reality is only those delusions that we have in common...

Showing posts with label cash for clunkers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label cash for clunkers. Show all posts

Saturday, August 15, 2009

week ending Aug 15

"Who owns the Fed?" - I don't really care who nominally owns the Fed. What matters is how it acts, and what functions it performs.

In Defense of the Federal Reserve - If Congress has just enough leverage over the Fed so as to make the latter beholden to the former in some manner -- the proposed audits would be enough to accomplish this -- it could easily give the Fed grief for politically unpopular policies and limit its willingness to pursue them...and the introduction of the fickle mob into the equation would increase uncertainty about the direction of U.S. monetary policy...

Fed does not need more powers - they would dilute the key mission of the Fed, reduce the Fed’s credibility, create a conflict of interest, & eventually threaten its independence over monetary policy.

Waiting For The Federal Reserve’s Next Apology - In November 2002, Ben Bernanke apologized – for the Fed’s role in causing the Great Depression of the 1930s. Today we need at least a statement of responsibility, from Ben Bernanke and the Fed.

The Federal Reserve is Immoral - Re: the redistributive effects of a steep yield curve; "checking accounts are a sort of "gateway drug" for many people - a road to debt serfdom where, in addition to paying interest on money borrowed to buy stuff that they don't need, these "newly banked" poor will also be fleeced by a bewildering array of fees and charges in a system that is set up to systematically suck as much money out of as many people as possible."

The Anti-Greenspan - Dani Rodrik wants the Anti-Greenspan - someone who truly distrusts financial markets and the ideology that surrounds them - to be the next Fed Chair:
Let finance skeptics take over, Commentary, Project Syndicate:

Economists Call for Bernanke to Stay (WSJ) Economists are nearly unanimous that Ben Bernanke should be reappointed to another term as Federal Reserve chairman. Meanwhile, the majority of the economists The Journal surveyed during the past few days said the recession that began in December 2007 is now over. here's the WSJ interactive for the economic forecast Econobrowser expands on it with GDP, Potential, and Debt Forecasts -- and Implied Multipliers

The Recovery Edges Forward - Fed Watch - Data flow continues to support those who argue that if the recession is not already over as of July, it soon will be.

Fed Focusing on Real-Estate Recession as FOMC Meets - (Bloomberg) - The collapse in commercial real estate is preventing Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke from declaring the economy and financial markets are healed. Property values have fallen 35 percent since October 2007... & here's an alien translation of the FOMC policy statement...

So, Is It Working? An Assessment of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act at the Five-Month Mark - Christina D. Romer, Chair, Council of Economic Advisers

Treasury Bailout's Limits on Lobbyists Still Haven't Taken Effect - WSJ - A plan by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner to limit lobbyists' influence over the $700 billion bailout program has yet to get off the ground -- even as the program nears an end.

US Deficit Rose $181 Billion in July - the story from The Hill on the ever rising tide of Federal budget deficits lists financial firm bailouts first as causes of the red ink, with falling tax receipts second. And the very same bailout recipients are crowing about their profitability.

Deficits and interest rates Krugman - It turns out that there’s a strong correlation between budget deficits and interest rates — namely, when deficits are high, interest rates are low.

A runaway deficit may soon test Obama's luck - Niall Ferguson - "President Barack Obama reminds me of Felix the Cat. Felix was not only black. He was also very, very lucky." - which in turn, produced this: Eeyore the Donkey vs. Felix the Cat

Rational expectations? - the conventional wisdom—that piles of debt accumulated over the past decade must eventually be handled somehow, likely through inflation and selective default. And yet the market has swallowed it all without a burp...

Troubled Assets May Still Pose Risk - NYTimes - The Treasury Department’s $700 billion bailout program has stabilized the banking system, but it has done little to prod banks to fully deal with the troubled loans on their books, a Congressional oversight panel said...“The nation’s banks continue to hold on their books billions of dollars in assets about whose proper valuation there is a dispute and that are very difficult to sell”
Elizabeth Warren "We Have A Real Problem Coming" (video)

Banking and Credit: It Is NOT Over - Let's look at the actual information that the COP put out, minus the usual media spin job

Toxic Loans Topping 5% May Push 150 Banks to Point of No Return - The number of banks exceeding the threshold more than doubled in the year through June, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, as real estate and credit-card defaults surged. Almost 300 reported 3 percent or more of their loans were nonperforming...(names in article)

When insolvent banks are worth billions - "bonds are the new stocks, and stocks are the new call options. Bonds give you a high return for high risk, while with stocks you’re really levering up, running the risk of being wiped out entirely "

About to Get Blindsided Again - For the majority of regulators, policymakers, and financial industry insiders -- who really should have known better -- the meltdowns at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac kind of snuck up on them, like pickpockets working a crowd of clueless tourists. & now. Ginnie Mae and FHA are becoming $1 trillion subprime guarantors.

Mish - As of Friday August 14, 2009, FDIC is Bankrupt - 5 more takeovers deplete funds

Paying for design flaws - Updates on what it's going to cost us for Fannie, Freddie, & Ginnie...

Modelling Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac – Part 1 analysis - first of a series from Bronte Capital heres Modelling Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac – Part II &
Modelling Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac – Part III

4 Trillion Dollar Credit Crisis Outlay (Chart) of a potential 13 trillion

Draft Derivatives Bill Sent to Congress - Under the Administration's legislation, the OTC derivative markets will be comprehensively regulated for the first time; here's the pdf...

NYSE Liffe shuts down CDS clearing service - Derivatives exchange NYSE Liffe and London-based clearing house LCH.Clearnet have shelved their central clearing service for credit default swaps (CDS)

ISDA Launches CDS Marketplace Website - brings together information, prices, data and statistics to help you better understand the CDS business.

Treasurer Fear of Credit Freeze Seen in Cash Hoarding - Bloomberg - Two years after credit markets seized up and caused the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, companies are hoarding the most cash in at least a decade.

Stimulus Funds Bring Relief to States, but What About 2010? - Washington Post - much of the pain this year has been cushioned by billions of dollars of federal stimulus money, which has allowed states and localities to avoid laying off teachers, prison guards, police officers and firefighters

Why Aren't We Undergoing Another Great Depression?
Krugman's answer: Averting the Worst: So it seems that we aren’t going to have a second Great Depression after all. What saved us? The answer, basically, is Big Government...

It's not over yet - Econbrowser Some are greeting Friday's employment report as an all-clear signal. But my advice is, keep your helmet on-- they're still shooting real bullets out there.

Employment, Hours, and Estimated Output Menzie Chinn, Econbrowser -observations & charts

Employment: Men, Women, Positions and People - CR - It is possible that, for the first time in American history, women will make up a majority of the work force late this summer.

The Jailhouse Diet you are in prison and your jailer is faced with severe budget cuts. To save money he reduces your daily food allotment, from a generous 3,000 calories/day, down 500 in each of the subsequent months. The menu is now down to 1,500 cal/day. You and the entire inmate population are losing weight fast and the mood is getting seriously ugly. The warden is concerned, so he tweaks things a bit; in each of the next four months he cuts "only" 300, 200, 100 and zero calories respectively. From his jaded perspective, things are "improving".

