week ending Dec 21

Hawkish Fed Cut Rates As Expected; Signals Dramatically Less Aggressive Rate-Cut Cycle (11 graphs) Since the last FOMC meeting - on November 7th - the dollar and stocks have rallied while gold and oil have lagged as the dollar flatlined (amid significant volatility on the way from various macro data surprises)... Most notable is the fact that inflation data has dramatically surprised to the upside and 'hard' data (excluding sentiment/surveys) has also soared since The Fed started its rate-cutting cycle... Bear in mind that financial conditions are at around the same 'looseness' or 'easiness' as they were before the Fed started the rate-hiking cycle...The market is fully priced for a cut today but as the chart below shows, expectations for 2025 cuts have collapsed... As expected and fully priced in, The Fed cut its benchmark rate by 25bps to 4.25%-4.50% target range. The Fed also cut its overnight reverse repo facility rate from 4.55% to 4.25%.Key highlights suggest The Fed is anything but on an automatic easing path... The Fed has clearly decided that Trump's policies will be inflationary - ignoring for a moment the forced-hand of a rate-cut today, they hiked their inflation and interest rate forecasts dramatically, with the latter catching up to the hawkish market's perception.But despite the hawkish shift, they see the unemployment rate basically unchanged from where it is now...We'll see which of those is wrong soon...Countdown to 2025 recession has begun (yes, Trump will be blamed).Next debt step function: 15 trillion in debt to current baseline. Expect $50 trillion in 2 years. Just a reminder - The Fed slashed rates by a dramatic 50bps (crisis-like move) less than 3 months ago!! And now - post-election - things are completely different.

Fed lowers rates but sees fewer cuts next year due to stubbornly high inflation (Reuters) - The U.S. central bank cut interest rates on Wednesday, as expected, but Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said more reductions in borrowing costs now hinge on further progress in lowering stubbornly high inflation, remarks that showed policymakers are starting to reckon with the prospects for sweeping economic changes under a Trump administration. Powell's explicit - and repeated - references to the need for caution from here on jolted Wall Street, sending stocks sharply lower, bond yields higher and leading investors to dial back estimates of how far borrowing costs are likely to fall over the coming year. "I think we're in a good place, but I think from here it's a new phase and we're going to be cautious about further cuts," Powell said at a press conference after the central bank's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point at the end of a two-day meeting. Powell described at length the ways in which inflation has improved since peaking in 2022, as well as the ways it has disappointed by moving "sideways" in recent months, with shelter costs in particular improving more slowly than the Fed expected. While he said the Fed remained confident price pressures would continue to ease, he also acknowledged central bank staff and policymakers were beginning to at least preliminarily think through how President-elect Donald Trump's promises of higher tariffs, tax cuts and tougher immigration policy will change the outlook. In developing new projections, "some people did take a very preliminary step and start to incorporate highly conditional estimates of economic effects of policies into their forecasts at this meeting," Powell said of an outlook in which U.S. central bankers anticipated a higher inflation outlook and fewer rate cuts next year. An index of policymakers' sense of risk around their projections also shifted sharply higher for inflation, with a separate measure of uncertainty increasing as well in an abrupt change from the outlook issued in September, before the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election. Powell said those changes were largely driven by data, but analysts saw the beginnings of a reckoning with Trump policies that many expect will add to inflation pressures. The new projections show officials expect the personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy costs, or core PCE, to be stuck at 2.5% through 2025, an improvement over this year's 2.8% but significantly higher than the Fed's 2% target. "Uncertainty and upside risks to core PCE inflation both up sharply since September. This seems to largely reflect new government policies' potential impact," said Karim Basta, chief economist with III Capital Management. The Fed, which hiked rates aggressively in 2022 and 2023 to combat a surge in inflation, began its easing cycle in September with a half-percentage-point cut in borrowing costs, and followed up with a quarter-percentage-point cut last month. Going into this week's meeting the central bank had been widely expected to deliver a "hawkish" rate cut by estimating roughly half the policy easing in 2025 than the 100 basis points policymakers had projected three months ago. But by the time Powell had finished speaking, only one 25-basis-point cut for next year was reflected in market pricing. The changed outlook highlights some of the challenges Trump may face delivering on key campaign promises, with tighter Fed policy likely keeping important consumer interest rates like those on home mortgages elevated, and less improvement on inflation undermining his pledge to lower prices. Powell even said the decision to lower the policy rate to the 4.25%-4.50% range this time was a "closer call" than implied by financial markets that considered the cut a near certainty ahead of the meeting. The decision drew a dissent from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, who joined the central bank earlier this year and indicated she would have preferred to leave rates unchanged at this week's meeting. But Powell was also clear that the baseline outlook was for the economy to continue to perform well with ongoing growth, low unemployment and inflation that officials expect to drift slowly lower. Rates will fall again once inflation shows it is making more progress, "with the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range" depending on "incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks," the Fed said in new language, opens new tab that sets up a likely pause to the rate cuts beginning at the Jan. 28-29 meeting.

FOMC Statement: 25bp Rate Cut -- Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC Statement: Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Since earlier in the year, labor market conditions have generally eased, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. Inflation has made progress toward the Committee's 2 percent objective but remains somewhat elevated. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate. In support of its goals, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective. In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments. Voting against the action was Beth M. Hammack, who preferred to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/2 to 4-3/4 percent.

Key takeaways from the Fed’s third rate cut | CNN Business - The Federal Reserve on Wednesday cut interest rates by a quarter point, the third rate cut since it began to lower borrowing costs in September.The central bank’s latest move leaves its benchmark lending rate at a range of 4.25%-4.5%, a two-year low.The decision to cut was not unanimous, is an attempt to ease pressure on America’s economy from elevated interest rates to preserve the labor market’s health.Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the latest rate cut was “a closer call,” adding that recent inflation readings were “the single biggest factor” on officials’ minds during the meeting. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack was the lone dissenter on Wednesday’s decision, preferring to keep rates at their current levels.The Fed signaled in its policy statement that it is leaning toward holding rates steady in the future, since inflation remains stubbornly above the central bank’s 2% target. The US economy has also proved remarkably resilient in the face of elevated borrowing costs, giving the Fed some reassurance that it can stand pat without risking any undue economic damage.Fed officials penciled in just two rate cuts for next year, according to their latest forecasts, down from the four they projected in September. Officials also project slightly stronger economic growth, slightly lower unemployment, and for inflation in 2025 to be higher than they previously thought.The projections overall suggest Fed officials expect the US economy next year to be buoyant, with no recession in sight. They expect inflation to reach their target over a longer period than they previously estimated, not touching 2% until 2027.Powell sang the US economy’s praises in his post-meeting news conference, saying its strength has been “the story” of the year. Powell affirmed the likelihood of fewer rate cuts next year that the projections showed.That sent markets into a tailspin, with the Dow dropping by more than 1,000 points.Some investors are bullish on the prospects of strong growth next year, which could come about from the policies of President-elect Donald Trump. The incoming administration promises extending the 2017 tax cuts and cutting down on regulations — policies poised to boost growth if they’re enacted.However, Trump’s threat of massive tariffs on goods coming from Mexico, Canada and China could derail the Goldilocks economy the Fed has seen so far, since the stiff tariffs Trump has floated are widely expected to stoke inflation.A former Fed president told CNN that the US economy has already achieved the exceptionally rare feat of a “soft landing” — a scenario in which inflation is tamed without a recession — and is now just a matter of sustaining it.Here are key takeaways from the Fed’s third consecutive rate cut. The US economy next year is widely expect to remain solid, according to the Fed’s own estimates and those of other economists.Trump has indeed floated plans that could transform the economy, such as high tariffs and mass deportations, but it will generally take time for those plans, if they’re signed into law, to affect the broader economy.But for now, the Fed sees a robust US economy with some stubborn price pressures in 2025.“I think that the slower pace of cuts for next year really reflects both the higher inflation rate this year and the expectation inflation will be higher,” Powell said.The Fed leader said that some officials already began to incorporate possible changes in trade policy in to their economic models. Officials regularly devise simulations to understand what the economy might look like in the future.In September 2018, when the first Trump administration went on a tariff spree, slapping duties on foreign goods ranging from solar panels to washing machines, a Fed simulation deemed it appropriate to hike rates if foreign countries imposed retaliatory tariffs and if Americans also expected inflation to pick up, according to a declassified 2018 Fed document detailing policy alternatives known as the “tealbook.”Powell continued to express that there are still many unknowns about Trump’s tariff plans, such as which goods will be tariffed and the duration of any duties, saying it “is not a question that’s in front of us right now.”He didn’t rule out a rate hike in 2025.US economic growth this year has been healthy, driven by American shoppers continuing to open their wallets. Consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of the US economy, has been boosted by a steady job market with historically low unemployment. Businesses have also continued to invest in their operations throughout the year, according to Commerce Department data.Powell said that persistent strength has been one key reason why long-term interest rates, tied to the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield have trended up since the Fed’s first rate cut in September. That includes mortgage rates.

Dow plunges by more than 1,100 points after Fed projects fewer rate cuts next year -- The Dow fell by 1,123 points Wednesday, ending the day 2.58% lower after the Federal Reserve indicated in a policy statement that it is forecasting just two interest rate cuts in 2025, not the previously projected four. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also refused to say the central bank would not hike rates, telling reporters Wednesday: “You don’t rule things completely in or out in this world.” This was the 10th day of losses for the blue-chip index and marked the first such losing streak since 1974, when Gerald Ford was president. However, the previous days’ losses were nowhere near the rapid decline seen Wednesday. Wall Street had expected the Fed to cut rates, but the statement that it is expecting just two rate cuts in 2025 fueled a broad selloff. Jay Hatfield, CEO and CIO at Infrastructure Capital Advisors, said stocks fell in response to the Fed’s “hawkish cut,” which means implementing a rate cut while signaling that monetary conditions might remain tight in the future. “The Fed’s admitted uncertainty as to monetary policy actions in 2025, combined with the expectation of only two cuts (rather than four) in 2025 amplified investor uncertainty and concern, triggering profit taking this year versus delaying into the new year,” Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, said.

Trump 'uncertainty' contributes to hawkish shift at Fed - The Federal Reserve is entering a "new phase" in its approach to monetary policy, and uncertainty related to policy shifts by the incoming Trump administration is playing a role. The Federal Reserve lowered its policy rate but signaled a more "cautious" approach to future cuts in light of higher inflation expectations. Policy uncertainty was one of several contributing factors to that change in forecast.

FOMC Projections - Statement here. Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. Here are the projections. Since the last projections were released, economic growth has been above expectations, the unemployment rate is below expectations, and inflation close to expectations (although there are some "base effects" that might push PCE inflation up in Q4). So, the projections for GDP were revised up for 2024, the unemployment rate revised down for 2024, and inflation revised up for the next couple of years.In September, the FOMC participants’ midpoint of the target level for the federal funds rate was around 3.375% at the end of 2025 (3.1%–3.6%) and the long run range was 2.5% to 3.5%. The FOMC participants’ midpoint of the target range is now at 3.875% at the end of 2025 (3.6%-4.1%) and the long run range is 2.8% to 3.6%. The BEA's second estimate for Q3 GDP showed real growth at 2.8% annualized, following 3.0% annualized real growth in Q2, and 1.6% in Q1. Current estimates for Q4 GDP are around 2.6%. That put real growth in 2024, Q4 over Q4, at 2.5% - well above the top end of the September FOMC projections. GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP¹ (see table) ¹Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated. The unemployment rate was at 4.2% in November (and 4.1% in October). This is below the low end of the September projections for Q4.Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Unemployment Rate² (see table) ²Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated. As of October 2024, PCE inflation increased 2.3 percent year-over-year (YoY). This is in the middle of the September projection range.Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, PCE Inflation¹(see table) PCE core inflation increased 2.8 percent YoY in October. This was slightly above the range of FOMC projections for Q4. Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Core Inflation¹ (see table)

Trump should warn that it might get worse before it gets better --In a recent speech, Trump’s nominee for Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, called for a “massive restructuring of the global economy,” highlighting that economic growth is essential for addressing the federal government’s debt. He proposed reducing the budget deficit to 3 percent of GDP by 2028, boosting GDP growth through deregulation, and increasing daily oil production by 3 million barrels. Analyzing these policies alongside Trump’s broader economic agenda — such as raising tariffs, curbing outsourcing, and revitalizing manufacturing — reveals that the incoming administration does not intend to rely on the same globalization model that fueled past economic growth. The old model, which leveraged global supply chains and positioned the U.S. at the top of profit-driven sectors like innovation and services, brought prosperity and rapid development to parts of the economy. However, it also contributed to the decline of American manufacturing and the erosion of the middle class. Meanwhile, globalization has established China as the global manufacturing hub. This shift has brought substantial benefits to China, including booming exports and job creation — at its peak, the manufacturing sector employed over 100 million people. Although China has not secured higher profit margins, its industrialization and economic strength have undergone a transformative leap compared to the pre-globalization era. Over the last few decades, China has significantly enhanced its military power based on its superior manufacturing capability.America suddenly finds itself facing renewed major-power competition and the ongoing and potential large-scale regional conflicts, and it is not prepared. Trump’s “America First” vision marks a departure from globalization, aiming to address the damage wrought during the globalization era. However, this transition is likely to be impeded by domestic politics, entrenched interests, and economic inertia. Additionally, the economic cycle may not work to the advantage of Trump. Despite these obstacles, this transition is vital for America’s future. On a narrower scale, it may be the most effective way to counter the mounting challenges posed by China, the U.S.’s most formidable rival. On a broader scale, it represents a critical battle for America’s enduring prosperity and global leadership. Among the many consequences of globalization, the hollowing out of American manufacturing has led to increased military spending but a loss of U.S. military strength. The reliance on overseas production has complicated quality control, increased costs and diminished military readiness. While the U.S. outsources significant manufacturing to allies such as Japan and South Korea, these countries cannot produce all advanced components. Critical research and development and core manufacturing, such as building aircraft carriers, must remain with American defense contractors.Military strength relies on a robust civilian industrial base. Thriving shipyards with commercial contracts provide skilled workers, production capacity, and expertise, enabling efficient defense production. However, decades of reduced U.S. manufacturing investment have left its shipbuilding sector focused solely on military vessels. Globally, China dominates the market with a 47 percent share, followed by South Korea at 29 percent and Japan at 17 percent. Meanwhile, the U.S. trails far behind with just 0.13 percent, often facing costs up to four times higher than those that China and other countries face for comparable military vessels.The Russia-Ukraine war underscores the severe consequences of America’s declining manufacturing capabilities. In this war, conventional weapons and basic supplies have proven indispensable, while NATO’s difficulties in meeting ammunition demands highlight critical manufacturing shortfalls. Future conflicts, such as those in the Taiwan Strait, are likely to depend on large quantities of conventional weapons rather than cutting-edge technology. China’s emphasis on quantity, supported by its robust shipbuilding and weapons production industries, provides it with a significant advantage over the U.S. in conventional military assets. The U.S. must rethink its strategy. The erosion of its industrial base leaves it vulnerable, risking ceding supply chains to rivals and falling behind in defense. The Trump administration recognizes that drastic reforms are essential, but this shift from globalization will come with short-term economic costs. Deglobalization would entail a degree of trade protectionism and supply chain localization, potentially leading to partial or significant decoupling from the Chinese economy. These measures could have economic repercussions for the U.S., with even the anticipation of such decoupling risking an economic downturn. An economic downturn is particularly unacceptable now, as it could make debt burdens unmanageable and lead to instability. As Bessent noted, “The debt problem can only be solved by growing the economy.” Other policies, such as raising tariffs, would exert additional short-term economic pressure.

The record Pentagon spending bill and America’s hidden nuclear rearmament - Last week, the US House of Representatives overwhelmingly voted, once again, to allocate a record amount of money to fund war all over the world. The National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), passed by the House of Representatives on Wednesday, stands at $895 billion, the largest military budget, in nominal terms, of any country in human history.The annual military funding bill, which is scheduled to be considered by the Senate and signed into law by the end of the month, has grown 47 percent, from $607 billion a decade ago. The average American has absolutely no idea what is in the bill or how it compares to historical precedent. This is by design. Beyond a cursory discussion of disagreements between Democrats and Republicans over gender-affirming care for the children of soldiers, there is a total information blackout on the actual contents of the bill. And that is doubly true for its central policy focus: expanding and modernizing the US nuclear arsenal for what US military planners call the “new nuclear age.” Not a single article by any major US publication has examined in any detail the bill’s plans to expand the nuclear arsenal. A completely different reality emerges on the House committee write-ups of the bill, which the vast majority of the public will never see. The official summary of the bill by the Democrats in the House Armed Services Committee prominently highlights nuclear buildup, focusing on the bill’s “funding of nuclear modernization efforts” and its plan to “modernize the land-based leg of the U.S. nuclear triad.” The bill, according to its official committee summary, “[R]equires a DOD plan for deterring and defeating simultaneous aggression by two near-peer nuclear competitors, including requirements for nuclear force sizing.” The bill includes provisions for the modernization of every single component of the US nuclear arsenal, from nuclear submarines to intercontinental ballistic missiles and nuclear bombers, and creates and fields an entirely new class of nuclear weapons, known as the “Nuclear Sea-Launched Cruise Missile.” The summary states that the bill “authorizes $252 million to support continued Navy development of the nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missile.” It directs the restoration of nuclear capabilities across the entire B-52 strategic bomber fleet, “requires no fewer than 400 responsive, on-alert U.S. intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) to be deployed” and mandates a plan for “acquiring and deploying up to 450 Sentinel ICBMs.” In October, as the NDAA was being drafted, the New York Times published a massive feature story, based on over 100 interviews, of the secret plan dedicated to “making America nuclear again” through the creation of a “modern arsenal for a volatile new nuclear age.” “If you don’t live where the submarines are welded or the missile silos are dug, there’s a good chance you wouldn’t know it’s happening,” the Times wrote. “The federal government has said little about the plan in public, outside of congressional hearings and strategy papers, or the vast amount being spent. There has been no significant debate. The billion-dollar programs move under the radar.” Everything the Times wrote about the nuclear buildup proceeding “under the radar” and with “no significant debate” applies in droves to the coverage of this year’s NDAA, including by the Times, which hid a brief notice of its passage on page 19. October’s expansive New York Times feature and an associated series of articles detailing the harrowing effects of nuclear war were promptly buried. The nuclear buildup is simply never mentioned in any discussion of the military spending bill in major newspapers, talk shows or the statements of US politicians—outside of official briefing papers. The plan for the “second nuclear age” transcends administrations. Beyond the often bitter factional warfare within the US state, the semi-secret nuclear modernization plan, first conceptualized in 2010 under Obama and initiated at scale in 2014, has continued and accelerated under Trump, Biden, and the second Trump administration. The elements of the nuclear buildup that are hidden from view—by simply never being referenced in news coverage—are accompanied by plans that are truly secret. Among such secret plans is an alleged update to the “Nuclear Employment Guidance,” on which the Times reported in August. “The White House never announced that Mr. Biden had approved the revised strategy, called the ‘Nuclear Employment Guidance,’” the newspaper wrote, “which also newly seeks to prepare the United States for possible coordinated nuclear challenges from China, Russia, and North Korea.” But the content of the secret strategy paper was hinted at in remarks in June by Pranay Vaddi, senior director for arms control at the National Security Council, who in a speech to a US-based think tank proclaimed a “new era” for nuclear arms in which the US would deploy nuclear weapons “without numerical constraints.” Vaddi declared, “We’re modernizing each leg of our nuclear triad, updating our nuclear command control and communication systems, and investing in our nuclear enterprise.” The massive military spending surge in the US is mirrored in every country in the world. European politicians are actively discussing plans to double military spending, shifting from a target of 2 percent of GDP to as much as 4 percent. “It is time to shift to a wartime mindset,” NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said on Thursday. “And turbocharge our defense production and defense spending.” Of course, the greatest impact of the nuclear rearmament is what will happen if these weapons are used. But even without this catastrophic scenario, the multi-trillion-dollar modernization program—as part of an unprecedented increase in global military spending—has the most far-reaching social consequences. Earlier this year, Bloomberg published an article explaining how the global military rearmament will impact public finances and social programs. “A new era of global rearmament is gathering pace, and it will mean vast costs and some tough decisions for western governments,” the article declares. “The post-Cold War ‘peace dividend’ is coming to an end,” Bloomberg quoted one of its analysts as saying, with a “transformative effect” on “public finances.” It declared, “How a remilitarized world can reconcile such commitments with finite tax revenues and ever-greater welfare and health needs is set to become a searing political question in the years ahead.” The implication is clear: As countries all over the world massively expand their militaries, bedrock social programs, including Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid in the United States, will be slashed. The incoming Trump administration, committed to continuing the unprecedented growth in military spending under Trump’s first term, has vowed to slash social spending to the bone. Under the leadership of Elon Musk, whose net worth has surged to more than $400 billion, the Trump administration’s new “Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)” has placed everything on the chopping block. “You look at the way in which that money is being spent through Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security,” said Vivek Ramaswamy, the proposed co-head of the department, “There are hundreds of billions of dollars of savings to extract.” Meanwhile, the “progressive” wing of the Democratic Party is giving the new administration credibility. “Elon Musk is right,” declared Senator Bernie Sanders, absurdly claiming that DOGE—headed by an individual who runs one of the largest US military contractors—would somehow make military spending less of a bonanza for arms makers. “Democrats can work with DOGE,” proclaimed fellow “progressive” Ro Khanna, asserting, “I want the U.S. to have the greatest military in the world and the resources to counter increasingly sophisticated threats from our adversaries.” It goes without saying that both Sanders and Khanna are fervent supporters of the US war against Russia in Ukraine and aggressive trade war measures against China. The entire US political establishment, from the would-be dictator Donald Trump to all factions of the Democratic Party, support the massive US military rearmament, of which the nuclear buildup is, in the words of the Biden White House, “foundational” and “a top priority for the Nation.”

Senate advances NDAA, teeing up final vote in coming days - The Senate on Monday cleared a key procedural hurdle toward passing the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), teeing up a final vote in the coming days before Congress wraps up its work for the year. Senators voted 83-12 to advance the $895 billion annual defense policy package, setting up a vote on final passage by Wednesday, absent a time agreement that would expedite getting the package over the finish line. ”I hope we can find a path to pass an NDAA as soon as tomorrow,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said in a floor speech ahead of the Monday vote, arguing the proposal is not “a perfect bill” but has some “very good things” that Democrats pushed for. The bill, which sets Pentagon policy for the year, passed the House 281 to 140 last week.The annual bill usually passes with widespread bipartisan support, but that took a hit this year after Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) pushed for a provision in the bill that would restrict the use of funds from TRICARE, the health care program for active-duty service members, for gender-affirming care for the children 18 years and younger of service members. That led numerous Democrats to vote against it. Even some Republicans signaled they were not pleased with the legislative change, which they say could have been made unilaterally by President-elect Trump after he takes office, sparing the legislative fight. Some lawmakers believe Johnson pushed for the change to shore up his right flank ahead of next month’s Speaker election. The Senate is expected to easily pass the NDAA as well, but some Democrats could side against it over the Johnson-led effort. ”To be sure, the NDAA has some bad provisions Democrats would not have included,” Schumer said. “And there are other provisions that were left out of NDAA which we still hope can get done elsewhere.” Among the items included in the bill are a 14.5 percent pay raise for junior enlisted troops and a 4.5 percent pay hike for all other military members. It also includes language barring the Defense Department from backing critical race theory in academic institutions or military training exercises that are run by the Pentagon, and another yearlong hiring freeze on positions related to diversity, equity and inclusion programs. The overall price tag checked in at a lower point than where some top Republicans were hopeful it would. Sen. Roger Wicker (Miss.), the top GOP member on the Senate Armed Services Committee, and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) pushed for an additional $25 billion, but came up empty on that end.

Democratic senators introduce defense bill amendment to block GOP transgender restriction - A large group of Democratic senators introduced an amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) on Monday that would ensure the right for the children of service members to access gender-affirming care. Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) led 20 other Democratic senators in introducing the amendment that would strike the language included in the House-passed version of the NDAA that prohibits transgender children of service members from accessing gender-affirming care. “Let’s be clear: we’re talking about parents who are in uniform serving our country who have earned the right to make the best decisions for their families,” Baldwin said in a statement. “I trust our servicemembers and their doctors to make the best healthcare decisions for their kids, not politicians.” The restriction on medical care for transgender children of service members would put limitations on the care for up to 7,000 youth, according to Baldwin. The House passed its version of the NDAA last week, with 140 Democrats objecting. Several Democrats had objected to the transgender restriction before the vote. It’s unclear how much pushback Democrats will muster in the Senate on the NDAA, which went into conference for months to reconcile House and Senate versions, if the amendment does not pass. The annual defense bill is a must-pass piece of legislation every year, providing critical funding for the Department of Defense. This year’s NDAA includes $884 billion for the Pentagon.

Senate Passes Massive $895 Billion National Defense Authorization Act - On Wednesday, the Senate passed the $895 billion 2025 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). The House passed the mammoth bill last week, and it now heads to President Biden’s desk for his signature.The spending bill passed the Senate in a vote of 85-14, easily getting the 60 votes that it needed. The NDAA primarily funds the Pentagon and includes some spending for other government agencies’ military programs.While the NDAA is massive, it does not nearly account for total US military-related spending. According to veteran defense analyst Winslow Wheeler, based on the $895 billion request by the White House, US national security spending for 2025 is expected to reach about $1.77 trillion.Wheeler’s estimate accounts for military-related spending from other government agencies not funded by the NDAA, such as the Department of Veteran Affairs and Homeland Security. It also includes the national security share of the interest accrued on the US debt and other factors.In recent years, Congress has also authorized massive “emergency” supplemental spending bills to fund proxy wars overseas. In April, President Biden signed a massive $95 billion supplemental that included military aid for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, and the Philippines.

Tense weekend negotiations delay spending package - Last-minute negotiations over the weekend held up the release of a stopgap spending and disaster aid bill on Sunday, sending Congress’ year-end work into a tailspin — for now.Leaders are expected to release the continuing resolution and disaster funding supplemental Monday — one day later than anticipated after discussions over farm funding heated up while negotiations over permitting reform appeared to hit a dead end.The new timeline would set up a House vote on the package around mid-week at the earliest and pin the slow-moving Senate against Friday night’s shutdown deadline.The disaster aid portion has broad bipartisan support and appears to be on track to survive the eleventh-hour negotiations, but congressional leaders have offered few details about what the rest of the bill will look like. Any controversial provisions could threaten to further delay passage.House leaders indicated last week that they intended to try to advance the legislation through the Rules Committee, which would allow the bill to pass on the floor with a simple majority vote rather than the two-thirds vote required under fast-track procedures.Despite some resistance on the Rules panel from hard-line conservatives who typically don’t vote for continuing resolutions, it may be leadership’s only option if lawmakers are unable to strike a deal on the farm aid and conservation funding.Farm groups and farm-district Republicans made demands over the weekend for the badly needed money to be included, and some of those GOP lawmakers suggested they would vote against any proposal that did not include the money.The standoff sparked when an agreement envisioned by Agriculture Committee leaders on both sides of the aisle appeared to fall apart.House Democratic staff members said House Republican leaders opposed including as much as $14.5 billion in conservation money from Democrats’ 2022 climate law, and Democrats reportedly balked at the inclusion of farm aid without that conservation money.“The failure to include economic assistance will have devastating and lasting consequences on our farm families, the rural communities in which they live and American agriculture. For that reason, we intend to oppose any supplemental spending package that does not provide meaningful assistance to our farmers,” said a joint statement from House Agriculture Chair Glenn Thompson (R-Pa.) and his Senate Agriculture ranking member John Boozman (R-Ark.).On Saturday, the conservative-leaning American Farm Bureau Federation expressed disappointment that “Congress appears to [be turning] a blind eye to the agricultural recession” and called on farm-district lawmakers to oppose the spending bill if it does not include economic aid for farmers“It’s just plain unacceptable that our elected leaders are considering putting politics first,” Zippy Duvall, the group’s president, said in a statement. “I hope reasonable members of Congress take a stand for the good folks who stock their pantries.”

Congress unveils stopgap spending bill to prevent partial government shutdown - (AP) — Congressional leaders have unveiled a stopgap spending bill that will keep the federal government funded through March 14 and provide more than $100 billion in emergency aid to help states and local communities recover from Hurricanes Helene and Milton and other natural disasters. The measure would prevent a partial government shutdown set to begin after midnight Friday. It would kick final decisions on this budget year’s spending levels to a new Republican-led Congress and President-elect Donald Trump. The continuing resolution generally continues current spending levels for agencies. Passage of the measure is one of the final actions that lawmakers will consider this week before adjourning for the holidays and making way for the next Congress. It’s the second short-term funding measure the lawmakers have taken up this fall as they struggled to pass the dozen annual appropriations bills before the new fiscal year began Oct. 1, as they typically do. The bill will provide $100.4 billion in disaster relief, with an additional $10 billion in economic assistance for farmers struggling with low commodity prices and high input costs. “We have to be able to help those who are in these dire straits,” said House Speaker Mike Johnson told reporters. Net farm income is projected to decline 4.1% this year after falling 19.4% the year before from the record highs reached in 2022. Johnson indicated more farm aid could be delivered in the next Congress, saying “we can’t do all it right now.” “Congress is doing the best it can under difficult circumstances, and I think it will be a big boost for the industry,” Johnson said. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said the agreement was “free of cuts and poison pills,” and would provide money for Democratic priorities like child care, workforce training and job placement. “With this agreement, we are now on our way to avoiding a government shutdown,” Schumer said. Rep. Glenn Thompson, the Republican chairman of the House Agriculture Committee, said he was hoping for more economic relief for farmers, but “it’s a great start.” “I think it’s going to send the right signal to the markets that most farmers and ranchers are going to be able to get eligible for the credit they need to borrow in order to plant a crop or raise a herd,” Thompson said. President Joe Biden has sought about $114 billion in disaster aid, submitting a $99 billion request in November, telling lawmakers the funding was “urgently needed.” The administration subsequently updated its request to include funding to repair federal facilities damaged due to natural disasters. The largest share of the money, about $29 billion, will go to the main disaster relief fund at the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The fund helps with debris removal, repairing public infrastructure and providing financial assistance to survivors. About $21 billion goes to help farmers who have experienced crop or livestock losses. Another $8 billion will go to help rebuild and repair highways and bridges in more than 40 states and territories. And some $12 billion would go toward helping communities recover through block grants administered by the Department of Housing and Urban Development. About $2.2 billion would go to low-interest loans for businesses, nonprofits and homeowners trying to rebuild after a disaster.

US Congress lines up stopgap bill to avert partial government shutdown (Reuters) - Top Republicans and Democrats in the U.S. Congress unveiled a stopgap measure on Tuesday to keep federal agencies funded through March 14, which would avert a partial government shutdown that would otherwise begin on Saturday.The measure would likely keep the roughly $6.2 trillion federal budget running at its current level, funding programs ranging from the military, air traffic controllers and federal regulators for areas ranging from drug safety to securities markets.Rank-and-file members of Congress will now review the measure's details, with some hardline Republicans in the House of Representatives already signaling opposition to some elements, meaning that some Democratic votes will likely be necessary for passage.It was unclear when the Republican-controlled House will vote, but if successful the Democratic-majority Senate would aim to take up the legislation before Friday's midnight deadline and send it to President Joe Biden to sign it into law.The package includes $100.4 billion in new emergency funding to help states including North Carolina and Florida recover from devastating hurricanes, as well as western wildfires and other recent disasters.That money would include $29 billion for the Federal Emergency Management Agency's disaster relief fund; $21 billion for aid to farmers hit by flooding and other losses; and $10 billion in economic assistance for them, according to the legislative text.State and local communities would receive $12 billion in block grants, and $8 billion would be earmarked for the Transportation Department's highway and road disaster relief. Nearly $5.7 billion in new funding would go to the Pentagon's Virginia-class submarine building by General Dynamics Corp and Huntington Ingalls Industries, and about $2.9 billion is set for the Columbia-class model.The spending package includes more than $2 billion to help small businesses bounce back after natural disasters, and approximately $740 million to repair National Aeronautics and Space Administration facilities after recent hurricanes.Also tucked into the legislation is a greenlight for year-round sales of gasoline with a higher ethanol blend, known as E15, and more than $13 million for security for U.S. Supreme Court justices at their residences.Should lawmakers fail to act in time, federal agencies would enter a partial shutdown beginning on Saturday.House Speaker Mike Johnson leads a narrow and restive 219-211 Republican majority and has repeatedly over the past year had to rely on Democratic support to pass major legislation.Representative Rosa DeLauro, the top Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee, said in a statement she supported the "responsible and necessary" spending package.The stopgap measure is needed because Congress failed to pass its one-dozen annual appropriations bills in time for the current fiscal year, which began on Oct. 1. The government's "mandatory" programs, which include Social Security and Medicare retirement and healthcare benefits and represent about two-thirds of the budget, renew automatically.That has contributed to the rising federal debt, which exceeds $36 trillion. Congress will have to address that again early next year, when a 2023 deal to extend the nation's "debt ceiling" expires. Failure could shock bond markets with potentially severe economic consequences.Democrats had pushed for a longer bill funding the government through the end of its current fiscal year ending Sept. 30, but Republicans wanted to wait for final agreement until after President-elect Donald Trump is sworn in on Jan. 20 and their party takes its majorities in both the Senate and the House of Representatives.Trump and congressional Republicans campaigned all year on a promise of significantly cutting the number of federal workers and proposing deep cuts to many of the government's programs.Trump has created an advisory committee called the Department of Government Efficiency, headed by Tesla founder Elon Musk, the world's richest person, and former presidential candidate and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy. Neither has any government experience. Riding along in this spending bill is a one-year extension of federal farm programs, including commodity subsidies and food and nutrition benefits for low-income people. Without such an extension, prices for milk, cheese and other dairy products would skyrocket after Dec. 31

Spending bill to prevent government shutdown unveiled but Johnson’s dealmaking with Democrats angers conservatives | CNN Politics — Lawmakers unveiled a stop-gap spending bill on Tuesday night to prevent a shutdown that funds the government through March 14 and includes $100 billion in disaster relief and other key provisions. The deal would avert a lame duck showdown, instead punting major spending decisions to the incoming Trump administration. Its release comes as conservatives have grown increasingly frustrated with Speaker Mike Johnson over the negotiations, a warning sign for the House GOP leader who faces a vote to keep the gavel at the start of the new Congress. The deal had been delayed by at least a day as leaders of both parties haggled for their own legislative priorities in the end-of-year package. In addition to disaster relief, a top priority for Democrats and the Biden administration, Republicans pushed for farm aid and the package includes $10 billion in economic assistance for farmers, an issue that became a massive last-minute negotiation in the package. But the speaker’s late-December dealmaking with Democrats provoked intense anger across his GOP conference. Many Republicans are irate at the number of provisions that have been tacked onto a bill that was intended to simply extend current funding levels and stop a shutdown. If the measure passes — as expected — it will hand Johnson, incoming Senate Majority Leader John Thune and President-elect Donald Trump a major funding headache, and a test of their governing powers, early in 2025. Trump’s first few months when he returns to Washington were already expected to be jam-packed: Congressional leaders — already under pressure to confirm Trump’s Cabinet quickly in the Senate — must also defuse a debt limit standoff. Trump is also eying a pair of huge legislative packages, focused first on border and energy policy, and second on taxes. This new funding deadline will create a major political test for the Trump administration and the GOP’s two relatively green Hill leaders. Further complicating matters, Johnson will have almost no room for error early on in the new Congress, before the chamber can replace members who leave for Trump’s Cabinet. The decision to punt the spending fight had been opposed by many senior Republicans, including the powerful Appropriations Chairman Rep. Tom Cole, a Republican from Oklahoma who had preferred to strike a deal with Democrats as they left power. But conservatives — like those in the House Freedom Caucus — had insisted that they could reach a better funding deal when the GOP takes full control of government in January. Key provisions of the bill The bill includes nearly $100 billion in disaster relief and another $10 billion in economic assistance for farmers. The breakdown includes $29 billion for FEMA’s disaster relief fund; another $2.2 billion for the Small Business Administration’s disaster loan program; $21 billion in disaster relief for farmers including $10 billion in economic assistance for farmers, and $3.5 billion for state and tribal assistance grants to go toward water systems damaged in disasters. A Department of Housing and Urban Development program for disaster relief would get $12 billion and federal highway and roads disaster relief would total $8 billion. The funding bill also has a huge win for the city of Washington, DC, as it seeks to become the future home of the Washington Commanders. After years of infighting, Hill leaders allowed the team to negotiate with DC leaders to return to the site of Robert F. Kennedy Stadium. The provision came after Hill leaders satisfied other demands from Maryland leaders, including for the federal government to cover the full cost of the replacement of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore. The legislation will also allow the US Treasury Department to eventually recoup funds from any settlements related to the Key Bridge collapse to pay for the rebuilding.

What's in Congress’s 1,500-page government funding deal to avert shutdown -- Congress on Tuesday rolled out its last major funding deal of the year and is expected to move quickly to try to pass it ahead of a Friday government shutdown deadline.The bill, which is more than 1,500 pages, would keep the government funded at current levels through March 14, buying time for the incoming Congress to finish its funding work for fiscal 2025.It also includes a number of add-ons, including more than $100 billion in disaster and emergency funding, a health care-related package, and an extension of the farm bill.Below are just some of the highlights from the package:

• Disaster assistance - Lawmakers agreed to tack on roughly $100 billion in disaster aid as members on both sides of the aisle have dialed up pressure on leaders for relief following hurricanes Helene and Milton. That includes nearly $30 billion in funding for the Federal Emergency Management Agency, as officials have sounded alarm over the agency’s Disaster Relief Fund in recent months. It also includes disaster relief for farmers, and $4 million for the Office of Inspector General for oversight. There’s also about $20 billion for disaster assistance to farmers and producers that falls under dollars for the Department of Agriculture, roughly $1 billion for the Emergency Watershed Protection Program, and more than $800 million for the Emergency Conservation Program, as outlined in a breakdown of the disaster relief portion of the package. More than $10 billion in funding would also go toward the departments of Interior, Agriculture Forest Service and the Environmental Protection Agency for costs incurred by disasters in 2024 and in recent years. The Department of Housing and Urban Development would also receive $12 billion for Community Development Block Grant Disaster Recovery, and negotiators say more than $3 billion would go to the Defense Department for repair from extreme weather events for military programs. The Defense Department would also receive about $2 billion in funds partly for construction on Guam following Typhoon Mawar.
• PBM reforms, health extenders - Lawmakers agreed to attach an expansive health care package to the legislation. The health portion contains reforms to the pharmaceutical benefit managers (PBMs) industry, extensions of Medicare telehealth flexibilities, reauthorizations of legislation to prevent pandemics and address the opioid crisis, payments to community health centers and other policies. The PBM changes have been a bipartisan priority for years but until now never made it to the finish. PBMs negotiate discounted drug prices for insurers and employers. The measures include a ban on linking PBM compensation to a drug’s Medicare price. Lawmakers and PBM critics say higher drug prices lead to higher fees to PBMs; the higher the price of a covered drug, the steeper the potential discount, some of which PBMs keep as profit. So there’s an incentive for PBMs to steer patients to the highest cost drugs.
• Farm bill extension - The package includes another one-year extension of the 2018 farm bill after Congress also failed to pass a longer extension last year, as well as an additional $10 billion in economic assistance for farmers. Lawmakers said some of the assistance for farmers had emerged as a key sticking point as funding talks ramped up in the past week. Some Republicans threatened to vote against the stopgap measure if it did not include economic assistance for farmers and ranchers.
• Key bridge funding - Democrats have also lauded a section of the bill they say would cover replacement costs for the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore. “With the inclusion in the Continuing Resolution of our Baltimore BRIDGE Relief Act, Congress is now committed to covering the full cost of replacing the bridge. This will allow the bridge it to be built as quickly as possible,” Maryland Democratic Sens. Ben Cardin and Chris Van Hollen said in a joint statement Tuesday. “Our provision also ensures that the federal taxpayers will be reimbursed through proceeds from insurance payments and litigation taken on by the Department of Justice, the Maryland Attorney General and others.”There’s also $8 billion in funding for federal highway and roads disaster relief that falls under the Transportation Department.
• Small Business Association - Lawmakers agreed on more than $2 billion in funding for the Small Business Administration after officials said its disaster loan program — which businesses and homeowners rely on for low-interest loans to recover from disasters — ran out of funds during hurricane season.
• RFK Stadium - Another line item in the stopgap would also transfer administrative jurisdiction over the RFK Memorial Stadium Campus to the District of Columbia in a move that could lead to the return of the Washington Commanders to the nation’s capital.House Oversight and Accountability Committee Chair James Comer (R-Ky.), who led legislative effort along with Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton (D-D.C.), expressed excitement about language getting tucked into the stopgap to make the move earlier Tuesday.If it passes, the legislation unveiled Tuesday would direct the Interior secretary to transfer administrative jurisdiction to the District, allowing it to use the campus for stadium redevelopment and other purposes.

Johnson going forward with stopgap funding bill despite Elon Musk opposition - Elon Musk, a close ally of President-elect Donald Trump, came out against Speaker Mike Johnson going forward with a stopgap government funding bill on Wednesday, saying, "This bill should not pass."Johnson was asked about the Tesla CEO's post during an interview on "Fox & Friends." He appeared to not worry about Musk's post influencing the ability of the funding bill to get through both chambers ahead of a partial government shutdown deadline at the end of the day Friday. "I was communicating with Elon last night. Elon and Vivek [Ramaswamy] and I are on a text chain together and I was explaining to them the background of this. Vivek and I talked last night about midnight, and he said 'look I get it.' He said, 'We understand you're in an impossible position,'" Johnson said. Johnson said Musk and Ramaswamy, the two DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) leaders, are aware of the tough spot the speaker is in with a slim majority and Democratic control of the Senate and White House. DOGE is an outside-of-government (or private) operation. "We gotta get this done because here's the key. By doing this, we are clearing the decks, and we are setting up for Trump to come in roaring back with the American first agenda. That's what we are going to run with gusto beginning January 3 when we start the new Congress," he said. Johnson urged for Congress to pass this funding bill "so we don't have a shutdown." "We get to March where we can put our fingerprints on the spending. That is where the big changes start," Johnson said. The push comes as Republicans and Democrats scramble to pass a bill before government funding expires Friday night. Johnson, whose speakership has been characterized by beating back criticism from his far-right flank, had originally promised a clean bill that would solely extend current levels of government funding to prevent a shutdown. However, natural disasters and headwinds for farmers, necessitated additional federal spending. In the end, the bill included $100 billion for recovery efforts from Hurricanes Helene and Milton and another $10 billion for economic assistance for farmers.

Trump tells GOP to reject funding bill that would avoid a government shutdown - Not even 24 hours after congressional leaders released a 1,500-page bill that would keep the government funded for the next three months, the threat of a shutdown at the end of this week is back. Republicans in Congress are being pressured by the president-elect and vice president-elect to block the bill.On social media, Mr. Trump said Congress should instead pass a streamlined spending bill and he told Republicans to get smart and tough.Congressional correspondent Lisa Desjardins has been following the latest.So, Lisa, three days until government funding runs out, what's the deal with this bill? How much jeopardy is this facing? Lisa Desjardins: We talked last night about deja vu, but I want to tell you that today has been extraordinary. And the stakes here are very high. This bill is now really on the verge.In fact, you can pretty much say this bill is falling apart and it's being taken off the table by Republicans. Now, I want to explain a little bit about why. There are a host of issues that Republicans don't like in it. That the money for disaster relief is not paid for is one. That it would include some cost of living raises for members of Congress. Also, it would exempt members of Congress from Obamacare.There's also money for seasonal and migrant workers who are here legally, but some Republicans don't like it. But, overall, there's a process concern here. They say they weren't consulted, they didn't have enough time.So I will show you what's been happening today from members of Congress across a wide spectrum of members. Now, if you look at this, Chip Roy, Republican, known as a conservative, he wrote: "Vote no."Nicole Malliotakis from New York: "I will be voting no." She's more moderate. Then we have got Representative Golden of Maine. He will be voting against it. He is a Democrat. So, really almost the entire spectrum here saying they had a problem with this bill.It is a political disaster for Speaker Mike Johnson. And another factor here is that Trump is speaking out. But that came after an important figure in the Trump world, Elon Musk, tweeted out that he was against it. So what we're seeing here is a problem for Mike Johnson, but also a case of, who is really driving the ship here, not just for Republicans, but of government itself? Republicans who have a problem today would like 72 hours before they are passing any bill. That's usual procedure, but we have the deadline Friday. So what we expect now is potentially the House Rules Committee, I'm told, may meet tonight. There may be a short, a very small bill that just kicks funding down the road. We don't know for how long. We don't know what it will look like. They don't know what it will look like But I want to stress why this all matters. It's not just about funding, though, obviously, that is a lot at stake as we enter Christmas time and Hanukkah.

Government funding plan collapses as Trump makes new demands days before shutdown (AP) — President-elect Donald Trump abruptly rejected a bipartisan plan Wednesday to prevent a Christmastime government shutdown, instead telling House Speaker Mike Johnson and Republicans to essentially renegotiate — days before a deadline when federal funding runs out. Trump’s sudden entrance into the debate and new demands sent Congress spiraling as lawmakers are trying to wrap up work and head home for the holidays. It left Johnson scrambling late into the night at the Capitol trying to engineer a new plan before Friday’s deadline to keep government open. “Republicans must GET SMART and TOUGH,” Trump and Vice President-elect JD Vance said in a statement.The president-elect made an almost unrealistic proposal that combined some continuation of government funds along with a much more controversial provision to raise the nation’s debt limit— something his own party routinely rejects. “Anything else is a betrayal of our country,” they wrote.AP Washington correspondent Sagar Meghani reports President-elect Donald Trump has sunk a deal to keep the government funded days before a shutdown deadline.Democrats decried the GOP revolt over the stopgap measure, which would have also provided some $100.4 billion in disaster aid to states hammered by Hurricanes Helene and Milton and other natural disasters.“House Republicans have been ordered to shut down the government and hurt everyday Americans all across this country,” said House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries.Jeffries said “an agreement is an agreement,” and by backing out of it “the House Republicans “will now own any harm that is visited upon the American people.”Already, the massive 1,500-page bill was on the verge of collapse, as hard-right conservatives rejected the increased spending. They were egged on by Trump’s billionaire ally Elon Musk, who rejected the plan almost as soon as it was released.Rank-and-file lawmakers complained about the extras, which included their first pay raises in more than a decade — a shock after one of the most unproductive, chaotic sessions in modern times.Even the addition of much-needed disaster aid, some $100.4 billion in the aftermath of hurricanes and other natural calamities that ravaged states this year, plus $10 billion in economic assistance for farmers failed to win over the budget-slashing GOP. A number of Republicans had been waiting for Trump to signal whether they should vote yes or no.“This should not pass,” Musk posted on his social media site X in the wee hours of Wednesday morning.One lawmaker said office phone lines were flooded with calls from constituents“My phone was ringing off the hook,” said Rep. Andy Barr, R-Ky. “The people who elected us are listening to Elon Musk.”The outcome comes as no surprise for Johnson, who, like other Republican House speakersbefore him, has been unable to persuade his majority to go along with the routine needs of federal government operations, which they would prefer to slash.He met behind closed doors late into the night at the Capitol with GOP lawmakers trying to figure out a way out of the bind. Vance joined them until nearly 10 p.m., his young son — in pajamas — in tow.“We had a productive conversation,” Vance said as he and his son exited the speaker’s office, declining repeated questions about the details.“We’re in the middle of these negotiations, but I think we’ll be able to solve some problems here.”

Live updates: Government shutdown looms, GOP scraps government funding bill after Trump demands changes - Some Trump allies in the House are now openly calling for a government shutdown after Speaker Mike Johnson’s effort to pass the bipartisan spending deal collapsed due to President-elect Donald Trump’s opposition. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia wrote, “I’m all in,” on X, in response to a post from former Speaker Newt Gingrich saying that Trump and Republicans should not be afraid of a shutdown. “The government can shut down all the way until Jan 20th as far as I’m concerned,” Greene wrote. January 20 is the day that President-elect Donald Trump will be inaugurated. Greene added a warning shot to Speaker Johnson, writing, “WE MUST STAND FIRM WITH THE AMERICAN PEOPLE TO STOP THE MADNESS!! No matter what. Even if we have to elect new leadership.”Rep. Tim Burchett of Tennessee posted to X, “Shut it down.”Rep. Nancy Mace of South Carolina posted an image to X with text that reads “Shut. It. Down.” In the same post, she wrote, “At this point if there is no plan, let the September CR lapse and let’s reset Jan. 20th.”In a sign of how contained to the House the negotiation to come up with a plan to fund the government is, the two top appropriators in the Senate — chairwoman Democrat Sen. Patty Murray and ranking member Sen. Susan Collins, a Republican — say they have no guidance for how the House is going to find a path forward.The situation is rapidly evolving, and Murray and Collins said the Senate is not playing the cards right now, the House is.On her way to a GOP lunch, Collins told CNN she was hoping to get information there, but that everyone in the Senate is “waiting on the House.”Murray quipped that “they have a bill. We are waiting to vote on it.” The White House and Democrats on Capitol Hill are widely in agreement that the government spending drama is — and should remain — for Republicans to fix, according to one source familiar with current sentiments. To that end, Democrats are eager to publicly highlight the GOP’s intraparty clashes and direct any public blame to the Republicans. As the White House press secretary’s brief statement released last night indicated, a key strategy for Democrats is to shine a spotlight on how much individual states would be losing on important things like disaster relief if the government were to shut down.White House officials have been in close coordination with congressional Democrats in an effort to ensure that the public messaging coming out of the White House and from Capitol Hill are closely aligned, multiple sources told CNN. For example, the White House and Democratic leadership teams in Congress held multiple calls on Wednesday to coordinate “the way forward,” one official said, including discussions about messaging.It’s unclear whether President Joe Biden himself has directly spoken with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries or Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer since President-elect Donald Trump upended the shutdown talks on Wednesday.Senior White House staff has consistently updated the president on the situation and consulted him on the overall messaging, one official said. The president will return to the White House this evening from Wilmington, Delaware, where he’s been since Tuesday night.

Senate eyes late-night vote after House approves bill to prevent government shutdown - With less than an hour to go to a midnight government shutdown deadline, the Senate is preparing to give final passage to a new plan that would temporarily fund federal operations and disaster aid, but drops President-elect Donald Trump’s demands for a debt limit increase into the new year. The House approved the new bill overwhelmingly, 366-34. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer says Senate Republicans and Democrats have reached an agreement that will allow them to take a vote late Friday on the government funding package.Schumer said on the Senate floor that the time agreement would allow passage “before the midnight deadline.”There will be a series of votes ahead of final passage, but support for the legislation is clear in the Senate. “I have very good news for my colleagues and for the country,” Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said in announcing a time agreement for the vote.And while the bill won’t get to President Joe Biden to be signed into law before funding lapses, don’t expect to see an impact on government operations.There will not be agency furloughs, and most federal workers are already off the clock over the weekend anyhow.According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a budget watchdog, 10 funding gaps of three days or fewer have occurred since 1981. Most took place over a weekend, when government operations were only minimally affected.

Government funding bill clears Congress, averting a shutdown - Facing a government shutdown deadline, the Senate rushed through final passage early Saturday of a bipartisan plan that would temporarily fund federal operations and disaster aid, dropping President-elect Donald Trump’s demands for a debt limit increase into the new year. House Speaker Mike Johnson had insisted Congress would “meet our obligations” and not allow federal operations to shutter ahead of the Christmas holiday season. But the day’s outcome was uncertain after Trump doubled down on his insistence that a debt ceiling increase be included in any deal — if not, he said in an early morning post, let the closures “start now.”The House approved Johnson’s new bill overwhelmingly, 366-34. The Senate worked into the night to pass it, 85-11, just after the deadline. At midnight, the White House said it had ceased shutdown preparations. “This is a good outcome for the country, ” Johnson said after the House vote, adding he had spoken with Trump and the president-elect “was certainly happy about this outcome, as well.”President Joe Biden, who has played a less public role in the process throughout a turbulent week, was expected to sign the measure into law Saturday.“There will be no government shutdown,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said.The final product was the third attempt from Johnson, the beleaguered House speaker, to achieve one of the basic requirements of the federal government — keeping it open. And it raised stark questions about whether Johnson will be able to keep his job, in the face of angry GOP colleagues, and work alongside Trump and billionaire ally Elon Musk, who called the legislative plays from afar.Trump’s last-minute demand was almost an impossible ask, and Johnson had almost no choice but to work around his pressure for a debt ceiling increase. The speaker knew there wouldn’t be enough support within the GOP majority to pass any funding package, since many Republican deficit hawks prefer to slash the federal government and certainly wouldn’t allow more debt.Instead, the Republicans, who will have full control of the White House, House and Senate next year, with big plans for tax cuts and other priorities, are showing they must routinely rely on Democrats for the votes needed to keep up with the routine operations of governing.

Biden signs stopgap funding bill, but congressional fight to continue - President Joe Biden signed a congressional spending bill into law on Saturday morning, putting to bed the threat of a potential Christmastime government shutdown and kicking the issue for a new Congress and a new president to address in the spring. On Friday evening, the House and Senate passed a stopgap spending deal that funds the government at its current levels through mid-March, providing $110 billion in relief to help natural disaster survivors and aid farmers, granting an extension for the farm bill, and funding to rebuild Baltimore’s collapsed Francis Scott Key Bridge.

Biden ‘AWOL’ amid shutdown fight: ‘He’s completely disappeared’ - President Biden and his administration were largely absent from the onerous negotiations on government funding that gripped Capitol Hill this week.Instead, President-elect Trump and his allies were the ones wrestling with lawmakers over a continuing resolution as a government shutdown appeared increasingly inevitable. The White House on Friday blew off a host of questioning over Biden’s absence from the talks, insisting they were staying out of it in part because it was Republicans who had to clean up a “mess” they created. But, Biden’s silence, with no indication that administration officials were heading to Capitol Hill as the funding deadline approached, could prove damaging to the president’s final days in office.“We’re just not seeing them. And he’s completely disappeared,” GOP strategist Doug Heye said of the president. “Biden is AWOL and it’s reasonable to question whether some of that is because he’s just not up to the task.”When peppered with questions about why Biden has made no public statements or appearances regarding the funding fight, press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said it was part of a “strategy” to make it clear that “this is for Republicans in the House to fix.”That did little to deter more questions in similar veins about what Biden’s plans were if the government shutdown over the holidays, why Biden himself wasn’t speaking to reporters, with some reporters asking if Americans deserve to hear from the president hours before a shutdown. Others also asked about Biden’s leadership position at the moment and why Biden doesn’t want to counter Trump and Elon Musk’s messaging on government funding. Some Democrats took note that, on the flip side, lawmakers aren’t pleading with the president to jump in and help reach a funding agreement, pointing to a larger issue that his party is ready for the Biden years to end.“The bigger story is that no one is asking him to be involved. Democrats in Washington just want the Bidens and their people to get the hell out of town so we can move on from them,” a Democratic strategist told The Hill. If Biden had been more involved with continuing resolution negotiations, former Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R-Fla.) questioned if he would even be listened to considering how absent he has been. “President Biden has been in lame duck status for most of this year. Even if he had something to say, it doesn’t seem there would be anyone listening,” Curbelo said. “His only strategy is to let President Trump, Elon Musk, and the Speaker own the chaos, since it was their decision to torpedo that bipartisan agreement [Speaker Mike] Johnson had built.”

Netanyahu Says Had ‘Friendly’ Conversation With Trump About Achieving ‘Victory’ Against Iran -On Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that he spoke with President-elect Donald Trump about Israel’s need to achieve “victory” against Iran and its allies in the region.“I unequivocally declare to Hezbollah and to Iran: In order to prevent you from attacking us, we will continue to take action against you as necessary, in every arena and at all times,” Netanyahu said.“I discussed all of this last night with my friend, US President-elect Donald Trump. We had a very friendly, warm and important discussion. We discussed the need to complete Israel’s victory and we spoke at length about the efforts we are making to free our hostages,” the prime minister added.The conversation between Netanyahu and Trump came after reports saidIsrael sees an opportunity to bomb Iran following the regime change in Syria that ousted former President Bashar al-Assad. The Wall Street Journalalso reported that the Trump transition team is discussing the idea of strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.The pretext for any Israeli or US action against Iranian nuclear facilities would be to stop Iran from building a bomb, but there’s no evidence that Tehran has decided to pursue nuclear weapons, something recentlyacknowledged by the CIA.In his remarks on Sunday, Netanyahu also said Israel was changing the “face” of the Middle East. “Syria is not the same Syria. Lebanon is not the same Lebanon. Gaza is not the same Gaza. And the head of the axis, Iran, is not the same Iran; it has also felt the might of our arm.The Israeli leader claimed Israel has “no interest in a conflict with Syria,” but Israel has unleashed a heavy air campaign against the country since the downfall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, launching over 800 strikes.

Report: US Had Foreknowledge of HTS Offensive To Topple Assad and Prepared Other Rebel Group To Join - The US had foreknowledge of the offensive led by the al-Qaeda-linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham that ousted former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and helped another rebel group join the fight, The Telegraphreported on Wednesday.The report said the US notified the Revolutionary Commando Army (RCA), a US-funded militia based out of a US base at Al Tanf in southern Syria, to “be ready” for an attack that could lead to the end of Assad’s rule.“They did not tell us how it would happen,” Bashar al-Mashadani, an RCA commander, told The Telegraph. “We were just told: ‘Everything is about to change. This is your moment. Either Assad will fall, or you will fall.’ But they did not say when or where, they just told us to be ready.”In October, the US brought several other Sunni Muslim militias under the command of the RCA, swelling the force from 800 fighters to about 3,000. All of the fighters are armed by the US, and the US pays their salaries of $400 per month. The US also backs the Kurdish-led SDF in eastern Syria, but the RCA is a separate force.When the HTS-led force began its offensive from Syria’s northwest Idlib province and advanced south toward Damascus, the RCA headed north. According to The Telegraph, the US-funded group now controls about one-fifth of Syria’s territory. Mashadani spoke to the paper from a former Syrian government air base that was used by Russia outside of the city of Palmyra.Mashadani said RCA and HTS were cooperating during the offensive and that the US coordinated the communication between the two groups from Al Tanf. The US has celebrated the overthrow of Assad and made clear it’s willing to work with HTS despite the fact that the group is an offshoot of al-Qaeda and designated by the State Department as a foreign terrorist organization.The Telegraph report makes clear that the US was aware of the planned HTS offensive. RCA members said the US told them about the opportunity to overthrow Assad in early November, about three weeks before the offensive started. Mashadani said the US wanted his group to capture territory to keep it out of the hands of ISIS, which RCA has helped the US fight in the past.The Biden administration is sending a high-level State Department officialto Damascus to meet with HTS’s leader Mohammad Abu al-Julani, who has a $10 million US bounty on his head. Julani founded the al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria, known as al-Nusra Front. In 2016, Julani changed the name of Nusra as part of a rebranding campaign to gain support from the West and merged the group with several other Islamist factions to form HTS in 2017.

US Launches More Airstrikes in Syria, Claims 12 ISIS Fighters Killed - US Central Command (CENTCOM) said Monday that its forces launched airstrikes in Syria, claiming the attacks targeted ISIS camps and killed 12 ISIS fighters.CENTCOM said in a press release that the strikes “were conducted as part of the ongoing mission to disrupt, degrade, and defeat ISIS, preventing the terrorist group from conducting external operations and to ensure that ISIS does not seek opportunities to reconstitute in central Syria.”It said the airstrikes were launched against targets in areas previously controlled by Russia and the previous government of Bashar al-Assad, who fled the country following the takeover of Damascus by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, an offshoot of al-Qaeda.Since Assad’s downfall, the US, Turkey, and Israel have all been bombing Syria. On December 8, the day Assad fled, the US launched heavy airstrikes in Syria, saying it hit 75 ISIS-related targets.US officials justify the strikes by saying they don’t want ISIS to reconstitute itself following the regime change. But on the other hand, the US has supported the HTS takeover even though the group is designated by the US as a terrorist organization and has a similar ideology to ISIS.The US has also made clear it has no intention of withdrawing the troops that it has occupying eastern Syria. The US uses ISIS as its excuse to stay in Syria, but the presence is more about keeping Iran out of the area.

Pentagon Reveals the US Has More Than Twice the Number of Troops in Syria Than Previously Disclosed - On Thursday, the Pentagon revealed the US has roughly 2,000 troops occupying Syria, more than twice the number it has been disclosing.For years, the US has said it has about 900 troops inside Syria. Pentagon spokesman Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said the troops levels have been at 2,000 for a “while,” well before the regime change that ousted former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.Since the regime change in Syria on December 8, the Pentagon has been asked repeatedly about the number of US troops in the country and kept repeating the 900 number. Ryder claimed he had just learned that it was significantly higher than he had been saying.“As you know, we have been briefing you regularly that there are approximately 900 US troops deployed to Syria. In light of the situation in Syria and the significant interest, we recently learned that those numbers were higher, and so asked to look into it. I learned today that in fact there are approximately 2,000 US troops in Syria,” he said. (Map of the military situation in Syria that shows the location of US bases). Ryder claimed the additional forces are on more temporary deployments while 900 are in Syria on a long-term basis. “As I understand it and as it was explained to me, these additional forces are considered temporary rotational forces that deploy to meet shifting mission requirements, whereas the core 900 deployers are on longer-term deployments,” he said.The US has been clear that it has no intention of withdrawing from Syria following the regime change and is using the presence of ISIS fighters as the justification to stay. The presence of US troops in Syria has always been a potential tripwire for a major conflict and is now even more so as the situation in the country is unclear.

US Effort to Extend SDF Ceasefire With Turkey in Northern Syria Fails - With the four-day ceasefire in the Syrian city of Manbij coming to a close, US mediators’ efforts to convince Turkey to make it a permanent deal have reportedly failed. The expectation is that fighting between the US-backed Kurdish SDF and Turkey and their allies will likely resume soon.Last week there was major fighting over the city of Manbij. The four-day ceasefire was meant to allow Kurdish fighters and their families to withdraw from the city, as Turkey and their allied factions are looking to reclaim the area.SDF spokesman Farhad Shami said that the US attempts to extend the deal failed because of Turkey’s “evasion” on key points. Those points were reportedly a desire to withdraw more Kurdish civilians from Manbij and questions about the disposition of the remains of Suleyman Shah.The SDF and the Kurdish Red Crescent were trying to bring vehicles into Manbij to allow them to evacuate more of the population, but they wereprevented from doing so by Turkish-backed militant forces.With the Manbij ceasefire now over, Turkey has reportedly been bringing major reinforcements into the area around Kobani, including heavy weapons and armored vehicles. Kobani is right on the Turkish border, but only about 35 miles from Manbij. This would likely be a staging location for new fighting against the SDF over Manbij and the surrounding area.Turkey isn’t the only one that has designs against the SDF’s control of Syria’s northeast. Syria’s new Defense Minister, Hasan al-Hamada made comments after a Saturday visit to Manbij, declaring the Kurdish YPG (the main organization within the SDF) the “poisoned dagger in the back of the revolution.”

Turkey Says US State Dept Claims of Ceasefire With Kurds Untrue, Vows to Continue Offensive - Last week, a four-day ceasefire was reached between Turkey and the US-backed Kurdish SDF to allow the SDF to withdraw from the contested city of Manbij. That ceasefire expired Monday, though the US State Department announced Tuesday that it had reached a deal with Turkey to extend it until the end of this week.Given the amount of fighting Wednesday, something didn’t add up with that story. Turkish officials are now offering a clarification that there never was any extension of the ceasefire in the first place. They said State Department spokesman Matthew Miller must’ve had a “slip of the tongue” to suggest otherwise.On top of that, Turkish military officials said it was “out of the question” for Turkey to have talks with the SDF, because they consider them a terrorist organization. They further said that the offensive against theKurds will continue until they are fully disarmed.That, it seems, explains why the fighting between Turkey and their allies in the Syrian National Army (SNA) and the SDF never really stopped earlier this week. The SDF’s Manbij Military Council and SNA factions continue to clash around the area, and there have been reports of artillery strikes in the area from both sides. 21 Turkish-backed fighters were killed Wednesday, and a number of SDF fighters as well, though the exact number was not disclosed. There are some more casualties today, though again the exact number is not readily available. At least two civilians, including a five-year-old boy, were killed when an artillery shell hit their home in Abu Qalqal. Turkey has been providing air support for the SNA attacks on the Kurds. Turkish drones have also carried out multiple attacks against targets in the city of Kobani. Those attacks included a strike on Kobani FM, a Kurdish-run radio station.The SDF issued a statement Thursday accusing Turkey and “their mercenaries” of escalating their offensive. They said they’d repelled the attack around Tishreen Dam, south of Kobani, but that Turkish reinforcements are incoming.The statement called on the global community to take a firmer stand against the Turkish escalation, and also called on civilians in Kobani to take up arms to defend their city against the Turkish forces. They said taking the region would be “no picnic” for an invading force.This is shaping up to be a potentially major regional issue. Some in Israel are keen to back the SDF to prevent Turkey from having too much influence in post-Assad Syria. The US also is a close ally to the SDF, though President Trump notably abandoned support for the SDF in 2019 when Turkey was launching a separate offensive against them.The recent regime change in Syria is opening up an opportunity for Turkey to make further moves to tamp down Kurdish autonomy in the northeast. The new government, dominated by the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) appears to feel they owe a debt to Turkey for supporting their offensive, and has spoken out against Kurdish separatist urges. But the HTS is going to have to balance that with their effort to remain palatable to the rest of the West, making this a potential complication for them.

