week ending Oct 29

Fed prepares to roll out another super-sized rate hike in early November - Federal Reserve officials are preparing to roll out another super-sized interest-rate increase in early November when they will also likely debate tactics for completing the most aggressive tightening cycle in four decades.Officials have been rapidly raising rates after being slow to tackle inflation that proved more persistent than expected. But with rates now approaching levels that could weigh on economic growth, policymakers are beginning to lay the groundwork for shifting to smaller moves that get them to the finish line without going too far, while leaving the door open to going further if inflation doesn’t abate.“Front loading was a good thing,” Chicago Fed President Charles Evans told a community banking symposium hosted jointly by his bank last Friday, reminding his audience that rates were down near zero in March. “But overshooting is costly too, and there is great uncertainty about how restrictive policy must actually become. So this is going to put a premium on the strategy of getting to a place and a level where policy can plan to rest and evaluate.” Officials, who now enter their blackout period ahead of the Nov. 1-2 policy meeting, want to raise rates to a level that restricts growth and hold them there for some time while inflation comes down. After they hiked rates by 75 basis points at each of the last three Fed meetings, the central bank’s benchmark rate is now at a target range of 3% to 3.25%.Policymakers see rates rising to a median of 4.6% next year, according to projections released last month. Investors bet that the Fed will hike by 75 basis points at their Nov. 1-2 meeting, move by either 50 or 75 basis points in December, and end the tightening cycle at a peak around 4.9% in early 2023.U.S. central bankers worry inflation will continue to spiral higher if they stop their rate hiking campaign too early. But if they raise rates too much, they risk pushing the economy into a painful recession.San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said Friday the central bank should start planning for a reduction in the size of rate increases, though it’s not yet time to “step down” from large hikes.“It should at least be something we’re considering at this point, but the data haven’t been cooperating,” Daly said during a moderated discussion hosted by the University of California Berkeley. If officials raise rates by 75 basis points at the November meeting, “I would really recommend people don’t take that away as, it’s 75 forever,” she said.Downshifting to more incremental rate increases, such as a 50 basis-point increase in December, could give them room to keep hiking rates next year if inflation doesn’t start to decelerate as expected, said Derek Tang, an economist at LH Meyer in Washington. That reduces the risk that they bring rates higher than they would like, a helpful strategy since officials’ own forecasts show they are hesitant to cut rates next year.But policymakers could face a communications challenge if investors misinterpret the downshift, stock markets rally and financial conditions ease, as they did after the Fed’s meeting in July, said Kathy Bostjancic, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. “That’s counterproductive for the Fed,” she said. Even if officials slow to a 50 basis-point increase in December, their next summary of economic projections, to be released after that meeting, could be deployed to send a hawkish signal that they’re willing to take rates higher, said Matthew Luzzetti, chief U.S. economist for Deutsche Bank Securities. Still, the size of their move in December, and any shifts in their projections, will depend on what happens with the economy before then, he said. Officials will need to digest a slew of economic reports before they gather for their final policy meeting of the year, including two updates on consumer prices and two monthly jobs reports before their decision at the two-day meeting ending Dec. 14.

Fed's Bullard, Evans, show two paths to the same policy rate (Reuters) - Charles Evans and James Bullard are the U.S. Federal Reserve's longest-serving monetary policymakers, a pair of PhD economists who've been at the center of central bank debates through two acute crises and often approached the job from markedly different perspectives. Where Evans, president of the Chicago Fed, calls himself a "hopeless romantic" about the longstanding economic concept known as the Phillips Curve as a useful guide to policymaking, with its tradeoff between inflation and unemployment, Bullard, head of the St. Louis Fed, dislikes the idea, puts more weight on psychology and expectations, and has toyed with different notions about what's really behind changes in the price level. But they've come up with roughly the same spot for at least an initial stopping point if the economy performs as expected of around 4.6% that they - at least for now - feel will lower inflation, and where they'd be willing to hold policy steady barring any further inflation surprises. Much of the Fed is in roughly the same place. As of September, 18 of 19 policymakers saw the policy rate at the end of 2023 ranging just a quarter percentage point above or below the full group's median of 4.6%, roughly the midpoint of a range of 4.5% to 4.75%. The Fed's current policy rate is 1.5 points below that at 3.00% to 3.25% after a frantic half year of rate increases from near zero back in March in an attempt to quell the highest inflation in four decades. In a window on the mechanics of Fed policymaking, Evans and Bullard in separate interviews recently laid out how they were thinking conceptually about that landing spot. Graphic: Fed rate projections - https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-FED/RATES/lbpggrgwbpq/chart.png Evans recently said his figure came from estimating a level of the "real" - or inflation-adjusted - federal funds rate, that could lower inflation without a dramatic rise in unemployment. He said a real rate of around 2% seemed "in line with" restrictive Fed policies of the past and held out the chance for a "soft" landing. Though a gap between the fed funds rate and inflation of two percentage points would be narrower than in previous tightening cycles - it stayed around three percentage points for example in the years before the 2007 to 2009 recession - the aim is to lower inflation without the large rise in joblessness seen in the past. In the spirit of hitting a moving target, Evans said he looks at how inflation is expected to evolve under appropriate policy. Stripped of volatile food and energy components to give a better sense of underlying trends, the "core" personal consumption expenditures price index should end 2023 at around 3.1%, he feels. But in addition to the fed funds rate, Evans said he also accounts for the tightening of financial conditions from the drawdown of the Fed's balance sheet and adds "a little bit more for financial volatility just in general around the world" - accommodations Fed officials nod to in theory but which Evans recently put a number on. Combining both "quantitative tightening" and the impact of global volatility, he said, is the equivalent of about half a percentage point on the federal funds rate. Bottom line: 3.1% inflation next year plus a 2% target for the "real" rate would ostensibly mean the Fed needs to hike rates to 5.1%. Accounting for the effect of those other forces lowers the figure to 4.6%. Bullard has a Taylor Rule he has referred to recently as both "generous" because it requires a less harsh adjustment of interest rates than a more traditional Taylor rule would recommend - some versions suggest a federal funds rate already near 8% - and "minimalist" in paring back the number and complexity of any adjustments. For example he uses an inflation calculation from the Dallas Fed that relies on a "trimmed mean," tossing out the fastest and slowing moving prices rather than automatically stripping out food and energy as the most volatile. That price index as of August was rising at a 4.7% annual rate, a bit less than the 4.9% rate of the "core" personal consumption expenditures index. Bullard said recently he has updated his calculations, which he presented earlier in the year when inflation was lower, and "you make the most generous assumptions, you get to four-and-a-half or 4.75" on the federal funds rate. If the target rate needs to move higher, he said, "it will be because inflation doesn't come down the way we're hoping."

 Philadelphia Fed Official: There’s ‘Lack of Progress’ on Inflation -- Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker on Thursday contended that more interest rate hikes would be needed to tame inflationary pressures that have continued to “We are going to keep raising rates for a while,” he said in remarks for a speech in New Jersey. “Given our frankly disappointing lack of progress on curtailing inflation, I expect we will be well above 4 percent by the end of the year,” he continued.Last month, the Federal Reserve approved a third consecutive seventy-five-basis-point interest rate hike and suggested that it will keep raising rates well above the current level. With the move, the central bank took its federal funds rate up to the 3 percent to 3.25 percent range, the highest level since the global financial crisis in 2008.According to CNBC, markets are widely expecting the Fed to sign off on a fourth-straight seventy-five-basis-point hike early next month, followed by another in December. “Sometime next year, we are going to stop hiking rates. At that point, I think we should hold at a restrictive rate for a while to let monetary policy do its work,” Harker said. “It will take a while for the higher cost of capital to work its way through the economy. After that, if we have to, we can tighten further, based on the data,” he added.Amid the double whammy of rising rates and high inflation, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos became the latest corporate leader to warn about the state of the U.S. economy on Tuesday. “Yep, the probabilities in this economy tell you batten down the hatches,” Bezos wrote on Twitter while sharing a video of Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon telling business owners to be cautious and “expect that there’s more volatility on the horizon.”Meanwhile, Tesla CEO Elon Musk believes that a global economic downturn could last for another year and a half. In a Twitter exchange on Friday, Musk claimed that a recession could continue “until spring of ’24.”The latest recession probability models released by Bloomberg economists signal that a U.S. recession is effectively certain within the next twelve months. The alarming projection comes on the heels of the Wall Street Journal’s latest survey of sixty-six economists, who say that the odds of a recession within the next twelve months is 63 percent. It was the first time the survey pegged the probability above 50 percent since July 2020.

Brown urges Fed not to lose sight of employment mandate amid inflation fight -Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, is urging the Federal Reserve to exercise caution as it considers another interest rate increase at next week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting. In a letter sent to Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday, Brown, who chairs the Senate Banking Committee, advised the central bank not to "lose sight" of its mandate to maintain full employment in pursuit of tamping down inflation. "While, for now, the labor market remains relatively stable, we are starting to see job openings decrease and unemployment claims rise," Brown wrote. "We must stay focused on addressing the root causes of inflation without putting workers' livelihoods at risk." Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, asked Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Tuesday to keep the Fed's full employment mandate in mind as it seeks to rein in inflation with rising interest rates. The Fed has received Brown's letter and plans to issue a reply to the senator, a Fed spokesperson told American Banker. Brown's letter comes as concerns mount from economists, analysts and policymakers — including Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Esther George — about the Fed tightening monetary policy too much and too quickly. Since March, the Fed has raised its benchmark interest rate by 3 percentage points in an attempt to temper demand in the economy and bring down 40-year-high inflation. The effort has included interest rate hikes of 75 basis points after each of the past three FOMC meetings. Financial markets are broadly expecting another 75 basis-point hike after next week's meeting, which is set to take place on Tuesday, November 1 and Wednesday, November 2. Brown did not comment on any specific projections for the Fed's next monetary policy adjustment. Instead, he argued that the Fed's main tool for addressing inflation — adjusting interest rates — is inexact and inefficient in terms of dealing with the underlying causes of rising prices. "Monetary policy tools take time to reduce inflation by constraining demand until supply catches up," Brown wrote, "time that working-class families don't have." He implored Powell not to repeat what he views as mistakes made by past Fed chairs by tightening conditions too much, to the point where employers cut back on their workforces. "We must avoid having our short-term advances and strong labor market overwhelmed by the consequences of aggressive monetary actions to decrease inflation, especially when the Fed's actions do not address its main drivers," he wrote.

Why a top Democrat is concerned with the Fed’s rate hikes - The top Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee warned Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday not to push the U.S. economy into recession with overzealous interest rate hikes meant to fight inflation. In a Tuesday letter to Powell, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) urged the Fed chief and his colleagues to “not lose sight of your responsibility” to protect a historically strong labor market. “For working Americans who already feel the crush of inflation, job losses will make it much worse. We can’t risk the livelihoods of millions of Americans who can’t afford it,” wrote Brown, chairman of the Banking panel, in a Tuesday letter released by his office. “I ask that you don’t forget your responsibility to promote maximum employment and that the decisions you make at the next … meeting reflect your commitment to the dual mandate,” he added. Brown’s letter comes a week before the Federal Open Market Committee, the panel of Fed officials responsible for monetary policy, is set to meet in Washington, D.C., and issue another steep interest rate hike. Economists expect the Fed to boost its baseline interest rate range by another 0.75 percentage points, which would be the fifth hike of that size in consecutive meetings. The Fed has rapidly boosted interest rates in a bid to slow the economy enough to bring inflation down from four-decade highs. As the Fed raises interest rates, households and businesses tend to reduce their spending, which slows the economy and tends to force prices down. The Fed is obligated under federal law to seek both stable prices and maximum employment. Powell and other top officials have warned the Fed may be forced to boost unemployment in order to bring down prices and avert a deeper recession caused by inflation. Fed officials expect the jobless rate to rise to 4.4 percent by the end of 2023, according to recent projections, which would mean more than 1 million Americans losing their jobs. But top progressive lawmakers, including Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) have pushed back on the Fed’s willingness to push the U.S. into recession. Brown did not explicitly call on the Fed to halt or slow down its rate hikes but expressed concerns that the bank may be moving too quickly to raise interest rates given how long it can take the full impact of increases to hit the economy. He also warned Powell against using interest rates to tackle other sources of high inflation — including the war in Ukraine, lingering supply chain issues and steady corporate price increases in excess of rising costs.

Will tumult in the housing market change the Fed's trajectory? - As the Federal Reserve weighs another supersized rate increase this year, fears are mounting that the central bank's monetary actions could needlessly threaten financial stability. Instead of hiking its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points for a fourth consecutive Federal Open Market Committee meeting, some economists are urging the Fed to slow the rate of increases or even pause them altogether to allow the economy to absorb them. "The market expectations are 75 [basis points], 75 [basis points], 50 [basis points], 25 [basis points]. That is so much given where we're at," Claudia Sahm, founder of Sahm Consulting and a former Fed economist, said. "My base case is not that U.S. financial markets break, and yet, the probability of that is rising. If they continue to be so aggressive, every 75 [basis point hike] they raise the chances of financial instabilities." Part of the problem, economists say, is Fed Chair Jerome Powell's commitment to continuing to tighten monetary policy until the personal consumption expenditures, or PCE, index — a measure of inflation that takes out volatile factors such as energy and food — and the labor market show sustained signs of cooling down. But because those indicators often lag shifts in the real economy, tightening monetary policy aggressively until they change risks an overcorrection, Sahm said. If the Fed wants proof that its monetary policies are working, she noted, it has plenty in the housing market. The average rate for a 30-year mortgage has risen to roughly 7%, more than double what it was at the beginning of the year, according to the Mortgage Brokers Association. Applications for new mortgages have fallen for four consecutive months to their lowest level since 1997 and home prices have begun to fall in some markets, with more price cuts expected as demand dries up. "It is clear that how much the Fed has raised interest rates has already had a really big effect in the places where they show up first: the housing market," Sahm said. "If they had not painted themselves in a corner with [PCE] or bust, then they could easily have told that story." Sahm said she would like to see a pause on interest rate hikes, but does not expect that to occur unless a crisis emerges. Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, said the Fed should take heed of the changes to the housing market, not only because it is among the most interest rate-sensitives sectors of the economy, but also because of the knock-on effects associated with it. Fewer home purchases mean fewer related big ticket purchases such as appliances, furniture and automobiles, she said, and declines in values make homeowners less willing to dip into savings. Swonk said she would like to see the Fed increase its policy rate by 50 basis points next week and see how markets react.

Trouble brewing in $24 trillion US Treasury market - Over the past month, the eyes of the financial world have been focused on the turmoil in the UK. But there is growing recognition that a potentially bigger crisis is building up in the US. It centres on the $24 trillion US Treasury market, where government bonds are bought and sold daily and which forms the basis of the global financial system. There are warnings that the conditions that led it to freeze in March 2020, when for several days there were virtually no buyers for US bonds, supposedly the safest financial asset in the world, are returning. An article by Financial Times columnist Gillian Tett, published at the end of last week, noted that while surface conditions in the market for US Treasury bonds appeared calm, in contrast to the turmoil in the UK, beneath this “surface veneer, some nasty currents are swirling in the Treasuries world.” An index of Treasury market liquidity compiled by JPMorgan has deteriorated to levels not seen since the March 2020 crisis. The extent of the problems was highlighted in an article published earlier this month by the executive editor of Bloomberg Opinion, Robert Burgess, in which he pointed to “what is rapidly becoming a potential crisis in the world’s most important market—US Treasuries.” “The word ‘crisis’ is not hyperbole,” he wrote. “Liquidity is quickly evaporating. Volatility is soaring. Once unthinkable, even demand at the government’s debt auctions is becoming a concern.” Along with other commentators, Burgess referred to the comments by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in response to a question following a speech she delivered in Washington last week. Yellen said her department was “worried about a loss of adequate liquidity in the market.” She noted that while the capacity of broker dealers in the Treasury market had not expanded that much, the overall supply of government debt had climbed. This issue was the subject of a statement issued by the Treasury Department last month. It said that in the period from 2007 to 2022 the debt held by the public increased from $5.1 trillion to over $23 trillion. But over the same period the rise of electronic trading and the “expanded participation by proprietary trading firms” brought with it a 50 percent decrease in the central clearing of deals. In other words, an increasing amount of activity is taking place in areas of the market outside the sight of financial authorities. “This reduction in market visibility carries implications for systemic risk, especially in the context of market disruptions,” the statement said, pointing to the March 2020 crisis and the events of February 25 last year “when the prices of Treasures dropped sharply amid strained liquidity conditions.” One of the main factors at work in the worsening liquidity situation is interest rate hikes by the Fed. Another is so-called quantitative tightening (QT) in which, rather than buying up government debt, the Fed is now running down its holdings to the tune of $95 billion a month. Whereas the Fed’s bond buying program under quantitative easing (QE) increased liquidity, QT is decreasing it.

Jay Powell wants his toys back --FT Alphaville -—Apparently, Pixar wanted the movie Toy Story to show that “toys deeply want children to play with them”. A bit like the dollar, the world’s most important financial toy.Since 1970 custodians of the dollar allowed anyone to play with it. But now Jay Powell is in the role of Sheriff Woody, and is determined his dollar toys stay home. These toys have been kicked around the financial playground for well over a generation, so Sheriff Powell’s intervention won’t be as fun as Toy Story.US bank balance sheets have changed a lot lately, with more to come. Monetary tightening - particularly ‘quantitative tightening’ - reduces financial liquidity (cash and securities on the balance sheets of commercial US banks) while traditional credit (loans) increase.That is largely a switch of identity on the balance sheet. But more loans act as cushion to the monetary tightening for US citizens. For the first time in decades the central bank policy favours ordinary Americans over financial markets. About time too! If the news is not all bad for Americans, the same cannot be said for foreign dollar balances. Reduced financial liquidity hurts financial assets. And as loans dampen the effect of monetary tightening on inflation, further asymmetric impact on financial assets can be expected, because more rate rises are needed. You don’t have to look far to see the market effects.Not just equity and bond prices, which are the most talked-about consequence of Powell’s tightening. Turnover in US securities markets is down, by a lot. Bid/offer spreads are wider in major markets. Hyperactive monetary policy led to massive shifts in short-term rates in Europe and elsewhere, but 2022 volumes in non-US short-term interest rate futures markets are down compared to 2020 and 2021. Other markets have also seen declines in turnover.Much can be explained as a transition away from Libor and a move to risk-free rates – usually some form of repo rate. But this just highlights the central role of the dollar as collateral and liquidity provider-of-last-resort. Dollar swap lines with the Fed are becoming a nice-to-have accessory.In one way or another, Fed policy appears to signal the end - or at least the radical curtailment - of the Eurodollar market.The writing has been on the wall since the global financial crisis. However, the implications only became apparent once the Fed started to aggressively tighten policy. Now the non-domestic dollar edifice may face real problems.Victims are certain among the numerous eurobond borrowers of dollars whose outstanding value amounts to more than 10 per cent of global GDP.Many are developing countries who will find it difficult to manage the combination of higher rates and stronger dollar, on top of slower economic growth. Many of the same borrowers received opaque and expensive loans from China via the Belt and Road Initiative. It’ll be a mess.

Yellen 'closely monitoring' financial markets as volatility rises - Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that while the U.S. financial system remains resilient, the current backdrop has created the conditions where risks to its stability could appear. This is a "dangerous and volatile environment" for the global economy, including the surge in energy prices and increased volatility in financial markets, Yellen said in answering questions after a speech in New York Monday. It's an environment in which "financial stability risks could materialize" in the U.S., she said. Recent weeks have seen a major selloff in U.K. government bonds that forced the Bank of England into emergency purchases, and a tumble in the yen that's prompted repeated intervention by Japan in the foreign-exchange market. "To date, the U.S. financial system has not been a source of economic instability," Yellen said in her speech to the annual meeting of the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association. "While we continue to watch for emerging risks, our system remains resilient and continues to operate well through uncertainties." Trading in Treasuries — the world's benchmark government debt market — has been robust, Yellen said, though she highlighted past episodes of stress and noted continuing work to improve its functioning. The Treasury is "very focused" on the issue, she said in answering a question. Yellen also flagged the risk of strains stemming from private credit. "We are also attentive to the possibility that higher market volatility could expose vulnerabilities in nonbank financial intermediation," the Treasury chief said. "Regulators have been working together to better monitor leverage in private funds and develop policies to reduce the first-mover advantage that could lead to investor runs in money market funds and open-end bond funds." As for Treasuries, Yellen's comments marked the second time this month that she acknowledged concerns over the functioning of the $23.7 trillion market.

Ugly, Tailing 2Y Halloween Auction Sees Lowest Foreign Demand Of 2022 - With yields tumbling all day tracking the collapse in the dollar, investors hoping to get some concession out of today's $42BN 2Y auction could kiss said hope goodbye. It may be why when all was said and done, today's sale of Cusip FQ9 maturing on Halloween 2024 with a cash coupon of 4.375%, was a bust. Pricing at 4.460%, the auction stopped at the highest yield since before the global financial crisis, and was also well above last month's 4.290% amid continued inflation fears and tightening expectations by the Fed. The auction also tailed the When Issued 4.448% by 1.2bps, the third consecutive tail. The Bid to Cover of 2.587 was not too bad, coming above last month's 2.51 and just above the six-auction average of 2.572. The ugly internals however more than offset for this, with Indirects sliding to 50.5% from 52.95%; this was the lowest foreign demand since 45.6% last November (and obviously below the recent average of 59.1%). And with Directs taking 25.3%, Dealers were left holding on to 24.2% of the auction, the highest since January when the Fed started ending QE. Overall, a poor auction, if understandably so considering the plunging yields leaving no chance for a bond concession today.

Chicago Fed: "Index points to steady economic growth in September" - "Index points to steady economic growth in September." This is the headline for this morning's release of the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index, and here is the opening paragraph from the report: The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) was unchanged at +0.10 in September. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in September, but two categories deteriorated from August. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved up to +0.17 in September from +0.04 in August. [more] The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly indicator designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. It is a composite of 85 monthly indicators as explained in thisbackground PDF file on the Chicago Fed's website. The index is constructed so a zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth. Negative values indicate below-average growth, and positive values indicate above-average growth. The first chart below shows the recent behavior of the index since 2007. The red dots show the indicator itself, which is quite noisy, together with the 3-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3), which is more useful as an indicator of the actual trend for coincident economic activity.

Q3 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at 2.6% - The Advance Estimate for Q3 GDP, to one decimal, came in at 2.6% (2.57% to two decimal places), an increase from -0.6% (-0.58% to two decimal places) for the Q2 Third Estimate. Investing.com had a consensus of 2.4%. Here is the slightly abbreviated opening text from the Bureau of Economic Analysis news release: Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the third quarter of 2022 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 0.6 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (refer to "Source Data for the Advance Estimate" on page 3). The "second" estimate for the third quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on November 30, 2022. [Full Release] Here is a look at Quarterly GDP since Q2 1947. Prior to 1947, GDP was an annual calculation. To be more precise, the chart shows is the annualized percentage change from the preceding quarter in Real (inflation-adjusted) Gross Domestic Product. We've also included recessions, which are determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Also illustrated are the 3.18% average (arithmetic mean) and the 10-year moving average, currently at 2.38%.

BEA: Real GDP increased at 2.6% Annualized Rate in Q3 -From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate) - Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the third quarter of 2022, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 0.6 percent. ... The increase in real GDP reflected increases in exports, consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, and state and local government spending, that were partly offset by decreases in residential fixed investment and private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.The increase in exports reflected increases in both goods and services. Within exports of goods, the leading contributors to the increase were industrial supplies and materials (notably petroleum and products as well as other nondurable goods), and nonautomotive capital goods. Within exports of services, the increase was led by travel and "other" business services (mainly financial services). Within consumer spending, an increase in services (led by health care and "other" services) was partly offset by a decrease in goods (led by motor vehicles and parts as well as food and beverages). Within nonresidential fixed investment, increases in equipment and intellectual property products were partly offset by a decrease in structures. The increase in federal government spending was led by defense spending. The increase in state and local government spending primarily reflected an increase in compensation of state and local government employees. Within residential fixed investment, the leading contributors to the decrease were new single-family construction and brokers' commissions. The decrease in private inventory investment primarily reflected a decrease in retail trade (led by "other" retailers). Within imports, a decrease in imports of goods (notably consumer goods) was partly offset by an increase in imports of services (mainly travel).Real GDP turned up in the third quarter, increasing 2.6 percent after decreasing 0.6 percent in the second quarter. The upturn primarily reflected a smaller decrease in private inventory investment, an acceleration in nonresidential fixed investment, and an upturn in federal government spending that were partly offset by a larger decrease in residential fixed investment and a deceleration in consumer spending. Imports turned down.PCE increased at a 1.4% rate, and residential investment decreased at a 26.4% rate. The advance Q3 GDP report, with 2.6% annualized increase, was above expectations.

U.S. GDP accelerated at 2.6% pace in Q3, better than expected as growth turns positive -- The U.S. economy posted its first period of positive growth for 2022 in the third quarter, at least temporarily easing recession fears, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday. GDP, a sum of all the goods and services produced from July through September, increased at a 2.6% annualized pace for the period, according to the advance estimate. That was above against the Dow Jones forecast for 2.3%. That reading follows consecutive negative quarters to start the year, meeting a commonly accepted definition of recession, though the National Bureau of Economic Research is generally considered the arbiter of downturns and expansions. The growth came in large part due to a narrowing trade deficit, which economists expected and consider to be a one-off occurrence that won't be repeated in future quarters. GDP gains also came from increases in consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment and government spending. The report reflected an ongoing shift to services spending over goods, with spending on the former increasing 2.8% while goods spending dropped 1.2%. Declines in residential fixed investment and private inventories offset the gains, the BEA said. "Overall, while the 2.6% rebound in the third quarter more than reversed the decline in the first half of the year, we don't expect this strength to be sustained," wrote Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics. "Exports will soon fade and domestic demand is getting crushed under the weight of higher interest rates. We expect the economy to enter a mild recession in the first half of next year." Markets were higher following the release, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining more than 300 points in early trading on Wall Street. In other economic news Thursday, weekly jobless claims edged higher to 217,000 but were still below the 220,000 estimate. Also, orders for long-lasting goods increased 0.4% in September from the previous month, below the 0.7% expectation. The report comes as policymakers fight a pitched battle against inflation, which is running around its highest levels in more than 40 years. Price surges have come due a number of factors, many related to the Covid pandemic but also pushed by unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus that is still working its way through the financial system. The underlying picture from the BEA report showed an economy slowing in key areas, particularly the consumer and private investment. Consumer spending as measured through personal consumption expenditures increased at just a 1.4% pace in the quarter, down from 2% in Q2. Gross private domestic investment fell 8.5%, continuing a trend after falling 14.1% in the second quarter. Residential investment, a gauge of homebuilding, tumbled 26.4% after falling 17.8% in Q2, reflecting a sharp slowdown in the real estate market. On the plus side, exports, which add to GDP, rose 14.4% while imports, which subtract, dropped 6.9%. Net exports of goods and services added 2.77 percentage points to the headline total, meaning GDP essentially would have been flat otherwise.

GDP Looked Good, No “Landing” (Soft or Otherwise), But Wasn’t as Good as it Looked due to Reversal of Q1 “Freak Event.” Consumers Still Refused to Throw in the Towel by Wolf Richter - - “Real” GDP – adjusted for inflation and seasonality – rose by an annualized rate of 2.6%, after two quarters of declines, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis today.On the positive side: Consumers, still flush with money and pumped up by rising incomes and very low unemployment, continued to outspend this raging inflation. Non-residential fixed investment rose. And after having dropped for six quarters in a row, government consumption expenditure and investment rose.On the negative side: Residential fixed investment plunged for the sixth quarter in a row. Q3 not as good as it looks, Q1 not as bad as it looked: What really moved the GDP needle was the reversal of the “freak event” that had sunk GDP in Q1, when net exports had collapsed by a historic amount. At the time it was clear that it would reverse, and so I mused in May: “That Q1 GDP Drop Was a Freak Event that’ll Get Unwound in Q2”; well, only part of that freak event got unwound in Q2, and the huge remaining part got unwound in Q3, plus some, and pushed up Q3 GDP by a good margin. “Real” GDP, after dipping in Q1 and Q2, more than fully recovered in Q3 and eked out a new record of a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $20.0 trillion, expressed in 2012 dollars. Not adjusted for raging inflation, GDP jumped by 6.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $25.7 trillion. This is in “current dollars” not “2012 dollars,” and roughly represents the actual size of the US economy in a 12-month period. Consumer spending, adjusted for inflation, grew by a somewhat feeble but still respectable – given the circumstances of the raging inflation – annual rate of 1.4% in Q3, after the 2.0% growth in Q2 and 1.3% growth in Q1. This was well below the normal growth range between the Great Recession and the pandemic. But back then, inflation wasn’t as much of a problem. The share of consumer spending as a percent of GDP dipped to 70.7%, but still above the pre-pandemic range of 68-69%, as other factors in GDP aren’t fully pulling their weight yet. Government consumption and investment rose by 2.4% (adjusted for inflation and annualized) after five quarters in a row of declines. Federal government: +3.2%, after five quarters in a row of declines: National defense: +4.7%. Nondefense: +2.3%. State and local government: +1.7%, after three quarters in a row of declines. Government consumption and investment does not include salaries paid to government employees, transfer payments to consumers (stimulus payments, unemployment payments, Social Security payments, etc.), and other direct payments to consumers. Those payments enter GDP when consumers and businesses spend or invest this money. Gross private domestic investment plunged by 8.5% (adjusted for inflation, annualized), the second quarter in a row of sharp declines, after a huge surge in 2021:

• Nonresidential fixed investments: +3.7%:
  • Structures: -15.3%, sixth quarterly decline in a row.
  • Equipment: +10.8%.
  • Intellectual property products (software, etc.): +6.9%, ninth big increase in a row.
• Residential fixed investment: -26.4%, the second plunge in a row after smaller drops before.

The Trade Deficit in goods & services improved by $156 billion, after the $58 billion improvement in Q2, more than completely reversing the “freak event,” as I had called it, in Q1 (-$191 billion), all in 2012 dollars, annualized.Exports add to GDP, imports subtract from GDP. And “Net Exports” (exports minus imports) have been a negative factor in the GDP calculations for decades, as exports rose some, while imports worsened year after year as Corporate America went on an all-out no-holds-barred campaign to “globalize” production to other countries. Additionally, in recent years, overseas vendors have been able to sell directly to US consumers via internet platforms, by passing Corporate America altogether. During the pandemic, Americans binged on buying goods with the cash they got from everywhere, and many of these were imported, and the trade deficit blew out. Over the past year, consumers have been shifting their spending from goods back to services, and imports got less terrible.

Q3 Real GDP Per Capita: 2.3% Versus the 2.6% Headline Real GDP - The Advance Estimate for Q3 GDP came in at 2.6% (2.57% to two decimals), up from -0.6% (-0.58% to two decimals) in Q2 2022. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 2.33% to two decimal points. Here is a chart of real GDP per capita growth since 1960. For this analysis, we've chained in today's dollar for the inflation adjustment. The per-capita calculation is based on quarterly aggregates of mid-month population estimates by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which date from 1959 (hence our 1960 starting date for this chart, even though quarterly GDP has is available since 1947). The population data is available in the FRED series POPTHM. The logarithmic vertical axis ensures that the highlighted contractions have the same relative scale. The chart includes an exponential regression through the data using the Excel GROWTH function to give us a sense of the historical trend. The regression illustrates the fact that the trend since the Great Recession has a visibly lower slope than the long-term trend. In fact, the current GDP per-capita is 7.8% below the pre-recession trend (2008).

Not a recession … yet - by Dr James_Hamilton - The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.6% annual rate in the third quarter. That’s close to the historical average (3.1%), and is a welcome sequel to the two quarters of falling GDP with which we started the year. Real GDP growth at an annual rate, 1947:Q2-2022:Q3, with the historical average (3.1%) in blue. Calculated as 400 times the difference in the natural log of GDP from the previous quarter. Here’s what the data look like when plotted as year-over-year growth rates. The new data helped the Econbrowser recession indicator index to ease down a little to 29.2%. This is an assessment of the situation of the economy in the previous quarter (namely 2022:Q2). The index takes into account the fact that the Q3 growth was positive to refine the assessment of where the economy was last quarter. When Marcelle Chauvet and I first developed this index 17 years ago, we announced that we would only declare a recession to have started when the index rises to 65% (see pages 14-15 in our original paper). The index itself is never revised, though each quarter’s updates and revisions to GDP allow an improved assessment of the economic conditions several quarters earlier as well the value of the index that we announce in real time based on the initial GDP report. If subsequent data send the real-time indicator above 65%, we would use the full range of revised historical data available at that date to announce the date at which the recession likely started. Here at Econbrowser we’ve followed that procedure to the letter as the data were released in real time over the last 17 years, successfully dating the beginning and end of the two recessions since we started this blog. GDP-based recession indicator index. The plotted value for each date is based solely on the GDP numbers that were publicly available as of one quarter after the indicated date, with 2022:Q2 the last date shown on the graph. Shaded regions represent the NBER’s dates for recessions, which dates were not used in any way in constructing the index. The recent hikes in interest rates have brought the U.S. housing market down quite quickly. The drop in new home construction subtracted 1.4% from the 2022:Q3 annualized GDP growth rate. Another channel by which higher interest rates can slow GDP growth is through a stronger dollar, which discourages U.S. exports and encourages U.S. imports. But surprisingly, exports increased and imports decreased in Q3, between them adding +2.8% to the annual GDP growth rate. Nearly half of the rise in exports came from petroleum and products, as the U.S. stepped into the gap created by disruptions in Russian shipments. Supply-chain issues may have contributed to the decline in imports. With the headwinds from a strong dollar, it’s hard to see a big positive contribution from trade continuing. Mild weather has eased some of the challenges Europe was facing with natural gas cut-offs from Russia, at least for now. But Europe’s energy situation will still be rough in 2023 and will be a drag on Europe and the world economy. China’s ongoing efforts to curtail COVID are another very serious headwind to global economic growth. When added to the continuing effects of the monetary contraction, a recession within the next year is a distinct possibility. So while the Q3 GDP growth is welcome, our Little Econ Watcher remains very worried.

 Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan CEOs tip U.S. economy for recession - Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon and JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon both expect a U.S. recession as a tight labor market keeps the Federal Reserve on an aggressive monetary policy tightening trajectory. Speaking on a panel at the Future Initiative Investment conference in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, Solomon said he expects economic conditions to "tighten meaningfully from here," and predicted that the Fed would continue raising interest rates until they reached 4.5%-4.75% before pausing. "But if they don't see real changes — labor is still very, very tight, they are obviously just playing with the demand side by tightening — but if they don't see real changes in behavior, my guess is they will go further," he said. "And I think generally when you find yourself in an economic scenario like this where inflation is embedded, it is very hard to get out of it without a real economic slowdown." The Fed funds rate is currently targeted between 3%-3.25%, but Federal Open Market Committee policymakers have signaled that further hikes will be needed, with U.S. inflation still running at an annual 8.2% in September. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said last week that the central bank's policy tightening to date had resulted in a "frankly disappointing lack of progress on curtailing inflation," projecting that rates would need to rise "well above 4%" by the end of the year. Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Labor reported 10.1 million job openings in August, signaling that employers' demand for workers, though falling sharply, remains historically high. Central bank policymakers hope that a cooling labor market will translate to lower wage growth, which has been running at its highest rate in decades and signals that inflation has become embedded in the economy. "So I too am in the camp that we likely have a recession in the U.S. ... I think most likely we might be in a recession in Europe, and so until you get to that point where you see a change — whether it's in labor, the demand side — you are going to see central banks continue to move on that trajectory," Solomon added.

Four High Frequency Indicators for the Economy - These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of October 23rd. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. The 7-day average is down 3.9% from the same day in 2019 (96.1% of 2019). (Dashed line) Air travel - as a percent of 2019 - seems to be picking up a little, but overall, still below 2019 levels. This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through October 20th. Movie ticket sales were at $96 million last week, down about 42% from the median for the week. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels). This data is through Oct 15th. The occupancy rate was down 2.7% compared to the same week in 2019. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is above the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue). This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. As of October 14th, gasoline supplied was down 7.2% compared to the same week in 2019. Recently gasoline supplied has been running below 2019 and 2021 levels - and sometimes below 2020.

The Macroeconomic Consequences Of Lockdowns & The Aftermath by David Stockman -During the past three years, Washington has made three catastrophic errors. These include:

• The draconian one-size-fits-all Lockdowns in response to the Covid;
• The insane $11 trillion bacchanalia of monetary and fiscal stimulus payment designed to counter the supply-side shutdowns caused by the Virus Patrol;
• The mindless Sanctions War on Russia, which has caused global commodity markets to erupt skyward.

The resulting economic and financial dislocations, both global and domestic, are unprecedented and could not have come in a worst context. Prolonged fiscal and monetary excesses prior to February 2020 were already destined to generate an era of reckoning, even before Washington jumped the shark after the Covid panic was ignited by Donald Trump in March 2020. Based on the facts known now and the evidence available then, the prolonged Lockdowns ordered by Trump on March 16, 2020 were one of the most capriciously destructive acts of the state in modern history. The reason is simple: The Covid was at best a super flu that did not remotely rise to a Black Plague style existential threat to American society, and therefore did not warrant any extraordinary “public health” intervention at all. America’s medical care system was more than equipped to handle the elevated case loads among the elderly and comorbid that actually occurred. Indeed, the IFR (infection fatality rate) for the under 70-years population has turned out to be so low as to make the brutal economic shutdowns ordered by the Donald and his Fauci-led Virus Patrol tantamount to crimes against the American people. There is just no beating around the bush. The Lockdowns impacted the livelihoods and social life primarily of the working age and youth populations depicted below, but not in a million years should the heavy hand of the state been brought to bear on their ordinary freedoms to conduct economic and social life as they saw fit. During Q2 2020, for example, real GDP plunged by 35% at an annualized rate, leaving the declines during the prior 11 post-war recessions (gray columns) far in the dust. Likewise, the drop in Q2 employment was in a whole new zip code. During April 2020, the US economy shed 20.5 million payroll jobs—a figure that was 28X larger than the worst job loss of the Great Recession in February 2009 (-747,000). Even industrial production (black line), which was not nearly as heavily impacted as the Leisure & Hospitality (L&H) and other services industries, dropped by 13%, or nearly 4X more than during the worst month of the Great Recession. At the same time, payrolls at ground zero of the Lockdowns— restaurants, bars, hotels and resorts (purple line)— plummeted by a staggering 46% during April 2020 or by 50X more than any prior monthly decline. To call the above a “supply-side shock” is hardly an adequate description. Donald Trump literally decimated the production side of the US economy because he did not have the gumption, knowledge and policy principles necessary to blow off Fauci’s statist attack on America’s market economy. But what came thereafter was actually worse. The Donald did not care a wit about fiscal rectitude and the surging public debt that was already in place; and actually had demanded time and again even more egregious money-printing than the ship of fools in the Eccles Building were already foisting upon the American economy. So he loudly clambered on board as the panicked politicians on Capitol Hill and the money-printers at the Fed opened the stimulus sluice gates like never before. The resulting disaster is now coming home to roost, with Joe Biden being the available fall guy, and rightfully so–given the compounding damage being wrought by his truly idiotic proxy war against Russia and the related Sanctions War attack on the global trading and payments system. […] Of course, in March 2021, at the peak in the brown line below, Washington was still in full-on stimulus mode. Joe Biden’s $2 trillion American Rescue Act was injecting another round of fiscal stimulus, even as the Fed persevered in buying $120 billion per month of government and GSE debt.An eruption of government spending and borrowing of this staggering magnitude within a matter of months would have normally caused a giant squeeze in the bond pits, sending bond yields soaring skyward. But that didn’t happen: The benchmark yield on the 10-year UST (purple line) actually fell from an already low 3.15% in October 2018 to an absurd 0.55% in July 2020, and remained at just 1.83% thru February 2022. There is no mystery as to why. During the same period, the Fed’s balance sheet (black line) erupted as never before, rising from $4.1 trillion to a peak of $8.9 trillion by February 2022. That is to say, the Eccles Building monetized a huge share of the stimmy spending, thereby drastically falsifying the entire market for government debt and all the private household and business debt that prices off from it.Washington compensated one and all for the resulting harm and then some by unleashing a $6 trillion spending bacchanalia in less than 14 months, which was accomplished with barely a dissent from either party to the Washington duopoly because interest rates on government debt had plunged to an all-time low. In turn, that was enabled by the most reckless spurt of money printing and debt monetization in recorded history.In any event, the US economy was a financial timebomb fixing to explode in February 2022 when Joe Biden decided to save “Novorossiya” (New Russia) from the Russians, who had intervened to protect their kinsman from the devastating attacks being leveled on the Donbas by the anti-Russian government planted in Kiev by Washington during the February 2014 coup.The resulting Washington-inspired Sanction War on the largest commodity producer on planet earth was the tripwire for the calamity now underway.Washington’s three great errors have turned the world upside-down. An economy freighted down with $92 trillion of public and private debt was, is and will remain an accident waiting to happen.

Debt ceiling showdown could send US into tailspin - Democrats are under pressure to raise the federal debt limit before a likely loss of control in Congress next year to prevent a potential showdown with Republicans. The U.S. has almost a year until experts say the federal government will hit its borrowing limit, which gives Congress plenty of time to avert a default.

• Experts say a pledge by the GOP to use the debt ceiling as leverage, if they take a chamber of Congress, could lead to a partisan clash with devastating effects, should the government default.
• Democrats already have a packed agenda to finish off in the few remaining weeks of the year, giving President Biden’s party little time to push through another debt ceiling increase. And only the lengthy and complicated budget reconciliation process allows Democrats to raise the ceiling without Republican support. But that doesn’t mean they aren’t looking at their options.
• Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) said Congress should take immediate action to “deal with the debt limit and it ought to be a bipartisan vote,” but she added lawmakers “must avoid default by any means necessary.”

While the debt ceiling doesn’t control how much money the federal government can spend, it does limit how much debt the Treasury Department can take on while paying for expenses already approved by lawmakers and the White House. If the federal government fails to raise the debt ceiling, the U.S. could miss payments on debt owed and slip into default, plunging the global economy into chaos. The U.S. already suffered credit downgrades and financial market turmoil after down-to-the-wire showdowns in 2011 and 2013, and experts don’t want to see another.

Thirty Democrats in Progressive Caucus urge Biden to open talks with Russia in Ukraine war - Thirty Democratic members of the House of Representatives sent a letter to the White House Monday urging President Joe Biden to begin negotiations with Russia aimed at bringing the US-NATO war in Ukraine to an end. It is the first public call from within the Democratic Party for a negotiated settlement of the war. All of the Democrats who signed the letter are members of the Progressive Caucus, chaired by Representative Pramila Jayapal of Washington, who was the first name on the list. The others all represent safe Democratic seats, mainly in urban districts, including all the members of the “squad,” the left-liberal group associated with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Rashida Tlaib. The letter begins with a declaration of support for the all-out US backing for Ukraine, accepting the framework of the war narrative presented by the Biden administration and the US national security apparatus and reinforced by a tidal wave of media propaganda, which ignores the decades-long campaign of NATO expansion eastward and its efforts to surround, weaken and ultimately dismember Russia. Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine, a reactionary response to this NATO campaign, is treated as the criminal decision of one man to attack an innocent neighbor, which requires a global response in defense of the right-wing regime in Kiev, brought to power in 2014 in a CIA-backed coup with fascist forces acting as the spearhead. But the letter then reminds Biden of his concern that a direct military conflict with nuclear-armed Russia could lead to World War III, and that “[T]he risk of nuclear weapons being used has been estimated to be higher now than at any time since the height of the Cold War.” The letter continues: “Given the catastrophic possibilities of nuclear escalation and miscalculation, which only increase the longer this war continues, we agree with your goal of avoiding direct military conflict as an overriding national-security priority.” From this starting point, the 30 Democrats draw the conclusion that a prolonged, years-long conflict should be avoided, making a negotiated settlement necessary. They argue, “if there is a way to end the war while preserving a free and independent Ukraine, it is America’s responsibility to pursue every diplomatic avenue to support such a solution that is acceptable to the people of Ukraine… The alternative to diplomacy is protracted war, with both its attendant certainties and catastrophic and unknowable risks.” They sum up: “In conclusion, we urge you to make vigorous diplomatic efforts in support of a negotiated settlement and ceasefire, engage in direct talks with Russia, explore prospects for a new European security arrangement acceptable to all parties that will allow for a sovereign and independent Ukraine, and, in coordination with our Ukrainian partners, seek a rapid end to the conflict and reiterate this goal as America’s chief priority.” The letter is not an anti-war declaration. Every one of the signers voted for the most recent legislation approving tens of billions more spending on US military aid to Ukraine. The cumulative total of some $60 billion is the largest amount of American military aid to any single country in half a century, since the Vietnam War. Just hours after the publication of the statement, Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Pramila Jayapal issued a statement to “clarify” the document, declaring, “we are united as Democrats in our unequivocal commitment to supporting Ukraine in their fight for their democracy and freedom in the face of the illegal and outrageous Russian invasion, and nothing in the letter advocates for a change in that support.” They are not opposed on principle to the US-NATO intervention, but are clearly concerned that the huge US commitment has no popular support at home and could trigger a nuclear war. An additional concern is that the gargantuan Pentagon budget, swelled by the spending on the Ukraine war, is crowding out whatever remains of domestic social spending, setting the stage for significant cuts in core programs like Social Security and Medicare, especially if the Republican Party wins control of Congress in the November 8 elections.

House progressives retract Russia-diplomacy letter amid Dem firestorm - House progressives on Tuesday retracted a letter calling on President Joe Biden to engage in direct diplomacy with Russia, less than 24 hours after it sparked intense backlash from other Democrats. The about-face comes as some Democratic lawmakers vent their fury that the letter backing talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin — originally drafted and signed in June — wasn’t recirculated before its public release on Monday. That release made it appear that the 30 House Democrats who signed on, all lawmakers in the roughly 100-member Congressional Progressive Caucus, were urging the Biden administration to push for diplomacy immediately despite Russia’s engagement in war crimes and indications of a military escalation against Ukraine. Making the timing of the letter even more politically perilous: Ukraine is not ready for negotiations at this point, especially because its months-long counteroffensive has been successful to date, and there’s no indication Putin is ready to deal either. “The Congressional Progressive Caucus hereby withdraws its recent letter to the White House regarding Ukraine,” the caucus’ chair, Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), said in a statement after POLITICO first reported that the retraction was imminent. “The letter was drafted several months ago, but unfortunately was released by staff without vetting.” Jayapal said she accepts “responsibility” for the embarrassing flub, adding that the timing of the letter caused a “distraction” and was “conflated” with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy’s recent suggestion that Republicans might pull back on Ukraine funding if they win control of the House. “The proximity of these statements created the unfortunate appearance that Democrats, who have strongly and unanimously supported and voted for every package of military, strategic, and economic assistance to the Ukrainian people, are somehow aligned with Republicans who seek to pull the plug on American support for President [Volodymyr] Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian forces,” Jayapal added.

Progressives go on damage control after Ukraine diplomacy letter --House progressives are doing damage control after retreating from a letter that stirred outrage among Democrats by questioning President Biden’s handling of the Russia-Ukraine war two weeks before the midterm elections.The letter, blamed Tuesday on poor staff work, raised questions about the political acumen of the Congressional Progressive Caucus and its leader, Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), who is eyeing a run at leadership in the next Congress. “The letter was drafted several months ago, but unfortunately was released by staff without vetting. As Chair of the Caucus, I accept responsibility for this,” Jayapal wrote in a Tuesday statement. The letter, which asked Biden to explore diplomacy with Russia to end the war, muddled the Democrats’ message that a GOP takeover of the House could undermine U.S. unity behind Ukraine.Just last week, Democrats had blasted House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy (Calif.) for saying there would be no “blank check” for Ukraine from a GOP House, a statement that led to pushback from various Republicans including former Vice President Mike Pence. “I believe in the power of diplomacy, and I believe it’s always better to talk to people than not,” said Jim Manley, who served as a senior adviser to the late Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid(D-Nev.). “But a key part of diplomacy is timing. And the timing here is absolutely lousy.” “It’s embarrassing for the signers, it undercuts not only the administration but the Ukrainians at a key moment in time,” he added.

"Progressive" Democrats Formally Retract Call For Diplomacy As Ukraine War Hawks Steamroll Dissent --The White House has responded to a new letter sent to President Joe Biden by a group of 30 Progressive Democrats urging what they dubbed a dramatic shift in policy on Ukraine toward prioritizing diplomacy with an aim to urgently get the warring parties at the negotiating table."We’ve been very clear: Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine," White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters on Monday in response to the letter, adding that "this is a decision that President Zelensky is going to have to make when it comes to any type of conversation with Russia, any type of negotiation."Rep. Pramila Jayapal had warned in leading the group's letter, which was also singed by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, "The longer the war in Ukraine goes on, the greater the risk of escalation — to widespread, devastating effect." She said "my colleagues and I are urging the Administration to engage in a proactive diplomatic push in an effort to seek a realistic framework for a ceasefire." The letter had also warned of the possibility of nuclear war, especially if the US doesn't make efforts toward a diplomatic track with Russia, but many have also noted the glaring contradictions - such as talk of still supporting ongoing massive military aid to the Ukrainians. That didn't take long... the 30 Houses Progressive Democrats led by Rep. Pramila Jayapal (WA-07), chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, has early Tuesday afternoon issued a complete retraction of their letter sent to the Biden White House urging diplomacy on Ukraine, per an official statement [emphasis ours]: "The Congressional Progressive Caucus hereby withdraws its recent letter to the White House regarding Ukraine.""The letter was drafted several months ago, but unfortunately was released by staff without vetting. As Chair of the Caucus, I accept responsibility for this. Because of the timing, our message is being conflated by some as being equivalent to the recent statement by Republican Leader McCarthy threatening an end to aid to Ukraine if Republicans take over. The proximity of these statements created the unfortunate appearance that Democrats, who have strongly and unanimously supported and voted for every package of military, strategic, and economic assistance to the Ukrainian people, are somehow aligned with Republicans who seek to pull the plug on American support for President Zelensky and the Ukrainian forces."What's more is that Jayapal's retraction - after giving the ole "blame the interns" excuse ("unfortunately was released by staff without vetting") - actually goes so far as to suggest diplomacy won't be possible until after Ukrainian victory. The retraction concludes: "Nothing could be further from the truth. Every war ends with diplomacy, and this one will too after Ukrainian victory. The letter sent yesterday, although restating that basic principle, has been conflated with GOP opposition to support for the Ukrainians’ just defense of their national sovereignty. As such, it is a distraction at this time and we withdraw the letter."Glenn Greenwald observes they couldn't even hold out for 24 hours... Holy shit! The humiliation of @RepJayapal and the House Progressive Caucus just got worse, even when it appeared it couldn't. Her degrading reversal of their Ukraine letter after 1 day wasn't enough. Now they're formally "retracting" it, blaming staff.https://t.co/PjM7uRR0w9 There's also a "blame the GOP" defense going on in this deeply awkward and embarrassing episode, which might also be the clearest demonstration yet of war hawks and the Washington deep state's swift ability to so easily coopt and control the talking points of these "progressives". A contingency of thirty of them got steamrolled into conformity literally within a matter of hours.

24 hours after calling for negotiations to end Ukraine war, DSA and “progressive” Democrats demand escalation - On Monday, 30 members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus sent a letter to President Joe Biden suggesting the US negotiate with Russia to bring an end to the war in Ukraine. The letter cited “the catastrophic possibilities of nuclear escalation and miscalculation” and expressed concern that the war is forcing billions of people worldwide to suffer loss of access to food and other necessities. On Tuesday, with the “catastrophic possibilities” just as great as the day before, the Democratic signatories—including all four congressional members of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA)—withdrew their letter, repudiated calls for negotiations and pledged their full support for the war. The reversal was immediate and total. In a statement published Tuesday, Caucus Chair Pramila Jayapal (Democrat-Washington state) called Monday’s letter “unfortunate” and apologized on behalf of the letter’s signatories for causing a “distraction” to the war effort. “The Congressional Progressive Caucus hereby withdraws its recent letter to the White House regarding Ukraine,” she stated. Not a single member of the caucus voiced any opposition to the reversal. Jayapal did not merely withdraw the letter, she also committed the caucus to support the war until Russia is forced to capitulate. “Every war ends with diplomacy,” she wrote, “and this one will too after Ukrainian victory.” But according to the letter issued on Monday, if the Russian government lacks “a realistic framework for a ceasefire,” then the “risk of catastrophic escalation” will only grow. While the signatories wrote Monday that “the alternative to diplomacy is protracted war, with both its attendant certainties and catastrophic and unknowable risks,” on Tuesday they chose “protracted war” and accepted the risks. Such is the reactionary dynamic of Democratic Party politics. This profile in political cowardice once again demonstrates that the Democratic Party, like its Republican counterpart, is nothing but a political pillar of American imperialism. It is a vehicle for prosecuting Wall Street’s reckless drive for world domination. Its “left” wing, represented by politicians like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (Democrat-New York), is no exception. These heroes of the upper-middle class “left” are scrambling over one another to erase their signatures from Monday’s letter asking for negotiations. In a transparently false attempt to blame her subordinates, Jayapal (who claims to be a supporter of the rights of employees against employers) ignominiously said the letter “unfortunately was released by staff without our vetting.”

Worthless House Progressives Retract Mild Peace Advocacy Under Pressure From Warmongers – Caitlin Johnstone -The Congressional Progressive Caucus has retracted an extremely mild, toothless letter its members had written to President Biden politely asking him to consider adding a little diplomacy into the mix to help end the conflict in Ukraine. The retraction followed a deluge of public outrage against their slight deviation from the official imperial narrative.If you actually read the original letter signed by House progressives including Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ilhan Omar, Ayanna Pressley, Rashida Tlaib, Jamaal Bowman and Ro Khanna, you will quickly see that it’s as innocuous and anodyne as any statement could possibly be while still containing words. It opens with effusive praise for Biden’s interventionism in Ukraine and condemns the Russian government unequivocally throughout, offering only the humble suggestion that he “pair the military and economic support the United States has provided to Ukraine with a proactive diplomatic push, redoubling efforts to seek a realistic framework for a ceasefire.” Its authors make it abundantly clear that they support making sure such diplomacy is agreeable to Ukraine at every step of the way.This impotent nothing salad was bizarrely spun by The Washington Post as a call on Biden to “dramatically shift his strategy on the Ukraine war,” despite nothing that could be remotely construed as “dramatic” existing anywhere in the body of the text. The letter received backlash from warmongers in both parties, including from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. It was personally slammed by Bernie Sanders, the pope of American progressivism. Trolls and warmongers swarmed the social media notifications of every account which posted the letter in an official capacity, mindlessly bleating the words “appeasement” and “Chamberlain” in unison.In a statement on the retraction of the letter, CPC chair Pramila Jayapal says she accepts responsibility for the publication of the offending act of peacemongering while in the same breath blaming its publication on her staff“The letter was drafted several months ago, but unfortunately was released by staff without vetting. As Chair of the Caucus, I accept responsibility for this,” Jayapal said. “Every war ends with diplomacy, and this one will too after Ukrainian victory,” the statement reads, ignoring mainstream reports that US officials quietly believe Ukraine stands no chance at outright victory in this war. “The letter sent yesterday, although restating that basic principle, has been conflated with GOP opposition to support for the Ukrainians’ just defense of their national sovereignty. As such, it is a distraction at this time and we withdraw the letter.”Empire critics were quick to highlight the obsequious nature of this retraction.“For progressives, I didn’t think it could get more pathetic than voting for a disastrous proxy war that the US provoked and prolonged, handing billions to arms makers in the process. In retracting their tepid call for diplomacy and blaming staffers for it, they somehow surpassed it,” tweeted Aaron Maté.“Certainly speaks to the insanely hawkish atmosphere in Washington that pressured the progressive caucus to withdrawal a totally reasonable, responsible and necessary call for diplomacy in a conflict that risks escalating to nuclear armageddon,” tweeted Rania Khalek.“Imagine being elected to Congress based on promises of challenging ‘the establishment’ or whatever, then being so petrified of anger from bipartisan DC establishment mavens that you can’t even wait 24 hours before meekly retracting the only mild dissent you’ve expressed,” tweeted Glenn Greenwald.

‘Pelosi pushes back on the left on Ukraine aid - Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) on Tuesday vowed more aid for Ukraine when lawmakers wrap up must-pass government funding legislation later this year, the day after a group of House progressives called for a renewed push to find a diplomatic solution to the war there. Pelosi, speaking during a visit to Croatia, pledged more support while touting the aid Congress has allocated for Ukraine so far under the Biden administration. “When I had the privilege of leading a congressional delegation to Kyiv in May and met with President [Volodymyr] Zelensky and the Speaker and others, we conveyed a message of America’s unwavering support for Ukraine. Under President Biden, America’s delivered on that promise,” Pelosi said at the First Parliamentary Summit of the International Crimea Platform. She went on to note the billions of dollars in military, economic, humanitarian and budget assistance the U.S. has provided Ukraine amid its war with Russia, saying, “more will be on the way when we pass our omnibus funding bill this fall.” The Speaker also doubled down on the nation’s support for Ukraine in a follow-up statement issued on Tuesday: “Under President Biden, our support for Ukraine — and our determination to defend democracy — is here to stay until victory is won. Slava Ukraini!” The Congressional Progressive Caucus had raised eyebrows on Monday with a letter to Biden calling for a shift in his administration’s response to the ongoing invasion, including pushing for talks with Russia in hopes of a “realistic framework for a ceasefire.” The caucus put out second statement clarifying its position later in the day, after the earlier request prompted questions and pushback from some Democrats. “In a letter to President Biden today, my colleagues and I advocated for the administration to continue ongoing military and economic support for Ukrainians while pursuing diplomatic support to Ukraine to ensure we are helpful partners on efforts to reach ‘a solution that is acceptable to the people of Ukraine,” Congressional Progressive Caucus Chairwoman Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) said. “Let me be clear: we are united as Democrats in our unequivocal commitment to supporting Ukraine in their fight for their democracy and freedom in the face of the illegal and outrageous Russian invasion, and nothing in the letter advocates for a change in that support,” Jayapal added.

The Official Narrative On Ukraine – Caitlin Johnstone - The official narrative promoted by the entire western political/media class is that Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine in February of this year solely because he is evil and hates freedom. He wants to conquer as much of Europe as possible because he cannot stand free democracies, because he is another Adolf Hitler.The official narrative is that while Russia is in Ukraine solely because its leader is an evil monster like Hitler, the US is in Ukraine solely because its leaders are righteous. The United States is providing arms, military intelligence, and assistance on the ground from special ops forces and CIA officers to Ukraine, as well as implementing an unprecedented regime of economic warfare against Russia, solely because the US loves its good friends the Ukrainians and wants to protect their freedom and democracy.If you dispute any part of the official Ukraine narrative, you are an evil monster, and a disinformation agent. Because Vladimir Putin is the same as Adolf Hitler, you are also the same as Neville Chamberlain, and are guilty of the cardinal sin of supporting appeasement.Because you are an evil disinformation agent Neville Chamberlain appeasement monster, it is legitimate to censor you. It is legitimate to accuse you of being secretly paid by the Russian government. It is legitimate to swarm you with coordinated astroturf trolls working to shout you down and overwhelm you. It is legitimate to publish propagandistic smear pieces about you. All normal expectations of public discourse go out the window, because you are a monster, not a person.If you are tempted to ask questions which put a wobble on the official narrative, you must resist this urge at all cost. Don’t ask why western officials, scholars and strategists have spent years warningthat the actions of western governments would lead to this war. Don’t ask what people are talking about when they say the US provoked this war, or when they say the US is using this war to advance strategic agendas it has had in place for years, or when they suggest that these things might have something to do with why the US is obstructing diplomatic solutions at every turn. If you ask questions like these, you are the worst person in the world.Per the official narrative, if you confront powerful lawmakers on their support for US interventionism in Ukraine, you are “parroting pro-Putin talking points” and spreading “Russian disinformation“. Questioning officials of the most powerful government in the world about the most consequential decisions being made in the world is violence, and is not allowed.

In Stunning Strategy Reversal, Pentagon Will No Longer Rule Out Use Of Nuclear Weapons Against Non-Nuclear Threat - Moments ago, as part of his closely-watched speech, Vladimir Putin appeared to talk down the likelihood of a nuclear attack in Ukraine: Which, however, is more than can be said about the US. As Bloomberg just reported, the Pentagon's new National Defense Strategy rejects limits on using nuclear weapons long championed by arms control advocates (and, in the not too distant past, by Joe Biden) citing burgeoning threats from Russia and China. “By the 2030s the United States will, for the first time in its history face two major nuclear powers as strategic competitors and potential adversaries,” the Defense Department said in the long-awaited document issued Thursday. In response, the US will “maintain a very high bar for nuclear employment” without ruling out using the weapons in retaliation to a non-nuclear strategic threat to the homeland, US forces abroad or allies. In yet another stark reversal for the senile occupant of the White House basement, in his 2020 presidential campaign Biden had pledged to declare that the US nuclear arsenal should be used only to deter or retaliate against a nuclear attack, a position blessed by progressive Democrats and reviled by defense hawks. But, like with every other position held by the pathological liar who even trumps Trump in the untruth department, this one has just been reversed as well as "the threat environment has changed dramatically since then" and the Pentagon strategy was forged in cooperation with the flip-flopping White House. In a stunning move that should - or rather "should" - spark outrage among the so-called progressives but will at best prompt some very sternly retracted letters, the nuclear report that’s part of the broader strategy said the Biden administration reviewed its nuclear policy and concluded that “No First Use” and “Sole Purpose” policies “would result in an unacceptable level of risk in light of the range of non-nuclear capabilities being developed and fielded by competitors that could inflict strategic-level damage” to the US and allies. meanwhile... Putin: The only country in the world that has used nuclear weapons against a non-nuclear state is the United States of America

“The US Signals Readiness to Launch Nuclear Strike Against Russia” --Yves here. Please note that the title is in quotes because it is the translated title of a new article from a Russian military journal that Helmer has translated in full below. Aside from this nervous-making reading, officials in Russia do appear to be genuinely edgy: The Russian Ministry of Defense alerted its forces to work in conditions of #radioactive #contamination The ministry is activating CBRN defense procedures (Chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear defense) [….]The US has shown its readiness to launch a nuclear strike on Russia. October 24, 2022: by Alexander Timokhin - Does the United States have the ability to instantly, within a few minutes, launch a disarming and unreciprocated nuclear strike on Russia? For decades, it was assumed that no, any US attack would cause an immediate similar response from the Russian armed forces. But now there is reason to believe that Washington has come to a different conclusion – and brazenly demonstrates it.On Thursday, October 20, an exceptional event took place in the Arabian Sea. It was publicly announced that Michael Kurilla, commander of the US Central Command, paid a visit to the Ohio-class West Virginia SSBN (submarine with ballistic nuclear missiles), which specially surfaced in the Arabian Sea. This submarine, like all its ‘sister ships’, is armed with 24 Trident II ballistic missiles, each of which can carry 10 warheads at a maximum, which in total gives the vessel an ammunition supply of 240 strategic nuclear warheads.But the fact is that the purpose of such vessels is always to be secretive and never to reveal the location of their patrol. The fact that now the location of this SSB [ballistic missile submarine] is expressly highlighted, it is impossible to understand otherwise than a special signal. It is difficult to remember when earlier in this way any American military commander so clearly and openly visited a boat at sea on combat duty. All this is directly related to the nuclear deterrence system that exists between Russia and the United States.When two sides – in this case, Russia and the United States – both have nuclear weapons, and the means of their delivery to enemy territory, a missile attack warning system, and the technical capability to launch ballistic missiles after this system detects the launch of enemy missiles, then a simple missile attack becomes suicide for the attacker. If the United States or Russia launches their ballistic missiles at the enemy, the enemy will be able to launch their missiles before the attacking side’s missiles reach their target.Such a strike, when a counterattack is carried out before the enemy’s missiles have reached target, is called a ‘counter-counter’ [ответно-встречным]. It is applied with the help of intercontinental ballistic missiles based in deep underground silos and ready to launch immediately.The problem is that the interval from launch command to the counter-strike takes time. And besides, it is necessary that someone from among the leaders who have the authority to order such a strike would be physically able to do it — that is, would be alive, conscious, and so on.This vulnerability can be exploited by delivering a so–called обезглавливающий удар (for Americans, the term is decapitation strike). A strike aimed at destroying the leadership. There are various ways to prevent or to balance the consequences of such a strike — we will not list them, nor the methods of their application (not only by missile strike).In addition to the decapitating blow, there is such a thing as a disarming blow (удар обезоруживающий — counterforce strike). Its goal is to attack the nuclear arsenal of the victim country in such a way that the enemy, even with a workable leadership, simply does not have time to launch its missiles in response. To do this, the time for which the blow is struck should be less than the enemy needs to make a decision and pass the order to the launchers.Therefore, in addition to providing a retaliatory nuclear strike, the country’s nuclear forces have been invested with the means of ensuring the guaranteed possibility of a retaliatory strike. Which will be produced even if the enemy struck first, and all his missiles hit their targets before at least something was launched in response. The most common way to ensure a retaliatory strike is strategic submarines. As a result, the enemy’s attack in any case causes a counter-counter or retaliatory strike. Nuclear war turns out to be a dead end; it cannot be won; and even the initiator who has attacked successfully also dies.

Advocating World War Three Is Just Mainstream Punditry Now – Caitlin Johnstone - Mainstream punditry in the latter half of 2022 is rife with op-eds arguing that the US needs to vastly increase military spending because a world war is about to erupt, and they always frame it as though this would be something that happens to the US, as though its own actions would have nothing to do with it. As though it would not be the direct result of the US-centralized empire continually accelerating towards that horrific event while refusing every possible diplomatic off-ramp due to its inability to relinquish its goal of total unipolar planetary domination.The latest example of this trend is an article titled “Could America Win a New World War? — What It Would Take to Defeat Both China and Russia” published by Foreign Affairs, a magazine that is owned and operated by the supremely influential think tank Council on Foreign Relations.“The United States and its allies must plan for how to simultaneously win wars in Asia and Europe, as unpalatable as the prospect may seem,” writes the article’s author Thomas G Mahnken, adding that in some ways “the United States and its allies will have an advantage in any simultaneous war” in those two continents.But Mahnken doesn’t claim a world war against Russia and China would be a walk in the park; he also argues that in order to win such a war the US will need to — you guessed it — drastically increase its military spending.“The United States clearly needs to increase its defense manufacturing capacity and speed,” Mahnken writes. “In the short term, that involves adding shifts to existing factories. With more time, it involves expanding factories and opening new production lines. To do both, Congress will have to act now to allocate more money to increase manufacturing.”But exploding US weapons spending is still inadequate, Mahnken argues, saying that “the United States should work with its allies to increase their military production and the size of their weapons and munitions stockpiles” as well.

US military conducts hypersonic missile launch experiments at Virginia facility - Lawmakers have criticized the Pentagon for falling behind China and Russia in hypersonic weapon development. The U.S. Army and U.S. Navy collected data on their hypersonic missile programs during tests at NASA's Wallops Flight Facility in Virginia on Wednesday. The Pentagon has prioritized hypersonic missile research in recent years as China and Russia step up development of their own next-generation weapons. Hypersonic weapons, which travel at speeds greater than five times the speed of sound, can maneuver in the air and fly at varying altitudes. A sounding rocket equipped with experimental payloads was launched Wednesday to provide data on materials and communications systems that can withstand those Mach 5 speeds. The Pentagon requested $4.7 billion for hypersonic research in the fiscal year 2023 budget, up from $3.8 billion the pervious year, according to a Congressional Research Service report this month. Still, some lawmakers have criticized the Department of Defense for falling behind Russia and China in the development of hypersonic weapon systems. "Frankly, the Chinese and the Russians just plain got ahead of us," Sen. Angus King, I-Maine, who chairs the Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces, told Fox News earlier this year. "If our strategy in the Pacific is based upon aircraft carriers, and an aircraft carrier is vulnerable to a 6,000-mile-an-hour missile, we're in trouble." The U.S. Army is aiming to have offensive hypersonic strike capability ready by next year. The Missile Defense Agency is also taking part in testing for the development of systems to combat adversaries' hypersonic weapons.

US On Hyperdrive To Deploy Hypersonic Missiles; Pentagon Records Success In Test Flight Of Mach 5+ Components - The US military has already sounded the bugle for deploying an operational hypersonic weapon as tensions continue to rise in the Indo-Pacific and a bloody war continues to engulf Europe. To that end, the Pentagon oversaw blasting off a rocket to test key ‘hypersonic components.’At the Wallops Flight Test Facility in Virginia on October 26, the US military carried out a successful test launch of a rocket for the development of hypersonic weapons. The rocket carried 11 experiments to test and gather information for hypersonic weapons development to support the joint Army-Navy effort.This was the second test conducted as part of a program to enhance land- and sea-based hypersonic capabilities.The first-ever testing of this kind was carried out in October 2021. This test is also significant as it comes over a month after the US Army announced fielding its hypersonic weapon by next year, as reported by EurAsian Times on September 9.According to a statement from the Navy, hypersonic weapon communications and navigation equipment, as well as advanced materials, were assessed to test whether they could withstand the heat in a “realistic hypersonic environment.” Further, the test was conducted the same day Russia conducted a nuclear missile test as part of its drills.

Pentagon rushes out hypersonic missile tests and upgrades nuke bombs in Europe hours after Putin stages WW3 drills -THE Pentagon scrambled to launch a rocket to run hypersonic weapon experiments just hours after Russia staged nuke drills. It comes as it is understood the US is speeding up plans to store an upgraded version of its B61 gravity nuclear bombs in Europe. Vladimir Putin oversaw land, sea and air exercises on Wednesday which, according to a Russian colonel, were to practise obliterating Britain and the US. Shortly after the deranged tyrant unleashed a barrage of missiles, the US Navy and Army blasted off a sounding rocket from a seaside NASAbase to test almost a dozen hypersonic weapon experiments.According to the Pentagon, the test from NASA's Wallops Flight Facility in Virginia was "successful" and was aimed at helping develop the hypersonic class of weapons.Sandia National Laboratories ran the test to evaluate hypersonic weapon communications and navigation equipment as well as advanced materials that can withstand the heat in a "realistic hypersonic environment," according to the US Navy.Hypersonic glide vehicles are launched from a rocket in the upper atmosphere before gliding to a target at speeds of more than five times the speed of sound, or about 6,200 km per hour.The US, Russia and China have quickened their pace to build hypersonic weapons - the next generation of arms that rob adversaries of reaction time and traditional defeat mechanisms.In a bid to accelerate the development, the Pentagon launched the prototypes using a sounding rocket, a smaller and more affordable test vehicle. Following the tests, the US is reported to have moved forward the deployment of its more accurate mainstay nuclear bombs from next spring to December, according to a US diplomatic cable.