4 reasons why the July unemployment report was worse than you think

The Rise in Manufacturing Hours Is Largely a Statistical Quirk - This year, there were few, if any, layoffs associated with retooling, since many factories had already been shut. Nonetheless, the seasonal adjustment pushed up the seasonally adjusted workweek in the auto sector by 1.6 hours in July...

The American economy has added virtually no jobs in the private sector over a 10-year period. (Chart)

Are we pointed in the right direction yet? - it depends on what chart you're looking at...

Why Unemployment (Probably) Won't Hit 10 Percent - In order for unemployment to hit 10 percent, a net of roughly 1 million more people would need to become unemployed, assuming no (further) change in the size of the labor force...


"Part-Time for Economic Reasons" - Why has the increase in involuntary part-time work been so much higher in this recession as compared to past recessions?

Unemployment: Keeping It Honest The hours worked based unemployment rate is 14.3% for July, down from 14.5% in June. I have named this measurement U-7...The difference between my U-7 and the official U-3 is much larger than any other time over the past 50 years

Unemployed? Get used to it - Hundreds of thousands of jobs have vanished forever in industries such as auto manufacturing and financial services. Layoffs now taking place are similar to those in the 1981-1982 recession, 2.8 million jobs disappeared, leaving industries such as durable-goods manufacturing permanently smaller...

NSF Statistics: Industry, Technology, and the Global Marketplace Key Economic Indicators of National Competitiveness
Should America try industrial policy? - the Economist - the only solution to the underlying economic problem is something that's been a dirty word in Washington the last generation or two: industrial policy (that is, an active government role in the development of certain industries.)


Interactive Job Loss Map - county by county
Productivity Gains Not What They Appear - the Great US Productivity’ miracle rests on faulty, if not fraudulent US economic data that understates inflation, & thus overstates production (GDP)...

Mish on Hussman on Post-Crash Dynamics - from Post-Crash Dynamics "If you look carefully at the economic data that shows improvement, and correct for the impact of government outlays, it is difficult to find anything but continued deterioration in private demand and investment"

How the Bold Dream of a Small Tribe at J. P. Morgan Was Corrupted by Wall Street Greed and Unleashed a Catastrophe - book review of Gillian Tett's "Fool's Gold"

TARP vs Earnings, Bonuses - This is a rather instructive graphic, courtesy of Finacial Services Technology US: Bonuses break the bank

Taleb: You Fools Don't Understand That We're Doomed - w/ CNBC video
There is No Recession - It's a Planned Demolition - No one is fooled by the fireworks on Wall Street. Consumer confidence is still falling. Everyone knows things are bad. Everyone knows the mainstream press is lying. The restaurants and malls are empty, the homeless shelters are bulging, and even the big-box stores have stopped hiring.

Least Hours on Record Since... Well... Ever
Pay Raises Are the Worst in 33 Years - For 2009, the typical non-hourly worker will see a 1.8% bump in salary, according to a survey by Hewitt Associates...

Easing job losses don’t change weak prospects for US recovery: RGE Monitor - The economy has lost over 6.6 million jobs since the recession began, which is way above the (normal) recession job losses of between 1.5 and 2.5 million.

U.S. economy has bottomed: George Soros - "I think it (the stimulus) has made a difference, the economy has actually bottomed and I think we are facing a positive quarter"

How Will a Sustained Recovery Be Possible? - The crisis was caused by a credit (not real estate) bubble, which has not in any way been realistically addressed.

U.S. Economy: Sales Unexpectedly Fall on Job Losses - (Bloomberg) - as shrinking demand at department stores overshadowed a boost from the cash-for-clunkers automobile incentive program - retail sales by catagory bar graph
Video game sales in freefall - video game sales fell for the fifth straight month: in July, the video games business posted sales of $848.9 million, down 29 percent from $1.1 billion a year earlier

US Consumer Demand Off a Cliff as the Crisis Deepens - If the Fed and Treasury were not actively monetizing everything in sight, we would certainly be seeing a more pronounced deflation as prices fall WITH demand...

Tax and Spend, or Face The Consequences - the economic problems of the future will not be about growth but about something more nettlesome: the ineluctable increase in the number of people with no marketable skills...& here's one counterpoint to that: here's another: Will Machines Render Low-Skilled Workers Useless?

America’s biggest economic problem? We’re all broke. Literally - The bursting of the real estate and equity bubbles has destroyed the wealth of the U.S. middle class to a devastating degree. And it is with this middle class that the high private indebtedness lies.

U.S. Consumers Reduce Debt for Fifth Month in a Row - Consumer credit outstanding fell at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.9% to $2.503 trillion, according to Federal Reserve data. The drop outpaced analysts' expectations.

Consumer Bankruptcy Filings Hit Highest Monthly Total In 4 Years - July's number is the highest monthly bankruptcy total since the October 2005 bankruptcy reform aka the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act.

The Problem with Disclosure - Disclosure gives you information about the product you are buying, but it doesn’t make you a rational actor – especially not when you have to make predictions about your own future behavior. (the topic is no-interest balance transfers offered by credit card companies.)

How Much Credit Card Debt Do Bankrupt Consumers Have? - according to data from the 2007 Consumer Bankruptcy Project, the mean credit card debt for bankruptcy filers is $23,543, with a median of $13,279.

The Fog of Numbers It's especially ironic that given our preoccupation with numbers, we have arrived at the point where numbers just can't be comprehended anymore. You might as well say "infinity." We have flown up our own collective numeric bung-hole. The number problems we face are now hopeless. America will never be able to cover its current outstanding debt. We're effectively finished at all three levels: household, corporate, and government...

Bankrupt US Financial System: The Bubble Bursts and the Economy goes into a Tailspin. Typically, the way the Fed adds to the money supply is by lowering interest rates. When the Fed lowers rates below the rate of inflation; they're basically selling dollars for under a buck. That's a good deal, so, naturally, speculators jump on it. What follows is a frenzy of market activity that ends in a housing, credit, tech or equity bubble....the moral is: Cheap money creates bubbles; and bubbles move wealth from workers to rich motherporkers.

Secret Information from the BLS - Each month the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) issues a report on the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). This document is loaded with interesting facts that no one seems to know.

Inflation hits landmark low - the Consumer Price Index fell 2.1% over the previous 12 months, the biggest year-over-year drop since 1950. This was entirely due to a 28.1% drop in energy prices over that period...

All of Inflation’s Little Parts Each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics gathers 84,000 prices in about 200 categories to form the Consumer Price Index; this NYTimes interactive graphic breaks it down...


Some Signposts on the Deflation-Reflation Road - It has become clear over the summer that we are in a new stage of our long emergency. Now is a good time to regard the signposts on this strange road.

“Working Poor” report: Nearly 30 percent of US families subsist on poverty wages. The report, "Still Working Hard, Still Falling Short," is based on data for the period from 2004 through 2006 gathered from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Census Bureau's American Community Survey and the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey.

