, which means you can take some states away, Jake, and he would still get to 270.”CNN’s John King highlighted Tuesday how Donald Trump is on course for a historic landslide victory in November, and could get as many as 330 electoral votes (only 270 are needed to win). “If Donald Trump won, what we have here, dark red states, solid Republican. Light red states, leaning Republican. If he won just those right there, he would already have the path to 270. He would have 272 electoral votes,” King explained.

Republican Hawks Want Mike Pompeo and Tom Cotton in Trump's Cabinet - The more hawkish wing of the Republican party is hoping former President Donald Trump will put ultra-hawks in prominent positions in his cabinet if he’s elected for a second term as a counterbalance to Sen. J.D. Vance being picked as vice president, POLITICO reported on Wednesday. Vance being chosen by Trump has alarmed many Republicans due to his opposition to the proxy war in Ukraine. One influential GOP member of Congress told POLITICO: “I’m scared to death.”The report said Republican hawks hope to see Mike Pompeo, Trump’s former CIA director and secretary of state, as the secretary of defense in a future administration. Pompeo is a staunch supporter of the Ukraine proxy war, Israel, and the US military buildup around China.During his time at the CIA, Pompeo sought revenge against WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange for the organization’s publication of documents detailing the spy agency’s hacking tools, known as Vault 7. In 2021, a bombshell report from Yahoo News revealed that the CIA under Pompeo plotted to kidnap Assange and even discussed killing him.Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) was another ultra-hawk mentioned in thePOLITICO report as a potential counterbalance to Vance. The report said Republican hawks would like to see him as the head of the CIA or inside the White House. Other names mentioned for high-level positions included Trump’s former national security advisor, Robert O’Brien, and Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-TN).Vance became a leading critic of aid to Ukraine when he entered the Senate about a year and a half ago. In an interview with The New York Times, he outlined a potential way to end the war, although he left open the possibility of limited military assistance for Kyiv.“What I would like to do, and what I think fundamentally is achievable here with American leadership — but you never know till you have the conversation — is you freeze the territorial lines somewhere close to where they are right now. That’s number one. Number two is you guarantee both Kyiv’s independence but also its neutrality. It’s the fundamental thing the Russians have asked from the beginning,” he said.“I’m not naïve here. I think the Russians have asked for a lot of things dishonestly, but neutrality is clearly something that they see as existential for them. And then three, there’s going to have to be some American security assistance over the long term. I think those three things are certainly achievable, yes,” Vance added.While Vance was portrayed as an “isolationist” and “non-interventionist,” he is hawkish on Iran and China and strongly supports the Israeli onslaught in Gaza. In an interview on Monday night, Vance came out strongly against Iran, saying, “If you’re going to punch the Iranians, you punch them hard.”Vance has also framed the need to wind down the proxy war in Ukraine as necessary to focus on a military buildup around China, which he has labeled the “biggest threat” facing the US, putting him in line with the Pentagon. “The thing that we can control now is making it costly for them to invade Taiwan, and we’re not doing that because we’re sending all the damn weapons to Ukraine and not Taiwan,” Vance told the Times last month.

At RNC, Republicans make their case for education overhaul - Republicans are looking to take a big swing at education if former President Trump returns to the White House. Rep. Byron Donalds (Fla.) helped kick off the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee this week by singing the praises of school choice, saying the Biden administration is “in the pocket of the far-left teachers unions, they trap poor kids like me in failing schools with no way out.” The official GOP platform emphasizes cutting funding to schools teaching about critical race theory, keeping transgender girls out of women’s sports and deporting “pro-Hamas radicals” from college campuses, among other conservative priorities. “The platform itself this year is very different from previous platforms. The previous platforms were much longer, much more detailed when it came to policy, and, so, even on some of the other education areas it has language that is pointing in the right direction, but without a lot of details,” said Jason Bedrick, a research fellow at the Center for Education Policy at The Heritage Foundation. “So, it’s pointing towards things like parental rights, but what exactly does that mean? How exactly is the party going to implement them? This document is not particularly clear.”Republicans are planning to make big changes after four years of a Democratic presidency that has blocked their efforts regarding parental rights and what they think should be taught in schools. “Republicans offer a plan to cultivate great K-12 schools, ensure safe learning environments free from political meddling, and restore Parental Rights. We commit to an Education System that empowers students, supports families, and promotes American Values. Our Education System must prepare students for successful lives and well-paying jobs,” reads the introduction section of the GOP platform’s education section. Parental rights became an increasingly popular talking point during the COVID-19 pandemic as schools were shut down and academic scores dropped. House Republicans passed a national Parental Bill of Rights back in 2023, but it didn’t move in the Democratic Senate and was unlikely to be signed by President Biden. Other Republican issues at the national level that GOP states have fought in their legislatures include efforts against critical race theory and teaching gender identity and sexual orientation in schools. Eighteen states have already banned critical race theory in K-12 classrooms, with others looking to join in.Four Republican states also sued the Biden administration for including sexual orientation and gender identity in the discrimination aspects of Title IX.“We believe schools should educate, not indoctrinate,” Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) said at the convention on Tuesday. “We stand for parents rights, including universal school choice.” The Republican platform is also signaling support as red states aim to get more religion into classrooms. Louisiana is requiring every classroom to have a poster of the Ten Commandments, while Oklahoma is looking to incorporate the Bible into civics and history lessons. “Republicans will reinstate the 1776 Commission, promote Fair and Patriotic Civics Education, and veto efforts to nationalize Civics Education. We will support schools that teach America’s Founding Principles and Western Civilization” the GOP platform says.

Five cops gun down homeless man in Milwaukee amid massive police presence for RNC -- A homeless man was shot dead in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on Tuesday afternoon by a group of five Columbus, Ohio, police officers who were brought to the city as part of a massive law enforcement presence for the Republican National Convention (RNC) this week. The police shooting of 43-year-old Samuel Sharpe, Jr. took place near King Park, roughly a mile outside the security perimeter set up for the convention. Dozens of Columbus police officers had been dispatched to the park, where 50 homeless people live in tents, for “demonstration response” and to follow a group of protesters that had gathered before starting their march. According to a report by Milwaukee Police Chief Jeffrey Norman, 13 Columbus officers were having a briefing when one of them saw an altercation between two men. He said one of the two was holding a knife in each hand and threatening the other individual. Chief Norman claimed the officers demanded that Sharpe drop the knife and, instead of obeying their command, he suddenly charged toward the other person, at which point the officers opened fire. Norman justified the shooting on the grounds that “Someone’s life was in danger,” and that the officers “took upon themselves to act to save someone’s life today.” Subsequently released and carefully edited bodycam footage was presented by police to bolster the official account of what happened. Officers are seen in a group discussing the protest when one of them says, “He’s got knife.” The officers then run toward the suspect yelling, “Drop the knife.” With their guns drawn and still running, the police come upon the man who can be seen with what appear to be knives in both hands and he briefly approaches the other person. The video then goes black as a hail of gunshots can be heard with the words, “The man was killed at the scene” appearing over the black screen. Eyewitnesses and others who knew Sharpe expressed outrage and denounced the police for the brutal killing. They said Sharpe, who was known in the community as Jehovah, was never a threat to anyone. One eyewitness told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that Sharpe turned toward the police and started to drop the knives before they shot him. The sister of Samuel, Angelique Sharpe, spoke to CNN and said her brother lived in a tent across the street from where he was shot. She said on Saturday and Tuesday her brother had family members that some other men had been threatening to kill him and his dog. She continued, “I saw the bodycam video. If they were concerned about him having a knife, then tase the guy and take away the knife and figure out what’s happening. When you’re in a physical altercation and you’re fighting for your life, you’re in that moment. They didn’t even give my brother time to react to their commands.”

Judge Aileen Cannon dismisses Trump classified documents case (AP) — A federal judge in Florida dismissed the classified documents case against former President Donald Trump on Monday, siding with defense lawyers who said the special counsel who filed the charges was illegally appointed by the Justice Department. Hours later, special counsel Jack Smith’s office said it would appeal the order, which could result in it eventually being overturned by a higher court. But for now at least, the dismissal by U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon brings a stunning and abrupt halt to a criminal case that at the time it was filed was widely regarded as the most perilous of all the legal threats the Republican former president confronted.Though the case had long been stalled, and the prospect of a trial before the November election already nonexistent, the judge’s order is a significant legal and political victory for Trump as he recovers from a weekend assassination attempt and prepares to accept the Republican nomination in Milwaukee this week.It’s the latest stroke of good fortune in the four criminal cases Trump has faced. He was convicted in May in his New York hush money trial, but the sentencing has been postponed after a Supreme Court opinion that conferred broad immunity on former presidents. That opinion will cause major delays in a separate case charging Trump with plotting to overturn his 2020 election loss to Democrat Joe Biden. Another election subversion case filed in Atlanta has been delayed by revelations of a romantic relationship between the district attorney and a special prosecutor she hired for the case.In a statement on his social media platform, Trump said the dismissal “should be just the first step” and the three other cases, which he called “Witch Hunts,” should also be thrown out.The classified documents case had been seen as the most legally clear-cut of the four given the breadth of evidence that prosecutors say they had accumulated, including the testimony of close aides and former lawyers, and because the conduct at issue occurred after Trump left the White House in 2021 and lost the powers of the presidency.The indictment included dozens of felony counts accusing him of illegally hoarding classified records from his presidency at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach, Florida, and obstructing FBI efforts to get them back. He had pleaded not guilty and denied wrongdoing.Defense lawyers filed multiple challenges to the case, including legally technical ones that asserted that special counsel Jack Smith’s appointment by Attorney General Merrick Garlandviolated the Constitution’s Appointments Clause because it did not go through Congress and that Smith’s office was improperly funded by the Justice Department.Cannon agreed, writing Monday that Garland had exceeded his bounds by appointing a prosecutor without Senate approval and confirmation and had undermined the authority of Congress.

Former prosecutor: Dismissal of Donald Trump's doc case 'indefensible' --Harry Litman, a former U.S. attorney and deputy assistant attorney general, said Monday that Judge Aileen Cannon’s dismissal of the classified documents case against former President Trump is “simply indefensible.”“As a legal decision by a district court judge, it’s simply indefensible,” Litman told CNN’s Laura Coates Monday evening. “It almost doesn’t make sense to try to talk about it in legal terms. This is, as I said, the first Project 2025 opinion.”“The principle is only loyalty to Trump,” he added in the interview.Litman’s criticism of Cannon comes after she delivered the former president one of his biggest legal victories yet by tossing his classified documents indictment in its entirety.By ruling that special counsel Jack Smith was unlawfully appointed, Cannon set aside Trump’s 40 criminal charges that accuse him of mishandling classified documents and obstructing the government’s efforts to retrieve them from his Mar-a-Lago resort.Smith said later Monday that he plans to appeal the decision.“The dismissal of the case deviates from the uniform conclusion of all previous courts to have considered the issue that the Attorney General is statutorily authorized to appoint a Special Counsel,” Peter Carr, spokesman for Smith’s office, said in a statement Monday.“The Justice Department has authorized the Special Counsel to appeal the court’s order,” Carr added.Litman noted how quickly the vow to appeal came but said, “However quickly it is, I think she he’s done full service to Trump,” referring to Cannon, “because the 11th circuit I doubt has time to reverse this before the election.” “The state of play for now is it’s been reversed,” Litman continued, in an interview first highlighted by Mediaite. “That check is now paid in full, on her part.” “The very best she could have done for him,” he continued. “The 11th circuit ought to reverse it unless, of course, Trump becomes president, in which case, he’ll just say goodbye and order DOJ to stand down.”

US Justice Department to appeal ruling dismissing Trump documents case (Reuters) - A U.S. judge in Florida on Monday dismissed the criminal case accusing Donald Trump of illegally keeping classified documents after leaving office, handing the Republican former president another major legal victory as he seeks a return to the White House.U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon, who was appointed to the bench by Trump, ruled that Special Counsel Jack Smith, who is leading the prosecution, was unlawfully appointed to his role and did not have the authority to bring the case.The Justice Department said it would appeal the decision.The judge found that U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland, who named Smith in 2022 to oversee investigations involving Trump, did not have the authority "to appoint a federal officer with the kind of prosecutorial power wielded by Special Counsel Smith."It marked another blockbuster legal triumph for Trump.The U.S. Supreme Court ruled on July 1 that Trump has broad immunity from criminal prosecution for official actions he took as president. The ruling came in a separate case against Trump, also pursued by Smith, involving Trump's efforts to overturn his 2020 election loss.Cannon's ruling came two days after Trump was the target of an assassination attempt at a campaign rally in western Pennsylvania. Trump is set to be formally named the Republican presidential nominee in Milwaukee this week, challenging Democratic President Joe Biden in the Nov. 5 U.S. election. A spokesperson for Smith said Cannon's ruling "deviates from the uniform conclusion of all previous courts" that have considered the issue. Courts have consistently found the attorney general has the authority to appoint special counsels to handle certain investigations.U.S. President Joe Biden said he was "not surprised" by the case's dismissal. "It comes from the immunity decision the Supreme Court ruled on," Biden said. "The basis upon which the case was thrown out I find specious."Trump, in a social media post, said the ruling should be "just the first step" and called for the dismissal of all four criminal cases against him.Trump was convicted in May on New York state charges involving hush money paid to a porn star to avert a sex scandal before the 2016 election. Trump had pleaded not guilty in the documents case and in Smith's other case, as well as to election-related charges in state court in Georgia.In the documents case, Trump was indicted on charges that he willfully retained sensitive national security documents at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida after leaving office in 2021 and obstructed government efforts to retrieve the material. Prosecutors have said the documents related to U.S. military and intelligence matters, including details about the American nuclear program.

Senate Banking member Menendez convicted — A jury convicted Sen. Bob Menendez, D-N.J., on all counts in a sweeping corruption case accusing the longtime lawmaker of using his office to enrich himself and his business associates and further the political aims of foreign governments. Menendez is a longtime member of the Senate Banking Committee. He resigned as chair of the foreign relations panel last year, but has remained in the Senate and on the banking panel throughout his trial. He is running for reelection in November as an independent. He becomes the seventh senator in history to be charged and convicted with a federal crime. The jury also found two businessmen accused of bribing the senator, including former banker Fred Daibes, guilty. At the time Daibes made gifts to Menendez, according to the indictment, Daibes faced federal bank fraud charges that could have come with a decade-long prison sentence. Daibes founded and was formerly CEO and chairman of the $414 million-asset Mariner's Bank in Edgewater, N.J., which was bought by nearby Spencer Savings Bank in 2021 for an undisclosed cash payout.According to court documents, Daibes used friends and relatives to secure millions of dollars in loans without the knowledge of Mariner's Bank or the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. between 2008 and 2013. Prosecutors say associates would obtain loans from the bank and turn the funds over to Daibes, then submit falsified documents to hide the fact that Daibes was the ultimate beneficiary. In some instances, Daibes was said to have voted to approve the loans as a member of the bank's loan committee.

Democrats, Progressives Call On Menendez to Resign After Bribery Conviction -- U.S. Sen. Bob Menendez faced fresh pressure to resign on Tuesday after his federal corruption trial ended with a jury finding him guilty on all 16 counts for accepting bribes from three businessmen and acting as a foreign agent for the Egyptian government."In light of this guilty verdict, Sen. Menendez must now do what is right for his constituents, the Senate, and our country, and resign," Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said of the New Jersey Democrat, who had pleaded not guilty.Democratic New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy said in a statement that the verdict "demonstrates that the senator broke the law, violated the trust of his constituents, and betrayed his oath of office. It also shows that in America, everyone—no matter how powerful—is accountable to our laws." Murphy continued:Sen. Menendez received a fair trial and due process of law as he was entitled to under our Constitution. I want to thank all the public servants who play crucial roles in our criminal justice system, including our law enforcement officials, prosecutors, defense attorneys, jurors, and judges. Their hard work ensured that these brazen crimes were proven beyond a reasonable doubt, and our nation is grateful for their service. I reiterate my call for Sen. Menendez to resign immediately after being found guilty of endangering national security and the integrity of our criminal justice system. If he refuses to vacate his office, I call on the U.S. Senate to vote to expel him. In the event of a vacancy, I will exercise my duty to make a temporary appointment to ensure the people of New Jersey have the representation they deserve.Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington president Noah Bookbinder, a former federal corruption prosecutor, similarly released a statement calling on the Senate to act if Menendez refuses to leave voluntarily."After years of ducking accountability for corruption, Sen. Bob Menendez has finally been convicted by a jury of his peers," he said. "There is no room in the Senate for a convicted felon, especially not one convicted of taking bribes. He must resign today or be immediately expelled."

Zelle owner will testify at Senate Investigations hearing — The CEO of Early Warning Services, which owns and operates bank-to-bank payment network Zelle, will testify at a Senate hearing next week on fraud on the Zelle payments network.The Zelle executive, Cameron Fowler, will join executives from JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells Fargo in front of the U.S. Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations to discuss fraud on Zelle on July 23. The Senate panel's investigation into Zelle has found that customers of JPMorgan, Bank of America and Wells Fargo submitted claims reflecting a combined total of $456 million lost to scams and fraud on the payments network. Nearly three-quarters of those losses have never been repaid by the banks, said Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., who chairs the committee. “Year after year, Zelle and the banks that own it have failed to fully protect consumers from a growing threat of scams and fraud," Blumenthal said in a statement. "The banks play 'heads I win, tails you lose,' as sophisticated scammers reap the benefits and consumers lose hard-earned money."The hearing is part of escalating political pressure on Zelle and the banks that are connected to it. "At this hearing, Zelle and its three largest owner banks will finally answer for their unwillingness to make consumers whole when they fall victim to scams and fraud on Zelle," Blumenthal said. "Instant payments must not mean instant losses for consumers."

Senators press AT&T, cloud company for answers on data breach -- Sens. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) and Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) pressed AT&T and data cloud company Snowflake for answers this week following a breach that exposed the call and text records of nearly all of AT&T’s customers. “We write demanding information regarding the breach of AT&T’s private customer data and seek answers about how AT&T failed to protect such profoundly sensitive information from cybercriminals,” the senators wrote in a letter to AT&T CEO John Stankey. AT&T revealed Friday that the records of most of its cellular customers between May and October 2022, as well as one day in January 2023, were illegally downloaded on a third-party cloud platform. The data identifies phone numbers that AT&T customers interacted with and, in some cases, cell site ID numbers. However, it does not include the content of calls or texts, time stamps or any identifying information. “Taken together, the stolen information can easily provide cybercriminals, spies, and stalkers a logbook of the communications and activities of AT&T customers over several months, including where those customers live and traveled — a stunning and dangerous breach of its customers’ privacy and intrusion into their personal lives,” the letter reads. The senators also wrote to Sridhar Ramaswamy, CEO of Snowflake, noting the AT&T breach is the latest to affect the cloud company’s clients. Ticketmaster, Advance Auto Parts and Santander Bank have all recently suffered breaches related to Snowflake. Blumenthal and Hawley pointed to several cybersecurity failures at the companies — including malware infections and failures to update passwords, implement firewall access and turn on multifactor authentication — that “seemingly reflect gross negligence.” “Disturbingly, the AT&T breach appears to have been easily preventable,” they wrote Tuesday.

Microsoft-CrowdStrike issue causes ‘largest IT outage in history’ — Live updateswww.cnbc -- Businesses worldwide grappled with an ongoing major IT outage Friday, as financial services and doctors’ offices were disrupted, while some TV broadcasters went offline. Air travel has been hit particularly hard, with planes grounded, services delayed and airports issuing advice to passengers.The outage came as cybersecurity giant CrowdStrike experienced a major disruption early Friday following an issue with a recent tech update. CrowdStrike CEO George Kurtz has since said that the company is “actively working with customers impacted by a defect found in a single content update for Windows hosts,” stressing that Mac and Linux hosts are not affected.“This is not a security incident or cyberattack. The issue has been identified, isolated and a fix has been deployed,” he said on social media.One expert suggested it may be the “largest IT outage in history.” Separately, Microsoft cloud services were restored after an outage, the company said on Friday, even as many users continued to report issues. Read more:

• How a software update from cyber firm CrowdStrike caused one of the world’s biggest IT blackouts
• Flights grounded, passengers to see delays amid global IT outage
• CrowdStrike shares fall after major outage hits businesses worldwide
• Microsoft, CrowdStrike IT outage hits global supply chain, with air freight facing days or weeks to recover
• Global tech outage hits financial services companies, including Charles Schwab

White House responding to massive IT outage - The Biden administration is racing to assess the fallout from a massive IT outage that is ricocheting across the globe, grounding airplanes, ripping through health systems and snarling IT networks at federal agencies and Fortune 500 companies. Anne Neuberger, deputy national security adviser for cyber and emerging technology, said during a panel at the Aspen Security Forum Friday that she had spent the morning assessing the impact of the outage on all U.S. critical infrastructure sectors, which had included a 4 a.m. wakeup call from the White House Situation Room on the issue. Neuberger said she spoke with George Kurtz, the CEO of cybersecurity giant CrowdStrike, and convened interagency calls to understand the impact of the errant software update, and had reached out to foreign partners to offer assistance as well. Kurtz said in a post on X that the outage was not due to “security incident or cyberattack,” something Neuberger confirmed.Neuberger said government agencies were working “first to assess what’s the impact on U.S. government critical services, second, to assess sector by sector what’s the impact to power in the country, to hospitals in the country, to 911 systems, the national suicide hotline.”Millions of Windows computers which run CrowdStrike software displayed an error message emblazoned against a blue restart screen — colloquially known as the “blue screen of death” — Friday morning. Many security researchers warned within hours that the incident requires manual fixes at each individual computer, and will likely be one of the largest cyber incidents in history.The outage is drawing instant scrutiny on the Hill.Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-NY) sent a letter Friday to CISA Director Jen Easterly urging that the federal government’s Cyber Safety Review Board conduct an investigation of the outage. Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-MO) also plans to ask the Pentagon’s Chief Information Officer for a briefing on the impact of the outage within the DOD, according to a draft letter viewed by POLITICO.DHS, which oversees the CSRB, did not immediately respond to a request for comment about the Torres letter.As of Friday morning, one of the most immediate and visible impacts of the outage was at airports across the globe, where flights were grounded and passengers were left stuck for hours on the tarmac. The Federal Aviation Administration said Friday it was “closely monitoring” the issue and that travelers should expect “ground stops and delays” at various airports Friday.The FCC also said on X it is “aware of reports” of disruptions affecting 911 emergency services.Authorities in the European Union were grappling with the fallout at European airports and financial institutions early Friday. Spokespeople for the U.K. Prime Minister’s office and the The European Commission told POLITICO they were both looking into it. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency are “working with CrowdStrike, Microsoft and our federal, state, local and critical infrastructure partners to fully assess and address system outages,” DHS said in a statement. The Department of Energy is also working with CrowdStrike and Microsoft on assessing and addressing outages, DOE said in a separate statement.

House weighs bank AI legislation in bipartisan report — The House Financial Services Committee's task force on artificial intelligence questioned federal bank regulators, nonbank financial firms and mortgage companies on their use of AI, and to what extent Congress should consider legislation on the topic, according to a report released by the panel on Thursday. The report is the first public action of the working group, a bipartisan effort announced in January and led by Reps. Patrick McHenry, R-N.C., the chairman of the full House panel, and Maxine Waters, D-Calif., its ranking member. Some agencies said that they did not need federal legislation to address AI concerns, while others said it would be helpful. "Certain agencies indicated legislative gaps could appear as AI becomes more widely adopted and sophisticated," the lawmakers said in the report. Although the report was light on details about what kinds of legislation the panel could consider, it did say that the House Financial Services Committee should "explore the potential benefits of a chief AI officer at each financial regulator." Panelists, which include a wide range of regulators and market participants, said that use of AI doesn't exempt banks, mortgage lenders or other financial institutions from obligations like nondiscrimination in lending. With those rules in place, regulators believe they should be able to start overseeing the financial industry's AI models without additional legislation, in a tech-neutral way, although gaps could remain. Regulators must leverage their oversight and enforcement authorities to ensure those obligations are met as well as examine alternative compliance processes, where appropriate," the lawmakers said. "Congress and regulators must work to identify any legislative or regulatory gaps or limitations in light of the application of AI in the financial services and housing industries." Some lawmakers, in roundtables with regulators including the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and Federal Reserve, raised concerns about "lack of definitional clarity" about what AI use in financial services actually means. The Fed, in particular, emphasized the potential financial stability implications of generative AI, a type of machine learning that uses large language models to create text, videos and images, and other AI tools. Specifically, the Fed was concerned about a "monoculture of models" where multiple financial institutions use the same third-party providers, according to the report. "One panelist warned that the widespread adoption of certain AI models may encourage herd-like behavior in capital markets," the lawmakers said in the report. "Firms reported trying to mitigate this risk by subjecting models to rigorous testing before deployment and actively reviewing the models' outputs for partial or skewed results." Some panelists said that many smaller institutions, including banks, might not have all theessential countermeasures in place to address the potential for bad actors to use AI."While some firms use third parties to implement AI into their operations, others, like single-branch community banks, do not have the financial, technological, or personnel resources to do so," the report said.

U.S. Senate Candidate Backed by Hedge Fund Billionaires Was Sitting in Front Row at Trump Rally as the Sniper Fired into the Bleachers By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: ~Dave McCormick, the Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate from Pennsylvania, was sitting in the front row at Donald Trump’s rally in Butler, Pennsylvania on Saturday and narrowly missed being in the line of fire according to an interview he gave to CNN’s Jake Tapper on Sunday morning. According to the PBS video of Trump’s opening remarks at the rally, which also capture the gunfire, Trump called McCormick a “great, great gentleman” and said these exact words about him coming up to the stage: “So we’re gonna bring him up. Can we bring him up for a couple of minutes later?” Democrats currently have majority control of the U.S. Senate while Republicans control the House. Flipping the Senate red while holding onto the House’s Republican majority is a major goal of hedge fund and private equity billionaires who are funneling tens of millions of dollars into key Congressional races. These billionaires benefit from a tax loophole known as “Carried Interest,” where they are able to pay lower taxes than teachers and plumbers. The carried interest loophole has been under attack by progressive Democrats for years, thus there is a big push by billionaires to elect more right-wing Republicans to Congress. A Super PAC created solely for the purpose of boosting McCormick’s chances and attacking his opponent for the Senate seat, incumbent Democrat Bob Casey, is called Keystone Renewal PAC. (Pennsylvania is known as the “Keystone State.”) The wealthiest billionaires in the hedge fund and private equity arena are major donors to Keystone Renewal. An attack ad from Keystone Renewal uses the same demonization of immigrants language that Trump was actually in the process of talking about in the very seconds that the shots rang out at his rally on Saturday. (See the video of the ad here.) The ad promotes McCormick as a combat veteran. He is, more recently, the former CEO of Bridgewater Associates, one of the largest hedge funds in the world. The largest donor to Keystone Renewal, by a wide margin, is hedge fund titan Ken Griffin of Citadel. According to records from the Federal Election Commission (FEC), Griffin wrote out a check for a cool $10 million to the Super PAC on September 25, 2023. In April of last year, Hank Tucker at Forbes wrote this about Griffin: “Ken Griffin is riding high, after posting the most profitable year of any hedge fund in history. He’s worth an estimated $35 billion, $7.8 billion more than a year ago and nearly triple what he was worth in 2020.” For how Griffin is making his billions, scroll down at this link for our extensive reporting on the matter. Paul Singer, founder and President of Elliott Management, an investment firm and hedge fund, also chipped in $2 million on November 2 of last year. Jeff Yass, the richest man in Pennsylvania, has also donated $1 million to Keystone Renewal. Yass is the co-founder and Managing Director of Susquehanna International Group, a hedge fund and trading firm. Forbes puts Yass’ net worth at $28.5 billion. Other notable donors to the Keystone Renewal Super PAC include Steven Schwarzman, Chairman and CEO of private equity firm, Blackstone, who contributed $500,000; Henry Kravis, Executive Chairman of private equity firm KKR, who donated $250,000; Paul Tudor Jones of hedge fund Tudor Investment Corp. who added another $250,000 to the coffers; Thomas Peterffy, founder and Chairman of Interactive Brokers, provided $300,000 in support along with dozens of other notable one-percenters from Wall Street. Of the $21.5 million that Keystone Renewal has thus far reported in donations, just two donors live inside the state of Pennsylvania: Jeff Yass who contributed the $1 million and a retired individual, Joseph Wesley, who donated $25,000. The bulk of the money attempting to elect a Republican Senator to represent the people of Pennsylvania is coming from residents of New York and Florida. Under the U.S. Supreme Court’s twisted Citizens United decision in 2010, this is legal. According to Politico, citing data from AdImpact, Keystone Renewal has booked $30 million in ad buys through the summer and fall to boost McCormick’s chances in the November election. On top of that, Politico reports that another Super PAC tied to Mitch McConnell, the Senate Leadership Fund, has reserved $24 million in ad buys to help McCormick unseat Casey. The ad spend includes network and cable TV, radio, and digital advertising, according to the report. The Senate Leadership Fund could be quite dangerous to the Democrats’ hopes of holding onto the Senate and preventing the wholesale deregulation of Wall Street, the fossil fuels industry, and other powerful industries. According to FEC records, as of March 31, 2024, the Senate Leadership Fund had $59.5 million in cash on hand. That’s likely a very lowball number. The FEC should be updating that information for the most recent quarter any day now. The hedge fund billionaire, Ken Griffin, has given another cool $10 million to the Senate Leadership Fund. A significant part of that Super PAC’s money, however, comes from the fossil fuels industry, with names like Koch Industries, the American Petroleum Institute, Chevron, and Occidental Petroleum on the list of large donors. A Dark Money group, One Nation, ranks among the largest donors, giving two donations that tallied up to more than $7 million.

Bitcoin Soars to $67,300, Michael Saylor Reacts By U.Today --Michael Saylor, a renowned Bitcoin proponent and co-founder of MicroStrategy, has taken to his X handle to share a Bitcoin bullish statement with the global cryptocurrency community. This happened as the leading global digital coin BTC suddenly jumped by 6%, leaving the $67,000 price level behind.Michael Saylor published a diagram of Bitcoin price growth dynamics compared to other assets in the financial markets over the last four years — since August 20, when Saylor’s company MicroStrategy started its regular Bitcoin accumulation.According to this diagram, digital gold (as Bitcoin is often referred to) has increased by an impressive 460%. Next to BTC comes the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes with 64% and 62% increases, correspondingly. Gold has added 21% and silver gained merely 8% over the past four years. While all these assets spearheaded by Bitcoin have been rising in value, bonds, as the diagram shows, has plunged into red, falling by 19%.Commenting on this bullish Bitcoin leadership among the popular assets, Saylor tweeted: “If you're not winning, you're losing. #Bitcoin.” Thanks to regular Bitcoin accumulations over the recent years, MicroStrategy currently holds 226,331 BTC valued at $7.538 billion USD. The most recent purchase was made in June, when the company raised $700 million through offering its investors convertible senior notes specifically to buy more Bitcoin.Earlier this year, a similar fundraising campaign was carried out by Saylor’s company in March when they raised $500 million for an additional Bitcoin purchase.According to Saylor’s earlier tweet, over the same period of time as he mentioned above, the share price of MicroStrategy has skyrocketed by 1,203%.It outperformed Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), whose shares soared in price by 1,050%. Meanwhile, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has increased by 167% since then. It has surpassed such electronics and IT giants as Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Meta (NASDAQ:META). At press time, MSTR is trading at $1,768 USD.During the last 24 hours, Bitcoin has jumped by roughly 6%, reaching the $67,300 zone in light of the news about the global outage faced by Microsoft IT systems around the world after issues experienced by cybersecurity service provider CrowdStrike (NASDAQ:CRWD).By now, Bitcoin has rolled back a little and is changing hands at $66,660.

Digihost crypto mining increases emissions as residents voice concerns — Neighbors are pushing for the state Department of Environmental Conservation to take action against a cryptocurrency mining facility in Niagara County over air emissions and noise pollution that have also drawn concerns from environmental advocates. Digihost, a blockchain mining company, is operating a “behind the meter” facility, meaning they are using a power plant to source energy for the computers and fans needed to mine Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. The North Tonawanda plant — which was previously operated as a peaker plant for use during periods of high demand on New York’s electrical grid has increased its use to near constant operation. The situation has also exposed what some advocates are concerned is an arguable loophole in the state's regulatory process that has allowed the Niagara County facility to operate for more than three years while their application to renew their permit is pending with the state Department of Environmental Conservation. Mandy DeRoche, an attorney with Earthjustice, an environmental nonprofit organization, said the plant previously operated only a few weeks a year to cover electricity demands during heat waves and winter storms, but its use for cryptocurrency mining has jumped exponentially. In the first quarter of this year, the plant operated 84 out of 90 days, using gas fuel. In 2021, prior to the crypto mining operation taking over, the plant operated eight days that year. Carbon dioxide emissions during the first three months of this year are nearly as much as total emissions for 2022 and 2023 combined, according to data provided by DeRoche. Advocates have expressed concern with local air pollution with the significant increase in fossil fuel-based power generation, as well as the impact the emissions could have in reaching statewide goals to reduce air pollution. The Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act, passed in 2019, mandates an 85 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels by 2050. “North Tonawanda is already a disadvantaged community with a disproportionate amount of pollution,” DeRoche said. “This should not be happening under the CLCPA, and we’re obviously very concerned about the climate impacts when the rate of emissions increases so substantially in such a short amount of time.” Crypto mining is based on the concept of blockchains, or web-based digital ledgers in which participants can make and record transactions. Blockchain technology is best-known for the growth of cryptocurrency, or money-like digital tokens that people can use as credits to buy or sell items online. Bitcoin is the predominant cryptocurrency but there are several others. Crypto miners earn money by creating new Bitcoins or other tokens by running highly complex and exotic math formulas, or algorithms, that cryptocurrency users employ to keep track of the currency. The miners who successfully run the formulas get their own currency, which can be exchanged for cash or used to buy things on a blockchain ledger.

Scammers turn to cryptocurrency ATMs to steal cash fast --It took a 36-year-old woman 30 minutes to feed $15,000 in $20, $50 and $100 bills spilling from her purse into a bitcoin ATM tucked in the corner of a Shell convenience store on Tryon Road. After withdrawing more money from a Raleigh branch of the Navy Federal Credit Union, she returned, stuffing $9,100 more into the same machine. She did it after people claiming to work for the credit union and the U.S. government told her someone had hacked her Facebook account, gained access to her financial information and was trying to buy child pornography with her money. That put her and her husband at high risk of arrest, they warned. When she finished feeding cash into the ATM, at first she felt relieved that she had saved her husband and herself from the shame of federal agents wrongly handcuffing them in front of their kid and neighbors. But while driving home to Guilford County, her suspicions grew. She texted the person who over hours walked her through how to deposit her money – which was supposed to cancel out the pornography payment and prove they weren’t involved. She begged for evidence that he wasn’t a fraud. “Wow I believe you took everything I have. Our whole life.” she wrote when no response came. “Please just give me some of it back.” As cryptocurrency ATMs become more common in Raleigh and everywhere else, scammers use them more often to steal money. “It’s a growing problem, and the loss is staggering,” said FBI Special Agent James Kaylor, who supervises white collar crimes investigations in the Raleigh area. In Raleigh, police have seized money 31 times from local crypto ATMs since September 2023 alone while investigating such thefts. The department holds $285,389 in cash seized from the ATMs in evidence, according to court documents. And there’s more drama. Very recently, a Raleigh prosecutor was in court trying to resist demands from ATM operators that they return money to them, not scam victims. At least one operator is expected to get its money back.

Westport man pleads guilty to stealing $4.5M from cryptocurrency firm— A Westport man who once served as a vice president of a cryptocurrency firm has pleaded guilty to stealing more than $4.4 million from them. Dylan Meissner, 31, pleaded guilty to wire fraud, and faces up to 20 years in prison. He was the vice president of finance at a cryptocurrency research firm in January 2022 when he received a $170,000 loan from the business to try to “avoid a substantial loss in certain cryptocurrency investments he had made using his personal funds,” according to an announcement from the U.S. Department of Justice. Then, from February 2022 until he was fired in November 2022, he tried to make up for other losses by using the firm’s funds as his own. He then covered up the fraud by making false entries in business records. In total, he took $4,461,828. He’s been ordered to pay $4,633,424.99 in restitution. He has been released on a $100,000 bond and will be sentenced on Oct. 11

FBI seizes $2.5m in crypto from Thailand based scammers - Crypto crimes have been on the rise on the global stage. Many of these crimes target innocent victims, crypto users, holders, or even fiat to crypto.Law enforcement has remained vigilant with the rise of such crimes targeting the crypto community.According to recent news, the FBI has seized $2.5 million in crypto from a Thailand pig butchering scam.Based on reports from the U.S. government website, the FBI followed a scammer from Thailand operating two crypto accounts holding Tether [USDT].After the FBI investigation, the agency managed to seize USDT with the help of Thailand police.Following the FBI’s seizure of the amounts, a U.S. Attorney of the District of Columbia announced the process of reclaiming the seized crypto.The crypto scam, known as “pig butchering” was targeting American citizens. According to U.S. law, civil forfeiture allows the government to seize any assets from criminals abroad.According to the reports, the seized crypto was held on two Binance [BNB] accounts.U.S. Attorney Matthew M. Graves and Special Agent in Charge Stacey Moy of the FBI’s San Diego Field Office, announced.“Our office will find and hold accountable criminal organizations – whether they operate within the United States or outside of if – that use fraudulent investment schemes like ‘pig butchering’ to defraud victims in the U.S.”He further added,“This forfeiture action demonstrates that scammers cannot hide their illegal activity by using cryptocurrency and engaging in complicated transactions: we will find them, seize their illegal proceeds, and get money back to the victims.”

Binance Helps FBI Recover Funds in 'Pig Butchering' Scams --Pig butchering or slaughtering has become a popular scam method utilized by hackers within the crypto ecosystem.Cryptocurrency exchange Binance announced that it supported the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) in San Diego to investigate a “pig butchering” scam.According to Binance, its Investigations and Case teams participated in the investigation, analysis and seizure of the scam. At the end of the day, their collaborative effort with the authorities led to the uncovering of leads and seizure of $2.5 million victims funds. The seized fund which is precisely 2,546,415.01 USDT Coin (USDT), was seized from two accounts controlled by a perpetrator in Thailand.Pig butchering or slaughtering has become a popular scam method utilized by hackers within the crypto ecosystem. As described by the United States Department of Justice, the scammers usually rely on fraudulent and manipulative tactics to obtain funds from victims. They first establish a level of trust with a victim via online communications.When it’s finally time to strike, they entice the victim into investing in a fraudulent cryptocurrency scheme. The scammers would usually request for additional payments before the victim realizes that they have been defrauded. This pig butchering is also known as Romance Scam where individuals skillfully weave a web of deception, masquerading as someone’s Mr. or Miss Perfect in order to exploit the emotions of their targeted victim.These scammers have mastered the art of manipulating and constantly assuring their victims that they seek the same kind of loving, meaningful relationship they’re so desperately longing for. Once their victims let their guards down, the romance scammers use many different tactics to trick their victims into handing over large amounts of money.Frequently, victims are tricked into investing in a lucrative business. In an attempt to authenticate this so-called investment, the scammers advise their victims to plunge on a small amount. Initially, they allow their victims to make small withdrawals of their “profits” to build confidence that they’re offering a legitimate investment. They become unable to make withdrawals after investing large sums.

Call centers and bank branches are major fraud liabilities - Recently released results from a survey by American Banker's parent company Arizent indicate that as banks look to protect their digital channels from automated fraud branches and call centers have been left behind, leaving them more vulnerable to branch-based fraud activities.The finding is one of many in the research on maximizing fraud prevention while minimizing customer inconvenience. The research is based on a May survey of 158 banking professionals, including executives and upper management at banks of various sizes, mostly banks with more than $10 billion in assets.The survey results explain why banks including JPMorgan Chase have been looking tostrengthen their fraud protections inside bank branches, why bankers see potential in the use of AI to fight fraud in call centers and the opportunity banks have to form more consortia for sharing fraud data and insights. Here are three of the most important findings from the survey:One of the largest opportunities for banks in the fraud space is fraud data consortiums. Among surveyed financial institutions, 61% said consortium data was "critically" or "very" important in the fight against fraud; another 26% said it was moderately important. Meanwhile, only 16% of respondents said they were already participating in a fraud data consortia.Despite a lack of participation, many fraud consortia already exist. Some identity verification companies, including Mitek, Unit21 and Experian, manage fraud data consortia as part of their suite of offerings. Other groups focus exclusively on running a fraud data consortium, including Sonar and the Financial Fraud Consortium."Organizations like the Financial Fraud Consortium offer a platform where institutions can share their insights, explore emerging privacy technologies, and develop unified strategies to strengthen their data privacy and fraud detection efforts," the consortium's website reads.While many consortia focus on creating a forum for sharing knowledge and insights between financial services companies, some have built application programming interfaces, or APIs, that leverage members' fraud data to flag potentially fraudulent transactions.

BankThink: Synapse's failure shows that regulation is no substitute for knowledge | American Banker - In the wake of the Synapse bankruptcy, which has left tens of thousands of consumers in the lurch, there's a growing clamor for what, as this publication put it, "could be a watershed moment for banking-as-a-service regulation." Yet while consumer protection and financial stability are vital, overregulation will stifle innovation, limit competition and potentially harm consumers more than it helps. Any regulation should also address the root cause of the problem.In the case of Synapse's failure, that root cause is less a regulatory issue than a knowledge one: Personnel at the middleware provider simply didn't understand basic banking concepts such as sub-accounting or principles of customer fund management. After all, fintech executives aren't bankers, and many don't have the skill sets and experience necessary to properly steward deposits and manage detailed ledgers.Thus, instead of blanket regulation, policymakers should focus their efforts in more concentrated areas — namely, regulatory sandboxes and consumer education.Regulatory sandboxes allow fintech startups to test their products in a controlled environment, in which necessary oversight does not stifle innovation.Sandboxes have been used globally to test innovations like biometric ID, electronic know-your-customer initiatives and other financial business models and products. The process isundertaken with clear objectives, test criteria and timelines. For example, a 2017 United Nations report illustrated how London-based remittance provider WorldRemit used Bank Negara Malaysia's sandbox to test a solution for remote customer identification. The project enabled the company to accept mobile photos of customer IDs and BNM to create additional e-know-your-customer guidelines that allowed competitors of WorldRemit to leverage this important innovation.Something similar could be developed in the U.S., where participating banks agree to a time-bound test period with fintech partners, in full view of regulators and with safeguards in place to ensure proper accounting and fund management is taking place. Along the way, fintechs could engage banking experts as they build and manage their platforms and establish a base level understanding of banking operations and accounting.The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau tried doing something like this with their Compliance Assistance Sandbox, or CAS, program. CAS was beneficial in that one of its primary aims was to reduce "regulatory fear" faced by fintech firms — a primary reason why new products are scrapped, or not developed in the first place. The program provided not only beta-testing opportunities between banks and fintechs but gave the latter additional support via no-action letters and disclosure waivers.Yet the program, which ran from 2019-2022, was ultimately eliminated and replaced with the Office of Competition and Innovation. It's time we evaluate the possibility of implementing programs like this again. Passing Rep. McHenry's Financial Services Innovation Act, which would establish federal regulatory sandboxes within federal agencies, would be a great start.Efforts should also be focused on educating consumers about the risks and benefits of fintech products. Empowered consumers can make informed decisions, reducing the need for heavy-handed regulatory intervention. At the same time, fostering a culture of transparency and accountability within the fintech industry itself can mitigate many risks without harming innovation.New FDIC rules that go into effect on January 1st, 2025, will help by creating an even more specific framework about how to communicate which products are FDIC-insured, as well as clear and conspicuous disclosures for those that are not. This is a great start — but more can be done.

Comerica likely won't be able to renew lucrative Treasury contract -- Comerica Bank has received notice from the Treasury Department that it will likely lose a lucrative government contract involving debit cards for Social Security recipients and veterans, which would wipe out more than $3 billion in non-interest bearing deposits at the Dallas bank. On Friday, Comerica disclosed that the $71.8 billion-asset bank received preliminary notification that it was rejected as the financial agent for the Treasury's Direct Express program, though it also said the contract decision is not yet final. The program offers a way to deliver government benefits to roughly 4.5 million Americans who do not have bank accounts."At this time we do not expect that Comerica Bank will retain the business long term," Jim Herzog, Comerica's chief financial officer, told analysts Friday. "The process remains fluid as contract negotiations are not yet final."Treasury did not immediately respond to a request for comment.Comerica's stock price fell 10.6% to $50.38 a share in intraday trading after the company released its quarterly earnings report, which included the disclosure about the Direct Express contract.Shares in Comerica fell Friday based on the loss of the Direct Express bid and on 2024 net interest income guidance that was updated by the bank's management to drop 14%, worse than the 13% decline that was previously projected, Ben Gerlinger, an analyst at Citigroup, wrote in a research note.Comerica has faced allegations that it mismanaged the Direct Express program, violating contractual obligations by outsourcing fraud complaints from Direct Express beneficiaries to a vendor in Pakistan. There have also been allegations that Comerica shared sensitive consumer data with vendors and failed to reimburse beneficiaries who claimed their government benefits were stolen.

Bank regulators call for enhanced customer oversight in illicit finance update - Federal regulators are weighing changes to their oversight regimes to combat illicit finance.The Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, National Credit Union Administration and Treasury Department initiated a joint rulemaking Friday related to the compliance oversight programs for the Bank Secrecy Act, or BSA, and Anti-Money Laundering/Countering the Financing of Terrorism, or AML/CFT.The proposed rule largely mirrors existing policies on the books today, the agencies note, either through supervisory expectations or through the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network's current AML/CFT framework. The network, also known as Fincen, is a bureau of the Treasury Department. It was required to update its AML/CFT rules by the Anti-Money Laundering Act of 2020. The agencies say they are running their own notice and comment rulemaking process to ensure financial institutions are subject to the same requirements regardless of their primary supervisor."In that way, banks would comply with one standard rather than differing program rule requirements between FinCEN and the agencies," the regulators said in a joint statement. "The amendments also would incorporate certain long-standing supervisory expectations and technical amendments."Key changes include enhanced customer due diligence expectations, including the collecting of beneficial ownership information. This is currently part of Fincen's AML program, so the agencies say its impact on banks should be minimal. The proposal also notes that financial institutions should have a presence in the U.S. and employees responsible for overseeing their illicit finance prevention programs who are "accessible to, and subject to oversight and supervision by, FinCEN and the appropriate Federal functional regulator."The agencies also outlined their expectations for bank oversight programs, noting that they should have processes for identifying, evaluating and documenting illicit financial activities. The proposal notes that these should be done in accordance with the priorities established by Fincen.Regulators also affirmed their commitments to meeting their AML Act obligations, including supervising institutions for compliance and improving their so-called "feedback loops" with banks. The proposal also notes that banks should make use of technological innovations whenever appropriate to improve illicit financial oversight practices. The document states that financial institutions will have some liberty to identify and implement innovative approaches and, where possible, the agencies will assist in this process.

Loper Bright and Cantero are ushering in a new era of preemption — Financial legal experts say two Supreme Court rulings on preemption and agency deference this year could strengthen state consumer protection laws against national bank preemption, require courts to apply more thorough independent judicial review of state banking laws and add pressure on the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to revise its rules governing when national banks can skirt state laws. "If I'm a national bank, I'm going to rethink my reliance on those preemption rules, given what the Supreme Court has said," said Alexandra Barrage, a partner at Troutman Pepper and former FDIC executive. "It seems likely to me that the 2nd Circuit will not grant judicial deference to the [OCC's] preemption rules, because the Administrative Procedures Act and the holding in Loper Bright says courts have to exercise their independent judgment, courts have to look at [whether] the agency acted within its statutory authority. Courts may not defer to an agency interpretation simply because the statute is ambiguous or unclear."Many in the banking industry anxiously awaited the Supreme Court's decision in Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo — which ultimately overturned Chevron deference. Chevron held that courts can now apply their own analysis to ambiguous legal statutes rather than having to defer to agency interpretations. Loper Bright will have implications for the substance and form of regulatory actions across the government, but have even more of an impact on questions of federal preemption because of a somewhat lower profile case handed down by the Supreme Court earlier in the term.In that case — known as Cantero v. Bank of America — the plaintiff and borrower Mr. Cantero contended that Bank of America should pay interest on a mortgage escrow account as mandated by New York law, which requires such accounts receive a minimum of 2% interest. However, BofA — a federally chartered bank — argued that the National Banking Act preempts such state requirements, asserting that federal law should supersede state law. The lower courts differed in their interpretations of preemption. The 2nd Circuit applied a "control" test, suggesting state laws can't control national banks' activities, while the 9th Circuit used an 'interference' test, determining that only state laws significantly hindering a national bank's operations would be preempted. The Supreme Court found both standards flawed and remanded the cases back to the lower courts and demanded they apply a nuanced analysis based on historical precedents and the significant interference standard as referenced in the Dodd-Frank Act.Preemption is grounded in the Supremacy Clause of the U.S. Constitution, which establishes that federal laws override conflicting state laws. The OCC has historically interpreted its preemption authority expansively, particularly with its 2004 rules which explicitly preempted state laws affecting national banks' real estate lending, non-real estate lending and deposit-taking powers. Section 1044 of Dodd-Frank codified a standard for preemption that was established in the Supreme Court's 1996 decision Barnett Bank v. Nelson, which held that state laws are preempted if they prevent or significantly interfere with a national bank's exercise of its powers. Dodd-Frank states that state consumer financial laws are also preempted if they favor state banks over national banks. The OCC's current preemption rules, which were last revised in 2011, continue to assert the federal agency's broad preemptive authority, including by specifically preempting state laws regarding escrow account requirements.Barrage notes that taken together, the two decisions upend how banks approach state consumer financial protection laws as the OCC's broad preemption rules must now face independent judicial review.

Hsu says OCC will update its state preemption standards — Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu Wednesday said his agency is reviewing its preemption regulations in light of a recent Supreme Court decision —Cantero v. Bank of America — that requires a higher burden of proof for national banking rules and laws to preempt state laws."Fortifying core preemption powers will provide certainty where it matters the most — i.e., with regard to safety and soundness and compliance with federal laws and regulations … is legally absolute and non-negotiable, and the OCC will act accordingly to defend that," he said. "At the same time, we are reviewing the agency's 2020 interpretation of preemption under the Dodd-Frank Act to determine whether updates are needed in light of the recent Cantero decision."The Supreme Court's decision in Cantero held that the Second Circuit had applied the wrong test when it ruled the National Bank Act preempted a New York law requiring banks to pay interest on escrow accounts as applied to national banks. The lower court had found that the NBA preempted New York's escrow interest law because it was deemed to exert "control" over the national bank's power to create and fund escrow accounts by requiring the national bank to pay interest on customer's escrow accounts. The Supreme Court remanded the case back to the lower court and instructed the Circuit to analyze whether the state law significantly impeded the national bank's power, a higher standard known as the Barnett standard.Named after a precedent established in a 1996 case known as Barnett Bank of Marion County, N.A. v. Nelson — the last time the Supreme Court reviewed national bank preemption under the National Bank Act — the Barnett precedent requires courts to consider whether state law prevents or "significantly interferes" with a national bank's exercise of its powers. In addition to the "significantly interferes" test, the Supreme Court directed the Second Circuit to re-evaluate the case using the text of the state law, relevant precedents and using "common sense."Hsu indicated that in light of the decision, the agency will work to define what kinds of functions the agency believes are ironclad functions of national banks — which may preempt certain state laws which interfere with such functions — as well as update its regulations around nonessential functions that satisfy the Barnett test and that national banks must observe.

Goldman Sachs, facing capital buffer increase, will pare buybacks -- Goldman Sachs plans to pull back on share repurchases after the Federal Reserve Board hit the investment banking giant with an unexpectedly large capital requirement. Goldman expects to "moderate" its pace of buybacks compared with the second quarter, when it repurchased $3.5 billion of common stock, Chief Financial Officer Denis Coleman told analysts Monday. The retreat is in response to the company's "higher than expected" stress capital buffer requirement, Coleman said during the firm's quarterly earnings call. Starting Oct. 1, Goldman's stress capital buffer, which is mandatory capital that larger banks must hold in order to weather an economic downturn, will jump from 5.5% to 6.4%. The 90-basis-points year-over-year increase, which is one of the biggest among large and regional banks, is based on the results of the Fed's annual stress tests, released in late June.Goldman is pushing back on the Fed's findings. During Monday's call, CEO David Solomon said the firm is "engaging" with regulators to better understand the "discrepancy" between the way Goldman views its ability to handle an economic downturn and how the Fed views it."The year-over-year increase in our stress capital buffer does not seem to reflect the strategic evolution of our business and the continuous progress we've made to reduce our stress loss intensity, which the Federal Reserve has recognized in our last three tests," Solomon said.The Financial Times reported Sunday that Goldman filed an appeal with the Fed over its latest stress test results. On Monday, a Goldman spokesperson declined to comment on whether the firm has filed an appeal and referred back to executives' public remarks on the call.