US software gives China its hypersonic edge – - Classified US software is helping China get an edge over the former in the hypersonic weapons race, despite tight export controls on such technology.The Washington Post reported this week that blacklisted Chinese military research groups have been purchasing US software designed for computer simulations of hypersonic weapons tests. It uncovered 300 sales since 2019 of advanced software products from nearly 50 US firms to Chinese research groups involved in missile development programs.The report claims that US firms have received millions of dollars in funding from the Pentagon and circumvented US export controls by selling to Chinese private middlemen distributors. Although the US has strict export controls on such sensitive technology, The Washington Post claims that US firms have turned a blind eye to private Chinese firms.The report says that US exporters are responsible under US Commerce Department guidance to determine if their distributor sells to a restricted party or for prohibited uses. “What we’ve always told companies is you cannot self-blind,” said Deputy Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Export Administration Matthew Borman to the Washington Post.Computer simulation is critical in designing hypersonic weapons and identifying design errors before wind tunnel testing and live fire tests. At hypersonic speeds, air exhibits complex characteristics, requiring specialized aeronautical engineering software to simulate. These computer simulations allow China to advance its hypersonic weapons program while avoiding the US “test often, fail fast and learn” approach.The Washington Post claims that the Chinese Academy of Aerospace Aerodynamics (CAAA) used US simulation software to develop the hypersonic glide vehicle used in China’s August 2021 hypersonic glide vehicle test (HGV), wherein it circled the globe before crashing into its target. General Mark Milley, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, described the test as a “Sputnik moment,” reflecting the surprise China’s hypersonic missile test caused throughout the US defense establishment.US software may have also aided China to design the high-end microchips necessary for its supercomputers to run hypersonic weapons simulations. Electronic design automation (EDA) software is at the heart of this design process, as it allows engineers ever more complex chips with billions of microscopic transistors on integrated circuits. However, according to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Review, the US has a near-monopoly on EDA software, with US companies controlling 70% of the global market.Despite that near-monopoly, in 2021, The Washington Post reported that Chinese semiconductor company Phytium Technologies used US EDA software to design microchips for supercomputers used to run hypersonic weapons simulations, with the microchips manufactured in Taiwan.

White House Seeks "Large Amount" Of Funding For Domestic Uranium Strategy Our view from December 2020 was that sooner or later, nuclear would be included in the ESG basket (see "Is This The Beginning Of The Next ESG Craze"). There have been multiple signals from the US Energy Department to develop a domestic uranium strategy. We first pointed this out in March in a note titled "Uranium Stocks Soar After US Signals Aid For Nuclear Power." Then in June, in a note titled "Uranium Stocks Soar On Report US Seeking Billions To End Reliance On Russian Enriched Uranium."On Wednesday, Jennifer Granholm, the US energy secretary, gave even more clues about a domestic uranium strategy that would eventually eliminate the US reliance on Russia and its allies Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan for about 50% of its uranium needs, according to Reuters. "The United States wants to be able to source its own fuel from ourselves and that's why we are developing a uranium strategy," Granholm told reporters at the International Atomic Energy Agency conference in Washington. "We'll be working on ... enhancing that and making sure that we can fuel our own reactors as well as the partners to those who also have those ambitions," she added.In August, President Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act, which helps pave the way for nuclear energy to reduce US emissions before the decade's end. Momentum is certainly building for expanding zero-emission nuclear power production and sourcing uranium domestically, outlined in the IRA via increased investments and tax incentives. IRA contained $700 million to produce a high assay low enriched uranium (HALEU) supply for advanced nuclear power plants. Then in September, the White House requested Congress to allocate $1.5 billion in a temporary government funding bill to boost domestic HALEU supply. Granholm said the White House will "seek an additional large amount by the year-end for a more fulsome strategy."

‘Outrageous’: GOP anger at new Pentagon abortion policy could roil defense bill debate -Senate leaders were hoping to quickly clear major defense legislation and lock in a significant boost to President Joe Biden’s Pentagon budget in the seven-week sprint between the midterms and the new year. Then the Pentagon rolled out its new policy on abortion.. The directive, announced last week, says the Defense Department will now cover travel costs for troops and family members seeking abortions. The move could complicate final passage of the annual National Defense Authorization Act in the Senate as Democrats try to avoid a repeat of last year, when the legislation stalled on the floor. Republicans on Capitol Hill claimed the administration was politicizing the military by wading into the abortion debate with weeks to go before an election and siphoning money from top national security needs. Now, some GOP lawmakers want to use the Pentagon policy bill to block the post-Roe v. Wade initiative. Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall called it an “outrageous memorandum” and demanded Majority Leader Chuck Schumer allow votes on amendments to block the policy. “With all of the challenges we face globally, DoD needs to make our national security their top priority,” Marshall said in a statement. The top Republican on the House Armed Services Committee, Rep. Mike Rogers of Alabama, criticized the policy last week, demanding answers on the origin of Austin’s memo. He also hinted at a legislative push to stymie the policy. “Taxpayer dollars meant for deterring China and other adversaries should not be squandered on campaign politics,” Rogers said. “DoD must be blocked from wasting any portion of their budget on this horrendous policy.” Sen. Jim Inhofe of Oklahoma, the top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, piled on, adding, “Partisan policies like this are what I have fought to leave out of the defense bill in the past.” Defense legislation that passed the House in July, just weeks after the Dobbs v. Jackson abortion ruling, was silent on the debate. But the Senate must still pass its version and iron out a compromise bill with the House, leaving an opening for lawmakers to attempt to insert abortion-related language.

US Ready To Protect Asian Allies With Nukes, Biden Official Says In Tokyo -It's a hugely alarming scenario when world leaders and government officials representing nuclear-armed superpowers appear to increasingly be spouting nuclear rhetoric and warnings in an almost casual manner. US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman on Tuesday said Washington is ready to protect its Asian allies using nukes if they came under attack, spelling out the US would deploy its "nuclear, conventional and missile defense."Washington "will use the full range of US defense capabilities to defend our allies, including nuclear, conventional and missile defense capabilities," the deputy secretary told a Tuesday meeting with South Korean and Japanese officials, ahead of a series of talks this week. She hailed America's commitment to defense of Seoul and Tokyo as "ironclad".The region is currently on edge after early this week South Korea announced that its intelligence concluded Pyongyang has finalized preparations for what will be its first nuclear test in a half-decade. These warnings of an imminent North Korean nuclear test have been growing louder since early August, with the US backing Seoul's assessment. Sherman in her comments condemned the recent series of ballistic missile launches by North Korea, calling the record number of tests over the course of the year "deeply irresponsible, dangerous, and destabilizing."One of the more provocative among the latest tests saw a ballistic missile soar over Japan itself. The Asian officials meeting with Sherman in Tokyo agreed that Pyongyang is "creating serious tension on the Korean Peninsula.”

Biden dismisses Putin's claims he won't use nukes in Ukraine - Joe Biden yesterday expressed grave doubts over Vladimir Putin‘s claim that he does not plan to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. A day after the Russian president’s comment, his US counterpart hit back: “If he has no intention, why does he keep talking about it?” Putin roundly attacked the West in a rambling speech on Thursday, playing down the chance of nuclear conflict and insisting Russia had not threatened to use such weapons. He said he had only responded about the issue to nuclear “blackmail” from Western leaders and he singled out ex-PM Liz Truss, alleging she made “crazy” comments about preparedness to use nuclear arms when Foreign Secretary. Mr Biden was far from convinced and said: “If he has no intention, why does he keep talking about it? Why is he talking about the ability to use a tactical nuclear weapon? He’s been very dangerous in how he’s approached this.” Putin and some officials have said in recent weeks that Russia might use nuclear arms to protect its territorial integrity – seen in the West as an implicit threat to use them to defend parts of Ukraine that Moscow says it has annexed. Senior aides in Mr Biden’s regime expressed concern over Russia’s intentions to deploy the weaponry as it struggles on the battlefield. John Kirby, his national security spokesman, said Russia might consider using a “dirty bomb” and was setting up a pretext to blame Ukraine. Kremlin chiefs accused Ukraine of planning such a device, where conventional explosives are laced with radioactive material. Yet Mr Kirby said the US had not seen any signs that Russia would deploy one: “They often blame others for that which they are doing themselves or about to do. So that’s why we have to take that seriously.” As fighting continued and explosions rocked the eastern Ukraine city of Bakhmut, a senior Kremlin official threatened to “strike” Western satellites helping Kyiv – an untested area of international law. Foreign ministry aide Konstantin Vorontsov warned: “Quasi-civilian infrastructure may be a legitimate target for a retaliatory strike.” He called the West’s satellite support “an extremely dangerous trend”. No country has attacked another’s satellite and such action during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine might sharply escalate Russia-US tension. Ukraine’s military relies on Elon Musk’s SpaceX program for broadband internet beamed from its low-orbit Starlink network. US firms such as Maxar capture images of the war from satellites while many Ukrainian communications devices use the Iridium satellite network. Mr Kirby said that an attack on US infrastructure would be met with an, unspecified, response.

The Boy Who Cried Hitler: Notes From The Edge Of The Narrative Matrix – Caitlin Johnstone - Criticism of US foreign policy looks like Russian propaganda to people who’ve spent their entire lives marinating in US propaganda.They need so much propaganda, censorship and organized trolling because without those things the public would realize that pouring billions of dollars into an unwinnable conflict that risks nuclear war and makes everyone poorer actually sucks and doesn’t benefit normal people.Comparisons of Putin to Hitler only sound profound and relevant if you only just began paying attention to US foreign policy and are therefore unaware that literally every single US enemy isalways copiously compared to Hitler. It’s like The Boy Who Cried Wolf, except there is no wolf, and the boy just keeps crying “Wolf!” over and over again, and the villagers never learn their lesson and never stop believing him.Because mainstream westerners ignored all wars until Ukraine, they don’t know we’ve seen all these tricks before. They don’t know the war propaganda is airing reruns. They think it’s new to compare today’s Official Enemy to Hitler. They never question the atrocity narratives. They don’t know the US always lies about every war. They think it’s a crazy conspiracy theory to suggest that the actions and motives of their government isn’t what they’ve been told. They say “Uh, hello? PUTIN is the one who invaded!” like that obvious fact somehow makes it impossible to be lied to about the other aspects of the war.Because they weren’t paying attention to all the empire’s tricks leading up to this, they don’t see the same old patterns rolling themselves out yet again, often by the same old voices as before. They don’t know what patterns to watch for, so they don’t see or recognize them. That’s the only reason their eyes don’t reflexively roll when they’re told today’s Official Enemy invaded completely unprovoked, solely because he is evil and hates freedom, or that the US is defending its friends the Ukrainians because it wants to protect freedom and democracy.If you only just started paying attention and don’t know the US power alliance literally always lies about every war it’s involved in, the war propaganda slides down their throats with zero gag reflex, because they don’t recognize it as propaganda. It’s unfamiliar to them.

Trump bragged about new US nuclear weapons, Woodward tape shows -In a taped conversation with Bob Woodward, Donald Trump boasted about US nuclear weapons development.“I have built a weapon system that nobody’s ever had in this country before,” the then president told the veteran Washington Post reporter. “We have stuff that you haven’t even seen or heard about. We have stuff that Putin and Xi have never heard about before.”The recording aired on CNN on Tuesday, the day Woodward published The Trump Tapes, an audio book of 20 interviews carried out as Woodward wrote three bestsellers on the Trump presidency, Fear, Rage and Peril (the last co-written with Robert Costa).Woodward said he looked into Trump’s claim and was told by an official it was true.“Xi [Jinping] and [Vladimir] Putin would not know about” the weapons system, Woodward said. “But why is Trump bragging about it?”Trump’s cavalier attitude to nuclear issues has landed him in hot water elsewhere. Documents dealing with nuclear weapons policy were reportedlyamong classified material recovered from Mar-a-Lago, Trump’s Florida home, by the FBI in August.That is just one front on which Trump remains in legal jeopardy, others including his incitement of the January 6 insurrection, his attempts to overturn the 2020 election, his business affairs and a defamation suit from a writer who says Trump raped her.Trump denies wrongdoing and maintains a lead in polls concerning the Republican presidential nomination. He is reportedly trying to appoint senior campaign aides, including, according to the Post, the Republican operative behind the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth attacks on John Kerry 20 years ago.Woodward, 79, made his name half a century ago, during the Watergate scandal which forced Richard Nixon from office. Nixon resigned when threatened with impeachment. Trump was impeached twice but acquitted by Senate Republicans.On CNN, Woodward said: “I once said to Trump, because he was kind of asking, ‘What do you think the president’s job is?’ And I said, it is to ascertain the next stage of good for a majority of people in the country, not one party or a bunch of interest groups, and then develop a comprehensive plan and execute it.“And he said: ‘Oh, that’s good. That’s great.’ Never did he do this.”

Russia Warns US Non-Military Satellites Are "Legitimate Targets" - Russia has issued a new warning Thursday aimed at the United States at a moment Moscow-appointed officials appear to be retreating from the southern city of Kherson as it comes under increased Ukrainian shelling. The Associated Press reports of the new Kremlin warning as follows, "Amid the battles, Russia issued a warning that the United States could be drawn into the conflict, adding it could target Western commercial satellites used for military purposes in support of Ukraine."The statement came from the deputy chief of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s arms control and nonproliferation department, Konstantin Vorontsov, who said "Quasi-civilian infrastructure could be a legitimate target for retaliation."It also comes soon on the heels of the question of potential Pentagon funding for Elon Musk’s Starlink systems, after SpaceX said it can't be expected to foot the bill indefinitely.Ukraine's forces have called Starlink essential to its ability to repel the Russian advance, as it's often used in frontline communications where no other comms links exist. According to The Moscow Times: Commercial satellites used by the United States to assist Ukraine in its war against Russia are “legitimate” targets for attacks, a Russian diplomat said Wednesday.Private assets like Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite internet constellation, as well as Maxar and Planet Labs earth observation satellites, have proven critical in keeping Ukrainians online and piercing the fog of war.This is not the first time the Kremlin suggested such a threat. Vorontsov had warned just last month that non-military satellites used by Ukraine "constitute indirect involvement in military conflicts" - hinting that they could eventually be targeted.

Chinese intelligence officers charged in Huawei prosecution obstruction - Two Chinese intelligence officers have been criminally charged with attempting to obstruct the prosecution of the Huawei global telecommunications company by trying to steal confidential information about the case, Attorney General Merrick Garland said Monday.Garland also announced two more criminal cases related to efforts by the Chinese government to interfere in U.S. affairs.One in New Jersey charges three Chinese intelligence agents with conspiring to act in the United States as illegal agents on behalf of a foreign government.The other in the Eastern District of New York accuses several people working on behalf of the Chinese government of "engaging in a multi-year campaign of threats and harassment to force a U.S. resident to return to China," Garland said."Last Thursday, we arrested two of those defendants," the attorney general said."As these cases demonstrate, the government of China sought to interfere with the rights and freedoms of individuals in the United States and to undermine our judicial system that protects those rights," Garland said."They did not succeed," he added.The criminal complaint related to Huawei accuses Guochun He and Zheng Wang of paying a U.S. government employee a total of $61,000 worth of Bitcoin cryptocurrency for confidential information about the Justice Department's pending prosecution of the China-based company.That information included details about witnesses, trial evidence and potential new charges to be brought against Huawei, according to the complaint in U.S. District Court in Brooklyn.Huawei is not identified by name in the complaint, but details in it match up with the known prosecution of the company."This was an egregious attempt by [People's Republic of China] intelligence officers to shield a PRC-based company from accountability and to undermine the integrity of our judicial system," Garland said.

State & Local Agencies Went All-In On Chinese Telecom Gear Despite Federal Ban - While the federal government went to great lengths to block Chinese telecom equipment from US supply chains, state and local governments across the country continued to acquire all sorts of products designated a threat to national security, Axios reports, citing a new report published Wednesday by Georgetown University's Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET). Federal officials, particularly under the Trump administration, have been warning that Chinese telecom equipment could open US systems to economic espionage or digital sabotage. As Axios notes; State and local governments should better align themselves with federal policies in order to keep the gear out of schools, hospitals and other critical infrastructure across the country, according to a report published today by Georgetown University's Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET). Federal agencies have been banned since 2018 from procuring products from Chinese tech companies Huawei, ZTE, Hikvision, Dahua, and Hytera.However, federal-level bans don't apply to state agencies.Only five states — Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Texas and Vermont — have enacted some measures to limit procurement of such equipment on national security grounds, though the report warns loopholes still exist in some of those states.The report highlights that between 2015 and 2021, at least 1,681 state and local entities bought equipment and services tied to five Chinese companies. The total value of these purchases was around $45 million, of which around 75% came from public school districts, colleges, and universities.

U.S. issues fresh sanctions against Iranian officials for 'brutal' crackdown on peaceful protestors following Mahsa Amini's death continue - The U.S. Treasury announced a fresh round of sanctions Wednesday against Iranian officials for brutal violence against peaceful demonstrators as protests following the death of Kurdish Iranian woman Mahsa Amini continue.The new sanctions come 40 days after the 22-year-old Amini's death in the custody of Iran's morality police. Iranian officials have continued their crackdown on protesters while limiting access to internet services."Forty days after the tragic death of Mahsa Amini, Iranians continue to bravely protest in the face of brutal suppression and disruption of internet access," Brian E. Nelson, under secretary of the Treasury said in a statement. "The United States is imposing new sanctions on Iranian officials overseeing organizations involved in violent crackdowns and killings, including of children, as part of our commitment to hold all levels of the Iranian government accountable for its repression."Amini died under suspicious circumstances at a hospital in the Iranian capital Tehran on Sept. 16 after being detained by its so-called morality police for wearing her hijab head wrap too loosely. Eyewitnesses claim she was beaten by police while Iranian authorities said Amini died of a heart attack.Protests following her death have spread to more than 50 cities. The government has tried to conceal strikes against protesters with widespread internet outages beginning at 4 p.m. local time and continuing into the night. Tehran also blocked access to WhatsApp and Instagram, two of the last remaining uncensored social media services in Iran.Wednesday saw a fresh wave of violence in Amini's hometown of Saqqez assecurity forces clashed with about 10,000 mourners at her gravesite. Internet access in the region was also cut off.Large numbers of riot police were also deployed to Tehran Wednesday, according to a witness account. More than 180 people have been killedsince the protests began.Treasury designated 10 Iranian officials, two Iranian intelligence actors and two Iranian entities involved in the Iranian government's efforts to interfere with internet access:

Wall Street Journal on “U.S.-Saudi Relations Buckle” Focuses on Personalities Over End of Unipolar Era by Yves Smith --The Wall Street Journal has a new story, U.S.-Saudi Relations Buckle, Driven by Animosity Between Biden and Mohammed bin Salman, which is as good as you can expect from the US media, which means extremely good in many respects, yet with important omissions and blind spots. Even though this account is appearing in the Journal, as opposed to say the New York Times or Washington Post, it comes off as a concerned but still orthodox account of why a key relationship is going off the rails.However, the headline demonstrates its core flaw, that the authors, no doubt mirroring conventional wisdom, depict the big reason for the breakdown as personalities, that Biden and Mohammed bin Salman can’t abide each other. The article contends that because the Saudi kingdom is a small place, administratively speaking, the US-Riyadh relationship has always been conducted on a personal basis, to a significant degree between the President and the King or Crown Prince, as appropriate.Now it is true that both sides have made the deteriorating relationship pretty personal. Reading between the lines, just the same way the Biden Administration deliberately goaded China in its Alaska summit, so to Team Biden appeared to try to set out to put the Saudis in their place:When Mr. Biden was elected, Prince Mohammed huddled with advisers at a seaside palace to complete a plan to woo the new president, according to people familiar with the matter.The Saudis delivered a few concessions on a topic Mr. Biden had campaigned on—human rights—including the eventual release of Loujain al-Hathloul, a prominent women’s-rights campaigner who says she was tortured in detention, and two Saudi-American prisoners. And they quickly patched up a feud with neighboring Qatar after leading an economic boycott against it which Mr. Trump had initially supported.Mr. Biden’s response shocked Prince Mohammed, the people said. In his first weeks in office, the president froze Saudi arms sales, reversed a last-minute Trump administration decision to label Yemen’s Houthi rebels a foreign terrorist organization, and published the intelligence report on Mr. Khashoggi’s killing which Mr. Trump had previously dismissed.For the Biden administration, these steps were a necessary correction. To the Saudis, Mr. Biden’s early moves were a slap in the face. Admittedly, the fact the Saudis have also made responses that look petty has made it easy to focus on the poor dynamics. As we recounted, the US was incandescent when OPEC+ cut production by 2 million barrels. The Saudis would have none of the US chiding accusing them of being Rooskie stooges and they released details intended to put the Biden administration in a bad light, that they had effectively conceded the necessity of the output cut but has pressed the Saudis to put it off for a month, clearly to help Biden at the midterms.Nowhere does the article acknowledge that the US and EU are trying to break OPEC+ with their oil price cap scheme. Nor does it acknowledge that other Middle Eastern OPEC members cleared their throats to say they supported the cuts (as in denied the US charge that the went along because the Saudis insisted).The Saudis have continued goading the US by not inviting it to the new, so-called Davos in the Desert. Moon of Alabama describes how the US press is covering for this diss in Some Media Won’t Tell You When The Saudis Snub Biden.If you read the article carefully so to not be distracted by the (intriguing) backstory of how the US historically dealt with the Saudi royals for decades, which has the effect of turning the tale into a bit of a celebrity drama, it does contain what is the underlying driver of the breakdown: the Saudis want to redefine the relationship in light of different power dynamics and needs and the US wants none of it.

Turkey backs Saudi Arabia in clash with U.S. over OPEC+ oil production cuts — Turkey has sided with Saudi Arabia in its deepening standoff with the US over OPEC+’s decision to cut oil production. “We see that a country stands up and threatens Saudi Arabia,” Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said in the Mediterranean port city of Mersin on Friday. “This bullying is not right.” As an oil importer, higher prices have hit Turkey’s trade balance and fueled already sky-high inflation. Yet the government is eyeing financial support from the Gulf states and Russia to alleviate a cost-of-living crisis ahead of next year’s elections, and has grown closer to Saudi Arabia and other regional countries as it hedges its position with the West. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners, a 23-nation alliance led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, on Oct. 5 opted to lower their output targets by 2 million barrels a day from next month. Cavusoglu spoke just days after White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said the US would consider changes to the security and military support it provides to Riyadh in response to the decision. Middle East oil producers have publicly backed Saudi Arabia and Turkey adds another regional political heavyweight to the ranks of its supporters. “If you want the prices to go down then lift these sanctions,” Cavusoglu said, referring to curbs imposed on oil producers Iran and Venezuela. “You can’t solve the problem by threatening one country.” The US has said OPEC+’s decision will hurt the global economy and add to inflationary pressures. President Joe Biden -- who’s popularity has been hit by soaring pump prices -- said there would be “consequences” for Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ producers have denied they’re lowering supply for political reasons and said they needed to re-balance the crude market because a weakening global economy was slowing the growth of oil demand. “Turkey is not happy with the rising prices, but we’re not using a language of threat,” Cavusoglu said. “The whole world needs Venezuela’s oil and natural gas. There is an embargo on Iranian oil.”

Still Allies: US and Saudi Arabia Will Work Out Oil Spat - Riyadh and Washington will work through the recent tensions in their relationship and remain allies, a senior Saudi official and JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s chief executive said at the Future Investment Initiative conference. An escalating dispute over an OPEC+ decision to cut oil production risks causing lasting damage to political relations between the US and Saudi Arabia. Wall Street seems unfazed, with a big turnout for the start of the kingdom’s FII event on Tuesday. “It’s a blip,” Saudi Arabia’s Investment Minister Khalid Al-Falih told global executives, investors and Saudi government officials at the conference. “In the long term we’re solid allies,” said Falih, a former energy minister and ex-chairman of oil giant Aramco. “We’re close and we’re going to get over this recent spat that I think was unwarranted and it was a misunderstanding hopefully.” He cited strong ties in the corporate world, in education and in terms of people-to-people relations. Falih’s remarks were echoed by JPMorgan Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon, who also warned against what he referred to as America’s “everything our way” policy.

Biden team reworks plan for Russia oil-price cap as markets sour - U.S. officials are being forced to scale back a plan to impose a cap on Russian oil prices, as investors have grown skeptical and risks have grown in financial markets, Bloomberg News reported on Wednesday. The United States and other G7 countries are developing a price cap on Russian seaborne oil deliveries to cut Russia’s oil revenues, while encouraging Moscow to continue to produce oil. The United States and the European Union are likely to settle for a more loosely policed cap at a higher price than once envisioned, with just the Group of Seven (G7) nations and Australia committed to abide by it, the report said, citing people familiar with the matter. South Korea has also privately told G7 nations it plans to comply, while G7 officials are seeking to bring New Zealand and Norway on board as well, the report added. Officials involved in the plans are discussing a cap at the higher end of the range of $40 to $60 per barrel and above, which was spearheaded internally and externally by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in an earlier iteration of the U.S. plan, according to the outlet. “The White House and the administration are staying the course on implementing an effective, strong price cap on Russian oil in coordination with the G7 and other partners,” a spokeswoman for the White House’s National Security Council, Adrienne Watson, said in a statement to Bloomberg. Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo said this month that the United States was starting to see success with discussions of a Russian oil price cap by the G7.

Why Biden Wants To Release More Oil From The SPR - Last week, the White House caused a splash by announcing that President Biden was ready to release more crude from the strategic petroleum reserve.That would be on top of the largest-ever release of 180 million barrels, approved earlier this year as a tool for bringing down retail fuel prices. Back then, experts warned this tool could hurt its wielder. Now, the danger seems to be even greater.“We remain very able, very vigilant: if we need to deal with additional challenges with supply, with affordability, we’ll have additional opportunity with the SPR if we need to do more sales into the future beyond that December time period,” one senior administration official told the Financial Times this week.This makes further sales from the SPR virtually a certainty: analysts expect prices to rise in December after the European Union embargo on Russian crude comes into effect, which will happen on the 5th of the month.With OPEC+ reducing output by about a million barrels daily from November, this means that the supply of crude globally will tighten in the coming months. And when supply tightens, prices rise.Many see Biden’s latest move as a way of earning credit for the Democrat government ahead of the midterm elections. Biden himself says there is no political motive behind the SPR release strategy. And Goldman Sachs analysts justsaid this week that SPR releases would have only a modest effect on prices.In a note last week, they wrote that they expected the White House to release another 16 million barrels in 2023 “from FY2023 Congressionally mandated sales” but that those sales, first, would depend on oil prices and, second, would only have a limited impact on prices of less than $5 per barrel.The biggest problem with using the SPR as a way of regulating oil prices is that, being a strategic reserve, it would be dangerous to draw too much from it. Another 16 million barrels on top of the 180 million approved for release this year should not make a major difference in inventory levels, but observers are already getting nervous about those levels.At a little over 400 million barrels, the current amount of oil in the SPR is not enough for a month of consumption in case of emergency. One might point out that the U.S. cannot consume only locally produced oil for any length of time, which makes the SPR redundant, but it could certainly trade it for other blends should such a need arise.It seems not everyone is really buying the assurance that there is no political motive for the new release plans. Indeed, as early as the original reserve release plan, many commentators in the media argued that with it, Biden wanted to try and make sure the Democrats win the midterms or at least do not lose them very badly because of high retail fuel prices.“After the Opec meeting and with the midterms in mind, the administration needed to be seen doing something — and that seems to be announcing more SPR barrels that were already planned,” Energy Aspects’ Amrita Sen told the FT this week.What this means is that the administration is, for all its talk of all tools on the table, severely short of actual tools. There must be awareness in the White House that the SPR is a double-edged sword, and wielding it is quite risky. Yet they are wielding it for lack of a better option.

Biden's SPR follies will hurt Americans and damage our national security -- President Joe Biden’s latest politically timed release of another 15 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve — when it was already at a 40-year low — is just the latest disgraceful move in a decades-long Democratic drive to pretend the SPR is a magic gas-price wand, which now leaves the reserve too depleted to serve its actual, important purpose.The SPR was created in 1975 to guard against attacks on the US oil supply, after the 1973-74 Arab oil boycott sought to blackmail America into abandoning Israel in the wake of the 1973 Yom Kippur War, which began with a surprise attack on the Jewish state and ended after President Richard Nixon sent Jerusalem critical supplies.In short, the reserve’s purpose is to deter foreign powers from even trying to cut off the US oil supply. It’s authorized to hold up to 714 million barrels in four Texas and Louisiana salt caverns along the Gulf of Mexico coast, near pipelines that can rapidly deliver the crude to US refineries.But the United States consumes around 20 million barrels of oil a day; the world, more than 90 million. America now produces about 12 million barrels a day, so a full SPR would let the nation go about three months if the rest of the world cut us off (assuming we had the capacity to refine it all, which sadly we don’t). But it has a far more limited capacity to address a global oil shortage.Yet since at least the turn of the century, Democrats, led by New York’s own Sen. Chuck Schumer, have pretended otherwise: It’s Schumer’s, and now Biden’s, go-to whenever gas prices spike.Problem #1: Minor releases can’t actually do much. Biden’s latest 15-million-barrel move is supposed to counter the OPEC+ cut of 2 million barrels a dayafter Saudi Arabia ignored his pleas to hold off until after the November election. (The Saudis aren’t doing Biden any favors after he vowed to make them a “pariah” state and renewed the Obama-era bid for a strategic partnershp with their arch-rival, Iran.) Do the math: This release won’t make up the difference for more than a week or two.And SPR releases can’t do much more than that because Biden’s been emptying it all year as part of of his futile effort to fight the inflation his policies caused. Plus, of course, his war on domestic production has increased what America needs to import. Also, Biden took office with a depleted SPR because, when oil prices went into freefall during the Trump years, oil-hating Dems refused to let the prez refill the SPR — and doing so simply wasn’t on the agenda when Biden came into office as prices hadn’t yet exploded. For the record, President Barack Obama wasn’t as foolish as Biden: When gas prices spiked on his watch, he embraced an “all hands on deck” approach, letting US production surge (even fracking, though it infuriated the greens).Not Joe: This president won’t abandon his shameless pander to the Green New Dealers; all he’ll do is empty out the SPR to pretend to voters that he’s addressing the issue. Meanwhile, the reserve is in no shape to protect the nation if it faces a real boycott or global supply crisis. Biden’s all-politics, short-term thinking has left us all at risk.

As GOP deploys gas price attacks, Dems have few answers - As debate season winds down, Republican congressional candidates are showing no sign of letting up on their Democratic opponents on high gasoline prices. Democrats are employing several strategies to deflect blame. At least seven of the most high-profile debates last week featured Republicans accusing Democrats of being in some way responsible for historically high gasoline prices. Republicans also charge that the United States has lost its “energy independence.”Blaming the administration and Democrats solely for high prices is misleading. Several factors, including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the recovery from the pandemic have contributed to higher prices (E&E Daily, March 15).President Joe Biden on Wednesday is announcing new releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to address the pain at the pump. But Republicans are likely to respond by calling for more drilling and accusing the president of jeopardizing the nation’s security.Incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) and Republican challenger Herschel Walker, a former NFL running back, had their first and only debate of the election season.Walker put the blame squarely on Warnock for inflation. “You have to blame this administration and Sen. Warnock,” the Republican said.“They cut our energy independence,” he continued, without explaining his use of the term. “They also raised taxes. And at the same time, they’re recklessly spending all our money.“We’ve got to become energy independent,” Walker said. “The reason why, we’re going to our enemies to ask for gas and oil. And that puts us not just in an inflation problem, but it puts us in a national security problem. And I think that’s something that I think Sen. Warnock needs to realize.”Most Republicans link “energy independence” with the United States’ export status. The U.S. became a net petroleum exporter for the first time in 2020 during the Trump presidency and remained a net exporter during the first year of the Biden presidency. In recent months, the U.S. began to import more oil than it exports.While producing more oil domestically can have geopolitical advantages, experts and observers say the idea of “energy independence” is a misnomer in a global market.In responding to Walker, Warnock said he recognized the problem of high gas prices, but put the blame on oil companies.“There’s no question that people are feeling pain, at the grocery store, at the pump, at pharmacy counters,” he said. “And while we are paying record prices, a lot of our corporate actors are seeing record profits — the oil and gas industry, the pharmaceutical industry.”

 Michigan Republicans in Congress urge Granholm to hike oil, gas output — Michigan's seven Republicans in Congress sent a letter Monday to Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm asking her to describe any administration plans or efforts to increase domestic oil and gas production. The members wrote that gas prices have been rising in Michigan in response to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries announcing it would cut oil production beginning in November. "As the Biden administration’s policies have crippled American energy independence, the United States has become increasingly reliant on foreign oil and petroleum products," the members wrote. "Despite repeated warnings from experts and Republican Members of Congress, this increased reliance on foreign oil threatens both our energy and economic security." The letter led by Rep. Tim Walberg, R-Tipton, was signed by Republican Reps. Fred Upton of St. Joseph, Bill Huizenga of Holland, John Moolenaar of Midland, Jack Bergman of Watersmeet, Lisa McClain of Bruce Township and Peter Meijer of Grand Rapids Township.They argued that Biden administration policies to limit oil and gas leasing on federal lands and offshore have contributed to rising costs by hamstringing the country's ability to meet its energy needs.Gas prices hit record highs nationally this summer after Russia invaded Ukraine, disrupting global energy markets. They dropped briefly before rising again in recent weeks. Refinery outages in Washington, California and Ohio have also recently pushed gas prices back up in the Midwest and on the west coast.The Department of Energy did not comment on the Michigan members' letter Monday, but the administration has urged oil and gas companies to increase production, argued that domestic oil production is at near-record highs, and said oil companies already have thousands of permits to drill for oil on federal land that they're not using.Granholm has also said the skyrocketing prices are a reminder that the country is more vulnerable to energy shocks because of its reliance on oil and gas rather than renewables.

Oil companies helping fund Republican takeover plans - If Republicans take the House or Senate majority in next month’s midterm elections, they’ll have the oil and natural gas industry to thank — at least to an extent. Oil and gas companies have been among some of the biggest donors to the Congressional Leadership Fund and the Senate Leadership Fund since the beginning of last year, federal campaign disclosures show. The organizations are closely tied to Republican congressional leaders and, as super political action committees, are able to raise and spend unlimited amounts of money to advocate for and against candidates, as long as they do not coordinate directly with the candidates or their campaigns. Republicans are eager to pursue policies favoring the oil and gas industry, including more leasing on federal land and fewer climate restrictions. The GOP also plans to use committee gavels to pressure administration officials against President Joe Biden’s green agenda. CLF and SLF have poured more into elections in the midterm cycle than any other organization, federal records show, as the GOP looks to maximize gains in an election year when the president’s party is expected to do poorly. CLF has spent at least $136 million, and SLF has spent at least $180 million. Records show that Chevron Corp. has given $3 million to CLF as of Sept. 30, the most recent information available, making it among the biggest donors. Other oil and gas interests aren’t far behind. The American Petroleum Institute, refining and industrial conglomerate Koch Industries Inc. and pipeline company Energy Transfer Partners LP each contributed $2 million to CLF, as did OTA Holdings LLC, a subsidiary of pipeline company Enterprise Products Partners LP, making them among the biggest donors to the organization. Drilling firm Occidental Petroleum Corp. donated $1 million. Occidental’s $4 million in donations to SLF made it among the top donors to the super PAC — though the No. 1 was One Nation, a nonprofit tied to SLF that can take in contributions without disclosing donors. Chevron gave $2.75 million to SLF, while Koch gave $1.5 million, and OTA and API each gave $1 million. Fossil fuel interests have long favored Republicans in their giving. But this cycle’s oil and gas donations to Republican-aligned super PACs are particularly notable because they overshadowed most other interests.

Oil companies rake in huge profits amid consumer squeeze - Major oil companies saw profits soar in the third quarter of 2022, continuing a trend of massive industry profits even as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine causes soaring prices for consumers. Exxon Mobil on Friday morning reported its highest earnings ever at $19.7 billion for the quarter, while Shell reported its second highest of $9.5 billion. Exxon Mobil’s quarterly profits surpassed the second quarter’s $17.9 billion, beating analyst projections by about $4 billion. The company said on an earnings call that its profits were boosted by record levels of Permian Basin oil and gas production, close to 560,000 barrels per day. Shell, meanwhile, announced profits of $9.5 billion for the quarter the previous day. Chevron also beat expectations, raking in $11.2 billion in the third quarter, also its second-highest quarter ever. Exxon has been able to offset whipsawing oil prices largely through liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. LNG demand has surged in Europe after the EU ended imports from Russia. As a result, companies in the U.S. have seized the opportunity. The news of soaring profits comes after criticism from Democrats, including President Biden, that companies are fleecing consumers at the pump. These latest earnings are likely to intensify Democratic criticism with the 2022 midterms mere weeks away. The president’s actual leverage against the companies is limited. But Biden and congressional Democrats have frequently sought to highlight both the continued prosperity of oil companies and the role of the Ukraine invasion in high gas prices because voters, fairly or unfairly, tend to blame pain at the pump on the party in power. Biden has repeatedly exhorted the industry to lower consumer prices in response to these earnings, particularly since the announcement by the OPEC+ bloc that it will cut oil production. On Thursday, the president blasted Shell’s announcement that it will buy back $4 billion in stock over the remainder of the year. “That’s more than twice of what they made in third quarter of last year. And they raised their dividends as well, so the profits are going back to their shareholders instead of going to the pump and lowering the prices,” Biden said Thursday in remarks in Syracuse, N.Y. The president also took aim at Exxon on Twitter after CEO Darren Woods defended the company’s quarterly dividend as returning their profits to customers. “Can’t believe I have to say this but giving profits to shareholders is not the same as bringing prices down for American families,” Biden’s presidential account tweeted. Democrats in Congress, meanwhile, called for a windfall profits tax on big oil companies during the summer, when consumer gas prices hit all-time highs.

Energy Execs Tell Granholm Shuttered US Oil Refineries Won't Restart - U.S. energy executives told Jennifer Granholm that shuttered crude oil refineries won’t restart, Valero’s Chief Executive Joe Gorder said on Tuesday.The comments were made to the U.S. Energy Secretary at a recent White House meeting with energy executives, Reuters reported on Tuesday.“The one interesting thing that came out of it, too, was there was consideration for the ability to restart refining capacity that had been shut down, and I think the general sentiment was that wasn’t going to happen,” Gorder said.Limited U.S. refinery capacity - and perhaps more critically, refinery capacity in specific U.S. geographic areas, known as PADDs - has spared worry in the United States over high gasoline prices and energy security.US refinery run rates were north of 90% for much of the summer, according to the EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report.Shuttered refineries unlikely to start back up are the latest nail in the U.S. refinery coffin.In June, Chevron CEO Mike Wirth posited that there would never be another new refinery built in the United States. “Building a refinery is a multi-billion dollar investment. It may take a decade. We haven’t had a refinery built in the United States since the 1970s. My personal view is that there will never be another refinery built in the United States,” Wirth said at the time. Oil and gas companies would have to weigh the benefits of committing capital ten years out that will need decades to offer a return to shareholders “in a policy environment where governments around the world are saying ‘we don’t want these products to be used in the future,’” Wirth added. Refinery utilization in the United States for the week ending October 14 was 89.5% of their operable capacity, the most recent EIA data shows.

Why Treasury is the department to watch on clean energy - President Joe Biden signed a landmark climate law in August. Now comes the hard part: actually implementing it. Much of the job falls to the Treasury Department, which is writing the rules that will determine how $369 billion in clean energy tax credits are parceled out. The stakes are enormous. The department’s guidance will effectively determine who gets paid and how. It’s also the first step to unleashing what the Biden administration hopes will be a wave of private sector clean energy investment. The administration is moving quickly to try to finalize the rules. Treasury released a request for comment on six areas of the bill earlier this month, seeking input on areas that will require clarification in the tax code. Janet Yellen, the Treasury secretary, and senior White House adviser John Podesta met Tuesday with 17 utility and labor leaders to receive feedback on the department’s guidance. The meeting is one of six such gatherings where Yellen and other Treasury officials are planning to solicit feedback from key stakeholders on the law’s implementation. A first meeting with environmental justice advocates was held on the sidelines of the Freedman’s Bank Forum earlier this month. Speaking to power sector leaders Tuesday, Yellen called the law “the most significant investment in clean energy in our nation’s history” and asked for input on how to implement it effectively. “To realize the promise of this law, we are working in tandem with all of you: utilities, project developers, manufacturers, organized labor, community organizations, and other critical actors who help supply the clean power our economy and our planet need,” Yellen said, according to her prepared remarks from the gathering. “We’d like to hear from you about how our guidance can help provide further certainty so that investments can move forward and our economy can realize the benefits as quickly as possible.” Writing regulations to enact new legislation is a feature of most recently passed laws. The process is, almost by definition, time consuming and complex. But even by that standard, writing rules for the Inflation Reduction Act, as the climate law is known, is exceedingly hard. There are two primary reasons. First, the law represents a dramatic expansion of America’s attempt to green the country’s economy. Wind, solar and electric vehicles were once among the chief beneficiaries of clean energy tax credits. Now, energy sources as diverse as nuclear, hydrogen and sustainable jet fuel will also be able to qualify for federal money. Second, it overhauls the government’s approach to clean energy subsidies. Where renewable developers once received a flat rate, the incentives are now on a sliding scale. Companies that pay prevailing wage, use domestically produced components and site projects in fossil fuel communities will receive higher payments.

'Unconditional friend': Meet the man shadowing Manchin - When Larry Puccio quit as chief of staff for his longtime friend, Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin, it took him one week to become a lobbyist. The move was so abrupt in 2010, when Manchin was governor of West Virginia, that state legislators passed a law to prevent it from happening again. It’s known as the Puccio rule. Now Puccio has followed his old friend to Washington. Advertisement He leveraged his connections with Manchin to enter the federal lobbying scene for the first time last year, a move that put large energy companies within earshot of Manchin as he was molding historic climate and energy legislation to include remarkable prizes for the fossil fuel industry. The kinship reveals Manchin’s closeness to an industry at the center of congressional and scientific scrutiny for contributing to rising temperatures. Puccio’s ascent into federal lobbying came just before Manchin had diluted, or jettisoned, some of the strongest provisions proposed to reduce emissions within the power sector. When asked if he and Puccio had discussed certain details of the climate and energy bills, Manchin said, “He’s an unconditional friend, and I talk to all my unconditional friends.” It’s been that way for a half-century. In the beginning, Manchin, then in his 20s, was a former high school football star and heir to a Marion County political dynasty. Puccio was a wavy-haired teenager who came up to Manchin’s shoulder. They grew close in the 1980s, when Manchin had a carpet business in a Fairmont strip mall, where Puccio sold organs. Both of their businesses eventually failed. But Manchin would soon ascend in state politics — and in the private sector, as an owner of a coal transport company. Puccio was at his side as a friend, an adviser and then a lobbyist. Some call him a “Manchin whisperer.” “There’s a lot of people who need Larry to obviously have an in with Joe,” said Roman Prezioso, a former Democratic state senator and lifelong friend of Manchin who grew up down the road from him in Marion County. “If you got an ace, you got to play it, and it’s made him very, very rich, and he’s been able to pick up a lot of clients.”

Climate law prods Postal Service as EV feud continues - The massive climate law that President Joe Biden signed in August includes $3 billion for the U.S. Postal Service to buy electric vehicles and build up the infrastructure needed to support them. It’s the latest development in an ongoing feud between USPS and critics who accuse the independent agency of dragging its heels on slashing emissions from its delivery fleet. The Postal Service won’t say whether it welcomes that cash infusion, nor has it offered extensive details about how it intends to use the money, prompting criticisms from congressional Democrats and environmentalists. “We’re just not clear on what they’re going to do,” said Adrian Martinez, an attorney at Earthjustice who is representing environmentalists suing USPS over its electric vehicle plans. Martinez said he’s concerned that the agency, led by Postmaster General Louis DeJoy, might try to use those funds to meet electric vehicle commitments the agency had already made before the extra $3 billion was approved. The chair of the House Oversight and Reform Committee, Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-N.Y.), is pressing USPS for answers about how it plans to spend the cash allotted for electric vehicles. In a letter sent earlier this month, Maloney gave the Postal Service an Oct. 25 deadline to send her “a detailed plan and timeline” for how it intends to use the funding. The tepid public response from USPS to the new law contrasts with those of other agencies — including EPA and the departments of the Interior and Energy — where Biden-appointed leaders have sent out press releases and spoken publicly to laud the massive increase in funding for climate and renewable energy projects. But USPS, an independent agency that has publicly sparred with the Biden administration over electric vehicles, isn’t openly celebrating the new money for EVs included in the law that congressional Democrats passed along party lines. USPS didn’t issue a press release heralding the bill or the new funds. An agency spokesperson declined to comment on whether USPS welcomes the funding. “The Postal Service commits to evaluate vehicle mix and purchase capability in shorter intervals as technology evolves and the organization’s financial and operational picture improve,” USPS spokesperson Kim Frum told E&E News in a statement. “We remain committed to reducing our carbon footprint in many area[s] of our operations and expanding the use of EVs in our fleet is a priority within the parameters mentioned.” The funding for USPS comes after the agency sparred with the Biden administration over the agency’s plans to replace outdated gasoline-powered vehicles. DeJoy announced a plan in 2021 to replace the bulk of the Postal Service’s fleet with fossil fuel-powered trucks over the next decade, prompting criticisms from senior administration officials as Biden pushed to electrify federal vehicles (Climatewire, Feb. 3).Under pressure, USPS agreed to reconsider its EV plan. The agency announced in July that at least 50 percent of its first $3 billion, 50,000-vehicle purchase would now be battery electrics — a notable increase from the 20 percent it had initially slated (Climatewire, July 21).

Political, legal battle heats up over student loan forgiveness -- The political and legal battle over President Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan has hit its biggest roadblock yet with a temporary legal hold on the program leaving borrowers in further limbo. It has also opened up the potential for more opposition by Republicans, but the White House is vowing to fight back after a federal appeals court ruled on Friday that the program should be halted. “It’s not going to stop our message. We know that there are opponents out there who don’t want us to help middle-class Americans, but it’s not going to stop us,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said on Monday. “It is a temporary order. … It does not reverse the fact that a lower court dismissed the case — let’s not forget that — or suggested that the case has any merit at all.” Friday’s order from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 8th Circuit stops the administration from disbursing relief while the court considers a challenge from six Republican-led states. A federal district judge had dismissed the case a day before, ruling that the six attorneys general representing the states did not have standing to sue because they did not demonstrate that the policy directly harms their states. Biden on Monday also bashed Republican backlash against the plan, calling it extreme and touting the policy as a way to help working Americans bounce back after the COVID-19 pandemic. “The Republican response? Sue the federal government and block, block that relief. That’s what they’ve done. I mean, think about this. That’s mega MAGA trickle-down politics in the extreme. I’ll never apologize for helping working and middle-class folks, Americans, as they recover from the pandemic,” he said in remarks at the Democratic National Committee. The order marks a temporary victory for Republicans until a larger panel can weigh in, but it could lead to more actions against student loan forgiveness, said Robert Moran, a former senior policy adviser in the Education Department under former President George W. Bush. “Republicans will continue to look for avenues to block forgiveness, and this may spur other efforts. However, the court hasn’t really ruled on anything,” Moran said. “This fight is far from over. Whoever loses the appeals court decision will inevitably appeal and won’t likely be decided until the Supreme Court weighs in.” The president celebrated his own temporary victory just hours before the order was issued. He touted in remarks on Friday that 22 million Americans had applied for student loan forgiveness in the first week of the applications being available. He also bashed Republicans who have attacked his student loan plan, including Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas) and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Green (Ga.)., asking, “Who the hell do they think they are?” Biden had turned his attention last week to the student loan plan and other issues such as reproductive rights to attract young people, a voting bloc that typically has low voter turnout in midterm elections. Jean-Pierre on Monday denied the notion that it was the White House’s goal to have borrowers see any loans forgiven prior to the midterms in light of the order stopping the program. Nonetheless, the order does cast a shadow over the plan.

Biden predicts student loan forgiveness checks will go out within two weeks -President Biden on Thursday predicted that a court fight over his student loan forgiveness program would be quickly resolved, and that borrowers would soon see their refunds materialize.“We’re gonna win that case. I think in the next two weeks you’re gonna see those checks going out,” Biden told Nexstar’s Reshad Hudson in an exclusive interview in Syracuse, N.Y.A federal appeals court ruling last Friday halted the loan forgiveness program and stopped the administration from disbursing relief while the court considers a challenge from six Republican-led states. A federal district judge had dismissed the case a day before, ruling that the six attorneys general representing the states did not have standing to sue because they did not demonstrate that the policy directly harms their states.The White House in August announced plans to forgive up to $10,000 in federal student loan debt for borrowers earning under $125,000, and as much as $20,000 for borrowers who received Pell Grants. The initiative delivered on a campaign promise from Biden, even as it fell short of some progressives to forgive more debt. It also came after loan repayments had been paused since the start of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020.

 House investigation finds insurers, benefit managers improperly limit access to birth control -Some of the nation’s largest insurers and pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) impose coverage exclusions and other restrictions on birth control products, contrary to an Affordable Care Act (ACA) requirement, according to a House investigation. Under the ACA, health plans must cover Food and Drug Administration-approved contraceptive products without cost-sharing. But a staff report from the Democrats on the House Oversight and Reform Committee found insurers and PBMs required patients to pay some of the cost or otherwise limited coverage of more than 30 birth control products. The investigation also found that companies denied many exception requests. “In the wake of the extreme Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, the ability to decide if and when to become pregnant has never been more important,” House Oversight and Reform Committee Chairwoman Carolyn Maloney (D-N.Y.) said in a statement. “I urge the Administration to further update their guidance to address the concerns identified in this report.” The law requires each plan or issuer to cover without cost-sharing at least one form of contraception in each of the 18 categories of Food and Drug Administration-approved contraceptive methods, as well as methods deemed medically appropriate by a health provider. Patients seeking to access contraceptive products that are either excluded from coverage or subject to cost-sharing requirements must submit claims through an exceptions process so that the company can evaluate whether to waive patient cost-sharing or the coverage exclusion.The investigation found the majority of companies reported denying an annual average of at least 40 percent of exception requests for contraceptive products from 2015 through 2021. For patients who need to use a different contraceptive product, the 2015 guidance stated that plans and issuers must have “an easily accessible, transparent, and sufficiently expedient exceptions process that is not unduly burdensome on the individual or a provider.”

White House warns lack of congressional funding puts immunocompromised at risk - White House coronavirus response coordinator Ashish Jha on Tuesday warned that existing COVID-19 treatments may not work against emerging subvariants of the omicron strain and a lack of congressional funding puts immunocompromised people at risk.“With some of the new subvariants emerging, some of the main tools we’ve had to protect the immunocompromised, like Evusheld, may not work moving forward. That’s a huge challenge,” Jha said.Jha was echoing a warning offered by President Biden earlier in the day.“New variants may make some existing protections ineffective for the immunocompromised. Sadly, this means you may be at a special risk this winter,” Biden said in remarks while getting his updated booster shot. “So, I urge you — I urge you to consult with your doctor on the right steps to protect yourself. Take extra precautions.”Evusheld is the only monoclonal antibody authorized as a periodic injection to prevent infection and has been essential for people with compromised or weakened immune systems.But experts and health officials have become alarmed that the treatment does not work against the BA.4.6 strain, which accounts for about 12 percent of all infections.The warnings come as most of the country has returned to pre-pandemic life, going to large indoor gatherings and events and not wearing masks.Jha said that without additional funding from Congress, the administration won’t be able to invest in treatments that work against emerging variants. Other monoclonal antibodies that were previously successful against older variants, such as one made by Regeneron, have been pulled from the market, as they are no longer effective against new variants.“Lack of congressional funding has made it difficult for us to replenish our medicine cabinet,” Jha said. “Because of a lack of congressional funding, the medicine cabinet has actually shrunk, and that does put vulnerable people at risk.”

 CDC's Child Vaccine Move Puts Dem Candidates On The Hot Seat - The CDC just made the closing weeks of 2022 campaigns a lot more volatile for some shaky Democrat candidates, especially for incumbent, pro-mandate Democrat governors like JB Pritzker, Kathy Hochul, and Gretchen Whitmer. Why? Well, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention just delivered a stark rebuke to America’s parents. In a unanimous decision, its Committee on Immunization Practices voted to add COVID-19 vaccines to the regular immunization schedule for all children, starting at the age of 6 months old.Clearly, American parents do not concur, as a mere 3.5% of parents have injected their babies and toddlers, aged 6 months to 5 years old. For school age children, a recent Kaiser Family Foundation study shows that only one-third of children aged 5-11 have received at least one shot.Contravening the CDC, The Florida Department of Health issued guidance that the data suggest that “healthy children from ages 5 to 17 may not benefit from receiving the currently available COVID-19 vaccine.” For young people of more advanced age, Florida’s Surgeon General Dr. Joseph Ladapo went further, announcing that he “recommends against the COVID-19 mRNA vaccines” for young men starting at age 18, due to myocarditis risks.The analysis of Dr. Ladapo, a scientist with two separate doctorates from Harvard, proves that science is, indeed, never “settled.” Moreover, the prevailing majority of American parents clearly agree with Florida’s skeptical approach on child vaccinations, and for valid data-based reasons. For example, after reviewing the relevant evidence, some European countries now actually forbid the injections for young people. Denmark’s Health Authority determined that because “children and adolescents rarely become severely ill from the Omicron variant of covid-19,” that child COVID vaccination is no longer possible except for “a very limited number of children at particularly higher risk.”Despite such appropriate concerns about vaccinating children who remain overwhelmingly invulnerable to dire effects of the virus, the CDC presses on with onerous guidance, pretending that these new Big Pharma injections carry the same risk/reward profile as the established, required childhood vaccinations that have been tested and used for decades. No wonder an NBC News poll from earlier this year found that a scant 37% of independent voters trust the CDC. For context on the marked decline in trust toward public health authorities: In the early days of the pandemic in the spring of 2020, a Pew Research survey found that 79% of Americans then had a very favorable view of the CDC.

Biden administration detained a record 2.3 million migrants at the US-Mexico border in 2022 - The administration of Democratic President Joe Biden apprehended more migrants in fiscal year 2022 than any other president in a single year on record, according to statistics published Friday by the US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) division of the Department of Homeland Security. Migrants from Colombia, front, wait to be processed by Border Patrol agents near the end of a border wall Tuesday, Aug. 23, 2022, near Yuma, Arizona. [AP Photo/Gregory Bull] In its annual statistical review of enforcement actions, dated October 21, CBP reported that more than 2.3 million migrants were apprehended at the US southern border during the 12 months ending September 30, 2022. This annual total represented an increase of 37 percent over the previous record of 1.7 million apprehensions set the year before by the CBP under Biden. Prior to 2021, the record of 1.6 million apprehensions was set in 2000, before the establishment of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and in the final year of the Clinton administration. Records for border patrol actions stretch back to 1960, when the Eisenhower administration apprehended just 21,022 individuals at the southwest border. In the inhumane bureaucratic language of US immigration policy, the total number of actions by CBP in 2022 was composed of Title 42 Expulsions, Title 8 Inadmissibles and Title 8 Apprehensions. Title 42 refers to a little-known section of US health law that permits the Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to “prohibit” individuals seeking asylum in the US from entering the country when “there is serious danger of the introduction of [a communicable] disease into the United States.” The Title 42 assault on the rights of migrants was implemented by the Trump administration during the third month of the coronavirus pandemic. It is noteworthy that Trump took this measure despite maintaining the position that the virus was “under control” and the “risk is low to average Americans” up to March 13, 2020 when he declared a national emergency. One week later, he used his emergency powers to attack the fundamental right to asylum through border expulsions under the provisions of section 265 of Title 42 to forcibly return migrants back to Mexico or their home countries such as Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador. According to the American Immigrant Council, “Despite the claim made by the [CDC] that this order was necessary from a public health perspective to protect the United States, public reporting has shown that the policy originated in the [DHS] and the Trump White House.” In the case of Title 8 actions, US law permits individuals to be characterized as inadmissible and deportable for a host of reasons such as having been convicted of a crime involving “moral turpitude related to property” or failure to appear “without reasonable cause” for an immigration proceeding. However, it is equally significant that the apprehensions of the Biden administration have far surpassed those the Trump White House, which made xenophobia and the assault on the rights of immigrant workers a central plank of its far-right domestic political agenda. Although Biden claims to oppose Title 42 actions against asylum seekers, the administration is aggressively complying with court orders to keep it in place as part of political accommodation with far-right Republicans.

Florida judge orders DeSantis to hand over migrant flights records - — A Florida judge on Tuesday found that Gov. Ron DeSantis’ office is not following the state’s public records law and ordered the administration to turn over records connected to the migrants flights from Texas to Martha’s Vineyard within the next 20 days. Circuit Judge J. Lee Marsh rebuffed arguments from the governor’s lawyers that they should be allowed to wait until Dec. 1 to hand over records, including phone and text logs belonging to James Uthmeier, the governor’s chief of staff who was involved in the operation to fly nearly 50 mostly-Venezuelan migrants to the vacation island. “The governor has been held accountable to his constitutional duty to provide public access to records,” said Michael Barfield, director of public access for Florida Center for Government Accountability, the open government group that brought the lawsuit. “The rule of law has prevailed.” The governor’s office did not immediately respond to a request for comment, but lawyers representing the Florida Center for Government Accountability said they anticipated there would be an appeal. DeSantis said he launched the migrant relocation program — which is being paid from interest earned off billions in Covid-19 relief aid provided to Florida by Congress — as part of an effort to draw attention to the immigration policies of President Joe Biden. But the flights were roundly condemned by Democrats, who called it a “political stunt” and akin to human trafficking. The Treasury Department’s watchdog is currently looking into whether DeSantis improperly used money related to Covid-19 relief dollars. Amid the widespread attention brought by the flights, numerous news organizations and other groups filed record requests in late September seeking information on how the flights were coordinated and whether it involved top officials with the DeSantis administration. Florida Center for Government Accountability filed a lawsuit earlier this month that claimed the failure to hand over records were an “unjustified delay.” The administration has since turned over some records, including redacted copies of waivers signed by the migrants who flew on the flights as well as information that showed the involvement of top DeSantis aides. The governor’s office pushed back against the lawsuit and said they had been inundated with record requests despite having a small staff. In a response filed last week, the administration also said it would eventually turn over all information no later than Dec. 1.

 Lindsey Graham says there are 'gonna be people jumping off bridges in San Francisco by the thousands' if Jim Jordan becomes chair of the House Judiciary Committee — Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina was met with roaring laughter from a crowd of Republican voters on Tuesday evening when he suggested that Republican Rep. Jim Jordan's ascension to chair of the House Judiciary Committee could result in a raft of suicides.Graham, campaigning in Ohio for GOP Senate candidate JD Vance, addressed a room full of party faithful at a dinner hosted by the local Republican party in Lima, a Western Ohio city that Jordan has long represented in Congress. Also in attendance were Republican Gov. Mike DeWine, Ohio GOP chairman Mike Paduchik, and a handful of other top Republican officials in the state.Vance, a former venture capitalist and the author of "Hillbilly Elegy," is facing a tougher than expected race against Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan, and has recently been campaigning with national Republican figures including former President Donald Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas."You got something really special here. This guy is going to change the Republican Party, change the Senate, all for the better," Graham said near the beginning of his address, referring to Vance. "But here's some words that really rattle the Democratic Party. What's the worst thing the Democratic Party wants to hear? Chairman Jim Jordan." Jordan, a leader of the party's right flank and currently the top Republican on the Judiciary Committee, has pledged to conduct investigations into the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Department of Justice if the GOP retakes the House.

Is Arizona’s Kari Lake the most ‘dangerous’ politician in America? - Kari Lake, the Arizona Republican candidate for governor and former Fox 10 Phoenix news anchor, seems to be everywhere lately. Earlier this month, the Atlantic declared her “Trumpism’s leading lady,” then spent more than 3,500 words explaining why. The Washington Post elaborated a few days later. “[Lake] has emerged as a Republican phenom by amplifying Donald Trump’s lie that the 2020 election was stolen,” read the subhead of its even longer profile. Last week, Axios went several steps further and reported that top Democratic strategists now believe Lake has the “potential to soar to a vice presidential spot or a post-Trump presidential candidacy.”

Watch: Hillary Clinton Claims "Right-Wing Extremists Already Have A Plan To Literally Steal The Next Presidential Election" - Two time failed presidential candidate and Russian collusion conspiracy theorist Hillary Clinton has a new warning for Americans. “Right-wing extremists” are planning to steal the 2024 election. Wonky wide-eyed Hillary made the assertion in a special video message to Indivisible’s Crush the Coup campaign. “I know we’re all focused on the 2022 midterm elections, and they are incredibly important, but we also have to look ahead because, you know what, our opponents certainly are,” Clinton says in the video.“Right-wing extremists already have a plan to literally steal the next presidential election, and they’re not making a secret of it,” she further claims.The “Right-wing controlled Supreme Court may be poised to rule on giving state legislatures the power to overturn presidential elections,” Clinton further suggests.“Just think, if that happens, the 2024 presidential election could be decided not by the popular vote or even the anachronistic Electoral College but by state legislatures, many of them Republican-controlled,” Clinton adds.

Pelosi attack rattles an already skittish campaign trail - The brutal assault on Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband Paul inside their San Francisco home early Friday morning reverberated across the campaign trail Saturday, with some Democratic campaigns acknowledging increased threats of violence and some Republican campaigns exercising extra caution in their rhetoric.In recent years, threats of violence against elected officials have increased, with some members of Congress and elected officials purchasing flack jackets, home security systems and other protective measures in recent months. Republican ads targeting Pelosi and other congressional figureshave proliferated nationally and trended more violent. In the Arizona GOP Senate primary earlier this year, for example, Jim Lamon aired an adshowing him shooting at actors pretending to be Pelosi, President Joe Biden and Democratic Senate candidate Mark Kelly.“Speaker Pelosi and her family in the space of 18 months have now been attacked at her place of work and at her home,” Massachusetts Rep. Jake Auchincloss told POLITICO in an interview Saturday. “It is a symptom of an unhealthy political culture. And GOP candidates, in particular, need to be mindful of their rhetoric on election night.”The Congressional Leadership Fund, a Kevin McCarthy-aligned super PAC, mentioned the speaker in at least 29 ads over the past week, according to Democratic strategists tracking the issue.“The attack is not an isolated event,” Barbara Walter, the political scientist and author of “How Civil Wars Start,” told POLITICO. “It’s part of a rising wave of domestic terror since 2008 — most by members of the radical right — who are targeting opposition leaders, minority groups and federal agents. This is their form of civil war and it is only likely to increase as our democracy remains weak and unstable, and our society deeply divided.”

Opinion | Bob Woodward: The Trump Tapes: 20 interviews that show why he is an unparalleled danger - In more than 50 years of reporting, I have never disclosed the raw interviews or full transcripts of my work. But after listening again to the 20 interviews I conducted with President Donald Trump during his last year as chief executive, I have decided to take the unusual step of releasing them. I was struck by how Trump pounded in my ears in a way the printed page cannot capture. In their totality, these interviews offer an unvarnished portrait of Trump. You hear Trump in his own words, in his own voice, during one of the most consequential years in American history: amid Trump’s first impeachment, the coronavirus pandemic and large racial justice protests. Much has been written about that period, including by me. But “The Trump Tapes,” my forthcoming audiobook of our interviews, is central to understanding Trump as he is poised to seek the presidency again. We spoke in person in the Oval Office and at Mar-a-Lago, as well as on the phone at varying hours of the day. You cannot separate Trump from his voice. In the summer of 2020, for example, when the pandemic had killed 140,000 people in the United States, Trump told me: “The virus came along. That’s not my fault. That’s China’s fault.” I asked him:

• Was there a moment in all of this, last two months, where you said to yourself, “Ah, this is the leadership test of a lifetime”?
• Trump: No.
• On the printed page his “no” reads flat, a simple declaration. Now listen to the audio of that exchange. This “no” is confident, dismissive, full of self-assurance. It leaves no doubt about the finality of his judgment. This “no” distances him from bearing responsibility. Sound has an extraordinary emotional power, an immediacy and authenticity. A listener is brought into the room. It is a completely different experience from reading Trump’s words or listening to snatches of his interviews on television or the internet. Trump’s voice magnifies his presence.
• Consider this from my 14th interview with Trump, on May 22, 2020.
• Trump: You’re probably going to screw me. Because, you know, that’s the way it goes. Look, [George W.] Bush sat with you for hours and you screwed him. But the difference was, I ain’t no Bush. The mockery in Trump’s voice does not come through as powerfully or as memorably on the printed page.

In the “The Trump Tapes,” I share my personal reporting journey through the eight hours of interviews. I provide commentary at more than 200 points in the audiobook, explicitly offering my own reactions, hesitations, conclusions, and explanations of my method of gathering and confirming information.When Trump came on the political scene in 2015, he was immediately a big presence, regularly making outrageous statements. He seized the attention of the media and gave regular interviews before and after he was elected president. But for someone who talked so much, he insulated himself from long and sustained questioning.In our extended conversations, I was able to press him for prolonged periods and with dozens of follow-up questions. Trump agreed that all of our interviews were on the record and could be recorded.“When did it become yes?” I asked about his decision to run for president. On his handling of the coronavirus, “What grade would you give yourself?” And about the presidency, “What have you learned about yourself?” In all, I asked him more than 600 questions.I am also releasing “The Trump Tapes” for the historical archive. The content of the interviews was comprehensively quoted in my 2020 book, “Rage,” and some of the audio of the most dramatic news released. But the full exchange amplifies an understanding of Trump and the unique concentration of power in the presidency. In these interviews, you hear Trump relishing the authority of the presidency and relying on his personal instincts as the basis for major decisions. It’s a self-focus that gets in the way of his ability to do the job. “I’m the Lone Ranger,” he said during our interview in March 2016.

Justice Dept. warns ruling in Trump ally’s suit could endanger U.S. diplomats - A judge’s ruling allowing a close ally of former President Donald Trump to obtain documents about Qatar’s activities in the U.S. could endanger the safety of American diplomats abroad, a Justice Department attorney argued to a federal appeals court Friday. That ruling, the Justice Department argued, could imperil U.S. diplomats by encouraging other countries to gain access to records held by security or building contractors for U.S. embassies. The warning about American diplomats overseas came as lawyers for former Republican National Committee deputy finance chair Elliott Broidy squared off with attorneys for Qatar in a suit Broidy filed to uncover details of how a large trove of his emails leaked to news outlets in 2018 as part of what he has claimed was an illegal “hack and smear” campaign. U.S. District Court Judge Dabney Friedrich ruled in June that Qatar could not invoke the Vienna Convention to prevent the Persian Gulf state’s former representatives in the U.S. from having to turn over sensitive documents to Broidy’s lawyers as part of the ongoing litigation. “One critical concern to the United States is that the district court’s categorical error poses a serious threat to how the United States operates its embassies overseas, in terms of reciprocity,” DOJ lawyer Martin Totaro told a D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals panel hearing Qatar’s appeal seeking confidentiality for the records. Totaro said the U.S. “not infrequently” relies on contractors for embassy construction and security and the specter of foreigners getting access to those records in litigation overseas is alarming. “As the government reads the district court’s order, none of the very important documents that are provided to those individuals, including, for example, like blueprints of an embassy, would be protected,” the Justice Department attorney told the panel of judges.

Hope Hicks to appear before Jan. 6 panel - Former White House aide Hope Hicks is scheduled to appear before the House committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol, according to a source familiar with the situation. Hicks, who served as a counselor to former President Trump during her second stint in the White House, left the administration shortly after Jan. 6. Hicks, who worked for the Trump organization and the Trump campaign before working at the White House, has been considered one of the former president’s closest advisers. Her appearance shows that the committee continues to interview those close to Trump in the days surrounding Jan. 6. But it’s unclear how helpful Hicks will be. During a prior interview with the House Judiciary Committee in 2019, she refused to answer numerous questions about her time in the White House.

Son of Confederate flag-wielding rioter sentenced to 24 months for Jan. 6 breach - One of the first rioters to breach the Capitol on Jan. 6 has been sentenced to 24 months in prison for barging through a shattered window and helping chase a police officer near the Senate chamber. Hunter Seefried watched as another rioter — Proud Boy Dominic Pezzola — used a police shield to shatter a Capitol window, triggering the breach of the building. Seefried then helped clear glass from the window frame and entered the building. He was accompanied by his father, Kevin Seefried, who infamously wielded a Confederate flag inside the Capitol. The elder Seefried, who is due to be sentenced in January, was granted permission to attend his son’s sentencing but didn’t appear to be in the courtroom. Hunter Seefried’s mother, girlfriend, brother and two family friends were in attendance. U.S. District Court Judge Trevor McFadden described Seefried’s conduct as a “flagrant affront to our system of government” that was made more “appalling” by his participation in the chase of U.S. Capitol Police Officer Eugene Goodman through the Senate halls. The sentencing is the latest effort by judges in the U.S. District Court of Washington D.C. to figure out punishment for crimes that defy comparison to any others in U.S. history. The Justice Department has called its investigation of that day’s events as the largest investigation in U.S. history and have charged more than 850 people with crimes ranging from simple trespassing to seditious conspiracy. Judges have typically reserved their harshest penalties for rioters who pre-planned efforts to disrupt the transfer of power from Donald Trump to Joe Biden, sometimes as part of groups like the far right Proud Boys or Oath Keepers. They’ve also delivered the stiffest sentences to those who engaged in violence against police, 140 of whom were injured defending the Capitol. Hundreds of rioters have pleaded guilty to their roles in the events of Jan. 6, and dozens more have been convicted by juries, who have delivered guilty verdicts on every charge they’ve received so far. McFadden has dealt the government its only Jan. 6 trial defeats, acquitting a small number of rioters on several charges in bench trials, in which the defendants waive their right to a jury. However, he has also found several rioters guilty of felony offenses and doled out significant terms of incarceration in some of those cases. McFadden found both Seefrieds guilty after a bench trial in June. Though prosecutors had asked that the younger Seefriend receive 64 months in prison, McFadden described their recommendation as “overly harsh” given that Seefriend is not charged with committing any violence. He also appeared swayed by Seefried’s tearful statement of remorse, in which he described Jan. 6 as a “stain” on his character and on the country.

The Firings Begin: Twitter CEO, CFO, & Top Censor Escorted Out --As the bell tolls for the end of the first chapter of Twitter's life as a deep state narrative-enabling machine, the firings have begun with Musk becoming 'Chief Twit'. Just minutes after the world's richest man has reportedly closed the $44 billion deal, The NYTimes reports that, according to sources that declined to be identified, the Twitter executives who were fired include:

• Parag Agrawal, Twitter’s chief executive,
• Ned Segal, the chief financial officer,
• Sean Edgett, the general counsel, and
• Vijaya Gadde, the top legal and policy executive, (or censorship czar).

We suspect she was first on the list given this tweet from Musk earlier in the year... As a reminder, having been with Twitter since 2011, Gadde was the key executive in charge of 'trust and safety, legal and public policy functions' - described by Politico as the company's "moral authority." Gadde holds one of the most controversial positions at Twitter: Her teams decide how to moderate content. That’s made her a target of right-wing criticism, particularly when Twitter blocked the distribution of a New York Post article about President Joe Biden’s son, Hunter Biden, in 2020. She faced a renewed wave of criticism after multiple reports confirmed she was behind the decision to ban Trump from Twitter. -PoliticoIn other words, Gadde is likely the exec who signed off on ZeroHedge's February 2020 ban for speculating that Covid-19 may have emerged from a Wuhan Lab, and President Trump's January 2021 ban in connection with the capitol riot.At least one of the executives who was fired was escorted out of Twitter’s office, NYTimes reports.Please do not feel too bad for these poor, dejected executives, as Insider reports, through "change in control" provisions in employment contracts for top leadership, they will receive a certain amount of severance and an automatic acceleration of their shares, so long as Musk fires them.The provisions are disclosed in regulatory filings.

• Agrawal is set to receive the largest payout of $38.7 million, due largely to the entirety of his shares vesting upon his firing.
• Segal is set to receive a $25.4 million payout for getting fired.
• Gadde will leave with $12.5 million.

As we detailed earlier, over 1,100 employees have left Twitter since Musk announced his intention to buy the company back in January, with almost a third going to Google or Meta.