US Official Has 'Good, Productive' Meeting with al-Qaeda-Linked Julani in Damascus - America’s top diplomat for the Middle East traveled to Syria to meet with Abu Mohammad al-Julani. Julani leads Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a designated foreign terrorist organization.US Assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs, Barbara Leaf, met with Julani in Damascus on Friday. One official described the meeting as “good and productive.”Leaf announced after the meeting that Washington would be dropping a $10 million award for Julani’s capture. “Based on our discussion, I told him we would not be pursuing the Rewards for Justice reward offer that has been in effect for some years,” Leaf told reporters.Julani fought for al-Qaeda in Iraq against American soldiers during the Iraq War. He then founded al-Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria, the al-Nusra Front. In recent years, he has attempted to soften his image by giving friendly interviews to Western journalists, often appearing in a suit and with a trimmed beard to obscure his jihadist ideology.Leaf said of Julani after the meeting, who is also going by Ahmad al-Sharaa, “I heard him on his priorities, which are very much rooted in getting Syria on the road to economic recovery.”“We’ve been hearing this for some time, some very pragmatic and moderate statements on various issues, from women’s rights to protection to equal rights for all communities,” she added. “It was a good first meeting. We will judge by deeds, not just by words.” However, one of Julani’s spokesmen explained that women’s role in Syria will be limited by their “nature.” “A woman is an important and honored element of society, but her tasks should be in line with roles she can perform.” He continued, “For example, if we say a woman becomes responsible for the defense ministry, is this in accordance with her being and her psychological and biological nature? There is no doubt that it is not in accordance.”

US Says It Launched Airstrike on Houthi 'Command and Control Facility' in Yemen - -US Central Command said Monday that it launched an airstrike on Yemen, claiming to target a Houthi “command and control” facility in the capital Sanaa.“On Dec. 16 Yemen time, US Central Command (CENTCOM) forces conducted a precision airstrike against a key command and control facility operated by Iran-backed Houthis within Houthi-controlled territory in Sanaa, Yemen,” CENTCOM said in a press release.“The targeted facility was a hub for coordinating Houthi operations, such as attacks against US Navy warships and merchant vessels in the Southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden,” the press release added.A correspondent for Al Mayadeen in Yemen said the strike targeted the Ministry of Defense in Sanna and described it as “American-British aggression,” although the US gave no indication the UK was involved. A day earlier, Yemeni media reported joint US-British strikes in Yemen’s northern Hajjah province.The latest US attack on Yemen comes amid reports that Israel isconsidering launching significant strikes against the Houthis, who have continued to launch attacks against Israel and Israel-linked shipping despite a nearly year-long US bombing campaign.The Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, said on Monday that Yemeni forces launched a missile at Israel. “[In] response to the ongoing massacres against our brothers in Gaza … The missile force carried out a military operation targeting a military target of the Israeli enemy in the occupied Yaffa area, using a Palestine 2 hypersonic ballistic missile,” the group said in a statement, according to The Cradle.In January 2024, President Biden launched a new bombing campaign against the Houthis in defense of Israeli shipping. The UK joined the US for several rounds of significant strikes on Yemen, but the bombings only escalated the situation in the Red Sea as the Houthis began targeting American and British shipping in response.

Trump And Israel Can't Wait To Start Bombing Iran - Caitlin Johnstone = Both Israel and the incoming Trump administration are reportedly eager to start bombing Iran ASAP now that Assad’s out of the way.Israeli media reports that the IDF now sees airstrikes on Iran as much easier to execute now that its pilots don’t have to worry about Syrian air defenses along the way, while The Wall Street Journal reports that the Trump team is weighing its options for airstrikes on Iran to prevent it from obtaining a nuclear weapon (which there’s no evidence Iran is currently trying to do).A new article from The Washington Post titled “Syria’s collapse and Israeli attacks leave Iran exposed” reports that “Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has signaled a desire to capitalize on gains against Hamas and Hezbollah and take on Tehran more aggressively under a new U.S. administration.” The article notes that Trump has expressed openness to war with Iran, saying that “anything can happen”.This comes as the al-Qaeda affiliates who captured Damascus assure the worldthat Syria will no longer allow itself to be used as a launchpad for attacks against Israel. After Assad was ousted I got a bunch of weirdos in my comments claiming that Israel was somehow sad about this development, because Israel and Assad were secretly on the same side. This is one of the dumbest conspiracy theories I’ve been asked to believe in a long time, and I was asked to believe it not by crazy QAnoners or the liberal mass media but by a sector of pro-Palestine leftoids who also love NATO.

Trump Suggests He Could End US-Supported Long-Range Strikes on Russia - President-elect Donald Trump suggested at a press conference at Mar-a-Lago on Monday that he could reverse President Biden’s decision to support long-range missile strikes on Russian territory.Trump said it was a “big mistake” for the Biden administration to greenlight the escalation without asking him what he thought. When asked if he might reverse the decision, the president-elect said, “I might, yeah. I thought it was a very stupid thing to do.”The comments mark the second time in recent days that Trump expressed his concern over the long-range strikes that Ukraine has launched using US ATACMS missiles and British Storm Shadow missiles.In an interview with Time Magazine that was published last week, Trumpsaid that he “vehemently” disagreed with Biden’s decision. The Kremlinnoted Trump’s comments and said Russia agreed with the president-elect.“The statement in itself is fully in harmony with our position. That is, our visions of reasons behind the escalation coincide. And, of course, we like that,” said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.Biden signed off on long-range strikes in Russia despite Moscow making it clear the escalation would risk nuclear war. In response to the step, Russian President Vladimir Putin formally changed Russia’s nuclear doctrine, which lowered the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons.At his press conference, Trump also said that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky should be ready to make a deal with Russia to end the war. “He should be prepared to make a deal. That’s all. Too many people being killed,” he said.

From Marine Reserve to Military Base: Washington and Ecuador’s Quiet Plans for the Galapagos Islands -- Last week, Ecuador’s Daniel Noboa government issued a decree that not only violates article five of the national constitution, which prohibits the establishment of foreign bases on Ecuadorian soil, but makes a complete mockery of the basic concept of environmental conservation. The decree in question effectively hands over the Galapagos islands, one of the world’s most important marine reserves, to the US military as a base — with not the slightest whiff of protest from Western governments or media! On December 10, the Governing Council of the Special Regime of the Galápagos (CGREG) approved the Comprehensive Security Project in the Island Region and the Instructions for the Application of Cooperation Agreements between Ecuador and the United States, two resolutions that seek to address shared security challenges in the province of Galapagos. With a few strokes of a pen, the US military cooperation treaties with Ecuador signed on February 15, 2024, came into force for the island archipelago. As such, the US will now be able to install military personnel, weapons and other equipment on the island chain, which has been recognised as a UNESCO Natural Heritage Site since 1978 — in a country whose constitution expressly prohibits the establishment of foreign military bases. Of greatest concern to the islands’ residents is the resolution’s admission that implementing the project will require adapting or building additional facilities in local ports or airports. US war ships and submarines will also be able to dock at the islands’ ports. In fact, according to Radio Pichincha, Ecuadorian government officials are already on their way “to receive the first ships and crews from the US, scheduled to arrive in the coming days.” The ostensible purpose of all this military activity is to combat drug trafficking, illegal fishing and other illicit maritime activities in the region. These are, I believe, primarily pretexts for public consumption. The real goal, as I endeavour to explain later, is to combat China’s rising economic influence in Latin America as well as project and protect US power in the southern Pacific. Thanks to the agreements signed earlier this year by Washington and Quito, US warships, aircraft and crews will be exempt from the Galapagos’ entry fees and taxes. US military personnel and subcontractors will also be exempt from prosecution in Ecuador and will avail of other “privileges, exemptions and immunities” equivalent to those enjoyed by diplomatic personnel, including freedom of movement throughout Ecuadorian territory, unhindered by “inspections, licenses, other restrictions, customs fees, taxes, or any other charges applied.” Unsurprisingly, news of the US’ military occupation of the Galapagos islands has, so far as I can tell, been met with a wall of silence in the European and North American media, including by publications that tend to paint themselves as environmentally committed. But it is attracting some attention in the Latin American press. On Saturday (Dec 14), a scathing editorial in Mexico’s left-wing daily La Jornada warned that Ecuador’s US-born President Daniel Noboa is “demolishing Ecuadorian sovereignty” by handing control of the island chain to the US: The Noboa government’s decision to grant the US de facto control of the Galapagos is controversial not just because of the islands’ protected status but also because of Ecuador’s unique recent history. In 2009, when the lease on the US base at Manta came up for renewal, the Rafael Correa government held a referendum on whether to maintain or close the base. During its decade of operations (1999-2009), the Manta base had underperformed in the ostensible fight against drug trafficking. What’s more, as People’s Digest reports, abuses by the US military against the local population were also documented, such as the destruction of small fishermen’s boats and even sexual abuse, something that has been denounced in areas around US bases across the world, including Colombia, South Korea, the Philippines, and more.” At the time, Ecuador’s then-President, Rafael Correa (2007-17) quipped that the only way he would agree to renew the agreement authorising US foreign troops in Manta would be if the US allowed an Ecuadorian military base in Miami. In the end, an overwhelming majority of Ecuadorians voted in favour of closing the base, and within months all US military personnel had left the country.

Supreme Court Agrees To Hear TikTok Appeal - The U.S. Supreme Court on Dec. 18 agreed to hear TikTok’s case challenging a law requiring its China-based parent company to divest of the app by Jan. 19, 2025. The court will hear oral arguments on Jan. 10, 2025. TikTok had challenged the divestment law as unconstitutional under the First Amendment, and a three-judge panel in federal court had upheld the law earlier this month. TikTok then appealed to the high court asking for a pause of the Jan. 19 deadline and asking it to treat its petition as one for review. The Supreme Court wrote on Dec. 18 that it will hear arguments in the case before deciding whether to pause the deadline. When President Joe Biden signed the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act (PAFACA) into law, it started a 270-day countdown for ByteDance to divest of TikTok or else stop operating the app in the United States. The law targets apps owned or controlled by foreign adversaries, in this case, the Chinese communist regime. The law also allows the president to issue a one-time extension of a maximum of 90 days. President-elect Donald Trump has suggested he can facilitate a sale of TikTok, which would prevent what TikTok calls a “ban.” TikTok is arguing the deadline should be paused so the new administration can make the call.

NASA Delays Return Of Stranded Astronauts Until March - Two astronauts who have been stranded in space for months won’t be able to return to earth until March, NASA said on Dec. 17 as it announced the latest in a string of delays sparked by problems with their Boeing-designed Starliner spacecraft. NASA said it needed more time to complete the processing of SpaceX’s Dragon spacecraft, which is scheduled to arrive at the space agency’s processing facility in Florida in early January. Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams were initially expected to return within a week after traveling to the International Space Station (ISS) on NASA’s Boeing Crew Flight Test mission in June. Their mission was later extended after NASA decided to return the spacecraft empty in September after the pilots identified helium leaks and issues with the Starliner’s reaction control thrusters on June 6.NASA initially planned to launch the Crew-10 mission in February 2025, with Wilmore and Williams returning home by the end of that month alongside two other astronauts who arrived at the ISS on Sept. 29 aboard the SpaceX Dragon capsule.The pair now face another delay, as NASA announced on Tuesday that Crew-10 will not launch until March 2025. By the time they return next year, they will have spent more than nine months in space.“Fabrication, assembly, testing, and final integration of a new spacecraft is a painstaking endeavor that requires great attention to detail,” Steve Stich, manager of NASA’s Commercial Crew Program, said in a statement. “We appreciate the hard work by the SpaceX team to expand the Dragon fleet in support of our missions and the flexibility of the station program and expedition crews as we work together to complete the new capsule’s readiness for flight.”NASA stated that it had considered using another SpaceX spacecraft but ultimately decided to wait until the Dragon spacecraft was ready and launch the Crew-10 mission in late March.

Trump tariff plan threatens to drive up gas prices - President-elect Trump’s proposed tariffs on Mexico and Canada are expected to raise prices at the pump. Trump said late last month that on his first day in office, he would place 25 percent tariffs on all Canadian and Mexican goods. The two countries are the leading sources of U.S. oil imports — and if he implements the tariffs, analysts say the action could result in higher gasoline prices. Andrew Lipow, president of consulting firm Lipow Oil Associates, said a 25 percent tariff amounts to a surcharge of about 40 cents per gallon. “The prices at the pump are going to go up. Whether we like it or not, the East Coast is an import market and they would have to import oil at a higher price,” Lipow told The Hill.Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at the Oil Price Information Service, had a similar projection. He told The Hill a 25 percent tariff would raise prices — at least in the short term. “There will be a difficulty in adjusting to a Canadian tariff of 25 percent,” he said. “It might produce a temporary but notable price shock.”Even Trump himself has said that overall he “can’t guarantee” the import taxes won’t raise prices. The proposed tariffs set up a potential conundrum for Trump and the Republican Party, marking an issue where Trump’s promises to put “America first” go head-to-head with his promises to bring down consumer prices — including the price of fuel. Canada and Mexico are the top places where U.S. oil imports come from, with more than half of the nation’s oil imports coming from Canada and another 10 percent coming from Mexico as of 2022. While Trump has pledged to increase domestic oil production, Lipow said any increases in drilling that occur would not make up for higher prices on Canadian oil.He argued that an artificial price increase would cause U.S. producers to raise their own prices to match it. “If prices go up, they’ll just raise their prices,” he said. “There’s only so much increase in production that they can do.”

Trump's Border Czar Anticipates 'Collateral Arrests' In Mass Deportation Plan -President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming border czar said that the forthcoming administration’s deportation efforts will lead to “collateral arrests.” Tom Homan, former acting director of the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), said in a new interview that illegal immigrants who are not accused or charged with other crimes should expect to be detained and deported. “In sanctuary cities, expect a lot of collateral arrests,” Homan told the Washington Examiner in an article published on Dec. 18. “I mean, not priority criminal arrests. We can’t get the bad guy in jail. That means we have to go into the communities and find them, and there may be others. We expect a lot of collateral arrests.” Collateral arrests refer to individuals who are detained during sweeps made by ICE officials, regardless of whether they were the target of the agency’s specific enforcement action. In sanctuary jurisdictions, local jails are often prevented from handing over criminal illegal immigrants to ICE, forcing the immigration agency to find those criminals in the community at large, post-release. Homan and other Trump officials have stated that they will prioritize targeting illegal immigrants who have committed crimes or are deemed a threat to U.S. national security. They have also pledged to deport anyone residing in the country illegally, although Trump has indicated he would consider allowing so-called Dreamers—illegal immigrants who have been in the United States since childhood—to remain under certain conditions. The deportations and immigration enforcement measures will start on the first day of Trump’s administration, Jan. 20, 2025, Homan said. Officials are already making plans on how to expand deportations. “We’re starting across the country on the same day” that Trump is sworn in, Homan told the outlet. About 24 ICE offices ”cover two or three states“ and ”every field office will be given the direction that they are to begin looking for, arresting, detaining, removing those in the United States that have been arrested for a crime,” he said. Homan also said he wants to obtain U.S. military aircraft to help with the effort because they would serve “as a force multiplier” in the deportation effort.

NJ Gov. Phil Murphy asks Joe Biden for more federal resources on drone sightings - New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy (D) asked President Biden for more federal resources to respond to the mysterious drone sightings in the Garden State over the past few weeks. “While I am sincerely grateful for your administration’s leadership in addressing this concerning issue, it has become apparent that more resources are needed to fully understand what is behind this activity,” Murphy wrote in a Thursday letter to the president. “New Jersey residents deserve more concrete information about these UAS sightings and what is causing them,” he wrote in the letter, using an acronym for unmanned aircraft systems. “The continued reporting of UAS activity has raised more questions than answers and prompted an outcropping of conspiracy theories on social media and other online platforms.” Murphy requested additional assistance from the federal government, with current laws restricting what local and state law officials can do about the large drones spotted flying above New Jersey’s skies. Apart from New Jersey, sightings of drones have been reported in nearby New York and Maryland. Senators representing New Jersey and New York have issued a letter directed to the Federal Aviation Administration, the Department of Homeland Security and the FBI, asking for a briefing on the matter that has alarmed residents in their states. White House national security spokesperson John Kirby said there’s no evidence of public safety or national security threats, but he added the federal government is working to identify what those drones are. “We haven’t seen any indication thus far that there’s a public safety risk,” Kirby said Thursday, comments he received criticism for.The Defense Department said there has been no evidence that those drones are “the work of an adversary” or because of the work of a foreign entity.Murphy said the FBI is working with state officials to discover the source of the unidentified drones. Sen. Andy Kim (D-N.J.) did a patrol Thursday night, during which he witnessed “multiple unexplained and unidentified” drones.Apart from sending the letter to Biden, Murphy also directed another Thursday letter, this one to congressional leaders, asking them to “empower state and local law enforcement entities with the ability to use advanced detection and mitigation technology.”Murphy also said in the letter that Sens. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) and Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) “have bipartisan legislation — ‘Safeguarding the Homeland from the Threats Posed by Unmanned Aircraft Systems Act of 2023’ — that would help accomplish these goals.”

Drone sightings a combination of ‘lawful’ drones, other aircrafts and stars, officials say - Recent drone sightings include a combination of “lawful” drones, other aircrafts and stars, federal government officials said in a statement on Monday. In looking into “the technical data and tips from concerned citizens, we assess that the sightings to date include a combination of lawful commercial drones, hobbyist drones, and law enforcement drones, as well as manned fixed-wing aircraft, helicopters, and stars mistakenly reported as drones,” read a joint statement from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the FBI, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), and the Department of Defense (DOD). The FBI received more than 5,000 reported drone sightings in recent weeks, with approximately 100 leads generated, and the federal government was supporting local officials in investigating the reports, the statement also said. “Consistent with each of our unique missions and authorities, we are quickly working to prioritize and follow these leads. We have sent advanced detection technology to the region. And we have sent trained visual observers,” the statement continues. Drone sightings have rattled multiple Northeastern states, most notably New Jersey, over the last month. The White House said Monday that drones are not a national security or public risk, with White House national security communications adviser John Kirby’s words to reporters Monday about what the White House says the drone sightings are being similar to the Monday statement from the agencies and departments.“We recognize the concern among many communities,” the agencies and departments said in their joint statement. “We continue to support state and local authorities with advanced detection technology and support of law enforcement. We urge Congress to enact counter-[unmanned aircraft systems] legislation when it reconvenes that would extend and expand existing counter-drone authorities to identify and mitigate any threat that may emerge.” On Monday, President-elect Trump said the Biden administration is aware of what is happening when it comes to the drone sightings, with the president-elect implying that the drones are not from a hostile adversary.“The government knows what is happening. Look, our military knows where they took off from, if it’s a garage they can go right into that garage. They know where it came from and where it went,” Trump said at Mar-a-Lago.“And for some reason, they don’t want to comment. I think they’d be better off saying what it is,” he continued. “Our military knows, and our president knows, and for some reason, they want to keep people in suspense.”

High Altitude Unmanned Balloon Passes Near DC, New Jersey --A high-altitude unmanned balloon once operated by Loon, formerly an Alphabet subsidiary and now registered to Raven Aerostar as "N254TH," traveled just north of the Baltimore-Washington, DC, airspace at 64,500 feet, moving east at 34 mph towards New Jersey. Data from FlightAware indicates that N254TH launched from Dangel Airport in South Dakota on Monday and has since traversed the eastern half of the US, now making its way into Delaware and soon New Jersey. Balloon website Stratocat provided more details about the balloon under Loon's prior ownership: Project Loon was an initiative to establish a network of high altitude unmanned balloons to provide Internet connectivity in underserved parts of the world or during disaster recovery efforts. The project started in 2011 and became public in 2013 as part of Google's research and development of new technologies carried out through X Development LLC.Loon, formerly an Alphabet subsidiary, was shuttered in 2021—the project aimed to provide high-speed internet to remote parts of the world. However, Elon Musk's Starlink has largely taken over that role with its low Earth orbit satellites.

Finger-pointing begins after permitting talks collapse - The blame game started over the weekend and intensified Monday after bipartisan talks on broad permitting legislation collapsed. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Chair Joe Manchin (I-W.Va.) and Environment and Public Works Chair Tom Carper (D-Del.) both blamed House Republican leadership. Manchin has for years been leading the charge on legislation to bolster the grid and make it easier to approve all kinds of projects.“By taking permitting off the table for this Congress, Speaker Johnson and House Republican Leadership have done a disservice to the incoming Trump Administration, which has been focused on strengthening our energy security and will now be forced to operate with their hands tied behind their backs when trying to issue permits for all of the types of energy and infrastructure projects our country needs,” Manchin said.Manchin and ENR ranking member John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) secured committee passage earlier this year on their “Energy Permitting Reform Act” S. 4753. But House Republicans also wanted changes to the National Environmental Policy Act.Carper, House Natural Resources Chair Bruce Westerman (R-Ark.) and others spent the past several days trying to work out their differences on NEPA. During one meeting, Carper grew visibly angry and stormed out.“Senate Democrats had several opportunities during both this Congress and the previous one to achieve meaningful permitting reform and failed,” Johnson said in a statement Monday night.“If they were truly committed to reaching an agreement, negotiations would have started months ago — not after they lost the election. “Republicans say they want to address permitting issues along party lines through budget reconciliation. But it’s unclear how much they’ll be able to do under the arcane rules that govern the process. That’s why Senate Democrats saw the latest push as a unique opportunity.“It’s just a shame that politics does this — this game of politics up here,” said a despondent Manchin. The West Virginia independent, who caucuses with Democrats, said he discussed permitting with President-elect Donald Trump during the Army-Navy football game over the weekend, according to reporting by HuffPost. “He had it right in his hands, they could grab it, and [Speaker] Johnson wouldn’t go with it,” he said. “It’s a shame.”

Trump Threatens Tariffs If EU Doesn't Buy More USA Oil and Gas - President-elect Donald Trump warned the European Union that its exports will get hit with US tariffs if its member states don’t buy more American oil and gas. “I told the European Union that they must make up their tremendous deficit with the United States by the large scale purchase of our oil and gas. Otherwise, it is TARIFFS all the way!!!,” he said on Truth Social. The US is the world’s largest producer of crude oil and the biggest exporter of liquefied natural gas. LNG buyers — including the EU and Vietnam — have already talked about purchasing more fuel from the US, in part to deter the threat of tariffs. The euro traded 0.3% stronger at $1.0398 Friday in a sign investors believe the bloc will be able to meet his demands and avoid punitive measures. The US goods and services trade deficit with the EU was $131.3 billion in 2022, according to the office of the US Trade Representative, and the EU has been bracing for a trade offensive ever since Trump’s election victory last month. The bloc was largely caught off-guard in 2017 when Trump, citing national security concerns in his previous term as president, levied tariffs on European steel and aluminum. Since then, the EU has reinvented its trade doctrine and expanded its toolbox, giving it a range of options to counter coercive practices. “We are well-prepared for the possibility that things will become different with a new US administration,” German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said after a Group of Seven meeting in Italy in late November. “If the new US administration pursues an ‘America first’ policy in the sectors of climate or trade, then our response will be ‘Europe united.’” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen floated the idea last month that imports from the US could replace the bloc’s consumption of Russian LNG. LNG “is one of the topics that we touched upon,” von der Leyen said after a phone call with Trump. “We still get a whole lot of LNG via Russia, from Russia. And why not replace it with American LNG, which is cheaper, and brings down our energy prices.” The US is already Europe’s biggest provider of LNG, but imports from Russia remain solidly in the second spot. EU officials are looking for ways to curb Moscow’s role as the war in Ukraine continues, even while Russian pipeline gas and LNG are largely outside of the scope of sanctions. The bloc will explore potential measures when they discuss a new sanctions package next month but stringent restrictions remain difficult, according to a person familiar with the matter, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. In the short-term, the US doesn’t have much more capacity to increase shipments. And since LNG is sold through long-term contracts, adding shipments to Europe would require original buyers of the gas to agree to divert its shipments to Europe — but that wouldn’t boost the amount being exported by the US. Over the longer term, more capacity will come on line with dozens of projects in the US currently in the works. The US has already assumed a critically important role as an oil supplier to Europe, especially in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Shipments are now holding steadily up around the 2 million-barrels a day mark, exceeding flows from countries including Saudi Arabia, west Africa and elsewhere. US barrels have also become increasingly important in setting Dated Brent, the world’s key price for determining physical market transactions. Those flows have largely been a function of free-market trading and it’s hard to know what difference any kind of government-level intervention could make to them. Asia also competes for the barrels. Refineries are optimized to make the right fuels from the right crudes. But the EU has still prepared for the possibility that it will end up in a trade war with Washington. The EU’s new anti-coercion instrument strengthens trade defenses and enables the commission, the bloc’s executive arm, to impose tariffs or other punitive measures in response to such politically motivated restrictions. The EU also adopted a so-called foreign subsidies regulation, which allows the commission to prevent foreign companies that receive unfair state handouts from participating in public tenders or merger-and-acquisition deals in the bloc, among other measures. Trump has multiple grievances against the EU and has criticized Europe for not spending enough on defense and for the US-EU trade deficit. He once referred to Brussels, the seat of the EU institutions, as a hellhole, and more recently he said he’d once told a NATO member that he’d let Russia do “whatever the hell they want” to it if it didn’t hit defense spending targets. Trump has threatened tariffs against countries from China to Canada, and is particularly focused on nations that have trade deficits with the US. Europe is already the top destination for American LNG, with more than half of the deliveries going to the continent last year.

Industrial polluters send Trump a deregulatory wish list - More than a hundred industrial trade groups and chambers of commerce are urging President-elect Donald Trump to weaken or eliminate numerous Biden administration regulations on energy, air pollution, recycling, worker heat protections, consumer safeguards and corporate financing, claiming that the rules are “strangling” the nation’s economy. In a 21-page letter addressed to Trump and his presumptive Cabinet, the groups requested changes to dozens of “burdensome regulations that are stifling investment, making us less competitive in the world, limiting innovation and threatening the very jobs we are all working to create right here in America.” Among other actions, the Dec. 5 letter urges Trump to resume exports of liquefied natural gas, support legislation boosting the use of nuclear energy, repeal new emission standards for coal- and gas-fired power plants, relax newly proposed standards for soot and PFAS “forever” chemicals, pause implementation of worker heat standards, limit the Food and Drug Administration’s food traceability requirements and fight efforts to impose “right-to-repair” rules, which provide consumers with tools and instructions to fix their damaged electronics instead of throwing them away. The document has raised alarm among many environmental and consumer safety advocates, although legal experts say such changes would probably see many legal and procedural challenges. “This is a wish list for unchecked exposure to toxic chemicals, more air pollution, dirty drinking water, contaminated food, unsafe workplaces and fewer consumer protections,” said David Michaels, a professor of Environmental and Occupational Health at George Washington University. “If these corporate demands are met, we will see higher rates of cancer and heart disease in adults and asthma attacks in children, more outbreaks of food borne illnesses, workers sickened or dying from heat, and extreme weather events that will bring tremendous loss of life and property.” Ken Alex, director at the Center for Law, Energy and Environment at UC Berkeley, said the letter closely mirrors the spirit and text of Project 2025, especially the 900-page document’s pro-fossil fuel agenda. The signatory trade groups include powerful industry associations such as the American Chemistry Council and the American Forest and Paper Assn., as well as smaller ones such as the Pool and Hot Tub Alliance and National Lime Assn. “We look forward to working with the Trump administration and the new Congress to drive pro-growth, science-based policies that support growing domestic chemical production right here at home and help make America the world’s manufacturing superpower,” said Scott Openshaw, senior director of advocacy communications for the American Chemistry Council. Notably, none of the large automotive groups are included as signatories — although there is representation by the Motorcycle Industry Council, the RV Industry Assn. and the Recreational Off-Highway Vehicle Assn. “That’s super interesting because they have a whole bunch of proposals to preclude limitations to internal combustion engines and a lot of things about cable pipe emissions,” said Alex, suggesting those must instead be from the oil companies. And automakers “at least as I understand it are interested in moving to electric vehicles, because that’s where they’re seeing the industry heading. So the absence of the automakers here is pretty significant, in my view.” In addition, as researchers and policy experts had anticipated soon after the election, the groups requested that the new Trump administration keep President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act in place. While manufacturers initially opposed the tax and price control provisions of the law, they wrote, “the energy tax incentives in the law have spurred investments in new technologies that will power manufacturing growth for decades.... A wholesale repeal of the credits will have a disastrous implication for these investments and the jobs that come with them.” Alex said that as brazen as the letter is in terms of its depth and breadth of deregulatory “asks,” it is “fair in many contexts to recognize that some regulations and permitting requirements are onerous and difficult. There needs to be some sensitivity to that, and just because it comes from the American Chemistry Council doesn’t mean that there’s not some validity to some of those claims.” However, he said, the letter really “underscores the importance and need for rigorous agency evaluation for having staff that have expertise and scientific background.... I fear that some of these proposals are going to be considered high priority to be implemented without full consideration.”

US DOE Releases LNG Gas Export Study: Facilities Already Approved Will Meet Global Demand For Decades; Unfettered Exports Would Increase Domestic Natural Gas Prices; Electricity Prices; Costs To Manufacturers – On December 17, the U.S. Department of Energy released an updated study of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports required by Congress under the federal Natural Gas Act to evaluate the public interest of proposed exports to countries with which the United States does not have a Free Trade Agreement. The study will have a 60-day comment period that will begin once published in the Federal Register. The public is encouraged to submit comments, which will inform how DOE may apply the study’s findings to its public interest analysis of export applications going forward.In addition to the study, U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer M. Granholm released a Secretarial Statement outlining departmental leadership’s perspective on the final study. Here are some key findings from the Secretary’s statement--

• -- Already Approved Facilities Will Meet Demand For Decades: LNG gas export facilities already approved “will be more than sufficient to meet global demand for U.S. LNG for decades to come.” “​​U.S. LNG exports have already tripled over the past five years, will double again by 2030, and could double yet again under existing authorizations.”
• -- Energy Consumers, Manufacturers Will Face Higher Energy Costs: "Unfettered exports of LNG would increase wholesale domestic natural gas prices by over 30%;" increases in electricity prices because natural gas dominates generation. [In Pennsylvania it accounts for 59% of generation capacity. Read more here.]; and increased costs for manufacturers that use natural gas as feedstock.
• -- LNG Gas Export Facilities Burden Already Polluted Communities: LNG facilities tend to be concentrated in communities that are being asked to shoulder the additional burden of pollution from increased natural gas production and liquefaction. This comes on top of existing environmental burdens from refining, petrochemical, and other industries already concentrated near these communities. [The proposal to build an LNG export facility in Chester, Delaware County is just one example. Read more here.]
• -- Climate Impact Merits Close, Rigorous Analysis: While some tout LNG as a means to reduce the use of coal overseas (and to date that has been the case with some importing countries), the study put forward today shows a world in which additional U.S. LNG exports displace more renewables than coal globally.
• -- We Need To Know Where Those Exports Are Headed: “Based on current global demand for LNG, the People’s Republic of China is already the world’s largest importer. Looking ahead, China's LNG exports are expected to nearly double between now and 2030, and China's LNG imports are expected to be the highest of any country through 2050.

PRC entities have already signed several contracts with operating or proposed U.S. LNG projects. Future authorization decisions of what is in the “public interest” need not be made solely on a binary – yes or no – basis but could be undertaken using a broader framework of requirements for all authorizations.[Pennsylvania shale gas producers have already said they have a “duty” to supply China-- our economic and military competitor-- with natural gas to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Read more here.]“Regardless of what happens in each cycle of elections, the effect of increased energy prices for domestic consumers combined with the negative impacts to local communities and the climate will continue to grow as exports increase.”“In the decade to come, we will see strong and mounting pressure within our democratic system to ensure that the United States uses its market position in a way that truly advances our national interest and energy security, which must include the needs of American workers, American families, and our responsibility to address the climate crisis. “In our view, the question is not whether U.S. export policy will be forced to respond to those interests, but when and what that response is.”

Industry Confronts DOE LNG Study, Braces for Further Project Hurdles Even as Trump’s Second Term Nears A massive study released by the federal government on Tuesday that suggested further increasing U.S. LNG exports is unsustainable was widely dismissed by the industry as a political stunt. But it’s still likely to complicate President-elect Trump’s plans to fast-track export project approvals. Graph showing commercially advanced U.S. LNG projects impacted by the DOE's permit review. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) released more than 600 pages of material after nearly a year of studying whether more exports are in the public interest. The study is final, but it is to be opened to a 60-day public comment period that would help inform how DOE applies the findings to its public interest analysis of export applications going forward.The Biden administration paused the approval of new export projects in January while it conducted the study. Trump has said he plans to lift the pause on his first day in office and fast-track some projects as part of a broader agenda to solid

Analysts: DOE’s LNG Study Will Result in Few Policy Changes - - Scores of energy industry representatives criticized the Department of Energy’sfindings on the LNG sector, released on Dec. 17, even though the report’s recommendations are unlikely to become policy.The report—a government-funded scientific study—is likely to come up in the courtroom even after the Donald Trump administration takes power and presumably disregards the DOE’s proposals, according to Arbo, a firm that tracks government issues for the energy industry.The Dec. 17 “release of DOE's long-anticipated export study officially ends the pause but potentially complicates the path forward,” Arbo wrote in a newsletter.The DOE report forecasted unrestricted LNG exports could increase domestic natural gas prices by 30%. The increased use of LNG could also increase global greenhouse gas emissions by delaying the transition from a hydrocarbon-based energy infrastructure to one based on solar and wind. A strong supply of LNG on the global market could also potentially help America’s opponents, especially China, the report said.Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm's “emphasis on these findings, along with environmental justice concerns and public interest considerations, sets up potential hurdles for the incoming administration,” Arbo wrote.The study now has a 60-day comment period, which extends past the date when Trump moves into the White House. At that time, the DOE is expected to shift its LNG analysis to a more economically focused approach.However, the expected shift from the Trump administration could result in legal challenges. Future plaintiffs against LNG expansion could potentially cite the study when making a case against the government, Arbo said.Recent LNG projects—even already permitted facilities—are facing legal action. In August, a federal appeals court vacated the federal permits for two LNG facilities located in South Texas —Texas LNG and Rio Grande LNG. In its reasoning, the court cited environmental justice arguments that the DOE included in the just-released report. Arbo also noted that the recent U.S. Supreme Court Chevron decision will further complicate legal matters because the ruling took away some of the executive branch’s power to create regulations, meaning rules implemented under the Trump administration will be under greater legal scrutiny than prior administrations. There is some optimism for the LNG industry, however. Under the Natural Gas Act, the DOE retains “considerable discretion” to determine the public interest for LNG permit authorizations, Arbo said. The flexibility could mean the DOE may have fewer problems changing its current policies. The White House implemented the LNG permitting pause in February. After a year, the concrete effects of the move appear to be minimal against the larger backdrop of expanding LNG export capacity, said Jack Weixel, senior director at East Daley Analytics. According to the DOE, five LNG projects are currently waiting for permits: Calcasieu Pass 2 (3.96 Bcf/d); Commonwealth (1.21 Bcf/d); Port Arthur Phase II (1.91 Bcf/d); Lake Charles (2.33 Bcf/d); and Magnolia LNG (1.23 Bcf/d). “The fact of the matter is that through the new administration’s first and only remaining term, the DOE pause only really ever impacted Venture Global’s CP2 project and Kimmeridge-backed Commonwealth LNG,” Weixel told Hart Energy. Combined, the two facilities had a capacity of 3.9 Bcf/d of incremental demand. The DOE had already permitted about 15 Bcf/d of capacity for development, Weixel said. With or without the pause, the U.S. export capacity for LNG is expected to double between now and 2028, from about 14 Bcf/d to more than 28 Bcf/d. One project, Venture Global’s Plaquemines LNG, began production on Dec. 13. Cheniere Energy’s Corpus Christi LNG expansion is expected to start production within the next few weeks. Weixel also noted the DOE is partially correct in that domestic natural gas prices will rise, but such an increase was expected, regardless of whether any new export capacity is approved. Producers likely plan to increase supply once LNG demand kicks in. Natural gas prices have remained low over the past two years thanks to abundant supplies, especially out of the Permian Basin, where natural gas has been priced below $0 for much of 2024. Many of the LNG facilities are also adjacent to the Haynesville Shale, located in Texas and Louisiana. “The point is that there is plenty of natural gas to produce into another 3.9 Bcf/d of feedgas demand,” Weixel said. “It’s just a matter of putting in the infrastructure to move that gas to the Gulf Coast.”

Trump’s Energy Pick, Chris Wright, Argues Fossil Fuels Are Virtuous - The New York Times - Chris Wright, the fracking magnate and likely next U.S. energy secretary, makes a moral case for fossil fuels. His position, laid out in speeches and podcasts, is that the world’s poorest people need oil, gas and coal to realize the benefits of modern life that Americans and others in rich nations take for granted. Only fossil fuels, he says, can bring prosperity to millions who still burn wood, dung or charcoal for basic needs like cooking food and heating homes.“It’s just, I think, naïve or evil, or some combination of the two, to believe they should never have washing machines, they should never have access to electricity, they should never have modern medicine,” Mr. Wright said on the “Mission Zero” podcast last year. “We don’t want that to happen. And we simply don’t have meaningful substitutes for oil, gas and coal today.”The argument offered by Mr. Wright, who has been chosen by President-elect Donald J. Trump to run the Energy Department, ignores the fact that wind, solar and other renewable energy are cleaner and increasingly cheaper than fossil fuels. The International Energy Agency says clean energy is coming online globally at an “unprecedented rate” and will play a significant role in the future. In some places, renewable energy has been able todisplace fossil fuels.Mr. Wright also skates past the climate impacts from burning more fossil fuels. Climate change is already having a disproportionate impact on poor nations, which are less able than rich countries to handle the rising seas, extreme weather, drought and other consequences of global warming.“It’s pretty self-serving by the fossil fuel industry to assume the future is going to look exactly like the past,” said Joseph Curtin, a managing director on the power and climate team at the Rockefeller Foundation, which is working on expanding clean energy access in poor countries.

Trump declares intent to privatize US Postal Service - President-elect Donald Trump intends to privatize the United States Postal Service, the Washington Post reported in an article over the weekend. According to the Post, Trump has had several discussions in recent weeks on privatizing USPS. Trump spoke with Howard Lutnick, his pick for commerce secretary and the co-chair of his presidential transition team at Mar-a-Lago on the issue. He also held a meeting of transition officials to solicit ideas on privatizing the USPS last month. Speaking on condition of anonymity, sources told the newpspaer that Trump said the government should not subsidize the Postal Service when he was informed of its financial losses this year. The move to hive out USPS, which currently operates as an independent government agency, would represent a massive assault on the working class. Roughly 500,000 currently work at USPS, whose existence is prescribed by the US Constitution and which is mandated to provide universal services to all Americans, regardless of how remote their location. The working class must mobilize to oppose this, with a mass movement to save the post office as part of a broader defense of jobs which are being slashed in every industry. This can only be organized independently of the trade union bureaucrats, who are already actively helping to carry out a restructuring program designed to pave the way to privatize USPS. This must also be a global campaign. Significantly, the Post ran the story as the government in Canada moved to shut down a month-long strike by 50,000 Canada Post workers. Other corporate attacks are being carried out against postal workers in Britain and Germany, where the post offices are already privatized, and around the world. The key strategic question is the building of the International Workers Alliance of Rank-and-File Committees, which already has active postal worker committees in the US, Canada, Britain, Germany and Australia. The global power of the working class must be leveraged independently of all big business parties, connecting the fight to defend postal services with a rebellion to transfer power from pro-corporate union bureaucrats to workers as part of a fight against capitalist inequality. Whatever illusions exist in Trump among workers, to whom opposition to the status quo defaulted in the election thanks to the open indifference of the Democrats, are quickly being shattered. Trump, who has declared he plans to run as a dictator from “day one,” is planning massive, historic attacks on the working class. The plan to privatize USPS also exposes Trump’s right-wing populist statements only a few days before, where he attempted to blame automation in US ports on “foreign” companies. This “America First” hot air, which was endorsed by officials from the Teamsters and the International Longshoremen’s Association, is aimed at deflecting blame from oligarchs in the US, including Trump himself and his major ally Elon Musk for job cuts.

House passes bill adding judicial seats after Joe Biden veto threat - The House approved a bill Thursday that would create dozens of additional judicial seats over the next several years, sending it to President Biden’s desk after his administration levied a veto threat. The measure — titled the Judicial Understaffing Delays Getting Emergencies Solved (JUDGES) Act — cleared the chamber in a 236-173 vote, after the Senate unanimously passed the bill in August. The legislation, which has bipartisan sponsorship, would establish 66 federal court seats over the next decade in an effort to decrease caseloads in jurisdictions with high volumes such as California and Texas. The legislation now heads to Biden, who earlier this week said he would veto the bill should it land on his desk. In a statement of administrative policy, the White House questioned the motivation behind the measure. “The bill would create new judgeships in states where Senators have sought to hold open existing judicial vacancies,” the statement reads. “Those efforts to hold open vacancies suggest that concerns about judicial economy and caseload are not the true motivating force behind passage of this bill now.” The administration also accused Congress of not completely exploring “how the work of senior status judges and magistrate judges affects the need for new judgeships,” and questioned the timing of House GOP leadership scheduling a vote. “Further, the Senate passed this bill in August, but the House refused to take it up until after the election. Hastily adding judges with just a few weeks left in the 118th Congress would fail to resolve key questions in the legislation, especially regarding how the judges are allocated,” the White House said. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), for his part, lauded the legislation as a way to increase “impartial justice.” “We can’t overburden the courts and our judges with these excessive caseloads, and that’s what’s been happening,” he said at a press conference this week. “More judges means more Americans can access equal and impartial justice without waiting years to get it. I’m excited to see this bill pass.”

Generational change meets its limits with Connolly's win over AOC - Rep. Gerry Connolly’s triumph over Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for the top Democratic spot on the Oversight Committee illustrates the limits of the party’s demand for generational change, with a well-established centrist beating out a progressive standard-bearer. While the victory went beyond ideology, there were simmering fears among centrists about how elevating Ocasio-Cortez, an outspoken liberal who has gone viral for her moments on the panel before, would turn out. There was also a sense that it was Connolly’s turn, after he had previously run for the Oversight spot twice and served on the panel for 15 years, according to interviews with eight Democratic lawmakers. Connolly also used his strong relationships in the centrist New Democrat Coalition, considered the largest ideological bloc in the caucus, to build significant support, after Ocasio-Cortez surged early on. Incoming New Democrat Coalition Chair Brad Schneider (D-Ill.) made calls on behalf of Connolly after the group’s endorsement Friday, said a person granted anonymity to discuss the private outreach. Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi also phoned other lawmakers on his behalf — a factor other lawmakers said was significant, but not nearly as decisive as Connolly’s own relationships throughout the caucus. “The membership comes together and makes these decisions. Members make individual decisions,” said Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.). “I’ve seen leadership weigh in on races in the caucus and win some and lose some.” Connolly’s internal whip count of roughly 130 lawmakers that POLITICO reported Friday almost exactly mirrored the final whip count of 131 votes for him on Tuesday morning. Ocasio-Cortez’s allies had projected early confidence in the race and had hoped to capitalize on a post-election appetite for change in the caucus. But while other ranking members largely fell to or stepped aside for younger challengers, members still largely felt it wasn’t right to bypass 74-year-old Connolly for the 35-year-old progressive darling. And despite the calls for a shift in leadership and some concerns about Connolly’s recent cancer diagnosis, House Democrats aren’t totally willing to abandon their attachment to seniority. “I think that there are challenges in totally abandoning the seniority system here, because if seniority is not the rule, money becomes the rule,” said Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas), who’d been the first Democrat to call for President Joe Biden to drop his reelection bid earlier this year.

Biden abandons mass student debt cancellation plans amid GOP lawsuit - The Biden administration is officially withdrawing its sweeping proposals to cancel student debt for tens of millions of Americans, effectively closing the door on mass loan forgiveness in the waning days of Joe Biden’s presidency. The Education Department said in a notice Friday that it was rescinding two of its major pending proposals to cancel student debt, one of which was already preemptively blocked by a federal judge in a lawsuit brought by Republican attorneys general. The judge in that case, Matthew Schelp of the Eastern District of Missouri, a Trump appointee, had ordered the department to explain its plans for the rest of the Biden administration in court by Friday. In withdrawing the plans, the Education Department cited the “operational challenges” of implementing both rules and said the administration wants to use its remaining time to prioritize “helping at-risk borrowers return to repayment successfully.” Department officials also wrote that they maintained the legality of the plans, though the incoming Trump administration is likely to take a different view. POLITICO previously reported that Trump transition officials and allies have been exploring ways to quickly wind down Biden’s various student debt relief programs. The White House did not comment on the withdrawn proposals. The Education Department didn’t respond to a request for comment. The withdrawn proposals — which together contemplated some loan forgiveness for at least 38 million Americans — had been billed as Biden’s “Plan B” for wiping out large amounts of student debt after the Supreme Court in 2023 rejected his initial relief plan. In that 6-3 decision, conservative justices ruled that Biden could not use emergency powers tied to the Covid-19 pandemic to wipe out $10,000 or $20,000 of student debt for roughly 40 million borrowers. Biden vowed immediately after his loss at the Supreme Court to begin a rulemaking process to come up with alternative ways to cancel debt. The Education Department has since been working on those plans that are based on a long-standing provision of federal higher education law that says the Education secretary can waive, compromise, and settle debts. One of the proposals, released in April, would have forgiven the debt of roughly 30 million Americans who fit into certain categories, such as borrowers whose debt has ballooned because of interest, those who’ve carried debts for decades, and borrowers who missed out on existing relief programs.A second proposal, released in October, would have given the Education Department the power to discharge debts of borrowers it determined had experienced financial hardship, which it estimated could provide relief to some 8 million borrowers. The Biden administration has continued to announce batches of loan forgiveness to borrowers under changes it made to existing federal relief programs. On Friday, it announced another round of relief totaling $4.28 billion for 54,900 public service workers. Officials said that, in total, the administration has forgiven about $180 billion for nearly 5 million Americans.

Biden commutes sentence of judge jailed in Pennsylvania “kids for cash” scandal -- On December 12, lame-duck President Joe Biden directly pardoned 39 people and commuted the sentences of roughly 1500 more. Among those receiving an executive commutation is disgraced former judge Michael Conahan, who was serving time for his involvement in the “kids for cash” scandal that took place in Luzerne County, Pennsylvania in the early 2000s. Conahan and his co-conspirator, former judge Mark Ciavarella, collected $2.8 million in kickbacks between 2002-2008 by sending children to juvenile correctional facilities. In effect, Conahan and Ciavarella used their judgeships to sell children to for-profit jails. The scheme took root back in 2000, when one of Conahan’s friends, Robert Powell, expressed interest in opening a private detention center. Ciavarella, another crony, was then brought into the loop as the sentencing judge in juvenile court. Conahan next secured the help of a real estate developer, Robert Mericle, who would help funnel money back to himself and to Ciavarella. Ultimately, two juvenile prisons opened in the judges’ plot, the grossly misnamed PA Child Care and the Western PA Child Care. In order to make this scheme more lucrative, Conahan, who had control of the court’s budget, stopped financing publicly-owned county juvenile facilities, forcing them to close. This compelled the county to find alternative facilities to house kids caught up in the juvenile detention system. Using the influence of his office, Conahan, with the help of Mericle, induced Luzerne County to sign exclusive contracts ensuring that any children sent to juvenile detention centers would be specifically sent to the two centers owned and operated by Conahan’s friends, Powell and Mericle. Payment by the county to facilities was based on a per diem basis—the more kids, the more days they spent in prison, the more money the prisons raked in. The scheme was abetted by the fact that most defendants could not afford legal counsel and were unable to adequately defend themselves in court, according to findings of the Philadelphia-based Juvenile Law Center, which later brought a class-action lawsuit on behalf of the children and their families. The final piece of the puzzle came in the form of the kickback to the sentencing judges. Mericle, the primary recipient of the funding from the state and county, would give some of this money “back” to Conahan and Ciavarella as “finder’s fees.” The crooked judges, in sum, had a vested interest in sentencing as many kids as possible to the longest sentences they could. This authority they used with abandon, jailing literally thousands of children under “tough on crime” and “zero tolerance” sentencing policies—and in the process damaging and ruining young lives. Some of the judges’ punishments included: jailing a 13-year-old to a facility for several days after he failed to appear in court as a witness for a hearing on a fight involving other children; sending a 15-year-old to a camp for making fun of an assistant principal on the social media app MySpace; and sending a 17-year-old to a facility, plus five months of mandatory boot-camp, for stealing DVDs at a Walmart. One particularly tragic case involved 17 year-old Edward Kenzakoski, who was sentenced to several months of detention at one of the facilities for having a drug pipe in his possession. Kenzakoski was particularly distressed by his detention. He would later commit suicide as a result of the effects of his confinement. By 2009, suspicion had arisen regarding Conahan and Ciavarella. Conahan was charged with racketeering, fraud, and money laundering while Ciavarella was also charged with the same offenses along with tax violation, extortion, and bribery. In 2011, Conahan was sentenced to 17.5 years in federal prison and was ordered to pay $900,000 in restitution and fines, while Ciavarella was sentenced to 28 years in federal prison. That Conahan had his sentence commuted by Biden demonstrates the bankruptcy of his administration and the rottenness of the political establishment. Conahan and Ciavarella are registered Democrats and have close connections to state and local officials within the Pennsylvania Democratic Party—perhaps the state party most loyal to Biden, who was born in Scranton just north of Luzerne County. Families and survivors expressed outrage at Biden’s act. “I am shocked and I am hurt,” Sandy Fonzo, the mother of Edward Kenzakoski, told the Citizens’ Voice. “Conahan’s actions destroyed families, including mine, and my son’s death is a tragic reminder of the consequences of his abuse of power. This pardon feels like an injustice for all of us who still suffer. Right now I am processing and doing the best I can to cope with the pain that this has brought back.” Amanda Lorah was 14 when she was unjustly jailed. “It’s a big slap in the face for us once again,” Lorah told a local news station. “We had … time taken away from us. We had no one to talk to, but now we’re talking about the president of the United States to do this. What about all of us?”

Biden administration places profits over lives, fueling the spread of H5N1 bird fluThe H5N1 avian influenza (bird flu) virus is spreading to new locations across the United States, as the dairy industry continues to stifle public health measures that might impinge on its profits. Last week, reports emerged that the virus appeared in wastewater for the first time in Arizona and Hawaii, a highly significant development because unlike past locations with positive wastewater, these two locations do not have outbreaks in dairy cattle or poultry farms. Although scientists are still trying to determine how the virus gets into wastewater, one leading hypothesis is that the source is rainwater runoff from infected dairy and poultry farms. The absence of such farms nearby their detection in Arizona and Hawaii raises two concerning possibilities. The first is the possibility of human-to-human transmission, although there is no other clear evidence of this yet. The second is that the virus is frequently exchanged between farms and wild bird populations, meaning that the effects of outbreaks on farms travel far beyond their immediate vicinity. One hypothesis for the appearance of the virus in wastewater in Flagstaff, Arizona, is that infected backyard chickens are the source. On Hawaiʻi Island, the virus was detected in the municipal wastewater system of the city of Hilo. The closest known outbreak was on the island of Oahu in a backyard flock of rescued ducks, as well as in a randomly tested wild duck.In the meantime, the virus continues to run rampant in dairy cattle across California. According to the latest US Department of Agriculture statistics, in the past 30 days 339 dairy farms were newly infected, nearly all of them in California.The Biden administration’s response to the spread of bird flu among dairy cattle across the US over the past year amounts to nothing short of criminal negligence.A recent investigative piece published in Vanity Fair describes the intense campaign, spearheaded by Tom Vilsack, the head of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), to suppress efforts by local and state public health workers to detect and eliminate bird flu from cattle herds. Based on interviews with over 55 individuals—including veterinarians, the USDA, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and figures in the dairy industry—it presents a comprehensive and chilling account of how the response to this outbreak has continuously placed private profit over the health of the American and world population.According to the article, once the H5N1 virus appeared in cattle in Texas in April, it could have been immediately stopped by preventing movement of cattle among farms, especially to farms in other states. But rather than implement such an order, officials in Texas blithely dismissed the danger of the virus, despite the fact that it has a 15 percent fatality rate among cattle.The main culprit was Texas Agriculture commissioner Sid Miller. At the time, he was on the short list for Trump’s pick to lead the USDA. Clearly auditioning for the position, he protected the industry’s interests, which as the piece points out, is the primary function of the USDA. Its role in protecting the food supply typically takes a back seat when profits are at stake, as clearly demonstrated by the history of the response to H5N1.The campaign of suppression began almost immediately, with the USDA overruling the White House’s Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy (OPPR). The USDA degraded rather than improved transparency and communication, canceling biweekly calls held between its veterinary service and state veterinarians. At least five veterinarians who have spoken out, or simply reacted to the H5N1 threat in a principled manner, have lost their jobs. One veterinarian working in the private sector was told she was a “risk to the company’s shareholders.” Another veterinarian was fired simply for speaking out on behalf of farmworkers. A third veterinarian was fired for her refusal to fraudulently certify a sick herd as healthy.Vilsack, the man overseeing the response to this outbreak as head of the USDA, is intimately connected to the meat and dairy industries and has directly profited from these connections throughout his political career. After serving as the governor of Iowa, a major agricultural state, from 1999-2007, he then headed the USDA under Obama, before becoming president and CEO of the US Dairy Export Council during Trump’s first term. It is expected that he will return to this position after Trump again takes office.

Nancy Pelosi Profited As Luxury Napa Resort Won COVID-19 Bailout --The Auberge du Soleil, a five-star hillside hotel and spa with a panoramic view overlooking the vineyards of Napa Valley, appears to be first-rate in all ways but one. While the glamorous resort, an hour’s drive from San Francisco, fills rooms that routinely go for $2,000 a night with A-list celebrities and tech titans, financial records suggest it did not provide much of a return to at least two of its investors – Rep. Nancy Pelosi and her husband, Paul. That changed when it received millions in congressionally authorized COVID-19 relief in 2020 and 2021.The Auberge du Soleil investment, held for decades by Paul Pelosi, has rarely turned a significant profit, according to Nancy’s financial disclosure forms. In some years, he has recorded a loss or a profit of between $50,000 to $100,000. But the year of the bailout money stands apart. In 2021, Pelosi’s ethics forms show that her family’s income from the resort surged to a range of $1 million to $5 million. The French Riviera-themed resort may not be most people’s idea of a struggling business in need of a government bailout, yet the Auberge du Soleil – which shuttered briefly at the outset of the pandemic before swiftly rebounding – received about $9 million from a series of special taxpayer-funded emergency relief programs.The previously unreported windfall is among several COVID bailouts that flowed to Pelosi-backed restaurants, hotels, and properties, including several Courtyard Marriott hotels.A RealClearInvestigations analysis found that Pelosi’s profits spiked from a variety of holdings that won significant government rescue funds – which amounted to $28 million, a total more than previously known. For their family’s stake in the Auberge du Soleil, the Pelosis received more income in 2021, when bailout funds channeled to the resort, than any other time over the last 10 years.Pelosi is hardly alone among lawmakers whose businesses reaped awards from pandemic-era financial programs designed for small businesses. Rep. Greg Pence, the brother of the former vice president, received $79,441. Rep. Dean Phillips, who briefly campaigned in the Democratic presidential primary, is an investor in a small event production company, Geniecast, that received two forgivable loans that totaled $373,185. Other members with investments in car dealerships and restaurant companies also received scrutiny over COVID rescue funds. Yet Pelosi’s personal stake in the unprecedented taxpayer gusher has never been fully explored. Pelosi, during her previous stint as leader of the House of Representatives, shepherded all federal COVID stimulus measures, which totaled about $5.5 trillion – one of the largest domestic spending efforts in U.S. history outside of wartime. “These Republicans seem to have an endless tolerance for other people's sadness,” said Pelosi at a press conference in December 2020, admonishing her opposition for delays in passing additional pandemic spending programs. The programs were touted as disaster measures designed to save the economy and help needy businesses and families. The exact amount of Pelosi’s profits from the Auberge Du Soleil is unclear. The hotel is a privately held company, and the lawmakers file ethics reports that show a range of income and assets rather than a precise amount. Her office did not respond to a request for comment.

Trump says there are ‘problems’ with vaccines, rejects mandates - President-elect Trump said he thinks there are “problems” with vaccines and again drew a false connection between vaccines and autism rates on Monday. “There are problems. We don’t do as well as a lot of other nations, and those nations use nothing,” Trump said during a wide-ranging press conference at Mar-a-Lago. During the press conference, Trump again hinted that vaccines are driving up autism rates and that his administration would investigate it. It’s a position Trump has flirted with for years, but it’s recently come to the forefront as the president-elect has allied with vaccine skeptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr. “If you look at autism, so 30 years ago we had I heard numbers like 1 in 200,000, 1 in 100,000. Now I’m hearing numbers like 1 in 100. So something’s wrong. There’s something wrong. And we’re going to find out about it,” Trump said. Autism diagnoses have been rising, but experts have attributed the increase to better awareness of symptoms in children and changing criteria to diagnose autism spectrum disorder (ASD) in kids. About 1 in 36 children now have a diagnosis of ASD, according to estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, compared to about 1 in 150 in 2000. Trump also signaled he was opposed to vaccine mandates, which have long been part of the country’s public health policy. “I don’t like mandates; I’m not a big mandate person,” Trump said when asked whether schools should mandate vaccines. Trump’s opposition to school mandates was a common theme on the campaign trail, though his aides said he was only referring to COVID-19 vaccine mandates. In separate comments, Trump also defended Kennedy, his pick to lead the Department of Health and Human Services. Kennedy is meeting with GOP senators this week on Capitol Hill as he seeks to shore up support for his nomination. “I think he’s going to be much less radical than you would think. I think he’s got a very open mind. Or I wouldn’t have put him there,” Trump said Senators are likely to question Kennedy on his policy stances, many of which run counter to traditional GOP orthodoxy. He has a long history of questioning vaccines and has also promoted the debunked idea that vaccines cause autism. But Trump also said he was a “big believer” in the polio vaccine and promised that “you’re not going to lose” it, noting that he “saw what happened with polio” and has “friends that were very much affected by that.”

Trump seeks to smooth over concerns over RFK Jr -President-elect Trump tried to downplay concerns about Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on Monday, telling reporters that his nominee for Health and Human Services secretary won’t be “radical.” “I think he’s going to be much less radical than you would think,” Trump said during a wide-ranging news conference at Mar-a-Lago. “He’s going to have an open mind, or I wouldn’t have put him there.” Trump’s comments came as Kennedy kicked off a week of meetings with GOP senators to shore up support for his nomination. Some GOP senators have expressed concerns over Kennedy’s history of vaccine skepticism and wanted to hear directly from the former Democrat about what he believes. Opposition to Kennedy centers mostly on his policy stances, many of which run counter to traditional GOP orthodoxy. He has a long history of questioning vaccines and has promoted the debunked idea that vaccines cause autism. Kennedy argues the rise of chronic diseases in America can be traced to ultraprocessed foods, environmental toxins and chemical additives. He wants to ban fluoridated water and increase access to raw milk. Kennedy has argued he is not anti-vaccine but thinks that childhood shots aren’t safe and that the government hasn’t done enough studies to prove otherwise. But at the same time, Trump on Monday seemed open to some of Kennedy’s most controversial views. During the press conference, Trump hinted that his administration would investigate the debunked link between vaccines and autism. It’s a position Trump has flirted with for years, but it’s recently come to the forefront as the president-elect has allied with Kennedy. “If you look at autism, so 30 years ago we had I heard numbers like 1 in 200,000, 1 in 100,000. Now I’m hearing numbers like 1 in 100. So something’s wrong. There’s something wrong. And we’re going to find out about it,” Trump said. Trump also sought to reassure the drug industry that Kennedy wouldn’t upset the market, despite his previous comments railing against the industry. Trump noted he told industry executives as much when they traveled to a dinner he hosted at Mar-a-Lago recently. First as an independent candidate for president and then as a surrogate for Trump, Kennedy has said federal health regulators are “sock puppets” held captive by industry special interests.

The ‘really sticky’ situation facing the public health establishment: RFK Jr. - There’s a dilemma facing the public health establishment: It sees Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s focus on root causes of chronic disease as long overdue — and key to reversing America’s place as the world’s least healthy wealthy country. But they fear Kennedy, who is making the case to senators this week that they should confirm him as President-elect Donald Trump’s health secretary, could also cause an explosion in infectious disease — the kind vaccines protect against. Nearly a dozen researchers and public health officials who spoke with POLITICO see in Kennedy a chance to improve Americans’ poor diet and exercise habits and reduce their exposure to harmful chemicals. But they also see a purveyor of dangerous misinformation about vaccinations who could do irreparable harm to the public’s health. They’re coming to different conclusions about whether they should seek to direct Kennedy’s energies or oppose him entirely. “This is a really, really sticky situation,” said Katelyn Jetelina, an epidemiologist who has focused on improving public trust in quality health information since the pandemic. “How do we push one part of public health forward without letting the other areas slip backwards? That’s going to be the question over the next four years.” Some public health experts are ready to work with Kennedy, especially on reframing health policy goals. “It’s a reframing that’s long been needed,” said Sandra Albrecht, an epidemiology professor at Columbia University, of Kennedy’s focus on the causes of disease, adding that public health officials “will need to work with the administration” despite Kennedy’s baggage. But others aren’t so sure. Jetelina said many of her colleagues are “very united” in their belief that “Kennedy can do more damage than good.” First, Kennedy needs to convince senators — some of whom are making similar calculations about the pros and cons — to confirm him as secretary of health and human services. Trump nominated him last month after promising to let Kennedy “go wild” on health in his administration. Kennedy boosted Trump’s campaign in August when he dropped his independent bid for the White House and endorsed Trump. When it comes to chronic disease, which Kennedy attributes to toxins in our environment and food, public health officials say he’s onto something. Heart conditions, cancer, diabetes, depression and other ailments that qualify as chronic are the leading causes of death and disability in the U.S. Americans’ life expectancy, 77.5 years, is the lowest among wealthy nations. Some chronic disease and public health researchers are quietly excited about parts of Kennedy’s agenda, such as scrutinizing the nutritional and environmental factors they suspect could contribute to the growth of everything from diabetes to depression. But they’re torn. Working with Kennedy could also give him credibility to cast doubt on lifesaving vaccines and public health expertise broadly. And they worry their hopes for his efforts on chronic disease are misplaced. Albrecht, for example, said she was skeptical of Kennedy’s ability to quickly make big changes across the food system, given entrenched support for the industry in Congress and Washington’s health bureaucracy. Others doubt Republicans would follow through on stronger regulations as Kennedy proposed. At the same time, public health leaders worry the erosion of trust in medical experts seen since Covid arrived may accelerate under Kennedy — who wrote a bestselling book painting the pandemic as a conspiracy to enrich pharmaceutical companies — and open new footholds for deadly infectious diseases. Where to focus time and energy — and how much to risk for reframing public health priorities — could be a central question among health experts looking to navigate four more years of Trump.