Trump picks Senate Banking member Vance as running mate — Former President Donald Trump has tapped Sen. J.D. Vance, R-Ohio, as his vice presidential pick for the 2024 presidential election ticket. Vance, a new member of the Senate Banking Committee, is currently serving as the junior senator from Ohio. He was vaulted to fame after the publication of his 2016 memoir, "Hillbilly Elegy," which described the economic struggles of white, working class voters in the Rust Belt where he grew up. On the Senate Banking Committee, Vance has become emblematic of a rising tide of populist politics in the Republican party, bucking the stances of typical conservative lawmakers in banking policy by being more skeptical of corporate orthodoxy and critical of industry interests. He has occasionally teamed up with Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass. — one of the leading progressive voices on the committee — on issues like executive compensation after the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and other large regional institutions last summer. He also signed on to a bill championed by Sens. Dick Durbin, D-Ill., and Roger Marshall, R-Kansas, that requires credit card issuers to allow their cards to be run on two separate rails that are not both Visa and Mastercard. Vance previously worked as a venture capitalist. During the 2016 election, Vance decried Trump's candidacy, but by the time he decided to run for Senate in 2022, he reframed himself as a Trump supporter, and adopted many of his views. While bank or financial policy is still unlikely to play a significant role in the 2024 presidential election, Vance's selection to join the Republican ticket would give him a strong voice in choosing regulators to fill banking regulatory vacancies in a second Trump administration.

BankThink: Stop letting credit unions buy community banks | American Banker - Tax-exempt credit unions are acquiring taxpaying community banks at a record rate. Already this year, both the number of transactions and value of bank assets sold to credit unions have met or exceeded all-time highs. Outdated federal policies and regulations mean taxpayers are subsidizing these takeovers, enabling credit unions to use their members' capital to make all-cash offers for smaller community banks rather than using the money to benefit their members, as was originally intended. While community banks have long bristled at the inequities of the credit union tax exemption, the current surge in these acquisitions displaces local sources of credit and expands the federal tax exemption given to credit unions. Congress needs to take immediate action to reform policies that foster this trend and ultimately subsidize banking consolidation on Main Street. Accounting for roughly a quarter of this year's banking industry deals, credit union acquisitions are fundamentally fueled by the industry's tax exemption — a relic that hasn't been updated since Congress passed it in 1934. While community banks contribute roughly $15 billion in annual tax revenue, the credit union industry enjoys a tax exemption worth approximately $4 billion per year, based on the industry's net income. This tax break for nearly $2.2 trillion only grows as credit unions acquire more community banks. These deals can materially damage local communities. With community banks accounting for roughly 60% of U.S. small-business loans under $1 million and 80% of banking industry agriculture loans, these deals displace critical providers of capital in local communities. And each transaction expands the portion of the financial services industry exempt from Community Reinvestment Act requirements for lending to low- and moderate-income consumers and small businesses in local markets. While the CRA applies to community banks and virtually every other depository institution, credit unions are fully exempt. This was originally due to credit unions' establishment more than a century ago to serve people of modest means with a common bond, but lending data show they are falling short of that mission as they expand beyond it. According to Home Mortgage Disclosure Act data, community banks outnumber credit unions by a 2-to-1 margin in low-income or distressed communities and are more likely to lend in census tracts with elevated poverty and unemployment levels. These deals also pose a threat to U.S. cybersecurity. The National Credit Union Administration is not authorized to examine credit union third-party service providers for cyber risk. NCUA Chairman Todd Harper has called this lack of authority a "regulatory blind spot" that could leave his industry as the "soft underbelly" of the broader financial system. Harper has also noted that the NCUA is the only financial services regulator that doesn't do a "deep dive" exam to ensure compliance with federal consumer protection laws. While states such as Colorado, Minnesota, Mississippi, Nebraska and Tennessee have acted to restrict these deals, this trend requires a federal solution to ensure fair competition. Taxpayers deserve to know why their tax dollars are underwriting financial services consolidation. Congress can start by holding hearings examining the credit union tax and CRA exemptions and how they are driving community bank acquisitions. With credit unions using their tax exemption to gain a government-stamped competitive advantage, policymakers should closely examine the various policies encouraging these deals. Lawmakers should also consider an "exit fee" on these deals to capture lost tax revenue. The exit fee — similar to excise taxes on political expenditures to 501(c)(3) organizations — would be payable by the acquiring credit union to capture part of the tax revenue lost once the acquired bank's business activity becomes tax-exempt.

Capital One battles community group skepticism over Discover deal — Several community groups, and one lawmaker, opposed Capital One's acquisition of Discover during a public hearing on Friday. Capital One earlier this week rolled out a post-merger community benefit plan for its proposed merger with Discover, a deal that would create the nation's largest credit card company. The plan included $44 billion of total community development investment and financing, and was negotiated with the Woodstock Institute, the National Association for Latino Community Asset Builders, NeighborWorks America and the Opportunity Finance Network. Overall, the plan touts $265 billion in lending, investment and philanthropy over five years. A robust community lending plan can help banks win regulatory approval for deals from regulators skeptical about the impact a merger might have on the public. Still, some prominent community investment groups continued to oppose Capital One's proposed acquisition of Discover during the early part of an all-day hearing held jointly by the Federal Reserve Board and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency on Friday. "This merger is a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad idea," said Jesse Van Tol, president and CEO of the National Community Reinvestment Coalition. "I could just end my testimony there, and it's not just because it would create another "too big to fail" bank, and not just because it would undermine competition and prices, it's also because Capital One is a bad actor with a long history of consumer abuse." He also argued that Capital One's plan doesn't make as large of an increase in community investments as the bank said that it would in the community plan announced earlier this week.

Capital One rolls out community benefit plan ahead of merger hearing -Capital One Financial has pledged hundreds of millions of dollars in community development activity, and hundreds of millions more in philanthropy, if regulators approve its acquisition of Discover Financial Services.Capital One rolled out a post-merger community benefit plan Wednesday morning, touting $44 billion of total community development investment and financing, representing a roughly 25% uptick from the bank's precommitment output.This total includes $575 million of donated funds and pro bono engagements, as well as $600 million in support for community development financial institutions, or CDFIs, through loans, equity investments and deposits.The plan quickly drew pushback from advocacy groups that had already lined up in opposition to the Capital One-Discover deal.It is common for banks looking to grow through mergers or acquisitions to release benefit plans, negotiated with community organizations, in an effort to grease the skids for regulatory approval. The Federal Reserve Board and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency are set to hold a joint public meeting about the controversial deal on Friday.Capital One negotiated the plan with the Woodstock Institute, the National Association for Latino Community Asset Builders, NeighborWorks America and the Opportunity Finance Network. “This plan delivers high-impact, scalable solutions for low- and moderate-income communities, and its commitments and ambition reflect the robust, candid dialogue that drove its development," said Andres Navarrete, executive vice president and head of external affairs at Capital One, in a written statement."We have long valued community and customer feedback on our products, policies, and programs, recognizing that our partners are often the closest to the needs of the community, and we are deeply grateful to our negotiating partners and the many other community members and leaders across the country whose feedback and innovative ideas are reflected in this plan."

Hedge Funds Boost Bearish Bets On Corn To Record --Hedge fund managers have ramped up their bearish bets on US corn futures to record levels, driven by elevated grain supplies and the best early crop ratings in years. These factors have pressured corn prices lower. Bloomberg data reveals that money managers have boosted their short-only positions in Chicago corn futures and options to 507,901 contracts, exceeding the previous record of 506,000 contracts in 2019. The net position, which accounts for the difference in long and short holdings, was bearish by 353,983 contracts, the largest since 2006. Last month, Reuters reported that an above-average volume of corn remains unsold, and if these grain inventories are not depleted, then supplies could reach six-year highs by late summer 2025."Farmers risk waiting too long to sell as a flood of newly harvested grain is likely to drag down prices this October and November. Buyers, aware the harvest is coming, still need enough supplies to keep processing plants running and exports flowing this summer," Reuters said. Elevated supplies have pressured prices in Chicago to under the $4 a bushel level, the lowest level since early 2020. Bloomberg noted last week that US farmers are now holding the largest stockpiles of corn since 1988: "The US farmers, who are the world's largest corn producers, have been holding off selling early in the season as prices of the key grain slide toward $4 a bushel for the first time since 2020." The USDA's latest monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report revealed that demand for corn moved slightly higher. The report, released last Friday, has so far put a floor under prices.

CFPB says payroll advances are loans; major blow to earned wage industry --The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is proposing an interpretive rule that would classify payroll advances as consumer loans subject to annual percentage rates and fee disclosures, a move that could upend the earned wage access industry.On Thursday, the CFPB is expected to issue new guidance that would subject paycheck advance products to the federal Truth in Lending Act. Earned wage access companies that ask for tips or charge fees — typically from about $1.99 to $4.99 — would have their business models upended by the rule, experts said. Employers that market the products as a benefit to employees and that charge no fees or tips would be exempt from the guidance. CFPB Director Rohit Chopra said that products that stand between workers and their wages "typically work in favor of the employer and against the worker," because some workers take on debt to meet daily and unexpected expenses. "Delays between work and pay can drive consumer demand for other forms of debt like credit card debt, payday loans and other costly credit," Chopra said Wednesday on a conference call with reporters to explain the guidance. "This can lead to a treadmill of debt that keeps getting faster and faster. When delays in payments to workers get longer, it can exacerbate the problems people face and trap them in cycles of debt."Consumers take out an average of 27 paycheck advance loans a year, according to Thursday's report, and paycheck advances charge annual percentage rates of 109.5% on average, the CFPB said. The majority of costs for payroll advances come from fees that are charged to get expedited access to the funds, the CFPB said. The new guidance would reverse progress that the earned wage access industry has made inlobbying several state legislatures to get special state licensing just for their products. Many also exempt paycheck advances from state usury caps. The CFPB's interpretive rule would replace and expand upon a previous advisory opinion that focused exclusively on free, employer-sponsored products. The current proposal makes clear that if workers obtain money and they are required to repay it through a paycheck reduction, then that money is a loan under existing federal law, Chopra said. "In today's economy, most people don't get paid until days or weeks later. That means that American workers are essentially giving a free loan to their employers," Chopra said. 1

Earned wage access providers rebuke CFPB, plan to sue over proposal Paycheck advance providers are gearing up to sue the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau over a proposed interpretive rule issued Thursday requiring the disclosure of costs and fees.The $22 billion-dollar "earned wage access" industry is vigorously defending itself from the CFPB's proposed federal regulations that would classify paycheck advances as consumer loans subject to the Truth in Lending Act. "The industry will file a lawsuit because there are billions of dollars at stake," said Dan Quan, a fintech investor, co-founder and general partner at NevCaut Ventures, and a former CFPB senior advisor.Last month, the industry asked the CFPB to issue a formal rulemaking on paycheck advances. Instead, the CFPB released a nonbinding interpretive rule and a study that found paycheck advances are extensions of credit and that any fees and tips, such as expedited delivery fees, are considered finance charges on a loan subject to TILA disclosure requirements. Industry trade groups are exploring their legal options and looking at specific ways to challenge the CFPB's rule once it is finalized. Michele Alt, co-founder and managing director at Klaros Group, said the CFPB's interpretive rule will be subject to challenge in light of the recent rollback of Chevron deference by the Supreme Court. Other experts said trade groups may sue under the Administrative Procedure Act because the agency reversed previous guidance made under the Trump administration. "I think we're going to see an APA challenge that the rule is arbitrary and capricious with no deference being given," said Alt, adding that the CFPB's 20-page proposal was "thin" in its legal analysis.

Debt collectors defend doctors in skewering CFPB medical debt plan -Debt collectors are not usually discussed in the same breath with doctors, but both industries face billions in lost income under a plan by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to ban medical debt from credit reports.A new report financed by the debt collection industry claims that debt collectors will face higher litigation costs and will sue consumers more often under a plan by the White House and the CFPB to eliminate medical debt from credit reports.Credit experts and consumer advocates think the report will be used to support litigation against the CFPB once a final rule is issued. The report claims the CFPB failed to conduct adequate research and didn't take into account the economic impact that its proposed rule would have on medical providers, particularly small doctors' practices. Industry also claims that the 60 day period for public comment on the proposed rule is inadequate. Comments are due by August 12. "The argument for banning medical debt from credit reports is that people don't choose to get sick or be uninsured or to have massive amounts of medical debts," said John Utzheimer, president of Ulzheimer Group in Atlanta, and a longtime credit industry expert. "But don't doctors deserve to get paid?" Debt collectors — who recognize they have little sympathy from the public — are painting the CFPB's plan as dire for small and rural physician practices that stand to lose an estimated $24 billion once the plan goes into effect. Debt collectors themselves are estimated to lose 8% of their annual revenue under the plan. Debt collectors cannot attempt to collect a debt that is not actually owed, Ulzheimer said, adding that the $24 billion estimate in the report "really is $24 billion that is owed to doctors.""To suggest that all of that debt or any meaningful percentage of that debt is not actually owed is untrue. It's owed," he said. "This other myth is that lenders don't care about medical debt, and that is very much not true. They care."

Federal Reserve fines Walmart-linked Green Dot Corp $44 million after customers lost access to funds -- Green Dot Corp., a company that partners with Walmart to sell prepaid debit cards at the retail giant, has been fined $44 million by the Federal Reserve for "numerous" alleged failures that harmed consumers over a period of at least five years.In a release Friday, the Fed said Austin-based Green Dot had violated consumer law and committed unfair and deceptive practices that resulted in users being unable to access their own money.The Fed identified instances of purported wrongdoing by Green Dot starting in 2017 and continuing through December 2022 that included failing to properly close accounts and assessing fees on them, and denying certain customers access to funds while offering inadequate ways for those customers to redress the situation.It also said Green Dot failed to notify customers that they could no longer register debit cards by phone after the company discontinued that service, and that it failed to properly disclose the fee it charged while partnering on tax-refund deposits with TurboTax.In addition to the fine, Green Dot is required to implement numerous new compliance efforts that Federal Reserve regulators must approve.Last year, NBC News reported on issues faced by Green Dot card users that extended beyond the timeline identified by the Fed, with affected customers describing"nightmare" scenarios as recently as August 2023 of being unable to pay bills on time because they could not gain timely access to their money.A Green Dot spokesperson said most of the issues identified by NBC News reporting were the result of a system upgrade.In a statement Friday, Green Dot CEO George Gresham said the company was "pleased to confirm the consent order has been finalized." "The order relates to practices in place years ago, and we have taken and will continue taking meaningful steps to correct and remediate those issues, including significant updates to our processes, our product packaging and marketing, our management team and our compliance programs," Gresham said.

UnitedHealth Reports $7.9 Billion in Q2 Profits After Protesters Arrested A day after 150 people assembled outside the headquarters of UnitedHealth Group to demand the for-profit health insurance giant stop its "systemic" denial of coverage, the company announced Tuesday the huge profits it raked in over the second quarter of 2024: $7.9 billion. The sum, said one organizer, exemplifies why the demonstrators were willing to risk arrest to speak out against the firm's practices. "UnitedHealth Group's $7.9 billion quarterly profit announcement is the result of a business model built on pocketing premiums and billions of dollars in public funds, then profiting by refusing to authorize or pay for care," said Aija Nemer-Aanerud, Health Care for All campaign director for People's Action Institute. "People should not have to turn to public petitions or direct actions to get UnitedHealthcare to pay for the care they need to live. That makes no sense, unless you're a shareholder or executive eyeing your next big luxury purchase." Eleven people were detained by police at Monday's demonstration, where they blocked the street in front of UnitedHealth's headquarters in Minnetonka, Minnesota, displaying signs that read, "United (Denies) Healthcare" and "The Price Is Wrong." The demonstration was organized by the Care Over Cost campaign at People's Action Institute, which has worked to help people across the country overturn care denials by UnitedHealth and other for-profit insurance giants. Gina Morin of Auburn, Maine spoke at the event about having her mental health treatment denied by her Medicare Advantage plan administered by UnitedHealth. "Two years ago my therapist was denied payment for seven of my mental health sessions she provided," she said. "I tried to pay her even though I'm on a limited income and she wouldn't take the money. If my provider, in her professional opinion, believed I needed those therapy sessions, who is UnitedHealth to deny coverage?"

Target Just Became the Latest US Retailer to Stop Accepting Payment by Checks. Why Have So Many Stores Given Up on Them? -- Can you still use a check to make purchases? In increasing numbers of stores across the U.S., the answer is “no.” The large retailer Target stopped accepting checks on July 15, 2024. It follows decisions a decade earlier by supermarketchains Whole Foods and Aldi to no longer accept this form of payment. Target said it was phasing out checks because not many customers use them. It’s a fair point: Check usage has fallen dramatically around the world in recent decades. However, as a business school professor who studies how people pay for goods and services, I wonder if Target might have another, unspoken motivation. After all, customers started the switch away from checks years ago. What’s new today is a rise in check fraud. Paper checks are simply directions telling banks how much money to move from one account to another. Today, these directions take anywhere from a few days to a few weeks to be carried out. That’s why stores prefer customers pay with debit cards, which act like checks but remove money from an account immediately. The Federal Reserve, the U.S.’s central bank, processed 17 billion checks a year back in 2000, compared with 3 billion today. Until 20 years ago, all checks had to be physically returned to the person writing the check after they were processed so that the writer could make sure the amount they wrote the check for matched what was deducted from their account. Years ago, I paid all my bills by check, and each month, my bank would send a fat envelope — which I never opened — containing my canceled checks. To physically return all the checks, the government maintained a special fleet of planes that each night flew canceled checks around the country. Then in 2004, a new law allowed banks to send customers pictures of their checks, which eliminated the need to fly them. Many people now use their bank’s online bill payment service. While many of these payments are done electronically, payments to smaller businesses and individuals are done by the bank writing a check on your behalf. Plus, there are still people who write out checks to landlords, contractors, charities and government agencies. Many people still give checks at weddings, births and other special occasions. Last, many businesses still write checks to other businesses when paying their bills. Given that checks are still being used — albeit less often than before — why are businesses like Target, Whole Foods and Aldi refusing them? I think an important part of the story is that check fraud is becoming rampant in the U.S.The U.S. Treasury has a dedicated department that fights monetary crimes, called the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, or FinCen for short. FinCen gets “Suspicious Activity Reports” from banks about activities from money laundering to loan fraud. FinCen reports that the number of check fraud cases has exploded since 2020, nearly doubling from 2021 to 2022.One of the biggest places where this fraud occurs are checks written at the cash register. As the Atlanta Fed points out, “Anyone with graphics software and a high-quality printer can readily turn out counterfeit checks.”Merchants are hit with a double whammy when check fraud occurs. First, they lose the merchandise, which cannot be sold to a legitimate customer. Then, unlike shoplifting, the store is faced with more financial pain because most banks charge both the merchant and the check writer when a counterfeit check is presented. Both sides are charged because the Federal Reserve charges high fees for returning uncollectable checks.

Musk says SpaceX, X moving HQs out of California over transgender law - Tech billionaire Elon Musk on Tuesday said he will move the headquarters for his aerospace company, SpaceX, and social media company, X, out of California, after Gov. Gavin Newsom (D)signed a bill banning school districts from requiring parents to be notified if their child decides to change their gender identity.“This is the final straw. Because of this law and the many others that preceded it, attacking both families and companies, SpaceX will now move its HQ from Hawthorne, California, to Starbase, Texas,” Musk wrote on X Tuesday.“I did make it clear to Governor Newsom about a year ago that laws of this nature would force families and companies to leave California to protect their children,” the SpaceX CEO added.He later said X, which he purchased in 2022, will move its headquarters from San Francisco to Austin, Texas.“Have had enough of dodging gangs of violent drug addicts just to get in and out of the building,” Musk wrote.The move comes one day after Newsom signed a bill into law that prevents school staff from “outing” a student to their parent or anyone else without their permission.Supporters of the bill said it is a key protection for LGBTQ students as political rhetoric surrounding gender identity in schools has become increasingly tense..Musk has faced criticism in the past for his personal posts related to the LBGTQ community, along with the content moderation changes he has made to X since purchasing the platform for $44 billion. Some civil rights groups have argued the changes have negatively impacted members of the LGBTQ community, making them more vulnerable to online harassment.Earlier this year, X updated its abuse and harassment rules to revive regulations around content that misgenders or deadnames individuals. The change came less than a year after X, under Musk’s leadership, revoked its ban on content that uses a transgender person’s name before they transitioned — known as a deadname — or purposefully used the wrong gender for someone.

Newsom to Musk after HQs move announcement: ‘You bent the knee’ -California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) took to social media to criticize Elon Musk’s decision to move his aerospace company, SpaceX, and social media company, X, out of the state after Newsom signed a law related to transgender children.“You bent the knee,” Newsom posted on X, along with a screenshot of a 2022 post from former President Trump criticizing the billionaire.Earlier Tuesday, Musk said Newsom signing a bill that bans school districts from requiring parents to be notified if their child decides to change their gender identity was “the final straw.”“Because of this law and the many others that preceded it, attacking both families and companies, SpaceX will now move its HQ from Hawthorne, California, to Starbase, Texas,” Musk wrote on X.The Tesla CEO said he made it clear to Newsom “about a year ago that laws of this nature” would make people leave California. He also added that X would move its headquarters from San Francisco to Austin, Texas.In his post, which Newsom’s office confirmed to be a response to Musk’s announcement, he included Trump’s post about the tech billionaire where the former president suggested he was the reason for Musk’s successes.“When Elon Musk came to the White House asking me for help on all of his many subsidized projects, whether it’s electric cars that don’t drive long enough, driverless cars that crash, or rocketships to nowhere, without which subsidies he’d be worthless, and telling me how he was a big Trump fan and Republican, I could have said, ‘drop to your knees and beg,’ and he would have done it,” Trump said.Musk recently formally endorsed Trump after Saturday’s assassination attempt and recently donated to the America PAC. As the world’s richest person, Musk said he plans to give the former president around $45 million a month.

Regulators finalize guidelines for challenging property appraisals -- Federal regulators finalized guidance on Thursday for how banks and other lenders should approach home appraisal do-overs. The guidelines outline a variety of circumstances that might trigger a so-called reconsideration of value, or ROV, process, including discrimination on the grounds of race, color, religion, sex, disability, familial status or national origin. Valuations are a key risk management tool for lenders, as they determine the collateral value for mortgages and other loans. Consumers have long been able to challenge valuations, but the guidance adopted by the Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and National Credit Union Administration specifies when and why an ROV is appropriate. Regulators received 45 comment letters about their proposal last summer, with feedback coming in from banking organizations, real estate companies, trade associations, nonprofits, loan officers and appraisers, among others. The Appraisal Foundation — the Washington, D.C.-based entity that writes the standards and qualification requirements for appraisers throughout the country — also weighed in.The final framework is largely the same as what the agencies' proposed last year, though with some notable clarifications. One of the biggest addendums notes that the scope of the framework is "limited to real estate-related financial transactions that are secured by a single one-to-four family residential property." Some commenters asked for more specific guidance around certain issues that the agencies opted not to weigh in on. These include questions about who should bear the cost of a second appraisal, whether or not remarks from an appraiser should be included in an ROV and timelines for reconsideration requests. The agencies noted that there was no "one-size-fits-all" solution to these issues, so it left them up to individual institutions to decide for themselves. Regulators also addressed concerns raised about the impact of more abundant ROV requests on the independence of appraisers. The assumption by some in and around the profession is that being able to have their reports challenged more easily will make appraisers more likely to give higher valuations. But the agencies did not amend the guidelines to address these concerns. "The agencies considered the comments received on appraiser independence and reiterate that institutions are responsible for maintaining standards of independence for all real estate lending activity, including ROVs, as required by the agencies' appraisal regulations and, as applicable, [the Appraisal Foundation's rule book]," the guidance notes.

Automated valuation model final rule published by 6 regulators -A final rule governing the use of automated valuation models in mortgage lending has now been published by a group of six federal regulators, the last step in the process of putting it into effect.The regulations were first proposed for public comment in June 2023 and finalized last month. The six agencies involved are Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and the National Credit Union Administration.Mortgage market participants will be required to "adopt policies, practices, procedures, and control systems designed to: ensure a high level of confidence in estimates; protect against data manipulation; seek to avoid conflicts of interest; require random sample testing and reviews; and comply with nondiscrimination laws," a joint press release said.AVM usage has increased due to advances in database and modeling technology, the regulators said. They are also seen as helping to relieve a long-term shortage of appraisers.Last week, the Department of Housing and Urban Development entered into a settlement with the Appraisal Foundation resolving a complaint "alleging discriminatory barriers preventing qualified Black people and other persons of color from entering the appraisal profession on the basis of race in violation of the Fair Housing Act."A cause of the shortage, as well as driving this complaint, is the experience requirement, where a friend or family member who is already a licensed appraiser has to be willing to supervise as the applicant gains on-the-job experience.In its board memo on the proposed final rule, Federal Reserve Board staff said four of the five quality control points raised in the rule were required by statute. The final point, nondiscrimination, addresses concerns for the potential of bias in modeling."Existing nondiscrimination laws already apply to an institution's use of AVMs; the nondiscrimination factor would heighten awareness among lenders to this requirement and impose an independent requirement for institutions to establish policies, practices, procedures, and systems to ensure compliance with nondiscrimination laws," the staff memo said.

A Fed interest rate cut won’t send mortgage rates plummeting - Everyone is waiting for mortgage rates to fall; some might have even marked their calendars for the anxiously awaited, possible interest rate cut in September. For borrowers, it would be much-needed relief after the Federal Reserve’s two-year battle with scorching inflation. But an interest rate cut might not translate into immediately lower mortgage rates, according to one industry watcher. “The bond market is already pricing in rate cuts, so the simple act of the Fed cutting is not necessarily going to have a direct impact on mortgage rates,” Alan Ratner, managing director for housing research firm Zelman & Associates, said in an interview with CNBC yesterday. “Right now, the bond market is already pricing in that outlook, so we’ll see how far rates actually move lower, but our view is it’s going to be a fairly gradual decline over the next several years, as opposed to a step function lower.” The firm’s chief executive is none other than Ivy Zelman, dubbed “Poison Ivy” for calling the 2008 housing bust, and like her colleagues, she’s shared a less optimistic view of the housing world, particularly when it comes to sales. Last fall she noted that “existing home sales are… probably at the lowest since the [great financial crisis,]” and predicted that they would remain at “extremely depressed levels” through 2025. They are still sluggish, dipping 0.7% in May from the prior month and 2.8% from a year ago; we’ll see if June was any different when the data is released next week.But inventory is better, a sign that the lock-in effect, which kept sellers on the sidelines, could be easing. Redfin recently reported that the total number of listings is near its highest point in close to four years, at 977,230.And of course, mortgage rates have dropped. The average 30-year fixed daily mortgage rate is 6.81% and the weekly one is 6.77%. The decline was mostly off the back of a cool inflation report, but there is more to it, and it might not mean they’ll continue to fall. “What the market is showing right now, though, is a lot of optimism that the tamer inflation metrics are going to translate to much lower mortgage rates in the back half of the year and kind of solve that affordability problem,” Ratner said. “And that might be a little bit of an optimistic view.”If that is the case, it’s not great for anyone who wants to buy a home; they’re dealing with substantially higher home prices and mortgage rates than before the pandemic and incomes that haven’t necessarily kept up. So demand has cooled off, despite people needing homes. “We are concerned about the direction of the economy and the consumer,” Ratner said, “and right now, if we can orchestrate a soft landing and lower rate environment, that is the goldilocks scenario for housing, but it’s definitely threading a needle.” Lower mortgage rates wouldn’t matter much if the economy were to slow or fall into a recession, he noted. Still, we’re not too far off from what Compass’ chief executive, Robert Reffkin, called themagic mortgage rate: anything below 6%, he suggested, would bring buyers back to the market. Lawrence Yun, the National Association of Realtors’ chief economist, also recently said 6% would be the “new normal.” Even with interest rate cuts from the Fed, Yun doesn’t anticipate mortgage rates will fall to 5%, let alone anywhere near the historical lows throughout the pandemic.

Air conditioning isn't guaranteed for renters. That needs to change. - As this summer has already made clear, extreme heat is here, and it’s poised to get worse in the coming years. Due to soaring temperatures, more and more people are also at risk for severe health concerns that come with them, including heat stroke, cardiovascular problems, and respiratory issues.That’s particularly true for already-vulnerable groups including elderly people, those who are pregnant, and those with preexisting conditions like heart disease or diabetes.In Texas — a state that often sees some of the hottest temperatures in the country — extreme heat killed more than 330 people in 2023, setting a new record. More recently, millions of people in cities like Houston have had to deal with a massive heat wave while navigating power outages caused by Hurricane Beryl. Despite the growing toll, there’s shockingly little regulation around protecting people from the effects of heat. It’s a stark contrast to how policies tend to treat the extreme cold. And while extreme cold continues to be deadlier than extreme heat, as heat waves become more dangerous, the gap between the two is likely to shrink. For example, very few states have laws that require landlords to provide air conditioning for their renters. Conversely, most states have policies that mandate the provision of heat in the winter. But even navigating what is and isn’t required around extreme heat is difficult. A comprehensive state-by-state cooling policy resource doesn’t yet exist, which speaks to the sparse landscape of regulations considering heat exposure. That’s largely due to policymakers lagging behind climate change, the opposition from landlord groups to such requirements, and the hefty cost of both energy bills and equipment that would actually address the problem. There are questions, too, over who would bear those costs, including concerns that mandates for air conditioning would simply fall on tenants in the form of higher rents. The need for adequate cooling will only become more pressing, though. And the growing prevalence of heat waves — which are getting stronger, longer, and more frequent — underscores the fact that air conditioning is no longer a luxury but a necessity and that the lack of it in people’s homes could prove fatal. Cooling policies for rental properties vary state by state, often city by city. There’s no federal law or regulation governing them, and many states don’t have them either. Although some cities like Dallas have approved ordinances mandating that landlords provide air conditioning, for instance, Texas doesn’t offer the same protectionsstatewide. “Unlike heat, cooling is really not incorporated into habitability standards or enforced in increasingly hot summers,” says Ruthy Gourevitch, a housing policy manager at the Climate and Community Project. Some state policies, like those in California and New York, require landlords to maintain air conditioning that’s already in a unit, but they don’t mandate that they provide AC in the first place. Most states have experienced scorching heat waves in recent years yet many still have no state law on the books to require cooling systems. A similar dynamic is evident when it comes to federal energy assistance programs, which often dedicate most of their funds to assisting tenants in the winter to cover heating costs. About 80 percent of the funds allocated to the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP) are doled out in the winter, while far less is distributed in the summer, says Mark Wolfe, executive director of the National Energy Assistance Directors Association. That’s largely a byproduct of the underfunding of the program, with much of the money running out after it’s been used in the winter, Wolfe says. As Rebecca Leber previously reported for Vox, this same trend holds true when utility companies shut off power, something they do when a customer misses their payments.Many states will offer protections to customers in these situations during the cold months of winter. Not so with the increasingly fierce, hot months of summer. According to Vox’s previous reporting, 41 states offer customer protections from utility shut-offs during the extreme cold if they fail to pay a bill, while just 18 states offer the same for extreme heat.

MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey -- From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey - Mortgage applications increased 3.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending July 12, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 3.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 30 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 15 percent from the previous week and was 37 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 22 percent compared with the previous week and was 14 percent lower than the same week one year ago. “Mortgage rates declined last week, as recent signs of cooling inflation and the increased likelihood of Fed rate cuts later this year pulled them lower. The 30-year fixed rate declined to 6.87 percent, the lowest rate since March 2024,” . “Application activity was up 4 percent, driven by a 15 percent jump in refinances to the highest level since August 2022. While FHA and VA refinance applications accounted for a significant share of the increase, these are likely recently originated loans with even higher than current offered rates..” ... The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) decreased to 6.87 percent from 7.00 percent, with points decreasing to 0.57 from 0.60 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index. According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 14% year-over-year unadjusted. Purchase application activity is up slightly from the lows in late October 2023, but still below the lowest levels during the housing bust. The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index declined sharply in 2022, and mostly flat lined since then with some increase recently.

Housing July 15th Weekly Update: Inventory down 0.2% Week-over-week, Up 38.1% Year-over-year Inventory growth paused this week, likely due to the July 4th holiday weekend. Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.2% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 31.9% from the February seasonal bottom.This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of July 12th, inventory was at 651 thousand (7-day average), compared to 653 thousand the prior week. Inventory is still far below pre-pandemic levels. The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Note that inventory is up 75% from the record low for the same week in 2021, but still well below normal levels. Inventory was up 38.1% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 40.0%), and down 31.5% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 31.2%). Inventory should be above 2020 levels for the same week next week. Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is slowly closing. Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.

Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 35.8% YoY -- On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For June, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 36.7% YoY, but still down 32.4% compared to April 2017 to 2019 levels. Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 35.8% YoY. Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending July 13, 2024: Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 35.8% above year-ago levels. For the 36th week in a row, the number of for-sale homes grew compared with one year ago. This past week, the inventory of homes for sale grew by 35.8% compared with last year, slightly higher than the rate observed in the previous week. Despite nearly 8 months of building inventory, buyers still see more than 30% fewer homes for sale compared with pre-pandemic. New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were up this week by 8.8% from one year ago. This week marks 14 out of the past 15 weeks with new listings growth and at 8.8% year-over-year it is slightly above the 2024 weekly average of 8.7%. However, the share of active listings comprising new listings fell from the same last year by just under a percentage point. While newly listed homes increased by 6.3% annually in June, this rate is roughly half of what it was two months ago. Broadly speaking, the number of new homes for sale remains historically low and is still below the 2017-2022 levels, even with recent improvements. Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. Inventory was up year-over-year for the 36th consecutive week. However, inventory is still historically low.New listings remain below typical pre-pandemic levels.

Housing Starts Increased to 1.353 million Annual Rate in June -- From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Privately-owned housing starts in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,353,000. This is 3.0 percent above the revised May estimate of 1,314,000, but is 4.4 percent below the June 2023 rate of 1,415,000. Single-family housing starts in June were at a rate of 980,000; this is 2.2 percent below the revised May figure of 1,002,000. The June rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 360,000. Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,446,000. This is 3.4 percent above the revised May rate of 1,399,000, but is 3.1 percent below the June 2023 rate of 1,493,000. Single-family authorizations in June were at a rate of 934,000; this is 2.3 percent below the revised May figure of 956,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 460,000 in June. The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000. Multi-family starts (blue, 2+ units) increased in June compared to May. Multi-family starts were down 23.1% year-over-year. Single-family starts (red) decreased in June and were up 5.4% year-over-year. The second graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968. This shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then the eventual recovery - and the recent collapse and recovery in single-family starts. Total housing starts in June were above expectations, and starts in April and May were revised up.

Single Family Starts Up Year-over-year in June; Multi-Family Starts Down 23% YoY -- Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Single Family Starts Up Year-over-year in June; Multi-Family Starts Down 23% YoY A brief excerpt: Total housing starts in June were above expectations and starts in April and May were revised up. The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2023 (blue) and 2024 (red). Total starts were down 4.4% in June compared to June 2023. The YoY decline in total starts was due to the sharp YoY decrease in multi-family starts. Single family starts have been up YoY for 12 consecutive months. There is much more in the article.

NAHB: Builder Confidence Declined in July --- The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 42, down from 43 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. From the NAHB: High Mortgage Rates Continue to Hold Back Builder Confidence: Mortgage rates that averaged 6.92% in June per Freddie Mac, along with elevated rates for construction and development loans, continue to put a damper on builder sentiment. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 42 in July, down one point from June, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. This is the lowest reading since December 2023. “While buyers appear to be waiting for lower interest rates, the six-month sales expectation for builders moved higher, indicating that builders expect mortgage rates to edge lower later this year as inflation data are showing signs of easing,” “Though inflation is still above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%, it appears to be back on a cooling trend. NAHB is forecasting Fed rate reductions to begin at the end of this year, and this action will lower interest rates for home buyers, builders and developers,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “And while home inventory is increasing, total market inventory remains lean at a 4.4 months’ supply, indicating a long-run need for more home construction.” The July HMI survey also revealed that 31% of builders cut home prices to bolster sales in July, above the June rate of 29%. However, the average price reduction in July held steady at 6% for the 13th straight month. Meanwhile, the use of sales incentives held steady at 61% in July, the same reading as June. ... The HMI index charting current sales conditions in July fell one point to 47 and the gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers also declined by a single-point to 27. The component measuring sales expectations in the next six months increased one point to 48. Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast fell six points to 56, the Midwest dropped four points to 43, the South decreased two points to 44 and the West posted a four-point decline to 37.. This graph shows the NAHB index since Jan 1985. This was slightly below the consensus forecast.

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 0.9% Year-over-year - From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 6 July - Due to the Fourth of July, the U.S. hotel industry reported lower performance results from the previous week and mixed comparisons year over year, according to CoStar’s latest data through 6 July. ...
30 June through 6 July 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023):
• Occupancy: 61.3% (-0.9%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$157.27 (+0.5%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$96.35 (-0.4%)
The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.
The red line is for 2024, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2023. Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking just behind last year and is below the median rate for the period 2000 through 2023 (Blue). The 4-week average of the occupancy rate will increase seasonally due to summer recreational travel.

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 3.7% Year-over-year - From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 13 July --The U.S. hotel industry reported higher performance results than the previous week but lower comparisons year over year, according to CoStar’s latest data through 13 July. ... 7-13 July 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023):
• Occupancy: 69.2% (-3.7%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$158.21 (-1.5%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$109.51 (-5.2%)
The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. The red line is for 2024, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2023. Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking just behind last year and is below the median rate for the period 2000 through 2023 (Blue).The 4-week average of the occupancy rate will increase seasonally due to summer recreational travel. So far, the summer leisure travel season has disappointed.

Credit Card Debt and Interest Rates -- WalletHub analyzed Federal Reserve data released today and found that credit card debt hit a new record high of $1.27 trillion in May 2024, which is 4% higher than last year after adjusting for inflation.With the average credit card APR now even higher than last year, WalletHub projects that credit card debt will increase by $120+ billion by the end of 2024. You can find other takeaways from WalletHub’s latest Credit Card Debt Survey below.

• Summer Debt Lingers: 46% of Americans are still paying down their credit card balance from last summer.
• Forecast Calls for Higher Balances: Nearly 1 in 3 people say they will have more credit card debt by the end of 2024.
• Calls for Legislative Relief: Nearly 2 in 3 people think credit card interest rates above 23% should be illegal (the average interest rate is currently 22.76%).
• Wasting Money on Interest: 45% of Americans charge everyday purchases to credit cards they carry debt on. This is a fundamental mistake, as they end up paying interest on purchases they can afford to pay in full.
• Debt-Induced Stress: Nearly 1 in 4 Americans are very stressed about their credit card debt.
• Sights Set on Getting Debt-Free: 4 in 5 people say paying their credit card debt is a top priority.
• Human Experts Only: Nearly 3 in 5 people don’t trust AI for information about paying off credit card debt.

Auto Insider Warns More Americans Fall Behind On Car Payments As Repos Soar 23% -- The delayed day of reckoning has arrived for millions of Americans who purchased vehicles with absurdly high monthly payments they no longer can afford. New data shows auto repossessions surged in the first half of the year, driven by elevated inflation and high interest rates, resulting in increased consumer distress (read: here & here) as the labor market slows. Before we delve into the data from Cox Automotive, let's revisit several of our reports from mid-2022, showing how we have been diligently tracking the perfect storm brewing for auto repossessions:

• July 2022: Are We Headed For An "Auto Loan Crisis" As Delinquencies Begin To Rise?
• December 2022: Perfect Storm Arrives: "Massive Wave" Of Car Repossessions And Loan Defaults To Trigger Auto Market Disaster, Cripple US Economy
• January 2023: "It's The Perfect Storm": More Americans Can't Afford Their Car Payments Than During The Peak Of Financial Crisis
• November 2023: Americans Panic Search "Give Car Back" As Subprime Auto Loan Delinquency Erupts
• February 2024: "Garbage Deals": Dealership Puts Customers In Cars With $3,000 Monthly Payments

Two years later, the deterioration has accelerated. Cox data shows repos jumped 23% in the first six months of this year compared with the same period in 2023. Repos started moving higher last year and have now exceeded pre-Covid levels, up 14% compared to the first half of 2019.

Retail Sales Unchanged in June -- On a monthly basis, retail sales were "virtually unchanged" from May to June (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 2.3 percent from June 2023. From the Census Bureau report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $704.3 billion, virtually unchanged from the previous month, but up 2.3 percent above June 2023. ... The April 2024 to May 2024 percent change was revised from up 0.1 percent to up 0.3 percent.. This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). Retail sales ex-gasoline were up 0.2% in June. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993. Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 2.7% on a YoY basis. The change in sales in June was at expectations, and sales in April and May were revised up.

Retail Sales Declined and a Slight Downtrend - Retail sales declined -0.1% in June, but since consumer inflation also declined -0.1%, real retail sales were unchanged for the month. There was an upward revision to May which helped out the comparisons slightly, but for the entire first half of this year real retail sales have been treading water at a level below last year. The below graph is normed to 100 as of right before the pandemic, and shows the similar measure of real personal consumption of goods (light blue) as well: There’s been a general slight downtrend in real retail sales ever since the burst of pandemic stimulus spending in early 2021, that fortunately has not been confirmed by the broader measure of real personal spending on goods. On the other hand, real personal consumption of goods has also been lower all this year so far from its peak last December. We are also down -0.7% YoY: Although I won’t bother with the historical graph this time around, I’ve note previously In the entire history of real retail sales going back 75 years, much more often than not such downturns foreshadowed a recession within half a year. Last month I wrote that “the negative YoY retail sales for four of the first five months of this year [ ] is now a real concern, although it has not been confirmed by the similar metric of real personal spending on goods.” I also said that “Since we are now over three years past the last pandemic stimulus, I suspect real retail sales are also giving a more accurate signal for employment (red in the graph below) in the months ahead, as they did for decades before the pandemic [Here’s the updated graph for this month]: “Consumption has historically led employment, and this suggests weaker monthly employment reports in the months ahead.” It’s worth noting that in the graph above, real personal spending on goos is also lower YoY than payroll employment. It’s also worth recalling that there is good reason to believe that the payroll employment gains of 225,000-300,000 one year ago are likely to be revised significantly lower in view of the poor QCEW comprehensive census for the last two quarters of 2023. My concluding remark last month was that, especially in view of the relatively poor numbers since the start of this year, real retail sales had to be regarded as raising a caution flag for the economy. That is if anything even more true this month, with an additional month of data, especially where an important component of the economically weighted ISM indexes released at the beginning of this month showed contraction in June. The yellow flag is up. We’ll get important information about both the manufacturing and construction sectors tomorrow.

Retail Sales Excl. Autos & Gasoline Jump by Most in 18 Months & Pushed Up Atlanta Fed GDPNow to 2.5% from 2.0% Last Week - Wolf Richter - Retail sales without gasoline and auto sales jumped by 0.8% in June from May, seasonally adjusted, the biggest increase since January 2023, spread among many categories of retailers, including a massive increase in ecommerce sales. Year-over-year, they rose 3.8%. This month-to-month jump caused the Atlanta Fed to raise its GDPNow forecast for Q2 GDP growth to 2.5% today, from 2.0% last week. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast for Q2 real GDP was updated today with the data from June retail sales, which caused its real GDP forecast to jump to 2.5% today, from 2.0% last week. For the US, 2.5% real GDP growth is well above the longer-run average of just under 2%. GDPNow’s measure for real consumer spending growth rose to 2.1% from 1.6%. Sales at dealers of new and used motor vehicles and at parts stores are the largest category in retail sales, accounting for 19% of total retail sales. Sales of 15,000 of these auto dealers got hit when the ransomware attack on CDK’s cloud-based dealer management system took down their computers on June 19 for the rest of the month, which reduced their ability to process sales of vehicles and parts in June, which caused the biggest auto dealers to warn about its impact on Q2 revenues and earnings, and dented vehicle unit-sales in June. Those sales that didn’t get processed in June will get processed in July. In addition, dollar-sales at auto dealers (19% of total retail) and gas stations (7.7% of total retail) experienced large price drops in June, with used vehicle prices in a historic downward spiral that has now unwound 60% of the crazy price spike in 2021 and 2022. Retail sales are not adjusted for price changes. The lower prices lowered the dollar-sales, not the unit sales. But the lower prices (deflation) of motor vehicles and gasoline boost consumer spending in “real” terms, adjusted for deflation in those items, opposite of what happened back when inflation in those items was hot and reduced “real” consumer spending on those items. Total Retail sales were unchanged in June from May, at $704 billion, seasonally adjusted, and were up 2.3% year-over-year, despite the ransomware hack and the widespread price declines in goods, that included motor vehicles, electronics, furniture, and many other goods. New and used vehicle dealers and parts stores (19% of total retail). Note the 2% month-to-month drop in June, mostly due to 15,000 dealers not being able to process sales after the CDK hack. The relatively flat sales for the past 18 months are due to dropping prices. The number of vehicles sold, so unit sales have been up year-over-year all year long, both in new and used vehicles:

LA Port Traffic Increased Year-over-year in June - Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic. The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container). To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12-month average. On a rolling 12-month basis, inbound traffic increased 1.7% in June compared to the rolling 12 months ending in May. Outbound traffic increased 0.7% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month. The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports). Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday, and then decline sharply and bottom in the Winter depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year. Imports were up 20% YoY in June, and exports were up 9% YoY. In general, it appears port traffic is returning to the pre-pandemic patterns.

Industrial Production Increased 0.6% in June --- From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization - Industrial production rose 0.6 percent in June after advancing 0.9 percent in May. For the second quarter as a whole, industrial production increased at an annual rate of 4.3 percent. Manufacturing output moved up 0.4 percent in June and rose 3.4 percent (annual rate) in the second quarter. In June, the indexes for mining and utilities posted gains of 0.3 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively. At 104 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in June was 1.6 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization moved up to 78.8 percent in June, a rate that is 0.9 percentage point below its long-run (1972–2023) average. This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and above the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). Capacity utilization at 78.8% is 0.9% below the average from 1972 to 2022. This was above consensus expectations. The second graph shows industrial production since 1967. Industrial production increased to 104.0. This is above the pre-pandemic level. Industrial production was above consensus expectations.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 243,000 - The DOL reported: In the week ending July 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 243,000, an increase of 20,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 222,000 to 223,000. The 4-week moving average was 234,750, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 233,500 to 233,750. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 234,750. The previous week was revised up. Weekly claims were higher than the consensus forecast.

USPS worker dies in Fayetteville, North Carolina after shift in mail truck on 95-degree day -- US postal worker Wednesday “Wendy” Johnson died on June 6 after working for hours in the back of a mail truck in Fayetteville, North Carolina in record temperatures. Local news reports relate that Johnson was found unresponsive in a restroom 15 minutes after returning to the post office. She later died at Cape Fear Valley Hospital. She was 51-years old and a 20-year veteran of the US postal service. The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) is investigating Johnson’s death as heat related. This June was the second hottest on record since 1887 by half of a degree with an average daily temperature of 80.9 degrees, the result of the steady upward trend of hotter and longer heat waves since 1961. OSHA guidelines warn that when the Heat Index (HI) reaches 80 degrees Fahrenheit (27°C) or higher, there is a significant increase in serious heat-related illnesses and injuries among workers, particularly in workplaces where employees are engaged in strenuous activities such as shifting and delivering packages in the back of a mail truck. As the HI climbs to 95 degrees and beyond, the risks rise further. While the temperature on June 6 was 95 degrees Fahrenheit, the temperature in the back of the mail truck in which Johnson was riding was 102 degrees, according to texts the worker sent to her family that day. Heat is the second-leading cause of injury to USPS workers, comprising 14 percent of all on-the-job injuries in the Postal Service. Between 2015 and 2023, there have been 160 reports of heat-related injury by postal workers, according to OSHA. Between 2012 and 2023, seven USPS workers died due to heat while on the job. Johnson’s death occurred two weeks short of the one year anniversary of the death of veteran Dallas, Texas mail carrier Eugene Gates Jr. of heat stroke. Gates died after having received a disciplinary letter indicating that an investigation had revealed Gates was “in violation of postal rules and regulations” determined by the TIAREAP surveillance system, which tracks every minute of a letter carrier’s route, including pauses for water and cool air which can be life saving when working in high temperatures. It was 110 degrees in Dallas the day Gates died; his internal body temperature at the time of death was recorded as 104 degrees. Both workers’ deaths are the result of systemic work speedup imposed on both city and rural carriers. New evaluation systems for each, TIAREAP for city carriers and RRECS for rural carriers, were implemented through agreements between the USPS and the union bureaucracies in the past two years, and have had disastrous impacts on carriers’ wages and working conditions.

At RNC, Republicans make their case for education overhaul - Republicans are looking to take a big swing at education if former President Trump returns to the White House. Rep. Byron Donalds (Fla.) helped kick off the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee this week by singing the praises of school choice, saying the Biden administration is “in the pocket of the far-left teachers unions, they trap poor kids like me in failing schools with no way out.” The official GOP platform emphasizes cutting funding to schools teaching about critical race theory, keeping transgender girls out of women’s sports and deporting “pro-Hamas radicals” from college campuses, among other conservative priorities. “The platform itself this year is very different from previous platforms. The previous platforms were much longer, much more detailed when it came to policy, and, so, even on some of the other education areas it has language that is pointing in the right direction, but without a lot of details,” said Jason Bedrick, a research fellow at the Center for Education Policy at The Heritage Foundation. “So, it’s pointing towards things like parental rights, but what exactly does that mean? How exactly is the party going to implement them? This document is not particularly clear.”Republicans are planning to make big changes after four years of a Democratic presidency that has blocked their efforts regarding parental rights and what they think should be taught in schools. “Republicans offer a plan to cultivate great K-12 schools, ensure safe learning environments free from political meddling, and restore Parental Rights. We commit to an Education System that empowers students, supports families, and promotes American Values. Our Education System must prepare students for successful lives and well-paying jobs,” reads the introduction section of the GOP platform’s education section. Parental rights became an increasingly popular talking point during the COVID-19 pandemic as schools were shut down and academic scores dropped. House Republicans passed a national Parental Bill of Rights back in 2023, but it didn’t move in the Democratic Senate and was unlikely to be signed by President Biden. Other Republican issues at the national level that GOP states have fought in their legislatures include efforts against critical race theory and teaching gender identity and sexual orientation in schools. Eighteen states have already banned critical race theory in K-12 classrooms, with others looking to join in.Four Republican states also sued the Biden administration for including sexual orientation and gender identity in the discrimination aspects of Title IX.“We believe schools should educate, not indoctrinate,” Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) said at the convention on Tuesday. “We stand for parents rights, including universal school choice.” The Republican platform is also signaling support as red states aim to get more religion into classrooms. Louisiana is requiring every classroom to have a poster of the Ten Commandments, while Oklahoma is looking to incorporate the Bible into civics and history lessons. “Republicans will reinstate the 1776 Commission, promote Fair and Patriotic Civics Education, and veto efforts to nationalize Civics Education. We will support schools that teach America’s Founding Principles and Western Civilization” the GOP platform says.

Momentum grows for cell phone bans in schools after moves in Virginia, LA, NYC --Cell phone bans for schools are surging across the country as educators and state lawmakers look to tackle learning loss and reduce distractions, but within the movement there are significant divisions. New York City, Los Angeles and the state of Virginia have all moved to forbid student phones from classrooms in recent weeks, despite some parental backlash on the measures. Parents fear not being able to reach their children during a school shooting or other emergency, while the pesky problem of how to actually keep technology out of young hands poses a practical challenge.“I think we have good science to show that banning cell phones in classrooms during class time is really important,” said Mitch Prinstein, chief science office for the American Psychological Association. “We know that because there’s no such thing as multitasking. We all are just engaging in task-shifting back and forth, and kids’ brains are not fully developed enough to be able to task-shift as well as adults,” Prinstein added. “So it’s really important for academic achievement that we have those cell phones out of the classroom.” Virginia is the latest to take action on phones in school after Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) directed the state’s Department of Education to draft guidance for schools on creating policies “that establish the age-appropriate restriction or elimination of cell phone use during instructional time.” “This essential action will promote a healthier and more focused educational environment where every child is free to learn. Creating cell phone and social media-free educational environments in Virginia’s K-12 education system will benefit students, parents, and educators,” Youngkin said last week. Other major metropolitan areas serving hundreds of thousands of students have also jumped on the wagon to create phone-free environments. New York City Public Schools is looking into policies on getting rid of phones, and the Los Angeles school board approved a policy to restrict the devices, although the details of how America’s two biggest cities will get the job done have not been finalized. Some are advocating for students not to have their phones at all throughout the school day. Sabine Polak, co-founder of Phone-Free Schools Movement, said a ban on phones only during class puts the burden on teachers to police classrooms, and that students are less likely to socialize face-to-face during lunch or other breaks if they have access to screens. Class-only bans also leave the phones available for illicit activities such as recording and taking photos, she said. A recent survey by Pew Research Center found 72 percent of high school teachers believe phones are a major distraction to students, though only 33 percent of middle school teachers and 6 percent of elementary educators feel the same way. All-day bans have been undertaken by multiple school districts, with Renesha Parks, chief wellness officer at Richmond Public Schools in Virginia, previously telling The Hill her district invested in pouches designed for students to put their phones in when they arrive and which cannot be opened until the end of the day. But others say the focus should be on class time, since it’s the most important for student focus. While 82 percent of K-12 teachers say their school has a cell-phone policy, according to the June Pew Research survey, 30 percent of those educators say it is hard to enforce them. Classroom-only bans would also help parents who fear not having access to their children during an emergency event, though advocates of cell phone bans argue such access could in fact increase the danger.“As far as like big emergencies […] your child is more unsafe if they have their phone on them when there’s an emergency because their attention is distracted. They are not paying attention when their teachers are giving guidance on what they’re supposed to be doing because they are too worried about trying to text friends or family to let them know things are OK,” said Mileva Repasky, co-founder of Phone-Free Schools movement. As for students, Pew found 70 percent of 13- to 17-year-olds say there are more benefits than harms to phones, and 45 percent believe phones make it easier to do better in school.