Is It Now a Crime to Be Poor? - NYTimes - You won’t be arrested for shopping in a Dollar Store, but if you are truly, deeply, in-the-streets poor, you’re well advised not to engage in any of the biological necessities of life — like sitting, sleeping, lying down or loitering.
but the rich are Even more gilded - "the latest inequality numbers from Emmanuel Saez, now updated to 2007, are truly amazing"

Research on Homeownership Rates through 2030 - re: new paper: "The New Urbanity: The Rise of a New America"

More than 15.2 Million Mortgage Holders Underwater - More than 15.2 million U.S. mortgages or 32.2 percent of all mortgaged properties were in negative equity position as of June 30, 2009. The aggregate property value for loans in a negative equity position was $3.4 trillion. (The First American CoreLogic Negative Equity Report for June 2009 is available on line. You have to sign up to read the report)

How to Save an ‘Underwater’ Mortgage By Martin Feldstein - Borrowers should get relief now, and the banks should get a guarantee down the road.

Foreclosures rise 7 percent in July from June - Foreclosure filings were up 32 percent from the same month last year, RealtyTrac Inc. said Thursday.
47 percent of South Florida homeowners underwater on mortgages - Miami Herald
Report: Record Number of California Foreclosures Scheduled For Sale - The average California foreclosure has a total loan balance of $425,134 on a home that is now worth $236,739.

Distressed real estate now 63% of all sales (Chart)

Bankruptcy Judges, Justice Dept. Rip Mortgage Companies - Judges have found that major mortgages servicers regularly mess up basic accounting, improperly credit payments and charge unwarranted fees...in 70 percent of the cases studied, mortgage companies claimed homeowners owed an average of $6,309 more on their loans than homeowners believed
the US CMBS market will likely rise above 5% delinquent by year-end, according to an analysis by Fitch Ratings of commercial MBS across the retail, muti-family, office, hotel and industrial sectors.


The Second Wave of the Credit Crisis… - PWA - Wall Street economists and analysts say they are now bracing for the second wave of the credit crisis, another tsunami of poisonous loans that could swamp the banks and a still floundering economy. Prices in the $3.5 tn U.S. commercial real estate have fallen about 39% from the peak in mid 2007, according to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Center for Real Estate, with no signs of the plunge stopping

Will Commercial Real Estate Woes Sink Pensions? many economists ignore the role of global pension funds and other institutional players like insurance funds and endowment funds. All that money chasing "alpha" was bound to end badly. The global pension Ponzi scheme played a huge role in feeding this bubble and now the alternatives nightmare continues.

Finance and the Flaw of Averages - Paul Kedrosky - From the new book The Flaw of Averages, an explanation of why modern finance means that 50% of people who invest intelligently will run out of money before they die.
Banks Turn Up Noses At Lending to Small Businesses Under Stimulus Program - Yves Smith - Not only do American Bankers not care about things banks used to deem as important, like playing a role in their community, now they can't even be bribed to go along with pretending that they care.

An International Comparison of Small Business Employment, by John Schmitt and Nathan Lane, CEPR: Contrary to popular perceptions, the United States has a much smaller small-business sector (as a share of total employment) than other countries at a comparable level of economic development, according to this new CEPR report. (bar graphs of self-employed, small mfg & small computer service businesses)

Arbitration RIP major arbitration firms are backing away from the business of resolving disputes between customers and their credit-card and cellphone companies

Imperfect Politics of Pay THE executive compensation bill that the House passed just before the August recess was advertised as the first in a series of government safeguards to prevent risky, me-first maneuverings around executive pay in corporate America. But an examination of the bill’s fine print raises questions about whether it will, if supported by the Senate and then enacted, have the desired effect....

Paulson’s Calls to Goldman Tested Ethics - he was in very frequent contact with Lloyd C. Blankfein, Goldman’s chief executive, according to a copy of Mr. Paulson’s calendars acquired by The New York Times through a Freedom of Information Act request.
counterpoint: Hank Paulson, Goldman, and AIG (For Journalists)

A Century-Old Principle: Keep Corporate Money Out of Elections - NYTimes - that ban is in danger from the Supreme Court, which hears arguments next month in a little-noticed case that could open the floodgates to corporate money in politics.

Bribed Regulators - Banks make $38 billion a year from overdraft fees. 70% of the overdrafts happen at a POS terminal or ATM, not by writing a check. There is no reason whatsoever for anyone to take such a hit. The bank knows before they approve the transaction that the money isn't there in the account.

Banks, Money, and Debt - "You and I can only lend money if we've got some to lend; but banks can create money and debt simultaneously at the stroke of a pen".

The Bezzle Finds A Match: JUDGES - That which the lawmakers won't stop, that which the regulators won't stop, the judges just might: banks have stuffed somewhere around $2 trillion in tranched "assets" into these SPEs (e.g. credit card receivables, etc) and then have claimed that they should not have to count these as "assets" against their capitalization, thereby avoiding having to reserve against them as well as count them against capital ratios...

'The Gifts that Keep on Taking' - There have been plenty of discussions about how much the bailouts of the financial system will cost U.S. taxpayers, with estimates ranging from $2 trillion to as high as $24 trillion. Even if we assume that the lower number is closer to the mark, these efforts have proved to be much more expensive than we were led to believe...

Economists on the Defensive - "The reason for the surprise was that leading macroeconomists and financial economists had believed until last September that there could never be another depression, that asset bubbles are a myth, that a recession can be more or less effortlessly averted by the Fed's reducing the federal funds rate"

"Economists did better than predict the crisis. They correctly predicted that they would not be able to predict it.”

Economists, economics, and the crisis - VoxEU.org - have there been serious failures?
there's been a lot of economists "naval gazing" this week. led by this: Lucas roundtable: Ask the right questions in the Ecomomist; then Krugman adds A Dark Age of Macroeconomics; then This Week in Econ Navel-Gazing ; This Week in Econ Navel-Gazing, II & “Econ Navel-Gazing” - Open Economics, and also A few words on real business cycles; but here's an earlier post on the state of macroeconomics by a 19 year old student that puts all the profs to shame: The Curious Case of Macroeconomics

Six Impossible Things Before Breakfast a thorough debunking of the Efficient Market Hypothesis, which is still being taught in the universities...

Keynes Was Really A Conservative - Forbes - In ''General Theory'' the economist outlines his belief of the government's role in a recession.

Simple explanations for global financial instability - VoxEU - and simple solutions

Peak oil changes everything - Continuing as we have simply will not be possible much longer.