Musk moves quickly to remodel Twitter Elon Musk wasted no time beginning to remodel Twitter after closing his deal to acquire the company Thursday night, quickly cutting key staff, doubling down on plans to lift lifelong bans and previewing plans for a council to determine content decisions. The changes he’s made so far confirmed suspicions critics had about the direction the billionaire space and auto executive, known for being a Twitter troll himself, would take the company in, and are adding fuel to the chorus of critics worried Musk’s reign at Twitter will allow misinformation and hate speech to thrive on the platform.Musk’s decision to take Twitter private will also allow him to transform the platform — including its content moderation policies and financial priorities — with less oversight from regulators and without having to publicly disclose updates every few months to show how the company is performing. Musk made a nod to changes to come at Twitter in his typical style shortly after taking control of the company, tweeting Thursday night “the bird is free.” Among the first changes he made were immediate cuts of top Twitter executives. Musk reportedly fired CEO Parag Agrawal, Chief Financial Officer Ned Segal and chief legal counsel Vijaya Gadde, letting them go with a hefty payout of around $187 million, CNN reported.Paul Barrett, deputy director of the NYU Stern Center for Business and Human Rights, said he is most concerned about Musk’s decision to fire Gadde, a senior executive Barrett said was “trying, however imperfectly, to keep the platform from spreading even more harmful content than it does.” Barrett said he is concerned that “in the name of ‘free speech’” Musk is going to “turn back the clock” to make Twitter into a “more potent engine of hatred, divisiveness, and misinformation about elections, public health policy, and international affairs.” “This is not going to be pretty,” Barrett said. Musk tweeted Friday afternoon that Twitter will be forming a “content moderation council with widely diverse viewpoints.” He said that “no major content decisions or account reinstatements will happen before that council convenes.”But Bloomberg reported, citing an anonymous source, that Musk doesn’t believe in lifelong bans. Musk previously said he would reverse the permanent ban Twitter imposed on former President Trump’s account last year.It is not clear yet to what extent the proposed council will factor into decisions of that kind. For example, Meta’s Oversight Board is able to make binding decisions regarding content on the site but the tech giant is able to choose whether to accept its Oversight Board’s recommendations on policy changes. Musk hinted that more changes to the status of accounts banned under previous leadership are to come in the early days of his leadership. In response to a right-wing influencer who said they were still “shadowbanned” after one day of Musk owning the site, the new self-described “Chief Twit” said he “will be digging in more today.”

'I think it’s an earthquake': The political world reckons with a Musk-owned Twitter - “I think it’s an earthquake,” said Abhi Rahman, a Democratic strategist, inviting Trump if he runs for president again in 2024 to “spread any lies he wants about the election, voting machines, etc.” Said one adviser to major Democratic donors, bluntly: “Huge and terrible ramifications.” On Friday afternoon, Musk tweeted that he’ll be forming a “content moderation council” — stating “no major content decisions or account reinstatements will happen before that council convenes.” As of now, Trump isn’t back on the platform. Twitter didn’t respond when asked if Trump had been invited back on, and Trump’s personal account (@realDonaldTrump) is still suspended as of Friday afternoon. In a post on his own platform, Truth Social, he wrote, “I am very happy that Twitter is now in sane hands.” He told Fox News on Friday, “I am staying on Truth. I like it better, I like the way it works, I like Elon, but I’m staying on Truth.”

Why The Censors Fear Information Freedom --This is the age of censorship, pushed by government and interests and enacted by wholly captured Big Tech firms. If you doubt it, look through the hundred or so pages of emails dug up in court discovery between government agencies and social media firms during the COVID crisis. The relationship is warm and wholly normalized. If, for three years, you had a sense that you were being fed a canned line through all major media platforms, that the science was being filtered, that the talking heads were merely telling you what they were told to tell you, that dissent was being crushed, you aren’t wrong. This is exactly what was happening. COVID was a major test case, but the model has been rolled out to cover a whole range of other topics, including election fraud, vaccine safety, and climate change. If an issue is important to a powerful interest and prevailing government priorities, the censors are tasked to get to work. The platform you have today could be gone tomorrow, no matter how much of a personal investment you have in it. In fact, large accounts seem more likely to be attacked than small ones. We now know about a series of emails between former FDA commissioner and Pfizer board member Scott Gottlieb (now at the American Enterprise Institute) and tech firms concerning the writings of Alex Berenson. Berenson was an early critic of COVID policies and among the first to sound the alarm about vaccine efficacy and safety. Gottlieb targeted Berenson by name and told Twitter and others precisely what needed to happen as soon as possible. Berenson had to be silenced.It’s one case of hundreds, thousands, and countless other cases. People write to me daily to report that LinkedIn has taken down a message without warning, that Facebook has slapped a warning on a post, that Twitter has taken down their account, or that Google’s YouTube has dinged or deleted their account.More intense forms are happening in web hosting (Amazon can throw you off) and even finance. PayPal has cut many individuals and institutions from access and even dared floating a fee for “misinformation”—a word we now understand to mean opinions not approved by ruling class censors. If this practice is rolled out further—and there’s no question that many intend to do so—we could find ourselves surrounded in a Chinese-like social credit system.This raises serious legal issues which are now being litigated across the country. Governments can’t simply privatize their censorious ambitions to the private sector and pretend that is entirely consistent with the First Amendment. The freedom of speech is a general principle that prohibits government from muscling speech platforms to comply with their edicts. And this is true even with private entities who sign up willingly for the job like earnest members of the Red Guard.

 She clicked sign-in with Google. Strangers got access to all her files. - You’ve probably seen it on lots of apps and websites: buttons urging you to sign in with your Google or Facebook account. Sometimes it’s to let you share files, photos or emails. Other times it’s to use Google or Facebook as a quick way to log in somewhere new.My rule of thumb is to just say no.There are too many ways using these buttons can leak personal information or help Big Tech track you. There are some exceptions when it’s useful — but you might be surprised, and a little regretful, if you saw how many random sites have access to your Google or Facebook data. (Below, I’ll show you how to check and revoke access.)What could go wrong? This month, Facebook warned a million Facebook users their accounts might have been compromised by 400 malicious apps that were designed to trick them into handing over their Facebook log-in information. Criminals were making fake log-in buttons.And I’d like to share a doozy of a cautionary tale: A Washington Post reader wrote to me recently about a Google log-in button on a job portal called iCIMS designed — at least in theory — to help people upload their résumés. Turns out, using it inadvertently grants the site access to your entire collection of digital files.You might not know the name iCIMS, but many people applying for jobs do: It has 2.4 million users and is used for recruitment by companies including Microsoft, Uber, UPS, Target and IBM. The iCIMS job application site offered The Post reader’s daughter the ability to upload her résumé directly from Google Drive, the online storage service. Sounds convenient, but when she clicked on the Google Drive button, a message popped up: “This will allow iCIMS to: See and download all your Google Drive files.”

Bitcoin miner Core Scientific issues bankruptcy warning and the stock is down 97% for the year - Core Scientific, one of the largest publicly traded crypto mining companies in the U.S., raised the possibility of bankruptcy in a statement filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The company also disclosed that it will not make its debt payments coming due in late Oct. and early Nov.Core's stock was down as much as 77% on Thursday following the filing.Since listing on the Nasdaq through a special purpose acquisition company, or SPAC, Core's market capitalization has fallen to $90 million, down from a $4.3 billion valuation in July 2021 when the company went public. The stock is now down more than 97% this year. In the event of a bankruptcy, Core says that holders of its common stock could suffer "a total loss of their investment."Core Scientific mines for proof-of-work cryptocurrencies like bitcoin. The process involves powering data centers across the country, packed with highly specialized computers that crunch math equations in order to validate transactions and simultaneously create new tokens. The process requires expensive equipment, some technical know-how, and a lot of electricity.Core, which primarily mints bitcoin, has seen the price of the token drop from an all-time high above $69,000 in Nov. 2021, to around $20,500. That 70% loss in value, paired with greater competition among miners — and increased energy prices — have compressed its profit margins.The crypto miner said its "operating performance and liquidity have been severely impacted by the prolonged decrease in the price of bitcoin, the increase in electricity costs," as well as "the increase in the global bitcoin network hash rate" — a term used to describe the computing power of all miners in the bitcoin network.The filing also blamed "litigation with Celsius Networks LLC and its affiliates" for Core's financial struggles. Celsius was once one of the biggest names in the crypto lending space, offering annual returns of nearly 19%, until it filed for bankruptcy this spring.Despite selling nearly all its bitcoin in June, the company is down to $26.6 million in cash. Though Core self-mines bitcoin to re-stock its own coffers ($770,000 worth of bitcoin on Wednesday), the company still warns it could run out altogether by the end of the year, if not before.

 New SEC Rule Will See Accounting Errors Result In Loss Of Executive Bonuses - A new SEC rule is being rolled out wherein executives of firms with costly accounting errors could find their personal bonuses on the hook. The Securities and Exchange Commission approved the rule on Wednesday, the Wall Street Journal reported. The rule, "required by the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act to discourage fraud and accounting mischief", was approved by a 3-2 vote of commissioners at a meeting this week. Democrats approved the rule while both Republicans dissented, the report says. The rule had been initially proposed in 2015, but was then shuttered under the Trump administration. Democratic SEC Chairman Gary Gensler has said that it will "strengthen investor confidence in corporate reporting, as well as the accountability of managers," the Journal reported.Gensler stated: “Corporate executives often are paid based on the performance of the companies they lead, with factors that may include revenue and business profits."He continued: "If the company makes a material error in preparing the financial statements required under the securities laws, however, then an executive may receive compensation for reaching a milestone that in reality was never hit.”The original rule used to apply only to firms that found major errors and had to restate financials. The newer version of the rule is broader and can still affect executive bonuses even with smaller, recent accounting errors. “This may result in salary increases, rather than compensation mechanisms tied to financial-reporting measures,” Republican SEC Commissioner Mark Uyeda said. He also argued that the rule “may ultimately weaken alignment of interests between shareholders and management.”The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Business Roundtable along with GOP lawmakers and some SEC commissioners had spoken out against the rule. Not unlike some Sarbanes-Oxley attestations, firms will now have to include check boxes on the front page of their annual reports to confirm that an error correction or clawback analysis had been conducted before filings are submitted.

Wall Street bankers see darker economic outlook, political risks Top Wall Street bankers offered up a litany of warnings that recession in the U.S. and Europe is increasingly likely with geopolitical risks further darkening the horizon into 2023. Economic conditions are going to "tighten meaningfully from here," Goldman Sachs Group Chief Executive David Solomon said at Saudi Arabia's Future Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh. "The Fed has made it clear they're going to raise to the path target of 4.5% to 4.75% and then pause given there's a lag effect," he said. "But if they don't see real changes in behavior — labor is still very very tight, for example — my guess is they'll go further." Wall Street bankers have descended on Riyadh, despite deep political frictions in U.S.-Saudi relations over oil. In a slowing global economy, the kingdom is the fastest growing in the Group of 20 thanks to its oil wealth. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is sitting on his first budget surplus since coming to power, allowing him to channel billions of dollars into stock markets and assets globally, and to plan some of the world's most ambitious construction projects. But as the bankers made clear, the kingdom is a rare economy in rude health. Many economists see the U.S. in a recession in the next 12 months as the Federal Reserve's steep interest rate hikes take a further toll on demand. In Europe, the energy crisis sparked by Russia's invasion of Ukraine has led to an unprecedented surge in inflation across the continent, and governments are spending billions of euros to help consumers and businesses as their economies slip toward recession. "There's no question that 2023 looks a little dicey," Franck Petitgas, head of international operations at Morgan Stanley, said at the conference. "It's pretty safe to say that the U.S. is probably going to have some sort of landing that's not super soft."

Custodia Bank's master account lawsuit against Fed likely to advance -- The Federal Reserve System could find itself in unfamiliar territory: having to defend its process for granting master accounts at trial. Judge Scott Skavdahl of the U.S. District Court for the District of Wyoming said he likely would not dismiss the lawsuit Custodia Bank filed against the Fed board and Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City earlier this year. Following oral arguments from all three parties on Friday afternoon, Skavdahl declined to issue a ruling from the bench on the Fed's motion to dismiss the lawsuit. He noted that the scope of the suit might be adjusted but the matter would likely survive "in some form." "I understand there's a lot of very competent and extremely bright and far more learned and skilled finance, banking and regulatory individuals in the world and they're looking at this, but I just don't see why we are looking at a length of time that's equal to the gestation of an elephant to figure this out with all those bright people," Skavdahl said. Skavdahl said he would review the documents submitted by the parties and have a final decision rendered "as quickly as possible" so both sides could move forward accordingly. Custodia, a Wyoming-chartered special-purpose depository, sued the Fed in June, hoping to compel it to make a decision on the company's roughly two-year-old application for a master account with the Kansas City Fed. In August, the Fed filed a motion to dismiss the case on the grounds that Custodia's business model — which aims to provide crypto-custody and digital-asset payment services — was the "first of its kind," and therefore requires more time for the Kansas City Fed to review. Should Custodia's suit against the Fed go to trial, it would be the first master account litigation to go that far. Previous challenges filed by Fourth Corner Credit Union, a Colorado-based credit union serving the state's legal cannabis industry, and The Narrow Bank, a Connecticut bank that sought to hold all of its customers' deposits in risk-free reserves at the Fed, were dismissed.

 BankThink: A reckoning could be coming over Fed's payments to banks | American Banker - Congress will do nothing about anything until the midterm election seals each member's fate. Thus, I expect nothing to come from Congress in 2022 responding to the Federal Reserve's sudden turn for the financial worst. However, when Congress again comes to thinking about the Fed, it will not go unnoticed, despite all the acrimony about monetary-policy miscues, that taxpayers are in some ways now far more clearly subsidizing payments to banks, money market funds and other financial companies holding deposits with the central bank or using its standing market windows. The last time Congress thought about interest rates on reserves (IRR), more than a few members wanted it back. Given that these payments are now at what seems direct taxpayer cost, they'll have a lot of new friends in the next Congress unless someone quickly shows why these interest payments are an artifact of Fed confusion, not big-bank malfeasance. Yes, I know — the $2.9 billion loss the Fed reported in terms of Treasury remittances for the first week of October isn't a direct taxpayer subsidy any more than the hundreds of billions the Fed has sent to the Treasury since 2008 are funds directly taken from taxpayers. The ups and downs of Fed remittances are the result of balance-sheet operations consisting of liabilities owed to financial companies and earnings on assets in the Fed's portfolio. Neither is direct spending nor revenue raising. This is, though, a technicality for members of Congress who have become used to having the Fed — and for that matter, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — readily at hand to smooth over what would otherwise be considerable awkwardness in reckoning with just how big the federal deficit actually is. The Fed shortfall cited above is a hard-dollar drop in Fed remittances to Treasury versus $170.4 billion in FY21. It doesn't reflect the Fed's mark-to-market unrealized loss on its huge portfolio of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, estimated by Bill Nelson at the Bank Policy Institute as $458 billion. These losses are material and then some, but — unlike direct losses due to the difference between earnings on assets and the cost of liabilities — they don't count for much of anything fiscal unless or until the Fed is forced to sell assets or recognize that it will never have earnings sufficient to absorb the reckoning it may now defer. As long as the Fed can hold this fictional financial fort — and that's likely a very, very long time — only its remittance shortfalls matter to a Congress forced to make them up with new revenue sources and its mark-to-market losses matter only to a green eyeshade or two in terms of actual bottom-line impact. This is not only because Congress has to come up with new money if prior deficit assumptions counted on Fed remittances, as indeed they did. What matters even more is that the Fed will be seen to be sending big money to big financial companies not out of so abundant a payment to Treasury that it didn't much matter, but now as a deficit to taxpayers someone else has to make up. Even when IRR was paid out of remittances with loads of room to spare, members of Congress from both parties so strongly resented these payments that we were asked to write a paper on why interest was paid on what were then called excess reserves. In that paper, we successfully showed that banks weren't exploiting the Fed by earning an easy buck on IRR rather than investing deposits in the loans essential for economic growth. Much of what we said then is true now, but the overnight reverse repo program (ON RRP) complicates an analysis of the equity and subsidy value of Fed interest payments to mostly giant financial-services companies. The reason here is that this window is not a longstanding artifact of Fed operations like IRR — controversial as that still was. Instead, these are standing facilities of $2 trillion or even more that exist for two politically hot-button purposes.

Banks don't love the FDIC's revised proposal for appeals process — The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. didn't assuage banks' concerns when it suggested that an ombudsman oversee the agency's appeals process for banks. Bank groups were irate earlier this year when acting FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg disbanded an internal court for banks to challenge supervisory findings, and instead reinstated a board-controlled committee. The board-controlled committee, or the Supervision Appeals Review Committee, is less transparent than the industry would like, and more importantly, would still ultimately answer to the FDIC's board. Banks preferred the short-lived prior arrangement, where the Office of Supervisory Appeals, staffed by private individuals, including those coming from the private sector as well as former examiners, would oversee disputes. That project, started under former Chairman Jelena McWilliams, was barely staffed and functional before the board under Gruenberg voted to disband it. Last week, the FDIC made a few important tweaks to its appeals process that nodded to the critical comments the agency received from banks. The board voted on proposed amendments to the appeals guidelines that would expand and clarify the role of the agency's ombudsman, adding them to the Supervision Appeals Review Committee as a nonvoting member that would monitor the supervision process after a bank submits an appeal. The proposed guidelines would also require that materials considered by the committee be shared with both parties to the appeal, and would allow banks to request a stay of supervisory determination while an appeal is pending. But banks aren't completely happy with those changes as a compromise, particularly as the reliance of the FDIC on their ombudsman. Jenna Burke, senior vice president and senior regulatory counsel for the Independent Community Bankers of America, said in an interview that the expansion of the role of the ombudsman is "still insufficient to address our concerns about lack of independence in the process." "The fact is, the ombudsman is still an employee of the FDIC and reports directly to the Office of the FDIC Chairman," she said.

Climate politics at heart of state probes into big banks A cadre of state attorneys general have launched probes into the environmental, social and governance policies of the country's large banks, giving rise to concerns about state regulatory regimes ultimately being divided along red and blue political lines. Led by Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt, 19 mostly Republican-controlled states said last week they're investigating the ESG practices of Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo. The move is seen by banks and outside advocacy groups — even some that have been critical of the financial industry for not doing enough to reduce its carbon footprint — as an effort by government officials to block certain banks from certain activities for political reasons. "Fundamentally, it's an intimidation tactic," said Yevgeny Shrago, policy director for Public Citizen's Climate Program. "It's intended by these AGs to push these banks out of their commitments. In that sense, it's really intended to force these banks back into climate denial, to not taking climate change seriously." Each state attorney's office issued a civil investigative demand — effectively an executive subpoena — to each of the six banks, asking them to detail all of their affiliations with various climate- and ESG-related groups and pacts, as well as their related internal policies. Many of the inquiries were focused on the United Nations' Net-Zero Bank Alliance, of which all six banks are members. "We are leading a coalition investigating banks for ceding authority to the U.N., which will only result in the killing of American companies that don't subscribe to the woke climate agenda," says Eric Schmitt, attorney general of Missouri, one of 19 states seeking information about big banks' ESG practices. Investigators are also asking the banks to explain their reasons for participating in climate pledges and their progress toward adhering to them to date. They are also seeking information about the groups within each bank that handle climate matters and the individual employees involved.

 'Tax the rich': Climate protesters target JPMorgan's NYC office in week of action - Protesters blocked traffic around JPMorgan Chase's New York City offices Friday morning, calling for Gov. Kathy Hochul to use a tax on the wealthy to fund climate measures. Dozens of protesters with a large banner reading "Occupy Park Avenue" and placards targeting the fossil fuel industry and JPMorgan blocked an intersection just across the street from 270 Park Ave., where the bank is building its new headquarters. The crowd chanted, "Arrest Jamie Dimon," referring to the bank's chief executive, and at least two protesters were led off in handcuffs by police."Tax the rich for a green new deal," said one sign. A spokesperson for JPMorgan declined to comment.The events are part of Occupy Park Avenue, a five-day protest in New York pegged to the 10th anniversary of Hurricane Sandy, which led to 43 deaths and caused an estimated $19 billion in damages.The protests will culminate in a mass march on Saturday. New York Communities for Change, Extinction Rebellion and other groups are organizing the events. Activists have been targeting financial companies and officials this week. On Oct. 24, activists interrupted U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz's interview on the talk show "The View." On Oct. 26, protesters gathered at BlackRock's Manhattan headquarters.

 JPMorgan set to hire 20 more bankers in Saudi Arabia expansion - JPMorgan Chase is set to add another 20 people to its Saudi Arabia operation by the end of the year as it looks to capitalize on one of the world's few bright spots for equity capital markets, despite simmering political tensions between U.S. President Biden and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman. The U.S. bank will have doubled the size of its Saudi operations by the end of the year, compared with 2016, Bader Alamoudi, JPMorgan's senior country officer, said in an interview. The bank will be hiring across investment bankers, local custody, client services and back-office staff, he said. "We see a very strong pipeline of deals coming up across M&A and IPOs, there's still a lot of interest from local companies to list and from foreign investors looking to get exposure to the Saudi market," he said. Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan's chairman and chief executive, is due to arrive in Riyadh later this week to attend Saudi Arabia's flagship investment conference, dubbed Davos in the Desert. His visit comes at a time when political relations between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia are at one of their lowest ebbs. Biden has threatened Saudi Arabia with unspecified "consequences" for a decision made by oil producer group OPEC+ to cut production in the face of U.S. opposition to the move. OPEC+ members, which also include Russia, have said the cut was in response to a weakening crude demand outlook, and was not a political decision. U.S. bankers have significantly expanded their presence in Saudi Arabia since Prince Mohammed launched a plan to overhaul the kingdom's economy by opening up to foreign investors, selling off state-owned assets, and seeking to build one of the world's largest sovereign wealth funds. That's helped make Saudi Arabia a hot spot for initial public offerings even as deals dry up in other parts of the world. "Competition has definitely increased but we've been here for the long term and will continue to invest to serve our clients and bring new products and offerings to Saudi Arabia," Alamoudi said.

CFPB chief previews next steps in open-banking rulemaking The director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau unveiled a timetable for writing a regulation that will likely force banks to give third-party apps and other financial institutions access to consumer financial data at consumers' behest. The upcoming rule from the bureau, announced in a speech on Tuesday by the director, Rohit Chopra, is part of a broader regulatory effort to establish a regime of open banking, broadly defined as giving consumers access to and control over their financial information. "While not explicitly an open banking or open finance rule, the rule will move us closer to it, by obligating financial institutions to share consumer data upon consumer request, empowering people to break up with banks that provide bad service, and unleashing more market competition," Chopra said in the speech. Chopra said in the speech that the CFPB would propose the open-banking regulation in 2023 and that he hopes to finalize it in 2024. The process will kick off this week, when he said the CFPB will release a discussion guide for small businesses to consider as they provide the bureau some of the first formal comments on the matter. The Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2010 required the CFPB to create a rule that requires financial institutions to give consumers access to their account data, but it took until 2020 for the CFPB to address the matter with a preliminary rulemaking process. Chopra's announcement this week continues that rulemaking process and gives it a timeline for completion.

Elizabeth Warren sharpens attack against Zelle system - U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren is ratcheting up her campaign against the popular peer-to-peer payments system Zelle. Warren on Wednesday sent a letter to Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra, calling for expanded regulations after she collected private data on rising fraud rates on Zelle from some of the country's largest banks. Warren, a Democrat from Massachusetts, offered to share the data with Chopra, according to the letter obtained by Bloomberg. "As the CFPB considers whether to take action on this topic, the findings of my investigation reveal that the agency must strengthen consumer protections on peer-to-peer platforms like Zelle," Warren said. Earlier this month, Warren released a report based on data from Bank of America, Truist Financial, PNC Financial Services Group and U.S. Bancorp that showed the value of scam and fraud claims more than doubled to $236 million in 2021. Those banks and three other lenders — JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Capital One Financial Corp. — jointly own Early Warning Services LLC, which operates Zelle. Early Warning has disputed the report's findings, noting tens of millions of consumers use Zelle every day and the company has said more than 99.9% of payments are sent across its network without any report of fraud or scams. "Any external analysis done is incomplete and does not reflect the efforts and data reported by more than 1,700 financial institutions on the Zelle network," Early Warning said in a statement this month.

CFPB lays out possible counter to Fifth Circuit funding decision -An appeals court ruling last week on the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's funding structure is already threatening the agency's ability to enforce its rules.One day after the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit found the CFPB's funding structure to be unconstitutional, TransUnion used the decision to bolster its request for a dismissal of charges leveled by the bureau.Earlier this year, the CFPB accused TransUnion of violating the terms of a 2017 consent order, in which the credit rating firm agreed to, among other things, stop misleading customers about its terms of use. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau hinted at its legal strategy for appealing an appeals court decision that found its funding mechanism unconstitutional. TransUnion argued that the CFPB used unappropriated funds to negotiate and prepare the consent order, which was agreed to after an investigation into deceptive practices around marketing and selling of credit scores, credit reports and credit-monitoring products to consumers. In its motion for dismissal, TransUnion also argued the CFPB should not be able to use unlawful funds to prosecute the case. TransUnion did not respond to a request for comment Wednesday.The CFPB filed a response to TransUnion's motion in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois Eastern Division on Tuesday, laying out what could be the groundwork for an appeal of the Fifth Circuit decision in Community Financial Services Association of America v. CFPB. In that case, the court found that the CFPB's funding violates the Constitution's structural separation of powers because it comes directly from the Federal Reserve rather than congressional appropriation.

BankThink: Those seeking to bring down the CFPB should be careful what they wish for | American Banker - It's not every day that a federal regulatory agency is declared unconstitutional. Yet that's just what the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals did this month regarding the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, holding that the bureau's funding mechanism is illegal. The bureau has long been a bugbear to parts of the financial services industry. But in their haste to tear down the CFPB, the agency's opponents have failed to consider the chaos victory might bring. If the CFPB's funding is unconstitutional it throws into doubt the constitutionality of all other self-funded federal bank regulators, including the Federal Reserve Board. Moreover, if the CFPB is unconstitutional, its myriad regulations, upon which the economy depends, are all invalid, creating a compliance nightmare for all manner of financial services businesses. The Fifth Circuit struck down the CFPB's funding mechanism because the bureau is not funded through congressional appropriations from the Treasury. Instead, the CFPB draws annually a capped amount from the Federal Reserve System.This arrangement is only natural because the CFPB is an independent bureau within the Fed system. The revenues of the Fed system are almost entirely the revenues of the twelve private regional Federal Reserve banks. Congress has given the CFPB a right of assessment on the reserve banks, just as it has given the Federal Reserve Board — another federal regulatory agency with rulemaking and enforcement power — the same right of assessment on the same private Federal Reserve banks.Similar self-funding arrangements exist for other financial regulators, including the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., the Federal Housing Finance Agency, the National Credit Union Administration and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.The Fifth Circuit's beef with the bureau's funding arrangement is that the Appropriations Clause provides that "No Money shall be drawn from the Treasury, but in Consequence of Appropriations made by Law." The Fifth Circuit found the combination of the bureau's executive powers — rulemaking and enforcement — plus unappropriated funding to violate the separation-of- powers principle because, as James Madison once put it, "[t]he purse & the sword ought never to get in the same hands."As a textual matter, it is unclear why the CFPB's funding violates the Appropriations Clause, which by its own terms applies only to the spending of Treasury funds. Federal Reserve System funds are not Treasury funds. Be that as it may, the more troubling problem with the Fifth Circuit's reasoning is that there's no principled way to distinguish the CFPB's unappropriated funding mechanism from that of the Fed or other self-funded financial regulators.The Fifth Circuit claimed that the CFPB is different because the other self-funded agencies do not "wield enforcement and regulatory authority remotely comparable to the authority the [bureau] may exercise throughout the economy."Come again? The Fifth Circuit is claiming the CFPB wields broader regulatory authority than the Fed, a full-fledged bank regulator that engages in rulemaking and enforcement, operates the payment systems that are the backbone of the economy, and regulates monetary policy and employment. This is what is known as "motivated reasoning."There is no escaping the logic of its appropriations clause argument: If the CFPB is unconstitutional, so too is the Fed and other self-funded federal financial regulators. Consider the havoc that will unleash on the economy if there is no agency allowed to regulate the U.S. banking or housing finance system or undertake monetary policy. There's no way to strike down the CFPB's funding without destroying the entire U.S. bank regulatory system.

 CFPB targets 'junk' fees with White House backing - — The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau issued guidance about "junk fees" Wednesday, warning banks that surprise overdraft charges that customers cannot reasonably anticipate or avoid likely violate the Consumer Financial Protection Act. President Biden and CFPB Director Rohit Chopra promoted the guidance in a White House briefing, giving political weight to consumer financial issues just ahead of the 2022 midterms as voters grow increasingly concerned about inflation. "Americans are willing to pay for legitimate services at a competitive price, but are frustrated when they are hit with junk fees for unexpected or unwanted services that have no value to them," Chopra said. Biden said that he "appreciates the frustration" of Americans when it comes to high prices at the gas pump and on shelves, and that the CFPB's actions will "put more money in the pockets of middle-income and working-class Americans." "One of the things that I think frustrates the American people is they know the world is in a bit of disarray — they know that Putin's war has imposed an awful lot of strains on Europe and the rest of the world and the United States, everything from him blocking grain shipments and oil," Biden said. "And they want to know, what are we doing. And, there's a lot going on that we're doing, and it adds up."The move is the latest effort by the bureau to crack down on what it considers unfair fees levied against bank customers. The term "junk fees" is a nebulous designation that banks have decried as very vague. The White House's presence underlines support for the agency during a tumultuous time for the CFPB after a federal court just a week ago found its funding mechanism unconstitutional.

 Consumer watchdog's new guidance aims to end 'junk fees' at banks - The nation's consumer watchdog is upping its efforts to clamp down on so-called junk fees that some banks charge consumers. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau on Wednesday said it issued guidance to end two particular bank fees that can catch customers by surprise — and are "likely unfair and unlawful," according to the agency's release. The move is the latest in the CFPB's ongoing initiative to scrutinize junk fees, which generally are fees that are unexpected or excessive. "Americans are willing to pay for legitimate services at a competitive price, but are frustrated when they are hit with junk fees for unexpected or unwanted services that have no value to them," said CFPB Director Rohit Chopra. During a press briefing Wednesday morning, President Joe Biden said the administration's actions on junk fees — including those from banks as well as hotels, airlines and other entities — would "immediately start saving Americans collectively billions of dollars in unfair fees" and hold corporations accountable."My administration is also making it clear surprise overdraft fees are illegal," he said. The American Bankers Association did not immediately respond to a request from CNBC for comment.The new guidance first targets surprise overdraft fees, which can be as much as $36 each, the CFPB said. These fees can happen when a customer had enough money in their account to cover a debit charge at the time the bank authorized it, but then is charged an overdraft fee due to the timing of other charges hitting their account.The second fee the CFPB addresses can happen when a customer deposits a check that ends up bouncing — despite the overdraft being due to the check writer's insufficient funds. The charge is typically $10 to $19 per instance, according to the CFPB.Already this year, many banks have been eliminating overdraft and non-sufficient funds fees or making their policies more consumer-friendly. The CFPB estimates those changes translate into $3 billion in savings for consumers.

FHFA to waive some upfront fees and update credit score model - The Federal Housing Finance Agency announced Monday that it will waive upfront fees for certain borrowers and affordable mortgage products. The agency is also moving to replace the outdated credit score model used by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The elimination of upfront fees for underserved borrowers will go into effect as soon as possible, FHFA Director Sandra Thompson said during the Mortgage Bankers Association's annual convention in Nashville. The transition from Classic FICO, which has been used by the enterprises for over 20 years, to FICO 10T and VantageScore 4.0, will be a lengthy undertaking. The agency said the enterprises will begin a "multi-year implementation phase." "There's a lot of work that is going to have to be done to make sure that all stakeholders are well informed…," Thompson said. "We want to make sure that we take our time." The goal behind both initiatives is to give "everyone equitable access to long-term, affordable housing opportunities, in a system that is safe, sound, and sustainable," Thompson said in prepared remarks. Borrowers with limited resources for down payments and those in underserved communities will benefit from the announced fee elimination. First-time homebuyers at or below 100% of area median income and below 120% AMI in high-cost areas will qualify, as well as borrowers who opt for HomeReady and Home Possible loans, which are among Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's most affordable lending products. The agency expects one in five borrowers to be eligible for these pricing benefits, Thompson said.

 Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate decreased in September --Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in September was 0.67%, down from 0.70% August. Freddie's rate is down year-over-year from 1.46% in September 2021.Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". Mortgages in forbearance are being counted as delinquent in this monthly report but are not reported to the credit bureaus.The serious delinquency rate was at 0.60% just prior to the pandemic - almost back to that level.Note that multi-family delinquencies have been increasing and were at 0.13% in September.

 U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to 7.16%, highest since 2001 - (Reuters) - The average interest rate on the most popular U.S. home loan rose to its highest level since 2001 as tightening financial conditions weigh on the housing sector, data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) showed on Wednesday. The average contract rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose by 22 basis points to 7.16% for the week ended Oct. 21 while the MBA's Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, fell 1.7% from a week earlier. Mortgage application activity is at its slowest pace since 1997. Mortgage rates have more than doubled since the beginning of the year, as the Federal Reserve pursues an aggressive path of interest rate hikes to rein in stubbornly high inflation. The central bank is expected to raise rates by 75 basis points for a fourth straight time at the conclusion of its next policy meeting on Nov. 1-2. Those actions, designed to cool the economy sufficiently to curb price pressures, have weighed heavily on the interest-rate-sensitive housing sector as expectations for Fed tightening have led to a surge in Treasury yields. The yield on the 10-year note acts as a benchmark for mortgage rates.

Mortgage rates rise to highest level since 2001 -U.S. mortgage rates rose for the 10th consecutive week, climbing above 7 percent last week to their highest level since 2001, according to data released Wednesday by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).The MBA’s weekly survey shows that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 7.16 percent, up from 6.94 percent a week earlier, while purchase applications dipped to their lowest level in seven years.“Mortgage rates increased for the 10th consecutive week, with the 30-year fixed rate reaching 7.16 percent, the highest rate since 2001,” Joel Kan, the MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist, said in a statement.“The ongoing trend of rising mortgage rates continues to depress mortgage application activity, which remained at its slowest pace since 1997,” Kan added.The share of adjustable-rate mortgage applications decreased slightly to 12.7 percent of total applications, while refinance activity increased to 28.8 percent of total applications from 28.3 percent the previous week.“MBA’s forecast expects both economic and housing market weakness in 2023 to drive a 3 percent decline in purchase originations, while refinance volume is anticipated to decline by 24 percent,” Kan added.Surging mortgage rates, fueled by aggressive interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve to battle ongoing inflation, continue to dramatically cool the once red-hot housing market.U.S. home prices saw a record slowdown in August, falling by 2.6 percent, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index released Tuesday.“The -2.6% difference between those two monthly rates of change is the largest deceleration in the history of the index (with July’s deceleration now ranking as the second largest),” Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a statement.Lazzara predicted the slowdown will continue if interest rates continue to dampen affordability.“As the Federal Reserve moves interest rates higher, mortgage financing becomes more expensive, and housing becomes less affordable,” Lazzara said. “Given the continuing prospects for a challenging macroeconomic environment, home prices may well continue to decelerate.”

Mortgage Bankers Predict Mortgage Rates to Drop to 5.4% by End of 2023. A Year Ago, They Forecast 4% by Now, but Now We’re at 7%. Wishful Thinking by Crushed Mortgage Lenders? by Wolf Richter - On Sunday at the Mortgage Bankers Association Annual Convention & Expo in Nashville, the MBA’s chief economist Mike Fratantoni forecast that by the end of 2023, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate would drop to 5.4%. And this made some headlines in the news.In its regular monthly forecast, the MBA predicted the same: Mortgage rates would drop to 5.4% by the end of 2023. But it also forecast that mortgage rates, which are now around 7%, will drop to 6.2% by the end of March 2023, and will then continue dropping for the rest of the year until they reach 5.4% at the end of 2023.But wait a minute… In October 2021, exactly a year ago, the MBA forecastthat the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate would be 4% by Q4 2022, which is right now. And right now mortgage rates are 7%.It was and remains just incomprehensible to the mortgage industry that mortgage rates could actually go back to what used to be the old normal before QE. And wishful thinking sets in.Along with many others, the MBA is forecasting a recession for the first half next year, or at least the good folks there are hoping for a recession by then, because they’re hoping that a recession would bring down mortgage rates, because the surge in mortgage rates this year has crushed and battered the mortgage bankers’ business.The mortgage industry makes its revenues from writing mortgages and then selling the mortgages to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and other financial institutions that then securitize the mortgages into MBS. And those revenues have collapsed.There have been mass-layoffs across mortgage lenders, some of the bigger ones are teetering, and some smaller ones already shut down or filed for bankruptcy. The stocks of the biggest mortgage lenders have collapsed from their highs by 79% (United Wholesale Mortgage), by 85% (Rocket Companies, former Quicken Loans, the #1 mortgage lender in the US), and by 96% (Loandepot), and they’re all featured in my Imploded Stocks. For more on the plight of this industry, read Mortgage Lender Woes.The mortgage refinance business has collapsed by 85% from a year ago, to the lowest level since the year 2000, according to mortgage applications data from the MBA, because hardly anyone would be refinancing a 3% mortgage into a 7% mortgage, except to pull out cash, and then sell the home asap. And the business of writing mortgages to purchase a home has plunged by 35% from the still gloriously heady days a year ago: So praying for a recession, and hoping that the recession will cause the Fed to relent and cut interest rates and end this horrible cruel QT, and start buying MBS and do QE all over again to bring down mortgage rates, while inflation is tearing up the economy, is the logical thing to pray for, if your industry is getting battered by collapsing revenues.“The upside of that [recession] potentially for the industry is, that’s the thing that’s likely going to bring rates down a little bit,” Fratantoni said, as reported by MarketWatch.“Mortgage rates will drop as the global economy slows, settle at 5.4% by the end of 2023,” a slide in his presentation said.The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 7.29% today, according to the daily measure by Mortgage News Daily. The weekly measures from Freddie Mac and the MBA last week rose to 6.94%, over twice the rate a year ago.

Mortgage rates have more than doubled over the last year — and could keep climbing --Average long-term U.S. mortgage rates inched up this week ahead of another expected rate increase by the Federal Reserve when it meets early next month. Mortgage buyer Freddie Mac reported Thursday that the average on the key 30-year rate ticked up this week to 6.94% from 6.92% last week. Last year at this time, the rate was 3.09%."The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage continues to remain just shy of 7% and is adversely impacting the housing market in the form of declining demand," Freddie Mac Chief Economist Sam Khater said in a statement. "Additionally, homebuilder confidence has dropped to half what it was just six months ago and construction, particularly single-family residential construction, continues to slow down."The average rate on 15-year, fixed-rate mortgages, popular among those looking to refinance their homes, jumped to 6.23% from 6.09% last week. Last week it climbed over 6% for the first time since the housing market crash of 2008. One year ago, the 15-year rate was 2.33%.Late in September, the Federal Reserve bumped its benchmark borrowing rate by another three-quarters of a point in an effort to constrain the economy and tame inflation. It was the Fed's fifth increase this year and third consecutive 0.75 percentage point increase. The Fed's next two-day policy meeting opens Nov. 1, with most economists expecting another big three-quarters of a point hike.Despite the Fed's swift and heavy rate increases, inflation has hardly budged from 40-year highs and the labor market remains tight.Many prospective buyers have been pushed out of the market as average mortgage rates have more than doubled this year, while home prices remain steep and properties are in short supply. Sales of previously occupied U.S. homes fell in September for the eighth month in a row, matching the pre-pandemic sales pace from 10 years ago.

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey; Lowest Level Since 1997 - From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey: Mortgage applications decreased 1.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 21, 2022.... The Refinance Index increased 0.1 percent from the previous week and was 86 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was 42 percent lower than the same week one year ago.“Mortgage rates increased for the 10th consecutive week, with the 30-year fixed rate reaching 7.16 percent, the highest rate since 2001. The ongoing trend of rising mortgage rates continues to depress mortgage application activity, which remained at its slowest pace since 1997,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Refinance applications were ess entially unchanged, but purchase applications declined 2 percent to the slowest pace since 2015 – over 40 percent behind last year’s pace. Despite higher rates and lower overall application activity, there was a slight increase in FHA purchase applications, as FHA rates remained lower than conventional loan rates.”Added Kan, “MBA’s forecast expects both economic and housing market weakness in 2023 to drive a 3 percent decline in purchase originations, while refinance volume is anticipated to decline by 24 percent....The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) increased to 7.16 percent from 6.94 percent, with points decreasing to 0.88 from 0.95 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

 Mortgage demand from homebuyers is nearly half what it was in 2021 - Mortgage demand fell last week to nearly half what it was a year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, as rates hit their highest level in 21 years.Overall, demand for mortgages is at the lowest level since 1997. Mortgage applications to purchase a home dropped 2% from the prior week and were 42% lower than the same week in 2021. The annual comparison continues to jump each week, as fewer buyers either want or can afford to get into this very pricey housing market.Applications to refinance a home loan fell just 0.1% for the week, but only because they were so low to begin with – down 86% from a year ago. There are currently fewer than 150,000 qualified borrowers who could benefit from a refinance at today's rates, according to Black Knight.Mortgage rates declined slightly to start this week, but are still well over 7% after beginning the year at around 3%. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) increased to 7.16% from 6.94%, with points decreasing to 0.88 from 0.95 (including the origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment.Federal Housing Administration loans, which come with lower rates and smaller down payment requirements, did experience a slight uptick during the week."Despite higher rates and lower overall application activity, there was a slight increase in FHA purchase applications, as FHA rates remained lower than conventional loan rates," said Joel Kan, an economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association.The share of homebuyers applying for adjustable-rate mortgages remained high at more than four times what it was at the start of this year. ARMs offer lower rates but are considered a riskier product.High interest rates are also weighing on home prices. While prices are still higher than they were a year ago, the gains are now slowing at a record pace. Homebuyers are also reconsidering their purchases. Pulte Groupreported a 24% cancellation rate in its latest quarterly earnings report Tuesday and said it expected an even higher rate for the next quarter.

US sees record slowdown in home prices - U.S. home prices saw a record slowdown in August, falling by 2.6 percent as the Federal Reserve moves aggressively to raise rates — making it more costly to afford a mortgage.The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index released Tuesday shows a 13 percent annual gain in August for home prices, but a sharp 2.6 percent drop from July to August. That’s the largest monthly drop on record.“The forceful deceleration in U.S. housing prices that we noted a month ago continued in our report for August 2022,” Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI, said in a media statement.“The -2.6% difference between those two monthly rates of change is the largest deceleration in the history of the index (with July’s deceleration now ranking as the second largest),” Lazzara added. Meanwhile, the 20-City Composite index, which measures price growth in major U.S. m etros, posted a 13.1 percent year-over-year gain, down from 16 percent the previous month.“As the Federal Reserve moves interest rates higher, mortgage financing becomes more expensive, and housing becomes less affordable,” Lazzara said. “Given the continuing prospects for a challenging macroeconomic environment, home prices may well continue to decelerate.”Mortgage rates reached a 20-year high last week, climbing to 6.94 percent and more than doubling interest rates from a year before.

 Case-Shiller: National House Price Index "Continued to Decelerate" to 13.0% year-over-year increase in August -- S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for August ("August" is a 3-month average of June, July and August closing prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.From S&P: S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Index Continued to Decelerate in August: The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 13.0% annual gain in August, down from 15.6% in the previous month. The 10- City Composite annual increase came in at 12.1%, down from 14.9% in the previous month. The 20- City Composite posted a 13.1% year-over-year gain, down from 16.0% in the previous month.Miami, Tampa, and Charlotte reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in August. Miami led the way with a 28.6% year-over-year price increase, followed by Tampa in second with a 28.0% increase, and Charlotte in third with a 21.3% increase. All 20 cities reported lower price increases in the year ending August 2022 versus the year ending July 2022. ...Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a -1.1% month-over-month decrease in August, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted decreases of -1.6%. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month decrease of -0.9%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted decreases of -1.3%.In August, all 20 cities reported declines before and after seasonal adjustments. “The forceful deceleration in U.S. housing prices that we noted a month ago continued in our report for August 2022,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. “For example, the National Composite Index rose by 13.0% for the 12 months ended in August, down from its 15.6% year-over-year growth in July. The -2.6% difference between those two monthly rates of change is the largest deceleration in the history of the index (with July’s deceleration now ranking as the second largest). “Month-over-month comparisons are consistent with these observations. All three composites declined in July, as did prices in every one of our 20 cities. On a month-over-month basis, the biggest declines occurred on the west coast, with San Francisco (-4.3%), Seattle (-3.9%), and San Diego (-2.8%) falling the most. The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).The Composite 10 index is down 1.3% in August (SA).The Composite 20 index is down 1.3% (SA) in August.The National index is 64% above the bubble peak (SA), and down 0.9% (SA) in August. The National index is up 121% from the post-bubble low set in February 2012 (SA). The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices.The Composite 10 SA is up 12.1% year-over-year. The Composite 20 SA is up 13.1% year-over-year.The National index SA is up 13.0% year-over-year.Price increases were lower than expectations

Home Prices Plunge Most Since 2009, Pulte CEO Fears "Financial & Psychological Hurdles" Ahead For Homebuyers -- After tumbling for the first time since 2012 in July, Case-Shiller's 20-City Composite Home Price index was expected to drop even faster in August (the latest data available) as mortgage rates soared, crushing affordability. Analysts were right as the 20-City Composite index plunged 1.32% MoM (far larger than the 0.8% drop expected), diving the YoY growth in the 20-City Composite to 13.08% (well down from the 14.0% exp) Graph Source: BloombergThat is the biggest MoM drop since March 2009 and the slowest YoY growth since Feb 2021."The forceful deceleration in U.S. housing prices that we noted a month ago continued," Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in statement. "Price gains decelerated in every one of our 20 cities. These data show clearly that the growth rate of housing prices peaked in the spring of 2022 and has been declining ever since."Miami, Tampa, Charlotte reported highest year-over-year gains among 20 cities surveyed, while on a seasonally-adjusted basis, prices fell the most in August (MoM) in San Francisco (-4.3%), Seattle (-3.9%), San Diego (-2.8%), and Los Angeles (-2.3%).The growth in the national home price index has now slowed for 5 straight months (now below 13% YoY for the first time since Feb 2021). The absolute drop in the growth rate of 2.62 percentage points is the largest ever... Finally, given the unprecedented explosion in mortgage rates, just where will home prices end? We would like to think Powell's plan does not involve that kind of collapse... or maybe it is - since prices will have to fall considerably more to become affordable for the average American to follow his 'dream'.As Lazzara previously concluded, “as the Federal Reserve continues to move interest rates upward, mortgage financing has become more expensive, a process that continues to this day. Given the prospects for a more challenging macroeconomic environment, home prices may well continue to decelerate.”And by way of example, Pulte Homes today, during their earnings conference call, said that it was expanding incentives, including price-cuts, as sales slump.“Demand clearly slowed in the period as dramatically higher interest rates created financial and psychological hurdles for potential homebuyers,” Ryan Marshall, PulteGroup’s president and chief executive officer, said in the statement. Additionally, contracts were canceled in 24% of deals in the period, up from 15% in the second quarter, the Atlanta-based builder said in a statement Tuesday. Purchase contracts fell 28% from a year earlier to 4,924, missing the average estimate of 5,715 from analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. And bear in mind that this is for Q3 (after the heavily lagged Case-Shiller Index) with Pulte warning in today's call that "demand got even more challenging in October".

Fed's rate hikes are tanking the mortgage market -Rising interest rates are wreaking havoc in the mortgage market, forcing borrowers on the sidelines and making it tough for lenders to originate home loans. Mortgage rates have doubled this year hitting an average of 6.94% last week, while home loan applications have fallen to their lowest level in 25 years. Credit availability is at its lowest level in nearly 10 years, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Mortgage rates now are so high that many lenders are losing money on loans they originate."We're in a situation where for the foreseeable short-term future, a larger and larger percentage of potential borrowers are not going to get a loan," said Bryan Filkey, chief operating officer at InterFirst Mortgage Co., a national mortgage lender based in Rosemont, Illinois. Mortgage market Mortgage originations have stalled since January 2021, sparked by the Fed's aggressive rate hikes and regulatory requirements that make it harder for banks to sell mortgages on the secondary market. Bloomberg News The mortgage market is tanking from the Fed's two-pronged strategy of raising rates and reducing its $9 trillion-dollar balance sheet by allowing its mortgage-backed securities portfolio to roll off its balance sheet. Lenders also are struggling to meet certain regulatory requirements put in place after the 2008 financial crisis that curbed abusive practices. This week, mortgage lenders meeting in Nashville, Tennessee, at the MBA's annual convention face the worst headwinds in more than a decade. "The next three months — this winter — are going to be horrible for our industry," said Dave Stevens, CEO of Mountain Lake Consulting and a former MBA president and chief executive and former head of the Federal Housing Administration. "We're in the worst cycle for home purchases with the worst rates that we've seen in decades, compounded by global events. We all have to hope that the Fed's efforts to slow inflation work." The MBA is predicting a 49% drop in total lending volume this year to $2.26 trillion from a year ago. Refinances are expected to plummet 74% to $671 billion while home purchases are expected to drop 14% to $1.59 trillion. The MBA forecast calls for a recession in 2023 with another 10% drop in home loan volume to $2.05 trillion. Lenders face a radically altered market after a long housing boom that brought a tsunami of refinancings, massive demand during the pandemic and years of surging home prices that have buoyed the economy. The whiplash is being felt throughout the mortgage industry, said Susan Stewart, chief executive of SWBC Mortgage Corp., a mid-sized independent mortgage bank in San Antonio, who predicts a 25% contraction in the number of lenders as mortgage bankers sell off their businesses during this downturn. "It's the perfect storm, and it's really got lenders rattled," said Stewart, who served as the MBA's chairman last year. "It's not unusual to have cycles that are up and down and lenders reduce staff. But this time has been much tougher because the people who have worked so hard the last two years, now lenders have to turn around and say, 'We're sorry, we have to reduce staff right now.' And that's mentally really tough." Still, many mortgage experts point out that interest rates have been kept artificially low for more than a decade because the Fed never completely unwound the various forms of stimulus put in place after the housing crisis. The mortgage market is coming off its most profitable years ever, in which super-low rates drove soaring loan volumes and record profits for lenders.

U.S. home prices could fall as much as 20% next year - CBS News -Home prices have slumped during the second half of 2022, with demand for residential real estate cooling off in a number cities across the U.S. Prices could continue to fall by as much as 20% next year as mortgage rates climb and the housing market normalizes in wake of the pandemic, according to a noted Wall Street economist.Ian Shepherdson, chief economist with Pantheon Macroeconomics, said in a report last week that tumbling demand for homes amid sharply rising mortgage rates is weighing heavily on housing prices. "[W]e expect home sales to keep falling until early next year. By that point, sales will have fallen to the incompressible minimum level, where the only people moving home are those with no choice due to job or family circumstances," he said. "Discretionary buyers are disappearing rapidly in the face of the near-400 [basis point] increase in rates over the past year."Economists at Goldman Sachs said they expect home prices to fall by a more modest 5% to 10% next year. Cities that saw the sharpest spikes in home prices last year are now seeing them return to earth, including places like Austin, Texas; Phoenix, Arizona; Salt Lake City, Utah; and Denver, Colorado. Home sales fell to 4.7 million last month, down 1.5% from August, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Mortgage rates have more than doubled this year. The average rate on a typical 30-year mortgage rose this week to 6.94%, from 3.2% in January. The average rate on 15-year, fixed-rate mortgages is now 6.23%, compared with 2.33% a year ago."Higher interest rates, combined with elevated home prices, have put the cost of a home out of reach for many potential buyers," EY Parthenon Chief Economist Gregory Daco said Tuesday. "Home price growth should continue to slow rapidly and is set to contract markedly next year."Rising rates have also forced some homesellers to pump the brakes on selling their property because they would have to get a mortgage to buy another home as rates are surging. "It's entirely possible that even people who want to trade down will face a bigger monthly payment," Shepherdson said. "That's a good reason to stay put, thereby constraining supply."

New Home Sales Decrease to 603,000 Annual Rate in September --The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 603 thousand.The previous three months were revised down, combined. Sales of new single‐family houses in September 2022 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 603,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 10.9 percent below the revised August rate of 677,000 and is 17.6 percent below the September 2021 estimate of 732,000. The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.New home sales are below pre-pandemic levels.The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.The months of supply increased in September to 9.2 months from 8.1 months in August.The all-time record high was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.5 months, most recently in October 2020. This is well above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal)."The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end ofSeptember was 462,000. This represents a supply of 9.2 months at the current sales rate."The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).In September 2022 (red column), 49 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 58 thousand homes were sold in September.The all-time high for September was 99 thousand in 2005, and the all-time low for September was 24 thousand in 2011. This was slightly above expectations, however sales in the three previous months were revised down, combined.

New Home Sales Down 10.9% in September - This morning's release of the September New Home Sales from the Census Bureau came in at 603K, down 10.9% month-over-month from a revised 677K in August. The Investing.com forecast was for 585K. The median home price is now at $470.6K. Here is the opening from the report: Sales of new single‐family houses in September 2022 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 603,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 10.9 percent (±15.2 percent)* below the revised August rate of 677,000 and is 17.6 percent (±15.9 percent) below the September 2021 estimate of 732,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in September 2022 was $470,600. The average sales price was $517,700. [Full Report] For a longer-term perspective, here is a snapshot of the data series, which is produced in conjunction with the Department of Housing and Urban Development. The data since January 1963 is available in the St. Louis Fed's FRED repository here. We've included a six-month moving average to highlight the trend in this highly volatile series.

New Home Sales Decreased in September; Completed Inventory Increased - Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Decreased in September; Completed Inventory Increased Brief excerpt: The next graph shows the months of supply by stage of construction. “Months of supply” is inventory at each stage, divided by the sales rate.There are 1.1 months of completed supply (red line). This is about two-thirds of the normal level.The inventory of new homes under construction is at 6.0 months (blue line). This elevated level of homes under construction is due to supply chain constraints.And a record 105 thousand homes have not been started - about 2.1 months of supply (grey line) - about double the normal level. Homebuilders are probably waiting to start some homes until they have a firmer grasp on prices and demand....First, as I discussed last month, the Census Bureau overestimates sales, and underestimates inventory when cancellation rates are rising, see: New Home Sales and Cancellations: Net vs Gross Sales. So, take the headline sales number with a large grain of salt - the actual negative impact on the homebuilders is greater than the headline number suggests!...There are a large number of homes under construction, and this suggests we will see a sharp increase in completed inventory over the next several months - and that will put pressure on new home prices.

NAR: Pending Home Sales Decreased 10.2% in September, Year-over-year Down 31% --From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Waned 10.2% in September -- Pending home sales trailed off for the fourth consecutive month in September, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. All four major regions recorded month-over-month and year-over-year declines in transactions.The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, slumped 10.2% to 79.5 in September. Year-over-year, pending transactions slid by 31.0%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001."Persistent inflation has proven quite harmful to the housing market," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. "The Federal Reserve has had to drastically raise interest rates to quell inflation, which has resulted in far fewer buyers and even fewer sellers."...The Northeast PHSI descended 16.2% from last month to 64.2, a decline of 30.1% from September 2021. The Midwest index retracted 8.8% to 80.7 in September, down 26.7% from one year ago.The South PHSI faded 8.1% to 97.0 in September, a drop of 30.0% from the prior year. The West index slipped by 11.7% in September to 62.7, down 38.7% from September 2021. This was a much larger decline than expected for this index. Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in October and November.

A "Record" Number Of Real Estate Agents Will Quit Due To Economy, Realtor Predicts - In the economic maelstrom within which we find ourselves thrashing around this fall, there’s been plenty of talk about the potential housing crash ahead and the future layoffs that could fuel it, but I’ve seen only a few passing comments on the job losses and pay cuts we’re almost certain to sustain within the real estate industry itself. There are more than 3 million people holding active real estate licenses in the United States, according to the Association of Real Estate License Law Officials (ARELLO). The vast majority of these are unsalaried, receive no benefits, and earn a 100% commission-based income. Due to the extreme and immediate sensitivity of agent and broker earnings to market conditions, they might be among the first to have their wages severely impacted by the recession. Even if home prices stay relatively stable in 2023 (a big if), depressed sales activity is likely to gouge away a sizable percentage of the earnings of those 3 million agents. Existing home sales in September were down 23.8% YoY, according to the National Association of Realtors. At this rate, an agent who makes $100k/year would see their annual income drop to something in the family of $76,000 if sales don’t go down any further and prices stay the same. With ample reason to believe that both of these metrics will decline in 2023, let’s just say the forecast is pretty grim. I’m going to share my story at the risk of revealing the wet spots behind my ears, because I think it’s an illustrative one. In the summer of 2019, I got my real estate license and sold a few homes part time. I left my job when COVID hit and subsequently dove into real estate full time (and then some). Although I already had my license, I was effectively part of that record-breaking wave of agents who entered the industry in 2020 and 2021. In those two years put together, more than 156k new agents began their careers; that’s 60% more than in the two years prior. While the real estate licensure exam is no joke, getting started as an agent is almost embarrassingly easy relative to other careers with a similar earnings potential. The mandatory pre-licensing course can be completed in 3 months for about $400 (less with a Groupon; I’m not kidding). There are longer, more rigorous, and more expensive routes to the same destination, but as every agent will tell you, 95% of what must be memorized in order to pass the test is useless once you begin your career. Real estate is truly an apprenticeship profession. For this reason, many agents-in-training opt for the quick n’ dirty path to licensure. At least 20% of US workers decided to change careers during the pandemic. Real estate’s low barrier to entry, high earnings potential, and a record-busting housing boom were all potent motivators. According to Google Search Trends, the top job-related search in 2021 was “how to become a real estate agent”. That year, we all repeatedly heard the media quip about there being more agents in the USA than there were homes for sale. And while low inventory did mean that one’s work with a buyer was likely to be prolonged and arduous, for those who were willing to put in the hours, making money in real estate was like shooting fish in a barrel. Everyone and their brother was buying, and at least in my area, most serious shoppers were eventually ending up in new homes.

Nearly 1 In 10 Rent-Regulated Apartments In NYC Were Vacant In 2021 - It only takes so long before rising prices and surging crime start to show up in a city's population and housing data. The latest such data point for New York City is a report from the Department of Housing Preservation and Development that 88,830 stabilized apartments were vacant in 2021. This number is significantly higher than the previously reported 61,000 by the state, according to the City, who obtained the previously unreleased updated figures. The Department of Housing Preservation and Development based its estimates on data collected by the U.S. Census Bureau last year. The city has about 1 million stabilized units which are mostly located in buildings erected before 1974, the blog says. The increased estimates includes 42,860 units that were "unavailable" and "tens of thousands" more still available for rent, according to HPD Chief Research Officer Lyz Gaumer. Collectively this encompasses both apartments that are up for rent and others than landlords are keeping off the market, but are still livable. Gaumer told The City that the numbers are “a very conservative estimate of the entire warehoused apartment universe.” “We are accounting for numbers that aren’t necessarily reported to the state,” said HPD department spokesperson Jeremy House. The state uses data that is reported to them by landlords and owners, he noted. Census data revealed that 4.54% of all New York apartments were vacant as of 2021, up from 3.63% in 2017, The City wrote. A rent emergency for the city is enacted only after vacancies exceed 5%.

In Striking Reversal, Renters Finally Hit “Breaking Point” Forcing Landlords To Slash Prices - For much of the past year, as the housing market cratered, potential middle-class homebuyers who found themselves locked out of buying a house due to the explosive surge in mortgage rates, had no choice but to continue renting in the process pushing asking rents even higher as the housing market tanked. But with US consumers increasingly stretched well beyond their breaking point in a world where the price of everything continues to soar, making rent itself an unaffordable luxury for many, the rental juggernaut has finally come to a sudden halt, and according to Bloomberg, "after a record surge in housing costs and ballooning expenses for everything from food to energy, America’s renters have had enough." In what may be the best news for renters - and bulls desperate for a Fed pivot - rent gains are finally starting to slow in many parts of the US, cooling a years-long boom that sapped affordability from coast to coast. That's because with demand from tenants is suddenly sinking, landlords have little choice but to ease off big increases. It’s a dramatic reversal from the situation we described just months ago, when people were fighting over a limited supply of apartments, getting on waiting lists or paying multiple application fees to land one home. Now, particularly in pandemic boom markets such as Las Vegas and Phoenix, the application piles have thinned out and listings are lingering longer. And in the latest attempt to crush the US economy by an unknown elite, the measures of US household formation have even turned negative. But wait, you may say: it's not like housing is a discretionary choice - after all, everyone has to live somewhere, right? Well yes... and unlike recent years, young people who otherwise might be striking out on their own are instead staying with the parents or, like 18-year-old Coleby Hillenbrand, cramming into tiny apartments with multiple roommates.... and we aren't talking Manhattan. To be sure, this is one crisis that is good news for most Americans, because in a US housing market that recently hit the most unaffordable level in history as mortgage rates rise for homebuyers, any sign of a rental cool-off is welcome news. Then again, it's bad news when one consider how it emerged: as Bloomberg notes, it’s the product of economic turmoil as people struggle with soaring costs of goods and services and wages that aren’t keeping up. With a recession looming, the safe move is to stay put. For the Federal Reserve, aggressively raising interest rates to curb inflation, an easing of one of its key measures would be a positive sign.

Las Vegas September 2022: Visitor Traffic Down Just 3.5% Compared to 2019 --Note: I like using Las Vegas as a measure of recovery for both leisure (visitors) and business (conventions). From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: August 2022 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics: September saw strong visitation of 3.35M visitors, just ‐3.5% behind September 2019, with notable weekend holidays and events from Labor Day to the Life Is Beautiful festival, the Canelo/GGG fight, Mexican Independence Day, the Raiders/Cardinals home game, Bad Bunny World's Hottest Tour and the iHeartRadio Music festival.Overall hotel occupancy reached 83.1%, +10.1 pts ahead of last September but down ‐5.2 pts vs. September 2019. Weekend occupancy reached 92.1% (up +3.0 pts YoY but down ‐3.5 pts vs. September 2019), while Midweek occupancy reached 78.6% (up +12.5 pts YoY but down ‐6.5 pts vs. September 2019).Strong weekend demand supported by major events translated to record monthly ADR levels as September ADR approached $187, +20.1% YoY and +36.5% ahead of September 2019 while RevPAR neared $156 for the month, +36.8% YoY and +28.5% over September 2019 The first graph shows visitor traffic for 2019 (dark blue), 2020 (light blue), 2021 (yellow) and 2022 (red)Visitor traffic was down 3.5% compared to the same month in 2019. Visitor traffic was up 14.3% compared to last September. The second graph shows convention traffic.Convention traffic was down 18.9% compared to August 2019.

Personal Income increased 0.4% in September; Spending increased 0.6% - The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for June: Personal income increased $78.9 billion (0.4 percent) in September, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $71.3 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $113.0 billion (0.6 percent).The PCE price index increased 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.5 percent. Real DPI increased less than 0.1 percent in September and Real PCE increased 0.3 percent; goods increased 0.4 percent and services increased 0.3 percent.The September PCE price index increased 6.2 percent year-over-year (YoY), unchanged 6.2 percent YoY in August, and down from 7.0 percent in June. The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 5.1 percent YoY, up from 4.9 percent in August. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through September 2022 (2012 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change. The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.Personal income and the increase in PCE were both above expectations. Inflation was close to expectations.

PCE Price Index: September Headline at 6.24% YoY -- The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report for September was published this morning by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The latest Headline PCE price index was up 0.33% month-over-month (MoM) and is up 6.24% year-over-year (YoY). Core PCE (YoY) is now at 5.15%, well above the Fed's 2% target rate. The adjacent thumbnail gives us a close-up of the trend in YoY Core PCE since January 2012. The first string of red data points highlights the 12 consecutive months when Core PCE hovered in a narrow range around its interim low. The second string highlights the lower range from late 2014 through 2015. Core PCE shifted higher in 2016 with a decline in 2017, 2019, and 2020, with a major increase in 2022. The first chart below shows the monthly year-over-year change in the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index since 2000. Also included is an overlay of the Core PCE (less Food and Energy) price index, which is Fed's preferred indicator for gauging inflation. The two percent benchmark is the Fed's conventional target for core inflation. Most recently, the Fed reviewed their monetary policy strategy and longer-term goals and released a statement, mentioning its federal mandate to promote "maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates". They also confirmed their commitment to using the two percent benchmark as a lower limit:. Read the August 2020 statement here

Real Disposable Income Per Capita Mostly Unchanged in September - With the release of this morning's report on September's Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.35% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.02% when we adjust for inflation. This is a decrease from last month's 0.42% nominal and 0.16% real change. The year-over-year metrics are 2.88% nominal and -3.16% real. Post-Great recession, the trend was one of steady growth, but generally flattened out in late 2015 with increases in 2012 and 2013. As a result of COVID pandemic stimulus measures, major spikes can be seen in April 2020, January 2021 (a December 2020 payment), and March 2021. The first chart shows both the nominal per capita disposable income and the real (inflation-adjusted) equivalent since 2000. This indicator was significantly disrupted by the bizarre but predictable oscillation caused by 2012 year-end tax strategies in expectation of tax hikes in 2013 and more recently, by COVID stimulus. The BEA uses the average dollar value in 2012 for inflation adjustment. But the 2012 peg is arbitrary and unintuitive. For a more natural comparison, let's compare the nominal and real growth in per-capita disposable income since 2000. Nominal disposable income is up 120% since then. But the real purchasing power of those dollars is up 37%.

Consumer Confidence Retreats in October - The headline number of 102.5 was a decrease of 5.3 from the final reading of 107.8 for September.The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased in October after back-to-back monthly gains. The Index now stands at 102.5 (1985=100), down from 107.8 in September. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—declined sharply to 138.9 from 150.2 last month. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—declined to 78.1 from 79.5.“Consumer confidence retreated in October, after advancing in August and September,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “The Present Situation Index fell sharply, suggesting economic growth slowed to start Q4. Consumers’ expectations regarding the short-term outlook remained dismal. The Expectations Index is still lingering below a reading of 80—a level associated with recession—suggesting recession risks appear to be rising.”“Notably, concerns about inflation—which had been receding since July—picked up again, with both gas and food prices serving as main drivers. Vacation intentions cooled; however, intentions to purchase homes, automobiles, and big-ticket appliances all rose. Looking ahead, inflationary pressures will continue to pose strong headwinds to consumer confidence and spending, which could result in a challenging holiday season for retailers. And, given inventories are already in place, if demand falls short, it may result in steep discounting which would reduce retailers’ profit margins.” Read more The chart below is another attempt to evaluate the historical context for this index as a coincident indicator of the economy. Toward this end, we have highlighted recessions and included GDP. The regression through the index data shows the long-term trend and highlights the extreme volatility of this indicator. Statisticians may assign little significance to a regression through this sort of data. But the slope resembles the regression trend for real GDP shown below, and it is a more revealing gauge of relative confidence than the 1985 level of 100 that the Conference Board cites as a point of reference.

Americans' Consumer Sentiment Slumps As 'Current Conditions' Crash To 18-Month Lows - After an unexpected rebound in the last two months, analysts expected The Conference Board's headline sentiment index to weaken in October and it did... considerably. The headline print fell from 107.8 to 102.5 (well below the 105.9 expected). The drop was driven by a plunge in 'current conditions' which fell from 150.2 to 138.9 while 'future expectations' also slipped from 79.5 to 78.1... That is the biggest monthly drop in 'current conditions' since Dec 2021, dragging it to its weakest since April 2021. Given the gloomy signals from UMich (and history of the Conference Board overdoing things to the upside), is there more pain to come for the Conf Board measure... Graphics Source: Bloomberg

Retail: October Seasonal Hiring vs. Holiday Retail Sales – McBride - Every year I track seasonal retail hiring for hints about holiday retail sales. At the bottom of this post is a graph showing the correlation between October seasonal hiring and holiday retail sales. Here is a graph of retail hiring for previous years based on the BLS employment report:This graph shows the historical net retail jobs added for October, November and December by year.Retailers hired about 700 thousand seasonal workers last year (using BLS data, Not Seasonally Adjusted), and 224 thousand seasonal workers last October. Note that in the early '90s, retailers started hiring seasonal workers earlier - and the trend towards hiring earlier has continued.The following scatter graph is for the years 2005 through 2021 and compares October retail hiring with the real increase (inflation adjusted) for retail sales (Q4 over previous Q4).In general October hiring is a pretty good indicator of seasonal sales. R-square is 0.82 for this small sample. Note: This uses retail sales in Q4, and excludes autos, gasoline and restaurants. NOTE: The dot in the upper right - with real Retail sales up almost 10% YoY is for 2020 - when retail sales soared due to the pandemic spending on goods (service spending was soft).When the October employment report is released on November 4th, I'll be looking at seasonal retail hiring for hints on what the retailers actually expect for the holiday season.

 Gas prices ease, but have a way to go for real relief - —Gasoline prices have eased — but there's a long way to go before motorists see major relief. AAA's latest gas price survey shows gas averaged $3.96 a gallon in Western Pennsylvania, down 3 cents from the prior week. A year ago gas cost $3.58 a gallon. Sharon's gas average was $3.97, with Mercer at $4.07 and New Castle $3.93, AAA said. The national price for gas is $3.79. "When the weather starts changing in the fall there's less driving, and demand goes down," Tiffany Stanley, a AAA spokeswoman said Monday. As usual, Pennsylvania's gas prices are higher than Ohio. There's multiple reasons why. Ohio's gas tax is 38.5 cents a gallon versus Pennsylvania's 57.5 cents. Only California has a higher state gas tax, at 68 cents. Also, Ohio's prices are set in the Chicago markets, which has access to cheaper Canadian oil. Western Pennsylvania prices hail from the New York Harbor, where pricier oil is imported from the Middle East and other overseas locations. But a wild card is coming. Last week the Biden administration said it will release 15 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in December. The goal, President Biden said, is to drive down fuel prices. On Friday, the latest date available, the price for West Texas intermediate crude oil was $85.05 a barrel, up 54 cents from Thursday. On Jan. 3 the price was $76.08 "While this announcement will help take some of the pressure off pump prices, the exact pricing impact remains uncertain," Stanley said of the oil release.

US Diesel Shortage News: Diesel shortage across the US? Reports say only 25 days of supply left - With only two weeks until the midterm elections, the United States may be in for a diesel disaster in the coming days due to a rising supply de„cit. The cost of all consumer items and delivery fees would go up if diesel prices rose. Due to the shortage, heating and transportation prices would almost certainly increase, further straining household budgets. According to reports, international shipments are en route but won't get to the United States until the end of October. According to Goldman Sachs, re„nery closures and underinvestment in re„ning capacity are to blame for the scarcity, which is now aƒecting Europe as well. The biggest utility in New England has requested President Joe Biden to start putting emergency plans in place to avoid a potential wintertime natural gas shortage. The request by Eversource comes as concerns about signi„cant energy shortages in some of the most populous regions of the US are mounting. As the coldest months of the year approach, heating oil is already being rationed in the New York City area, and supplies of diesel, which are necessary for shipping, are critically low in the Northeast. While stocks of diesel fuel—used for heating and trucks—remain at the lowest level ever for this time of year, gasoline inventories are at an 8-year seasonal low. As winter approaches, diesel inventories nationally are at their lowest seasonal level ever, and certain regions in the Northeast have started fuel rationing. In the next six months, price increases and shortages of U.S. diesel are likely to emerge unless and until the economy and fuel use slow down. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on October 21 said that the stockpiles of diesel and other distillate fuel oils were just 106 million barrels, the lowest for this time of year since 1982. Distillate inventories were much lower than seasonal averages for the previous ten years by a huge 26 million barrels. In the United States, LEARN MORE Due to investors' reluctance to engage in risky assets in light of China's and the global economy's dimming prospects, oil saw a weekly loss. After American petroleum exports reached a new high and due to tightening markets for diesel in the US and Europe, crude is still up roughly 3% for the week. Additionally, commodities priced in dollars are now more attractive. On the basis of the most recent information available from monthly surveys conducted by the EIA, stocks had already decreased to 113 million barrels by the end of July, the lowest level seen since 1996 and before that, 1954. However, in terms of consumption, stockpiles were just 30 days' worth of demand at the end of July, the lowest seasonal level in monthly records dating back to 1945. Since then, the inventory situation has become even more precarious; in October, stockpiles are thought to have reached a record seasonal low of only 25 days of supply. This is the lowest since 2008. The Northeast-to-Southeast diesel shortfall that last week alarmed the White House is forcing at least one supplier to implement emergency procedures

Orange Juice Prices Soar To Record Highs As Inventories Collapse - We recently outlined "Orange Juice Prices Could "Increase Substantially" As Hurricane Pummels Florida's Top Citrus Grow Region." And that's precisely what's happening today. First, let's begin with US stockpiles of cold-stored orange juice plunged by 43% in September from a year earlier -- the lowest level since 1977, according to the latest US Department of Agriculture data. A combination of crop diseases across Florida's citrus groves and Hurricane Ian that destroyed crops are creating a supply crunch that has catapulted orange juice futures contracts to as high as $2.18 per pound, the highest level ever. Ahead of Hurricane Ian, we penned a note titled "OJ Squeeze Ahead? Tropical Threat Looms For Florida's Citrus Groves" and warned this may spark even higher breakfast inflation. Last month, we noted that a dozen eggs at the supermarket have jumped to record highs due to devastating bird flu. Sticky food inflation continues to wreak havoc on households, as shown in the latest CPI report. Breakfast was cheap but has since become expensive as orange juice and egg prices soar to record highs.