What Americans think of RFK Jr. and his health stances -(AP) — The kids seen by Dolores Mejia around suburban Phoenix have been growing heavier in recent years. Their parents, too, she says.Mejia, a 75-year-old retiree, says she’s also had her own weight struggles on the scale.That’s why Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s pledge to “Make America Healthy Again” as he campaigned alongside Donald Trump caught her attention. She liked the questions Kennedy raised about the role of processed foods in America’s obesity epidemic.“I’m a junk food person,” said Mejia, an ardent Trump supporter. “I started wondering where those extra pounds came from.”After hearing Kennedy out, she concluded: “We cannot trust the health organizations we’ve trusted for years to tell us that our foods are safe.” Republicans such as Mejia have embraced Kennedy, whose alliance with the president-elect could make the prominent environmentalist and vaccine skeptic the nation’s top health official next year. Republicans hold an overwhelmingly positive view of Kennedy, with most approving of Trump’s decision to put him in his administration, according to recent polling from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research and AP VoteCast, a survey of more than 120,000 voters in the 2024 presidential election.But Americans overall are less positive about Kennedy, and there isn’t broad support for some of his views, which include closer scrutiny of vaccines.If confirmed by the Senate, Kennedy will be charged with leading the Department of Health and Human Services, a $1.7 trillion agency that researches cancer, approves prescription drugs and provides health insurance for roughly half the country.About 6 in 10 Republicans approve of Kennedy’s appointment to Trump’s Cabinet and only about 1 in 10 disapprove, according to an AP-NORC poll conducted in December, while the rest aren’t familiar with him or didn’t have an opinion.Kennedy’s talk of healthy foods is what captured the attention of Natalie Moralez, a 32-year-old engineer in Albuquerque, New Mexico, who identifies as an independent.She likes his promises to take on powerful companies. And she’s eager to see him challenge the ingredients they use in the food she finds on supermarket shelves.“Even just buying foods from the grocery store, like what else is in there?” Moralez said. “That’s my main concern, and hopefully he can figure out what the underlying issues are and see if we can do better.” Kennedy doesn’t fare as well among Americans overall, with about 4 in 10 U.S. adults disapproving and about 3 in 10 approving of his appointment. Although Kennedy is a member of one of the most powerful Democratic dynasties in the country, most Democrats said they don’t like that he’s been named to Trump’s Cabinet. About 6 in 10 Democrats “strongly disapprove” of the pick, the December poll found. That’s a higher share of disapproval than other high-profile picks such as Pete Hegseth to be defense secretary or Marco Rubio for secretary of state.

Trump’s pick for IRS chief touted troubled tax credit to businesses - President-elect Donald Trump surprised Washington by picking someone to lead the IRS who has little experience with tax policy or large-scale organizational management. His intended nominee, former Rep. Billy Long (R-Mo.), has also stirred discomfort for another reason: Long has been deeply involved in touting a tax break that’s been plagued by fraud. Since leaving Congress last year, Long has made money by helping business owners retroactively claim a lucrative tax credit offered during the pandemic to help prevent layoffs. “Virtually everyone qualifies,” Long, said on a podcast, bragging that he got some people more than $1 million from the Employee Retention Credit, and likening it to free money. His pitch came the same month, September 2023, the IRS announced it was halting the processing of requests for the break, complaining it had been overwhelmed by potentially fraudulent or simply unqualified claims. So far, the credit has cost the government more than $230 billion. If Long is confirmed to head the agency, he’ll be in a position to decide what to do with a mountain of pending claims, not to mention the thousands more that continue to arrive. That promises to be a major issue in his nomination, with Democrats saying they want to know if he was part of the problem. “This was a field where you had industrial-strength fraud, so there will be a significant number of questions for the nominee on this topic,” said Senate Finance Chair Ron Wyden (D-Ore.). It could be awkward for Republicans too, who have similarly complained of fraud in the ERC program, which was meant to help struggling businesses keep workers on the job during the pandemic. Many have backed repealing the credit. “It will be a question, obviously,” said Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.), also a tax writer. “Just because he’s been involved in the Employee Retention Credit, it’s not necessarily nefarious.”

Trump is already delivering on his promise to go after the press - Media lawyers are bracing for an onslaught of lawsuits from Donald Trump and his political allies in the wake of ABC’s decision to pay $16 million to settle a defamation case Trump filed against the network. Many First Amendment advocates see the settlement as a capitulation by ABC that handed Trump both a lucrative victory and a legal roadmap. They worry it will embolden him to escalate his use of private civil litigation against his media critics when he returns to power next month. These private lawsuits would be separate from anything Trump does as president to deploy official levers of power against the press. And even if the lawsuits lack merit, they can still have a chilling effect.“It’s extremely troubling,” said David Schulz, who runs a media law clinic at Yale Law School. “It’s going to fuel the perception that the media is unfair to Trump and to incentivize more litigation — and more baseless litigation.”No modern president — including Trump in his first term — has made a habit of personally suing the media while in the Oval Office. But speaking to reporters on Monday, Trump promised more lawsuits against journalists and pundits he doesn’t like.Later that day, he followed through on his pledge: He sued the Des Moines Register and its veteran pollster, Ann Selzer, over a preelection poll that showed Trump trailing Kamala Harris in Iowa shortly before last month’s election.“I feel I have to do this,” Trump said in a press conference at Mar-a-Lago. “I shouldn’t really be the one to do it. It should have been the Justice Department or somebody else. I have to do it. It costs a lot of money to do it. We have to straighten out the press.” Railing against the media is a familiar political tactic for Trump, and throughout his business career, he filed many defamation lawsuits against his critics. But the pressure campaign against media organizations he has promised to unleash in his second term is unprecedented.He has threatened to throw journalists in jail and investigate news organizations for treason. He has proposed revoking broadcast licenses held by TV companies when he disagrees with their coverage. His pick for FBI director, Kash Patel, has vowed a campaign of retribution against the press.“We’re going to come after the people in the media who lied about American citizens, who helped Joe Biden rig presidential elections,” Patel said on a podcast last year. “Whether it’s criminally or civilly, we’ll figure that out.”Among the arrows in Trump’s legal quiver is the defamation lawsuit — a type of civil claim in which publishers can be ordered to pay eye-popping sums if a court finds that they knowingly lied or recklessly spread falsehoods about a public figure. (A lower standard of fault applies in suits brought by private figures.)Some conservatives, including Trump himself, have been successfully sued in high-profile defamation suits recently. Trump was ordered to pay the writer E. Jean Carroll more than $80 million; Rudy Giuliani was ordered to pay two Georgia election workers $148 million; Fox News settled with Dominion Voting Systems for $787.5 million.But Trump has called for changes to defamation law to make it easier to sue the media. On the Supreme Court, Justices Clarence Thomas and Neil Gorsuch have floated similar changes.Trump’s lawsuit against ABC arose from a March segment in which news anchor George Stephanopoulos repeatedly said a jury had found Trump liable for raping Carroll in the 1990s.The civil jury in New York actually found Trump not liable for rape, although it did find him liable for sexual abuse. The judge handling that case, Lewis Kaplan, said what the jury concluded Trump did amounted to “digital rape.”ABC’s decision to settle the case for an eight-digit payment — plus an apology — baffled and concerned some media lawyers because the network seemed to have strong legal arguments. Before the Stephanopoulos segment, Kaplan had ruled that Carroll’s own continued claims that Trump raped her were “substantially true.” ABC could have pointed to that ruling to show that Stephanopoulos’ statements did not cross the high legal standard that a defamatory statement must be both false and made recklessly, legal experts said.But ABC and its parent company, Disney, may have had other concerns beyond the strengths of their potential legal defense: They may have feared reprisals by the incoming president.“This kind of capitulation on the heels of Trump’s election makes it appear that one of the factors was fear of retaliation by Trump,” said Jane Kirtley, a former attorney for news organizations who now teaches media ethics and law at the University of Minnesota.Legal experts also pointed to the possibility that ABC could have been embarrassed by potential disclosures of its internal texts, emails and other communications about Trump and the Stephanopoulos segment if the case continued.

Senate Democrats push plan to abolish Electoral College after Trump win - Three Democratic senators unveiled a constitutional amendment to abolish the Electoral College system Monday, just more than a month after President-elect Trump stunned the Democrats by sweeping all seven battleground states, knocking off three Senate Democratic incumbents in the process. Sens. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii,) Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) and Peter Welch (D-Vt.), three leading progressive Senate voices, say it’s time to “restore democracy” by allowing for the direct election of presidents through the popular vote alone. The senators are troubled that the Electoral College has twice elected a candidate who didn’t win the popular vote in the past 19 years. In both those instances, a Republican captured the White House — George W. Bush in the 2000 election and Trump in the 2016 election. “In an election, the person who gets the most votes should win. It’s that simple,” Schatz said. “No one’s vote should count for more based on where they live. The Electoral College is outdated and it’s undemocratic. It’s time to end it.” To be sure, Trump would have still won the 2024 election if it had been decided by popular vote. He collected 77,300,739 votes compared to Vice President Harris’s 75,014,534. But many Democrats think that they would have had a better chance to beat Trump if they had a reason to focus on running up the margin of Harris’s victory in populous Democratic strongholds such as California, Illinois and New York. Republicans, however, also have big, populous states squarely in their column, namely Florida and Texas. Durbin, the chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee, argued that the Electoral College “disenfranchises millions of Americans.” “In 2000, before the general election, I introduced a bipartisan resolution to amend the Constitution and abolish the electoral college. I still believe today that it’s time to retire this 18th century invention,” he said. Democrats are worried that it has become increasingly difficult to win on the presidential ticket in battleground states while advocating for the progressive agenda that candidates need to embrace in the primary to appeal to the party’s base.

Post-election polling suggests a new reason behind Trump’s victory - In the wake of a 2024 election that saw Democrats lose the White House and both chambers of Congress, there have been multiple theories as to why voters were less receptive to Democrats’ messaging. New polling by our firm, Schoen Cooperman Research, in partnership with George Washington University’s Graduate School of Political Management, likely provides the clearest explanation. Our poll, the first post-election poll specifically focused on trust in government, reveals that while voters are less trusting of the government as a result of the election, they believe the government will be more effective and can get things done. Put another way, our poll suggests that Democrats ran the wrong campaign. Whereas they ran a “values campaign,” focused on a government Americans could trust, what voters really wanted was an effective government, and on that, they preferred Donald Trump. Indeed, we found that a plurality (39 percent) of Americans said the 2024 election results made them less trusting of the government. Similarly, a 41 percent plurality of Americans say the election makes them less confident that the government will share “fair and accurate information.” And yet, a plurality (40 percent) of Americans believe the government will be more effective at getting things done going forward, versus 36 percent of Americans saying the government will be less effective. Among independents, the discrepancy is even more pronounced, underscoring this voting bloc’s desire for an effective government over one that is trustworthy. By a 13-point margin (39 percent to 26 percent), independents said they are less — rather than more — trusting of government following the election. And by a similar 11-point margin (39 percent to 28 percent), they feel less — rather than more — confident that the government will share fair and accurate information going forward. However, at the same time, by a 10-point margin (39 percent to 29 percent), independents believe the Trump administration will be more effective at getting things done going forward. The 23-point difference between Independents’ net trust in a second Trump administration (minus-13) and their optimism that his administration will be more effective than Biden-Harris (plus-10) is significant. In the context of the 2024 election, this gap reveals that while the electorate at large – and particularly independents — are distrusting of a Trump administration, a considerable percentage were able to overlook that in favor of a government that they felt would get things done.

Trump’s Former Surgeon General on UnitedHealthcare Killing: ‘Insurers Absolutely Cannot Ignore This Moment’ – The killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson ignited a flurry of support for the alleged shooter: People across the partisan divide used the occasion to vent their collective spleen on social media, rooting on the alleged assassin and posting their own tales of mounting frustrations with American health insurers. Some supporters have set up fundraising accounts for his defense — one account has already raised more than $131,000. And a billboard reading, “FREE LUIGI MANGIONE: HES A HERO” (sic) cropped up along a highway in Southern California. Jerome Adams, who was Surgeon General during the first Trump administration — a position he did not seek to reprise in the second — does not condone the killing. But he says “it signals a profound loss of confidence in structures that are meant to support and protect the public.” Adams, an anesthesiologist who now leads Purdue University’s health equity initiatives, spoke to POLITICO Magazine about what Thompson’s murder means for a health care system already mired in politicization and distrust. This interview has been edited for length and clarity.

• The U.S. Surgeon General is called “America’s doctor.” He (or she) is supposed to use the bully pulpit to help us be as healthy as we can. The Surgeon General doesn’t regulate insurance, but how people feel about it is relevant to their health. And we have reached the point where people are not just angry, they are murderously angry. How does that affect our ability to stay well, to get the care we need?
• When individuals resort to violence, it signals a profound loss of confidence in structures that are meant to support and protect the public. This eroded trust leads to people feeling hesitant to seek care, fearing that they might not receive the treatment that they deserve, or that their concerns will not be taken seriously when they come in for care. It’s crucial that we are having this conversation and that we work to rebuild trust, through transparency, through accountability and through a commitment to patient-centered care.
• Can the insurers ignore this moment? Do they have to dosomething?
• Insurers absolutely cannot ignore this moment. Several things have to happen. Some actions are going to have to be taken by government, some by insurers, some by providers. But obviously in the crosshairs right now — that’s a terrible way of putting it, but it’s also a literal way of putting it — are the insurers.You can’t ignore the fact that companies like United and Anthem are literally making billions of dollars of profit.
• It’s going to be hard to regulate insurers. It’s partly federal, partly state regulation — it’s a mishmash. The incoming Trump administration is talking about less regulation, not more regulation. And there’s a huge partisan divide. If you were in government, what steps would you recommend? How confident are you that they would take them?
• We absolutely know that Republicans tend to be anti-regulation, small government. We also know that this current iteration of the Republican Party and the presidency came in on a wave of populism, on a wave of anti-establishment sentiment that gives me some hope that they will push for change — including looking at the profits of insurance companies. How they’re utilizing their funds, and the ultimate end goal, how they are serving patients and providers. I think the jury is still out in terms of which end of the seesaw is going to end up, up — or down.Government has a critical role in regulating and in reforming the health care system to ensure it meets the needs of all Americans. Insurers have a responsibility to improve their practices, but it can’t be solely left up to them.We have seen bipartisan movement to increase transparency of pricing, to address prescription drug costs. We see bipartisan support around the opioid epidemic, around the need to identify and to treat people with mental health issues. Ultimately, no matter whether it’s a Republican or a Democratic administration, they aren’t going to be able to do their job if the public doesn’t feel that they can trust institutions such as the government — and such as insurance companies — who hold so much power.
• Anger is also coming from providers — doctors, nurses, physical therapists — pretty much everybody who has to deal with these pre-authorization reviews, with being on the phone and emailing insurers. There’s a lot of bureaucracy. Even when it’s approved, they have to do it again every three months. What are you hearing from friends and colleagues who are providers? Are they quitting?
• One of the things I try to do with the bully pulpit that I have is share my experiences, to give them a voice and to illustrate to folks the challenges that I face [as a patient] — even as a former Surgeon General. In 2024, I went to the Mayo Clinic for dehydration and got a $10,000 bill.
• Was that your out-of-pocket cost, or the on-paper cost and you paid less?
• My on-paper bill was $10,000 for going to the ER and getting rehydrated. My out of pocket cost ended up as $5,000. I had a high-deductible insurance plan.No one is going to feel sorry for most physicians. We are in a higher tax bracket than the average citizen. We are seen as part of the system, and it’s challenging to help people understand the importance of provider dissatisfaction. But that provider dissatisfaction turns into patient access issues.I talk to colleagues all the time who have stopped taking insurance and gone to concierge and cash-pay only types of medicine. I am frightened for what that means for access to care, when providers are literally checking out of the system. Previously, the concern was the uninsured, and rightly so. But now, even people who have insurance are struggling to access providers. So it’s important that we frame physician concerns through the lens of patient access to care — and quality of care.

Tom Neuburger: Why CEOs and the Very Rich Should Receive Enhanced Protection | naked capitalism - The case of Luigi Mangione puts people in a bind.It doesn’t put media in a bind; the media’s covering CEO ass as fast as it can. About Brian Thompson, Ken Klippenstein writes, “The coverage seems more like a knighthood than journalism.”) Our government is covering CEO butt with both hands as well. In a tweet with near 2 million views, Luke Goldstein notes this about the state of New York’s response: From the linked Politico article:State officials want to calm the nerves of New York City’s business elite after the assassination of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson sent shockwaves through the corporate world.Gov. Kathy Hochul will broker a virtual meeting Tuesday with state law enforcement officials and about 175 corporate representatives to discuss sharing security resources.I wonder how many denied claimants Ms. Hochul has calmed. There are so many, I’m sure she’s talked to a few.About “shar[ed] security resources,” here’s what that means:[Kathy] Wylde [Partnership for New York City president and the business world’s contact person for this effort] told Playbookthat the discussion will include the State Police as well as state Homeland Security and counterterrorism officials to show how intelligence can be shared with corporate security.Homeland Security. For a lone gunman murder with no terror affiliations. It seems we have a home-grown federal police and its full force will be at their disposal. Nice for the CEO class to be so cared about.But this piece isn’t about the hypocrisy of the state: It’s about how right the state is to take this man’s death seriously. Bare fact: The U.S. was founded on class war. By “founded on,” I mean from the start. James Madison: In England, at this day, if elections were open to all classes of people, the property of the landed proprietors would be insecure. An agrarian law would soon take place. [The Senate] ought to be so constituted as to protect the minority of the opulent against the majority. “Opulent” is a lovely word. This is opulent: The country since has suffered under the war of the classes (or the “orders,” as Madison called them). Jeffersonian democracy was opposed to the elitism of the Federalists. Over the next decades, the franchise was gradually extended, peacefully or not, until after the great Civil War (whose gains for Southern Black swere soon reversed), the very rich became the great dominant class. But for a brief hiatus caused by the national pain of the Great Depression and its happier aftermath, the rich have held sway ever since.What’s worse, their power is unlikely to be taken away. Money controls our politics and our laws, more so every day. And the benefits of that control are, well, opulent.So yes, of course, the CEOs should accept the cover and protection of a state that enables them and which they control. I strongly advise more of it. They should, in fact, have armed guards everywhere.I’m serious. I think it’s important. There are two reasons to advocate seeing billionaires and their CEO operatives ostentatiously and aggressively protected.First, each American can decide for her or himself whether murder is wrong or not. That decision comes with a catch, however:

• If you support social murder — death at a distance executed by corporate greed — you also have to be fine with retaliation. Justifying one type of murder justifies both.
• If you think all murder is wrong, you should then be strongly opposed to state-sanctioned death, including by corporate bodies who turn death into profit.

You can’t support corporate killing and oppose its deadly response. I myself oppose murder of all kinds. So I want our billionaires and their deadly corporate consiglieri very well guarded. Visibly, grandly, over-ambitiously guarded. Why? For the second reason.I want people to see with their eyes who their rulers are, to know without anyone having to launch into speech or explanation. To know by looking and feeling. To know in their bones.Because class consciousness, folks. Or truth in advertising.

Peter Thiel Reveals How Scared Oligarchs Are Of The People -Caitlin Johnstone =- Billionaire Peter Thiel had a fascinating televised moment the other day when asked by Piers Morgan what he thought about the public making a hero of the man suspected of murdering health insurance CEO Brian Thompson. (video included) The way he stumbled and stuttered when trying to answer the question gives a lot of insight into how terrified such people are of the public turning against them one day.“And to those who think this shooter is a hero, because he did it because he said this healthcare executive is presiding over a healthcare system which kills thousands of Americans by denying them cover, what would you say to them?” Morgan asked. Thiel paused for a long time, and then stuttered for a long time, and then eventually got out the words, “It’s, I don’t know what, what to say? I, I think I still think you have, you should try to make an argument. And I, I think this is, this is you should, you know, there may be things wrong with our health care system, but you have, you have to make an argument, and you have to try to find a way to convince people and and change, change it by by that, and this is, you know, this is not going to work.” For those who don’t know, Thiel is a proper deep state oligarch who owes his vast fortune to his enmeshment within the US military-intelligence machine. His company Palantir is a CIA-backed surveillance and data mining tech company with intimate ties to both the US intelligence cartel and to Israel, playing a crucial role in both the US empire’s sprawling surveillance networkand Israeli atrocities against Palestinians. He backed Trump in 2016, and Vice President-Elect JD Vance was a protégé of his, so this man is thoroughly entrenched in the halls of power.Thiel’s blustering response when asked what he thought about the public support we are seeing for the practice of assassinating health insurance CEOs reveals a lot about the kinds of things that keep men like Peter Thiel up at night. Plutocrats like Thiel are constantly thinking about the fact that ordinary people vastly outnumber them and can kill them at any time. They think about it way more often than ordinary people do. It’s a point that they are acutely aware of at all times. It consumes their attention. They are always working on manipulating public consciousness to ensure that we don’t think as much as they do about how many more of us there are of them, and how we don’t have to put up with their domination of our society if we don’t want to. Manipulating public consciousness is of existential importance to the ruling class, because no matter how many billions of dollars you amass, at the end of the day you’re still a soft skin sack of blood and bones like anybody else, and you share a society with huge numbers of people who can very easily hurt you if they want to. That’s why our minds are constantly being hammered with propaganda into accepting the status quo politics upon which our rulers have built their kingdoms.But we’re seeing the propaganda losing its grip on our minds. Hollywood tried to train people to believe heroes look like soldiers and cops, or billionaires using their wealth to become Iron Man and Batman, and then the people chose as their hero a guy who was arrested for shooting a health insurance CEO. The other day a DJ threw up pictures of the suspected shooter Luigi Mangione during his concert and drew cheers from the crowd — and this was at a Disney-themed show. So that’s why the empire managers are pushing to get their killer robots up and running as quickly as possible. Israel is reportedly preparing to deploy dozens of weapons systems in the West Bank which are capable of firing deadly rounds without human intervention, meaning fully autonomous killing machines as opposed to remote-controlled. These killer robots have already been in use on Israel’s border with Gaza.Various military robots have been tested in Gaza since Israel’s onslaught on the enclave began last year, and now they’re expanding the field testing of their murderbots to the West Bank as well. Of all the horrible things Israel and its western backers do to the Palestinians, among the most evil is the way they use them as lab rats to field test new weapons systems so the rest of the empire can learn how effective those systems are.You may be sure that empire managers like Peter Thiel are watching these developments with keen interest. Militarized robots are the anti-guillotine. They’re the final solution to the ancient “there are a lot more of us than there are of our rulers” problem. Everyone with wealth and power has been eyeingtheir incremental rollout with intense interest while trying to play it cool.So at this point we’re essentially looking at a race to see if the oligarchic empire can manufacture the necessary environment to allow the use of robotic security forces to lock their power in place forever before the masses get fed up with the increasing inequalities and abuses of the status quo and decide to force a better system into existence. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

Where Does The Aggression Really Begin? - Caitlin Johnstone - New York prosecutors have charged Luigi Mangione with “murder as an act of terrorism” in his alleged shooting of health insurance CEO Brian Thompson earlier this month. This news comes out at the same time as a Haaretz report titled “‘No Civilians. Everyone’s a Terrorist’: IDF Soldiers Expose Arbitrary Killings and Rampant Lawlessness in Gaza’s Netzarim Corridor.” The report contains testimony from Israeli troops that civilians are being murdered in Gaza and are then being retroactively designated as terrorists to justify their execution.“We’re killing civilians there who are then counted as terrorists,” a recently discharged officer told Haaretz. These two stories together say so much about the way the label “terrorist” is used under the US-centralized power umbrella. The guy who shot the health insurance CEO is a terrorist, but the people systematically slaughtering civilians in Gaza are not terrorists. The people fighting against those who are slaughtering the civilians are terrorists, and noncombatants are being categorized as belonging to this terrorist organization in order to justify killing them. The al-Qaeda affiliates in Syriawere terrorists, but now they’re a US puppet regime so soon they won’t be terrorists — but they need to be designated terrorists for a little while longer because the claim that Syria is crawling with terrorists is Israel’s justification for its recent land grabs there. The Uyghur militant group ETIM used to be a terrorist group, but now they’re not a terrorist group because they can be used to help carve up Syria and maybe fight China later on. The IRGC is a military wing of a sovereign nation, but it counts as a terrorist group because of vibes or something. Is that clear enough? Really the label “terrorist” is nothing more than a tool of imperial narrative control which gets moved around based on whether or not someone’s use of violence is deemed legitimate by the managers of the empire. Because Mangione’s alleged crime has ignited a public interest in class warfare, the label “terrorism” is being used to frame it as an especially heinous act of evil against an innocent member of the public. The empire’s favorite trick is to begin the historical record at the moment its enemies retaliate against its abuses. Oh no, a health insurance CEO was victimized by an evil act of terrorism. Oh no, Israel was just innocently minding its own business when it was viciously attacked by Hamas. Oh no, Iran attacked Israel completely out of the blue and now Israel must retaliate. Oh no, Russia just launched an entirely unprovoked war on Ukraine. Everything that led up to the unauthorized act of violence is erased from the record, because all of the violence, provocation and abuse which gave rise to the unauthorized act of violence were authorized by the empire. Authorized aggression doesn’t count as aggression. Whoever controls the narrative controls the world. If you control the narrative you can control not only when the historical record of violence begins but what kinds of violence qualify as violence. Killing people by depriving them of healthcare because denying healthcare services is how your company increases its profit margins? That’s not violence. Inflicting tyranny and abuse upon a deliberately marginalized ethnic group in an apartheid state? That’s not violence. Violence is when you respond to those forceful aggressions with forceful aggressions of your own. If we are to become a healthy society, we’re going to have to stop allowing some forms of violence, aggression and abuse to be redacted from the official records while others are listed and condemned. Those who care about truth and justice account for all forms of violence, aggression and abuse, not only those which inconvenience the rich and powerful.It is an act of aggression to do things which sicken and impoverish others in order to advance your own wealth.It is an act of aggression to pollute the biosphere we all depend on for survival in order to increase your profit margins.It is an act of aggression to use your wealth to manipulate your nation’s politics in ways which exacerbate inequality and injustice.It is an act of aggression to maintain an apartheid state which cannot exist without nonstop violence.It is an act of aggression to surround the earth with military bases and encircle nations which disobey your dictates.It is an act of aggression to try to rule the world using military violence, proxy conflicts, staged coups, threats, starvation sanctions, and financial and economic coercion.These are all acts of aggression, and any retaliation against them will never be an unprovoked attack. As we move into the future while these abuses exacerbate, it’s going to become very important to maintain an acute awareness of this.

Florida woman arrested for saying “delay, deny, depose” to Blue Cross Blue Shield health insurance representative on phone - Briana Boston, a 42-year-old mother from Lakeland, Florida, has been charged with felony “written threat to kill or injure—conduct a mass shooting or an act of terrorism” after a verbal altercation with a representative from Blue Cross Blue Shield health insurance. Boston reportedly called the health insurance company after two medical claims were denied, during which she allegedly said “Delay, deny, depose. You people are next.” Boston’s words are most likely a reference to the fatal shooting of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson. Alleged shooter Luigi Mangione reportedly wrote the words “delay, deny, depose” on the bullet casings he used to shoot Thompson in New York City earlier this month. Her words were taken as a threat and the insurance company contacted the FBI who then contacted the Lakeland Police Department (LPD). LPD detective Stephen Bonczyk interviewed Boston at her home on the same day as the call, according to the affidavit. She then apologized for her remarks and told the detective that she did not own any firearms and was not a threat to anyone. It has also been reported that Boston does not have a criminal history or convictions or even charges.Bonczyk, however, concluded that “Based on the aforementioned statements made by Boston and based off of current events, I believe these statements were meant to threaten the insurance company by using the UnitedHealthcare CEO’s homicide to her advantage.” Boston was arrested and her bond was set at $100,000, with the judge determining that the high bond was “appropriate considering the status of our country at this point.” The charges against Boston are severe. If convicted, she could face upwards of 15 years in prison. A GoFundMe page set up by Boston’s husband to raise money for her bail has raised more than $60,000 as of this writing with 1,400 donations. More than 1,200 people have donated from across the world, with many leaving supportive comments railing against the deadly profiteering of health insurance companies and sympathizing with her case.

Judge rules Trump's hush money conviction withstands Supreme Court immunity --A New York judge upheld a jury’s verdict that made President-elect Trump a felon, ruling the conviction in the hush money case can withstand the Supreme Court’s new test for presidential immunity. Judge Juan Merchan’s decision comes on the heels of Trump’s presidential election victory against Vice President Harris, when voters chose to catapult him back to the White House despite his years of legal peril. The judge has not yet ruled on Trump’s efforts to toss the case entirely now that he is president-elect.Trump’s attorneys contended that New York prosecutors introduced evidence during his seven-week trial that was protected by the Supreme Court’s presidential immunity doctrine. Among other things, the challenged evidence included testimony from Trump White House aides, tweets Trump issued while in office and his government ethics form. The judge ruled Trump failed to preserve some of his immunity objections by not raising them earlier, but regardless, none of the evidence was protected. “The evidence related to the preserved claims relate entirely to unofficial conduct and thus, receive no immunity protections; and as to the claims that were unpreserved, this Court finds in the alternative, that when considered on the merits, they too are denied because they relate entirely to unofficial conduct,” Merchan wrote in his ruling. After the trial, the high court held that former presidents enjoy absolute immunity from criminal prosecution for exercising core constitutional powers and at least presumptive immunity for other official acts. Unofficial conduct can be prosecuted, but the jury cannot question the motivation behind a presidential decision, the court said. Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg (D) urged the judge to reject Trump’s arguments, arguing that no evidence placed before the jury was protected, and even if it was, it paled in comparison to “other overwhelming evidence of defendant’s guilt.” Merchan agreed, writing that even if immunity did extend to the evidence in question, he “would still find that the People’s use of these acts as evidence of the decidedly personal acts of falsifying business records poses no danger of intrusion on the authority and function of the Executive Branch, a conclusion amply supported by non-motive-related evidence.” Trump was convicted on 34 counts of falsifying business records tied to a $130,000 hush money payment made to adult film actress Stormy Daniels ahead of the 2016 presidential election to conceal an affair, which he denies. Prosecutors with the district attorney’s office portrayed the scheme as an effort to unlawfully influence the election’s outcome. The New York hush money case was the first-ever criminal prosecution of a former president, and the only one to have reached trial. Trump has separately argued that his White House victory compels the dismissal of the jury’s verdict and the case in its entirety. Bragg has pushed back, instead laying out alternatives like freezing the proceedings during Trump’s term. The judge has yet to rule on that matter.

'Something great with crypto:' Trump affirms bitcoin reserve - President-elect Donald Trump doubled down on his call for the U.S. to become an active investor in the crypto industry. The president-elect confirmed that he will pursue a strategic reserve of the flagship cryptocurrency as part of a broader push for the U.S. to champion the digital asset industry.

Ozy Media founder Carlos Watson sentenced to 10 years Carlos Watson, founder of the defunct digital media company Ozy Media, was sentenced to 10 years in prison for lying to investors about the startup’s finances. Watson’s 116-month-long sentence for conspiracy to commit securities fraud, conspiracy to commit wire fraud and aggravated identity theft came Monday in Brooklyn federal court, according to a press release from the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of New York. Watson’s sentence was highlighted by Mediaite. From 2018 to 2021, per court filings and what was confirmed during the trial, Watson, along with co-conspirators, put together “a scheme to defraud investors out of tens of millions of dollars” via “fraudulent misrepresentations and omissions” of the digital media company’s financial performance, according to the press release. “Carlos Watson orchestrated a years-long, audacious scheme to defraud investors and lenders to his company, Ozy Media, out of tens of millions of dollars,” U.S. Attorney Breon Peace said in the release. “His incessant and deliberate lies demonstrated not only a brazen disregard for the rule of law, but also a contempt for the values of honesty and fairness that should underlie American entrepreneurship.” In early 2023, Watson was arrested on wire fraud charges in the wake of a former executive at his company pleading guilty to wire fraud charges. He later denied wrongdoing, saying that he was “and never have been a ‘con man.'” “I have worked around the clock for 10 years to build this company and devoted my life savings to help get us through rough patches,” Watson said on the social platform X. “This has been a life’s work and I am proud of what I, my family, and my team have been able to accomplish.” “I’m not saying I haven’t made mistakes – I have. But it’s fair to ask, why I’ve been singled out? OZY is a real and valuable company that was built through an enormous amount of hard work and sacrifice,” he continued.

Ledger Wallet Crypto Users Targeted in Latest Phishing Scam - Key Notes

• The phishing campaign uses professional email platforms like SendGrid and fake Ledger-branded websites.
• Scammers validate recovery phrase inputs to ensure accurate data collection, granting them full access to victims' wallets.
• In response to the attacks, Ledger reminded users never to share their 24-word recovery phrases and emphasized vigilance.

The widely used cryptocurrency hardware wallet Ledger has been seeing a fresh phase of phishing scams. Cybercriminals are sending fake emails that mimic official communications, attempting to trick wallet users into revealing their recovery phrases. These scams have spurred up recently amid heightened security concerns and the surge in crypto transactions during the holiday season. In its latest report, Bleeping Computer stated that the phishing scams started with emails designed to look just like official Ledger communications. The report also notes: “A new Ledger phishing campaign is underway that pretends to be a data breach notification. It asks you to verify your recovery phrase, which is then stolen and used to steal your cryptocurrency”. The phishing scam is targeting Ledger wallet users with emails claiming a “Security Alert: Data Breach May Expose Your Recovery Phrase”. The scammers sent professional-looking emails using the SendGrid email marketing platform. In the email, they falsely claimed a recent Ledger data breach and urged recipients to verify their recovery phrases using a so-called “secure verification tool.” Reports reveal that the phishing emails direct victims to a convincing fake Ledger-branded website hosted on Amazon Web Services. From there, users are redirected to a fraudulent domain, ledger-recovery[.]info, registered on December 15, 2024. The site imitates Ledger’s official platform and prompts users to perform a “security check” by entering their wallet recovery phrases. The scammers have used a deceptive tactic while validating inputs against a list of 2,048 recognized terms commonly used in recovery phrases. Regardless of what users enter, the site falsely flags the phrase as invalid, prompting repeated attempts and ensuring the scammers collect accurate data. After securing the correct recovery phase, attackers gain complete access to the victim’s wallet.

Pastor Swindles $5.9 Million through Cryptocurrency Scam -A pastor in the state of Washington has been accused of swindling $5.9 million from churchgoers through a fraudulent cryptocurrency scam, according to a statement from the Commodity Future Trading Commission (CFTC). Francier Obando Pinillo, pastor of Tiempos de Poder Church in Pasco, Washington, was arrested in Miami earlier this month. He was then indicted in the U.S. District Court in Eastern Washington on 25 counts of wire fraud and one count of unlicensed money transmitting business, according to court records. Additionally, Pinillo is facing a lawsuit from the CFTC alleging that the pastor engaged in a “Ponzi” scheme that deceived more than 1,500 people, including members of his own church. He allegedly misappropriated all funds provided by customers. CFTC is an independent federal agency that oversees the enforcement of commodity exchanges. “There was no trading platform, no trading took place, no profits were generated, and Pinillo misappropriated all assets that customers transferred to him,” CFTC wrote in its statement. The organization is seeking restitution for Pinillo’s defrauded customers, along with trading bans and a permanent prohibition against further violations of the Commodity Exchange Act, according to the lawsuit. “He abused his position of trust as the church pastor to attract customers,” CFTC said. “Pinillo, individually and doing business as the Solanofi entities, mainly targeted Spanish-speaking customers who had little to no experience or understanding in digital asset transactions or commodity interest trading.”The CFTC alleged Pinillo committed fraud and misappropriation through a multilevel marketing scheme between November 2021 and December 2023, according to its lawsuit. He operated the scam through his companies, Solanofi, Solano Capital Investments, and Solano Partners LTD — both of which were “sham” businesses, CFTC said in its statement. Pinillo reportedly told customers he used these companies to conduct “high-performance” trading on Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, and other cryptocurrencies. He promised customers up to 34.9% in profits and offered guaranteed returns through a staking service, according to the lawsuit. Pinillo reportedly gave presentations where he claimed a $1,000 investment could grow to just under $1 million in 24 months, the lawsuit said. When customers checked through accounts, they saw an online dashboard that displayed fabricated account statements, according to the lawsuit. To attract more potential customers to his scam, Pinillo’s scheme allegedly included a 15% referral bonus.

Saratoga resident loses $5.5 million in fraudulent cryptocurrency scam – -- A Saratoga resident reported that someone contacted them online, posed as cryptocurrency traders and ultimately convinced the victim to invest money in fraudulent cryptocurrency schemes for a total loss of approximately $5.5 million.

Local residents lose $400K+ from new cryptocurrency scam— Police are issuing a warning after several scams were reported, with local victims losing over $400,000 collectively.The Beavercreek Police Department is putting out a warning after learning of multiple residents falling victim to a new type of scam. These scams involve fraudulent investments where the scammer requests payment in cryptocurrency. This type of digital currency only exists in electronic form, making it harder to trace. It can typically be used over the phone, computer or at an ATM. Scammers prefer this form of payment because transactions are instant and irreversible.That means lost funds are usually gone for good, with local police saying its difficult to press charges or recover money when scammers use this method. “While we collaborate with the Ohio Attorney General’s Office, which has established a Cyber-Facilitated Fraud Unit, recovery of lost funds is often not possible,” said Beavercreek PD. Police want to remind everyone to use caution and do your research before investing or sending money. If a deal seems too good to be true, it likely is.

Nigeria Arrests Nearly 800 Over ‘Pig Butchering’ Crypto Scam Targeting North Americans and Europeans - Nigerian authorities arrested nearly 800 individuals who allegedly operated crypto “pig butchering” scams targeting North American and European victims.In a pig butchering scam, bad actors form a relationship with victims online to gain their trust and convince them to invest in fake opportunities and/or cryptocurrency platforms that the scammers control.Once the victim has invested a significant amount of money, the con artist disappears with the funds.The fraudsters refer to their victims as “pigs” because they use elaborate storylines to “fatten up” the targets into believing they are in close relationships.Nigeria’s Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) recently raided a luxury building in Lagos where workers at a call center allegedly facilitated the scams, per a press release from the law enforcement agency.EFCC Public Affairs Director Wilson Uwujaren said foreign nationals used the building to train Nigerian accomplices.“All the floors are equipped with high-end desktop computers. On the 5th floor alone, investigators recovered 500 SIM cards of local telcos that were bought for criminal purposes.Their Nigerian accomplices were recruited by the foreign kingpins to prospect for victims online through phishing, targeting mostly Americans, Canadians, Mexicans, and several others from European countries. They usually arm them with desktop computers and mobile devices and create fake profiles for them.The Nigerian accomplices are equally provided with logs that allow them access to foreign communication lines and victims, which they chat with on WhatsApp, Instagram and Telegram.”

Hailey Welch and ‘Hawk Tuah’ Partners Accused of Fraud in Crypto Lawsuit -- Two weeks have passed since Hailey Welch, known to her fans as the “Hawk Tuah Girl,” disappeared from the public eye, leaving behind a storm of controversy surrounding her once-promising cryptocurrency project. Welch, who gained popularity through her podcast Talk Tuah, has not released a new episode since claiming she was “going to sleep” shortly before the Hawk Tuah memecoin tanked by 95%. The fallout has been swift and severe. Investors who backed Welch’s Hawk Tuah token have filed a lawsuit against her and associated entities, alleging the project was a fraudulent “rug pull.” The lawsuit, filed on behalf of those affected, names Welch, the ‘Tuah The Moon Foundation,’ OverHere Ltd, its executive Clinton So, and the coin’s promoter, Alex Larson Schultz, as defendants. According to court documents obtained by Newsweek, the complaint states that “the unlawful promotion and sale of the Hawk Tuah cryptocurrency memecoin” led to significant financial losses for investors, many of whom were first-time cryptocurrency participants. Welch’s public endorsement of the project and her involvement in its road map played a pivotal role in attracting investors, the lawsuit claims. “Many of the investors were first-time cryptocurrency participants drawn to the project through Welch’s involvement,” the lawsuit alleges. “The rapid decline in the Token’s value caused substantial damages to investors who relied on Welch’s participation and the project’s stated road map.” The Hawk Tuah token initially gained traction as part of a wave of community-driven memecoins, with Welch promoting it heavily across social media and her podcast. However, allegations of mismanagement and deceptive practices arose after the token’s value plummeted nearly overnight, wiping out millions in investor funds. To add more mystery, Welch has stopped making public comments of any kind and has fostered speculation on her whereabouts and her level of involvement in the purported fraud. Her disappearance draws comparisons with other high-profile cryptocurrency scandals in which founders disappeared when their projects imploded.

Hawk Tuah Girl Breaks Silence on Alleged Cryptocurrency Scam - Haliey Welch, better known as Hawk Tuah Girl, is pretty much exclusively known for talking but has been silent for more than two weeks following the collapse of the branded memecoin $HAWK. Well, Welch is back—though not in front of a mic. Instead, she’s issued a very lawyerly statement following the news that a class action lawsuit has been filed against the team responsible for $HAWK and its unceremonious but extremely predictable crash. “I take this situation extremely seriously and want to address my fans, the investors who have been affected, and the broader community,” Welch said. “I am fully cooperating with and am committed to assisting the legal team representing the individuals impacted, as well as to help uncover the truth, hold the responsible parties accountable, and resolve this matter.” Some big “We’re all trying to find the guy who did this” vibes coming from the latter part of her statement. It’s been a minute since Welch, who completely inexplicably rode a single viral moment of TikTok fame to internet stardom, has spoken about…well, anything. Up until December 4, she went about her usual business, which included posting episodes of her Talk Tuah podcast and heavily promoting $HAWK coin at just about every turn on Twitter. Once $HAWK officially launched, the bottom seemed to fall out. $HAWK launched on December 4 at 5 pm EST. According to analysis from TRM Labs, it had an initial market capitalization of $490. Within a matter of hours, the value plummeted by 91% and the market cap dropped to $41.7 million. About 10 days later, the value of the token was essentially zero. Welch and the team at overHere Ltd, which was responsible for creating the $HAWK coin, hopped on a Twitter Spaces stream on the night of the launch to try to explain what happened. It went…poorly. Crypto scam reporter and YouTuber Coffeezilla got on the mic and called out the creators for allegedly selling a sizable chunk of the tokens to insiders before launch while only releasing 3% to the public for trading as well as paying themselves high transaction fees. The result looked a lot like a rug pull that saw a bunch of Hawk Tuah fans left holding the bag. The whole thing was pretty confrontational and somehow ended when Welch just decided she was zonked and needed some rest. “Anywho, I’m gonna go to bed and I’ll see you guys tomorrow,” Welch said and left the Space. And that was the last anyone had heard from her. Fittingly, she has returned just one day after $HAWK investors filed a class action lawsuit against the overHere team that created the memecoin. They claim to have collectively lost $151,000, which is a bummer but also means they put $151,000 into a memecoin built around Hawk Tuah girl so, you know. No one deserves to lose their money but like, did any of them think about putting it in an IRA or something? Anyway, Welch is not current named as a defendant in the suit. In fact, she’s working with Burwick Law, which is representing the investors who got scammed. Welch has maintained the entire time that she wasn’t trying to fleece her fans, which at least seems plausible. Despite posting the “tokenomics” of the coin, it seems unlikely that she really understood what was happening with the whole thing. But she did allegedly net $125,000 just for promoting the coin and probably was not all that scrupulous when considering the most likely outcome for anyone unfortunate enough to throw some cash at that thang.

Crypto scammers posing as real brands on X are easily hacking YouTubers - For months, popular fighting game YouTubers have been under attack. Even the seemingly most cautious among them have been duped by sophisticated phishing attacks that hack their accounts to push cryptocurrency scams by convincingly appearing to offer legitimate sponsorships from established brands. These scams often start with bad actors seemingly taking over verified accounts on X (formerly Twitter) with substantial followings and then using them to impersonate marketing managers at real brands who can be easily found on LinkedIn. The fake X accounts go to great lengths to appear legitimate. They link to brands' actual websites and populate feeds with histories seemingly spanning decades by re-posting brands' authentic posts. Approaching YouTubers from these accounts, the scammers offer sponsorships, sometimes engaging in prolonged discussions before eventually requiring YouTubers to submit a non-disclosure agreement (NDA). That's when the phishing attack would strike, installing malware when users were asked to download a PDF or click a link to Docusign or an alternative. Within minutes of clicking, YouTubers lost their accounts, which for many meant losing their primary source of income. Michael Townsend has published popular fighting game guides and reactions to the latest gaming news as "Rooflemonger" on YouTube for the past seven years. In that time, he's gained more than 200,000 subscribers, posting thousands of videos and turning a hobby into a full-time job. Everything was going great until crypto scammers hacked his account, posing as JBL Audio and removing his YouTube channel for days just as a new game from one of his favorite franchises, Virtua Fighter 6, was announced. His account has since been restored, as have most hacked accounts seemingly, but he missed out on a potentially lucrative news cycle, lost thousands of subscribers, and now has to repopulate old playlists that got deleted. "I basically had a mental breakdown," Townsend said in a YouTube video explaining how his account got hacked so that others can avoid his "pitfalls." Townsend is far from the only gamer who got hacked. In a post on X, another YouTuber named five other popular fighting game streamers whose accounts were also compromised. And in a YouTube video explaining "why every YouTuber is getting hacked," a popular Street Fighter 6 gamer who said he was also a victim, "Brian_F," suggested that "nearly half" of fighting game content creators have been affected. Google did not respond to multiple requests to comment on the phishing scam, but a YouTube spokesperson did respond on X, explaining how YouTubers can get their channels back. "When a channel is hacked, the first step is for the channel owner to reach out to Creator Support," YouTube said. "If this creator has already reached out, we're most likely already working on it (cases like this can take some time, so we really appreciate your patience)." On YouTube, Townsend said that YouTube's process for account recovery was tiresome. He had to contact YouTube "over and over and over and over" to "glacially" "get the ball rolling" while he watched his subscriber numbers fall. Once YouTube finally blocked the hacked account, that "stopped the bleeding," he said, but he still seemingly has work to do to rebuild his credibility with YouTube's algorithm after the hack. Townsend told Ars that he is currently experiencing delays in processing new videos and, perhaps more urgently, believes that issues with the algorithm may be significantly decreasing his revenue on the platform. Townsend told Ars that while YouTube helped restore his channel, the 75 percent drop in income that he's seeing "across the board" is "nothing out of the ordinary." Ars reviewed a side-by-side comparison of video earnings before and after the hack to verify the "monstrous" drop in his earnings.

BankThink: Trump's appointment of Sacks bodes well for smarter fintech regulation - As we progress toward January, the shape of the new administration is coming into sharper focus, bringing with it a critical opportunity to modernize outdated regulatory frameworks that have long hindered American fintechs and financial innovation. The early signals point to a shift toward balanced, forward-thinking regulations that could deliver meaningful benefits for consumers, small businesses and the broader U.S. economy.By naming David Sacks as his "AI & Crypto Czar," Donald Trump has sent a strong signal that forward-thinking regulation of the most vibrant sector of the financial services industry could be on the way.

Stablecoin payment plays accelerate as 2024 closes - Ripple, MoneyGram and FV Bank are among the companies betting that expensive cross-border transfers will open a door to stablecoin payments, with each firm making progress in recent days. They all bolstered their ability to distribute digital assets, with cross-border transactions emerging as a primary use case.

Is cash becoming extinct? -- The hurricanes that ravaged the Southeast in September brought a trail of destruction, uprooting lives and isolating communities from basic necessities. Myriad payment innovations are cutting into old-school cash payments, changing how funds are accessed, spent and received for purposes ranging from in-store payments to accessing disaster recovery funds. Will these changes bring new communities into banking, or will it leave them behind?

Flagstar to pay $3.5M for misleading about 2021 cyberattack -- Flagstar Bancorp will pay a penalty of $3.5 million in compliance with a consent order with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) over what the commission found were misleading statements by the bank regarding a cyberattack the bank suffered in late 2021. That cyberattack was the second Flagstar had suffered that year; it suffered a third two years later. According to an order by the SEC, the bank negligently under-reported what it knew about a data breach and ransomware attack it suffered that year.

FDIC considers lawsuit against ex-SVB executives - The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. board voted Tuesday to explore a lawsuit against six former officers and 11 unnamed former directors of Silicon Valley Bank for mismanagement that led to the bank's failure. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is considering suing former Silicon Valley Bank executives over risk management decisions, imprudent dividends and billions in losses that fueled a banking crisis in 2023.

Chopra calls on FDIC to step up AML enforcement after TD case 0 TD Bank Group's historic money-laundering-related crimes this fall have stirred up conversations among regulators, politicians and industry experts about how and when banks should be shut down for such compliance violations. TD Bank Group's crimes have sparked questions of how banks should be penalized for moving dirty money. CFPB Director Rohit Chopra said the FDIC should do more.

CFPB sues BofA, JPM and Wells over Zelle fraud - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau sued three of the largest U.S. banks for fraud perpetrated on the bank-owned payment network Zelle, alleging shoddy safeguards and millions in consumer losses.

OCC issues another 'comprehensive' order against USAA - For the third time in five years, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency issued an enforcement action against the beleaguered bank. It bars USAA from adding new products or loosening its membership criteria without evaluating the risks of getting bigger.

Former BaaS bank cited again by regulators - A Franklin, Tennessee, community bank has been cited by federal regulators for the second time this year. The Federal Reserve issued an enforcement action against Lineage Bank's holding company, following a similar move by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. earlier this year.

We're about to find out how populist Trump 2.0 really is -- Earlier this year, American Banker's Washington bureau put out a four-part series about the evolving-yet-critical thread of populism in financial regulation. To recap, a new generation of Republican lawmakers — led by now-Vice President-elect JD Vance — have embraced a message to voters that borrows some of the anti-bank rhetoric long associated with the likes of Sens. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and melds it with elements of the social conservatism to create an us-versus-them pitch that defines "us" as rural, traditionalist conservatives and "them" as wealthy urban elites. The populist strain that has long animated the left wing of the Democratic party seems to have migrated to the Republican center, benefiting President-elect Donald Trump in this year's election. We're about to find out whether right-wing populism is as earnest as its left-wing predecessor.

BankThink: The banking industry should take the lead on modernizing regulation -The incoming administration has already made several public statements suggesting a desire to reduce financial services regulation. And many in the industry have specific regulations or regimes they'd like to see eliminated. The incoming administration's influence over Congress, at least over the next two years, presents a unique opportunity for those who want to modernize bank regulation. If the Trump administration is really planning to trim back regulations on banking and financial services firms, the industry needs to get out in front of the process by identifying necessary reforms.

OCC highlights growing pressures in 'sound' banking system - The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency said the banking system remains stable, but faces growing pressures in profitability and credit quality as the economic landscape evolves, according to the agency's annual report released Friday. The OCC's 2024 annual report said that while the federal banking system remains stable, it faces challenges such as rising credit costs, declining net income and increasing nonperforming loans.

FDIC mulls blanket dividend restrictions in times of stress - Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra Tuesday reopened a debate around restricting banks from share buybacks and dividends during times of economic distress. Members of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. board of directors Tuesday debated Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra's proposal limiting capital distributions system-wide during times of stress, as well as penalties for institutions caught engaging in money laundering.

Exclusive: Deposit-insurance reform picks up steam with Waters bill — Rep. Maxine Waters, D-Calif., has introduced a bill that would direct agencies to raise the deposit-insurance limit for business accounts, part of a growing bipartisan movement to do so that could see substantial progress in the next Congress. The proposal has similar elements to Republican-led legislation, including a piece of a measure from Vice President-elect JD Vance. Wells Fargo & Co. stock is underperforming Tuesday pre-market as Tim Sloan, president and chief executive officer of Wells Fargo & Co. , prepares to appear before a House committee focused on what it's calling a "pattern of consumer abuses."

Where the Fed's Michael Barr goes from here - Michael Barr has a lot to do and little time to do it. Known as a pragmatic moderate before arriving at the Fed, Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr is now synonymous with an aggressive and divisive approach to bank regulation. Can he still accomplish his goals under President Trump?

Inside the growing, bipartisan demand for CEO accountability - The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. board took an uncommonly uncontroversial step this week by voting unanimously to consider legal action against former senior executives of Silicon Valley Bank for alleged negligence that led to the bank's failure in 2023. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.'s decision to weigh civil lawsuits against Silicon Valley Bank executives to recover losses to its Deposit Insurance Fund isn't rare in itself, but the bipartisan nature of the move and size of the failed institution suggest a current that isn't changing with the presidential administration.

Politics, history, hubris: why agency consolidation isn't easy - The Trump transition team's reported consideration of merging major U.S. banking regulators — including by abolishing the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and absorbing its deposit insurance functions into the Treasury Department — has reignited debate about the feasibility of streamlining the patchwork of federal bank regulatory agencies. Proposals to streamline U.S. banking regulators have resurfaced with the Trump administration's focus on efficiency, but experts and history suggest such changes are unlikely amid political and industry resistance.

House Republicans warn banking agencies to pause rulemakings— House Republicans asked that banking agencies refrain from moving forward with new rules during the lame duck Biden administration, and that they keep all records that could be subpoenaed by Congress. Letters hint at more oversight of the banking agencies, as well as the Treasury Department, the CFPB and the Securities and Exchange Commission, under the Republican-controlled Senate.

PACE loan rules finally issued by CFPB - Six years after Pres. Trump signed Dodd-Frank reform, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau issued rules bringing these loans under Truth-in-Lending.The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has issued a rule that requires Truth in Lending Act protections, including ability-to-repay, to Property Assessed Clean Energy loans.

CFPB targets card industry over the devaluation of rewards - As the Biden administration comes to a close, the agency called out "bait-and-switch tactics" by card issuers. It also announced a new tool allowing consumers to comparison shop for credit cards.

Fraud-fighting numberless credit cards look for a market - Some banks and fintechs are adopting numberless cards to curb fraud, but for others, it remains a hard sell. Not all banks and fintechs are on board with numberless cards, and some payment professionals question whether they are worth the cost.

Banks seek injunction to stop CFPB's $5 overdraft rule Banks and trade groups are seeking to stop the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's $5 overdraft fee rule from going into effect next year. Bank trade groups filed a motion for a preliminary injunction to stop the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's $5 overdraft fee rule from going into effect late next year.

CFPB's $5 overdraft rule presents populist challenge to GOP - The incoming Trump administration could face an early political dilemma if it seeks to kill the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's final rule slashing overdraft fees to $5. There are many ways for the incoming administration to overturn the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's final rule slashing overdraft late fees to $5. But the politics of nullifying the rule is a challenge to an administration that promised lower prices.

CFPB scrutinizes the role of credit cards in sports gambling - For years, the use of cash advances on credit cards in Kansas closely tracked the pattern in the neighboring state of Missouri. Then in September 2022, around the start of the NFL season, the states' trends diverged. New bureau research digs into the fees that bettors get charged when they use credit cards to fund gambling accounts.

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey -- From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 0.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 13, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 0.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 3 percent from the previous week and was 41 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 6 percent higher than the same week one year ago. “Mortgage rates increased last week, leading to overall mortgage application activity decreasing for the first time in five weeks, “Conventional and VA purchase applications drove this week’s increase in purchase activity on a weekly and annual basis. Buyers remained active in the purchase market, helped by gradually improving inventory conditions and a more positive outlook on the economy and job market. Refinance applications declined last week, largely driven by VA refinances that were down 17 percent after two weeks of gains.” ... The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) increased to 6.75 percent from 6.67 percent, with points remaining unchanged at 0.66 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index. According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 6% year-over-year unadjusted. Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly). Purchase application activity is up about 25% from the lows in late October 2023 and is now 4% above the lowest levels during the housing bust. The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.The refinance index increased as mortgage rates declined in September, but the index declined as rates moved back up.

Housing Dec 16th Weekly Update: Inventory down 1.1% Week-over-week, Up 26.6% Year-over-year -- Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now 7.7% below the peak for the year (8 weeks ago). Inventory will continue to decline seasonally until early next year. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 26.6% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 26.3%), and down 17.0% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 16.8%). Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels has closed significantly! This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of Dec 13th, inventory was at 682 thousand (7-day average), compared to 690 thousand the prior week. Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.

Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 23.4% YoY -- On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For November, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 26.2% YoY, but still down 21.5% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 23.4% YoY. Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending Dec. 14, 2024
• Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 23.4% above year-ago levels
For the 58th consecutive week, the number of homes for sale has increased compared with the same time last year. However, this week’s growth was the slowest since March 2024. As the mortgage rates remain close to 7%, the combination of sluggish listing activity and muted buyer demand has led to a slowdown in inventory growth. This increase should help lead to a more balanced housing market heading into 2025.
• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—increased 7.9%
The past two weeks have brought the highest combined two-week increase in new listings since April, reflecting a rising desire of existing home sellers to sell their home and, in many cases, also buy a new one. This late-season increase could lead to a noticeable but modest increase in housing market activity throughout the remainder of the year. Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. Inventory was up year-over-year for the 58th consecutive week. New listings remain below typical pre-pandemic levels.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in November - From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Elevated 4.8% in November; Post Strongest Year-Over-Year Increase Since June 2021 Existing-home sales grew in November, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Sales advanced in three major U.S. regions and remained steady in the West. Year-over-year, sales climbed in all four regions. Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – improved 4.8% from October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.15 million in November. Year-over-year, sales bounced 6.1% (up from 3.91 million in November 2023). ... Total housing inventory registered at the end of November was 1.33 million units, down 2.9% from October but up 17.7% from one year ago (1.13 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 3.8-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 4.2 months in October but up from 3.5 months in November 2023. This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994. Sales in November (4.15 million SAAR) were up 4.8% from the previous month and were 6.1% above the November 2023 sales rate. This was the second year-over-year increase since July 2021. Last month was the first. The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes. According to the NAR, inventory decreased to 1.33 million in November from 1.37 million the previous month. Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer. The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory. Inventory was up 17.7% year-over-year (blue) in November compared to November 2023. Months of supply (red) decreased to 3.8 months in November from 4.2 months the previous month. The sales rate was above the consensus forecast.

Newsletter: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in November -- Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in November Excerpt: The sales rate was above the consensus forecast (but close to housing economist Tom Lawler’s estimate). ... Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2023 and 2024. Sales increased 6.1% year-over-year compared to November 2023. ... On an NSA basis, sales are down 1.5% year-to-date compared to 2023.

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million Annual Rate in November - From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Privately-owned housing starts in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,289,000. This is 1.8 percent below the revised October estimate of 1,312,000 and is 14.6 percent below the November 2023 rate of 1,510,000. Single-family housing starts in November were at a rate of 1,011,000; this is 6.4 percent above the revised October figure of 950,000. The November rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 264,000. Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,505,000. This is 6.1 percent above the revised October rate of 1,419,000, but is 0.2 percent below the November 2023 rate of 1,508,000. Single-family authorizations in November were at a rate of 972,000; this is 0.1 percent above the revised October figure of 971,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 481,000 in November. The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000. Multi-family starts (blue, 2+ units) decreased month-over-month in November. Multi-family starts were down 27.6% year-over-year. Single-family starts (red) increased in November and were down 10.2% year-over-year. The second graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968. This shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then the eventual recovery - and the recent collapse and recovery in single-family starts. Total housing starts in November were below expectations, however, starts in September and October were revised up, combined.

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million Annual Rate in November - Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million Annual Rate in November A brief excerpt: Total housing starts in November were below expectations, however, starts in September and October were revised up slightly, combined. The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2023 (blue) and 2024 (red). Total starts were down 14.6% in November compared to November 2023. The YoY decrease in November total starts was a combination of further weakness in multi-family starts and a difficult comparison to starts in November 2023. Single family starts have been up year-over-year in 13 of the last 17 months, whereas multi-family has been up year-over-year in only 2 of last 18 months. Year-to-date (YTD), total starts are down 4.3% compared to the same period in 2023. Single family starts are up 7.2% YTD, and multi-family down 30.1% YTD.

NAHB: Builder Confidence Unchanged in December- The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 46, unchanged from 46 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.
From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Moves Higher as Election Uncertainty is Lifted - Builder sentiment held steady to end the year as high home prices and mortgage rates offset renewed hope about a better regulatory business climate in 2025. Along those lines, builders expressed increased optimism for higher sales expectations in the next months. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 46 in December, the same reading as last month, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. “While builders are expressing concerns that high interest rates, elevated construction costs and a lack of buildable lots continue to act as headwinds, they are also anticipating future regulatory relief in the aftermath of the election,” said NAHB Chairman Carl Harris, a custom home builder from Wichita, Kan. “This is reflected in the fact that future sales expectations have increased to a nearly three-year high.” “NAHB is forecasting additional interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in 2025, but with inflation pressures still present, we have reduced that forecast from 100 basis points to 75 basis points for the federal funds rate,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Concerns over inflation risks in 2025 will keep long-term interest rates, like mortgage rates, near current levels with mortgage rates remaining above 6%.” The latest HMI survey also revealed that 31% of builders cut home prices in December, unchanged from November. Meanwhile, the average price reduction was 5% in December, the same rate as in November. The use of sales incentives was 60% in December, also unchanged from November. ... The HMI index gauging current sales conditions held steady at 48 while the gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers posted a one-point decline to 31. The component measuring sales expectations in the next six months rose three points to 66, the highest level since April 2022. Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast increased two points to 57, the Midwest moved two points higher to 46, the South posted a two-point gain to 44 and the West fell one point to 40. This graph shows the NAHB index since Jan 1985. This was at the consensus forecast.

AIA: Architecture Billings "Flat" in November; Multi-family Billings Turn Slightly Positive - Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: ABI November 2024: Architecture firm billings remain flat Despite the AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score dipping slightly below 50 for the month, it remains close enough to that threshold to indicate that the share of firms that reported declining billings was essentially the same as the share that reported increasing billings. Although it would be better to see the majority of firms reporting growth, the fact that billings have returned to flat after declining for nearly two full years is an encouraging sign that conditions are improving for more firms. Inquiries into new work continued to grow steadily, and while the value of newly signed design contracts declined for the eighth consecutive month, the pace of that decline slowed this month. Business conditions continued to improve in the West and South regions of the country in November, where firm billings increased for the second consecutive month. Most notable was the strength of billings growth in the West, where the score was the highest it has been since mid-2022. Although billings continued to decline at firms located in the Northeast and Midwest, the pace of the decline slowed in both regions this month. There was significant improvement in business conditions at firms with a multifamily residential specialization in November as well, where they reported their first increase in billings since August 2022, at the end of the post-pandemic boom. In addition, billings increased for the second consecutive month at firms with an institutional specialization. While billings continued to decline at firms with a commercial/industrial specialization, the pace of the decline slowed significantly. ... The ABI score is a leading economic indicator of construction activity, providing an approximately nine-to-twelve-month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. The score is derived from a monthly survey of architecture firms that measures the change in the number of services provided to clients.
• Northeast (46.9); Midwest (48.1); South (50.0); West (54.3)
• Sector index breakdown: commercial/industrial (49.4); institutional (50.6); multifamily residential (50.8)
This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 49.7 in November, down from 50.3 in October. Anything below 50 indicates a decrease in demand for architects' services. This index has indicated contraction for 24 of the last 26 months. This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions. This index usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months, so this index suggests a slowdown in CRE investment into 2025. This was first positive score for multi-family since August 2022. This suggests we will see further weakness in multi-family starts, but a possible pickup in the 2nd half of 2025.

Hotels: Occupancy Rate increased Year-over-year - From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 7 December 0 The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year performance comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 7 December. ...
1-7 December 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023):
• Occupancy: 59.0% (+0.5%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$159.77 (+3.8%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$94.31 (+4.3%)
The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.The red line is for 2024, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2023. Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is above both last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2023 (Blue) - and will likely finish mostly unchanged year-over-year. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate has peaked for the fall business travel season and will decline seasonally through the holidays. This is a solid finish for 2024!

Retail Sales Increased 0.7% in November -- On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.7% from October to November (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.8 percent from November 2023. From the Census Bureau report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $724.6 billion, an increase of 0.7 percent from the previous month, and up 3.8 percent from November 2023. ... The September 2024 to October 2024 percent change was revised from up 0.4 percent to up 0.5 percent. This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). Retail sales ex-gasoline was up 0.7% in November. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993. Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 4.0% on a YoY basis. The change in sales in November were above expectations, and sales in September and October were revised up, combined.