Are we about to hit Peak Oil? - Fears that the world is running out of crude oil have just resurfaced after a new International Energy Agency warning. So how worried should we be? well, OPEC -- those numbers (production) just keep going up

Country oblivious to next oil shock - soon after a global economic recovery, the inevitable return to triple-digit oil prices will lead the world right back into recession

An editorial comment in the NAPSS journal accuses Anglo-Australian miner Rio Tinto of spying on China’s steel industry for six years, costing the country Rmb700bn ($102bn) in excessive charges for iron ore and the editorial indicates that Beijing’s detention of four Rio employees in China on accusations of stealing state secrets about iron ore price negotiations could be the start of a widening campaign rather than an isolated case:

Now China Has a Credit Boom Companies used to rely on retained earnings. not anymore. But don’t be fooled: China’s impressive headline GDP rate masks an important fundamental shift. Its growth is now fueled by cheap debt rather than corporate profits and retained earnings

Rebalancing the world economy: China: The spend is nigh The Economist - second article in the series on asks whether China can reduce its trade surplus by consuming more...

Monthly Chinese Purchases of US Treasuries (Chart)

China Rising, Rent-Seeking Version - "Rent-seeking" is effectively a tax extracted by one sector, such as finance in the US, from the rest of the economy...

American Graduates Finding Jobs in China - NYTimes - Even those with limited or no knowledge of Chinese are heeding the call. They are lured by China’s surging economy, the lower cost of living and a chance to bypass the dues-paying that is common to first jobs in the US.

Global Demand Freefall Waning... Japanese Export Edition - Shipments from the world's second-biggest economy fell 35.7 percent from a year earlier, an improvement from a 40.9 percent decline in May.

Baltic Dry Index has worst week since October meltdown as Chinese demand slows - The Baltic Dry Index, which tracks shipping costs and is viewed as leading indicator for commodity prices, has had its worst week since the peak of the financial crisis last October.

Container Lines ‘Tough’ Talks May Fail to Lift Fees, End Losses - Bloomberg - Shipping lines operating half the world’s container vessels plan to raise Asia-U.S. rates, ending a price war that contributed to industrywide losses. Falling demand and a flood of new vessels may stop them.

Chart: The Collapse In Global Trade - NPR - "During the economic downturn, trade fell more than industrial output, which collapsed."

Is The Global Supply Chain Shrinking? "A future where energy is more expensive and less plentifully available will lead to more regional supply chains"


The Icesave bill - Economist - Iceland and the EU - Opposition to paying back British and Dutch bank depositors is growing

European Economy Rebounds Strongly in Quarter - NYTimes; here's Europe's CPI (graph)

France and Germany exit recession - BBC - The French and German economies both grew by 0.3% between April and June, bringing to an end year-long recessions in Europe's largest economies...

Asia: An astonishing rebound - Economist - The four emerging Asian economies which have reported GDP figures for the second quarter (China, Indonesia, South Korea and Singapore) grew by an average annualised rate of more than 10% (see article).

Ten Unsolved Problems in the Global Economy

Latin American geopolitics: The dragon in the backyard -Economist - Latin America is tilting towards China, Iran and the global "south"—and away from the United States

Total Major Sovereign Wealth Funds - (semi-annual bar graph)

China’s Incinerators Loom as a Global Hazard - NYTimes - After surpassing the United States as the world’s largest producer of household garbage, China has embarked on a vast program to build incinerators as landfills run out of space...long-lasting substances like dioxin and mercury float on air currents across the Pacific to American shores.
How Baoding, China, becames world’s first ‘carbon positive’ city

India's solar plan inches forward — A top government agency has given conditional approval for billions of dollars in proposed investments in India's National Solar Mission. India's national solar plan would produce 20,000 megawatts of electricity from solar sources

Consumerism is 'eating the future' - all we're doing is what all other creatures have ever done to survive, expanding into whatever territory is available and using up whatever resources are available, just like a bacterial culture growing in a Petri dish, till all the nutrients are used up. What happens then, of course, is that the bugs then die in a sea of their own waste...

A Primer on the Details of Health Care Reform - NYTimes play by play...

An online guide to following the health care legislation - over 50 links: govt, blogs, news, columnists, think tanks, academics, lobbyists, the CBO, essays, & misc.

Low Life Expectancy in the United States: Is the Health Care System at Fault? -NBER Working Paper - (subscription item) - short answer: no

10 Steps to Better Health Care - NYTimes - There is a far more desirable alternative: to change how care is delivered so that it is both less expensive and more effective

Health Care meets Goldman Sachs - Taibbi - Right now, the federal government pays $14,777 to provide health insurance for each of Goldman Sachs’s managing directors
How To Fight Heathcare Fearmongers and Demagogues - Robert Reich -The President needs to be very specific about two things in particular: (1) Who will pay? and (2) Why the public option is so important -- and why it's not a Trojan Horse to a government takeover.

How the White House's Deal With Big Pharma Undermines Democracy - Robert Reich

How Much Power Does Obama Have? - I don't know how many times a president has to fail to solve this problem before we admit that it's not a matter of presidential messaging, or toughness, or will, or strategy

Obama on Drugs: 98% Cheney? - Obama's big deal with Big Pharma saves $80 billion out of a total $3.6 trillion. That's 2%.

David Brooks: Limbaugh health care rhetoric 'insane'
Conservative columnist David Brooks thinks Rush Limbaugh has gone too far in comparing President Barack Obama to Hitler; "I hadn't seen the Rush Limbaugh thing. That is insane. What he's saying is insane," said Brooks. Brooks went on to criticize Sarah Palin for saying that health care reform would create a "death panel" to euthanize older Americans. "Again, that's crazy."

What Are They So Mad About? - the loudest opposition to reform...has chosen to completely ignore the actual flaws in the plan(s) and focus on imaginary, delusional nonsense. The Greedy, The Partisans, The Tin-Foil Hats, and The Dupes tend to ignore The Wonks, which is a shame.

Who's behind the attacks on a health care overhaul? - follow the money

Healthcare paranoia is part of America’s culture war - Financial Times

Propagating Falsehoods in Attacks on Health-Care Reform - Steven Pearlstein - As a columnist who regularly dishes out sharp criticism, I try not to question the motives of people with whom I don't agree. Today, I'm going to step over that line...

Don’t Talk To Me About Death Panels - You have no idea what it’s like to be called into a sterile conference room with a hospital administrator you’ve never met before and be told that your mother’s insurance policy will only pay for 30 days in ICU...when you ask how much that would cost you are given a number so impossibly large that you realize there really are no decisions to make. False ‘Death Panel’ Rumor Has Some Familiar Roots - NYTimes


Krugman: here’s the latest in the “Obama’s health reform will kill people” news: Investor’s Business Daily — which poses as a reputable source of financial information — opines that
People such as scientist Stephen Hawking wouldn’t have a chance in the U.K., where the National Health Service would say the life of this brilliant man, because of his physical handicaps, is essentially worthless.(That would be Stephen Hawking, British professor, who was born in the UK and has lived there for his whole life.)
A Message from Professor Steven Hawking Politics The Guardian
"I wouldn't be here today if it were not for the NHS. have received a large amount of high-quality treatment without which I would not have survived." British Growing Tired of GOP Lies About UK Health Care


Is DIY electricity the future? - Ohio University students who use the 20 elliptical machines at the recreational center generate energy by exercising on the popular machines...
Rising ocean acidity: 'The other carbon problem' - USAtoday - "What happens if there's no more "shell" in shellfish?"