New-Vehicle Inventory Improves, Still Woefully Low. But Full-size Trucks Pile up. Many Fuel-Efficient Models out of Stock by Wolf Richter - Inventories of new vehicles at the end of September rose to 1.23 million vehicles, still down by 62% – or by 2.13 million vehicles! – from September 2019, where there were 3.45 million vehicles in inventory, according to data from Cox Automotive.But it’s not across the board: Some brands offering vehicles with high fuel economy are essentially out of stock (particularly Kia, Toyota, and Honda); other brands are amply stocked or overstocked, particularly those focused on full-size trucks and SUVs (Ram and Jeep). At Ford, Chevy, Chrysler, and Dodge dealers, supply is normalizing. There are now big discounts off MSRP or interest-rate buydowns being offered on pickup trucks. Gone are most of the obnoxious addendum stickers on top of MSRP.Supply at the end of September ticked up to 42 days – enough inventory in stock and in transit to support 42 days of sales. This is still very low, but up from the 30-day range last summer. In the year 2019, supply averaged 89 days, and incentives were big, and there were lots of deals to be had back then. Now, overall supply is still far from those 2019 levels, but inventories of some truck models are climbing back into that range.Overall sales are still terrible – back in the range where they’d first been in the 1970s – handicapped by the shortages across many models, and now perhaps also by sky-high prices. Total new-vehicle sales in September dipped to 1.16 million vehicles, according to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales in September was down by 21.6% from September 2019.As a result of the spectacular price spike of gasoline this year, demand for fuel efficient vehicles surged, which caught automakers by total surprise. Supply chains are long and complex, and production plans are decided way in advance, and production cannot be changed on the spot to accommodate such a sudden change in consumer preferences.In addition, in a move that will go down in automotive history as the best-ever act of Wall Street genius, US brands killed off their smaller fuel-efficient car models in recent years because they couldn’t make enough money on them. Wall Street imposed short-termism had won the day. US automakers, one after the other, fell into the trap. Now they have nothing to sell to those customers. Import brands, whose vehicles are mostly assembled in the US and Mexico, are raking it in.So now the most fuel-efficient vehicles have essentially sold out at dealers. Brands with somewhere near “20 days’ supply” (such as Kia) means that you will find nearly nothing on many dealer lots, and most of the vehicles they’re showing in “inventory” on their websites are actually in transit, and many of them have already been sold before they arrive on the lot.The five brands with the tightest supply – between 19 days and 27 days – are all “import” brands. But they assemble many of their models at plants in the US and Mexico with components that are manufactured in the US, Mexico, Canada, China, Thailand, Japan, Korea, etc. Kia has the least supply: 19.1 days in September, roughly unchanged from August. This means it will be tough to walk into your local dealer and pick out a new vehicle that sits on the lot, and drive home with it.

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rise 0.4% In September, Less Than Expected - - A report released by the Commerce Department on Thursday showed new orders for U.S. manufactured durable goods increased by less than expected in the month of September. The Commerce Department durable goods orders rose by 0.4 percent in September following a revised 0.2 percent uptick in August. Economists had expected durable goods orders to increase by 0.6 percent in September compared to the 0.2 percent dip that had been reported for the previous month. The increase in durable goods orders was partly due to a surge in orders for transportation equipment, which shot up by 2.1 percent in September after climbing by 0.6 percent in August. Orders for non-defense aircraft and parts led the way higher, soaring by 21.9 percent in September after plummeting by 8.6 percent in August. Excluding the jump in orders for transportation equipment, durable goods orders fell by 0.5 percent in September after coming in unchanged in August. Ex-transportation orders were expected to edge up by 0.2 percent. The unexpected drop in ex-transportation orders reflected notable decreases in orders for communications equipment, primary metals and electrical equipment, appliances and components. The report also showed orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a key indicator of business spending, slid by 0.7 percent in September after climbing by 0.8 percent in August. Shipments in the same category, which is the source data for equipment investment in GDP, fell by 0.5 percent in September after inching up by 0.2 percent in the previous month. Core orders decreases for the first time since February 2022, while core shipments declined for the first time since February 2021. "Looking ahead, a dwindling pipeline excluding the transportation sector will offer a minimal growth impulse for manufacturing activity heading into 2023," "The confluence of highly elevated inflation, higher interest rates, weakening demand, softening earnings growth and downbeat sentiment will cause durable goods activity to struggle next year."

US PMIs Plunge Into ‘Contraction’ In Early October, New Orders Weakest Since COVID Lockdowns - Following September's surprise rebound, analysts expected US preliminary October PMIs to be mixed this morning (with Manufacturing slowing while Services ticks slightly higher), but they were very wrong. Both US Manufacturing and Services surveys shoiwed significant decline in early October, both tumbling into contraction.

• US Manufacturing 49.9 (contraction), below 51.0 exp and down from 52.0 prior
• US Services 46.6 (contraction), below 49.5 exp and down from 49.3 prior.

Despite better than expected macro signals... New orders fell back into contraction territory following a marginal expansion in September. The decrease in client demand was solid and the sharpest since May 2020.The drop sent the composite index back down to 47.3, in line with the weakness in EU and UK... Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:“The US economic downturn gathered significant momentum in October, while confidence in the outlook also deteriorated sharply. The decline was led by a downward lurch in services activity, fuelled by the rising cost of living and tightening financial conditions. While output in manufacturing remains more resilient for now, October saw a steep drop in demand for goods, meaning current output is only being maintained by firms eating into backlogs of previously placed orders. Clearly this is unsustainable absent of a revival in demand, and it’s no surprise to see firms cutting back sharply on their input buying to prepare for lower output in coming months. “One upside of this drop in input buying has been a further alleviation of supply constraints, which alongside the stronger dollar have helped cool price pressures in the manufacturing sector.“Although price pressures picked up slightly in the service sector due to high food, energy and staff costs, as well as rising borrowing costs, increased competitive forces meant average prices charged for services grew at only a fractionally faster rate. Combined with the easing of price pressures in the goods-producing sector, this adds to evidence that consumer price inflation should cool in coming months.“The surveys therefore present a picture of the economy at increased risk of contracting in the fourth quarter at the same time that inflationary pressures remain stubbornly high. However, there are clearly signs that weakening demand is helping to moderate the overall rate of inflation, which should continue to fall in the coming months, especially if interest rates continue to rise.”

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Weakened in October -Fifth District manufacturing declined in October, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index is at -10 in October compared to 0 in September.The complete data series behind today's Richmond Fed manufacturing report, which dates from November 1993, is available here.Here is a snapshot of the complete Richmond Fed Manufacturing Composite series. Here is an excerpt from the latest Richmond Fed manufacturing overview:Many Fifth District manufacturing firms reported weaker conditions in October, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index fell from 0 in September to −10 in October, dipping below its August level. Two of its three component indexes deteriorated notably: the indexes for shipments and volume of new orders fell from 14 and −11 in September to −3 and −22 in October, respectively. The third component, the employment index, remained unchanged at 0 in October, as hiring challenges persisted. Link to Report Here is a somewhat closer look at the index since the turn of the century.

Second railroad union rejects deal needed to avoid national strike - The Brotherhood of Railroad Signalmen is the second union to vote down the tentative agreement between rail unions, freight rail companies and the Biden administration that was reached on September 15 and critical to avoiding a nationwide rail strike. The BRS, which represents over 10,000 rail workers and is one of the last three unions at the bargaining table, overwhelmingly rejected the deal, with 39.23% of members approving and 60.57% voting not to approve. "For the first time that I can remember, the BRS members voted not to ratify a National Agreement, and with the highest participation rate in BRS history," said BRS president Michael Baldwin in a statement. "I have expressed my disappointment throughout the process in the lack of good-faith bargaining on the part of the NCCC [National Carriers Conference Committee], as well as the part PEB [Presidential Advisory Board] 250 played in denying BRS members the basic right of paid time off for illness. The NCCC and PEB also both failed to recognize the safety-sensitive and highly stressful job BRS members perform each day to keep the railroad running and supply chain flowing." The rejection of the National Tentative Agreement begins a "status quo" period during which the union will reengage with the NCCC until December 4. A spokesperson for the Association of American Railroads tells CNBC, "Parties have agreed to maintain the status quo so discussions about next steps can progress." The AAR spokesperson cited the fact that half of all rail unions have ratified agreements based upon President Biden's PEB recommendations, which includes the largest wage increases in nearly five decades and would lead to immediate payouts averaging more than $11,000 per railroader ahead of the holidays. "Once in place, contracts crafted in partnership with the most labor friendly administration ever will allow railroads and railroaders to thrive into the future and deliver for both our customers and our families," the railroad spokesperson said. The railroads have estimated that a rail strike could cost the economy $2 billion per day.The BRS vote against ratification follows the Brotherhood of Maintenance of Way Employees (BMWED) which voted not to ratify the tentative deal on October 10. Logistics managers have told CNBC they have been planning again for a possible strike after the September deal seemed to reduce the threat.

Threat of rail strike has supply chain ramping up contingency plans - Logistics managers are dusting off their plans for a possible railroad strike in November that could wreak havoc on the supply chain and cost the U.S. economy up to $2 billion a day. The National Carriers' Conference Committee (NCCC), representing the nation's freight railroads in the national collective bargaining, notified the Brotherhood of Maintenance of Way Employees Division of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters (BMWED) on Wednesday that the union's latest proposal will not be accepted. A deal between the rails and several large unions to avert a strike, with recommendations from the Biden administration, was moving closer to completion before being voted down by the BMWED last week. "Now is not the time to introduce new demands that rekindle the prospect of a railroad strike," the NCCC said in a statement. Tom Nightingale, CEO of AFS Logistics, tells CNBC that logistics managers are fielding calls from customers in anticipation of a possible strike. "Prudent shippers already had a plan in place a month ago, and most who did not have now ramped up their contingency planning after the wakeup call last month," Nightingale said. "Proactivity is the key to supply chain success." For many intermodal shipments — shipments that use multiple modes of transport such as ocean, trucking and freight rail — there can be a week between when cargo is picked up and when it makes it onto the rail lines, according to Nightingale. "That lag time will exacerbate the effects of delays and service interruptions, so effectively managing the risk of intermodal disruption means you must plan early and often," he said. In anticipation of a strike in September, Norfolk Southern, Berkshire Hathaway subsidiary BNSF, CSX , and Union Pacific all began ramping down freight approximately five days ahead of the strike date in an effort to move critical hazmat materials, such as chlorine and ethanol. That freight took priority over common freight. "Shippers had a lot of sensitivity to the potential rail strike," Nightingale said. "No shipper wants to lose their job or risk losing a customer when they have had this much advance notice to a looming disruption." As a result, AFS saw a significant uptick in customers looking to shift loads away from intermodal to other modes like truckload and even less-than-truckload shipping (LTL). "Shippers don't want cargo with a limited shelf life sitting at a rail yard, particularly commodities like chemicals and refrigerated food and beverage," he said.

Judge orders NYC to reinstate workers fired for not complying with COVID vaccine mandate -A judge ordered New York City to reinstate 16 sanitation workers fired earlier this year for refusing to comply with a COVID-19 vaccination mandate for city employees.Judge Ralph Porzio, who sits on the New York Supreme Court in Staten Island, ruled on Tuesday that the city’s health commissioner could not change the workers’ terms of employment, also referencing President Biden saying “the pandemic is over” and Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) ending New York’s state of emergency.Porzio ruled the city owes the workers back pay from when they were fired in February for failing to comply with the mandate, which was implemented last October. The city says it appealed the ruling and the mandate remains in effect.“The vaccination mandate for City employees was not just about safety and public health; it was about compliance,” Porzio wrote, also ruling that the mandate violated the employees’ equal protection rights.

New York begins sheltering refugees in tent city -- Last week, New York City opened up a massive new encampment for refugees and other migrants arriving by the busload from Texas and other southern border states. The barracks-like facility on a desolate island in the East River continues the inhumane treatment of migrants crossing the southern border of the US. The city has tallied more than 20,000 migrants arriving in recent months, many of whom made a desperate trek from Venezuela in an attempt to escape crippling poverty, exacerbated by years of US sanctions that have bankrupted the country. Approximately three-quarters of the migrants processed in New York remain in the shelter system, trapped in immigration limbo and unable to work despite having entered legally while seeking asylum. The bulk of the refugees were placed on buses by Texas Governor Greg Abbott. The fascistic maneuver by the Republican governor is aimed at stoking up anti-immigrant hysteria as part of the Republican Party’s midterm election campaign. The arrival of the migrants in a city of nine million and a regional economy the size of South Korea’s has triggered a political crisis for the Democratic Party administration of Mayor Eric Adams. Since the first buses arrived, the city’s shelter system has been unable to fulfill its legal responsibility to provide safe and decent housing. Migrants who lined up at the overwhelmed Men’s Intake Center in midtown Manhattan were left to sleep on the street or on the floor of offices. Any illusions that the political establishment in the Democratic Party stronghold of New York City would treat immigrants humanely crumbled with Adams’s initial choice of Orchard Beach as the location for his tent city. The isolated, windswept location in the Bronx, surrounded by 2,700 acres of park land, was abandoned after the site flooded during a minor rainstorm. The new location, on Randalls Island, is, if anything, even more isolated and foreboding. Up to 1,000 migrants will be housed in a facility built in a track and field stadium parking lot. There are no permanent residences on the island, which hosts a sewage treatment plant, a psychiatric hospital, training facilities for the New York Police Department and a few buildings sheltering homeless residents.

The Nation’s Report Card shows Cleveland Metropolitan School District's scores declining since 2019 - A National Assessment of Educational progress known as The Nation’s Report Card shows fourth-grade students in the Cleveland Metropolitan School District scored an average of 203 out of 500 in math in 2022, compared to an average of 218 in 2019—the year before the pandemic began.That number is well below the average national score of 227 for students in large cities. The average test score in reading for Cleveland fourth graders dropped 16 points between 2019 and 2022. Eighth graders are also showing a decline in scores, down eight points in math and seven in reading.“Every state as well as every country has suffered,” he “We're picking up the pieces. I feel like everybody's doing the best they can.”The Cleveland Metropolitan School District said it expected this and released the following statement: "Our scores on the National Assessment of Educational Progress confirm what we already knew: The global pandemic had a severe impact on a city with one of the nation’s highest rates of poverty.CMSD students took the exam as the devastating Omicron strain of COVID-19 raged, and Cleveland was the hardest hit area in the nation. The results were then compared with exams taken in 2019, before the pandemic.Prior to the pandemic, our NAEP and state tests showed growth that outpaced districts throughout Ohio and across the country.Our new State Report Card, which compares achievement year to year, shows the District has begun to recover. Cleveland ranked first among Ohio’s urban school systems for academic growth and was 12^th overall.Our recovery plan includes a large summer learning program, adding instructional time to the day during the school year and providing extra homework and tutoring help. We are preparing to roll out an online tutoring program with live teachers."“We know we can and will catch up,” CEO Eric Gordon said. “Our surveys show that the community expected a drop in test scores but has confidence that we will recover.”

 Three dead, six injured in St. Louis, Missouri school shooting, fortieth in the US this year -- A shooting Monday morning at the Central Visual and Performing Arts High School (CVPA) in St. Louis, Missouri left two people dead—a health teacher and a student—along with six wounded. The gunman was killed by police. The teacher has been identified as 61-year-old Jean Kuczka, the student as Alexis Bell, and the shooter as 19-year-old Orlando Harris, a graduate of the school the year prior. An active shooter call was placed to 911 where officers were notified of a man with a “long gun,” according to St. Louis Police Commissioner Mike Sack, inside the CVPA high school. Police arrived at 9:10 a.m. and entered the school where a firefight soon ensued, fatally wounding the suspect. “While on paper we might have nine victims, eight who were transported and one remained, we have hundreds of others,” Sack said at the news conference. “Everyone who survived here is going to take home trauma.” One survivor, mathematics teacher David Williams, reported Harris made the declaration, “You’re all going to fucking die!” Another reported the gunman having said he was “tired of everybody.” Adrianne Bolden, a freshman, recounted his experiences to NBC News, explaining that he and his classmates initially thought an intruder drill was activated. However, upon hearing police sirens outside the building they realized it was no drill. “The teacher, she crawled over and she was asking for help to move the lockers to the door so they can’t get in,” he said. Bolden continued, “[W]e had to wait a little longer before the assistant principal came up to one of the windows that was locked, and when we opened it, the teacher said to ‘come on’ and we all had to jump out of the window.” To escape the gunman, Bolden and his classmates jumped out of a window, risking sprained ankles or broken bones. Another student, 16-year-old Taniya Gholston, told the St. Louis Police Dispatch, “All I heard was two shots and he came in there with a gun,” continuing ,“And I was trying to run and I couldn’t run. Me and him made eye contact but I made it out because his gun got jammed. But we saw blood on the floor.”

School gunman had AR-15-style weapon, 600 rounds of ammo - — The 19-year-old gunman who killed a teacher and a 15-year-old girl at a St. Louis high school was armed with an AR-15-style rifle and what appeared to be more than 600 rounds of ammunition, Police Commissioner Michael Sack said Tuesday. Orlando Harris also left behind a hand-written note offering his explanation for the shooting Monday at Central Visual and Performing Arts High School. Tenth-grader Alexzandria Bell and 61-year-old physical education teacher Jean Kuczka died and seven students were wounded before police killed Harris in an exchange of gunfire. Sack read Harris’ note in which the young man lamented that he had no friends, no family, no girlfriend and a life of isolation. In the note, Harris called it the “perfect storm for a mass shooter.” Sack said Harris had some ammo strapped to his chest, some in a bag, and other magazines were found dumped in stairwells. “This could have been much worse,” Sack said. The attack forced students to barricade doors and huddle in classroom corners, jump from windows and run out of the building to seek safety. One terrorized girl said she was eye-to-eye with the shooter before his gun apparently jammed and she was able to run out. Several people inside the school said they heard Harris warn, “You are all going to die!” Harris, 19, graduated from the school last year. The FBI was assisting police in the investigation. Sack, speaking at a news conference, urged people to come forward when someone who appears to suffer from mental illness or distress begins “speaking about purchasing firearms or causing harm to others.” Relatives of those killed mourned their losses. “Alexzandria was my everything,” her father, Andre Bell, told KSDK-TV. “She was joyful, wonderful and just a great person.” Abby Kuczka said her mother was killed when the gunman burst into her classroom and she moved between him and her students. The seven injured students are all 15 or 16 years old. All were listed in stable condition. Sack said four suffered gunshot or graze wounds, two had bruises and one had a broken ankle — apparently from jumping out of the three-story building. The school in south St. Louis was locked, with seven security guards at the doors, St. Louis Schools Superintendent Kelvin Adams said. A security guard initially became alarmed when he saw Harris trying to get in one of the doors. He was armed with a gun and “there was no mystery about what was going to happen. He had it out and entered in an aggressive, violent manner,” Sack said. That guard alerted school officials and made sure police were contacted.

Texas Revamps ‘Active-Shooter’ Drills at K-12 Schools to Minimize Trauma - After Britt Kelly’s son participated in a lockdown drill two years ago in his Lamar, Texas, kindergarten class, he had nightmares and wet his bed. Now 8, he can sleep only with a light on.In August, Mary Jackson’s daughter, a kindergartner in Leander, asked her mom to put a “special lock” on her bedroom door to “keep bad adults out” in the wake of a separate lockdown drill.Clay Giampaolo, a high school senior with special needs, said that after drills at his school in Plano, he goes to the special education room to “calm down.”As the nation reevaluates its gun laws, training for violent threats has become a grisly yet commonplace reality in K-12 schools. More than 40 states require schools to prepare students to react when a campus comes under attack. Nearly every student in America experiences at least one or more of these drills a year, even though their effectiveness has been hotly debated by state legislators, school staffers, safety experts, and parents.About 98% of public schools taught students lockdown procedures before the pandemic, according to the National Center for Education Statistics. The reasons for them are clear: The 2020-21 school year saw 93 school shootings with casualties, the highest number in two decades,according to the NCES. While school shootings are rare, they have devastating consequences.But the preparations for these events also can come with a price. “The literal tauma caused just by them is horrifying,” Giampaolo said.Anxiety, stress, and depression increased 39%-42% in K-12 students following lockdown drills, according to a study published in December in the journal Nature that examined social media posts. The drills, especially those that involve simulations, heightened students’ fear around the possibility of a shooting and made them feel unsafe in school. The more realistic the drill, the more fear they provoked. Students like Giampaolo who have special needs, and those who have experienced previous trauma, are among the most affected, according to safety experts.At least one state is taking a step toward balancing school safety and student health. To minimize trauma to participants, new Texas regulations require schools to ensure that drills don’t simulate shootings — a change that comes just one semester after a gunman killed 19 students and two teachers in Uvalde.

Lawyers Prepare To Sue Any State That Requires COVID-19 Vaccination To Attend School - Any state that requires COVID-19 vaccination to attend school will face a lawsuit, lawyers said this week. The Informed Consent Action Network (ICAN), run by TV host Del Bigtree, has pledged to finance up to 50 lawsuits, Aaron Siri, who frequently represents the group, said.“ICAN has told us it will financially support a challenge against any state. So, if all 50 states require it to attend school, ICAN will support challenging the mandate in every single one of those states,” Siri told The Epoch Times.The process would require finding parents or others who want to challenge any mandate that arises, but the funding and legal representation for such suits are in place. The pledge comes after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) advisory panel on Oct. 20 recommended adding COVID-19 vaccines to the child and adolescent immunization schedules.The CDC still has to accept the recommendation, but is expected to do so given its stance on vaccines throughout the pandemic. The agency did not respond to a request for comment.Some states require most vaccines on the immunization schedules for school and daycare attendance, including Virginia, though none require annual influenza vaccines for school attendance, according to Immunize.org.Some governors and gubernatorial hopefuls have vowed to block COVID-19 vaccine mandates for children, including the governors of Florida, Colorado, Tennessee, and Virginia. Other states are expected to mandate the vaccines, including California.

The economic threat in declining college education rates – Catherine Rampell - It’s become somewhat unfashionable to say this, but: We actually need more people going to, and ultimately graduating from, college.Enrollment in higher education is plummeting, and K-12 students are falling behind on key skills needed to succeed in college and later in life. The issue is broader than dismal new reading and math scores for youths. These trends threaten our future workforce and, ultimately, the U.S. economy. New preliminary data from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center shows that college enrollment has nosedived in recent years. From fall 2019 (the last full semester pre-pandemic) through fall 2022, undergraduate enrollment declined more than 7 percent; for freshmen alone, it tanked more than 10 percent.Graduate enrollment is up a bit over this period, about 2 percent. But when it comes to quickly moving Americans into the middle class, trends in undergraduate enrollment (especially for associate’s degrees) arguably matter more.Worryingly, the biggest declines in enrollment the past few years have been in these programs. More detailed spring semester data show that community college enrollment dropped nearly 17 percent from 2020 to 2022.What’s happening? Usually when the economy is bad, higher education does well, and vice versa. Enrollment last peaked in 2010, for instance, in the wake of the financial crisis. When job opportunities are scarce, people seek shelter in the higher education system, where they can upgrade their skills and hopefully make themselves more marketable. In the pandemic recession, though, people avoided college even though unemployment was sky-high — presumably because the traditional college experience became less attractive while schools were largely remote.As the country began reopening and hiring like mad, higher education still didn’t look terribly enticing. Nominal wages rose sharply in jobs that didn’t require much formal education (retail, restaurants, hotels). For many, the calculation appears to have been: Why return to the classroom, given other options? Some people have cheered these trends. For a long time on the right, and more recently on the left, it’s become increasingly popular to claim that college is a scam. Schools take students for suckers, critics say, and usually leave them with debt they’ll never be able to repay. It is true that some people, particularly those who don’t complete their degrees, struggle with loans they will never pay back. Worse, some institutions knowingly recruit students into programs that don’t pay off or that have abysmally low completion rates. We can all cheer if those schools lose students. Personally, I think the government should stop subsidizing low-performing institutions with federal grants and loans, so that potential students get a clearer signal to stay away. But for the typical student, at the typical school, college does pay off.

Colleges brace themselves for SCOTUS loss on race-conscious admissions - American colleges have had the Supreme Court’s blessing for more than four decades to factor race into their admissions processes — and now they’re preparing for a future without it. Students for Fair Admissions, led by longtime affirmative action opponent Edward Blum, is challenging race-conscious admissions practices before the high court on Monday in two cases against Harvard University and the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Blum’s strategy has come a long way since his failed attempt to get the Supreme Court to side with Abigail Fisher, a white female University of Texas at Austin applicant who believed she was denied because of her race. Affirmative action in higher education has endured by relying on moderate justices like Sandra Day O’Connor, only to see the court remade by Donald Trump and Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). The need for negotiation is over on an issue that sharply divides Chief Justice John Roberts from the liberal justices, particularly Sonia Sotomayor. And striking the policies down could also open up broader legal attacks on the use of affirmative action in employment. Blum’s group, which says it represents about 20,000 students, has asked the high court to overturn its ruling in Grutter v. Bollinger, a 2003 landmark decision that held colleges can consider race and use holistic reviews as long as their affirmative action programs are narrowly tailored. It’s a move education and civil rights groups fear will exacerbate inequality for years to come. They point to race-neutral college admission policies in California, Michigan and other states where the practice is banned and diversity has declined. A race-blind admissions standard, they say, fails to take into account discrimination and other barriers Black and brown students often face. Abigail Fisher and Edward Blum walk alongside eachother outside the Supreme Court.

 Americans die younger in states with conservative policies: study - Americans die younger in states with more conservative policies, while states with more liberal policies are associated with lower mortality rates, according to a new study published Wednesday in the scientific journal PLOS One.Researchers analyzed mortality rates for all causes of death in all 50 states from 1999 to 2019 among adults aged 25 to 64. They compared that to state data on policy measures such as gun safety, labor, marijuana policy, economic taxes and tobacco taxes.According to their simulation, if all states had switched to fully liberal policies, then 171,030 lives would have been saved in 2019.If all states had switched to fully conservative policies, that could have cost an additional 217,635 lives, according to the study.Researchers wrote the data is “striking” because modern U.S. society is becoming hyperpolarized and involves “growing policy divergence across states.”“These tectonic political and policy shifts may have had profound impacts on health and wellbeing,” the authors noted.Currently, Republicans control 46 percent of states in the U.S., while Democrats control 29 percent, with 12 states divided between legislative and executive control.The U.S. already rates among the highest mortality rates compared to other developed countries.With an average life expectancy of roughly 78 years, Americans die more than five years younger than Japanese people and more than two years younger than British people.“Mortality rates provide another sobering picture of the early deaths among so many individuals in the United States,” researchers wrote in the new study. “Based on rates from 2019, for every 100 babies born in the United States, two will not survive to their 30th birthday, six will not reach age 50, and 16 will die before they can enjoy retirement at age 65.”

COVID-19 tied to higher risk of deadly blood clots, large study finds - COVID-19 at any level of severity is linked to an increased risk of dangerous blood clots that start in patients’ veins and travel to the heart, lungs and other parts of the body, according to a U.K. study that highlights the pandemic’s role in driving up rates of cardiovascular disease. Nonhospitalized COVID-19 patients were 2.7 times more likely to develop dangerous clots called venous thromboembolisms and were more than 10 times more likely to die than individuals who avoided the disease, scientists at Queen Mary University of London found in a study of almost 54,000 people followed for an average of about 4½ months. The increase in risk was highest in the first 30 days after the disease began, but could remain elevated even longer, the researchers said.

Cancer therapy shows potential to treat severe COVID-19 in pre-clinical trials - An article published in Science Advances suggests that a type of cancer treatment known as immune checkpoint blockade may be beneficial in certain cases of severe COVID-19. The creators of this therapy, which can successfully activate the immune system to fight cancer, won the 2018 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine. The findings reported by the authors were based on experiments involving cells from patients treated in intensive care units (ICUs) after being infected by SARS-CoV-2, and mice infected by MHV-A59 (murine hepatitis virus A59), another betacoronavirus. "PD-1 blockade is one of the known immune checkpoint therapies and one of the therapies we analyzed in the study. It tells T lymphocytes [a type of white blood cell] to stop responding to infection after a time so that the response is not excessive. In cases of cancer, sepsis and severe COVID-19, however, PD-1 makes T cells stop functioning even before the disease has been resolved and must therefore be blocked," said Pedro Moraes-Vieira, one of the leaders of the study. "These are very expensive treatments, but we believe it could be a viable option because there aren't as many critical patients as there were at the start of the pandemic, provided further research confirms that it's safe for COVID-19 patients," Moraes-Vieira said. The hypothesis tested in the study arose when Uruguayan researchers (co-authors of the article) observed that mice that did not express the protein TMEM176D responded more acutely to infection by MHV-A59. This protein regulates inflammasomes, protein complexes deployed by the innate immune system to trigger inflammation as a weapon against tumors, viruses and bacteria. [...] In the trials involving mice, treatment with a PD-1 inhibitor restored T cell functionality. In addition, the researchers had access to blood from healthy donors and COVID-19 patients hospitalized at two institutions in Montevideo, Uruguay's capital. Experiments involving healthy cells infected with SARS-CoV-2 were conducted at UNICAMP's Laboratory of Emerging Virus Studies (LEVE) headed by Professor José Luiz Proença Módena, a co-author of the article In trials involving human blood samples, only cells that came from patients in intensive care benefited from the administration of atezolizumab, a PD-1 inhibitor used in the study. This was because of inflammasome overactivation leading to exhaustion and dysfunction of adaptive immunity in these patients.

Newer coronavirus subvariants ticking up in California amid concerns of winter wave -- Amid concerns about a potential winter COVID-19 wave, cases linked to newer coronavirus subvariants are starting to creep up in California as officials in both Los Angeles County and the San Francisco Bay Area warn that a lengthy decline in new infections appears to be stalling.Whether this trend in coronavirus cases can be blamed on the rise of the newer strains is unclear — especially since the Omicron subvariant BA.5 remains the dominant version nationwide, as has been the case for months.But officials have long warned that any new subvariant could imperil the progress against COVID-19, either by being inherently more infectious or better able to evade protection from vaccinations or previous infections.The latest generation of alphanumerically designated Omicron subvariants may have such an advantage, even over the hyper-infectious BA.5.BA.5 "appears to be gradually accounting for fewer sequenced specimens, indicating that other variants could become more dominant in the future," according to Los Angeles County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer.The erosion of BA.5's dominance has been slow but steady. Such changes "could indicate the beginning of a growth advantage by some of the other strains," Ferrer said Thursday during a weekly briefing.According to the latest data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, BA.5 accounts for an estimated 62% of all new coronavirus cases nationwide. However, that share has fallen markedly from mid-August, when it was thought to be behind more than 86% of cases.In the southwestern U.S., which includes California, Arizona, Nevada, Hawaii and the U.S. Pacific territories, BA.5 remains more common, accounting for an estimated 72% of all new cases during the latest analysis period.A few other Omicron subvariants also have risen in prominence. BQ.1.1, which some officials have pointed to as a potentially problematic strain, went from an estimated 0.2% of cases nationwide in mid-September to 7.2% this month. During that same time, BQ.1 has swelled its estimated share from 0.5% to 9.4%, while BF.7 — also known as BA.5.2.1.7 — has increased from 1.9% to 6.7%.In L.A. County, data from the week ending Oct. 1 also point to a decline in BA.5's dominance and new subvariants making up an increasing share of cases.But while BQ.1 and BQ.1.1, both descendants of BA.5, are gaining ground nationwide, only a handful of such cases have been documented in L.A. County. Seven have been attributed to BQ.1 and three to BQ.1.1.Another Omicron subvariant, BA.2.75.2, represents only 0.2% of cases per week in L.A. County, a rate that has been stable for three weeks. L.A. County also has not reported any cases of the XBB subvariant that has been spreading in Singapore, according to Ferrer.Some researchers in China have found evidence that XBB "can evade antibody protections developed after BA.5 infection. We don't yet know the full implications of this," Ferrer said."Some of these mutations make it easier to evade prior immunity, meaning that many of us can be reinfected even if we were previously infected with a strain of Omicron earlier this year," she added.

New COVID-19 Subvariants Are Spreading Fast -Over the course of the pandemic, scientists have observed the COVID-19coronavirus evolving. While some new variants and subvariants disappear, others spread.Using multiple surveillance systems, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) closely tracks new mutations and has identified two of particular concern: BQ.1 and BQ.1.1. The CDC refers to these BA.5 offshoots as “grandchildren of BA.5.”In the middle of September, the two BQ mutations together accounted for just over half a percent of infections in the United States. That proportion has rapidly increased. Now, data from the CDC’s COVID Data Tracker for the week ending October 22 show BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 make up more than 16 percent of cases in the United States.Meanwhile, BA.5 has dropped from almost 90 percent of infections in August to just over 62 percent. BA.4.6 currently accounts for 11 percent, and 6.7 percent of cases are BF.7.Anthony Fauci, MD, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told CBS News, “When you get variants like that [BQ.1 and BQ.1.1], you look at what their rate of increase is as a relative proportion of the variants, and this has a pretty troublesome doubling time.”The European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) forecasts BQ.1 and its sublineage BQ1.1 will become the dominant coronavirus strains in Europe by mid-November to the beginning of December 2022. Almost 1 in 5 cases in France are now attributed to a BQ variant.In the United States, COVID-19 infections have been on a downward trend recently. The CDC estimates that as of October 19, the current 21-day average of weekly new cases (39,803) has decreased nearly 31 percent compared with the previous 21-day moving average (57,564).Bernadette Boden-Albala, MPH, DrPH, director and founding dean of the program in public health at the University of California in Irvine, warns that the new subvariants — along with more group gatherings indoors as winter nears and low booster vaccination rates — could threaten to reverse this nationwide decline in infections and potentially increase the amount of hospitalizations and deaths.“The subvariants we have experienced to date are derived from the omicron lineage, so it appears to cause less severe disease, but the difference is that they have a mutation in the receptor binding domain that allows it to pass through our primary line of immune defense,” says Dr. Boden-Albala. “You may feel the symptoms of COVID-19 much faster after exposure. Going forward, the hope is that new variants will also be associated with less severe disease, but it’s not a guarantee.” Scientists are currently evaluating the effectiveness of the new bivalent booster vaccines against these new subvariants. The bivalent shots were designed to protect against BA.5 and BA.4 omicron subvariants as well as the original coronavirus.According to CBS, Dr. Fauci said that since BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 are both related to BA.5, the new booster shots will “almost certainly” provide some cross protection.“However, data from individuals with breakthrough BA.5 infection suggest that the bivalent boosters will be less effective against these new variants compared to BA.5,” says Benjamin Pinsky, MD, medical director of the clinical virology laboratory for Stanford Health Care and Stanford Children’s Health in California.

A new, stealthy coronavirus variant is spreading fast, spooking scientists and Wall Street analysts, but experts say there is cause for optimism - As Halloween approaches, murmurs of another "nightmare" COVID variant on the way are spooking reporters and Wall Street analysts alike. The new variant is called XBB, and it's already triggering a new wave of infections and hospitalizations in some south Asian countries, including India and Singapore. XBB is just one of "multiple more-immune evasive Omicron subvariants on the rise around the world," infectious disease expert Dr. Celine Gounder, a Senior Fellow at the Kaiser Family Foundation, told Insider. But "among the new variants, XBB has the most significant immune evasion properties," market forecasters at Morgan Stanley said Thursday in a memo. Given that we've now seen nearly three full years of COVID variants — and nearly a year of different Omicrons before XBB emerged from them — how worried, really, should we be about this new version of the virus? Experts say we should expect many more infections this fall and winter, including infections in vaccinated, boosted Americans. XBB is a recombinant variant – meaning that it's a combination of two other BA.2 Omicron subvariants (specifically, BA.2.10.1 + BA.2.75). Like other Omicrons we've seen before, XBB is "finding ways to evade the way we get immunity from vaccines and previous infection, with changes on the spike protein," UC Berkeley infectious disease expert John Swartzberg told the San Francisco Chronicle. It remains to be seen whether XBB will actually dominate the landscape of US COVID infections this winter, or whether it'll just be one option among the wide buffet of Omicron subvariants. So far, it's not even making a dent on the radar of US virus watchers, compared to other Omicrons. It's possible that the BA.5 subvariant, BQ.1.1., which is already on the rise in Europe, may turn out to be more of a concern for Americans than XBB ever will. Professor Moritz Gerstung, a computational biologist in Germany, said recently on Twitter that we might be in for a "tight race" between BQ.1.1 and XBB for the next few months. Both have a slight growth advantage over BA.5, which is the dominant version of COVID right now in the US. In Singapore, reinfections and hospitalizations are both up, driven by XBB — though local trends suggest that this version of the virus may also be somewhat milder than BA.5, with a 30% lower risk of hospitalization. Both XBB and BQ.1.1 are also showing resistance to monoclonal antibodies, a treatment used for COVID patients. That is why Gounder insists that, whatever happens next, "it's really important for those at the highest risk, including people 50 and over, and people who are immunocompromised, to get boosted right away if they haven't already been this fall." Remember: this is still Omicron, and the new boosts from Pfizer and Moderna target BA.4 and BA.5, which are related to XBB. That means existing vaccines should still "protect against severe disease, hospitalization, and death," Gounder said. "But I expect a lot of breakthrough infections despite vaccination" in the coming winter months, she added, whether that's with XBB, or some other evasive new variant.

BQ.1, BQ.1.1 Variants, Resistant to Some COVID Treatments, Continue to Gain Ground in U.S. – -The BA.5 subvariant of COVID-19 remains the dominant strain in the United States this week, but several other new forms of the virus are gaining ground, and physicians warn that some treatments against the illness may not be effective against them. According to the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, BA.5 is making up approximately 62.2% of COVID cases in the U.S. That subvariant has been the dominant strain of COVID since early July, but it’s rapidly declining as other strains take hold.While the BA.4.6 subvariant is still the second-most prevalent at 11.3%, several descendants of BA.5 are rapidly gaining round. According to the CDC, BQ.1 is now responsible for 9.4% of cases, while BQ.1.1 is responsible for an estimated 7.2% of cases.These numbers are causing some concern in the medical community, as the National Institutes of Health warns that some emerging subvariants could be resistant to monoclonal antibodies, robbing physicians of a key tool in pushing back against COVID. BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 are likely to be resistant to the bebtelovimab treatment, while BF.7 is also likely to be resistant to tixagevimab and cilgavimab. Both BQ.1 and BQ.1.1, as well as BA.4.6, could also be resistant to the latter two treatments. The aforementioned monoclonal antibodies are recommended by the CDC for use when Paxlovid or remdesivir cannot be safely prescribed to nonhospitalized adults who are at high risk of severe COVID infection.

'Scrabble variants' now cause the majority of new Covid-19 infections in the US - The Omicron BA.5 subvariant is no longer the dominant cause of Covid-19 infections in the United States, according to estimates released Friday by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Instead, a host of new sublineages – offshoots of BA.2, BA.4 and BA.5 – are now responsible for the majority of new infections in this country. Dr. Peter Hotez, director of the Center for Vaccine Development at Texas Children’s Hospital, calls these many new lineages “Scrabble variants” because they contain letters like X and Q that get high scores in the game. The new variants descend from slightly different branches of the Omicron family tree, but they have evolved to share some of the same changes in their genomes that help them slip past our immunity against the virus. The gaggle of new variants have been gaining ground against BA.5, which has dominated Covid-19 infections in the United States since July. BA.5 now accounts for 49.6% of new infections in this country. Two variants, BQ.1 and BQ.1.1, have been growing especially fast. At the beginning of October, each one accounted for about 1% of new infections in the United States, but they have been roughly doubling in prevalence each week. Together, they now account for more than 1 in 4 new Covid-19 infections nationwide, according to CDC data. BQ.1 is causing about 14% of new infections; BQ.1.1. is causing 13% of new infections. BA.4.6 is causing another 10%. BF.7 accounts for 7.5% of newly diagnosed Covid-19. A slew of other new variants accounts for smaller pieces of the Covid-19 pie. These variants are not evenly distributed across the US. BQ.1.1 is now causing about 1 in 5 new Covid-19 infections in the Northeast, where cases and hospitalizations are rising. But that strain is causing just 3% of new Covid-19 infections in the Pacific Northwest. These variants are slightly different from each other, but they all carry some of the same key mutations that help them skirt immunity from vaccines and past infections. This makes them more likely to lead to breakthrough infections and reinfections.

COVID ‘variant soup’ is making winter surges hard to predict - Some call it a swarm of variants — others refer to it as variant soup. Whatever it’s called, the current crop of immunity-dodging offshoots of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 is unprecedented in its diversity. This complexity makes it harder to predict coming waves of infection. It might even lead to a ‘double wave’ in some places, as first one variant and then another overtakes a population. But amid the chaos, patterns are emerging. The swarm has helped scientists to pinpoint a handful of immunity-evading mutations that power a variant’s spread. Globally, a few heavyweight variants have emerged, yielding different outcomes in different regions — at least, so far. In Europe, North America and Africa, the prevalence of Omicron offshoots in the BQ.1 family is rising quickly, even as overall cases seem to fall. In Asian countries including Singapore, Bangladesh and India, a lineage called XBB has already set off fresh waves of infection. Scientists are closely watching several regions where both are circulating, to see which has the edge. “In the end, probably, some variants are going to dominate, but it’s less decisive than it was in the past,” says Cornelius Roemer, a computational biologist at the University of Basel in Switzerland. The variants that have driven past waves, such as Alpha and Delta, all arose from distinct branches of the SARS-CoV-2 family tree. But since Omicron emerged in late 2021, it has spawned a series of subvariants, including BA.2 and BA.5, that have sparked global waves of infection. Many countries put their BA.5-led surges in the rear-view mirror in mid-2022, but most scientists thought it was only a matter of time before another sublineage came to the fore. For the past few months, variant trackers have been combing through global SARS-CoV-2 sequencing data to identify candidates. But instead of one or two fast-rising lineages, they have identified more than a dozen to watch. Growing family: Illustration of the SARS-CoV-2 family tree from origin to the Omicron variant soup. Source: Nextstrain “It’s a collection or swarm or soup of variants together — not as we have seen before,” says Yunlong Richard Cao, an immunologist at Peking University in Beijing, whose team has been studying the variants’ immune-evading capacities. The members of the swarm come from various parts of the Omicron family tree. But their rise seems to be due to a handful of shared genetic mutations, most of which lead to amino acid changes in a portion of the viral spike protein called the receptor binding domain (RBD). This part of the protein is required to infect cells, and is the target of antibodies that deliver a potent immune response. Work from Cao’s team this month1 suggests that the RBD mutations help the virus to evade infection-blocking ‘neutralizing’ antibodies that were triggered by COVID-19 vaccines and infection with earlier Omicron offshoots, including BA.2 and BA.5. (That work has not yet been peer reviewed.)

Scientists Fear BQ.1 COVID Variants Are Deadly—Just Like 2020 - The most recent COVID variants have been more contagious but less deadly. Early evidence suggests the new mutations could be much more dangerous and drive hospitalizations back up. The new COVID-19 subvariants that are becoming dominant all over the world aren’t just more contagious than previous variants and subvariants—they might cause more severe disease, too. That’s an ominous sign if, as experts predict, there’s a new global wave of COVID in the coming months. It’s one thing to weather a surge in infections that mostly results in mild disease. Cases go up but hospitalizations and deaths don’t. But a surge in serious disease could lead to a surge in hospitalizations and deaths, too. It could be like 2020 or 2021, all over again. The big difference is that we now have easy access to safe and effective vaccines. And the vaccines still work, even against the new subvariants. A new study from The Ohio State University is the first red flag. A team led by Shan-Lu Liu, co-director of HSU’s Viruses and Emerging Pathogens Program, modeled new SARS-CoV-2 subvariants including BQ.1 and its close cousin,BQ.1.1. The team confirmed what we already knew: BQ.1 and other new subvariants, most of them the offspring of the BA.4 and BA.5 forms of the Omicron variant, are highly contagious. And the same mutations that make them so transmissible also make them unrecognizable to the antibodies produced by monoclonal therapies, rendering those therapies useless. That should be reason enough to pay close attention as BQ.1 and its cousins outcompete BA.4 and BA.5 and become dominant in more countries and states. But then Liu and his teammates also checked the subvariants’ “fusogenicity.” That is, how well they fuse to our own cells. “Fusion between viral and cellular membrane is an important step of viral entry,” Liu told The Daily Beast. In general, the greater the fusogenicity, the more severe the disease. Liu and his colleagues “observed increased cell-cell fusion in several new Omicron subvariants compared to their respective parental subvariants,” they wrote in their study, which appeared online on Oct. 20 and is still under peer review at New England Journal of Medicine.

CDC, In Yet Another Data Debacle, Fails to Protect You by Butchering Reveal of Covid “Escape” Variant BQ.1* - by Lambert Strether - CDC, and the public health establishment generally, promote a paradigm of “personal risk assessment” that will enable you to “live with” Covid. Implicit in that social contract is that CDC will provide the necessary data for you to make the assessment; obviously, an individual isn’t going to be personally tracking case counts, or new variants, or dipping into their local wastewater to run tests. Leaving aside the viciously neoliberal and eugenic[1] character of the paradigm, CDC is also failing to uphold its end of the bargain (and not for the first time). In this post, I’ll examine CDC’s latest betrayal: Its failure to alert the public to a rapidly doubling new variant, BQ.1.* (BQ.1.* includes both BQ.1 and BQ.1.1.) First, I’ll establish that BQ.1.* is a variant that you should be concerned about. Next, I’ll look at the timeline that shows CDC’s failure to warn. Next, I will do a post mortem on whether CDC’s latest betrayal is attribute to persons (“malevolence”) or institutions (“operational incapacity”). Finally, I’ll look into CDC’s operational incapacity more deeply. BQ.1.* is a dangerous variant. It is characterized by rapid doubling time. From Reuters: U.S. health regulators on Friday estimated that BQ.1 and closely related BQ.1.1 accounted for 16.6% of coronavirus variants in the country, nearly doubling from last week, while Europe expects them to become the dominant variants in a month. “These variants (BQ.1 and BQ.1.1) can quite possibly lead to a very bad surge of illness this winter in the U.S. as it’s already starting to happen in Europe and the UK,” Here is a chart that shows doubling time since the beginning of the pandemic: As you can see, even a week is a long time when the virus is getting rolling. BQ.1.* is immune evasive (that is, previous infection does not protect from a second infection). From Fortune: BQ.1.1 is thought to be the most immune-evasive new variant, according to Dr. Eric Topol, a professor of molecular medicine at Scripps Research and founder and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute. BQ.1.1’s extreme immune evasiveness “sets it up to be the principal driver of the next U.S. wave in the weeks ahead,” Topol tweeted Friday. “It’s not going to wipe out vaccine efficacy, but it could but a dent in protection against hospitalizations and death,” he said. Next, BQ.1.* renders some treatments obsolete. Fortune again: BQ.1.1 is already known to escape antibody immunity, rendering useless monoclonal antibody treatments used in high-risk individuals with COVID. According to a study last month out of Peking University’s Biomedical Pioneering Innovation Center in China,BQ.1.1 escapes immunity from Bebtelovimab, the last monoclonal antibody drug effective on all variants, as well as Evusheld, which works on some. Along with variants CA.1 and XBB, BQ.1.1 could lead to more severe symptoms, the authors wrote. Finally, New York City is under the gun. From Becker’s Hospital Review: Statewide, the daily average for COVID-19 hospitalizations is up 15 percent over the last two weeks, according to HHS data compiled by The New York Times. As of Oct. 20, an average of 3,095 people were hospitalized in New York. On Oct. 2, that figure was 2,614. The increase in hospitalization rates comes as a pair of omicron relatives dubbed “escape variants” gain prevalence nationwide. The strains — BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 — are most prevalent in New York and New Jersey, where they account for nearly 30 percent of new infections, according to CDC estimates for the week ending Oct. 22. BQ.1’s rising prevalence may be driving the jump in hospitalizations, but scientists say it’s still too early to confirm a causal relationship. While hospitalizations appear to be trending upward in New York, cases have remained relatively flat throughout the month.Here is the timeline for CDC’s “reveal” of BQ.1.*.[2] From Fierce Healthcare (and kudos to them for explaining so clearly a story that has yet to appear in [genuflects] the Times or the Post): The highly infectious and evasive BQ.1.1 variant not only has a foothold in the U.S., it may have established that foothold weeks ago. The data on the variant have prompted the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to redo previous weeks’ variants tracking charts. The charts below tell the story. The left shows the first version of CDC tracking data for the week ending Oct. 8, where BQ.1.1 (and its cousin, BQ.1) don’t even appear. The CDC had grouped those data under the BA.5 label, which has been the most dominant subvariant of omicron since early July. So, the doubling behavior of BQ.1.* was hidden by being aggregated with the declining BA.5’s data. At some point after October 8, CDC disaggregated them, and BQ.1.* became visible. Being as charitable as possible to CDC, it got the data out a week late (October 15, not October 8), but as I point out above, a week is too slow. However, the “update” came one day after epidemiologist Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding tweeted these same data, which he noted were leaked to him from a “CDC-insider source” which informed him that the CDC had been sitting on this crucial information regarding the state of the variants in the US. After Feigl-Ding’s tweet went viral, garnering over 10,000 likes and over 5,000 retweets within hours, the CDC was forced to release the data publicly.

The CDC is now tracking a new immune-evasive Omicron variant spiking in Ukraine that’s evading treatment - A new COVID variant is on the radar of U.S. health officials. BA.5.2.6—a spinoff of still-U.S.-dominant Omicron variant BA.5—is spiking in Ukraine, and it has so far shown itself to be capable of evading hospital COVID treatments. The strain was added to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s variant tracker Friday. It accounts for just 2.8% of cases in the U.S., according to agency data, coming in sixth this week. But in Ukraine, it has reached levels as high as 10%, according todata from GISAID—an international research organization that tracks changes in COVID and the flu virus. That makes it a leading emerging variant in Europe. Most U.S. cases of the newly tracked variant are located in the Northeast: It represents an estimated 5.5% of cases in Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont combined, according to the CDC. Humanitarian conditions in Ukraine are poor owing to the invasion launched by Russia in February, and ripe for disease spread. Sick individuals in hostile areas can’t seek treatment. Some medical facilities have been destroyed, and health care supplies and personnel are difficult to come by. Crowding in bomb shelters during air strikes and artillery fire contributes to disease spread, according to an April report from the United Nations. Adding insult to injury, COVID testing is not performed in occupied areas. Diagnosis data that is recorded is transmitted by phone, when connections are available. Thus, recorded cases are unreliable, and represent only a sixth of likely cases, according to the report. Case counts can also vary wildly from week to week. Ukraine saw a record-high 79,325 cases on Oct. 17 of last year, but had reported only 60 new cases as of Friday, according to data from the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine. BA.5.2.6 has appeared in other parts of Europe. It represents nearly 2% of cases in England, where other BA.5 relatives are dominant. And it accounts for nearly 1.5% of casesin nearby France, where BQ-family variants are seeing success, along with BA.5-family variants. Trackers are eyeing the relatively new strain, identified in August, owing to its documented ability to evade antibody immunity, and spread more efficiently than other Omicron variants BA.4 and BA.5, which were dominant globally this summer. This one renders IV antibody treatment Evusheld—usually administered to high-risk patients in a hospital setting—useless, according to a Sept. 27 article in The Lancet Infectious Diseases. It also reduced the efficacy of all other monoclonal antibody treatments approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration except for one, according to the article.

WHO advisers weigh in on Omicron XBB and BQ.1 subvariants | CIDRAP - After meeting earlier this week to review Omicron developments, the World Health Organization (WHO) SARS-CoV-2 virus evolution advisory group held off on designating XBB and BQ.1 sublineages as variants of concern. In an announcement yesterday, the group said it will reassess the situation regularly. The group's announcement comes as BQ.1 proportions are rapidly rising in Europe and the United States. The WHO advisory group said XBB and BQ.1 don't currently diverge sufficiently from each other or from other Omicron lineages that have extra immune escape mutations to warrant a variant of concern designation or a new label. "The two sublineages remain part of Omicron, which continues to be a variant of concern," the group said. So far, XBB—a recombinant of the BA.2.10.1 and BA.2.75 subvariants—has been detected in 35 countries and has a 1.3% global prevalence. The group said XBB hasn't been consistently linked with an increase in new infections, but they added that early evidence suggests a higher reinfection risk, especially to people infected before the Omicron variant began circulating. XBB's potential to drive new infection waves might depend on both the size and timing of earlier Omicron waves and COVID-19 vaccine coverage. BQ.1 is a BA.5 subvariant, and BQ.1.1 has an additional spike mutation at a key antigenic site. Between them, 65 countries have detected the viruses, which have a 6% global prevalence. The WHO group said BQ.1 viruses have a growth advantage over other Omicron lineages in many settings, including Europe and the United States, which requires close monitoring and may pose a greater reinfection risk. So far, there is no evidence of an increase in disease severity with either XBB or BQ.1 viruses.  see TAG-VE statement on Omicron sublineages BQ.1 and XBB

Covid symptoms differ based on vaccination status: ZOE Health Study - Covid infections come with dozens of different potential symptoms, ranging from mild fatigue to strange ones like "Covid tongue."Which ones will you personally experience if you get infected soon? It depends on your vaccination status, suggests the ZOE Health Study, a joint project between health science company ZOE and researchers from King's College London, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard and Stanford University.The project recently shared an updated list of the top Covid symptoms reported by the more than 4 million users of the ZOE Covid Study app, which has tracked virus symptoms based on daily user-entered data since 2020.Here are the Covid symptoms most commonly reported among three vaccination groups — people who completed their primary series, people with one shot from a two-dose vaccine and those who are unvaccinated — ranked by how often they were reported. […]Four of the five most commonly reported symptoms, including sore throat, runny nose, persistent cough and headache, appeared across all three groups — but their prevalence varied. Unvaccinated people more commonly experienced fevers, which didn't appear in the other groups' top five symptoms.But your vaccination status could affect how many of those symptoms you experience simultaneously. People who completed their primary series or got one vaccine dose reported fewer symptoms over a "shorter period of time" compared to unvaccinated people, the study said.In a 2021 study by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, participants with one or two Covid vaccine doses had about a 60% lower risk of developing symptoms like fever compared to unvaccinated people. Vaccinated participants spent on average two to six fewer total sick days in bed compared to unvaccinated ones, the study also found. The ZOE study pointed to one common finding across all three groups: a noticeable decline in "traditional" Covid symptoms from the virus' initial strain, like shortness of breath and loss of smell.Shortness of breath ranked as the 29th most common symptom among those who completed their primary series, and 30th among those who are unvaccinated.Omicron may have something to do with that: Other research has found that the newer variant is less likely than previous Covid strains to cause symptoms like a loss of taste or smell.The ZOE study did not account for which Covid variant caused the infections, how many infections were first-time Covid experiences, whether a user received booster doses, patient demographic information and the severity of people's symptoms.

Shanghai starts administering inhalable COVID-19 vaccine --East China's Shanghai has started administering an inhalable COVID-19 vaccine as a booster dose from Wednesday, according to the Information Office of Shanghai Municipality. Developed by Chinese company CanSino Biologics, the aerosolized adenovirus type-5 vector-based COVID-19 vaccine (Ad5-nCoV) provides a non-invasive option. It uses a nebulizer to change liquid into aerosol for inhalation through the mouth, according to the company. The company said on its official WeChat account that the vaccine can "effectively induce comprehensive immune protection in response to SARS-CoV-2 after just one breath." It can "induce strong humoral, cellular and mucosal immunity to achieve triple protection," the company added. Compared with intramuscular injection, the inhalable vaccine requires only one-fifth of its dosage. It can only be used as a booster dose for now, and adults aged 18 years and above can choose this vaccine as an alternative.

Long-COVID post-viral chronic fatigue and affective symptoms are associated with oxidative damage, lowered antioxidant defenses and inflammation: a proof of concept and mechanism study | Molecular Psychiatry - Abstract: The immune-inflammatory response during the acute phase of COVID-19, as assessed using peak body temperature (PBT) and peripheral oxygen saturation (SpO2), predicts the severity of chronic fatigue, depression and anxiety symptoms 3–4 months later. The present study was performed to examine the effects of SpO2 and PBT during acute infection on immune, oxidative and nitrosative stress (IO&NS) pathways and neuropsychiatric symptoms of Long COVID. This study assayed SpO2 and PBT during acute COVID-19, and C-reactive protein (CRP), malondialdehyde (MDA), protein carbonyls (PCs), myeloperoxidase (MPO), nitric oxide (NO), zinc, and glutathione peroxidase (Gpx) in 120 Long COVID individuals and 36 controls. Cluster analysis showed that 31.7% of the Long COVID patients had severe abnormalities in SpO2, body temperature, increased oxidative toxicity (OSTOX) and lowered antioxidant defenses (ANTIOX), and increased total Hamilton Depression (HAMD) and Anxiety (HAMA) and Fibromylagia-Fatigue (FF) scores. Around 60% of the variance in the neuropsychiatric symptoms of Long COVID (a factor extracted from HAMD, HAMA and FF scores) was explained by OSTOX/ANTIOX ratio, PBT and SpO2. Increased PBT predicted increased CRP and lowered ANTIOX and zinc levels, while lowered SpO2 predicted lowered Gpx and increased NO production. Lowered SpO2 strongly predicts OSTOX/ANTIOX during Long COVID. In conclusion, the impact of acute COVID-19 on the symptoms of Long COVID is partly mediated by OSTOX/ANTIOX, especially lowered Gpx and zinc, increased MPO and NO production and lipid peroxidation-associated aldehyde formation. The results suggest that post-viral somatic and mental symptoms have a neuroimmune and neuro-oxidative origin.

 XBB variant, spreading fast in Singapore, detected in Tokyo | The Japan Times - - Six cases of the highly transmissible coronavirus variant XBB have been detected in Tokyo, according to the metropolitan government’s COVID-19 infection monitoring committee. XBB — a virus formed from a combination of the omicron subvariants BA.2.75 and BA.2 — was first reported by Singapore in September and has since been confirmed in 35 countries.

 Flu season has hit 13-year record in US, CDC reports - The flu is hitting the US hard, with 880,000 cases of lab-confirmed influenza illness, 6,900 hospitalisations, and 360 flu-related deaths recorded in the nation this year.According to the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, the last year there was a comparable flu "burden" was 2009 during the H1N1 swine flu pandemic. The flu burden is a metric used by the CDC to determine the severity of the flu.“It’s unusual, but we’re coming out of an unusual covid pandemic that has really affected influenza and other respiratory viruses that are circulating,”Lynnette Brammer, an epidemiologist who heads the CDC’s domestic influenza surveillance team, told The Washington Post. The extent of the extant infections is unusual considering the flu season generally begins in October.

 Dr. Ashish Jha: U.S. facing Covid, flu, RSV 'tripledemic' this winter -Covid isn't the only viral threat facing the U.S. this coming winter. A "tripledemic" also involving flu and RSV may soon unfold, says Dr. Ashish Jha.But there's good news: "We're not powerless against it," Jha, the White House's Covid response coordinator, said in a Tuesday interview with CBS News.Covid has been a prominent winter threat during the last two years and is expected to wreak havoc again this year, especially with the emergence of so-called "Scrabble" variants that appear adept at evading immunity from vaccines and prior infection.The U.S. is also seeing an early uptick in flu cases, which don't typically rise until late December. The country's South Central and Southeastern regions already have positivity rates as high as 10%, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) cases, especially among children, are also rising. Nearly 75% of the country's estimated 40,000 pediatric beds are currently full, according to the latest Department of Health and Human Services data. Jha pointed to the widely available vaccines targeting two of the three respiratory viruses: the flu shot and the new omicron-specific Covid booster.He called on Americans to get both shots, saying it'll keep them out of hospitals and ensure that the U.S.'s "healthcare capacity doesn't start getting stretched" while grappling with multiple emerging winter threats."If people went out and got their vaccines, we could really get through this without getting into a lot of trouble," Jha said.There's currently no vaccine for RSV, but getting a flu shot and a new Covid booster will lower your risk of being admitted to a hospital for severe illness, Jha noted. A 2018 CDC-supported study found that flu vaccination among adults reduced the risk of being admitted to an ICU with the flu by 82%.Early data also suggests that the new omicron-specific Covid boosters raise your protective antibodies, which can help prevent a more severe course of infection.Getting those shots is the key to combatting all three viruses because it'll help keep hospital beds open for potential patients across the country, Jha added."We need hospitals for all sorts of things, not just those viruses," he said. "So right now, our focus is get people vaccinated, get people treated and keep people out of the hospital."

RSV and other viruses strain US children’s hospitals, filling up pediatric beds - Children’s hospitals in many parts of the US are straining under the weight of unusually high numbers of children infected with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and other respiratory viruses. Thirty-six states and the District of Columbia are currently experiencing this spike, with 71 percent of US pediatric beds full across the country, the highest occupancy levels seen by hospitals in two years. Nearly three-quarters of pediatric beds are now occupied, according to data from the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), although the agency does not specify the reason for hospitalization. This compares to about two-thirds of pediatric hospital beds being full on an average day over the past two years. More than 94 percent of pediatric beds are occupied in Rhode Island, Delaware and Washington D.C., while Maine, Arizona, Texas, Kentucky, Oklahoma and Missouri report 85 to 90 percent of beds occupied. Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is limited to facilities that report such data, meaning that the situation is likely more dire than official figures. RSV began surging in late summer, months before its typical season, which runs from November to early spring. According to the CDC, the US has been reporting about 5,000 cases per week. This is on par with last year, but far higher than October 2020, in the first autumn of the coronavirus. This surge in cases is especially troubling given the threat of a surge in COVID-19 cases in the coming fall and winter months and the elimination of virtually all mitigation measures to fight the deadly virus. Other viruses contributing to the bed emergency include parainfluenza, adenovirus and human metapneumovirus. Jesse Hackell, chair of the committee on practice and ambulatory medicine for the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP), told the Washington Post, “It’s very hard to find a bed in a children’s hospital—specifically an intensive care unit bed for a kid with bad pneumonia or bad RSV because they are so full.”

Flu and RSV viruses found to fuse together to form hybrid viruses - A team of researchers at the University of Glasgow has found that when placed together in human tissue, the influenza virus A and the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) can fuse together, forming a hybrid virus. In their paper published in the journal Nature Microbiology, the group describes how they conducted experiments that involved mixing different types of viruses in Petri dishes containing human lung cells and what they found by doing so. Prior research has shown that the influenza virus tends to infect the windpipe, throat and nose, resulting in flu-associated symptoms. RSV infections, on the other hand, tend to infect cells in the throat and lungs. As cases of RSV have been rising as the flu season approaches in the Western hemisphere this year, the researchers wondered what happens to people who are unfortunate enough to be infected by both viruses at the same time. In their work, the researchers placed lung cells in a Petri dish and then added samples of both viruses. They then stood back and watched to see what would happen. They found that after infecting the cells the two types of viruses fused into a hybrid virus. The result was a virus that was shaped somewhat like a palm tree where the RSV virus formed the trunk and the influenza virus formed the leafy part at the top. In taking a closer look at the hybrid, the researchers found that it was capable of infecting other nearby cells. They also found that when they did so, antibodies that arrived to fight the flu infection did not work as they usually would. This was because the hybrid had infected some of the cells with RSV proteins. Though they have not verified it yet, the researchers suspect the hybrid is likely more able to infect a wider type of cells than either of the viruses alone. They also note that such infections could potentially lead to serious lung infections because RSV viruses tend to travel deeper into the lungs. The researchers plan to continue their study of the hybrid virus, looking first to determine if it can form inside of the human body. They also want to know if other types of hybrid viruses are forming when people are infected with more than one virus.

2 Dead With Monkeypox In NYC As Officials Rename 'Stigmatizing' Disease - New York City announced two monkeypox-linked deaths on Friday, the first fatalities connected to the disease in the five boroughs, NBC New York reports. Aside from reporting that the individuals were " immunocompromised" and had "underlying health conditions," few details were made public, as officials instead offered condolences in a brief statement. In total, there have now been four monkeypox-linked deaths in the US since the outbreak began, with the first fatality reported in California in September. As of Oct. 17, the city has recorded at least 3,695 known cases of the virus. Since reaching its peak at the end of July, the outbreak of cases in New York City has dropped significantly, down to single-digit daily numbers by the beginning of this month. To date, more than 143,000 first and second doses of the monkeypox vaccine have been administered. -NBC NY NYC Health Department officials also debuted a new name for monkeypox this week, claiming that the term was 'stigmatizing' - though we would note that it only seems to be left-leaning politicians making this claim. The new name? MPV "The previous name is an inaccurate and stigmatizing label for a virus that is primarily affecting a community that has already suffered a long history of bigotry," said the health department, providing no examples. "Stigma is a shadow affliction that can follow viruses and drive people away from care, even when the illness itself is treatable," the city continued. "The Department requested the World Health Organization change the name, and continues to urge global health authorities to make this modification universal."

Dove, Other Unilever Dry Shampoos Recalled Over Cancer Risk -- Unilever Plc recalled popular brands of aerosol dry shampoo, including Dove, after discovering they were contaminated with a chemical called benzene that can cause cancer. The recall also covers brands such as Nexxus, Suave, Tresemmé and Tigi, which makes Rockaholic and Bed Head dry shampoos, according to anotice posted on the Food and Drug Administration’s website Friday. Unilever’s recall pertains to products made prior to October 2021. The move once again raises questions about the safety of aerosols in personal-care products. In the past year and a half, a number of aerosol sunscreens have been pulled from shelves, such as Johnson & Johnson’s Neutrogena, Edgewell Personal Care Co.’s Banana Boat and Beiersdorf AG’s Coppertone along with spray-on antiperspirants likeProcter & Gamble Co.’s Secret and Old Spice and Unilever’s Suave. The recalls were set off by findings of benzene in such products by an analytical lab called Valisure, based in New Haven, Connecticut, starting in May 2021.

Inversions trap pollution in Allegheny County this fall, despite new rule - Johnie Perryman is 79 years old and lives in Clairton, near U.S. Steel’s Clairton Coke Works, and when the air gets bad in Clairton, he can feel it in his chest. “I can smell it inside of my house. And not only can I smell it inside of my house, it wakes me up, my heart starts palpitating, starts beating and I wake up and I put a mask on,” he said. That rotten egg smell that is seeping inside Perryman’s house is hydrogen sulfide from the Coke Works. The plant is the state’s largest source of hydrogen sulfide, and the county has found the plant is ‘entirely’ responsible for the county’s hydrogen sulfide problem. Since the weather turned colder this October, levels of hydrogen sulfide and soot have surged in Allegheny County. Hydrogen sulfide levels measured at the county’s Liberty-Clairton air monitor have exceeded state standards a dozen times already this month, according to data compiled by the Group Against Smog and Pollution. Those surges have been brought on by strong temperature inversions – a weather pattern that traps pollution close to the ground. Albert Presto, associate research professor of mechanical engineering at Carnegie Mellon University, says inversions happen when the air near the ground cools off – typically on a clear, crisp night. When that happens, a warm layer above the ground keeps pollution close to the ground. “You can think of it exactly as a lid, and that lid can go up and can go down,” Presto said. When the lid is lowered, the more air pollution stays on the ground. Presto said the problem is worse in mill towns like Clairton along the Monongahela River, with lots of industrial pollution. “Especially in the Mon River Valley, there are a bunch of (pollution) sources, it’s already at the bottom of the valley, and then you put this inversion on top, and so you’re going to get really high concentrations (of pollution) there,” he said. Last year, Allegheny County passed a new rule that was supposed to remedy the problem. It allowed the health department to make big polluters in the Mon Valley follow a set of plans to lower emissions during inversions. For U.S. Steel, that means limiting production at Clairton by extending coking times. Then on October 10, an inversion was forecast. The county issued a watch – basically an alert – but no warning, which would have made companies implement their plans to cut pollution. Geoff Rabinowitz, the county health department’s deputy director of environmental health, said the county only calls for a warning if air problems are forecast to last more than 24 hours

Fossil fuel addiction killing millions, worsening climate crisis — report - Fossil fuel "addiction" is rapidly worsening climate change as the related effects of extreme weather leave 98 million people facing severe food insecurity and heat-related deaths surge, a new report warns. The burning of fossil fuels including coal, oil and natural gas that cause toxic air pollution kills some 11,800 Americans and about 1.2 million people globally every year, according to the report, published in the medical journal The Lancet Tuesday ahead of next month'sUN Cop27 climate summit in Egypt. The annual Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change report examined 103 countries and found that the global land area impacted by extreme drought — like the one gripping much of the U.S. West — had grown by 29% in the past 50 years.Heat-related deaths jumped 68% between 2017-2021, compared to 2000-2004, as exposure to days of very-high or extremely-high fire dangerrose in 61% of countries from 2001–2004 to 2018–2021, the University College London-led study found. Heat exposure led to 470 billion potential labour hours lost globally in 2021, disproportionately affecting low- and middle-income countries and worsening the impact of the cost-of-living crisis.Global warming is leading to the spread of infectious diseases, per the report — which involved 99 researchers from 51 institutions, including the World Health Organization and the World Meteorological OrganizationMalaria transmission rose 32.1% in highland areas of the Americas and 14.9% in Africa in 2012-2021, compared to the 1950s. Jeni Miller, executive director of the Global Climate and Health Alliance, said in an emailed statement accompanying the report that "fossil fuel-driven climate change is reducing family incomes due to heat waves that impact worker productivity." It's also "aggravating food insecurity through diminished crop yields" and the "worst impacts of fossil fuel-driven climate change are being felt by developing countries — those least responsible for having caused it." Meanwhile, the carbon intensity of the global energy system, the biggest single contributing sector to global greenhouse gas emissions, has dropped by less than 1% from 1992 levels, according to the report. Researchers found 69 out of the 86 governments analyzed in the report subsidized fossil fuels at a collective cost of $400 billion in 2019 Governments "have so far failed to provide the smaller sum of $100 billion per year to help support climate action in lower income countries," the study noted. "The world is edging closer to multiple tipping points that, once crossed, will drive temperatures well above 2°C ... current global actions are insufficient," the researchers warn in a linked editorial published in The Lancet. "The climate crisis is killing us," said United Nations Secretary-General, António Guterres in a statement responding to the report, as he called for "common-sense investments in renewable energy."