Harvard appoints former Pentagon general counsel and Northrop Grumman executive as vice president -- Harvard Interim President Alan M. Garber announced on July 10 that Jennifer M. O’Connor will serve as the university’s vice president and general counsel starting July 29. O’Connor was the US Department of Defense general counsel in the final months of the Obama administration, from mid-2016 to January 2017. She had held legal and advisory roles in the Obama administration before serving as the Pentagon’s top lawyer. In May 2017, O’Connor joined major defense contractor Northrop Grumman, serving as vice president of technology and information law and policy, a role she helped create in the company. Northrop Grumman has operations and interests worldwide, including in the Middle East, and is deeply implicated in the Israeli genocide in Gaza. Harvard Out of Occupied Palestine and the Palestine Solidarity Committee, two groups that helped organize the encampment at Harvard in May, condemned the selection of O’Connor, citing her role at Northrop Grumman and the Pentagon. O’Connor’s appointment is nothing short of a provocation and marks another step in an offensive against democratic rights on campus which has been organized by an alliance between right-wing billionaire donors, fascistic Republicans, the Biden White House, the Democratic Party and the military-intelligence apparatus. Its fundamental aim has been to directly subordinate higher education to the demands and interests of US imperialism and its war machine. From the beginning of the protests against the Gaza genocide, Harvard, like other prestigious universities, including the University of Pennsylvania (UPenn) and Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), has been a central site of a McCarthyite witch-hunt by these forces. In December 2023 UPenn President Liz Magill, along with Harvard University President Claudine Gay and MIT President Sally Kornbluth, was subjected to demagogic questioning spearheaded by antisemitic, far-right Republican Elise Stefanik over Gay’s and Kornbluth’s alleged failures to address the supposed wave of antisemitism sweeping across US college campuses, including their own. Magill was forced to resign immediately following the hearings, and Harvard’s Claudine Gay was forced out January 2, 2024. The forced resignation of Gay further emboldened the right-wing offensive at Harvard. The House Committee on Education and the Workforce, chaired by far-right Republican Virginia Foxx, has demanded Harvard hand over reams of information on “antisemitism” at the university, going back to 2021. In April, amid ongoing political threats from Washington and subpoenas from Congress, Harvard Interim President Garber announced the creation of an “Institutional Voice Working Group” and an “Open Inquiry and Constructive Dialogue Working Group.” The result was a statement that Harvard will “refrain from controversial statements about public policy issues,” as reported in the Harvard Crimson. The “neutrality policy” is aimed at suppressing opposition among students to the Israeli genocide against the Palestinian people and demands that Harvard divest from Israel, which led to a 20-day encampment in Harvard Yard. Garber wrote of O’Connor in a message, “Over the course of her career, she has gained extensive experience within large and complex organizations that are subject to close public scrutiny,” stating that she will be the university’s “chief legal strategist.” A Boston Globe article states, “Interim Harvard president Alan Garber said O’Connor’s experience in government and the private sector positioned her well to contend with the types of pressure the university now faces.” It notes that she has not previously worked in higher education. O’Connor’s credentials to serve as Harvard’s “chief legal strategist” are a combination of her experience providing legal services for the Department of Defense and her apparent seamless transition to Northrop Grumman—a company guilty of war crimes against Palestinian civilians, the US militarization of the US-Mexico border and involvement in mass biometric surveillance. So much for neutrality!

Education Department freezes student loan payments for 8M borrowers - The Education Department will suspend student loan payments and interest for around 8 million borrowers after a Thursday court order blocked the Biden administration’s latest repayment program. Agency officials said they would freeze the loans of borrowers enrolled in the program, known as SAVE, until appeals finish winding through the courts. The plan lowers monthly payments for almost all enrolled and offers loan forgiveness for certain long-time borrowers. The order further upends President Joe Biden’s promise to tackle high loan payments for students weighed down by debt.“It’s shameful that politically motivated lawsuits waged by Republican elected officials are once again standing in the way of lower payments for millions of borrowers,” U.S. Secretary of Education Miguel Cardona said in a statement. He warned the order would have “devastating consequences for millions of student loan borrowers crushed by unaffordable monthly payments if it remains in effect.”Federal district judges in Kansas and Missouri blocked key provisions of the plan in June. But a federal appeals court put that decision on hold in July and allowed the Biden administration to move ahead with its lower monthly payments. Thursday’s unsigned order, from the 8th Circuit Court of Appeals, completely blocks the program for an unclear length of time. Critics argue the plan amounts to government overreach and unfairly burdens taxpayers.“The chaos and destruction this administration is inflicting on the nation’s student loan system is unprecedented,” House Education and Workforce Committee Chair Virginia Foxx (R-N.C.) said. “Is it hubris, ignorance, or indifference that encourages the Biden administration to move forward with an illegal agenda that has dangerous repercussions?”This isn’t the first time the Education Department froze payments because of lawsuits. Officials paused about 3 million borrower payments in June after a federal judge in Kansas blocked the administration from reducing them, a part of the plan set to take effect in July. An appeals court later reversed the decision. But the department has paused those borrowers’ payments again, along with others in the program. Officials have not yet said when the freeze will take effect.Mike Pierce, the executive director and co-founder of the Student Borrower Protection Center said the department had few other options. “It’s the only way you can be sure you’re not violating this court order,” he said.

States Set Minimum Staffing Levels for Nursing Homes. Residents Suffer When Rules Are Ignored or Waived. - For hours, John Pernorio repeatedly mashed the call button at his bedside in the Heritage Hills nursing home in Rhode Island. A retired truck driver, he had injured his spine in a fall on the job decades earlier and could no longer walk. The antibiotics he was taking made him need to go to the bathroom frequently. But he could get there only if someone helped him into his wheelchair. By the time an aide finally responded, he’d been lying in soiled briefs for hours, he said. It happened time and again.Payroll records show that during his stay at Heritage Hills, daily aide staffing levels were 25% below the minimums under state law. The nursing home said it provided high-quality care to all residents. Regardless, it wasn’t in trouble with the state, because Rhode Island does not enforce its staffing rule.An acute shortage of nurses and aides in the nation’s nearly 15,000 nursing homes is at the root of many of the most disturbing shortfalls in care for the 1.2 million Americans who live in them, including many of the nation’s frailest old people.They get festering bedsores because they aren’t turned. They lie in feces because no one comes to attend to them. They have devastating falls because no one helps them get around. They are subjected to chemical and physical restraints to sedate and pacify them.California, Florida, Massachusetts, New York, and Rhode Island have sought to improve nursing home quality by mandating the highest minimum hours of care per resident among states. But an examination of records in those states revealed that putting a law on the books was no guarantee of better staffing. Instead, many nursing homes operated with fewer workers than required, often with the permission of regulators or with no consequences at all.“Just setting a number doesn’t mean anything if you’re not going to enforce it,” said Mark Miller, former president of the national organization of long-term care ombudsmen, advocates in each state who help residents resolve problems in their nursing homes. “What’s the point?”Now the Biden administration is trying to guarantee adequate staffing the same way states have, unsuccessfully, for years: with tougher standards. Federal rules issued in April are expected to require 4 out of 5 homes to boost staffing.The administration’s plan also has some of the same weaknesses that have hampered states. It relies on underfunded health inspectors for enforcement, lacks explicit penalties for violations, and offers broad exemptions for nursing homes in areas with labor shortages. And the administration isn’t providing more money for homes that can’t afford additional employees.Serious health violations have become more widespread since covid-19 swept through nursing homes, killing more than 170,000 residents and driving employees out the door.Pay remains so low — nursing assistants earn $19 an hour on average — that homes frequently lose workers to retail stores and fast-food restaurants that pay as well or better and offer jobs that are far less grueling. Average turnover in nursing homes is extraordinarily high: Federal records show half of employees leave their jobs each year.Even the most passionate nurses and aides are burning out in short-staffed homes because they are stretched too thin to provide the quality care they believe residents deserve. “It was impossible,” said Shirley Lomba, a medication aide from Providence, Rhode Island. She left her job at a nursing home that paid $18.50 an hour for one at an assisted living facility that paid $4 more per hour and involved residents with fewer needs.The mostly for-profit nursing home industry argues that staffing problems stem from low rates of reimbursement by Medicaid, the program funded by states and the federal government that covers most people in nursing homes. Yet a growing body of research and court evidence shows that owners and investors often extract hefty profits that could be used for care.Nursing home trade groups have complained about the tougher state standards and have sued to block the new federal standards, which they say are unworkable given how much trouble nursing homes already have filling jobs. “It’s a really tough business right now,” said Mark Parkinson, president and chief executive of one trade group, the American Health Care Association.And federal enforcement of those rules is still years off. Nursing homes have as long as five years to comply with the new regulations; for some, that means enforcement would fully kick in only at the tail end of a second Biden administration, if the president wins reelection. Former President Donald Trump’s campaign declined to comment on what Trump would do if elected.

Few US adults use nicotine pouches, nationally representative study finds - A new study found that the prevalence of nicotine pouch use was low in U.S. adults despite a 641% increase in sales of the products between 2019 and 2022. Researchers say the findings raise questions about who is using the millions of nicotine pouches sold in the U.S. and why. Nicotine pouches, a new commercial tobacco product, contain a crystalline powder withnicotine, flavorings (including fruit, mint or candy) and other additives. They do not cause respiratory harm and are perceived by some as an alternative to help adults who smoke tobacco quit. Nicotine pouches have recently gained attention over concerns that their flavors and trendy social media marketing campaigns are attracting youth users. However, limited data on usage among adults has been collected since the new products entered the market. Now, a study from the Keck School of Medicine of USC and the University of Nebraska Medical Center analyzed nicotine pouch use in a nationally representative sample of 39,557 U.S. adults. The study found that 2.9% of adults had ever used nicotine pouches, with 0.4% reporting current use. The majority of adults currently using pouches also currently smoke cigarettes. Additionally, 5.2% of those who attempted to quit smoking in the past year and had relapsed back to smoking reported using pouches to help with their cessation efforts. The study was published in JAMA. "The low prevalence of nicotine pouch use in adults surprised us, given the rapid increase in sales," said study co-author Adam Matthew Leventhal, Ph.D., a professor in the department of population and public health sciences at the Keck School of Medicine and executive director of the USC Institute for Addiction Science. "But it's also possible that the sales are being diverted to adolescents, who were not represented in this survey."

Gen X Faces Higher Cancer Rates Than Any Previous Generation -A major new study projects that members of Generation X—people born between 1965 and 1980—have a higher rate of developing cancer than their parents and grandparents. And researchers are struggling to identify the reasons why cases are rising. Could it be related to changing diets or exercise habits? Are cancers themselves evolving to be wilier and more pernicious? The new research offers some possible clues.The model study, published in JAMA Network Open, sifted through cancer surveillance data collected between 1992 and 2018 on 3.8 million people in the U.S. Researchers looked for patterns in invasive cancer cases—those that have spread beyond the original site—within and among Generation X, Baby Boomers (people born in 1946–1964), the Silent Generation (1928–1945) and the Greatest Generation (1908–1927). The findings suggest that medical advances against some cancers—gained by better screening, prevention and treatment—have been overtaken by startling increases in other cancers, including colon, rectal, thyroid, ovarian and prostate cancers. This troubling trend has researchers baffled and scrambling for answers. “It’s really something that has been observed in multiple studies, and now I think it really is an undeniable fact that we’re seeing cancer rise in younger people,” “The study really reinforced what we already know but also provided us some additional insights into the trends within particular cancer sites and more detail on the rates of increase within individual groups.” Social generations, also called “birth cohorts,” are one useful way of grouping people, explains Philip Rosenberg, a co-author of the study and a principal investigator at the National Cancer Institute (NCI). Tracking cancer rates this way can help researchers line up trends over time with certain parallel events, such as a new risk factor or carcinogenic exposure, or population-wide lifestyle or policy changes. “One of the things we were able to do that was really novel was to sort of untangle that under-50 group and really assign the trends to birth cohorts.” Previous studies have reported that people younger than age 50 are experiencing higher rates of certain types of cancers, particularly those of the digestive system. The rate of colorectal cancer, for example, has been steadily increasing in people younger than age 50, despite incidence rates declining overall in the U.S. The new study showed similar growing trends among Generation X, but “the surprise for me was that it wasn’t just colon and rectum cancers,” Rosenberg says. “It was the number of cancers that was a big surprise.” Rosenberg and his co-author, NCI scientist Adalberto Miranda-Filho, predict in the new study that members of Generation X will experience increases in the rates of several cancers: those of the thyroid, kidney, rectum and colon. Additionally, women will experience higher rates of pancreatic, ovarian and endometrial cancers, and men will see increases in prostate cancers and leukemia. Generation X men are forecasted to have lower rates of liver and gallbladder cancers, while women are expected to see decreases in cervical cancer. All members of Generation X will also see declining lung cancer rates compared with those of previous generations.

COVID-19 lockdowns, quarantines linked to mental distress in teens -A study of 7,800 teens aged 16 to 18 years in Norway ties stringent COVID-19 public health protocols and quarantine with mental distress, particularly among 16-year-olds and those with less-educated parents and a lower genetic susceptibility to depression.Led by researchers from the Norwegian Institute of Public Health, the study collected data on 7,787 teens from the Norwegian Mother, Father, and Child Cohort Study (MoBa), national health registries, and a national lockdown-stringency index from April 2020 to February 2021. MoBa recruited pregnant women from 1999 to 2008, consenting to provide umbilical-cord blood samples for genotyping at delivery. The team measured mental distress with the Hopkins Symptom Checklist in six COVID-19 surveys. A total of 57% of the adolescents were girls, and 22% had experienced quarantine.On March 12, 2020, the Norwegian government closed schools and issued stay-at-home mandates, ordered 14-day quarantines for those who had traveled abroad or had contact with infected people, and initiated travel restrictions to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2."Adolescence is a critical developmental phase when mental health disorders, such as anxiety and depression, often emerge," the study authors wrote. "Stringent public health measures and quarantine mandates during the COVID-19 pandemic could threaten adolescent mental health." Strict COVID-19 public health measures, recent quarantine, and frequent quarantines were linked to greater mental distress, and the association wasn't changed by sex, age, prepandemic anxiety or depression, or genetic liability for mental illness in general. The effects were especially apparent among 16-year-olds, those with parents with lower educational attainment, and those with lower genetic susceptibility to depression."These findings emphasize the need for targeted support strategies to better protect adolescent well-being during future crises," the researchers wrote. "For instance, considering the varying risks and impacts across different people, quarantine measures might be adjusted so that they are not mandatory for vulnerable groups.""Adolescents who experienced increased mental distress during the COVID-19 pandemic may be at risk of continued mental health problems and in need of ongoing support," they added.

COVID tied to faster progression from preclinical to clinical type 1 diabetes in kids - A study of German youth with presymptomatic type 1 diabetes links COVID-19 infection to accelerated progression to clinical diabetes.For the study, published yesterday in JAMA, researchers in Munich and Dresden followed up with 509 children aged 1 to 16 years with presymptomatic type 1 diabetes participating in a screening program from February 2015 to October 2023. The team collected blood samples every 3 to 6 months and confirmed parent-reported COVID-19 infections through the detection of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Information on infection severity was unavailable. The median participant age was 4.1 years, and 46.2% were girls. "The incidence of type 1 diabetes increased during the COVID-19 pandemic," the study authors noted, and they sought to determine if COVID-19 contributed to the rise.Fifty-seven of 358 participants (15.9%) progressed to clinical type 1 diabetes before the pandemic, while 113 of 396 (28.5%) did so after the pandemic began. The incidence of clinical type 1 diabetes was 6.4 per 100 person-years prepandemic and 12.1 per 100 after March 2020. Of the 353 participants with COVID-19 information, 236 (66.9%) were infected. Type 1 diabetes incidence was 8.6 per 100 person-years during, versus before, the pandemic among uninfected participants and 14.0 among the infected. The rate of type 1 diabetes was 15.3 among participants with a parent-reported infection and 13.7 among those who had SARS-CoV-2 antibodies but no report of infection. The results "demonstrated that the COVID-19 pandemic was associated with an accelerated progression to clinical disease and that this acceleration was confined to those with COVID-19," the researchers concluded. "Further studies are required to determine whether COVID-19 also accelerates progression to type 1 diabetes in adults and whether vaccination and monitoring for COVID-19 symptoms should be considered for individuals with presymptomatic type 1 diabetes."

Study: COVID can trigger changes to the immune system that may underlie persistent symptoms --COVID-19 infection—even mild cases—can cause substantial long-term changes in the immune system that may be implicated in long COVID, concludes a new observational study by Medical University of Vienna (MUV) researchers published in Allergy.The researchers assessed the number and composition of cellular and humoral immune parameters in the blood (immune cells, cytokines, and growth factors) in 106 COVID-19 survivors 10 months after infection from May to August 2020, a period dominated by the wild-type virus. The team also measured levels of antibodies against the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein (S), receptor-binding domain (RBD), and nucleocapsid protein.The results were compared with those of 98 matched uninfected people. All participants were unvaccinated because COVID-19 vaccines weren't yet available, and the COVID-19 group wasn't reinfected between study enrollment and the end of the 10-month follow-up.The team had previously studied the effects of COVID-19 on the immune system in the same cohort 10 weeks post-infection, finding protracted effects even in patients with mild disease. "Not entirely unexpectedly, ten weeks after the infection, the convalescent patients showed clear signs of immune activation of both their T and B cells, in contrast to healthy study subjects," senior author Winfried Pickl, MD, of MUV, said in a university news release. Cytokines and growth factors in the blood were characteristic of remnants of acute inflammation at 10 weeks post-infection, and a comparison with the patient samples collected 10 months after showed a significant reduction in immune cells, a drop in SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, and a change in growth-factor patterns. Rather than activation and expansion of certain effector memory cells, transitional B cells, and immature B cells called plasmablasts, the researchers found a significant reduction of adaptive immune cells, including T cells and B cells, at 10 months.COVID-19 survivors also had significantly upregulated serum interleukin-4 (IL-4) levels and moderately upregulated IL-5 concentrations. Interferon-gamma levels, which were similar to those in the literature for controls and COVID-19 survivors at 10 weeks, had significantly declined by 10 months. S- and RBD-specific immunoglobulin G antibodies were undetectable in nearly 18% and in more than 80% of the COVID-19 cohort, respectively, by 10 weeks and 10 months. "Moreover, more than 90% of patients lacked neutralizing antibody activity at 10 [months], implying that a large proportion of study subjects after their first infection lost protection from reinfection," the researchers wrote.The authors said the findings may indicate that survivors' immune systems aren't adequately responding to pathogens and may explain some long-COVID signs and symptoms. Long COVID, they added, is presumably caused by long-term impairment in the function of bone marrow, the main producer of immune cells.

Risk of long COVID has ebbed during pandemic, mostly thanks to vaccines, new data reveal --A study yesterday in the New England Journal of Medicine from long-COVID researchers at Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis shows the risk of long COVID has decreased over time, most likely due to the impact of vaccination."We had a hunch that things have changed during the pandemic after the initial couple years, which were brutal," said Ziyad Al-Aly, MD, senior author of the study, in an interview. "But a hunch is not data. This study now shows COVID is dynamic, and I was pleasantly surprised by how much vaccines made a dent in preventing long COVID."As with his prior work, Al-Aly and colleagues mined data from the Veteran's Affairs (VA) health system to look at the risk of developing long COVID over the past 4 years. The study involved data on 441,583 veterans with SARS-CoV-2 infections and more than 4.7 million uninfected veterans, with accompanying health records from March 1, 2020, through January 31, 2022.The study assessed long-COVID symptoms 1-year post COVID-19 infection in one of five groups: unvaccinated veterans infected with either the original strain in 2020, the Delta variant in 2021, or the Omicron variant in 2022, and vaccinated veterans infected with either the Delta variant or Omicron variant.The highest risk of developing long COVID was seen among patients infected with the original strain of the virus, when no vaccines were available. Those case-patients had a cumulative incidence of long COVID symptoms 1-year post infection of 10.42 per 100 people (95% confidence interval [CI], 10.22 to 10.64), or 10.4%.Among the unvaccinated, long-COVID prevalence dropped with each subsequent variant, to 9.51 events per 100 people (95% CI, 9.26 to 9.75) in the Delta era and to 7.76 events per 100 people (95% CI, 7.57 to 7.98) in the Omicron era.Overall, vaccinated VA patients had significantly lower incidences of long COVID. Among vaccinated patients, the cumulative incidence of long COVID symptoms at 1 year was 5.34 events per 100 people (95% CI, 5.10 to 5.58) during the Delta era and 3.50 events per 100 people (95% CI, 3.31 to 3.71) during the Omicron era.Despite the significant reduction, Al-Aly warned that 3.5 people developing long COVID out of every 100 infected still poses a significant public health threat as the pandemic wanes. He said the findings are of particular interest during the current summer surge of virus activity, which sees many Americans being reinfected with the virus."Every time you get COVID is a chance to get long COVID," Al-Aly said.

Lower COVID vaccine uptake tied to unequal access to vaccination sites -A Boston Children's Hospital–led study reveals that COVID-19 vaccine uptake lagged among US children with more social vulnerability, lower socioeconomic status (SES), and greater household composition and disability (HCD) as of July 2022.The study, published today in Pediatrics, also identified longer travel times to vaccination sites for rural, uninsured, White, and Native American families.The researchers mined the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC's) Vaccine Tracking System in July 2022 to estimate vaccination-site accessibility by geocoding the sites, measuring travel times to the nearest site, and weighting population demographics to arrive at nationally representative vaccination estimates for October 2021 to July 2022. The team also compared COVID-19 county-level vaccine coverage by Social Vulnerability Index scores, SES, HCD scores, minority status and language (MSL), and housing and transportation types. HCD concerns the number of people living in a household, and disability refers to the disability of anyone in the household. COVID-19 has disproportionately affected marginalized and minority communities across the country, but access to testing, clinical trials, vaccines, and treatments haven't been equitably allocated to socially and clinically vulnerable adults, the study authors noted. "Children from marginalized and minoritized communities have also faced disparate impacts across the COVID-19 care continuum, including inequities in rates of COVID-19 infection and COVID-19-related hospitalization, ICU admission, complication (eg, multisystem inflammatory syndrome), mortality, and loss of a primary caregiver," they wrote.More than 15.2 million COVID-19 vaccine doses (271,589 doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine for children 6 months to 4 years, 6,270 doses of the Moderna vaccine for the same age-group, and 14,956,097 doses of the Pfizer vaccine for children aged 5 to 11 years) were given at 27,526 sites. In total, 2.0% of the US population and 2.7% of uninsured, 10.5% of rural, 13.2% of American Indian and Alaska Native (AIAN), 2.0% of White, 2.2% of Hispanic, and 1.2% of Black children lived more than 30 minutes from the nearest vaccination site for children 5 to 11 years. In contrast, 13.7% of the population and 65.9% of rural, 15.3% of uninsured, 25.3% of AIAN, 14.5% of White, 11.8% of Hispanic, and 9.0% of Black children lived more than 30 minutes from the nearest site for children 6 months to 4 years.Rural children had longer travel times than their urban peers in all demographic subgroups and both vaccine age-groups, with large differences in the accessibility to sites for the younger age-group. Relative to White children, who lived a median of 4.8 minutes away, AIAN children (13.5 minutes) lived farther from the nearest site for younger children, while Asian (2.2 minutes), Hispanic (2.7), and Black (3.4) children lived closer. For children 5 to 11 years old, the median travel time was 2.3 minutes for White children, 4.1 minutes for AIAN children, 4.1 minutes for Asian American children, 1.3 minutes for Hispanic children, and 1.6 minutes for Black children.Lower vaccine uptake was linked to higher Social Vulnerability Index scores, lower SES, and greater HCD among children aged 6 months to 4 years (overall incidence rate ratio [IRR], 0.70; SES IRR, 0.66; HCD IRR, 0.38) and 5 to 11 years (overall IRR, 0.85; SES IRR, 0.71; HCD IRR, 0.67). Social vulnerability by MSL, however, was tied to higher uptake (6 months to 4 years IRR, 5.16; 5 to 11 years IRR, 1.73)."Pediatric COVID-19 vaccine uptake and accessibility differed by race, rurality, and social vulnerability," the authors wrote. "National supply data, spatial accessibility measurement, and place-based vulnerability indices can be applied throughout public health resource allocation, surveillance, and research."

Two recent studies on Long COVID underscore the dangers posed by the “forever COVID” policy -- Two recent studies on Long COVID—a chronic disabling condition that afflicts many after infection or reinfection with SARS-CoV-2—provide important context to the anti-scientific abandonment of public health internationally. These reports lend further empiric evidence to the well-established fact that no one is safe from COVID-19 and that appropriate measures must be instituted immediately to protect people from future infections. The first of these two studies was led by Dr. Ziyad Al-Aly and published in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) Wednesday under the title, “Post-acute Sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the pre-Delta, Delta, and Omicron eras.” The purpose of the study was to address the real incidence of the condition given the broad estimates that have been mentioned in the media. The authors sought to understand how the different strains of SARS-CoV-2 that have emerged throughout the pandemic afflict people, both the unvaccinated and vaccinated.Al-Aly is director of the Clinical Epidemiology Center and chief of research development at the Veterans Affairs St. Louis Health Care System and has been leading clinical studies on COVID-19 throughout the pandemic that have provided critical insights into Long COVID, also known as Post-acute Sequalae of COVID-19 (PASC). In particular, they have demonstrated that considerable health detriments persist even three years after a COVID-19 infection, underscoring the chronic nature of the debility.Utilizing the Veterans Affairs’ vast medical database, they found that the cumulative incidence of PASC at one year after SARS-CoV-2 infection was 10.42 percent for unvaccinated persons in the pre-Delta era. This remained essentially unchanged during Delta, with Long COVID afflicting 9.5 percent of those infected. It declined very slightly to 7.76 percent of those infected with the Omicron strain, which first emerged and spread globally in November 2021.Among vaccinated persons, the risk of Long COVID was dramatically lessened by comparison. Only 5.34 percent of these individuals during the Delta era developed PASC after infection, a nearly two-fold lowered risk. For the Omicron era, the risk of Long COVID among vaccinated individuals had declined to 3.5 percent. Al-Aly noted, “[Although] the decline is welcome news, the remaining risk is still substantial. Multiplied by the number of people who continue to get infected and re-infected, these rates would add considerably to an already high toll of people already impacted with Long Covid.” In response to the question of how vaccines protect against Long COVID, Dr. Al-Aly explained to the World Socialist Web Site, “There is no mechanistic data to explain the data. [But] there are a couple of hypotheses. Vaccines reduce risk of severe disease which correlates with risk of long covid—but long covid can happen after even mild disease. So, this hypothesis may or may not be valid. Another hypothesis is vaccines may reduce viral load and enhance ability of the immune system to achieve viral clearance earlier—which may probabilistically lead to less chance of viral persistence and potentially less long covid. As you know, we need empiric data to evaluate these.” Indeed, when one reviews the critical analysis made by data scientists who have modeled COVID wastewater concentrations and calculated estimates of daily infections, since the Omicron era, on average well over 500,000 people are being infected every day or over 180 million cases per year. Assuming every person has been vaccinated, a rate of 3.5 Long COVID cases per 100 persons infected means that over 5 million people can expect to develop Long COVID each year on top of the massive burden that already exists. On the issue of the current state of vaccination in the US, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported that as of May 11, 2024, only 22.5 percent of adults have received an updated COVID vaccine since September 14, 2023. However, for children six months of age through 17, that figure is a deplorable 14.4 percent. Including the complete abandonment of all mitigation measures, the ongoing surge of infections is being driven by the waning immunity in the population. This raises to the fore the next important study, “Post-acute cardiovascular outcomes of COVID-19 in children and adolescents: an EHR [electronic health records] cohort study from the RECOVER project.” Conducted by the RECOVER (Researching COVID to Enhance Recovery) consortium and posted as a pre-print on medrxiv on May 15, 2024, the study exposes the lie that children are immune to the debilitation caused by COVID, specifically as it relates to their cardiovascular system. Analyzing the data for over one million children and adolescents, nearly 300,000 with COVID and over 900,000 without COVID, those with documented infection exhibited increased risks for a host of post-acute cardiovascular outcomes that include high blood pressure, heart rate problems, heart inflammation, heart failure and heart enlargement, shock from heart failure, blood clots, chest pains, and palpitations. The elevation of these risks ranges from 26 percent to three-fold.

Covid-19’s back. Should you be worried? | CNN— Covid-19 levels have been rising in the United States again.Emergency department visits associated with Covid-19 have been trending up for weeks, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The most recent data shows that during the week ending July 6 there was a 23.5% increase in emergency visits for Covid-19 compared with the previous week. The CDC also reports the viral activity level for Covid-19 in wastewater is high nationally as of July 6. I have seen these trends reflected in my own social group. Two friends have gotten Covid-19 this month while traveling. And we’ve seen more coronavirus infections being reported in public figures, with second gentleman Doug Emhoff recently testing positive and major sporting events such as the Tour de France affected with riders being diagnosed. It’s time to reset our understanding about Covid-19’s summer spread. Why is this summer wave happening, and do I really have to worry about infection again? What should people do to reduce their chance of infection while living their normal life? What if I’m traveling? Should I get the vaccine now versus waiting for an updated one? Do tests still work? And what should I do if I get Covid-19 — do I still have to sequester myself and stay away from family? To guide us through these questions, I spoke with CNN wellness expert Dr. Leana Wen. Wen is an emergency physician and clinical associate professor at George Washington University. She previously was Baltimore’s health commissioner.

• CNN: How much should people worry about Covid-19 infection now that there is a resurgence of cases?
• Dr. Leana Wen: Based on CDC numbers, it does appear that we are in the midst of a summer wave of Covid-19 infections. This shouldn’t be a surprise. Ever since the start of the pandemic, we have seen multiple waves of infections every year, including one that peaks in the summer. This could be due to increased travel as well as more people gathering indoors due to hot weather. Whether people should worry about Covid-19 infection depends on their specific medical circumstances. People who should be especially concerned are those who are older or immunocompromised or those with multiple underlying heart, lung, kidney and other medical conditions. They should be sure they are up-to-date with vaccines, have a plan for accessing antiviral treatment and consider additional precautions such as masking in crowded indoor spaces and trying to gather outdoors instead of indoors.
• CNN: What should people do to reduce their chance of infection while living their normal life around town?
• Wen: Many people have returned to their full pre-pandemic lives and are thinking of Covid-19 the way they consider other respiratory viruses: They don’t want to get these viruses, but they also don’t want to stop socializing and going to restaurants, the theater and religious services. I think the risk calculation will depend on the individual and their personal medical circumstances.One thing to consider is to reduce your chance of infection prior to visiting an especially vulnerable family or friend. For the week or so before that visit, you could avoid indoor gatherings and mask while on public transit and in other crowded spaces. Taking a rapid test just before the visit can also reduce your risk of infecting that vulnerable person.
• CNN: Speaking of tests, are home tests still a good way to diagnose Covid-19 if someone develops symptoms?
• Wen: Rapid antigen home tests are not as accurate as laboratory PCR testing, but they are a convenient way to screen for Covid-19. People who have symptoms and could be eligible for antiviral treatment should take the rapid test. If it’s initially negative, take it again the next day to be sure. Remember that this test only looks for the coronavirus. You could have one of a whole host of other viruses that cause respiratory symptoms. If you have symptoms, you should stay away from vulnerable people, even if you test negative for Covid-19.
• CNN: Do you have any recommendations for reducing risk while traveling?
• Wen: While in crowded spaces that aren’t well-ventilated, consider wearing an N95 or equivalent mask. For instance, mask while boarding the plane and on standing-room-only trains. Also, try to dine outdoors rather than indoors when possible. Bring rapid tests with you. And always have a plan for what happens if you get Covid-19. How will you access antiviral treatments if you are eligible for them? Where will you stay? Travel insurance is something I highly recommend; it can help with medical care and with allaying costs if plans must change.

The summer surge of COVID in the US and the implications of the anti-public health policy - The US is in the midst of an accelerating summer COVID wave, the ninth such wave since March 2020. The current epicenters are located in the West (one in 37 infected) and the South (one in 43) of the country. Given the complete abandonment of all public health measures, including vaccination, this development is being driven more by waning population immunity coming off the winter peak and less by any unusual “seasonality” patterns to SARS-CoV-2.It also underscores the important fact that we are not in any long-term, low-level endemic phase, a lie that has been perpetuated by every national and international public health official. The virus remains a pandemic pathogen. Its inherent viral characteristics indicate that it will continue to evolve and adapt, given the wide berth provided it by the political elites, whose primary concern is to do the bidding of the financial oligarchs.COVID’s persistence is intimately tied to the nature of a beleaguered globalized capitalism that has placed the profits of a few thousand people over the lives of a working class population numbering in the billions.According to two data websites that model COVID concentrations found in wastewater, those of JPWeiland and Professor Mike Hoerger, the rates of daily COVID infections have risen four-fold since the lows in mid-May. Currently, somewhere between 620,000 and 720,000 Americans are being infected each day, or one in 50 to 70 people.This also means that somewhere between 36,000 and 144,000 people can expect to develop Long COVID. The surge in infections is being driven by the latest variants of SARS-CoV-2, the FliRT subvariants of Omicron, KP.3 and KP.2, which account for 61 percent of all strains, and the LB.1, which accounts for just over 10 percent.One year ago at this time, the daily case rates were at 150,000 infections, indicating that we are not only seeing the summer wave peak earlier than before, but that the lows from one summer to the next are growing higher. And, leaving aside the Omicron peak in late 2021, the peak-to-peak incidence for each winter wave has also grown higher throughout the pandemic.No principled public health figure has ever defined an endemic state as a perpetual saturation of the population with a viral pathogen as is the current situation.Professor Hoerger, the program director of health psychiatry at Tulane University, who runs the top public US COVID forecasting dashboard, warned:Assume co-workers will be working sick or out sick, many people with new “allergies” and “summer colds,” camp closures, delays in auto repairs, sickness after medical and dental visits, flight delays, fender benders, longer wait times, covering other people’s work obligations, missed deadlines, errors and mistakes, sick politicians, increased geopolitical instability, angry outbursts, athletes dropping out of the Olympics and other sporting events, music concert cancelations, nonsensical email, more poorly managed weather events, last minute cancellations, brief small business closures, more conversations about specialty medical appointments, reliving conversations that have already happened but the person forgot, and more co-workers retiring early.These observations are corroborated by the limited data that remains available on the dashboards of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). In the last six months, more than 25,000 people have succumbed to infections. The number of fatalities week to week is climbing again. However, these figures must be viewed as undercounts, given the changes in hospital reporting and dismantling of COVID trackers that have placed the country in a mandated blackout. The undercounting is corroborated by the rise in test positivity, emergency department visits and hospitalizations.

Covid summer wave spreads across U.S., even infecting Biden - The Washington Post -- A summer covid wave has washed over most of the United States, bringing yet another round of gatherings turned into superspreaders, vacations foiled by illness and reminders that pandemic life has not been fully erased. Not even President Biden was spared.Coronavirus activity in wastewater reached levels considered “high” or “very high” in 26 states, according to the most recent data reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Other metrics also suggest the virus is rising, including the prevalence of covid diagnoses inemergency rooms and the rate of tests processed at labs coming backpositive, but not to the degree of the winter surge.Biden has entered isolation in his Rehoboth Beach home in Delaware after testing positive with mild symptoms Wednesday, the most high-profile example of the virus’s reach. In a July 7 campaign event in Pennsylvania, Biden contrasted himself against Donald Trump by declaring, “I ended the pandemic — he didn’t.” His administration no longer treats covid as a public health emergency— instead, managing it as a routine respiratory virus to be blunted with an annual vaccination campaign. This strategy reflects how SARS-CoV-2 has established itself as a common pathogen that no longer overwhelms hospitals or the health-care system — the threat that spurred drastic measures to contain transmission early in the pandemic.“Covid is not gone. Covid is going to be around, probably forever, and we are going to typically see two to three waves a year,” said Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health who stepped downlast year as the White House coronavirus coordinator.“It raises a question of how worried should we be,” Jha added. “It sounds scary, but it’s not, for most people.”At 81, Biden falls into the age group considered at highest risk of developing severe complications from covid. Older adults are more likely to have milder symptoms if they are up to date on their shots and receiveantiviral treatment early in their illness, experts say. Biden started a Paxlovid regimen Wednesday and received an updated coronavirus vaccine in September. White House officials did not respond to questions as to whether Biden received a second dose of the latest vaccine as recommended for seniors.The ongoing Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, with an estimated attendance of 50,000, has presented opportunities for covid transmission in an arena crammed with maskless people. (Masks are also uncommon at Biden campaign events.)Phil Griffin, a convention delegate from Winchester, Va., said he brought two masks in case organizers required them, but he has not worried about covid, even after Biden tested positive. “I’ve not heard anybody in Virginia or any of the delegations — Michigan, Ohio, Louisiana — around us that have had any symptoms,” Griffin said. “So we’re blessed, I guess like the president,” he added, referring to Trump’s narrow escape from a would-be assassin’s bullet. “We’re all at this point blessed to have good health — as far as we know.

Covid's summer wave surges on as Biden tests positive --President Joe Biden’s positive Covid test is reminiscent of many Americans’ experiences this month, as it comes amid a pronounced wave of summer cases. Though the U.S. is no longer tracking Covid cases, data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention suggests that infections are most likely rising in 45 states and aren’t declining anywhere in the U.S.Indeed, wastewater data show high levels of Covid nationwide — especially in the West and Southeast.Every summer since 2020 has had a wave of Covid cases. The uptick began earlier this year.A number of factors are fueling infections. Most people aren’t masking or taking other precautions as Americans break summer travel records. The weeks of extreme heat across the country have driven people indoors where the virus can spread faster.As an actively campaigning president, Biden has engaged in many of the activities that are conducive to getting Covid: traveling, shaking hands and attending events with large crowds.On Thursday, Biden’s physician, Dr. Kevin O’Connor, said in a statement that the president was “still experiencing mild upper respiratory symptoms,” but did not have a fever. Many other public figures have also tested positive for Covid recently: Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra on Tuesday, second gentleman Doug Emhoff earlier this month, and Sen. Laphonza Butler, D-Calif., and Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass in June. And anecdotally, some people have reported becoming infected for the first time after four years of avoiding Covid. “It’s a little uncertain whether people had asymptomatic infection previously and now they finally developed a symptomatic infection or not,” “But I’m sure there are some people out there that have never been infected, and they’re slowly getting picked off over time. Unless you’re a hermit living in the tundra and don’t interact with anyone, this virus will find you.” “It shouldn’t be a surprise that there are upticks in infection,” “I think it’s a combination of the hot weather leading to people congregating indoors in air-conditioned areas, as well as new variants.” New variants are key to when the surges occur, said Michael Osterholm, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. “Each of the peaks occur relative to the arrival of a new variant,” Osterholm said. While waning immunity from the last round of vaccines also plays a major role, A group of variants collectively known as “FLiRT” makes up more than 70% of Covid infections in the U.S. The name is a reference to their amino acid changes. The variants — KP.3, KP.2 and KP.1.1 — share the same key mutations, which could make it easier for the virus to bypass protection from vaccines or prior infections. Another variant, LB.1, accounts for an additional 15% of infections nationally. A preprint paper from June, which hasn’t been peer-reviewed, suggests that LB.1 could have an advantage over the “FLiRT” variants in terms of immune evasion and infectiousness. CDC data suggests that LB.1 is more dominant in the Northeast, whereas KP.3 is more dominant in southern and western states. There’s no evidence that any of the new variants cause more severe disease than their predecessors. And it’s unclear which of them has staying power. “We’re seeing three or four new variants sort of all competing against each other, and it’s not actually clear which one is going to emerge as dominant,” Barouch said.Unlike other typical winter illnesses such as the flu and RSV, Covid has proven it can spread widely any time of year.“There is no distinct Covid-19 season,” the CDC said in documents published on its website earlier this month. That has some experts suggesting that public health officials need to rethink the timing of Covid vaccines. The next round of updated vaccines won’t be available until this fall.Osterholm, 71, said even he was unsure of whether to get the current vaccine, “which is behind the curveball” in terms of how closely it matches the circulating variants. “Do I get a dose now, knowing that it’ll provide inferior protection, and keep me from getting the new vaccine for at least four months?”The CDC recommends waiting at least four months between doses for optimal protection. Katelyn Jetelina, an epidemiologist who tracks illnesses on her website, “Your Local Epidemiologist,” encouraged older adults who didn’t get a shot this past spring to get it now.“Do it soon, as we want at least four months between this and the upcoming fall dose, so that it works best,” she wrote. Those who test positive now and are at risk for Covid complications should consult their doctor about taking Paxlovid, an antiviral medication that can reduce the likelihood of hospitalization or death, Russo said. Biden, who is 81, is taking Paxlovid after his current diagnosis. He took the medication after a Covid infection in July 2022, then tested positive again after finishing the course. A minority of people taking Paxlovid experience such a rebound, but doctors say it doesn’t alter the drug’s benefits in high-risk people.

A Summer Covid-19 Wave - by Katelyn Jetelina, Your Local Epidemiologist -- I’m briefly coming out from hiding (a.k.a. summer break) to bring you a Covid-19 update. It seems like everyone has it right now (including the President). And I’m getting a ton of questions! We are in the middle of an infection wave. Covid-19 levels in wastewater—one of the best (only?) metrics of community spread these days—have reached the “high” category. This means that if you’re sick today, it’s likely Covid-19. This also means it’s time to get that indoor air moving and to wear a mask if you don’t want to get sick.The West is leading the way with infections, and levels are higher than last summer’s peak. It’s hard to tell if the West is peaking. While Hawaii has already peaked after its huge infection wave, California and Oregon continue to increase considerably. Other regions are following suit. In fact, 26 states have “high” or “very high” levels of Covid-19. (Enter your state here to see local levels.) Severe disease is also increasing, but starting at low levels. Thanks to population immunity building, rates are not as high as last summer’s peak (or the summer before). (Note for those data gurus: The figure below is among a subset of hospitals that have consistently reported data over time. In other words, the lower hospitalization rate isn’t due to a change in reporting behaviors.) In the UK, which always seems slightly ahead of the U.S. in waves, hospitalizations have peaked and remained lower than in Winter. This is due to the combination of three things:

1. Behavior change. People move inside due to the heat, and most spread happens indoors.
2. Covid-19 keeps mutating quickly—about twice as much as flu. The latest variant, KP.3, specifically its descendant KP.3.1.1, is a little booger because it dropped a mutation on the spike protein, which seems to be effective in getting past our first immunity wall (called neutralizing antibodies.)
3. Waning immunity. ~20-30% of the U.S. population was infected with Covid-19 this past winter, which means the virus has plenty of pathways to find due to low immunity. Among states with mild Covid-19 winters, like Hawaii and Oregon, summer waves are very high.

I am surprised by how early this summer wave is (typically, we see it later in the summer) and how high infections are getting. I hoped we would see smaller and smaller summer infection waves each year. Alas, Covid-19 has different plans. We are seeing uncomfortable mortality rates among medically vulnerable people, like older adults in nursing homes, who are more than 6 months out from their last vaccine. For older adults who didn’t get their vaccine this spring, I suggest getting a vaccine now. But do it soon, as we want at least four months between this and the upcoming fall dose, so that it works best. Last year, the winter Covid-19 wave started in November. This is the first wave since the updated CDC Covid-19 guidance. As a reminder, if you get infected, CDC recommends approaching isolation in two phases:

• Phase 1: Stay home when sick until your fever resolves for 24 hours or your symptoms improve. But many people remain contagious beyond this timeframe, though, so…
• Phase 2: Use caution for five days by taking additional precautions (e.g., wear a mask; or test before seeing grandma at the nursing home).

But what is the best approach? Isolate until your at-home Covid-19 test turns negative, which could be anywhere between 3 and 15 days. Once it turns negative, you can be confident you’re no longer infectious. Unfortunately, many people cannot afford tests or to miss work for this long. If you leave isolation beforehand, please wear an N95. A lot of people are traveling this summer. Remember that the virus likes crowded, indoor areas with poor circulation, like airport terminals and planes before takeoff. Longer flights also pose more risk—for every 1-hour increase in flight duration, there is an additional 53% risk of infection. Covid-19 continues to do its thing. We are in the middle of an infection wave, and hopefully, it won’t find you, so you can continue to enjoy your summer. Given these news cycles, we could all certainly use a break.

US COVID-19 activity continues to rise steadily -The latest COVID indicators from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) today showed more rises, with wastewater detections trending upward in all regions of the country, especially the West and South. The state of the nation's COVID activity this week was marked by President Joe Biden's announcement that he had tested positive for the virus. A letter from Biden's doctor, Kevin O'Connor, DO, yesterday said the president is still experiencing mild upper respiratory symptoms and that he continues to take Paxlovid. In its latest variant proportion projections, the CDC reported a big jump in KP.3.1.1 viruses, an offshoot of KP.3 that scientists this week said is poised to become dominant because of its higher infectivity and immune evasion. KP.3 and its relative, KP.3.1.1, together make up more than 50% of variant sequences.Among early indicators, the national test positivity rose to 12.6% last week, up 1.2 percentage points from the previous week, and were highest in the West and lowest in the Middle Atlantic states. Emergency department visits for COVID were also up slightly.Along with the CDC's report of high wastewater levels of SARS-CoV-2, WastewaterSCAN, a national wastewater monitoring system based at Stanford University in partnership with Emory University, notes that detections are in the high category, with no significant trend up or downward over the past 3 weeks. It said all regions of the country are in the high category, except for the Midwest, which is at the medium level. Hospitalizations for COVID are increasing, especially in people ages 65 and older, the CDC said in its weekly respiratory virus snapshot. Deaths from COVID showed no change from the previous week.

Why your COVID symptoms may feel different with this wave of infections – Coronavirus levels are once again “very high” in several U.S. states as the country experiences a summer wave of COVID-19 infections. For many Americans it’s been more than six months since they’ve had a booster shot or a recent infection, leaving them vulnerable to getting sick again.For those experiencing a reinfection, the symptoms they feel this time around may be different. “No two COVID infections really have behaved the same,” Dr. Joseph Khabbaza, a pulmonary and critical care doctor at Cleveland Clinic, recently told the New York Times. The virus is constantly evolving, with new variants and subvariants popping up regularly. Your body is also changing, and may respond differently to the virus depending on other health factors.Plus, once your body has encountered COVID-19, it may respond differently – even stronger –the second or third time around. Your body’s immune response may kick into gear right away, causing you to feel symptoms – like a fever – before you even test positive, infectious disease expert Dr. Peter Chin-Hong told the Times. Symptoms that were once common – like the loss of taste and smell – are reported much more rarely in 2024. Now, COVID is frequently confused with a cold due to so many overlapping symptoms. The most common symptoms of a COVID-19 infection these days, according to Mayo Clinic‘s Dr. Daniel DeSimone, are congestion, runny nose, headache, sore throat and coughing. These issues are reported in more than half of patients who have a symptomatic case of COVID. Other typical symptoms include chills, fever, body aches, fatigue, chest pain, changes in smell, or confusion (especially in elderly patients). Diarrhea, vomiting and other stomach issues are more common with current variants than they were early in the pandemic. There’s increasing evidence of these gastrointestinal issues – but they have been overlooked until more recently.

Summer COVID wave develops in Germany -- A wave of COVID infections has been emerging in Germany for weeks this summer, debunking claims that the pandemic is supposedly over. Despite the warm season, the number of infections is constantly increasing and is now at the same level as at the beginning of the wave last autumn. As a result, more people were ill at the beginning of July than ever before at this time of year. According to figures from the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), 5.1 million people in Germany are currently suffering from acute respiratory diseases. This means that the number of new respiratory infections is around 150 percent higher than before the pandemic. According to Christian Karagiannidis, Head of the Intensive Care Register of the German Interdisciplinary Association for Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine, the evidence is “clear”: “A coronavirus summer wave is currently building up.” This can be seen, for example, in wastewater monitoring. The infection radar of the Federal Health Ministry indicates a constantly rising viral load in all reported sewage treatment plants in recent weeks. While it was still at 42,000 gene copies at the beginning of May, it is now almost three times as high and stands at 119,000 gene copies. At the same time, the Health Ministry is also recording an increase in visits to the doctor due to COVID-19 infections. Thomas Rhein, head of the North Rhine Pharmacists’ Association, told the Rheinische Post newspaper: “Respiratory infections are well above the usual level in the summer months. Pharmacies are also feeling the effects. ... In general, the population’s defence mechanisms no longer seem to be as efficient since coronavirus. In addition to rhinovirus, RSV and influenza viruses, the coronavirus is a fourth new major challenge for the immune defence.” Coronavirus tests are in high demand in pharmacies. Matthias Blum, managing director of Krankenhausgesellschaft NRW, explained that hospitals were also feeling the effects of the wave. “We are currently experiencing a surprising increase in coronavirus infections for the summer season.” The increase was “moderate,” but “this development” was “naturally also reflected in inpatient cases in hospitals.” In recent weeks, the hospitalisation incidence level due to COVID-19 cases rose from 0.4 per 100,000 in May to 1.4 in July. This corresponds to around 1,170 hospitalisations per week. The number of hospitalisations is therefore more than three times higher than at the same time last year. These developments refute the claims of politicians and the media that the coronavirus has gone from a pandemic to an endemic state. No serious scientist would ever describe the spread of a virus as endemic when over 10,000 people per week are hospitalised every year during the peak phase in winter and the virus does not disappear even during the “low phases,” with many hundreds still having to be admitted to hospital every week. The consequences of the virus go far beyond immediate hospitalisations and deaths. In contrast to acute respiratory diseases such as influenza or RSV, one in 10 COVID-19 infections leads to long-term effects that can have devastating consequences and severely restrict the ability to work, move or see. At the same time, new and more infectious mutations emerge every year due to the unhindered spread of the virus. The current summer wave is being driven by the Omicron sub-variants KP.2 and KP.3, which account for 13 percent and 52 percent of infections, respectively. Both variants are extremely contagious.

Death certificate analysis pushes European COVID toll 18% to 27% higher than official records - The proportion of COVID-19 deaths in central Europe in 2020 and 2021 would have been up to 18% to 27% higher if death certificates listing the virus as a contributing condition had coded it as the cause of death, estimates a new study published in PLOS One. University of Warsaw-led researchers examined 187,300 death certificates from Austria, Bavaria (Germany), Czechia (Czech Republic), Lithuania, and Poland mentioning COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021. They performed a two-step analysis of cause-of-death association indicators (CDAIs) and contributing CDAIs to estimate the statistical strength of associations between COVID-19 and other conditions. "Excess deaths reported to causes other than COVID-19 may have been due to unrecognised coronavirus disease, the interruptions in care in the overwhelmed health care facilities, or socioeconomic effects of the pandemic and lockdowns," the authors noted. "Death certificates provide exhaustive medical information, allowing us to assess the extent of unrecognised COVID-19 deaths." A total of 15,700 death certificates listed COVID-19 as a contributing condition, and three of four recorded a statistically significant COVID-19 complication or pre-existing condition as the cause. "In Austria, Bavaria, Czechia, and Lithuania the scale of COVID-19 mortality would have been up to 18–27% higher had COVID-19 been coded as the underlying cause of death," the researchers wrote. "Unrecognised coronavirus deaths were equivalent to the entire surplus of excess mortality beyond registered COVID-19 deaths in Austria and the Czech Republic, and its large proportion (25–31%) in Lithuania and Bavaria." The undercount may be attributable to a lack of COVID-19 testing, atypical disease course, misclassification, or deaths from other causes such as cardiovascular disease and cancers that may have risen as strained healthcare systems prioritized COVID-19 patients or fallen owing to the reduction of risk factors such as air pollution, traffic, or other infectious diseases. "Finally, mortality may have increased due to harmful behaviours typical of the socioeconomic instability experienced by some groups during the pandemics, lockdowns and economic slowdown, such as abuse of noxious substances, suicides and accidents," the researchers wrote.