Cap-and-Trade: A Fly in the Ointment? economic analysis by Stavins of Harvard w/ links to several other articles
Cap-and-Trade's Unlikely Critics: Its Creators - WSJ - "I'm skeptical that cap-and-trade is the most effective way to go about regulating carbon"

Second Warmest July on Record Globally, according to NASA - Accu-weather, maps & charts...

Zogby: 71% of likely voters support House climate bill + links to other polls
Bill requires doubling nuke use - To satisfy House Democrats' low-cost solution to global warming, Americans would have to double their reliance on nuclear energy by 2030

Ozone Depletion Reduces Ocean Carbon Uptake - Most current models predict that the strength of the Southern Ocean carbon dioxide sink should increase as atmospheric carbon dioxide rises, but observations show that this has not been the case...

How much does breathing contribute to climate change? - The amount of carbon that a human breathes out is exactly equal to the amount of carbon he takes in minus the amount of carbon that contributes to the person's body mass. This means that the human body—like all animals—is a very modest carbon sequestration device.

Vast expanses of Arctic melting fast - Raw Story - "The water was really warm; the kids were swimming in the ocean."

Climate fixes 'pose drought risk' BBC -The use of geo-engineering to slow global warming may increase the risk of drought, according to a paper in Science journal

A Missed Opportunity on Climate Change - the legislation making its way to his desk could well be worse than nothing at all. Rather than auctioning the carbon allowances, the bill that recently passed the House would give most of them away to powerful special interests.

Climate Change Measure Should Be Set Aside, U.S. Senators Say - (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Senate should abandon efforts to pass legislation curbing greenhouse-gas emissions this year and concentrate on a narrower bill to require use of renewable energy, four Democratic lawmakers say.

GM gets to dump its polluted sites Detroit Free PressWhen General Motors Co. emerged from bankruptcy, it was freed of obligations for polluted properties at discarded plant sites that will require millions of dollars to clean up.

Trucks win in Cash for Clunkers game (CNN) - The government's results showed small cars as the top choice for shoppers looking for Cash for Clunker deals. But an independent analysis by Edmunds.com disputed those results...

Clunkers program could drive used car prices up - "Those are the cars that lower-income families need"

And for an Encore, Let's Condemn Office Buildings and Rebuild Them Nearby - it is a waste of assets, and a waste of assets necessarily makes us poorer.

Governors Oppose DoD Emergency Powers - "opposing a new Defense Department proposal to handle natural and terrorism-related disasters, contending that a murky chain of command could lead to more problems than solutions."

Preparing for Swine Flu's Return - Washington Post - New Wave Expected After Virus Flourished in Southern Hemisphere, the first influenza pandemic in 41 years

A new superbug found in Britain is major concern - A new superbug that is resistant to all antibiotics has been brought into Britain by patients having surgery abroad. It is of particular concern because it can jump from one strain of bacteria to another meaning it could attach itself to more dangerous infections that can cause severe illnesses and blood poisoning making them almost impossible to treat.

Welcome to the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season - blog w/ lots of great graphics if you're into weather charts...

T-Mobile To Charge $1.50 For Paper Phone Bills - customers who want an itemized paper bill will pay $3.50 per month. That's $42 per year. To get a copy of your own phone bill.

Baby Boom Migration and Its Impact on Rural America - Economic Research Service - Members of the baby boom cohort, now 45-63 years old, are approaching a period in their lives when moves to rural and small-town destinations increase....this report identifies the types of nonmetropolitan counties that are likely to experience the greatest surge in baby boom migration during 2000-20...

The Singularity (Summit) Is Near! - h+ "People who are hung up on genitals and skin color are already alienated from people who expect to live without germlines or bodies."

The Awesome Foundation- Submit an awesome idea. If we pick it, we'll give you $1,000 in cash

Saturday, August 8, 2009

week ending Aug 8

Jobs Report Roundup - links to several other articles, graphs, etc.

Economists React to Jobless Report - NYTimes

Unemployment Report Distortions - The news:
U.S. economy sheds fewer jobs than expected
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. employers cut 247,000 jobs in July, far less than expected... with fewer workers being laid off, the unemployment rate eased to 9.4 percent in July from 9.5
percent. Wait, how can you lose jobs and have the rate of unemployment fall?
Jobs paradox? - Krugman - Some readers have asked how it’s possible for unemployment to fall when the economy is still losing jobs...
The unemployment data was still bad

Jobless Rate Challenges Fed Outlook WSJ

Econbrowser: Good News and Bad News from the GDP release --

"The GDP is on life support administered by the federal government."and here's a further breakdown of The Composition of GDP During the Recessions

Atlanta Fed's macroblog: GDP benchmark revisions: Count me very surprised

The Fed Buys Last Week's Treasury Notes - This $14 billion plus buying activity by the Fed represents fresh money created out of thin air that was exchanged for the sovereign debt of the US. However, since the Fed has, for all practical purposes, never undone its "permanent operations" we can consider these additions of money as good as permanent themselves.
" Just last week, when the auction results were announced it was trumpeted to great fanfare that there was "more than sufficient" bid-to-cover, "strong demand" and all the rest"
Fed POMO activity and the Stock Market "we find that the Federal Reserve is printing up roughly $15 to $30 billion dollars a day just to keep things limping along."

Geithner asks Congress for higher U.S. debt limit - saying that it could be breached as early as mid-October.

Ben Bernanke's failure at the Fed - -Dean Baker, Guardian

Laundering Money through the Big Banks: Bernanke's Quid Pro Quo

Ben Bernanke Was Incredibly, Uncannily Wrong (Mises) The new video is a compilation of the 2005–2007 prognostications of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.

Why Bernanke is in panic mode - Stammering and stuttering are a real departure for him. There is a reason for this. For the first time since 1914, there is a public debate in Congress over the Federal Reserve’s power. "If Congress compels a full audit – a real audit, not a FED-controlled audit – individual members of Congress will discover that the American financial system is a house of cards. A few of them will release the results of the audit to the public."

Six economists on why we should not audit the Fed.

What the Fed is REALLY Trying to Hide In Fighting an Audit - "what the Fed is really struggling to keep hidden is the fact that the entire financial system is based on massive manipulation and fraud by the Fed and its primary dealers."

In Fed We Trust. - Economics of Contempt - Quotes/Revelations from Wessel book

The Mess that Greenspan Made - Confidence games and Ponzi schemes

Wall Street profits from trades with Fed
"The Fed has emerged as one of Wall Street’s biggest customers during the financial crisis, buying massive amounts of securities to help stabilise the markets."

No end in sight for bank bailouts - Even as the industry recovers, winding down last year's rescue programs and new ones put in place may be easier said than done

U.S. Considers Remaking Mortgage Giants - 'Bad Bank' Would Wipe the Slate Clean for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac by Taking Their Toxic Loans...and here's the definitive complete analysis of those agencies and the likely potential that we'd be left with another trillion bailout: Another underwater continent

Should the Fed Be Buying Fannie Debt? - This is not a small change program...it is difficult to see the benefits of the purchases

Scandal Makes its Way to Sallie Mae - This finding makes Sallie Mae the latest in an increasingly long line of lenders to get caught overbilling the government for student loan subsidies under the "9.5 percent student loan scandal."