Retail Sales Explode Higher Led by Autos and Nonstore Purchases – MishTalk - Consumers pulled out their credit cards in November. Let’s discuss the key numbers. According to the Census Department Advance Estimate, retail sales rose 0.7 percent in November. Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $724.6 billion, an increase of 0.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 3.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from November 2023. Total sales for the September 2024 through November 2024 period were up 2.9 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The September 2024 to October 2024 percent change was revised from up 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent) to up 0.5 percent (±0.1 percent). Retail trade sales were up 0.9 percent (±0.5 percent) from October 2024, and up 4.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from last year. Motor vehicle and parts dealers were up 6.5 percent (±1.8 percent) The key line above is “adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes.” These are nominal sales, not adjusted for inflation.Month-Over-Month Nominal Details:

• Retail Sales: +0.7%
• Excluding Motor Vehicles and Gasoline: +0.2%
• Motor Vehicles: +2.6%
• Food Stores: -0.2%
• Food Service: -0.4%
• Nonstore Merchants (e.g. Amazon): +1.8%
• Gas Stations: +0.1%

Motor vehicles and Nonstore sales account for all of the gain. Inflation-adjusted sales put things in proper perspective. However, the last three months are undoubtedly hot at 0.9%, 0.5%, and 0.7% respectively.This puts another spotlight on Fed rate cuts. Last month I said “Don’t be surprised if the Fed starts signaling no cut in December. Any additional strong data might do that.” What a hoot on myself. The odds of a rate cut tomorrow are 95% with more rate cuts still priced in for January and March of 2025. Of course, the bond market might be pricing in a recession or other economic weakness. Then again, if that was the case, yields on the long end would not be rising. This is not a data dependent Fed. In fact, there has not been a data dependent Fed for decades. The Fed announces an intent and sticks with it, data be damned, time and time again except for emergency rate cuts. It’s important to note that motor vehicle sales are reported when cars are shipped to dealers, not when consumers actually buy them. This makes it difficult to distinguish what’s going on. One possibility is channel stuffing. By that I mean manufacturers cramming more cars than people are buying down dealers’ throats. A second possibility is a mad scramble by consumers to buy cars while they can still get a $7,500 EV tax credit.

Industrial Production Decreased 0.1% in November - Earlier from the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) moved down 0.1 percent in November after declining 0.4 percent in October. In November, manufacturing output rose 0.2 percent, boosted by a 3.5 percent increase in the index for motor vehicles and parts. The indexes for mining and utilities fell 0.9 percent and 1.3 percent, respectively. At 102.0 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in November was 0.9 percent below its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization stepped down to 76.8 percent in November, a rate that is 2.9 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average. This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, but below the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). Capacity utilization at 76.8% is 2.9% below the average from 1972 to 2023. This was below consensus expectations. The second graph shows industrial production since 1967. Industrial production decreased to 102.0. This is above the pre-pandemic level. Industrial production was below consensus expectations.

The Fed Releases Another Grim Set of US Industrial Production Numbers – Industrial production is below the January 2008 level. Manufacturing is even more abysmal. The Fed’s Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report for November provides another set of sobering statistics.

• Industrial production (IP) moved down 0.1 percent in November after declining 0.4 percent in October.
• In November, manufacturing output rose 0.2 percent, boosted by a 3.5 percent increase in the index for motor vehicles and parts.
• The indexes for mining and utilities fell 0.9 percent and 1.3 percent, respectively.
• At 102.0 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in November was 0.9 percent below its year-earlier level.
• Capacity utilization stepped down to 76.8 percent in November, a rate that is 2.9 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average.

It’s not easy to make sense of monthly numbers due to extreme swings month-to-month especially in autos and aircraft.In October, November, and December, Aircraft production is down 11.3 percent, 11.3 percent, and another 4.4 percent in December.The last four months for motor vehicles and parts are -9.9%, +9.1%, -5.4%, and +3.5% in December. Year-Over-Year IP Numbers:

• Industrial Production: -0.9 Percent
• Manufacturing: -0.9 Percent
• Motor Vehicles and Parts: -3.5 Percent
• Aircraft and Parts: -23.5 Percent
• Consumer Durable Goods: -4.3 Percent
• Manufacturing Durable Goods: -9.6 Percent

The Inflation Reduction Act, cleverly timed to keep things humming through through the election, helped pad demand for manufacturing durable goods, now crashing.

Amazon workers to strike at multiple US warehouses during busy holiday season (Reuters) - Thousands of Amazon workers will walk off the job on Thursday morning, in the crucial final days of the holiday season, after union officials said the retailer failed to come to the bargaining table to negotiate contracts. The strike is a challenge to Amazon's operations as it races to fulfill orders during its busiest season of the year, although union-represented facilities represent only about 1% of Amazon's hourly workforce. In the New York City area, for example, the company has multiple warehouses and smaller delivery depots. The International Brotherhood of Teamsters said unionized workers at facilities in New York City; Skokie, Illinois; Atlanta, San Francisco and southern California will join the picket line to seek contracts guaranteeing better wages and work conditions. The Teamsters union has said it represents about 10,000 workers at 10 of the company's U.S. facilities. Workers at seven of those facilities will walk out on Thursday, the Teamsters said. A spokesperson for Amazon said the Teamsters union had for more than a year claimed to represent thousands of Amazon employees and drivers. "They don’t, and this is another attempt to push a false narrative," said spokesperson Kelly Nantel. "The truth is that the Teamsters have actively threatened, intimidated, and attempted to coerce Amazon employees and third-party drivers to join them, which is illegal and is the subject of multiple pending unfair labor practice charges against the union, Nantel added. Teamsters did not immediately respond to an emailed request for comment. The union had given Amazon a deadline of Sunday to begin negotiations, and workers at facilities voted recently to authorize a strike. Teamsters local unions are also putting up picket lines at hundreds of Amazon Fulfillment Centers nationwide, the union said in a statement on Wednesday. Observers said Amazon is unlikely to come to the table to bargain, calculating it could open the door to additional union actions. “Amazon clearly has developed a strategy of ignoring their workers’ rights to collectively organize and negotiate,” said Benjamin Sachs, a Harvard Law School professor of labor and industry. He noted that more than two years after workers at a Staten Island warehouse became the first in the United States to vote to unionize, Amazon still has not recognized the group.

Census: The U.S. population grew by nearly 1.0% between 2023 and 2024 -- From the Census Bureau: Net International Migration Drives Highest U.S. Population Growth in Decades - The U.S. population grew by nearly 1.0% between 2023 and 2024, according to the new Vintage 2024 population estimates released today by the U.S. Census Bureau. As the nation’s population surpasses 340 million, this is the fastest annual population growth the nation has seen since 2001 — a notable increase from the record low growth rate of 0.2% in 2021. The growth was primarily driven by rising net international migration. ... Natural increase also contributed to the population growth, as births outnumbered deaths by nearly 519,000 between 2023 and 2024. This marks an increase from the historic low in 2021 when natural increase was just over 146,000, but it was still well below the highs in prior decades.

Philly Tow Company Owner Sentenced For $8.2 Million Catalytic Converter Theft Ring -A family at the center of a catalytic converter theft ring has been sentenced for "operating a multi-million-dollar catalytic converter theft ring throughout the Philadelphia region", according to authorities and a new report from Patch.A Philadelphia towing company owner was exposed as the ringleader of a catalytic converter theft ring, busted in June 2023 after a yearlong investigation, according to Bucks County prosecutors.Six family members, including some from Montgomery County, were sentenced Monday. Authorities revealed TDI Towing was "likely involved in the buying and reselling of over 25,000 likely stolen catalytic converters," according to NBC. The Patch report says that "TDI employees were paid an average of $300 per catalytic converter, for a total of nearly $8.2 million during the three years." A joint investigation by Bucks County detectives and over 30 local, state, and federal agencies uncovered the ring. Michael Williams, owner of TDI Towing in Philadelphia, along with his wife, three sons-in-law, and her sister, were sentenced Monday. In June, five pleaded guilty, while one entered a no-contest plea.Michael Williams received 2.5 to 5 years in state prison and probation, while his accomplices, including Bruce, Schwartz, Hopkins, and Lisa Davalos, were sentenced to county jail terms ranging from 90 days to 23 months, and Deborah Davalos received two years of probation.“I think we got to see on the videos who [Williams] was when he didn’t know he was being recorded,” said Prosecutor Edward Furman. “Our position was that he was preying on people that were in the throes of addiction. He knew that they were looking for cheap, easy money and he was their source of it.” Coley Reynolds, Williams's defense attorney, commented to NBC: “Michael was a person who was raised a certain way, wanted to take care of his friends, wanted to take care of his community. I’m not saying that led to these offenses, but certainly we thought it should have been more of a consideration to the court.” Williams will have to pay more than $100,000 in restitution.

1,100 books purged from public school libraries in Tennessee as districts comply with the reactionary Age-Appropriate Materials Act Last week Knox County Schools in Tennessee joined three other school districts in the state at the forefront of compliance with the Age-Appropriate Materials Act (AAMA) and its reactionary book banning provisions. The County published a list of 48 books to be removed from school library shelves. The list, made available to the public through local news outlets, is an eclectic collection ranging from beloved childhood classics such as In the Night Kitchen by Maurice Sendak and A Light in the Attic by Shel Silverstein and high school staples Slaughterhouse-Five by Kurt Vonnegut and The Bluest Eye by Toni Morrison, to young adult “romantasy” by Sarah J. Maas. Knox County is the third-most populous county in Tennessee. Its county seat is Knoxville, the home of the main campus of the University of Tennessee. Neither the list nor the rationales for why the books are on it have been made public by the school district or the Tennessee General Assembly. The AAMA Chapter 782 that went into effect last July requires public schools in Tennessee to remove books that contain content depicting nudity, sexual activity or excessive violence from their libraries. The Tennessee Association of School Librarians (TASL) estimates that at least 1,100 books have been purged from public schools in Tennessee since the General Assembly passed the amendment that provided the criteria for what is considered “suitable for the age and maturity levels” of students that was missing in the 2022 AAMA. According to a survey of school librarians conducted by TASL in October, there is a great deal of confusion (and no doubt opposition) throughout the state in regard to compliance. Some districts, like Knox County Schools, are pre-emptively removing books before a complaint has been made. In other cases, school board members and district officials aren’t even reading the books before voting to have them removed. In general, spinelessness and accommodation to the extreme right abound. Wilson County’s list of nearly 400 banned books is being used by other school systems to purge their libraries. Located just east of Nashville and only the 12th largest district in the state, Wilson County is being used as the model for school leaders to forgo their own review processes and simply pull titles by Dr. Seuss, Judy Blume, Margaret Atwood and Stephen King, among others, from their shelves. “If Wilson County’s list is being shared around, and district leaders see it as a cheat sheet so that they don’t have to conduct their own reviews, it’s creating an unofficial statewide book ban list,” Lindsey Kimery, a TASL leader, told Chalkbeat. The AAMA Chapter 782 mandates that Local Education Agencies (LEAs) must publish their library collections online and include updated policies for reviewing library materials. These policies must detail a process for handling feedback from students, parents, or school employees. When feedback is submitted, the school board is required to review the material in question to determine if it aligns with the school’s mission and is suitable for the intended age group. If the material is found to be “inappropriate,” it must be removed from the library collection. Each of the 93 schools in the Knox County Schools system lists their library collections on their school websites; however, neither the policies for reviewing materials nor details of the stakeholder feedback process can be found on either the district or school websites. Last April, Knox County Schools formed school library councils as part of an effort to comply with the AAMA. The councils consist of librarians, principals, classroom teachers, counselors and parents. Another committee, the Sensitive Title Review Committee, will focus on evaluating “sensitive titles” for elementary, middle and high schools. “Our existing processes, while they have been robust, they have been reactive,” Sarah Searles Knox County Schools’ academic resources supervisor told the Knox County School Board. “They’ve waited for concerns to come in.” At no point does Searles question the undemocratic nature of the new processes instigated by ultra-right wing groups like Moms for Liberty whose motive is to attack First Amendment freedoms in public schools throughout the country while pushing a school choice agenda. Tennessee’s AAMA was structured to reduce the likelihood of direct legal conflicts with First Amendment protections by attempting to circumvent prohibitions on viewpoint-based censorship established by landmark cases such as Board of Education v. Pico (1982), which determined that public schools could not remove books from libraries simply because they disagreed with the ideas or viewpoints expressed.

School smartphone ban results in better sleep and improved mood - University of York -- Psychologists at the University of York, who tested the impact that smartphones have on children’s behaviour for a new two-part documentary series for Channel 4, found that a ban in school impacted positively on sleep and mood.Swiped: The School that Banned Smartphones, hosted by Matt and Emma Willis, is based at The Stanway School in Colchester, and challenged a group of Year 8 pupils to give up their smartphones completely for 21 days. The experiment, led by Professor Lisa Henderson and Dr Emma Sullivan from the University, saw pupils undergo a series of tests, with experts monitoring their behavioural changes throughout the period, and repeating the tests at the end of the three weeks to conclude what effects giving up your phone really does have on your brain including sleep, wellbeing and cognition.They found that students in the phone ban group experienced notable improvements in their sleep. On average, they were falling asleep 20 minutes faster than before the ban, and reported getting a full hour of extra rest each night. Children in the phone ban group also went to bed on average, 50 minutes earlier during the phone ban weeks compared to the week before the phone ban, for example, bedtime was 10:12 pm one-week post ban, and 11:02 pm the week before the ban. These changes, which were self-reported, were also verified with sleep-tracking devices.Better sleep also appeared to coincide with a boost in mood. Pupils in the phone ban group reported a 17% reduction in feelings related to depression and an 18% reduction in feelings related to anxiety, feeling generally less upset and nervous. Pupils who slept better even showed changes in their heart rate that signalled improved well being. Professor Lisa Henderson, from the University’s Department of Psychology, said: “This experiment incorporated a much longer abstinence period than previous studies, allowing us to see how a smartphone ban in school could impact on sleep, wellbeing, cognitive abilities, and alertness.“The results showed that a smartphone ban in children under the age of 14 could have a positive impact on sleep, and connected to improved sleep, a boost in overall mood.”Interestingly, the research didn’t show significant improvements in cognitive ability; the phone ban group showed a modest 3% boost in working memory, and there were no improvements in sustained attention. Researchers suggest that these results might mean that changes in cognitive ability could take longer than the study period of 21 days to materialise.

School shooting in Madison, Wisconsin: 2 killed, multiple injuries - Multiple injuries and at least two deaths are reported in a shooting at a Wisconsin Christian school, authorities said Monday. Officers responded to an active shooter call around 10:57 a.m. at Abundant Life Christian School, and multiple officers began administering lifesaving care to those injured inside the school. Madison Police Chief Shon Barnes, a former teacher himself, confirmed there is nothing to suggest that Abundant Life had a history of violence or concern. A law enforcement official told CNN that the suspect was a female student. Barnes said the juvenile suspect is deceased, and no officers fired their weapons upon entering the school. The Associated Press reported the suspect was 17 years old. “What we know is that a total of about seven persons were transported from the scene to area hospitals for treatment,” Barnes said. “We know that at least three people have lost their lives, including the juvenile person.” Police initially said at least three people were dead, then as many as four plus the shooter, then revised that number back down. A handgun was recovered at the school. Barnes said police have been in contact with the shooter’s family and they are cooperating with the investigation. Barnes said he doesn’t know “why” the suspect carried out the shooting but said an investigation is underway. He confirmed that the crime scene was confined to one area of the school. Two others were killed in the shooting, including one teacher and one teenage student. Two students were transported to a hospital in critical condition with life-threatening injuries. Four other students were transported to a separate hospital with non-life-threatening injuries. “These are just the physical injuries that we know about,” Barnes said, noting the shooting occurred during the school day and there will likely be mental injuries that the community deals with for a “very long time.”

Yet again, horror in an American school: Two dead, six injured in Madison, Wisconsin shooting --Once again, horror has unfolded in an American school, as two people were killed and multiple others injured in a mass shooting Monday morning at Abundant Life Christian School in Madison, Wisconsin, the state capital. As of this writing, Madison Police Chief Shon Barnes has confirmed that a student and a teacher were killed. Six students were injured—two in critical condition with life-threatening injuries, while four have sustained non-life-threatening wounds. According to CNN, this marks the 83rd school shooting of 2024, surpassing 2023 for the most school shootings in a single year since tracking began in 2008. Details remain limited, but here is what is known: Before 11 a.m. on Monday, police responded to reports of an active shooter at the school. Officers discovered a teenager dead inside. Madison police have not released information about the teen’s age or gender but confirmed the individual was a student at the school. A handgun was recovered at the scene. The shooting occurred in an isolated area, and, apart from the teacher, those killed and injured belonged to the same age group. One of the victims was pronounced dead at the scene, along with the shooter, who was also found deceased at the school. In May, a separate incident occurred at Mount Horeb Middle School, located 25 miles west of Madison, where a 14-year-old student brought a Ruger .177-caliber pellet rifle to school. The student allegedly pointed the weapon at officers and was killed after being instructed to drop it. While the Madison Police Department and major news outlets have yet to confirm the shooter’s identity, information posted online points to 15-year-old Samantha Rupnow, a student at Abundant Life. According to reports circulating online, primarily from X user and Reduxx.info reporter @Slatzism, Rupnow allegedly published a manifesto titled “War Against Humanity.” Key details of the manifesto include:

• Rupnow describes a toxic and abusive relationship with her parents, referring to them as “scum.”
• She claims her family did not love or want her, stating she felt like the “wrong child” in her family.
• She reveals that she had long considered suicide but decided a school shooting was “better for evolution rather than just one stupid boring suicide.”
• She expresses admiration for Pekka Eric Auvinen, the perpetrator of the Jokela High School massacre in Finland on November 7, 2007; Arda Küçükyetim, a Turkish neo-Nazi who stabbed five people—leaving two critically injured—in Eskişehir, Turkey, in August of this year; and Vladislav Roslyakov, who carried out the Kerch Polytechnic College massacre in Crimea on October 17, 2018, killing 20 people and wounding 67 others before taking his own life.
• She offers praise for Küçükyetim, stating that he was an inspiration to her. She calls him “an ultimate saint.” Küçükyetim was a member of fascist online forum caller Terrorgram where followers were told that by “committing an attack in furtherance of white supremacist accelerationism,” they would become saints.
• She claims to have acquired weapons for the attack through “lies, manipulation, and my father’s stupidity.”

In a published photo, Rupnow is seen wearing a KMFDM t-shirt in a selfie, a detail that echoes the Columbine High School massacre. Following Columbine, it was revealed that shooter Eric Harris had posted lyrics from KMFDM songs—such as “Son of a Gun,” “Stray Bullet,” and “Waste”—on his website. Notably, the date of the Columbine massacre, April 20, coincided with both the release of KMFDM’s album Adios and the birthday of Adolf Hitler. Rupnow’s case paints a chilling portrait of a deeply pessimistic, racist and fascistic worldview. That a 15-year-old could develop such a catastrophic outlook speaks more to the society around her than to her troubled mind alone. The tragedy at Abundant Life Christian School is not an isolated incident but a reflection of a social order unraveling under the weight of its contradictions. From classrooms to war zones, the American ruling class oversees the same systemic forces of capitalist inequality and violence at home and abroad. The violence abroad and the dysfunction within American society are inseparable. The brutality of American imperialism is mirrored in its domestic policies, with devastating social consequences. The widening canyon of inequality is exemplified by the fact that Elon Musk controls $400 billion, while millions of Americans sink further into debt just to put food on the table. Billions are funneled into the NATO-Russia war in Ukraine, where fascist forces have been actively promoted, pushing the world to the brink of a new nuclear world war. Meanwhile over a million Americans have died during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, victims of a profit-driven system that prioritizes corporate interests over public health.

Natalie Rupnow's Reported Manifesto: What We Know - A manifesto reportedly written by Natalie Rupnow, the 15-year-old student who opened fire inside the Abundant Life Christian School in Wisconsin on Monday, is circulating on social media. Madison Police Chief Shon Barnes said authorities are aware of the document, but have been unable to verify its authenticity. "We haven't been able to verify that it's authentic. We're certainly aware that it's been posted and the person who posted it alleged to have a connection with the victim," Barnes said.He said authorities have not located the person who posted it, but have shared information with the FBI. The X, formerly Twitter, user who posted the manifesto on their account said they had received it from Rupnow's boyfriend. Newsweek has contacted the user for comment via direct message.The author identified themselves as Samantha Rupnow, according to screenshots posted on X. Police have said Rupnow went by that name.In the manifesto, called "War Against Humanity," the author writes that they have "grown to hate people, and society" and calls their parents "scum." The author also writes that they acquired weapons "by lies and manipulation, and my father's stupidity" and describes wanting to die by suicide, but feeling like carrying out a shooting was "better for evolution rather than just one stupid boring suicide."Rupnow was identified as the shooter during a press conference on Monday night.She was found with a self-inflicted gunshot when officers arrived at the school and died en route to a hospital, Barnes said. She was a student at the school, which has about 400 students from kindergarten through 12th grade. The manifesto—if authentic—could provide insight into the shooter's motive. Barnes had said on Monday that a motive for the shooting was not immediately known and that it was not clear if the victims were targeted. The shooting is the latest at a school in the U.S. and comes less than two weeks after a shooter opened fire at a Christian school in California. There have been at least 200 incidents of gunfire on school grounds this year, resulting in 58 deaths, according to Everytown for Gun Safety. Particularly deadly shootings have set off debates about gun control and how to keep schools safe, but have done little to impact national gun laws.Officers arrived at the school at around 11 a.m. on Monday in response to a second-grade student's 911 call, Barnes said.A teacher and another teenager were killed in the shooting at a study hall at the school. Rupnow also wounded six others, including two students who were in critical condition, police said. A teacher and three other students were taken to a hospital with less serious injuries, and two of them were later discharged.

Wisconsin shooter was new student at Christian school where her victims had deep ties — The Wisconsin 15-year-old who shot and killed a teacher and a fellow student Monday was only in her first semester at the school but seemed to be settling in, a school official said Thursday as families of the victims remembered them as people of faith who had deep connections within the Christian school. Abundant Life Christian School student Rubi Patricia Vergara, 14, of Madison and teacher Erin West, 42, of DeForest were killed Monday. Two other students who were shot remained hospitalized Thursday in critical condition. Barbara Wiers, the school’s director for elementary and communications, told The Associated Press that the attack lasted eight minutes — shorter than the school’s regular snack break. She said the community’s faith and connection to one another has sustained them as they struggle with the possibility that the shooter’s motive might remain undetermined. This was Rupnow’s first semester at ALCS, Wiers said. The school was working with her family on attendance, but teachers had no significant concerns, she said.“I pray for this family because right now they’ve lost a daughter and they are wounded,” she said. “And they’re dealing with the fact that their daughter did this terrible thing and hurt these other people. It has to be one of the loneliest, bitterest places to be.” Vergara’s funeral is set for Saturday at City Church, which is adjacent to the school, and West’s funeral is Monday at Doxa Church in Madison, where she was a member, according to obituaries published Wednesday and Thursday.

Biden commutes sentence of judge jailed in Pennsylvania “kids for cash” scandal -- On December 12, lame-duck President Joe Biden directly pardoned 39 people and commuted the sentences of roughly 1500 more. Among those receiving an executive commutation is disgraced former judge Michael Conahan, who was serving time for his involvement in the “kids for cash” scandal that took place in Luzerne County, Pennsylvania in the early 2000s. Conahan and his co-conspirator, former judge Mark Ciavarella, collected $2.8 million in kickbacks between 2002-2008 by sending children to juvenile correctional facilities. In effect, Conahan and Ciavarella used their judgeships to sell children to for-profit jails. The scheme took root back in 2000, when one of Conahan’s friends, Robert Powell, expressed interest in opening a private detention center. Ciavarella, another crony, was then brought into the loop as the sentencing judge in juvenile court. Conahan next secured the help of a real estate developer, Robert Mericle, who would help funnel money back to himself and to Ciavarella. Ultimately, two juvenile prisons opened in the judges’ plot, the grossly misnamed PA Child Care and the Western PA Child Care. In order to make this scheme more lucrative, Conahan, who had control of the court’s budget, stopped financing publicly-owned county juvenile facilities, forcing them to close. This compelled the county to find alternative facilities to house kids caught up in the juvenile detention system. Using the influence of his office, Conahan, with the help of Mericle, induced Luzerne County to sign exclusive contracts ensuring that any children sent to juvenile detention centers would be specifically sent to the two centers owned and operated by Conahan’s friends, Powell and Mericle. Payment by the county to facilities was based on a per diem basis—the more kids, the more days they spent in prison, the more money the prisons raked in. The scheme was abetted by the fact that most defendants could not afford legal counsel and were unable to adequately defend themselves in court, according to findings of the Philadelphia-based Juvenile Law Center, which later brought a class-action lawsuit on behalf of the children and their families. The final piece of the puzzle came in the form of the kickback to the sentencing judges. Mericle, the primary recipient of the funding from the state and county, would give some of this money “back” to Conahan and Ciavarella as “finder’s fees.” The crooked judges, in sum, had a vested interest in sentencing as many kids as possible to the longest sentences they could. This authority they used with abandon, jailing literally thousands of children under “tough on crime” and “zero tolerance” sentencing policies—and in the process damaging and ruining young lives. Some of the judges’ punishments included: jailing a 13-year-old to a facility for several days after he failed to appear in court as a witness for a hearing on a fight involving other children; sending a 15-year-old to a camp for making fun of an assistant principal on the social media app MySpace; and sending a 17-year-old to a facility, plus five months of mandatory boot-camp, for stealing DVDs at a Walmart. One particularly tragic case involved 17 year-old Edward Kenzakoski, who was sentenced to several months of detention at one of the facilities for having a drug pipe in his possession. Kenzakoski was particularly distressed by his detention. He would later commit suicide as a result of the effects of his confinement. By 2009, suspicion had arisen regarding Conahan and Ciavarella. Conahan was charged with racketeering, fraud, and money laundering while Ciavarella was also charged with the same offenses along with tax violation, extortion, and bribery. In 2011, Conahan was sentenced to 17.5 years in federal prison and was ordered to pay $900,000 in restitution and fines, while Ciavarella was sentenced to 28 years in federal prison. That Conahan had his sentence commuted by Biden demonstrates the bankruptcy of his administration and the rottenness of the political establishment. Conahan and Ciavarella are registered Democrats and have close connections to state and local officials within the Pennsylvania Democratic Party—perhaps the state party most loyal to Biden, who was born in Scranton just north of Luzerne County. Families and survivors expressed outrage at Biden’s act. “I am shocked and I am hurt,” Sandy Fonzo, the mother of Edward Kenzakoski, told the Citizens’ Voice. “Conahan’s actions destroyed families, including mine, and my son’s death is a tragic reminder of the consequences of his abuse of power. This pardon feels like an injustice for all of us who still suffer. Right now I am processing and doing the best I can to cope with the pain that this has brought back.” Amanda Lorah was 14 when she was unjustly jailed. “It’s a big slap in the face for us once again,” Lorah told a local news station. “We had … time taken away from us. We had no one to talk to, but now we’re talking about the president of the United States to do this. What about all of us?”

Dozens of Dallas, Texas area schools slated for closure -Dozens of campuses are slated to shutter in North Texas amid budget shortfalls. Coppell, Lewisville, Plano and Richardson Independent School Districts, all major suburbs in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, are citing budget shortfalls and declining enrollment. This is part of a nationwide trend of school closures including in California schools, Illinois, Wisconsin, Colorado and elsewhere. This is the list of specific closures:

• Coppell ISD is shuttering Pinkerton elementary. The district has a shortfall of $7.5 million to $8.7 million for fiscal year 2024-25, with an anticipated budget shortfall of $18 million by FY 2027-28 according to current projections.
• Lewisville ISD is closing Creekside, Garden Ridge, Highland Village, B.B. Owen and Polser elementary schools.
• Plano ISD is closing Davis and Forman elementary schools, as well as Armstrong and Carpenter middle schools. The district is operating with a $24 million budget shortfall.
• Richardson ISD is closing Greenwood Hills, Springridge, Spring Valley and Thurgood Marshall elementary schools. Richardson is facing a $28 million budget shortfall, with the closing of the schools being a part of the broader “Project RightSize” austerity plan.

Parents and students have showed up to board meetings to voice their opposition to the moves. The Dallas Morning News has reported that more North Texas school closures are “possible.”The number of jobs to be cut was not noted in the corporate media and could not be found in the board meetings, though hundreds, if not thousands, of workers are likely to be affected. In addition to teachers, janitors, cafeteria workers, librarians and others will lose their jobs as well, should these schools close.The local teachers unions have done nothing to mobilize opposition to the closures. Alliance AFT, the local American Federation of Teachers affiliate which covers Allen, Frisco, Garland, Plano and Richardson, has made no public announcements on the school closures on their website or on social media despite the fact that these closures will mean the loss of their own members’ jobs.

Explosive anger mounts against Acero school closures in Chicago: “We are not items to be counted as dollar signs!” -- On Wednesday, educators, families and students packed the gym at Idar Elementary School during the Acero Schools Board meeting to denounce the decision by the charter operator to close seven schools in Chicago serving predominantly working class and immigrant Latino families. The closures at Acero are part of a wave of threatened closures all over the US, including scores in Milwaukee, Seattle, San Francisco and almost 100 more in the Chicago Public Schools (CPS), according to a list leaked last month in the midst of negotiations between CPS and the Chicago Teachers Union (CTU). In spite of this, the CTU, which is allied with Democratic Mayor Brandon Johnson’s administration, has refused to organize a joint struggle of Acero and CPS teachers. Instead, they are keeping CPS teachers on the job without a contract, while they work behind the scenes to hash out a deal which meets none of their demands.The meeting was Acero’s first public board meeting since the announcement in October that it would be closing seven of its 15 schools at the end of the school year.Yielding their time to move immediately to public comment, the wealthy, well-connected Acero executives and board members had nothing to say to the teachers and families whose schools they are closing. During public comments, educators, parents, and elementary, middle and high school students gave voice to the deep-seated recognition within the working class of the need to defend public education as a social right. In opposition to the social arson represented by the attacks on schools, Luis Delgado, a CPS high school student, spoke powerfully against the threatened closures of the seven Acero schools, including Acero-Santiago, where he graduated and where he was elected student council president. Delgado said: Rather than expressing my sadness over the potential closure, I feel an overwhelming sense of anger. I’m furious about the system that has let us down, of the Acero Board that has made this decision, and everyone who contributed to this reckless outcome. You made promises of love, trust and support, yet you exchange those ideals for hate and fear. …We need answers. Why did you choose to take this extreme step? What led you to break the trust of so many faithful students, educators and parents? Why did you see us merely as profit rather than individuals with dreams and aspirations? We are not items to be counted as dollar signs! That is an unacceptable way to treat the 2,000 students who call their schools home, the 270 educators who are committed to shaping our futures, and the 4,000 parents who every day work hard to support us.Shame on all of you, each and every one of you who made this reckless decision! We will continue to fight for our schools! Parents of students gave moving testimonies of the vital role that public education plays in the lives of the working class and the social hatred of the parasitic layer typified by the Acero executives and board members.

Affirmative Action fight moves to military academies - The front lines for the fight around affirmative action has moved to military academies after the Supreme Court banned the practice at most universities in 2023. Advocates for ending race-conscious admissions are leaning into military schools, but there are reasons to think their efforts will be challenged for a host of different reasons. One factor is the unique role the military plays in American life, and the need for an officer corps that is reflective of the country. President-elect Trump may also be a factor. “It’s really hard to figure out what the outcome is going to be” for the new affirmative action cases “because people do treat the military differently,” said Marybeth Gasman, executive director for Rutgers University’s Center for Minority Serving Institutions. “I think the Supreme Court is really stacked in favor of what Trump believes is necessary, and he tries to portray himself as a very pro-military person, so that could play a factor,” she added. Students for Fair Admissions (SFFA), the group that succeeded at eliminating affirmative action in all public and private universities in 2023, has set its sights on military academies. It is targeting both the Naval Academy and the Air Force Academy, but is running into roadblocks in lower courts. U.S. Senior District Judge Richard Bennett ruled in Maryland this month that the Naval Academy could keep its race-conscious admissions, saying the school has a “compelling national security interest in a diverse officer corps.” “Specifically, the Academy has tied its use of race to the realization of an officer corps that represents the country it protects and the people it leads,” Bennett wrote. “The Academy has proven that this national security interest is indeed measurable and that its admissions program is narrowly tailored to meet that interest.” SFFA has already appealed the ruling and started another lawsuit against the Air Force Academy in Colorado. It is likely more of these lawsuits could pop up against other military schools such as West Point. Bennett found affirmative action at the military school is “informed by the military specific history of racial discrimination and racial tensions within the military, as well as how that stripe affected military performance,” said Michaele Turnage Young, senior counsel and co-manager of the Equal Protection Initiative at the Legal Defense Fund. “So, the court was very deferential to the military’s judgment that if they weren’t able to assemble a diverse officer corps, that that could lead to mission failure and also could lead to a loss of life,” she said. “So, I imagine people would understand that the issues in the case involving the military are rising in different contexts, because now you’re talking about a service academy, and you’re not talking about a civilian university. You’re talking about an institution that is charged with preparing our armed forces to be effective, and so, there are kind of different considerations at play.” The Supreme Court justices decided not to weigh in on affirmative action in military institutions in 2023 because it was not the issue before them in a case involving Harvard University. In striking down affirmative action at civilian institutions, Chief Justice John Roberts said the admission processes at the schools “lack sufficiently focused and measurable objectives warranting the use of race, unavoidably employ race in a negative manner, involve racial stereotyping, and lack meaningful end points.” The legal standard developing different rules for military institutions and other universities is infuriating advocates, along with liberal justices on the court. In her dissenting opinion, Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, the only African American liberal on the high court, slammed her conservative colleagues for splitting the decision between military and civilian schools. “The Court has come to rest on the bottom-line conclusion that racial diversity in higher education is only worth potentially preserving insofar as it might be needed to prepare Black Americans and other underrepresented minorities for success in the bunker, not the boardroom (a particularly awkward place to land, in light of the history the majority opts to ignore),” she wrote. While the court cases progress, some fear a trip back to the Supreme Court could end affirmative action permanently. “I think that, right now, the Supreme Court is stacked against affirmative action, and if Trump is able to appoint more judges, I think affirmative action will probably die. I don’t want it to die in these military academies, but I think overall it will probably die,” Gasman said.

New York University bans pro-Palestinian faculty and students The International Youth and Students for Social Equality (IYSSE) in New York and New Jersey condemns the police-state crackdown at New York University (NYU) directed against protesters opposed to the US-Israeli genocide in Gaza. We demand that the university’s bans on pro-Palestinian faculty and students be lifted immediately. On Thursday around 12:30 p.m., police arrested eight pro-Palestinian protesters at the main entrance to Bobst Library at NYU, including at least two NYU faculty members. That same afternoon, NYU emailed dozens of students to inform them they had been declared persona non grata (PNG), a status that deactivates their campus ID cards and bans them from campus buildings, for their participation in a pro-Palestinian sit-in at Bobst on Wednesday. Three faculty members were also declared PNG for their participation in these protests, including the two who were arrested. The banned faculty include sociology professor Andrew Ross, a member of NYU’s Faculty and Staff for Justice in Palestine (FSJP), and history professor Rebecca Karl, who was initially denied entrance to Bobst to teach her class on Thursday. All three of the banned faculty members are Jewish. The FSJP stated in a press release, “The faculty were told that the PNG order came from the Office of the Provost, Gigi Dopico, who later verbally confirmed the PNG status but said she had ‘no details’ on the reasons for it except that it was a ‘security issue’… After contacting the Provost, Professor Karl was escorted into the building to teach, although Campus Security Officer Karen Ortman continued to yell ‘She’s PNG!’ as this occurred.” The two protests at Bobst on Wednesday and Thursday were centered on demands that NYU disclose its investments in companies with ties to the US-Israeli genocide in Gaza. In the spring semester, university administrators promised student organizers that investment disclosures would be made available to students but rescinded the offer when students refused to disband their Gaza Solidarity Encampment outside NYU’s Paulson Center. On Wednesday, 13 protesters sat outside administrators’ offices on Bobst’s top floor while dozens more occupied Bobst’s main lobby from 3 to 8 p.m. At 4:45 p.m., protesters released an audio recording from the spring of NYU administrators promising to disclose NYU’s investments. On Thursday around 9 a.m., protesters set up a picket outside Bobst’s main entrance, including five students who blocked the entrance by linking their arms with PVC pipes. According to an update by NYU’s campus newspaper, the Washington Square News: NYU spokesperson John Beckman said the New York City Police Department “came to the scene” after demonstrators blocked Bobst library’s last open entrance at around noon, “ignoring the clear direction of Campus Safety officers and repeated attempts by university personnel to de-escalate the situation.” “The university rejects any claims that this is peaceful protest,” Beckman wrote in a statement to WSN. “Their harassing behavior disrupted our academic operations at a particularly critical moment in the semester (as finals start), ignored the rights of students who wish to study in the library, and interfered with safe passage into and out of a core academic building.”On the contrary, an independent reporter on Twitter/X posted video of the protesting students allowing people to leave the library and reported that NYU itself closed alternative entrances to the building just before the NYPD began arresting protesters.

Students and faculty protest layoffs at California State University system -- Students, lecturers and faculty at San Francisco State University (SF State) held a “funeral march” on campus Wednesday to protest the mass layoffs of lecturers planned for the 2025-2026 academic year. The layoffs are the product of major budget cuts in the broader California State University (CSU) system. The layoffs are being attributed to supposedly lower enrollment figures, which faculty and lecturers dispute. Many report full and growing class sizes, with any alleged decline in enrollment offset by a sharper decline in classes being offered. Claims of “lower enrollment” or “chronic absenteeism” are being utilized to justify defunding public education in districts across the country. The CSU system is the world’s largest four-year public university, including 23 campuses and seven off-campus centers with an enrollment of nearly half a million students and 55,000 employees. It faces disaster in the 2025-2026 budget—a deficit of between $400 to $800 million. This is nearly 10 percent of the operating budget, and it is projected the system will attempt to slash $400 million this upcoming academic year. The job cuts at SF State are just a portion of the layoffs which are underway across numerous campuses. According to the LAist, job cuts are also underway at CSU campuses in Chico, East Bay, Humboldt, Los Angeles, Monterey Bay, San Bernardino and Sonoma. The University of California system is also facing more than a $500 million budget gap next summer. With 295,000 students, they have already announced significant tuition hikes to out-of-state students, increasing costs from $48,000 to $53,000 per year. Meanwhile the budget for community colleges has a current deficit of $45 billion, to be followed in 2025-2026 by a $30 billion shortfall. Massive cuts are also underway in K-12 schools across America. Nearby Oakland Unified School District faces a $95 million deficit and plans on merging 10 schools. Santa Rosa City Schools has a $30 million shortfall and is planning to close at least four schools.

Biden abandons mass student debt cancellation plans amid GOP lawsuit - The Biden administration is officially withdrawing its sweeping proposals to cancel student debt for tens of millions of Americans, effectively closing the door on mass loan forgiveness in the waning days of Joe Biden’s presidency. The Education Department said in a notice Friday that it was rescinding two of its major pending proposals to cancel student debt, one of which was already preemptively blocked by a federal judge in a lawsuit brought by Republican attorneys general. The judge in that case, Matthew Schelp of the Eastern District of Missouri, a Trump appointee, had ordered the department to explain its plans for the rest of the Biden administration in court by Friday. In withdrawing the plans, the Education Department cited the “operational challenges” of implementing both rules and said the administration wants to use its remaining time to prioritize “helping at-risk borrowers return to repayment successfully.” Department officials also wrote that they maintained the legality of the plans, though the incoming Trump administration is likely to take a different view. POLITICO previously reported that Trump transition officials and allies have been exploring ways to quickly wind down Biden’s various student debt relief programs. The White House did not comment on the withdrawn proposals. The Education Department didn’t respond to a request for comment. The withdrawn proposals — which together contemplated some loan forgiveness for at least 38 million Americans — had been billed as Biden’s “Plan B” for wiping out large amounts of student debt after the Supreme Court in 2023 rejected his initial relief plan. In that 6-3 decision, conservative justices ruled that Biden could not use emergency powers tied to the Covid-19 pandemic to wipe out $10,000 or $20,000 of student debt for roughly 40 million borrowers. Biden vowed immediately after his loss at the Supreme Court to begin a rulemaking process to come up with alternative ways to cancel debt. The Education Department has since been working on those plans that are based on a long-standing provision of federal higher education law that says the Education secretary can waive, compromise, and settle debts. One of the proposals, released in April, would have forgiven the debt of roughly 30 million Americans who fit into certain categories, such as borrowers whose debt has ballooned because of interest, those who’ve carried debts for decades, and borrowers who missed out on existing relief programs.A second proposal, released in October, would have given the Education Department the power to discharge debts of borrowers it determined had experienced financial hardship, which it estimated could provide relief to some 8 million borrowers. The Biden administration has continued to announce batches of loan forgiveness to borrowers under changes it made to existing federal relief programs. On Friday, it announced another round of relief totaling $4.28 billion for 54,900 public service workers. Officials said that, in total, the administration has forgiven about $180 billion for nearly 5 million Americans.

Despite guidelines, few US children receiving flu antivirals - National guidelines recommend the use of antiviral drugs in children diagnosed with influenza, but only 30% of children and adolescents at higher risk for influenza complications were prescribed antivirals during outpatient visits, according to a study yesterday in Clinical Infectious Diseases.Notably, almost 37% of infants six months and younger—who are not yet eligible for flu vaccination—were not treated with antivirals when hospitalized for the flu.The findings were based on 1,213 children with lab-confirmed flu seen at seven pediatric medical centers in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)-funded New Vaccine Surveillance Network (NVSN) between December 1, 2016, and March 31, 2020. Cities included in the study were Cincinnati, Ohio; Houston, Texas; Kansas City, Missouri; Nashville, Tennessee; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania; Rochester, New York; and Seattle, Washington.The median age of patients with confirmed cases was 3.7 years. Most patients were boys (55.6%), had public insurance (64.3%), and did not receive antivirals prior to admission (89.9%), the authors said. In total, 652 children (53.8%) were treated with antivirals.Clinical testing was associated with antiviral use, but only 63.0% of children received clinical influenza testing. Of those, 67.4% received an antiviral. Among the 561 (46.2%) children who did not receive an antiviral, 263 (46.9%) were not clinically tested for influenza.Factors associated with higher odds of antiviral receipt included prehospitalization antiviral receipt (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 2.34; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.49 to 3.67) and intensive care unit admission (aOR 1.53; 95% CI, 1.02 to 2.29). Children who were immunocompromised due to cancer treatment or blood disorders were also more likely to receive antivirals.Patients had lower odds of receiving antivirals if symptoms lasted 2 or fewer days (aOR 0.40; 95% CI, 0.30 to 0.52). There was high variability of site-specific antiviral use, ranging from 26.2% to 73.7%.The authors noted that a 2015-16 flu season review found that pediatric hospital use of antivirals was 52%.“Our current analysis indicates that there was minimal change in the subsequent years; adherence to guidelines for antiviral use in hospitalized children remains suboptimal,” they wrote. “The reasons for lack of treatment of children hospitalized with symptomatic influenza illness are unclear.”In a press release on the study from Vanderbilt University Medical Center, study author James Antoon, MD, PhD, MPH, said, “Our findings of limited use of antivirals in hospitalized children with influenza illness is concerning. Use of these antivirals reduce how long children have symptoms and prevent influenza complication.”

Antibiotic use in older adults doesn't increase dementia risk, study finds -New research suggests antibiotic use in older adults is not associated with increased risk of dementia or cognitive decline.The findings, published today in the journal Neurology, are from a post hoc analysis of data from a clinical trial involving more than 13,000 healthy Australian adults aged 70 and older. In a follow-up over 5 years, the analysis found no increased risk of dementia or cognitive impairment among those who had taken antibiotics compared with those who hadn't, including those who had taken repeated courses of antibiotics, used them continuously, or used specific antibiotic classes.The study authors say the findings should reassure seniors."Given that older adults are more frequently prescribed antibiotics and are also at higher risk for cognitive decline, these findings offer reassurance about using these medications," co-lead author Andrew Chan, MD, MPH, of Harvard Medical School, said in a press release from the American Academy of Neurology, which publishes the journal. For the study, Chan and colleagues from the University of Iowa and Monash University in Australia analyzed antibiotic prescription data and cognitive test results from participants in the ASPREE (Aspirin in reducing events in the elderly) trial, which examined the health impacts of daily low-aspirin in more than 16,000 Australians aged 70 years and older. Launched in 2010, the trial was extended as an observational study in 2018 with patients who had not withdrawn or died.The researchers wanted to examine potential links between antibiotic use and dementia or cognitive impairment because animal studies have hinted that the impact of antibiotics, which can kill both pathogenic and beneficial bacteria, on bacterial diversity in the gut microbiome may affect cognitive function."Although some species begin to re-cover after antibiotic treatment, antibiotic-induced perturbance to the gut microbial communities can persist for months to up to 2 years," they wrote. "As gut dysbiosis has been implicated in the pathophysiology of cognitive impairment, it is hypothesized that high levels of cumulative antibiotic exposure may lead to cognitive decline." In addition, some observational studies have found early- and mid-life antibiotic use is associated with worse cognitive development or decline, respectively. But how antibiotic use later in life affects cognition has not been thoroughly investigated, the researchers said. A total of 13,571 participants were involved in the study, all of whom were dementia-free when they entered the ASPREE trial. Using prescription data from Australia's Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS), the researchers found that 8,481 participants (62.5%) had used any antibiotics at least once between trial enrollment and their second annual follow-up visit. The researchers assessed changes in participant cognitive function using a series of cognitive tests that evaluate global cognition, episodic memory, psychomotor speed, and language and executive function. The tests were conducted at baseline and at the 1-year follow-up visit, then every 2 years. A panel of neurologists, neuropsychologists, and geriatricians reviewed the results of those tests to determine which participants had dementia and which had cognitive impairment, no dementia (CIND).During a median of 4.7 years after the second annual follow-up visit, the researchers documented 461 incident dementia cases and 2,576 incident CIND cases, of which 289 and 1,626 were in antibiotic users, respectively. After adjusting for baseline cognitive testing scores, family history of dementia, sociodemographic and lifestyle factors, use of other medications known to affect cognition, and other health-related risk factors, the researchers found that antibiotic use was not associated with increased risk of dementia (hazard ratio [HR], 1.03; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.84 to 1.25) or CIND (HR, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.94 to 1.11) compared with non-use. When the researchers categorized participants by the cumulative frequency of antibiotic use (0 to 5 or more prescriptions) or long-term use (6 or more antibiotic dispenses within any 6-month interval), they found that neither higher antibiotic use frequency nor long-term use were associated with dementia or CIND. Similar results were found when they looked at specific antibiotic classes, including those that can reach higher concentrations in the central nervous system (e.g., tetracyclines, sulfonamide/trimethoprim, fluoroquinolones, and metronidazole).

Prison needle exchanges in Canada save an estimated $2 in infection-treatment costs for every $1 spent -- Every dollar spent on Canada's Prison Needle Exchange Programs (PNEPs) saves an estimated $2 in treatment costs for hepatitis C and injection-related infections, supporting their expansion to all 43 federal prisons, Canadian and Australian researchers report today in CMAJ. The authors developed a model to estimate and project costs to treat hepatitis C and injection-related infections under different PNEP scenarios in the prisons. Scenarios for 2018 to 2030 were no PNEPs, status quo (PNEP implementation from 2018 to 2022, with continuation to 2030), and PNEP expansion (coverage for injecting-drug users rising from 2025 to 2030, reaching 50% by 2030). The team calculated the benefit-cost ratio as healthcare savings divided by PNEP costs. By 2019, Correctional Service Canada PNEPs were instituted in 9 of 43 federal prisons, with coverage reaching 10% of injecting-drug users in 2022. All new prison entrants undergo an intake assessment with a registered nurse and are offered the PNEP. Inmates can apply for the PNEP any time during their sentence, and the warden decides whether to accept applicants on the basis of a threat risk assessment and input from the security intelligence officer and assistant warden of operations. Approved participants sign a contract and receive a syringe and needle, mixing cup, cotton filters, vitamin C, and sterile water, which they can exchange at Health Services. The World Health Organization’s Global Health Sector Strategies for 2022 to 2030 call for the reduction of new hepatitis C infections to fewer than 2 and the distribution of 300 needles and syringes per person among injecting-drug users per year by 2030. But the authors noted that, as of 2023, Canada was one of only nine countries with PNEPs in at least one prison. "Needle exchange programs are evidence-based strategies that prevent transmission of blood-borne viruses, reduce injection-related infections, improve access to medical care, and facilitate entry into substance dependence programs for people who inject drugs," they wrote.

DeWine signs law to protect Ohio patients from sex abuse by docs, but plans to veto another bill | The Statehouse News Bureau --Patients will be better protected from sexual abuse by doctors and other medical professionals under a law signed by Gov. Mike DeWine.And he said he’ll take action on another piece of legislation from lame duck which backers say guarantees “medical free speech”.Senate Bill 109 would require prosecutors to notify the state medical board and other regulators if a medical professional has been indicted or convicted of sexual battery, and punishes people who know about abuse but don’t report it."The state medical board's highest priority is to protect patients. Our job is not to protect doctors," said Jonathan Feibel, president of the State Medical Board of Ohio. "I know how vulnerable and trusting patients can be when they need medical attention and are in a time of need. Medical providers who breach the trust of a patient must be held accountable."Feibel noted that when he became board president five years ago, his first meeting was an emergency session to deal with information coming out about Richard Strauss, the Ohio State doctor accused of sexually assaulting hundreds of male student athletes in the ‘80s and ‘90s. Some of Strauss' victims have sued, naming OSU officials who they say knew about the abuse and didn't report it. The list includes U.S. Rep. Jim Jordan (R-4), a former wrestling coach who has denied any knowledge of Strauss' attacks on students.In 2019, a working group convened by DeWine found that in 1996, investigators with the State Medical Board knew that Strauss had been “performing inappropriate genital exams on male students for years,” but didn't notify law enforcement and the board didn't move to revoke Strauss' license. DeWine then called on the State Medical Board to investigate all sexual abuse allegations against medical professionals where no action was taken for the last 25 years. DeWine said they’ve looked into more than 1,200 sexual misconduct complaints against licensed medical professionals from 1994 to 2019.This bill also requires health care facilities to inform the state medical board within 30 days that they're launching an investigation into a doctor for sexual or criminal misconduct. Doctors would have to report certain criminal charges to the board within 30 days. The state medical board can suspend a doctor's license if they receive verifiable information of sexual abuse, and doctors must notify patients in writing if they are on probation for sexual misconduct or patient harm. And the state medical board is authorized to provide victims with status updates about a complaint.DeWine also said he’ll strike something in what was the lame duck Christmas tree bill, banning regulators from taking action against medical professionals who deal in misinformation.“I intend to line-item veto that provision. This would totally strip our regulatory boards of authority," DeWine said.

Study: 6% of US adults have long COVID, and many have reduced quality of life - Two new studies paint a comprehensive picture of current long COVID cases in the United States, and both suggest the condition limits daily activities for a significant proportion of those affected. In Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report researchers used data collected from the 2023 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), a large, population-based cross-sectional survey of US adults, to assess the prevalence of long COVID.Survey participants were asked about their sex, age, previous COVID-19 illness, current long COVID, and whether they experienced significant activity limitation due to long COVID.In total 6.4% of those surveyed said they were currently experiencing long COVID. Of those, 1 in 5, or 19.8%, said their symptoms caused significant limitations when carrying out daily activities.There were significant geographical differences in long-COVID prevalence, from 2.9% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.7% to5.1%) in the US Virgin Islands to 9.7% (95% CI, 8.7% to 10.9%) in West Virginia. Idaho, Puerto Rico, and West Virginia all had 8% or higher prevalence of long COVID. Those areas were also in the highest 20% for the prevalence of significant long-COVID–associated activity limitation. - "Adults with Long COVID, particularly those with significant Long COVID–associated activity limitation, might require additional supports to aid recovery, such as health care resources and workplace accommodations," the authors wrote. "These estimates might help guide jurisdiction-specific policy, planning, or programming to support U.S. adults reporting Long COVID–associated limitations." The 2024 long COVID research index classified 20% of participants with known prior SARS-CoV-2 infection and 4% of those without known prior SARS-CoV-2 infection as having likely long COVID (vs 21% and 5%, respectively, in the 2023 index) and 39% of participants with known prior SARS-CoV-2 infection as having possible long COVID, according to new research published in JAMA. A total of 13,647 participants (11,743 with known SARS-CoV-2 infection and 1,904 without) were included in the analysis, which was part of the Researching COVID to Enhance Recovery (RECOVER-Adult) study. The average age was 45, and 73% of participants were female. The study builds on the 2023 index, and updates the long COVID index with information from 4,000 more participants and expanded symptom questionnaires. The 39% of participants with possible long COVID is a new category added this year, the authors said. This new category can help guide future prospective studies of the condition, they added. Recent studies have demonstrated a wide range for the prevalence of long COVID, whether measuring current long COVID or the rate of people who have ever had the condition.

10th COVID wave now surging in the US, amid total silence in the corporate mediaThe latest wastewater surveillance data show that the COVID-19 pandemic has entered its tenth wave in the United States. Last week’s spike in wastewater was the highest percentage increase in transmission in almost three years, though these figures could be revised downwards and the full severity of the wave will only become clear in the coming weeks. One reason for the rapid jump appears to be a later start for the “winter surge” than is typical, and thus the virus could be quickly rising to a level that has now become typical for this time of year. The Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative (PMC) model estimates that 1.6 percent of Americans are presently infected and capable of transmitting the virus to others. That is 1 in 64 people and represents nearly 750,000 new COVID-19 cases per day. That means that on a flight of 100 people, there is an 80 percent chance that at least one person is infectious; on a flight of 300 people that rises to a 99 percent chance. This level of transmission exceeds the levels for 73 percent of the duration of the pandemic to date. Given the known incidence of Long COVID, the current levels of transmission are generating an estimated 200,000 new cases of Long COVID per week. Not a word about this latest COVID-19 wave has been uttered by the Biden administration or any major outlet in the corporate media. The entire political establishment is in agreement on the need to enforce the pro-corporate policy of “forever COVID,” in which the working class and broad layers of society as a whole are condemned to unending waves of mass infection, death and debilitation with Long COVID. The PMC model projects that the current winter surge could peak between New Year’s Day and January 7. Because COVID-19 transmission followed a completely different pattern in 2024 than any other year of the pandemic, it is more difficult to forecast transmission during the current surge. This year’s summer surge was unusually late and sustained, while also declining abnormally rapidly, and the lull between the summer and winter surges was atypically long. The latest data on test positivity and emergency department visits from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) show both these indicators on the increase. Hospitalizations and deaths are typically lagging indicators, and although they have not yet increased, they are likely to rise as well in the coming week or two. The new XEC variant continues to increase as a percentage of COVID-19 infections, now estimated at 44 percent, compared to 33 percent a week ago. It is now the most common variant, having surpassed the KP3.1.1 variant per the most recent data. Given the total absence of governmental support for the renovation of infrastructure to ensure that indoor air is purified in public spaces, the only defenses against COVID-19 continue to be vaccines and non-pharmaceutical measures, such as social distancing and masking. Vaccination additionally protects against the most adverse outcomes of COVID-19, including death and hospitalization, while providing moderate protection against Long COVID.

Study shows resistance to Paxlovid is uncommon --A new analysis from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) demonstrates that, in clinical trials, the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 resistance to Paxlovid is infrequent (less than 0.3% to 1.1%).The study was published today in Clinical Infectious Diseases,and provides the most comprehensive analysis of SARS-CoV-2 resistance to Paxlovid (nirmatrelvir/ritonavir) to date.Researchers analyzed baseline and matching post-baseline SARS-CoV-2 next-generation sequencing data from 1,862 participants (912 who received Paxlovid, 950 placebo) to look for resistance-associated substitutions (RAS).All participants came from EPIC-HR and EPIC-SR, phase 2/3, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trials of Paxlovid in participants with mild-to-moderate COVID-19. The trials were conducted during the pre-Omicron (HR/SR) and Omicron (SR) periods of the pandemic. By comparing amino acid tables and next-generation sequencing data, the researchers found that SARS-CoV-2 clinical resistance to Paxlovid in EPIC-HR was infrequent, occurring in 6 of 530 treated participants (1.1%). Two of those six treated participants had evidence of viral rebound by day 10 after treatment, but the authors said other studies have not linked Paxlovid rebound to resistance."Importantly, none of these substitutions were associated with clinical treatment failure, defined as COVID-19-related hospitalization or all-cause death through Day 28." the authors wrote.

COVID-19 linked to more heart complications than flu, RSV - A new study published in BMC Cardiovascular Disordersshows that pediatric and young adult COVID-19 patients are more at risk for cardiac complications than flu or RSV patients of the same age. The study was based on hospitalized US patients from 2020 through 2021 tracked through the National Inpatient Sample. In total 212,655 respiratory virus admissions were recorded, including 85,055 from COVID-19, 103,185 from RSV, and 24,415 from influenza. The median age of children hospitalized with COVID-19 was 15 years, with influenza it was 4 years, and with RSV it was under 1 year.A total of 740 patients with COVID-19 also experienced myocarditis, compared to 55 patients who had flu and 65 with RSV. The odds of myocarditis were 61% lower in influenza (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.39), and 85% lower in RSV (aOR 0.15) compared to COVID-19. Looking at bradyarrhythmias, compared to COVID-19, the odds were 49% lower in RSV but not statistically significant different with flu."Tachyarrhythmias, sudden cardiac arrest, and in-hospital mortality showed no differences after adjusting for covariates," the authors said. Because of the increased risk of cardiovascular complications, the authors "recommend measures to prevent COVID-19 infection and to anticipate and promptly manage these cardiovascular complications in risk-prone children especially those with underlying comorbid conditions to prevent mortality."

Review of US vaccine injury reimbursement program shows less than 3% of claims eligible for compensation - A report yesterday from the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) on federal response to medical countermeasure injury compensation claims—primarily about COVID and flu vaccines—reveals that, during the first few years of the COVID-19 pandemic, claims spiked to 27 times the typical number received, and less than 3% of the claims were eligible for compensation. About half of the claims were related to COVID vaccination. The vast majority of money paid for claims, however—more than $6 million—was for harms tied to the H1N1 flu vaccine.The Health and Human Services (HHS) Countermeasures Injury Compensation Program (CICP) review showed that the program received a surge of 13,333 injury claims, and 92 (2.6%) of the completed claims were eligible for compensation.To encourage the development of medical countermeasures like drugs and vaccines, the Public Readiness and Emergency Preparedness Act of 2005 limited the legal liability of manufacturers of certain countermeasures. It also authorized HHS to establish the CICP to compensate people who die or suffer serious physical injuries directly caused by these countermeasures.The Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA) within HHS made decisions on 25% of the total claims submitted as of June 2024 (the most recent data available); the remainder were under review or pending review. Of the 92 claims that completed the adjudication process, 52 (57%) were COVID-vaccine–related and 37 (40%) were for serious injuries caused by the H1N1 flu vaccine. "HRSA paid roughly $6.5 million in compensation for eligible claims as of June 2024, with most of that amount for serious injuries, such as Guillain-Barré syndrome, caused by the H1N1 vaccine," the GAO report said. "About $400,000 was paid for injuries related to COVID-19 countermeasures, such as myocarditis (inflammatory heart condition)."

Illnesses caused by respiratory viruses increase in US - Ahead of the Christmas holiday week, respiratory virus activity triggering healthcare visits is at the moderate level, with further rises seen for flu, activity up from low levels for COVID-19, and high levels for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said today in its updates, which also included updated seasonal outlooks. The CDC said it expects the current winter respiratory virus season to have similar or fewer peak hospitalizations for all three viruses compared to last season. It estimated that, for COVID, however, if a new variant with immune-escape properties doesn't emerge, the peak burden will likely be lower than last season and occur in late December or early January. In its weekly FluView update, covering the week ending December 13, the CDC said test positivity, emergency department (ED) visits for flu, and the percentage of outpatient visits for flulike illness all rose from the previous week's level. At public health labs, influenza A made up nearly 97% of positive detections, and, of subtyped viruses, 53.5% were the H3N2 strain and 46.2% were 2009 H1N1. Hospitalizations also rose for all age-groups and are highest in seniors ages 75 and older. Outpatient visits for flulike illness rose to 3.8% and have now been above the national baseline of 3.0% for 3 weeks. Two states—Louisiana and Oregon—are reporting very high activity, a measure of outpatient visits, while 13 are reporting high activity, mostly across the South and West. Of the two pediatric flu deaths, one involved an unsubtyped influenza A virus and occurred the week ending December 7. The other was due to influenza B and occurred last week. So far, four pediatric flu deaths have been reported to the CDC this season. In its COVID tracking, the CDC said wastewater levels, ED visits, and test positivity continue to increase from low levels, with wastewater detections remaining at the moderate level nationally and highest in the Midwest. In new estimates, the CDC said 72,000 to 120,000 people have been hospitalized for COVID since October 1, along with 8,200 to 13,000 deaths over the same time period.Meanwhile, in its latest variant proportion projections today, the CDC reported a further rise in XEC viruses, which are now the most commonly reported variant, at 45%. The only other variant showing a notable rise was LP.8.1, up from 4% to 8% over the past 2 weeks.

Flu testing at US emergency visits jumped from 3% to 11% from 2013 to 2022 - The proportion of emergency department (ED) visits that triggered influenza testing rose from 2.5% in 2013 to 10.9% in 2022, according to data from the National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NHAMCS). The results, from researchers at the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), are now published as a data brief on the NCHS website. "Preliminary data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for the 2022–2023 influenza season suggest that 31 million people developed influenza, 360,000 were hospitalized with influenza, and 21,000 died from influenza," the authors wrote. The percentage of ED visits with a flu test ordered or provided increased in all age-groups but was highest among infants and children aged 5 years and younger, climbing from 8.6% in 2013 to 23.1% in 2022. Among children aged 6 to 17 years, the proportion with a flu test at ED visits rose from 2.6% to 13.4%. In adults, the percentage of ED visits with a flu test increased from 1.9% to 9.1% in those aged 18 to 44 years, from 1.3% to 8.7% in those aged 45 to 64, and from 1.5% to 9.6% for those aged 65 and older.The percentages of ED encounters that included a flu test rose for most first-listed reasons for the visit. A flu test was ordered or provided at 16.8% of ED visits for patients with the predominant symptom of fever in 2013, rising to 38.5% in 2022. Likewise, flu tests increased for cough (13.3% to 35.8%). Other common reasons for flu tests were nausea (22.6%), shortness of breath (19.6%), and psychological symptoms (16.7%). These percentages were significantly higher than the corresponding proportions in 2013 for nausea (2.2%) and shortness of breath (3.1%). There were no flu tests ordered for psychological symptoms in 2013.The proportion of ED visits involving a flu test climbed in each of the four US geographic regions during the study period, from 1.6% to 12.9% in the Northeast, 0.4% to 8.4% in the Midwest, 5.0% to 11.4% in the South, and 1.0% to 11.1% in the West. "To prevent more serious illness, early identification and treatment of influenza is important," the researchers wrote.

US whooping cough cases soar, but public knowledge of the contagious disease remains low - US cases of pertussis (whooping cough), rose sixfold from 2023 to Nov 30, 2024, yet public knowledge of the highly contagious bacterial disease is lacking, suggests a survey today from the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania.The data came from the 22nd wave of a nationally representative panel of 1,771 adults surveyed from November 14 to 24, 2024. Annenberg has been tracking public knowledge, beliefs, and behaviors surrounding vaccination, COVID-19, influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and other health issues through this panel since 2021.After a COVID-19 pandemic–related lull, pertussis infections have climbed steeply, with more than 28,000 cases reported so far this year, six times as many as in the same period in 2023, per the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The CDC recommends that everyone aged 7 years and older, including pregnant women, receive the tetanus, diphtheria, and pertussis (Tdap) vaccine. Infants and young children can receive the diphtheria, tetanus, and acellular pertussis (DTaP) vaccine. Some survey highlights:

• Thirty percent of respondents didn't know that pertussis is the same as whooping cough or that it is vaccine-preventable.
• Only 29% knew all three diseases that the Tdap vaccine protects against and chose no incorrect ones.
• A total of 85% said they would likely recommend that an 11- or 12-year-old child in their household or an adult due for a 10-year booster get a Tdap vaccine. And 80% said the vaccine is effective.
• When shown a list of symptoms and asked which ones apply to pertussis, the only one nearly universally recognized (83%) was coughing fits. Low-grade fever was correctly selected as a symptom by 44%, vomiting after coughing by 33%, and a runny nose by 30%.