Global childhood vaccination hits plateau, with 35 million not fully protected from measles -Global childhood immunization progress leveled off in 2023, with 2.7 million more children with no or insufficient protection against serious diseases than in 2019, highlighting the need for an immunization push and to strengthen the system going forward, the World Health Organization (WHO) and UNICEF announced today.The new data on vaccination against 14 serious diseases in 185 countries show that 14.5 million children have received no doses of a key childhood vaccine, that almost 35 million aren't protected against measles, and that the global coverage hasn't returned to prepandemic levels."The latest trends demonstrate that many countries continue to miss far too many children, UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell, JD, said in a joint news release. "Closing the immunization gap requires a global effort, with governments, partners, and local leaders investing in primary healthcare and community workers to ensure every child gets vaccinated, and that overall healthcare is strengthened."Over half of unvaccinated children live in 31 fragile, conflict-affected countries with frequent lack of access to safety, food, and healthcare. "These trends, which show that global immunization coverage has remained largely unchanged since 2022 and—more alarmingly—has still not returned to 2019 levels, reflect ongoing challenges with disruptions in healthcare services, logistical challenges, vaccine hesitancy and inequities in access to services," the statement said.The number of children who received three doses of the diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis (DTP) vaccine plateaued at 108 million (84%) in 2023, while those who didn't receive even one dose rose to 14.5 million the same year, up from 13.9 million the year before. And 6.5 million youth received only two doses, the news release said.Nearly 35 million children have no or insufficient protection against measles, which has fueled outbreaks in 103 countries in the past 5 years. In 2023, only 83% of children were given their first dose of the measles vaccine, compared with 86% in 2019, and the number receiving their second dose climbed only slightly from 2022, to 74%. Most (just under 60%) of the unvaccinated or undervaccinated live in low-income countries, according to a WHO fact sheet.WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, PhD, called measles outbreaks "the canary in the coal mine.""Measles vaccine is cheap and can be delivered even in the most difficult places," he said in the release. "WHO is committed to working with all our partners to support countries to close these gaps and protect the most at-risk children as quickly as possible."

CDC analysis shows high rate of parental hesitation toward kids' vaccinations -- Analysis of US national survey data reveal that the percentage of children with a vaccine-hesitant parent varies by vaccine, ranging from 56% for the COVID-19 vaccine to 12% for routine childhood vaccines, according to a study yesterday in Vaccine.Researchers from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) wrote, "Some public health professionals have expressed concern that the COVID-19 pandemic has increased vaccine hesitancy about routine childhood vaccines." They analyzed data from the National Immunization Survey-Child COVID-19 Module from October 2022 through April 2023 to quantify the potential impact on children 6 months to 17 years old. They assessed their parents' hesitancy toward COVID-19, flu, and human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines, as well as "all other childhood shots."The percentage of children with a parent who was somewhat or very hesitant varied widely by vaccine, with hesitancy toward COVID vaccines, at 55.9%, far outpacing the others. The percentage of children who had a parent hesitant about the flu vaccine was 30.9%, for the HPV vaccine it was 30.1%, and for other vaccines, such as those protecting against measles, polio, and tetanus, it was 12.2%. The percentage that was very hesitant was 37.6%, 15.0%, 14.4%, and 4.1%, respectively, for COVID, flu, HPV, and childhood vaccines.Differences in hesitation among racial and ethnic groups also varied by vaccine. For example, for COVID-19, a lower percentage of Asian (38.1%) and Hispanic (51.5%) children had a hesitant parent than White children (58.4%). For flu, 20.3% of Asian and 27.9% of Hispanic children were in that category, compared with 30.2% of White children, 39.8% of Black children, and 35.3% of children of other or multiple races.The CDC researchers conclude, "The study findings of large differences in vaccine hesitancy across vaccines suggest the usefulness of developing vaccine-specific hesitancy interventions and communications for parents to educate about COVID-19, influenza, HPV, and other routine childhood vaccinations."

SHEA calls for more CDC funds after data show 20% hike in resistant hospital infections --A fact sheet published by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) yesterday highlights a 20% rise in hospital-onset infections caused by antimicrobial-resistant pathogens and a fivefold increase in Candida auris infections during the COVID-19 pandemic compared with 2019. A Society for Healthcare Epidemiology of America (SHEA) statement following the release of the fact sheet calls for continued investment in CDC programs that fight antimicrobial resistance (AMR). The CDC fact sheet is a follow-up to its latest AMR report in 2020, which described the rising threat of the AMR pathogens carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales (CRE), carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter, Candida auris, methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus (VRE), multidrug-resistant (MDR) Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL)-producing Enterobacterales. The 20% rise in these pathogens from before to during the pandemic peaked in 2021, but in 2022, all pathogens except MRSA remained above prepandemic levels. "The increases in antimicrobial resistance (AR) burden seen in 2020 and 2021 are likely due in part to the impact of COVID-19, which pushed healthcare facilities, health departments, and communities near their breaking points," the CDC authors wrote. "This resulted in longer hospital stays for hospitalized patients (including those diagnosed with COVID-19), challenged the implementation of infection prevention and control practices, and increased inappropriate antibiotic use." With American Rescue Plan Act funding, the CDC supported healthcare and public health professionals' efforts to prevent AMR through programs targeting healthcare-associated infections and AMR, antibiotic stewardship programs, and the CDC’s Antimicrobial Resistance Laboratory Network, the fact sheet said. The CDC pushed for investment in proven strategies, such as appropriate antibiotic and antifungal use, accurate lab detection, rapid responses, effective infection prevention and control, and innovative prevention strategies. Beginning in 2025, the CDC will release estimates for 19 or more AMR threats and updates on US AMR threats by pathogen in a new electronic format. "Going forward, CDC will release new estimates for the burden of these threats at least every two years," the authors wrote. "Data are critical to guide efforts to combat AR, and CDC is committed to providing the high-quality data required to steer this important work." In the SHEA statement, Thomas Talbot III, MD, MPH, president of the SHEA board of trustees, said that continued funding is needed to advance AMR-prevention strategies. "Sufficient funding for effective infection monitoring practices, accurate laboratory detection and rapid response are critical to limiting harmful resistant infections," he said. He noted last week's passage of the US House of Representatives Fiscal Year 2025 Labor, Health and Human Services, Education, and Related Agencies Appropriations bill, which cuts funding to the CDC by 20%, eliminates the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ), and restructures the National Institutes of Health (NIH).

Higher MRSA rate in cats, dogs than people may signal need for more vet antibiotic oversight --Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) was much more prevalent in lab samples from cats and dogs (17.8%) than from people seeking outpatient care (5.4%) in Germany, reveals a study published today in theJournal of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy.The Freie Universitat Berlin–led research team said the results suggest the need for validation of restriction and regulation of veterinary antibiotic use with antimicrobial resistance (AMR) surveillance.The researchers compared MRSA prevalence from human surveillance data with that from the results of 175,171 laboratory bacterial diagnostic samples of cats and dogs treated at 3,491 veterinary practices from January 2019 to December 2021. The animal samples (blood, urine, and tissue) represented 33.1% of German veterinary clinics.Causing mild to life-threatening illness, MRSA was the second-largest cause of attributable deaths and disability in Europe from 2016 to 2020 and is a World Health Organization high-priority pathogen. The research team identified S aureus in 5,526 animal samples (3.2%), with 17.8% of them methicillin-resistant. S aureus was more prevalent in cats (5.6%) than dogs (2.0%), but methicillin resistance was higher in dogs (20.4%) than cats (15.6%). Overall, the MRSA rate remained steady throughout the study period. S aureus was isolated from 6.0% of 16, 111 wound, 4.4% of 21 ,398 respiratory tract, 2.6% of the 67 ,293 skin/soft tissue, and 2.6% of 70, 370 other samples.MRSA was more prevalent in canine wounds (32%) than in other sample types (under 23%); there was no difference among cat sample types.Of MRSA-positive samples, 13% to 14% were resistant to sulfamethoxazole plus trimethoprim and gentamicin, while resistance in chloramphenicol, doxycycline and rifampicin was seen in under 6%. Farmed animals such as pigs have shown double the rate of MRSA than companion animals, but the authors said that companion and farmed animals rarely interact in Germany. "Instead, companion animals and humans share lifestyle factors and living environments, resulting in close physical interactions, with hugs, kisses and shared sleeping spaces," they wrote.

FDA OKs temporary import of Portuguese syphilis drug for newborns to ease US shortage --Mark Cuban's Cost Plus Drug Company announced yesterday that it has received temporary approval from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to import penicillin G benzathine into the United States to ease demand-driven shortages for babies born with syphilis. The drug is produced by Portugal-based Atral Laboratories under the Lentocilin brand name, according to aJune 11 letterfrom the company to healthcare providers. The adult and pediatric versions of the drug in the United States are made by Pfizer as Bicillin-LA.Lentocilin is available as a powder and diluent for injection. In its letter, the company noted some differences between its drug and the US version, including labeling and the fact that it contains soy, which may cause allergic reactions in some people. It also said the packaging doesn't contain a warning that the drug could be fatal if given by other routes, but that the prescribing information emphasizes that Lentocilin must be administered only by deep muscular injection.On X yesterday, Cuban said the shortage of the drug for babies with syphilis was worsened by the high price for the drug, which will be available through Cost Plus as a fraction of the cost, just $15 instead of $500. Lentocilin is the second drug the FDA has approved for temporary import to address US shortages. In January it allowed the temporary import of a similar drug from a French pharmaceutical company that makes penicillin G benzathine, which in the United States is made by Pfizer under the Extenciline brand name.US syphilis rates are climbing, with notable spikes in 2020 and 2021. Rates of infections in newborns are 10 times higher than the 10-year average, the highest in three decades.

The economics of rare disease therapies by Joel Eissenberg -- I came of age scientifically at the beginning of the cloning era. As various genes associated with human genetic disorders—sickle cell disease, cystic fibrosis, muscular dystrophy, Huntington’s—were cloned, the papers reporting these successes always ended with some statement that now the door was open to therapy. These prophecies proved to be wildly optimistic. Now, with the advent of CRISPR gene editing, it is becoming possible to realize the potential for gene therapies, at least for some diseases. There are dozens of clinical trials underway to pursue such therapies for some of these diseases. However, for rare and orphan diseases, these therapies are often not being pursued. Rare diseases are diseases that affects less than 200,000 Americans. Orphan diseases, including rare diseases, are neglected conditions whose treatments are often not considered profitable due to their cost to develop and limited patient population. Wiskott-Aldrich syndrome is due to a mutation that leads to immune and clotting defects. As a blood disorder, it represents a particularly attractive target for gene therapy, since hematopoietic stem cells are relatively easy to harvest from affected patients, and could be edited and reintroduced successfully with no problems of graft rejection: “For a while, it seemed gene therapy for Wiskott-Aldrich was on track for wider availability. Genethon, a French nonprofit research organization, sponsored promising clinical trials but didn’t have funding to continue development, CEO Frédéric Revah, PhD, said. “Drugmaker GlaxoSmithKline transferred another therapy to Orchard, which announced in 2019 that it had secured a designation from the FDA meant to speed up development and review. But Orchard discontinued investment in this and two other rare-disease treatments a couple of years ago, with CEO Bobby Gaspar, MD, PhD, saying the company sympathized with affected families and would look for other ways to advance the therapies. “”There’s a huge number of diseases out there that could benefit from gene therapy but for which there is no profitability model because the investment for research is high, the cost of production is high, and the number of patients is very low,” Revah said.” Once, the barrier to gene therapy was identification and characterization of the relevant gene and its mutations. Then, it was finding a strategy to correct the defect at therapeutic levels. But now, the barrier is economics. Who will pay for the development of therapies that can’t be justified on corporate spreadsheets?>

CDC Health Alert: Dengue fever cases in NY call for mosquito prevention – A mosquito-borne illness that has sickened many people worldwide has reached the U.S. and New York, according to a health advisory from the Centers for Disease Control. The CDC issued a health advisory at the end of last month warning the public about a spike in dengue virus infections. “From January 1 – June 24, 2024, countries in the Americas reported more than 9.7 million dengue cases, twice as many as in all of 2023 (4.6 million cases),” the CDC shared. Mosquito spraying in parts of Queens this month comes to the borough as healthcare professionals warn of the increase in Dengue fever cases this year and as a preventative measure for the West Nile virus. So far in 2024, nearly 143 cases of dengue fever have been reported in the greater New York area, including Queens, Rockland, Suffolk, Kings, Bronx and Dutchess Counties. The reported illnesses were travel-associated cases, meaning the individuals with dengue fever had contracted the illness while traveling outside the country, CDC data confirms. However, nine cases of locally acquired dengue fever were reported in Florida. Healthcare experts say dengue fever is transmitted through bites of infected Aedes species of mosquito (also known as yellow fever mosquitos), and taking preventative measures to eliminate mosquitos is helpful to prevent infection. The following neighborhoods in Queens are expected to undergo Mosquito spraying from the New York City Department of Health later this week: Residents are reminded to stay indoors during the spraying, as some people may encounter short-term eye or throat irradiation if exposed to the pesticide used — a low concentration of Anvil® 10+10, Duet® or MERUS® 3.

First Texas Case of West Nile Virus and a Global Increase in Dengue Virus Cases Highlights Need for Mosquito Precautions --- Public health officials urge Texans to be vigilant in protecting against mosquito bites after confirming the first Texas case of West Nile virus and 10 travel-associated dengue cases for 2024. Precautions should be taken in Texas and while traveling internationally to countries where dengue is endemic. The first case of West Nile in 2024 was reported in a Montgomery County resident who has been diagnosed with West Nile fever. As of today, the Texas Department of State Health Services has identified nearly 800 mosquito samples infected with West Nile virus in 24 counties.West Nile virus is transmitted through the bite of infected mosquitoes. Most people exposed to the virus don’t get sick, but about 20 percent develop symptoms like headache, fever, muscle and joint aches, nausea and fatigue. In a very small proportion, less than one percent, the virus affects the nervous system, leading to the more serious West Nile neuroinvasive disease that can cause neck stiffness, disorientation, tremors, convulsions, paralysis and even death.All of the dengue cases reported in Texas so far in 2024 were acquired while traveling internationally, but a small number of dengue cases have been acquired from mosquito bites in southern Texas in recent years. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recently alerted health care providers about the increased risk of dengue virus infections in the United States in 2024 based on an unprecedented number of cases being reported globally and higher-than-expected cases identified among U.S. travelers. Most dengue virus cases in the US have been linked to travel to places where the virus is endemic, including most tropical countries of the South Pacific, Asia, the Caribbean, South and Central America and Africa.Dengue virus is transmitted by infected mosquitoes and about 25 percent of infections become symptomatic. After about three to 14 days, infected people may develop a fever, nausea, vomiting, rash, muscle aches, joint pain, bone pain, pain behind the eyes and headaches. Most people recover completely within two weeks. However, about one in 20 symptomatic people develop a severe infection called Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever that can be fatal if untreated.“Unfortunately, many mosquitoes in Texas are capable of spreading diseases, such as West Nile and dengue. These diseases are often mild, but some people will develop severe illness,” said DSHS Commissioner Jennifer Shuford, MD, MPH. “So, it is important for Texans to know how to protect themselves against mosquito bites.”Heavy, widespread rain from Hurricane Beryl has left behind standing water that provides mosquitoes ample breeding ground to multiply. An increase in nuisance mosquitoes may initially occur in areas impacted by the storm. This may be followed by an increase in the types of mosquitoes that can spread diseases like West Nile. People working on clean up and recovery should take steps to protect themselves from mosquito bites.

Recent dengue infection may increase odds of COVID infection, hospital care In Open Forum Infectious Diseases, researchers link dengue infection to a slightly increased risk of subsequent COVID-19 infection and a significantly higher risk of severe COVID-19 illness and hospitalization. For the study, investigators at the National Centre for Infectious Diseases in Singapore used data from national registries to evaluate COVID-19 infections and outcomes among almost 3.4 million adults from July 2021 to October 2022, when waves of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta and Omicron variants followed a dengue outbreak. "Elucidating whether prior dengue potentially confers cross-protection against COVID-19 is of public health importance in tropical countries at-risk of overlapping dengue and COVID-19 epidemics," the authors wrote. In total, 13,434 dengue infections were documented, and nearly all (96.8%) were mild and didn't require hospitalization. During the same period, 1,253,520 subsequent COVID-19 cases were recorded, of which 9.2% occurred during the Delta wave and 90.8% amid Omicron. Most cases (82.3%) occurred in people who received a booster vaccine dose before infection. The average time from dengue to COVID-19 infection was 94.7 days. Elucidating whether prior dengue potentially confers cross-protection against COVID-19 is of public health importance in tropical countries at-risk of overlapping dengue and COVID-19 epidemics. Dengue infection was tied to a modestly elevated risk of subsequent COVID-19 infection (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.13) and a more than triple risk of severe COVID-19 (aHR, 3.39) and hospitalization (aHR, 3.25) across vaccination subgroups. In adults without previous dengue, the unadjusted incidence of COVID-19 was 894.7 cases per million person-days, compared with 1,537.5 per million person-days among those with dengue. A lower risk of severe COVID-19 reinfection and hospitalization was seen with a longer time since dengue infection, with lower risk of COVID-19 hospitalization among those with dengue 1 or 2 years (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.39) and 3 or more years before (aOR, 0.33), versus less than 1 year before. "Increased risk of adverse COVID-19 outcomes following dengue infection may potentially be attributable to overlapping sociodemographic factors predisposing at-risk individuals to both dengue infection and severe COVID-19; or may suggest the possibility of increased risk of subsequent severe COVID-19 through an antibody dependent-like enhancement mechanism, after a preceding infection," the researchers wrote.

Heath experts express importance of Dengue Fever when traveling this summer --Mosquito season in North Carolina is from March to October with peak season being from June to August or September, according to the CDC. Though the insect may just be classified as an annoying little critter to people, there are health concerns to be aware of. The CDC says the virus can spread through the bites of infected mosquitoes to people. ECU Health doctor Jacob Peirce says typically, the mosquitoes that transmit dengue, bite during the daytime. Symptoms include sudden high fever, severe headaches, pain behind the eyes, joint and muscle pain, nausea, and vomiting. Pierce says there are ways to protect yourself. “Deet—it’s an insecticide that’s been around for a long time. There’s a lot of commercial products that contain that, a lot of your bug sprays. They are fairly effective. One limitation to those is that they are water-soluble so if they get wet, they’ll wash off. They’re fairly temporary. They are longer-lasting products based on something called permethrin. That can also be found at certain sporting goods stores. That’s a little bit longer lasting. You can actually apply it to your clothes and can survive several wash cycles.” Pierce asked those traveling are among those most at risk. “Most severe cases of Dengue involve bleeding from the gums or nose. Those are kind of some signs to look out for but anyone traveling and returning with a fever should definitely get checked out by a doctor. With folks not being outside during the pandemic, they weren’t being exposed to the virus and developing protection and now as we’re all going back out to the community and people are getting bit by those mosquitoes, we’re seeing more of the disease.” Aside from those traveling, pregnant women are at risk. That’s due to the chance of dengue affecting a pregnant woman’s unborn baby, according to the CDC. According to the CDC, 400 million people get Dengue Fever each year.

Zika can have long-term consequences for immune system Only 5% of infants exposed to Zika virus in utero develop the physical or neurologic disabilities associated with congenital Zika syndrome, but new research published in eBioMedicine shows almost all children exposed to Zika in the womb may experience changes to the immune system.The study is based on a small cohort of Zika-exposed children followed up by researchers from the Cleveland Clinic and elsewhere, led by Suan-Sin Foo, PhD. In a press release from the Cleveland Clinic, Foo said her research fills in a missing gap in the Zika landscape. “The medical field has a very specific definition of congenital Zika syndrome. The children must have impaired skull or brain development," said Foo. "The rest of these kids may not even have a note on their chart mentioning that their mother was infected during pregnancy. Unless they're part of our study, they're essentially lost to the medical field."Forty-two Zika-exposed infants (ZEI) assessed at birth and 20 children exposed to Zika during pregnancy (ZEC, for Zika-exposed children) and assessed at age 2 years in Brazil provided blood samples and were compared to healthy controls. Researchers found high elevated levels of inflammation, even 2 years after the Zika virus infection was cleared. Moreover, the 2-year-olds showed an altered immune response to childhood vaccines in T-cell expression, with notably reduced anti-Diphtheria toxin and anti-Clostridium tetani Immunoglobulin G levels against diphtheria, tetanus, and acellular pertussis and measles, mumps, and rubella vaccines.The authors said their research will now shift to focusing on how to block Zika's effects during pregnancy. They added that their findings should encourage clinicians to broaden their understanding of congenital Zika syndrome."Our study clearly shows that there's much more to this condition than meets the eye. We need to expand diagnostic criteria and conduct more research to make sure these immunologically vulnerable children get the care they need," said Foo.

Tick that can cause meat allergy may be spreading: What to know — A tick known to cause meat and dairy allergies appears to be continuing its northward spread, prompting new reminders from health officials. The lone star tick, found primarily in southern states, has been on the move in recent years. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the lone star tick has been confirmed in more than two dozen states. Lone star ticks had, at one point, almost entirely disappeared from the northeast and Great Lakes region, Dr. Leslie Mertz explained in a 2022 article for Entomology Today. They’re now returning to those areas, thanks in part to shorter cold snaps during winter, the spread of invasive plants, and an increase in the deer population. Now that summer is here, the lone star tick (as well as others) is better able to thrive. Some health officials are already warning that they’ve seen an uptick in tick activity, causing concern. Lone star ticks are like most other ticks but are described as fast-moving, aggressive biters. Adult female lone star ticks are the largest and have a single white dot on their backs. Male lone star ticks are smaller with black lines visible on their back.. The lone star tick’s reported range stretches from Texas north to Nebraska, east to Maine, then south to Florida. Last month, the lone star tick was found in Ottawa County, Michigan — a state not included in the CDC map above. Parents found the tick crawling on their son, Nexstar’s WOOD reports. The tick had previously been reported in nearby Kalamazoo County as well. A few states over in Kansas, health officials say they’re seeing more tick-associated conditionslike alpha-gal syndrome, a disease the lone star tick is known to spread. The syndrome is sparked by alpha-gal, a “combination of a carbohydrate in a protein” found in the cells of different organisms, but not humans. Humans can develop alpha-gal syndrome after being bitten by a tick with alpha-gal. Lone star ticks are most associated with alpha-gal, though other ticks may also be involved. Sometimes known as AGS, alpha-gal syndrome is a potentially life-threatening allergy to red meat or other products made from mammals, according to the CDC. The agency reports that from 2010 to 2022, more than 110,000 suspected cases of AGC were identified in the U.S. The number is likely higher, though, because AGS is not a nationally notifiable condition.Symptoms of alpha-gal syndrome align with other allergic reactions, like hives or itchy skin; coughing, shortness of breath, or difficulty breathing; and swelling of the lips, throat, tongues, or eyelids. According to the CDC, other symptoms include nausea or vomiting, severe stomach pain, heartburn or indigestion, diarrhea, a drop in blood pressure, and dizziness or faintness. “Usually, it’s not as bad as a full anaphylactic reaction that you think about needing an EpiPen for or anything,” A 2023 study published by the CDC showed most suspected cases of AGS over the previous five years were in Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Virginia, as well as in parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and North Carolina — all areas with a population of lone star ticks. Those with alpha-gal syndrome are often advised to stop eating meat from mammals, including pork, lamb, venison, rabbit, and beef, as well as milk products. The CDC notes, though, that some patients may not experience a reaction to every product that contains alpha-gal. According to the Mayo Clinic, symptoms of AGS can lessen or disappear over time, with some patients able to eat products with alpha-gal again within a year or two.

Quick takes: Avian flu in Antarctic seal, more US measles, imported Oropouche virus in Europe | CIDRAP

• Spanish researchers yesterday reported the first detection of highly pathogenic H5 avian flu in a sea mammal in Antarctica. The positive samples were from a carcass of an elephant seal on the Coppermine Peninsula of Robert Island. The scientists are part of a research expedition that in March collected samples from different South Shetland islands to look for avian flu. The samples were frozen, then analyzed at a lab in Spain. Earlier this year, virus was found in sea mammals in the subantarctic area of South Georgia island, as well as in birds on Antarctica's mainland.
• US states and jurisdictions continue to track new measles cases and exposures, including Washington, DC, where health officials on July 12 announced that they were notified about a confirmed case in a person who had visited multiple locations in the district while infectious. Elsewhere, local media reports said two measles infections in adults have been reported at a migrant shelter in Brooklyn, New York. Also, Oregon health officials announced two new cases, both in unvaccinated children from Marion County, according to a media report. The infections were diagnoses on July 11 and July 12, and the children had no known public exposures.
• Italy and Spain recently reported imported cases of Oropouche virus, an insect-borne disease, in travelers who returned from Cuba, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) said in its most recent weekly communicable disease report. Each country reported three cases. Cuba is experiencing its first outbreak involving the virus, which is typically spread through the bite of the Culicoides paraensis midge. The ECDC said the risk of secondary transmission in Europe is low because of the absence of known vectors in the region.

Brazilian scientists probe link between Oropouche virus and poor fetal outcomes --In an update on Oropouche virus yesterday, the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) said Brazilian scientists are investigating miscarriages in two pregnant women infected by the insect-borne virus this year and the possibility of other poor fetal outcomes, including microcephaly.Oropouche virus, which causes symptoms similar to dengue, is most commonly spread by a species of biting midge called Culicoides paraensis but can also be transmitted by certain Culex mosquitoes. Over the past several months, the virus has spread to areas or countries where locally acquired cases hadn't been reported before, and, as of July 16, nearly 7,700 cases had been reported in five countries in the Americas this year, with Brazil bearing the biggest burden.On July 12, Brazilian officials reported an infection in a pregnant woman who contracted the virus in Pernambuco state and experienced a miscarriage at 30 weeks gestation. Fetal samples examined at the Evandro Chagas Institute confirmed Oropouche virus in umbilical cord blood and fetal tissues, suggesting vertical transmission. Final classification of the case is pending further investigation.Officials also reported a second suspected case involving a pregnant woman from the same state who had been sick with Oropouche virus symptoms and who miscarried in the eighth week of gestation. Polymerase chain reaction testing on a serum sample collected on June 12 was positive for Oropouche virus and negative for Zika, chikungunya, dengue, and Mayoro viruses. Researchers weren't able to collect fetal samples for testing.Retrospective testing of blood samples collected for arbovirus research found four newborns with microcephaly who had antibodies against Oropouche virus but were negative for other viruses. "The limitations of the studies do not allow establishing a causal relationship between [Oropouche virus] infection and neurological malformations," PAHO said

3 new cases of possible bird flu reported in Colorado - State health officials in Colorado have identified three new possible cases of bird flu among poultry workers. The Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment said in a release Friday that it had identified three presumptive positive cases of avian influenza in workers who were responding to an outbreak of the virus at a commercial egg operation. The state agencies notified the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and sent the specimen to confirm that it is in fact bird flu.“The workers were culling poultry at a farm in northeast Colorado and exhibited mind symptoms,” the release said.Symptoms included conjunctivitis — commonly known as pink eye — and common respiratory infection symptoms. None of the individuals were hospitalized, the state said.“State epidemiologists suspect the poultry workers’ cases are a result of working directly with infected poultry,” the release said.The CDC is sending a team to Colorado to support an investigation, the federal agency said.“As we learn more, we will continue to assess the situation and provide updates,” the CDC said. “These preliminary results again underscore the risk of exposure to affected animals.”Both agencies list the risk for the general public as low.The CDC said earlier this month that the fourth human case of bird flu was reported.If the federal agency tests the Colorado cases and they come back confirmed for the H5N1 virus, it will bump up the number of those infected to seven.The concern began after more than 40 cattle herds nationwide have confirmed cases of the virus.There is concern for a potential widespread outbreak. A former CDC director predicts that one day there will be a bird flu pandemic, once the virus learns how to transfer human to human. The mortality rate for bird flu is much higher than COVID-19.

4 new bird flu cases confirmed in Colorado --The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) confirmed on Sunday four new human cases of avian flu, bringing the total number to eight confirmed cases nationwide since March.An additional human case is presumed positive and pending confirmation at the CDC, the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment (CDPHE) said in a statement Sunday.All five cases were reported in farmworkers who were responding to an outbreak of the virus at a commercial egg layer operation in Colorado. Three of the cases were reported Friday by the CDPHE, which then sent samples to the CDC to conduct testing to confirm.The CDPHE said the infected people were all culling poultry at a farm in northeast Colorado.They experienced “mild symptoms,” including pink eye and “common respiratory infection systems,” the department said. None of the workers was hospitalized.The state is investigating the cases, with support from the CDC, the CDPHE said, adding that as of Sunday, “State epidemiologists suspect the poultry workers’ cases are a result of working directly with infected poultry.”Earlier this month, Colorado reported its first human case of the bird flu linked to the dairy cow outbreak, the fourth case reported nationwide. Since March, two cases have been identified in Michigan and one case identified in Texas. Those cases were all unrelated, the CDC said.While the risk to the public remains low, health officials are warning the public to be vigilant about only drinking milk that is pasteurized and only eating “properly handled and cooked dairy, beef, and poultry products.” The CDPHE this month said Coloradans should not touch sick or dead animals, but if they need to people should wear personal protective equipment including an N95 respirator, eye protection and gloves.

Colorado reports avian flu infections in 5 people who culled sick poultry --The Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment (CDPHE) has reported five human H5 avian influenza infections in workers who were part of the response to a recent large outbreak at a layer farm, four of which have been confirmed by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).The patients have mild illness, including conjunctivitis and common respiratory symptoms. None were hospitalized, according to statements from the CDPHE. Though officials haven't said if the virus on the poultry farm is the same as the B3.13 genotype infecting dairy cattle, conjunctivitis has also been reported in four dairy farm workers over the past few months.Last week, the Colorado Department of Agriculture reported an outbreak at a large layer farm in Weld County, where the virus has also struck several dairy herds. The layer farm had 1.78 million birds, the state's second-largest outbreak since H5N1 first emerged in US birds in 2022. The Weld County poultry outbreak recently prompted an emergency declaration from the state's governor, a step that frees up more resources to help with the response.Colorado has been one of the states hit hardest by the virus, with at least 36 H5N1 outbreaks in dairy cows, 23 of them from Weld County.On July 12, the CDPHE reported three presumptive positive cases in poultry farm cullers working at a farm in the northeastern part of the state. It also added that state health officials had collected more samples from other symptomatic workers and that the investigation was ongoing with support from the CDC. '"State epidemiologists suspect the poultry workers’ cases are a result of working directly with infected poultry," the CDPHE said. Yesterday, the CDPHE upped its number of avian flu detections in poultry cullers to five, noting that the CDC has confirmed four of the infections and that results are pending for the fifth case, classified as a presumptive positive for now. On July 3, the CDPHE reported H5 avian influenza in an adult male dairy farm worker exposed to infected cattle. He had mild symptoms, including conjunctivitis. The CDC yesterday also weighed in on the new Colorado cases, adding that it would confirm the fifth case when the samples arrive. Genetic sequencing of the virus is under way to determine the neuraminidase of the virus from the poultry workers. It said a multidisciplinary, bilingual field team of nine people has been deployed to Colorado to assist state health officials. Since the start of the H5N1 outbreaks in cattle in March, which are occurring alongside sporadic outbreaks in poultry, nine infections have been reported in farm workers, four in dairy workers and five in poultry workers. The most recent human case linked to sick dairy cows was reported from Colorado.

Cluster of H5N1 bird flu cases among Colorado poultry farm workers raises alarm --The Colorado Department of Public Health and the Environment (CDPHE) reported Sunday that five workers have tested positive for the highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1 bird flu) virus. All five workers are employed by a single commercial egg layer operation. Thus, the event represents the first cluster of bird flu cases in humans, from a common source, discovered to date.All the workers were involved in slaughtering chickens known to be infected with H5N1, a process known as culling. The workers were part of an effort to control the spread of the virus by culling 1.8 million chickens.The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) confirmed the test results for four of the five workers, with confirmatory testing currently in progress for the fifth individual. The CDPHE had reported “presumptive positive” results for three of the five on Friday, noting that samples had been sent to the CDC for the confirmatory testing. For the fourth CDC-confirmed positive worker, the state’s presumptive positive result came back late Friday evening and was confirmed by the CDC on Saturday. The fifth outstanding presumptive positive result occurred Saturday and samples were sent to the CDC for confirmation, which is pending.“I am extremely concerned that we are on the brink of this being really already in humans—and once it’s in humans, it is going to be a real problem to control,” said Seema Lakdawala, an influenza specialist at Emory University.The concern expressed is not only the occasional “spillover” case from animals to a human, although that type of event itself is highly worrying. Rather, the significant additional concern with this cluster of cases, arising from a single operation and in close temporal proximity, is that it raises the possibility that the virus has already gained the ability to transmit from human to human. “When it’s clustered like that, it tells you that your risk has gone way up because the contact is causing the illness,” said May Chu, an epidemiologist and professor at the Colorado School of Public Health. “The concentration of persons at one location getting infected tells me the virus is spreading a lot better.”Colorado Governor Jared Polis had already declared a disaster emergency on July 5 in response to the outbreak in chickens in the Weld County facility at the center of the outbreak. This declaration activated the state’s Emergency Operations Plan to allow the Colorado Office of Emergency Management to provide resources to help the facility respond to and contain the bird flu outbreak.The five infected persons had symptoms of conjunctivitis, an inflammation of the eye that gives it a pink or red appearance, and “common respiratory infection symptoms.” The reports do not indicate further which respiratory symptoms the workers were experiencing. Conjunctivitis has been reported in other human cases of H5N1 acquired from poultry and cattle, including one worker at a dairy farm in Colorado whose case was reported on July 3. At present, the H5N1 virus spreads to humans through direct contact with infected animals or contaminated equipment such as cow milkers. Thus, the best way to prevent acquiring an H5N1 infection is to wear personal protective equipment such as masks, gowns, gloves, and goggles that serve as a barrier against infected material.

Colorado workers with bird flu toiled in heat, without effective protective gear (Reuters) - Colorado workers who contracted bird flu were working during extreme heat and under large fans, factors that made wearing protective equipment difficult and potentially contributed to their infections, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Tuesday.The CDC had previously confirmed four cases and a fifth presumptive positive case of bird flu among Colorado farm workers who were killing and disposing of chickens that had contracted the virus.Four other farm workers have contracted avian flu this year from infected dairy cows in Michigan, Texas and Colorado. The risk to the general public from bird flu remains low, Nirav Shah, principal deputy director of the CDC, said on a call with reporters. When workers were killing the infected chickens, it was 104 degrees Fahrenheit (40 degrees Celsius) in Colorado, and strong industrial fans made it hard for workers to keep protective gear on their faces, Shah said. "PPE use was not optimal, particularly the masks and eye protection," Shah said, referring to personal protective equipment. There have been about 160 people responding to the poultry farm outbreak, including staff from the U.S. Department of Agriculture and contractors killing and disposing of animals, Julie Gauthier, an official at USDA's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, said on the call. About 60 workers at the farm developed symptoms and were tested, Shah said. Those who tested positive for bird flu had a mix of mild symptoms including conjunctivitis, or pink eye, and mild respiratory symptoms. Initial analysis of the virus does not show worrisome changes to the virus making it easier to spread among people, and there is no evidence of person-to-person transmission, Shah said. The CDC is not recommending that livestock workers be vaccinated against bird flu, Shah added. The infected chicken farm is in a county where cows have tested positive for bird flu, Eric Deeble, a U.S. Department of Agriculture official, said on the press call. More than 150 dairy herds across 13 states have been infected with the virus since March, according to the USDA. An analysis of DNA from an infected worker indicates that the infections at the chicken farm are "largely the same" as those in some of the dairy herds, suggesting that this outbreak may be related to dairy outbreaks in Colorado and other states, Shah said. A CDC investigation into the origin of the outbreak is ongoing, Shah added.

Officials probe heat-wave factors in H5N1 spread to Colorado poultry cullers -- As the investigation continues into recent avian flu infections in as many as five workers who culled Colorado poultry, officials today said that industrial fans in poultry barns where temperatures exceeded 104°F could have spread the virus through windblown feathers and through the air, potentially reducing the effectiveness of personal protective equipment (PPE). Also, early genetic analysis suggests that the virus that infected the poultry and the workers is the same H5N1 genotype infecting dairy cattle, a useful clue for officials who are examining connections between the farms.So far, four H5 avian flu infections have been confirmed in cullers working at a large Colorado layer farm in Weld County that was hit by the virus. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is working to confirm a fifth presumptive positive case.At a Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) telebriefing today, Nirav Shah, MD, JD, principal deputy director for the CDC, said 60 workers with symptoms were tested, and so far only 5 tested positive in Colorado's testing for H5 avian influenza. Others may be sick with other illnesses, such as rhinovirus. Shah praised Colorado health officials for their planning and preparedness. "As soon as there were symptomatic poultry workers, they sprang into action." Colorado officials had obtained additional PPE from the Strategic National Stockpile (SNS), including goggles, gloves, and respirators. In the wake of infections in livestock workers, the state ordered and immediately received about 500 oseltamivir (Tamiflu) courses from the SNS.Officials, however, are bracing for more cases, given the ongoing laborious culling process and challenges with the heat and PPE. Julie Gauthier, DVM, MPH, executive director for field operations with the US Department of Agriculture's (USDA's) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, said there are roughly 160 people involved in the culling process, and those who have hands-on roles wear Tyvek suits, N95 respirators, goggles, boots, and gloves. She said it's possible that the hard push from the industrial fans may make it hard for workers to keep their goggles and respirators in place. She said culling is a laborious process that requires workers to load several dozen chickens onto carbon dioxide gas carts, which kills the birds within about 90 seconds. The layer farm houses about 1.8 million birds, and officials expect the culling operation to be completed over the next 10 to 14 days. Shah said a confluence of factors may have contributed to the farm worker infections and that the investigation is still under way. He added that a CDC environmental hygienist is part of the field team and is looking at ways to optimize PPE use and reduce the risk from environmental factors. So far, all of the H5N1-infected workers have mild infections and are recovering, Shah said. Though the CDC said earlier that the patients' symptoms include conjunctivitis and typical flu symptoms, he emphasized that not all workers had respiratory symptoms and not all had eye symptoms.No other illnesses have been found in patient contacts, he said. The workers are contractors who specialize in depopulation and have close connections at work as well as in their living situations, which Shah said makes contact tracing a bit easier for state health officials. So far, there is no sign that the virus is more severe or more transmissible, either from animals to people or among humans, he said. The virus still remains avian, with no changes to make it better adapted to mammals. Deeble told reporters that a four-person trace-back team is on site to conduct the epidemiologic investigation on the animal side. They will explore how the poultry contracted the B3.13 genotype virus from cows. Weld County, where the layer farm is located, has been a hot spot for dairy farm H5N1 outbreaks in Colorado. Deeble said poultry are very susceptible to the H5N1 virus. "It doesn't take much to introduce it into a flock."

Chicken culling, disposal raise concern as bird flu spreads (Reuters) - The spread of bird flu among poultry and dairy farms has heightened some health experts' concerns that the process of killing and disposing of poultry infected with the virus may pose a risk to humans and livestock. Recent instances of farms dumping carcasses in landfills and using methods to kill chickens that put workers in close proximity to the virus show how the process of getting rid of infected birds could further spread the disease, according to data obtained by Reuters and interviews with officials and disease experts. Extreme heat that made it difficult to keep protective equipment on during the asphyxiation by carbon dioxide of chickens on a Colorado egg farm likely contributed to five bird flu cases among workers, the largest cluster of human cases in the United States, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and Prevention said this week. The situation highlights the need for systematic use of protective gear when killing the sick animals, said the CDC's Principal Deputy Director Nirav Shah on a Tuesday call with reporters about the outbreak. Workers killing chickens risk inhaling the virus, said Dr. Michael Osterholm, an infectious disease expert at the University of Minnesota, of the process. The workers had mild symptoms including pink eye and respiratory issues. "Depopulation activities need to clearly focus on protection for these individuals," he said. The Colorado Department of Agriculture said in response to questions that the method of killing birds is decided jointly between the state, the farmer, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). Bird flu has migrated to nearly every U.S. state over the past 2.5 years. There have been nine cases among poultry and dairy workers since March, including the Colorado poultry workers. Further bird flu spread among livestock could increase the likelihood of human infections, though the risk to the general public is still low, officials from the CDC have said. About 95 million chickens, turkeys, and other poultry have been killed and disposed of since February 2022, according to USDA data obtained by Reuters showing culling and disposal methods through late June. Bird flu is fatal in birds and the government requires entire flocks to be culled once the virus is on a farm. The deadliest year was 2022, but nearly as many chickens have been disposed of so far in 2024 as in all of 2023, the data shows. The sick workers in Colorado, for instance, were killing the birds with mobile gas chamber carts, said Julie Gauthier, an official at USDA's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, on the Tuesday call. The carts can typically accommodate between a dozen and 50 birds and workers asphyxiate them batch by batch, Gauthier said. A USDA spokesperson said the agency had reviewed the farm's use of the method as part of its response to the outbreak. More than 150 of the workers were exposed to infected poultry, 69 displayed symptoms and were tested, and five were positive, said AnneMarie Harper, communications director at the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment.

Study suggests earlier US-licensed H5N1 vaccines prompt antibodies to current strain - Though federal health officials are moving ahead with a plan to produce 4.8 million doses of H5N1 avian influenza vaccine that targets the clade (strain) circulating globally and infecting US dairy herds and some farm workers, older H5N1 vaccines in the Strategic National Stockpile (SNS) might be useful in a pinch.A team led by researchers from the US Food and Drug Administration looked at the ability of three H5N1 vaccines targeting three earlier H5N1 clades from Indonesia and Vietnam that circulated in the early 2000s to neutralize antibodies against the current 2.3.4.4b clade. All three are already licensed and are in the SNS. Two are adjuvanted, meaning they contain an immune-boosting substance. The group published its unedited findings yesterday in Nature Communications to provide early access to the new information.At a media briefing this week, federal health officials said H5N1 vaccination isn't yet recommended for farm workers exposed to animals that carry the virus, but discussions remain ongoing. Their rationale is that infections are mild, and they have seen no changes to suggest the virus is more transmissible or is poised to cause more severe disease. An official from the Department of Health and Human Services' Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response said the fill-and-finish of a vaccine specific to the current clade from bulk candidate vaccine is still on track, with the first doses to be delivered in July. However, once produced, the vaccine would still need to go through regulatory approval before doses are used in people.

Tests confirm H5N1 in Oklahoma dairy herd; 13 states now affected -- The Oklahoma Department of Agriculture, Food, and Forestry recently confirmed the state's first highly pathogenic avian flu outbreak in a dairy herd, bringing the number of affected states to 13.In research developments, a team from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported results from H5N1 challenge studies in heifers and lactating cows, which showed that the virus can spread between cattle by both respiratory and mammary routes. In a July 12 statement, Oklahoma officials said the sample was collected by the dairy farm in April and was recently submitted to the USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) for testing. It added that the herd has recovered and the farm has not reported any other cases. Oklahoma State Veterinarian Rod Hall, DVM, said, "Our team has been in constant communication with Oklahoma dairies asking them to heighten their biosecurity practices. PPE [personal protective equipment] has also been made available to Oklahoma dairy farmers."The statement did not provide information on the long delay between sample collection and publication of the test results.In an update today, the USDA APHIS said 157 H5N1 outbreaks have now been confirmed in 13 states, which includes the Oklahoma herd plus additional new detections in Colorado and Idaho.For the challenge study, USDA researchers in a biosafety-level 3 agriculture facility used a B3.13 genotype H5N1 virus to inoculate two nonpregnant but lactating Holstein cows by the intramammary route and five 1-year-old Holstein heifer calves by the aerosol route. Four of the calves received the virus, and one received buffered saline. The scientists reported their findings on the preprint server bioRxiv. They have not been peer-reviewed. The lactating cows infected by the intramammary route had significant milk disease that mirrored what farmers and scientists have previously reported. High viral RNA levels were detected in milk, and researchers isolated the virus, found lesions in mammary tissue, and saw evidence of seroconversion.Virus persistence was still seen in mammary glands and milk for up to 24 days after inoculation. Meanwhile, heifers who were infected through the airborne route had mild disease. Scientists found replicating virus in the airways and lungs, suggesting that asymptomatic cows are able to spread the virus to herd mates. The team also found evidence of seroconversion.

H5N1 strikes another large layer farm in Colorado, dairy herd in Minnesota -- As Colorado continue its response to a highly pathogenic H5N1 avian flu outbreak at a massive egg-laying farm connected to five H5 illnesses in people working as poultry cullers, federal agriculture officials confirmed another outbreak at a large layer farm that houses 1.3 million birds. Both of the layer farms are in Weld County in the northeastern corner of the state, where several outbreaks have been reported in dairy cattle.In other developments, Minnesota's Board of Animal Health reported another affected dairy herd, which is located in Stearns County in the central part of the state. In a new wastewater development, WastewaterSCAN reported a new H5 influenza detection in Arkansas involving the city of Harrison's wastewater treatment plant. No recent outbreaks or detections have been confirmed from the state. Wastewater detections aren't able to determine the source of the virus. WastewaterSCAN's H5 tracking has detected the virus in nine other states, all but one of which (California) has reported dairy cattle or poultry outbreaks.In other wastewater tracking, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said that, across the 2 weeks ending July 6, no states were at the high level for influenza A, which can't distinguish H5N1 but can be a surveillance signal for health officials to explore the source.

Backyard chicken flocks have higher rate of Campylobacter than those on farms, study finds - A new prevalence study of the common foodborne bacterium Campylobacter in North Carolina chickens shows it is almost twice as common in backyard flocks than on commercial farms, and isolates are often resistant to antibiotics. The authors say the findings are significant because chicken is the top consumed meat worldwide, and backyard poultry production is increasing in the United States. The results were published in JAC - Antimicrobial Resistance. North Carolina State investigators obtained samples from 10 backyard and 10 commercial broiler farms in North Carolina to follow flocks throughout production. They collected fecal and environmental samples at days 10, 31, and 52 days post-hatch in backyard flocks and on days 10, 24, and 38 on commercial farms. Environmental samples were collected from the soil, litter/compost, and feeders and waterers. Of samples collected from backyard flocks, 21.9% tested positive for Campylobacter, compared with 12.2% of the farm samples. Most of the isolates were identified as C jejuni (70.8%), with the rest C coli (29.2%). The breakdown of positive sample locations in backyard farms was 70.2% from fecal samples, 6.4% from soil, 3.5% from litter/compost, and 19.9% from swabs of feeders and waterers. For commercial farms, the rates were 84.2%, 0%, 12.6%, and 3.2%, respectively. Antimicrobial susceptibility testing revealed phenotypic resistance to ciprofloxacin (40.2%), an important treatment drug for Campylobacter, and tetracycline (46.6%). The researchers found a higher proportion of resistance in C jejuni isolates and on the commercial farms. The authors concluded, "Despite higher prevalence in backyard farms, we found a higher proportion of resistant isolates in commercial farms, with unprecedented higher levels in C. jejuni versus C. coli."

Lice cause significant harm to cage-free poultry, study finds -- Lice have been found feeding on the skin and blood of free-range chickens, which are infected at much higher rates than caged flocks. This finding could have implications for states like California, where all egg production is cage-free. Previously, lice were not known to be significant poultry pests. However, a new UC Riverside study published in the journalParasites & Vectors shows for the first time that they are."We didn't expect to find skin lesions associated with chicken body lice, but we did. This has not, to my knowledge, been documented before," said UCR entomologist and lead study author Amy Murillo. For this study, the sensors were used to monitor activity at three points in time—during a period where cage-free chickens were not infested with lice, during a growing infestation, and during a full-blown infestation. The clearest signal of a lice infestation was an increase in preening behaviors, as the birds clean their feathers with their beaks. While preening is generally considered positive, too much of it could disrupt other healthy chicken behaviors. A major increase in preening was detected even when the lice infestation was relatively small. "Just a few lice and you see a dramatic change in what the chicken is doing," Murillo said. "I don't know if you can measure itchiness or irritation, but they're spending significant amounts of time trying to get the lice off."Lice tend to live in places on the body, both in humans and in chickens, that make it harder for hosts to remove them. Chicken body lice tend to go under the wings, a place with a warmer than average skin temperature that is harder for birds to reach. The lesions the researchers found there were actively bleeding.

Court Considers Penalty for Harming Stray Cats Under Evolving Animal Cruelty Laws -- Court News Ohio -- Since 1871, Ohio has criminalized cruelty to any animal. In the early 2000s, state lawmakers recognized a need for greater protection for “companion animals,” such as dogs, cats, and other animals kept inside a residential dwelling. Penalties were increased for those causing serious injuries to companion animals. How to categorize stray dogs and cats as well as roaming “community cats” that neighbors collectively care for has been a question for Ohio courts. Next week, the Supreme Court of Ohio will consider whether a stray kitten found in an apartment building’s basement is viewed as a companion animal and whether a man who poured bleach and water on the kitten can be convicted of a felony. In October 2021, Cleveland police responded to a call of a distressed cat, and found a kitten on an apartment building basement floor lying still in a mixture of bleach and water. Alonzo Kyles was at the top of the stairs and told police he poured the mixture on the kitten because he feared it and wanted it to leave the building. The kitten was taken to a nearby veterinarian, who found the kitten wasn’t in pain but had experienced burned paws from the bleach and warned that bleach exposure can be deadly to cats. Kyles was charged with cruelty to a companion animal, which has penalties ranging from a misdemeanor to a felony. He was convicted of felony-level cruelty and sentenced to nine months in prison. The Eighth District Court of Appeals vacated his conviction, finding the stray kitten didn’t meet the definition of “companion animal” under the law. The appeals court ruled that Kyles could be convicted of the misdemeanor-level cruelty that has applied to all animals since the 1800s. The Cuyahoga County Prosecutor’s Office appealed the decision to the Supreme Court of Ohio, which agreed to hear the case. The case has drawn national attention. Several organizations, including the Humane Society of the United States and Alley Cat Allies, are participating in the case by submitting amicus curiae briefs supporting the prosecutor. The state law protecting companion animals, R.C. 959.131, has evolved since it was first enacted in 2003. The definition of “companion animal” now states that a companion animal “means any animal that is kept inside a residential dwelling and any dog or cat regardless of where it is kept, including a pet store as defined in section956.01 of the Revised Code. ‘Companion animal’ does not include livestock or any wild animal.” Kyles argued, and the appeals court agreed, that “any dog or cat regardless of where it is kept” applies to a dog or cat that is “cared for” or “under the control of” a person. Since the kitten was a stray, it didn’t meet the definition of a companion animal, the appeals court ruled. The prosecutor and the animal advocates argue in their briefs that the interpretation contradicts the law’s plain language and ignores the legislative history of escalating animal cruelty penalties. The briefs explain that Ohio joined other states in the early 2000s in calling for steeper penalties for cruelty to animals often kept as pets. For the first time in state history, cruelty to an animal could be a felony rather than a misdemeanor. Under the 2003 version of the law, a felony could only be charged for a second or subsequent offense, a brief from the David Brauff Animal Law Center at Cleveland State University College of Law explained. In 2013, the General Assembly passed “Nitro’s Law” to extend felony-level cruelty to dog kennel operators for “keeping” animals but not caring for them. Nitro, a Rottweiler in training at a kennel, and eight other dogs were starved to death. The owners, under the 2003 version of the law, were convicted of misdemeanor cruelty. In 2016, lawmakers honored northeast Ohio television broadcaster and animal advocate Dick Goddard with “Goddard’s Law,” which made the knowing attempt to cause serious physical harm to a companion animal a fifth-degree felony on the first offense, the animal law center explained. The prosecutor argues the law was developed to recognize protection for all cats and dogs, whether cared for or uncared for, stray or kept. Kyles disputes the claim, arguing that if Ohio wanted to protect all dogs and cats, the state could do as other states and define companion animals “as any animal that is kept inside a residential dwelling and any dog or cat.” If the sentence ended with “any dog or cat,” Kyles argues, there would be no need to add further words to define the status of the animals.