$75 Billion In New Treasuries On Deck -
If you missed your chance to stock up on double ply UST (T is for toilet) paper, fear not: you will have another chance to buy some again... and again... and again...

Bank regulators dig in against Obama shake-up - In private remarks punctuated with expletives, Geithner urged the regulators to end their turf battles and show support for President Barack Obama's plan...

America needs a single bank regulator - Financial Times OpEd

Loaded For Bair (Slate - Big Money) regarded as the sole member of the Bush administration’s crisis rescue team to have recognized early both the magnitude of the fraudulence in the mortgage business and the magnitude of the risk that fraud posed to the financial system, Bair has distinguished herself as our most populist regulator...

Financial Services Industry Working With GOP To Plan August Lobbying Offensive - trying to head off the movement to create a Consumer Financial Protection Agency (CFPA).

Avoiding the Tail Wagging the Dog - discusses limits on derivatives... core reason for this is to shrink derivative activity so that it is smaller than the underlying markets...

High-frequency trading - Rise of the machines - The Economist

SEC Plans To Ban ‘Flash Trades’ That Give Advance Info To Certain Traders SEC Chair Schapiro Pledges That A Ban On The Controversial Practice Is Imminent

The Great American Bubble Machine - by Matt Taibbi &
The Baseline Scenario breaks it all down in How To Blow A Bubble

here's Charlie Gasparino on why Taibbi is dead wrong, & CJR saying Don’t Dismiss Taibbi ...

Goldman CEO Tells Employees to Tone Down Spending Lloyd Blankfein is telling employees of the powerful bank to avoid displays of conspicuous consumption, the New York Post reports.

Goldman Sachs admits it's under government investigation - Raw Story

AIG says it's paying $1.1 billion to retain key employees
Government-owned insurer estimates plan already has cost $824 million

After $182 billion taxpayer rescue, is AIG on the verge of collapse?

JP Morgan Fleeces Alabama Hicks With "Shit Bonds," National Guard Called In - Alabama’s most populous county, Jefferson County, is so broke it’s closing down courthouses and laying off so many cops that it’s now planning to call in the National Guard to maintain order

Citigroup's Oil Trader's $100,000,000 Payday: A Wakeup Call for the Nation - What in the world is a bank doing in the oil-trading business?

Old Banks, New Lending Tricks - Lenders haven't sworn off risky financial products. They've come up with a slew of new ones.
How the Bank Lobby Beat Credit Card Reform

The debt-inflation myth, debunked by UBS - refutes the idea that governments can inflate their way out of debt...historically, OECD government debt actually rises as inflation rises...

The price is not always right - FT Op-Ed re: efficient market hypothesis

Have the Stimulus Programs Failed? - Brookings

GE ‘Buy American’ Water-Filter Shortage Strands Work - Bloomberg - GE makes them in Canada. Under the program’s ‘Buy American’ rules, that means the filters can’t be used for work paid for by the $787 billion fund. (projects delayed, layoffs)
Stimulus Around the World - study showing that countries that applied bigger stimulus packages have recovered more quickly...

Accelerating U.S. bank-failures refute “recovery” hype - already on course to exceed the number of failures in 2008 by 400%, the FDIC is seeing less bidders step up to bid on these companies. It's “insurance fund” will be nearly completely exhausted when the pending failure of Texas-based Guaranty Bank takes place...
The long recession: 15 reasons why the U.S. economy faces a weak recovery

Federal Tax Revenues – Cliff Diving and Data Hiding… - "Remember good economic data? You know, data that “is not statistically massaged before release...And how’s it looking? Is it down the .7 or even 5% that comes out of the massaged and adjusted data? NO! It’s down, wait for it, 22% year over year for Federal individual tax receipts and it’s down a horrific 57% for Corporate Income Taxes!"...What will that mean for our deficits? GAME OVER!"

Personal Income Drops, Personal Saving Rate Slides From 6.2% To 4.6%

Consumers Increase Spending Despite Lower Incomes - according to the most recent “Personal Income and Outlays Report” from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

Gallup Daily: U.S. Consumer Spending

Prolonged Aid to Unemployed Is Running Out - Over the coming months, as many as 1.5 million jobless Americans will exhaust their unemployment insurance benefits, ending what for some has been a last bulwark against foreclosures and destitution...includes this state by state graphic

Income Loss Persists Long After Layoffs - NYTimes

Hunger hits Detroit's middle class - a delivery man stacks a dolly of goods outside a store. Ten feet away stands another man clad in military fatigues, combat boots and what appears to be a flak jacket. He looks straight out of Baghdad. But this isn't Iraq. It's southeast Detroit, and he's there to guard the groceries. US food stamp list tops 34 million for first time
For Many Americans, Nowhere to Go but Down - washingtonpost

Antidepressant use doubles in America increasing from 5.84 percent to 10.12 percent. That translates to a grand total of 27 million people.

California Won’t Accept Its Own IOUs - California expects them to pay taxes on the worthless scraps of paper, but refuses to accept its own IOUs to pay debts or taxes.

The 'New Normal' for Unemployment - Seeking Alpha - "Who cares that the rate of claims is slowing? ...more than 600,000 claims were filed every week last month...the U.S. is likely entering a "new normal"...and we may never see 5%-6% unemployment again."

The steep rise in unemployment continues - Economic Policy Institute - table & charts - "While the current unemployment rate—9.5% in June—is not at an historical high, it has increased much more rapidly during this recession than in other post-war recessions."

Employment to Population Ratio (60 year graph)

Black States Krugman w/ BLS map -those swaths of states in black are where unemployment exceeds 10%

Unemployment Insurance and Unemployment - Paul Krugman calls out Casey Mulligan for “saying that unemployment is high not because employers have become less willing to hire, but because workers have become less willing to work.”

Changing the fortunes of America’s workforce: A human capital challenge - McKinsey Global Research Topic: Labor Markets and Offshoring, Global Economic Integration
Offshoring by US companies surges: Survey - Of the companies surveyed, 53 per cent had a corporate offshoring strategy in place, up from 22 per cent in 2005.

Manufacture or Borrow (Until We Can't) - Let's start with the most basic of basics in an economy: wealth comes from making things that you can trade with others.

American Incomes Head Down, Threatening Recovery in Spending - Bloomberg - Wages and salaries, which drive recoveries in spending, fell 4.7 percent in the 12 months through June, the biggest drop since records began in 1960..."Even if rebuilding goes on at a pretty good clip, it will take 12 or 15 years for households to get to the wealth level that they had several years ago"

The Great Recession and the coming jobless recovery - Economists Forum - "The next casualty of economics will be the natural rate hypothesis. It is the idea that unemployment has an inherent tendency to return to some special natural rate...a fact of nature, a bit like the gravitational constant"

Is a Jobless Recovery Your Best Friend? - analysis of how the Fed is likely to respond to the US economy:"The jobless recovery is what keeps the Fed goose laying the golden eggs."