Racial disparities beset EPA, state wastewater funds - As the federal government injects a historic amount of money from the bipartisan infrastructure law into the nation’s sewage and drinking water systems, research shows the money has not historically reached the underserved rural and minority communities that need it most. A new analysis of EPA’s Clean Water State Revolving Fund released today shows communities with fewer people and those with larger communities of color have received less federal assistance for upgrading wastewater treatment plants and stormwater management systems during the past decade. “Many of the state policies that caused these inequities are still in place, so the billions of federal dollars now streaming into states from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law may not make it to communities that have been shut out, unless we reform the [Clean Water State Revolving Fund] to make it more effective for all,” said Rebecca Hammer, deputy director for federal water policy at the Natural Resources Defense Council and a co-author of the report. The research shines a bright light on the challenges the Biden administration faces in pushing through an aggressive agenda to tackle environmental justice and upgrade deteriorating, underfunded wastewater and drinking water systems across the nation, many of them located in underserved communities facing the brunt of climate change. Some of those systems are the source of crises that have cropped up across the nation, from the drinking water woes that have plagued Jackson, Miss., in recent weeks, to dysfunctional sanitation systems in the South’s Black Belt and in remote Alaskan villages. NRDC, which co-authored the report with the Environmental Policy Innovation Center, or EPIC, discovered the inequities after analyzing awards that states made from 2011 to 2022 under the Clean Water State Revolving Fund program and comparing characteristics of the communities that received money and those that did not, said Hammer. The groups did not analyze the amounts of money awarded. The report found that municipalities with larger white populations were more likely to receive assistance under the Clean Water State Revolving Fund, and that municipalities with larger populations had a greater likelihood of receiving assistance, indicating that state agencies may not be adequately helping small communities access funding. But the research also showed that states are more likely to direct funds to lower-income areas with more Clean Water Act violations — findings that are consistent with the program’s goal of investing resources in communities that need help upgrading infrastructure and coming into legal compliance, according to the report. The report arrives on the heels of Congress appropriating more than $23 billion to the Clean Water and Drinking Water state revolving funds under the infrastructure package. While EPA in recent weeks has begun awarding the money to cities and states across the nation, the agency is waiting for states to submit plans for how they intend to prioritize the money in so-called intended use plans.

Study shows hazardous herbicide chemical goes airborne - "Dicamba drift"—the movement of the herbicide dicamba off crops through the atmosphere—can result in unintentional damage to neighboring plants. To prevent dicamba drift, other chemicals, typically amines, are mixed with dicamba to "lock" it in place and prevent it from volatilizing, or turning into a vapor that more easily moves in the atmosphere. Now, new research from the lab of Kimberly Parker, an assistant professor of energy, environmental and chemical engineering at Washington University in St. Louis' McKelvey School of Engineering, has shed new light on this story by demonstrating for the first time that these amines themselves volatilize, often more than dicamba itself. Their findings were published Sept. 23 in the journal Environmental Science and Technology. The volatilization of amines when applied with dicamba may help explain the processes that cause dicamba drift. However, amines are used in other herbicides as well, including as glyphosate, the most-used herbicide in the world. Regardless of the herbicide, the researchers found that amines still volatilized. If amines, themselves, are released into the atmosphere, they can have a negative impact on human health as they can form cancer-promoting substances. They also affect the climate and atmospheric chemistry. Because of their potential danger and prevalence, the scientific literature is full of research looking at the ways they are released into the atmosphere—except when it comes to their use in herbicide-amine formulations. "Amines also undergo reactions to form particulate matter—tiny particles that can make their way into the body when inhaled," Parker said. "Those particles are also toxic and carcinogenic," and they carry consequences for atmospheric chemistry by affecting climate. "Researchers have looked at industrial applications, animal operations and environmental sources of amines, but no one has looked at herbicides at all, as far as we have seen, despite the fact that large quantities of herbicide-amine mixtures are being sprayed onto crops across the country," Parker said.

Mexico moves closer to a devastating policy for US agricultural exports -Mexico is set to phase out the herbicide glyphosate and all biotech corn for human consumption by the beginning of 2024. U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack says he has been “reassured” by his Mexican counterpart that the ban won’t hurt U.S. corn exports — but that’s little comfort to domestic growers who are watching the health regulator in Mexico, their largest export market, exercise an apparent bias against the herbicide and seed varieties used in the United States for the past several decades.The move coincides with efforts by Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador to boost corn production of relatively small Mexican farms. Both U.S. farmers and Mexico’s poorest consumers stand to lose out.Congress has long had its eye on the looming clash with Mexico over biotech exports. In a letter last year, 76 members from both parties urged President Biden to “prioritize US agricultural biotechnology competitiveness” in talks with Mexico City and to “use the enforcement tools provided to you in the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement to secure fair treatment for American agricultural producers and rural communities.”Farmers in the United States and around the world use glyphosate (often known by the brand name Roundup) to kill weeds before planting corn feed for livestock, and to speed the harvest of some grain and other crops. If you are a homeowner, chances are it is also in some of your lawn and gardening care products. The Environmental Protection Agency has found “no risks of concern to human health when glyphosate is used in accordance with its current label.” U.S. corn growers have been using biotech seed varieties since the 1990s to control damaging insects and improve weed control. Notwithstanding, some European countries cite health and ecosystem concerns when contemplating import bans on biotech corn, while others characterize such concerns as veiled protectionism.

Study provides comprehensive review of devastating fall armyworm pest - A CABI-led study involving 57 scientists from 46 different institutions has provided a comprehensive review of the devastating fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda) including details on its invasiveness, biology, ecology and management. The research, published in the journal Entomologia Generalis, highlights how fall armyworm (FAW) is serious pest of several crops—particularly maize and other cereals—and has already invaded most of Africa and parts of the Middle East, Asia, and Australasia in the last six years. FAW feeds on and develops on the leaves, stems, and reproductive parts of over 350 plant species, primarily Poaceae, causing serious economic damage to key food crops (e.g., maize, sorghum, rice, soybean) and fiber crops (e.g., cotton). It originates from tropical and subtropical areas of the Americas. The review states that, according to Eschen et al. (2021), FAW causes estimated annual yield losses of USD 9.4 billion in Africa alone. It adds that the recent invasion of FAW in developing countries also has an important impact on household income and food security. For example, Tambo et al. (2021) showed that households affected by FAW in Zimbabwe had a lower per capita income and were 12% more likely to experience hunger compared to unaffected households. It is suggested in the study that some FAW can fly continuously for 48 hours and that it could migrate to Japan and the Korean Peninsula by crossing the sea from China during the Meiyu season. The scientists believe that the potential for FAW to invade the tropical Pacific Islands depends on the wind patterns in the archipelagos (Monsoon storms, trade winds, cyclones, and hurricanes) and trade contamination patterns. Once established in an archipelago, it may be able to spread relatively easily between islands, they say. Spread and impact As part of a series of recommendations, the researchers highlight that while the spread of FAW has been mapped using various models, for temperate countries in Europe, Asia and Oceania, it will be important to model the seasonal spread and impact of migrating populations. They also add that in order to build meaningful Integrated Pest Management (IPM) strategies, it will be helpful to better understand the relationship between FAW infestation, leaf damage, ear damage and yield loss. This is particularly important, it is suggested, in terms of how these relationships vary with crop stage and agroecological conditions—including the abundance and efficacy of natural enemies. With this in mind, the scientists argue that classical biological control through the importation of parasitoids from the Americas should be considered even though FAW is a pest also in the Americas and many natural enemies have been found in the invaded regions. Other recommendations include social studies on the impact of chemical insecticides on farmer health and the well-being of farming communities are also urgently required, especially in poorer developing countries where farmers rarely use protective clothing.

First-ever study shows bumble bees 'play' - (video) Bumble bees play, according to new research led by Queen Mary University of London published in Animal Behaviour. It is the first time that object play behavior has been shown in an insect, adding to mounting evidence that bees may experience positive "feelings." The team of researchers set up numerous experiments to test their hypothesis, which showed that bumble bees went out of their way to roll wooden balls repeatedly despite there being no apparent incentive for doing so. The study also found that younger bees rolled more balls than older bees, mirroring human behavior of young children and other juvenile mammals and birds being the most playful, and that male bees rolled them for longer than their female counterparts. The study followed 45 bumble bees in an arena and gave them the options of walking through an unobstructed path to reach a feeding area or deviating from this path into the areas with wooden balls. Individual bees rolled balls between 1 and, impressively, 117 times over the experiment. The repeated behavior suggested that ball-rolling was rewarding. This was supported by a further experiment where another 42 bees were given access to two colored chambers, one always containing movable balls and one without any objects. When tested and given a choice between the two chambers, neither containing balls, bees showed a preference for the color of the chamber previously associated with the wooden balls. The set-up of the experiments removed any notion that the bees were moving the balls for any greater purpose other than play. Rolling balls did not contribute to survival strategies, such as gaining food, clearing clutter, or mating and was done under stress-free conditions.

Biden admin picks up pace on Endangered Species Act rewrite - The Biden administration could be done with its rewrite of Trump-era Endangered Species Act rules by May 2024, an official noted in an update for a federal judge overseeing a crucial legal challenge. Samuel Rauch III, NOAA Fisheries’ deputy assistant administrator for regulatory affairs, stated that he had previously estimated the final ESA rule changes could be published two years after the judge rules on the lawsuit, first filed in 2019. Now, he says definitively that the final rule changes could be done by May 2024. “Since my [earlier estimate] was filed, the Services have been further examining and clarifying an anticipated timeline for a rulemaking to propose revisions to the 2019 rules,” Rauch wrote in the administration’s most recent legal filing. NOAA Fisheries and the Fish and Wildlife Service are jointly working on the revised ESA rules, which cover complex issues including the designation of critical habitat and different protection levels for threatened as opposed to endangered species. At the same time, Rauch cautioned in his declaration filed Oct. 14 in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California that the “anticipated timeline may need to be lengthened” depending on the judge’s future rulings. The immediate legal question is not whether the Trump ESA rules will change. The Biden administration has already committed to making changes. Rather, the question is what happens to the Trump rules in the meantime. In July, U.S. District Judge Jon Tigar sided with the environmentalists and vacated Trump’s ESA rule changes, meaning they would no longer be in effect while the Biden administration undertakes its revisions (E&E News PM, July 5). “Here, the Services themselves concede that they have substantial concerns with the 2019 ESA Rules, both with respect to certain substantive provisions as well as certain procedures that were utilized in promulgating these regulatory revisions,” Tigar wrote. An Obama administration appointee, Tigar noted that the agencies’ chief argument was that vacating the rules would cause confusion among the public, other agencies and stakeholders. “But, as the Services themselves explain many times, leaving the regulations in place will cause equal or greater confusion, given the flaws in the drafting and promulgation of those regulations,” Tigar wrote. Thirteen conservative-led states, the American Farm Bureau Federation, the American Petroleum Institute and other intervenors then asked the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals to keep the Trump rules in effect until a final ruling on an appeal.

Fishermen face shutdowns as warming hurts species - Fishing regulators and the seafood industry are grappling with the possibility that some once-profitable species that have declined with climate change might not come back. Several marketable species harvested by U.S. fishermen are the subject of quota cuts, seasonal closures and other restrictions as populations have fallen and waters have warmed. In some instances, such as the groundfishing industry for species like flounder in the Northeast, the changing environment has made it harder for fish to recover from years of overfishing that already taxed the population. Officials in Alaska have canceled the fall Bristol Bay red king crab harvest and winter snow crab harvest, dealing a blow to the Bering Sea crab industry that is sometimes worth more than $200 million a year, as populations have declined in the face of warming waters. The Atlantic cod fishery, once the lifeblood industry of New England, is now essentially shuttered. But even with depleted populations imperiled by climate change, it's rare for regulators to completely shut down a fishery, as they're considering doing for New England shrimp. The Northern shrimp, once a seafood delicacy, has been subject to a fishing moratorium since 2014. Scientists believe warming waters are wiping out their populations and they won't be coming back. So the regulatory Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission is now considering making that moratorium permanent, essentially ending the centuries-old harvest of the shrimp. It's a stark siren for several species caught by U.S. fishermen that regulators say are on the brink. Others include softshell clams, winter flounder, Alaskan snow crabs and Chinook salmon. Exactly how many fisheries are threatened principally by warming waters is difficult to say, but additional cutbacks and closures are likely in the future as climate change intensifies, said Malin Pinsky, director of the graduate program in ecology and evolution at Rutgers University. While it's unclear whether climate change has ever been the dominant factor in permanently shutting down a U.S. fishery, global warming is a key reason several once-robust fisheries are in increasingly poor shape and subject to more aggressive regulation in recent years. Warming temperatures introduce new predators, cause species to shift their center of population northward, or make it harder for them to grow to maturity, scientists said. In the case of the Northern shrimp, scientists and regulators said at a meeting in August that the population has not rebounded after nearly a decade of no commercial fishing. The shrimp prefer cold temperatures, yet the Gulf of Maine is warming faster than most of the world's oceans. Scientists say warming waters have also moved new predators into the gulf. Another jeopardized species is winter flounder, once highly sought by southern New England fishermen. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has described the fish as "significantly below target population levels" on Georges Bank, a key fishing ground. Scientists with University of Rhode Island and Rhode Island Department of Environmental Management wrote that the fish have struggled to reach maturity "due to increased predation related to warming winters" in a report last year. On the West Coast, Chinook salmon face an extinction risk due to climate change, NOAA has reported. Drought has worsened the fish's prospects in California, at the southern end of its range, scientists have said. Fishermen on the East Coast, from Virginia to Maine, have dug softshell clams from tidal mud for centuries, and they're a staple of seafood restaurants. But the clam harvest fell from about 3.5 million pounds (1.6 million kilograms) in 2010 to 2.1 million pounds (950,000 kilograms) in 2020 as the industry has contended with an aging workforce and increasing competition from predators such as crabs and worms. Scientists have linked the growing predator threat to warming waters.

Mississippi River water levels plummet to historic lows due to drought - The nation’s mightiest, most mythical waterway has been strangled by months of dry conditions, which have sent water levels plummeting to historic lows. For weeks now, that slow-moving crisis has made it difficult, if not impossible, to move barges down a river that serves as a highway for about 60 percent of the nation’s foreign-bound corn and soybeans. The result is a season of uncertainty for many up and down the river who depend on it for their livelihoods, from farmers growing crops to the tugboat pilots who steer barges toward the Gulf of Mexico and back. The deep worries over the crippled supply chain have mingled with the sheer curiosity of people who have flocked to the banks of the Mississippi to marvel at a sight few can ever recall.Aerial images and meteorological data help to illustrate how dire the situation has become: Sandbars line a narrowing river channel, the result of scant precipitation and parched soils across the Missouri River Valley to the west and the Ohio River Basin to the east.Historically, the winding river was marked by a wide flood plain that would swell during wetter years, while drier years would leave pools and deeper spots throughout the waterway, said Olivia Dorothy, upper Mississippi basin director for the advocacy group American Rivers. But the river has since been altered by dams, levees and other structures, and engineered to maintain a central channel that carries barge traffic that is key to commerce along the Mississippi. But the river has become so dry, that central channel is about all that is flowing in some places these days.Levels have sunk so low that many boat ramps don’t stretch down far enough to reach the water. Docks that usually float with ease sit tilted and grounded on riverbanks. Stretches of the river have transformed into a marvel of drought, attracting onlookers to spots such as a dead-end road outside Portageville. Low water levels have exposed a century-old shipwreck and made it easy for visitors to reachTower Rock, a prominent rock formation south of St. Louis that’s normally an island, on foot.At the Memphis Yacht Club, where dozens of boats sit atop the mud, general manager Joe Weiss has so much free time on his hands, he finds himself hauling out an array of long-forgotten items the drought has revealed on the river floor: grills, umbrellas, tables, chairs, a fire extinguisher, and on and on. In this part of the country, rising waters are usually a bigger concern — the last major floods hit in 2019, while just this summer, deadly flash flooding hit nearby parts of Missouri and Kentucky. But now it faces an ominously dry long-term forecast.

Before and after: See how the Mississippi River and its tributaries have dropped to record lows - Photos and satellite imagery from the central United States show how the region’s worst drought in at least a decade has pushed the Mississippi River and its tributaries to drop to record lows this month.. Across the river basin, dozens of gauges have fallen below their low-water threshold. The Mississippi River was at historically low levels from Illinois to Louisiana this week, and many of these gauges will continue to see decreasing water levels as the forecast remains stubbornly dry. Drone video of the Mississippi River near Memphis shows how far the mighty river has contracted away from its banks. The river dropped to minus-10.75 feet there earlier this week, according to data from the National Weather Service, which was the lowest level ever recorded in Memphis. Drought expanded again this week across the Midwest and South, according to the US Drought Monitor. Half of the contiguous US is covered by moderate or worse drought conditions – the third-highest value of the year so far and the highest since March. More than 134 million people are affected by drought conditions, the monitor reports, which is the highest percent population since 2016. The Midwest has seen the worst deterioration, with the amount of area covered in drought increasing by an area of about 60,000 square miles, which is equivalent to the size of Georgia. “Topsoil moisture continues to dry out across portions of the Ohio Valley and the Corn Belt,” the Drought Tracker reported on Thursday, adding that “deeper soil moisture remains very low also across much of the Mississippi Valley.” The dry conditions have taken a severe toll not only on the Mississippi but the rivers that flow into it. Before-and-after satellite imagery from the National Weather Service shows how rivers have receded from their banks between July 14 and October 17.

How Low Can It Go? Mississippi River at Memphis Breaks Another Record - Water levels continue to fall on the Mississippi and Ohio rivers, severely affecting navigation in ways not seen since 1988, noted American Commercial Barge Lines (ACBL). "The industry is incurring catastrophic impacts to boat capacity, which will in turn drastically decrease ton-mile productivity for the inland rivers," ACBL stated. According to the National Weather Service observed water levels, the Mississippi River at Memphis, Tennessee, broke its recent new record low of -10.75 feet reached at 7 p.m. Oct. 17, by reaching -10.80 feet at 3 a.m. Oct. 22 and then at 5 a.m., it broke its new record, hitting -10.81 feet. The previous low record was -10.70 on July 10, 1988. ACBL noted the industry reduced Lower Mississippi River drafts to 9'0" on Oct. 17 both north and southbound, reflecting a 24% to 30% reduction to tons per barge versus normal conditions. "ACBL liquid drafts have been reduced to 8'6" as of Oct. 17, reflecting approximately 17% reduction to tons per barge versus normal conditions. Industry has agreed to a 25-barge max tow size SBD, reflecting a 17-38% reduction to boat capacity." That means shippers continue to pay the same price for a barge regardless of how much is loaded in it. Hence, dead freight is incurred by the shipper. Dead freight is the amount of money paid by the shipper who is unable to load a full barge. On top of that, shippers in some spots on the river can't even load out a barge right now because the water is too low to get a barge on station. Cash basis has reflected these issues, weakening at river terminals with conditions just mentioned. Farmers are in the midst of harvest, and many have been left looking for a new home to dump their grain at or keep it on their farm stored in grain bids or bags. The bottom line is that higher freight costs and lack of space at terminals are absorbed by farmers in the weaker spot basis bids if they need to sell. Tom Russell, Russell Marine Group, reported the following updates as of Sunday, Oct. 23, noting that traffic is moving slowly everywhere, usually one-way traffic and operating during daylight hours only: Upper Miss-St Louis to Cairo: Traffic is moving with intermittent dredging stoppages. Ohio River near Cairo: Water levels were dropping low enough whereby boats could no longer operate. Water released from a reservoir helped to stabilize water and keep traffic moving. Traffic is moving slowly through Cairo. Barge fleets in Cairo are extremely congested or in some areas, inoperable due to low water. Lower Miss-Cairo to New Orleans: New problem areas pop up on a regular basis. Memphis (M750) to Vicksburg (M437) have had the most problems. Going into the past weekend, there were five closures from M921 to M529. As of Sunday, Oct. 23, all closures have been reopened except for the latest closure at M529 that occurred Saturday, Oct. 22. Mile 529 is currently closed to all traffic while water depth surveys are being conducted. "The system needs 40-60 days of usual rainfall to replenish," said Russell. "At this point every little bit will certainly help. The ability to navigate tows is literally determined on a day-to-day basis." Besides disruptions to barge traffic, cities along the river that rely on a strong flow for water supplies are experiencing problems as well. In New Orleans, the slow flow of the Mississippi River has caused salt water from the Gulf to move upriver. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, New Orleans District, began construction of an underwater sill on Oct. 11, 2022, across the bed of the Mississippi River channel to prevent further upriver progression of salt water from the Gulf of Mexico. "Currently, the greatest risk associated with the saltwater intrusion is the appearance of unsafe salinity levels at the intakes of municipal drinking water intakes in Plaquemines Parish. Additionally, the U.S. Coast Guard has issued navigation restrictions around the sill construction site from river mile 63.5 to 64," said the USACE New Orleans District. At Cairo, Illinois, water levels are below what is considered to be low stage. On Oct. 18, the Tennessee Valley Authority said on their Facebook page, "To help stabilize commercial navigation conditions on the lower Ohio and Mississippi rivers, we are scheduling special water releases from Kentucky Dam on the Tennessee River and Barkley Dam on the Cumberland River to help low river level impacts." On Oct. 21, TVA said, "We continue to provide a steady flow of water from the Kentucky Dam on the Tennessee River and Barkley Dam on the Cumberland River because of low river levels on the lower Ohio River and the Mississippi River near Cairo, Illinois, and to aid commercial barge traffic. "Kentucky and Barkley Lakes are forecast to remain in the normal operating range for this time of year between 354'-355'." Just prior to the first announcement from the TVA, Illinois American Water said in an Oct. 15 press release, that, in order to help support continued reliable water service in the Cairo area, it was temporarily changing its source water from the Ohio River to groundwater due to historic low river levels.

Months of Precipitation Needed to Restore Major River Levels as Drought Persists -- With many of the major river systems running at all-time low levels in some areas of the country, the main question being asked is how much rain would it take to replenish the Mississippi, Ohio and Missouri rivers? In recent weeks we've seen barge traffic stalled in parts of the Mississippi and Ohio rivers, and newly announced water releases in Tennessee, with little chance of significant precipitation in the affected areas for the foreseeable future. The falling river levels come at a time when farmers are harvesting grain and shipping to market, raising questions about what it all means for agriculture. Jeffrey Graschel, service coordination hydrologist at the National Weather Service's Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center, said the current water levels in the Mississippi have hit hardest from Cairo, Illinois, to Memphis, Tennessee, where record low levels were set this year, breaking records from 1988. The drought of 1988 to 1990 is considered to be the worst in U.S. history, outside of the Dust Bowl, covering about 45% of the country at one point with total damages ranging from $80 billion to $120 billion. In the Dust Bowl, 70% of the country was in drought. On Saturday, the National Weather Service observed water levels on the Mississippi River at Memphis, Tennessee, set a record of minus 10.81 feet. Negative river measurements are below the agreed upon zero-level gauge. From Memphis to New Orleans, Graschel said, water levels are as low as they've been since 2012. "It is hard to compare records from the 1800s, early 1900s because of levees, channel improvements and addition of dams which make stage levels different from the modern era," he said. "Below New Orleans, a saltwater wedge has moved upstream along the bottom channel, requiring the USACE (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers) to build a low-water sill to impede the salt-water wedge. Several municipalities use the Mississippi River for their water supply and too much salt can make it unusable, thus the need for a low-water sill." The Corps of Engineers dredges low areas and the U.S. Geological Service uses buoys to mark the navigation channel to help with traffic. "We currently don't see any improvements through early November," Graschel told DTN. "We typically have low-water conditions every 10 to 12 years."

Declining Ogallala Aquifer Prompts Test to Transfer Water From Missouri River - A western Kansas groundwater district is testing the theory that the Missouri River could be tapped to help deal with the declining Ogallala Aquifer by trucking 6,000 gallons of water roughly 400 miles to parched areas of Kansas and Colorado. Mark Rude, district manager for Groundwater Management District 3 (GMD 3) in Garden City, Kansas, told DTN in an interview the project is a "proof-of-concept" idea to test the feasibility of larger water transfers from the Missouri River to western Kansas. The Kansas water district is partnering with the Central Colorado Water Conservancy District and each district will use 3,000 gallons to help recharge a couple of small areas. The project would basically fill a typical 12-foot radius plastic storage tank. Rude said GMD 3 had started a few years ago with a truckload of water from the Missouri River to release it into the dry riverbed of the Arkansas River. It took just a few minutes for that water to soak into the riverbed. The goal, however, was to understand the various agencies involved in getting a permit. That's essentially the same scenario here. "We've looked at all kinds of ideas and continue to do that, but this was just a very simple partnering concept," Rude said. "A proof-of-concept project is merely trying to take something academic and make some aspect of it a reality, and in the process, demonstrate or learn some things, and maybe develop some partnerships. That's simply what we're trying to achieve." The Kansas Division of Water Resources had to sign off on the permit to make it happen. The pump doesn't affect the river or banks of the Missouri River, so it doesn't require the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to sign off on it, Rude said. The water will be drawn from an area already approved for diverting water out of the Missouri River for Kansas residents to use. Still, Rude said the project required getting boxes checked regarding endangered species as well as another permit to ensure it would not lead to nuisance species. There also needed to be approval from the Kansas Department of Health and Environment on the water quality for releasing the river water into an area that absorbs into the Ogallala Aquifer. Another permit was required by the Department of Agriculture for the water appropriation itself. "Of course, moving a truckload of water by itself is not a practical idea at all," Rude said. "But going through that process is very, very cost-effective if your purpose is to learn, to discover things like what might be the impediments in Kansas policy or staff to things like major water transfers."

U.S. Winter Outlook: Warmer, drier South with ongoing La Nina | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration –- This year La Niña returns for the third consecutive winter, driving warmer-than-average temperatures for the Southwest and along the Gulf Coast and eastern seaboard, according to NOAA’s U.S. Winter Outlook released today by the Climate Prediction Center — a division of the National Weather Service. Starting in December 2022 through February 2023, NOAA predicts drier-than-average conditions across the South with wetter-than-average conditions for areas of the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest. . “NOAA’s new supercomputers are enabling us to develop even better, more detailed forecast capabilities, which we’ll be rolling out in the coming years.” NOAA forecasters, in collaboration with the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), continue to monitor extreme, ongoing drought conditions that have persisted in the Western U.S. since late 2020, as well as parts of the central U.S. where historic low-water conditions are currently present. “Drought conditions are now present across approximately 59% of the country, but parts of the Western U.S and southern Great Plains will continue to be the hardest hit this winter,” said Jon Gottschalck, chief, Operational Prediction Branch, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “With the La Niña climate pattern still in place, drought conditions may also expand to the Gulf Coast.” The U.S. Winter Outlook 2022-2023 map for temperature shows the greatest chances for warmer-than-average conditions in western Alaska, and the Central Great Basin and Southwest extending through the Southern Plains. Below normal temperatures are favored from the Pacific Northwest eastward to the western Great Lakes and the Alaska Panhandle.(NOAA) Temperature

• The greatest chance for warmer-than-average conditions are in western Alaska, and the Central Great Basin and Southwest extending through the Southern Plains.
• Warmer-than-average temperatures are also favored in the Southeastern U.S. and along the Atlantic coast.
• Below-normal temperatures are favored from the Pacific Northwest eastward to the western Great Lakes and the Alaska Panhandle.

The 2022-2023 U.S. Winter Outlook map for precipitation shows wetter-than-average conditions are most likely in western Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Drier-than-average conditions are forecast in portions of California, the Southwest, the southern Rockies, southern Plains, Gulf Coast and much of the Southeast. (NOAA). Precipitation:

• Wetter-than-average conditions are most likely in western Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
• The greatest chances for drier-than-average conditions are forecast in portions of California, the Southwest, the southern Rockies, southern Plains, Gulf Coast and much of the Southeast.
• The remainder of the U.S. falls into the category of equal chances for below-, near-, or above-average seasonal total precipitation.

Wind climate change threatens to bury entire villages under sand -- Climate change could alter wind regimes so much by the end of this century that desert dunes and sand seas may impact human infrastructure, agriculture and homes, finds new study by King's researchers. In a new study published in Nature Climate Change, King's researchers have analyzed future wind regimes to predict the impact of morphing sand dunes. The encroachment of these moving desert dunes has the potential to threaten transportation infrastructure, industry, agriculture and settlements—with the possibility of entire villages disappearing under sand. Desert dunes and sand seas cover approximately 20% of the world's arid zones. Analyzing data on the shape, migration speed and direction of mobile desert dunes around the world, Dr. Andreas Baas and Lucie Delobel from the Department of Geography have used future wind patterns altered by climate change to determine the impact on these changing landscapes. Previous studies on climate change have focused on heat and water to determine the impacts on local environments. However, focusing on wind has allowed the researchers to predict the future consequences of climate change on arid regions such as the Sahara, The Horn of Africa, the Southern Arabian Peninsula, South Asia, China and Australia. "Most climate change studies focus on water, including sea-level rise, glaciers and ice sheets, and much less has been done on changing wind regimes. In many arid countries the impact of changing winds on desert dunes may be more important than things like sea-level rise," says Baas. The study shows that changes in wind patterns will speed up the migration of sand dunes, change the direction of the migration and morph the shape of the dunes, with the potential for desertification of some regions and the release of more dust emissions globally. The recently completed Hotan-Ruoqiang high-speed railway line in China, for example, includes 500 km of track along the southern Taklimakan Desert. The project has already seen US$295 million spent on measures to mitigate sand drift. The changing migration patterns of sand dunes could make these investments obsolete. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region railway projects, worth US$53 billion, would also be affected, along with local road networks. The changing direction of sand drift could see agricultural sites and settlements, previously unaffected, be covered by sand. The changing shape of the dunes could also cause logistical problems for planned transport networks and infrastructure, resulting in further investment on mitigation strategies. Other regions might see dormant dune fields to reactivate, which may trigger regional dust storms and increase dust emissions in the atmosphere globally.

Most children will regularly face extreme heat by 2050, UNICEF says - Catastrophic storms and unforgiving heat waves devastated many parts of the world this year, with Earth experiencing one of its hottest summers on record in 2022.Now, a new report from UNICEF estimates that nearly all the world’s children — more than 2 billion — will be exposed to high heat-wave frequency by 2050. That is about 1.5 billion more children than are exposed now.“The models tell us this is the case, as does empirical lived experience,” Lauren Gifford, a research scientist at the University of Arizona, said in response to the report.She added, “Children now and children who haven’t been born yet are going to exist in the world in very different ways, and some of those ways we can’t even conceive yet.”In the report, UNICEF defines high-frequency areas as those with an average of 4.5 more heat waves per year. It also estimates that “virtually every child on earth” will face more frequent heat waves, even if the world achieves a “low greenhouse gas emission scenario” of about 1.7 degrees Celsius of warming.Across several parts of the world, the unrelenting heat has proved deadly for all age groups this past summer. Britain reported 3,271 excess deathsabove the five-year average during government-issued heat health advisory periods between June and August, for example, while France recorded 13 percent more deaths in July and 11 percent more deaths in August compared with the same months in 2019.Meanwhile, extreme heat has consistently been the United States’ deadliest weather event for at least the last 30 years, according to theNational Weather Service. Last year, a study also found that Africa and Asia had the highest proportion of deaths caused by non-optimal hot and cold temperatures between 2000 and 2019.For children, heat waves pose an acute threat: Young children and infants are more susceptible to heat-related illnesses, in part because their bodies cannot regulate temperature as effectively as adults. Children also lose fluid more quickly and are at a greater risk of heat stroke because they lack the judgment needed to taper their physical exertion or rehydrate.“Children, especially young children, are more vulnerable than adults to the effects of extreme heat, which can cause severe dehydration, respiratory trouble and make them more vulnerable to other diseases,” Catherine Russell, UNICEF’s executive director, said in the report.Extreme heat is also known to trigger symptoms in people with asthma, an ailment that affects about 6 million children in the United States, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Many American public schools do not have air conditioning because of cost burdens — about 41 percent of school districts nationwide need to update or replace heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, the U.S. Government Accountability Office said. Meanwhile, a2020 study has found that hot classroom conditions are linked to reduced test scores and lowered learning, with a disproportionate impact on students of color.“School is for many kids the respite from a hard life, and there are schools where you can’t sit and learn when it’s 100 degrees in the classroom or you can’t be in the building because they’re closing schools,” Gifford said.She added: “Climate change is what we call a threat multiplier. It takes existing hazards and exacerbates them.”

Violent thunderstorms and tornadoes hit France - Strong thunderstorms affected large parts of France on October 23, 2022, producing violent wind gusts and tornadoes. The storms hit after several days of warm weather, exceptional in duration for this time of year, with a depression named Beatrice by the Spanish meteorological service.Thunderstorms moved from the southwest to the northeast. On the Allier, Burgundy, Champagne-Ardenne and Lorraine, the storms produced wind gusts between 70 and 90 km/h (43 – 56 mph).¹The storms were accompanied by very occasional hailstorms, observed from eastern Burgundy to eastern Champagne and in the Meuse.A stormy arc formed along a Sarthe-Manche axis around 14:30 LT, moving northeast. To the south of this arc, two stormy systems intensified as they reached the Eure. The northernmost storm system gave s trong winds responsible for the damage observed shortly after 16:00 LT in the Beuzeville sector in Eure. The second system, forming the southern tip of the stormy arc, took the form of a supercell and caused the formation of tornadoes, between about 17:30 and 18:30 LT, first touching the Conty sector in the Somme, south-west of Amiens, then Bihucourt in the Pas-de-Calais, and north-east of Amiens, causing significant damage.The Bihucourt tornado was estimated as EF-3, with winds between 218 to 266 km/h (136 – 165 mph). The twister left a damage 200 m (656 feet) wide, on a trajectory of at least 25 km (15 miles). Après enquête de terrain, la #tornade de #Bihucourt est classée en catégorie EF3, soit des vents max de 220 à 270 km/h. Le tourbillon a tracé un sillon de dommages large de 200m, sur une trajectoire d'au moins 25 km sur sa seule portion #PasdeCalais. Les enquêtes se poursuivent.pic.twitter.com/J7i2lqnKak

Hurricane “Roslyn” makes landfall in Nayarit, Mexico - (video) Category 3 Hurricane “Roslyn” made landfall in northern Nayarit, west-central Mexico around 11:20 UTC on October 23, 2022, with maximum sustained winds of 195 km/h (120 mph) and a minimum central pressure of 960 hPa. Roslyn is now the strongest eastern Pacific hurricane to make landfall since Hurricane “Patricia” hit Jalisco, Mexico on October 23, 2015 Roslyn brought damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and flooding rains to portions of west-central Mexico.1 Although the hurricane made landfall in a sparsely populated region of Mexico’s Pacific coast, between the resorts of Puerto Vallarta and Mazatlan, it claimed the lives of two people who took shelter in unstable structures that collapsed during the storm. According to the Nayarit state’s Ministry of Security and Citizen Protection, a 74-year-old man was killed in Mexcaltitan de Santiago Ixcuintla when a beam fell on his head while a 39-year-old woman died when a fence collapsed in Nayarit’s Rosamorada district. hurricane roslyn 03z october 23 2022 nhc fcst track Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 150 km/h (90 mph) by 15:00 UTC and to 110 km/h (70 mph) by 18:00 UTC. At the time, the government of Mexico discontinued all warnings south of San Blas and downgraded the Hurricane Warning from San Blas to Escuinapa to a Tropical Storm Warning. By 21:00 UTC, all coastal warnings have been lifted. Roslyn’s remnants are expected to produce up to an additional 25 mm (1 inch) of rain across northeastern Mexico and an additional 25 to 50 mm (1 to 2 inches) of rain across portions of coastal and west-central Mexico. This rainfall could still lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas of rugged terrain.

Four killed as devastating floods hit Australia’s most populous states -For the third time this year, large sections of south-eastern Australia have been hit by devastating floods and extreme weather. While floodwaters are beginning to recede in the worst-affected areas, the risk remains, with heavy rainfall expected to return. Hundreds of flood warnings and evacuation orders remain in place. Rainfall records have been shattered across New South Wales (NSW) and Victoria. By October 15, Sydney had recorded its highest ever annual rainfall total, while Deniliquin, Balranald, Wilcannia, Bourke, Cobar, Griffith and Moree had their wettest-ever October. The northern Victorian towns of Kyabram and Echuca have posted records for the month of October, receiving six months’ worth of rain in just a few weeks.At least four people have been killed as the floods have ravaged Victoria and NSW:

• 71-year-old Rochester man Kevin Wills was found dead in his backyard on October 15. He is survived by his wife, who was rescued from the house after becoming trapped by the flood.
• The body of Brian Hack, a 65-year-old resident of Nathalia, north of Shepparton, was discovered by a relative in floodwaters on October 18.
• A body, thought to be that of 63-year-old Phillip Alvaro, who had been missing since October 11, was discovered on October 19 on a flooded property near the Lachlan River in western NSW.
• The body of a woman, believed to be a 28-year-old who was missing after a car she was riding in became trapped in floodwaters on Sunday night, was found near Mudgee in central-west NSW on Monday morning. The driver and two other passengers narrowly escaped.

In the NSW-Victoria border town of Echuca, the Murray river peaked yesterday morning at its highest level since 1975 and is expected to remain at a similar height for several days.Some residents are considering legal action over an emergency levee that was constructed to protect “critical assets” in the town centre, while other neighbourhoods were left to fend for themselves.They claim the situation has been exacerbated because water is being pumped from the protected side of the levee into the backyards of houses on the other side as heavy rainfall has continued.

Tropical Cyclone “Sitrang” strengthening on its way toward Bangladesh - Tropical Cyclone “Sitrang” formed in the Bay of Bengal on October 23, 2022, as the second named storm of the 2022 North Indian Ocean cyclone season. The cyclone is strengthening on its way toward Bangladesh where landfall is expected during the morning hours (LT) of October 25. At 03:00 UTC on October 24, the center of Cyclonic Storm “Sitrang” was located about 380 km (236 miles) south of Sagar Islands and 520 km (323 miles) SSW of Barisal, Bangladesh, according to the RMSC New Delhi. The system had a maximum sustained wind speed of 85 km/h (52 mph) and an estimated central pressure of 995 hPa.1 Sitrang is expected to continue moving NNE and intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm over the next 12 hours, with a maximum sustained surface wind speed of 90 – 100 km/h (55 – 62 mph). Continuing to move NNE thereafter, it is very likely to cross the coast of Bangladesh between Tinkona Island and Sandwip, close to Barisal on the morning of October 25 (LT). tropical cyclone sitrang 09z jtwc fcst october 24 2022 The cyclone is bringing heavy rains and strong winds to the region. Additionally, high sea conditions are prevailing over the west-central and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal and the north Bay of Bengal. Rough to very rough sea conditions are prevailing along and off the Odisha-West Bengal-Bangladesh coasts. Sea condition is forecast to become high to very high from the evening of October 24 along and off the West Bengal-Bangladesh coasts. Very high to high sea conditions are forecast over the north Bay of Bengal along and off Bangladesh-West Bengal coasts during the morning hours of October 25 and improve gradually from noon. Tidal wave of about 2.4 m (8 feet) above astronomical tide is likely to inundate low-lying areas of the coast of Bangladesh near the landfall area around the time of landfall. Tidal wave of about 1 m (3.3 feet) height above astronomical tide is likely to inundate low-lying areas of West Bengal (North and South 24 Parganas) around the time of landfall. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the central Bay of Bengal, along and off the coast of Odisha, West Bengal and Bangladesh on October 24 and 25.

Tropical Cyclone “Sitrang” makes landfall in Bangladesh, damaging 10 000 homes and leaving at least 25 people dead - Tropical Cyclone “Sitrang” made landfall along the Chittagong-Barisal coast around 15:00 UTC on October 24, 2022, with maximum sustained winds of 88 km/h (55 mph). Sitrang left a trail of destruction and, at least 25 people dead across 9 districts and about 10 million without power. About 1 000 000 people were evacuated ahead of the landfall. According to State Minister for Disaster Management and Relief Md Enamur Rahman, Sitrang damaged about 10 000 homes in 419 unions.1 In addition, the cyclone destroyed more than 6 000 ha (15 000 acres) of crops, washed away thousands of fishing projects and left about 10 million people in 15 coastal districts without power. Some 33 000 Rohingya refugees relocated to the newly formed silt island of Bhashan Char were advised to remain indoors. Reports received on Tuesday, October 25 showed at least 25 people lost their lives across the country, mostly due to falling trees. In Chattogram, bodies of eight workers who went missing on Monday night after a dredger sank in the Bay of Bengal, were recovered from the sea off the coast of Mirsarai. Government meteorologist Abul Kalam Mallick said some coastal towns received up to 295 mm (11.6 inches) of rainfall. Dhaka, Khulna and Barisal recorded up to 324 mm (12.7 inches) of rainfall on October 24. State minister for power, energy and mineral resources Nasrul Hamid said some 8 million people remained without power on October 25, adding that 70% of the affected areas will be restored by Tuesday evening (LT) while the rest will get electricity by Wednesday afternoon. Hamid said the power supply was disrupted mainly by the falling of trees on the transmission and distribution lines. In neighboring West Bengal, India, authorities evacuated several thousand people.

Homes and crops destroyed, more than 40 people killed and 73 000 affected as widespread floods hit Benin - Heavy rains affecting central parts of Benin since September 2022 caused significant flooding that resulted in widespread damage and fatalities. Heavy rains are expected to continue through October. According to the FLOOD SITREP No. 041/MISP/ANPC of September 29 to 30, 2022, 1 462 homes were damaged or destroyed, 609 poultry and 583 cattle were killed, 161 water points were affected, and 18 770 ha (46 381 acres) of crops were damaged. The number of schools and colleges rendered inaccessible is 120 and the number of health centers shut down is 11. These floods have disrupted life in communities and 41 deaths have been recorded in various zones. According to the report published by the International Federation of Red Cross And Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), 27 municipalities out of the country’s 77 were flooded.1 Rivers Mono, Oueme, and Niger in Benin overflew their banks unprecedentedly. This sudden increase in water levels, which occurred when the waters in the Nagbéto dam in Togo were released and intense rains fell, left four 4 people dead from drowning, 35 from water-related accidents while 3 others went missing, according to Benin’s National Civil Protection Agency (ANPC). This caused widespread floods in Cotonou, Abomey-Calavi, So-Ava, Seme-Podji, Aguegues, Adjohoun, Bonou, Dangbo, Ouinhi, Zagnanado, Zogbodomey, Glazoue, Grand-Popo, Athiémé, Lokossa, Bopa, Tchaourou, Malanville, Karimama, Banikoara, Dassa-Zoume, Savalou, and Ze. Many villages were flooded as well as numerous social and community facilities, including over 50 primary schools, and a dozen colleges. More than 73 000 people have been affected and more than 1 400 houses were damaged by the waters, including at least 670 that have been destroyed. Significant crop and livestock losses were recorded over thousands of hectares across 22 municipalities. The worst-affected municipalities are Ouesse, Savalou, Zogbodome, Zagnanado, Tchaourou, Karimama, Dangbo, Bonou, Ze, and Athieme, totaling 71 270 people affected and 1 328 households rendered homeless by the destruction of their homes.

Floods affect over 1 million people in Chad, more than half of capital N’Djamena underwater - Authorities in Chad declared a state of emergency last week due to widespread floods affecting more than 1 million people. The floods affected 18 of the country’s 23 provinces. One of the worst-affected areas is the capital N’Djamena with more than half of it underwater and 50 000 people forced to evacuate their homes. The city has been dealing with intense rainfall for months due to an unusually active wet season. In October, torrential rains pushed the already high Logone and Chari Rivers beyond their banks. This sent large amounts of water spilling into N’Djamena’s 9th District, especially the Digangali and Walia neighborhoods.1 ndjamena flood october 23 2022 N’Djamena flood – October 23, 2022. Credit: Landsat 8 — OLI, Earth Observatory Although parts of Chad are faced with heavy rainfall each year, the precipitation seen in 2022 is unprecedented, according to the UN’s International Organization for Migration.2 Swollen rivers have destroyed over 470 000 ha (1 161 395 acres) of crops and farming land sparking fears of food shortage. Across the country, more than 19 000 cattle were swept away.

Severe Tropical Storm “Nalgae” (Paeng) wreaks havoc across Philippines, death toll surpasses 70 - (video) Severe Tropical Storm “Nalgae” — known as Paeng in the Philippines — made four landfills in the Philipines by 09:00 UTC on October 29, 2022, leaving more than 70 people dead. Nalgae made its first landfall in Virac, Catanduanes at 17:10 UTC on October 28, followed by another landfall in Caramoan, Camarines Sur, just 30 minutes later. It then crossed the Bicol Region, exited into the Sibuyan Sea and made its third landfall in Buenavista, Quezon. The fourth landfall took place at 00:40 UTC on October 29 in Santa Cruz, Marinduque. Nalgae is forecast to make another landfall in the vicinity of the southeastern portion of Batangas before barreling through Cavite, Metro Manila, and the Bataan Peninsula today. The system was last tracked over the coastal waters of San Juan, Batangas, according to the 06:00 UTC, October 29 (14:00 LT) severe weather bulletin issued by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). At the time, the center of Severe Tropical Storm “Nalgae” was located about 90 km (55 miles) SSE of Manila, Philippines. It had maximum 10-minute sustained winds of 95 km/h (60 mph), with gusts up to 130 km/h (80 mph), while maximum 1-minute sustained winds are at 100 km/h (65 mph). The minimum central barometric pressure was 985 hPa and the system is moving W at 20 km/h (13 mph). Early on October 29, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) said it is validating reports that about 72 people have died due to the effects of the system.1 According to its latest update (still preliminary), the NDRRMC said under validation are two deaths reported in Western Visayas, three in Soccsksargen; and 67 at the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM). Earlier, Maguindanao officials reported 31 deaths in the province due to flash floods. Lawyer Naguib Sinarimbo, BARMM interior minister, said 16 of the fatalities are from Datu Odin Sinsuat town, 10 from Datu Blah Sinsuat, and five from Upi. “Most of the fatalities were in a sub-village near Mt. Minandar in Barangay Kusiong of Datu Odin Sinsuat,” Sinarimbo said on Friday. Meanwhile, the NDRRMC said it is verifying reports of 31 injured individuals in BARMM, three missing persons in Soccsksargen, and 11 more in BARMM. NDRRMC has placed the number of affected families at 49 767, or 184 161 persons from Bicol, Western Visayas, Central Visayas, Eastern Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Davao, Soccsksargen, Caraga, and BARMM. At least 171 homes have been damaged and 121 destroyed. These are still preliminary figures and will change as this severe weather event continues.

 FEMA avoids past mistakes by rushing storm aid to Puerto Rico - It was a moderate hurricane whose damage seemed tame compared to the destruction five years earlier from Hurricane Maria. But in the weeks since Hurricane Fiona hit Puerto Rico, the Federal Emergency Management Agency has given emergency aid to far more residents of the U.S. territory than after Maria demolished the islands, records show. The startling contrast is the most visible example of how policy shifts by the Biden administration since 2021 have made it easier for people in disaster areas to qualify for emergency cash, housing aid and supplies. The changes aimed to address concerns that FEMA was distributing disaster aid inequitably. “This is a direct result of policy changes and program enhancements,” FEMA spokesperson Jeremy Edwards said. “FEMA has put equity and accessibility at the center of our mission.” Since Fiona hit Puerto Rico on Sept. 18, FEMA has approved disaster aid for over 645,000 individuals and households, agency records show. The figure will increase as Puerto Rico residents continue to apply for aid, FEMA said. After Hurricane Maria in 2017, FEMA approved aid for 475,000 individuals and households. Fiona was a Category 1 storm. Maria was a Category 5 monster that killed an estimated 3,000 people, destroyed $100 billion in property and left most of Puerto Rico without power for months. The number of people receiving FEMA disaster aid after Fiona is more than triple the number who received the aid after Superstorm Sandy swept across the Northeast in 2012, FEMA records show. Roughly 25 million people in five states, including all of New Jersey, New York City and Long Island, were eligible for FEMA disaster aid after Sandy. All of Puerto Rico’s 3.3 million people are eligible for FEMA aid. The expanse of the post-Fiona aid reflects both a large volume of applicants and a high approval rate due to changes FEMA made in 2021 to its aid programs and temporary waivers approved in recent weeks for Puerto Rico. Just over 1.1 million people have applied for FEMA aid in response to Fiona — the same number that applied for aid after Maria. But FEMA has approved 57 percent of the Fiona applications, compared with 42 percent of the Maria applications, according to an E&E News analysis of FEMA records. FEMA’s approval rate for emergency aid over the past 20 years is 44.5 percent, the analysis shows.

Weeks after landfall, Hurricane Ian leaves thousands displaced, financially ruined -Nearly a month after the catastrophic landfall of Hurricane Ian in Florida, thousands of residents remain displaced and financially devastated while little to nothing has been done by federal or state authorities to alleviate the burdens on residents and enable them to rebuild. The official death toll from Ian now stands at 140 with 129 deaths recorded in Florida, five deaths in each of Cuba and North Carolina and one death in Virginia. Financial losses from floods and storm surges amount to well over $67 billion. Naples, Fort Myers and other locations in the state’s southwestern region bordering the Gulf of Mexico have suffered the most extensive destruction from one of the most powerful storms ever to hit the US. As of last week, some 476 people remained at two shelters in Lee County. More than 5,000 residential properties have been destroyed, while 13,052 have incurred major damage. Most of those living in shelters are unable to rely on second homes, relatives or rental properties while awaiting financial assistance. In addition to residential destruction, Ian is responsible for between $787 million and $1.56 billion in agricultural losses in Florida, according to a preliminary estimate. The hurricane rammed into around five million acres of agricultural lands. Among the most significantly impacted were Florida’s citrus crop, along with vegetables, melons and livestock. Florida leads the nation in orange production for juice but the industry has been battered in recent years by hurricanes such as Irma in 2017 and now Ian. The recurrence of violent storms and their escalating ferocity point to the indifference and inaction of governments, which refuse to heed the warnings of climate scientists regarding global warming and its consequences for human life and the environment. The storm has made many homeless, unemployed and stranded, including newcomers to the state’s most devastated parts who are without connections or resources. One single mother of two young boys from Fort Myers told the media she did not have a car or formal lease before the storm, while her roommate, who was critical in meeting the $1,200 rent, died shortly before the storm hit.

 Burn boss arrest puts Forest Service wildfire strategy on the line - A key part of the Forest Service’s approach to wildfire is on trial again after last week’s arrest of an agency employee overseeing a prescribed fire in the Malheur National Forest that escaped onto a private ranch in Oregon. Forest policy groups, former Forest Service officials and others close to the management of national forests say they worry that a seemingly local incident — a sheriff in a rural county arresting a Forest Service employee for alleged reckless burning — will turn into a national backlash against the use of fire to manage forests that normally burn from time to time. In a worst-case scenario, they said, the arrest in Grant County, Ore., population 7,272, could lead to similar incidents in other places where federal burn bosses — the people in charge of prescribed burns — follow an agency-approved fire plan but the flames escape boundaries due to changing weather conditions. The burn boss, Rick Snodgrass, was released from the Grant County Jail pending review of possible charges by the Grant County District Attorney’s Office, which said Wednesday that the incident remains under investigation. “I am hearing some concern in the ranks about possible ‘copy cat’ incidents popping up, especially under the current political climate in the nation,” said Steve Ellis, chair of the National Association of Forest Service Retirees, which supports the use of prescribed fire as one of several approaches to managing fire-prone forests. Ellis, a former forest supervisor who also worked for the Bureau of Land Management, wrote to fellow Forest Service retirees Tuesday, expressing some of his worries and pledging to monitor the case. “This is a regrettable situation and troubling on multiple fronts,” Ellis said. “Among my concerns is it could make it difficult for fire managers to approve and conduct prescribed burns if they feel they could face criminal charges or personal liability. The result would be more high-intensity devastating wildfires threatening lives, destroying properties and livelihoods, and damaging ecosystems.”

California Wildfires Cancel-Out Two Decades Of Emissions Reductions --In 2020, greenhouse gas emission reductions by California were negated by the CO2 from wildfires. That’s according to a new study by researchers from UCLA and the University of Chicago, “Up in smoke: California’s greenhouse gas reductions could be wiped out by 2020 wildfires.” “Wildfire emissions in 2020 essentially negate 18 years of reductions in GHG emissions from other sectors,” the study’s authors concluded. Yet, comprehensive sensible policies could mitigate the wildfires. These policies include, especially, undergrounding power lines, which often spark onto dry wood, starting conflagrations.According to the study, “We estimate that California’s wildfire carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) emissions from 2020 are approximately two times higher than California’s total greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions since 2003. Without considering future vegetation regrowth, CO2e emissions from the 2020 wildfires could be the second most important source in the state above either industry or electrical power generation.”Their solution: “Our analysis suggests that significant societal benefits could accrue from larger investments in improved forest management and stricter controls on new development in fire-prone areas at the wildland-urban interface.” Those things would help. But the state has lagged in dealing with its aging electricity infrastructure—a problem made worse, ironically, as more electric vehicles hit the road and need more juice from already overloaded power lines.

Methane ‘Super-Emitters’ Mapped by NASA’s New Earth Space Mission -- Built to help scientists understand how dust affects climate, the Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation can also pinpoint emissions of the potent greenhouse gas.NASA’s Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) mission is mapping the prevalence of key minerals in the planet’s dust-producing deserts – information that will advance our understanding of airborne dust’s effects on climate. But EMIT has demonstrated another crucial capability: detecting the presence of methane, a potent greenhouse gas.In the data EMIT has collected since being installed on the International Space Station in July, the science team has identified more than 50 “super-emitters” in Central Asia, the Middle East, and the Southwestern United States. Super-emitters are facilities, equipment, and other infrastructure, typically in the fossil-fuel, waste, or agriculture sectors, that emit methane at high rates.“Reining in methane emissions is key to limiting global warming. This exciting new development will not only help researchers better pinpoint where methane leaks are coming from, but also provide insight on how they can be addressed – quickly,” said NASA Administrator Bill Nelson. “The International Space Station and NASA’s more than two dozen satellites and instruments in space have long been invaluable in determining changes to the Earth’s climate. EMIT is proving to be a critical tool in our toolbox to measure this potent greenhouse gas – and stop it at the source.”Methane absorbs infrared light in a unique pattern – called a spectral fingerprint – that EMIT’s imaging spectrometer can discern with high accuracy and precision. The instrument can also measure carbon dioxide. The new observations stem from the broad coverage of the planet afforded by the space station’s orbit, as well as from EMIT’s ability to scan swaths of Earth’s surface dozens of miles wide while resolving areas as small as a soccer field.

NASA instrument detects dozens of methane super-emitters from space - An orbital NASA instrument designed mainly to advance studies of airborne dust and its effects on climate change has proven adept at another key Earth-science function, detecting large, worldwide emissions of methane, a potent greenhouse gas. The device, called an imaging spectrometer, has identified more than 50 methane "super-emitters" in Central Asia, the Middle East and the Southwestern U.S. since it was installed in July aboard the International Space Station, NASA said on Tuesday. The newly measured methane hotspots, some previously known and others just discovered, include sprawling oil and gas facilities and large landfills. The spectrometer was built primarily to identify the mineral composition of dust blown into the atmosphere from Earth's deserts and other arid regions by measuring the wavelengths of light reflected from the surface soil in those areas. That study, NASA's Earth Surface Mineral Dust Investigation, or EMIT, will help scientists determine whether airborne dust in different parts of the world is likely to trap or deflect heat from the sun, thus contributing to the warming or cooling of the planet. It turns out that methane absorbs infrared light in a unique pattern that EMIT's spectrometer can easily detect, according to scientists at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) near Los Angeles, where the instrument was designed and built. Circling Earth once every 90 minutes from its perch aboard the space station some 250 miles (420 km) high, EMIT can scan vast tracts of the planet dozens of miles across while also focusing in on areas as small as a soccer field. "Some of the (methane) plumes EMIT detected are among the largest ever seen, unlike anything that has ever been observed from space," said Andrew Thorpe, a JPL research technologist leading the methane studies. A byproduct of decomposing organic material and the chief component of natural gas used in power plants, methane accounts for a fraction of all human-caused greenhouse emissions but has about 80 more heat-trapping capacity pound-for-pound than carbon dioxide. Compared with CO2, which lingers in the atmosphere for centuries, methane persists for only about a decade, meaning that reductions in methane emissions have a more immediate impact on planetary warming. Examples of newly imaged methane super-emitters showcased by JPL on Tuesday included a cluster of 12 plumes from oil and gas infrastructure in Turkmenistan, some plumes stretching more than 20 miles (32 km). Scientists estimate the Turkmenistan plumes collectively spew methane at a rate of 111,000 pounds (50,400 kilograms) per hour, rivaling the peak flow from the 2015 Aliso Canyon gas field blowout near Los Angeles that ranks as one of the largest accidental methane releases in U.S. history. Two other large emitters were an oilfield in New Mexico, and a waste-processing complex in Iran, emitting nearly 60,000 pounds (29,000 kg) of methane per hour combined. JPL officials said neither were previously known to scientists.

Asteroid 2022 UR4 flew past Earth at 0.04 LD - (animation, graphics) A newly-discovered asteroid designated 2022 UR4 flew past Earth at a distance of 0.04 LD / 0.00011 AU (17 043 km / 10 591 miles) from the center of our planet at 22:45 UTC on October 20, 2022. This is the 91st known asteroid to fly past Earth within 1 lunar distance and the 3rd closest since the start of the year. It is also the 13th closest flyby on record (since the year 1900). 2022 UR4 was first observed at ATLAS-MLO, Mauna Loa, Hawai’i on October 20. It belongs to the Apollo group of asteroids and has an estimated diameter between 4.4 and 9.8 m (14 – 32 feet).

 Scientists warn in report that climate change has pushed Earth to 'code red' - Writing in the journal BioScience, an international coalition led by Oregon State University researchers says in a report published today that the Earth's vital signs have reached "code red" and that "humanity is unequivocally facing a climate emergency." In the special report, "World Scientists' Warning of a Climate Emergency 2022," the authors note that 16 of 35 planetary vital signs they use to track climate change are at record extremes. The report's authors share new data illustrating increasing frequency of extreme heat events, rising global tree cover loss because of fires, and a greater prevalence of the mosquito-borne dengue virus. Further, they note that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have reached 418 parts per million, the highest on record. William Ripple, a distinguished professor in the OSU College of Forestry, and postdoctoral researcher Christopher Wolf are the lead authors of the report, and 10 other U.S. and global scientists are co-authors. "Look at all of these heat waves, fires, floods and massive storms," Ripple said. "The specter of climate change is at the door and pounding hard." The report follows by five years the "World Scientists' Warning to Humanity: A Second Notice" published by Ripple and colleagues in BioScience and co-signed by more than 15,000 scientists in 184 countries. "As we can see by the annual surges in climate disasters, we are now in the midst of a major climate crisis, with far worse to come if we keep doing things the way we've been doing them," Wolf said. "Climate change is not a standalone issue," said co-author Saleemul Huq of Independent University Bangladesh. "To avoid more untold human suffering, we need to protect nature, eliminate most fossil fuel emissions and support socially just climate adaptations with a focus on low-income areas that are most vulnerable." The report points out that in the three decades since more than 1,700 scientists signed the original "World Scientists' Warning to Humanity" in 1992, global greenhouse gas emissions have increased by 40%. "As Earth's temperatures are creeping up, the frequency or magnitude of some types of climate disasters may actually be leaping up," said the University of Sydney's Thomas Newsome, a co-author of the report. "We urge our fellow scientists around the world to speak out on climate change."

Huge gap remains in curbing climate pollution, UN finds - - The world is not moving nearly fast enough to curb emissions of the gases superheating the planet, according to thelatest assessment from the U.N. climate program.It shows that while new pledges from countries have made a small dent in projected greenhouse gas emissions, current commitments will lead to warming of roughly 2.5 degrees Celsius (4.5 degrees Fahrenheit) by the century’s end. That’s well beyond the goal countries committed to in the Paris Agreement of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees. Above that threshold, the likelihood of more extreme climate calamities, including storms, heat waves, drought and sea-level rise, greatly increases. Already the world is witnessing far more powerful climate shocks at around 1.2 degrees of warming. The report, produced by the secretariat of the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), analyzes the latest climate targets set by 193 countries that are parties to the Paris Agreement. Together, they account for nearly 95 percent of global emissions. It shows some progress over last year’s assessment — thanks to stronger climate targets set by most of the two dozen countries that submitted them. If current country pledges are implemented, emissions will likely peak in 2030 and start trending downward, the report finds. By 2030, it estimates that emissions will be 0.3 percent below 2019 levels. That’s an improvement over the 4.3 percent increase estimated in last year’s assessment. But there’s still a huge gap between those pledges and what’s needed. The latest report by the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change shows that greenhouse gas emissions need to be slashed 43 percent by 2030 to meet the 1.5-degree target.At last year’s climate summit in Glasgow, Scotland, all countries agreed to strengthen their targets to keep them in line with the 1.5-degree limit. So far, only 24 have done so. Stiell called the lack of stronger targets “disappointing” and urged governments to step up their commitments and work to achieve them.

Climate Pledges Are Falling Short, and a Chaotic Future Looks More Like Reality - Countries around the world are failing to live up to their commitments to fight climate change, pointing Earth toward a future marked by more intense flooding, wildfires, drought, heat waves and species extinction, according to a report issued Wednesday by the United Nations. Just 26 of 193 countries that agreed last year to step up their climate actions have followed through with more ambitious plans. The world’s top two polluters, China and the United States, have taken some action but have not pledged more this year, and climate negotiations between the two have been frozen for months. Without drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, the report said, the planet is on track to warm by an average of 2.1 to 2.9 degrees Celsius, compared with preindustrial levels, by 2100. That’s far higher than the goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) set by the landmark Paris agreement in 2015, and it crosses the threshold beyond which scientists say the likelihood of catastrophic climate impacts significantly increases. With each fraction of a degree of warming, tens of millions more people worldwide would be exposed to life-threatening heat waves, food and water scarcity, and coastal flooding while millions more mammals, insects, birds and plants would disappear. Wednesday’s report comes less than two weeks before nations are set to gather at U.N. climate talks in Sharm el Sheikh, Egypt, to discuss unfulfilled promises and take stock of the fight to stave off environmental catastrophe. But war in Europe, an international energy crisis, global inflation and political turmoil in countries like Britain and Brazil have distracted leaders and complicated cooperative efforts to tackle climate change. That delay is “hugely disappointing” said Niklas Höhne, founder of the NewClimate Institute in Cologne, Germany. “This year we’ve seen little of the climate action governments promised at the end of Glasgow, amid a deluge of new science telling us that we have to move faster, and that limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius is still entirely possible. We need governments to set strong targets that drive emissions down, and decarbonize their economies.” At last year’s global climate summit in Glasgow, countries pledged to redouble their efforts to cut the emissions from burning oil, gas and coal that are dangerously heating the planet. They also agreed to increase funding for technologies to help developing economies transition away from fossil fuels to wind, solar and other renewable energy sources. The United Nations report analyzed the commitments made by countries to cut their emissions, known as nationally determined contributions, or N.D.C.s. Countries that signed the 2015 Paris agreement promised to update and strengthen their commitments every five years. The 2020 meeting was postponed a year because of the coronavirus pandemic. In 2021, acknowledging the urgency of the climate crisis, nations agreed not to wait another five years and instead pledged to make new commitments before the climate talks that begin Nov. 7 in Egypt. China, currently the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, is one of the major holdouts on new commitments, though it did submit a new pledge before last year’s summit in Scotland. China has said its carbon dioxide emissions will continue to grow until they peak by 2030, but it has not set targets for reducing other greenhouse gases, such as methane, which it emits in amounts large enough to equal the total emissions of smaller nations. Last year, China said it would stop building coal-burning power plants overseas. As of August, 26 out of 104 such projects had been shelved, preventing 85 million tons of carbon dioxide from being added each year into the atmosphere, according to the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air.. An analysis by the World Resource Institute found that current promises by nations would reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by around 7 percent from 2019 levels, even though six times that, a reduction of 43 percent, would be necessary to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. “Of the major economies, we have seen a few countries update this year. India formalized its commitments; Australia updated theirs when they got a new government in place; Indonesia followed through,” said Ms. Fransen of the World Resources Institute. “But each of those countries had failed to update their N.D.C.s until now, so they are making up for lost time.”

5 things to know about climate reparations - In some circles, it’s known as climate reparations. In others, payments for “loss and damage.” Whatever the term, there are growing calls for a new process that would pay developing countries for damages they’ve suffered from climate change — a problem they did little to create. Wealthy nations such as the United States have opposed the idea for years. But its advocates have stayed persistent as climate impacts have grown more severe, and the topic is expected to be one of the main issues — and potentially the most divisive — at the next round of international climate talks next month in Egypt. Climate reparations — or “loss and damage” in U.N. speak — account for the economic toll of climate-fueled disasters, such as floods, wildfires and hurricanes. There are also slow-onset climate impacts, such as sea-level rise, that can produce irreversible damage over time. Taken together, these are climate change impacts that countries can’t defend against, either because the risks are unavoidable or because countries don’t have the money to pay for protection. One example is the Pacific island nation of Tuvalu, which is rapidly losing its coastline to rising seas (Climatewire, Sept. 23). Because of this and other climate impacts, a country can lose homes, farmland and jobs — damaging economic growth. Governments can take steps to adapt, but when impacts exceed adaptation, it’s considered loss and damage. Finding a way to compensate developing countries for climate losses, however, is a contentious topic. Payment for climate reparations differs from funding that goes toward mitigation or adaptation — two established pillars of climate action. Mitigation refers to efforts to cut the greenhouse gas emissions that are warming the planet by, for example, switching from coal-fired power to solar or wind. Adaptation helps protect against climate-related damages. Loss and damage is considered a third pillar, and in many ways, it exists because actions to reduce emissions and support adaptation have fallen short. “We have been doing mitigation, we have been doing adaptation, but both inadequately,” said Saleemul Huq, director of the International Centre for Climate Change and Development in Bangladesh. “Now it’s no longer something we are preparing for or trying to prevent. But it’s something we’re going to have to deal with.” That doesn’t mean that mitigating climate change and adapting to its impacts still aren’t critical, but loss and damage makes clear there’s an additional need that requires a response. It’s a need that proponents argue can’t be handled by disaster relief, humanitarian assistance or insurance. And because it is different, vulnerable countries are asking that the money to address it also be separate and distinct.Developing countries put forward a proposal at last year’s climate talks in Glasgow, Scotland, for a financing mechanism for loss and damage. It didn’t advance, however, because countries such as the United States didn’t support the measure. One concern was that the proposal would make developed countries pay reparations — as opposed to all major emitters, such as China. Another worry was it could open developed countries to legal challenges or endless calls for compensation. Instead, the agreed upon outcome was a three-year dialogue to hash out how to finance climate damages. Developing countries have bristled at the prospect of more talk shops and are re-upping their demands to negotiate financing arrangements this year. U.S. officials said that while they’re willing to talk about avenues for loss and damage funding, they won’t yet back a new mechanism and would prefer to look at existing ways of addressing the challenge, including through continued efforts to reduce emissions (Climatewire, Oct. 20).

S.F., Oakland can sue oil companies over climate change in state court, federal judge rules --San Francisco and Oakland can sue major oil companies in a California state court for selling fossil fuel products and allegedly deceiving customers about their impact on climate change, a federal judge ruled Monday, rejecting the companies’ attempt to keep the case in federal court.The decision by U.S. District Judge William Alsup of San Francisco follows a ruling in April by the Ninth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals allowing California courts to oversee a similar climate-change suit by other local governments, including San Mateo, Marin and Santa Cruz counties. In Alsup’s court, the oil companies offered additional arguments for federal jurisdiction, including their drilling operations on the Outer Continental Shelf and other federally owned or managed lands, but he ruled against them.The suits, filed in 2017, seek damages from five oil giants — BP, Chevron, Conoco, Exxon Mobil and Shell — that profit from products causing rises in temperatures and sea levels. Citing their increased costs for sea walls and other protective measures, the cities sued in state court under California’s law allowing damages for a “public nuisance,” private actions that harm the public health. The companies prefer federal court, where judges can consider state laws but are generally less receptive to those laws than state courts, and are more likely to dismiss such suits.Alsup initially ruled that the case belonged in federal court, saying any attempt to limit air pollution affects other states and nations in the companies and is subject to nationwide regulation. He then dismissed the suit in 2018, finding that regulation of fuel production was a question for policymakers, not federal judges. But the Ninth Circuit reinstated the case in 2020, saying Oakland and San Francisco were not accusing the companies of violating federal pollution law, only of harming local governments and their residents, and the Supreme Court denied review of the companies’ appeal.In Monday’s ruling, Alsup said much of the companies’ oil comes from the Outer Continental Shelf, but the suit’s focus is elsewhere — the harm caused by the products, the companies’ awareness of their effects, and their alleged efforts to prevent the public from recognizing the dangers.He quoted language from the two cities’ lawsuit: The companies “did not simply produce fossil fuels. They engaged in large-scale, sophisticated advertising and public relations campaigns to promote pervasive fossil fuel usage and to portray fossil fuels as environmentally responsible and essential to human well-being.” The Ninth Circuit used similar reasoning to return the suit by San Mateo and other counties to state court, Alsup said, and if the companies object to a similar transfer of the San Francisco and Oakland suits, they “must address their arguments to our court of appeals.”

Pipelines gain new purpose and profit under climate law - The midstream oil and gas industry is an “underappreciated beneficiary” of the Inflation Reduction Act, with opportunities to repurpose infrastructure for use in the energy transition, according to analysts. Analysts say enactment of the Inflation Reduction Act is spurring decarbonization projects like CO2 pipelines from industrial sources.

Second company files for Iowa carbon capture pipeline permit, seeks eminent domain - An Omaha, Nebraska, company that wants to build an 810-mile carbon capture pipeline across Iowa filed a petition with state regulators this week asking for a permit and permission to use eminent domain to force unwilling landowners to sell the company easement rights for their land. Navigator Heartland Greenway is the second of three pipeline companies to seek a permit. Summit Carbon Solution began the process to get a pipeline permit in late January. Navigator's petition, filed with the Iowa Utilities Board, calls for a $3.2 billion underground hazardous liquid pipeline across 33 counties in Iowa, including Story and Polk, to capture carbon dioxide emissions from ethanol and other industrial agriculture plants in Iowa. A subsidiary of Navigator CO2 Ventures, the company proposes to liquefy the carbon dioxide under pressure and transport it via the pipeline to be sequestered a mile underground in Illinois. Altogether, Navigator's pipeline would stretch 1,300 miles across Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, Nebraska and South Dakota. South Dakota-based Poet, the largest global ethanol producer, and the Iowa Fertilizer Co., based in Wever in southeast Iowa, have signed onto the project, whose customers would include 21 ethanol and fertilizer plants in Iowa. No hearings have been set for the Navigator and Summit permit requests. Wolf Carbon Solutions is the other company proposing a pipeline. Iowa farmers, landowners and state and county officials have opposed the three projects, concerned about the possible use of eminent domain powers. They've also expressed concern about the safety of the pipelines carrying carbon dioxide, an asphyxiant, and whether the companies would fully restore any damage pipeline construction causes to farmland and underlying drainage systems. Navigator didn't immediately file a list of the properties where it anticipates needing to use eminent domain. Navigator said it's still working on access with farmers, many of whom have been busy harvesting this year's crops. Summit also didn't immediately file a list, but subsequently did. All the companies have said they are working with landowners to get voluntary easements for the projects and assure Iowans that the projects are safe, saying they will exceed federal pipeline construction and safety requirements.