Online sales of a wild bat sold as décor threaten species --A fiery orange bat, its wings folded and tiny teeth forever bared on its fuzzy face, is mounted inside a 6-inch, black coffin. Its retail price: $59. Or, for $140, you can get one framed with its black and orange wings spread, deliverable in two days.Despite declining numbers in the wild, hundreds of specimens like this of Kerivoula picta—or painted wooly bat—are being sold on Etsy, eBay and Amazon as jewelry, Halloween decorations, and jarred curios.A study published July 9 in the European Journal of Wildlife Research found "abundant evidence that this bat is victimized by this trade," wrote its authors from the University of California, Davis, and City University of New York-Queens College.They led the first comprehensive study of the ornamental trade in a bat species with members of the International Union of the Conservation of Nature's (IUCN) Bat Trade Working Group."These bats are not from the United States, but they're being sourced from across Asia and then brought here and used as décor," said co-leading author Nistara Randhawa, a UC Davis data scientist and epidemiologist. "With this study, we hope to raise awareness and propel the conservation of this species."K. picta is a finger-length bat prized for its striking orange and black coloring and long, wooly fur. The bats live in parts of South, East and Southeast Asia, roosting in leaves and hunting insects in forests and fields. Categorized on the IUCN Red List as a near-threatened species, the painted wooly bat's conservation status is expected to worsen with the rise and ease of global e-commerce.For the study, the scientists used data mining and manual data collection to analyze and quantify the online bat trade across U.S.-based eBay, Etsy and Amazon websites during the 2022 Halloween and Christmas season.Of the 856 bat listings identified, 215 were for K. picta, representing 284 individual painted wooly bats. U.S. sellers on eBay and Etsy shipped bats from 30 states and K. picta, specifically, from 19 states. Tennessee sold more bats than any other state, accounting for 45% of K. picta listings. It was followed by Illinois, California and Florida, which together made up 27.5% of K. picta vendors."We're talking about 284 distinct individuals found over just a three-month period," said co-leading author Joanna Coleman, an assistant professor at CUNY-Queens College and co-chair of the IUCN's Bat Trade Working Group."That doesn't include all the others sold on websites and physical shops year-round across the world. Because these bats are quite scarce on landscapes, we are concerned that hunters might be systematically going out and removing every individual they see."

Dutch winter bee mortality rate above 20%, finds annual survey -- In the winter of 2023–2024, 21.2% of the Dutch population of honeybee colonies died. While this mortality rate is lower than that of the previous winter, it still represents a worryingly high number of bee colonies that did not survive this winter period.The annual winter mortality rate is determined through a beekeeper survey conducted every year by researchers from Wageningen University & Research, in collaboration with de Nederlandse Bijenhoudersvereniging (NBV), Imkers Nederland (IN), the biodynamic beekeepers (BD-imkers) and professional beekeepers (BVNI), commissioned by the Ministry of LNV.This year, it is especially the south and north of the Netherlands that experienced relatively high winter mortality among honeybee colonies. Notably, in the previous year, the highest winter mortality was primarily observed in the east, center and western regions. However, such regional variations are common as good and bad years alternate in beekeeping practice.A total of 2,640 Dutch beekeepers participated this year in the annual COLOSS survey (COLony LOSSes, www.COLOSS.org), which is conducted in more than 40 countries; 25% of Dutch beekeepers participated. The Netherlands has about 11,000 active beekeepers; more than 95% are hobbyists. Almost half of the beekeepers (48.3%) reported that all their hives survived the winter, which is an improvement from last year (38.7%). Nonetheless, 6.7% of beekeepers faced a completely extinct bee population.Explanations for winter mortality among bee colonies are diverse. For example, the death of the queen during winter is fatal to the hive. Additionally, combinations of factors can endanger the health of bee colonies. If bees enter winter already weakened, for example, due to a combination of reduced food supply and disease, the likelihood of hive mortality increases. Two other major causes of poor bee health are bee viruses and the parasitic mite Varroa destructor.The extent to which the invasion of the Asian hornet in the Netherlands affects winter mortality is unknown. These hornets prey on insects to feed their own larvae. Two hundred and twenty-eight beekeepers observed Asian hornets at their apiaries. The effect of this invasive species on the mortality of entire bee colonies in the Netherlands is difficult to estimate. However, we suspect that the Asian hornet will play an increasing role in the mortality of Dutch bee colonies.

DNA tests confirm shark that bit California swimmer was juvenile white shark --A shark that bit a swimmer in Del Mar last month, leaving the man hospitalized with significant wounds, was a juvenile white shark, likely around 9 feet long and 6 to 8 years old. That determination came from analyzing DNA left on a wetsuit worn by the swimmer on June 2, and bite marks on the fabric, said Chris Lowe, director of the Shark Lab at Cal State Long Beach. It is unknown why the shark bit 46-year-old Caleb Adams as he was swimming with a group about 100 yards offshore near Del Mar's main lifeguard tower. Adams suffered wounds on his torso, left arm and hand during the Sunday morning swim on an overcast day when the water was murky. Fellow swimmers heard Adams screaming and used a surfboard to help him onto the beach, where lifeguards and others provided first aid, applying a tourniquet to stanch his bleeding before loading him into an ambulance. Adams told CBS 8 he was surprised how big the shark was and said he felt lucky to have survived. At one point, he punched the shark as it was biting him, causing injuries to his hand. "I think my wounds reflect that it was only a portion of what the shark could have done, so I can consider myself really lucky," Adams told the station. Adams has resumed swimming, but only in a swimming pool at this point, he told CBS 8. Lowe said it could not be determined if the shark in the Del Mar incident was male or female. Fully grown white sharks can be up to 23 feet in length and live 45 to 70 years.

375-pound loggerhead sea turtle returns to Atlantic Ocean after 3 months of rehab in Florida --A 375-pound (170-kilogram) sea turtle has been released back into the Atlantic Ocean after three months of rehabilitation in Florida.Officials with the Brevard Zoo released a male loggerhead named Bubba Wednesday afternoon in Cocoa Beach.Biologists with Inwater Research found Bubba in St. Lucie County on April 10, officials said. After noticing injuries to both front flippers, they used a crane to pull him out of the water and into a carrier in their pickup truck to bring him to the zoo.A preliminary exam found that Bubba had likely been injured in a predator attack. The sea turtle was also dealing with an intensive infestation of marine leeches, which were causing anemia.Biologists estimate Bubba is 60 to 75 years old.

Former BLM director signs up to lobby for wetlands defense --Cassidy & Associates registered to lobby on issues related to the Okefenokee Swamp for the ​Southern Environmental Law Center. The swamp spans 438,000 acres across the Florida-Georgia line and a majority of it is protected by the Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge and the Okefenokee Wilderness, but the Southern Environmental Law Center is pushing back on a mining company that wants to mine 8,000 acres on the edge of the wetlands.Neil Kornze, former director of the Bureau of Land Management and chief of staff to Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.), will work on the account.

Wolves' return has had only small impact on deer populations in Washington state, study shows --Humans drove wolves to extinction in Washington state around the 1930s. Thanks to conservation efforts, by about 80 years later, wolves had returned—crossing first from the Canadian border into Washington around 2008 and later entering the state from Idaho. Since then, wolf numbers in Washington have been steadily growing, raising questions about what the return of this large predator species means for ecosystems and people alike.In northeast Washington, where wolveshave recovered most successfully, researchers from the University of Washington and the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife tracked one of their primary prey—white-tailed deer—in part to see what impact wolf packs are having on deer populations. The answer? So far, wolves aren't having as much of an impact on deer as other factors.In a paper published June 18 in Ecological Applications, the team reports that the biggest factors shaping white-tailed deer populations in northeast Washington are the quality of habitat available and a different, long-established large predator in the state: the cougar, also known as the mountain lion or puma. Wolves were a distant third in their impact."A big take-away from this study is that wolves are not returning to empty landscapes. These are places with humans and other carnivore species, like cougars, which will affect the impact that wolves can have," said lead author Taylor Ganz, who conducted this research for her UW doctoral degree as part of the Washington Predator-Prey Project."This area has a relatively high human footprint compared to other areas where wolves have been studied. These are not national parks or dense, old-growth forests. They are areas with active logging, farming, ranching and towns. Our findings show that these factors are likely limiting the impact of wolves on one of their primary food sources."It's not that wolves aren't preying on white-tailed deer. According to the study, they are just not enough to take a large bite out of the population as a whole.

Eastern U.S. faces punishing blast of heat late this weekend into next week - The Washington Post -- After blasting the western United States for the past 10 days, record heat is poised to shift into the eastern United States over the weekend and early next week. Some parts of the east could see their hottest weather of the summer so far. “Widespread record values” are predicted as it becomes “dangerously hot for many,” the National Weather Service wrote in a discussion Friday. Records highs in the east are possible as soon as Friday and Saturday in parts of Georgia and the Carolinas. From Sunday through Wednesday, record heat will expand to cover much of the East Coast. The Weather Service’s HeatRisk product shows numerous eastern cities reaching “extreme” Level 4 heat — the highest level on its 0-4 scale — for at least a day or two through early next week. The extreme heat will be most persistent and widespread from southern Louisiana to the Carolinas. Even as the intensity of the heat in the West lessens, it will remain warmer than normal. “Much of the nation will experience above-average temperatures next week,” the Weather Service wrote. Much of the western United States faces one more day of widespread extreme heat that could break numerous records even while its intensity has begun to diminish some in the Pacific Northwest. Excessive-heat warnings cover much of California, Nevada and portions of surrounding states. Much of the Desert Southwest and California Central Valley reached 110 degrees or higher Thursday and will do so again Friday. Palm Springs, Calif., hit 119 on Thursday, while Las Vegas reached 118, its record sixth straight day making it to at least 115 degrees. Its average high of 116.9 degrees over the past week was the highest on record by a wide margin, easily surpassing the previous mark of 115.1 in 2005. Elsewhere, Salt Lake City should also rise near 105 Friday, while Sacramento soars to 110. Heat advisories also extend eastward, covering parts of eastern Colorado, including Denver, parts of Wyoming, eastern Montana and western Nebraska. The heat will also extend to the Houston area, where hundreds of thousands remain without power after Hurricane Beryl. In Denver, highs are expected to rise near and above 100 Friday through Sunday. Chris Bianchi, a broadcast meteorologist for 9News in Denver, described the heat wave as “very unusual and serious” in a post on X. Where the heat is headed next Record warmth takes a road trip from the west to the east over the weekend, where it will linger for a few days before returning westward. Monday and Tuesday appear to be the hottest days of the upcoming stretch. Records are likely from the South into New England. Atlanta, Charlotte, Raleigh, N.C., and Knoxville, Tenn., are forecast to flirt with record highs near 100 Sunday and Monday. Highs in the mid-90s to around 100 will also reach the Mid-Atlantic on Monday, including D.C. Its forecast high of 101 would be the hottest of the year so far. Highs well into the 90s should also spread over much of southern New England. High levels of humidity will make it feel even hotter. A huge swath from the central Plains to the Mid-Atlantic and southward can anticipate heat indexes, which takes humidity into account, of 100 to 105. The steamiest locations could flirt with 110..

Major New York City bridge gets unexpectedly stuck open as summer temps soar, authorities investigate -A New York City bridge became stuck open on Monday afternoon after hot summer weather caused it to overheat, pictures show. The Third Avenue Bridge, which connects Manhattan and the Bronx over the Harlem River, became stuck at around 2:46 p.m. The metal in the 126-year-old bridge had overheated, according to FOX 5 New York, which reportedly caused it to swell.The New York City Fire Department confirmed the incident to Fox News Digital on Monday afternoon."[There was a] report of bridge stuck halfway open," officials said. "Marine units standing by as well as land units."Aerials show firefighters pumping water onto the bridge in an effort to cool it down. The temperature in New York City was as hot as 90 degrees on Monday. The bridge originally opened in 1898.

Denver breaks 146-year heat record as temperature soars to 38.3 °C (101 °F), Colorado - Denver broke the 146-year-old record for the hottest July 14 after hitting 38.3 °C (101 °F) at 12:56 local time (LT) on July 14, 2024. Just two days before that, it had also broken the record for the highest recorded temperature for July 12. Denver International Airport hit 38.3 °C (101 °F) at 12:56 local time on July 14, 2024, breaking the previous heat record of 37.8 °C (100 °F) for July 14 set in 1878. Before this, Denver broke the heat record for July 12 when the mercury struck 38.9 °C (102 °F). The previous record for the highest temperature on July 12 was set in 1971 when the temperature hit 38.3 °C (101 °F). Before that, Denver had hit 37.8 °C (100 °F) on June 25, making this the third time Denver has hit the 37.8 °C (100 °F) mark this year.

USPS worker dies in Fayetteville, North Carolina after shift in mail truck on 95-degree day -- US postal worker Wednesday “Wendy” Johnson died on June 6 after working for hours in the back of a mail truck in Fayetteville, North Carolina in record temperatures. Local news reports relate that Johnson was found unresponsive in a restroom 15 minutes after returning to the post office. She later died at Cape Fear Valley Hospital. She was 51-years old and a 20-year veteran of the US postal service. The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) is investigating Johnson’s death as heat related. This June was the second hottest on record since 1887 by half of a degree with an average daily temperature of 80.9 degrees, the result of the steady upward trend of hotter and longer heat waves since 1961. OSHA guidelines warn that when the Heat Index (HI) reaches 80 degrees Fahrenheit (27°C) or higher, there is a significant increase in serious heat-related illnesses and injuries among workers, particularly in workplaces where employees are engaged in strenuous activities such as shifting and delivering packages in the back of a mail truck. As the HI climbs to 95 degrees and beyond, the risks rise further. While the temperature on June 6 was 95 degrees Fahrenheit, the temperature in the back of the mail truck in which Johnson was riding was 102 degrees, according to texts the worker sent to her family that day. Heat is the second-leading cause of injury to USPS workers, comprising 14 percent of all on-the-job injuries in the Postal Service. Between 2015 and 2023, there have been 160 reports of heat-related injury by postal workers, according to OSHA. Between 2012 and 2023, seven USPS workers died due to heat while on the job. Johnson’s death occurred two weeks short of the one year anniversary of the death of veteran Dallas, Texas mail carrier Eugene Gates Jr. of heat stroke. Gates died after having received a disciplinary letter indicating that an investigation had revealed Gates was “in violation of postal rules and regulations” determined by the TIAREAP surveillance system, which tracks every minute of a letter carrier’s route, including pauses for water and cool air which can be life saving when working in high temperatures. It was 110 degrees in Dallas the day Gates died; his internal body temperature at the time of death was recorded as 104 degrees. Both workers’ deaths are the result of systemic work speedup imposed on both city and rural carriers. New evaluation systems for each, TIAREAP for city carriers and RRECS for rural carriers, were implemented through agreements between the USPS and the union bureaucracies in the past two years, and have had disastrous impacts on carriers’ wages and working conditions.

Severe thunderstorms hit Chicago, enhanced risk of severe storms in northern Illinois and Indiana - Multiple alerts were issued across the Midwest on July 14, 2024, as severe thunderstorms rolled through the region, causing widespread damage. The severe weather threat is expected to continue until July 16. On July 15, the Midwest and Plains regions of the United States continued to experience severe weather conditions that have caused widespread damage and power outages over the past few days. On July 14, the Chicago area experienced multiple weather alerts as fierce winds and heavy rains impacted the region. A severe thunderstorm warning was issued for LaSalle, Will, and Grundy counties, as well as part of Kendall County, until 00:30 LT on July 15. Additionally, southeastern Cook County in Illinois, northern Lake County, and Porter County in Indiana were under a severe thunderstorm warning until midnight. Sorry, the video player failed to load.(Error Code: 101102) The NBC 5 Storm Team forecasts that temperatures on July 15 will likely soar into the mid-30s °C (mid-90s °F), with high humidity pushing heat indices to 40 °C (105 °F) in the Chicago area. The Storm Prediction Center has placed northern Illinois and northern Indiana at an “enhanced” risk of severe storms for the evening of July 15, with all severe weather threats possible, including torrential rains, gusty winds, hail, and a chance of tornadoes.

Derecho Causes Widespread Damage In Midwest, Including Chicago | Weather.com - A​ long-lived thunderstorm complex called a derecho raced across the Midwest Monday night, producing widespread damaging winds from Iowa to Illinois, including Chicago, Indiana and southwest Michigan.I​n Indiana, a 44-year-old woman was reportedly killed when a treefell on her Cedar Lake home, according to ABC 7 Chicago.A​nother person was injured by a falling tree and taken to a hospital, according to the Chicago Fire Department. The CFD responded to several calls of downed power lines, fallen trees and collapsed porches.I​n Washington County, Illinois, officials warned of an "imminent" dam failure amid an active flash flood warning, forcing the evacuation of some residents.O​fficials warned residents in a portion of Nashville, Illinois, that the Nashville dam was at risk of "imminent failure." Alongside a shaded map, the Washington County Emergency Management Agency posted an update stating, "If you are in the grey box, you need evacuate now!"About 300 residents live in the evacuation zone, Darrah Sabo, deputy director of the Washington County Emergency Management Agency, told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.N​ashville is about 50 miles southeast of St. Louis and has a total population of about 3,400 people.E​arlier in the day, officials said the area was "experiencing an emergency flood situation" and cautioned residents to stay home except in the case of evacuation orders. National Weather Service radar estimates 3 to 5 inches of rain fell in Nashville in a 24-hour period as of about 11:30 a.m. EDT. A​bout 11 miles of Interstate 64 in the area were closed due to flooding.A​ccording to the National Weather Service, a tornado was responsible for damage to structures, trees and power lines in Polk County, Iowa, where Des Moines is located. A damage survey will be performed Tuesday to determine how strong the tornado was.I​n the Windsor Heights area in western Des Moines, debris was tossed as the twister tore through nearby neighborhoods. T​rees were scattered in the aftermath of the storms, but no deaths were reported in the Des Moines area. W​hile travelers inside Chicago's O'Hare International Airport were told to shelter in place during a tornado warning, dozens of planes sat on the taxiway with passengers inside. N​umerous passengers expressed their discontent on social media over being stuck inside planes while the National Weather Service, which had also taken shelter, warned of a tornado threat to the city. T​he derecho began in eastern Iowa late Monday afternoon. Wind gusts up to 97 mph were clocked in Dubuque County.F​rom there, the thunderstorm complex produced a 105-mph gust in northwest Illinois near Camp Grove, then pushed into Chicago late in the evening where a 75-mph gust was measured at O'Hare Airport.T​he storms have downed numerous trees and knocked out power. More than 238,000 homes and businesses were without power in Illinois as of about 10:30 a.m. EDT Tuesday, according to poweroutage.us. About 125,000 outages were being reported across Indiana.A​ stretch of Interstate 55 in Will County, Illinois, remained closed due to downed power lines, the state's Department of Transportation reported.

Derecho tosses trucks, pulls power lines down on I-55 outside of Chicago– Part of Interstate 55 on the outskirts of Chicago remained shut down Tuesday morning after powerful winds from a derecho overturned several semi-trucks and toppled power lines onto cars.Forecasters with the National Weather Service issued a Particularly Dangerous Situation statement with Tornado Warnings on Monday night as the derecho ripped through the Midwest from Iowa to Indiana. Hurricane-force gusts of up to 105 mph were recorded in parts of Illinois. Portions of Interstate 55 are shut down between Channahon and Lorenzo due to downed power lines. Video from the Chicago and Midwest Storm chasers taken in Will County showed extensive damage in Elwood and Channahon, where an industrial area suffered major damage. Tractor trailers were flipped, and many vehicles were overturned along I-55. FOX Weather Storm Tracker Brandon Copic was on the ground Monday night after the severe storms toppled power lines on I-55, causing a pileup crash. "There were seven vehicles actually trapped in between high tension power lines, including a couple of trucks that crashed into each other because they hit the power line, as well as multiple vehicles that also impacted each other," Copic said. He said a metal high-tension power line crumpled under the powerful winds. On Tuesday morning, the scene was still chaotic across the interstate. The cleanup could take a while as crews work to untangle power lines and remove multiple tractor-trailers. The Chicago Fire Department said it received numerous reports of transformers and power lines being down Monday night. Power outages across Illinois were near 240,000 customers Tuesday morning. Thousands in Kansas, Iowa, Indiana and Michigan were also without power on Tuesday morning. The National Weather Service in Chicago said it will take several days to complete damage surveys in the Chicagoland area.

Powerful derecho blasts through Midwest, leaving a trail of destruction – videos - A powerful and deadly derecho swept across the Midwest on July 15, 2024, leaving an 800-km (500-mile) path of destruction from Iowa to Indiana. The storm, with wind gusts reaching up to 169 km/h (105 mph), caused extensive damage, power outages affecting hundreds of thousands, and at least one fatality. The National Weather Service issued numerous Tornado Warnings as the storm downed trees, tore roofs off buildings, and disrupted travel across the region. The thunderstorms, packing wind gusts equivalent to a Category 2 hurricane, caused extensive damage, power outages, and at least one fatality. The derecho, a long-lived thunderstorm complex, unleashed wind gusts reaching up to 169 km/h (105 mph), snapping trees, tearing roofs off buildings, and downing power lines. Hundreds of thousands of residents were left without power across the affected states. The storm claimed the life of a 44-year-old woman in Cedar Lake, Indiana, when a tree fell onto her home. Another individual was injured by a falling tree and taken to a hospital, according to the Chicago Fire Department. Numerous calls for downed power lines, fallen trees, and collapsed porches were reported. In Chicago, the National Weather Service (NWS) office issued 16 Tornado Warnings on July 15, the third-highest number in a single day. At one point, NWS staff had to seek shelter from the storm themselves. Tornadoes were reported at both Chicago Midway International Airport (MDW) and Chicago O’Hare International Airport (ORD), where wind gusts reached up to 121 km/h (75 mph). The severe weather impacted multiple states:

• Wind gusts of 169 km/h (105 mph) were recorded in Camp Grove, Illinois, and 163 km/h (101 mph) in Davis Junction.
• Hurricane-force wind gusts were reported in Lena, Illinois, and Aurora, Iowa.
• Numerous power outages and tree damage were reported from South Bend and Fort Wayne, Indiana, with wind gusts of 114 km/h (71 mph) in Athens.
• Indianapolis experienced wind gusts up to 93 km/h (58 mph).

In Washington County, Illinois, officials issued an imminent dam failure warning amid a flash flood, prompting evacuations. The National Weather Service estimated 76 to 127 mm (3 to 5 inches) of rain fell in Nashville, Illinois, within 24 hours. Travelers at O’Hare International Airport were instructed to shelter in place, with numerous planes grounded during the tornado warning. A stretch of Interstate 55 in Will County, Illinois, was closed due to downed power lines, resulting in multiple vehicle collisions. The NWS in Chicago plans to conduct damage surveys in nearly 30 areas to confirm whether tornadoes were responsible for the widespread damage. Extensive power outages persist, with more than 238 000 homes and businesses in Illinois and 125 000 in Indiana affected.

A dam fails after rain, wind, tornadoes pound the Midwest. The Chicago area is cleaning up (AP) — Hundreds of people in a southern Illinois town were ordered to evacuate Tuesday as water rolled over the top of a dam, just one perilous result of severe weather that raged through Midwest overnight with relentless rain and tornadoes and hit the Chicago area especially hard. Hundreds of thousands of people lost power, and even weather forecasters had to briefly scramble for safety. A woman in Indiana died after a tree fell on a home Monday night. “We kind of heard a gust of wind that came up quick and we decided — my uncle decided — that we’d all go into the basement,” said Mihajlo Jevdosic, 16, in Norridge, Illinois, where residents swapped stories of the storm and watched a crew clear a tree. “And as we went in the basement, we heard a big thump and the tree fell on the house.” Water overtopped a dam near Nashville, Illinois, sending first responders out to ensure everyone got out safely. There were no reports of injuries in the community of 3,000, southeast of St. Louis, but a woman reported water up to her waist in her home, said Alex Haglund, a spokesperson for the Washington County Emergency Management Agency. Officials had earlier said about 300 people were in the evacuation zone near the city reservoir. The rest of Nashville was not in imminent danger from the dam failure, but flash flooding on roads created worries about water rescues. Haglund said a portion of the dam failed early Tuesday, but it wasn’t clear if it was a break or an overtopping. A “secondary failure” happened later in the morning when the dam was overtopped. The National Weather Service said 5-7 inches (12.7-17.8 centimeters) of rain fell over an eight-hour period. Additional heavy rain was in the forecast. A long stretch of Interstate 64 in the Nashville area was closed. As the storms swept the Chicago area late Monday, employees at a suburban weather service office had to pass coverage duties to a Michigan post for five minutes. The agency reported wind speeds in the region as high as 75 mph (120 kph). “We did have an area of rotation,” meteorologist Zachary Yack said, referring to extreme rotating wall clouds. “And it kind of developed right near our office here in Romeoville, Illinois. ... We went and took cover. We have a storm shelter here.” A 44-year-old woman died in Cedar Lake, Indiana, in the southern fringes of the Chicago area, the Lake County coroner's office said. The weather service confirmed a tornado hit Des Moines, Iowa, as storms rolled through Monday afternoon and into the night. Police responded to calls about utility poles that snapped in two. The storms then moved east into northern Illinois and the Chicago area, which saw tornado warnings and drenching rain. The weather service said it was dispatching teams in Illinois and Indiana to check 29 paths of damage for evidence that tornadoes caused them. Carol Gillette said she heard a crash that sounded “like a bomb” as trees smashed cars and houses in Oswego, Illinois. “I haven’t called the insurance yet. I don’t know where to start," Gillette told WBBM-TV. "This is the first time I’ve ever been through this. I’m just happy we are all alive.” By noon, 215,000 customers lacked power in Illinois, though the number was much higher hours earlier, according to PowerOutage.us. The Chicago Fire Department said on the social media site X that there was only one serious injury in the nation's third-largest city, a person who was hurt when a tree fell on a car. O'Hare International Airport reported 81 flight cancellations as of Tuesday morning, and Midway International Airport reported eight. The storms also cut power to thousands in Ohio and Pennsylvania and caused damage to property, trees and power lines. No injuries were reported.m

Imminent dam failure, flash flooding prompt evacuations in southern Illinois — Emergency officials said residents in some neighborhoods of Nashville, Illinois, are being urged to evacuate after a nearby dam is imminently failing. Recent heavy rains triggered Flash Flood Warnings in the region Tuesday morning, and flood waters overtopped the dam behind the Nashville City Reservoir. "Attention the failure of the Nashville dam is imminent," Washington County (Illinois) emergency managers wrote, adding a map shading an area at risk of flooding downstream. "If you are in the grey box, you need to evacuate now!" Two shelters have been opened in the area. The National Weather Service in St. Louis estimates 2-5 inches of rain had fallen in heavy thunderstorms so far Tuesday with radar estimates pushing 8 inches around Nashville. An additional 1-3 inches of rain are possible. In addition to the dam failure, numerous roads are closed around Nashville due to flash flooding, with sewers backing up, according to National Weather Service storm reports. An 11-mile stretch of Interstate 64 is closed through that area. "Washington County is experiencing an emergency flood situation," Washington County EM said. "Stay at home unless evacuations are needed."

Evacuations underway in Southern Illinois as dam failure imminent | Latest Weather Clips | FOX Weather (news video) Emergency managers in Washington County, Illinois are evacuating the area around the Nashville Dam, as failure is imminent. A secondary failure was reported with flood water overtopping the dam.

A dam fails in Illinois, threatening small town, after heavy rains sweep the Midwest | PBS News (AP) — Thunderstorms with heavy rains and tornadoes rattled the Chicago area and elsewhere in the Midwest, overtopping a dam Tuesday in southern Illinois, cutting power to hundreds of thousands, and even sending weather forecasters scrambling for safety. A woman in Indiana died after a tree fell onto a home. Water overtopped a dam near Nashville, Illinois, sending first responders to the flooded area to make sure everyone got out safely, officials said. There were no reports of injuries in the community of 3,000 southeast of St. Louis, but crews were sent to a home where a woman reported water up to her waist, said Alex Haglund, a spokesperson for the Washington County Emergency Management Agency. WATCH: Proposed rules would protect workers from heat, top weather-related cause of death in U.S. Officials had earlier said about 300 people were in the evacuation zone near the Nashville City Reservoir. The rest of the town was not in imminent danger of flooding from the dam break, but flash flooding on roads created worries about water rescues. “Those are incredibly dangerous right now,” Haglund said. A shelter was set up at a church. The National Weather Service said 5-7 inches (12.7-27.8 centimeters) of rain fell over an eight-hour period. Additional heavy rain was in the forecast. An 11-mile stretch of Interstate 64 in the Nashville area was closed because of flooding. As the storms swept through the Chicago area late Monday, employees at a suburban National Weather Service office had to pass coverage duties to a northern Michigan post for five minutes. The agency reported wind speeds in the region as high as 75 mph (120 kph). “We did have an area of rotation,” meteorologist Zachary Yack said, referring to extreme rotating wall clouds. “And it kind of developed right near our office here in Romeoville, Illinois. … We went and took cover. We have a storm shelter here.” A 44-year-old woman died in Cedar Lake, Indiana, in the southern fringes of the Chicago area, the Lake County coroner’s office said. The weather service confirmed a tornado hit Des Moines, Iowa, as storms rolled through Monday afternoon and into the night. Police responded to calls about utility poles that snapped in two. The storms then moved east into northern Illinois and the Chicago area, which saw tornado warnings and drenching rain. Tornadoes were reported along the line of storms that moved through the city, according to the weather service, though staff were still trying to confirm them Tuesday. By 10:30 a.m., 233,000 customers lacked power in Illinois, though the number was much higher hours earlier, according to PowerOutage.us. The Chicago Fire Department said on the social media site X that there was only one serious injury in the nation’s third-largest city, a person who was hurt when a tree fell on a car. In Joliet, Illinois, 35 miles (56 kilometers) southwest of Chicago, authorities said many roads were blocked by trees. Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport reported 81 flight cancellations as of Tuesday morning, and Midway International Airport reported eight cancellations. The storms also cut power to thousands in Ohio and Pennsylvania and caused damage to property, trees and power lines. No injuries were reported.

NWS confirms 25 tornadoes in the Chicago area on July 14 and 15 - The Watcherswatchers.news Strong thunderstorms that wreaked havoc across the Chicago area on July 14 and 15, 2024, spawned at least 25 tornadoes, left one person dead, and over 430 000 customers without power.A derecho tracked through northern Illinois and northwest Indiana during the evening of Monday, July 15, producing widespread straight-line wind damage and numerous embedded tornadoes. The southwestern suburbs felt the most severe impact, where numerous tornadoes were confirmed by the National Weather Service (NWS).An EF-2 tornado with wind speeds exceeding 177 km/h (110 mph) caused substantial damage from Channahon to Matteson. Multiple EF-1 tornadoes, with winds up to 161 km/h (100 mph), were reported across various neighborhoods, including Joliet, Elwood, and West Town in Chicago.The storms caused one fatality in Cedar Lake, Indiana, where a confirmed EF-1 tornado caused a tree branch to fall on a house, killing a 44-year-old woman. As of the evening (LT) of July 17, a total of 19 tornadoes have been confirmed in the NWS Chicago forecast area from the derecho event. The confirmed tornadoes include:

• EF-2 from Channahon to Matteson
• EF-1 from Yorkville to Naperville
• EF-1 on Chicago’s Near West Side to the Loop
• EF-1 from Chicago Lawn to West Englewood
• EF-1 from Cedar Lake to Crown Point
• EF-0 in Justice
• EF-0 from Crest Hill to Lockport
• EF-0 in southern Winnebago County
• EF-0 in Byron
• EF-0 in Davis Junction
• EF-0 from Sugar Grove to North Aurora

Two additional EF-0 tornadoes were confirmed in Chicago on July 14, making it a rare occurrence of multiple tornadoes touching down within the city limits on consecutive days.In total, NWS confirmed 25 tornadoes on July 14 and 15 but the number is still expected to rise. Surveys and damage investigation are ongoing and will take several days to weeks to complete.ComEd has deployed over 3 000 utility workers to restore power to more than 430 000 customers, receiving additional support from more than 1 000 workers from other utilities, including 300 from Canada. The utility company aims to restore 99% of power by July 19. The storms also caused significant disruptions to transportation and infrastructure. Downed trees and power lines led to the closure of Interstate 55 between U.S. 6 and River Road in Channahon.The closure affected logistics and trucking operations, with numerous semis overturned and high-tension power lines down across the roadway.

Severe storms, at least 4 tornadoes hit New York State - Severe storms and at least four tornadoes hit New York state on July 17, 2024, causing significant destruction, killing at least one person, and leaving over 110 000 homes without power. NBC affiliate WPTZ of Plattsburgh used radar imagery to confirm tornado touchdowns in Rome, 27 km (17 miles) northwest of Utica, as well as two in Hamilton County and one in Warren County to the east. Authorities confirmed that one person died in the village of Canastota in Madison County, west of Rome. More than 110 000 customers were without power across New York on July 17 morning. Governor Kathy Hochul declared a state of emergency across the state on July 16. She stated that central New York, Mohawk Valley, and the Southern Tier had been hardest hit. Governor Hochul spoke with both the mayor of Rome, Jeffrey Lanigan, and Oneida County Executive Anthony J. Picente Jr. I have declared a State of Emergency for all of New York. We are deploying assistance for localities as severe weather continues to move across the state. Continue to monitor your local weather forecasts & give first responders room to do their work. Lanigan remarked at a news conference, “It looks like a war zone.” More storms and heavy rain were forecast for July 17, and a local state of emergency was in effect for Canastota and Lenox until 08:00 on July 17. One street in Canastota is under a mandatory evacuation order. A team from the National Weather Service (NWS) office in Binghamton was to inspect the Rome and surrounding areas on July 17. Winds of almost 129 km/h (80 mph) were strong enough in Rome to overturn vehicles, smash windshields, destroy the roof and tower of a church, and move a huge B-52 bomber several feet off its platform outside the entrance of the decommissioned Griffiss Air Force Base. The extreme weather in the internal Northeast came 24 hours after the Midwest was also hit by storms and multiple tornadoes.

California Faces a Brutal Wildfire Season, With More Land Burned to Date Than in Recent Years | Smithsonian -The state’s fires have burned more than 11 times as much land so far in 2024 than they had at this point last year, according to the most recent numbers from Cal Fire. California is in the midst of a particularly intense wildfire season that has so far burned almost a quarter-million acres across the state, the equivalent of more than 370 square miles of land.“We are not just in a fire season, but we are in a fire year,” Joe Tyler, director of the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (Cal Fire), said at a news conference, per Janie Har and Rio Yamat of the Associated Press (AP). “Our winds and the recent heat wave have exacerbated the issue, consuming thousands of acres. So, we need to be extra cautious.”Tyler added that more than 95 percent of wildfires are caused by humans and urged caution when engaging in activities that can cause sparks, reports NPR’s Ayana Archie.This year, 3,986 wildfires have ignited in the Golden State as of July 18, burning 242,039 acres, according to Cal Fire. The total land burned dwarfs the 21,541 acres burned by 3,323 fires at this point last year, and it is more than double the average area burned at this point over the previous five years. (Prior to July 10, the average burned area for the previous five years was only 38,593 acres—more than five times lower than this year’s total at that time.) More than 128 structures have been damaged or destroyed, according to a statement from the office of California’s governor.Fires have killed one California resident so far this year, in Mendocino County. The person, found in a burned home last week, has not yet been identified but is believed to be a 66-year-old woman reported missing by her family, per the AP.After heavy rainfall the past two years, vegetation in California has grown rapidly—and now, the current warm and dry summer conditions have turned these grasses into parched tinder, fueling fires, writes the New York Times’ Jill Cowan and Jonathan Wolfe. And according to the Western Fire Chiefs Association, “when relative humidity decreases, fire behavior increases, because fine fuels like grass and pine needles become drier quickly.”Numerous locations in California, including Palmdale, Redding and Las Trampas, have set records this year for the hottest temperatures ever recorded in the area. Palmdale and Lancaster also experienced anunprecedented six straight days with temperatures that reached or eclipsed 110 degrees Fahrenheit earlier this month.Last weekend, several fires raged across Kern County north of Los Angeles. In a statement released Sunday, the Kern County Fire Department said that three fires had burned 3,412 acres, 9,590 acres and 20,000 acres respectively. The fires largely remained uncontained at the time. More than 1,000 people were evacuated, and a home and outbuilding were destroyed, according to the statement.According to the most recent data from Cal Fire, the largest blaze currently burning is the Lake Fire in Santa Barbara County, which has scorched 38,664 acres so far and is 63 percent contained. A fire’s containment is the percentage of its perimeter controlled by firefighters.Other large, ongoing wildfires include the Shelly Fire in Siskiyou County, which started July 3 and has burned more than 15,000 acres, as well as the Basin Fire in Fresno County, which has burned more than 14,000 acres since June 26. Eleven active fires across the state have burned more than 1,000 acres each.Breathing in wildfire smoke can be harmful to human health, causing problems including reduced lung function, bronchitis, aggravated asthma, heart attack and stroke.The California governor’s office said in its statement that the state aims to bring on more firefighters and has added to its fleet of aircraft, drones and bases for firefighting in response to the increasing wildfire risk.

California wildfire burns outside 'Bigfoot capital of the world' -- A 3,702-acre wildfire is burning with no containment in California’s Humboldt County, about 8 miles south of Willow Creek, a small mountain town known as the “Bigfoot capital of the world,” officials said. The Hill Fire ignited Monday night in Six Rivers National Forest and has triggered a series of evacuations as it tears through parched vegetation in steep remote terrain, according to the U.S. Forest Service. Willow Creek’s downtown, which sits at the junction of state Route 299 (Trinity River National Scenic Highway) and state Route 96 (Bigfoot Scenic Highway), is still several miles from the fire. The town’s Big Foot Museum, with a collection of Sasquatch artifacts and photographs, is a popular attraction. “We feel safe in downtown Willow Creek now,” said Terry Castner, who volunteers at the Big Foot and Willow Creek-China Flat museums, which are housed in the same building. “I had a light dusting of ash on my car this morning. Yesterday, the sky was brown with smoke. Today, looking west toward Eureka — toward the coast — the sky looks clear. Looking east, you can see where the smoke is hanging in there. The smoke is way up high, so I can’t even smell it, which is fantastic.”Hill Fire activity is expected to pick up this afternoon as temperatures rise. After a marathon heat wave baked California in early July, the state finally saw a few days of below-normal temperatures at the start of this week. But Wednesday marks the start of the temperatures going back up, and California is expected to see another heat wave this weekend and into next week. (Get the California heat wave forecast on SFGATE.) The Forest Service said there’s potential for “a rapid rate of spread and extreme fire behavior.”Multiple structures are threatened by flames, and the Forest Service said firefighters will be focused on protecting homes “along Route 1 and within the Friday Ridge communities.”

Progress on Wickiup and Round Mountain wildfires still at about 250 acres total; both 5% contained - – A pair of 2-day-old wildfires north of Wickiup Reservoir and on Round Mountain were held to about 250 acres total Friday as crews made good progress and brought each to 5% containment, officials said. In an update Friday night, officials said firefighters on the Wickiup Fire made good progress completing a preliminary dozer line around the fire perimter. Meanwhile, aircraft supported crews & engines on the Round Mountain Fire suppression efforts. Firefighters are continuing suppression efforts on the Round Mountain and Wickiup Fires burning on the Deschutes National Forest. The Round Mountain and Wickiup Fires are burning approximately seven miles northwest of La Pine and just north of Wickiup Reservoir. The Central Oregon Type 3 Team is managing both incidents. Yesterday afternoon, fire activity increased on the Wickiup Fire. Firefighters, dozers and aerial resources were used to slow fire spread. The Wickiup Fire is currently mapped at 200 acres and is 0% contained. Today, firefighters are continuing to make good progress with primary dozer line in places where the fire experienced growth. They are working on the ground and in coordination with aerial resources to cool down hot spots. Fire activity also increased on the Round Mountain Fire yesterday afternoon. The Round Mountain Fire is currently mapped at 50 acres and is 0% contained. Firefighters are continuing to prioritize keeping the fire as small as possible while also protecting the Round Mountain Lookout and associated infrastructure. Resources on scene of both incidents include 1 Type 2 initial attack crew, 1 Type 2 crew, 11 engines, 3 dozers, 2 skidgeons, 2 water tenders, and overhead resources. Firefighters on the ground continue to be supported by aerial resources including air attack, single engine air tankers (SEATs), large airtankers and Type 1 helicopters. Both fires are under investigation. The Deschutes County Sheriff’s Office has issued Level 3 (Go Now), Level 2 (Get Set) and Level 1 (Be Ready) evacuation notices north of Wickiup Reservoir. An interactive map of evacuations is available here:

• Level 3 (Go Now): National Forest area north of Wickiup, Forest Service Road 4262 and Forest Service Road 4380 and south of Forest Service Road 42 (South Century Drive)
• Level 2 (Be Set): National Forest area between Road 4380 and the Deschutes River including Bull Bend and Wyeth Campgrounds and private inholdings along the west side of the river at Haner Park
• Level 1 (Be Ready): Haner Park subdivision east of the Deschutes River

Forest Service Roads 4380, 4260 and 4262 in the vicinity of the Wickiup Fire, are currently barricaded for public and firefighter safety during active fire suppression activities. Forest Service Roads 42 and 43 remain open; however, the public is asked to use caution as firefighters and firefighting traffic are present. The Gull Point and South Twin Lakes areas remain open. Bull Bend and Wyeth Campgrounds and Tenino Boat Launch are currently closed. North Twin Lake Campground remains closed and is being used to support firefighting operations. The incident management team is in coordination with local officials in the event of potential fire growth.

Wildfire near Spences Bridge sparks ‘tactical evacuations,’ new fires flare in Kootenays -- Scores of properties near Spences Bridge, B.C., have been evacuated as an out-of-control wildfire surges amid scorching temperatures and ongoing drought. It comes following a 24-hour period in which the wildfire situation has worsened considerably across the province. As of Thursday afternoon, there were 244 active wildfires in British Columbia, 97 of which started in the last 24 hours. Fifty-four per cent of those fires were listed as out of control. Of greatest concern is the Shetland Creek fire south of Spences Bridge, which has ballooned to more than 5,000 hectares (50 square kilometres) in size after merging with the nearby Teit Creek fire. At a morning briefing, B.C. Emergency Management Minister Bowinn Ma said the fire grew “quickly and considerably” overnight. “This wildfire has proven to be extremely volatile and everyone in the area should leave immediately if they have not already done so,” she said. “We are on the precipice of a very challenging 72 hours,” added BC Wildfire Service director of provincial operations Cliff Chapman. “We saw lightning come through yesterday that’s now being replaced with 30-plus-degree weather over the course of the next 24 hours. And we anticipate more lightning.” The Thompson-Nicola Regional District has issued evacuation orders for 85 properties in the Venables Valley area north of Spences Bridge, a community about 65 kilometres northwest of Merritt. Another 170 properties have been told to be ready to leave on a moment’s notice. Residents are being directed to an emergency services reception centre in Cache Creek. “The last update I received, there was no impact to structures although they are threatened, and we’ll be focusing our efforts through our incident management team and ground resources trying to protect those structures today,” Chapman said.

47 new Alberta wildfires in last day as province swelters under heat | CBC News -Alberta Wildfire is reporting another 47 wildfire starts in the past 24 hours as 150 wildfires burn across the province. Of the fires burning within Alberta's wildfire protection areas, 51 are burning out of control, 34 are being held and 42 are under control. Much of Alberta remains under a heat warning as daytime highs are expected to reach between 28 and 36 C over the next seven to nine days. The fire danger is similarly elevated in many areas of the province, the majority falling under a very high danger with pockets of extreme fire danger. In a social media post, Alberta Wildfire says most new wildfires in July have been caused by lightning. Around half of wildfires this year are suspected to have been caused by human activity and 30 per cent by lightning. About 20 per cent remain under investigation. In the Wood Buffalo region, Janvier and Janvier First Nation 194 residents were put on evacuation alert Wednesday evening due to the threat of due to nearby wildfires, LWF-136 and LWF-142. Residents are being told to be ready to evacuate on short notice. The largest wildfire in the province covers 82,709 hectares, one of two out-of-control wildfires in the Cattail Lake Complex. The wildfire is about seven kilometres northeast of industrial facilities, 63 kilometres northeast of Fort McKay and 68 kilometres northeast of Fort McMurray. On Tuesday, the fire spread northward. The largest wildfire in the Semo complex in the High Level Forest Area of northern Alberta is out of control and estimated at around 50,000 hectares in size. Due to low-laying smoke, Alberta Wildfire says access to the wildfire was limited Tuesday. Heavy equipment is working to build containment lines toward the northeast. About 200 firefighters and support staff, 10 helicopters and 43 pieces of heavy equipment are working the complex. The fire is about nine kilometres from Highway 58 and 30 kilometres northwest of the community of Garden River. Residents of the community who have been evacuated for seven days or more are now able to apply for one-time emergency evacuation payments. An evacuation order was issued a week ago by the Little Red River Cree Nation, which has declared a state of local emergency. A fire ban is in place for the province's entire forest protection area&.#160;

Wildfire smoke from Canada to sweep into N.Y. in coming days: What to know - — Smoke billowing from wildfires in western Canada will sweep into New York over the coming days, according to Tyler Roys, a senior meteorologist with AccuWeather.The smoke will flow into New York behind an approaching cold front forecast to bring severe thunderstorms to New York City.Smoke is predicted to move in on Thursday and could persist through Friday before clearing out of the area, Roys said.The inbound coverage could produce poor conditions for those with respiratory issues. Roys advises those prone to such problems take precautions against the particles.“We’re not going to see anything like last year with the smoke,” said Roys. “If anything, it will make very pretty sunrises and sunsets. During the day, it might add a tint, it might make the sun a little bit hazy.”Aries Dela Cruz, the executive director of public information for New York City Emergency Management, put out a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, shedding light on the development.“There’s no Air Quality Health Alert expected tomorrow, but wildfire smoke is moving into Western, Central and Northern NYS Wednesday afternoon & evening,” the post reads. “Hourly particulate matter readings will fluctuate but 24-hour forecast expected to remain below advisory levels.”Another post by Dela Cruz reports that Emergency Management will continue to monitor the smoke and will send out alerts through Notify NYC, the city’s official emergency notification system, if conditions worsen.Initially, there was low confidence that such smoke would find its way to the state. However, as AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bob Larson foresaw, the wind direction and trajectory are coming together to push the smoke down into New York.Canada is currently experiencing “an abundance of wildfires.” Larson notes that the amount of these blazes exceeds the usual amount of wildfires experienced in Canada.

Car camping and fighting wildfires: what are the new US climate jobs? -- Did you ever imagine spending a year restoring paths along the Appalachian Trail? Developing community gardens on a Caribbean island? Or helping neighbors electrify their homes? This summer, thousands of people in the US joined the American Climate Corps (ACC), a new federal program that connects young people with jobs in conservation, climate adaptation and green energy. Inspired by the New Deal-era Civilian Conservation Corps, the Climate Corps aims to train young people “to tackle climate challenges, from deploying clean energy to protecting our public lands and waters, making our communities more resilient”, said Maggie Thomas, special assistant for climate to Joe Biden. Climate Corps jobs run the gamut from installing solar panels to fighting wildfires.The Appalachian Mountain Club, for example, is looking for corps members tomaintain remote campsites and trails along the Appalachian Trail in New England (pay is $15/hour). In San Jose, California, a non-profit is hiring tree care specialists to prune and plant trees and other greenery (pay: $17.65). The Lawn Busters program in Kirtland, Ohio, will pay high school graduates $12.94 an hour to convert turf lawns into pollinator-friendly yards. Most of the jobs are short-term, ranging from three months to a year.Thomas and several state climate corps administrators said the program provides valuable training that will help prepare young people for careers in the green transition and other in-demand fields.“So many young people say that tackling climate change is one of the top issues for them,” she said. “They want to spend their lives making a difference for their future, for their children’s future, for our collective future. And this is a way to do that.”There are currently 350 job listings in 37 states as well as Washington DC and Puerto Rico. Thirteen states – Arizona, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, North Carolina, Utah, Vermont and Washington – have state-level climate corps programs that coordinate with ACC.They range from mapping trees in Cleveland to teaching nutrition classes on the Puerto Rican island of Culebra. Some jobs provide on-site housing, while others, like habitat restoration with the Montana Conservation Corps involve “car-camping and remote backcountry settings”.Most jobs require a high school diploma, with some positions asking for some level of college experience. Some positions are only open to US citizens, nationals or permanent residents.“We really believe that this is an opportunity for every American,” said Thomas, who noted that many of the jobs – like installing solar panels, performing energy audits and educating consumers about clean energy rebates – aim to prepare a new generation of workers for the green economy. “It doesn’t matter what zip code you come from, what part of the country you grew up in, if you want a career in the clean energy economy, this is the place for you to start.”Thomas said that in June, 9,000 people had already been placed in jobs, with an additional 11,000 expected to find work in the corps in the program’s first year. Most positions pay at least local minimum wage.Some programs offer a living stipend and assistance with food and transportation, along with roughly $7,000 educational fund that corps members can use toward student loans or future schooling expenses.

Intense, long-duration heatwave affecting SE Europe - Southern and eastern Europe are an intense heatwave since early July, with temperatures forecast to remain high for at least another two weeks. The most intense heat was felt across the Balkan Peninsula and eastern Europe, where daily temperatures exceeded 40 °C (104 °F) in many areas. The Mediterranean Sea has also seen unprecedented warmth, with sea temperatures reaching 30 °C (86 °F) in some areas. Global weather models predict that temperatures will remain significantly above average throughout July in southern and eastern Europe. The concern is not just the heat the region is currently enduring, but the severe thunderstorms with powerful winds and heavy rains that usually follow. The Balkan peninsula is particularly affected, with record-breaking temperatures expected this week. A dynamic weather pattern that began in July has shifted into a stable, prolonged heatwave across much of the continent. Temperatures have soared into the upper 30s (above 95 °F) in many regions, with recent recordings in Romania, Serbia, Albania, Bulgaria, Bosnia, North Macedonia, and Greece exceeding 40 °C (104 °F). Serbia has experienced historic heat, with Vršac in northeast Serbia recording a minimum temperature of 30.6 °C (87.1 °F) on Saturday and 31.2 °C (88.2 °F) on July 14, potentially the highest minimum temperatures ever recorded in the country. Belgrade, the capital of Serbia, reported minimum temperatures of 27.3 °C (81.1 °F) on July 13 and 27.5 °C (81.5 °F) on July 14, nearing record highs for the lowest daily temperatures. High night temperatures have also been reported in Croatia, Bosnia, Romania, and North Macedonia. In Greece, some stations noted that minimum temperatures did not fall below 30 °C (86 °F) over the weekend. This weather pattern is expected to persist until early next week, with a strengthening heat dome from the Mediterranean region into Eastern Europe. An absolute national record for sea temperature was measured in Dubrovnik on Monday, July 15. At 17:00, an official measurement recorded a sea temperature of 29.7 °C (85.4 °F) in the city, marking the highest ever recorded in the official history of measurements in Croatia. This new record surpasses the previous one held by Rab, where a sea temperature of 29.5 °C (85.1 °F) was measured in 2015. maximum temperature anomalies se europe july 12 to 19 2024 Image credit: Climabook July is typically the hottest month for the region, but current temperatures and forecasts for the next 7-10 days indicate that they will be around 10 °C (18 °F) above average in many regions. Daytime temperatures across the Balkans have widely reached the high 30s to low 40s °C (over 104 °F), significantly above the seasonal average, with night-time temperatures remaining well into the 20s °C (mid-70s °F). In urban areas like Athens, Greece, night-time temperatures are forecasted to stay at or above 30 °C (86 °F) due to the urban heat island effect, caused by heat-absorbing materials, reduced vegetation, and human activities, intensifies urban temperatures, increasing health risks and energy demands.

Severe storms hit Belarus, causing multiple fatalities and extensive damage - A powerful storm swept through Belarus on July 14, 2024, causing significant damage, destroying major power lines, and claiming 6 lives. The storms continued through the rest of the week, affecting primarily the capital of Minsk and surrounding regions on July 18. Over 2 000 towns and villages have been left without power due to strong winds, which have uprooted trees and torn off roofs of houses. Many cities in the south of the country still have no power. A series of severe weather events have ravaged Belarus over the past 5 days, resulting in significant damage and loss of life. 6 people, including two children, died during a heavy storm that swept through much of the country on July 14. Additionally, Minsk has been struck by a major flood caused by heavy rains, bringing the city’s traffic to a standstill and disrupting daily life. The emergencies ministry in Belarus reported on July 17, that 330 cities and villages were damaged by the storm on July 14, primarily in the Brest, Gomel, and Mogilev regions in the south of the country. The worst-hit city, Mazyr, home to a major oil refinery, remains without electricity in some areas. “We have never encountered anything like this when the energy system lost all the power generating and supplying all lines in the Mazyr region and surrounding areas. The wind was abnormally strong and this led to the destruction of high-voltage lines,” said Deputy Prime Minister Anatoly Sivak. The south of Belarus is still dealing with the consequences of last week's storm – around 300 towns and villages still have power disruptions. Now, Minsk is under storm and flooded. People are blocked in public transport, some buildings are damaged. pic.twitter.com/zcvfteIJ9K The severe weather continued as heavy rains hit the Minsk region on July 18, turning streets of the capital into rushing streams. Many buildings and properties were flooded, and drivers found themselves trapped in their cars. Authorities have urged residents to stay home for safety.