Job Prospects: Wall Street and the Government Wall Street is hiring, and there are entry level positions for internment/resettlement specialists with the government.

"Breaking News: The Global Financial Crisis was not caused by Beer Swilling, Cocaine Snorting Traders" There may be inevitable boom-bust cycles that cannot be easily eliminated, as a whole generation of economist assumed. As Keynes observed “the difficulty lies not so much in developing new ideas as in escaping from old ones”.

What does a double dip recession look like? - Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns
detailed analysis of what could cause it & comparison to 80-82 with supporting data...
Comparing the Current Recession and the "1980-82 Recession" - Econbrowser

Entering the Greatest Depression in History
The crisis has many bubbles, all of which dwarf the housing bubble burst of 2008. The main event on the horizon is the “bailout bubble” and the general world debt bubble.

It's Not a Recession ... Or a Depression "the use of either term is an implicit agreement that what we're experiencing now is can be measured in the same way we've measured all economic activity since 1929...there is no going back for us."

Biggest tax revenue drop since 1932 — The recession is starving the government of tax revenue. Tax receipts are on pace to drop 18 percent this year.

1929 All Over Again? (rally in S&P500 in lockstep with rally of 29-30) + analysis

this one looks like 2007 all over again: Investors Buying Low End Foreclosures and they expect to double their money in five years; California, of course...they're finding that inventory is limited because lenders are sitting on foreclosures. "Banks own 530 homes in this ZIP code (Pittsburg's 94565) but there are only 15 on the market..."

He's Back: PennyMac IPO brings back subprime memories (MW) another sign that fear is out, greed is back, and we have entered the new post-crisis era. Subprime Stan is back on Wall Street, after less than three years away.

Who’s Modifying Mortgages? according to data released by the Treasury Department on Tuesday, some big banks are moving much faster than others to modify mortgages (bar graph)

"Shadow" inventory lurks over U.S. housing recovery - "At this pace, it would take about four years to run through this amount of backlogged inventory"
Google Maps Shows Foreclosure Status - Calculated Risk

Mansions Go Under the Gavel - NYTimes

but CNN says "Buy foreclosures now - before it's too late"

Farmland Values Decline - not as severe as the bubble in the late '70s and early '80s that led to numerous farm foreclosures in the U.S.

Commercial property - A concrete problem (The Economist) Banks face another round of property-related bad debts: this time it will be flashy offices, not rundown homes

*FDIC Loan Report and Plan C: - Nearly Half of the $7.7 trillion in Loans Outstanding at FDIC Insured Banks are in the form of Commercial Real Estate. "the GDP release tells us that commercial real estate is on precipice of implosion. Is it any wonder that the U.S. Treasury is secretly working on a preemptive bailout program called Plan C gearing up taxpayers dollars for another toxic mortgage industry that has $3 trillion in loans?"

& here's a table showing the FDIC's remaining funds - about $800 million... and a Warning Related To The FDIC

Resource: Failed Bank List with Enforcement Documents - ProPublica has a great table of failed banks with sortable columns by state, date and Federal regulator.

Construction Loan Defaults Coming - “construction loans will be the epicenter of bank loan problems”

The Fair Mortgage Collaborative ? - The Big Picture - watchdog group "looks like a group of concerned foxes volunteering to watch the hen house"

Alt-A Loans and Pesky Resistant Subprime Loans: The Lingering Mortgage Beast. $1.1 Trillion in Active Toxic Waste Mortgages. PennyMac Ready for Toxic Mortgages. What Happened to the Public-Private Investment Program? "One thing the happy cheerleaders in the financial circuit fail to have is basic logic."

US prime borrowers fall behind on payments
The dollar volume of prime mortgages in delinquency or default rose 13.8 per cent between March and June, according to a study of private-label prime, subprime and Alt-A home loans conducted by S&P.

‘Underwater’ Mortgages to Hit 48% - (Bloomberg) -- Almost half of U.S. homeowners with a mortgage are likely to owe more than their properties are worth before the housing recession ends, Deutsche Bank AG said. “Borrowers may also ‘ruthlessly’ or strategically default..." ; & here's a similar story from Reuters...

Not Home Yet; Foreclosures and the continuing crisis - The New Yorker

Out of the Frying Pan One of the more interesting questions about the Housing Bubble Era of 2001-2008 actually has to do with what happened in the years before its rise.


economic indicator: the hot waitress index.

The New Financial Media CNBC takes on the bloggers...

if you've got a lot of free time to read it, here's the 1017 page pdf of the healthcare bill that passed the house energy & commerce committee this week; if you dont, heres a list of several dozen low points that looks like it was put together by opponents of the bill

CBO: The Effects of Health Reform Legislation beyond the Next Decade

A Canadian doctor diagnoses U.S. healthcare - The caricature of 'socialized medicine' is used by corporate interests to confuse Americans and maintain their bottom lines instead of patients' health. Canada spends 10% of its economy on healthcare; the U.S. spends 16%. Even the U.S. Medicare program has 80% to 90% lower administrative costs than private Medicare Advantage policies.

Meds To Cut British Medical Journal’s Clinical Evidence summarizes 2500 treatments studied.(pie chart: levels of ineffectiveness)

Obesity and Healthcare Costs - The prevalence of obesity rose 37% between 1998 and 2006....Obese people spent 42% more than people of normal weight on medical costs in 2006.
Poll: Most Americans don't think they have a weight problem

Insurers only pull your coverage when it hurts
- only "a small fraction of the insured experience a large share of medical expenses — and you can bet that rescissions are concentrated on the people with big medical bills"

You Do Not Have Health Insurance - you can’t count on your health insurer being there when you need it. That’s not insurance; that’s employer-subsidized health care for the duration of your employment (if they don't drop it)

‘Why do we even need the insurance companies?’ Rep. Anthony Weiner (D-NY) introduced an amendment Thursday night that would have repealed medicare, thereby forcing Republicans to show their support for the largest form of government-run healthcare in the U.S.

"The Health Insurers Have Already Won" - Yves Smith - with the Obama cohort, the focus is Orwellian, the use of language to misrepresent substance...a similar charade is in motion on the health care front...

also: Has the White House Given the Health-Care Industry Immunity?

GOP Health Plan Is Modeled on Banking Deregulation Apparently incapable of coming up with a single new idea, House Republicans plan to release a health plan which is plagiarized almost entirely from the McCain-Palin health plan... the “new” GOP plan even lifts McCain’s widely-panned proposal to deregulate the health insurance industry in exactly the same way the banking industry was deregulated over the last several decades.