Native Americans, white farmers join forces to oppose Summit carbon capture pipeline --Since 2010, Joye Braun, a member of the Cheyenne River Sioux tribe in Eagle Butte, South Dakota, has fought the construction of oil and gaspipelines in her region, working to protect sacred places where her forebears hunted and fished and lived and died. In many of those battles, Braun came up against white ranchers and farmers who supported the pipelines and received fees from the developers for the use of their land.Today, Braun is opposing a huge new pipeline that would transport carbon dioxide across five Midwestern states — Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, and North and South Dakota. But this time she finds herself in an unusual alliance with white landowners who are also against the pipeline, like Ed Fischbach, a South Dakota farmer.Farmers have long supported oil pipelines, Fischbach told NBC News, because “we all need fuel and gas to run. But now they’re realizing that maybe, maybe the Native Americans weren’t all wrong. Because it wasn’t just an issue about whether we needed something — it’s an issue of protecting the environment, protecting our land, and protecting your own rights.”The pipeline Fischbach and Braun are united against is proposed by Summit Carbon Solutions, an affiliate of the Summit Agriculture Group, a global agricultural production, investment and farm management company. The project will sprawl 2,000 miles across the five states, capturing carbon dioxide before it is released into the air by 32 producers of ethanol, a biofuel made from fermented corn. Pressurized and liquified, the carbon dioxide will flow through the buried pipeline to storage reservoirs several thousand feet underground at various locations in western North Dakota, the company says. The proposed pipeline will be the largest of its type in the world and is projected to cost $4.5 billion.Summit Agriculture is a big producer of ethanol; in South America, its Summit Brazil Renewables can produce 140 million gallons of ethanol per year. And the company maintains its pipeline will help the environment by ridding the atmosphere of greenhouse gases generated by ethanol production. “We’ll be removing or preventing 12 million metric tons of CO2 from being released to the atmosphere,” Christopher Hill, senior project advisor at Summit Carbon Solutions, said in an interview. “That’s like removing 2.6 million vehicles off the road.” But some energy experts say safety is an issue with carbon capture pipelines — carbon dioxide doesn’t like to stay put, and the fear is that a pipeline could rupture and leak.“There isn’t really enough experience with these pipelines to be able to say they’ll be safe going forward for five years, or 10 years or 15 years,” said Dennis Wamsted, an energy analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. Given the potential for an accident along the route, “you have to train the first responders in all the little towns,” he added.

Dogwood Alliance protests renewable energy companies, EPA negligence - Cutting through the brazen sound of bus and car horns coasting down Forsyth Street Friday afternoon, dozens of protesters cycled through chants while standing outside the Environmental Protection Agency’s Atlanta office in downtown, holding handmade signs reading “Clean Air for All” and “We Need to Breathe”.Environmental justice nonprofit Dogwood Alliance, along with its partners, organized a press conference on Friday in protest of the EPA’s negligence in caring for the health and well-being of residents living in wood pellet factory towns across the Southeast.Protesters traveled from as far as North Carolina and South Carolina to participate in the event.According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, biomass is “renewable organic material that comes from plants and animals”. Biomass is used in developed and developing countries alike as a reliable form of energy, often burning the substances in order to convert them into fuel. Wood pellets, pieces of recycled wood that typically measure a few inches in length, make up one example of biomass, and are commonly produced and burned in North America.Although the conversion of wood pellets into harvestable fuel is considered “clean energy” by experts in the field because of its use of natural and repurposed materials, the conversion process is anything but for residents living near production sites. Factories that manufacture wood pellets in large quantities tend to emit harmful pollutants into the air that irritate the eyes and lungs when inhaled or ingested. These factories release carbon into the air by burning the recycled wood, which also contributes to the impending international climate crisis.

BP invests more than $4 billion in Houston renewable energy --A major deal in Houston's energy sector is making headlines as BP says it will spend billions on a growing source of renewable energy. The energy company says it will pay $4.1 billion for Houston-based Archaea Energy, which formed just a few years ago, to use natural gas emissions from landfills and farms. The deal is being viewed as an important investment in the energy transition. At the edge of the McCarty Road landfill in northeast Houston, a collection of machines and pipes is capturing the natural gas that simmers off the mountain of trash. Built by another company, it's the kind of technology that BP is investing in. RELATED: US Energy Secretary talks trouble with Texas power grid, energy companies reducing Houston’s footprint Houston energy analyst Andy Lipow says the deal is not a surprise since all the major energy companies invest in alternative energy sources. "They see, as we move forward, we need to develop alternatives to fossil fuels." In a statement, BP says in part, "This deal accelerates our ability to deliver cleaner energy, generate significant earnings in a fast-growing sector and help reduce emissions." Biofuels are currently used for transportation, heating, and electricity generation, so demands will grow with added supply. BP expects its biofuels will generate the equivalent energy of 70,000 barrels of oil a day by the end of the decade to augment those needs. "Renewable natural gas will replace some of the fossil fuel natural gas, but we're decades from it replacing the entire supply of natural gas that we've come to depend on," says Lipow.

How Biden's made-in-America solar strategy may backfire - The Biden administration has pushed for renewable energy to be made in America as a way to address climate change and create U.S. jobs at the same time. But when it comes to solar power, the plan may make cutting emissions a lot more expensive. So suggests a landmark study in Nature that concludes it may be “difficult or impossible” for the United States to comply with Paris climate goals if it tries to break away from Chinese-made solar supplies in favor of American manufacturers.While the analysis does not focus on President Joe Biden specifically, it highlights a debate about whether policies aiming to boost domestic manufacturing could dampen the effectiveness of the climate law. It also comes as questions rise about U.S. strategy on alleged human rights violations in the Chinese region of Xinjiang, a global production hub for the solar industry. According to the study, if three major countries — the United States, China and Germany — impose “strict nationalistic” policies for solar power, it could cause the average cost of a panel to be 20 to 25 percent higher by 2030 than it would be otherwise. “What this study tells us is if we’re serious about fighting climate change, policymakers need to implement policies that promote collaboration across global value chains with regard to scaling up low-carbon energy technologies,” said John Helveston, the lead author of the paper and an assistant professor of engineering management and systems engineering at George Washington University, in a statement. The analysis is the first to quantify the cost savings of a globalized value chain for the solar industry, the researchers said. About 78 percent of the world’s solar panels and cells were produced in China in 2021, according to European researchers. For some precursor components, China’s share of the global market climbs even higher, into the 90th percentile. That has resulted in large part from the “free flow” of Western resources into China such as financing for startups, collaborations with Chinese researchers and innovative lab-scale technologies, the study said. Federal officials are currently weighing new tariffs on Chinese solar imports, a strategy they have employed periodically over the past decade to boost domestic manufacturing. The Nature research team also examined ideas that have only surfaced under Biden, such as the use of the Defense Production Act to guarantee contracts for domestically produced solar equipment. Additionally, the paper considered the effect of policies such as restrictions on cross-national research and development as well as barriers to cross-border investment. If the United States and other countries were to enact such policies, they could lead to slower “learning processes,” referring to how the solar industry learns from experience to sell power more cheaply while using better technologies, according to the authors. “The world needs costs to continue to fall for these critical components, and placing restrictions on their use in the U.S. could jeopardize those cost reductions,” wrote Helveston in an email. The findings are equally true for wind power, electric vehicles and other forms of low-carbon energy, the authors said. As policymakers plan ways to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 as called for by the Paris Agreement, “they should recognize that these aspirations may be difficult or impossible to achieve without globalized low-carbon supply chains,” the study said.

Texas solar and wind resources saved consumers nearly $28 billion over 12 years: report - Solar and wind energy reduced wholesale energy costs in Texas by $7.4 billion in the first eight months of this year, creating average monthly savings of $925 million, according to a study IdeaSmiths released last week. In total, solar and wind resources have saved Texas residents nearly $28 billion over the past 12 years, according to the study. With natural gas and coal prices at 10-year highs, Texas residences and businesses are on track to save an estimated $11 billion this year because of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas’ renewable energy fleet, the report states. Using more renewable power and less fossil-fueled generation also has reduced air pollution, including carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides and sulfur oxide emissions, and curbed the use of limited water supplies, it states. Texas leads the U.S. in wind installations, with 30.46 GW, and it’s second in solar energy, with 8.6 GW as of August. These resources have provided significant financial and health benefits, according to research by Joshua Rhodes, chief technology officer of IdeaSmiths, an energy systems analysis firm based in Austin, Texas. “Texas needs to double down on these benefits, growing consumers’ savings by increasing solar and wind resources,” Sandie Haverlah, president of the Texas Consumer Association, said in an Oct. 18 statement. The report compares the actual performance of ERCOT’s market with how it would have performed minus the solar and wind resources. Renewables “have reduced wholesale electricity market prices on average between $1.17/MWh (in 2012) and $20.60/MWh (in 2022) by offsetting more expensive power plants,” according to the report. The gain to consumer pocketbooks has been larger this year because of increased wind and solar generation as well as natural gas and coal prices that were much higher than they were in earlier years, it states. This year, gas prices averaged $6.24 per million British thermal units, compared with $3.64 per MMBtu last year. Coal prices rose in 2022 to $3.72/MMBtu compared with last year’s price of $3.26 MMBtu. The report notes that thermal power plant marginal costs vary depending on their specific characteristics. In addition to experiencing a jump in natural gas and coal prices, the Lone Star State had a very hot summer, driving up demand and increasing the value of grid-connected renewables. The renewable-generated electricity reduced pollution, particularly in dense, overburdened communities, by displacing fossil-fueled generation, the report states. The intermittent resources were found to have avoided 416,000 tons of SO2, 318,000 tons of NOx, and 558 million tons of CO2 emissions since 2010. For seriously impacted communities, Rhodes valued the avoided SOx emissions up to $107,000 per ton and NOx emissions at $12,000 per ton because of fewer hospitalizations of patients suffering respiratory impacts. The report gave median emission values for SOx at $16,600/ton, NOx at $4,750/ton and CO2 at $20/ton. The drop in emissions has saved Texans between $10.2 billion and $76.4 billion in healthcare and other environmentally related costs, the report states. The solar and wind resources also avoided the consumption of “244 billion gallons of power water from 2010 to August 2022, [which would have been] adding water stress to regions that are often in drought,” the report states. Rhodes estimated those savings as being between $0.7 billion and $1.7 billion

Energy Loss Is Single Biggest Component of Today’s Electricity System --Traditional electricity generation has a thermodynamics problem: Burning fuel to generate electricity creates waste heat that siphons off most of the energy. By the time electricity reaches your outlet, around two-thirds of the original energy has been lost in the process.This is true only for “thermal generation” of electricity, which includes coal, natural gas, and nuclear power. Renewables like wind, solar, and hydroelectricity don’t need to convert heat into motion, so they don’t lose energy.The problem of major energy losses also bedevils internal combustion engines. In a gasoline-powered vehicle, around 80% of the energy in the gas tank never reaches the wheels. (For details, see an earlier post comparing the efficiency of electric vehicles and internal combustion engines.)Fossil-fueled power plants are more efficient than a car’s engine, but they still grapple with the same obstacle. In both cases, converting energy from one form to another leaves only a fraction of the original energy left over to accomplish the intended task.Through the ages, the most common way to make electricity has been through thermal generation, with the process beginning by generating heat. That heat is then used to boil water and make steam, which spins a turbine that generates an electric current. The fuel source can be coal, natural gas, or nuclear fission, but the process is similar – and very inefficient. The majority of the energy that goes into a thermal power plant is vented off as waste heat. Additional minor losses come from the energy used to operate the power plant itself. In contemporary thermal power plants, 56% to 67% of the energy that goes into them is lost in conversion. But the impacts of mining, processing, greenhouse gas emissions, particulates, and other forms of pollution are levied on the full amount of fuel consumed at the upstream end of the process, not just on the minority that eventually reaches your outlets. The same is true for the price tag, of course, which is all the more noticeable as the cost of natural gas is increasing. The Energy Information Administration lists the heat rate for different types of power plants, and the average operating efficiencies of thermal power plants in the U.S. in 2020 were:

• Natural gas: 44% efficient, meaning 56% of the energy in the gas was lost, with 44% of the energy turned into electricity.
• Coal: 32% efficient
• Nuclear: 33% efficient

What about the efficiency of renewables? A wind turbine is around 35 to 47% efficient. But wait, isn’t that the same low efficiency as coal and gas power plants? Well, yes…and no.Comparing renewable energy with fossil fuels isn’t an apples-to-apples comparison, because renewables don’t use fuel. A coal plant with 32% efficiency still burns 100% of its coal. The impact of burning coal is based on how much coal is burned, not how much electricity is generated at the end of the process. But a wind turbine that converts 32% of the passing breeze into electricity isn’t consuming anything.

Inside EPA’s climate strategy for power plants - EPA’s game plan to comprehensively attack pollution from the coal-fired power industry began to take shape almost immediately following President Joe Biden’s inauguration, recently released records show.In early February 2021, senior EPA appointees briefed White House officials on a strategy that would tap a variety of statutes and programs to cut power plant emissions of greenhouse gases and hazardous air pollutants, curb toxic water discharges, and address the massive amounts of coal ash piled up in landfills and storage ponds around the country, according to a slide deck prepared for the meeting.Should Republicans retake control of one or both chambers of Congress in next month’s midterm elections, that blueprint could attract fresh scrutiny. GOP lawmakers have accused the administration of a bias against coal-fired electricity generation and are eager for oversight of EPA. Titled “Power Sector Strategy: Climate, Public Health, Environmental Justice. The Building Blocks,” the slide deck leads off with the declaration that “EPA has responsibility across multiple media to address environmental effects of the power sector.” It then alludes to more than a half-dozen routes for proceeding, including the agency’s air toxics and greenhouse gas standards, effluent limitation guidelines and coal ash disposal requirements.It notes that some options were national in scope, while others — such as regional haze reduction curbs, which generally target older coal-fired power plants — would cover only “a subset” of generating units. The deck also references a Clean Air Act provision that EPA sought to use to prod utilities to move away from coal as a fuel source, only to hit a roadblock this summer at the Supreme Court (Climatewire, July 1).While EPA Administrator Michael Regan in March maintained that the power sector was already headed in the direction embedded in EPA’s strategy, the agency’s coordinated approach was also seen in some circles as a fallback in anticipation of the high court’s 6-3 ruling in the case known as West Virginia v. EPA.As the effects of climate change become increasingly severe, power plants are the nation’s second-largest source of heat-trapping greenhouse gas releases, ranking behind only the transportation sector.

Tucson Electric, PNM seek FERC’s OK to end their San Juan plant ownership pact ahead of decommissioning -Tucson Electric Power Co., a Fortis utility, on Friday asked the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to accept the Public Service Co. of New Mexico’s request to approve the cancelation of the San Juan Project Participation Agreement, which outlines the responsibilities of the owners of the San Juan Generating Station.FERC’s approval is needed so PNM, the coal-fired plant’s operator, can decommission the four-unit generating station near Farmington, New Mexico, according to TEP.San Juan’s 369-MW Unit 1 was shut in June and the 555-MW Unit 4 was shuttered last month, PNM said Sept. 30. Two units totaling about 924 MW were retired at the end of 2017.However, one of San Juan’s five owners, the city of Farmington, New Mexico, has an agreement with Enchant Energy to install carbon capture equipment at the plant and keep it running.PNM; TEP; the County of Los Alamos, New Mexico; and Utah Associated Municipal Power Systems have rejected Farmington’s proposals to transfer the power plant to the city, the city said in an early-October filing at FERC. PNM’s filing at FERC to terminate the ownership agreement is an “end run” around litigation launched last month by Farmington, the city said.“The commission should deny PNM’s blatant and flawed attempt to undermine existing litigation and arbitration that would be undercut by this Notice of Cancellation, allow the litigation and arbitration to conclude and permit the parties to inform the Commission of the contractual rights as properly determined before it entertains an application for cancellation of the [ownership agreement],” Farmington said.Farmington’s filing is effectively moot, according to an Oct. 20 response from PNM. Farmington has withdrawn its litigation and the San Juan owners are in arbitration to settle the dispute, according to the Albuquerque-based utility.

Chapel Hill Weighs Redeveloping a Site That Sits Atop a Coal Ash Pit Despite Warnings - Managing coal ash in North Carolina has long been a sordid issue. Last month in response to the Town of Chapel Hill’s proposal to build on top of an existing 60,000-ton coal ash deposit without removing the coal ash, a group of residents known as Safe Housing for Chapel Hill hosted three of the nation’s top coal ash scientists in a public forum in an effort to educate citizens on the dangers attributed to coal ash. “Coal ash is the new asbestos,” said Edward Marshall, a professor in Duke’s school of engineering who spearheaded the forum. The property at the center of the debate runs along the Bolin Creek Parkway at 828 Martin Luther King Jr. Boulevard, one mile north of the heavily trafficked Franklin Street. It has been the sole home to the Chapel Hill Police Department since the 1980s, but it is also the site of a coal ash infill that dates from the 1960s and ’70s. When plans for reconstruction of the current police station were initially submitted in 2013, the Town of Chapel Hill discovered the buried coal ash deposit at the site, and officials have since been looking to remediate the property. Current plans that the town has released outline the construction of a roughly 80,000-square-foot new municipal services center, which is set to include a reconstructed police station, alongside the addition of private development and a total of 225 to 275 multifamily residential rental units, all of which would be built directly over the existing 60,000-ton coal ash deposit. “The town [of Chapel Hill] has failed to make a compelling, science-based case for building on top of 60,000 tons of coal ash,” Marshall said at the meeting. “All we want the town to do is remove the coal ash before building anything. It is the town council and mayor’s moral and public health responsibility to keep our citizens safe—the proposed plan does not do that.” Chapel Hill mayor Pam Hemminger, however, says the town understands the dangers attributed to coal ash and further assures that current plans to not remove the coal ash have been well researched. ”We can all agree that there are concerns surrounding the coal ash,” she says. “We’ve explored digging [the coal ash] out, but that was going to cause more environmental concerns in many ways, causing fly ash and just all of the hazards associated in digging it up and carting it out with trucks. It would ultimately endanger the community more [to remove it].”

Small modular reactor advocates see opportunity in former US coal towns | S&P Global Market Intelligence -Swapping coal-fired generating stations with nuclear power plants could be a win-win for utilities and coal towns, minimizing costs and creating jobs, according to industry experts.The opportunity to bring new energy investment to coal communities arose Oct. 24 at two nuclear energy events hosted by the American Nuclear Society and the Atlantic Council.That prospect may be closer to reality thanks to small modular reactors, or SMRs, a new type of reactor built in a factory and assembled on-site.A recent U.S. Department of Energy study identified over 250 GW of coal units, operating and retired, that could be converted into nuclear power plants. The study, based on NuScale Power Corp.'s SMR design, also estimated each conversion would add about 650 jobs to the host community.Building a nuclear power plant in an old coal town still has several advantages over building a nuclear plant from scratch, according to panelists. The first is local buy-in."When you talk to coal communities that have been working in a power facility for their entire life [about] waste and safety, you're generally over that conversation in about 10 minutes," NuScale CEO John Hopkins said at a nuclear energy conference hosted by the Atlantic Council. "For them, it's about jobs. High-paying jobs."The Inflation Reduction Act has also incentivized investment in what the Biden administration calls "energy communities," or communities with an economy revolving around the fossil fuel industry. The recently signed act provides tax credits for nuclear and other clean energy projects, with those incentives set to increase by 10% for projects located in energy communities.Separately, the Inflation Reduction Act authorized the DOE to lend up to $250 billion to projects bringing old energy infrastructure, such as retired coal plants, back to life.Former coal towns come with other assets, including a trained workforce, land, water and transmission infrastructure."We have come to the conclusion that it is technically feasible to transition to an advanced reactor," said Patrick Burke, vice president of nuclear strategy at Xcel Energy Inc. The utility has been exploring alternatives at several coal-generating stations that are due to retire, including its 441-MW Hayden plant in Colorado.But SMRs must overcome "significant challenges" in order to be deployed, Burke said. The amount of time to get a new nuclear reactor design certified, built and online could take years, giving utilities little time to meet states' aggressive decarbonization goals. In the meantime, inflation can drive up the price of materials, forcing facilities to refinance.

 TVA developing plans for 20 small nuclear reactors to power Tennessee Valley by 2050 | Chattanooga Times Free Press - To decarbonize and electrify America's economy, the head of the nation's biggest public power utility thinks several hundred new nuclear reactors may be needed in the next generation, including 20 or so new smaller reactors across the Tennessee Valley. In a talk to business investors and nuclear power leaders this week, TVA President Jeff Lyash said the utility's initial efforts to build small modular reactors near Oak Ridge will serve as a model to construct more than a dozen other such reactors in TVA's seven-state region. The reactors will help provide around-the-clock, carbon-free energy needed to meet TVA's goal of operating a carbon-free power grid by 2050. "I have no interest in building just one reactor," Lyash said during a presentation to the Atlantic Council in Washington, D.C.,

Ohio Energy Leaders Agree – Energy Future is Not an “Either/Or” Moment, but an “And” Moment - Ohio’s natural gas and oil industry is committed to a dual track of lowering the industry’s carbon footprint while maintaining reliability and affordability, according to panelists at the Ohio Chamber of Commerce’s recent energy conference. Participants were confident that this is achievable through an all-of-the-above energy portfolio that unleashes domestic oil and natural gas while capitalizing on renewable innovation. On Thursday, energy leaders from across the value chain gathered for the Ohio Chamber’s “Energy Supply Chain: Present & Future” conference. Participants included oil and natural gas producers, pipeline operators, policymakers, renewable companies, and more, with questions largely centering on the energy transition and how various resources fit into the sustainable future.A key point reiterated was how Ohio – and the larger Appalachian region – is blessed with an abundance of natural gas resources by sitting on top of the Marcellus and Utica shales.The region’s Shale Revolution has provided enormous direct and indirect economic benefits for the state including new markets, jobs, wage-growth, and more. Jackie Stewart with Encino Energy, one of Ohio’s largest oil and natural gas producers, emphasized this point:“The majority of our oil produced here in Ohio are going to Ohio refineries. Ohio made natural gas is running through these pipes…that means huge economic benefits.” Adam Parker from pipeline company Enbridge added: “We [the energy industry] exist to fuel our quality of life…from charging our cell photos to heating our homes. All of us working together are a key enabler for Ohio’s economy.”

Ohio Drillers Say They are Ready to “Unleash American Energy” | Marcellus Drilling News - Yesterday, the Ohio Chamber of Commerce held its “Energy Supply Chain: Present & Future” conference at the Ohio Statehouse Atrium in Columbus. Participants and speakers included oil and natural gas producers, pipeline operators, policymakers, renewable companies, and more. Questions largely centered on the energy transition and how various resources fit into a so-called sustainable future. The upshot was that Ohio’s natural gas (mostly Utica, some Marcellus) is front and center as a driving force for Ohio energy, and the Ohio economy.

Ohio Senate Contest Features Two Candidates Who Profess Love for Natural Gas - InsideClimate News - In the race for Ohio’s open U.S. Senate seat, Rep. Tim Ryan, a Democrat, fought off a debate attack by talking about his fondness for natural gas. “In the Inflation Reduction Act, we’re going all in on natural gas,” Ryan said in an Oct. 11 debate in Cleveland. “I’ve been a natural gas proponent since I’ve been in Congress and we have to get this right. We need to increase our production of natural gas.” He is running against J.D. Vance, the investor and author, who also wants to see an increase in production of gas, a fossil fuel that contributes to climate change. It’s not difficult to see why some environmental advocates are leery of some of Ryan’s views. But Ryan’s voting record shows him to be firmly within his party’s mainstream, despite his emphasis on positions that appeal to the political center. Meanwhile, Vance casts himself as an outsider in the tradition of former President Donald Trump and has adopted much of Trump’s approach to energy and the environment, downplaying the risks of climate change and criticizing the transition to renewable energy and electric vehicles. The race shows how energy gets discussed in a state that ranks sixth in the country in natural gas production and where Democrats, with the exception of Sen. Sherrod Brown and Ohio Supreme Court justices, are on an extended losing streak in statewide races. With polls showing a dead heat, the race is surprisingly close, considering that Trump easily won Ohio’s electoral votes in 2016 and 2020. If Ryan were to win, it would be an upset that would help to tilt the Senate, now divided 50-50 between the parties, in Democrats’ favor. “I don’t think Democratic enthusiasm is functionally going to be a problem for Ryan,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, and an Ohio native. Inside Climate News contacted both candidates’ campaign offices and neither responded.

ODNR issues permit for injection well in Little Hocking amidst pollution fears - (WTAP) - The Ohio Department of Natural Resources has issued a permit for an injection well in Little Hocking. Some locals and the Little Hocking Water Association fear the project could pollute their drinking water.Linda Aller, a hydrogeologist with Bennett and Williams who works with the Little Hocking Water Association, explained, “They’re using these wells to dispose of all those unwanted liquids from drilling and fracking.”It will be owned by Arrowhead Road Services LLC, which already has another injection well in the area.There have been several local meetings held about the project. Click the links below to learn more about those meetings.The Little Hocking Water Association General Manager John Smith said the injection site is only about a mile away from their well field.Aller said the new Arrowhead injection well could interfere with improperly plugged orphan wells that might be in the area.“..., there’s a lot of wells that were drilled in the old days where no one knows where they really are that weren’t correctly plugged,” she explained.The consequences of that would be contaminated drinking water and environmental pollution, according to Aller. She explained that injection wells inject fluid into the ground, which creates pressure, which could force the fluid back up if there’s a hole from an orphan well underground.“If it comes back up, it can then move into the shallower formations, which are where you get your water supply from,” she said. The Ohio Department of Natural Resources said it cannot calculate the risk orphan wells pose but acknowledged that the risk is there.

EQT CEO Toby Rice sees opportunity for Appachian hydrogen hub - One of the leaders in the Pittsburgh region’s push toward a regional hydrogen and carbon capture storage hub said Appalachia is the perfect spot when it comes to the expected next step in the energy transition. “Appalachia is ideally suited to lead the charge in clean hydrogen production in the United States, given abundant, low-cost, low-emissions natural gas, interconnected infrastructure and storage, existing transportation networks and proximity to major end-use markets,” said Toby Z. Rice, president and CEO of Pittsburgh-based EQT Corp. (NYSE: EQT). Rice and EQT have been among the leading voices for the region’s move to build a hydrogen/carbon capture hub, a multibillion-dollar initiative to reduce and eliminate the emissions linked to climate change by revamping manufacturing, power and other energy uses to hydrogen. EQT is a founding member of Appalachian Energy Future, a group of companies that are working to build up awareness among policymakers and the public on the wisdom of hydrogen and carbon capture. It’s also joined the Appalachian Regional Clean Hydrogen Hub, also known as ARCH2, a consortium of EQT, the state of West Virginia, Battelle and others that want to build a hydrogen production facility in West Virginia and infrastructure in Ohio and Pennsylvania. ARCH 2 will be one of the groups seeking funding from an $8 billion opportunity from the federal government. Proposals are due in early November and full applications in February; a decision on the first stage of funding between eight and 10 burgeoning hydrogen hubs nationwide is expected in the second half of 2023. EQT is among the companies that would like to see hydrogen, which has a low emissions profile in an end use, created from Marcellus and Utica shale natural gas. That would ensure a future for natural gas, especially paired with technology that would capture any carbon emissions and then turn it into a solid that would either be repurposed into another product or transported as a liquid to be stored permanently underground. In a conference call with analysts, Rice said he was excited about the potential for the technology to decarbonize and at an attractive price. It’s not clear, he said, when that would happen and that EQT would temper its spending in the short term. “Before we would put any dollars, significant dollars, there, we need to understand the profitability of those,” Rice said. Cost is a major issue. But so is demand because, for the time being, natural gas is far cheaper than hydrogen. The hydrogen hub “is going to allow us to get past that chicken and the egg issue, and I think it’s going to be a really good example of the collaboration necessary to make these exciting zero carbon solutions a reality,” he said. “More to come.”

EQT 3Q Completed Wells & Production Drops, but Profits Rise | Marcellus Drilling News - EQT faced some strong headwinds during the third quarter of 2022, but the company still came out on top. The headwinds included third-party (mainly pipeline) outages beyond EQT’s control, as well as droughts that decreased the volume of water the company could lay hands on for fracking. As a result, the company brought online to sales just 16 new wells instead of the 22 to 32 forecasted. Production slipped too, to 488 Bcfe (billion cubic feet equivalent), down 7% from last year’s 3Q. That 488 Bcfe calculates out to be 5.30 Bcfe/d. On the plus side, the company generated net income of $684 million in 3Q22 vs. losing $1.98 billion in 3Q21, and it generated free cash flow of $591 million.

Sinkholes Attributed to Gas Drilling Underline the Stakes in Pennsylvania’s Governor’s Race - The Allegheny Front —Standing in her granddaughter’s yard in Carlisle, Pennsylvania, on a recent fall day, Lynde Blymier pointed to a patch of ground where the grass was sparse. On this foot-wide spot, dead leaves were scattered over what looked like freshly overturned earth, the color of red clay.According to Blymier, it was a sinkhole, and although this one was filled in, it was only one of a series of such holes that stretched behind her granddaughter’s home, past her great-grandson’s swing set and toys, in a surprisingly neat line that marched toward the edge of the property. One of the craters had a chair positioned over it to prevent tripping. “Everything starts as a little hole, a perfect circle,” said Blymier, 70, “and then starts to get deeper and bigger and bigger. They expand over time. Blymier has lived in this mobile home park for more than 30 years and works as its property manager, so she has extensive knowledge of the utilities connected to the site and of its construction in 1987. She first noticed changes on the property after Sunoco, the Texas-based oil and gas company, began construction of a section of the Mariner East II pipeline in 2017 that cuts through the property. Since then, she said, engineers who surveyed the area have estimated that Sunoco has lost over 300,000 gallons of drilling fluid in the site, which includes the mobile home park, storage units, an office building and a parking lot and is bordered by the Appalachian Trail, the Pennsylvania Turnpike and Interstate Highway 81. Earlier this year, Blymier and her neighbors thought they had finally found someone in government who could help them: the current state attorney general, Josh Shapiro. Now the Democratic candidate for governor, Shapiro has earned a reputation as the rare Pennsylvania politician who was willing to openly challenge oil and gas companies, often citing the state’s constitutional right to clean air and pure water.

As Nov. 8 election approaches, Wolf and Pa. lawmakers look to push through massive tax incentives for natural gas · Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf and top state lawmakers are hurriedly negotiating a massive economic development package that would encourage natural gas development in Pennsylvania. The proposed credits, totaling $180 million a year, are aimed at different industries including hydrogen production, milk processing, and biomedical research, according to draft bill language viewed by Spotlight PA. The incentives would sunset in 2045, putting the potential price tag of foregone state taxes at roughly $3.6 billion if the credits are claimed in full.Taken as a whole, the package would be even bigger than the record-setting $1.65 billion incentive Pennsylvania gave Shell for its plastic factory in Beaver County.With the Nov. 8 election fast approaching, such a deal — rumored since September — could appeal to both major parties and their allies in business and organized labor. But Wolf and lawmakers are running out of time to push it through before voters head to the polls.The legislature is scheduled to adjourn this week until late next month, and the two-year session ends on Nov. 30.It’s unclear if legislative leaders will be able to rally support for the package, but it is a priority. Both state Senate Majority Leader Kim Ward (R., Westmoreland) and state House Appropriations Committee Chair Stan Saylor (R., York) acknowledged ongoing talks last week.“The governor wants some things, we want some things,” Saylor said.A Wolf spokesperson did not immediately reply to a request for comment.The keystone of the proposed deal is an annual $50 million tax credit to incentivize hydrogen production in Pennsylvania, according to the draft language.The package would also set aside $50 million each in annual tax breaks for milk processing and medical research, and expand an existing tax credit for companies using fracked methane in manufacturing.Wolf signed the latter in 2020, which created $26 million a year in tax incentives over 26 years. The new proposed tax deal would expand that credit by $30 million but cut its timeline short.

Could a new LNG export terminal be coming to the Marcellus / Utica's backyard? - Without a doubt, the two biggest changes to U.S. natural gas markets in the last 15 years have been the Shale Revolution and the development of LNG exports. These completely upended the way gas flowed in this country, with the Northeast now home to the largest gas-producing basin and the Gulf Coast — including its fleet of LNG export terminals — now the U.S.’s largest demand center. Production growth in the Marcellus/Utica has stalled, however, largely due to the regulatory and legal challenges associated with building new pipeline takeaway capacity. One possible fix would be a new East Coast LNG terminal, which in addition to having easy access to cheap, almost-local gas would also be close to gas-hungry European markets. But just how likely is such a project? In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the advantages and hurdles of developing LNG export capacity on the East Coast.The Mid-Atlantic region already has one LNG terminal, of course — Cove Point LNG, on the Chesapeake Bay in Maryland (yellow diamond in Figure 1) — and we should look at that facility in depth before we discuss the potential for a second LNG export terminal close to the Marcellus/Utica. Cove Point is a single-train, 5.25-MMtpa (700 MMcf/d) liquefaction-and-export facility owned by Berkshire Hathaway. All of its feedgas comes from the Marcellus/Utica via contracts with two area upstream producers, Coterra Energy in Northeast Pennsylvania and Antero Resources in Southwest Pennsylvania and West Virginia. The producers also manage gas transmission from the production area to Dominion Cove Pipeline (purple line), which feeds into the LNG terminal. [….] Cove Point has shown itself to be a viable and highly competitive LNG exporter. Could the same be said for a second export terminal in the Mid-Atlantic region? First, it’s clear that there would be ample gas production available — the Marcellus/Utica has extraordinarily large proven reserves of gas that would be economic to produce even at much lower prices. There’s also decent in-region pipeline capacity in place to move gas around. Depending on the exact terminal location, it’s likely that only a “last-mile” pipeline would be needed to connect to a new LNG terminal.Are any plans in the works? Well, New Fortress Energy had been planning a floating LNG project on the New Jersey side of the Delaware River but it put that project on hold because of local opposition. For now, all eyes are on Penn American Energy, which has been developing Penn LNG (see artist’s rendering below), a proposed 7.2-MMtpa (950 MMcf/d, requiring about 1.2 Bcf/d of feedgas) facility that could be built at one of four locations along the Delaware River near Philadelphia. Although the final site has not been selected, many think it could be at the Marcus Hook Industrial Complex (green diamond in Figure 1), which is already an export point for the area’s NGLs. Marcus Hook (and the three other locations under consideration) could receive gas from Texas Eastern and Transco pipelines. Feedgas could be purchased from the nearby Transco Zone 6 Non-NY or TETCO M3 pricing hubs in Southeast Pennsylvania, both of which trade at a discount to Henry Hub for most of the year. Far more likely, however, is that deals will be made directly with upstream producers to supply the terminal, cutting the producers in on the sale of LNG, thereby giving producers exposure to premium export markets in exchange for feedgas supply. It’s an attractive option for Marcellus/Utica producers who are all too familiar with low in-basin prices and constraints to get their supply out.

Range Resources CEO Says Marcellus, Utica Shales Vital to Stabilize Natural Gas Markets - Fort Worth, TX-based Range Resources Corp is among the country’s largest natural gas producers, with nearly one million net acres in Pennsylvania targeting the Marcellus, Utica and Upper Devonian shale formations. “As we continue to witness a global energy crisis, it’s apparent that the world desperately needs access to abundant, safe, reliable and ethical fuel sources,” CEO Jeff Ventura told analysts during a call to discuss Range’s second-quarter earnings. “Families in Europe are facing real challenges that may not be solved this winter…a stark reminder that evolving energy policy will need to be thoughtful, prioritizing security, affordability, availability and reliability.” Ventura cautioned that certain regions of the United States “are not insulated from these challenges, as large population centers on the East Coast and New England could be faced with limited supplies this winter due to a lack of pipeline infrastructure.” He added, “As the U.S. and the world look for reliable, safe and affordable long-term energy solutions, we believe Appalachian natural gas, and particularly Range, is well-suited to meet the call…” Range believes that “increased Appalachian supplies will be critical” to meet projected growth in U.S. gas demand, particularly for LNG exports, Ventura said. “But in order for that to happen in a meaningful way, additional infrastructure…is necessary.” He noted that “permitting delays and cancellations of critical infrastructure projects have obviously been a challenge, resulting in inflated energy costs in the U.S. and abroad. But in the long run, we believe that common-sense policy and economics will win the day, and allow this great resource to provide life-sustaining fuel to the people who need it.”Within Pennsylvania, “the good news is that the natural gas industry polls well,” Ventura said, citing that candidates on both sides of the aisle support it. He highlighted a proposed liquefied natural gas export terminal envisioned for the Delaware River near Philadelphia that would connect Appalachian gas supply with global demand.

New England Utility Urges Biden to Declare Emergency to Avoid Fuel Shortage - New England’s largest utility is imploring President Joe Biden to start preparing emergency measures to prevent a potential wintertime natural gas shortage.The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has “acknowledged for many months that New England will not have sufficient natural gas to meet power supply needs for the region in the event of a severe cold spell this winter,” Joseph Nolan, chief executive officer of Springfield, Massachusetts-based Eversource Energy, wrote in a letter to Biden. “This represents a serious public health and safety threat.”The White House didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.Eversource’s appeal comes amid growing worries about widespread energy shortages in some of the most populated parts of the US. Heating oil already is being rationed in the New York City area as the coldest months of the year approach -- and diesel supplies essential to trucking are precariously low in the Northeast. Federal energy officials have warned that fuel availability in New England is “a primary concern.” Among the reasons: soaring global demand for US exports and limited pipeline capacity in the six-state region.In its letter Thursday, Eversource asked the White House to consider emergency authorities including use of the Defense Production Act as well as provide a waiver of the Jones Act, a century-old law that can raise shipping costs.Eversource provides electricity and natural gas service to about 4 million homes and businesses in Connecticut, Massachusetts and New Hampshire.

Mountain Valley Pipeline's permit to cross streams in West Virginia faces legal challenge --A state permit that allows the Mountain Valley Pipeline to cross streams and wetlands is muddied by the company’s past violations of water quality standards, environmental groups asserted Tuesday. In oral arguments to the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, an attorney for the Sierra Club and other organizations asked that a certification granted last year by the West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection be struck down. Derek Teaney told a three-judge panel of the court — which has consistently ruled against Mountain Valley in the past — that the West Virginia state agency should have taken more care to prevent a possible recurrence of muddy runoff from construction sites along the pipeline’s path. The department’s determination that there was a reasonable assurance that future problems with erosion and sedimentation would not occur, while at the same time downplaying the nearly 140 citations it has issued against the company in the past, is “entirely implausible and internally inconsistent,” Teaney said. A ruling by the 4th Circuit is expected later in what is the third round of ligation involving stream crossings for the project. The Sierra Club also has filed a lawsuit against Virginia’s State Water Control Board, which awarded a similar water quality certification for the portion of the pipeline that passes through Southwest Virginia. Oral arguments in that case are scheduled for December. Teaney, an attorney for the nonprofit law firm Appalachian Mountain Advocates, began an 87-page filing with the following line: “West Virginia has long resisted the requirements of the Clean Water Act,” which he quoted from a 2018 opinion by the 4th Circuit. “We would submit that this is just the latest incarnation of DEP’s resistance,” he said of the state environmental agency’s most recent decision that favored a 303-mile natural gas pipeline that begins in West Virginia. During arguments to the Richmond-based appeals court, questions and comments from the three judges hearing the case suggested they were sympathetic to Teaney’s position, at least in some respects. “You have to look at the past as a predictor of the future,” Judge Stephanie Thacker said of Mountain Valley’s record of environmental noncompliance since construction of the pipeline began in 2018. The West Virginia agency has fined Mountain Valley a combined $569,000 for failing to maintain erosion and sedimentation control measures in 2019 and 2021. But in evaluating those cases in light of the company’s application for a new water quality certification, Department of Environmental Protection attorney Lindsay See said, the agency did not consider the 140-some violations surprising. An “overwhelming majority” of the infractions did not involve water quality, See said. In Virginia, the Department of Environmental Quality has cited the company more than 350 times. Mountain Valley agreed to pay a fine of $2.15 million in 2019. More recently, a construction site in Wetzel County, West Virginia, was written up in August by state regulators for discharging sediment-laden water that flowed downhill and into a tributary of Stout Run.

Court poised to block key Mountain Valley pipeline permit - A three-judge panel with a history of tossing out permits for the Mountain Valley pipeline appeared ready Tuesday to reject yet another approval for the natural gas project. During oral arguments, the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals analyzed a water permit certification for the pipeline and questioned whether the West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection had done enough to protect the state’s waterways from sedimentation. But the judges seemed to stop short of overturning the permit entirely. “Maybe I’ve just been here too long,” said the judge, an Obama pick. “[We] send this back; they go into a room and then enter these additional things in the record — does it cure it?” The embattled Mountain Valley pipeline has been the subject of a litany of lawsuits over its federal permits and has become a political symbol in Washington of the need to overhaul how major federal projects are approved and litigated. The pipeline, designed to carry gas 300 miles through West Virginia and Virginia, recently announced plans to pull back on an extension of the project into North Carolina. Appalachian Mountain Advocates attorney Derek Teaney, who represented the Sierra Club and other environmental challengers, said Tuesday that their complaint about the state water certification for Mountain Valley was not about a harmless agency error and called for the permit to be scrapped instead of sent back to state regulators. “We need to know what they are going to do so these violations don’t happen again,” he said. The environmental groups sued West Virginia DEP over its December 2021 certification that the Mountain Valley pipeline complied with state water quality standards under Section 401 of the Clean Water Act. The challenge to the approval comes after the 4th Circuit had previously blocked the pipeline developer from using a general water permit called Nationwide Permit 12 to conduct dredge-and-fill activities across waterways in the path of the pipeline. Teaney told the 4th Circuit on Tuesday that the West Virginia DEP had improperly relied on Mountain Valley’s compliance with a separate oil and gas construction stormwater permit to ensure that the project met water quality standards, but the state agency had not made stormwater permit compliance a condition of 401 certification. Meanwhile, Mountain Valley had violated the state stormwater permit 139 times and state water quality standards dozens of times, Teaney said.

Mountain Valley Pipeline halts eminent domain actions for Southgate extension - Mountain Valley Pipeline has decided to withdraw eminent domain actions against land in North Carolina the company sought for its Southgate extension, a 75-mile offshoot of the main pipeline that would carry gas from Pittsylvania south to Rockingham and Alamance counties. “As the timing, design, and scope of this project continue to be evaluated, MVP has elected to dismiss this action, believing that to be the appropriate course of action for the time being and a demonstration of its desire to work cooperatively and in good faith with landowners and communities along the pipeline’s route,” said the motion filed Friday in U.S. District Court for the Middle District of North Carolina. But the company asked for the dismissal without prejudice, which would allow it to pursue eminent domain actions against the properties again. Mountain Valley “has not abandoned this project,” the pipeline wrote. Shawn Day, a spokesperson for the MVP Southgate project, reiterated the motion’s language, adding, “Mountain Valley remains committed to the MVP Southgate project, which is needed to help North Carolina achieve its lower-carbon energy goals and meet current and future residential and commercial demand for natural gas in the region.” “Proceedings currently remain under way with respect to a small number of tracts” along the proposed Southgate route in Virginia, Day added. A condition of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s approval of the Southgate project in 2020 was that construction of the extension would not begin until the company received the required federal permits for the mainline system and the Director of the Office of Energy Projects, or its designee, lifted a stop-work order and authorized the project. The pipeline regained life in August after FERC extended its October 2022 completion deadline by four years. Regulators said their decision was an administrative one and that the proceedings were not the proper time to revisit the project’s approval. At that time, a company spokesperson said the company remains committed to securing federal and state permits to bring the project into service in the second half of 2023. Mountain Valley has said the main line is 94% complete, although some opponents dispute the company’s numbers. However, Mountain Valley still lacks necessary permits to complete the pipeline. An effort by U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin, D-West Virginia, to force approval and completion of the project through federal legislation on permitting reform stalled this fall.

FERC taking comment on proposed pipeline expansion project targeting Wetzel County ...A subsidiary of the Mountain Valley Pipeline’s lead developer is planning a project that would include constructing roughly 4.5 miles of pipeline in Wetzel County to help transport gas to mid-continent and Gulf Coast markets. Equitrans LP, subsidiary of Canonsburg, Pennsylvania-based Mountain Valley Pipeline lead developer Equitrans Midstream Corp., has proposed the construction as part of the Ohio Valley Connector Expansion project. The project includes natural gas transmission pipeline and aboveground facilities in Wetzel County, Greene County, Pennsylvania and Monroe County, Ohio.

Study reveals soil moisture plays the biggest role in underground spread of natural gas leaking from pipelines - Soil moisture content is the main factor that controls how far and at what concentration natural gas spreads from a leaked pipeline underground, a new study has found. Pipeline operators need to factor how the amount of water found in surrounding soil affects gas movement when trying to determine the potential hazards posed by a pipeline leak, said SMU's Kathleen M. Smits, who led the study recently published in the journal Elementa that examined soil properties from 77 locations around the country where a gas leakage had occurred. "We don't need to look any further than Dallas or Georgetown, Texas to see where underground pipeline leaks have the potential to result in catastrophic outcomes," "We often see that such incidents are the result of a lack of clear protocols to detect the leaks or assess damage. That's why there should be more focus on the importance of environmental factors such as soil moisture and how to properly account for them in leak scenarios." In general the team found that methane gas leaking from a pipeline does not spread as far when the soil moisture content increases. That results in a higher concentration of methane gas close to the leak site in more moist soil, the study revealed. The opposite was true with drier soil. But Smits stressed that simply knowing how wet the ground is at the time of the leak is not enough to make conclusions about how soil moisture content impacts gas movement. The moistness of the soil -- or lack thereof -- at the time of leak triggers different complex behaviors in the soil when methane gas seeps into the same spaces as water and oxygen in the pores of the soil. Soil moisture content can also change over time because of weather and other factors such as seasonal water table levels. "You have to understand how the moisture controls both the movement and concentration together," Smits said. "This is something we can assist [pipeline owners] with going forward in addressing leak incidents." The research team looked at more than 300 soil samples from leak sites around the country. The samples -- which were taken at the time of the leak and again after the leak was repaired -- were weighed when they were wet. They were also weighed a second time after they had been dried out in an oven. "The difference in the dry and wet weights, linked with knowledge of the volume of the soil sample, allowed us to calculate the soil moisture," Smits explained. Other soil qualities like its texture and permeability were also examined by the team, but did not demonstrate as much impact on how natural gas moved belowground. In another study aimed at improving gas leak detection, Smits and researchers from CSU's Energy Institute found that there are instances where operating a mobile detection unit from the front or roof of a car were not as effective as walkers carrying a handheld detection instrument. "For example, if you just isolated the speed of travel -- comparing a person walking at 2 to 3 miles per hour versus a car driving at a slow speed of 20 to 30 mph -- the probability of detecting a leak drops from 85 percent for a walking survey to 25 percent for a car," Smits said. The study, published in the journal Environmental Pollution, showed that atmospheric stability also had an effect on mobile surveys. Atmospheric stability essentially determines whether air will rise, sink, or do nothing. Warm, less dense air rises (unstable), while cooler, more dense air sinks (stable). Air staying at the same altitude is considered neutral. Researchers found that mobile surveys conducted at speeds between 2 to 11 miles per hour got progressively less effective (from 85 percent to 60 percent) at finding a leak as the atmospheric stability went from extremely unstable conditions to extremely stable. Walking surveys conducted under these same conditions did not reflect variability. "Walking surveys find the most leaks, by far, but they are labor intensive and cost a lot of money," Smits noted. "This study shows that if operators want to use another method such as a mobile survey, they need to thoughtfully choose a suitable survey speed under different weather conditions to achieve a detection probability equivalent to the traditional walking survey."

Future of pipelines, Black school hinge on court NEPA fight - An upcoming federal appeals court battle could reset the rules for environmental reviews of major projects like power plants and highways — and determine the fate of a historic Virginia school built to educate Black children during the Jim Crow era. As the Army Corps of Engineers weighs a permit for a “mega landfill” to be constructed within 1,000 feet of the former Pine Grove Elementary School in Cumberland County, Va., the agency’s consideration of more data on the project’s health and cultural impacts could hinge on its adherence to a 2020 Trump-era rule that overhauled — critics would say gutted — requirements for National Environmental Policy Act reviews dating back to 1978. The Trump NEPA rule will come under scrutiny Wednesday when Wild Virginia and other environmental groups challenge the White House Council on Environmental Quality regulation before the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals. Advertisement “The changing landscape of the CEQ regulations and how the Army Corps of Engineers should or shouldn’t implement that makes it hard for the Pine Grove project to monitor what is going on,” said Cale Jaffe, a law professor at the University of Virginia. Former Pine Grove students and their descendants are working to preserve the two-room school as a cultural center and are urging the Army Corps in public comments to conduct a more thorough analysis of the impacts of the landfill, which would accept 5,000 tons of waste per day, six days a week. “We are adhering to the current NEPA regulations,” said Army Corps spokesperson Breeana Harris in an email. Under the Trump rules — which the Biden administration has not yet fully revised — the agency could decide to conduct an environmental assessment of the proposed landfill near the Pine Grove school, instead of a more robust and detailed environmental impact statement. NEPA analysis is “sort of like a radar screen,” said Jaffe, who penned a “friend of the court” brief from Pine Grove school supporters backing the appeal from environmental groups to keep their challenge to the Trump NEPA rules alive. “It shows us what’s coming in and what’s happening,” he said. “And when you eviscerate the regulations under NEPA, the radar screen goes dark.”

US natural gas production and exports set new records - In 2021, both US natural gas marketed production and natural gas exports established new records, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).Marketed, or wet, natural gas production (which includes both dry natural gas and natural gas plant liquids (NGPLs) such as ethane and propane) grew 3% in 2021 after declining in 2020. US natural gas exports, which have more than doubled since 2017, increased 26% in 2021.Natural gas production in the US has generally increased over the past decade because of the widespread adoption of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing techniques that allow operators to increase the efficiency of natural gas production from shale formations. In 2021, natural gas from shale formations accounted for 79% of all US natural gas production. The increase in dry natural gas production was accompanied by an almost 4% increase in NGPL production in 2021, which has grown every year since 2005, averaging just under 8 billion ft³/d in 2021. The expansion of infrastructure needed to process growing volumes of marketed natural gas has resulted in more recovered NGPLs, leading to both greater domestic consumption and increased export volumes of ethane and propane.US natural gas exports have grown substantially over the past decade. In 2017, US natural gas exports surpassed imports for the first time since 1957. Major growth in natural gas exports in the second half of the decade was driven by growth in LNG, which the US began shipping overseas in 2016 from the Lower 48 states. In 2021, LNG exports grew to 54% of total US natural gas exports, up from 45% in 2020. Almost all other US natural gas exports were by pipeline to Canada and Mexico.So far in 2022, both natural gas marketed production and natural gas exports have continued to grow. In the EIA’s ‘Short-Term Energy Outlook’, it forecasts both marketed production and exports will continue to grow to record-high levels in 2023.

U.S. natgas gains 5% on technical move, forecast LNG export rise (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 5% after sliding to a fresh seven-month low earlier in the session on a technical rebound and expectations demand would rise as liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports increase once export plants exit maintenance outages in coming weeks. Analysts at energy consulting firm Gelber & Associates said the price spike was largely due to technical factors, noting, "Prices have tumbled too far, too fast ... before rebounding amid oversold conditions." Before Monday's gain, futures plunged almost 60% over the past nine weeks - a move that could help cut U.S. consumer heating costs this winter - due to a combination of mild weather, record output and low LNG exports that allowed utilities to inject lots of gas into storage. Major LNG outages include Berkshire Hathaway Energy's shutdown on Oct. 1 of its 0.8 billion-cubic-feet-per-day (bcfd) Cove Point LNG export plant in Maryland for about three weeks of planned maintenance and the shutdown of Freeport LNG's 2.0-bcfd plant in Texas for unplanned work after an explosion on June 8. Freeport expects the facility to return to at least partial service in early to mid-November. Front-month gas futures rose 24.0 cents, or 4.8%, to settle at $5.199 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Friday, the contract closed below the psychologically significant $5 mark for the first time since March. Despite Monday's price increase, the front-month remained in technically oversold territory with a relative strength index (RSI) below 30 for a sixth day in a row for the first time since January 2020. Even after nine weeks of losses, U.S. gas futures were still up about 40% so far this year as soaring global gas prices feed demand for U.S. exports due to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine. Gas was trading at $28 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in Europe and $31 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) in Asia. That put European forwards down about 16% for the day and on track to for their lowest close since June 13 as mild weather and strong LNG imports allowed utilities to boost the amount of gas in storage in Northwest Europe to healthy levels over 90% of capacity. TTF settled at a record high of $90.91 on Aug. 25. During the first nine months of 2022, roughly 60%, or 6.3 bcfd, of U.S. LNG exports went to Europe, as shippers diverted cargoes from Asia to fetch higher prices. Last year, just 29%, or about 2.8 bcfd, of U.S. LNG exports went to Europe. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has risen to 99.5 bcfd so far in October, up from a monthly record of 99.4 bcfd in September. With the coming of seasonally cooler weather, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 93.9 bcfd this week to 97.1 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Friday.

U.S. natural gas steady on mild weather ahead of expected LNG export gain -U.S. natural gas futures were little changed on Tuesday as the market waits for demand to rise once liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants start to exit maintenance outages in coming weeks. That expected demand increase was offset by record output, mild weather and low LNG exports in the past month or so, allowing utilities to boost the amount of gas in storage ahead of winter. Major LNG outages include Berkshire Hathaway Energy’s shutdown of its 0.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) Cove Point LNG export plant in Maryland on Oct. 1 for about three weeks of planned maintenance and the shutdown of Freeport LNG’s 2.0 bcfd plant in Texas for unplanned work after an explosion on June 8. Freeport expects the facility to return to at least partial service in early to mid-November. At least three vessels were heading to Freeport, Refinitiv data showed, including Prism Brilliance (currently off the coast from the plant), Prism Diversity (expected to arrive Oct. 28) and Prism Courage (Nov. 1). Some traders expect Freeport to return to service in November while others believe the return will be delayed. Officials at Freeport have said the plant remains on track to return in November. Front-month gas futures for November delivery rose 1.8 cents, or 0.4%, to $5.217 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 8:18 a.m. EDT (1218 GMT). Despite the small gain, the contract remained technically oversold with a relative strength index (RSI) below 30 for a seventh day in a row for the first time since April 2019. With the front month down about 60% over the past nine weeks as the market gave up on cold weather in November, the premiums on futures for December 2022 over November 2022 and November 2023 over October 2023 have hit several record highs over the past few days. Traders use the October-November and November-December spreads to bet on winter weather. Despite weeks of declines, U.S. gas futures were still up about 39% this year as soaring global gas prices feed demand for U.S. exports due to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine.

Bargain Buyers Sustain Natural Gas Futures Rally; West Texas Cash Prices Flip Negative - Natural gas futures on Tuesday advanced a second-straight session amid calls for colder weather patterns, production interruptions and the looming expiration of the prompt month contract. After a steep sell-off last week, traders also stepped back into the market to buy gas at a discount ahead of winter. Following a 24.0-cent rally in the previous session, the November Nymex gas futures contract, which rolls off the board Thursday, settled at $5.613, up 41.4 cents day/day. December rose 41.3 cents to $6.166. At its low in intraday trading this month, the front month had dipped below the $5.00 handle. Prices this year, however, have tended to rise heading into expiry. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg., meanwhile, gained 36.5 cents to $4.545, despite West Texas spot prices going negative for the first time this year amid a production surge and temporary pipeline constraints. Prices at the Waha hub in West Texas, for example, dropped $1.745 day/day to average negative $1.165. Waha prices on Monday fell $2.020 from Friday’s levels. A “surge in production is now being compounded by capacity constraints from scheduled maintenance,” said analysts at The Schork Report. That said, the Schork analysts added Waha prices have printed negative about 40 times since 2019 before rebounding. “Owing to robust associated gas production and pipeline constraints throughout the market area, Waha negative prices are not unheard of,” they said. Following losses last week, cash prices in every other region of the Lower 48 advanced Tuesday, offsetting the West Texas losses.

U.S. natgas steady as mild weather offsets planned LNG export rise -(Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures held steady on Wednesday as the market balanced expectations demand would rise once liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants exit maintenance outages against forecasts that demand will remain low with the weather staying mild through at least early November. Traders also noted that the combination of record output, mild weather and low LNG exports has already allowed utilities to inject much more gas into storage than usual over the past month or so, boosting inventories to healthy levels for the winter. In the spot market, meanwhile, gas prices at the Waha hub in the Permian Shale in West Texas fell into negative territory in intraday trade this week as pipeline maintenance prevented gas from leaving the basin. Prices closed at a positive 2 cents per million British thermal units (mmBtu) for Wednesday, their lowest since settling in negative territory in October 2020. Traders, however, noted futures prices would soon jump higher once December becomes the front-month after the market close on Thursday, in part because LNG exports were expected to rise to record levels after a couple of liquefaction plants return to service. Major LNG outages include Berkshire Hathaway Energy's shutdown of its 0.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) Cove Point LNG export plant in Maryland on Oct. 1 for a few weeks of planned maintenance and the shutdown of Freeport LNG's 2.0 bcfd plant in Texas for unplanned work after an explosion on June 8. At least three vessels were heading to Freeport, Refinitiv data showed. Prism Brilliance was off the coast from the plant, Prism Diversity was expected to arrive Oct. 28 and Prism Courage Nov. 1. While some traders expect Freeport to delay its return to service, company officials have said the plant remains on track to return in November. On its second-to-last day as the front-month, gas futures for November delivery fell 0.7 cent, or 0.1%, to settle at $5.606 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Futures for December, which will soon be the front-month, were trading around $6.14 per mmBtu. Gas futures have been extremely volatile in recent weeks with prices up about 14% so far this week after crashing about 59% to a seven-month low over the prior nine weeks as utilities boosted the amount of gas in storage to healthy levels. Despite weeks of declines, U.S. gas futures were still up about 52% this year as soaring global gas prices feed demand for U.S. exports due to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine. Gas was trading at $29 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in Europe and $30 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) in Asia.

U.S. natgas drop 8% on contract expiration, milder weather forecasts (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures dropped about 8% on Thursday as the market focused on near record output and forecasts for milder weather next week than previously expected that should allow utilities to add more gas to storage than usual in coming weeks. Traders noted that big price drop came on the last day the November contract will be the front-month on the New York Mercantile Exchange, which has traditionally been a day of low volume and extreme volatility. The price drop also came despite a smaller-than-expected storage build last week, expectations demand will rise in the near future as liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants return to service, and renewed concerns about a possible rail strike. A rail strike could boost demand for gas by threatening coal supplies to power plants. The Brotherhood of Railroad Signalmen union, representing more than 6,000 members, said workers voted against ratifying a national tentative agreement reached in mid-September, the second union not to approve the deal. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 52 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended Oct. 21. That was lower than the 59-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 88 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2017-2021) average increase of 66 bcf. On its last day as the front-month, gas futures for November delivery fell 42.0 cents, or 7.5%, to settle at $5.186 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Futures for December, which will be the front-month, were trading around $5.91 per mmBtu. In the spot market, gas prices at the Waha hub in the Permian Shale in West Texas fell into negative territory in intraday trade this week as pipeline maintenance prevented some gas from leaving the basin. Waha prices closed at a positive 1 cent per mmBtu for Thursday, their lowest since settling in negative territory in October 2020 for a second day in a row. U.S. gas futures are up about 49% so far this year as soaring global gas prices feed demand for U.S. exports due to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine. Gas was trading at $31 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in Europe and $30 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) in Asia. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states held at 99.4 bcfd so far in October, tying the monthly record in September. With seasonally cooler weather coming, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 94.8 bcfd this week to 96.6 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Wednesday, while its forecast for next week was lower.

December Natural Gas Futures Stumble in Front Month Debut; Cash Clunks - The December natural gas futures contract on Friday floundered in its first session as the prompt month amid light demand, strong production and forecasts for plump storage injections. December Nymex gas futures settled at $5.684, down 19.1 cents day/day. January fell 18.3 cents to $5.953. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. shed 35.5 cents to $4.345. “The most important driver of Nymex gas…is overwhelming warmth enveloping the eastern two-thirds of the country through mid-November,” said EBW Analytics Group’s Eli Rubin, senior analyst. Citing DTN forecasts, he said gas-weighted heating-degree days could fall 75 below normal between late October and the middle of next month. “If the current weather pattern continues, it may be difficult to sustain an average December-February strip” near $6.00/MMBtu. NatGasWeather said Friday that its forecast also continued to point to light heating demand through the end of October and into the first half of next month. The firm said it may take until late November or early December for widespread cold to develop over the northern and eastern Lower 48. “And if it fails to by then,” the firm added, “there will be little supply concerns for the U.S. this winter season, barring sustained Arctic cold.” Production, meanwhile, hovered around 101 Bcf/d Friday, according to Bloomberg, keeping output near the record high it reached early this month and feeding expectations for robust storage increases into November. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday reported a lower-than-expected 52 Bcf injection into Lower 48 storage for the week ended Oct. 21. The build left stockpiles at 3,394 Bcf, or 197 Bcf (minus 5.5%) below the five-year average. Brief bouts of cold and some temporary maintenance issues impacted the latest print. But with benign weather on the horizon and output again near all-time highs, analysts are looking for an injection around 100 Bcf with the next EIA print. Over the past six inventory reports, EIA posted a triple-digit storage increase five times. Analysts at The Schork Report said Friday bears “shrugged off” the latest inventory update “in anticipation of another monster” build with the next Thursday’s storage report. What’s more, analysts expect that production levels will remain elevated through next year.

'Our Lives Are At Stake': Protesters from Louisiana's Cancer Alley March to the White House - More than 100 black-clad protesters, many of whom had flown in from across the country, marched in a traditional Louisiana funeral procession from Freedom Plaza to the White House Tuesday. They held signs with the names of loved ones lost to illness due to the industrial pollution that runs rampant in Louisiana’s Cancer Alley. Debra Ramirez walked about half a block behind the rest of the march, occasionally stopping to rest. A great-grandmother from Mossville, Louisiana, Ramirez struggles with knee problems and had a heart attack just last year.“I’m determined to make it, I don’t care if I’m the last one,” Ramirez said to a woman marching beside her. “This might be my last march, but I’m going to make it.”As she walked, Ramirez held an ornate black umbrella and a sign that featured a “death tree” with more than a dozen names of those who had passed on its branches. She’s been involved with the fight for environmental justice in the region since the 1980s. When she did arrive at the march’s endpoint in front of the White House, Ramirez spoke alongside other advocates to a crowd of protesters that included Louisianans, Texans and others from out of town alongside many DMV locals. The group gathered behind a fake coffin reading simply “R.I.P.”“I was the last one to get here, but I’m going to be the last one standing,” she said over a megaphone. “All the governmental entities, all the presidents, everybody knew that we were being poisoned. They knew that our people were dying. They knew that they were killing our children.” The protesters held huge banners demanding President Joe Biden declare a climate emergency and stop approving all fossil fuel projects. Pollution from oil and gas production, as well other industries like plastics production, disproportionately harms Black communities. Cancer Alley, a stretch of land between Baton Rouge and New Orleans, includes more than 150 of these polluting facilities.Last month, a Louisiana judge blocked a new, huge plastics plant from being built. That victory came after years of organizing from the faith-based environmental justice group Rise St. James, which co-led Tuesday’s D.C. protest alongside the People vs. Fossil Fuels coalition. Shamell Lavigne recalled how that fight began in her mother Sharon Lavigne’s den in 2018.“Louisiana Governor John Bel Edwards basically greenlit that plastics plant, and we know from the other plants already located in St. James Parish, that it was going to basically kill us,” Shamell Lavigne said. “We were like, ‘we have to do something. And we cannot allow this $9.4-billion plastics plant to come into our community.’” Rise St. James has grown since then, and attracted support throughout environmental and climate justice communities. Rise St. James regularly partners with groups all along the Gulf in Louisiana and Texas impacted by industrial pollution. These areas, like Cancer Alley, have been called “sacrifice zones” because of the high levels of pollution-related illness. “Our lives are at stake,” Lois Booker Malvo, a resident of Lake Charles, Louisiana and a two-time cancer survivor, said to the crowd. “Stop using us to make money and destroying our lives! We are sick and tired of being killed by industry.”

 New federal funding aims to plug hundreds of orphan oil wells across the state - After decades of exploration – and exploitation — Louisiana is covered with thousands of orphaned well sites that cause a plethora of problems for the environment and communities that live with them. But new funding, including a $12.7 million grant from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, was awarded to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service in partnership with the Louisiana Department of Natural Resources to make a dent in plugging 151 orphaned wells across five national wildlife refuge sites in Louisiana.The projects funded by the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law include the plugging and remediation of 59 sites in the Upper Ouachita National Wildlife Refuge, seven in the Atchafalaya National Wildlife Refuge, 11 in the Lacassine National Wildlife Refuge, six in the Black Bayou Lake National Wildlife Refuge and 68 in the D’Arbonne National Wildlife Refuge.“We're making progress on fixing these legacy pollution issues,” Guthrie said. “They've been sitting out there for years.”Orphaned wells are oil or gas wells that have been abandoned for long periods of time by fossil fuel companies that are either bankrupt or cannot be identified. Jim Guthrie, a senior adviser for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service said many of the orphaned well sites in the state have been abandoned since the first half of the 1900s.The number of sites currently sits at 4,500 in Louisiana, with the majority of them located near Shreveport and Monroe.Specifically, these abandoned oil well sites release hydrocarbons, methane and contaminated water. These pollutants often lead to a loss of habitat and cause public safety and health issues, and the continuous emission of the greenhouse gas methane contributes to global warming.“We saw one today, the previous owner had abandoned it, and the (well’s) retention area has just fallen apart. But there are still pollutants in there. Birds come in, they land and they find out that they landed in a pool of oil and that's terminal for them,” Guthrie said. “Other critters may fall in there or they may eat the birds, and then they're not doing so well either. So it's a domino effect that goes on.”Currently, oil and gas companies pay a small fee on oil produced in Louisiana to address abandoned wells that roughly amounts to $4 million a year — but the state is unable to keep up with the pace of the new sites coming to even plug up a huge backlog of wells, according to Guthrie.Louisiana typically plugs 120 to 200 sites a year through the state Oilfield Site Restoration OSR Program. The Oilfield Site Restoration Program typically receives $10 million in funding a year.

Oil Futures Mixed, ULSD Spikes to 6-Month High on Low Supply - While advancing on the week, New York Mercantile Exchange oil futures and the Intercontinental Exchange Brent contract settled Friday's session mixed with ULSD futures the outlier, rallying for a sixth consecutive session, and spiking to a six-month high. The moves came amid critically low inventory of middle distillates in the United States and globally just days ahead of the start of the heating season. The November ULSD contract, which expires Monday, Oct. 31, surged $0.2159 Friday and $0.7175 since the prior Friday to a $4.5498-per-gallon settlement after trading at a $4.6841 six-month intraday high on the spot continuous chart. Low stock levels and strong demand pull as buyers look to secure product on worry over supply availability blew out the prompt spread, with the backwardation widening to $0.8043 per gallon. The previous high, a record, was reached in late April at $1.127 per gallon amid a short squeeze ahead of the May contract's expiration as the market worried over product availability in the weeks following supply disruptions caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This week's rally in ULSD futures was realized amid widening diesel shortages, which are spreading from New England and broader New York area to the Southeast and westward to Tennessee. Reported outages and allocations at distribution terminals all along the East Coast were exacerbated by low levels on the Mississippi River that is constraining barge movement. Valero Energy reportedly cut runs at Memphis refinery by about 20% due to shipping issues on the Mississippi River. Nationwide distillate inventories have been running consistently below the five-year average for much of the year, with strong exports and domestic demand drawing down stockpiles. Now, with the heating season beginning in less than a week, low supply is amplifying fears over fuel rationing this winter. Particularly sensitive are New England states, which account for the largest concentration of households and businesses that use heating oil for space heating. Diesel shortages are not just an issue for the U.S. energy market. In Europe, expected loss of Russian diesel exports combined with production outages in France have left parts of the continent short supply, according to the head of Spanish oil refiner Repsol SA. "We are running out of middle distillates in some European countries," Chief Executive Officer Josu Jon Imaz said on an earnings call, adding that "there is room to see high diesel prices in the coming months." Recent strikes in France, which knocked refineries offline, have also squeezed the market, triggering a surge in imports. Last week, U.S. exports of crude and petroleum products surged to a record-high 11.4 million barrels per day (bpd) amid the tight global market disposition. The resulting high prices for distillates amid the low supply will further contribute to rising inflation. In Germany, the European Union's largest economy, inflation unexpectedly accelerated this month to 11.6% from a year earlier, following a trend already seen in France and Italy. Italy, the EU's third-largest economy, Friday morning reported consumer prices grew to 11.9% in October -- the fastest since 1984 -- with energy prices surging a mind-blowing 73.2% year on year, up from 44.5% in September. For the Eurozone, inflation quickened to 10.7% in October from 9.8% in the previous month.

Texas natural gas plunges toward zero as output swamps pipelines — Natural gas prices in the Permian Basin of West Texas are plunging toward zero as booming production overwhelms pipeline networks, creating a regional glut of the fuel. Gas in an area of the vast Permian known as Waha was trading for as little as 20 cents to 70 cents per million British thermal units on Monday, traders said. That compares with the US benchmark futures contract that’s trading around $5 and European prices close to $28. If West Texas prices tumble into negative territory, energy producers will effectively be paying someone to take gas off their hands -- something that hasn’t happened in two years. The price collapse illustrates the sharp contrast between bountiful US supplies of the fuel and Europe’s worsening energy crisis as winter approaches. Tight gas markets in Europe and Asia threaten to have knock-on effects for diesel, coal and power as governments and utilities scramble for energy, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. The Texas price plunge stems from maintenance scheduled for Kinder Morgan Inc.’s Gulf Coast Express and El Paso Natural Gas pipeline systems. Insufficient pipeline capacity has actually been a long-term problem that has dogged Permian Basin gas producers for years. The choke points worsen when pipeline operators must perform repairs and preventative maintenance work that forces temporary reduction in pressure or halts to shipping. Permian pipeline constraints “have never been relieved,” making the region more susceptible to sudden gluts and price volatility, said Campbell Faulkner, chief data analyst at OTC Global Holdings LP. What Bloomberg Intelligence Says An early-October disruption in polar vortex formation -- making it more elongated -- is channeling colder air toward the upper northern hemisphere, including the US, Canada, Europe and China, as Severe Weather Europe suggests. That could raise the specter of energy shortages as heating needs spike, stoking strong demand for natural gas, coal and oil products. -- Henik Fung and Chia Cheng Chen, BI analysts Waha gas went negative eight times in 2020 and more than two dozen times in 2019, data compiled by Bloomberg shows.

Chesapeake cuts workforce prior to sale of South Texas oil assets -Chesapeake Energy has laid off nearly 3% of its workforce ahead of its potential sale of oil properties in South Texas, Reuters reported, citing people familiar with the development.Last week, the gas producer got rid of approximately 40 workers including geoscientists and geologists involved in its oil production, the sources said.In April 2022, Reuters reported that Chesapeake was working with two undisclosed banks on a potential sale of its oil-producing South Texas assets to raise as much as $2bn. In August, the company said it intends to shift its focus towards its mainstay natural gas operations by offloading oil-producing properties in the Eagle Ford shale region of Texas.

Oil output in Permian to rise in August to highest on record -EIA - (Reuters) - Oil output in the Permian in Texas and New Mexico, the biggest U.S. shale oil basin, is due to rise 66,000 barrels per day (bpd) to a record 5.413 million bpd in October, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its productivity report on Monday. Total output in the major U.S. shale oil basins will rise 132,000 bpd to 9.115 million bpd in October, the highest since March 2020, the EIA projected. In the Bakken in North Dakota and Montana, the EIA forecast oil output will rise 21,000 bpd to 1.204 million bpd in October, the most since November 2020. In the Eagle Ford in South Texas, output will rise 26,000 bpd to 1.250 million bpd in October, its highest since April 2020. Total natural gas output in the big shale basins will increase 0.606 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) to a record 94.741 bcfd in October, the EIA forecast. In the biggest shale gas basin in Appalachia, Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia, output will rise to 35.577 bcfd in October, the highest since hitting a record near 36.0 bcfd in December 2021. Gas output in the Permian and the Haynesville in Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas will also rise to record highs of 20.736 bcfd and 16.023 bcfd in October, respectively.