Quick takes: Tightened Listeria measures, review of Merck's RSV preventive, select agent list shrinks | CIDRAP

• The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) today announcedseveral new steps to shore up its oversight of food processing facilities, especially in light of recentListeria monocytogenes outbreaks and numerous recalls. A review of its processes identifies some steps that can be taken quickly under three categories: enhancing sampling, equipping inspectors with updated training and tools, and tightening oversight of regulated establishments, including those under state inspection models. In its statement, it spelled out the changes it will make over the next 30 days.
• Merck today announced that the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has accepted its Biologics License Application (BLA) to review clesrovimab (MK-1654), a long-acting monoclonal antibody injection to protect infants from respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). The target action date is June 10, 2025, which company officials said, if approved, could pave the way for use during the 2025-2026 season. The drug is delivered as a single injection to protect infants during their first RSV season. If approved, the drug would be the second prophylactic monoclonal antibody for infants, alongside nirsevimab-alip (Beyfortus), which is made by AstraZeneca.
• The USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) yesterday said after a biennial review that it removed five select agents from its Biological Select Agents and Toxins (BSAT) list. They include Brucella abortus, Brucella suis, Brucella melitensis, African horse sickness virus, and Peronosclerospora philippinensis. It said the step removes regulatory barriers that help advance research on vaccines and diagnostics and that delisting the Brucella species doesn’t change the current biosafety level for lab work.

Vaccination gaps widen in English kids, with those in poorest areas 20 times more vulnerable to measles Childhood vaccination disparities are worsening in England, with coverage of five important vaccines lower in young children living in low-income areas and 20 times more children vulnerable to measles in the poorest areas, according to an observational study published last week in BMJ. The University of Liverpool–led study evaluated data on uptake of the first and second doses of the measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine (MMR1 and MMR2), rotavirus vaccine, pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) booster, and six-in-one diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, polio, Haemophilus influenzaetype b, and hepatitis B (DTaP/IPV/Hib/HepB) among more than 2.4 million 5-year-old children from April 2019 to March 2023.Vaccine coverage remained below the 95% recommended by the World Health Organization throughout the study.The greatest absolute inequality in vaccine coverage at baseline was for MMR2 (slope index of inequality [SII], −9.6% to −13.4%. The uptake SII rose for all studied vaccines: −5.1% to −7.7% for six-in-one, −7.4% to −10.2% for rotavirus, −7.9% to −9.7% for PCV, −8.0% to −10.0% for MMR1 at 2 years, −3.1% to −5.6% for MMR1 at 5 years, and −9.6% to −13.4% for MMR2 at 5 years. The number of children unprotected against measles climbed 15-fold among the least deprived (from 1,364 to 20,958), jumping 20-fold in the most deprived (from 1,296 to 25,345). For rotavirus, a 14-fold spike occurred among the least deprived (from 2,292 to 32,981), and a 16-fold rise was seen among the most deprived (from 2,815 to 45,201). The authors called for stronger vaccination systems, interventions, and catch-up campaigns in underserved populations. "Reduced access to and acceptability of childhood vaccinations, with more prevalent vaccine hesitancy in disadvantaged groups, is likely to play a role in the generation of these inequalities," they wrote. "According to global studies, barriers to vaccine uptake in socially disadvantaged groups include perceptions of risk, low confidence in vaccinations, distrust of services, barriers to access, lack of community endorsement, and poor communication from trusted providers and community leaders."

Europe says flu, RSV on the rise and affecting health systems -Today, the European Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (ECDC) today posted an epidemiologic alert about a sharp rise in flu and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) activity in most European countries.The report said the uptake is starting to have an impact on health systems.“The EU/EEA 10% primary care test positivity threshold signaling the start of the influenza season has been reached, with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2) and B viruses co-circulating,” the ECDC said, noting that although all three seasonal flu viruses are circulating, it’s too early to identify a dominant strain.In Australia, the flu season was being co-dominated by A(H1N1)pdm09 (47.9%) and A(H3N2) (47.7%) viruses, with very little circulation of B/Victoria-lineage viruses (4.4%).COVID-19 activity remains relatively stable, the ECDC noted, after increased activity this past summer. The report urged citizens and healthcare workers not yet vaccinated against COVID-19 or seasonal influenza to do so as soon as possible before next week’s holidays. “The end-of-year festive season is traditionally associated with activities such as social gatherings, shopping and travelling, which pose additional risks for intensified respiratory virus transmission,” the ECDC said.

Report describes rare US vancomycin-resistant Staph case -A letter published today in Emerging Infectious Diseasesdescribes a case of vancomycin-resistantStaphylococcus aureus (VRSA) identified in North Carolina in 2021. It's just the 16th confirmed case of VRSA identified in the United States since 2002.The case-patient was a 55-year-old man with a history of diabetes, hypertension, arthritis, pulmonary disease, peripheral vascular disease, methicillin-resistant S aureus (MRSA), and vancomycin-resistant enterococci(VRE). In the 60 days prior to VRSA identification, he had been in a skilled nursing facility (SNF), an acute-care hospital (ACH), and a wound-care clinic (WCC) and had received care for a non-healing foot wound and five antibiotics, including vancomycin. The VRSA isolate was cultured from the foot wound.Site visits by investigators from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services, and the Caldwell County Health Department revealed several infection-prevention and -control gaps at the SNF, including inappropriate use or absence of personal protective equipment, low adherence to hand hygiene, poor wound-care technique, inability to outline cleaning and disinfection protocols, crowded/cramped spaces, and no dedicated infection preventionist. But screening of specimens from 115 patient contacts (83 ACH and WCC staff, 12 SNF staff, 16 SNF residents, and 4 household members) did not identify any VRSA transmission.The investigators say the VRSA isolate belonged to the CC45 lineage, which circulates in both healthcare facilities and the community, and that the patient's history of MRSA and VRE infections supports the theory that his VRSA infection resulted from conjugal transfer of the vancomycin-resistance gene vanA from VRE to MRSA."In conclusion, emergence of this unique VRSA strain highlights the potential for emergence of other novel transmissible strains," they wrote. "Although the lack of transmission is reassuring, continued vigilance and investigation for all confirmed cases is paramount given the potential for vancomycin resistance to emerge in different S. aureus lineages, thereby resulting in novel strains that are more fit and thus more transmissible."

New clade 1b mpox cases detected in Germany -According to media reports, Germany has four new clade 1b mpox cases, including two cases in school-aged children.According to a post from the infectious disease blog Avian Flu Diary, the cases are in a family that recently traveled to Africa. One person likely had close contact with a case-patient while traveling, and then spread the virus to three family members. The family lives in the Rheinisch-Bergischer district, near Cologne.Health officials from the district are working with the Robert Koch Institute to contact the schools and places of employment of the family and monitor contacts for symptoms.Clade 1b began spreading last year in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and has since been found in dozens of African countries as well as in Sweden, Thailand, India, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada.Germany had reported one other clade 1b case in October, and the patient recovered fully.This strain of mpox is considered more virulent and transmissible than the clade 2 strain that caused a global outbreak of the virus primarily among men who have sex with men in 2022. Clade 1b can be spread through close contact with an infected person.

Africa's mpox outbreak nears 70,000 cases as officials lay out response priorities - Mpox activity in Africa continues at a steady pace, with 3,095 cases reported over the past week, 2,632 of them from the main hot spot, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), a top official from Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) said today at a briefing. Ngashi Ngongo, MD, PhD, head of Africa CDC's mpox incident management team, said 31 more deaths were reported, 29 of them in the DRC. Since the first of the year, the region has reported nearly 70,000 cases in 20 countries. As activity continues to fluctuate, Guinea moved from the controlled stage to active transmission last week, with five countries remaining in the controlled stage: Gabon, South Africa, Morocco, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.Ngongo said the first 50,000 doses of the LC16 vaccine donated by Japan are expected to arrive in Kinshasa this week, with as many as 3 million doses available starting in February. Japanese experts are hosting workshops this week with the health ministry on use of the vaccinec, which is administered with a bifurcated needle and requires extra healthcare worker training. The vaccine from Japan's stockpile had been used in children before, and the product will fill a gap in vaccinating young children, since it can be used on children as young as 1 year old.Ngongo said Africa CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO) this week led a continental review of the mpox response, which included officials from nine affected countries and seven response partners. The group identified eight priorities that are urgently needed to tackle the ongoing outbreak, including mobilizing more resources, intensifying support for the hardest-hit countries, improving data management systems, and speeding and expanding vaccination. Other key priorities were focusing an integrated approach to the response that focuses on the community, addressing coinfections such as measles, sharing lessons learned among countries, and improving surge staffing support.

Quick takes: More cucumber-linked Salmonella, mpox vaccine for Africa, polio in 3 nations | CIDRAP

• The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) yesterday reported 32 new cases in aSalmonella Typhimurium outbreak linked to cucumbers imported from Mexico, raising the total to 100 people from 23 states. Seven more people were hospitalized for their infections, raising the total to 25. No deaths have been reported. The CDC and states have identified seven subclusters at three assisted-living facilities, three school districts, and one restaurant. The outbreak was first announced in late November. The trace-back investigation led to a common grower in Mexico, which resulted in a recall of the cucumbers.
• Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, today announced that it has wrapped up work on an agreement to facilitate donations of 305,000 doses of Bavarian Nordic mpox vaccine on behalf of the United States to affected African countries. The first delivery of 11,200 doses is expected to arrive in Nigeria today. In late September, the United States announced a plan to donate up to 1 million doses to support the public health emergency for mpox, which launched discussions to donate the first 305,000 doses through Gavi. About 6 million mpox vaccine doses have been pledged by different countries and groups, with delivery expected in 2024. Some doses have already been allocated to nine of Africa's hardest-hit countries. Gavi said it is still in discussions with the United States about the remaining pledged doses.
• In its weekly update, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) reported more polio cases in three countries. Pakistan reported 4 more wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) cases in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Sindh, all in patients with November paralysis onsets, raising the country's total for the year to 63. In Africa, two countries reported more circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) cases: Chad with 4 and Nigeria with 3. The countries have reported 26 and 89 cases this year, respectively.

Further lab tests show severe malaria and malnutrition behind unexplained DR Congo outbreak --Further lab results on samples from patients sickened in an unexplained illness outbreak in a remote part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) suggest a severe form of malaria, Reuters reported today, citing a statement from the health ministry.Officials also said malnutrition was one of the factors in the illnesses, and that the current case total is 592 with a case-fatality rate of 6.2%.The outbreak in Kwango province’s Panzi health district began in late October, and DRC health officials first learned of the outbreak in early December. Symptoms included fever, headache, cough, breathing problems, and weakness. Difficult road conditions amid the rainy season have made it hard for investigators to access the area, which has poor communication and little lab testing capacity. Initial samples suggested malaria. Some of the first samples that reached the National Institute for Biomedical Research (INRB) in Kinshasa were of poor quality, and more samples, including respiratory specimens, were collected and sent to the lab. More complete results were expected this week.

Cases, deaths rise in illness outbreak in remote DR Congo - In an acute febrile illness outbreak in a remote part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), a man recently died following hemorrhagic fever symptoms, and samples have been sent to Kinshasa for testing, an official with Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) said at a briefing today.Ngashi Ngongo, MD, PhD, who leads Africa CDC's mpox incident management team, said though malaria has been reported in several samples during follow-up testing, testing on more samples is under way, as is the epidemiologic investigation. On quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) testing, 25 of 29 samples were positive for malaria, and, on rapid testing, 55 of 88 samples were positive. Testing continues on samples from blood, sera, swabs, and stool to see if other pathogens are involved.Earlier this week, the DRC's health ministry saidpreliminary lab tests suggested the outbreak's cause was a severe form of malaria, with malnutrition as one of the illness factors. Ngongo said officials are weighing two hypotheses: that severe malaria is occurring against the background of malnutrition and viral infection or that a viral infection is occurring against a background of malaria and malnutrition. Over the past week, 65 more cases were reported, along with 5 additional deaths. Though 37 deaths have been recorded in healthcare facilities, Ngongo said investigators are working to determine whether 44 deaths reported in the community are linked to the outbreak, which has a case-fatality rate of 62%. Overall, 592 cases have been reported, with the largest portion in children younger than 10 years old.

Flu surveillance flags probable H5 avian flu case in Delaware -An H5 avian flu case that the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently added to its probable list was initially flagged by routine flu surveillance. In other developments, federal officials confirmed more H5N1 detections in diary cows, poultry flocks, and a few non-farm mammals, and Labcorp announced the launch of its molecular test for the virus in people. Tim Mastro, deputy director of communications with Delaware Health and Social Services, said in an email that the state's Division of Public Health identified a possible case of novel H5 during routine surveillance at the state public health lab, which immediately contacted the CDC for confirmation testing and guidance.After multiple tests on the sample, the CDC notified Delaware health officials that it couldn't confirm the novel influenza A in the case.The CDC had said a few days ago that the infection meets the case definition for a probable case and that there is no defined exposure. The CDC has now reported seven probable cases. The six others involve people who had exposure to cows or poultry. The number of lab-confirmed infections since the start of the year remains at 60, which includes 2 with unknown exposure. In other developments, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) confirmed 7 more outbreaks in dairy cattle, all in California, raising the state's total to 645 and the national total to 860 across 16 states.APHIS also added two more confirmations in poultry flocks, the one it recently noted in Louisiana backyard birds and an outbreak at a commercial turkey breeder hen facility in Barron County, Wisconsin.Also, APHIS confirmed five more H5N1 detections in mammals, all with sample collection dates between the end of October and the first week of December. They include a house mouse and a domestic cat from Utah's Cache County, where outbreaks in dairy cattle and an egg-laying farm were reported earlier this fall. The detections also include two mountain lions, one in Arizona and the other in Washington, and a domestic cat in California's San Bernardino County.

Positive avian flu bulk-tank tests prompt another raw-milk recall in California The California Department of Food and Agriculture (CDFA) on December 14 announced a recall of raw milk from a second producer—Valley Milk Simply Bottled in Stanislaus County—based on positive tests for avian flu from bulk-milk testing samples.Stanislaus County is part of California's Central Valley, which has been hit hard by H5N1 outbreaks in dairy cows since August. Unlike the earlier raw-milk recall involving products from Raw Farms, the recall of Valley Milk's raw milk wasn't based on positive samples from products on retail shelves.In its statement, the CDFA said the recall order applies to quarts, half-gallons, and gallon plastic jugs with date codes ranging from December 23 to December 30. So far no human cases have been confirmed in people who consumed raw milk, but two cat deaths were reported in pets that were exposed to products from Raw Farms.In its December 13 update on human cases, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) added one more probable case to its list, which involves a patient from Delaware whose exposure to the virus isn't known.So far, no other details from state or federal health officials are available. The CDC has reported seven probable cases.Since the first of the year, the CDC has reported 60 confirmed human cases. Most involve exposure to sick cows or poultry, but 2 have unknown exposure sources, 1 in California and 1 in Missouri. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) todayannounced that tests have confirmed highly pathogenic avian influenza for the first time in a Louisiana poultry flock, bringing the number of affected states to all 50.The outbreak involves a backyard poultry flock in Bossier Parish, which is in the northwestern part of the state near Shreveport. Louisiana recently reported its first probable human avian flu case, and the state's wildlife officials recently warned of rising avian flu cases in wild birds due to the fall migration. APHIS today confirmed 8 more H5N1 outbreaks in dairy cattle, all in California. The additions push the national total to 853 affected herds and California's total to 638.Meanwhile, APHIS reported more poultry outbreaks in two states, four of them involving commercial farms in California.In California, the virus hit two farms in Tulare County: a broiler farm that has 514,500 birds and a duck meat producer that has 41,100 birds. Outbreaks also involve two other duck producers in separate counties, a breeding facility in Monterey County that has 13,700 birds and a meat producer in Merced County that has 119,000 birds.Elsewhere, APHIS confirmed an outbreak in Illinois poultry, marking the state's second such event in the past month. The outbreak occurred at a turkey breeder hen facility in Livingston County that has 40,900 birds.In more quickly evolving developments, the Iowa Department of Natural Resources today warned of a sharp jump in avian flu in wild birds, mainly north of Interstate 80, an area that includes roughly the northern two thirds of the state.Also, three Midwestern state agriculture departments announced more detections in poultry, which haven't yet been confirmed by APHIS. Michigan today reported its first outbreak in poultry since May, which involves a commercial farm in Ottawa County; Iowa on December 13 reported an outbreak at a layer farm in O'Brien County; and Wisconsin on December 12 reported an outbreak on a commercial poultry flock in Barron County.

California declares bird flu emergency. 1st severe human case found in Louisiana : NPR California Gov. Gavin Newsom has declared a state of emergency in response to the ongoing spread of bird flu among dairy cattle. The declaration is a sign of growing concern over the situation in California, which has become the epicenter of the nation's outbreak in cattle. More than 300 dairy herds have tested positive in California in the last 30 days alone. The governor said that cases detected in dairy cows on farms in Southern California showed that expanded monitoring and a more coordinated statewide response is needed in response to the outbreak. "This proclamation is a targeted action to ensure government agencies have the resources and flexibility they need," Newsom said in the statement. " "While the risk to the public remains low, we will continue to take all necessary steps to prevent the spread of this virus." California currently accounts for about half of known human infections in the U.S.There's no evidence of ongoing human to human spread in California or the rest of the country. But scientists warn that uncontrolled spread in dairy cattle heightens the risk of spillover into humans, which could give the virus a chance to acquire dangerous mutations. The move also comes on the heels of another troubling development – the country's first case of severe illness detected in a human. On Wednesday, officials with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shared additional findings about that infection in a resident of Louisiana who was hospitalized after being exposed to sick and dead birds in backyard flocks. Genetic sequencing indicates the H5N1 virus responsible for the illness belongs to a genetic lineage that's circulating in wild birds and poultry — different from what's spreading in dairy cattle and driving the majority of infections in agricultural workers.In the U.S., more than 60 people have been infected so far, although some research suggests the official tally may be an undercount.The illnesses linked to dairy cattle have largely led to mild illnesses in humans.The version of the virus in the Louisiana case is the D1.1 genotype. It has previously popped up in poultry workers in Washington state, whodeveloped mild symptoms after testing positive in October. More recently, however, a teenager in British Columbia was hospitalized after contracting this D1.1 strain of the virus.Canadian health officials were unable to figure out how that person was infected.

Wisconsin reports presumptive avian flu in poultry worker as California declares emergency - In quickly evolving avian flu developments, the Wisconsin Department of Health Services (WDHS) today announced the state’s first presumptive positive for avian flu, which involves a poultry worker, and California’s governor declared a health emergency due to the expansion of H5N1 to dairy cattle beyond the hard-hit Central Valley area.The WDHS said the person who tested positive was exposed to sick poultry at a commercial farm in Barron County. The farm, located in the western part of the state, has about 13,000 breeder turkeys.Initial testing was done at the Wisconsin State Lab of Hygiene, and results are pending confirmation testing at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). If confirmed, the infection would lift the US total since the first of the year to 62 from nine states.Wisconsin officials said they are monitoring farm workers who may have been exposed to the virus. "The risk to the general public in Wisconsin remains low. People who work with infected animals, or have recreational exposure to them, are at higher risk," the WDHS said. Elsewhere, California Gov. Gavin Newsom today declared a state of emergency to streamline the state’s response to H5N1, noting that the virus has now spread beyond herds in the Central Valley to dairy farms in southern California.In a statement, he said the spread requires expanded monitoring and a coordinated statewide approach to contain and mitigate the spread of the virus. The declaration gives state and local officials more flexibility with staffing, contacting, and rules to support the evolving response needs."While the risk to the public remains low, we will continue to take all necessary steps to prevent the spread of this virus," Newsom said.California is the nation’s top dairy producer, with roughly 1,300 dairy farms. Outbreaks that began at the end of August have now affected nearly half of the state’s dairy farms.The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced yesterday that a second round of states have been added to its new National Milk Testing Strategy, bringing the number to 13. At a US Department of Health and Human Services briefing today, Eric Deeble, DVM, acting senior advisor for the USDA's H5N1 response, said the 13 states are geographically diverse, represent 8 of the top 15 dairy-producing states, and cover 50% of national production. He added that the addition marks the next step in escalating the response. States now include California, Colorado, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Utah, and Washington. In other developments, the USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) today confirmed five more outbreaks in dairy herds, four from California and one from Texas. The confirmation in Texas is the state’s first since September. APHIS also confirmed more poultry outbreaks from three states. They include two backyard flocks from Idaho’s Lemhi County, a commercial poultry farm, and backyard birds from Nebraska’s Lancaster and Sarpy counties, respectively. There were three more confirmations from South Dakota, including a commercial turkey farm in Bon Homme County and two commercial farms—one producing turkeys—in Charles Mix County. Also, APHIS reported about 120 more H5N1 detections in wild birds, most with sample collection dates ranging from late October to the beginning of December. Some were agency-harvested sparrows, starlings, doves, and pigeons in a Utah county where H5N1 was reported in dairy cattle. There were a few gulls from California, numerous waterfowl found dead in the South and Midwest, and several involving hunter-harvested ducks in Kansas, Texas, and Florida. In Texas, the Galveston County Health District announced yesterday that testing has confirmed H5N1 for the first time in an area bird. A Texas City resident reported erratic behavior in a bird to animal control officers, who took the bird to an animal resource center. The bird died shortly after and was sent to the Department of State Health Services in Austin, where tests confirmed H5N1. The two animal control officers experienced symptoms, but initial rapid tests and follow-up testing were negative for avian flu. Two other potentially exposed animal control workers are under monitoring for any symptoms.

Biden administration places profits over lives, fueling the spread of H5N1 bird flu -- The H5N1 avian influenza (bird flu) virus is spreading to new locations across the United States, as the dairy industry continues to stifle public health measures that might impinge on its profits. Last week, reports emerged that the virus appeared in wastewater for the first time in Arizona and Hawaii, a highly significant development because unlike past locations with positive wastewater, these two locations do not have outbreaks in dairy cattle or poultry farms. Although scientists are still trying to determine how the virus gets into wastewater, one leading hypothesis is that the source is rainwater runoff from infected dairy and poultry farms. The absence of such farms nearby their detection in Arizona and Hawaii raises two concerning possibilities. The first is the possibility of human-to-human transmission, although there is no other clear evidence of this yet. The second is that the virus is frequently exchanged between farms and wild bird populations, meaning that the effects of outbreaks on farms travel far beyond their immediate vicinity. One hypothesis for the appearance of the virus in wastewater in Flagstaff, Arizona, is that infected backyard chickens are the source. On Hawaiʻi Island, the virus was detected in the municipal wastewater system of the city of Hilo. The closest known outbreak was on the island of Oahu in a backyard flock of rescued ducks, as well as in a randomly tested wild duck.In the meantime, the virus continues to run rampant in dairy cattle across California. According to the latest US Department of Agriculture statistics, in the past 30 days 339 dairy farms were newly infected, nearly all of them in California.The Biden administration’s response to the spread of bird flu among dairy cattle across the US over the past year amounts to nothing short of criminal negligence.A recent investigative piece published in Vanity Fair describes the intense campaign, spearheaded by Tom Vilsack, the head of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), to suppress efforts by local and state public health workers to detect and eliminate bird flu from cattle herds. Based on interviews with over 55 individuals—including veterinarians, the USDA, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and figures in the dairy industry—it presents a comprehensive and chilling account of how the response to this outbreak has continuously placed private profit over the health of the American and world population.According to the article, once the H5N1 virus appeared in cattle in Texas in April, it could have been immediately stopped by preventing movement of cattle among farms, especially to farms in other states. But rather than implement such an order, officials in Texas blithely dismissed the danger of the virus, despite the fact that it has a 15 percent fatality rate among cattle.The main culprit was Texas Agriculture commissioner Sid Miller. At the time, he was on the short list for Trump’s pick to lead the USDA. Clearly auditioning for the position, he protected the industry’s interests, which as the piece points out, is the primary function of the USDA. Its role in protecting the food supply typically takes a back seat when profits are at stake, as clearly demonstrated by the history of the response to H5N1.The campaign of suppression began almost immediately, with the USDA overruling the White House’s Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy (OPPR). The USDA degraded rather than improved transparency and communication, canceling biweekly calls held between its veterinary service and state veterinarians. At least five veterinarians who have spoken out, or simply reacted to the H5N1 threat in a principled manner, have lost their jobs. One veterinarian working in the private sector was told she was a “risk to the company’s shareholders.” Another veterinarian was fired simply for speaking out on behalf of farmworkers. A third veterinarian was fired for her refusal to fraudulently certify a sick herd as healthy.Vilsack, the man overseeing the response to this outbreak as head of the USDA, is intimately connected to the meat and dairy industries and has directly profited from these connections throughout his political career. After serving as the governor of Iowa, a major agricultural state, from 1999-2007, he then headed the USDA under Obama, before becoming president and CEO of the US Dairy Export Council during Trump’s first term. It is expected that he will return to this position after Trump again takes office.

CDC confirms first severe H5N1 case in US patient -The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) today announced that it has confirmed the nation’s first severe H5N1 avian flu case, which involves a probable illness reported by Louisiana health officials a few days ago.The CDC said the illness also marks the nation's avian flu infection linked to exposure to backyard poultry. At a briefing today, a top CDC official said the severe clinical picture and the backyard poultry exposure matches the global pattern seen over the years in other countries.Partial genetic sequencing of virus from the patient’s sample reveals that the virus belongs to the D1.1 genotype, which is different than the B3.13 genotype circulating in dairy cattle. That genotype has mainly caused mild symptoms such as conjunctivitis in affected dairy workers. Demetre Daskalakis, MD, MPH, who directs the CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said the D1.1. genotype is known to circulate in wild birds and was recently implicated in a similar severe illness in a British Columbia teen and poultry cullers in Washington.He said the Louisiana patient was hospitalized for flu infections specifically, unlike a hospitalized Missouri patient who was hospitalized in late August for chest pain and gastrointestinal symptoms and was tested for flu as part of the diagnostic work-up. The Missouri patient’s exposure source was never determined, but genetic testing on traces of the virus showed similarity to the dairy cow strain. Daskalakis referred questions about the patient’s symptoms and health status to Louisiana health officials, who aren’t yet releasing details due to patient privacy concerns. In its December 13 announcement about the presumptive positive test, the Louisiana Department of Health said the patient is from southwestern Louisiana.The CDC said more tests on the patient’s D1.1 sample are under way to determine if there are any mutations that would point to higher pathogenicity or transmissibility in humans. Investigators in Louisiana are conducting contact tracing, and no other related illnesses have been reported.The CDC said the D1.1 detection and the first infection due to contact with backyard poultry don’t change its public health risk assessment, which remains low."A sporadic case of severe H5N1 bird flu illness in a person is not unexpected; avian influenza A(H5N1) virus infection has previously been associated with severe human illness in other countries during 2024 and prior years, including illness resulting in death. No person-to-person spread of H5 bird flu has been detected," the CDC said in a statement today.The development raises the CDC's confirmed human H5N1 cases for the year to 61 in eight states. The agency is classifying it under a new category called other animal exposure.

Avian flu infects 2 more California dairy workers as CDC confirms Wisconsin case -- The California Department of Public Health (CDPH) todayreported two more H5 avian flu infections, both in dairy workers, raising the state's total to 36. Also, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) today confirmed a presumptive case that Wisconsin reported this week in a poultry worker, raising the nation's total to 64 from 9 states since the start of the year. At a briefing today, California health officials emphasized how useful the governor's emergency proclamation is for mobilizing more staff and resources to address the virus in dairy herds, poultry flocks, and isolated infections in humans exposed to animals or raw products.Erica Pan, MD, MPH, state epidemiologist, said California health officials have monitored about 5,000 people and tested 130 who had potential symptoms. She also added that officials have followed up on numerous wastewater detections as the state battles ongoing outbreaks in dairy cattle and poultry.Annette Jones, DVM, state veterinarian, said that, of 679 dairy farms that were under quarantine, 66 have been released. The state has been proactively conducting testing at dairy farms, and recently it extended testing to farms in the southern part of the state where the virus was detected within the past 2 weeks. She said the positive test results in the south triggered proactively testing of dairy cattle on the North Coast, which has fewer farms than the Central Valley.She added that animal health officials don't yet have a full picture of how the virus is spreading among herds, emphasizing that it can move fast. Jones said about 40 research projects are under way to examine the impact and spread of the virus.In animal outbreak developments, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) today confirmed 9 more H5N1 detections in dairy cattle, all in California. The confirmations push California's total to 659 and the national total to 875 across 16 states. Also, APHIS reported two more outbreaks in poultry, which involve two commercial game bird farms in Kansas, one in Doniphan County at a location with 5,700 birds and one in Rooks County at a facility that has 5,300 birds.

More L.A. cats appear to be infected with H5N1 bird flu - Experts believe three more cats in Los Angeles County have been infected with H5N1 bird flu. Two others succumbed to the disease earlier this month after drinking recalled raw milk from Fresno-based Raw Farm LLC dairies.Of the three new sick cats, two died and one tested positive for influenza A, an unusual finding in domestic cats that haven’t been exposed to infected birds or contaminated dairy products. The two that died couldn’t be tested while they were alive, but experts believe it is likely their deaths were due to the H5N1 virus.The three cats all lived in the same household.Influenza A viruses include most seasonal human flu viruses, as well as H5N1. Health officials are not yet sure where the cats acquired H5N1 — although they noted in a statement they are investigating raw meat as a source and were awaiting test results.“The risk of H5 bird flu remains low in Los Angeles County, but these confirmed cases of the virus in pet cats are a reminder that consuming raw dairy and meat products can lead to severe illness in cats,” said Barbara Ferrer, director of the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health, in a statement.She urged county residents “to avoid raw dairy and undercooked meat products, limit contact with sick or dead animals, report sick or dead birds and keep pets or poultry away from wild animals and birds.”The three latest cats all exhibited respiratory illness, and have no known exposure to raw milk; investigators are looking into whether the animals ate raw meat.The cats lived exclusively indoors, according to health officials.People who had direct contact with the cats are being monitored for symptoms and have been offered antiviral medications. There have been cases of cat-to-human transmission of bird flu, according to researchers.It is unclear how many cats have died since H5N1 began circulating in dairy cows earlier this year. They are extremely susceptible to the virus, however, and dead barn cats are considered an early biological warning that a dairy has been affected by the virus.At one Texas dairy farm this spring, 12 barn cats died after drinking infected raw milk. Sykes also noted a 2023 outbreak in South Korea, in which shelter cats ate pet food made with H5N1-infected raw duck. In one shelter, 38 of 40 cats died after eating the contaminated food.Last year, the World Health Organization reported sporadic deaths of catsthroughout areas where H5N1 bird flu was circulating, including at one location in Poland, where a cluster of 46 died; 29 of those animals were found to be positive for the bird flu virus.Larger cats, including captive lions, tigers and panthers, have also died as a result of eating meat contaminated with bird flu. So, too, have wild California bobcats and mountain lions.Symptoms of H5N1 infection in cats include labored breathing, bloody diarrhea and neurological abnormalities — loss of motor control, seizures, depressed mental state, stiff body movements, blindness, circling, copious eye and nose discharge and coma — with rapid deterioration and death in some cases.

Los Angeles County confirms avian flu in cat deaths as more cases suspected - The Los Angeles County Department of Public Health (LACDPH) said yesterday that tests have confirmed H5 avian flu in two cats that died after drinking recalled raw milk that it is investigating three other possible cases in cats that weren't exposed to raw milk.In other developments, health officials in Wisconsin and Louisiana shared a few more illness details on recently announced suspected and confirmed human cases, respectively, and federal officials confirmed more outbreaks in cows and poultry.The confirmed LA County infections involve indoor cats from the same household, which were initially announced as suspected cases on December 12. After drinking raw milk from Raw Farm, the cats experienced appetite loss, fever, and neurologic signs. They initially tested positive for influenza A, which officials said is rare in cats. Other pets in the household are under quarantine.Meanwhile, officials are investigating possible infections in three other cats from a different household. One tested positive for influenza A, and the others died from presumed influenza A. Confirmation tests are under way.The three cats with suspected infections don't have any known exposure to raw milk, and investigators are examining other potential sources of the virus, including raw meat. People exposed to the three cats are under symptom monitoring and have been offered antiviral prophylaxis.Barbara Ferrer, PhD, MPH, Med, director of LACDPH, said, "The risk of H5 bird flu remains low in Los Angeles County, but these confirmed cases of the virus in pet cats are a reminder that consuming raw dairy and meat products can lead to severe illness in cats." She urged residents and their pets to avoid raw milk and undercooked meat products, limit exposure to sick and dead animals, report sick and dead birds, and keep pets and poultry away from wild birds.In other developments, Wisconsin health officials shared more details about the state's first presumptive positive case, announced yesterday.At a media briefing following the announcement yesterday, Thomas Haupt, MS, respiratory disease epidemiologist with the Wisconsin Department of Health Services, said the patient is a woman who worked on a farm and had mild flu symptoms that included sore throat, a slight fever, fatigue, and some eye discharge. She has finished a course of oseltamivir (Tamiflu) and is recovering.Darlene Konkle, DVM, Wisconsin's state veterinarian, said though the genotype isn't known, the virus that infected the worker is likely a genotype circulating in wild birds, given that Wisconsin doesn't have any outbreaks of the B3.13 virus in dairy cattle.Regarding Louisiana’s recently confirmed severe case, BNO News reported yesterday, citing a health department spokeswoman, that the patient is older than 65 years and has underlying medical conditions. The patient remains hospitalized and is in critical condition.The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) today confirmed yet another outbreak in dairy cattle in California. The confirmation lifts the state's total since late August to 650 and the national total to 866 across 16 states.In addition, APHIS confirmed more poultry outbreaks in four states, including a backyard flock in Louisiana's Jefferson Davis Parish in the southwest, marking the state's second such outbreak. Two other confirmations were in backyard flocks North Dakota's Nelson County and Iowa's Monona County. Meanwhile, the virus was confirmed at more commercial farms, including layer facilities in Iowa's O'Brien and Sioux counties, a turkey farm in Iowa's Worth County, and a layer pullet farm in California's Merced County. In a related development, the Wisconsin Department of Agriculture, Trade, and Consumer Protection yesterday reported a second outbreak in poultry, this time in Kenosha County in the southeast corner of the state.

Avian flu reported in 108 countries across five continents, says UN health agency In an update on the mutating virus - known as H5N1 – Dr. Madhur Dhingra from the Food and Agriculture Organization, FAO, said that it had “spilled over into wildlife”. More than 500 bird species have been infected along with at least 70 mammalian species, including the endangered California condor and polar bears. In regions that are heavily reliant on poultry as a primary source of protein, the FAO medic insisted that avian influenza “poses a serious threat to food and nutrition security”. Dr Dhingra warned that hundreds of millions of people’s livelihoods have been affected by the virus – an economic burden on farmers that could prevent them from investing in adequate biosafety measures. Following the emergence of H5N1 influenza virus in dairy cattle, the WHO has joined calls for strengthened surveillance and biosecurity on farms, to keep animals and people safe. The UN health agency said that in 2024, 76 people have been infected with the H5 avian influenza strain, and most were farm workers. More than 60 cases originated in the US, which has also reported outbreaks of H5 in wildlife and poultry and, more recently, in dairy cattle. There have also been cases reported in Australia, Canada, China, Cambodia and Viet Nam. Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, who currently serves as Director of Epidemic and Pandemic Threat Management for the WHO, said that based on the latest science, “we assess the risk of infection for the public – you and I – is currently low.” But if you work on a farm, she cautioned – and are exposed to infected animals – “we assess the current public health risk to be low-to-moderate,” depending on the level of personal protection taken. There is no evidence so far that the H5N1 viruses have adapted to spread between people and there has been no reported cases of human-to-human transmission. “We must remember, however, that this can change quickly,” the UN pandemic expert added, “as the virus is evolving and we must be prepared for such a scenario.” Every case that occurs in humans must therefore be investigated thoroughly.

CWD invades 2 more hunting districts in Montana - Montana officials yesterday announced chronic wasting disease (CWD) identifications in two hunting districts (HDs) with no previously reported cases.The affected animals were a mule deer buck in HD 515 north of Columbus and a male white-tailed deer in HD 525 west of Nye. Both were harvested by hunters, Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks (MFWP) said in a news release.CWD, a fatal neurodegenerative disease of cervids such as deer and elk, was first found in Montana's wild herds in 2017. Since then, it has been detected in different regions of Montana, including multiple other HDs in the south-central part of the state.So far this year, nearly 9,000 CWD samples have been collected from deer, elk, and moose from across Montana, leading to the identification of 321 positive cervids. Most samples were from hunter-harvested animals, but some were collected from roadkill and animals displaying CWD symptoms. Hunters can still get their harvested cervids tested for CWD throughout the muzzleloader heritage season and the elk shoulder season, MFWP said. "Hunters can help slow the spread of CWD by disposing of animal carcasses properly after harvesting the meat," the news release said. "This includes leaving carcass remains at the kill site when possible or bagging the carcass and disposing of it in a Class II landfill."CWD is caused by misfolded infectious proteins called prions, which are extremely resilient and can persist in the environment for years. CWD can spread from animal to animal and through environmental contamination. While no human CWD cases have been reported, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the World Health Organization advise against eating meat from sick cervids and urge taking precautions when handling carcasses.

First CWD case identified on Menominee Indian reservation in Wisconsin - Yesterday, the Menominee Indian Tribe of Wisconsin reported the first confirmed case of chronic wasting disease (CWD) on its reservation.The affected buck was harvested by a hunter on November 19 in the southeast corner of the reservation, which is located in northeastern Wisconsin. "As a reminder to tribal hunters, current tribal hunting regulations ban the baiting of deer on the reservation, which will remain in effect," Gena Kakkak, chair of the Menominee Tribal Legislature, said in a Facebook post. "Further, the tribe continues to encourage hunters to get their deer tested after harvest." CWD, a neurodegenerative disease caused by misfolded infectious proteins called prions, affects cervids such as deer, moose, caribou, and elk. Prions are extremely resilient and can persist in the environment for years. CWD can spread from animal to animal and through environmental contamination.While no human CWD cases have been reported, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the World Health Organization advise against eating meat from sick cervids and urge taking precautions when handling carcasses. Common signs of advanced disease include weight loss, drooping head and ears, uncoordinated movement, excessive salivation, and loss of fear of humans. "Infected deer typically appear healthy for many months after contracting the disease, so OHS [Wisconsin Department of Health Services] encourages testing for the disease regardless of the physical condition of the harvested deer, especially in areas prevalent with CWD," Kakkak said.

CWD confirmed in captive Idaho elk for first time, expands its range in Washington state -Chronic wasting disease (CWD) has been detected in a captive elk for the first time in Idaho and in a newly affected hunt area in neighboring Washington. The Idaho State Department of Agriculture (ISDA)yesterday said a domestic bull elk tested positive for CWD in Madison County. It had died earlier, and tissue samples were submitted for routine testing. The US Department of Agriculture's National Veterinary Services Laboratory confirmed the findings.The infected bull was among a group of elk transported to the Idaho ranch in March 2023 from a facility in Alberta, Canada. The elk facility had been approved to import the herd. Shortly after the shipment arrived in Idaho, the ranch in Alberta confirmed a CWD-positive elk. "Once ISDA was notified of the CWD-positive elk from the Canadian ranch, the shipment that arrived in Idaho was placed under a protective quarantine to restrict further movement of the CWD-exposed animals," the agency said. "All remaining elk that arrived in the 2023 shipment are alive and will remain under state-issued quarantine." CWD, an always-fatal prion disease that affects member of deer family, was first detected in wild deer in Idaho in 2021, and the following year in wild elk.The Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW), meanwhile, yesterday confirmed four new CWD cases in Eastern Region 1, bringing the total CWD cases in Washington to six.All four of the recent cases were hunter-harvested white-tailed bucks. Three of the deer were harvested within 5 miles of the first two positive cases in Spokane County in game management unit (GMU) 124. The fourth was several miles north, near Davis Lake in Pend Oreille County in GMU 117, the first detection in that hunt unit. "There are still several samples awaiting testing at the lab from the areas where these recent cases were confirmed," said Donny Martorello, PhD, chief of the WDFW's Wildlife Science Division. "So, there is the potential that we could find additional positive cases."

Toxic ‘Forever Chemicals’ Taint Rural California Drinking Water, Far From Known Sources Juana Valle never imagined she’d be scared to drink water from her tap or eat fresh eggs and walnuts when she bought her 5-acre farm in San Juan Bautista, California, three years ago. Escaping city life and growing her own food was a dream come true for the 52-year-old.Then Valle began to suspect water from her well was making her sick.“Even if everything is organic, it doesn’t matter, if the water underground is not clean,” Valle said.This year, researchers found worrisome levels of chemicals called PFAS in her well water. Exposure to PFAS, a group of thousands of compounds, has been linked to health problems including cancer, decreased response to vaccines, and low birth weight, according to a federally funded report by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. Valle worries that eating food from her farm and drinking the water, found also to contain arsenic, are to blame for health issues she’s experienced recently.The researchers suspect the toxic chemicals could have made their way into Valle’s water through nearby agricultural operations, which may have used PFAS-laced fertilizers made from dried sludge from wastewater treatment plants, or pesticides found to contain the compounds.The chemicals have unexpectedly turned up in well water in rural farmland far from known contamination sites, like industrial areas, airports, and military bases. Agricultural communities already face the dangers of heavy metals and nitrates contaminating their tap water. Now researchers worry that PFAS could further harm farmworkers and communities of color disproportionately. They have called for more testing.“It seems like it’s an even more widespread problem than we realized,” said Clare Pace, a researcher at the University of California-Berkeley who is examining possible exposure from PFAS-contaminated pesticides.Concerns are mounting nationwide about PFAS contamination transferred through the common practice of spreading solid waste from sewage treatment across farm fields. Officials in Maine outlawed spreading “biosolids,” as some sewage byproducts are called, on farms and other land in 2022. A study published in August found higher levels of PFAS in the blood of people in Maine who drank water from wells next to farms where biosolids were spread.Contamination in sewage mostly comes from industrial discharges. But household sludge also contains PFAS because the chemicals are prevalent in personal care products and other commonly used items, said Sarah Alexander, executive director of the Maine Organic Farmers and Gardeners Association.“We found that farms that were spread with sludge in the ’80s are still contaminated today,” Alexander said.The first PFAS, or perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances, were invented in the 1940s to prevent stains and sticking in household products. Today, PFAS chemicals are used in anything from cookware to cosmetics to some types of firefighting foam — ending up in landfills and wastewater treatment plants. Known as “forever chemicals” because they don’t break down in the environment, PFAS are so toxic that in water they are measured in parts per trillion, equivalent to one drop in 20 Olympic-size swimming pools. The chemicals accumulate in the human body.

Carnivorous squirrels documented in California -- A new study provides the first evidence that California ground squirrels hunt, kill and eat voles. The study, led by the University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire and University of California, Davis, is the first to chronicle widespread carnivorous behavior among squirrels. Published in the Journal of Ethology, the study fundamentally changes our understanding of ground squirrels. It suggests that what was considered a granivorous species actually is an opportunistic omnivore and more flexible in its diet than was assumed.The observations occurred in 2024—the 12th year of the Long-term Behavioral Ecology of California Ground Squirrels Project conducted at Briones Regional Park in Contra Costa County. Out of 74 observed interactions with voles between June and July, 42% involved active hunting of these small rodents by ground squirrels."This was shocking," said lead author Jennifer E. Smith, an associate professor of biology at UW-Eau Claire who leads the long-term ground squirrels project with Sonja Wild of UC Davis."We had never seen this behavior before. Squirrels are one of the most familiar animals to people. We see them right outside our windows; we interact with them regularly. Yet here's this never-before-encountered-in-science behavior that sheds light on the fact that there's so much more to learn about the natural history of the world around us."Wild has observed hundreds of squirrels in nature and yet, even for her, when the undergraduate students came in from field work and told her what they had witnessed, she said, "No, I'm not sure what you're referring to." Then she watched the video. "I could barely believe my eyes," said Wild, a postdoctoral research fellow in the UC Davis Environmental Science and Policy department. "From then, we saw that behavior almost every day. Once we started looking, we saw it everywhere."

Endangered whales found entangled in rope off Massachusetts, and 1 is likely to die -- Two endangered whales have been spotted entangled in fishing gear off Massachusetts, and one is likely to die from its injuries, the federal government said. They are North Atlantic right whales, which number less than 400 and face existential threats from entanglement in gear and collisions with ships. An aerial survey found the whales swimming about 50 miles southeast of Nantucket on Dec. 9, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said. One of the whales is a juvenile that has a thick line that passes across its head and back and is likely to succumb to the injury, the agency said in a statement. The other whale is an adult female who biologists think has suffered a sublethal injury from the entanglement, NOAA said. NOAA said in a statement Tuesday that it would "work with authorized responders and trained experts to monitor the whales" and that it will "further document the entanglements and determine if entanglement responses will be possible." The news of the entangled whales follows the release of new data from researchers this fall showing a slight uptick in the whale's population. A group of researchers said two months ago that the population increased about 4% from 2020. However, those researchers and environmental advocates cautioned at the time that the whales still faced the threat of extinction. The animal's population fell about 25% from 2010 to 2020. This photo provided by NOAA Fisheries shows a North Atlantic right whale documented with two lines exiting the left side of the mouth on Dec, 9, 2024. Credit: NOAA Fisheries via AP The entanglement of the two whales illustrates the need for new safeguards to protect the animals, said Gib Brogan, campaign director at Oceana. Environmentalists have pushed for new restrictions on commercial fishing and shipping to try to protect the whales. "These whales are not statistics; they are living beings enduring unimaginable suffering caused by human activities," Brogan said. The whales migrate every year and usually arrive in Cape Cod Bay in early winter and stay until around the middle of May. They give birth off the coasts of Georgia and Florida and are slow to reproduce, which is one of the reasons conservationists say they can't withstand additional mortality. The whales were once abundant off the East Coast, but they were decimated during the era of commercial whaling. They have been federally protected for decades.

Report highlights 234 new species discovered in the Greater Mekong region- A lizard with a name that sounds like it could star in Game of Thrones, a soft furred hedgehog, a high-altitude crocodile newt, a freshwater fish already well-known among aquarium enthusiasts, and a new genus of palm tree are just some of the of the 234 species described by scientists in the Greater Mekong region of Southeast Asia in 2023, according to a report released today by the World Wildlife Fund (WWF). With many of the species already under threat of extinction from human activities, WWF is calling on governments in the region to increase conservation of these rare, amazing creatures and their habitats. The report documents the work of hundreds of scientists from universities, conservation organizations and research institutes around the world who discovered 173 species of vascular plants, 26 reptiles, 17 amphibians, 15 fishes and three mammals in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand and Viet Nam. This brings the total number of vascular plants and vertebrate animals described in the Greater Mekong region since 1997 to 3,623. "Although these species were just described by science last year, they have been living in the unique habitats of our region for many millennia," said Chris Hallam, WWF-Asia Pacific regional wildlife lead. "Each of these species is a critical piece of a functioning, healthy ecosystem and a jewel in the region's rich natural heritage. And the researchers are equally as precious. They are working passionately and tirelessly to describe these species under trying conditions, unfortunately often with little resourcing.">Species are discovered in a variety of different ways. Some are collected during field visits and sit in natural history museums and botanical gardens for years—sometimes for decades before they are analyzed and identified. Gernot Vogel, one of the researchers who contributed to the discoveries highlighted in the report, emphasizes the importance of these collections, calling them "the memory of life on our planet." Sometimes, species are found in trade, as is the case with many orchid and aquarium fish species. "We must ensure that these species are described and understood so that we don't lose them to overexploitation before they're ever described in the wild," said Jedsada Taweekan, WWF-Greater Mekong's Illegal Wildlife Trade regional program manager. Biodiversity in the Greater Mekong is under intense pressure from habitat loss and degradation, overexploitation including from the illegal wildlife trade, climate change, pollution, invasive species and diseases, according to the Living Planet Report. To stop wildlife declines, WWF works with communities, governments and many others to better understand species, strengthen their conservation, and address critical threats like wildlife crime and overexploitation.

Habitat loss stokes rabid jackal attacks in Bangladesh -- Few in the Jahan family's remote Bangladeshi village had seen a jackal up close before the morning one stalked Musqan through the paddy fields, pounced on her, and maimed the four-year-old for life. Violent and unprovoked attacks by rabid canines are rising around the South Asian nation due to rampant deforestation and habitat loss -- a trend experts say has been worsened by climate change. Musqan is still recovering from the horrific injuries she sustained in the mauling last month by the rabid jackal. While she is rabies-free thanks to prompt treatment, her face is disfigured by bite wounds and one of her eyes remains swollen shut. "It happened in broad daylight," her aunt Ishrat Jahan told AFP. "A jackal pushed her to the ground and blindly bit her. Other villagers later killed it, but they are still traumatized by what happened." Golden jackals like the one that maimed Musqan are slender, wolf-like creatures found across Bangladesh, about the same size as a greyhound but lighter in weight. What made the attack on Musqan unusual was its timing -- she was bitten in the daytime, but golden jackals are a nocturnal species. Animal researcher Zoheb Mahmud of Independent University in Dhaka told AFP that his studies of golden jackals over eight years showed that the "gradual erosion of habitats" had altered their behavior. "I found the once-shy creatures had begun staring at us," he said. "They are supposed to come out in the evening or at night, but we saw them during the day." Urbanization and logging have led to major human encroachment on the habitats where much of Bangladesh's jackal population resides. According to monitoring group Global Forest Watch, Bangladesh last year lost 17,800 hectares (44,000 acres) of forest cover -- an area roughly three times the size of Manhattan. Mahmud warned that jackal attacks on humans "would not stop" if the habitat loss continued. Bangladesh is one the countries ranked most vulnerable to climate change, and there are signs that more extreme weather is making attacks more likely. The country saw widespread flooding in September that displaced millions of people in the worst-hit areas for the second year running, with floodwaters coursing through forests and driving out their canine inhabitants. "Due to the flood, the jackals lost their dwellings and food," jackal bite victim Obaidul Islam told AFP from Nilphamari in the country's north. "So they came and bit more than a dozen people in our village." Rakibul Hasan Mukul, executive director of civil society wildlife group Arannayk, told AFP that climate change was driving more extreme and frequent flooding in Bangladesh. He said changes to the weather were also eroding farmlands, displacing their human inhabitants and prompting them to cut down more forests. "The loss of land has also resulted in increased conflicts between humans and wildlife," he added. "People are cutting bushes around wetlands and their homesteads for farming. As a result, small mammals are in crisis, losing their habitats."

Rising drought frequency poses new threats to US wildlife, study finds< People around the world are dealing with drought, so it's not shocking that it affects wildlife, too: lack of moisture contributes to habitat loss, affects how animals compete for resources, and leads to dehydration and heat stress. The surprising part? The extreme degree to which many animals may need to adapt. New research predicts that many wildlife species in the continental United States will experience year-long droughts nearly five times as often in the coming decades (2050–2080) than they did historically (1950–2005). In an even more dramatic turn of events, three-year droughts may become nearly seven times more frequent. The research is published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment. "The degree of increased drought exposure for each species in our analysis strongly depends on future greenhouse gas concentrations," said Dr. Merijn van den Bosch, the lead author of the study. "But even under a lower-concentration scenario, virtually all vertebrates face increased year-long and multi-year droughts in the second half of this century. The implications will depend on the species and the length of the drought." For example, the endangered giant kangaroo rat, which is native to dry habitats in California, has adapted to occasional short droughts. However, populations can plummet after multi-year droughts, compounding existing threats, including a loss of nearly all their historic habitat. This study shows that much of the remaining giant kangaroo rat range could soon face these longer droughts much more often. "That does not bode well for this already-endangered species," said van den Bosch. Observed changes in drought exposure. Credit: Communications Earth & Environment (2024). DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01880-z Likewise, the ranges of many game species whose populations are not currently at risk—including certain ducks and other waterfowl and ungulates like elks—also will face more frequent year-long and three-year droughts in the future. This trend could have implications for wildlife and game management. Scientists aimed to identify areas with both high biodiversity and large predicted increases in drought to provide information about places where adaptive water management or habitat restoration could benefit the most wildlife species. They used state-of-the-art modeling techniques to predict future scenarios based on six different projections of temperature and moisture conditions. Then, they compared the frequency of observed and projected drought exposure to the range maps of 349 birds, 339 mammals, 280 amphibians, and 253 reptile species and created regional summaries. It turned out, after they adjusted for land area, that the southwestern United States had the highest number of different species, the highest number of drought-threatened species, and the highest predicted change in drought exposure. "Some of the areas expected to see the greatest increase in drought, such as the southwestern U.S., are already quite dry," said Dr. Zack Steel. "Many species living in these regions are adapted to periodic droughts, but the concern is that if they are already near the limit of what they can tolerate, the large increase in drought we're expecting can have grave consequences for these ecosystems and the wildlife that depend on them."

Feds propose protection for giant salamanders devastated by Hurricane Helene -- You never forget your first time seeing a giant salamande. who works as the Watauga Riverkeeper for MountainTrue, a nonprofit protecting natural ecosystems in western North Carolina, home to part of the Blue Ridge Mountains. He was a teenager, standing thigh-high in the Watauga River outside Boone, North Carolina, casting a line on an early fall day when he saw his first eastern hellbender. The salamander stretched 2 feet long and was camouflaged among rocks beneath the clear water. The ancient species, which evolved on the supercontinent Pangaea and outlived the dinosaurs, was submitted for federal protection Friday by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. If the proposal is adopted after a period of public comment, the creatures will be protected under the Endangered Species Act. Their population in the U.S. has rapidly declined in recent decades; dams, industry and even flooding worsened by climate change have threatened their habitat and ability to reproduce and find food. Today, just 12% of eastern hellbenders are successfully reproducing. Hellbenders in the Blue Ridge Mountains had been considered the healthiest population of the eastern subspecies but were devastated this fall by Hurricane Helene. Thousands were displaced or found dead amid rubble. Others were found in flooded church basements and returned to the river. But some rivers are so polluted, there's still a "do not touch" advisory for people. Tierra Curry burst into tears when she learned of the proposed protection. "I just think it's a moral failure that we're pushing them to the brink of extinction," said Curry, a senior scientist at the Center for Biological Diversity. The slimy, brown creature with a broad, flat head may never win a beauty contest, but it is famous as the largest amphibian in North America. The Watauga River, where eastern hellbender salamanders are released, runs near Boone, N.C., June 26, 2024. This area is about 12 miles from the dam where the salamanders are collected. Credit: AP Photo/Mike Stewart, File The hellbender breathes dissolved oxygen in the water through its skin. Water that becomes slow-moving, warm or polluted holds less oxygen. Over the past five years, two dams were removed on the Watauga River to help improve water quality and reconnect hellbender communities. The most recent one came down this summer—and two months later, Helene upended life not just for people, but also for animals like the salamander. For those working to ensure the species' survival, the newly proposed federal protection couldn't come soon enough, said Erin McCombs, Southeast conservation director for American Rivers. "We have to be paying more attention to the health of our nation's rivers and streams, and that means paying more attention to the critters that live in them," she said. "When species like the hellbender, which are reliant on free-flowing and clean water, are declining, alarms need to be going off, because we'll feel the impacts next." The Center for Biological Diversity petitioned and won protection for the Ozark subspecies of hellbenders in 2011 and for Missouri hellbenders, another population of eastern hellbender, in 2021. The group sued, seeking protection for all eastern hellbenders. As of this week, all hellbenders in the U.S. are protected or slated for protection under the Endangered Species Act.

Surveys show full scale of massive seabird die-off due to Pacific Ocean heat wave - Murres, a common seabird, look a little like flying penguins. These stout, tuxedo-styled birds dive and swim in the ocean to eat small fish and then fly back to islands or coastal cliffs where they nest in large colonies. But their hardy physiques disguise how vulnerable these birds are to changing ocean conditions. A University of Washington citizen science program—which trains coastal residents to search local beaches and document dead birds—has contributed to a new study, led by federal scientists, documenting the devastating effect of warming waters on common murres in Alaska. In 2020, participants of the UW-led Coastal Observation and Seabird Survey Team, or COASST, and other observers first identified the massive mortality event affecting common murres along the West Coast and Alaska. That study documented 62,000 carcasses, mostly in Alaska, in one year. In some places, beachings were more than 1,000 times normal rates. But the 2020 study did not estimate the total size of the die-off after the 2014–16 marine heat wave known as "the blob." In this new paper, published Dec. 12 in Science, a team led by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service analyzed years of colony-based surveys to estimate total mortality and later impacts. The analysis of 13 colonies surveyed between 2008 and 2022 finds that colony size in the Gulf of Alaska, east of the Alaska Peninsula, dropped by half after the marine heat wave. In colonies along the eastern Bering Sea, west of the peninsula, the decline was even steeper, at 75% loss. The study led by Heather Renner, a wildlife biologist at the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, estimates that 4 million Alaska common murres died in total, about half the total population. No recovery has yet been seen, the authors write. "This study shows clear and surprisingly long-lasting impacts of a marine heat wave on a top marine predator species," said Julia Parrish, a UW professor of aquatic and fishery sciences and of biology, who was a co-author on both the 2020 paper and the new study. "Importantly, the effect of the heat wave wasn't via thermal stress on the birds, but rather shifts in the food web leaving murres suddenly and fatally without enough food." The "warm blob" was an unusually warm and long-lasting patch of surface water in the northeast Pacific Ocean from late 2014 through 2016, affecting weather and coastal marine ecosystems from California to Alaska. As ocean productivity decreased, it affected food supply for top predators including seabirds, marine mammals and commercially important fish. Based on the condition of the murre carcasses, authors of the 2020 study concluded that the most likely cause of the mass mortality event was starvation.Before this marine heat wave, about a quarter of the world's population, or about 8 million common murres, lived in Alaska. Authors estimate the population is now about half that size. While common murre populations have fluctuated before, the authors note the Alaska population has not recovered from this event like it did after previous, smaller die-offs.While the "warm blob" appears to have been the most intense marine heat wave yet, persistent, warm conditions are becoming more common under climate change. A 2023 study led by the UW, including many of the same authors, showed that a 1 degree Celsius increase in sea surface temperature for more than six months results in multiple seabird mass mortality events.

Severe ice storm hits Iowa, causing dozens of crashes, widespread travel disruptions - A severe ice storm caused dangerous travel conditions across central and eastern Iowa on December 13 and 14, 2024, leading to dozens of crashes and power outages. YouTube video. The storm’s timeline included freezing rain starting in southwestern Iowa by the evening of December 13 and spreading to central and eastern parts of the state later that night and into Nebraska and Missouri, creating significant ice accumulations. By the early hours of December 14, over 50 car crashes were reported in Iowa, Nebraska, and Missouri. Areas like Grinnell, Waterloo, Cedar Rapids, and Ottumwa appear to be the hit hardest, while Des Moines also experienced disruptions early on December 14. Cedar Rapids reported the highest amounts, with nearly 13 mm (0.5 inches) of ice reported. The worst power outages have been reported in SE Iowa, where over 15 000 customers were left without power. The National Weather Service (NWS) issued multiple Ice Storm Warnings, cautioning that slick roads and freezing fog would make travel hazardous. “Traveling will be very hazardous after midnight tonight and through the morning hours tomorrow, and even potentially as we go late morning,” meteorologist David Cousins warned. Many untreated roads turned icy overnight, leading to dozens of accidents by the morning of December 14. In Omaha, Nebraska, similar conditions led to the closure of Interstate 80 for over 8 hours. In Iowa, major highways like US 63 and Interstate 880 reported multiple crashes and reduced visibility. The Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) advised residents to avoid non-essential travel and use the Iowa 511 travel tool for updates. Des Moines International Airport also experienced delays as icy conditions affected flights.

Rare Scotts Valley tornado injures 5, overturns vehicles in shopping district, California - A rare tornado touched down in Santa Cruz County’s Scotts Valley, Northern California on Saturday, December 14, 2024, causing 5 injuries and significant damage, including flipped cars, downed power lines, and uprooted trees. This event was part of a larger weather system that also led to San Francisco’s first-ever Tornado Warning. YouTube video. According to a damage survey by the National Weather Service (NWS), damage from the tornado began near the intersection of Mount Hermon Road and Lockwood Lane, continuing southeast along Mount Hermon Road and ending just short of Kings Village Road. The tornado touched down at approximately 13:39 local time (LT) on Saturday, west of Scotts Valley, and ended at around 13:44 LT, west-southwest of Scotts Valley. Estimated peak winds reached 145 km/h (90 mph), with a path length of 500 m (0.31 miles). “The tornado has caused extensive damage in several areas, including overturning several vehicles in and around the shopping district,” police stated in a news release. Reports indicate that at least five people were injured. Four of them have been released from the hospital, while one remains hospitalized with a punctured lung. The individual’s condition is described as non-life-threatening.

Subtropical Storm Biguá hits Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil - Powerful winds and torrential rains produced by Subtropical Storm Biguá wreaked havoc across the Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul since its formation on Saturday, December 14, 2024. The storm toppled trees and power lines, and damaged homes, buildings, and infrastructure, leading to at least two injuries in Butiá. Satellite image of Subtropical Storm Bigua at 13:20 UTC on December 15, 2024.

• Cyclone Biguá, a rare subtropical weather system for December, brought destructive winds of up to 100 km/h (62 mph) and torrential rain to Rio Grande do Sul, causing widespread damage and disruptions across the region.
• The cyclone caused power outages in at least five cities, including significant disruptions in Camaquã and Pelotas. Infrastructure damage included the collapse of a sports facility roof in Butiá, injuring two individuals.
• While the remnants of Biguá are expected to be absorbed by an extratropical cyclone, unstable weather with sporadic rain and wind gusts continues across parts of Rio Grande do Sul, especially in the eastern half.

Subtropical Storm Biguá formed off the coast of the Brazil – Uruguay border on Saturday, December 14, and was confirmed and named by the Brazilian Navy. This is the first subtropical storm to impact the Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul since May 2022 when Subtropical Storm Yakecan stalled off the coast, setting record lows for the year and claiming two lives in Uruguay. It is also the first subtropical storm to impact Rio Grande do Sul in December. Sorry, the video player failed to load. (Error Code: 104153) Biguá brought heavy rain and winds of up to 100 km/h (62 mph), causing power outages across five cities. Significant power disruptions were reported in Camaquã and Pelotas, with teams actively working to restore electricity. Power outages also impacted the valleys and metropolitan areas along the Serra region. The exact number of affected residents remains unclear. In Butiá, the roof of a sports facility collapsed during a children’s event, injuring two people, one of whom had to be rescued from under the debris. Property damage was also reported in Triunfo, Encantado, and Pelotas, with fallen trees and roof damage documented.

Chido strikes Mayotte as most violent and destructive cyclone in 90 years - The Tropical Cyclone Chido made catastrophic landfall over the island of Mayotte on Saturday, December 14, 2024, as a category 4 equivalent cyclone. Reports suggest two fatalities linked to the storm with widespread damage being reported across the island. Satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Chido making landfall in Mayotte at 07:30 UTC on December 14, 2024. The island’s capital city was almost completely destroyed. “Our island is being hit by the most violent and destructive cyclone since 1934. Many of us have lost everything,” Mayotte prefect François-Xavier Bieuville said. The cyclone brought winds of 180 to 230 km/h (112 to 143 mph), causing significant damage across the island, downing electric poles, ripping roofs off homes, and uprooting trees. The local government instructed the approximately 320 000 residents on the islands to remain confined as the storm moved through the region. Authorities converted around 70 schools and gyms into shelters, while the road traffic was prohibited, and the airport was closed. The weather service predicted that conditions would improve from late Saturday. A cyclone alert was issued for the neighboring Comoros archipelago, where airports were closed. Residents in Madagascar, to the east, reported flooding. Visuals shared online show several structures destroyed due to the system’s landfall over the island while reports also suggest two fatalities linked to the storm. Between 09:00 and 11:00 UTC on Saturday, the cyclone displayed a symmetrical eye, indicative of a well-organized and intense system. Very cold cloud tops surrounded the eyewall, suggesting vigorous convection. By 12:00 UTC, the eye appeared less symmetrical and defined, while the central dense overcast looked more ragged. The cyclone was in a favorable environment conducive to its maintenance and potential strengthening, with a strong radial outflow observed over the system. Vertical wind shear, the difference in wind speed and direction with height, ranged from 28 – 37 km/h (17 – 23 mph), a level that supports storm development. Sea surface temperatures of 29 – 30 °C (84 – 86 °F) were warm enough to sustain the system. Maximum sustained winds were estimated at approximately 222 km/h (138 mph), while the AMSR2 microwave wind speed image showed winds of around 213 km/h (132 mph).

Chido strikes Mozambique after catastrophic landfall in Mayotte - Tropical Cyclone Chido made landfall in Mozambique on Sunday, December 15, 2024, after devastating the island of Agalega and leaving at least 14 people dead as it moved directly over Mayotte.