Filibuster Nation - "The best may or may not lack all conviction, but the worst are sure as hell full of passionate intensity." The activists who have been whipped into a frenzy, stormed a number of such meetings across the country, shouting down members of the House, and who have dominated the recess meetings so far, appear to be conservative whites." The Town Hall Mob Paul Krugman

Barack Obama vs. Drudge Report - includes White House video countered by Health Care Opponents Make Up Supreme Court Case To Attack Obama

Obama gives powerful drug lobby a seat at healthcare table "As a candidate for president, Barack Obama lambasted drug companies and even ran a television ad targeting the industry's chief lobbyist, former Louisiana congressman Billy Tauzin for preventing Medicare from negotiating for lower drug prices. Since the election, Tauzin has morphed into the president's partner... he eventually secured an agreement that the administration wouldn't try to overturn the very Medicare drug policy that Obama had criticized on the campaign trail." >>>later: White House Affirms Deal on Drug Cost - NYTimes - White House officials on Wednesday assured drug makers that the administration stood by a behind-the-scenes deal to block any Congressional effort to extract cost savings from them...

Silbey on the New York Times: Epics of Cluelessness

The Prez, The Press, The Pressure - as the networks weighed whether to give up a chunk of their precious prime time, Rahm Emanuel phoned Bob Iger, chief executive of parent company Disney. Instead of contacting NBC, Emanuel went to Jeffrey Immelt, the chief executive of General Electric. He also spoke with Les Moonves, the chief executive of CBS, the company spun off from Viacom...

House GOP: ‘Cash For Clunkers’ Is Wildly Popular, Proving That Government ‘Can’t Run’ Programs "If we can’t handle something as simple as this, how would we handle health care?”

Cash for Clunkers-By Math Class Flunkers - "The government wasn’t happy with winning only the Daily Double of Stupidity, they knew they could take home the Trifecta of Sheer Idiocy. So, they created a program that would succeed in spending as much as just a scosh over $45,000 on each clunker…"

Nissan: Demand Will Fall Off A Cliff After 'Clunkers' Runs Out

Cash for Clunkers cars list: Top 10

Carbon for Clunkers - How much will the popular trade-in program really do for the environment? After all, those new, energy-efficient cars aren't going to just drop out of the sky, fully assembled...and those new cars are produced in plants that are the largest consumers of coal generated electricity in the region...

German car scrap scheme ‘abused’ – BBC - Up to 50,000 cars meant to be scrapped under a German scrappage scheme have been illegally sold abroad instead...

Coming soon to the UK: negative interest rates? - Telegraph - for the first time in history, there is more money parked at the Bank of England in high street bank’s reserve accounts than there is flowing around the country in the form of notes and cash.. a lot more

Bank of England surprises markets with move to increase ‘printing money’ plan – Telegraph

Bank of Japan to forecast 3 years of deflation extending to March 2012

Dubai Leads World in Price Declines (real estate)

Banana Republic Watch: Credit Default Swaps on Russia Cheaper Than on California - From Bloomberg - Investor demand for emerging-market bonds is driving the cost of insuring against debt defaults below industrialized governments for the first time. Credit-default swap prices from Turkey to Indonesia are falling as bonds rise amid signs that their economies are recovering faster than developed nations...BRIC countries now have $3 trillion in reserves, 43 percent of the worldwide total...

U.S., in Nod to China, to Sell More TIPS (WSJ)

The U.S. Trade Deficit with China & the Exchange Rate - 83% of the U.S. non-oil trade deficit is with China...

Internet activism in China - reviewing Guobin Yang's The Power of the Internet in China: Citizen Activism Online - with 253 million netizens, the internet functions as a location of social activism in China, the book gives a snap review of some of the hottest issues in front of the Chinese public today -- environmental problems, corruption, exploitation of factory workers, abuse of power, and social inequalities.

Chinese survey finds prostitutes more trusted than officials

Andy Xie Calls Chinese Stock Markets a Bubble

China, new financial superpower … (council on foreign relations)

China's Impact on the Global Economy: A Symposium - selected highlights

China’s Coal Power Sector: Larger, But Also More Efficient - China’s energy sector gets a bad rap because of its heavy reliance on coal, and continuing to expand coal power capacity at a rate of two coal power plants a week...but the plants that China is currently building are some of the most efficient in the industry...

GERMANY: Nuclear Power Fails, And Nobody Notices - Seven German nuclear plants have failed to generate any electricity this month due to technical breakdowns. They have about half the production capacity of Germany's 17 nuclear reactors...

Warning: Oil supplies are running out fast - The world is heading for a catastrophic energy crunch that could cripple a global economic recovery because most of the major oil fields in the world have passed their peak productionsaid Dr Fatih Birol, the chief economist at the respected International Energy Agency (IEA) in Paris, which is charged with the task of assessing future energy supplies by OECD countries

US Dept of Defense - Navy Task Force Assesses Changing Climate - Rapidly diminishing sea ice, melting glaciers, rising sea levels, increased storm severity -- all are possible consequences of a climate that mounting evidence suggests is changing significantly.

Plan urged to save national parks from global warming effects - Climate change could result in the catastrophic loss of wildlife, the report from the National Parks Conservation Assn. says

New El Niño threatens world with weather woe
Forecasters say this one is brewing up to be the second-strongest on record.
See also: Effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the United States

US Manufacturing: Guns R Us? - Yves Smith - durable goods table & chart - "After all, with 4% of the world’s people why shouldn’t we spend 45% of the world’s military spending?"

Global Defense Spending Map - a Visual Economics depiction of world defense spending, that combines both percent-of-GDP spent with a pie chart to illustrate overall spending.

CTV: Test of U.S. missile defence shield fails

DefCon: ‘Credit Hackers’ Win the Credit Card Game … Legally - Hundreds of “credit hackers” are legally gaming financial institutions by taking advantage of loopholes in the U.S. credit-reporting system.

Small Beer, Big Hangover - "Some whites habituated to a monopoly on the upper reaches of American power just can’t adjust to the reality that Obama, Sotomayor, Oprah Winfrey and countless others are now at the very pinnacle" (NYTimes article that contains dozens of links)
Matthew Yglesias » Majority of White Southerners Doubt Obama’s US Birth

Why Would Information Blockades Increase Newspaper Revenue?

The next food crisis - voxeu - The food crisis caught some policymakers off guard. Will they be ready next time?

Michael Farrell, Chairman of Annaly, delivered these opening remarks to the Company’s second quarter earnings call: Sherlock Holmes and the Mystery of the Green Shoots

The Bobblespeak Translations: Meet The Press - Larry Summers, August 2, 2009

Sunday Funnies - Economic Edge blog

interesting interactive graphic on how people spend their time. hour by hour, in U.S....why does it not surprise me that TVtime is almost as much as work? (link to article)

The truth about grit - Modern science builds the case for an old-fashioned virtue - and uncovers new secrets to success...

Grit Study - Penn State; Participating in this study entails answering three brief questionnaires (about 10 minutes total). The purpose of the study is to learn how grit relates to other personality traits.

How Is America Going To End? - Slate's "Choose Your Own Apocalypse" lets you map out the death of the United States.

The sixth extinction: the Holocene Extinction Event is the widespread, ongoing mass extinction of species during the present epoch... paleontologists are exempt from hope... Extinction hits 'whole families' - BBC