Approval of oil leases in New Mexico prompts legal challenge (AP) — The Biden administration’s approval of oil leases in a corner of New Mexico that has become a battleground over increased development and preservation of Native American sites has prompted a legal challenge. Environmental groups are suing the Bureau of Land Management and U.S. Interior Secretary Deb Haaland. They contend in a complaint filed Wednesday that the federal government is going back on its word by clearing the way for oil and gas development on federal lands near Chaco Culture National Historical Park. At issue are leases that span more than 70 square miles (180 square kilometers) in northwestern New Mexico. The groups say the federal government agreed in April to reconsider the Trump-era leases given their proximity to homes and an area held sacred by Navajos. “We are disappointed that the Bureau of Land Management decided to double down on fracking and ignore the cumulative impacts, inequities and injustices of oil and gas leasing and drilling in the Greater Chaco (area),” Ally Beasley with the Western Environmental Law Center said in a statement.

Fracking bottlenecks threaten US output growth The US government continues to press domestic oil producers to boost output to help address surging energy prices, but the reality on the ground, according to one of the country's leading oil field services companies, is that a lack of available staff and equipment for hydraulic fracturing present a huge obstacle to raising production. There is very little spare equipment to go around and, even if producers wanted to step up drilling, they would find it difficult to obtain a frac fleet, Chris Wright, chief executive of Liberty Energy, the second-largest provider of fracking services to US onshore producers, tells Argus. "There are a lot of barriers to growing, but if I had to point to one, tightness in the frac market might be the biggest issue of all," Wright says. Shale producers have faced significant obstacles in ramping up activity this year, ranging from surging inflation to supply-chain bottlenecks. Investor demands for capital discipline and improved returns have also capped any growth ambitions public operators might harbour during a year of high oil prices. But labour shortages, which have plagued the industry over the past year or so, are finally starting to ease. "They're still quite challenging today but, fortunately, they're less challenging than they were six months or 12 months ago," Wright says. Liberty, which moved up the ranks of US service providers with its 2020 purchase of Schlumberger's North American fracking business, is now hiring skilled workers from outside the oil and gas industry and training them up. Meanwhile, delivery times for everything from engines to electronic components have grown longer, while costs for parts and labour-intensive services have increased. "All of these things are still real," Wright says. "They are making it a little harder to run frac operations for us and certainly for the whole industry." The most recent conversations with customers have focused on security of supply and timeliness. The normal seasonal slowdown going into the year-end may be less marked this year if producers are reluctant to risk losing existing frac crews. "You don't want to drill a bunch of wells and have them ready to frac at the end of January and then not have them fracked until July," Wright notes. Liberty reactivated six fleets acquired through the Schlumberger deal during the third quarter, but may add just two fleets next year if the company decides it is "too challenging to hire and staff further", Wright says. The Permian has dominated shale activity as the industry has emerged from the Covid-19 pandemic, but other basins such as Eagle Ford in South Texas and North Dakota's Bakken are holding their own — although the Bakken is still facing significant labour challenges. "There's pretty robust activity across the basins," Wright says, even though some have slowed from the rapid growth rates seen in the previous decade. Faced with the prospect of a global recession, the industry may cope better than others given the tight market. "If it's modest, which I think is most people's default assumption, then commodity prices sort of already reflect that," Wright says.

Baker Hughes Shows Weak U.S. Drilling Activity - The number of total active drilling rigs in the United States fell 3 this week, according to new data from Baker Hughes published on Friday. The total rig count slipped to 768 this week—224 rigs higher than the rig count this time in 2021. Oil rigs in the United States fell 2 this week, to 610. Gas rigs fell 1 to 156. Miscellaneous rigs stayed the same at 2. The rig count in the Permian Basin held steady again this week at 346. Rigs in the Eagle Ford fell 1 to 70. Granite Wash and Williston also saw a decrease of a single rig, while Cana Woodford saw a 2-rig gain. Arkoma Woodford saw a single rig gain. Primary Vision’s Frac Spread Count, an estimate of the number of crews completing unfinished wells—a more frugal use of finances than drilling new wells—rose for the seventh week in a row, to 298 for the week ending October 21, from 295 in the previous week. This compares to 288 a month ago and 265 a year ago. Crude oil production in the United States was unchanged in the week to October 21, at 12 million bpd, according to the latest weekly EIA estimates. U.S. production levels are up just 300,000 bpd so far this year and up 700,000 bpd versus a year ago. At 11:30 a.m. ET, the WTI benchmark was trading down $1.51 per barrel (-1.70%) on the day at $87.57 per barrel—up nearly $3 per barrel since this time last week. The Brent benchmark was trading down $1.62 at $98.34 per barrel (-1.67%) on the day, but up roughly $6.50 per barrel compared to last Friday. WTI was trading at $87.68 minutes after the data release.

 With Fossil Fuel Companies Facing Pressure to Reduce Carbon Emissions, Private Equity Is Buying Up Their Aging Oil, Gas and Coal Assets - Inside Climate News --When Continental Resources announced a deal last week to take the oil company private, it joined a trend that has swept across the fossil fuel sector in recent years. With investors agitating for energy companies to lower their greenhouse gas emissions, many oil and gas drillers and utilities have sold off wells and coal plants to private companies or private equity firms, which have been eager to scoop up the industry’s dirtier assets. Now, some environmental advocates are warning that these transactions, supposedly driven by an effort to reduce emissions and climate risks, may instead do the opposite. Privately held companies are exempt from many of the financial reporting rules that publicly traded companies face, and they are more insulated from the social and environmental pressures that investors have placed on the fossil fuel sector in recent years. As the impacts of climate change have worsened and more governments have acted to reduce emissions, investors have increasingly pressed oil companies to prepare for a pivot away from fossil fuels by scaling back drilling plans and investing in alternatives like renewable energy or biofuels.The concern is that these privately held companies, facing less external pressure, might continue to run coal plants and oil wells for longer than the publicly traded concerns would have. Advocates also warn that the shift into private hands could increase the risks that the public will be left with the bill for cleanup when the operations are eventually shut and abandoned.In the case of Continental, a large independent oil producer with headquarters in Oklahoma City, the move to go private was driven explicitly by a desire to free itself from investor restraints.“We will play an essential role for decades to come as we do our part to help secure America’s energy independence without any encumbrances,” the company’s founder and chairman, Harold Hamm, wrote in a letter to employees, explaining his proposed purchase of the company. (The letter was disclosed in a securities filing, which privately held companies generally are not required to submit.) “Let’s go find some oil.”In other cases it has been private equity firms, which promise large returns for investors by buying companies and placing riskier bets than traditional investment firms that have been purchasing oil fields and coal plants across the country, often through holding companies.In recent years, BP, ExxonMobil, Shell and ConocoPhillips have all sold assets to private equity firms or privately held energy companies, taking polluting wells off their books while shifting them to less transparent owners. Utilities have made similar sales of coal- and gas-fired power plants. All told, private equity firms have invested more than $1 trillion in the energy sector, including renewable energy, since 2010, according to the Private Equity Stakeholder Project, which works to help “communities, working families, and others impacted by private equity investments.” The trend is driven in large part by the flight of traditional investors seeking to green their portfolios. “Public investors like mutual funds, hedge funds, university endowments, pension funds — they are actively shifting away from fossil fuels,” . “As public investors are divesting fossil fuels, someone’s buying it. They’re not disappearing into thin air.” To further complicate the picture, pension funds are in some cases divesting from fossil fuels in parts of their portfolios even as they continue to invest in others, if indirectly: Public pension funds have plowed money into private equity funds because of their high yields, and many of those private funds are using that money to buy fossil fuel assets. All of this serves to decrease transparency about who owns what. And some environmentalists say it undermines the efforts of a growing movement backed by many large investors, including some public pension funds, to use their money to exert pressure on the fossil fuel industry.

Central Coast crude oil pipelines tied to Refugio spill acquired by ExxonMobil - Two crude oil pipelines on the Central Coast owned by beleaguered company Plains All American have been acquired by oil giant ExxonMobil.“ExxonMobil has signed an agreement with Plains All American Pipeline to acquire lines 901 and 903 located in Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo and Kern counties,” said Julie L. King, an ExxonMobil spokeswoman. “A team from ExxonMobil Pipeline Company will conduct a thorough inspection of the pipelines to determine how to safely and responsibly return them to service.”On May 19, 2015, Plains’ pipeline 901 ruptured near Refugio State Beach, spilling up to 630,000 gallons, or 15,000 barrels, of crude oil onto the shoreline and into the ocean. Plains was found criminally liable in 2018 for the oil spill because of failed maintenance and extensive pipeline corrosion.According to the Justice Department, the discharge was caused by Plains’ failure to address external corrosion and have adequate control-room procedures in place, and was further exacerbated by Plains’ failure to respond properly.In Santa Barbara, a Superior Court judge in 2019 ordered Plains to pay a$3.3 million criminal fine for the Refugio oil spill. The spill devastated the fishing industry and polluted coastal properties from Santa Barbara County to Los Angeles County. Plains All American Pipeline also in May of this year agreed to settle a class-action lawsuit, and pay $230 million to fishers, fish processors, and shoreline property residents damaged by the Refugio oil spill in 2015.

Alaska’s push to drill in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge backfired. Here’s how. --When Congress passed then-President Donald Trump’s tax reform package in 2017, with provisions to open the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil drilling, Alaska’s congressional delegation said the decision would change the state’s future for the better. “This is a watershed moment for Alaska and all of America,” Republican U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski said in a statement at the time. Murkowski drafted the section of the bill opening the refuge, and hailed the impending arrival of “thousands of jobs” with better pay, as much as $60 billion in oil royalties for the state of Alaska and “renewed hope for growth and prosperity.”The decision to open the refuge has indeed shaped Alaska’s future — but not in the way its promoters predicted. With leases suspended by the Biden administration and a federal lawsuit still playing out over environmental reviews, all the private companies that leased refuge land for oil development have nowbacked out of their deals, leaving an Alaska state agency as the only leaseholder. The final company with drilling rights in the refuge, Knik Arm Services, gave up its lease in August, with its owner saying it was time to move on to “better opportunities.” Amid the global economy’s transition away from oil and the long timeline for any future development, the industry’s exodus from the refuge makes it unlikely that Alaska will win any significant near-term benefits from the area’s opening, which came after a decades-long political push. But even more significant is the backlash against Alaska’s broader oil industry, outside the refuge, that was sparked by the push to drill inside it. Now, it’s not just the refuge that’s increasingly out of reach for wildcatters: It’s the entire Alaska portion of the Arctic, the site of nearly all of the industry’s existing and hoped-for projects in the state. That result stems from a successful campaign by green groups to cut off oil companies’ access to loans and insurance for development in the refuge. The effort was successful not only in convincing big banks and insurers to rule out financing those developments; it also got many of them to swear off deals anywhere in the Arctic.

 Biden admin backs contested Alaska LNG project - - The Biden administration signaled support Monday for a massive liquefied natural gas project in Alaska, touting the energy benefits of a proposal critics have called a terrible idea. U.S. Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel held a summit in Japan focused on the proposed Alaska LNG project, which would include about 800 miles of pipeline as well as a gas export facility in Nikiski, Alaska.U.S. and Japanese officials discussed how “Alaska LNG can provide stable, sustainable, and affordable energy sources to Japan,” according to a statement Monday from Emanuel. He indirectly referenced Russia’s war in Ukraine, a conflict that has pushed numerous countries to seek new supplies of energy.“No need for Russian gas when #America stands ready to supply it,” Emanuel said on Twitter.The talks in Tokyo come as the Biden administration has pushed to boost U.S. LNG exports to Europe following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February. U.S. LNG exports are forecast to average 11.7 billion cubic feet per day in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to a report last month from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, up 1.7 bcf per day from the third quarter of this year.The Alaska LNG project is being developed by the Alaska Gasline Development Corp. (AGDC), a state corporation. It is looking to ship LNG primarily to Asian markets. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approved the project in 2020 (Greenwire, May 21, 2020).The $39 billion project has garnered the support of policymakers such as Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) and Sens. Dan Sullivan and Lisa Murkowski, both Republicans who represent Alaska. The $39 billion is for the proposed pipeline, a gas treatment facility on the North Slope and an LNG plant, according to Tim Fitzpatrick, a spokesperson for AGDC.“Our ongoing conversations with investors and developers, like the one early this morning, are to address funding and other aspects of completing the project,” Fitzpatrick said in an email Monday.But environmental groups have criticized the fossil fuel project, with groups opposing it because they do not want to see more oil and gas infrastructure built (Energywire, June 30). Concerns have ranged from climate change to the ecosystem in Alaska.Fitzpatrick said the Alaska LNG project is the only one under development by the company. The development corporation has signed multiple letters of intent with potential LNG purchasers, he said.The project’s benefits include proximity to Asian markets, a “strong safety culture” and a “cold climate that ensures more efficient production,” according to a video on Alaska LNG’s website.The facility, which could export up to 20 million metric tons of LNG annually, has faced legal challenges over a FERC analysis of the project’s climate risks (Energywire, Sept. 15).One environmental group said the Alaska LNG summit appeared to be an example of the U.S. government trying to facilitate deals between project developers and Japanese companies.“This is part of a broader pattern,” said Talia Calnek-Sugin, the associate director of legislative and administrative advocacy for the Sierra Club’s Beyond Dirty Fuels campaign, in an email.“This is helping proposed US export facilities reach a final investment decision (FID) that might otherwise not get enough contracts to attract financing, contradicting the Biden Administration’s climate goals and international fossil fuel finance policy,”

Montney Natural Gas Output Poised to Reach 9.2 Bcf/d on Pipeline Expansions - Processing plant and pipeline additions should enable natural gas production to more than double in the Montney Shale, according to the Canada Energy Regulator (CER). Expansions by 46 plants have grown capacity in northeastern British Columbia (BC) along the Alaska Highway to 9.2 Bcf/d, or 59% more than the current 5.8 Bcf/d processing volume, a CER survey conducted for CER by Calgary investment dealer Peters & Co. found. Pipeline capacity is poised to nearly double to 11.5 Bcf/d, including additions by Enbridge Energy Inc.’s Westcoast network plus TC Energy Corp.’s Coastal GasLink (CGL) conduit for the LNG Canada export project. CGL, 70% completed, is forecast to start operating at about 1 Bcf/d. However, the 670-kilometer (400-mile) delivery route has built-in ability to grow to 5 Bcf/d with compressor additions to its 48 inch diameter system, as LNG Canada adds export production lines. “Northeastern BC has significant existing gas plant capacity and pipeline egress to support future development,” the survey noted. The survey was commissioned by the NEBC Connector proposal for a 98,000 b/d Montney natural gas liquids line. The CER requested the survey to adapt its environmental cumulative effects assessment of NEBC Connector, sponsored by Toronto-based Brookfield Infrastructure LP. NEBC is a native sore spot in the outlook for Montney supplies for BC liquefied natural gas projects. A 2021 court verdict won by Blueberry First Nation, near Fort St. John in the Montney heartland, bans new industry permits until the BC the government agrees to provide a native role in granting them. While banning new provincial permits, the court verdict did not halt industry. The BC government rescued 195 previously approved natural gas and forestry projects last fall by paying Blueberry compensation of $49 million. The Peters survey said land disturbances above the Montney formation would be limited because of environmentally favorable side effects of unconventional output, which uses horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. Counting 13,000 vertical wells drilled before unconventional techniques began in 2005, total cumulative industry intrusions are projected to grow to 46-58 square miles, or 0.4-0.6% of the 10,400-square-mile BC Montney region by 2065. Annual well counts are forecast to vary from 400-1,000, depending on the success of LNG exports.

Alberta Advances Multiple Carbon Storage Hubs -- Capturing carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from industrial and oil and gas activities is already a big challenge but having a safe, permanent place to store them is vital if the goal is to meet or exceed emission-reduction targets. To this end, Alberta, home to most of Canada’s oil and gas industry, including the vast oil sands, is steadily advancing plans to develop carbon sequestration hubs and underground reservoirs across the province in parallel with above-ground CO₂ capture plants and pipelines. In separate announcements this year, the province gave the go ahead to 25 projects to develop sequestration hubs and determine if they can achieve commercial viability. In today’s blog, we consider Alberta’s latest efforts to push forward with its emissions capture and storage plans. Alberta has long been a leader in the production of hydrocarbons — and the emissions associated with them. Although there has been intensified focus on increasing production of oil and gas in light of the current North American and global focus on energy security, and in response to greatly improved prices for oil and gas, Canada’s producers and provincial regulatory agencies have also kept their eye on the ball in terms of advancing plans to reduce and capture anthropogenic-CO₂ (A-CO₂) emissions — those associated with human activities. In the year or so since we last looked at this topic, Alberta has been advancing legislation and laying the groundwork for the development of carbon sequestration hubs through which A-CO₂ would be injected deep into underground reservoirs where it would be permanently sequestered “forever and for always.” With the pressure being increased on the oil and gas sector by the Canadian federal government to meet emission-reduction targets by 2030, determining sites for sequestration has taken on added urgency. In Part 1 of this series, we undertook a high-level review of the A-CO₂ emissions profile for Canada and its oil and natural gas industry. In that discussion, we mentioned that Canada accounts for under 2% of global A-CO₂emissions, a share which has been falling slowly over the past 20 years as emissions and the share of emissions from other major developing economies such as China have been growing steadily. We also noted that even though Canada’s overall emissions profile has held relatively steady over the past two decades, decreases in some sectors of its economy have been offset by a rising share of emissions from the oil and gas sector, from around 20% in 2000 to near 27% in 2019, with a majority of that increase driven by emissions from Alberta’s oil sands. Finally, we discussed three project proposals put forward by major energy players that would capture and sequester emissions from the oil sands and other energy-related activities. We moved past proposals in Part 2 by examining active and pending capture/sequestration projects in the oil and gas sector. The first of these is the Weyburn-Midale site in southern Saskatchewan, at which captured and injected A-CO₂ is used for enhanced oil recovery (EOR). In operation since the late 1990s, it remains one of the most successful carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) projects in the world, handling emissions from a synthetic fuels plant just across the U.S.-Canada border in North Dakota, as well as a nearby coal-fired power plant in southern Saskatchewan. Aspects of the use of A-CO₂ for EOR projects can be found in our The Air That I Breathe series. Two other operating projects, Quest, operated by Shell Canada at its Scotford Upgrader, and the Alberta Carbon Trunkline (ACTL), which transports captured A-CO₂ for EOR operations in Alberta, continue to advance the goal of capturing an ever-increasing share of emissions in the province. Another Shell project in advanced planning is Polaris, which would capture additional emissions from its Scotford Upgrader as well as establish a larger carbon sequestration hub for use by third-party emitters. Two other initiatives being advanced involve the production ofblue hydrogen from natural gas, which would capture the emissions associated with the production process. Readers that want to learn more about the technologies, challenges, and economics of CCS should reference ourWay Down in the Hole series.

Doctors decry 'record profits' for fossil fuel companies as climate change weighs on global health - Doctors are taking aim at the fossil fuels industry, placing blame for the world's most dire health problems on the companies that continue to seek oil and gas profits even as climate change worsens heat waves, intensifies flooding and roils people's mental health. "The burning of fossil fuels is creating a health crisis that I can't fix by the time I see patients in my emergency department," said Dr. Renee Salas, summarizing the findings of a report published Tuesday in The Lancet. "Fossil fuel companies are making record profits while my patients suffer from their downstream health harms." Salas, an emergency medical physician at Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, is one of nearly 100 authors who contributed to the prestigious medical journal's annual report on climate change and health. The report accuses fossil fuel purveyors — and the governments that subsidize them — of subverting "efforts to deliver a low carbon, healthy, liveable future" and demands that world leaders pursue a health-centered approach to solving the climate crisis. The report's theme reflects a growing frustration and helplessness expressed by medical professionals left to deal with the impacts of climate change as world leaders struggle to address the root cause. "The report highlights the harm the fossil fuel industry has really wreaked in creating this crisis," said Dr. Jerry Abraham, the director and chief vaccinologist at Kedren Community Health Center in Los Angeles, who was not involved in writing the report. "Foe is a harsh word, but it has to be used." As in previous reports, the 2022 Lancet Countdown paints a grim picture of how climate change is threatening people's health and the care systems that are supposed to help manage it, calling its latest findings the "direst" yet. This year's report leaves little ambiguity about who the doctors view as responsible for the harms and stresses they feel in clinics. The annual report catalogs the health impacts of change worldwide and a separate policy brief outlines impacts in the U.S. According to these reports:

• Heat-related deaths worldwide have increased by about 68% since the beginning of the millennium, according to data comparing 2000-04 to 2017-21, when the issue was made worse by Covid-19. Extreme heat was linked to 98 million cases of hunger worldwide. In the U.S., heat-related deaths for people over age 65 are estimated to have increased by about 74% during that same time period.
• Tiny particles released into the air as pollution during fossil fuel use were responsible for 1.2 million deaths in 2020. About 11,840 U.S. deaths were attributable to particulate air pollution, according to Salas.
• Changes in temperature, precipitation and population since the 1950s have increased the transmissibility of diseases spread by mosquitoes, with dengue fever, chikungunya and Zika all up by roughly 12%. In the U.S., the transmissibility of dengue fever was about 64% higher.
• Climate change is taking a toll on mental health. "There's strong evidence that climate change is associated with more depression, stress, post-traumatic stress disorder and anxiety," said Natasha K. DeJarnett, a lead author of the U.S. policy brief and an assistant professor of medicine at the University of Louisville.

Borders Tories toe the line in fracking vote | The Southern Reporter --Labour’s motion to force a vote on a bill to ban fracking was defeated, despite complete confusion in the Tory camp over whether it was being treated as a confidence vote in Liz Truss’ collapsing leadership. There were reports of Conservative backbenchers being “manhandled” and “bullied” into the “No” lobby, and conflicting reports of whether or not the party’s whips had resigned following the alleged stramash. Borders MPs John Lamont and David Mundell both voted with the government, even though several high-ranking Tories, including Scottish Secretary Alister Jack, elected not to vote. The Southern asked both Mr Lamont and Mr Mundell why they both voted against what could have seen the end of the ecologically unpopular method of extracting gas and oil from shale rock, a practice that was stopped in 2019 after an outcry from environmental groups. Mr Lamont has elected not to answer, but Mr Mundell said: “I voted with the government on Wednesday because the motion put down by the Labour Party was in fact a procedural attempt by the Opposition to hijack the Order Paper and play political games with legislation. The issue of fracking is, of course, also a matter devolved to the Scottish Parliament.” In Scotland, fracking is a devolved matter, and there has been a ban since 2017. A few days is now a lifetime in politics … and Ms Truss resigned at the end of last week, a day after sacking Kwasi Kwarteng for signing off on the mini-budget which crashed the economy. Amid calls from the opposition parties for an immediate general election, the Tories are intent on installing a new leader instead, with former Chancellor Rishi Sunak leading the race. Speaking ahead of Boris Johnson’s decision not to stand for a second time, Mr Mundell was clear on who he didn’t want to be Prime Minister, but less clear on who he would be supporting. He said: “Nominations are not due to close until Monday and I will decide between the candidates once it is confirmed who they are. I will not, however, be supporting Mr Johnson.”

Simon Fell and Tim Farron reject fracking | The Westmorland Gazette - On Wednesday evening Labour brought a vote on whether MPs should get a say on the Government's fracking plans. Labour wanted to put down a bill banning shale gas extraction, which is the controversial method of forcing water down a pipe into the ground and has caused small earth tremors. Either on the record or off the record, many Conservative MPs agreed or sympathised with this. However, it was turned into a confidence vote on Wednesday, where if Conservative MPs did not vote against the bill they would be kicked out of the parliamentary party. This then turned into chaos on Wednesday evening during the vote as Conservative whips were unclear in communicating if this was or was not a confidence vote. Simon Fell voted against the motion, in an apparent u-turn from his previous voting record of being opposed to fracking. He received criticism of this on Twitter from Cumbria County councillor Sol Wielkopolski who asked him 'what changed your mind?' Mr Fell replied: "I didn't. I voted against what was a confidence motion in the Government and then for an amendment saying that fracking should ONLY ever take place when a community consents to it. My opposition hasn't shifted a jot." When asked what he would like the new Government to do about fracking, Mr Fell said: "I would like the Government to drop it altogether. It won't help our short-term energy needs, it hasn't proven any safer than when we put in the moratorium, and our time is better spent on growing our renewable sectors. "Locally, there is huge potential for more wind, hydrogen, tidal and nuclear. That is good for our energy supplies, great for local jobs and our economy too." The Liberal Democrat MP for Westmorland and Lonsdale Tim Farron said: "Cumbria is a place where shale gas is present and it could be fracked. It's dangerous because it makes the ground geologically active." Mr Farron has long been opposed to fracking and both he and Mr Fell have advocated building a tidal barrage across Morecambe Bay as an alternative.

Mild weather sees 11% drop in gas demand for September - Gas Networks Ireland has said that gas demand in September fell by 11% compared to August due to mild conditions and above-average temperatures in many areas. However, in a report issued today (Monday, October 24), the company said that natural gas usage was up 6% on September 2021 when Covid-19-related public health restrictions were still in place. Year-on-year gas demand increased by 85% in the air travel sector, 27% in retail, 25% for leisure and sports arenas and 15% in hotels. There was an 80% jump in demand from the residential sector compared to August. As students returned to schools and colleges, usage in the education sector was up 63% on the previous month. Gas generated 55% of Ireland’s electricity in September, down 14% on August and up 12% when compared to September last year. Wind generated 25% of Ireland’s electricity in September, down 32% on August, but up 19% on September last year. Coal generated 10% more of Ireland’s electricity in September than it did in August. The Gas Networks Ireland report also includes data for the third quarter (Q3) of the year. From July until the end of September, gas demand increased by 10% when compared to the same period last year, and fell by 2% on the previous quarter.

Gas consumption in Slovakia fell by a quarter - spectator.sme.sk -In August and September, the consumption of gas in Slovakia decreased by 24 percent compared to the five-year average, according to the gas distribution company SPP-Distribúcia data. These take into consideration the real, that is, the physical consumption of gas by consumers. "Slovakia demonstrated the fulfilment of the European Council regulation on coordinated measures to reduce gas demand," stated the Economy Ministry. R The council introduced a voluntary goal of reducing gas consumption by 15 percent compared to their average gas consumption in the period from August 1 to March 31 during five consecutive years, i.e. between 2017 and 2022. The plan was to prepare for the coming winter or possible disruptions of gas supplies from Russia this winter, arguing that the country is using energy supplies as a weapon. The idea was also to fill gas storage facilities to 80 percent capacity by November 2022, and to 90 percent in the following years. Dependent on Russian gas at 85 percent for a long time, Slovakia has also been diversifying gas imports for a few months following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. More than 60 percent of Russian gas, reduced amounts of which continue to flow to Slovakia, is understood to have been replaced. Čítajte viac: https://spectator.sme.sk/c/23041689/gas-consumption-in-slovakia-fell-by-a-quarter.html

EU Leaders Place Price Caps on Natural Gas, Design New LNG Benchmark -European natural gas prices continued to dip after the 27 European Union (EU) leaders agreed to a “roadmap” of emergency measures, including capping prices on gas sales, to help meet Europe’s energy crisis. Following many hours of negotiations, agreement was reached on several measures, including a proposal for a temporary price limit on gas transactions at the Dutch benchmark, Title Transfer Facility (TTF), after Germany conceded to the idea. “There is a lot of work now ahead of us, but the roadmap is very clear,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said.At least 15 of the 27 EU member countries including France, Italy, Poland and Spain supported some type of price cap, while other countries including Germany, Ireland and the Netherlands opposed the idea.Germany and the Netherlands requested more guarantees to handle potential supply risks linked to capping prices. German leaders had been warning for weeks that potential impacts to Europe’s price premium over LNG could send cargoes to Asia and other markets.Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte also expressed doubts that a price cap could be launched quickly enough to begin providing relief to households by the start of winter. “We really have to assess all the pros and cons and the ramifications,” Rutte said.EU members also agreed to cap the price of gas used for power generation under a scheme dubbed the “Iberian mechanism,” which was similarly introduced in Spain and Portugal earlier in the year.European gas and power prices made a brief rise Thursday over fears “about the situation of the upcoming winter” analysis with Energie Danmark wrote, but those gains were erased Friday. The TTF price for gas in December dropped almost $3 to around $41.51/MMBtu.By Monday, the TTF price for December gas dropped more than $2/MMBtu to close around $39 as markets tracked the expected impacts from the EC’s decisions.Members agreed to pursue the creation of a new liquefied natural gas price index that would help separate imported gas from the TTF. Details on a timeline for the index’s development weren’t announced after the European Commission meeting, but von der Leyen said its design would “better reflect the LNG price situation.” EU leaders expect next winter to be worse than the 2022-2023 winter, and approved the Commission’s proposal for a joint purchasing scheme. Under the plan, at least 15% of any gas volumes purchased would be used to fill storage facilities for the next 2023-2024 winter season.

EU countries look to map out path to gas price cap - (Reuters) – European Union energy ministers will discuss a bloc-wide gas price cap on Tuesday, attempting to navigate their next steps although it is likely to be weeks before any final decisions. Europe has been scrambling to tame high energy prices after Russia slashed gas supplies following its invasion of Ukraine – sending gas prices skywards and pushing European power prices to record levels in August. With no legal proposal for a price cap on the table yet, ministers meeting in Luxembourg are expected to debate the principles of how an EU gas price limit could work, as well as possible drawbacks. But gas costs have tumbled in recent days, amid mild weather and as countries have filled storage tanks. Some EU diplomats suggested this could dampen momentum to cap energy costs, but others said a cap was still needed to guard against potential price spikes as Europe heads into winter. The European Commission last week asked for countries’ approval to draft a proposal for a price limit on trades at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) Dutch gas hub, which could be triggered if prices spiked. A few days later, EU country leaders requested “concrete decisions” from their ministers and Brussels on this idea. EU diplomats said Tuesday’s talks could give the Commission the green light on that proposal, but some countries were seeking more details on how a price cap would work.

Shell and Deltic Energy to start drilling on new North Sea prospect - Oil major Shell has announced plans to explore the Pensacola gas prospects in theUK North Sea, with drilling starting mid-November 2022. Shell and Deltic Energy, an oil and gas exploration company, have confirmed they will relocate the Maersk Resilient drilling rig to the site.A statement from Deltic Energy said: “The company looks forward to providing a further update when the rig is on-site at Pensacola and drilling has started.” Pensacola has approximately 309 billion cubic feet (bcf) of potentially recoverable gas resources. Deltic previously stated that if successful, it will be “one of the highest impact exploration targets to be drilled in the gas basin” in the Southern North Sea recently.

Europe’s natural gas prices drop to lowest levels since June 2022 - Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has, among other things, sparked an energy crisis in Europe, with countries scrambling to find alternative sources of fuel amid concerns that Russia will shut off gas taps as winter approaches. However, fears of winter energy shortages in Europe seem to be abating with unusually mild weather for the time of the year. In addition, the scramble to fill in the inventory of natural gas, along with steps the EU took to alleviate the energy crisis in the short term, seems to be bearing fruit. On October 24, news of the natural gas prices in Europe falling to €100/MWh (~$98.35/MWh) hit Twitter, as Welt’s Holger Zschaepitz shared the news that filled gas storages and arrivals of liquified natural gas eased concerns over supply shortages. Benchmark futures for European natural gas fell by 12%, now down over 70% from their highs seen in August of this year. While the weather is expected to remain mild throughout October and possibly early November, more breathing room has been given to battered EU economies, which are still rushing to fill in gas inventories.

Wave of LNG tankers overwhelms Europe and hits natural gas prices - The U.S. is exporting more LNG to Europe as a result of Russia's war in Ukraine and cuts made to natural gas supplies ahead of winter, but there has been a buildup of LNG vessels waiting to unload at ports with European infrastructure unable to handle the increased LNG shipments. There are 641 LNG vessels operating in the world and 60 of them are waiting to discharge their fuel in Europe. These LNG tankers have been idling or slowly sailing around northwest Europe, the Mediterranean, and the Iberian Peninsula, according to MarineTraffic. One is anchored at the Suez Canal. Eight LNG vessels that came from the U.S. are underway to Spain's Huelva port. "The wave of LNG tankers has overwhelmed the ability of the European regasification facilities to unload the cargoes in a timely manner," said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. These delays postpone the tankers' return to the Gulf Coast of the United States to pick up the next load, according to Lipow, and as a result, natural gas inventories rise more than the market expected. The underlying infrastructure issue is a lack of European regasification capacity due to a shortage of regasification plants and pipelines connecting countries that have regasification facilities. As a result, the amount of LNG on the water — floating storage — increases and in turn drives down the price of natural gas . Rousseau said the increase in floating storage, with vessels needed to move capacity around the globe tied up for longer, has contributed to an approximate doubling in LNG tanker rates year over year. The cut in vessel capacity of 10% of the overall fleet available for use comes at a time when the majority of LNG vessels are linked to long-term contracts, and has left the spot market thin with vessels. This is fueling prices to $500,000 a day. Energy experts tell CNBC they are keeping an eye on an EU LNG price cap. The cap was discussed last Thursday even as prices have come down. "The price cap potentially pushes traders out of the market which would impact future supply arriving in Europe," Rousseau said. European gas prices had soared above 340 euros ($332.6) per megawatt hour in late August, but this week dipped below $100 for the first time since Russia cut supplies. Before the war, the price had been as low as 30 euros. Russia, which supplies a large portion of natural gas to Europe, cut gas supplies as a response to sanctions after the country's war with Ukraine.

Shipping Liquified Methane Costs $450,000 Per Day - The cost of shipping liquified methane gas (also known as LNG) to Europe hit $450,000 per day last week with ships waiting as long as four days just to unload at Western European ports, the Wall Street Journal reports. Brokers say daily cargo prices — which are already as much as fifteen times higher than they were a year ago — could more than double again to $1 million per day as winter approaches. Though physical infrastructure constraints are an issue for deliveries, about half of the existing 650-boat-strong global methane shipping fleet is being used as floating storage.Capital Product Partners CEO Jerry Kalogiratos told the Walls Street Journal, “Certain gas traders are keeping the cargoes because there is no fixed price on them. If gas prices go up, the delivered LNG can be worth millions more and can end up with a different customer that will pay the higher price.”The exorbitant costs of shipping liquified methane gas, and paying such high daily costs just waiting to unload, illustrate how greatly European demand has distorted the global market in the wake of Russia’s war in Ukraine. Efforts to export as much U.S. methane gas to Europe as possible have driven up American methane gas prices and will increase home heating costs for those burning methane gas by 28% over last winter. High prices have also shut out Pakistan from being able to afford gas altogether, causing blackouts in nations responsible for a negligible amountof historic climate pollution but facing the worst impacts of climate change. (Wall Street Journal $)

 Why Russian LNG Exports To Europe Exploded This Summer -- Whereas supplies of Russian pipeline gas--the bulk of Europe’s gas imports before the Ukraine war--are down to a trickle, Europe has been hungrily scooping up Russian LNG. Europe has been working hard to wean itself off Russian energy commodities ever since the latter invaded Ukraine. The European Union has banned Russian coal and plans to block most Russian oil imports by the end of 2022 in a bid to deprive Moscow of an important source of revenue to wage its war in Ukraine.But ditching Russian gas is proving to be more onerous than Europe would have hoped for. Whereas supplies of Russian pipeline gas--the bulk of Europe’s gas imports before the Ukraine war--are down to a trickle, Europe has been hungrily scooping up Russian LNG. The Wall Street Journal has reported that the bloc’s imports of Russian liquefied natural gas jumped by 41% Y/Y in the year through August.“Russian LNG has been the dark horse of the sanctions regime,” Maria Shagina, research fellow at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, has told WSJ. Importers of Russian LNG to Europe have argued that the shipments are not covered by current EU sanctions and that buying LNG from Russia and other suppliers has helped keep European energy prices in check.Maybe Europe’s LNG imports from Russia can be justified on a purely economic basis.Natural gas prices in Europe have plunged over the past few weeks with CNBC reporting that a “Wave of LNG tankers is overwhelming Europe in an energy crisis and hitting natural gas prices.” According to MarineTraffic via CNBC, 60 LNG tankers, or ~10% of the LNG vessels in the world, are currently sailing or anchored around Northwest Europe, the Mediterranean, and the Iberian Peninsula. Such vessels are considered floating LNG storage since they cannot unload, something that is impacting the price of natural gas and freight rates.It’s a fair bet that a good chunk of those vessels originated from the United States.Europe’s natural gas demand has skyrocketed as the EU tries to lower its reliance on Russian natural gas following its invasion of Ukraine. Europe has displaced Asia as the top destination for the U.S. LNG, and now receives 65% of total exports. The EU has pledged to reduce its consumption of Russian natural gas by nearly two-thirds before the year’s end while Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia have vowed to eliminate Russian gas imports outright. Unlike pipeline gas, supercooled LNG is much more flexible and can be shipped from far-flung regions, including the U.S. and Qatar. Europe is not alone here. Shipping data has revealed that China has imported nearly 30% more gas from Russia so far this year, typically at a steep discount. Still, it’s hard to argue that buying Russian LNG even in relatively small quantities is not playing a part in financing Putin’s war machine. Although Russian LNG has accounted for just 8% of the European Union and U.K.’s gas imports since the start of March, the trade runs counter to the EU’s efforts to deprive Russia of fossil-fuel revenue.A lot of blame falls on Switzerland, with 80% of Russian raw materials traded via the Central European nation and its nearly 1,000 commodity firms. Switzerland is an important global financial hub with a thriving commodities sector despite the country being far from all the global trade routes and without access to the sea; no former colonial territories and without any significant raw materials of its own. In fact, Oliver Classen, media officer at the Swiss NGO Public Eye, says that "this sector accounts for a much larger part of the GDP in Switzerland than tourism or the machinery industry." According to a 2018 Swiss government report, commodity trading volume reaches almost $1 trillion ($903.8 billion).

Underwater images show damage to over 50 m (165 feet) of Nord Stream 1 pipeline - (video) Underwater images show an explosion registered as an M2.3 earthquake on the Richter scale on September 26, 2022, damaged more than 50 m (165 feet) of one Nord Stream 1 pipe. There have been several investigations of the gas lines where the explosions took place, the Copenhagen police, the intelligence service PET, and the Danish defense announced in a press release. “The investigations have confirmed that there has been extensive damage to Nord Stream 1 and 2 in Denmark’s exclusive economic zone, and that the damage was caused by heavy explosions,” their joint press release reads. Videos and images made by Swedish Expressen, show at least 50 m (165 feet) of the gas pipeline are missing or have disappeared into the seabed.1 “It’s an extreme force that can bend such thick metal in the way we see,” said Trond Larsen, who controlled the underwater robot that filmed the material. None of the investigations carried out thus far state who blew up the pipelines, leaving people to draw their own conclusions based on the phrase ‘who benefits.’

Nord Stream 1 operator sends ship to survey pipeline damage - (AP) — A ship chartered by the operator of the Nord Stream 1 natural gas pipeline has arrived at the site of last month's explosions under the Baltic Sea to survey the damage, the company said Thursday. Undersea explosions late last month ruptured Nord Stream 1, which until Russia cut off supplies at the end of August was its main supply route to Germany. They also damaged the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which never entered service as Germany suspended its certification process shortly before Russia invaded Ukraine in February. Investigators in Sweden, Denmark and Germany are looking into what happened. Danish officials last week confirmed that there had been “extensive damage” to the pipelines and that the cause of the damage was “powerful explosions.” The leaks occurred in international waters but within the exclusive economic zones of Denmark and Sweden. Investigators haven't yet given any information on who might have been responsible. Nord Stream 1 operator Nord Stream AG, in which Russia's Gazprom has a majority stake, said a specially equipped vessel has arrived at the location of the damage in Sweden's exclusive economic zone. It said survey work on the damaged area is expected to take three to five days. The Swiss-based company said it is still awaiting a Danish decision on permits for damage assessment in that country's exclusive economic zone. The Swedish Armed Forces confirmed to Swedish broadcaster SVT that a Russian ship was on site to carry out investigations for Nord Stream. “We have known about their plans for some time,” said Jimmie Adamsson, the navy's head of communications. “Since it is international water, no permission from the Swedish authorities is needed to carry out this type of investigation." Separately, the Swedish Navy said on Twitter that it was carrying out “supplementary bottom surveys" at the site of the gas leaks using minesweepers. It said that work was not part of the criminal investigation, but didn't elaborate.

Russia blames Britain for pipeline leaks - Russia has accused the British Navy of planning and carrying out attacks on the Nord Stream pipelines. The same unit was also behind a drone attack in Crimea in the morning. Great Britain rejected the claim. The Russian government has accused Britain of being responsible for the explosions at the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines. “According to the available information, representatives of a unit of the British Navy were involved in the planning, preparation and implementation of a terrorist attack in the Baltic Sea on September 26 this year,” the Defense Ministry in Moscow said. The ministry did not provide any evidence for these allegations. The four explosions in the Baltic Sea off the Danish island of Bornholm had torn several leaks in the Nord Stream pipelines. The leaks discovered on September 26 were preceded by explosions. The first underwater investigations confirmed the suspicion of acts of sabotage. The Nord Stream pipelines were out of service at the time of their damage but filled with gas. So far, it has not been proven who is behind the explosions. The Swedish public prosecutor’s office had just announced new investigations into the crime scenes surrounding the gas leaks on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines. Russia has repeatedly complained that it was not included in the international investigation into the leaks allegedly caused by acts of sabotage. The government in London sharply rejected the allegations now being made by Russia against the British Navy. “To distract from their disastrous handling of the illegal invasion of Ukraine, the Russian MoD resorts to spreading false claims of epic proportions,” the British MoD said on Twitter. “This made-up story says more about disputes within the Russian government than about the West.” Former Royal Navy Admiral Chris Parry made similar comments about the Russian allegations. “It’s a blatant lie and we all know it was the Russians,” he told Sky News. “Russian propaganda always blames everyone else for what they actually did themselves.” The British Navy does not have the ability to blow up the gas pipelines. Attack on Black Sea Fleet The Russian government has also accused Britain of involvement in Saturday morning’s drone strikes in Crimea. “This morning at 4:20 a.m. the Kiev regime carried out a terrorist attack on the ships of the Black Sea Fleet,” the Russian Defense Ministry said. Most of the 16 drones were intercepted via Sevastopol. The minesweeper “Iwan Golubez” and installations in a bay were slightly damaged. The “act of terrorism” was carried out by British “specialists” stationed in Ochakiv in the Ukrainian region of Mykolayiv, it said. These British units are also responsible for training Ukrainian special forces for naval operations. The Defense Ministry also said that the ships now being targeted in Sevastopol were being used to protect the convoys exporting Ukrainian grain. Sevastopol is the home port of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. An adviser to the Ukrainian Ministry of the Interior, Anton Herashchenko, told Telegram that “negligent handling of explosives” caused explosions on board four of the fleet’s warships. The information about the events in Sevastopol cannot be independently verified. conflicting parties as a source Information on the course of the war, shelling and casualties provided by official bodies of the Russian and Ukrainian conflict parties cannot be directly checked by an independent body in the current situation.

UK rejects Russian claims over Nord Stream blast - Russia's defence ministry has said that British navy personnel blew up the Nord Stream gas pipelines last month, a claim that London said was false and designed to distract from Russian military failures in Ukraine. Russia did not give evidence for its claim that a leading NATO member had sabotaged critical Russian infrastructure amid the worst crisis in relations between the West and Russia since the depths of the Cold War. The Russian ministry said that "British specialists" from the same unit directed Ukrainian drone attacks on ships of the Russian Black Sea fleet in Crimea earlier today that it said were largely repelled by Russian forces, with minor damage to a Russian minesweeper. "According to available information, representatives of this unit of the British Navy took part in the planning, provision and implementation of a terrorist attack in the Baltic Sea on September 26 this year - blowing up the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines," the ministry said. Britain denied the claim. "To detract from their disastrous handling of the illegal invasion of Ukraine, the Russian Ministry of Defence is resorting to peddling false claims of an epic scale," the British defence ministry said. "This invented story, says more about arguments going on inside the Russian government than it does about the West." Maria Zakharova at UN Headquarters in New York earlier this month Maria Zakharova, a spokeswoman for Russian foreign ministry, said Moscow will seek reaction from the UN Security Council saying on social media Moscow wanted to draw attention to "a series of terrorist attacks committed against the Russian Federation in the Black and Baltic Seas, including the involvement of Britain in them". Russia, deeply isolated by Western nations since its 24 February invasion of Ukraine, has previously blamed the West for the explosions that ruptured the Russian-built Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pipelines on the bed of the Baltic Sea. But it had not previously given specific details of who it thinks was responsible for the damage to the pipelines, previously the largest routes for Russian gas supplies to Europe. A sharp drop in pressure on both pipelines was registered on 26 September and seismologists detected explosions, triggering a wave of speculation about sabotage to one of Russia's most important energy corridors. Reuters has not been able to immediately verify any of the conflicting claims about who was to blame for the damage.

 Taibbi: Who Blew Up The Nord Stream Pipelines? - About a month ago, on September 26th, explosions rocked the undersea “Nord Stream” natural gas pipelines connecting Russia to Germany, sending boiling methane rushing to the surface in masses big enough to be seen from space.We’ve all seen the video of Joe Biden promising last February, “There will no longer be a Nord Stream 2” and “We will bring an end to it.”The history of America’s bellicose threats with regard to Nord Stream were far more expansive than just a clip or two.Stopping Nord Stream was a central goal of American foreign policy for nearly a decade, with politicians from both parties pounding the table to stop it, and all that history was disappeared the moment the blasts took place.We can’t say yet who blew up the pipelines. Matt Orfalea’s video captures three troubling things we already know about the Nord Stream blasts:

Fears over Russian threat to Norway's energy infrastructure - (AP) — Norwegian oil and gas workers normally don’t see anything more threatening than North Sea waves crashing against the steel legs of their offshore platforms. But lately they have noticed a more troubling sight: unidentified drones buzzing in the skies overhead. With Norway replacing Russia as Europe's main source of natural gas, military experts suspect the unmanned aircraft are Moscow's doings. They list espionage, sabotage and intimidation as possible motives for the drone flights. The Norwegian government has sent warships, coastguard vessels and fighter jets to patrol around the offshore facilities. Norway's national guard stationed soldiers around onshore refineries that also were buzzed by drones. Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre has invited the navies of NATO allies Britain, France and Germany to help address what could be more than a Norwegian problem. Precious little of the offshore oil that provides vast income for Norway is used by the country's 5.4 million inhabitants. Instead, it powers much of Europe. Natural gas is another commodity of continental significance. “The value of Norwegian gas to Europe has never been higher,” Ståle Ulriksen, a researcher at the Royal Norwegian Naval Academy, said. “As a strategic target for sabotage, Norwegian gas pipelines are probably the highest value target in Europe.” Closures of airports, and evacuations of an oil refinery and a gas terminal last week due to drone sightings caused huge disruptions. But with winter approaching in Europe, there is worry the drones may portend a bigger threat to the 9,000 kilometers (5,600 miles) of gas pipelines that spider from Norway's sea platforms to terminals in Britain and mainland Europe. Since the start of the war in Ukraine in late February, European Union countries have scrambled to replace their Russian gas imports with shipments from Norway. The suspected sabotage of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines in the Baltic Sea last month happened a day before Norway opened a new Baltic pipeline to Poland. Amund Revheim, who heads the North Sea and environment group for Norway's South West Police force, said his team interviewed more than 70 offshore workers who have spotted drones near their facilities. “The working thesis is that they are controlled from vessels or submarines nearby,” Revheim said. Winged drones have a longer range, but investigators considered credible a sighting of a helicopter-style bladed model near the Sleipner platform, located in a North Sea gas field 250 kilometers (150 miles) from the coast. Norwegian police have worked closely with military investigators who are analyzing marine traffic. Some platform operators have reported seeing Russian-flagged research vessels in close vicinity. Revheim said no pattern has been established from legal marine traffic and he is concerned about causing unnecessary, disruptive worry for workers. But Ulriksen, of the naval academy, said the distinction between Russian civilian and military ships is narrow and the reported research vessels could fairly be described as “spy ships.” The arrest of at least seven Russian nationals caught either carrying or illegally flying drones over Norwegian territory has raised tensions. On Wednesday, the same day a drone sighting grounded planes in Bergen, Norway’s second-biggest city, the Norwegian Police Security Service took over the case from local officers. “We have taken over the investigation because it is our job to investigate espionage and enforce sanction rules against Russia,” Martin Bernsen, an official with the service known by the Norwegian acronym PST. He said the “sabotage or possible mapping” of energy infrastructure was an ongoing concern.

Gas production temporarily halted at Risha Field in Jordan— The "temporary stoppage" of gas production at Risha field is due to the power generation plant reaching the end of its operational life, a source at the Energy Ministry said on Friday. The Risha power generation plant consumes some 18 million cubic feet (mcf) of gas per day, constituting around 56 per cent of the gas field’s daily production capacity of 32mcf, according to a ministry statement. The source added that extending the lifespan of two gas units at the plant was thoroughly considered by relevant partners in the sector. However, this option turned out to be economically infeasible due to the plant’s low efficiency as well as the additional costs placed on the National Electric Power Company, which currently stand at JD2.8 million per year. The source added that stakeholders are currently considering all available options to resume natural gas production at the field as soon as possible in a way that serves the public interest. Ministry data revealed that a feasibility study was conducted on the installation of a special pipeline from Risha Field to consumption centres in the central and northern regions of the Kingdom. The study turned out to be impracticable due to the long distance, estimated at 370 kilometres, and the low production rate of the Risha gas field, the ministry said. The option may be adopted, however, if production increases to levels higher than 150mcf. The source added that private sector investors are now welcome to transfer gas from Risha to consumption centres via tankers after pressing and/or liquefying the gas to provide the resource to consumers in the central and northern regions of the Kingdom, as per agreements signed between the National Petroleum Company and some investors. Such a step will contribute to increasing reliance on local resources, expanding job

QatarEnergy announces Shell as partner for giant LNG project - QatarEnergy’s chief executive on Sunday named Shell a partner on the company’s North Field South (NFS) expansion, part of the world’s largest LNG project. Shell will have a 9.3% share of the project and QatarEnergy will keep 75%, Saad al-Kaabi, who is also Qatar’s minister for energy, said at a news conference. The development contract for NFS would be awarded in the first quarter of 2023, Kaabi said. QatarEnergy was open to discussing working with Shell in all energy sectors, he added. Last month, QatarEnergy selected TotalEnergies as the first international partner in the NFS expansion project The North Field is part of the world’s biggest gas field that Qatar shares with Iran, which calls its share South Pars. State-owned QatarEnergy earlier this year signed deals for North Field East, the first and larger phase of the two-phase North Field expansion plan, which includes six LNG trains that will ramp up Qatar’s liquefaction capacity from 77 million tons per annum to 126 million tons by 2027. TotalEnergies, Shell, Exxon, ConocoPhillips and Eni took stakes in the North Field East expansion phase, and last month TotalEnergies was named as the first partner in the North Field South project. QatarEnergy had said partners for the North Field South would be selected from those already involved in the first phase.

Sinopec Announces Major Discovery of Shale Gas in Sichuan Basin: First Breakthrough in Cambrian Qiongzhusi Formation - Sinopec Southwest Oil & Gas Company of China Petroleum ("Sinopec Southwest") & Chemical Corporation (HKG: 0386, "Sinopec") has discovered new shale gas reserves in the Jinshi 103HF exploratory well deployed in the Sichuan Basin. With a daily natural gas production reaching 258,600 cubic meters and an evaluated resource capacity of 387.8 billion cubic meters, it is a major breakthrough for China's shale gas exploration, and the first discovery in the Cambrian Qiongzhusi Formation. The find has significantly expanded shale gas reserves and will further promote shale gas exploration and production in the Sichuan Basin. The Sichuan Basin is composed of two main formations, the Longmaxi and Qiongzhusi. The former has seen significant exploration and production including China's first deep shale gas field, Weirong, while Qiongzhusi boasts the most potential for future exploration. The breakthrough will provide a strong impetus for expanding shale gas exploration and development from the single formation to reach new formations and field types, and contribute to build a national natural gas (shale gas) reserve with 100 billion cubic meters of capacity in the Sichuan and Chongqing region. Sinopec Southwest has shifted from the traditional method of seeking shale gas in organic rich black shale and established new evaluation standards for the Cambrian shale beds, which led to the discovery of the silty shale gas exploration target layer. Faced by the challenges of the thin shale layer, large longitudinal stress difference and difficulty in scaled transformation, the company has implemented a new fracturing process and fracturing fluid system to achieve multi-stage fracturing transformation. In the past decade, Sinopec Southwest has advanced oil and gas exploration and development, with major achievements including the completion of the world's first ultra-deep, high-sulfur reef gas field, the Yuanba gas field, and the identification of China's first deep shale gas field, Weirong shale gas field. The company has implemented new reserves of the scale of over 100 billion cubic meters, including Hexingchang Xujiahe, Yongchuan Longmaxi and Jingyan Qiongzhusi formations. Its annual natural gas production has increased from 2.82 billion cubic meters in 2012 to 8.001 billion cubic meters in 2021, with a cumulative production of 52.95 billion cubic meters, which makes the subsidiary the largest natural gas producer in the Sinopec Group.

IEA: The Rapid Growth Of Natural Gas Demand Is Coming To An End - The world is investing hundreds of billions of U.S. dollars every year in renewable energy and other clean energy solutions, but it needs more than a trillion U.S. dollars in investments annually if it still stands a chance of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050. These are some of the key findings in the World Energy Outlook 2022 published bythe International Energy Agency (IEA) this week. Deployment of renewable energy sources in electricity is set to bring peak demand for coal and natural gas by the end of this decade, as the ongoing energy crisis pushes governments to adopt stronger policies to support clean energy and become less dependent on fossil fuels, especially after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, according to the agency. For the first time ever, a World Energy Outlook scenario from the IEA based on the current government policies and settings has global demand for every fossil fuelshowing a peak or plateau, the IEA said. Even natural gas, whose demand was previously expected to continue rising, could now join coal and oil in peaking around 2030, according to the IEA’s latest estimates.In the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), coal use is set to fall within the next few years, natural gas demand is expected to reach a plateau by the end of the decade, and rising sales of electric vehicles (EVs) mean that oil demand will level off in the mid-2030s before ebbing slightly by mid-century.“One of the effects of the current crisis is that the era of rapid growth in global gas demand draws to a close,” the IEA’s Executive Director Fatih Birol said.“In Europe, climate policies accelerate the shift away from gas. New supply brings prices down by the mid-2020s, and LNG becomes even more important to gas security,” Birol added.The recent rise in coal is small and only temporary, the IEA’s latest analysis shows. At the same time, renewables are expected to continue surging, eating into the share of coal and gas in the power mix.The current energy crisis could be the turning point for an even greater adoption of renewables, as domestically-produced clean energy will reduce reliance on imported fossil fuels. “Government responses around the world promise to make this a historic and definitive turning point towards a cleaner, more affordable and more secure energy system,” Birol said.“The environmental case for clean energy needed no reinforcement, but the economic arguments in favour of cost-competitive and affordable clean technologies are now stronger – and so too is the energy security case. Today’s alignment of economic, climate and security priorities has already started to move the dial towards a better outcome for the world’s people and for the planet,” said the head of the agency. In the World Energy Outlook 2022, the IEA said that electricity generation from renewables needs to see one of the largest increases in investment in the Net Zero Emissions (NZE) Scenario, rising from $390 billion in recent years to $1.3 trillion by 2030. It would be equal to the highest level ever spent on fossil fuel supply, $1.3 trillion spent on fossil fuels in 2014, the IEA said.

Baker Hughes CEO Forecasts ‘Multi-Year Upturn’ in Global Upstream Spending - The executive team of Houston-based Baker Hughes Co. acknowledged there were challenges during the third quarter of 2022, but overall the team remains optimistic about the emerging upcycle, with a continuing bullish view for LNG. The oilfield services (OFS) giant operates around the world in four segments: OFS, Oilfield Equipment (OFE), Turbomachinery & Process Solutions (TPS), and Digital Solutions (DS). CEO Lorenzo Simonelli led the one-hour conference call with analysts last week, reiterating comments he had made during the second quarter conference call. “The macro outlook has grown increasingly uncertain,” he told analysts. “The global economy is dealing with the strongest inflationary pressures since the 1970s, a rising interest rate environment and sizable fluctuations in global currencies. “Despite these economic challenges, we remain constructive on the outlook for oil and gas, and believe that underlying fundamentals remain supportive of a multi-year upturn in global upstream spending.” Global operators continue to demonstrate “a great deal of financial discipline, which we expect to translate into a more durable upstream spending cycle, even in the face of an unpredictable commodity price environment.”

Europe’s Energy Crisis Is Sending Leaders to Africa for Help - European leaders have been converging on Africa’s capital cities, eager to find alternatives to Russian natural gas — sparking hope among their counterparts in Africa that the invasion of Ukraine may tilt the scales in the continent’s unequal relationship with Europe, attracting a new wave of gas investments despite pressure to pivot to renewables.In September, Poland’s president arrived in Senegal in pursuit of gas deals. In May, the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, came seeking the same thing and in recent weeks told the German Parliament that Europe’s energy crisis necessitated working “together with countries where there is the possibility of developing new gas fields,” while keeping pledges to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.“With the war, it’s a U-turn,” The flurry of European overtures has led to new or fast-tracked energy projects, with talk of more to come. The hope in African capitals is that Europe’s appetite will mean the financing of gas facilities not just for export but for use at home. In parts of the continent, the economic stakes are enormous. Italian government ministers have accompanied executives from Eni, one of the largest energy companies in the world, to Algeria, Angola and the Republic of Congo as well as to Mozambique, where a natural-gas terminal operated by Eni is expected to begin supplying gas to Europe in a matter of days. Eni is now discussing an additional terminal with the Mozambican government.And in recent weeks, officials from the Democratic Republic of Congo have embarked on an international marketing tour to draw the attention of U.S. and European companies to new oil and gas blocks they have put up for auction. Climate activists have denounced the auction because it includes oil blocks that overlap a gorilla sanctuary as well as fragile peatlands that store immense amounts of carbon dioxide, a planet-warming greenhouse gas.In interviews, African leaders lamented that it had taken a war, thousands of miles away in Ukraine, to give them bargaining power on energy deals, and they described what they saw as a double standard. Europe, after all, used not just natural gas, but far dirtier fuels like coal, for hundreds of years to drive an age of empire-building and industrialization.Their main complaint: Less developed nations should be free to burn more gas in coming years, despite the climate crisis and the need for the world cut back on fossil fuels, because their citizens deserve higher standards of living and greater access to reliable electricity and other basics. But European and international lenders have made it far too costly, Africa’s leaders say.Instead, European leaders have often seemed to preach to Africans about reducing carbon dioxide emissions while providing little of the necessary financing to help build green energy alternatives, all while continuing to emit far more than Africa.“Just two to three months ago, those same Europeans who were lecturing us on ‘no gas’ say they’ll make a compromise,” said Amani Abou-Zeid, the African Union’s commissioner for energy and infrastructure. “We are trying to survive. But instead we are being infantilized.”A recent political cartoon by the Tanzanian artist Gado, widely shared on social media, captured that frustration after John Kerry, the United States climate envoy, spoke last month at an environmental conference in Senegal. In the cartoon, which paraphrases his speech, Mr. Kerry stands at a podium and delivers a remark that reflects the lecture many African leaders feel they’ve been receiving from Western counterparts. “Well guess what, folks?” he says while smiling next to billowing American flags. “Mother Nature does not measure where the emissions come from. We are all responsible for this.”As he speaks, clouds of pollution puff out of his mouth.

‘Monstrous’ east African oil project will emit vast amounts of carbon, data shows -An oil pipeline under construction in east Africa will produce vast amounts of carbon dioxide, according to new analysis. The project will result in 379m tonnes of climate-heating pollution, according to an expert assessment, more than 25 times the combined annual emissions of Uganda and Tanzania, the host nations.The East African crude oil pipeline (EACOP) will transport oil drilled in a biodiverse national park in Uganda more than 870 miles to a port in Tanzania for export. The main backers of the multibillion dollar project are the French oil company TotalEnergies and the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC). Environmental assessments by the EACOP consortium were approved by the host governments, but only the construction and operation of the pipeline were considered.The new analysis, by the Climate Accountability Institute (CAI), found construction and operation contributed only 1.8% of the full emissions of the project when taking into account overseas transport, refining and burning of the 848m barrels of oil by end users. It considered the 25-year lifespan of the project and refining in Europe and China. In the years of peak oil flow, the associated emissions would be more than double those of Uganda and Tanzania in 2020.Richard Heede, at CAI, said: “It is time for TotalEnergies to abandon the monstrous EACOP that promises to worsen the climate crisis, waste billions of dollars that could be used for good, bring mayhem to human settlements and wildlife along the pipeline’s path.”Heede described EACOP as a “mid-sized carbon bomb”. In May, the Guardian revealed that world’s biggest fossil fuel firms were quietly planning scores of carbon bomb oil and gas projects that would drive the climate past internationally agreed temperature limits, with catastrophic global impacts.Omar Elmawi, coordinator of the Stop EACOP campaign, said: “EACOP and the associated oilfields in Uganda are a climate bomb that is being camouflaged us as an economic enabler to Uganda and Tanzania. It is for the benefit of people, nature and climate to stop this project.”TotalEnergies said that, as a pipeline project, “EACOP is neither the legal owner of the oil nor is it the ultimate end user”. It said environmental assessments followed national regulations and that an updated analysis, including oil use, had been performed, but did not provide details. CNOOC did not respond to a request for comment.

Shell terminal exports resume amid Nigeria’s oil production slump — Exports from Shell Plc’s Forcados oil terminal in Nigeria resumed after a 10-week interruption, offering a boost to the government amid tumbling crude production this year. Shipments restarted following the completion of repair work at the coastal facility in the oil-rich Delta state, a spokesman for Shell’s Nigerian unit said in a statement on Thursday night. The company introduced the suspension on Aug. 5 due to problems with a sub-sea hose. Nigeria’s oil output has been declining steadily since the first quarter of 2020, when it was roughly twice as much as it was last month. The West African country produced a daily average of 1.14 million barrels of crude oil and condensate -– a light hydrocarbon –- in September, according to government data. Much of the slump can be attributed to production of three major export grades -– Bonny, Brass and Forcados -- that has shriveled to a trickle in recent months. The government blames rampant theft on the pipelines that crisscross the Niger Delta for shutting down wells and killing off investment. The resumption of operations at the Forcados terminal and the 180,000 barrel per day Trans-Niger Pipeline will help add half a million barrels to daily output by the end of November, the Nigerian National Petroleum Co.’s chief executive, Mele Kyari, said in an interview earlier this month. During the first half of the year, Nigeria produced about 230,000 barrels a day of Forcados grade oil, according to government data.

World is in its 'first truly global energy crisis' - IEA's Birol -(Reuters) – Tightening markets for liquefied natural gas (LNG) worldwide and major oil producers cutting supply have put the world in the middle of “the first truly global energy crisis”, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday. Rising imports of LNG to Europe amid the Ukraine crisis and a potential rebound in Chinese appetite for the fuel will tighten the market as only 20 billion cubic meters of new LNG capacity will come to market next year, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said during the Singapore International Energy Week. At the same time the recent decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known as OPEC+, to cut 2 million barrels per day (bpd) of output is a “risky” decision as the IEA sees global oil demand growth of close to 2 million bpd this year, Birol said. “(It is) especially risky as several economies around the world are on the brink of a recession, if that we are talking about the global recession…I found this decision really unfortunate,” he said. Soaring global prices across a number of energy sources, including oil, natural gas and coal, are hammering consumers at the same time they are already dealing with rising food and services inflation. The high prices and possibility of rationing are potentially hazardous to European consumers as they prepare to enter the Northern Hemisphere winter. Europe may make it through this winter, though somewhat battered, if the weather remains mild, Birol said. “Unless we will have an extremely cold and long winter, unless there will be any surprises in terms of what we have seen, for example Nordstream pipeline explosion, Europe should go through this winter with some economic and social bruises,” he added. For oil, consumption is expected to grow by 1.7 million bpd in 2023 so the world will still need Russian oil to meet demand, Birol said.

World "Still Needs Russian Oil To Flow" Amid "First Truly Global Energy Crisis"; IEA Chief Warns - “The world is in the middle of the first truly global energy crisis,” the executive director of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, said today in Singapore.IEA projections show global oil consumption growing by 1.7 million barrels a day in 2023. Russian crude will be needed to bridge the gap between demand and supply, Birol said.As Reuters reports, a U.S. Treasury official told Reuters last week that it is not unreasonable to believe that up to 80% to 90% of Russian oil will continue to flow outside the price cap mechanism if Moscow seeks to flout it."I think this is good because the world still needs Russian oil to flow into the market for now. An 80%-90% is good and encouraging level in order to meet the demand," Birol said. The official went on to warn that natural gas and LNG markets would tighten further in 2023, with only 20 million tons of new liquefaction capacity scheduled to come online in that year, Reuters reported.Speaking at the Singapore International Energy Week, the head of the IEA also said that while supply remains tight, demand for gas will continue to be strong, especially in Europe and possibly in China.Birol’s warning comes amid expectations that this winter will not be the toughest for Europe. Next winter is believed to be potentially much worse because, during the first half of this year, the EU could stock up on Russian pipeline gas, which is unlikely to come back next year, leaving the EU with a supply gap that other suppliers would be hard-pressed to fill. Meanwhile, as many as 60 LNG tankers have turned into floating storage off European coasts as there is not enough regasification capacity on the continent to unload the cargo.This, CNBC reports, is delaying some of the tankers’ return to the Gulf Coast to reload, and pushes gas inventories higher, Andrew Lipow from Lipow Oil Associates told the network.“The wave of LNG tankers has overwhelmed the ability of the European regasification facilities to unload the cargoes in a timely manner,” Lipow said.The shortage of LNG import capacity is aggravating Europe’s gas supply crisis but there is no quick solution to this problem except floating regasification units that Germany, for one, is seeking to deploy by the end of the year.Price is also challenging, with LNG a lot costlier than the pipeline gas Europe was used to. Earlier this month, French president Emmanuel Macron slammed the U.S. for setting double standards in this respect, pointing to how gas cost much less on the U.S. market than on the international LNG market.

IEA: Russia's war in Ukraine won't save fossil fuels - The Russian invasion of Ukraine may have sparked the “first truly global energy crisis,” but it won’t stave off the decline of fossil fuels or create a need to tap new oil and gas fields, the International Energy Agency said Thursday.In a new “World Energy Outlook,” IEA projected — for the first time — that current policies will be enough to force a peak or plateau in the use of fossil fuels. That follows the passage of several important climate laws in rich countries, including the Inflation Reduction Act in the United States, the agency said.“No one should imagine that Russia’s invasion can justify a wave of new oil and gas infrastructure in a world that wants to reach net zero [greenhouse gas] emissions by 2050,” IEA wrote. Over the next few years, demand for coal will hit its peak, while natural gas will plateau around 2030 and petroleum will reach its zenith in the mid-2030s, under current policy, according to the outlook. Clean energy will rise to take the place of fossil fuels to a certain extent, IEA found. About $2 trillion in annual global financing for technologies like electric vehicles and renewables is due to flood in by 2030, in reaction to recent climate laws. Yet that remains far short of what is needed for the world to comply with the 2050 net-zero emissions goal, as outlined in the Paris climate accord. At least twice as much clean energy investment, over $4 trillion per year, would be necessary by 2030 in order to comply, according to IEA’s modeling. The agency underscored a major shortfall in investments for clean energy in emerging economies, calling for a “renewed international effort” to help finance clean projects in less wealthy countries. “It is essential to bring everyone on board, especially at a time when geopolitical fractures on energy and climate are all the more visible,” said Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director, in a statement. In a foreword to the new report, Birol said Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — and the subsequent passage of climate laws in the United States, Europe, Japan and other countries — suggested a possible “historic turning point towards a cleaner and more secure energy system.” The war has disrupted the global trade in energy, delivering an “unprecedented energy shock” and amounting to the “first truly global energy crisis,” Birol wrote. Combined with the Covid-19 pandemic, the invasion will cause some 70 million people to lose access to electricity while 100 million people may no longer have clean fuels for cooking, he added.

Russia Leans On Turkey, India, China For Oil Sales Before EU Ban - The three countries that helped Moscow to maintain crude exports in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine appear to be stepping back into the market for Russian barrels, with Turkey taking a lead role in the latest buying. A marked increase in the volume of crude on tankers that have yet to signal a final destination makes the task of monitoring Russia’s exports more complicated, but most of those vessels end up in India, with a smaller number heading further east to China. Adding those ships into the calculation shows a steady increase in the combined flow of Russian crude to Turkey, China and India in recent weeks. Almost all tankers carrying Russian crude that signal destinations such as Port Said, Gibraltar or “for orders” eventually end up in one of those three countries. Time is running out to deliver crude from Russia’s Baltic ports to China and India before European Union sanctions that will deprive vessels of insurance and other services come into effect on Dec. 5. Tankers have until about Oct. 21 to depart Primorsk or Ust-Luga if they are to reach discharge terminals in eastern China before that deadline. Flows to China, India and Turkey peaked in June at 2.2 million barrels a day. In the four weeks to Oct. 14 that figure was down by about 350,000 barrels a day. However, shipments to Turkey have risen to the highest level for the year so far, while the volume on tankers yet to show final destinations is now so large, at the equivalent of more than 450,000 barrels a day, that it could send combined shipments to these three countries to new post-invasion highs once their actual destinations become apparent. Meanwhile, trading houses and refiners are racing to book storage tanks in Rotterdam in the coming months on expectations of a supply crunch after the EU sanctions take effect. Overall exports rose on a four-week average basis, climbing to the highest since mid-August and exceeding 3 million barrels a day for the first time in five weeks. The increase was driven by flows to Europe, which were higher to all three regions of the continent. All figures exclude cargoes identified as Kazakhstan’s KEBCO grade. These are shipments made by KazTransoil JSC that transit Russia for export through Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk. The Kazakh barrels are blended with crude of Russian origin to create a uniform export grade. Since the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, Kazakhstan has rebranded its cargoes to distinguish them from those shipped by Russian companies. Transit crude is specifically exempted from EU sanctions on Russia’s seaborne shipments that are due to come into effect in December.