• Tropical Cyclone Chido made landfall over Mozambique around 04:00 UTC on Sunday, December 15, with maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h (115 mph) — making it a Category 3 hurricane equivalent.
• Before making landfall in Mozambique, Chido claimed at least 14 lives during its landfall in Mayotte, with 246 people seriously injured and nine suffering life-threatening injuries.
• Chido was the strongest cyclone to hit Mayotte since 1934, surpassing the intensity of Cyclone Kamisy in 1984.
• The cyclone intensified rapidly after forming on December 10, with wind speeds doubling from 111 km/h (69 mph) to 222 km/h (138 mph) within 24 hours, reaching Category 4-equivalent status multiple times before landfall.

Chido made landfall over Mozambique around 04:00 UTC on Sunday, December 15, with maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h (115 mph) — making it a Category 3 hurricane equivalent on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. This also makes it the strongest tropical cyclone to impact Mozambique since Kenneth in 2019. The cyclone intensified as it crossed the Mozambique Channel overnight on Saturday, making landfall on Sunday morning about 40 km (25 miles) from the coast. Communication was cut off from the port city of Pemba (population 202 000) after 07:00 local time (LT) on Sunday as the cyclone affected the region with significant intensity, according to Aderito Aramuge, director of the National Institute of Meteorology in Mozambique. Network and power outages are widespread. The storm was expected to bring thunderstorms and strong winds, with gusts of up to 260 km/h (160 mph), to Cabo Delgado and Nampula Provinces. More than 250 mm (10 inches) of precipitation was expected in the 24 hours following landfall.Tropical Cyclone Chido formed in the Southwest Indian Ocean Basin on Tuesday, December 10, as the third named storm of the 2024/25 Southwest Indian Ocean Cyclone season. Rapid intensification began soon after formation, with wind speeds increasing from 111 km/h (69 mph) to 222 km/h (138 mph) within 24 hours by 21:00 UTC on Wednesday, December 11.The system made landfall over Agaléga North Island on Thursday as a Category 4-equivalent intense tropical cyclone. It was the strongest cyclone to hit the island since Cyclone Andry in 1983. The system devastated the island, forcing citizens to seek shelter at the airport.Following its landfall over Agaléga, the system re-intensified into a Category 4-equivalent intense tropical cyclone, moving towards Mayotte with winds of up to 210 km/h (130 mph).Chido brushed past Madagascar prior to its landfall over Mayotte on Saturday. The system caused no material damage to the island as it passed roughly 100 km (62 miles) north of Antsiranana. Both Antsiranana and Vohémar were placed under Red Alert.Although the system caused no damage in Madagascar, residents in Antsiranana reported experiencing long power outages starting at 08:00 LT on Friday, along with intermittent rainfall. Chido made landfall over the French Indian Ocean territory of Mayotte on Saturday, December 14, as a category-4 equivalent cyclone, prompting authorities to issue the highest alert and instructing all individuals, including rescue operatives, to seek shelter.The island’s capital city was almost completely destroyed.Chido was the strongest cyclone to strike Mayotte since 1934, even exceeding the intensity of Tropical Cyclone Kamisy in 1984.“Our island is being hit by the most violent and destructive cyclone since 1934. Many of us have lost everything,” Mayotte prefect François-Xavier Bieuville said.The cyclone brought winds of 180 to 230 km/h (112 to 143 mph), causing significant damage across the island, downing electric poles, ripping roofs off homes, and uprooting trees. The local government instructed the approximately 320 000 residents on the islands to remain confined as the storm moved through the region.At least 14 people were reported dead on December 15, with reports of several homes and other infrastructure damaged by the storm. Nine people suffered life-threatening injuries, while 246 others were seriously injured.

Before-and-after satellite images show Agalega after Cyclone Chido’s direct hit – The Tropical Cyclone Chido made landfall over the island of Agalega (population 330) on December 11 with winds of 222 km/h (138 mph), making it a Category-4 equivalent cyclone. Significant infrastructure damage has been reported on both islands, with reports indicating that several homes and schools have been damaged. Residents of the North Island have reportedly sought shelter at the airport. Chido brought strong wind gusts and storm surge up to 8 m (26 feet), destroying most of the island’s homes and schools, and cutting off communications with the island. Mauritian Minister Shakeel Mohamed announced that a Mauritian Coast Guard Dornier aircraft was en route to provide assistance. Additionally, an Indian cargo plane is expected to join the relief efforts. Following its landfall over Agelega, the cyclone’s center moved just north of northern Madagascar and then made a direct impact on Mayotte on December 14, devastating the island with torrential rains, storm surges, and destructive winds reaching 220 km/h (136 mph). The impact caused widespread destruction, flattening homes, uprooting trees, and severely damaging critical infrastructure, including hospitals and the island’s airport. Power and communication lines were disrupted, leaving much of the population isolated. Initial reports estimate that one-third of Mayotte’s 320 000 residents have been rendered homeless, while severe shortages of drinking water and medical supplies are complicating rescue and recovery efforts. Authorities have deployed emergency teams, but access to some areas remains challenging due to blocked roads and floodwaters. On December 16, Mayotte officials expressed fears the death toll could climb significantly, with hundreds, if not thousands, still unaccounted for. The full extent of the damage and human toll is yet to be determined.

Tropical Cyclone Chido ‘spares nothing’ in Mayotte, thousands feared dead - The Watchers (2 videos) Tropical Cyclone Chido, the strongest storm to impact Mayotte in 90 years, struck the island on Saturday, December 14, 2024, claiming at least 21 lives, injuring over 830 people, and leaving one-third of the island’s 320 000 residents homeless. Authorities fear the death toll could rise to several hundred or even thousands as the full extent of the devastation becomes clear. Tropical Cyclone Chido struck Mayotte, a French Indian Ocean Territory, on December 14 as a category 4-equivalent cyclone — the most powerful cyclone in 90 years. The cyclone brought winds of 180 to 230 km/h (112 to 143 mph), causing significant damage across the island, downing electric poles, ripping roofs off homes, and uprooting trees. The local government instructed the approximately 320 000 residents on the islands to remain confined as the storm moved through the region. Scenes of catastrophic destruction emerged on December 15, and by early December 16, authorities confirmed 21 deaths and over 830 injuries. However, local officials, including Health Minister Geneviève Darrieussecq, cautioned that these numbers are likely underestimates given the extensive scale of the disaster. The French government’s top representative in Mayotte, Prefect François-Xavier Bieuville, said he believes they will definitely have several hundred deaths. “Maybe we will reach a thousand or even several thousand.” Approximately 100 000 people were relocated to 70 emergency centers, while 15 000 others experienced power outages. The cyclone caused severe damage to the island’s hospital, leaving health centers non-operational. Aerial footage shared by French gendarmerie forces revealed the wreckage of hundreds of makeshift houses scattered across the hills of one of Mayotte’s islands. Rescue operatives clearing out Debris in Mayotte. Image credit: Gendarmerie Nationale “The hospital has suffered major water damage and destruction, notably in the surgical, intensive care, maternity, and emergency units,” Minister Darrieussecq said. “Medical centers were also non-operational,” she added. “The hospital is hit, the schools are hit. Houses are totally devastated,” said Ambdilwahedou Soumaila, the mayor of Mamoudzou, the capital of Mayotte, adding that the cyclone had “spared nothing.” At least one-third of Mayotte’s population of 320 000 have lost their homes due to the cyclone, according to the outgoing Minister of the Interior, Bruno Retailleau. Ibrahim, a Mayotte resident, described the scene as “apocalyptic” as he attempted to reach the west of the main island on Sunday morning, December 15. “Even the biggest companies suffered damage,” he said. Minister Retailleau traveled to Mayotte on Monday, December 16, accompanied by 160 soldiers and firefighters who joined the 110 personnel already deployed to the islands. A first aid plane carrying three tonnes of medical supplies, blood for transfusions, and 17 medical staff had landed in Mayotte at 15:30 local time (LT) on Sunday. Two military aircraft were expected to follow. The full extent of the damage remains unclear.

Severe dust storms hit Iraq and Iran - Severe dust storms swept across Iraq and Iran on Saturday, December 14, 2024, injuring at least 65 people and prompting officials to close schools and cancel flights. In Iran, the storm was described as one of the worst in recent years. A severe dust storm blanketed the Iraqi capital, Baghdad, on December 14, reducing visibility in some areas to just a few meters. The storm’s intensity led to widespread medical emergencies across the country, with 65 individuals in Saladin Province seeking medical assistance for breathing difficulties on December 14. The affected were treated at a hospital in Balad district. People venturing outside were advised to wear surgical masks or cover their faces with scarves for protection. The streets appeared desolate as residents struggled against the thick layers of airborne dust. State-run media confirmed the suspension of all flights in the affected areas until conditions improve. In neighboring Iran, the same dust storm wreaked havoc in the oil-rich provinces of Khuzestan and Bushehr, over 400 km (250 miles) southwest of Tehran. Local reports indicated visibility dropped to just 100 m (330 feet), forcing schools and public services to shut down for the day. In Abadan, located in Khuzestan Province, air quality levels reached a hazardous index value of AQI 500 on December 15, exceeding World Health Organization (WHO) standards for acceptable pollution levels by more than 25 times. Residents donned masks and stayed indoors to limit exposure to the storm, which was described as one of the most intense in recent years. Dust and sandstorms, while common in the region, have intensified over recent years. Experts attribute this to deforestation, overuse of river water, overgrazing, and prolonged droughts. Iran, with its population of over 85 million, has experienced repeated droughts and flooding, exacerbated by environmental mismanagement and shifting weather patterns. In September 2023, a severe dust storm in Sistan-Baluchistan province left 3 dead and over 1 300 hospitalized.

Historic glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) recorded in East Greenland - Scientists recorded one of the top three largest glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF) in global history between September 23 and October 11, 2024, when Eastern Greenland’s Catalina Lake dropped by 154 m (505 feet) and released 3.4 km³ (0.82 mi³) of water into Scoresby Fjord. This marks the first time ever that researchers have monitored such an event and measured water volumes in real-time. Lake Catalina after the GLOF event. Image credit: University of Copenhagen

• This Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) released about 3.4 billion tons of water, placing it among the top three largest measured by volume in global history and the top 10 by outflow rate.
• It marks the first time researchers monitored such an occurrence in real-time using satellite imagery, overcoming challenges like polar night and cloud cover.
• The flood resulted from meltwater accumulation over 20 years, which lifted the Edwards Bailey Glacier and carved a 25 km (16 miles) long tunnel, eventually releasing water into the world’s largest fjord.

The outburst occurred over approximately 20 days, with a peak discharge rate of 7 200 m³/s (254 000 feet³/s), more than double the peak flow of Niagara Falls. The outburst flood was triggered by 20 years of meltwater accumulation in Catalina Lake, located in a valley blocked by the Edwards Bailey Glacier. Rising water pressure lifted the glacier, carving a 25 km (16 miles) long tunnel beneath it and releasing the water into the world’s largest fjord. “We have previously found traces of similar outburst floods. However, due to polar night and cloud cover obstructing satellite observations, this is the first time researchers have monitored such an event and measured water volumes in real-time,” said Aslak Grinsted, a climate researcher at the Niels Bohr Institute.

Widespread damage, casualties reported after major M7.3 earthquake hits Port-Vila, Vanuatu - (2 videos) A very strong earthquake registered by the USGS as M7.3 hit Vanuatu at 01:47 UTC (12:47 LT) on December 17, 2024. The agency is reporting a depth of 57.1 km (35.5 miles). EMSC is reporting M7.4 at a depth of 28 km (17 miles). The epicenter was located about 30 km (19 miles) W of Port-Vila (population 35 901), and 188 km (117 miles) SSE of Lakatoro (population 705), Vanuatu. 65 000 people are estimated to have felt severe shaking, 27 000 very strong, 25 000 strong and 68 000 moderate. Based on all available data, hazardous tsunami waves are forecast for some coasts, NWS PTWC reported at 02:21 UTC, forecasting possible waves 0.3 to 1 m (1 – 3 feet) above the tide level for some coasts of Vanuatu. The tsunami threat has passed by 03:14 UTC. Residents were urged to remain observant and exercise normal caution near the sea. The quake was followed by numerous moderate to strong aftershocks. The USGS issued a Yellow alert for shaking-related fatalities and economic losses. Some casualties and damage are possible and the impact should be relatively localized. Past yellow alerts have required a local or regional-level response. Estimated economic losses are 1-9% GDP of Vanuatu. Overall, the population in this region resides in structures that are highly vulnerable to earthquake shaking, though some resistant structures exist. The predominant vulnerable building types are unknown/miscellaneous types and wood construction. Recent earthquakes in this area have caused secondary hazards such as tsunamis and landslides that might have contributed to losses. m7.3 earthquake vanuatu december 17 2024 location map Image credit: TW/SAM, Google Locals reported the shaking lasted for about 30 seconds. Many buildings were damaged or destroyed, including the ones in the center of Port Vila — Vanuatu’s capital. At least one person was confirmed dead, but there are fears the number could rise as rescuers continue digging through rubble. A complex in the capital Port Vila, which hosts diplomatic missions of Western nations, including the United States, was also damaged, with one section of the ground floor partially collapsed and windows shattered. Dan McGarry, a local journalist, described it as a violent earthquake… more violent than any that he’s seen in the last 21 years living in Vanuatu. McGarry said a mass casualty triage center was established outside of Port Vila Central Hospital. Major landslides were reported near the capital.

Earthen dams around Svartsengi Power Plant raised to defend against future lava flows, Iceland - A civil defense project to further raise earthen dams around the Svartsengi Power Plant was initiated on December 9, 2024. The effort aims to safeguard the infrastructure against future lava flows. Authorities in Iceland are raising protective earthen dams near the Svartsengi Power Plant to shield it from potential lava flows resulting from future volcanic eruptions. The dams, located northeast and northwest of the facility, are being elevated by 4 to 6 m (13 to 20 feet) — which would bring their final heights to approximately 14 to 27 m (45 to 90 feet), depending on the specific section. “This is done solely to protect the power plant. After every single event, we need to reassess the situation, and now our most skilled experts have made lava flow models, and all these models indicate that if we have an event comparable to the last one, then the power plant is in danger,” Guðrún Hafsteinsdóttir, Minister of Justice, during a government meeting, focused on the urgency of these measures. The ongoing project requires approximately 250 000 m3 (8.8 million ft3) of material, at an estimated cost of ISK 1 to 1.25 billion ($9 to 11 million). The expenditure for the barriers, including previous construction efforts, now surpasses ISK ($72 million). “If we lose the power plant for even a few days, the associated costs will run into billions every day. I assess this as a necessary civil defense response to ensure that both life and business operations can continue normally in Reykjanes,” Minister Hafsteinsdóttir reiterated the necessity of these efforts and explained. The protective barriers around the Svartsengi Power Plant have undergone several construction phases to safeguard against volcanic activity. Initially, in November 2023, plans were made to construct barriers approximately 6 to 8 m (20 to 26 feet) high.

Geoengineering Could Alter Global Climate. Should It? - The concept of using technology to change the world’s climate, or geoengineering, has been around for a couple of decades, although so far it has been limited to modeling and just a handful of small-scale outdoor experiments. Throughout that time, the idea has remained contentious among environmental groups and large swaths of the public. “I think the very well-founded anxiety about experiments like this is what they will lead to next and next and next,” said Katharine Ricke, a climate scientist and geoengineering researcher at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and the School of Global Policy & Strategy at the University of California San Diego. In the best-case scenarios, successful geoengineering experiments could put a pause on or slow down the warming of Earth’s climate, buying time for decarbonization and perhaps saving lives. But other possibilities loom too: for example, that a large-scale experiment could trigger droughts in India, crop failures, and heavy rainstorms in areas that are wholly unprepared. Indeed, skeptics sometimes associate geoengineering with supervillain behavior, like a famous episode of The Simpsons in which the robber baron Mr. Burns blocks the sun. They warn that outdoor experiments could set humanity down a slippery slope, allowing powerful billionaires or individual countries to unleash hazardous technologies without input or agreement from the public more broadly, all of whom would be affected. Such an approach could also distract people from expanding decarbonization efforts. “Geoengineering doesn’t tackle the root causes of climate change; it’s arranged to counter some of the impacts, but it involves intervening in Earth’s systems at an absolutely enormous scale,” said Mary Church, the geoengineering campaign manager for the Fossil Economy program at the Center for International Environmental Law. But now that human-caused climate change has accelerated, and with devastating effects already underway around the world, what previously appeared to be a risky Hail Mary technofix has gained respectability. Some scientists, including Ricke, as well as some environmentalists, political officials, and business leaders now call for tests of geoengineering technologies that could one day be used in an ambitious, or perhaps desperate, attempt to artificially cool the planet. Such outdoor experiments, these proponents argue, could demonstrate a particular approach’s utility and finally assuage critics’ concerns. Talk of solar geoengineering has become so widespread that people on the fringe, like Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Donald Trump’s pick to head the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, have even espoused the conspiracy theory that the government, or Bill Gates, is already funding such experiments, through airplanes’ “chemtrail” emissions (which have always been of water vapor, not secret chemicals). The stakes are high. Climate change is already changing nearly every realm of life across the planet, driving searches for all conceivable solutions, including ones that look risky. If people one day decide to proceed with some kind of geoengineering, they’ll first have to show that it’ll work, that it’ll be safe, and that the risks are bearable. There’s no clear course on who gets to make such decisions, though. With no overarching governance on a technology that could — and will, if it works as intended — have global effects, current rules and regulations on smaller solar geoengineering experiments in the United States are limited to the local and state governments where such experiments may take place, which are ultimately led by officials with different perspectives and levels of expertise. (The lack of global governance has prompted government scientists in the U.S. and elsewhere to monitor the atmosphere for evidence of geoengineering experiments.) Modern geoengineering schemes date back to the early 2000s, when scientists first suggested an unprecedented experiment: If they dumped iron filings in the ocean, the material could spark vast phytoplankton blooms that would in turn draw in carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Afterwards, the algae would eventually die and sink to the ocean floor, the theory suggested, taking the carbon down, too. Such an experiment isn’t without risk. When agricultural run-off enters the ocean, for instance, pesticides and artificial fertilizers have caused toxic algae blooms, posing problems for fisheries and public health. Still, in 2004, a team led by oceanographer Victor Smetacek at Germany’s Alfred Wegener Institute tested the concept with several tons of iron sulfate in an iron-poor region near Antarctica, which indeed produced a phytoplankton bloom that began sinking a week later. Such activities were subsequently restricted by an updated version of an international accord called the London Convention and Protocol, which forbids polluting oceans with wastes, including dumping iron nutrients, except for “legitimate scientific research.” Then in 2012, rogue businessman Russ George took a ship off the Pacific coast of British Columbia and dumped some 100 tons of iron sulfate into the water. Critics debated whether George’s project violated international law, and no researcher has pursued iron fertilization since. Other, more speculative geoengineering ideas have been developed by researchers over the years, too. For instance, astronomers have proposed strategies that would be deployed in space and partially block the Earth from the sun, such as launching a giant, tethered shield shade between them, or periodically blasting moon dust into space. It’s an out-there idea, said Benjamin Bromley, a University of Utah astrophysicist who led a study on the possibilities for lunar dust and who concedes he’s ventured out of his lane. “But it’s absolutely worth exploring. We would hate to miss an extraordinary opportunity to buy us some more time, should the critical measures we take on Earth fail.”

CME impacts Earth, sparking G1 geomagnetic storm - A coronal mass ejection (CME) produced on December 13, 2024, impacted Earth at 05:19 UTC on December 17, sparking G1 – Minor geomagnetic storming. The K-index reached 5 at 08:07 UTC, with effects limited to areas poleward of 60 degrees geomagnetic latitude. Enhanced solar wind conditions, driven by a positive polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS), are expected to continue through December 18. Meanwhile, solar activity remains low, with a 30-40% chance of M-class flares and a 5% chance of X-class flares through December 19. real time solar wind 1020 utc december 17 2024 Real-time solar wind at 10:20 UTC on December 17, 2024. Credit: NOAA/SWPC Conditions are conducive for at least G2 – Moderate storming while some forecasters expect even G3 – Strong geomagnetic storming today. Geomagnetic K-index of 5 (G1 – Minor geomagnetic storm) threshold was reached at 08:07 UTC. Area of impact is primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. This is the lowest level geomagnetic storm on the NOAA scale. Potential impacts include weak power grid fluctuations, minor impact on satellite operations and aurora at high latitudes.

Exceptionally fast, Extremely Rare CME launched from farside of the Sun -A powerful coronal mass ejection (CME) with an estimated speed of 3 161 km/s erupted on the Sun’s farside around 16:00 UTC on Tuesday, December 17, 2024. Image credit: ESA/NASA LASCO A fast-moving halo CME was first observed in LASCO imagery around 16:00 UTC on December 17 following a powerful eruption on the farside of the Sun. No radio emissions were detected, and Earth-facing imagery confirms that this event was a result of a farside eruption, not directed toward Earth. The CME was classified as an ER-type (Extremely Rare) by CCMC DONKI (Community Coordinated Modeling Center’s Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information), with an estimated speed of approximately 3 161 km/s (1 964 miles/s). This speed is notably higher than some of the fastest historically recorded CMEs, such as those associated with the 2003 “Halloween storms,” which were recorded at speeds below 3 000 km/s. If it had been Earth-directed, we’d be looking at G5 – Extreme geomagnetic storming on December 18 and 19. “This is truly an exceptionally rare kind of CME,” said Jure Atanackov, geologist and researcher associated with the Geological Survey of Slovenia (GeoZS) who reported extensively about this exceptional event. “Few recorded CMEs are as fast or faster than this one (~3 161 km/s). The 23 July 2012 far side event, known as the ‘Carrington event that missed us’ clocked in at ~3 300 km/s. The 2003 Halloween G5 storm CMEs were slower, <3 000 km/s.” This is the fourth farside CME in the past 10 days, indicating the presence of a highly active sunspot currently hidden from view. This active region is likely located in the southern hemisphere near the central meridian. As the Sun rotates, Earth will face this active region next week.

Biden Sets New Emissions Targets in a Final Flurry of Climate Action - As his final weeks in the White House wind down, President Joe Biden and his top aides are making a home-stretch sprint on climate action, finalizing multibillion-dollar clean-energy loans, supporting state-level action on EVs and setting a new national target for greenhouse gas reductions. "I'm proud to announce an ambitious new goal: cut greenhouse gas emissions by more than 60 percent by 2035," Biden said in a video statement released by the White House Thursday. The new target to control carbon pollution from across the economy is the latest U.S. commitment to meet targets in the international Paris Agreement on climate change. President-elect Donald Trump, who will return to office next month, is likely to pull the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement, as he did in 2017 during his first term in office. But Biden and his climate advisers said work to fight climate change and shift to a clean-energy economy will continue. "American industry will keep inventing and keep investing," Biden said. "State, local and tribal governments will keep stepping up." The new climate target is part of a flurry of action this week by the Biden administration to get climate spending and policies in place before Trump takes office and attempts to roll back environmental regulations and unwind clean-energy supports. "The Biden-Harris administration may be about to leave office, but we're confident in America's ability to rally around this new climate goal," White House senior adviser for international climate policy John Podesta said in a press briefing on Wednesday previewing the announcement. Podesta said it is important to send a signal both to state and local governments in the U.S. and to other countries that despite the change in federal government, there will still be ambitious work on the issue. "President Trump may put climate action on the back burner, but the work to contain climate change is going to continue in the United States with commitment and passion and belief," Podesta said. In another major climate announcement on Wednesday, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Michael Regan approved requests from California air quality officials to enforce the state's tough new standards on clean cars and trucks. Under the Clean Air Act, California can request a waiver from the EPA to enact stricter emissions standards on vehicles to address the state's chronic air quality problems. The EPA granted waivers for California's new program to address smog-causing emissions from heavy trucks and its Advanced Clean Cars II regulations. The ACC II rules are projected to sharply reduce disease related to air pollution and limit greenhouse gases from transportation. The program would phase out sales of new gas-powered cars by 2035, accelerating the market for EVs. "Today's actions follow through on EPA's commitment to partner with states to reduce emissions and act on the threat of climate change," Regan said in a statement.

Model suggests Earth's subsurface may hold up to 5.6 × 10⁶ million metric tons of natural hydrogen -- A pair of geologists with the U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, has created a model that shows Earth's subsurface may hold up to 5.6 × 10⁶ million metric tons of natural hydrogen. In their study, published in the journal Science Advances, Geoffrey Ellis and Sarah Gelman added factors to a geological model to produce estimates regarding the likely amount of hydrogen in parts of the Earth. Prior research has shown that hydrogen can be produced artificially by applying electricity to water molecules to break them apart, leaving oxygen and hydrogen. Hydrogen is also produced naturally, via chemical reactions between rocks when they come into contact with one another. But until relatively recently, it was thought that very little hydrogen was made this way.When geologists found huge natural reservoirs of hydrogen gas in Albania and West Africa, that thinking changed. Now, researchers believe that there are huge stores of hydrogen below our feet—the question remains, however, how to find it.In this new study, the researchers made estimates regarding the likely amount of hydrogen contained in rocks and reservoirs in the Earth's subsurface, which is loosely defined as the stratum.To make their estimates, they used a model that has been created over time by geologists who have been adding hydrogen characteristics, such as where it has been found thus far and in what quantities, and the rates at which it is known to be produced by natural processes. They then began adding other known factors, such as the amount of hydrogen in reservoirs and how much is leaking out from hydrogen-containing rocks.The model showed there to be anywhere between 1 billion and 10 trillion tons of hydrogen in the subsurface—the researchers used averages to narrow the number down to 5.6 × 10⁶ million metric tons. They readily acknowledge, however, that most of that hydrogen is probably inaccessible, but they also point out that harvesting just 2% of it could provide all of humanity's energy needs for approximately two centuries.

Tanker Ships Are Now Being Fitted With Sails To Cut Carbon Footprints -Ever seen a massive tanker ship...with wind sails? You might soon.That's because the Sohar Max, a 400,000-deadweight-ton vessel, was just retrofitted with five 35-meter rotor sails at China's COSCO Zhoushan shipyard, according to Bloomberg. The purpose is to reduce fuel use by 6% and cut annual carbon emissions by 3,000 tons. Bloomberg reported that the shipping industry already faces regulatory pressure to reduce emissions. Rotor sails remain uncommon, and the adoption of wind technologies hinges on cost savings. Their appeal may grow as shippers transition from oil to pricier, cleaner marine fuels, the report says.Nick Contopoulos, chief production and partnerships officer at Anemoi Marine Technologies, said: “There’s definitely an uptick in the adoption of wind propulsion and not just rotor sails, but other technologies too.” California, for example, just expanded its emissions regulations at its port, DNV wrote last month. Starting January 1, 2025, California will expand its emissions regulations for vessels at ports.Initially introduced in 2007 for container, passenger, and refrigerated-cargo ships, the rules now include Ro-Ro and tanker vessels. Ships must control emissions of NOx, PM 2.5, and reactive organic gases by connecting to onshore power, using approved exhaust capture systems, paying into a remediation fund, or adopting alternative fuels.Tanker vessels face phased compliance, starting with the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in 2025 and all California terminals by 2027. Most other emissions standards are "primarily governed by the International Maritime Organization (IMO)" and "require ships operating in designated Emission Control Areas (ECAs) to meet stricter sulfur fuel limits and engine emission standards".

Attacking Newsom’s climate agenda, environmental activists launch ad campaign in battleground states - Environmental activists have launched a six-figure campaign attacking California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s (D) climate record, through an advertisement airing in four battleground states.Food & Water Action, the lobbying arm of the national group Food & Water Watch, is behind a 30-second ad slamming Newsom for failing to make good on promises to shut down the contentious Aliso Canyon natural gas storage facility. “Americans are looking for leadership to resist Trump’s assault on our climate. Someone who follows through and won’t back down,” the ad states. “But his public utilities commission is considering keeping it open indefinitely — just like the oil and gas industry wants.”Aliso Canyon, located just northwest of Los Angeles, was home to the country’s biggest-ever methane leak, which forced families to flee the area in 2015.While campaigning for governorship in 2018, Newsom told a reporter that he was “fully committed” to shutting down the facility.“It was Governor Newsom himself who, at the start of his first term, said that he was committed to closing down Aliso Canyon,” Andrea Vega, senior Southern California organizer for Food & Water Watch, told The Hill in a recent interview.“He had even directed his public utilities commission to expedite the closure,” Vega added.Yet last December, the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) approved an increase in the facility’s inventory levels. The decision, the CPUC said at the time, served “to guard ratepayers from the type of natural gas price spikes that occurred last winter.”CPUC was expected to vote this Thursday on a proposed decision that would keep Aliso Canyon running while also charting its eventual decommissioning — but with no definitive closure date. Amid protests from activists that the terms were insufficient, the CPUC announced last week that it would instead vote Thursday to extend the decision’s statutory deadline until March 31, 2025.The new ad campaign — to be aired in New Hampshire, Michigan, South Carolina and Nevada — aims to ramp up pressure on the state government to shut down a site that activists believe is both a public health hazard and unnecessary, according to Food & Water Action. “Governor Newsom wants to position himself as a national leader on climate and in opposing Trump, but he can’t be a credible national leader if his own house is not in order” Mitch Jones, deputy director of the lobbying group, said in a statement.

EPA will let California ban sales of new gas cars by 2035 - The Environmental Protection Agency plans to grant California permission to set stronger climate rules for cars and SUVs — a move that President-elect Donald Trump could attempt to reverse — according to two people briefed on the matter. The EPA intends to issue California a waiver as soon as next week to enforce its rule aimed at banning sales of new gasoline-powered cars in the state by 2035, said the two people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment publicly. The Trump administration will probably try to revoke the waiver, although those efforts could run into legal obstacles.

Can Coal Ash Solve the Rare Earth Supply Chain Crisis? --Coal ash is currently a hot topic in United States politics. Just yesterday, the Supreme Court ruled to allow the Biden administration to move forward with a plan to address toxic coal ash, in the latest update in a drawn-out legal battle over monitoring and remediation of the toxic substance. But while coal ash is a noted hazard to public health and the environment, it could also be a key new resource for the clean energy transition.Millions of tons of coal ash, a byproduct of burning the world’s dirtiest fossil fuel, are currently sitting in ponds and landfills across the United States. The U.S. alone produces around 110 million tons of it each and every year, and then stores it in basins known as ponds. These ponds are vulnerable to leaks and spills, withcatastrophic consequences for the communities that house them. “Coal ash contains significant concentrations of chemicals like arsenic, boron, lead, selenium and mercury, each of which poses serious dangers to human health and the environment,” a group of environmentalists stated in a brief for the aforementioned Supreme Court case. “Among other things, exposure increases rates of skin, liver, bladder and lung cancer as well as risks of neurological, psychiatric and cardiovascular harm.”But one man’s neurological, psychiatric and cardiovascular poison is another man’s treasure, apparently. The high concentrations of metals found in coal ash, while dangerous for human and planetary health if left to leach into groundwater and blow into the air, could be critical for the renewable revolution. Scientists at the University of Texas at Austin recently analyzed coal ash collected from power plants across the country and found that the country’s coal ash reserves could contain up to 11 million tons of rare earth elements. That’s nearly eight times the amount of rare earths that the United States already has in reserve, and could be worth approximately $8.4 billion. “Even though the level of rare earth elements in coal ash is relatively low when compared with those mined from geological deposits, the fact that the ash is readily available in large quantities makes it an attractive resource,” Texas Geosciences reports. The paper’s co-author Davin Bagdonas, a research scientist at the University of Wyoming, adds: “There’s huge volumes of this stuff all over the country,” Bagdonas said. “And the upfront process of extracting the (mineral host) is already taken care of for us.”Tapping into this resource could have major implications for the domestic clean energy revolution, and even for U.S. national security. Currently, the world relies on China for about 75% of its rare earth minerals, as Beijing has a veritable chokehold on supply chains and refining capacities. This is already shaping up to be a major geopolitical issue. Just last week, China announced a ban on the export of certain rare earth minerals to the United States. The decision came as the latest development in an escalating tech trade was between the world’s two largest economies, and was announced just one day after the Biden administration placed increasing limitations on Beijing’s access to advanced U.S. technologies. “This is just the first step and a warning to the incoming administration in Washington,” says Zhiqun Zhu, a political scientist at Bucknell University in Pennsylvania.This rare-earth trade war is certain to escalate under Trump’s upcoming second presidential term, which promises to usher in a new era of competing tariffs and geopolitical posturing between Washington and Beijing. “China’s quest for a larger share of critical minerals is significant because it is expected to use them as retaliatory tools against the U.S. if Washington decides to dramatically increase tariffs on Chinese goods, as President-elect Donald Trump has said he would do,” Voice of America reportedthis week. In light of this geopolitical minefield, the discovery of a veritable treasure trove of easily extractable rare earths here on U.S. soil couldn’t have come at a better time.

Coal stockpile grows, causing financial and storage dilemmas: Report - American power producers over the past two years have accumulated massive amounts of coal that are now sitting idle at their facilities — creating financial and storage headaches for utilities and coal miners alike, a new analysis has found. The coal stockpile has reached about 138 million tons, or about the equivalent of the quantity of coal that Appalachia is expected to produce in 2025, according to the report, published Monday by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. These mountains of coal are not only creating storage problems, but they are also posing financial challenges — piling up to about $6.5 billion in unused inventory, based on an average $47.22 per ton delivery rate, per the analysis. “No power producer wants that much money idly sitting around,” the report authors stated. “But it has become much harder to burn that coal without losing money.” The authors attributed these difficulties to lower natural gas prices, as well as a surge in solar and wind generation, which have made coal-fired electricity much less competitive. In addition, they noted that the occurrence of electricity price spikes during summer heat waves and winter cold snaps have declined. As such, U.S. coal plants now burn a total of only about 1 million tons per day, half as much as they did in 2015, according to the analysis. Meanwhile, coal deliveries have been dwindling for more than 15 years — falling from more than 80 million tons a month in 2008 to potentially less than 20 million tons during some months of 2025, per the report. Given the buildup in coal stockpiles, the authors warned that at a certain point, power providers will buy a lot less of the resource from coal producers. The analysis also estimated that due to the U.S. energy transition, another 13 gigawatts of the country’s remaining 173 gigawatts of coal-fired capacity will retire by 2025. “The longer that mountain of coal persists, the deeper the delivery cuts and ultimately production cuts will have to be,” the authors added.

Industrial polluters send Trump a deregulatory wish list - More than a hundred industrial trade groups and chambers of commerce are urging President-elect Donald Trump to weaken or eliminate numerous Biden administration regulations on energy, air pollution, recycling, worker heat protections, consumer safeguards and corporate financing, claiming that the rules are “strangling” the nation’s economy. In a 21-page letter addressed to Trump and his presumptive Cabinet, the groups requested changes to dozens of “burdensome regulations that are stifling investment, making us less competitive in the world, limiting innovation and threatening the very jobs we are all working to create right here in America.” Among other actions, the Dec. 5 letter urges Trump to resume exports of liquefied natural gas, support legislation boosting the use of nuclear energy, repeal new emission standards for coal- and gas-fired power plants, relax newly proposed standards for soot and PFAS “forever” chemicals, pause implementation of worker heat standards, limit the Food and Drug Administration’s food traceability requirements and fight efforts to impose “right-to-repair” rules, which provide consumers with tools and instructions to fix their damaged electronics instead of throwing them away. The document has raised alarm among many environmental and consumer safety advocates, although legal experts say such changes would probably see many legal and procedural challenges. “This is a wish list for unchecked exposure to toxic chemicals, more air pollution, dirty drinking water, contaminated food, unsafe workplaces and fewer consumer protections,” said David Michaels, a professor of Environmental and Occupational Health at George Washington University. “If these corporate demands are met, we will see higher rates of cancer and heart disease in adults and asthma attacks in children, more outbreaks of food borne illnesses, workers sickened or dying from heat, and extreme weather events that will bring tremendous loss of life and property.” Ken Alex, director at the Center for Law, Energy and Environment at UC Berkeley, said the letter closely mirrors the spirit and text of Project 2025, especially the 900-page document’s pro-fossil fuel agenda. The signatory trade groups include powerful industry associations such as the American Chemistry Council and the American Forest and Paper Assn., as well as smaller ones such as the Pool and Hot Tub Alliance and National Lime Assn. “We look forward to working with the Trump administration and the new Congress to drive pro-growth, science-based policies that support growing domestic chemical production right here at home and help make America the world’s manufacturing superpower,” said Scott Openshaw, senior director of advocacy communications for the American Chemistry Council. Notably, none of the large automotive groups are included as signatories — although there is representation by the Motorcycle Industry Council, the RV Industry Assn. and the Recreational Off-Highway Vehicle Assn. “That’s super interesting because they have a whole bunch of proposals to preclude limitations to internal combustion engines and a lot of things about cable pipe emissions,” said Alex, suggesting those must instead be from the oil companies. And automakers “at least as I understand it are interested in moving to electric vehicles, because that’s where they’re seeing the industry heading. So the absence of the automakers here is pretty significant, in my view.” In addition, as researchers and policy experts had anticipated soon after the election, the groups requested that the new Trump administration keep President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act in place. While manufacturers initially opposed the tax and price control provisions of the law, they wrote, “the energy tax incentives in the law have spurred investments in new technologies that will power manufacturing growth for decades.... A wholesale repeal of the credits will have a disastrous implication for these investments and the jobs that come with them.” Alex said that as brazen as the letter is in terms of its depth and breadth of deregulatory “asks,” it is “fair in many contexts to recognize that some regulations and permitting requirements are onerous and difficult. There needs to be some sensitivity to that, and just because it comes from the American Chemistry Council doesn’t mean that there’s not some validity to some of those claims.” However, he said, the letter really “underscores the importance and need for rigorous agency evaluation for having staff that have expertise and scientific background.... I fear that some of these proposals are going to be considered high priority to be implemented without full consideration.”

EIA Expects USA Energy Consumption to Rise - Total U.S. energy consumption will rise from 93.69 quadrillion Btu (qBtu) in 2023 to 94.18 qBtu in 2024 and 95.15 qBtu in 2025. That’s according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest short term energy outlook (STEO), released earlier this month, which projected that the country’s total energy consumption will come in at 23.86 qBtu in the fourth quarter of this year. Demand will be 24.70 qBtu in the first quarter of 2025, 22.24 qBtu in the second quarter, and 24.11 qBtu in the third and fourth quarters of next year, the STEO forecast. Consumption was 24.39 qBtu in the first quarter of 2024, 22.21 qBtu in the second quarter, and 23.72 qBtu in the third quarter, the report revealed. In its previous STEO, which was released in November, the EIA projected that total U.S. energy consumption would come in at 94.08 qBtu in 2024 and 94.90 qBtu in 2025. That STEO put 2023 demand at 93.65 qBtu. The EIA’s previous STEO saw total U.S. energy demand coming in at 23.75 qBtu in the fourth quarter of 2024, 24.61 qBtu in the first quarter of 2025, 22.18 qBtu in the second quarter, 24.01 qBtu in the third quarter, and 24.11 qBtu in the fourth quarter. That STEO put demand at 24.39 qBtu in the first quarter of this year, 22.21 qBtu in the second quarter, and 23.74 qBtu in the third quarter. U.S. liquid fuels consumption will average 20.29 million barrels per day in 2024 and 20.53 million barrels per day in 2025, according to the EIA’s December STEO, which projected that U.S. natural gas demand will average 90.5 billion cubic feet per day this year and 90.2 billion cubic feet per day next year. The country’s liquid fuels demand came in at 20.28 million barrels per day in 2023, the STEO showed. Its natural gas consumption was 89.1 billion cubic feet per day last year, the STEO revealed. In its previous STEO, the EIA projected that U.S. liquid fuels consumption would average 20.32 million barrels per day this year and 20.51 million barrels per day next year. That STEO forecast that U.S. natural gas demand would average 90.0 billion cubic feet per day in 2024 and 89.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2025. The November STEO’s overall 2023 U.S. liquid fuels and natural gas demand figures were the same as the December STEO’s. In its December and November STEOs, the EIA notes that conversion from physical units to Btu is calculated using a subset of conversion factors used in the calculations of gross energy consumption in EIA’s Monthly Energy Review. The Energy Institute’s (EI) latest statistical review of world energy, which was released earlier this year, showed that U.S. primary energy consumption came in at 94.28 exajoules in 2023. That figure was 1.2 percent down year on year and represented 15.2 percent of total primary energy consumption in 2023, the review highlighted. From 2013 to 2023, U.S. primary energy demand has grown by an average of 0.2 percent every year, the review outlined. The U.S. was the country with the second highest primary energy demand figure in 2023, according to the review, which showed that China had the highest consumption figure last year, at 170.74 exajoules. That figure marked a 6.5 percent year on year increase and 27.6 percent of total primary energy demand in 2023, the review pointed out. From 2013 to 2023, China’s primary energy demand has grown by an average of 3.4 percent every year, the review outlined. The EI notes in its review that primary energy comprises commercially traded fuels, including modern renewables used to generate electricity. Energy from all sources of non-fossil power generation is accounted for on an input-equivalent basis, the review adds.

What will happen to home electrification incentives under Trump? -The election of Donald Trump throws a big question mark over the fate of clean energy investments under President Joe Biden’s signature climate law, the Inflation Reduction Act. During his campaign, Trump promised to roll back IRA funds, including billions of dollars for households to buy new heat pumps, rooftop solar, electric vehicles, and other clean energy alternatives.It’s too soon to say how many of Trump’s pledges will end up materializing. Climate advocates argue that one reason for optimism is the proven popularity of the IRA’s consumer incentives. In 2023, over 3.4 million households received $8 billion in tax credits to make their homes more energy efficient — more than double the amount projected by federal officials.Still, there’s ​“a very real possibility” that the next administration will shave down home energy rebates and tax credits, said Ingrid Malmgren, senior policy director at the EV advocacy groupPlug In America.That’s because the incoming Republican-majority Congress will likely extend tax cuts passed under Trump in 2017, which the Congressional Budget Office estimates would add close to $5trillion to the national debt over the next decade. Lawmakers looking to offset that cost have signaled that IRA-related funding, including consumer incentives like the federal EV tax credit, could be on the chopping block.The clean energy advocates that Canary Media spoke to stressed that if you want to benefit from household rebates and tax credits — which can offset up to 30 percent of the cost of home electrification and energy efficiency upgrades — the sooner you act, the better.“Regardless of the politics in Washington, consumers across the country should be taking advantage of these incentives to cut their energy bills as soon as they can,” said David Friedman, senior director of federal policy at the electrification nonprofit Rewiring America.Here’s what we know so far about the future of IRA money for households under the Trump administration — and how you can make use of existing incentives in the next few months.

Oklo targets 12 gigawatts of new nuclear power in deal with data center operator -Nuclear startup Oklo aims to deploy 12 gigawatts of power over the next two decades through a framework agreement with data center operator Switch, the companies announced Wednesday. Oklo would deploy what amounts to a fleet of small nuclear reactors through 2044, with power generation equivalent to the annual electricity consumption of more than 9 million households in the U.S. Oklo would develop, build and operate the small nuclear plants. It would sell the electricity to Switch through a number of power purchase agreements for its data centers across the U.S. Oklo and Switch have not signed any individual power purchase agreements yet. Oklo's stock closed nearly 4% lower on Wednesday. The broad agreement signed by Oklo and Switch is a nonbinding framework that sets high level goals to execute against, Oklo CEO Jacob DeWitte told CNBC in an interview. It creates a vehicle to advance large scale, multi-site power development and deployment, DeWitte said. Oklo is a startup backed by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman that is developing micro nuclear reactors. Altman is Oklo's chairman, and the company made its market debut in May through a merger with his SPAC, AltC Acquisition Corp. Oklo has a market capitalization of $2.33 billion. Switch is a privately held company headquartered in Las Vegas that designs, builds and operates data center campuses in the U.S. CEO Rob Roy said Switch is committed to deploying advanced nuclear power "at a transformative scale for our data centers" through the relationship with Oklo. Oklo is developing reactors that are much smaller than those in the current U.S. fleet. Its reactors are expected to range in power capacity from 15 megawatts, to 50 megawatts, to 100 megawatts or more. By comparison, the average reactor in the U.S. is currently around 1,000 megawatts. The reactors that would service Switch would primarily be 50 megawatts, DeWitte said. Oklo would have to build 240 reactors of that size by 2044 to meet the 12 gigawatt deployment goal. Oklo thinks its microreactors will reduce the costs associated with building new nuclear plants, slash construction timelines, and give power customers more flexible options. Oklo has not deployed a reactor yet. The company aims to bring its first plant online at Idaho National Laboratory in Idaho Falls in 2027.

Radioactive spill reported in Northeast Ohio nuclear power plant-- At least 78 gallons of water containing radioactive chemicals were spilled at the Perry Nuclear Power Plant in Lake County in 2024, according to a voluntary report from its parent corporation, Texas-based Vistra Corp. In its report to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Vistra says that on Oct. 14, “manipulation of a lid upon a container holding radiological waste” in an outdoor radiologically-controlled area spilled “contaminated water from the container” onto the ground of the Lake County facility. When plant personnel conducted subsequent research into the event, they found that a total of “78.5 gallons of contaminated water had spilled to the ground” since January 2024, according to the report. Vistra described that figure as a “conservative” estimate. A representative from Vistra told cleveland.com that this was because the “storage cask lid was not tightly sealed,” allowing rainwater to enter the cask and “causing it to overflow.” Vistra calculated its estimate of 78.5 gallons of spilled contaminated water by using the recorded rainfall from January to October of this year, the representative said. Two chemicals contaminated the water, according to the report. The first was cobalt-60, which can cause cancer if someone is exposed to it over a long period, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The second was the less-toxic manganese-54. Energy Harbor, a former FirstEnergy subsidiary that became its own company in 2019, owns and operates the plant. Vistra writes in the report that the spill has not caused the public to receive a dose above the allowable limits of the chemicals. “There was no impact on the health and safety of the public or plant personnel,” the report said. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission told cleveland.com that the quantity of spilled chemicals would not “negatively impact public health and safety” as “plants may make low-level releases into the environment in liquid or gaseous forms” as long as they don’t exceed NRC limits. Still, a representative from the commission said that incidents like the one at the Perry Nuclear Power Plant “should not happen.” At the time of the October spill, Vistra said it took precautionary actions by removing the storage container from the area and covering a storm drain to prevent further migration into the stormwater system. A third-party company has also instituted a sampling plan to monitor an adjacent stream that was impacted by the spill, the report said. The spill was reported to authorities on Oct. 29, along with another incident in which a generator was determined to be inoperable during a “monthly surveillance run,” according to a second report filed with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. In May, the Perry Nuclear Power Plant closed so inspectors could find and repair a coolant leak. Perry Nuclear Power Plant was expected to close in 2021 because it was no longer profitable compared to natural gas plants. This was initially avoided when Ohio House Bill 6 was signed into law in July 2019. H.B. 6 added a fee to residents' utility bills that funded subsidies of $150 million per year to keep Perry and the Davis–Besse nuclear plant operational. However, the state blocked the collection and distribution of the H.B. 6 nuclear bailout fee. This was partly due to H.B. 6 being part of the Former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder’s $60 million bribery scheme to benefit FirstEnergy Corp, which Energy Harbor was a subsidiary of at the time. Vistra purchased Energy Harbor for more than $3.4 billion in 2023. Vistra also operates seven natural gas, oil and coal power plants throughout the state.

Antis Pressure OH Gov. to Veto Bill Extending Fracking of State Land -- One week ago, MDN told you that Ohio House Bill (HB) 308 had passed votes by both the full House and Senate and was heading to the desk of RINO Gov. Mike DeWine for his signature (see OH Senate Passes Bill Extending Time Drillers Can Frack State Land). HB 308 extends the standard lease terms for drillers who want to drill under (not on) state-owned land from three to five years. The bill also extends the total amount of time fracking operations can last from six to eight years. Sensible increases in both cases. This morning, the radicals of Save Ohio Parks (and their friends) issued a press release demanding (notice the left always demands) that Gov. DeWine veto the bill. Because they say so.

Huge Majorities in Ohio Oppose Fracking Our State Parks, but State Leaders Just Ignore All Concerns... By Marilou Johanek, Ohio Capital Journal -- Who do Ohio lawmakers represent in the fracking free-for-all carving up acres of our state parks and public land for oil and gas money? They sure as heck don’t represent the people. Public resistance to fracking in Ohio state parks is almost universal. Ever since a Republican-facilitated law went into effect last spring thatrequired a state commission to lease huge tracts of state parks and wildlife areas for fracking for natural gas, opposition from park-loving Ohioans has only grown. Recently, the Oil and Gas Land Management Commission fielded public comments from nearly 600 citizens about pending oil and gas company bids to frack under almost 900 acres of Salt Fork State Park. The vast majority — about 98% — opposed more fossil fuel drilling in the state’s largest park, a rural recreational magnet for tens of thousands of yearly visitors. People know that the risks and harms of fracking for public health and the climate are real and growing. Besides a history of leaking loads of planet-warming methane into the atmosphere and eroding local air quality, fracking industrial zones and wells threaten groundwater — including drinking water. The drilling process involves injecting enormous quantities of fluid (mixed with a cocktail of chemicals) deep into the earth at super-high pressure to fracture rock formations and extract methane gas or oil.Evidence of a correlation between those fracking operations and an array of reported health problems by those who live near a fracked oil or gas well is building — all of which explains the negative feedback from thousands of Ohioans on more fracking where they live and play. Their dissent is fortified by hundreds of scientific studies and countless expert witnesses who document how fracking can go wrong, poison water, contaminate the air and emit massive amounts of greenhouse gas pollution. But last week, the state’s oil and gas commissioners ignored the alarms and dismissed the pleadings of people to protect their parks. Panel members, most of whom have close oil and gas associations, sided with the fracking industry again. One of the few pro-fracking voices in favor of more oil and gas extraction in Salk Fork and other public land was surprisingly the director of the Ohio Department of Natural Resources. But before Mary Mertz endorsed further destruction of our state parks and pristine wildlife sanctuaries for short-term profit, she at least asked that the winning out-of-state drillers use their “best efforts” to catch water contamination in local wells and to minimize other polluting impacts of industrialized fracking on the surrounding community. How reassuring to the people who inhabit fracked regions of the state — or to the millions who retreat to them every year to fish, hunt, hike, kayak or camp. Surely, state lawmakers have taken measure of the enduring public protest against fracking and the defilement of Ohio’s natural playgrounds. Surely, they responded accordingly as elected representatives of the people. Surely, visions of sugar plums dance in your head because only two days after the commissioners awarded hundreds of acres in Salt Fork to the “highest and best” Big Energy bidders and parceled out more acreage in state wildlife areas for fracking, statehouse Republicans also awarded the polluters of parks a Christmas bonus.They tucked a last-minute gift to the fracking industry into an unrelated bill (on nuclear energy) with a sneaky provision to extend the standard lease terms of contracts to frack under state parks from three years to five. That stretched thetotal amount of time drillers from Texas, West Virginia, Colorado, etc., can spoil Salt Fork and other Ohio natural resources from six to eight years. The lame-duck measure quickly sailed through the legislature to the governor’s desk. Republicans voted to expand fracking in state parks despite the recent groundswell of constituent objection to that very expansion. In doing so, the GOP-gerrymandered supermajorities in the General Assembly made clear who they represent when oil and gas money is on the table and state parks are cash cows to be milked for all they’re worth. Human and environmental consequences be damned.These politicians didn’t listen to, care about, or even feign representation of Ohioans fighting valiantly to save our beloved parks. They just green-lit constant fracking in those parks. More well pads, pipelines, gas flares, industry accidents, leaks, chemical runoff, contaminated water, fracking truck traffic, 24/7 noise, transient workers, decimated wildlife, destroyed ponds, streams, roads, property values and public health. That is not a representative government that serves the people. That is unaccountable autocrats, cocooned in safe districts, doing whatever the hell serves them. Republican Gov. Mike DeWine could, of course, block the lawmakers’ sellout of citizens and veto the bill to enrich big oil and gas companies — who are also big GOP donors. But the guy solely responsible for the fracking free-for-all under Ohio state parks and protected wildlife terrain won’t.DeWine infamously caved to the fracking industry over the clamor of outraged Ohioans in 2023 when he signed another last-minute, industry-friendly Republican bill that forced state agencies to grant lease applications to oil and gas drillers in state parks. That is his sorry legacy. DeWine will quietly cave again because money talks in Ohio and tragically plunders the peoples’ parks for cheap gas.

Infinity Natural Resources Picks Up Another 7 Banks for Utica IPO - Marcellus Drilling News - MDN reported that in early October that Infinity Natural Resources (INR) filed an IPO with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) hoping to raise $100 million (seeM-U Driller Infinity Natural Resources Files for $100 Million IPO). Citigroup, Raymond James, and RBC Capital Markets were the original Big Bank underwriters. At the end of November, INR added another seven Big Banks to the list as underwriters.

Ohio Utica Shale Attracted $108 Billion Investment by End of 2023 - Marcellus Drilling News -- JobsOhio, a private, nonprofit corporation that works on behalf of the state to drive job creation and new capital investment in Ohio by attracting business, contracts out economic research to Cleveland State University (CSU) to keep tabs on the Utica Shale industry. JobsOhio released the latest CSU updated report yesterday (full copy below), showing that more than $108 billion has been invested in Ohio across natural gas, natural gas liquids, and petrochemical supply chain industries since 2011. Massive! Read More

Encino CEO Says Ohio Utica Oil Boundaries Likely to Expand | Marcellus Drilling News - We've brought you the news (a number of times) of how Encino Energy was the first driller to figure out how to coax large quantities of oil from the Ohio Utica Shale (see Oil Prod. in Northern Utica Comes Alive – Encino Cracks Oil Code). According to Encino founder and CEO Hardy Murchison, the oil window could extend well beyond its current geography. Murchison says, "It could be years or even a decade before we know the full extent of the [Ohio Utica oil] play."

Return of the Wildcatters – Utica Oil Drillers Grow Organically - Marcellus Drilling News -- Oil wildcatting is the process of drilling exploratory wells in areas with little to no history of oil and gas production. Wildcatting is a high-risk activity that involves drilling in unproven or fully depleted areas. Wildcat wells are often drilled far from other wells and without the use of well logs or other geological data. Wildcatting can be profitable—or spectacularly unprofitable. A recent Hart Energy article reports that “wildcatting is back.” The very first part of the article focuses on wildcatting that is happening in the Ohio Utica Shale.

Ohio Court of Appeal Addresses Whether Gathering and Transportation Are Separate and Distinct Post-Production Activities - As we approach the 20^th anniversary of the Marcellus Shale play, one issue remains constant: the ongoing debate over the deduction of post-production costs. Landowners all across Pennsylvania have spent countless hours negotiating royalty clauses that they believed prohibited or, in some cases, limited such deductions. Despite those efforts, drillers keep deducting post-production costs regardless of the actual language in the parties’ oil and gas lease. See, Federal District Court Injects Confusion into Definition of Gross Royalty Under Pennsylvania Law (June 2021). For example, let’s assume you own 150 acres in Butler County. In 2020, you negotiate a new oil and gas lease with ABC Drilling. Your goal was to negotiate a cost-free royalty. ABC Drilling pushed back on your language but agreed to limit deductions to certain enumerated costs. The landman from ABC Drilling inserts language into the addendum that says only “transportation, compression and dehydration costs” may be deducted. He assures you that only the costs incurred moving the gas on the interstate pipeline network will be deducted. You reluctantly agree and sign the lease. Last week you receive your first royalty statement. The statement shows deductions for “gathering” and “fuel”. This must be a mistake. You call ABC Drilling. They inform you that there is no mistake: the costs to gather and collect the raw gas falls within the transportation deduction authorized by the lease. You politely explain to the ABC Drilling representative that only costs incurred on the interstate pipeline network should be deducted and that “gathering” costs are incurred prior to those interstate pipelines. ABC Drilling ignores your plea and continues to deduct gathering costs from your royalty. You are shocked, angry and confused. Are gathering costs separate and distinct from transportation costs? Does one necessarily include the other? And how can ABC Drilling unilaterally re-write your lease and expand the scope of permissible deductions? See, Texas Supreme Court Issues Troubling Decision in Royalty Dispute (March 2022). A recent decision from the Ohio Court of Appeals addressed the thorny question of whether gathering and transportation costs should be considered one in the same for deduction purposes. At issue in EAP Ohio LLC v. Sunnydale Farms LLC, et al. (24-CA-0974 Seventh Appellate District, September 11, 2024) were thirteen (13) oil and gas leases that were executed in 2008 and 2009 in Carroll County, Ohio (the “2008 Leases”). The 2008 Leases contained an identical royalty clause which provided as follows: To pay the Lessor, as royalty for the gas marketed and used off the premises and produced from each well drilled thereon, the sum of one-eighth (1/8) of such gas so marketed and used at the price paid to the Lessee per thousand cubic feet, measured in accordance with Boyles Law for the measurement of gas at varying pressures, on the basis for 10 ounces 14.73 pounds atmospheric pressure at a standard base temperature of 60 degree Fahrenheit without allowance for temperature and barometric variations less any changes for transportation, compression and/or dehydration to deliver the gas for sale. Payment of royalty for gas marketed during any calendar month to be on or about the 30^th day after receipt of such funds by Lessee. EAP Ohio LLC (“EAP”) acquired the 2008 Leases, drilled several shale wells and thereafter paid royalties to the Plaintiffs pursuant to the 2008 Leases. Despite the limitations set forth in the royalty clause, the royalty statements issued by EAP contained multiple “deduct codes” identifying specific post-production costs being charged against the Plaintiffs’ royalty. These “deduct codes” included: compression, dehydration, processing, treating, transportation, fuel and gathering. In July 2021, the Plaintiffs filed suit alleging a breach of the 2008 Leases. The Plaintiffs averred that the 2008 Leases only authorized three types of deductions: transportation, compression and dehydration. No more, no less. The Plaintiffs argued that the purported “gathering” costs were improper and unauthorized since gathering and transportation are separate and distinct post-production activities. According to the Plaintiffs, the costs incurred to collect the raw gas and move it though the gathering system to the central processing facility could not be deducted as a separate cost. The Plaintiffs argued that the mere movement of gas through any pipeline did not automatically authorize the deduction of that cost. On the contrary, the reference to the transportation in the 2008 Leases referred to a specific mid-stream operation that was differentfrom gathering. Transportation, the Plaintiffs argued, arises out of the movement of gas on the interstate pipeline network, which is an entirely separate and distinct pipeline system than the local gathering pipeline. The Plaintiffs’ theory urged the court to recognize gathering and transportation as separate and distinct costs that are unique to specific pipeline networks and operations. In addition, even if the gathering costs could be considered a form of transportation, the Plaintiffs nonetheless argued that such costs could not be deducted because they were not incurred “to deliver the gas for the sale.” The Plaintiffs contended that the gathering costs were incurred while moving the gas to the processing plant, not to the eventual point-of-sale. Conversely, the movement of the gas through the interstate pipeline network was delivering the “gas” for sale as most, if not all, gas sales occur on the interstate pipeline network. See, Kansas Court Rules That Gas Is Not Marketable Until It Reaches Interstate Pipeline (August 2020). As such, since there were no buyers or sales points on the gathering pipeline itself, the Plaintiffs argued that the alleged gathering costs were not incurred for the purpose of delivering the gas “for sale”. The deduction code for the gathering costs was therefore improper and a material breach of the 2008 Leases.In response, EAP argued that the granting clause and the royalty clause in the 2008 Leases both authorized the deduction of gathering expenses as another transportation cost. First, EAP argued that the plain meaning of the term “transportation” encompassed the movement of all gas, regardless of the physical location of the pipeline. According to EAP, the collection of gas and moving it through the gathering network was a form of transportation and, therefore, the costs could be deducted simply as another transportation cost. Second, EAP argued that Ohio regulations define a “gas gathering pipeline” as being “a pipeline used to collect and transport raw natural gas. . .” and further define “transportation of gas” as including the “gathering, transmission or distribution of gas by pipeline. . .” See, R.C. § 4905.90 (D) and Ohio Admin Code § 4901:1-16. Given these statutory definitions, EAP argued that Ohio law recognizes that gathering gas is a form of transportation. Third, EAP argued that Paragraph 1 of the 2008 Lease explicitly granted the lessee the right to construct, install and operate pipelines across the surface for the purpose of gathering the raw gas. Because Paragraph 1 deliberately used the term “transport”, EAP argued that the authors of the 2008 Leases intended that term to have a same meaning in the royalty clause. (i.e. transportation includes gathering). Finally, EAP argued that the Plaintiffs’ reading of the “deliver the gas for sale” clause was misplaced. EAP noted that gathering is simply the first stage of the delivery of gas for sale. And EAP further argued that since “compression” and “dehydration” often occur in connection with the gathering of the gas, the use of the term “transportation” in the royalty clause must be referring toany movement of gas. In essence, EAP urged the trial court to reject any physical limitation on the deduction of transportation costs: any cost incurred while moving the gas can be deducted, regardless of where or when it is incurred.Both parties moved for summary judgment. The trial court, relying on Webster’s Dictionary, observed that the definition of “transportation” is “an act, process or instance of transporting or being transported. . .” And that the term “transport” means “to transfer or convey from one place to another”. Given these definitions, the statutory definitions under Ohio law and the pipeline rights granted in Paragraph 1 of the 2008 Leases, the trial court opined that the 2008 Leases allowed EAP to pay royalties “less any changes for transportation, including transportation associated with gas gathering.” The trial court granted EAP’s motion and entered judgment in its favor. Plaintiffs promptly appealed to the Seventh Appellate District (the “Seventh District”). The Seventh District reversed. First and foremost, the panel concluded that the trial court erred by relying on the purported statutory definitions set forth in R.C. §4905.90 and Ohio Admin Code § 4901:1-16. These statutory definitions were not expressly adopted or referenced in the 2008 Leases and, therefore, they could not be relied upon as evidence of what the parties intended in the royalty clause. In addition, the panel further concluded that because the terms “gathering” and “transportation” were not defined in the 2008 Leases, the royalty clause itself was ambiguous and the issue could not be resolved at summary judgment. The panel found two ambiguities that precluded summary judgment. First, the Seventh District observed that gathering typically describes the collection of gas from multiple wells and funneling it into pipelines “from the wellhead meters directly to central processing or delivery facilities. . .” Conversely, transportation involves “the movement of gas through a pipeline’s principal transmission system.” The panel implicitly concluded that gathering and transportation are functionally and geographically distinct operations. And because of this difference, it was unclear, based on the actual language in the royalty clause, what expenses the lessee could deduct as “transportation”. As such, a genuine issue of fact existed which precluded the entry of summary judgment. The panel also concluded that the proper application and scope of the phrase “to deliver the gas for sale” was unclear and therefore ambiguous. The Seventh District noted that both parties had proffered two different interpretations of this critical phrase. The panel opined that resolution of the competing factual interpretations is the job for the fact-finder at trial: The Seventh District remanded the matter back to the trial court for further proceedings.

DEP To Review Shell Petrochemical Plant Title V Air Quality Permit Under Environmental Justice Policy Enhanced Public Participation Process - On December 18, the Department of Environmental Protection said the agency will review the Shell Petrochemical Plant Title V Air Quality Permit application under the “enhanced public participation process” established in its Interim Final Environmental Justice Policy holding local stakeholder meetings, one or more public meetings and a hearing. DEP made the comments in response to an inquiry about the agency’s public participation plan for the application.Shell submitted the Title V Air Quality application for the Beaver County facility on June 19 and DEP accepted the application as administratively complete on July 2. Read more here.DEP spokesperson Lauren Camarda said, “While DEP will consider the public’s feedback on an operating permit application at any time,” the first step in the enhanced public participation process will be for the DEP Office of Environmental Justice to hold stakeholder meetings in the area.“DEP will hold initial stakeholder meetings this winter with community organizations that have been active in the area and with Shell's permit applications,” said Camarda. “These meetings are to allow individuals and groups to share concerns and comments with DEP and for DEP to answer questions and gain insight to improve our broader public participation process.”Camarda said the formal public comment period on the application would start “if/when DEP” publishes notice in the PA Bulletin, other media and its website announcing the availability of a draft Title V operating permit for comment.“If/when DEP notices a draft Title V Operating Permit, DEP intends to hold at least one public meeting followed by a public hearing at a later date on the draft Title V Operating Permit,” said Camarda. “DEP will prepare plain language summaries for the public on the application and [review] process and will ensure that paper copies of the application are available at a location in the community in addition to DEP's community information webpage,” she explained.“These public events will be led by DEP's Office of Environmental Justice which has been engaging with community groups and area residents regarding the facility and the Title V Operating Permit application review process,” said Camarda.She added, “DEP's review of Shell's Title V Operating Permit application is ongoing.” A copy of the Title V permit application and information on any public meetings and a hearing will be available on DEP’s Shell Petrochemical Complex webpage.