Extremely heavy rains hit Seoul, South Korea - Seoul and its surrounding metropolitan area were severely impacted by heavy rainfall on July 19, 2024, with up to 634 mm (25 inches) recorded over the past two days. The torrential downpour was the heaviest of this rainy season, with more heavy rain expected starting July 20. According to the Korea Meteorological Agency (KMA), Seoul experienced over 50 mm (2 inches) of rainfall per hour this morning. Pyeongtaek recorded 88.5 mm (3.5 inches), Paju 69.8 mm (2.75 inches), and Yeoncheon-gun 58.5 mm (2.3 inches), severely limiting visibility. Generally, rainfall over 30 mm (1.2 inches) per hour is considered heavy, and over 50 mm (2 inches) is considered extremely heavy. Panmunjeom in Paju recorded 634 mm (25 inches) over two days, nearly half of Paju’s average annual rainfall of 1 295.8 mm (51 inches). Incheon saw 328.5 mm (13 inches), and Seoul 208 mm (8.2 inches). The heavy rains caused rivers in Seoul to turn murky and look like swamps. The deluge was caused by a seasonal rain front stretching narrowly across the region. An irregularly developed mid-sized low-pressure system on this front, combined with a low jet stream from the southwest, brought in substantial water vapor. The torrential rains have caused significant damage throughout the capital, flooding roads and homes and forcing evacuations in low-lying areas. Flood warnings were issued at eight points along the Imjin and Hantan rivers. Six hundred twenty-eight households, comprising 901 people, were temporarily evacuated from 36 municipalities and districts in eight provinces.

Severe cold snap devastates South African crops - - Unusually cold temperatures have severely impacted agriculture in South Africa this month, particularly in Limpopo Province. On July 12, temperatures plunged to -6 °C (21.2 °F) just before daybreak in parts of the Bushveld, resulting in widespread crop damage. Low-lying orchards and fields in the Limpopo River Valley have sustained significant losses, with vegetable fields collapsing and citrus fruits freezing. The Citrus Growers’ Association has advised growers not to pack any frozen fruit, as it will be of unmarketable quality by the time it reaches overseas markets. Farmers are reportedly distraught over the extensive damage to their crops. Deidré Carter, CEO of the regional agricultural lobby group Agri Limpopo, described the damage to vegetable crops as catastrophic. “We have been in contact with many farmers who are absolutely distraught.” Potato farmers, tomato farmers, peppers, avocado, citrus, berries, macadamias, and other cash crop producers have reported significant losses due to the unprecedented cold snap, leading to fears of a substantial reduction in the availability of these essential commodities,” Carter stated. Potato farmers have reported a loss amounting to R470 million (almost 24 million euros). Potatoes South Africa is still assessing the full extent of the damage. FP Coetzee, information manager at the organization, indicated that approximately 2 840 hectares (7 020 acres) were affected by frost damage. The estimated losses amount to 32% of the crop, equivalent to four million 10 kg (22 lb) bags. In comparison, in 2023, the national harvest was eight million bags below the long-term average, and the current frost damage represents 50% of that shortfall. Coetzee mentioned that the potential increase in the supply of smaller potatoes in the short term could pressure markets, with an expected six-week gap in volumes. “It’s still too early to make a final verdict on the true extent of the damage; some of the potatoes might yet recover. Additionally, there’s an expectation that the cold isn’t over, which would impact the recovery of damaged potatoes,” he added. Vegetable farmer Tinus Venter of Janlouis Boerdery reported losing around 50% of his crops due to repeated night frosts but mentioned that some colleagues lost up to 100% of their crops. “In the 24 years we’ve been on the farm, it’s the coldest I’ve ever experienced,” Venter, who farms north of the Soutpansberg mountain range near Botswana, said. On July 7, 2024, we had a lot of damage, then again on July 9, and July 10 – usually, we get a single morning of frost per year. Having frost on five or six consecutive days is completely unusual.” Venter described the damage as astronomical and warned that vegetables, especially potatoes, would be unaffordable by the end of the month.

Lightning claims 38 lives in 24 hours, Uttar Pradesh - Lightning claimed 38 lives within 24 hours in Uttar Pradesh, India on July 10, 2024. The incident was followed by 10 deaths and 20 injuries caused by lightning strikes on July 9 in the same state. Most of the deaths took place in Pratapgarh (11), followed by Sultanpur (7), and Chandauli (6). Just a day before, on July 9, lightning strikes claimed 10 lives and left 20 injured in the same state in different regions of Prayagraj, Kaushambi, and Pratapgarh districts. On both occasions, the victims were outside engaged in farming or fishing-related activities. Local authorities have urged citizens to follow precautionary safety measures during the rains. The deaths were reported while the state is struggling with the flooding that comes with the monsoon in the region. Videos of the rescue operations in the deluge by the Indian army surfaced on social media. The lightning was accompanied by the monsoon rains affecting the region leaving several injured and hospitalized along with the fatalities. The district of Chandauli received heavy rainfall accompanied by lightning between 16:00 and 18:00, while other districts faced similar circumstances. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) predicts more widespread rainfall over the state of Uttar Pradesh over the next five days.

4 missing, 420 evacuated after severe mudflow strikes Osh, causing widespread damage, Kyrgyzstan - Severe floods and mudflows struck the city of Osh, Kyrgyzstan, and the surrounding suburbs on July 14, 2024, causing widespread damage and prompting authorities to declare a state of emergency. At least 4 people are missing and roughly 420 were forced to evacuate. A severe mudflows struck Toloikon, and Ozgur villages in Kyrgyzstan at 14:00 LT, and the city of Osh at around 19:30 LT, after heavy rains battered the region. The mudflow rushed into the city from the mountains carrying away 7 cars along the Aravan-Ak-Buura canal in Toloikon rural municipality. 146 houses and 5 recreation zones suffered severe damage, along with 8 pedestrian crossings in Osh, according to local authorities. According to preliminary information, 134 houses were flooded, the walls of 17 houses were destroyed, and 15 cars were damaged in Ozgur village. The mudflow also affected the Borubai-Ata recreation zone. At least 4 people, who were at a recreation zone in Toloikon, are missing. Approximately 420 people were evacuated, according to the Ministry of Emergency Situations. A state of emergency was declared in Osh after the incident until things could go back to normal.

Powerful storm and flooding in eastern Afghanistan claim over 40 lives, destroy 400 homes - 4 videos - A powerful storm brought heavy rain to eastern Afghanistan on July 15, 2024, causing severe flooding in the Nangarhar Province and the surrounding regions. At least 40 lives were lost and 400 homes destroyed. The disaster affected the provincial capital of Jalalabad, Sukh Rod District, and their neighboring areas in the province bordering Pakistan, according to the provincial director for information and culture Qurishi Badlon. Public Health Ministry spokesman Sharafat Zaman Amar confirmed that 40 people were killed in the storm on July 15 and that 347 others had been taken to the regional hospital in Nangarhar from Jalalabad, the capital of Nangarhar province, and nearby districts. About 400 houses and 60 electricity poles were destroyed across Nangarhar, said provincial spokesman Sediqullah Quraishi. Power was cut in many areas and there was limited communications in Jalalabad city. The damage is still being assessed, he added. All the casualties were reported in eastern Nangarhar, said Sharaf Zaman, spokesman of the interim Public Health Ministry. The figure may rise, he added. Health services are being provided to the affected people, and the interim administration is coordinating with international organizations to prevent the spread of diseases, according to the spokesman.

A year’s worth of rain in one day, massive floods hit central China - Severe, widespread flooding hit parts of central China on July 15 and 16, 2024, as record-breaking torrential rains, with up to a year’s worth in 24 hours, claimed at least four lives. An orange alert was issued in Central China’s Henan province at 09:00 LT on July 16 after heavy rains battered the region, causing severe flooding. The rains affected the area stretching from the Sichuan Basin to the Huanghuai region. The cities of Nanyang, Zhoukou, and Xuchang were hit by record-breaking torrential rains. Fifteen provinces were placed under full emergency alert amid heightened risks of severe flooding. Nanyang, Henan, and Xiangyang, Hubei were hit by record-breaking rainstorms, with rainfall reaching 410 mm (16.1 inches) in 12 hours and 111.7 mm (4.39 inches) in 1 hour, causing flooding in many rivers. The state-run news agency Xinhua reported a maximum precipitation of 638.5 mm (25.1 inches) in Sheqi County on July 15. Other weather stations in the county reported up to 711.6 mm (28 inches) in 24 hours — almost a year worth of rain for the area. According to a report by the Global Times, 418.6 mm (16.5 inches) of rain was recorded in the county by China’s National Meteorological Center (NMC), breaking the previous local precipitation record for the region. Four people were killed on July 14 when their car was swept into a river by flood currents in the city of Suizhou in Hubei, according to the local fire department. Suizhou issued a red rainstorm alert, the most severe level on a four-tier warning system, and recorded up to 150 mm (5.9 inches) of rain on July 14, according to state broadcaster CCTV. The city of Xiangyang in Hubei issued as many as seven red rainstorm warnings on July 14, with water levels of 268 reservoirs breaching the upper limit. The China Meteorological Administration activated rainstorm emergency response Level 2, the second-highest alert in a four-tier system, on July 16 for multiple provinces, including Henan, eastern Shandong, and southwestern Sichuan. The southwestern, middle, and eastern parts of Henan were at the center of the flooding on July 15, with cities including Nanyang, Zhoukou, Zhumadian, Luohe, Xuchang, Kaifeng, and Shangqiu hit by extremely heavy rainfall. Henan Meteorological Service forecasted heavy rains between the morning of July 16 and 17 for the Huanghuai region and parts of Xinxiang city. In Nanyang City, Level I emergency response for flood control was activated at 08:00 LT on July 16 as heavy rains battered the city from July 14 to 15, according to the province’s flood control and drought relief headquarters. According to NMC, nine locations in Henan ranked among the top 10 places with the largest volume of precipitation across China between 09:00 on July 15 and 08:00 on July 16. As of 22:00 LT on July 15, 382 teams had been dispatched for drainage and rescue work, and 6 417 residents had been relocated. Heavy rains will continue in the southern and eastern parts of Henan on July 16 and 17, and the cumulative precipitation in the southwestern part is expected to be extremely heavy, with a notable increase in intensity at night, said Tang Xiaojing, a meteorological analyst from weather.com.cn. The website also forecasted a storm for July 17.

Large-scale landslide in China’s Zigui County, Hubei Province - A large-scale landslide occurred in Zigui County, Yichang, Hubei Province, on the morning of July 17, 2024, causing significant damage to infrastructure and agriculture. The landslide affected a 1.2 km (0.75 miles) long stretch of Wugao Road and 24 ha (60 acres ) of citrus orchards. The event is part of a series of landslides triggered by recent heavy rains and flooding across the region. Footage of the landslide in Jiajiadian Village, Guizhou Town, Zigui County, surfaced on social media, showing soil sliding down a mountain, breaking the road into sections, and approaching two residential houses. Authorities confirmed no casualties, stating the area was uninhabited at the time, and no vehicles were on the affected road.

Rising sea levels spell danger for shorebirds such as the oystercatcher -Research by James Cook University in Australia involving Radboud University scientists shows that rising sea levels will drastically reduce the number of shorebirds in Europe. The number of oystercatchers on three Waddeneilanden will decline an additional 56% to 79% over the next 100 years due to sea level rise.The study is published in Nature Climate Change.Even in a low greenhouse emission scenario that limits global warming below 2°, it was projected all three studied oystercatcher populations would be reduced by more than half. This is because the sites where the oystercatchers nest are already flooding due to sea level rise.Lead researcher Martijn van de Pol of James Cook University stated, "Oystercatchers typically nest on the lower parts of the saltmarsh: These are overgrown areas of land directly bordering the sea. Historically, these nests would rarely get flooded, but now they do on a regular basis. As a result, there are fewer offspring being born and population numbersare dropping."The oystercatchers' ability to adapt is not sufficient to cope with this rate of sea level rise.The researchers analyzed four decades of field data and saw that the quality of habitat for shorebirds is declining due to increased nest flooding. Ecologist Eelke Jongejans of Radboud University, who was involved in the study, said, "Thus far, scientists have typically assumed coastal wildlife will mainly be affected by sea level rise due to habitat loss, but our study shows that strong impacts already occur. Even before their habitat is drastically reduced."Flooding washes away nests more often and in a few years oystercatchers will have even less room to build their nests.The research also shows that gas extraction under the Waddenzee can worsen the consequences of sea level rise for birds. Jongejans said, "We saw in our models that the greatest impact of gas extraction only takes place after the extraction has stopped. So, for oystercatchers, among others, it is important that no more gas is extracted from the Waddenzee."

Warming Baltic Sea: a red flag for global oceans "The Baltic Sea is basically a small bathtub compared to the global oceans," said doctoral researcher Norman Gobeler, an expert on marine heat waves."We are seeing the first effects of the temperature increase."The Baltic Sea is really important for understanding what climate change is doing worldwide," said Williamson, who is part of a joint research project with Helsinki and Stockholm universities.Many coastal areas across the globe—coral reefs, estuaries, and mangrove forests –- are among the planet's richest biodiversity hotspots, providing vital nurseries and habitats for hundreds of marine species.They are also the most vulnerable to the kind of changes observed in the Baltic.Up to now, oceans have been our most important natural ally in coping with global warming.Over decades, they have consistently absorbed 90 percent of the heat generated by human-induced climate change, and about a quarter of the carbon dioxide humanity injects into the atmosphere.But scientists say there is a lot we do not know about the capacity of oceans to continue serving as "sinks", or sponges, for our carbon pollution, Norkko noted."There has been a lot of emphasis on terrestrial forests' role as carbon sinks," he said. "Our coasts and oceans have been ignored. The question is, how much further the oceans can take of all these stressors?"Recent findings from the Finnish research station suggest coastal ecosystems in the Baltic Sea could start emitting greenhouse gases –- CO₂ and methane –- instead of absorbing them, driven by both rising temperatures and environmental pollution.The ecological condition of many coastal areas has deteriorated due to the runoff from forestry and nitrogen and phosphorus-rich fertilizer used in agriculture, as well as untreated waste water.The overabundance of chemical nutrients leads to harmful algae blooms, and vast "dead zones" depleted of oxygen, a process known as eutrophication."A degraded ecosystem will be a net carbon source," Norkko said. "Our biggest concern is that what should be an efficient carbon sink could become a carbon source."

Saharan dust reaches stunning levels in Atlantic. Here's what that means for hurricane season -- First, Europe that was socked in by record levels of dust from the Sahara Desert in Africa. The Atlantic appears to have now taken the lead, with dust levels not seen in years across parts of the basin. Satellite measurements indicate intensive plumes of dust, called the Saharan Air Layer, across much of the eastern Atlantic. Traces of dust have even made the more than 4,000-mile journey to Florida and the Gulf Coast. Sunrises and sunsets have been enhanced across the Sunshine State as the particles scatter typical colors, allowing hues of orange, yellow and red to dominate the sky. Aside from the vibrant colors, something not falling from the sky is precipitation. According to NOAA, the air surrounding the SAL has about 50% less moisture than the typical atmosphere. This means the presence of the SAL can be detrimental to cloud formation and thunderstorm activity. Significant plumes of dust and dry air are common during the first months of the hurricane season and usually persist through mid-August. Dust is indicated in brown in this satellite image taken July 13, 2024. NOAA estimates that more than 180 million tons of dust leave the African continent every year, reducing thunderstorm activity and tropical cyclone formation. Dry air and Saharan dust are perennial wild cards in tropical weather outlooks, as meteorology has yet to develop sufficient methods to forecast plumes weeks and months in advance. Years with significant dust often experience reduced cyclone activity. Seasons with minimal dust typically rank at the top echelons of activity, thanks to increased moisture availability for tropical systems and warmer water temperatures. The current season is a bit unusual as water temperatures started on the warm side across much of the basin, negating any minor effects from a dust storm. Warm waters and limited exposure to dry air helped with the formations of Alberto, Beryl and Chris during late June and early July. Since Beryl’s historic trek through the Caribbean and into the Gulf of Mexico, the basin has been relatively quiet, a likely product of the increase in dry air. The trend for limited activity in the Atlantic basin is expected to continue for the foreseeable future, meaning that the next cyclone formation may be weeks away.

Axial volcano shows signs of activity after years of dormancy - Axial Seamount, a submarine volcano located on the Juan de Fuca Ridge — about 482 km (300 miles) west of Astoria, Oregon, has recently shown signals of resumed volcanic activity. Researchers have been tracking the volcano’s cyclical inflation and deflation since its last eruption in 2015. The rate of inflation at Axial has almost doubled in the last 6 months and seismicity is picking up. Recent rises in inflation and seismic activity signal the possibility of a future eruption, prompting forecasts and an ongoing study funded by the National Science Foundation. Known eruptions at this volcano took place in 1998, 2011 and 2015. Located about 482 km (300 miles) west of Astoria, Oregon, the submarine Axial Seamount is the most active volcano in the Pacific Northwest region. F Axial Seamount has been undergoing a cyclical process of inflation and deflation since its last eruption in 2015, which has been closely monitored using autonomous and cabled Bottom Pressure Recorders (BPRs). By March of 2024, the seamount was 90 – 95% reinflated to its pre-eruption levels, according to Chadwick, and was getting close to a crucial threshold that might cause another eruption. The inflation rate which originally surged post the 2015 eruption has progressively decreased until recently. However, from October 2023 there has been a noticeable increase in the pace of elevation, which is now estimated at 5 – 6 cm (2 – 2.5 inches) per year—still lower than historical averages but indicating a potential awakening. The rise in inflation is accompanied by an increase in seismic activity with many earthquakes rocking the region recently.

Continuous moderate gas and steam plume rising from White Island volcano, New Zealand - Continuous moderate gas and steam plum emissions have been rising from White Island volcano since July 10, 2024. Although the Volcanic Alert Level remains at Level 2, eruptions can still occur with little or no warning. The Volcanic Alert Level remains at Level 2 (moderate to heightened unrest) and the Aviation Color Code remains Yellow. The plume is being emitted from an enlarged vent on the crater floor, GeoNet said in a bulletin posted on July 16. Minor amounts of ash were observed intermittently in the vent, but this is not considered to constitute new eruptive activity. Analysis of data collected during a gas flight on July 12 indicated decreased levels of magmatic gas compared to the previous observations on June 10. “Although gas emission is lower it remains at moderate levels compared to what was observed before May,” GeoNet volcanologists said. The crater lake has almost disappeared with only a few small puddles remaining while gas and steam are now exiting from an enlarged vent on the crater floor. This image captured on Friday, July 12, 2024, shows a plume of gas and steam emitting from a vent. Minor amounts of brown non-eruptive ash can also be seen near the vent at the base of the plume. “We did not observe any eruptions, but a minor amount of ash was intermittently seen in the vent. This is likely caused by some erosion inside the vent due to the vigorous degassing… No ash was observed in the plume outside of the crater.” GeoNet said these kinds of changes in the vent area and the plume have been seen many times in the past and represent normal processes at the volcano. Although the Volcanic Alert Level remains at Level 2, eruptions can still occur with little or no warning. While Volcanic Alert Level 2 is mostly associated with volcanic unrest hazards (including discharge of steam and hot volcanic gases, earthquakes, landslides, and hydrothermal activity), the potential for eruption hazards remains. A powerful explosive eruption on December 9, 2019, claimed the lives of 22 people (visitors and tourist guides) of nearly 50 who were on the volcano when the eruption took place, at 14:11 LT.

Rare Sudden Stratospheric Warming event detected over Antarctica -- A rare Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event has been detected in the stratosphere above the Antarctic region over the past week. Forecast models predict it will start to filter down through the atmosphere later this month. SSW refers to an abrupt increase in air temperature high above either of Earth’s polar regions, typically on the magnitude of tens of degrees Celsius in a few days. This warming occurs in a layer of the atmosphere called the stratosphere, roughly 30 to 40 km (19 – 25 miles) above the surface. While SSW events do not affect the weather patterns near the ground immediately, they can filter down through the atmosphere and influence tropospheric weather in the weeks after. “If an SSW event does make its way down to the troposphere, it can cause the tropospheric polar vortex to weaken, which allows cold polar air to drift further away from Antarctica (or the Arctic if in the Northern Hemisphere) and spread towards the mid-latitudes,” said Ashleigh Madden of WeatherZone. SSW events can cause the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) to shift into a negative phase, which could impact the Australian winter, bringing more cold fronts and low-pressure systems to southern Australia while increasing the amount of rainfall and snow in the southeastern and southwestern regions of the continent. It would also bring stronger winds to the southern regions of the country while causing reduced rainfall in parts of Eastern Australia, according to Madden. SSW events are rare in the Southern Hemisphere, with only a few known events in the past decades, but they can be powerful and are known to have an effect on the entire globe, said Andrej Flis of Severe Weather Europe. “These stratospheric warming events pack a lot of energy and can affect the entire hemisphere. We have had several cases where that happened in the Northern Hemisphere, affecting the winter weather patterns,” Flis said. The main reason is a weakened Polar Vortex, which creates a weak jet stream pattern, making an easy escape for icy cold air from the polar regions. “It is possible that a large-scale event like Stratospheric Warming can cause a prolonged high-pressure anomaly over the South Pole. With several weeks to months of time, some effects of the SSW event could perhaps manifest in the Northern Hemisphere,” Flis said. This is because the northern and southern stratosphere are connected via Brewer-Dobson circulation. Flis pointed to a study that investigated a significant stratospheric warming event in 2019 over the South Pole. The study identified an ionospheric anomaly over the United States following this SSW, with electron charge anomalies of 40-80% observed in the ionosphere. In contrast, Europe experienced a reversed change, as the energy wave from the warming event had already reached the Northern Hemisphere.The study found both positive and negative disturbances in the thermospheric Oxygen/Nitrogen ratio and Total Electron Content (TEC) over the United States and Europe.

Major X1.2 solar flare erupts from AR 3738 - A major solar flare measuring X1.2 erupted from Active Region 3738 at 02:34 UTC on July 14, 2024. The event started at 02:23 and ended at 02:48 UTC. A 10cm Radio Burst (tenflare), lasting 4 minutes and with a peak flux of 380 sfu, was associated with this event. This indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. It can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications. Type II and IV radio bursts, strong indicators of CME, were not detected during this event. Radio signatures were forecast to be most degraded over East Asia, Australia, and the Pacific Ocean at the time of the flare. This is the 54^th solar flare of Solar Cycle 25. The last one was X1.4 on June 1.

Powerful X1.9 solar flare erupts, producing strong CME - A powerful solar flare measuring X1.9 erupted from departing Active Region 3738 at 13:26 UTC on July 16, 2024. The event started at 13:11 and ended at 13:36 UTC. This event was associated with a Type II Radio Emission, with an estimated velocity of 516 km/s, suggesting a coronal mass ejection (CME) was produced. A Type IV Radio Emission was registered beginning at 13:38 UTC. Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the Sun and are typically associated with strong CMEs and solar radiation storms. Additionally, a 10cm Radio Burst, lasting 8 minutes and with a peak flux of 550 sfu, was registered between 13:18 and 13:26 UTC. This indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. It can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications. Earth-directed CME is not expected due to the location of this region in the far southwestern region of the Sun. Available coronagraph imagery confirms it. Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over Africa, Europe, the Atlantic Ocean, and parts of North and South America at the time of the flare.

Study reveals major impacts of G5 - Extreme geomagnetic storm on satellite operations in May 2024 - Researchers from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) investigated the significant impacts and scientific insights from the May 2024 G5 – Extreme geomagnetic storm and how it impacted satellite operations and atmospheric activities.

• Driven by powerful X-class flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) this geomagnetic storm impacted Earth’s magnetosphere, particularly affecting satellite maneuvers in Low Earth Orbit (LEO).
• Thousands of satellites began to maneuver en masse in response to the sudden increase in atmospheric density after CMEs impacted Earth.
• By analyzing data on induced currents, atmospheric density changes, and satellite orbit adjustments, researchers are trying to understand the consequences of major geomagnetic storms.

The historic geomagnetic storm in May 2024 provided researchers with a wealth of data and crucial information on how severe geomagnetic storms affect the world and technology. This storm, the most severe since 2003, shows the necessity of understanding geomagnetic disturbances, particularly their effects on satellite drag and atmospheric changes. This data is essential for better preparing for future storms and protecting the growing number of satellites in Low Earth Orbit(LEO). Between May 7 and 12, Earth experienced periods of severe and extreme geomagnetic storming, triggered by a series of X-class flares and several Earth-bound CMEs from an active sunspot region AR3664. On May 10, at approximately 12:30 UTC, the first of these CMEs reached Earth, releasing a plethora of charged particles that interacted with Earth’s magnetic field — which resulted in spectacular auroras as far south as 21 degrees latitude and also caused extensive interruptions to satellite operations and communications. The information garnered during the storm gave researchers precise measurements regarding atmospheric density change and how it influenced satellite drag. Satellites in LEO faced much higher resistance leading to orbital degradation. This prompted many satellites, especially major constellations such as Starlink to make periodic orbit modifications to maintain their locations and avoid collisions. During the geomagnetic storm in May, using the NRLMSISE-00 empirical model, researchers observed large density enhancements in the thermosphere. Before the storm hit there were slight enhancement in density due to the temperature rising during the day, but after the storm hit the density increased with up to a 6x elevation, which resulted in increased satellite drag and predicted inaccuracies in satellite positions. “In the May 2023 storm, about 1 000 of the nearly 10 000 active payloads in LEO appear to be maneuvering during the quiet period leading up to the storm,” the researchers said. “After the storm hits, with some offset to account for the time it takes for drag decay to accumulate, thousands of satellites begin to maneuver en masse in response to the sudden increase in atmospheric density. For comparison, there was no discernable change in maneuver activity in LEO during the October 2003 Halloween storm.” Most of the May 2024 maneuver activity is attributable to the Starlink constellation, which performs autonomous orbit maintenance and thus responds quickly to perturbing events. Onboard orbit maintenance will become more common as other proliferated LEO constellations are established. The researchers found a huge rise in orbital decay rates for most tracked objects, with some suffering up to a fourfold acceleration in decay. For example, SATCAT 43180 (KANOPUS-V 3) observed its decay rate increase from 38 to 180 m/day (125 to 590 ft/day). “The storm represented a serious challenge for the existing conjunction assessment infrastructure as it produced large, unpredictable perturbations on satellite trajectories in LEO,” the researchers stated. Geomagnetic storms can impair and destroy both terrestrial and space-based infrastructure. Large induced currents along electricity transmission lines have already resulted in extensive outages, while similar currents can cause satellite electronics to fail. The ionosphere’s fluctuation also impacts GNSS signal transmission, putting navigation systems at risk. Additionally, increased radiation during these storms can be harmful to astronauts and aeroplane passengers near the poles. During geomagnetic storms, Joule heating and particle precipitation cause profound changes in the upper atmospheric structure. Charged particles from CMEs interact with Earth’s magnetosphere, depositing energy and raising currents in the ionosphere. This causes heating and expansion in the thermosphere, considerably increasing the overall mass density of the atmosphere at fixed heights. Understanding these consequences is critical for satellite operators in the face of rising space traffic and debris, highlighting the necessity for effective collision avoidance systems when Solar Cycle 25 reaches its peak in 2024/25.

Pipeline opponents are poised for Summit permit challenges • Iowa Capital Dispatch -Several groups that oppose a recently approved carbon dioxide pipeline network in Iowa plan to launch challenges to that approval in the coming days that will likely be decided — months or more than a year from now — in court. Summit Carbon Solutions wants to build a sprawling pipeline system in five states that would transport captured carbon dioxide from dozens of ethanol plants to North Dakota for underground storage. More than 1,000 miles of pipe would be laid in Iowa, of the overall 2,500 miles. Last month the Iowa Utilities Commission — then known as the Iowa Utilities Board — said it would issue a permit for Summit’s initial proposal in Iowa with some conditions, including that no construction could begin until Summit has secured approval for the project in the Dakotas. The deadline to ask the commission to reconsider that final order is Monday. That is the first step to challenge it. Four groups have indicated to the Iowa Capital Dispatch that they will make reconsideration requests, and they represent a coalition of unlikely allies with sometimes fierce ideological differences on other topics. They plan to challenge aspects of the commission’s decision with arguments that are nuanced by their differing priorities. “Our allies are our allies,” said state Rep. Charley Thomson, a Charles City attorney who is part of a group of Republican legislators who have challenged Summit’s permit application and supported legislation that would impede it. “I’m not going to pick a fight with the Sierra Club because we differ on some other issues. We are going to march together.” The legislators, the Sierra Club of Iowa, a large group of affected landowners represented by attorney Brian Jorde, and seven counties affected by the project have indicated they will seek reconsiderations. The counties were the first to file a request, on Friday. A primary argument that the groups plan to make is that Summit’s project should not be eligible for eminent domain, a government-sanctioned procedure by which Summit can force landowners to allow its pipeline to be built and operated on their properties. Summit does not take outright ownership of the land but has a right to use it indefinitely as long as the pipeline is still operating. The company had sought eminent domain for about a quarter of its initial 688-mile route in Iowa. The IUC decided “the service to be provided by Summit Carbon will promote the public convenience and necessity,” which is required to obtain a pipeline permit and the power of eminent domain. Thomson said the commission’s 507-page order was “disturbingly weighted to find what they set out to find.” “It comes across as a justification for a decision that was made prior to any of the hearings,” he said this week at a meeting hosted by the Free Soil Foundation in Coon Rapids. “It was, in effect, grabbing evidence that would support them and ignoring evidence that would not.” Opponents of the project have long griped that the outcome was predetermined because of the political influence of those who would benefit from it. That suspicion was bolstered last year when Gov. Kim Reynolds appointed a new chairperson to the three-person commission, the former chairperson abruptly resigned, and Summit’s permit process was accelerated.The company had hoped to start construction in 2024, but setbacks in the Dakotas have delayed its plans.

PA Gov. Shapiro Signs Carbon Capture Bill into Law – Now Act 87 -- Marcellus Drilling News - Environmental radicals have struck out a second time, and they’re pretty bitter about it. We’re talking about Senate Bill (SB) 831, the Carbon Capture & Sequestration (CCS) Act. Last week, a strong bipartisan majority in the PA legislature ignored the radicals that had asked Democrat legislators to block the bill, passing the bill and sending it to the governor’s desk (see PA Legislature Rejects Radical Antis, Passes CCS Bill, Sends to Gov). Having failed with Democrat legislators, the radicals hung their hopes on convincing Gov. Shapiro to veto the bill. That didn’t happen either. He signed SB 831 into law on Wednesday. It’s now officially known as Act 87.

Digihost crypto mining increases emissions as residents voice concerns — Neighbors are pushing for the state Department of Environmental Conservation to take action against a cryptocurrency mining facility in Niagara County over air emissions and noise pollution that have also drawn concerns from environmental advocates. Digihost, a blockchain mining company, is operating a “behind the meter” facility, meaning they are using a power plant to source energy for the computers and fans needed to mine Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. The North Tonawanda plant — which was previously operated as a peaker plant for use during periods of high demand on New York’s electrical grid has increased its use to near constant operation. The situation has also exposed what some advocates are concerned is an arguable loophole in the state's regulatory process that has allowed the Niagara County facility to operate for more than three years while their application to renew their permit is pending with the state Department of Environmental Conservation. Mandy DeRoche, an attorney with Earthjustice, an environmental nonprofit organization, said the plant previously operated only a few weeks a year to cover electricity demands during heat waves and winter storms, but its use for cryptocurrency mining has jumped exponentially. In the first quarter of this year, the plant operated 84 out of 90 days, using gas fuel. In 2021, prior to the crypto mining operation taking over, the plant operated eight days that year. Carbon dioxide emissions during the first three months of this year are nearly as much as total emissions for 2022 and 2023 combined, according to data provided by DeRoche. Advocates have expressed concern with local air pollution with the significant increase in fossil fuel-based power generation, as well as the impact the emissions could have in reaching statewide goals to reduce air pollution. The Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act, passed in 2019, mandates an 85 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels by 2050. “North Tonawanda is already a disadvantaged community with a disproportionate amount of pollution,” DeRoche said. “This should not be happening under the CLCPA, and we’re obviously very concerned about the climate impacts when the rate of emissions increases so substantially in such a short amount of time.” Crypto mining is based on the concept of blockchains, or web-based digital ledgers in which participants can make and record transactions. Blockchain technology is best-known for the growth of cryptocurrency, or money-like digital tokens that people can use as credits to buy or sell items online. Bitcoin is the predominant cryptocurrency but there are several others. Crypto miners earn money by creating new Bitcoins or other tokens by running highly complex and exotic math formulas, or algorithms, that cryptocurrency users employ to keep track of the currency. The miners who successfully run the formulas get their own currency, which can be exchanged for cash or used to buy things on a blockchain ledger.

Donald Trump's running mate JD Vance is a renewable energy, climate change critic -- Days after a failed assassination attempt, Donald Trump picked Ohio senator JD Vance as his running mate and Vice Presidential nominee. The former Venture Capitalist though, is a known critic of climate change and renewable energy. Interestingly, his home state Ohio has embraced solar power and clean-tech manufacturing. Critics now believe that if elected Vice President, Vance will push for a boost in oil and gas production at the expense of emission-free energy. Ohio ranks seventh among states in the US for natural gas production. Vance has called for expanding production at the Marcellus and Utica shale formations, which are significant output areas. However, Vance has done a U-turn when it comes to his views on climate change. He acknowledged the phenomena of global warming in 2020 saying "we have a climate problem in our society", blaming the emissions in China for the same, while simultaneously lamenting the slow adoption of carbon-free power in the US. While he said back then that solar energy is driving big improvements, it can't meet all of the US' energy needs. By 2022, his views had changed. In an interview in July that year on the Clay Travis and Buck Sexton show, he said there was no climate crisis, dissing the "ridiculous ugly windmills all over Ohio farms that do not produce enough energy to run a cell phone." “The whole EV thing is a scam,” Vance said in the July 2022 radio interview, days before passage of the Inflation Reduction Act. “If you plug it into your wall, do these people think there are Keebler elves back there making energy in the wall? It comes, of course, from fossil fuels.” He also took potshots on Twitter (Now X), saying democrats were pushing a "green energy fantasy" in the US, while China is building coal-fired power plants. "All of this “bring American manufacturing back” from the Democrats is fake unless we stop the green energy fantasy. Solar panels can’t power a modern manufacturing economy. That’s why the Chinese are building coal power plants, something Tim Ryan’s donors won’t let America do," he wrote back then. While Vance turned from a climate change believer to a critic, his home state of Ohio bettered 45 other states of the country in installation of solar generating capacity, according to data from the Solar Industries Association. The state deployed 1.3 GW of solar power in 2023, a 1,230% increase over 2022 and another 20 utility-scale projects are already in the works. Electric Vehicles and battery manufacturing plants are helping Ohio offset jobs lost in production of conventional gas-burning cars. The Workhorse Group Inc., along with battery manufacturer Ultium Cells LLC, who supplies to General Motors, employs around 1,700 workers at its Ohio facility. But Vance's U-turn is no surprise, considering the oil and gas industry has helped fund his political career. He has received more than $3,52,000 in contributions from the oil & gas industry since 2019, as per campaign finance data compiled by the nonprofit group OpenSecrets. Privately held oil trading company Vitol Inc., refiner Marathon Petroleum Corp., and oil producer Artex Oil Co. feature among his top 20 contributors. “This choice signals that a potential Trump-Vance administration would likely double down on fossil fuel expansion at a time when we desperately need to transition to clean energy,” said Cassidy DiPaola, a spokesperson for the Make Polluters Pay campaign at the advocacy group Fossil Free Media.

Vance's criticism of clean energy, climate change grew as Ohio embraced it -- Donald Trump’s newly picked running mate, Senator JD Vance, has grown more critical of renewable electricity and climate change even as his home state of Ohio embraced solar power and clean-tech manufacturing. It’s a contrast that intensified as Vance was campaigning for the Senate — and Trump’s endorsement — in 2022. Now, the former venture capitalist’s approach is drawing fresh scrutiny from critics who say Vance would be a relentless booster of oil and gas at the expense of emission-free energy if he’s elected vice president. “Donald Trump has chosen an avowed climate denier as his running mate who has used his time in Congress to vote against the environment and shill for fossil fuel corporations at every opportunity,” said Lena Moffitt, executive director of the environmental advocacy group Evergreen Action. Conservatives see in Vance someone who will fight for fossil fuel workers. Ohio ranks seventh among states for natural gas production — which took off as energy companies tapped the prolific Marcellus and Utica shale formations — and Vance has called for expanding production there. “Millions of energy workers have been sacrificed at the altar of the green movement, and to have one of their own — someone who knows the struggles of small towns targeted by powerful DC green groups — breathes hope into these struggling communities,” said Daniel Turner, founder of Power the Future, a group that advocates for rural energy communities. Vance’s pivot on climate and energy issues has been swift. In 2020, he was unequivocal in acknowledging global warming. We “of course have a climate problem in our society,” he told a January 2020 conference in Ohio. At the time, Vance blamed “unrestrained emissions in China” for driving the phenomenon, though he also lamented the slow adoption of carbon-free power in the US. Solar energy is driving big improvements, he said, but it can’t meet all US energy needs.

Nantucket Beaches Closed After Wind Turbine Blade Fail Scatters "Fiberglass Shards" --Nantucket residents are watching their pristine beaches transform into "waste dumps" filled with floating debris and sharp fiberglass shards. This prompted officials to close beaches this week after a massive offshore wind turbine experienced a catastrophic failure.Nantucket beaches turning into a waste dump from broke fiber glass wind turbine blades. Feds shut down the entire Vineyard Wind project.Beaches are closed.Huge problems if the other 1400 turbines are built like junk.pic.twitter.com/WYWmRubDqv Local paper Nantucket Current reports debris from a broken Vineyard Wind turbine blade washed ashore across southern Nantucket beaches, stretching from Madaket out to Nobadeer, on Tuesday. "The water is closed to swimming on all south shore beaches, due to large floating debris and sharp fiberglass shards," Nantucket Harbormaster Sheila Lucey said, adding, "You can walk on the beaches, however we strongly recommend you wear footwear due to sharp, fiberglass shards and debris on the beaches."Late Tuesday, the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said Vineyard Wind's offshore "operations are shut down until further notice." Vineyard Wind disclosed Monday that one of its massive turbines was damaged in an "offshore incident" on Saturday night. The nature of the incident was not disclosed. "The blade experienced a breakage approximately 20 meters out from the root," Vineyard Wind spokesman Craig Gilvarg said, adding, "The turbine was in its commissioning phase and was still undergoing testing. Nearly the entirety of the blade remains affixed to the turbine and has not fallen into the water."Nantucket Current posted a series of images that show local area beaches were scattered with debris. The good news is that the local paper reported the debris as "non-toxic fiberglass" and "not hazardous to people or the environment." However, the debris littering the beaches is an eyesore and a reminder of the flaws in unreliable green energy technologies.

Texas grid in crisis: What to know about Beryl power outages --More than a quarter million people in and around Houston remained without power as of Monday after Hurricane Beryl hit the city last week — a crisis that has sparked political pressure from both sides of the aisle and drawn new attention to Texas’s troubled grid. Gov. Greg Abbott (R) is demanding answers from the state’s biggest power utility over what went wrong in the storm, which led to blackouts for nearly 3 million people across Southeast Texas for days. He has given CenterPoint until the end of the month to offer an explanation amid a broad lack of response from the utility.“The communications component of CenterPoint is unacceptable,” Abbott told reporters on Sunday. “Corrections are coming, whether they like it or not.”Democratic lawmakers have called for scrutiny of the utility as well. Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Texas), sent a letter to the Department of Justice on Friday asking for a federal investigation of CenterPoint, which she argued has left hundreds of thousands of Houstonians in the dark after several weather disasters this year.The outages in Beryl’s wake — and the political response — also represented something bigger: the return of the Texas grid as a political live wire as climate change driven by the burning of fossil fuels turns the weather increasingly dangerous. Houston’s brutal summer saw heat indexes — the metric of how hot it feels in the shade — reach above 104 on Monday, with the penetrating Texas sun pushing that subjective temperature up by an additional 10 – 15 degrees.That heat is bearing down on a population with a high degree of chronic medical problems, medical debt and food insecurity; limited worker protections; and — for hundreds of thousands — still no electricity. While about 90 percent of Harris County residents who lost power since last Monday have since had their power switched back on, a little under a quarter million households remain without power, according to CenterPoint — or, in human terms, the equivalent of the entire city of Sacramento, Calif.Lack of electricity means no air conditioning, which is the chief technical innovation that drove Houston’s late-20th century boom, and that makes the city habitable for residents who live there now.Without air conditioning, residents slept in cars, or drove around the region trying to find a hotel with vacancies — provided that they could afford a hotel, or had a car. (About 7 percent of Harris County residents, or 334,000, don’t have access to an automobile.) Without air conditioning, residents slept in cars, or drove around the region trying to find a hotel with vacancies — provided that they could afford a hotel, or had a car. (About 7 percent of Harris County residents, or 334,000, don’t have access to an automobile.)That means emergency rooms are seeing twice as many hospital admissions as usual this year, and three times as many people as would typically be suffering from heat-related illness, according to The Associated Press. Then there is food: No power also means no refrigeration, and — for those with electric appliances, or even many gas ones — no way to cook.

Artificial intelligence needs so much power it's overwhelming the electrical grid -The artificial intelligence boom has had such a profound effect on big tech companies that their energy consumption, and with it their carbon emissions, have surged. The spectacular success of large language models such as ChatGPT has helped fuel this growth in energy demand. At 2.9 watt-hours per ChatGPT request, AI queries require about 10 times the electricity of traditional Google queries, according to the Electric Power Research Institute, a nonprofit research firm. Emerging AI capabilities such as audio and video generation are likely to add to this energy demand.The energy needs of AI are shifting the calculus of energy companies. They’re now exploring previously untenable options, such as restarting a nuclear reactor at the Three Mile Island power plant that has been dormant since the infamous disaster in 1979.Data centers have had continuous growth for decades, but the magnitude of growth in the still-young era of large language models has been exceptional. AI requires a lot more computational and data storage resources than the pre-AI rate of data center growth could provide.Thanks to AI, the electrical grid – in many places already near its capacity or prone to stability challenges – is experiencing more pressure than before. There is also a substantial lag between computing growth and grid growth. Data centers take one to two years to build, while adding new power to the grid requires over four years.As a recent report from the Electric Power Research Institute lays out, just 15 statescontain 80% of the data centers in the U.S.. Some states – such as Virginia, home to Data Center Alley – astonishingly have over 25% of their electricity consumed by data centers. There are similar trends of clustered data center growth in other parts of the world. For example, Ireland has become a data center nation.

Millions of US low-income households face power shutoffs amid deadly heat- Millions of low-income households are at risk of having their power disconnected this summer, exacerbating the risk of deadly heat as the climate crisis drives up temperatures.A new report by the Centre for Energy Poverty and Climate (EPC) and the National Energy Assistance Directors Association (Neada) found that almost half of Americans live in states without rules restricting disconnections for unpaid or overdue energy bills during potentially deadly heatwaves, forcing some low-income families to choose between cooling their homes and paying rent.It comes as large swaths of the midwest and eastern US remain under heat advisories amid sweltering temperatures and humidity caused by a slow-moving area of high pressure, which brought misery across the west and south-west last week.Summer shut-off protections are mandated by only 19 states and Washington DC, leaving about 203 million people in the US across 31 states susceptible to being disconnected if they are unable to afford their energy bills.This includes 45 million of the most financially vulnerable people in the country – those with household incomes less than 200% of the federal poverty level – who are most likely to struggle to keep up with rising energy bills. The average energy bill is expected to rise by almost 9% across the US from June through September, with households paying an average of $719 – up from $661 during the same period last year.The elderly and children – groups which are particularly susceptible to the health impacts of extreme heat – are also disproportionately affected by the gaps in shutoff rules. Almost 48% of children and 52% of seniors live in states with no restrictions on summer shutoffs.The proportion of households with children that could not afford to pay their energy bill for at least one month during the last year increased from 29.3% to 32.4%, according to the latest Census Households Pulse Survey. This includes 22.4% of families with children who were forced to keep their homes at unsafe temperatures due to financial concerns – a 3% rise over the past 12 months.“Our current strategies, including access to cooling centers, may have been appropriate when they were designed in the 1970s when summer temperatures were lower and heatwaves were sporadic,” said Mark Wolfe, author of the report and executive director of Neada, an organization for state directors of the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program (Liheap), the federal energy assistance fund. “They are inadequate to provide relief from the record-breaking high temperatures and continuous heatwaves that have become our new normal in the summer months.”Federal energy assistance for low-income households is both outdated and on the decline – despite a surge in heat-related deaths and illness in recent years.The federal fund Liheap was cut by $2bn for this fiscal year, and only 12% of the allocated $4.1bn will be used to aid struggling families keep cool this summer. As a result, about 1m fewer households will receive financial help with energy bills this year.

America faces a power disconnection crisis amid dangerous heat: In 27 states, utilities can shut off electricity for nonpayment even in a heat wave - Coast to coast, millions of Americans are experiencing sweltering temperatures this summer, with seemingly little relief in sight. For people who struggle to access or afford air conditioning, the rising need for cooling is a growing crisis.An alarming number of Americans risk losing access to utility services because they can’t pay their bills. Energy utility providers in 2022 shut off electricity to at least 3 million customers who had missed a bill payment. Over 30% of these disconnections happened in the three summer months, during a year that was among the hottest on record.In some cases, the loss of service lasted for just a few hours. But in others, people went without electricity for days or weeks while scrambling to find enough money to restore service, often only to face disconnection again.As researchers who study energy justice and energy insecurity, we believe the United States is in the midst of a disconnection crisis. We started tracking these disconnections utility by utility around the country, and we believe that the crisis will only get worse as the impacts of climate change become more widespread and more severe.In our view, it is time government agencies and utilities start treating household energy security as a national priority.Americans tend to think about the loss of electricity as something infrequent and temporary. For most, it is a rare inconvenience stemming from a heat wave or storm.But for millions of U.S. households, the risk of losing power is a constant concern. According to the most recent data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, 1 in 4 American households experience some form of energy insecurity each year, with no appreciable improvement over the past decade.For many low-income households, the risk of a power shut-off reoccurs month after month. In a recent study, we found that over the course of a single year, half of all households whose power was disconnected dealt with disconnections multiple times as they struggled to pay their bills.Energy insecurity like this is especially common among low-income Americans, people of color, families with young children, individuals who rely on electronic medical devices or those living in poor housing conditions. During the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, we found that Black and Hispanic households were three and four times, respectively, more likely to lose service than white households.Along with existing financial constraints, people are facing rising electricity rates in many areas, rising inflation and higher temperatures that require cooling. Some also face a history of redlining and poor city planning that has concentrated certain populations in less efficient homes. Taken together, the crisis is apparent.We have found that over half of all low-income households engage in some coping strategies, and most of them find they need multiple strategies at once.They might leave the air conditioner off in summer, allowing the heat to reach uncomfortable and potentially unsafe temperatures to reduce costs. Or they might forgo food or medicine to pay their energy bills, or strategically pay down one bill rather than another, known as “bill balancing.” Others turn to payday loans that might help temporarily but ultimately put them in deeper debt. In our research, we have found that the most common coping strategies are also the most risky.Once people fall behind on their bills, they are at risk of being disconnected by their utility providers.The loss of critical energy services may mean that affected people cannot keep their homes cool – or warm during the winter months – or food refrigerated during any season. Shut-offs may mean that people with illnesses or disabilities cannot keep medicines refrigerated or medical devices charged. And during times of extreme cold or heat, the loss of energy utility services can have deadly consequences.Our research team created the Utility Disconnections Dashboard, in which we track utility disconnections in all places where data is available.In recent years, more states have required regulated utilities across the country to disclose the number of customers they disconnect. However, state regulations only apply to the utilities that they regulate. Public utilities and cooperatives, which serve over 20% of U.S. electricity customers, often aren’t covered. That leaves massive gaps in understanding of the full magnitude of the problem.

Is the government really recommending 80-degree thermostat settings in summer? - — Much of the U.S. has already experienced sweltering temperatures this summer and the season has only just officially begun. To pile on, current forecasting from the National Weather Service shows even more heat could be on the way.Americans aren’t likely to catch a break when it comes to cooling costs, either. A report released earlier this year predicted that this summer, the average cost of home cooling will beup nearly 8% compared to last summer. That may leave you looking for a way to keep your energy bill from trending up like the mercury in your thermometer. An easy place to start? Your thermostat. However, there appears to be some bad advice going around. Earlier this month, a photo of what appears to be a television broadcast shows thermostat recommendations from Energy Star, a program run by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and U.S. Department of Energy. According to the graphic, Energy Star recommends setting the thermostat to 78°F when you’re home, 85°F when you aren’t, and 82°F when you’re sleeping. This isn’t the first time this seemingly alarming advice has caught everyone’s attention. The temperatures do appear in an Energy Star report on energy-efficient heating and cooling published in 2009. You can see that in the screenshot of the report below: The table appears to suggest that when we’re looking to cool our homes down, we should start the morning with the thermostat set at 78°F or higher, then turn it up at least 7°F during the day (to at least 85°), bringing it back down in the evening, then turn it up to 82°F before going to bed. However, as the report explains, the table is “a starting point” that can be adjusted “to fit your family’s schedule and stay comfortable.”The EPA even clarified the information in 2019, when it was receiving pushback for the same thermostat example, saying at the time that it was not recommending these temperatures — or any others — for the cooling season. Instead, an EPA spokesperson said the focus was on changing the temperature when you are away (turning it up at least 7°F) or asleep (turning it up at least 4°F). “The website illustrates this approach with an example of pre-programmed, energy-saving temperature settings in some programmable thermostats (which includes a 78°F setting),” the spokesperson explained at the time. “All thermostats are designed to allow for adjustment to ensure personal levels of comfort when people are in the home.”A spokesperson for the EPA confirmed to Nexstar that adjusting your thermostat when away or sleeping can help you save energy. (The guidance is flipped in winter — when you are sleeping, you may want to turn the temperature down 4°F, and when you aren’t home, set it 7°F lower).

Historic Ohio building to be demolished after deadly explosion -- A historic Ohio building is set to be demolished after a deadly explosion earlier this year. The historic Realty Tower building in Youngstown will be torn down, with the demolition starting Tuesday at noon, CBS affiliate WOIO reported. News Center 7 previously reported on the explosion that occurred in late May when a crew working in the basement cut a gas line they thought was turned off. The explosion killed 27-year-old Akil Drake, a Chase Bank Employee, and injured 7 other people.According to a release from Youngstown Mayor Jamael Tito Brown, Realty Tower owners, engineers, and city officials decided to demolish the building because of “significant concerns,” about the engineer’s ability to stabilize the building. “While we are disappointed that such a prominent and historic downtown building cannot be saved, we are thankful to be moving forward with a resolution to safely get residents home and downtown businesses open,” Brown said in a statement.The process of the demolishment will be determined by Realty Tower owners. The investigation into the explosion is being handled by the pipeline and hazardous materials division of the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB).

State receives requests to conduct fracking in Leesville Wildlife Area in Carroll County -Canton Repository - The state has received two requests to open the Leesville Wildlife Area in Carroll County to fracking.

Fracking could be coming for the Leesville Wildlife Area in Carroll -- -- The Oil and Gas Land Management Commission has received two requests to open the Leesville Wildlife Area in Carroll County to hydraulic fracturing.The requests, which were received by the commission June 24 and posted Wednesday, seek permission to drill for oil or natural gas on 65 acres of public land in Orange Township and 62 acres in Monroe Township.The requests will be reviewed by the commission and go through a public comment period before any development. Under Ohio law, the companies that submit nominations are anonymous until bids are awarded so it's unclear who is seeking to open the Leesville Wildlife Area to fracking.The five members of the Oil and Gas Land Management Commission are appointed by Gov. Mike DeWine.Last year, Ohio House Bill 507 went into effect. The law speeds up the leasing process for oil and gas companies looking to drill in state parks. It also changed wording of a 2011 law from state agencies "may" lease public lands for drilling to they "shall," essentially requiring the agencies to lease public lands provided bids meet certain conditions.The change has streamlined the leasing process and rapidly increased drilling for oil and gas on public lands.The commission this year awarded bids for exploration to drill under Salt Fork, Ohio's largest state park in Guernsey County. The park has been nominated five separate times for drilling. Two were approved, two were denied and one is still pending. In February, the commission approved a bid for Texas-based company EOG Resources to drill for oil and gas in Brown Township in Carroll County at the Ohio Department of Transportation Malvern outpost. Supporters of public land leases for oil and gas drilling say it generates revenue, but opponents are concerned with environmental impacts, particularly in state parkland and wildlife areas."We've been fracking now in Carroll County for years, and it's taking place in nearly all the townships," Carroll County Commissioner Robert Wirkner said. "There's been problems here and there, but not widespread problems, so I really don't anticipate there would be any differences between fracking under the wildlife area to any other place in the county." Cathy Cowan Becker, co-founder and steering committee member of Save Ohio Parks, a group that was formed in response to last year's law change, said fracking can have harmful environmental impacts. She said fracking uses millions of gallons of water that becomes waste.." Cowan Becker said other impacts include air pollution, light pollution and noise. “You're basically industrializing an area that is meant to be preserved for people to recreate in," she said. Cowan Becker also said it is unfair to Ohioans to keep companies anonymous when they seek to nominate state lands for fracking. “We're the ones who pay the taxes. Our state parks are incredibly popular, we're the ones who use those parks," she said. "We should know who is asking to irrevocably damage them."