Russian Oil Sales: U.S. says Russia oil price cap will not be aimed at OPEC --New steps from Group of Seven countries to cap Russian oil sales at an enforced low price will not be replicated against OPEC producers, whose plans to cut output have irked consumer countries, a United States Treasury official told Reuters. Washington has communicated to representatives of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to reassure them of those limits to its plans, the official added. The comments could help ease a spat between the United States and Saudi Arabia, the top oil exporter and de facto OPEC leader, over what Washington sees as collaboration with Russia to deprive markets of supply just as a global recession looms. Tensions have simmered between consumer countries, such as the United States and oil producers over output policy, with sources telling Reuters that OPEC anger about the price cap plan was among the reasons for its decision to cut output. OPEC+, which groups the producer bloc with allies, including Russia, announced last week that it would cut production by 2 million barrels per day to balance markets and quell volatility. Saudi Arabia said the real reduction would likely be around 1 million barrels per day (bpd) as several OPEC members have struggled to meet their existing output targets. The White House said the United States' analysis showed the cut could have waited until the next OPEC meeting, after the November U.S. midterm elections. But OPEC officials did not link the move to the Russian oil price cap in their discussions with the United States, U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo said last week. The United States last week said the cut would boost Russia's revenue and suggested it had been engineered for political reasons by Saudi Arabia, which on Sunday denied it was supporting Moscow in its invasion of Ukraine. The price cap due for Dec. 5 was designed specifically to address Russia's invasion of Ukraine and will not be carried over to other producers, the official added, as their moves to rein in output drive up prices. Nor do the new sanctions signal the beginning of a buyer's cartel to counter the impact of OPEC policies on the oil market, the official, who declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the situation, said. The Paris-based International Energy Agency grouping of consumer countries said last week that the OPEC+ cut has driven up prices and could push the global economy into recession. But the U.S. Treasury official saw the cut's price impact as muted, saying it might take a $30-$40 price surge or an output cut 10 times the size of the actual cut to OPEC+ output of around 900,000 bpd to trigger a recession. The G7 is keen to deprive Moscow of wartime revenues but seeks to avoid a global supply shock, which could raise prices and hit their own citizens as global recession fears deepen. Agreed by G7 nations in September, the price cap plan faced clashing with much stricter European Union bans on Russian shipments ratified in June. The EU agreed to the cap this month but regulatory details have not been ironed out, increasing anxiety over the plan in the oil industry with six weeks to go.

Russia poised to largely skirt new G7 oil price cap - (Reuters) – Russia can access enough tankers to ship most of its oil beyond the reach of a new G7 price cap, industry players and a U.S. official told Reuters, underscoring the limits of the most ambitious plan yet to curb Moscow’s wartime revenue. The Group of Seven countries agreed last month to cap Russian oil sales at an enforced low price by Dec. 5 but faced consternation from main players in the global oil industry who feared the move could paralyse the trade worldwide. Months of discussions between the United States and those insurance, trading and shipping firms have mollified concerns on their exposure to sanctions but all parties now realize Russia can largely skirt the plan with their own ships and services. The forecasts on the resilience of the Russian oil trade and details of the discussions between Washington and the global oil and services industry have not previously been published. Estimates that 80-90% of Russian oil will continue to flow outside the cap mechanism are not unreasonable, a U.S. Treasury official told Reuters. As a result, only between 1 and 2 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude and refined products exports could be shut in if the country refuses to abide by the cap, said the official, who declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the situation. Russia exported over 7 million bpd in September. That could pose financial and technical difficulties for Russia but would also deprive the world of 1-2% of its global supply just as inflation is on the rise and a recession looms. The United States is aware of some ships changing their countries of origin and trading entities being moved beyond the G7 to order to evade the plan, the official added. Russia would incur costs from having to conduct longer voyages and being relegated to subpar insurance and financing, the official said, making the United States optimistic Russia will be compelled to sell within the price cap over time. Industry and policy veterans have seen the limits of a plan which at first appeared to have the entire Russian oil trade in its crosshairs but whose scope could now be greatly diminished. “In theory there is a big enough shadow fleet to continue Russian crude flows after Dec. 5,” Andrea Olivi, global head of wet freight at commodities trading giant Trafigura told Reuters. “A lot of these shadow vessels will be able to self-insure or they will be able to be insured by Russian P&I”, he added, referring to protection and indemnity insurance. Bank JP Morgan sees the impact of the price cap as muted, with Russia almost completely skirting the ban by marshalling Chinese, Indian and its own ships – whose average age is nearly two decades old – relatively ancient by shipping standards. That could leave Russian exports in December reduced by just 600,000 bpd compared with September, the bank added.

More setbacks for Nigeria’s oil production as Addax workers resume strike — Nigeria’s oil production might again suffer further a decline of about 22,000 barrels per day, as workers of Addax Petroleum Development Nigeria have resumed their strike over alleged anti-labour practices. The 324 Nigerian employees of the oil firm cited the inability of the Federal Government and management of the company to address their grievances and payment of their exit packages, especially as Addax has commenced plans to exit Nigeria, as part of their reasons for resuming the strike. The striking workers, who are members of the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN), alleged that since the government withdrew the operating licences from Addax in March 2021 due to the company’s refusal to fully develop the oil wells allocated to it, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) Limited has taken over the assets and has resumed lifting oil products since June 2022. The oil workers, in a statement by PENGASSAN Secretary, Addax Branch, Ken Olubor, appealed to the NNPC to pay their exit packages, stating that Addax had since tidied its exit. Other allegations levelled by the workers include irregular payment of salaries and allowances, stoppage of appraisal performance reward, violation of employment working hour terms and undue elongation of working without compensation, prolonged stagnation and non-promotion since 2019, as well as no appraisal in the year 2022 due to the ongoing impasse. The statement disclosed that China’s Sinopec Group owns Addax with four Oil Mining Licences – OML 123, 124, 126 and 137, which it operates in a Production Sharing Contract (PSC) with the NNPC Limited. The letter read in part: “SINOPEC has withheld funding her Nigeria operation (Addax Petroleum Development Nigeria) following its ongoing exit which has created safety and operational challenges for employees and the much-anticipated operational funding from the NNPC/NAPIMS is yet to be received.

Namibia Could Join OPEC If Recent Oil Discoveries Fulfill Potential - Namibia could consider joining OPEC if recent offshore oil discoveries prove to be large enough for commercial development, Namibian petroleum commissioner Maggy Shino told Bloomberg on Wednesday, as oil majors that have made recent discoveries prepare for appraisal drilling.TotalEnergies made in February a significant discovery of light oil with associated gas on the Venus prospect offshore southern Namibia. The initial results are “very promising” in the so-called Orange Basin, Kevin McLachlan, Senior Vice President of Exploration at TotalEnergies, said at the time.Venus in Namibia could be a “giant oil and gas discovery,” TotalEnergies said in an investor presentation last month. Appraisal and testing are slated for 2023. Shell said in April that it was “very encouraged” by the early results from the deepwater Graff-1 exploration well in the same Orange Basin offshore Namibia, completed earlier this year. “Over the coming months, we’ll need to conduct further evaluation of the well results, and additional exploration activity, in order to determine the size and recoverable potential of the hydrocarbons that were identified,” said Dennis Zekveld, Shell’s Country Chair in Namibia.Shell also made a second discovery in the Orange basin in April.Shell’s Graff and TotalEnergies’ Venus discoveries could be transformational for Namibia, analysts at Wood Mackenzie said earlier this year.“There’s a new kid on the block in Sub-Saharan Africa’s upstream industry. After two successive giant offshore discoveries, Namibia is the hottest play in the region right now,” WoodMac said in March.But Namibia, as well as Shell and TotalEnergies, will have to wait until the appraisal and testing programs are completed next year to see if the early promising results really meant that the oil discoveries are giant. The economy of Namibia, neighbor to the south of OPEC producer Angola, is currently valued at around $11 billion. If the discoveries are developed, they could double the country’s GDP.

Pakistan Imported Petroleum Products Worth $100 Million Under Saudi Oil Facility in September - Pakistan imported petroleum products worth $100 million on a deferred payment basis under the Saudi oil facility for the seventh consecutive month in September 2022. Official documents revealed that the government has budgeted estimates of $800 million for oil imports under the Saudi oil facility. The country has imported petroleum products worth $300 million in the first three months of the current fiscal year. Saudi Arabia also provided petroleum products worth $100 million each during March, April, May, June, July, and August 2022.The Financing Agreement worth $1.2 billion for the import of petroleum products was signed last November between the Saudi Fund for Development (SFD) and Pakistan’s Economic Affairs Division (EAD). Under this facility, the Pak-Arab Refinery Limited (PARCO) and the National Refinery Limited (NRL) will import petroleum products up to $100 million per month from Saudi Arabia.The SFD has extended the financing facility to facilitate the purchase of petroleum products on a deferred payment basis. According to the official documents, the terms of the financing include the price of purchase by the SFD and a margin of 3.80 percent per annum.

Saudi Arabia to Install $12 Billion Aramco Oil Refinery Unit in Gwadar - Saudi Arabia has decided to build a $12 billion Saudi Aramco Oil Refinery unit in Balochistan’s Gwadar district.Well-informed sources said the Government of Pakistan expended significant effort to persuade the KSA to uphold its past agreements and put more money in Pakistan. The current government has also thrown its support behind Saudi Arabia, which is at odds with the United States over a reduction in global oil supply.Saudi Arabia’s energy minister Khalid Al-Falih arrived in Pakistan over the weekend and has already visited the deep-water port of Gwadar to review the site of the planned oil city. He and his team were received by top representatives of the coalition government. The visiting Saudi delegation and their hosts discussed plans for signing a number of investment agreements in the coming month, including petrochemical, refining, renewable energy, and mining.Talking to reporters, Al-Falih said, “Saudi Arabia wants to make Pakistan’s economic development stable through establishing an oil refinery and partnership with Pakistan in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)”.According to the Saudi official, who is also the Chairman of the Board of Saudi Aramco, bilateral relations between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are very strong, “and Saudi Arabia will play a role in Pakistan’s development and prosperity through investment”.A high-level delegation from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, led by the Crown Prince, will visit Pakistan in the last week of November. The Crown Prince is in Pakistan at Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s invitation. Pakistan made significant efforts to convince the KSA to fulfill the MoUs and invest in Pakistan.

Crude Slumps 1% After Demand Data From China Disappoints - West Texas Intermediate and Brent futures fell in early trading Monday in reaction to bearish economic data from China showing oil imports contracted 2% in September as refiners struggled to utilize increased quotas amid COVID-19 lockdowns. The bearish data was compounded as Chinese President Xi Jinping was given a third, five-year term during the twice-a-decade Communist Party Congress, and reshuffled his government, appointing loyalists to all key positions that dashed hope Beijing would soon pivot away from Xi's demand-sapping zero-COVID policy. China's economy has been hammered by rolling COVID-19 lockdowns, government restrictions on the property sector and international travel. Chinese stocks on Monday capped their worst day since the 2008 global financial crisis as investors fled mainland markets after a major power grab in Beijing. The onshore yuan fell as much as 0.6% against the U.S. dollar to the weakest level since January 2008. Underscoring the market meltdown is growing fear that the appointment of Xi's allies to the key government positions would make it impossible to enact pro-growth, market policies. A slew of China's key economic data released overnight after abrupt delays last week showed a mixed and sluggish recovery in the world's second largest economy. China's Gross Domestic Product for the third quarter bounced to a stronger-than-expected 3.9% growth rate after contracting by 2.6% in the previous three months, but retail sales disappointed with a 0.5% contraction. China's oil imports in September were down 2% from a year earlier despite increased quotas for independent refiners, signaling demand growth in the world's largest oil importer stalled. In August and July, weakness in China's oil imports was even more pronounced, averaging just 9.17 million bpd or a full 9% below 2021 level. China's demand for fuel this year is now expected to shrink for the first time on record, with data going back 20 years. With Xi's loyalists in power, investors will likely remain skeptical of China's potential to rebound from its COVID-scarred slowdown. Volatility in Asia's markets lifted the U.S. dollar in early trading Monday, with the greenback trading 0.3% higher against a basket of foreign currencies at 112. The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to raise the federal funds rates by another 0.75% at their Nov. 1-2 meeting, which would be the fourth consecutive rate hike of this magnitude in as many meetings. Near 7:30 a.m. EDT, December WTI futures dropped more than $1 to trade near $84.08 barrel (bbl), and the international crude benchmark for December delivery fell by $0.81 bbl to $92.72 bbl. ULSD futures for November delivery gained 1.46 cents to $3.8469 gallon, and November RBOB futures declined 4.29 cents to $2.6191 gallon.

Oil prices ease on Chinese demand data, stronger dollar – CNA -Oil settled lower in choppy trade on Monday as data showing demand from China remained lackluster in September and a strong U.S. dollar weighed, while weakening U.S. business activity data eased expectations for more aggressive interest rate hikes and limited price decline. Brent crude futures for December delivery settled at $93.26 a barrel, down 24 cents, 0.3 per cent, after rising 2 per cent last week. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude lost $84.58 a barrel, losing 47 cents, 0.6 per cent. Both benchmarks had fallen by $2 a barrel earlier in the session. Although higher than in August, China's September crude imports of 9.79 million barrels per day were 2 per cent below a year earlier, customs data showed on Monday, as independent refiners curbed throughput amid thin margins and lacklustre demand. "The recent recovery in oil imports faltered in September," ANZ analysts said in a note, adding that independent refiners failed to utilise increased quotas as ongoing COVID-related lockdowns weighed on demand. Uncertainty over China's zero-COVID policy and property crisis are undermining the effectiveness of pro-growth measures, ING analysts said in a note, even though third-quarter gross domestic product growth beat expectations. Ongoing strength in the U.S. dollar, which was up again for part of the trading session following another suspected foreign exchange intervention by Japan, also posed problems for oil prices. A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for non-U.S. buyers. "Further dollar strength would weigh on WTI values with a test of our expected downside at the 79.50 mark likely by week’s end,"

Oil Futures Settled Lower on Monday - Oil futures settled lower on Monday, as lackluster import data from China and the conclusion of the Communist party's national congress helped to dull expectations for energy demand from the world's second largest oil consumer. December WTI fell 47 cents, or nearly 0.6%, to settle at $84.58 a barrel, bringing to an end a three-session streak of increases. Energy commodities prices have seen plenty of twists and turns lately as investors try to gauge what might happen to supply and demand after US midterm elections that are set for early next month, and whether U.S. and global economic recessions can be avoided. Even as crude oil prices fell on Monday, which traders say was largely due to profit-taking, prices for RBOB and heating oil both rose sharply due to worries that weekly US inventory reports due Tuesday and Wednesday will show further declines in fuel stockpiles amid strong exports. RBOB for November delivery gained 6.82 cents per gallon, or 2.56% to $2.7302, while November heating oil gained 8.78 cents per gallon, or 2.29% to $3.9201. Brent for December delivery lost 24 cents per barrel, or 0.26% to $93.26. Bloomberg reported that the U.S. Northeast is so short on heating oil that the fuel is being rationed even before the start of winter. The president of the Connecticut Energy Marketers Association, Chris Herb, said some wholesalers in Connecticut are putting retailers on allocation, meaning they can only get a limited amount of fuel based on availability. These retailers must in turn ration their customers. There is currently a diesel shortage in U.S. as diesel inventories are “unacceptably low”. U.S. Northeast distillate fuel supplies trail the seasonal average. The main issue to replenish region fuel supplies has been a sustained backwardation in the diesel market. In addition to scarcity, there is also the cost. Wholesale heating oil in the New York Harbor averaged $4.09/gallon on Thursday, compared with $2.46/gallon at the same time a year ago. Meanwhile, some retailers are unable to source as much fuel as previous years because their credit lines are sustained and they are under financial stress. However, some supply relief is on the way, with a full Colonial pipeline and overseas cargoes headed to the region, which should also help east prices in the short term. Longer term, the global supply squeeze could make the diesel crisis worse as the cold winter months set in and European sanctions come into effect.According to Refinitiv analysis, gasoline exports to the U.S. are expected to increase this week to 222,000 tons from 185,000 tons in the previous week as the arbitrage spread widens.Goldman Sachs reported that it sees Brent prices averaging $104.20/barrel in 2022 and $110/barrel in 2023. It sees WTI prices averaging $99.80/barrel in 2022 and $105/barrel in 2023.Colonial Pipeline Co is allocating space for Cycle 61 shipments on Line 20, which carries distillates from Atlanta, Georgia to Nashville, Tennessee.

Oil Slides After Global PMIs Signal Economic Downturn (DTN) -- Oil futures moved lower in early trade Tuesday as investors parsed through bearish economic data for the United States, Eurozone, and China, indicating a deeper downturn for global oil demand at the start of the fourth quarter compounded by unusually mild weather across the European continent so far this month, easing demand for gas-to-oil switching in power generation. Dutch Transfer Title Facility gas futures for November delivery slid to 97.5 euros per megawatt-hour on Tuesday, down from 200 euros seen a month earlier, and the lowest trade since mid-June. The combination of milder weather and full gas storage in some of Europe's largest economies dragged European gas prices lower. TTF prices for January and February remain above 100 euros MWh but are down considerably since Russia first halted gas deliveries to European buyers this summer. Warm weather is welcome news for European manufacturers that have already struggled with sky-high energy prices eroding their output and profits. Germany's Purchasing Manufacturing Index for October fell to a lower-than-expected 44.1, down from 45.7 in September. This is not only a 29-month low but is also the fourth consecutive month that the PMI has been below the neutral 50 level, clearly suggesting negative GDP growth. The 50-mark separates growth from contraction. Domestically, survey on business activity for early October showed a surprise contraction across service and manufacturing sectors of the U.S. economy as operators fretted over rising interest rates and absent consumer demand. Except for the pandemic months of April and May 2020, the rate of decrease was the second-fastest since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. On the back of weaker economic data, investors markedly reduced bets on another 0.75% increase in federal funds rates from the Federal Open Market Committee in December. Near 7:30 a.m. EDT, December West Texas Intermediate futures dropped $1.36 barrel (bbl) to $83.28 bbl, and the international crude benchmark Brent contract for December delivery fell $1.24 bbl to $91.90 bbl. ULSD futures for November delivery shed 3.96 cents to $3.8805 gallon, and November RBOB futures declined 3.22 cents to $2.6980 gallon.

Oil Prices Rise on Weaker Dollar, Supply Worries (Reuters) -Oil prices edged higher on Tuesday, rebounding from an early fall of more than $1 a barrel, on a lift from a weaker dollar and supply concerns highlighted by Saudi Arabia's energy minister. Brent crude futures rose 26 cents to settle at $93.52 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose by 74 cents to $85.32. Both benchmarks rose and fell by $1 during the session. The U.S. dollar index fell during afternoon trade, making greenback-denominated oil less expensive for other currency holders and helping to push prices higher. Further support came from comments by Saudi Arabia's Energy Mister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman that energy stockpiles were being used as a mechanism to manipulate markets. "It is my duty to make clear that losing emergency stocks may be painful in the months to come," he told the Future Initiative Investment (FII) conference in Riyadh. Meanwhile, tightening markets for liquefied natural gas (LNG) worldwide and supply cuts by major oil producers have put the world in the middle of "the first truly global energy crisis," Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), said. The comments out of Riyadh and from the IEA are "a reminder that when it comes to the energy crisis, it's far from over," Uncertain economic activity in the United States and China, the world's two biggest oil consumers, limited oil's gains, however. On Monday, government data showed China's crude oil imports in September were 2% lower than a year earlier, while business activity contracted in the euro zone, Britain and the United States in October. Goldman Sachs Chief Executive David Solomon said that he believes a U.S. recession is "most likely," while a recession could be occurring in Europe. The U.S. Federal Reserve could raise its benchmark overnight interest rate beyond the 4.50%-4.75% range if it does not see real changes in behavior, he said at the FII conference. U.S. crude stocks rose by about 4.5 million barrels for the week ended Oct. 21, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. Gasoline inventories fell by about 2.3 million barrels, while distillate stocks rose by about 600,000 barrels.

Oil Climbs a Little as Saudis Issue Caution Over U.S. Reserves’ Release - Some say OPEC+ doesn’t like how the U.S. is influencing oil prices with its reserves. Others say members of the alliance are smirking at how the Biden administration is creating a bigger hole for America by draining down its emergency crude stockpiles when it might have a real emergency need later for those supplies. Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman’s message to the United States on Tuesday seemed to have a combination of both — mild annoyance and derision — as he cautioned about the pitfalls of using the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to keep a lid on market prices of both crude and fuel. “It is my profound duty to make clear to the world that losing (releasing) emergency stocks may be painful in the months to come," the minister, sometimes referred to by his initials as AbS, said at an industry conference in Riyadh. AbS’ remarks also came right after the head of the International Energy Agency said its members have oil reserves available to conduct another round of releases if needed. “We still have [a] huge amount of stocks to be released in case we see supply disruptions,” Fatih Birol, the executive director of the Paris-based adviser, said in a group interview at the Singapore International Energy Week Conference. “Currently it is not on the agenda, but it can come anytime.” Birol also said that tightening markets for liquefied natural gas worldwide and supply cuts by major oil producers have put the world in the middle of "the first truly global energy crisis." New York-traded WTI settled up 74 cents, or 0.9%, at $85.32 a barrel, after falling 1.6% in two previous sessions. London-traded Brent crude settled up 26 cents, or 0.3%, at $93.52 per barrel. It fell as much in the previous session. President Joe Biden announced the sale of an additional 15 million barrels from the SPR last week to follow through with some 180 million released from the reserve over the past six months by his administration. The releases helped pull Brent down from a March high of almost $140 a barrel to the low $80s by September. The higher volumes of oil in the market also created additional supply to refineries, bringing down fuel prices that at one point hit record highs above $5 per gallon. On Tuesday, a gallon of gasoline at U.S. pumps averaged $3.85 a gallon. The additional SPR release of 15 million barrels is expected to coincide with the 2 million barrels per day cut in global oil supply announced by OPEC+ for November onwards.

WTI Holds Gains Despite API Reporting Unexpectedly Large Crude Build - Oil prices rebounded today from earlier losses as fears over tight supplies once again became top of mind for many as 'peak hawkishness' overtook 'China demand fears'. Oil was also helped by a weaker dollar..."Oil prices, in the short term, are locked in a bit of a trading range," said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at The Price Futures Group, in a daily report. "We are still in shoulder season and we're still being influenced by concerns about the global economy and interest rates."For now, algos switch attention to API's report for signs of that demand destruction... API:

• Crude +4.52mm (-800k exp)
• Cushing +740k
• Gasoline -2.278mm (-1.6mm exp)
• Distillates +635k (-1.5mm exp)

Analysts expected a second consecutive small crude draw last week, but instead API reports a major crude build (and unexpected build in distillates stocks also)...WTI was hovering just below $85 ahead of the API print and held its gains after... Finally, The Price Futures Group's Flynn noted that the oil market "tries to ignore the dollar but it can't. When the dollar shows strength, it has put downward pressure on oil," and today saw dollar weakness lend a hand to oil bulls.Still, as the market gets into the winter season, "we'll see a disconnect between the dollar/oil relationship because oil is going to be needed."The Sevens Report Research analysts said oil's new trading range spans "between support in the upper $70s and resistance in the low $90s, as traders assess the outlook for demand amid growing recession concerns but still-tight global supply dynamics."

WTI Futures Gain as USD Slides to 1-month Low on Bearish Data - With the U.S. dollar extending losses into the fourth consecutive session, oil futures pushed higher early Wednesday, finding additional support from acute and widening diesel shortages along the East Coast that are heightening concern over historically low inventory levels heading into the heating season. Diesel shortages in New England and the broader New York areas are now quickly spreading to states in the Southeast and westward, with parts of Tennessee seeing particularly severe shortages. Bloomberg News reported this morning some operators in the area now require 72-hour notice for deliveries to secure fuel and freight. Nationwide distillate inventories have been running consistently below the five-year average for much of the year, with strong exports and domestic demand drawing down stockpiles. Now, with the heating season beginning in less than a week, low supply is heightening concern over the possibility of supply outages in New England states in particular, where the largest concentration of households and businesses draw on heating oil for space heating needs. The shortages are also again driving diesel prices higher, lifting costs for trucking, further exacerbating inflationary pressures. Against this backdrop, the U.S. dollar index declined more than 0.6% against a basket of foreign currencies to trade near 110.130, a more than one-month low, pressured, in part, by weaker-than-expected economic data released this week. The Conference Board reported on Tuesday consumer confidence in the United States plunged to a three-month low in October, driven by increasing concern by consumers in their assessment of current business and labor market conditions. The expectations index also fell below the level that is typically associated with a recession. Overall, Americans now feel more pessimistic about the health of the economy than at any point since April 2021. The dismal reading on U.S. consumer confidence follows a bearish dataset on business activity in manufacturing and service sectors of the economy, with both measures falling deep into contraction last month. Except for the pandemic months of April and May 2020, the rate of decrease was the second-fastest since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, illustrating deteriorating economic conditions. Wednesday's move higher in the oil complex also follows an inventory report from the American Petroleum Institute showing commercial crude and distillate fuel stocks increased last week, while gasoline inventories declined by a larger-than-expected margin. Further details of the report showed commercial crude oil stocks rose 4.52 million bbl last week, well above calls for inventories to have added 370,000 bbl. Stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma tank farm, the New York Mercantile Exchange delivery point for West Texas Intermediate futures, increased 740,000 bbl while inventory from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve dropped 3.4 million bbl. At 405.135 million bbl, emergency reserves currently stand at their lowest level since 1984 when stocks were below 400 million bbl. The back-to-back withdrawals from the SPR are part of a more than six-month effort by the Biden administration to reduce retail gasoline prices which spiked to more than $5 per gallon in June. Gasoline stocks, meanwhile, tumbled 2.278 million bbl last week, above an expected 1.03 million bbl draw. API reported distillate inventories added 635,000 bbl in the week ended Oct. 21 versus an expected draw of 1.02 million bbl. Near 9 AM ET, December WTI futures gained more than $1 to trade near $86.50 bbl, and ICE December Brent advanced $0.90 to $94.43 bbl. ULSD futures for November delivery rallied more than 5.75 cents to $4.0260 gallon, and November RBOB futures jumped 4.4 cents to $2.9605 gallon.

WTI Extends Gains As 'Strategic Midterm Reserve' Hits 1984 Lows - Oil prices are rallying this morning as the dollar continued to weaken (to 3-week lows), shrugging off any worries about the surprise crude build API reported last night.“Crude oil remains rangebound,” “Short-term direction is being provided by the movements in the dollar and focus on today’s weekly US stock report.”Meanwhile the Biden-MbS cagematch continues as the Biden administration has released millions of barrels of crude from the nation’s strategic reserves to help rein in crude and gasoline prices; while on Tuesday, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister criticized major importers for trying to tame prices by selling down their inventories, while defending OPEC+’s supply cut. DOE:

• Crude +2.588mm (-800k exp)
• Cushing +667k
• Gasoline -1.478mm (-1.6mm exp)
• Distillates +170k (-1.5mm exp)

While smaller than the API build, official data showed a surprise increase in US crude stocks. Gasoline inventories drewdown while distillates rose very modestly.. The bigger-than-expected build in commercial crude stockpiles of 2.6 million barrels was more than offset by another 3.4 million barrels taken from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. That left an overall nationwide crude draw of 829,000 barrels in the week to Oct. 21. The Strategic Midterm Reserve set to drop below 400MM this week for the first time since May 1984... Crude exports soared to a new record high, topping 5mm b/d... US crude production was flat on the week at 12mm b/d, even as rig counts rise... Graphics Source: Bloomberg Bloomberg notes that refinery capacity in PADD 2 decreased to 89.1% at a time when most refineries are running hot to maximize profits. The dip may be due to depleted Mississippi River water levels, which have impacted facilities such as Valero Memphis. In its earnings call, Valero said that such lower levels are impacting its ability to clear the refinery and supply the river terminals.WTI was hovering just below $87 ahead of the official data and lifted on the print...

Weak dollar, big U.S. crude exports buoy oil markets - Oil prices surged nearly 3% on Wednesday, bolstered by record U.S. crude exports and as the nation's refiners operated at higher-than-usual levels for this time of year. The dollar's weakness added support, as the greenback's strength of late has been a notable factor inhibiting oil market gains. Brent crude futures settled up $2.17, or 2.3%, to $95.69 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $2.59, or 3%, to $87.91. The U.S. dollar making oil cheaper for holders of other currencies. The U.S. greenback has been stronger than other key foreign currencies as the U.S. Federal Reserve has been more aggressive about raising rates. "Across the board this is a dollar-denominated move, and if you try to read outside out of that, it’s foolish," U.S. crude stocks rose 2.6 million barrels last week, according to weekly government data, more than anticipated, but that was lower than industry figures, which showed a 4.5 million-barrel build. Crude exports rose to 5.1 million barrels a day, the most ever, dropping net U.S. crude imports to their lowest in history. "Overall, thanks to the export market, this turns into a bullish report despite a medium-sized build in commercial crude inventories," Traders attributed the surge in exports to the widened WTI-Brent spread , which, coming into Wednesday's trade, was at more than $8 per barrel. U.S. refining rates remained steady at nearly 89% of capacity, the highest for this time of year since 2018. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries surprised markets with a larger-than-expected cut to its output targets earlier this month. Oil analysts anticipate supply will tighten in coming months after that move, and as Europe is expected next month to ban oil imports from Russia and restrict Russian shippers from the global shipping insurance industry. That ban may tighten world shipping markets, which could also increase the price of oil. Many analysts believe Russia will be able to circumvent the measures, but it could still cause Moscow to shut between 1 million and 2 million barrels of daily production; it could as well hit the distillates markets. "Until 2024 we believe oil price will be strongly influenced by the availability of tankers that are willing to transport Russian oil rather than global supply-demand fundamentals, keeping oil price elevated," JP Morgan analysts wrote.

Oil Rallies as US Economy Rebounds in Q3, ECB Lifts Rates -- Oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange settled Thursday's session higher. The gains came after the U.S. gross domestic product expanded more than expected in the three months ending in September, halting two consecutive quarters of negative growth despite broadening inflationary pressures and rising interest rates from the Federal Reserve. Limiting gains for the oil complex was a rebound in U.S. dollar index that jumped back to the 110-level after European Central Bank President Christina Lagarde warned of an increased likelihood for a recession in the Eurozone as the central bank lifted interest rates to the highest level in more than a decade. ECB officials delivered a second straight 75-point rate hike on Thursday, matching expectations by economists, but softened language around their commitment to raise rates further for "several meetings" to simply saying they expect borrowing costs to be raised "further." Eurozone manufacturing data for October revealed sharp deterioration in business conditions along with plunging consumer confidence that has been hammered by rising energy costs and protracted war in Ukraine. Domestically, Department of Commerce on Thursday reported the economy expanded 2.6% for the third quarter following a 0.6% contraction reported for the three months ending in April and 1.5% fall seen over the first quarter. While the headline number came in better than expected, underlying fundamentals show signs of a broad slowdown amid faltering consumer and business spending. Further details of the report showed Americans shifted spending from goods to services as was expected, but at a slower pace. Businesses significantly cut their investments. Combined with bearish economic data, reports of acute diesel shortages along the U.S. East Coast are likely to worsen the outlook for the fourth quarter. Distillate stocks in New England PADD 1A and Central Atlantic PADD 1B fell again last week to the lowest level on record for the months just before the winter, and to a 10-year low in Lower Atlantic PADD 1C, exacerbating fears over potential fuel rationing this heating season which begins Nov. 1. Historically low distillate inventory along the East Coast is realized despite full pipelines delivering to the region, with the Colonial Pipeline on Wednesday extending a freeze on nominations on its main distillate line that originates in Houston because demand by shippers to move fuel on the pipeline exceeds its 1.16 million-barrel-per-day throughput capacity. At settlement, December West Texas Intermediate futures advanced $1.17 to $89.08 per barrel (bbl), and ICE December Brent gained to $96.96 per bbl, up $1.27 per bbl on the session. ULSD futures for November delivery surged 21.38 cents to a fresh four-month high $4.3339 per gallon settlement, and November RBOB futures advanced 11.22 cents to $3.0116 per gallon.

Oil Rallies on Renewed Demand Outlook -Oil clung to gains on expectation that a US economic rebound would bolster demand even as the possibility of interest rate hikes weighed on other markets. West Texas Intermediate futures settled at a two-week high after US government estimates showed gross domestic product rose at a 2.6% annualized rate last quarter after falling in the first half of the year. The uptick eases recession concerns and brightens the demand outlook for crude. “This GDP number is solid, just solid,” “A lot of folks were trying to make a recession call and it’s obvious that we’re not in it.” Still, Wall Street remained unconvinced by the backward-looking numbers. Equity markets dropped Thursday amid lackluster company earnings and anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Crude, dragged down by recessionary fears during the second half of the year, had racked up four consecutive monthly losses. The market remained choppy in October as traders weighed a weaker demand outlook against expected supply tightness following the announcement of a major OPEC+ output cut. Now, the oil market is looking more bullish. Total US petroleum exports hit a record 11.4 million barrels a day last week while domestic fuel inventories are at historic seasonal lows. WTI for December delivery added $1.17 to $89.08 a barrel. Brent for December settlement climbed $1.27 to $96.96 a barrel. Investors have also been gauging the impact of upcoming European Union sanctions on Russia. The EU and US have proposed capping prices on Russian oil, but US officials have been forced to scale back the price-cap plan ahead of its potential implementation this quarter, according to people familiar with the matter. Instead of strangling the Kremlin’s oil revenues by imposing a strict lid on prices, the US and EU are now likely to settle for a more loosely policed limit that’s imposed at a higher price than once envisioned.

Record U.S. Crude Exports Push Oil Prices Higher - December WTI crude oil futures finished higher on Thursday, putting the market in a position to close higher for the week. The bullish price action was fueled by a number of factors including optimism over record U.S. crude exports, signs that recession fears are fading and a weaker U.S. Dollar. Helping to put a cap on gains were worries over demand from China. Longer-term traders noted that the start of OPEC+ production cuts and the European Union’s embargo on Russian crude oil were also underpinning prices all week. US Crude Exports Surge to Record – EIA U.S. crude oil stockpiles rose in the most recent week, even as the volume of exports hit an all-time record, the Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday. Crude inventories rose by 2.6 million barrels in the week to Oct 21 to 439.9 million barrels, nearly triple analysts’ forecasts in a Reuters poll for a 1-million-barrel rise. The big surprise that drove prices higher, however, was the news that crude exports surged to a weekly record of 5.1 million barrels per day, cutting net crude imports to just over 1 million bpd, also a record. Crude Supported after GDP Report Showed Some Signs of Inflation Easing Crude oil was also underpinned on Thursday after the latest U.S. GDP report showed some signs that inflationary pressures could be easing. The report for U.S. Gross Domestic Product showed 2.6% economic growth in the third quarter.

Oil Futures Ease 1% as China Widens COVID Curbs (Reuters) -Oil prices eased about 1% on Friday after top crude importer China widened its COVID-19 curbs, though the crude benchmarks were poised for a weekly gain on supply concerns and surprisingly strong economic data. Brent futures fell $1.19, or 1.2%, to settle at $95.77 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $1.18, or 1.3%, to $87.90. U.S. gasoline futures dropped about 3%, while U.S. diesel futures rose about 5% to their highest since mid June. "Diesel (was) still (the) strongest component of complex (with) shorts being squeezed out of the November contract ahead of Monday expiry," analysts at energy consulting firm Ritterbusch and Associates said. For the week, Brent rose about 2% and WTI was up about 3%. Chinese cities ramped up COVID-19 curbs on Thursday, sealing up buildings and locking down districts after China registered 1,506 new COVID infections on Oct. 27, the National Health Commission said, up from 1,264 new cases a day earlier. The International Monetary Fund expects China's growth to slow to 3.2% this year, a downgrade of 1.2 points from its April projection, after an 8.1% rise in 2021. "It's hard to make a case for a rebound in China’s crude purchases given the backdrop of uncertainty over its zero-COVID policy," PetroChina said China's demand for refined fuel and natural gas was set to grow year-on-year in the fourth quarter in tandem with an expected economic recovery as Beijing rolls out more stimulus policy. Economic strength in two major economies limited oil's losses. Data on Thursday showed a strong rebound in U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter, demonstrating resilience in the world's largest economy and oil consumer. The German economy also grew unexpectedly in the third quarter, data showed on Friday, as Europe's largest economy kept recession at bay despite high inflation and energy supply worries ahead of a looming European ban on Russian crude imports. "The market remains wary of the impending deadlines for European purchases of Russian crude before the sanctions kick in on 5 December," ANZ Research analysts said in a note. Global oil-and-gas giants including Exxon Mobil, Chevron and Equinor posted huge third-quarter profits, feeding criticism from consumer groups in the United States and Europe. U.S. President Joe Biden has told oil companies they are not doing enough to bring down energy costs. U.S. oil and natural gas rigs fell this week, but in October nothed their first monthly increase since July, according to energy service firm Baker Hughes Co. [RIG/U] The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is likely to maintain its view world oil demand will rise for another decade.

Oil Settled Up for the Week | Rigzone -- Oil rallied as US fuel stockpiles dropped and exports rose to a record, signaling robust demand despite recent bearish economic trends. West Texas Intermediate futures settled near $88 a barrel after posting a 3.4% weekly gain. The US exported a record amount of fuel last week while East Coast diesel inventories dropped to precariously low levels, according to government data. Tight fuel inventories heading into winter bolstered crude markets even as Wall Street digested uneven corporate earnings. Earlier on Friday, crude slipped as a stronger dollar made commodities priced in the currency less attractive. China’s economic growth outlook is darkening as investors bet Beijing will be slow to abandon its Covid-zero policy, while in Europe the French and Spanish economies slowed. “Crude prices posted a weekly gain as diesel supplies approach dangerously low levels and on hopes China’s economy could rebound before the end of the year,” said Ed Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda Corp, Oil is on course to end the month higher, following a four-month decline. A decision by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies to cut production in November and looming European Union sanctions on Russia have tightened the supply outlook. In addition, refiners in top importer China have snapped up millions of barrels as they plan to ramp up fuel exports. WTI for December delivery fell $1.18 to settle at $87.90 in New York. Brent for December settlement lost $1.18 to settle at $95.77. Widely-watched time spreads continue to hold in backwardation, a bullish pattern signaling tightness. Brent’s prompt spread -- the difference between the two nearest contracts -- was $2 a barrel, up from $1.27 a month ago. Meanwhile, Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. amassed more than $30 billion in combined net income as politicians blast Big Oil for raking in massive profits at a time when consumers are struggling with soaring inflation and energy shortages worldwide.

Energy Prices To Fall 11% In 2023 As Economies Slow Down: World Bank Study -- Global energy prices will ease in the next couple of years but "remain considerably" higher than the historic average, said a report on Wednesday. In many economies, prices in domestic-currency terms remain elevated because of depreciation and this could deepen food and energy crises. "As the global growth slowdown intensifies, commodity prices are expected to ease in the next two years, but they will remain considerably above their average over the past five years. Energy prices are expected to fall by 11 per cent in 2023 and 12 per cent in 2024," said the Commodity Markets Outlook report for October 2022 released by the World Bank. However, "prices will remain more than 50 per cent above their five-year average through 2024." Brent crude oil is expected to average at $92 per barrel in 2023, over $30 per barrel higher than the average of the last five years of $60 per barrel, said the report. In 2024, the average Brent crude oil is expected to cost $80 per barrel. Natural gas and coal prices will become cheaper in 2023, but Australian coal and US natural gas are expected to double their average of the last five years. Separately, low grain supplies in 2023 could result in high inflation. "First, export disruptions by Ukraine or Russia could again interrupt global grain supplies. Second, additional increases in energy prices could exert upward pressure on grain and edible oil prices. Third, adverse weather patterns can reduce yields; 2023 is likely to be the third La Niña year in a row, potentially reducing yields of key crops in South America and Southern Africa," said John Baffes, senior economist at the World Bank’s Prospects Group. "Higher-than-expected energy prices could pass through to non-energy prices, especially food, prolonging challenges associated with food insecurity," the report said. Almost all regions in the world saw double-digit food inflation in the first three quarters of 2022. India's food inflation in September was recorded at 8.6 per cent year-on-year (YoY) with vegetable and spice prices rising 18.5 per cent and 16.88 per cent respectively. "A further spike in world food prices could prolong the challenges of food insecurity across developing countries. An array of policies is needed to foster supply, facilitate distribution, and support real incomes," said Pablo Saavedra, the World Bank’s vice president for Equitable Growth, Finance, and Institutions in the report's press release. "Policymakers in emerging markets and developing economies have limited room to manage the most pronounced global inflation cycle in decades. They need to carefully calibrate monetary and fiscal policies, clearly communicate their plans, and get ready for a period of even higher volatility in global financial and commodity markets," said Ayhan Kose, director of the World Bank’s Prospects Group and chief economist at EFI, which produces the Outlook report.

Iranian teachers hold two-day sit-down strike against state repression of nationwide protests - Teachers in Iran are in the midst of a two-day sit-down strike protest against the brutal state repression meted out against young people participating in anti-regime demonstrations over the past six weeks. The protests began following the death in police custody September 16 of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, who was detained by the Islamic Republic’s morality police for “improperly” wearing the hijab. The protests have been fuelled by a disastrous social and economic crisis, which is the product above all of the Western imperialist powers’ imposition of crippling sanctions on Tehran. While they were initiated in areas of the country with Kurdish majorities, the ethnic group to which Amini belonged, the protests have involved people from all the country’s ethnic and religious groups. The protests have been predominantly led by young people and have retained a heterogeneous social character. Initially, the protests were centred on university campuses, but in recent weeks high school students have joined them in significant numbers. The teachers’ strike is the largest organised intervention of the working class in the anti-government protest movement to date, following a brief strike earlier this month by oil workers at a facility in southwestern Iran. Iran’s bourgeois-clerical regime has launched a vicious crackdown on the protests, with unofficial sources placing the death toll at around 200. According to Amnesty International, 23 of those deaths were children. The deputy to the commander-in-chief of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, Rear Admiral Ali Fadavi, commented, “The average age of most detainees is 15 years.” The Iran-based Asia newspaper reported that 42 percent of detained protesters are under 20; 48 percent are aged between 20 and 35; and 10 percent are over 35. In a statement announcing the teachers’ strike, the Coordinating Council of Teachers Syndicates, a union independent of the regime-aligned shoora (“workers councils”), cited the brutal treatment of children and young people as its motivation for the job action. The Coordinating Council emerged from the repeated strikes and protests teachers have mounted since 2018 against low-wages and poor working conditions. The statement declared, “We teachers will be present at schools but will refrain from being present in classes.” It continued, “The rulers must know that ... Iran’s teachers do not tolerate these atrocities and tyranny and proclaims that we are for the people, and these bullets and pellets you shoot at the people target our lives and souls.” It pledged to “continue our protest until the people’s right to protest is recognised, all pupils are unconditionally freed and return to schools, the system stops killing the people and children, and stops answering the people’s rightful demands with bullets.”

Israel Attacks Syrian Capital For 3rd Time Since Friday After Zelensky Claims It's Soft On Terror - On Wednesday Israel launched yet another missile attack on Damascus, which notably marks the third one against Damascus since Friday. Significantly Friday's attack had been the first major strike in a month - though prior to this the aerial assaults had come semi-regularly."Four people collaborating with Hezbollah, including one Syrian fighter, were killed in an attack attributed to Israel on Damascus' outskirts on Wednesday overnight, in the third such strike in less than a week, according to a human rights group in Syria," Haaretz reports. However the Syrian government didn't confirm any casualties. Despite the prior lull in such brazen attacks from Israeli forces, it seem clear they are now re-escalating again, but no specific reason from Israel has been provided. "At around 00:30 AM (21:30 GMT), the Israeli enemy carried out an aerial aggression from the direction of the occupied Palestinian territories targeting several positions in the vicinity of Damascus," Syria's defense ministry said in a statement.Similar strikes had been launched Friday and Monday, with Monday's being a rare daytime attack that wounded a Syrian soldier. Damascus says of the Wednesday aggression that anti-air defenses were deployed and "confronted the missile aggression and downed most of them."Of broader geopolitical importance, which might provide context to the stepped-up attacks, is Ukraine's essentially begging Israel to transfer its Iron Dome defense system and "close the skies" - as President Zelensky said this week.

Can the ‘Butcher of Syria’ save Russia from another rout? – Russia’s General Sergei Surovikin is no stranger to mass murder and spreading terror. In Chechnya, the shaven-headed veteran officer, who has the physique of a wrestler and an expression to match, vowed to “destroy three Chechen fighters for every Russian soldier killed.” And he’s remembered bitterly in northern Syria for reducing much of the city of Aleppo to ruins. The 56-year-old air force general also oversaw the relentless targeting of clinics, hospitals and civilian infrastructure in rebel-held Idlib in 2019, an effort to break opponents’ will and send refugees fleeing to Europe via neighboring Turkey. The 11-month campaign “showed callous disregard for the lives of the roughly 3 million civilians in the area,” noted Human Rights Watch in a scathing report. Now he is repeating his Syrian playbook in Ukraine. Two weeks ago, Vladimir Putin appointed Surovikin as the overall commander of Russia’s so-called “special military operation,” to the delight of Moscow’s hawks. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov praised Surovikin as “a real general and a warrior.” He will “improve the situation,” Kadyrov added in a social media post. But reversing a series of stunning battlefield Ukrainian victories and shifting the tide of the war may be beyond even the ruthless Surovikin. Ukrainians have shown throughout the year they’re made of stern stuff and aren’t going to be intimidated by war crimes — and they’ve endured bombing and bombardments before by equally unscrupulous Russian generals. But Western military officials and analysts note there are already signs of more tactical coherence than was seen under his predecessor General Alexander Dvornikov. “His war tactics totally breach the rules of war but unfortunately they proved effective in Syria,” a senior British military intelligence officer told POLITICO. “As a war strategist he has a record of effectiveness — however vicious,” the officer added. Surovikin and other officials point to the targeting of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure with a massive wave of attacks the past week. Strikes at the weekend resulted in power outages across the country leaving more than a million households without electricity, the deputy head of the Ukrainian presidency, Kyrylo Tymoshenko, said Saturday.

Russia Cuts Expectations For Taxable Oil Production - Russia’s finance ministry has slashed its forecast for taxable oil production for next year, a draft budget seen by Reuters showed on Friday. The draft budget covers the next three years and forecasts a decline in crude oil production and refining as Western sanctions bite. The finance ministry sees Russian oil and gas condensate production at 490 million tonnes next year, or 9.84 million bpd. This is a 7% - 8% decline from the 10.54 million bpd to 10.64 million bpd that the ministry anticipated this year, the budget showed. Its outlook for oil production for 2022 was reduced to 515 million tonnes. After the drop off to 490 million tonnes next year, the finance ministry expects oil production to increase to 500 million tonnes for 2024 and 2025. Oil refining and export volumes that are subject to tax have been revised downward to 8.20 million bpd next year, from the previously expected 10.15 million bpd. Expected oil refining volumes were cut by nearly 20% to 230 million tonnes, while oil exports subject to exports duty were revised down 19.4% to 178.2 million tonnes. “The economy ministry’s forecast is based on overall oil exports increase, including an increase of exports eligible for tax relief, which is related to an expected rise of production at fields, which have exports duty relief,” the finance ministry told Reuters. The refusal of some countries to work with Russia in the oil markets and having to discount Russia’s main exports triggered the revised forecast with regard to oil production. The data release comes as U.S. and Western officials hash out their plan to cap the price of Russian oil. Russia has threatened to stop oil deliveries to any buyer engaging in price capping.

Russia Warns Of 'Dirty Bomb' False Flag Plot In Flurry Of Rare Calls To Western Leaders - A major new and sensational charge of a Ukrainian false flag plot in the making issued by Russia's defense chief has set off a string of tit-for-tat accusations and statements Sunday.Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu claimed in rare phone calls that included his counterparts from the United States, Britain, France, and Turkey that Ukrainian forces are preparing a "provocation" with a radioactive device. A Kremlin statement cited that he conveyed a warning over "possible Ukrainian provocations involving a 'dirty bomb'".Shoigu's office said in follow-up that he conveyed the warning to all the above-named countries' defense chiefs. As for his conversation with Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, it was the second phone call in merely three days. The Pentagon in the hours after said Austin told Shoigu he "rejected any pretext for Russian escalation" - which strongly suggests the US perceives that Moscow is about to heighten attacks on Ukrainian cities further:Russian authorities repeatedly have made allegations that Ukraine could detonate a dirty bomb in a false flag attack and blame it on Moscow. Ukrainian authorities, in turn, have accused the Kremlin of hatching such a plan.The Kremlin is further charging that this low-intensity nuclear provocation is being prepared with the help of Great Britain; however, the Western allies have said no evidence whatsoever was presented in the phone calls alongside the accusations.The UK defense ministry said in its statement following Shoigu's phone call with Secretary Ben Wallace that the Russian side "alleged that Ukraine was planning actions facilitated by Western countries, including the UK, to escalate the conflict in Ukraine.""The Defense Secretary refuted these claims and cautioned that such allegations should not be used as a pretext for greater escalation," the ministry said.Russia is saying that such a 'dirty bomb' detonation, which would spread radioactive waste and potentially contaminate large urban areas, would then be blamed on Moscow in order to justify greater Western intervention.

Russia Doubles Down On 'Dirty Bomb' Claim At UN Security Council -- The Kremlin said it is raising the issue of Ukraine forces plotting a "dirty bomb" false flag attack, in order to lay blame on Russia for a mass casualty event, at the UN Security Council on Tuesday. At the same time, Ukraine's nuclear agency has counter-alleged that Russian forces could be preparing a "terrorist act" with radioactive materials from occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Energoatom said Tuesday that Russian troops have access to 174 containers of spent nuclear fuel, with which Russians could be "preparing an act of nuclear terrorism," a statement asserted."Destruction of these containers as a result of explosion will lead to a radiation accident and radiation contamination of several hundred square kilometers (miles) of the adjacent territory," Energoatom said while urging the UN atomic watchdog IAEA to intervene.As for the ongoing allegations from Moscow of a "dirty bomb" plot, Putin office spokesman Dmitry Peskov reiterated in a fresh statement, "We again emphasize the grave danger posed by the plans hatched by the Ukrainians."The White House has rejected the allegations, saying "It’s just not true. We know it’s not true," according to a press briefing by John Kirby, spokesman for the National Security Council. "In the past, the Russians have, on occasion, blamed others for things that they were planning to do."Russia has raised the matter in a letter submitted to the UNSC which spells out "We will regard the use of the 'dirty bomb' by the Kiev regime as an act of nuclear terrorism."

EU To Give Ukraine 1.5 Billion Euros Per Month Next Year - European Union Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced that the bloc would give Kiev 18 billion euros next year while it continues fighting Russia, Reuters reported on Friday. The latest pledge was made during the second day of the EU leaders’ summit in Brussels, where further support for Ukraine is being discussed. According to von der Leyen, Kiev estimates that, to run the country, it requires 3-4 billion euros every month "for the basics." So far, this year the bloc has provided Kiev with 19 billion euros. Looking ahead to 2023, the EU is committing to give Kiev 1.5 billion euros per month. The remaining monthly welfare for Ukraine’s government is expected to come out of the American taxpayers’ pockets and international institutions, according to von der Leyen. Ukraine recently applied for EU membership, image via The Presidential Office of Ukraine As Americans and Europeans alike struggle amid skyrocketing inflation and soaring energy prices, their governments appear dead set on continuing to pour tens of billions of dollars into Ukraine to fund its corrupt government and keep NATO’s proxy war going. "It is very important for Ukraine to have a predictable and stable flow of income," von der Leyen declared. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the EU leaders at the summit and made several demands. He wants "new powerful" sanctions levied against Russia and Iran. Zelensky blames Tehran for Moscow’s drone attacks, but there is no definitive evidence that the Iranians have sold Moscow these weapons. Despite repeated denials from Russia and Iran, the EU as well as the UK imposed fresh sanctions on Iran this week over the allegations of Russia bombing Ukraine with Iranian drones. Moreover, Zelensky asked the EU for more air and missile defense systems. In recent weeks, Berlin sent the first of four IRIS-T air defense systems and Paris pledged more anti-aircraft systems. Zelensky also warned that Moscow’s increased air attacks on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, which is being provoked by repeated Ukrainian terror attacks and shelling inside Russia, will lead to a refugee crisis in Europe.

Where Most Aid To Ukraine Comes From - The United States has pledged more than 52 billion euros in military, financial and humanitarian aid to Ukraine since the war began in February 2022 and October 3. As Statista's Anna Fleck details below, data from the Ukraine Support Tracker shows that the U.S. has provided by far the most aid to the country, followed by EU institutions (16.2 billion euros), the UK (6.7 billion euros), Germany (3.3 billion euros) and Canada (3 billion euros). infographicAccording to the pioneers of the tracker at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, the U.S. pledged a sum of close to 12 billion euros in recent weeks, while EU countries and institutions committed just 1.4 billion euros.Christoph Trebesch, head of the team compiling the Ukraine Support Tracker states:"The U.S. is now committing nearly twice as much as all EU countries and institutions combined. This is a meager showing for the bigger European countries, especially since many of their pledges are arriving in Ukraine with long delays. The low volume of new commitments in the summer now appears to be continuing systematically."Despite these figures being comparatively low to the U.S., when considering bilateral aid in terms of a percentage of GDP, several European countries come out on top with Latvia (0.9 percent), Estonia (0.8 percent) and Poland (0.5 percent) as the most generous donors.

Russia suspends Ukraine grain export deal after attack on Crimea – Russian government said it suspended indefinitely a months-old deal allowing grain shipments to leave Ukraine's ports, citing an attack on a base in occupied Crimea as the reason. According to a statement issued Saturday by Russia's foreign ministry, Moscow “suspends participation” for an "indefinite period" in a deal brokered by the U.N. to make sure agricultural products made in Ukraine can reach global markets. The deal is considered critical to global food security given Ukraine's role as a major producer of grain, which is then normally shipped via the Black Sea to markets worldwide, especially in Africa and the Middle East. "The Russian side cannot guarantee the safety of civilian dry cargo ships," the foreign ministry said, citing an alleged drone attack by Ukraine on the port at Sevastopol in Crimea in the early hours of Saturday morning. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said in a tweet that Moscow was using a “false pretext to block the grain corridor.” The Russian ministry statement repeated claims made earlier in the day that British experts had supported Ukraine in the attack on Crimea, with Moscow also accusing U.K. forces of being behind explosions that critically damaged the Nord Stream gas pipeline without providing supporting evidence. London denied the claims. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, accused Russia of "blackmail" and "fictitious terror attacks." The export deal, dubbed the Black Sea Grain Initiative, was supposed to run until November 19 when all sides would have needed to agree to extend it. The agreement enabled Ukraine to restart exports of grain and fertilizer via the Black Sea, which had been stalled when Russia invaded the country in late February. Since the U.N.-backed grain deal was signed in Turkey on July 22, several million tons of wheat, corn, sunflower products and other grains have been shipped out of Ukraine.

Why fertilizer shortage could be a disaster for developing countries - As a key input in food production, chemical fertilizers are crucial in reducing hunger and eradicating poverty over the past decades. However, using them has become a luxury for farmers in low and middle-income countries as fertilizer prices have soared over the past two years. Earlier this month, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) released its global food price index for September. FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero pointed out that developing countries still face food problems even though food prices have decreased since March, and the increasing global fertilizer prices are more likely to reduce their crop yields next year. According to the World Bank, fertilizer prices in September this year climbed 6 percent. Compared to September 2021, the fertilizer price index has seen a surge of nearly 72 percent. In addition to existing pandemic-related stresses, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has caused major shocks to commodity markets. The war has led to severe disruptions of the production and trade of fertilizers, for which Russia and Ukraine are key exporters, along with energy and grains. As the war continues, fertilizer prices are expected to reach one of their highest points in history, after the 1973 oil crisis and 2008 financial crisis. Western countries claim that the sanctions against Russia do not cover the production, sale and transportation of agriculture-related goods. But Russia said these sanctions have resulted in many obstacles in bank settlement, insurance and shipping, causing a large amount of Russian fertilizer to be grounded in European ports. As fertilizer prices rise, making a living out of growing grains has become increasingly difficult for farmers. The consequences, especially for countries facing food insecurity, could be disastrous. "All countries in South Asia are developing countries. Agriculture is a major driver in their economies and fertilizers have been a necessity to guarantee crop yields. Without fertilizers, they can hardly feed themselves," said Li Qingyan, associate research fellow at the Department for Developing Countries Studies at the China Institute of International Studies. Taking the recent economic crisis in Sri Lanka as an example, she said the country's nationwide ban on chemical fertilizers last year crippled its agriculture, which increased the risk of repaying its debt. Li added that most developing countries rely on imported fertilizers, and high fertilizer prices increased the cost of economic recovery in these countries.

How Do You Know Where You’re Going If You Don’t Know Where You Are? (China Statistics Edition) - by Menzie Chinn - A question becoming increasingly relevant as China cuts back on statistical releases. From Burn-Murdoch at FT: (graphic)In this context, one can view the recent delay of Q3 GDP release as emblematic of a continuous process of dismantling the technocratic elements of economic management in China. We will probably have to rely more and more on alternative means of estimating Chinese economic activity, as in satellite imagery of nighttime lighting, or alternative composites of reported economic indicators (Li Keqiang index). For a recap, here are the nowcasts and forecasts of reported GDP (that is, trying to forecast what official GDP will be reported as, not whatactual activity might be), from this post. Figure 1: China GDP (black), Bloomberg consensus as of 10/17 (sky blue square), Goldman Sachs as of 10/11 (brown triangle), and IMF World Economic Outlook October 2022 forecasts (red square), mn 2020CNY, quarterly rates. ECRI peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: IMF, International Financial Statistics, Bloomberg (October 17, 2022), Goldman Sachs “Top of Mind” (10/11) and IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2022, ECRI, and author’s calculations. While several observers have noted that in recent years, Chinese GDP movements at business cycle frequencies have matched what other indicators are suggesting, in the most recent quarters, there has been some skepticism evidenced (see this post). In some ways, the problem posed by reduced reporting of low frequency indicators will make it harder to evaluate trend growth in output. Here, see Martinez’s (2022) Figure 6, which shows that over the 1992-2012 period, China’s official growth was nearly 200%, while estimated from satellite data, was 120% (second bar from the left in panel (a), third bar from the left in panel (b)).

Crush kills at least 146 at Halloween festivities in Seoul - — A mass of mostly young people celebrating Halloween festivities in Seoul became trapped and crushed as the crowd surged into a narrow alley, killing at least 146 people and injuring 150 others in South Korea’s worst disaster in years. Emergency workers and pedestrians desperately performed CPR on people lying in the streets after the crush in the capital’s leisure district of Itaewon Saturday night. Choi Seong-beom, chief of Seoul’s Yongsan fire department, said the death toll could rise further and that an unspecified number among the injured were in critical condition. An estimated 100,000 people had gathered in Itaewon for the country’s biggest outdoor Halloween festivities since the pandemic began. The South Korean government eased COVID-19 restrictions in recent months. Itaewon, near where the former headquarters of U.S. military forces in South Korea operated before moving out of the capital in 2018, is known for its trendy bars, clubs and restaurants. It was not immediately clear what led the crowd to surge into the narrow downhill alley near the Hamilton Hotel, a major party spot in Seoul. One survivor said many people fell and toppled one another “like dominos” after they were being pushed by others. The survivor, surnamed Kim, said they were trapped for about an hour and a half before being rescued, as some people shouted “Help me!” and others were short of breath, according to the Seoul-based Hankyoreh newspaper. Another survivor, named Lee Chang-kyu, said he saw about five to six men push others before one or two began falling, according to the newspaper. In an interview with news channel YTN, Hwang Min-hyeok, a visitor to Itaewon, said it was shocking to see rows of bodies near the hotel. He said emergency workers were initially overwhelmed, leaving pedestrians struggling to administer CPR to the injured lying on the streets. People wailed beside the bodies of their friends, he said. Another survivor in his 20s said he avoided being trampled by managing to get into a bar whose door was open at the alley, Yonhap news agency reported. A woman in her 20s surnamed Park told Yonhap that she and others were standing along the side of the alley while others caught in the middle of the alley had no escape

Colombian President Says the Unspeakable Out Loud: “The US is Ruining Economies Around the World” - Until recently Washington’s closest ally/client state in South America, Colombia is now under new management. And that management has a different perception of US influence in Latin America and the wider world. Just over a month ago, Colombia’s recently elected left-wing President Gustavo Petro ruffled a few feathers by lambasting the US-led war on drugs from the podium of the UN General Assembly in New York. He also condemned the NATO-Russia proxy war in Ukraine, which raised serious questions about Colombia’s position as NATO’s only Latin American partner. Then last Wednesday, during a visit to Urabá Antioquia, close to Colombia’s northern border with Panama, he set his sights on US economic policy: An economic crisis is undoubtedly brewing. The United States is practically ruining economies around the world. The German economy has already been destroyed by the war [in nearby Ukraine]. The Russians, Ukrainians and Europeans, first and foremost, have unleashed a war upon their own continent, which is a war for gas, for energy. And as a result of that war the European economy is sinking. Powerful Germany is entering recession. And who would think it? England, which one day was the world’s dominant colonial power, is mired in a deep economic crisis. In Spain, the residents of towns and cities are up in arms. The same in France. And in the United States decisions are being taken to protect the United States, sometimes without thinking about the consequences elsewhere. Petro places much of the blame for the “looming economic crisis” on the US Federal Reserve, whose aggressive interest rate hikes of the past seven months have propelled the dollar to its highest level since the year 2000.* Raising rates draws capital toward the US economy and away from higher-risk emerging markets. As capital inflows push up the dollar’s value, capital outflows pull down emerging-economy currencies, which makes it much harder for governments and companies to service their US-denominated debt. The US Ambassador to Colombia, Francisco Palmieri, responded to the accusations by urging Petro not to look for culprits for the worsening economic conditions around the world, only to shift the blame to Russia seconds later:We must not think about where to lay the blame. We must focus on how to work together to improve and foster the development necessary for economic growth… Russia’s aggression against Ukraine is a major threat to the global economy. Within the United States, we are also experiencing economic challenges, as are many of the countries in the world.As the IMF noted last week, the dollar has appreciated 22% against the yen, 13% against the Euro and 6% against emerging market currencies since the start of this year. That the currencies of rich economies like Japan, the UK and the EU have, as a whole, fallen faster against the dollar than emerging market currencies is testament to the severity of the current global dollar shortage. As the Korean economist Keun Lee notes, “while US monetary policy is hardly the only factor in causing that shortage, it is undoubtedly making matters worse.”The Federal Reserve is hiking rates right now to try to keep a lid on inflation at home, even though high inflation in the US is largely the result of global supply chain pressures. But in doing so, it is exporting inflation to the rest of the world by driving up the value of the dollar. And that is piling yet more pressure on already cash-strapped governments.

ECB Starts QT via Loans rather than Bonds, Hikes by 75 bpts, to 1.5%, More Hikes to Come -- by Wolf Richter - The ECB is now scrambling to not fall further behind the Fed, as the euro got hammered below parity with the dollar and as 10% inflation is tearing up consumers and the economy. It will hike all three policy rates by 75 basis points – its deposit rate to 1.5%; its main refinancing rate to 2.0%; and its marginal lending rate to 2.25% — as “inflation remains far too high and will stay above the target for an extended period,” it said today.The 75 basis points today come after 75 basis points in September and 50 basis points in July, for a combined 200 basis points in three meetings. The two 75-basis-point hikes were the biggest since 1998. The 200 basis points combined were the steepest three-meeting hikes ever.It “expects to raise interest rates further, to ensure the timely return of inflation to its 2% medium-term inflation target,” it said. From around 10% now, long way to go, dear. To “help address unexpected and extraordinary inflation increases,” the ECB said today that it will “recalibrate” the terms and conditions of its targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO III) to make these loans more expensive and less attractive for the banks, which will speed up the banks’ exit from those loans.TLTRO III was a form of QE by lending directly to the banks. At the peak in June 2021, TLTRO III balances amounted to €2.22 trillion on the ECB’s balance sheet.Effective November 23, the interest rate on those loans will “be indexed to average applicable key ECB interest rates,” the ECB said today. This raises the rates of those loans, making them more expensive and less attractive. The ECB will add three additional “voluntary early repayment dates” to let banks “partly, or fully, repay their respective TLTRO III borrowings before their maturity.”The ECB reiterated today that its bond holdings under the Asset Purchase Program (APP) and its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) will remain flat by replacing maturing securities with new securities.So the loan holdings (TLTRO III) is where QT has started on the ECB’s balance sheet, rather than with its bond holdings (APP and PEPP). The TLTRO III balances have already dropped some. The changes of the terms and conditions announced today will cause those balances to drop further. TheBank of Japan has started QT similarly by reducing its loan holdings rather than its bond holdings.The drop in the loan balances so far is responsible for the €61 billion decline in total assets from the peak in June 2021. And this form of QT will accelerate after the changes take effect in late November: As in the US, inflation in the Eurozone began surging in early 2021, nearly a year before the war in Ukraine. In July 2021, it blew past the ECB’s target. In February 2022, it hit 5.9%. For nearly all of this time, the ECB brushed off this raging inflation. And then it went from there to 9.9% in seven months. Andnow, way too late, the ECB is taking inflation seriously:

Germany Sees Unexpected Growth in 3rd Quarter; Inflation Up (AP) — The German economy grew in the third quarter, an unexpectedly positive performance powered largely by private spending, official figures showed Friday. But the immediate outlook for Europe's biggest economy remained gloomy, with inflation rising again in October. Gross domestic product expanded by 0.3% in the July-September period compared with the previous quarter, the Federal Statistical Office said. That followed a slight increase of 0.1% in the second quarter. “The German economy managed to hold its ground despite difficult framework conditions of the global economy, with the continuing COVID-19 pandemic, supply chain interruptions, rising prices and the war in Ukraine,” the statistics office said. The government said earlier this month that GDP was believed to have shrunk in the third quarter and was expected to decline again in the last three months of the year as well as the first three months of 2023 before beginning to recover. Two consecutive quarters of negative growth is one technical definition of recession. With energy prices high, Germany — like many other countries — is grappling with skyrocketing inflation. The annual inflation rate rose once again in October, climbing to 10.4% from 10% the previous month, according to a preliminary estimate released by the statistics office on Friday. On Tuesday, a survey showed German business confidence stuck at its lowest level in more than two years as energy worries fuel expectations of a difficult winter. Lawmakers last week cleared the way for the government to provide up to 200 billion euros ($195 billion) in subsidies to households and businesses through 2024 to ease the strain of high energy prices, and parliament's upper house added its approval on Friday. However, details of that plan haven't yet been finalized. Officials say Germany is well-placed to get through the winter with sufficient energy after Russia cut off natural gas supplies but stress that it will still need to conserve the fuel that heats homes, powers factories and generates electricity. “Looking ahead, the surprise growth in the third quarter does not mean that the recession narrative has changed,” ING economist Carsten Brzeski said. “All leading indicators point to a further weakening of the economy in the fourth quarter and there doesn’t seem to be any improvement in sight.”

Former Goldman Banker Rishi Sunak To Be Next UK Prime Minister -- As we predicted yesterday following Boris Johnson's decision to quit the race to regain the British Prime Minister title after his thunderous fall from grace just... three months ago, it was a foregone conclusion that former Goldman banker Rishi Sunak would become the next UK prime minister. Moments ago that's precisely what happened when his last remaining rival, Penny Mordaunt, pulled out of the race for 10 Downing Street. As Bloomberg notes, it has been a remarkable turnaround in Sunak’s political fortunes, after the former Chancellor of the Exchequer and former Goldman banker quit Boris Johnson’s government in July and then lost out to Liz Truss in the last Tory leadership contest over the summer. But his repeated warnings that her plans would trigger economic chaos proved correct and put him in pole position when Truss’s premiership imploded.Even so, Sunak - who many have speculated is "willing to sell off the UK to his banker friends" - was no shoo-in given the bitterness and division in the Conservative Party. He’s still tarnished in the eyes of many Tory MPs for his role in Johnson’s downfall, and the former prime minister’s flirtation over the weekend with what would have been an outrageous comeback just months after being ousted briefly threatened to derail Sunak’s hopes.Yet in the the end, he won after Boris Johnson withdrew without ever showing he had the support of 100 Tory MPs needed to formally contest the leadership. Likewise, Mordaunt pulled out on Monday shortly before influential Tory MP Graham Brady was due to announce which candidates had surpassed that threshold.It meant a coronation for Sunak, 42, who becomes the UK’s first Hindu prime minister and the country’s youngest in more than 200 years. Grassroots Tory members, who had the final say when Truss beat out Sunak last time, will have no input this time around.While markets took the news in stride, with 2Y gilt yields at one point plunging the most since 1992...

New UK PM Rishi Sunak married into almost $1 billion in tech money, has a net worth that rivals King Charles, and takes over a country struggling to afford heatingRishi Sunak is set to become Britain's newest prime minister, taking over from Liz Truss after her astonishingly short — and chaotic — time in office. Truss's slashing of taxes and subsequent policy U-turns during her brief six weeks in office spooked the markets and plunged Britain into financial turmoil. Her aggressive tax-cutting plan coupled with already soaring interest rates and a squeeze on energy prices worldwide has left many Brits with distinct financial worries and in a cost of living crisis.The UK now has more food banks than McDonald's, and many people are making the choice between eating and heating their homes, as Insider's Bethany Dawson reported. The Guardian reported in August that almost a quarter of the country is planning not to turn on the heating this winter. On Monday, October 24, Sunak secured the backing of his Conservative Party to become its leader, thereby becoming the UK's presumptive PM. As a former Chancellor of the Exchequer, Sunak's grasp of fiscal policy may be welcomed by a country facing immense financial difficulties.However, Sunak also faces fierce criticism for his family's extraordinary wealth. With a net worth that rivals that of King Charles III, many fear that Sunak will not be able to understand the daily financial struggles the British public faces, especially as Britainfaces the prospect of a painful recession.Political research consultancy Savanta ComRes summed up public sentiment in a tweeted word cloud on Monday, based on the most common responses given to the surveyed question, "How would you describe Rishi Sunak in one word?" "Clever," "good," and "okay" were prominently featured, but they were dwarfed by one word: "Rich." At the time of publication, the survey's methodology was not made public.

Sunak Has Been Set Up To Fail and the Likelihood Is That He WillRishi Sunak could be a great prime minister. That possibility cannot be denied. Equally, the probability that he will be is very small. A thread…History does not suggest that many prime ministers appointed mid-term with their predecessor having failed turn out to be great. Sunak has two failed predecessors. That’s really not good. That Sunak is petrified of the role he is taking on does not help. How do I know he is petrified? First, he spoke to no one during this campaign, not even MPs. Second, his speech to Tories at their HQ yesterday was as wooden as anything Truss has done. He is already overwhelmed.Third, the issues he has to address justify his feeling overwhelmed, given the near impossibility of appeasing his backbenchers on almost any of them. They could all be solved, but not by a Tory. They include:

– Brexit, which does not and never will work.
– Division over Northern Ireland.
– Scotland wishing to leave the Union, to which Tories have no answer.
– Covid, which is crippling the NHS with more cases than ever.
– No progress on climate change.
– Inflation, which is not caused by wage demands, meaning what the government and Bank of England are seeking to do by raising interest rates is the wrong solution to the problem we face.
– Strikes, because people need inflation matching pay rises to survive.
– A cost of living crisis, which inflation policy is not addressing.
– Officially encouraged interest rate rises that massively increase the scale of the cost of living crisis. Millions of British people face poverty and even financial destitution as a result.

It’s fair in that case to assume we will have:
–– An increase in homelessness as people cannot pay their rents or mortgages.
– Overwhelmed food banks.
– Hungry children, who might be homeless too.

Mix into all this:
– The fact that vast numbers of small businesses are in deep trouble because of interest rate increases and because people who can’t pay their mortgages or rent have nothing left to spend on anything else.
– Unemployment is going to increase as a result.

Then note the problems for a man wanting to balance the government budget:
– Record NHS waiting lists.
– A failing court system.
– Social care beyond breaking.
– Education stretched to its limits.
– Increased defence demand.
– An alienated civil service.
Nothing can be cut. Sunak’s own policies are only likely to make this worse:
– Unemployment is forecast to increase significantly by the Bank of England.
– Universal credit costs will rise.
– Falling real wage increases push up benefit claims.
– Increasing rents require more benefit payments.

The current cost of living crisis will also cut some tax revenues in real terms.
–– Rents, mortgages and food will be a bigger party of spending. None have VAT on them.
– Energy has low VAT.
– Companies not making profits don’t pay tax.
– Nor do most unemployed people.

Sunak won’t be balancing any books any time soon then. But he has to:
–– Keep markets happy because that is apparently his main job.
– Fill a supposed ‘black hole’ in government finances without creating new money, which he did during the Covid era.