Conventional Oil & Gas Well Owners Now Operate As Many As 95% Of Conventional Wells To Vent Methane Gas Making It Too Expensive To Comply With New EPA Methane Emission Reduction Regulations - On December 12, conventional oil and gas well owners said they now build and operate as many as 95% of conventional wells to vent methane that could trigger quarterly methane monitoring and capture requirements under the new US EPA methane reduction regulations making it too expensive for owners to comply.Conventional well owners made these comments at a meeting of DCED’s PA Grade Crude [Oil] Development Advisory Council in a response to a DEP presentation on what conventional well owners will be required to do to meet requirements under the new EPA methane rule.Conventional well owners said, “A very large proportion, perhaps as high as 95% of Pennsylvania conventional gas wells and Pennsylvania conventional oil wells and oil/gas wells which are constructed with a production string of casing, are purposely constructed as to allow the release of methane which methane may not be a steady flow and are constructed that way by regulation.“Further, the Pennsylvania mechanical integrity process contemplates this construction.”During the discussion, members of CDAC noted “while it may be technically possible to install a compressor and piping to collect the natural gas, the amount of gas gathered would be very small. The combined revenue of the oil and gas would not be sufficient to justify the capital expenditure of the collection.”[In addition, DEP’s oil and gas inspection reports show all newly drilled conventional wells are left to vent gas for days or weeks as part of what is now the normal process used now to develop a well in Pennsylvania.[As part of adopting state oil and gas methane reduction regulations in 2022, DEP has estimated conventional oil and gas facilities account for 80% of methane emissions from the oil and gas industry in Pennsylvania because they have done little or nothing to control them. Read more here.[Three industry groups representing the conventional oil and gas industry filed a lawsuit in Commonwealth Court December 5, 2022 in an attempt to block implementation of DEP’s first VOC/methane limits regulation on conventional oil and gas facilities. [Read more here.]]EPA’s new methane rule makes no distinction between conventional and unconventional shale gas wells and related facilities covered by its regulation because all the wells and infrastructure are significant sources of methane, a potent greenhouse gas.But it is a distinction in Pennsylvania’s Oil and Gas Act and regulatory program.At its meeting, the PA Grade Crude [Oil] Development Advisory Council adopted a motion to send an initial set of comments and questions to DEP on the EPA methane rule that asked about the statutory authority for the regulation in Pennsylvania, whether DEP was planning to adopt separate requirements for conventional and shale gas wells, how DEP would assess the cost of compliance on conventional well owners and Pennsylvania’s two oil refineries and others.DEP agreed further discussions on these and other questions would be helpful in developing the plan to implement EPA’s methane rule in Pennsylvania.In November 2023, Gov. Shapiro instructed DEP to take action to adopt oil and gas emission reduction measures aligned with federal policy as part of his administration’s work to address climate change and protect Pennsylvania’s Constitutional right to clean air and pure water. Read more here.DEP has a deadline of March 8, 2026 to submit a plan to EPA to implement the new methane reduction rule and well owners have a deadline of March 2029 to comply with its requirements.DEP does not plan to adopt new regulations incorporating the EPA rule because state regulations automatically adopt federal requirements.DEP does have to develop a plan and an amendment to the State Air Quality Implementation Plan to implement the methane rule that must go through a public development and comment process.In addition to the PA Grade Crude [Oil] Development Advisory Council, DEP has solicited comments from the Air Quality Technical Advisory Committee, Small Business Compliance Advisory Committee, Citizens Advisory Council, Environmental Justice Advisory Board and the Oil and Gas Technical Advisory Board.

Climate-warming gas leaks must be fixed by utilities in a new proposed rule - Ideastream— Melissa Ostroff finds gas leaks for a living, so it was surprising to hear someone say they smelled gas in her own home.As part of her job with the environmental group Earthworks, Ostroff searches gas drilling and production sites in Pennsylvania for plumes of methane, a big driver of climate change. A few years back, her family visited her south Philadelphia row home for the holidays."When my sister entered the house, she told me she smelled gas," Ostroff says. Knowing that gas utility meters are a big source of leaks, that was the first place she examined with a device she uses for her job. "There was a small but very continuous leak coming from a pipe fitting around the gas meter."Ostroff figures she had become accustomed to the odorant gas companies put in natural gas so customers will detect leaks. She called her utility, which fixed it right away. Aside from the safety concern, Ostroff knows that gas leaks are a problem for the climate. Methane is the main component of natural gas and, as one of the greenhouse gasses heating the planet, it is 80 times more potent than carbon dioxide.Now, under proposed federal regulations, gas utilities would have to find and fix more leaks like this. At the end of his first term in office, President-elect Donald Trump signed an appropriations bill that included the new requirement. The Biden administration is finishing the rules to implement the law. In the past, utilities focused this work on safety and preventing explosions that hurt people and damage property. Under the new rules, they'll also have to consider environmental harm when searching for methane leaks.You can't see methane, but a special infrared camera can. These costs thousands of dollars. Ostroff had one in her home because that's what she uses to find plumes at drilling sites. Now, she periodically checks the meter for leaks and says the problem appears to be fixed.Customer gas meters are the largest source of methane that escapes in the atmosphere from gas distribution systems. But leaks like this are not common. An industry study from GTI Energy showed less than 1% of indoor meters leak. But there are a lot of meters in the country, and it's easy to find customers online who say they've experienced leaks. Outdoor meters are less of a risk for causing explosions because the methane disperses into the atmosphere. But there, methane becomes a problem for the climate.The new gas leak rules have been drafted by federal Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA), which regulates gas utility pipelines and other infrastructure, all the way up to and including customer meters. Because safety was the focus in the past, utilities detected some leaks, but they didn't reach the top of the repair list for years."I've found like 10-year-old leaks," says Erin Murphy, an attorney with the Environmental Defense Fund. "So they've known about this pipeline leak for 10 years and haven't fixed it because they're not required to." PHMSA's proposed regulations that apply to gas meters are part of a larger group of regulations intended to reduce methane pollution from natural gas pipelines. The new rules are not as strict as Murphy would like, but she says they're an improvement.

What The Shale Gas Industry Is Leaving Behind: DEP: Nucomer Energy LLC Fails To Restore Shale Gas Well Pad, Water Impoundment In Forest County For More Than 12 Years After Drilling Was Completed - A December 11 Department of Environmental Protection inspection of a shale gas well pad and water impoundment owned by Nucomer Energy LLC in Hickory Township, Forest County found they have still not been restored more than 12 years after the wells were completed and 33 months after DEP issued the original violations for failure to restore the site.An April 27, 2022 DEP inspection report said the last well on the pad was completed in September 2012 and violations were issued on that date for failing to restore the well pad and related impoundment nine months after the last well was fracked as DEP regulations require.DEP also issued violations for spills from wastewater storage tanks and failure to submit monthly production reports in that same inspection report.Faced with no action by the well owner, DEP issued an administrative order to Nucomer Energy on December 6, 2023 requiring the well owner to restore the well site and impoundment and address other violations. DEP December 11 inspection reportDuring a May 1, 2024 inspection, DEP found Nucomer had addressed only one of the requirements in the order-- “violations associated with the deficient secondary containment liner.”On December 11, 2024, DEP did a follow-up inspection and found Nucomer had failed to comply with the December 6, 2023 order requiring the restoration of the well site and impoundment.“The Impoundment remains filled with water. There is no earth moving equipment on site. There has been no observable attempt made to restore the Well Site or the Well Development Impoundment prior to this inspection.”DEP requested a response by the well owner by December 27 on how the site will be brought into compliance. DEP December 11 inspection report Nucomer Energy holds permits for 49 conventional and shale gas wells, including one abandoned well.

CMS Energy's Arm Announces Plans to Upgrade Natural Gas System - CMS Energy Corporation CMS recently revealed that its primary subsidiary, Consumer Energy, has introduced a plan to upgrade its natural gas system, which provides gas to more than 1.8 million homes and businesses in Michigan. Details of CMS’ Plan Per the plan, the company will replace up to 10,000 old gas lines and add valves that can be operated remotely to handle emergencies faster. These improvements will make the system safer, more reliable and better for the environment while keeping it affordable for customers. Rate Hike – A Dire Need The existing natural gas supply system and infrastructure are getting old and the company needs to invest regularly to upgrade and replace its existing systems to enhance safety and reliability. The natural gas rate hike at regular intervals will help CMS to continue with infrastructure development and ensure uninterrupted services to its customers. To support its latest modernization efforts, CMS Energy has filed a $248 million natural gas rate request with the Michigan Public Service Commission, aiming to secure the necessary resources for long-term infrastructure development. Investments in Natural Gas Infrastructure The U.S. natural gas infrastructure is getting old and requires immediate replacement. A substantial investment is the need of the hour to improve the natural gas infrastructure. Many companies in the oil and gas industry are investing in upgrading infrastructure to ensure safe and efficient operations. They recoup the same through rate hike filling to continue making upgrades to the infrastructure. The demand for natural gas, a cleaner burning fuel, is likely to continue to grow in the United States, driven by the growth of natural gas-fired power plants and the rising exports of LNG. Some other companies that have also been investing in U.S. natural gas infrastructure are discussed below.

Power Co. Proposes NatGas Plants Near Texas Haynesville Shale -An American Electric Power (AEP) subsidiary plans to develop two natural gas-fired power plants near the prolific Haynesville shale play. Southwestern Electric Power Co. (SWEPCO), a subsidiary of publicly traded AEP, proposed several new generation projects that are pending regulatory approval, the company said Dec. 18. SWEPCO’s plans include a 450-megawatt (MW) natural gas plant—the Hallsville Natural Gas Plant—to be sited at the retired H.W. Pirkey coal plant in Harrison County, Texas. The project is expected to begin operations in 2027, following approvals from utility regulators in Arkansas, Louisiana and Texas. The Hallsville plant will feature two General Electric combustion gas turbine generators. The project will use existing water intake systems and other site infrastructure to reduce costs. SWEPCO also submitted filings for a fuel conversion project at the Welsh Power Plant, northwest of Cason, Texas. The 1,053-MW project will convert existing coal-fired boilers for Units 1 and 3 to burn natural gas. The conversion of Unit 3 is expected in 2027; Unit 1 in 2028. SWEPCO said it anticipates a need for more capacity in the region due to evolving reserve requirements set by the Southwest Power Pool (SPP). Natural gas generation makes up 48% of SWEPCO’s existing asset portfolio.

U.S. Shale Nears Limits of Productivity Gains | OilPrice.com U.S. shale is the biggest source of oil and gas output growth on a global scale. It’s in every forecast and projection that sees continued depression in oil prices. But that role as a growth driver might be coming to an end due to natural processes.Well productivity and efficiency improvements have been in the spotlight of U.S. shale oil and gas discourse ever since the industry served up a massive surprise to analysts by reducing the total rig count but boosting production by 1 million bpd last year.The unexpected jump in output was attributed to efficiency gains that made it possible for drillers to extract more oil at lower cost, driving the substantial increase in 2023 overall production of hydrocarbons. Now, the Energy Information Administration has predicted that productivity improvements and efficiency gains would continue driving output higher. The question, as usual, is just how high. In its latest Shot-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA forecast that total U.S. oil production next year would hit 13.5 million barrels daily. That would be up from an estimated 13.2 million barrels daily this year. The estimated 2024 average itself was an increase from 12.9 million bpd for 2023. In other words, over the past two years, total U.S. production of crude oil has increased at a rate of 300,000 barrels daily. Yet shale specifically boomed—but this is about to end. Well productivity in the Permian, the star shale play in the U.S. unconventional oil and gas industry, has declined by 15% since 2020, according to data from Enverus. However, at the same time, producers are drilling longer wells, and they are doing it more efficiently than before, squeezing ever more oil and creating a perception that there are no limits to the technological advancements that can keep that oil flowing. As usual, there is a “but”. In this case, it goes like this: U.S. shale drillers—and, more specifically, drilling service providers—have done wonders of efficiency, but there are limits to all technological advancements. More importantly, there are also natural limits to shale reservoirs. “We’ve tripled oil production in the last 15 years and we have doubled natural gas production.” But “there’s not a lot of gas left in the tank,” the chief executive of Quantum Energy Partners, Wil VanLoh, told Bloomberg back in September. “The US shale revolution has run its course,” VanLoh also said at the time, echoing warnings that some investors have been voicing for years, namely, that the pace of production growth that the U.S. shale industry has been keeping is unsustainable over a longer term.

Venture Global Cleared to Load First Commissioning Cargo at Plaquemines LNG -Federal regulators on Friday authorized Venture Global LNG Inc. to load the first commissioning cargo from its Plaquemines export terminal in Louisiana just days after the facility first produced the super-chilled fuel. Map and charts by Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) showing U.S. LNG export terminals' feed gas demand. FERC approved the company’s request to load the cargo on or after Saturday (Dec. 21). Regulators signed off on the commissioning cargo the same day as Venture Global made the request. The 20 million ton/year Plaquemines terminal produced its first LNG on Dec. 14. The first of 18 liquefaction blocks has started production 30 months after the project reached a final investment decision. That pace is on par with the company’s first facility, Calcasieu Pass LNG, which broke an industry record for fastest development with its first production in January 2022.

Chevron Inks 20-Year, 2 Mt/y Offtake Contract for Energy Transfer’s Lake Charles LNG - Chevron Corp. has inked a long-term sales and purchase agreement (SPA) for offtake from Energy Transfer LP’s proposed Lake Charles LNG project, marking the first contract disclosed since the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) dropped its long-awaited export analysis earlier in the week. Graph showing global LNG supply and demand balance through 2050. Energy Transfer agreed to supply Chevron with 2 million tons/year (Mt/y) for 20 years from the still unsanctioned Louisiana project on a free-on-board basis. Terms included a fixed liquefaction fee and gas supply indexed to Henry Hub. With Chevron on board, the 12 Mt/y project now has more than 80% of its capacity under long-term contracts. The majority of those contracts were expected to begin in 2026, when Lake Charles LNG was expected to enter operations. NGI’s Forward Look data show fixed prices at the U.S. benchmark averaging $3.796/MMBtu that year.

Chevron Places 20-Year, 2 MMtpa Offtake from Lake Charles LNG - Energy Transfer LP has signed an agreement to supply Chevron Corp. two million tonnes per annum (MMtpa) of liquefied natural gas (LNG) over 20 years from the planned Lake Charles LNG in Louisiana. Midstream oil and gas player Energy Transfer announced the deal Thursday, after the Department of Energy (DOE) launched a review of LNG export permitting considerations by releasing a new study and opening a public comment period. Last year the DOE denied Energy Transfer’s request to extend for a second time the deadline for Lake Charles LNG to start export. The deal was signed between Energy Transfer LNG Export LLC and Chevron USA Inc. “The LNG will be supplied on a free-on-board basis and the purchase price will consist of a fixed liquefaction charge and a gas supply component indexed to the Henry Hub benchmark”, Dallas, Texas-based Energy Transfer said in an online statement. Energy Transfer LNG president Tom Mason said, “We are pleased that one of the most prominent LNG industry participants has selected Lake Charles LNG as a supplier”. “We believe that Lake Charles is the most compelling LNG project on the Gulf Coast and we continue to make significant progress towards full commercialization of this project”, Mason added. Planned to have an export capacity of 16.45 MMtpa, Lake Charles LNG is fully permitted and would be built as a conversion from an existing brownfield regasification site with four existing LNG storage tanks, according to Energy Transfer. The developer, though, has yet to reach a final investment decision. And last year the DOE denied Energy Transfer’s application to extend to 2028 the 2025 deadline for the project to start export. In a decision published April 21, 2023, the DOE said that challenges from the coronavirus pandemic cited by Energy Transfer did not warrant the extension request as the application was filed “after the primary, acute effect of the COVID-19 pandemic had largely subsided”. The DOE was not convinced Energy Transfer had done enough to bring the project to startup. “All authorization holders currently exporting from the seven large-scale export facilities in the United States commenced exports within their original seven-year commencement period—some while weathering the challenging delays and uncertainties associated with the COVID-19 pandemic and related market repercussions”, the DOE said. On August 18, 2023, Energy Transfer re-filed for an extension, seeking seven more years from the date of the new requested authorization. “In early to mid-2022, as the effects of COVID-19 began to lessen and worldwide demand for LNG began to increase following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, LCE ramped up its development activities. This process included the commencement of discussions with the two EPC contractors who previously submitted EPC bids in the summer of 2022”, Energy Transfer insisted in its new application, accessible on the DOE website. It was referring to Lake Charles Exports LLC (LCE), a wholly-owned subsidiary. “The COVID-19 pandemic caused significant supply chain issues that resulted in severe shortages of LNG critical equipment, particularly electrical components, heat exchangers, turbines and compressors, as well as substantial increases in the cost of materials”, Energy Transfer added. “These issues ultimately led to the determination by EPC [engineering, procurement and construction] contractors that they could not honor prior EPC bids but would need to commence a 9-month process in early Fall of 2022 to solicit updated bids from every supplier of materials and parts for the Liquefaction Project”. Energy Transfer also said that exporting LNG is in the American public interest. “In granting LCE’s prior request for export authorization to non-FTA [free trade agreement] countries, DOE/FECM [Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management] concluded that the exports proposed from the Lake Charles Terminal ‘are likely to generate net economic benefits to the United States’”, the new application stated. Energy Transfer had hoped to obtain a decision by February 2024. However, on January 26, 2024, the Biden administration announced pending decisions on LNG exports were being paused. The DOE said the moratorium would give it time to review permitting considerations involving greenhouse gas emissions, environmental impact, energy prices and domestic gas supply. On Tuesday the DOE released a new study on such considerations. “The study, released today, will have a 60-day comment period that will begin once published in the Federal Register”, it said in a statement. “The public is encouraged to submit comments, which will inform how DOE may apply the study’s findings to its public interest analysis of export applications going forward”.

US natgas slides 2% as less cold weather keeps demand low — (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slipped 2% to a near one-week low on Monday as weather forecasts suggested less cold conditions in the coming weeks, which is expected to lower heating demand. Front-month gas futures for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled 6.6 cents, or 2%, lower at $3.214 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) by 03:11 p.m. EST (2011 GMT) . "Natgas is pulling back as the U.S. is seeing a warm up and disagreements from weather models on how cold January is going to be," LSEG estimated 323 heating degree days over the next two weeks, lower than the forecast for 376 HDDs on Friday. It also forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, dropping from 129.8 bcfd last week to 125.0 bcfd this week. Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through Dec. 28, except for a few colder-than-normal days from Dec. 21-23. "We saw a pretty big increase in wind output and that has ultimately displaced some natural gas and coal generation, so power burns are adjusting on a week-over-week basis, which is a good indication that demand is waning in the short term," Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 103.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in December, up from 101.5 bcfd in November. That compares with a record 105.3 bcfd in December 2023. The amount of gas flowing to the eight big LNG export plants operating in the U.S. rose to an average of 14.4 bcfd so far in December, up from 13.6 bcfd in November. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. Dutch and British wholesale gas prices fell on Monday morning as forecasts for warmer-than-usual temperatures curbed demand for gas. Also weighing on the market was news on Friday that Hungary had found a solution to enable it to pay for Russian gas.

US natgas prices climb 2% on rising flows to LNG export plants -- U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 2% on Wednesday on rising flows to the nation's liquefied natural gas export plants and expectations utilities pulled more gas out of storage than usual for a second week in a row last week. Analysts, however, projected rising output and forecasts for mild weather and low heating demand through the start of the new year should keep storage withdrawals smaller than normal in coming weeks. There was currently about 4% more gas in storage than usual for this time of year. Front-month gas futures for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 6.6 cents, or 2.0%, to settle at $3.374 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Some analysts have said that winter, and the high prices it usually brings, could be over before the season officially starts since the heavily traded March-April "widow-maker" spread started trading in unusual contango in early December. That means the April contract is priced higher than the March contract. March is the last month of the winter storage withdrawal season, and April is the first month of the summer storage injection season. Because gas is primarily a winter heating fuel, summer prices typically do not trade above winter ones. It is also possible that gas prices have already hit their 2024 peak when they reached an intraday high of $3.56 per mmBtu in November. Over the past five years, prices hit their yearly highs in January 2023, August 2022, October 2021 and 2020, and January 2019. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 103.1 billion cubic feet per day so far in December, up from 101.5 bcfd in November. That compares with a record 105.3 bcfd in December 2023. Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 would remain mostly warmer than normal through at least Jan. 2. But with seasonally colder weather coming - it is usually colder in January than December - LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 123.9 bcfd this week to 128.2 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday. The amount of gas flowing to the eight big LNG export plants operating in the U.S. rose to an average of 14.1 bcfd so far in December, up from 13.6 bcfd in November. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. Some of that LNG feedgas increase came from rising flows to the first 1.8-bcfd phase of Venture Global LNG's Plaquemines export plant under construction in Louisiana. Plaquemines was on track to pull in about 0.3 bcfd of gas on Wednesday, according to LSEG data, the same as Tuesday and up from an average of 0.1 bcfd over the prior seven days.

US natgas prices jump 6% to 23-month high on lower output, rising LNG feedgas — U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 6% to a 23-month high on Thursday on lower output in recent days, an increase in the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants to an 11-month high, and early forecasts for more cold weather in January. Front-month gas futures for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 21.0 cents, or 6.2%, to settle at $3.584 per million British thermal units, their highest since January 2023. That price increase also came ahead of a report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) that showed utilities pulled a bigger-than-usual 125 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended Dec. 13. That was in line with the 126-bcf withdrawal analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with a decrease of 92 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year average draw of 78 bcf for this time of year. "The big draw did chop away at the storage surplus ... Gas is now closer to switching from a storage surplus to a storage deficit than at any point since the start of injection season," Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 103.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in December, up from 101.5 bcfd in November. That compares with a record 105.3 bcfd in December 2023. On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop by 2.2 bcfd over the past six days to a preliminary four-week low of 101.9 bcfd on Thursday. Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 would remain mostly warmer than normal through at least Jan. 3. But with seasonally colder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 124.6 bcfd this week to 127.7 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday, while its forecast for next week was lower. In other LNG news, the Seapeak Catalunya LNG vessel anchored outside Boston with what will likely be New England's first LNG cargo of the winter - this one from Trinidad and Tobago. Last winter, Constellation Energy's CEG Everett LNG terminal in Massachusetts received six cargoes from December 2023-March 2024 - five from Trinidad and one from Norway, according to LSEG data. New England power generators often switch from relatively cheap pipeline gas to more expensive oil and gas from LNG imports because gas pipelines into the six-state region cannot carry enough supply to heat the region's homes and businesses and fuel its power plants on the coldest winter days.

US natgas prices jump 5% to 23-month high on cold forecasts, rising LNG feedgas U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 5% to a 23-month high on Friday on early forecasts for much colder weather in mid-January that could freeze oil and gas wells and lift spot prices by reducing output as in past years. Also supporting prices was an increase in the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and forecasts for slightly cooler weather than previously expected that should boost heating demand next week. Front-month gas futures for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 16.4 cents, or 4.6%, to settle at $3.748 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since January 2023 for a second day in a row. With the front-month up about 16% over the past four days and in technically overbought territory for the first time since November, the premium of futures for January over February climbed to a record high of 34 cents per mmBtu. For the week, the contract was up about 14% after gaining 7% last week. Recent increases in gas prices coupled with a decline in oil prices, but the oil-to-gas ratio, or the level at which oil trades compared with gas, to 19-to-1 on Friday, the lowest since January 2023. On an energy equivalent basis, oil should only trade six times over gas. So far in 2024, crude prices have traded about 34 times over gas. That compares with 30 times over gas in 2023 and 20 times over gas during the prior five years (2018-2022). In other news, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump said the European Union, already the biggest buyer of U.S. energy, should step up U.S. oil and gas imports or face tariffs on the bloc’s exports. Financial firm LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 124.4 bcfd this week to 130.2 bcfd with cooler weather next week before falling to 119.4 bcfd with milder weather in two weeks. The forecast for next week was higher than LSEG’s outlook on Thursday. The use of gas to produce LNG for export – the fastest growing source of U.S. gas demand growth in recent years – was headed for its first annual decline in 2024 since the country started exporting the super-chilled fuel from the Lower 48 states in 2016. The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 14.1 bcfd so far in December, up from 13.6 bcfd in November. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. On a daily basis, a drop in LNG feedgas to Cheniere Energy’s 2.4-bcfd Corpus Christi plant in Texas to a three-month low of 1.6 bcfd offset a rise in flows to Cheniere’s 4.5-bcfd Sabine Pass in Louisiana to an eight-month high of 5.2 bcfd and a rise in flows at Venture Global LNG’s 2.6-bcfd Plaquemines plant under construction in Louisiana to a record 0.4 bcfd this week.

DOE Cautions Against ‘Unfettered’ U.S. LNG, Says Prices, Emissions Would Skyrocket if Left Unchecked - The Department of Energy’s (DOE) long-awaited study of U.S. LNG exports concluded more project authorizations could increase domestic prices and derail global climate goals without policy changes, potentially creating speed bumps for the Trump administration. Graph from Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) showing commercially advanced North American LNG projects that were impacted by the U.S. Department of Energy's permit pause. DOE officials published more than 600 pages of material Tuesday reviewing the environmental and economic impacts of the country’s natural gas export industry. New permit considerations for non-free trade agreement (NFTA) permits were frozen for around six months this year while researchers at various DOE national laboratories conducted the first policy update since 2018. In the report, researchers suggested the current pace of long-term worldwide LNG exports from the U.S. would increase volatility within the U.S. gas market. Surging prices could cost the average household an extra $100/year or more by 2050, according to estimates in the study.

Expanding Natural Gas Exports Will Increase Prices, Pollution, Report Says - — A long-awaitedEnergy Department report says increasing exports of liquefied natural gas will raise prices and pollution, and isn't needed to keep up with demand — even as incoming President Donald Trump has pledged to increase fossil fuel production that has been blamed for contributing to climate change.“A business-as-usual approach is neither sustainable nor advisable,” Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said Tuesday. Environmentalists seized on the report as a call to block additional LNG exports.“The DOE’s latest analysis further proves what climate advocates, health organizations and others have said for years: LNG exports are not in the best interests of Americans,” said Ashlei Tracy, deputy executive director of the Pennsylvania Bipartisan Climate Initiative.But American Petroleum Institute President Mike Sommers called for more export permits.“It’s time to lift the pause on new LNG export permits and restore American energy leadership around the world,” Mr. Sommers said. “After nearly a year of a politically motivated pause that has only weakened global energy security, it’s never been clearer that U.S. LNG is critical for meeting growing demand for affordable, reliable energy while supporting our allies overseas.”The report was commissioned after President Joe Biden in Januaryannounced a pause in approving new LNG export terminals, a step applauded by environmentalists butcriticized by Pennsylvania politicians of both parties. There are eight such terminals operating in the U.S. currently and five more under construction. Last year, about 11% of U.S. gas was liquefied and sent abroad. The next step is for a public comment period on the report.The Keystone State is second only to Texas in natural gas production. While it’s not known how much of Pennsylvania’s gas gets exported abroad, the majority of it does not get consumed in the state and operators have looked to secure space in pipelines that supply LNG terminals on the Gulf Coast. The moratorium was an issue in last month’s election when Trump carried the Keystone State as he defeated Vice President Kamala Harris for president.Trump has pledged to issue new permits for LNG exports along with expanding oil and gas drilling, even as Mr. Biden sought to move the nation to clean energy and reduce the greenhouse gas emissions contributing to climate change.The U.S. has become the world’s largest exporter of LNG — accelerated by the Ukraine war as American gas replaced Russian gas in Western Europe.The report said that the current rate of growth in U.S. natural gas exports will exceed global demand. In fact, there are more than enough facilities already approved for construction to handle the demand, the report said.A dramatic increase in LNG exports will be felt domestically in the form of higher prices — costing the average U.S. household as much as $100 more a year by 2050, the report said.“We have recently lived through the real-world ripple effects of increased energy prices domestically and globally since the pandemic,” Ms. Granholm said. “Middle- and low-income households already face energy bills that are too high.”In addition, LNG facilities, which primarily are located on the Gulf Coast, pollute the air and, along with the existing oil industry, have “left a legacy of pollution and public health impacts,” the report said, adding that climate change has hurt local industries such as shrimping and fishing.“There is no longer any debate,” said Greenpeace USA Deputy Climate Program Director John Noël. “LNG exports drive up prices, devastate communities, and increase climate pollution. It is time for the Biden administration to act decisively and deny all the pending LNG export applications. The Department of Energy’s final report serves as a wake-up call to international buyers — U.S. LNG is not clean energy.”The oil and gas industry had signaled that it would not accept the findings of the report before it was released and followed through with swiftly issued statements denouncing it on Tuesday.“It’s time to end this blatant political charade from the Biden administration and start processing LNG export permits,” said David Callahan, the outgoing president of the Marcellus Shale Coalition, an industry trade group that represents shale gas producers and service firms in the Appalachian region.In a statement, Mr. Callahan said that “abroad, U.S. LNG exports enhance energy security and environmental advancement,” although DOE’s report said unfettered exports would increase greenhouse gas emissions.LNG supporters in the industry long have claimed that U.S. gas can be used to displace dirtier-burning coal abroad, thereby helping to lower climate warming gasses in the atmosphere. Chris Wright, who Trump nominated to be the next energy secretary, has been a proponent of increasing gas exports, in part because they would displace dirty cooking and heating fuels such as wood and dung, he said.Environmental advocates and lawmakers during a press call Tuesday said the report’s findings gave them ammunition as they continued to fight approval for LNG projects.The advocates urged the federal government to seek alternatives to oil and gas and to invest in renewable energy. They said the Biden administration’s LNG export approval pause was not politically motivated; instead, it gave officials more time to consider the full impacts of LNG facilities in American communities, the advocates said.Rep. Sean Casten, D-Ill., warned that approving more export terminals would wind up raising domestic gas prices and undercut national security.“There is 100 years of law that says the U.S., when they approve these facilities, have to put the national interest first,” he said.Energy producers, he argued, aim to “figure out how to export this overseas and make more money. We’re sitting here in a world where we’ve invented cellphone technology and are arguing whether we should export rotary phones to the rest of the world.”The only criticism he had of the report is that it was “too conservative” about the climate change impacts caused by the additional distribution and shipment of natural gas.

US DOE Releases LNG Gas Export Study: Facilities Already Approved Will Meet Global Demand For Decades; Unfettered Exports Would Increase Domestic Natural Gas Prices; Electricity Prices; Costs To Manufacturers – On December 17, the U.S. Department of Energy released an updated study of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports required by Congress under the federal Natural Gas Act to evaluate the public interest of proposed exports to countries with which the United States does not have a Free Trade Agreement. The study will have a 60-day comment period that will begin once published in the Federal Register. The public is encouraged to submit comments, which will inform how DOE may apply the study’s findings to its public interest analysis of export applications going forward.In addition to the study, U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer M. Granholm released a Secretarial Statement outlining departmental leadership’s perspective on the final study. Here are some key findings from the Secretary’s statement--

• -- Already Approved Facilities Will Meet Demand For Decades: LNG gas export facilities already approved “will be more than sufficient to meet global demand for U.S. LNG for decades to come.” “​​U.S. LNG exports have already tripled over the past five years, will double again by 2030, and could double yet again under existing authorizations.”
• -- Energy Consumers, Manufacturers Will Face Higher Energy Costs: "Unfettered exports of LNG would increase wholesale domestic natural gas prices by over 30%;" increases in electricity prices because natural gas dominates generation. [In Pennsylvania it accounts for 59% of generation capacity. Read more here.]; and increased costs for manufacturers that use natural gas as feedstock.
• -- LNG Gas Export Facilities Burden Already Polluted Communities: LNG facilities tend to be concentrated in communities that are being asked to shoulder the additional burden of pollution from increased natural gas production and liquefaction. This comes on top of existing environmental burdens from refining, petrochemical, and other industries already concentrated near these communities. [The proposal to build an LNG export facility in Chester, Delaware County is just one example. Read more here.]
• -- Climate Impact Merits Close, Rigorous Analysis: While some tout LNG as a means to reduce the use of coal overseas (and to date that has been the case with some importing countries), the study put forward today shows a world in which additional U.S. LNG exports displace more renewables than coal globally.
• -- We Need To Know Where Those Exports Are Headed: “Based on current global demand for LNG, the People’s Republic of China is already the world’s largest importer. Looking ahead, China's LNG exports are expected to nearly double between now and 2030, and China's LNG imports are expected to be the highest of any country through 2050.

PRC entities have already signed several contracts with operating or proposed U.S. LNG projects. Future authorization decisions of what is in the “public interest” need not be made solely on a binary – yes or no – basis but could be undertaken using a broader framework of requirements for all authorizations.[Pennsylvania shale gas producers have already said they have a “duty” to supply China-- our economic and military competitor-- with natural gas to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Read more here.]“Regardless of what happens in each cycle of elections, the effect of increased energy prices for domestic consumers combined with the negative impacts to local communities and the climate will continue to grow as exports increase.”“In the decade to come, we will see strong and mounting pressure within our democratic system to ensure that the United States uses its market position in a way that truly advances our national interest and energy security, which must include the needs of American workers, American families, and our responsibility to address the climate crisis. “In our view, the question is not whether U.S. export policy will be forced to respond to those interests, but when and what that response is.”

Industry Confronts DOE LNG Study, Braces for Further Project Hurdles Even as Trump’s Second Term Nears A massive study released by the federal government on Tuesday that suggested further increasing U.S. LNG exports is unsustainable was widely dismissed by the industry as a political stunt. But it’s still likely to complicate President-elect Trump’s plans to fast-track export project approvals. Graph showing commercially advanced U.S. LNG projects impacted by the DOE's permit review. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) released more than 600 pages of material after nearly a year of studying whether more exports are in the public interest. The study is final, but it is to be opened to a 60-day public comment period that would help inform how DOE applies the findings to its public interest analysis of export applications going forward.The Biden administration paused the approval of new export projects in January while it conducted the study. Trump has said he plans to lift the pause on his first day in office and fast-track some projects as part of a broader agenda to solid

Analysts: DOE’s LNG Study Will Result in Few Policy Changes - - Scores of energy industry representatives criticized the Department of Energy’sfindings on the LNG sector, released on Dec. 17, even though the report’s recommendations are unlikely to become policy.The report—a government-funded scientific study—is likely to come up in the courtroom even after the Donald Trump administration takes power and presumably disregards the DOE’s proposals, according to Arbo, a firm that tracks government issues for the energy industry.The Dec. 17 “release of DOE's long-anticipated export study officially ends the pause but potentially complicates the path forward,” Arbo wrote in a newsletter.The DOE report forecasted unrestricted LNG exports could increase domestic natural gas prices by 30%. The increased use of LNG could also increase global greenhouse gas emissions by delaying the transition from a hydrocarbon-based energy infrastructure to one based on solar and wind. A strong supply of LNG on the global market could also potentially help America’s opponents, especially China, the report said.Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm's “emphasis on these findings, along with environmental justice concerns and public interest considerations, sets up potential hurdles for the incoming administration,” Arbo wrote.The study now has a 60-day comment period, which extends past the date when Trump moves into the White House. At that time, the DOE is expected to shift its LNG analysis to a more economically focused approach.However, the expected shift from the Trump administration could result in legal challenges. Future plaintiffs against LNG expansion could potentially cite the study when making a case against the government, Arbo said.Recent LNG projects—even already permitted facilities—are facing legal action. In August, a federal appeals court vacated the federal permits for two LNG facilities located in South Texas —Texas LNG and Rio Grande LNG. In its reasoning, the court cited environmental justice arguments that the DOE included in the just-released report. Arbo also noted that the recent U.S. Supreme Court Chevron decision will further complicate legal matters because the ruling took away some of the executive branch’s power to create regulations, meaning rules implemented under the Trump administration will be under greater legal scrutiny than prior administrations. There is some optimism for the LNG industry, however. Under the Natural Gas Act, the DOE retains “considerable discretion” to determine the public interest for LNG permit authorizations, Arbo said. The flexibility could mean the DOE may have fewer problems changing its current policies. The White House implemented the LNG permitting pause in February. After a year, the concrete effects of the move appear to be minimal against the larger backdrop of expanding LNG export capacity, said Jack Weixel, senior director at East Daley Analytics. According to the DOE, five LNG projects are currently waiting for permits: Calcasieu Pass 2 (3.96 Bcf/d); Commonwealth (1.21 Bcf/d); Port Arthur Phase II (1.91 Bcf/d); Lake Charles (2.33 Bcf/d); and Magnolia LNG (1.23 Bcf/d). “The fact of the matter is that through the new administration’s first and only remaining term, the DOE pause only really ever impacted Venture Global’s CP2 project and Kimmeridge-backed Commonwealth LNG,” Weixel told Hart Energy. Combined, the two facilities had a capacity of 3.9 Bcf/d of incremental demand. The DOE had already permitted about 15 Bcf/d of capacity for development, Weixel said. With or without the pause, the U.S. export capacity for LNG is expected to double between now and 2028, from about 14 Bcf/d to more than 28 Bcf/d. One project, Venture Global’s Plaquemines LNG, began production on Dec. 13. Cheniere Energy’s Corpus Christi LNG expansion is expected to start production within the next few weeks. Weixel also noted the DOE is partially correct in that domestic natural gas prices will rise, but such an increase was expected, regardless of whether any new export capacity is approved. Producers likely plan to increase supply once LNG demand kicks in. Natural gas prices have remained low over the past two years thanks to abundant supplies, especially out of the Permian Basin, where natural gas has been priced below $0 for much of 2024. Many of the LNG facilities are also adjacent to the Haynesville Shale, located in Texas and Louisiana. “The point is that there is plenty of natural gas to produce into another 3.9 Bcf/d of feedgas demand,” Weixel said. “It’s just a matter of putting in the infrastructure to move that gas to the Gulf Coast.”

Trump’s Energy Pick, Chris Wright, Argues Fossil Fuels Are Virtuous - The New York Times - Chris Wright, the fracking magnate and likely next U.S. energy secretary, makes a moral case for fossil fuels. His position, laid out in speeches and podcasts, is that the world’s poorest people need oil, gas and coal to realize the benefits of modern life that Americans and others in rich nations take for granted. Only fossil fuels, he says, can bring prosperity to millions who still burn wood, dung or charcoal for basic needs like cooking food and heating homes.“It’s just, I think, naïve or evil, or some combination of the two, to believe they should never have washing machines, they should never have access to electricity, they should never have modern medicine,” Mr. Wright said on the “Mission Zero” podcast last year. “We don’t want that to happen. And we simply don’t have meaningful substitutes for oil, gas and coal today.”The argument offered by Mr. Wright, who has been chosen by President-elect Donald J. Trump to run the Energy Department, ignores the fact that wind, solar and other renewable energy are cleaner and increasingly cheaper than fossil fuels. The International Energy Agency says clean energy is coming online globally at an “unprecedented rate” and will play a significant role in the future. In some places, renewable energy has been able todisplace fossil fuels.Mr. Wright also skates past the climate impacts from burning more fossil fuels. Climate change is already having a disproportionate impact on poor nations, which are less able than rich countries to handle the rising seas, extreme weather, drought and other consequences of global warming.“It’s pretty self-serving by the fossil fuel industry to assume the future is going to look exactly like the past,” said Joseph Curtin, a managing director on the power and climate team at the Rockefeller Foundation, which is working on expanding clean energy access in poor countries.

Trump Administration Builds Options for Unleashing U.S. LNG, but Obstacles Could Remain, Experts Say - The incoming administration could be planning to use a novel set of tools to grant a wave of LNG export permits, according to energy experts, but the pending U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) study could still complicate the process. Natural Gas Intelligence's (NGI) chart showing global LNG futures settle prices through 2027. As inauguration day approaches, President-elect Trump and his transition team have indicated they plan to target the Biden administration’s pause on new non-free trade agreement (NFTA) permits that have kept developers and long-term customers on edge since January. On Tuesday, Trump also made an overture on Truth Social, his social media network, to the business community, promising to streamline “all environmental approvals” for “any person or company investing [$1 billion]” or more in the United States.

Enbridge pipeline spills 70,000 gallons of oil in Wisconsin - Roughly 70,000 gallons (264,978 litres) of oil from a pipeline spilled into the ground in Wisconsin, officials said. The problem was discovered Nov. 11 in Jefferson County, 60 miles (96.5 kilometers) west of Milwaukee, by an Enbridge Energy technician, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported, citing a federal accident report. Enbridge said the spill on the company’s Line 6 was caused by a faulty connection on a pump transfer pipe at the Enbridge Cambridge Station. It was an estimated 1,650 barrels, which is equivalent to about 70,000 gallons. “Investigation and remediation began immediately upon discovery and continues. Removal of impacted soils is continuing,” spokesperson Juli Kellner said Saturday, adding that 60% of the spill has been removed through excavation. Kellner said the spill was immediately reported to regulators, though the report by a federal pipeline safety agency said the line likely was leaking for an “extended period of time.” “We are working with the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources as cleanup and restoration proceed,” Kellner said. Line 6 is a 465-mile (748.3-kilometer) pipeline carrying crude oil from Superior, Wisconsin, to a terminal near Griffith, Indiana, according to a company map. Critics noted the spill was discovered during the same week that Wisconsin regulators approved the first permits for Enbridge’s plan to move the aging Line 5 pipeline around the Bad River Band of Lake Superior Chippewa reservation. Opponents said it would still threaten the region’s watershed and perpetuate the use of fossil fuels.

Enbridge pipeline oil spill in Wisconsin larger than all of the company's spills combined in 2023 | Interlochen Public Radio -- Wisconsin state and federal officials are reporting an oil spill from an Enbridge pipeline, Line 6. The spill is about 60 miles west of Milwaukee near the small town of Oakland.The Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources said in a release that Enbridge first reported a two-gallon oil spill. Later it was revised to 126 gallons. Now, it’s past 69,000 gallons. That’s 15 times more than what Enbridge reported spilling in all of North America in all of last year. The U.S. Department of Transportation’s Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration report indicated that the oil spill is limited to soil contamination on Enbridge-owned land. It’s considered a High Consequence Area because of its proximity to nearby homes. Estimates indicate the cleanup costs and the loss of product will amount to a little more than $1 million. The spill occurs as Enbridge faces opposition to replacing Line 3 in Minnesota, rerouting Line 5 around tribal land in Wisconsin, and building a tunnel in the Straits of Mackinac to replace part of Line 5 in Michigan. Opponents of the projects point to this latest spill as further evidence that the crude oil and natural gas liquids pipelines are a risk to sensitive environmental areas and the Great Lakes.

Canadian Natural Gas Production Sets Another Record as Prices Rebound Natural gas producers in Canada, already prolific this year, bolstered output to another all-time high this month in response to winter’s arrival and rising prices. Natural Gas Intelligence's (NGI) Canada Border Tracker displaying a map and key natural gas hubs with prices. Depicts flow data key for market analyses. Western Canadian gas production clocked in at 19.38 Bcf on Dec. 6, eclipsing the prior record of 19.30 Bcf set just a month earlier, according to analyses by RBN Energy LLC. The rise this month “continues what has been a strong upward trend for production that has been underway since the beginning of October,” RBN analyst Martin King said. He noted that, because of revisions, the November record figure was lower than a prior estimate, though it was still a single-day peak at the time.

Extension of U.S. LNG Pause Could Benefit Mexico Projects, Expert Says -If the United States were to continue to hold back the approval of new LNG export projects, then Mexico could get a leg up developing its export market, according to Ramón Antonio Massieu Arrojo, an attorney at Toeppich and Associates. None “There are several ongoing and planned projects in Mexico, and I think if the pause continues, investors and developers will look there for development opportunities,” he told NGI’s Mexico GPI. A recent study by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) suggested that new LNG projects in the United States could mean higher natural gas prices domestically, as well as with rising emissions. Massieu Arrojo is an attorney at Houston-based Toeppich and Associates where he specializes in the development of energy projects, regulation, mergers and acquisitions and market competition issues.

LNG Re-exporters Weigh Trump Effect Ahead of Inauguration — Mexico Spotlight - This week, the North American natural gas market turned its focus to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and its more than 600-page report assessing whether more LNG exports are in the public interest. The study, released on Tuesday (Dec. 17) is important to Mexican markets too, because Mexico has some 42 million tons/year (Mt/y) worth of LNG projects in the planning stages. These projects would source U.S. gas and thus would be subject to DOE regulations. Beyond those being planned, there is also one LNG project in operation in Mexico. Meanwhile, Sempra’s Baja California export terminal is set to come online in 2026. Both rely on U.S. feed gas.

Natural Gas Storage, Pipelines, LNG, Drilling Crews – Mexico Needs it All, Study Finds -Developers and the Mexican state need to work together to take advantage of an energy mix increasingly reliant on natural gas, according to a new study. Compiled by the Instituto Mexicano para la Competitividad (IMCO) think tank and Mexican gas association Asociación Mexicana de Gas Natural (AMGN), the 50-page report highlighted the rapid expansion of natural gas in Mexico over recent years. The aim of the paper, according to the authors, was to underline the natural gas opportunities that exist in Mexico so the fuel can “become a strategic ally in the economic and social development of the entire country.”

YPF, Shell Agree to Partner on Argentina Export Project — Three Things to Know About the LNG Market --Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday the contract that allows the country to ship natural gas through Ukraine would expire at the end of the year. Chart from Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) showing LNG direct ex-ship prices in Latin America. Putin reportedly said during his annual press conference that Ukraine has refused to extend it, but said Gazprom PJSC would “survive.” The European Commission has also said it is prepared for the end of the transit deal in keeping with a plan it rolled out weeks after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. The continent is working to phase out Russian energy imports by 2030.

Trump Threatens Tariffs If EU Doesn't Buy More USA Oil and Gas - President-elect Donald Trump warned the European Union that its exports will get hit with US tariffs if its member states don’t buy more American oil and gas. “I told the European Union that they must make up their tremendous deficit with the United States by the large scale purchase of our oil and gas. Otherwise, it is TARIFFS all the way!!!,” he said on Truth Social. The US is the world’s largest producer of crude oil and the biggest exporter of liquefied natural gas. LNG buyers — including the EU and Vietnam — have already talked about purchasing more fuel from the US, in part to deter the threat of tariffs. The euro traded 0.3% stronger at $1.0398 Friday in a sign investors believe the bloc will be able to meet his demands and avoid punitive measures. The US goods and services trade deficit with the EU was $131.3 billion in 2022, according to the office of the US Trade Representative, and the EU has been bracing for a trade offensive ever since Trump’s election victory last month. The bloc was largely caught off-guard in 2017 when Trump, citing national security concerns in his previous term as president, levied tariffs on European steel and aluminum. Since then, the EU has reinvented its trade doctrine and expanded its toolbox, giving it a range of options to counter coercive practices. “We are well-prepared for the possibility that things will become different with a new US administration,” German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said after a Group of Seven meeting in Italy in late November. “If the new US administration pursues an ‘America first’ policy in the sectors of climate or trade, then our response will be ‘Europe united.’” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen floated the idea last month that imports from the US could replace the bloc’s consumption of Russian LNG. LNG “is one of the topics that we touched upon,” von der Leyen said after a phone call with Trump. “We still get a whole lot of LNG via Russia, from Russia. And why not replace it with American LNG, which is cheaper, and brings down our energy prices.” The US is already Europe’s biggest provider of LNG, but imports from Russia remain solidly in the second spot. EU officials are looking for ways to curb Moscow’s role as the war in Ukraine continues, even while Russian pipeline gas and LNG are largely outside of the scope of sanctions. The bloc will explore potential measures when they discuss a new sanctions package next month but stringent restrictions remain difficult, according to a person familiar with the matter, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. In the short-term, the US doesn’t have much more capacity to increase shipments. And since LNG is sold through long-term contracts, adding shipments to Europe would require original buyers of the gas to agree to divert its shipments to Europe — but that wouldn’t boost the amount being exported by the US. Over the longer term, more capacity will come on line with dozens of projects in the US currently in the works. The US has already assumed a critically important role as an oil supplier to Europe, especially in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Shipments are now holding steadily up around the 2 million-barrels a day mark, exceeding flows from countries including Saudi Arabia, west Africa and elsewhere. US barrels have also become increasingly important in setting Dated Brent, the world’s key price for determining physical market transactions. Those flows have largely been a function of free-market trading and it’s hard to know what difference any kind of government-level intervention could make to them. Asia also competes for the barrels. Refineries are optimized to make the right fuels from the right crudes. But the EU has still prepared for the possibility that it will end up in a trade war with Washington. The EU’s new anti-coercion instrument strengthens trade defenses and enables the commission, the bloc’s executive arm, to impose tariffs or other punitive measures in response to such politically motivated restrictions. The EU also adopted a so-called foreign subsidies regulation, which allows the commission to prevent foreign companies that receive unfair state handouts from participating in public tenders or merger-and-acquisition deals in the bloc, among other measures. Trump has multiple grievances against the EU and has criticized Europe for not spending enough on defense and for the US-EU trade deficit. He once referred to Brussels, the seat of the EU institutions, as a hellhole, and more recently he said he’d once told a NATO member that he’d let Russia do “whatever the hell they want” to it if it didn’t hit defense spending targets. Trump has threatened tariffs against countries from China to Canada, and is particularly focused on nations that have trade deficits with the US. Europe is already the top destination for American LNG, with more than half of the deliveries going to the continent last year.

European Natural Gas Prices Continue Sinking as Supply Outlook Strengthens — LNG Recap European natural gas prices continued to trade at their lowest price in over a month as supply concerns have eased and temperatures are expected to stay above normal into next week. (a chart showing European natural gas storage levels) The prompt Title Transfer Facility (TTF) contract shed another 29 cents on Monday to finish at $12.40/MMBtu. The European Union assessed LNG prices a bit higher at $13.01 as the Japan-Korea Marker continued to trade at a premium of around $15. But LNG supplies are strong in both regions, while Norwegian exports to Europe were also healthy at 11.5 Bcf on Monday, according to pipeline grid operator Gassco AS.

EU Court Ends Years-Long Challenge to Natural Gas Pipeline Regulations for Nord Stream 2 -The European Court of Justice dismissed the Nord Stream 2 AG (NS2) pipeline contest case against the European Union (EU), strengthening the bloc’s petition to use regulations to protect domestic markets from import volatility. The case, which had been ongoing since 2019, centered around the EU’s move to extend market rules for internal pipeline systems to third-party lines that bring exported energy products to member states. The original complaint from NS2, a Switzerland-based unit of Russia's state-owned gas company Gazprom PJSC, was dismissed in 2020, but the firm was allowed to continue its argument after a 2022 appeal. The European Commission (EC) welcomed the court’s judgement in the case brought by NS2 concerning the EU Gas Directive, an EC spokesperson told NGI.

Russia Could Lose Its Largest European LNG Import Loophole in Latest Natural Gas Crackdown -- French LNG terminal operator Elengy, the top European importer of Russian gas, has agreed to ban Russian transhipments of the super-chilled fuel through its infrastructure starting next spring. Bar graph showing Europe's natural gas import source over four years. Elengy disclosed it is planning to fully comply with the 14th package of European Union (EU) sanctions on Russia, including participation in a mandatory reporting program to track deliveries of LNG volumes.Despite discussions of an EU-wide ban of Russian LNG, France has received a record volume of Russian LNG this year. Europe has imported 16.37 million tons (Mt) of Russian LNG since the beginning of the year, including 5.9 Mt via French terminals, according to Kpler data.

Moldova declares state of emergency over expected halt to Russian gas -- Moldova's parliament on Friday voted to approve a 60-day state of emergency, citing fears of an immediate threat to the security of its citizens ahead of an expected halt in Russian gas flows. Russian gas currently reaches Moldova, a landlocked country in the northeastern corner of Europe's Balkan region, via its neighbor of Ukraine.However, a gas transit deal between Russia's Gazprom and Ukraine's Naftogaz is set to expire on Dec. 31 and Kyiv has repeatedly said it has no intention to extend the contract.A total of 56 lawmakers of Moldova's 101-seat parliamentvoted in favor of a nationwide state of emergency, which the government said would allow the country to apply a series of measures to prevent and mitigate the threat of insufficient energy resources.The cessation of Russian gas to Moldova's Transnistrian regioncould generate "a humanitarian crisis" as well as "risks to the functioning and stability" of the country's energy sector, according to a press release from Moldova's parliament.Moldova Prime Minister Dorin Recean said this winter must be the last in the country's history that it can be held hostage over energy supplies.Russia, which launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine nearly three years ago, has previously said it stands ready to continue to supply gas to Europe via Ukraine.Russia launched a massive aerial strike against Ukraine's energy infrastructure on Friday morning. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Moscow used 93 missiles and nearly 200 drones in the attack.

BP, Adnoc Launch Middle Eastern Natural Gas Platform with Initial Focus in Egypt -Arcius Energy, created by BP plc and Abu Dhabi National Oil Co., aka Adnoc, is looking to build a regional natural gas platform to serve markets in the Middle East, initially in Egypt. Map showing Arcius southern Mediterranean concessions. Expand The joint venture (JV) has a mission to “responsibly contribute to the transformation of considerable natural gas assets to meet growing domestic energy demand – and to contribute to energy security and economic development in the region,” the partners said. “We believe that lower carbon natural gas can support the energy transition and provide customers with the energy they need to thrive.”

Chevron, Woodside Swap LNG Assets as Majors Look to Trim Focus, Boost Earnings -Chevron Corp. and Woodside Energy Group Ltd. have agreed to a swap of Australian assets aimed at boosting core earning power for both companies and progressing the North West Shelf (NWS) LNG project. Map showing Australia and nearby LNG export and liquefaction facilities. Under the agreement, Woodside plans to acquire Chevron’s equity stakes in the NWS natural gas, the NWS oil and the Angel Carbon Capture and Storage projects. In exchange, the Australian energy giant will transfer its interest in the Wheatstone LNG facility and the Julimar-Brunello gas fields to Chevron. “This transaction simplifies our portfolio, improving our focus and efficiency by consolidating our position in our operated LNG assets,” Woodside CEO Meg O’Neill said. “It is immediately cash flow accretive and includes a cash payment upon both execution and completion.”

Two Russian oil tankers wrecked in Black Sea's Kerch Strait -Two Russian oil tankers have been badly damaged in the Black Sea, causing an oil spill, authorities in Russia have said. Footage released by Russia's Southern Transport Prosecutor's Office showed the bow of one tanker completely broken off, with streaks of oil visible in the water. Both tankers are believed to have drifted before running aground offshore. At least one crew member was reportedly killed. The incident took place in the Kerch Strait, which separates Russia from Crimea - the Ukrainian peninsula illegally annexed by Moscow in 2014. A rescue operation involving tugboats, helicopters and more than 50 personnel saw 13 crew members rescued from one tanker, before being suspended due to bad weather. Fourteen crew members who had been stranded aboard a second tanker were also rescued, the Russian emergencies ministry said on Monday. President Vladimir Putin has ordered a working group to be set up to deal with the incident, headed by Deputy Prime Minister Vitaly Savelyev - and authorities are investigating for criminal negligence. Michelle Bockmann, an analyst at shipping industry journal Lloyd's List, told the BBC the two vessels are owned by the company Volgatanker and were relatively small. They had been carrying around 4,300 dead weight tonnes of oil each, according to Russian officials quoted by Tass news agency. A tanker used for trading Russian crude oil internationally generally has a much larger carrying capacity of around 120,000 dead weight tonnes, Bockmann said, meaning it is likely these tankers were used for transporting oil through Russia's rivers or in coastal waters. The Kerch Strait is a key route for exports of Russian grain and it is also used for exports of crude oil, fuel oil and liquefied natural gas. In 2007, another oil tanker - Volgoneft-139 - split in half during a storm while anchored off the Kerch Strait, spilling more than 1,000 tonnes of oil. Russian oil imports have been heavily sanctioned by allies of Ukraine since the Kremlin ordered the full-scale invasion of the country in February 2022. In recent years, Russia has been accused of using a so-called ghost fleet of tankers, which are often poorly maintained and lack proper insurance, to move oil and circumvent sanctions - though Bockmann said it did not appear the tankers involved in Sunday's incident were part of that fleet.

Oil Spill Devastates Russian Coastline After Tanker Accident -- Dozens of kilometers of Black Sea coastline in Russia's Krasnodar region have been covered in heavy fuel oil, local authorities and residentsreported on December 17, after two oil tankers were heavily damaged during a storm in the Kerch Strait.Regional Governor Veniamin Kondratyev said cleanup crews were being dispatched to the area as high winds helped spread large amounts of spilled oil along the coastline, raising concerns of an impending environmental disaster in the Black Sea.Social media photos and video showed wildlife covered in dark liquid, the result of the December 15 incident involving two Volgoneft tankers that were carrying thousands of tons of mazut -- low-quality heavy fuel oil.The vessels reportedly ran aground in the ecologically sensitive waters off Ukraine's Moscow-annexed Crimean coastline. One of the tankers reportedly capsized and split into two during a severe storm. Waves as high as 3-4 meters, considered dangerous for such vessels, are believed to have caused the accident.Reports of environmental degradation are mounting as more and more oil spreads across the sea and onto shores that are summer havens for families.Local residents painted a dire picture of the shoreline, noting oil-covered birds that cannotfly and stray dogs covered in fuel oil roaming the shore.They also noted the strong scent of oil in the air with many residents complaining of nausea and skin and eye irritations.Almost 300 people, including volunteers and heavy equipment, are working to minimize the consequences of the accident, officials said.Two municipalities have organized operational headquarters for cleaning. Environmentalists, however, warn that the spill's size may already be too big to handle.The chairman of the region's maritime trade unions, Leonid Glushak, told the Kedr website that the overwhelming majority of the fuel oil has already seeped into the sea, exacerbating the eco-catastrophe.According to Glushak, Volgoneft tankers, intended for river voyages, are inadequate for open sea water such as the Kerch Strait.Moscow has been using a so-called shadow fleet of tankers -- a group of old, uninsured oil vessels -- to bypass Western sanctions imposed over its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The poor condition of these ships has raised concerns about environmental disasters.Authorities have started criminal investigations into the accident, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy warned could be repeated in other areas of Europe."Our sea is facing yet another environmental disaster caused by Russia. But there are even larger and more dangerous Russian tankers operating in your seas. Stopping this fleet is not just about cutting off Russia’s war funding -- it’s about protecting nature," he said in a post on X on December 17.

Ukraine calls for sanctions against Russia oil tankers over Black Sea spill - Ukraine has called on the international community to take action against Russia’s sanctions-busting oil fleet, after an ageing tanker sank in the Black Sea, causing a major environmental disaster. The Russian cargo ship, Volgoneft-212, broke in half during a heavy storm off the coast of occupied Crimea on Sunday. A second tanker, Volgoneft-239, got into difficulties in the same area. It eventually ran aground near the port of Taman at the south end of the Kerch strait. The two boats were carrying more than 9,000 tonnes of heavy fuel oil. According to satellite data, about 3,000 tonnes had leaked out. “Unfortunately some tanks were damaged. The remaining ones are sealed,” a marine scientist, Sergei Stanichny, told the Russian news agency Tass, confirming the spill. A rescue operation involving tug boats and two helicopters was launched on Sunday. Video footage showed the bow of the snapped boat sticking vertically out of the water. Crew members stood on the bridge wearing lifejackets. One sailor died and 11 were taken to hospital with hypothermia. Ukraine accused the Kremlin of recklessness and of violating basic operating rules. On Monday, Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the head of the office of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said on social media that the pollution was the worst this century in the Black Sea region, and the second worst ever. “It is now obvious that any sanctions against the Russian tanker fleet are always useful, but they are all too late,” he posted.“The accidents on two rusty vessels in the #Kerch Strait resulted in another large-scale environmental disaster of our war. Thousands of tons of fuel oil spilled ... causing tragic damage to the natural systems of the #Azov and Black Seas.”Podolyak said the tankers were built more than 50 years ago and should never have been used in winter storms. He added that they belonged to a 1,000-strong shadow fleet used by Russia to export oil and to dodge western sanctions since its full-scale invasion in 2022.Most boats were “hopelessly outdated”, Podalyak said, alleging that they had “fictitious insurance policies”, hid their real owners and “overloaded” oil at sea. Further large-scale accidents were “statistically inevitable”, and the cost of clean-up operations would fall on affected neighbouring countries. The adviser called for “the most stringent sanctions” against the vessels and people associated with them. He said states should prohibit their entry into territorial and international waters and outlaw “the transhipment of Russian oil”. Tankers should be required to have proper protection and indemnity insurance, he said.

Third Tanker Sends Distress Signal as Russia Deals With Black Sea Oil Spill - The Moscow Times -- A third Russian-flagged tanker has issued a distress signal two days after a storm badly damaged two other vessels and caused a major oil spill, the Interfax news agency reported Tuesday, citing authorities and emergency services. The Volgoneft 109 tanker was anchored in the waters of Port Kavkaz in the Kerch Strait when its captain reported a damaged cargo tank, federal shipping agency Rosmorrechflot said. The Kerch Strait connects the Black and Azov seas, as well as annexed Crimea and mainland Russia. “The water tightness of the hull itself is not compromised, there is no leakage into the sea,” Interfax quoted a Rosmorrechflot spokesperson as saying. Volgoneft 109 was carrying fuel oil known as mazut when it issued the distress signal due to a crack on board, an emergency source was quoted as saying. The press service of the Krasnodar region branch of Russia’s Emergency Situations Ministry said the incident with Volgoneft 109 was “not critical.” Volgoneft 109 is carrying some 4,000 metric tons of fuel oil and has 14 crew members, according to the Baza Telegram news channel, which is believed to have ties to Russian law enforcement. Baza said the ship issued a distress signal shortly after midnight Tuesday.On Sunday, a storm ripped the Volgoneft 212 tanker in half and ran Volgoneft 239 aground in the Kerch Strait, spilling an estimated 3,000 metric tons of oil products that washed up on the Black Sea coast by Tuesday morning. Greenpeace Ukraine warned of an environmental catastrophe.The spillage extended to more than 23 kilometers across the resort of Anapa, regional emergency chief Sergei Shtrikov said. Anapa and two other Krasnodar region villages declared a state of emergency due to the oil spill.One crew member of Volgoneft 212 was killed and 26 others were rescued from both tankers after Sunday’s storm. Media reported that the vessels were more than 50 years old.

What The Largest-Ever Oil Deal Between India and Russia Really Means - The new Trump Administration may target Russia's recent oil deals as part of its sanctions discussions. Russia's Rosneft has signed a $13 billion annual crude oil supply agreement with Indian downstream giant Reliance Industries, committing to supply 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) for 10 years. This deal constitutes 0.5% of the global oil supply and is the largest-ever commercial agreement between Russia and India. Facing Western sanctions on its oil sector, Russia is actively seeking alternative clients. India has become its largest oil importer since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, benefiting from discounted crude prices of $3-4 per barrel. This deal solidifies Russian-Indian cooperation and could cause friction among OPEC+ members as Russia encroaches on Gulf producers’ market share in India, a key growth market. Saudi Arabia and the UAE face heightened competition, particularly since the deal supplies a substantial portion of India’s oil demand. Reliance will receive approximately 20-21 Aframax-sized cargoes of crude and three fuel oil cargoes per month at its Jamnagar refinery. The pricing will be market-driven for the first year. Reliance will now account for around 50% of Rosneft's seaborne exports, increasing its intake from an average of 405,000 bpd in 2024 to 388,500 bpd in 2023. However, the partnership faces risks from growing U.S., UK, and EU sanctions, which are intensifying against Russian clients like India and China. This comes amid declining Russian oil exports, which dropped by 120,000 bpd to 7.33 million bpd in November. Despite a 7% decline in revenue, Russian oil revenues remain higher than anticipated at $14.56 billion. Western sanctions also significantly impact Russia’s Arctic LNG operations. For example, the ice-capable LNG carrier Christophe de Margerie faces operational issues due to limited access to European shipyards and spare parts. The vessel has been out of service since the fall and unable to transport Yamal LNG cargoes.