Deal to Take Over Austin Master Services Appears to Have Failed --Marcellus Drilling News -- In early June, the owner of Austin Master Services (AMS), American Environmental Partners (AEP), sent a press announcement to MDN to announce he had found a buyer for AMS (see AEP Announces Finding a Buyer for Austin Master Services). AMS is a radiological waste management solutions company in Martins Ferry (Belmont County), Ohio. The Ohio Attorney General lodged charges against AMS in March, accusing the company of storing 16+ times more drill cuttings at the facility than it’s rated for. According to an article in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, the deal to take over AMS and clean it up has fallen through.

Utica Shale Academy expands welding program with $2.5 million state funding - \— Utica Shale Academy received a one-time appropriation fund that will allow the school to expand its welding program even further. The academy received $2.5 million in funding from the State Senate's Strategic Community Investment Appropriation Fund. Superintendent William Watson outlined plans to allocate $1.2 million for HVAC, windows and other upgrades in the newly acquired Williams Collaboration Center. An additional $1.2 million will fund the construction of an indoor welding lab next to its existing outdoor facility. "Right now, we teach four processes,” Watson said. “And the junior senior processes that we teach really do require a more controlled element. So, while they're able to do them, they’re not able to do them with the fidelity that we were looking for. So, we've talked with local employers in our business advisory council, and we thought we really needed an indoor facility that was more climate controlled." The Williams Collaboration Center project is expected to be complete in time for the school's opening Sept. 1. Watson said the indoor welding lab is expected to be operational by the 2025-2026 school year. "Welding allows me to improve myself each and every time,” student Connor Smith said. “It's feeling accomplished when I weld a good pass, and just something I've always wanted to learn and I’m just glad I have the opportunity with this school here." With the academy expanding, enrollment numbers are increasing, and Watson shared that the current enrollment of 130 students reflects a 40% increase since this time last year. "At the moment, we have 20 welding bases, it’s inclusionist project, we're gonna have 40-50,” Watson said. “When you run three or four cohort cycles daily, you’re talking about the ability to impact 100 kids or more.” That's an additional 100 kids impacted solely by the welding program. The dropout prevention and recovery school focuses on more than just welding. It also encompasses other technical maintenance, such as equipment operation, robotics, diesel mechanics and industrial maintenance. Governor Mike DeWine will be in Salineville for the ribbon cutting of the Williams Collaboration Center on Aug. 23.

BLM Plan to Plug 20 Orphaned O&G Wells in Mercer County, PA - Marcellus Drilling News - The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) is seeking public input on four draft environmental assessments evaluating potential impacts from the proposed plugging of orphaned oil and gas wells on public lands in Pennsylvania and West Virginia. One of the assessments seeks public input on plans to cap twenty abandoned gas and oil wells along the river flowing into the Shenango River Lake in Mercer County.

31 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Jul 8 – 14 | Marcellus Drilling News - For the week of July 8 – 14, a total of 31 permits were issued to drill new shale wells in Marcellus/Utica. Pennsylvania had a nice increase with 25 new permits issued. A full 9 of PA’s permits went to Snyder Brothers for a single well in Armstrong County. Another 6 permits went to EQT in PA’s Greene and Washington counties. There were 5 new permits in Ohio, all of them going to Encino Energy for a single pad in Guernsey County. West Virginia had a single new permit going to EQT in Wetzel County. ARMSTRONG COUNTY | CHESAPEAKE ENERGY | COTERRA ENERGY (CABOT O&G) | ENCINO ENERGY | EQT CORP | GREENE COUNTY (PA) | GUERNSEY COUNTY | OLYMPUS/HUNTLEY & HUNTLEY | RANGE RESOURCES CORP | SNYDER BROTHERS | SULLIVAN COUNTY | SUSQUEHANNA COUNTY | WASHINGTON COUNTY | WESTMORELAND COUNTY | WETZEL COUNTY

Are AI Data Centers Sparking a Bullish Case for Natural Gas? -In a recent OilPrice article, I argued that new demand from AI Data centers would be bullish for the natural gas market. In this article, I will extend that discussion and explain why I believe there is a dramatic reset coming for gas-focused E&P stocks. Exactly when isn’t part of the discussion here, but I will lay out a compelling investment thesis for stocks exposed to this commodity.Seasonal temperatures have historically driven much of the pricing dynamic with gas. Everybody knows that when it got cold, gas prices went up as people heated their homes to stay warm. At the end of heating season, prices dropped as the thermostat switched to air conditioning with rising temperatures. King coal took over for the summer and fall. In recent years the LNG exports have created new gas demand, which was fortunate as the peaking of the shale revolution has brought new supplies of “associated gas” into the market. This is gas that, until recently was flared, if existing gathering and trunkline infrastructure wasn’t available. Flaring is bad on a lot of levels, and thousands of miles of midstream infrastructure have been built and are continuing to be built, ensuring this precious resource is utilized as efficiently as possible.Power generation has quietly begun to fill a gap left between coal plant retirements and renewable generation's inability to meet summer cooling demand. Last year, a record number of coal plants went offline, and gas demand rose by several percent to fill the gap. In fact, Bloomberg reported in an article recently that new demand from AI DataCenters has forced utilities to delay coal generating plant closures. Demand from AI Data centers is so new on the scene that it hasn’t factored in utility company demand forecasting to this point. That’s about to change as energy providers like Dominion Energy reassess their needs to meet this new source of demand, but the situation may be more complex than and energy-intensive than has previously been widely discussed. Jevon’s paradox, first applied to coal consumption in steam engines, also applies to data consumption. Brian Janous, founder of Cloverleaf Infrastructurecommented on this principle in a recentBloomberg article.“Jevons said in regard to the notion that efficiency increases in steam engines would result in the use of less coal. ‘No, that's not what's going to happen. We're going to use more coal because we're going to mechanize more things.’ And that's exactly what we do with data just because we've had Moore’s Law for years, and so chips has become incredibly more efficient than they were decades ago, but we didn't use less energy. We used much more energy because we could put chips in everything.”About a year ago, I felt that with cracks emerging in the renewable energy narrative, that gas would find new demand from new sources. It hasn’t happened with the rapidity I expected, as gas prices are still in the dumper, but when you dig into the details, the outcome appears inevitable. In that scenario, many of the gas-oriented energy equities we follow are drastically undervalued at present levels. A recent note from natural resources analyst firm Goerhring & Rosencwajg (G&R) probed this idea in some detail and cited work by Rob West of Thunder Said Energy. Essentially, AI power demand comes in two phases: Training and Inference. The Training part consumes massive amounts of data on the front end as AI models scrape the internet, absorbing data. West calculates that “training Chat-GPT-4 alone consumed 50 GWH of electricity, equivalent to the average annual consumption of 5,000 American households.”Then comes Inference as the models are queried, each query consuming a tiny amount of energy but multiplied by billions of queries for Chat-GPT-4 alone.“West estimates a ChatGPT “inference” requires ten times as much energy as a Google search --3.6 Wh compared to 0.3 Wh. Generative AI’s total energy consumption is a function of several related variables: the number of new models trained per year, the complexity of each model, the energy efficiency of new AI chipsets, and the total queries per trained model.”

Commonwealth LNG’s Approval Ordered Back to FERC for Review of Carbon Emissions - FERC has been ordered by a federal appeals court to review its analysis of the environmental impact of Commonwealth LNG, creating another potential delay for the Louisiana export project. A coalition of environmental groups has challenged the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s authorization of the 9.3 million metric tons/year (mmty) liquefied natural gas project on the grounds that the Commission did not determine whether its associated emissions would have significant impact on the environment. On Tuesday, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit agreed that FERC had not properly explained its decision, especially in comparison with other cases, and should revisit its assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

Appeals court sends Louisiana LNG terminal project back to regulators • Louisiana Illuminator - Federal regulators will have to reconsider its review of a proposed liquified natural gas terminal in southwest Louisiana based on an appellate court ruling Tuesday, but judges stopped short of pulling its approval. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. District determined the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) did not adequately assess the cumulative and direct environmental and health impacts from the Commonwealth LNG near Cameron. Environmental groups have sued to block the project, which the commission approved in November 2022. Commonwealth’s plan calls for construction to begin on the 150-acre site on the Calcasieu Ship Channel in the first half of 2025 and LNG production to start by the end of 2028. In Tuesday’s ruling, Judge Brad Garcia wrote that FERC “inadequately explained its failure to determine the environmental significance of the project’s greenhouse gas emissions.” Garcia, an appointee of President Joe Biden, heard arguments in the case in February along with Judge Karen Henderson, who former President George H.W. Bush named to the appellate court. Plaintiffs in the lawsuits, which have been consolidated, include Healthy Gulf, the Sierra Club, the Center for Biological Diversity, the Louisiana Bucket Brigade and the Turtle Island Restoration Network. “This decision is a big win for communities facing the already very real and growing threats caused by expanded gas exports,” Sierra Club senior attorney Nathan Matthews said in a statement. “Commonwealth LNG would just be one of eight terminals either proposed or operating in Southwest Louisiana. FERC’s own modeling shows that air pollution in the area will exceed national standards.” Neither FERC nor Commonwealth had immediate comment on the appellate court ruling. “By using the best available technology, our facility is designed to operate well within all regulatory requirements, mitigate impact to local wildlife, preserve wetlands, and demonstrate industry best practices to minimize methane leaks and maintain air quality,” the Commonwealth LNG website reads.

Lake Charles LNG Requests Immediate Action on DOE Export Authorization - Energy Transfer LP is testing the regulatory waters after a major court decision on the Biden administration’s LNG pause, requesting that the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) “expeditiously act” on its export license application for Lake Charles LNG. Chart showing commercially advanced NAM LNG projects affected by DOE pause. Earlier in the month, U.S. District Court Judge James Cain of the Western District of Louisiana issued a preliminary order, calling the administration’s decision to halt non-free trade agreement (FTA) permits while it reviewed the impacts on domestic prices unlawful. While DOE has yet to issue a response, Cain’s order directed the agency to restart the review of applications while it conducts studies (No. 2:24-CV-00406). Energy Transfer sent a letter to DOE staff, asking the agency to comply with the court’s order and arguing the company’s application for its liquefied natural gas facility in Louisiana is “best suited” for an immediate decision. Related Tags

What Impact Is Pause Having on LNG Projects in U.S. and Mexico? – Listen Now to NGI’s Hub & Flow -- Click here to listen to the latest episode of NGI’s Hub and Flow podcast in which NGI’s Christopher Lenton, senior editor for Mexico & Latin America, sits down with Poten & Partners LNG industry analyst Sergio Chapa to survey the current North American liquefied natural gas industry scene. They talk through the impacts of former Hurricane Beryl on Gulf Coast infrastructure. Chapa and Lenton also discuss the state of the Biden administration’s pause on U.S.-based LNG export projects and the implications for international competitors. Has the pause given impetus to other projects? How are Mexico LNG projects advancing in the wake of the regulatory back-and-forth? Believing that transparent markets empower businesses, economies and communities, NGI – which publishes daily, weekly and monthly natural gas indexes at pricing locations across North America – works to provide natural gas price transparency for the Americas. NGI’s Hub & Flow podcast is a part of that effort.

Could U.S. E&Ps Boost Activity Ahead of More LNG Exports? 2Q Results Likely to Hold Clues -- Domestic natural gas-weighted production continued to be curtailed during the second quarter to wait out better pricing, but as Gulf Coast LNG projects near completion, could Lower 48 activity increase? Second quarter results may tell the tale. Henry Hub Forward Fixed natural gas prices. Exploration and production (E&P) companies and their oilfield services (OFS) counterparts are gearing up to issue their financial and operational reports over the next few weeks. While the outlook for natural gas prices has been fuzzy, some liquefied natural gas export projects are nearing completion on the Gulf Coast – and in British Columbia. Could the additional gas needed to propel LNG exports overseas and to Mexico move the needle during the last half of this year?

Sempra, Bechtel agree on EPC contract for Port Arthur LNG Phase 2 project in Texas (U.S.) - Sempra Infrastructure, a subsidiary of Sempra, announced that Port Arthur LNG Phase 2 and Bechtel Energy have signed a fixed-price engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract for the Port Arthur LNG Phase 2 project under development in Port Arthur, Texas. "Building on the success of Port Arthur LNG Phase 1, which is currently under construction, the Phase 2 project is expected to further enhance the supply of secure, abundant and reliable U.S. natural gas to customers around the globe." As part of the EPC contract, Bechtel will perform the detailed engineering, procurement, construction, commissioning, startup, performance testing and operator training activities for the project. The scope of the agreement also includes the ability to conduct pre-final investment decision work to better assure project cost and schedule certainty. The proposed Port Arthur LNG Phase 2 project is competitively positioned and is under active marketing and development. The project received authorization from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission in September 2023 and is expected to include two liquefaction trains capable of producing approximately 13 Mtpa of LNG, which would increase the total liquefaction capacity of the facility from approximately 13 Mtpa to up to 26 Mtpa. The Port Arthur LNG Phase 1 project is currently under construction and consists of trains 1 and 2, as well as two LNG storage tanks and associated facilities. Construction of the project continues to progress, and the expected commercial operation dates for train 1 and train 2 are 2027 and 2028, respectively. In June, Sempra Infrastructure and a subsidiary of Aramco signed a non-binding heads of agreement contemplating the purchase of 5 Mtpa of LNG and a 25% equity investment in the Port Arthur LNG Phase 2 project. In December 2022, Port Arthur LNG Phase 2 and INEOS also entered into a non-binding agreement for an offtake capacity of .2 Mtpa from the project. The development of the Port Arthur LNG Phase 2 project remains subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including completing the required commercial agreements, securing and/or maintaining all necessary permits, obtaining financing, and reaching a final investment decision, among other factors.

ADCC Flowing Natural Gas to Cheniere’s Corpus Christi LNG on Texas Coast -- More natural gas is flowing to a key export terminal along the Texas coast following the in-service earlier this month of WhiteWater Midstream LLC’s Agua Dulce-Corpus Christi (ADCC) pipeline. Graph of Agua Dulce daily natgas prices vs Corpus Christi deliveries.. The 43-mile, 42-inch diameter intrastate ADCC pipeline began ramping up last week, delivering incremental volumes to Cheniere Energy Inc.’s Corpus Christi LNG facility. The pipeline is designed to transport 1.7 Bcf/d from Whistler Pipeline LLC’s Agua Dulce Waha header in South Texas. Whistler has the ability to transport up to 2.5 Bcf/d over 450 miles from the Waha header in the Permian Basin to Agua Dulce, providing access to LNG and Mexico export markets.

U.S. LNG natgas feedgas on track to fall to 12-wk low -- The amount of natural gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants was on track to drop to a 12-wk low on Wednesday due to reductions at several plants, including Freeport LNG in Texas, according to data from financial firm LSEG. For years, LNG feedgas has been the fastest growing source of new U.S. gas demand and the shutdown of any export plant, especially Freeport, can sway gas prices around the world. On Monday, U.S. gas futures fell about 7% to a 10-wk low after it became clear that Freeport would not return to full service as soon as the market had previously expected. In 2023, the U.S. exported about 11% of the gas drillers pulled out of the ground as LNG, up from just 1% in 2016, the year Cheniere Energy started operating the first big LNG export plant at Sabine Pass in Louisiana. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants fell to 11.6 Bft3d so far in July due mostly to the shutdown of Freeport for Hurricane Beryl on July 7, down from 12.8 Bft3d in June and a monthly record high of 14.7 Bft3d in December 2023, according to LSEG data. On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to drop to a 12-wk low of 10.7 Bft3d on Wednesday due to the ongoing reduction at Freeport and a new reduction over the past couple of days at Cheniere's Corpus Christi plant in Texas. The 2.1- Bft3d Freeport was on track to pull in about 0.5 Bft3d of gas on Wednesday, up from 0.4 Bft3d on Tuesday and near zero Bft3d from July 7–15. In the week before Freeport shut for Hurricane Beryl, the plant was pulling in about 1.7 Bft3d of feedgas. The 2.4- Bft3d Corpus, meanwhile, was on track to pull in about 1.6 Bft3d of gas on Wednesday, the same as Tuesday. That is down from an average of 2.4 Bft3d during the prior seven days (July 9–15), according to LSEG data. 1 Bft3 is enough gas to supply about 5 MM U.S. homes for a day.

Power, Feed Gas Nominations Slowly Rising at Freeport LNG — Feed gas nominations at Freeport LNG continued rising on Thursday along with power supply as the facility slowly ramps back up after it was shut down more than a week ago ahead of former Hurricane Beryl’s landfall. Bar graph showing Egypt's annual LNG imports. NGI data showed the facility’s feed gas nominations were at 473 MMcf on Thursday, or about 18% of the pipeline capacity feeding the facility. While that number could be revised lower in the next nominating cycle, it was well above the 4% nominated on Monday. Bloomberg also reported that power supply to the terminal was rising for a second consecutive day Thursday. Freeport was shut down on July 7 ahead of the storm. A plant spokesperson said Monday damages caused by Beryl were being repaired and one train would be restarted this week, followed by the other two sometime after that. Five liquefied natural gas tankers were floating offshore near the facility and one was scheduled to berth there on Friday, according to Kpler data.

Texas tanker bottleneck grows on slow Freeport LNG restart after Beryl 0 The number of liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers waiting to load at Freeport LNG in Texas has increased since the U.S. second largest exporter of the supercooled gas halted processing ahead of Hurricane Beryl’s landfall last week, according to shipping data on Thursday. Beryl made landfall on July 8 near Matagorda, on the Texas coast, lashing the state with 80-mph (130-kph) winds that caused infrastructure damages and left more than 2 MM customers without electricity for days. Ports and energy companies in many coastal cities, including Freeport, suffered wind damage and slow restoration of power. Freeport LNG, which shut its three liquefaction trains on July 7 and reported wind damage after, has had a slow operational restart since. The LNG exporter said on Monday it planned to restart one processing train this week and the remaining two trains shortly after, but production would be reduced while it continued repairs. U.S. gas futures had dropped about 7% on Monday to a 10-week low after it became clear to the market that Freeport LNG would likely continue to operate at less than full capacity for several more days. On Thursday, feedgas to the facility was rising with it expected to use 500 MMft3, up from 400 MMft3 on Wednesday, according to LSEG data. The gas utilization increase is seen as an indicator of LNG production starting in the first train, which can use up to 700 MMft3d. However, vessel loading has not resumed. A total of six empty LNG tankers were anchored near the port, compared with a couple ships before the storm, with some of them accumulating more than 10 days of wait. Last-loaded vessels before Beryl's landfall departed Freeport on July 5, according to LSEG. As of Thursday, Freeport LNG had not distributed any instruction to bring tankers into its berths, even though there were some vessels in schedule, a source familiar with the company's operations said. The Port of Freeport last week reopened the navigation channel, but draft restrictions for vessels remain, the Brazos Pilots Association said. Long waits for vessels that have back-to-back contracts tend to lead to cargo cancellations. Freeport LNG has canceled at least 10 cargoes for loading through August, Bloomberg reported, citing traders familiar with the matter. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants have fallen to 11.6 Bft3d so far in July due mostly to the Freeport outage, down from 12.8 Bft3d in June and a monthly record high of 14.7 Bft3d in December 2023.

Global Natural Gas Market Unfazed by Ongoing Freeport Outage – Freeport LNG Development LP said Monday it would restart one liquefaction train this week after the plant was damaged during former Hurricane Beryl. Despite the plant's ongoing outage, global natural gas prices remained stable. Freeport was shut down July 7 ahead of the storm and has remained offline since then. “We are completing initial repairs on the damage sustained to our fin fan air coolers in the hurricane and anticipate restarting the first train this week,” said spokesperson Heather Browne. “We plan to restart the remaining two trains shortly thereafter.”

US natgas prices drop 7% to 10-week low on Texas Freeport LNG outage (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 7% to a 10-week low on Monday due to the slow return of the Freeport LNG export plant in Texas after shutting for Hurricane Beryl and on forecasts for less hot weather and lower demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. Freeport said it is repairing damage sustained in the hurricane. The company said it anticipated it would restart the first train this week and the remaining two trains shortly thereafter. Traders also said prices were depressed by rising output and the tremendous oversupply of gas still in storage. Analysts said there was currently about 18% more gas in storage than is normal for this time of year. Front-month gas futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 17.1 cents, or 7.3%, to settle at $2.158 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since May 3. Saturday and Sunday were the hottest days so far this year and Monday and Tuesday were forecast to be even hotter, according to meteorologists. That heat will likely force power generators to continue burning lots of gas to produce electricity to keep air conditioners humming. Power generators burned a record 54.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas on July 9, according to LSEG data. Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to an average of 102.3 bcfd so far in July, up from an average of 100.2 bcfd in June and a 17-month low of 99.5 bcfd in May. U.S. output hit a monthly record high of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants fell to 11.8 bcfd so far in July after Freeport LNG in Texas shut ahead of Hurricane Beryl on July 7, down from 12.8 bcfd in June and a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.

US natgas prices edge up 1% on record power demand during heat wave (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% on Tuesday from a 10-week low in the prior session after power demand hit a record high on Monday as homes and businesses cranked up their air conditioners to escape the hottest day so far this summer. That increase in gas prices came despite forecasts for less demand this week than previously projected due primarily to the slower than expected return to full power of Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas. Traders also noted that gas prices have been depressed for four of the past five weeks due to rising output and the persistent oversupply of gas still in storage versus normal for this time of year. Front-month gas futures NGc1 for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 3.0 cents, or 1.4%, to settle at $2.188 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Monday, the contract fell about 7% to close at its lowest level since May 3. Despite the small price increase, the front-month remained in technically oversold territory for a second day in a row and an eighth time in the past 10 trading days. In the spot market, high cooling demand during the heat wave boosted next-day power prices in New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL and the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland region by over 150% to their highest levels since January. Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to an average of 102.2 bcfd so far in July, up from an average of 100.2 bcfd in June and a 17-month low of 99.5 bcfd in May. U.S. output hit a monthly record high of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023. Several producers cut output earlier in the year after futures prices dropped to 3-1/2-year lows in February and March. But higher prices in April, May and June prompted some drillers, including EQT and Chesapeake Energy, to return to the well pad. Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 states would remain mostly hotter than normal through at least July 31. That heat will likely force power generators to continue burning lots of gas to produce electricity to keep air conditioners humming. Power generators burned a daily record of 54.1 bcfd of gas on July 9, according to LSEG data. LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will slide from 105.1 bcfd this week to 103.6 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday.

US natgas prices drop 7% to 10-week low on cooler weather forecasts, lower LNG feedgas - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 7% to a 10-week low on Wednesday on forecasts for cooler weather over the next two weeks than previously expected and a drop in feedgas to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants due primarily to the shutdown of Freeport LNG in Texas for Hurricane Beryl. Energy traders noted prices were also weighed down by the persistent oversupply of gas still in storage versus normal for this time of year. Analysts said there was currently about 18% more gas in storage than is normal. Front-month gas futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 15.3 cents, or 7.0%, to settle at $2.035 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since May 2. In other news, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised peak hourly power demand on Monday down to 739,849 megawatts (MW), which would not break the prior all-time high of 742,600 MW set on July 20, 2022, and would only be the highest since usage peaked at 741,815 MW on July 27, 2023. Earlier in the week, EIA said U.S. power demand hit a preliminary record high on Monday. Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has risen to an average of 102.1 bcfd so far in July, up from an average of 100.2 bcfd in June and a 17-month low of 99.5 bcfd in May. U.S. output hit a monthly record high of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023. On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop by 3.5 bcfd over the past three days to a preliminary five-week low of 99.5 bcfd on Wednesday. Preliminary data is often revised later in the day. Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 states would remain mostly near normal through July 24 before turning hotter than normal through at least Aug. 1. But with less hot weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will slide from 105.5 bcfd this week to 103.5 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants have fallen to 11.6 bcfd so far in July due mostly to the shutdown of Freeport LNG in Texas for Hurricane Beryl, down from 12.8 bcfd in June and a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to drop to a 12-week low of 10.7 bcfd on Wednesday due to the ongoing reduction at Freeport and a new reduction over the past couple of days at Cheniere Energy's Corpus Christi in Texas, according to LSEG data.

US natgas prices climb 4% on small storage build, hot weather forecasts (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 4% on Thursday, a day after dropping to a 10-week low on a much smaller-than-expected storage build last week. Prices were also boosted by forecasts for hot weather to return in late July and early August, which should increase the amount of gas power generators burn to keep air conditioners humming. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added just 10 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into inventories during the week ended July 12. Traders noted energy firms pulled gas out of Salt and Non-Salt storage facilities in the South Central region last week to feed power generator demand for the fuel to keep air conditioners humming. That 10-bcf build was well below the 27-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 43 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2019-2023) average rise of 49 bcf for this time of year. Traders noted that storage builds have been smaller than usual in nine of the past 10 weeks because several producers cut output earlier in the year after futures prices dropped to 3-1/2-year lows in February and March. Despite the declining builds, gas stocks were still about 17% above normal for this time of year. Front-month gas futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 9.0 cents, or 4.4%, to settle at $2.125 per million British thermal units. On Wednesday, the front-month fell about 7% and closed at its lowest level since May 2 on forecasts for cooler weather over the next two weeks than previously expected and a drop in feedgas to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants due primarily to the shutdown of Freeport LNG in Texas for Hurricane Beryl. Freeport started pulling in small amounts of feedgas this week as it slowly returns to service. The price increase on Thursday pushed the front-month out of technically oversold territory for the first time in four days. Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to an average of 102.2 bcfd so far in July, up from an average of 100.1 bcfd in June and a 17-month low of 99.4 bcfd in May. U.S. output hit a monthly record high of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023. Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 states would remain mostly near normal through July 25 before turning hotter than normal through at least Aug. 2. With less hot weather expected in the coming week, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will slide to 103.6 bcfd next week from 105.6 bcfd this week. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants fell to 11.6 bcfd so far in July due mostly to the Freeport outage, down from 12.8 bcfd in June and a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.

Strong oil and gas demand supporting Permian Basin’s production growth, says GlobalData --- The Permian Basin remains the largest oil-producing shale play in the US, with global demand and geopolitical shifts continuing to support growth and competitiveness in the region, according to research from Offshore Technology’s parent company, GlobalData. The region’s crude oil production averaged 5.6 million barrels per day (mmb/d) during the first quarter (Q1) of 2024, accruing benefits from a dense pipeline network and Gulf Coast infrastructure, revealed the report, titled ‘Permian Basin in the US, 2024‘.Ravindra Puranik, oil and gas analyst at GlobalData, said: “Europe’s strategic shift away from Russian energy exports has resulted in key changes to the global energy supplies. This is anticipated to benefit the US shale oil and gas drillers, as well as LNG [liquified natural gas] producers who are positioned to reap from these evolving supply chain dynamics.“The US shale oil production might also benefit from the Red Sea crisis that has added a risk premium to ship-based exports from the Middle East to Europe.”Throughout 2023, there was significant consolidation in the US oil and gas industry, with exploration companies spending as much as $234bn on mergers and acquisitions (M&A), the highest level in real dollar terms since 2012.According to the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest analysis, this uptick in deal-making marks a return to a trend of consolidation among oil companies in the US after transactions declined amid oil market volatility in 2020 and 2022.Referring to the M&A activity, Puranik added: “ExxonMobil’s acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources was the biggest deal in the Permian Basin shale play in recent years. The deal worth $64.5bn has put ExxonMobil on the top of the pedestal, surpassing competitors in this play such as Occidental and Chevron.They added that continued “investment and strategic acquisitions in the Permian Basin will be essential to maintaining its leadership in the US shale industry, especially as global energy dynamics shift and demand for reliable oil and gas supplies remains strong.”

Broken pipe leaks oil into Turkey Creek in Kilgore -- The City of Kilgore announced on Sunday that an oil spill had taken place.A broken pipe from a local business caused oil to leak into Turkey Creek, city representatives said. The pipe has been repaired, and the creek is in the process of being cleaned.The city has informed TCEQ and the Texas Railroad Commission.

Crude Inventories Fall Again as Fuel Stocks Build -- Crude oil inventories in the United States fell sharply this week by 4.44 million barrels for the week ending July 12, according to The American Petroleum Institute (API). For the week prior, the API reported a 1.9 million barrel draw in crude inventories. This week marks the third week in a row of API-estimated inventory draws for crude oil, for a total loss of 15.5 million barrels. On Tuesday, the Department of Energy (DoE) reported that crude oil inventories in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) rose by 0.6 million barrels as of July 12. Inventories are now at 373.7 million barrels—the highest level since December 2022, but still well below the 656 million barrels in inventory in June 2020. Oil prices were trading substantially down ahead of the API data release on Tuesday. At 04:11 pm ET, Brent crude was trading down $1.04 (-1.23%) on the day at $83.81—down about $1 per barrel from this time last week. The U.S. benchmark WTI was also trading down on the day by $1.08 (-1.32%) at $80.83—down nearly $1 per barrel from this time last week. Gasoline inventories rose this week by a small amount, +365,000 barrels, after last week’s 3-million-barrel decrease. As of last week, gasoline inventories are 1% below the five-year average for this time of year, according to the latest EIA data. Distillate inventories rose this week by 4.92 million barrels, on top of last week’s 2.3-million-barrel increase. Distillates were about 8% below the five-year average for the week ending May July 5, the latest EIA data shows. Cushing inventories fell this week by 746,000 barrels, according to API data, after falling by 1.2 million barrels in the previous week.

Michigan environmental group responds to Line-5 pipeline enclosure appeal | WXPR - A Michigan environmental group is addressing an appeal challenging the state's decision to approve the enclosure of the Enbridge Line 5 pipeline.Built in 1953, this pipeline transports up to 540,000 barrels of petroleum daily through the Great Lakes. Enbridge aims to build a protective tunnel around a four mile segment at the Straits of Mackinac, which connects Lake Michigan and Lake Huron.Environmental groups and tribal leaders want the state to reverse Enbridge's permit, citing concerns about a potential catastrophic oil spill.The nonprofit group Oil & Water Don't Mix is dedicated to preventing oil spills and promoting clean energy - and they support the appeal.David Holtz, an international coordinator with the group, discussed the next steps."And the next big hurdle that the tunnel will have will be during the federal permitting process," said Holtz, "so we're going to be focusing on that in the coming days."Enbridge spokesperson Ryan Duffy said in an email statement that Line 5's safety is exclusively regulated by the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration.Enbridge maintains that it also conducts internal inspections via an MRI-like tool known as a "pig" that travels the line, recording data on the pipe's thickness and looking for cracks, dents or signs of corrosion.Holtz said his organization will continue its efforts to make the public and the federal government aware of what needs to be done regarding Line 5."The need for the Biden administration," said Holtz, "to take a stand in support of its own climate policy by rejecting the tunnel."Holtz added that the permitting process, known as the Environmental Impact Study, will be open for public comment - and is set for early next year.

Bad River tribe proposes plan to slow erosion near Enbridge's oil and gas pipeline - A northern Wisconsin tribe has proposed a solution to slow riverbank erosion near a Canadian energy firm’s oil and gas pipeline to reduce the threat of a potential spill on tribal lands and resources.In a July 5 letter to Enbridge, the Bad River Band of Lake Superior Chippewa proposed a plan to install interlocking and removable logs along the banks of the Bad River, or Mashkiiziibii, near the company’s Line 5 pipeline.The tribe’s proposal comes amid a contentious, years-long feud over Enbridge’s operation of Line 5 on tribal lands after the tribal council allowed pipeline easements to expire more than a decade ago. In 2019, Bad River sued the company to force it to shut down and remove Line 5 from a dozen miles of tribal lands.A federal judge has since found the company is trespassing on the tribe’s reservation, ordering Enbridge to pay $5.15 million and remove or reroute its pipeline by June 2026. That decision is currently being appealed. In the meantime, Bad River Tribal Chair Robert Blanchard said in a statement that he and tribal members live in fear “of forever losing our ability to fish, hunt, gather, and sustain our people in our homeland.”“Enbridge should recognize our treaty-protected rights and rights to our land by ending its trespass and leaving our watershed,” Blanchard continued. “And we remain hopeful that the appeals court will order Enbridge to end its trespass promptly. But so long as Enbridge refuses to stop trespassing we must continue to pursue ways to reduce the risk created by Line 5.”The company has previously submitted its own plans to address erosion that’s drawn the Bad River closer to its Line 5 pipeline, but the tribe has rejected the company’s proposals. Those included projects to install rocks or sandbags along the riverbank.Last year, Enbridge sought approval to use a helicopter to install hundreds of trees along roughly 400 feet of the river’s shoreline to avoid further erosion from runoff or flooding. The company’s project would have included installation of docks and dams, as well as use a boat or trucks to move equipment. The work also would have temporarily affected almost four acres of wetlands.Juli Kellner, an Enbridge spokesperson, said in a statement the company met with Bad River on Wednesday to discuss the plans with the tribe’s Mashkiiziibii Natural Resources Department and its consultants.“Over the weekend we received a few more details, and appreciate the Band’s invitation to learn more, and work cooperatively to control erosion at the meander. Currently, we are in the process of reviewing available information,” Kellner said.Wright Water Engineers, the tribe’s consultant and Denver-based engineering firm, developed the plan to install the interlocking logs referred to as “log jacks.” Contrary to Enbridge’s proposal, Blanchard said in its letter the project reduces environmental impacts and shortens installation time. It also requires 90 percent fewer helicopter flights. The log jacks would be put together off-site and transported by truck to a site near the eroded area. A helicopter would be used to then lower the log jacks onto the riverbank. The tribe said the process would avoid the use of heavy equipment during installation.

84,000 gallons of oil spilled in western North Dakota - — Around 84,000 gallons of crude oil spilled out from a storage tank into a secondary containment area near the storage site, according to a release from the North Dakota Department of Environmental Quality. Savage Services Corporation's spill occurred on Thursday, July 11, 6 miles southwest of Trenton, according to the release. Trenton is roughly 14 miles southwest of Williston. "Currently, there is no known impact to waters of the state," the release said. State employees from Environmental Quality are monitoring the investigation and remediation, the release said, as well as helping the "responsible party" clean up the spill. "Federal and state laws require operators to report the spillage of any materials that may pollute water, air or soil," the release said. Those looking for more information about North Dakota’s Unified Spill Reporting System notifications and the public access tool should visit spill.nd.gov .

Tribunal rejects TC Energy's $15-B claim for Keystone XL - Canada's TC Energy said on Tuesday a free trade arbitration tribunal had tossed out its claim to recover more than $15 B from the U.S. government for the cancellation of its Keystone XL project. The pipeline operator had submitted a formal request for arbitration under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 2021. U.S. President Joe Biden had canceled the pipeline's permit a year after the NAFTA was terminated in July 2020. The pact was then replaced by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). TC Energy said the tribunal determined it did not have the authority to decide if the revocation of the Presidential Permit violated the obligations outlined under the NAFTA. "This ruling does not align with our expectations and views of the plain interpretation of the protections NAFTA and the USMCA were designed to offer," TC Energy said on Tuesday. Keystone XL would have carried 830,000 bpd of oil from Alberta in Canada to the U.S. Midwest, but was held up for more than a decade by environmental opposition and regulatory hurdles, before its permit was revoked. In 2022, Alberta, Canada's largest oil-producing province, had also initiated a trade challenge to recover its investment of about C$1.3 B ($949.95 MM) in the pipeline.

Asian Market Buys First Oil Cargoes From Canada’s Trans Mountain Pipeline -- China, Japan and South Korea are set to receive cargoes of oil imports from Canada's newly expanded Trans Mountain pipeline in September, becoming the first Asian countries to benefit from the facility since it became operational in May. The expanded TMX pipeline will triple the flow of crude from landlocked Alberta to Canada's Pacific coast to 890,000 barrels per day (bpd). TMX provides Asian refiners an opportunity to diversify their imports while also giving Canadian producers more access to U.S. West Coast and Asian markets. South Korean refiner GS Caltex will split a 550,000-barrel Cold Lake crude cargo with Japan's top refiner ENEOS, with GS Caltex taking 300,000 barrels while ENEOS will get 250,000 barrels. South Korea's top refiner SK Energy, a unit of SK Innovation, bought a 550,00-barrel cargo from Unipec while Hengyi Petrochemical, a refinery operator in Brunei, also purchased a similar volume of crude from PetroChina Co (OTCPK:PCCYF). All the cargoes were sold at discounts of between $5 and $6 a barrel to ICE Brent. Meanwhile, Chinese private refiner Rongsheng Petrochemical has purchased two Canadian Access Western Blend (AWB) crude cargoes from ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) and Vitol on top of another two AWB cargoes it bought via a tender. Cold Lake and AWB are heavy sour crude containing 3.5-4% sulfur and with API gravity of 21-22 degrees. TMX crude exports are expected to clock in at ~350,000-400,000 bpd, and will compete with heavy grades from Latin America and the Middle East. According to Muyu Xu, a senior crude oil analyst at analytics firm Kpler, Cold Lake crude is about $10 per barrel cheaper than Iraq's Basra Heavy for deliveries to China. "Canada's TMX crude attracts interest from Asian buyers who are keen to secure cheap supplies of heavy grades but do not have access to U.S.-sanctioned Venezuelan crude," XU told Reuters. "It will still take some time for refiners to experiment with and test TMX crude as the first few cargoes have just arrived," she added.

Wildfires Return and Threaten Canada’s Oil Sands Once Again --As many as 47 new wildfires were reported in Alberta over the past 24 hours, as extreme heat and dry weather are currently fanning about 150 wildfires in Canada’s oil-producing province.Fire bans and alerts of severe fire threats are in place for many areas close to oil sands producing sites.In May, a fire that was out of control came within 3 miles of Fort McMurray, the unofficial capital of Canada’s oil sands, leading to the evacuation of 6,600 residents.The wildfires returned in full force in July, disrupting some oil sands output and threatening to disrupt more.“When it’s mostly hot and dry, thunderstorms can lead to wildfires. Most new wildfires in July have been caused by lightning,” Alberta Wildfire said on Wednesday. Early on Thursday, an evacuation alert was issued for residents of the hamlet of Janvier. An evacuation order has not been issued. This is an alert for residents in the affected area to be ready to leave on short notice, the regional municipality of Wood Buffalo said.Oil sands producers Canadian Natural Resources, Imperial Oil, and MEG Energy are closely monitoring the current situation in Alberta as wildfires are currently raging within 6-7 miles of some of their production sites.Earlier this month, wildfires in northern Alberta continued to disrupt some oil sands operations as Cenovus Energy demobilized non-essential staff at its Sunrise project as a precaution amid heat and wildfire alerts in the area.In early July, Suncor shut down an oil sands project in Alberta amid wildfires. The Firebag project has a capacity of 215,000 barrels of crude daily. Suncor said that it would keep the site ready to return to full operation as soon as possible.Two months ago, authorities in Fort McMurray issued an “extreme” wildfire danger for the forest area that could threaten to shut in or disrupt some Canadian crude oil or natural gas output in the coming weeks. Indeed, the wildfires shut down some production at the time but it was quickly brought back online.

MEG Energy Responds to Regional Wildfires with Evacuation of Non-Essential Personnel at Christina Lake Regional Project - MEG Energy Corp.reports that the Corporation has proactively initiated a controlled evacuation of non-essential personnel from MEG's Christina Lake Regional Project (CLRP) as a result of nearby wildfires. "Our first operating priority is to care for ourselves and all others," said Darlene Gates, President and CEO. "Out of an abundance of caution, we are taking precautions to ensure the safe and orderly withdrawal of all non-essential personnel. Our focus is to minimize and mitigate any potential impact on our people and our operations. At this time, the wildfires do not pose an imminent threat to CLRP and production continues as normal. We are working with relevant authorities and continue to monitor the situation." As information becomes available, news releases will be issued and we will post the latest updates on www.megenergy.com. Any further inquires should be directed to media@megenergy.comand a MEG representative will assist you.

Mexico’s First-Ever LNG Cargo Poised to Ship from Altamira — LNG tanker Energos Princess has pulled up to New Fortress Energy Inc.’s floating storage unit at Altamira, Mexico, according to ship-tracking data from Kpler. The vessel has a capacity of 160,000 cubic meters over four tanks. The ship had previously signaled it could head to Boston after loading, according to Kpler data. U.S. Customs and Border Protection ruled earlier this year that transportation of LNG produced offshore Altamira by non-U.S. qualified vessels would not violate the Jones Act.

Bolivia announces discovery of natural gas mega field (Radio Havana Cuba)-- Bolivia’s president has announced plans to exploit a vast natural gas reserve north of Bolivia’s administrative capital, La Paz. President Luis "Lucho" Arce said Monday the discovery of 1.7 trillion cubic feet of gas would once again make Bolivia a major exporter of fossil fuels. The Bolivian president noted: "This will mark the beginning of a new chapter for the northern sub-Andean region. It offers the hope of maintaining our country as an important gas exporter, driving a second era of hydrocarbon production and positioning La Paz as a department that is now a hydrocarbon producer.” Bolivia is already South America’s largest exporter of natural gas, although its shipments are dwarfed by the world leader, the United States.

IEA Forecasts Lagging LNG Demand, Further Global Natural Gas Price Slides Through 2024 -Worldwide gains in natural gas demand are expected to be marginal for the rest of the year, pushing down LNG spot prices and global gas benchmarks through the later half of 2024, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). NGI's Global Futures Settles through 2027 chart and graph Expand In the IEA’s latest gas market report, researchers noted that the liquefied natural gas market would likely be capped for the rest of the year, as global export capacity is expected to expand a comparatively small 3%, or about 530 Bcf. Meanwhile, on the demand side, falling European consumption is expected to offset growth rates in Africa, the Middle East and North America. Overall, global gas demand growth could fall to a rate below 2% in the second half of the year.

Questions Abound for Europe’s Natural Gas Demand Outlook as LNG Imports, Prices Trend Lower As national elections roll on and a new European Union (EU) presidency grasps the reins, industrial natural gas users are pushing for more supplies of the fuel and energy policies in the face of declining LNG imports. None Expand The EU has imported less liquefied natural gas from the globe despite downward pressure on futures prices. Natural gas imports into Europe dropped almost 12% in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the same period last year, according to the latest Eurostat data. LNG volumes alone dropped 11.4% compared with 1Q2023.

Prices for liquefied natural gas continue to rise due to the heat - The severe heat wave this summer is leading to a noticeable increase in prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Asian countries. In mid-June, it reached $12.6 per 1 million BTU (British Thermal Unit, British thermal unit) on the spot market, Azernews reports. This is about 1.5 times more than in early March and the highest level since December 2023. In early July, the price in Asian markets fluctuated at about the same level, just below $ 12.5 per 1 million BTU. In the European Union, Nikkei notes, LNG prices were also the highest since December 2023. "The main factor in their growth," the newspaper notes, "is the intense heat. In China, the world's largest LNG buyer, temperatures rose this spring to the highest levels since 1961. In Japan, which ranks second in the world in LNG purchases, temperatures this summer will also be noticeably above average, the Nikkei warns. This leads to an increase in demand for LNG, as the heat requires large amounts of electricity for air conditioning and refrigeration units. According to the International Energy Agency, in 2024, the consumption of liquefied natural gas in the countries of the Asia-Pacific region will increase by 12% compared to the level of 2020 and will amount to 937 billion cubic meters, which is about 20% of global consumption. The growing demand for LNG in Asia is pulling up its prices on a global scale, the newspaper states.

Asian spot LNG prices remain above $12 for eighth week running Asian spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices fell slightly this week, tracking European gas prices, amid muted Chinese demand but they remained above $12.00 for the eighth week running. The average LNG price for August delivery into north-east Asia was at $12.10 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), industry sources estimated, down from $12.20/mmBtu the previous week, industry sources estimated. Prices for September delivery were estimated at $11.80/mmBtu. "Increased hydro(power) availability in China is pressuring demand, while economic indicators like inflation and producer prices are also not supportive of enhanced growth for the second half of the year," said Klaas Dozeman, market analyst at Brainchild Commodity Intelligence. Dozeman said that the newest outlook for the La Nina weather pattern, which is characterised by cold temperatures in the Pacific Ocean during July-September, has weakened for the third consecutive month. "A weaker La Nina typically decreases the need for winter restocking and decreases the risk of high gas demand in the U.S. and Asia, though major risk remains as any late summer heat in Asia might increase this need for LNG," he added. In general, the Asia region remains balanced with rising temperatures in north-east Asia, and continuing monsoons in south and south-east Asia lowering the need for gas-fired power generation, said Charles Costerousse, senior LNG analyst at Kpler. In Japan, high temperatures have added some upward pressure, with extra power demand and additional thermal power plants drawn into action. LNG stocks in terminal tanks have dropped as a result, said Alex Froley, senior LNG analyst at ICIS. In Europe, underground stocks remain seasonally strong and strong renewables generation compared to last year has suppressed gas demand, while strong Norwegian supply has suppressed spot LNG buying, said Martin Senior, deputy head of LNG pricing at Argus. S&P Global Commodity Insights assessed its daily North West Europe LNG Marker (NWM) price benchmark for cargoes delivered in August on an ex-ship (DES) basis at $9.824/mmBtu on July 11, a $0.85/mmBtu discount to the August gas price at the Dutch TTF hub. Argus assessed the August delivery price at $11.525/mmBtu, while Spark Commodities assessed it at $9.755/mmBtu. In the United States, the market is closely monitoring the restart of U.S. Freeport LNG production, which has protectively shut down operations due to Hurricane Beryl. U.S. LNG export company Freeport's plant in Texas started pulling in small amounts of natural gas on Thursday, according to LSEG data. "Traders will have to factor in the potential for further storms later in the season which runs until November. One past example of difficulties was after Hurricane Laura at the end of August 2020 that led the Cameron LNG plant to shut for large parts of September and October," ICIS' Froley said. Following nine weeks of significant freight rate increases, the Atlantic rates decreased to $88,250/day on Friday. Meanwhile, the Pacific rates rose to $56,750/day, its highest level since February, said Spark Commodities analyst Qasim Afghan.

Consumption of natural gas rises 7.1% YoY in June - The Economic Times - Consumption of refined products increased 2.6% in June to 20 million metric tonnes (MMT). For the April-June period, the growth was 3.4%, led by 11.4% increase in aviation turbine fuel (ATF), 7.1% in petrol, 1.6% in diesel and 5% in liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).Domestic natural gas consumption increased 7.1% year-on-year in June, aided by an 11.3% surge in imports. India imported 2,648 million metric standard cubic metres (MMSCM) of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in June, according to the petroleum and natural gas ministry data. Total domestic gas consumption was 5,594 MMSCM, also aided by a 2.9% expansion in domestic gas production to 2,993 MMSCM.For the April-June quarter, the increase in consumption was 3.8% year-on-year. Domestic production went up 5.7% and imports only 0.6%. LNG prices in the spot market have risen about 50% in four months. Japan Korea Marker (JKM), the Asian spot benchmark for LNG, averaged $12.6 per MMBtu in June, a little higher than $12.2 a year ago.The onset of the monsoon has brought down electricity demand in the country, affecting imports of LNG for power generation.

Global LNG trade witnesses solid growth in 2023, says report - The Liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade increased 3.1% globally in 2023 to average 52.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), an increase of 1.6 Bcf/d from 2022, according to a report from the International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers (GIIGNL). Expanded export and import capacity and increasing natural gas demand drove the growth in global LNG trade last year. Published by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the report says LNG export capacity expanded primarily in the United States, Mozambique, Russia, Indonesia, Norway, and Oman. In the US, Freeport LNG returned to service in February 2023 after being offline since June 2022, and it was operating at full production capacity by April. Developers in both Mozambique and Russia commissioned new projects in 2022 — the 0.4-Bcf/d Coral South Floating LNG in Mozambique and the 0.2-Bcf/d Portovaya LNG in Russia—and these projects reached full production in 2023. In Indonesia, the Tangguh LNG export facility added a third train. Norway and Oman increased LNG production capacity by optimizing operational efficiency of existing LNG plants. In 2023, the US became the world’s largest LNG exporter, with exports increasing by 12% compared with 2022. Exports from the three largest global LNG exporters—the US, Australia, and Qatar — accounted for 60% of all LNG exports in 2023. Algeria’s LNG exports increased 0.4 Bcf/d as additional natural gas feedstock became available from the newly commissioned production fields. Exports also increased from Norway and Australia mainly due to optimization of the export plants’ operational performance and from Indonesia after a capacity expansion at Tangguh LNG. LNG import capacity was expanded primarily in Europe and Asia. In Europe, operators placed several new Floating Storage and Regasification Units in service and expanded regasification capacity at some existing terminals. In Asia, new capacity was added primarily in China, India, the Philippines, and Vietnam. Asian countries continued to lead the growth in LNG imports globally, with imports increasing by 3.5% (1.2 Bcf/d) in 2023. LNG imports increased by 12% (1.0 Bcf/d) in China, the most of any country in the world, making China the world’s largest LNG importer for the second year since 2021. LNG imports in India increased by 11% (0.3 Bcf/d) as new regasification terminals were placed in service and LNG prices declined. Lower LNG prices also contributed to increased imports into Thailand (by 0.4 Bcf/d), Bangladesh (0.1 Bcf/d), and Singapore (by 0.1 Bcf/d). LNG imports in Europe increased slightly by 1.4% (0.2 Bcf/d). Imports into Germany — the newest LNG importer — averaged 0.7 Bcf/d. Imports also increased to countries that expanded regasification capacity, such as the Netherlands, Italy, and Finland. LNG imports to the United Kingdom, France, and Spain declined by a combined 1.3 Bcf/d, mainly because natural gas demand in these countries decreased. In Latin America, LNG imports increased mainly in Colombia, by 0.1 Bcf/d. Colombia experienced drought and used LNG for natural gas-fired electric power plants to offset lower hydropower generation. In Brazil, LNG imports declined by 0.2 Bcf/d because more electricity was generated by hydropower, reducing demand for natural gas-fired electricity generation in 2023. LNG imports into Puerto Rico also increased by 0.1 Bcf/d.

Oil Leak Causes Another Spill in Matanzas Bay -- A leak in the 920-millimeter High Vanadium Fuel Oil line in the industrial zone of Matanzas has resulted in an oil spill into the sea, reported the state-run Periódico Girón.The spill, detected at 5:15 PM on Friday, July 12, was estimated to be between 30 and 32 cubic meters of fuel, with 6 to 8 cubic meters reaching the bay. The incident occurred when a failure in the pipeline caused the containment basin to overflow, detailed the report on Facebook.The Civil Defense in the province, along with specialists from the Fuel Marketing Company andCITMA, inspected the shoreline near the spill area and the beaches inside the bay on Saturday morning to assess the situation. However, they stated that no incrustations or oil stains have been detected.Among the measures taken, approximately 24 cubic meters of oil were removed from the containment basin. Additionally, efforts are underway to restore the basin area and the coastal margins near the pier, using rocky material to facilitate the extraction of embedded oil. According to specialists, the process is expected to conclude today, weather permitting. The regime added that an operation is being prepared to apply another cleaning technique previously used in past spills in the province, once the manual extraction is completed. A sediment monitoring will also be conducted after the cleanup operations to identify any potential alterations in the bay.In April, the authorities in Matanzas were investigating a toxic substance spill in the Bay of Cárdenas, with possible environmental implications for the area. The official press reported that it involved "ballast residue from a disused tank located along the Cárdenas coastline."In 2019, another significant spill involving 268,000 liters of fuel oil was reported in the Calimetemunicipality of Matanzas, near the Jesús Rabí sugar mill, following a failure in a fuel tank supplying the distillery next to the sugar processing center. In 2018, another oil spill was reported in Matanzas Bay caused by a ship unloading oil at Pier 1 of the Supertanker Terminal in the industrial zone of Matanzas.The spill was caused by a failure in the 920-millimeter High Vanadium Fuel Oil line, which led to the overflow of the containment basin.Authorities have removed approximately 24 cubic meters of oil from the containment basin and are working to restore the area using rocky material. They are also preparing to apply another cleaning technique and will monitor sediments after the cleanup.