Venezuela Sends Crude to India in New Deal --A high-seas oil tango is back on between Venezuela's state oil company PDVSA and India’s Reliance Industries, rekindling a swap arrangement paused by U.S. sanctions. This revival, greenlit by a U.S. license in July, signals a cautious step forward for both players. But onlookers shouldn't break out the champagne just yet.Earlier this month, a supertanker brimming with 1.9 million barrels of Venezuela’s Merey heavy crude set sail for India’s Sikka port. In return, Reliance delivered 500,000 barrels of heavy naphtha to PDVSA—a cocktail Venezuelan refineries desperately need to process their sludgy crude. The document detailing this exchange, seen Thursday, suggests a delicate dance of compliance and opportunism. For Reliance, this isn’t its first diplomatic oil shuffle. India paused its Venezuelan oil purchases back in March, spooked by whispers that U.S. sanctions might boomerang. That pause didn’t just reflect regulatory jitters—it underscored the global high stakes of keeping Washington happy. But now, with the ink barely dry on that U.S. license, Reliance appears ready to wade back in, albeit carefully.Venezuela, for its part, is riding a tricky wave. Its sanctions-hit oil sector has relied on barter-style deals to survive, trading crude for much-needed diluents and other essentials. Reliance's return is a lifeline, but it’s a tenuous one—dependent on staying within the narrow lines of U.S. approval.Looking at the oil trade globally, the swaps are but a flash in the pan.However, the swaps do offer a glimpse into the power behind U.S. policy tweaks.While India was out of the mix, Russia and China were the main destinations for Venezuelan crude oil.

QatarEnergy Joins Joint Venture Offshore Namibia - QatarEnergy has acquired a 27.5% stake in a drilling license offshore Namibia, with drilling expected to start this month, Sintana Energy said in a Dec. 16 press release. PEL 90 (petroleum exploration license) is about 200 km offshore in Namibia’s Orange Basin operated by Harmattan Energy Ltd., an indirect subsidiary of Chevron Corp. Chevron Harmattan, the operator, will own 52.5% of the joint venture. Namibia’s state-owned oil company and Trago Energy will each own 10%. Trago is a wholly owned subsidiary of Custos Energy Ltd. Sintana has a 49% indirect interest in Custos. The joint venture contracted Northern Ocean’s semi-submersible drilling rig Deepsea Bollsta for its first exploration campaign in PEL 90. The rig is setting up to drill the Kapana-1X well in December, Sintana said.

Oil spill occurs in Nigeria due to pipeline rupture - An oil spill occurred at the Shell loading terminal in Nigeria’s Delta region after a pipeline ruptured, Nigeria’s maritime agency said on 15 November.The Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA) stated that the spill occurred on 14 November at the Bonny terminal and has reached shoreline. NIMASA says that it is actively monitoring the situation. Additionally, the agency added that it was also working with Shell Petroleum Development Company (SPDC) and other stakeholders to assess the extent of the spill and follow-up actions.The maritime agency said SPDC has shut down the affected pipeline and deployed containment booms to protect neighbouring communities.

Oil spill occurs at Shell terminal in Nigeria (Reuters) - An oil spill has occurred at the Shell loading terminal in Nigeria's Delta region after a pipeline ruptured, Nigeria's maritime agency said on Sunday. The Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA) said the spill which occurred on Saturday at the Bonny terminal has reached shoreline and that it was actively monitoring the situation. NIMASA added that it was also working with Shell Petroleum Development Company (SPDC) and other stakeholders to assess the extent of the spill and follow-up actions. The maritime agency said SPDC has shut down the affected pipeline and deployed containment booms to protect neighbouring communities.

Shell Closes Pipeline Temporarily Due to Oil Spill at Bonny Terminal, Nigeria | Pipeline Technology Journal -- Shell Petroleum Development Company (SPDC) of Nigeria Limited has temporarily shut one of its oil pipelines in Nigeria following a rapture at a loading terminal in Bonny, Rivers State, which led to an oil spill over the weekend. The Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA) confirmed that the spill had reached the shoreline. The agency said SPDC immediately shut down the pipeline and deployed containment booms to protect nearby communities. “NIMASA is actively monitoring the situation from an emergency operations center and collaborating with SPDC and other relevant stakeholders to assess the extent of the spill and determine necessary follow-up actions,” said Osagie Edward, head of public relations at NIMASA. The agency urged the public to remain calm, assuring them that it is committed to mitigating the impact of the spill and restoring affected areas.

Saudi Crude Oil Exports Jumped to Three-Month High in October - Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports rose to a three-month high in October, the latest data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI)showed on Wednesday.Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude oil exporter, shipped 5.92 million bpd of crude to customers in October, up by 174,000 bpd compared to September. This was the highest average export volume from Saudi Arabia for three months, according to the JODI database which compiles self-reported figures from individual countries. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia continues to stick to its pledge to pump “around 9 million bpd”. Crude oil production inched down by 3,000 bpd to average 8.972 million bpd in October, per the data the Kingdom has reported to JODI. Refinery runs fell slightly to 2.737 million bpd, while direct crude burning for power generation continued to drop as the hottest months in the desert Kingdom ended. Direct crude burn slumped by 156,000 bpd to 362,000 bpd, according to the data in JODI. Saudi Arabia and its partners in the OPEC+ group earlier this month decided to delay the start of the easing of the 2.2 million bpd cuts to April 2025, from January 2025. The group also extended the period in which it would unwind all these cuts into the following year, until September 2026. Saudi Arabia is not only shouldering the largest volume of the OPEC+-wide cuts as a top producer, but it is also cutting production by another 1 million bpd in a unilateral move. All these cuts have failed to boost oil prices this year, due to weaker-than-expected oil demand, especially in China. Oil demand growth is expected to remain fairly modest next year, which could further complicate the exit strategy of Saudi Arabia and the OPEC+ alliance, analysts say. At the same time, supply from non-OPEC+ producers, including the U.S., Brazil, and Guyana, is set to increase and further erode OPEC’s market share.

Opec+ wary of rise in US oil output under Trump Opec+ members are contemplating a renewed rise in US oil output when Donald Trump returns to the White House, delegates from the group said.More US oil would further erode Opec+ market share and hamper the producer group’s efforts to support prices. Opec+ pumps about half of the world’s oil and earlier this month delayed a plan to raise output until April.The group extended some of its supply cuts until the end of 2026 due to weak demand and booming production from the US and some other non-Opec+ producers.Opec has a history of underestimating US output gains going back to the start of the shale oil boom, which resulted in the US becoming the world’s top oil producer. It now pumps a fifth of world supply.Some delegates are more bullish on US oil and say the reason behind this is Trump. Following an election centred on the economy and the cost of living, Trump’s transition team put together a wide-ranging package to deregulate the energy sector.“I think the return of Trump is good news for the oil industry, with possibly less stringent environmental policies,” a delegate from a US ally Opec+ member said.“But we may see higher production in the United States, which is not good for us.” Vienna-based Opec did not respond to a request for comment.

Oil Futures Fell on Disappointing China Retail Sales Data --- A bearish sentiment dominated the futures oil market to start the week Monday after last week's gains due to mixed data from China confirming weaker consumption activity continues. China's retail sales dropped to 3.0% in November, year-over-year, below 4.8% reported in October, according to China's National Bureau of Statistics on Monday. Ethanol RINs were mixed, and ethanol cash prices were higher on Friday. March corn closed up 5 1/2 cents at $4.46 1/4, and May corn was up 5 1/2 cents at... Oil futures prices reversed their losses recorded this morning to settle higher on Friday, despite expectations that abundant supplies and weak demand will... "This was the big disappointment of the month, as retail sales failed to build upon the momentum and came in well softer than both consensus and our forecasts", said Lynn Song, chief economist at ING, in a report Monday. In contrast, China's Consumer Price Index in November rose by 0.2%, year-on-year, down from 0.3% the previous month. â?¯ Last week at the Central Economic Work Conference, China's top leaders pledged to implement a loose monetary policy for the first time in over a decade, by increasing government spending to boost consumption and incentivizing more domestic private sector investments. But until those measures are put into practice, the outlook of a sluggish demand from China, the largest crude importer of the world, caused OPEC to reduce its forecast of global oil demand for 2025 last week.â?¯The oil cartel expects 1.45 million barrels per day (bpd) of international demand for 2025, below 1.54 million bpd previously forecasted. Meanwhile, in the U.S. market participants are awaiting the Federal Open Committee meeting on Dec. 18, where the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points after the 0.7% hike of the Consumer Price Index in November raised concerns about inflationary pressures on the U.S. economy. At 7:55 a.m. EST, January NYMEX WTI futures edged down by $0.47 to $70.82 and February Brent future dropped $0.40 to $74.09 barrel (bbl). The front-month ULSD futures contract fell $0.0041 to $2.2659 gallon, while January RBOB for January delivery edged $0.0111 to $1.9907 gallon.

Crude Oil Dips as Chinese Demand Weaken and Fed Decision Looms - The oil market on Monday traded lower as concerns over Chinese demand outweighed threats of tighter sanctions on Russia and Iran. Last week, the market was well supported by expectations that supply would tighten with additional sanctions on Russia and Iran. However, the market’s gains were limited by economic reports showing that China’s retail sales in November increased less than expected, with an increase of 3.0% in November, down from a 4.8% increase in October. The oil market opened at a high of $71.44 before it started to retrace some of its recent gains. The market posted a low of $70.37 early in the morning before it settled in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session. The crude market also saw some profit taking ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates on Wednesday. The January WTI contract ended the session down 58 cents at $70.71, while the February Brent contract settled down 58 cents at $73.91. The product markets ended the session lower, with the heating oil market settling down 60 points at $2.2640 and the RB market settling down 2.61 cents at $1.9757.Barclays lowered its 2025 fair value estimate for Brent to $83/barrel. It stated that a 500,000 bpd deviation in demand relative to their estimates would imply a $10/barrel swing in the $80/barrel fair value estimate for Brent in the fourth quarter of 2025. It said its 2024 global oil demand growth forecast is down 140,000 bpd to 900,000 bpd. It said that for 2025, its aggregate oil demand estimate is little changed at 104.3 million bpd but its growth forecast is 210,000 bpd higher. The bank stated that its estimate for growth in OPEC crude fell 540,000 bpd due largely to the group’s recent decision.Crude demand in China has weakened and is a bearish factor for oil prices. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, China’s Nov apparent oil demand fell -2.14% y/y to 14.013 million bpd, and Jan-Nov apparent oil demand was down -3.26% y/y to 13.996 million bpd. China is the world’s second-largest crude consumer.IIREnergy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 265,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending December 20th, decreasing available refining capacity by 171,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 25,000 bpd in the week ending December 27th.The U.S. Climate Prediction Center reported Monday morning that for the week ending December 14thit estimated the U.S. saw some 207 HDDs on an oil home weighted basis. While this was some 10.6% more than estimated a week ago it was still expected to be 5% less than normal but was still 6.7% colder than the same week a year ago. For the current week ending December 21st, the CPC is forecasting just 191 HDDs, some 18% less than normal and nearly equal to the same week a year ago.

Oil sags on soft Chinese spending, investor pause before US Fed rate move (Reuters) - Oil futures slipped from the highest levels in several weeks on Monday on weakness in consumer spending in China, the world's largest oil importer, and as investors paused buying ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Brent crude futures settled at $73.91 a barrel, down 58 cents, or 0.8% lower, after settling on Friday at their highest since Nov. 22. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $70.71 a barrel, shedding 58 cents, and also down 0.8% the session after it registered its highest close since Nov. 7. Last week, oil benefited from the expectation that supply would tighten with additional sanctions on crude producers Russia and Iran, while possible lower interest rates in the U.S. and Europe would spur demand. "We feel that last week’s events have been appropriately priced and that this week will be bringing fewer items capable of supporting oil prices," Chinese retail sales were slower than expected, keeping pressure on Beijing to ramp up stimulus for a fragile economy facing U.S. trade tariffs under a second Trump administration. "It's just a very bearish scenario where there's not a lot hope of demand growth for crude oil," The Chinese outlook contributed the decision by oil producer group OPEC+ to postpone plans for higher output until April. "Whatever stimulus is being deployed, consumers are not buying into it; and without a serious sea-change in personal spending behaviour, China's economic fortunes will be stunted," Traders also took profits while awaiting the U.S. Central Bank's decision on interest rates this week. IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said that light profit-taking was to be expected after prices jumped more than 6% last week. He noted that many banks and funds are likely to have closed their books given reduced appetite for positions during the holiday season. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point at its Dec. 17-18 meeting, which will also provide an updated look at how much further Fed officials think they will reduce rates in 2025 and perhaps into 2026. Lower interest rates can stimulate economic growth and increase oil demand. Oil prices were further pressured by the U.S. dollar, which briefly hovered close to a three-week high versus other major currencies, ahead of the week of central bank meetings. The U.S. dollar and commodities like crude oil tend to trade inversely. Investors were also looking to U.S. oil inventory reports coming up this week for guidance. U.S. crude oil and distillate inventories were expected to have fallen last week, while gasoline stocks likely rose, a preliminary Reuters poll showed ahead of a report from the American Petroleum Institute at 4:30 p.m. EST (2130 GMT) on Tuesday and one from the Energy Information Administration at 10:30 a.m. EST (1530 GMT) on Wednesday Four analysts polled by Reuters estimated on average that crude inventories fell by about 1.9 million barrels in the week to Dec. 13.

Demand Concerns Continue to Weigh on Oil Ahead of Fed Meeting - Oil prices are under pressure ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting, with demand concerns continuing to weigh on both WTI and Brent.

• - The huge price volatility of the past couple of months has made European natural gas futures one of the favorite trading instruments of hedge funds as TTF futures continue to trade above €40 per MWh.
• - The combination of rapidly depleting European gas inventories and a still unclear outlook for Russian pipeline gas into Europe next year have lifted total long positions of institutional investors to almost 500 million MWh equivalent.
• - Whilst the short-term outlook of European gas remains bullish, the risk remains that after the winter scare prices could collapse as hedge funds start to unwind their positions, particularly on the back of new LNG supply into 2026.
• - For comparison, net positioning in Henry Hub US gas futures remains overwhelmingly bearish, with the net shortcoming in just below 80,000 contracts in the week to December 10, the 22nd consecutive week of hedge funds shorting gas.
• - US oil firm Kosmos Energy has reportedly withdrawn from making an offer for fellow Africa-focused producer Tullow Oil, aggravating the latter’s decline as its shares fell 44% this year.
• - US refining giant Phillips66 announced it would sell its 25% stake in the Gulf Coast Express Pipeline to ArcLight Capital Partners for $865 million, setting it on course to exceed its asset sale target.
• - QatarEnergy has boosted its presence in Namibia by farming into Chevron’s (NYSE:CVX) operated license PEL90, acquiring a 27.5% non-operated stake as it already co-owns blocks containing the giant Venus and Graff discoveries.

ICE Brent continues to trade within a narrow range of $72-74 per barrel as the previous week’s slightly bullish sentiment, coming mostly from US and EU sanctions on Russia, has hit another roadblock. It’s China again souring the demand outlook, with November data for industrial output and retail sales both coming in below expectations, so it’s only the Fed that can add some upside now. According to a Reuters report, the incoming administration of Donald Trump is suggesting the elimination of Biden’s $7,500 tax credit on EVs, easing tailpipe pollution mandates and imposing tariffs on all battery materials globally to kickstart US production. China’s coal production rose to an average daily rate of 14.27 million tonnes in November, the highest pace on record a whopping 7% month-over-month increase, as state-controlled producers ramped up output ahead of winter heating demand. Global trading house Trafigura saw a steep decline in its 2024 earnings on the heels of its billion-dollar fraud scheme in Mongolia, posting a 60% year-over-year decline to $2.8 billion even as its traded oil and fuel oil volumes rose to 6.8 million b/d. As November data for Chinese imports and refinery runs trickled in, China has imported and produced 1.77 million b/d more than itconsumed last month, and even accounting for some lacking information this seems to suggest a huge stock build across the country. In line with OPEC+’s push for stronger discipline in meeting joint production targets, the UAE’s state oil firm ADNOC has pledged to cut exported volumes by up to 230,000 b/d in Q1 2025, mostly cutting flows of light Murban and medium sour Upper Zakum.

Oil prices ease 1% to one-week low on weak Chinese, German economic data (Reuters) - Oil prices eased about 1% to a one-week low on Tuesday on demand worries following the release of negative economic news from Germany and China, while investors remained cautious ahead of a U.S. Federal Reserve decision on interest rates.Brent futures fell 72 cents, or 1.0%, to settle at $73.19 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude slipped 63 cents, or 0.9%, to settle at $70.08.That was the lowest close for Brent since Dec. 10 and cut the premium of Brent over WTI to a 12-week low of $3.54 a barrel, based on the February contracts.Analysts have said when Brent's premium over WTI falls below $4 a barrel, it does not make as much economic sense for energy firms to send ships to pick up U.S. crude, which should result in lower U.S. exports.In China, the world's second-biggest economy, industrial output growth quickened slightly in November, while retail sales disappointed, keeping alive calls for Beijing to ramp up consumer-focused stimulus as policymakers brace for more U.S. trade tariffs once President-elect Donald Trump takes office for a second time.In Germany, business morale worsened more than expected in December, according to a survey by the Ifo Institute, weighed down by companies' pessimistic assessment of the coming months amid geopolitical uncertainty and an industrial slump in Europe's largest economy. "The only good thing about Germany's just-released Ifo index is that it is the final major macro indicator released this year. Time to ... end a year that will go down as the second consecutive year of economic stagnation," analysts at ING, a bank, said in a note.In the world's biggest economy, meanwhile, U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in November amid an acceleration in motor vehicle and online purchases.The report from the U.S. Commerce Department had no impact on expectations that the Fed would cut interest rates on Wednesday for the third time since the U.S. central bank initiated its policy easing cycle.Investors, however, will watch U.S. policymakers' forecasts for signals on whether the Fed will be more cautious in 2025, as economic indicators, such as the retail sales data, point to continued resilience and inflation remains persistent.After hiking rates aggressively in 2022 and 2023 to tame a surge in inflation, the Fed started to lower rates in September.Lower rates decrease borrowing costs, which can boost economic growth and demand for oil. In Kazakhstan, a member of the OPEC+ group of countries, oil and gas condensate output is now expected to be 87.8 million metric tons in 2024, down from the previously expected figure of more than 88 million tons (1.76 million barrels per day), Energy Minister Almasadam Satkaliyev said.The European Union adopted a 15th package of sanctions against Russia, another member of OPEC+, over its invasion of Ukraine, including tougher measures against Chinese entities and more vessels from Moscow's so-called shadow fleet.Britain also sanctioned ships it alleged were carrying illicit Russian oil.OPEC+ includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies like Kazakhstan and Russia that have agreed to curtail output to support oil prices.

Oil prices tally back-to-back losses as concerns over the outlook for demand prevail - Oil prices on Tuesday tallied back-to-back losses, pulling global benchmark Brent crude to its lowest finish in a week, as recent downbeat Chinese economic data raised concerns over the prospects for energy demand. Traders also looked toward news due out Wednesday, with the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates expected to impact demand for oil, and the Energy Information Administration set to provide updates on U.S. petroleum supplies and production.

• -- West Texas Intermediate crude CL.1 for January delivery CLF25 was off 63 cents, or 0.9%, to settle at at $70.08 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down a second straight session.
• -- February Brent crude BRN00 BRNG25, the global benchmark, lost 72 cents, or 1%, to $73.19 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, with prices settling at their lowest since Dec. 10, FactSet data show.
• -- January gasoline RBF25 declined 1.6% to $1.94 a gallon, while January heating oil HOF25 fell 1.6% to $2.23 a gallon.
• -- Natural gas for January delivery NGF25 climbed by 2.9%, to $3.31 per million British thermal units.

Oil prices flashed red for a second day after disappointing data from China "fanned concerns about slowing demand in the world's largest energy consumer," Oil's declines so far this week follow gains last week, when prices were supported by China's recent economic stimulus measures. WTI crude-oil futures fell Monday as the "combination of soft retail sales and fixed-asset investment numbers out of China overshadowed the solid composite PMI reports in Europe and the U.S.," analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in Tuesday's newsletter. The downbeat Chinese economic data also proved to "more than offset" further escalations in geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine over the weekend, as the latter launched a drone strike that reportedly successfully hit an important fuel-storage depot in central Russia, they said. Providing some support for prices, the European Commission on Monday announced a 15th package of EU sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, this one targeting non-EU tankers that are part of Moscow's so-called shadow fleet carrying Russian oil.In the U.S., traders also awaited the Federal Open Market Committee's policy decision, set to be announced Wednesday afternoon at the conclusion of the central bank's two-day meeting. Policy makers are widely expected to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. "If the Fed can move ahead with deeper cuts, a weaker dollar may boost oil, which is priced in dollars," said Otunuga. Over in the Middle East, a cease-fire agreement to halt the Gaza war could be signed in the coming days, according to a report from Reuters. Easing tensions in the oil-rich Middle East could help tone down worries about global oil supplies.Meanwhile, the Energy Information Administration will release its weekly data on U.S. petroleum supplies Wednesday morning.On average, analysts forecast a decline in domestic commercial crude inventory of 1.8 million barrels for the week that ended Dec. 13, according to a survey conducted by S&P Global Commodity Insights. They also forecast weekly supply gains of 2.1 million for gasoline and 600,000 barrels for distillates. Looking ahead to 2025, the oil market "could be rocked if [President-elect Donald] Trump's proposed tariffs hit China's economy" despite the decision by the group of major oil producers known as OPEC+ to delay intended output hikes until April 2025, "Alternatively, a recovery in China, Iran sanctions and geopolitical risk could lead to a significant rally,"

WTI Holds Gains As 'Tank Bottoms' Loom At Cushing Hub; Crude Stocks Drop For 4th Straight Week -Oil prices are higher this morning after API's overnight report signaled a sizable drawdown in US commercial crude inventories and Kazakhstan pledged to comply with OPEC+ production quotas. The cartel member had earlier unsettled markets by signaling that it would adhere to its original plan of raising oil output by 190,000 barrels a day, according to Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group, despite OPEC’s decision to delay production hikes. Still,“the rally remains fragile, with broader macroeconomic factors continuing to dominate price movements,” Babin said. “The upcoming Federal Reserve statement and potential shifts in China’s economic policy are key factors that will likely shape the medium-term direction for crude prices.” in the even shorter-term, this morning's official inventory and supply data will be the focus. API

• Crude -4.7MM
• Gasoline +2.4MM
• Distillates -0.7MM
• Cushing +0.8MM

Crude stocks declined for the 4th straight week, according to official data (but last week saw a far smaller drawdown than API reported). Gasoline stocks rose for the 5th straight week... Source: Bloomberg Despite a 519k barrel addition to the SPR, total crude stocks fell for the 4th week in a row.

Crude Oil Gains Limited after Federal Reserve Signals Interest Rate Cuts Next Year -- The oil market retraced some of its recent losses in light of the weekly petroleum stocks reports showing draws in crude stocks. However, its gains were limited after the Federal Reserve signaled that it would slow the pace of interest rates cuts next year. The crude market posted a low of $70.05 in overnight trading and gradually traded higher after the EIA reported a draw in crude stocks of 934,000 barrels. This followed a draw of 4.69 million barrels reported by the API late Tuesday. The market posted a high of $71.38 by mid-day before it settled in a sideways trading range ahead of the Federal Reserve interest rate decision. The market later found some selling pressure ahead of the close after the Fed cut rates by the expected 25 basis points but cut the pace of rate cuts for next year due to expectations of higher inflation. The January WTI contract settled up 50 cents at $70.58 and the February Brent contract settled up 20 cents at $73.39. The product markets ended the session mixed, with the heating oil market settling up 2.71 cents at $2.255 and the RB market settling down 11 points at $1.9428. The EIA reported that U.S. crude and distillate inventories fell in the week ending December 13th as exports increased. Crude inventories fell by 934,000 barrels to 421 million barrels in the week. U.S. crude exports increased by 1.8 million bpd to 4.89 million bpd. Distillate stocks fell by 3.2 million barrels on the week to 118.2 million barrels as total U.S. distillate demand increased to about 4.5 million bpd, the highest level since March 2022. Distillate demand increased by more than 1 million bpd last week, the highest weekly increase since December 2021.The U.S. EPA said it has approved California’s landmark plan to end the sale of gasoline –only vehicles by 2035. EPA Administrator Michael Regan granted a waiver under the Clean Air Act to California to implement its plan to require that by 2035 at least 80% of new cars sold be electric and up to 20% plug-in hybrid models.Bloomberg News is reporting that the transition team for the incoming Trump administration is recommending potential policy changes during the first 100 days in office that will seek to cut federal subsidies to boost electric vehicles. But the group is also looking to encourage relaxing environmental reviews and speeding up permitting for federally funded EV and infrastructure projects, including the development of batteries and critical minerals. IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 265,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending December 20th, cutting available refining capacity by 171,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 25,000 bpd in the week ending December 27th.The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates on Wednesday by 25 basis points and signaled it will slow the pace at which borrowing costs fall any further given a relatively stable unemployment rate and little recent improvement in inflation. U.S. central bankers now project they will make just two quarter-percentage-point rate reductions by the end of 2025. That is half a percentage point less in policy easing next year than officials anticipated as of September, with Fed projections of inflation for the first year of the new Trump administration increasing from 2.1% in their prior projections to 2.5% in the current ones, well above the central bank’s 2% target. With Wednesday’s rate cut, the Fed has now cut rates a full percentage point this year. Fed officials also increased their estimate of the long -run neutral rate of interest to 3%.

Oil prices settle higher with U.S. crude supplies down a 4th straight week -Oil futures on Wednesday posted their first gain in three sessions, with prices getting a lift from official U.S. data showing a fourth consecutive weekly decline in domestic crude inventories.Prices, however, pared some of their gains after the Federal Reserve on Wednesday afternoon cut its main policy interest-rate target by 25 basis points as expected, but signaled a much slower pace of rate cuts than previously expected for next year.

• -- West Texas Intermediate crude for January delivery CL.1 CLF25 rose 50 cents, or 0.7%, to settle at $70.58 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, ahead of the contract's expiration at the end of Thursday's session. The more actively traded February contract CL00 CLG25 added 37 cents, or 0.5%, at $70.02 a barrel.
• -- February Brent crude BRN00 BRNG25, the global benchmark, gained 20 cents, or 0.3%, to $73.39 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.
• -- January gasoline RBF25 lost nearly 0.1% to $1.94 a gallon, while January heating oil HOF25 added 1.2% to $2.26 a gallon.
• -- Natural gas for January delivery NGF25 settled at $3.37 per million British thermal units, up 2%.

Oil futures ended higher but well below the session's highs, with the Fed's projection of fewer rate cuts next year offsetting some of the bullishness from four straight weeks of declines in U.S. crude supplies.The Federal Reserve cut its policy rate by 25 basis points Wednesday afternoon, but also said it sees just 50 basis points of cuts next year, down from 100 basis points in cuts projected in September. It also lifted its forecast for inflation next year to show a slight increase in prices compared to the end of this year."Oil pared gains in the aftermarket as the Fed seemed to raise the rate forecast dot plot," The surge in the U.S. dollar did not help, he said. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY touched new highs for the session, weighing on dollar-denominated oil prices. That "overshadowed a fairly bullish" EIA report. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that domestic, commercial crude inventories edged down 900,000 barrels for the week ended Dec. 13.The report was expected to show a fall of 1.8 million barrels on average, according to a survey of analysts conducted by S&P Global Commodity Insights. Late Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute reported a crude inventory drop of 4.7 million barrels, according to a source citing the data.The EIA also reported a weekly supply climb of 2.3 million barrels for gasoline, while distillate inventories decreased by 3.2 million barrels. The S&P Global Commodity Insights survey forecast inventory gains of 2.1 million barrels for gasoline and 600,000 barrels for distillates.U.S. oil production was down by 27,000 barrels at 13.604 million barrels per day (bpd) in the latest week, the EIA said, while crude stocks at the Cushing, Okla., Nymex delivery hub edged up by 100,000 barrels to 23 million barrels.Demand for gasoline rose, with total motor gasoline supplied, a proxy for demand, at 8.927 million bpd in the latest week, from 8.810 million bpd from a week earlier. Distillate fuel oil supplied was also up at 4.498 million bpd, from 3.450 million bpd. "The most supportive element of the report was a solid draw to distillate inventories amid an apparent preholiday jump in implied demand," Matt Smith, head analyst, U.S., at Kpler, told MarketWatch.Wednesday's rise in oil prices followed back-to-back losses that traders attributed in part to disappointing data from China, the world's largest crude importer, and reports that a cease-fire in Gaza may be near.Last week, oil prices climbed on "tighter Russian sanctions risk, the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, Chinese stimulus efforts, and a potential short squeeze in the physical market," wrote strategists at Macquarie in a recent note.However, "the uncertainty on the impact and duration of the drivers listed above limited the upside, especially given the heavy balances anticipated for 2025," they said. The International Energy Agency last week forecast a sizable global supply surplus for next year.

QatarEnergy raises price of Al Shaheen crude for February 2025 futures contracts -- QatarEnergy has increased the price of Al Shaheen crude for February 2025 futures contracts, setting it at a premium of USD1.05 per barrel to Dubai prices, according to oil trading sources cited by a news agency on Wednesday. This marks a USD0.32 increase from the January loading price, which had been set at a USD0.73 per barrel premium to Dubai prices. The price adjustment reflects changing market dynamics as QatarEnergy continues to refine its pricing strategy for crude exports.
The February price was established following Qatar's sale of three cargoes of Al Shaheen crude. Two of these cargoes were sold to Glencore, while one was sold to Tutsa, with premiums ranging between USD0.9 and USD1.05 per barrel over Dubai crude prices. These transactions highlight robust demand for Al Shaheen crude, which is recognized for its quality and relevance in the regional oil market. In addition to Al Shaheen crude, QatarEnergy also finalized sales of other crude grades. The company sold a cargo of its marine crude at a premium of USD0.3 per barrel over Dubai prices and another cargo of land crude at a premium of USD0.1 per barrel over Dubai prices. Both cargoes were purchased by PTT, reflecting continued buyer interest across Qatar’s diverse crude offerings. In the broader oil market, Brent crude futures for February 2025 delivery edged up by USD0.1, or 0.07 percent, reaching USD73.26 per barrel as of 5:10 a.m. GMT. Similarly, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for January 2025 delivery rose by USD0.14, or 0.1 percent, to USD70.2 per barrel. The market also received a boost from preliminary data by the American Petroleum Institute, showing a decline of 4.7 million barrels in US inventories last week, signaling strengthening demand and tighter supply conditions.

Oil Futures Bearish on Expectations of High Inflation - The futures market remained lower on Thursday, reacting to expectations of high inflation levels for 2025, as the Federal Reserve announced Wednesday that there will be a lower number of interest rate cuts next year. â?¯ The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bp) Wednesday, in a move that was much anticipated by the market. The Federal Reserve's expectations that the range for the federal funds rate will be around 4.25%-4.50%, above its 2% target, was not well received by market participants as inflationary pressures will continue affecting the U.S. economy. Oil futures prices reversed their losses recorded this morning to settle higher on Friday, despite expectations that abundant supplies and weak demand will... The Fed kept its projection of 4.4% inflation for this year but revised it downward for 2024 to 3.9% from 4.3%, projected in September.â?¯ On Wednesday, the Energy Information Administration data showed a drop in crude inventories, lower than expected, despite a hike in exports on the week ended Dec. 13, which also contributed to the bearish mood in the oil markets. Commercial crude oil inventories in the U.S. fell by 900,000 barrel (bbl) to 421 million bbl in the week ended Dec. 13, according to EIA. Meanwhile, crude exports rose by 1.8 million bpd to 4.9 million bpd, from last week. However, gasoline stocks climbed by 2.3 million bbl to reach 222 million bbl, indicating a soft demand despite low seasonal prices.â?¯Distillate fuel inventory declined 3.2 million bbl compared to last week, reaching 118.2 million bbl, the same EIA data showed. But the perspective of sluggish global oil demand for next year, driven by China, have also added pressure to the crude benchmarks in recent days, despite the OPEC+ extending its production cuts until March, China's pledge to implement a loose monetary policy, and the announcement of additional sanctions on Russia last week. At 8:23 a.m. EST, NYMEX January WTI futures fell $0.02 to $70.56 bbl. The February Brent contract dropped $0.06 to $73.33. Downstream, NYMEX January ULSD futures rose $0.0082 to $2.2468 gallon while NYMEX January RBOB futures were at $1.9410 gallon up $0.0018.

Oil Settles Below $70 on Stronger Dollar | Rigzone -- Oil fell by almost 1% to settle below $70 a barrel as expectations for fewer interest-rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve boosted the dollar. Fed officials lowered borrowing costs as expected on Wednesday, but reined in the number of reductions they expect to make in 2025. The greenback rallied to a two-year high, making commodities priced in the currency less appealing. Also weighing on the market: China’s biggest oil refiner said gasoline demand in the nation likely peaked, even as strong petrochemical growth continues. Crude has been rangebound since the middle of October, and is set for the narrowest annual price band since 2020. Heading into 2025, traders are weighing a looming supply glut and lackluster Chinese demand with geopolitical risks, such as the chance President-elect Donald Trump moves to restrict Iranian supply. “Oil oversupply is looming, but no one wants to be short” in case there’s a supply shock or escalation in the Middle East. “But there’s not enough of a demand slowdown or economic crash pricing-in to get Brent into the low $60s yet.” WTI for January delivery, which expires Thursday, dipped 1% to $69.91 a barrel in New York. The more-active February contract fell 0.9% at $69.38 a barrel. Brent edged lower 0.7% to settle at $72.88 a barrel.

Oil prices settle at lowest in over a week after Fed rattles markets - Oil futures declined on Thursday, pulling prices for U.S. and global crude benchmarks to their lowest settlement in over a week, a day after the Federal Reserve signaled it would go much slower in cutting interest rates next year.Natural-gas futures, meanwhile, rallied to their highest price since January 2023 as winter weather forecasts lifted demand prospects for the heating fuel.

• -- West Texas Intermediate crude for January delivery CL.1 CLF25 fell 67 cents, or 1%, to end at $69.91 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on the contract's expiration day, marking the lowest front-month finish since Dec. 10, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The February contract CLG25, the new front-month, shed 64 cents, or 0.9%, to settle at $69.38 a barrel.
• -- February Brent crude BRN00 BRNG25, the global benchmark, lost 51 cents, or 0.7%, at $72.88 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, also the lowest finish since Dec. 10.
• -- January gasoline RBF25 fell 1% to $1.92 a gallon, while January heating oil HOF25 declined by 0.8% to $2.24 a gallon.
• -- Natural gas for January delivery NGF25 ended up 6.2% at $3.58 per million British thermal units, the highest since Jan. 17, 2023.

The Fed on Wednesday delivered a widely expected interest-rate cut of 25 basis points, or a quarter of a percentage point, but the central bank signaled it was on track to deliver just two more rate cuts of the same size in 2025 and forecast that inflation will remain sticky. "A less accommodative Fed in 2025 than initially expected has markets adjusting their expectations," Treasury yields jumped following the decision, with the 10-year rate BX:TMUBMUSD10Y pushing back above 4.5%. Stocks sold off sharply Wednesday but moved higher in Thursday dealings, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA up by more than 160 points after dropping by over 1,100 points Wednesday, while the S&P 500 SPX was trading 0.4% higher after falling 3%.Oil prices had been dragged lower along with equities after Wednesday's settlement as "traders reacted negatively to the Fed's 'hawkish cut' and as such, it was natural for oil to participate" in Thursday morning's modest relief rally in stocks, said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.The "discord" among Bank of England policy makers at their December meeting, meanwhile, "was seen as a dovish-leaning development ... and contributed to the premarket relief rally in risk assets," he told MarketWatch.However, the relief rally in equities lost some steam in Thursday dealings and oil turned lower "as the economic implications of the Fed's considerably less dovish tone coming out of the December meeting continue to be assessed," Richey said.In a newsletter posted early Thursday, he noted that with the "risk of restrictive high interest rates lasting well into 2025, an imminent economic recession looming, the thesis that oil is more likely to fall to trade with a $50/barrel handle remains much more realistic than $80-$90/barrel oil prices in the months ahead."Still, some analysts were upbeat about the outlook for oil prices in the new year."All ducks are in a row for a beautiful oil market in 2025, with the Trump administration certain to throttle Iranian exports and OPEC dead set to support prices," said Manish Raj, managing partner at Velandera Energy Partners. "Shale players have upped their orders of champagne this holiday season, with profit opportunity looking good," he said.Supporting oil prices is the "noticeable slowdown in U.S. production growth, with current oil production up only 2.9% over 2023," Raj said, adding that production growth is "constrained by permitting delays, well declines, and oilfield service cost inflation." That said, domestic output was at a record high of 13.6 million barrels a day for the week that ended Dec. 13, according to the Energy Information Administration.In other energy news Thursday, natural-gas prices rallied as predictions of an Arctic blast reaching the eastern U.S. have "heightened expectations for increased heating demand, driving near-term bullish sentiment" in the natural-gas market, said Brian Swan, senior commodity analyst at Schneider Electric, in a daily note.The EIA on Thursday, meanwhile, reported that U.S. supplies of the fuel declined by 125 billion cubic feet for the week that ended Dec. 13. Analysts surveyed by S&P Global Commodity Insights expected a fall of 122 bcf, on average.

Oil Futures Rose, Despite Sluggish Demand and Strong USD -- Oil futures prices reversed their losses recorded this morning to settle higher on Friday, despite expectations that abundant supplies and weak demand will continue putting downward pressure on the two main crude benchmarks next year. But a new statement from President-elect Trump warning that his administration will impose trade tariffs to European Union countries if they do not buy more U.S. oil and gas, changed the bearish sentiment Friday that dominated the market since Thursday. "I told the European Unionâ?¯that they must make up their tremendous deficit with the United States by the large-scale purchase of our oil and gas. Otherwise, it is TARIFFS all the way!!!," Trump said in a post on his social media site Truth Social, The Guardian reported Friday. The second term of the Trump administration is expected to further ignite the trade war between the U.S. and China by imposing more tariffs to the Asian country. Trump has also threatened to set 25% trade tariffs on all imports from its main trade partners, Mexico and Canada, starting next year as well. However, those measures are expected to have a big impact on U.S. consumers and consequently on inflation, which the Federal Reserve confirmed this week that it will remain around a range of 4.25% to 4.50%. Additionally, the perception that oil global demand willâ?¯remain sluggish next year has been reflected in the recent volatility of the crude markets as China keeps failing to boost its domestic consumption. â?¯ Crude prices this week were alsoâ?¯affected by a stronger dollar. Friday, the greenback rose 0.79% to 108.29 against a basket of foreign currencies, which include the euro, yen, Canadian dollar and Swiss franc, among others. At 3:21 p.m. EST, NYMEX WTI futures contract for February delivery rose $0.17 to $69.85 bbl and the February Brent crude contract edged up $0.09 to $73.29.â?¯ January RBOB futures rose $0.0186 to $1.9414 gallon while ULSD futures for January delivery fell $0.0011 to $2.2366 gallon.

Oil steady as markets weigh Fed rate cut expectations, Chinese demand (Reuters) - Oil prices settled little changed on Friday as markets weighed Chinese demand and interest rate-cut expectations after data showed cooling U.S. inflation. Brent crude futures closed up 6 cents, or 0.08%, at $72.94 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 8 cents, or 0.12%, at $69.46 per barrel. Both benchmarks ended the week down about 2.5%. The U.S. dollar retreated from a two-year high, but was heading for a third consecutive week of gains, after data showed cooling U.S. inflation two days after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates but trimmed its outlook for rate cuts next year. A weaker dollar makes oil cheaper for holders of other currencies, while rate cuts could boost oil demand. Inflation slowed in November, pushing Wall Street's main indexes higher in volatile trading. "The fears over the Fed abandoning support for the market with its interest rate schemes have gone out the window," "There were concerns around the market about the demand outlook, especially as it relates to China, and then if we were going to lose the monetary support from the Fed, it was sort of a one-two punch," Chinese state-owned refiner Sinopec said in its annual energy outlook on Thursday that China's crude imports could peak as soon as 2025 and the country's oil consumption would peak by 2027, as demand for diesel and gasoline weakens. OPEC+ needed supply discipline to perk up prices and soothe jittery market nerves over continuous revisions of its demand outlook. OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers, recently cut its growth forecast for 2024 global oil demand for a fifth straight month. JPMorgan sees the oil market moving from balance in 2024 to a surplus of 1.2 million barrels per day in 2025, as the bank forecasts non-OPEC+ supply increasing by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025 and OPEC output remaining at current levels. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump said the European Union may face tariffs if the bloc does not cut its growing deficit with the U.S. by making large oil and gas trades with the world's largest economy. In a move that could pare supply, G7 countries are considering ways to tighten the price cap on Russian oil, such as with an outright ban or by lowering the price threshold, Bloomberg reported on Thursday. Russia has circumvented the $60 per barrel cap imposed in 2022 following the invasion of Ukraine through the use of its "shadow fleet" of ships, which the EU and Britain have targeted with further sanctions in recent days. Money managers raised their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to Dec. 17, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday.

Revolutionary Guards Tighten Grip on Iran’s Oil Exports -The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Iran’s most powerful armed force defending the regime, has increased their influence over Iranian oil exports and is estimated to control half of these, Western officials and Iranian insiders have told Reuters. Despite U.S. sanctions on the Iranian oil industry and exports, the Islamic Republic continues to export an estimated more than 1 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil, mostly to China. During his first term in office, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump tore up the so-called Iran nuclear agreement, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and re-imposed sanctions on Iran’s oil industry and exports in 2018. President Joe Biden and his Administration, while keeping all sanctions on Iran in place, haven’t monitored strictly the compliance of the sanctions as they were keen to keep oil flowing amidst crises elsewhere such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In the meantime, the Revolutionary Guard Corps has expanded its influence over Iranian oil exports, including in logistics, front companies, and the shadow fleet shipping the crude under the radar, according to numerous sources who spoke to Reuters.Three years ago, the Revolutionary Guards controlled about 20% of Iran’s oil exports—now that share has surged to up to 50%, Western security experts and officials told Reuters.Earlier this year, Iran boosted its oil exports to six-year highs.However, exports are estimated to have slowed in recent weeks, as Iran’s crude oil going to China has been priced at its narrowest discount to Brent in five years as Iranian cargo loadings slumped in October due to the heightened regional tensions in the Middle East. Over the weekend, Iranian media reported that Iran’s oil exports to China slumped in November by 524,000 bpd from October. At 1.31 million bpd, the Islamic Republic’s exports to its main buyer were the lowest in four months in November. Iran is ready to face possible additional sanctions on its oil exports when President-elect Trump takes office early next year, Iranian Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad was quoted as saying last month.

Trump And Israel Can't Wait To Start Bombing Iran - Caitlin Johnstone = Both Israel and the incoming Trump administration are reportedly eager to start bombing Iran ASAP now that Assad’s out of the way.Israeli media reports that the IDF now sees airstrikes on Iran as much easier to execute now that its pilots don’t have to worry about Syrian air defenses along the way, while The Wall Street Journal reports that the Trump team is weighing its options for airstrikes on Iran to prevent it from obtaining a nuclear weapon (which there’s no evidence Iran is currently trying to do).A new article from The Washington Post titled “Syria’s collapse and Israeli attacks leave Iran exposed” reports that “Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has signaled a desire to capitalize on gains against Hamas and Hezbollah and take on Tehran more aggressively under a new U.S. administration.” The article notes that Trump has expressed openness to war with Iran, saying that “anything can happen”.This comes as the al-Qaeda affiliates who captured Damascus assure the worldthat Syria will no longer allow itself to be used as a launchpad for attacks against Israel. After Assad was ousted I got a bunch of weirdos in my comments claiming that Israel was somehow sad about this development, because Israel and Assad were secretly on the same side. This is one of the dumbest conspiracy theories I’ve been asked to believe in a long time, and I was asked to believe it not by crazy QAnoners or the liberal mass media but by a sector of pro-Palestine leftoids who also love NATO.

US Says It Launched Airstrike on Houthi 'Command and Control Facility' in Yemen - -US Central Command said Monday that it launched an airstrike on Yemen, claiming to target a Houthi “command and control” facility in the capital Sanaa.“On Dec. 16 Yemen time, US Central Command (CENTCOM) forces conducted a precision airstrike against a key command and control facility operated by Iran-backed Houthis within Houthi-controlled territory in Sanaa, Yemen,” CENTCOM said in a press release.“The targeted facility was a hub for coordinating Houthi operations, such as attacks against US Navy warships and merchant vessels in the Southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden,” the press release added.A correspondent for Al Mayadeen in Yemen said the strike targeted the Ministry of Defense in Sanna and described it as “American-British aggression,” although the US gave no indication the UK was involved. A day earlier, Yemeni media reported joint US-British strikes in Yemen’s northern Hajjah province.The latest US attack on Yemen comes amid reports that Israel isconsidering launching significant strikes against the Houthis, who have continued to launch attacks against Israel and Israel-linked shipping despite a nearly year-long US bombing campaign.The Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, said on Monday that Yemeni forces launched a missile at Israel. “[In] response to the ongoing massacres against our brothers in Gaza … The missile force carried out a military operation targeting a military target of the Israeli enemy in the occupied Yaffa area, using a Palestine 2 hypersonic ballistic missile,” the group said in a statement, according to The Cradle.In January 2024, President Biden launched a new bombing campaign against the Houthis in defense of Israeli shipping. The UK joined the US for several rounds of significant strikes on Yemen, but the bombings only escalated the situation in the Red Sea as the Houthis began targeting American and British shipping in response.

Turkey, Allies Violate Extended Ceasefire With Syrian Kurds, Dozens Killed - On Tuesday, the US State Department announced the extension of the ceasefire between Syria’s Kurdish SDF and Turkey’s allies. The initial ceasefire expired, but the new one was supposed to continue to the end of the week.It doesn’t seem to have lasted even a whole day, however, with Turkey and their allies carrying out multiple attacks against Kurdish forces in and around the northern city of Kobani and the town of Manbij. Heavy fighting has been reported around Manbij, with at least 21 pro-Turkish fighters reported killed, and an unspecified number of SDF members and affiliates with the Manbij Military Council also killed in the clashes.Turkey was said to have provided air support for the Manbij attack, andartillery fire was also reported across the Aleppo Province. With Turkey also reported amassing troops along the Aleppo border in recent days, a broader military operation is seen as very likely.Turkey’s direct involvement in violating the ceasefire has been substantial today. In addition to backing and participating in the Manbij fighting with air support, Turkish drones reportedly attacked Kobani FM, a Kurdish radio station in Kobani. The radio station was damaged, but there were no casualties in that strike.Turkey and their allies, collectively known as the Syrian National Army (SNA), hold territory in Syria’s northeast, but have gained considerable influence having backed the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in the takeover of most of the country. HTS officials are already suggesting thatstamping out Kurdish separatists is a near-term goal, and that Turkish involvement in Syria’s reconstruction is a priority.US officials have been trying to reassure the Kurds that they don’t face any immediate threats to existence from Turkey’s allies, despite Turkish officials saying the “elimination” of the SDF’s largest faction, the YPG, is their strategic goal.

Israel Continues to Flaunt Ceasefire, Military Demolishes Homes in Southern Lebanon - Now into the third week of the Israeli ceasefire with Lebanon, the situation seems no more settled than it had been. Israeli forces continue to operate across southern Lebanon, their drones carry out attacks, and Israeli military bulldozers are now conducting operations to demolish civilian homes in southern towns and villages.The 60-day ceasefire is supposed to see Israel withdraw its troops from Lebanon by the end of that time. Though some Israeli troops have been redeployed, others remain, and are continuing operations. The reports from the coastal town of Naqoura are that Israeli troops have fired bursts of machine gun fire, and the bulldozers have destroyed multiple homes.Naqoura is in the Tyre District, and only about 4 km from the border crossing into Israel. Israel has been keen to establish a “buffer zone” inside southern Lebanon and those efforts seem not to have stopped even though the war is supposed to be over.Other demolitions of homes were reported in the village of Kfarkila, where what few homes were left standing during the war are being leveled. Kfarkila is also extremely close to the border.Much of Israel’s military operations in southern Lebanon during the war appeared to also be designed around the creation of this buffer zone.Reports are that Israel fired around 200 white phosphorus bombs in the south during the past year.White phosphorus would be legal if used as a smokescreen for troops, but it’s use as an incendiary weapon would violate international law. There is significant evidence that Israel was using the phosphorus bombs to clear out populated areas. Indeed, many of those white phosphorus strikes were against Lebanese towns and villages also in this desired buffer zone.

Haaretz: Israeli Soldiers Kill Civilians and Count Them as Terrorists - Israeli soldiers stationed in the Netzarim Corridor in the Gaza Strip regularly shoot and kill Palestinian civilians but count them as “terrorists,” Haaretz reported on Wednesday, citing testimony from Israeli commanders and other soldiers.The Netzarim Corridor is a strip of land that separates northern Gaza from central and southern Gaza, where Israeli troops have demolished virtually every building and established military outposts. The Haaretzreport says the IDF has designated the area a “kill zone,” meaning any Palestinians who try to cross a certain line are shot and killed even if they’re unarmed.“The forces in the field call it ‘the line of dead bodies,'” a commander in the IDF’s Division 252 told Haaretz. “After shootings, bodies are not collected, attracting packs of dogs who come to eat them. In Gaza, people know that wherever you see these dogs, that’s where you must not go.”A recently discharged Division 252 officer said, “For the division, the kill zone extends as far as a sniper can see. We’re killing civilians there who are then counted as terrorists.”The officer said Israeli units compete to see how many people they can kill. “The IDF spokesperson’s announcements about casualty numbers have turned this into a competition between units. If Division 99 kills 150 [people], the next unit aims for 200,” he said. In one instance, Israeli troops massacred 200 Palestinians, and only 10 were confirmed as being “known Hamas operatives.” But the IDF announced they were all militants. “No one questioned the public announcement about killing hundreds of militants,” a Division 252 officer said.

HRW: Israel Is Committing Crime of Extermination and Acts of Genocide - Human Rights Watch said in a report published on Thursday that Israel is committing the crime of extermination and acts of genocide by depriving the civilian population of Gaza of the necessary amount of water to survive. HRW said in a press release that its 179-page report found “that Israeli authorities have intentionally deprived Palestinians in Gaza of access to safe water for drinking and sanitation needed for basic human survival.”“Israeli authorities and forces cut off and later restricted piped water to Gaza; rendered most of Gaza’s water and sanitation infrastructure useless by cutting electricity and restricting fuel; deliberately destroyed and damaged water and sanitation infrastructure and water repair materials; and blocked the entry of critical water supplies,” HRW said.The report found the restrictions on water have likely caused thousands of deaths. “Doctors and nurses told Human Rights Watch that they had seen numerous infants, children, and adults die from a combination of malnutrition, dehydration, and disease,” the report reads.HRW said it spoke with 66 Palestinians in Gaza, who discussed the near-impossibility of securing water for themselves and their families. “If we can’t find drinkable water, we drink the seawater,” one father displaced in Rafah told the organization in December 2023. “It happened to me many times when I had to drink the seawater. You don’t understand how much we are suffering.”The report found that, on average, Palestinians in Gaza live with 2-9 liters of water per day for their drinking, cooking, and personal washing needs, far below the 50-100 liters per day the World Health Organization (WHO) says in the minimum people need to meet their most basic needs. In protracted emergency situations, the WHO says a minimum amount of 15 liters of water per person per day for drinking and washing is needed.HRW said Israeli authorities have “deliberately inflicted conditions of life calculated to bring about the destruction of part of the population in Gaza.” By doing so, Israeli officials are “responsible for the crime against humanity of extermination and for acts of genocide.”HRW said this “pattern of conduct, coupled with statements suggesting that some Israeli officials wished to destroy Palestinians in Gaza, may amount to the crime of genocide. “The HRW report comes after Amnesty International released a 296-page report that concluded Israel is committing genocide in Gaza. The US government, which is implicated in Israel’s crimes due to the huge amount of US military aid to Israel, denied Amnesty’s conclusion and said on Thursday that it “disagreed” with HRW’s report.“When it comes to a determination of something like genocide, the legal standard is just incredibly high, and so the finding in this scenario we just disagree with,” State Department spokesman Vedant Patel told reporters.

Israel sets fire to intensive care unit at Kamal Adwan Hospital in Gaza – Middle East Monitor Israeli military vehicles targeted Kamal Adwan Hospital in northern Gaza igniting a fire in its intensive care unit (ICU), according to the hospital’s Director, Hussam Abu Safiya. Abu Safiya said: “We were surprised by the entry of vehicles and bulldozers into the vicinity of the hospital, which was preceded by a terrifying targeting of citizens’ homes in the vicinity. We heard gunfire and shells without being able to do anything.” In a video recorded outside the smoke-filled ICU, he detailed the attack: “Sudden and crazy gunfire was fired at the hospital with all kinds of weapons, and the occupation deliberately targeted the intensive care unit by firing at it clearly.” Abu Safiya revealed that patients on ventilators were evacuated just moments before the fire caused by Israel engulfed the ICU. “We miraculously evacuated the patients who were on ventilators from the intensive care unit and the fire broke out inside it,” he said, noting that it is “the only department in the northern Gaza Strip.” He described the situation at Kamal Adwan Hospital, particularly in the ICU, as “catastrophic and still dangerous,” with fires still raging as there is little by way of equipment to stop them. He described how the fires were brought under control using the blankets and the little drinking water that remained in the hospital. Israeli occupation forces had already targeted the hospital’s water tanks and network. “The intensive care unit is out of service and the situation is catastrophic. We have appealed to the world for more than 75 days to provide protection for the health system and its workers, but there is no response.” The hospital faces daily attacks by Israeli occupation forces. On Monday, Israeli quadcopter drones struck the hospital’s generators, cutting power and causing further damage to the ICU, putting patients’ lives at risk. Since 5 October, Israel has launched a large-scale ground operation in northern Gaza, tightening its siege on the area. Palestinians accuse Israel of seeking to occupy the area and forcibly displace its residents. Since then, insufficient humanitarian aid, including food, medicine and fuel, has been allowed into the area, leaving the remaining population there on the verge of imminent famine.

Israeli attacks on hospital knock last intensive care unit in northern Gaza out of service | Middle East Eye- The Israeli army has launched a new set of attacks on the Kamal Adwan hospital, sparking a fire that rendered the last functioning intensive care unit (ICU) in northern Gaza out of service. Overnight on Tuesday, the hospital endured Israeli shelling, as well as the use of exploding robots near its grounds, Al Jazeera reporter Moath al-Kahlout reported. Local media reported that Kahlout has since been detained by the Israeli army in Jabalia.Kamal Adwan has been the focus of military efforts by Israel since its war on Gaza began in October 2023.The hospital is an obstacle to Israel's plan to ethnically cleanse the northern half of the besieged strip, as it is where around 65,000 to 75,000 people have sought refuge. At least 2,500 Palestinians have been killed and 10,000 others wounded in Israel's most recent offensive in northern Gaza, while hundreds more have been abducted and thousands forcibly expelled. Eid Sabbah, the director of nursing at Kamal Adwan Hospital, told Al Jazeera that it was a night “full of horror” at the medical facility. Israeli bulldozers began surrounding the area around the hospital, destroying streets and infrastructure.Quadcopter drones also targeted the medical compound and its vicinity.Eight Palestinians were killed on the Tuesday evening attack on the Battah family home west of Kamal Adwan Hospital, according to civil defence forces. “Many have been wounded and many are still under the rubble,” Sabbah said, adding that the attacks filled the ICU with smoke. As a result of the shortage in resources and necessities, 74 injured patients were treated “in a very primitive way”.On Wednesday morning, continued Israeli shelling sparked a fire in the hospital's ICU. The director of the northern Gaza hospital, Hussam Abu Safiya, spoke about the fire that has since been extinguished by hand."Sudden and crazy gunfire targeted the hospital with all kinds of weapons. The occupation deliberately targeted the intensive care unit by firing at it clearly," he said. "Now the intensive care unit is out of service and the situation is catastrophic. We have appealed to the world for more than 75 days to provide protection for the health system and its workers, but there is no response."

Report: Netanyahu Orders IDF To Occupy Syria's Mount Hermon Until End of 2025 - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has ordered the Israeli military to occupy territory it captured on Mount Hermon in Syria following the downfall of Bashar al-Assad until at least the end of 2025,Israel’s Channel 12 has reported.After Assad fled Syria on December 8, Israel invaded southern Syria, taking control of a buffer zone that separated the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights from the rest of Syria’s territory. The Israeli military has also captured territory beyond the buffer zone.The Channel 12 report said the at least year-long occupation of southern Syria is significant because it essentially opens up a “new front” for the Israeli Defense Forces.Netanyahu visited Israeli troops on Mount Hermon on Tuesday and made it clear they weren’t going anywhere anytime soon, saying the occupation would continue until a “new arrangement” is made.

Saudi Driver Plows Into German Christmas Market, Kills at Least Five and Injures 200 - A Saudi Arabian citizen reportedly drove a rented car into a crowd of people at a Christmas market in the German city of Magdeburg on Friday night. At least five people have been killed, including a child, with over 200 wounded.According to officials, the driver has been identified as a 50-year-old Saudi Arabian citizen who first arrived in Germany in 2006, he was recognized as a refugee by Berlin ten years later. He has since been working as a small town psychiatry and psychotherapy consultant 25 miles south of where the attack took place. The driver has been arrestedand officials tentatively believe he is working alone. German media is calling the suspect Taleb A, prosecutors have confirmed his identity as Taleb Al Abdulmohsen.According to Reuters, Taleb A’s social media posts “indicated support for anti-Islam and far-right parties, including the Alternative for Germany (AfD), as well as criticism of Germany for its handling of Saudi refugees.” German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser explained authorities can “say with certainty that the perpetrator was obviously Islamophobic.” Per spokesmen for Magdeburg and the regional government, of the over 200 victims in the deliberate attack, 40 have been injured severely. Authorities are still working to establish a motive, Reiener Haseloff, the Saxony-Anhalt governor said. Haseloff added, “this is a terrible event, especially now in the days leading up to Christmas.”

Ukraine assassinates Russian chemical weapons chief in Moscow bombing – — Ukrainian operatives on Tuesday killed a leading Russian military official in a daring bomb attack in Moscow.Lieutenant-General Igor Kirillov, commander of the nuclear, biological and chemical forces of the Russian army, died in a blast as he was heading out of a residential block in Moscow, the Russian Investigative Committee said in a statement.An explosive device was hidden in an electric scooter parked nearby. Kirillov’s aide also died in the attack, the investigative committee said, announcing a criminal investigation. Video footage obtained by POLITICO corroborates that version of events.Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) claimed responsibility for Kirillov's murder, a Ukrainian law enforcement official told POLITICO after being granted anonymity to discuss the sensitive topic."Kirillov was a war criminal and an absolutely legitimate target since he gave orders to use banned chemical weapons against the Ukrainian military. Such an inglorious end awaits all who kill Ukrainians. Retribution for war crimes is inevitable," the official said.Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of Russia's Security Council, said later on Tuesday that Russia will retaliate for Kirillov's assassination."Everything must be done to destroy those who ordered the murder of General Kirillov, this military-political leadership of Ukraine," Medvedev said during the Russian state defense procurement meeting.A few hours before the attack, the SBU charged Kirillov in absentia for ordering the massive use of banned chemical weapons against the Ukrainian army on the eastern and southern fronts of the battlefield.“Since the beginning of the full-scale war, following Kirillov’s orders, the Russian army used different types of banned chemical munitions against Ukraine more than 4,800 times,” the SBU said in a statement Monday.

Moscow Vows Response After Ukraine Fires More US and British Missiles Into Russia - Ukrainian forces fired six US-provided Army Tactical Missile Systems(ATACMS) and four British Storm Shadow missiles into Russia’s Rostov Oblast on Wednesday, and Moscow is vowing it will respond.According to Russian media, the NATO-supported attack targeted a large chemical plant in Rostov. “These actions by the Kiev regime supported by Western handlers won’t be left unanswered,” the Russian Defense Ministry said.The ministry said that all of the ATACMS were shot down by Russian air defenses, and three out of four of the Storm Shadows were intercepted. One of the missiles fell and caused damage on the grounds of the chemical plant.President Biden gave Ukraine the greenlight to use US and British missiles in long-range strikes on Russian territory despite Moscow making it clear the move would risk nuclear escalation. Since then, Ukraine has launched several attacks on Russian territory using Western-provided missiles.President-elect Donald Trump has called Biden’s decision to sign off on the long-range strikes “stupid” and suggested he could reverse the move.The advanced missiles require intelligence from the US or its allies to be fired, meaning the attacks are directly supported by NATO countries. Earlier this year, a German military leak revealed British soldiers are “on the ground” in Ukraine helping fire Storm Shadows.In response to previous ATACMS and Storm Shadow strikes in Russia, the Russian military launched a new intermediate-range ballistic missile into Ukraine known as the Oreshnik. The missile was believed not to be carrying explosives since little damage was done, and Putin referred to it as a “test launch.” A strike with a conventionally armed Oreshnik could do major damage, as Putin has suggested the missile could replace nuclear weapons as Russia’s deterrent.

Zelensky Admits Ukraine Cannot Drive Russia Out of Crimea and Donbas - -- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has conceded that Ukraine does not have the ability to drive Russian forces out of the territory Russia has captured since the 2022 invasion, as well as Crimea, which Russia has controlled since 2014.“We cannot give up our territories. The Ukrainian constitution forbids us to do so. De facto, these territories are now controlled by the Russians. We do not have the strength to recover them,” Zelensky told the French newspaper Le Parisien.“We can only count on diplomatic pressure from the international community to force Putin to sit down at the negotiating table,” the Ukrainian leader added. Military situation in Ukraine on December 18, 2024 (SouthFront.press) Zelensky has long maintained that his war goals include driving Russian troops out of Russian-controlled Ukraine, which includes about 80% of the eastern Donbas region and parts of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. A “peace formula” pushed by Zelensky called for a full Russian withdrawal before peace talks could even happen.A potential peace deal that was on the table in March and April of 2022 would have involved a Russian withdrawal from the territory it had captured following the invasion in exchange for Ukrainian neutrality. But the deal was discouraged by the US and its allies and fell apart. Later that year, Moscow formally annexed Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia, and it now considers all of the oblasts, even the Ukrainian-controlled areas, a part of Russia.Back in June, Russian President Vladimir Putin laid out Moscow’s conditions for peace, which included a Ukrainian withdrawal from the Russian speaking oblasts he considers part of Russia. British Defense Minister Says UK Forces Could Be Sent to Ukraine for Training - British Defense Minister John Healey has suggested that the UK could send troops to Ukraine for a training mission.During a visit to Ukraine, Healey told The Times that the UK would work to improve its training of Ukrainian troops and wouldn’t rule out sending trainers to Ukraine.“We [need to] make it easier to the Ukrainians to access and we [need to] work with the Ukrainians to help them motivate and mobilize more recruits,” Healey said.When asked if that could involve sending troops to Ukraine, Healey said, “We will look wherever we can to respond to what the Ukrainians want. They are the ones fighting.” Russia has repeatedly warned against Western countries sending troops to Ukraine for training purposes, saying any NATO soldiers would be legitimate targets of the Russian military. Leaks have revealed that British soldiers have been on the ground in Ukraine throughout the war, but they have been unofficial, covert deployments. Earlier this year, a German military leak revealed that British soldiers are in Ukraine helping fire Storm Shadow missiles, which recently began striking targets inside the Russian mainland, marking a major escalation of the proxy war. The Discord leaks revealed that as of March 2023, 97 NATO special operations soldiers were inside Ukraine, including 50 British soldiers. In April 2022, The Times reported that British Special Air Service soldiers were in Ukraine training Ukrainians on anti-tank weapons.

UK government approves $4.6-billion takeover of Royal Mail by a Czech billionaire (AP) — Britain’s government gave the go-ahead Monday for the sale of Royal Mail’s parent company to a Czech billionaire, paving the way for the postal service to pass into foreign ownership for the first time in its 500-year history. Authorities confirmed Monday that the 3.6 billion-pound ($4.6 billion) takeover of Royal Mail’s owner, International Distribution Services, by billionaire Daniel Kretinsky’s EP Group, can go ahead. Kretinsky and IDS agreed to the deal in May but had been waiting for official approval under national security laws because of the importance of the postal service in the U.K. The service will remain headquartered in the U.K. and as part of the deal, Britain’s government will retain a so-called “golden share” in the service, meaning it will need to approve any key changes to Royal Mail’s ownership, headquarters location and tax residency. Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds said the move was a “good deal for the U.K.” “We have negotiated something which secures the long-term future of Royal Mail and gives it the fresh start that we need,” he said. Royal Mail, one of the U.K.'s oldest institutions, began in the 1500s as a service exclusively for the monarch and the royal court. It became a public postal service in the 1600s.