Spain's Valencia shuts three beaches hit by oil spill - The city council of Valencia, Spain, on Tuesday closed three beaches on the Mediterranean coast after oil or fuel from a spill washed up on a 2-km (1.2-mile) line of sand. The cause of the spill was not immediately clear. "The red flag was raised on the beach of Saler, Arbre del Gos y Garrofera because of the spill," city hall spokesperson Juan Carlos Caballero told reporters. Authorities in Valencia, Spain's third-largest city, have sent a drone and a helicopter to find the origin and nature of the spill and gauge its severity. Special crews were sent to clean up the popular beaches just south of the city on a narrow strip of land between the Mediterranean and a protected wetland called L'Albufera. The extent of the spill appeared limited to that area, Caballero said. In addition to an industrial port and several heavy-industry plants, Valencia also has popular beach resorts.

Egypt launches major tender to import 740,000 tons of petroleum products -Egypt has launched an international tender to import approximately 740,000 tons of petroleum products for delivery in August, three sources familiar with the matter told Asharq Business.This move aims to address the country’s growing energy demands and ensure a stable supply of fuel during peak consumption periods.The tender includes 400,000 tons of diesel, 170,000 tons of gasoline, and 170,000 tons of butane.Egypt's annual consumption stands at about 12 million tons of diesel and 6.7 million tons of gasoline. One of the sources added thar prices of imported gasoline increased by 90% in the first five months of the year amid the increasing demand and consumption in summer.

Efforts intensify to prevent oil spill after cargo ship grounding - According to Reuters, efforts are underway at full throttle to prevent a potential environmental disaster along South Africa’s western coastline following the grounding of the Panama-flagged vessel “Ultra Galaxy.” The cargo ship ran aground near Doring Bay, approximately 300 km north of Cape Town, late Tuesday after listing severely. The vessel was abandoned by its 18-member Filipino crew while still at sea, raising concerns about the risk of an oil spill. According to Tebogo Ramatjie, spokesperson for the South African Maritime Safety Authority (SAMSA), salvage operations are proceeding swiftly to mitigate pollution risks and evaluate the condition of the cargo aboard the stranded vessel. Current efforts are focused on preventing potential fuel and oil leaks, as well as recovering the full cargo of fertilizer bags destined for Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Ramatjie noted that despite rough sea conditions caused by recent severe weather fronts affecting South African ports, salvage operations remain unhindered for now. Earlier this week, Transnet, South Africa’s logistics firm, suspended operations at certain ports due to strong winds and heavy seas impacting parts of the country.

Oil import bill up 11% in June on reduced Russian discounts - Economy News India’s crude import bill increased 10.9% in June to $11.1 billion even as the imports volume declined by 5.6%, data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell showed. The increase in import bill can be attributed to the lowering of discounts offered by Russia on its crude oil. The country imported 18.5 million tonnes of crude oil in June compared with 19.6 million tonne in the corresponding period of last fiscal. Russia has become the top supplier of crude oil to Indian refiners post its invasion of Ukraine. The country imported 2.13 million barrels of crude oil per day from Russia last month, up 7.2% from the previous month, according to the data provided by Kpler. This was the highest since May 2023 when imports from Russia stood at 2.15 million barrels per day. During the first quarter of the current fiscal, India’s crude oil imports rose by 3% to 62.0 million tonne valued at $37.5 billion, up from $31.5 billion in the year ago period, as per PPAC data. “The rise in crude oil import bill reflects higher crude oil prices as well as lower discount on imports from Russia,” IDFC First Bank said in a note. During Apr-May, the imputed cost of crude oil from Russia has risen to $84 per barrel, which is similar to the other two key suppliers of crude oil – Iraq ($83/barrel) and Saudi Arabia ($90/barrel), according to the bank. “For the same period in FY24, the discount on Russian crude oil was $12/barrel (on an average vs Iraq and Saudi). As a result, the share of crude oil imports from Russia has reduced to 35% in FYTD25 (Apr-May) in volume terms against 38% in the same period in FY24.” The country’s dependency on import of crude oil during the first quarter of the current fiscal rose to 88.8%, up from 88.3% in the Apr-Jun quarter of FY24 as the domestic production remained stagnant. Upstream companies produced 7.3 million tonnes of crude oil during April to June, unchanged from the same quarter last fiscal. In June too, production remained muted at 2.4 million tonne from last year. Despite the government’s efforts to boost production and reduce dependency on imports, the production has remained stagnant over the last 10 years. So far, the country’s upstream sector companies have explored only 10% of the sedimentary basin. The government is now aiming to increase the explored area to 16% by the end of 2024 after the end of upcoming rounds of bids under Open Acreage Licensing Program. The government also intends to increase the country’s exploration acreage to 1 million square kilometers by 2030. The country’s consumption of petroleum products including gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel among others increased to 60.9 million tonnes during the first three months of FY25 from 58.9 million tonnes in the same period last year.

Nigeria to become net exporter of petroleum products by December, says NNPC - The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited says Nigeria will be a net exporter of petroleum products by December. Mele Kyari, group chief executive officer (GCEO), said this is based on the emerging indicators in the energy and gas sector. He spoke on Monday at the national assembly when economic stakeholders appeared before the senate committee on finance led by Sani Musa, a lawmaker. The indicators, he said, are the Port Harcourt refinery which “would start production next month”, followed by the Warri and Kaduna refineries by December this year. Kyari said there are several comments in the public space about refining and domestic production, including production that would originate from the commissioned Dangote refinery. “Yes, this country, as we have said, will be a net exporter of petroleum products by the end of this year,” he said. “We’re very optimistic that by December, this country will be a net exporter. That means a combination of production coming from us, and also from Dangote refinery and other smaller producing companies that we know are in line to do this. “So I can confirm to you, Mr. Chairman, that by the end of the year, this country will be a net exporter of petroleum products. “Specific to NNPC refineries, we have spoken to a number of your committees, that it is impossible to have the Kaduna refinery come to operation before December, it will get to December, both Warri and Kaduna; but that of Portharcourt will commence production early August this year.” On his part, Muhammad Sani Abdullahi, deputy governor (economic policy), representing Olayemi Cardoso, Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) governor, said the triple challenges of rising inflation, foreign exchange (FX) rate fluctuations, and food inflation, would be a thing of the past soon, as indicators to that effect are already emerging.

Saudi Arabia’s crude exports up 2.51 % to 6.12m bpd: JODI data | Arab News - Saudi Arabia’s crude exports rose to 6.12 million barrels per day in May – up 2.51 percent compared to the previous month, data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative revealed. Data also indicated that the Kingdom’s crude production increased to 8.99 million bpd, reflecting a monthly rise of 0.08 percent. Refinery crude output, representing the processed volume of crude oil yielding gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and heating oil, surged to an almost six-year high. It increased by 17 percent compared to the previous month, reaching 3.026 million bpd, according to JODI data. This also marked a 16 percent increase from the 2.61 million bpd recorded during the same month in 2023. Exports for refinery oil products reached 1.22 million bpd, a 13 percent decline compared to the previous month. The data revealed Saudi demand for petroleum products rose by 75,000 bpd to 2.355 million bpd. As one of the world’s leading oil producers, Saudi Arabia plays a crucial role in supplying these refined products to meet global energy demands. OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, agreed in June to extend most of its substantial oil output cuts into 2024, with plans to gradually phase them out in 2025. This decision aims to support the market amid sluggish global demand growth, high interest rates, and increasing US production. OPEC+ has implemented several deep output cuts since late 2022. The countries participating in the second round of voluntary cuts included Algeria, Gabon, and Kazakhstan, as well Kuwait, Oman, and Russia. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq also took part. When it came to the third round, all countries participated apart from Gabon. OPEC+ also delayed the deadline for an independent assessment of its members’ production capacities from June 2024 to the end of November 2025. These figures will guide the reference production levels for 2026. Saudi Arabia’s direct burn of crude oil, involving the utilization of oil without substantial refining processes, experienced a decrease of 2,000 bpd in May, representing a 0.5 percent decline compared to the preceding month. The total direct burn for the month amounted to 398,000 bpd. Compared to May last year, direct crude usage decreased by 80,000 bpd, a 17 percent decline. The Ministry of Energy aims to enhance the contributions of natural gas and renewable sources as part of the Kingdom’s goal to achieve an optimal, highly efficient, and cost-effective energy mix. This involves replacing liquid fuel with natural gas and integrating renewables to constitute approximately 50 percent of the electricity production energy mix by 2030.

Oil holds ground amid political uncertainty in US, Mideast --Oil held its ground on Monday as downward pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar and concern about demand in top importer China offset support from political uncertainty in the United States and the Middle East. The dollar firmed as investors wagered that the attack on U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump at the weekend has made him more likely to win the election in November. A stronger U.S. currency tends to weigh on demand for dollar-priced oil. Brent crude futures was up 1 cent at $85.04 a barrel by 0825 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 9 cents, or 0.1%, to $82.30. "Markets ... will probably become a little more defensive" in reaction to the Trump assassination attempt," said John Evans at oil broker PVM. "For oil prices, there are no untoward movements," he said, adding that Monday's Chinese economic growth data was disappointing. Crude fell last week after four weeks of gains as hopes of strong U.S. summer demand were countered by concern over demand in China. Chinese data on Monday added to that concern. The world's second-largest economy grew by 4.7% in the April to June quarter, official figures showed, the slowest growth since the first quarter of 2023. On Friday separate figures showed China's crude oil imports fell 2.3% in the first half of this year. However, the volatile situation in the Middle East continues to provide a geopolitical premium for oil, though ample spare capacity held by Saudi Arabia and other members of OPEC has limited price support, analysts say. The oil market is also broadly underpinned by supply cuts from the broader OPEC+ group of producers. Iraq's oil ministry said at the weekend that it will compensate for overproduction since the beginning of 2024. "While fundamentals are still supportive, there are growing demand concerns, largely emanating from China,"

Oil Prices Muted After Shooting at Trump Rally The oil market and the U.S. stock futures were calm early on Monday morning after the U.S. was rattled by the assassination attempt on former president Donald Trump during a rally in Pennsylvania this weekend.Investigation showed that the shooter acted alone – a development that prevented a pronounced negative effect on U.S. markets. S&P 500 and NASDAQ futures were rising in pre-market trading on Monday, pointing to higher opening, as markets do not appear rattled by the shooting at Trump’s rally. As of 7:50 EDT on Monday, the oil markets were calm and almost flat on the day, pressured slightly down by a strong U.S. dollar, which tends to drag oil prices down because it makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies. The U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, traded at $82.07, down by 0.15%. The international benchmark, Brent Crude, had also barely budged and traded at $84.92, down by 0.16% on the day. “USD strength following the attempted assassination of former president Trump over the weekend is putting pressure on oil prices in early morning trading today,” ING commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey wrote in a note on Monday.During the shooting in Pennsylvania, Trump was not seriously injured and traveled on Sunday to Milwaukee. There he will formally receive later this week the nomination of the Republican National Convention as the Republican presidential candidate. President Joe Biden has ordered an investigation into the shooting, in which one person in the crowd was killed and two others were left wounded before U.S. Secret Service agents shot and killed the 20-year-old shooter.The finding that the shooter acted alone may have limited a strong negative reaction in early trading on Monday, Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial, told The Wall Street Journal. Meanwhile, fundamentals in oil remain supportive, but resurfacing concerns about a slowdown in Chinese oil demand growth are weighing down on prices. China’s imports of crude oil slumped by 11% in June from a record-high in the same month of 2023, amid tepid fuel demand and lower run rates at independent refiners. In its monthly report last week, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that underwhelming Chinese consumption is slowing down growth in global oil demand. “Oil consumption in China, long the engine of global oil demand growth, contracted in both April and May, and is now assessed marginally below year earlier levels in 2Q24,” the Paris-based agency said, adding that Chinese demand for industrial fuels and petrochemical feedstocks was particularly weak.

Oil prices post back-to-back losses after weak China data -- Oil futures declined on Monday to tally back-to-back session losses as downbeat Chinese economic data underlined concerns about crude demand. Comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell failed to provide any support for oil, as Powell said he would not provide a signal on the possible timing of the first cut to the central bank's benchmark interest rate. West Texas Intermediate crude CL00 for August delivery CL.1 CLQ24 fell 30 cents, or 0.4%, to settle at $81.91 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after losing 0.5% in Friday's session.September Brent crude BRN00 BRNU24, the global benchmark, declined by 18 cents, or 0.2%, to $84.85 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. August gasoline RBQ24 shed 0.9% to $2.49 a gallon, while August heating oil HOQ24 added 0.2% to $2.51 a gallon.Natural gas for August delivery NGQ24 settled at $2.16 per million British thermal units, down 7.3%. Oil prices ended lower Monday as the market digested "soft economic factors in China, as well as the reaction of the wider markets to the attempted assassination of former U.S. President Donald Trump," the Kansas City energy team at StoneX, led by Alex Hodes, wrote in its Monday newsletter. "China's growth rate is directly related to global economic activity and energy demand," they said. China's economy expanded at a 4.7% annualized pace in the second quarter, the country's statistical agency said Monday, slowing significantly from the 5.3% pace seen in the first quarter. "Given that China is expected to make up the majority of oil demand growth this year, it is not surprising signs of weakness in Chinese demand are a concern," said Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey, commodity strategists at ING, in a note. Still, the overall tone in financial markets was positive Monday, even as oil prices declined after the attempted assassination of Trump. Investors reacted to rising expectations he will win the presidential election in November accompanied by a potential Republican congressional sweep. "Trump's administration has historically prioritized energy independence and economic growth over environmental regulations," said Nigel Green, chief executive officer and founder of deVere Group, in emailed commentary. 'Trump's administration has historically prioritized energy independence and economic growth over environmental regulations.'Nigel Green, deVere Group ?"His past actions, such as rolling back Obama-era climate policies and exiting the Paris Agreement, reflect a preference for less stringent environmental oversight," he said. "Should Trump win the presidency again, a similar approach is expected, which would benefit the energy sector, particularly fossil fuels." The dollar was seen strengthening in early trade on expectations the incident would strengthen Trump's election prospects, analysts said, though the ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY, a measure of the currency against a basket of six major rivals, gave up most of its early Monday gains. A stronger dollar can be a negative for commodities priced in the unit, making them more expensive to users of other currencies. Meanwhile, Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management, told MarketWatch that oil may have recently been getting support from traders hoping that the Fed will cut interest rates this summer and "keep [oil] demand going." In remarks in Washington on Monday, however, Powell said that regarding the timing of a potential first interest-rate cut, he was "not going to be sending any signals, one way or the other, on any particular meeting." In other energy news, prices for natural gas settled with a loss of more than 7%. Bearishness "continues to be the theme of late," wrote Brian Steinkamp, commodity analyst at Schneider Electric, in a daily note. The latest forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration continue to anticipate that by the middle of the week, temperatures are likely be below normal across much of the eastern U.S. over the coming two weeks, he said. That would help dull cooling demand for natural gas.

Oil prices fall on lingering Chinese demand concerns – CNA -- Oil prices slipped on Tuesday on worries about a slowing Chinese economy crimping demand, though a growing consensus that the U.S. Federal Reserve will begin cutting its key interest rate as soon as September limited declines. Brent futures fell 21 cents, or 0.25 per cent, to $84.64 a barrel by 0408 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped 25 cents, or 0.31 per cent, to $81.66. IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong said in an email the weaker run in Chinese economic data "cast some doubts on whether market participants are being overly optimistic around Chinese oil demand outlook". The world's second-largest economy grew 4.7 per cent in April-June, official data showed, its slowest since the first quarter of 2023 and missing a 5.1 per cent forecast in a Reuters poll. It also slowed from the previous quarter's 5.3 per cent expansion, hamstrung by a protracted property downturn and job insecurity. "Its 2Q GDP and retail sales figures had surprised on the downside by a significant margin, while anticipation for stronger stimulus measures at the Third Plenum may face the risks of disappointment," Yeap added, referring to a key economic leadership meeting in Beijing this week. In the U.S., Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Monday the three U.S. inflation readings over the second quarter of this year "add somewhat to confidence" that the pace of price increases is returning to the central bank's target in a sustainable fashion, remarks market participants interpreted as indicating a turn to interest rate cuts may not be far off. Lower interest rates decrease the cost of borrowing, which can boost economic activity and oil demand. Key U.S. economic data has started to show signs of softness, which could quicken the Fed's decision on monetary policy easing, with cuts likely in September and December, according to CME FedWatch Tool, said OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong in a client note. On the supply side, Houthi fighters in Yemen - responding to Israel's bombardment of Gaza - targeted three vessels, including an oil tanker, in the Red and Mediterranean seas with ballistic missiles, drones and booby-trapped boats, they said on Monday. While crisis in the Middle East has not impacted supply, attacks on ships in the Red Sea has forced vessels to take longer routes, meaning oil remains on the water for longer.

Oil Falls Most in Three Weeks as Dollar Strengthens - Oil fell the most in more than three weeks as traders eyed a stronger dollar and signs of weaker demand, which have triggered algorithmic selling. West Texas Intermediate dropped 1.4% to settle below $81 a barrel on Tuesday. The dollar strengthened for a second day, making commodities priced into the currency more expensive. WTI futures have been testing their 100-day moving average, which has served as a support level for a month. Trend-following algorithms have been poised for selling since the beginning of the week, with the window for large-scale liquidations remaining open, Daniel Ghali, a commodity strategist at TD Securities, wrote in a note to clients. “With our gauge of global commodity demand trending notably lower, we expect downside pressures to continue to build without an additional boost to supply risk,” wrote Ghali. In another sign of short-term cooling, key timespreads have softened in recent days. Premiums of gasoline over crude fell to the lowest in almost a month. Though still higher for the year, oil has largely swung between $75 and $95 as OPEC+ supply cuts vie with a cautious outlook for Chinese consumption. WTI for August delivery fell $1.15 to settle at $80.76 a barrel in New York. Brent for September settlement fell $1.12 to settle at $83.73 a barrel.

Chinese Demand Concerns Weigh on Oil Prices -- Oil prices continued to be weighed down in Asian trade on Wednesday by growing concerns about China’s economic growth and oil demand which were offsetting an estimated drop in U.S. crude oil inventories. In Asian trade, both benchmarks were dropping by around 0.2%, with the U.S. WTI Crude benchmark clawing back to the $80 per barrel handle after falling to $79.50 earlier on Wednesday.The international benchmark, Brent Crude, had dropped to about $83.60, as concerns about slowing Chinese economic and oil demand growth put downward pressure on prices for a third consecutive day this week.A strong U.S. dollar weighed on oil prices earlier this week. A strengthening greenback tends to drag oil prices down because it makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.This added to several bearish data points from China, including indications of weak fuel demand and economic growth coming in lower-than-expected for the second quarter. China’s GDP growth was 4.7% in the second quarter, below expectations of 5.1%. Retail sales in June were also weaker than anticipated.Moreover, refinery output in the world’s top crude oil importer dropped by 3.7% in June compared to the same month last year, amid tepid fuel demand and weakening refining margins, which prompted independent refiners to slash crude processing rates. Data from last week showed that China’s imports of crude oil slumped by 11% in June from a record high in the same month of 2023, due to weak demand and refining margins. In its monthly report last week, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that underwhelming Chinese consumption is slowing down growth in global oil demand. All these concerns have weighed on oil prices, but an estimated drop of 4.44 million barrels in U.S. crude inventories and rising chances for a Fed interest rate cut in September prevented WTI prices from staying below $80 a barrel early on Wednesday.

WTI Extends Gains As Crude Inventories Tumble To Lowest Since Feb -- Oil prices are surging this morning, playing catch up to gold and crypto, with all eyes on the official inventory and supply data for what happens next. DOE

• Crude -4.87mm (-275k exp)
• Cushing -875k
• Gasoline +3.328mm
• Distillates +3.454mm

US crude stocks fell for the third straight week (more than expected).This draw dragged crude stocks down to their lowest since February... The Biden admin added 650k barrels to SPR last week...

Oil sheds China demand worries, gains 1% on weaker US dollar & drop in stockpiles; Brent nears $85/bbl --Crude oil prices climbed about one per cent on Wednesday, July 17, on a bigger-than-expected weekly drop in US crude stockpiles. A weaker US dollar against other currencies overshadowed signs of lower economic growth in China.Brent futures rose 96 cents, or 1.2 per cent, to $84.69 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.36, or 1.7 per cent, to $82.12. Coming to domestic prices, crude oil futures last traded 1.95 per cent higher at ₹6,911 per barrel on the muti-commodity exchange (MCX). On Tuesday, Brent closed at its lowest since June 14, and WTI at its lowest since June 21. -The premium of Brent over WTI narrowed to around $3.82 a barrel, its lowest since October. That narrowing spread means energy firms have less reason to spend money to send ships to the U.S. to pick up crude for export. In the US, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said energy firms pulled 4.9 million barrels of crude from storage during the week ended July 12. That compares with a drop of 4.4 million barrels in a report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) trade group. In US refining news, the diesel and 321 crack spreads, which measure refining profit margins, fell to their lowest levels since December 2021 and January 2024, respectively. A weaker US dollar also helped support oil prices after it fell to a 17-week low against a basket of other major currencies. A weaker dollar can boost demand for oil by making greenback-denominated commodities like oil cheaper for holders of other currencies. Rising geopolitical risk tensions in the Middle East and Europe, which could continue to fuel risks, also supported crude prices. A Liberia-flagged oil tanker was assessing damage and investigating a potential oil spill after it was attacked in the Red Sea by Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen. China, the world's top oil importer, saw its economy grow 4.7 per cent in the second quarter, the slowest growth since the first quarter of 2023, capping crude price gains.

The Oil Market Rallied Higher on Wednesday in Light of the Larger Than Expected Fall in U.S. Crude Oil Stocks The oil market rallied higher on Wednesday in light of the larger than expected fall in U.S. crude oil stocks and a weaker U.S. dollar offsetting any pressure from concerns over China’s weakening oil demand. The market posted a low of $80.45 in overnight trading before it bounced higher and never looked back. The market was well supported by the crude stocks draw of 4.4 million barrels reported by the API late Tuesday. The crude market was further supported and extended its gains to over $2.10 as it posted a high of $82.94 in afternoon trading following the release of the EIA report, which showed a larger than expected draw of 4.87 million barrels on Wednesday morning. The market retraced more than 62% of its move from a high of $84.52 to a low of $80.22 as it rallied higher ahead of the close. The August WTI contract ended the session up $2.09 at $82.85 and the September Brent contract settled up $1.35 at $85.08. The product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 2.52 cents at $2.4940 and the RB market settling up 2.38 cents at $2.5013. The EIA reported that U.S. crude oil stocks fell more than expected, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased. Crude inventories fell by 4.9 million barrels to 440.2 million barrels in the week ending July 12th. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub fell by 875,000 barrels last week. Gasoline stocks increased by 3.3 million barrels in the week ending 233 million barrels.​ Distillate stocks increased by 3.5 million barrels in the week to 128.1 million barrels, compared with expectations for an 800,000 barrel decline. The EIA reported that U.S. imports of crude oil from Canada increased last week to its highest level on record, due to the startup of the newly expanded Trans Mountain pipeline. Imports increased by 807,000 bpd to 4.4 million bpd in the week ending July 12th, the largest gain since March 2023. The Trans Mountain expansion started operations in May and has nearly tripled shipping capacity to Canada’s Pacific Coast to 890,000 bpd. JP Morgan said it estimates the equilibrium price of WTI at around $70/barrel. It believes that even at $60/barrel, WTI prices are too low to incentivize production, potentially leading to an increase in price to $100/barrel the following year. IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 559,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending July 19th, cutting available refining capacity by 263,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 288,000 bpd in the week ending July 26th. Exxon Mobil shut down its 251,800 bpd refinery at Joliet, Illinois due to a power outage after a storm. The loss of power caused a flaring incident on Monday night. The plant went down due to heavy wind and rain. New wildfires erupted across Alberta since late Tuesday, with the first potentially threatening more than 400,000 bpd of oil production. Many of the fires are burning south of the unofficial oil sands capital of Fort McMurray. One of the fires is within 6.2 miles of MEG Energy Corp’s Christina Lake site, which produced almost 100,000 bpd in May. Another fire is also within 6 miles of Imperial Oil Ltd’s Cold Lake site, which produces 19,000 bpd and a third is close to Canadian Natural Resources’ Kirby oil sands. Imperial Oil said it started removing non-essential workers from its Kearl oil sands mine.

Oil rises as US rate-cut hopes outweigh economic slowdown signals – CNA - Oil prices edged higher on Thursday as rising expectations that the Federal Reserve would soon cut interest rates, which could boost oil demand, outweighed concerns about an economic slowdown that could dampen fuel consumption. Brent futures were up 20 cent to $85.28 a barrel by 1:10 p.m. EDT (1710 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up 40 cents at $83.25. The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week, while initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 20,000 to a seasonally adjusted 243,000 for the week ended July 1. The data strengthened the case for the Fed to speed up rate- cutting plans, which could spur more spending on oil. "I believe that healthy expectations of a Fed rate cut in the not-so-distant future will limit downside," Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM told Reuters. Fed officials said on Wednesday the U.S. central bank is closer to cutting rates given inflation's improved trajectory and a labor market in better balance, possibly setting the stage for a reduction in borrowing costs in September. U.S. economic activity expanded at a slight to modest pace from late May through early July, with firms expecting slower growth ahead, according to a report released by the Fed on Wednesday. The rising jobless claims, however, also signalled an economic easing that could cut into crude demand, and kept oil prices from moving higher. "The reality on the ground is that we've got a slowing economy that could potentially soften crude oil demand," Despite government data on Wednesday that showed U.S. crude inventories fell by 4.9 million barrels last week, more than forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll, weak U.S. gasoline demand kept oil prices from moving higher, Kilduff said. [EIA/S] Chinese economic growth also weighed on oil prices. Chinese leaders signalled on Thursday that Beijing would stay the course with economic policy, though few concrete details were disclosed. Together, those events helped to check investor hopes of a push to boost consumption in the world's second-largest economy.

Oil prices settle slightly lower even as weaker US jobs data firm up rate-cut bets -- Oil prices settled lower Thursday, even as further signs of weakness in the labor market boosted hopes for rate cuts just a day after U.S. inventories fell much more than expected. At 14:30 ET (18:30 GMT), West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped 0.04% to $82.82 a barrel, while Brent oil futures expiring in September fell 0.04% to $85.211 a barrel, while Data released earlier Thursday showed that the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 20,000 to a seasonally adjusted 243,000 for the week ended July 13, the Labor Department said on Thursday, above the 229,000 expected. Claims were also revised lower in the prior week, while the unemployment rate rose to a 2-1/2-year high of 4.1% in June. Cooling in the labor market lifted bets on U.S. rate cuts easing some concerns about slowing economic activity in the world's largest crude consumer. US crude inventories see sustained draws Official data from the Energy Information Administration, released on Wednesday, showed U.S. oil inventories shrank by nearly 4.9 million barrels, compared to expectations for a 0.9 million barrels. The data showed U.S. inventories falling for a third straight week, as demand in the world’s biggest fuel importer appeared to be picking up with the travel-heavy summer season. But the picture surrounding the weekly inventory draw was muddied by builds in distillates and gasoline inventories. China concerns remain in play Still, crude markets have been nursing steep losses over the past week, as a string of weak economic readings from top importer China drummed up concerns over slowing global demand. Data released earlier in the week showed that economic growth in the world’s biggest oil importer slowed in the second quarter. Concerns over increased trade tensions with the U.S. also grew after a Bloomberg report said the U.S. government was considering stricter restrictions on China’s technology and chipmaking sectors. Such a move could draw ire from Beijing, sparking a renewed trade war between the two countries.

Oil Prices Are Heading for a Second Consecutive Weekly Decline Oil prices fell in Friday trade in Asia and were poised for a second straight weekly decline as concerns about demand more than offset falling U.S. crude inventories and rising odds of a September interest rate cut from the Fed. Early on Friday, the U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, was down by 0.6% and traded at around $82.30, while Brent Crude, the international benchmark, fell by 0.56% to $84.63. Both benchmarks were on track to post a weekly decline of about 0.3%. Prices rose on Wednesday and early on Thursday, pushed up by a larger-than-expected U.S. crude inventory draw the EIA reported on Wednesday morning. The EIA’s weekly inventory report showed an inventory draw of 4.9 million barrels of commercial crude stocks for the week to July 12—larger than expected. The effect of the drop in U.S. crude stocks faded after a day as China’s leadership party plenum failed to convince markets that the authorities will be employing major stimulus measures to revive the economy, which grew at a slower pace than expected in the second quarter.The Communist Party’s Central Committee meeting this week appeared not to address pressing economic issues, and its final press release was vague and clichéd, observers told VOA. “It does not make macroeconomic adjustments at all but is like a philosophical article, which is basically a cliché,” Shi He-ling, an associate professor of economics at Monash Business School at Monash University in Caulfield, Australia, told VOA.Oil prices have been pressured down by concerns about China’s oil demand and the trajectory of its economic growth.“The impact of Wednesday’s surprise data showing a weekly plunge in US crude inventory has faded and attention has snapped back to signs of tepid oil appetite across the globe and especially in Asia, which dominates demand growth,” Vanda Insights said early on Friday.Capping oil price losses this week were the words of Fed Chair Jerome Powell that recent inflation data “add somewhat to confidence” that policymakers have made good progress on curbing inflation. The remarks have given hope to the market that a September cut is coming.Wildfires in Canada threatening oil sands production also acted as a firmer floor under prices. This week, MEG Energy proactively began to evacuate non-essential personnel from it Christina Lake Regional Project (CLRP) as a result of nearby wildfires.

Oil settles at one-month low on Gaza ceasefire hopes (Reuters) - Oil prices settled over $2 lower on Friday at their lowest level since mid-June as investors eyed a possible ceasefire in Gaza, while a strengthened dollar drove values down further. Brent crude prices settled down $2.48, or 2.9%, to $82.63 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped $2.69, or 3.3%, to $80.13.U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said a long-sought ceasefire between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas was within sight."I believe we're inside the 10-yard line and driving toward the goal line in getting an agreement that would produce a ceasefire, get the hostages home and put us on a better track to trying to build lasting peace and stability," Blinken said, using a football analogy.The war in Gaza has led investors to price in a risk premium when trading oil, as tensions threaten global supplies.If a ceasefire is reached, the Iran-backed Houthi rebels could ease their attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea, since the group declared the attacks in support of Hamas. "Geopolitics is starting to ease just a little bit so that ought to work in our favor, following the news of this ceasefire," The United Nations' highest court said Israel's occupation of Palestinian territories and its settlements there are illegal and should be withdrawn as soon as possible, further buoying hopes of an end to the conflict. The U.S. dollar index climbed after stronger-than-expected data on the U.S. labor market and manufacturing this week, pressuring oil prices, said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group.A stronger U.S. currency dampens demand for dollar-denominated oil from buyers holding other currencies.Chinese officials acknowledged the sweeping list of economic goals reemphasized at the end of a Communist Party meeting this week contained "many complex contradictions", pointing to a bumpy road for policy implementation.China's economy grew by a slower-than-expected 4.7% in the second quarter, official data showed, sparking concerns over its demand for oil.Lending some support to prices, energy services firm Baker Hughes said oil rigs fell by one to 477 this week, their lowest since December 2021.A global tech outage disrupted operations in multiple industries, with airlines halting flights, some broadcasters going off air and sectors from banking to healthcare hit by system problems.Meanwhile, two large oil tankers were on fire after colliding near Singapore.Singapore is Asia's biggest oil trading hub and the world's largest bunkering port. Its surrounding waters are vital trade waterways between Asia and Europe and the Middle East and among the busiest global sea lanes

Oil tanker capsizes southeast of Oman's Ras Madrakah, news agency says - A Comorian-flagged oil tanker capsized 25 nautical miles southeast of Oman's Ras Madrakah, Omani state news agency ONA reported on Monday, citing Oman's Maritime Security Centre. The centre said a search-and-rescue operation was activated in coordination with authorities. The cause of the incident was not immediately known.

Oil tanker capsizes off Oman, nine of sixteen crew members rescued - Indian Navy warship INS Teg on Wednesday, July 17 rescued nine crew members, including eight Indian nationals and one Sri Lankan, who went missing after an oil tanker capsized off the coast of Oman. The Indian Navy said in a post on X on Wednesday evening: "#IndianNavy's mission deployed warship #INSTeg, rendering SAR assistance for the capsized Oil Tanker MV #PrestigeFalcon, has rescued 9 (8 Indians & 1 Sri Lankan) personnel. The MV had capsized about 25 NM southeast of Ras Madrakah, #Oman on July 15 and efforts in coordination with Oman Authorities are in progress since July 16. "The MV is reported to have had a total of 16 crew, including 13 Indians and 3 Sri Lankans. The #SearchAndRescue by Indian Omani assets is being undertaken in challenging weather conditions as the area is experiencing rough sea & strong winds. #IndiaNavy's Long Range Maritime Reconnaissance aircraft P8I is also assisting in the search for survivors," it added. The MT Falcon Prestige, a Comoros-flagged oil tanker, with 16 crew members had capsized near the port town of Duqn in Oman on Monday. The Indian Embassy in Muscat said in a post on X: "Embassy is coordinating SAR ops with Omani authorities and @indiannavy for MT Prestige Falcon, a Comoros flagged vessel that capsized off the coast of Oman on July 15. Nine crew including 8 Indians have been rescued today by INS Teg. Search for the remaining survivors continues."

Dramatic Footage Shows Oil Tanker Hit By Kamikaze Boat Drone In Red Sea -- Dramatic footage has surfaced on X showing what appears to be an unmanned suicide surface drone smashing into the side of a crude tanker on Monday about 100 nautical miles northwest of Yemen's port city of Hodeidah. Reuters reports the Liberia-flagged oil tanker Chios Lion was hit on its portside by an unmanned watercraft, adding there is a potential risk of an oil spill. "While originally headed south, following the attack the vessel turned around and back north out of the threat area to further assess damage and investigate potential oil spillage," the Joint Maritime Information Center wrote in a statement. Houthis published footage of the attack on X. VIDEO OF THE DAY: The Houthis of Yemen have released a propaganda video of their attack against the oil tanker MT Chios Lion using an uncrewed surface vessel (USV). The oil tanker suffered minor damage and the crew is safe | #OOTT pic.twitter.com/CdMr1kz26v Intel firm Conflict and Environment Observatory wrote on X that satellite imagery shows Chios Lion likely suffered damage during the attack, resulting in an oil slick. Yesterday's #Sentinel2 imagery in proximity to the reported #Houthi strike on the #ChiosLion oil tanker in the #RedSea off #Yemen suggests that the damaged vessel was releasing oil. The apparent slick is 220km long https://t.co/SueseALWlo #OOTT pic.twitter.com/5WQ8MC8URM "The Houthis will continue attacks that rattle commercial shipping in the Red Sea as they are buoyed by several ongoing factors, including their own view that attacks to date have forced massive maritime distortions, a belief that ongoing talks with Saudi Arabia - backed by threats to resume attacks on the kingdom - are a source of leverage, and their unwavering commitment to remaining the strongest political and military actor in Yemen...In the coming days to weeks, the US and Israel will start to stress-test Houthi resilience with more meaningful military actions, underscoring why the market may have to price in more geopolitical risk in crude the coming days to weeks," Rapidan Energy Group's Scott Modell stated. The Houthis have been attacking commercial vessels in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden since November in a campaign they say is in solidarity with Palestinians amid the Gaza war. This comes as the Biden administration's efforts to ensure freedom of navigation via Operation Prosperity Guardian continue to fail on the critical maritime chokepoint.

Large Oil Slick Spotted in Red Sea After Explosive Tanker Attack - An oil slick extending more than 125 miles appeared in the Red Sea, satellite images show, a fresh environmental disaster in a waterway where commercial ships are under siege from attacks by Yemen’s Houthi militants. The slick extends from about 60 miles northwest of the Yemeni city of Hodeidah and continues northbound, the pictures show. It appears in images from the Sentinel 2 satellite that were taken on July 16 and wasn’t previously present on July 14. It wasn’t clear which vessel caused the spill, or whether it was a direct result of a Houthi attack, but multiple ships have been targeted in the region in recent days, including one — the Chios Lion — with a sea drone. That carrier was investigating a possible oil spill, the UK Navy said Tuesday. The Chios Lion collected 90,000 tons, about 600,000 barrels, of fuel oil from Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk on July 2 and was heading to China, according to shipping information compiled by Bloomberg. Most seagoing merchant ships also use fuel oil for power. Stealth Maritime, the vessel’s manager, said a small amount of damage was caused to the vessel and the crew is unharmed. The firm declined to comment on whether oil is spilling from the tanker. The Houthis have been attacking vessels in the Red Sea for months in protest at Israel’s war with Hamas. Although many ships are avoiding the area, instead sailing thousands of miles around Africa, some continue to run the gauntlet. Attacks ramped up last month, which was the most active so far this year, culminating in the sinking of a second ship with a sea drone. Earlier in the year when the Houthis sank a vessel called the Rubymar there was a fertilizer spill. Other ships have been damaged and either continued to their destinations or awaited salvage by specialists. Based on the shape of the spill, its color and the way it is spreading on the surface of the sea, it is likely fuel oil, according to Wim Zwijnenburg, a project leader at Netherlands-based PAX, who’s spent 10 years studying satellite images to identify the environmental impacts that conflicts cause. Surface winds are pushing the slick to the south, and two large gyres in the surface currents are making the slick very convoluted, according to John Amos, CEO of the investigative nonprofit SkyTruth.

Oil slick stretching 200km seen near Chios Lion tanker after Houthi attack in Red Sea - (video of tanker explosion) An oil slick more than 200km long has been spotted near an oil tanker struck by Houthi explosive drone boats in the Red Sea, satellite images revealed on Wednesday. The Chios Lion, a Liberia-flagged tanker carrying a cargo of crude oil, was shown sustaining catastrophic damage as explosive drone boats rammed into its side in a video released by the group on Tuesday evening. The attack was part of a swarm of strikes by the Houthis on the vessel and another ship sailing about 185km north-west of Yemen’s port city of Hodeidah. The Conflict and Environment Observatory, an environmental NGO, said the oil slick was 220km long. Initial reports suggested the Chios Lion had weathered the initial attack with minimal damage. “While originally headed south, following the attack the vessel turned around and back north out of the threat area to further assess damage and investigate potential oil spillage,” said the Joint Maritime Information Centre, a press office for the international coalition trying to safeguard the waterway and counter Houthi attacks. It said the captain and crew were safe. Wim Zwijnenburg, an expert on the environmental impact of conflict, said the spill will “likely cause the biggest impact from coastal pollution as the oil does not dilute easily, thus affecting the marine life on the shore”. The Red Sea, a transit point for about 12 per cent of the world's maritime trade, is home to unique coral reefs. “The area is facing frequent pollution from marine traffic passing through, including dumping of wastewater and attacks like these just add to an accumulation of pollutants in a fragile ecosystem,” Mr Zwijnenburg told The National. “Usually ecosystems are pretty resilient, but these kind of mass pollution events are not helping." While the spill stretches for many kilometres, it remains unclear exactly how much oil has leaked. Shipping data says the Chios Lion is 243 metres long, which places it in the Aframax category of oil tankers. These vessels are much smaller than the largest oil tankers in the Ultra Large class, which can carry up to 3.7 million barrels of oil, but they can still hold between 500,000 and 700,000 barrels of crude. Dean Mikkelsen, a security consultant focused on the region, said the vessel was probably double-hulled, based on information from when it was built, 14 years ago. Double-hulled tankers were introduced in the early 1990s following a series of international treaties in the wake of the Exxon Valdez oil spill disaster, and have become an increasingly common feature on such carriers. But they are designed to minimise the impact of tankers running aground, or colliding with other ships, rather than explosive attacks. Houthi footage of the attack shows blazing oil spilling across the water./p>

US Launches Heavy Strikes in Yemen - The US has launched several rounds of strikes on Yemen over the past few days as its war against the Houthis in the Red Sea continues.US Central Command reported fresh strikes on Houthi-controlled Yemen, which is where most of the country’s population lives, on July 11, July 12, and July 14. Yemeni media reported the attacks each day and described them as joint US-British strikes, although it’s unclear if the UK was involved.In the latest attack on Sunday, Yemen’s SABA news agency reported three strikes in the Red Sea province of Hodeidah. “A security source told SABAthat the US-British aggression aircraft targeted Hodeidah International Airport with two raids, and launched a raid on the Bheisi area of Alluheyah district,” the news agency said.There’s no indication if there were casualties in the three days of US strikes on Yemen. CENTCOM typically claims that its strikes destroy Houthi drones or some other type of military equipment that it deems a threat. According to the Yemen Data Project, joint US-British airstrikeskilled 16 Yemeni civilians on May 30.CENTCOM has also reported that US naval forces have been downing and intercepting Houthi missiles and drones. The US has already spent over $1 billion on munitions in its new war with the Houthis in what US commanders are calling the largest US naval battle since World War II.Since the US and the UK began bombing Yemen in January, the Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, have only escalated their attacks on Israel-linked and other commercial shipping in the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and beyond. There were more Houthi attacks on shipping in Junethan in any other month of this year.The Houthis have been clear the only way they’ll stop their attacks is if there’s a ceasefire in Gaza. Tim Lenderking, the US’s envoy to Yemen, has acknowledged the Houthis would likely be true to their word, but the US continues to support Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza instead of pushing for a unilateral ceasefire.The US backed a brutal Saudi/UAE war against the Houthis from 2015-2022 that involved heavy airstrikes and a blockade, and the Houthis only became a more capable fighting force during that time.The war killed at least 377,000 people, with more than half dying of starvation and disease caused by the siege. A ceasefire between the Houthis and Saudis has held relatively well since April 2022, but new US sanctions are now blocking the implementation of a lasting peace deal.

Israeli military says it hit Houthi targets in Yemen -- The Israeli military said Saturday that it has hit Houthi military targets in Yemen as an act of “self-defense.”“A short while ago, [Israel Defense Forces (IDF)] fighter jets struck military targets of the Houthi terrorist regime in the area of the Al Hudaydah Port in Yemen in response to the hundreds of attacks carried out against the State of Israel in recent months,” the IDF said in its afternoon post.A later post by the IDF featured a video of Israeli military spokesperson Daniel Hagari in which he said that in recent “months, the Houthi terrorist group, Iran’s terror proxy in Yemen, has launched over 200 aerial attacks against Israeli civilians and infrastructures.”“On Friday morning, in one of these [unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) ] attacks, the Houthis fired an Iranian explosive UAV from Yemen into Israeli territory,” Hagari said in the video. Hagari added that the UAV hit an apartment building in Tel Aviv, near the U.S. Embassy Branch Office, resulting in the death of an Israeli.“The Houthis’ attacks are acts of aggression, a violation of international law and a threat to the international peace and security,” Hagari continued. “Today, Israel stepped up its actions in self-defense against these attacks. The Israeli Air Force conducted precise strikes on Houthi military targets in Yemen.”The Associated Press reported that the Ministry of Health in the Yemeni city of Sanaa said due to the strikes, an initial amount of 80 people were injured. A spokesperson for the Houthis, Mohammed Abdulsalam, said in a post on X the “blatant Israeli aggression” had gone after facilities holding fuel and a power station.Some health officials based in Yemen also said the strikes caused the deaths of multiple people.

Israeli airstrikes massacre hundreds across Gaza over the weekend - The Gaza Health Ministry reported on Sunday that the Israeli military has killed hundreds and injured 400 others in multiple airstrikes on the Palestinian enclave since Saturday. In one of the deadliest attacks of the nine-month Gaza genocide, a massive airstrike hit an area designated as a humanitarian zone at al-Mawasi on Saturday, killing 92 and wounding 300. Palestinians had fled to the coastal town in southern Gaza near Khan Younis and Rafah to shelter, mostly in tents and with few basic services or supplies. Eyewitness accounts of the impact of the strike said it looked like an earthquake had hit the area. Reuters reported that: Footage of the aftermath showed a huge crater, charred tents and burnt-out cars. Victims were carried on the hoods and in the hatchbacks of cars, on donkey carts and on carpets. A report by the Associated Press said: “The blast threw a 2-year-old child into the air and the mother was missing,” according to Louise Wateridge, a spokesperson for the UN agency for Palestinian refugees. The AP report added: Another boy had his feet blown off, while an 8-year-old boy was killed. “They told me to go there to be safe,” his grieving mother told her of the area struck. The Gaza Health Ministry said late Saturday, “A number of victims are still under the rubble and on the roads, and ambulance and civil defense crews are unable to reach them.” Maha Hussaini, from the Euro-Med Human Rights Monitor, told Al Jazeera the attack was nothing new. “Areas where displaced Palestinians were forced to go have been under continuous bombardment. This has been ongoing for nine months straight,” she said. The policy of forced evacuation and relocation of Palestinians into so-called “safe zones” has been used repeatedly by the Israeli government as a means of terrorizing defenseless civilian populations with murderous air assaults. “BBC Verify” analyzed footage of the aftermath of the strike and confirmed that it took place within “an area shown on the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) website as a humanitarian zone.” Al Jazeera reported that most cities in the occupied West Bank went on a general strike on Sunday and protests took place in the cities of Jenin, Hebron and Tubas on Saturday night to denounce the barbaric Israeli attack at al-Mawasi. Reuters reported that many of those wounded in the strike, including women and children, were taken to the nearby Nasser Hospital, “which hospital officials said had been overwhelmed and was ‘no longer able to function’ due to the intensity of the Israeli offensive and an acute shortage of medical supplies.” The Israeli government justified the massacre by claiming it was targeting Hamas commander Mohammed Deif. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said “there still isn’t absolute certainty” that Deif was killed in the strike. Hamas rejected the claim that Deif was in the area, saying, “These false claims are merely a cover-up for the scale of the horrific massacre.”

UNRWA Headquarters in Israel 'Flattened' by Israeli Military - The head of the UN’s Palestinian relief agency, UNRWA, said Monday that the organization’s headquarters in Gaza City have been “flattened” as Israel has escalated attacks across the Gaza Strip.“Shocking,” UNRWA chief Philippe Lazzarini wrote on X. “UNRWA headquarters in Gaza, turned into a battlefield & now flattened. Another episode in the blatant disregard of international humanitarian law.”The Israeli military has waged war against UNRWA in Gaza, killing nearly 200 of the aid agency’s employees. Israel also accused 12 UNRWA employees of participating in the October 7 attacks on southern Israel but hasn’t produced evidence for the claim.The US and other Western countries immediately suspended funding for UNRWA based on Israel’s claims. In March, President Biden signed a bill into law prohibiting further US funding for the agency until at least 2025.In contrast, extensive evidence of Israeli war crimes has not led to any reductions in US funding for the Israeli military. Instead, the president signed legislation giving Israel another $17 billion in military aid on top of the $3.8 billion it receives each year.

Netanyahu Blocks Order To Build Field Hospital for Gaza Children - Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant announced Wednesday that the Israeli military was setting up a field hospital inside Israel to treat Palestinian children from Gaza, but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vetoed the plan. Netanyahu’s office said that it informed Gallant in writing that the prime minister does approve establishing a “temporary hospital” for Gaza’s children, and therefore, it would “not be established.”An official in the Israeli Defense Ministry told The Times of Israel that Netanyahu blocked the hospital for “political reasons.”Netanyahu could come under criticism from extremist members of his coalition government for enabling the treatment of Palestinian children, which includes not only kids wounded by Israeli airstrikes but also newborn babies who are dying due to a lack of nutrition since their malnourished mothers cannot breastfeed.Some children have been evacuated into Egypt for medical care, but since Israel captured the Rafah border crossing on May 7, that vital lifeline has been cut off.According to Gaza’s Health Ministry, nearly 16,000 children have been killed by the Israeli assault on Gaza, and about 38,000 have been wounded, which includes many amputees. Due to the Israeli siege, children’s limbshave been amputated without anesthetics.Foreign doctors and health workers who volunteered at Gaza hospitals have recalled horrific scenes. Nick Maynard, a British surgeon who worked at Gaza’s al-Aqsa Hospital, recalled a story about a young girl who was left to die on the hospital floor. “One child that I’ll never forget had burned so bad you could see her facial bones,” Maynard said. “We knew there was no chance of her surviving that, but there was no morphine to give her. So, not only was she inevitably going to die, but she would die in agony. And what made it even worse was that there was nowhere for her to go and die, so she was just left on the floor of the emergency department to die.”

Poland Considering Shooting Down Russian Missiles Over Ukraine, But Wants NATO Support - Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski said Friday that Poland was “exploring” the idea of shooting down Russian missiles over Ukraine if they’re deemed a threat to Polish territory.Poland recently signed a bilateral security deal with Ukraine, whichUkrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said included a mechanism for Poland to intercept Russian missiles, but Sikorski said it was still just an idea.“At this stage, this is an idea. What our agreement said is we will explore this idea,” Sikorski said in a speech at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington DC, according to POLITICO.Sikorski said Poland would have the right to intercept Russian missiles if they were entering Polish territory by mistake, but said there was a “dilemma” that the debris could cause damage if shot down over Poland.“The Ukrainians are saying, ‘Please, we will not mind, do it over our airspace when they’re in imminent danger of crossing into Polish territory.’ To my mind, that’s self-defense, but we are exploring the idea,” he said.Russian missiles have entered Polish airspace during Russian bombardments of Ukraine, but only briefly. Back in November 2022, a Ukrainian air defense missile landed in Poland and killed two civilians. Ukrainian officials initially claimed it was a Russian missile, likely in an attempt to get NATO to directly intervene in the war.A few days before Sikorski’s comments, Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysh said Poland would only shoot down Russian missiles over Ukraine if NATO agreed with the plan. “If the alliance does not make such a decision, then Poland should in no way make such decisions alone,” he said. For now, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg is ruling out the idea. He was asked on Sunday about the possibility of Poland shooting down Russian missiles and said, “NATO’s policy is unchanged – we will not be involved in this conflict. We will not become part of the conflict. So we support Ukraine in the destruction of Russian aircraft, but NATO will not be directly involved.”

NATO Appoints Senior Official To Represent Alliance in Ukraine -On Wednesday, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg announced the alliance was appointing a senior official to represent its interests in Ukraine, following up on a commitment made during last week’s summit in Washington.Stoltenberg said the role would be filled by Patrick Turner, a British official who, according to a NATO press release, “previously served as NATO Assistant Secretary General for Operations and as Assistant Secretary-General for Defence Policy and Planning, as well as in a range of senior civil service positions for the United Kingdom.”Turner is expected to take up the role in Kyiv in September 2024. “As the Senior Representative, Mr Turner will head the NRU (NATO Representation in Ukraine) and act as a focal point for NATO’s engagement with the Ukrainian authorities in Kyiv,” Stoltenberg said.The plan to station a civilian official in Ukraine was one of several pledges NATO made during the summit related to the proxy war. The alliance also vowed to provide at least $43 billion in military aid for 2025 and is in the process of forming a new command center in Wiesbaden, Germany, to oversee the training and arming of Ukrainian forces.The purpose of the command center is to have NATO take over some duties currently filled by the US in what some officials have described as a way to “Trump-proof” support for Ukraine. The idea is if a future administration wants to wind down aid to Ukraine, NATO would be able to continue the proxy war. But the effort will still be hugely reliant on US funding.

Members of European Parliament Want To Punish Hungary for Orban's Peace Mission - Dozens of members of the European Parliament are fuming over Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s recent push for a peace deal in Ukraine, which he began when Hungary took over the rotating EU presidency.Sixty-three members of the 705-seat European Parliament sent a letter to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and other top EU leaders calling for Hungary to be punished for Orban’s push for peace, which has involved trips to Kyiv, Moscow, and Beijing.“[Orban] undertook several diplomatic visits, notably to visit Putin in Russia and Xi Jinping in China, during which he intentionally misrepresented his empowerment,” the MEPs wrote, according toPOLITICO.“This requires real actions, such as suspending Hungary’s voting rights in the Council, since practice has shown that mere verbal condemnations of this situation have no effect,” the MEPs added.EU officials have insisted that Orban doesn’t represent the European bloc despite him taking over the presidency on July 1. During his recent trip, the Hungarian leader stressed the need for dialogue with Russia, which has been a consistent position of his, putting him at odds with much of the EU and NATO.“We cannot achieve peace without dialogue and diplomatic channels,”Orban said at the Kremlin. “I have experienced that the positions are far from each other, but in terms of the restoration of dialogue, the first important step was taken today.”There are signs that Orban’s efforts and the possibility of a future Trump administration wanting to wind down US involvement in the war are having an impact. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said this weekthat Russia should attend the next “peace summit” he organizes. Russia had not been invited to participate in the previous one.